Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Tue Dec 30 1997 00:03 - ID#224149)
Was the time of losing last year the time of regonition or the play of common seed?Away to see The Wizard Of Newfoundland.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 00:05 - ID#335190)
@ "Mushrooms" (The citizen is feed horse shit, and kept in the dark)


***A Workaholic Economy*** Paul Wallich

For the first century or so of the industrial revolution, increased productivity led to decreases in working hours. Employees who had been putting in 12-hour days, six days a week, found their time on the job shrinking to 10 hours daily, then finally, to eight hours five days a week. Only a generation ago social planners worried about what people would do with all this new-found free time. In the U.S., at least, it seems they need not have bothered.

Professional and managerial employees supply the most obvious lesson along these lines. Once people are on salary, their cost to the firm is the same whether they spend 35 hours a week in the office or 70. Diminishing returns may eventually set in as overworked employees lose efficiency or leave for more arable pastures. But in the short run, the employer's incentive is clear.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 00:11 - ID#287207)
6pak: I thought you were making a comment on peyote puffers. During the last mail strike when the guys were on TV complaining that sometimes they had to work 8 hour days, I recall that the average office worker was supposed to be working 45 hours a week and that this contrasted favourably with Ontario high school teachers who were in the classroom an average of 15 hours a week--on those weeks when they work.

silver plate
(Tue Dec 30 1997 00:12 - ID#289468)
A bank summary
Just got in after a tough day on the golf course. Anybody have a summary

on what kind of arm twisting or what kinds of carrots were offered to our banks to throw good money after bad? Rolling over a bad loan at a higher interest rate when the old loan at a lower rate can't be paid seems like preverse logic. I dont't get it.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 00:12 - ID#287277)
For the chaps who trade....we wish you a Grssenwahn trading year ! That'll be Happy!
Erdman's "The Year Zero", FT Weekend Dec 27/28

A group of Asian finance ministers blame Europe for their current economic plight and colonial past. They hired legendary currency dealer Gerhardt Grssenwahn to kill the euro. Grssenwahn and his assistant, Suzi Chang, have limitless funds for an assault on the French franc. The attack will begin on December 7, 1998.

They set up headquarters in a Swiss bank so private it has an unlisted number, and are offered trading cubicles after Grssenwahn utters four words Sultan of Brunei. Suzi assures the Swiss banker, You are fortunate that the Swiss franc is a neutral currency. As you know, Gerhardt takes no prisoners.

8am on Monday, Dec 7, 1998, Gerhardt and Suzi arrive at bank I love the smell of the trading room in the morning says Grssenwahn. Grssenwahn is going to take out the Irish punt ( over valued he thinks ) as an appetizer.

And doesnt this remind you of our own traders, brothers Cherokee and EB?
Gerhardt was at ease with her elliptical speech. Conventional speech patterns had begun to annoy him 25 years ago. He could not spend long in a room with a person who insisted on subject-verb-object.

Is this a story or what? Imagine, unlimited funds to do what you do best!

The conclusion? A fortnight later, the small group that had masterminded the killing of the euro gathered again at the Hyatt Regency in Hong Kong. Grssenwahl was still trying to purge his body of the adrenaline and could hardly begin to grapple with the $400m that he personally had made in the past two weeks. In the distance he saw the Star Ferry returning from one of its short journeys to Kowloon. He counted the people in the room, nine including himself and Suzi, and laughed within at the strange coincidence. Kowloon means Nine Dragons. These nine dragons had slain the euro.

OK guys. It CAN be done. Go get 'em. Good Luck!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 00:17 - ID#335190)
Vanishing Jobs

Some business leaders are concerned, but politicians seem strangely deaf to what is likely to be the most explosive issue of the decade.

"Will there be a job for me in the new Information Age?"

This steady decline of mass labor threatens to undermine the very foundations of the modern American state. For nearly 200 years, the heart of the social contract and the measure of individual human worth have centered on the value of each person's labor. How does society even begin to adjust to a new era in which labor is devalued or even rendered worthless?

The second Achilles' heel for business--and one never talked about--is the effect on capital accumulation when vast numbers of employees are let go or hired on a temporary basis so that employers can avoid paying out benefits--especially pension fund benefits. As it turns out, pension funds, now worth more than $5 trillion in the United States alone, keep much of the capitalist system afloat. For nearly 25 years, the pension funds of millions of workers have served as a forced savings pool that has financed capital investments.

Organized labor has been weakened by 40 years of automation, a decline in union membership, and a growing temp workforce that is difficult to organize. In meetings with union officials, I have found that they are universally reluctant to deal with the notion that mass labor--the very basis of trade unionism--will continue to decline and may even disappear altogether.

Several union leaders confided to me off the record that the labor movement is in survival mode and trying desperately to prevent a rollback of legislation governing basic rights to organize. Union leaders cannot conceive that they may have to rethink their mission in order to accommodate a fundamental change in the nature of work. But the unions' continued reluctance to grapple with a technology revolution that might eliminate mass labor could spell their own elimination from American life over the next three or four decades.

Dr. R
(Tue Dec 30 1997 00:17 - ID#272267)

You posted this and it sounded interesting, but couldn't find anything
from Tolerant1at 22:37 on 12/28/97. Can you or Tolerant1 help?

Date: Mon Dec 29 1997 22:28
a.j. ( @Tolerant 1 re: Your post of 22:37-28 Dec. ) ID#256201:
Please email me so I can trade info with you. I feel what
I have to say should not be on a public forum at this time. Thanks

thanks much

Dr. R.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 00:21 - ID#316409)
@ SIlver plate..........Good after bad
I hate to say this cause the GoldBugs will think I've been converted, but the reason for the bail out loans is to prevent the total meltdown which would ultimately take the U.S. financial sector down with the rest of teh world, shouls it be allowed to continue without intervention.

Two things stand between worldwide deflationary collapse, and U.S. First thing...IMF, second thing...the mighty U.S. economy. If we don't help bail em, we're history too eventually, at least in comparison to our current ultra rosy economic conditions.

( My aplogies to all GoldBugs for ALMOST echoing some of yer sentiments )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 00:29 - ID#335190)
Peyote puffers? Good is it? : ) : ) : )

Teachers, are the master's of the cause, making the citizen a mushroom.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 00:36 - ID#335190)
Selby @ Peyote Puffers & HEMP (What is your take on Hemp?)
December 29, 1997
Farmers expect to receive go-ahead to plant hemp

SARNIA, Ont. ( CP ) - If everything goes according to plan, farmers could be planting seeds this spring for Ontario's first commercial hemp crop in 50 years.

Hemp, grown for fibre and oil, is related to - but not the same as - other cannabis plants grown for the production of marijuana.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 00:38 - ID#301318)
6pak (@ "Mushrooms" (The citizen is feed horse shit, and kept in the dark))

Its called "The Paradigm Shift"

I am a witness, it has happened to me. I used to be in the union until I was offered a modest carrot to move into another division ( non-union ) as management. Now I work on 24 hours call, work any hour as needed on a salary. Our division has doubled its number of employees in the last year alone. All as so called managers. My work now includes management responsibilities as well as technician/secretary/clerk & janitor responsibilities. Blue collars need not apply.
The union is watching very closely!

I may as well start my own business and take the risks and satisfaction.

The Hatt
(Tue Dec 30 1997 00:43 - ID#294232)
The waiving of the U.S. flag is an event that really makes me wonder
when it is done on the bases of economic power. It seems that many U.S.
citizens have no clue as to the vulnerability of their made in the U.S.
economy that has been built on debt. The true strength will soon be
measured when foreign interests decide to sell treasuries and the safe
haven thinking is altered! I am not a U.S. basher!I am just realistic
and unbiased when it comes to your real position in the world economic
order. How does one justify the logic of printing non backed currency
at a rate well above normal standards and not expect some form of reaction to the hidden infationary trend?

silver plate
(Tue Dec 30 1997 00:43 - ID#289468)
On behalf of all goldbugs your apoligies accepted
LGB2: I always suspected your empathy with gold bugs, it just needed a little prodding to bring it forth. Thank you for your timely answer to
my question. So the bankers are saying "keep the ship afloat at any cost"

(Tue Dec 30 1997 00:47 - ID#287277)
6pak, here is one man's answer, ..what do you think of this?
he current monetary system can sustain both full employment and price stability over the short and long run. It will be shown that:

1 ) Unemployment equates to the Federal budget deficit being too small, and
2 ) The value of a currency is determined by the prices paid by that government.

The government has embraced two primary economic objectives: price stability and full employment. Ironically, it has chosen a monetary and fiscal policy that utilizes excess capacity, including unemployment, to maintain price stability, obviating the possibility of simultaneous achievement of both objectives. The focus of this analysis is on an entirely different option in which the government assumes the role of employer of last resort ( ELR ) , eliminating involuntary unemployment,
and price stability is maintained by the government restraining the price it pays for the proposed supplementary ELR labor pool.

The Employer of Last Resort ( ELR ) Alternative

The U.S. Government can proceed directly to zero unemployment by offering a public service job to anyone who wants one as a supplement to the current budget. Furthermore, by fixing the wage paid under this ELR program at a level that does not disrupt existing labor markets, i.e., a wage level close to the existing minimum wage, substantive price stability can be expected.

The ELR program allows for the elimination of many existing government welfare payments for anyone not specifically targeted for exemption, as desired by the electorate. Minimum wage legislation would no longer be needed. Labor would welcome the safety net of a guaranteed job, and business would recognize the benefit of a pool of available labor it could draw from at some spread to the government wage paid to ELR employees. Additionally, the guaranteed public service job would be a counter- cyclical influence, automatically increasing government employment and spending as jobs were lost in the private sector, and
decreasing government jobs and spending as the private sector expanded.

Mosler believes he has an answer in "Soft Currency Economics" You'll have to cut and paste the url to the "Go" line of your browser. You should take a look, cause at some point, this is going to start looking awfully good to a lot of different governments. The French have unemployed hitting the bricks in tonights news, e.g.

There is a school of thought that believes US has already 'signed-on' to the general thesis of "Soft Currency Economics".

(Tue Dec 30 1997 00:51 - ID#316409)
@ Hatt, Plate
Actually it's worked amazingly well. In many ways we've had the strongest, most sustained, most stable economy in the history of the nation...or ANY nation for that matter. If we now have to "face the music" for our fiat currency ways, that's OK, I prefer the overall totality to the alternatives.

Yes, we'll "keep the ship afloat at any cost". Our mistake in 1929 was to tighten credit, dry up liquidity, close our economic borders. We won't repeat those errors. This time, worst case scenario is recession, not brutal depression, coupled with inflation as we print monet to keep the ball a rollin.... Sure it mean "faith" in fiat currency....but it'll happen that way just the same.

meanwhile, more will turn to Gold perhaps than have in the past 18 years, so it will have a day to shine..for those who buy at these levels for the first time and havn't been unfortunate enough to have held it all these years, missing the equity gains they could have made, so as to own 10 times as much Gold as the earlier investors will have.

silver plate
(Tue Dec 30 1997 00:55 - ID#289468)
1932 revisited
SDRer_A Sounds to me like the NRA warmed over.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 00:56 - ID#316409)
@ Media bias??
Hmmm, media bias at all costs in business reporting? Not in my current edition of Newsweek. We have some pretty bearish articles in there, that address the Asian crises, the improbability of a "fourth" year of whopping gains, etc. All three primary articles on these subjects are quite bearish in my opinion.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 00:59 - ID#255284)
Re-Posting / devilling
here are the three ( main ) posts you made on July 30, I agree, they are certainly worth repeating now, hope they are of help:

Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 19:53 Glenn ( AUAG ) :
So there has been alot of questions on why I'm more bearish, about the XAU going up and about the Market in general. I'm very busy right now but I will try and make some comments here. Being over sold or support are meaningless in bear markets just like being overbought and resistence are meaningless in bull markets. Traders said that there was "Good" support at 325.00. Well we went from $333.00 to 324.00 in one day and then that same day rallied to $325.00. So the "Great" support we had at 325.00 was able to stop a several dollar decline on July 3rd on a closing basis. Of course we opened up $6 lower that Monday and went down some more. So in the end $325.00 was not so great after all. The point I am tring to make here is that there are very good reasons for stocks and bonds to go up and Gold to go down and support and resistence numbers will only give a temporary pause to the markets. I am not sure if or how badly the government is lying to us about the CPI and PPI but I go over them very carefully every month and there is currently little to no inflation. The budject is getting ballanced and Clinton is looking fair. The economy is growing but no too fast. Overall everything is great. I am not sure how long this will last and I do not believe it will last for years, but right now this is what it is. With this economic enviroment bonds are hitting highes on a daily basis. Stocks are going straight up and Gold has nowhere to
go but down.

Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:06 Glenn ( AUAG ) :
Part 2 --- I realize that many traders including Jerry Favors ( Who I respect greatly ) believe that stocks will peak for good any day now. I believed that not to long ago but I have changed my mond with this current Bond rally. The current bond rally changes everything. With the bond market ralling stocks have no place to go but up and Gold has no place to go but down. I realize that one may think that Bonds could peak any day now also but I also believe that bonds shall peak a few weeks before the final peak in stocks so if bonds are hitting new highes today then stocks still have some more to go. It is looking more and more like a small deflationary time period is developing and that there shall not be meaningful correction in stocks nor meaningful rallies in gold until the final turn. This opinion could change at any time but I can not se it changing to soon. As a trader you MUST go with the current trend or get crushed. This is the current trend. No one in this group is more bullish on Gold then me. Trust me when I say that! I look at all the markets every day constantly and ask if this is the turning point and what it would take to turn these markets and what the turing point will look like. I sure hope that I will be able to spot the exact bottom in Gold, because I'll be so rich so quickly. I simply do not see it now. I am not sure what will happen next but I did buy some Sept 325 puts today. I was the only trade in them all day. I bought them for 160 and they settled at 200. If you want to buy some lottery tickets these are them. Don't do it because you think it is rational, do it because you want to make money. This entire move up in stocks is irational and this move down in gold
is also.

Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:17 Glenn ( AUAG ) :
Part 3 - I just want to cover gold stocks really quickly. I really believe ( Correct or not ) that the reason Gold stocks have not decline has noting to do with moning stocks "Leading" the advance like they did in 93. I believe that Mining stocks are not decline because many many traders are still bullish on gold and they bought the stocks with cash and do not have margin call forcing them to sell. This misplace optimism is more bearish than bullish. The bull market in Gold shall not begin until everyone has thrown in the towel and does not believe it will happen! I believe that the XAU is so over-valued compared to Gold that the best way to make money in the coming year is to buy XAU puts. The XAU should decline by atleast 50% before the bottom is in if not more. The XAU not declining means to me that alot of people are under water witht her position and are stating that they shall hold on until the rally comes and the rally shal make them "Hole" again. Well any rally we have in gold trades shall use to sell there gold stocks to cut there lossess. I sure hope that I am wrong here and that the turning point in the financial markets starts tomorrow. Really. I am just not buying and gold stocks until I am 100% the low is in.

aurator just a little devil

(Tue Dec 30 1997 00:59 - ID#316409)
@ Silicon Investor Bull/Bear poll
For those who read SI ( as I do ) note that the "Bull/Bear" poll results now have the most bearish tilt they've had all year. A new low in the ratio. It's interesting to look at their chart. The poll considers where investors believe tech. stocks will be in 3 months, and has a range of neutral to moderate bearish very bearish, extremely bearish, etc.

silver plate
(Tue Dec 30 1997 01:04 - ID#289468)
slanted media
Perhaps Newsweek doesn't want to be caught with its newspants down. one can't stand upright in a gale.

fast lurker__A
(Tue Dec 30 1997 01:07 - ID#339203)
World Gold Prices
recent prices can be found at
good hunting.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 01:11 - ID#252150)
aj @ BC& Waco
If I thought that BC was responsible for Waco I would definitely have a much different opinion of him. IMO Waco was one of the worst travesties of justice to ever occur in your Country. Judging from everything I've read & seen I realy believe Reno when she said "the buck stops here".

(Tue Dec 30 1997 01:14 - ID#372344)
@ Attempts to save US Economy (PRINT,PRINT,PRINT)

(Tue Dec 30 1997 01:18 - ID#287277)
SilverPlate, 1932 revisited...
That's how I've felt about a number of news stories lately...
rather like being caught in a time-warp...
C'est dommage...


(Tue Dec 30 1997 01:40 - ID#335190)
SDRer @ 00:47
Warren B. Mosier. I would appreciate knowing his connections before and at present. Such as funding, research etc. This guy is testing the water.
The question is who is he fronting for ?

I read some of his take on Quebec and Canadian economics, re: Fleur currency. Quebec issue is more than economic. He is putting forth a debate, that is smoke and mirrors.

I suggest, he is also putting forth smoke and mirrors, regarding "Labour would welcome the safety net of a guaranteed job" Yes, labour would, when you consider the reality that the Corporate agenda, is, and will be, to destroy the rights of workers. A worker without a job is nothing !

Yes, the Central Bankers are behind such stupid attempts to make the citizen believe that the work ethic is alive and well. I expect that the over capacity of manufacturing world wide, requires that workers will work less and less. Yes, the time is here now. Korea is an example.

Warren B. Mosier, is a paid agent, doing a job, that requires the citizen to believe, that there is no life, other than a work life. Put the country, and citizen in debt, and the central bankers, and world bankers control all things that represent "We The People" *BALANCE IS REQUIRED*

(Tue Dec 30 1997 01:46 - ID#372344)
@ Attempts to save US Economy (PRINT, PRINT,PRINT)
PBS Frontline will air tonite at 9 P.M. "BETTING ON THE MARKET'
a first hand look at what in part has driven this equities market, but
more importantly, it demonstrates just how deeply invested regular
everyday people are in the "markets" thereby IMHO showing
compelling evidence for Their NEED to keep the "Paper Game"
going even if it means PPP ( Inflate ) , and to ever so gradually
reduce market overvaluation without wholesale panic,as I had
pointed out in previous posts, using their Weapons of Mass Deception.
In addition it also points to the exceptional vulnerability said ordinary
people are in, since most have floating rate Mortgages, having
remortgaged their properties when rates dropped, hence the extreme
position AG is in should a crisis require large interest rate increases.
We are indeed talking about ordinary peoples life savings, retirement
savings, etc.. riding on the "Market" and their ability or not of holding
confidence in the US$ and Bonds. In my view they will do everything possible to at least have an orderly decline. Will they be successful
is another question, as previously posted the US$ is and will be
challenged as sole World reserve currency. Stay Tuned.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 01:48 - ID#347457)
LGB, you don't have to go overboard
Wow, here I go to look what's new at Kitco and what do I see - LGB irritating the hell out of Kitco again.

LGB, you said that you made some New Year resolutions - better start to work on it soon ;- ) Looks like you take a great pleasure to annoying a lot of people, even if it takes to stretch a truth a bit. Look, I am not so different from your investment philosophy, due to the fact that most of my money ( just like yours ) comes from 403K Now, you know very well that you can not buy physical stuff with 401K money ( paper lobby looked after their interest very well and wants all 401K money to go into paper ) . For that reason your statement

"about 450% gains total since I started puttin the money in. I've ooutlined before where all these gains have now been placed, so I won't be redundant. A lot of it is in SIlver currently I'll tell ya that."

can not be true ( 401K money can't buy Silver ) , but it's a good way to irritate people on this site. You also post most of your "paper rules, gold stinks" messages on days when stocks go up and gold goes down ( then turn around and talk about Kitco people not mentioning "bad times" for gold )

No need to do that, don't kick the man when he is on the ground - markets take care of it ( at least for now, though it'll change! ) ;- )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 01:50 - ID#335190)
Flash @ 00:38
"The union is watching very closely!" Yes, they would be, I expect the North American Unions are part of the corporate agenda. They are policemen, bought and paid by their memberships. The union leadership, is in place to control the workers/citizens. Only the membership is not given the right to vote for the Police Chief, or policy of the police force. It is a great system for the "IN" group.
Government-Labour-Business, all doing their individual effort for the advancement and betterment of the Worker-Citizen-Consumer. Take Care.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 01:53 - ID#419147)
bailout, LGB2, America doing well
I agree LGB2, American economy has done wery well ( but not surprisingly )

The point, as i see it, is that US Fed has borrowed 5.5 trill US$, waisted a lot of it, but spent the rest on building up Rayethon, Boeing, Sun Microsystems, and lots of buildings and so on..

This is REAL wealth, we have discussed it before.

On the day US prints 5.5 trillion US$ and pays its debts, it still has IBM, Rayethon and Co, but does not own a cent to anybody, so it will continue to do well indeed.

The only thing which will be lost is the Credibility of US government, no one will be willing to borrow it money for a century or two after that.

Waiting for comments

(Tue Dec 30 1997 01:59 - ID#347457)
Oris, good luck to you my friend. I was to Moscow once - some 30 years ago I was a member of a college volleyball team playing against Russia. Well they beat the hell out of us but after the game we drank a lot of vodka together and that made it bearable ;- ) Its always interesting to see the people able to get along despite the politicians and government being on each other throat. That keeps my hope for a human race going

(Tue Dec 30 1997 02:02 - ID#398105)


Thanks for your reply. Again, I have never been to the States so I really cannot grasp "the" situation. I am some what surprised concerning low poll turn outs. You don't by any chance have any statistics of poll turn outs since the turn of the centuary. It may be of interest to compare turn out, buying strength of US dollar, monetry supply, gold price...

I find it difficult to accept that voter turn out has been low over the years, it does not balance with the democratic process. The issue there after is simple - if your national leadership does not reflect THE PEOPLE, then the people are not reflected in the NATIONAL LEADERSHIP. The question there after is - America as a great power, is it rising or falling?

Professor Paul Kennedy ( Yale ) in his publication "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" dated 1988, pages 665-666, draws a comparison between the US and the ( ex- ) Soviet Union, points out that the laissez faire n

(Tue Dec 30 1997 02:04 - ID#398105)


Thanks for your reply. Again, I have never been to the States so I really cannot grasp "the" situation. I am some what surprised concerning low poll turn outs. You don't by any chance have any statistics of poll turn outs since the turn of the centuary. It may be of interest to compare turn out, buying strength of US dollar, monetry supply, gold price...
I find it difficult to accept that voter turn out has been low over the years, it does not balance with the democratic process. The issue there after is simple - if your national leadership does not reflect THE PEOPLE, then the people are not reflected in the NATIONAL LEADERSHIP. The question there after is - America as a great power, is it rising or falling? Professor Paul Kennedy ( Yale ) in his publication "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" dated 1988, pages 665-666, draws a comparison between the US and the ( ex- ) Soviet Union, points out that the laissez faire nature of American society probably gives it a better chance of readjusting to changing circumstances than a rigid and dirigiste power would have. This is conditional upon the existence of a NATIONAL LEADERSHIP which can understand the larger process at work in the world today............the United States now runs the risk that dicision makers in Washington must face the awkward and enduring fact theat the sum total of the United States' global interests and obligations is nowadays far larger than the country's power to defend them all simultaneously. The key issue from Prof Kennedys' book is that "it is a striking vindication of the often neglected truth that the only way to understand the present is to understand the past".

Low poll turn outs in the States would suggest that the democratic process is dying ( or dead ) . Looks like you have given up.

Aye, Haggis

(Tue Dec 30 1997 02:08 - ID#252127)
THE COMING BULL MARKET IN GOLD, speech by Richard M. Pomboy 10/16/97 Page down a bit for speech

Dave in CO
(Tue Dec 30 1997 02:10 - ID#215211)

(Tue Dec 30 1997 02:17 - ID#301318)
6pak: Unions are part of the corporate agenda

Indeed they are! They are a corporation in and of themselves.
There is no way out for the drones. We are shackled by our own greed.
I have lurked here for only a month and am astonished to hear sentiments that I have carried inside for years. I worry for my familly, friends and neighbors, who have spent their way into blind prosperity and cannot see the perilous road they are on. I myself made a vow years ago to free myself of serious debt ( successfully ) and begin accumulating. Now the trick is to continue, and retain what I curently have.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 02:27 - ID#398105)
Jack - sorry but a small error............correction


"The Coming Gold Bull Market"..........

then search down left menu for "Speeches", click, there you go.....

Aye Haggis

(Tue Dec 30 1997 02:34 - ID#301188)
@Haggis re: Cherokee

-A Question: If compulsory voting was removed in Australia what percentage of eligible 'she'll be right mate' Aussie voters ,do you think, would bother turning up at the polling stations?
-Pt. is : voter turnout is not a barometer of the "democratic process'.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 02:35 - ID#252127)


Now, I hope you read it.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 02:37 - ID#401460)
Some Improvement
Feb. Gold
High $292.6
Low $291.3
Vol. 6.03K
Down $2.9 from Fridays Close

(Tue Dec 30 1997 02:40 - ID#401460)
That's +$0.10 better than - $0.10
Sorry for my earlier post on South Korean. I knew it was closed I was exhausted - a zombie on auto post.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 02:44 - ID#398105)
Check out the Nikkei - 36 day trend


It's winter in the northern hemisphere - but I think the ice is melting.

Aye, Haggis

(Tue Dec 30 1997 02:48 - ID#257148)
democracy, it's a fine idea..
Haggis Is it compulsory to vote, or just compulsory to enrol in Ockerland? ( I know places where one need do neither )

Zadeek Voting turnout is a barameter of individual's sense of involvement in society and the power an individual has to change things. If individuals feel alienated, anomic, they will not participate,so voter turnout is a barameter of democracy as it is practiced. imho of course

(Tue Dec 30 1997 02:51 - ID#398105)


Chicken and the Egg...........the Egg cannot give you Hong Kong flu!

It is unlikely that compulsory voting will be with drawn in Australia, the "average" Aussie is fairly relaxed anyway.

Voting, well it is something that we have just got to do, and we do it.

Aye, Haggis

ps I became an Aussie 5 years ago, had the operation and all that.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 02:54 - ID#398105)


If you need a change, do what the Russians do - have a revoltion. No f...... around!

WE have to vote.

Aye, Haggis

(Tue Dec 30 1997 02:55 - ID#398105)


If you need a change, do what the Russians do - have a revolution. No f...... around!

WE have to vote.

Aye, Haggis

(Tue Dec 30 1997 03:00 - ID#257148)
Talking of Barometers reminded me of this story. A Geography Examination on Meteorology. The question posed was How do you measure the height of a sky scraper using only a barometer?
The expected answer involved relatively straight forward algebra and formulae that had been taught in the syllabus. One student, however wrote:
1 ) I could make a pendulum, using the barometer for a weight. Then measure the periodicity of the pendulum in motion, and therefore calculate the height of the building.
2 ) Id stand the barometer on its side, measure the height of the barometer, then measure the length of the barometers shadow. Then measure the length of the shadow of the building, by simple ratio, I can calculate the height of the building.
3 ) I could throw the barometer off the side of the building, count how long it takes to hit the ground, then by cherokeean, I mean Newtonian physics, calculate the height of the building.
4 ) I could go to the janitor and say If you tell me how high this building is Ill give you this barometer.


(Tue Dec 30 1997 03:05 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Silver Plate -- Rolling over loans is what they do best. Even the Japanese have been doing it for years. Things would have long ago gone crash and bang but for those 'rolling' loans! Sometimes they can work. Sometimes they don't.

6pak -- re: vanishing jobs. Someday these companies will wake up to find that they have no customers who can afford their 'accouterments'. Or at least a major part of them. It'll be a much darker world then than what we have at present. They'll then know what Henry Ford was saying when he said that he paid his workers such that they too could buy his product. How many factories today do that? How many less than just a few years ago? And people wonder why we have 'over-capacity'? Hey, who can buy who is underpaid? Who can borrow who is underpaid? The only answer is to keep lowering prices, thus costs, in an ever expanding deflationary 'type' of spiral. The appearance of inflation may be very real, and the increasing amount of money being printed may be real, but when the money is NOT getting into the pockets of everyday people so they can at least adequately participate in the economy, the economy is doomed! Exporting countries first, importing countries second. Net importing countries like the USA depend on exporting countries to soak up the debt paper. When those countries can no longer do that because of their own problems, then the tidal wave of currency problems finally comes ashore here. Sure they can print massive quantities of bills. That'll keep the fat boys fat. It does nothing for the ultimate purchaser of goods; the man on the streets. He only gets LESS purchasing power and more taxes out of the deal. Just the opposite of what was needed!!! HAR! Get those fox-holes dug!

LGB -- Re: the above in reference to your 00:21. IMF -- There to protect the guilty. No more, no less! Basically, another ripoff of taxpayers! I asked two things in the past: 1 ) If government is going to be the lender of last resort, why have 'intermediaries'? 2 ) What makes foreign-made goods cheaper if we have to pick up the tab/difference via currency-aid, and at the same time put so many people here in strife? What a back-assward way to operate! Destruction of country guaranteed!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 03:09 - ID#401460)
Gold going back down
Feb. Gold
2922 -3 -0.1 2926 2913 6.03K

(Tue Dec 30 1997 03:11 - ID#398105)
aurator, Zee, Cherokee..................

"You have to choose [as a voter] between trusting to the natural

stability of gold and the natural stability and intelligence of the

members of the government. And with due respect to these gentlemen, I

advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold."

George Bernard Shaw ( 1856-1950 ) .

Read the rest of this interesting speech by Mr Pomboy..........

the left column, "Speeches", "Coming Gold Bull Market"

Aye, Haggis

(Tue Dec 30 1997 03:14 - ID#398105)
aurator, Zee, Cherokee..................

"You have to choose [as a voter] between trusting to the natural

stability of gold and the natural stability and intelligence of the

members of the government. And with due respect to these gentlemen, I

advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold."

George Bernard Shaw ( 1856-1950 ) .

Read the rest of this interesting speech by Mr Pomboy..........

the left column, "Speeches", "Coming Gold Bull Market"

Aye, Haggis

PS NOTE ALSO that Asian Central Banks Gold holdings in 1980 were 37% of portfolio, down to 5% in July 1995. Silly Billies............

(Tue Dec 30 1997 03:16 - ID#401460)
Have you heard whether Slick's friend, Tyson, is going to supply chicken to Hong Kong the way he supplied beef in Europe after the mad cow scare?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 03:20 - ID#398105)
aurator, Zee, Cherokee


The article below suggests that you cannot, in reality, expand an economy without simultaneous increase in your gold reserves. If you try to do so, well................

Aye, Haggis

(Tue Dec 30 1997 03:23 - ID#398105)


Don't eat chicken or beef. Try sushi!!!

Aye, Haggis

John Disney__A
(Tue Dec 30 1997 03:27 - ID#24140)
Once jerks, always jerks

For lgBUG and cherokee - I vote for cherokee.

I dont understand why "the bug" and Karlita -M69 - visit this site.

They dont offer anything to anyone - They only seem to want to say

how very smart they are - How boring.

I dont want to appear rude, but I think both of you are a obnoxious waste of space. If we want to trade insults, then lets get it on.

I suggest "stinkbug" and "drag queen" as new monikers.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 03:30 - ID#401460)
How do you invest in Chickens? Are they listed on the Chicago Board of trade. There has to be a real shortage in China now. Go Tyson!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 03:35 - ID#398105)
jOHN dISNEY.................

Kitco "netiquette" guidelines!!. This IS a public forum.

I take it that you are not used to using public transport. Use the road system.

Have a nice day.

Aye, Haggis

(Tue Dec 30 1997 03:39 - ID#401460)
My son and daughter in law prepared a vegetarian Christmas dinner for us that was Great. Didn't really miss the Turkey.

Sushi ( sp ) , I have tried a couple of times - not sure I have a taste for it yet. When my wife and I visited them in Hong Kong a couple of years ago, we had some it was Ok.

I couldn't help but notice while in Hong Kong there were chikens hanging everywhere - they use a lot of Chicken.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 03:43 - ID#398105)


Sushi, the more you try, the better it becomes.

You will have gathered, no doubt from the intervening posting, that DEAD DUCKS are a "South African" speciality. May be they have a lot in common with Hong Kong. Hope so!

Aye, Haggis

(Tue Dec 30 1997 03:45 - ID#398105)
No worries, see you later............

(Tue Dec 30 1997 04:04 - ID#26793)
Republic Bank spot silver & gold prices for Monday

(Tue Dec 30 1997 04:05 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 26.75 ( Monday Dec. 29th )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 04:07 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .248 ( Monday Dec. 29th )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 04:08 - ID#26793)
Silver/Gold Ratio = 45.95 ( Monday Dec. 29th )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 04:13 - ID#26793)
Korean rollover still not a done deal; note exposure amounts for 1996, not 1997

(Tue Dec 30 1997 04:25 - ID#371471)
Mr. Disney,

I have lurked on this site for a year now, and I've added a comment
or two during that time. I've enjoyed the comments and have learned
much, but I cannot recall a more vindictive, ill-advised, ill-tempered
and un-gentlemanly comment such as your of recent vintage yet.

I would advise you to refrain from making such derogatory comments,
and I would hope that you would simply refrain from using this
fine chat line that the people at Kitco have worked so diligently to
provide us. You owe everyone on the line an apology.... immediately.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 04:48 - ID#432148)
Cherokee - Haggis A
Have to put my oar in the water on your ealier discourse re voting etc in the US. Why do so few vote? IMHO most of my countrymen have been dumbed down by the Liberal Media and our educational system so they can no longer think for themselves. Liberals are attracted to the media as it gives them a platform which they so dearly love. Take a look at BC as exhibit one. ( A Kennedy clone, and he admits it. ) I read once that a survey showed about 80% of our citizens vote a straight party line every time, about 17% had a vague idea of what the issues were, and about 3% really understood the difference between liberal and conservative philosophys. A Roper poll of journalists in the 92 election showed 89% voted for Clinton. The poll was commissioned by a professional group of journalists. That tells all. Sad.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 04:50 - ID#210114)
Where to now??
Am disappointed to see gold fall US$ 6 in the last week.

What are the predictions by those in the know? A rally for the New Year or another slide?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 04:52 - ID#210114)
TGL and John Disney
TGL is correct when he points out the insulting nature of many posts on this line.

C'mon everybody, we are better than that!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 05:12 - ID#257148)
tgl its deja vu all over again, you did not respond to my post on Thu Nov 27 1997 00:25, I guess you didnt see it. So here it is again, with a little bit more I forgot last time.

Gday, ref your Wed Nov 26 1997 07:15.

Welcome to our little group. I could not help but notice your "I have been a gold bear for years....for my own account, for client accoutns and for the daily newsletter I produce for clients around the world......and........when they're cryin', you should be buyin'" quip,
I remembered:
Date: Sat Oct 11 1997 08:30
ROB ( The Gartman Letter ) ID#40883:
Bart And Group- I recieved my daily copy of the Gartman Letter yesterday morning and found some interesting comments. In his precious metals section he made the following comments.
" During the day we monitor a web-page/chat line for gold trader's (, for those of you who are interested ) , and in the past two weeks, the " volume" and excitement amongst the gold traders has been more than palpable... it had become almost hysterical. We recalled our old trading philosophy: when they're yelling were selling. The metals traders were yellen yesterday morning following the Buba's decision. their collective yelling was wrong."

tgl, are you Mr Gartman?

If you are not, please ignore the rest of this letter, it is meant for Mr Gartman only. I shall, in that case assume you merely share his views, and there is nothing wrong with that.... contrary views are the grist for our better understandings...., I welcome contrary views especially when they are framed in the analysis you have brought to your posts... However, If you are Mr Gartman ( or a subscriber to his newsletter ) you might be interested in this:

Date: Sun Oct 12 1997 19:29
Dr. G. Paulson / California ( Gartman Letter - Bad Investment Advice!!!
) ID#271346:
Bob: I am a FORMER subcriber to the Gartman Letter. I lost more than
60% on his recommendations over a period of three years. I suggest you don't follow his advice! Indeed I feel very confident in using Gartman as a CONTRARY INDICATOR!

and this

Date: Sun Oct 12 1997 19:39
Dr. G. Paulson / California ( Gartman: Defend your reputation!!! )
A CHALLENGE TO GARTMAN: Gartman, since you DO monitor this
site, I invite you to a challenge.
You will post on this site with your real e-mail adress and telephone number refuting what I have said AND..... In return, I will reveal my e-mail address, regular address and phone number. I will then proceed to document the losses I have made following your advice. I will also recount the conversations I have had with you concerning your specific recommendations you gave me at those times. You see, I have the documented proof that your investment advice has been a one way ticket to financial ruin! All you have to do is to accept the challenge and refute the evidence I am prepared to post.
Let the challenge begin!

Mr Gartman, I invite you once more to answer a disgruntled client here

on kitco, the public forum you referred to in *The Gartman Letter*---tgl??

(Tue Dec 30 1997 05:17 - ID#226355)
Haggis, what in your opinion is an average value for gold in the ground? i.e. what are reserves worth in your expert opinion?

Aurator- Please refrain from using words I do not understand ( anomic ) I will post a list of approved words.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 05:17 - ID#226355)
Haggis, what in your opinion is an average value for gold in the ground? i.e. what are reserves worth in your expert opinion?

Aurator- Please refrain from using words I do not understand ( anomic ) I will post a list of approved words.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 05:23 - ID#257148)
that 'flation thing again
Eldo Excellent post 03:05, helped explain to me how come this deflation-reality looks and feels like inflation.

John Disney__A
(Tue Dec 30 1997 05:25 - ID#24140)
what can I say after Ive said Im sorry
for tgl - I apologize

I now await apologies for the continous snide remarks to OTHERS

not me particularly from Karlito and LGB that have led to my horrid outburst.

John Disney__A
(Tue Dec 30 1997 05:31 - ID#24140)
Gentlemanly IS as gentlemanly DOES
for TGL

While we are the subject of being gentlemanly - are you The Gartman

Letter ??

(Tue Dec 30 1997 05:31 - ID#257148)
what's the problem?
You don't owe me no apology, can't see what they're getting worked up about really.


John Disney__A
(Tue Dec 30 1997 05:41 - ID#24140)

For Haggis -

You trying to get a rise outta me, mate ??

Dont really get your drift - I assume it is some form of

obscure and pointless Scots insult. Thank you haggis and good bye.

John Disney__A
(Tue Dec 30 1997 05:49 - ID#24140)
Are you upset because you couldn't get us out??
Sorry haggis - computer ate my subject - reference was to your

enigmatic statement "dead ducks are a south african specialty" and

a reference to hong kong. Could you possible expand. I assume this

offerring of yours is not something derogatory but rather is of a constructive, positive, and affirmative nature. Am I wrong ?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 05:50 - ID#226355)
Deep thoughts
John Disney- What kind sir is your opinion of Durban Deep? It was mentioned to me over lunch today. Strange to hear of SA companies from non gold bug types. Is the tide turning?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 06:18 - ID#257148)
darn it, sure is one slippery dude this
oh well, guess you missed my post again huh?


(Tue Dec 30 1997 06:22 - ID#403335)
Eldorado @ 03:05
"The appearance of inflation may be very real, and the increasing amount of money being printed may be real, but when the money is NOT getting into the pockets of everyday people so they can at least adequately participate in the economy, the economy is doomed!"

You "cut to the chase"! The "pushing on a string" concept.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 06:25 - ID#398105)
John Disney...............


IF ever we should meet, I would be more than happy to buy you a Scotch Malt - you have got character. I would sincerely hope that we keep the "chat" friendly but competative. With respect.

Any interpretation is yours. The Scots are worse than the Irish, the Irish are actually nice people.

To you, I hope that you and your family have a GID NEW YEAR.

With respect,


ps - the Hex River Valley does not compare with Glen Coe.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 06:29 - ID#35767)
Anybody know Glenn's latest take on things. I think it is time to buy Yen.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 06:43 - ID#432148)
Monthly CRB chart potential BOTTOM...
We have a 40 month cycle up from the '92

'93 bottom to the '96 top at 263.79. That has

been followed by a 20 month down cycle which has

retraced 50% of the long term gain. This 50%

ABC type retracement has left the CRB sitting

just above the 65 week uptrending moving average.

Of course, we could see a further collapse

to the 220 area, but that does not appear necessary

from a TECHNICAL point of view. Monthly stochastics

are very oversold. Does anyone have a sentiment

indicator reading? I would imagine they are very

oversold, as one hears talk of nothing but deflation.

This would probably be a boost for the metals

if we get an upturn, as they are so oversold, and

one might anticipate another leg up on the CRB for a

year or two, during which we rediscover commodity


(Tue Dec 30 1997 07:35 - ID#364147)
@ One hell-of-A storm....................and can't believe the power is still on
Bring 'it' on baby~~~~~~

(Tue Dec 30 1997 07:48 - ID#339274)
FWIW, look for a test of 68,above 73 is a buy.Seasonal strength
coming in until the 22nd of January.Platinum the strongest.

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 30 1997 07:52 - ID#287367)
@ Fibonacci Enthusiasts

(Tue Dec 30 1997 07:53 - ID#26793)
Korean rollover still not a done deal; Rubin making personal; calls on bankers

(Tue Dec 30 1997 08:16 - ID#26793)
Sakura Bank (Japan) looking for way out of dilema.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 08:19 - ID#26793)
Deflation News: Oil prices slump on lower Asian demand.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 08:21 - ID#30238)
@ John Disney...more on cricket

-tgl = a streaker who was quickly exposed by aurator in the true spirit of 'bodyline'.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 08:23 - ID#426220)
MONEY SUPPLY SOARS - Broadest Measure of Money Supply M3 EXPLODES

PER THE NEW YORK TIMES - December 29, 1997:

"The annualized M3 growth rate for the past 3 weeks has been 16% -- a shocking number seen only rarely since the explosive demands of World War II."

The Hong Kong Oracle, Milhouse, has always maintained there is a positive correlation between the trends of money supply ( M3 ) and the price of gold. In light of M3s accelerating growth rate in recent months - the highest increase in over a decade, and nearly DOUBLE the Feds upper range guideline - it is well worth a re-study of Milhouses analysis, US MONEY SUPPLY AND THE DEMAND FOR GOLD:

(Tue Dec 30 1997 08:24 - ID#26793)
Traders are stunned with heating oil below 50 cents

(Tue Dec 30 1997 08:27 - ID#26793)
Asian road to ruin; a roadmap

(Tue Dec 30 1997 08:28 - ID#426220)
REF: Mihouse's report of M3 vs Gold price: "...the trends of money supply ( M ) and the price of gold. In light of M3s accelerating growth rate in recent months - the highest increase in over a decade, and nearly TRIPLE the Feds upper range guideline -..."

With M3 TRIPLING, can inflation be just around the corner?!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 08:51 - ID#26793)
Deflating commodity prices, falling farm prices; Swiss, Austrian & Canadian DEFLATION
Selling land? Sell soon, says one broker


Long time farmland real estate broker Bruce Rathwell thinks the rush of
European farmers to immigrate to Canada is over as land values across the
pond continue to decline.

Unless there are other pressures, the Clinton-based Rathwell says, farmers won't leave
their home farms while their value is shrinking. Deflation has hit Switzerland, where
land prices have declined by 50 per cent from the peak three years ago. Austria and
Germany are headed the same way, Rathwell says.

The exception may be Holland. With disease sweeping through the country's swine
industry like wildfire, one pig in three is likely to be killed before it reaches market.
Rathwell says Dutch farmers are waiting for government buyouts, so they're staying
put for now. But Rathwell says with a cheque in hand some Dutch farmers will want to
come to Canada.

When they do, they'll be looking for farms with modern buildings, 500 sows or more,
and 2,000 plus feeder barns. Dutch farmers feel smaller barns are obsolete.

These new Canadians will bring with them technology that was paid for by the Dutch
government, the only government in Europe that really supports agriculture, Rathwell
says. This will boost all of agriculture here.

Rathwell says current European buyers are seeking a safe haven for their money, away
from the currency devaluation that may occur when weak and strong European
currencies are combined into the Euro-dollar. While annual returns on Ontario land
have averaged around three per cent since 1990, many Europeans think land is a
better investment than the potentially higher risk returns on the stock market.

European land buyers generally like the fact that there are environmental regulations in
place here in Canada, Rathwell says. They want to see practical limits to the number
of livestock that can be put on an acreage. "People coming to Canada are more
environmentally conscious than we are," Rathwell says. "They've been in a place
where there were no laws, and now they are being kicked out."

While one driving force behind land prices has been European immigrant dem-and, the
other is expansion here driven by high commodity prices. It's rare that dairy, pig and
cash crop farmers are all doing well at once. Pork demand from Asia, in particular,
has driven expansion. Rathwell stresses that high commodity and land prices have
nothing to do with policies developed by governments.

A sharp decline in farm commodity prices here that triggers deflated land prices will be
created somewhere else, Rathwell says, urging farmers to keep an eye on the
economic fortunes of Pacific Rim nations. Asian governments are under tremendous
pressure now as their formerly robust economies go through a readjustment.

"If Asian currencies stay strong you'll see things boom here. If their currencies fall that
would hurt us," Rathwell says. His advice? Watch the money markets. Where it goes,
commodities will follow.

Another factor in land prices is interest rates. Low rates now are making the boom in
land buying possible. For that reason, anyone thinking of selling a farm in the next 12
years better do it in the next two, Rathwell says. He predicts that land prices that are
peaking now with low interest rates and high commodity prices will go down later,
emphasizing that no boom lasts forever. While Rathwell is best known for swinging
deals between farmers of different nations, he says most of his business is with farmers
trading land right here in Canada.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 08:56 - ID#26793)
Breather before Round 2?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 08:56 - ID#426220)
YEAR END MARKET REVIEW Current Fundamentals

Dr. Thomas Drake generously shares with the GOLD-EAGLE readership a synopsis of his erudite and comprehensive YEAR END MARKET REVIEW.

It is indeed a perceptive and incisive analysis... must reading for the serious market student and professional. Also, very illuminating are the two 23-year charts of GOLD and the US Dollar.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 08:59 - ID#224149)
Good Morning Ted.The people that predict the future price of Gold are now working for environment Canada.Away to find snowflakes.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:01 - ID#93232)
He's the guy that ate your fries. Ring! Yesterday was merely flesh wounds...rabbit there are head butts....tomorrow, someone loses an ear. Spit!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:02 - ID#419147)
advice needed!!
Can anyone here suggest a good site which would introduce
in detail the PT ( Past Taxpayer, Perpetual Traveller etc. )


(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:04 - ID#28098)
Donald's post on Sakura bank...
The paper said the bank hopes to boost its capital adequacy ratio by drastically reducing its ASSETS OVERSEAS.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:04 - ID#426220)
...round 2???
Donald__A ( @Vronsky ) - Your comment "Breather before Round 2?" Sorry, you went over my head on that...what do you mean?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:07 - ID#403267)
After taking a look at R Jett's charts, other indicators and price action I took profits on ABX and cut my silver exposure in half yersterday. I am getting used to this I guess. At this point I don't know if smart or stupid though leaning toward former. Since I posted here awhile back that I was holding my positions I thought it only fair to post when I changed my mind for a "strategic displacement". OK, so its guerilla warfare, I trade my 12 pounders in for AK's

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:09 - ID#426220)
SDRer_A: "...drastically reducing its ASSETS OVERSEAS" = Dumping T-Bonds

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:09 - ID#339274)
Try the International Harry Schultz Letter.Good Info all around.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:11 - ID#419147)
Cyclist (Harry Schultz Letter)
Uhm..does it have an adress?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:15 - ID#339274)
FYI luck

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:20 - ID#256201)
@Dr. R.Yours of 00:17 12/30/97 Re: typo.12/28/97 @ 22:57
My error.
You may find the subject post interesting. I did!
It exemplifies a major part of what I KNOW to be WRONG w/ the usg. Not the Nation-just the gubmnt!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:22 - ID#93232)
Is the "THRILLA' IN MANILA" Friday afternoon or Monday? Except, this time will it be broadcast from near Madison Square Garden? A great time to save taxes on gains....get your tickets now.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:25 - ID#26793)
It seemed as we were having a typical Kitco weekend duel, each of my deflationary posts followed by a skillful Vronsky inflationary counterpunch. I have a fresh cup now; ready for round two!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:29 - ID#426220)
...all in the pursuit of knowledge
Donald_A: That's what makes the MARKET... a difference of opinion, but all to the same end: KNOWLEDGE

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:31 - ID#26793)
No one will argue that Kitco is a ringside seat to anything important that is happening in the world. See the superpowers slug it out in realtime.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:40 - ID#287277)
Vronsky, T-Bonds
So I believe!

MyBrotherCherokee@Smokemobile, Watch the IrishPunt!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:41 - ID#364147)
Third World Post Office(Canada Post)
Just got a call from our realtor in Maine wondering why I didn't mail the downpayment for our new property---He almost couldn't believe a letter couldn't go from Nova Scotia to Maine in EIGHT days ( welcome ta Canada Post buddy ) ....guess they're too damn busy striking and spitting on customers=PATHETIC!.....

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:42 - ID#333131)
Go vronsky, go Donald!!! Flation will be the winner.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:43 - ID#78116)
NJ 21:55

Good point about the demonetarization of silver vs gold. Gold replaced silver, now what will replace gold?

I think information has replaced gold. All countries with a floating currency must operate by the information standard which is much more rigorous than the gold standard, just witness the problems of S. Korea

The internet is the heart of the information standard. Several hundred thousand traders all looking at their screens, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. When the PM of Poo Dunc makes a stupid statement, down goes his currency. When domestic companies over borrow or national governments do the same, there is a run on their currency.

In this environment we now find ourselves in, markets are the source of discipline that gold could only dream of being. Markets react much quicker and with much greater severity and with much greater equality. I know there are a few Kitcoites who feel that all the markets are rigged, but really, who can rig a trillion $ a day market. Even the US Fed is a bit player. When the US dollar was under attack, all the intervention in the world could do nothing to stop the dollar's slide. Now that the U.S. economic house is in better order, it is little wonder that the dollar is rising in value.

In this environment, the second tier central banks will begin to ask themselves why they bother to hold gold. Many have already asked that question and answered it by selling. More will do so slowly over time. It may take another 20 years or more of central bank selling to complete this transition. Old traditions die hard and very slowly. At the rate of cb selling over the past decade, the cbs still have a 70 year supply.

The net of this is that cb selling will continue to be a central factor in the market for gold as it has been for the past decade. For that reason, any recovery in the price of gold can only be temporary. The long term direction for gold is down. The mining industry has a lot of bankruptcy and consolidation to go through, a process that has just started.

In the end, gold will return to its historical relationship with silver, roughly 16 to 1, as both metals become industrial commodities.

Tyler Rose
(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:45 - ID#373164)
Delivery of Comex Gold

I have been notified that I was "delivered on" for December Gold last Friday. I am now told that the following procedure will be followed to actually take delivery in physical gold. Lind-Waldock will mail me a "certificate" informing me that the gold is being held at a depository in New York City and that I will be charged some nominal sum to hold the gold for my account. If I want to take physical possession of the gold, I must notify the depository and ask them to arrange shipment to me, the cost of which I will pay. The kicker seems to be that, if I subsequently want to tender the gold for sale, then I will have to submit it to a metalurgist to have it certified as to purity and weight. I will have to see if I can determine the cost of this recertification before I take delivery. If the charge is large, it would be an obvious deterrent to taking the gold physically. If the charge is small, no problem. Any Kitcoites out there have any experience with things of a like nature?

I recall that there are several discussants ( ? ) hereon that have metalurgical backgrounds. Anyone have an idea of what it would cost to have approx. 100 ounces certified for purity and weight?

Thanks, and I will keep the board posted of future developments.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:45 - ID#426220)
ALL: As I mentioned a few days ago I was contacted by a director of KOFEX who said that they will soon begin trading GOLD FUTURES. He asked me what was the theoretical gold finess for Gold Futures traded at the COMEX and LBMA. Specifically, he asked "if it is 999.9, 1kg gold?" I aswered "I believe it is 999.9," but he came back stating he must know for certain. So I called around. NO ONE seems to know for certain, some even said it was 999.5.

ANYONE out there absolutely certain???

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:47 - ID#364147)
No snow---just rain and a lotta WIND~~~~~~~~~UNIONS SUK!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:48 - ID#364147)
Looks like we're having another crash-

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:49 - ID#93232)
@EB>>>regarding the New York Spot Price.......
Would you please hand me the K-Y, no, noooo! For the cut above my eye, man!....I ain't hurtin' that bad yet....

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:49 - ID#188244)
Sorry if this has already been posted...
J Orlin Grabbe weighs in on Y2K:

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:55 - ID#78116)
I have to come down on Vronsky's side on this one.

Inflation is a domestic phenomena, particularly for an economy that is as insular as the US with only about 14% of GDP dependent on foreign trade.

International events can have an influence but in the final analysis, it is domestic policy that determines price level.

If the Fed learned anything from the Great Depression and from the 1987 Crash it is that liquidity matters. Greenspan has made it clear that he will provide the necessary liquidity to deal with any crisis. A look at the monetary aggregates shows that he means business. Money growth has been accelerating since late summer and continues to do so. Rapid money growth is one of the first indicators of future inflation.

Trade policy can also be inflationary. The defeat of fast track, while not a major defeat for free trade is a setback, less free trade means more inflation.

Labor policy can also be inflationary. Reagan's breaking of the air traffic controllers back in 1981 sent a disinflationary chill through the ranks of labor and contributed to the slowdown in wage demands. Clinton's support of the UPS strikers will do just the opposite. Minimum wage hikes last year and this year will add to labor cost pressures that are already rising at their fastest pace in nearly 7 years.

The deflationary downdrafts from Asia will be modest. Who can document what kind of impact the Mexico crisis had on the US economy. We hardly noticed it and Mexico is a lot more important to the US as a trading partner then all the Asian tigers put together.

Finally, for the first time in this recovery the Fed is behind the inflation 8 ball in raising interest rates. Not wanting to make the situation in Asia worse they have delayed rate hikes that surely would have occurred in November.

Inflation, not deflation is the major economic concern for the coming year.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:55 - ID#364147)
Sysco---just another Cape Breton-Nova Scotia FARCE

(Tue Dec 30 1997 09:56 - ID#368250)
Cat out of the bag

Now you have gone and done it. CNBC financial experts were talking this AM about how the Asian crisis was causing a liguidity crisis. This, they said, would make people look for safer places to put their money. Couple this with the fact that the short side risk was extremely high, and it would probably mean that gold would probably rise within the next twelve months. Their predictions are from $50 to $100.

You know, a little talk sometimes can go a long way. Do you suppose that the average investor, upon watching this, might want to buy a few ounces of gold? Do you suppose the reality of the giant short position is becoming a reality to more than us KITCOITES?

Allow me to make a prediction. Look for gold to test its low. This is so that all these shorts can have a chance to reverse their positions. Then

expect a one day move down as much as $10, followed by an immediate reversal with gold closing at or close to its opening. The game will then be on. This

(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:04 - ID#26793)
Successful Capitalism, a high stand of living for all, prosperity et al requires savers to create the capital and industrious producers to use that saved capital to create innovative and useful products. The current system of floating and wildly gyrating currencies distracts from that. There is no way to save in safety. Producers are distracted from their real work as they become preoccupied with currency fluctuations. Trade across currency borders is inhibited and the final result will be a reduced standard of living worldwide. Capitalism is seriously at risk in this environment and will be replaced by "something else" if this situation continues. Computers and internet communications are rapidly spreading that message also.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:04 - ID#426220)
GOLD BETWEEN $3,500 TO $8,400...?

This prediction gains tremendous credibility after you read the credentials of its author:

About the Author: In 1965 Joseph Miller became a member of the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He was active in the exchange during the time Currency Futures and Interest Rate Futures were introduced by the Exchange, and served on the Board of Governors of the Exchange for ten years.

If we go back to an earlier section of this paper, we observed that after 1971, when the artificial pressure was lifted from gold prices that prices advanced to a peak of 24 times the old price and settled around approximately 10 times the old price. No two events in any market develop precisely the same, but just as an
exercise, if something similar happens this time, gold prices might peak near $8,400.00, and settle around $3,500.00 an ounce.

The remote possibility that these numbers can be correct, is enough evidence to make it easy to understand why the central bankers and high government officials around the world want to denigrate, denounce, discard, disown and dislike gold, plus keep prices low. It makes one want to take time to consider what the implications of anything remotely resembling this happening might be. The last time gold had been held down artificially for 37 years. This time, so far, it has only been 17, which may lessen the next rise. On the other hand we have asset markets that have reached such lofty levels, where no less an authority than the FED Chairman has described the situation, as long as a year ago, as "Irrational Exuberance". So who can tell? Let's not lose sight, while we are pondering the question, of the trillions and trillions of fiat megabyte dollars, yen, marks, and what have you, that are whizzing around the world electronically every minute of every hour of every day. They have to end up buying something, and it might just be gold one of these days.

Part II of his mind-blowing essay is located at:

Mr. Mick
(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:05 - ID#345321)
Donald, Vronsky - regarding inflation/deflation..........
I'm just a novice at this, but it appeared to me that Dr. Drake grossly underestimated the severity of banking problems around the world, and their effect on prices, dollar levels, etc.
A lot of the information he posted would support a deflationary scenario.
Also, he never mentioned M3 or money supply.

New Kid on the Block
(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:05 - ID#389125)
Inflation is Alive and Well


Regardless of what the government numbers pretend to tell us, the SF lets me know what is "real" in our little corner of the world.

Must earn more dollars to buy bread, watch TV, and clothe the kids! Away to the wars... Again!

P.S. Which December 29th was Chad Meek speaking about in Mike Sheller's Astrological Investor? ( Dec 13 )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:06 - ID#93232)
Great post on inflation...thank you...I agree the delayed rate hikes will come into play.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:13 - ID#348286)
@Tyler Rose
Kudos to you for taking delivery of your Gold contract. If more investors would do this the sharade would be over quickly.
About your question, they sure are making it expensive to take delivery.
Is it in the form of a standard recognized bar? If so it does not have to be
Standard bars ( J&M, Credit Suisse etc. ) are accepted worlwide and usually are not a problem.
If these Comex jokers don't deliver in standard bars, then I wonder what kind of business they are truly in. Good Luck......

(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:21 - ID#78116)
Capitalism imperiled by Markets?

The crux of your arguement seems to be that capitalism is imperiled by the existence of markets e.g. markets for currencies.

Quite the contrary, currency markets are a great source of information. Information that is needed to make intelligent investment decisions. Information, in my view of the world, is THE source of value. If you fix exchange rates, you destroy the information that is inherent in the market price.

Secondly, fixing the price of a currency to a fixed quantity of gold does not solve this problem, it just changes the name of the quote. Governments will now have to defend their currencies against that fixed rate just as they do now against a $ rate. I don't see how this is an improvement. Nor do I see how governments can possible do it. In a global economy where the information standard rules, floating rates are the only alternative and a good one at that.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:23 - ID#254269)
Fed Governor on Nightly Business Report tonight

One of the Fed Governors will be on Paul Kangas' NBR tonight.
Unfortunately, I did not get the name of the individual governor.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:30 - ID#287277)
Karlito99, Inflation/Deflation
Part of Donald's reasoned argument is that, as the reserve currency,
the USD has been able to EXPORT inflation for 40 years. After
inflation, deflation. While I do not agree entirely with Donald's
position ( as banking practices have become so perverted that we
may well have the worst of both, which equals INSTABILITY ) , Donald's
position has been beautifuly presented and holds many truths.
( And Vronsky has down a credible job of presenting the inflation
argument! ) Kudos to them both...

Steve - Perth
(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:30 - ID#284177)
Steve's specially edited News via Australia

Korean currency plunges as debt blows out to $241bn

Korean currency down 18% as banks bail Seoul

High Hopes - Arafat sets new pullout targets

Aussie Goldminers facing big writedowns

Getting burned by your Company Share Scheme


Financiers brace for fresh crisis over Korea

After 15 years the bulls are looking for a break

Commodities Boom a matter of time

200 Indonesian companies face $US debt woes

Big Americans take shine to Australian gold

Cashed-up firms swoop on Asia

Reproducing the 1930s

Japanese Banks not out of the woods

Nikkei still dogged by bankruptcy worries

How Alan Greenspan saved the world

( See, nothing to worry about! Or is there? )

De Beers wants Argyle in cartel

Mid Level Officials lobbying for Chinese Devaluation!

The biggest financial meltdown we have seen in our lifetime

Change in sentiment puts shine into gold

The penny starts to drop in the US

NZ voters are wary of M.A.I. free-trade treaty

ASIA'S NEXT CASUALTY? Bad banks could clobber China

BOOKMARK Steves News Page:
( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:30 - ID#254269)
Wall Street Journals; Several very interesting articles in WSJ today;

1. Big Feature article on page A1 re how Indonesian curreny was sunk
by local borrowing. Very lengthy article but worth a look.
2. Story on Page A6 re the Bre-X mystery.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:33 - ID#254269)
@SDRer_A : Reyour 19.51 of 12/29; really liked your post of last night

re The Law of the Last Straw; so very true in so many different facets of life.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:36 - ID#31868)
Dr. R - a.j.
either of you can reach me at re: 30 dec. 00:17

(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:37 - ID#254269)
@ Panda; What constitutes "low volume" ? In some of your posts of late
last night, you talked about the volume on NYSE yesterday. Maybe you already answred this and I missed your answer, but for the benefit
of a newbie, how do you gauge what constitutes high, low or
normal volume ? Is it a comparison versus the previous day, same day last year, or is it dollar turnover amount versus # of shares ?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:40 - ID#26793)
No Karlito. The crux of my argument is that Capitalism requires savers.
Only a fool would save any currency these days thus Capitalism is doomed unless incentive for savings can be restored. The distraction of the markets is a side issue, but an important one.

Barb Hughes
(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:41 - ID#20783)
Vronsky RE: your 945 post
Deliverable gold use to be two nines five, think now is three nines five. Four nines gold is generally for electronic applications, carries a slight premium. Five nines is used in medical and scientific applications and generally worth a substantial premium.

Richard Burke
(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:42 - ID#411318)
Last night Cherokee posted forecast based on his technicals that Ag due for 50% retracement as part of broader move up. Anyone have other or similar ideas.I show some support around $5.70 which is slightly higher than he is predicting.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:46 - ID#344308)

silver down like a hong kong chicken! who called
who names after they predicted a possible 50%
re-tracement? looks like a anything is....
-.18 and clucking....

haggis----the die is cast.....either america goes through some MAJOR
changes soon, or this downward moral spiral will rip the wings
from the eagle, and she will eviscerate her-self upon her own

our enemies are many, and friends few......who will offer the us a hand?


cherokee!; ) ---dotssmfatim----raider-of-the-chicken-feathers--aaaawwkk

Barb Hughes
(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:48 - ID#20783)
Tyler Rose RE: 945 post
RE: Warehouse Receipts
General rule of thumb...Don't take delivery unless you are the end user. may cost you up to 200 bucks to retender a warehouse receipt. BUY Eagles!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:50 - ID#364147)
@ heading for the 'real casino'
Later duuudes~~~~~~~~~~

(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:51 - ID#31868)
Oh beak ed one. I listened and felt the same way. You use your mind and study, I being the first in my family to walk upright must rely mostly on the final decision of gut feel.

It may just be that some of the best silver mining stocks will drop back as well and become savory morsels for my ground draging knuckles.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:53 - ID#243250)
It's good to have you back! I have been trying to track gold exploration news in PNG any thoughts as to a rept. source? Hope all is well with the family..regards

(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:57 - ID#424187)
Is GOLD trading in the US my screens are not working stuck on DEC26/97 ???????

(Tue Dec 30 1997 10:59 - ID#344308)
steve - perth-----

cannot access the info contained in your post on korea....

getting access denied........what was said of korea??

1 day and counting....might have to add a week or two....!; )
it is so close as to be palpable, warm, and sticky! don't
be fooled by the yearly santa rally....this chicken ( stocks )
has the flu and is fixing to be gassed......

the us market not affected by the asian crisis? WHO is the author
of that nefarious statement? it is constantly espoused by the
idiots who cnbc promenades in front of the masses....they believe
what they are told....

i believe NOTHING i am told! it must pass the cherokenazi test
of reality....

cherokenazi--much worse than any nazi ever dreamed of....ask lgbito....


(Tue Dec 30 1997 11:02 - ID#373403)
Tyler Rose
Call Kitco for assay prices. You can also sell gold to refineries who typically pay 98-99% after refining your metal plus $125. In this case the refining would not be necessary as there would be no impurities. Consider this cost in the same vein as the buy/sell spread on coins.

100 ozs X $500 = $50,000.
1-2% = $500-$1,000
plus $125

It seems like the spread between spot and the cost of refining/selling is less than the buy/sell spread on coins. I like to hold my physical as .9999 grain as I am a goldsmith and it is easier to apportion in that form for alloying. I also hold a growing speculative position. If nothing else, I am buying a lifetime supply at below mining cost.


(Tue Dec 30 1997 11:03 - ID#286199)
Try for pricing

Gold and silver off the morning lows.

Lurker 777
(Tue Dec 30 1997 11:05 - ID#317247)
Vronsky, I hope this helps.

Last month I was thinking about taking delivery of gold so I called the COMEX and they faxed me this:

Chapter 13.12- Delivery of gold Paragraph ( g )

By the tender of a warehouse receipt for gold, duly endorsed for transfer, the endorser shall be deemed to warrant that the gold decribed therein weighs 100 troy ounces ( 5% more or less ) and is not less than 995 fine.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 11:18 - ID#426220)

Korean Currency Plunges as Debt Blows Out to $241 BILLION

Korean Currency Down 18% as Banks Bail Seoul

The ORACLE proves beyond a shadow of doubt that the only defense southeast Asians had... AND WILL HAVE - against the on-going currency chaos, stock market turmoil and the regions crumbling bank system is to invest in GOLD. The staunchest and most fanatical anti-GOLDBUGS are obliged to concede to the irrefutable evidence that GOLD is the ONLY SAFE HARBOR vis--vis the looming and devastating Domino Effect engulfing the area:

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 30 1997 11:19 - ID#287367)
@ Puetz
I think your moment of glory is at hand. Bonds, notes, and eurodollars are in the dumpster today, with the "long" ( 30 yr ) treasury nibbling at 6%. The dollar is on its low for the day. ( key reversal in the cards? ) Can the equities markets keep rallying in the face of these adverse conditions? I chose puts on the Mexican stock market ( up 40% this year and 300% since 1995!! ) , and of course, it's denominated in that stalwart currency, the Mexican peso. Possible "double play"...looking for the $MXY ( currently 141.50 ) to take out the end-October lows at 105 by March expiration.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 11:23 - ID#254269)
@ All; Korean debt blowout is $241 Billion in Aussie Dollars and

about $157 Billion in US Dollars; Whichever way you slice it; it's a lot of moolah.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 11:23 - ID#301188)
Steve's newswire service - Perth
-Thankyou for your time in presenting the Oz news. Happy Holidays to you and your family.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 11:23 - ID#426220)
995 or 9995
Lurker 777 ( Vronsky, I hope this helps. ) many thx! May I pls make certain that it is 995 ( per your post ) and not 9995 ( I just want to rule out any possibility of a typo, as I am so prone to do myself ) ???

Richard Burke
(Tue Dec 30 1997 11:25 - ID#411318)
Silver Stocks
Tolerant1: Not too much to rub your knuckles against yet. FSR up 0.6%; ASM even; SSO down 0.6%; PAA down 7%.Is there some conclusion to be drawn from the fact that the first three are Canadian stocks and the last a US stock?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 11:27 - ID#333131)
Milton Friedman, where are you when we need you?
Donald, Attached is the Fed's report on money in circulation over the last 12 months. We know that this month is going to come in around the 477 mark. This would constitute a 7.6% expansion for the year and an annual rate of expansion of 14%+ in the last three months. This is to me confirmation that the Fed is choosing inflation over letting things take their normal course. This seems to me futile and will make your scenario even more painful in the end, but I still think we will see more paper in an effort to shore things up and if Friedman's basic thesis is correct, inflation ahead is a done deal.

Lurker 777
(Tue Dec 30 1997 11:38 - ID#317247)
E-Mail comming your way.

Mr. Mick
(Tue Dec 30 1997 11:44 - ID#345321)
It has always been more politically expedient to try to re-inflate.
However, it doesn't work. It just prolongs the agony, and makes the final crash much worse.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 11:46 - ID#426220)


Major Gold Trading Centers Around the World. Many Gold price links, including closing bullion and gold coin prices. Also shows live GOLD TRADING in London, Singapore, Tokyo & the COMEX:

(Tue Dec 30 1997 11:47 - ID#78116)
Floating currencies are no barrier to savings

The best example I can give you is from my own personal experience. I have worked on and off over the years in Brazil, the grand winner of the post-world war II inflation derby. When I was there in the early 1990s, average inflation was 1%, a day. It was insane. But it was not a barrier to saving.

Brazilians know the time value of money better than any other national group I have encountered. They easily moved their savings around, usually into dollars but often into other currencies, even occassionally into gold. Brazil has continued to grow rapidily in spite of their supposed savings problem. Brazillians were able to save because floating currency markets gave them the information they needed to make intelligent decisions. They would have been better off with a more stable currency, no question about it, but the currency instability was not a barrier to investment or savings.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 11:49 - ID#78116)
Milton Friedman

There is an interview with Friedman in last weeks edition of Forbes. He totally poo-poo's any idea of deflation, pointing out the ability of the Fed to prevent it by simply printing money. He also expects a modest acceleration of inflation due to the recent acceleration in money supply growth.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 11:51 - ID#287277)
Carl, from Milton's pen,
3. On the average, a change in the rate of monetary growth
produces a change in the rate of growth of nominal income six
to nine months later. But this is an average.

Dr. R
(Tue Dec 30 1997 11:54 - ID#272267)
Dr. R. - Feelings @ a.j. and Teddy Bear
Thank you! Interesting indeed. Teddy Bear, you knew me as "farmer".
Will have more to share with both of you.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 11:58 - ID#348286)
@ASIAN BLACK HOLE - Looks like the USA is fully comitted to feed this monster ...
Vronsky: We have always known that the IMF "Package" would not be enough to bail out Korea and others and we have been proven RIGHT.
Now that the FED and Rubin are working behind the scenes to put unstoppable presure on all the major private banks to roll over their credit and even make new loans to Korea, the writing is on the wall.
The US will do whatever they have to, to keep the bubble from busting.
They are probably issuing secret guarantees to all new lenders to Korea, to keep the cash rolling in.
Unfortunately this is very bad news to the AMERICAN PUBLIC, as they are going to foot the BILL. And they have absolutely no choice in the matter ( where is the democracy in this case? ) .
The only good news is that this will water down the value of the US dollar, and enevitibly increase the value of GOLD.
ALL: Watch, the final bill for ASIA will be PHENOMINAL !!!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 12:01 - ID#24355)
regarding post Agreed.The fundamentals look good, the market seems to have discounted STT's nickel/cobalt values which are truly exceptional.Anglo currently has 4 rigs on the property drilling up the 100+ anomolies.Bunting discount of 5% is a little conservative as 10-15%apears more realistic at this stage of the game. Reserves on the Bulh. appear open in all directions. STT appears to be a good but the Tzn factor will always surprise. ......regards

(Tue Dec 30 1997 12:03 - ID#287277)
Carl, Milton Friedman on monteary policy...
3. On the average, a change in the rate of monetary growth
produces a change in the rate of growth of nominal income six
to nine months later. But this is an average.
4. If the rate of monetary growth is reduced, then about six
to nine months later the rate of growth of nominal income and
also of physical output will decline, but the rate of price
rise will be affected very little. There will be downward pressure
on prices only as a gap emerges between actual and potential
5. The effect on prices comes on the average about a year after
the effect on nominal income and output, so that the total delay
between a change in monetary growth and a change in the rate
of inflation averages roughly two years.
6. The above relationships are not invariable. There is many
a slip between the monetary change and the income change.
7. Monetary changes affect output only in the short run--though
"short run" may mean five to 10 years. Over the longer run the
earlier quantity theory seems to hold, and the rate of monetary
growth affects only prices. What happens to output in the long
run depends on such "real" factors as the enterprise, ingenuity,
and industry of the people; the extent of thrift; the structure
of industry and government; the relations among nations; and
so on.
8. It follows that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary
phenomenon, in the sense that it cannot occur without a more
rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output. There
are, of course, many possible reasons for monetary growth--gold
discoveries, the manner in which government spending is financed,
and even the manner in which private spending is financed.
9. Government spending may or may not be inflationary. It will
be inflationary if it is financed by creating money--that is,
by printing currency or creating bank deposits--and if the resultant
rate of monetary growth exceeds the rate of growth of output.
If it is financed by taxes or by borrowing from the public,
the main effect is that the government spends the funds instead
of someone else.
10. One of the most difficult things to explain is the way in
which a change in the quantity of money affects income. Generally,
the initial effect is not on income at all but on the prices
of existing assets ( bonds, equities, houses, and other physical
capital ) . This is the liquidity effect stressed by Keynes; it
occurs on the balance sheet, not on the income account. An increased
rate of monetary growth raises the amount of cash people ( or
businesses ) have relative to other assets. The holders of the
excess cash will try to correct this imbalance by buying other
assets. But one person's spending is another's receipts. All
the people together cannot change the amount of cash all hold--only
the monetary authorities can do that. Their attempts will tend,
however, to raise the prices of assets and to reduce interest
rates. These changes will in turn encourage spending to produce
new assets. Thus the initial effect on balance sheets is translated
into an effect on income and spending. In this connection the
monetarists stress a far wider range of assets and interest
rates than do the Keynesians; they emphasize such assets as
durable consumer goods and other real property, and they regard
market interest rates as only a small part of the whole complex
of relevant rates.
11. One important feature of this mechanism is that a change
in monetary growth affects interest rates in one direction at
the outset and in the opposite direction later on. More rapid
monetary growth at first tends to lower interest rates. But
later on, as it raises spending and stimulates price
inflation, it also produces a rise in the demand for loans that
will tend to raise interest rates. Taking the opposite case,
a slower rate of monetary growth at first raises interest rates,
but later on, as it reduces spending and price inflation, it
lowers interest rates. This inconsistent relation between the
quantity of money and interest rates explains why monetarists
insist that interest rates are not a good guide to monetary
12. These propositions clearly imply that monetary policy is
important and that what is important about monetary policy is
its effect on the quantity of money, not on bank credit or total
credit or interest rates. Wide swings in the rate of change
of the quantity of money are evidently destabilizing and should
be avoided. Beyond this, different monetarists draw different
conclusions. Some conclude that the monetary authorities should
make deliberate changes in the rate of monetary growth in order
to offset other forces making for instability; these changes
should be gradual and small and make allowance for the lags
involved. Others maintain that not enough is known about the
relations between changes in the quantity of money and in prices
and output to assure that a discretionary monetary policy will
do good rather than harm. They believe that a wiser policy would
be simply to have the quantity of money grow at a steady rate
over time

Good ol' boy
(Tue Dec 30 1997 12:06 - ID#26345)
Gold will never be just another commodity. It is money as it fits the definition-recognizable, rare, transportable, divisable, and desirable. Women love the stuff. Anywhere in this world, if you have gold, you can get about anything you want.

Paper first came into use as money as a representative of gold held by some depository. It logically followed that paper could represent other commodities. Then it became accepted, when issued by govenments which had the power tax the people, as representing all of the values a country might have. It is nice stuff when used properly.

But what happens when countries run amuck as they quite often do? There are examples galore as to why people should have a very healthy suspicion of paper. It is only as good as people believe it to be. A recent example involving U.S. currency is that Ben Franklins were discounted by 10% in the far east as their were so many counterfits. It seems it had a little problem with the "recognizable" test.

Currently it seems, the U.S. dollar is premier. A good currency will drive a bad currency out of circulation. The Greenback has, for all practical purposes, done this in many countries. Some countries do not even bother to print currency, allowing the dollar to be the de facto curency. It is an enviable position. But it wasn't that long ago that the dollar was declared dead. No one can predict whether the dollar will see a wild ride for some reason which does not appear in our chrystal balls. The only thing we can safely speculate on, given its history, is that it will continue to decrease in value-buying power. The point is that currencies fluctuate against one another depending on the people's confidence which is reflected by the currencies buying power or acceptability. They also fluctuate against gold which is a money not issued by any government. Occasionally, currencies are totally unaccepable and go out of existence, but the gold remains.

Gold has been used as money because it fits the definition of money. Paper currencies will come and go, but gold will always be there. People, rightfully suspicious of the governments which issue currency, will sleep a little better knowing they have a stash of the stuff buried in their backyards or gracefully adorning their loved ones.

Governments may rid themselves of the noble metal, but if they get in trouble and find that no one wants their currency and that their vodka and cabbages are difficult or impossible to barter with, they may wish that they had saved a little gold for a rainy day as it would buy whatever they wanted.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 12:07 - ID#426220)
XAU & HUI well off their lows of the day. Show good divergence from precious metals:

Barb Hughes
(Tue Dec 30 1997 12:15 - ID#20783)
vronsky RE: comex spec's 99.5 or 999.5
See: COMEX Contract specifications

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Tue Dec 30 1997 12:17 - ID#18385)
Happy Holidays - Happy New Year
Because of time ( and now vacation ) constraints I haven't been spending enough time at our discussion group to follow and respond to much of the messaging.

This is just a brief message to wish everyone all the best for holidays and the new year. I hope that 1998 is a good year for gold, which it almost has to be compared to 1997. But more importantly it should be a healthy and prosperous year for all regardless of whether the value of gold continues in the same direciton.

At the risk of assuming that the last trading day of the year will be unexciting, I thought this would be an appropriate time to post a gold graph of 1997. Unfortunately our offices are closed and so our computer guy isn't available to append it to our historical price and chart section. If anyone else has made one, I'd ask them to post it here even though it isn't bound to look very pretty.

TECH DEPT: I know, everything's going wrong. Our offices are closed for the holidays until Jan 5, 1998 while the website continues to run on auto-pilot. Our computers will be sent for some re-training on the return.


(Tue Dec 30 1997 12:17 - ID#318172)
Can anyone please refer me to a site where I can obtain fresh spot prices on the pm's; Kitco seems to be down. Thanks in advance.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 12:23 - ID#373403)
Consumer Confidence Up
That must be because they still have their money after this X-Mas season. I ended the year up a few percent but as I operate a retail store in a highly affluent suburb of Chicago, I do not rely on December as a month to do extra business. Most jewelry stores expect to do 20-30% of their annual business in December and from what I understand from discussions on a jewelers trading network I belong to, it did not happen.

My wife also reports that the malls were dead for most of the season. Even if numbers are up, there is such a glut of retail in the United States that per store sales are probably down. Is it good for the economy for higher aggregates GNP yet less healthy balance sheets due to overexpansion?

Office Max opened up a few miles from here and put out all the small mom and pop stationary stores. Capitalism, the strong shall supercede the weak. Now Office Depot opens up accross from Office Max. Both will not survive. Investors lose, employees lose, consumers lose ( higher prices with less competition ) . The only one who seems to gain is the showcase manufacturers because every store opens with fresh infusions of capital and who wants to start out with used showcases?

The labor market is in the same kind of trouble based on our overreliance on aggregate numbers in policy making. Low unemployment numbers and high corporate profits mask the growing disparity between those at the top and those at the bottom. Investor and executive compensation are at all time highs so everything looks good. Those at the bottom, the ever growing ranks of minimum wage earners tell a different story. Middle executives with large 401K earnings in the stock market are loathe to spend discretionary money as more of their ranks are laid off to start their own consulting business with their former employers as the main customer.

These masks are starting to come off and the ugliness is showing. Yes we can export inflation and import lower prices but we also import lower wages for our domestic labor and the Asian deflation is a consequence of our exported inflation. Our manufacturing base will suffer through global competition and our domestic consumption will fall due to real wage declines.

Short term strategies are starting to unwind and the me first policy employed by the baby boomers will cause my X generation to refuse to fully fund medicaid and social security. We are a more self reliant generation and will demand the same of you.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 12:26 - ID#93130)
WERT: We are in accord. I would be interested in reading your opinion on Ashanti, since you are well-informed of mining in the area. The technical performance of the stock seemingly does not reflect on the good fundamentals of the company, as I understand them. However, the adverse technical performance could be due to that there is no historic support as almost everyone who has purchased the stock since its offering has lost money - perhaps reflected recently by tax selling - and funds certainly have not made money on the stock which gets tiring after a time and harms portfolio performance. Technical performce should improve improve next year with tax-loss selling out of the way and end of year fund portfolio adjustments effected- and what should be favorable quarter to quarter comparisons regardless of the price of gold. If it does not, something else obviously must be adversely affecting the stock.

John Disney__A
(Tue Dec 30 1997 12:34 - ID#24140)
Dont mess with Mistah Fibonacci
for Cmax

was it you who also observed that the fall in the

gold silver ratio had followed a direct fibonacci

- 0.618 ( close as dammit ) ?? I thought it

was ruined this morning when silver moved up against

gold but now things seem to be shaping up properly.

Imagine gold maybe moving UP against silver - that

would be nice. It is also very strong in dmarks, swiss,

and stirling

For Zee-

Tgl only surfaced to chastise me and run away - when

the Aurator unmasked him - he is a phantom of the

internet - floats like a bee - stings like a butterfly.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 12:34 - ID#426220)
Barb Hughes: Just what the doctor ordered. many thx on behalf of the Korean Futures Exchange ( KOFEX ) . If you will give me your email address I will youa token of KOFEX's appreciation.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 12:37 - ID#426220)



Major Gold Trading Centers Around the World. Many Gold price links, including closing bullion and gold coin prices. Also shows live GOLD TRADING in London, Singapore, Tokyo & the COMEX:

(Tue Dec 30 1997 12:37 - ID#333131)
Mick, Karlitto and SDRer, On Milton's Paradise Lost
Mick, I agree entirely. I think it's possible that Greenspan is being affected and reasured by gold's price in dollars.

Karlitto,Thanks for the reference. Do you suppose he had any of the Dec. figures on Monetary base when he was interviewed?

SDRer, Thanks for the summary of Friedman's observations. I went looking for a convenient precis and couldn't find it. Was that from the net?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 12:45 - ID#246224)
Gold = The Ultimate Bank
Moral vacuums in 'power centers' ( finance, politics, military, religion ) are precursors to collapses. Trust and faithfullness are replaced by appearances. This extraction of 'what is' and mixture of 'what is' with 'what is not' occures slowly until the whole is one gigantic, substanceless bubble ready to pop. And it does pop because that is the nature of bubbles.

Paper represents trust. We trade on paper what is supposedly real. As the substance of trust is eviscerated by lies only the paper remains - and its past reputation; the appearance of honesty. Who would believe that paper of one kind or another will be worthless tommorrow? If we did than we would rid ourselves of that paper and reach for what is real. Many move from one type of paper to another type of paper. This is like jumping from one bubble to the next ( hoping that it does not pop before you can jump to the third one! ) .

As Americans ( since I am one and write from this perspective ) we have had no real life experience with tru systemic weakness such as most other nations in the world have experienced. We have lived in a world entirely different from Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, France, Italy, Greece, Poland, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, India, China, Japan or Korea, to name a few. In fact, what other nation on earth at this time has had the experience of relative stability and security as we have?

My point is this: tommorrow has never been certain for most people alive today. Paper in other parts of this dear old world of ours is always looked upon through a different 'set of glasses' than here in America. It is considered an expediance, a lie which is useful for a time. Hence the most recent news ( Oh my! NOT! a surprise ) that Korea's "real" debt need is US$250 Bln, not the original ( name a date and amount ) 'estimate' ( which has been denied and then increased regularly ) . And this just after a meeting with the big boys to discuss 'rolling over' the loans.

Get real.

Stroboscopic photography captures the extreme moments of ultra-fast events which one could never see with one's own eyes. A picture sequence of a bursting bubble or balloon shows that the sphere does not instantaneously disintegrate. Instead the opening in the surface chases the receeding outer layer as it unwraps itself from around the space it held within it.

We are seeing this occure, this 'unwrapping' of trust and faithfulness from around the moral vacuum of entire nations. We are part of that skin which will soon be chased back by the expanding opening of reality: the reality that there is no substance behind the appearance of this current 'system' of trust.

Get real.

That is the only strategy which will not be destroyed by this bursting bubble/balloon.

DISCLAIMER: Many have compared the holding of gold and other precious metals to recent highly inflated equity and other asset values and concluded that these metals represent a 'losing investment'. They claim that the size of a ballon is much more important that what it contains. In addition they say that since the balloon has not popped then it certainly *WILL NOT* pop in the future. Unfortunately they will not guarantee your assets against such a calamity. In fact no one will. Monetary inflation and risk of loss are always discussed at the beginning of financial investment courses, and then buried by the details about 'all the ways you can make money'.

Gold is the ultimate bank. It is no one else's obligation or promise to pay, not even a government's. It does not depend upon a nation's existence or reputation in order to assure its value in future times and to future generations.

The question for each person is this: do you use gold as your 'ultimate bank'? Are you continually salting away a portion of your income and profits from investments into this 'ultimate bank'? If you are not and this has not occured to you then please think about it seriously, particularly if you are an American citizen such as I.

You may not believe the world will end tommorrow. You may not believe that the crisis in Asia will reach our shores in any significant way. But you should hear Mr. Templeton, founder of Templeton Funds, when he says that gold is an important part of anyone's portfolio. Mr. Templeton will not guarrantee any of your investments in his funds. I believe, though, that he would admit that one ounce of gold today will contiue to be an ounce of gold in the future, whether it is a bright or a dreary one.

Get real: Gold.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 12:55 - ID#287277)
Carl, re: Friedman....
Probably from the net, but I'm not sure. I'll be happy to email
the monograpph to you if you're interested. Friedman writes with
clarity, which is what oft makes his public lectures a

Also--consider his statement:
"Wide swings in the rate of change of the quantity of money are evidently destabilizing..."

What is horrific this time around is the "virtual" quality of
money: banks have 'virtual' assets; Korea is being 'lent' 'virtual'
IMF money... If we don't applaud, TinkerBelle DIES! ( and I'm no longer
sure our applause will save her... )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 13:01 - ID#26793)
That is just enough to pay the Wall Street bonuses ( grin thing ) . We need to see how much of that Monetary Base is bank reserves. For example, last week Barron's showed FR bank reserves up 1.917 billion, Free Reserves up 1.183 billion ( page MW101 ) . That money is not inflationary ( yet ) . If those reserves end up in the domestic market then inflation is in the cards. If it is sucked into the black hole in Korea it will end up scattered around the globe in foreign bank reserves.

No question the whole thing is a mess and either way the answer remains gold don't you think?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 13:03 - ID#426220)


Money makes the world go-round, the world go-round, the world go-round, money money money money money from the movie which won 8-Oscar Awards: Cabaret ( 1972 ) .

A monetary theory first verbalized by David Ricardo in 1810, and later endorsed by Dr. Irving Fisher in the 1920s: The price ( dollar ) of gold is related to the money stock growth rate. Thus the price of gold is an indicator of Federal Reserve monetary policy. An expansion in money growth results in a rise in the dollar price of gold, a decline in interest rates, and an eventual decline in the dollar - or ANY CURRENCY WHOSE MONEY SUPPLY IS RAPIDLY EXPANDING!

Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics, Dr. Milton Friedman dedicated an entire book to this hypothesis. In BRIGHT PROMISES, DISMAL PERFORMANCE: An Economists Protest, he brilliantly proves the theorem that over the long-term inflation follows money.

Standing the test of time, the well accepted truism - that one of the best fuels for increasing gold prices is growth in money supply - is particularly pertinent in todays international monetary climate. NEARLY ALL the industrial powers AND ASIAN TIGERS are vying to see who can increase their money supply the fastest!

Per recently published data the M-3 money supply ( the widest measure of money growth which encompasses M-1 and M-2 ) is exploding AT A BLISTERING 16% ANNUAL RATE, WHICH IS MORE THAN TRIPLE THE FED's GUIDLINES... not seen since World War II.

It is just a matter of months ( and investor patience ) that the time tested principle of INFLATION FOLLOWS MONEY will exert its force - where inflation begins increasing, causing gold values to accelerate. Needless to say gold shares with their built-in leverage ( gearing, as the Brits say ) will soar in value.

These extraordinarily high monetary growth rates will soon lead to much higher inflation worldwide. And considering the highly contagious nature and persuasiveness of the CURRENT worldwide increase in money supply, it is not an exaggeration to wait for ( indeed to expect ) gold share value increases reminiscent of the late 1970s!

Gold is the most monetary of all commodities, and its price correlates over the long-term directly with the growth rate of the money supply. - Investment Strategy & the Money Connection, by Edward J. Cousin.

Uncle Miltie, do you see $500 GOLD IN 1998??

(Tue Dec 30 1997 13:05 - ID#333232)
Coin search help
Tried this on Kitco II - no response.

Grandpa wants to buy a 1997 or 1897 stamped coin set for grandson, to be held 18 years. Looking for high numismatic value, have US$ 1k for total purchase. Seeking suggestions, will follow up with own DD.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 13:06 - ID#426220)

We learn from history that we do not learn from history.

..............- Dr. Milton Friedman, Nobel Laureate in Economics

(Tue Dec 30 1997 13:09 - ID#287277)
Allen, W E L L S A I D !
"The greatest and noblest pleasure men can have in this world is
to discover new truths, and the next is to shake off old prejudices."

You've helped us address both issues!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 13:14 - ID#243250)
SKYLARK re ASHANTI 12:26 post
I'm not that familiar with the company as I try to deal ( invest ) with only those companies who's management I know or have had business dealings with in the past. However, please post the stock symbol and if time permits I'll do some DD. I'm out of here... New Years in the mountains awaits. HAPPY NEW YEAR to you and all other members of this DisFUNctional Family...regards

(Tue Dec 30 1997 13:19 - ID#344308)

don't you just hate it when bonds head south?

the eurodollar------

i've ridden the limb on this market for 6 months. puts
were being given away, and the smoke-signals were
relaying this on a regular basis......opportunity....
patience and perserverance is the key to winning with
options in commodities. plan the attack, muster the forces,
await their arrival, pounce on their ( speculators ) striped furry nubbins,
and hang their smelly hides high, for all to see!

euro-dollars, euro-yen, silver,...............the opportunities
have been presented for all to 'see'...........history tells
the tale.........what's next? p2later--------eya-----

New Kid on the Block
(Tue Dec 30 1997 13:24 - ID#389125)
Christmas Shopping Sluggish?

Retailers hoped-for traffic during Christmas holidays was down. Does that necessarily mean that we spent fewer dollars? Do retailer numbers include dollars spent ordering/spending through on-line catalogs? Perhaps the Baby Boomers were too busy planning how and where to invest their billions for 1998 and had to resort to technological means of shopping.


Dr. R
(Tue Dec 30 1997 13:26 - ID#272267)
@ Gerbernax
Try this for PT stuff:

your welcome

(Tue Dec 30 1997 13:28 - ID#344308)

heating oil below

what do you think happened to the weak longs?

it miraculously is back above .50 and the harvest
completed. snow ski money for the holidays..........

a put option ( chee ( a ) p ) ( hong kong chicken flu ) would have saved a lot of the weak longs positions......options.................

insurance that allows you to play with the big boys....
you can touch them, but they can touch only what you
allow. ( premium )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 13:28 - ID#426220)
YEAR END MARKET REVIEW Current Fundamentals

Dr. Thomas Drake generously shares with the GOLD-EAGLE readership a synopsis of his erudite and comprehensive YEAR END MARKET REVIEW.

It is indeed a perceptive and incisive analysis... must reading for the serious market student and professional. Also, very illuminating are the two 23-year charts of GOLD and the US Dollar.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 13:34 - ID#26793)
And the winner is! (envelope please) (riiiip) GERMANY!

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 30 1997 13:44 - ID#287367)
@ cmh
What do you mean by a "stamped coin" set? The 1997 US Gold Proof set ( 1 oz, 1/2 oz, 1/4 oz, and 1/10 oz proof ) is available for about $1000

(Tue Dec 30 1997 13:51 - ID#333131)
Donald, Do bears sleep in the woods?
Either way, YES!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 13:52 - ID#298259)
XAU - on the move
Now up 2.43 pts ( 3.36% ) to 74.65

Barb Hughes
(Tue Dec 30 1997 13:52 - ID#20783)
Vronsky...glad to help

(Tue Dec 30 1997 13:52 - ID#269191)
Hasn't monetarism been discredited yet?
Let's see. Irving Fisher predicted stocks were on a permanently high
plateau just before the crash in 1929. On Wall Street Week in 1983
I heard Milton Friedman state we were headed for a return to double
digit inflation because the Fed was letting the money supply grow at
double digit rates of growth. As I recall inflation went the other

Why does anybody listen to these people? Monetarism as an economic
theory has been totally discredited. The problems with it are legion:
The most obvious problem is they can't even decide what aggregate
is the money supply. Further the theory totally ignores the role of debt which is why Friedman's predictions missed the mark in the 80's. He
didn't see that the geometric growth of debt would slow the velocity
of circulation. Why the slowdown in velocity? Because as the debt burden grows a greater portion of each new dollar created goes to debt service rather to spending on goods and services.

There's another problem: monetarists advocate a "steady expansion of the
money supply in line with the long run capability of the economy to grow". Sounds good. The problem is that this steady expansion of money
causes distortions in the loan markets. Interest rates are held at artifically low levels and consequently investment is skewed. Investment
projects appear economically sound at the artifically low rates that in reality are not sound. At this point money must be expanded at a more
rapid rate or the markets will adjust and the unsound projects will go
bust. At this point money must be expanded at a more rapid rate to maintain the illusion. If the monetary expansion is stopped the economy goes into recession or depression.

Maybe the Austrian School which formulated the only theory of the trade
cycle that predicted the Great Depression could get some equal time.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 13:57 - ID#333131)
Donald, Do bears sleep in the woods?
Either way, YES!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 14:00 - ID#269409)
@ Karlito, Miro, John Disney, Cherokee........setting the record straight
The majority of your posts today, are as substantive and well reasoned as anything I've seen on Kitco in a long time. Genious, objectivity, and unemotional analysis based on fact, is in short supply here so keep posting! Out of curiousity, what is your background? You have a command of economics that I have seen from no one else on this site including the so called "analysts".


Re your early AM post. WHile It's true that much of my own investment gains were in a 401 K, I also have discertionary savings investments apart from the 401K, which have been invested almost entirely in Silver. My net investment savings with both breaks down to approx. 20% in my own company's stock, 45% in 401 K "cash" MMF, and 35% in Silver & Platinum. ( With a little of that in a few dozen Gold St. Gaudens & AE Proofs ) .

All of these "discreationary" savings gains were made in stocks, at rates of capital apprecition that well exceeded what I accomplished in 401K, thus it's not too hyperbolic to have made the statements I made earlier re converting stock gains to precious metals. Also, ( I'm embarrassed to admit this ) , I am considering BORROWING against my 401 K to make some further precious metlas investments, including possibly some plays in Silver mining stocks, since my Ameritrdae accoount is fairly small. I've made a few such "volatility" plays in SSC, and SSRIF the past few months, and they have done well enough, that I'd like to try putting a larger pile of chips on the table. Widders & orphans, don't try this at home, it's a "fools" game to try and precisely time market moves, especially for a rank amateur like moi.

John Disney, all

Mr. Disney's 03:27 post, adequately points out the difference in posting style and substance between he and I. There is nothing I can add to it, to further clarify the differences between us. A reading of any of my early AM posts that preceeded his, will point out said differences adequately,


Of course all bull markets have retractions from highs as they build a support point for the next run-up. Silver is no different. It was your numbers I didn't swallow, not the ever higher cyclic waves that I was questioning. I'd say $6.04 or so is a good low end support point for Silver. Time will tell eh?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 14:00 - ID#286250)
Donald, (winners, envelope are in fine form)
Although I don't think you're going to beat "Here Spot, here

Interesting to note Belegium ( debt at 167% of GDP not too long
ago ) and Italy in there lending their 'virtual money'...

m a d n e s s!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 14:05 - ID#286199)
Your post about Monetarists vs. an unamed Austrian economic school reminds me of the bragging contests between Alaska and Texas some years back. An Alaskan was heard to say "We have enough gold to build a fence 8 feet high all the way around Texas". The Texan's response was "You build it and if we like it we'll buy it".

I am not sure you have done justice to the Monetarists, but please present the Austrian school of economics point of view and if we like it we'll buy it.

John Disney__A
(Tue Dec 30 1997 14:18 - ID#24140)
For Karlito and lbg

I must congratulate you both on your recent postings - no "I told

you so's", no neverending insults to Puetz, - absolutely marvellous.

Keep on the good - politeness is wonderful, isn't it.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 14:18 - ID#286250)
The Dollar and the NWO
Before the next currency crash catches you off-guard, the major Austrian School experts assess our present monetary situation and what we can do about it. ( this was held in SEP 1995, they have foresight at the
Institute! )

Ludwig Von Mises Institute, alive & well & worth reading & supporting

Mr. Mick
(Tue Dec 30 1997 14:23 - ID#345321)
"Korea buying time only" - CNBC
They just had a cut to a young woman named Chang who said that the $10 Billion was only to buy time, and there were "no solutions" to the problem.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 14:32 - ID#26793)
Yield curve news

(Tue Dec 30 1997 14:38 - ID#344308)

fidelity is not going to announce their in/out-flows
from their mutual funds any-more!!

why in the world would this huge firm not want its'
numbers publicized?

the outflows have created a snowball effect and they are
trying to stem the flow on all fronts. smart money is suppossed
to move first, and in this information age, news travels
quite rapidly....

this is very important, and portends the coming stock crash.

they were very proud of the huge weekly multi-billion in-flows.
they want nothing to do with these new numbers. spin doctors
are setting-up shop to white-wash the real picture.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 14:39 - ID#286199)
Burst mode
Am having trouble getting through...very slow..

Glenn: HM has ticked up on very heavy volume, earlier than I thought. BMG is up smartly also.

SDR: Thanks for the Von Mises site. My first economics prof was of this school ( very rare in 1974 ) . I used Hazlitt's book "Economics in One Lesson" as part of private school curriculum in the early 80's. I am listening to Walter Williams and Thomas Sowell on the radio! The Keynesian demons are being driven out.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 14:43 - ID#26793)
Battle Mountain up 1/2 today

(Tue Dec 30 1997 14:47 - ID#316232)
Today's action
Unmentioned this morning is the fact that the long bond rate started up after the latest approximation of Korea total debt. Opening around 5.91, it has progressively advanced to 5.97%, a significant one day change, and probably represents flight from US treasuries, and probably positive for gold. It is matched by money moving into the larger gold stocks included in XAU.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 14:48 - ID#26793)
Industrial Bank of Japan placed on negative credit watch

(Tue Dec 30 1997 14:49 - ID#78116)
DEJ: Austrians vs Monetarists
I don't think you will find a great deal of difference between these two. Friedman himself acknowledges that he stands on the shoulders of Hayek, the leading Austrian economist of this century when he developed his modern version of monetary theory.

I dont think I would classify Fischer as a monetarist, certainly not a modern monetarist. He was much more of a classicalist in the spirit of Riccardo, Smith and yes, Karl Marx. His forecast of continuing prosperity in October 1929 is often thrown in his face and is most unfair. I don't know that any of us who would want to be known for the worst forecast we ever made. His quantity theory of money is still a classic, albeit a bit dated due to the globalization of finance.

As to monetarism, far from being discredited, it is probably the mainstream ideology of most practicing economists. Which is not to say that there are not problems associated with it. However, if you track money supply you will get a feel for where the economy is going both in terms of prices and output. Its track record is not perfect, but its not bad compared to most anything else.

The biggest short coming with monetarism has to do with the volitility of money velocity. It changes over time due to changes in everything from debt levels to institutional changes to what we use as money.

As to the credibility of Milton Friedman, I would have to argue that while he has been wrong at times, he has certainly stood the test of time and probably has changed the understanding of and certainly the teaching of economics more today than any other living individual.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 14:50 - ID#333232)
Coin search II
Crystal Ball,

Thank you for the quick response. Phraseology-R-not-us
"Stamped" simply referred to the minting date being prominent.
This is more or less a homework assignment from grandpa to dad ( me ) .
The old F4U/F7F jock/geologist has left it to me to come up with an attractive,value retaining GOLD memento for his grandson.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 14:51 - ID#225433)
CHEROKEE-YR 12/30-14:38 (Fidelity)
AMEN BROTHER!! That one got VERY brief coverage on TV this morning, but I thought it was quite significant...couldn't agree with you more!!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 14:54 - ID#26793)
Daewoo and Korea Merchant Bank downgraded

(Tue Dec 30 1997 14:55 - ID#344308)


do you think the bond pits are getting volatile?

volatility is to options, what uranium is to the atomic bomb!!

oh, i like that............where's that button?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 14:58 - ID#344308)


do you think the bond pits are getting volatile?

volatility is to options, what uranium is to the atomic bomb!!

oh, i like that............where's that button?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 15:02 - ID#26793)
China places restrictions on Internet connections, Hong Kong, much more

(Tue Dec 30 1997 15:07 - ID#26793)
Today some say Great White Father in Washington not keep promise.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 15:14 - ID#333131)
Haven't seen much humor here lately.
A female Doc friend told me recently that she sometimes gets ask if having anal sex can result in pregnancy. Her reply when ask is: "It is very rare, but when it does happen the baby always turns out to be a lawer."

Lurker 777
(Tue Dec 30 1997 15:25 - ID#317247)
Good call on bonds. Thanks

(Tue Dec 30 1997 15:26 - ID#286250)
Speed, at maybe slow but truly on target...
Williams & Sowell are two great favorites of mine. I admire men
of conviction and character! ( Wish I could hear from either one
with some degree of regularity. )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 15:26 - ID#26793)
Consumer confidence at 28 year high

John Disney__A
(Tue Dec 30 1997 15:31 - ID#24140)
To producer

In answering your question I will refer to "the sacred

spreadsheet" - which I have dispatched to some 25

lucky but probably confused recipients who are either

trying to fish the file out of the recesses of their

computer or , having done that, make some sense of it.

To add to the confusion, I have revised ddeeps from

the original sheet I sent to you sportsfans and I will

be sending a new sheet with ddeep done properly.

The file will be rich text - .rtf.

At a gold price of less than 350, ddeep is not attractive.

However, at a 400$ gold price, $1.62 for a share of DD

buys you $115 of profits on the gold in the ground

that DD holds. At 450, this rises to $256. By way of

comparison, 6$ for dries buys you $25 of future profits

at $450 gold. However dries gives you back $4.5 at $350.

Abx only gives you back $41 with gold at $450 for $19

spent now.

So, with gold at a $400 or so, DD is the most highly

geared of all. Harmony is a close 2nd, and starts to

break even at a lower gold price.

Thus, In my opinion, its a little early for a big

commitment to deeps ( as much as I like it ) . I'd rather

go for Harmony, or for randgold that owns both harmony

and deeps.

Similarly well geared mines are randfontein and


(Tue Dec 30 1997 15:31 - ID#426220)

Donald__A ( China places restrictions on Internet connections, Hong Kong )

I can attest to the fact that China has been slowly but inexorably closing the flow of Internet traffic from Hong Kong. At the beginning of this year Hong Kong, accesses to the GOLD-EAGLE website were running about 100-125 hits per month. From early March there was a dramatic reduction in this traffic. Today I get more accesses from Cook Islands than from Hong Kong. In fact this week we have yet to see any visit from HK.

I would imagine this is just another example how the Giant Red Dragon is assimulating the tiny island... not to make light of this, but it reminds me of the BORG's favorite saying in meeting a new victim: "You will be assimulated... to resist is futile." Yet another monumental reason for those in the general area ( i.e. Southeast Asia ) to convert what they can into GOLD.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 15:39 - ID#344308)

consumer confidence @28 year high--------------cnbc--

the masses know of nothing, except the backs of their eyelids...

just another indicator that this paper-tiger has climbed to
the highest possible pinnacle--------

everybody and their dog is on-board--------except goldbugs........
wooo-woooo....the hellbound ( stock ) train ( savoy brown--excellent song )
has left the stop----chaos-ville and flux-vegas...
with ink-stained toilet paper for all....wooooo-woooooooooo.--allaboard..

cdotssmfatimm!; --mad cow fever, chicken fever........paper-tiger fever--

(Tue Dec 30 1997 15:44 - ID#26793)
Swiss exposure to Korea. Year old numbers just released

(Tue Dec 30 1997 15:46 - ID#269409)
@ Carl humor?
Carl@ 15:14, if you "Havn't seen much humor here" you're not lookin! I fall out of my chair daily!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 15:53 - ID#78116)
Since you asked

I am an economist by education, and a management consultant by trade. I am a partner in one of the soon to be Big 4 accounting firms. I travel almost constantly mostly in the US but occassionally to the rest of the world. This past year I got to Europe a couple of times, Japan, Mexico and Brazil. I write, work as an expert witness in court cases, consult to companies or their creditors in bankruptcy or workout and do quite a bit of public speaking.


(Tue Dec 30 1997 15:53 - ID#269409)
@ Consumer confidence, highest in 28 years! (Don't they know the sky is falling?)

Tuesday December 30, 3:21 pm Eastern Time

U.S. Treasuries end down in pre-holiday trading

By John P. Hughes

NEW YORK, Dec 30 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Treasury securities prices closed down on Tuesday in light pre-holiday trading, pressured by a
strong reading on consumer confidence.

An announcement by several large U.S. banks that they would allow South Korean borrowers to roll over loan payments on Monday
spurred equity markets higher on Tuesday. It helped to stem some of the flight-to-quality buying of Treasuries seen in recent weeks.

The 30-year Treasury bond was closing down 24/32 at 102.00 to yield 5.98 percent.

Consumer confidence rose to its highest level in 28 years in December at 134.5 from a revised level of 128.1 in November. The
Conference Board said that was the highest level since June of 1969.

``The strength of the U.S. economy, especially in the labor market, continues to lift consumers' spirits and bolster their expectations,''
said Lynn Franco, associate director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center.

The New York Purchasing Managers December survey also showed a modest increase to 62.1 from November's 60.8, but that was
not a major market mover.

Bond prices sagged after an ``extraordinarily'' high expectations index, said John Ryding, managing director and senior economist at
Bear Stearns. He said it was the highest since 1984.

``The bond market continues to ignore fundamental U.S. economics, as it should,'' Ryding said. Events in Asia were dominating
players minds, he said.

He said the market should remain quiet until the nonfarm payrolls report, but at the high levels seen in recent months even that report
may fail to generate much volume.

``People don't like it any more,'' said William Sullivan, senior vice president and director of money market research at Dean Witter
Reynolds, of the bond market.

He said the apparent force driving the market lower was the stabilization of Asian markets, South Korea in particular. He said the
agreement by U.S. banks to slow repayments by South Korean borrowers prompted an acknowledgement that the flight-to-quality
buying of Treasuries seen in the fourth quarter may have been overblown.

Domestic concerns also were growing, he said.

``There was also the fact that Asia's not occupying everyone's minds anymore,'' Sullivan said. ``New home sales held at historically
high levels, there was evidence retail sales picked up before Christmas, and the Conference Board's survey puts a thumb right in the
eye of the University of Michigan's survey.''

The University of Michigan said its index fell to 102.1 from 107.2 the prior month.

Sullivan said market sentiment on the U.S. economy remained very, very bullish going into 1998.

In late trading, three-month bill rates were closing four basis points lower at 5.25 percent. Six-month bills were off one basis point at
5.27 percent and year bills were up one basis point at 5.26 percent.

Two-year notes fell 1/32 at 99-27/32 to yield 5.71 percent. Five-year notes were off 5/32 at 99-13/32 to yield 5.76 percent. And
10-year notes ended at 102-12/32, down 9/32, to yield 5.80 percent

(Tue Dec 30 1997 15:55 - ID#28585)
Happy '98! There is a golden glow on the horizon....
The Wall Street bulls have never looked so worried...on a percentage basis, the climb in the Dow this past week has been absolutely appalling...where is all that year-end mega-bonus money going? Probably stashed on the sidelines.

It is imperative that gold producers send a united message to the markets at the immediate start of '98. The best message: further announcements of mine closures...further announcements of suspension of forward sales practices.....further announcements of corporate consolidation. Add to this a powerful pro-gold propaganda effort aimed at CB's and investors.

If the message is forceful and widely disseminated through various media,
then the first week of '98 might kick off with the greatest short squeeze ever witnessed in the precious metals market.

The explosion in the silver price augurs an even greater explosion in gold.


(Tue Dec 30 1997 15:56 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Lazy
Where's EB + Tort??~~~~

(Tue Dec 30 1997 15:57 - ID#78116)
Consumer confidence
I never put much stock in the consumer confidence numbers. The very fact that the Conf Board numbers conflict so dramatically with the U of Michigan survey this time is reason for doubt. I also never was able to find much relationship between the confeidence numbers and much of anything else other than employment growth. If ya got a job, your confident. It says nothing about spending, or the future.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:01 - ID#26793)
U.S. "experts" say China will not devalue currency

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:02 - ID#254269)
Dow up 124 points (1.59%), S & P 500 up 17.31 (1.82%), 30 yr bond at

5.971%, volume on NYSE 498 million shares

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:05 - ID#269409)
@ Karlito.......JohnDisney
Thanks Karlito, that background helps explain why yours is the best presentation of ecomomic fundamentals that drive the markets, that I've seen from ANY posters at this site.

While I don't always agree with every point you make, you always have solid, sound, rationale and expertise behind your opnions. Kitco participants could learn a lot if they stopped bashing you and started listening more closely.


re your 14:18 I'm completely baffled by your statement "Keep on the good - politeness is wonderful, isn't it."

Firstly, you have no firsthand knowledge of what politeness is, no respect for same, and no practice of same so it confuses me why you'd make such a statement.One need only loot at your exchanges with Haggis to be entirely confused by your sudden interest in "politeness".

Secondly, I don't necessarily agree with the statement anyway, when it comes to such issues as whether "Market crash" progostications based on eclipsed Moons and such, are being discussed by those with opposing points of view. Particularly when said "progosticators" have a following of investors who respect said "prognosticators" as being "experts" in the credentialed investment advisor field. In such cases, I think politeness takes a back seat to harsh scrutiny, critical review of historical records, satirical comment, and reality checks....

Finally, when someone who was born and raised in the U.S. with a silver spoon in his mouth, sent to school by his parents, been spoiled rotten
by having no exposure to what life is really about, makes a statement like "I have no loyalty to this country"...such a person will NEVER get politeness in return from me, nor should they.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:07 - ID#28585)
My unusually large proboscis is sending me sharp sensations...I haven't felt this type of sharp tingling since 1993!!

OhmiGod...I think I smell a short squeeze in gold lurking round the corner. It'll be HUUUUUUGGGE! I mean...f_______ing HUUUUUUGE!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:07 - ID#252150)
Tzadeak@your 01.46
I concur with your weapons of mass deception. Incredibly, they have been extremely successfull at calming Asian fears. United, the CB's have a formidable array of weapons at their diposal. If they can, with a little pin prick, let a little air out of the bubble, who knows how long this mania can continue? It can be very expensive to bet against them. If they are successful,we may have to scale down our hopes for gold. I would be happy with an orderly rise to 340-50 in 98.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:12 - ID#78116)
Gold as Money
Good old Boy.... You defined money as anything that is:

recognizable, rare, transportable, divisable, and desirable

My wife fits all those descriptions ( well maybe not divisible ) , but if I refered to her as money she'd wack me over the head and rightly so.

Most economists, and central bankers define money as having two important functions: It is a medium of exchange and its a store of value.

Money as a medium of exchange means I can take it out, and easily trade it for something else. Paper money, checks, credit cards all fit this description. Gold does not. You would be hard pressed to take one of your gold eagles down to the local grocery store and get much consideration for it. You would definitely draw a crowd, but I don't think you would be leaving with a quart of milk or a loaf of bread. You would have to change your gold into currency... ie into money to finish that shopping spree.

As a store of value, paper certainly has its shortcomings. The history of paper money is litered with examples of hyperinflation, bonds papering the walls and wheelbarrows of the stuff needed to make a simple purchase. Which is why you need an information standard. It is the information standard of today that is constantly giving us all minute to minute feedback on the value of any particular currency. It is the market that protects you from the venality of politicians.

Gold as a store of value is not all a bed of roses either. I wont bore you with the data of the shrinking value of gold but it too has failed to hold its value over the past 15 years or so.

So when you come down to it, gold fails the medium of exchange test and gets a low grade on the store of value test. Using that standard, I come to the conclusion that gold is not money.
(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:13 - ID#431203)
meltdown, & Tom Jefferson
Wasn't it Thomas Jefferson who said: "If a nation allows it's bankers, to control it's money, first by inflation, then by deflation; one day their children will wake-up homeless, on the continent their fathers conquered."......?

All evidence to date, continues to support my 9/27/97 discussion-grp. post:

"When the 'tent' collapses,

it will not be the center-post

that goes first;

it will be the side-posts,

and even the stakes.

.... "

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:14 - ID#26793)
China puts the kybosh on free flow of internet traffic. Fidelity puts the kybosh on free flow of fund traffic. Either would make successful mushroom farmers.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:18 - ID#28585)
There is a particular smell to Bull Anxiety...a particular smell to Gold

My unusually protuberant and perceptive proboscis is saying, for the first time in years: GOLD SHORT SQUEEZE!!!

Can't you feel it in the air tonight, Oh Lord?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:18 - ID#255284)
It's no flaming arrow...
Ted G'day
an icicle javelin hurling your way about now.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:20 - ID#31868)
15 years - This I do not believe is the store of value timetable that is the perspicacious specific individuals are referencing when discussing this finite topic.

Barb Hughes
(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:22 - ID#20783)
RE: Hong Kong Internet traffic
Am still able to reach the following:

Hong Kong Futures Exchange LTD

Hong Kong Monetary Authority

The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong

Hong Kong Securities & Futures Commission

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:24 - ID#26793)
Backwardation (did I spell that right?) in silver, closing gold etc.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:27 - ID#270224)
Disney Gold Data
Please include silver data if you have it in the data you e-mailed so that the mine profitability and share economics can be properly assessed as a function of gold or silver prices. If copper, zinc or lead data can be included it will be even more valuable. "Gold only" data limits the ability to properly value each investment.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:28 - ID#31868)
In reading further of your recent post I find you mention paper. This as an instrument must be backed by a government, and must have the rule of law behind it so as to make the citizens have faith in it. We are currently witnessing on a global scale what happens when currencies are not tied to gold.

It is my contention that you can continually pull the bankers sack over the eyes of the masses but eventually when it is pulled off only the people holding gold retain any of their previous wealth. Those without, end up without.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:31 - ID#269409)
@ Karlito.....information as money vs, Gold as money
Karlito, the point you have so eloquently made here today, is a point I was trying to make months ago here when we go through the endless cycle of discussion on why we are not in a 1929 era economy.

With the totality of worldwide economic information a mouse click away, we must incorparte the sea changes in economic basics, into our lexicon of strategic analysis, or we will become extinct as hopelessly outdated species. ( Dinasours=Diehard GoldBugs? )

The Gloom and Doom crowd insists fiat currencies will create the biggest collapse in human history. Let me add a heart "amen" to your view that the greatest collapses, boom/bust cycles in human history, took place when we were ON the archaic inflexible "Gold standard".

As I tried to mention a couple weeks ago, ask a South Korean a year from now, whether his boom/bust cycle lifestyle of today, remains preferable to the perpetual poverty and starvation of yesterday.

Folks here "just don't get it" when it comes to the issues of current economics, and whether they would be "better off" fundamentally, by having some outdated monetary link to an inert metal.

I don't feel as strongly as you do that Gold will be completely discarded as a "store of value" or that it's headed for $100 eventually. I think folks will still turn to it for asthetic, intrinsic, emotional, etc. value in times of calamity.

Nevertheless, as a genuine basis for monetary exchange, Gold is dead. It will no more return to us from the past, then the Abbacus will replace the computer, or fat lamps replace electricity. It's a new era, and Dinosaurs will become extinct! ( As they already partially have ) .

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:32 - ID#26793)
Steve Kaplan yesterday
Evidence of strong physical gold demand is seen in Dubai, where the price of a ten-tolar
gold bar ( about 3-3/4 ounces of pure gold ) is selling for five to six dollars over the official
world spot price, four times the usual premium of about $1.35. Meanwhile, analyst and
investor sentiment in the first world remains sharply bearish; a closed-end mutual fund
called Central Fund of Canada, comprised entirely of gold and silver bullion stored in
vaults and historically trading at par, ended last week at a 12.7% discount to its net asset

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:33 - ID#269409)
@ Tolerant....floating vs. fixed currencies tied to Gold
Herbert Hoover and the FED of 1929 would have LOVED you Tol.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:39 - ID#252150)
Dave in Co,
Waco was a terrible travesty of justice. Had the same slaughter of innocent people, including many children occured in Iran or anywhere else in the world ,it would have been terrible. What really disturbed me was the way people just accepted their ridiculous & lame excuses for the extermination of so many innocents. I'm not really convinced that their intent was evil. I believe it was caused by gross incompetence & stupidity. Then again the media managed to convince a large % of the N. American population that the leader of a 3rd world country was as dangerous as Hitler. I was disgusted with much of our Canadian media who regurgitated much of the same propaganda & bs. I remember phoning a popular radio talk show host & asking him exactly what the authorities were trying to accomplish. I said to him " it seems to me that they wanted to remove them from a large well guarded building where they posed no threat to the general population, & put them in another well guarded building where they posed no threat. Was it really necessary to kill them all?" He had no answer, became belligerent & hung up on me.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:39 - ID#269409)
@ Donald re SILVER
Backwardization is right! Only a 1.6 cent drop in futures contract when the spot price drops .10 cents, and spot remaining way above futures prices! Oh mercy moi...if I was a "big buck" player....futures contracts and options out 3 to 6 months...I'd be drooolin....tempting to risk my retirement fund by borrowing but I'll resist and just hold my physical for now....

Good ol' boy
(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:39 - ID#26362)
Beg to differ-'ol boy. I grant you that I would have a little difficulty to exchange a gold coin for a quart of mklk, but any where in this world, I would have little difficulty trading down until I had something-perhaps local coin- to purchase the milk with. I dare say you could not do as well with your wife ( or at least I haope not ) and I would speculate that the cost of crating her around is agreat more expensive than carrying gold. Gold does not eat or talk back.

One time I had a kilo of gold. My partner said what good is it? I said let us see. So we went down town to a used car lot. I explained to the owner that I did not trust paper money and was dealing in gold. At first he said get out of here. But then he saw my beautiful bar of gold and all sorts of offers were on the table. It was highly negotiable. It was money. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and looks like a duck, it must be a duck. You take a hand full of credit cards and money from various countries and I will take my gold, and I will bet you dollars to donuts that I have a far easier time exchanging my gold than you do your credit cards and funny money.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:41 - ID#31868)
It would never have gotten that far. I would have hung the bastards that TRIED to create the FED, all of them. I would have defended the Constitution and Hoover would have been nothing more that a brand name for a machine that inhales dirt off a carpet.

Oh and the worst phase of our economic history, the future, will certainly not be blamed on gold, on the specific you are correct. It will be blamed on paper which is based on lies. The reason this one will be worse than that which came before it is due to electronic lies which can be created faster than paper, the lying bastard bankers and politicians love that aspect.

Good ol' boy
(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:45 - ID#26362)
I might add that if you tried to cash your wife in, she would probably take you for everything you have. Gold will never do that. Anywhere in this world you can cash it in without difficulty.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:46 - ID#28585)
My unusually sensitive ( and not too meager ) proboscis has never let me helluva gold short squeeze is in the works.



(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:47 - ID#201131)
WSJ article
The article on Indonesia is a must read for investors. It is in todays WSJ.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:49 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 27.29

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:50 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .259

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:50 - ID#269409)
@ Tolerant
OK, let me rephrase it then. Back in the days when there was "honest" trade of goods and commodities, you know, bone spears for gathered berries, and humans could expect to live 22 years old in misery,if lucky without ever knowing the complexity of owning anything, they would have LOVED your philosophy.

Ohhhh how I long for those good old days....

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:50 - ID#255284)
farfel: OPEN THE GOLDEN GATE....'COZ IT'S '98!!! has an exquisite meaning in Cantonese.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:52 - ID#269409)
@ farfel
farfel you insincere troublmaker. Yer just tryin to poke a stick around in a hornet nest to hear buzzin

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:53 - ID#246224)
Thanks for sharing your credentials. Partner in a top 4. Wow! You are part of the game then. Part of the bubble. A true machine cog and lever-ager. Well rewarded for your part in assuring confidence in all that is paper.

Aesop moral - "Distrust interested advice."

I see you as a view
into the heart of the beast.
Smile for the camera.
Another one for the album.
Next cage ..

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:59 - ID#31868)
Your future is about to die. I will prepare the plate for your unhumble pie.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 16:59 - ID#28585)
@Long Gold Baby!!! (aka LGB)
No insincerity!! IT'S ABOUT TO HAPPEN, BABY!!



Pacific Northwest Dave
(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:00 - ID#223187)
Donald- XAU/spot ratio?
I'm alittle bit on the ignorant side about what the gold/spot ratio means. Would you be so kind as to explain it to me briefly?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:01 - ID#26793)
Silver/Gold Ratio = 45.90

(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:01 - ID#252150)
Haggis@your 03.35 to disney
As a Canadian of mostly Scottish descent, I applaud your advice to, or putdown of Disney. As a long time lurker I think his venomous attacks are an unparalleled blight on this forum.

Good ol' boy
(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:01 - ID#26362)
You add a great deal of zest to this site, also insights, which are worthy of consideration and contemplation. I agree with you that informatoin, up to the second information, is a tool which helps keep paper currencies honest and alive. That does not mean that gold is passe as money. If I wished not to be bothered with keeping up with the up to the second information necessary to protect the paper, I would be content to leave it in a bank vault and come back in 50 or 100 years with confidence that it would have about the same purchasing power as it had when I left. The price of gold is currently down, but if you look at its historical value in terms of purchasing power, at several times in its history it has been at comparable levels. It fluctuates in value. The last 15 years are but a blink of the eye. Look at it over 4,000 years. Do you honestly think that a 15 year cycle means anything. Numerous currencies have fluctuated a great deal more than gold in just the last year. Look at the dollars purchasing power over the past 199

Good ol' boy
(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:01 - ID#26362)
You add a great deal of zest to this site, also insights, which are worthy of consideration and contemplation. I agree with you that informatoin, up to the second information, is a tool which helps keep paper currencies honest and alive. That does not mean that gold is passe as money. If I wished not to be bothered with keeping up with the up to the second information necessary to protect the paper, I would be content to leave it in a bank vault and come back in 50 or 100 years with confidence that it would have about the same purchasing power as it had when I left. The price of gold is currently down, but if you look at its historical value in terms of purchasing power, at several times in its history it has been at comparable levels. It fluctuates in value. The last 15 years are but a blink of the eye. Look at it over 4,000 years. Do you honestly think that a 15 year cycle means anything. Numerous currencies have fluctuated a great deal more than gold in just the last year. Look at the dollars purchasing power over the past 199

Good ol' boy
(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:02 - ID#26362)
Continum ) Look at the dollars purchasing power over the past 100 years and compare it to gold.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:04 - ID#250251)
Farfel: I do not trust my nose these days and suspect that it's not the midas metal you detect but something a deeper shade of brown.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:06 - ID#269409)
@ Karlito
Yes, now that I think about it your point is well taken. When it comes to Karlito, his background, education, and expertise does make his opnion suspect in a forum like this

After all, why should we listen to someone with an actual education, who genuinely understands something about economics, currencies, and history, when we have "expert" analysts here who can predict the market with total innaccuracy based on Eclipses of the Moon?

Then of course we have "experts" who use planetary cycles and star positions to guide us, and we have conspiracy theorists to explain why all things are done at the behest of nefarious Rothschild minions.

Yep, why bring "information" to a place like this and confuse things with facts afterall? Guy's like "Karlito" are responsible for the economy we have today.

We should hold guys like Karlito acountable for todays economic conditions, as we all wish and hope for the good old days of starvation, depression, poverty, revolutions, and deprivation...the great benefits that all mankind enjoyed before these modern day "fiat currency" types deluded us into believing we're more prosperous than humanity has ever been.
(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:09 - ID#431203)
xau is up over 4%, today

(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:10 - ID#410194)
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after trading:

Gold: Unchanged at 489,158 ounces.

Silver: Fell 40,712 ounces to 109,940,486. -- A new 13-year low

Profits taking and low volume trading influenced today's gyrations in Silver prices. Beware of too many people expecting a BIG correction, usually they do not get that opportunity!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:12 - ID#26793)
@Pacific Northwest Dave
The XAU/Spot Ratio is the XAU divided by spot. It represents the amount of safe, in pocket gold it would take to purchase the XAU. Tonight it would take .259 ounces. The XAU has traded since December, 1983. During that time the low point of the ratio was .146 ounces ( June 86 ) . The high point was .397 ounces ( Feb. 96 ) .

We have been tracking it for several months to try and determine its value in determining when, in general, gold stocks or the XAU can safely be purchased.

Spud Master
(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:13 - ID#273112)
To continue Karlito99's "wife as money" analogy...
Karlito99, you, like those ugly gold bugs are HOARDING your wife. Selfish, distrustful. Unmutual.

I advise ( with LGB's ready servile, willing agreement ) that you put your wife in the bank, so that she can be loaned out, earning you vital interest. The bank can give you a "certificate of deposit" as a measure of good faith that she'll be there when you need her. Infact, using the Fed's "Fractional Reserve" system, you'll probably she her out in circulation ten-fold. Fear not. You as a paper devote fully apporve & appreciate this practice.

Puts a whole new spin on what you believe in, don't it. ( gratutious grin ) .

(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:13 - ID#269409)
@ James / Disney
May I add a hearty AMEN to your post to Haggis. Regardless of our investment philosphical points of view, ( and in my case, perhaps annoyingly abrasive style of debate ) ...posts which do nothing other than name call, with no other point to make whatsoever re investments, seem incredibly hypocritical when coming from a "John Disney" that lecturer of what constitutes propriety on a discussion forum.

His 03:27 is a classic of the genre, which belongs in the Hypocrite Hall of Fame.

Now then, was it you who was discussing Silver last evening, to whom I was unable to reply? The activity in the Silver pits has been fascinating, and I'm going to fo hunt up the COMEX data for today's close.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:17 - ID#254269)
@ Donald; Re XAU/Spot Ratio and your 17.12; at what point would you

consider it to flash a "buy" signal or "sell" signal ?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:18 - ID#269409)
@ realistic...COMEX Silver data
Another drawdown and now below 110 mil! I liked your editorial comment also, now what do you suppose will happen when we breach the psychological 100 Million barrier? ( WHich may be a week or two at this rate! ) .

My only concern is that someone out there may be accumulating quietly. What do you think?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:19 - ID#26793)
Lots of silver and gold news

Pacific Northwest Dave
(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:24 - ID#223187)
Thanks for the explanation Donald_A!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:24 - ID#28585)
ECONOMICS SHMECONOMICS!!! Gold Short Squeeze in the Air!!!
I once knew a gal named Karlito
Who studied macro and micro economics at the Paris Lido
When the truth was discovered
She never recovered
Now she's a stripper again without equal.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:36 - ID#344308)


you just cannot be scooped can you!

all hail to THE-DON---------MR INFORMATION.......

for your efforts, and altruistic actions, you are here-by
awarded a co-pilot seat on the ssm.........another silver
arrow......and control of the hubbly bubbly......ted is
keeper of the flame........

backwardazation in silver


what is the downside risk for options.....just the premium + broker fee..

what is the upside risk for silver options 'when' this hits???

IT IS ASTRONOMICAL...........100k+++++ per option!!!

buy them way out of the money ( $7+ ) 3+ months out...i am.....


(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:37 - ID#269409)
@ WGC and the Euro
Question, will the World Gold council succeed in it's quest to convince the EU CB's to hold Gold as a partial link to it's new "Euro".

(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:39 - ID#31868)
one minor detail, if it is on this forum it ain't a secret anymore...

(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:40 - ID#254269)
@ LGB; What exactly is the World Gold Council ? Is it a trade group ? TIA

Pacific Northwest Dave
(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:43 - ID#223187)
Kitco gold and Silver quotes?
Is it just my computer, or have Kitco's gold,silver prices not been updated since 12-27? I'll admit that I do like those old prices better than todays!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:45 - ID#26793)
I don't want to flash a signal for anyone else, just show the numbers so each can make their own decision. I used the ratio for the first time myself on 11/13/97 when it was .256. Bought the Benham Fund ( 20th Century now ) for my IRA. That was too soon. I doubled that position on 12/09/97 when the ratio was .227 so far that was a good move. I don't have a close for today but it should be well in the black for my average. Prices were $7.09 on the first and $5.68 on the second so you can see what a big difference a small move in the ratio makes. Close yesterday was 6.26, my average price is 6.385. I will likely sell half my position when the ratio is .300 or so. I would be all out at .320 the way I am thinking now. In general, I feel the ratio is giving good information so far. It helps to have real money on it to sharpen the skills.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:49 - ID#344308)

did'nt da do the same with pl right before it
slammed up? still time to get onboard...

only a matter of time now...................

(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:53 - ID#286199)
Pacific Northwest Dave
Bart posted earlier today that there are problems with the board and he is aware of them. No help until Monday 1/5/98 as they are all on vacation. Vronsky has posted several times a most excellent site for quotes and other cool stuff on metals. Try this:

(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:53 - ID#269409)
@ Moneterism
Re your ealier informative treatise on Freidman, moneterism, and whether it's a viable successful economic model, may I take the liberty of plagarizing, twisting, bastardizing, and misquoting a statement from Winston Churchill ( I think it was he anyway... )

Moneterization and capitalism are the worst possible economic systems....
except for all the others....

Pacific Northwest Dave
(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:56 - ID#223187)
China's Debt Bomb Is Aimed At You!
I just finished reading a very interesting article put out by "Strategic Investment". Between 1994 and 1997 China has tripled its holdings in U.S. Treasury securities, from 14 to 40 billion, making it the fifth largest holder in the world. China has long been feared for its massive military, but most people haven't even thought of how they could totally destroy us by massive bond dumping. Chinas threat of bond dumping looms over the American market like an impending storm cloud. There is an undeniable link between foreign bank holdings of U.S. treasury debt and Wall Streets current bull market. Should this happen we can say bye bye to the U.S. Dollar and hold on gold and silver! No wonder our Pres is so fond of the Reds!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:56 - ID#210114)
Gold as store of wealth
Karlito99, I have enjoyed your additions to this site. They have injected a touch of reality sadly needed.

I would take issue with your 16:12 post. You used the last 15 years to show that gold is a poor store of wealth. The goldbugs would rightly point out to you that gold has a 3000 year history. Perhpas a 15 year period is not truley representative.

Please consider...

Dave in CO
(Tue Dec 30 1997 17:57 - ID#215211)
@James - Mt. Carmel
Well said. What sickened and scared me, as you touched on, was the reaction of friends and peers who felt the Davidians deserved to die.

The controlled media seems to be a major factor, controlling by omission as well as distortion. How much TV news coverage ( where 70% get all of their information ) have you seen of the 475 members of OK City victims' families who are sueing the fed. gov. because they believe the ATF had advance warning of the bombing? Or the .45 inch perfectly circular hole in Ron Brown's head? Or Dick Gregory, still in jail and fasting, who marked as a crime scene the offices of the military pathologists that refused to autopsy Brown's body.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:00 - ID#30116)
I was comparing to last years day and weekly trading patterns. Last years volume ( day to day comparison,i.e. 12/24/96 compared to 12/24/97 ) on the NYSE was lower than present 'holiday' trading

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:01 - ID#254269)
@ Donald; Appreciate your 17.45, I was not trying to hold you to any
specific "trigger point". IN the example you show though, you are right
about what a big difference can be made by a small variation in the
ratio. Thanks.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:01 - ID#269409)
@ Avalon
WGC= Worldwide trade group. ( With a pretty strong bias naturally ) . Study the info. on Vorornsky's GoldEagle site ( URL's to same posted here approx. 8 million times daily by Voronsky ) and all his links to other sites and you'll see plenty of references..

Incidentally, I'm NOT Voronsky bashing, he has a great site, though it would be nice to see a site specializing in Gold info., deal honestly with the subject now and then. You know, like reporting that in 1997 the worst performing mutual funds in the U.S. were the Gold sector funds which lost SIXTY PERCENT in value!

Or perhaps eschewing the 1929 crash from the stock market peak once in awhile to discuss the brutal 18 year crash in Gold's price from it's market top in 1980. In realisitic terms....including it's even more horrific losses then it's dollar losses when corrected for inflation.

In any case, for great Gold cheerleading info. ( or should I say Cheermisleading info.... ) Voronsky's site can give ya all the positives.

Good ol' boy
(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:04 - ID#26362)
Conspiracy, Waco, why bother
What is the point. Isn't there an ET or some other site to voice such concerns?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:06 - ID#410194)
@LGB Re: Silver!
I don't think there is "accumulation" LGB. If there is, it won't even get noticed.

We are now starting to face reality, 17 years after the huge spike up in 1980. It took all this time to finally use up the excess caused by a lot of dumping out there in order to take advantage of the very high prices at the beginning of the eighties.

But let's also remember that "markets" are very "psychological" ( in a deceitful way ) and these huge drawdowns do not mean that Silver is supposed to take off immediately, although it certainly started to support prices quite well and will continue to do so in an upward bias. ( Charts are showing this clearly )

The resolution of the drastic decrease in the inventory and the ever increasing demand could certainly create a big run-up in prices, bigger than what most expect and then, some inventory will surely start to show up. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Silver take off in a very big way one morning with a big gap.

We have to look at the big picture. While so many traders and investors are already "calculating" downside corrections, I suspect that $6 and $7 dollars will indeed look very cheap in the not too distant future...and we may not re-visit these levels for many years to come! The current environment is shaping up very well for a change in the appreciation of Silver. The markets react very differently now compared to 10 or 15 years ago and the unexpected is what happens the most often. ( The Stock market is a good example and we may have not seen the end of the Bull yet! ) Too many people also do not believe that Silver can get ahead of Gold by this much and this is also very healthy because more and more, we will witness actions in the markets that are not supposed to happen!

The markets are always right, not matter what we want them to do! Silver is clearly showing us extremely bullish signs, we may as well respect it!

Finally, another good example of "deceitful psychology" may already be at work with the Asian woes... Now that so many people and traders are "aware" of the problems and are now trying to act accordingly in their trading and investment ( some of them by expecting the end of the world ) , I wouldn't be suprised to see things getting better frow now on! Yes, the worst might be over in Asia, Sout Korea and Japan included! The skeptical should save this message and consult it back sometimes next Spring.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:12 - ID#26669)
Spudmaster: So what are June wife calls going for now? & is what is the margin?
Seriously, though, does anybody have the URL to a working PM price ticker tonight? Even the SA mining homepabe is giving an AM price as their latest.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:13 - ID#30116)
For all who care to look, NYMEX futures contract information can be found here;

gold contract specification is here;

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:18 - ID#25588)
Feb Gold
If you are long Feb Gold from 284.8 move your stop up from 288 to just under today's lows, new stop 290. Today's low was most likely a wave 4 low. This pullback has occured a little sooner than i had planned and has taken some of the steam out of the market and lowered the projection. New objective 305 -310.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:20 - ID#28585)
LGB...Europe will announce ( in the not too distant future ) that the Euro will be a gold backed currency. It is imperative to establish credibility in this oddball currency particularly in the face of huge negative and critical assessment of the Euro's ultimate viability.

Switzerland ( although not participating in EMU ) has essentially agreed to provide support to the pan-European plan. How? Assisted by Belgium and the Netherlands, the Swiss triggered a ( near panic ) sell-off in the gold market whose ultimate aim is re-accumulation at lower prices.

Switzerland supports a pan-European, gold-backed currency from the perspective that, in the long run, it is good for the Swiss Franc...the only other significant gold-backed currency in the world.

On the other hand, the U.S. government is apprehensive ( to say the least ) of the notion of a gold-backed Euro. You need simply examine the spate of economic investigations and studies into macro/micro effects of a gold-backed Euro upon the U.S. dollar and equity/bond markets. Obviously, such a new financial instrument poses a potential threat to the Almighty U.S. Dollar and ultimately U.S. bond and equity markets...such markets resting precariously upon the foundation of a strong U.S. dollar.

Thus, it is in the U.S. government's interest to diminish the value of gold ( and ironically, at the moment, it is in Europe's interests to do the same...until re-accumulation begins ) .

In the aftermath of the approaching American equity debacle, Switzerland will likely announce sometime in '98 that the proposed referendum for future gold sales has been "reconsidered." Such an announcement will trigger a slingshot rebound in gold's price, thereby sustaining the Swiss Franc as the world's most solid currency along with its new partner, DA EURO..

....submitted with mucho affeccionadad by Farfel.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:22 - ID#410194)
Oppps, My apologies!
I made a mistake in my earlier posting of the Comex Date:

Gold: Unchanged at 489,158 ounces. ( That was correct )

Silver: Rose 49,288 ounces to 109,940,486. ( Just above a 13 year low )

Not a huge difference but still... it's my mistake, sorry.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:27 - ID#269409)
@ Good Ole Boy
Re your 18:14. Apparently you havn't been reading this site long. The "point" of a WACO discussion, is that in order to be a member in good standing of Kitco, you must;

a ) Believe Govt. conspiracy's are at the root of all disastors including Flight 800, JFK, Y2K, and El Nino

b ) Mistrust your Govt. at all times, and stop believing in such quaint ideas as "democracy", or that the Govt. is US.

c ) Develop a hatred of your country, even if you formerly loved, fought for, and believed in the principles upon which it was founded ( cause after all, nefarious politicians have changed all those principles and taken us off the Gold standard )

d ) Resolve to wish for, hope for, and cheer for the complete annahilaztion of civilization as we know it so that "Gold" will be the only thing human beings believe in.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:31 - ID#269409)
@ Farfel.....Gold backed Euro
Not to be too US centric, but Gold backed Euro will do nothing to diminish the strength and appeal of the almighty dollar....which is rightly tied to our Governements stability, our business stability, and our extremely high productivity ( best in the world ) .

Those European socialized economies will never compete effectively, Gold backed Euro or no.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:33 - ID#286199)
EBN shows silver just took a .25 dive to 5.91. Can anyone verify?

Good ol' boy
(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:34 - ID#26362)
Thanks for straightening me out.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:37 - ID#426220)

Rick Ackerman regularly contributes market analysis to the Sunday San Francisco Examiner and has also written numerous times for
Barron's. Presently, he is bullish on GOLD, and VERY bearish on common stocks.

He observes The result has been the creation of a global credit bubble that is about to collapse and take the stock market with it. The size of the bubble is the reason why the market will not
return to health with the 10 to 20 percent correction that
nearly everyone on Wall Street seems to be hoping for.

Somewhere down the road, when share prices have been cut in half, the excess of the credit system will be cited as the cause of the collapse.

Most likely, gold stocks, bullion and long-term Treasuries will be the best place to be, along with some foreign debt instruments. But don't count on being able to shift your money when the trumpets sound, for there will be no time then.

Detailed comprehensive report at:

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:38 - ID#28585)
@Long Gold Baby (aka LGB) Aw..there's ya go again...
Belief in the value of gold is not anti-American nor anti-government...rather it is simply good sense in the face of a paper avalanche designed to enrich a precious few, greedy gents on Wall Street at the expense of the entire nation.

In the short run, the paper avalanche may be deflationary...yet ultimately it is certainly stagflationary. What is anti-American about holding an investment designed to protect oneself against the unmitigated greed of a mutual funds cartel?

Long Gold's been a slice!

P.S. "The Great Gold SHort Squeeze"....coming to your neighborhood theatre real soon!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:39 - ID#30116) (meltdown, & Tom Jefferson) @ 16:13
I often think of that phrase

The html file in my last post should work if you click on it. It will pull up the NYMEX gold futures contract specifications. Now, one more time for the URLs.....

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:40 - ID#257148)
Talking 'bout my.. gggeneration.......
thank you for your well expressed views. Just as one swallow does not a summer make, so a generation does not a truth enshrine. ( did I get this neologism right tolerant1? ) We can call this generational truth.

While I respect your qualifications, such education imposes its own kind of spectacles, in the form of orthodox models, no? Even at its best, such an education will criticise orthodoxy in an orthodox fashion, using the same models, paradigms, world views to criticise as to establish the orthodox.

Now, let us transport ourselves back to 15th Portugal, It was known with certainty the world was flat. There was no error, the world was incontravertibly FLAT. It was generational truth. A hundred justifications that looked like reason were given for this, many observations were made that conformed to this orthodox view of our sweet gold woirld, a world of flatness for the flatlanders ( A tip of the hat to the flatland farmers in passing ) . I think by now most believe otherwise. Most people, even goldbugs now are comfortable with the idea of a roundish ball world thing.

( BTW on dinosaurs, I understand that a fair proportion of Americans believe that dinosaurs lived at the same time as early humans - Fred Flinstone has much to answer for - but then again, so does your education system that could permit this lie to be believed, it allows other lies to be believed too.

Noone here will disagree with you that gold has been blackguarded as an investment/store of value by successive Western Govts for a good generation. Someone might like to correct me on this, I look at Nixons' ending of the gold backed currency as the birth of this ignominious era in 1971 ( unchecked date )

So, we have a generation of Westerners who have become used to the idea of gold as trinket, gold as pretty, gold as a burden 'cos it pays no interest. One moment to look at interest. Interest itself is a function of paper and risk. All here will know the origin of capital ( head of cattle ) and interest - payment in kind ( kindergarten ) children - the offspring of cattle retained as Collateral for a loan.- On loan repayment he lender received either the offspring of the herd or a return of the capital plus interest.

So back to this ungold generation. So often we have been told, from so many different sources, with charts and data and facts to back em up, that gold is not a store of value. We have been told this truth so often that unsuprisingly most Westerners believe that to be true. Please do not get confused by the difference between generational truth and consensual truth. Consensual truth also has no objective validity, but the consensus of humanity knows such and such is the case. One example is murder. Everyone knows murder is wrong. We can look to many - not all- of the 10 Commandments ( whose consensual truths are much, much older than Christianity ) to get an idea of other truths that are consensual. Notice though how a generation can twist these truths but in time they return to consensus again. Look for example at Nzi Germany.

OK. Now, let us look around the world. You know, try and step outside our ethnocentricity. The reality is that it is only in the West ( and only a part of the West - you do not have to convince a French villager ) , and only for a generation that this Gold has no value truth has been spouted.

All around Asia, that is three quarters of the worlds population know the value of gold. It is hoarded ( OK purchased ) and passed from one generation to another. It often forms part of the bride price, and of gifts to deities. The belief in gold is incontravertible to billions of people. ( US pop 250m - of that pop - many are believers in gold despite the propaganda - for that is what anti-gold is ) The Western non-believers are in a tiny tiny minority - although they have a loud voice.

In my mispent I travelled extensively throughout Asia, spending over a year in India. Everywhere I went I saw gold addorning women and girls, in the meanest villages, in the poorest slums, and on the streets of Indias cities. ( You wanna see a city? go to Bombay - gold sellers everywhere ) THey had little else, but gold was there to help them through the lean years, and, old civilisations know of lean years.

Many people on this site realise this, and are waiting for the West to realise again, to awaken to the consensual truth of gold. I can not agree with you that ordinary folk see no value in gold. There are a score of expressions in everyday usage that underline golds importance as money. Good as Gold, Golden Opportunity, its a Gold mine ( longer list available on request )

To do the death of gold properly, karlito, old bean, I suspect many more millions of propaganda dollars need to be spent. Gotta get rid of Amex Gold cards, Gold Medals, Golden rules etc etc. from the Public psyche, dangerous stuff to allow such expressions to be at large.

I have often wondered how many Americans STILL believe their currency is backed by gold?

But, as long as youre selling, theres others thatll buy. Thanks again for your comments. Looking forward to hearing yours and anyones on mine.


(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:42 - ID#35767)
According to DBC it is down 8.5 cents. Was as low as down 10.5. Took a quick hit 10 minutes ago.

Barb Hughes
(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:46 - ID#20783)
RE: Silver
Traded as low as 5.90
Currently 6.02 bid 6.06 ask

Dave in CO
(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:47 - ID#215211)
@good ol' boy
I guess the point was lost on you, but what other abuses of innocent but out-of-the-mainstream citizens are in store; e.g., owners of gold?

Since you put the deaths of innocent women and children in the same category as ET's, I can understand why you and LGB agree.

LGB stated that Y2K conspiracy theory would be a non-event and I assume you agree. Won't be long until that one can be proved one way or the other.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:47 - ID#347457)
ROR @Silver
ROR, EBN shows silver down 25 cents ( -4% ) Don't know which quote is correct or more up-to-date

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:53 - ID#31868)

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:53 - ID#269409)
@ Miro....Silver
Bet it settles above $6.00 and builds a base for a few days from whence to launch to new and loftier heights.....

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:53 - ID#267276)
I am looking for a big move up right after new years day. Liberalization of gold sales in india, funds, shorts taking profits in 98 instead of 97 for tax reasons,hopeful capitulation by central banks trying to meet European Union criteria, and overall supply and demand imbalances, caused by flight to safety because of global currency instability. I HOPE !

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:55 - ID#35767)
EBN must lead dbc
Silver bid 5.90/ they are hitiin stops and takin no prisoners. What better way for the PMs to end the year.

Good ol' boy
(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:56 - ID#26362)
Dave in Colo
If there is anything of substantive value to be learned from Waco which is relevant to this site, it is that it is a wonderful example of how big governments, like big corporations are prone to run amuck. Granted, they did not do it right. I sort of thought Mayor Good of Philidelphia did it right with the MOVE movement, even thought it was rather sad so many children were burned up along with the rest of the nuts and it the bomb caused the whole block to burn. Oh well, back to the drawing board.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 18:59 - ID#28585)
@Long Gold are US-centric...and that's what I love about you, baby!!
Don't change...don't ever change! Just stay the way you are, baby!

America is so personal debt! No lines at ticket counters! No slums! No potholes in the streets! It's paradise out there baby!! PARADISE!

Ich liebe sie, LGB!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:00 - ID#398105)
James, thank you

(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:02 - ID#35767)
We hit 590 now we are bid 600 ask 6055.FYIE

(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:05 - ID#347457)
Question: IRA money and silver/gold coins
OK folks, I still have some old IRA money in stox and because most of my investments are in paper form ( anything metal related is in PM mutuals ) I would like to move this IRA money to coins. I understand that IRA is now open for this type of investment. Anybody knows any good company which supports IRA accounts for coins?

LGB? Anybody?

Contrary indicator
(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:10 - ID#342285)
Gold coins in IRA

Quick and Reilly will allow you to purchase gold coins in their IRAs.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:12 - ID#254260)
anyone know of any other sights for spot prices?

Barb Hughes
(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:15 - ID#20783)
Only AM Gold Eagles are currently acceptable for IRA's...according to all my sources.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:18 - ID#286199)
Hi yo silver, when was the last time we had a 27 cent range in less than an hour?

Aurator: Great post, but you had to go and pick on Fred Flintstone. There are Universities in the U.S. which teach the creationist view. They are accredited and offer degrees in many fields. I can only find one web site on short notice.
The point being that "orthodox" beliefs are all being challenged these days. Now we are arguing over what's orthodox, gold or paper and we keep coming back to the issue of time frame. I don't expect to be alive more than another 40 years or so... that's my realistic time frame. In the next 40 years, whither goes gold????

Lurker 777
(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:18 - ID#317247)
All: What is your favorite site?
Listed are some of my favorite free web sites. Please post a few of yours so we may all explore and enjoy. Thank You!

Lists Options and Futures closing prices:

Great site for historical charts of all currencies converted into Gold, Silver, Platium, or other currencies. Can track up to five currencies on one chart and more.

Gold, Platinum and Silver dealer in bullion coins. Lists sell and buy prices. Daily quotes and good prices.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:23 - ID#255284)

Happy Hogmanay mon. ( your time )


(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:25 - ID#254260)
free charts at

(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:26 - ID#22451)
Silver Quotes
Where are you getting these quotes? A URL would be appreciated.

Lurker 777
(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:29 - ID#317247)
I have a self directed IRA with gold bullion coins in it. I use American Church Trust Company 800-228-8825. I can purchase Gold Bullion Coins or Options on Real Estate. The paper work is easy and the self directed IRA opens up all kinds of possibilities.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:33 - ID#269409)
Inflation.......the Fed...Karlito, you're right again....
uesday December 30, 6:43 pm Eastern Time

Inflation still Fed's main long-run worry-Gramlich

WASHINGTON, Dec 30 ( Reuters ) - Asia's financial problems are complicating the U.S. economic outlook in the short run but over
the long term the Federal Reserve must stay focused on inflation, Fed Governor Edward Gramlich said on Tuesday.

``In the long run I think there's a powerful argument for worrying mainly about inflation and that is the job of the central bank,''
Gramlich told the Nightly Business Report television news program. A text of his comments were released ahead of the broadcast.

He added, ``We don't do the rest of the world any service if we let our inflation get out of control.''

Gramlich said that, clearly, policy makers were balancing internal and external factors and that there were various ways to look at the
effects of Asia's problems.

Asked about his view on the forecasts for a half to three-quarters of a percentage point reduction in U.S. gross domestic product
growth due to Asia's troubles, Gramlich said they seemed ``pretty reasonable.''

He said the slowdown in growth would occur mainly through a widening of the U.S. trade deficit but he added that lower import
prices due to a stronger dollar would bring ``some favorable news'' on the inflation front.

Gramlich said there was ``some truth'' to the view that real interest rates are high due to falling inflation, but he said that may be just
a blip.

``The thing you have to worry about is that you're looking at interest rates over a very long horizon, and you shouldn't really get too
concerned -- or too giddy would be the word -- with short-run blips in inflation,'' he said.

``If on the other hand this is more lasting and inflation is moving to a lower level, which would be wonderful, then some of the
implications ( of higher real interest rates ) might be true,'' he added.

Any decline in inflation due to foreign currency changes would be a ``one-shot effect,'' but if U.S. productivity was rising the effect
``presumably would be more lasting,'' he added.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:37 - ID#288157)
Currency Information standard, where ?
With all due respect, when you state, Which is why you need an information standard. It is the information standard of today that is constantly giving us all minute to minute feedback on the value of any particular currency. It is the market that protects you from the venality of politicians. we have -a bona fide need to define-- and limit -- our terms. What is the "information standard" to which you refer?

From others in the financial arena, dealing daily with the currency informational-input-loop, there are some interesting observations:

At best, expectations of volatility are a crapshoot. The computer has in its guts the historical record of volatility in the instruments that underlie the swap. But that merely tells you the Frequency with which certain price movements have occurred in the past. And as John Maynard Keynes pointed out in Treatise on Probability in the early years of this century, frequency and probability are not the same thing. The computer doesnt know from Kobe earthquakes

Lisa Polsky of Bankers Trust observes, explaining the disastrous decisions so many users of derivatives made in 1994, when the Fed unexpectedly raised interest rates: Since historic volatility and correlations dont change dramatically with only a few months new data, investors didnt change their expectations of returns and didnt adjust their positions.


From one of the world's leading experts on international finance ( his textbooks on the subject are ubiquitous in top universities worldwide;
a Harvard Ph.D.; a professor at Wharton, he also trained many of the top traders and derivatives experts as well as the "quants" who run Wall Street's automated computer trading systems:

"Let me illustrate with an example. In the mid-1980s, shortly after I had gone into the banking software business, I accepted a consulting job with a major Mew York investment bank to evaluate the foreign currency option prices coming out of their newly created back-office system. Now, there is a naive assumption often made outside the business that all an investment bank has to do to get its number-crunching done properly is to pay enough to hire the right"quant" ( short for quantitative person ) or "rocket scientist", and their valuation problems are solved.

Life is not that simple. Yes, you have to be able to do the mathematics. But you also have to know the finance to marry the two properly. And by
"finance" I mean you have to know something about market practices--not necessarily the BS that often passes for finance in MBA classes--as well as financial arbitrage relationships. ( There is nothing more pathetic than watching a quant take a "financial engineering" formula using a continuously compounded interest rate, and attempt to pop into it a market interest rate calculated on a simple 360-day year basis. )

In a banking environment, derivatives systems are typically produced by a programmer, who doesn't understand mathematics, and who is not talking to
the trader. The trader doesn't understand computers, and in is not talking to the mathematician, who doesn't understand either trading or computers.

And the three of them are supervised by a "manager" who doesn't understand any of the above subjects, and who thinks his job is done just as long as each person shows up for meetings on time, and delivers an irrelevant report in a civil tone of voice."

It is VERY difficult to conceptualize an information standard that can protect anyone from anything...

Or perhaps I'm just ill-informed ( ALWAYS a possiblity ) and there is
some measured information standard to which every trader, every derivative is held?

Aurator@18:40something: That was a wonderful bit of thinking and writing!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:38 - ID#28585)
One more time by popular request...Ode to Karlito...
I once knew a gal named Karlito
Who studied macro and micro economics at the Paris Lido
When the truth was discovered
She never recovered
Now she's a stripper again without equal.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:43 - ID#335190)
South Korea @ Must be saved.
December 30, 1997
Global banks buy Korea time -- but how much?

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Rounds of holiday-season meetings between central, commercial and investment bankers around the world have yielded one chorus: South Korea must be saved from default.

"It eliminated the crisis atmosphere that existed before," added Moran, who stressed that the Fed, as a bank regulator, is always concerned about the U.S. financial system's stability.

On Monday, five Wall Street investment firms agreed "in principle ... to participate in the program of support for Korea," while 13 U.S. and foreign banks simply "reported the positive reaction of the financial institutions in their countries to support efforts to alleviate Korea's short-term liquidity concerns."

"It clearly shows the ( banks' ) intention to help. But it still is unclear what is to be done or how much can be done," the Wall Street source said.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:43 - ID#398105)

G'Day from Kalgoorlie.

Value in the ground. Geological Resources and Mineable Reserves.

You may wish to check out the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy home page:

then, left screen, hit "Codes". These codes have a legal standing in Australia concerning the reporting of geological resources and mineable reserves. In the ground, as a rule of thumb, a geological resource may have a "value" of AU$ 10 to 50 per ounce, whilst a mineable reserve will form part of a bankable document hence market value.

You may also wish to reference "Guide to the Evaluation of Gold Deposits" Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum, Special Volume 45, 1992, ISBN 0 919086 31 4. This gives you a fairly reasonable coverage of all issues related to gold deposit evaluation.


Aye, Haggis

(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:45 - ID#432148)
Why do I have a calendar that says NZ celebrates New Years Jan 2? If this happy hangover day? ;- ) In any event, Happy New Year to you and Happy Scotish Holiday to Haggis also on Jan. 2nd.

Golden Boy
(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:45 - ID#430233)
APH re: 290 Feb stop
APH: Feb fell below the 20 day MA but closed higher. Isn't there a better chance of testing previous lows before 305-310? Is that why you suggested tighter stops?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:46 - ID#224151)
I'm all right Jack.....
Is it any wonder that the biggest beneficiaries of the Fiat money system .. the
Multi-national Corporate crowd and their bureaucratic conspirators...sing the systems
praises so highly! To these enlightened and eliteist folk it has been a most magnificent
exercise.No barbaric Gold standard to spoil their fun. Their Bulging 401s ( thanks to the
greatest credit-based Bull Market in History ) leave little time to contemplate the modest
lot of those billions who have always struggled in the often devastating eddies of
Progress. This is not to sing the praises of the Gold standard but rather to point out one
of its most important elements....restraint.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:49 - ID#398105)
farfel, that's a wee bit FARFETCHED again.................

(Tue Dec 30 1997 19:51 - ID#255284)
On Tightropes and Liferafts
I agree, the crucial point is time frame. OK
It is reasonable to expect a man to walk a tightrope for 10 minutes, for half an hour, even a day, but you cannot expect anyone to walk a tight-rope for a decade. That is the point. A crisis will happen without warning, even for us.

Some time ago my metaphor ( before the S E Asian crisis ) was as everyone stared in fear at the cliff of Iraq to beware the tidal wave coming amidships. We will be deluged before we know the wave is on the horizon. It is the human condition. Crises happen. Some people will lash themselves to the mast of gold and will weather the paper blizzard, better hope that all we love have a life raft available?

Funny thing about life rafts, they lie on the side of a ship for years, sometimes they are never used, and then you may ask "What is the point of a liferaft?" "What an expense, don't need these" This is why Karlito's Point of View is so important. Gold is anathema to accountancy. See my ravette about Cattle and interest....

Others who have needed a life raft will not ask that question. That, I suppose is the kernel of my earlier prolix on consensus reality, ask those who have needed a life raft.

My local baker is Cambodian. He and his whole family wear 22 & 24 kt jewellery. But, what do they know? What they know is that a crisis happened to them and they were the lucky ones.

Paper bugs do not realise how risky paper is. ( where's my matches? )

I purposedly avoided the creationist arguments in my earlier post, but yes teaching creationism is lunacy. OTOH, science, when pared to its base empiricism, still requires a belief system.. It's just I find Occam's razor a more comfortable lunacy.


Mike Sheller
(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:01 - ID#347447)
LGB it is time
LGB: I quote you tonite: You claim that to be a bona fide "kitcoite" one must ( among other things ) "Develop a hatred of your country, even if you formerly loved, fought for, and believed in the principles upon which it was founded ( cause after all, nefarious politicians have changed all those principles and taken us off the Gold standard"

My question to you is - to whom in this forum are you referring? My more important question is, what service have YOU rendered to your country? Mayhap you are being somewhat frivolous with the sacrifices of other men, and the right to criticize that they have earned by unspeakable blood and horror. I would like to know this. Please inform me of the military branch in which you served, and in what conflict, and then perhaps I will be able to put your comment in some sort of reasonable perspective. Thank you.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:02 - ID#28585)
Haggard ol' Haggis....Howya been doing, my fugly friend?
That Australian currency is looking pretty rough ever since they sold all that gold...

Well, at least, the ol' Aussie paper makes for a great Roo wipe, if you know what I mean.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:04 - ID#335190)
France @ Unemployment,trying to qualify for the euro, Europe's single currency.
December 30, 1997
Protesters demand aid, despite dip in unemployment rate

PARIS ( AP ) - Jobless demonstrators occupied unemployment offices across France on Tuesday, demanding aid from the leftist government that came to power on promises to help them.

Unemployment edged down a tenth of a per cent last month to 12.4 per cent, the lowest rate in a year.

"Working is a right, not a luxury," said Marie-Paul Perona, a journalist who has not worked in 10 years. "Luckily my husband works. We have to live off his salary, but it's not enough."

Jospin's leftist coalition defeated the previous conservative government in June by promising to make the fight against unemployment its highest priority - but progress has been slow.

"In France, unemployed people are ashamed of themselves. But it's not their fault that they're unemployed. It's the system that treats them like their not normal," Lemssaoui said.

"My son has been unemployed for a number of years and the state doesn't take good care of him," said Nicole Duval, a retiree protesting in Paris. "I need to help out with money but I can't afford very much on my pension."

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:18 - ID#426220)
Mike Sheller ( LGB it is time ) : Amigo, I stand with you in this need to know! Who has really served and sacrificed... and who JUST BOASTS and hides behide a false name, and refuses to give his cybernet-location, because no one can see what and who he really IS NOT?

LGB, if you are what you claim, then stand tall and be accounted for... if you are the man you proclaim to be.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:20 - ID#255284)
Information Standard? can't even get Jan 1 2000 sorted out.
Goldbug 223, are you extracting the Michael old boy? NZ celebrates New Year on Jan 2? Look this country is behind a decade or more, not just one day. Are you looking at an electronic calendar on your computer - cos that would explain it, Otherwise, your calendar publishers probably went to school in America ( apologise for the cheap shot. ;- ) )


Yes, Karlito's comment about Information Standard got me interested too. I mean, apart from the structural problems of Efficient Market Hypothesis, the reality is that money is made by inside knowledge. I have recently finished re-reading "Secrets of the Street - the dark side of making money on Wall St" by Gene Marcial, who, according to the cover, is Business Weeks' Inside Wall St columnist. I have often thought, as a rank outsider ( well odiferous anyway ) on Wall St ( that i'd truly have the intelligence of a baby trout if i tried my hand at that game. The insiders have more knowledge than anyone else. The deck is stacked now. I really do not see Karlito's Information Standard as anything more than Carte Blanche for the insiders.

Gold does not rely on
( a ) the veracity of the information, is it real?
( b ) the decision to release or retain the information
( c ) the speed of its transmission
( d ) the relative importance of the information.
( e ) noise to signal ratios

Gold is real. Gold is Royal. Real. Royal. ..Gold.

Get Real, Get Gold.

( at least buy the T-shirt )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:21 - ID#335190)
" *HAT..RED* of your country" Is this a "new era" twist, on the old tried and true form of RED baiting, 1997 style eh! Sickness !

I also ask the question of you, whom, on this site are you referring?

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:22 - ID#287367)
@ Miro
USAA Investment Management Company has gold coins for IRAs @ 1-800-292-8399

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:27 - ID#30116)
Gold chart with 1993 as a baseline reference
Delta percent reference is 1993.

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:29 - ID#287367)
@ Farfel (N-e-s-t-l-e-s, Nestles makes the very best, choklat)
You meant to tell LGB, "Ich liebe dich."

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:32 - ID#270224)
Last Posting for Awhile
I have overdosed on this web page for 1997 and will try to avoid it for awhile just to take a breather after today. I have invested since 1970 and have made and lost money on gold and silver. My investment performance has improved in the last 2 years. Here are my 1998 projections for what they are worth:

Gold and silver prices will be controlled by their industrial value until people lose their fixation with interest bearing investments.

Gold and silver prices will not go up for non-industrial reasons until U.S. interest rates drop and people start cashing in U.S. treasury bills.

The U.S. will not drop interest rates until unemployment rises. This can only happen when Americans buy cheap imports in favour of all domestic products e.g. Fuji film over Kodak, Toshiba over Zenith, Canon over Xerox and so on. This will take at least 3-6 months until anyone sees the effect.

The general public doesn't care about gold or silver because they only think in terms of compounded interest which they can't see gold and silver providing.

The bull market in stocks and bonds will end when the majority of people who are overextended on credit can't make their payments, can't get credit to buy retirement mutual funds or get laid off.

The only reason that increase in money supply hasn't caused visible inflation is that the inflation is in paper assets like stocks. Witness 5:1 price to book value ratio of average U.S. stock. The average investor couldn't care less having been told to "dollar cost average" into any market.

Any comments?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:32 - ID#364147)
Aurator..........and what a wonderful life
Scud missle bearin down on ya----duck mate~~~~~~~~

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:34 - ID#364147)
I am a MORON
missle=MISSILE and can't fuc*&%# type~~~~duh

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:38 - ID#287367)
@ Farfel (N-e-s-t-l-e-s, Nestles makes the very best, choklat)
You meant to tell LGB, "Ich liebe dich."

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:39 - ID#364147)
Mispent WHAT? Let me

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:40 - ID#30116)
Karlito, Information standard???? LGB, ever hear of the Constitution?
Funny, I didn't think the dollar depended on 'information' for its' value. I thought it more along the lines of the perception of its' supply and demand.

Too many dollars around ( low interest rates ) , the value goes down. Too few dollars ( high interest rates ) and the dollars 'value' goes up.

Information?? I can 'manufacture' all of the information that you need to know, ... and then some. :- ) )

LGB -- Ever read the Bill of Rights or the Constitution? We were granted a Constitutional Republic in the U.S. of A. by the Founding Fathers. They gave us one admonition, to keep the Republic, if you can...

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:45 - ID#255284)
The free market is a wonderful thing.....
Yeah, in the old days before registration there was a greater robustness to this site. A greater freedom in the anonymity. more quality information was dispersed? I suspect that anyone with a leeetle free market nous may figure that there is room in cyberspace for a new "old" kitco..

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:45 - ID#28585)
@KO (aka Coke)...simplistic analysis...I'm afraid, my fizzy friend...
Wouldn't it be nice if such matters unfolded in the orderly fasion you've described. No left field events...just a simple gradual process in which interest rates alone determine the value of assets.

Actually, the whole fixation on interest rates ( as a means of determining asset value ) began at the beginning of this decade. That is because the entire ascension of the markets the past several years has been interest rate generated, i.e., the major industrial nations dropped their native interest rates simultaneously, thereby forcing their respective citizenries out of savings accounts, CD's. etc. into the bond and equity markets.

Prior to the '90's, the market gurus never fixated on interest rates alone. They spoke of manifold variables creating value in equity.

Cheaper Asian good? Or maybe, various factory shutdowns in key goods and commodities, thereby creating sectoral shortages and a pandemic stagflation ( slow growth with rising interest rates ) . The rates rise as various countries compete to prevent capital flight from their respective treasuries and markets. much to little brainpower capable of understanding....


(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:47 - ID#364147)
DRIPS and........Panda
Hey Panda! Looks like I'll be partin with one of me beloved DRIPS ( BGC right in yer area ) as they were just bought by NIPSCO....and cause of 'circumstances' beyond my control might be sellin ALL me paper as I am a 'man on a mission' and nothin can stop me now~~~~~go 'stuff'!!!!!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:49 - ID#364147)
Not that I was one of them multiple personality posters er anything~~~~~
What the hell happened to Gloomy Gus ??

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:49 - ID#398105)


Aye, our Aussie politicians aren't the "brightest", they don't shine like GOLD. You may wish to check out the Aussie dollar against Precious Metals and other currencies at this excellent URL:

I hope GOLD goes like SILVER. Time will tell.

Aye, Haggis

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:49 - ID#426220)
Greenspan challenges us to "CLICK HIM," I would do more than just CLICK HIM if I could ( :- ) ) .... in any case check ol' Alan out - you will need to scroll down nearly the entire page until you see Alan Greenspan's handsome face GLARING AT YOU through his brim-glasses:

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:50 - ID#364147)
or Long Gone??

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:50 - ID#30116)
KO on inflation.....
I priced some non-prescription optical grade sunglasses the other day. What shocker! About ten years ago I bought a pair through a local eyeglass outfit. The cost? $133. Today, with a better grade glass lens versus plastic, $269........... Aint no inflation there! Price doubling in ten years equates to about 7.17% compounded yearly.

Now, I realize that this would be a 'luxury' item, so I inquired about prescription glasses. Same results..........

Mr. Mick
(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:51 - ID#345321)
Gold and IRAs - solly chally, no can take posession.........
when you want them, you won't be able to get them.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:53 - ID#364147)
Panda ...and eye- glasses
Yer eyes must be deceiving ya----there ain't no inflation----look @ the god damn PPI-CPI

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:53 - ID#28585)
@Chris L. Ball...Ich Liebe Sie... it rhymes with,LGB (my bud, Long Gold,Baby))
Rhyme...that's all I care about today...not grammar...not diction...not content!



(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:54 - ID#364147)
I want ta know
What happened to WW???

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:54 - ID#30116)
I've got to watch Brahm Stokers 'Dracula' to see how the stock market debacle might unfold. :- ) )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:56 - ID#426220)

PART - II, December 31, 1997

The key to financial independence is to know who will win the hidden battle between the U.S. dollar and gold.

International Econo-political analyst shares his critique of Kutyn and Milhouse financial opinions of the Southeast Asian currency crisis, stock market meltdown and crumbling banking systems vis--vis George Soros "REFLEXIVITY" THEORY. Truly an intellectual erudite analytical work. See:

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:57 - ID#30116)
Isn't that 'stuff' ( eyeglasses and such ) found under the heading of 'services' sector? Sort of like medical costs that aren't going up either... ( They'll admit to twice the rate of inflation on that one only because they want their 'plan' in place to 'save' us. ) :- ) )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 20:58 - ID#335190)
Korea @ Continues to add up
December 30, 1997
South Korea gets help in averting loan default

SEOUL, South Korea ( Reuters ) - South Korea breathed a sigh of relief Tuesday after international banks said they planned to roll over billions of dollars in short-term credits that South Korean borrowers were obliged to pay by Wednesday.

Leading financial institutions from Asia, Europe and North America, along with top U.S. investment banks, pledged Monday to work to restore South Korea to fiscal health,

Leading banks in France, Switzerland and the Netherlands announced Tuesday they would roll over South Korean debt and major lenders in the United States and Japan were expected to follow suit.

The Korean Finance Ministry said Tuesday that South Korea's external liabilities, as of Dec. 20, had fallen to $153 billion from $156.9 billion at the end of November.

But Korea has an estimated $30 billion in loans due over the next two months

European banks combined exposure amounting to $33.8 billion by the end of 1996

U.S. banks were owed a combined $9.36 billion.

Japanese banks, remain heavily involved, with claims of $24.3 billion.

About $15 billion of Seoul's estimated $100 billion in short-term debt comes due by Dec. 31, with another $15 billion maturing next month.

The International Monetary Fund $2 billion of its $21 billion loan to South Korea. Tuesday's payment of the IMF loan brought total IMF funding to South Korea to more than $11 billion in just under a month.

Tuesday banks in the United States, Europe and Japan were extending new credit of $10 billion to the government of South Korea.

"The possibility of fresh credit cannot be excluded but is not under serious discussion at present," said the source, who declined to be named.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 21:03 - ID#398105)
aurator.................New Zealand, missing time.


The Kiwis' don't have a "Nuclear" clock, the Yanks should know this by now!

Aye, Haggis

(Tue Dec 30 1997 21:06 - ID#398105)


Do you have any idea of which countries and banks were NOT involved in the South Korean "discussions", or are they all in the sh..

Aye, Haggis

(Tue Dec 30 1997 21:12 - ID#342273)
@ Pacific Northwest Dave
You can now combine Hong Kong's treasury holdings with China's to make them #2 in T-bill holdings. No problem - if they want to dump; the Fed will buy what is necessary to smooth out any upset that may begin to occur. I don't think Davidson and his crowd give the Fed near enough credit for the power it can bring to bear ( no puns intended ) . Gosh, they just smoothed out over 100 billion hump in S. Korea without a hitch. Besides, China's too smart to try to dump that much at once - if they did, Greenspan would shred them IMHO!

If anyone doesn't believe AG & RR are tough, just look at what they have overcome in the last 90 days. They can handle all foreseeable problems until inflation hits, IMHO. Then, it's a new ballgame.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 21:15 - ID#335190)
Haggis_A @ 21:06
"Discussions & Sh.." This Korea club "happening" has all the makings of an international "Networking" success story eh! : ) : ) : )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 21:18 - ID#224149)
As the year comes to a close who was right about Gold? Anybody remember the Big Bad Wolf ?Now we look to the new horizon of 1998 and I for one will make a predication .Gold High 343.00 Low 187.00.Happy New Year.Away to find another bottle of bubbly.

Gusto Oro
(Tue Dec 30 1997 21:23 - ID#377235)
POG '98
Even that would be a decided improvement over what we have now PBs.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 21:25 - ID#286199)
I like the metaphor of being "lashed to the mast of gold". Incidentally, I am one of the lunatics, but that is for another site and time.

Ted: I have WW's old email address around here somewhere, I'll see if I can dig him up.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 21:25 - ID#78116)
Two Quick Points for Good Old Boy
First, my investment horizon is not 4000 years. I can bearly keep a 20 year horizon in my sites. True gold has had a lot of staying power over that time and a very interesting history, but my concern is really the next 20 years.

Second, look at the staying power of money vs. gold. Vronsky has an interesting page on his site that shows a beautiful 1929 $100 gold certificate. He makes the point that the certificate bought 4.84 oz of gold in 1929 which today would be worth $1,720, while the $100 in paper would be worth $6.23 today in 1929 dollars.

Ignore for the moment that his math is wrong, at $300 an oz its only worth $1,452.

Had you invested that same $100 at the top of the market in 1929, today your investment would be worth $2473 ( 7915/320 ) *100 7915 was todays close, 320 was the 1929 peak ( or close to it ) . Even if you sold at the bottom of the October panic you would still have $2100. My point being, that money invested in paper over time will hold a greater store of value than gold.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 21:37 - ID#197328)
Trying again

All: Following is a re-try of an attempted post of 2 days ago.

All: Just some thoughts from my perspective at 35,000 feet reference human nature, etc.

Over the years my profession has taken me across hundreds of thousands of air-miles

and has given me the opportunity to observe mankind at it's worst and at it's best.

Mostly I've noticed a change for the worst among certain groups of air travelers.

The greatest change has occurred within the group I would call the 'Priveleged Business

Elite'. Eating With the Sharks, Swimming With the Pirhanas and Negotiating With the

Barracudas over the years certainly has increased their wealth considerably. But at what

expense? Many times their grasp of basic manners or civility to their fellow travelers is

painfully missing. ( And what values are they passing on to their offspring? ) As I stand in LkAmN

(Tue Dec 30 1997 21:40 - ID#197328)
Sorry again, I must have done something wrong. And I did not double space it at my end.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 21:41 - ID#398105)
aurator ,and to one and all ...................


You may wish to give your tonsils a tickle at Mid-night...........

The Traditional Scots Song for New Year

Auld Lang Syne, By Robert Burns 1756 to 1796

Should auld acquaintance be forgot,

And never brought to mind?

Should auld acquaintance be forgot,

And days of auld lang syne!


For auld lang syne, my dear,

For auld lang syne,

We'll tak a cup o' kindness yet,

For auld lang syne.

And surely ye'll be your pint stowp,

And surely I'll be mine!

And we'll tak a cup o' kindness yet,

For auld lang syne.

( Chorus )

We twa hae run about the braes;

And pou'd the gowans fine;

But we've wander'd mony a weary fit

Sin' auld lang syne.

( Chorus )

We twa hae paidl'd in the burn,

Frae morning sun till dine;

But seas between us braid hae roar'd


(Tue Dec 30 1997 21:43 - ID#398105)
aurator, and to one and all.................


You may wish to give your tonsils a tickle at Mid-Night. The Traditional Scots Song for New Year - Auld Lang Syne By Robert Burns 1756 to 1796

Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
And never brought to mind?
Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
And days of auld lang syne!
For auld lang syne, my dear,
For auld lang syne,
We'll tak a cup o' kindness yet,
For auld lang syne.
And surely ye'll be your pint stowp,
And surely I'll be mine!
And we'll tak a cup o' kindness yet,
For auld lang syne.
( Chorus )
We twa hae run about the braes;
And pou'd the gowans fine;
But we've wander'd mony a weary fit
Sin' auld lang syne.
( Chorus )
We twa hae paidl'd in the burn,
Frae morning sun till dine;
But seas between us braid hae roar'd
Sin' auld lang syne.
( Chorus )
And there's a hand, my trusty fere!
And gie's a hand o' thine!
And we'll tak a right gude-willie waught,
For auld lang syne.
( Chorus )

Prosperous New Year to One and All. Aye, Haggis

(Tue Dec 30 1997 21:47 - ID#78116)
Aurator and the Culture of Gold
There is no question that good is deeply embedded into our collective psyches. There is an enduring mythology surrounding gold that will be with us long after gold ceases to be a part of any monetary system.

All belief systems die hard, Keynesian economics did not sweep the field in 1936 when the General Theory was published. It was 35 years until Nixon said: "We are all Keynesians now."

The same can be found in astronomy when it was discovered that the earth was not the center of the univese, or geography as you point out when it becme known that the earth was no longer flat. Old beliefs are hard to give up. Changes in belief systems are usually generational, the old fuds die off and are replaced over time by younger believers in the new faith.

But we are now in just such a transition from world where the source of value is in the tangible to a world where everything of value is intangible. From a world where value is added by working on something physical to a world where value is added by manipulating images.

The new world is not something that is yet fully formed. Its a little like Plato's images on the cave wall. We can see them and describe them but they don't seem real to us yet. I didn't make this world, I find it somewhat humorous that some think that I am propagandist for this new world. I am simply trying to understand the beast as best I can.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 21:50 - ID#31868)
Beast is a good word for it. No biblical reference intended on my part.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 21:55 - ID#344308)

what's the deal? pl up 15.00?? bmi shows it at +2.00..

silver @5.98......-.20-------

looks like it is going to bust some of the longs ba!!s.....

options are the ticket...provide staying power, and safety!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 21:56 - ID#227238)
scrolling up.
Aurator ( 18:40 ) : Outstanding! A solid ezposition of consentual truth if ever it is possible. Perhaps even objective truth, as well. Your thoughts transcend application to markets. If stripped of the central theme, they would remain standing and unassailable.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 21:56 - ID#364147)
Don't get me going on medical costs and doctors ( snarl thing ) ---only thingy more corrupt are lawyers ( not you Tort or WW ( wherever ya may be )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 21:59 - ID#411149)
Who was the one sayin all the good things about SSC. I have noticed that it don't go up when silver goes up but it does go DOWN when silver goes down. Now I have also noticed that SSRIF and PAASF have both doubled.

I believe it was Gold Newsletter that said buyin DOORY was like buyin
options on gold with no time limit.

$540 by August?!

Tally Ho

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:02 - ID#364147) crusty ole fart
I liked Aurator's 18:40 post tooooooo.....Gold + Silver are coming back ( could they go much lower?? ) t'nite and Feb. gold is now back ta UNCH ( hey,it's a start ) ~~~~~~

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:03 - ID#398105)
wert and Steve......... mineral exploration covering Papua New Guinea


The best source of information covering on-going exploration activities in Australia and PNG can be sourced at:

You may wish to take out a subscription to the respective magazines. A copy of the Australian Mines Handbook and CD will provide you with all the information you may require.

Aye, Haggis

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:07 - ID#25588)
Feb Gold
Golden Boy - I don't use moving averages. I've never been able to figure out the value of using 20, 50, 100 day MA's other than a lot of traders seem to use them. As for the gold, today's market stopped at a Gann line drawn off the 12/16 low on the hourly chart. If it trades thru that line odds are high that it's going down further. Why give it back if you don't have to. All prices and stops are based on day charts.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:07 - ID#344308)

silver down .21 to 597

lgbito........where are you???

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:08 - ID#255284)
What the world needs now.... is Burt Bacharach
Karlito 99 thank your for your considered response. I suppose our main difference at present is one of ethnocentricity. That is, the main attack I a making is that the non-believers in gold are a tiny, tiny minority of the world's population. And, unlike my geographical metaphor & your Copernican allusion, the belief in gold as money is, at times, independant of empirical verification. We are weak mortals, those of us fortunate to have held gold recognise its enduring qualities. Goldbuggery ( hey, don't forget I'm a salty antipodean ) is a belief system that will endure long after Keynes and Nixon, Camdessus and Hashimoto, even Karlito and aurator have been forgotten.

Yet I can take a tola of Bombay gold to Bangkok or kuwait and exchange it for value. I can take this gold to London, Paris and Ekatahuna and exchange it for value. Still, today, now.

The liferaft. What is your liferaft Karlito amigo? What if everything goes to hll in a handbasin tomorrow? What provision have you made for those you love. Because that is really what we are talking about on this site, that is why I think LGB got things very wrong with his traitors speach. We, us goldbugs, actually care about the future, and our families. Being a goldbug is a ( violins please ) sign of love for our nearest and dearest.



(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:11 - ID#335190)
Bank of Canada @ 1935 Who needs a central bank ? (Yes, to Regulate the public via Private interests)
The Bank of Canada: its history
Who needs a central bank?

During the first fifty years of Confederation, Canada showed little interest in the establishment of a central bank. It was 1913 before Parliament formally discussed the subject, prompted at that time by W. F. MacLean, MP for South York. His plan, which called for a privately owned national bank subject to government control, was dismissed. Prime Minister R. L. Borden saw "no present necessity" for such a bank.

In March 1935, the Bank of Canada opened its doors as a privately owned institution, with shares sold to the public.

Soon after the Bank opened, a new government introduced an amendment to the Bank of Canada Act to nationalize the institution. In 1938, the Bank became publicly owned and remains that way today.

The Bank of Canada Act, which defines the Bank's functions, has been amended many times since 1934. But the preamble to the Act has not changed. The Bank still exists "to regulate credit and currency in the best interests of the economic life of the nation."

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:11 - ID#30116)
Ted, Montreal Express?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:12 - ID#31868)
The more I read your twisted manipulations of history and the men you attribute great things to I envision a NAZI pushing some human who happened not to fit the plan into the oven. You have the mechanistic thought pattern of the programmed and not the programmers to whom you compare Plato, which adds insult to pestiferous sentiments.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:13 - ID#344290)
Anyone have any knowledge - Industrias Penoles Silver Mines ( IPOAF)
Appreciate any input anyone might have - is it good stuff? Or no?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:14 - ID#7568)

The silver game has taken on a new dimension in the last day or so running into tonight. Apparently there is a player who believes that the whole rally has been way overdone and that there are weak longs which can be shaken out with a few well timed bear raids. The attack on silver today and in the last few hours is reminiscent of the action in gold after the Australian bank announcement. The pattern is the same. Wait until the market is dead quiet and no one is at the desk. Come into the market with large sell orders and push as far as you can go to see if you can trigger stops and perhaps an avalanche of technically driven selling. Tonights afterhours attack happened in the globex where there is almost zero liquidity. Approximately 3 million ounces of selling was enough to move the market almost 30 cents.

This action bears watching very carefully. My best guess ( and hope ) is that this sharp decline ( 45 cents in 24 hours ) will represent the last 'correction' in this market. From here to the grand finally is likely to be a straight line.

My reasoning is that the player attempting to scare out weak longs ultimately will lose the war and will be forced to cover. I can not believe that the squeezers will give up the game just as things are starting to get interesting. Rumor has it that in the squeezer corner is at least one big fund. If the assets of this fund are around $10 billion and they own 100 million ounces of silver purchased at an average cost of say $4.75 then 6 dollar silver would represent a profit of 125 million dollars or 1.25% appreciation for the fund. Not a big win. History has shown that these large funds only engage in these sorts of plays if a real opportunity presents itself. Though they are not always successful, they generally don't bail out without a fight. When the covering begins it will be siezed upon by the players orchestrating the squeeze to really get the ball rolling. The sqeezers ultimately have the upperhand in this game because they can simply buy up the physical of which there is not much left. If the supply / demand deficit is real ( and by all accounts it is ) once the stockpiles are gone the market will work its magic and ration demand through price.

The players involved in the squeeze are more than likely looking to the commercial users as the ultimate purchasers of their silver, just as in the palladium game. The recent pronouncement by the silver users group that the shortage was nonexistant lends great credence to the idea that commercial consumers are caught short with very low inventories and no hedging policies in place. Had their spokesman announced that the rise in silver prices was a normal change in market conditions reflecting declining inventories but that users had been anticipating such a rise for some time, I would have bailed out of our position. The denial phase is upon us. It brings back memories of the coffee roasters who were sure that there were plenty of beans to be had. The were of course right. At $3.00 coffee there was java aplenty.

A couple of other tidbits worth watching. Freeport McMoran has a preferred stock which will pay off in ounces of silver in a few years. Tracking the premium or discount this silver bond trades at has been an indicator of public attention to this market. The current price of this stock is at the greatest discount to silver that I have ever observed. This can partially be explained by the potential declining credit quality of FCX due to falling gold prices but seems exagerated none the less.

Another indicator of the public's appetite for silver speculation is the price of Sunshine Mining. This company has in the past been the public's vehicle for silver speculation. The fact that it has not budged during the last $1.00 rally in silver tells me that the public could not care less.

The lack of response in the silver stocks combined with the denial phase by the users group, does not strike me as the precursor to a meaningful top. I believe that those looking for a retracement back to the 5.50 level will get no chance to board the train.

All of the above is of course filtered through the eyes of one who is thigh deep in silver and hoping to be neck deep in the near future.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:15 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Both funds moved to a New Rally High!

Happy New Year from Lido Isle , Newport Beach, Calif.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:17 - ID#227238)
Pedro ( 19:46 ) : Your comments relating a gold standard to restraint is appropriate to the discussion and a vital truism. But out of step with today's world of instant gratification and a core belief that all wants can be satisfied. If only the proper monetary lever can be pushed, pulled or tweaked.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:17 - ID#197328)
Another try

All: Just some thoughts from my perspective at 35,000 feet reference

human nature, etc.

Over the years my profession has taken me across hundreds of thousands

of air miles and has given me the opportunity to observe mankind at

both it's worst and it's best. Mostly I've noticed a change for the

worst among certain groups of air travelers.

The greatest change has occurred within the group I would call the

'Priveleged Business Elite'. Eating With the Sharks, Swimming With the

Pihranas and Negotiating With the Barracudas over the years certainly

has increased their wealth considerably. But at what expense? Many times

their grasp of basic manners or civility to their fellow travelers is

painfully and obviously missing. ( And what values are they passing on

to their offspring? ) . As I stand in the cockpit door, in uniform, very

few of them look me in the eye anymore or offer an

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:21 - ID#215379)
Was this rally in gold and silver, just a Dead Cat Bounce
Now that I have put all my cash into gold and silver stocks

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:22 - ID#31868)
I yike it! Yike it alot! I have held back a junk of cash for a moment such as this. I am hoping to see one or two of my favorite silver stocks take a hit in the next couple of days. One in particular that drops like a rock and then flies like a wasp on acid when silver burps or sneezes.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:23 - ID#398105)
For those who may be interested...............


"GOLD - History and Genesis of Deposits", by R W Boyle:
Van Nostrand Reinhold Company, ISBN 0 442 21162 7.

This publication presents the history of gold, the progression of genetic theories of gold deposits from the Pre-classical Period, the Classical Period, Middle Ages, and Renaissance, to the Modern Era. It details the economics of gold and gold mining through 5 000 years. Interesting read.

This publication is not geologically "heavy", and may be of interest to those who wish to "get a feel" for the historical evolution of gold through the ages. Recommended.

Aye, Haggis

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:25 - ID#197328)
I give up

Don't know why it double-spaced and cut off the last two paragraphs.

I'm too slow at this. ( I don't move too fast, either ) .

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:27 - ID#401460)
Silver 6010 -175
Oil 1760 -2
Gas 2235 -45
Corn 2666 -4

XAU didn't look like a dead cat today. Investors moved into the mining stocks today. I don't know what the volume of the move was but there was a year end portfolio adjustment made to day.

And Bonds were nervous today.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:27 - ID#197328)
I give up

Don't know why it double-spaced and cut off the last two paragraphs.

I'm too slow at this. ( I don't move too fast, either ) .

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:29 - ID#197328)
I give up

Don't know why it double-spaced and cut off the last two paragraphs.

I'm too slow at this. ( I don't move too fast, either ) .

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:29 - ID#398105)
Last one for 1997...........


Australian Stock Exchange homepage:

Aye, Haggis

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:29 - ID#286199)
Mike Sheller mentioned SSC in September and I followed up with a question to him in October after buying some. Mike's advice was to hold it for the long term. Somebody on Vronsky's site also favored it in an essay. The current resident cheerleader is LGB. I share your frustration with SSC, but they keep diluting the share pool to finance exploration and expansion. The 52-week low is 62 cents and they closed today at 1.00 down .062 so not too shabby for the year. SSC did hit 1.25 briefly this year, so you could say they doubled! Their current costs are high ( over $4 per ounce ) so silver needs to stay above 6 for a quarter or two before SSC will really shine ( pun intended ) .

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:35 - ID#25588)
Moving Averages
Golden Boy, A correction, I do use a system of M.A.'s to trade Fidelity Selects, but not futures.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:36 - ID#301188)
To All
--In cyberspace/kitcoland there is no fixed time. So, exactly when do we celebrate New Years Eve guys?
-Who's going to be the first to greet 1998?
-May you all be happy, may you be free from suffering, may you have equanimity and be free from hatred and attachment.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:36 - ID#401460)
JT8D (Another try)
Keep trying I would like to hear your thoughts and experiences. If you can stand in the cockpit you can handle the Kitco controls.

Are you trying to use the "preview"? My experience has been that It will double space when it post. Try creating your post in your word processing application using spell check then copy and paste into the Kitco Comment window. Just a suggestion - good luck!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:36 - ID#31868)
How about posting the last two paragraphs, my curiosity is getting the best of me at this point. You are on a roll.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:37 - ID#30116)
Newmont Gold Corp. ( NGC ) and Getchell gold ( GGO ) had good moves today. I think a 'few' people saw the WSJ article on the 'consolidation' that may take place in the gold mining industry and who may be the take over candidates.

You know, as much as some say gold is irrelevant, isn't it funny how you can go just about anywhere on this planet and exchange it for the local currency? :- )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:38 - ID#227238)
Panda: Eyeglasses??? Inflation?? ...... Many get along just fine without them. Witness LGB and Karlito for example.

In the meantime, please remember that eyeglasses are just one of many examples of luxury that some, including yourself, would consider a necessity. Rather than continue to carp, in an unpatriotic fashion, consider repeating the LBG/Karlito mantra: There is no inflation. There is no inflation. ...... Periodically ( manically ) you might also consider throwing in something like: I love my country or all is right, good and proper with the world.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:41 - ID#401460)

Time to bring on 1998, Im ready - I got to make some money in 98 - It's gonna be GREAT!!


(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:42 - ID#30116)
Been celebrating for a few nights now...... :- ) ( New Years, that is... )

Just think of it, pallet loads of $100 dollar bills floating down on South Korea and Asia in general... Don't forget to keep on chanting, "There aint no stinkin' inflation to be found no where no how." :- ) )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:42 - ID#31868)
My New Year's revolution is to get Camdesuss!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:48 - ID#364147)
It's a wonderful life........and ALL is right with the world
Now yer talkin Earl........

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:49 - ID#364147)
Panda.........................and Mount Washington
Good decking!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:56 - ID#227238)
Karlito ( 21:47 ) : You are a true believer...... No doubt about it. The future as defined by the manipulation of images, to gain added value, is somewhat remeniscent of 60 year prognostications issuing from the World's Fair of 1939. They fell somewhat short of the mark. I think.

That value is derived from, essentially, nothing can be mostly attributed to a scrambled belief system. Mostly suspended. Further, it is mostly of real interest and value to a very thin crust of humanity.

The remainder are likely to rely on tangibles for some great length of time into the future. Tangibles like carrots, wheat and oatmeal. Or something more tangible than a cyber refrigerator. Items that are, apparently, of no value to the elitists currently extant ( only ) in your world and mine.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:57 - ID#364147)
Down with Quebec!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quote from 'my man' Don Cherry:
I have American who come to Canada for a visit and can't
believe what is going on in Quebec.

One USA guy said "Now let me get this right: you
English-speaking people in the rest of Canada must have
French signs on your highways and yet the French people in
Quebec don't have to have English signs on their highways
because they are distinct and you let them get away with this

I didn't tell him that we have to have French on all our things in
stores, yet in Quebec they have only French. I was too

Well, how about the latest? The language police in Quebec
went after a Jewish guy who is a gravestone maker because his
50-year-old sign didn't have letters in French that were big
enough, and now they're after the Chinese community about
bigger letters being in French.

Guy Bouthillier, head of the separatist Montreal
St.-Jean-Baptiste Society, says "Chinese characters don't bother

"We can't read them," he said. "Chinese is not a threat. Hebrew
is not a threat. Greek is not a threat."

In other words, you can put up any sign but in English, the
hated language.

Personally, I couldn't care less what signs go up in Quebec -
that's their business.

But what is my business is when our tax money goes taking
French signs for the rest of Canada.

We've got `Sortie' and `Sud' signs all over, but the best of all is
the exit for Yonge Street in Toronto, off the 401 highway.

It used to just have an arrow to show off. Now we have signs
in both languages, and - get this - two arrows. I guess one
arrow is French and the other English.

We haven't got one, not one premier of any province with the
guts in their body to stand up to Quebec, for fear of offending

So, in a way, you have to admire the French - they have guts.
They keep threatening to leave to get more perks and don't give
a damn about us or what we think.

We just roll over and say "Please don't leave."

I say, "Quit teasing us."

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(Tue Dec 30 1997 22:57 - ID#30116)
Sorry, but I accidently contacted a live line while wearing a ground strap the other day. Due to this shocking experience with reality, I just can't bring myself to that state of induced hypnosis needed to fall for this 'new paradigm' stuff.

I think I have discovered the cure for this mania that is afflicting the masses! Passing a few hundred volts ( I was lucky, the caps were bleeding down, it should of been 2KV ) down the hand and out the wrist works wonders in correcting any brain dysfunctions. It works quickly, I might add. Also, I've got to thank the person who put those one meg resistors in the ground straps. Also, MOS devices can go to hell! No more anti-static straps for this boy while working on these toys...

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:01 - ID#31868)
I saw the documentary Canadian Bacon. Those people scare me.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:01 - ID#30116)
How do you hold the decking down with 100 MPH gusts? Isn't tough to hold the plank down while reaching for the nails ( or screw and screw gun ) ? :- ) )

BTW, temp down to 1.975 Degrees F ( Gee, does that accuracy matter at those temps? )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:01 - ID#215379)
anyone ?
Please tell me again, why gold has to go up from here. What is the surprise the Japanese Fin. Minister has for us if the Yen goes above 130 to the Dollar ?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:01 - ID#255284)
bits & pieces, bits and pieces,
Ted: It is all mispent, that's why it's worth so much.
Speed: whatever our beliefs, we are all lunatics within the metaphor of that post.
Earl, SDR_er thanks.
Haggis I once spent Hogmanay in Dunfermlin ( sp? ) with relatives ( got them everywhere ) and each Hogmanay since I've hoped to have that much blind fun again... Guess I'll have to wait..''''On the Bonnie bonnie banks of Loch Lomond'''''

I wish all prosperity and health for the New Year

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:02 - ID#227238)
Aurator: You silver tongued devil. Yer on a roll tonight. Tight prose and well conceived thoughts. ..... or should that be reversed? No matter. Yer on a roll fer shur.

Golden Boy
(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:05 - ID#430233)
Thanks for your response. I agree with your view of not giving up your gains especially in this bear market. I think there needs to be testing of the recent lows before feeling confident that things are bottoming out.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:07 - ID#364147)
Tolerant1...............................from Leeming land
They should scare you cause they're very sick people!!...The mistake in the beginning of Don Cherry's quote can be attributed to the fact that it was printed in a Nova Scotia paper and attention to detail ain't a strong point here ( what is?? ) ....Five years of this Quebec-French thing makes me want to PUKE.....

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:11 - ID#30116)
Gold doesn't have to do anything it doesn't want to. Consider this, there are people buying the stock market this week to beat the 'rise' coming in January. Why should the stock market rise because it'll be January in a day or so? Go figure. I certainly can't tell the market what to do! Look at palladium. Limit up today. Why? Uncertainty over Russian supplies. Why did that happen today and not tomorrow or yesterday? Were the supplies of palladium any more certain last week than today? I'm not trying to be sarcastic here. Markets are like a flock of birds. Did you ever see flock of birds flying in one direction, and then suddenly, violently, change direction for no apparent reason?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:12 - ID#252207)
Karlito 21:25 post
While it is true, a well placed investment in paper may exceed the return on an investment in gold, the trick is to know which is the right paper. If you had made investments in say 1917 Duetche marks, or 1997 Thai bahts, I suspect gold would be the better investment.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:13 - ID#401460)
Things are Changing
"South Africa "recognizes that there is but one China in the world, the
government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government
representing the whole of China, and recognizes China's position that Taiwan
is an inalienable part of China," the agreement said."

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:14 - ID#30116)
Aint DIVerSITY WOnerful? Ebonics anyone? OH I LEARNT TO spiel this why cuz it dint hurt my feelins...

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:17 - ID#364147)
Panda.......and birds
The 'birds' in Cape Breton do that~~~~~~~~~so yes,I have seen it! Suppose ya don't believe in the 'Santa Claus' rally either....

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:17 - ID#256201)
li'l garrulous boy re: WACO debacle.
To attempt to tie the disgust felt by decent, thinking persons as they peruse ( please learn the exact definition ) the facts about Waco, to gold-greediness or Nation hating, is not worthy of the "new, reformed LGB".
We here in Mena, Arkansas, have been making book on how long your string of rational posts would prevail. A couple of days is all you seem to have been able to stomach of your new persona. We like it so much more than the old ones!
Congratulations for your meaningful and well reasoned posts pertaining to precious metal and economics these past few days.
I hope you will cease to attempt to put thoughts into the heads of others re: the terrible state to which OUR government has been brought by GREEDY Elitists.
The facts are these: Elitists do exist. They DO control the economics and as a result, the politics of not only OUR Nation, but many others on the planet.
I would like to believe you can function as one of the folks. However there are times when I feel you must have your Rx regularly. I won't presume to guess as to the contents of your fix. Could be Prozac, Lithium, ad infinitum.
At any rate, I enjoy you when you are not so assinine as to try to be comedic in relation to the very real problems created in OUR Nation by the Elitists.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:19 - ID#227238)
Panda: With the product you're dealing with, a $2 semiconductor ain't worth yer life. IMO. It's important to note that they can fibrillate as well as defibrillate. ..... Like gold and patriotism, it's all in the timing.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:20 - ID#364147)
Panda......and Ebonics...................and Bouchard suks
I'd rather live in dear old Cape Breton than RACIST quebec.....and that's sayin a mouthful~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:24 - ID#364147)
What I'm lookin forward to
Gettin a god-damn box of salt and NOT reading sel de table on the freakin box......

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:24 - ID#31868)
wherever ya are. gulp, gulp, a double shot of Tyrannosaurus Mex to ya.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:25 - ID#30116)
Wasn't that supposed to happen BEFORE Christmas?

Time to hit the hay. Gold looks like it will test the lows, but the stocks ( so far ) seem to want to go the other way. You know, THE OTHER WAY. Yes, that's right, up? Then again, buy Intel. They just cut prices on their 'low end' Pentium II processors. ( Snicker, snicker ) My, such short product cycles... It's got to be hell on the bottom line.

Good night all. HAPPY NEW YEAR where ever and whenever it happens.... :- )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:28 - ID#344308)

hang seng down 114 pts.....1.4%------

no reading on nikkei--------anybody know where it stands??

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:30 - ID#315256)
@ Earl........Inflation
Earl, how could you possibly say that I believe "there is no inflation"??
Just yesterday, I gave an example of the ravages of inflation. You know, how a home in Santa Clara ( Silicon ) Valley, could have been purchased with 110 ounces of Gold in 1980, and now that SAME home goes for 1,000 OUNCES!!

Talk about inflation! a 1000 percent gain in price of the house in comparison to relative Gold value, ...or a 90% loss in the value of the "secure" and "Intrinsic" Gold value, depending on how you look at it.

Ohhh we've had inflation all right. Unfortunately, Gold has been the WORST possible hedge against it, as it has totally crashed in value from it's 1980 "mania bubble" highs in ways comparable to the great crash in equities of 1929.

In fact, Gold may have experienced the greatest crash of any major "investment" vehicle in the past 20 years or the next 100 for that matter. It's the worst crash of a "safe" investment in my lifetime, and likely will remain so in my never humble opinion.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:30 - ID#364147)
Gettin an early'm using what little will power I have to wait till tomorrow night when me and the mrs will drive ta the casino and celebrate our LAST New Year's Eve in Cape Breton....

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:31 - ID#401460)
Hong Kong
Hong Kong
Hang Seng ^HSI 11:26PM 10640.27 -114.94 -1.07%
What markets do they have closed ?
South Korea, Japan, ......?
Is Yahoo working tonight?

What's with the new Kitco chart layout - and frozen again. London open durring New York now?

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:32 - ID#287207)
Dans la salle du mange avec mon chien et le feu
Nikkei up 384

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:32 - ID#30116)
It's those damn $20 IGBTs ( Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors ) ... well never mind. Fortunately, I remembered the 'one hand' rule. I just forgot I was wearing the damn ground strap!

You know the old saying; Shock me once, shame on me. Shock me twice? NFW! :- ) ) Goodbye ground straps!!!! IGBTs, tough luck.... The Fed will see to it that there are plenty of twenty dollar bills around to buy more IGBTs. :- ) )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:32 - ID#364147)
Nikkei is up 1,400

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:36 - ID#315256)
@ Cherokee @ 22:07.........rumors of Silvers death are greatly exagerrated
Where am I? On DA's train of course! Read his post, excellent analysis.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:37 - ID#364147)

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:42 - ID#315256)
@ Karlito
Dammit Karlito, your 21:29 stole my thunder! I had to drive home and was all set to respond to goodoleboy, your posts today are at genious level, rendering completely uneeded at this site. What a load off my amateur shoulders, a REAL economist/analyst has shown up who can state with aplomb and expertise, all the things I've been trying to say here for months!

Kitcoites would do well to sit at the feet of the master, and quit whining about 6000 years of history in Gold, that will bear little relevance to us as we live out our years.....

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:42 - ID#287207)
Hablo espagnol
OK Bon nuit. Ne prenez pas les nickle du bois M Ted.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:44 - ID#31868)
I miss sharefin's unique input on Kitco. And since you have allowed me the privilege, gulp, Full Metal Sombrero.

Get Camdesuss!

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:45 - ID#287207)
Nikkei now up 484. Its like things are out of control when NA sleeps.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:46 - ID#31868)
In the dining room with my dog by the fire.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:47 - ID#189273)
On the subject of that $100 invested in the 1929 U. S. Stockmarket at the top. Don't look to today's DJIA numbers to figure your gains or losses. Don't have my history books to hand, so you'll have to do your own research on this, but I am sure that many of the best 1929 stocks were worthless paper by the mid 30's. The stocks on the DJIA today just aren't the same stocks.

As a company "matures" and loses its glitter - and growing power, it is simply retired from the DJIA, and replaced with an exciting ( profitable and growing ) company. That's why our currently has Walmart and MacDonald's. They removed the steels quietly some years ago. This has been a consistent pattern throughout the years. An investor would have to be very much on his toes, and very lucky, to have the gains you suggest. After all, most folks didn't sell in the crash of '29. It was a bottlenecked mess. They just saw their paper lose its value. They'd all be rich if what you reckoned was true.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:48 - ID#287207)
Tolerant1: Way to go my French is so bad I am surprised you could read it. Actually my French is so bad I use the English arrow to exit the King's highway.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:50 - ID#364147)
Tolerant1....................and Selby
Tolerant1: Wish I was with ya in Huntington right now and we could really tie-one-on!!!! Selby: yer gettin me mad---speak GD english~~~~~

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:53 - ID#364147)
I like dogs,fires,Tequilla,Rum,Gin,Beer,Wine ( all @ once )

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:56 - ID#315256)
@ Sheller/Vronsky
You two know damn well that I'm too young to have served in any armed conflict for my country a la the Nam, and too old to have served in Desert storm, though I would have certainly heeded the call with gladness if it had been given when I was of draftable age.

As to service, I've served in several "voluntarism" roles, assisting the elderly, feeding the homeless, and contributing both my money AND more importantly my TIME to to charitable service in community outreach orhganizations including "Big Brothers of America", and local coaching.

As to career, I've been an engineer all my life, involved in programs that IMHO helped end the cold war during my defense electronic countermeasures days , and send communication satellites into space currently, with stints in the semiconductor field in between. Not totally sacrificial certainly, but at least productive in something rather than snake oil information peddling.

Now as to my privacy, I will continue to protect it, thank you, for many very good reasons I have expounded on here at length before on several ocassions, not the least of which is that I've made it clear I hols a rather large amount of physical precious metals in my posession, and have a family.

Unlike yourselves, I;m not here to promote my "business" and I'm not here to make a living selling "analysis". I'm here to give my opnion, learn, participate, have a good time, and critisize when I see "CRAP" and nonsense being spouted.

And though I never served my country at arms, I've studied enough U.S. history, and enough FAMILY history to have a rudimentary understanding of just what kind of sacrifices were made to build what we have. I have a genuine appreication of this place, and would NEVER EVER say as Puetz has


It doesn't take military service to qualify me to call him what he is my friends.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:56 - ID#287207)
OK GD English if you like.

(Tue Dec 30 1997 23:57 - ID#288337)
Don't know when, don't know where, don't know why. Just know what.
I have bought physical gold, slowly and consistently over many years. Yes I have other paper investments, real estate, beanie babies, etc. Gold is not a game for me. It serves as my root of security. My paper assets continue to grow. So does my physical gold.

I am an optimist, but I know the myth of paper exisits as long as there are believers and I'd say a big chunk of the world has experienced its myth first hand. Portentious for the future? You bet!

The whole house of baseless financial cards is starting to tremble. The winds of the printing press will bring the house down. When I don't know ( or necessarily care ) I will not be happy. But I and my family will have something that the printers can't debase... the shiny metal.