1998
I that really you?

you made it~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Could be worse.... You could be on the Rock Pile ( MT. Washington
) -22 F with 60 -70 MPH winds...... OUCH!!

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! One more for the floor! :_ ) )

WHAT IS THIS OCTOBER #%#%$$$#!!!!!!

Hah, this is gonna be fun, y'all look at the date at the top, why it's October again.

Get those gold shorts in!!! I know the game plan by now. I'll make a ton o cash by December... ( '97 ) :- ) )

But can't wait ta get the fuk out-of-here....two months and poof---gone!
puff...puff...sip....aaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

It was January 1, 1997 at exactly 12:05AM ( Eastern Standard Time ) that GOLD-EAGLE MADE ITS DEBUT in cyber-world via the Kitco Gold Forum. We are here again to celebrate our FIRST ANNIVERSARY.

Many thanks for the more than 1,500,000 accesses from 105 countries! It was - and remains - great fun serving you. We feel the following is very apropos for the momentous occasion.

Perhaps Shakespeare had all GOLDBUGS in mind when he wrote this inspiring thought:


"There is a tide in the affairs of men,
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat;
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose forever our ventures."

........ William Shakespeare

From the frozen North ;warm wishes to all for a prosperous new year.

In a manner of speaking.................................................

Congratulations!

Will a 'new island' infront ( 5 miles ) of us----Frenchboro ( population 37 )

gotta post to read just wait till y2k.

Typical techies ( sorry kitco wire-heads ) go on holiday, forget that January follows December. Ya see Bart, a programmer is a beautiful person in their own right, but you gotta do the thinking for them sometimes...


Another Public Broadcasting Service From


Redundant Messaging Systems Ltd


aurator

Vronsky, congrats, but according to Kitco this is October...........

I take it that we are now working on North American time, I always thought that you lads very a wee bit ssssslllllooooowwwww..........

Aye, Haggis

Vronsky congratulations on your anniversary. May you have many more before Y2K!

Groundhog Day anyone?

Well I am ready for the November suprises.

G'day,

And this is not even the Year 2000............STRUTH.

Aye, Haggis

In a manner of speakin---huh-DUH...and by-the-way,I wouldn't mind camping out on the summit of Mt Washington tonight cause I wouldn't feel a damn thingy...sip...sip.... ( pace yerself boy ) ....sluuurp

I know why I like the Stooges so much, almost all of their money used in the skits is silver or gold coin....

Congrats.....even if ya spelled Nikkei wrong ( sly grin thing )

Yer Lakers SUK!

Hmmmmm, got the right 'post' date, but viewing date is off a 'little' :- ) )

What's a few months~~~~~~~

OK. Got it.
Once you have posted in 1998 RELOAD do NOT use SUBMIT Button


Sometimes you're the windshield
Sometimes you're the bug

another undocumentd featurette.

The other aspect of this inflation thingy is that the 'bottles' seem to empty faster these days............?

Yeah, I made in to 1998. Now, let's see what this year holds for us!

OK. Got it.
Once you have posted in 1998 to read comments RELOAD do NOT use SUBMIT Button


Sometimes you're the windshield
Sometimes you're the bug

another undocumented featurette.

got it right that time

Captioned as a world reknown analyst who amassed 400% profits in paper assets while Kitco Goldbugs suffered huge embarrasing loses, but who by his virtuous understanding of these sub-human creatures "forgave" and by his constant bickering converted their mental state and loses which were quickly converted to huge PAPER gains.
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL ( including our savior and new diety )

aurator, Haggis_A -- Happy new Year! Although I suspect that you have been in the New Year for about 12-14 hours already! So how does gold look? :- ) )

Ted -- I think I've developed a tolerance to this alcohol stuff...... Perhaps being an oil bug would be better for the next few weeks????

Rum in Maine is less than half expensive as here ( huge grin thingy )

What year is this?/?

Your not going to one of those areas they call T2R4 or something? ( They don't have names for them, so they give them numbers. ) , are you? ( T=Township, R=Region )

Panda 18 hours of '98 and no catastrophes. This computer hiccup shows how hard it is to plan even for known events, and how dependant we have become.

I Lift my glass to Panda, Ted, Haggis, and all those lost in October 1997
Cheers!

G'Day,

Happy New Year - we have had time to recover!!

"To argue that financial markets in general, and international lending

in particular, need to be regulated is likely to outrage the financial

community; yet the evidence for just that is overwhelming," Mr Soros

states. He believes the private sector is ill-suited to allocate

international credit. Mr Soros has argued before against the view that

free markets should be left to correct themselves without government

intervention. But this is the first time he has proposed an

international loan guarantee institution of this type. Mr Soros hopes

Monday's decision by international banks to roll over some of their

debts to South Korea marks a turning point.

It is worth while re-iterating a comment made a few weeks ago.......In

1932 Stephen Leacock, a Canadian economist and humorist stated: "We have LkAmN

G'Day,

Happy New Year - we have had time to recover!!
"To argue that financial markets in general, and international lending in particular, need to be regulated is likely to outrage the financial community; yet the evidence for just that is overwhelming," Mr Soros
states. He believes the private sector is ill-suited to allocate international credit. Mr Soros has argued before against the view that
free markets should be left to correct themselves without government
intervention. But this is the first time he has proposed an international loan guarantee institution of this type. Mr Soros hopes Monday's decision by international banks to roll over some of their debts to South Korea marks a turning point.
It is worth while re-iterating a comment made a few weeks ago.......In
1932 Stephen Leacock, a Canadian economist and humorist stated: "We have
to have - I would not say "stable" prices; you can only have a world in
which the price level moves slowly with a regular and intermittent
oscillation. But you can have and must have a fixed exchange. You cannot
have a foreign trade based upon monetary speculation; you have got to
have something absolutely stable for your dealings with foreign nations,
and I tell you, gentlemen, I am convinced that there is nothing that
will take the place of some absolutely metallic ( GOLD ) standard, some
standard of things, and not of opionions" Leacock S 1932. "If gold
should cease to be gold", Canadian IMM Bull 25 ( 244 ) ; 430-439
What was that connection between Soros and Rothchild?????????????!!!!!!!!
Aye, Haggis

As matter of FACT our area is T2R4----you are now entering the 'Twilight Zone'.......where nothin is as 'it' appears~~~~~

I have the advantage! I know the future! :- ) )

Ah well, atleast I could have broken even by shorting gold....

'98 has got to better than '97 was. ( He said with, with great optimism. )

Haven't had my damn e-mail service foe the whole damn year fer christ sakes----Ominous start...eh..........down to the river we ride---sing it 'Boss'.....

We forgive you but don't do 'it' again~~~~~~~~~

Vronsky-I hope you know who you are dealing with.Expect a explosive 1998 You arrogant Slime Ball.Keep posting your dribble and you will find contradiction .Good-bye Yellow Brick Road. Never Offend Old Friends.P.S.I Will Get Your Karma

G'Day,

Would it appear that Mr Soros, in stating a case for an International Loan Guarantee Institution, is looking for a single CENTRAL GOLD BANK to back up the existing multitude of Central Banks. Or is that a wee bit FARFETCHED...........

Aye, Haggis

I have about $20.000 to invest and Im wondering...should it be

numismatic gold coins?
gold bullion?
or silver bullion....or
perhaps Platinum...any help out there

The further we supposedly exit the 'cave', the more I believe that 'we' as a specie have not changed much, if at all! The same bastards that did the fowl deeds in the late twenties and early thirties are here again ( did they ever leave us? ) . The 'control' has just gone to the next 'higher' level.

Six pack has long documented the history. I forget if it was Hagel or someone else ( to much Rum! ) but, "What we learn from history is that we do not learn from history." Twas ever so.

Down to the river, what a great song

away to BarbQ ( close your ears Ted ) lots of little creatures...bbll

It's a long 'trip'....eh~~~~chug....chug....burp

Like the Bank of England strikes back.

When we lived in Vermont ( 13 years ) we spent every New Year's Eve in Atlantic City........'meet me tonight in Atlantic City'......

You'll not get sober advise from me, but.... ALWAYS put a few coins away first. Be it one or two or ten. Then forget about them. After you've done that, the rest is speculation. Stocks, index options, futures, options on futures, etc. Loss is part of that game! The trick is to limit the losses. This is not so easy to master. It just sounds easy. Never confuse dumb luck with skill! Always cut your losses short and let your profits run. There, you now have all of the market knowledge that you need. Now you need experience. There are no guarentees around here. If I keep this up, they're going to pull my keyboard license. :- ) )

Gold stocks are a risky proposition. They rise and fall quick! You must be nimble. I have my favorites. Some good long term plays MAY be SWC, GGO, and NGC. Do the research. Come to your own conclusions. I also like Western Deep, although like some lady pandas, WDEPY has been somewhat fickle of late. :- ) )

Later dudes.............. Long after the sun rises around here....

Nite

Ted:
little creatures get their revenge, outa gas.

Charlie, Big Ask old boy

First Answer some questions
1 what's your investment horizon? ( Mine's like that horrid movie The lost Horizon )
2 What's your risk profile? (  thinks I look like James Bond )
3 How comfortable are you losing all your money? ( I break into a cold sweat at the thought, but then again, I'm pretty clammy )
4 Can you sleep at night with open positions? ( That's Kama Sutra Stuff )
5 If you give me all your money and I lose it will you expose me on kitco ( tgl hi baby! )
6 Or just send flaming arrows ( cherokee ) or threaten to kill me and Camdessus ( the oxymoronic tolerant1 - luv you too )
7 How much do you know about numismatic coins? ( The less you know, the more I want to know you )
8 Mate, a word to the wise, there will be a dozen correct possible portfolios presented to you, I hope in the hours to come, you gotta make your own mind up.


aurobfuscator

Your home town--your own town....130 minutes into the 'new' year and still NO e-mail service....'glory days'....

G'day,

Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that neither a Hungarian or an Englishman have yet been to Outer Space. Las Vagas, yes!!

Aye, Haggis

Think I'm beginning ta see the first faint 'hint' of sunrise and will keep you posted ) ....or is that neighbor Eddie cathin his place on fire AGAIN....

The New Year-It's Strange that Vronsky And Gold Eagle Post here everyday on the great latitudes of owning Gold.Away to Make my money at WorkingFor A Living.

LGB says he worships at the feet of Karlitto so I think we have a problem to sort out here. LGB is good, no doubt, but Karlitto says the only mistake he made in 30 years of investing was when he bought S&P puts on Puetz's advice. I think Karlitto has to get the nod.

G'Day,

Title - no reference to any Asian Currency Crisis. Maybe it does not esist!! I think that Kenneth Gooding must be one of Clintons' speech writers.............STRUTH
"Gold has always been more than a precious metal - men have even lost
their lives for it. But no longer. Gold has fallen from grace and is now
a mere metal and a bad investment. Kenneth Gooding explains why most of
the glister has disappeared".
------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Gold, frankincense and myrrh. The three wise men deemed these gifts suitable for the King
of Kings two millenniums ago. It says something about gold's staying power that today it
is still a suitable gift for a sovereign, though a more thoughtful wise man may swap the
precious metal for US Treasury bonds.
Mankind's fascination with gold goes back much further than 2,000 years. For primitive
man, the attraction was aesthetic. Gold glinted at him from streams and river beds. He
found it so malleable that, even cold, it could be hammered into crude ornaments and
artefacts. Beauty and scarcity gave gold mystical appeal, and it became the stuff of
temples, icons, idols, and offerings to the gods.
Ancient Egypt and Rome drew much power from gold, mined by slaves in conditions of
unbelievable misery. "There is absolutely no consideration nor relaxation for sick or
maimed, for aged man or weak woman," wrote the historian Diodorus in the 2nd century
BC.
Similar conditions existed in Siberian gold mines up to the 1960s and miners still descend
the deep shafts of South Africa knowing that, even if they obey the safety rules, there is no
guarantee they will come out alive.
For the rich, and for the poor who sought it, gold was a tangible, long-term store of
wealth, acceptable anywhere, a safe haven at times of disaster.
But gold is not what it once was. The image has been tarnished - apart from a couple of
blips, its price has been drifting downwards for more than a decade. This week the price
was the lowest for 18 years.
The 1987 stock market crash, the Gulf war and a meltdown of Asia'sfinancial markets did
not cause the expected rush for gold.
So, has gold had its day, at least as an investment? Has the glister gone? Is it only the
sentimental and the gold obsessed, the bugs, who still seek it out and, as Virgil put it, have
the "cursed craving for gold"?
Ted Arnold has no craving. He is a gold bear and metals specialist at the Merrill Lynch
financial services group: "The reality is that gold is now a commodity just like any other.
Many gold miners still think gold is something special or magical and not subject to the
usual laws of supply and demand like copper or zinc or nickel. But it is."
But will everyone everywhere eventually stop viewing gold as an investment? Is the end of
the affair an inevitable outcome of modernisation, when money transfers are automatic and
unseen, and there is talk that cash itself will disappear? When it became clear that people
needed a medium of exchange, gold was the medium of choice. Croesus, King of Lydia, is
credited with ordering the first gold coins to be struck in 550 BC.
Gold's great appeal was its indestructability. It does not tarnish like silver and is generally
not corroded by acid. Gold coins have been recovered from sunken treasure ships looking
as bright as new. And the metal still has its modern moments. There was a rush to gold
savings accounts in Japan after television newcasts of the 1995 Kobe earthquake showed
an old woman tearing at the rubble of her house and triumphantly pulling out an
unscathed, glittering gold bar.
There are estimates, not uncontested, that until 1850 only 10,000 tonnes of gold had ever
been mined. The 1848-49 Californian gold rush changed all that, followed by the
discovery of huge gold fields in South Africa in the 1890s. There was another belated rush
in 1980 after the price jumped to $850 - almost three times its present price.
Miners have been using new techniques and modern technology to locate and remove the
gold. Last year, a record 2,350 tonnes were dug from the world's mines, or 75.56m
ounces.
A turning point occurred when gold became a standard measure of wealth, personal and
national. Formal "gold standards" were introduced by trading nations after the Californian
rush ensured there was enough metal available. Britain's began in 1816 and the rest of
Europe followed in the 1870s. The US did not finally divorce itself from a silver-gold
standard until 1900, about the same time as India.
The gold standard was meant to discipline an economy. The price was fixed and the
currency was redeemable in gold. The UK gave up this system in 1919 but it persisted in
the US until 1933.
Between the 1930s and 1972 there was an "international gold exchange standard" which
involved central banks supplementing their gold reserves with certain key currencies that,
in theory, could be redeemed for gold.
All this led to central banks building substantial stocks of gold and caused one Yale
professor, Robert Triffin, famously to remark: "Nobody could ever have conceived of a
more absurd waste of human resources than to dig gold in distant corners of the earth for
the sole purpose of transporting it and reburying it immediately afterwards in other deep
holes, especially excavated to receive it and heavily guarded to protect it."
Today, most gold goes to make jewellery rather than into central bank vaults. According
to the Gold Fields Mineral Services consultancy, 2,807 tonnes of gold was used by
jewellery makers last year.
Unreconstructed gold bulls emphasise that this was far more than the 2,350 tonnes that
came out of mines during the year. Demand for gold this year has been at record levels -
Indians, for example, bought more in the first nine months than in the whole of 1996 - yet
the dollar price of gold has slumped by 20 per cent. The price has fallen because of
increasing fears that central banks will steadily sell off gold - they still have 37,000 tonnes
tucked away in vaults, equivalent to more than 12 years' supply.
The new breed of central banker is not dazzled by gold and sees little point in having an
asset that just takes up storage space. Some have been getting a modest return by lending
gold to bullion banks, earning 1 or 2 per cent and adding to market liquidity.
That did not satisfy performance-oriented bankers, economic rationalists who were not
charmed by the romance of gold. For them, as for the 14th century Scottish poet Andrew
of Wyntoun, "Oure gold wes changyd into lede". So the central bankers started selling.
The Netherlands said in January that it had sold 300 tonnes, the fourth disposal since
1989; since then it has cut gold reserves by 20 per cent. In July, Australia shook the
market by announcing that it had reduced its gold reserves by two-thirds - even a leading
gold producer seemed to have lost the faith.
And, two weeks ago, Argentina revealed it had sold its entire gold reserves in the first half
of this year, all 124 tonnes, and invested the proceeds, $1.46bn, in US Treasury bonds.
Echoing the views of other central banks that complain gold is an unproductive asset,
Argentina's bank pointed out the bonds would yield an average of 5 per cent and were
expected to bring in $81m a year.
The biggest shock of all - and one that triggered the biggest one-day fall in the gold price
for four years - came in October when a panel of Swiss experts suggested their country
should sell more than half its reserves. Switzerland, which has a law forbidding such sales,
had fervently supported the idea that prudent countries should have a reasonable stock of
gold and had refused to sell an ounce.
There have been big pro-fits made from gold's fall from grace. Some big US commercial
banks have made a killing in the last year or so by selling gold short - selling gold they do
not own in the expectation they can buy it at a lower price before they have to deliver.
The gold market is now very much in the hands of these banks and New York investment
funds, according to Timothy Green, who has been tracking the gold business for 30 years.
He suggests that the trade has changed more in that time than in the preceding 4,000
years.
In his book World of Gold*, Green argues that the ending of a fixed price for gold by
international governments in 1968 and the transformation in communications have
combined to change the gold market. "For many new players in the market, volatility, not
stability, was the chief attraction; to them it did not matter whether the price went up or
down, as long as it moved. The communications network brought everyone together,
round the world, round the clock and made the gold price a moveable feast."
Nevertheless, there are still many millions of people who retain a deep faith in gold. There
are large parts of Asia where only a social revolution could change the gold habit. In India,
a farmer buys gold when the monsoons bring good harvests and he sells it when the rains
don't come.
Gold rings and necklaces are lavished on newborn Indian children and an Indian bride is
weighed down with gold jewellery. For an Indian woman, prevented by Hindu law from
having any proprietary rights over her father's or husband's property, personal gold
ornaments and jewellery offer financial security.
Gold has retained symbolic value in the straight-forward transactions of rural India, but it
has been diminished by the modern trading techniques in exchanges in the US and Europe.
The money flowing into physical gold - more than $27bn this year - is overwhelmed by
amounts ploughed into securities that are derived from gold.
In London in October, for example, gold worth $13.6bn a day was traded. Using exotic
cocktails of options, futures and warrants, the banks and funds are "relieved of the acute
embarrassment of having to take delivery of a single ounce," according to Timothy Green.
But how long will gold's reserve of appeal last in developing countries? "Gold," says Rob
Weinberg, analyst at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, "fills many different roles simultaneously.
It can be an adornment and an industrial metal; a means of displaying wealth and an
anonymous form of saving; an insurance policy and a gambling chip; it is an international
reserve asset yet officially it is not money."
In the western world more people are buying gold to wear, as jewellery or watches,
because it makes them feel good and they can pretend to themselves that these objects will
hold their value. They conveniently ignore the fact that the cost of design, production,
profit and taxes usually far outstrips the value of the gold content.
But when it comes to bullion as an investment, and as a measure of national wealth, gold
is a goner. The reverse alchemy is almost complete. Eddie George, governor of the Bank
of England, like Fort Knox, one of the great citadels of gold, recently told a European
parliamentary committee: "Whereas gold used to be seen as a good asset, it is now seen as
the bottom of the pile."

Why does Gold eagle and Vronsky post so many links here everyday?Does he support Kitco?Doubt It! Another slime that uses people.

This article has already been posted and discussed at length.
The two as yet unanswered questions I posed were.

1. When has anybody heard of Central Banks selling their COPPER?

2. Why have we NOT heard of the US Central Bank selling its GOLD?

Where's yer New Year's 'spirit'~~~~~~~~~~~

Does anyone have any idea of the exposure that the North American and European Commercial Banks, as opposed to Central Banks, have with the CURRENT Asian financial crisis? I may be a wee bit slow here, but I wonder what the tie in is BETWEEN gold future/derivative trading AND the Commercial Banks exposure, if any. I have taken the liberty of extracting some KEY elements from Kenneth Goodings article.

The new breed of central banker is not dazzled by gold ..............

... did not satisfy performance-oriented bankers, economic rationalists who were notcharmed by the romance of gold. So the central bankers started selling.

There have been big pro-fits made from gold's fall from grace. Some big US commercialbanks have made a killing in the last year or so by selling gold short - selling gold they do not own in the expectation they can buy it at a lower price before they have to deliver.

The gold market is now very much in the hands of these banks and New York

Does anyone have any idea of the exposure that the North American and European Commercial Banks, as opposed to Central Banks, have with the CURRENT Asian financial crisis? I may be a wee bit slow here, but I wonder what the tie in is BETWEEN gold future/derivative trading AND the Commercial Banks exposure, if any. I have taken the liberty of extracting some KEY elements from Kenneth Goodings article.
The new breed of central banker is not dazzled by gold ..............
... did not satisfy performance-oriented bankers, economic rationalists who were notcharmed by the romance of gold. So the central bankers started selling........There have been big pro-fits made from gold's fall from grace. Some big US commercialbanks have made a killing in the last year or so by selling gold short - selling gold they do not own in the expectation they can buy it at a lower price before they have to deliver.
The gold market is now very much in the hands of these banks and New York investment funds..........The money flowing into physical gold - more than $27bn this year - is overwhelmed by amounts ploughed into securities that are derived from gold..........In London in October, for example, gold worth $13.6bn a day was traded. Using exotic cocktails of options, futures and warrants, the banks and funds are "relieved of the acute embarrassment of having to take delivery of a single ounce," according to Timothy Green...........But how long will gold's reserve of appeal last in developing countries? "Gold," says Rob Weinberg, analyst at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, "fills many different roles simultaneously. It can be an adornment and an industrial metal; a means of displaying wealth and ananonymous form of saving; an insurance policy and a gambling chip; it is an international reserve asset yet officially it is not money."

Charlie-Cash will be king but then Vronsky will tell you buy Gold um# yes# LGB.

Give me an A for effort....g'nite all and HAPPY NEW YEAR

Haggis: Sending a Hungarian and an Englishman connected to the Bank of England; off together on the same spaceship would solve the problem.
Indivigual space shots may compound the problem and would be costly; as for Vegas' she's just the new chick on the block. Aye
Dave, think that a single newsletter by the two reknown experts would be a better idea. LGB can comment on stocks and % gains; while Karlito on the state of the world's pivital economies. The final discussion can always revert back to glorification of their superb intellect with wise advise to potential goldbugs.

Ted And Zee-Sick of the bull from you know ?Eating Atlantic crab Oh My Oh My another mouth full.HappyTrails East Boys P.S.Out for Killing Slim-balls

A.Auchterlonie, PM analyst has stated that 60% of SA Mines will
report cash losses for the December quarter, with Goldfields reporting
worst, including high grade Kloof, as well as Harmony, D.Deep also
Hartees because of seismic problems. He went on to state that
Anglogold would do better because of hedging programs. SA shares
were down about 5%.

I have read about a "sacred spreadsheet" on mining shares.
IMHO any mathematical evaluation of said shares should always
include location of mine, since investors discount mining shares
located in situations of Political Uncertainty, ( PU Factor ) as has been Historically the case in SA, and I would also include Indonesia among others.

G'Day,

Gid New Year to you.

I have a 5 kilo lump of rock which I look at EVERY morning. What is sooooo exciting about a lump of rock you may ask, well it has nuggets of "FREE GOLD" speckled all through it. Looks good.

With unfolding events and discussions of Central and Commercial Bankers since Christmas Eve, the whole gold scene looks as if it requires a "Wildcard" to upset the apple cart. Japanese? Chinese? Oil-Arabs? Alternatively, Mr Soros and Rothchilds to "corner" all the Central Banks, via an International Loan Guarantee Institution - aren't Rothchilds that anyway?!!

Demand for gold is not going to die, only get bigger. The 8 000 tonne vacuum of physical gold through derivatives.......Bankers do believe in sacrificial goats, they have to cover their arse, so where is the weak link that will set gold upwards? Any suggestions.

- when the large ( covered ) producers are caught out selling into the market ?

Robbing Peter to pay Paul..........

Some big US commercialbanks have made a killing in the last year or so
by selling gold short - selling gold they do not own in the expectation
they can buy it at a lower price before they have to deliver.
The gold market is now very much in the hands of these banks and New
York investment funds..........The money flowing into physical gold -
more than $27bn this year - is overwhelmed by amounts ploughed into
securities that are derived from gold..........

STRUTH, it's like having access to an American Express Card, thinking that you will never have to pay your bill, someone else will do that for you. These guys ( B..wankers ) must relax in a large warm bubble bath, with the bubbles getting bigger by the second, just thinking of the natural resources and people that they are wasting. Perhaps we should get them a shower, and think of the film "Psycho".
Aye, Haggis

Ted-I am Really Surprised that American you will become.If you bump into Vronsky or LGB give them a kick for us!! The Canadians that still believe in Substance and Integrity .Happy Trails.P.S.Feeling you will be back soon.

For Zadeek

I never hear of the guy you mention and I cant spell

his name either. He is probably right - Please see

sacred spreadsheet sportsfans. Dont think any mines

will do very well at prevailing gold price for December

quarter.

Appreciate your interest in RSA, but I cant help

notice that you tend to repeat yourself a bit.

I mean REALLY Zaddekk - the PU factor ??? - or the PEW factor ??

Final thought........

Some, but not all, Commercial Banks appear to have a combined negative liquidity and outstanding gold derivative payement. I wonder who?!

Aye, Haggis

Jack,

Sounds like you hit on the perfect formula for a newsletter. LGB can write Section II: "At the Feet of Karlito, The Master." It should be offered free to Goldbugs until they are cured of their cursed affliction.
What a shame goldbugs had to ruin these Gurus' perfect investment records. LGB listened to people like us and lost money back in the '70's when he was young and impressionable. Karl Marx, I mean Karlito made his only mistake in 30 years by listening to Puetz. What are the odds that they will make another mistake? The world will reach a permanently high plateau like the market in '29.

Final thought........

Some, but not all, Commercial Banks appear to have a combined negative liquidity and outstanding gold derivative payment. I wonder who?!

Aye, Haggis

Many perform many feats but who can lead the sheep to the studio's of music and time.All should buy Gold as professed by God Eagle .Amen .Goodnight

For Haggis

I would appreciate some info on the super pit.

You mentioned a 25 year life in a prior post - I had

assumed you were talking about KCGM -

I believe kcgm comprises the pit + Fimiston +

Mt Charlotte. The Mining Journal gives reserves

as 107.3 mill tons at 2.26 g/t ( makes about 12.5 mill

oz ) . It gives production at 856 mill oz to mid 1997.

I assume your 25 years life reference includes

"resources"- Have you got a reserve breakdown ?? I

would appreciate your posting it, if its not too

much trouble.

Another question - Normandy has a half interest

in KCGM but only takes about a third of their

production - do you know why that is??

Also - where does the rest of it's production go

and who owns the rest ??

These are probably silly questions - but the industry

has changed a lot since I was there ( I was looking for

GMK and had forgotten it had merged ) .

I Wonder If the Devil lives for the Golden Age and GoldenEagle avouches that new age?

Haggis, what type of geological setting was that wonderful rock with
those native nuggets found in? Alluvial reconsolidated? Reef? or maybe
Breccia Pipe? and is that one of your properties you'r not telling anyone
about, that is until Gold makes it's long awaited move?

It was indeed hard to keep up with the numerous well informed positions
on the inflation/Deflation scenerios, all great stuff! It would have been a bit easier on my poor old tired eyes if LGB 99 or whatever number he is now, could be a little more considerate, perhaps not as repetitious and
a little more to the point, once! after all I truly am convinced that most
all Kitcoites can walk and chew gum at the same time.:+ )

As I had previously posted I believe that this"Asia" crisis is not Asian at
all, but is Global, involving Int'l Banks, Multinationals etc.. and was in
part caused by the race to capture and open markets making loans which cannot be paid off, because the China factor caused a
production overcapacity, this is nothing short of a severe global damage that has been done to the world trading system, and as it bounces around the globe, said countries attempt to get out this crisis by exporting, hence the other world economies including US will loose jobs in the next year or so,and causing in unpredictable random ways other losses, but more importantly as experts and authorities are surprised by said events, as they have been,there is a psychological threshold in that anxiety necessarily deepens as crisis worsens, and peoples say I'd better not invest, I'll put my money in matress, I should not get or give that loan, which is exactly where Japan is and has been for some time, because people get scared.
Thus the Dynamics of Global competition drives all multinationals
to expand, into new markets ( China ) , to reform their production processes
make them more cost effecient and faster, cheaper goods etc....
and wind up despite closing major factories tec...with global overcapacity.
But IMHO it would take a series of errors by AG et al to allow
the present condition to turn into Classic Deflation and that is why we should be nervous, because Gov Authorities world wide are following
neo classical orthodoxy that says focus on the financial indicators getting them balanced, stabalized, and all else is OK. So when THEY see more
"fragility" they will then focus on real world growth ,real players and
consumers, wages etc...Inflation is the only way out of this "crisis"
Gold has sniffed this out and will gradually begin to move up in anticipation of said Inflation, throughout 1988.
But as I posted numerous times, IMHO the real big moves in Gold will come when the US$ is challenged as the sole reserve currency, by the Euro, and the Huang/Yen, Oil.

Ten percent of the profit generated by the newsletter can be used to make homeless goldbugs usefull members of society, while lifetime subscriptions will be provided to those subscribers who against all odds convert highly motivated bugs.

Studio-When I was Young And Touched the music of God I stayed for 40 years .Music is my Soul and if you feel the truth "Let it Ride"Amen Finally Goodnight.

Could I please have banana pudding for dessert instead of truffles? Would someone please call me to see if I'm home? Thanks.

http://avidtrader.com/chat/atc_imag/i_idea.gif>http://avidtrader.com/chat/atc_imag/i_idea.gif>http://avidtrader.com/chat/atc_imag/i_idea.gif
http://avidtrader.com/chat/atc_imag/i_idea.gif
http://avidtrader.com/chat/atc_imag/i_idea.gif

The wall is missing a brick and Pink is the color that Floyd should have worn. Let them have your soul and still no bullets after 15 years...they just don't understand...they said we don't need no education.

For what it's worth I believe someone posted here a few days ago
thart German Banks had the most exposure in Asia, obviously Japan
would be right in there, but you know when they are playing THE
Paper Game shuffling paper from one institution to another and back, and changing the rules anytime they wish it is indeed difficult
to keep track of all that PAPER!
Enough to say the "Game" is at, when are THEY ALL going to inflate
to "create" demand for most of current world overproduction.

Where is 1998. Oh my goodness, I've lost 1998. Where's the New Year.

To all -some anecdotal extracts from MJ that you may

find of interest.

1. "Through .. mergers and acquisitions,

HARMONY has increases its ore reserves from 20 ... to

almost 70 million in two years ( 13.1 of which is in the

proven and probable category ) "

2. RANDFONTEIN ... "is looking to add reserves from

other areas CONTIGUOUS to its existing properties"

3. AVGOLD's new Target and Sun fields should have

producton costs below $200/oz. They come on stream

in mid 1999 - full production 2002.

4 DURBAN DEEP .... "has acquired mineral rights to the

south of Johannesburg which could form the basis of a

new, deep level mine"

It's not this easy everywhere .....

1. AMAX - at refugio in chile - "exceptional winter

weather suspended crushing operations for THREE MONTHS.

This caused costs to soar and dented production"

2 NEWCREST - "plans for expansion at Telfer have been

scrapped" - telfer started operations in 1997 with

production at 365,000 oz and costs of 387A$/oz. But

productions fell sharply due ... lower than expected

oxide grades and dump leach recoveries .. production

fell to 338,000 amd costs rose to 464A$/oz"

Morning All!

Hope you had a great time with family and friends last night! Have just had a quick scroll through yesterday's postings and the spirit was as it should be- a reaching out to all with generosity & good feelings.

Saw a lot about George Soros.

Now, I freely admit to having only a few months on this site and being in Grade 0 ,-even Pre 0, so to speak. I need you ALL to please help me.

It seems to be accepted that Soros is a financial genius.
OR-has he just been lucky?

I have just received a book written by Soros in '87-revised '94, called 'Alchemy of Finance", where he speaks of his [?] 'Theory of Reflexivity'.
Having read only a small part of his book [ which book, JTF,NICK, MIKE SHELLER- I received out of the blue only a couple of days before my joke to you re Soros on e-mail!] -I rather think he is a THINKING man, with a jolly good mind.

Can any of you chaps on Kitco tell me MORE about Soros the MAN, please?

I also hope you can refer me to more books [if any] written by him.

Regards & thanks.

Posted on Nick's behalf- wishing you all a "Happy New Year"!
Sorry it's a bit late! We MISS you, Sharefin! Best regards.

"Sharefin is itching to get back to reality,
Within Kitco's hallowed grounds.
He can't wait to draw discourse,
From the the brilliant minds that abound.

He sits and watches patiently,
While Bart repairs the fault.
Gladly reading Kitco daily,
From his friends who forward it so prompt.

His only sadness,
That pervades him from day to day.
Is that he can't respond to LGB,
And join in the fracus display.

Soon after Bart has repaired,
His service to all true goldbugs.
After the new year's cheer is over,
Sharefin will be back amongst the club.

Yahoooo!!!! and best wishes"
``````````````````````````````````````````````````````
Also one of John Laird's great poems with which to start off your 1998 'List'```

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
WHAT MAN AMONG YOU

Two men in every man I see
And all of us half knowing
Which of these men we be

Who choose the better way
They overcome
the burden of their day

Or wrong the choice
Condemn ourselves
To the bitterness of remorse


Before the naval battle of Salamis in September 480 B.C. Themistocles thus
persuaded the Greek captains who were undecided to engage the immensely
superior Persian fleet.
'In every man there are two men, one base, one noble; and we shape our
lives as we choose between them. The easy way is cheap but the man so
defeated pays for his choice as long as he lives; while that man who
chooses to be brave, and risk the prize of the good life, will die with
glory, or live in honour, and this is our choice today.'
The Greek captains chose the better way and though outnumbered more than
ten to one destroyed the Persian navy.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

G'day,

Think of the year 2000. How do we access 0 to 6am Eastern?! Now, I wish to engender the spirit of challange - but after a New Years lunch!! Aye, its like trying to taunt a religious fanatic!!!

Who has got the Rangers vs Celtic result!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Aye, Haggis

G'Day,

"Two men in every man I see...................."

Lassie, What are you thinking off.

Gid New Year.

Aye, Haggis

It's really my Venus in Gemini ! Which is why I appreciate GREAT minds- and I suppose the collection of a few husbands or so in my early youth!

{;+}}

And LOTS of jewellery and clothes, plus a diversity of assets, also diverse talents [ I even took a welding course at Afrox once long ago!?].....any more Mike S??!!

The date read october 1,1997 - on my kitco screen - is this a

foretaste of things to come. What day is it ? what town is this?

Hello John Disney!

If BART says it's 1st October, then it must be so! Quite disconcerting though! I sent a birthday greeting to someone yesterday, and his birthday is definitely the 31st December!!??

Hope you had good festivities 'down there', and wish I knew enough to participate in those interesting looking charts you were handing out!!

Off to Monty Roberts's site to learn how to listen to horses!! Another diversity, Haggis!

Reminder to All here at the moment- SOROS details, pretty please?? Thank you!

Mornin all----you too Disney!...Weather is frigid ( 14 ( F ) with 20-30 MPH winds,snow flurries and with a HANGOVER the deck job don't look too inviting but if I sit here for a while and chug some more coffee I'll be able ta go out and pound a few more--nails that is...

But I will NOT be living on mainland U.S.of A as our property is eight miles out ta sea on an island....The mainland would be a little too close for comfort...

FINAL PART -

About the Author: In 1965 Joseph Miller became a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He was active in the exchange during the time Currency Futures and Interest Rate Futures were introduced by the Exchange, and served on the Board of Governors of the Exchange for ten years.

Much has been made of the downward plunge in gold prices during 1996 and 1997. Monetary officials as well as government officials around the world have advertised the fact and led the public at large to believe that this drop is an indication that fiat megabyte money is "King of the Hill", that all is well with our monetary system, and that we will all live happily ever after. It is the author's hope that THIS PAPER HAS DISPELLED THIS MYTH in the mind's of the people who read it.

Analyst Miller sees regent years IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE in paper assets ( stocks & bonds ) as a new chapter for the classic work Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. He, like George Bernard Shaw, votes for GOLD:

"If you have to choose between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability and intelligence of the members of the government. And with due respect to these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold."

The Summary includes an extensive SUGGESTED READING LIST, his recommended Internet Gold Links, and other pertinent information sources:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/jmiller123197.html

I think I can help. Soros has written two books that I know of. The other is more an autobiography called Soros on Soros ( Staying ahead of the curve ) . Costs about R120. It would probably be better to read that first to get the background even though it was published after The Alchemy of Finance. Personally I think Soros is a true master. Many on this site feel otherwise and I have seen fantastic conspiracy theories emerge about him. I doubt these people have bothered to read his books. Happy reading.

Happy New Year! It is almost the 2nd of January already here!
See Colin Seymour's site about Soro's latest news item. ( Link at bottom
of this post ) . He wants to set up a sister organisation to the IMF to
create a worldwide Credit Insurance outfit to protect against credit
default by sovereign nations!! Shades of one world Govt!

BREAKING STORIES:

Jakarta rocked by "junk bond" rating
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980102/pageone/pageone6.html

It looks like a boom year for going bust
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980102/news/news7.html

Bracing for year of the sluggish tiger
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980102/world/world2.html

IN REVIEW:

Korean currency plunges as debt blows out to $241bn
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971231/pageone/pageone5.html

Korean currency down 18% as banks bail Seoul
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971231/market/markets1.html

High Hopes - Arafat sets new pullout targets
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971231/world/world4.html

Aussie Goldminers facing big writedowns
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971231/business/business4.html

Getting burned by your Company Share Scheme
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971231/news/news1.html

Financiers brace for fresh crisis over Korea
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971230/world/world2.html

After 15 years the bulls are looking for a break
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971230/invest/ivsuper.html

Big Americans take shine to Australian gold
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971229/invest/invest2.html

Cashed-up firms swoop on Asia
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971229/world/world1.html

Reproducing the 1930s
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971227/world/world1.html

Japanese Banks not out of the woods
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19971226233505010?=biz&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=3318

Nikkei still dogged by bankruptcy worries
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19971226233505068?=rel&template=related.htx&maxfieldsize=1307?evID=19971226233505010//?evTop=biz//?evTemp=Default.htx//?evMFS=3318//

How Alan Greenspan saved the world
http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/margolis.html

A CHAT WITH THE IMF'S CAMDESSUS
( See, nothing to worry about! Or is there? )
http://www.businessweek.com/1997/52/b3559175.htm

De Beers wants Argyle in cartel
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971224/world/world4.html

Mid Level Officials lobbying for Chinese Devaluation!
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971219/world/wwashington.html

NZ voters are wary of M.A.I. free-trade treaty
http://www.brw.com.au/brw15.htm

ASIA'S NEXT CASUALTY? Bad banks could clobber China
http://www.businessweek.com/1997/50/b3557097.htm

BOOKMARK Steves News Page:
( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/blizard.htm

Borrowing our way to prosperity!!!

Total Debt Issued Sets Record, More Than $1 Trillion in '97

By CRAIG KARMIN
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

NEW YORK -- Debt issuance in 1997 topped the $1 trillion mark for the first time, according to figures from Securities Data Co.

Total U.S. public debt -- which includes non-convertible, convertible, mortgage-backed, asset-backed, and taxable municipals -- came to
$1.15 trillion. With Rule 144a debt included, the total came to $1.35 trillion.

The year's proceeds easily surpassed the previous record of $924 billion in total public debt issued in 1993. Securities Data did not include Rule 144a deals in that year's total.

Analysts and investors said that the record total reflected unique market conditions, which for much of 1997 were virtually ideal for debt issuance.

"Anyway you look at it, it was an attractive environment," said Michael Leit, a senior vice-president for corporate bond research at Prudential Securities Inc. "Spreads were at very tight levels, rates were attractive and companies were looking to take advantage of this."

Even so, others noted that the Asian crisis -- which pressured corporate spreads and caused issuance in the last two months of the year to slow considerably -- prevented the total from being higher still.

"My sense is that a lot of issuance planned for the fourth quarter was pushed back," said Brett Chappell, a portfolio manager at New York Life Asset Management. As a result, he added, "the calendar in January should be extremely heavy."

But if investors expect a busy start to 1998, they are less certain whether that momentum can be sustained for the entire year -- particularly if Asia's financial woes intensify.

"I think it's way too early to make any conclusions about Asia or what will happen next year in terms of new debt," said Sam Paddison, a senior vice president of capital management at First Union.

As in previous years, Merrill Lynch & Co., the largest brokerage firm in the U.S., led all other underwriters in most categories, including total debt, agencies, investment-grade bonds, asset-backed securities, Yankee and Eurobonds.

Indicative of this year's record total for the industry, Merrill's $202 billion in proceeds for total debt was up from $143 billion in 1996.

Salomon Smith Barney was second with $168 billion in 1997, though the newly merged firm was unable to close the gap behind Merrill Lynch, which it trailed by a similar proportion in 1996. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, the product of another mega-merger, was third with $144 billion in proceeds.

However, Salomon Smith Barney did recapture the top slot in the mortgage-backed category with $31 billion in proceeds. Lehman Brothers, which led the field in 1996, was second with $29 billion.

In high-yield, Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Corp. again took top honors with $12.579 billion in proceeds. That edged out Merrill's $12.241 billion, though both firms roughly doubled their 1996 category totals.

The category with the largest percentage increase was the Yankee arena, where Merrill led the pack with $45 billion in proceeds. That compares to the firm's $20 billion in 1996. Overall, Yankee issuance stood at
$208 billion in 1997, up from $116 billion in 1996.

Elsewhere, investment-grade proceeds stood at $541 billion in 1997, up from 1996's total of $374 billion, while asset-backed totals climbed to $207 billion from $166 billion in 1996.

However, Eurobond proceeds were essentially unchanged from 1996. This year's total of $544 billion was up less than $4 billion from the previous year's totals.

Hello Colleen - no rain here by gum - been cleaning the pool - had

a brief swim - we celebrated new year with our three dogs ( ridgeback

scared by fireworks ) . Really quiet day today .

Hi ted

Hi Haggis - I figured out that Homestake takes the other half of

KCGM ( Kalgoorlie Consolidated ) - but I would appreciate any info you

have on reserves.

Hi salty

S. Korea Avoids Default but Worries Linger
5.40 p.m. ET ( 2240 GMT ) December 31, 1997

By Bill Tarrant, SEOUL, South Korea  South Korea limped into the last day of the year having staved off a looming debt catastrophe, thanks to fresh funds from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) and support from international bankers.

But while the last-minute support has taken the noose of a potential debt default from Korea's financial neck, some analysts say it may be just a stay of execution.

The IMF, accelerating its schedule of payments to the troubled country under an economic assistance program, handed over an additional $2 billion on Tuesday to help ease a painful credit crunch.

Commercial and investment banks also pledged on Tuesday to roll over billions of dollars of short-term debt, giving Korean banks an extra month to pay.

"The 11th hour decision ( by the IMF ) has given all parties to the debt crisis there a two-week period in which to consider various alternatives to outright debt default," said Dave Carbon, market strategist with Pacific Asset Management in Singapore.

"Unless creditors roll over their loans something they've had little mind to do Korea has two choices: effectively default on its international loans or watch the currency spurt to 3,000 ( to the dollar ) . Neither is very attractive," he said.

All eyes remain on the won which skidded to 1,695 to the dollar at the close of Wednesday's trading against 1,590 on Tuesday. The won lost 50 percent of its value against the dollar in 1997.

The won's plunge against the dollar caused consumer prices to surge 6.6 percent year-on-year in December against 4.3 percent in November with oil product prices accounting for most of the rise, the Finance Ministry said on Wednesday.

Producer prices rocketed 10.9 percent year-on-year in December against 2.9 percent in November.

Dealers said demand for dollars was high as banks and companies scrambled to repay some $4.5-$5.0 billion in principal and interest payments falling due on the last day of 1997.

A staggering amount of overseas loans falls due in the next few months, which means demand for dollars will not abate soon. The Finance Ministry said this week foreign debt as of December 20 was $153 billion, with 80.2 billion of that short-term, coming due in less than a year.

The debt figures do not include an estimated $50-$60 billion owed by the overseas branches and subsidiaries of Korean enterprises.

Major banks, under persistent prodding from Washington and the IMF, in meetings at various capitals around the world have said they would roll over Korea's short-term debt.

HSBC Holdings Plc said on Wednesday it had rolled over its short-term debt to Korean borrowers for another month.

On Monday, five Wall Street investment firms agreed "in principle...to participate in the program of support for Korea," while 13 U.S. and foreign banks simply "reported the positive reaction of the financial institutions in their countries to support efforts to alleviate Korea's short-term liquidity concerns."

Exactly how this would be done remained largely unanswered going into the new year, partly because global lenders are still adding up Korea's foreign exposure, analysts said.

Some analysts believe bankers may be seeking a Korean central bank guarantee for rolling over debts. The Finance Ministry said $14-$15 billion in short-term debt was due in December and an equal amount in January.

Pacific Asset's Carbon said Korea will have to pay dearly for those rollovers.

"All sides caution that rollovers will be undertaken on a case-by-case basis  a code phrase meaning that no broad program is, as yet, on the cards," Carbon said.

"Until a G2 government-backed program does exist  basically some variant of a Brady plan  banks will roll over loans only if they are paid to do so, which means credit spreads are probably set to widen further still."

He said he expected credit spreads for Korea to widen to at least 1,000 basis points over the London Interbank Offered Rate.

The key is restoring market confidence in Korea, officials and analysts say.

U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said on Tuesday the IMF money, together with promises of aid from rich industrialized states and commercial banks, should restore confidence and propel South Korea back to economic growth.

The IMF's $2 billion, originally due to have been paid some time next year, is part of a record-breaking $60 billion international rescue package which will include $21 billion from the IMF  the biggest loan the IMF has ever issued.

The World Bank pitched in $3 billion last week and country donors in the bailout program have promised $8 billion by January 8.

Including earlier IMF disbursements this month, South Korea will by then have received $26 billion of the $60 billion of IMF money to be disbursed over the three-year period of the program.

In exchange for the aid, South Korea has flung open its financial markets, lifting almost all restrictions on foreign investment in the stock and bond markets, allowing the won currency to float and significantly easing capital controls.

where is jan 98????????????

was setting up and didnt see anything but 12/31/97. thanx

for Chas -

We have decided to skip 1998 because it equals 3 times 666. So -

what we're gonna do is go back to october 1 of the prior year 4

times and then go to directly to 1999 - I know it sounds a little

silly but we ARE dealing here with the ANTICHRIST after all - We

gotta take MEASURES.

About the Author: In 1965 Joseph Miller became a member of the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He was active in the exchange during the time Currency Futures and Interest Rate Futures were introduced by the Exchange, and served on the Board of Governors of the Exchange for ten years.

Much has been made of the downward plunge in gold prices during 1996 and 1997. Monetary officials as well as government officials around the world have advertised the fact and led the public at large to believe that this drop is an indication that fiat
megabyte money is "King of the Hill", that all is well with our
monetary system, and that we will all live happily ever after. It is the author's hope that THIS PAPER HAS DISPELLED THIS MYTH in the mind's of the people who read it.

Analyst Miller sees regent years IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE in paper assets ( stocks & bonds ) as a new chapter for the classic work Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. He, like George Bernard Shaw, votes for GOLD:

"If you have to choose between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability and intelligence of the members of the government. And with due respect to these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold."

The Summary includes an extensive SUGGESTED READING LIST, his recommended Internet Gold Links, and other pertinent information sources:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/jmiller123197.html

Find Bart... Fix Kitco...SOS may day

RUSSIA CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE "ARGENTINA"
FORMULA TO WHIP INFLATION.

Privatize state owned businesses and lop
off zeroes.

NOW, lets see: If you had been a Russian
goldbug for the past few years, you
made out like a bandit relative to others
who stuck with the rubble.

Happy New
Ruble

The Year is Now
1.998

MOSCOW -- Russia
will lop three zeros off
the ruble on Jan. 1,
promising to make the
inflation-battered
currency easier to
handle.

Here are some details
on the redenomination
process:

Why the new money?

President Boris Yeltsin
and top officials say
Russia has finally won
its battle with inflation,
which ravaged the ruble
after communist-era
prices were freed in
1992 but which is
expected to be a
relatively modest 11 or
12 percent in 1997.

The ruble has
plummeted to about
one-10,000th of its
value during the Soviet
Union. It is now quoted
at 5,974 rubles to the
dollar. The
redenomination will
change that to about six
rubles per dollar.

The redenomination is
intended to show
Russia's economy is on
track for growth. The
new reforms should
make transactions and
accounting simpler and
lead to a rebirth of the
kopeck coin, a victim of
hyperinflation.

Where the money will
come from?

The central bank has
distributed new rubles
to regional banking
centers across Russia.

Automatic teller
machines are allowed to
issue the money from
the stroke of midnight
on Jan. 1. Currency
exchange offices may
also start releasing the
money on New Year's
Day.

Some major cities may
not see the new money
until Jan. 5 or 6 after
the long New Year
holiday, and it may take
a while longer for the
money to arrive to
remote villages.

What will happen to the
old money?

Older Russian rubles --
in denominations from
100 to 500,000 -- will
gradually be withdrawn
in 1998, and the central
bank says the overall
supply of money in
circulation will be the
same.

First Deputy Central
Bank Chairman Sergei
Aleksashenko says
128.7 trillion old rubles
will have to be
destroyed in 1998.

Russian stores must
post two sets of prices
throughout 1998 and
must accept both new
and old rubles during
that time. After 1998
citizens will still be able
to exchange old rubles
at some banks.

Will the move prompt
higher inflation?

Government officials
say inflation will not
increase as the money
supply will stay the
same. But many
citizens fear that
retailers will use the
redenomination as an
excuse to round up
prices to the nearest
ruble.

What about Chechnya?

The breakaway
republic considers itself
independent of Moscow
and has been talking
for some time about
introducing its own
currency. It has not
received any new
money so far.

How does the current
currency reform differ
from previous such
reforms?

In 1993 the Russian
government gave
citizens only a few days
to dispose of their
Soviet-era rubles,
leading to panic in
banks and spending
sprees in stores. A
move to abolish 50 and
100 ruble notes in 1991
had a similar effect.

This time around,
government officials
have announced the
reform months in
advance. They have
repeatedly attempted to
calm citizens' fears,
telling them they will
not lose out as they did
in monetary reforms in
1947 under dictator
Joseph Stalin and in
1961 under his
successor Nikita
Khrushchev.

Russia Today, Dec. 31,
1997

Noticed over the past couple of days,even with the gold and silver
price dropping off slightly, shares in the mining co that I have, increased
in value. This isn't the norm for these shares, as they generally follow
the gl/sl price quite closely. There also hasn't been any news out
recently that would cause this to happen. Surely one of you experts
out there can give me an answer."Big Boys" setting up positions for
an oncoming rally?
THANKS.

The fine line has been erased...since the offices of Bart and Assoc. are closed I shall consume bandwith until decoupled. Where's the hook?

My theme song for GOLD this year, as written by Pat Guthrie Payne and Ronald David James, copyright 1996, 1997.

"Time to Fly"

Yeah, he comes from a tribe
Where a man's taught to hide
His feelings deep inside
But he learned, a long time ago
Though it pains him so
You gotta' look 'em in the eye

Tell 'em straight what's on your mind
Don't back down...don't waste no time
Because the waiting is over
And the time has come to fly....

Just how much chance does one man get
Before it gets too late to try?
Hell, the waiting costs, self respect's done lost
And the price of pride's too high

You better tell 'em straight what's on your mind
Don't cow down, don't tow no line
Because the waiting's done over
And the time has come to fly

Yeah, you know it's time to spread your wings
And to say goodbye
To all those things that hold you down
And make you wonder why....

You don't tell it straight what's on your mind
Don't back down...Don't waste no time
Yeah the thinking is over..
Then chance may pass you by....

And the wonderin' is over
Now look to the sky...
'cause the waiting is over
And the time has come to fly.


( May we and gold, both, fly high this year )
( Someone spiked my Cubalibras last night, I'd like to get Eb's hands on them...I'm hurtin' for certain. )

Ted, you survived 1997, even in that frigid air up there. I started the year by counting my gold and silver bars and then towing my deceased car into the dealer this morning. We just paid $230 for this a couple of days ago and the same problem has returned to roost. Gold and silver I can sometimes understand. A car; now that is a different story. There is something to be said for a horse. Oats in, fertilizer out. Kind of a simple system.

Flight Capital Fuels 15-Year-Old Bull Market

Although Rick Ackermans article was published in a major US newspaper a couple of weeks old, it nevertheless provides some interesting insights to the US market and world problems, which undoubtedly will have an impact in 1998.

With Asia's financial markets festering seemingly beyond remedy, Japan mired in near-depression, and the locomotive economy of South Korea in danger of seizing, why has Wall Street barely flinched?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/ackerman123197.html

Bart posted a note yesterday indicating the office was closed until Monday and everything was on autopilot until then...

A prosperous new year to all!

I'm no expert, but it occurs to me that to use a Jimmy Rogers term, the PM markets have been "jiggled".

Happy New Year to all! It's now time to look at the past ( review 1997 ) , see what went right, and what went wrong. Then, I'll examine the present. And finally, make my Predictions for 1998.

"Clinton Wins on Budget, But More Lies Ahead" ( :- ) )

Am posting this again, because I am not sure where my last post went!!
Talk about shades of Dr Who!!

BREAKING STORIES:

Jakarta rocked by "junk bond" rating
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980102/pageone/pageone6.html

It looks like a boom year for going bust
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980102/news/news7.html

Bracing for year of the sluggish tiger
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980102/world/world2.html

IN REVIEW:

Korean currency plunges as debt blows out to $241bn
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971231/pageone/pageone5.html

Korean currency down 18% as banks bail Seoul
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971231/market/markets1.html

High Hopes - Arafat sets new pullout targets
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971231/world/world4.html

Aussie Goldminers facing big writedowns
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971231/business/business4.html

Getting burned by your Company Share Scheme
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971231/news/news1.html

Financiers brace for fresh crisis over Korea
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971230/world/world2.html

After 15 years the bulls are looking for a break
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971230/invest/ivsuper.html

Big Americans take shine to Australian gold
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971229/invest/invest2.html

Cashed-up firms swoop on Asia
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971229/world/world1.html

Reproducing the 1930s
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971227/world/world1.html

Japanese Banks not out of the woods
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19971226233505010?=biz&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=3318

Nikkei still dogged by bankruptcy worries
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19971226233505068?=rel&template=related.htx&maxfieldsize=1307?evID=19971226233505010//?evTop=biz//?evTemp=Default.htx//?evMFS=3318//

How Alan Greenspan saved the world
http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/margolis.html

A CHAT WITH THE IMF'S CAMDESSUS
( See, nothing to worry about! Or is there? )
http://www.businessweek.com/1997/52/b3559175.htm

De Beers wants Argyle in cartel
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971224/world/world4.html

Mid Level Officials lobbying for Chinese Devaluation!
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971219/world/wwashington.html

NZ voters are wary of M.A.I. free-trade treaty
http://www.brw.com.au/brw15.htm

ASIA'S NEXT CASUALTY? Bad banks could clobber China
http://www.businessweek.com/1997/50/b3557097.htm

BOOKMARK Steves News Page:
( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/blizard.htm

Mike Sheller kicks off the New Year with both a warning list of potential hotspots around the world, as well as his campy tribute to magazine horoscopes ( HEY, check out what the stars hold for YOU in 1998 ) . However, the serious business comes first, as he takes a look at some national horoscopes ( from Cambodia to the USA ) for some clues to future activities, which may affect the financial markets:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/astro123197.html

1997 review:

1 ) Just a couple of day before 1997 ended, silver close at its highest level in nearly 10 years. Silver was the bright spot in my predictions.

2 ) Just a few weeks before silver made its high for the decade, gold sank to its lowest level in about 12 years. Gold usually moves in tandem with silver. However, 1997 was an exception. I have been prematurely bullish on gold.

3 ) Stock markets crashed in Asia during 1997. I hit the nail on the head with that.

4 ) Stock markets did not crash in the U.S. and Europe. This was my biggest miss for the year.

5 ) The jury is still out on DEFLATION. While I have been predicting a violent deflation, that has not happened. However, as 1997 ended, deflationary forces were so powerful, that a growing number of mainstream economists were seriously worried about the possibility. The CRB Commodity Index ended 1997 at 229 -- a 4 year low. CNBC analysts, Wall Street economists, and even socialist George Soros, all talked about the growing deflationary threat. So in summary, while a deflation may have started, it hasn't become violent yet. I can't say that I've been either right or wrong on this prediction.

In total: I had 2 correct predictions, 2 wrong predictions, and 1 undecided. That's 50%. For me, it's been a dissapointing year. I would hope to be at least 70% correct on my predictions. Nonetheless, I will continue with an analysis of present conditions and finally make my 1998 Predictions.

I sent you email and have heard no response. Will not continue digging unless we communicate. Thanks

"The evidence of the past two decades suggest that the old boom-and-bust economic cycles no longer exist." If it's in the newspaper, it must be true! For the entire story, go to... http://www.nypostonline.com/business/845.htm

Present Condition # 1: The global credit-markets teeter on the verge of collapse. A total melt-down in Asia was prevented by emergency loans granted by world lending organizations -- usually through the influence and approval of the United States government. However, this strategy has only delayed the inevitable day-of-reckoning. In the process, Uncle Sam has taken on more credit-risk.

The day is rapidly approaching when the credit of the US Treasury, itself, comes under severe scrutiny. Already, the US Treasury has assumed risk in South American loans, now Asian loans, mortgage loans in the US, student loans in the US, future bank losses through the FDIC, unfunded liabilities in the Social Security system, debt from past federal deficits, debt from future federal deficits, and so on....

Uncle Sam is essentialy bankrupt in a big way. It's only a matter of when the credit-markets recognize this fact.

Present Condition # 2: Bankruptcies continue to rise in both the US and around the world. This is a clear-cut sign that global economies are far too indebted.

Present Condition # 3: The US stock market remains extremely over-priced and over-leveraged. Speculators have recently positioned themselves for the usual big New Year Rally. Especially, during the last few days of December, speculators were heavily buying stock in the US and Europe to beat the rush to buy stocks on January 2nd -- when the markets reopen. However, these visions may be a dream. First, mutual-fund investors have become increasing nervous about the stock market since October 27th -- outflows reached $9 billion a week ago. Second, foreign central banks have been dumping their vast holdings of US Treasury securities. If these 2 new trends persist, a New Year rally will probably never materialize.

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/980101/news/stories/mexico_1.html

Present Condition # 4: The global economic scene is deteriorating rapidly. Only in the United States, is the economy half-way stable. But even in the US, massive borrowing from overseas ( earlier in the year via foreign central banks, later in the year mostly through the Eurodollar markets ) has been required to keep our economy afloat. Indeed, it's a ticking-time-bomb anytime a country relies on foreign borrowing to sustain its economy and markets.

Commodities


The Forbes 50th Annual Report on American Industry

Dead-cat bounce?

By John Brimelow

THE YEAR 1997 was ghastly for gold bugs: Large central
bank sales, rumors of larger sales and even of German and
Swiss intentions to "mobilize"-that is, to sell or lend out their
gold reserves-have sent the gold price reeling down 25% this
year.

At a recent $281.40, gold is at a 17-year low. Damage to gold
share prices far exceeds that done by the bear market of 1992.
The Bre-X fiasco, along with other scandals, demoralized
investors and combined with tax-loss selling of unprecedented
savagery to devastate gold stocks.

But even dead cats bounce-sometimes quite a lot. A significant
gold price rally is probable early in 1998. Gold shares are so
beaten down that any such price move could cause a
multiplication in many equity values.

Gold market professionals agree that overshadowing the
various species of short-sellers, mine-hedgers and lesser
central bank disposals, there has been a truly immense seller.
This seller has brutally crushed several promising rallies,
nullifying usually dependable technical indicators and
enormously encouraging major short-sellers, who are now
confident that they can easily cover their positions. The culprit
is widely suspected to be the Dutch central bank, perhaps with
accomplices.

What's the Dutch game? A good guess is that the Netherlands
Central Bank fears that the European Central Bank coming
onstage in 1998 will ban the conversion of gold into
income-producing assets. The Dutch supposedly want to beat
the deadline, expected to be very early in the year.

At any rate, European bank-related selling in 1997 might well
have approached 1,000 tons. Outside the ECB zone, only the
U.S. and Switzerland have this much gold in reserve-and for
constitutional reasons the Swiss cannot sell before 2000, if
then. To duplicate the 1997 debacle, an implausibly long line of
lesser central banks would have to sell most of their reserves in
1998.

Research by my friend and client Frank Veneroso, of
Portsmouth, N.H.-based Veneroso Associates, underlines the
improbability of such continued selling pressure. Veneroso
believes that central bank lending of gold already exceeds
8,000 tons-25% of all central bank holdings. He thinks
virtually all of this gold has been absorbed into jewelry and is
therefore not now available to repay these loans. Central Bank
mobilization has gone much further, faster, than widely
realized. As understanding of this spreads, Central Bank
behavior is likely to become more measured.

Fearing diminished selling, professional gold bears are alleging
that Asian demand for gold is collapsing because of the
currency crisis. Actually, the main Asian buyers, China and
India, are not affected. China has not devalued and is reflating.
A slight Indian devaluation is more than offset by the recent
abolition of gold import barriers. And Japan's banking crisis
has triggered strong gold-buying by the public-which I think is
likely in the aggregate to offset Southeast Asian weakness.

Recent data, in fact, indicate physical gold demand in the East
and even in America is surging. Quite predictable since gold is
at a 25-year low in real terms.

There are some massive hedge fund shorts out there. They will
no doubt defend their gains before year-end. But the logic of
the situation is that they-and gold mines not wanting to see their
hedging profits disappear-must buy back aggressively as the
cessation of exceptional selling lets the gold price lift. A return
to a modest $350 level would produce dramatic share-price
gains.

I especially like South Africa's Durban Deep ( Nasdaq,
DROOY ) and Randgold ( Nasdaq, RANGY ) ; North America's
explorer Golden Star ( Amex, GSR ) , junior producers TVX
( Amex, TVX ) and Royal Oak ( Amex, RYO ) , and large-cap
Homestake ( NYSE, HM ) .

Tax-loss selling in gold and gold shares will be considerable
this year, but by the time you read this, that selling will be
nearly over. A good bounce looks extremely likely.

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Once tax-loss selling is behind us, a significant gold price rally is probable early next
year.

Happy new year to all my Kitco friends.

Vronsky - love your site. Thank You

Reify - Thank you for the jokes, sure enjoy them

DJ - Love those charts.

Puetz - 50% is OK, what do you see for 1998?

Arden - Looking forward to meeting you next month.

Strad Master - May you & your family have the best year ever.

Tolerant1 - I enjoy your posts you have a way with prose.

To all: I feel 1998 will be a year of major change. I think the bailout of the asian countrys will work for a while, but most of them will suffer recession or depression. Along with this will come changes in governments. The West can not escape this, I feel it will bring changes to our countrys. The good times are over. All the money printed by the U.S.A. and floated overseas will start to "come home to roost". Keep your eye on the bond markets.

God Bless you all in the coming year

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971230/table_bank_of_canad_1.html

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971231/business/stories/korea_6.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971231/japan_hashimoto_pict_2.html

I have $25.000.00 to invest in precious metal

it is going to be gold numismatics or bullion

or silver or platinum bullion...
What do you all feel are the best prospects?????

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971231/97_taught_us_treasur_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971230/saudi_stocks_1.html

Crystal Ball: The white flag is raised. Yep, looks like all the market pundits were right, the markets will continue to rise indefinitely. Paper will continue to raign supreme.
The FED and the IMF will fix all imaginable problems and crisis that may or may not develope.
After this unprecidented 7 year market boom, historical concepts no longer apply, and there is no way that these plumes will ever return to haunt the markets.
We are in the "New World Order".
Forget the 7000 year monetary record of Gold, our politicians, economists and market mavericks have slain the draggons, and redefined the new stores of wealth, PAPER and unlimitted credit.
Forget commodities, Junk Bonds are the place to be.
Who needs security, we fully trust the words of our politicians, and they always act for the good of the people. They will guarantee the value of our paper indefinitely.
Lets all load up on paper now, and watch the value of our investments continue to rise unabatted.
What a wonderfull utopian intersection we have arrived at.............

With all the turmoil in Asia, Russia seems to dropped off most radar screens. Apparently they are attempting to keep things going by living on short term debt.

A recent article, in the Washington Times Weekly, outlines the continuing problems the Russians have in collecting taxes and the obvious effect it is having on their ability to continue functioning. Reports are that they are covering the shortfall with the issuance of short term paper.

Beginning in October, they have had to bump the interest rate to 45%, in order to attract buyers. The word is that when they hit the wall, some $60 billion will be required to bandage their wounds. ....... and the beat goes on.

For the last week and a half there has been some scant episodes of discussion about a silver bottom coming and conjecture that it will have to test the $5.20 level before going on up. Any comments or advice at this point or guesstimation as to what will be its next bottom?

Buy VF ( very fine ) - XF ( extra fine ) common date $20 Liberty gold coins. They will go up when POG ( price of gold ) goes up because of the large bullion content ( approx one ounce ) , but they don't dip appreciably when POG goes down, because the US govt stopped making them long ago.

While the last-minute 1997 contentiousness between myself and LGB probably enhanced our disparate views on congeniality and analytical methodology, there is one area of agreement where we actually stand rather close together. In discussing America, or, for that matter, any free country striving to evolve a legitimate plan of justice and prosperity for its citizens, the question of individual freedom and responsibility to the whole must be dealt with. Freedom must, to avoid being bogus, entitle the individual to choose a path and articulate a pattern that may be quite different from, and even antagonize, the whole. Yet the very fact of "difference" does not necessarily mean "interference" with the aims of maximum liberty and prosperity for all. We have seen how all too often in history it is the maverick individual whose vision, unique and beyond that of the crowd, discovers something all have overlooked, or not understood, and brings a blessing upon his fellow man. Taking this a step further, it is also often the dissenter who, while incurring the wrath of the established powers of the day, or of the populace as a whole, attempts to point out where things have gone astray, and offers a way back to perceived sanity and good sense. Sometimes that dissent can become grating and a threat to the traditions, comfort, sensibilities, and condition of ignorance and denial that so often hold the general polulace in their sway. Invariably, when powerful dissent in national affairs is provoked, it is also a direct threat to those who are in temporary control of the nation's destiny. Given the power such usuallyt weild, the reaction can be repressive and brutal. But to be in control of a nation's destiny means to be in control of the people as well. And if a nation's constitution makes any kind of provision for individual liberty, which, I believe must always be accorded the status of a God-given natural right, then the individual has the right, and duty, to contend with the people, laws, and predicaments which bind and limit his course of action.

LGB brings up a valid point when he contends that the individual "owes" something to his or her country. That to act without a sense of responsibility to the nation in whose society one was formed, educated, and brought to the present state of consciousness, is in some way reprehensible. To evaluate the worthiness of a nation of patriotism is a very subjective task.

A citizen possessed of Fascist or Collectivist instincts might find Nazi Germany, or Soviet Russia, quite deserving of their support and pride. A person with a prediliction for individual freedom, protection of a maximum menu of agreed upon human rights, and a desire to continue the process of "perfecting" the art and sacred trust of "government" might certainly prefer to bestow their allegiance and feelings of patriotism somewhere else. Perhaps the point is that we are all, in life, always called upon to make choices. Often it is better not to act at all, but more often than not we must, and our destinies are always influenced and determined by the choices we do make, both individually and as a collective. The laws of Cause and Effect "will not be conned." To cavalierly say we owe no country anything is to say that either our image of what a nation should be is so metaphysically complete, ideal, and perfect, that NO nation could hope to reflect it, or that we put our own isolated self and its satisfaction above responsibility to any other outside factor of humanity and environment. While in a sense, in Man, the entire universe resides within, in this universe we are never alone.

In the end, if we agree that for the rational man, imperfect at this stage of cosmic unfoldment as it may be, there is a balance somewhere in between, then we all do indeed "owe" something to our country. What we "owe" to our country is what we owe to God, and to the highest in ourselves. We owe a sense of fellowship that makes human progress, in the concrete and the abstract, a high life priority. We owe a sense of cooperation and contribution, where a portion of our God given intelligence and energies are utilized for doing that which seems right to do. We also owe our fellow man the benefit of our considered and heartfelt opinion, our criticism and dissent if need be, so long as it is constructive and points the way to a more realized ideal. For in the end "our country" is not merely a body of mortals in a statehouse or capitol somewhere, or a fragmented identity of ethnic and political factions. For those whose view of "country" is described thus, perhaps they do not owe their country much. For there is not, on the face of it, much to owe to. But for those whose view of "country" is the ideals for all humanity that make the most sense, that strive as closely to the perfection of social thought and philosophy as possible, even from among poor choices, then "country" means a great deal. And at some time or other, we will be called to make a choice as to what we must, or must not do, in light of these ideals, for our country. Our country is an abstraction, but no less real for the fact that we, our neighbors, our fellow ciutizens of the world, are imperfect. Our "country" is the abstraction of the highest we can discover in ourselves and in the human race, and we owe it no less than we owe the highest within ourselves as individuals.

In 1998, for we who, for various reasons, find ourselves with a concern, a fascination, an obsession, with gold, there is a sense of crisis at hand. And that crisis may very well involve the King of Metals in activities and actions which will have powerful social and financial repercussions and implications. It may very well come to some kind of situation where one's country threatens the very right of its citizens to own or trade their gold. This has happened before. Or some other such interference with a freedom hard gained and prized. If our sense of patriotism and philosophical integrity impells us toward ever more moral forms of government, which it must, then the possibility of a crisis of choice, criticism, and dissent could be in the future for us all. For this life is not merely, nor in any way substantially, the making of money and the excitements of speculation and trade. It is a journey wherein a very serious and awesome story is unfolding, and we will all be judged, in one life or another, by the roles we play in the drama, no matter how big or small the part be. Perhaps LGB has opened a subject for intense reflection here. Not contention, but reflection. Perhaps we should prepare for the possibility that each one of us, if we believe crisis is possible, may have to choose and clarify the vision of "country", the abstract and objectively righteous ideals by which we must all abide. And once having done so, we must be prepared to owe the country in which we live the benefit of our vision, our argument, and our ideals. I agree with LGB that we do owe that to our country.

Haggis: Re your earlier question on bank exposure to Korea: US 15%, Japan 40%, European 45%. From a recent article in local press.

Present Condition # 5: In the eyes of central bankers, the precious metals are scorned as monetary units. On private individuals and companies have enough trust in gold and silver to be buyers, along with good jewelry and industrial demand.

On the bullish side, gold and silver are severely under-valued in relation to the amount of financial paper floating around the world. Also, large amounts of leased-gold has been moved onto the world markets. That means that central bank vaults are emptier than the official statistics released by the IMF. That means there is little gold available for future sale by global central banks.

I would advise you to buy 15 oz of Gold coins, Maple leafs or other low premium coins,5 oz of Platinum coins, and $1500 in Silver coins, and
I would buy the following proportionally, Barrick,Placer, Homestake,
Prime ( ag&au ) ) , Kinross and Campbell. Good Luck.

John Disney, OLD GOLD, et al.:

I extend a sincere hope of good health and better properity to all Kitcoites in 1998.

I would appreciate recommendations on either a mutual fund or NY listed fund to play RSA Golds or a few names of NY listed RSA miners trading at exceptional values with further rebound potential.

Cheers

Bob

bob@dimeinc.com

Average price of crude oil in:

1996 - 22.026
1997 - 20.609

nov97 - 20.22
dec97 - 18.32

Looking at the March silver chart, Wednesday Dec 31st had a climactic 40 cent/oz selloff intraday, ending right near the intraday high. I'd say the correction is over, and $7.50 is in the cards. SOON!

PUETZ: Thanks for the many valuable contributions during the year. I do not heed your predictions, nor any other person's, so whether they turn out to be true is irrelevant; but I do value the factual data and insight which is often provided in your posts as food for thought in developing my investment strategy.

Present Condition # 6: Deflation is the unwinding of previous loans. Deflationary pressures continue to mount. In the household sector of the US economy, and in Asia, deflation has the upper hand. Credit is only inflating in the corporate and government sectors.
That can only be sustained if the economy continues to grow. Once the US falls into recession, the markets will become more concerned with the credit-worthiness issue. First, corporate credit-quality will come under scrutiny, then, later as the recession/depression continues, US Treasury credit-quality will be examined more thoroughly.

When that happens, deflationary pressures will increase -- affecting all sectors of the US economy.

223: I don't think silver will be testing $5.20. If anything, the next point to consider seriously is the roughly 6.30-35 level where resistance lies. This is marked by a stress line on the long term silver chart connecting the top in 1968, the bottom in 1986/87, and again the top in '95. This line is the top, or resistance line in an upward biased channel ( perpendicular ) that is supported in its lower line by a line connecting the 1971 bottom , the double bottoms of 91/92, and the recent lows in '97. In a nutshell, look for consolidation in an attempt to get through that 6.30 -35ish area. If it can, next stress line resistance I could postulate on the chart looks like around 7.75 in mid- ish'98. If we get beyond that, it's 9.85 silver down the road, at the least. Look for decisive action in March when Saturn returns to exact conjunction with NYSE Moon. When it did so in '97 it floored silver into its bottom. I suspect this year the opposite action will obtain.

My New Year's gift to you all is the Money Honey Barbie doll, modeled after Maria Bartiromo. ( New York Post, Jan 1, 1998 page 22 ) . "Press her tummy and watch her hyperventilate as she shuffles through reports of the latest analyst recommendations...Pull her string and she spouts such vocabulary builders as, 'Disastrous!', 'Spectacular!', and 'Astounding!'"

http://www.usc.edu/dept/afrotc/cadets/warrior/oath.html This is the only URL I could find at short notice, but other traditional oaths of office are similar. They are lifetime oaths and remain binding even when the individual resigns their military commission. You will notice how divergent it is from the common perception of loyalty to government. IMHO

The right and proper place for American loyalty is to the Constitution, not to the wraiths who sit in power at any given time. I think that you may understand this fine point, but our friend LGB is very confused about it. IMHO

While on the surface this may have little to do with gold, the loss of our Paleofederalist ideals and standards by which governments are controlled may be one of the mechanisms by which the natural ebb and flow of currency and wealth are dammed until the "tsunami" several Kitcoites worry about becomes inevitable. IMHO

Come on in and reset the year and bullion indicators. Let's get the year off on the right foot.

I've accumulated 'way too much of it these past few years.

1998 Prediction # 1: The stock markets in Europe and North America will follow the lead of the Asian markets during October 1997 -- they will crash. The timing depends on the amount of new cash flowing into mutual funds early in 1998, and if foreign central banks continue to sell US Treasury Securities. The markets themselves will probably give the answer during the first few days of January. Here are the 2 most likely scenarios:

Scenario # 1: If the DJIA quickly rallies above 8300, and the S&P rallies above 1000, then the normal January flows into stocks are probably taking place. In that case, the market may continue to rally into February, March, or April. However, buy springtime, at the latest, the deteriorating global economic scene will be too much for the stock market to bear. In this scenario, the crash will occur between March and May of 1998.

Scenario # 2: During November and December, speculators in Europe and in the US have already placed large bets on a January stock market rally taking place. If the DJIA fails to rally during the first day or two of January, these speculators will begin to unload their bets in a big way. When that happens ( when the DJIA breaks below 7000 ) , the daisy-chain of margin-calls will be unleashed. A rather quick collapse to between 2000 and 5000 on the DJIA will take place in just a few weeks time. If the DJIA begins to decline immediately, the crash should be over before the end of January.

I believe the odds of a January crash are greater than a spring-time crash. However, the DJIA should give us the answer during the first few days of January.

1998 Prediction # 2: Presently, bonds and utility stocks are enjoying a flight-to-quality rally. This may continue for a while, as industrial stocks come under increasing pressure. But, as the economic and financial problems mount, even bonds and utility stocks will collapse as credit-worthiness concerns increase. Yields on corporate bonds will increase from their present 6% to 7% range, all the way to 10% or higher by the end of 1998. This will happen, not because of increasing inflation, but because of credit-worthiness concerns associated with deflation.

1998 Prediction # 3: The Consumer Price Index will decline by at least 7% during 1998 -- the largest single-year deflation since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The CRB Commodity Index will decline from its present 229 level, to below 190 ( a 15 year low ) .

I am just a novice goldbug and have just started investing in gold so please take my advice with extreme caution.
I would buy 80 one oz. Vienna Philhormoniker coins . They are one oz. 999.9 pure gold with a 2000 Shilling face value ( $160.00 ) . I believe Gold will retest the $285.00 level in the next couple of weeks and you should be able to buy them for under $300. each. I would also buy a Dec 98 280 put option ( 100 oz. contract ) for around $700. to cover your downside risk. Gold would have to break the $309.00 level to break even and your downside risk is less than 10%. In November of 98 you will have to decide if you want to sell your gold or buy another put to cover the downside risk again. You can use this trade for up to 100 coins because the put option covers 100 oz. This is the most conservative way I know to buy bullion. Good luck!

Which fund will have more upward volatility when gold moves up?

Here is something I thought was interesting. FWIW column:

When trading resumes in earnest next week, most traders said they

will bid the dollar higher against the mark and the yen because of

continuing evidence the U.S. economy is an attractive investment.

( WSJ Interactive )

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm......how will gold react?? And the Stox? There goes my blessed Mark. That Tietmeyer ( Bundesbank ) dude had better get his socks to match. I have been giving AWAY some of my profits.....damn. Well, at least gold is acting accordingly. ohmy?

ditty:

There once was a DA from New York

who said that Gold would pop like a cork

Along came some 'dink'

who had bet him a 'wink'

And together they stand ready with the fork.

.......cause this pig is ready... ( uhuh ) ...

now where is Bart and Jan 1, '98?? I'm sooooooooooconfuuuuuused!!!....................... ( ugh ) ....... ( cobwebs breaking apart ) ...............the sun shining brightly.........hey!...........we made the new year!!!!........... ( EB smiling ) ............ ( wimmin and chillin safe and sound ) ............Let's go TEE IT UP......... ( whock! ) .............. ( ohmy ) ......birdies and pars and no three puts.......... ( yeah right ) .....

AWAY.....to the course ( mid 70's low 80's F ) today....apply the sunscreen

paddingthehandicap

223: I was an enlisted man, a lowly draftee. I didn't resist going, in fact I was a hawk on Vietnam at the time, so I got my just desserts, I suppose. I was offered the opportunity for a commission at one brief time, but politely declined. I would have had to serve a new senten...er, hitch with the meter starting all over again. I agree with you about the Constitution. I guess the point of my New Years essay was that very thought that you so clearly illiminated in a sentence or two. I think there are some natural laws which cannot be tampered with, or amended, by either the "will" of the majority ( which may be horribly wrong and unjust ) or executive expedience of the moment ( usually to rectify a blunder willed by the representatives of the majority ) . But I also acknowledge that I live in a society of many fellow humans, with many perpectives ( even though I KNOW I am right ( ;- ) . BTW - I also see resistance for the Utility Average at around 280ish. If the Utes get thru there with any conviction, I suppose it would mean I would have to buy all the delationists a drink here!

1998 Prediction # 4: The economies of the world will sink into economic depression -- brought on buy years of over-leveraged consumption. The increasing worldwide bankruptcy-rates are the tell-tale sign that the previously fashionable credit-gig is near its end. A deflationary depression will be the end result. In the US, GDP will decline by 5% ( maybe even 10% or more ) during 1998.

CNBC TV financial celebrity and national investment newsletter analyst shares his considered opinions about all the markets with us... his first rays of 1998 wisdom:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/inger010198.html

Puetz: If any one can predict when the continuing big bets made by AG & RR will cause net outflow of mutual funds or $ selling by foreigners , then we will have the crash.

1998 Prediction # 5: Silver will continue to lead the way upward for the precious metals. The present gold-to-silver ratio of around 50-to-1 will shrink further to at least 25-to-1. By year-end, silver should be at least $10 an ounce, and, depending on how quickly the global financial system breaks down, silver could rise to $100 per ounce of higher by the end of 1998. The greatest downside-threat to silver's price will occur at the time surrounding the coming stock-market crash. Because of severe liquidity problems, silver may be temporarily dumped during or after the stock-market crash. In this case, silver may once again get down to the $5 per ounce area. But if it does, it would be an excellent buying opportunity.

1998 Prediction # 6: Gold will reverse its long bear market and enter into a bull market. The gold price will rise to at least $500 per ounce, and if the global financial system begins to unravel quickly, then gold could be $2,000 per ounce or higher by the end of 1998. Once the bull-trend is established, massive short-covering by speculators short gold via derivatives, short-covering by mines that have hedged future production, and short-covering of leased-gold by central bankers, they will all combine to consume all the newly-mined gold next year -- sending gold prices skyrocketing.

Fun Prediction: Michigan wins the Rose Bowl and is crowned National Champion. Go Big Ten!!!

That's it for my 1998 Predictions. Have a happy and prosperous New Year!!

http://www.duke.edu/~dhp/index.html Dr. Phillips AI market prediction page is one I've been following for about a year. I use it for added emphasis when I'm trying to talk myself into buying or selling sometimes, but it doesn't replace basic fundamental research and number crunching. IMHO

Per our other discussion. I was an officer until I resigned. I resigned when our CIC chose to allow the UN to waste our troops in Somalia.

PART - II, January 1, 1998

The author entitles the second part of his profound treatise as: The Alchemist Theory: Gold is Dead.

Are we witnessing the culmination of the alchemist's dream: that a fiat currency, whether made of paper or electrons, has become
not only "as good as gold" ( Alan Greenspan ) but has become a
perfect substitute?

He examines the pros, cons and feasibility of a One Global Currency. Its an intellectual exercise and very heady stuff.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/markus123197.html

The most severe inflationnary periods always occur when it seems to be under control. In the current deflationary talks and rumors when the media, analysts, average people and even the so called shrewd investors stating their opinions and reasons of a current deflationary outcome makes me believe that we are already in an inflationay mode which will continue to intensify in very subtle way.

Really, when such a consensus is reached by almost "everybody" that deflation is knocking at our doors, it is a fantastic and explosive opportunity for only a minority of traders and investors to realize that "everybody" is becoming complacent about what they believe is taking place and it's time to look in the opposite direction.

Nothing is what it seems to be and always beware of the obvious!

To me, too many people from every walks of life now agree on deflation. It is the perfect and most favorable environment for inflation!

Most commodities have now also reacted to the deflationary analysis, rumors and opinions. In a few week at the most, they will slowly start to move up and leave behind the majority of people who will continue to bet on the downside.

To all

If you try to go back to the prior time period, you will find nothing

there - There is no past - there is only the future. To Jupiter -

and Beyond.

On Aug 20 I bought 5 $10 Libertys ( 1881,1882,1893,and 2 1880's ) all XF. My avg. cost was $270. Do you think I can do better?

Vronsky Post Dec 31 1997 20:43-In keeping with Poorboys New Years levity, allow me to broadcast Poorboys planned visit to San Francisco to undergo an ANAL-IRRIGATION PROCEDURE to clear his mind. Well..., to each his own.
This is from a Group that Encourages Gold on the Internet ?Sad Day to be long a year ago.Away to find BRAINWASHING.

Many here are mistakenly hoping for a collapse in the Japanese stock market. Big mistake! That would be quite bearish for gold. The dollar would soar further. Global deflationary pressures would intensify. More overseas moneys would head for the presumed safety of the U.S.

A major rebound in Japanese stocks would be very bullish for gold. The yen would rally and the dollar would drop. Money would start to flow out of the U.S.

Bottom line -- gold will do a lot better if the Nikkei rallies to 20,000 than if it breaks to 12,000.

Deflation rumors allow the Federal Reserve to crank out the dollar bills at last months horrific rates without challenge. The credit crunch which this new money is supposed to alleviate was brought on by asset inflation/deflation and the loss of depositors money in the first place. By reinflating we start the bubble again.

It is time to make the bankers who make these bad loans pay the price. Piercing the corporate entity to make the shareholder who bails out intact after bankruptcy would also be fair, at least insofar as that venture paid distributions. Instead, a government bailout makes the populace pay off depositors which in effect redistributes wealth from the poor majority taxpayer to the minority wealthy saver/investor.

Inflationary money creation as a bailout instead of the above government bailout also robs the poor who must pay higher prices due to inflation with lagging cost of living wage increases. It is the same theory that a flat tax is regressive as poor spend a higher percentage of their disposable income.

Before the republicans jump all over me about that last comment, I agree that our current loophole ridden system is not truly progressive as it's complexity benefits the wealthy. I am talking theoretically.

Again I ask, between Fidelity Select American Gold And Select Precious Metals, which do you favor for the coming upturn in gold prices?

Steve@familyjeweler.com

RE:Japan

I think the current thinking here is that Japan falling will drag the USA into it's overdue recession. The U.S. equity market bubble needs to be pierced for gold to go up, that is very true. I would need to see more analysis though to support your contention that reinflating Japan will cause money to flow back out. I think the reinflation will entail more money all around to be invested. The money bubble will thus keep going until it is forced to pop. Japan crashing would be the pin. I do not think people are per se hoping for disaster, I think the writing on the wall is being read by those on this network and we are just bracing for the coming storm.

The money bubble cannot last ( as shown by half the globe so far ) and as such is not in the best interest of human beings, stability is.

Happy new year Old Gold!

All you have to do is look around you to see that Deflation has already
taken hold and begun to effect prices all over the world. I live in
Vancouver,Canada and have watched our Real Estate prices slip 20-25%
this year alone and it looks worse for 1998! Can you imagine we have the
lowest mortgage rates we have seen in thirty years and prices are indeed
falling.Look at the Automotive Industry for another indicator. Can you
imagine offerring 0% interest for four years in order to sell your
product? Instead of lowering prices they are HIDING PRICE DECREASES in
the form of special rebates! Ask yourself, where do they go from here?
My bet is that price reductions are less than 90 days away. Further to
this sales on the retail basis are falling as more and more consumers
feel the pinch of massive amounts of consumer debt.
There is no doubt that the Governments would choose inflation over the
dreaded deflation, but all you have to do is look back at 1929 and you
will see where inflating failed. For the last five years I have been
accused of being negative about our economy and my goals were to get out
of debt and owe nothing. I am happy to say today that I owe nothing and
have put all excess cash in gold. If I am wrong about the future of paper
the worst possible position I will end up in is Debt-Free and enough
gold to open up my own coin shop.
For those in debt the outcome could prove very painful. I owe alot to
James Davidson and have followed the indicators one by one as he laid out
in The Great Reckoning! This book is a must read for everyone interested
in the well being of his or her family. His timing has not been perfect
but the events have all occurred just as were laid out in his book.
What is even more interesting is how he predicted so many would be lead
into this crisis with their eyes closed. As I watch the Dow move forward
it becomes more and more obvious that the Rich are simply blowing off
their paper to the poor. The vehicle they have used this time around is
the Mutual Funds. Not disclosing inflows and outflows should be veiwed as
an indicator that the massive blowoff is moving closer.
When I first read his book I didnot agree with his prediction of civil
unrest in North America, however five years later and watching this game
unfold it now is veiwed as a distinct possibility. The poor will this
time around become much more vocal and unions will flourish.
This is just my opinion and if indeed the Music has already Stopped it
will make 1998 a year that will go down in history which will replace
the history surrounding 1929.
Happy New Year To All!

Steve Puetz- Your predictions for 98 are right on the mark! $540 gold by
August 98.

Tally Ho

Hi y'all. Can't seem to access this mornings posts ( everything after 00:00 ) . Any tricks I don't know about?

Selling land? Sell soon, says one broker

By DON STONEMAN


Long time farmland real estate broker Bruce Rathwell thinks the rush of
European farmers to immigrate to Canada is over as land values across the
pond continue to decline.

Unless there are other pressures, the Clinton-based Rathwell says, farmers won't leave
their home farms while their value is shrinking. Deflation has hit Switzerland, where
land prices have declined by 50 per cent from the peak three years ago. Austria and
Germany are headed the same way, Rathwell says.

The exception may be Holland. With disease sweeping through the country's swine
industry like wildfire, one pig in three is likely to be killed before it reaches market.
Rathwell says Dutch farmers are waiting for government buyouts, so they're staying
put for now. But Rathwell says with a cheque in hand some Dutch farmers will want to
come to Canada.

When they do, they'll be looking for farms with modern buildings, 500 sows or more,
and 2,000 plus feeder barns. Dutch farmers feel smaller barns are obsolete.

These new Canadians will bring with them technology that was paid for by the Dutch
government, the only government in Europe that really supports agriculture, Rathwell
says. This will boost all of agriculture here.

Rathwell says current European buyers are seeking a safe haven for their money, away
from the currency devaluation that may occur when weak and strong European
currencies are combined into the Euro-dollar. While annual returns on Ontario land
have averaged around three per cent since 1990, many Europeans think land is a
better investment than the potentially higher risk returns on the stock market.

European land buyers generally like the fact that there are environmental regulations in
place here in Canada, Rathwell says. They want to see practical limits to the number
of livestock that can be put on an acreage. "People coming to Canada are more
environmentally conscious than we are," Rathwell says. "They've been in a place
where there were no laws, and now they are being kicked out."

While one driving force behind land prices has been European immigrant dem-and, the
other is expansion here driven by high commodity prices. It's rare that dairy, pig and
cash crop farmers are all doing well at once. Pork demand from Asia, in particular,
has driven expansion. Rathwell stresses that high commodity and land prices have
nothing to do with policies developed by governments.

A sharp decline in farm commodity prices here that triggers deflated land prices will be
created somewhere else, Rathwell says, urging farmers to keep an eye on the
economic fortunes of Pacific Rim nations. Asian governments are under tremendous
pressure now as their formerly robust economies go through a readjustment.

"If Asian currencies stay strong you'll see things boom here. If their currencies fall that
would hurt us," Rathwell says. His advice? Watch the money markets. Where it goes,
commodities will follow.

Another factor in land prices is interest rates. Low rates now are making the boom in
land buying possible. For that reason, anyone thinking of selling a farm in the next 12
years better do it in the next two, Rathwell says. He predicts that land prices that are
peaking now with low interest rates and high commodity prices will go down later,
emphasizing that no boom lasts forever. While Rathwell is best known for swinging
deals between farmers of different nations, he says most of his business is with farmers
trading land right here in Canada.

Nationalism, ethnic backgrounds, racial differences and not to mention ingrained cultural characteristics, plus the fact that many of us hate each other would rule out a one world currency - even under extreme duress.

http://www.amcity.com:80/albany/stories/121597/smallb3.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971231/asia_warnings_1.html

The Hatt: We are being told that Vancouver house prices fell because a lot of Hong Kong money and families that was pouring in before the take over has stopped coming after the take over. Also the new rules requiring the disclosure of overseas holdings for Canada tax purposes in combination with the "peaceful" period since the takeover has lead to the return of many Hong Kong Chinese leaving their monster houses on the market thereby reducing prices by about a third. Is this not correct?

John Kutyn is undoubtedly one of last years most brilliant and perceptive analysts on the Domino Effect sweeping through Southeast Asia. His insightful take on currency chaos and stock market turmoil paint a grim picture of what the new year holds for the countries of that area... indeed what the ramifications are for the rest of the world. Following are a few of his random thoughts on the area. Additionally, he shares his opinion of the precarious condition of the Japanese Banking System, and what we might brace ourselves for in 1998.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/kutyn010198.html

DJ: Disney is correct, the past is lost here at Kitco -- at least until Bart adds January to his menu of months ( now, there is only Oct, Nov, and Dec ) . Bart will probably fix it on Monday.

Donald: Thanks for the Schwartz story on deflation. The only problem with the story is that Schwartz places the blame on capitalism, rather than the real culprit -- over-expansion of credit and dishonest-money created by central-banking and fractional-reserve-banking.

I like FSAGX for best past performance over 1-5 years ( lost less? )
Notice that FDPMX has some SA holdings and ask J. Disney about those.
G.S. Cole used to say that in a real Gold bull, FDPMX would outperform.
eh George????

Here are the holdings as of 9/30/97 for FSAGX and FDPMX:

FSAGX

Top Ten Holdings as of 09/30/1997
GETCHELL GOLD CORP
EURO-NEVADA MINING CORP LTD
PLACER DOME INC
NEWMONT MINING CORP
NEWMONT GOLD CO
MERIDIAN GOLD INC
GREENSTONE RESOURCES LTD
FRANCO-NEVADA MINING CORP LTD
PRIME RESOURCES GROUP INC
BUENAVENTURA ( CIA DE MIN ) CL T

60.0% of the portfolio


FDPMX

Top Ten Holdings as of 09/30/1997
GETCHELL GOLD CORP
EURO-NEVADA MINING CORP LTD
NEWMONT MINING CORP
MERIDIAN GOLD INC
FRANCO-NEVADA MINING CORP LTD
NORMANDY MINING LTD
PLACER DOME INC
PIONEER GROUP INC
CENTAUR MINING & EXPLORATN LTD
WESTERN DEEP LEVELS LTD ADR


54.7% of the portfolio

i tried evrything and all i got was blivit. but then tried "click here"
to acces frames and i got backt to about 9 am. also hetting current postings. hope this helps. i'm sure all you older fellows know waht a blivit is, but for the benefit of the others- it is 20 pounds of sh!t in
a 10 pound bag. happy new year.

i tried evrything and all i got was blivit. but then tried "click here"
to acces frames and i got backt to about 9 am. also hetting current postings. hope this helps. i'm sure all you older fellows know waht a blivit is, but for the benefit of the others- it is 20 pounds of sh!t in
a 10 pound bag. happy new year.

Blivit? Sure I knew that. I know who Kilroy is too.

I have valued your contributions in the past, even though I think you have been rather generous in your self-marked end of year card. In your many months touting of a gold rally/Dow collapse you were dead wrong,.

Your predictions are interesting, but when you talk of the DJIA dropping to 2000 or a 7% drop in GDP I'm afriad I start to look at what you say in the same light as the year 2000 end-of -the -world-nuts, or flying saucer freeks.

Have a good year.

Folks, first HAPPY NEW YEAR to all of you.

As far as accessing posts, I don't have any problem to access all posts from today, as well as posts for the last three month in 1997.

I use a frame version of Kitco, Netscape browser 3.02 under Windows 95.

Now, under that set up, if I click on "reload", I get all posts for today, starting with Ted's post at 00:00.

For previous dates ( Oct, Nov, Dec 1997 ) use menu

To get back to today posts just hit "reload" and when you get a prompt "reload from dat" press cancel.

This works just fine for me, not sure what is a behavior using different browser.

- Miro

Well, it was a rough night for the old lady and me
Woke up seven different times to take a pee
The five aspirin left me with a sour stomach
The six percodans had me heaving up vomit
I'm short a 100,000 ounces of silver and twice as much gold
I'm either totally moronic or totally stoned
I'm loaded with debt right up to my neck
I'm down on my knees praying for "January Effect"
If the Dow don't shoot up tomorrow at least 1000 points
I'll be selling flowers at bars, whorehouses, and other joints
Yes, my name is Shorty McGee, if you don't already know
Gotta leave you for now and find me that white shiny bowl.

http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/display.htm is a temporary mirror page for Kitco gold chat date/time searching with 1998 functions added. The original is expected to be fixed on Monday.

There is a lot of hard evidence, if you know where to look, to back up what some of the Year 2000 "freaks" are saying. There is no such mountain of evidence backing up the existence of UFO's. What, personally , do you know of the Year 2000 situation? How much time have you researched the subject and how close are you to it in your day to day life? I've seen it every day of my professional life since 1974. Personally, I think the Year 2000 situation is what is going to cause the US stock market to collapse. One thing that drives the stock prices is earnings. When investors begin to see how badly the bottom line is affected by having to fix the Year 2000 problem or worse yet, by not fixing it at all, there will be a panic out of stocks.

fundaMETAList

Donald, Hatt, Puetz, Missinglink,et al...
My post at 03:07 this morning made a number of rather important
points in connection with I/D including the fact that when one
calculates predictions for Gold, Markets etc.. one must always include
as a very important factor "Their Weapons of Mass Deception" which
among many include outright interference in said "FREE"markets.
IMHO "THEY" will do every and any thing to keep the "Paper Game"
going, at all costs for as long as possible.Witness the 15 years or so
since 1982, whenthe 3rd World Debt, YES remember "IT" how that
was suppose to send the world into another 1929. What about the
massive S&L Bailouts etc.... the point being that "THEY" can and
have been creating "CONFIDENCE" in the markets with said weapons.
I vividly remember 1987, Black Monday!! and it was there and then
that "Their Weapons of Mass Deception" were revealed to the
unsuspecting world in an incredible way ,really, that IMHO said
intervention must be factored in any economic forcast.
I believe "they" have their focus on economic stability, the continuation
and extension of said Paper Game, even if it means changing all the
rules as it suits them, and "THEY" are now all WORLD Governments
necessarily because they are playing the same "Paper Game" and
are desirous of maintaining peace and tranquility i.e. Status Quo.
Thus far they have been able to "convince" Europe and Americans
that this is an Asian problem, thereby buying time, prolonging said
Paper Game.
IMHO as experts and said authorities are surprised by reaction
of markets to said "World Crisis" as they have been so far, there
exists a "Psychological Threshold " so that mass anxiety deepens as crisis worsens and people say I'd better not invest, I'll put my money on the mattress , I should not give or get a loan etc...Disinflation at first,
which is exactly where Japan is and has been for some time now,
because of said threshold, people get scared.
IMHO it would take a series of serious errors by AG et al to permit
the current Disinflation to spiral down to Deflation a la 29.
However that is why we should all be concerned, since thus far
"THEY" have only been focusing on the Finacial indicators
getting them balanced etc...thinking this will stop the panic.
I believe "They" will be proven wrong, and when the next panic wave
comes over the Markets "They" will be forced to then focus on
Real World Growth, real Players, Consumers, WAGES etc...Inflation!!
It will prove once again the only way out of this "crisis"
Gold will/has been sniffing this out and will gradually move up throughout 1998. But As I posted numerous times before the BIG moves in Gold
will come when the US$ is challenged as sole World Reserve Currency,
by Euro, Huang/Yen ,Oil etc...the free ride will be over.

Happy Hic New Year to all

Get Camdesuss! hiccup!

If you want to view posts from 00:00 onward then toggle the short version option and refresh the screen.

I agree with you that their preference would be to continue to inflate. I do not think it is within their control. Japan is trying to inflate now yet businesses and banks are still collapsing. Ditto for Korea. It just isn't working. They must hold back on inflation or investors will dump their long term bonds. The only survived inflation this far because it was just the drip, drip, drip, kind of inflation. Now problems are popping up faster. They need a fast inflation to counteract. But they are in Big Box Canyon this time. Fast inflation now and the Bond Vigilantes start shootin'.

yeah, kilroy is faster than light. he got there before anybody.i hope your money gets to you like that before anybody gets in the way. happy new year. something is working.

To paraphrase Mark Twian and relate it to the DJIA- Reports of my demise have been exaggerated. Much to my chagrin and that of many other contributors to this forum- paper has risen and been boss.

Sure if you were smart you pull some out now and pay down debt, perhaps buy some metals. But lets face while we've been saying ( and Peutz especially ) the roof will fall in, peoeple ( not us ) have been making money, and we've been losing it.

Lets be honest and admit that. El Nino, SEAsia crash, Presidental Elections, History and weirder reasons all have been put forward as reasons for the DJIA crash- STILL AWAITED- why not add Year-2000 to the list.

Have a prosporous Year

http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/display.htm is a temporary mirror page for Kitco gold chat date/time searching with 1998 functions added ( no frames ) . The original will be fixed on Monday ( hopefully ) .

I reckon the year 2000 bug struck Kitco 2 years early...cant accesss the long version.....

Mike Sheller kicks off the New Year with both a warning list of potential hotspots around the world, as well as his campy tribute to magazine horoscopes ( HEY-HEY, check out what the stars hold for YOU in 1998 ) . However, the serious business comes first, as he takes a look at some national horoscopes ( from Cambodia to the USA ) for some clues to future activities, which may affect the financial markets:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/astro123197.html

Talked with Blanchard yesterday. They advised that they have been engaged by the second largest bank in the USA to assist a group of clients in purchasing over 100,000,000 worth of rare coins.

I agree that at least one of those 2 items is a problem for them.
The issue of Inflation not taking hold in Japan, as I stated in my post,
masses in Japan have crossed the "Psychological Threshold" of
anxiety and have been there for a number of years now, not so the
case in Europe& US "Confidence" levels quite high, "They" have
some time before masses there reach said threshold, not much mind
you but some time.
The second issue of US Bonds is obviously a more serious problem
for them, however "They" will create US$ paper elsewhere and domestically to absorb said sales, but you are correct eventually
that spirals out of control in the opposite direction, where "They" then
focus their energies on fighting Inflation.It should give them enough time
about 2 years or so IMHO to attempt to fix said "Crisis". It appears to me
Deja Vu all over again, since "They" have consistently played "The
Game this way. Anyway we look at it, Gold is going up.

vertigo: Here is the reason why Year 2000 will have such a big effect on the stock market. Many of these other problems that people think will bring down the stock market can and will be "fixed" ( at least temporarily ) by throwing hugh amounts of money at it just like what is happening in SE Asia but Year 2000 is one problem that cannot be solved entirely by just throwing piles of money at it. You also need TIME and PERSONNEL to fix it. Both are in short supply now and will continue to get tighter. I think by the end of 1998 you may have a different outlook on the Year 2000 problem. Is your job entirely safe from this monster? Please do not belittle this problem unless you've really taken time to understand it.

You're item regarding paying down debt and buying physical precious metals is excellent advice and a path that I'm actively pursuing.

May all your investments in 1998 have a silver lining!

fundaMETAList

CJS1__A Hey did you do that? v impressive, it will be a crying shame to beat England again next year-- Go---ALL Blacks!!

Go clever pommies!

Skylark on Puetz @ 12:55. Well put!

auratorhoningskills

Fortune - Nelson Schwartz

"Don't Even Think of Buying Gold. I shouldn't have to say this, but I've seen articles recommending gold because it looks cheap. Well, it's going to get cheaper. The same is true for other metals and commodities, so fight the temptation to buy. "

"On another front, expect Year 2000 stocks to get more attention from smart investors. This is a real problem, and corporations are only just now spending money to address it."

Again, don't shoot, I am only the courier on a bicycle.

What bothers me about these comments is that they never explain their positions.
Nothing to learn! Comments?

Also, does anybody have a feeling as to what the metal prices will do tomorrow?

Also, does anybody have a feeling as to what the metal prices will do tomorrow?

G'Day,

"My" rock is from the Lindsays Open Pit in Coolgardie Greenstone Belt. This Archaean Greenstone Belt is some 2700 Million Years old, give or take a million years here and there. The actual rock is a potassic altered high magnesium basalt, riddled with quartz veins, with nuggets of primary gold on the edges of the quartz veins. The Lindsays pit is presently mined down to a depth of 80 metres, but a very good life potential, with one of the central mineralised zones drilled to 360 vertical metres with a mining width of 20 to 40 metres and grade of 3.6 g/t. Potential bulk underground proposition, with depth potential way below 360 metres.
The Coolgardie was the first to be mined in Western Australia in 1892? Still going strong, still with another hundred years to go!!?

If the B ( w ) ankers, some of them, have dealt with their gold derivatives, not yet paid for, used the "cash" to invest elsewhere, investments have gone wrong, still have to pay for the gold, Central Banks withdraw "pool of gold liquidity", ask for gold payments.......leaves somebody holding the baby!! A bit of a mess.

Aye, Haggis

Pacific Northwest Dave ( CAN ANYONE TELL ME OF A SPOT METAL GRAPH LIKE
KITCO"S? ) :

Intra-Day charts displaying the days price trend of the most representative of financial assets and real assets. One may thus appreciate the day's relative price movement of DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ, DJUA, versus XAU, HUI, GOLD, SILVER PLATINUM & PALLADIUM. NEWLY added T-Bonds & Crude Oil. In effect you are on the "virtual trading floor" of each:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/intra-day.html



GOLD CORNER - 24-HOUR TRADING

Major Gold Trading Centers Around the World. Many Gold price links, including closing bullion and gold coin prices. Also shows live GOLD TRADING in London, Singapore, Tokyo & the COMEX:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/quotes/goldcorner.html

G'Day,

Joint venture, 50:50 between Normandy and Homestake.

KCGM is the biggest gold mining operation in Australia, and comprises of a number of operations on the eastern outskirts of Kalgoorlie, including the Super Pit, Mt Charlotte ug, and Mt Percy open pit. The Superpit lies to the south, Mt Charlotte north-central, and Mt Percy to the north. ADDITIONAL potential lies between the Superpit and Mt Charlotte and was/is? owned by Central Kalgoorlie. Further potential lies between Mt Charlotte and Mt Percy, but is presently restricted by infrastructure. Further potential lies to the north of Mt Percy, but is presently restricted by a tourist mine. One of the key problems that KCGM have always had is the definition of resources and reserves, and effectively the resource ( s ) have never been properly drilled out to current AusIMM standards. the "official" mine life for the Superpit is 19 years, but the actual life will go way way beyond this. Forecast figures for 97/98 are, AU$millions:
Spot revenue 393.6, Operating costs 292.4, Operating cashflow 68.6.
Reserve ounces 11.9, resource ounces 12.6, total ounces 24.5
Tonnes treated 10 Mt, 2.5 g/t, recovery 88%, strip ratio 8
Mine evaluation: NPV 0% 1418m$, NPV 5% 904m$, NPV 10% 617m$.

Not sure on gold allocation - assume 50% split?!
Aye, Haggis

Dr. Thomas Drake generously shares with the GOLD-EAGLE readership a synopsis of his erudite and comprehensive YEAR END MARKET REVIEW.

It is indeed a perceptive and incisive analysis... must reading for the serious market student and professional. Also, very illuminating are the two 23-year charts of GOLD and the US Dollar.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/Aurophile123197.html

G'Day,

I assume that you are riding on square wheels!

Aye, Haggis

Hey vertigo - better wake up! Y2k is the most serious problem the modern world has faced. It's not trivial and will likely bring down the financial system as you know it. Unless you have some evidence to the contrary, I suggest you do a little research. You might start with www.garynorth.com.

KCT

Ahhh yawn, stretch, I emerge into 1998, a new creature. Reborn from my chrysalis of contentiousness, into the form of beauty which we all...Opps, I'm sounding like Aurator or something! Anyway, in seriousness, I have my NY resolutions list here, with Stradmeaisters exhortations underlined....so....

Sheller;

You're 12:43 is a work of geniuos. I agree with all your major points. May your market analysis and hit rate in 98, be a resounding success ( but due to your astute analytical tools that don't involve celestial bodies! hehehe )

Puetz;

I'm afraid I must agree with Crystal Ball, that your score card might be just the tiniest bit generous. After all, by far about 90% of the predicitve comments we read from you in the past year, related to imminent DOW Crashes by certain dates, and be certain amounts having 80% probabilities. Huge gold gains were a close second.

I also can't say I'm rooting for your 98 predictions to come true as I have a much more optimistic outlook, however, your warnings are a nice counterpoint to the "conventional", keep em coming... Just ONE small request, could you PLEASE reverse your call on Silver and call for it's complete collapse??? I hold a lot of it and...uh... ( Just funnin ya Puetz..... )

I did a mind dump, who was it here that was tracking final quarter predictions and was to report on results?

All
Tired of kitco's odd behaviour? The answer may be a simple act of sabotage. We just have to cause a power failure for kitco's server to re-boot which, I think must be attached by a piece of string to Bart's big toe this from a kitco intro page:

"Our offices are closed for the holidays and so
our 24-hour charts will be only be working
once again on Jan 5, 98. ( Or unless we're lucky
enough to get a prolonged power failure
causing all of our servers to re-boot ) "

So, either a small commando raid to pull the plug on the pesky computers, OR
Wwe'll need a serious power failure in Montreal. Could all Quebeckers & Quebecois please plug in all electrical appliances at 20:00 today. thanks

Tim: I might you need to defend me on this 'un!

When it says to hit reload to update prices quicker, do they mean to hit "refresh"? Your advice is greatly appreciated!

Some posters here are working on the Y2K problem directly: fundaMETAList, Miro, and YEAR2000 to name a few. There are probably a lot of lurkers and mostly-lurkers ( like me ) with programming backgrounds who are here principally because we fear the outcome of Y2K. Just from observation I'd say that the proportion of programmers here is several times higher than average. In my 30 years of programming I could count on my fingers the number of managers and users I've worked with who had a good grasp of the complexities of information systems. Therefore, what the hands-on people like fundaMETAList, Miro, and YEAR2000 are saying will occupy my attention.

I was well-aware of Y2K because I developed a lot of systems since the 60's which would have to be fixed if still around. What I didn't realize was that so many of the legacy systems were still running and that so many companies and governments were depending on them.

Because of the complexity and interdependence of the systems that have to be fixed and tested and the immovable completion date, I believe that some percentage of systems will fail which will affect other systems, ..., resulting in very real economic effects. As fundaMETAList said, just the cost of Y2K projects will be a major economic factor starting in 1998.

Like KC Trader, I also recommend the Gary North Y2K site.

Pacific Northwest Dave: it all depends which browser, and which particular browser version you are using. There are problbably 10-15 browsers out there, and 2-3 different versions of each browser make. Unfortunately, they are NOT consistent in word usage. In quite a cavalier fashion they just let it all hang out, and call things what they darn well please, expecting the hapless user to read their minds. In any case "refresh" sounds close to "reload." But remember you will only get new values when the markets are open ( obviously ) .

IMHO the best best browser - bar none - is Netscapes Communicator version 4.04. It does everything but talk back 'to-ya.'

Here's a recent headline in an English newspaper in Rome:

"Prostitues Appeal to Pope"

Soros and Rothchild - what is the LINK.

Does anyone have detail concerning this link, or comment on Soros observation on the requirement for an International Loan Guarantee Fund - a possible Central Bank to all Central Banks, what are the criteria for joining the "club", particularly with respect to gold.

Also, what is Soros recorded view on gold? If any.

It is interesting that Soros should make his comments when - "In exchange for the aid, South Korea has flung open its financial markets, lifting almost all restrictions on foreign investment in the stock and bond markets, allowing the won currency to float and significantly easing capital controls".

Talk about getting you by the bal.s, so your heart and mind will follow!!

Aye, Haggis

Re: Yours of 14:43 -- On Aug 20 I bought 5 $10 Libertys ( all XF ) . My avg. cost was $270. Do you think I can do better? According to my sources, $255 per $10 Liberty in XF is about right. I like the $20 Libertys better because you get 2X the gold for much less than 2X price ( ~$385 ea. )

I can't change my "viewing options" to "Jan 01 98" so I can read the posts from last midnight. When I select Time 00.00 I get no posts.
I must read the posts. These posts are the only true mental stimulation of intelligent discussions. I feel throwing the computer in the swimming pool.
Please advice what to do so that I can read them. Anybody has similar problems?

CBS NEWS had a good piece tonight about Y2K.
Many government agencies were given a "D" or "E" on their Y2K progress!
I also work in the field and clearly this situation is still in the denial phase in organizations.
If I can offer one prediction for 1998, it's that there will be a sense of Y2K panic emerging very soon, with companies taking drastic
measures to get back on track, and needless to say compounded shortage of programmers/analysts with agressive recruitment tacticks and soaring compensation offers being the norm.........

Haggis_A: They are inextricably linked almost as "Siamise Twins" - The diabolical 'thread' begins here:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/markus112297.html

HAGGIS: Pls brief me on Great Central mines.

Gold's lack of lustre is unlikely to be more than just a passing phase

Originally published: SATURDAY NOVEMBER 29 1997

From Mr A.E. Brown.

Sir,

The recent decision of some governments to unload their gold bullion

reserves should be seen for what it is - a cosmetic exercise to meet the

Maastricht budgetary criteria. It is an undesirable move since it

by-passes the intention of Maastricht to assure long-term budgetary

discipline. And it is another blow to the role of gold in international

finance.

However, it is quite premature to rule out an important and, possibly,

once again, predominant role for gold. The lessons of 3,000 years of

history should not be jettisoned. For most of civilisation's history

there was a single currency - it was silver. However, gold played a role

from the earliest times. It took over the main role with the discovery

of large deposits in the 19

bonds------


check-out this 10 year chart for 30yr bonds.........

http://router.minot.com/~bohl/w_Chart.cgi?US

what do you see grasshopper???

yep, bonds are coming DOWN!!!!!!!!

the other 2 waves were quite short lived....
this one will last the least, and prove to
be a real nasty, retreating beast......

+1 and counting-------

donald_a

your post on mexico has re-kindled the following from previous
posts of mine, plus the CONNECTION your story provided....


the earthquake that ravaged san francisco, also destroyed a
marine base and left the troops in need of another facility.
the klinton administration deferred in favor of CHINA over
OUR OWN MARINES in this DEEP WATER PORT FACILITY ON THE
WEST COAST!

last year 7 semi-tractor-trailers loaded to the gills with heavy
armament were apprehended and found to be bound for the
interior of mexico. the investigation also determined that
there were at least 3 more semi-tractor-trailers
that were not apprehended, and probably crossed into mexico.
the trucks were traced back to the ex-naval base controlled
by the chinese!!

read kitco 8-15-97 @21:10

why would the chinese want civil disorder in mexico?

why would mexico want INTERNAL strife in north america?

30,000 strong, eh donald??? wonder when the TET-LIKE-OFFENSIVE
is going to take place? this is the way it will happen. in the
night, the attack....politicians, civil servants, soldiers,
police, lawyers, intelligenitia, etc....they and their families,
along with the infra-structure that supports them, will be
destroyed..........who helped the viet-cong plan the tet offensive?


the chinese are supporting the coming up-rising in mexico..

to what end?

china is fixing to assert itself ( for all to see ) as one of
the major power brokers in the world......

read 8-15-97@21:10 again--i submit that this is the future...again....

ranier and mammoth are fixing to surprise the laid-back-ones------

don't be surprise------listen-to-your-eyes---they-"see"-everything!!!!

cherokee!; ) dotssmsotsagotbfwitw-------you-got-that-right--lynryd-skynryd!; )

Haggis_A: Follow the thread leading to GOLD'S FUTURE.......
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta1030.html

Is Japen closed until Monday?????

correction on prior post......

"why would 'CHINA' want internal strife in north america?"

Yep, Japan's closed for the holidays, till the 5th.

Gold's lack of lustre is unlikely to be more than just a passing phase
Originally published: SATURDAY NOVEMBER 29 1997
From Mr A.E. Brown.
Sir,
The recent decision of some governments to unload their gold bullion reserves should be seen for what it is - a cosmetic exercise to meet the
Maastricht budgetary criteria. It is an undesirable move since it by-passes the intention of Maastricht to assure long-term budgetary
discipline. And it is another blow to the role of gold in international
finance. However, it is quite premature to rule out an important and, possibly,once again, predominant role for gold. The lessons of 3,000 years of history should not be jettisoned. For most of civilisation's history there was a single currency - it was silver. However, gold played a role from the earliest times. It took over the main role with the discovery of large deposits in the 19th century. In the early years of this century gold coins circulated in most of the world. Paper money was
convertible to gold on demand. My father, before the first world war,
travelled internationally with gold sovereigns in his pocket. National
currencies were linked to gold.There was a single world currency called by different names. A US dollar was defined as 23.22 grains of pure gold. A British pound was defined as 113 grains of pure gold. The gold standard functioned throughout the world. It provided an automatic adjustment system, preventing countries from running large and persistent deficits or surpluses. The fiscal discipline which it imposed on governments proved too harsh in the great depression of the 1930s and the gold standard was abandoned.
None of the attempts to replace it by international agreement in the 50
years since the second world war has proved satisfactory. They have all
been dominated by a US policy consistently aimed at replacing gold by
the US dollar. The dollar, after all, is just another national currency
subject to government manipulation. There were crises in the 1960s and a
noted upheaval in 1971 when President Nixon suspended the US undertaking
to convert dollars into gold ( established in 1934 ) . The dollar was
devalued by 10 per cent. The dollar was devalued a second time in
February 1973 by a further 10 per cent. The US is, for the time being, the only superpower. It has a commanding position in all aspects of world affairs, and it is natural that it will seek to profit from its situation. We should bear in mind that the dollar is unlikely to be forever almighty. Gold is incorruptible and its loss of lustre is likely to be a passing phase. Do we really want the Euro to be tied to the dollar?
A.E. Brown,
Calle el Sol 6, Apt.1,
Puerto Santiago,
38683, Los Gigantes,
PO Box 27,
Tenerife,
Spain

for last nite, go to 12/31/97. for today click
on frames for metal mkts and watching group. use
reload to get later. try this, it works for me.

Well, it was a rough night for the old lady and me
Woke up seven different times to take a pee
The five aspirin left me with a sour stomach
The six percodans had me heaving up vomit
I'm short a 100,000 ounces of silver and twice as much gold
I'm either totally moronic or totally stoned
I'm loaded with debt right up to my neck
I'm down on my knees praying for "January Effect"
If the Dow don't shoot up tomorrow at least 1000 points
I'll be selling flowers at bars, whorehouses, and other joints
Yes, my name is Shorty McGee, if you don't already know
Gotta leave you for now and find me that shiny white bowl.

Thanks for the information about Mexico. Wasn't there also a large shipment of Chinese rifles bound for the slums of L.A.? And the arms dealer responsible met with our distinguished ?president? Makes you wonder how many shipments of Chinese military hardware made it through undetected.

This idea floating around out there that the computer mess is just a bump in the road is nuts. Most of the large systems in the world are going to fail. Particularly at risk are the government and financial systems. You know the financial system is an electronic system. I'd say at the moment based upon what I know of this problem, the chances of the world falling back to lifestyles of the 1800's is about 100%. There is little you do everyday which is not in someway connected to the electronic financial system. When this data becomes interrupted or distorted, the financial system will stop. Whoever you work for will not be able to conduct business and will likely not have need of your services. Even if the company you work for is compliant, if the system is not, the company is sol.

This doesn't even touch on the problems with utilities, telcos, and embedded systems with applications in oil, grains, manufacturing, and distribution. The problem is everywhere and is certainly underappreciated by everyone in terms of it's possible ramifications. If estimates are correct predicting that only 10% of the systems in the world are likely to function flawlessly 2000-1-1, then its all over, end of story. This is a no-brainer; buy gold and silver bullion. Of course you can't eat gold and silver so you also may want to consider food, fuel, water, ammo, and anything else tradable in the barter society which appears to be right around the corner. This isn't hype unfortunately, it appears to be reality.

For a daily view of what some of the better mainframe geeks say about the situation is at comp.software.year-2000.

KCT

Mines failing to produce gold owed?

DENVER, Jan 1 ( Reuters ) - Consolidated Nevada Goldfields Corp [Nasdaq:
KNVCF - news] said it has not made the scheduled principal payment of
2,611 troy ounces of gold due on December 31, 1997 to ING Capital Corp
and is now in discussions with its lendor.

Could this be the first short blown out of the market? If so, this is great news! I wonder how many others couldn't cover Dec 31?

KCT

Go to the Mirror Site
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/display.htm

Now tell me how are we going to make a few bucks on it. Any companies that aren't hyped to the moon that we can get in on?

G'Day,
Great Central Mines distinguished itself by rapidly developing low cost gold production at over 450 000 oz per annum within 5 years of the Bronzewing and Jundee Deposits in the Archaean Yandal Greenstone Belt ( little or no surface outcrop over the entire regional area ) . Combined Bronzewing and Jundee production is anticipated at over 600 000 oz per annum by the year 2000, when the Bronzwing and Barton Deeps underground projects become fully operational.
GCM have recently acquired Eagle Mining and Wiluna MInes, and have therfroe effectively tied up a HUGE tenement portfolio in the north Eastern Goldfields of Western Australia. Normandy provided a AU$152 million credit facility for these acquistions. J Gutnick, Chairman of GCM, had some criticism leveled at him at the AMG by shareholders, but he is confident that the money paid is well spent, and that shareholders will achieve a good return. Normany MAY fully acquire GCM in due course. The NEW combined operations may be expected to produce 750 000 ounces per annum minimum, possibly up to 1M oz per annum.
Projections for 1997/98 are - premerger:
Opening reserves 2.38 M oz, resources 6.78 M oz.
Ore treated 4.9Mt @ 3.26/gt
Production 485 000 oz gold, Cash costs AU$/oz 287
GCM @ 10% NPV AU$ 357 million
Reported profit AU$39.9 million
Exploration AU$25 million per annum - very good exploration upside, and excellent "cheap" further acqusition potential.

One interesting feature concerning J Gutnick is that he personally financies ALL West Bank development in Israel. He is heavily backed via New York.

The main "new" play of Gutnick is Johnson's Well Mining NL in the Duketon region of Western Australia. Something very big may be expected out of this area with in excess of 1M oz resources already delineated.

dave-co----

there was a ship-load stopped off of long-island.....
bound for the gangs of new york.......all chinese weapons....

they had been off-loaded from a larger 'mother-ship'......
was never apprehended........right.......

chaos and flux.......previewing real soon at your neighborhood
...................the signals are there for all to see.....
...........................their agenda includes you only as fodder....

ask earl about fodder!!

ted-----how's the flame?

eb......you pro-crastinating nutria ( water rat ) ... so...you had your
chance.......where are those 'hot' option calls??? yeah, right.....
still ciphering?? double naut-n-double naut...isn..triple naut......

hong kong chicken flu is coming for you.....gold and silver gives
the hong kong chicken flu chicken pocks.....heh..heh...ok..forward....


cherokee; ) --guardian-of-the-barked-ones------solicitor-of-the-seeds----
-----------------------------------------------------------of-knowledge

http://www.canoe.ca/TopStories/dec31_zealand.html

I cant get on the site you mentioned comp.software.year-2000. Please check and repost. Thanks

Prediction #1. The Federal Reserve in the US in the next 60
days or so, will lower interest rates by at least 1/4 %.

All at once..."Numismatic coins are most probably the least exploited area left on this planet."

Prediction #2. The Federal Reserve in the US will then continue
in an orderly and timely fashion, to cut interest rates thru most of 1998
a total of about 1 1/4 %. We will see long term rates below 5%.

Actually I'm more in the mode of preserving what I've got. I'm expecting a complete meltdown. In this scenario, my family's safety and my hard assets are most important. Making a buck infers that the buck ends up being worth something tangible a couple of years from now. The only money asset to hold is gold and silver. I trade the commodity markets but I'll tell you, when the panic starts, any electronic anything will become worthless. I figure 'maybe' I've got another 12-15 months to trade before I'll close my account and convert it to usable assets. I guess my way to make a buck on the deal is to convert all electronic money to physical assets for my own use or for trading.

I've been on this problem for a few years, but not until the last six months or so did I believe it was going to be this serious. Not much has been fixed and the prospects for essential systems ( utilities, banking, telcos, distribution ) isn't looking reassuring. The government seems to be in the worst shape of all, but this is no surprise considering the lack of profit motive.

One of my biggest fears is the cities. I don't know if you are a US resident, but the US cities are the powderkeg of the welfare state. When government systems fail, the cities will fail with them likely making the LA riots look like a picnic. Government efforts at protecting the citizens will likely come up short.

In answer to your question, I guess I would have to say this; what is a buck and are they really desirable at this point?

KCT

Prediction #3. As a result on Predictions 1 & 2, the US$ will decline
in value against some major currencies, Swiss Franc, Mark, Yen and
B. Pound etc.. a total of about 10- 15% in an orderly and timely fashion.

Sorry - I didn't make that clear. comp.software.year-2000 isn't a website but a newsgroup. There have been complaints that some ISP's are blocking access to the group. I use Netcom and have never had anything censored as far as I know.

KCT

TZADEAK* -- I agree with the supposition that real interest rates are too high. What do you think will be the reason given for the Fed to lower interest rates? Just curious, speculate at will! :- )

I happen to agree with KCTrader regarding
Y2K, and following similar steps to take
care of my family.
Besides Gary North's discussion forum, you
may want to check out "The Year 2000
Computer Crisis - An Investor's Survival
Guide" by Tony Keyes. Has lots of
background info, a selection of
companies dealing with trying to fix
Y2K ( Viasoft, Data Dimensions, CACI,
Keane, Olsten, Strategia, Zitel to name
a few... ) . Also recommends physical precious
metals, plus silver options ( Dec 98 or 99,
before 2000 - then take possession ) ,
plus taking possession of
Treasury Bills and Bonds in your safety
deposit box, plus safely storing a hard copy of
all important papers ( birth certificates,
medical records, academic records,
insurance policies, bank statements,
passports, wills, deeds, etc. )

BTW, he also has a website at
http://www.y2kinvestor.com/intro.html

No matter what you believe, it is an
interesting read...

EBN has spot gold at $288.42, down 63 cents.

Prediction # 4.As a result of predictions 1,2,& 3 prices for Gold,
Silver, Platinum and Palladium will go up in an orderly and timely
fashion for the most part, however unforseen circumstances such
as,.... OH! OH! my crystal ball is getting really cloudy now I can't quite
see into it, I guess I'll have to come back to the events and numbers
another time. Stay Tuned!

Two articles, part 1 and 2. It makes you wonder who has or is pulling the rug on South Korea, and certainly looks like the Japanese sure do have a fight on their hands. China, lets see what happens after Japan.......

http://home1.pacific.net.sg/~viclim/inv0000c.htm

http://home1.pacific.net.sg/~viclim/inv0000d.htm

Aye, Haggis

UVa 51, AF, NYSE MEMBER firm then gold. Buying, selling and digging.
From Mocatta & Goldsmid to the local bucket shop
I've never found such an erudite group as here.
I appreciate and will try to contribute on the
same level. Hope this will be the best year yet for all.

Hit the submit button to quick. The group just conducted its third quarterly survey of expectations. About 90 responses from mostly geeks with an average of 18 years coding big iron.

1 - ain't gonna happen
3 - bump in the road, 80-100 weeks for all 1999-2001
5 - probable collapse of economy, start hoarding now

The average response was 4.11. What's interesting to note is that the average has moved up both times, if memory serves it was 3.8 in July and 4.02 in September. Another interesting thing is that the most experienced programmers have become decidedly bearish.

Albeit this is not by any means a scientific survey, but the group has tremendous experience and most are engaged in y2k fixit projects now. On a happy note, one guy recently left the IRS and has determined their chances of survival at zero. Most reports indicate that none of the government agencies will make it. They don't seem to see the wisdom of putting their assets in legitimate parts of the government like the DOD. The latest government report said the DOD wouldn't be compliant until 2012. That's a reassuring thought.

KCT

It will go something like this.
AG: After careful review of the intrinsic fundamentals of the US
economy, and accounting for factors which when seasonally
adjusted, confer that monetary aggregate growth targets for
fiscal year 1998, can be upwardly adjusted to better reflect the
apparent disinflationary enviroment as recently evidenced
by the perceived lack of inflationary expectations as reflected in such
items as commodoty prices versus preceived real growth in our economy.

Hey but don't quote me!

From what I read, China will be the least unaffected by Y2K among the global powers. Is that your uderstanding?

I have my hands on his larynx, I press firmly and kill. Camsdesuss. I lean over and through my ear his rumpled body one more time exhorts socialism. I masticate briefly, spit upon the sidewalk and become drenched in the crowd. I never speak further of the joy.

Is anyone else having this problem with staying on the line?

My problem with Keyes is he says you should hold paper. I think the only paper to hold is the title to your land. Government and corporate paper will become worthless. I think farmland is the best investment if you do not want to hold all your assets in metals and tangible goods.

KCT

I've heard the stuff about who will do better, etc. It doesn't matter. When electronic commerce stops, we will drop back a hundred years and see who makes it. China isn't that far ahead of where they were a hundred years ago, it could be an advantage, but I'm not sure what it would be other than the citizens expectations. If everyone is reduced to the lifestyle of a hundred years ago, especially all at once, the developed countries will come apart.

KCT

This is like a Twilight Zone episode, all of a sudden I'm the only one posting.

KCT

How can I change my viewing options? I am stuck to "Oct 1 97". Can not read earlier posts. The year field can not be changed to 98! Anyone else with same problem?