Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 00:02 - ID#344308)


you most certainly are not and i, and probably
few others are willing to attempt typing....must admit the
absolut citron took some wind out of the sails today...

found the post earlier about the failure of delivery on some
gold to EXTREMELY interesting.......

gotta go------the stooges calls------woo-woo-woo-woo-woo-------!; )

PH in LA
(Fri Jan 02 1998 00:05 - ID#225408)
KCT: posting in Twilight Zone?
Is this due to lack of posters? Or is it related to the quasi-Y2K twilight situation that indicates that we are reading and posting ( according to the top of the page ) on 1 Oct 1997 in the here and now with datelines that indicate 1 Jan 98? At any rate KCT, you are not ( completely ) alone.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 00:11 - ID#270165)
PH in LA

Yeah - nobody posted for an hour or so. Relieved to know it's not one of those 'Maple Street' deals.


(Fri Jan 02 1998 00:11 - ID#26669)
Results of a night spent looking through economics links:
There are four major noncatastrophic possibilities for next year ( IMHO )

1 ) deflation

2 ) inflation

3 ) "the right" rate of growth

4 ) stagflation

These are links I thought worth showing which are related at least tangentially to the fourth possibility. Some are trivial, some deep and some just wierd. the last one is definately the wierdest.

goodnight, all and Happy New Year!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 00:24 - ID#256201)
DAVE@CO: Check your email!!
Something re: future conditions.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 00:25 - ID#270165)

I'm showing Hong Kong at 10644 -78, Sydney at 2609.10 -7.4, and Singapore at 421.23 -4.71. I thought these averages were supposed to rally.


(Fri Jan 02 1998 00:30 - ID#31868)
I now have his travel schdule. Dead I tell you, he is mine that French bastard Socialist.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 00:32 - ID#31868)
reading, I assure you, reading.

silver plate
(Fri Jan 02 1998 00:34 - ID#289468)
IN regards to Y2K meltdown. What to do with bookkeeping entry only paper
such as t bills muni's etc. I don't see any alternative except to sell and convert to something else.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 00:42 - ID#227238)
223: Your weird link was from the U of Oregon. ..... As a tax paying citizen of this formerly great state, I regret to inform you that the line of thought ( ?? ) expressed would be considered mainstream hereabouts. And in some quarters even offered to the legislature for implementation.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 00:45 - ID#270165)
silver plate

Yeah - it doesn't make sense that an electronic fiat investment is likely to hold it's value. Government paper is essentially that. When their system quits, their paper will be worthless. I'm a big believer in hard, tangible assets at the moment.


(Fri Jan 02 1998 00:56 - ID#401460)
Clinton Private meeting of 500
Any one know anything about the private/secret meeting that Bill and Hillary are attending this week in the Islands? CEOs and other big shots, seminars etc.? Very Hush Hush. all that the media here reported was that Bill took Buddy and left the Cat home ( not Hillary ) . The press report didn't even question the secret meeting all it was interested in was the Dog ( not Hillary ) .

(Fri Jan 02 1998 01:01 - ID#256201)
HighRise@ renaissance meeting w/ wjbc & 1st sl*t.
It's an annual meeting of the would-be rulers of the world. The elitists, by any one of several names. They all have the same agenda. The absolute control of each thinking productive biped on this planet.
That even includes li'l garrulous boys and carl I toos.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 01:04 - ID#401460)
a.j. (@ renaissance meeting w/ wjbc & 1st sl*t.)
Thanks, do you have any news sites/articles on the meeting.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 01:06 - ID#398105)

Try this URL

save as a "favorite", and use it access January 1998.

Aye, Haggis

(Fri Jan 02 1998 01:06 - ID#270165)
High Rise

Do you think it is remotely possible that these people have figured out their systems are going to quit? I would be willing to bet you the powers that be are coming to this realization. This particular meeting aside, these people have to realize the situation and are likely making their own preparations. We can only imagine what they might be.


(Fri Jan 02 1998 01:08 - ID#402151)
Bible prophecy--electronic money not gold

And now for something completely different:

Contemptuous though I am of fiat currencies, the financial scam artists/politicians, and the investing/speculating mob, I am not at all certain that we are headed for a financial system collapse just yet. Call me looney, but I am a firm believer in the future literal fulfillment of Bible prophecy in the fashion of premillenialists such as the famous Hal Lindsay. ( I disagree with him on the timing of certain events ) .

According to our system of intepreting Bible prophecy, the financial system will be ruined nearly instantly but only after notable events and people make their entrance.
Prior to the final ruin, the entire earth will be embraced by a universal system of money and oppressive financial and political controls that will prohibit any participation in the above-ground economy without the individual possessing the renowned "mark of the beast". It can be deduced from the Book of Revelation that gold will not regain its former power and glory in finance by reason of a world financial system collapse. This is not to say that crises will not occur that may bring renewed respect to the metal. Perhaps the predicted Revelation scenario will be brought about by a desperate world banking system on its last legs. It does not take too much of an imagination ( note the recent hysterical global-warming conference about an as yet non-existant problem ) to see a grateful world swallowing an authoritarian world financial regime's dictates when they are desperate for jobs, food, and social security checks.

My belief in the reliability of Bible prophecy, therefore, makes me certian that gold will not regain its status as the foundation of a sane financial system, but will, at most be of use in an underground economy or as a speculative vehicle.

It is ironic that some of the christian financial and/or prophecy gurus make money off selling precious metals to the gullible or urge them to buy the same, while at the same time publicizing every tidbit that portends the establishing of this monolithic electronic money system which excludes private,portable currencies. If the present embryonic world system endures and becomes the Revelation system, you won't need or be able to use semi-numismatic coins. Unless you are only trading with other rightwingteroristpatriarchalbigoted

Myself, I own some gold and a bunch of silver. It's speculative, it's more difficult to raid my savings, I don't pay real estate taxes on it, and nobody knows how much of it I have. Perhaps in a pinch, a black narket will recognize the value of a silver dollar.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 01:13 - ID#256201)
Elitists' plans for coming era of problems
I have a friend who is worth several millions.
He told me over a year ago of a place in West Texas Barksdale or some sucn name, where persons of the ilk of Mr. Jane Fonda ( Ted Turner ) and many others are buying up large parcels of land. They are fencing them in and walling the shelter compounds up somewhat as did the whites in Kenya during the mau mau days. They will have natural gas, water and all their li'l hearts desire. Landing strips, etc.

Unfortunately, I forget to find means to verify the correctness of the "rumor". Guess I'd otta put it higher on my priority list, eh?

(Fri Jan 02 1998 01:21 - ID#270165)

It turns out even in biblical times that the people realized a scam when they saw it. This easy money/easy credit is not a new idea. I don't think times have changed that much that real money has become worthless.


(Fri Jan 02 1998 01:37 - ID#347457)
Kitco is experiencing the problem very similar to Y2K
OK, all of you non-believer in Y2K problem. At this point of time Kitco is experiencing one of the typical date processing software failures which you will see when we cross year 2000 boundaries.
From this point on, until Kitco staff correct the software, you will not be able to access any 1998 posts from the previous day. You can access the current day posts ( e.g. today posts - January 2, 1998, but not posts from January 1, 1998 ) .

Selection of posts is based on three months fixed time window ( not a sliding window based on a current date ) and until this window is updated for January 1998 we are out of luck. Year 2000 problem is similar because most of the dates are based on fixed 100 year window ( 1900 -1999 ) .

OK, Kitco problem is easy to fix, and it is just inconvenience to Kitco participants. However, use a bit of imagination. E.g., your system is receiving purchase orders, invoices, requests to turn on/off utility, or its just records when the maintenance is suppose to be done ( just like Kitco receiving posts from its participants ) .

Some other program processes these requests based on a specific date when the purchase order is supposed to be fulfilled, invoice supposed to be paid, your phone to be turned on/off, or maintenance to be performed.

Well, guess what, date does not match because its out of its 100 year window and purchase order is not fulfilled, invoice is not paid, maintenance is not performed, etc. etc.. Fixing this problem in complex system is much more difficult that in Kitco case, and consequences are much more serious.

I saw all these problems in systems we have examined and though the implementation is different than in Kitco case the logic which leads to this problem is the same. Well the Kitco problem is easy to recognize, the system and its use is interactive and participants see that there is something wrong. Unfortunately, in most of the systems this processing goes behind the scene, computer does all the work without flashing incorrect results on screens across the world. Make you own conclusion what kind of disruption it can bring to our computerized economy.

Thank you Kitco staff for making a demonstration of the date processing problem similar to Y2K issue.
BTW, your implementation is sloppy ;- ) , Your date table used in selecting old posts should be updated automatically using a sliding window approach and using the current system date as a sliding window pivot.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 01:58 - ID#42371)
You couldn't get on Kitco? I couldn't get on the net for the last hour.
Good night all. I wish Comex was closed tomorrow, then I wouldn't to check it ASAP in the am and....

(Fri Jan 02 1998 02:07 - ID#335190)
January 1, 1998
Consolidated Nevada misses gold payment

DENVER, Jan 1 ( Reuters ) - Consolidated Nevada Goldfields Corp said it has not made the scheduled principal payment of 2,611 troy ounces of gold due on December 31, 1997 to ING Capital Corp and is now in discussions with its lendor.

In addition, the international mining company said its previously announced negotiations with a major shareholder to obtain sufficient funds to restructure its operations and debt are continuing.

In a seperate development, Consolidated said it has entered into an option and sale agreeement with a third party for the sale of the mining assets of Barita de Sonora, S.A. de C.V., a Mexican barite operation which sells barite to the petroleum industry.

Company spokesmen were not immediately available to provide further information.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 02:12 - ID#335190)
January 1, 1998
Nepal to allow businesses to tap foreign markets

KATHMANDU, Nepal ( Reuters ) - Nepal plans to allow its business houses to borrow from international capital markets at low interest rates, the Himalayan kingdom's central bank governor said late Wednesday.

Nepali businesses currently borrow in the domestic market, where interest rates are as high as 15 percent.

Satyendra Pyara Shrestha, governor of the Nepal Rastra Bank ( NRB ) , told Reuters the move was aimed at making the economy more competitive."Our priority is ... the development of the export sector so that it grows the capacity to repay," Shrestha said.

Nepal's exports grew 13.9 percent to $394.4 million in the financial year ending mid-July 1997, while imports rose 25.1 percent to $1.6 billion. That left a $1.2 billion deficit, a rise of 29 percent over the previous year.

Bank officials said interest rates on treasury bills had fallen to around 3 percent from 11 percent in the past five months and that banks had excess liquidity due to slackness in the economy.

Nepal is one of the world's 10 poorest countries with per capita GNP of $200 a year. More than 60 percent of the cost of its economic development comes from Western donors.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 02:18 - ID#335190)
January 1, 1998
Central Asia steps onto world stage

ALMATY, Kazakhstan ( Reuters ) - The Dutch nickname for the clutch of former Soviet republics in Central Asia is "verwegistan" -- "farawaystan."

But a slew of multibillion-dollar oil contracts and increased confidence in dueling with big brother Russia mean the region's dust-blown deserts and wolf-inhabited steppes are no longer a blank on the investor's map.

Travel in the five republics -- Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan -- still involves trial and a lot of error.

It is almost impossible to get a hotel room in Akmola, Kazakhstan's newly proclaimed capital on its freezing northern steppe, because they are full of homeless bureaucrats arriving by train from the old capital, Almaty.

A British Airways jet planning to fly direct from Almaty to London in December ended up stopping in Moscow because the oil-rich country's airport had run out of fuel.

The start of real foreign investment, a halt to runaway inflation and relative political stability has officials optimistic.

Kazakhstan appeared as a small blip on the emerging markets radar screen with a $200 million Eurobond issue last December.

By November 1997, when Kazakh President Nursultan Nazabayev met President Clinton in Washington and signed two large production sharing deals for oil and gas with two Western consortiums, risk-hungry investors had their eye on Central Asia.

"I was in the States with the president and it's clear they know who we are now. We are their new strategic partner," said a senior Kazakh editor on a pro-government newspaper.

Sitting cross-legged in a sauna in Almaty's Arasan baths, sweat running over his paunch, he made a proud reference to the big cat that stalks the Tien Shan mountains above the city. "We won't be an Asian tiger but an Asian snow leopard," he said.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 02:19 - ID#335190)
Good Night

(Fri Jan 02 1998 02:50 - ID#401460)
Van Eck Hard Assets fund
IMHO-It looks like the S&P is headed for a tumble. The Fund appears to lead the S&P, and the last two days confirm a continuing downtrend. Deflation for now, which will or could eventually create possible drop in confidence in the US$ and Bonds. Note the 30 yr. bonds are moving back to 6%.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 02:52 - ID#401460)
Van Eck Hard Assets Fund

(Fri Jan 02 1998 03:03 - ID#401460)
It is my understanding that Henry Ford through a party for 200 of the riches people in the country the night before the 29 Crash. I am not sure what the occasion for the celebration was.

It really seems strange that so many ( 500 couples I think ) important people meet on a major family weekend to play golf, attend seminars and pet their dog on the same Island.
No reports as to who is attending other than those Slick is playing golf with upon his arrival.
The CEO of CBS is one.

All the press talks about is the police who are on strike in Saint Croix, Slicks Dog and the Cat he left back home - the press is pathetic, here is a big story and they are writing about the stupid Dog.

Good Night ALL

(Fri Jan 02 1998 03:08 - ID#401460)
When they return, we will have to ask Bart and the other Kitco people, who may have attended,what they are planning to do with Gold over the next 6 months. [ :- ) ) =

(Fri Jan 02 1998 03:22 - ID#252127)
Forget about elitist meetings. Get real

The big question is; can the country with the worlds largest per capita debt be considered as the anchor for the world monetary system? Add the perpetual balance of payments deficit any false hype about inflation and a balanced budget. It seems to me that gold will win the battle as the currency of last resort.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 03:54 - ID#335184)
I'm sure all remember the hysterical speculation last year associated with IMF proposed sale of AU to create fund to "help developing nations".
This event was very publicly held in the air for a prolonged time & then it was stated that the matter was tabled by a single vote. I think the US was in favor & Nipon said no. Now Swiss AU sale [& bogus rumors of CB sale activity] starting in 99 proposed with virtually no credibility is I suppose intended to keep the lid on price while the CBs' figure out how they are going to recover the 8000 Ts "lent" to the speculative market. The AU is gone & they're holding paper promises for the return of this AU. Where will it come from, if at all, & at what price ???
In my holy opinion, we are not being reminded of the IMF AU hoard just now because the prime political agenda for these smarmy bastards right now is to get the US & Nipon taxpayer to bail out the merchant banker brotherhood & they don't want to remind us, the truly poor bastards, of this largess while they brow beat &/or induce our ignorant &/or corrupt elected officials to vote umpteen billions to replenish their arsenal to pay for the terrific carnage brought on by the profligacy & resulting bankruptcy of the economies receiving the rediculous over extensions of credit from their merchant banking brothers.
It seems rather queer that while even Germany has admitted to major participation in the leasing of AU, no major CB or world institution has sold AU in 97 ! Yet the CB's /US FED/TREASURY seem content with driving down the price of AU, a self-defeating process, which can only be sustained by ever increasing AU leasing activity or sales which make the liklyhood of ever receiving their AU back from their speculative tenants even more fantastically improbable !
Could ths be a prelude to a spiral down to a cocked spring leading to either confiscation at a price acceptable to the government or devaluation of the US $ or a recoil of epic strength in AU price ?
IMHO, confiscation would only be used in last resort in response to total collapse of $ &/or systemic national & International banking failure.
As Marvin Gay would say, "What's going on ???". I'm not prepared to entertain the notion of CB stupidity, but perhaps sheer ignorance of the magnitude of the size of the lease overhang /"short trap that has been laid by the unpublished lease trade figures collectively generated by the CBs'has caught them unaware of this approaching debacle, while at this critical time it has served all the great powers [US-EURO-NIPON] to ensure a strong US $ and the necessary inflows of world capital required to sustain this impressive levitation act known as the US Bond & Stock market ! My guess is that the up-surge in price will occur in steady lurches as the $ reacts to trade imbalance realities, Asian deflation, M3 mega inflation, & repatriation of capital to a bankrupt Japan.
NO ONE wants a weak currency to act as the World Reserve currency ! AU is the only currency or reserve currency which in any real sense could be considered universal. Placing the US $ in this role as the ultimate arbitor and store of value of world commerce, trade & finance is doomed to fail. How long will the US have the power to force the world to accept this hedgmoney ??? How wise or rather antique a notion that this "thing" should be shouldered by merely the BIGGEST or strongest player on the scene in the international game known idealy as free market capitalism ? Shouldn't all the players play with same dice ? Would you play Monopoly with a guy who had unfettered acces to the bank and also controlled the real purchasing power of the funds you were using to try to concour the board with ?
My belief is that the US could not & would not put down this burden even if it wanted to. The only thing the world hates more than US world hedgemoney is the lack of it ! The only alternative would be to submit to a another reserve fiat currency [unthinkable] or toreturn to the simple, but elegant AU standard [unthinkable] ! My guess is that the denuding in US$ will more or less coincide with the wheels popping of the EURO like they use to pop off the YUGO, causing AU to jump through the roof-o.

"Whats going on my fellow KITCOITES ???"

Y.O.S. - Tar Baby

(Fri Jan 02 1998 04:26 - ID#252127)

I don't believe that gold confiscation is in the cards. In 1933 US Gold Money was pleantiful rightfully in 'hidden' circulation and pleanty held in the vaults of banks.
Today we have US bullion coins, but not near the amount of gold money that was around in the thirties.
Considering all the bad press about the yellow one can postulate that Americans holding bullion is at a low ebb.
My conclusion is that there is not enough gold in US hands to make it worth their while to confiscate
It is my hopefully opinion, that when the US finally realizes we must have a non-fiat currency, massive incentative benfits will be given to miners of gold and silver. I quess one can say DREAM ON JACK.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 04:30 - ID#252127)

I don't believe that gold confiscation is in the cards. In 1933 US Gold Money was plentiful and rightfully in 'a hidden circulation'. Much was also held in the vaults of banks.
Today we have the non circulating US bullion coins, but not near in the amount of gold money that was around in the thirties.
Considering all the bad press about the yellow one can postulate that Americans holding bullion is at a low ebb.
My conclusion is that there is not enough gold in US hands to make it worth their while to confiscate
It is my hopefully opinion, that when the US finally realizes we must have a non-fiat currency, massive incentative benfits will be given to miners of gold and silver. I quess one can say DREAM ON JACK.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 05:02 - ID#335184)
I agree confiscation is not likly, but consider that there is estimated to be 132 K Tons of total AU extant in the world and CB's only hold 28 K T. The real $64 K ? is how much of the stuff would they need to replace all currencies or establish an AU standard that was not too deflationay ?
Alan Greenspan is one of the most intelligent & educated men in public policy, & I believe to be a closet AUBUG, but he doesn't control monetary policy himself, single handedly,any more than you or I do [How much money,paper, credit or as he calls it "Lubricant" does the US or the wrld need ???] & I'm sure that if the US GOV-Treasury wanted to confiscate AU he could not & would not stop them or even be able to give thm an intelligent guess as to the answer to the $64 K ? stated above.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 06:09 - ID#328159)
Reading earlier posts
Kitco has a Year 1998 bug! The page is stuck at "Oct 1 97", you can't read earlier posts, and there's no '98! Fear not, for I have made a temporary mirror web page which can be found at:

until Kitco's programmers fix their problem.

This is an excellent illustration of the kind of trouble we can expect in year 2000- ( did Kitco do it on purpose? ) . Now you can go back to Fri Jan 02 1998 01:37 and read Miro's interesting piece on Y2K.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 06:58 - ID#33164)
CJS- Thank you - Your 6:09 But is no-one else posting??
Am I lost in cyberspace? Gee!! And Oh MY, EB!! Don't you have a white charger or similar?

Neil- [ @Jhbg??} Thanks so much for SOROS info- I shall try at Exclusive Books tomorrow. We're having the most wonderful rain- soft and constant, and making everything clean and shiny for the New Year!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 07:08 - ID#364147)
@ Cape B.S.
Mornin 'you all'~~~~~~~~

Mike Sheller
(Fri Jan 02 1998 07:16 - ID#347447)
Y K(Kitco)1998
A bit chilly for October, wouldn't you say Ted?

(Fri Jan 02 1998 07:19 - ID#36965)
Joke of the morning
Morning Ted. It doesn't look like the markets are such as to want to get out of bed. I think I'll go back for a little extra siesta. Here a joke to get you all started this morning.

An old Jewish man was once on the subway and he sat down next to a younger man. He noticed that the young man had a strange kind of shirt
collar. Having never seen a priest before, he asked the man, "Excuse me sir, but why do you have your shirt collar on backwards?"

The priest became a bit flustered but politely answered "I wear this collar because I am a Father".

The Jewish man thought a second and responded, "Sir I am also a Father but I wear my collar front-ways. Why do you wear your collar so

The priest thought for a minute and said "Sir, I am the father
for many".

The Jewish man quickly answered, "I to am the father of
many. I have four sons, four daughters and too many grandchildren to count. But I wear my collar like everyone else does. Why do you wear it your way?"

The priest who was beginning to get exasperated thought and then blurted
out "Sir, I am the father for hundreds and hundreds of

The Jewish man was taken aback and was silent for a long time. As he got
up to leave the subway train, he leaned over to the priest and said
"Mister, maybe you should wear your pants backwards."

(Fri Jan 02 1998 07:21 - ID#36965)
Mike Sheller
Mike, the chill of a cold October morn is a chill that cuts to the quick. I think I'll hibernate for three months and then come out and see if I can see my shadow.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 07:28 - ID#38970)
Yes in the rain too!
Colleen. If you have read chap 2 of the Alch. of Finance look at share price graphs of Didata and Advtech - I believe good current SA examples of the equity leverege self-fulfilling prophecy. They would indicate Didata is about to head south and that Advtech has another step down soon. Also see the $/DM chart for the typical process after reading chapter on currencies. Shout if you need help with charts - Sharenet have a free service.

I am an ex-Capetonian in JHB. I must be a contrarian as the herd seems to be going the other way. Perfect weather to remind me of home. Later. Snooze time!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 07:30 - ID#36965)
Morning markets
It looks like all that good old USA money being infused into the Orient is picking those old markets up briskly this morning. I fear that Dracula is going to walk the nights seeking additional blood though and the blood banks may run dry with much of this. Would they bail out the USA if the shoe were on the other foot? Why do we weaken our economy in this manner?

(Fri Jan 02 1998 07:30 - ID#364147)
It appears I won round one of my battle with the Sydney 'legal eagles'-the judge and as of NOW the house sale is still on.....

(Fri Jan 02 1998 07:31 - ID#426220)
YEAR END MARKET REVIEW Current Fundamentals

Dr. Thomas Drake generously shares with the GOLD-EAGLE readership a synopsis of his erudite and comprehensive YEAR END MARKET REVIEW.

It is indeed a perceptive and incisive analysis... must reading for the serious market student and professional. Also, very illuminating are the two 23-year charts of GOLD and the US Dollar.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 07:33 - ID#93232)
Have last night's postings been hauled to the cyber dump?

(Fri Jan 02 1998 07:34 - ID#36965)
Ted-re: your judge
Ted, I'm glad that your judge is not shafting you yet. The deck work will keep him on board. Regarding judges I read the following the other day. An expert is a person who knows more and more about less and less until he knows a lot about nothing. A lawyer is a person who know very little about an increasing amount of things until he knows nothing about everything. A judge is aflicted because he knows so many experts and lawyers.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 07:42 - ID#33164)
Neil - Lots of Soros titles on this very good Amazon Book site below is an amazing site -seemsto have just about every title in existence. And they will even try to find titles out of print etc!

Neil- lucky you! A snooze?!! Thanks for offer of help with charts!

My husband's also from CT, and the boys were at Bishops. Are you also an O.D? You'll find me . And I am really just 'colleen'!!


(Fri Jan 02 1998 07:49 - ID#364147)
Cape Breton logic(???) .................and Tort you have MAIL
Remember the storm Posted about a few days ago--where it blew like hell and a few inches of rain poured down....Well,in the past when it was raining our newspaper ( Cape Breton Post ) delivery person would put the papers in a plastic bag so they wouldn't get soaked---Well for some reason they didn't this time and the damn thing was so wet we couldn't read it but I just let it go but when on the next day ( without a god damn cloud in the sky ) they put the paper in plastic---I snapped! and called the circulation dept. and said yesterday in the pouring rain you didn't bag the paper and today with a totally sunny day you bagged it---what's the story I asked----she said "you ask me"----this is a good example of what daily life ( ??? ) is like in Cape ScrewBALL....Common sense and attention to detail are not part of the 'reality' here~~~~~~

(Fri Jan 02 1998 07:51 - ID#426220)
NEW YEARS MUSINGS: More Tears Than Joy

Southeast Asian Cuurencies Begin 1998 SHARPLY DOWN!

John Kutyn is undoubtedly one of last years most brilliant and perceptive analysts on the Domino Effect sweeping through Southeast Asia. His insightful take on currency chaos and stock market turmoil paint a grim picture of what the new year holds for the countries of that area... indeed what the ramifications are for the rest of the world. Following are a few of his random thoughts on the area. Additionally, he shares his opinion of the precarious condition of the Japanese Banking System, and what we might brace ourselves for in 1998.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 07:53 - ID#364147)
Mike Sheller..............................and brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Yeah,I'm still waiting for 'Indian summer'

(Fri Jan 02 1998 07:58 - ID#93232)
@to the three living kitcoites....somebody say something stupid(illiteration accidentalus)...
The "M" in IMF stands for moot. T#1, talking to Camdessus would be like spilling your guts to a 22-year old loan officer. The loan committee is the rub...and they're unavailable at the moment.
Unless the IMF can come up with a new attractive currency of their own...they are henceforth relegated to irrelevance. Hell, they're broke.
T#1, show pity for the broke dingbat...or better yet, ( thumb's down..."Run him through!"

(Fri Jan 02 1998 08:17 - ID#93232)
RE: confiscation of gold....
If someone comes for my gold....they'll get lead instead. I'm now going to write a blues song...adios mi amigos.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 08:20 - ID#426220)

Russia Latest Victim of the Domino Effect

A la Banana Republic, Russia replaces old rouble by whacking three zeros off old currency!

Hopes are high that the new rouble will help the Russian economy

In an attempt to bolster its ailing economy Russia is to replace its currency, the rouble.

Each of the new coins, called the 'new rouble', is worth 1,000 old roubles and the move is expected to help curb runaway inflation.

Unspoken reason for draconian measure was the fact that money numbers became so large ( too many digits ) that figures would no longer fit into hand calculators. This would be funny, if it were not true.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 08:21 - ID#426220)
The Year Ahead by the Astrological Investor

Mike Sheller kicks off the New Year with both a warning list of potential hotspots around the world, as well as his campy tribute to magazine horoscopes ( HEY-HEY, check out what the stars hold for YOU in 1998 ) . However, the serious business comes first, as he takes a look at some national horoscopes ( from Cambodia to the USA ) for some clues to future activities, which may affect the financial markets:

(Fri Jan 02 1998 08:27 - ID#426220)
STUDIO.R & Tolerant1: The acronym IMF really stands for INTERNATIONAL "MONOPOLY" FINANCING

(Fri Jan 02 1998 08:32 - ID#93232)
@VRONSKY.....thank God you're here!
Yea! And Candickus just drew "Do not pass GO". How about the banana pudding?...please,please,please....Oooowwwllll! James Brown....Papa's Got a Brand New Bag.... ( and in the case of's empty )

(Fri Jan 02 1998 08:51 - ID#93232)
@What haveth God wrought?....from the Earlacle of Kitco.....
I embarked on a devasting study some weeks back, and, although the numbers are still a little rough, I have determined that all continents will soon collapse into the sea due to the exponentially increasing weight of boogers. It is imperative that we discover a new method of disposal...Nasa where are you?...this is urgent...albeit, disgusting.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 08:57 - ID#177109)
intergalactic booger mavens (IBM)
reminds me of the film, "the loved one", wherein ( whereout? ) the deceased loved one is launched into orbit.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 09:03 - ID#341214)
vertigo, all
All: I got the silver article below off of FWN.

vertigo: I think the best way to take advantage of the coming
Y2K problems is to be in silver. Silver's fundaMETALs are good
and the price will get an extra push in 1999 from Y2K panic buying.

Currently, I'm looking for a peak of about $7.25-7.50 then a
retracement to the 5.25-$5.50 area. We ought to see those events
in the first half of 1998. Then it's back up from there.



FWN: 191152 GMT

FWN 1998 Silver Outlook: Prices Could Reach $7
an Ounce

-- Many analysts look for silver to reach $7 an ounce
-- Declining warehouse stocks, other inventories cited as
key fundamental influence
-- Analysts say industrial demand on the rise
-- Consortium pushing prices higher, some say

By Allen Sykora
FWN Staff Writer
-- Editor's note: This is one in a series of FWN 1998 market

that silver, which enjoyed healthy gains in the final
months of 1997, will continue to rise in 1998, perhaps above
$7 an ounce.
Many point to the drawdown in warehouse inventories,
saying they expect this to continue in the new year. They
say that fabrication of the metal is booming and inventory
levels are reaching critical levels.
Some analysts are leary of the possibility that market
manipulation might be going on, and that some of this
disappearing silver just might show up again some day. But
even some of these analysts look for silver to continue
going higher, at least for awhile.
As silver has been climbing, market watchers repeatedly
have been pointing to declines in COMEX warehouse stocks,
which have gone from around 205 million ounces back in June
to around 110 million ounces in December. Silver has gone
from around $4.25 in July to just shy of $6.40 in December,
before scaling back to around $6 in the final days of the
"I feel with the drawdown, which will probably continue
somewhat, that the silver could trade between $7.25 and
$7.50 by mid-year," said Don Tierney, precious metals
analyst at Pell Brothers Trading.
"The warehouse stocks will be a key factor, along with
the continued demand from the electronics and the jewelry
and the photographic businesses."
"It's going to go higher," echoed Joseph Rosta,
research director at CPM Group. "There's no question it's
going to go higher. The price is poised to make a jump now.
Seven dollars is a reasonable target and $8 is not
"Demand is very strong. Inventories have been worked
down to fairly critical levels now. You're seen enormous
current-year deficits of supply relative to
Some market watchers say a consortium has been driving
prices higher and that it will continue to do so, at least
in the early part of the year.

"The big unknown about silver prices during 1998 is
what the so-called consortium will do and how high they will
be able to raise prices against a backdrop of falling Indian
demand and rising production," said Ted Arnold, Merrill
Lynch metals specialist, in his outlook for the new year.
"But our guess at present is they will be able to drive
prices up to the $7-an-ounce level, basis spot, during the
course of 1998."
But while Arnold looks for silver to climb as high as
$7, he also cautioned that in the second half of the year, a
"bear market may begin to set in with a vengeance."
Still other analysts question whether silver will go
that much higher at all.
"I don't see much really happening," said Peter
Cardillo, director of research for Westfalia Investments.
The upper end of his projected range for 1998 is $6.50. "I
believe the market is basically being held up
He said he envisions an economic slowdown in which
jewelry and silverware demand will decline.
As for the decline in COMEX stocks, he continued:
"That's warehouses. I don't put much credence into that,
because this has happened in the past. For a couple of
months, they disappear. Then they wind up someplace
One key question, pointed out Arnold, will be
consumption by India, particularly after a devaluation of
its currency.
"At some point, prices in the West could reach such
high levels that the Indians will start to export silver
again to the West," he said. But, he continued, "Our sources
in Dubai suspect that the price needed to start to dislodge
silver within India and bring it out is above $7.
"But even if the Indians aren't selling silver back to
the West in any volume before $7 an ounce, they certainly
won't be buying it in anything like the quantities they did
in 1997."
Some analysts said that while they look for silver to
continue rising, it may pause before building upon some of
its recent gains.
"Overall, silver still has some room to the upside, but
the upside has happened too fast and I think it needs some
more work...." said Tierney.
William Byers, chief futures strategist at Bear
Stearns, said the recent run-up in silver "may be a little
"But can it go higher? Sure," he continued.

One trade source, who said he believes that silver
prices are up because of the decline in warehouse stocks,
nevertheless said he would feel more comfortable with
silver's December gains if it was more clear where this
silver was going. For instance, he said, it would be
reassuring if the market knew for sure, say, that the silver
was being used to make Princess Diana commemorative plates,
rather than being stored somewhere only to show up again
some day.
Rosta maintained silver is, in fact, being
"In our discussions with the refiners and first-stage
fabricators--the ones who make the wires and bars and so
forth that is used by the manufacturers--they can't keep up
with the orders from the photo industry and the jewelry
industry and the electronics industry," said Rosta. "They're
having difficulty keeping up, because demand is so
Besides reported stock figures from COMEX and the Tokyo
exchange, there are a number of other unreported stocks--
including London, Zurich and elsewhere in the United
"We have come up with our own estimates of these
stocks, and they are at very low levels," said Rosta. "They
are definitely at the lowest levels since 1950 and may be at
their lowest levels since the 1870s."
Figures from CPM Group show that silver has been in
deficit every year since the 1990s began, with the deficit
hovering around 200 million troy ounces each year since
1993. Several analysts also pointed out that the Silver
Institute's figures have shown that above-ground demand has
not been able to keep up with in-ground production for
several years in a row.
"Now you have a situation where the outstanding ( COMEX )
stocks, which were 200 million, are down to 110 million,"
said Tierney. "So that tells me there is still more room on
the upside for silver."
Monthly Commerce Department figures show that silver is
leaving the United States for destinations such as the Far
East, United Kingdom, Mideast and Switzerland, said
As he spoke in the days between Christmas and New
Year's, Tierney pointed out that open interest in March
silver was nearly 70,000 contracts, yet the COMEX warehouse
stocks on hand were only equivalent to around 22,000.
Furthermore, he said, some of the 110 million ounces that
are on hand are probably not even available for delivery,
because it's being stored for long-term safekeeping or
obligated against outstanding loans. He added that some
silver in banks has old markings so that it may no longer
even comply with delivery requirements.
He also pointed out that a couple of major banks are no
longer depositories for silver, presumably because the
quantities had become so small that they were having trouble
covering costs.

However, others, such as Arnold, suggest supplies may
actually be "much larger than is thought." Otherwise, he
suggested, "prices would have risen sharply some time
He offered two theories on why supplies may be larger
than most believe.
"The first is that silver stocks accumulated from the
recent past are truly massive," he said. "For example,
between 1979 and 1990, there were 11 years of abundant
supply with the market running a cumulative surplus of
25,000 to 30,000 tonnes ( metric tons ) . And before that, the
market drew on the gigantic 90,000 tonnes of U.S. government
stocks which were built up between 1933 and 1961 under the
producer-lobbied silver acquisition program.
"The second explanation is that supplies are
understated. The statistics probably fail to capture all the
by-product and scrap production.
"We think the answer lies with both explanations, i.e.,
that stocks are very much higher than anyone thinks and that
supplies are higher than the statistics show."
Analysts listed factors which could both hurt and help
silver production in 1998.
Tierney explained silver production could dip if there
were to be a decline in gold and copper mining due to
plunges in the prices of those metals. He pointed that the
bulk of silver that is mined is a residual by-product of
mining for other metals, such as gold and copper.
"There aren't many places where they mine silver and
just silver alone."
However, Arnold pointed out extra silver might be
forthcoming from restarts of lead and zinc mines around the
world. He added that full production is expected from BHP's
Cannington mine in Australia, and that recent price hikes in
silver could prompt primary producers in Mexico, Peru and
the United States to "crank up" production.
On another subject, Rosta forecast an increase in
investment demand for gold in 1998, with an increase in
silver investment demand also likely.
"A lot of investors view silver as a surrogate for
gold," he explained. "And the same factors that apply to
gold investment demand also apply to silver.
"Obviously, its role as a commodity is a lot more
important and makes silver even more attractive at this
point to investors."
Byers, meanwhile, noted that economic weakness in
Southeast Asia eventually might hurt silver prices, as it
has other metals.
"I'm actually a little bit surprised that it hasn't
impacted silver more than it has," he continued. "But that
may prove to be a drag on silver as well.
"Economic weakness and effective deflation not only
hurts industrial demand, but it hurts people's inclination
to hoarde."


( c ) Copyright 1997 FWN

(Fri Jan 02 1998 09:35 - ID#398105)
Soros, Rothchild, Gold and Debt.................or merely fiction

Given that the gold future/derivative markets are unregulated, nobody
really knows what is going on apart from the enlightened few. In one
scenario, the Central Banks have loaned paper gold to their Commercial
Bank and Dealer off springs, who have in turn cashed in and reinvested
the cash onto other markets, with payment of the paper gold loans still
outstanding to the Central Banks. So the Commercial Banks require the
price of physical gold to be kept low, in order to defer "return" of the
gold to the Central Banks. This gold has "gone", it may not still be
bullion. So we have outstanding physical gold, and cash which has been
re-invested in the market. The Commercial Banks, in theory, do not have
a problem as long as the "pool of gold liquidity" is maintained by the
Central Banks, and the gold price remains below the Commercial Banks
payment threshold. In theory the Central Banks could sell off all their
gold, and keep the Commercial Banks happy.
However, competition is a wonderful and terrible thing. Clearly, with
the Asian financial problem, the Commercial Banks have a growing problem
of default of payment on their investments, which may in turn cause
default on the paper gold transactions. The physical vacuum of gold
caused by derivative/future tradings is reported as 8 000 tonnes ( may
be larger or smaller ) , potentially three years world production. By
the volume of the gold market relative to the money market, the gold
problem may be more of a problem to solve, as gold is rare relative to
paper money - on default a gold roll over may not be possible. What
happens when you default on a derivative/future - like anything else
"the Bank" will default you and possibly own you, in other words
defaulting on gold is an easier issue for a preditor bank to absorb you.
The roll over of financial and gold "debt" could be rolled over and
over.......BUT there has to be someone somewhere who can either corner
the gold market and/or make a fast big quid. So, why would Mr Soros pop
his head up now with the concept of an International Loan Guarantee
Institution, a "rival" to the IMF who may or may not be in a position to
embrace the current financial defaults. It must be remembered that the last time Soros popped up his head was in early 1993 when China was rumoured to be buying gold, what happen the gold price went skyward. Now, Japan is rumoured to be buying gold - what might happen!!!Does it makes sense to suggest that Mr Soros and his mentors the Rothchilds propose to establish a Bank of Last Resorted which would form a haven for all or selected Central Banks ( including South Korea and Japan, but not necessarily China ) .The Europeans may not be expected to want the Dollar to back the Euro, and a portfolio of currencies and gold will. Mr Soros is more than happy to change direction in mid stream - money made taking gold down, now money to be made by taking gold up and at the same time acquire the now open infrastructure of nations ( eg South Korea, possibly Japan...... ) I still believe that Rothchilds want to create new markets for gold, and simply put if it is required to deflate economies along the way to establish these new gold markets then it will be done. I cannot see the Dollar remaining all embracing at the expense of gold, particularly since it has/is Rothchilds historical growth has been primarily from gold as a tool. This tool may be the passport to the new club of International Loan Guarantee Institution. If you have got gold you are in, if you don't well sorry mate.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 09:54 - ID#333447)
UVa 51, AF, NYSE MEMBER firm then gold. Buying, selling and digging.
From Mocatta & Goldsmid to the local bucket shop
I've never found such an erudite group as here.
I appreciate and will try to contribute on the
same level. Hope this will be the best year yet for all.

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Fri Jan 02 1998 10:03 - ID#18385)
Slight relief from the Y1.998K problem
This location will let you see some of what's been missing, but you can't post from there yet.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 10:04 - ID#426220)

Flight Capital Fuels 15-Year-Old Bull Market

Although Rick Ackermans article was published in a major US newspaper a couple of weeks old, it nevertheless provides some interesting insights to the US market and world problems, which undoubtedly will have an impact in 1998.

With Asia's financial markets festering seemingly beyond remedy, Japan mired in near-depression, and the locomotive economy of South Korea in danger of seizing, why has Wall Street barely flinched?

(Fri Jan 02 1998 10:05 - ID#283199)
default on gold payments (all)

(Fri Jan 02 1998 10:07 - ID#333131)
STUDIO R, Warning, Don't talk publicly about the booger problem!
Actually I did extensive research on the booger problem a few years ago, much to my regret. I discovered a brilliant researcher at the U of British Columbia who had actually built and patented a booger fueled auto, and then followed it up with a booger powered electrical generator. Being a stickler for detail, he waited too long to go public and the Saudis kidnapped his wife and children and forced him to sell out. I'm living in constant dread knowing that they know I did this research and have since changed my middle initial and moved down the street. This seems to have thrown them off the trail. Be careful, these people are nothing to sneeze at.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 10:11 - ID#287207)
El Nino --and Crepe Hangers Alert
Ted: I think your problem is that you are in a time warp. You think its 1998 but everyone around is working like its 1760--just like their grand dad. Its about 45 or so in Toronto and so far less snow than the Carolinas. Lots of friends and neighbours now in or en route to Florida --hope they don't get stuck or shot. C$ now above US$ 70.25. Going to call Lands End and L L Bean and lock in a few low priced bargains.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 10:30 - ID#426220)

MJb4u ( default on gold payments ( all ) :

THIS IS MONUMENTAL NEWS! It is testament to the well-grounded suspicions of many experts that there will many GOLD LOAN DEFAULTS, forcing the Central Banks and large commercial banks to EAT the Gold Loans extended. Please recall ING is the large international group which picked up Barings Bank's marbles when it failed a couple or so years ago due to non-traditional banking operations and a rogue trader!!! This was a 200 year-old English bank.

Is this the first crack in the dike which WILL cause the deluge run on GOLD, as frantic international bankers and Central Bankers begin to cover their very exposed financial BUTTS? Gold Loans/Leasing is considered by many as NOT CONSERVATIVE NOR TRADITIONAL BANKING OPERATIONS.

This is transcendental news which eventually may spark a sea-change in the heretofore traditional investment paradigm. See original announcement:

(Fri Jan 02 1998 10:37 - ID#426220)

Noted ORACLE OF HONG KONG, Milhouse, provides yet another astute and insightful critique of the Nippon Financial Malaise. Milhouse is decidedly bearish, and feels the rapidly falling Nikkei is going to get a lot worse before it gets any better!

In Japan, the economic recession continues relentlessly. Furthermore, major falls in the stock market appear very likely in 1998, wiping out whatever capital remains in the troubled Japanese institutions.

I believe there is a greater chance that the Japanese people will start accumulating GOLD to protect their substantial savings...

Milhouses clear-sighted and perceptive report may be found at:

(Fri Jan 02 1998 10:40 - ID#41149)
Vronsky - dropping zeros
VRONSKY --- The same thing is planned for the USA. This is why Gold Eagle bullion coins have $50 stamped on them. They are legal tender. One day when gold is trading at $5000 or $50000 an ounce and we are experiancing RUN AWAY INFLATION, they will just drop off a few zeros and put us on a gold standard. At that time the majority of transactions will be taking place electronically so very little personal "CASH" will be neccessary.

Date: Fri Jan 02 1998 08:20


"A la Banana Republic, Russia replaces old rouble by whacking three zeros off old currency!"

"Each of the new coins, called the 'new rouble', is worth 1,000 old roubles and the move is expected to help curb runaway inflation."

(Fri Jan 02 1998 10:54 - ID#344308)

sell-off coming in grains-----again---

+2 and counting---------

the calm before the hurricane
with force 6 heading into has a map
leading to the us.......

whatcha' gonna do when they come for you?

(Fri Jan 02 1998 11:00 - ID#426220)

About the Author: In 1965 Joseph Miller became a member of the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He was active in the exchange during the time Currency Futures and Interest Rate Futures were introduced by the Exchange, and served on the Board of Governors of the Exchange for ten years.

Much has been made of the downward plunge in gold prices during 1996 and 1997. Monetary officials as well as government officials around the world have advertised the fact and led the public at large to believe that this drop is an indication that fiat
megabyte money is "King of the Hill", that all is well with our
monetary system, and that we will all live happily ever after. It is the author's hope that THIS PAPER HAS DISPELLED THIS MYTH in the mind's of the people who read it.

Analyst Miller sees regent years IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE in paper assets ( stocks & bonds ) as a new chapter for the classic work Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. He, like George Bernard Shaw, votes for GOLD:

"If you have to choose between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability and intelligence of the members of the government. And with due respect to these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold."

The Summary includes an extensive SUGGESTED READING LIST, his recommended Internet Gold Links, and other pertinent information sources:

(Fri Jan 02 1998 11:01 - ID#376309)
Puetz are you for real??????
Date: Thu Jan 01 1998 13:58 Puetz (> ) ID#222167: 1998 Prediction # 6: The gold price will rise to at least $500 per ounce, and if the global financial system begins to unravel quickly, then gold could be $2,000 per ounce or higher by the end of 1998.

Puetz ( ) ID#222167: 1998 Prediction # 5: Silver will continue to lead the way upward for the precious metals. The present gold-to-silver ratio of around 50-to-1 will shrink further to at least 25-to-1. By year-end, silver should be at least $10 an ounce, and, depending on how quickly the global financial system breaks down, silver could rise to $100 per ounce of higher by the end of 1998.

So we have a chance of $2,000 gold and $100 silver before the year is over?? Are you for real? George Soros just came out this week talking about Global Deflation. Do you think he was lieing? Do you think he was setting the world up to sell gold and buy bonds just so he could take profits? Perhaps, but I seriously doupt he would hold a news conferance for such a thing. Crude Oil is plunging the CRB is down hard and the yearly close we had and the action in the gold market all suggest that $280.00 WILL NOT HOLD!!! Yes, Gold may enter a bull market this year but it is still some time away and it will start at a much lower level. To prclaim that things will change so quickly is absurd. THe absolute turning point will most likeely be 1998 but the power move up will be in 1999!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 11:10 - ID#254269)
Happy New Year, All.

Lurker 777
(Fri Jan 02 1998 11:23 - ID#317247)
Gleen the AU man
I have June 99 270 puts and what concerns me is the chance my puts will not be covered in a free fall bear market. If gold went to say $50.00 an oz. what are the chances of default?

Lurker 777
(Fri Jan 02 1998 11:24 - ID#317247)
Sorry Glenn

(Fri Jan 02 1998 11:26 - ID#287207)
Vronsky: I'm happy to consider your interpretation of the Default as important. But I have some knowledge of Consolidated Nevada and the fact that they can't come up with 2600 oz is certainly no surprise. They are just another small miner of several small mining sites. Are you sure this is actually MONUMENTAL or just another junior going broke when gold is low?

(Fri Jan 02 1998 11:37 - ID#254269)
Korea Flow on effects starting; Qantas (the Aussie airlline) made an

announcement in Sydney "that it is suspending its 4 weekly flights to Korea ( from Australia ) from February 4th "due to regional economic
conditionsand a sharp decline in travel from Korea to Australia".

(Fri Jan 02 1998 11:38 - ID#333131)
Lurker 777 Have I got a deal for you!
If you think gold is going to $50, why buy a wasting valued put? Why not go long ABX. With a huge forward position, $50 gold would allow them to deliver gold with their mines closed at monumental profits. What a deal!

El Nino
(Fri Jan 02 1998 11:39 - ID#217139)
I can't make up my mind ... is the gold price going up or down .... or just going to sleep!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 11:43 - ID#426220)

CNBC TV financial celebrity and national investment newsletter analyst shares his considered opinions about all the markets with us... his first rays of 1998 wisdom:

Lurker 777
(Fri Jan 02 1998 11:47 - ID#317247)
I own 100 Philharmonic 1 oz coins and bought the put as insurance.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 11:47 - ID#256201)
El Nino: It's El Nio!
To accomplish the tilde in spanish words with  such as sueos, maana, nia o nio, do the following:
Instead of typing the n ( N ) hold down on alt and type 1 6 4 on number keys. Should work.
I am giving this info out 'cause it's tiring to constantly see misspelled words. I can't help with the other words, 'cause it's obvious most of you use spellcheckers and they do not know the differences between spelling of homophonic words.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 11:55 - ID#352177)
Using rare strong language Jerry Favors forecasts 'devastating' DJIA decline January 7-9.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 12:00 - ID#348286)
@Reading the Future
glenn: Re your comments to puetz, let me recount a short story.
Last summer ( 97 ) , my broker saw that I had some cash in my account and called to sell me on some hot ASIA funds.
He told me about the mega previous returns and how good the future looked. Well luckily he picked the wrong guy to try and sell regular equity funds too.
I must admit that the whole thing had me thinking about what I was missing, but I managed to stick to my guns and was not taken in.
Needless to say these funds are down over 50% from that level.
Who would have believed at the time that this market was about to crash?
The moral of the story is that "past performance is no indicator of future returns" and, the higher level you buy in at the greater your risk is of losing big money etc etc.
Gold has been clearly manipulated by politics down to where it is today, and you are right it may yet go to 250. - 270., but no-one can put a limit on the upside.
This is the best reason to own Gold/Silver. Gold 2000. sounds no more rediculous than Gold 7000. IMO.
When the tide turns, there will be massive shortages because the smart
money will move very fast to buy up the limited supplies, and the stupid money will be slow and chase the price up.
Paper Gold will remain just that, Paper Gold, unless you believe that speculators can pay out 100 times their margin balances.
No-one can say when this will happen with any certainty,
but IMO we are not very far away.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 12:01 - ID#25588)
Feb Gold
The 290 stop was hit on the opening Wed.. The result was a $500 per contract profit based on an entry price of 284.8. I still think 305-310 is in the cards for Jan., I went back in at 289 with a 287 stop. Shorted the Mar S&P at 983 with a stop now at 984.25

(Fri Jan 02 1998 12:15 - ID#344308)

rj----jerry favors prediction works for me......i'm usually
2 wks to 1 mo ahead of actuality.......+2 and counting....

commodities prices are being driven to the cellar.......excellent.....

there is no safer way to trade futures than when at life-time lows.....
they cannot go to galore after they hit the floor!

we are 13" above normal precipitation levels here in s texas...
more coming....

physics dictates an equal period of below average precipitation
levels........bad news for grains this year....major drought inbound....

silver is going to feel the effects of the speculators who have
done to silver what was done to copper.....move ( hide ) the supply,
wait for the squeeze, castrate the young bulls.........

same as bre-x......the smoke-signals spoke the truth then......we
shall see if they speak with forked water-molecules now......

who said bernatz was not an alter ego of a regular here?

cherokee!; ) ----breaker-of-the-phalanges-of-the-bi-pedal-weine-wackers---

(Fri Jan 02 1998 12:29 - ID#31868)
Get Camdusess!!!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 12:34 - ID#333131)
Lurker 777
I wasn't being entirely sarcastic. The heavily hedged producers would reap a bonanza with a period where gold was significantly below the price of production. It would be like reducing their production costs while allowing them to keep the gold in the ground they have and also allow them to buy up other non hedged mines.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 12:35 - ID#285233)
XAU Strength/Gold Down
XAU is up 2.5% while gold is down. It is interesting to note that XAU index almost always leads physical metal on the way up. The lead time varies from a week to 3 months.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 12:39 - ID#31868)
The wonder that is the shared fin is alive and well. Hopefully, for our sake, he will never run out of ink! Happy New Year to sharefin and all that call him family.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 12:45 - ID#31868)
Rules are loose

Is there safety in improbability
deduced by the faithful who honour
the implausible? Rules are loose
in the world and there are no more
men with stiff-bristled brooms, pushing
trash bins, riding comparatively majestic
in wheeled contraptions, to sweep them
along gutters. Drains block, overflow.

Laws pelt us, in league with sour winds
of no direction. Haphazardly we punch
their noses and already disfigured eyes,
disrespectfully regretting lost stability

Louts fence, knobsticks in lite fists
equally ridiculous, We shoot cultured obscenities
from roof tops. Only fooling, toy
words. The others are stored in jungles,
mountain hideouts, in ships sailing
under unpopular flags, in swallowed balloons
that perforate, killing before customs
persons have a chance to look
another way. Lurking everywhere,
therefore invisible, They try to find
out who has copyright for mayhem.

Can you not keep a secret? If you don't
stop laughing aloud, everyone will know.


Emerald Heights
(Fri Jan 02 1998 12:48 - ID#227311)
WELL...What next? Perhaps the great Mexican astrology "Walter" will give us his forecast! ( Personally I like Walter he is a great showman ) . Just the fact that the Gold Eagle has an on board astrologer would make any thinking person dismiss the whole entity. say "call me looney" OK that will not take much doing or intellect. Must be one of those "good Christians that will be caught up in the rapture and let there car plough into the mother and kids" and then say "OH OH its just the will of God". What utter rubbish!! AS far as the "The book of revelation" you speak of that talks of "Golds regain to former power and glory" The Book was written by people who thought the world was flat...and the end times would happen during the European dark ages. Its interesting how in one sentence you use the term "My belief" then say its makes me "certain". Belief and certainty are two different things. Your parting view and most typical of your ilk is condeming your bother Christians as surely charlatans, scam artist etc. etc....and I wonder ?? with your gold and silver would you be part of the money people who Jesus kicked out of the temple?? I would suggest that a good read of Upton Sinclair's book "Profits Of Religion" be put on your reading list if you want some real insight.
Regards: EH

(Fri Jan 02 1998 13:11 - ID#256201)
y2k info site!!
For whomever it was who requested info last nite: Try this link. I got it from vronsky's page a month or so ago!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 13:12 - ID#78116)
Emerald Heights
What a breath of fresh air you are.... all I can say to your last post is AMEN

(Fri Jan 02 1998 13:13 - ID#426220)

PART - II, January 1, 1998

The author entitles the second part of his profound treatise as: The Alchemist Theory: Gold is Dead.

Are we witnessing the culmination of the alchemist's dream: that a fiat currency, whether made of paper or electrons, has become
not only "as good as gold" ( Alan Greenspan ) but has become a
perfect substitute?

He examines the pros, cons and feasibility of a One Global Currency. Its an intellectual exercise and very heady stuff.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 13:14 - ID#328159)
Y1.998K bug: Reading previous posts

is a temporary mirror bug-fix page that I created for Kitco date searching, since the original web page has a "Year 1998 bug"- the page is stuck at "Oct 97", you can't read earlier posts, and there's no '98!

To use this page, select the correct date and check the appropriate time

period ( mandatory ) on the form and press Submit to see actual Kitco

posts. Use your browser Back function, or re-enter the above URL

to do another time/date lookup from this mirror page.

Fortunately, adding a bit of HTML code to the search form shows that the

Kitco search engine is not at fault- they can search the archive but the

old web page code hasn't provided sufficient input options. Note that

the current time is not set automatically, as this is a fixed HTML code

page whereas the proper page, I suspect, is generated "on the fly" by a


This mirror will be removed when Kitco's web page is fixed, or if I

receive a request for removal from Kitco.

This is an excellent illustration of the kind of trouble we can expect

in year 2000 ( and then some ) - now you can go back to Fri Jan 02 1998

01:37 and read Miro's interesting piece on Y2K.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 13:18 - ID#31868)
A most Happy and Healthy New Year to you. I am enriched because you are on this planet.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 13:24 - ID#426220)
tolerant1: Thank you for the kind words... and may 1998 crowd your life with health, wealth & happiness.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 13:25 - ID#373403)
U.S. Debt Explosion!
12/31/1997 $5,502,388,012,375.95

Month Amount

12/30/1997 $5,458,504,731,473.30
12/29/1997 $5,456,865,348,685.66
12/26/1997 $5,452,644,936,513.43
12/24/1997 $5,454,270,389,921.08
12/23/1997 $5,452,602,685,047.99
12/22/1997 $5,449,103,887,432.13
12/19/1997 $5,447,637,626,263.64
12/18/1997 $5,447,173,794,526.24
12/17/1997 $5,444,855,611,810.11
12/16/1997 $5,442,315,818,048.56
12/15/1997 $5,474,663,059,889.36
12/12/1997 $5,473,298,399,569.49
12/11/1997 $5,472,596,997,786.56
12/10/1997 $5,474,482,104,049.82
12/09/1997 $5,472,670,670,026.80
12/08/1997 $5,475,965,824,198.51
12/05/1997 $5,476,603,792,792.89
12/04/1997 $5,476,888,289,505.63
12/03/1997 $5,475,039,674,271.27
12/02/1997 $5,489,345,726,813.93
12/01/1997 $5,489,774,551,535.81

A jump of $50 Billion in one day?

(Fri Jan 02 1998 13:26 - ID#426220)
NEW YEARS MUSINGS: More Tears Than Joy

Southeast Asian Cuurencies Begin 1998 SHARPLY DOWN!

Maylasian, Indonesian & Thailand Currencies Plummeting... AGAIN

John Kutyn is undoubtedly one of last years most brilliant and perceptive analysts on the Domino Effect sweeping through Southeast Asia. His insightful take on currency chaos and stock market turmoil paint a grim picture of what the new year holds for the countries of that area... indeed what the ramifications are for the rest of the world. Following are a few of his random thoughts on the region. Additionally, he shares his opinion of the precarious condition of the Japanese Banking System, and what we might brace ourselves for in 1998.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 13:27 - ID#373403)
Site link

(Fri Jan 02 1998 13:30 - ID#252207)
S. Korea is asking it's citizens to "donate" gold to the government.
Apparently not everyone realizes it is a barbaric relic ;- ) It's in today's New York Times at:

(Fri Jan 02 1998 13:57 - ID#254269)
@ MoReGoLd re your 12.00; Has your broker called you back recently

since these funds are now down 50% or so, to tell you how much better
this deal is now ?

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:00 - ID#41229)
Emerald Heights @ Revelations
I suggest you sit down and read the bible, because the comments that you post on the book of revelations reveal that you do not study the bible!

It is stated that the Antichrist will come to rule with in a generation once the Jews have recovered their homeland,Isreal. The second coming of Jesus, the son of God will come to slay the antichrist will happen in the same period.

This did not happen in the dark ages. ( Jews getting their homeland )

One thing I have always wondered is why people that have a liberial bent refuse to recognize of the bible as a legitimate source of information!

There is more substanciated proof that the events that were written in the bible indeed happened, more proof that we have for global warming, ( which I'm sure you support )

I think the biggest problem that liberials have with the bible is that each person is to take responibilty for their actions, not society; also that no one is to be taken care of without performing some sort of service ( odviously this goes against wellfare! )

Oh the big, An eye for an eye, punishment for the criminals, a life for a life! This means the death penelty is a just form of punishment!

As for the rapture, It is only 144,000 people that are to be spare the 7 years of tribulations, This represents 12,000 from each of the twelve tribes of Isreal.

The Bible is a book of parables and the stories that are told hold secrets of what is to come! The stories hold clues within them and the puzzles are to be solved. It even states this with-in the bible.

By the way don't you find it odd that we have the dead sea scrolls and Nomstradomes, the come up with similiar conclusions during the same time period!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:00 - ID#254269)
Big Bear on the horizon
The business section of today's local paper ( The Dallas Morning News )
has one of those big year end/new year feature stories about the
world equity markets. In the graphics, there is a Big Bear coming up out
of Asia and he is just looking at the North American continent. He has
some really sharp claws by the looks of him !.

The Hatt
(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:01 - ID#294232)
More On Defaults!
The first crack in the egg has occurred and for those that doubt the
message being sent here I have to ask you just one question. " If this
default had of been 26000 ounces or worse yet 260000 ounces would the
gold market have reacted differently"? Donot hide your head in the sand
where there is heat there is fire and the flame is now lit. It is my
opinion that the shorts will sit up and take notice and believe me they
are relieved the extra zeros were not there. The short squeeze will be
played ou in 1998.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:03 - ID#254269)
Dumb question. I've asked this once before and got no responses. Where

did the term "bulls and bears" originate ?

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:06 - ID#252207)
Gold Loan Default
Who and When did the gold loan default happen?

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:07 - ID#411149)
vronsky- ditto to tolerant1's 13:18, and to Mike Sheller, CC, D.A., Steve Puetz and BART and all the other contributors to this site.


(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:07 - ID#238295)
the action
Gold and gold stocks acting acting EXTREMELY WELL in the face of a surging dollar and surging bonds. The gold complex is starting to discount reduced CB selling and lending this year as well as forthcoming moves to arest the greenback's surge and reflate the global economy to a certain extent. Those waiting for much lower gold prices are going to miss the boat.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:12 - ID#201131)
I agree that the default on a gold loan is a major event. PGU is also in the same boat as far as negotiating with creditors.

As a comment. Why some many advertisments from you? This was not suppose to be a billboard to advertise on. Just a thought.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:13 - ID#238295)
Arch Crawford
Saw Arch Crawford on CNBC this morning. He exited the market on December 31 and sees big trouble ahead for stocks in February-March.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:15 - ID#256254)
Date: Fri Jan 02 1998 14:13
OLD GOLD ( Arch Crawford ) ID#238295:

Did Arch say anything about gold???

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:19 - ID#27251)
Gold in Heaven
First of all I take exception to the belief that I think Emerald Heights was making in his post that the Bible was written by people who thought the "earth was flat". It is true that the church at that time did promote the idea that the world was flat but had they read the scriptures they would have seen that the writers of scriptures said the world was a sphere.
On the subject of Gold did you hear the story of the man that made a deal with God that he could carry something when he died to heaven. St. Peter was asking him what he had in his suitcase and the man said, "it is alright I have permission to bring this with me". "Ok open it up" St. Peter told him. He did and it was full of gold bars. St. Peter asked in amazement "why did you go to all this trouble just to bring pavement with you". The moral to this story is you can't take it with you and if you did no one would want it.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:20 - ID#256201)
@refer: and revelation and nostradamus and SPELLING and syntax
Nowhere in the bible's entirety is reference made to a RAPTURE!!!

I suggest you read a little more on the 12,000 from each tribe, etc.
As to Nostradamus, he was a charlatan and a fraud.
His connection with christianity if any, was tenuous at best!!

I suggest you can build for yourself a "Prospero ao Nuevo" if you will but PERUSE the scriptures. ( Puhleeeze read up on the definition of the verb PERUSE . It will benefit you greatly in future! )
( :+}]

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:21 - ID#93130)
GLENN: Your unequivocable conviction that gold is going lower is just as absurd as PUETZ's opinion that GOLD is going substantially higher. No one a year ago forecast the substantial devaluation of the Asian currencies which clearly evidences the rule that no one - including SOROS ( who has made many a bad bet ) - can predict the market with great reliability; and it is the highest degree of vanity to think one can - and which separates the pros from the tyros. This does not mean that one should not speculate and base one's investments on such speculation as long as one recognizes that it is just merely speculation and not a vision from above.

The Hatt
(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:22 - ID#294232)
Watch the action on the Dow!
The old boys club is slowly but surely distributing their soon to be
worthless paper to the mutual fund rookies. Maybe it is just me however
the closer I watch the trading the more you notice the sell programs being initiated into strength. Donot look for a rally here because the
selling into strength will only increase as more and more people start
to realize that the mutual fund game is only a legal means of fleecing
the average guy on the street. Outflow and inflow information is such a
strong signal that the Correction Will Be Liquidity Driven! If you doubt
me take a look at the Nas. bulletin board!!!! NO BIDS!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:25 - ID#238295)
Skylark: Amen

Goose: Crawford did not mention gold during this interview.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:26 - ID#31868)
Emerald Heights
You cast aspersions like a poorly dressed director. Bad sunglasses and all. You my forgiven sot, I suggest for your edification a reading of Rabindranth TAGORE, the myriad minded man, krishna duttaand and andrew robison.

Sip your tea slowly, think.

Cast not aspersions upon those I respect.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:29 - ID#348286)
@HEY ..... Psssst ...... Wanna buy a bank?
S. Korea to sell banks to foreigners

Fri Jan 02 12:57:26 1998

SEOUL, South Korea ( AP ) -- South Korea will complete the takeover of its two most indebted commercial banks next month and then sell them to foreign investors, the government said Friday.

Korea First Bank and Seoul Bank were left with $2.67 billion and $2.14 billion, respectively, in bad loans when a series of South Korean conglomerates collapsed last year, triggering a financial crisis.

The Ministry of Finance and Economy announced that it will take a controlling interest in the banks by early February by investing $738 million in each. Then, it will put the banks up for sale.

South Korean news media, without giving sources, reported that Citicorp's Citibank was interested in Korea First Bank and that Chase Manhattan was eyeing Seoul Bank.

The U.S. banks are interested in taking over the ailing Korean banks by themselves or forming joint ventures with South Korean conglomerates, the reports said.

The Seoul branches of the American banks remained closed for the New Year's holiday, making officials unavailable for comment.

The government already has poured $1.5 billion into Korea First Bank and $1.2 billion into Seoul Bank to write off 56 percent of the banks' bad loans. The government plans to pay off the remainder before calling for bids on the banks next month.

The announcement reflects South Korea's efforts to boost international confidence by restructuring its financial sector and opening it to foreign investment in return for the record $57 billion International Monetary Fund bailout. South Korea has promised to liberalize its economy, considered by Western investors one of the most closed in Asia.

Last week, it adopted new laws to ease restrictions on foreign investment in South Korean companies. This -- coupled with more than 50 percent declines in the Korean currency and stock prices -- has cleared the way for bargain-rate takeovers of South Korea's debt-ridden companies.

Parliament plans to pass a bill this month that will allow foreign-owned companies taking over the Korean banks to lay off workers -- a condition the IMF attached to its rescue loans.

Foreign banks will be allowed to open retail branches in 1998, but the cost of matching the vast number of branches owned by existing South Korean banks would be prohibitive. That makes the takeover of an existing bank especially attractive.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:30 - ID#27251)
I can't let this one go either a.j. It is true that the Bible doesn't use the word rapture in 1st Thessalonians 4:13 but this event is referred to by Bible scholars as the rapture or to be "caught up". This is the discription of the rapture. 13 Brothers, we do not want you to be ignorant about those who fall asleep, or to grieve like the rest of men, who have no hope.
14 We believe that Jesus died and rose again and so we believe that God will bring with Jesus those who have fallen asleep in him.
15 According to the Lord's own word, we tell you that we who are still alive, who are left till the coming of the Lord, will certainly not precede those who have fallen asleep.
16 For the Lord himself will come down from heaven, with a loud command, with the voice of the archangel and with the trumpet call of God, and the dead in Christ will rise first.
17 After that, we who are still alive and are left will be caught up together with them in the clouds to meet the Lord in the air. And so we will be with the Lord forever.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:32 - ID#348286)
No, my broker hasn't tried to sell me any funds since then.
I do most of my trading online now, at a fraction of what I was paying them.
Technology is great, brokers aren't ..........

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:33 - ID#410194)
The most severe inflationnary periods always occur when it seems to be under control. In the current deflationary talks and rumors when the media, analysts, average people and even the so called shrewd investors stating their opinions and reasons of a current deflationary outcome makes me believe that we are already in an inflationay mode which will continue to intensify in very subtle way.

Really, when such a consensus is reached by almost "everybody" that deflation is knocking at our doors, it is a fantastic and explosive opportunity for only a minority of traders and investors to realize that "everybody" is becoming complacent about what they believe is taking place and it's time to look in the opposite direction.

Nothing is what it seems to be and always beware of the obvious!

To me, too many people from every walks of life now agree on deflation. It is the perfect and most favorable environment for inflation!

Most commodities have now also reacted to the deflationary analysis, rumors and opinions. In a few weeks at the most, they will slowly start to move up and leave behind the majority of people who will continue to bet on the downside.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:33 - ID#426220)

Jupiter" YOUR comment is extremely meaningful: "S. Korea is asking it's citizens to "donate" gold to the government."

The Korean government is specifically and desparately seeking GOLD DONATIONS, and not contributions of their Worthless Won. Besides, the Korean governement is PRINTING all the Won Paper they need.

In fact tourists are now buying Won2,000 bills as souvenirs for a buck.

HEY, any you guys out there want to start a sure-fire business: Buying up the Russian Rouble ( old ) at ten-bucks a ton. Then we will remarket it in solvent countries as ornate Wall-paper... suggested retail price $2.99 per sqaure yard, plus applicable sales tax.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:35 - ID#238295)
USA Gold

In other market-related news, the new Thai prime minister warned that the worst is yet to come in 1998 for
Thailand's economy. He predicted further economic contraction and unemployment in the once robust nation. GDP
is expected to grow only 0.3% in 1997 and to shrink 0.7% in 1998---all of this to the chagrin of the IMF which
lent $17.2 billion recently in the hope of reinvigorating that economy. Compare these figures to an 8.4% per year
growth in GDP from 1992 to 1996! Things are not much better in Korea, the other Asian Tiger that has been
mauled by market forces. Reuters reported today that the outlook for Korea's economy in 1998 is gloomy, at
best---despite a $57 billion bailout last week. Major South Korean corporations are expected to collapse like
dominoes due to debt problems, which will drag down a number of smaller companies and will push banks to the
brink of involvency. Stephen Marvin, head of research at Ssangyong Securities, said "the resulting implosion of the
banking system will force the government to seek international assistance again." Interesting thought: No one
predicted at the start of 1997 that Korea would fall apart. The only analyst who warned investors to stay completely
away from all of Asia was Barton Biggs of Morgan Stanley, and this warning came about the middle of 1997.

Finally, while on the subject of Asia, many analysts are waiting for the other shoe to drop---i.e. Japan. The Nikkei
225 fell below 15,000 last week which has put tremendous strain on the Japanese banking system since most banks
own shares of Japanese corporations. Now the asset/liability ratios are out of balance due to lower stock prices, and
that spells trouble. Alan Greenspan and Robert Rubin know it and soon the world will, too. Prime Minister
Hashimoto announced a U-turn in fiscal policy in December to counter the threatening recession in Japan's
economy. He announced measures that included billions of dollars in income tax cuts which are hoped to stimulate
domestic demand again. Who would have predicted at the beginning of 1997 that the "locomotive" of
Asia---Japan---would be unable to continue its role as global lender? Japan's banking system has more than $1
trillion of nonperforming loans--and that was before the recent fallout in Southeast Asian economies. One of these
days, these loans will need to be written off. In the meanwhile, it is the IMF which has become the lender of last
resort. With close to $160 billion lent to Asian economies so far, many analysts are saying that four times that
amount or $650 billion will be needed to restore the lost market capitalization values. The stage has been set for the
biggest bailout in the world's financial history. Gold is dirt cheap when viewed in this light. Once investors
worldwide wake up to this fact, we will see the biggest gold rush in history. That's all for today.

Lurker 777
(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:35 - ID#317247)
As a former Heathen I want to thank you for expressing what I believe but cannot articulate. I am a new Christian and believe the Bible is the word of God. I hope through my studies I am able to somehow serve as a true voice for our father in heaven. God bless you!

Mo in To
(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:38 - ID#347205)
Worthless Paper to Mutual Fund Rookies...
The Hatt,
Re: your 14:22 post about worthless paper being distributed to mutual fund rookies...a disturbing parallel can be drawn if you have read J.Galbraith's book on the 1929 Crash wherein the suckers were drawn into "investment trusts" whose "investments were in other so called trusts, all of which in the end were worthless. One of the most successful mutual funds in TO in 1997 was a fund that only invested in the stocks of other mutual fund companies!! They actually got awards at the annual mutual fund awards this year. Weird huh? Paper owning nothing else but other paper, the value of which is dubious.

Mo in To

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:39 - ID#93232)
@T#1...chaos is perfect and Houston is not......?
You see the storm sewer system staying super saturated, sometimes suggests seldom servicing by sity servants ( sloppy salliteration, Soupy ) .
However, don't quiz me any further on your 12:37...I shall surely slip.
Can Candickus!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:39 - ID#411149)
MORE GOLD- Arch Crawford was tryin hard to tell his story but that motor mouth Ron Ensana kept tryin to put words in his mouth. Damn Shame.

Tally Ho

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:47 - ID#252207)
vronsky Won wallpaper
I think Wons and Rubles would make great wallpaper. Unfortunately the shipping costs of all that paper would be more than it is worth.

Maybe some of those "electronic" currencies will make good Windows '95 wallpaper. The shipping is cheaper.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:53 - ID#254269)
@ NJ; Re Jerry Favors; do you have a url for this article ? TIA

(Fri Jan 02 1998 14:56 - ID#344308)


the current action in the dow resembles what
happens to the heart right before the body dies....

the de-fibrillator will not work.....the body is diseased
from years plaque build-up and cannot support life,
regardless of the herculean efforts attempted.....

with the paper-tiger gorged to the point of immobility,
and sick from the very source of her energy, ink, the
death knell is nigh well upon us.....damned unconcious rhymes....apo..

her scream---aaaawwwwwkkkkkkkk...not the hong kong chicken flu scream!

the paper-tiger's.....eek.....she had not strength to screech....

her riders' crescendo will reverberate around the globe....until
they are muzzled by their folly.....the toilet paper trolley...

chreokee!; ) ---japan-has-to-sell-paper ( us ) ---that-is-all-that's-left---

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:00 - ID#364147)
CherOkee...........................and paper
We can always use it to wipe our asses with.....

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:09 - ID#333232)
Breaking resolution
Avalon - this is "hearsay" on market nomenclature
Bull ( draws blood on the *up* swing of the horns )
Bear ( draws blood by slashing *down* with claws )
May not be right - but it sort of fits.

Refer, Denton et al - be careful in citing translated literature - context and pretext confound the best of us. Due diligence at all times is required - especially if you're gambling with your "soul".

Just for fun, check the etymology of the verbs to "wed" and "wager".

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:09 - ID#426220)

Long-time veteran precious metals analyst starts his report with a Point & Future chart of LONDON GOLD, going all the way back to 1980. It clearly shows a TRIPLE-BOTTOM at about the $280 level ( 1982, 1985 and the present ) . The last two times it reached Dines Buy Zone, the yellow zoomed to the $500 area:

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:10 - ID#28594)
Avalon--Bear and Bull (with thanks for posting the Mayer piece--Speed too thnx)
Bear ( ish ) An ancient proverb in many languages warns against selling a bear skin before you have caught the bear. Thus, for centuries, in English financial jargon stock sold "short"--that is, stock one did not own but sold anyway, hoping to repurchase it cheaper--was known as a
"bear skin". The seller was described as a "bear-skin jobber" or "bear": one who stands to profit from a decline in the quotation for a stock; a pessimist.

His opponent, the optimist, has been designated a "bull" ( for reasons obvious when one stoops to think about it ) at least since the early 18th century.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:12 - ID#93232)
The beast is dead...for two days it has rotted...the calendar deceives us in a cruel manner. We know of its death. Rejoice! It will eeeeeekkkkkk! on more. Rrrrreeeeekkkkk! the smell of old meat hanging in Asian public markets. I must run from the stomach revolts...away!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:14 - ID#31868)
Never cease to amaze me. A triple shot, gulp, Cuervo.s best, 1800 to you and your's.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:18 - ID#246272)
ted &cherokee

You are wrong on one point:use a $20 bill ( US or CAN. ) to wipe your a....? sorry sirs,This stuff is not suitable for even that!Just try it!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:20 - ID#254269)
@ SDRer_A and cmh ; Thanks for your explanations; any other thoughts
about the origin of "bulls and bears"? I have often wondered about
these terms. Thanks.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:21 - ID#41229)
A.j , Denton.Tx
I would be the first to omit that I'm no one to preach or quote the bible. I do find it fascinating! Also I know that the word rapture does not show up in the bible but use it in reference, because the event is recognized widely as the rapture.

Also was not suggesting that Nonstradomus was a christian, but has foretold of an antichrist coming to power and a great struggle near the 2000 time frame.

Denton, Tx

Check out Book of Revelation, ch. 7 verses 1-17

As for the spelling and grammer, have no excuses am no scholar just a lay man!

Another thing, the Bible states that armagedon is the end of the world as we know it, But a new age of peace is born and peace will rule for 1000 yrs.

Is is good to know that their is people who read and study the bible because we are in day that it is unpopular to profess the teachings. More and more the Bible is dismissed.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:21 - ID#28594)
OOPS! That was supposed to be "stops"...tho stoops works to, I suppose?
Whilst here, we'll do money ( cause it is relevant )

The Romans of the 3rd century B.C., like other people of antiquity, attached their mint to a temple, that of Juno Moneta, the "admonisher," from monere, "warn". In time, the coins and the mint itself also become known as moneta, which is still the Italian word. This gave Spanish moneda and French monnaie, which then gave English money, and Old English mynet, "coins," whence English, mint. Moidore comes from Portuguese moeda de ouro, "coin of gold."

Dollar comes from Jachimsthal, "Joachim's valley" ( thal ) in Bohemia, where in the early 16th century the first thaller was minted.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:23 - ID#215208)
I am looking into doing some exploratory trading in S&P and metals options, to learn the ropes and see if works for me. Can this be done online? If so, can someone supply a URL that will get me there. If it requires a broker, can someone recommend one that can be trusted? Thanks for your help.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:23 - ID#347457)
Bible, prophecies, markets, gold, etc.
May I suggest that we dont try to argue these issues on this forum. Everybody has the right to express his/her opinion, however, ridiculing religious beliefs on this forum may very well kill this forum. Religious beliefs are one of the strongest and people are ready to die in order to protect them. So I would strongly suggest that we dont try to argue it on this forum. If you dont believe it, say so, but dont try to ridicule it.

Anyway, I believe that on this forum you can find people representing most of the religion beliefs intodays world and for that reason I am not going to fight on this forum my Catholics beliefs but rather respect the beliefs of other participants.

And as far as some of you treat the religion as unfounded relics, it is based on much more facts than stock market worshipping ( and for sure survived much longer than worshipping of "everlasting" bull markets )

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:25 - ID#28594)
Golly Tolerant1, What I wanted to write was
Rules are loose

Is there safety in improbability

Talk about word rapture! I L O V E it...wish I had written it!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:28 - ID#31868)
GULP! A toast of happiness to you and yours. Live each day like a newly armored warrior!

The Hatt
(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:28 - ID#294232)
The Dow Supporters At CNBC Are Looking Worried!
Can anyone explain what happened to the New Year Rally! They just interviewed a trader in the pits who stated that many traders are at best
nervous! I wonder where the mutual fund managers have parked their big
fat bonuses from 1997. The Mutual Fund Meltdown will play out in a panic
type scenario as the poor realize that they have once again been tricked
out of their money! In Asia the pictures of lineups outside of Banks will
become the norm and in the U.S. lineups outside of Mutual Fund Companies
will also be the norm. Many will wake up one morning to the realization
that the safety of mutual funds were non-existent and that their
retirement savings have been redistributed to the wealthy!WAKE UP AMERICA

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:28 - ID#226355)
Bulls and Bears
Avalon-"Bear" is derived from bear skin jobbers, people who sold bear skins had a reputation for selling the skin before the bear was caught. The term gradually came to describe people who sold short. "Bull" comes from bull and bear baiting which was once a popular entertainment. The market as conflict between Bulls and Bears. This could be why we call the trading area "a Pit".

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:30 - ID#329157)
Jerry Favors Commentary- Dow drop in January
Jerry Favors' commentary can be found at

This, and other useful links, can be found at

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:32 - ID#41229)
correction, omit -meant admit

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:36 - ID#427357)

Mo in To ( Worthless Paper to Mutual Fund Rookies... )

Your comment about the exemplary "success" of a hybrid Mutual Fund that only invests in the shares of other mutual funds congers up memories of another market debacle of yesteryear.

In the early 1960s a super-salesman by thge name of Bernie Cornfeld had the absolutely brilliant marketing idea of a Mutual Fund that only invests in other mutual funds. Heck, if one of the cardinal benefits of mutual fund invesatment is diversification of risks, then maximize the concept to the "n"th degree: invest in a paper portfolio that invests ONLY in other paper portfolios. Eureka... a FUND OF FUNDS!

Bernie Cornfeld and his 10,000 salesmen worldwide began to change the western financial world. He had Swiss Bankers licking his boots. One of his directors was the son of a Former US president ( Franklin Delano Roosevet ) . Cornfeld's concept was so successful that in its last year of existance ( circa 1972? ) , his salesforce sold more Mutual Funds - under the aegis of Cornfeld's corporate flagship IOS - than all the other mutual funds in the world COMBINED. Cornfeld was going to control the entire financial world, but...

Alas, reality and the 1972-73 stock crash unravelled the IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCES of prior years... causing the FUND OF FUNDS paper castle to crumble to dust... accompanied by the DOW which lost about 55%.

Is the recently lauded success of a mutual fund which invests only in shares of mutal funds YET ANOTHER INDICATION of EXUBERANT IRRATIONALITY, indeed the dying bull???????

The irony of "DO YOU SINCERELY WANT TO BE RICH" still rings...

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:37 - ID#246224)
S&P bs on sovereign bond ratings
S&P almost always grants a rating of AA or AAA to any bond denominated in the issuing nation's *own* currency - 'because they can always print more of it to saticfy their obligations..'.

Doesn't that just toast your cookies???

Regardless of the condition of the government, economy, financial structure, etc they give these local currency bonds a top of the market rating.

The bond ratings that they are currently down grading are those issued in US$, DM and Yen as a payout currency. This means they expect it to be difficult for, say Indonesia, to get enough US$ to pay off its US$ denominated bonds.

A typical derivatives deal would mix these local currency bonds with some US$ bonds, containerize them in an off-shore account and sell them as AA- bonds in US$ denomination ( with a micro sized diclaimer that the AA- rating only applies to the US$ component of the bond, etc ) . Neat and devious trick. Your average retirement fund or insurance company can buy 'em up to fatten their returns ( at the expense of gambling on currency flux, etc which they probably do not recognize when they are getting into the deal, etc ) . PUKE!!!

Thanks S&P for AAAALLLLL your help. I really trust you now. Now everyone go out and check your funds' exposure...

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:41 - ID#31868)
The table at which my mind feasts is enlivened by the spice which is you. Cheers!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:42 - ID#352177)
Good or bad?
Nader critcizes Rubin.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:46 - ID#427357)

Flight Capital Fuels 15-Year-Old Bull Market

Although Rick Ackermans article was published in a major US newspaper a couple of weeks old, it nevertheless provides some interesting insights to the US market and world problems, which undoubtedly will have an impact in 1998.

With Asia's financial markets festering seemingly beyond remedy, Japan mired in near-depression, and the locomotive economy of South Korea in danger of seizing, why has Wall Street barely flinched?

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:52 - ID#31868)
A hefty undertaking you have provided me with. Much thought must be allowed for me. Goodness is consuming.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:55 - ID#344308)


the recent announcement by fidelity not to publicize
their in/out -flows from their mutual funds is the
eulogy for these behemoths. they had an out flow of
9+ billion....they are hoping to put a lid on the
real numbers before they scare many more from their
ranks. their weak excuse---competitors using info---
is horse hockey.

the young ( and old ) financial guru-dudes on wall street are
fixing to show what they really to ride
the s&p and big deal, and sure to reap what
has been sown over the last 7 years....

the last comparable run-up in equities occurred in 1935!

look at the parallels....but they cannot be compared due to
a new paradigm.........bull sh!t........

chaos and flux have enlisted weather and war to play at the
soiree this year.......everybody has reserved seats and WILL
attend...there have been ONLY 15,000 wars since mankind found
the stick, and proceeded to kick the living sh!t out of his neighbors
for the right to occupy, and assert one over another....
the stick is now the bomb, hidden in breifcases, with under-the-table
pay-offs and bj's for the right to another concubine for a moments
satisfaction.........bring on chaos and flux....they are needed
for the truth to be the truth again......

!;---1000k-in-98--cherokee!; ) ...clutcher-of-a-clutch-of-eggs--hkcf-aawkk-

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:55 - ID#93232)
@NJ...Thanks for the link....
I never thought that I would say this..."God Bless Ralph Nader" Rubin is driving the U.S. in a Nash Rambler right over the cliffs of La Jolla.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 15:59 - ID#31868)
It is my wish that you never cease. Write on!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:02 - ID#254269)
Dow up 52 points (0.65%), S & P 500 up 3.63 points (0.37%), 30 year bond

at 5.848%. About fifteen minutes ago, the figures were Dow up 43
point, S & P 500 up 1.77 points. The S & P500 seems to have made quite a recovery in the last fifteen minutes. Can any of you techies,please comment on that ? TIA

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:05 - ID#93232)
I humbly second tolerant#1's emotion.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:14 - ID#254269)
@ DJ. Options. About ten days ago, I asked where a newbie could go
for information re options and futures, KC Trader gave me a very
interesting response and it is posted on 12/23 at 18.34. You might want to look it up.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:19 - ID#364147)
Why this looks like last year
Gold down---Dow up---and hard to post @ Kitco~~~~~~~~~

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:21 - ID#364147)
Selby.............................and Florida
Selby: Why would anyone want to go to Florida??---especially Canadians with the low dollar ( even though today was its third straight up-day )

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:23 - ID#26793)
Gold and Silver close

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:25 - ID#255284)
Golden Erisian apples of Confusion.....
Ted: You ask me?

There are many other birds in NZ closer to extinction than the kiwi, it is our shame. Lamentably, no country is shameless in this light.

chas: Acronym translation plse: UVa51, AF. Ta.

All: booger means what in your argot? I am almost afraid to ask.

Vronsky: Nick Leeson was no Rogue Trader, that implies some kind of derring-do. Rogue Trader was merely the title of his nauseating apologia. He was but a common thief and conman: he had neither the wit of a Ponzi nor the panache of an Horatio Bottomley, Leeson is just lowlife.

a.j. Are you, like , homophonic? Or are you merely boorish, like me? Its tiring to see misspelt words. Mon ami, I could discourse on the origin of English, its sluggish, though comparatively early commitment to writing when our words were pronounced differently than today. I could argue that almost all words are misspelt, but I shall be brief:

Change the name of Arkansas!

It shouldve been done during reconstruction. I love the speach given by the Arkansas Governor ( ? ) 23 July 1867 against the motion, failing which, change the spelling -- Arkansaw!! Petty, petty post, you can do better than that.


(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:25 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 27.65

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:25 - ID#364147)
Ali...........................and ass-wiping paper
If ya wad enuf of em ( 20 $ bills ) together they work fine....

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:26 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .262

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:28 - ID#26793)
Silver/Gold Ratio = 48.42

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:30 - ID#194311)
Haggis's hash on soros 9:35
Highly relevant.
Seems to be they are moving now to enforce the new gold standard and a world currency. Interesting that Soros's article says that this International Credit Insurance Corporation will use Special Drawing Rights ( SDR's ) as a "watertight guarantee".....previous musings by SDRer and others shows some correlation between currencies, SDR rates and gold price.
As the jigsaw pieces fall into place the bigger picture comes clear, pity it's such a grotesque manipulated BEAST that we see, and it rests on huge pile of gold.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:32 - ID#364147)
Aurator.......................and ask ya what??
G'day mate!!....Haven't gotten in trouble ( yet ) on my first night of 'home alone'....

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:35 - ID#316409)
@ "Check your mail" question
....Just our of curiousity, why do people post this on a public forum day after day? Just wondering..

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:35 - ID#364147)
If you play football while skiing
You DESERVE to die----another dead-dumb Kennedy~~~~~~

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:37 - ID#316409)
Pegasus opnions
Bought a few thousand shares Pegasus today. Very interested in opnions..will it be liquidated, or bailed out by the Aussie's?

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:38 - ID#316409)
Y2K...maybe it's real after all
Hmmmm Kitco thinks it's October, and my web server has lost everyone's e mail, maybe there's something to this Y2K thing after all.......


(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:39 - ID#348286)
@NJ i will post your article: CAMDESSUS and RUBIN caught sleeping in the same bed.
NADER is Right on the money here:

Nader Criticizes Rubin Handling of S. Korea, Citicorp Bailout
U.S. Newswire
31 Dec 11:01

WASHINGTON, Dec. 31 /U.S. Newswire/ -- Consumer advocate
Ralph Nader sharply criticized Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin today
in a letter challenging his handling of the South Korea/Citicorp
"Your involvement and leadership in the ongoing South
Korean/Citicorp bailout illustrates the perils of top government
officials crafting policy with very little democratic influence and
virtually no public debate," Nader wrote in a letter co-signed by
Robert Weissman, co-director of Essential Action, a corporate
accountability group. The letter specifically criticizes the "Great
Christmas Eve Reversal," in which Rubin agreed to commit U.S.
taxpayer funds to the bailout, after long asserting that U.S. funds
would only be used as a "second line of defense" after monies from
the International Monetary Fund and World Bank had been exhausted.
Nader said Rubin had operated behind closed doors to engineer a
bailout of big U.S. banks and to impose unnecessary recessionary
policies on the South Korean economy.
"Furthering the inequity," he wrote, "the IMF and Christmas Eve
Reversal packages require South Korea to open its economy to foreign
mergers and acquisitions -- meaning that Citicorp, J.P. Morgan,
Bankers Trust, BankAmerica, the Bank of New York, Chase Manhattan and
others are not only bailed out, but then given the opportunity to buy
up lucrative sectors of the South Korean economy -- a double
Nader called on Rubin to establish explicit boundaries demarcating
the limits of the administration's willingness to engage in bailouts
for U.S. corporate interests. "Now is the time to establish a policy
framework to assure that the 'emergency' rationale is not endlessly
invoked to justify frantic and flailing closed-door decisionmaking
and bailout after bailout," he wrote.
Nader also called on Rubin to disclose the list of the big banks
that are the ultimate recipients of the bailout, cease allocating
taxpayer money to financial bailouts without congressional approval,
and not to seek additional funding for the IMF "which has
demonstrated that is too secretive and too enchanted with pull-down
austerity measures ( which hurt working people in Third World
countries and ultimately boomerang to hurt working people in the
United States ) to merit support."
Note: The full text of the letter can be faxed, or is accessible
on the world wide web at

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:42 - ID#364147)
LGB..................and Y2K
Y1K ( problem ) hit Cape Breton a 1,000 years ago .....and we're still hurtin....

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:49 - ID#286230)
Ted: I can't say why folks would go to Florida unless they have a wish to die or sweat. Contrary to uninformed views the difference in the C$- US spread over a month in Florida doesn't amount to a go-no go decision maker.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:52 - ID#316409)
@ Karlito, Emerald heights, .......Astrology....Gold...and U!
Gentlemen, I'm afraid that I must agree with your asessment that a Gold investment site, such as "Gold Eagle", does much to lessen it's credibility as a true "analyst" site when it;

a ) Has as one if it's primary contributors, an investment Astrologer
b ) Has as another one of it's primary contributor's, an analyst calling for potential $8,000 Gold and $100 Silver in 98, and
c ) Virtually never gives balanced information re Gold and Gold investments, and
d ) Posts deceptive information as to Gold's historical perforamce in our century relative to other investments and
e ) Posts virtually nothing re the BIGGEST Gold stories of the year/decade, namely,

1 ) Gold funds had the largest drop of ANY mutual funds in 1997, and 2 ) Gold's past 18 year performance has been the most horrific crash in an "investment" vehicle since the Equities crash of 1929.

Vronsky has a nicely laid out site, and does have interesting contributors at times, however, if it's ever to rise above the "National Enquirer/Globe/Star" of investment sites, there should be serious thought given to the content.

Isn't it a riot to read about "media bias" and "talking heads" and "Stock market sheep" on Vronsky's site, when it is by far a worse offender when it comes to giving a balanced, objective, analytical presentation re Gold???

( PS Kitocites, no I'm not violating my New Years resolutions, I called no names, and besides, it's still Oct. 2 1997! )

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:53 - ID#364147)
Selby..............and Florida Suks
Lived there ( Bradenton Beach ) for one year and would never go back!! Time for din-din...bbl dudes~~~~~

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:54 - ID#286230)
Hattman: The question is whether we have a MONUMENTAL default or a junior gold miner going broke. How about an answer to my question about Hong Kong money returning to Hong Kong being responsible for the 1/3 decline in Vancouver house prices?

(Fri Jan 02 1998 16:56 - ID#424187)
Bart*****Please come back we all love you (fix the URL)

(Fri Jan 02 1998 17:09 - ID#410194)
Att: LGB
Vronsky's 20 repetitive "advertisements" a day also take away a big amount of credibility from the Gold Eagle site.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 17:11 - ID#201131)
PGU thought
PGU could close out their hedges and take the cash but they were going to pay those hedges off with the gold from MT. TODD which is now closed. They are in a real bind. The answer to PGU as an investment depends on the creditors. If gold should rally 70 bucks in the next three months they may get more credit. Otherwise I would look for the shareholders to get diluted and that is why the stocks is under 1.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 17:16 - ID#286230)
Mo in To: The threat of rookie Mutual fund managers bailing out was partially answered a month or so ago when the Stocks crashed. They rookies did not bail out. If the figures posted here are correct ( its possible ) the mutual funds that have crashed are the gold based funds. I guess their managers would look a lot better if they had bailed out

(Fri Jan 02 1998 17:18 - ID#335190)
Gold - Bible @ GOD-Christ-Jesus-Lord-Archangle (Revelation-Tribes of Isreal?)
Words of Tecumseh

Tenskwatawa of the Shawnee

In a speech to then Governor of the Indiana Territory, William Harrison, Tecumseh spoke the following words on August 11, 1810

"Brother, I wish you to give me close attention, because I think you do not clearly understand. I want to speak to you about promises that the Americans have made.

You recall the time when the Jesus Indians of the Delawares lived near the Americans, and had confidence in their promises of friendship, and thought they were secure, yet the Americans murdered all the men, women, and children, even as they prayed to Jesus?

I am Shawnee! I am a warrior! My forefathers were warriors. From them I took only my birth into this world. From my tribe I take nothing. I am the maker of my own destiny! And of that I might make the destiny of my red people, of our nation, as great as I conceive to in my mind, when I think of Weshemoneto, who rules this universe! I would not then have to come to Governor Harrison and ask him to tear up this treaty and wipe away the marks upon the land. No! I would say to him, 'Sir, you may return to you own country!'

The being within me hears the voice of the ages, which tells me that once, always, and until lately, there were no white men on all this island, that it then belonged to the red men, children of the same parents, placed on it by the Great Good Spirit who made them, to keep it, to traverse it, to enjoy its yield, and to people it with the same race. Once they were a happy race! Now they are made miserable by the white people, who are never contented but are always coming in!

You do this always, after promising not to anyone, yet you ask us to have confidence in your promises. How can we have confidence in the white people? When Jesus Christ came upon the earth, you killed him, the son of your own God, you nailed him up! You thought he was dead, but you were mistaken.

And only after you thought you killed him did you worship him, and start killing those who would not worship him. What kind of a people is this for us to trust?

(Fri Jan 02 1998 17:19 - ID#339274)
FWIW..Gold is becoming negative,a close below 74 on the XAU is to short
gold stocks as well.Gold has to take out 302 to stay viable,that could happen for S&P to decline until first week of February for its cycle low.
Gold stocks will get hit either way.No relieve until April 20th.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 17:29 - ID#39845)
Hey LBG2_A
Dont bore me tears in 98. Extract your didgit and get off everyones case.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 17:33 - ID#252150)
Glenn@your 11.01 to Peutz
Please.... don't confuse him facts. Makes his newsletter writing far too difficult.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 17:42 - ID#287207)
G. S Cole is now posting with some regularity on SI Gold Price Monitor.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 17:45 - ID#78116)
Peutz's last forecast: Still a perfect record
The last forecast the good Mr. Peutz made here was for a market crash to begin today. My main man Peutz is still 100%. Ya gotta love that kind of perfection.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 17:50 - ID#347457)
Thanks for the link. Great site. It says so much what of I have on my mind.

take care - Miro

(Fri Jan 02 1998 17:56 - ID#93232)
@aurator....thanks for asking....yuk!
Booger, exclusive of strip-tease argot, means nose potato. I'm sorry you asked.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 17:56 - ID#270165)

You can find out about the y2k problem at or the newsgroup This little problem you're witnessing today is just a taste of the coming y2k meltdown. What I would like to hear is people's opinions on holding metals in conjunction with this problem. Make no mistake about it, the computers are going to quit. Draw your own conclusions on what that means.


Dave in CO
(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:00 - ID#215211)
@Miro, KCTrader, fundaMETAList
Just heard on CNN that some smaller stores systems are rejecting credit cards expiring Y2000. But CNN said not to worry, it's only the small stores' cash registers with the problem and that all the credit card companies are ready. Good thing we don't have many small companies in the U.S. ;' ) Also saw on Gary North's site that very little if any parallel testing will be done for Y2K. If true, isn't disaster almost certain?

(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:00 - ID#26669)
What a bunch of sad sacks! Cheer up, guys! Steve Kaplan sez that India's projected gold consumption will hit 700 tonnes this year! That is a lot!

Spud Master
(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:01 - ID#273112)
Wow! Thanks for reminding we "the milling-about cattle" as the Clinton's, Rubin & Groinspan must think of us. Per the US Treasury "Debt to the Penny", the US DEBT for 1997 is ( drum role please ) ....

$179 BILLION DOLLARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yet Clinton et al tell us it is only $25 billion. I submit this as proof that Bill Clinton is both smoking AND inhaling. Or else lying.

MissingLink - yes, indeed, WHERE did that single day fifty billion dollar hit come from? More smoke & BS & mirrors. Thank God I buy gold every chance I get. This fascade called "Great American Boom" is going to collapse hard soon...

(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:04 - ID#39845)
Soros on IMF

(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:04 - ID#335190)
Mushrooms-R-us @ History overview, from this person's view, & Take (Back=Forward)

1694, Bank of England chartered July 27, opens in Londons Threadneedle Street to compete with small private banks that have grown out of the citys widely distrusted goldsmiths. A company of merchants headed by Scots financier William Paterson, 36, has received the charter in return for loaning the hard-pressed government 1.2 million sterling, the government agrees to accept Bank of England notes in payment of taxes, and the new joint stock company will soon control the nations money supply by setting the bank rate ( discount rate ) for commercial banks.

1708, The Bank of England Act prohibits any other bank with more than six partners from issuing banknotes

1764, The Currency Act passed by Parliament April 19 forbids Britains colonies from printing paper money.

1764, The British pay taxes at higher rates than any Europeans and have received little tax support from their colonists. They begin to take a harder line with the colonists.

1775, British banks organize their first clearing house in Londons Lombard Street.

1775, George III signs an order releasing from bondage the women and young children in British coal mines and salt mines. Many of the children are under 8, work like the women for 10 to 12 hours per day, and have been transferable with the collieries and salt works when the properties changed hands or their masters had no further use for them.

1816, The Luddite movement that was suppressed in 1813 revives as a dismal harvest produces economic depression throughout Britain. Well-organized efforts are made to smash machinery in riots at many industrial centers; a crowd gathers December 2 in Londons Spa Fields and commits acts of violence, the rioters are vigorously prosecuted but the movement will continue until rising prosperity ends it.

On September 30, 1940 Governor Eccles said: "If there were no debts in our money system, there would be no money"

Before the House Banking and Currency Committee on June 24 1941, Governor Eccles said : " Money is created out of the right to issue credit-money."

(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:06 - ID#426220)
YEAR END MARKET REVIEW Current Fundamentals

Dr. Thomas Drake generously shares with the GOLD-EAGLE readership a synopsis of his erudite and comprehensive YEAR END MARKET REVIEW.

It is indeed a perceptive and incisive analysis... must reading for the serious market student and professional. Also, very illuminating are the two 23-year charts of GOLD and the US Dollar.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:08 - ID#410194)
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after trading today:

Gold: Fell 772 ounces to 488,386

Silver: Rose 588,552 ounces to 110,436,630 Just above a 13 year low

Silver needs to get back above the "600" level early next week or the "580" area could be re-visited. Given the amount of traders who are waiting for the market to move lower so that they can jump in, the odds favour the upside.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:13 - ID#252150)
If Sir John Templeton is right
the global depression might be a ways off. I noticed on every Kitco-ites

favorite TV channel that Sir John bought a bunch of closed end Korean Funds. I they are good enough for him ,they are good enough for me. I still qualify as a small g gold bug. I own Kinross & the Bgr Prec mtl fund ( closed end ) . Gee, I wonder who has the best investment record Templeton or Peutz? Better check on that.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:17 - ID#398105)

You must also remember the India has a "virgin" gold mining industry, ala Australia 10 to 15 years ago. They have to sort out their Mining Laws, then all systems goooooooo!!!!!!

Aye, Haggis

(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:18 - ID#348286)
@"India's gold consumption is expected to rise sharply" - From S. Kaplan
According to a senior official of India's state-run Minerals and Metals Trading Corp., India's gold consumption is expected to rise sharply to 700 tonnes in 1998 after a record 500 tonnes in 1997. According to this official, who did not wish to be identified by name, "There has been a sudden spurt in gold demand in the country in the last two months. This trend will continue. Gold consumption will rise in all sectors--urban, semi-urban and rural."

(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:20 - ID#335190)
Mushroom-R-Us @ Overview of History ( Back=Forward)
United States

March 10, 1764 ( Obnoxious Stamp Act )

These were originally thirteen colonies, composed of emigrants principally from Great Britain. For the space of about a century they acknowledged the sway, and continued to contribute like loyal subjects to the support of the British crowns; but at the end of that period a plan of taxation was projected and attempted to be carried into effect by the parliament of Great Britain, which was peculiarly obnoxious to the people of the colonies.

Great Britain thought it expedient, and necessary, to tax the colonies. As her public debt had at that time increased to the prodigious amount of 158 million sterling , or, about $657,500,000 USofA. Prime Minister Grenville stated  That it was proper to charge certain stamp duties, in the colonies and plantations

Charles Townsend, a brilliant orator on the side of the ministry, took occasion to exclaim.  These Americans, our own children, planted by our care, nourished by our indulgence, protected by our arms, until they are grown to a good degree of strength and opulence; will they now turn their backs upon us, and grudge to contribute their mite to relieve us from the heavy load which overwhelms us ? 

Colonel Barre caught the words, and, with a vehemence becoming a soldier, rose and said:  Planted by your care ! No ! your oppression planted them in America; they fled from your tyranny into a then uncultivated land, where they were exposed to almost all the hardships to which human nature is liable....; and yet actuated by principles of true English liberty, they met all these hardships with pleasure, compared with those they suffered in their own country, from the hands of those that should have been their friends....

1775, The Revolutionary War began April 19, - Lexington. British loss 273 - American yeomanry loss 84
( From Nova Scotia Canada, to Georgia USofA. London endeavoured to restore peace )

1776, Declaration of Independence July 04,

Total British Losses ..............approx. 12,000 men + wounded + Thousands died of disease and exposure
Total American yeomanry.....approx. 10,000 men + wounded + Thousands died of disease and exposure.

Estimated American Cost of this war........$135,191,700

1782, Articles of Peace signed in Paris November 30,
1783, The Treaty was signed in Paris September 30,

1783, Some 16,000 American prisoners of war have died in British prison ships anchored in New Yorks East River.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:22 - ID#93232)
As Clint Eastwood is empowered by his S&W .44 mag.....
So is Studio.R today, as he just now received a handsome hoarde of uncirculated Liberty $20's from a wild-eyed postal worker. I have in my grubby little hands the moral and physical equivalent of Harry's heater...I now scoff at the prospect of fact, I beckon for its dreadful coming.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:23 - ID#398105)


Looks like the guy has got balls..........if only more Yanks stood up and did the same, and voted, then you might get Clinton and his Clowns sorted out.

Aye, Haggis

Mike Sheller
(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:25 - ID#347447)
Gee but it's great after bein' out late
6PAK: Thanks for the date ( July 27, 1694, Bank of England ) I will look up her horoscope in the next day or two.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:27 - ID#398105)
LGB2 and Pegasus


Pegasus have a BIG problem in Australia via Mt Todd. The real "problem" is operations not necessarily the gold price. The mine is now on care and maintenance, which means the operational problem CANNOT be solved. Too many eggs in the Mt Todd basket, and BAD management.

Aye, Haggis

(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:40 - ID#426220)

Noted ORACLE OF HONG KONG, Milhouse, provides yet another astute and insightful critique of the Nippon Financial Malaise. Milhouse is decidedly bearish, and feels the rapidly falling Nikkei is going to get a lot worse before it gets any better!

In Japan, the economic recession continues relentlessly. Furthermore, major falls in the stock market appear very likely in 1998, wiping out whatever capital remains in the troubled Japanese institutions.

I believe there is a greater chance that the Japanese people will start accumulating GOLD to protect their substantial savings...

Milhouses clear-sighted and perceptive report may be found at:

(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:42 - ID#270165)

CNN is likely correct. Hard to believe isn't it? The point of sale terminals are the problem. Visa and Mastercard told banks in October 1997 to start issuing cards with 00 expiration dates. The idea was to force retailers to upgrade their systems. Somebody with Mastercard said that only .5% of POS machines are left out there that don't work. The workaround is fairly simple but expensive for the retailer. The retailer may hand enter the card but change the expiration to 98 or 99 and the clearinghouse will accept the transaction. The retailer pays higher fees for hand entered transactions, so are likely to upgrade very quickly.

The card problem itself is relatively minor compared with the issuing banks accounting systems. This is a good example of how systems 'talk' to each other. If for instance, the bank that sends you your statement is non-compliant, it will be forced out of the system by the Federal Reserve, essentially making it an acquisition target of a bank that is compliant. The real test will be which banks can become compliant ( if any ) . So far, none are, but most claim they will be compliant. Now, the Japanese aren't fixing anything. Do you think the world financial situation will remain the same if the Japanese banks don't work? It's a mess!


silver plate
(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:44 - ID#289468)
where is the ceiling?
With the tremendous jump in the national debt to over 5 1/2 trillion
what is our current ceiling??????

(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:44 - ID#335190)
Mushroom-R-Us @ !!!!!!!
1787,On the second Monday of May, delegates from several states assembled at Philadelphia, for the purpose of forming a Constitution for the United States. Thomas Jefferson, of Virginia, being mainly the producer of the document.

1789, On the first Wednesday of January, electors of president and vice-president were appointed.
( The founding fathers of the USofA Constitution, were men of property )

President Washingtons administration strongly recommended to Congress measures for establishing the public credit. Hamilton, Secretary of Treasury, estimated the public debt to be at that time about $54,000,000. $12,000,000 were due to France, Holland and Spain..... and the balance had been contracted for by the several states in the course of the war, for its support.

These debts, Hamilton proposed, should all be assumed by the general government, and paid out of the public treasury. This measure was strongly opposed by the republican party. It was contended that men had taken advantage of the low state of public credit, and bought up for a small price, certificates of security against the government, and that the present holders were not justly entitled to receive more than they had paid. To this it was answered, that the government originally promised to pay the whole, and now, to preserve the public faith, the whole must be paid. The plan in the main was adapted.

Another financial measure of the secretary of the treasury soon attracted much attention and dispute. Through his means a bill was introduced into Congress for establishing a national bank, with a capital of ten millions of dollars ( $10,000,000 ) This was violently opposed by the republican party. It was contended that banks were unnecessary, and that by the constitution. Congress was not vested with the competent power to establish a national bank.

1781 ,Mr. Jefferson, Secretary of State, and Mr. Randolph, Attorney General, considered the bill as entirely unconstitutional: while Hamilton , on the other hand, maintained the opposite opinion with great ability and decision. Washington became satisfied of the utility of the bill, and accordingly gave it the sanction of his name.

1783, post war economic depression begins. President George Washington, the richest man in America, says he needs a wagonload of money to buy a wagonload of supplies. Corn sells for $80 a bushel, shoes for $100

1785, Congress establishes the dollar as the official currency of the United States, employing a decimal system devised by Thomas Jefferson, who is named minister to France to succeed Benjamin Franklin.

1789, The French Revolution, Frances Nobility begins to emigrate as peasants rise against their feudal lords.

1790, a termination was put to the war which for several years had raged between the Creek Indians and the state of Georgia. Hostile tribes, banks of Scioto and Wabash. Battles near Chilicothe, Ohio. Villages of Miami.

Congress, on receiving information of the bravery, and obstinacy of the Indians, resolved to prosecute the war with increased vigour, and made provisions directly for augmenting by enlistment the military force of the nation to 5,000 men.

1791, The first Bank of the United States receives a 20-year charter from Congress and succeeds the Bank of North America chartered at the end of
1781. The new bank has an initial capital of $10 million provided largely by private investors who buy stock with bonds acquired under a funding plan devised by Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton.

1791 the first census of the United States amounted to 3,921,326 of which number 695,655 were slaves. Secretary of the treasury report : Revenue amounted to $4,771,000 - Exports $19,000,000 Imports: $20,000,000

1791 at Pittsburgh, a resolution by rebellious citizens was passed declaring all excise taxes hostile to liberty A proclamation of the president exhorting all persons to desist from illegal combinations, and calling upon the magistrates to execute the laws, was disregarded.

1792, General Washington was again unanimously elected president of the American republic.

1794, President Washington called out the militia to suppress this insurrection . ( at Pittsburg ) . 15,000 militia, under Governor Lee, of Virginia, were dispatched. No blood was shed.

1795, Simultaneous with the conclusion of the Indian war, a treaty highly satisfactory to the Americans was formed with Spain.

In consequence of the end of the Indian war, and treaty with the Indians, the already abundant population of the eastern states began to spread, with astonishing rapidity, over the fertile region northwest of the Ohio.

1796, the rival parties of the nation brought forward their candidates for the presidency. John Adams, of Massachusetts, was voted for by the federalists, while Thomas Jefferson, of Virginia, was upheld by the republicans. The contest was nearly equal.

War of 1812 -14 British & ( Canada ) , against the USofA
British loss ...approx. 19,750
American loss..Approx 10,250
Indian Loss.......Unknown

1816, Congress imposes a 25 percent duty on all imports to protect Americas infant industry from foreign competition and make the nation self-sufficient but even with the tariff wall British manufacturers will find ways to undersell the Americans. Rep. Daniel Webster, 34, ( N.H. ) has opposed the tariff as a representative of New England shipping interests.

1816, The Philadelphia Savings Fund Society opens December 02 in the office of its secretary-treasurer George Billington in Sixth Street - the first U.S savings bank actually to accept deposits. It will receive a charter early in 1819 and grow to become the largest U.S. thrift institution.

1816, Frances Caisse des Depots & Consignations is founded. The central investment fund for savings banks must invest  in the public interest 

1818, The power to tax is the power to destroy says John Marshall March 6. The Supreme Court rules in McCulloch v. Maryland that no state may tax any instrumentality of the federal government. The case specifically involves taxation of the Bank of the United States and its Baltimore branch by the state of Maryland.

1840 census of the United States 17,068,112

1861 April 12. The American Civil War. 4,000,000 slaves valued at $2 Billion dollars.

Civil War Continued for 4 years. 600,000 killed and 400,000 maimed.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:52 - ID#20137)
Tyker Rose;

How is it going???

I greatly appreciate your keeping us informed on your experience on taking delievery on your gold contract. I haven't seen anything from you in awhile.

The last I heard, you were holding it in the warehouse. I just thought I would give you my two cents worth.

I think that you ought not worry about taking delivery. They are always trying to make us worry about keeping our own gold ( always have ) . I think that every jeweler ... must be able to sell gold to and from other dealers. So it just can't be that difficult. They need to qualify the quality of their goods. Maybe you can find out how a local dealer does it.

I think that Fed Ex ... should be able to handle your shipping.

Mainly, I wanted you to know you have our support.

My best wishes to you and yours in this New Year.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:53 - ID#20137)
Ooooops. Sorry about the typing on your name ... I should just make it T. Rose.

Steve - Perth
(Fri Jan 02 1998 18:59 - ID#284177)
Steves specially edited: NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA
It's Saturday & I slept in. The Baby is "killing" me!


Soeharto relative's bank gets a let-off

Financial breakdown means it's time to reassess IMF role - By George Soros

Growth Pearl industry adds lustre to WA's exports

The Maverick - Although there seems to be a very tired bull market in the US, a sustained correction may yet be some time away, writes Gerry van Wyngen.


Jakarta rocked by "junk bond" rating

It looks like a boom year for going bust

Bracing for year of the sluggish tiger

Korean currency plunges as debt blows out to $241bn

Korean currency down 18% as banks bail Seoul

Aussie Goldminers facing big writedowns

Getting burned by your Company Share Scheme

After 15 years the bulls are looking for a break

Big Americans take shine to Australian gold

Cashed-up firms swoop on Asia

Reproducing the 1930s

Japanese Banks not out of the woods

How Alan Greenspan saved the world

( See, nothing to worry about! Or is there? )

Mid Level Officials lobbying for Chinese Devaluation!

ASIA'S NEXT CASUALTY? Bad banks could clobber China

BOOKMARK Steves News Page:
( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )

(Fri Jan 02 1998 19:05 - ID#256201)
DaveinCo: My email is down!

These should suffice. Don'y forget the absurdly LOW CRIMR RATE in
West Central Arkansas!
My apologies to the rest of you good folks. My email server for the web site would not come up. Kept throwing me off line!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 19:09 - ID#270165)
Gotta go

Wife is making me go play bridge, be back Oct 3.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 19:13 - ID#26669)
Haggis, thoughts on India
IMHO if the Indians ever get their mining off the ground that might stimulate their government to finish liberalising the gold trade laws. They're still waking up to the fact that socialism doesn't work for the long run.

Bob M
(Fri Jan 02 1998 19:16 - ID#26059)
Just heard a report on CNBC bt Terri Keenan live in Seoul, and she said that the people there are bringing gold into the banks and the gold is being sold for "precious US dollars" to bring into the economy to give it a boost..I believe the lady has just coined a new term...!!!

Steve - Perth
(Fri Jan 02 1998 19:18 - ID#284177)
More musings from Larouche?
TONY PAPERT: Welcome to ``EIR Talks.'' This is Tony
Papert. I'm standing in for your regular host, Mel Klenetsky, and
Lyndon LaRouche has joined us on the telephone from Germany.
( 30th Dec. 97 )

Lyn, in these closing days and hours of 1997, the world is
focussed on a dramatic financial crisis in Korea. What's going on?

LYNDON LAROUCHE: Well, I'm not sure that I can say
everything, or should say everything that I believe about this,
because I-- this is a very sensitive operation, as I shall indicate,
and there may be intention in the mind of the relevant people of
the U.S. government, and others, which I could guess at--I won't
say I know it--but, I can guess at it, and since I'm kind of an
expert, people will react to what I guess, including some
adversarial forces, so I'll try not to give away anything which, of
my knowledge, or surmise, which might be useful to the
adversaries of the United States on this issue.

But, some things I feel free to say: First of all, as people know, on
this last Wednesday, just before Christmas, Christmas Eve, so to
speak, that, after a meeting involving the Secretary of the
Treasury, Bob Rubin, and the Finance Minister of the German
government, Theodore Waigel, that, not only did the United
States and Germany agree not to provide any more funding of an
immediate IMF bailout, but Rubin made a deathless statement,
that from his standpoint, not a nickel would be paid to the private
interests--to bail out the private interests, in this particular crisis,
and implicitly, comparable ones.

So, what you have to look at: There are three issues here, actually
four. Three issues up front, that are negative. First of all, which
has happened as a result of what Rubin did, is that the banks
around the world had a Christmas present thrown under their
tree, I don't think they particularly appreciated. That by saying
that the United States and Germany, among others, would not
bail out the situation with the funding, that is, the taxpayer was
not gonna be tapped to fund the bailout of banks, or private
interests, the banks were put in the position of having emergency
meetings in Tokyo, in Europe, and in New York--different groups
of bankers--among other places, and they were told that, in
effect, if you do not agree, you creditors of the Korean banks, to
extend the short-term obligations to, say, three years, without any
substantial increase in interest rates, say for three years of more
maturities, as a way of preventing a default in Korea, then there
will be a default! And, that would start a chain reaction under
which a lot of you bankers will go biting dust!

So, it was not--the Secretary of the Treasury didn't give them
orders to do that. What he did was to create a situation in which
they had no perceived alternative but to do that. And, the problem
is, they have to have this in place by Monday, whether they like it
or not, everyone of these banking syndicates which has
outstanding credit claims against the banks of Korea, is going to
have to accept this arrangement, or else, the whole thing will blow
up, and they will go down with the ship. So, they are having a
grand time right now, and there's a lot of resistance from Japan,
of course, among some factions, and so forth and so on.

Well, that's only the first step. Once we buy time, in a sense, by
freezing the obligations of the banks, the Korea banks, in that
way, by turning them into longer-term, or medium- to long-term
maturities, that buys time, maneuvering room, and in a sense, it
separates the debts of the Korea banks from the private corporate
interests of Korea. The problem is, there's been a highly
disorderly speculative activity, financial activity on the part of
some of the major trading companies in Korea. They have
uncounted undebtedness--we just don't have it--because a lot of it
lies in the futures or, a.k.a., derivatives area, and it's very difficult
to trace out these kinds of obligations, as to who owes what to

So, the position is implicitly, that down the line, it's going to come
to a question of whether the foreign creditors who can't get at the
Korean government, because it's not involved--it's not
guaranteeing this; they can't get at the Korea banks, the major
banks, because their situation is secured, and they go in to try to
get at the corporations, the private corporations, the private
interests. Well, in that case, the-- there are alternatives, which the
Korea government, with presumably, with the encouragement of
the United States and others, will take to reorganize the
obligations, financial organizations of the companies, that is, to
put them under the protection, the bankruptcy protection of the
Korea government, so the company can still continue to function.
Because we must avoid mass unemployment in Korea, which can
lead to an explosive social crisis, which can blow the whole
tinderbox up! And, we must get this inflation under control,
inflation which is caused by this artificial attack on the won.

Now, this comes to the won issue, itself. What we're at the point
that there was no--the crisis in Korea was not immediately the
making of Korea--Oh. We'll have to get back to this.

[commercial break]

- The Banks Have a Pistol to their Head! -

EIR: When we were interrupted by a commercial, Lyndon
LaRouche was telling us what's really going on in the Korean
financial crisis.

LYNDON LAROUCHE: As of Monday, there will be a situation.
What will have happened, will have happened. The banks have
until midnight Sunday, or something equivalent to that to come to
an agreement on a package of extending the maturities of the
obligations of the Korea banks, without consideration of whether
the government guarantees anything or not. And without any
significant increases in interest rates of the loans of those banks.
It's a defensive measure: The banks have a choice of accepting
that, or going under. That is, of setting off a chain reaction which
nobody can stop, which would mean that the banks of Japan, the
banks in part of the United States, but especially of Europe,
would go under in a real panic.

So, they've got a pistol to their head! And they have to perform.
And they have to perform by Sunday night. Any arguments they
want to have beyond Sunday, become rather moot because they
can be dead, in a sense, come Monday night, if they don't come
to these agreements. So, presumably, the banks are going to be
rational enough, that with all the kicking and screaming that some
of them might do, that as of Sunday night, or sometime
thereabouts, the impact of what was said by Secretary Rubin on
Wednesday will have taken effect, and we will have a temporary
or stop-gap blocking of the shedding of blood in that quarter, the
banking quarter.

We come to the next one, which is: What are we going to do
about the Korean corporate debt, of the trading companies?
That's more difficult. That would probably involve, somewhere
down the line, a large-scale bankruptcy reorganization, of that
debt. Not the liquidation of the companies, because the liquidation
of the companies means you crash the Korea economy, and that
has the very effect you're trying to avoid. So, therefore--and the
government can not come in and try to bail out that debt, because
it's too big, that is, the Korea government. No matter what the
IMF, Camdessus says, it can't be done. And it will not be done,
and must not be done. So, therefore, a lot of this debt is going to
disappear: it's going to evaporate! Or otherwise, a lot of the world
is going to evaporate. In bankruptcy reorganization: what'll
happen--it'll be--a bankruptcy protection will be supplied to
corporations, the corporations will continue to function, as in, say,
U.S. Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings. The managements will
be there. They will not sell their children into slavery to pay off
the debt. A lot of the debt will simply be frozen, and much of it,
later, written off.

But, that doesn't solve the final problem. The final problem is the
fact that the, as I said, the crisis is largely artificial. A great
structural weakness was built into the international financial
economic system over a period of 30 years, especially since
1971-72, with the inauguration of the so-called
floating-exchange-rate insanity as monetary policy. And that's
going to have to end.

But, the problem is, largely, that the--a group of
British-centered--including Soros, who is a British asset; he's
based in Anglo-Dutch interests in the West Indies, for example,
are his base of operations. His Eastern European operations are
British-controlled, as his Budapest operations. His operations in
Russia are British-controlled, as in other parts of Eastern Europe.
So, these British-controlled speculators, working together with
Swedish, some German, French, other interests have been
running a hedge-fund operation against Asian countries. They're
arguing that if they make a market, a speculative market in the
currency, the government of the country whose currency is the
target of speculation must write down the value of its currency,
and its assests denominated in that currency, to the price set by
these markets!

- A Little Bankruptcy is Good for Some People -

What would happen if we say, we don't pay any attention to
these markets? That the price of the currency is a pegged
currency? And whatever George Soros and his friends do is
irrelevant! If they come in and demand payment on a lower price,
because they rigged the currency in their market to a lower price,
``No, it doesn't function, Buddy! You go!''

``But,'' they say, ``well, we committed outselves on the
government's commitment to pay at this price.

``Well, the government's not gonna pay at that price! The
government's gonna protect itself with a currency at the price
before you speculative sharks came in to play this game with our
national currency!''

We had such a system before in the 1950s, for example, the
postwar period. We had limited convertibilities of currency. We
had pegged currencies. We had capital-movement controls, and it
worked. Without that, we would not have come out
economically, out of the aftermath of World War II, at least as a
global system. That's what saved the system, was the Bretton
Woods agreements, which operated into 1959, on that basis.
We're going to have to go back to that.

Now, how we get there, is what the tactical problem is. But,
we're going to have to get there very soon!

Now, once we get there, we've still got a problem: Suppose we
slap on exchange controls. Capital controls. Go back to pegged
currencies. Peg gold at $500 an ounce--which would be great
news for some of these characters, hmm? who are selling it short.
I'd love to do that to them--I'd like--people, when they play
games against nations, to catch them with their pants down:
Selling short? Put the price up! Let 'em try to buy their way back
in. Bankrupt them. A little bankruptcy is good for some people!

All right. So, the next phase, is how do we get the world economy
functioning above breakeven level. The aggravating problem is
that today, with the collapse of world trade, associated with the
crisis which is going on in, today in Southeast Asia, today in East
Asia, now in Korea, which will hit Brazil tomorrow, which is
hitting Eastern Europe, as in the case of Czechia, which is going
to hit Russia, etc., that the world is operating below a breakeven
point. So, we have to have an industrial expansion program,
including agricultural foodstuffs trade expansion, which means we
need large-scale projects to restimulate the world economy, to
bring economies back above breakeven.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 19:23 - ID#93130)
More ON Mt. Todd
G'Day HAGGIS: The Pegasus announcement implied that Mt. Todd was voluntarily placed in receivership to protect the assets. I know nothing of Australian law, but I presume this means that creditors cannot attach or levey on the property as easily as they could otherwise. I also presume that if it could be shown that continued operation of the mine would benefit creditors, ie a higher gold price, then Pegasus could place the mine in operation for the benefit of all concerned. Is this understanding correct, and if so, why are you so pessimistic that Mt. Todd has no future merely because it is placed on care and maintenance.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 19:27 - ID#227238)
NJ: Many thanks for the Ralph Nader story. It is delicious. Like Studio R, I never thought I would ever agree with R. Nader, on anything.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 19:42 - ID#426220)
The Year Ahead by the Astrological Investor

Mike Sheller kicks off the New Year with both a warning list of potential hotspots around the world, as well as his campy tribute to magazine horoscopes ( HEY-HEY, check out what the stars hold for YOU in 1998 ) . However, the serious business comes first, as he takes a look at some national horoscopes ( from Cambodia to the USA ) for some clues to future activities, which may affect the financial markets:

(Fri Jan 02 1998 19:53 - ID#210253)
Information Standard vs Gold Standard
Karlito99 et al

Here's a little Q&A piece in the fifth anniversary issue [1/98] of "Wired" magazine. Some relevance to recent discussions.

Q: Why is the power of the state in decline?

Walter Wriston: Money goes where it's wanted and stays where it is well treated, and that's all she wrote. This annoys governments to no end.

Stateless money functions as a plebiscite on your policy. There are 300,000 screens out there, lit up with all the news that traders need to make value judgements on how well you're running your economy.

Today, if the president goes into the Rose Garden and says something dumb, the cross rate of the dollar will change in 60 seconds.

The information standard is more draconian than the gold standard, because the government has lost control of the marketplace.

Technology has overwelmed public policy.

Q: As the power of sovereign governments wanes, who will be left in charge?

Walter Wriston: Everybody.

[Walter Wriston is longtime CEO of Citybank]

(Fri Jan 02 1998 19:56 - ID#398105)
Soros and LaRouche................Gold

Who controls the IMF............? Looks like Soros and LaRouche are "partial" goldbugs. Soros and LaRouche agree, and disagree. However,both see the merits of a GOLD STANDARD, the question is who is going to "control" it. My bet is on Rothchild/Soros. As Sting would say - "Is he ( Soros ) an Englishman in New York", looks like he his.


"The final problem is the fact that the, as I said, the crisis is largely artificial. A great structural weakness was built into the international financial economic system over a period of 30 years, especially since

1971-72, with the inauguration of the so-called floating-exchange-rate insanity as monetary policy. And that's going to have to end".

"But, the problem is, largely, that the--a group of British centered including Soros, who is a British asset; he's based in Anglo-Dutch interests in the West Indies............. "

(Fri Jan 02 1998 19:56 - ID#210253)

Citybank = Citibank

(Fri Jan 02 1998 19:57 - ID#432107)
Gold on a holiday
Gold has been on a holiday in the last week and a half. With a new year to look forward to, I see that predictions are abundant. Predictions ranging from $50.00 to $2000.00. I don't pretend to have a crystal ball, but I do know that as long as there are women in the world gold will always be a sought after precious commodity. Diamonds just don't look as nice in a plastic setting.

In the past Gold has moved in two to three year cycles with prices ranging between $280.00 to $480.00.

When the price gets to $480.00 experts will agree that the sky is the limit and people will again line up to buy it. When the price is near $280.00 experts will agree that it is a bad investment and people will shy away from it. These forms of predictions can be compared to the weather man who looks out the window to see if its raining or not. Thanks to people's short memories these experts remain in business.

1997 Has been marred with Central Banks bragging about how much gold they sold. With the pressent currency situation such a practice could only invite an attack on any Central Bank's dollar.

I'm placing my bet with gold in '98 because I can't find better odds elswhere.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 19:58 - ID#78116)
Sig_A and Walter Wriston
Thanks for the citation, I will have to pick up a copy of Wired....

I couldn't agree more with what Wriston has to say.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 19:58 - ID#398105)
Soros and LaRouche................Gold "Standard"

Who controls the IMF............? Looks like Soros and LaRouche are "partial" goldbugs. Soros and LaRouche agree, and disagree. However,both see the merits of a GOLD STANDARD, the question is who is going to "control" it. My bet is on Rothchild/Soros. As Sting would say - "Is he ( Soros ) an Englishman in New York", looks like he his.

"The final problem is the fact that the, as I said, the crisis is largely artificial. A great structural weakness was built into the international financial economic system over a period of 30 years, especially since
1971-72, with the inauguration of the so-called floating-exchange-rate insanity as monetary policy. And that's going to have to end"......
"But, the problem is, largely, that the--a group of British centered including Soros, who is a British asset; he's based in Anglo-Dutch interests in the West Indies............. "
"And whatever George Soros and his friends do is irrelevant! If they come in and demand payment on a lower price.........."
"Such a system before in the 1950s, for example, the postwar period. We had limited convertibilities of currency. We had pegged currencies. We had capital-movement controls, and it worked......"
"That's what saved the system, was the Bretton Woods agreements... We're going to have to go back to that. Now, how we get there, is what the tactical problem is. But, we're going to have to get there very soon! "
"Now, once we get there, we've still got a problem: Suppose we slap on exchange controls. Capital controls. Go back to pegged currencies. Peg gold at $500 an ounce--which would be great news for some of these characters, hmm? who are selling it short. I'd love to do that to them--I'd like--people, when they play games against nations, to catch them with their pants down: Selling short? Put the price up! Let 'em try to buy their way back in. Bankrupt them. A little bankruptcy is good for some people! "
"All right. So, the next phase, is how do we get the world economy
functioning above breakeven level......... So, we have to have an industrial expansion program......... to bring economies back above breakeven."

So the bottom line, gold has to partially come back up to say US$500 and be maintained, in order to "kill" speculation.
Aye, Haggis

(Fri Jan 02 1998 19:59 - ID#344308)

mike sheller--

please e-mail me your e-mail address....

i have a message for

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:06 - ID#287280)
Hong Kong property sector crisis worsens
FT Weekend

Hong Kong home buyers are walking away from their deposits as the territory's property slump deepens. Home prices in Hong Kong have fallen about 20 per cent from their summer peak as a result of the Asian financial crisis and the new government's policy of increasing supply. The announcement yesterday of a massive urban renewal programme
to build almost 10,000 flats brought new gloom to retrenching estate agents.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:07 - ID#78116)
Haggis Watch Out for Mr. LaRouche
To say that he is a little flaky is to greatly understate the case. He is in jail now and will hopefully remain there for some time to come.

But he does raise a good issue: The insanity of floating exchange rates.

What should replace a floating exchange rate system. How can governments possibly control a multi-trillion dollar a day market. The government of the Societ Union could not set the price of something as simple as bread. Their sad attempts at price setting over the decades led to the total bankruptcy of Russia. And yet, totalitarians like LaRouche tell us that governments should come in and set the price of money. The will never be able to do it.

Once some commodity is lost into cyberspace it can never return. Stock trading, bank transactions, retail orders are all done automatically and electronically. You can not reclaim these back. The same is true of currencies. They are lost into a market of thousands of traders who will continue to do their thing regardless of whhat governments say. It really is the greatest break down in government authority in the history of the nation state.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:07 - ID#364147)
James.............................from the wrong Island
I'd put me money on 'Sir John' too!!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:08 - ID#78116)
Templeton vs Peutz
Always take Sir James over Sir Putz.....

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:09 - ID#398105)
Skylark and Pegasus


I can only reiterate that the primary problem at Mt Todd is operations, and the secondary issue is the gold price. A solution to the secondary issue, even back to US$350 per oz gold may not necessarily solve the primary problem.

Read all about it............

Aye, Haggis

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:11 - ID#364147)
This weekend I'm rootin fer: Chiefs,Bucs,Pats and the Vikings ( thus they'll all probably lose ) ---go Vols~~~~~

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:12 - ID#364147)
Karlito................................and Sir John
But it's a close call.....

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:15 - ID#364147)
Any other SBC shareholders 'out there'

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:19 - ID#402183)
Well, I'm pulling for the 49ers, Packers, Steelers, and Broncos. Could it be that I'm your evil twin from a parallel dimension?

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:20 - ID#398105)
Aussie Gold Stocks - J Gutnick, including Great Central MInes

For those interested in well funded Aussie gold stocks, check this out.

Companies include:

Great Central Mines Limited

Centaur Mining & Exploration Limited

Astro Mining N.L.

Mt. Kersey Mining N. L.

Australian Gold Resources Limited

Australia Wide Industries Limited

Johnson's Well Mining N. L.

Quantum Resources Limited

Aye, Haggis

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:21 - ID#364147) evil twin
This is WAR dude~~~~~~~~~~

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:22 - ID#347457)
@Dave. KCTrader, and Y2K
Dave, I didn't deal directly with POC systems for credit cards, so I am not going to make statements based on my personal experience. Talking to people involved in retail, there are two aspects of accepting credit card. One is a direct verification through a clearing house ( this was solved in most cases ) and processing it through the in-house system which still may ask for the expiration date and reject the acceptance of card which "expired" because it's 100 years old.

Yes, you can cheat and say the expiration date is 98 or 99, however, the store is exposing itself to a fraud and if card was used in "unauthorized" mode ( e.g., stolen ) the store will have a legal problem to collect the payment ( as data entered is not valid ) .

As far as testing goes, yes, most of the companies may not finish all testing and catch potential problems. Testing won't catch up all the problems anyway - it's suppose to increase the level of confidence that the system functions according to specifications. What bothers me more, is that many companies don't do performance or stress testing. Y2K correction will introduce additional code and/or increase the I/Os due to expanding the length of date fields. In many systems, the processing is already utilizing the maximum of system resources ( or uses the maximum of available time window for a batch processing ) .

It does not help that the system functions properly if it can not process all transaction on time ( processing will create a bottleneck and the system may "give up" or miss the time window ) . This is a typical queuing problem which you may experience here and there in Internet and e-mail. ( e.g. AOL shut down for a few days not able to process all e-mail traffic ) Well, again e-mail is inconvenience, moving money around is much more serious issue!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:26 - ID#364147)
WSJ and Asian Currencies

January 2, 1998

Rupiah Falls on S&P Downgrade;
Ringgit, Philippine Peso Also Fall


The Indonesian rupiah fell sharply against the dollar Friday on a ratings
downgrade, and Malaysian and Philippine currencies also fell as trading
resumed in parts of Asia after the New Year's holiday.

Financial markets remained closed in Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand and
South Korea and Thailand.

The rupiah's decline was attributed to a negative market reaction to
Wednesday's downgrade of Indonesia's sovereign rating by Standard &
Poor's, as well as to bearish sentiment to the region overall.

Investors also said that the rupiah's rise Wednesday because of
central-bank intervention was seen as overdone, while skepticism toward
Indonesia's economic-reform programs is growing.

"We basically want to see if Indonesia will do anything to achieve the
necessary compliance with the International Monetary Fund," said the
head of Asian currency trading at a major German bank here. "The rupiah
direction hangs on this" he said.

In late Jakarta trading, the dollar was quoted at 5725 rupiah in the spot
market, above 4,550 rupiah late Wednesday. The foreign-exchange
market was closed Thursday for the New Year's holiday.

Investors are now focusing on Tuesday's budget announcement by
President Suharto as a potential forum to restore some confidence in the
rupiah. They are looking for the government's commitment to cut spending,
raise tax revenue, and do away with wasteful programs.

Dealers noted that Jakarta court's decision Tuesday to delay the
liquidation of PT Bank Jakarta -- owned by Suharto's half-brother
Probosutedjo -- has hurt market sentiment. The bank was one of 16
slated for liquidation under the International Monetary Fund's $33 billion
bailout package.

"Continued corporate dollar demand for rupiah, combined with moves like
this, are killing the rupiah," said a Singapore foreign-exchange dealer at a
European bank.

The Malaysian ringgit tumbled to a new low against the dollar after
investors bought dollars in anticipation of increased corporate demand for
the U.S. currency over the next quarter.

In late trading, the dollar was quoted at 3.9575 ringgit, up from 3.8755
ringgit late Wednesday. The previous all-time low for the ringgit was
3.9250 to the dollar, reached two weeks ago.

The Philippine peso also briefly slid to a record low against the U.S. dollar
in heavy trading.

The dollar averaged 41.078 pesos at the close on the Philippine Dealing
System, compared with 40.116 pesos on Monday, the latest previous
session. But it rose briefly as high as 41.80 pesos, surpassing the previous
record low of 41.60 pesos to the dollar on Dec. 17.

Return to top of page
Copyright  1998 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:29 - ID#398105)


Weel, it is a pleasant 35 deg C here in Kalgoorlie today, the sun is shining.

WHO ARE the 49ers, Packers, Steelers, and Broncos. LaCrosse teams?!!

Aye, Haggis

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:30 - ID#364147)
Haulpak...........................the evil twin
I presume you are for the 'Cornhuskers'

Steve - Perth
(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:31 - ID#284177)
Point of Clarification
When I post various items ( eg Larouche ) , it does NOT mean that I
agree with the points of view raised necessarily. I post material
that makes one think. As I like to flush things out. Your response
is just as valuable as what I post. However, do not assume that
your point of view is totally correct either. For example, Larouche
has been released from jail, I believe a year or so ago. If he
hadn't been put in jail, he probably wouldn't have had so much
publicity. However, he does have some VERY interesting contacts
with some VERY interesting information. I don't believe Soros
either. He is a good tool for the globalists.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:32 - ID#364147)
Haggis...snap out of it
U.S.of A football ( not damn soccer! ) teams~~~~~~uggggg

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:33 - ID#398105)


WHO ARE the Chiefs,Bucs,Pats and the Vikings. North American football teams?!

Aye, Haggis

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:35 - ID#153111)
Y1.998K problem
It seems Kitco is haveing a computer problem with 1998.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:39 - ID#398105)
haulpak and Ted

A new piece of culture for your lives..............

Aye, Haggis

ps you cannot win all the time!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:41 - ID#153111)
Gold V US$ and currency gods
Recently there were some excellent items on gold and the central banks by Markus Angelicus and John Kutyn. After giving the efforts of these gentlemen some thought, I decided to give an input on these subjects. I'm inclined to hitch my fate to the precious yellow. There are some reasons for this, one is that the banks once before tried to suppress the price of gold during the days of the "London Gold Pool" in the early and middle 1960's. They cried "Uncle" after a long and valiant attempt to keep gold at US$35.00, then Uncle Sam himself called it quits in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window to foreign bank conversion of US dollars for US gold. To date no one on earth has proven that they were bigger than the markets, ask the Rockefellers, OPEC or any other cartel in the history of mankind. Control is a temporary thing. DeBeers seems to be the most successful to date but their control stemmed from their control of S. Africa's diamond fields. Diamonds are not as rare as once thought nor are they only found in S. Africa. I suspect they will one day lose control of the price of diamonds as production comes to the market place from sundry other countries out side of Debeers' cartel.

The issue of gold being made illegal and a one world currency is forced upon the world I think would be very difficult to achieve. China, India, and many former colonies of the Europeans nations may not want to play that game, also Japan is getting tired of being The United States Government's little whipping boy. Lord knows these countries have more than a little blame for the condition they find themselves in, however, if their politicians are worth their salt, they will find someone to place all the blame on for their current problems. The long gone colonial masters would be perfect, blame it on the British, they are so sneaky! It will not be harder to whip up the masses in SE Asia against the "New World Currency" ( same as the New World Order ) than it is to whip up hatred for the CIA for selling crack cocaine in South Central L.A. It might even be true but really who cares in South Central L.A. They're mad and upset and just need someone or something to strike out against, the CIA will do. I believe that the majority of the world population lies outside the control of the Rothschilds and George Soros. If the third world refuses to do business with this new fiat currency and insist upon a currency that meets with their approval, and it will be in the interest of the Pacific Nations to insist upon a fair playing field when doing business with the Atlantic Nations, what would the new currency gods do? Not sell them cars, computers, steel, oil? The Third world is no longer an area that lacks world class production capability, they can go it alone if need be. There are going to be some problems for a cabal to force a undesirable currency upon what will one day be a solvent S.E. Asia. In Malaysian and other SE Asian nations news papers I see on the Internet it seems that they are rather peeved at George Soros right now, I don't think they would buy a used car from George let alone a new fiat currency. The worlds Muslims, Buddhist, Hindus, and Chinese have no cultural connections with Jewish bankers. How would anyone push around billions of people who are economically formidable on their own right and demand respect? The moneyed jews in the middle ages could tell the Rothschilds a thing or two about doing business in a hostile culture. You don't make King Richard do anything in Merry old England. But then, I suspect that the House of Rothschilds may already know this.

I like a good conspiracy theory as well as anyone, but the after 1,500 years of worrying about Jewish bankers, I for one would enjoy a conspiracy with Italians or Gentile New Yorkers for a change. Lets not forget those Arkansas financiers, lawyers and Razor back chicken interest, now there is a prospect where one could find paydirt!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:48 - ID#364147)
Couldn't access that little piece of culture you tried ta post...

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:48 - ID#398105)
haulpak & = life..........see you later, have a nice day

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:50 - ID#267276)
Reliving the past
All of you who are now living in october 97 sell your gold now and wait for jan.98

(Fri Jan 02 1998 20:58 - ID#255284)
lilt of the kilt
Ted: The Glasgow Rangers, oor Haggis is Glaswegian. Och aye the noo.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 21:03 - ID#426220)

THE GOLD-EAGLE monthly spotlight for insightful market commentary and analysis BEAMS AGAIN on John Kutyn for his analysis FINANCIAL COLLAPSE: THE DEATH SPIRAL. With exceptionally clear vision he cuts to the chase in the WHY of Korean Banking and Corporation failures. Further he demonstrates how the Domino Effect will cause the teetering Japanese and Chinese Banking Systems to fall.

To review this insightful prophetic treatise of the Asian Domino Effect and its inevitable consequences, go the following Internet location, and once there CLICK on John Kutyns DECEMBER plaque:

(Fri Jan 02 1998 21:11 - ID#30238)'s so quiet............
.........I can hear the sound of an ounce of gold drop .......................
......ka-plonk----hold on, was that the sound of it hitting 'bottom'?

(Fri Jan 02 1998 21:15 - ID#364147)

(Fri Jan 02 1998 21:16 - ID#267276)
Larouch and Soros
Larouch has been out of jail for years. You may be able to find a weekly yet dated tv show of his on community access cable. Anyway if you read his weekly radio interview on his web site you will see that he thinks Soros is a patsey for the rothchilds. He cant stand Soros.
Personally I never know if Soros is telling the truth or spreading misinformation. I think its 50/50. He's like betting on the Giants.As far as Larouche goes he did correctly predict last Feb. that the asians would have a currency crises in Oct. and he was right on the money.
We never need to read novels !

Dave in CO
(Fri Jan 02 1998 21:17 - ID#215211)
@Ted - Karlito gets the nod over Sir John
Karlito made one mistake in 30 years and that was Puetz's fault.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 21:19 - ID#364147)
Dave in Co
Hey,noones perfect......

Bill Buckler
(Fri Jan 02 1998 21:20 - ID#257234)
Present US Debt Ceiling
Silver Plate ( 18:44 ) The current Treasury Debt Ceiling is $US 5.95 Trillion. It was raised from $US 5.5 Trillion in August 1997.

For a history of the debt ceiling going back to 1940, see:

(Fri Jan 02 1998 21:27 - ID#267276)
Although the official debt may be close to $6trillion, if you count in unfunded pensions and the IOUs in the Social Security fund, you will be closer to $18trillion.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 21:29 - ID#267276)
Oh yea!
I forgot that the surplus in the present social security payments that is put into the general fund is counted as income thus reducing the deficit.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 21:29 - ID#255284)
What does't prophet an aurator to speak so?

"If you can keep your head, when all about your are losing theirs
and blaming it on you..."

Young Rudi Kipples

The following exerpt from The Defeat of The Spanish Armada by Garret Mattingley, 1959 London, throws light on several issues discussed here including: the belief in Biblical ( or any other ) prophecy, belief in numerology, in astrology, in cycles, the portents of eclipses and super nova and of course, the millenium.

Another cloud lay over the coming year ( 1588 ) , more mysterious and more terrifying than that of war. It had been discerned over a century before, perhaps many centuries before, and as 1588 approached the awful rumour of impending disaster spread throughout western Europe. Basically the prophecy of doom depended on the numerology of the Revelation of St John, clarified ( if that is the word ) by hints in Daniel xii, and reinforced by a blood-curdling passage in Isaiah. To those who had sufficiently studied the question there seemed to be no doubt that all history since the first year of our Lord was divided into a series of cycles, complicated permutations of multiple of ten and seven, each cycle terminated by some gigantic event, and the whole series closing with awful finality in1588.

Philip Melancthon observed that the penultimate cycle had ended in 1518 with Martin Luthers defiance of the Pope, and from that event there remained only a final cycle of ten times seven years, the length of the Babylonian captivity, until the seventh seal should be opened, anti-Christ be overthrown and the Last Judgement be at hand. In the midst of their afflictions zealous Protestants had for many years found a grim comfort in Melancthons prediction, and jingles stating the gist of it in German, Dutch, French and English had long been current.

But the prophecy was much older than Melancthon. In the mid-fifteenth century Johan Muller of Konigsberg, known as Regiomontanus, the great mathematician who provided Columbus and a whole generation of navigators with astronomical tables, has his curiosity aroused by it and was led to draw up a picture of the heavens for the fatal year. He found it would be ushered in by an eclipse of the sun in February and marked by two total eclipses of the moon, one in March and one in August, while at the time of the first, and for some time thereafter, Saturn, Jupiter and Mars would hang in ominous conjunction in the moons own house. While all this seemed to mean Regiomontanus set down, with due professional caution in resonant Latin verse:
{Note, I resist the temptation to bore yall with resonant Latin verse and just present the translation}

A thousand years after the virgin birth
and after five hundred more allowed the globe,
the wonderful eighty-eighth year begins and
brings with it woe enough. If, this year,
total catastrophe does not befall, if land
and sea do not collapse into total ruin, yet
will the whole world suffer upheavals, empires
will dwindle and from everywhere will
be great lamentation.

...When the most modern science and the profoundest esoteric learning chimed so exactly with scriptural numerology, what could anyone conclude except that 1588 was indeed a year of dire portent? It was even pointed out that the new star of 1572 ( the first such appearance in the eternal and incorruptible heavens since a star had shown over Bethlehem ) had blazed in mens sight for seventeen lunar months and then vanished twice seven years before the first lunar eclipse predicted for 1588, and one hundred and seventy lunar months plus one hundred and eleven days before the second. Little reflection was needed to grasp the significance of these apocalyptic numbers, and little science and less piety to appreciate that the strange star had come as a herald and a warning....

These prophecies were spread from one end of Europe to another...
...In the second edition of Holinsheds Chronicles ( 1587 ) ,...had included a solemn reference to the ancient prophecy now so rife in every mouth that in the year of wonders, supposed to be 1588, either a final dissolution or horrible alteration of the world was to be expected.

London emptied as rumours of the advancing fleet ran far ahead of the threat. At that time you could buy any property, personal or real for a penny in the pound, and the seller would look at you as if you were mad. Why buy before the end of the world?

----How do you know that what you know is not what you believe?--------


( anyone dare a pigeon latin translation of that? ) he he

(Fri Jan 02 1998 21:34 - ID#352177)
Buried in the Soros article in Financial Times, Hedgehog 18:04, is the following statement. "Since we are in the middle of a crisis it is impossible to predict how it will play itself out. There are other shoes that may yet drop, notably China."

With a larger GDP and no defense obligations to the U.S., they are unlikely to be compliant with concepts such as bail out loans and accompanying arm twisting by the IMF.

silver plate
(Fri Jan 02 1998 21:39 - ID#289468)
Thank you for that great debt ceiling site. Those astronomical numbers
seem to have little meaning in todays world. And the balanced budget and or budget surplus BS coming from washington is mouthed by the media and
and hardly anybody refutes the facts. Onward and upward, what's a
quadrillion or so debt? We can handle it.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 21:44 - ID#427357)

CNBC TV financial celebrity and national investment newsletter analyst shares his considered opinions about all the markets with us... his first rays of 1998 wisdom:

(Fri Jan 02 1998 21:44 - ID#352177)
Gold is up a little in Asia and the village idiot is silent.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 21:45 - ID#352177)
The url again

(Fri Jan 02 1998 21:55 - ID#401460)
Oct. 2, 1997 Does this mean another market crash?
How do I get back into 1998? I entered cyber space in 98, I think, then I made the mistake of trying to go back to 6pm 1/2/98.

I feel younger!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 22:02 - ID#401460)
How do you go back to 18:04 or any post in a previous time period?

(Fri Jan 02 1998 22:09 - ID#28585)
It's late at night and I just can't sleep
My proboscis is tingling so hard I can almost weep
The last time it felt like this was in '93
The last time gold shot up to the nth degree
So get ready for fireworks, if you please
It's the start of an amazing gold short squeeze
There'll be panicky Wall Street geeks who'll be wetting their pants
There'll be frustrated investment bankers throwing wild rants
Thousands of investors will be shocked, they'll be crying
They'll all want to hang their brokers by their New Paradigm
"Why did you invest us in derivatives and junk?"
"Why did you sell us on New Era bunk?"
Then they'll warn their children until the day they grow old
You're a lot better off investing in gold.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 22:14 - ID#427357)

Much has been made of the downward plunge in gold prices during 1996 and 1997. Monetary officials as well as government officials around the world have advertised the fact and led the public at large to believe that this drop is an indication that fiat
megabyte money is "King of the Hill", that all is well with our
monetary system, and that we will all live happily ever after. It is the author's hope that THIS PAPER HAS DISPELLED THIS MYTH in the mind's of the people who read it.

Analyst Miller sees regent years IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE in paper assets ( stocks & bonds ) as a new chapter for the classic work Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. He, like George Bernard Shaw, votes for GOLD:

"If you have to choose between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability and intelligence of the members of the government. And with due respect to these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold."

The Summary includes an extensive SUGGESTED READING LIST, his recommended Internet Gold Links, and other pertinent information sources:

(Fri Jan 02 1998 22:26 - ID#344308)


(Fri Jan 02 1998 22:28 - ID#29082)
I cannot stifle the smart a_ _ impulse to tell you that "We know we are right this time". Think or Know? Heck, we have been buying gold as it fell in price over $100, yet we all KNOW that it will go up again ; ) . We are Homo Sapiens with a built in capability for both faith and knowledge. Pick a theory and drive off with it, make course corrections as necessary. It's easier to turn a moving car, than one that's parked, with a driver who won't move, for fear of being wrong.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 22:31 - ID#257148)
Access to Kitco
go here to access a temporary mirror site, courtesy of CJS
and follow instructions.

You gotta great Home page CJS.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 22:34 - ID#177109)
nice piece on 1588. and now in our time of need we are selling gold for what it will bring and buying bonds, backed by dollars? extraordinary and popular delusions revisited.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 22:39 - ID#257148)
Just another face in the human race.......

Yes we are human beans with the capacity for knowledge, faith, and I would add, self-delusion.
The self-delusion that is at the heart of this board is of course, that a few pompous men and women can utter the untruth that gold has no monetary value, that they can say it for so long and so frequently that others are caught in the delusion.. The delusion is now entering its manic phase, panic selling by CB dupes of the only item of value in their treasuries. The only item of value.

One day a child will ask "What's in Fort Knox, Dad?" And Dad will reply "Nothing, we sold all our gold for SDRs, son. Because it was a better class of paper than our $." The child will look amazed "Look, Dad, the Emperor has no clothes."

aurator streaking across the heavens

(Fri Jan 02 1998 22:48 - ID#42371)
Gold down, gold stocks up...
Gold finished down a bit, but my Canadian Gold stocks went up a bit! These stocks are on rubber bands, a good move up in gold will blast them off.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 22:53 - ID#401460)
Ther is some strong interest!
Very Interesting, only one in the red.^XAU+ASA+ABX+BMG+BGO+ECO+HL+HM+NEM+PGU+PDG+RYO+TVX+^HUI+AEM+CDE+FCX+GLG+KGC+WMC&detailed=f

aurator: THANKS

(Fri Jan 02 1998 22:58 - ID#42371)
farfel..Kitco poet laureate
May the gold gods have their hearts warmed by your poetry and restore the noble metal to it's rightful place.

John Disney__A
(Fri Jan 02 1998 22:58 - ID#24140)
Don't mess with Mr Regiomontanus

For Salty

It all depends how you look at it. From the Spanish viewpoint, it

did mark the beginning of the decline of an empire.

Regiomontanus was a helluva guy. And his son, Joe, was a great



(Fri Jan 02 1998 23:01 - ID#398105)
John Disney..............


The following URL is for Kalgoorlie Consolidated Goldmines.

I have had a wee bit of trouble access this, perhaps you will have better luck.

Aye, Haggis

(Fri Jan 02 1998 23:01 - ID#401460)
Trying to Get Back Again?
Back to the Future - I hope?

(Fri Jan 02 1998 23:04 - ID#411233)
Exactly what I've been thinking, "BIG BOYS" are getting positioned.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 23:04 - ID#42371)
Malfunction, malfunction...
As we poor goldies don't have enough to contend with, now our site is self-destructing....

(Fri Jan 02 1998 23:11 - ID#398105)


Aye, born and raised in Glasgow, Uni at Stratclyde and School of Mines in London, 10 years in Africa, 12 years in Aussie - I MUST be a "NEW AGE" Glaswegian..........does such a "THING" exist!!!!! If it does I'm certainly one of a kind!

Aye, Haggis

(Fri Jan 02 1998 23:12 - ID#256201)
ALL:re 1998 problems
Bart left a post before New Years in which he stated the forum is on auto-pilot. It will be less effective, but all things will be straightened out after the crew returns to work this coming Monday! That's why you cannot access yesterday's or earlier posts. Be patient!!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 23:16 - ID#257148)
"wet" t-shirt competition
Hi Crusty

A new mantra for tolerant1
"Get Regiomontanus"

actually that joins these nausiating aphorisms that never made the gold bug t-shirt.
Please feel free to add your own. Perhaps Mike Sheller could be persuaded to donate a real goldbug t-shirt to the "best" of the worst"

Gold is great
Gold is really heavy, man.
Im a Goldbug, I like Goldbuggery.
Dont be yella; buy the yellow

contributions please:

(Fri Jan 02 1998 23:20 - ID#257148)
a.j. patience my arxe. have a look here, you can see earlier posts, search for Arkansas, ol redneckbuddy


(Fri Jan 02 1998 23:22 - ID#252127)

Keep Em'coming and please accept my apology for my "EL Gee Bee twooo" type past response. May LGB? and Karlito fly in a helicopter over thge Indonesian Jungle now engulfed in the black smoke of El NiNo and launch themselves, er.... their new newsletter for all to see their mettle.

John Disney__A
(Fri Jan 02 1998 23:25 - ID#24140)
Get ready to RUMBLE

How about ...

It'll be ah thrillah an a chillah

when ah buy gole in Manillah


(Fri Jan 02 1998 23:36 - ID#252127)
Bob M

Of the large quantitiies of gold that were supposedly transshiped via South Korea; very little ever left that land. What was secretely held is now reputed to be given by nationalistic citizens. I think not.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 23:37 - ID#256201)
ya be rite ol' bud. ah misd thet un. thanx fer pointin' it out!!
I read the post, but forgot to follow through on it. You have done several folks a favor by pointing this out to them. ( and me tu. ( :+^}[ )

(Fri Jan 02 1998 23:37 - ID#29082)
What doesn't kill us makes us stronger...
My ISP is run by gnomes and elves. My patience is the only thing that has been tested thoroughly. Now my son has a new game "Trophy Bass 2", and I must cede time on the computer. GO GOLD and SILVER! I'll be back Saturday, maybe.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 23:37 - ID#255151)
Birthday Boy

Howdy fellow Kitcoites. Tired after another 12 hour shift, but have some time off now. Just turned 30 today for the 16th year in a row. Here's to a prosperous 1998. Go GOLD!

(Fri Jan 02 1998 23:43 - ID#252150)
Speed & Ted
Speed, love your analogy "It's easier to turn a moving car than 1 that's parked, with a driver who won't move, for fear of being wrong".

Ted ,I would'nt say that you are on the wrong island. Well...maybe for 7 months of the year.

I've been a big Templeton fan since the mid 80's when I was selling mutual funds. Do you remember the Bhopal tragedy in India. One of Union Carbide's chemical plants blew up & several hundred were killed ( took 2.5 seconds for their birth rate to replace them ) . U.C. went down around 35% & Templeton bought with both hands. 1 year later it recovered all it's losses. I put many people into Templeton & they've made a lot of money. Too bad I did'nt take my own advice.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 23:50 - ID#398105)
Check out Johnson's Well Mining.......early days

John Disney__A
(Fri Jan 02 1998 23:50 - ID#24140)
the Information standard - delayed reaction
Some worthy chap recently posted that we were on the

INFORMATION standard. Now THAT REALLY takes first

prize !!

What about the Mexican collapse, the Korean collapse

, the Barings failure, the latest brokerage house failure

in Japan, or the Bre-x scam - Where was the ADVANCE


To the extent there was any, you can be sure that it

went to a select few to give them time to get out,

before it ever went to the poor dreamer that posted

such pap. Old buddy, you will have free access to all

the information you want provided that it is either

irrelevant or misleading.

IF anything, we're on an overall DISinformation

standard - but dont worry - it's backed up by

worthless financial instruments - and when THEY prove

useless, our ultimate fallback is paper to be printed

in the future.

I think whoever wrote that little nonsense offerring

has something interesting to look forward to.

(Fri Jan 02 1998 23:58 - ID#255284)
Hey Auric Happy Birthday Mate! Top off a great day with an entry in the Great Kitco "Wet" T-shirt Competition. You could win really really good prizes...