Feeling a little mellow tonight ( after a few micro brews & some very nice California Cabernet Sauvignon ) & thought I would post something that will put our quest for money & security in perspective... For my Kitco friends, including Disney.
"We cannot put off living until we are ready. The most salient characteristic of life is it's coerciveness: it's always urgent 'here & now' without any possible postponement. Life is fired at us point blank".
-Jose Ortega y Gasset.
What happened here may be seen as a small sample dress rehearsal for the real Y2K, but the problem would have been fixed first thing in the morning had our offices been opened. I think that'll be the typical situation for the vast majority of Y2K glitches; short-lived minor irritation but hardly armageddon.
I bet a lot of computer techies are going to be carrying around beepers on the Y2K new year's eve. I hope that amongst themselves they can choose a "designated programmer".
With respect to gold and Y2K I would probably consider this investment strategy: IF the gold price begins a dramatic climb correlating with the year 2000 media reports that are bound to increase exponentially as the countdown changes from weeks to days, then short the metal at the very end of Dec 1999. Definitely protect yourself with an appropriate stop loss , but the reasoning has been proven in the past.
Several weeks before the gulf war broke out gold went from $370 to over $400 on the uncertainty that there may be an actual war. It dropped over $20 on the first day of the news that the war had actually begun. There was no more uncertainty. With the Y2K problem the day that the uncertainty will vanish is almost as predictible as when the year 2000 will arrive.
I encourage anyone to re-post these URLs so that they appear at least once in each time slot until Jan 5, when our programmer should save everyone the trouble:
http://www.kitcomm.com/cgi-bin/discussion/display_short_new.cgi ( allows you to view all of 1998, but not post )
OR
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/display.htm ( Courtesy of CJS - allows you to post as well )
We have been making the distinction between "paper" money and "hard" money. Actually there are three separate types of money: paper money that we still use most of the time for small transactions, gold, and the electronic ( plastic ) money that our goverments want us all to use.
So there are three types of money:
electronic money
paper money
gold/ ( or hard money ) .
Now, there is yet another problem when we talk about inflation and deflation. Are we referring to the paper dollar, or the electronic dollar? For example -- does M2 or M3 really mean anything if we are talking about electronic money? We are reasonably certain that there are rules to be followed with the explansion/contraction of the paper money supply, but where are the rules to be followed for electronic money? What keeps some enterprising central banker from contracting/expanding the electronic money at will?
My suspicion is that with the right kind of computer system, the electronic money could be dynamically controlled, and it is probably happening right now! In reality the US dollar is probably almost entirely electronic, and not paper any more.
The implications of this are that this is a "boon" for a competent central banker such as AG. But -- with the access to a high performance sporty model of money control such as this, the responsibility is very great. It frightens me to imagine what could happen if a less competent individual was at the helm of our money supply.
Also -- it frightens me to think just how far our central bankers could go with a high performance dollar supply -- uncharted territory, where the driver could fall off a cliff!
I recall reading several articles that stated that the US government could not control the price of the dollar in the open market -- this probably puts an upper limit on just how expandible/contractible the dollar money supply is - right now. It would be interesting to see if anyone knows how the e-money rules are maintained in the computers. Something that important should be traceable to the financial equivalent of the "National Bureau of Standands". Perhaps ANOTHER was closer to the mark than we thought -- just replace "dollar" with "e-dollar" in his posts.
G'Day,
"The Alchemy of Finance": George Soros, 1987, 1994. Chapters 18 & 19.
"The creation of an International Central Bank does not constitute a permanent solution. Indeed,the very idea that it constitutes a permanent solution carries with it the seeds of the next crisis" - page 344.
In outlining his general views, Mr Soros focused upon exchange rates, international debt, and oil. He discusses the requirement to stabilise the relative values of the major currencies AND all others, if inflation and deflation excesses are to be avoided on a world scale. GOLD has served as a stabiliser throughout history and "IT MAY PLAY THAT ROLE AGAIN IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER" - Page 329 para 2. ( Certainly not on the derivative/futures market ) .
According to Mr Soros, " An International Currency........would be based upon a buffer stock scheme for oil.........the unit of account would be based upon oil..........the price of oil would be
All: Please beware another gold bear cycle -- if the equity markets do tank, gold will be fair game again! Good thing that silver seems to be out of the limelight in such matters.
G'Day,
"The Alchemy of Finance": George Soros, 1987, 1994. Chapters 18 & 19.
"The creation of an International Central Bank does not constitute a permanent solution. Indeed,the very idea that it constitutes a permanent solution carries with it the seeds of the next crisis" - page 344.
In outlining his general views, Mr Soros focused upon exchange rates, international debt, and oil. He discusses the requirement to stabilise the relative values of the major currencies AND all others, if inflation and deflation excesses are to be avoided on a world scale. GOLD has served as a stabiliser throughout history and "IT MAY PLAY THAT ROLE AGAIN IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER" - Page 329 para 2. ( Certainly not on the derivative/futures market ) . According to Mr Soros, " An International Currency........would be based upon a buffer stock scheme for oil.........the unit of account would be based upon oil..........the price of oil would be kept sta
G'Day,
"The Alchemy of Finance": George Soros, 1987, 1994. Chapters 18 & 19.
"The creation of an International Central Bank does not constitute a permanent solution. Indeed,the very idea that it constitutes a permanent solution carries with it the seeds of the next crisis" - page 344. In outlining his general views, Mr Soros focused upon exchange rates, international debt, and oil. He discusses the requirement to stabilise the relative values of the major currencies AND all others, if inflation and deflation excesses are to be avoided on a world scale. GOLD has served as a stabiliser throughout history and "IT MAY PLAY THAT ROLE AGAIN IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER" - Page 329 para 2. ( Certainly not on the derivative/futures market ) . According to Mr Soros, " An International Currency...would be based upon a buffer stock scheme for oil..the unit of account would be based upon oil...the price of oil would be kept stable by the buffer stock sch
I admire the way that Vronsky ( who performs a service
for all of use ) does not respond whenever the critical
and tasteless cat calls of those ( who perform NO service
for anyone ) are heard. I believe that displays
grace and class.
Keep up the good work, mi amigo, ignore the meaningless
yelps of the jackals. Those who should shine your shoes
are snapping at your heels.
Debt figures posted at
ReutersNews: @ 1/2/98 - FIRST DEFAULT ON GOLD PAYMENTS
"CONSOLIDATED-NEVADA DEFAULTS ON GOLD LOAN TO ING FINANCIAL GROUP"
THIS IS MONUMENTAL NEWS! It is testament to the well-grounded suspicions of many experts that there will be many GOLD LOAN DEFAULTS, forcing Central Banks and large commercial banks to EAT the Gold Loans extended.
Please recall ING is the large international group which picked up Barings Bank's marbles when it failed a couple or so years ago due to non-traditional banking operations and a rogue trader!!! This was a 200 year-old English bank.
Is this the first crack in the dike which WILL cause the deluge run on GOLD, as frantic international bankers and Central Bankers begin to cover their very exposed financial BUTTS? Gold Loans/Leasing is considered by many professional observers as NOT CONSERVATIVE NOR TRADITIONAL BANKING OPERATIONS.
This begs - NO DEMANDS - the crucial questions:
SHOULD CENTRAL BANKS BE ALLOWED TO SPECULATE WITH THE PUBLIC'S MONEY IN THE COMMODITIES MARKETS? INDEED, ARE CENTRAL BANKERS EVEN QUALIFIED FOR THESE HIGHLY RISKY COMMODITY MARKET OPERATIONS? ARE THESE TRADITIONAL CONSERVATIVE BANKING OPERATIONS? WHY ARE THESE NON-BANKING TRANSACTIONS NOT REVIEWED BY CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE TO ENSURE AS TO THEIR PRUDENCE AND SAFETY? WHAT COULD BE THE DIRE CONSEQUENCES IF THE FED MISCALCULATES IN ITS GOLD SPECULATIONS? COULD THIS RESULT IN ANOTHER S&L DEBACLE, COSTING THE PUBLIC HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF TAXPAYERS' HARD EARNED MONEY? WHO IS TO BE HELD IN ACCOUNT IF ALL GOES AWRY?
This is transcendental news which eventually may spark a sea-change in the heretofore traditional investment paradigm. See original announcement.
The Red Baron provides a searching and poignant account of reported Central Banks' Unorthodox Gold Operations GOLD PRICE CONTROL BY CENTRAL BANKS -
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron801.html
GO CHIEFS!!!!!! Green Bay and CHIEFS in the stupor-bowl. F$^% the 49'ers!!!!
btw, did anyone catch my post Thursday regarding currencies vs. US$. Hmmmmmmmmm.....what happened. Well, let me tell you. US$ up 181 ( 1810$US per ) ticks since xmas eve!!!!! Who profited??!? Well, Eric did!!! oh my!! Do your homework and it will pay handsomely. That beautiful CONfederate dollar kicked some foreign ASS!!! It was one of my first trades going long dollar index and I feel FANTASTICULICIOUS!!!! yum, yum!! My only regret is the Mark got kicked because of it and Jan ( options ) Expiry is here.
Donald, I am holding this trade and I think we will make a new high this time. ( maybe ;- ) ) The other countries economies, etc. are, how can I say this?...less appealing to invest in right now?? I think momentum has shifted back to our shores and will stay there for sometime, including our indexes. This market ( dollar index ) is not overbought yet and will continue north for the time being. What else is there?? Gold? I think not....any comments 'The Don'??
What do you say now KIWI??!? Yahoo?? Oh sH!t??!? Damn YANKEES!!??!? Well, I still love you man. Do not bet against the US$ until these other countries get their acts together. Wily investors will do likewise and be laughing ALL the way to the bank. GO USA!!! GO USA!! GO USA!! ( i know this will ruffle some feathers ) ...... ( HUGE grin thing!! ) ......uh huh!
now it is time to go piss-off some New England Fans, eh Ted??!?
away
tradingthebuck!$!
Why are you sooooo bitter??!? Have you not taken advantage of the great bull run since '87?? Do you NOT have ANY money in the markets?? 401k, keogh, IRA's?? Whatever??!? C'mon man!!!! If you don't, how do you expect to retire with any money?? Inflation will tear you a new one if not. Do you save all your money under your mattress?? In your backyard?? w/o 'growing' it somehow?? I do not, and never have spouted how gold has been a shitty investment compared to stox ( although I could make an easy case for it but it would be beating the long dead horse ) . I like gold and I am a speculator AND an investor and I squeeze a buck out of these markets any way I can. If it means to short gold than so be it. I will be long gold when the time is right. You should be buying gold with both hands right now if that is what you believe in and Do not be bitter towards other peoples investment styles. I also think that you should be smart and follow trends until they reverse themselves and not be too contrary ( because it will surely be your demise, if it hasn't already ) . I like you dude. Your intelligence shines through in your posts. You contribute much to this site and I read all your posts with relish ( and mustard ) ....you crack me up. But don't label me DUDE!! You DON'T KNOW ME!!!! I am NOT who you think I am. I am NOT lgb. I am ME!! EB!! A lowly lens grinder ( small biz owner-the meat and spuds of this country ) and commodities trader...............and a little more ;- ) ................ and you are my cyber friend.....ohmy!
away...to the games
thanks Auraciousness ;- ) .....spark me bra!!
.....and gold may rally slightly on the a.m. Monday..........this EBb and Flow will continue for a short while until it forms the TASTY pattern I have talked about. This pattern will give us ALL a sell signal and we should ALL then short gold to make $$$. As Glenn has said, this could be the last one ( maybe ) before that long lost Bull starts a decent charge. The 'powers' STILL want gold to wither and the price will wither. THIS IS NOT THE BOTTOM. Gold CAN go lower. Gold WILL go lower............ ( smile ) ...
lgb - At least 'wash' your shirt......it stinks......... ( holding his nose ) ...............
away..to the Laundry Mat
When Detroit stops designing & building junk - I will buy American. Besides, don't you realize we live in a World Village? Outdated concepts like "nationalism" and "patriotism" - tsk, tsk. Off to the Hillary Clinton "It Takes a Village Idiot" Reeducation and Gold-tooth reclamation camp for you!
The only American car I would consider is the Saturn/GM EV-1 electric. It's a pity Detroit blundered that too by not offering an intermediary hybrid power-plant option. Idiots.
The next car I buy will likely be the Toyota Prius hybrid - that obtains 66/mpg or the Honda Accord LEV. I don't expect $1.04 gallon gasoline to last forever. Pity the 11 - 13/mpg SUV owners when gasoline inevitably goes to $5/gallon. Kyoto "save the world for yuppies" eco-gas taxes ... er ... I mean "voluntary investments".
Addendum: Emerald Heights, you can add Emma Thompson to the short list of women who may throw themselves at my exceedingly large feet. Who needs diving fins?
Post Script: Oh yes ... buy gold; it's the Patriotic Thing.
...........messages being hurled like acid rain in the forest...yuk, yuk...
..........go willy...go gold.
away
How about this slogan: "Don't buy Crap".
you're all right Spuds...
away
Do bullion dealers report gold transactions over $10,000. even if you buy or sell with checks?
Do the Feds monitor individual gold transactions? KITCO?
How much gold can you bring into another country without declaring and do you use the face value?
Would the security or customs agents at airports really care?
Are there any offshore gold accounts?
To do that, in most cases you have to shut down the existing production environment to include the new ( fixed ) components, and restart the operation and in between none of the other programs can execute. There are system ( combination of multiple programs feeding each other ) which have a fixed time window to complete ( e.g., do a closing and reconciliation of last day transaction for a bank ) . If there is a hardware failure there is enough redundancy built into system so that the other machine takes over ( most of these system runs a dual processing and shadowing and the switch is done automatically ) . However, this does not do you any good if your software fails. That is the main reason that you have to test, verify, run the new component in parallel before you put it into production system.
Not the same as fixing Kitcos problem and "designated" programmer with beeper won't cut it. Now, if you missed your time processing window, that means that the other companies ( e.g. financial institution ) depending on you to do your piece can't continue in full production mode either.
It's not that every system will fail, but it is accepted fact that some of them will. You will see the same effect as in your car. One small part gives up and eventually the car does not run. One cylinder gives up and the engine will loose a part of its power. The same applies to highly interdependent economic entities depending on each other that the others will do their job.
No, we won't have a meltdown but we will have a significant difficulties well past the midnight 1999/2000.
-
Cryptic sig #289
"We control the horizontal. We control the vertical."
Off to the hills where gold glimmers in the river sands, calling men to come and risk their lives to find it! Will they "strike it rich" or will they, like so many before them, grow old and withered in a fruitless search for the precious metal?
"Thar's gold in them hills, stranger" says the old miner. And those few words are enough to put a new light in men's eyes.
Gold! It means dark forests and rushing streams and digging in cold water to find the glistening grains.
Gold! It means braving hardship and toil, cold and heat, to try one's luck with Fortune.
Gold! It means adventure and a fight with men and Nature, with maybe disappointment for us in the end, and maybe a pile of gleaming yellow dust.
There has never been a period during recorded history when the magic whisper of gold could not steal away the wits of men and send them to dig and die, perhaps to steal and kill, in order to get a little of the yellow stuff- so useless, yet so powerful...
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/gold.htm
Reading earlier posts:
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/display.htm
is a temporary mirror bug-fix page that I created for Kitco date searching, since the original web page has a "Year 1998 bug"
Also, http://www.kitcomm.com/cgi-bin/discussion/display_short_new.cgi allows you to view all of 1998, but not post.
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-12/21/152l-122197-idx.html
It talks abour South Koreans in the US sending millions back home, some of the money goes to stocks and mutual funds.
was the shoe center? But shoes from there cost $50 to $150. Now Walmart or Payless Shoe have asian shoes ( good quality ) for $8.95 to $25.00. Sometimes there is a special, 2 for the price of one. All this adds up to
no inflation in the import product category. So here we are enjoying the labor and products of millions of nimble asian fingers while the asian businesses undercut our markets, underpay their workers, overproduce,
and don't charge enough for their items to make a proper profit so they can pay their bills, so now the businesses are going broke and the banks that lent the money are going broke and the merry-go-round comes to a halt. It can't be that simple. This is all in the name of "free trade"
I must have missed something . HELP
A conference is just an admission that you want somebody to join you in your troubles.
{Work and Recreation}
An ignorant person is one who doesn't know what you have just found out.
{Altruism and Cynicism}
Diplomacy is the art of saying "nice doggy" until you can find a rock.
{Law and Politics}
Even if you're on the right track, you'll get run over if you just sit there.
{Work and Recreation}
Everybody is ignorant, only on different subjects.
{Wisdom and Ignorance}
I don't make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts.
{Law and Politics}
Why not go out on a limb? That's where the fruit is.
{Success and Failure}
Yesterday I heard callers to talks shows express both sides of the 'Kennedy' thing. One thing is clear, you either love'em or you hate'em. Not much in between! I guess for the Kennedy's, statutory rape and rape are, ... as some would put it, indiscretions? Where is the N.O.W. gang when you need them...
Try your DD on TTN. I'm not finished, but so far this stock is looking better and better.
Comments??
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