I don't suppose anyone will see this post and I certainly can't see the reply but KITCO keeps loading on an Oct 4th 1997 date. HELP!!!!!!!!!!

JMark go here
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/display.htm

Courtesy CJSI

The Public Debt
To the Penny

12/31/1997 $5,502,388,012,375.95

Current
Month Amount

12/30/1997 $5,458,504,731,473.30
12/29/1997 $5,456,865,348,685.66
12/26/1997 $5,452,644,936,513.43
12/24/1997 $5,454,270,389,921.08
12/23/1997 $5,452,602,685,047.99
12/22/1997 $5,449,103,887,432.13
12/19/1997 $5,447,637,626,263.64
12/18/1997 $5,447,173,794,526.24
12/17/1997 $5,444,855,611,810.11
12/16/1997 $5,442,315,818,048.56
12/15/1997 $5,474,663,059,889.36
12/12/1997 $5,473,298,399,569.49
12/11/1997 $5,472,596,997,786.56
12/10/1997 $5,474,482,104,049.82
12/09/1997 $5,472,670,670,026.80
12/08/1997 $5,475,965,824,198.51
12/05/1997 $5,476,603,792,792.89
12/04/1997 $5,476,888,289,505.63
12/03/1997 $5,475,039,674,271.27
12/02/1997 $5,489,345,726,813.93
12/01/1997 $5,489,774,551,535.81

Prior
Months

11/28/1997 $5,462,621,557,837.57
10/31/1997 $5,427,225,185,059.66
09/30/1997 $5,413,146,011,397.34
08/29/1997 $5,404,420,294,885.51
07/31/1997 $5,373,228,560,474.27
06/30/1997 $5,376,151,252,876.02
05/30/1997 $5,344,961,362,266.83
04/30/1997 $5,353,971,314,439.39
03/31/1997 $5,380,889,857,391.59
02/28/1997 $5,349,937,360,942.68
01/31/1997 $5,313,997,018,848.05
12/31/1996 $5,323,171,750,783.19


Prior
Years

09/30/1997 $5,413,146,011,397.34
09/30/1996 $5,224,810,939,135.73
09/29/1995 $4,973,982,900,709.39
09/30/1994 $4,692,749,910,013.32
09/30/1993 $4,411,488,883,139.38
09/30/1992 $4,064,620,655,521.66
09/30/1991 $3,665,303,351,697.03
09/28/1990 $3,233,313,451,777.25
09/29/1989 $2,857,430,960,187.32
09/30/1988 $2,602,337,712,041.16
09/30/1987 $2,350,276,890,953.00

Source: Bureau of the Public Debt

JMark, in these trying times it is important to remember one thing. Don't Panic

"Ta det lugnt!"
( Don't Panic in Swedish )
Slappadu af!!!!!
( in Icelandic )
l htile
( in Finnish )
Ta det rolig
( in Norwegian )
No Asustase!
( in Spanish )
Keine Panik
( in German )
Natarse!
( in farsi )
Raak niet in paniek
( in Dutch )


JTF the number 42 has great significance in a thousand ways look here
http://www.empirenet.com/personal/dljones/#ERS

Lets just all stay perfectly calm, perfectly calm.

( Now, where did I put that lifejacket? )

January 3, 1998
Greenspan warns of danger to US economy of deflation

CHICAGO ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan Saturday warned of dangers if the U.S. economy should enter a period of falling prices, reinforcing beliefs he is not inclined to raise interest rates.

In his most detailed talk yet on the potential for deflation, Greenspan said a debate on the issue was hampered by faulty price measures and lacked clarity."Some observers have begun to question whether deflation is now a possibility," the central bank chief told the annual meeting of the American Economic Association ( AEA ) .

"Even if deflation is not considered a significant near-term risk for the economy, the increasing discussion of it could be clearer in defining the circumstance," he added.

Deflation has not occurred in the United States on a broad scale since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Greenspan declined to say whether there was an imminent risk of a deflationary cycle, but said it could be at least as bad for the economy as inflation.

"Both rapid or variable inflation and deflation can lead to a state of fear and uncertainty that is associated with significant increases in risk premiums and corresponding shortfalls in economic activity," he said.

Economists listening to Greenspan's speech were struck by the attention on deflation after decades in which the Fed has made the fight against rising prices its overriding mission. "Today, he devoted a full 15 minutes to discussing the negative consequences of deflation," said Peter Kretzmer, an economist at NationsBank. "It indicates that Greenspan will take a lot of care before he decides to tighten monetary policy and there is even a possibility of an easing."

Inflation, running at 2.1 percent, is at its lowest level in a generation and Fed research suggests even that figure may be double the actual rate of price increases.

Asia's financial crisis has put a spotlight on deflation as producers in the battered region are expected to unload a glut of cheapened goods, bringing down global prices. Before the Asian troubles mounted, Fed policymakers were leaning in favor of higher interest rates because of worries that the nation's tight labor market would generate wage pressures that could feed inflation.

Allen Sinai, chief economist at Boston-based Primark Decision Inc., said Greenspan's remarks on Saturday clearly showed that deflation was at least on the Fed's radar screen.

"It's a tip-off they will not raise interest rates," he said. "The Fed will be on guard in either direction." Fed policymakers next meet on Feb 3-4 to consider interest rates. The key overnight federal funds rate currently stands at 5.5 percent and has remained unchanged since last March.

Discussing deflation, Greenspan drew a distinction between declines in the prices of assets, such as stocks and houses, and those of goods and services. He said a gradual fall in asset prices had contributed to the recent troubles in Asia but that in most cases this type of deflation could be absorbed by the economy.

"But historically, it has been very rapid asset price declines -- in equity and real estate, especially -- that have held the potential to be a virulently negative force in the economy," he added.

The Fed is charged with seeking an environment of stable prices, in which neither inflation nor deflation is a threat, while maintaining the maximum level of employment.

Greenspan said the "remarkable progress" that had been made in bringing down inflation had brought the issue of price measurement into especially sharp focus. He said there were "uncertainties surrounding the accuracy of our measured price indexes," adding his weight to criticism of the main U.S. inflation gauge, the consumer price index.

Inflation had declined to the point where even an upward bias of a few tenths of a point mattered, he said. "Inflation has become so low that policymakers need to consider at what point effective price stability has been reached," he noted

JMARK go to the url below and do what it says. It is just a temporary new year problem with kitco.

http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/display.htm

and from guys who couldn't even raise a hard.
Rumour sez that JFK may have been assasinated because of his attempt to relieve the US of the paper interest straight jacket.
Remember, the mafia raises prices of larks but the bankers - have you by the cahones.

223: why don't you try Y2K index. Trading on this index started in March last year. In eight months it's up 60%.
As far as other Y2K companies go, look at
http://www.year2000.com/y2kstock.html

If you invest in individual stocks watch out. Many new start up show up but may not fly. It's getting too late in the game for tool companies to make a big jum in stock value ( they already made their money and stock went up - for some of them 10x in a year ) At this point of time, better bet are companies providing services.

January 2, 1998
Crusader challenges corporations to release plans for millennium bug

OTTAWA ( CP ) - A self-anointed millennium crusader has given Canada's 100 biggest employers 24 days to provide him with their spending plans to correct the year 2000 computer bug or face public pillory. "Essentially, it's time to get all corporations to fess up," Joe Boivin of the newly minted Global Millennium Foundation said Friday at a news conference on Parliament Hill.

Boivin, 54, recently left the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, where he headed the bank's highly advanced year 2000 program. He said Canada's banking industry is far out in front of the rest of the private and public sector in addressing and correcting the bug, which experts predict could cause computer chaos after midnight Dec. 31, 1999.
http://www.canoe.ca/NationalTicker/CANOE-wire.Millennium-Bug.html

how can i get a prior days posts?

Haggis_A: You don't seem to understand at all. For a very long time, being a Yank has meant, to be part of the best of all possible worlds.

The world has said and continues to say that it loves our little green pieces of paper. The producers of the world, work their fingers to the bone in order that we Yanks may enjoy the world's highest standard of living. Or, at all events, the gaudiest way of life.

For the producers, it is ( seems to be ) their highest calling to send us the fruit of their labor and in return we compensate them with little green pieces of paper, for which they are, or seem to be, eternally grateful. ...... If not eternally grateful, their gratitude will, hopefully, last long enough for the US to come up with a different scheme. ..... Or long enough for us to leave town. Unnoticed.

In return, the producers of the world return the paper to our shores in exchange for our debt. For which, they receive interest. Again, they consider it all a fair exchange and we are free to continue living a sweet life, completely beyond our means. It's all a part of the new math. The modern - gasp - paradigm. The new world order. ...... and it will likely continue until a large block of producers begin to question the true value of the paper. Especially since we able to manufacture so much of it. After all, it requires a large quantity of the stuff to continue living the good life.

As all good things must, this one will end soon as well. Then we will begin measuring the value of the dollar by a new standard. Its half life.

For many in the US the word spelled "yank" is pronounced "damnedyankee"

Are French Warming Up For Another Explosion?
By Anne Swardson Washington Post Service
PARIS - Paris is not burning, but the rest of France looks hotter
these days. A series of violent incidents around the country in the last few weeks, including the burning of 62 cars by about 300 youths in the
city of Strasbourg overnight on New Year's Eve and New Year's
Day, has given rise to fears France may be on the verge of another
outburst of strikes and riots.

EU Phone Market Open? German Users Cry Foul
By John Schmid International Herald Tribune
FRANKFURT - Europe's new era of open competition in
telecommunications was in its second day Friday when Germany's
powerful former state monopoly, Deutsche Telekom, popped a
surprise on its customers and rivals: a steep new fee on subscribers
who decide to take their business elsewhere.

http://www.iht.com/IHT/TODAY/index.html

Earl: The half-life of a dollar! Wonderful final metaphor to a grand speach.


Course, being Nuclear free in NZ hasn't sheltered us from this radio-active fallout..

Haggis, 223 beat me to it. BTW what do you keep in your sporan? I've heard it's a good place for hot spuds on a cold night?

SDRer: Aye. From news accounts there is also a sizable and growing contingent of unemployed who are becoming restive. Unhappy? Belligerent?

Anyway, the French unemployment rate appears to be stubbornly set at about 12.5% and refuses to go down. Thus the reason for a rising level of general dis-ease and unhappiness.

Perhaps the French should adopt the US solution. Jail as many of the unemployed as possible and then they don't have to be counted on either the welfare or unemployment rolls. ...... We have so many neat solutions but the rest of the world refuses to follow our lead. Except in paper production.

- will Cronje spike the ball again?
- the pitch is deteriorating and Warnie smells S.A. blood
- go the green and GOLD!

RIGHT! Japan, with current account balances that are GREATER ( $189bn ) than US current account deficit ( $187bn ) engenders no confidence in
money-runners hearts,

'The yen is really suffering a confidence problem,'' said Stephen
Flanagan, chief currency trader at Erste Bank in New York.
''People have lingering doubts about the Far East and they're
looking at the world and saying, 'If I've got to be anywhere, I prefer
to be in the dollar.'''
http://www.iht.com/IHT/TODAY/SAT/FIN/bux.html

whilst belief in US invincibility is total. Perhaps it is possible
to fool all of the people all of the time.

Earl -- Damn, but you're good! Measure the dollar by its half life! HAR! Love it. But how can it eventually be otherwise? When a whole nation exports its posterity/net wealth to others and also undermines its own economic infrastructure at the same time by exporting its industry, what else is left except to salute a new flag?

Here's a question for you and others: If all the countries are in debt, who are they in debt too?

Also: If governments/tax payers are to be the lenders of last resort, why have intermediaries?

Aurator: Nuclear free zone??? .... That is hardly a distinction. So is the city of Eugene OR and a half dozen blocks in the more liberal portion of Portland. They're making a statement, don't you know. When they aren't making statements such as that, they hold candlelight vigils and hold hands and concentrate, each in his own way, on creating a larger nuclear free zone than all of NZ.

Actually, I would dearly love to immigrate to NZ. But they won't have me. Something about moral turpitude. Whatever the hell that means. They say the wife's OK though. She's never entertained a moral turpitude in her entire life. ...... Except me of course.

"...in January to push Mr. Clinton on another subject that he preferred to duck as 1997 ended, Iran. Jesse Helms and other conservative Republicans will be demanding that the administration impose economic sanctions on France, Russia and Malaysia for investing in Iran, even as Mr. Clinton is looking for international help on Iraq, Asia's currency collapses and other U.S. interests."

http://www.iht.com/IHT/TODAY/SAT/ED/edhoag.html

SDR_A -- Fool ALL the people? I don't think so! Maybe ALMOST all the people. But probably close enough for their sovereignty confiscating game.

Wonder what an IMF/BIS rescue package to save the US dollar would require? duh

SDRer: Yer right as rain. And if everything goes according to plan, we will be able to buy it all and own it for pennies on the dollar.

If I understand the numbers correctly, the bank exposure is 15 US, 40 Europe, 45 Japan. Our only competition will be the Europeans. After we message other G7 "partners" to refresh the IMF and in turn, our banks; we will insure that we get ours first, then the rest of the world will be singing "Yankee doodle dandy". ...... By God an Aye. Even Haggis will receive his niggardly paycheck drawn on a US bank. Paid in $A.

Life is good when you are a Yank with a plan.

Stated so clearly! I have to tip my hat to you.

You could also mention the producing countries are falling all over themselves in their haste to exchange their thousands of years of culture and traditions for the great American way. Why?

It is a headlong race to the bottom.

Certainly much easier and quicker gratification than you get persuing loftier human ambitions.

Earl -- France, and the rest of Europe will get around to following the US lead in jailing its unemployed/underemployed dissidents. As Cali'fornicate' seems to lead the rest of the nation along the way, so too will the whole western continent lead the European countries, but they too will of 'necessity' deem it necessary to do more jailing. It IS a race to the bottom you know!

Eldo: As I've said before, we are selling forward our productive capacity. Our labor has calls on it reaching into the 23 or 24 century. Maybe farther but hell, who's keeping score anymore.

We are conditioned to believe that it will never have to be paid back. And I think that is correct. It never will be. We will do something Kennedy like. Something dishonorable. We will either cheat our lenders with inflation or simply tell them to stuff it. ..... and those in nuclear free zones will have no rational recourse. Except to say: Oh!

Earl -- Labor? What's that? Oh, you mean all those hamburger flippers software programmers, litigants and lawyers! Did I leave anybody of essence out? As for having debt into the 23rd/24th century, I'm sure a 'solution' will arise before then. Even wall paper won't stand up that long!

Midas: Emulation of the US lifestyle is probably confined to those benighted regions of the world where culture and tradition have proven to be a poor substitute for a full belly and a nice car.

As an aside; in Vietnam for example, the people who own automobiles but no garage ( there are few garages ) will park them in the front room of the house because the street would be inimical to continuing ownership. The car is more important to them than the creature comforts of their home. But then they have never experienced the assumed pleasures of an automobile. Nor airconditioning. Or a host other things that we take for granted.

Earl: The distinction was that NZ was part of a tri-lateral treaty called ANZUS, the "A" bit is Australia, with the US bringing up the tail. And, rightly or wrongly, but exercising her sovereign independance, NZ became a Nuclear free zone.

Our allies, - read US leveraging both Aus and UK, then started making life difficult for the sons and daughters of your brothers at arms for a generation or two.
Erecting trade barriers, visa restrictions, you know, treating us with hostility. GOodness me, I bet no American knows that NZ fought beside US in two of your grubby little wars that left old blighty ( Britland ) out of it. Yes, NZ fought in both Korea and Vietnam, probably because we love independence, freedom and like to give authority the fingers. ( you've probably seen me do something like this ) and because we believed that US & NZ were allies, mates.

We all shared this fate, just that "being mates" has a special connotation here and in AUS. You don't rat on your mates, and you stand by them in thick and thin. That's what AUS & NZ learned in WWI, and have never forgotten. Stand by your mates. I just realised Earl, the capacity for deception the US govt has used against its own peopl and its allies. Tolerant1 should perhaps aim his sights within the US?

No Earl, my reference really implied that this declaration of Nuclear Free, was ultimately futile, as it should've also carried with it a declaration to rid ourselves of american dollars and american TV too. But it is too late now, and we look to measure the half-life of the american dollar. Is it weeks, months or years? Whatever it is, the answer is a finite number and, still and again, we share a common fate.

It may be 42.

Try Emmigrating again, sounds like your moral turpitude is something we could do with down here!

Eldo: It must be someone's labor. Likely not mine. Too old. Have no marketable skills. And if that's not enough, congenital laziness.

Seriously, all the more reason to get out of debt and stay out of debt. If things decay, lower the lifestyle, barter, take the kids back home if necessary ( charge 'em rent and make 'em tend the garden ) . Lay in some extra 223 for possible unpleasant moments. In short, prepare to revisit a time in America that few have experienced. Sad but whatcha gonna do about it?

Yes, they all want to go to a supermarket and see brimming shelves and brightly coloured packaging. Americans have made this an art, a special type of psycho-art I guess. Art whose purpose is to attract takers, as in fishing lures.

But these cultures have had very low divorce rates, little crime in the streets, genuine respect throughout society... Korea has been like this until very recently. They have thrown it all away.

Eldorado: The solution from within America is any underhanded scheme, the lower the better. Just keep the game going.

From without, it would be for those countries' leaders to show some backbone. 'People, our new course of action will mean a lower but better standard of living...'

I wonder what Mr Soros is up to........?

"According to USA Gold ( http://www.usagold.com/ ) on the 5th of November 1997, George Soros was rumored to be buying gold and gold shares..... It could be that Soros is playing the short term variations in gold, buying and selling, or it could be that he perceives a rise after over-reaction to the Swiss gold sales report, or ( which would be the most serious case ) he might be buying for medium to long term holding on anticipation of substantial longer term price rises. USA Gold also commented that London Gold lease rates just increased to a record 3.8% which indicates high demand for physical gold. A flight to gold as a quality investment would threaten stock markets and paper money, therefore its price must be kept down".

"It has been reported that George Soros is going to meet South Korean
President-elect Kim Dae Jung on Sunday January 4th to discuss how to
restore investors' confidence in the South Korean markets".

January 2nd, 1998.
"Checking The Public Debt to the Penny, you can see that the US national
debt appears to have leaped by $44 billion in one day! No doubt this has
something to do with the Asian financial meltdown ( South Korea bailouts ) "

Aurator- There is at least one American who is very aware of the contributions of the boys down under. Even the last two times;and
you sent a plane to the Gulf. I stop and read the names of every WWI monument I pass by down there and there are far to many names on them.

You are generalizing from individuals to a US government. Your mates are still your mates.

G'day,

I did not realize that you Yanks were sensitive, "New Age" types!!

I was referring to the Debt Figures! They are impressive!!!!!!!!!

Aye, Haggis

Haggis -- Actually, I would view a government buying gold as a step toward restoration of the public/investor confidence in that governments' commitment towards its currency. 'Course, it might also mean less confidence in the 'foreign' currency or paper it sold to acquire it!

G'day,

You should know that under a sporan is a kilt. There is nothing worn under the kilt, it is all in perfect working order!

Aye, Haggis

Aurator: I was really unaware of the petty retaliation and procedural sanctions visited upon NZ as a result of their sovereign decision. Merely a reflection of the swinish state of governance in the latter stages of the 20th century US. Our pols do it to each other as well. On a regular basis. ...... Hell! There is so much that could be extemporated on the subject ...... but it is so dismal to consider, so obvious to the most casual observer and of no possible use to anyone; that it is best left alone.

I share your disregard for duly constituted authority. Especially as displayed this AM in response to our wild eyed Bretheren of the fevered brow and total immersion. They are basically good people, though misguided, and only become a nuisance when they are seized by the evangelical spirit. As long as their arguments are confined to jabbing each other in the butt over who has found the true path and light, they are of little bother. ..... Too bad the same cannot be said for our public institutions.

May look into NZ seriously. The US may get messy if things fall apart. At the same time there are children and their families to consider as well. Life ain't all economics. ........ This should have been an email, I think. But the hour is late and .......

MARKET UPDATE ( 12/31/97 ) AM----- Precious metals markets were active in
overnight trading as investors took profits in silver and positioned
themselves in platinum. Although most traders don't return from vacation
until January 5th, that did not deter some brokerage firms from moving
large amounts of money around in very thinly traded markets. Silver
dropped $0.20/oz. in overnight ACCESS trading after large funds began
selling. As New York opened today, it dropped as low as $5.80/oz. before
rebounding. COMEX warehouse stocks continue to dwindle, reaching a
12-year low yesterday. Last week, silver hit an eight-year high of
$6.39/oz. Gold sold off in sympathy with silver by dropping $3.00/oz. on
light volume. Platinum and palladium rose yesterday and are rising gain
today on fears of supply disruption from Russia.

In other market-related news, the new Thai prime minister warned that
the worst is yet to come in 1998 for Thailand's economy. He predicted
further economic contraction and unemployment in the once robust nation.
GDP is expected to grow only 0.3% in 1997 and to shrink 0.7% in
1998---all of this to the chagrin of the IMF which lent $17.2 billion
recently in the hope of reinvigorating that economy. Compare these
figures to an 8.4% per year growth in GDP from 1992 to 1996! Things are
not much better in Korea, the other Asian Tiger that has been mauled by
market forces. Reuters reported today that the outlook for Korea's
economy in 1998 is gloomy, at best---despite a $57 billion bailout last
week. Major South Korean corporations are expected to collapse like
dominoes due to debt problems, which will drag down a number of smaller
companies and will push banks to the brink of involvency. Stephen
Marvin, head of research at Ssangyong Securities, said "the resulting
implosion of the banking system will force the government to seek
international assistance again." Interesting thought: No one predicted
at the start of 1997 that Korea would fall apart. The only analyst who
warned investors to stay completely away from all of Asia was Barton
Biggs of Morgan Stanley, and this warning came about the middle of 1997.

Finally, while on the subject of Asia, many analysts are waiting for the
other shoe to drop---i.e. Japan. The Nikkei 225 fell below 15,000 last
week which has put tremendous strain on the Japanese banking system
since most banks own shares of Japanese corporations. Now the
asset/liability ratios are out of balance due to lower stock prices, and
that spells trouble. Alan Greenspan and Robert Rubin know it and soon
the world will, too. Prime Minister Hashimoto announced a U-turn in
fiscal policy in December to counter the threatening recession in
Japan's economy. He announced measures that included billions of dollars
in income tax cuts which are hoped to stimulate domestic demand again.
Who would have predicted at the beginning of 1997 that the "locomotive"
of Asia---Japan---would be unable to continue its role as global lender?
Japan's banking system has more than $1 trillion of nonperforming
loans--and that was before the recent fallout in Southeast Asian
economies. One of these days, these loans will need to be written off.
In the meanwhile, it is the IMF which has become the lender of last
resort. With close to $160 billion lent to Asian economies so far, many
analysts are saying that four times that amount or $650 billion will be
needed to restore the lost market capitalization values. The stage has
been set for the biggest bailout in the world's financial history. Gold
is dirt cheap when viewed in this light. Once investors worldwide wake
up to this fact, we will see the biggest gold rush in history. That's
all for today.

Sourced via aurator - http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/finan.htm

"Rumours are about that Japan will do some US Treasury bond selling over
Christmas. Japan sold a net $3.63 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds and
notes from July to September, Malaysia sold $1.9 billion net in the 2nd
quarter, and Taiwan sold $3.27 billion net in the 3rd quarter. This was
offset by $29.7 billion net purchases by Great Britain in the 3rd
quarter ( up $11.3 billion over the 2nd quarter ) and German net purchases
of $13.2 billion. Flight to quality movements from Asian investments, or
helpful assistance from friends of the US?"

I've been feeling down, I can't even describe
How miserable I feel being alive
I'm short 100, 000 ounces of silver and twice as much gold
I must have sh__ for brains, I must be an absolute dolt
So I went to my favorite whorehouse to get some cheer
I find it lifts the spirits more than beer
I found myself a hooker beyond compare
She had a kick-ass figure and golden hair
We bonked and bonked until we were both sore
I've never met such an insatiable whore
I pulled out my wallet and offered her my whole wad
If she'd let me spend the night playing with her hot bod
Scowling at my paper money, she'd have none of that
"Give me gold or silver" if you want another crack at bat
So I called up my friends at the ol' CB's
"Guys, I need some gold real fast, if you please
I've got me a whore who's not into American bucks
She wants precious metals or I don't get no F__ks"
They hooted and hollered at my sad position
A horny guy loaded with dollars not getting coition
"Listen, Shorty, we've already lent most of our ore
So much we just can't lend anymore
You see, there's a shortage developing across the land
So you better reacquaint yourself with your left hand!!!"

I love you all, I know I'm an outsider , but please get past this grin
thing. Smile, shit, or get off the pot. GO GOLD. Bottom at hand. Nite to all.

I once knew a Scotsman named ol' Haggis
Who was real negative about Pegasus
"Ya see, mates, even after liquidation
They'll still be in a helluva situation
The Australian goverment won't bail 'em out"
( 'Coz Australia is bankrupt, without a doubt )
Ya best panic like a bunch of nervous grannies
And sell off your shares to cover your fannies
Sell 'em to speculators with balls of steel
Who know when to bottom fish, how to wheel and deal
Your shares you think are worthless have value to some
So hang on for now or else later feel dumb
And in your darkest moments of anxiety and grief
Never give up hope or lose your belief
Remember that Pegasus is a winged horse that flew
From the body of Medusa after she was all through!!!

I just received a mailing about the "GOLD PANIC: Locked in for 1998!"
Although I am usually leary about bulk mailings, get rich in stocks,
and stock market advice newsletters... this one had some info that might
be interesting to some of you. A gentleman by the name of Jim Blanchard
performed an analysis between the market price of gold and the short-term
( one month ) gold lease rate.

When both charts are superimposed on top of each other, and interesting
"trend" can be seen. And although any group of numbers can be skewed or
stretched to produce a desired result... I would love to hear any of your
thoughts on his findings.

"Since 1992, the short-term ( one month ) gold lease rate has risen above
2% three times, with each occurence leading to a significant gain in the
gold price. The gold lease rate has just soared above 2% for a fourth,
which has to be considered an extremely bullish indicator."

On this graph analysis, there are ( 4 ) definite spikes of the gold
lease rate over the 2% mark... leading to a spike in the market price
of gold in 3-to-6 months. I did not add the graph to this posting,
although I would gladly scan in and post it ( or e-mail it to you ) if
anyone is interested. Feel free to write me E-mail, or post your
thoughts back here. To success and Happy Hunting in 1998!

--Tom Pirie

G'Day Mate,

Now, that is FARFETCHED..................... If you ever go to Mt Todd in the Northern Territory, try swimming in the river, you might get a surprise!

Change the way you look at things. Come to think of it, don't look at things at all - try denial. CHANGE THE PERCEPTION.

Pegasus DO HAVE A PROBLEM - ask them!

Aye, Haggis

Was that a response to my posting?!?!?!?

I see Farfel below... ; )

Tom
Are you able to post the article? Jim Blanchard has been in the gold game for a couple of decades,he has been a gold bug and Author of The GOLD NEWSLETTER, and a rampant bull ever since I first read a newsletter some years ago now. His hit rate has been less than spectaculuar, but then no Gold guru is looking good at the moment.
That should tell you a heap too.
You've arrived on our little group during some ahhem, perplexing computer problems, otherwise I'd suggest you have a we look back at some of our discussions on just that. Perhaps someone will come along in the day shift and get a link or too for you.

Earl: I know that few of you know how your govt has treated NZ. The severing of military and civilian intelligence links brought about catastrophes of another kind.

Producer: Earl understands I talk Govt to Govt. I am as shocked as you are by what your Govt does to its citizens. When I talk of such things, I am talking what your twisted govt has wrought. Those steinie futures do attract a fine interest, payable in "kind" don't be too long a'coming.

aurator@bed

..Also writes newsletter [I subscribe ] Statigic Investment,and a web site w/same name.

Statigic.. Should be Stratigic..sorry.

Aurator,

Actually, the info I received was a "bonus article" to entice me to

sign up for the "Gold Newsletter." Is this a good newsletter to

subscribe to?... Give or take Mr. blanchards hit ratio as an analyst! = )

Also, I will work on posting the article here... or atleast scan the

graph so it can be posted here. ( How does that work by the way?... do I

just send in a .gif -or- .jpg and "refer" to it in my posting for

others to view elsewhere? )

Thanks for the response... I'll come back tomorrow. ( 2:30AM in Seattle ! ! ! )

--Tom Pirie

ReutersNews: FIRST DEFAULT ON GOLD PAYMENTS

CONSOLIDATED-NEVADA DEFAULTS ON GOLD LOAN TO ING FINANCIAL GROUP

THIS IS MONUMENTAL NEWS! It is testament to the well-grounded suspicions of many experts that there will be many GOLD LOAN DEFAULTS, forcing Central Banks and large commercial banks to EAT the Gold Loans extended.

Please recall ING is the large international group which picked up Barings Bank's marbles when it failed a couple or so years ago due to non-traditional banking operations and a rogue trader!!! This was a 200 year-old English bank.

Is this the first crack in the dike which WILL cause the deluge run on GOLD, as frantic international bankers and Central Bankers begin to cover their very exposed financial BUTTS? Gold Loans/Leasing is considered by many professional observers as NOT CONSERVATIVE NOR TRADITIONAL BANKING OPERATIONS.

This begs - NO DEMANDS - the crucial questions: SHOULD CENTRAL BANKS BE ALLOWED TO SPECULATE WITH THE PUBLIC'S MONEY IN THE COMMODITIES MARKETS? INDEED, ARE CENTRAL BANKERS EVEN QUALIFIED FOR THESE HIGHLY RISKY COMMODITY MARKET OPERATIONS? ARE THESE TRADITIONAL CONSERVATIVE BANKING OPERATIONS? WHY ARE THESE NON-BANKING TRANSACTIONS NOT REVIEWED BY CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE TO ENSURE AS TO THEIR PRUDENCE AND SAFETY? WHAT COULD BE THE DIRE CONSEQUENCES IF THE FED MISCALCULATES IN ITS GOLD SPECULATIONS? COULD THIS RESULT IN ANOTHER S&L DEBACLE, COSTING THE PUBLIC HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF TAXPAYERS' HARD EARNED MONEY? WHO IS
TO BE HELD IN ACCOUNT IF ALL GOES AWRY?

This is transcendental news which eventually may spark a sea-change in the heretofore traditional investment paradigm. See original announcement.

The Red Baron provides a searching and poignant account of reported Central Banks Unorthodox Gold Operations GOLD PRICE CONTROL BY CENTRAL BANKS -
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron801.html

http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/display.htm ( UK host ) and

http://www.he.net/~netking/display.htm ( USA host )

are temporary mirror bug-fix pages that I created for Kitco date searching, since the original web page has a "Year 1998 bug"- the page is stuck at "Oct 97", you can't read earlier posts, and there's no '98!

Also, http://www.kitcomm.com/cgi-bin/discussion/display_short_new.cgi allows you to view all of 1998, but not post.

http://www.hfxnews.southam.ca/story3.html

http://www.zolatimes.com/v1.8/Orlin2000.html

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/980103/news/stories/greenspan_2.html

Thanks for the y8B fix.

Maybe gold has been speaking the truth, MR. Greenspan, deflation is imminent, prices will fall. Watching the real estate market here in the Western US, has anyone thought out the ramifications of this new tax law recently passed and how it will become a deflationary impetus. Many people who have bought houses above their means will try to sell out and "buy down", thus causing a huge glut of upper end homes, supply and demand, prices fall...foreclosures rise, banking stocks get hammered, new home construction slows, retail sales of new home products slacks off, corporate profits down, stocks fall, unemployment rises...the possibility of this chain reaction meltdown is more possible then most will acknowledge..

Haggis ( and yer " glad I'm not a Yank" comment ) :No offense ( sure ) intended but if the 'mother country' is ANYTHING like Cape Breton-Nova Scotia,I'm damn glad I'm not a Scotsman!!!....What a bunch of BSers~~~~~

I've subscribed to quite a few precious metals newsletters over the last 5 years, and my judgement is that GNL is the best of the lot with respect to content and research. You can subscribe and get GNL ( as well as other newsletters ) at

http://www.stockscape.com

Silverbaron from Silverdolr@webtv.net

Southeast Asian Cuurencies Begin 1998 SHARPLY DOWN!

Maylasian, Indonesian & Thailand Currencies Plummeting... AGAIN

John Kutyn is undoubtedly one of last years most brilliant and perceptive analysts on the Domino Effect sweeping through Southeast Asia. His insightful take on currency chaos and stock market turmoil paint a grim picture of what the new year holds for the countries of that area... indeed what the ramifications are for the rest of the world. Following are a few of his random thoughts on the region. Additionally, he shares his opinion of the precarious condition of the Japanese Banking System, and what we might brace ourselves for in 1998.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/kutyn010198.html

1998 and who will lead, I think we are all going to be in deep trouble unless great minds work together. We all need to reach down within ourselves and bring about the best that we can be.

We must strive for a better world for the children. Anything less shall be unstatisfactory.

Now where's that bottle of Cuervo.

Oh yes, I have decided to make peace with Camdesuss. What would I be that has no forgiveness. That which I do not understand should not be held in contempt. It is a big world and I have a small mind. I have truly seen the enemy and it is me.

Before I castigate him further I must look deeper into my soul and try and comprehend why he does what he does. Surely he believes he is doing the right thing.

I must search my soul, infinity is a long journey. Thick soles are needed for this journey within me. Perhaps Ganesh will be a willing companion. One can only hope.

Leland: Thanks for the link to the Grabbe articles. I read them and posted the following reply.

fundaMETAList

=============

Mr. Grabbe:

I'm a financial applications programmer/analyst with 25 years of experience in the trenches. I've spent the last 20 years as an independent consultant moving from company to company so I have an expert view on this problem.

I'm sorry to say that your Year 2000 article does a great disservice to your readers. You need to get better educated on this subject and then rewrite your article.

Here is a specific item in your article that bothers me. At the beginning you clearly point out that you personally feel that half of the problem is hype and half is real. Much later in your article you point out that one thing that makes you sit up and take notice is what the BIS has to say and what the BIS has to say is quite alarming. You should have made that point much earlier in your article. Many people will stop reading your article before they get to that important point. Those that do not finish reading it will come away with the feeling that, "Well, Grabbe does not sound that concerned about this situation and I trust his outlook on things."

Until early in 1997 I too had the outlook that Year 2000 was a problem but a solvable one. Since then my day to day experience has shown that too many companies are ignoring this problem. As others have already pointed out in their replies to your article there simply is not enough time and resources ( programmers ) to get this job done. Therefore, we will have problems and I think they will be huge. People just do not understand how much their daily lives are affected by computers.

One important point that I think may not have been made in the replies yet is the exchange of data between computer systems. I've spent a significant portion of my career reformatting data from one system so it can be used in another. Come 2000 we will have both compliant and non-compliant systems trying to exchange data. The data from non-compliant computers could very well bring the compliant systems to their knees. My point is even companies that were intelligent enough to address the Year 2000 problems in their own systems are going to have problems because of external data that they import.

You also need to get up to speed on the subject of embedded systems. It's a whole 'nother beast. Please, for the sake of your readers, get better educated on this subject and then rewrite your article. I even suggest that you leave the old article there for people to see how one's outlook changes after becoming better educated on the subject. I suggest that you read Ed and Jennifer Yourdons book, Time Bomb 2000, once it becomes available and, as I'm sure that you are aware, there are many places on the net where you can find a mountain of data on this subject.

fundaMETAList

If I have not returned your mail I apologize. There are only so many hours in the day. I do promise I will get to it. I greatly appreciate the many kind words and thoughts sent my way.

Could anyone guide me to information on the effect of Deflation / Ressision / Depression on the price of gold.

I would think any uncertainty in the dollar via inflation or deflation would drive CBs and individuals into gold. Are we not witnessing rampant deflation in Korea and gold increasing in price in the Won. Deflation will weaken the dollar and strengthen the price of gold. Gold will rise in an environment of uncertainty and chaos and 1998 has the making of one turbulent year.

For whatever it's worth to you ( probably not much,since each of us must find his own way ) I will share a small insight which has helped me.

There are undoubtably truly evil people, graceless ( in the religious sense ) , who delight in causing others' pain and who's satisfaction comes from producing havoc. I think this is quite rare.

More often people produce evil out of good intentions. Most often the intention which produces great suffering in us and others is a caring one gone wrong. It is ubiquitous to try to do good things for others. We manufacture scenarios which would make ever thing all well with the world. The trouble comes when others, or ourselves, don't go along with the script. Their ( or our own ) intractable ness is countered with demands and often eventually with force. As Pascal said, we are part mind and part automaton. The part of us made up of habit and custom is refractory to reason. So we PUSH others and ourselves with demands and threats and attacks and name calling. For some of us this becomes an habitual method of caring about ourselves and others. Anger becomes our only tool for change and as with any worker with only the hammer of anger, all problems are seen as nails.

It has helped me to see this and to see people like Camdessus as basically good people who just don't know how to go about caring for others. Don't get me wrong. I'm not advocating allowing others to interfere in our lives just because they have good motives. Quite the contrary, our best defence, however, against others who try to help us by "minding our business" is not anger. ( Although it might come to force. ) Our best defence is to learn about them, as SDRer is trying to do, and to prepare for what they are likely to do.

I hope these few words will be read by you in the gentle way they were conceived.

Has anybody looked in the back of Barron's this weekend? It seems that four Vice Presidents at Battle Mountain have decided to sell some shares. Could this be the bottom, or a bottomless pit?

You have a great and infinite mind...so infinite, sometimes soaring to a scale that I have no choice but to leave off and sustain a safer circumstance. I must remain conscious and, hesitantly, acquiesce to better judgement.
I am immensely arrogant in music creation, and I will not overcome this, much akin to others at this venue in their various, vaulted advocations.

Each has a bag...er, baggage....and speaking of which, How 'bout farfel? Reason and rhyme...I pray that his is merely penta-satire...for if he's got this great of a short complex ( pm ) in the market, to which he scribes, he's deader than a dead poet.

The Next Balance of Power: A Geoplotical detective story
Economist Jan 3rd - 9th 1998

Asks 4 Q, and gives numerical ratings:

LONG RANGE MILITARY POWER: China 4; Isalm, 0; Russia, 3; Japan, 1; US, 5; US+Europe 5; Europe, 2

EFFICIENT FOREIGN-POLICY MACHINERY: China, 3; Isalm, 0; Russia, 1; Japan 1; US, 4; US+Europe, 4; Europe, 1

PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS FOREIGN POLICY: China, 3; Isalm, 2; Russia, 1; Japan,1;
US,2; US+Europe, 2; Europe, 2

MATERIAL INTERESTS ABROAD: China, 3; Islam, 2; Russia, 3; Japan, 4; US, 3; US+Europe, 4; Europe, 4

Tally: China, 13; Isalm, 4: Russia, 8; Japan, 9; US, 14; US+Europe, 15; Europe, 9

That leaves, in the end, five or six real contenders. Of these, the place that scores highest in the coming-superpower test is, beyond much doubt,
China.

Inasmuch as the Economist saw fit to add US+Europe, lets be even-handed and add China and Japan:

LONG RANGE MILITARY POWER: CHINA+JAPAN, 5; US+Europe 5
EFFICIENT FOREIGN-POLICY MACHINERY: CHINA+JAPAN, 4; US+Europe, 4
PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS FOREIGN POLICY: China+Japan, 4; US+Europe, 2;
MATERIAL INTERESTS ABROAD: China+Japan, 7; US+Europe, 4

Then, one might ponder the swing entities, Isalm and Russia, and
ask which of the two power blocks would be more successful in attracting
these iron filings....

dont think Isalm will be too attracted to the West...
oh my...

Carl@11:01: The REAL World Power Source: there is little in the world more rewarding than a good man's humanity. A wonderful Sunday morning post, my friend.

I am more than I was due to your thoughts. A priviledge. Thank you.

Your comments to Mr. Grabbe reminded me of a story, many years ago, in
Readers' Digest. A wife was describing how upset her husband had been
during a computer conversion project on his job. It seemed the husband
often mumbled "EDPM" around home during his off hours. She finally asked
him, what did EDPM mean. His reply, "Every damn problem multiplied!"

The Next Balance of Power: A Geoplotical detective story
Economist Jan 3rd - 9th 1998

Asks 4 Q, and gives numerical ratings:

LONG RANGE MILITARY POWER: China 4; Isalm, 0; Russia, 3; Japan, 1; US, 5; US+Europe 5; Europe, 2

EFFICIENT FOREIGN-POLICY MACHINERY: China, 3; Isalm, 0; Russia, 1; Japan 1; US, 4; US+Europe, 4; Europe, 1

PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS FOREIGN POLICY: China, 3; Isalm, 2; Russia, 1; Japan,1;
US,2; US+Europe, 2; Europe, 2

MATERIAL INTERESTS ABROAD: China, 3; Islam, 2; Russia, 3; Japan, 4; US, 3; US+Europe, 4; Europe, 4

Tally: China, 13; Isalm, 4: Russia, 8; Japan, 9; US, 14; US+Europe, 15; Europe, 9

That leaves, in the end, five or six real contenders. Of these, the place that scores highest in the coming-superpower test is, beyond much doubt,
China.

Inasmuch as they saw fit to add US+Europe, lets be fair and add China and Japan:

LONG RANGE MILITARY POWER: CHINA+JAPAN, 5; US+Europe 5
EFFICIENT FOREIGN-POLICY MACHINERY: CHINA+JAPAN, 4; US+Europe, 4
PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS FOREIGN POLICY: China+Japan, 4; US+Europe, 2;
MATERIAL INTERESTS ABROAD: China+Japan, 7; US+Europe, 4

Then, one might ponder the swing entities, Isalm and Russia, and
ask which of the two power blocks would be more successful in attracting
these iron filings....

dont think Isalm will be too attracted to the West...
oh my...

Carl@The World.Real.Power.Source, there are few encounters more
rewarding than experiencing a good man' humanity. Wonderful Sunday
morning post.

Thank you for your post...often, I think it's easier to "figure out" someone else than it is to conceive yourself. We have nothing better, than to do our best to perceive others properly and, to avoid deceiving ourselves.

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Falling prices may not be such a good thing after all, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
Greenspan said Saturday.

``There are valid reasons for wishing to avoid ongoing declines in the general price level,'' he said in Chicago.

His remarks, to the annual meeting of the American Economic Association and American Finance Association,
were his most extensive yet on the topic of deflation. A text of his speech was released in Washington.

He didn't say directly whether he thought deflation was likely. But, as inflation has diminished to levels unseen
since the mid-1960s, private economists have begun to speculate about the prospect for a spell of general price
declines.

Prices paid to producers such as factories and food processing plants declined at a 1.2 percent annual rate during
the first 11 months of 1997. Consumer price inflation, including services, rose at a scant 1.8 percent rate during
the same period.

Most analysts expect inflation to hold at that level or even increase slightly this year. But a few warn of deflation,
especially if a flood of cheap imports from economically ailing Asian nations forces domestic manufacturers to cut
their prices to stay competitive.

Consumer prices have edged lower only twice since World War II -- in 1949 and 1955 -- and they haven't fallen
consistently since the 1930s.

Greenspan said deflation isn't destructive if it takes place at a time of a rapid growth in productivity.

``For example, in the high-tech sector of our economy today, we observe falling prices together with rapid
investment and high profitability,'' he said.

While seeking to offer some reassurance on deflation, Greenspan made clear the central bank would seek to
avoid it just as it seeks to avoid inflation. The Fed's goal has been price stability -- overall price changes so small
they don't affect the decisions of businesses and consumers.

``Even a moderate rate of inflation can hamper economic performance,'' he said. ``Moderate rates of deflation
would most probably lead to similar problems. Deflation, like inflation, would distort resource allocation and
interfere with the economy's ability to reach its full potential.''

And, he said, deflation poses several problems that inflation doesn't. Because interest rates can't go below zero,
deflation raises the possibility of high real -- that is price-adjusted -- interest rates.

Also, because employees would vigorously resist wage cuts, deflation would produce an upward bias in real
wages. That's not bad for those holding onto their jobs, but it probably means fewer jobs and higher
unemployment than would otherwise be the case.

In addition, a rapid drop in the price of assets such as real estate and stocks historically has ``held the potential to
be a virulently negative force in the economy,'' Greenspan said, citing the severe economic contraction of the early
1930s following the 1929 stock market crash.

However, he said, ``in most circumstances slowly deflating asset prices probably can be absorbed without ...
marked economic disruptions.''

Deadly bacteria new threat to fruit and produce.
http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/news/national/food-safety.html

Grief! At this rate, gold will go to $10,000 an ounce and we'll
all be dead!

If this keeps up, between the likes of Carl and Studio R, I'll have to remove my hat when I enter Kitco. Carl, your 11:01 was deep...and so true. I think they tried to encapsulate that once in "The road to Hell is paved with good intentions..." Well dissected sir.

The Mutual Fund Meltdown has already started and the outflows have reached record numbers at a time when it should be the inflows leading
the way! The writing is on the wall and there is little doubt that the
insiders are dumping their positions as we speak! In my mind it is criminal for the industry to keep flogging this idea of holding longterm
and buying on the dips. The majority of the poor have no experience in
the equities field and have surrendered their life savings on the idea
that their money is safe and this is the only answer to retirement!
The Rich are selling the poor their worthless paper as we speak and just
as in 1929 the Poor will suffer!
If you hold mutual funds stop and think this through, once the rich have
sold off their paper in a non-alarming fashion the liqidity will dry up
and the markets will drop like a rock! Then and only then the new spin
will be WE CANNOT BELIEVE THIS! Why do you think that non reporting of
inflows and outflows has become an issue? Why is Greenspan talking about
deflation and how devastating it can be? Is he preparing us for the
fact that deflation is around the corner? Get out while you can and donot
let the BOYS take your money one more time! THINK IT THROUGH!

Yup. Also, it is very interesting that Alan Greenspan should be enunciating the "D" word when for years his goal has been Zero Inflation. This, to his mind, may have meant a modest increase in price indexes of 1 to 2% maximum per year. I think that was his targeted desire in the late 1980's certainly. Now that there is NO perceptible price inflation ( except in the realm of paper assets ) why the admission that there might be cause to worry about Deflation? Is this merely objective prudence on the part of the Chairman, or is it indeed a warning of sorts, on its own face? I tip my hat to Hatt on this one.

Leland: LOL! Thanks for the laugh. I'm going to adopt that as my handle when I'm posting and chating on Y2K boards. Maybe I ought to add that to my signature too as in John Smith, EDPM. Looks nice and official and will get a good laugh when people ask what it means. How about it Y2K'ers. Are we all Doctors of EDPM?

The PM could also stand for precious metals. Help me come up with something for the ED part that is related to precious metals.

fundaMETAList

the other aspect to this is that, given the need for funds on the part of many shaky significant institutions these days, if it was perceived that a deflation danger existed, perhaps there would not be so much of the usual "inflation!" objections to creating even more credit than got us into this mess to get everyone out of it. When the brunt of crisis appears January 22/23, it may be with a sigh of relief on the part of "investors" and "statespersons" that the printing presses get cranked up. Anything will be acceptable then. Look for Chairman G. to find himself in a major career crisis. We will doubtless share in the repercussions to his resume'.

You just about have it: EDPM - Eminent Doctor of Precious Metals.
It's the degree one receives having endured life at Kitco for two semesters in a row.

I am probably a paranoid individual because I do believe that we are manipulated and controlled by an ELITE GROUP. How else can you explain the outrageous lies and misinformation fed to us on a daily basis, not by one media, but all medias acting in concert.

According to Dr. John Coleman, author of "THE COMMITTEE OF 300", the BIS and MIF are clearing house thugs for the rape of a countries assets to be transferred to our so called masters. He also states that;"BANKS DO NOT DEFERENTIATE BETWEEN LEGITAMATE OUTFLOWS OF CAPITAL ( LEGAL ) OR NARCOTICS ( LAUNDERED ) CAPITAL.

The URL for this article can be located by using "INFOSEEK" ( The Committe of 300 ) by Dr. John Coleman. It is quite a lengthy article. I believe reading same could be quite enlightning. Responses, either positive or negative would be appreciated, for as my wife has told me countless times-"YOU'R WRONG."

EDPM as in "End of Dow go Precious Metals"

Mike Sheller, Leland, All: Thanks Mike. There you have it folks. Henceforth, all those having made contributions ( plus Ted ) ( just ribbing ya, man ) to Kitco for two full semesters may sign EDPM after their name as in fundaMETAList, EDPM. This will show all newbies who has been around here for awhile. Personally, I'll have to wait awhile to use this title. I was a lurker for about 14 months before I started posting. I'll have to use ELPM ( Eminint Lurker of Precious Metals ) . It also sounds like "Help Them" which is what we try to do for lurkers here.

It's too much to ask Bart to bestow the EDPM title but when one of his programmers gets some free time, say around 2004, perhaps he could add something to the security system that automagically detects how long someone has been contributing and adds EDPM to his/her handle.

fundaMETAList, ELPM

Thanks for your thoughtful contributions. Though you write with the skill of a ten year-old, the thought is what counts. I would suggest cashing in some of that mutual fund money so you can afford an eighth-grade remedial English class. But if you're only ten years-old, as you appear in your writings, then keep up the good work!

s

According to Davidson and Rees-Mogg in their book 'The Great Reckoning', Five great credit cycles have come to an end over the past three centuries, the last in 1929. On average, the price of gold IN REAL TERMS rose within four years of the end of the credit cycle to exceed its ( inflationary ) high of a decade earlier by 8.5 percent. This means in terms of 1980 dollars, gold would exceed US$925/ounce.

I don't know the exact figure, but probably about US$2000/ounce in today's dollars sounds about right.

a

I hate to point this out because I have so little hope of it happening, but your rough calculation of $2000 gold after a credit cycle also roughly corresponds to the price required to back the present currency in circulation with US gold which is presently held by the US. We can dream, can't we?

downloaded last night has already helped us. Regards:EH

Your comment about Greenspan softening us up for the printing presses: I think we can already hear them creaking. As an exercise yesterday, I compared the increase in currency in circulation during the last 3 months of 1997 to comparable months back to 1986 ( the year before Greenspan ) . The previous year that came anywhere close was 1987, a few months after he came in as chairman. It was either a hell of a Christmas requiring growth in currency at a rate of over 18%, or this is just the start of the great defense against the great burst bubble.

To cut to the chase, read pages 115 to 122 to see correlation of gold prices and the price of opium. All sales are handled in gold and the sudden dumping of tremendous amnts. of opium gold on markets. ( Excuse my spelling. I know it is horrendous. )

http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/display.htm ( UK host ) and

http://www.he.net/~netking/display.htm ( USA host )

are temporary mirror bug-fix pages that I created for Kitco date searching, since the original web page has a "Year 1998 bug"- the page is stuck at "Oct 97", you can't read earlier posts, and there's no '98!

http://quote.yahoo.com/l?s=silver

http://quote.yahoo.com/l?s=gold

I know I'm not the only clueless investor who posts here. So here's a boost up for the others who're struggleing to find out what the gold and silver markets are doing. Symbols such as ^GNX ^GOX ^BNX ^HUV et cetera all work on the Yahoo site

I have read your post over and over. There is much there for me to learn and reflect upon. Thank you once again.

http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/010498/world22_8204.html

Davos, CH
World Economic Forum, this year's meeting ( Dec, 1997 )
A new way...for NWO
http://www.avcinc.com/WELintro.htm

Take a look. This is a world order of a DIFFERENT kind.

Attempting to identify participants to this years Davos
confab, who met with whom, discussing what, and came
across this new marvel for the power brokers. Im feeling queasy again.

This is rather nice...
http://www.heli-link.ch/davos.html

Carl, Donald, anything you can find about this years meeting would be
VERy MUCH appreciated!

...or "Six weks ago I cudn't spll investir and now I are one":

Hmmm, I've been having trouble uploading working http addresses for some reason. Second try:

http://quote.yahoo.com/l?s=silver

http://quote.yahoo.com/l?s=gold

I know I'm not the only clueless investor who posts here. So here's a boost up for the others who're struggleing to find out what the gold and silver markets are doing. Symbols such as ^GNX ^GOX ^BNX ^HUV et cetera all work on the Yahoo site

Can anyone give a web site where St. Helena post notice if dividends
and/or financial statements???

Thanks.

I'm not completely ignorant on Australian ore.
almost so.One of my field references is Dunn's Geology of Gold
I find your post very intereting. Does the gold occur
between the veins and the wall rock? I find Mg to be conducive to
gold deposition. My analytical work leads me to believe that
Mg is a wetting agent for gold. Altered basalt here is
amphibolite and hornblende.Do you have details of
gold deposition you could share.Many thanx. chas.
email is devoto@w3link.com post is 2422 Warrior
Fork Trail, Morganton, N.C. 28655, USA.
P.S. Is there anything to Nautilus Min. Corp?

Keep your shirt on. That was 9:06 of October 4. He's well over 10 by now!

I once knew a Scotsman named ol' Haggis
Who was real negative about Pegasus
"Ya see, mates, even after liquidation
They'll still be in a helluva situation
The Australian goverment won't bail 'em out"
( 'Coz Australia is bankrupt, without a doubt )
Ya best panic like a bunch of nervous grannies
And sell off your shares to cover your fannies
Sell 'em to speculators with balls of steel
Who know when to bottom fish, how to wheel and deal
Your shares you think are worthless have value to some
So hang on for now or else later feel dumb
And in your darkest moments of anxiety and grief
Never give up hope or lose your belief
Remember that Pegasus is a winged horse that flew
From the body of Medusa after she was all through!!!

I've been feeling down, I can't even describe
How miserable I feel being alive
I'm short 100, 000 ounces of silver and twice as much gold
I must have sh__ for brains, I must be an absolute dolt
So I went to my favorite whorehouse to get some cheer
I find it lifts the spirits more than beer
I found myself a hooker beyond compare
She had a kick-ass figure and golden hair
We bonked and bonked until we were both sore
I've never met such an insatiable whore
I pulled out my wallet and offered her my whole wad
If she'd let me spend the night playing with her hot bod
Scowling at my paper money, she'd have none of that
"Give me gold or silver" if you want another crack at bat
So I called up my friends at the ol' CB's
"Guys, I need some gold real fast, if you please
I've got me a whore who's not into American bucks
She wants precious metals or I don't get no F__ks"
They hooted and hollered at my sad position
A horny guy loaded with dollars not getting coition
"Listen, Shorty, we've already lent most of our ore
So much we just can't lend anymore
You see, there's a shortage developing across the land
So you better reacquaint yourself with your left hand!!!"

For those of you unfamilar with the Davos 'experience': it is held
annually in Davos, CH attendance by invitation only; it is a very private gathering of the very top people in an atmosphere that is supposed
to encourage candor and build 'relationships', to whit:

PREMIER--WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
------------------------------------------------------------------ Premier John Savage has been invited to attend the World
Economic Forum, January 27-29 in Davos, Switzerland.
The forum has been held in Davos annually since 1971. It is
regarded as the world's foremost economic conference.
More than 1500 participants will attend, including more than 300
chief executives from the most influential companies in the
world." ( this was last year, or the year before, or something--i forget,
but the idea of JOY at receiving an invitation is 'timely' )

I think it is fair to say THIS year's meeting will be of particular
interest to all of us.

AG in his latest speech hinted He would cut rates soon and declared victory in the war against inflation. Bullish for gold, bearish for the dollar, bearish for U.S. stocks.

Why are lower short rates potentially bearish for stocks? Because the dollar will start to head south and foreigners will start selling U.S. financial assets to lock in their gains while the greenback is still at elevated levels.

BTW, a seaker dollar will be quite bullish for Asian stock markets and Asian funds. If AG follows through the Nikkei's next major move may well be UP.

Southeast Asian stocks, small cap Japanese stocks and gold -- the three big 1997 losers -- probably will be the big winners this year.

The World Economic Forum

The World Economic Forum is a membership-organization which promotes interaction among leaders from government, business, academia and the arts with the objective of improving the state of the world. It has the status of a not-for-profit foundation under Swiss law and is not tied to any political, partisan or regional interests. The World Economic Forum has its headquarters in Geneva, and its President is Klaus Schwab.

The World Economic Forum pursues its aims by organizing high-level meetings and summits, the largest and best-known of which is its Annual Meeting held in the ski resort of Davos in eastern Switzerland. This week-long meeting, informally known as the Davos Symposium, brings together over 800 chief executives, some 200 government leaders, numerous high ranking officials from regional and international organizations, and some 300 experts, scientists, artists and representatives of the media.

http://www3.itu.ch/MISSIONS/US/bb/wef.html

SDRers PS: Louis Freeh attended in 94 or 95
...I did wonder WHY

1500 people gives a lot of cover for a few who wish to meet. Where oh where is that teenage hacker I used to know? Oh, I forgot, he's in jail.

Can we bail him out?

VRONSKY: If Vennerosso is correct that the CBs have lent 8000 tons of gold, that would amount to about $100 billion. If 10% of these defaulted we are talking about $10 billion, not hundreds of billions. Potentially a serious problem, but nothing on the scale of the savings and loan debacle.

Go Niners~~~~~~~~~~~and Chiefs

His mother would kill me. But his mentor, handle was Condor on the net, is quite capable of hacking from inside jail. Last time they had him they let him use a laptop in prison. They have him again, but I suppose they don't let him use a computer.

World Economic Forum was boon, not boondoggle
By BILL GATES
President of Microsoft

A Swiss ski resort. Private jets clogging the tarmac. We're talking a boondoggle here.

That was my skeptical reaction as I landed at the Zurich airport on my way to Davos, a tiny resort village that at the end of each January hosts the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. About 2,000 people attended the 1997 annual meeting, although they were dispersed in multiple sessions so that often only a few dozen people were in a room.

Soldiers with machine guns were much in evidence at my hotel. Fortunately, the machine guns had nothing to do with me."

http://www.hsv.tis.net/htimes/today/access/oldfiles/0304bill.html

Carl@lost.opportunities, Well, we tried to save the world Carl. ( :- )

That 'vicious attack' on my beloved Knicks is not acceptable ta me--prepare your bunker~~~~~~~~~~ This is WAR!--GO 'NINERS'---and oh yeah,GOLD!

I have been trying to put together a little LEGO spaceman. About an hour or so. Nowhere near complete. And I think I have an opinion on world economics?

sheesh!

Well, I just go down to Florida for a week or two and look what happens to this wretched place. No-one is posting, the computers are down, Silver Pl & Au is down. Carl is on the path to beatification, Tolerant1 is on the path to hell, SDRer and JTF are chasing rainbows. LGB has yet to turn a new leaf, that bore aurator has the mornings to himself, the only person that's done anything useful is Ted.

it's 1998 and the goldbugs are gonna hit the fan. Messy.

Are you pulling my chain?? Burrito wafting...catch, eat, and return it dammit!!!!!

go gold

away...to the great western forum to 'plant' the bomb

nothappy

Haven't I seen you somewhere before???!? And Ted is a slacker NIX fan. I can't beleive you are calling James Bond boring......

How is the stock market doing for ya??

away...to break 8300 in Jan

prognasticatingandbombastingobfuscationism....huh?

Have you looked over at Goldsheet? Some files for SGOLY located there at

http://goldsheet.simplenet.com/comps.htm

Or, if not there, look on this site, frequently some info on SA stocks there

http://gold.org

On the television this morning he said that the Treasury's handing over of $US to the IMF will not increase our deficit because in return we get IMF notes which count the same in value.

Please reread that if it is not immediately clear on how things are going to go. We hand over $US, the worlds reserve currency, to the IMF who purchases government bonds from Malaysia, Indonesia, and South Korea in order to give them the money. These govenrment obligations have been reduced to junk status recently by Standard and Poors yet the United States government treats them as equal?

WOW! Sesnos gave him a complete walk on that and the deficit. Rubin says deficit $23 Billion and Sesnos says nothing of the debt going up over $180 billion last year. Of course Sesnos did have harsh words for later guests who suggested paying down the debt with any budget surplus instead of either spending it or giving a tax cut. The media is not liberal, just stupid!

http://www.quote.com/news/recent/nbr/nbr0102.html#STORY3

Does anyone have a link to a story that Soros will loan or give Korea $1 billion? This is reported in Korean language newspapers.

OLD GOLD: I could NOT disagree more with your commentary about the gravity of GOLD LOAN DEFAULTS. Methinks you are missing the point on a number of counts.

You say only 10% of the Veneroso estimate of 8,000 tonnes might default, equaling 800 tonnes. Further, you comment this represents "only" about $10 billion. Here's where your logic is considerably flawed.

Firstly, 800 tonnes represents about 40% of the annual world's gold production. THE ENTIRE WORLDS PRODUCTION! Even at current rates of production, this is indeed a great deal. Furthermore, should the gold price continue lower, more gold mining companies will be forced to default, possibly increasing your guess of only 10% to perhaps explode to 1,500 to 2,000 tonnes in GOLD LOAN DEFAULTS - which is getting uncomfortably close to the entire world's yearly production.

Secondly, using your own guess of only 800 tonnes to arrive at a $10 billion value is totally unrealistic in market terms. When a gold mining companies default on Gold Loans, the Central Banks cannot just chalk it up to a bad debt reserve in the Balance Sheet. On the contrary Central Banks must return that gold to the Balance Sheet - which means the hapless bankers must go to the world spot market to buy 800 tonnes of the yellow metal. Can you possibly imagine the panic and pandemonium in the COMEX, LBMA and other world gold centers, when the Gold SHORTS discover Central Bankers must replenish their empty gold vaults with a volume equivalent to 40% of the worlds annual production. As the mad scramble begins to erupt, it will attract hordes of greedy LONG SPECULATORS, who will catapult the gold market to IRRATIONALLY EXUBERANT LEVELS... reflecting ample historic precedent.

In short, your estimate of only requiring $10 Billion dollars to resolve the GOLD LOAN DEFAULT problem will just be a spit in the bucket. Using your figure of only 800 tonnes of GOLD LOAN DEFAULTS, I would estimate it will easily take FIVE TO TEN TIMES THAT AMOUNT IN US DOLLARS TO REPLACE THE GOLD THE CENTRAL BANKS LOST THROUGH UNTRADITIONAL AND SPECULATIVE OPERATIONS.

Thirdly, we most probably will eventually find out that Venerosos estimate of 8,000 tonnes in Gold Loans was a very conservative figure. It is well-documented that banks, especially foreign Central Banks can literally hide for years commitments or losses. Please also recall our illustrious FRB is NOT SUBJECT TO INDEPENDENT AUDITORS. Moreover, it is of paramount and relevant importance to also recall Central Banks possess about 35,000 tonnes of gold. Then there are all the banks in the private sector, who may have been riding the gold gravy-train in recent years vis--vis the seemingly riskless gold operations. Indeed, 8,000 is an ultra-conservative estimate.

In light of the above, your estimate that only $10 Billion will be needed to cover the looming Central Bank Gold Loan Defaults appears grossly UNDERSTATED.

ALL: Since there is so much talk of it here today, could anyone give me some historical perspective about what gold and other PM's do in times of Deflation?

BTW: I just visited Amazon Books and they have on their home page a little box linking up to books to improve onesself for the New Year. One of those is called "Invest in Stocks". The mania continues...

I am an official EDPM by that definition, but I think it should stand for "Endured Declines in Precious Metals". Whadya think?

Carl: Greenspan's span o' the green in '87 may have had a lot to do with the stock market crash and providing "liquidity" for same.
I guess we both figure the "liquidity" that the coming crisis will require will be oceanic. Titanic.

One must have Endured such declines to BECOME a bona fide Doctor of Precious Metals.

I have read with great interest numerous comments to the effect that at some point in time the world's central bankers will all wake up and realise the error of their ways and reinstate gold as a basis of currency. This fails to take into account basic human nature. The japanese call it "saving face". Lets assume for a moment that there is a total financial collapse on a world wide level. Which of the following would you believe the more likely to happen? Scenario A: All the worlds central bankers get together, realise the error of their ways and go back to the gold standard. B: All the worlds central bankers get together, dicover to their dismay that the financial models they have created are flawed and set about the task of passing the necessary rules and regulation to make the thing work. Government officials despise real change and worship rules and regulations. It would be my guess they would vote for another level of rules and regulations. Besides the taxpayers will wind up paying for the disaster either way so who cares. The only real money is that which is your own and that's not what they are spending.
Crazy Bill

Good grief, that is one whole lotta gold!

Silverbaron.

Thanks for info on St. Helena.

Al

mentioned in your 12:14 for the "brunt of the crisis", is there a reasoning behind this or is it the Mars,Jupiter conjunction?

is he looking for the peasants gold or what?
Soros meets Kim, calls for speedy financial restructuring in South Korea
SEOUL, Jan 4 ( AFP ) - Global mega-investor George Soros met with
South Korean president-elect Kim Dae-Jung and his economic advisors
here Sunday and called for a speedy restructuring of the country's
ailing banks, witnesses said.
Soros, here on a flying visit, also urged the advisors to accept
the need for widespread layoffs as Seoul was scurrying to clear
foreign suspicions about its delayed financial reforms.
The call from Soros, head of the Quantum Fund, came in a
two-hour luncheon meeting with Kim's economic aides, at which Yonhap
News Agency quoted him as saying rapid restructuring would help
South Korea receive syndicated loans from US banks.
Kim's aides told journalists that Soros, who arrived late
Saturday and is scheduled to leave early Monday, was "well versed"
in the Korean situation.
"But Soros wanted to know in detail about South Korea's overall
economic situation, and we spent most of the time explaining it to
him," one aide was quoted as saying.
Soros told reporters in a brief statement on arrival at Seoul's
Kimpo airport late Saturday that he had come for a privte meeting
with Kim and could not make any official comment on his visit.
But he warned that South Korea may go through harder times yet,
despite his upbeat predictions on a long-term basis.
The warning reflected lingering international doubts over the
pace of South Korea's financial reforms demanded by the
International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) in return for a 60-billion-dollar
bailout.

With all the talent which exists in this world, there must be a way to figure out a stable money system. One that we all can agree upon. The more I think about we may just need to go through these cycles. Sort of like a rite a passage.

I truly wish it were not so, hopefully we will find a resolution.

Your post assumes that rules and regulations actually work. If they
did, we wouldn't have a world wide economic collapse. The world will go
back to gold because it's the only solution. Recent history should
show you that your position is in error. What did the Russians do when
the communist system failed? The only way to avoid catastrophe was to
abandon communism and that's what happened. They didn't impose more of
the same failed rules and regulations. The problem with the present
floating fiat currency-fractional reserve system is that it leads to
excessive credit expansion. The system will collapse when confidence is lost in the reserve fiat currency. At that point the only way to restore confidence and permit an orderly reduction in the debt load without massive defaults will be to restore the gold standard at an exchange rate sufficently high to allow the excess debts to be repaid.
Gold will be remonetized therefore because it's the path of least resistance.

MIKE SHELLER: Well, then, I definitely am an EDPM!!!

Southeast Asian Cuurencies Begin 1998 SHARPLY DOWN!

Maylasian, Indonesian & Thailand Currencies Plummeting... AGAIN

John Kutyn is undoubtedly one of last years most brilliant and perceptive analysts on the Domino Effect sweeping through Southeast Asia. His insightful take on currency chaos and stock market turmoil paint a grim picture of what the new year holds for the countries of that area... indeed what the ramifications are for the rest of the world. Following are a few of his random thoughts on the region. Additionally, he shares his opinion of the precarious condition of the Japanese Banking System, and what we might brace ourselves for in 1998.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/kutyn010198.html

The US$10 Bln figure is not the issue as much as the effect on the markets of trying to find 800 Tonnes to buy. Imagine CB's buying 800 tonnes instead of selling the measily 250 tonnes they have this year. That's a psych out. As Vronski said, once the market turns and enough conviction is established that CB sales threats have evaporated then the long bull will run. IMHO, and all disclaimers apply.

OLD GOLD: I could NOT disagree more with your commentary about the gravity of GOLD LOAN DEFAULTS. Methinks you are missing a number of perinent points of consideration.

You say only 10% of the Veneroso estimate of 8,000 tonnes might default, equaling 800 tonnes. Further, you comment this represents "only" about $10 billion. Here's where your logic is considerably flawed.

Firstly, 800 tonnes represents about 40% of the annual world's gold production. THE ENTIRE WORLDS PRODUCTION! Even at current rates of production, this is indeed a great deal. Furthermore, should the gold price continue lower, more gold mining companies will be forced to default, possibly increasing your guess of only 10% to perhaps explode to 1,500 to 2,000 tonnes in GOLD LOAN DEFAULTS - which is getting uncomfortably close to the entire world's yearly production.

Secondly, using your own guess of only 800 tonnes to arrive at a $10 billion value is totally unrealistic in market terms. When gold mining companies default on Gold Loans, the Central Banks cannot just chalk it up to a bad debt reserve in the Balance Sheet. On the contrary Central Banks must return that gold to the Balance Sheet - which means the hapless bankers must go to the world spot market to buy 800 tonnes of the yellow metal. Can you possibly imagine the panic and pandemonium in the COMEX, LBMA and other world gold centers, when the Gold SHORTS discover Central Bankers must replenish their empty gold vaults with a volume equivalent to 40% of the worlds annual production. As the mad scramble begins to erupt, it will attract hordes of greedy LONG SPECULATORS, who will catapult the gold market to IRRATIONALLY EXUBERANT LEVELS... reflecting ample historic precedent.

In short, your estimate of only requiring $10 Billion dollars to resolve the GOLD LOAN DEFAULT problem will just be a spit in the bucket. Using your figure of only 800 tonnes of GOLD LOAN DEFAULTS, I would estimate it will easily take FIVE TO TEN TIMES THAT AMOUNT IN US DOLLARS TO REPLACE THE GOLD THE CENTRAL BANKS LOST THROUGH UNTRADITIONAL AND SPECULATIVE OPERATIONS.

Thirdly, we most probably will eventually find out that Venerosos estimate of 8,000 tonnes in Gold Loans was a very conservative figure. It is well-documented that banks, especially foreign Central Banks can literally hide for years commitments or losses. Please also recall our illustrious FRB is NOT SUBJECT TO INDEPENDENT AUDITORS. Moreover, it is of paramount and relevant importance to also recall Central Banks possess about 35,000 tonnes of gold. Then there are all the banks in the private sector, who may have been riding the gold gravy-train in recent years vis--vis the seemingly riskless gold operations. Indeed, 8,000 is an ultra-conservative estimate.

In light of the above, your estimate that only $10 Billion will be needed to cover the looming Central Bank Gold Loan Defaults appears grossly UNDERSTATED.

Emerald Heights:

Our discussion is too off topic. You can email if you want some other opinions/options.

My sympathy goes out to you.

223

You get a purple heart for having shed blood in PM combat, Buddy. Keep up the god work, soldier.

We have to keep reminding ourselves in this world of vastly inflated paper how small the metals markets are relative to the paper markets and therefore ( as vronsky and Allen point out ) how potentially explosive small changes in psychology based on tiny events could turn out to be. I think this is revealed graphically by Donald's ratios and is an underlying reason for cycles in general.

and low in short term volatility. When a market experiences increased volatility and becomes mixed in sentiment, then bad news can precipitate a panic. At this time we have the mixed sentiment as evidenced by a seesawing sideways market, selling into rallies and Mfund outflows. We have the bad news almost every day. I think the only reason that we are not tanked already is that the US$ is still considered THE safe haven. If Greenspan & Co marginally lower the prime rate in an effort to releave pressure on Japan and Korea, then we are definitely toast. As US$ are cashed in for other currencies the US$ will drop and others will look to exit. Our markets will deflate like a balloon with a wide hole in it. Of course this will allow Asia to regain balance. If this is the only real option verses deflation "which is AT LEAST AS bad a inflation" then that is what will be. Sorry for those caught in the squeeze, but we tried to warn you a while ago and you didn't pay any attention to us then.

With all due respects, to correct the balance sheet the CBs only have to replace the value that the gold is carried at in their particular system. This is seldom anywhere near the market price....

The emotional impact to 'the system" will be glorious...

Here is an interesting article by Pringle from November/97 .... sorry if it has been posted before - but I do not remember seeing it. Some interesting charts on gold sales of '97 relative to other years ..... bottom line - really very little sold when compared to other years, when much more was sold and the price of gold *rose* considerably.

http://www.gold.org/Gedt/Speeches/Rp_9711/Rp_van.htm

OLD GOLD - Postscript:

Ironically, Central Banks may someday soon have to START BUYING GOLD to raise the price... the purpose would be to PROTECT THEIR GOLD LOANS TO Financially WEAK Gold Companies, whose Balance Sheets are being relentlessly wasted due to the protracted price decline in the yellow.

IMCO, precisely because of the CENTRAL BANK GOLD LOANS ( among many other fundamental reasons elaborated upon here at Kitco ad nauseam ) , there is NOW a floor under gold prices.

ALLEN ( USA ) : Having nearly bled to death a couple of times already from being on the wrong side of a PM hemorrhage, I ought accept your medal of valor with pride and honor. I think, though, that even in jest it is better to reserve the "Purple Heart" for those like Mike who have endured real blood-letting in war. Instead, I vote to designate a parallel award for PM battle heroism - something like a "Lead Maple Leaf" or a "Pewter Krugerrand". As a mere Corporal in in the PM war's, I'd accept one of those with no reservations.

I'm off to make a recording of a Haydn chamber work for flute, violin, and cello. Due to the Kitco Y10/98 problem, I probably won't be able to read anything posted beyond this point today. See y'all later.

Spent the night and day ( during Football games ) going over the 45 posts of ANOTHER. Woooooeeeeee!

By the way thankyou whoever posted the link of all of his/her posts, had problems relooking up to find who did it! I have very little free time and only able to drop in at the sight time to time!

To the point, what is the opinion here of anothers thoughts?

Many of the events and plays seem credible enough. The desire to continue the facade ( economy ) at all cost is there.

I have a problem with theory of the CB's allowing the price fall where a nation such as China or Iran ( nations that would have motives ) could basically destroy the finicial system as we know it.

Is the finicial system that close to a collapse for them to exspose themselves @ this level as a desperate measure to give time to come up with another solution .

It would seem that the superwealthy would stand more to loose if collapse unless major power play! Would that be worth all the deaths an anarchy that it would bring?

I have been in steady contact with bullion dealers and they state no problems in gold deliveries. Has anybody heard differently. Has the gentleman in Texas took delivery of his conttract yet?

Did the group sermise that the is actually Big Trader trying to envoke the physical buying neccessary to cause the panic!

If not why would he practically plead us to save ourselves by buying phisical.

Does it weigh so heavily on him that it the compells him/her to get the word out under a cloak of amunity? ( An insider? )

Bill Buckler what do you think?; you surely have connections to check if some of what is being stated is credible!


I definitely need to allow more time to this sight, not only am I getting an economy/conspiracy 101 but my spelling is emproving!

Well maybe not

Replies please If you don't want to post on sight please e-mail!

refer@televar.com

"They also accuse the Clinton administration of skirting Congress by using money in a special currency exchange fund. It falls under the exclusive control of Rubin, with President Clinton's approval, so that it can be tapped without requesting permission from Congress."

January 4, 1998

Rubin defends Asian bailouts, seeks IMF funding boost

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The Clinton administration on Sunday defended its role in multibillion-dollar bailouts for Asia's embattled economies and said it expected Congress to boost IMF funding to cope with financial catastrophes.
 "It is extremely important that the United States provide the kind of leadership that we are -- important because our economic interests are so much at stake," U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin told CBS's "Face the Nation" program.
 A financial crisis has roiled markets throughout Asia and in much of the rest of the world. Three of the hardest-hit countries -- Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea -- were forced to seek multibillion-dollar bailout loans from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) .
 The United States and other rich countries have agreed to contribute billions of dollars to support the IMF-led bailouts. But the Clinton administration's decision to join the rescue effort has drawn heavy fire from many U.S. lawmakers.
 Some Republicans say American taxpayers should not bail out other countries responsible for their own financial crises.
 They also accuse the Clinton administration of skirting Congress by using money in a special currency exchange fund. It falls under the exclusive control of Rubin, with President Clinton's approval, so that it can be tapped without requesting permission from Congress.
 Although Rubin said the market turmoil in Asia would not derail the U.S. economy, he insisted that it was crucial that the United States play its part and "provide leadership" to contain financial crises overseas.
 "Our economic well-being is inevitably and inextricably going to be very much affected by well-being of nations around the world," Rubin said on CNN's "Late Edition".
 "That's why we are so deeply involved in working with the international community to try to reestablish financial stability in South Korea, and try to limit the contagion and the spreading of these problems to other emerging and developing countries."
 Rubin said the Clinton administration would press Congress when it reconvenes to approve legislation boosting IMF resources, which have been drained by loans in Asia.
 Analysts expect a bitter struggle in Congress over the legislation, but Rubin told CNN it was his "hope and expectation" that Congress would approve the IMF increases.
 Pending before Congress is legislation that would make an extra $3.5 billion available to the IMF for an emergency lending facility, as well as around $15 billion to cover the U.S. share of a quota increase to replenish funds approved by the IMF board in September.
 "We've had very constructive discussions over the recess with the leaders in Congress, chairmen of the various committees and others," Rubin said.
 He said these talks focused on the "enormous interest that our country has -- our economic interest, our national security interests -- in having a strong IMF that can help put in place rigorous reform programs and also provide the funding needed to get through difficult periods in these emerging countries."


Hi Guys, ...anyone know the URL to get Jan 1 postings? ( catching up )

http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/display.htm

how is S.Korea placed to repay it's botched gold derivative plays.
I recall some posted Reuters articles of how they were beginning to struggle with these just before their currency really went vertical ( downwards ) .
They boldly said "...we will make good on our gold commmitments at all costs...", their currency has devalued 50% since....Donald anybody have news of what this situation is now? Is this why the are asking all their little people to hand over gold to "help the country"...are the big boys asking for them to make physical delivery on loaned paper gold?...sounds like the scam of the millenium is played out all over Asia right now.
Only Malayasia has the gaming nous ( Dr. Mahatmir Mohammed has been playing currency markets on behalf of Malayasia for years ) to not submit to the IMF paper game....get this they want a large portion of the little gold holders in Asia to give their gold up ( by forcing their currencies down ) , then they can control their destinies with paper promises ( good and bad ) .

In her discussion of "The Derivatives Revolution, Jessica Cross carefully included the phrase "Highly Leveraged" and considered this the key to understanding how the derivatives have imposed their presence on the gold market. Gearing has become synonymous with derivatives, especially options. Option leverage represents possibly one of the derivatives greatest assests, but also one of their serious liabilities.

The premium paid for an option is always only a small proportion of the total value of its underlying commodity so, with little in the way of capital outlay, buyers of gold options can acquire a relatively large exposure to gold. If the potential benefit of dealing in options can be in excess of 100 times greater than that of dealing in the physical metal, then the potential risk of the exposure is equally great, should the gold price move against the witer of the option.

When derivatives are good they are very very good. When they are bad, they are horrid. The beauty and the beast.

IF money gained from the gold derivatives has been re-invested say in Asia, AND these persons are now exposed to RISK on the Asian front! Dear -e-me, what a problem they have got - they either still have to pay for the gold, or return it.

Anyone with experience in gold evaluation, particularly the Lerchs Grossman optimisation of open pit mineable reserves, knows the sensitivity of reserves to gold price. Similarly, if you get the grade control wrong, it's the difference between profit and loss. Gold mining is NOT easy.

For what it is worth, I tend to think that Rothchild/Soros/associates
being a GOLD CARTEL form a pivot in the whole exercise, and win either way - they have most likely made money taking gold down, perhaps it is now time to take gold up. Rember Metallgesellschaft, Procotor and Gamble, and Koshima Oil.

"This could not happen with GOLD - GOLD is different!". Oh yes it can!!!

Aye, Haggis

I saw Robbin' Rubin on TV today. He also said the US Office of Management & Budget ( or Congressional Budget Office, I forget which ) has agreed to accept the IOU's from the IMF as being equivalent to cash, so there will be no impact on the annual budget defecit! This goes great along with Japanese financial valuations being accounted for at cost in lieu of lower of cost or market. Coming next, pro wrestling IS real!

Gold opens lower in overnight trading...Feb. gold quoted at 288.3

Gloomy: Good ta see ya didn't blow yer brains out ( welcome back!! ) EB:Go 'Niners' and 'Broncos'----lakers suk~~~~~

KIWI: Yes, it IS the Mars/Jupiter conjunction at 27 Aquarius SQUARE NYSE Sun. That will be the "brunt of the crisis" around January 22/23. Gotta be.

SPEED:......thanks.

Well, I sat down to dinner ready to eat
Sweet potatoes, pasta, and real tender meat
Prepared by my wife, she's a super, fine cooker
And let me tellya, she also one hot, sexy looker
I inhaled the dinner's aroma, let it waft up up my nose
And much to my surprise, instead of food, I smelled gold
My nose started tingling like never before
The sensations were sharp, knocked me right to the floor
I looked up at my wife with a sh__-eating grin
"Honey, there's one helluva gold short squeeze about to begin!!"
There'll be index fund managers wetting their pants
There'll be central bankers running round in a total, dazed trance
Screams will be heard reverberating across the trading room floor
As the shorters desperately search for an ounce of gold to score
And as gold soars through the roof to eight hundred an ounce
Wall Street bulls will be praying for at least a dead cat bounce
Anything's better than nothing, they'll say
As they fall to their knees, bow their heads, and pray
To a God who is totally deaf to their earnest cries
Who is punishing them for their New Paradigm lies
"I warned you in church when you prayed to Me last Sunday
You better run out and buy a holy load of gold on Monday!!!"

.

Since last post...Feb. gold back up to 289.

A moment of silence for us suffering chiefs fans.Thank you.

The more I read here and learn the more nervous I become. I want to thank everyone for the education and the diverse thoughts that abound here.

Special thanks to Bart and Kitco. This site truly is a treasure.

Allen ( USA ) ( Gold Loan Defaults ) :

I can see it now... it would be the greatest slap-stick commedy act ever put on TV. Greater than Fats & Skinny, Bud Abbot & Lou Costello, or even the Three Stooges. Of course I'm referring to a hypothetical.

Let's suppose that push comes to shove in the world gold markets. Gold continues lower for a lengthy period, causing the bankruptcy of many companies with huge outstanding Gold Loans owed to the FRB. When the smoke clears, it is made public that the FRB is 100,000,000 ounces of the yellow metal. And per the exotic & "creative" accounting of the FRB, only 25,000,000 ounces are returned to the vault.

One Act Commedy: Alan Greenspan trying to explain what happened to the other 75,000,000 ounces of gold to a Congressional Committee made up of 8 Republicans and 2 Democrats!

"Mr. Greenspan, Say What? - What do you mean that gold was only carried on the books at $42.67?" "This is ludicrous! Unreasonable!" "Who authorized this absurdity?" "And who said you could speculate with the public's gold?" "I CAN'T HEAR YOU, MR. GREENSPAN."

"Mr. Senator, ya-see, errr, ahhh, I mean..., that is... etc etc"

This is for high comedy

Saturday January 3, 2:20 pm Eastern Time

Faulty data cloud U.S. deflation debate--Greenspan

CHICAGO, Jan 3 ( Reuters ) - A growing debate in the United States over the potential threat of deflation is
hampered by faulty price measures and lacks clarity, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on
Saturday.

In his most detailed comments on the issue yet, he avoided taking a stand on whether a danger of falling prices
existed in the U.S. economy but said this force could be at least as destabilizing as a pickup in the general price
level.

``Even if deflation is not considered a significant near-term risk for the economy, the increasing discussion of it
could be clearer in defining the circumstance,'' he said in a speech prepared for delivery to the American Economic
Association.

Inflation had declined to the point where even an upward bias of a few tenths of a point mattered, he said.
``Inflation has become so low that policymakers need to consider at what point effective price stability has been
reached,'' he noted.

Turning to Asia, he said a gradual fall in asset prices had contributed to the recent financial crisis there, but added
that in most cases this type of deflation could be absorbed by the economy.

``But historically, it has been very rapid asset price declines -- in equity and real estate, especially -- that have held
the potential to be a virulently negative force in the economy,'' he said.

G'Day,

The said gold mineralisation occurs on the edge of the quartz veins, within the potassic alteration ( biotite alteration ) halo. In this particular case, the "free" gold occurs in association with biotite + arsenopyrite and carbonates.

Aye, Haggis

Was able to stain the deck today ( mid-40's and windy ) ---Who would have thunk it???

And is it your opinion then, that the Aussie Govt. will allow liquidation?

What URL are you using to see the results?

When I look at this graph I see that Gold made a simple correction within a bear market, moving from the lower bollinger band and 'ALMOST' touching the upper bollenger band and now is turning DOWN! The NEXT wave DOWN is now in progress. I have stated and worned you that the low is NOT in yet. You had better have your stops in on your foolish long position if you want to be around when the real rally starts!

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/fstwin21.gif

Sentence should read:

"When the smoke clears, it is made public that the FRB is OUT 100,000,000 ounces of the yellow metal.

Was just listening to yet anotehr brilliant show by Bob Brinker, perhaps the nations most successful market timing guru. Highlights today;

We may have a "buy" opportunity in Equities if we reach levels equal to October low.

Investors need to wake up and stop expecting huge returns from the market. 10 to 11% is historical. Past 4 years returns represent an extraordinary ( and unsustainable ) confluence of economic circumstances.

Stocks are still the place to be in the long run. S&P gained more than 30% in 1997.

Gold and Gold funds have been an excpetionally dismal investment, ( Mida losing 62% in 1997 as the worst mutual funds loss of the year, while S&P index, which represents 70% of the market, rose 30+ percent )

Gold investments can only be characterized as "disastrous" for anyone who has listened to the GoldBugs of recent times, and such investors will likely NEVER recover from their losses, and lost gains, regradless of future market direction in Equities, or Gold.

G'Day,

Aye, it makes you wonder what "Old" George was doing. Perhaps he was there to get a contract signed, or something to that effect. The Koreans, well it gives them more time, and reason, to worry about the fine print later!!!

Aye, Haggis

I heard a rumor ealier today, that South Korea has requested that citizens turn in their Gold, including jewelry. I'm sure this has been discussed here and I missed it. Does anyone know whether there is truth to this?

( Buy St. Gaudens you Gold bugs! They weren't confiscated in the last U.S. Gold recall )

Aye Laddie,

You appear to be a bit keen on Pegasus. Always do your homework! New management is required.

Don't be afraid to set yourself unrealistic goals: it will be so much more challenging!

Aye, Haggis

AG's comments indicate that he's willing to grow money supply even faster in order to stave off deflation, and keep economic growth intact. Considering how terrified AG has been of INFLATION in the past, this seems to be a change of direction for the FED. I wonder of money supply targets will be increased this year?

LGB: It's true, it was reported ( with pictures ) in our papar. Employees at a large corporation were turning in their rings etc. at the workplace.
It's the last thing of value they have and they been dupped into parting with it.
( Im not sure how voluntary it is, what kind of presure is put on employees to contribute to the good of the state???? ) .

yes new management is required, but will that become part of a "bail out" deal of the Aussie Govt., or will they let Pegasus be liquidated? Interested in an Aussie opinion.

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 8:14PM 15096.30 -162.44 -1.06%

Any guess where the bottom is? I have a Feb 280 put that expires 1/9/98, any chance?

Ted I prefer slow poison to guns: slow drip drip drip of my 401 into PM mutuals and down the drain...

ALL

Any news on CDE's enviro law suits? Anyone notice that Rothschild bailled out and October's conv notes purchased by Lazard Freres. Wot does this mean for Coeur D Alene? Looking forward to more losses next Quarter?

Thanks for verification. Hmmm things lookin worse and worse for them then. My company is doing business with Korea, and I can tell you that as to "peer pressure" it's pretty strong there, similar to many Asian cultures where conformity is more highly valued than in this land of rebeliousness. ( Prying from our cold dead fingers and all that! )

guess I'll hear a lot about this tomorrow when I return to the salt mine. ( groan )

NIKKEI down 230 points ( -1.5% )

Have I created a monster??? Has he escaped the lab???

Dollar down only slighty so far against the big four. Perhaps the story this week will be the reaction of the forex markets to Greenspan's d word.

Feb. Gold @ 2-8-9 down .40~~~~~~~~Hey bungalow Bill---what did ya kill--

G'Day,

The Aussie Government or the Northern Territory Administration do not, as a rule, bail out gold mining companies - especially "foreign" ones, with respect.

Pegasus have an operations problem. The feasibility study stated that the grade would be 1.21 g/t at a 0.7 g/t cutoff. Actual production achieved 1.05 g/t, with a lower recovery, and higher operations costs due to higher cyanide consumption caused by copper in the circuit, and higher power costs due to a 20% increase from the gas supply company. The operations management were chasing their tail. Read all about:

http://businesswire.com/cnn/pgu.htm

As for our dear friend FARFETCHED, perhaps he could learn something from the Master - http://calligrafix.co.uk/burns/

Aye, Haggis

The Kennedys are great that is why rightists hate them. Ted wants to lower SS payroll tax on all of us by taking the income cap off the tax. If the govt is using SS funds to indirectly bailout investors ( welfare ) why not raise the tax a little on the rich welfare mamas. Soak the profiteers!!!Yes Uncle SAm/Go IRS!!!

Korea ( south-you idiot ) up 7.20 ( 1.87% ) ....Happiness is a warm gun~~~~~Anyone else having trouble posting here---or is it just me + my ISP....??....I'm so tired I haven't slept a wink.....

What does it matter to Pegasus' current stock price if the Australian government lets Peg Australia fail? After all, Ozzistralia sold off its entire gold reserve...one would not expect any government help ( and the stock already reflects that negative expectation ) .

The only important question that matters now is, "Will Pego's main banks pull the plug or not?"

I doubt they will...and if they do, then the banks are as stupid as the Ozziestralian gov't.

More likely scenario: 1 ) Change of Management
( in chronological 2 ) Corporate Restructuring
order ) 3 ) Bank conversion of Debt to Equity
4 ) Corporate Survival
5 ) Stock price run-up


In conclusion, let me offer up this poem:

I once knew a fella named Haggis
An Ozzie much afraid of Pegasus
When farfel filled him in on the facts
He still refused to relax
'Coz he couldn't make the logical nexus.

Korea ( south-you idiot ) up 7.20 ( 1.87% ) ....Happiness is a warm gun~~~~~Anyone else having trouble posting here---or is it just me + my ISP....??....I'm so tired I haven't slept a wink.....

Too bad that wasn't 'Teddy' playin ski-football ( SPLAT ) ...DUH!

What they need is a damn good wacking~~~~~~~~~

In fact it has been going on for sometime now as the rich slowly but
surely sell their soon to be worthless paper to the poor. The break in
S.E.ASIA was welcomed by those who could still create liquidity in the
markets by talking new year rallies and all that GARBAGE about buy and
hold! The Mutual Fund Meltdown has started and for anyone trying
to time their moves I have some solid advice,SELL SELL SELL!

Tokyo closes morning session on low of day, down 302 points ( -2.0% ) - penetrating the 15000 level to close at 14957.

and I suppose ya believe in the 'Tooth fairy' too ( har har har ) --go gold!!

Good idea~~~~~~~~

Taiwan DOWN, Singapore DOWN & Maylasia DOWN

I can't get current info from Kitco, I hope it gets fixed tomorrow

- The South Korean KBS television network has called on the population to donate gold to help pay the country's foreign debts.
- The Korea Housing Bank is supporting the effort
- Worker groups, such as that at Samsung, have been lining up to donate gold in the form of jewellery.-
- KBS has also encouraged citizens to sell their gold to gold dealers below the actual market value.
- Private gold assets in S,K. are estimated at $US20 billion.

Feb Gold should hit bottom Mon. no lower then 287 with a rally into mid Jan.. Sell Mar S&P at 987.50 or higher with a 992.00 stop objective low 940's.

I guess all libs like you who love the Kennedys are happy the US national debt has grown from $466 billion to $5.5 TRILLION in the last 25 years. And in the same period the federal debt has doubled, from 35 percent of the gross domestic product to 70%. And before you blame Reagan ( and ignore the role the Democratic Congress played ) remember the national debt has increased 25% in the past five years under your boy Clinton. How long before this house of cards falls? Yes, some of these figures have shown some improvement recently, IF YOU IGNORE THE OFF BUDGET BUILD UP IN GOVT COMMITMENTS I.E. GOVT PENSIONS ETC. ETC.

WW -- The Kennedy's are/were not 'great'. They're nothing more than a bunch of hoodwinkers. The favorite political ploy is class envy. Look at how the oldman made his money, rum running during prohibition. He created the family fortune, and the 'kids' have been sqaundering it ever since.

Look, when anyone says," Let's take away from those who have more, and give to the poor...because it isn't fair that they ( the 'rich' ) have more and they really wouldn't miss it anyhow..." This is theivery. Robin Hood did NOT steal from the rich to give to the poor. Robin Hood stole from the TAX COLLECTOR and returned the money to those ( the poor ) from whom it was stolen. Sorry, I meant taxed. That's one reason the the 'sheriff' was so pissed at him.

Here's a thought. Perhaps the younger generations of the Kennedy's are feeling a bit 'guilty' about how the family fortune was made. So, to make themselves feel better, they redistribute my money. Hmmmm.

No, ROR, the Kennedy's are not correct or noble. They are just a political family that's wants to, needs to, feed at the trough of my taxes. If this were not done under the auspices of 'government', I think few would have any trouble recognizing it for what this is. ORGANIZED THEFT.

G'Day Mate,

I do not diaagree with your scenario, ie:

1 ) Change of Management

2 ) Corporate Restructuring

3 ) Bank conversion of Debt to Equity

4 ) Corporate Survival

5 ) Stock price run-up

BUT, you have to get to point 5..............

Pegasus most likely financied the Mt Todd project by means of a GOLD LOAN - who?! ROTHCHILD, they are not happy chappies with Mr Nenneker. After all Pegasus are ONLY at risk on default on a mere US$353 million. I would humbly suggest that point 3, the bank conversion of debt to equity, may prove the stumbling block.

Aye, Haggis

Panda, you are 100% on target with your comments regarding the Kennedy clan. I watched the John Kennedy special on TV no too long ago. The Kennedy crew are lower life than even I had thought before. Sorry WW, the facts do no support greatness, just as the facts label Bill Clinton in the same or lesser ilk.

Unfortunately, in Korea, they don't subscribe to a united, Kamikaze culture ( such as in Japan ) . Their politicians are too busy throwing chairs at each other to unite behind any single goal.

The day any significant number of Koreans turn in their gold ( voluntarily ) will be the day the sun rises in the West.

The smart Koreans are hoarding gold and figuring out how to acquire more.

Which leads me to another poem:

( oh, hell, I'll save it for my next post )

Gotta get the gold from somewhere to back up the gold contracts, no? :- ) )

The more I read the less rigid my position becomes. What is happening in Asia is frightful. There can be no good coming from this as markets around the world dive.

I simply do not know enough to truly understand all of the implications. It is erie to watch as various scenarios unfold. I prey for integrity in those that will lead us through these trying times.

Always remember that whenever you are dancing, consider that there are probably more informed people than you judging your technique.

Aye, Haggis

- some were great ( check your history books )
- some were cheats
- some were great and cheats
- and some, just couldn't 'make it'.
- May they rest in peace.

Per LGB's great lessons on how to make your case LOOK better than it is.

If your trying to make the case that the market is going up then always use big numbers to show gains: UP 99.95 points today. Always use percentages to represent downward action: only down 1.5%, and add to this "didn't crash', or something like that.

If your case is to prove the market is going down do just the opposite. Highlight down number and up percentages: DOWN 67.5, up ONLY 1.7%.

Another thing to remember. Never post when things aren't going your way. Also ridicule anyone who thinks opposite of your views. Find someone you can abuse alot to keep the others at bay.

If you predicted that the 'Asian crisis' will have little impact make sure you don't let on that your business got wacked recently by same. That would give the impression that your first opinion was wrong.

Lastly, even though the market you are nay-saying is going down do yourself a favor and buy its product so that you can brag about your profits when it actually goes up. That way you can have your cake and eat it as well.

Hope this has been instructive.

Tortfeasor -- Unfortunately, I live in the same state as the .... 'family'. It's a real scream when the Hill or Bill come to hide, I mean visit, the compound. They screw up traffic in Boston big time.

Hill, Bill, & company, do us all a favor, stay away! Traffic is bad enough as is!!!!!

Hey! Somebody let me back in.
Or did it just take me that long to find the back door.

And a belated HAPPY NEW YEAR to one and all.

Here's a great url for index and currency charts plus coments.
Most of Asia represented.
http://www.inet.co.th/cyberclub/barton/

Glad to see ya!

ZEE -- They are the most egregious of 'special interest' representatives.

Look, the current rage these days is sexual harassment. So, what does the diversity crowd support? Multilingual T.V. I have a couple of the Spanish stations programmed in to my T.V. I can't understand the language, but I understand the old fat fart on stage with all of the bikini clad, hot babes around him though!!! YEEE HAAA! Ay Carumba! :- ) ) "Diversity" at its' most confused and conflicted. Women aren't supposed to be sex objects and we need multilingual T.V. Go figure?

Check your history books ( har har har ) ~~~~Kennedys suk!!

Happy New Year and welcome back!!---you have been missed!!!

Just what I need, another bookmark.

Pandemonium: Robin hood stole from anyone who had money. He never gave to the poor. Just the poor don't have any money. he once returned two florins to a Bishop after taking 30. Some rep for a common crook eh? Still if the Ken-nudys can look like saints after just two generations.

Ted I am of you but not by you. If times get any worse with POG I'm gonna live under that damn deck -- fight with Willy for food.

- not too sure the quality of Spanish or Mexican T.V equats to the success of multiculturism.
- but, I got your pt.
- to me the brothers Kennedy were the best of what was available - and they represented the generation that voted them in.
- Now, Tricky Dicky, is another story!

Thanks for the welcome gang.

None of you would believe what its like to have no Kitco for Xmas.
What a drug, what an addiction.

And so much going on.

Where's all the money gone.

Anyone notice the Gov't debt to the penny?
Seems like it just took a mighty leap.
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm
It just jumped $43,833,280,902.65 on the 31/12/97

Maybe LBG was paying off his Xmas shopping Visa bill. ( :o}}}}}}

FWIW column. I just saw the PBS Frontline program on the stock market for the umpteenth time now. I was amazed by the letters and voice mail sent to the program. Terms like, "True investor.", and "Crunching the numbers.", were used by these people to defend the market and their actions. As if they somehow 'knew' better than those who were portrayed in the program. I've been muttering for a long time about currencies causing a problem for the equities markets. No one that I talked to personally even new that currencies could affect THEIR stock holdings, much less what relationship the dollar has to equities and commodities. Denial is more than a river in Egypt...

When the bell tolls, it will be ugly. And you damned well better look as poor as everyone else....

Yes, Kitco is addictive -- and I haven't had time to read any posts except yours! It is a bit confusing to post on Jan 4 ,and read on Oct 4, though.

All:

Did you see the Nikkei 225 is now less than 15000, and falling. Think there's going to be a January effect in Japanese stocks? Inverse this year, I think!

I think gold bullion is down over 3.00, but the Kitco 24 hour site looks unfinished.

glenn- do you have any idea which way silver is goin? Thanks!

ZEE -- I think the practice of a less corrupt government died a long time ago. Probably around the 1900 to 1920 era for the U.S. Prior to this time there was much less control and information on individuals. Then came WWI and WWII. With these two wars and a depression in between, we all slowly lost to the leviathan state.

I don't like it when people try to frame tyranny in partisan terms. The Enviromental Protection Agency is one of the darlings of the liberals. Didn't Richard Nixon start that beast up??? I could go on, but I think you get my drift. Remocrats and Depublicans? Yes, there are differences, but will someone ( honesty counts ) with a tough scrotum please stand up! Easy Bill, easy... :- ) )

yep, better either look poor, or rich and dumb like the hyannisportninnies.

You just don't get it...PERCEPTION! THE KEY IS PERCEPTION!

If Pego collapses completely, it will be an anomaly in an equity world that values perception above and beyond fundamentals.

Hoooowever...Haggard Haggis, I'm not saying you're wrong categorically...I just believe the odds favor you are.

P.S. Please drop all this incessant drivel about the "Rothschild Conspiracy." It sounds like an implicit form of anti-semitism ( sort of a gold miner's variation on the "Protocols of the Elders of Zion" ) ...and I'm sure you are more enlightened that that.

It was not too many months ago that I recall a regular contributor of
this discussion group citing that Joe Kennedy actually made a good
deal of his money in the gold market years ago.

For many years, I admired the Kennedy's for the fact that they appeared
to represent the less fortunate, even though they would have reaped greater financial rewards doing otherwise. I see things somewhat
differently today.

I'm sure the Kennedy's do not mind being bashed any more than being praised. Until the media chooses otherwise, they appear to be the
reigning American Royal Family.

All: Sharefin's Barton web site is very informative -- nice graphs on SE Asia in particular. His/her comments on the Dow ( inverse head and shoulders? ) and the dropping US 30 year rates are interesting.

My question to you all -- US 30year interest rates might actually continue to drop, reflecting worsening deflationary problems in the rest of the world. Now, normally this is bullish for the stock market. I wonder -- are we getting set for a bull stock market -- all that foreign money looking for a safe haven?

Isn't this what happened just before the 1929 crash? As I recall, the "powers that be" encouraged the US to drop interest rates because the dollar was too strong, the US market soared -- and the rest is history!

Are we about to repeat the final 1929 runup?

--- Just a thought ---

NEWA: The myth of the Kennedy clan has been debunked everywhere except in the minds of diehard liberals. The "reigning royalty" stuff was created by a fawning press before the Bay of Pigs, Chappaquidick, Vietnam and Marilyn Monroe etc. etc. Allow them to bury their dead in peace, but don't spread the fertilizer about how "great" they are/were. I'd rather be ruled by the first 535 people in the Houston phone book.

JTF -- Here's a weekly chart of the spread between short rates ( 90 day ) and the long bond yield.

Can anyone point me to bargain Australian gold stocks? Also is this a good time to invest in gold stocks or should I focus on gold itself?

the tsunami----

when generated in the deep oceans produces waves
maybe no more than 1/2'. when the wave reaches
the shallows, the mass of water actually being moved
becomes evident as towering waves....

the currency tsunami-----

this pressure wave was generated in deep water and
is moving towards the us mainland with great rapidity.
due to the great distance and extreme depths ( strong us markets ) ,
the resident analysts have totally dis-counted its'
probable effects. they have assured all the coastal
dwellers there is no danger and everything will always
be perfect....

as the paper-tsunami rips asunder, and the analysts scurry
for cover, there will be no answer except...you lost it all....sorry...

for every action.......fiat curriencies have huge debts to pay...
the pendulum will treat them to a ink-bath never before seen...the ink
they have floated will sink their own ship......

+4 and counting.......very, very soon....the pressure wave from
afar approaches.......better be on high ground......

all hell is fixing to break out............

cherokee!; ) ---focused-on-the-locus-------

Either short rates will drop like a rock or the long bond drops like a rock. Which is it to be?

Where is it writen that lower interest rates ALWAYS cause the stock market to go up? What about recessions? Come to think of it, non of this matters because the stock market will go up forever and ever. Amongst other new things, we now understand what electricity, magnetism, and gravity is. Also, men now understand women.... :- ) ) ( Not a chance! )

FWIW... Xau is in a equilibrium on the chart.it will have to climb over 76 pretty quick,breaking 74.5 it will skid to 72 and 68.Gold breaking 286,it will test 282 and 280.Cycles are friendly till January 22.
Happy trading

Willy is tuff.....

Great to have you back. You were sorely missed. Your contributions were missed, your charts were missed, your poems were missed, your comments were missed, your url's were missed, your humor was missed. ... Well, I guess you were missed.

- IMHO... G.C.M. is a producer that has been oversold and presents excellent upside potential
- check out Great Central Mines and the Australian Stock Exchange web sites......cheers

Tomorrow begins the week of real trading after the holidaze...

Good night all...........

Panda - I'm not completely clear on the value of the interest rate spread. Am I right that when it drops, as it is doing now, Bank profits get hit? Also, an inverted yield curve is typically reflective of "tight" money, not the deflationary scenario AG is talking about.

My original question was slightly different -- long term rates are not controlled by the Fed, and are dropping. It is only short term rates that are rising.

My assessment from this is that the buyers of long term US bonds consider tham attractive right now -- probably because fo the "safe haven effect" If so, long term US rates may continue to drop. If I am right, rates of other "strong" currencies such as the German Mark, Swiss Frank, etc would have to drop as well. If not, I would conclude that the world deflation problem is not that serious.

I wonder -- maybe Cherokee is right -- and we are just getting "turbulence" before the "tsunami". Perhaps it is time to bail out of gold stocks competely and wait for a more clear-cut sign of a trend.

JTF
We have a good chance of falling sharply here - this week.

But a break up into a new bull leg would be an awesome sight.
The Dow could well go up to 9300 in a short period of time.
Say 9300 by the third week of Feb.
( Lots of cycle clusters then. )

But the crash potential from that point would be ugly.
I don't think a new leg will be allowed.

AG's got enough egg on his face.

G'nite all----S+P futures down 2.70 and Feb. gold down .40

An interesting sideline to the more ominous & immediate is the reaction of Senators & Congressmen when asked if they will use the much heralded budget surplus to reduce the debt. Not one that I've heard wants to lower the debt - those guys have no intentions of being noble and/or responsible! It's digusting!

Yeah.........and I'm gonna bust out some of you're teeth......................good one...... ( whew! ) ...

away...to Philly



hey Nick...welcome back mate.

G'Day Mate,

A couple of FACTS, something which you find a wee bit difficult to face up to.

ROTHCHILD supplied the gold loan to Pegasus for Mt Todd. Check it out!

Pegasus have got a problem. Check it out!

Even YOU, by means of "investing" in Pegasus shares, CANNOT solve that problem. Check it out!

If you disagree with somebody, make your feelings known. Use positive reinforcement, such as : "You still wouldn't have a clue, WOULD YOU".

Your poems!?!?

"With Pegasus upon a day
Applo, weary flying
Through frosty hills the journey lay,
On foot the way was plying"

.......Pegasus at Wanlockhead, by Robert Burns: 1759 to 1796.

Were you born then!!

Aye, Haggis

Date: Sun Jan 04 1998 22:50
A.Goose ( Wow! Sharefin is BACK!!!!!!! ) ID#20137:
Great to have you back. You were sorely missed. Your contributions were
missed, your charts were missed, your poems were missed, your comments
were missed, your url's were missed, your humor was missed. ... Well, I guess you were missed.

G'Day,

Joe Gutnick, Great Central Mines and associated companies:

http://www.ausgold.com/index.html

You may wish to prioritise Johnson's Well Mining. This IS a good one.

Aye, Haggis

Being that I live in a Kansas City suburb: Olathe, the defeat of the Chiefs is especially painful. With that said there is always next year. Now for the on topic stuff. Glad to see Glenn posting. Thanks Glenn!! I remember when him and Oldman would banter quite regularly. Anyway if Glenn is right then the next down wave will be an excellent buying opportunity, especially with talk of gold loan defaults in the air. Gosh I am starting to feel the electricity in the air.

I wouldn't give up my gold positions, including the stocks, but I really don't see much hope for more than a rally until the monetary authorities realize that the currency mess can't be put right without a more solid frame of reference than another managed currency. When the too strong dollar starts to hurt politically powerful business and labor interests there will be a squeal for relief a la cheaper dollar. Probably a lot more anti foreigner rhetoric too. World trade slows down, Long term rates go up as short rates are manipulated down, stocks tank as mutual fund proxy "investors" bail out of their highly leveraged derivatives. The expectations underpinning stock valuations are exposed as hot air and the major collateral for expansion of credit at this time shrinks to the chagrin of many. Can anyone offer a scenario where soft landing is possible under current conditions now that the unravelling has begun? I'm not saying this might not be good for gold but that extreme volatility will probably set in based on the height of short term interest rates.
Thanks for the opporunity to participate.

sharefin: Kia Ora mate.

aurator

What happens when you default on a gold loan?

A gold loan is a principal to principal agreement involving only two couterparties.

A gold loan may be described as the MOST NOTORIOUS of the derivatives related to gold.

A gold loan is taken for the borrowing of metal to raise capital to finance large mining projects.

Now, if you followed Vronskys' comments concerning DEFAULTS on gold derivatives earlier today, you might have learned something.

Pegasus are AT RISK of default on a gold loan!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Do you wish me to repeat my self........Ok......

What happens when you default on a gold loan?

A gold loan is a principal to principal agreement involving only two couterparties.

A gold loan may be described as the MOST NOTORIOUS of the derivatives related to gold.

A gold loan is taken for the borrowing of metal to raise capital to finance large mining projects.

Now, if you followed Vronskys' comments concerning DEFAULTS on gold derivatives earlier today, you might have learned something.

Pegasus are AT RISK of default on a gold loan, equivalent to a mere US$353 million!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Aye, Haggis