IMO
Normandy Mining NDY Has forward sold 4 years of gold at A$600
Resolute Mining RSG Way oversold, nickel possibilities, possible takeover
Great Central CCM Possible takeover by Normandy but CEO Gutnick may be positioning for move into Centaur a nickel and gold producer.

For speculative info on Aussie stocks go to Hotcopper forum

Not trying to be negative but I believe we will get right back into the
manipulated gameplan when gold opens in New York! They have such a very
tight control on the gold market that it is going to take something
unusual to break this market wide open. The last half of 1997 was the
most obvious case of market manipulation I have ever seen and I expect
the first quarter of 1998 to be no different. Gold will open in New York
$1.00-$1.50 down. HOPE I AM WRONG!

I wouldn't give up my gold positions, including the stocks, but I really don't see much hope for more than a rally until the monetary authorities realize that the currency mess can't be put right without a more solid frame of reference than another managed currency. When the too strong dollar starts to hurt politically powerful business and labor interests there will be a squeal for relief a la cheaper dollar. Probably a lot more anti foreigner rhetoric too. World trade slows down, Long term rates go up as short rates are manipulated down, stocks tank as mutual fund proxy "investors" bail out of their highly leveraged derivatives. The expectations underpinning stock valuations are exposed as hot air and the major collateral for expansion of credit at this time shrinks to the chagrin of many. Can anyone offer a scenario where soft landing is possible under current conditions now that the unravelling has begun? I'm not saying this might not be good for gold but that extreme volatility will probably set in based on the height of short term interest rates.
Thanks for the opporunity to participate.

How do I get back to previous day's posts since date is Oct.?

SouthChinaMarketPlace, Tuesday, Jan 5, 1998

BIS reveals extent of short-term borrowing Lending to troubled Asian emerging economies is dominated by short-term loans and almost 70 per
cent of bank credits granted to South Korea by the middle of last year were due to be repaid within a year or less, the Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ) said yesterday.

http://www.scmp.com/news/business/topbiz.idc

BOJ special loans total 3.6722 trln yen at end-Dec

TOKYO, Jan 5 ( Reuters ) - The Bank of Japan ( BOJ ) said on Monday that its special uncollateralised loans to financial institutions facing fund
shortages totalled 3.6722 trillion yen as of the end of December.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980104/boj_special_loans_to_1.html

Sharefin -- Are you still there? What cycle clusters are you referring to? I do know there is a Solar Eclipse Feb 26.

I have James Flannagan's newletter. He is a cyclist, though his track record is not stellar. Did predict the gold bear, however. Flannagan's predictions are not clear to me -- given that he expected an October market crash which didn't. He still thinks the 60year cycle is the most relevant, but no longer gives specific dates.

By the way -- I think there is something funny about my ISP mail -- can't send anything except ascii. No graphics files,etc.

Cant seem to get past Oct 4 1997?

Bart:
Strange....in order to read current posts, I must make a post, otherwise old October 97 posts come back when the page is reloaded.
Any ideas??

What happens when you default on a gold loan?
A gold loan is a principal to principal agreement involving only two
counterparties.
A gold loan may be described as the MOST NOTORIOUS of the derivatives
related to gold.
A gold loan is taken for the borrowing of metal to raise capital to
finance large mining projects.
Now, if you followed Vronskys' comments concerning DEFAULTS on gold
derivatives earlier today, you might have learned something.
Pegasus are AT RISK of default on a gold loan, equivalent to a mere
US$353 million!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Do you wish me to repeat my self........Ok......
What happens when you default on a gold loan?
A gold loan is a principal to principal agreement involving only two
counterparties.
A gold loan may be described as the MOST NOTORIOUS of the derivatives
related to gold.
A gold loan is taken for the borrowing of metal to raise capital to
finance large mining projects.
Now, if you followed Vronskys' comments concerning DEFAULTS on gold
derivatives earlier today, you might have learned something.
Pegasus are AT RISK of default on a gold loan, equivalent to a mere
US$353 million!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Aye, Haggis

You have to use the following:

http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/display.htm

Save as a "Favorite", and access the January postings from there.

Aye, Haggis

Try this, watch out you may never return from cyber space. [:- )
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/display.htm

Gold
2892
-2

Silver
5890
-65

SDRer: From your url
http://www.scmp.com/news/business/topbiz.idc


"South Korea's excessive reliance on short-term
debt has triggered a liquidity squeeze and a brush
with default."

What does that say about the U.S. reliance on short term debt?????

CJinOZ G'day, could you post the URL for that Hotcopper forum TIA

Go Gold, check the chart?

Monday January 5 1998

Nazi gold 'routed
through Macau'
South China Morning Post
Jan 5, 1998, Tuesday
STAFF REPORTER
Nazi gold stolen from Holocaust victims and
plundered from banks in occupied countries may
have ended up on the mainland after travelling from
Portugal to Macau, a Portuguese retired civil
servant claim...

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19980105010707023?=hk&template=hk.htx&maxfieldsize=1521

Buy Gold?

Rothschild: If your ID rings true, you probably know more about what might be coming than the rest of us. My only take on this is that our AG must inflate the dollar like crazy ( already has inflated the dollar somewhat for months ) . Japan has inflated the yen by nearly 21% in the last 3 weeks. The trick is to pour the US dollar money into markets outside the US, so that it just counteracts world-wide deflation, but does not aggravate the US market bubble. I suspect that AG has done this with some success, by increasing foreign CB reserve requirements, among other things. But -- if those foreign governments need to sell dollars when their currencies stabilize -- watch out below for the US dollar! My problem is that even if the dollar drops significantly, gold stocks will go down if the US market crashes. But gold stocks would soar if we just have a equity bear market.

I'm not certain if AG etal can engineer a "soft landing" for the US economy, or for the world for that matter. I think the US economy ( despite our debt problems ) is still pretty strong, and would survive most shocks, with the possible exception of a financial one caused by the implosion of some key Japanese bank.

I wonder -- was that deflation talk by AG an attempt to keep gold down -- since reports of CB gold sale news are now ineffective? He certainly will not want a major gold rally if there is any possbility of a US market crash.

A.Goose, SDRer: Who buys the gold - us or the US? Sorry - couldn't resist. It always comes back to buying gold metal or its equivalent doesn't it? Can't lose with that type of investment, deflation or inflation, or chaos.

Does anyone know where the nikkei is now? yahoo and fidelity nikkei 225 have frozen at 14956.84 -301.90 -1.98%.

Dave in Co
Hope you have a sense of humour, old bean, your Date: Sun Jan 04 1998 12:46 directed at Skeptic's posts of - 09:06, 09:32-- well old Skeptic posted those at 09:06, 09:32 on 4th October!

Kinda like a message in a bottle, or Canada Post eh?

aurator@_it'llhappentometoo

May be closed, I think it is. @1:00am or 1:04am?
Sorry if this a double post????

Profiting from Korea's crisis
MONDAY JANUARY 5 1998

Is banking part of the private sector? As the crisis in east Asia unfolds, the answer turns out, once again, to be both yes and no: profits go to private owners, but losses, if big enough, to taxpayers. As a result, supposedly safe institutions assume vast risks, the result being endemic financial instability.

http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/v75aa6.htm

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/hottips3/Default.htm

Sorry don't know how to do it as a link.

In my post of Jan 01/98 at 17:28 , I describe a probable scenario of
how a "soft landing " would be accomplished, somewhat disagreeing
with your view that "things has begun to unravel and there no stopping"
A major component I describe is the "Psychological Panic Threshold"
which has not as yet been reached in the US or EU.This IMHO would give "THEM" time to gear up their "Weapons of Mass Deception",
which will include cuts in real interest rates.I believe this will be positive
for the equities markets since long term yields would fall to around 5%
looking to trend lower , so that some of that money would therefore
flow into equities for a while in search of better returns. I believe that
both US and EU's will lower rates, thereby taking some of the downward pressure off the US$ and "creating" world demand for the said cheap
goods from Asia.
As I have posted here numerous times now I believe the BIG moves
in GOLD will come when the US$ will be challenged as SOLE world
reserve currency.

They had a quote ( but I wasn't paying attention, sorry! )

http://web.kyoto-inet.or.jp/people/je3tbc/html/sthome.html
http://satellite.nikkei.co.jp/enews/

Looks like market trading halted?
http://personal32.fidelity.com:80/82DEV/the_hub/html/N225.html

Date: Mon Jan 05 1998 01:07
HighRise ( A.Goose ) ID#401460:
maybe it is closed, but look at the url.

http://personal32.fidelity.com:80/82DEV/the_hub/html/N225.html

Looks like it froze at 9pm EST.

UK growth: Rate 'to fall sharply in 1998'
MONDAY JANUARY 5 1998
By Wolfgang Mnchau, Economics Correspondent

UK economic growth is set to fall this year, according to three leading
forecasters. This is a result of high interest rates, an overvalued currency and a tight fiscal policy.

http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/v75c06.htm

From the rural heart of the slave state otherwise known as the USA here is my projection for the price of Homestake Mines. We are in a bottom area and I expect that we might approach $8 at the worst this week, if we have not already in fact seen the bottom. After that a climb to $20 by the first week in June ( slow at first with a strong thrust at the end ) . The only significant sell off on the way up might be $3 beginning March 27 ( from $17 to $13 ) , lasting for about ten days. After reaching $20 the first week in June, 1998, both of my models show a decline into mid September, 1998 followed by a rally into mid November, 1998. One model shows the November, 1998 rally higher than June and the other shows it lower. I will not resolve this until this summer, but in any event a nice rally in imminent.
My model is based on a trend determined by a polynomial equation ( more to remove the changing value of the dollar measuring stick than to project the future ) and more than 400 cyclical oscillations around that trend. My success has been spotty but improving. I had six option trades last summer with either double or triple results on five and one wipeout. Last autumn I bought puts and just closed that position out for a 10 times trade, so I am gaining some confidence, although I will caution you that in the past I have not had such good results. The present combination of oscillations I think is as close as I have ever come to finding the combination to the vault. I started buying shares at $8.5625 within the last two weeks, and will put on my call option position probably this week.
My suggestion to all who wish to break the monopolistic stranglehold that government has on us is to set up a foreign corporation in one of the tax havens like the Turks & Caicos islands and do your trading secretly through that corporation with a Turks & Caicos broker ( no reports to any government and no tax treaty or information exchange agreement ) . With the internet it is very easy to set all this up without venturing much farther than your computer room. Cost about $1,500 annually for a registered agent. If enough of us prevent our master from plundering us, then utilmately this mofia like protection racket will wither.

see ... http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980104/tokyo_stocks_end_low_1.html

As Lgb and Karlito would say, "I knew that." That Skeptic really made me angry in October, and I'm still mad. Gloomy Gus is back so it must be October.

Imagine this old guy with 30 years of programming and database design experience making a mistake like that.

10:56 Nikkei avg. 14,956.84, DN 301.90 points ( close ) ASIA NEWS BRIEFS

Hang Seng Index lunch
10,433.73 ( -246.84 )
Updated at 1.34pm:
REUTERS

Hong Kong stocks slumped to a lower midday close, haunted by regional currencies crashing to record lows and sliding share prices in Tokyo,
brokers said.

The Hang Seng Index closed down 246.84 points, or 2.31 per cent, at 10,433.73.

''The Hong Kong market will in the next couple of months mainly be affected by regional factors rather than the US,'' said Charles Cheung,
executive director at J & A Securities. ''The overall industry environment in the US is still very benign.''

The Philippine peso, the Thai baht, the Indonesian rupiah and the Malaysian ringgit dived to historic lows against the US dollar as concerns about the future of Asian economies lingered.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei-225 took some beating, ending the morning session 1.98 per cent lower at 14,956.84. Trading was only half-day on
Monday.

http://www.scmp.com/news/markets/updates.idc

Some interesting info re: currencies, Japanese market, etc. etc...

G'night!


The Hong Kong market was also digesting US
Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan's
comments on Saturday warning of dangers should
the US economy enter a period of falling prices,
reducing fears he will raise interest rates.

''US markets seem to have taken that very
positively, but I think that could become a new
topic and can actually have a negative effect on all
the global markets,'' Kent Rossiter, of Nikko
Securities, said.

''You could find that consumers would be holding
off some of their purchases and that wouldn't help
profits.''

Higher interbank rates also dampened enthusiasm.
The benchmark three-month Hibor rate was up at
10.27885 per cent at 11.30am aginst 9.22115
the same time on Friday.

Turnover remained slim with investors just back
from their holidays.

Thanks all.

Got it Nikkei closed in half day session.

It took awhile but I understand now.

is this a subtle way to 'close' a fragile market? Did anyone read
anything prior to Monday about Monday being a half session?

Well....
g'night

SDRer:
No I think the market was to be half-day all along. I just didn't pay attention to the early news noting that information.

Sunday January 4, 6:43 pm Eastern Time

TOKYO STOCKS - Factors to watch - January 5

TOKYO, Jan 5 ( Reuters ) - The following are some of the main factors which may influence stock trading in Tokyo on Monday:

Tokyo stocks are expected to trade in a narrow range with few market participants on Monday, which is the first trading day of 1998, dealers
said.

Monday is a half-day session.

OUTLOOK:

*``The Nikkei is expected to move in a limited range but it could rise slightly, like 100 to 150 yen. There will be few participants,'' said Kenji
Karikomi, general manager of Daiwa Securities said.

*Karikomi said that the Nikkei may rise, if only slightly, as traders may place buying orders to enliven the market on its first trading day. He also
said that the Japanese government's planned financial stability package and media reports at the end of last year that foreign firms have started
buying bad loans from Japanese banks may encourage traders.

*``The Nikkei will move only slightly as there are no fresh factors to either buy or sell shares,'' a dealer at a second-tier Japanese securities house
said. Traders may buy shares after the rise in New York but if the Nikkei rises, banks will sell shares to try to push up their earnings for 1997/98,
he said.

MARKET CLOSINGS

*Key 225-share Nikkei average closed 483.52 points or 3.27 percent higher at 15,258.74 last Tuesday.

Tuesday was the last trading day for 1997. The Nikkei finished at the lowest year-end level in 12 years, losing more than 4,000 points from the
start of last year.

*Nikkei March futures added 480 points to close at 15,240 last Tuesday.

*Nikkei 225 March futures traded in Chicago up 25 to 15,250 on Friday.

*Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 56.79 points, or 0.72 percent at 7,965.04 on Friday. *Dollar ended at 132.40/50 yen in New York
on Friday, up from 131.90/00 at the open.

STOCKS TO WATCH

*Manufacturers which export a large volume of their products after the dollar's rise.

*Japan Telecom Co Ltd ( 9434.T ) . Yomiuri Shimbun said on Monday that Japan Telecom will tie up with the U.S.-Franco-German Global One
telecom partnership.

JTF: You are first person I've seen to comment on historical fact that a general blow off in stocks would be poison to AU stocks, at least in the first shock ! However, a general bear market may also be negtive to AU stocks. The question in both instances would be driven by liquidity crunch & general demand to hold AU VS. the almighty $.
How does AG pour $s into foreign markets, without these $s hitting our shores sooner ( $s must be sold to buy Yen ) or later ?
Soft landing can not be engineered for Asain deflation by US monetary policy. More $s, lower rates or more credit will not stop cheap goods from coming ashore with destructive results to US profits & balance sheets.
As Ian Anderson might say, A LA, LOCOMOTIVE BREATH : " Noway to slow down !"- Except to hit the wall of contraction known as recession/ depression !

THANKS,
The rest of your Post gives more support to the fact that things are going down the old crapper.
Sorros now AG warn that situation is worse than expecrted. The US is going to loan BILLIONS to the IMF and hide it in the books as same as cash. Rep Kasich form Ohio is going to have a hay day with all of this funny money stuff again.
I feel a lot better now that I heard today that Slick is going to dramatically increase the size of the Peace Corp. What will he do with all of this extra money in the Treasury? Find a few more Shell Games most likely. Man it is great to live in such a rich country. PRINTPRINTPRINTPRINTPRINTPRINTPRINT
I feel better now,

Good Night All

ong Kong
Hang Seng
^HSI
2:03AM
10346.78
-333.79
-3.13%

The key words are: Two Parties.

Pego only needs to negotiate its way out of the mess its in with one other party...not a government, not a multitude of bondholders or preferred shareholders... JUST ONE OTHER PARTY. It makes the matter much less complex.

If that one single party forecloses on Pego, what do they end up with? A mining company they neither wish to run ( nor are able to ) ...whose major assets are gold in the ground ( barely profitable to extract today ) and mining equipment ( not worth a piss in this soft gold market ) . The lender ends up with a meager few cents on the dollar.

Yes, I know it's a "gold loan." ( Geez, I've been investing actively in gold for 10 friggin'years, Haggard, I'm not totally clued out...the poetry is just a hobby...not an ingrained, chronic psychosis ) . But Pego will place the entire company in bankruptcy before it ever does anything as futile as chasing replacement gold in the market ( sorry, Vronsky, I love you but your analysis only makes sense as it applies to CB's...not mining companies ) ...and if the entire company goes into bankruptcy, then the lenders end up with the same forementioned dismal result.

The only hope that the lender ( s ) has to recover the loan ( s ) is through a
strategy known as ROLLOVER AND RE-NEGOTIATE...conversion of debt to equity participation. Again, I cite Sunshine Mining as a classic example of a company thought to be dead in the water that is in the early stages
of a substantive recovery ( in spite of severe equity dilution ) . If silver should break over $7.00, watch that puppy finally take off! ( Two bucks a share at the very least )

Volume in Pego is very heavy ( for a company that is "rooted," as you put it ) . That's because the analyst/pundits ( aka the "proxies" ) have scared the crap out of the equity investors so that the big boys can now step in and pick up million of shares for mere cents.

Any announcement of a successful renegotiation to the Pego mess will shoot the equity up at least 100%. Not bad for a month's work.

Of course, Haggard Haggis, you are right to worry about risk. There are no guarantees in life...the whole thing could collapse but if you wanna dance, you gotta take a chance.

AND BABY...I LOVES TA DANCE!!!!

Still love ya, my ol' Ozzie buddy. Damm...I sure miss ol' Sydney and all those fugly bleached blonde tarts!!! Someday, I'm gonna visit you and you better have a yacht ready to take me around Sydney harbor!!!!!!

Just a reminder of AU stocks when markets fall.
On the left side - OZ All Ords & Oz Gold Index - 1987
On the right side - OZ All Ords & Oz Gold Index - 1997
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Golddown.gif

JTF
Those cluster dates came from that Cycle Trader program.
Swing vibration dynamic dates:
11th Jan to 15th Jan.
15th Feb to 23rd Feb.
5th Mar.
29th Mar to 5th Apr.

Kitco literacy - now there's a challenge.

Try again.
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Golddwn.gif

G'Day Mate,

It will be interesting to see which way they go. I reckon that they have got to the end of the Aussie financial year. In order to get an unbiased veiw why don't you telephone John Pearson at Pegasus in Spokane. Give him my regards.

Also ask him about their Kalgoorlie project with Intermin....get the drift!

Aye, Haggis

Look at this! A new big scandal aboil! http://freerepublic.com/forum/a59681.htm

Haggis
Do you know anything about AFN - Aust Gold Fields.
Their chart looks interesting.

Ta Nick

Plz expand on your point. Are you not saying that AU stocks are strongly pro-cyclical to the general equity market ???

G'Day,

Pegasus until two years ago were a very viable entity, achieving US$410 per ounce on their forwards. Things were going well, they had US$200 million cash in the bank. The question is, where have things gone wrong?
Answer - Management. If you do not have good management, you are F...ed.

Now, as you put it - two parties. Also, BIG BOYS buying in......surprise, surprise, I wonder who, and I will lay a bet with you ( a GOOD bottle of Malt Whiskey - non of your American stuff ( assuming you are a Yank ) - only quality, from Scotland ) ......guess who?

Anyway, I am glad to see that you are now follwing my train of thought.

Keep up your circulation - try striding and stomping around!!!!!!

Aye, Haggis

Newtron
Merely trying to point out that if the equity markets fall then gold shares will go down too.
I'd prefer to bet that the equities will come down rather than gold shares go up.

But your thought is well taken since AU stocks are already beaten down. However, all ships great & small go down in a maelstrom. Maybe AU stocks would pop to the surface sooner though, as compared to a protracted bear market in ordinaries.
Thanks for the documentation.
Y.O.S.- Tar Baby

Jack-booted Feds: http://www.qui-tam.com/HWart1217.htm The whole sordid tale: http:www.qui-tam.com/

Buddy: I posted a couple of weeks back what I was told by a banking industry insider, that criminal banking operations are being conducted w/ the full knowledge of the FDIC.

The FDIC, having info that organized crime is operating and controlling facilities within the U.S. banking industry, will not move on it for fear of their lives.

It's much larger than the instance in your post. But, that instance supports the information I've received.

Thank you for participating.

newtron @ 03:26--Perhaps the example of '73-'74 would provide some possible insight into AU stocks in a secular bear market. As I recall, AU stocks did very well as the DJIA was decimated. Hard to say which way it will go this time. I believe that AU stocks will go the way of Gold, rather the general market. Guess we'll find out soon enough, eh?

Newtron
I am a firm believer that gold and mining shares are dirt cheap.
But even more so I am a believer that equities are over the moon.

I guess I have to wait for equities to drop before I will go for gold shares.
I am looking to propel profits from shorting equities into gold shares positions.

Timing and patience will reward these positions well.
But so far still waiting just like AG.

Should have read--Gold stocks will go the way of Gold, rather than the general market.

Sharefin--Good to have you back, mate! I noticed that the Nikkei was down 2% and Hong Kong was down a whopping 3.5% or 377 points. It closed below its 52 week low today as well.

I do not have any difinitive Sharefin type chart, but my recollection is that AU stocks were flat from 1973 to 1975 while the market crashed, but only because the metal itself was fairly strong - & then they crashed from 1975 to 1976, as AU fell by 50%. Save one good year, we've been in a bear market since 1987 !
As they say, " past performance" is either prologue or no assurance of future perfomance ! We'll see, I believe, prior to Sept of 1998, but my money is riding on cash until I see some real proof that AU price is in difinitive upswing from deteriorating US$ or reversal in CB determiation to back up short speculators with AU leases.
Thanks for your views.
Y.O.S. Tar Baby.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980102/brazil_sets_import_d_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/971231/s_p_freeport_mcmoran_1.html

I agree 100% with your investment strategy. I've been awaiting the most opprotune moment to throw myself in front of that amazing locomotive known as the S & P 500 /Dow 30 & now may be the time to take the plunge !
If you believe as we do that the dow et al will crash soon there will be plenty of time to pick up AU stocks if you have the cash. I believe that an upswing in AU price will be presaged by lower US rates & a deteriorating US$ in time to take advantage of any major bull move in
AU stocks.
GOOD LUCK & HAPPY HUNTING !
Y.O.S.
Tar Baby

All
Ruminations
the focus of attention shifts once more from Northern to southern Hemispheres. Now Questions about the S African & Australian explorers and miners are being asked at kitco. A season or two ago all discussion was N American miners & Bre X despite Crusty's generous contributions. Now y'all looking down under. If you'd just straighten up...
hmmm.
The S of England and Europe ripped by violent gales, Power cuts, property damage, biggest storms in near a generation. The Antipodes facing drought NZ now as well as Aussie. ( Otago, Cantab, Nelson, Wairapa, Hawkes Bay ,all in severe drought - for sharefin & kiwi ) rainfall less than 10% monthly average. High fire risk. The vinters are not smiling so much now. El Nio? or just more flux than usual.

A butterfly over Peking
or a sheep farting in Eketahuna?
Chaos and Dischord are at large my friends
Watch out for golden apples
They are there to entice
"For the Fairest"
Who would not test their mettle
for a chance of glory?
Watch out for Erisian Apples.


The problem is not the cliff in front of us
It's the threat a-midships
And these darned binoculars are getting misted up

auramyopiatora

for salty

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was

convincing the world he didn't exist.

The second greatest was when he taught Shane Warne

spin bowling.

Poor Shane - sold his soul to Lou Cypher.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971231/comex_to_raise_silve_1.html

If we get say a couple of days ABOVE 49 to one on the gold/silver ratio, we MAY get some action that all you SILVER fans might not approve of.

G'Day,

A little difficult tracking down info on this company.

Their telephone number: 0892217300

fax number: 0892217355

The Board is a mix of Aussie/Malaysian/Singaporian.

Resources at Banockburn are 6.7 Mt @ 2.1g/t. They raised AU$14 million through placement.

Main play appears to be in Papua New Guinea, where they have entered negotiations wiith Rio Tinto and Goldfields Ltd concerning the Hidden Valley and Wau projects in Morobe Province - identifed resources of 5.6 Moz gold and 63.6 Moz silver.

Give them a call and ask for their annual report.

Aussie stock brokers can be sourced via:

http://www.minmet.com.au/links7.html

Aye, Haggis

Newtron
yr 1:47 Now if we just had that search feature, why I reckon that possibility of PM equity collapse in sympathy with gen equity collapse might've been talked about for, well since I bin watching almost a year ago. Pity we can't access the old stuff. I'm getting a longing for sepia tinted memories..

I think Old Gold King Cole used to say just the same thing, and a number of other real gems besides. Like Equities will lead the physical, stuff like that.... sigh..... I guess we'll never see his like again?

US: Greenspan warns on price decline

MONDAY JANUARY 5 1998

By Gerard Baker in Chicago

A general decline in prices poses risks to an economy that go beyond those associated with inflation, Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, warned at the weekend.

Although the Fed chairman did not endorse the fears of many private sector economists that the world economy faces the threat of falling prices in the next few years, he acknowledged that the recent sharp decline in inflation rates had prompted wider discussion of the possibility of outright deflation.

"Inflation has become so low that policymakers need to consider at what point effective price stability has been reached," Mr Greenspan told the annual meeting of the American Economic Association and American Finance
Association in Chicago.

"Indeed, some observers have begun to question whether deflation is now a
possibility."

Deflation. like inflation, distorted resource allocation and increased uncertainty, he said, but it also created specific risks.

Nominal interest rates could not fall below zero, he said, so deflation raised the possibility of significant increases in real interest rates.

Also, since there was still strong resistance to wage decreases, falling prices raised the potential for big increases in real wages, with knock-on effects on unemployment.

Rapid declines in the price of assets, such as stocks and property, "held the potential to be a virulently negative force in the economy", he added, noting that this had been the source of many of the problems in Asian countries in the last year.

With consumer prices almost flat, and wholesale prices falling, many US
economists now argue that generalised deflation is a possibility.

They point out that widespread price declines already experienced as a result of global overcapacity in many industries will be reinforced over the next year by the weakness in Asian economies, as those countries push for higher exports through lower prices.

But Mr Greenspan stopped far short of endorsing such concerns and said much of the debate on the subject lacked clarity.

"Regrettably, the term deflation is being used to describe several different states that are not necessarily depicting similar conditions." A decline in asset prices, for example, was not the same as a general decline in the price of products and services.

The Fed chief said deflation would not necessarily be destructive if it coincided with a rapid growth in productivity.

Computer prices, for example, were currently falling sharply. But because of rapid improvements in productivity, companies were achieving real rates of return much higher even than the real rate of interest they were forced to pay.

Mr Greenspan acknowledged that even today's very low inflation rate
misrepresented the true rate of price increases.

He said recent research by Federal Reserve economists confirmed previous
analyses that inflation in the services sector was much lower - and real output much higher - than was suggested in official figures.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980102/dc_bankruptcies_soar_1.html

Donald: Chart arrived today. Thanks.
nite

Caught this;
Date: Mon Jan 05 1998 04:09
newtron ( Auric - AU in storm. ) ID#335184:
I do not have any difinitive Sharefin type chart, but my recollection is that AU stocks
were flat from 1973 to 1975 while the market crashed, but only because the metal
itself was fairly strong - & then they crashed from 1975 to 1976, as AU fell by 50%.
Save one good year, we've been in a bear market since 1987 !
----------
Must comment that you couldn't be more wrong- sorry, but stocks like ASA.
HM, PDG went up several fold in that period, and then corrected, ie.
HM from 2to 13 in '73 then corrrected to between 4-5 by '76.ASA from 11-12 to about 50.
As for you comment about being in a bear marked since '87 sorry but also not so there was a rally from '88 to '89 and from '92to '93and if you look at the loong range picture of most of the major gold they've been in a bull market since the '50s, with most action since '80 sideways, but with major swings.
If you're going to get into golds, these levels are bargain prices, based on recent action. On long term action you're only buying a dip.

Best to you- wish I had the means to buy here!!!

Aurator
No drops where you are cause all the drips are up here.
Innisfail - 90km south had 19 inches over 24 hours the other day.
And that's not breaking records.
We have cyclones to either side of us.
The tourists here love it. Ha!
Its been raining since before Xmas.

Great views from the eyes in the sky.
http://www.ece.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/web/metsat.html

Auric et al.
Many thanks for the warm receptions.
It's great to be aboard again.

Not for LGB's eyes:
SP700's & SP750's puts, offering great risk/reward scenarios if we get a real crash.
These options have the potential to go from $10 to many, many $1,000's
For $10 a contract per month throw away money, these are great insurance.

These option went up over 2000% during the fall in October.
But beware of losing money. Ha!

Up and down, but going down.........

Up and down, but going down.........

http://satellite.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/stox/strend.html

Aye, Haggis

I"m not trying to take credit for inventing the wheel, but since Ive been enjoying KITCO for only 90 days, while Ive seen alot of preying for a general stock market collapse I've seen little appreciation for what this will most likly portend for AU stocks absent a good jump in AU price. I've also had the biological need to sleep a little over these 90 days & I might have missed some watchdog comment from the southern hemisphere that would have balanced the record. However, from the languid tenor of your jaded remarks it sounds as if you don't believe that AU stocks are strongly pro-cyclical & that you will be the one sleeping when the next big AU event arrives, even if it is born on the back of some old truism !
Y.O.S.
Tar Baby

Blanchard at Gold Newsletter is very high on Durban Roodeport Deep of South Africa. Sells as an ADR in the OTC market in US ( symbol DROOY ) . I posted GNL earnings forecast vs. gold price a while back on buy-and-hold message board at

http://www.ragingbull.com

for those who don't have it.

This one looks like a wonderful bottom-fish to me at US$ 1.50/oz for their reserves, paying about a 6% dividend, with a spectacular ( 20 to 1 ) possible gain if gold ever gets back to US$500/oz and stays there. Any comments on this one?

Thanks for your gracious & edifying remarks. I confess to a casual summation of AU stock market activity after 1987, but lets face it the post 87 rallies you mention pale in comparison to the vicious bear drop in 1993 ! From 1987 to 1993 AU stocks fell 97%, even though AU stayed between $350 & $450 !!! That's not a bear that's a blood bath !
While I'm sure your reviw of the particular stocks you mentioned is accurate for the 1973-74 preiod, I believe my statement of the general market as flat during this period is essentially correct.
I agree that this is an exciting time to be considering AU investments & I certainly appreciate your encouragement.
Thanks & Good Luck !!!
Y.O.S. Tar Baby

Behind on my reading. Apologize in advance if this was already posted.

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980105/world/world3.html

Should have read: "From 1987 to 1993 the average Junior AU stock was down about 97% "...
Y.O.S.
Tar Baby

If some of you haven't read it, here is an excellent piece of work on the subject:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/great_crash.html

Reuters Woes
Thailand seeks to renegotiate IMF package terms
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980105/thailand_imf_1stld_1.html
BANGKOK, Jan 5 ( Reuters ) - Crisis-hit Thailand said on Monday it would seek to renegotiate the terms of a $17.2 billion bail-out package for the country with the International Monetary Fund.
Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai said economic problems were likely to prevent the country meeting a key condition in the IMF-arranged package.
``We have cut spending substantially but shortfalls in revenue will be as high as 100 billion baht which makes it important to adjust the plan,''
Chuan predicted last week that the worst was yet to come for Thailand and the economic crisis will linger through most of this year.
He expected the crisis to reach its worst point in the third quarter of this year and to cause further economic contraction and unemployment in the once robust economy.

Taiwan stocks end down on currency worries
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980105/taiwan_stocks_end_do_1.html
``Southeast Asia's currency crisis has shown no signs of abating and the Taiwan dollar also appeared to be under attack,'' said Ting Kong Securities analyst Tsao Chung-ping. ``All these are very alarming to an already cautious stock market.''

HK stocks close sharply down on regional worries
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980105/hk_stocks_close_shar_1.html
``This unsettled regional currency situation will last for another two months,'' Delgado said, adding that after that, investors would still need to make a serious study of the macroeconomic outlook.
``Generally, people enter the New Year and they think that things are going to be better but at the end of the day, nothing has changed,''
``The ( southeast Asian ) economies are still slowing. There is nothing that is going to propel them forward.''
In Hong Kong, the worry is that the currency peg will come under pressure again.
``As long as the peg remains, the pressure stays on the Hong Kong dollar,'' said Delgado. ``And speculative attacks ( on the dollar ) will keep interest rates high.''

FOCUS-Soros eyeing "substantial" Korea investment
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980105/korea_soros_picture_1.html
``We have practically no investments currently, but they could expand quite substantially,'' Soros said.
``In this visit, I was acting as informal adviser,'' Soros said. ``I gave him my views as honestly as I could.''

FOCUS-Indonesia faces austere budget -economists
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980105/indonesia_budget_1.html
JAKARTA, Jan 5 ( Reuters ) - Indonesia will unveil its budget for the next fiscal year amid its worst financial crisis in decades and economic analysts said on Monday that spending cuts were inevitable.
``We do expect the government to balance the budget, but it is doubtful if they will be able to meet the IMF's requirement of one percent of GDP surplus,'

- saw 'The Devil's Advocate' yesterday..... entertaining and theatrical it was.
- but Warnie ain't no Lawyer!
- yet I hear Cronje's favorite song is The Rolling Stones' 'Sympathy for the Devil'
- Go the green and GOLD!.... come to think about it, we share the same national colors.

These URLs should be useful until the bug is fixed ( fairly soon, Jan 5th hopefully ) :

http://www.he.net/~netking/display.htm ( Courtesy of CJS - allows you to post as well )

http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/display.htm ( Courtesy of CJS -

allows you to post as well )

http://www.kitcomm.com/cgi-bin/discussion/display_short_new.cgi ( allows you to view all of 1998, but not post )

http://www.kitcomm.com/cgi-bin/comments/gold/display_short.cgi ( Refresh, rather than press Submit, to read current posts. )

Should have read: "From 1987 to 1993 the average Junior AU stock was down about 97% "...
Y.O.S.
Tar Baby

All's well in Paper World this morning. Gold and oil weak. Dollar strong. Euro stocks strong. Think I'll buy some Microsoft this morning before it doubles. Repeat after me. AG and RR will provide. You also need to whisle past the printing presses.

The following is from this months editorial section of euromoney magazine. ( http://www.euromoney.com ) I read it and thought immediately of farfel. Surely he'll accept the challenge to "do better". Others may well have some comment about the sentiments expressed concerning the euro. Also, for those who periodically revel at the Rothschild's ( and those of us that know the name but not the details of the company ) there is a good overview of the company in the January, 1997 issue of Euromoney.

forgot to hit edit - paste following my last post.

Now, as a special New Year's treat, we have a poem eulogizing the euro, written by Ms Opal Innsbruk, found at the bottom of our copious Christmas mailbag. For full appreciation, read it aloud to your friends and colleagues.

The euro

Tiny little golden coin

On you depends so much

Will you bring what's good for all?

Equal value, smooth transactions

Help towards an understanding

Between the nations all involved?

Or will you bring with you the loss

Of independence, freedom of choice

As with Atlantis - that mythical island of old

Will you sink us without a trace

Under a sea of monopoly and anonymity

And avarice for gold.

Ah, tiny little golden coin

So much depends on you.

Eurogem or Eurotrash? Can you write something better?

AC

Southeast Asian Cuurencies Begin 1998 SHARPLY DOWN!

Maylasian, Indonesian & Thailand Currencies Plummeting... AGAIN

Monday, 5 January 1998: Southeast Asian Stock Markets Continue to FALL:
Nikkei DOWN 2.0%, Hong Kong DOWN 3.5%, Maylesia DOWN 4.4%, Singapore DOWN 1.5% & the Philippines DOWN 1.0%.

John Kutyn is undoubtedly one of last years most brilliant and perceptive analysts on the Domino Effect sweeping through Southeast Asia. His insightful take on currency chaos and stock market turmoil paint a grim picture of what the new year holds for the countries of that area... indeed what the ramifications are for the rest of the world. Following are a few of his random thoughts on the region. Additionally, he shares his opinion of the precarious condition of the Japanese Banking System, and what we might brace ourselves for in 1998.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/kutyn010198.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980105/asia_currencies_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980105/table_euro_banks_rai_1.html

Poly Pam ain't on the album....Feb.gold down .90 @ 288.50

WSJ:
January 5, 1998

Asian Currencies Decline
On Heavy Dollar Buying

An INTERACTIVE JOURNAL News Roundup

Asian currencies plunged Monday as investors returned to the
foreign-currency markets and heavily bought the dollar. Selling drove the
Malaysian ringgit, the Indonesian rupiah, the Thai baht and the Philippine
peso to record lows against the dollar.

At the end of Asian trading and at the start of European trading, the dollar
soared to 133.00, its highest level against the yen since May 11, 1992, in
early trading Monday. The dollar had traded at 132.40 late Friday in New
York.

The tumult in the currency market, in turn, hurt the Asian equities markets.
Japanese stocks fell on the first trading day of the year Monday when
investors back from a weeklong holiday dumped shares amid fear of
further business failures. The benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average sank
nearly 2% in an abbreviated half day of trading.

Analysts said the dollar's rise is being fueled
by economic fundamentals, which continue to
move in its favor, as well as strong corporate
demand from Southeast Asia.

Data from Japan show little sign of indicating
anything other than an economy that remains mired in recession.

At the same time, South Korea is still struggling to put together a
commercial bank package that will help ensure that its corporate sector
doesn't default on loans this year. Latest discussions are said to revolve
around a $21 billion proposal including sovereign bonds and a syndicated
loan.

Southeast Asian currencies were sharply weaker across the board from
the start of Asian trading, as buying in the U.S. dollar for the new year
began in earnest. Volume has picked up considerably from the holiday lull,
with U.S. dollar strength pushed primarily by corporates seeking to cover
foreign debt, traders said.

Traders said the slew of factors behind the currency declines included
uncertainty over Indonesia's budget announcement Tuesday and the health
of President Suharto, falling regional stock prices and worries about
possible speculative attacks on other Asian currencies like the Chinese
yuan and Hong Kong dollar.

Even intervention Monday by Malaysia's Bank Negara to sell small
amounts U.S. dollars for ringgit couldn't help stem the ringgit's slide
Monday, said dealers.

"Until we see some equalization of dollar demand and supply, southeast
Asian currencies will lose ground," said Daniel Lian, head of Asian
markets research at ANZ Investment Bank Singapore.

The U.S. dollar gained 8.7% versus the rupiah, 4.8% against the baht,
2.7% against the ringgit and 1.6% against the peso during the day.

Dealers and analysts also predicted that Southeast Asian currencies will
continue their downward spiral with no relief in the short term. More active
trading Monday showed that the sell-down is once again gathering
momentum, they added.

The Malaysian ringgit hit a new historical low of 4.0600 against the dollar
in late Asian trading Monday on what dealers believe was speculative
buying of the U.S. dollar. Dealers said Malaysia's central bank, Bank
Negara, tried to intervene to stop the decline but to no avail.

In late trading, the dollar was quoted at 4.0550 ringgit, up from 3.9730
ringgit late Friday.

The Philippine peso Monday set a record low at 42.650 pesos against the
dollar. After the U.S. currency darted through a three-tiered volatility band
within the first 90 minutes of currency trading, trading on the Philippine
Dealing System virtually ground to a halt, with no transactions above
42.650 pesos permitted for the rest of the session.

At the close, the dollar averaged 41.738 pesos on the PDS, up 66
centavos from Friday's reference rate of 41.078 pesos.

Indonesia's rupiah also fell to its all-time low in thin dealings late Monday
on fears about the country's economic prospects. After falling to a new
low of 6,750 rupiah to the U.S. dollar earlier in the day, the rupiah was
trading at 6,637.50 rupiah in the spot market in late trading, down 9.6%
from its close Friday at 6,000.

Against the Thai currency, the dollar was at 50.25 baht, slightly below the
record of 50.60 baht seen intraday Monday

but higher than the 48.05 baht seen late Friday. The South Korean won
fell because local importers heavily bought the U.S. currency. The dollar
closed at 1,780 won, higher than 1,695 won Wednesday, the last trading
day of 1997. Local importers traditionally increase their purchase of
dollars early each month.

The drop in Singapore's key trading partners like Malaysia and Indonesia
drove the U.S. dollar to an intraday high of 1.7090 Singapore dollars, shy
of the psychological S$1.71 level, said traders. Late in the day, the
currency was quoted around S$1.7109, up from S$1.6955 at about the
same time on Friday.

The New Taiwan dollar fell to NT$33.226, the lowest level since April
1987. The U.S. dollar ended the session at NT$33.226, the highest since
NT$33.260 was reached on April 27, 1987, as the strong U.S. dollar
continued to gain against regional currencies.

However, concerns Hong Kong monetary authorities would intervene in
the local currency market Monday supported the Hong Kong dollar. In
late trading, the U.S. dollar was unchanged at HK$7.7495 from late
Friday.

Return to top of page
Copyright  1998 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

So let's just print up a bunch of dollars and buy these countries outright.

..

They're certainly cheap enough!!...How bout that SBC-SNG 'deal'....Feb.Gold down 1.40 @ 2-8-8

OLD GOLD: I could NOT disagree more with your commentary about the gravity of GOLD LOAN DEFAULTS. Methinks you are missing a number of perinent points of consideration.

You say only 10% of the Veneroso estimate of 8,000 tonnes might default, equaling 800 tonnes. Further, you comment this represents "only" about $10 billion. Here's where your logic is considerably flawed.

Firstly, 800 tonnes represents about 40% of the annual world's gold production. 40% OF THE ENTIRE WORLDS PRODUCTION! Even at current rates of production, this is indeed a great deal. Furthermore, should the gold price continue lower, more gold mining companies will be forced to default, possibly increasing your guess of only 10% to perhaps explode to 1,500 to 2,000 tonnes in GOLD LOAN DEFAULTS - which is getting uncomfortably close to the entire world's yearly production.

Secondly, using your own guess of only 800 tonnes to arrive at a $10 billion value is totally unrealistic in market terms. When gold mining companies default on Gold Loans, the Central Banks cannot just chalk it up to a bad debt reserve in the Balance Sheet. On the contrary Central Banks must return that gold to the Balance Sheet - which means the hapless bankers must go to the world spot market to buy 800 tonnes of the yellow metal. Can you possibly imagine the panic and pandemonium in the COMEX, LBMA and other world gold centers, when the Gold SHORTS discover Central Bankers must replenish their empty gold vaults with a volume equivalent to 40% of the worlds annual production. As the mad scramble begins to erupt, it will attract hordes of greedy LONG SPECULATORS, who will catapult the gold market to IRRATIONALLY EXUBERANT LEVELS... reflecting ample historic precedent.

In short, your estimate of only requiring $10 Billion dollars to resolve the GOLD LOAN DEFAULT problem will just be a spit in the bucket. And using your figure of only 800 tonnes of GOLD LOAN DEFAULTS, I would estimate it will easily take FIVE TO TEN TIMES THAT AMOUNT IN US DOLLARS TO REPLACE THE GOLD THE CENTRAL BANKS MIGHT LOSE THROUGH UNTRADITIONAL AND SPECULATIVE GOLD OPERATIONS.

Thirdly, we most probably will eventually find out that Venerosos estimate of 8,000 tonnes in Gold Loans was a very conservative figure. It is well-documented that banks, especially foreign Central Banks can literally hide for years commitments or losses. Please also recall our illustrious FRB is NOT SUBJECT TO INDEPENDENT AUDITORS. WHO knows what is the level of outstanding Gold Loans!! Moreover, it is of paramount and relevant importance not to forget Central Banks possess about 35,000 tonnes of gold. ADDTIONALLY, there are all the banks in the private sector, which may have been riding the gold gravy-train in recent years vis--vis the seemingly riskless gold operations. INDEED, 8,000 IS AN ULTRA-CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE.

In light of the above, your estimate that only $10 Billion will be needed to cover the looming Central Bank Gold Loan Defaults appears grossly UNDERSTATED.

Ironically, Central Banks may someday soon have to START BUYING GOLD to raise the price... the purpose would be to PROTECT THEIR GOLD LOANS TO Financially WEAK gold companies, whose Balance Sheets are being wasted due to the protracted price decline in the yellow.

FWIW Xau will be weak enough to hit 68 today.ABX should be a nice short.
If the main market tanks as well,it could drop back to 16.
The plat/gold spread looks still alright.Happy trading

BREAKING STORIES:

Pressure on Jakarta to defy IMF on cuts
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980105/pageone/pageone11.html

Seoul, Bangkok face $178bn payout - European Banks flushed out?
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980105/world/world1.html

Morons in the Australian Tax Office - Surprise, Surprise!
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980105/news/news1.html

Greenspan brings new life to debate on deflation
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980105/world/world3.html

US Dollar demand sends Asian currencies plunging
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980105/asia_currencies_1.html

Rubin defends Asian Bailouts
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/980105/business/stories/asia_1.html

Taiwan Dollar under attack
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980105/taiwan_markets_pictu_1.html

Soros to do Korea over again - softened up for the kill
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980105/korea_soros_picture_1.html

Deflation fears take bonds back to the 60s
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980106/business/business1.html

GREENSPAN DEFLATION SPEECH: Problems of Price Measurement
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980106/verbatim/verbatim1.html

Bonds plummet as deflation fears rise
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980106/market/markets2.html

Asia leads to crisis of confidence
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980106/news/news1.html

IN REVIEW:

The Big Currency traders arent so smart
http://www.businessweek.com/premium/02/b3560228.htm

The Year of the Tiger could be a killer
http://www.businessweek.com/premium/02/b3560287.htm

Soeharto relative's bank gets a let-off
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980103/world/world1.html

Financial breakdown means it's time to reassess IMF role - By George Soros
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980103/world/world1.html

Growth Pearl industry adds lustre to WA's exports
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980103/news/news8.html

The Maverick - Although there seems to be a very tired bull market in the US,
a sustained correction may yet be some time away, writes Gerry van Wyngen.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980103/market/markets4.html

Jakarta rocked by "junk bond" rating
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980102/pageone/pageone6.html

It looks like a boom year for going bust
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980102/news/news7.html

Bracing for year of the sluggish tiger
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980102/world/world2.html

Korean currency plunges as debt blows out to $241bn
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971231/pageone/pageone5.html

Korean currency down 18% as banks bail Seoul
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971231/market/markets1.html

Getting burned by your Company Share Scheme
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971231/news/news1.html

After 15 years the bulls are looking for a break
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971230/invest/ivsuper.html

Big Americans take shine to Australian gold
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971229/invest/invest2.html

Cashed-up firms swoop on Asia
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971229/world/world1.html

Reproducing the 1930s
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971227/world/world1.html

Japanese Banks not out of the woods
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19971226233505010?=biz&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=3318

How Alan Greenspan saved the world
http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/margolis.html

A CHAT WITH THE IMF'S CAMDESSUS
( See, nothing to worry about! Or is there? )
http://www.businessweek.com/1997/52/b3559175.htm

Mid Level Officials lobbying for Chinese Devaluation!
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971219/world/wwashington.html

ASIA'S NEXT CASUALTY? Bad banks could clobber China
http://www.businessweek.com/1997/50/b3557097.htm

BOOKMARK Steves News Page:
( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/blizard.htm

Flight Capital Fuels 15-Year-Old Bull Market

Although Rick Ackermans article was published in a major US newspaper a couple of weeks old, it nevertheless provides some interesting insights to the US market and world problems, which undoubtedly will have an impact in 1998.

With Asia's financial markets festering seemingly beyond remedy, Japan mired in near-depression, and the locomotive economy of South Korea in danger of seizing, why has Wall Street barely flinched?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/ackerman123197.html

G'Day,

Aye, life is good when you only have to deal with concepts. The issues you raise are VERY VALID. Och, whats a few percent here and there especially when you are dealing with the derivatives sliding scale, that is until the CRUNCH happens. I consider that certain dealers/Commercial Banks will be taken to the cleaners by BIG BROTHER BANKS, and a few mining companies who have not calculated their mineable reserves will "end up writing poems"!

Exploration and mining of gold is not easy.

Some comments from the weekrnd's posts-

As to the record of Jim Blanchard, well he started out on the street curb
in the French Market selling gold coins many years ago, now although NOT HANDICAPED he is in a wheelchair, now he sits atop the Whitney National Bank with over $60,000,000. His recommendations are what he buys for his own portfolio. Successful?

James Flannagan gave his BUY for gold and the shares on Oct. 28, 1997-
"The recommendation we about to make carry a higher priority than any recommendations we have made during the past 12 months. In other words,
not only do recommend that you head out advice, but you should DO SO
AGRESSIVELY." Then he went on to give the strongest BUY on gold and the shares since 1992.

Then on Dec. 4, 1997 he says "It appears that we have a total FAILURE
in OUR forecast". Sorry bout that.

Now this AM- Soros has SAVED S. Korea he predicts a DOMINO effect in the positive for the eastern markets, I HAVE ARRIVED, everything will be and is OK.

Bonds UP, Gold DOWN.

Tally Ho

They are jumping out of windows & falling over dead at their desks in Japan, just like the great reckoning of 29 that most of us have only read about in financial histories !
The other parallels are obvious as well: Cultural hubris, massive credit creation resulting in overpowering debt, tremendous over capacity in production of key market products & an opaque unpoliced fiancial & accounting system that invites securities fraud on a gargantuan scale.
I only hope that when they get their beefed up SEC that they don't get Joe Kennedy to set it up, sort of like placing Al Capone in charge of the Untouchables !
Japan has not yet begun to feel the pain that must be faced & endured before this crucible will pass.
Judging from the burden of Asian Flu debt set out @ KITCO a few posts below, it appears that Europe will feel the contraction sooner & more ferociously than the US ! But since the US is the engine of import & imports more finished product than Europe from Asaia, the price & exchange rate deflationary pressure will be most acutely felt in the US. Trade barriers will also be more quickly & easily employed by Euros, not to mention those already in place.
God Bless us all, every one !!!
Y.O.S.
Tar Baby

G'Day,

Somehow, with respect, I just cannot see you being a Cricket type! I must be missing something. Americans and Cricket?

Aye, it makes you wonder.

I apologize if this has already been addressed, but my first and last comment was Christmas eve, and this is my first chance at lurking since the holiday break. But did Bart comment on when one will be able to access 1998 messages? Currently, when I get in I'm automatically put into January, but since Jan and 1998 are not defined, I can't access past messages from over the weekend. Thanks!

Sorry, Just got the update now that I've posted. Thanks!

WELCOME BACK OL' BUDDY!!!

Thanks for the attempt; I don't know what happened.

For Haggis

Yes you are missing something

Not the first time either

Ive been an Aussie for 15 years !!

The frequency of my mentioning this fact is in direct proportion to the

Australian Cricket score.

They are jumping out of windows & falling over dead at their desks in Japan, just like the great reckoning of 29 that most of us have only read about in financial histories !
The other parallels are obvious as well: Cultural hubris, massive credit creation resulting in overpowering debt, tremendous over capacity in production of key market products & an opaque unpoliced fiancial & accounting system that invites securities fraud on a gargantuan scale.
I only hope that when they get their beefed up SEC that they don't get Joe Kennedy to set it up, sort of like placing Al Capone in charge of the Untouchables !
Japan has not yet begun to feel the pain that must be faced & endured before this crucible will pass.
Judging from the burden of Asian Flu debt set out @ KITCO a few posts below, it appears that Europe will feel the contraction sooner & more ferociously than the US ! But since the US is the engine of import & imports more finished product than Europe from Asaia, the price & exchange rate deflationary pressure will be most acutely felt in the US. Trade barriers will also be more quickly & easily employed by Euros, not to mention those already in place.
God Bless us all, every one !!!
Y.O.S.
Tar Baby

TEST

My computer is at work so just now getting caught up. I will always try to
respond to your posts but there may be a day or so lag over the weekends.

Me thinks Glenn and his Bolinger bands are on the money. How low will we go? $260? $250?

I am suffering from more than my normal level of Monday morning confusion.

( 1 ) Money supply is reportedly going up at near-record rates.

( 2 ) Conventional wisdom dictates that increases in the money supply are a leading indicator of inflation. ( the lead time is open to debate )

( 3 ) Yet everyone seems to be predicting deflation in the near future, if not already begun, possibly quite severe.

What is the contravening factor here? Is it that AG in his wisdom is attempting to offset the deflation with the printing presses ( or electron-generators, as the case may be ) ? Or something else that I have failed to read in-between those lines of fine print? E-alms for the clueless, please.

Dr. Thomas Drake generously shares with the GOLD-EAGLE readership a synopsis of his erudite and comprehensive YEAR END MARKET REVIEW.

It is indeed a perceptive and incisive analysis... must reading for the serious market student and professional. Also, very illuminating are the two 23-year charts of GOLD and the US Dollar.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/Aurophile123197.html

Money supply. My take is that there is extrordinary demand for short term money due to SE Asia crisis. This as well as the threat to the US economy from potential dumping by them, threatens to invert the yield curve in the US. AG is printing to head this off. Regardless of the reason, it will be inflationary in the classic monetary sense of inflation even though there may well be extraordinary drops in the prices of certain "asset classes" as Greenspan puts it.

Right out of Dunn.Have friend with a vein mine. The indicator is a potassic spar streak ( which the vein cut ) down to 126' level. Gold is on edges and within the quartz. Really nice results. I've helped him some.
1 day we were checking leads on sidewall. Took 4 X 5 gal. buckets. Only
one showed--22 oz. the biggest was like a dried apricot. Thanx for yours.

Mike Sheller kicks off the New Year with both a warning list of potential hotspots around the world, as well as his campy tribute to magazine horoscopes ( HEY-HEY, check out what the stars hold for YOU in 1998 ) . However, the serious business comes first, as he takes a look at some national horoscopes ( from Cambodia to the USA ) for some clues to future activities, which may affect the financial markets:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/astro123197.html

That you have heard it all, Koreans lining up outside in order to give
the Government their gold! Then some analyst decides that this is bearish
for gold because the Koreans have 2700 tons. The ponzi game continues and
the fact that gold dropped like a rock on the open was no surprise to
many of us. There is too much paper in strong hands right now and until
that paper is passed to the weak hands my call is gold will fall further.
The sheep are being lead to slaughter and their is not a voice loud
enough to get these people to see that the Mutual Fund Mania is about to
unwind. The rich once again will get richer and the poor will be poorer.
The U.S. in my mind has just crossed over into the category of ALL FLASH,
NO REAL CASH! Their economic influence will backfire and Greenspan will
end up being the scapegoat for the government. Donot be too complacent
with the Koreans and donot use logic to forcast their next move as their
culture is one that honors deception in their business dealings. You can
add the japanese to that same category.I hope that they can push gold to
two-fifty over the next few months as it will allow me to continue to
add to my position. Wake Up North America your retirement savings is in
the hands of the Old Boys Club and they will not be happy until they own
a big portion of it.

Glenn was unduly pessimistic. Bollinger bands are tightening and a breakout will be to the upside. The weekly gold chart, from the same source, shows red line now above the blue line. http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/fstwin70.gif. Also please see APH 2/4/98 post of 21:16. He expected February gold to hit bottom today. It hs gone lower than his forecast of 287 but remains above the previous low.

USH8 up like a rocket.
TYN.X down through the floor like gold.
VIX.X at zero?
They will soon be giving puts away.

The turning point must soon be at hand.
Or will the mania get fully blown.

Newtron: Re your 9:56

in which you state "Europe ( will ) feel ( Asian ) contraction sooner and more ferociously than US although will probably suffer less..."

Just what does this mean to you vis a vis European currency directions as all this plays out. I watch the Spanish peseta ( because of personal investments in real property there ) and it has been very weak against the US dollar. In fact, the last day or so ( reflecting the continued slide in SE Asia? ) it has fallen 2.5 pesetas. In general it tends to mirror trends in the mark etc. with some variations, of course.

I do expect it to recover in the future as the dolar readjusts, but this is certainly a long-term view. Should we be expecting further weakness in the next few months? as the situation in Asia worsens? And really, what is the prognosis for the European currencies when ( if? ) the much bally-hooed Euro ever happens. Please forgive my skeptism here as I have been hearing ( from the locals there ) that the unified currency was right around the corner for many years. 1994 was, I remember, considered a sure thing for quite some time.

Anyone else have any ideas or comments on this?

The Hatt: I agree with many of your points.
It just shows you how easy it is to dupe a whole nation. The one asset that may save this population from starvation, they are ready and willing to give up to a bunch lieing politicians. Remember it is these financial wizards that caused all the problems in the first place.
If the current bailout fails - and there is still a very good chance -
then the Koreans will be begars, relying on international humanitarian agencies for the basic neccesities to sustain life.
This is truly a SAD STATE OF AFFAIRS.

It is a major historic event when a Fed Chairman publicly uses the word DEFLATION.
This has to be recognized as a admittal of an existing situation, other wise the word would never have been uttered.

Construction Spending way down.
Imports will be cheap.
All commodities appear to be falling.

The only good sign and it is really a negative is that home owners will be able to refinance shortly, giving them more money to spend.
PRINTING & PRINTING JUST GOES ON

Those, like Buffet, who switched to Bonds were right. I wish I knew why I always fight the obvious - when the big guys move I should move with them.

Time to get "The Great Reckoning" out again.
Looks like a few months before Gold will have a reason to move. Pages 446 &447

Good morning!
Consider for a moment: Tradditional, inflation means it takes more
money to buy that loaf of bread ( money is becoming worthless ) ; deflation traditional means that cash is "King"; this time, the question one
must ask is "What cash?" Do you really want to use the dollar as
a STORE OF VALUE? So, don't drive yourself crazy trying to
analysis their end game [:- ) "They've" never been here before either--although few of them realize that. Just contemplate the dollar, not as a medium of exchange, but as a 'store of value' and decide if THAT is where you want to be. It is NOT my choice!

Thanks for your many post re: Y2K problems. They have been very
helpful and 'informing'.

When I reach Ozziestralia, we'll break out the Chivas Regal...nothing but the best for us!!! And remember, ....I loves ta dance.

Hey, I hear there are two lines forming in Korea:

1 ) The line for Koreans to deposit gold jewellry in the national pot.
2 ) The MUCH LONGER line of Koreans with gold in their pockets lining up at airports to leave the country.

Well, I sat down to dinner ready to eat
Sweet potatoes, pasta, and real tender meat
Prepared by my wife, she's a super, fine cooker
And let me tellya, she also one hot, sexy looker
I inhaled the dinner's aroma, let it waft up up my nose
And much to my surprise, instead of food, I smelled gold
My nose started tingling like never before
The sensations were sharp, knocked me right to the floor
I looked up at my wife with a sh__-eating grin
"Honey, there's one helluva gold short squeeze about to begin!!"
There'll be index fund managers wetting their pants
There'll be central bankers running round in a total, dazed trance
Screams will be heard reverberating across the trading room floor
As the shorters desperately search for an ounce of gold to score
And as gold soars through the roof to eight hundred an ounce
Wall Street bulls will be praying for at least a dead cat bounce
Anything's better than nothing, they'll say
As they fall to their knees, bow their heads, and pray
To a God who is totally deaf to their earnest cries
Who is punishing them for their New Paradigm lies
"I warned you in church when you prayed to Me last Sunday
You better run out and buy a holy load of gold on Monday!!!"

.

D.A. - I was wrong about the pattern. Damn! It took me by suprise. I thought I'd have a chance to put on my 'short-skirt' again but......

http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.html ...someone in NY doesn't like gold this a.m. It looks very planned and well backed ( $ ) . How is my wink case comming along? And it's taking silver with it, although it didn't need much help......... ( ugh ) ...

And how great is it to sleep in and wake to the US$ ( toilet paper?!?? ) soaring against other currencies. It will break new highs Donald....I'm counting on it ( cha-ching! ) . And so is more than half of the world...where else to put your money?? eh, KIWI?? go usa...ohmy...damn yankee arrogant bastards..........what would Bondaracious do?

away...to observe the slaughter

coveredingreenbackstoday

hey TAR-BABY. Does that mean you are a black man/woman?? or an Oil barron?? I am slow at times.......pray tell, baby.

a point of confusion......why is it that everytime gold dets KICKED HARD someone, invariably, comes on kitco and says, "looks like this will be a great buying opportunity"..........typical. Oh well...dry powder all wet.

What is red line vs blue line. I have looked at the transitions and they appear interesting, just don't know what it means. TIA.

For about 18 months we have heard about the prospects of Flag Resources here and on the other Kitco channel. Well the drilling starts this week. A 2000 foot surface showing of gold and a large base metal/nickel anomaly near Sudbury --the home of INCO and Falconbridge. Make or break time.
http://www.newswire.ca/releases/January1998/05/c0280.html

I understand that in a deflationary cycle it is better to hold cash, as it becomes more valuable. The question is, with everyone viewing gold now, not as true money but merely "just another commodity", won't the POG go down as well? ( *Further* down that is, even without the artificial pressures applied against it )

Re: Y2K info -- I have been doing a bit of cross-posting between kitco and the comp.software.year-2000 newsgroup. The cross-pollenation seems to be strengthening the gene pools of both. In the newsgroup, one of the current topics is how you would allocate your investments in 1999 if you knew that the IRS would fall apart as a result of Y2K. Any thoughts?

Swing chart updated.
This chart looks more bullish than in April.
Momentum still charging up the hill.

Bull trap or bear's folly.
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/swiller1.gif

EB is it a bear trap or bull's folly for your precious?
I thought you'd be wearing that skirt for a sun-shade for this tumble.
( :o}}}}}}}}}}}}}}]

CNBC TV financial celebrity and national investment newsletter analyst shares his considered opinions about all the markets with us... his first rays of 1998 wisdom:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/inger010198.html

article in todays WSJ on page A16 re MORE money for Korea. The Korean team "will meet over lunch today with bankers at J.P. Morgan ".
Can anyone please post the electronic version of the story ? By the way,
the new currency of Avalonia will be called LGPops, that is Little Green
Pieces of Paper ( thanks to Earl's 00.43 of 1/4 for thar one ! ) .

Strictly speaking in/de-flation is still a debated topic. I suppose like most, we'll know it when we see it. Unfortunately creeping inflation will kill your buying power just as surely as a sudden one.

Deflation, I think, hasn't been a problem for SOOOOO long that no one really understands it. Its mostly seen in economic depressions. Job loses, contraction in demand. Real decreases in GDP in relation to % population increases. Liquidity crisis; where credit worthiness is dropping and people do not qualify to borrow ( IG - bankrupcy ) .

I think it was discussed here that in the situation where a $$ investment in PM's drops in value because of wide spread deflation, but doesn't drop as much as say a bond or equity position, then PM's actually yeild a true preservation of wealth: You can claim a "loss" on their sale, the resultant $$ are worth more to a hungery seller of products and services. Of course cash is king as SDRer pointed out. Corollary: debt is poison.

titled "Can US weather Asia's storm ?". Can anyone help with posting electronically ? It's a review by a dozen prominent economists and businesspeople Steve Forbes and James Grant.

Did somebody say lately that Soros was in S.Korea?!!!

Any thoughts on Free St Con Gold Mines Ltd ( NASDAQ:FSCNY ) ? Did you note this one at one time ( 18% dividend ) . I can get the chart, but not any historical data on Dividend distributions, etc. Do you have a URL for this Co?? It looks interesting to me. TIA.

I was waiting for the pattern. It was looking like it could go higher for a moment and then the family started piling in for the holidays so I put my charts down...and that was all it took. And then I thought we would have a better fight outta those bulls to show me a nice pattern. I read too much kitco. I should know better. I do see this though.....the bottom is NOT in. With all due respect to APH we will see 'historically' lower prices for gold. Optimism is good but charts don't lie.....eventually. The charts tell me ONE direction...and I think the basement floor has opened up once more.

away...to enjoy the day off with a Bond flick

007gettinthechicks

In you remail to me, you said that "the situation will need to become
critical before gold's discipline will be accepted ". What do you think that might be; a domestic scandal, more Asia problems, a war somewhere ?

I'm still hurtin over that mail. I was NUMB all day searching the web for news. I should have known........an OLD man for two YOUNG stars.......hook......line.......................sunk........... ( glub,glub ) ......the Cape is turning you evil.

away...to break a mirror in your name

adJosstoTed

and then they fall to the sixers...... ( ugh ) .

for Allan

Freegold is on the spreadsheet. It has a lot of flexibily

in that it can cut production a little and reduce costs

a lot. I like others better - also I believe it will

be absorbed into vaal reefs as part of the anglo

super company - It should pay about a $0.50 dividend.

is keeping mental focus on the Survival Paradigm. Taint easy; the intriguing intellectual distractions are multitudinous! And the IRS, for every American,must be at the top of the list.

At this site, we just hunkered down: the plethora of Executive Orders, to cite one example--and our Diogenes of the News, AKA Donald posted a few stellar hits-- makes assuming the rules of the game will hold steady a VERY dangerous course of action. So, here at any rate, we are not looking at the IRS to be a go or no-go...for storage of value, weve diversified into a small core of what were willing to call hard currencies ( the major one of which is gold ) and then work our speculative portfolio...weve worked hard to take government actions ( or possible actions ) out of that part of our holdings which must be deemed storage of value. And believe me, it has been a trial in the medieval sense of the word!

and its looking a lot like the early 80's. Nobody wanted those nasty old 30 yr t's that only yielded 14%. Inflation was going to go to the sky. Nobody wanted stocks. looks very familiar when you're standing on your head. I also noticed Greenspan is looking a lot like an up side down Volker. I think I'll frame Donald's Dow/Gold chart and put it on the wall ( upside down of course ) .

this year...will 'critical' be defined by banks? business? labor? governments? all of whom have REAL pain...
Governments may have very much less input than we might think...
So, we need to ascertain who got invited THIS year...who is giving
the opening speech would be interesting...and all those intimate
little meetings...

And who from the G-30 will be there to 'make our case'?

Have you got any financials on Flag? Mainly number of shares out and price. Thanx chas

Much has been made of the downward plunge in gold prices during 1996 and 1997. Monetary officials as well as government officials around the world have advertised the fact and led the public at large to believe that this drop is an indication that fiat
megabyte money is "King of the Hill", that all is well with our
monetary system, and that we will all live happily ever after. It is the author's hope that THIS PAPER HAS DISPELLED THIS MYTH in the mind's of the people who read it.

Analyst Miller sees regent years IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE in paper assets ( stocks & bonds ) as a new chapter for the classic work Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. He, like George Bernard Shaw, votes for GOLD:

"If you have to choose between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability and intelligence of the members of the government. And with due respect to these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold."

The Summary includes an extensive SUGGESTED READING LIST, his recommended Internet Gold Links, and other pertinent information sources:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/jmiller123197.html

I can't access Kitco via the regular site, but I can through the mirror site. Are all of you doing the same? Can someone post current PM spot prices? Thx.

the aforementioned groups--banks, business, labor, government--reach a fear-state such that the discipline of a global gold-backed currency, while still not welcomed will be embraced to remove their collective feet from the fire.
( IMHO )

Gold is Torquemada, and the worlds financial chaos is the Inquistion; those whose faith in paper is being questioned, will not be converted without considerable pain.

Simplistic, but probable...

chas: I think you can find waht you want here:
http://www.flagresources.com/

Is it just me, or does a .43 cent drop in Silver ( according to Kitco price updates ) , seem to be a gross contradiction with the $5.92 spot price? Anyone know the REAL price of Silver on this gloomy Gold day?

Vronsky: Hope you are right about the CBs having to buy a lot of the yellow to cover defaulted gold loans. But I'm not holding my breath.

A few highlights from a TRUE market analyst, Bob Brinker...from yesterday's nationwide syndicated radio show;


* We may have a "buy" opportunity in Equities if we reach levels equal to October lows.

* Investors need to be realistic and stop expecting huge returns from the market. 10% to 11% is historical. Past 4 years returns represent an extraordinary ( and unsustainable ) confluence of positive economic circumstances.

* Stocks are still the place to be in the long run. S&P gained more than 30% in 1997.

* Gold and Gold funds have been an excpetionally dismal investment, Midas lost 62% in 1997 as the worst mutual funds loss of the year, while S&P index, which represents 70% of the market, rose 30+ percent.

* Gold investments can only be characterized as "disastrous" for anyone who has listened to the GoldBugs of recent times, and such investors will likely NEVER recover from their losses, and their lost profits from failing to capitolize on the greatest bull market in history, regardless of future market direction in Equities, or Gold.

Sharefin: I can read your swing chart, so you would think I could send graphics files. Can't send either on Kitco or on E-mail.

My impression is that your swing chart indicates a bullish pattern, not bearish. Since our AG doesn't dare raise interest rates, he will probably try to "talk down" the market if it rallies. My guess is that he won't let it go much above the 1997 high.

I sold most of my gold stocks today for a 5% profit -- I think the best way is to handle gold/gold stocks as if they are still in a long-term bear market. Hence -- buy on dips and sell on short-intermediate term rallies. Gold/gold stocks sure performed poorly during the silver rally, supporting the premise of a continued bear market in gold.

Haven't decided what to do with the silver stocks -- stellar so far. Think the silver short squeeeze if over?

As of 1:45pm 5.93 -- down 4 cents.

CNNFN shows: Gold down 6.00 at 283.40 Silver down .035 at 5.92 and Platinum down 4.00 at 364

SWC is UP above 17
SSC is hanging tough between 15/16 and 1

Query:...where will XAU likely be, if ( note IF ) gold goes to 250???

Too much conspiracy talk on this thread. The gold bear primarily reflects the ongoing deflationary trend in the world and the super bull in the U.S. dollar. CB selling, CB lending, the financial weakness of many gold miners, and speculative short selling have made a bad situation worse, but these are not the fundamental cause of gold's problems.

A sustained gold bull simply cannot get underway until the greenback's surge is history and investors perceive that governments and central banks will do whatever is necessary to reflate the global economy. But still believe we are in the early stages of a base building period that will in time set the stage for a new SECULAR gold bull.

When you are feeling blue just that the gold chart and hold it upside down while standing in front of a mirror. Shouldn't stand on your head at your age. My prediction for today is for a Dow close down 100 points. If it doesn't come true I will never make another prediction. Down 16.44 now.

I've been interested in the Gold price predictions we saw here over the holiday break, especially the prediction of potential $8,000 Gold in 1998. I have finally had a revelation which explains why certain ( nameless ) analysts call for potential Gold prices of $8,000/Oz. in 1998.

$8,000 Gold is approximately the amount it would take for GoldBugs of the past 15 years or so, to make up for their lost Equities market potential gains ( since most don't believe in "paper" or the economy ) AND their horrendous losses in Gold and/or Gold shares. NOW I understand where the number $8,000 came from.

Talk about a bubble! This is the "hype bubble" of bullish Gold talk.As each year goes by, and the Goldbug analysts are proven totally wrong once again, it takes more and more "hype" to keep the GoldBug illusion alive. The illusion that they will somehow profit, and be vindicated for their anti paper beliefs when the big Equities "Bear", Gold "Bull" begins.

Never mind that when and if a turnaround occurs they'll have about 5% of their ammo left to profit from, that they might have had, if they'd listened to the "bullish" equity analysts of 1980 and beyond. That $8000 Gold will make up for everything! ESPECIALLY when stocks crash to 50% or less of their former glorious highs!

Yep, $8,000 Gold in 1998 is just about right. That's what it would take for Goldbugs to play "catch up" realtive to Equity investors....now I understand...

Maybe next New Year at this time, when Gold stands at $250/Oz. we'll see predictions of $12,000 Gold possible in 1999!! And a DOW crash to 3% of it's former value!

The price of gold in US$ has followed the steep decline in the currency of the average gold buyer. At the current level of the currencies, gold should be around $275, and could easily decline to $265. Another bad day in the currencies, and gold will likely break the old lows without slowing down.

You're making a lot of sense. Best hope for Gold, is evival of inflation, not deflationary collapse.

Thanks for Silver update. Seems it's showing tremendous strength once again, in the face of Gold's freefall.

Thanx. I surveyed quickly. Thry're in the right place. Do you know enough about them to think they can hold on? It looks like you're right-- make or break.

Monday January 5, 1:53 pm Eastern Time

US 1998 growth, CPI both at 2.5 pct--Fed's Guynn

NEW YORK, Jan 5 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Jack Guynn on Monday forecast that U.S. Gross Domestic
Product ( GDP ) growth will slow down to about 2.5 percent in 1998 while the Consumer Price Index should continue to edge up at
also around 2.5 percent.

``I expect 1998 to be another good year, if not the benchmark that 1997 was,'' Guynn told the Rotary Club in Atlanta in a speech that
was also available in New York.

``I look for GDP ... around 2.50 percent on an annual average basis,'' Guynn said. ``Inflation should remain... likely around 2.50
percent.''

Guynn tied the positive inflation outlook to two main factors as ``cheaper Asian imports provide more competition for U.S. goods and
monetary policy keeps a lid on overall prices.''

Commenting on U.S. exports, Guynn expected that ``a stronger dollar and weaker Asian economies will exacerbate the U.S. trade
deficit in 1998.''

The Atlanta Fed president also forecast that U.S. exports would grow ``by at least 8.0 percent'' next year. He said the trade deficit
would reflect even faster import growth.

``I'm not worried that we'll catch the Asian flu here in the United States,'' Guynn stressed.

Guynn also pointed out that U.S. exports account for only 11.0 percent of U.S. GDP of which only 13 percent go to Hong Kong,
South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore.

``This amounts to just over 1.0 percent of the U.S. GDP,'' Guynn noted.

Guynn also noted that the financial crisis affecting a number of East Asian nations stemmed in part from centralized policies
conducted by the governments of those nations, such as ``currency manipulation.''

Turning to Japan, Guynn described Japan's way of dealing with its problems as ``unsustainable'' until recently, keeping ``banks and
brokerage houses afloat in the hopes that an expanding economy and recovering asset prices would finally bail them out.''

``It didn't happen,'' Guynn noted, adding he was ``encouraged that in rcent months, Japan has finally allowed those financial
institutions to close.''

Guynn's rosy 1998 economic forecast included a U.S. unemployment rate probably averaging ``about 4.5 percent.''

As a result, Guynn said ``my major concern for business ... is tight labor markets'' that present U.S. companies with the challenge of
finding skilled workers.

``However, tight labor markets in the absence of inflation are a good thing,'' he added.

The Atlanta Fed also expected business investments to ``remain healthy'' in 1998 while ``government spending... will actually see a
contraction at the Federal level and only a very moderate increase at the state and local level.''

Guynn remained optimistic about consumer spending, although it should grow ``at a more moderate clip'' in part because ``the major
caveat ... is debt which remains very high relative to income.''

Just gained consciousness. This is all too predictable to be true! the run into bonds looks like Volker-world in reverse.

I've been feeling down, I can't even describe
How miserable I feel being alive
I'm short 100, 000 ounces of silver and twice as much gold
I must have sh__ for brains, I must be an absolute dolt
So I went to my favorite whorehouse to get some cheer
I find it lifts the spirits more than beer
I found myself a hooker beyond compare
She had a kick-ass figure and golden hair
We bonked and bonked until we were both sore
I've never met such an insatiable whore
I pulled out my wallet and offered her my whole wad
If she'd let me spend the night playing with her hot bod
Scowling at my paper money, she'd have none of that
"Give me gold or silver" if you want another crack at bat
So I called up my friends at the ol' CB's
"Guys, I need some gold real fast, if you please
I've got me a whore who's not into American bucks
She wants precious metals or I don't get no F__ks"
They hooted and hollered at my sad position
A horny guy loaded with dollars not getting coition
"Listen, Shorty, we've already lent most of our ore
So much we just can't lend anymore
You see, there's a shortage developing across the land
So you better reacquaint yourself with your left hand!!!"

Isn't it a little ununsual to see Dow Utilities DOWN 3.84 ( 1.34% ) when the bonds are UP a point and a half? This looks very bad for stocks! Not that it's helping the PM's or PM stocks ( yeeech! )

Please, DO keep up your desperate support for a paper market that is distributing worthless certs to suckers - I understand that you need to get your own cash out of the market before it goes down. The "ride" is over, and your continued venal support is immoral.

Will we see an LGB Appology posted here when the Dow slump/crash has consumed the future & dreams of millions, as the respective South East Asian market crashes have consumer those of the Thai, Malay, Indonesian, Philipine and Japanese? Or are they merely sub-men, worthy of their fate, not being majik American financial uber-mensh?

Why most Nobel Prize economists are quacks
by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.

There are three most essential ``mechanisms'' of the resulting, worldwide financial bubble: 1 ) The numerically largest factor involved is the magnitude of the ``notional'' ( fictitious ) capital values, which are treated as the equivalent of money-capital for the purposes of the derivatives form of futures speculation; 2 ) the second largest factor is the flow of monetary stimulus into the maelstrom of financial speculation, in derivatives and related categories; 3 ) the speculative bubble's root-dependency upon an income-stream of real wealth taken out of real consumption and the production cycle. To determine why and how a bubble will pop, and to estimate when it will probably pop, one must focus upon the function of these combined, interacting three
mechanisms.

http://www.larouchepub.com/Quacks.html

I emailed for some pertinent geological and mineralogical details and a couple of "loaded" questions. If I hear, I'' let you know.

chas: Great. I'm sure you will hear back. But since the Pres is heading to the drill sites on Wed --according to latest reports-- I'm not sure when you will get a response soon. You can look up previous news releases for many details here
http://www.newswire.ca/

While not all Nobel economists are worth their weigtht in gold, I would take the advice of any of them over a quack like LaRouche who if he isn't in jail, which I believe he is, should be locked up in a soft padded cell.

You are a much better poet than market analyst....

PH IN LA, NEWTRON..

IMHO, the drop in the gold price coincides directly with the rise in the dollar in the last three days, back to Friday, when the bond rate closed at 5.85%. I suspected then that gold was in for a bad day today, but took no action, much to my regret. However, it seems to me that the announcement that the Korean debt problem is owed primarily to Japan and Europe redirected the flow of scared money into dollars ( instead of Europe or Japan ) , starting on Friday. If so, this gold dip will be short lived unless more cash flows into US treasuries lowering the bond rate, which is certainly possible. At this moment, gold is setting a new seventeen year spot low near 282+. The future is exceedingly difficult to judge under these conditions, but if all were well ( gold dropping for sure ) , the Dow would be going up, and it isn't.

The drop in the price of gold is due to no small part to the sharp rise in the value of the dollar in asian countries where gold has a higher demand. The dollar rise means that the gold price in won, ringgat, rupiah and all the other currencies has shot off the charts. When the price of anything goes up, the quantity demanded falls. And thats precisely what is happening.

There is also an income effect at work here as well. When the incomes of those who buy gold drop, the quantity of gold they buy also drops. The crisis in asia, far from destabilizing the dollar and the US economy has done exactly that to gold.

Finally, the drop in the price of gold will further empower those younger managers and analysts within central banks around the world to unload the stuff. What the financial crisis in asia may bring us is an acceleration in the process to de-monetarize gold. What an irony....

All Work and No Pay
PAUL A. HEIN, M.D.

Forward
The brief era of legal-tender, fiat paper currency is rapidly drawing to its predictably sorry close, propelled by the increasing instability of the system of limitless central-bank credit expansion towards a world-wide financial, economic,social, and political catastrophe of historically unprecedented magnitude. That this catastrophe is unavoidable is beyond doubt. But that its magnitude need not be
equally severe in every industrialized nation--and particularly in the United States--is also unquestionable. For appropriate steps, taken in time, can mitigate the hardships that the collapse of the fiat-currency bubble will impose upon this country; and can provide the foundation for re-building America's ( and eventually the world's ) economy on the basis of sound monetary principles.

That these steps can be taken is not open to debate. Nothing prevents the government of the United States from acknowledging that Federal Reserve notes constitute only the irredeemable, rapidly depreciating paper "promises" of a private banking-cartel unconstitutionally manipulating the nation's monetary system.

http://www.fame.org/research/library/pah-001.htm

I hate to be redundant Spud, but even a stock market crash would bring no apologies from this quarter. Such a crash would not be severe enough to wipe out the enormous gains that savers have made, particularly those who have diversified and purchased homes, and other items if intrinsic value.

Given our current economic strength, I can't imagine a scenario that could possibly penalize paper investors relative to the GoldBugs of the past few years. Such a probability in our lifetimes is, IMNHO, about the same as being hit by an Asteroid.

On the other hand, had we stayed with the good old intrinisc value "Gold STandard" of pre 1938, I'm confident that we, and the rest of the world, would have been able to continue enjoying the poverty, misery, starvation, and uncontrollable boom/bust cycles...that dictated the populace daily lives prior to the prosperous later hald of this century.

"Worthless" paper illusions? Tell it to the Acura dealer where I paid cash for my current vehicle with "paper profits" made during the last few years. Or even more ironically, tell it to the Coin and precious metals dealers where I've purchased my large holdings of SIlver over the past year using my "worthless" paper dollars made from "worthless" equity profits!

Doublethink SPud. That's what it takes to continue to believe that GoldBugs have been anything but deluded.

Fiat currency is not backed by "nothing" as so many on Vronskys site so erroneously state. It is INDEED backed by something, my cynical friend. It's backed by the strongest nation, the strongest economy, and the strongest system of democracy on earth, AND backed by your fellow man, the worker next door, the average football watching Joe. Have a little more faith in your fellow, given half a chance with a credit based boost, he'll produce like mad! Making a better world for us all.....

All Work and No Pay
PAUL A. HEIN, M.D.

Forward
The brief era of legal-tender, fiat paper currency is rapidly drawing to its predictably sorry close, propelled by the increasing instability of the system of limitless central-bank credit expansion towards a world-wide financial, economic,social, and political catastrophe of historically unprecedented magnitude. That this catastrophe is unavoidable is beyond doubt. But that its magnitude need not be
equally severe in every industrialized nation--and particularly in the United States--is also unquestionable. For appropriate steps, taken in time, can mitigate the hardships that the collapse of the fiat-currency bubble will impose upon this country; and can provide the foundation for re-building America's ( and eventually the world's ) economy on the basis of sound monetary principles.

That these steps can be taken is not open to debate. Nothing prevents the government of the United States from acknowledging that Federal Reserve notes constitute only the irredeemable, rapidly depreciating paper "promises" of a private banking-cartel unconstitutionally manipulating the nation's monetary system.

http://www.fame.org/research/library/pah-001.htm

i am in generaL agreement with your post, but deflation is when cpi and ppi are lower year-over-year for at least one quarter. haven't seen that since a brief spell in the 1950's. what WE have is disinflation or weaker inflation. in deflation ( early on ) we would see rocketing interest rates and rising gold. well, in a free market we would....

You know, I've almost gotten to the point where I welcome dips
like today's $7.20 drop in gold so that when I have accumulated
enough cash, I can load up on some cheap hard money to see me
into the 21st century. I just hope my mining stock shares don't
go to $0.00 in the process. I just wish now that I had bought
some platinum at $340 cause I don't think it will go that low
again. Still think good quality firearms will always be a good
investment if you take care of them; can you think of better
company during Armaggedon than an M16 with 10 30-rd clips, a sack
of gold and silver,a Bible, and a caseload of MREs? Not me, Bubba.

dollar backed by lots of faith and lots of credit. hard to say which is the most important right now. i am leaning toward faith, but they are pumping out the credit almost as fast.

It's the quoting of Larouche, Astrologer "analysts", and other "experts" like the one calling for $8,000 Gold as a 1998 possibility, that so thoroughly discredits "GoldBug" thought.

This is the very reason that GoldBugs are held in such disdain as a "fringe" whacko element. If they could get on with some objective and honest analysis, look at all market factors, eschew the extreme and "National Enquirer" type views as being central to their "faith", then maybe the world at large might give a listen.

As long as Jewish banker conspiracy theorists are allowed a forum and a listen by "GoldBugs". then they will continue to be disrespected by those who know better.

( PS, Bigfoot lives, UFO's stole my car, and Homeopathic rememdies are being held off the market by the AMA )

btw, professor vronsky has a wide spectrum of gold rants at his site including my own
which may not be so awfully distant from your own: http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/Aurophile123197.html

btw, professor vronsky has a wide spectrum of gold rants at his site including my own

which may not be so awfully distant from your own: http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/Aurophile123197.html

sorry about that doubler

I once knew a gal named Karlito
Who studied Macro and Micro economics at the Paris Lido
She spoke of deflation
And missed the imminent stagflation
Now she's a stripper again without equal

Yes Auro, I agree there is a lot of interesting editorial and analyst comment there, I read some 45 articles on his site during the "break".

However, I notice that editorial "link" invites "opposing view" pieces, yet I see not a single piece out of the 45 which articulates a view of economics as they impact PM's...such as Karlito's excellent posts.

Is it that diversity of views are NOT really welcome, or is it that no one bothers ending any to Vronsky for publication? I for one would love to see more balance at "Gold Eagle. and less whacko fringe stuff, and "fiat cuurency" posts ( of which we now must have seen hundreds..all saying the same thing )

LGB: Better start scanning the heavens. That asteroid will be arriving soon and will have Year 2000 emblazoned across it.

fundaMETAList

THE GOLD-EAGLE monthly spotlight for insightful market commentary and analysis BEAMS AGAIN on John Kutyn for his analysis FINANCIAL COLLAPSE: THE DEATH SPIRAL. With exceptionally clear vision he cuts to the chase in the WHY of Korean Banking and Corporation failures. Further he demonstrates how the Domino Effect will cause the teetering Japanese and Chinese Banking Systems to fall.

To review this insightful and prophetic treatise of the Asian Domino Effect and its inevitably dire consequences, go the following Internet location, and once there CLICK on John Kutyns DECEMBER plaque:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/awards/spotlight.html

There was a young poet named Farfel,
Bought Pegasus shares a whole car full,
With Gold's huge price decline,
PGU closed their mine,
Farfel's shares will soon make him quite sorrowful

fiat currency is not backed by nothing ... it is backed by the debt-based slavery of hundred of millions of humans.

I chose not to be a slave-owner by virute of honest, gold-back money.

amen.....

In almost twenty years of following various markets, I have found one fact to be true: When the experts are certain that a market is going in one direction, it will go the other way very soon. ( Did you see the posting earlier today... no one wanted 14% bonds in the early 1980s!! ) Most of these folks that are telling us to invest in stocks were in school during October 1987, and have never been through a down market. Therefore, based on their experience, the price of stocks only goes up!

Theres an old story about Mr. Rockefeller in the late 1920s. When his shoe-shine fellow started asking his opinion on particular stocks, Rockefeller knew that the market was over-sold, and it was time to get out. I think of this story every time I see an ad for Investment Services or Mutual Funds in places such as television, home decorating or cooking magazines.

In the past year, I have worked with four of the largest companies in the USA to assess their plans for resolving Year 2000 computer and systems problems. The best plan had identified perhaps 10% of their problems. The next 24 months should be very interesting!!!

You choose to only use gold backed currency? Wow, what planet is that where they still use it? maybe this UFO / alien thing has something to it after all.....

For Karlita and Lbg -

I really think the two of you make the cutest

couple. Its wonderful when two people FIND each

other.

the absence of anti-gold posts reflects the fact that most analysts and economists couldn't be bothered to consider gold as possibly less than dead. this was true also in 1970 and 1976 when similar disdain and occasional dicussions of gold's irrelevance abounded. contrary opinion is a tough call and one can't bank it, but only kooks and visionaries and geniuses ( hard to tell them apart often...;- ) are amongst the position takers when relative strength ( and prices ) are at extremes.

Loved your post, FundaMETAList. LGB has as much as admitted
that he is loading up on silver at least and some platinum
eagles and probably gold at these prices. He gets his jollies
from rubbing it in the noses of those of us like me who have
believed in gold and silver since the early eighties and have
paid dearly for it. He is like Clinton; mean, manipulative,
but definitely not stupid. Clinton has a large portion of his
personal portfolio, so I've been told, in PMs. For his sake,
I hope his "ass don't be void" by the asteroid. Time will tell
when and if the stock market bubble bursts; my money is on the
scenario that the bubble is just looking for a big prick
( can you guess who I think that is? ) GOD, GUNS, GOLD, GRAINS,
AND GREENS ARE WHAT WE NEED TO SURVIVE.

EB:'The trade' must of hit a snag but they ( the NYC pundits ) say it's a 'done-deal' so it should show up in tomorrow's papers...EB:Do you think this is a great 'buyin opportunity'???~~~~~go team gold!!

i have this recurring dream in which a team of archaeologists in the year 4000 cracks open the vaults of the BOJ under a pile of rubble where tokyo used to be. these are New Order archaeologists, mind you, who may keep what they find. The have a couple of ancient language linguists along who can read japanese and english. they have come prepared to cart away ( actually levitate, since this is the year 4000 ) the gold and other precious loot. to their incomprehensible disgust they find only an old tattered ledger with book entry notations that they "own" $300 billion of US Tbonds. "Jeez Louise" say they. "We knew they were daft, but a vault full of nothing but a book saying they own paper???????"

"South Koreans lined up on Monday after the government encouraged them to turn over their gold jewelry and other bullion in a campaign to raise cash for the troubled country. The gold will be refined and then exported to raise money."

Monday January 5, 3:13 pm Eastern Time

Toronto golds drop 5 pct on supply/deflation fears

TORONTO, Jan 5 ( Reuters ) - Fears of a flood of bullion from South Korea, and comments about deflation by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan battered the Toronto Stock Exchange's already fragile gold sector on Monday.

Toronto's influential gold and precious minerals sector dropped 343.90 points or 5.33 percent to 6113.52 in midday trading.

The drop followed a 43.6 percent decline for the sector in 1997.

Heavyweights such as Barrick Gold Corp. ( NYSE:ABX - news; Toronto:ABX.TO - news ) and Placer Dome Inc. ( NYSE:PDG - news; Toronto:PDG.TO - news ) were hit hard. Barrick slipped C$1.65 or 6.1 percent to C$25.40, while Placer dropped C$1.30 or almost 7.1 percent to C$17.10 in Toronto.

On the New York Stock Exchange, Barrick fell $1.12 to $17.75 and Placer was off 75 cents to $12.

South Koreans lined up on Monday after the government encouraged them to turn over their gold jewelry and other bullion in a campaign to raise cash for the troubled country. The gold will be refined and then exported to raise money.

``The reports that South Koreans have been requested to tender their personal gold are again getting to the gold sector,'' said John Ing, president of brokerage Maison Placements Canada.

Ing said that with South Koreans' gold holdings estimated at more than 2,700 tonnes worth almost $30 billion, there was fear the move could lead to an oversupply in world markets.

Weekend comments by Greenspan also weighed heavily on the gold sector, Pacific International Securities analyst Wendell Zerb said.

Greenspan raised concerns among investors when he said that rapid asset price declines could have a negative effect on the economy.

Zerb said that bullion could drop further to new lows.

The price of gold for February delivery on the COMEX Division of the New York Mercantile Exchange was down $6.10 to $283.30 at midday.

Hyprocrite General? Not at all. I'm not wedded to some fanatical point of view re Equities OR PM's. I buy, sell and trade based on market fundamentals. Which will always be shifting and changing, much as Goldbugs wish and long for them "Good ole days" of nice warm secure metals to keep themselves comfy at night.

I bought equities years ago beased on my belief in historic performance, bargain prices for stocks, and our strong economy. Fundamentals. I sold out of equities when valuations reached record levels. Fundamentals...I'll buy back in when they dip sufficiently. Fundamentals.
I bought Silver this last summer because of a looming shortage and rock bottom bargain prices. Fundamentals. I'll sell it when it reaches $8.00 or $9.00/Oz. and the shiny stuff starts coming out of the woodwork.

The nice thing about being a realist, is you don't have to be wedded to some fringe, cult, point of view. Results are what matter. We see the abject failure of socialism worldwide and realize it's discredited no matter how "nice" the theory sounded. We see the most prosperous times in human history based partially on current economic policy re money supply managment, fiat or no. It works.....

Disneyland...If Karlito and I are having an affair, than the whacko fringe, cult member, GoldBug diehards, are having mass, group sex, mutual masterbat**n here on a daily basis!

SEOUL, South Korea ( Reuters ) - Thousands of South Koreans
swarmed failed merchant banks Monday to withdraw deposits, while
others lined up to sell gold jewelry to help the country raise
dollars.
But the stock market rose after comments by U.S. financier
George Soros that he might invest in South Korea provided a
much-needed psychological boost.
Soros said he would send a team of experts to Seoul by the
end of the month.
President-elect Kim Dae-jung in a new year's address to his
party also said Monday he would seek immediate passage of laws
easing restrictions on layoffs to lure back foreign investors.
South Koreans descended by the thousands on 14 merchant
banks whose operations had been suspended since December because
of serious financial problems. Monday was the first day they
were allowed to withdraw their deposits.
``I am glad to get my money back,'' said Kim Dal-young, a
62-year-old former government employee who came to Central
Banking Corp in central Seoul to retrieve his $41,300 retirement
fund. ``I put my money there because I heard it was the best
merchant bank. I never imagined it would close down.''
Thousands of depositors ignored the pleas of merchant bank
employees to leave their money in the troubled institutions.
The Finance Ministry is reviewing the 14 banks' plans for
restructuring before deciding their fate next month, but most
are expected to face liquidation.
Not far away, citizens lined up in more orderly fashion to
hand over gold jewelry and knick-knacks in a nationwide campaign
to collect gold for export to raise much needed U.S. dollars.
``I believe it will help our country's economy,'' said Kang
Seong-soon, a 29-year-old Seoul housewife, who sold gold rings,
bracelets and necklaces.
By the end of the day, the gold collected was worth about
$33 million.
People participating in the campaign would be paid in local
currency after the gold was refined and exported.
-=-=-

LGB: Why don't you contact the US Federal Reserve, and tell them its ok to sell all our gold in Fort Knox -- since it's worthless anyway. I'll be ready to buy at these prices. Also, I don't recall anyone on Kitco predicting $8000gold or even $3000 gold in 1998 or 1999. Why don't you tell us who it was?

By the way, the long term cycles suggest gold in the $2000 range about the time we baby boomers retire and Social security goes belly up. That would be about 2010-2015.

There's a fella on the Kitco forum, name of LGB
Long Gold Baby as he's known to me
Whenever gold's price comes down
He and his gal Karlito come around
Sure, today they're a gloatin'
But tomorrow they'll be a borrowin'
That's 'coz they follow the herd
When will they ever learn?
So long as the U.S. dollar is strong
Their lives can't go wrong
But a big crack in the Dow
Will turn the Buck to a sow
Bonds are no safety haven
When the dollar is a cavin'
Global, competitive interest rate hikes
They're gonna make bondholders scream, "Yikes!!"
So keep on believing in your New Paradigm
Just remember that events'll spin on a dime!!!

Paper money has had the effect in your state that it will ever have, to ruin commerce, oppress the honest, and open the door to every species of fraud and injustice. George Washington, in letter to J. Bowen, Rhode Island, Jan 9, 1787...courtesy of Paul A. Hein, M.D.

A commonsensical man, with an acute case of the smarts , looking at the world beyond his own discipline. READ. Print it out.

http://www.fame.org/research/library/pah-001.htm

Go 'Niners' and 'Broncos'~~~~~Bart: Fix the damn site---I'm havin a hard time postin AGAIN ( and I got nothin ta say and no charts ta share )

Oh LGB - you are SO cute and SMART too. But that Karlita - she's

nothing but a pretty face.

General: I think you have LGB pegged pretty well.

I read your earlier post. When I got to "can you think of better
company during Armageddon" the thought of my wife passed through my head but I'll have all the others you mentioned close at hand too, assuming, that is, I can cough up an M16 ( wow! ) .

One place I find my firearms lacking is in hand weapons. I was thinking about a Glock 26. It's small size makes it an easy conceal carry. Do you have any opinion on that particular weapon and whether I should get .45 ACP or 9 mm. I think you get one more shot with the 9mm but more stopping power with the .45. Also, what would you recommend for a full size hand semi-auto. I apologize in advance if I've mixed up any gun related facts as my knowledge on the subject is weak from years of neglect.

And I realize that this board is not Guns R Us. If the General is interested in conversing I'll move to e-mail after a couple of exchanges. I just thought it would be nice to suggest to LGB a weapon he could use to defend himself with as the Y2K asteroid plunges towards him. It will be full of Y2K silver tipped bullets. I haven't seen any on the market yet but I hear everyone talking about the dang things!

fundaMETAList

Oh LGB - you all make such a contribution - where would we be

without you, sweetie ??

PUETZ is of course the analyst who stated that $8,000 Gold was within the realm of possibility ( along with $100 Silver ) in 1998. You know, that vaunted, respected, credentialed, "quoted in Barrons", Guru whom Kitcoites so respect for his expertise and market call accuacy.

As to the gold in Ft. Knox, I'm all for leaving it right where it is as the world's biggest stockpile of CB Gold. Not as a link to the currency, but a hedge against future hard times, or any coming attack on The U.S. viability as an economic power with assets to back it's might.

The economy and the dollar however, have strength based on the health and strength of the U.S. business sector, economic policies, and worker productivity. This strength has zip to do with the Gold in Ft, Knox.

You guys' get that ranch site review finished for your survivalist cult yet? Buy them guns boys!!... ( and they say karlito and I have somethin goin!..hehehe )

Lot's o' folks here wanna join and be part of the next "Heaven's Gate" I'll bet.

Them conspiracy Goviement, reveno'er dudes is all around us with them black choppers tryin to git are rites & freedums away from us boyz. Head for dem hills with dem guns & Gold..yeah

Your post on being a realist. I hope I'm not presuming, but your post sounded familiar to me. I realized that it sounded like me years ago. For what it might be worth to you, I thought I had learned about INVESTING back in the early 50's. My mentor was an old salty grain trader ( retired at the time ) who was a master risk taker, although by his admission had been tapped out 3 different times. Anyway, it wasn't until many years later that I realized two things. First, I didn't know the first thing about investment, and second, I always traded with money I didn't really value, ie, money I didn't really feel I had earned.

It was only after I situated my life so that I valued what I had to offer to others and therefore was proud of the money I received that I took investing seriously. That is, I learned to buy things I valued at least as much as I valued the labor that earned it.

I suspect there are many on this site who have learned this lesson and for whom buying things only on the speculative notion that they can sell them to a greater fool is an anathema. However, I don't think it is evil or reprehensible. I just don't care to do it anymore.

In the meantime, I benefit from hearing your views on where things are going, even if I sometimes am a little dismayed by your contentiousness. But then, it takes two to tango.

Gold at 281.85. Is this a new low?

John, John! Do me next. Please John. Ohhhhh Johnnnnnn! That was good.

And now, after a refresing lunch hour, back to slaying dragons.

General, I'll look for a response from you later this evening. Thanks in advance if you can help out.

fundatMETAList

LGB: Spell my name right! It's fundaMETAList. Otherwise I'll start referring to you as Little Green Booger!

fundaMETAList

The broad based U.S. money supply is growing at about a 10.5% annual clip. This means that U.S. final demand is growing at about the same
pace. The rest of the world is in either recession, deflation or stagnation. Our current account deficit is presently $160 billion a year and our net foreign debt just passed $1 trillion. The consensus
estimate for next year's current account deficit is $220 billion and
$300 billion for 1999. The point is that at the present time we haven't
seen the negative effects of Asia on our economy yet. When Asia starts
to affect the trade accounts, then we'll see the economy slow. Trade
friction will increase and there will be great pressure on the Fed to
do something to lower the dollar by dropping U.S. short rates. At that
point we'll see if the dollar and U.S. Bonds remain the safe-haven.
In other words, the game is far from over.

Looks like Gold gettin ready to test that $280 support point in overseas trading tonight. Course, all things considered, ( like Gold's value to other commodities like Real estate, gas, & food ) , Gold is ALREADY at it's all time low since it's post "legal to own" stabilization phase of the late 70's.

No WONDER Disney and Mentalist et al are srewin around today. ANY thing to take yer minds off what Gold is doing eh boys?

meanwhile, Silver shows absolutely incredible strength in the face of taday's decline in Gold....Gooooooo Silver.....

at 5.729%. Volume on NYSE 626 million shares ( THis is pretty high isn't
it guys ? ) . Have been trying to post this for ten minutes.

At the close of a stellar trading day a week or so ago ( gold closed up 50 cents or so ) I predicted that gold would end 1998 at $3800.+...I have no place to hide...naked to the slings of LGB...go ahead take your best shot, my man. Hooowwweeeveeerrr, I believe I was nursing a cold...and I had polished off half of a fifth of "GOLDSCHLAGER", a beautiful Christmas gift from my secretary. Just in case you are unfamiliar with this spirit ( as I was ) ....it's cinnamon schnapps with real gold flakes floating in the bottle. I had told Deana, my sect'y, about the Gold Eagle article where wild Japanese business guys used to celebrate with these gold highballs...I'm no better than they...I throw myself at your mercy...I am not worthy....

As a side note, the liqueur is made in Switzerland...Nazi gold? ohmy! Please forgive me...I just lost my head...

What a brilliant idea JTF!

Even if gold did get to $2000 by the year 2015, that still only gives you
a 11% annual rate of return, about the long term average for equities.

I predict that the Fed, in our lifetime if not sooner will begin gold sales out of Ft. Knox. Gold is no longer a foundation for ours or anyone else's economic system. The wealth that is tied up in Ft. Knox is a dead weight loss on the rest of the economy. In time it will be sold.

Finally, the good Mr. Peutz did forecast $8000 gold and a $2000 Dow for this year. He also predicted that the next market crash would begin last friday or on today at the very latest. Once again, the good Mr. Peutz keeps his record of being perfect, that is perfectly wrong. I have now made money on doing the exact opposite on two of his calls. I strongly advise the rest of you to follow Mr.Peutz's advice closely and do the opposite. because he does have an uncanny way of always being wrong.

I own a Colt Officers ACP 45 and am very pleased. It holds 7 and 1 in the chamber and is smaller than the 45 I used as an MP in the Army. It has pearl grips with a ( GOLD ) Colt emblem. The M16 is more for crowd control!

Do you really take your investment advice from the government?

Sound wisdom Carl. Expertise in investments is something I will never claim. While i have a vorocious appetite for reading material on the subject ( from all points of view ) , and adapt my investment strategy on a daily basis, I consider all eventualities as "possible".

Therefore I try and fix "odds" to various scenarios, and invest according to best "risk/reward" bets, based on all the data I can factor in. This is certainly not a "tech. analyst" based investment strategy, as I look at a lot of factors that do not relate to historical charts and graphs, however, those are factored in as well.

At heart, I'm just a scientific minded poker player who has made more good bets than bad ones..based hopefully on educated guesses. A better strategy in my view, than the folks who puppet some economic view or another, with fanatical religious zeal..ie....Gold is good, paper is bad, or vice versa.......

The game is far from over.

The real question is what kind of impact will asia have on the US economy. I am guessing that it will be modest. We did much more trade with Mexico when they went thru a meltdown and today both Canada and Europe are in better shape then they were during the Mexico meltdown.

The big threat to the US economy is that the coming rise in the trade deficit sets off the protectionist loonies here and we get an increase in US trade barriers either real ones or in the form of attempts to talk down the dollar. Baring stupid government action, which can never be completely bared I will grant you, the US economy is still on very strong ground.

it strikes me as quite amazing that the South Koreans are giving their gold to the governement.

Haven't they just been hit with a major devaluation?

Haven't they been warned that they are going to be laid off from their jobs?

Haven't they just lost all their money in the stock and bond markets?

Haven't they been told that this condition is going to last FOR YEARS?

Haven't they been told that the BEST investment they made in the last 18 months was buying bullion?

Confusing to A.Goose.

Also, isn't gold worthless to governments. Shouldn't the South Korean government be asking its people for paper dollars: yen, baht, francs, ..., and best yet the SUPER DOLLAR.

I guess when the diaster hits the U.S., kitco members will line up with their bullion donations???

FWIW Go short when Xau dips below 70 and long when it goes over 71.
Gold failed to touch 280 and will come back for it later.
Looking at the chart I venture we might get a bounce to go short at a
later date,can't be greedy ,can we?: )

Hmmm DEJ, I wasn't aware of any branch of Government giving investment advice. WOuld that perhaps be the "Treasury Dept." who's home page links you to the U.S. mint where Gold Eagles are pushed as a good investment for safety and security?

Would that be the "investment advice" from the government you refer to? I havn't seen any otehr anywhere else so that must be it I guess....

( PS, how CAN the Tresury guy's be SO stupid as to be giving away those Gold, Platinum, and Silver Eagles for worthless printed dollars anyway? What dummies! Aren't they in on the Govt. conspiracy thing? Havn't Rubin and Greenspan filled them in or what? )

Thank you for your reply and complement. However, it isn't your expertise as an investor that I was suggesting as a point of difference between you and some others here. It is respect for the conservation of value in the nature of investment that I had in mind. This is fundemental to one's view of money and what it repesents ( the value of what you have done to achieve it from a willing payer ) . Zealots and ideologs aside, some of us believe that currencies do not perform this basic consevation function at this time and are falling back to the oldest conservator of value there is - gold. My point was that the speculative temper cannot connect with this point of view ( as I didn't ) and is apt to view gold as just a good or bad speculative play.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.35

XAU/Spot Ratio = .251

Silver/Gold Ratio = 47.46

You hit the gold button on the head. We kitcoites are super duper patriots and our purpose in life is to save the country by accumulating gold hoards which we will turn over to the government when they ask us to help them in a financial crisis.

All: While not wanting to draw further attention to it, I'd like to withdraw my comment to John Disney at 16:14. It is not the kind of comment I would make in polite company, mixed or not. I got a bit carried away trying to poke some fun at LGB.

fundaMETAList

Soros to the Koreans -
"My boy, have I got a deal for you. I am thinking about your hearts and minds, but first of all..............".

Koreans to Soros -
"Gold, what's that......".

Aye, it makes you wonder.

gold over to Alan Greenspan and M. Camdessus.

Would you hazard a guess as to what the price of gold will be on March 1.
Anyone else have a guess. I am guessing $310.00. It seems to be a long and painful road back if that is the way we are going.

A Goose: I like your comments about wondering why the South Koreans are willing to sell their gold when harder times may be coming. I think the rapidity at which gold has become a valuable asset in South Korea is an indication of what the average person still thinks gold is worth something, despite the official hype that it has no value.

I think a more important question than how much the South Korean people are willing to sell to help out their country, is how much is still hoarded.

I wonder -- just how many Americans would sell their gold to the American government if we had the same kind of currency crisis as the one in South Korea. If gold is really as worthless as Karlito99 and LGB are saying, why are the gold collector coins in such demand?

What we really are having as several very astute Kitcoites are saying, is that the dollar is appreciating as one of the last viable "paper/electronic" currencies. Since gold is commonly priced in dollars, of course it must go down as the dollar goes up.

The price of "worthless" gold has skyrocketed in nearly a dozen countries in the last few months. We will have our gold rally, we just need to be patient. I certainly hope it is a little one, and not to $3000 or $8000 in the next two years. I would be happy with a little rise to $400/oz this year, as I would easily double my money in gold stocks. Did in 1993. A rise to $3000-8000 this year would imply the total collapse of the world's financial system, and none of us want that.

Truly an illustration for The Divine Comedy. Which circle of Hell?

But historically, it has been very rapid asset price declines

-- in equity and real estate, especially -- that have held

the potential to be a virulently negative force in the

economy. I emphasize rapid declines because, in most

circumstances, slowly deflating asset prices probably can

be absorbed without the marked economic disruptions

that frequently accompany sharp corrections. The severe

economic contraction of the early 1930s, and the

associated persistent declines in product prices, could

probably not have occurred apart from the steep asset

price deflation that started in 1929.

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980106/verbatim/verbatim1.html

Can anyone give me the URL for this info too. Thanks.

I was pleasantly surprised to see that my BGR prec mtls fund ( closed end ) closed up .50 ( 4.8% ) today. I can't understand why people buy open ended funds, when they can buy many closed end funds at discounts & don't have to pay a 2% mgmt fee. Another huge advantage is that when the au mkt finally heads up, the closed end funds will be fully invested & unlike the open end funds won't have to keep investing inflows @ higher & higher prices when the retail investors finally start piling in. Also added to my Kinross which is showing good relative strength. I must confess though that in a moment of weakness I bought some Sun micro. Mainly because I hate Msft & think that Sun is gonna kick their ass.

1 ) How long do you think this vaunted US competitiveness and productivity can be maintained with the US dollar as high as it?
2 ) What will happen when the First Quarter results show the lower profits from US Multinats from their overseas operations?

Fiscal Fallacy #4

OUR CURRENCY IS BACKED BY THEGROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT. What nonsense!
Who produces the gross national product? We, the people, product it. Who produces modern "money?" The bankers, every time they make a loan. They get it from thin air.

Now can you seriously accept the idea that the banker's liabilities ( checkbook money ) are backed by---our goods? That's like trying to pay your rent with an IOU. When asked what backs your IOU, you reply that the landlord's property backs it! Pretty good arrangement, isn't it?

You can pay your bills by issuing notes based upon other people's wealth. But isn't that what you believe when you believe that the Fed's "notes" are backed by our own goods?

And what about consumption? If the gasoline in my car's tank is backing for the currency in my wallet, what happens when I burn up the gas? Do my Federal Reserve "notes" somehow disappear?

A very great proportion of the gross national product is consumed. Is someone adjusting the amount of "money" in circulation to compensate for this fact? And are new Fed "notes" only issued except as more goods are produced? The answer to these questions is obviously NO! Our modern "money" comes into existence, as we have seen, when a loan is made, and that loan is not necessarily to increase production. Indeed, it is far more likely that the loan is made, in part at least, to pay the interest on loans previously made by others and passed along as an added cost of doing business. This is a vicious circle that can only lead to disaster. Our present system provides no means of escape.

http://www.fame.org/research/library/pah-001.htm

A.Goose@16:38, I liked too! ( but i'm not giving up my gold...sorry )

G'Day,

You may wish to review the trends of Precious Metals ( Gold, Silver and Platinum ) against various currencies, at

http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/cgi-bin/xrplot

Once you have done so, why don't you telephone Old Clinton and suggest that you have found NEW MARKETS for the Fort Knox stash - Japan and South East Asia. Then suggest that if Clinton can organize it, get the IMF to accept promissory notes for the Precious Metal. Or don't you "trust" the Asians just because they cannot afford the purchase - a mere technical detail?

Mate that is what I like about Americans - "I'm all right Jack".
Do yourself a favour and take a least one thumb out of your ar..

real interesting questions. Were the South Koreans "asked" by their
government to give it back, or are they "doing it out of the goodness
of their hearts and patriotism " ?

A. Goose: You have to remember than when a currency looses out on the global scale it retains its value internally. If you are buying goods with a global price you experience the currency decline. If you are buying local goods nothing changes.

Does anyone know how much gold was confiscated by the US Gov during the '30s?

Packed up my gold ring and mailed it to AG & RR, couldn't aford postage on the .999 stuff.

why would opec decide to increase production with
the price of crude below $17/bbl?

why flood the market with cheap oil when they were
making a killing @$25+/bbl?

the higher $per/bbl allows e&p funds to flow freely
from the majors-----exxon-mobil-shell-chevron-----
this created 'another' boom with the service related companies
expanding faster than they can staff their facilities.

would it benefit the opec cartel to create artificial shortages
in crude products, causing a run-up in prices ( '97 ) and creating
a HUGE windfall profit?

higher prices creates more competition, and less market share------

---unless the market can be cycled rapidly enough to knock the
wind out of the already luffing ( sailors lingo ) sails?

i submit that indeed this is the case....the recent boom is
fixing to bust.......

reminds me of gold.......

war will liberate crude from its' taskmasters......

.......................the currency debacle will liberate gold.......

.....as the paper dummy un-folds...

don't be afraid of the lawnmower blade......

bonds have decided to go one way........the curriencies fiasco will
force them another......

cherokee!;......squirting-on-the-paper-dummies----here lgbito......

Hey, AU-MAN

Date: Sun Jan 04 1998 19:54
glenn ( Gold's going LOWER! ) ID#376309:
When I look at this graph I see that Gold made a simple correction within a bear market, moving from the lower bollinger band and 'ALMOST' touching the upper bollenger band and now is turning DOWN! The NEXT wave DOWN is now in progress. I have stated and worned you that the low is NOT in yet. You had better have your stops in on your foolish long position if you want to be around when the real rally starts!

Just thought I'd mention that four times in the last week I've heard favourable comments about gold stocks on CNBC. Some of the descriptors I heard were 'neglected market segment', 'underpriced', 'turnaround'. IMHO there may be more even if metals prices continue to dip. And a quick check of funds show that mine haven't fallen today. In fact FGLDX went up a penny. http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/trmf/F/FGLDX.html

appreciates versus the Saudi currency, they make more money don't
they, even with a lower US Dollar price ?

http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi

http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi

Let the games begin. Other opening bells:
21:00 Hong Kong
03:00 London
08:30 New York

This is uncharted waters. WE need to hold $280.00 tonight.

Hong Kong Standard, Tuesday Jan 6, 1998

Asian currencies fell to new lows on Monday as the region's
economic turmoil showed no let-up. The currency meltdown
spilled over to Hong Kong as stocks tumbled and interest rates
rose amid concern that the Hong Kong dollar's peg to its US counterpart will come under threat as other Asian currencies
continue to plunge. The Hang eng Index fell 377.03 points, or
3.5 per cent, to close at 10,303.54.

The rate banks charge each other for three-month loans rose to 10.3 per cent from Friday's 9.2 per cent, heightening concern that the local property market would suffer.

http://www.hkstandard.com/online/news/001/hksnews.htm

re your last post. and when would that be?

NEVER!

Kitco shows Gold steady in the Far East.

Thanks. I am actually looking for the site that gives the net Gold and silver position at COMEX. I tried finding that on the CMA site but got lost.

facts and food for thought-------

dow---------------- +22%
s&p---------------- +32%
nasdaq------------- +21%


italy mib---------- +59%
swiss market------- +59%
mexican bolsa------ +55%
german dax--------- +46%
brazil bovespa----- +45%
cac40-------------- +29%
ftse100------------ +24%
tse300------------- +13%
hang seng---------- -20%
nikkei225---------- -21%
korea composite---- -69%


high performance paper......most of it.....expansion and contraction...


warm and VERY WET here in s texas in january ( late )

..will be hot and VERY DRY this summer....starting in the spring ( early ) ..

wonder if alice is still on the moon.......the grain train and drought...
birds of a '98 feather, soon to flock together......

cherokee!;---looking-further-backward-to-see-farther-forward-------

SDRer: Your 14:32. Lyndon Larouche is a brilliant and eccentric man. As far as I can tell from reading his descriptions of derivatives -- he accurately predicted the currency crisis we are in now -- months before it happened. His publications are apparently read by a number of information gatherers, apparently because his contacts around the world get information that others have difficulty getting.

It does not matter if some of his ideas sound totally off the wall. These information gatherers who scan LL's reports have other sources to confirm or deny the Larouche information. I gather LL is now very popular in SEAsia, in part because he does not "sing the company line".

Can the U.S.
Weather Asia's Storm?
The biggest economic news of 1997 was the turmoil in Asia. The biggest question for 1998 is whether the Asian crisis will trigger a significant world-wide deflation, or possibly even a depression. With this in mind, the Journal's editorial page asked a number of distinguished analysts and business leaders to answer two questions: How will the current Asian economic turmoil affect the United States? And what should American leaders do in response?

Here are their replies:

Barton Biggs is chairman of Morgan Stanley Asset Management:

Most Americans are grossly underestimating the recessionary and disinflationary-deflationary forces of what is happening in Asia. By competitively depreciating its currencies, Asia is exporting its deflation, its overcapacity and its lack of growth to the West, particularly to the U.S. Initially the effect on inflation and interest rates is benign, since the U.S. economy is operating at full capacity, although the loss of pricing power will result in profit margin pressures and earnings disappointments. But with the dollar the strongest currency in the world, the U.S. economy inevitably will begin to be hollowed out and the protectionist outcry will begin. If trade barriers result, it will be an impoverishing step backward for free markets and global prosperity.

World-wide competitive devalutions, trade wars and deflationary tendencies could result in a synchronized global slowdown-recession and a simultaneous bear market in Western stock markets. If capital flows were to collapse, disillusionment and unrest could appear in the developing world. A vicious circle could develop.

None of this needs to happen if the U.S. and the other great powers act promptly and wisely. U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin is right to keep urging the Japanese to be bold, and we should pressure the International Monetary Fund to forsake its "tough love" fiscal and monetary austerity remedies for Asia. Instead the IMF should implement programs that enable the Asian countries to grow out of harm's way. These should include tax cuts, deregulation, more transparency and improved bank supervision. The Greenspan Fed and Germany's Bundesbank should become less manic about inflation and worry more about deflation. The next move in official interest rates should be down, not up.

Eventually measures will have to be taken to control macro traders ( hedge funds' proprietary traders ) , who today almost rule the world.

***
Jim Cantalupo is president and CEO of McDonald's International:

We've been in Asia for more than 25 years, and our operations there are strong and diverse, with more than 3,400 restaurants in 20 countries--including 2,000 in Japan, McDonald's largest market outside the U.S.

We remain very bullish on Asia as a market for continued profitable growth. There's no question that some Asian economies have suffered a setback, but we believe they ultimately will continue to thrive.

We've been through similar situations before in Latin America, with periods of hyperinflation, devaluation and currency crises, and we've learned that you have to stay the course. Our operations in Brazil are a good example. McDonald's opened there in 1979. Since then, we've survived seven economic reform plans, five currencies, five presidents, two constitutions and 14 finance ministers. Today in Brazil, McDonald's is the unchallenged market leader. In the past three years, our same-store sales have doubled--in an economy that very recently was described in the same dire terms used to characterize conditions in some Asian markets today.

So, if you're doing business in Asia, stay there. You can't go in and out with every rise and fall of the business cycle. Manage for the long term and, if you can, look at economic downturns as opportunities rather than crises.

***
Rudi Dornbusch is a professor of economics and international management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology:

Can the Asian disease spread to the U.S. and not just take away a half percentage point of gross domestic product but truly damage our prosperity and performance? Yes, if Japan sinks further and its stock market collapses, if a deepening spiral draws in Asia and the rest of the world's economy.

True, with a balanced budget and no inflation, the U.S. has both hands free to pursue a prosperity policy; interest rates can be cut and so can taxes, if need be. Europe, too, can expect to weather the storm: The coming monetary union instills confidence. and for once there is some growth in the past year.

Whatever confidence there is for growth, it does not apply to stock prices. For companies engaged in international trade the overriding impression will be cutthroat competition and deflation. In Europe and the U.S., we are only a foot away from outright deflation in consumer prices. At the level of producers' prices, we are already there--and with huge Asian depreciation and deep recession, competition and deflation pressures will grow.

The other way to catastrophe, closer to home, is Rep. Dick Gephardt and his protectionist ilk. If they succeed in erecting significant trade barriers, depression 1930s-style would be around the corner.

***
Barry Eichengreen is a senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund and a professor of economics and political science at the University of California, Berkeley:

A ballpark estimate is that Asia's current financial turmoil will reduce U.S. growth by a percentage point in 1998. But the precise effect will depend on three factors that no one is in a position to predict.

First, the speed of Asia's recovery. The resumption of growth, particularly in Korea, requires restructuring as well as reflation. Public funds must be provided to prevent bank runs and to supply companies with working capital. But pumping in liquidity alone will not suffice; insolvent entities must be restructured using the applicable bankruptcy procedures. Otherwise, liquidity will leak back out as fast as it is injected.

Second, Japan's fiscal policy, and bank restructuring to keep that stimulus from disappearing down a black hole, will determine whether that country recovers or stagnates.

Third, whether American policy makers resist the protectionist temptation. An Asia that finds it more difficult to finance its imports with capital inflows has no choice but to export more. Depreciation of its currencies against the dollar is the market mechanism for bringing this about. But it will work only if the U.S. resists the protectionist pressure that will accompany the rise in American imports. A protectionist backlash would leave Asia no way out. Its consequent difficulties would drag down other regions.

***
Steve Forbes is chairman of Americans for Hope, Growth and Opportunity:

The Clinton-Gore administration and the IMF are prescribing remedies based on a bogus theory that substantial devaluations are good for getting a country back on its feet. But devaluations are disaster. They trigger enormous domestic inflation, sharply reduce people's standard of living, hobble domestic capital creation, scare away foreign investment. The ultimate result, if unchecked, is economic anarchy.

Encouraged by Mr. Clinton and the IMF, Mexico went the devaluation route in 1994, and interest rates soared to 100%. Unemployment rose rapidly. Workers' salaries were effectively cut some 50%. The majority of Mexicans are worse off today, which is why the governing party routinely loses honest elections. By bailing out investors and speculators, Mr. Clinton unwittingly encouraged speculative money flows elsewhere.

The U.S. should:

help Asian nations stabilize their distressed currencies by repegging them to the U.S. dollar at higher rates than they are now, perhaps through a Hong Kong-style currency board;
pressure the Bank of Japan to cease its on-and-off eight-year deflation;
urge these nations to set up independent entities to take over bad banking loans, just as we did with our savings-and-loans;
urge nations to lower trade barriers, simplify taxes, reduce tax rates and remove excessive regulations on starting and expanding businesses; and
tell IMF officials to take a hike.
***
Yoichi Funabashi is chief diplomatic correspondent of the Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun:

A Japanese financial meltdown, if it should occur, would change the geopolitical picture of the Asian-Pacific region for years to come. Without Japan's vast investment, aid, loans and markets, Asian nations' growth rates will likely sink to levels around 2% to 3%. Massive unemployment would lead to eruptions of ethnic tension in Southeast Asia and abrupt political changes in Northeast Asia. These factors in combination would raise fundamental questions about U.S. foreign policy toward the region.

American leaders should take the following steps to prevent any Japanese meltdown and its inescapable side effects:

Prepare to play a decisive role as "importer of last resort." Only the U.S. is capable of absorbing the exports of Asian nations now, and it will remain the sole absorber until the Japanese economy begins to recover. This is the most effective shock therapy for Asia right now.
Help Japan turn its economy around by strengthening macroeconomic policy coordination. Quieter, but stronger, foreign pressure on Japan's leadership is necessary to overcome the kamikaze-style fiscal coordination that Japan's Ministry of Finance is blindly pursuing amid the most depressed markets Japan has experienced since World War II. Japan cannot be allowed to trigger another Great Depression.
Stop further yen depreciation and preferably stabilize the yen-dollar exchange rate at around 115 to 125 so that the trade imbalance caused by a cheaper yen does not balloon to a point where it upsets the U.S.'s vital role as importer of last resort.
Persuade European leaders not to implement the European Monetary Union and its currency, the euro, which would put additional deflationary pressures on the world economy.
Treat South Korea's bailout differently from the bailouts of Southeast Asia. The U.S. needs to show a firm determination to rescue South Korea, since any perception that Washington is not fully committed to helping Seoul could send the wrong signal to North Korea.
Encourage China to maintain the value of its currency. Renminbi devaluation would likely touch off another round of competitive devaluations among Asian countries.
***
Jeffrey E. Garten is dean of the Yale School of Management:

Recessionary conditions from Japan to Indonesia, together with a dollar that is increasingly strong when measured in Asian currencies, mean a slowdown in American exports and more pressure on corporate profits. We can also expect a dramatic increase in imports from Asia. Aside from fierce foreign competition for U.S. firms, look for rising American trade deficits, perhaps 50% higher than 1997 levels, and downward pressure on U.S. prices and wages.

While recession and deflation cannot, therefore, be ruled out, wise leadership can ensure that neither happens. Tokyo must come up with a much bolder government package to let banks fail while insuring depositors' savings, and stimulate the economy through big tax cuts. The U.S. Treasury, together with the Fed and top American bankers, will need to continue to fashion debt restructurings for big Korean firms for many months to come, thereby avoiding a financial collapse in the world's 11th-largest economy. The Fed will have to be ready to lower interest rates if too many clouds form over the U.S. economic landscape.

Big American firms ought to stay the course in Asia, taking advantage of unprecedented opportunities to buy assets cheaply in industries that have been closed to significant foreign investment. Asia needs the capital and know-how, and, for the longer term, we need their markets, which will undoubtedly rebound very strongly after a few years.

***
James Grant is the editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer:

Vis--vis the U.S., Asia has overnight become a stronger competitor and a weaker customer.

Busts are not only preceded by booms; fundamentally, they are caused by them. An excess of credit promotes overdoing it; and the subsequent contraction of credit contributes to underdoing it. The hallmark of finance in the postwar era has been governmental intolerance of the underdoing-it portion of the cycle. The unintended consequence of a succession of crisis interventions, dating back to the 1970s, has been the subsidy of lending practices that virtually guarantee the recurrence of speculative bubbles. As the booms have gotten bigger, so has the budget of the IMF.

What now? First, do no harm. Markets should be allowed to clear and the prospective winners and losers to sort things out for themselves. And the moral basis for allowing markets to clear is that the private financial establishment should not be bailed out by the public one.

The South Korean crisis, in particular, is mainly a corporate-finance crisis--a shortage of earnings in relation to interest expense. How the IMF, by imposing a 3% limit on the growth of Korean GDP, intends to do anything except increase insolvencies, is a question that the U.S. Congress should investigate at once.

***
M.R. Greenberg is chairman and CEO of American International Group:

The current financial situation in Asia should not have a devastating impact on the world economy, but only if the IMF and the G-7 countries assist the Asian countries to take prompt concerted corrective action. Our export industries have been the most vibrant part of the U.S. expansion, and a reduction in their ability to sell to Southeast Asia will threaten continued U.S. growth. Several years ago Mexico faced a similar problem to that of Asia today. The U.S. stepped in and provided significant help in the short term but was repaid in the long term. The adjustment was painful, but today Mexico is again enjoying renewed growth.

But this is not just a U.S. problem; it is an international problem. Left unchecked, this financial problem could lead to social unrest and political instability. The IMF should take the lead. But the participation of all major countries, including the U.S. and especially Japan, is necessary to prevent the liquidity crisis in these Asian countries from turning into a world-wide economic downturn. Prompt action will prevent illiquid but otherwise sound companies from becoming insolvent. Some companies will not survive, but the Asian economies must undergo this catharsis in order to stabilize and once again grow. The U.S. must demonstrate strong leadership--not only for our own economic self-interest but to stabilize the world trading system.

***
Arthur B. Laffer is chairman of Laffer Associates, financial consultants in San Diego:

There are four--and only four--macroeconomic policy killers of healthy economies, to wit: taxes, restrictions on international trade, government-imposed income redistribution, and bad monetary policy. Unless Asia's continuing gyrations cause our government to do something dumb in one of these areas, we will avoid most of the harmful consequences of the mess in Asia. True, avoiding doing something dumb is not always so easy for government. Nonetheless, it doesn't look as though there are any major tax increases in our future, major protectionist measures on the horizon, or any more proposed income policies lurking just offstage. Most important of all, Greenspan & Co. are doing a great job.

The stock market, as opposed to the underlying economy, will be affected by the turmoil in Asia, and that impact could be substantial--but not serious. Some 30% of the Standard & Poor's 500 companies' profits are derived from foreign operations. Any impact on those profits will hurt our stock market. But here perspective is needed. Even Japan's stock market crash couldn't stop the U.S. bull market of the '90s. In late 1989, Japan's Nikkei stock index peaked at 38900 and now is at 14800--while the Dow Jones Industrial Average went from 2700 to 7700 over the same period.

All in all, we in the U.S. are in pretty good shape. My advice: Don't just do something, stand there.

***
David Malpass is chief international economist at Bear Stearns:

Asia's collapse could be stopped tomorrow if the U.S. government declared that its policy would be promote strong currencies, not weak ones, in Asia. The day the U.S. announced this radically new policy, capital would flood back into Asia as currencies and stock markets there soared. Within weeks, Asia would be able to borrow again from world capital markets, stop drawing on IMF bailout funds, and begin the long recovery process. The new policy would require no capital, no more grand negotiating sessions. All the better if Treasury and the IMF expressed support for the dollar-linked currencies in Brazil, China and Russia, and if the IMF produced an all-new mission statement based on fostering currency stability.

Japan's devastating seven-year deflation could be stopped within months if it revised monetary policy. Instead, Japan is still relying on U.S.-inspired fiscal packages, a process that has failed repeatedly. The U.S. could cause a suitable policy improvement with a telephone call to Japan--"why don't you try printing yen?"--but is still using currency policy to fight Japan's trade surplus. A better monetary policy would actually allow Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. to narrow sharply as Japan's imports rose. It would break deflation's spell over Japanese consumers and allow Japan's immense wealth to start circulating again. Japan's economy would become an engine of Asian growth rather than a dead weight.

***
Edward Yardeni is chief economist and managing director of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell:

As a result of the Asian financial and economic crisis, I lowered my 1998 forecast for real U.S. GDP growth by a full percentage point to 2%, and I slashed my profit growth outlook in half, to 5%. I lowered my year-ahead consumer price inflation forecast to 1% from 1.5% because imports from Asia are much cheaper following the dramatic currency devaluations in the region, which accounts for about one-third of U.S. imports.

U.S. consumers will clearly benefit from cheaper imports and lower interest rates, which might provide them with another mortgage-refinancing windfall. But more of their spending will be on imports, and exports will be depressed because most Asian economies will be in recessions over the next 12 months.

Real GDP growth will be depressed in the U.S. not only by a widening trade deficit, but also by weaker profits growth, which could weaken the growth of capital spending and even employment. The biggest problem for profits is the deflationary consequences of the Asian turmoil on corporate revenues at a time when wage costs seem to be rising more rapidly because labor markets are so tight. This could trigger another round of corporate restructuring, which could then revive job insecurity and weaken consumer spending. Consumer confidence could also erode if the Asian crisis worsens, depressing profits so much that even lower interest rates won't stop U.S. stock prices from falling.

Return to top of page
Copyright  1998 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Ok, guys, what is the scenerio where all vertebrate life is destroyed except for those who are lucky enough to be in the deep mines? http://www.skypub.com/s_t/s_tcurr.shtml

BTW, LGB, I heard that the second Arianne V didn't blow up. Good work, but try to get it fully into orbit next time. ;- )

Southeast Asian Cuurencies Begin 1998 SHARPLY DOWN!

Maylasian, Indonesian & Thailand Currencies Plummeting... AGAIN

Monday, 5 January 1998: Southeast Asian Markets Continue to FALL:
Nikkei DOWN 2.0%, Hong Kong DOWN 3.5%, Maylesia DOWN 4.4%, Singapore DOWN 1.5%, the Philippines DOWN 1.0%, Taiwan DOWN 1.6% & Thailand DOWN 1.8% - THE DOMINOS CONTINUE TO FALL.

John Kutyn is undoubtedly one of last years most brilliant and perceptive analysts on the Domino Effect sweeping through Southeast Asia. His insightful take on currency chaos and stock market turmoil paint a grim picture of what the new year holds for the countries of that area... indeed what the ramifications are for the rest of the world. Following are a few of his random thoughts on the region. Additionally, he shares his opinion of the precarious condition of the Japanese Banking System, and what we might brace ourselves for in 1998.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/kutyn010198.html

I think you must of misread my post to Glenn.

Greetings all. Am disappointed that gold has once again fallen to $US281. It appears that the pre Xmas 297 was indeed a suckers rally and that we are headed towards 250.

Have read many comments on todays posting re: Korea and gold dishoarding. The irony of the situation is this; on one hand the Asian crisis has exposed gold as more a commodity than anything else. That is why it has fallen. Instead of the crisis strengthening gold as the goldbugs would have expected it has been undermined.

However on the other hand, the Koreans resorting to seeling their gold is in fact proof that gold is still a worthy monetary asset of last resort.

While I disagree with the goldbugs on many things, I still think that gold is worth holding in times of emergency.

isn't it strange how klinton is 'seeimgly"
upset at the 'predicament' the paparazzi
has put him in.

he was shown hugging and being a 'loving' husband
to billary.......how frigging plastic......

HE KNEW they were being photographed....the striped smelly critter...

I believe the Koreans were asked to exchanged their US$ hoards in late Nov/early Dec. Now it is gold. These folks are selling their gold to the government. They are selling it at a discount in order for the government to realize US$ to pay internally issued US$ denominated bonds. The public will receive some money in Korean Won back once the gold has been sold. This is all stated or implied in the Reuters article. This is a private sector loan with partial repayment by the government. If the government had gold reserves in the first place they would not need to do this.

This brings up a number of very interesting points:

First, gold is an international money which is exchangable into whatever paper currency you might need at the time. In this case it is US$ to pay US$ denominated bonds which were issued by the government of Korea. Note this. Gold is not a nation dependent currency. It is real and its role is to be independent of any system so that if the system fails, then you have SOMETHING to work with.

Second, imagine what would happen if there was no gold. Consider this for a moment. What are the Koreans trying to avoid? Debt default. If you think the Korean experience is bad now you have not seen a thing. A sovereign debt default would completely ruin any confidence by external sources of capital that the Koreans will EVER honor their debts. All external relations will be on a strictly cash and carry basis. Its would be the German Mark "redux, all over again", baby. In essense if you had real money you could buy the country. Now we might understand why these people are so willing to do what they can to contribute to at least forstalling this possiblity.

Third, think about what it means if this creeping monster where EVER to slink toward the USA and the US$. It is one thing if a country even of Korea's economic stature wobbles on the brink of failure. Their currency is not the world reserve currency. If they fail it will be bad but it will not NECESSARILY imply complete collapse for the world. But if the US ever nears a point of even subtle questions about its ability to retain the unquestioned respect and loyalty of the world's money, then you will see an inexorable destruction of the entire system. The US$ is the world's baseline. If this is EVER questioned, that is to say the US's ability to meet its commitments and to maintain the appearance of strength, then we are toast.

Think about it. Mull it over in your mind. What real value backs the US Government's debt? Is it the economy, really? Our ability to produce services and goods? Or is it the economy's ability to keep working at all? US$ 5.5 trillion dollars ( government debt ) is meaningless itself. There is no magic in US$s. It is only the world-wide markets' willingness to trade US$ and US$ debt for everything under the sun which makes the US$ worth anything at all. Might as well be beads or conch shells or gut bags filled with salt.

Once confidence has been destroyed in all currencies other than the US$ then you will have the seeds of its own demise. A sense of nervousness will develop in which everyone reassures everyone else that everything is OK while at the same time looking for the emergency exit.

This is one of the reasons that ANOTHER's posts seem plausible to me. Oil is the life blood of this modern engine we think of as the world economy. It is the fuel of our electrified, petrol-ized civilization. Without electricity and petro feuled transportation we are back in the 1800's, only we will completely lack the infrastructure of the 1800's to support us. The flow of oil is dependent on a stable medium of exchange. I really don't think that anyone can object to the assertion that a couple of years of total currency chaos would very much destroy what we know of as modernity.

The idea that oil's use of gold to halt a world wide currency collapse is probably beyond many people's willingness to imagine. But consider it for a moment if you will. Oil must flow. Oil must have a stable medium of exchange in order to assure a complete trading environment. Oil is the ultimate value. If oil asserts its willingness to value US$'s *and* gold in some relationship to oil, then it WILL be so. Right now oil is willing to be traded in US$s. But if confidence in that currency begins to erode ( since it is only a currency ) then what MUST oil do seeing that its many assets are invested in US$s? It must find a way to stabilize the US$. Since gold is precious ( rare ) and hardly inflate-able like currencies it is a logical candidate for use in regulating inflated, unstable currencies. Oil will make a market for US$s and for gold. In so doing it will have removed uncertainty and allowed the world to save itself from the brink of disaster.

If we ever get that far.

Thanks JTF, for the input

Eccentric though he be, he certainly processes information exceedingly well!

Enjoying your posts, as usual...

Gold intraday price hasn't been this low since June 5th 1979.

Judy Shelton, the author ( ess ) of Money Meltdown was on CNBC today expressing many of the issues you just raised. She feels we are well on our way to all out deflation.

Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after trading today:

Gold: Fell 610 troy ounces to 487,767

Silver: Rose 345,796 troy ounces to 110,782,426

What affected Gold the most today is obviously the process of Gold dishoarding in South Korea: people are now turning in every jewelry piece they possess in order to have it melted down!

Silver effectively retested the "580" level without breaching and it also put in quite a performance considering what happened in the Gold market. However, Silver may continue to play defensive a bit while the "deflation" turmoil continues but REMEMBER that the big picture has not changed at all and once the dust settles a bit, there could be a quick and violent upward readjustment of Silver prices back above the important $6 level.

The game is far from over. The competition is now down to the dollar and
gold for safe-haven status. Right now the dollar is ahead. But its
position is precarios. We have not yet begun to see the effect of
Asian deflation on our economy. If you noticed the Barton Biggs comments
that were posted here from the Wall Street Journal, you will notice that
he is saying the same thing. The current account deficit is set to explode and when it does, the U.S. economy will slow producing increasing
trade tension and pressure on the Fed to lower short rates. This should
produce a stampede out of the dollar and into gold. Gold may go to $250,
who really knows. But this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime.
When it starts to move the fundamentals of a large supply deficit and
massive short position will send it sharply higher. Although the initial
move may be halting because of overhead resistance.

In times of deflation is it ENTIRELY APPROPRIATE that governments print money to refalte the economy. Although the goldbugs disagree, it is possible to do this WITHOUT inflation. It merely takes up the slack in the economy until private enterprise can pick up the pieces.

The other alternative is world wide depression and unemployment. Sorry guys, but Keynes was right. Rather print that have 30% unemployment.

http://biz.yahoo.com/snp/980105/snp_2.html

I agree. This is a great buying opportunity. I also agree that the US is not immune from the Asian crisis.

But I can't see gold being reinstated as a standard for currency. It should indeed go to about $400 eventually, but probably not for a few years.

Who knows.

Thanks JTF, for the input

Eccentric he may be; he certainly processes information exceedingly
well!

Enjoying your posts, as usual...
Have you noticed an increase in the number of articles suggesting
that ( gasp ) the "to big to fail" policy may not be 'correct'?

Flight Capital Fuels 15-Year-Old Bull Market

Although Rick Ackermans article was published in a major US newspaper a couple of weeks old, it nevertheless provides some interesting insights to the US market and world problems, which undoubtedly will have an impact in 1998.

With Asia's financial markets festering seemingly beyond remedy, Japan mired in near-depression, and the locomotive economy of South Korea in danger of seizing, why has Wall Street barely flinched?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/ackerman123197.html

1. People on the street begining to realize that Asian Meltdown maybe something to be concern about, but the confidence still remains that gov. will handle the situation.

2. My father called me up to ask me how to get the best deal on gold. ( Thats an about face! )

3. LGB says gold is worth keeping !??

Folks, I am frustrated as much as the rest of you, but I cant stay put having money in gold and keep watching it disappear. I am not a saint willing to scarify everything in order to pursue a goal to get in "investor heaven" after suffering in my "earthly" gold investor life, even if I believe that this will happen, all the hell will break loose, and there will be a time to pay for our sins.

Yes, I pulled the rest of my money still residing in gold mutual fund money and put it back into that damned evil stock fund.

Yes, I believe that Dow will run up to around 8,300 before it will slide through the correction.

Yes, I believe that gold will have its run but, as many have already pointed out, not before the confidence in US$ evaporates and this will take some time.

No, I dont believe that well see a market crash which would wipe out all paper gains in one day and I hope I will be able to move my money back to PM investments to ride it up.

Why do I believe that I can do it? Because I am getting a good, diverse education about what is happening in markets from all Kitco participants. This makes me better that the average investor who does not have a clue.

Sorry guys, there are two things you need to have to participate in any rally: 1 - knowledge to know when it begins ( to get in early ) , and 2 - have some money left ( to be able participate ) .

I am just a small peanut, and if I did not do what I did, I would not meet the requirement # 2.

So, forgive me Father - I have sinned, in what I have done, and in what I have failed to do .....

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980105/brazil_has_highest_s_1.html

Good decision dude. Rally still some way off in PM. Hope you make heaps.

The entire system of debt is at risk here. Its a system which allows the use of future money at a price. The expectation is that the debt will be used to produce more vallue than presently exists. Part of that value is returned as interest to the lender. If enough borrowers become insolvent the problem is not solved by simply handing out MORE loans. The problem is that that those future prospects of increased value are destroyed. In other words there is no justification for lending. Printing money may get the lender out of hock but it will never produce value in the future. It simply redoubles the burden of the borrow. And if the first series of loans failed to produce enough increase in value to justify a continuation of indebtedness, then MORE DEBT WILL NOT HELP IT ONE BIT AT ALL.

Consider the admission this would be: 50% of the world goes bankrupt. Money is simply handed to them in order to pay off their loans. But if they could not pay off their loans to one lender, how can they pay them off to the second lender. The admission would be that the more your are indebted and failing the more money you will receive, ad infinitum ....

This is completely upside down. And the effect would be to cause people to flee from such a stupid system to something that has nothing to do with it. They will opt for a system which is fair. One which does not print meaningless money to hand to those who have not produced value. In such a stupid system those who fail and lose the most money would become the richest people in the world. The more you fail the better off you will be while those who succeed would find no incentive to do so.

Ted, does this sound like Cape B. to you. Ha!!!

Spock, the average person who put $50,000 in a stock market mutual fund five years ago has about $300,000-$400,000 sitting there today. The majority of Americans are rolling over their money from year to year...spending the dividend monies only and a small fraction of principal.

Ergo, there is already a huge increase in money supply sitting in the market and that supply represents potential inflation. Any surprise shock to the market and a good portion of the money may move from investment to consumpton.

Add that money to the money that is being printed currently at a hellish pace, and in no time at all, you are confronted with a double digit inflationary scenario. On the spin of a dime, deflation becomes inflation.

As Milt Friedman said in an interview recently, "Deflation is an immediately soluble problem...you just print money. The problem remains
inflation!"

Has anyone wondered how the Dow could trade this kind of volume and end up flat for the day? The large sell programs today were released into
strength which plays right into the idea that paper is moving to weak
hands as we speak! Those who cast stones at us goldbugs better turn their
attention to their paper portfolios being managed by none other than some
mutual fund manager. The mutual fund meltdown began last month when funds
began borrowing money to cover redemptions which at some point will have
to be paid. This action has the same effect as an undeclared shorting of
the overall market. The next move was the press that lead to the funds
deciding that reporting net inflows and outflows would no longer be reported, so the sheep could sleep better at night!
Next came Greenspan who out of the blue decided that the subject of Deflation needed to be addressed and if you want to know the thinking
behind this spin just look at the treasury markets. Next up, Clinton steps up to the podium and educates us on how well the Government has
handled the budget deficit! It does not end there!
The Koreans are going to give away their gold and help the Government get
the economy going again. Give me a break, Koreans in fact S.E.Asia is a
different culture and to read them at face value is a mistake! They are
brought up on the basis that deception in business is the norm and never
ever play your cards for anyone to see! They have not even shuffled the
deck yet so be prepared for the not so obvious next move! Timing of the
markets,"WHO THE HELL CARES, THE RICH ARE ABOUT TO FLEECE THE POOR FOR
THE SECOND TIME IN 69 YEARS AND THE SECRET WEAPON IS THE MUTUAL FUND
INDUSTRY!" If you donot mind the clippers just stay on your path and they
the spin doctors will give you a haircut this time that could be border-
line scalping. The decision is yours and only yours!

Hope you're not putting your head in a noose, friend!

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 7:23PM 14936.26 -20.58 -0.14%
Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 7:34PM 14871.23 -85.61 -0.57%

I hope the Japanese realize that they are becoming the bigest joke of the world markets. Everyday they release news that they will intervene in the currency markets to defend the yen and everyday the yen falls. Everyday they announce that they have solved the currency problem and everyday the crisis continues. Everyday they announce measures that will revitalize their economy and their economy continues to slump.

Their ancestors are definitely rolling in their graves. The almighty yen and Japan Inc. are getting crushed by the yankee dollar and the yankee software algorithms.

If Japan doesn't get its act together soon, they won't have any face to save.

( no offense meant to my Japanese friends and inlaws )

Welcome Back Guy and ?

BANGKOK, Jan 3 ( Reuters ) - The Thai military plans a nationwide
campaign to collect gold, jewellery and other donations from people who
want to help tackle the country's economic crisis, government officials
said on Saturday.

It seems their is an effort to have the US dollar replace or be equivalent to gold in the world's eye. Argentina sells gold for Treasuries/Koreans give gold to govt to buy dollars/ is there a theme here or am I missing something. Gold, unfortunately may be in for another attack say to 240. We are at a crisis point where the whole thing is about to blow/ dollar supremacy is the last defence against the ultimate depression. These people who think the US economy is so great should ask themselves the question that if it is WHY DO they ADVERTISE IT ALL THE TIME. If it truly were and everything really were in balance then the constant harangue would be unnecessary. Fact is is that things are much worse than advertised. Thus the war on gold intensifies and probably enters its final and painful stage for GBs.

I wouldn't give up my gold positions, including the stocks, but I really don't see much hope for more than a rally until the monetary authorities realize that the currency mess can't be put right without a more solid frame of reference than another managed currency. When the too strong dollar starts to hurt politically powerful business and labor interests there will be a squeal for relief a la cheaper dollar. Probably a lot more anti foreigner rhetoric too. World trade slows down, Long term rates go up as short rates are manipulated down, stocks tank as mutual fund proxy "investors" bail out of their highly leveraged derivatives. The expectations underpinning stock valuations are exposed as hot air and the major collateral for expansion of credit at this time shrinks to the chagrin of many. Can anyone offer a scenario where soft landing is possible under current conditions now that the unravelling has begun? I'm not saying this might not be good for gold but that extreme volatility will probably set in based on the height of short term interest rates.

Thanks for the opporunity to participate.

KOREA GOLD--How ( and why ) they do that...

Were it necessary for me to wage a confidence battle...
my Kindleberger would suggest to me the Bank of Englands South Sea Island ploy of friends of the bank in the front of the line, depositing money that went out the back door to re-enter as more deposit...

and I would wonder if the Bank of Korea might not have a friend or two willing to run the front door in--back door out Bank of England Let The Masses See How Sound We Are....

The quid pro quo in this case is, AG, et.al. speaking, Bank of Korea, we cant help you at ALL unless we keep the dollar strong, stable and believable, and we cant do that for the dollar unless we keep gold buried...

And I really suspect something very like that...

Full trading day today so lets see just how much air has been created and
how much support can be offerred!

I read recently in the Arkansas Democrat that nearly all new chopper gunships-s'cuse me- attack choppers are being painted matte black.
Seems it makes the slightly less visible from the perspective of angularity of form being modulated, hence less light refraction, and so endlessly on!
Boy I'm glad there are no real problems in our fair land , at least from the standpoint of governmental intrusion into the lives of the citizenry!
Thanks for the tip off little garrulous boy and pedo companion.

( :+^}[

I tip my metaphorical cap to you. Said with passion, insight
and conviction.

Also see the Thai's are jumping on the "bring us your gold..."
bandwagon. One country might be almost marginally believeable ( tho I don't believe it ) But NOT a spreading contagion to help your
government...no, no, no The WH war room at work. And things must
be sliding into the "fear" camp if this is the best they can do!

Miro, Happy New Year, by the way.

If you can get "The Professional Commodity Trader"
by Stanley Kroll, you may find some interesting
and educational things there. Not a must to read,
but I personally found something in parallel with
the current gold story. I may be wrong, but it looks
like there is a reasonable hope for gold this year...

Koreans are about to find out that their problems are far from finished
and their Gold will become much more valuable to them in the future.

Well, I turned on the news today
And what did CNBC have to say
They said there's far too much gold in the world
That's when I lost it completely and hurled
If there's anything in excess supply
It's the paper with that Washington guy
Everyone's loading up on the American green
It ain't nearly as rare as it's been
When anything falls into such excess
You can bet it'll end up in a mess
So you're better off holding things that are rare
Or you'll end up losing all of your hair!!

Much has been made of the downward plunge in gold prices during 1996 and 1997. Monetary officials as well as government officials around the world have advertised the fact and led the public at large to believe that this drop is an indication that fiat
megabyte money is "King of the Hill", that all is well with our
monetary system, and that we will all live happily ever after. It is the author's hope that THIS PAPER HAS DISPELLED THIS MYTH in the mind's of the people who read it.

Analyst Miller sees regent years IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE in paper assets ( stocks & bonds ) as a new chapter for the classic work Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. He, like George Bernard Shaw, votes for GOLD:

"If you have to choose between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability and intelligence of the members of the government. And with due respect to these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold."

The Summary includes an extensive SUGGESTED READING LIST, his recommended Internet Gold Links, and other pertinent information sources:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/jmiller123197.html

If the gold being taken in by the govt of Korea is jewelry it is not tradeable unless sold after refining at a cost of over 500 per oz.Why would the govt wqant uneconomical gold? Maybe the CBs dont really have much gold not loaned out actions in Asia suggest they are running out. Any loss of confidence in US stks or Bonds and it is curtains for el dollar. A bubble grows!! If we are at the beginning of the panic melt down stage dont expect govts or CBs to advertise IN FACT just the opposite as now.

Well no matter how many correct and timely calls one makes the only thing on trades minds is "What's Next?" & "What are you going to do for me now?"

The temptation to buy Gold under $300 is great and the idea of a new short position at these levels is scary. To try and project teh exact bottom at this point is very difficult as I am not a visionist or psychic.
I can tell you from poring over the fundamental data and charts ( I can see a few weeks into the future at this point ) that the low simply will not happen in January. What happens in Febuary I may know at that time. All that I am asking myself is for a 24 hour notice of the exact bottom I am will be very happy! If I had to guess the bottom in Gold I would guess $255.00, but I can not rule out a much lower target. If you own Feb 280 puts I would not give up on them yet. They could easily be in the money before the week is over.

As far as silver goes there are two competeing forces. I force is tring to buy/force the price UP and another group is try to crack this market and make it fall. I do not know who will win. I am staying away from silver right now. I seem to know the Gold market much better than silver and shall stay with what I know.

For the record I am very bullish on Gold long term but I shall not try to support it all by myself!

Allen, I hope I don't do that. No, I don't have all my money in stox ( I keep some of them sitting dry in MM ) , just like I did not have all my money sitting in PM related investment. It was always the mix, but despite the fact that only a small part of my portfolio was in PM related stocks, it in the last couple of month it dropped $15K, and I don't like that. When the "real" rally begins, you can be sure that the PM related investment will represent the larger part of my "play".

Why didn't the Koreans give dollars? It's where value lie is.

the-hat-man------

excellent..........damned near looks like one of mine!!

---------don't be afraid of the lawnmower blade...........

they're a comin...the herd of peopleo ( sleepwalkers to you sleepwalkers )
are milling their way south for the annual harvest of paper-lichen....
little do they know that the hong kong chicken flu was passed from
korea to hong kong on the yuan! this is some serious sh!t!! the
paper-lichen that is.....it does not exist! it was killed-off by
a 7 year bout with lichen-itis, and the well ran dry...the peopleo
do not know! poor peopleo........no where to go................
.the peopleo, stranded in the wilder-ness, with no food or water...

who amongst all you brave goldbugs will go? !; ) !; ) i know!

---LGBITO-----YES....LGBITO.....he does have a purpose!.. future fodder..

............and the never-ending story goes on and on and on..........


cherokee-----!; ) --seeing-as-much-as-crossed-eyes-can-see------now----

When I said there are two competeing forces in silver I really ment that there are two very large trders one who wants the price UP and the other who wants it down. Obviously there are always two forces on any commodity but rarely two very large traders competeing against each other like this. Expect large moves overnight when the volume is the lightest.

First reports have the Korean govt asking citizens to turn in gold
and now the Thai military are going around asking their people to donate gold ( but gold is a monetary non-entity they tell us ) so, does anyone see a relationship to USA in 1932? Can we be far behind in 1998?

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 8:12PM 14738.36 -218.48 -1.46%

Will the Japanese government collect gold or platinum?????

glenn----

in your post you mentioned several things you were not......

you forgot speller!; )

however, seeing as how i seemingly mis-spelled 'seemingly' i'll not
mention this.....

----master-of-reality----you know who......the bat biter!

cherokee!; ) ---at-warp-speed-----------for-the-better-of-all--------yeehaa

AJ ( 19:48 ) : Please reread that post. I think you will agree that the last two words were inappropriate and uncalled for.

Down .40 @ 282.30~~~~~~~

I agree that I should review my posts and correct my mis-spellings. Sorry.

Let me get this straight: some guy, hidden in a bush, repeatedly points a thing at Bill and Hillary and the Secret Service do nothing?!

Either:

a ) The Secret Service are *totally* incompetent and incapable of protecting the President, and should be sacked, or

b ) The whole thing was staged from the word "go" - a publicity stunt as mentioned here to "indoctrinate" the great unwashed American sheep herd about what a "loving couple" ( gag ) the Clintons are.

Are we really this credulous?

Well, I sat down to dinner ready to eat
Sweet potatoes, pasta, and real tender meat
Prepared by my wife, she's a super, fine cooker
And let me tellya, she also one hot, sexy looker
I inhaled the dinner's aroma, let it waft up up my nose
And much to my surprise, instead of food, I smelled gold
My nose started tingling like never before
The sensations were sharp, knocked me right to the floor
I looked up at my wife with a sh__-eating grin
"Honey, there's one helluva gold short squeeze about to begin!!"
There'll be index fund managers wetting their pants
There'll be central bankers running round in a total, dazed trance
Screams will be heard reverberating across the trading room floor
As the shorters desperately search for an ounce of gold to score
And as gold soars through the roof to eight hundred an ounce
Wall Street bulls will be praying for at least a dead cat bounce
Anything's better than nothing, they'll say
As they fall to their knees, bow their heads, and pray
To a God who is totally deaf to their earnest cries
Who is punishing them for their New Paradigm lies
"I warned you in church when you prayed to Me last Sunday
You better run out and buy a holy load of gold on Monday!!!"

.

with the us$ rising above 130 yen..........
with the nikkei225 below 15k and dropping like a rock.......

what did the japanese gov't say it will do if the us$
rises above 130 yen.....?

they have no choice.....bald headed al greasespam said it is in the
best interest for the us$ to be strong.......

this is tantamount to currency and market warfare......

the lines have been drawn in the sand......the combatants known.....
------LOOK OUT!!! INCOMING LGBITO!!!!!

what a hell-of-a-nasty-mess...you know who.........ito for short-------

With the dramatic drop in Gold today, I found myself getting confused.
I feel like I have been living the Abbott and Costello Whose on First routine.
So I decided that I had better sit down and list the events that have
occurred over the last few months.

Asian currencies collapse.
George Sorros and other Bankers accused of creating problem.
Asian stock markets crash.
US prints US$s to shore up IMF - Asian bailout.
Chase Bank, Goldman Sachs, and other banks financially exposed.
US and others drive Gold down to protect the US Bond.
Asian flight to safety - US$ and US Bonds.
Japan tries to shore up their stock market.
OPEC announces that it is going to sell more Oil.
Resignations, arrest and suicides of Asian corporate officers.
Bankers move into Japan and buy loans secured by REAL ESTATE.
US debt accelerates at end of year.
Bonds interest rates fall as do mortgage rates.
IMF broke!
Chase Bank & Goldman Sachs loans to Mexico covered by the IMF.
Mexico borrowed US$ from the IMF to pay back the US loan.
US still owes IMF for the Mexican payback to the US - GO FIGURE!
Mexico 50 billion dollar loan never really paid back.
US prints more US$s for loan to IMF - ASIA bailout.
Asian selling of US Bonds.
US Congress will be ask to increase funding to IMF.
Gold climbs back as US prints US$.
US books IMF loans, same as cash.
George Sorros says Asian situation worse than thought.
AG, Federal Reserve Chairman, possible DEFLATION
Japanese markets continue to crash.
Secretary Ruben wants a strong dollar
Secretary Ruben will use special powers and US$ funds for Asia.
Where is the US getting all of the US$ to cover the commitments.
The US President avoids Congress - for the present.
George Sorros has long weekend meeting with South Korean leader.
US President at a private/secret meeting in St Thomas.
US President on at Beach with his family - Photo Op for sure.
Gold driven down again.
Under Sec. Treasury meets with South Korean leader.
Who is really buying the US Bonds if Asia is insolvent - The Bankers?
Asians begin to loose their jobs and property.
Asians can not afford to buy US products.
Asian real estate depreciates dramatically in value.
Americans will buy cheaper Asian products.
The Bankers move in and begin to buy Asia at $0.10 on the dollar.
US products will go unsold.
Asians begin to get angry at foreign Bankers.
US corporate profits will crash.
US corporations will layoff workers.
Americans will not be able to buy cheap Asian products.
US labor unions will ask for protection.
US considers Protectionist measures.
US has been buying its own Bonds - MONETIZING its debt.
Asian nations will have internal conflict.
Asians will sell their remaining US bonds.
Asia, IMF, and the US are all BROKE!
Where is the US getting all of the US$ to cover the commitments.
Confidence in the US$ and the US Bond questioned.
Gold Rises Sharply.

A dollar in the banking system can be leveraged 10:1. A dollar in a mattress is not leveraged at all. ...When deflation lowers interest rates, the loss of real income by holding cash may not be significant compared to the risk of losing your capital due to default of Banks or other Institutions.. Watch the growth of currency as a crucial sign that the economy is headed for a deflationary contraction. ...When the value of collateral falls, and the publics demand to hold cash rises, even easy money at the FED may not stop deflation. THE GREAT RECKONING, protect yourself in the coming depression revised and updated by, Davidson/ Rees-Mogg, pages 448 and 449.

I am sure I have left many things off the list. I intentionally did not include
the worrisome nationalistic events and trends that are occurring.

HighRise

Gold prices are only lower because the dollar is strong. Who wants the yen or those other worthless currencies? So far people are are stocking up on the dollar because of its so called strength, just wait until people realize that the dollar and the stock market aren't security and that gold is king. That day is drawing nigh!

The Honk Kong Oracle has given another insightful and perhaps even alarming prediction of what currency turmoil to expect in Asia during 1998. It is definitely NOT a pretty picture. Milhouse gives his considered opinion on all the currencies and GOLD.

Gold will be the major beneficiary of the increasing currency volatility wrought by EMU and the drive to inflate which is already underway in almost every country. The reason it will benefit is because it is the only form of money which exists outside the financial system. As such, it is the only truly effective hedge against inflation. Any method of hedging against inflation which exists within the financial system involves a payment risk. Also, even if your non-gold hedge is 100% effective, you simply end up with a larger quantity of paper.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/milhouse010598.html

Excellent scorekeeping. That was a PRINT and
tape to the wall!!!

spud-potato-dude-----

the absurdity of it all! gee whiz, this is what is has come to....
absolutes on all sides! absolute lies from the government in all
aspects.......what is next.....it's too much to expect ANY of the
gov't goony-birds to accomplish anything other than posturing for
the history books.

posturing...no substance or productivity...the call of the politicians..
posturing...lies and deciet.....for their legacy...........harrumph...

Feb. Gold down .70 @ 2-8-2~~~~~But it sounds like we should ( nothin is ever definite in CB ) close on this place within TEN days ( YEEEEEEESSSSS ) ---get me the hell out of here!!

I think I heard on CNBC that Goldman Sachs, Sec. Treasury, Ruben came out today for a strong Dollar.

They have to destroy Gold and all else that might challenge the US$ & US Bond.

They appear to be able to print and cook the books at will.

I was all set to buy at $285 today but never expected gold to blow it out. Now $280 looks like a give me. If gold reverses I buy at $285 but I am going to ride this bear for all she has.
The 280 Feb put is $190 and climbing. Thanks for your input.

Gold is Dead. ( woe is me )

Thanks

After waiting patiently these many months for the long awaited gold rally I am beginning to feel like the survivalist who spends all his time looking for the black helicopters coming over the horizon. Will it ever come or is it just wishful thinking?

High Rise: That was comprehensive list.

Monday January 5, 8:12 pm Eastern Time

BOJ believed selling dlrs at 134.20 yen--traders

TOKYO, Jan 6 ( Reuters ) - The Bank of Japan ( BOJ ) is believed to have sold dollars at around 134.20 yen in mid-morning Tokyo trade on
Tuesday, traders said.

Get ready for a long tough fight.

Today, 1-5-97 at 5:08 p.m. WST a nationally syndicated radio program on NPR called "All Things Considered" reported statements by President Clinton that projections indicate a budget deficit of only 22 billion later this year. Later there were comments by Newt Gingrich that his budget projections indicated a budget surplus of 32 billion dollars. Both Clinton and Gingrich made statements about lowering taxes and handling the Social Security and Mecicare "problem".

President Clinton warned legislators that although this windfall is expected to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars over the coming years, he did not want legislators to become too exuberant over the prospects of increased deficit spending. Clinton suggested that we might be able to lower taxes from 38% to 25% over the coming years.

It is apparent to me that the US is about to authorize large cuts in taxes in an effort to stimulate the economy ala Japan. The spin that will be used will be false statements about the magically shrinking deficit to justify massive tax breaks.

I interpret these actions along with the unecessarily heavy handed shorting of gold as being acts of desperation.

I feel you need a drink.
Do it, man, don't listen to the doctors.

high-rise-----

yes, rubin stated the us wants a strong $ today.

this is an absolute affront to japan....kind-of-like
a US SNEAK ATTACK!

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
======HEADLINES----CHEROKENAZI NEWS=====

us sneak attack on the yen and nikkei225
today. expect major retaliatory strike
with the super-secret BOND-BOMB.

more as it is seen...........

Vronsky: Gold is the: "only form of money which exists outside the financial system."

A well turned phrase and a new way of looking at the same old thing. ie, Gold does not represent someone elses debt.

Dollar still climbing tonight. 1.8255 against the dmark. gold hanging in there.

It will come.

Read HighRise's post 20:29.

I like it, he got a whole picture in short volume.

Also, have a drink, it helps.

It is still early in this deflationary game.

"Warning Signs of Deflation" TGR

+"A dramatic drop in the market price of freely trading instruments that mimic the valuation of Bank collateral."

+"Falling commodity prices. But note that a rising nominal price of Gold implies that either the crunch is still ahead or it is already passed. At the end of past credit cycles, the real price of gold has bottomed at or near the end of the credit cycle, then risen sharply."

+"Continued declines in realestate, in spite of 'easy Money.'"

+"A fall in loan demand in the face of falling interest rates."

"THE GREAT RECKONING"

WSJ:
January 5, 1998

U.S. Accounting Firm Files Suit
Against Former Bre-X Official

By MARK HEINZL
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

The bankruptcy trustee of Bre-X Minerals Ltd., the Calgary, Alberta,
company at the center of an elaborate mining fraud, sued former Bre-X
vice chairman and geologist John B. Felderhof and won a court order
freezing his assets in the Cayman Islands.

Accounting firm Deloitte & Touche Inc. said it filed the suit against Mr.
Felderhof in the Grand Court of the Cayman Islands, which ordered a
freeze on all assets held in the Cayman Islands by Mr. Felderhof, his wife
Ingrid and a company believed to be controlled by her.

The lawsuit, which seeks damages of three billion Canadian dollars
( US$2.1 billion ) , was filed on behalf of Bre-X and its shareholders in the
Cayman Islands because Mr. Felderhof lives there and "that's where we
believe his assets are," said Ross Nelson, a senior vice president at
Deloitte & Touche in Calgary. Mr. Nelson said the lawsuit isn't publicly
available because of restrictions in the Cayman Islands, and he declined to
disclose details in the lawsuit such as the amount of assets that were
frozen. Mr. Felderhof is being sued for alleged "negligence and breach of
his fiduciary duty" in connection with the Bre-X scandal, Mr. Nelson said.

Mr. Felderhof earned about $35 million selling shares of Bre-X in 1996
while he and other company officials were touting a major gold discovery
at Busang, a jungle site on the Indonesian island of Borneo. In early 1997,
Mr. Felderhof surprised Bre-X followers by announcing Busang likely
contained 200 million ounces of gold, much richer than the company's
previous estimates, and an amount that would have made it the world's
biggest gold find. Weeks later, independent tests at the site raised serious
doubts about the gold find, and investigators later determined Busang was
an elaborate fraud. Bre-X's once highflying stock became worthless, and
the Canadian company entered bankruptcy proceedings a few months ago
in Calgary.

Mr. Felderhof, a Canadian citizen of Dutch descent, resides with his wife
in a $2.9 million seaside estate in the Cayman Islands. He bought a second
property valued at $1.3 million and last June transferred its ownership to
his wife. A Cayman Islands official said Mr. Felderhof is a "short-term
resident," and declined to say if he had applied for permanent residency.
The Felderhofs lived for a short time in 1996 in an upscale area of
Virginia, where they traveled in a chauffeur-driven limousine and a
Lamborghini sports car.

Lawyers representing Mr. Felderhof weren't available for comment. In
written statements Mr. Felderhof strongly denied any involvement with the
fraud and any knowledge that Busang was a hoax before the independent
tests were done. His lawyers a few months ago released the results of a
polygraph examination that they said showed Mr. Felderhof's denials were
truthful. Before and after the fraud was exposed, Mr. Felderhof defended
Bre-X's unusual sampling methods at Busang.

Private investigators a few months ago concluded that two Bre-X site
geologists, Filipinos Michael de Guzman and Cesar Puspos, conspired to
"salt" Busang's rock samples with gold flakes over several years, and said
Mr. Felderhof's role is "an open question." Mr. de Guzman died under
mysterious circumstances days before major doubts about Busang were
raised, and Mr. Puspos denied that he participated in any attempt to enrich
the Busang rock samples.

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police are continuing an investigation into
the Bre-X affair. Several other lawsuits have been filed against Bre-X, its
top officials and companies that advised Bre-X or recommended the
purchase of its stock.

Return to top of page
Copyright  1998 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

DUH

speak with forked tongue. Since when has a politian been honest and up
front with its people! Can you imagine Clinton tries to tell the world
that S.E. Asia is simply a bump in the road. When I watched Greenspan
walk up to the podium today I knew what it was like to feel fear as for
the first time I realized these jokers are dealing with something they
have never experienced before. They dismiss history as a lesson and claim
to have all the answers to cure the fact that from a paper money standpoint the world is bankrupt! I have taught my children that in real
life every action creates a reaction and one must think their actions through in order to avoid painful reactions. Now I watch these spin doctors attempt to settle the sheep by telling them that the hungry wolves donot like fat little sheep. Spoke to a union official before xmas
and he told me that not only are the union ranks growing at a record rate
but that the meetings are becoming more and more militant. What will the
world face this time around when the average person wakes up to the fact
that the rich have stolen their retirement by creating an illusion of wealth which could be gained by placing their savings into Mutual Funds!
You get what you give in this life as long as you give to those in need
and with that I will save give lots!

The dollar continues to rise inexorably. Its continuing strength is remarkable to behold. Given that scenario, on a longer term basis, Glenn's $255 gold model is a very likely outcome.

It is far too parochial, IMO, to continue viewing the near term prospects for gold as a solitary and isolated element. It seems to me that it would be far more productive to concentrate on those elements which will, in the short term, impact the dollar in a negative fashion.

In short, if the near term prospects for the dollar continue to remain positive, then handle your personal gold position accordingly. There just doesn't seem to be a viable alternate.

Thanks, I think.

They won't let me have anything stronger than coffee. Thank God, or else I wouldn't have any money left to buy Gold.

I figure two guys, one named Dewars and the other Jack, and that's Jack Daniels of Tenn. ( The one with the Black label ) cost me at least a million US$.

I spent two recessions with a scotch in my hand. I am interested in seeing what happens this time with a cup of coffee in hand.

Now at 280.90

+9, the counting stops.

Selby: That's two of us. A couple more and we'll have a quorum. Studio R? Yer next to vote.

Earl: When I calculated and posted $250 last fall I couldn't believe it would get below 300 in my lifetime. Now it seems perfectly reasonable that it did.

With gold going to $250.00 why not print some of those extra stength U.S.
dollars and short the yellow stuff?

maybe I could afford a meal in Tokyo.


Monday January 5, 9:09 pm Eastern Time

MOF says worried over yen, to act in timely manner

TOKYO, Jan 6 ( Reuters ) - Finance Minister Hiroshi Mitsuzuka said on

Tuesday he is worried about the current state of the yen and the ministry
maintains its basic stance that it will deal with it in a timely and appropriate manner.

``There is no doubt that we are worried. Excessive weakness of the yen is not favourable. We maintain our basic stance that we will deal with it in
a timely and appropriate manner,'' he told a news conference.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980105/mof_says_worried_ove_1.html

At the current rate of decent we will be at 275 by Midnight and 270 for Breakfast.

Whoops, 281?

Selby: I'm not sure I would agree that gold below $300 would seem reasonable and proper even ex post facto. More an example of overshoot at market extremes. ..... a lesson I won't soon forget. ...... Rational markets? My @ss.

http://www.economeister.com/news/1998_01/05/140800mo.htm But then I talked to yet another customer today whose manufacturing plant moved down to sunny Mexico last month. I figure that the only growth industry that is booming nowadays is the printing presses for OSHA and EEOC regs. And 1.6 gallon toilet tank manufacturing. %^ )

That is what I was thinking, It would be a logical thing for them to do. They got to make a buck too.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980105/asian_gold_takes_bre_1.html

Earl: I had $275 as my target with 25 extra as an overshoot. The over shoot included the fact that nobody knows--or isn't telling--what the average cost of the stuff is. So given the hysteria that follows and preceeds gold an overshoot is reasonable. That by itself is no reason to believe anything of course.

I got 3 of those SOBs. 1.5 Gal, and it is suppose to save H2O - you have to flush them 3 X's.

I should have invested in the trucking or the moving companies that are moving everything out of the US.

My trading experiences indicate $255-$265.....but, based on a strong intuitive feeling, gold's low occurs between tonight and Thursday night , and, to me, it's a matter of what incalculable, illogical damage can be inflicted upon it, intensely, in this short period of time. Very vulnerable and susceptible to an oversell, spiked chart.

One reason for the dollars rise is that European CB's appear to be buying US T's as fast as Asians are dumping them. ( Barron's ) In the short term, to support the European export markets. Given Rubin's stand, I suspect that European CB buying of US T's was part of the deal struck during the New Year's meetings.

Now for the unintended consequences:

a ) Asian currency falls result in cheaper exports to the US, which compete with European exports, resulting in downward pressure in consumer prices and profits in the US
b ) Asian loans to be repaid with more expensive dollars, therefore increasing the chances of defaults. European banks have at least $39 billion loaned out and coming due in two months.
c ) Higher Asian prices for commodity prices such as oil and base metals, dampening demand, and fueling deflation here and abroad
d ) Higher export prices for US goods to Asian and European countries, decreasing pricing power and profits

The game finally ends in wholesale deflation when the US economy slows down, which the decrease in construction spending suggests may already be occurring. We might have to wait for first quarter earnings projections to start coming out in the next few weeks.

Gold now trading at One ounce = 2 Hong Kong chickens.....

Dead or alive??

Does anyone have a take on what they will do or what they mean by
"will deal with it"? What do they have up their sleeves. It sounds threatening. Do they own enough T-bills to swamp the market to the point that the europeans will refuse to vacuum them all up and thus leave us holding the bag? Please explain.


TOKYO, Jan 6 ( Reuters ) - Finance Minister Hiroshi Mitsuzuka said on

Tuesday he is worried about the current state of the yen and the ministry
maintains its basic stance that it WILL DEAL WITH IT in a timely and appropriate manner.

I'm sitting here hoping like most of the other lurkers for 250-260 to double up. Fat chance.

And an ounce of silver won't even buy you a drumstick....

Always remember: More debt is not stronger debt; it is weaker debt.

Could someone please provide me the url for the overseas markets. I lost all my bookmarks and can't remember where the site is. Also Schippi's Fidelity Sector site at geocities. TIA.

Unbelievably, the decline in the Asian currencies appears to be getting steeper!! Indonesia down 14%, Korea down 10%, Thailand down 8%, Malaysia and Taiwan both down 3%. And the night is still young. If this doesn't reverse, this will be the largest decline in the currency of the average gold buyer in the 2-years for which I have data. A brutal day for gold appears to be ahead.

Hard as it is to believe, with the decline in the various currencies, the price of gold in the "world gold currency" is currently quite high relative to its typical level since early 1996. It is now about 4% above its price at the beginning of 1996 ( 7% was the highest, -7% was the lowest ) . +4% is rare. -4% is more typical for 1997. If we hit -7% with the currencies at their current level, the US$ gold price will approach $250.

It's amusing to see what a seven dollar drop in the AU price does to the average investor...pessimism, resignation, despair, and capitulation resonate throughout this forum...gold speculators are so beaten down that a simple little "boo" sends sheer panic into their very being. Absolutely nothing fundamentally changed today to warrant goldbug capitulation. Greenspan talked of deflation...he's done so numerous times in the past. Some Asians are selling gold...they do so every now and then. Big F__ing Deal!

Bottom line is this fellas: throw out your technical charts and your fundamental analysis...gold's ultimately scintillating rise is predicated upon three events which are simply unpredictable: either equity, bond, or dollar collapse ( or varied permutations of these events ) .

It could happen tomorrow...or in a month...or in a year...that it will happen is inevitable given the over-inflation of Amercian financial markets. If you don't have staying power ( the financial ability to hold a non-performing asset indefinitely ) , then you shouldn't be in this game.
Go home and sew a sweater for your grandma.

WHen the "New Paradigm" myth collapses, today's "huge" seven dollar drop will seem like a joke measured against the double digit dollar leaps that will occur upon a daily basis. Gold remains the only pandemic, alternative asset to the American buck. People will hand you bushels of dollars for your universal assets. End of Story. In one year, you stand to make back what you failed to earn over a decade ( Thank God I was alive to witness the last great Gold rocket back in the early '80's ) .

The cynicism and gloating of the Karlitos and the Large Green Boogers is irksome...but it is the understandable character trait of victors over the vanquished. They sense your futility, defeat, and fear...and they feast on it. Turn it around...feel the power of your understanding and your immutable self-confidence. Make the Shorty McGee's of the world nervous ( and God knows, they should be! ) .

Stop whining, fellas...tomorrow's another day. CHANGE THE PERCEPTION! ( But first, go out and write yourself a nice little poem ) .

It's amusing to see what a seven dollar drop in the AU price does to the average investor...pessimism, resignation, despair, and capitulation resonate throughout this forum...gold speculators are so beaten down that a simple little "boo" sends sheer panic into their very being. Absolutely nothing fundamentally changed today to warrant goldbug capitulation. Greenspan talked of deflation...he's done so numerous times in the past. Some Asians are selling gold...they do so every now and then. Big F__ing Deal!

Bottom line is this fellas: throw out your technical charts and your fundamental analysis...gold's ultimately scintillating rise is predicated upon three events which are simply unpredictable: either equity, bond, or dollar collapse ( or varied permutations of these events ) .

It could happen tomorrow...or in a month...or in a year...that it will happen is inevitable given the over-inflation of Amercian financial markets. If you don't have staying power ( the financial ability to hold a non-performing asset indefinitely ) , then you shouldn't be in this game.
Go home and sew a sweater for your grandma.

WHen the "New Paradigm" myth collapses, today's "huge" seven dollar drop will seem like a joke measured against the double digit dollar leaps that will occur upon a daily basis. Gold remains the only pandemic, alternative asset to the American buck. People will hand you bushels of dollars for your universal assets. End of Story. In one year, you stand to make back what you failed to earn over a decade ( Thank God I was alive to witness the last great Gold rocket back in the early '80's ) .

The cynicism and gloating of the Karlitos and the Large Green Boogers is irksome...but it is the understandable character trait of victors over the vanquished. They sense your futility, defeat, and fear...and they feast on it. Turn it around...feel the power of your understanding and your immutable self-confidence. Make the Shorty McGee's of the world nervous ( and God knows, they should be! ) .

Stop whining, fellas...tomorrow's another day. CHANGE THE PERCEPTION! ( But first, go out and write yourself a nice little poem ) .

It's amusing to see what a seven dollar drop in the AU price does to the average investor...pessimism, resignation, despair, and capitulation resonate throughout this forum...gold speculators are so beaten down that a simple little "boo" sends sheer panic into their very being. Absolutely nothing fundamentally changed today to warrant goldbug capitulation. Greenspan talked of deflation...he's done so numerous times in the past. Some Asians are selling gold...they do so every now and then. Big F__ing Deal!

Bottom line is this fellas: throw out your technical charts and your fundamental analysis...gold's ultimately scintillating rise is predicated upon three events which are simply unpredictable: either equity, bond, or dollar collapse ( or varied permutations of these events ) .

It could happen tomorrow...or in a month...or in a year...that it will happen is inevitable given the over-inflation of Amercian financial markets. If you don't have staying power ( the financial ability to hold a non-performing asset indefinitely ) , then you shouldn't be in this game.
Go home and knit a sweater for your grandma.

WHen the "New Paradigm" myth collapses, today's "huge" seven dollar drop will seem like a joke measured against the double digit dollar leaps that will occur upon a daily basis. Gold remains the only pandemic, alternative asset to the American buck. People will hand you bushels of dollars for your universal assets. End of Story. In one year, you stand to make back what you failed to earn over a decade ( Thank God I was alive to witness the last great Gold rocket back in the early '80's ) .

The cynicism and gloating of the Karlitos and the Large Green Boogers is irksome...but it is the understandable character trait of victors over the vanquished. They sense your futility, defeat, and fear...and they feast on it. Turn it around...feel the power of your understanding and your immutable self-confidence. Make the Shorty McGee's of the world nervous ( and God knows, they should be! ) .

Stop whining, fellas...tomorrow's another day. CHANGE THE PERCEPTION! ( But first, go out and write yourself a nice little poem ) .

Hi

I really liked your post of 20:29.

You just showed that US$ is going down, means gold is going up.

After having 2 shots of vodka ( I don't drink scoth or whiskey,
don't like its taste ) , I predict that gold will go down to $265-270,
then pause for a couple of days, then up to $345-350 within
2-3 months period. This is what I think A.G. can afford for now.

Prediction is made under slight influence, so please disregard it...

O/S markets: http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

This paper market insanity is handing us once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunities.
All-just stop and think! We are not talking about making 20-30% on our investments once this bubble bursts. The deals out there are unreal!!!
For instance, Durban Deep, a SA company, producing over 1,000,000 oz AU now and gearing to produce 2,500,000 by end of 1999 has a market cap of $70 million!!! This company's share are at $1.50. When gold was once at $500 these shares were at $50 and the company was producing only 250,000 oz AU. This kind of undervaluation is more of an insanity than DOW at 8,000 or 15,000. Pick up the gifts and wait. You all know in your guts what is coming.
Miro, selling gold shares now, after 1929 type-crash in AU shares and switching to paper mutual funds is what I would call "blinking". You will crash twice and miss the bull.
The gold shares can not go down much further, except for some North American blue chips, such as PDG,ABX, HM, etc., even if gold dips to $250 ( which I do not believe.The bottom is $278-$280 ) .
The paper game may go on for few more days, perhaps months, however, it is about to end. Anyone who is thinking of throwing a towel in now, please go and re-read financial news just months and days prior to the greatest gold bull run in history. The gold news then was a lot more negative than it is now.
The world's financial system is nearing a catastrophe that will burn up trillions of paper profits. Even AG does not know if we are going to go down through a deflationary or inflationary crash. These bastards unleashed a monster that no one can control.
Be steady, buy gold but especially shares of gold companies that are on fire sale. It will bring you returns that are worth waiting for. Go back and check to see that many gold producers's market cap increased 2,000-3000% between '76-'80.
Remember that any bull tries to shake off as many inverstors as it can before it charges!!!

farfel:

Very inspirational. You're on a roll. Don't stop now.

Whiles I bitch, I buy. Don't worry for me, be happy for me. Thanks.

Golden Boy, go to http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

It would be curiuos to know if the volume has picked up on bullion buying and also if delivery time is getting further out! Would appreciate any enlightenment on the issue.

DJ & ALL: You would think that with the huge declines in the local currencies Gold would be getting hammered but it's not, down only .20
Is everyone waiting for Comex to do their selling?
Call me dumb but shouldn't these Asians be selling their currencies and buying Gold ( or US dollars ) to protect their savings???
Their money may end up in the international scrapheap of failed currencies.
And how much Gold will korea really end up confiscating from their constituents in the end - not a whole lot in the grand scheme of things.
The rhetoric on Gold is getting louder from all sides, but thats what I think im hearing, rhetoric.
In the meantime, im shipping some chickens to Hongkong........

EB:

World domination through control of the media. How appropos.

Personally, I liked Goldfinger much better.

One more time to the edge of the abyss. The Asian currencies are approaching 0. How can it be that the wink has not been lost. Perhaps it is fate. Perhaps this junk really is worth something afterall.

On the topic of silver, I must again warn you against any foolish ventures betting on the downside. There are two large forces at play. The long army has just woken up and is taking on the short army. The long army has more soldiers. The battle is joined.

Thanks for the address. I owe you one.

Here's a thought. Gold is not in any big hurry to get to 250. It looks to me maybe 270 by the middle of the month, a little rally and test the lows again and the the beat goes on. I hope for all investors that it bottoms out soon or the small exploration companies and many mining companies are in deep trouble but maybe that what some of the big boys want.

Good investing in '98.

Also hot off the wire: 1oz gold = 2 Hong Chickens or 1/2 an LGB. Heh, heh........ 'n the chickens are moving fast.

Buy some for me, Bro![:- )

selling U.S. treasuries and buying all the gold you can get your hands on. If you do that the Yen will recover, no problem.



The BOJ is believed to have stepped in to sell dollars at around 134.20 yen. It later sold dollars intermittently below 134 yen, dealers said.

``The dollar briefly fell below 133 yen after BOJ intervention. But the dollar quickly recovered by about one yen from the low as Japanese
importers and life insurers bought dollars aggressively,'' said a manager at a Japanese trust bank.

``More intervention would only result in more of the same. Dollar demand is just overwhelming,'' he added.

Comments by Finance Minister Hiroshi Mitsuzuka expressing concerns about the yen's weakness were largely ignored by the market, dealers
said.

``There is no doubt that we are worried. Excessive weakness of the yen is not favourable,'' Mitsuzuka told a news conference.

The dollar stood at around 133.40/50 yen as of 0300 GMT, compared with Monday's New York close of 133.48/58 yen.

Weakness in other Asian currencies was of no help to the yen, dealers said.

``Asian currencies are weak across the board. The dollar's safe-haven status remains intact as there is a strong 'sell Asia' mood,'' said a dealer at
a city bank.

The Indonesian rupiah fell to a new low of 7,600 to the dollar on Tuesday, after opening at 7,000/7,200.

The Philippine peso fell, breaching the first volatility band of 44.356 to the dollar, compared with the previous close of 42.65. The Philippine
central bank earlier intervened to sell $1.5 million at the rate of 44.35 pesos.

The Thai baht also plunged to a new low of 52.00 to the dollar in the onshore market, compared with 50.00/50.20 late on Monday. It fell to
52.00/52.20 in the offshore market from 49.85/50.35 on late Monday.

The Korean won was also slightly weaker. The won stood around 1,805.0/1,810.0, compared with Monday's close of 1,780.

The Australian dollar was also dragged lower on weakness of the yen and Southeast Asian currencies.

The Aussie briefly fell to around US$0.6352, its lowest level since December 1996, compared with US$0.6480/85 late on Monday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980105/markets_asia_1.html

Thanks.

Your wish has always been my command. And that, sir, will remain the same....now where did I put those "Sundries" checks? Keep lookin' over yer shoulder...I sent crazy Haggis after you. Happy New Year!!!!

DJ ( Bloodbath worsens!! ) : You may have a reliable system there. So far it has been difficult to argue with. ..... Damn!

If you go here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currency/curr.cgi?num=7?w_tkc=USD&usr_tkc=USD&d_list=2

you will see that all the Asian currencies are up tonight.

I cant figure this market out, but dont count out the asians who's currencies are freefalling from jumping into gold as fast as they can ?

What many of us fail to realize is we right now are making history and it
could very well be that 1998 will be as talked about as 1929. The purchase of gold will not be remembered as a great short term trade but
rather a lifeline from a sinking ship. Gold to me is a form of monetary
insurance against unforseen events that could alter our lifesyles over
night. Many have laughed at me regarding my bearish economic forcasts
however to date I have not seen any reason to soften my views and in fact
it seems to me that we are digging ourselves in deeper. Three quarters of
American and Canadian families are three paycheques from bankruptcy. How
can one have faith in a system that would allow this form of economic
chaos to spread so far? The fabric of the family unit is at best strained
as a result of current economics within the family settings. So where do we go from here? Back to basics is where I am headed,debt free and enough
gold to sleep at nights. How close are you to bankruptcy? A question you
may want to answer in front of the mirror tonight!

Everytime I hear an Ozzie brogue, I'll run for cover. You had best put your money in gold stocks instead of bullion. IMO

Steady: What say you about Platinum? It's at $354 tonite and seems unable to sustain even a decent hold on upmovement in recent weeks. What is the lowest price you see for Platinum in your crystal ball?

The only Yank crazy enough to go to the big K is Seinfeld's Kramer. Haggis will know what I mean. I've heard you can lose yourself in those little huts with "girls" standing in front. Many guys never seen again.

MoReGold - I try not to use logic. I tried that before and it only got me in trouble. Now I just watch the charts. The correlation between the currencies of gold buyers and the price of gold in US$ is very high and continuing. I use it.

Earl - Yes, it does seem reliable. I finally stumbled on this method just before the last rally started. It helped me decide to exit all gold positions close to the peak. I must admit, its nice to be sitting out one of these declines, for a change. My only worry is that other factors such as a shortage of the physical will cause gold to diverge from the currencies and I will miss out on the start of the major turn around. For this reason I am looking into the feasibility of shorting the appropriate currencies at the same time I buy back into gold. This should give me an effective hedge against further weakening of the currencies, but will allow me to participate in rallies due to other gold-related factors.

CJnOZ....that act would be in violation of the Hoffman Treatise of 1984, which I signed along with CJIInOK.

Hatt-man...you were raised right. Good solid advice re: debt and gold quart jar. Thanks.

These are average Gold prices for the months indicated from Kitco.

Jan 80 $675 to Jun 82 $315 29 mo. -49%

Feb 83 $492 to Feb 85 $299 25 mo. -39%

Jan 88 $477 to Sep 89 $362 21 mo. -24%

Feb 90 $417 to Jan 93 $329 35 mo. -21%

Feb 96 $400 to Jan 98 $281 24 mo. -30% still going?

In the USA we all know what a depression is. Since the 30's The brain washing has been intense. Although we are bankrupt AG & RR will run the press 24 hrs. A day until every guy in Mongolia thinks he has enough $100 bills to buy a house in the USA.

there once was a fellow named farfel
whose rhymes sometimes arful
but his last was a letter
that made me feel so much better
now ill go buy me a car full

LGB,farfel,et al....will you still post with such verv and panach when the spit hits YOUR fan or will you hibernate to another site? What goes around..etc..I'm in need of your positive feedback on shorts and longs! HELP! A lesser man would hound your ultimate defeat in every post he made after your fall.Your fiend BILL, the idiot investor.BOO.

Report in uniform for tomorrow's "Rumble in the Big Apple".

South China Morning Post
Tuesday, Jan 6, 1998

Sakakibara, the vice-finance minister for international affairs, is scheduled to visit Europe and the US this week. Investors and traders are concerned the trip may result in the central banks of
the US and European countries joining the Bank of Japan in selling dollars. The Japanese central bank has so far acted alone.

The Bank of Japan last month sold about US$10 billion when the dollar topped 131 yen. "Traders are cautious that the Bank of Japan may
step into the market again to stem the dollar's rise because [it] is now hovering way above the level that the Bank of Japan intervened last time," a Sanwa Bank foreign exchange manager said.

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19980106011714130?=mar&template=Mar_Article.htx&maxfieldsize=2770

"The dollar will possibly top 140 yen by June as intervention alone cannot change the recent weak yen trend."

Chartists said dollar-yen might find resistance at the May 1992 top of 133.7 before the April 1992 peak of 135.

My golden associates...I know that most of you think I am some poeticizing crackpot from outerspace...the weirdo who writes the poetry.
"Why do I write poetry?" Because, for me personally, it eliminates the fear that awakens you all in the middle of the night. It amuses me and , in doing so, it steadies my nerves and sharpens my analysis.

I learned a long time ago that market gains were determined largely by the person who maintains the most self-confidence during the storm -- either the seller or the buyer. It requires that you expunge emotion from intellect because, in the market, emotion always defeats you.

Even more importantly, one must create a perception in the mind of your
antagonist. For those of you who belittle my, "CHANGE THE PERCEPTION!"
slogan, I suggest you all see the brand new film, "WAG THE DOG," starring Dustin Hoffman. From that film, you will learn that perceptions do in fact create tangible realities.

Right now, the New Paradigm disciples have been most effective in utilizing propaganda to create a new perception and, ergo, a new reality in our world. In the face of substantive annual gold and silver production shortfalls relative to aggregate global demand, the N.P. disciples have managed to focus CB and media attention on everything except that particular fact. The N.P. disciples have managed to create a new, self-serving reality for the average gold investor and the global public at large.

Remember...it is possible to spin a single event in radically antithetical points of view. One can either see the glass as half-full or half-empty. For example, when Bre-X collapsed, one spin would suggest that the event was great for gold...after all, 100,000,000 ounces of gold
suddenly disappeared from the face of the Earth. If that particular spin
had predominated, then gold would have shot up in value.

Unfortunately, the N.P. disciples, recognizing the power of media and propaganda, immediately spun the event as a major negative for gold, i.e., "gold mining industry is filled with liars...you can't trust any of the corporate balance sheets...filled with accounting fabrications and lies...there are probably at least another 100 Bre-X's out there waiting to be discovered. The sooner you empty your vaults of gold and sell all your gold investments, then the sooner you will be able to have nothing further to do with gold industry vermin. Thereafter, you can invest with us in our safe, profitable stock and bond mutual funds and sleep with peace of mind."

How did the gold mining industry react to this negative spin? Answer: they didn't...they sat on their hands, offered a few lame reactions via the most ineffective propanda machine in the world ( namely, the World Gold Council ) , thereby allowing the N.P disciples to be the proactive figures in the entire spin. And N.P. certainly won!

My golden associates...I have spoken to several chairmen of the largest gold companies in the world...I have implored them to "CHANGE THE PERCEPTION" or lose the great Holy war between gold and the New Paradigm. Although some are intrigued, they continue to do things "the old fashioned way" -- in other words, the industry remains reactive instead of pro-active. Unfortunately, whereas Wall Street has managed to enlist many high-powered intellects in aid of its N.P. mission, the gold mining industry remains essentially anti-intellectual. That is truly a major liability in the Information Age we live in. Therefore, it is very important that many more of you join together to "CHANGE THE PERCEPTION." Gold investors and industry participants would have influence in numbers...it is difficult for a single individual or company to do it alone. SHow up at the annual meetings and raise a holler!

I have said in the past that the cost of opening one gold mine could be used instead to fuel a major propaganda effort on behalf of gold. High powered intellectuals and/or financial salesman could be hired to pepper
the CB's and media with a plethora of compelling reasons for holding gold as a reserve. Moreover, funds could be utilized to co-opt major media outlets to disseminate pro-gold messages on a continuous basis.

The industry does not need another gold mine right now...it needs effective propaganda and perception-altering salesmanship!!!

it was HOT.

Date: Mon Jan 05 1998 23:54
farfel ( THE GOSPEL OF GOLD ACCORDING TO FARFEL!!! ) ID#28585:

Is it better to buy gold shares then to sell? That is the question. If I should sell now, I would be taken a big loss. If I should buy.... Agh, It does'nt matter anyway I have no money left after spending it on gold shares before they collapsed. I need a drink!!