Their confusion extended to prices as well. Both assumed that if an article cost $1.00 in 1960, and $1.00 in 1980, that its price had remained the same. Yet, in 1960 that number 1.00 on a price tag referred to about .78 ounces of silver. To what did it refer in 1980?

To no thing at all. To compare prices, the substance exchanged for the goods must be the same, and denominated in the same units; anything else is comparing apples and oranges. It is worse: it is comparing apples with pieces of paper marked oranges!

But neither man ever became aware of the rather obvious fact that you cannot make comparisons of price with a monetary standard by which to measure.

It is agreed: money talks, but what modern money says is a lie. It says that large numbers on checks today constitute more money than the smaller numbers of a few decades ago, which has not been true since money ceased to be a things.
All Work and No Pay,Paul Hein, M.D.

By being affiliated to possibly the world's largest NET DEBTOR country which is the US does not solve the problems at all. Asian have to solve their own problems TOGETHER. Nothing less than a Summit of Heads of Governments is necessary. Circumstances will force upon such a unity ( otherwise, one by one, even Asian countries with large foreign reserves, will reel under currency attacks followed by PROLONGED economic recession ) . Imagine the impact on the currency market the moment Japan, China-Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore SIMULTANEOUSLY announce to withdraw a substantial portion of their assets in US and Europe, and inject them into Asia. Asia knows restoring confidence in the forex market is its No.1 priority. What is it waiting for? Recession in each and every country in Asia, and a prolonged one? Why should, probably, the world's biggest creditor continent ( ie Asia ) be short of liquidity??? Why should Asia "lend" money ( by buying US$ or US assets ) to US who in turn "relends" this money to Asia through- IMF on its own agenda??? Why should Asia's troubled economies accede to US-controlled IMF's terms, but not those on Asian donors' agenda ( which are likely to have more of Asian interests at heart ) ? Of course, Asia's troubled nations have to be realistic and serious about major reforms in their own economies. Why should Asia always produces, and US consumes ( worse still, on Asia monies ) ? Should we not be focusing on our own domestic consumption? --- Asian should : "Ask not what US or Europe or IMF can do for you. Ask what you can do for yourself ( COLLECTIVELY ) ." Message from: Won of Korea.

Newton
Hey, I'll be up in the crow's nest.
Testing out my 45 weather balloons and several tanks of helium.

Just like in this story.
http://winning.co.za/day2day/humourus/darwin.htm
WINNER FOR 1997

Just hope I don't get blown over Russia.
Or Europe, or Latin America, or Asia, or China.
Even England or USA.

Golly Gosh, I betta head for the hills of deep NZ.
They still trade in greenstone and pauas.

ps: my funny money's in SPX700's puts.
Just like tax it goes in monthly.
They jump around a lot.
I've seen them go from $40 to $2000 in Oct.
Gee whiz, if we crashed to Sp550
I think I'd buy a beach hut and go fishin.
And buy lots of my precious.

especially liked The Hatt ( 19.29 and 23.23 ) and steady at 22.46. Hope I
didn't miss too many other good ones ! It just seems to me as a novice investor that some tremendous changes are right upon us.

For months now, we keep asking who are these big sellers of Gold that have the ability to move the commodity down like they did yesterday? Did you sell, I didnt?
I cant believe I am investing in something that no one has any idea as to how, what, when and where it is traded. Think about it! Why in the world do we follow this stuff so blindly. We know more about Slicks bent thingy than we know about Gold. Are they emptying Fort Knox or what?

The entire world is sitting around wondering:
Are the Asians selling our bonds or not?
How many US$ are there - really?
What is it inflation or deflation?
Who is selling Gold?
Who is buying all of this Gold they are
selling?

Why do we put up with all of this miss-information, lies and market manipulation? Can the untrue ever become fact - it is beginning to look that way but I think not. It is only a matter of time till the truth always surfaces.

AND,
Why all the concern for the environment, is the problem bigger than we have been told or are they just trying prolong Oils life. The Auto industry thinks so.

Just wondering.

Looks like the Asian shares are starting to attract the vultures.
Australian Resource shares are looking extremely interesting also.
The market is quite deceptive at the moment. For all the parts of the
market that are grossly overvalued, there are parts that are very
oversold, gold included??

BREAKING STORIES:

$A on floor as Asian crisis bites
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980107/pageone/pageone1.html

Price rises to hit rich and poor
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980107/pageone/pageone2.html

Ominous signs ignored
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980107/pageone/pageone6.html

Seoul fights off collapse, Thais beg for mercy
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980107/world/world1.html

Just what is the IMF anyway, and does it get it right?
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980107/world/world2.html

Tough times spark market riots
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980107/world/world5.html

A$ falls to 11 year low
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980107/market/markets1.html

Bank of England considers fine-tuning rates
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980107/world/world3.html

IN REVIEW

Pressure on Jakarta to defy IMF on cuts
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980105/pageone/pageone11.html

Seoul, Bangkok face $178bn payout - European Banks flushed out?
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980105/world/world1.html

Morons in the Australian Tax Office
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980105/news/news1.html

Greenspan brings new life to debate on deflation
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980105/world/world3.html

US Dollar demand sends Asian currencies plunging
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980105/asia_currencies_1.html

Rubin defends Asian Bailouts
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/980105/business/stories/asia_1.html

Taiwan Dollar under attack
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980105/taiwan_markets_pictu_1.html

Soros to do Korea over again - softened up for the kill
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980105/korea_soros_picture_1.html

Deflation fears take bonds back to the 60s
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980106/business/business1.html

GREENSPAN DEFLATION SPEECH: Problems of Price Measurement
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980106/verbatim/verbatim1.html

Bonds plummet as deflation fears rise
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980106/market/markets2.html

Asia leads to crisis of confidence
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980106/news/news1.html

The Big Currency traders arent so smart
http://www.businessweek.com/premium/02/b3560228.htm

The Year of the Tiger could be a killer
http://www.businessweek.com/premium/02/b3560287.htm

Financial breakdown means it's time to reassess IMF role - By George Soros
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980103/world/world1.html

The Maverick - Although there seems to be a very tired bull market in the US,
a sustained correction may yet be some time away, writes Gerry van Wyngen.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980103/market/markets4.html

Getting burned by your Company Share Scheme
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971231/news/news1.html

After 15 years the bulls are looking for a break
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971230/invest/ivsuper.html

Big Americans take shine to Australian gold
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971229/invest/invest2.html

Cashed-up firms swoop on Asia
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971229/world/world1.html

Reproducing the 1930s
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971227/world/world1.html

Japanese Banks not out of the woods
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19971226233505010?=biz&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=3318

How Alan Greenspan saved the world
http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/margolis.html

A CHAT WITH THE IMF'S CAMDESSUS
( See, nothing to worry about! Or is there? )
http://www.businessweek.com/1997/52/b3559175.htm

Mid Level Officials lobbying for Chinese Devaluation!
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971219/world/wwashington.html

BOOKMARK Steves News Page:
( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/blizard.htm

http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets

Looks like Australia is one of the few countries not to have a red
ink day. We'll see what happens tomorrow!

about 12.45 am on Wednesday, Thanks for your posts to the other
newslinks. I have a sister who lives in Armadale with her family.

THANKS for humourous review of the best layed plan, etc., & now for the dark side !
Did you catch the article in BARRONS of 3 weeks ago where it was speculated that in a real down draft the brokerages on wallstreet would not be able to settle the pot on option exposure due to extreme leverage. I can send you the reference if you desire it.
I know we don't have enough to worry\ speculate about, but gezzzzz, what's that like ???, winning the Irish Sweepstakes & finding out that only lepricons are eligible to win !
Also, thanks for mad money thoughts.
S.O.S.
Tar Baby

In mid December the Summation index bottomed below the -2000 level on my Gold Issues McClellan Summation Index. These level are associated with major bear market bottoms. I would now be looking for a +2000 level by mid May for confirmation of a new bull phase.

In the meantime, the oscillator cracked +150 a couple of days ago. This indicates an enormous thrust that we have not seen in the three years for which I have data on these mining issues. So far, so good. The rubber band is now stretched out to the upside and consolidation should be necessary here.

I keep track of a 13 week rate of change in gold prices. It is now at -15%. This is EXTREMELY OVERSOLD.

The new lows in mining issues have dried up in Toronto. I like to see less than six new lows for a week or two. If the market corrects ( as it is ) with less than six new lows each day, this would signal a bottom is behind us. ( we have had less than six new lows for the last three days )

As always, focus on observation, not prediction.

AVALON: It is actually 11.45pm, & I am ready to shut down for the
night. With this baby, I cannot do the morning shift anymore on
Kitco. So I have to just limit it to the newslinks, & the occasional
post. But keep it up! We are now three hours behind Sydney. They
advance one hour during the summer for "daylight saving". I am glad
we don't have it. My time clock isn't thrown out each year. Anyhow,
it fades the curtains! Armadale is about 25 minutes south east of
where we live, near the centre of Perth city, not far from the
Airport.

Davos, CH...2000 of the most powerful bankers, businessmen, labor
leaders, government leaders, who will be wired, via WELCOM, to whomever
else they may need to 'chat' with...

Christmas cards ( from Vermont fer christ sakes ) still trickling in ( mailed mid-December ) ....PATHETIC!!...They can stick their strike up their arse-hole where it belongs...Sharefin: Still on Titanic bridge---will go down with the 'ship'....go team gold!!

George Orwell ( 1903-50 ) held strong views about what he perceived to be a modern trend to replace Anglo-Saxon words by classical ones. He writes in his essay Politics and the English Language ( 1946 ) :

"I am going to translate a passage of good English into modern English of the worst sort. Here is a well known verse from Ecclesiates:

I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all.

Here it is in Modern English

Objective consideration of contemporary phenomena compels the conclusion that success or failure in competitive activities exhibits no tendency to be commensurate with innate capacity, but that a considerable element of the unpredictable must inevitably be taken into account. "

All:

There has been much talk of late of the possibility of global financial collapse and the attendant deflationary spiral that would ensue. This is the biggest fakeout the markets have seen since the predictions of $2000 gold and $100 oil back in the early 80's. What we are seeing is the grand finally of the disinflationary forces which have been with us for the last 17 years. Cycles of this magnitude end with near unanimous opinion on future expectations that under analysis are simply false. There is a great tendancy to view market prices as harbingers of things to come when it is peoples perceptions of things to come which are setting market prices. In these extremal circumstances markets head for 'clearing' prices where the analysis becomes so plain and simple that the few will take on the many.

The previous watermark in this cycle occured during the early 1990's when the US was going through the savings and loan debacle. At that time global growth rates were at a low for the cycle with all three of the major economic areas ( Americas, Europe, Asia ) either near or in recession. The dollar was a weaker currency, and the price of commodities denominated in dollars was lower than today. There was some talk of global recession ( which was true ) but nothing close to today's calamatous call for a deflationary death spiral. In contrast, 1997 saw the strongest world GDP growth since the late 80's with recoveries taking firm hold throughout Europe, and a continuation of robust growth in the US. For all the doom and gloom associated with Japan, that country will still have positive economic growth for 1997.

What of things to come? In the face of above trend growth in the US and Europe we are presented with exceedingly easy monetary policy. The causes for this have been political. Europe, in its mad drive towards EMU has run policies of fiscal 'tightness' ( if you could call budget deficits of 3% of GDP tight ) and monetary ease. Look what has happened to interest rates across Europe in the last 2 years. Short rates that were approaching double digits are now in the 3-4 percent range. Long rates have dropped a similar amount. An accelerating economy, combined with easy money and a soft currency hardly seems like the recipe for a deflationary collapse. In fact, taken at face value, any economist in the world would come up with the exact opposite forcast.

In the US we have a similar set of circumstances. The strongest employment situation in 30 years, rapidly rising asset prices, and a surging money supply are not inputs for deflation. The only thing arguing for deflation is the strong dollar. The strength in the dollar is however mostly against currencies with which we do little business. The export sector of the US accounts for around 10% of GDP. Similarly, SE Asia takes about 13% of our exports. Thus a little over 1% of GDP is at risk in the worst case analysis where exports go to zero. Balancing this out has been a gigantic decline in interest rates, lowering debt service costs and radically changing capital costs for new proects.

The last and best hope for a deflationary collapse must then come from Asia. The mechanism of the collapse is to be a rolling liquidity squeeze where the worldwide banking system is brought to its knees. How can this happen? Banks are regulated by governments, and are subject to minimum capital requirements. This means that they must maintain some positive cash balance against their outstanding loans as a reserve against loan defaults. The fear is that the defaults of loans in Southeast Asia will cause banks to become insolvent thus triggering a chain reaction of closures. The question then becomes is this event probable, possible or impossible. In a system where debt is denominated in fiat currency, the answer is impossible unless the monetary authorities are hell bent on suicide. The simple remedy for what ails the banking system is the pure and simple creation of money. By simply creating money and giving it to insolvent banks to replace their bad loans the problem is over. What is currently going on is the allocation of pain and the realization that the moral hazzard problem of banks being indemnified against all risk must be addressed. In this process the banks will be made to pay somewhat for their mistakes as will the borrowers of the money. However, the entire system will not be sacrificed to prove a point.

Once it becomes clear that the Asian problems are going to be papered over, attention will focus upon the massive amounts of paper being created from thin air. It is this massive amount of fresh ammo which is giving the illusion of deflationary expectations through the bidding up of the bond asset class. This competition for a 'safe' asset is causing people to come up with a thesis as to why bond rates should be so low. Because there is no real economic reason for the rate decline, one has to be invented. Economists would be hard pressed to say that bonds are going higher because the debt is being monetized but that's it in a nutshell. The 'safe' bonds will turn out to be just as 'safe' as gold and oil were at the begining of the prior decade.

Newtron
If I won the lottery and the house folded.
Do you think I could swap them with my bank?
Bad debt for more bad debt.
And I thought they were FDIC insured.
Even if they are only funny money.
Just a paper promise for a paper promise.

Southeast Asian Cuurencies Begin 1998 SHARPLY DOWN! Rumors are flying that the Chinese Yuan ( Renminbi ) is close to devaluation. This would precipitate greater falls in the already devastated SE Asian currencies.

Malaysian, Indonesian & Thailand Currencies Plummeting... AGAIN

Monday, 6 January 1998: Southeast Asian Markets Continue to be POUNDED DOWN:
Nikkei DOWN 0.4%, Hong Kong DOWN 1.6%, Malaysia DOWN 3.9%, Singapore DOWN 3.8%, the Philippines DOWN 2.8%, Taiwan DOWN 0.8% & Indonesia DOWN 2.1% - THE DOMINOS CONTINUE TO FALL.

John Kutyn is undoubtedly one of last years most brilliant and perceptive analysts on the Domino Effect sweeping through Southeast Asia. His insightful take on currency chaos and stock market turmoil paint a grim picture of what the new year holds for the countries of that area... indeed what the ramifications are for the rest of the world. Following are a few of his random thoughts on the region. Additionally, he shares his opinion of the precarious condition of the Japanese Banking System, and what we might brace ourselves for in 1998.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/kutyn010198.html

Sharefin: As I recall, the crew went first -- not particularly honorable -- but the captain went down with the ship. I wonder -- how many volunteers to stay with the ship this time? If market operators/insiders are like the crew, I doubt many will offer to stay on board! In fact, I bet they will leave before the iceberg hits!

Any commments on what the OldMan said on Avid? It is very unusual for him to make any long term comments, since he is a day trader. For him to say depression in 12 months means he expects a major market downturn very soon. I wonder -- why the sudden about face?

I am at a loss to decide what to do with my gold investments. Bailed out mostly yesterday. Mike Stewart thinks we are at or very near a bottom in gold/gold stocks- he seems very competent. The problem is that during a deflationary crash, all equities will get hit.

My assessment is that the gold/gold equities will not rally until the dollar is hit fairly hard. If the dollar drops fairly slowly, gold equities will do fairly well. But -- if the dollar drops 10% in two days, the clock will start ticking for a crash.

Who said that surfing the Gold bug Tsunami would be easy?

I nominate LGB, EB and Karlito99.

Btw, WHERE are they today? ( grin )

I'm right here as always, reading about the best economic conditions of all time be described as the worst economic conditions of all time, and laughing at the Gloom and Doom GoldBug world view as always..... You guy's always brighten my morning with your humor...

I suppose ??? the SBIC would cover you for the first $100 K, but the big bucks would be spilt milk !
Just when the casino owner hands you the keys, you learn from the cage that the only thing left in the vault is plastic chips & IOU chits of bankrupt gamblers !!!
Oh well, se la vie & sim salla bim, what's a fellow to do, "just stand there" ? Why yes.
Cash ain't trash - stash the cash ( 1/3 of mad $s )
Y.O.S.
Tar Baby

This is just a Vorspeiss, Liebling. Dow down 68, Utilities getting whacked after setting all time high and closing lower yesterday. Bonds lower after setting all time high this morning. The market internals are pitiable--We are setting up for a SLAM-DUNK through the floor of last month's lows and then through October lows at 6900-7000. 5400 Dow in '98!

D.A. I think you are right that we will have inflation, not deflation in the US. However, I have no hard facts to back that up, except a belief that AG et al have enough influence in SE Asia to prevent that key Japanese bank from going belly up -- and sucking us all down in a financial maelstrom.

I have several questions: First, I thought that imports/exports were rising so quickly they now represented 25% of GNP. Fastest growing part of the GNP as I recall. I have a hard time remembering the last time I bought something made in the USA, other than food or shelter. Secondly, the dollar is still rising fairly rapidly, putting more pressure on our trading partners, including Canada. This raises the possibility of further currency devaluations.

One point in favor of inflation is that, in addition to the flood of dollars, Europe's weather now seems to be aversely affected by El Nino. So, we may have a rise in food prices in the spring after all.

The big problem is our unresolved debt problem, though France and Germany have bigger problems than we do. Eventually all countries will have deflation, since that is the nature of things. So if we do not deflate this year -- when will it be? Y2k? 2015 when Soc Sec goes belly up?

Did you see sharefin's Avid post that the OldMan is now convinced we will have a depression very soon? It would be nice to get the OldMan back on Kitco to explain his reasoning.

Deflation? Hogwash! Where has Greenspan been? Anyone thats been shopping in a supermarket, furniture store, or an automobile dealership in the past few years will recognize that this is crap. How can we expect a technocrat that uses terms like economic transactions will lead to suboptimal outcomes to manage our economy? Would you hire someone that used those terms?
Two factors have been responsible for low inflation in the U.S.:

1. Trade with Asian countries has been kept the cost of manufactured goods low.
For example, the cost of labor required to produce steel was cut in half when significant production was shifted to Japan ( the yen was at 270+ ) , cut in half again when production was shifted to Korea/Taiwan, and is now being cut again as production is shifted to China.
If your live in Pennsylvania, Ill bet that you have an opinion about these steel jobs being shifted to Asia. If you live in Michigan, you probably have an opinion about automotive jobs...
Since these The Asia nations will attempt to solve the current crisis by reducing the value of their currencies, which will make their goods cheaper so they can export more to the U.S.

2. The price of oil remains low.
I laugh every time I hear about a crisis with Iraq. Everyone, including the U.S., is enjoying the current situation. The U.S. wants to continue to isolate Iraq from the world, similar to Cubas isolation for the past forty years. As long as Saddam Hussein is alive, Iraq will not be allowed to sell oil, which could finance his military. Everyone else in the Gulf is happy making money from Iraqs share of oil production.
If the political problems with Iraq were solved, there would be a REAL crisis, because the price of oil would either dive, or someone would have to substantially cut production.

LGB, what transcendental arogance you emit:

"I'm right here as always, reading about the best economic conditions of all time..."

while millions of Thais, Malays, Indonesians, Koreans, Japanese groan in their collapsing, contracting, imploding worlds. Currency worthless, jobs lost, their stock markets disintegrating...

... but We Americans, We be 'da Man! We be Smartses, we is! We put our financial thumb on yo back, and say "jump through the hoop!".

Fool. HOW long do you think the rest of the world will continue to put up with manipulative, meddling American financial thug-lords? Enjoy your imaginary wealth, LGB. It won't last long.

Here's to the freedom of the Asian peoples, painful as it may be, kick-out the IMF/Fed bastards and their paper lies! Buy gold and control your own destiny!

?? your two reasons sounded more like a case for lower prices, et:deflation ??

DJ I agree with your concept. For both of you I need a source for gold
price in local currencies, asia and Europe withouit being converte to dollars. I can get USD price. The comparison is what I"m after. Also arbitrage potential. If y'all have such source ( s ) i would be much obliged
and the impossible question is would there be a chart of these figures anywhere? if the rabbit is in the gum, my post is 2422 Warrior Fork Trail
Morganton, N.C. USA. Thanx again. EMAIL is devoto@w3link.com

Donot fear those starving wolves ahead as they donot like the taste of
sheep and besides I represent safety. The Old Boys Club is having the time of their lives as the sheep line up to buy paper by the handful.
For the second time in 69 years the poor have been duped into giving away
their hard earned dollars. Yes what a score, we will use Mutual Funds as
the vehicle and when the music stops the blame will be placed on these
financial gurus commonly known as Mutual Fund Managers! It is a sad state of affairs when a country will allow its poor and elderly to lose all
hope of retirement! Greenspan will one day regret his role in this scheme
to take from the poor and give to the rich. Clinton will be taken to task
on his obvious misunderstanding of this little bump in the road.
The demand for 5.75% bonds is the first clue that deflation has already
taken hold around the world. Can you imagine standing in line to buy 5.75% paper and believing this is a flight to quality. Watch the trading
closely and if you have any doubt about the paper moving from strong hands to weak hands, take note of the large sell programs and their timing. Mutual funds have been borrowing money to pay out redemptions and
no one seems to be taking notice of these events which have the same effect of the undeclared shorts. Now they tell the sheep that inflow and
outflow data is worthless and they will no longer be reporting on a timely basis. Yet one year ago that is all we heard about was the massive
sums of capital sitting on the sidelines! do you think that perhaps the
outflows now outweigh the inflows? If nothing else now is the time to
move your money out and get off the path lined with hungry wolves as I have news for you WOLVES LOVE TO KILL SHEEP!

JTF
Whose going to abandon ship.
I think AG would love to.
He's coming under lots of presure.
Bill and Bob are going to lean on him.
There has been comments on avid about these posibilities.
This is what spooked Oleman
"The bond close today is the most significant single development in the markets since I started investing over 25 years ago."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
From one of Steve's articles.
---------------------------------------
There are signs the US may take a more active role in resolving Thailand's problems, following the decision of the Thai Government to seek more assistance from the IMF.
After first keeping at arm's length from Asia's crisis, Washington became involved with the rescue package for South Korea when it became clear **************the entire economy may collapse.*********************
But the White House is facing an increasingly hostile US Congress, which is expected, when it returns next month, to fight any move to provide more US funds for the IMF or for international bail-outs.
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980107/world/world1.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

LGB
Here are some of the improvements of our enriched society.
Print it out and show the family and ask their opinion.
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/100Facts.html

I just bought December 1999 320 gold futures options this morning for $1,180. If that does cause gold to lose all of its remaining value I don't know what will cause it. When I reenter the market its time to see what I have purchased and to go short on the same commodity.

You never did answer my question regarding where you put your 'retirement' money to make it grow so it doesn't get eatin-up by inflation, etc. Do you buy gold? Is that why you are so bitter to someone you don't even know?? I am still trying to figure out what it is that I have done to you. Hmmmmmmmmmmm...I guess I pissed you off because I am following a trend and making money and you are.....well.......I don't know what you are doing.

btw.....The only ship I'll be riding is a cruise ship. I will spend some hard earned profits basking in the sun whilst sipping cool Rum drinks w/ little umbrellas. Care to join me?? I'll save a deck chair for you. But you must promise to leave the bitterness at the dock because we will be doing some HEAVY celebrating and spending vast amounts of cash on whatever suits us. It will be an 'orgy' of food and drink. I will be going in March ( mexico 7 day ) and in October ( 7 day Caribbean ) . Let me know.....deposits are due.....ohmy!

Will we ever be amigos? oh how i wish it were so.............

away...to search for the Spuds I know and love

funninandsunnin'

go gold......I can't believe it bellied-up to the 280 line and turned around......my pattern making is on track........it will be mine DA...i will have my chance to short also....maybe...uh huh.

D.A. ( 11:03 ) Just what I was goin ta say ( word-for-word ) ....

Tell *anyone* where I put my retirement benes??

You must think me a mutual-fund lemming, dear Eric. How's the pet haddock doing ( grin ) .

The media mindset has been altered incredibly during the past four months. The fear is setting in, fear of what?, they are unsure. But it is there and festering.

Fear will turn to terror and there will be a large sucking sound in the stock market. "Cautiously optimistic" will be a phrase burned into the mindset as the Captain of the Titanic calmly speaks into the microphone.

Ted, I told you I would never buy futures options again but gold was so low the devil made me do it. So, its looks like mail as usual in the vast belly of Canada.

WE are headed for Mland in March----you Mexico---mois Swan's Island...I wouldn't take Eddie Jones + Kobwed Bryant for my main-man ( sir Johnnny Starks!! ) ....

DA: Nice posting at 11:03.

Pardon me Spud, my head in the sand friend, but the Thai's Koreans, Chinese, Malay's, et al, remain in the mix when I sat "The best ecomomic conditions of all time".

Currency devaluations due to "too easy" credit and bubble economies notwithstanding, those folks are SO MUCH BETTER off today, then when they were all starving to death in feudal regressive third world economies of yesteryear ( ie the "good ole 30's when we still had a Gold standard and no one was willing to lend foreign capital to those nations )

Pardon me for pointing out the basic and obvious facts once again Spud, but your head is so far up your Kooluh that you obviously have no concept of what was going on in the world before your arrival. "Best economic times" in general, applies not only to the U.S., but to MOST third world and emerging Asian, Latin, and even cold war socilaist turned capitalost economies.

They may go through pains as they learn and make mistakes, but they're all a HELL of a lot better off today, then when they were jobless, industrialess, and starving. Get a clue......

You promised!!...Looks like 'the judge' is caving in and we should close next week as he signed his life away ( Agreement of purchase and sale--and sent the dough ) as soon as his lawyer can do the title search,we can close......Then I can god damn relax for a change and begin designing our dream house ....and get a material order together....P.S. The first purchase and sale agreement the damn judge sent he forgot to have his signature verrified ( can ya believe it??? )

The abysmal failure of the gold mining industry to catch up to the 21st century is a significant factor in the malaise affecting gold today.
In previous posts, I outlined how the New Paradigm exponents paint themselves as paragons of the new Information Age whereas members of the gold industry are portrayed as bumpkins in overalls standing in streams of water holding pans to sift gold ( a classic 19th century image, if ever there were one ) .

So what is the solution? CHANGE THE PERCEPTION! Every industry ad, annual report, or other propaganda piece extolling gold as a financial reserve should feature individuals in business attire holding their notebook computers and cell phones as they make their "New Gold Era" analyses.

The recent incidents in Korea are further examples of spinning perception. You can either see the glass as half-full or half-empty.
One perspective says that the Koreans pulling the gold from out of their closets en masse is a substantive testimony to the both the intrinsic value and supremacy of gold verus the Won. However, the New Paradigm perspective purveyed widely in the media is that, in fact, gold is equivalent to garbage...the Koreans are more inclined to dump their gold than part with their china, their furniture, or their soap

In the media, we are treated to images of Koreans lining up to deposit gold in the great national pot along with the explicit message, "Koreans are dumping their gold in order to buy valuable U.S. dollars." Who provides these particular propagandistic images to the media? The answer: the highly effective New Paradigm spin machine. Why are alternative pro-gold images along with pro-gold text not provided to the media? The answer: because the pro-gold forces in this country are reactive rather than pro-active. They are not out there cultivating intellectual and propagandistic support nor are they active in terms of co-opting various media to disseminate gold chauvinistic sentiment. Moreover, on a daily basis, pro-gold exponents should be knocking at the doors of the CB's ( just as the New Paradigm disciples do ) and providing them creative, new ideas as to how to profit from their gold reserves ( without actually disposing of them ) . Compelling new pro-gold concepts would turn the CB frame of mind around. Instead of continual gold liquidation, why not incessant gold acquisition?

It is a sad, pathetic fact that spin ( and spin alone ) knocked seven dollars off of gold's price yesterday. Fundamentally and technically,
nothing changed vis a' vis gold's imminent or long-term prospects. On the basis of this little epiphany, astute investors should be sending gold through the roof today. Yet, the power and pervasiveness of anti-gold propaganda is such that a chronic, negative perception is mounting throughout the world. The solution: CHANGE THE PERCEPTION!

Take another example: look at the ads that run on CNBC provided by gold coin companies to whet the appetite of the American public for their product. These ads are limp, lame, and essentially unchanged in form or content since time immemorial. Pictures of gold coins rolling across the TV screen. They purvey pro-gold messages that are on the one hand hackneyed catch-phrases and tired, old slogans and on the other, they are simply out of touch with the concerns of contemporary culture. Who manufactures such ineffective drivel? What ad agency relic from the Fifties was hired to create such unmitigated rot?

Certainly, there are more compelling images and text to sell gold to the American public. Why not a dramatic shot of the beleaguered Koreans lined up to deposit gold in the great national pot? Accompanying this image, place appropriate text explaining how gold is saving their financial ass ( as opposed to the New Paradigm spin saying that gold is mere refuse to be summarily disposed ) . Again, the issue is one of "SPIN" -- and more importanty, PRO-ACTIVE SPIN!!! Gold companies must beat the New Paradigm message to the punch.

If the foregoing concepts make any sense to you, my golden associates, then please call up your friends or contacts in the gold industry and rattle their cages! Attend gold industry symposiums and annual meetings and raise hell! Demand to know why the industry is not propagandizing in an effective manner. In our new Information Age, spin has become the main determinant of value. Why are the gold exponents not spinning their important message to the world?

Finally, I offer my humble services and intellectual analyses to assist in the conceptualization and elaboration of the "New Gold Paradigm"

LET'S DO SOMETHING DRAMATIC, FORCEFUL, AND TANGIBLE BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE!!!

Willy!---get ta damn work ya lazy lout....We are in the final stages so please hold off any trades till our charts show ya 'the light'....

Silver taking off again...up 20 cents...oh yeah! After another brutal day in Gold, this is tremendously bullish for Silver. The shorts who attacked last 2 weeks during ultra thin holiday trading are going to get killed..., $8.00 to $9.00 Silver by June, here we come!

Yep, dem media conspiritooors iz at it agin dammit! WGC shuld sho Goldbugs burnin dollerz to git bak at em!

Ted - take your bark-boy and go try to win anything.......a game of Jacks would be tough. And you want to sip drinks and play shuffleboard?? Let's get it on!!

Spuds - I am not asking you EXACTLY where. Generalities ( show him how lgb ) ?? I guess I don't care where you put your money....as long as you have something other than SS to look forward to. I will be comfortable and so will my grandkids........regardless of what you write about me. Pals?? or not???????!?? Well.......?? C'mon Spuds, you big LOVE-BUG!!!

btw....did you read the USA TODAY yesterday?? It gave a 'top-ten' list of mutual funds performers and losers. You should pick one up if you haven't. *warning* It could be painful if you weren't 'on the good-ship'........... Not bad for ( how do you say ) lemmings.......and Hadhocks ( ? ) .....I don't fish much....

away...to boil some taters

afoolyeahright

There's little or no communication
when we try to
express ourselves, as though we have mouths
but no ears.
A stone face would depict as well,
reveal as much.

It is not even certain that we'll want to
understand each other. It's agreement
we demand, equally assured
of one point
of view
only.

These obdurate Alamos
it would be euphemism
to call conversation
remind of pre-war fathers
and post-victory sons,
international harangues
and time-immemorial myopia.

A meeting of the minds means no more than that
a venue witnessed a joint appearance,
the best
we can hope for, appeasement.
Compromise is blackmail, murders principle,
makes dissidence angelic art,
art in this case for all our sakes,
even for those with whom we disagree.

*,

"As the first five days of trading goes, so goes the year."

Judging by the up/down volume and other internals.
The direction is being defined now.

3 days to pick up their heels or skirts.

Which planet are you from? As the U.S. continues to print money and spin
the story of a little bump in the road the average family is having enough problems just keeping food on the table! Three out of four American families are three paycheques from bankruptcy and you speak of
economic power! Three out of four families are one paycheque from falling
behind on consumer debt and you speak of economic power. Homeless and
foodless people wonder the streets of America at alarming rates and you speak of economic power. Face the facts my friend!

Psst...Hey gringo...you want to buy some silver?

Been taking lessons in flowery, "mysterious", meaningless, philosophizing from Cherokee I see

Thrilled by silver's encouraging results today, LGB haughtily dismisses the pro-gold message....blinded as he is by the reality that gold's malaise is ultimately silver's problem as well. If gold continues to weaken dramatically, silver simply cannot sustain its current rise...since gold producers will begin to dump silver on the market in order to save their financial hides. In fact, I know of at least two major gold producers that are planning to do within the several days.

Re-read the posting my exuberant ( victorious for today ) friend, LGB...there is categorically no media conspiracy...rather, there are simply media biases. However, in America, it is possible to change the extant biases through effective employment of advertising funds and persuasion.

you're right. Washington has been using a propaganda war and the
gold industry has probably been "helping" them by not taking the
offensive. DeBeers seem to do a real good job in promoting their diamonds, but the gold industry does very little.

It all sounds like a round Rubin to me. Fed prints $ and buys Asian
currencies ( via special deal ) . Then buys $ as necessary to keep up 30
year bond purchases. Just like FDR playing with gold before 1934.

My realtor was on her way to my house with the purchase and sale agreement for me ta sign and then 'this' happened:Hi Ted. Thanks for the info. Glen called here this morning, and left a
message. I was out showing a property in Boularderie, and I had a bad fall.
I think my ankle is screwed -- sprained, fracture or broken or some damn
thing. I've been waiting to get in to see the doc. I won't be heading down
today, and can't think straight. Will be in touch later.

In the meantime, I received the witnessed agreement from the Wards this am,
and it is open for your signatures until January 15th, so there is lots of
time for me to get both your signatures. I would, and of course you would
too, like to get the deal signed asap, and I will try very, very hard to get
to you this week.

Cathy

Crawl down here----pronto~~~~~

Thanks for helping to keep us on our toes as we learn how to
deal with arrogant, self-grandizing, bull-headed, gloating,
selfish, egotistical, and vision-lacking a-holes of the financial
world. By trying to reason with you, we are better prepared to
handle real face to face confrontations. Thanks Lacking Guts and
Blood ( LGB ) .

Got lots already 223, but thanks. Hatt, I'm from the planet Silicon Valley. Howvere, in this information age, I read about the rest of the place, and also travel on Biz., to middle east, Mexico, Russia, and most of U.S.

Even a cursory study of world economic conditions, AND U.S. economic history immediately yields the irrefutable fact that we are in the longest, strongest, sustained prosperity of the industrial age.

You Gold bugs read too much of your own nonsense and not enough economic history. You need to go back and loot at the ACTUAL lifestyles of the common man of 50 or 100 or 150 years ago, not just here in the U.S., but worldwide. Then temper all these Gloom and Doom observations accordingly.

I must admit, I shake my head daily in incredulity, as I read comments here about how folks with food, homes, jobs, goods, medical care, and relatively stable government, are SO MUCH WORSE OFF than when they were estarving, had nothing, and destined to die in a field of overwork or disease at age 24. Amazing.....Delusional.....pathological..I don't get it.

http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html

OH Mister Bugg - you are so cute and funny with your silly little

ideas - Id just like to pick you up and shake you!!

Would have answered your vicious ( unprovoked attack earlier ) but as usual ( snap out of it BART ) couldn't access the 'more words'---didn't miss anything though when I got ta read the inane 'trash' talk' ( reminding me of Van Axcel more by the day...eh ) ....gotta put another log on the fire ( will this damn work-day ever end?? ) ....go team gold+ Grizzles

Fantastic list of adjectives General, but when someone states that the moon is not made of green cheese, and the world is not flat, and UFO aliens are probably not living in a secret installation at area 51, it doesn't qualify that person to be all the things you describe.

Who is the arrogant one, but he who claims the "rest of the world" are Lemmings, while only the GoldBugs have the moral superiority to know the "true faith"?? All the while losing their Ass, pretending they're not, and prescribing solutions to the world's economic problems that would plunge humanity back into the dark ages?

Afraid you've got it upside down General. Your list of adjectives is a good one, and I suggest you save it and apply it where it makes a lot more sense.

SHAREFIN: Regarding your 3:22 post about Avid Chat - Is that "oldman" the same "Old Man" who used to post here? If so, that's a pretty amazing set of postings!

The abysmal failure of the gold mining industry to catch up to the 21st century is a significant factor in the malaise affecting gold today.
In previous posts, I outlined how the New Paradigm exponents paint themselves as paragons of the new Information Age whereas members of the gold industry are portrayed as bumpkins in overalls standing in streams of water holding pans to sift gold ( a classic 19th century image, if
ever there were one ) .

So what is the solution? CHANGE THE PERCEPTION! Every industry ad, annual report, or other propaganda piece extolling gold as a financial reserve should feature individuals in business attire holding their notebook computers and cell phones as they make their "New Gold Era"
analyses.

The recent incidents in Korea are further examples of spinning perception. You can either see the glass as half-full or half-empty.
One perspective says that the Koreans pulling the gold from out of their closets en masse is a substantive testimony to the both the intrinsic value and supremacy of gold verus the Won.

However, the New Paradigm perspective purveyed widely in the media is that, in fact, gold is equivalent to garbage...the Koreans are more inclined to dump their gold than part with their china, their furniture, or their soap

In the media, we are treated to images of Koreans lining up to deposit gold in the great national pot along with the explicit message, "Koreans are dumping their gold in order to buy valuable U.S. dollars." Who provides these particular propagandistic images to the media? The answer: the highly effective New Paradigm spin machine. Why are alternative pro-gold images along with pro-gold text not provided to the media? The answer: because the pro-gold forces in this country are reactive rather than pro-active. They are not out there cultivating intellectual and propagandistic support nor are they active in terms of co-opting various media to disseminate gold chauvinistic sentiment. Moreover, on a daily basis, pro-gold exponents should be knocking
at the doors of the CB's ( just as the New Paradigm disciples do ) and providing them creative, new ideas as to how to profit from their gold reserves ( without actually disposing of them ) .

Compelling new pro-gold concepts would turn the CB frame of mind around. Instead of continual gold liquidation, why not incessant gold acquisition?

It is a sad, pathetic fact that spin ( and spin alone ) knocked seven dollars off of gold's price yesterday. Fundamentally and technically, nothing changed vis a' vis gold's imminent or long-term prospects. On the basis of this little epiphany, astute investors should be sending gold through the roof today. Yet, the power and pervasiveness of anti-gold propaganda is such that a chronic, negative perception is mounting throughout the world. The solution: CHANGE THE PERCEPTION!

Take another example: look at the ads that run on CNBC provided by gold coin companies to whet the appetite of the American public for their product. These ads are limp, lame, and essentially unchanged in form or content since time immemorial. Pictures of gold coins rolling across the TV screen. They purvey pro-gold messages that are on the one hand hackneyed catch-phrases and tired, old slogans and on the other, they are simply out of touch with the concerns of contemporary culture. Who manufactures such ineffective drivel? What ad agency relic from the Fifties was hired to create such unmitigated rot?

Certainly, there are more compelling images and text to sell gold to the American public. Why not a dramatic shot of the beleaguered Koreans lined up to deposit gold in the great national pot?
Accompanying this image, place appropriate text explaining how gold is saving their financial ass ( as opposed to the New Paradigm spin saying that gold is mere refuse to be summarily elimninated ) . Again, the issue is one of "SPIN" -- and more importanty, PRO-ACTIVE SPIN!!! Gold
companies must beat the New Paradigm message to the punch.

If the foregoing concepts make any sense to you, my golden associates, then please call up your friends or contacts in the gold industry and rattle their cages! Attend gold industry symposiums
and annual meetings and raise hell! Demand to know why the industry is not propagandizing in an effective manner. In our new Information Age, spin has become the main determinant of value. Why are the gold exponents not spinning their important message to the world?

Finally, I offer my humble services and intellectual analyses to assist in the conceptualization and elaboration of the "New Gold Paradigm"

LET'S DO SOMETHING DRAMATIC, FORCEFUL, AND TANGIBLE BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE!!!

I have not read here, woe is me, my lifestyle sucks I'm being opressed by the gov., wrong station! I think what you hear is why must we pay for our life styles of today with our childrens money? You sound if you are such a caring person for all the worlds people having better lifstyles, but are we not being selfish in doing so by taken away the next generations future by giving them our debt.

Third time for the same post? In one day? And referring to yourself in the third person now?

The circumstantial fiction of history
encumbers living memory,
so alters the distant past
we may as well look forward
or see where we are
now, doubting the perspective of change,
certain of the same flaws.

Honour, loyalty, sacrifice,
were honed to prismatic courage.
Despair dulled, dream blinded,
ground in to the bloody dismemberment.

Amnesia grows out of the damaged earth
and a new species of greed,
while more of us care about more of us.
We are ravenous for peace
And determined to share it.

*

"Advisor" Soros says South Korea needs equity
SEOUL, Jan 5 ( AFP ) - Financier George Soros, speaking in a new
role as "informal advisor" to Seoul, said Monday that South Korea
needed new equity investment and not loans to overcome its financial
crisis.
To attract investment, Seoul must embark on a painful and
drastic revamp of the whole economy, Soros told a press conference
after spending two days in talks with president-elect Kim Dae-Jung
and his economic team.
But when asked if he had handed over a series of recommendations
to Kim, the Hungarian-born US investor said emphatically: "No. No."
Soros praised Kim's grasp of the severity of South Korea's
crisis and the "tough measures" he was prepared to take. He also
said his own team would come to Seoul "in the next couple of months"
to sound out possible investments.

S.Koreans line up for cash, others sell gold


SEOUL, South Korea ( Reuters ) - Thousands of South Koreans
swarmed failed merchant banks Monday to withdraw deposits, while
others lined up to sell gold jewelry to help the country raise
dollars.
But the stock market rose after comments by U.S. financier
George Soros that he might invest in South Korea provided a
much-needed psychological boost.
Soros said he would send a team of experts to Seoul by the
end of the month.

Strad master, QUICK man! Calm me down, you're the only one who can mellow me out when the Gold bugs get my wrath stirred up! I feel on the verge of a burst of pejorative adjectives.....must stifle quick before violating all my Jan 1st oaths!

Stradmaster
Yes, the one and same.
Makes one think about what's around the corner.

1. European currencies will be devalued ( convert to Euro, DM cut in half, e.g. ) in 99

2. Shortly before or after item #2, the dollar will be devalued--whether this is the result of global outrage or government overdraft--or a combination of the two-- does not affect the end result

To my mind, this is rather reminiscent of Warren Buffets Two Market Rules:
Rule 1--Never Lose Money
Rule 2--Never Forget Rule 1

Let' just call it a recession....now, how deep?

I know

Lets have a NAME THE BUG contest -

How about Lousy Greasy Blob or Looney Grotty

Blockhead ??

LGB...I have to post at least twice for guys like you ( just in case you miss the first post ) . I know it takes a while to pull your head out of your ass.

Give em HELL bro~~~~~go fer the juggler!!

The woe is me your hearing is gloomy gus, possible a distant relation of LGB?

Tongue in cheek

The abysmal failure of the DOW to hold its penetration of 8000 yesterday has put it in a weakened, hesitant position under the effective overhanging trendline connecting the August and October peaks. Early December's brief penetration of this line was the tail end of rally ebullience. That is where the rally failed. Bulls might claim yesterday's reversal may just be a catching of breath before roaring forward, but I don't think so. I think the stage is now set for a decline that will take prices, as measured by the S&P 500, to the 775ish level by April/May. Jupiter squares NYSE Mercury all this week. Watch transportation and communication issues for especial sensitivity to this aspect. If the week closes out with significant market weakness evident, then our vision of January 22/23 as panicsville is still on target.

I'd like to "Give em hell" Ted but their own posts so completely discredit their views that I need only sit back and read, whilst chuckling with almost uncontrolled mirth!

And hey Farfel, quit the poetic stuff, you've inspired Tolerant and now he's writing his own form of "poetry"... pretensious enough to almost gag me with it's cloying quasi mysterion "wisdom"... where's my Pepto Bismol.

Disney, you and Spud get that survivalist camp set up yet? Don't forget those semi automatic weapons for the Govt. "revenooers" ( They don't try and git yet likker now, it's yer GOLD thar after! )

Steady Man. Get those pejorative adjectives behind thee. You're doing fine, youre doing fine. I have faith in you.

T#1...please take me with you...I'm ready to go.
CherOkee...no need for numbers higher than 9...+9...when the eagle flies and the lies die.

I think I will call.

Dammit Sheller, I was writing my last post before I read yours, and kinda slipped up..but I'm ok now!

Ted, the principal difference between your judge buyer and the rest of us mere mortals is that he has the ability to put his pants on two legs at a time. You better not be in the same room when he does it though. It is an ugly, ugly sight to have to witness.

Thrilled by silver's encouraging results today, LGB haughtily dismisses the pro-gold message....blinded as he is by the reality that gold's malaise is ultimately silver's problem as well. If gold continues to weaken dramatically, silver simply cannot sustain its current rise...since gold producers will begin to dump silver on the market in order to save their financial hides. In fact, I know of at least two major gold producers that are planning to do so within the next several days.

Re-read the posting my exuberant ( victorious for today ) friend, LGB...there is categorically no media conspiracy...rather, there are simply media biases. However, in America, it is possible to change the extant biases through effective employment of advertising funds and persuasion.

Farfel, enjoyed your 12:20 post. I feel the same way about the Republican Party in the US. I am a conservative, but cringe when I see how the party leadership drops PR ball after PR ball. No leadership. No street smarts on how to get the message out. The public remains convinced that Republicans are mean-spirited, selfish CEO types who only live for the dollar.

Gold has a similar PR problem. The image will remain neandertal until the industry gets in the spin business. WHY own gold? Tell the truth and see what happens.

mechanistic programmed pseudo soul

nothing remains
forever nothing
remains are not
anything

Sheller you can't talk without some of that astro bunk coming out of your mouth. Let me tell you in 1972 I took a course in Dallas Texas with a woman that was going to teach us technical analysis, but instead we were introduced to that stupid astrogoly and we all lost our shirts including this teacher. It is a religion with you and you keep promoting it on this website. Give it up and let us go on about our business without that charlatan system. Anyone who follows that course is greatest fool.

What are they doing? Would you give up your gold for "the common good"?

I just heard ( on Bloomberg Radio ) that 43,000 Korean citizens have turned in a total of 3.3 tons of gold ( jewelry, coins, etc. ) on the first day of their drive to acquire US dollars. What are they getting in return, won or IOU's? Are they being encouraged to sell now by promises that gold will soon fall from a local-currency ( won ) perspective? Is anyone close enough to this situation to elaborate?

Three or four tons of gold won't impact the market much, but I've read that Koreans privately own about 2,000 tons. If they can coax even 10% of this gold out of hiding ( 200 tons ) , they'd be selling more gold than Australia's CB did last spring. Ouch!

Let's hope that most of this gold will never actually be sold, but instead will be used to cover gold loans from the CB's. ( I've read that Korea was a big player in the borrow-gold-to-sell-it-to-raise-US-dollars game. I'd bet they're badly over-extended and the CB's are calling those loans. ) Does anyone have a guess as to how much gold Korea has borrowed from CB's?

I'm outta here....work beckons...

away...to the grind

ondrules

Can not get enough $$$ to buy up the incredible deals out there. Most, not all, gold shares on fire sale!! Wish I bought all my holding here but no problema.

Now, when the world's monetary crises is just begining along with a impending collapse of world equities these are buys of ours and our childrens' lifetimes.

Do not be mistaken we are in the begining of a major change. The bull is still giving you a chance!! Get on board.

REJOICE and Be Glad and GET IN!! The paper is about to be history. Remember that ultimately gold shares will by just like money backed by gold!!
The economic laws have not been repealed just postponed with incredible consequences.. BE STEADY in what you know must come!!!

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It would be nice, wouldn't it! How about it, Bart?

As forecast in the Bible and by many seers in private revelation,
a time will come shortly when God will allow demons to ravage the
earth for 72 hours as punishment for the unrepentant sins of mankind.
For 72 hours or three days, the earth will be subjected to total
darkness and most likely lack of all electrical power. Lighting
in one's home can only be achieved by having a person in a state
of grace with God light a Blessed Candle. During these 72 hours,
one should remain inside, not even look outside ( will cause immediate
death ) , not answer the door for anyone lest deceitfull demons enter,
and do one's best to pray, fast, and beg God for forgiveness.
As many as 3/4 of the world's population, good and bad, will be
destroyed and only a remnant surviving. It is of the most importance
that we have prepared our souls for eternal salvation when this time
comes; if we have been chosen by God to survive this great Chastisement,
then we should also be prepared physically and financially in the way
of basic everyday supplies such as non-perishable foods and water,
guns and ammo for protection/hunting, blankets, generators, etc.

Laugh if you will, but look around you. God takes Princess Diana
and blessed Mother Theresa from us within a week of each other;
again he takes Michael Kennedy and Sonny Bono within a week, both
from the same bizarre type of accident; and the list goes on.
Yet we continue to murder our unborn, promote "alternate lifestyles"
to our children, keep criminals in the highest positions of power
in the country, etc. Come 1 January 2000, the Year 2000 bug could
end up being the very least of our problems. I can't think of any
scenario where having a stash of gold and other PMs wouldn't be a
good idea, not to mention food stores, guns/ammo, supplies, etc.
They, unlike paper, will always be good for their original purposes
( I guess you could use fiat currency if you run out of toilet paper. )

Don't dismiss this; your immortal soul could very well depend on
heeding this advice.

With regret, we finally had to get rid of the "banty" roosters...a cryin' shame. I spend my time on Kitco trying to read the man...not the words...tough duty, lately.

remember LGB, my claymores will be turned 'round the wrong way. wink, wink,nudge, nudge.

Spud, off to the 120 PSI reinforced Tater Cave to sip single malt while gloating at the suffering of millions of Asians who obviously haven't a clue that we are living in the best of all possible worlds...

The Honk Kong Oracle has given another insightful and perhaps even alarming prediction of what currency turmoil to expect in Asia during 1998. It is definitely NOT a pretty picture. Milhouse gives his considered opinion on most major currencies and GOLD.

Gold will be the major beneficiary of the increasing currency
volatility wrought by EMU and the drive to inflate which is already underway in almost every country. The reason it will benefit is because it is the only form of money which exists outside the financial system. As such, it is the only truly effective hedge against inflation. Any method of hedging against inflation which exists within the financial system involves a payment risk. Also, even if your non-gold hedge is
100% effective, you simply end up with a larger quantity of paper.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/milhouse010598.html

The aura of ephemeral ecstacy descends from it's other dimensional sphere, clothing substance to the physical with the invisible mantel of it's omnipresence. Through osmotic yin and yang, it permeates the being of exsistential spirit until the possible becomes the likely and the probable. All things join in the chain until the third realm becomes obvious to the three dimensional, so limited in their capacity to grasp that which is beyond their own sphere of.....

( The above pretensious BULLshit was inspired by Goldbug "poets"..hope it inspired all with it's mysterious wisdom....back to work )

I'm relying on Sydney to get me that wink. C'mon Mateys!! NY couldn't do it...let's see how the sheep ( shaggies ) do it...... ( tongue busting out of his cheek ) .......yuk, yuk.

away

shukinandjivin

What book, chapter, and verses did you read this from, have not came across it as of yet.

Don't you know that Gold Bugs have teeth. Why do you always seem to forget that? You admit you are no analyst, that you have no great clever ability in the markets. You r boat has risen with its tide. Smart man that you are you see the end of the ride and have made your timely exit of that market's waters. Now you speak out of two sides of your mouth. You tell us what a wonderful ECONOMY we have, but you are not invested in it. You tell us how great America is, yet show in your attitudes a real lack of care or empathy for those who are in true chaos ( because it is not you or your country ) . Your arrogance is that we are 'better' than anyone else and so it can't happen to us. Just keep jaw boning. It helps pass the time.

Look back. You came on board at about the same time I did here. There was alot of talk at that time about the time-bomb waiting to go off in Asia. You demured, yet it is quite real now. Even you can not deny it. The discussion here has been, as a group, to explore the POSSIBILITIES. Many make a case for one view or another, yours as well. My observation is that you know there is trouble coming but will not admit it until it sinks its teeth into you thigh ( quite like a few gold bugs your know here ) . Well, that's one way to play the game.

AG is talking DEFLATION. Since you and Karlito_99 prefere to listean to 'real, educated economists' then I suggest you listean really well to him. Since you like facts, then read the CB/FED numbers. Monetary growth is astronomical. Why would Japan print 1% money per day??? When was the last time the FED expanded money by 18% ( annualized ) in a four week period??? We are at the edge of extreme times. I know you are prepared for this in your current financial posture. Your rhetoric does not jibe with your actions. Talk on all you want about greatness, etc. You are confessing your own misgivings by your actions. If everything was so wonderful then why aren't you in the game??? Because you know iontuitively that we are toast.

Struck a nerve huh?

Discipline in your trading is the key of succes,not any of the prescribed or offered prognostications.To blindly follow someone else his or her
ideas is folley.I like all the inputs for or against,don't get biased and
you will make money when you let the market talk.Have a good day.: )

For Loquacious Gummy Bubblehead

You SAY that you are employed and TRAVEL all over the

world to RUSSIA and other colorful places. Well now

if that is true how come all you really seem to do is

sit at your PC and type Rubbish and start arguments with

your obvious superiors ??

I believe you are really a casual employee hired by

the Treasury Department to harass Gold Bugs. This is

how you earn your living and at minimum wage you poor

devil.

General: Gee, you warm the cockles of my heart, bibling me like that.

You do LGB a great favour with such posts.

private@parts_aurator

farfel: I'm not going to argue about the need for gold to get a better "perception" but it currently has an accurate one--a declining commodity. The perception of its value will change once its value does.
Here is your problem: http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-sil.html

Sharefin: If that is what the Oldman is picking up -- we are in deep trouble! If RR and BC put pressure of AG to go to an increasingly hostile congress, AG will be caught between a rock and a hard place. I really don't know what AG will do -- I doubt he will feel confortable resigning midstream, as it were -- but then again, what if he is asked to let the market rally, and reduce interest rates? That would be a setup for massive deflation. I think what AG would prefer is the miracle of flooding the world with electronic dollars, and keeping a lid on the markets. He may just decide that this is his last 4 year term, and do what he thinks is right for the country.

AG did survive the 1987 crash, so he has been through the wringer before. He is now very experienced at running the Fed, and he may be able to keep peace with all the competing factions.

I think we need to alert for signs of AG passing the baton to one of the pro-inflation types at the fed. Perhaps the Oldman will give us some more clues.

Allen, you set up a "Straw man" once again to attempt to obfuscate by knocking it down. Let me for the millionth time, repeat what I said yesterday to General when he said I was a hypocrite for not being in the stock market, and buying Silver.

"Hyprocrite General? Not at all. I'm not wedded to some fanatical point of view re Equities OR PM's. I buy, sell and trade based on market fundamentals. Which will always be shifting and changing, much as Goldbugs wish and long for them "Good ole days" of nice warm secure metals to keep themselves comfy at night.

I bought equities years ago beased on my belief in historic performance, bargain prices for stocks, and our strong economy. Fundamentals. I sold out of equities when valuations reached record levels. Fundamentals...I'll buy back in when they dip sufficiently. Fundamentals.
I bought Silver this last summer because of a looming shortage and rock bottom bargain prices. Fundamentals. I'll sell it when it reaches $8.00 or $9.00/Oz. and the shiny stuff starts coming out of the woodwork.

The nice thing about being a realist, is you don't have to be wedded to some fringe, cult, point of view. Results are what matter. We see the abject failure of socialism worldwide and realize it's discredited no matter how "nice" the theory sounded. We see the most prosperous times in human history based partially on current economic policy re money supply managment, fiat or no. It works....."

Back to today...I believe in our economy, and I believe the stock market will decline this year, and/or next ( due to coming too far too fast ) leading to a "buy" opportunity. No contradiction at all....


Disneyperson.... I know it's tough to sit and watch the world go by. The fact that you may not have the oppotunity to travel on Biz doesn't mean others don't. I of course post here even when I travel, and at times I'm absent for days..in case you didn't notice...when I AM here, I'm generally doing a few things at once, work included..it's the nature of the position I'm in, not that I need to explain it to the likes o' you

The day is not over yet ( 13:03 ) but the Dow/Gold Ratio turned tail and fell at EXACTLY the same point as the Jan 1966 top and the December 9th top. The Elliott Wave guys are jumping for joy. They call it a B wave top from 1980 and are looking for the Dow Gold Ratio to head for the equivalent 1896 or 1877 bottom. This whole waveform dates back to 1789. This is a major event in EWT. Wish I knew more about this stuff.

I have enjoyed many hours reading the numerous and insightful analysis on this site. However, I have decided to take a vacation from Kitco, because I no longer regard it a place where a serious and professional exchange of ideas can prevail. In my business, the centuries-old ideal of open discussion must be predicated on mature and civilized debate. Most professors establish their reputations by publishing in the so-called "learned journals." Though I have both read and published there, I find them rather stodgy and lifeless. Kitco interested me both as a vehicle to monitor my gold investments and as a forum where, seemingly, very bright men of the world could be engaged. But I have become convinced that the sort of sophomoric and banal psycho-drama that people like LGB have prompted in this site do not deserve further engagement. Given my slim, even amateurish contribution to date, my departure surely will not cause great alarm. But if the reasons for my departure are what drove people like George Cole away, then you all have indeed something to lament

Better be careful boys, the bible is replete with quotes a la, "their Gold will become worthless"

The Green one has made it clear that he WILL inflate if necesary to stave off a deep, deflationary, recession. This is juts one a many reasons that a 1929 will not recur here.

We learned our liquidity lesson from that experience and will not repeat the error of "tight money". Sorry to disappoint cause I know you GoldBugs love a good, miserable, sustained, horrific, depression.

I read a book about this which I have returned but one biblical
reference I remember is from a book something like "Zaphariah"
not Zachariah but something with a Z with a similar sound.
I believe it was Chapter 1; verse 16-17.

BTW, it is a gold-related post because I advocate trading in
paper for gold. God's wrath is nothing to joke about and if
a religious person has had this plan revealed to them, then
I plan to pay attention and heed the warning. All are free of
course to do as they will.

LGB: I have a question for you. Cycles of wealth and poverty, peace and war have been part of the human condition for at least 6,000 years. Have you read that Sumerian complaining about how he misssed the "good old days" in 3000 bc?

Is the US economy and the US market going to rise without limit into the stratosphere, with no more corrections, and no more depressions? The US has had at least three depressions, numerous recessions, and numerous wars. What I don't understand is why the possibility that the markets might go south is unthinkable -- that is like defying the law of gravity.

Of course -- noone can predict the time of a correction or a depression -- but we can try. Statistically, the market is 3x more likely to go up than down. But as Trader Vic showed eloguently in one of his books, you can plot the steadily increasing odds of a market correction on a monthy basis, just by using historical comparisons. Given the lenght of this rally, and the incredible world events that are unfolding, by now the odds are certainly better that 1:1 that we will have a correction this year.

Don't let the door....in case you havn't noticed, professional journals and the halls of academia, are not the same thing as an opinion forum Prof.

Freewheeling expression is what prevails here and if you don't like it, it's good that you have the foresite to change the channel. I've written professional papers in my field, and I can assure you, it's a COMPLETELY different style of writing..and one I'd hate to be "limited" to here.

Sorry to hear that you once again verify all our preconceptions about uptight academics who supposdely prize open experssion of ideas and opnion..you gotta get out more man into the real world.....you should see the debates we have at lunch time around here...

You ask: doesn't gold's value determine the perception? Doesn't the low price create negative perception?

It is a chicken and egg dilemma...however, personally, I still believe that the perception creates the value, not the other way around.

In other words, the price level is not relevant to the perception as much
as the RATE OF CHANGE in the price level. If gold is rapidly rising, then the rate of change alters the perception ( even if the price level is already relatively low ) .

For example if tomorrow gold were to experience a $12.00 rise in value
then that fact would have tremendous effect in altering negative perception on the "commodity." The rate of change would completely overwhelm the negative perception based on the price level.

As I suggested in my previous posts the "Threshhold of Mass Panic"
into a Deflationary spiral has not been crossed in EU or US, and "Their
Weapons of Mass Deception" have convinced most that the current world trading "crisis" is just an Asian "crisis".However INHO the fact
that AG and others have been publicly warning about Deflation tells
me a number of things, including, that "they" are indeed worried about
crossing said"Threshhold of Mass Panic" and will do everything and anything possible to "Inflate".Having said that, they are not going to
make it obvious, so as to spook the US$ and world financial markets,
and begin the panic stampede into GOLD.Therefore I conclude that AG would like the Markets down somewhat, and the US$ up somewhat,
so that when he lowers interest rates, the US$ will only decline to where it was a couple weeks ago, and the Equites markets would do same, thereby we get manipulated "Status Quo".
I have beleived all along that Gold is both an Inflation and Deflation gage worldwide and AG et al would make certain that GOLD would NOT fall in price too far past $280.00 in order not to psychologically cross said "Panic Threshhold" According to J. Ryding C.Sr. Economist for Bear Sterns,who has studied for a number of years now,the relationship and price of Gold to reflect Inflation/Deflation, a Gold price of $290 represents a US Inflation figure of about 1-2%. However he states that a much lower price for Gold between 240 to 260 actually would represent Deflation.
IMCO Gold will not be allowed to drift down to much lower levels
and will eventually begin a slow calculated and controlled rise to about 320 in order to "Change Perception" from Deflationary to very slight
Inflationary enviroment. The Paper game continues, until the US$
is or appears to be challenged as SOLE world reserve currency,
at which time,the incredible Thunder of GOLD will surely be heard.

Remarks by E. Gerald Corrigan
Chairman, International Advisors
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
at the Symposium on Risk Reduction in Payments, Clearance and Settlement Systems

....it is useful to catalogue the possible sources of events that could produce a major shock to payments, clearance and settlement systems into five groups:

1. Natural disasters** ( Euro insurance cos. worried by storms/claims )
2. Mechanical Failures
3. Political Shocks
4. Major Market Shocks ***
5. Impaired Financial Institutions****

legend: *****= It is here
**** = Probably here, but as yet unreported
*** = See headlights coming down the road
** = In the car, and starting off

HighRise:Much appreciated your summation of Monday 20:29.

Brazil down 463 ( 4.36% ) , Mexico down 134 ( 2.6% ) right now

V Professor
You are correct, it is the reason that George Cole, RJ, Old Man and many others have left the site. Most regrettable yet easily understandable. Trouble is, of course, when the grown ups leave, the children commit mayhem.

I hope you return, your infrequent posts have contained gems of wisdom that have benefitted many here.

This has happened in the past, I suspect it may have something to do with lunar cycles or perhaps the manic depressions that gold bugs are heir to.

To all

The professor is right - LGB brings out the worst in

all of us and we waste time responding to his postings.

Gerry Corrigan is also the Ex-President of the New York Fed and a Paul Volker protege ( and a local boy ) .

Voyeur Professor: We will miss you -- I still like to post at this site, because of the few openminded individuals that freely express numerous aspects of the same idea, as well as many concepts. I admit it is frustrating when a few hog the airways, expressing the same concepts ad nauseum. One must pass over those individuals who repeat the same information and ideas in numerous posts must be ignored, and look for the pearls. I wish you well, and I hope you find a similar site so that you can keep tabs on world events -- because somewhere before 2015 I think the US will have its crisis.

No of course I don't believe we will not have future recessions or stock market downturns. If I believed that, I'd be in the market. I think we have a downturn ahead, and I'm waiting for it to get back in. The Asian crises will affect us, more than the one half of one percent that SOME folks in the medai have stated is the extent of the effect.

Debt/money can not be expanded without limitation either. It must be carefully controlled to allow for enough liquidity to fuel economic expansion at a reasonable pace, without igniting inflation, and creating excessive numbers of bad loans on unwanted businesses and industries ( a la Korea ) .

But we do have an expanding population, and ever evolving economy, and we must expand our money supply somewhat in line with GDP growth, I'd like to see debt come down. If we had politicians with Heuvos, they'd take advantage of current economic conditions to reduce spending and debt..now...while we have the chance.

All things considered though, I can only repeat, the economic events of the past couple decades have been nothing short of an INCREDIBLE unprecedented time of prosperity. Economic policy was a major factor in bringing it about.

Voyeur Professor: George Cole posts under an alias now, as was revealed in December. If you pay attention, you will recognize his style in posts by a certain two-word name. I for one am glad he is still with us.

Chase and Citicorp down 5+ and 6+. Some worrying going on it seems.

talk about the pot calling the kettle black! OK, you pontificating, blowhard, phonies. Let's face facts, the real reason you get annoyed with the Hepcats and LGB's of the worl;d, is that they so inconviently point out the facts of life to you in language that isn't couched in hypocritical nicety.

Tell ya what, I'll take a break for a few days and let you all back pat each other on your "quality" posts, so you can get back to the world of fantasy re Gold, where it's been, where it's going, and your zeal to bring on the "Apocolypse" that you so crave.....

Till Saurday then.....

Your comments are certainly geared at creating attention Mr. LGB but the
sad part is I get a sense that you are actually beginning to believe that
you are part of the establishment rather than just another member of the
herd of sheep that suddenly believe that the wolf loves them! Remember my
friend when it is all over you will get only what you have given! Have a
great day in the Valley with the rest of your sheep!

Newmont is the only gold stk. moving up today, anyone have any info as to Y ?

Careful, General, how you throw scriptures around. I don't see anything in this that limits it to 72 hours, nor a mere three-quarters of the people. Verse 18 specifically says that "Neither their silver nor thier gold will be able to deliver them on the day of the Lord's wrath; And all the earth will be devoured In the fire of His jealousy, for He will make a complete end, indeed a terrifying one, of all the inhabitants of the earth." It doesn't sound like gold, silver, ammo or food will be of any use then. Better to analyze the context and study the relevant issues of prophetic interpretation before taking 'private revelations' over God's word.

farfel: We don't exactly agree. If gold suddenly jumped the perception of its Trend might be different and more positive than the current situation. The current negative perception of "it" is based I believe on the decline in value for 20 years. That by the way has some part in the reluctance of the Asians to buy gold--its going down just like their currencies. What gold needs is a prolonged upward movement above $400 to get a sustained "perceptual" change. Between there and here it might be seen to be in a bounce or trap that could be traded but for the perception of "it" rather than of its Trend to change-- at least a rise to $400 is required.

http://www.usagold.com/Daily Quotes

Oh, LGB, please return and explain why gold investment and the Apocalypse are synonymous. Please enlighten us with your so erudite elucidations.

I don't believe any of the rational members of this forum are genuinely craving a doomsday scenario. After all, what good does it do anybody to have the nicest, most expensive chair on the Titanic?

However, gold remains a pandemic investment medium whose ownership is
as morally justified as dollar ownership.

Who is more immoral? Gold investors seeking to protect their wealth...or insatiably greedy Wall Street speculators who think nothing of printing infinite quantities of money to amass untold amounts of wealth?

Could you please check that URL you just posted? I'd
like to read it. Thanks.

elf: I agree.


Please stay with us Mr. Cole.

RE: Yours of 07:31; you bring the skis and I got the wax.
Saw on WGN a few minuites ago on geraldo that there is already talk of finding some means of protectin' us, the public,from hazards on the slopes!
WOWSERS!!!
We could buy season passes fer all the congress and send them to the top of Aspen Mtn in a heavy blizzard. ( :+^ ) }[

I do not want you to feel that my attack on astrology was an attack on you. I would like to read your posts but because you add astrology to your other forms of study I can't. If you are 100 per cent sure that astrology holds the keys to the future of the markets then throw away your fundamental data and your technical charts and believe totally in your religious system. Then come back in six months and show us your trades based entirely on astrology. Then you will find what we already know. Isa. 47:13 All the counsel you have received has only worn you out! Let your astrologers come forward, those stargazers who make predictions month by month, let them save you from what is coming upon you.

If you can get it to work then I want to know about it!!!
Dennis

Brazil Bovespa Index ^BVSP 2:19PM 10185 -422 -3.98%

Selby, I know that the technical analysts would agree with you. They would say, "Oh, a $12.00 rise is merely an aberrational blip in a downward trend."

On the other hand, I don't believe the investing public at large are primarily "technicians." Rather, they are primarily creatures of emotion with incredibly short memories. A significant, dramatic one day movement does amazing things to erase investor memories...particularly if a compelling spin accompanies the price move.

try this and click on daily quotes; http://www.usagold.com

Thanks for your insights. It is true that gold and silver ( and guns/
ammo ) will not save us from God's wrath; only a pure soul will do
that. What I meant was that the remnant who are left on the Earth
after the great punishment will be in a new, unknown, environment
and I, for one, would rather be prepared as I described than
having taken no precautions at all. I don't think Scripture and
prophesy disagree on what we should do; common sense and faith in
God should be all we need.

Didn't know he had a relationship with Volker other than through their G-30 association. Interesting.

LGB@Fighting.Reality --Sorry, but Federal Judges proved in US Court of Claims that the dollar is not a standardized amount of anything...it is INTANGIBLE INCOME

February 11, 1976, 140 federal judges sued in the United States Court of Claims for a raise in pay.

They based their arguments on ARTICLE 3, SECTION 1 OF THE CONSTITUTION, WHICH STATES THAT THE COMPENSATION OF FEDERAL JUDGES SHOULD NOT BE DIMINISHED DURING THEIR CONTINUANCE IN OFFICE.

Measured by the consumer price index, the real value of the compensation for each US district judge was diminished from $40,000 to approximately $26,000 between Mar 15, 1969 and Oct 1, 1975.

If an income of $40,000 in 1975 was less income than $40,000 in 1969, then surely the dollar must be a fiction. For if a judge knew what a dollar was--whatever it might be--then they would also know that 40,000 of them were 40,000 of them...a rose is a rose is a rose, dont you know.

BUT WHEN THE DOLLAR IS NOT A STANDARDIZED AMOUNT OF ANYTHING, NOR EVEN DEFINED IN THE LAW, THEN INCOME IN DOLLARS CANNOT BE MEASURED IN ANY REASONABLE,ACCURATE WAY.

VIRTUAL MONEY.

Daniel Webster said: "Of all the contrivances devised for cheating the laboring classes of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes him with paper money."

aj----

-----negative on colorado----

send them to the top of sun-spot at alta in utah.....obmf!

-----cherokee!;------watching-what-was-known-----transpire----

aj----

-----negative on colorado----

send them to the top of sun-spot at alta in utah.....obmf!

-----cherokee!;------watching-what-was-known-----transpire----

least the first four bars of the chorus!

LGB: "Don't let the door hit ya". " Step out into the real world .... etc."

Never cease to amaze me. I was totally unaware of this.

OLD GOLD: I could NOT disagree more with your commentary about the gravity of GOLD LOAN DEFAULTS. Methinks you are missing a number of perinent points of consideration.

You say only 10% of the Veneroso estimate of 8,000 tonnes might default, equaling 800 tonnes. Further, you comment this represents "only" about $10 billion. Here's where your logic is considerably flawed.

Firstly, 800 tonnes represents about 40% of the annual world's gold production. 40% OF THE ENTIRE WORLDS PRODUCTION! Even at current rates of production, this is indeed a great deal. Furthermore, should the gold price continue lower, more gold mining companies will be forced to default, possibly increasing your guess of only 10% to perhaps explode to 1,500 to 2,000 tonnes in GOLD LOAN DEFAULTS - which is getting uncomfortably close to the entire world's yearly production.

Secondly, using your own guess of only 800 tonnes to arrive at a $10 billion value is totally unrealistic in market terms. When gold mining companies default on Gold Loans, the Central Banks cannot just chalk it up to a bad debt reserve in the Balance Sheet. On the contrary Central Banks must return that gold to the Balance Sheet - which means the hapless bankers must go to the world spot market to buy 800 tonnes of the yellow metal. Can you possibly imagine the panic and pandemonium in the COMEX, LBMA and other world gold centers, when the Gold SHORTS discover Central Bankers must replenish their empty gold vaults with a volume equivalent to 40% of the worlds annual production. As the mad scramble begins to erupt, it will attract hordes of greedy LONG SPECULATORS, who will catapult the gold market to IRRATIONALLY EXUBERANT LEVELS... reflecting ample historic precedent.

In short, your estimate of only requiring $10 Billion dollars to resolve the GOLD LOAN DEFAULT problem will just be a spit in the bucket. And using your figure of only 800 tonnes of GOLD LOAN DEFAULTS, I would estimate it will easily take FIVE TO TEN TIMES THAT AMOUNT IN US DOLLARS TO REPLACE THE GOLD THE CENTRAL BANKS MIGHT LOSE THROUGH UNTRADITIONAL AND SPECULATIVE GOLD OPERATIONS.

Thirdly, we most probably will eventually find out that Venerosos estimate of 8,000 tonnes in Gold Loans was a very conservative figure. It is well-documented that banks, especially foreign Central Banks can literally hide for years commitments or losses. Please also recall our illustrious FRB is NOT SUBJECT TO INDEPENDENT AUDITORS. WHO knows what is the level of outstanding Gold Loans!! Moreover, it is of paramount and relevant importance not to forget Central Banks possess about 35,000 tonnes of gold. ADDTIONALLY, there are all the banks in the private sector, which may have been riding the gold gravy-train in recent years vis--vis the seemingly riskless gold operations. INDEED, 8,000 IS AN ULTRA-CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE.

In light of the above, your estimate that only $10 Billion will be needed to cover the looming Central Bank Gold Loan Defaults appears grossly UNDERSTATED.

Ironically, Central Banks may someday soon have to START BUYING GOLD to raise the price... the purpose would be to PROTECT THEIR GOLD LOANS TO Financially WEAK gold companies, whose Balance Sheets are being wasted due to the protracted price decline in the yellow.

Hepcat must be furious at your invoking his name. He neve mangled the English language like this.

13:58 "The Asian crises will affect us, more than the one half of one percent that SOME folks in the medai have stated is the extent of the effect."

Anyone How much Au in a 1907 $10 Liberty? Have Au content of many coins, not this 'un. TIA

Must be infectius. Neve = Never.

( Shhhh, don't tell anyone I'm aound I mean around.. )

Thanx a bunch. I got several. When I know what the hell I'm doing will post.Meantime- buy put/call spread on dollar and gold. strikes as suit. Time same. Meantime trade between them. Again many thanx

$ 10 Liberty = Size: 27 mm; Weight: 16.718 gm; Composition: 90% gold ( 0.4839 ounces ) ; 10% copper

rube: Rising gold stocks today include NEM, NGC, GGO, MDG, PGU, GSR, and CDE. The first six are in the top ten holdings of FSAGX Fidelity Select American Gold. Perhaps there is buying today by FSAGX or other gold mutual funds. CDE has silver as well as gold, and silver is up again.

I would like to make a few more points regarding perception and gold. Many of the forum members have been completely mystified by my poetic outpouring over the last several days. Yet, there is method to my madness.

Why did I create a character by the name of Shorty McGee? Very simply, it is a classic example of New Paradigm tactics at work...except in this case, Shorty McGee is an intellectual construct designed to benefit pro-gold interests.

You see, the New Paradigm disciples seek to portray gold ownership as an anachronism and the people who invest in it as retro-simpletons, country bumpkins, religious zealots, anti-intellectuals, nihilists, and Cassandras. In contrast, New Paradigm disciples are described as sophisticated, techno-savvy, urban, futuristic, 21st century, politically correct, etc. Thus, not only is it necessary for the gold industry to alter the negative mass perception of gold ownership but, to a certain degree, it is imperative the industry changes the mass perception of the New Paradigm disciples as well.

Who is Shorty McGee ( as I designed him ) ? He is a New Paradigm fella who shorts gold and silver...and as I portrayed him, he is a suicidal, exuberantly irrational, whoring, boozing clown...a totally negative personality. In doing so, I utilize the same tactics of the New Paradigm disciples...because they do more than simply act as cheerleaders for index mutual funds, lofty multiple technology stocks, a new computer-in-every-home society, etc. Above and beyond that, they actively defame, diminish and discredit their perceived "opponents" ( most notably, the gold investment industry )

Thus, Shorty McGee is yet another example of a weapon that the gold industry might employee against the New Paradigm disciples. It is a case of fighting fire with fire. If the New Paradigm designs negative, absurd stereotypes of gold industry figures and beliefs, then why is the gold industry failing to mount a similar assault upon the New Paradigm?

I would like to make a few more points regarding perception and gold. Many of the forum members have been completely mystified by my poetic outpouring over the last several days. Yet, there is method to my madness.

Why did I create a character by the name of Shorty McGee? Very simply, it is a classic example of New Paradigm tactics at work...except in this case, Shorty McGee is an intellectual construct designed to benefit pro-gold interests.

You see, the New Paradigm disciples seek to portray gold ownership as an anachronism and the people who invest in it as retro-simpletons, country bumpkins, religious zealots, anti-intellectuals, nihilists, and Cassandras. In contrast, New Paradigm disciples are described as sophisticated, techno-savvy, urban, futuristic, 21st century, politically correct, etc. Thus, not only is it necessary for the gold industry to alter the negative mass perception of gold ownership but, to a certain degree, it is imperative the industry changes the favorable mass perception of the New Paradigm disciples as well.

Who is Shorty McGee ( as I designed him ) ? He is a New Paradigm fella who shorts gold and silver...and as I portrayed him, he is a suicidal, exuberantly irrational, whoring, boozing clown...a totally negative personality. In doing so, I utilize the same tactics of the New Paradigm disciples...because they do more than simply act as cheerleaders for index mutual funds, lofty multiple technology stocks, a new computer-in-every-home society, etc. Above and beyond that, they actively defame, diminish and discredit their perceived "opponents" ( most notably, the gold investment industry )

Thus, Shorty McGee is yet another example of a weapon that the gold industry might employee against the New Paradigm disciples. It is a case of fighting fire with fire. If the New Paradigm designs negative, absurd stereotypes of gold industry figures and beliefs, then why is the gold industry failing to mount a similar assault upon the New Paradigm?

Here comes the "last 1/2 hour" sell-off.

They have plenty of time to push it back, BUT I think not today ... next stop 7800. The Fed should have added liquidity. That money is getting used up very fast. Well, they can throw more money on the fire tomorrow.

Nice day for silver.

you please do that at your convenience ?. Thanks.

FWIW time to cover and stand aside or go long for a technical rally,
68 to 70

The biggest questions revolve around three things: wealth, energy and
conflicts. The elites want to know who will come out on top in a global
ranking by wealth, where the major energy sources will be to fuel
consumer-driven economic systems, and where the most dangerous flashpoints -- even globally fatal flashpoints -- are likely to surface.
The answers they're getting may only deepen their unease, suggesting that that a key guarantor for global peace and prosperity -- U.S. control over world oil -- may be waning.

Hardly had it began last week when the Davos World Economic Forum in Geneva offered a fateful projection on wealth ranking. The Forum polled some 1,000 world leaders and CEOs electronically on which country would lead the world in economic growth over the next five years and which would offer the best investment opportunities. The response on the first question was almost unanimous: CHINA. On the second question, the response by a wide margin was also CHINA. The other countries mentioned were all in Asia

http://www.heresy.com.hk/hsy/heresy5.htm

mmmm...Japan's TBond holdings+China's TBond holdings= X% of the overdraft?

Now, one MUST ask, are we seeing what we THINK were seeing?

Aurator@WordThought, you might enjoy this site
http://www.heresy.com.hk/hsy/ideology.htm

The paper bull is in BIG trouble. With the 30 yr bond rates down to record lows over the last few months and market unable to even lick 8,000??? The DOW is lower now then back in August when the rates were 3/4 % hihger.
I say no manipulation can lift it much from where they are now. Only one directionn left:down.

Lurker 777: I caught your post of yesterday. Thanks, I'll add that one to my list of those to take a look at. Sounds like it not only knows it's job but it's nice to look at too.

Silver Bears: I had a couple of silver bears for breakfast this morning. Nice taste and keeps ya coming back for more. Here's hoping my gold brethren will be pulling up a chair soon to enjoy freshly prepared gold bears!

Just out of curiosity, are there any silver bears lurking out there? I'm getting hungry again.

fundaMETAList

bond at 5.718%, Volume on NYSE 618 million shares.

bond at 5.718%, Volume on NYSE 618 million shares.

One month more than doubled to 5.67%

Hope this helps...
net wt .48375 oz of pure
in uncirculated grades
MS-60 & up
( AM wholesale based on 281.50 spot
buy 235 sell 255 )
07 mintage:1203973

Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.10

XAU/Spot Ratio = .245

Silver/Gold Ratio = 46.20

GENERAL: ...that's Ezekiel 7:19.

Time Magazine acknowledges that House of Morgan has been replaced by the House of Rubin. Makes mention of the exquisite timing announcement of direct U.S. involvement in Korea bailout, Christmas Eve.
http://www.pathfinder.com/time/magazine/1998/dom/980112/world.the_rubin_res.html

Isn't AG independent of Clinton & RR? I know RR sits on the FOMC, and Surely BC has others on the committee ( Alice R ) that will do whatever to get AG's job when he is gone. I judge AG to be an honourable man who will do his dead level best to serve the interests of US monetary system. Am I being naive about the man? Personally, I think AG is the best ever in his position. He may have an impossible task at hand - but - "he's da man."

In your exchange with Old Gold about the possibility of CB gold losses by defaults. In the U.S. the Fed would need authorization by Congress for such a replacement. It could not legally print money to purchase the gold.

VRONSKY: ENJOYED YOUR POST

I share your views as written in your
14:47 Post today regarding the size of
the Gold Loan Defaults that we will see
in coming months.

Mega Dittoes, and keep up the good work.

SDRer,Donald,all:

SDRer - enjoyed your 15:42 Davos conference about China emerging a world leader. Did you know the post that you implied was for this year actually has a 2/21/96 date? Probably this years poll would be the similar anyway, given that the Asians are savers, and we are borrowers.

Noticed that Brazil and Mexico went down today. I sold my Brazil mutual funds about 2 months ago, mostly because of Donald's posts about their financial problems. Looks like the South American refuge of investment is finally showing weakness -- perhaps the first four bars of music, as you said SDRer. I wonder when the fat lady sings.

PPT -- Yesterday I posted my converns that the deflation talk by Greenspand and Rudiger Dornbusch may be due to the fact that the PPT has run out of funds. If they have, and secret supplies of cash cannot be located, another pillar of the three-legged stool of the market may be weakening.

Bonds -- One last thought that supports D.A.'s inflation premise -- if Japan and China start selling US treasuries into the dollar rally, that will raise interest rates, not lower them. If the dollars return to the US of A soon -- inflation not deflation may be the name of the game. But -- on the other hand -- if the stock market also goes south, the water is muddied.

Again -- the best thing to do is keep your powder dry, or buy hard gold assets.

Elf, your comment on

"Rising gold stocks today include NEM, NGC, GGO, MDG, PGU, GSR, and CDE. The first six are in the top ten holdings of FSAGX Fidelity Select American Gold. Perhaps there is buying today by FSAGX or other gold mutual funds."

does not go well with the fact that FSAGX shed another 3.5% today.

We still have a long way to go.

Crunch: I agree with you that AG is almost certainly the best Fed Chairman we have ever had. I shudder to think what would happen to us if he stepped down tomorrow. Since he has nearly 4 years to go in his current term, I think he will do whatever he believes is the right thing fo the US ( and the world economy ) . However, he does have to answer to Congress and to the President to some degree, even if the Federal Reserve is independently chartered. I do think he is a man with integrity, but he must work with the system as it stands, and that always means some compromises must be made. Some individuals would be corrupted by this, and lose sight of their long term goals -- but I don't think he would.

I think AG will do his best to stay with us for the next four years.

"Throughout the eventful 24 years of the Restriction [1797-1821, when the issue of gold for banknotes was restricted] the printing and issue of notes was central amongst the Bank's activities and, according to some, it was the overissue of this paper currency which was the root cause of the rise in the price of gold and the collapse of sterling on the Hamburg exchange in 1809...
The Committee's [Commons comittee to inquire into the high price of bullion] report was presented to the House of Commons in June 1810... The problem lay, the Report contended, with the extended issue of notes... by the Bank... Too many notes had been issued - too much money chased too few goods... and the classic formula for inflation was completed.
It was not until 1819, four years after Napoleon's defeat at Waterloo, that the question was revisited...Of the bank men all except Jeremiah Harman and Samuel Thornton now agreed that an increase or decrease in the Bank's note issue affected credit and trade... the Restriction was lifted completely on 1st May 1821 and the Gold Standard, with a fixed price for gold, formally established in Great Britain. The policy was followed worldwide. It was a decision of historic importance for this country leading to a long period of price stability with monetary policy, in effect, on auto-pilot."
-Excerpt from the Bank of England Museum publication, "From Gold to Paper Currency", 1997.
Note: the "the rise in the price of gold and the collapse of sterling" could be seen as the mirror image of the collapse in the price of gold and rise in currencies occurring now in the US and other countries; whereas the price of gold IS rising and the currency collapsing in several Asian countries. The currency is not causing price inflation by chasing too few goods, because it is taken out of circulation by the bull run in the stock markets. I see this as a three-way split; stability with a gold standard, or instability that can go in two different directions- inflation or deflation; a barrowful of Reichsmarks or the bread lines.

=========================================================================
-------NEWS FLASH----CHERAKAZZI SMOKE-SIGNALS NEWS SERVICE------



s texas is absolutely being washed-away a la 1993........the 100 year
FLOOD IS BACK!!!! birch-bark is at a high premium, IF you can find it...

major flooding precipitates major drought this spring and summer!!!!
grains going to the moon this year ( 98 ) . waiting for the train to stop
before climbing aboard........

june 112 bond puts not looking too hot right now.....got a long time
to go though..........worth waiting to see as the volatility increases...
OPTIONS LOVE VOLATILITY.........allaboard!

cherokee!;-------baker-of-the-cod--------lover-of-the-legume------

The Honk Kong Oracle has given another insightful and perhaps even alarming prediction of what currency turmoil to expect in Asia during 1998. It is definitely NOT a pretty picture. Milhouse gives his considered opinion on most major currencies and GOLD.

Gold will be the major beneficiary of the increasing currency
volatility wrought by EMU and the drive to inflate which is
already underway in almost every country. The reason it will
benefit is because it is the only form of money which exists
outside the financial system. As such, it is the only truly effective hedge against inflation. Any method of hedging against inflation which exists within the financial system involves a payment risk. Also, even if your non-gold hedge is 100% effective, you simply end up with a larger quantity of paper.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/milhouse010598.html

Just when you win the fight to stave
off INFLATION, you are bit in the
ass by DEFLATION. AG makes it
plain that he does not want DEFLATION.
Time for the Treasury to go to a
third shift with the printing presses.

The Almighty Dollar

In ( This ) God We
Trust

NEW YORK - Investors
around the world piled into
the dollar and the
American bond market on
Monday, opting for the
perceived safety of U.S.
assets at a time of
increasing global concern
about falling prices,
analysts said.

''The whole deflation issue
was given the official seal
of approval as a legitimate
topic by Fed Chairman
Alan Greenspan in the
speech he gave in Chicago
on Jan. 3,'' said Ed
Yardeni, chief economist at
Deutsche Morgan
Grenfell. ''I haven't had a
chance to count how many
times the word deflation
was mentioned in his
speech, but he kept hitting
at it.''

In fact, the word appeared
17 times in the text of the
speech to American
Economic Association and
American Finance
Association that the
Federal Reserve Board
posted on its Internet site,
although Mr. Greenspan
said he did not consider
deflation to be ''a
significant near-term risk''
for the U.S. economy.

Mr. Yardeni has been
warning about deflation for
months, and after the
Asian crisis that began this
summer, the view has been
gaining adherents. While
some Asian countries'
currencies have collapsed,
the costs of those
countries' exports in dollar
terms have plunged,
putting pressure on
competitors around the
world. The countries with
weak economies and
currencies also are forced
to reduce their imports,
limiting markets for
exporters from other
countries.

The pricing pressures have
been growing since
October, ''when the Asian
contagion began moving to
some of the bigger
centers,'' notably Japan
and South Korea,
according to William
Sullivan, chief
money-market economist
at Morgan Stanley, Dean
Witter.

Indeed, the yen was
notably weak on Monday.
The dollar rose in New
York to 133.565 yen on
Monday, from 132.295 yen
on Friday. The South
Korean won also
weakened, with the dollar
rising to 1,650 won in
Seoul, up from 1,600 won
on Friday and 841 at the
start of 1997.

The dollar also
strengthened against the
main European currencies.
It rose to 1.8256 Deutsche
marks from 1.8035 DM.
Mr. Yardeni said the
appetite for dollars
reflected a ''flight to
quality,'' adding, ''there
are a lot more
uncertainties in Europe
than in the United

States,'' such as the
planned introduction of a
single currency and the
effects the Asian crisis will
have on European
economies.

Mr. Sullivan noted that
European banks have
heavier exposure to South
Korea than their American
counterparts, and
questions remain about
what impact Seoul's debt
problems will have on
other countries.

Much of the money flowing
into dollars Monday found
its way into the Treasury
bond market, where the
yield on the bellwether
30-year issue fell to 5.74
percent from 5.85 percent
on Friday. Monday's yield
was the lowest return since
the government began
regular issues of 30-year
bonds in 1977.

While Mr. Greenspan's
comments about deflation
buoyed the bond market,
Mr. Sullivan said it was
demand for dollars that
was responsible for the big
gains, ''not the other way
around.'' Even with the
falling yields, U.S.
credit-market investments
have higher returns than
those of many other major
countries.

In Germany, for example,
''they have a call-money
rate of 3.30 percent,'' Mr.
Sullivan said, which is far
below the roughly
comparable 5.50 percent
target on federal funds, the
overnight interbank loan
rate in dollars. The high
level of federal funds
relative to the 30-year
bond means the Fed is now
considered unlikely to
raise interest rates and
may be inclined to cut
them, analysts said.

For the 30-year issue, Mr.
Sullivan said the yield
could fall to as low as 5.50
percent by February.
Looking further ahead,
Mr. Yardeni said the
return would be 5.00
percent at the end of this
year and 4.00 percent at
the end of 1999, with the
federal funds rate falling to
3.00 percent.

In fact, Mr. Yardeni is
predicting a U.S. recession
because of the deflationary
pressures he sees and the
effect on the economy of
the Year 2000 problem, in
which some computer
programs will misfunction
because they will not
recognize the turn of the
millennium.

The fallout from Asia
means that not all bond
prices will benefit, Mr.
Sullivan said, noting that
those issued by
corporations with exposure
to the region are likely to
come under pressure.

Against other major
currencies, the dollar rose
to 6.1095 French francs
from 6.0346 francs Friday,
and to 1.4823 Swiss francs
from 1.4650 francs. The
pound fell to $1.6295 from
$1.6455

International Herald
Tribune, Jan. 6, 1998

Whats with the posts about Biblical prophesy? Is this evolving to the Weekly World News of postings? Most of us are reading/posting here simply to discuss how to make a few bucks.
What difference does it make if we die in a collapse of civilization or are killed by a drunken driver? Im more concerned with the dangers of driving home from work tonight.
Unless we were raised on a farm, just about all of us are going to be dead in a few weeks if society collapses. So what if you have food, guns and ammo? What are you going to drink? How will you cook? Do you really think that you can cut all of the firewood you need with an ax? What happens when you catch the flu and cant get antibiotics?
Since Im a Christian, I am not afraid of dying. Its living that scares the hell out of me!

Japan's Finance Minister announced plans on Jan. 6th to take legal steps to place restrictions on short selling of shares ( borrowing and selling shares that are expected to fall in price, then buying them back later to return them, while making a profit on the fall in price ) .

Some of you may remember August 29th 1997 when Malaysia banned "manipulative short-selling" of stocks, which was soon followed by investors dumping Malaysian shares in a massive sell-off, and the ringgit sinking to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar for 24 years. The ban on short-selling was reversed within a week after a special meeting of the United Malays National Organization party.

This may turn out to be another step towards the economic events that will bring back the bull market for gold.

Antibiotics won't help with the Flu, that's a viral infection... BTW, I'm a decent shot. I'll take a few with me...... :- ) )

For those interested in where the bottom for gold is, here is an interesting chart presentation:

http://www.intersurf.com/~vor/gold.html

The overall envelope is turning up!

CJSI -- Precisely. The in/de-flation coin can land either way with about the same overall consequences for the people. Both cases dictate not enough money available for their needful purchases! Only a truly stable, set-in-stone currency, can alleviate the whole problem. Too late for this go-around though!

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/980106/international/stories/korea_2.html

What if they let gold go free. Let it find its natural price in the market place and tied the dollar to it. In a moonshot gold could very well hit $10,000 an oz.

Would this be a possible scenario? Or something like it?

Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after trading today:

Gold: Fell 11,121 troy ounces to 476,646

Silver: Fell 108,296 troy ounces to 110,620,130

Silver closed back above the pshychologically important $6 level. The bull market is still intact!

No, not Japanese or Korean banks, American banks! Perhaps the chickens are coming home with Asian Flu ( i.e. the banks have loan exposure to Asian companies, or Asian-connected US companies ) ...

Merrill Lynch has apparently lowered its ratings of estimated earnings for the following banks, whose shares dropped in morning trading by the percentages shown in brackets:

Citicorp ( 4.8% )

Chase Manhattan ( 3.7% )

BankAmerica ( 3.4% )

One wonders how much gold these banks have got.

tolerant1: Certainly, with a true supply/demand market for gold, the price would jump significantly from where it is now, but I cant see $1000+ for awhile -- there would be way too much competition and sellers to keep the price down. Now when physical demand finally exceeds physical supply -- thing should get very interesting! Too bad we are still dealing with so much 'virtual' demand...

For you gold chartists out there lookin' for the bottom - check this chart out:

http://www.intersurf.com/~vor/gold.html

The envelope is turning up!

Donald, Vronsky: I would like to add something to your excellent posts about how CB gold loan defaults might unwind. Firstly, one could argue that gold the was "sold" by Central banks in the form of defaulted loans was "illegal" in the first place, because many central banks are not allowed to privately sell their gold, or at least have to officially report it. Hence if they surreptitiously buy gold on the open market, no one would be the wiser.

However, if the Central banks actually increase their gold stores, that will be noticed, as that will go on their balance sheet. I wonder -- who checks to see that the gold that the central banks say they have is actually in the vaults?

Cease and desist on the religious instruction. However your views on precious metals are appreciated.

Steve Jobs walks out on CNBC interview. Talking head continually Knocks Apple, and during the interview started to badger Jobs on the CEO position at Apple, when Jobs said we agreed not to talk about this - got up took the mic. off and walked out. The CNBC jerk had been negative yesterday and all day today prior to the interview.

CNBC is owned by NBC a partner with Microsoft in MSNBC. The same negative reporting and discussions occur about Apple as do about Gold.

The very people who should have the most current information are the least informed - the media. As a result they just revert to the narrow knowledge base and brainwashed ideas that politicians and corporations have programed them with.

Even now, Apple with a positive earnings report today, they slip in negative comments. Apple was one of the few stocks that was up today, +20%, and they barely mention that.

Dont they know that Apple and Pixar have the same banker as they do - Goldman Sachs? They better be careful. Microsoft has fragmented his market, and Apple will release their new OS , Raphsody, soon - it is cross platform and awesome. Apple has some big hitters in its camp - does this talking head realize this or is he just trying to kiss up to Bill Gates?

They approach Gold the same way, and I have no doubt that if they could and were interviewing Gold, Gold would get up and walk out on them also. Can anyone or anything, including Gold, withstand the constant attacks of the establishment and their continual misrepresentation of the truth?

Well now Bob must have called CNBC - they are reporting Apples positive earnings.

Contrary to CNBC Apple is not dead nor is Gold.

I was feeling a little depressed and down, then I went to pick up my NEW YEAR gold coins. I feel much better now.

Have YOU picked up your NEW YEAR gold? SDRer have you picked up your NEW YEAR gold???

T.Rose:
I talked to the coin dealer about assays. He said it cost about $50. He said the biggest problem is the time delay to have the assay done. HOw is everything soming along. Well, I hope.

Echo Bay Mines - Outlook -4: Annual Lupin Costs Seen At $3M

Echo Bay Mines Ltd. ( ECO ) said the Lupin mine is being placed on "care and maintenance" to maintain the "integrity" of the mine and enable it to reopen when gold prices improve. It said annual care and maintenance costs are expected to be about $3 million.

It said about 500 employees are affected.

The company said operations are being scaled back at the McCoy/Cove mine and costs will be reduced significantly by implementation of a variety of actions until gold prices improve. It said mining activities will be limited to the higher-grade portions of the Cove open pit. Mining is being discontinued in the smaller, higher-cost McCoy pit, it said.

The company said remediation work on the Cove pit wall is being postponed at least until the second half of 1998, pending an improvement in the gold price. It said there will be a reduction of about 20% of the 450 employees at the site. Other cost-saving measures will also be implemented, it said. It didn't elaborate.

Echo Bay said it will provide a compensation package to all affected employees.

Echo Bay is a mining company.

"Dow Jones News Service"
"Copyright ( c ) 1998, Dow Jones & Company, Inc."

Apple may not be dead but it sure as heck is sickly. Gold is dead. I predict $140 gold at the bottom.

JTF ( Missing Central Bank Gold from Gold Loans? )

ReutersNews: FIRST DEFAULT ON GOLD PAYMENTS

CONSOLIDATED-NEVADA DEFAULTS ON GOLD LOAN TO ING FINANCIAL GROUP

THIS IS MONUMENTAL NEWS! It is testament to the well-grounded suspicions of many experts that there will be many GOLD LOAN DEFAULTS, forcing Central Banks and large commercial banks to EAT the Gold Loans extended.

Please recall ING is the large international group which picked up Barings Bank's marbles when it failed a couple or so years ago due to non-traditional banking operations and a rogue trader!!! This was a 200 year-old English bank.

Is this the first crack in the dike which WILL cause the deluge run on GOLD, as frantic international bankers and Central Bankers begin to cover their very exposed financial BUTTS? Gold Loans/Leasing is considered by many professional observers as NOT CONSERVATIVE NOR TRADITIONAL BANKING OPERATIONS.

This begs - NO DEMANDS - the crucial questions: SHOULD
CENTRAL BANKS BE ALLOWED TO SPECULATE WITH THE PUBLIC'S MONEY IN THE COMMODITIES MARKETS? INDEED, ARE CENTRAL BANKERS EVEN QUALIFIED FOR THESE HIGHLY RISKY COMMODITY MARKET OPERATIONS? ARE THESE TRADITIONAL CONSERVATIVE BANKING OPERATIONS? WHY ARE THESE NON-BANKING TRANSACTIONS NOT REVIEWED BY CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE TO ENSURE AS TO THEIR PRUDENCE AND SAFETY? WHAT COULD BE THE DIRE CONSEQUENCES IF THE FED MISCALCULATES IN ITS GOLD SPECULATIONS?
COULD THIS RESULT IN ANOTHER S&L DEBACLE, COSTING THE PUBLIC HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF TAXPAYERS' HARD EARNED MONEY? WHO IS TO BE
HELD IN ACCOUNT IF ALL GOES AWRY?

This is transcendental news which eventually may spark a sea-change in the heretofore traditional investment paradigm. See original announcement.

The Red Baron provides a searching and poignant account of reported Central Banks Unorthodox Gold Operations GOLD PRICE CONTROL BY CENTRAL BANKS -
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron801.html

JTF ( Missing Central Bank Gold from Gold Loans? )

ReutersNews: FIRST DEFAULT ON GOLD PAYMENTS

CONSOLIDATED-NEVADA DEFAULTS ON GOLD LOAN TO ING FINANCIAL GROUP

THIS IS MONUMENTAL NEWS! It is testament to the well-grounded suspicions of many experts that there will be many GOLD LOAN DEFAULTS, forcing Central Banks and large commercial banks to EAT the Gold Loans extended.

Please recall ING is the large international group which picked up Barings Bank's marbles when it failed a couple or so years ago due to non-traditional banking operations and a rogue trader!!! This was a 200 year-old English bank.

Is this the first crack in the dike which WILL cause the deluge run on GOLD, as frantic international bankers and Central Bankers begin to cover their very exposed financial BUTTS? Gold Loans/Leasing is considered by many professional observers as NOT CONSERVATIVE NOR TRADITIONAL BANKING OPERATIONS.

This begs - NO DEMANDS - the crucial questions: SHOULD
CENTRAL BANKS BE ALLOWED TO SPECULATE WITH THE PUBLIC'S MONEY IN THE COMMODITIES MARKETS? INDEED, ARE CENTRAL BANKERS EVEN QUALIFIED FOR THESE HIGHLY RISKY COMMODITY MARKET OPERATIONS? ARE THESE TRADITIONAL CONSERVATIVE BANKING OPERATIONS? WHY ARE THESE NON-BANKING TRANSACTIONS NOT REVIEWED BY CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE TO ENSURE AS TO THEIR PRUDENCE AND SAFETY? WHAT COULD BE THE DIRE CONSEQUENCES IF THE FED MISCALCULATES IN ITS GOLD SPECULATIONS?
COULD THIS RESULT IN ANOTHER S&L DEBACLE, COSTING THE PUBLIC HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF TAXPAYERS' HARD EARNED MONEY? WHO IS TO BE
HELD IN ACCOUNT IF ALL GOES AWRY?

This is transcendental news which eventually may spark a sea-change in the heretofore traditional investment paradigm. See original announcement.

The Red Baron provides a searching and poignant account of reported Central Banks Unorthodox Gold Operations GOLD PRICE CONTROL BY CENTRAL BANKS -
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron801.html

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/980106/international/stories/korea_3.html

IMHO, Generals comments were very relevant to our subject here, Gold, for unless one has an understanding of Golds place in history and that includes an appreciation of one of modern civilizations oldest history books the Bible; one will find ones self being narrow minded and subject to failure during a period of crises such as the one we find ourselves in today.

Quite frankly, as Joseph Campbell said, the Bible is still one of modern societys best softwares for successful operation, and I suggest that it is as relevant as the rest of the stuff you, I , and others post here.

HighRise

Silverbaron- I have a question or two about that chart can you give me a call raydm@iamerica.net

Thanks!

Tally Ho

I love that line. What is it quoted from?

``Time is the most valuable thing you cannot fritter away,'' one analyst said. ``Every day you wait, more money seeps out.''

It is from :
Tuesday January 6, 6:52 pm Eastern Time

Global banks split on Seoul's role in rescue plan

Looming over the Korea talks was the shadow of Latin America's debt refinancing of the 1980s, when U.S. banks pushed a major restructuring
of Latin debt after Mexico, Brazil and Argentina defaulted on vast government borrowing.

In the talks on Korea, some banks reportedly have sought to turn the process into a Latin-style refinancing, even though the Korean case involves
mostly private debt holdings.

In Washington, a U.S. Treasury Department official said Tuesday that South Korea must act quickly to extend the maturities of its external debts.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980106/banking_korea_2.html

The web page of World Economic Forum ( Carl-note private key entry for the
special folks ) This years agenda: Managing Volatility Im sure we can agree this is a timely subject.

http://www.weforum.org/

Forbes, Dec 1996, FYI--a good backgrounder
At the World Economic Forum in 1990, West German
Chancellor Helmut Kohl and East German Prime Minister
Hans Modrow met in a session that accelerated German
reunificationwhile in another quarter of Davos, F.W. de
Klerk, then president of South Africa, had his first private
meeting with Nelson Mandela of the African National
Congress and Mangosuthu Buthelezi, president of the
Inkatha Freedom Party.

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/120296/5813067a.htm

The Atlantic, December 1997: A possible explanation of Freehs presence in 96?
Surveillance, too, will become more important on an urbanized
planet; it is worth noting that the etymology of the word
"police" is polis, Greek for "city." Because tottering
democracies and despotic militaries frighten away the investors
required to create jobs for violence-prone youths, more hybrid
regimes will perforce emerge. They will call themselves
democracies, and we may go along with the lie -- but, as in
Peru, the regimes will be decisively autocratic. ( Hobbes wrote
that Thucydides "praiseth the government of Athens, when . . .
it was democratical in name, but in effect monarchical under
Pericles." Polybius, too, recommended mixed regimes as the
only stable form of government. ) Moreover, if a shortage of
liquidity affects world capital markets by 2000, as Klaus
Schwab, the president of the World Economic Forum, and
other experts fear may happen, fiercer competition among
developing nations for scarcer investment money will accelerate
the need for efficient neo-authoritarian governments.

http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/97dec/democ.htm


A.Goose@New.Gold
I get my very first gold to hold in my covetous hand tomorrow!
I asked about Gold Pandas...none were issued in 1997. Does anybody
know why?

1. Everything I read this afternoon seemed to mention a horrific liquidity crisis circa 2000. ( This was, by and large, reading matter from 95-6-7. Dr. Klaus Schwab, founder of World Economic Forum, Davos who also teaches at the University of Geneva ( business, of course ) seems particularly worried. So, what is happening now may have surprised the peasants, but not the lords-of-the-manors.

JTF@Always.Thinking--Yes, I knew it was 96...it is almost impossible
to find informative stuff even after-the-fact, and always a time
lapse. Frustrating. They have a meeting in Beijing in April. The first
time one of their gatherings has been called a "Business Meeting"--
perhaps I'm paying too much attention to the words?

Donald : That's nothing. No sacrifice is too great when the patriotic fervor is aroused. Recently there were pictures of Iraqi men and women cheerfully marching off to form human shields around military targets.

Bill2j ( Apples & Gold ) : Gold to $140?? ... Interesting concept. What is your reasoning based on? Inquiring minds would like to know.

Tuesday January 6, 7:59 pm Eastern Time

Japan worried about excessive yen weakness--MOF

TOKYO, Jan 7 ( Reuters ) - Japan is worried about excessive weakness of the yen and will take appropriate steps as needed, Haruhiko Kuroda,
director-general of the Ministry of Finance's ( MOF ) International Finance Bureau, told reporters on Wednesday.

Kuroda, however, declined comment about currency market intervention.

``As Finance Minister ( Hiroshi Mitsuzuka ) said yesterday, we are concerned about the excessive weakness of the yen. We have also been saying
that we will take appropriate steps as needed,'' Kuroda said.

``It is important for us to reiterate ( these comments ) ,'' Kuroda added.

``U.S. Treasury Secretary ( Robert ) Rubin has also been saying that he shares Japan's concerns about the yen's weakness,'' Kuroda said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980106/japan_worried_about__1.html

A.Goose's comments: Now they head rice bowl in hand to beg for help from the mightly round eye Rubin.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980106/japan_s_sakakibara_t_4.html

So sad to see the mighty Japanese come to this.

"Sakakibara, in charge of international affairs at Tokyo's finance ministry, is currently on a week-long trip to Britain and the United States.
Following his talks in Washington he was expected to visit New York for meetings with commercial bankers as well as New York Fed President
William McDonough "

Wake up! Sell your U.S. treasuries and buy gold. Tell the world before, during and after. Only then will your currency problem end. Please stop making these weak announcements on a daily basis. It just makes you look worse.

( I do not intend to offend any of my Asian friends - Japan and Asia must wake up. )

....Notice that CNN seems to do a AWFUL lot of entertainment

shows, stories ( mainly what's on at the box office ) ? Notice that they seem to do more today than this time last year? Notice they are owned by Time Warner , who might just be in the movie business. Maybe I should take my gold investment and plant it over there. Vertical integration , same kind of thing happened in 1929 but back then weren't they were called "Trusts"?

They were not healthy for us back then are they healthy for us now?

BART: Ya ever goin ta fix this site???

Recently returned from a trip to India. I will

share some gold-related "grassroots news", which

some of you may find interesting.

The good news first. The first thing I noticed

when I landed at Bombay was the long wait ( over

an hour ) at the gold importers counter in the

Indian customs. An year earlier, the same place

had no wait at all. I had a chance to talk to

one of the couriers. He said he would have

liked to bring more, but 30 Kg of gold ( along

with other luggage ) is all his body could

handle.

Went to visit my jeweler friend's shop, but

found him way too busy to have a chat, so I met

him after business hours. He said he had lost

the equivalent of an year's income due to drop

in the value of his inventory ( Indians do not

have access to gold futures markets for

hedging. ) He did not look depressed though, and

thought gold is not likely to go much lower.

"People here are buying so much gold, that India

will absorb all the gold the central banks want

to dump", he claimed. I found it hard to

believe his claims.

While the jewelry demand is very strong, what is

really driving the gold market in India, is an

imminent crackdown on tax evaders, who are using

gold to park their undeclared income. ( India

has just concluded a tax amnesty period and a

vigorous enforcement phase is about to begin. )

Now the bad news. I feel that the current

strong demand will cool off in a few months, as

the income tax related buying is a temporary

phenomenon. An even stronger reason is the El

Nino, which has brought untimely rains to most

parts of India. In one state that I visited, 90

percent of the districts had major crop losses,

with about 10 percent of the districts expecting

near 100 percent crop loss. Many other parts of

the country are reporting similar problems.

Since the normal gold buying in India is closely

tied to a good harvest, expect weak demand in

the coming months, and possibly some selling.

Like other Asian countries, but not to the same

extent, India is also experiencing an industrial

slowdown, which may be a recession.

read about tomorrow today............ here on kitco-------

=========================================================================

s texas, already 15" above average precipitation levels,
is flooding like hell!!! raining cats, dogs, and lgbito's......

the ground is super-saturated and the 'bayou's' at flood stage.....

as chaos and flux would have it.......more is on the way..much more....

chaos and flux would have their way with the paper-tiger...and they will,
as it has already started......mad cow disease, chicken fever,
vegetable fever, AND NOW.................paper-tiger-fever---105* and
climbing...........

the paper-tsunami of all times is inbound into norte america......
there have been suggestions of its' possibility....yet those
in the know said no.......it can not happen here......sounded
kind-of queer.....like lgbito.......

in deep water a tsunami would appear as a mere ripple......yet when
the shallows are reached.......it rises in all its' un-stoppable
awesome might............and totally obliterates EVERYTHING in its'
path.......

the ink-tsunami approaching was spawned in the manuverings of the
us economical machinations that span the globe........

NOTHING EXPERIENCES UN-INTERRUPTED GROWTH! this is un-natural....
not tolerated in physics or nature.......who says there is a
new paradigm in stocks and equities? who said it? who believes it?
the door is fixing to slam shut........for the last time....and
those left in, will be lucky to have a dollar on a dime.....


cherokee!; ) --administrator-of-the-fever-reducer-----

werner

.

Consider March $MXYOF ( Mexico Exchange Index 130 Puts, which don't expire until 3rd Friday in March ) . The underlying $MXY Index closed at 134.64, down 4.98 ( 3.57% ) . The October low was about 105. It's a double play against the Peso and Mexican stocks. Check out the classic head and shoulders top at http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/_charts/achart.htx
To see the potential gain, check out options prices at http://cboe.pcquote.com/cgi-bin/cboeopt.exe?TICKER=$mxy&ALL=1

That story about Koreans giving up their private gold for the cause reminds me of World War II when I was a kid. On the town green they built a chicken wire enclosure. Seemed like it was about 20 feet square and ten feet high. A sign said that when the bin was filled with scrap aluminum it would be enough to melt down and build a warplane. We were a town of 5000 and the bin was filled in no time with mostly aluminum cooking pots.
Everyone was pretty proud to help out. I guess thats the way the Koreans feel. Looking back now I wonder who made a buck on the aluminum. Someday the Koreans will be wondering the same about their gold.

Happy New Year and good fortune to all here. I am a regular here under another handle, but have preferred not to reveal my profession. I must have committed some egregious sin in a previous life to be an ER doc in this one! It does have its rewards though, so I ain't complaining. Just wanted to express my gratitude and good wishes to the fine individuals who hang out at Kitco. You have been a comfort and uplift to me over the last several months.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980106/great_basin_gold_1.html

.

PT109...struck by Japanese flotilla...dissected...sinking S.O.S.....MAY DAY...MAY DAY...Paper Tiger January 09....MAYDAY PT109...Distress...Paper Tiger 1/09.

Just read that Korean car makers are cutting prices in India
drastically- something like 20 percent, in Indian Rupees.
In US dollars, it is almost a 30 percent reduction from a year
ago. Wonder if/when we will see this kind of deflation in US.
I hope this is not a going-out-of-business sale.

PT109...struck by Japanese flotilla...dissected...sinking S.O.S.....MAY DAY...MAY DAY...Paper Tiger January 09....MAYDAY PT109...Distress...Paper Tiger 1/09. Sunk.

.

.

Is this a great site or what. I've been mostly lurking for the past few weeks. Thanks Bart !

HK 1.56%, OZ 1.2%, Malaysia 2%, Philippines 3.78%, Singapore 3.42%

EB: 'Big Country' is doin a # on Shaq......

Just got back.

Thanks for your post of 14:24. An excellent reference site. I've got it
bookmarked for daily perusal.

What a coincidence! PBS is running a show or is it a series on Rhodes ( As in the Rhodesian Rhodes ) . I love it! Names like Deep levels and Vaal Reefs keep on coming up... What's a little bloodshed, violence, and history ( slanted history? Never on PBS... )

Now all we need is for gold to kick some butt. Unfortunately, the long term charts look very ill indeed...

ER Physician -- Pump some epinephrine in to this patient and get the defibrillator out...

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980106/brazil_central_bank__1.html

Miro and others,

A must read from Ed Yardeni. See were we are heading. Check it out!!!

http://www.yardeni.com/public/y_19980105.pdf.

Happy New Year to all!

Another one of my opinions......

Barrick Gold ( ABX ) has not completed it's share buyback and there are still many shares shorted. This leads me to believe through my very sophisticated analysis that the gold price has been driven low till these
guys and the ECB complete their plans.

I still think gold will hit $450 sometime this year. A Bull Riser will begin right after the European Central Bank ( ECB ) states its true intentions as to the amount of gold it will hold.

Of course, they will fix the price of gold much higher in order to make the ECB paper money more credible or safeworthy.

farfel: I think you have the wrong audience. I doubt you are completely correct when you say:

"On the other hand, I don't believe the investing public at large are primarily "technicians." Rather, they are primarily creatures of emotion with incredibly short memories."

They are not technicians true enough. The investing public may be creatures of emotion. But the investing public are not the group who are going to buy at this price or for the next $200. The near term buyers are the "pros" whether they are technicians or bankers or traders. Changing their perception of gold is an unlikely event because they are pros and will buy gold for what it is worth or less -except for their mistakes.

The people who took gold from about the 600 to the 850 level were the emotional people who were buying 1-2-10 oz wafers of gold and who are the ones that are open to perceptual manipulation. They are not likely to buy something when it is down with the hope it will go up. They will buy when it is significantly up --I'm guessing about $400+. Like most amateurs they get in too late and provide the pros with profits. When gold goes upto about $400 the group of gold gurus will also arrive on TV nightly and in your mail box daily-- the Ruffs, McAvitys, Aden sisters and their next generation. Then the perception of these "investing" folk will change and they will line up around the banks again. And they will soon be separated from their money as the saying goes. Anyway that's my view on the matter. Give my regards to Shorty.

Panda: If Gold were a patient, the question I would have to answer right now is, "Gold-- a Good Buy or a Good-Bye?' My medical opinion on this patient is B-U-Y. Good fortune to us.

see... http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980106/foreigners_net_selle_1.html

Boy does the media do a really good job at creating negative sentiment!!!

Now they're saying there is going to be a glut of gold on the market from the 'gold' collections Korea is undertaking. And I find that really insulting.

http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html

Try this one as well, similar but from a different viewpoint.

Hong Kong -4.04%
Malaysia -2.47%
Philippines -4.35%
Singapore -3.47%

GOOD POST!

ER Physician -- I know one thing. There are a LOT of people working! I've never seen the major highways around here so jammed for so long during the commuting hours ( which has grown in length, I might add... ) . If this is a what a depression is like, I'd hate to see what the recovery would look like!

What is the point of the above? Inflation.

If they choose to believe in deflation here, then so be it. I shall consult fresh chicken entrails daily for the best entry price in gold...

. :- ) )

crystal ball---

i have no info this indices....what is the cost of this
march130 put? which exchange trades it?

I was going to buy a few gold coins tomorrow, but..

I would like some input as to where you folks here at this

Kitco BB think gold is going. I'm looking for a consensus on what everyone thinks is the bottom.

Honk Kong -4.23%
Malaysia -2.43%
Philippines -4.68%
Singapore -3.65%

I'll stick to the Simpsons as my future indicator on the direction of the price of gold~~~~~~~~~~~

10 tons of gold is nothing given the 1700 ton annual supply deficit.
The gold sale is actually bullish for gold because it will reinforce
the position of gold as the central bank asset of last resort. Another
words if the Korean central bank had had a meaningful gold reserve for
emergency use, it wouldn't have to humiliate itself by begging its citizens to turn in their gold. Other central banks will draw a lesson
from this and be less disposed to sell their ultimate emergency asset.

+6 and counting----this week ---something wicked this way comes.....

the hong kong chicken choker is working his magic amongst the
chorrizo bars of china......the north and south american
continent is next........he was last seen riding the crest
of the paper-tsunami as it passed hilo heading east.......
the brave beast is a surfer tam bien.....he can do it all....

let it rain.......there is no gain with-out pain!

how much pain has been un-fairly dealt gold? the pain....the gain.....
strength as no sleepwalking paper-fairy could know....let the games
begin......time for paper-pain! give-it-up......

the hour is at hand........the BOND-BOMB has been in the planning
for many a moon.........control the controller from with-in....

!; ) ----ssmbbuwdo----------allaboard---------

According to the October 17, 1997 issue of the Year 2000 Outlook, an e-mail weekly service of the Information Technology Association of America ( ITAA ) , Arthur Gross, the Chief Information Officer at the IRS, spoke at their industry gathering in McLean, Virginia [ http://www.itaa.org/year2000.htm]. Apparently, he is as concerned about
his agencys Y2K problem as I surmised from the RFC. He was quoted as
saying,

"Failure to achieve compliance with Year 2000 will jeopardize our
way of living on this planet for some time to come."

Hong Kong -4.02%
Malaysia -2.46%
Philippines -4.91%
Singapore -4.00%

Selby ( You got the Wrong Guys ) : This post had another gem in it. .....Some day perhaps, we will have the opportunity to share an Old Style or two. With the express intent of allowing me to hear more of your good sense. .... it is sorely needed. And, just perhaps,through the magic of osmosis, some of that good sense will sink in.

Panda, You might be right about inflation. Most people I talk to are saying expenses are rising. Wages are rising now in the health care field as well. I must say though, that the case for deflation is strong as well. It's like an irresistable force meeting an immoveable object.

Tantalus Rex ( European Central Bank ) : At what price, do you believe, they will fix the price of gold? And, if they do so, do you also believe they are willing to defend it? ..... If they are unwilling to defend the price in the market, it will make little difference what they do.

Well folks, I knew that as soon as I reentered the market that would be the push to move gold yet lower. However, I may be bloody but not bowed. We shall overcome in the end fellow goldbugs. As was said of a mini-skirted young lady, the bottom is in sight. Here's my submission for the evening.

It was slightly before Thanksgiving. The trip went reasonably well, and this guy was ready to go back. The airport, on the other end, had turned a tacky red and green, and loudspeakers blared annoying elevator renditions of cherished Christmas carols.

Being someone who took Christmas very seriously, and being slightly tired, he was not in a particularly goodmood.

Going to check in his luggage ( which, for some reason, had become one suitcase with entirely new clothes ) , he saw hanging mistletoe. Not real mistletoe, but very cheap plastic with red paint on some of the rounder parts and green paint on some of the flatter and pointier parts, that could be taken for mistletoe only in a very Picasso sort of way.

With a considerable degree of irritation and nowhere else to vent it, he said to the attendant, "Even if I were not married, I would not want to kiss you under such a ghastly mockery of mistletoe."

"Sir, look more closely at where the mistletoe is."

( pause )

"Ok, I see that it's above the luggage scale, which is the place you'd have to step forward for a kiss."

"That's not why it's there."

( pause )

"Ok, I give up. Why is it there?"

"It's there so you can kiss your luggage goodbye."

Far-Eastern stock markets are being literally WASTED TONIGHT! It's a debacle... a blood-bath! This WILL inevitablly affect the rest of the world! The Domino Effect is highly contagious! The ULTIMATE flight to safety will be to the immemorial refuge: G-O-L-D!!!!!

Hong Kong -4.74%
Malaysia -2.80%
Philippines -4.77%
Singapore -4.05%

South China Morning Post, Wed Jan 7, 1998

1. Region crushed in US dollar stampede
Asian currencies and equity markets were yesterday again crushed under a scramble for US dollars.

2. Jakarta issue delay blow to Peregrine
Regional investment bank Peregrine Investments Holdings, which is attempting to shore up its capital base, yesterday received a blow when an Indonesian firm that owes it millions of US dollars
had a rights issue delayed..
http://www.scmp.com/news/business/topbiz.idc

NE Asian Crisis--Special Section ( less western orientation )
Bank offers early retirement to cut staff and costs

One of South Korea's few profitable banks,Kookmin Bank, is seeking to trim up to a third of its staff to cut costs and is offering 4,000 employees an early retirement package. Full Story
http://www.scmp.com/news/special/imfkorea/imfkorea.asp

Anatomy of a Typical Crisis:
..the awareness on the part of a considerable segment of the speculating community that a rush for liquidity--to get out of other assets and into money--may develop, with disastrous consequences for the prices of goods and securities, and leaving some speculative borrowers unable to pay off their loans. As distress persists, speculators realize, gradually or suddenly, that the market CANNOT go higher. It is time to withdraw. The race out of real or long-term financial assets and into money may turn into a stampede.

enough is enough of this undstanding garbage.

Get Camdesuss!

Ohhhhhhhh, that felt good.

You confirmed my own prejudices concerning DROOY. I bought into it later than most, so didn't have to watch the steady grind down. And frankly its relative lack of volatility has been a comfort after following the hebephrenic North American markets this year. When I got around to looking at the chart again today ( sometimes I can't bear to look at a chart I know is losing ground when I've made up my mind to buy and hold no matter what ) I was pleased to see that it has leveled off and indeed gained a nickle or two.

http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/g/D/DROOY.html

ER Physician: Good to learn you're still lurking! I'd turn the story around a bit and say that the terminal patient is paper/electronic money. We've had some DVT's ( Baring's, Orange County, Mexico ) , a TIA ( Hong Kong ) , and a PE ( South Korea ) . Lurking out there is that little clot ( some key world bank ) that may precipitate the final financial coronary! Actually I'd prefer a slow dwindling process, if it's in the cards -- chronic renal failure on dialysis?

Don McIlvany ( just got his Jan newsletter today ) actually compares the dominant paper/electronic money -- suppressing the naturally stronger gold to the "big money" medical drug establishment suppressing the alternative medicine/health food industry ( vitE,vitC, selenium ) -- all the proven nutritional elements that have been ignored -- some known for 20 years! I have Linus Pauling's original book on vit C, by the way. Interesting reading. The analogy is not complete as there are excellent medicines made by our drug industry, it is just that there are some very cheap nutrients purified from natural sources that work even better that the commercial ones, and with virtually no side effects! Linus Pauling said that multi-gram doses of VitC reduce excercise-induced muscle pain in his 20 year old book -- which I discovered purely by chance! Also seemed to help my wife's shortness of breath when she got total body muscle pain from the flu! One of my colleagues just got an MI, and is taking Coenzyme Q, with apparent benefit.

My opinion about gold right now is that we are still in a bear market-- a few more months, but you can see by the tenor of the posts here that the turning point is very soon -- probably months. Gold stocks will be a good buy after a major market correction, and pre 1993 gold coins are safe now -- but you probably know all of this already! What I am doing is buying gold stocks on dips, and selling them at the peaks before the next downturn. I'm holding silver stocks. The El Nino is likely to cause commodity prices to skyrocket in the spring -- Europe Mexico and South America may be hit harder than us. If so the commodity price rally may be the final straw to turn gold around.

Cherokee: The General has his book and you have yours. Of the two, I enjoy excerpts from yours much the more. It makes sense even when I don't understand completely. Cheers Amigo.

Much has been made of the downward plunge in gold prices during 1996 and 1997. Monetary officials as well as government officials around the world have advertised the fact and led the public at large to believe that this drop is an indication that fiat
megabyte money is "King of the Hill", that all is well with our
monetary system, and that we will all live happily ever after. It is the author's hope that THIS PAPER HAS DISPELLED THIS MYTH in the mind's of the people who read it.

Analyst Miller sees regent years IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE in paper assets ( stocks & bonds ) as a new chapter for the classic work Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. He, like George Bernard Shaw, votes for GOLD:

"If you have to choose between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability and intelligence of the members of the government. And with due respect to these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold."

The Summary includes an extensive SUGGESTED READING LIST, his recommended Internet Gold Links, and other pertinent information sources:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/jmiller123197.html

SDRer: We forget that SEAsia is still in trouble. The US dollar is not going to falter, despite Japanese or Chinese sales until the SEAsia turmoil lessens. The world is still on a dollar standard.

I think we all underestimate the magnitude of the trouble elsewhere. By comparison our dollar problems are minor -- at least for now.

Did you see the posts about the downgraded American banks? With the dropping interest rate spread, as well as losses in foreing investment -- this would be expected. I am also watching Brazil and Canada very carefully. If the dollar tug of war going on becomes bullish, we may have a markedly reduced number of trading partners very soon.

I wonder --- do you think S Korea is going to sell us cars at a 30% discount? Our local auto industry would be up in arms!

ER Physician -- sorry about that!

According to our local Ford dealer, Ford owns about 10% of the stock of Kia Motors. And you can get a fully equipped Kia SUV, comparable to a $35k Mercedes SUV for about $18k. For real, leather seats and all.

earl----

i defer to your highly regarded opinion.......

your seat awaits ( front row ) , in pristine condition....ted, the
keeper of the flame, has prepared the hubbly-bubbly
for your arrival......ss#1.......the best for the best!

the yamaha will be cranked-up with gold teeth by steely dan--
----------------------the best for the best--------

thanks-my friend---------

The auto industry is already screaming loud and clear and on National TV.

The flame burns brightly on my watch

In regard to your question on when to buy gold coins,
just follow the rule:"Do it today, tomorrow it may be illegal".

Hong Kong -5.12%
Malaysia -3.48%
Philippines -4.02%
Singapore -4.27%

Vronsky: Fascinating post! My guess is that for now most of the average people in SE Asia will be at near subsistence level, and will not be buying gold -- at least for now. Those that have gold already will be fairly well off. But -- as soon as prosperity returns in some measure to that part of the world, all inhabitants will demonstrate a healthy distrust of paper money, and a marked preference for gold.

ted----

-------and that flame must never be extinguished!!!!

This is my first post in this group and therefore...Greetings to all!

With the price of gold holding at the $280 level I am wondering what the groups thoughts are on the short term up could be.The latest downturn the second of two dipps could be a premetive for a short rally and we can see a level of around $295-$300 again

on the back of slightly hightened consumer interest. If India with deregulation as a driving force could become a consumer again maybe the bacon is saved or?

Line up at the Fed and sell dollars ter buy gold and defend your beliefs. Yahoo "Soros rally" in Korea draws skepticism in the US http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980106/soros_rally_in_kore_1.html

G'nite all-----gotta get my 'beauty-sleep'~~~~~~~~~

Ted: If you tilt yer head sideways, that flame won't get yer eyebrows. : )

Happy New Year All!
vronsky, my friend, are you imbibing tonight or are your vapirish tendancies coming out? Is there a full moon? Blood indeed!
And 223 - I thought we did away with the one of "hebephrenic" tendancies last Fall?
Was shocked when I tuned in last night and saw that the posts are as good as ever and multiplied by a factor of two! How the heck do we keep up? What's the name of that speed reading instructor?
Can't say Hello to each individual on my first time back in the New Year - But - HELLO TO ALL!

Greywolf: More likely, the fat's in the fire. .... but welcome aboard anyway. ....... There are probably 200 regulars hereabouts, so you have at least that many opinions to choose from. Some will 2 or 3 on good evening. :0 )

JTF, your analogy is well taken. If I were triaging right now, I would not be too worried about Gold. Thanks for your contributions here.

cherokee__A-....what is the cost of this march130 put? which exchange trades it? ANSWERS!!!--$MXYFO is **American Options Exchange** options on Mexico Index. I bought 3 options @ 4 1/4 ( $425 ea. ) and 10 options @ 5 1/4 ( $525 ea. ) plus commissions. Current bid-ask is 5 5/8 - 6 1/8. Any stockbroker can execute trades on American, Philadelphia, or CBOE options. $MXY has potential to fall to 60-70 area, in which case each $MXYOF will be worth $6K- $7K ( Not tooo shabby ) I personally used USAA Brokerage ( 1-800-531-8343 ) . Mexico is ripe for the same blasting that devastated Korean Won/Korean stocks, Malaysian currency/stocks, Thai currency/stocks, etc. Total collapse could occur by next Monday. Bon chance!

Australia All Ordinaries ^AORD 11:19PM 2644.2 -41.1 -1.53%
China Shanghai Composite ^SSEC 10:30PM 1237.937 +4.317 +0.35%
Hong Kong Hang Seng ^HSI 11:18PM 9642.85 -492.66 -4.86%
India BSE 30 ^BSESN 11:18PM 3737.47 +17.85 +0.48%
Indonesia Jakarta Composite ^JKSE 11:18PM 398.582 -3.683 -0.92%
Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 11:19PM 14880.02 -16.38 -0.11%
Malaysia KLSE Composite ^KLSE 11:18PM 507.78 -17.96 -3.42%
New Zealand NZSE 40 ^NZ40C Dec 31 2314.91 +22.61 +0.99%
Pakistan Karachi 100 ^KSE 4:01AM 1705.66 0.00 0.00%
Philippines PSE Composite ^PSI 11:09PM 1747.34 -73.26 -4.02%
Singapore Straits Times ^SS1 11:16PM 1377.46 -61.66 -4.28%
South Korea Seoul Composite ^KS11 11:18PM 414.69 +8.35 +2.05%
Sri Lanka All Share ^CSE 3:18AM 712.90 -0.40 -0.06%
Taiwan Taiwan Weighted ^TWII 11:04PM 7835.56 -130.62 -1.64%
Thailand SET ^SETI 11:18PM 373.69 +3.42 +0.92

Tuesday January 6, 10:15 pm Eastern Time

HK's Hang Seng dips below 10,000 on regional woes

HONG KONG, Jan 7 ( Reuters ) - Hong Kong shares slipped in early Wednesday trade, battered by regional currencies diving to new record
lows and by climbing local interest rates.

The Hang Seng Index fell 1.55 percent to 9,978 points.

``Today the Singapore dollar hit another record low and Singapore is for sure a direct competitor of Hong Kong,'' said Patrick Chia, research
director at China Everbright Research.

Most Asian currencies sank to new historical lows as confidence in the region took a further beating. The Malaysian ringgit, the Indonesian rupiah
and the Philippine peso all plunged to fresh lows in early trade.

...
``There are some rumours that some Chinese enterprises are taking money back to China,'' one broker said.




Tuesday January 6, 9:11 pm Eastern Time

Indonesian rupiah hits new low on budget, region

JAKARTA, Jan 7 ( Reuters ) - The Indonesian rupiah hit a new low of 8,200 to the dollar in early trade on Wednesday on disappointment over
the national budget and falls in other regional currencies, dealers said.

Spot rupiah bounced back slightly to 7,900/8,050 at 0200 GMT, compared with an opening of 7,500/7,900.

Dealers attributed the early plunge to the market response to the country's budget unveiled on Tuesday and also partly to continued weaknesses
in regional currencies.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980106/indonesian_rupiah_hi_1.html



A.Goose's comments: Once again we have Hong Kong and Nekkei below key levels. The difference this time is the IMF, U.S., ... have spent tons of money "fixing the problem". Now they have fixed it good, and all of Asia is giving them the vote of NO CONFIDENCE.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980106/hk_s_hang_seng_dips__1.html

just testing to see if I'm up and running

Mooney: Welcome back. Little late in the season for extended surveys of moose pasture, ain't it??

Hong Kong -4.66%
Indonesia -1.07%
Malaysia -3.67%
Philippines -4.02%
Singapore -4.51%
Taiwan -1.64%

All:

I have been watching the currency fluctuations in SE Asia tonight and they are truly awesome. The Malaysian paper began the night at around 4.45 to the dollar. In the last hour it rallied to 4.15. Fifteen minutes ago it reversed course and is now trading at 4.72. If you were trading gold in Malaysia you would be having a hard time keeping up. If this action were occuring in dollars gold would be swinging $50 in fifteen minutes.

For the life of me I can not understand why the various countries involved in this mess have not just walked away from their debts. At the current exchange rates they must be able to run a trade surplus. I realize that doing barter deals and COD is a tough way to run a country but it sure beats anarchy and enslavement.

With the dollar again heading higher ( what's new ) and both the Koreans and the Thais launching gold collection and liquidation drives it is rather remarkable that the dollar price of gold is not going down. I thought for sure that this last rally in the dollar combined with yet another rally in bonds and a decline in the CRB would push gold into a panic plunge. The fact that it hasn't may mean that selling exhaustion may be setting in. If the 280 level holds for another a day or two the next rally might really go somewhere. The steady winds of supply and demand are begining to take their toll. As GSC used to say, strength in the face of adverse news is a sign of trend change. While the strength is hardly prodigious the news is about as ugly can be.

The first 5 trading days of January usually determine the direction of the stock market for the rest of the year. Watch out for the next two day -- they are important.

Investors will quickly learn about the terms: DEFLATION, THE GREATEST STOCK MARKET CRASH OF ALL TIME, and TOTAL COLLAPSE.

Gold and silver offer the only safety in the coming monetary collapse.

Earl - Thanks mate! I get the picture...

FT, Wed Jan 7, 1998
US citizens go for broke over nation's latest trend Forget cigar lounges, Beanie Babies and sports utility vehicles. The hottest trend sweeping the US is filing for personal bankruptcy.According to figures published by the Visa payment card association yesterday, the number of Americans declaring themselves bankrupt shot up by 19 per cent to 1.34m last year - more than at any time in the nation's history, including the Great Depression. Full story, Back to top
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/ftbrief.htm

JTF@The.Mind.Always.Working Actually JTF, I'm operating under the
Law of the Last Straw! I think they all WANT the $ to hold,
particularly in this crisis, but will cut us loose to sway in the
wind the moment it serves their purpose to do so.

All: Are there any articles to link to regarding the lower earnings of US banks? I'm watching for hard evidence that Y2K remediation work is starting to hurt the bottom line. I have personally seen Citibank and BofA mentioned in articles as banks having a big exposure to Y2K issues. I'm of the opinion that it won't be Asia that sends the stock market over the edge. It's going to be Y2K. Businesses with Y2K exposure have two choices. Either pay the tremendous cost of Y2K remediation with its attendant effects on the bottom line or go out of business ( that can really hurt the bottom line ) . I'm not a stock market expert but it sure seems to make sense that earnings are important and Y2K is going to hurt them badly for the next 2+ years.

fundaMETAList

Puetz: Do you have any relevent numbers regarding the debt to equity ratio of US business? It seems to me that if and when Asian goods begin to displace US production, some businesses may find themselves in "workout" as well. Any thoughts on it?

Thanks again, Tolerant1, for another very informative site. The problem with the Web is not having enough information, it's filtering out the useless and finding something that adds content to the big picture. your contributions do that, and I appreciate you sharing your experience with us.

The US Stock market is in a serious and troublesome divergence with the Bond market. These lower yields would have created higher prices for DOW components in months past. We see an important change in investor sentiment where bad news is, at last, being read as bad news. Whither the January effect?

Cherokee, your tsunami may well be coming in on cue.

Although more leverage is available with Jan and Feb expiry options, I'm cautious, and so have bought March puts, but it's possible the whole pack of cards could be take a terminal hit by next Monday January 12th. Wouldn't surprise me to see DJIA between 4000 and 5400 by 1/12/98.In this information age, bad news travels fast

Earl: where on the globe do they serve "Old Style"?

Most welcome. The two sites were posted here by someone a long time ago and I bookmarked them. Sift, learn, share.