Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:00 - ID#31868)
Personally I find the myriad maelstroms at Kitco fabulous brain food. Gut wrenching communication. I have on numerous occasions stuck my foot in my mouth ( thank god it jams at the knee ) on Kitco. But so what. I have been corrected and I am thankful for it, and or, my position has become case hardened after reflective thought.

I am thankful to hear such diverse ideas and attitudes. And I do thank Bart for providing the platform. That having been said.

Get Camdesuss!!!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:02 - ID#349272)
Some taxes are necessary. The IRS insn't.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:03 - ID#31868)
New Zealand was in the black the last time I checked.

Cyb Jeddak
(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:05 - ID#287193)
Gold Bottom
Gold Bottom Maybe, Gold Bottoming Process Certainly! There is much talk about conspiracies to force gold lower. This may be. There have been forces at work to drive it lower, though not necessarily conspiratorially. Fellow investors I am of the opinion that the point has been reached where this is irrelevant. The investor should be in gold/silver, gold/silver stock, or cash with the intent to buy gold stocks at these rock bottoming prices. Many gold stocks are classic Graham & Dodd bottoms where the value of the company in cash exceeds the value of the stock. This is the conservative, well reasoned, investment at this time. Tick off the bad investments and you are left with few choices. Even the dollar as a haven will be tested soon as it is forced lower. The other currencies just cannot stand its altitude. It has to come down. US Bonds have all the Japanese held US securities overhanging them. At some point, the Japanese in self preservation may have to sell their US bond holdings. The DOW, Tech stocks, really anything that has been leading the market. Overvalued and doomed by the seeds of their own success. Valuations are about 2/3 too high. They must come down.

With M3 having expanded incredibly and inflating the stock market, as the dow/stocks are sold off, the profits are going to go into resource stocks and consumer goods. New leadership in the stock market shall be represented by this group of gold/silver/diamond, other commodities, oil companies & related. Once again growth companies and resource companies shall lead. Anything that will outpace inflation or sudden deflation will be the investment in which to be.

There are many intellectual and not so intellectual postings. Investors we have simply reached a point at which capital safety is going to be paramount. The confusion is in that investors have not yet recognized this to be the new direction. But they will. Similar to the days of the oil crisis when consumers wanted economy cars no matter what the price, investors are on the brink of needing gold no matter what the price.

Advice: Do not try to catch the exact bottom of gold. Buy in now or hold if you are invested in gold/silver. Three years from now it will not matter on the cost, only how much you have accumulated.

Lurker 777
(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:06 - ID#317247)
You are correct in your assumption that Medical Universities and Research facilities are for profit and do benefit from Tax write off and government subsides. Just think how much more they could do if the government bureaucrats reduced the RED TAPE and did not penalize them through oppressive taxes on new products.

Early Riser
(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:07 - ID#228275)
Anyone think there's a chance of gold purchases by some Western CB's now? This could help pull Asia ( and everyone else ) out of a tailspin, but it would sure be out of character.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:08 - ID#270224)
Don't tell me the Kiwi's paid off their debts?
Yahoo only gives New Zeland data up to Dec 31

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:09 - ID#335190)
Clinton @ Underscored
January 8, 1998
Summers to visit Indonesia to outline U.S. position

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers will visit Indonesia and other Asian countries soon to outline President Clinton's position on the region's economic crisis and seek the views of Asian leaders, a senior administration official said Thursday.

The official, who asked not to be identified, said Clinton had spoken to Indonesian President Suharto for 20 minutes by telephone. "The president underscored the importance of Indonesia within the region and to the United States," he said. "The president made it quite clear that the IMF program needs to be followed."

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:10 - ID#270224)
@Early Riser
It doesn't matter what they do. Remember AZT doesn't control AIDS.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:10 - ID#243250)
fundalMENTAList 23:31
Your post is of interest : why .90 for wave 1 of 3 isn't that a little conservative? ..regards

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:11 - ID#31868)
Details, details.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:16 - ID#57232)
Alien Technology -- signing off -- eyes won't stay open
LSteve: I can't give you hard facts about alien technology, though I suspect that certain nations of the world have something. I think the problem is that this technology is top secret, and the individuals who know about it want to keep it for themselves, rather than disseminate the knowlege around the world, eventually for all humans. The potential power of this advanced technology is corrupting.

The fallacy of this selfish approach is that many of the best minds in this world do not necessarily work for the government, or for that matter may not even have college degrees. Also the best advances in science tend to be when scientists are free to communicate among themsleves without restrictions.

You will see the "alien" technology become evident in the next 50 years or so when nonrenewable energy supplies dwindle. Key words to search for what is known include the Bohm - Ahromov experiment, the Casimir effect, and zero-point energy. These topics have been an interest of mine for some time, and I am slowly separating the wheat from the chaff on the internet. You may want to look of the Wankel "over unity" electric motor that the Japanese have patented, as well as the Takahashi electric motor. Both of these motors appear to tap the "zero-point" or "free" energy that pervades the world around us, I suspect much like the virtual electron sea of Paul Dirac. Anither clue to the "zero-point" energy is that no one has adequately explaind why nuclear decay occurs when it does. It should not be random, given what we know about quantum machanics.

These "over unity" motors very well may go into mass production in Japan if oil prices skyrocket. India has a similar program, but I have forgotten the name of the center where such research is done. This kind of research has been suppressed in the US, for a variety of reasons.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:17 - ID#335190)
$1.3 Trillion Municipal bond Market @ Yield Burning & $1 Billion overcharges
January 8, 1998
U.S. charges firm with fraud for "yield burning"

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - U.S. regulators charged a major securities firm Thursday with fraudulently inflating the price of special securities that it sold to the state of Arizona in 1993 -- in the first such case of its kind.

The practice has been dubbed "yield burning" by participants in the $1.3 trillion municipal bond market, which has been in a high-pitched battle for months with the Internal Revenue Service and SEC over the issue.

In July 1996, IRS said states and localities could avoid having their bonds declared taxable by settling what some view as $1 billion in total yield burning overcharges by securities firms nationwide.

But cities, counties and states said they were innocent victims of yield burning. They implored the SEC to file lawsuits -- like the one filed Thursday -- aimed at recovering illegal profits directly from the firms.

"What's going on now is a game of chicken," said one securities lawyer who asked not to be identified. " ( The question is ) who's going to blink first?"

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:18 - ID#31868)
Cyb Jeddak
I found your post in line with my thinking. ( no insult meant ) Your last paragraph is solid advice IMHO. Very solid.

John Disney__A
(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:23 - ID#24140)
The templars raise their ugly head - remember Phillip le bel
For Jeil - Is it possible to agree with someone by

more than 100 per cent.

For Haggis - Now get this straight - a Karlita is NOT

a weed whacker - its a weenie wacker.

For MJPL - Re the Templier - Where is Bernatz de

Ventadorm when we need him - Has he cut a deal with

the templers ?? Is that machine of his working?? -

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:27 - ID#347457)
IRS will hunt you even in your grave
Well, while we are at that tax thing. Today at noon I was listening to a radio show about "how to deal with IRS". Tax consultant was talking about his recent experience. He used to do taxes for an older gentleman who died a couple of years ago. IRS sent an audit notice to old fella and family turned to this consultant asking what they should do about it. Tax consultant agreed to call IRS and take care of the notice. He called, told IRS officer that poor old man died a couple of years ago and won't be making it to any audit. IRS officer replied "it's not acceptable".

Well, I guess IRS could go and try to talk to the man in his grave.

You see, even death won't keep IRS away - how could you complain about such dedication of public servant? :- )

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:30 - ID#252127)
Kiwi, Aurator or other downunder experts

A number of us have wondered why the NZSE40 has not reported since Dec 31, 1997.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:30 - ID#398105)
John Disney..............terminology! Still means the same thing!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:33 - ID#398105)
tolerant1 - post 00:00..........very tolerant of you.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:34 - ID#373403)
The eye of the storm we are in
( Yesterday )
The Asian contries are insolvent. They need western money to repay the west. We give it to them to keep the game afoot but we want guarantees that this new money will be paid back. We demand austerity so that we are kept whole. They say yes, we will do anything just don't cast us back into the third world pool, we want to be like the west.

( Today )
We want to renegotiate, these austerity measures hurt too much and we are as bad off as if we just default. Just give us the money. Well if we just give you the money then we are as bad off as if you default because the new loans will not be repaid and it will just tie up our money longer.

( Tomorrow )
What if we just do not pay you for awhile until we get things in order, o.k.? Buy some more of our stuff so we can repay you. Don't try keeping all our goods without paying us or we will not make you anymore.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:35 - ID#31868)
Yeah, I know. Just don't tell anyone, I'd hate for something like that to get around.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:40 - ID#287277)
"Communication across the revolutionary divide is inevitably partial." T.S. Kuhn
Friday January 9 1998
South China Business Post

Indonesian hopes fade

AGENCIES in Jakarta:Idonesian markets slid deeper into the abyss
yesterday, as the last remnants of hope in the government's ability to control the crisis evaporated. As the currency and stocks crashed, concern intensified that a debt moratorium might be imposed in an attempt to halt the economic disintegration.

The rupiah plunged more than 18 per cent at one point, before closing at 9,700 to the US dollar, amid heightened political tensions over a growing
campaign against President Suharto's re-election in March.
Bill Keeling, head of research at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson Securities in Jakarta, said: "You've got people saying - no one dare mention
the term - 'debt moratorium' as if that were an evil thing, but the fact is, it is essentially the situation we are in anyway, when creditors have no choice but to wait."

The Indonesian rupiah's dramatic decline against the dollar in the past year has made foreign-debt repayment so costly that many companies are
simply refusing to honour their debts to Japanese, European and US banks, analysts said.

There were unconfirmed reports yesterday of foreign banks suspending treasury operations with Indonesia, halting trade financing and credit lines as the market reverberated to talk of possible imminent exchange controls.

Danial Lian, head of Asian markets research at ANZ Investment Bank, said: "I'm expecting them to soon close the capital account and suspend

Creditors are scrambling to renegotiate terms, refinance debt or even convert debt to equity in hopes of recovering money at a later date.
Indonesia's foreign debt is about US$130 billion.

Banks can do little but work out better repayment terms, because complex bankruptcy laws and their lax enforcement in Indonesia make it difficult for creditors to seize assets.

Pacific investment director at Henderson Investors, Michael Watt, said: "The rupiah looks almost untradeable at the moment."

Jimmy Koh, regional economist at Independent Economic Analysis, said: "If they don't call a debt moratorium, you are going to see the rupiah at
15,000 tomorrow and 20,000 the next day.

"You are going to see it fall more and more every day, because people are just not willing to hold rupiah."

Analysts said there was a pressing need for the government to announce plans on implementing reforms agreed with the International Monetary
Fund in October in return for a multi-billion dollar bailout.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:43 - ID#267298)
I'm a Canadian. Revenue Canada just as frustrating as IRS.

I recently called Revenue Canada three times asking the
same question. Each of the three calls I spoke with a
different individual. I received three different answers to the
same queston. No doubt in my mind if I call three more times
I will receive three more DIFFERENT answers.

Go figure......

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:44 - ID#25588)
FundaMETAList - If wave 3 is slightly less then 1.618 of wave 1 the mostly likely target for wave 5 is .618 of the distance from 0 to the top of wave 3. If wave four bottoms at 5.60 the objective becomes 6.90.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:52 - ID#284246)
@early riser
Good point. Maybe if the Japs just expressed an interest in buying gold in favour of holding US paper, or perhaps if they announced a future gold purchase program we might see some interesting events unfold?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 00:58 - ID#31868)
My heart goes out to those people in Asia. My God what a mess. Things have truly gotten out of hand. There is no way out of this. IMHO There will be no soft landing I fear. I wish, such was not the reality. During the course of this year and beyond people and countries will be tested as never before.

I have tried in my limited way to get people to put something, anything into the metals. They think they own things and I try to point out that they are merely the caretakers, someone else actually owns these "things" they think are theirs.

One of the items which troubles me deeply is that people in the USA are simply not prepared in large part for what is coming. I am not a doom and gloom type. Reality is what it is. Eventually things will sort themselves out. It seems such a shame to think of all the people whose life savings are about to be wiped out.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:02 - ID#287277)
Friday January 9 1998
South China Business Post
Precious Metals
Bullion stuck in narrow range

Gold took in London trade yesterday a breather from sharp declines seen earlier in the week and prices hung in the centre of a narrow range above
the key US$280 an ounce level.

"It's relatively quiet. Gold is stuck in a $281-$285 range, while silver and the [platinum group metals] are more buoyant," a bullion analyst said. Bullion fixed at $282.90 an ounce in the morning, up from Wednesday afternoon's fresh 18.5-year low fixing of $281.60.

Dealers credited gold's firmer tone to speculators covering short positions after gold stubbornly resisted cracking the psychologically important $280 support earlier in the week.

Weakness in the dollar during Asian trading hours and good physical offtake at the lows also helped boost prices.

Hong Kong spot gold ended higher in quiet trade, helped by short covering, dealers said. Bullion closed at US$283.70-$284.20 an ounce
and tael gold finished HK$20 higher at $2,626.

Silver was slightly higher at US$6.07-$6.10 an ounce from $6.03-$6.05 at Wednesday's close. Platinum gained $4 to $363-$365 an ounce and
palladium was up $1.50 at $204.50-$207.50.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:08 - ID#335190)
January 8, 1998
Formerly rich flock to grab bargains, sell off luxuries

BANGKOK, Thailand ( AP )  Sniffing a bargain, the middle-aged woman in a fashionable silk dress squeezes through the crowd to take a closer look at the second-hand ring.

Thailand's boom times are being sold off to pay the bills come due. Thailand's bubble economy, built on real estate and stock market speculation, made a few people very rich, and a lot of people a little rich.

The media's latest heroes are white-collar workers who have successfully coped with job cuts and corporate restructuring brought on by the region's economic problems. The real estate broker turned sandwich maker. The finance executive turned taxi driver. The journalist turned milkman.

Buying used goods, the English-language Bangkok Post recently proclaimed, used to be something shameful for the well-heeled. Now, the newspaper says, the practice is acceptable, "even chic."

The Hatt
(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:14 - ID#294232)
Tolerant1 You are so right and your compassion for Asia just tells me you....
really understand just how serious these problems are and the fact that the U.S. is right in the middle of it all. Todays action on the Dow was just further proof that stock is moving from strong hands to weak hands and with four strong trading days the market has moved down further than many would have thought. What frustrates me is the Mutual Fund players are unaware of the danger and as every day passes more and more average people are being sold worthless paper! The rich are taking the poor for a ride for the second time in 69 years and this time their mode of transportation is the mutual fund industry! Get out while you can and if nothing else stop feeding the monster!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:17 - ID#335190)
Fear @ Debt Moratorium
January 9, 1998
FOCUS-Asian currency traders frozen with fear

SINGAPORE, Jan 9 ( Reuters ) - Asian currency trading was practically petrified on Friday as activity shrank amid mounting panic about the potential outcome of Indonesia's financial debacle.

Dealers said liquidity had dwindled in Southeast Asian currencies as spreads widened amid fears that Indonesia was on the verge of declaring a debt moratorium or introducing trading curbs on the rupiah.

The Indonesian currency has lost nearly half its value against the U.S. dollar in the last six trading days. "There's not much trading going on. Everything is customer- or commercially-driven at the moment," said a U.S. bank dealer in Singapore said.

"In the rupiah, the interbank market doesn't exist anymore. Yesterday, the spread was about 100 rupiah. Today, it's 500-1,000, so it's practically impossible to trade," he said.

There was also talk of intervention by the U.S. Federal Reserve to support the rupiah overnight and the immediate release of the second $3.0 billion tranche of IMF loans to Indonesia. But neither could be confirmed.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:18 - ID#365190)
economist article on "pangloss theory"

interesting but might be old news to the die hards here at kitco

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:25 - ID#31868)
The Hatt
For family that just does not get it I have set aside portions, but I can only do so much. Well, that is one of the lessons of life. You can only do so much.

You can always try, for me I find it to be a must do thing. But no matter how hard you try, you just can't be too hard on yourself if someone else just won't listen.

I am sure there are many on this site who feel the same way.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:26 - ID#287277)
Amazing thing, politics...

Just a telephone call from Bill, the Reality of two top IMF facilitators on the plane and on their way, and Lawrence Summers to follow as quickly as ever he can have been enough to save the Indonesian market. Margolis will tell you all about it tomorrow no doubt.


Jakarta Composite. ^JKSE, 10:43PM, 352.388. +5.280,+1.52%


(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:27 - ID#153111)
John Disney
Sorry to be the one to have to inform you but Mr. Ventadorm would not come to terms with the Templars. I have not heard any thing of him since he got into the back of the limo to go to church with one of the good brothers.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:28 - ID#252127)

Even Singapore heretofore a stable SEA economy and respected for its strong currency has its Straights Times Index down over 7%.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:31 - ID#345268)
@ Haggis
Thanks for the statistics last night. Took me time to digest them and I keep them for future reference. Some however are debatable. Thanks again.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:32 - ID#253228)
cavender, re government vs freedom
You seem to think that all good flows from government grants. Years ago one of the many books I read ( The Discovery of Freedom ) was by Rose Wilder Lane, the real life grandchild of Little House on the Prarie fame. She certainly deserves as high recognition as Ayn Rand, although it has not been forthcoming. Her home when she died is about thirty miles down the road from me, and whenever I drive to the big city for a shopping expedition and pass by that location I think of her and feel a nice feeling.

She reviewed a great length of history and came to the conclusion that times of freedom were times of economic advance, technological discovery, and general human advance. Times absent freedom were characterised by economic and technological stagnation and increased human suffering.
The difference between your view of the world and mine appears to be that I see government as the destroyer of freedom, notwithstanding it claims to be the protector of freedom. Of course after decades of mass education in government owned, government controlled schools, it is no wonder a large number of people believe the freedom mass delusion.

It may seem to you that much good comes from the money government spends, but you are not looking at the cost. They simply are taking money away from people who certainly know how to use it effectively for their own purposes, and after keeping a lions share for overhead are tossing it in directions that no one rational would have chosen. They publicise the benefits, never the cost. People forget that most of what government provides could be got via the free market at half the cost. The resourses consumed ( wasted ) by government and the lost production at their obstruction are tremendous. The efficiency of complete government control is evident in countries like Cuba and the former USSR. The efficiency of very little government is shown in the tremendous advances in the early days of the USA. We have been steadily moving from freedom to government control of our economic and political lives, i.e., from freedom to slavery.

Actually, to those that suggest I quit complaining and leave of course misunderstand the difference between this land and this government. Maybe it is the Socialists/Fascists who should move to a country more consistent with thier views and let those remaining restore freedom to show the world what unbridled human effort can accomplish. ( And of course with gold as money how could we fail! )

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:32 - ID#31868)
ya know
Here I am thinking of ways to preserve what my family and me have and these idiots are printing money, which is my debt, and throwing it down a black hole.

This is not right.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:33 - ID#398105)
International Market Indices.........up to date......A CUE AND A HINT !!!

URL for International Market Indices, short and long term graphs, and financial forum:

To be book marked...........

ps.........................FOR KARLITO99......................

"You desire sources for your essay on the evaluation of the long-term
effects of this ( US/Asian Tiger ) crash on the US financial markets.

A good source is the Gold Eagle web page. They have much information on
market "bubbles" and the consequences when they "pop". The U.S. is the
next bubble to pop. We've been given a cue to what will happen in the
future when Prime Minister Hashimoto hinted in late June of this year
Japan would sell off a major portion of their Treasury portfolio. The US
stock market took the second largest one day plunge in history. And that
was just a hint".

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:37 - ID#345268)
@ tolerant1
If your family doesn't get it, try to provide harder evidence, like Reuter's reports handed to them with highlights. All you can do is try.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:38 - ID#341214)
wert: next silver leg up
wert: Here is what I based my 6.50 on for the next leg up in silver. Wave 3 started in late Oct 97 and went from about 4.70 to 5.60, a move of .90. I think we are still in that wave 3 with 4 of 3 either done or close to it. Next comes 5 of 3 with a new top. Since wave 5 can be about the same size as wave 1 I added .90 to APH's expected finish of wave 4 of 3 ( APH's 5.59, I came up with a bottom of 5.66, a few cents higher ) . Once we get the new top at 6.50 or higher, we go into corrective wave 4 and finally into wave 5 with an even higher top. Is APH saying that wave 3 that started in late Oct is finished? Maybe that is where we differ. I think that wave is still ongoing but like I said, I'm a student of this subject. I have enjoyed a few sucesses lately but I'm not to the point where I am definetely dangerous to the person taking the other side of my trades.

Thanks in advance for any light you can shed on this.



(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:39 - ID#31868)
At this point...I am thinking of having their fore heads tatooed so every time they look in the mirror they can't help but read BUY GOLD!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:40 - ID#252150)
Law & order...definitely
I read some fairly negative postings on the U.S. govt re: overtaxing & the heavy hand of bureaucracies etc. Despite some shortcomings I feel that we have to give the U.S. credit where credit is due: they don't fool around when it comes to law & order. The Globe & Mail ( Toronto ) reported today that a security guard in Miami shot dead a motorist for double parking in front of a bank.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:40 - ID#398105)
Jack -

Singapore URL

NOT looking good.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:41 - ID#345268)
@ all
Why did gold stocks take a dive today?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:41 - ID#270224)
Tolerant1 Try a different tack with those you care for
Start them off simply:

1. Don't buy things you don't need.

2. Use things up until they really wear out.

3. Save as much cash as you can.

4. Be as frugal as you possibly can.

5. Don't gamble unless you have to.

6. Buy a freezer and keep it full of food from your garden.

7. Start bartering assets, time and talent.

8. Don't borrow any more money.

9. Switch from stock equity funds to global bonds, money market and precious metals stocks or convertible debentures.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:42 - ID#252127)
Anyone remember the frequent poster....Chicken Little?

Do yer think dat the Hong Kong chicken killers got him........Naah

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:44 - ID#398105)
DOW JONES trend................... any growth left, or has it hit a ceiling?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:45 - ID#31868)
Consider it done. Multiple copies are printing and will be handed out or mailed tomorrow. Watch, I hand them a piece of paper after all the other things I have tried. Signed from KO and they say "Oh, now I get it."

Stranger things have happened.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:45 - ID#270224)
Tolerant1 Myrmidon has a good answer
Print some of the Kitco derived screens.

The last one on the Singapore stock exchange is a good one along with at least half a dozen other ones.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:48 - ID#41229)
Calling....................................................................Bart Kitner
Thanks for the reply, I reread my post and discovered I left out a word, when I asked the question of LGB 1&2, Karlito it ment to post I do Not expect an answer. I need to reread my posts before posting a little better.

I also realized that the misguided ones, of course this is my opinion, they do not stir the pot but churn a churn. Because the fruits of their labor, the above mentioned, is the cream that surfaces here to refute their shallow arguements. ( Even the misguided 3, in my opinion, have to like this post; its kind of touchy feely. )

I have posted before that the U.S. numbers are based on volumes, once the volumes slow, ie economy, the gdp goes down, ie incoming revenues. We can't even meet expences when were in 15 year boom, what happens when their is a few bad.

Why gee isn't this the same recipe that is currently happening in asia? That is baring the flight to quality were seeing in the dollar and bonds. But never worring once corp. profits start to wane, U.S. own citizens or should I say brokers will crush that confidence in a heart beat.

Haggis good posts tonight, you must have alot of time on your hands or have been studying the events that are unfolding for the past few years. This weekend I will be going over the stocks you have suggested and add to the others currently holding. Anybody with the diligence and research that went into the post has my respect!

Were many tonight, but I feel that no matter how facts, research or stats are presented, their veiws will not be changed. It has been said many times that after a period of time the liers believe their own lies.

Oh! I forgot one of the misguided, in my opinion, Karlito 2, Sorry I wouldn't want someones work to go unnoticed; how communist of me?

Something that everyone should keep in mind, as stated in the Bible, men will be running to the hill and caves. I would suggest to you that if we have anything close to an 30's depression, you will see ernormous bleed shed as the have not's without monthly dose of social programs will be taken from the have's. The hills and cave will be far safer. Now some may say thats too apocaliptic we have progress beyond that; but was not the seens of the L.A. riots alittle unnerving.

The politicians have played the race card and class war fare to the point where it is not we it is us. The rational voices will not be heard over the gunfire. It seems that it doesn't take much to get a city to burn. Convict a muderer of wrong color, win basketball championships!

Hopefully we will not reach the breaking point.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:49 - ID#255151)

I know what you mean. Over the Holidays, I suggested to my sister-in-law that she purchase a small amount of Gold. She made a sour face and said that was way too speculative. I could tell there was no point in further discussion. Hell, I even showed her my Maple Leaf! People have to be ready to listen. Unfortunately, it is usually late in the game when they do.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:49 - ID#341214)
APH: Just caught your post after I put mine out there. Thanks for the reply. I'll study it and see what I come up with.


(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:51 - ID#398105)
tolerant1........we will keep "it" a secret!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:51 - ID#255151)

BTW, does Camdessus ski?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:52 - ID#31868)
Yes, he has an opened ended lift ticket, payable by the taxpayers of the world.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 01:57 - ID#31868)
One and all
Good advice, I thank you. Enjoy the evening or day wherever you may be. Sleep calls.

Get Camdesuss!!!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 02:02 - ID#341214)
James: fess up
James: Wasn't the Miami story about a bank robbery?


(Fri Jan 09 1998 02:07 - ID#256254)
Think someone asked about NZ since yahoo is stuck on Dec 31

(Fri Jan 09 1998 02:07 - ID#345268)
@ all
In an earlier post I asked a dumb question, but I will ask it again:

Why did the gold index crash today?

If noone answers.... I get it...

(Fri Jan 09 1998 02:09 - ID#403195)
Tar pit.

It's been a great night on Kitco, Bart, thanks.

Grant, who are we? We are everybody; the informed, the uninformed, the ill informed and the just plain ill.

By reading this board, you have touched your toe to the margin of a tar pit; withdraw now or you will become one of us!


Ave, Aurator, hic retiarivs te salutat.


(Fri Jan 09 1998 02:12 - ID#270224)
Let me guess ( I am not trying to be a smart ass! ) :

Someone figured out that a lot of gold mines will lose their shirts trying to make a profit on $280 U.S. gold.

all the "crapshoot" juniors that may or may not have something in the ground.

That is the problem with most gold mutual funds, they mix the "crapshoots" with the low risk companies.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 02:21 - ID#257148)
Hurry, Hurry, Rush, Rush, Market Report....stop the presses///

G'day, er, what, the NZSE hasn't reported since the 31 Dec last year? Who dey supposed to report to?

I've just got back from another BarbQ, guess we're all too darned busy at BarbQs at the moment to bother reporting anything but sunburn ( holes in the Ozone are real holes in space ) and increased collesterol levels. Ever heard the kiwi expression "She'll be right, mate." ?

Fri 9 Jan 1998 NZSE close 2269.28 -38.63.

But I suspect the real reason for our non-reporting is the RATIONAL UBERANCE of the esteemed Pres. of the NZSE, Mr Eion Edgar, reported in our old granny Herald Newspaper this very morning ( 8/1/98 ) :

The New Zealand Stock Exchange will enjoy a record turnover this year and investors in New Zealand Shares can look forward to handsome return, exchange chairman Eion Edgar forecasts, with the NZSE finishing 1988 between 5 and 10% higher.

How's that for a crystal ball!! I love that accuracy mate. Who needs to report the NZSE during 1988 now, you know the score, 5-10% higher.

I could do with clarity of foresight like that Eion.

Eion recommended to buy paper? hmm well, of course he knows me, and I did some more shopping at JM, and handed a 10oz ingot to a tow-haired 6 year old son of a friend. My precious gleamed in his eyes and reflected golden in his hair.

Gold speaks louder than any orator

(Fri Jan 09 1998 02:22 - ID#398105)
Gold and Derivatives......

"Long has man travelled in the realms of gold".

"And the gold of that land is good" - no, it is not a Soros quote, but from Genesis 2:12

Derivatives, in the time scale of gold, they are new aren't they?

Given what is happening in Asia, would it be "fair" to suggest that the common denominator of derivatives is substantial financial defaults often associated with large monetary losses. Default could happen in all markets, so why not the gold market? Are we "seeing" hidden default in the gold market?

So what is the case for regulatory legislation of the derivatives market, a change for the better will be seen. In reality, who understands the risks associated with derivatives and their impact on the REAL WORLD. Are they a very expensive social experiment.

Who in their right mind invented a SWAP - gold for derivatives, or derivatives for gold.

The "other" classic terms - a SYNTHETIC GOLD LOAN and NAKED OPTIONS.

STRUTH, what in the world is "synthetic gold", never mind a "synthetic gold loan"?!

"Naked Options", that must be the reason why they are collapsing the Asian economies, as holidays in Thailand and the Philippines will certainly be cheaper!!!!!!!!!!!

It makes you wonder.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 02:25 - ID#345268)
@ KO
The XAU consists of larger caps, and such drop may warrant some thinking.

An earlier post said that the 200 day moving average of gold went below $325. Other writings have mentioned that with Au at $325 50% of the mines are unprofitable. Now, since most of us read the same articles and newsletters, I wonder if this was the main reason for the selloff. Just a thought.

May be the moving average affected investor psychology.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 02:26 - ID#257148)
Pro bono Publico...

Retiarivs: most kind of you old bean, here hold the fasces for a while


(Fri Jan 09 1998 02:31 - ID#34883)
The Beatles were the end of the philosophe Natuaralism...and what an end it was...

GOoooooooooOOOO Gold Bugs!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 02:33 - ID#345268)
@ Haggis
Good theory, but please allow me to take exception to it.

For a start, the gold market was not overpriced as the world stock markets were / are today. It would make sense for gold to go up if this was due to gold derivative trading. Am I missing something?

Thanks again for the stats, I enjoy and save your posts.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 02:41 - ID#257148)
Lend me your ears....

James @ 1:40 you have a fine turn of phrase.


SO MANY GREAT POSTS the last 24 hours or so, too many to name for fear of ommission.

This is some cybercommunity we are growing, at kitco. And, of course, what makes kitco is the contributors. To those who are lurking, the longer I am here, the greater the wisdom I find in this old Hindu Proverb

They who give have all things. They who withhold have nothing.


(Fri Jan 09 1998 02:46 - ID#20748)
Panic in Indonesia

(Fri Jan 09 1998 02:48 - ID#20748)
Panic in Indonesia
Try it again.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 02:49 - ID#398105)


Please correct me if I am wrong.

WE are told that gold demand outstrips supply. There may be a 2000 to 8000 tonne physical gold vacuum via the derivatives market, and we are not sure as to the status of payement for this gold or delivery of this gold. Furthermore we don't know who owes what - although I would suggest that the outstanding debts will be held by the "chosen few".

We know that the gold price is being artificially held down below US300, We also know that it would make "sense" ( oh what a word...... ) to have gold at US350 there abouts to achieve balance in International trade?!

So, why don't we have that balance? Is there a "play" to achieve control of the Asian economies, AND ALSO their in-and-above ground reserves of gold?? If this was acheived by the "chosen few" would it in any shape or form solve the gold vacuum??? the flaw in this scenario is that TIME will beat the "chosen few"

What do you think?

I will be back later...........................

(Fri Jan 09 1998 02:49 - ID#345268)
Kitco promo
With such vast knowledge of the heavy duty contributors, a radio talk show will be an excellent promo for Kitco and will help change public perception.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 02:55 - ID#257148)
This post is NOT for tgl, it is for

I see Bart's post on CB holdings came from your newsletter. Pity you didn't post it here first, or don't you lurk no more?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 02:56 - ID#257148)
This post is NOT for tgl, it is for

I see Bart's post on CB holdings came from your newsletter. Pity you didn't post it here first, or don't you lurk no more?


Am I finished asking rhetorical questions?


(Fri Jan 09 1998 02:57 - ID#270224)
@Tolerant 1 Low Risk Gold Investments for the Family Doubters
BGR Precious Metals Closed End Mutual fund BPT.WT.A on Toronto or Montreal

trades over 20% below its asset value, completely debt free, assets worldwide and 100% retirement plan eligible.

Kinross Convertible Debentures

Prime Resources or Franco Nevada

(Fri Jan 09 1998 03:00 - ID#270224)
Correction BPT.A not the BPT.WT.A warrants
... Sorry.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 03:03 - ID#413109)
Buying Opportunity ****
IMHO, it's time to really do some serious buying of gold and other PMs.
You ask why now, what does this guy know the rest of us don't-
Answer- nothing....but look at the charts, wouldn't you buy a stock
that has gone down substantially, with Elliot patterns showing final
swings, with volume increasing as a basing pattern is being established,
and BEST OF ALL, such a small risk factor. Buy at these levels using the lows, and maybe slightly below the lows, as a stop-sell point, what more could anyone ask.

Add to this the long term trends of some 25 years or more are in tact.
Add some fundamentals like low inflation, which is generally followed by the opposite. Markets looking toppy, so PMs may be a safe haven investment for many. etc, etc.

All the best!!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 03:06 - ID#398105)
ANDDDDDDDD they are off! Leading from the front is INDONESIA

This is not a "pretty" sight......

Good for gold exploration and mining in Indonesia - maybe BreX is there afterall!?

"Mineral Deposits of Indonesia - Discoveries of the past 25 years:
Journal of Geochemical Exploration
Volume 50, Nos 1-3
March 1994.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 03:08 - ID#270224)
Please try reloading your message. I can't read it.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 03:16 - ID#270224)
Goodnight all, try to keep a smile once in awhile inspite ...
... of the dreary forecasts. Good luck to all of you and yours!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 03:18 - ID#398105)
Oh my..............

I must be missing something here ..........

"Debt is good - especially if you don't have to pay it back".

Gold plumbs the depths of 1979

THE price of gold fell again yesterday to a level not seen since 1979.

It was fixed by the London market at $281.60 an ounce in the afternoon -

a further 20 cents below Tuesday's fix.

Mining companies, central banks and investors were all said to be

selling - but some were selling gold that they do not have in the hope

that they can purchase bullion even more cheaply in future to meet their

obligations. One London dealer said: "It's managed to hold, but if it

goes, there's not much stopping a fall to $260."

The price would have to fall below $200 an ounce to retreat to pre-1979

levels however. The metal is still suffering from the weekend speech on

deflation from Alan Greenspan, chairm

(Fri Jan 09 1998 03:20 - ID#398105)
Oh my..............

I must be missing something here ..........
"Debt is good - especially if you don't have to pay it back".

Gold plumbs the depths of 1979

THE price of gold fell again yesterday to a level not seen since 1979.
It was fixed by the London market at $281.60 an ounce in the afternoon -
a further 20 cents below Tuesday's fix.

Mining companies, central banks and investors were all said to be
selling - but some were selling gold that they do not have in the hope
that they can purchase bullion even more cheaply in future to meet their
obligations. One London dealer said: "It's managed to hold, but if it
goes, there's not much stopping a fall to $260."

The price would have to fall below $200 an ounce to retreat to pre-1979
levels however. The metal is still suffering from the weekend speech on
deflation from Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, but
it is also hit by the Far East crises.

The South Korean government's plea for citizens to hand over their gold
to boost the country's reserves brought in seven tonnes yesterday, worth

(Fri Jan 09 1998 03:22 - ID#257148)
salty memories were never like this.........
Eion HI!

'member me, I was the cabin boy on the bridge of the Titanic in 1987?

'course at that time you were just a Petty Officer. I was on the bridge more often than you, and,if truth be known, the cabin boys know more about the ship than anyone else.

Wasn't it Sun Tzu who said the easiest way into a Castle is through the Kitchen? On a ship, it's through the cabin boy. {Don't you go getting excited now , I did not mean THAT}

Now you're the Captain, eh Eion!. Well the other Captains weren't up to much either were they?. The NZ Broking Industry is still as dodgy and venal as it was back in 87 when the NZSE was touching 4000. My american brethren probably do not recall that the NZSE today is still hovering at about 50% of 1987 values.

My pick, FWIW, not 5-10% increase, rather a 15-80% decrease in the Index through 1998. Tell you what Eion, old bean, If I'm right, how about giving me the Captain's scrambled egg? First thing I'd do is disband the NZSE, like I wanted to do in 87. The brokers have had it too easy fleecing kiwis.

Goodbye Mr Chips.

Nick@C Dem rotties got your tongue?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 03:24 - ID#345268)
@ Haggis
My personal views on the price of gold are:

It is to the benefit of the CBs for the price to go up, since they hold 1/4 of the world's gold. To accomplish that, it is necessary to decrease production, eliminate the juniors, and eventually get the public in.

Phase 1 is to drive the price down. This was accomplished with short sales, bad publicity etc.

Phase 2 will be the forced closing of a lot of mines.

Phase 3 will be ( 2-5 years ahead ) the natural price increase of gold even though they don't publicly admit gold's importance in banking reserves.

I can not see how CBs can directly control most of the world production. If this was the case, and CBs accomplished it by buying mines with pennies to the dollar, surely someday the plot will be uncovered, and then what? Imagine the headlines "CBs are mining gold!". Hard to believe it.

One can speculate till the day comes, but if I was a CB, I would like to see my gold assets up, even though my paper assets far exceed my gold assets.

I think they will do it. Prices will stay there for up to 1 year max. with some minor runups to say $340, but after that when production is reduced, they can enjoy the ride.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 03:43 - ID#419147)
whats going on on palladium market?

Monkee Person
(Fri Jan 09 1998 03:46 - ID#288105)
Singapore: 01/09 Luxembourg banker falls to death from 18th story at the Shangri-La. Investigators detect no foul play.

Hong Kong: Suicide rate jumps 30%

Korea : Over 400 recent deaths ruled suicide...related to ongoing financial crisis.

Thailand : A university survey's in five Thai's contemplating suicide.

Thai citizens, religious leaders seen handing over U.S. dollars, gold to assist in easing financial crisis.

Similar scenes in Korea.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 03:55 - ID#345268)
@ Monkee person
... And coming soon in the US. In view of the changing times, I should sell some gold stocks and buy Funeral stocks.

Monkee Person
(Fri Jan 09 1998 04:03 - ID#288105)
There are more moneys and assets involved than are being, or can be, reported.

Effect to equal one-half of 1% of U.S. GDP?

I don't think so.

Monkee Person
(Fri Jan 09 1998 04:05 - ID#288105)
Effect equals one-half of 1% of expected U.S. GDP growth?

John Disney__A
(Fri Jan 09 1998 04:16 - ID#24140)
Bernatz Lives
for mjpl -

You've got me worried about Bernatz. I cant believe

the Templers would whack him. I thought he said he had

connections with them - I think he said he knew Guy de

Mollet - that is before Guy had his run in with

"Pretty Boy" Phil from Paris.

This can't be true.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 04:19 - ID#328159)
The Meeting
A little story, dreamt up overnight, to be treated as fiction, and any resemblance to persons living or dead is, of course, purely coincidental!

The scene: A well-appointed meeting room, attended by about a
dozen men in business suits. The Chairman is reviewing recent events.

"As you are no doubt aware, our operation to discredit gold as currency and prevent financial meltdown has so far been an unqualified success. "

"We have successfully persuaded our gullible friends to part with over 300 tonnes this year, and without too much effort, the effects of publicity accruing from that, plus reports of historical sales, have exceeded all our targets. I must say that if we could persuade people that the Gnomes of Zurich are going to abandon gold, even if they know that the Swiss will vote against it, we are doing pretty well. Meanwhile, we have not sold any of our own stocks and in fact a comfortable level of accumulation of physical metal and mining stock equities has been achieved."

"Our efforts to take the shine off of gold by associating it with the Nazis through knowledge of certain shipments to Switzerland and other countries have also contributed. You will also no doubt have seen Keynes' famous phrase 'barbarous relic' put to frequent good use recently."

"Some assistance in our operations has come from several well-reported mining discoveries last year, even extending to the UK."

"The perceived threat of tonnes of scrap gold coming on to the market from round-ups in Korea and Thailand has helped a little very recently."

"The computer-driven futures and stock trading programmes run by the PPT have been very successful, with the Dow index being kept to daily losses just within three digits on several occasions, and dramatic recoveries being achieved on others."

"However, events in Asia are gathering momentum and the effects on company earnings are beginning to be perceived as serious. The efforts of the PPT may not be sufficient for much longer, and it will soon be necessary to move to the next phase."

"Our operation to fix the blame on the usual suspects is going according to plan. Appropriate leaks have been seeded regarding the secret gold/oil agreement, and we expect that the concept of the usual suspects sending the cost of gold and oil up by forcing certain changes in the gold/oil agreement on those governments, ending in the devaluation of the dollar and collapse of the stock markets, will place blame securely where
we think it belongs. "

"Our internet disinformation team told me this morning that they will make a key announcement on the 10th, timed appropriately at the start of Ramadan, and other operations will follow from there on. As the word spreads out from the exclusive to the public, the perception of
outside interests causing the collapse, rather than our own error, will become the 'accepted fact'. Furthermore, the IDT has created an identity which, when certain clues are followed up, will point to the rivals of those in power whose friendship we value in the Mid-East."

"Before we move on to the order of the day, are there any questions? Yes, ________?"

"Mr. Chairman, just one small point, you referred earlier to the statement to be made at the start of Ramadan. Are you not aware that Ramadan started at the end of December? It is tied to the phases of the moon, not a specific date. The date you mentioned was for last year's Ramadan."

(Fri Jan 09 1998 04:35 - ID#261151)
News on Bernatz

John Disney, I'm afraid it don't look good for Mr. Ventadorm. This is a long piece, so type in AQUARIUS on your "find word" key. gopher:// Arf, Buddy

(Fri Jan 09 1998 04:50 - ID#284255)
LDP official says supports more tax cuts--Jiji
Thailand first to buy gold out in the open.
Thailand hunts for gold to boost eroded reserves
01:38 a.m. Jan 08, 1998 Eastern
By Anchalee Koetsawang
BANGKOK, Jan 8 ( Reuters ) - Thailand is hunting for gold to boost sagging reserves hit by the baht's free fall, officials and trade sources said on Thursday.
The Thai government is launching a campaign to urge gold shops and the public to swap their stores of the precious metal for bonds.
Thousands of gold shops throughout the country have agreed to contribute one kilogram ( 32.2 troy ounces ) of gold each to the government, a finance ministry official said.
''The government intends to issue bonds of either three-year or five-year maturity which are likely to carry an annual interest rate of five percent in exchange for the gold,'' the official told Reuters.
In return, the shops and members of the public willing to contribute to the scheme will be issued government bonds.
The collected gold will be used to shore up the country's fast-crumbling reserves, depleted by the baht's plunge of more than 50 percent since it was floated last July.
One kilogram of gold is worth around 450,000 baht ( around $8,500 ) at current prices in Thailand, and roughly $9,100 at current world prices.
On Thursday, the Thai baht hit a new record low of 53.40 per dollar, buffeted by the region's currency crisis.
Kitti Tangsithpakdi, president of the Gold Traders Association of Thailand, said gold shops will also act as centres for the collection of contributed gold.
''We estimate that there is around 3,000-4,000 tonnes of gold holdings in the country. I think we can raise as much as 100 tonnes if the government needs it,'' he told Reuters.
With the price of gold in Thailand at 6,800 baht per 15 grams, these holdings would be worth about $26-$35 billion at current exchange rates, he noted.
Details of the campaign will be finalised next week after a meeting between the government and the gold trade.
The Government Savings Bank is likely to be selected as the issuer of the bonds, traders said, but it was not immediately clear what the government would do with the gold.
One option would be to refine it and export it to obtain much-needed foreign currency, according to trade sources.
Thailand is weathering its worst economic crisis in decades, afflicted by a severe liquidity crunch and troubles in its finance sector.
''This is a time to help the country. The world gold price is so low now. Instead of selling it, one should swap it for government bonds to help the country,'' Kitti said.
Gold closed at $283.60 per ounce on Wednesday in New York. It hit an 18-year low of $280.50 during trading on Monday.
Kitti said the value of the gold to be swapped for bonds, whether bullion or ornamental gold, would be based on the pricing for 99.99 percent pure gold.
The International Monetary Fund, which sponsored a $17.2 billion bail-out package for crisis-hit Thailand, suggested that the country maintain minimum foreign reserves of $24.5 billion this year.
Thailand's foreign reserves stood at $26.9 billion as of December 15.
When the rescue package was mapped out, it was based on a projection that the baht would stabilise at around 32.00 to the dollar.
With the baht plunging below the 53-level, analysts said Thailand's foreign reserves would come under severe pressure.
"Sakakibara had told Japanese reporters that if the Asian currency
free-fall was allowed to continue, it would lead to American
Martin Armstrong of PEI radio interview.
Taped this today late afternoon. WOW!!!
The Euro goes live on May 1st???
Q. Stocks and bonds are moving in opposite directions, what is happening?
Martin Armstrong:
What is interesting right now is that we are getting this flight to quality here
so the bonds are moving up fairly rapidly. I think the bond market is probably
going up to the 128 zone fairly soon with this whole Asian crisis continuing
and getting worse.
Hopefully the stock market will remain in this sideways fashion for the first
part of the year. The S&P has made a technical new high above last year by
25 tics and that is a cautionary note that the market is capable of blowing out
to the upside. That means we could hit a high around mid summer and then
maybe suffer a significant selloff.
Q. What is happening with the dollar?
Martin Armstrong:
Nobody seems to understand, they think this is just some hedge funds and
spec positions; this is really really big capital flows. I was just talking to
someone on a very major bond desk and was told six months ago people
would come in and say where is the bid, now they just come in and say
buy me five billion at five years now. They are not even asking prices anymore.
This is big capital coming into the United States.
Q. Where is it going to push the yen?
Martin Armstrong:
I think the dollar yen is going at least to 145 and that is a conservative target.
The next target after that is about 160 and the most extreme projection by
mid year would be at 200.
Q. The bonds will be the main beneficiary of the dollar buying?
Martin Armstrong:
For the last three months all of the big foreign institutions don't even ask me
about the stock market anymore. Everybody is asking about the dollar, interest
rates and the budget surplus. Nobody asks about the DOW anymore. That
seemed to die out at the end of the third quarter. So what I sense is that the big
foreign capital is most interested in the dollar and the bond market. That is
reflected in the way the two are moving opposite right now.
Q. But as long as the dollar is strong, is the bull market still intact, can the
dollar get too strong and begin to threaten the stock market?
Martin Armstrong:
As long as the dollar is strong there really isn't a chance for a major 1987 style
40% crash. That happened because the dollar was weakening and everybody was leaving. Now the capital is sill pouring in. Yes, we could get a correction in the stock market; yes, we could go back and test the old S&P low in the 830/840 area. I think that is probably the maximum downside area.
Q. If we go into the summer and hit a new high, and face the July correction that
you predict; if the dollar is still strong then the correction will be less dramatic?
Martin Armstrong:
Yes. What will happen, and of course Indonesia has gone completely nuts, the
first inkling is to go towards USG bonds, a flight to quality. In the middle of
the year, starting around May 1st you have got this European currency crisis
developing too. Now if this begins to spread into those governments then what
is happening in Germany right now is they are buying the stocks as a hedge against the currency weakness. The DAX just keeps making new highs, out performing the US market. There has been a plunge in their savings rate, going out of currency and bonds and into stocks. If you own bonds in Germany you will automatically be converted at the governments choice into the Euro at whatever the conversion rate will be. If you own stocks, you will not, and that is why the European stock markets are going up dramatically. These markets will collapse big time. It could be in early 1999 or mid year if the EMU sneaks the Euro dollar in as of May 1st, because of the volatility of the currency markets. At May 1st they say they will fix the various currencies to the Euro, but the Euro won't yet exist until Jan 1st, 1999. It would be a tremendous risk to Europe and the Euro to try and fix the currencies to a fictitious currency. Consequently the government would not even be able to intervene against it. It is a brilliant political ploy.
If the DOW closes below 7700 tomorrow, we will have an outside reversal week. This is construed as the kiss of death for any market. But, that is a very big if, because those reversals on a weekly chart are indeed rare, however highly reliable. Just watch out for it tomorrow. The odds are that it won't happen because life is not that simple. If it did happen, it would be the easiest short sale of the decade. Of course, this is just my opinion, but should this pattern develop, I'll be shorting next week's rally with a vengeance. Just watch for it.
If this pattern actually forms and we rally early next week, after two days of strong buying should do it. If this pattern develops and we continue moving lower early in the week and rally late in the week. then Friday's close would be a nice time and price to sell. To be sure, if this pattern developed, I will be jumping up and down. I'll watch closely and post to you when I sell.


(Fri Jan 09 1998 05:14 - ID#228283)
@sharefin...What a post!!

It will be interesting to see this play out. What's with palladium? Anyone?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 05:16 - ID#228111)
Synthetic gold
Hi! I was wondering anyone can comment about this Swiss
laboratory is capable of creating gold? If this is true
can this explain why the gold price is going down and most
central banks are dumping it?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 05:24 - ID#26793)
Brazil sees problems from Asian crisis

(Fri Jan 09 1998 05:30 - ID#228283)

This rumour started back in 1982,but at that time it alledgedly cost over $1000 an ounce to make. The price of gold dropped then,too. It seems the evil spirits will do anything to lower the price of gold.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 05:34 - ID#228283)
@Donald A..but THEY say it wont hurt the U.S. much..Hah.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 05:41 - ID#26793)
Mexican peso "is acting strangely"

(Fri Jan 09 1998 05:47 - ID#26793)
Drop in oil prices may lead to Venezuelan devaluation.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 05:51 - ID#228283)
FTSE down 115.+ doesn't any one care?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 05:55 - ID#26793)
Major peruvian gold mine in dispute involving Newmont

(Fri Jan 09 1998 05:58 - ID#26793)
Chilean peso hit by Asia crisis; "this wasn't expected"

(Fri Jan 09 1998 06:03 - ID#228283)
FTSE- 122 falling out of bed... Me..fallining into bed, g'nite.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 06:03 - ID#26793)
1/3 of Chilean exports go to Asia.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 06:05 - ID#26793)
IMF making payments to Russia, Korea

(Fri Jan 09 1998 06:15 - ID#24095)
Early morning prediction: Wall Street will be down between 150-200 pts.
by days end...a no brainer! Sea change occurring...S & P puts!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 06:30 - ID#255151)
By George, They Got It!

Mainstream Washington pundit sounds the economic
alarm. See article by Morton Kondracke. ( I wonder
if he's been reading Kitco? )

(Fri Jan 09 1998 06:57 - ID#255151)
S&P Downgrade Indonesian Rating

From double B plus to double B. Sounds like double secret probation.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 07:00 - ID#320441)
World Stock Market (Tao Jones)
Awake markets only:

3 up, 33 down, overall average change: -1.7%

Mike Stewart
(Fri Jan 09 1998 07:17 - ID#270253)
New Lows - Toronto Mining Issues
I mentioned a couple of days ago that the XAU/Toronto Golds were due for correction after their late December surge. I am paying close attention to the new lows at this time. At major tops, the number of new lows usually increase as the market makes new highs in price. The opposite occurs at bottoms, particularly major bottoms ( eg. McClellan Summation Index under -1500, -2000 even better ) .

When you have less than six new lows on the Toronto Mining issues, this is healthy. We had that condition for four days in row from last Thursday to Tuesday. We had 10 on Wednesday and 11 yesterday. This compares with 100 new lows on November 26th. In a perfect world, the new lows would stay below 6 as we finish this correction. It is important that the new lows dry up over the next two or three days. This would indicate that the bottom is in ( I think it is for most gold issues ) .

Remember that "W" bottoms are common, "V" bottoms are rare. The tough part is figuring out where the "W" sits. Using the McClellan Summation Index to determine major lows seems useful.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 07:18 - ID#254269)
@ Haggis_A; Your 3.06 needs to be censored, it is not suitable fr general viewing.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 07:34 - ID#287280)
Donald your captions are clever, often brilliant.
Youre making bad news bearable! Thank you.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 07:38 - ID#364147)
Glad I sold more stock on Wed......even if we're having an ice-storm
S+P futures down 6.30 and Feb. gold @ UNCH....Looks like another 'equity bloodbath' is goin on and now we have the volatile-market-moving 'employment report' out in less than an hour.......

(Fri Jan 09 1998 07:39 - ID#364147)
Consensus estimate of 200,000 jobs created......

(Fri Jan 09 1998 07:45 - ID#57232)
South America weakening!
Donald: Looks like South America is now picking up the financial flu -- I had expected this months ago after some of your posts, sold may Latin Amercian mutual funds, only to watch it go up another 30%. I knew this couldn't last! I thought Brazil was going to be the weak link -- now it appears there are several weak links!

Any news about a China devaluation? If that happens right now, the world would be in deeper trouble! Good time to stay in short term treasuries or hard currency assets, and wait for the dust to settle.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 07:48 - ID#35767)
Employment Report
This has to be strong to maintain confidence in the US as the Dollar is the bailout unit. Look for a staggering gain in jobs to be reported. Special NEED now to shore up confidence. Any hint of US slowdown would spell big time trouble. Therefore, I believe a slowdown will never be reported. Eventually the markets will takeover from the govtal numbers.
Almost half the jobs created in this wonderful economy since 1990 would not support a family at the poverty level.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 07:48 - ID#57232)
Whale spouts should melt the ice on your deck!
Ted: Why don't you ask your whale friends to come close to the beach and exhale on your deck? If they keep it up, your deck won't freeze on you! But -- I must say I don't know if they brush their teeth!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 07:53 - ID#254269)
@ Donald; Did you ever post your ratios yesterday ? I had computer and
access problems and never saw them if you did.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 07:54 - ID#398105)
sharefin...........Thailand and gold

G'Day from Kalgoorlie.

Most likely unknown to the Thais', they actually have a series of gold mineralisation belts which are relatively un-explored. These occur near Sra Kaeo in the Rayong District east of Bangkok, at Pa Ron in the Prachuap Khiri Khan Province, and a northern extensions of the Malaysian Central gold belt. Extensive placer deposits have also been historically mined near Chiegmai.

Very early stage regional exploration status, therefore potential


Styles and distribution of gold mineralisation in Thailand.
by Tate-N-M
Bicentennial Gold 88, Melbourne, Victoria, May 16-20, 1988. Volume 1. Posterprogramme - extended abstracts,
compiled by A.D.T. Goode, E.L. Smyth, W.D Birch and L.I. Bosma. Geological Society of Australia. Abstracts.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:02 - ID#320441)
The Optimum Gold Price

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:02 - ID#364147)
JTF-ROR....whale breath-gov'ment #'s--BART'S e-mail address
JTF: My large friends have left Cape Breton ( do you blame them? ) -so no exhaling will be goin on...ROR: are you intimating the gov'ment fudges the #'s ( don't you trust anyone? ) ...Does anyone have BART'S e-mail address???

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:07 - ID#287280)
IHT--Friday, Jan 9, 1998
Korean President-Elect Blames Strongman Rule
People Were 'Deceived' on Economy, Kim Says
By Kevin Sullivan Washington Post Service

ILSAN, South Korea - President-elect Kim Dae Jung of South
Korea on Thursday attributed much of Asia's financial crisis to
governments that lie to their people and authoritarian leaders who
have placed economic growth ahead of democratic freedoms.

''Many of the leaders of Asian society have been saying that military
dictatorship was the way and democracy was not good for their
nations,'' Mr. Kim said, in a 90-minute interview with the
Washington Post at his home in this suburb of Seoul.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:10 - ID#364147)
WSJ Asia crap
January 9, 1998

Indonesian News, Currency Woes
Continue to Cripple Asian Markets


Asian markets were rattled Friday by uncertainty over Indonesia's
economic health, as well as the volatile currency market in the region.

Investors were still reeling over the 12% drop in Indonesia's equities
market and 26% drop in the rupiah the day before. Stocks had fallen
when the currency dropped amid reports that a $40 billion International
Monetary Fund bailout plan was unraveling.

Jakarta's market steadied somewhat Friday, closing mixed, with the
composite index down 1% on huge selling in the mining and agricultural
shares in huge volumes.

But Manila continued to plunge, falling 8.3% after a 5.2% drop on
Thursday. Philippines investors have been unnerved by the domestic
economic outlook. The drop was the third largest single-day points loss on
record, traders said.

Investors have plenty of concerns, as
adjustments in wages, a rise in oil prices,
widespread layoffs, further depreciation of the
peso, higher interest rates and an eventual
spike in consumer prices are all possibilities.

Shares in Hong Kong fell 3.9% in the latest session in 1988, with the
blue-chip Hang Seng Index traded below the benchmark 9000 level
during most of the day.

Singapore's market fell 7.4% and Kuala Lumpur's market fell 3.1% in
fallout over Indonesia's woes. Likewise, Australia fell 1.8%.

Tokyo stocks were mixed, but well off their lows following reports that a
senior official of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party said the government
might need to continue the 2 trillion yen special tax cuts beyond this year.

Thai share prices fell 2.9% on concerns over rising bad debt and
upcoming capital increases at local banks as the Thai baht set new all-time
lows. Share prices on the Korea Stock Exchange fell 2.3%, ending a
seven-day gaining streak, in what analysts explain as a technical

Meanwhile, Southeast Asian currencies strengthened in late Asian trading
Friday as jittery traders squared their currency positions amid talk of
impending intervention by regional and Group of Seven central banks. The
rumors were also encouraged when news spread that President Bill
Clinton and Indonesia President Suharto talked about the region's
problems on the telephone.

As with Thursday's sharp drop against the U.S. currency, Friday's
correction was led by the Indonesian rupiah, traders said. After the rupiah
shot to a record high of 10,550 early Friday in Asia, the U.S. dollar eased
to 7,675. Late Thursday in Asia, it was trading at 10,225 to the dollar.

Late Friday in Asia, the U.S. dollar was at 4.6540 ringgit, down from
4.7450 a day earlier, and at 1.7750 Singapore dollars, down from
S$1.7895 late Thursday.

The U.S. currency was also trading at 53.000 Thai baht from 55.000 late
Thursday in Asia.

The Philippine peso rose against the dollar Friday, buoyed by lower
demand for the U.S. currency following the launch this week of
foreign-exchange risk protection for unhedged corporate dollar
borrowers. At the close, the dollar averaged 44.558 peso on the
Philippine Dealing System, up 42.4 centavos from 44.982 at Thursday's
reference rate.

The Hong Kong dollar was slightly higher in late trading Friday from levels
a day ago, but weaker from midday levels after the Hong Kong
Association of Banks raised the savings deposit rate by 75 basis points.
The interest rate hike was widely expected since Hong Kong interbank
rates have been steadily rising all week in the wake of Asia's deepening
financial crisis.

Return to top of page
Copyright  1998 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:12 - ID#287280)
IHT, Friday Jan 9, 1998
Prudence By Zurich Pays Off
By Philip Segal International Herald Tribune
HONG KONG - As one of the first big Western buyers to snap up
bargains amid the wreckage in corporate Asia, Zurich Insurance
Co. of Switzerland provides a lesson for those still shopping around:
Leave yourself a way out.
The Full Story

Yen Is Left on Its Own After Top Officials Meet
By Clay Chandler and Paul Blustein Washington Post Service
ASHINGTON - The links between Asia's financial crisis and
Japan's financial health were highlighted Thursday after a meeting
between top finance officials of Japan and the United States failed to
result in concerted intervention in currency markets to prop up the
The Full Story

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:19 - ID#364147)
WSJ --PM report
old Futures End the Day
At Lowest Level Since 1979


After repeatedly flirting with the $281-an-ounce mark in the last month,
the nearby gold future dipped below the key psychological level Thursday,
touching an 18-year low.

In heavy trading at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile
Exchange, February gold fell $2.90 to $281.80 a troy ounce, the lowest
closing price since 1979. During the trading day, the active February
contract dipped below $280, hitting $279 an ounce, a life-of-contract low.

A sharp sell-off in silver and a negative reading on the November
producers' price index helped send gold to the new low, analysts said.
"Gold is following [silver], and the new lows in prices touched off more
selling," by speculators and traders, said Timothy Porter, a commodities
analyst at Refco Inc. in New York. Many speculative commodity funds
enter buy and sell orders when markets pass through key technical levels
such as the range between $281 and $282 in gold.

While some gold bulls took consolation in the precious metal's strong
finish, the price did bounce more than $2 an ounce from its intraday low,
other market participants pointed out that the buying back of gold from
producers had slowed Thursday from a rapid pace earlier in the week.

The most recent whiff of deflation, Thursday's reading that producer prices
fell 0.2% in December, also touched off further selling pressure, analysts
said. Many investors buy or hold gold with the belief that it will outperform
financial assets in times of inflation or rising prices.

William O'Neill, chief futures strategist for Merrill Lynch in New York,
says gold had been propped up in recent weeks by the strength of silver,
which has jumped from below $5.00 an ounce in November to over
$6.00 an ounce last month.

But Thursday, "silver was a bloodbath," said Mr. O'Neill, after the active
March silver contract dropped 24.5 cents, or 4.1%, to $5.773 a troy
ounce, the lowest closing price since Dec. 9. "From a long-term supply
and demand viewpoint, I have a hard time becoming bullish on silver," he
continued. "It has been more of a play than it has been a supply-demand
driven market. The reality of precious metals and commodities is that they
are in a very negative pattern. They are hinting at deflation."

Fear that the oft-talked about play could soon come to an end helped cool
off the recent rally in silver. For weeks, some analysts and traders have
contended that a large bullion bank and several hedge funds have been
hoarding silver in an attempt to drive prices up. Thursday, prices shot
down in early trading when the rumor spread across the Comex pits that
several market participants were considering a class-action lawsuit alleging
manipulation of the market. And even while many traders said they would
be surprised to see a suit of this sort, talk of its possibility was enough to
cause some bullish traders to take profits from the recent rally.

Rumors about a possible lawsuit, regardless of its merit, "have given some
traders an occasion to sell," says Joseph Rosta, an analyst for CPM
Group, a New York metals-research firm.

In other commodity markets Thursday:

GRAINS AND OILSEEDS: March soybean futures tumbled to
contract lows Thursday as weak Asian economies continued to batter
export demand for commodities, analysts said. A sharp downturn in
Indonesia's currency, the rupiah, accompanied by news reports of
Indonesian shoppers crowding stores to stock up on food, weakened
soybean and meal futures from the open

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:20 - ID#93232)
@CJS.....your 4:19.....
This is a wonderful allegory. Your work shows your deductive skills and writing power. A must read. Your points are well taken, and in my case, adopted.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:25 - ID#287280)
What a Timeline!
IHT, Friday, Jan 9, 1998

Going Bust Takes Time In Korea
Bankrupt Firms Get Up to 20 Years of Grace
Bloomberg News

SEOUL - Hanbo Steel & General Construction Co. has been
languishing in South Korea's bankruptcy court for a year now, and
still none of its creditors have been paid.

Just as the company's collapse was a portent of the perils of years
of reckless expansion, its bankruptcy experience shows how hard it
will be for the country to recover.

This year, about 500 Seoul-based companies have followed Hanbo
into receivership. Companies mired in legal proceedings cannot
restructure to help pull Korea out of an economic crisis that will all
but wipe out growth this year.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:26 - ID#398105) are new here?

It is made by the Swiss Central Bank, using ingredients mostly imported from Ghana in West Africa. The Swiss prefer a yellow colouration over the normal dark brown, but they do vary it according to taste. The Swiss are world leaders in this industry. They are widely known to eat a lot of synthetic gold on a first date - guess what it is called?!

Learn to YOOODALLLLLLLLLL......................

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:27 - ID#364147)
Consensus est. of 200,000 jobs created and the 'reality' is: 370,000 ( WOW )

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:31 - ID#364147)
ROR- Strong Employment Report
Good call dude....Most jobs were created in service sector..Long Bond down 7 ticks~~~~~~~~~~

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:34 - ID#398105)
International Stock Market Indices and Graphs

VERY good book mark - also a new financial forum.

Check out the Singapore Straits and Hang Seng Indices......

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:34 - ID#93232)
@To Whom It May Concern....
A very weak and brief radio transmission from the Paper Tiger January Ott Niner, PT 1/09, was received this morning at 9:01 CST. The message was as follows: "Oh My .....All is lost...Tell my........PT1/ is ov.... ( silence ) ."
May we now have a brief moment of silence. ( silence again ) Our prayers are with these people and theirs...and now..."Let's Play Ball!"

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:36 - ID#26793)
Couldn't get on until late. Here they are again: DG=27.70, XAU/Spot=.233,

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:39 - ID#26793)
I looked for China devaluation stuff but found nothing. How can they escape? Every country in the world is devaluing against the dollar. We can't escape either but for us to devaluate we can only do it against gold. Hang in there.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:43 - ID#398105)
How do you say " G'Day Mate " in German...............try it!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:48 - ID#26793)
American taxpayers stiffed for Korean gambling debts

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:50 - ID#254269)
The Players ; Article on Page A10 of today's WSJ profiles four of the
main US Bankers in the Korea crisis; Ernest Stern, William Rhodes,
David Pflug Jr. and Gerald Corrigan. I think these are the guys who were in the meeting with The Chairman in CJS" 4.19 . Can someone post electronically ? TIA

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:53 - ID#364147)
JACK(1:42)..............and 'Chicken Little' lives
Jack-bro: "Chicken Little' was ME~~~~~~~~~~

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:55 - ID#93232)
@Avalon....BIG D...not Switzerland no mo'.....
Is your office downtown?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:57 - ID#26793)
Inspectors fail to find signs Chernobyl reactor is healing

(Fri Jan 09 1998 08:57 - ID#356379)
Chart Technical Analysis

It has been my experience that most major changes in long term trends are preceeded by a "spike" ( either up or down ) of significant proportions which is an emotional death rattle of the previous trend. This type of thing is almost a rerequirement before the new trend can get under weigh.

We seem to have just experienced this pivotal event in the price of gold.


(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:02 - ID#26793)
I agree. In the Dow/Gold Ratio I think we saw it on December 9th followed by a 9% drop in 11 trading days. On a yearly chart of 1996-1997 it is visually astounding.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:03 - ID#78116)
Gold Still Heading Down
Its amazing that in the worst financial crisis in the post WWII era and the 'safe haven' that gold continues to lose value. What once was a safe haven in the good old days of financial panics is no more.

Gold is suffering from the Asian flu. Since the won, ringgat and Rupiah price of gold has gone up, demand in those regions of the world has to drop. The price and income effects will continue to take the price of gold down.

Add to that the desire of cb's to get out of a non-performing asset and into something that has a real return and you get a continuation if not an acceleration in the price decline of gold.

I am sure I will be attacked for saying this as hopelessly naive, but this has been the story I have been trying to tell you all for some three months now, during that time gold has gone generally in one direction.... down.

Hear me now, believe me later.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:03 - ID#22451)
Indonesia recovery
Prediction-Now that BC has convinced Indonesia of their errant ways, watch the run on Indonesia reverse. What does this tell you if this event does indeed happen? I will follow up with reasons this evening.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:03 - ID#254269)
More WSJ articles; Page B6B, Mining Companies found little profit in 4th Qtr. as gold sags.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:03 - ID#398105)
Donald..........The Chinese and GOLD

One must remember that China is larger than Australia.

Maybe they have got more GOLD than you realise...............

In north-western China there are 14 gold provinces

1. E'erguna

2. Xiaoxing Anling

3. Jiayin Luobei

4. Huanan Laoyeling

5. Taipingling

6. Hadaling

7. Longgang Mudanling

8. Yingkou Kuandian

9. Yishan Nuiu'erhushan

10. Yanshan

11. wutai Taihang

12. Ludong

13. Zhongtiaoshan

14. Xiaoqinling

Now these are all geologically similar to gold mineralisation found in Western Australia, ie Archaean Shear host type.

the Chinese also have a gold province in south-east China, equivalent to gold mineralisation found in Nevada. The USGS have been active in this area for 3 years?

Also, the Himalayas........very large potential for epithermal gold-silver, similar to that found in South East Asia.


(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:04 - ID#335196)
I've been a subscriber to Nick Guardino's "Wall Street Underground" for
almost two years now based on a ONE year subscription. Reason: every 'monthly' issue has been late, arriving every TWO months instead. Any other subscribers out there experiencing this?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:11 - ID#333131)
@dollar watch
Ridgerunner, Your observation concerning spikes signaling trend changes: We have just experienced rapid run ups in the dollar and US treasuries, and rapid run downs in oil and gold. This is I believe a precursor to trend changes in all four markets and can be seen as the inverse of events in the early 80's. Add to this the repeated testing of the 28.6 level in the Dow/Gold ratio which was established in 1980 and you have an imminent mega trend change in paper versus hard assets.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:11 - ID#254269)
@ STUDIO.R; Preston Center area of Dallas. We have a branch office in Zurich.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:12 - ID#26793)
You are right. That is more than I realized. But it is useless in the ground. They need to make a political decision to get it out of the ground, turn it into coins, and use it to pay their bills and let their citizens save it and exchange it legally.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:13 - ID#398105)
Karlito - your comments on the posting by NightWriter

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:14 - ID#287280)
CB Printing: Unintended Consequences
What is being destroyed this time, in addition to the lives of
millions, is the belief in paper. Noone yet realizes this, for it is faraway--exotic, subtle and yet, inexorable. As they fall, the fiats,
one after another, humankind will begin to question the "Pricers"
and the wisdom of ignoring value. IMHO

Corrigan is G30. They ( G30 ) did a much admired derivatives study, oft
mentioned in banking circles ( Mayer ) . It would appear
that the battle is fully engaged: Camdesuss & IMF on the endangered
species list; Corrigan, Trichet, G30, wielding sabers, on the move.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:15 - ID#20137)
Looking around ...
it seems that the forex traders have to be looking a the U.S. dollar. They have down well in Asia, they are moving west, but they must be salivating when they look at the U.S. dollar. It is at a high. U.S. has been loaning money everywhere, they are printing like there is no tomorrow, their market is starting the downward spiral, .

The dollar is in danger.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:15 - ID#398105)
Donald, we are talking abount China - the Government would have ALL

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:16 - ID#249147)

May have some continued selling today to 5.60 but starting to look less dangerous to buy given the speed of the world printing press. Mom and Pop are still buying bonds though.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:17 - ID#93232)
I worked for years for the Murchison family ( Clint, Jr. ) and have many great friends and family in your fabulous city. Old dear oil partner, Bill Bledsoe ( ex Hunt biggy ) ...Robert Murchison ( the best ) and Berry Cox ( all around great guy ) . I love Big D. and its industrious people...Kudos to your town.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:21 - ID#256201)
@ Y2K
Concerning defense against EVIL.

As a firm believer in a Kind, Loving, JUST Father in heaven, I feel I must accept all He has placed
at my disposal.

In daily run of the mill life and in politics as well as social and economic areas.

I believe He was instrumental in the opening up of the Americas to the europeans who had
learned that man is not to be a slave to government or a religious institution.

It is my considered belief that we are expected to do the very best we are capable of doing, using
the tools at our disposal.
He has put innumerable tools in our way, to use or not as WE choose.

I believe He intends for us to use any and all as needed.

After all, ( I believe ) He gave us a glorious Constitution at the hands of men whom ( I believe ) he
raised up for the purposes to which they devoted their "Lives, Fortunes and Sacred Honor".
The purposes being of course, the GUARANTEEING of the Freedoms enumerated in the Bill of
Can you imagine how difficult it would be to stop a criminal advance by government against us
and OUR Constitution by reminding it that we have a 1st amendment we" are gonna use against
you if you continue in your egregious behavior".?
I truly believe we have a Second Amendment to that Constitution for the express purpose of
warning government to get back into its hole and not tread too heavily upon us or our GOD GIVEN
It is difficult to imagine any government retreating in fear of our Right to speak out or to pray
against its encroachments. Assembly without weapons is without any means of surviving force.The
First Amendment is of little effect in a society and world which recognizes only brute force.

Further, I do not believe we were given this great land just so we could relinquish responsibility for
maintaining its GOD GIVEN FREEDOMS.
The fact of the entire Constitution being developed by men is more than enough to convince me
that HE had His hand in its every stage of development.
From the beginnings of the Social Contract and the English Common Law,

I too pray I shall not have to use deadly force to defend myself and mine. I am sure it will only be
required to be used against immoral force, be it of government or gangs or individuals.

To me Murder is the shedding of Innocent Blood. I can picture no predator ( criminal ) as being of
Innocent Blood.
Government in violation of The Constitution is in fact, criminal
Look how many times the Israelites shed blood in maintaining their rights.

I believe we are no better or worse than were they. We should be prepared to do all needful things
to maintain freedom of the individual so His Plan can reach fruition.
As I'm sure you know all Of His plans are carried out by men.
Mere men such as we.
Not wanting to violate your right to believe as you choose, but to explain a similar yet different point
of view.
That of a determined Believer and your Brother.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:28 - ID#20137)
The way they hit silver ...
yesterday, makes it look like they are in a panic. Government is buying bonds, stocks, ... and still the death spiral has started. Palladium is very strong, this is an important time. ANOTHER should have something worth hearing by now.

Can anyone tell me what the data was on comex stocks for silver and gold yesterday?

Thanks in advance.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:32 - ID#287280)
Euro Union: P-O-V from Der Spiegel
Cover story about Europe in 2000: A peaceful revolution is
changing Europe from the bottom up. First, the new currency, the
euro, will come, followed by the expansion of the European Union
to the east - the United States of Europe will arise on an economic
basis. The old continent enters into competition with America and
Asia as a new world power. However - its citizens are wary of the
whole development, for the revolution has been initiated by the
heads of state and government, NOT BY THE PEOPLE ( caps SDRer ) .
The revolution of 1998 is unthinkable without the revolution of 1989. Prevailing opinion has it that Helmut Kohl obtained the agreement of the West- particularly of France - for the reunification of Germany thanks to
his promise to push for European integration. Today, the EU is still
what it has been from the beginning: a means of tying Germany
into Europe.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:36 - ID#254269)
@ STUDIO.R; I have met Clint III; perhaps you can email me at and we could
continue this converation privately, thanks. P.S. I was kidding about the
Zurich office.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:39 - ID#93232)
I want to thank you for your amazing posts and worldly perspective...they have certainly expanded my horizon.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:42 - ID#398105)
Myrmidon............CB and gold production

The link is there via Rothchild. Think of it in terms of 100 years of gold production from South Africa. 1 200 million ounces of gold approx have been mined via South Africa, worth approx US$360 000 million

Historically who financied the gold exploration, development and production - Rothchild and associates ( Oppenheimers )

Today, who are the two largest mining companies in the world - Anglo American Corportation and Rio Tinto. Who is "behind" these companies - Rothchild

Which Bank do Anglo and Rio Tinto form the Board of - Barclays. And which stable is this bank from - Rothchild

Who controls the London Bullion marketing Association - Rothchild.

Who are ex-Rothchild employees - Greenspan and Rubin.

What is Rubins' current job - US Treasurer

Who has a discret but effective control of the FED - Rothchild

When the crunch comes, it will be interest

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:43 - ID#398105)
Myrmidon............CB and gold production

The link is there via Rothchild. Think of it in terms of 100 years of gold production from South Africa. 1 200 million ounces of gold approx have been mined via South Africa, worth approx US$360 000 million

Historically who financied the gold exploration, development and production - Rothchild and associates ( Oppenheimers )

Today, who are the two largest mining companies in the world - Anglo American Corportation and Rio Tinto. Who is "behind" these companies - Rothchild

Which Bank do Anglo and Rio Tinto form the Board of - Barclays. And which stable is this bank from - Rothchild

Who controls the London Bullion marketing Association - Rothchild.

Who are ex-Rothchild employees - Greenspan and Rubin.

What is Rubins' current job - US Treasurer

Who has a discret but effective control of the FED - Rothchild

When the crunch comes, it will be interesting to see which currency is left standing - the US Dollar or the British Sterling?!

................ect, ect, ect............

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:44 - ID#287280)
Haggis, A question please...

Would it be possible for the Chinese to be actively mining
without knowledge of that activity being apparent to western eyes?

They have consistently said they would not devalue: this could be
western-type PR confidence propaganda; or, they may well have meant
what they said in '93-94--that they would back their currency with gold
when the "time was propitious". In addition to buying, might they
have been mining?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:49 - ID#287280)
Studio.R--Many thanks!

...and Kitco runs on reciprocity! ( :- )

Spud Master
(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:51 - ID#273112)
Karlito has switched to the "injured virtue" defense now, claiming:

"Its amazing that in the worst financial crisis in the post WWII era and the 'safe haven' that gold continues to lose value. What once was a safe haven in the good old days of financial panics is no more. "

What is amazing is the CONCERTED, DESPERATE efforts by the would-be rulers of human destiny to control, pervert, manipulate any and everything - the Press, the price of gold, governements in a DESPERATE attempt to maintain their POWER over the free people of the world.

And Karlita, with flatulent sincereity, points to the drop in the price of gold, and says, with crocodile innocence: "See? What more PROOF do you need that gold is worthless?! The paradigm has changed! Don't be a FOOL like these looser gold-bugs! BUY MORE PAPER PROMISES! ( screaming now ) LOOK HOW MUCH THE MARKET DID IN THE LAST FIFTEEN YEARS! IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO IT ******FOREVER*******." But like Dorthy, we are being told to ignore the man behind the curtain. The flames licking up the marvelous, Brave New World the paper-pushers built in South East Asia. "Pay no attention to that!!" Karlita shrieks.

Karlita is being well-paid, no doubt for the his/her disinformation presecence here. She continues:

"I am sure I will be attacked for saying this as hopelessly naive, but this has been the story I have been trying to tell you all for some three months now, during that time gold has gone generally in one direction."

No, you are not being attacked for being naive.

You know exactly what you are doing.

You are manipulating the audience here, trying to bolster the sagging, rotting confidence in trillions upon trillions of worthless paper-promises, while you and your cronies live like kings & Queens.

The free people of the world shall not be crucified on an unholy cross of fiat paper!


(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:52 - ID#20137)
How about this SDRer...
Brazil Bovespa Index ^BVSP 9:53AM 9357 -301 -3.12%

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:55 - ID#398105)

Yes it is possible. you must also remember that the Brits have been trading with the Chinese via Hong Kong for A LONG TIME. The history behind Hong Kong is gold and drugs.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:56 - ID#20137)
Friday January 9, 9:04 am Eastern Time

Brazil shrs dive in early on Asia woes, await Dow

SAO PAULO, Jan 9 ( Reuters ) - Brazilian stocks fell 3.45 percent in early trade Friday on the back of overnight drops in key Asian markets and
on expectations Wall Street also would open down, brokers said.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:57 - ID#408147)
morning PM bashing
...looks like another morning of early selling of gold at the open of trading in NY. Every day it seems to be getting harder and harder for gold to bounce back. If gold can get back to 281 by the end of day that would be a good sign, otherwise -- look out below!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 09:58 - ID#398105)
SPUD MASTER......we were all innocent at one point, until after our first ROOT

(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:02 - ID#333131)
SDRer and Haggis, Is Barrick in China?
It seems to me I remember an annoucement from Barrick a few years ago about an agreement with China for exploration or techical help or something along that line. Do you or anyone know if they are there and what they are doing?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:02 - ID#398105)

(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:05 - ID#333447)
SDRer re Chinese gold mining
Good perspective. If the Burma Rd could be done with the Chinese dragline,I would expect the same method to reap one hell of a mess of placer from Chinese watrways.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:05 - ID#285233)
Money Supply Rates
tgl & All-

as I stated yesterday, the money supply rates for all countries with significant economies are increasing at an unbelievable rates.

As confirmed by Mr.Rogers ( Rogers Holdings ) on this morning's CNBC Puppet show, the Japanese CB figures for December '97 show the rate at 1 full percent PER DAY resulting in an increase of 30% + for that month. This figure would be considered excessive had it been for 5 years. .....

Yet gold is signaling deflation. Perhaps, the psychological mindset is in and no amount of money supply expansion at this point is going to alter what is due to come. Not until deflation runs its course and the world's debt is settled. Who the hell knows anymore!!!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:07 - ID#93232)
Re: Kaczynski (uniboggler) and attempted suicide and as it relates to $278 gold...
I went to my underwear drawer this morning only to find my dear Lini had hidden all my shorts...she still wants me around! ( a warm feeling )

(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:08 - ID#287280)
World's potential for political chaos grows daily....

SPIEGEL report about the miserable conditions in the world's
potentially richest country: After six years of decline, the government has promised its people an end to the want. In Russia, however, poverty and decay progress, social differences increase, and extreme rightists hope that their hour has come. The few rich "new Russians" are faced by
the "new poverty" of those whose living conditions are worse than
under the Communists. Nine of ten Russians often or occasionally
feel "shame about the present condition of the country"; they
experience "what happens around us as unjust". That has political
consequences, perhaps also for the stability of democracy. Will the
repeatedly promised and long overdue upswing come too late, as
in Germany in 1932, and with similarly tragic consequences? Or, if
it does come, will once again only the few at the top profit?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:14 - ID#31868)
Bring me the Paperboy!
Get Camdesuss!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:16 - ID#318321)
Dow down 93! Curve looks steep!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:16 - ID#284255)
My guess
By the movements of gold one can tell of the pressure on the dow.
Capitulation soon.
On the dow as well as gold.

The equilibrium of the pendulum reigns.

Richard Burke
(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:20 - ID#411318)
Carl: The only mention of China in Barrick's 1996 Annual Report is on Page 14 where there is a world map with red dots indicating areas of "focus" for Barrick exploration. One of the red dots is marked China and is located is the mountainous area in Western China.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:24 - ID#93232)
Yo tambien to your 00:00. Don your armor comrade...Pivotal battle smells sweet like hay burning.

Richard Burke
(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:34 - ID#411318)
Spot silver is now a couple of cents above March silver. This happened to gold in late November and mid December. In one case gold went down after and in the other case up. What is it supposed to mean?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:36 - ID#288331)
Fool's Gold?
I have enjoyed the factual information presented at KITCO and have made some committments to gold and silver in recent months. All of the factual information points to HIGHER prices. Why is that not happening? What is it that we are overlooking?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:38 - ID#31868)
Full Metal/Nomex Sombrero donned and ready. ( insulated bottle of tequila as well ) Well the term "cautious optimism" bit the dust pretty quick in the media!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:43 - ID#287277)
REALITY CHECK--Re: Gold as a store of Value

Has anyone heard the BIS ( Bank of International Settlements, the Central Bank for central banks ) suggest that THEY would not keep their currency of account,



The BANKERS, when dealing with their bank, apparently still do business in GOLD--regardless of what they tell the peasants.


Vronsky, Would your Saudi businessman have any religious prohibitions
about holding the PO of a stripped bond? Thnx.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:49 - ID#78116)
Hey Spud, get a grip man
Instead of personally attacking me and my motives, try something new. How about addressing the issues I raise, like the decline in Asian demand or the desire of cbs to reduce their gold reserves.

Maybe if you spent some time looking at the fundamentals of the gold market and made your investment decisions based on reason and not emotion, you might have ended up on the right side of the market these last 15 years.

If the fundamentals for gold ever turn around, and eventually they will, I will be a buyer, but until then, the price of gold still has a way to go before we hit bottom.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:51 - ID#78116)
What happened to your bull market in silver?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:51 - ID#333131)
Richard Burke
Thanks. Also, attached is a Web page from Barrick entitled "pure exploration" which has a map with a location in China, but nothing in the text referring to China. Strange?

Good ol' boy
(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:55 - ID#26345)
Your projections regarding gold are correct from a U.S. investors's perspective, but do not hold water when viewed from the perspective of someone who held currencies issued by countries which have recently fallen into disfavor. In those countries, gold would have vbeen an excellent means of maintaining their wealth. True, the greenback would have also been good, it is a question of seeking out the best alternatives. Money goes where it is loved.

Gold remains an alternative "currency" as it is the only currency not issued and subject to the whims of governments. Gold is not being expanxed by 1% per month as the yen is. It remains more or less constant. Gold is not backed ( or not backed ) by anything. It simply is and as long as women love the stuff, as long as you can use it to buy a meal or get out of jail anywhere in this world, it will continue to serve as money.

Previously you suggested that I could not buy anything in the supermarket with it. You take some won and I will take some gold and I guarantee you I will be much more successful in arranging to buy something at the supermarket here in Phoenix than you are. I may have to trade off a little to someone outside to acquire a coupon ( paper stuff ) to make the transaction in the store, but I will get the job done.

It is going down in the U.S. and may continue to do so for a time, but things will again be brought back into equilibrium. Because gold is real, it will always continue to have value, value that can not be distorted over any great length of time by governments througout the world. When it is perceived that the dollar is overvalued as a currency compared to gold, it will rise.

Richard Burke
(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:56 - ID#411318)
Cherokee: Thanks for response to yesterday's question.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 10:57 - ID#31868)
I had not heard that. But I must say what else would you expect of them They use gold while the rest use debt paper. Is that not their end game?

They eat cake and caviar while we carpenter and cater.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 11:07 - ID#254269)
Sometimes great truths come in small sentences. Good ol' boys 10.55 last sentence.

When it is perceived that the dollar is overvalued as a currency compared to gold, it will rise.

Monkee Person
(Fri Jan 09 1998 11:08 - ID#288105)

Heard on syndicated radio: Michel Camdessus, one of the world's five most evil men...."

(Fri Jan 09 1998 11:10 - ID#28593)
Tolerant1, Yes indeedy...I also meant to stress that the
BIS's Gold Franc is not 'linked' to gold, it is DEFINED by gold.
Because, if your serious about keeping accounts ( real accounts ) ,
you've got to have a STANDARD of MEASUREMENT!

Lordy, what a sad mess...

Steve - Perth
(Fri Jan 09 1998 11:22 - ID#284177)
Steve Blizards specially edited: NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA

Over 90% of Indonesian Companies technically bankrupt


Indonesian shops in chaos as currency's wild fluctuation continues

Australian Market takes a $7.7bn hit as turmoil rages

Who is going to go next after Asia?


The Multilateral Agreement on Investment ( MAI )


Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters - Warren Buffett

Soeharto under fire as rupiah collapses

Hong Kong Dives

Indonesian economy crashes

Indonesia on the brink

Crisis talks fail to impress markets

China takes firm stand on yuan ( for now )

Currency crash sweeping Asia


Price rises to hit rich and poor

Ominous signs ignored

Seoul fights off collapse, Thais beg for mercy

Just what is the IMF anyway, and does it get it right?

Tough times spark market riots

A$ falls to 11 year low

Bank of England considers fine-tuning rates

Seoul, Bangkok face $178bn payout - European Banks flushed out?

Rubin defends Asian Bailouts

Taiwan Dollar under attack

Soros to do Korea over again - softened up for the kill

Deflation fears take bonds back to the 60s

GREENSPAN DEFLATION SPEECH: Problems of Price Measurement

The Big Currency traders arent so smart

The Year of the Tiger could be a killer

Financial breakdown means it's time to reassess IMF role - By George Soros

The Maverick - Although there seems to be a very tired bull market in the US,
a sustained correction may yet be some time away, writes Gerry van Wyngen.

Getting burned by your Company Share Scheme

After 15 years the bulls are looking for a break

Cashed-up firms swoop on Asia

Reproducing the 1930s

Japanese Banks not out of the woods

( See, nothing to worry about! Or is there? )

Mid Level Officials lobbying for Chinese Devaluation!

BOOKMARK Steves News Page:
( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )

(Fri Jan 09 1998 11:24 - ID#23782)
Good Ol Boy
You had to spoon feed him, but MAYBE he will
Well said and simply and elegantly explained!!

Crystal Ball
(Fri Jan 09 1998 11:25 - ID#287367)
@ EB
Don't you just love a coil? ( $INDU, $OEX )
Wonder which way it's gonna break. ;- )

(Fri Jan 09 1998 11:27 - ID#333131)
Your 11:10 STANDARD OF MEASUREMENT. Having spent time as a researcher at the National Bureau of Standards ( when it still had that name ) , these are exactly the terms I think in when thinking of money, economics, and the economic calculations that make an economy possible. You stated the bare bones fact in the most precise way possible.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 11:29 - ID#284255)
What's going on?
Swing chart with new sell signal.
Metals performing to expectations.
Last buying opportunity coming up real soon just not yet.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 11:31 - ID#426220)
SDRers_A: YOUR "Vronsky, Would your Saudi businessman have any religious prohibitions about holding the PO of a stripped bond? Thnx."

Don't rightly know as Arabs - like all national groups - come in 99 FLAVORS & VARIETIES.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 11:41 - ID#234311)
MF managers fess up
List of possible shorts...?

Dalbar Inc., a Boston research company, said that only 38%, or eight of the 21 custodian banks serving the $4 trillion mutual fund business, are year-2000 compliant.

12 of the 21 banks surveyed by Dalbar had yet to complete systems changes, at least in the mutual fund custody area. They include Chase Manhattan, PNC Bank in Pittsburgh, State Street Bank and Trust Co. in Boston, and Chicago-based Northern Trust. Bank One Trust Co. did not respond to the survey.

Among the institutions that told Dalbar they had already tackled the problem are: BankBoston; Bank of New York; Union Bank of California, San Francisco; and Fifth Third Bank, Cincinnati.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 11:43 - ID#20137)
What is that I hear ????
Sounds like the algorithms are breaking.

Watch out the derivatives are snapping!!!!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 11:44 - ID#225127)
gold wins
The CB's & IMF ( current world power brokers ) have set the stage for the rejection of paper and a return of gold as the worlds only true medium of exchange in the goods trade

(Fri Jan 09 1998 11:47 - ID#318321)
Looks like the crash protection team tried to do their thing at mid morning and failed. Dow down 130.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 11:49 - ID#22956)
Some things should be answered..........others should be left alone.......
I will reprint this because I think it needs to be. This can also apply to some others here......ya know who you are.

Date: Fri Jan 09 1998 10:49

Karlito99__A ( Hey Spud, get a grip man ) ID#78116:

Instead of personally attacking me and my motives, try something new. How about

addressing the issues I raise, like the decline in Asian demand or the desire of cbs to

reduce their gold reserves.

Maybe if you spent some time looking at the fundamentals of the gold market and

made your investment decisions based on reason and not emotion, you might have

ended up on the right side of the market these last 15 years.

If the fundamentals for gold ever turn around, and eventually they will, I will be a buyer,

but until then, the price of gold still has a way to go before we hit bottom.

eh Spuds???????

Don't listen to him LGB...he is probably a dope smoker too.....and now we are on the subject, you have said ( during your great silver prediction speach ) that silver will reach $12.00/oz but recently you say that you will sell at 7 or 8.00/oz. ( we won't see that anytime soon ) . What are we 'lemmings' to do? Can I rely on you for some consistency?

Date: Fri Jan 09 1998 10:51

Karlito99__A ( Hey LGB ) ID#78116:

What happened to your bull market in silver?

Spuds, you should answer Karlito99's questions. This is a forum for investing and market analysis. I would much rather read your thoughts on CB selling, etc. than your attacks on the 'paper-hangers' ( mind you, wealthier because of it paper hangers ) .....btw some of those mutual funds you take shots at gained over 1000% in ONLY TEN YEARS. for a ( small ) 10g 'investment' wouldn't the return be over 100,000g's? Hmmmmmmmm..... I guess now I know where the bitterness comes from. BUY GOLD NOW!

To gold....How can the events during the last week be seen as a buying opp. The trend is still down. There was a momentary 'spark', however, it was more short covering than strong buying, imo. I think that EVERYBODY ( not at kitco but the eastern world and beyond ) knows that gold will continue it's spiral and they are sidelined to wait and buy at basement prices.....or the more logical scenario ( coming from my friend Karlito ) is that gold cannot be afforded right now. People are more concerned with meat and spuds for their families ( keeping their heads above water, so to speak ) .

The 280 ( violated ) line of support was VERY important and it is seen as BAD news for gold in near term. JohnD has recently mentioned that we are in '79 numbers now and the next major support line is at 200. hmmmmmmm....HOW LOW CAN WE GO????????????? Well, I just got alot more bearish ( and a wink wealthier ) yesterday........and Silver has seen the top......for now. I will sell the rallies.

Now to some serious stuff ( unrelated to Haggis or international events, AYE ) .............who will win the football games this weekend. I am LOVING the Packers. GO PACKERS!!!!!!!!! And what of the Denver matchup? meet certain rathy statements from my loving amigo Spuds

skinofarmor go man! Show me the lumber!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 11:50 - ID#57232)
The CB bankers's bank - the BIS - uses a true gold standard
SDRer: Thanks for reminding everyone that there is one bank in the world that still uses a true gold standard --, defined in so many ounces of gold per Franc currency -- the BIS in Basel, Switzerland. The BIS is the central bankers bank, as well as the reference location for a variety of international meetings regarding how central banks should be run.

Why is it the average citizen of the average country cannot put their assets in such a bank, but the Central Banks can? Why is it that gold is a "worthless" asset unless you are the BIS. And this is for Karlito and LGB -- do you think the BIS is worried about their balance sheet, since the price of gold is plummeting in terms of US dollars? Why don't they just sell their gold, and buy the strongest currency in the world, before they go bankrupt?

If I were the director of the BIS, I would be quietly exchanging all of my leftover US dollars in the vault back into gold bullion. The Chinese, the Japanese, the SE Asians, the Arabs, etc. are well aware of what is happeding, but the average American doesn't have a clue! These bargain prices in gold can't last much longer. What makes me mad is that we ( not just Americans ) were hoodwinked into thinking gold was worthless during 1961-1967, and 1975-1977 in exactly the same manner as fall 1996 - spring 1998. Most of us learned nothing from the recent

history of gold and inflatable paper/electronic money!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 11:54 - ID#280245)
A.Goose@Listening.Post Snap, crackle, POP!

Carl@Agreement.of.minds I learned it from you! ( :- )

Vronksy@What.I.Meant was...I thought Moslems were prohibited by their religious convictions, from accepting interest; but, perhaps would
not have a problem with the principal only strip of a bond? No?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 11:54 - ID#22956)
Crystal Ball - Thanks for the reminder. I have to go to the terlet.....fer a good coil ;-! ) more scatology

ug23 :-0

(Fri Jan 09 1998 11:59 - ID#285233)
LGB - Welcome to the PM investing!! You are now one of us! Congrats on your silver move, how brilliant!!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:06 - ID#348129)
@GLOBAL Financial Crisis Around The Corner?
Secret meetings in the US, Clinton personally calling Suharto, Asian crisis at breaking point, IMF advancing more funds, Asian leaders
appear to be overwhelmed...........
This thing is getting very very very serious.
The USD appears to be the only currency holding, propped up by the treasury market.
I am getting closer to believing the Puetz numbers will be realized.
The world boom led by the US markets appears to be coming to an
( ugly ) end.
Don't know why Gold is not responding, but where else will money go if
confidence is lost in the US markets???
This may be it folks.......

Friday January 9, 11:34 am Eastern Time

Report-U.S./Japan intervention talk wrong -source

NEW YORK, Jan 9 ( Reuters ) - A report issued late Thursday by a Washington-based consulting firm said talk of concerted U.S.-Japanese intervention to prop up the yen was inaccurate, said a market source familiar with the report.

The source said the consulting firm, Johnson Smick International Inc, reported that it spoke with informed sources close to U.S.-Japan discussions and concluded that ``any notion of a yen-dollar deal appears way off the mark.''

Japan's ``Mr. Yen'', Eisuke Sakakibara, is visiting Washington and New York this week.

Sakakibara, Japan's Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, met with Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and Treasury officials on Wednesday.

Sakakibara entered the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at about 0900 EST/1400 GMT on Friday for a meeting with its President William McDonough, but made no comment to reporters.

The Johnson-Smick report said U.S. Treasury officials expressed ``little interest'' in the provisions of Japan's previously announced 30 trillion yen financial stability and bank bailout package, the source added.

The report was issued only to paying subscribers.

Per its policy, Johnson-Smick declined any comment.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:08 - ID#57232)
National Bureau of Standards -- where the
Carl,SDRer,Tolerant1, all: This brings up an interesting point. All currencies in the world should be defined by a standard of some kind, or we will have another mess in a generation or two just like the one we are in now!

There are critics who say that there is no way a scarce substance like gold can be used to set up a currency "gold standard" -- please forgive the pun -- because "there is not enough gold to go around" - but the point remains that one can always do this at any time, and then define the rules by which the value of that currency can fluctuate.

The real problem with our electronic money is to determine how we can maintain an uncorruptible link to a gold standard. What I am saying is that it is not enough to say that we will go to a currency backed by gold -- it must be linked to gold in some way with a set of rules of some kind -- and those rules must be unalterable ( uncorruptable ) . No research or testing laboratory can operate without gold standards. Our currencies -- which are the lifeblood of our economy which allows us to have laboratories, ( as well as food and shelter, among other things ) -- should have a gold standard as well!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:09 - ID#225127)
just a little more time
It takes time for the confluence of events from July to now and the future consequences to turn the lights on in the heads of the 5 billion people digging in the trenches 8 to 16 hours a day.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:10 - ID#348129)

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:10 - ID#31868)
I stand ( well actually sitting ) corrected. Details, details. Thank you.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:14 - ID#333447)
Ridgerunner re charts, your's @ 8:57
Have had good experience with Larry Williams method. The spike is a
special signal. If you're not familar with his method, I'll put it to you. It's simple.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:22 - ID#333447)
Anyone re comex daily trades
I'm having trouble with the Feb contract data, gcg8. The volume is the same from about 10 am till 8 pm. the other figures change from 4 pm to 8 pm. Anyone have some answers??

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:24 - ID#93232)
I wonder what portion of the earnings of many industrials can be tied to the expanding use of consumer credit card debt and its resultant revenues to these companies. This alarming debt growth must plateau at some point in the near future...if not already. This source of earnings growth is synthetic demand that can not be sustained.

I live in a state where "the good times" have not arrived. Although this is an obvious generalisation, people here have been forced to live within their means for quite some time now. Real wages have gone down here. Conventional debt is and has been difficult to come by here.

I do the grocery shopping for my family, along with many duties associated with acquiring consumables, and I can report with absolute accuracy that my fellow citizens are paying for everything they buy with credit cards...more each day. This demand for consumables will dry up as people lose this form of credit...and so will the earnings of the respective suppliers.

It is also interesting to note, that in this "static-growth" micro economy personal bankruptcies have risen 22% in the last 18 months. The asian flu is one thing...Credit Card Cancer is quite another. Say good-bye to consumable manufacturers' earnings.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:26 - ID#333131)
On Standards: Only the currencies of one or more of the major economies need be backed by gold. The rest can float as "commodities" if they wish. Actually I don't think it would take all that much gold if we keep in mind, as Donald points out, that only cash needs gold backing.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:26 - ID#372262)
Hate to admit it but Golden Cheesehead had this Asian crisis pegged correctly way back in September/October of '97! The crisis will not, indeed cannot end until every currency in Asia has been completely renounced and a new gold-backed currency formulated! The dollar is only strong now because it appears to be the least of a whole host of evils! Once the inflationary implications of bailing out the entire third world emerging market economies is revealed we will have an explosion in gold prices that will take your breath away! Psychology right now is just beginning to shift away from equity mania to bond mania. Next stop? GOLD MANIA! Cheasehead also warned about gold mining equities and sure enough almost the entire xau and hui has been placed on credit watch with negative implications by Standard and Poor's. Who of these companies will be able to keep their mines open at $280, $250 or $200 gold for very long? Look for major players to come into this nightmare market in a BIG WAY soon and secure as much metal in the ground as thgey can get their grubby little hands on so they can control the price of gold by limiiting new mine supply at the very time central banks will be looking to garner more gold to back their failed policies and failing currencies! Way to go Cheesehead! Wish I had followed your advice BEFORE this mess began to snowball! Unfortunately your call of $444 gold by Super Bowl Sunday appears at this point to be unattainable. By the way, where have ya' been? Haven't heard from you for weeks despite the fact the Packers are only two games away from a repeat?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:31 - ID#256201)
Apologies to tortfeasor for doin' this!
Barry Switzer, clearly upset about the Dallas Cowboys' losing record, decides to find out from Steve
Mariucci what his secret is. So, Switzer travels up to a 49er practice and asks Mariucci, "Coach,
how is it that your team is so good? What's your secret?"

Mariucci responds by calling Steve Young over. "Steve, who's your father's brother's nephew?"
Young answers, "Why coach, that's easy. It's me."

Mariucci turns to Switzer and says, "That's the secret, Barry. A smart quarterback. You've got to
have a smart quarterback."

Thinking he's finally got all the tools he needs, Switzer returns to Texas and the Cowboys workout.
He promptly calls over Troy Aikman. "Aikman! Who's your father's brother's nephew?" Switzer
asks. Troy looks perplexed, thinks a minute and says, "Coach, can I get back to you after practice on
that one?" Switzer ( disgusted ) says, "OK."

During practice, Aikman calls over Deion Sanders. "Deion, coach just asked me the weirdest
question. Who's your father's brother's nephew?" Sanders replied, "Duh! That's easy. It's me!"

After practice, Aikman catches up with Switzer. "Coach, I think I've got it. My father's brother's
nephew is Deion Sanders."

Switzer ( angry ) reprimands, "No, No, NO! You idiot!! It's Steve Young!!!"

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:33 - ID#189273)
credit cards
Studio.R, this is a serious problem. More and more people here, where
times are good and unemployment is low, are maxxed out on their cards
and broke. Using the card to get gas in the car and food into the kids.
Some are formerly middle management people who couldn't find comparable
jobs earlier in the 90's. They hang on, in lower paying jobs, but can't
get their heads above water. They had the large credit lines and used
them. Now there are many right on the edge, apparently fine. But their
car is on a lease or loan, their bank accounts are empty, and they keep
up appearances with the card.

I fear the events of the next year will be a disaster for many.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:36 - ID#189273)
Time to lighten up for a minute.

Hope I typed this right.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:37 - ID#57232)
Gold Standards
Carl: I agree with your comments in principle, if the other currencies use a currency "basket" using the currencies that are on the gold standard. Where your suggestion complicates things is that each currency must be allowed to "float" so some degree around a refence point, so that currencies based on other currencies may not have the degree of control than if they were directly linked to gold.

Given the painful crisis we are experiencing in SE Asia, we see what havoc can be created when those currencies are linked to the US dollar and not directly to a fixed reference such as gold. If the SE Asian currencies had not been linked to the dollar, we might not have had the financial disaster we are experiencing now.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:37 - ID#20137)
Is it just me, or isn't the kitco pm indicator stuck again. Bart please fix it, I am tired of looking at 10:57 gold at 279.05 -1.95

gc8g is at 280.30.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:42 - ID#246224)
A problem of Sovereign Debt and Fiat Currencies ..
US$20 liberty coin now 'worth' $440. This says it all; 2200% cumulative inflation. ( Was mentioned by another Kitconian early today or late yesterday. ) Currently long term ( past ) inflation in the USA is 4.5% per annum. Current rate of 30 Year US Bond 5.75% ( ? ) . Real interest return of 1.25%.

This 1.25% real return without considering FOREX risk of outside interests using such bonds as a 'safe' haven.

And what risk does this ADD or MULTIPLY to the USA financial picture if there is ever a STAMPEDE out of US Bonds at any time??? ( Happened in 1987, didn't it? With resulting cascade of liquidity problems culminating in 1990's S&L fiasco. )

Karlito_99 states this is ".. the worst financial disaster since WWII ..". Well, a least I can agree with you there, Karl. Look back a bit further and I think you will see startling similarities to 1927-30 ( International liquidity crises and rolling devaluations/market "corrections" ) .

The problem with sovereign debt is that no nation has proven "good for the money" in the long haul. The extreme example is debt default, which everyone avoids like the plague. But devaluations and inflation ( whether slow or fast makes no difference ) do no less damage to investments than the extremes do ( just makes people more comfortable with the slow cooking process ) .

The problem, IMHO, with Sovereign debt is that a nation would need to engineer repayment though very long term budget surpluses. To be honest I can't see that happening with a debt load of US$ 5.5 Trillion. GDP is relative to the worth of the currency. If GDP rises by 4% ( in the USA this would be considered a very good year indeed and possibly problematic if sustained in the long term ) then we are still slipping 0.5% into the red annually ( in real terms against the worth of the US$ ) because the long term historical inflation rate has been 4.5%. We must also consider the increase in the work pool ( averaging 1 to 2% per year ) . In this situation a 'very good year' ends up seeing a slippage of 1.5 to 2.5% in GDP per worker. Hence we have seen a net decline in the country's ability to increase the standard of living ( which has been falling in real terms since 1973, I beleive ) .

One individual earning $10,000 per year could provide for a very comfortable lifestyle for an entire family ( larger than present family ) , whereas now 2 wage earners can barely maintain that same standard of living in today's dollars ( and actually has slipped behind that one wage in terms of standard of living ) .

The USA would need to sustain a GDP growth rate of 6+% per annum and pay off its US$5.5 Tln debt over a 30 year period ( sustained US budget surpluses ) in order to reagin its strength and vitality. ( Given an annualized 4.5% inflation, 1.5% work force increase ) . Compare this to a slow spiral into a second-world standard of living caused by a ballooning sustained inflation rate and continued budget deficits.

Its a great country. I hate to see it suffer from its own unwise choices. But there is no repealing of the basic laws of wealth accumulation or disipation. If we continue on our present course we will ruin ourselves as we have thus far. Alex De Toquaville ( sp?, sorry Alex ) was quite right when he pointed out that due to its relative geographic isolation and natural resources America would never be defeated by an external enemy, but only could be destroyed by internal problems. Our proud, haughty attitudes are the source of our own decimation and will continue to strip us any chance at a better future.

Remember, US$20 gold coin is now "worth" US$440.

A nation whose currency does not maintain its value over time is, at heart, bankrupt of faithfulness. Bankrucy of its currency is only a conclusion of its moral poverty.

A 'great' nation will always be characterized by honesty; a stable currency which never deviates from describing is government's commitment to absolutes. Its citizens practise thrift and industry and so increase their prosperity by savings which do not waste away by continuous, insipid devaluation in the medium of its currency.

Protracted budget deficits, business and personal debt are a symptoms of a moral fever which started many years ago. Each 'solution' which does not touch the real problem will only add to this very real problem. One day we will see the result of this fever of relativism. Unfortunately it will not be a pretty sight.

Lurker 777
(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:44 - ID#317247)
$280 will hold
Once again I will single handily support spot gold above $280. for the close of N.Y. trading. Running low on dry powder but just recieved a new special offer from Visa card for $10,000 at 9.9% interest. Hmmmm

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:45 - ID#288399)
Credit Card
Just because you see someone paying for gas or food with a credit card doesn't mean they are in debt. Our family uses one constantly to get airline miles but we carry no monthly balance. The real scary thing to me is the home equity loans that you DONT SEE. So many people in the US have mortgage their houses with the following logic: "Since I can get 25% a year in the mutual fund and my home equity 12% loan is tax deductible, I'm actually gaining each year". Really scary when deflation hits initially. Later, if we get hyperinflation, the debtors will turn out to be right if the paper system holds together. ( I don't think paper will hold, but what do I know as a stay-at-home housewife? )

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:47 - ID#254269)
test paste

d all about it, a simple lesson in econom / Thanks Donald, it didn't
quite work but will try again

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:48 - ID#280245)
Folks, there are a LOT more bugs heading for the windshield...
Emerging markets
Hedging Exotic Currencies
By David Wilson, November 1997
Greenwich Treasury Advisors

..., non-deliverable hedging instruments might be worth thinking about for Latin American positions. Non-delivery forward exchange rate contracts and options ( NDFs ) have proven themselves to be excellent tools. They can be used to hedge:
 currency risk in countries where regulations do not permit normal
hedging instruments,
 where the risk of rule changes might impede timely settlement ( as
happened in Mexico in the mid-1980s ) , or
 hedge event risks ( e.g., with out-of-the-money non-delivery options ) such as a 1994 Mexico-style devaluation.

Many companies also use them to create synthetic local currency loans for group subsidiaries. With the current turmoil in Asian Tiger currencies, this is a good opportunity to review the use of NDFs and their peculiarities.
NDF differences
Recall that an NDF differs from a standard forward foreign exchange
contract in that physical delivery of currency is not contemplated. instead, the notional value of the contract is marked to market based on a pre-set formula and one party makes a net payment to the other. If the NDF is structured as an option, and the option expires in the money, the writer pays the intrinsic value of the option to the purchaser.

Repricing the NDF at maturity. Hence, the key feature of an NDF is the predetermined method or formula upon which it is marked to market at
maturity. Generally, valuing the NDF involves using a third-party source
that neither party can manipulate to its advantage. Methods include a rate posted on a particular Reuters page, an average of interbank quotes
obtained at essentially the same time, a central bank rate, or the local
currency value of some dollar denominated instrument among others.The
trade confirmation agreement will normally specify several methods. If
method one is not available on the maturity date, the parties agree to a
second method, etc. The important thing to consider is that each counterparty understands how each method, or rate, is determined before agreeing to use it.

Please note that in November, Mr. Wilson was advising it was too late
to 'do' a NDF for Asia, but might be worth thinking about for South America! Also notice how the "pricing" mechanism is tied to some "DOLLAR DENOMINATED INSTRUMENT. I found that revealing!

JTF@Thinking.of.ways I think your thoughtful remarks on thinking
through our present 'mess' to positive avenues to prevent a repeat, are excellent! And I think there are more than a few folks on this board
who would be willing to work toward such a goal. It is never too soon
to start, right?

Tolerant1@Brigade.Command Ready to saddle up? ( speaking metaphorically
of course! )

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:49 - ID#401460)
Employment Rate
'Last time the employment rate was this low was 19973", remember 1973? Fed would have raised rates if Asia was not a factor, this could just increase the possibility of a weird situation of deflation in Asia and inflation in the US. Asian goods have always been cheap compared to US products. We now have cheap fuel and, therefore cheaper shipping and transportation cost will these factors along with other cost/price reductions stimulate our economy or depress it?

Later, I have to get into the office and see if I can hold it together.


Richard Burke
(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:50 - ID#411318)
Clarity Resources
Pleasant suprise this AM at Gold-Eagle site - advert. by Clarity ( it is at bottom of Main page. Mike Sheller a director of Arden interviews Arden Larson the Chief Geologist. Familiar names. Good reading.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:56 - ID#254269)
test paste ' ; From Australian Financial Review Saturday
Re Indonesia

hope I get it right this time.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 12:56 - ID#93232)
Credit card companies yearly extract billions of interest income from people unlike you. I agree re: "equity loans"....what are these called when there is no equity? Ans: non-performing

(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:00 - ID#288399)
Credit Card
Just because you see someone paying for gas or food with a credit card doesn't mean they are in debt. Our family uses one constantly to get airline miles but we carry no monthly balance. The real scary thing to me is the home equity loans that you DONT SEE. So many people in the US have mortgage their houses with the following logic: "Since I can get 25% a year in the mutual fund and my home equity 12% loan is tax deductible, I'm actually gaining each year". Really scary when deflation hits initially. Later, if we get hyperinflation, the debtors will turn out to be right if the paper system holds together. ( I don't think paper will hold, but what do I know as a stay-at-home housewife? )

(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:02 - ID#254269)
Tragedy ahead; I think I may have got this "pasting" figured out.

@ Donald and Panda; thanks for your instructions re how to do this.
@ All; please be patient with me until I feel more comfortable with how to do this. Thanks. I was afraid I would destroy all the computers in the western world doing that !

(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:03 - ID#328159)
London Gold, Oil, & internat. Equity Charts & Indicators
Site with charts including several interesting indicators plotted ~daily:
Daily Report ( Mon - Thur nights ) Weekly Report ( Sunday ) Higher Shares
( JSE ) Lower Shares ( JSE ) Gold Analysis Todays' Moves ( JSE Indices ) Main
Indices Analysis ( JSE ) Highest Capitalised Shares ( Top 50 ) The JSE's
Most Tradeable Shares Daily SA Share Recommendations Futures Analysis

Pre-Analyzed Charts for the FTSE-100, London Gold and Brent Crude Oil
Pre-Analyzed Charts for the Nikkei, Dax and CAC-40
Pre-Analyzed Charts for the All-Ordinaries and the Hang Seng
Pre-Analyzed Charts for the Dow, Nasdaq and the SP500
Currency Section 1, Currency Section 2, Currency Section 3

STUDIO.R - 08:20- Thanks! : )

(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:04 - ID#26793)
Fresh London gold news

(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:07 - ID#372262)

How many more 125 point down days can we endure before the DOW finally finds its real fair value at 4000? Answer? 30! And what if the decline were to accelerate by a factor of 2 or 3 or 4? Well, you get the picture! SELL ALL STOCKS NOW AND GO TO CASH UNTIL THE BIG BOYS START BUYIN' ALL UP ALL THE FAILED GOLD MINING COMPANIES. THEN BUY GOLD! My goal for the DOW by the end of Q1 is 4000 despite the fact that Denver will get its but kicked in the Super Bowl!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:09 - ID#254269)
Korean Gold flows in ;
This one from a New Zealand newspaper;

(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:14 - ID#254269)
Wall Street Getting Slammed

here's another one

(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:18 - ID#22956)
Lurker 777.....and whoever......
You have been mostly wrong in your gold 'predictions'. And now you say 280 will hold when it has already been BROKEN......... ( Eric scratching his head ) ........what gives?? What makes you think that this is the NEW low......and when the selling continues and we approach 270 will that be the new low?? I think I get it. You are predicting the new low for each week, right?

Let's all get bullish now and spend some of that endless dry powder we ALWAYS talk about. I think this dry powder thing is bullsh!t. I think that credit cards are being used to 'create' more dry can there be ANY dry powder after the 'powdering' from 340 to 279 alone.....not to mention the 'powdering' from 400+ to 279.......... ( poof ) .........goes the dry powder...........

I have a new t-shirt for sale ( no offense Mike, poking fun now ) . It says:

GET REAL! BUY GOLD! and on the back it says: LATER! and it's made from 100% Cotton and it SHRINKS one hell of alot. I would recommend buying the XXXXXXXXlarge...... ( ugh ) ... pick some bottoms elsewhere


I can see clearly now the rain is gone

I can see ALL the obstacles in my way

Gone are the dark clouds that had me blind

It gonna be a bad, bad gold day ( s )

(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:20 - ID#373403)
Gold Fundamentals
Karlito, I am glad you brought this up. I was thinking this morning about the current level of gold relative to mining costs. This analysis is purely from an economists supply and demand point of view.

I will make the simplifying assumption that central bank holdings, sales, and purchases of gold are market externalities. They are not of long term consequence to the market.

I will explain why this is a valid assumption later but for now let us say that supply consists of mined and recycled metal. Demand is physical use of the metal for jewelry, industrial, and investment purposes.

Using these parameters, the equilibrium price of gold is about $315/oz, the producer cost per ounce, plus a premium to induce companies to make the effort. Below this price, we see that producers decide to close the mines instead of losing money.

We now find ourselves below eqilibrium at $280/oz. How can this be? Central bank externalities have introduced a higher supply on the market, we all know this. Initially there is oversupply which pushes the price below equilibrium but as these mines close, the supply shifts from producer to divesting central banks. Since there was already a supply shortage before this divestiture, the central banks must supply BOTH the mining production PLUS the previous shortfall ( equalling demand ) in order for prices to stableize at equilibrium of $315. For prices to stableize below equilibrium the central banks must supply demand PLUS a steady oversupply. But prices are not stableizing are they.

They are going down. This leads to two conclusions. Either the central banks are supplying at demand PLUS ever INCREASING levels of oversupply which would not be sustainable because they are market externalities or because the demand has become inelastic. Being externalities, they cannot keep up a pace of ever increasing supply because their supply is finite, they must make up an increasing mining shortfall, and all central banks are not divesting. Not all central banks are divesting because not everyone shares the view that non-performing hard assets have no place in a modern central banks portfolio and because selling national assets at ever dropping prices will have a political cost.

The second option of why gold is staying below equilibrium and dropping is that the demand ( jewelry plus industrial plus phsical investment ) is not willing to buy this oversupply. As prices drop jewelers and industrial users initially forward buy at bargain prices but this is a one time happening which has already occurred. Investors who buy the gold knowing it is a bargain to someday unload at a profit at or above equilibrium must get greater and greater percieved compensation to sop up a constant oversupply. Again this is not sustainable as the central banks supplies are finite and it is foolish to keep selling into an inelastic demand.

Equilibrium will be overshot by a large margin when central banks stop selling, especially if some analysts like Veneroso ( sp? ) are correct about it being sudden due to a freezing of European Union member reserves. Since mines are closed and reopening them will lag initial shortages due to startup costs and skepticism there will be a severe undersupply.

The question as always is when and not if. This is a far better position than the equities market where the question of if the markets will go up needs to be answered. In my opinion, for the reason previously given that the high price/earnings ratios were justified due to higher future earnings expectations, the now revised downward earnings suggests a market over equilibrium.


(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:20 - ID#189273)
You are right about the home equity loans being used to enter the stock market. This is absurd to the extreme. However, I have personal knowledge of these former high flyers caught in the credit card squeeze. I have advised several trying to avoid bankruptcy. In the attempt to appear prosperous, believing that things would turn around, they've dug incredible financial holes. Counting their home mortgages, car loans, and credit cards, they are in debt several times their annual income and living from paycheck to paycheck.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:23 - ID#320441)
A yen for combat
So it is basically the dollar versus gold - and the dollar is winning big time.

Well, hey, why not? The dollar is lighter, easier to store, accepted at more places than American Express. Convenience.

We need a way to make gold convenient - say, a credit card backed by gold. Get merchants to set prices in gold weight equivalent. Want a suit? That'll be 1000 yellows ( slang for 1/1000 of an ounce of pure gold ) . Put it on the "gold" card.

A truly stable currency. The supply is fairly constant. The true supply is not at the whim of the policy of some government, that is, it cannot be created. ( Of course, it can still be hoarded. )

How insane, a currency that can be printed at will by a government.

How utterly insane.

The age of fiat currency is inherently an age of anxiety.

How long can this continue??

(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:23 - ID#22956)
I think Denver players will be playing golf on Monday. The only way they will see the Stupor Bowl is from the grandstands. steeltown


(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:30 - ID#93232)
@EB>>>name that tune.....
Randy Neuman ( sp ) ....short! I just didn't listen very well. SHORT THE WORLD!

Lurker 777
(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:34 - ID#317247)
One hour left
E.B. my friend, On Dec. 29th at 21:35 I predicted a retest of the $280 level within a couple of weeks. I have bought all my Physcal gold when spot was under $284.00. We have not closed below $280 and I believe we will close above $280 today. We will see $290 before we see $270. spot N.Y. close.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:39 - ID#194311)
When the hunter becomes the hunted....tick tock tick tock
Asian governments lambast their banks for speculating against national currencies but greed holds no loyalties....the day will come, perhaps this year when the most vicious of the greedy hunters ( US, & European merchant banks ) see money to be made in SHORTing the DOLLAR.

When the hunter becomes the hunted gold will have it's day in the sun. Then the Asian merchant banks will avenge their guilt and the US dollar will be hung out to dry like the soggy toilet paper it is.

SDRer; I'm glad you have kept up the thread on a fixed unit of account for the bean counters. It is not really the paper game that is at fault for the mess before us but rather it's fundamental flaw to be not tied to a fixed unit of measure. Such a simple truth can be seen in the books of the's not how much paper per ounce but how many ounces.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:41 - ID#339274)
FWIW... Price action gives a buy signal for ABX ,will have to be
confirmed to make 65 first possibly at the last hour.

Spud Master
(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:47 - ID#273112)
@EB - proponent of 'Motie' civilization
Thank you EB, I take it as a personal complement that my postings have rattled you & your masters ( grin ) . Don't you have a wink to play with?

The winking will help divert your attention from the living Hell your paper-pusher wanna-be masters of us all have created in South East Asia - a panorama of ruined lives, lost jobs, hunger and misery - all in the name of unlimited greed for power & control.

You had no trouble taking credit heretofore for the "best of all possible worlds" created with this criminal fake paper-money, based on human servitude & slavery.

Are you man enough to take a share of the credit for this misery now, EB? Could it be that there is something wrong with you and your financial godlets elaborate plans? I suggest you listen The Doors song - "This is the End" while you sip on your Wild Turkey and watch the Dow ticker-tape.

Or have we few gold-bugs caused it? Gotta blame someone, EB. Or .. does paper currency 'happen'?

Gold as money = freedom.

Paper as money = slavery, exploitation, economic collapse.

I urge the nations of South East Asia to abandon the US dollar and base your currencies on GOLD. Throw off the paper-shackles of the sleek, power-hungry dogs in three-piece suits in Wall Street, the Federal Reserve! Be a soverign people, not a slave people at the bidding of Central Bankers!

Oh, and one more thing, EB: "Are you an aristocrat?"

(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:52 - ID#287207)
Gold's cost
themissinglink: I am alway interested in the production cost of an oz of gold. Where did you get the 315 figure from?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:52 - ID#57232)
Like your 13:39
kiwi: Like your comment about the hunter ( the currency establishment ) about to get hunted. The same hedge funds that tipped the scales in SEAsia will eventually turn on the US dollar! Can't really place the blame on the hedge funds, and they only seek out long-term inequities that are finally reaching the breaking point. The hedge funds just add that little nudge to start the avalanche.

The silver corner is the beginning of this process -- and a good one to choose, because silver does not get the attention of gold as a marker of the dollar's weakness.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:55 - ID#194311)
DOW freefalling
Another trade stopping day?

Early Riser
(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:56 - ID#228275)
Some of the discussion here raises this question---Is anyone in SE Asia now saying to themselves "woulda, coulda, shoulda had a gold backed currency"?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 13:59 - ID#373403)
LGB and Karlito
Is the stock market still crashing upward? : ) Anyone wanna bet gold sees $308/oz before DJIA sees 8,410? Thats 10% upward. Just a gentlemens bet as my money is all tied up in little granules of .9999.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:00 - ID#93232)
@War is Red Hell.....from the former Sea Of Tranquility.....PT 1/09er....

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:01 - ID#28593)
IMHO The first segment of the population whose belief in paper currency will
vaporize it the business community.
Davos will host 1000 CEOs, 250 government leaders, 250 media people, etc. So,at Davos, business will represent the largest and-- some might
argue--most powerful segment, of the Power Elite.

Business people like to attend their businesses, which is challenge enough. They are going to be very unhappy about hidden losses incurred through instruments which were supposed to protect.
They are going to DEMAND a global reserve currency tied to some standard of measurement that obviates the necessity of derivatives.
What say you?


(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:04 - ID#225127)
Because of the tremendous strain on the local Garbage Company, I have volunteered to follow them and pick up all the worthless discarded gold and put it in by dump.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:10 - ID#364147)
EB......-------go BRONCOS------go NINERS(the pak suks)
Just got 'in' and looks like we're having a slight down-draft in the DOW ( hmmmmmmm ) ---those 8"x10"'s etc.etc. are lookin a lot more tangible than them stock certificates I sold recently ( 'tootin me horn---another ) ---EB:Get a life!!---dump the Lakers ( Go Nics ) ...oh yeah,go gold~~~~~~~~~~~

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:11 - ID#93232)
DJIA dn. 175
She's almost half-way there boys.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:12 - ID#225127)
stk. mkt.
Will the most powerful dynamic duo in the world, AG & RR, be able to lead the dipsters to the last dip party?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:12 - ID#194311)
Deflationary indicators....
Unsold inventories of cheap goods piling up;primary manufacturers laying off

US Wholesale Inventories Up
The Commerce Department says inventories of unsold goods at
the wholesale level rose slightly in November, while sales
continued their decline. The department says total wholesale
inventories rose 0.9 percent in November, a gain of 5.9 percent
from November 1996. Inventories were unchanged in October. The
build-up included both costly and long-lasting durable goods
like furniture, metals, hardware and machinery, and also more
quickly used non-durables like drugs, groceries and farm
products. Total sales fell 0.7 percent in November.

Owens Corning to Cut 2,200 Jobs
Glass fiber and building materials manufacturer Owens
Corning says it will chop 2,200 jobs, or nine percent of its
work force, in a restructuring. Toledo, Ohio-based Owens cited
pricing pressures in building insulation materials and a
shortfall in fourth-quarter earnings. The company says it plans
to take $250 million in charges to reduce overhead, close
plants, and pay severance costs for the 2,200 people it plans to
lay off. Owens says it will close its fiberglass insulation
plant in Candiac, Canada, and scale down composites operations
in Belgium, and a pipe plant in Norway.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:13 - ID#364147)
Watchin CNBC ticker with fun

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:14 - ID#246224)
Would that the gold market were plain as your analysis might suggest. Consider all the leasing activity ( for various reasons ) ; all the forward sales activity ( for various reasons ) ; all the futures/hedging ( for various reasons ) . The market is not at all transparent. Most gold is traded off market a la LBMA and BIS. Most traded gold is not gold at all but is paper gold.

Most people would argue that corn is an important commodity and would yeild to a typical supply/demand study. The corn market is a pure commodities market because it is not a strategic/reserve material. It has no place as a 'reserve to the banking system'and no history as money. CB's hold no massive piles of corn ( though it is yellow ) . The very fact that CB's hold a very large position in gold ( 25% above ground material ) suggests that gold is different. It is not a true commodity. This complicates analysis of its market behavior.

The 'London Gold Pool' of the 1960's has been mentioned here a few times recently. The international efforts of CB's to keep gold prices down in relationship to currencies in th 1973-5 period comes to mind. These are very recent examples of governmental efforts to control markets for reasons that have nothing to do with supply and demand. In fact they were trying to control the POG to stave off currency crises and the appearance of inflation.

I have no clue as to how these 'governmental market forces' might be added to your thoughts on traditional supply and demand in the market. Factually most CB's are not selling their gold. The Argentina sale was probably out of desperation since their finances are very poorly managed. They are a true basket case. Australia probably hedged their sale with a forward option with their own mining companies. I recently read that small European CB's like the Belgians sold alot of gold because of a redistribution contract which would return more gold to them if they had less at the time of settlement then when they went into the contract ( per some EU mish-mash ) .

This governmental component, to me, really clouds the picture. Short to mid-term POG movements are a mystery to me. All the news only a shroud of smoke; a story concocted to rationalize people's day-trading decisions. "Why did you sell yesterday?" "Well we understood that the CB's would sell again so we dumped and went short." "Oh. Well hope we can cover this up move.." "Yeah, me to..". There is some, to me, fairly obvious 'news' which is intended to spook the markets in one direction or another.

The US$20 coin for US$440 and 16% increase in 1997 over 1996 demand tell a story. Regardless of the price jaggies on a daily, monthly or yearly basis, gold will display its ability to realign itself to inflated paper money in the long run. As someone pointed out the current US$ gold price adjusted for inflation is equivalent to the price in 1973 at about US$72/oz. of that era. Only now it takes US$280 to buy that US$72 gold.

IMVHO, the upward price rise in gold to align with the massive devaluation of the US$ since the 1973 marker will, eventually, 'tell the story' to a new generation. In the mean time we wait.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:15 - ID#373403)
Nothing scientific in $315. I probably picked it up from this forum. It is definately above $300 because that is when the mines started shutting down. Like oil, different mines have different costs. Don't forget that mines do not produce for the challenge of it. They must have profit and return on investment to make the effort worth it.

The only relevent FACTS in my simplified economic analysis is that:

1 ) current prices are below equilibrium as evidenced by mine closures
2 ) central bank overhang is a finite and therefore limited imbalance
3 ) for prices to remain below equilibrium takes ever INCREASING supply if demand is inelastic ( price decreases do not induce higher demand )

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:19 - ID#225127)
CNBC is marching their experts to the front.
Expert definition: Drip under pressure.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:19 - ID#194311)
Wallstreet Windbags Exhaling...ooofffffffffff
and the bubble sinks back to boring old reality

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:26 - ID#286230)
Themissinglink: Right. Last year the estimated average price was 275. I have seen more recent guesses at 317 and I believe Buffett used 317 in a recent article. However when the higher cost mines shut down the average cost decreases so trying to figure out an average when the higher cost are missing gives a clue but the very shutting down of the high cost mines changes the whole picture. If the highest cost mines are shut then the current average price is considerably below where they shut down as far as I can figure. Also producing mines switch to higher grade ore if they have any to reduce the production price when the selling price is low. Not an easy thing to get a current fix on.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:27 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Breton 'Crash Control headquarters'
got 'it' down to -169~~~~~~~~~

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:31 - ID#286230)
I have gold at 278.15 now. Anybody got another figure?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:32 - ID#20137)
Well, it looks like I am going to have to scrap some more paper together and go out and buy some more bullion this weekend.

U.S. and IMF are now BEGGING Indonesia to accept the plan. Probably adding perks for the leaders at least.

The Ulgy American is taking on a whole new meaning ( as far as intensity is concerned ) in Asia.

The attack on the U.S. dollar is close at hand. Soon only the treasury will be the only one buying bonds ( if they aren't already ) .

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:36 - ID#364147)
Selby................and yeah
I gotta differen't figure----Feb.Gold @ 280.10 down 1.70...But then you is probably talkin bout 'spot'...

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:37 - ID#373403)
Yes, those very real complications to my simplified theory make everything less transparent. They represent distortions to the fundamnetals which my analysis sought to clarify. The basics come down to physical. Jewelers and industrial users DEMAND physical. There was a physical SUPPLY imbalance prior to mines shutting down due to below equilibrium pricing. Paper trades to paper. Shut it out. There is a physical demand that will be met with a physical supply. If the central banks through all the different paper machinations are able to satisfy the demand at todays lower prices then so be it but when a major jewelry manufacturer needs gold for production, pieces of paper cannot be cast because they burn up. Paper does not satisfy physical gold demand.

Paper is just a way for more people to be in the gold market than the physical supply and demand would allow for.

The fundamentals are sound. If it was easy, everyone would do it and there would be no money for us to make. Hindsight will leave alot of people saying "wow, if I had bought 50 or 100 ounces two years ago...." while those with foresight will be in the Carribean. Foresight makes money.


(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:38 - ID#286230)
Ted: right spot price.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:38 - ID#246224)
Might add that Armstrong of PEI sees POG @ US$2000 range ..
as a middle of the road ballpark for the 2001 - 3 time frame. He's no minor player in this drama ( US$2 Trillion under advisement ) . AND HE'S A *REAL* ECONOMIST, at least in the eyes of many governments and very wealthy people who take his advise seriously.

So all those who know better than such none-sense please let me know the location of YOUR overseas offices and the size of your influence. TIA. ( Just keeping score ;- )

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:44 - ID#429245)
Central bank consipiracies, etc
Two questions some of you might shed some light on:

1. Even though governments, especially the US government, would prefer to weaken gold as the alternative to their currency, it seems unlikely that they could get enough co-operation over time from all governments to keep a steady pressure on the price of gold. Certainly all governments must recognize the value of gold to save them from the likes of Koreas present problem. Also, many governments resent the US domination of economic matters. So why dont some of them take advantage of the situation to buy up gold that is being sold in an effort to keep the price down?
2. I vaguely knew of it before, but Barts post of the US government proclamation of gold confiscation was fascinating to read. What was the real rational for taking such a dangerous step? Why did they do it? Sealing the safety deposit boxes of all Americans must have been a hard decision to take in that capitalistic society. And when was it reversed, and how was that done?

Also, does anyone know the time of that confiscation post, or better still, can someone re-post it? I want to keep a copy. That should be posted once a week to keep the record clear!

I just bought some Maple Leafs, and put them in a safety deposit box two days ago. But anyway, this is Canada. Nothing like that could happen here, eh?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:45 - ID#194311)
Canadian economy chilling out in Quebec...100 year event.
Freeze continues in Quebec, east Ontario
MONTREAL, Jan. 9 ( UPI ) -- Thousands of people in Quebec and eastern
Ontario are without heating for the fourth straight day, as freezing
rain and high winds continue.
Ice-laden tree limbs crashing down on power lines have left an
estimated 2.5 million people in the area without power.
Repair crews from Hydro Quebec, the provincial power utility, have
been fighting a losing battle overnight to restore power to homes, with
more lines going down as others are repaired.
At least six people without power have died in Quebec and eastern
Ontario since the crisis began, some of them victims of fires which
erupted when chimneys overheated as wood fires were kept burning too
Others have died from carbon monoxide poisoning after lighting up
barbecues inside their homes.
Thousands of people are taking shelter in emergency centers set up in
schools, community centers and even in some municipal halls.
More than 3,000 Canadian troops are assisting the repair crews, or
clearing streets littered with broken tree limbs and other debris
obstructing the work of the repairmen.
Five soldiers were injured, one seriously, when a civilian truck went
out of control on a slippery road and hit a military vehicle.
The utility technicians remain understaffed, and some have been
working round the clock without sleep. About 1,000 power technicians
from the United States have come over the border to help.
Officials say the ice storm that began Tuesday is the worst in the
history of Canada, and in human terms, the crisis is being bill as worse
than the ``flood of the century'' in Manitoba last year.
Environmentalists say freezing rain conditions normally last only a
few hours, and it is unusual for the phenomon to continue for several
days in a stretch.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:46 - ID#286230)
Anybody know how much gold was confiscated by the US Gov during the 30's?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:47 - ID#344308)

BIG sell-off coming in the last hour......

still looking for at least -300 for the dow......

buckle your seat-belts.....

shlomo-------you crafty critter you......been wondering 'who'
you have been lately....welcome back......

chaos and flux are here........any questions?


(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:47 - ID#254269)
@ GW: Gold Confication Letter appears on 1/7/98 at 11.38.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:48 - ID#246224)
Sorry ..
Armstrong @ US$2 BILLION ( not US$2 trillion ) under advisement. Sticky fingers today. I just LOVE big numbers. I was in Turkey in '79. 100 Turkish Lira = US$. Now its 200,000 TL = US$. They also had gold a spot+fabrication pricing on jewelry ( no doubt as a saving vehicle ) . Would have hated to have been a citizen with a 30 year TL bond. Know what I mean??? True wallpaper.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:52 - ID#26793)
Moody's is expecting big Indonesia trouble per this list of downgrade reasons

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:52 - ID#373403)
Your moving average cost of production would be valid if we were in physical supply and demand equilibrium or if physical demand were below physical ( mine ) supply. Then the closing of higher cost mines to match supply with demand would eliminate the higher cost mines from the average.

The reality however is that the higher cost mines being shut down will have to be reopened once central bank physical supply fails to meet physical demand. We know that prior to $315 there was an estimated 900 tonne ( correct me if my memory is wrong on the amount ) physical shortfall which we assume was being met by the central bank divestitures. ( this all according to Veneroso as quoted here )

Therefore, we must still factor in these closed mines into the current average cost of production if we assume that the central bank overhang is finite and temporary.

Again I completely agree that the absolute reality of the situation is not transparent. I am only trying to tie in the "facts" that seem to have broken the surface.


(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:53 - ID#78116)
Excellent questions GW: Answer to #2
I vaguely knew of it before, but Barts post of the US government proclamation of gold confiscation was fascinating to read. What was the real rational for taking such a dangerous step? Why did they do it? Sealing the safety deposit boxes of all Americans must have been a hard decision to take in that capitalistic society. And when was it reversed, and how was that done?

I found the government proclamation on gold to be a chilling bit of history. The reason for doing it was simple. The economy was dead in the water. Many economists were looking for any way to kick start it. The wealth that was being tied up in gold was viewed as a dead weight on the economy. If the government could confiscate the gold and give its holders paper money that they would spend or invest in more productive assets it was hoped that this would provide some simulation to economic growth.

The proclamation was reversed in 1973 after Nixon closed the gold window to the rest of the world and decoupled and hence demonetarized gold.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:57 - ID#429245)
Thanks Avalon. Here it is again, ( co-relate this post to an uptick in the spot. )

Roosevelt's Executive Order, April 5th 1933

"By virtue of the authority vested in me by Section 5 ( B ) of the Act of

October 6, 1917, as amended by Section 2 of the Act of March 9, 1933..., in

which congress declared that a serious emergency exists, I as President, do

declare that the national emergency still exists; that the continued

private hoarding of gold and silver by subjects of the United States poses

a grave threat to the peace, equal justice, and well-being of the United

States; and that appropriate measures must be taken immediately to protect

the interests of our people."

"Therefore, pursuant to the above authority, I hereby proclaim that such

gold and silver holdings are prohibited, and that all such coin, bullion or

other possessions of gold and silver be tendered within fourteen days to

agents of the government of the United States for compensation at the

official price, in the legal tender of the Government. All safe deposit

boxes, in banks or financial institutions have been sealed, pending action

in the due course of the law. All sales or purchases or movements of such

gold within the borders of the United States and its territories, and all

foreign exchange transactions or movements of such metals across the border

are hereby prohibited."

"Your possession of these proscribed metals and/or your maintenance of a

safe-deposit box to store them is known to the government from bank and

insurance records. Therefore, be advised that your vault box must remain

sealed, and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the Internal

Revenue Service."

(Fri Jan 09 1998 14:59 - ID#254269)
That letter should be mandatory reading every day for a goldbug.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:01 - ID#254269)
One hour to go; Dow down 158 points volume 597 million shares.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:03 - ID#78116)
Stock Market Crashes
Just for the record.... Since the first of the year the Dow Jones has dropped 270 points or 3.3%, a steep drop for one week, but hardly a crash by anyone's definition.

Gold on the other hand has dropped $11 bucks, or 3.8%.

The Dow drop comes after three years of relentless double digit gains, an unprecedented three-peat of 20% plus increases. No market goes up forever, trees don't grow to the sky. Why is the correction, which really started back in early August such a great pleasure to you all? You rememind me of bushmen seeing fire for the first time. This will no doubt continue for some time to come with the Dow trading in range from 8000 down to 6500, it does not represent an end to western civilization as we know it. We are still many miles from the good Mr Puetzs unreachable forecast of 2000.

Golds drop, on the other hand, comes after two years of a crushing bear market. You hang on to gold for dear life despite all the evidence of one of the longest most value destroying bear markets in the past 50 years. Give it up.... invest with your heads for a moment and not your hearts and you may have a shot a making some money.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:04 - ID#287207)
themissinglink: I don't put as much importance on the CB sales as is fashionable here and elsewhere. The amount of gold bought by India and the amount used in jewellers annually makes the cb's sales look very small--not to say that they have no effect just that it is marginal and carefully reported. I think the impact of suppliers shutting down is more important than the more interesting conspiracy of bankers.

My view is that gold is going down because --except for users ( eg jewellers ) --nobody really wants the stuff at the moment --and/or yet --and Asians are less likely to buy than 6 months ago--and so are most of us.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:05 - ID#26793)
Western Hemisphere markets at this hour (all are minus percentages)
Brazil 5.58%, TSE 300 3.19%, Chile 2.34%, Mexico 3.82%, Peru 1.67%, Venezuela 4.92%

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:06 - ID#249147)
Confiscate Bonds

What big brother should do now is to confiscate bonds. The asset bubble resulting from overly expansive monetary growth late in the trade cycle is making and going to make people drive bond yields to nothing. Volatility will killl stocks as a public investment as the Excite poll showed yesterday.

What productive use does buying government bonds serve? Well it allows the government to continue to finance the debt burden and keep their show on the road at the home folks expense.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:09 - ID#254269)
The letter; When I read The Letter, the other day, it says in there that
the government knew people had safe deposit boxes because of insurance records. Does anyone know how the government got ahold of insurance records ? I don't see the link..

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:09 - ID#287207)
Karlito99__A: I don't disagree with your line of reasoning but there is another perspective. Gold had already dropped _____ % ( fill it in depending on where you start from ) but the Stock market is still going up or just about going down. There is a lot more to lose with stocks now than there is with gold. Eh?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:11 - ID#234311)
Oops. Don't feel too bad, you only missed your insistent prediction by nearly two dollars. What have you to say now about $280 support?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:14 - ID#344308)

the fed has stepped-in........they are fighting to revive the

the de-fibrillator is smoking from over-load.......LOOK OUT!!
it just shorted-out!! oh sh!t.....the damage done----neil young..theman

look....up in the's a it's a plane.....

no....... it's the smoke-signal-mobile......

en-route to maintain a vigil
over the peopleo.......a new chapter is being will
document the carnage created by the greed of a few, inflicted
on the many........these rapists will have no place to hide....

riches will not protect ANYONE from the mobs of financially
destitute peopleo......ooooooowwwwwwwwww......a cry for the
peopleo.......they just could not know.......for they be. ... the

want to hear tomorrow today? go buy jefferson airplane's first
album after they changed their name to jefferson starship...

'starship'---'blows against the empire'....their
yeah.....'we're gonna see a better day''s-a-coming......
very soon.....the world is fixing to blow against the empire.......
plus----it is their best album........


(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:17 - ID#23782)
To All

My wife has just insisted that we rotate all
of the kids savings into physical GOLD.

She is either a genius or GOLD is gonna tank.
Either way I can't win.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:19 - ID#429245)
letter and Insurance
Avalon: I would guess that it was a bluff. i.e., they were answering the first question that would come into a gold holders mind: How do they know I have any? It would have been almost enough to seal the bank vaults because of course they knew where those are. By refering to insurance they would get the attention of gold holders who had it stored privately, but also had it insured. With or without the government actually having insurance records, some of those would have turned their gold in just by the threat of it.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:19 - ID#344308)


more than enough!....bury the sucker...

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:20 - ID#26793)
Raw material prices sliding

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:21 - ID#329157)
They should have given them short skirts
Samsung Life Insurance staff have been ordered to shout upbeat slogans in the streets of Seoul to help defeat South Korea's financial crisis.

Mo in To
(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:24 - ID#347205)
Lineups to buy gold.....
To All,

An interesting tidbit that I would like to pass along. I just spent over an hour in a lineup at Scotiabank ( Canada ) trying to buy gold bullion, to no avail. As the lines grew longer and more restless, we were all informed that they were out of bullion and had been all week! The natives are growing very, very restless. Interestingly, there were many Asians, Indians as well WHO HAD BEEN THERE EVERY DAY THIS WEEK trying to buy the stuff! Obviously, despite gold falling through the $280 support level today, many investors are losing faith in paper, especially those with relatives in India and Asia. Hmmmmm....

Mo in To

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:24 - ID#261269)
DOW just went through -200....PPT blowing fuzes....


(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:25 - ID#255284)
There's Nazi gold, and then there's gold used to fund the Nazis....

"The Land of the Free_____ HA HA HA"
....a merry sketch of irony, blasphemy and goldbuggery.....Part 5.....

Once Roosevelt confiscated your gold, on April 5th 1933 then raised the price to $35.00 from $20.67 what happened to all your gold?

Why, it went to replace the gold the good old US of A sent to Germany to help finance World War II. Aint that sickening. The US Govt underwrote the German war effort. And then insulted her citizens by stealing her citizens gold to replace the blood money.

The following quotes are from Congressman Louis T. McFadden, who should, imho, receive a Golden Kitco award for telling the truth about your dammed Gomt. Quotes from

The more I look at this, the more I realise that we at kitco are true allies and our Gomts make enemies of friends and citizens while making allies of enemies.

On April 27, 1932, the Federal Reserve outfit sent $750,000 belonging to American bank depositors, in gold, to Germany.

A week later, another $300,000 in gold was shipped to Germany in the same way.

About the middle of May, $12,000,000 in gold was shipped to Germany by the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Banks.

Almost every week, there is a shipment of gold to Germany. These shipments are not made for profit on exchange -- since German marks are below parity against the dollar.

Immense sums belonging to our national bank depositors have been given to Germany on no collateral security whatever. The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Banks have issued United States currency on mere finance drafts drawn by Germans.

Billions upon billions of our money has been pumped into Germany -- and money is still being pumped into Germany by the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Banks. [prelude to W.W.II]

A few days before the Federal Reserve Act was passed, Sen. Elihu Root
denounced the Federal Reserve Bill as an outrage on our liberties; and made the following prediction:
"Long before we wake up from our dreams of prosperity through an
inflated currency, our gold will have vanished, and no rate of interest will tempt it to return.

to be continued......

just call me an ungrateful ally


(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:27 - ID#225127)
I don't see AG & RR charging into the breach yet!!!!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:30 - ID#254269)
3.30 reading, Dow down 228 volume 654 mill shares; that's 57 mill shares in last 30 minutes.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:30 - ID#426220)

Gene Inger correctly asserts that the growing strength of the US dollar will eventually come back to haunt the American economy. ...every upward tick in the Dollar puts more future pricing risk into the domestic manufacturing sector versus foreign market competition.

Overall Inger remains BEARISH on the stock market.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:31 - ID#225127)
I intend to defend GOLD by buying this weekend.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:31 - ID#39133)
CNBC Guest Battipaglia still bullish on surprising!
CNBC just interviewed Joe Battipaglia and he is as always, still bullish
on the U.S. stock market. I find it interesting that dishonesty has a
way of showing in one's appearance.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:31 - ID#432107)
How low will gold go
I have noticed that while gold is setting new lows for the year today, gold mining shares are still up from their lows of the year. Could it be that we are gradually converting some confidence back into mining. Is this a sign that we are real close to that bottom that we have been patiently waiting for.

I surmize that until the Dow breaks below the 7600 level that only then will the ( buy on the dip ) equity fanatics be convinced that this Bull run is over. And only then will people look to gold for safety. Next week maybe?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:32 - ID#254269)
It's going to be a long weekend around the world.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:33 - ID#225127)
Its time to fade old Joe the Batt-a-bag.

Good ol' boy
(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:35 - ID#26345)
A government has the ability to tax. Therefore,all assets within a governments dominion are subject to taxation. The govermnment may be large, like the U.S., or small consisting of something like a sewage district, but when it issues a general obligation bond it has the powere to levy upon all of the assets under its control. The difference being that a country can resolve its debt problems by either taxing its citizens or issuing new currency while the sewage district can only sell off assets within its control. It should be noted that whether the people re taxed directly or new currency is issued, the end result is the same- the citizen has lost value.

If gold was just sitting in deposit boxes not doing any good, why did not the government just issue new currency or debt instruments. It seems this would have been an alternative to making the citizens cough up their gold. I would guess that the reason for the executive order was that we were on a gold standard and the government did not have gold to issue paper against. Now it has no such retraints with gold floating. Coincidentally, and not unexpectedly, there has been tremendous inflation here in the U.S. since the U.S. was unbundled from gold.

Even at $280 an ounce, gold remains somewhat within line with the inflation which occured. The dollar is king of the hill right now, but someting big is brewing- let the DJIN fall out of the sky or something happen from some unexpected quarter, and gold will once again be the primary measure against which all currencies must contend, as has been the case for the past 4,000 years.

Spud Master
(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:36 - ID#273112)
Translation service for Karlito98, or, I love the sound of desperation in a paper-bug's voice
KarlMarxito wrote:

"Golds drop, on the other hand, comes after two years of a crushing bear market. You hang on to gold for dear life despite all the evidence of one of the longest most value destroying bear markets in the past 50 years. Give it up.... invest with your heads for a moment and not your hearts and you may have a shot a making some money. "

Spud translates:

"Quack quack quack quack quack quack ... quack quack QUACK!!.. QUACCCCCCK!! Quack QUACK QUACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

When paper is down 100%, my gold will still have the recognized value it has had for ALL of recorded human history. And the worthless promises that the paper represents will join the gallery of past worthless promises.

Or you can follow KarlMarxito's advice, and give your worthless gold to the equally inept and worthless thugs in the Federal Reserve who helped bring this all about by their unlimited LUST for power & control.

Isn't it funny - we who believe in freedom, honesty, a government that can be trusted and believed, are reviled; while the pushers of false promises, paper lies, manipulators of public opinion are reguarded as wise men, great sages and leaders. Duck & cover time, Karlita.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:37 - ID#246224)
In contradiction to your blanket statement, most of us did make a few bucks from the aforementioned markets recent 15 year performance. As they are in a bad way now we are out. Some very early in this respect. Now what were you recommending to take it's place?? Bonds? Cash. Of course. But as you stated simply and well "the worst financial disaster since WWII". What probability do you give to a real disaster like a liquidity failure? None? Surely you must see trouble here. If Mexico in '95 represented something that was widely admitted to "endanger the world financial system" than THIS situation MUST be far, far worse!!! ( considering the amount of money dangling in the breeze, size of these economies, etc )

Gold HAS been hammered. But it is still physical and does not evaporate like some Asian economies we might mention. Cumulative currency/equities losses of 50 to 90%. Ouch! This from the point of view of the USA. These economies were called 'miracles' in 1996. Now they are trash. What is your probability of something like this happening here? 0.00??? If you are talking about using your head then you must always take seriously even remote possibilities. But if you discount them based on superficalities then YOU are not using your head. AG talked for 15 minutes about deflation. When was the last time that happened ( FRB chairman talking of such things ) ?

Anyway, I'm glad to hear you at least see we have a real problem in Asia as per your description. My sense is you want proof before taking anything too seriously. All it takes is time and we will see.

Last September/October many here were pretty sure this Asian business would not bode well. It turns out that perception was unfortunately very accurate. What current Kito concensus will turn into next month's reality??? In terms of global analysis we've done pretty well.

As per your comment about "end of the world" sentiment here, I can see you don't live in Asia. And possibly you wouldn't say such a thing until the 'Asia' thing happens here. No it wouldn't be the 'end of the world' like a nuclear winter, but it will not be very pretty. Until then ...

BTW if you go into US Bonds now you will be at the lowest interest rate in many long years. In this situation, as you are quite well aware, any untick in Bond interest rates would reduce ( lose ) capital in those bonds. you just bought. Well, you may believe that our bond's rate will only go down from here, and maybe they will. But I kind of doubt it. In fact we have these prices because we are at the peak of a flight of captial into same. When that abates those who bought will get hammered. Cash sounds best for now if not interested in 'playing' and don't want PMs.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:38 - ID#238295)
Golden Volcano
The golden volcano will begin to erupt when the Asian earthquake quiets down. Gold will continue to slide, or at best hold steady, as long as Asia is in the dumps. But not one day longer as international capital flows reverse with stunning speed.

Considering the huge short position, a genuine trend change is out of the question until they panic. That implies a $20 or $30 upday. Modest $5 and $10 rallies are suckers plays to trap the unwary.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:41 - ID#194311)
DOWn elevator....all aboard!
when a stock is worthless it really is a worthless piece of paper staring back at you....when gold is worthless it is a priceless rarity with a healthy weight to hold in your hand.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:41 - ID#225127)
Remember a devalued currency doesn't regain its relative value. GOLD WILL.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:42 - ID#429245)
Gold confiscation
Karlito99__A Thanks for your answer to my gold confiscation question. Your answer carries a certain logic, but I am not convinced that the government would take such a serious action against its citizens ( subjects? ) on that kind of speculation. If they were holding gold because of fear of other types of investment, why would they choose those investments after their gold was confiscated? I would think they would be even more fearful than before and search for other safe havens. My suspicion is that this confiscation was a calculated step toward attacking gold as a monetary instrument.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:44 - ID#372131)
Counterfeiting goes into a higher gear
Karlito99-"The wealth that was being tied up in gold was viewed as a dead weight on the economy."

Gold was money in those days. Wouldn't this have been like saying "the wealth that is being tied up in money is a dead weight." The reason was that the gov't,,
under the advice of John Maynard Keynes, was getting ready to speed up their
counterfeiting operations. Big time!

Why give the screwees a way out.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:44 - ID#23782)
G bug
Check out the volumes in the XAU stocks. Little
to NOTHING. Nobody wants to sell here.
The music stops, get a chair. OH GEE, lucky me
my chair is made of GOLD.

I'm not gonna be PEOPLEO. POOR PEOPLEO

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:44 - ID#373403)

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:49 - ID#246224)
Who will you sell this to???What will they pay you for it???
These questions are two of my reality checks. If there is no one else in line after you then you just wasted your money. Real estate can be that way. Equities can be that way. Even Bonds can be that way.

I can't imagine the problems people who are supposed to manage huge amounts of money face when they try to rationalize having a big footprint in any market or economies as a whole. After they are invested they can't move very fast or else they will destroy their own value. It gives me the heebee-geebies just thinking about it. It works as long as it works. But when it doesn't work it stinks to high heaven.


Good ol' boy
(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:50 - ID#26345)
Bless you Karlito99
You do a great job of playing the role of devil's advocate. One can be a little smug when he has been proven right, even rub a little salt in the wound. But, every dog has his day. The trick is to catch the movement when it happens and unfortunately, many of the gold bugs were clearly off the mark. Yet the comments appearing on this site are collectively important as they do impart a certain school of thought.

I thought $320 was a bottom, then the bottom fell out and one wonders how far it will go

Spud Master
(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:51 - ID#273112)
Gold confiscation? Try it.
I suggest that it will begin with lead confiscation first, willingly delivered, at high velocity & accuracy.

222 years a group of thugs from Britian tried to control our lives.

They got their answer.

Our Founding Fathers put Article 2 in the US Constitution to ensure that when the day came that our government became compromised by like-minded thugs, We the People would have recourse.

From "A Texas that can say No"

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:55 - ID#344308)

now, now spud-potato-man-----

we'll be compassionate and use rubber and bean ( bullet ) bags first!; )

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:55 - ID#333131)
NightWriter, Like your ideas but "yellows"
For 1000th ounce of gold, how about milau? Rymes with pillow.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 15:59 - ID#373346) market wrap

(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:00 - ID#225127)
AG & RR sent BC into the breach and found him at a Vietnam road side car wash

(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:01 - ID#373346)

(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:02 - ID#344308)

yabbbbbaaaa dabbbbbbbaaaa dooooooooooooo..........
( fred flinstone )

another day at the rock-pile.......aph....sure hope you
got stopped-out on your long S&P position you picked-up

---------don't be afraid of the lawnmower blade------

hey, it's the january effect!!!!!!! look at the volume!!!!

2'nd heaviest volume day ever!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:02 - ID#254269)
Dow down 223 to 7579; 737 million shares (83 mill in last half hour);
S & P 500 down 28.54 ( 2.99% ) , 30 yr. bond at 5.704 %. Busy day.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:18 - ID#225127)
The recent printing press runs werw only a test. Now, we will see the true speed of the new presses.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:20 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 27.24

(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:22 - ID#316193)
Thoughts on money...e.mail today from my local coin shop
Welcome to this first in occasional communications about money topics.
This letter is not investment advice, but is some information you should
take into consideration in making your investment choices.

The morning paper has a wire service photo of panicked shoppers in Indonesia - the world's 4th largest country - buying everything before the price rises again..the Indonesian money has dropped 25% in one day.

Meanwhile, in Russia, three zeros were chopped off the ruble. Your
50,000 rubles in the bank automatically became 50.

The Dow Jones is off 200 points today, after losing 99 yesterday. Where
is the "recovery," the "New Year's rally?" We agree that the current stock market is an opportunity - - to unload on "suckers" expecting a
10,000 Dow thiis year.

After inflation has reduced the value of a dollar in 1940 to about a nickel's buying power, the government is worried about DEFLATION..prices declined 1.2% in 1997. Is the government's solution to enact more INFLATIONARY government policies?

Silver is currently $5.70 that's a full 36% increase since last July. During the same period, the Dow has declined 7% . Look at how the media hype the good news of the Dow recovering some of its daily loss - - and how metals are ignored. Could it be that stock brokers, banks and investment companies - - all heavy advertisers in the papers and cable news networks - - don't earn a commission if you hold physical metals and investment grade coins?

Gold has a 5000 year history of being a store of wealth. Paper money, once backed dollar- for- dollar with gold, has been printed with such abandon that gold would have to be thousands of paper dollars per ounce to cover it. Yet gold has dropped out of fear that some governments may sell the little reserves they have remaining.

Now if farmers grow too many apples, supply and demand says the price will fall. If Switzerland sells 100,000 ounces of gold, the world supply hasn't changed! The reason gold is falling is not too much supply. It's lack of demand because investors prefer paper assets to hard money.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:26 - ID#41170)
cherokee- congratulations on your great call for today!!

Tally Ho

(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:31 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .229

(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:34 - ID#26793)
Silver/Gold Ratio = 47.40

(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:35 - ID#228100)
Another down day for us Kitco-ites...
Well, it could be worse. At least we still have each other....

(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:37 - ID#217268)
spin doctors
The spin doctors will be busy this weekend...damage control and all that. Now when does that full moon happen ? Soon I think.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:37 - ID#373403)
Your stocksite locked up my computer twice. Did this happen to anyone else? I am running Netscape Communicator 4.04.

Charles Keeling
(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:38 - ID#344225)
Indonesia reels from Asian Contagion
And another one bites the dust............

Chaos in

Rupiah, Stocks Crash

President Suharto of
Indonesia faced the
gravest economic and
political crisis of his
32- year rule Thursday as
Indonesia's currency and
stock market suffered
declines of historic

The military urged calm
in the nation of 200
million people, but the
government appeared to
be stunned by the
severity of the economic
turmoil and powerless to
halt it.

Some analysts said the
cabinet had been
weakened by divisions as
powerful military and
business factions tried to
influence its economic
decisions and jockey for
favorable positions in any
succession to Mr.

Mr. Suharto has
fashioned a highly
centralized political
system that depends on a
strong and capable leader
to hold it all together.

Rumors swirled around
Jakarta that Mr. Suharto,
who is 76 and widely
considered to be in
declining health, would
not seek re- election for a
seventh five- year term in

''For the first time in
three decades, there is a
very real possibility that
the head of government
could change in the next
12 months,'' said Bruce
Gale, regional manager
of Political & Economic
Risk Consultancy. That
could lead, he said, to
''important structural
adjustments in the
nation's political and
economic systems.''

The rupiah lost 12
percent of its value
Thursday, with the dollar
rising in New York to
9,400 rupiah, from 8,375
on Wednesday, while the
Jakarta composite index
fell 12 percent, to 347.11.

Traders said shoppers
were frantically snapping
up goods in the capital
and number of other

Lieutenant General
Yunus Yosfiah, the head
of the sociopolitical
affairs division of the
armed forces, told people
to ''have faith that the
government is trying its
best to handle the crisis,''
the official Antara news
agency reported.

Indonesian military
authorities have said
publicly in recent days
that they expect 2 million
people may soon lose
their jobs, and they have
vowed to suppress

Meanwhile, the Jakarta
Post reported that a
group of retired
Indonesian army
generals, politicians and
other public figures
wanted Mr. Suharto to
step down because of his
age and poor health.

In the past few days, the
head of Indonesia's
second- largest Islamic
organization and a
number of student bodies
have also called on the
country's legislative
body, the People's
Consultative Assembly,
not to nominate Mr.
Suharto for president
when it meets in March.

But diplomats in Jakarta
said that despite the
increasing public calls for
him to step aside -
unusual in a country
where politics is marked
by deference to authority
- Mr. Suharto, a retired
army general, is likely to
be chosen again by the
assembly, which he
effectively controls.

They said that in
announcing a budget
Tuesday that called for
increased spending, Mr.
Suharto was seeking to
minimize social and
political unrest before the
March presidential
elections. The budget was
criticized by analysts and
officials from the United
States and the
International Monetary
Fund for not meeting
austerity targets agreed
to in connection with a
$40 billion standby loan
for Indonesia. Analysts
also said Mr. Suharto
appeared reluctant to
subject his family's
extensive business
interests to the full rigor
of IMF- mandated

''His declining health will
increase the Suharto
family's desire to protect
its interests,'' said David
Brown, senior associate
at the Asia Pacific Policy
Center in Washington.
''There are worrying
signs of family pressures
to reverse reforms and
force out Finance
Minister Mar'ie

Uncertainty over Mr.
Suharto's policies, health
and political intentions,
and his refusal to heed
calls to designate a vice
president and successor
immediately are
contributing to the panic
selling of the rupiah and
stocks, analysts said.

''We now have a weak
president in Indonesia,''
said Mr. Gale of Political
& Economic Risk
Consultancy, ''and if he
stands again, we could
very well continue to
have one at a time when
strong leadership is

''That will be bad news
for the economy,'' he
added. ''You'll have
policy paralysis in the

On Wednesday, the
Clinton administration
warned Indonesia that it
was crucial that it begin
complying with the terms
of the IMF bailout.
Washington thus joined
the IMF in sending Mr.
Suharto a blunt message:
If Indonesia does not
fulfill its reform
commitments, the money
will be cut off.

''We've tried the quiet
approach,'' one official
told The New York
Times. ''Now the
message is being sent
through the markets.''

Within the Clinton
administration, a debate
has already begun over
how to handle Indonesia
in coming months, The
Times reported. Treasury
officials have made clear
that unless Indonesia
complies with terms of
the IMF accord,
continuing support would
undercut the credibility of
other IMF bailouts
around the world.

International Herald
Tribune, Jan. 9, 1998

(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:38 - ID#26793)
Now if farmers grow too many apples, supply
and demand says the price will fall. If
Switzerland sells 100,000 ounces of gold, the
world supply hasn't changed

That is a great analogy. I am going to steal that one to use myself.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:39 - ID#375108)
Bart: Great new "Header" for the site... Go team Palladium and DO somethin', PDL ( PDLCF ) and SWC...

(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:40 - ID#390275)
Emergency Banking Regulation # 1 gives the President, by executive order, the power to confiscate any and all financial vehicles, including savings accounts,checking accounts, stocks, bonds, gold, cash, everything. Now why is this regulation on the books?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:41 - ID#57232)
Where's the PPT?
All: The DOW has been steady dropping at an increasing rate for the last five days. Now down 223. I think catching the DOW on Monday will be like trying to catch a falling knife!
Did they change the circuit breakers to 500 points?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:42 - ID#26793)
I don't look at it as a down day for us. The Dow/Gold Ratio says my gold is worth more than yesterday. It would buy a hell of a lot more stocks, half of Korea and all of Indonesia. Gotta look at the bright side!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:49 - ID#288260)
Lelands post
Well Monex does advertise on CNN "Canadian Mounties for 310

til the year 2000". But your right in the past 15 years all sorts of "market shows and networks" aimed at brokerage and mutual fund advertising dollars, have sprung up on radio and TV. If there is no interest in business all of those broadcasters are out of a job. Including all the procostinators, and seers. Just watch how many viewers Wall Street Week / Moneyline has when people have lost their shirts.

However it has been my experience that in hard times advertisers cut the advertising budget first. But with the pyramid type sales the funds

are involved in ( money has to flow in to keep their balloon inflated )

they may just have to keep themselves on the tube.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:52 - ID#373403)
Interest on the Federal Debt
Interst paid on the debt:
FISCAL YEAR 1997 $355,795,834,214.66
Amount of debt:
09/30/1997 $5,413,146,011,397.34

That makes the interest rate on the debt about 6.55% doesn't this seem high? These figures come from the Treasury.

No wonder Greenspan is more worried about inflation than deflation. Higher interest would kill us. Imagine 8% , 9% , 10% . Our budget would go crumble.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 16:53 - ID#373403)
Interest on the Federal Debt
Interst paid on the debt:
FISCAL YEAR 1997 $355,795,834,214.66
Amount of debt:
09/30/1997 $5,413,146,011,397.34

That makes the interest rate on the debt about 6.55% doesn't this seem high? These figures come from the Treasury.

No wonder Greenspan is more worried about inflation than deflation. Higher interest would kill us. Imagine 8% , 9% , 10% . Our budget would go crumble.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 17:04 - ID#28585) year 2k bug and Mining Companies.
Sharefin...sorry for late response to your query. I went to bed early. Unfortunately, I have no expertise in determining the effect of the Y2K bug on gold mining companies.

I would imagine they would suffer a similar fate to all other industrial companies unable to solve the problem. However, I am encouraged by the knowledge that the gold mining sector is so small relative to the entire economy. Hence, one might expect the gold producers have less of a behemoth to tackle in terms of eliminating the bug.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 17:05 - ID#344308)

watching cnbc talking heads and guests talking about deflation....

a fed chairman admitted that the fed was fixing to RAISE RATES
before the end of '97........ok... so enter the currency crisis...

the us$ is king all- over the world.......our economy is humming....
WHO will buy our products?
WHO can afford our products?

does this scenario create deflation?

chaos and flux are fixing to detonate BOND- BOMB II. when the al- mighty
us$ gets hammered ( coming very soon ) , there will be a flight from the last
strong- hold of paper to the pm's.......this also is right around the

when the us$ slams will soar......and the biggest
sell- off of us treasuries in history, will occur almost silmultaneously........and my bond puts will breathe again...right donald?!; )

we are so close, i can feel the hoars- breath upon me cheek.......
nothing to do with women earl!

as starship- - - - - 'blows against the empire'- - - so shall i, until the
dawning of the right way is established...a place for everything...
and everything in its' place- - relative to nature and physics... eye for an eye....
...paper to wipe and silver to trade with....
..guns to enforce, and guarantee freedoms......and our rights..... carbo- earth- stuff all.....and stuck ( together forever- - marshall tucker ) with each- other, until death do us part......

cherokee!; ) - - - preparing- for- the- future- - - NOW- - - - - - -

(Fri Jan 09 1998 17:06 - ID#28585) year 2k bug and Mining Companies.
Sharefin...sorry for late response to your query. I went to bed early. Unfortunately, I have no expertise in determining the effect of the Y2K bug on gold mining companies.

I would imagine they would suffer a similar fate to all other industrial companies unable to solve the problem. However, I am encouraged by the knowledge that the gold mining sector is so small relative to the entire economy. Hence, one might expect the gold producers are in a much smaller quagmire when it comes to dealing with the bug.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 17:13 - ID#373403)
Interest on the Federal Debt
Interst paid on the debt:
FISCAL YEAR 1997 $355,795,834,214.66
Amount of debt:
09/30/1997 $5,413,146,011,397.34

That makes the interest rate on the debt about 6.55% doesn't this seem high? These figures come from the Treasury.

No wonder Greenspan is more worried about inflation than deflation. Higher interest would kill us. Imagine 8% , 9% , 10% . Our budget would go crumble.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 17:43 - ID#26793)
er, uh, um, I guess so.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 17:53 - ID#347457)
@Donald and gold supply
Donald, related you comment on:
"Now if farmers grow too many apples, supply
and demand says the price will fall. If
Switzerland sells 100,000 ounces of gold, the
world supply hasn't changed"

Yes it did. It's not a matter of how much of "stuff" is somewhere in a safe. It's a matter of how much of it is in circulation. In farming the trick of destroying crop to keep price up were used many times ( as well as in other industries ) If it's not out, available to buy, it may as well lay in the ground.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:00 - ID#36965)
Ouch, Ow, Yeow!! But yet the joke of the day
Well, I for one feel like I was pistol whipped unceasingly in the market today. Gold seems to know no shame. Speaking of knowing no shame here is the joke of the day.

A man is driving down a deserted stretch of highway, when he
notices a sign out of the corner of his eye. It reads SISTERS
OF MERCY HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION - 10 MILES. He thinks it was just a
figment of his imagination and drives on without a second thought.

Soon, he sees another sign which says SISTERS OF MERCY HOUSE OF
PROSTITUTION - 5 MILES and realizes that these signs are for real. When
he drives past a third sign saying SISTERS OF MERCY HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION NEXT RIGHT, his curiosity gets the best of him and he
pulls into the drive.

On the far side of the parking lot is a somber stone building with a
small sign next to the door reading SISTERS OF MERCY. He climbs the
steps and rings the bell. The door is answered by a nun in a long black
habit who asks, "What may we do for you, my son?" He answers, "I saw
your signs along the highway, and was interested in possibly doing

"Very well, my son. Please follow me." He is led through many winding
passages and is soon quite disoriented. The nun stops at a closed door, and tells the man, "Please knock on this door". He does as he is told and this door is answered by another nun in a long habit and holding a tin cup.

This nun instructs, "Please place $50 in the cup, then go through the
large wooden door at the end of this hallway." He gets $50 out of his
wallet and places it in the second nun's cup. He trots eagerly down the
hall and slips through the door, pulling it shut behind him.

As the door locks behind him, he finds himself back in the
parking lot, facing another small sign:


Don't we know the feeling today.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:02 - ID#36965)
Bart your new header is a winner.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:05 - ID#426220)

Gene Inger correctly asserts that the growing strength of the US dollar will eventually come back to haunt the American economy. ...every upward tick in the Dollar puts more future pricing risk into the domestic manufacturing sector versus foreign market competition.

Overall Inger remains bearish on the stock market.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:06 - ID#26793)
Obviously you are smarter than the people I usually argue with! But right now the gold markets are terrified by the overhang of the CB supply. I think if all the CB's dumped the markets would absorb it with only a very temporary decline. It would be quickly offset by the realization that paper had become totally worthless. Every country that has sold gold has had a subsequent decline in fiat currency. Australia, Netherlands, Canada & Belgium come to mind recently. England in the 30's.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:07 - ID#22650)
the "little guy's" faith in the market
I wonder ifthe media is going to interview on TV the "little guy" who had so much faith in the stock market in October? I know I will sleep better this weekend knowing that BC is "trying as hard as he can" to save Indonesia. I expect that the lid will really be coming off of the crock this weekend. I have heard that the European CB's in preparation for the EMU are going to DEVALUE their gold stocks. Beware goldbugs.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:08 - ID#57232)
Gold Supply/demand
Miro, Donald: I would add one point to the "apples" vs "gold in the CB" analogy. Yes, the moment that CB gold is sold the supply of gold went up. But - - unlike the apples that are perishable and have to be constantly produced, that gold is available as "supply" only for a short term, and then it is in someone elses vault. So central bank gold is really available on the market for a very short time. The bottom line is that the CB's can only suppress the price of gold until their reserves run out. That is exactly what the US did from 1961- 1967, and 1975- 1977. And, this period of gold "sales" just ran out, as far as I can tell. Only the producer gold or scrap gold is analogous to the apples.

Did either of you see my post on the Dow - - did the circuit breakers get reset to 500 points? If so, monday could be dramatic. I hope you both have your hard hats on - - I don't know what else might be falling beside the market on monday if the PPT has backed off.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:08 - ID#28098)
Rodium...ummm, duh....What IS it? and hasn't it gone up
quite a bit since November? Seems to me, that yellow sign
on the left of the screen used to say 350? Am I not
remembering correctly?

Lurker 777
(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:11 - ID#317247)
E.B. & all
I believed $280. was the bottom and we closed at $278.25 today.

I am .625% off ( $1.75 ) . I think anyone who comes on this forum and predicts inaccurately any market should be held accountable to a admission of defeat. I humbly admit my forecast was wrong and challenge anyone to predict a bottom in the gold market. I believe my prediction will be closer to the truth than most bears are willing to admit. Where is your bottom? Covered I hope!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:11 - ID#341214)
All: Future Programmer Confiscation
Clinton's Executive Order, April 15th 1999

"By virtue of the authority vested in me by Section 5 ( B ) of the Act of
October 6, 1917, as amended by Section 2 of the Act of March 9,
1933..., in which congress declared that a serious emergency exists, I as
President, do declare that the national emergency still exists; that the
Year 2000 problem inherent in the United States Federal Government
Information Systems and Embedded Systems poses a grave threat to the
peace and well- being of the United States; and that appropriate
measures must be taken immediately to protect the interests of our

"Therefore, pursuant to the above authority, I hereby proclaim that all
able minded Information Technology Programmers, Programmer/Analysts,
and Analysts and all able minded Imbedded Systems Programmers and

Engineers register within fourteen days with agents of the government of
the United States for the purpose of working on Year 2000 remediation
projects for compensation at the official price, in the legal tender of the

"The passports of United States subjects are revoked for the next 90
days to prevent persons of the above described vocations from moving
beyond the borders of the United States and its territories. In addition,
persons of the above described vocations are to remain in their homes
until contacted by an agent of the United States Federal Government
regarding the description and location of their Year 2000 Remediation

"Your vocation is known to the government from past tax returns and
vast resume databases. Therefore, be advised that failure to register with
an agent of the United States Federal Government within the proscribed
14 day period will result in serious penalties including both fines and

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:11 - ID#28098)
RHODIUM, rhodium sorry....
I assume it's a metal; what is it used for?

And since I had to correct my stupid mistake ( h ) , would
some kind sole also tell me why the Panda coin was
unavailable in 1997? Thank you for both inputs.

Aragorn III
(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:15 - ID#212323)
A neat trick everyone can try at home!
I invite everyone to join me in the most gratifying of fiscal endeavors. A good friend recently told me on an unrelated topic that, "There's nothing wrong with being 'ahead of your time'." This has proven to be great comfort to me in regard to my investment decisions. Wouldn't we all like to hit the exact peak ( selling ) or exact bottom ( buying ) ? It can't reasonably be done, but in today's marketplace, 'too soon' doesn't have nearly the downside potential ( whether SELLING DOW and S& P or BUYING gold ) as 'too late' does.

I bailed out of the mutual fund/stocks last September after seven years of regular contributions and gains that were so astounding as to seem 'ill- gotten'. We've all heard the expression "Easy come, easy go" and the time seemed ripe for that immutable truth to make good on its latter half. Only I got out ahead of time, and didn't pick the high that was yet to follow ( or still to come, perhaps? ) . But with this money safely on the sidelines ( money market, bonds ) I found sleeping at night became worries.

Watching the financial fiasco unfold in SE Asia however began to make me restless. Paper money issued by any government as an irredeemable currency is ultimately as pathetic as a snowman on a sunny day. Finished buying gold mining stock in December. Judging by today's prices I bought too soon...but look at that DOW fall.

Now attention must turn to gold. In hindsight I can't believe my good fortune at resisting physical ( not paper! ) purchases until the price reached $287. I bought, and when price fell further to $282 I bought more, beleiveing this to be the bottom. The price then rose to $295 and I felt smug having bought at the bottom, but when it fell to $281 yesterday I actually welcomed the opportunity to convert more dollars into physical money at what HAD to be the ultimate low. Damn, today proved me wrong again. But don't mistake me as greedy. I don't regret the few dollars wasted by not buying all previous gold at today's price...I regret missing out on the satisfaction that would come with those future musings "Yes, indeed, kids, I bought gold at its lowest price since the 1970's."

So this is what I propose so that we may ALL lay claim to that same satisfaction. If you don't have gold, buy now! Then, on each day that POG reaches a new low, we all buy one coin - - Maple Leaf, 'harmoniker, Kangaroo, or what you like... This will ensure we will have bought at the bottom whereever it may be. Then we will have both satisfaction AND a mountain of gold!!! The dollar is currently incredibly strong my friends...use it or lose it. Buy gold. Be ahead of your time...

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:24 - ID#333447)
Avalon, Gw et al
FDR was playing with the gold market for a year or so,prior to Ex Oder of '33, with Mellon and Morganthau. The older Ickes, Secy of the interior, '33 to'46 and stooges checked some insurance cos.,brokers and banks. the
phrase re safety deposit boxes was mostly a threat as GW said. Yes GW -
confiscation was a calculated step. For a lot of reasons including yours.
The dollar still had gold content- 1/35 oz. But Americans could not convert, only foreigners. Foreign buyingbetween '34 and '71 was strong. That's why Nixon closed the window.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:25 - ID#30116)
Bart - - The changes are great! Is this a new ISP?

Thoughts for the market. Dow Up Volume around 42 million
Down Volume, almost 700,000,000 shares!

$TRIN was unbelievable all day. Charts later.

As for the PPT, their charter is to oversee an ORDERLY decline, not to prevent one. The idea is to prevent a 'crash'. To let the market go down slowly. Sounds like a dumb idea to me, but then again, what do I know???

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:29 - ID#401460)
WOW! I leave for a few hours and look what you guys and ladies let happen.

Looks like the USCB has been selling their Gold this time, are they next on the list to crash.

It is a shame that the worlds markets have to crash in order for the US to keep selling it's debt to the World.

This must be why Clinton is proposing all of the new governent programs:

Peace Corp. - More Billions
Medicare Medicaid - More Billions
Child Care - More Billions
IMF - More Billions
I am sorry, I can't remember the other 12 items.

Any word on what was decided in St. Thomas @ the meeting of 500? All I have seen has been the staged photos of Slick and Hillary.

I am going to the Grocery Store tomorrow and stock up on supplies, we may be next.


(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:31 - ID#57232)
After the turning point
panda: With the accelerating fall of the DOW over the last five intraday periods, which is your impression of what's coming on monday? Also - - did they raise the circuit breakers to 500 points?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:33 - ID#401460)
Nice Graphics @ KITCO
Bart looks GREAT! A Class Site for Sure.


(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:33 - ID#31868)
freedom or death
I want Camdaesusss that dirtbag. Just for me!!!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:34 - ID#270236)
O.K. I was wrong. Mea Culpa, Mea Culpa, Maxima Mea Culpa!
I thought we hit bottom too at $281. Oh, well! Nobody can pick bottoms
except by luck. The important thing is to buy when things are cheap and
sell when they're not and not worry about picking bottoms. Gold is
cheap and stocks at 22 times earnings are wildly overpriced.

I think it's becoming obvious that the situation in Asia is serious enough and the need for U.S. dollars to pay dollar denominated debt
so imminently great, that the Fed can't wait for the Asian economies
to earn enough dollars through current account surpluses to remedy the
situation. It's also painfully obvious that the IMF bailouts will fail
to provide enough dollars quickly enough to avert disaster. The solution: the Fed must supply whatever quantity of dollars is necessary
to stabilize the Asian currencies against the dollar. The quickest way to do this is through unsterilized intervention in the Forex markets. The Fed should sell dollars in exchange for these currencies and do it
in sufficient quantity to halt their declines. The Fed must accept the
consequent decline in U.S. short rates.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:35 - ID#28098)
I find this difficult to swallow
Hong Kong Standard, Sat Jan 10, 1998
Suharto pledges reforms after pep talk from Clinton
Front Page
President Suharto on Friday vowed to press ahead with
essential economic reforms after talking to United States
President Bill Clinton,as Indonesia's deepening crisis
prompted the army to deny it was planning a coup. After a week of free fall the rupiah was up about 16 per cent against the dollar on Friday compared to Thursday's close, on selling of dollars in Singapore and rumours of central and state bank intervention. It was trading at 8,000 to 8,200 rupiah.

To me, it is more probably that POTUS said, "Do as your
told, and if the army acts up, I'll send in some troops."

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:36 - ID#26793)
At this point it seems that the markets are ( finally ) focused, on Asia and the knock- on for international banking. Some mental calculations have been made by investors of all kinds today. It is finally being realized that the total bailout for Thailand, Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Russia, Brazil, Venezuela et al, is beyond the capability of the IMF and the US. Markets could be reacting in a way that indicates these rescues will not work. One of the signs I am looking for now is the reaction of the dipsters. If the reaction is feeble; ie less than the aftermath of October 27th, then it is all over. Weekend news is crucial as is the longevity ( or lack of ) of a Monday rally.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:37 - ID#287279)
There are physical limitations to just printing more money.
DOW will regain 200 points by Tuesday.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:38 - ID#347447)
Dr Denton's Flap
DENTON TX: Hey Dennis, I think I know what the problem is. You call astrology a "religion." Well, maybe technically a religion ( from the Greek, religios, to bind together ) is anything that creates a shared reality for folks. Like Baseball, or Hockey, or Golf, or Liberalism, or Gold. But in the context in which I THINK you mean it, I have to differ with you. Astrology is not a religion, because, as far as I can tell, there have been no instances of astrologers committing mass murders in the name of their deities, burning anyone at the stake, stretching them on the rack, nor have they imprisoned scientists and otherwise silenced other free thinkers. They are too gentle and humble, too imbued with a love of God and a reverence for the subtle magic of His creation, to be religionists. Sorry.

Therefore, for your edification, let me posit astrology as a form of "technical analysis." This will make you feel better, less threatened, and more amenable to reading my posts when astrology is mentioned. As in the following excerpt from my December 13 Astrological Investor feature at Gold Eagle entitled "Stress Test."

"Jupiter molests NYSE Mercury at 23 degrees Taurus all the week of January 5th

before Mars joins in and they gang up on the Sun, so if weakness manifests at that juncture, odds are that a slide has begun and a potential panic is near. "

Dennis, it don't get too much bettern' that.

Perhaps if you had taken this observation in the technical warning sense in which it was intended ( with no desire to convert you to astrology ) you might have bought some puts as my astrological compatriots did on Monday. I will not mention names. And the best is yet to come. Read the "Stress Test" feature. This market is cracking wide open.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:40 - ID#373346)
Trying this again. Let me know if you
continue to have problems accessing
this site:

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:41 - ID#31868)
This scum that spends the money of your children. The Boss of Bosses is now learning. A tongue is not that which creates money. Welcome to my home Socialist.

blink, blink, blink...

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:43 - ID#347457)
@fundaMETAList (All: Future Programmer Confiscation)
fundaMETAList, don't laugh. That idea floats around. Itll happen in different form anyway. Around Washington DC there is the whole industry of "beltway bandits" companies who do nothing but support the US gov. in High tech area. As the time goes on, more and more work is shifted from the new development to Y2K. Time will come that there will be no other work but Y2K around the DC beltway so effectively the US Gov. through money allocation "drafts" all able bodies to do Y2K for them. There is one problem with that - its getting too late, just like 9 women cant deliver baby in 1 month.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:44 - ID#31868)
No more confiscation! Done.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:45 - ID#401460)

Later , I have to go meet with my retired Foreign Service ( CIA ? ) friend. Should be interesting.


(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:47 - ID#57232)
Donald: I don't have any solid reason for this, but I think the market forces for a downturn are reaching the irresistible level. No matter what happens the dipsters will eventually move in as they did in 1929. It may be different in one respect - - and that is I suspect the debt level of the average american may be higher now - - this might be worth researching. If so, the markets might implode faster than they did in 1929, with weaker dipster rallies. Either way - - I hope you have your hard hat ready for monday!
By the way, the XAU/bullion ratio is nearly at the strong buy level! Everything is slowly coming together, and what money is left after this current downturn will be searching for those few gold shares - - comparable in cash value to the equity value of only one stock: Coca Cola. But that may be changing very soon, along with your DOW/gold ratio.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:48 - ID#31868)
Interesting. Speak soft.

News Server
(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:48 - ID#390100)

Would someone report to us on how Lou Rukeyser and WSW spin this stock market fall?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:51 - ID#316193)
Remember, you heard it first from Vronsky on Kitco... 20Quotes

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:57 - ID#316193)
USAgold URL...again 20Quotes

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:57 - ID#310407)
@ Steady/ Silver
I'm surprised at you two. Steady gloating that Silver has drooped to $5.67, as if I have now been craushed in this investment, and Karlito asking "What happened to your bull market in Silver?"

Steady, you first. My average buy price was $4.30 an ounce. Far from being "Welcomed to the world of PM investing" comment you made implying I'm taking a big beating, my investment is up as of today, 32% in just 7 months. During a time when GOLD, so heavily touted here, has INDEED been crushed! I'm supposed to feel like my Silver is a losing investment now?? I don't think so pal! When it hits $4.00, then you can tell me I've taken a beating.

Karlito, see above! How can a usually objective guy like you, call a 32% rise in 7 months anything less than a bull market? The bull market will be over, if and when Silver truly collapses decisively below $5.00/Oz. and stays there, AND see's a reversal of the COMEX inventory declines. Otherwise I'd say the bull market is wonderfully intact. A few "short" trader rumors being spread on the COMEX floor, does not a bear market make.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 18:59 - ID#288295)
@ Novice SWC, PDLCF

First I've heard mentioned about Pt, Pd stocks in a while....thought I was the only one left holding the bag on these.. Agree with your sentiments.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:00 - ID#310407)
@ DOW blues.......
I love this drop in the DOW but I hope it accelerates in the next few weeks to a 6700 close or lower. Then I'll be buying with BOTH fists you doubters of the strength of U.S. economy!!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:01 - ID#341214)
Miro: I'm far from laughing. I fully expect something like that but I don't know the form it will take. What I see happening is the Feds slowly coming to the realization that they are about to be put out of business BIG TIME and will go into panic mode. They will hope, that by enlisting ( drafting ) that scarce resource known as "programmers", they can keep things together long enough to get the critical systems fixed during the years immediately following 2000.


(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:06 - ID#427357)


The 1929- like crash in Asia is causing misery on a biblical scale, threatening the solvency of banks, stockbrokers, margin calls undermining investors, while the crackpots running the central banks raise taxes and interest rates, wreaking havoc on the middle class and poor.

If all nations printed paper money at different rates, how could there possibly be stability?

Over the millennia, gold has been the traditional receptacle for Mass Fear, along with silver and perhaps platinum. On a "spike" there is no telling how high gold might go when so many try to buy at the same time, like a herd of elephants trying to get through a revolving door at the same time. FULL REPORT at:

(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:06 - ID#310407)
WSJ articles card debt
A few interesting articles in the "WSJ" today. Re Silver, Merril Lynch futures guru stated that SIlver has had no "supply/demand" fundamentals for it's price rise, and that's why it's falling, and that's why he's not bullish.

Hmmm, inventory declining 200 million ounces a year for 7 straight years, production lagging consumption 200 million ounces annually, highest consumption ever and still growing, lowest inventory in 13 years, these are not "supply/demand" fundamentals?? If those aren't, I don't know what is!

As to credit card debt issues addressed here earlier today, many Kitco folks keep claiming we're going further and further into debt. In fact, latest statistics indicate the opposite with consumer spending. Diminishing credit card debt purchases..and as someone mentioned earlier, you must look at debt kept "revolving" vs. monthly total "payoff" to really understand the total picture. I use my Citibank VISA everwhere I can, racking up thousands on it every month...because I get frequent flier miles for every dollar...but I never pat a cent in interest because it's paid in full every month. Millions of other folks do the same.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:08 - ID#210114)
Gold and the Jury
The jury is out on the role of gold. Its continued fall in light of the Asian economic crisis indicates a role more fit for a commodity.

Thanx to Karlito99 et al. for the debate today.

In my view ( as I have stated before ) there should NOT be a gold standard; it is far too inflexible. Karlito is right when he says you should invest with your head and not your heart. As a long term assett over the last 15 years, gold has performed poorly. However, buying at lows and selling at peaks would have brought a tidy profit. Now is one of those lows. It is worth buying now, but youd be advised to sell at the next rise to $US350.

Asia has also shown us the value in holding gold as a reserve asset of last resort. It would have shielded many Asians from the current crisis. I thought this point was proved when Korea asked its citizens for its gold.

My view is his; the jury is out on the use of gold as money. It's future lies in the hands of the CBs as they hold most of it. Particularly the US Federal Reserve. I think it will always be worth holding as a reserve asset. Even as a commodity it will always be relatively expensive. Currency devaluations do occur as we have seen in Asia and in Germany in 1923. A tangible asset is a good guarantee.

So people time will tell. Will the CBs liqudiate their stocks in future years?? Or will they just sell down a substantial fraction but hold on to a reserve like the Australian CB?? Who knows.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:09 - ID#28098)
Say it with RESPECT, RHODIUM UP $50.00 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Rhodium races above $400/oz, highest since Aug '95: Rhodium prices built on recent strength this week, breaking sharply higher and racing above $400 an ounce to levels not seen since August 1995. -
Jan 8 1998

alloying agent to harden platinum and palladium. Such alloys are used for furnace windings, thermocouple elements,
bushings for glass fibre production, electrodes for aircraft spark plugs, and laboratory crucibles
used as an electrical contact material as it has a low electrical resistance, a low and stable contact resistance, and is
highly resistant to corrosion
plated rhodium produced by electroplating or evaporation is exceptionally hard and is used for optical instruments
used for jewellery
industrial catalyst
rhodium is used as part of the catalytic system in car catalytic converters, used to clean up exhaust gases to some extent

(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:13 - ID#31868)
Templar and Mason alike.
Do not play further with people with good hearts.

Not a warning. My remorse is your stupidity. Done. The old seal is not broken. There is more than you and your following.


no further attempts.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:14 - ID#310407)
@ SpudMaster......GoldBug phony's on Kitco
Spud, since the completely phony hypocritical GoldBugs here at Kitco, who always take me to task for being adversarial and caustic in my posts, never take YOU to task for your far more insulting diatribes directed at Karlito...let me take the second Karlito's earlier statement to you that personal attacks do nothing to re- inforce the credibility of your point of view.

When I see some intelligent objective rebuttals to Karlito's posts, then I'll pay attention and read them. For the most part, those who so often accuse me of redundance, continue to ignore the important questions re Gold's perforance, Asian crises response by Gold market, etc. and instead just repeat the same old tired stuff about how fiat paper will soon be worthless as Gold soars.

Objective evidence says otherwise.....

(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:16 - ID#28098)
A. GOOSE...think I just solved the Platinium Riddle---
This is soooooo crazzzzzy...

All the print this summer about platinium "will go up..."
"deliveries won't be made..." and then BOOOM it falls.
"Why?" one asks. And looking at Bart's banner one noticed
something 'irregular'...

And now they MUST have shifted to good old Rhodium, because
one doubts that Rodium is carefully tracked by money runners.

Oh the clever devils.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:16 - ID#398105)
Mo in To............aye it is hard to get now, never mind in a years times

Living here in Kalgoorlie, one of the two cities in the World built literally on GOLD - the other being Jo'burg, we tend to take gold for granted but NOT the gold price. One can literally buy a metal detector and, with a few tricks, go prospecting within 20 kilometres and pick up gold nuggets. If Kalgoorlie has got "hay fever" then Australia has got "Asian flu".

I found it VERY interesting to note that people in non- gold mining environments, in your case eastern Canada, are NOW trying to buy gold and finding it very difficult to do so. A sign of the times?!

GOLD IS RARE, and those who have got it are not going to part with it. As I have said before, gold mining in South Africa produced the order of 1200 million ounces equivalent to US$360 000 million - alot of money. The bulk of this gold now resides in LOndon, Zurich, New York ..... in banks controlled by Rothchild and proxies. Gold on this scale is
financial and political control, way beyond the realms of ordinary" people trying to buy it in Nova Scotia.


"You have three things working to drive the price of gold up:
1.Rising Lease Rates 2.Increasing Consummer Demand 3.Gold Investors "

"To avoid outright economic collapse- Asian governments are devaluing
currencies. Currency devaluation is a hidden form of
hyper- inflation- - the last desperate act before outright economic
collapse. How do you protect yourself from currency devaluation? Gold &

- - The Economic Outlook; Vol. 7. #1. January 1998.

"By the IMF's [International Monetary Fun] own documentation, the
international banking community is trying to create a new global
currency that will be backed by gold valued at between $3,000 to $5,000
per ounce." - - The Economic Outlook; Vol. 7. #1. January 1998.

"In a recent survey, 38% of bank executives indicated they were planning
to withdraw their money from all banks prior to New Year's Eve in 1999.
What are bankers investing in? Precious metals! Collector coins!"
- - The Economic Outlook; Vol. 7. #1. January 1998.

Interesting times

Mike Sheller
(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:22 - ID#347447)
Silver still a Bull is no Bull
LGB: I agree wholeheartedly that silver is still in a decided bull. If anything, there is very clear and considerable resistance around 6.35 - 6.45 on the long term chart going back to a stress line connecting to the '68 bull peak. ( I know, I know, you're not too heavily into charts ) . If anything, I think the current reaction is at its end now. I see the current pullback as preparation to take out the 6.45 level, and go on to 7.75 this year. It may take a few attempts, with possibly a very neat price pattern forming that will signal what may be coming next. March should be decisive.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:23 - ID#210114)
Australian Currency Devaluation
Must disagree with Donald A's posting re the fall in the Oz currency.

It has not fallen because of the gold sales; it has fallen because the much vaunted markets have tied it in too the Asian falls despite the fact that there has not been a banking crisis in Oz.

The Oz currency fell to $US.57 in 1986 and no gold was sold then.

Please consider........

(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:24 - ID#31868)
us, hopefully
comfort, a pillow, a joke, wealth is a happiness misguided.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:24 - ID#35767)
LGB Credit card debt
The contraction in credit belies the consumer confidence. We had the first decline in credit in 4.5 years. This precedes recession as consumer spending is 2/3 of gdp. Consumer confidence is high because of what is heard ( obvious media hype ) and not what they have. The record bankruptcies tell the truth. Look for more hyping of the economy to get they funding from US for IMF read "We are great be generous". Go Pat Buchanan and Gephardt!! Its gonna be great in an election year. I am bearish on gold for now but the bull case can finally be seen developing ie how long will these countries "in trouble" put up with the dollar based system if it causes through the IMF suffering to their people. Couple this with the fact that IT IS the US which is the no. one debtor and ( with credit contraction ) we aint gonna be very good consumers. We are gettin there!! It is always darkest before the dawn.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:24 - ID#310407)
Metal trader comments

Friday January 9, 4:50 pm Eastern Time

NY precious metals ends mixed, silver slides more

NEW YORK, Jan 9 ( Reuters ) - Silver prices closed sharply lower for the second day in a row Friday, and gold
prices slipped further to new 18 year lows, but platinum and palladium prices ended higher.

``The silver market continued to weaken, after the long uptrend broke down yesterday,'' said Carlos
Perez- Santalla, a COMEX floor trader with Hudson River Futures.

``But talk of legal action against parties believed to be manipulating silver was fading, as there's a big difference
between playing the market heavily from the long side and trying to corner it,'' he said.

COMEX March silver ended down 13.5 cents at $5.638 an ounce, after seeing a session low at $5.615, a new
four week low. Total COMEX silver volume was a moderate 21,000 lots.

But COMEX silver open interest fell 2,809 lots to 95,276 contracts Thursday, in data published Friday, reflecting
Thursday's heavy liquidation of long positions, traders said.

Spot silver ended quoted $5.66/68 an ounce, after good bullion bank selling, compared to the London Friday fix at
$6.7400, but the forward price remained in backwardation despite the five percent fall in silver prices in the past
two days.

Silver prices fell sharply Thursday partly on talk of potential legal action against hedge funds and bullion banks
believed to have been manipulating the silver market in recent months.

But analysts doubted there would be a basis for any legal action under the Commodities Exchange Act, as damage
would be hard to prove, and no court documents had been filed in federal court in New York by Friday against
any of the parties alleged to have been manipulating the market.

In data published after the market closed Friday, COMEX silver inventories fell a further 3,246 ounces to
110,578,725 ounces, but stocks remain just above the 12 year low seen in late December.

Silver demand for use in photography, jewellery and industry has been exceeding mine supply for most of the
decade, drawing down inventories build up in the 1980s, but many traders believe some banks and hedge funds
have been taking advantage of the supply/demand equation to push prices higher, in a move reminiscent of the play
in palladium last year.

COMEX February gold ended down $2.70 at $279.10 an ounce, after seeing an early session low at $279.00,
equaling the contract low seen Thursday.

In the bullion market, spot gold ended quoted $278.40/00, after slipping to a new 18 year quoted low at $277.90.

In London Friday afternoon spot gold fixed at a new 18 year low at $278.70, the lowest level since June 29,
1979. In New York Thursday gold had closed quoted $280.70/20.

Implied lease rates for gold were little changed Friday, around 1.50 pct for one month and 1.70 pct for 12 months.

Fears of Asia exporting deflation, sales of gold by Korean and Thai investors, and a report from Goldfields Mineral
Services ( GFMS ) confirming central bank mobilization of gold reserves, were fall factors keeping sentiment bearish
in the gold market, analysts said.

GFMS estimated central banks mobilized about 1,000 tonnes of gold in 1997 - about 600 tonnes in lending
activity and about 400 tonnes in net sales.

GFMS also reported a very large increase in gold imports into the Indian sub- continent to 629 tonnes in 1997 from
434 tonnes in 1996, with fabrication demand, including scrap recycling, noted at 707 tonnes last year, compared to
514 tonnes in 1996.

NYMEX April platinum ended up $2.00 at $364.10 an ounce, and NYMEX March palladium closed up the daily
limit of $6.00 at $215.40.

Term contracts for platinum group metals ( PGM ) between Russia and Japan have not yet been concluded for this
year, it remains undecided when Russia's PGM export agency will send a delegation to Japan to sign this year's
supply contracts and no Russian export licences for 1998 have yet been approved.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:26 - ID#28098)
RHODIUM, we've been snookered (those bankers....I tell ya)

Thursday January 8, 8:06 am Eastern Time
Rhodium races above $400/oz, highest since Aug '95

LONDON, Jan 8 ( Reuters ) - Rhodium prices built on recent strength this week, breaking sharply higher and racing above $400 an ounce to levels not seen since August 1995.

Traders said a combination of factors - fundamental, technical, and SPECULATIVE - lifted rhodium from levels of around $350 in
mid- December.

On Thursday, the spot market rose comfortably through the $400 level to around $410/430. Since December 1996, rhodium has risen from 23- year lows of $230.

The most recent rise has been brewing since last month with steady refiner buying augmented this year by INVESTMENT BANK interest, traders said. Although there is no particular shortage of metal on the ground, rhodium is a thin market at the best of times, so increased interest always has an impact.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:31 - ID#310407)
New site Swchings!
Ultra fast, excellent! More metal trader comments on today's action..
by Tom Popaj, Global Trading Desk

Precious metals futures traded lower yesterday. The yellow metal continues to get hit, as a lack of inflation and the
beginning signs of possible deflation is plaguing the metals market. The US PPI dipped an unexpected 0.2% in
December, which ended the 1997 campaign on an inflationless note. The yellow metal was also pressured by a
Gold Fields Mineral Service report which said central banks sold 500 metric tons of undisclosed gold sales by
Argentina and Australia. The stronger dollar also pressured the metals, especially the silver. Fund selling in the
silver pressured the contract throughout the day as the market hit sell stop after sell stop after breaking the 6.00
and 5.920 support levels. At the close February gold was at 281.80, down 2.90, while March silver lost 24.5
cents to close at 5.773.

Trading in the metals should be volatile for the last day of trading this week, as the unemployment number
( scheduled for release at 7:30 CST ) is expected to show that inflation is practically non- existent. The word around
financial and economic circles is that the U.S. is heading into a state of deflation if we are not careful, and with Alan
Greenspan's comments of late that possibility ( of deflation ) could be a reality. I would recommend staying on the
sidelines until the market has completely digested the report. February gold sees support at 281.00 and resistance
at 288.30, while March silver finds support at 5.720 and resistance at 5.935.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:33 - ID#310407)
I agree, recession may be in the works, and deflation threat means cranking up the money supply. besthope for Goldbugs is an overreaction by AG that spurs inflation

(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:43 - ID#398105)
LGB2 and Karlito

G'Day Mates,


Market - going down rapidly

Gold, well relative to the Sigapor Dollar going up, but not yet broken through the historical long term trend - will it do so!

How do you view "currency devaluations" and "Hyper- inflation" beyond the shores of the USA?

Does Singapore matter? Alternatively do you view the Asian economies now as "cherries for the picking'?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:51 - ID#35767)
Deflation and recession mean default ie all things like currencies which are related to debt which defaults should go down in relationship to assets which are default free as they have no debt related to them. Finally THE PROCESS appears to be in place and there are conditions which would indicate light at the end of the tunnel for non debt related assets. Interesting and appropriate that at the beginning of the melt down money would run to the highest indebted most oversupply market in the world ie US dollar and bonds.. Ya gotta love it the bubble is getting bigger and the fundamentals are moving in favor of a bust. I loved the WAsh Posts stating Larry Summers running
to Indonesia "was a RESCUE of a RESCUE". We are gettin there/ it will be interesting to see the mkt assuring theatrics this weekend. Frankly I think this rescue "thing" is starting to act in a contrary manner to its intended purpose by PPT. In sum, The wave may finally be upon us. But never count PPT out. But one day maybe soon, they will be.

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:54 - ID#295111)

(Fri Jan 09 1998 19:58 - ID#210114)
Would anyone hazard a gues at the new gold bottom now that we have breached the $US280 mark? 265 perhaps? 250 perhaps??

(Fri Jan 09 1998 20:00 - ID#398105)
Anyone want to buy a "Pork Pie"...............

"..... inflation ( US, not Asian hyper inflation ) is practically non- existent. The word around financial and economic circles is that the U.S. is heading into a state of deflation if we are not careful, and with Alan
Greenspan's comments of late that possibility ( of deflation ) could be
a reality"

So, inflation no, deflation yes. Wonderful choice. And to think that if gold was placed back in its normal monetry function at say US$350 per oz, both inflation and deflation could be avoided. So why don't the "Powers that Be" do this????!!!!

I am sure that LGB2 and Karlito will have a trick up their sleeve!

Is anything a reality in the USA? One thing is for certain, your friend not mine - US Public Debt:

01/08/1998 $5,479,700,204,736.38

ITS A RIPPER.........................

(Fri Jan 09 1998 20:04 - ID#398105)
monetry = monetary

(Fri Jan 09 1998 20:09 - ID#333131)
A minor question
Which large cap company will announce a stock buy back on Mon. morning?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 20:10 - ID#364147)
@ Madison Square Garden
Go Knicks- - - kill da Bulls~~~~~~~~~~

(Fri Jan 09 1998 20:18 - ID#286230)
Aurophile: Now the stuff goes up. It hit $7000 about 7 years ago as I recall

(Fri Jan 09 1998 20:18 - ID#410194)
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after trading today:

Gold: Fell 5,159 troy ounces to 473,976

Silver: Fell 3,246 troy ounces to 110,578,725 Just above a 13 year low

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Jan 09 1998 20:35 - ID#295111)
Haggis_A: The Economic Outlook
Haggis_A:: Where can I get a copy of "The Economic Outlook"? Is it on the net anywhere?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 20:41 - ID#31868)
I have read. You have everything to be proud of. You certainly have gained my respect. Kentucky eh. They did not even give Mr. Monroe the proper respect upon his leaving. They never even shook his hand! There is much in what you have sent me. Like I stated. I do not move quickly. But I make no mistake in that everyone knows about it.

That is my way. The governmental agencies will never be impolite to my home, never, and whatever else those shitheads have come up with mean nothing to me as an individual that is an American. You have sent me these things that are that which must be discussed for all to hear. It is done.

There are those in the Marine Corp that love me, and that is a home from which is served apple pie, no joke. I am not kidding.


(Fri Jan 09 1998 20:45 - ID#93232)
@Mr. Bart Kitner......
Congratulations on the newly designed site....especially the frames version. This baby smokes...and soooo easy on the brain. Thanks muchly.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 20:59 - ID#30116)
News Server
What else could or would Louie say? "Buy you chickens!!!" He even had Abby Cohen on for the cheer leader!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:00 - ID#30116)
News Server, JTF
What else could or would Louie say? "Buy you chickens!!!" He even had Abby Cohen on for the cheer leader!

JTF - - I think this sell off was motivated because no one wanted to long over the weekend. After all, Asia opens first.

Charts coming, you be the judge.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:09 - ID#427357)
CURRENCY TURMOIL IN 1998 by Milhouse

The Hong Kong Oracle has given another insightful and perhaps even alarming prediction of what currency turmoil to expect in Asia during 1998. It is definitely NOT a pretty picture. Milhouse gives his considered opinion on most major currencies and GOLD.

Gold will be the major beneficiary of the increasing currency
volatility wrought by EMU and the drive to inflate which is
already underway in almost every country. The reason it will
benefit is because it is the only form of money which exists
outside the financial system. As such, it is the only truly effective hedge against inflation. Any method of hedging against inflation which exists within the financial system involves a payment risk. Also, even if your non- gold hedge is 100% effective, you simply end up with a larger quantity of paper.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:15 - ID#26793)
I didn't mean to imply that selling gold was the only reason for a currency to decline, only that there is a direct cause and effect. If I had thought of it I would have included the slide of the US dollar after the gold window was closed in 1971. No need for wounded national pride. All countries are at fault.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:20 - ID#31868)
Do not apologize. Unbacked paper is for spineless people. Plain and simple. Let's cut to the chase and get this conversation where it should be.

Spock you have a lot of mouth. So what. Spend your own money. But produce it from your pocket. Not your mouth or philosophical diatribe.

Put your money where your mouth is. Not someone else's. Put up or shut up.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:20 - ID#30116)
VIX chart...
Intra- day VIX chart.... Hmmmmmm...

(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:22 - ID#364147)
So quiet here ya
Can hear a god- damn pin drop....or is that gold?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:23 - ID#153111)
tolerent1 19:13 post
I guess your reference of Templars and Masons are directed at my post last night. My point was when things go wrong and people lose control of their lives they no longer desire to assume responsibility of their lives but rather look for a excape goat to blame. For centuries people have chosen Jews to fullful this bear market function. In no uncertain terms I think this is evil. My references to the Templers, Free Masons, Italian Mafia, and the Kennedy family was done in jest. I don't think you can call the Templars good people thought. In John J Robinson's "Dungeon Fire and Sword" ( The Knights Templar in the Crusades ) he makes a good case that the Tempalars were not the best people to move in next door to you, but were good at collecting loans made by the loan officers at the Temple.

As far as the Kennedy Family is concerned, well all I have to say is that in the future I don't think the historians will be as kind to them as the press of today has been. They also tend to confuse public money with their money when contributing to their favorate charities

(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:25 - ID#30116)
TRIN chart.
Intradat $TRIN chart. Check this out folks. The selling has been going on for a few days. My PCs Power supply fan decided to um.. . Well, Wednesday is missing. TRIN above 1 indicates selling pressure.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:25 - ID#35767)
Screw your bloody Knicks go Washington Wizards!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:25 - ID#35767)
Screw your bloody Knicks go Washington Wizards!

Bill Buckler
(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:28 - ID#257234)
Greenspan and Inflation/Deflation
When Alan Greenspan uttered the dreaded "D" word in his speech to the American Economic Association on Jan. 2, he made this remark:

" has been very rapid price declines - in EQUITY and real estate especially - that have held the potential to be a virulently negative force in the economy."

Rising equity prices were never considered as an inflationary component. But falling equity prices ( in the context of the speech ) are now a prime component of deflation. This is known as selective economics.

I have built this into my latest Gold commentary. All Gold charts and commentary are now up at http://www.the-

And speaking of "Deflation", on a weekly basis, the Dow has closed BELOW its 200 day MA for the first time since December 1994. See our weekly Dow chart ( back to 1987 ) at http://www.the-

(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:31 - ID#30116)
WHOOOOPS! My previous is the wrong one, date wise.
Todays chart.....

(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:35 - ID#31868)
Actually, I was about to sit and sip a cup of cocoa, it is chilly here. I was to some degree discussing your writing of the previous evening. In fact I finished reading The Meaning of Masonry, W. L. Wilmshurst last evening.

I am part jew and armenian and my drill sargents worst nightmare. There are mongolians that love me though, in spite of my American heritage.

Crystal Ball
(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:41 - ID#287367)
Bart- Love the new decor!
Puetz- How much down on Monday? 600? 1000? More??? PLease tell me!
You think the US market got whupped. Mexico IPC Index - 5.98% , and the Mexican Peso got creamed as well: ( down over 2% against the $US )
XAU: I don't think 63 will hold ( maybe 50? ) No hope for gold until $US peaks. Silver should hold between $5.20 and $5.40, and what the Heck is goin' on with the PGMs?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:41 - ID#26793)
IMF check must have arrived in the Saturday mail
South Korea now trading up 6.5%

(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:48 - ID#242349)
@Calling the kettle black
LGB1,2,& etc- Ref:insults
I've been reading the comments on this site for about a year now. And,
generally all the interactions among the audience is positive. What I've seen from the all the previous posts from you and your merry followers, your the ones who fire the first shots in the war. In short, you all have done your share of stirring the pot. So, is there something in your reasoning that makes you think your insults are more acceptable than others thrown your way. PRACTICE WHAT YOUR PREACH!!!!!!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:49 - ID#26793)
Pssssst: Did you hear Indonesia may declare debt moratorium on $133 billion?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:49 - ID#301318)
Need a work-out?

While driven home from the mine this evening I noticed a new gym openning along the highway. The name of the gym? Why it was Gold's Gym of course! I will be takin' my gold there in the morning for a work- out. ( that laughin thing )

Rocky: ...not that trick again!
Bullwinkle: Nothin up my sleeve...

MY PREDICTION FOR THE BOTTOM: $269.70 on record.

Bullwinkle: I think I better get another hat. #$% @& !!!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:50 - ID#31868)
MJPL It ain't much but this is me.
Where there is no dream, the people perish. We must collectively provide hope, and challenge the human spirit. Life is effort, when any individual no longer believes this they begin to wither.

Individuals that confront challenges, disabilities and disadvantages awaken each day with a sense of worth, becoming more valuable to themselves and society as a whole.

I do not pretend to be a master of the issues, nor do I believe that I alone have the collective wisdom and foresight to make responsible decisions that will effect our lives as well as generations of the unborn yet to come. We all need to actively participate in the decisions pertaining to the world we live in and share.

Now is the time to act, to help reshape common thought and let peace, tranquillity, wisdom and spirituality guide all of us as we enter an era when humankind can truly appreciate the integrity of creation.

The entire range of inter- cultural and international affairs is at an unprecedented point in human history. There is no question that as we hurtle towards the dawn of the 21st century a miraculous window of opportunity is opening. A new age renaissance, wherein all citizens of the world will come to truly understand their inter- dependence upon one another.

Business as usual is no longer the standard fare on the global plate, new methods, a new form of understanding and a true desire to communicate are quickly altering the self- imposed myths that have held back humanity from moving forward into the sun lit river known as the future.

Instead of acting like children that shy away from the dark, let us move together, step by step, hand in hand, into a world which is illuminated by sensitivity, intellect and compassion. Let the global populace embrace a universal sense of community through the individual gift that each member of humanity brings into the world.

We must strive for a world where there is freedom to access and access to freedom. A world in which people realize that communication and teamwork are essential for all of us to live in community.

We have the tools, let each of us learn how to put them to work.

This then is my belief, that which it is, that which I live by.

Crystal Ball
(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:51 - ID#287367)
A tip o' the hat to the Captain
To access Bill Buckler's Dow Chart ( highly recommended ) http://www.the-

there cannot be a space between hyphen ( - ) and privateer

(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:53 - ID#364147)
ROR--I heard you the first time
and yer 'Bullets' suk~~~~

Crystal Ball
(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:54 - ID#287367)
Visit the Privateer - a great site!
To access Bill Buckler's Privateer gold pages

there cannot be a space between the hyphen ( - ) and privateer

(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:58 - ID#398105)


Barrick are active in China, but I could not source details.

A listing of active companies is as follows:

Minerals Australian Gold Development NL, Barrick Gold, Breckenridge Resources, China Clipper Gold Mines, Diamond Works, Donner Resources, Minco Mining, Pan Asia Mining, Quantum Resources Limited

An interesting one is Quantum Resources Limited from the J Gutnick stable ( with ex Prime Minister R Hawke on the Board ) - an exploration and mining company focused on China and the Pacific Rim. Quantum has begun operations in China focusing on Diamond exploration ( apparently not gold at this time ) . Quantum holds a strategic investment in Johnson's Well Mining N.L., with a controlling interest of 40.3% . Other Investments include Mt. Kersey Mining N.L.; Australian Gold Resources Limited, and Australia Wide Industries

(Fri Jan 09 1998 21:59 - ID#390249)
CB's loan 600 tons gold in 1997
According to the daily precious metals update I receive, GFMS reported that the CB's loaned 600 tons gold in 1997. I thought I had read here that someone named Veneroso estimated that the total loaned gold was 8,000 tons. Maybe the 8,000 tons was the total short position. Would someone please clarify what this 8,000 tons was. Thanks in advance.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:00 - ID#78116)
Roosevelt Did Gold Investors a favor
In confiscating gold, not only was Roosevelt trying to kick start the economy by flushing wealth out of a dead asset like gold into more productive assets, he was also doing gold bugs of the day a great service.

First of all the government paid the gold bugs a premium. Gold was selling at $20 an ounce and the government bought them out at $35, thats how they were able to get gold bugs to cooperate. Otherwise, why turn in your gold.

Secondly, by forcing gold bugs to invest in the paper economy, Roosevelt put them in at the bottom of the market. Had gold bugs held their gold, their $35 worth of gold today would be worth $280.

But by forcing them into the stock market, then trading at 96, gold bugs made a killing. Instead of getting an 8 fold gain in their investment ( 280/35 ) they got nearly an 80 fold gain ( 7600/96 ) . We all should be so exploited!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:01 - ID#34592)
Educating people isn't fun, tolerant1 knows
I had an interesting conversation with a well educated friend at work:

The market took a dive, I told him. We are heading south like the Asian markets.

- hmmmm, he replied

I continued explaining the financial implications for the people in the US, not touching gold and PMs.

- hmmmm, he replied

I continued till I reached the punch line. We are heading for a depression, I said.

- hmmmm, this will not stop me from eating tonight.

I gave up the conversation, I felt crashed inside and sorry for him.

Later on, he started talking to me, while I remained quite he told me all about the news concerning him, Sonny Bono's funeral, the weather back east, what he had for lunch.

Where do you place him? Mainstream America, or educated elite?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:05 - ID#26793)
India mints special gold discs for redemption of gold backed bonds.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:07 - ID#26793)
Oops: Here is the gold disc/bond story from India. Sorry

Spud Master
(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:08 - ID#273112)
is like saying Stalin did the Ukranians a favour...
Karlito, man, drop the BS.

FDR was member of the wannabe "elite" aristocracy of America who did EVERYTHING to further his own power. Confiscating gold from law- abiding American citizens was simply a criminal hold up.

Is this the kind of reasoning you expect us to swallow?

Does a mugger do me a favour by taking my money? Not many people would agree.

Hmm, perhaps it's the crime being comitted by an "important" person, in Karlita's preverted reasoning that makes it not a crime?

FDR, being "an important" person, can commit low- born thief, and it's OK.
And of course, Karlito, having invested his heart and SOUL in this continued group of criminal schemeing, must do all in his power to perpetuate it.

Karlito, your thoughts and logic sicken me; everything you stand for is in contravention of American freedom.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:10 - ID#390249)
Indonesia - Flight of capital

I had read somewhere today that part of the demand for dollars in Indonesia was a flight of capital. I think the Suharto's and their cronies are trying to get their money out.

I had read ( in the Economist I think ) about a year ago that one thing in the Suharto's favor was that they always reinvested their money in Indonesia. I think they're trying to cash out now.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:11 - ID#34592)
@ all
How much cyber space will be dedicated for Lolito's education? The more you try, the worse he gets "getting it".

"Those who have ears, let them hear", I read some place ...

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:12 - ID#31868)
MJPL I am not as ignorant as my conversation
My family has lived in concert with and next door to Templars, ( they are oh so secretive ) Free Masons, Italian and other Mafia, Kennedys and plenty of others. There is what there is and there are the streets in front of my Father's home and in his neighborhood. He is gone now. In his name, little children and women walk when they will, and when they choose.

There is law and there is THE LAW.

I am a very peaceful fellow in pajamas with ten inch knuckles.

Nuff said, I must go now and play Scrabble. Have a pleasant evening. For your sake. Sweet dreams.

Pacific Northwest Dave
(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:13 - ID#223187)
What is "Rhodium"?

O.K., so I"m a little bit ignorant, but could somebody tell me a little about
Rhodium. Is it used in industry or what? Thanks!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:14 - ID#242349)
@Incorrect Statement
Karlito99 - Your are incorrect sir. The goldbugs would have had almost a
25 fold gain. They would have sold in 1980 when gold was trading around

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:14 - ID#222167)
Crystal Ball: This week was nothing in US stocks. Wait until next week , and the week after. 2 or 3 days of the DJIA down more than 1000 point is to be expected. The period between a full- moon and a new- moon is historically negative for a bubble- market - - once it bursts.

The full- moon on monday will be the start of the greatest stock market crash of all time. On Wall Strret Week tonight, the elves were still a bullish +4. Martin Zweig was still bullish. He believes - - as long as the Federal Reserve is easy, stocks will rise. That belief assumes that any individual entity can control the economy. If it is obvious, it is obviously wrong - - as Granville used to say. Deflation has the upper hand, and the Fed has lost control.

I'm still looking for the DJIA to crash to somewher between 2000 and 5000 before the end of January ( this year ) . Monday should be a serious down day. Maybe not 1000 points, but it could very well be.

Let it be known, I'm still very bearish on stocks, and very bullish on gold and silver.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:14 - ID#26793)
Risks are rising for Indonesian debt moratorium (bye, bye Citicorp) times/paper/1998/0108/fro1.html

Spud Master
(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:14 - ID#273112)
Karlito - modern day Brown Shirt?
You wrote:

"In confiscating gold, not only was Roosevelt trying to kick start the economy by flushing wealth out of a dead asset like gold into more productive assets, he was also doing gold bugs of the day a great service."

Do you also mean:

In confiscating gold- teeth from Jewish corpses, not only was Hitler trying to kick start the Gernam economy by flushing wealth out of a dead asset like Jewish people, Gypies and political prisoners into more productive assets, he was also doing gold bugs of the day a great service.

I have little doubt you would fit right in with any totalitarian regime. Your logic is twisted and sick.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:16 - ID#26669)
Quick and Dirty Amateur Suit Price Survey
Remembering the old story about men's suits and gold prices made my annual pilgimage to the after holiday sales bearable this year. This is the result. At the el cheapo suit outlet prices were $139 for their really bad suits to $299 for the basic wearable suits. Then in the mall there were basic wearable suits in one store for $295- $319. A better store ( one with a good reputation for quality ) carried name brand suits for $375- $650. The ones in the $550- $650 range were Italian and all the rest were from exciting exotic places like Bangaladesh, Taiwan and Malaysia. Nothing from North America.

So what does that mean for the price of gold? Draw your own conclusions.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:18 - ID#333131)
Thanks for the info on mining cos in China.

Mr. Mick
(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:18 - ID#345321)
Thanks Bart! - Kitcoites are great people!
I have learned a lot and in a way, gotten to know you all through this site. Thanks for the education and analysis, both on intellectual and moral arenas.
Bart, you've done a great job with the site. Keep up the good work!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:18 - ID#398105)
SpudMaster................. temper, temper...........

We all know that Karlito99 is a bit of a "cotton wool job".

He is yet to discover his inner child, and when he does he will find that it is probably freaked out, needs to go to the lou and wants to know if he's nearly there yet. response to the 'Optimum Price of Gold" article by J Wanniski!?

Join in the DISCUSSION, instead of labouring on your " " "OWN" " " thoughts!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:21 - ID#31868)
Here I was off to play a nice game of Scrabble and you have to speak like Stalin. You say your father was in the military. I pity the day you and I meet. I will mail your tongue home before the body bag gets there out of respect to your family.

FDR did citizens a favor by robbing them. You should be nailed to a tree for treason.

You have no soul.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:22 - ID#78116)
Hey Spud
The only thing here that is twisted is your mind.

You have completely twisted what I said... but that should be expected.

As someone who is part Jewish, your comments are about as
offensive as I have seen here which says a lot

you are a despicable piece of human refuse

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:22 - ID#346308)
[not so TOLERANT ONE after all]
My guess is, Tolerant1 must have alot of nonperforming PM'S in his stash
why else, would anyone be in such a defensive mode. It seems you got quite spooked by Mr.Spock's question at large. I know for a fact, whenever very powerful phantasies are challenged by the remote possibility of reality, it can trigger anything from a minor to a major
psychosis. We have all witnessed such reaction when RJ called for gold
3- 2- 5 the Spanish Inquisition came to town ,hot oil and the works. Well,
having said that, the majority is always wrong, the minority may be right.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:22 - ID#398105)
223............don't speak too loudly

I hear that you can get "velly velly" cheap suits in asia now- a- days!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:26 - ID#78116)
Haggis: On the optimal price of gold
I posted this a day or two ago, for your edification, I post it again

Jude wrote:
Gold has once again superbly demonstrated its ability to
foreshadow changes in the general price level.

Karlitos response:
Actually, gold has been totally out of sync with the general
price level. Inflation continues to rise in the US, albeit at a
lower pace, the price of gold has fallen outright. Were
gold a true measure of the price level then as the price of
gold dropped from$800 to $280, the price level should
have made a similar drop if Jude is to be believed and
yet, the cpi has increased by just over 100% since 1980.

Then Jude wrote:
Modern central banking and the use of government debt as money has
eliminated golds utility as a medium of exchange and sharply reduced its
role as a store of value.
Karlitos response:
Just the point I have been trying to make here at Kitco for the past
several months. At least Jude is more of a realist about the current
status of gold.

The Jude wrote:
Should the gold price decline from that same optimum point, it signals a shortage of liquidity in the banking system. A shortage means the market is trying to finance sound transactions, but
cannot. Now the Fed should buy bonds from the banks, supplying the needed liquidity. Otherwise, transactions that should be financed will not take place, initiating the process of economic decline called deflation.
Karlitos response:
This is where Jude loses it, its also points out why gold can no longer be used as a
basis for making monetary policy. As gold slips its central bank moorings, its price
can only drop. That, in turn, forces the Fed to be in a state of constantly trying to
liquify the economy to keep the price of gold up. The result will surely be an
acceleration of inflation.
Secondly, such a policy rule puts the control of US monetary policy in the hands of
the central banks of other countries. Why should the US Federal Reserve ease
credit policy just because the Argintines decide that gold is a bad investment for
them. That would be totally insane. Or better yet, why should the Fed tighten if
the price of gold were to rise as a result of a short squeeze. Again, the result could
only be disasterous for the US economy.

Then Jude wrote
When the Reagan tax cuts increased the demand for liquidity that the Fed refused to supply, in early 1982 gold fell to $300 from its 1980 average of $600. The deflation produced the worst recession since the 1930s. The savings- and- loan industry, which had deployed the surplus liquidity of the 1970s in ever- riskier loans, collapsed under the deflations weight.

Karlitos repsonse:
Total nonsense. Gold peaked in the fall of 1980, its collapse had nothing to do with Reagan, or his tax cut. The economy was headed for a severe recession, the decline in the demand for all commodities is a part of any recession, thats what brought the price of gold down. Reagans tax cut actually gave gold a brief bounce in 1981 and into 1982. It was the Dole tax increase of 1982 that brought interest rates down, and allowed the economy to recover, putting a stake through the heart of gold.
If the drop in the price of gold created such a problem for the S& Ls why
did it not create a similar set of problems for the regular banking sector? The reason is
simple: the problems of the S& Ls stemmed from the ill- conceived manner in which they
were de- regulated in 1983.
Having worked on a number of S& L bankruptcies I think I can speak to this issue with
some authority. The S& Ls went south because the Feds deregulated the asset side of their balance sheet while continuing to regulate the liability side. They guaranteed the deposits but let the
S& Ls loan their money wherever they wanted. Its a little like someone giving you $100 to go
to Vegas and telling you that if you win, the winnings are all yours, but if y ou lose, Ill make
your loses good again. Well a lot of the S& Ls made bad bets and the US taxpayer ended up
bailing them out. The price of gold was totally irrelevant to this process.
Deflation in the 1980s? Not by a long shot, the pace of inflation slowed but the price level
continued to rise. There was no deflation as was the case in the 1930s.

The Jude wrote:
Today gold is below $290, after having spent 1981 to 1996 in a range of $340 to $400. With this decline, gold has again shown that it can forecast deflationary pain. The worst has been felt in Asia, where the central banks added gobs of liquidity to the market in order to keep their currencies tied to the dollar in 1993- 96. Why? The 1993 Clinton tax increase had caused a decline in the demand for dollar liquidity. When the Fed did not mop up the surplus, gold rose 10% in dollars, from $350 to around $385. The Asian banks were forced to push their reserves into uncollateralized bricks and mortar.

Karlitos response:

Someone should tell Jude that gold was above $450 for most of 1987 and the first half of 1988.

Asian central banks adding liquidity? The biggest threat to world economic stability today are the
Hooverites running the central bank of Japan. They make the little old ladies of Threadneedle Street look downright expansive. Keynes, were he alive today, would have been scathing in his
contempt for the Japanese central bank.

The Clinton tax increase, oh give me a break. The Bush tax increase of 1990 was about 4 times greater in its revenue generation and came at a time when the economy was in decline. The Clinton
tax increase took the froth off the economy, pushed the budget into balance, and kept inflation from
getting out of control.

How is it that a $35 rise in the price of gold in 1993 created chaos in Asia today when a
$150 rise in 1986- 8 only resulted in a boom in Asia? The Fed wasnt mopping up reserves then either Particularly since it was still offseting the ill- effects of the 1987 market crash.

The Jude wrote:

Alas, when the markets here began to discount the tax cut enacted last summer, demand for dollar liquidity rose, but the Fed, again falling back to Phillips Curve thinking, was worried about rapid growth causing inflation. In refusing to supply the liquidity demanded, the Fed not only wiped out the 10% . It also initiated a new deflation, taking gold down past $350- - which I believe is its optimal price, because it appears to roughly balance the interests of debtors and creditors- - to below $300. In order to deflate with the dollar, the Asian central banks had to withdraw liquidity from the banks and all the surplus brick and mortar, or rather the shaky loans made to finance them, came crashing down.

Karlitos response:

First, the tax cut as a share of GDP hardly registars, total tax revunes as a share of GDP continue
to rise, so wheres the cut?

Secondly, if the tax cut were real, it would have stimulated the US economy, pushing up the price
of gold. Gold has fallen in price as more and more central banks are slowly abandoning the yellow metal as a reserve asset.

Jude wrote

The gains to be had for the whole world in formally stabilizing the dollar price of gold are so great that if we just get it at some point between $300 and $400, the adjustments would not be terribly unpleasant to anyone, even if the price were not exactly optimal.

Karlitos response:

Somewhere between $300 and $400, seems like an awfully wide margin for error, particularly when Jude just insisted that a $35 change in the price of gold set off the current chaos in asia.

Why $300, why not $3000, or maybe even $8000 as the good Mr. Puetz has forecasted? And why set the price of anything when there is a market to do it for you. This would end in tears just as attempts by central banks to peg their currencies to the US dollar also end in tears.

Given the realitve smallness of the gold market, pegging the dollar to gold would open up US monetary policy to manipulation by any central bank with large gold holdings.

Then Jude wrote:

Once anchored in this fashion, the U.S. dollar would provide a reliable monetary guide to all other national currencies.
The global financial maelstroms of the last 30 years would give way to a new century of calm, of the kind the Bank of
England provided the world in the Pax Britannica of the 19th century.

Karlitos response

The world currency system is already anchored to the dollar. We already have Pax Americana. Returning to a gold standard would do nothing to help this situation and more than likely would greatly hurt it. What is needed are market reforms, and particularly banking reforms in Asia to clean up the mess that exists there.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:28 - ID#78116)
Intolerant: Betty Ford Still Has Openings
I've tried to ignore you.... and will continue to do so.... get help man.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:31 - ID#31868)
Logic is not knowledge. And you could not possibly be more wrong about me. I gave more metal away as a message these past holidays than you might carry.

Try to do better to aggravate me.

I no longer have a need for pockets.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:34 - ID#31868)
You did but have no will, you are a jelly fish by your own admission.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:37 - ID#34592)
@ Haggis
Thank you sir for your post of 09:43. I am investigating the subject. Any help will be appreciated.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:39 - ID#288140)
Karlito said, ..."First of all the government paid the gold bugs a premium. Gold was selling at $20 an ounce and the government bought them out at $35..."

Is he correct about this? Isn't his statement backwards?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:42 - ID#372344)
With the Asian turmoil showing no signs of cooling, especially in
Indonesia a very serious problem is once again on the horizon, namely
attacks by moslem majority 90% Indonesians ( 40% wealth ) on ethnic 4% Chineese ( 60% of wealth ) as crisis deepens attacks will surely
be increasing ,as in the past in times of crisis, the 64K question is
What will China do? WAR? OR will Indonesia be forced to declare
DEBT moratorium to prevent WAR?

A report out of Hong Kong tonite shows that the economy there is
tanking Big Time, many going broke, no tourist or trade from S.E. Asia
due to high KH$, one travel agent reported one booking in the last month.
What will China do? DEVALUE? OR will she "hold off and play along with AG for about a year or so to in excchange for oh ..uh um .... let's say"peaceful" takeover of TAIWAN?

Spud Master
(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:42 - ID#273112)
I derive your intent from YOUR WORDS.

Between the two of us, I can honesty say I would be fighting the OPPRESSORS tooth and nail to protect the rights of ANYONE from the brutal thuggery of a government. That means I would be fighting to protect the lives of Jews, Buddists, Moslems, Gypsies, C++ Programmers and yes, even East Texans.

You, however, have made it clear that you COULDN'T wait to work for the totalitarians. You "know" what is best for others, it seems.

What is best for their wealth.

What is best for their lives. From their its a short trip to the killing fields. All great slaughters are paved by the seemingly perfectly rational, perfectly reasonable logic of the thugs of governments.

I can just hear the those educated, oh so reasonable words:
"Trust me, its for your own good; we're liberating your wealth so it can be productive. Please move along to the next open pit and wait for the bullet"

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:45 - ID#26669)
Spud Master re explanations:
What you do with your own time is NOOMB but IMHO trying to explain such things to a socialist is useless. I once got into a long debate with one of them as I tried to explain the parallels between the Nazi eugenics movement and the present US abortion/euthanasia movement.
That I had specific references including copies of actual Nazi euthanasia forms, copies of European and US euthanasia/abortion laws based on Nazi concepts and tracable to specific Nazi laws was irrelevent to them. IMHO

It doesn't matter what the content of the argument is, whether economic, moral, legal, religious or whatever. You cannot teach them anything. IMHO

The socialist dielectics ( Marxist, Nazi/Fascist and American Neoliberal ) just don't allow for basic concepts of individual right/responsibility/privilage. The words just don't mean anything to them. And any argument they understand becomes an endless deconstruction of your own words and meanings. IMHO

Why one would show up on in a gold chat room is a mystery to me, but I prefer to merely study them and note when they are spouting dielectic than to try to engage them.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:48 - ID#28585)
Before I went to bed last night, I promised there would be delicious news Friday for gold investors. Whether they realize it or not, gold's close below $280 along with the Dow's dramatic and complete reversal of October 97's rebound is the great news they have been waiting for.

Ever since I can remember ( but certainly not less than the last 12 years ) , I have heard a figure thrown out by gold producers time and time again. $280...$280...$280...that inconceivable price at which most major gold producers would shut down operations ( if it were ever reached ) simply because at any lower price, not only would they not generate profits but they would not be able to make basic operating payrolls.
I have had a number of frank conversations with significant mining executives over the past several years and that hypothetical price has almost always come up in conversation..."the impossible price at which we shut down, go home, and watch TV"

I believe the "capitulation" point the technicians have talked about was reached today in the gold market. According to technical theory, capitulation normally occurs upon a dramatic drop in price along with extremely high volume. However, the actual psychological capitulation point for gold producers occurred today. It is quite possible that, in today's somewhat aberrational markets where past logic does NOT hold the test of time ( the New Paradigm, as Wall Street bulls call it ) , then we witnessed the actual technical capitulation in its new contemporary disguise...a mere $2.70 drop on moderate volume. In any case, I expect to see a dramatic shift in modus operandi from gold producers from this point on. I expect they will finally "change the perception" in the market through tangible, substantive actions. From this point on, I believe we will see virtually the complete cessation of large sell forwards and the winding down of current existing gold loans on their books. Moreover, I expect CB's who wish to preserve the principal value of their gold assets ( as opposed to the loan- out value ) will effectively terminate any significant sales or loans of gold from this point on.

If you are shorting gold today, then I believe you are a either completely insane and/or have incredible balls of steel. Nothing less.

Along with today's capitulation in the gold market, I believe we simultaneouly witnessed three more auspicious phenonomena: early morning collapse of the American dollar, bond market, and equities market...the three essential components that must occur simultaneously to motivate investors to move from the purported"safe haven" of American bonds to the
genuine safe haven of precious metals. I believe the only reason the bond market rallied back in the afternoon ( thereby killing any chance for gold to remain above $280 ) is because American investors ( more so than foreign investors ) are complacent in their belief that American bonds are a safety haven. This complacency is fostered by the media, the investment community, and simple ignorance about economics.

Yet, the increasing tendency of equities, bonds, and the dollar to move in the same direction is a harbinger of what is to come. Eventually, as
foreigners begin to repatriate capital to shore up their beleaguered domestic situations, and as interest rates rise to try and stem the capital outflow and maintain the lofty level of the Almighty American dollar, then the bond market will likely collapse, thereby inspiring Americans to buy precious metals as the final and pandemic safety haven. I have called for such a stagflationary scenario to occur in this country since the early '90's. That it never occurred back then is owing to America's amazing powers of persuasion in convincing normally inflation- phobic Germany and Japan into dropping their interest rates at the same time America dropped its own, thereby generating the interest rate global recovery of this decade.

Finally, the complete reversal of equities' Oct. '97 comeback is leaving short- term equity speculators with a sick, panicky feeling. Certainly, the buy and hold group are mildly nervous...but still relatively complacent. After all, they've still made on average at least 100% on their Dow stocks since '95. However, the short- term paper speculators are going bananas. After all, the January Effect is supposed to be as natural as the Sun rising in the East. What happened?

It's called "the New Paradigm"....get used to it!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:50 - ID#398105)
Pacific Northwest Dave.............Rhodium

G'Day from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia

Rhodium is a member of the Platinum Group Elements: these include ruthenium, rhodium, palladium; and the heavier osmium, iridium and platinum. The first three have approx half the density of the latter.
These are ALL RARE.

Rhodium has excellent catalytic characteristics and provides superior properties at high temperatures when alloyed with platinum.

South Africa supplies approx 63% of the world's supply of newly mined PGE, all derived from the Bushveld Complex in the Northern Transvaal. The main South African producers are, in decreasing order of output - Rustenburg Platinum Holdings Ltd, Impala Platinum Holdings ltd, and Western Platinum Ltd.

It is my understanding that Lonrho plc are bidding for Impala?

Most, if not all, refining of PGE is undertaken by Johnson Matthey part of the Oppenheimer/Rothchild ) stable.

So, surprise, surprise, market manipulation....rhodium goes instead of platinum - at this time.

Ref: Platinum Group Element Exploration
by Prof D L Buchanan,
ISBN 0 444 42958 1
Elsevier Publications

AUSTRALIA has good but, as yet, undeveloped potential:

Geology and economics of platinum- group metals in Australia.
Hoatson- D- M; Glaser- L- M
Bureau of Mineral Resources, Geology and Geophysics. Resource Report
81 pages; 3 appx, 16 fig, 260 ref, 8 tables
PY: 1989

Platinum group elements in mafic- ultramafic rocks of the Western Gneiss Terrain,Western Australia.
Cornelius- M; Stumpfl- E- F; Gee- D; Prochaska- W
Mineralogy and Petrology
p247- 265; 8 fig, 36 ref, 5 tables

Distribution of precious metals in Precambrian basic- ultrabasic suites. Part 2:Platinum group geochemistry of the Munni Munni layered intrusion, west Pilbara Block,Western Australia.
Hoatson- D- M
Bureau of Mineral Resources, Geology and Geophysics. Record

Distribution of precious metals in Precambrian basic- ultrabasic suites. Part 1:Platinum group elements potential of layered intrusions in the Pilbara Block, WesternAustralia.
Glikson- A- Y; Sun- S- - S; Wallace- D- A
Bureau of Mineral Resources, Geology and Geophysics. Record

Potential for platinum group mineralisation in Australia: a review.
Hoatson- D- M
Bureau of Mineral Resources, Geology and Geophysics. Record
74 pages; 1 appx, 28 fig, 47 ref, 16 tables

silver plate
(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:52 - ID#289468)
1932 gold redemption
Sam: As far as i can remember gold was turned in for the $20
price and the revaluation to $35 was after the turn in.

silver plate
(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:52 - ID#289468)
1932 gold redemption
Sam: As far as i can remember gold was turned in for the $20
price and the revaluation to $35 was after the turn in.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:53 - ID#346308)
Your site, like a rare french wine, it improves with age.
Recently purchased some maple leafs from Kitco, received
excellent service. Thanks

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:54 - ID#31868)
You won't have to even think about an explanation. I will get him first. If I am lucky he will be sitting right next to Camdesuss.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:56 - ID#255284)
sam: G'day, good to see someone is on the ball. You are right, of course, and karlito has made a mistake, as we all do. I posted this the other day

"The Land of the Free_____ HA HA"
....a merry sketch of irony, blasphemy and goldbuggery.....Part 8.....
When asked his opinion on the revaluation of Gold to $35.00 from the
$20.67 that American citizens were "given" in exchange for their gold
that was previously confiscated, Senator Carter Glass replied to Roosevelt
on April 27, 1933:-
"I think it is worse than anything Ali Baba's forty thieves perpetrated."
to be continued......

I am uncomfortable with the personal abuse meeted out to Karlito. By all means challenge facts and reason, but ad hominem attacks detract from argument, and cheapen the utterrer.

Spud Master
(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:56 - ID#273112)
Karlito, totalitarian in drag...
Between the two of us, I affirm that I have, like Thomas Jefferson, declared war on tyranny in every form. This means I would be fighting to protect the lives of Jews, Moslems, Buddists, Gypsies, Gays, East Texans, and C++ programmers. I believe in freedom. Freedom from slavery in ALL its many forms. The lie that is the Federal Reserve note is just one more instance of this slavery foisted upon the people of the world. It is a crime against the US Constitution, which defines lawful money as GOLD and SILVER.

You, Karlito, on the other hand, have made it all too clear that you could not WAIT to work for the totalitarians. Join the Team. Be all that You can Be. You seem to "know" what is best for the private property and freedom of others. You are a team- player in this extended paper conspiracy to loot the wealth of the people of the world. Remora.

From taking a person's private property, it is a short step to taking their life.

I can just hear those educated, oh so reasonable lips, explaining:
"We are liberating your wealth for the Good of the State. Your sacrifice will help expand the economy and produce greater wealth. Please move to an empty pit and wait for the bullet."

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:57 - ID#26669)
Haggis You're so right!
I think in the end the debate will return to the endless protectionism versus free trade argument. And the winners will be the ones to guess which side will prevail! I saw this coming in the 1960's when we increased exporting our scrap metal and high grade steel production methods to Japan and importing more finished products.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 22:58 - ID#288140)
silver plate
Thanks. That's what I thought too.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:00 - ID#34592)
@ farfel
What about gold share mining investors like me? Throw up the towel?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:03 - ID#398105)
farfel................that wasn't FARFETCHED

I agree.

One local Aussie qualifier: Aussie dollar vs gold AU$440 ish since July, just keeps us afloat.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:03 - ID#372344)
@ Inflation/Deflation
I believe we are at the doorstep of the "threshhold of mass panic" and
It appears that my prediction of Jan 01/98 of Fed interest rate cut in
60 days or so, will come about sooner and larger rather than later and
smaller then I predicted. Estimates for growth in US continue to be downgrated almost weekly, as a result of "Asian" crisis with no end in sight for weak and battered foreign currencies ,thus equities IMHO are
at said doorstep, and I believe it will take one or so more down days like today to get us in said "threshhold". AG and other world banks will
then move swiftly to lower rates.

Should there be any doubt that "they" are INFLATING I make the
following Prediction:

US minimun wages will rise again at least $0.50 an hour this year and
for the next 3 years.

We got to get those "disposable" incomes up to buy all those cheap
Asian goods.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:04 - ID#364147)
Aurator........and Cherry Pies
G'day Mate!!- - - Thankx for the pie ( cherry was always one of my favorites ) - especially after 'electric puha'~~~~

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:04 - ID#30116)
Karlito99__A (Roosevelt Did Gold Investors a favor) Date: Fri Jan 09 1998 22:00
Karlito99__A - - Please! Why is it every stock bulls makes their case with, "If you had bought the Dow at ___ ( fill in the blank ) ... and with the Dow now at ___ ( fill in the blank ) ... you would have made a gajillion dollars!

Come on Karlito. How many people had the money and the wherewithal, or are even still alive, after all of that time??? Twenty plus percent a year for three years. That is now the expectation. The reality will be something else.

Yes, you are right about gold being in the dumper. Like all things, this to shall pass....

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:05 - ID#28594)
PacificNorthwestDave, at 22:13, I asked the same question, "What is Rhodium...
it looks like it has gone up?" And then I went to check
and found the following- - which was of great interest to me
because it explains some of the PM games that have bee/are
being played:
Date: Fri Jan 09 1998 19:09
SDRer__A ( Say it with RESPECT, RHODIUM UP $50.00
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ) ID#28098:
Rhodium races above $400/oz, highest since Aug '95: Rhodium prices built on recent strength this week, breaking sharply higher and racing above $400 an ounce to levels not seen since August 1995. -
Jan 8 1998 ( I posted the Reuters story in th 18:00/timeslot

WHat it is used for: ( I looked it up because I hadn't a CLUE
alloying agent to harden platinum and palladium. Such alloys are used for
furnace windings, thermocouple elements,
bushings for glass fibre production, electrodes for aircraft spark plugs, and laboratory crucibles
used as an electrical contact material as it has a low electrical resistance,
a low and stable contact resistance, and is highly resistant to corrosion
plated rhodium produced by electroplating or evaporation is exceptionally
hard and is used for optical instruments
used for jewellery; industrial catalyst; rhodium is used as part of the catalytic system in car catalytic converters,

But The Very Most Important- - indeed one might say CRITICAL- -
use of Rhodium, and the use that made it jump almost $50 in a day

IT AS THE DOLLAR DENOMINATED ITEM IN A NON- DELIVERABLE CURRENCY OPTION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:06 - ID#28585)
Myrmidon....stick with the major and medium producers...throw out the rest...because they may not make it. Also, if you are invested in a medium producer, make sure they already have taken their bitter medicine, i.e., they have announced the necessary write- downs of their major ( unsustainable ) mines.

The small producers and the "exploration outfits with no production" can only hope to survive through mergers or acquisitions. Although consolidation seems to be in the works, there is no guarantee a Barrick or Newmont will come around and buy these little companies.


(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:07 - ID#252127)
Ted @ Startling Confessions

Happy to hear the little bird is still clucking. Seems that the new masters are teaching the Hong Kongers some new tricks.
Hope the sawmill in Maine provides you with a quality product. Where is the new place going to rise. I assume Maine?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:10 - ID#288140)
aurator: Thanks, G'Day to you. I don't get to contribute anything useful here because I don't have PM expertise. So here's something totally useless: I can make small dent in a Maple Leaf by pressing with the edge of my thumbnail but can't do it to a Kruggerand.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:10 - ID#398105)

You really cannot sell out at this time. If you do, you right the capital loss off against tax. The only alternative is to bite the bullet and stay in there. Gold stocks have not been "good" for the last 6 to 12 months - it has been very painful, we have had our recession!

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:11 - ID#34592)
@ farfel
I wrote to the CEO's of 11 mining companies - those companies that I am invested - for what we discussed a few evenings ago. I know what they are going to do with my letter, ... at least I took action.

In an earlier post I mention the companies.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:11 - ID#364147)
JACK........and where I'm goin
The most remote piece of oceanfront land on Swan's Island Maine ( our property is eight miles from mainland USA ) ......

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:13 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Breton
Can anyone 'out there' beat this weather: CAPE BRETON.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:16 - ID#364147)
Aurator....and Hunter S. Thompson
Another one of me role models in 'life'~~~~~~

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:20 - ID#270235)
Karlito and the gold standard: Quit getting your history from Louis Rukeyser
Hear are the facts: In April 1933 Roosevelt took the U.S. off the full
gold standard which involved calling in the circulating gold coins. At
that time gold was offically valued at $20.67 per oz. which is what the
Treasury paid. In January 1934 Roosevelt raised the price of gold to
$35.00 per oz. Notice the theft involved here. The public was paid
$20.67 per oz. and then later the government devalued those dollars
by raising the price of gold. Of course this devaluation allowed the
Fed to engineer a massive increase in the money supply which caused prices to start rising further expropriating those people who were patriotic enough to turn in their gold. The new inflation was of course
stopped by the Fed in 1937 thus engineering a return to depression conditions which were not alleviated until war broke out in 1939.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:20 - ID#255284)
They also surf who only stand on waves

sam: that's because a maple is 9999 pure. Krands are alloyed and therefore harder.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:21 - ID#28594)
Haggis at 22:50: Sir, your knowledge is truly awesome, and it
rather incredible that one as ignorant as I can gain almost
immediate information from one as knowledgable as you.

Had I seen your remarkable post, I would not have reposted.
But, I didn't, so I did...sorry.

Incidently, my Mother was born in Scotland, never carried
an American passport, never became an American citizen...
remained a very grande ( and game ) Scot till the day she died.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:21 - ID#222167)
I just finished watching the local news. They said that financial experts tell them that it is best not to panic when the stock market takes a dive.

I thought I would pass that along, knowing you all will sleep better knowing that.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:25 - ID#364147)
Puetz.................and dips
Steve: Buy the 'dips'~~~~~~

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:31 - ID#222167)
Ted: They must broadcast the local- news all the way up to the Cape! Are the dipsters following the mantra?

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:37 - ID#257148)
Just stay calm now ((as I drop this liferaft over the side))---

Ted Pies- R- Us

Puetz: Yeah, the don't panic message for Monday. Have you noticed in this brand new Kitco ( thanks Bart ) the Up arrows are "GO" green but the down arrows are not "Danger red", but "Don't Panic Pink"?


(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:38 - ID#270235)
Neophyte: Re your question.
The 8,000 tons is his estimate for the cumulative outstanding gold loans.
It includes not just 1997 but the cumulative total presently outstanding.
Remember that gold has been in supply deficit since 1991 i.e. mine and
scrap supply has been exceeded by fabrication demand ( jewelery ) . The loans are primarily to producers who forward sell to lock in a price for
their production and speculators who short sell in hopes of buying the
gold back at a lower price.
To reiterate the 8,000 tons includes gold loans for all years still outstanding.

I suspect the 600 ton figure may be low.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:44 - ID#401183)
Goldbugs, let's facilitate this demise in paper fiat monetary exchange!
Everyone buys one ounce of GOLD next week!
Everybody! Let us unite to make them bleed!
Let CNN cover the events.

(Fri Jan 09 1998 23:47 - ID#426220)
Attention farfel
farfel: When you have a chance I would like to chat with you about something. Pls email