Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:00 - ID#227238)
Karlito99: In the interim, you may publish all you wish regarding the "Optimum Price of Gold". In the end, none of us on this site will determine the outcome. Rather, that will be accomplished by countless millions of people doing nothing more than their best to determine the future course of their lives. ....... And by so doing, tell us, in no uncertain terms, what that price is to be.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:00 - ID#398105)

Thanks very much, but i tend to stick to my field.

I am a Professional Geologist - Exploration, Development and Mining.

The Scot - wha's like us!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:03 - ID#284255)
DOWn next week.
Steve Puetz
I am of the same mind as you as towards next weeks action.
My S& P puts are doing very well.
But I will be quick to reserve, if the PPT come out like last time.
They pushed the prem from - 30 up to +35.
I have a belief that they will try to do this again.
Whether they suceed this time is another question.
From my T/A I see this wave- oscillation as being of a larger nature than the preceeding one.
The depth of movement and the breadth of time are of an larger nature.
The ratio's of up/down vol at close were the worst that I have seen.
The internals were truly disgusting for a mere 222 pt drop.

Have you bought you insurance yet - "PUTS"
You should have bought some for your silver position.
Nothing quite like insurance esp. when you need it.
Plus it can well pay handsome dividends.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:08 - ID#390249)
DEJ - CB gold loans
Thanks for your reply. I agree 600 tons seems low - very low. Based on what I've read, I thought last year made up a big chunk of the cumulative gold loans.

Bill El Zebub
(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:09 - ID#261352)
Rhodium?Can someone please name the majors?
Thank you.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:11 - ID#252127)
The other day I suggested to 'farfel' that the Mining Cos. pay their workers partially in gold

While the idea is OK, the darn governments will tax the hell out of the workers on their ( almost surely ) to be won profits.
Better yet. Under the following assumption.
Say a miner makes $1000 weekly, the producer cuts his paper dollar salary to $800 and deposits $200 worth of fungible gold in a hidden account.
Conclusion: You have to level the playing field.
Go for the JUGGLER farfel.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:16 - ID#57232)
Rhodium Uses
SDRer: I think the following web site may be of interest. I think the key uses may be the following:

1 ) Car catalytic converters - - Rhodium has properties similar to platinum and palladium - - so my guess is that it might serve as a substitute during shortages of same.

2 ) Optical coatings - - Very hard surfaces for optical instruments. Lasers, perhaps? Anything where optical coatings - - antireflective quarter wavelength surfaces, or in much thicker layers - - probably for the creation of surface mirrors. I do know that methods of coating optics such as the above applications are highly specialized, and the properties of the metal coating may have unique applications. I cannot tell you what specific optical application rhodium might be used for, but I could guess that for certain very expensive specialized optical devices, it is quite possible that there might be no substitute. One possible example might be a high- powered laser, where rhodium surface coatings might be critical for the laser to work without vaporizing its own optics.

3 ) Brilliant protective rhodium coatings for white gold jewelry.

4 ) Fuel cells? any element capable of catlaytic action would be a candidate for such an aplication, although I could find now reference in a quick search. C/chem/web- elements/nofr- uses/Rh.html

Sorry - - this web site does not work - - I cannot see why

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:19 - ID#34592)
@ Jack

Even if they paid the miner partially in gold, the companies lose that revenue from gold.

And why should the miner accept it? He can buy gold in the free market, unless of course he wants to subsidize his company.

It will not work Jack.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:21 - ID#174103)
The Economic Jungle
There seem to be many species of fiatus currencicus.
No one has ever spotted a fiatus debtus.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:24 - ID#398105)

G'Day Mate,

At this time ( today ) does the USA have : inflation, deflation, or the perfect economy. Which one?

Where is the USA economy headed: inflation, deflation, or the perfect economy.

According to Greenspan, today you do not have inflation, but have possible future deflation. This infers that today you have the perfect economy. Your "Pax Americana".

Now, I may be a wee bit slow here but your NATIONAL DEBT today is $5,479,700,204,736.38 ( that is impressive ) , which would tend to suggest to a normal person that there is a problem, you do not have the perfect economy, and you do not have "Pax Americana".

So, someone has been eating Pork Pies - telling lies!

I would suggest that in the Asian vs American Banks transations, that legal agreements would have been put in place to accepted and agreed standards. So, in relation to the Asian Banks "getting their act cleaned up", do you really mean "getting cleaned up" by the American Banks at basement prices?

Pax Americana should give "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers - economic change and military conflict from 1500 to 2000" by Paul Kennedy ( Yale Uni ) , Fortuna Press. The difference between the Brits at the turn of the Century and the Yanks today, it that the Brits could then afford what they did. Are you suggesting that the Yanks are now declaring economic war on Asia ( including Japan and China ) - if you did it would make sense as to what is happening. I would hope that it is not the scenario. I would prefer to think that it is Wall Street Fund Managers running amok, then regulation could be imposed on the derivatives market to achieve a balance in international trade. Better still, gold taking a role in international trade - as it does anyway in oil transactions.

Pax made that one up, you devil. By all means explore your dreams. Interesting results can be obtained through psychotropic drugs and repressed thoughts. Remember your dreams - take them strictly literally, because nobody else will. Sleep well......................

Aye, Haggis

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:25 - ID#57232)
Stocks hammered ahead of Earnings reports
All: Here is one facet of the mood of the market - - pending poor earnings reports. Apparently the first look at earnings post- SEAsia crisis will be next week. I don't know which company earnings reports will be reported next week, but one wonders if some advance notice rumors leaked out.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:31 - ID#398105)
no worries, she'll be right, see ya later................aye

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:32 - ID#257148)
A minor profit

Ever mindful, as I am, that this glorious site is hosted in Canada by Canadians and is frequented by many who live in Canada, some of whom may be Canadians, and some who may not be sure.

As a public service to "MY FELLOW CANADIANS" may I humbly present this site that will help you answer the perplexing question, "Am I a Canadian?"


(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:32 - ID#177109)
Cap'n Bill Buckler
Your recent post includes the following sentence: "And speaking of "Deflation", on a weekly basis, the Dow has closed BELOW its 200 day MA for the first time since December 1994." I think you mean that this is the first time the DJIA has closed below the daily 200 bar moving average on a Friday since whenever. True, but it has done so on a Monday, a Wednesday, and a Thursday in recent months. Why is it more deflationary to have closed below the 200 dma on a Friday than on any other other three days of the week? Or is this "Official Deflation Week" and therefore a close below the 200 dma this week is more "meaningful?" At first I thought you were referring to deflation in the sense of declining year- over- year CPI or PPI. But I checked the numbers and find they are up year- over- year. So I am guessing that the use of deflation in this context refers to the fact that the price of the DJIA declined or deflated. Or could it be that there is a general misunderstanding of the term deflation as used in economics, since the word seems to be bandied about a great deal lately in novel contexts? Or again is it merely trendy usage of a newly liberated word which is an eye and mind grabber? As when the "F" word became "OK" and was suddenly used in nearly every sentence. Now we no longer have to refer to the "D" word or look over the shoulder and lower our voices? Now we can simply blurt it out: DEFLATION! And feel oh so much better and wiser.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:34 - ID#34592)
@ Haggis
Thanks for the National debt URL. You are a source of info.

I devided the national US debt of $5,479,700,204,736 by 260,000,000 ( approximate US population ) and come out with $2,107 per person.

This appears low since I have heard numbers as high as $20,000 per person.

Where am I going wrong? My computer drops zeroes?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:40 - ID#252127)
Myrmidon....I can dream, can't I

Under the assumption that labor costs are at least half total costs including taxes and coffee machines, the thought may take 10% of the gold produced out of supply ( this means the practice would have to be widespread ) . While everthing is a gamble, it may add some ump to the gold price.
You're right that industry and labor will never see eye to eye regarding such co- operation.
I think the plan would work in Japan, but they ain"t got any gold and don't mine enough.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:43 - ID#57232)
America -- It's the only America we have!
Haggis: Our newsmedia is now controlled by a few large corporations, and the news that we see has been extensively filtered. Fortunately there are a few among us who are determined enough to use the net to glean the truth. America clearly has problems because it does not accurately see itself and the rest of the world - - probably in some ways this is the way we have always been - - big enough not to really be interested in what happens outside our walls. I am a loyal American, proud of our heritage, but I also see our problems and I hope that we will mend our ways without too much turbulence. I hope that we ( as a world ) will recover from our financial problems without too much disruption. I know we ( as a world people ) have the stars at our fingertips - - I have seen fragments of a fledgling technology that will allow us to do this in our generation. But - - it requires a stable world economic system with the resources to spend.

I am less worried about SE ASia than I am about the US and Europe where we have forgotten much about self sufficiency, and the need for preservation of hard assets. If hardship comes, we will be less able to handle it as a people. On the other hand, I admire the independence and self sufficiency of the average rural American. You will find that these individuals are very much like yourself. Have you visited Salt Lake city, or North Dakota?

We have our problems, but as one of the German Chancellors said ( not exact words ) : "We have our difficulties with our American colleagues, but they are the only Americans we have".

I hope we still have some friends in SEAsia after all of the commotion dies down.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:46 - ID#284255)
Full moon rising.
The current ping is expanding expotentially.
Like wise the global lock- step of the markets.
Likewise the lock- step of the shares and indices that make up the US markets.
Everything is falling into a very negative aspect.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:49 - ID#401460)
You lost a place. You have to be carefull with some of these calculators, my MAC has one built in that allows for the larger calculations. I just noticed it put an E in the 5 trillion.

I useed a designer calculator once in a post of a bunch of numbers and really messed up.


(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:52 - ID#34592)
@ Jack

Now, if the mining companies suggested to the miners a 20% salary cut in exchange of 10 year stock options, this may work. The miner takes a risk for something he cannot buy ib the open market.

If I was a miner making $50,000 and my company offered me $40,000 and the remaining $10,000 in stock options I will consider.

Example: Homestake is trading around $8. Offer instead of paying $10,000
an option to get 1,000 shares at $12 up to the year 2008. Then I have to make the choice:

Lose my job, or accept the offer.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:53 - ID#411233)
Canada, greatest country in the world. Where else do you get 10 months
of winter, and 2 months of poor sledding? Hell, give us a couple of cases
of beer, some back bacon frying in the pan, and a good hockey game
on the tube, and were happier than a pig in shit!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:58 - ID#284255)
Gee, if only I had more insurance.
My swing chart has just issued a sell signal.
Interesting to note the tops since april.
They have been decreasing in time and breadth with each wave.
The last wave has been produced as a sort of whipsaw.
Given that we have just entered a sell signal.
It is going to take a lot of manipulation to whipsaw it back up this coming week.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:58 - ID#248180)
Rhoduim & Rare Earth Metal
If Rodium has had such a strong upward movement in price and demand;
What are other Rare Earth metals doing? I recall some years ago a group of Australians trying to get a Rare Earth Plant up and running in South Australia, without much financial backin in the late 80's and early 90's.
The concensus at the time was - low demand, dropping prices, and that China was flooding and controlling the market to some extent. I would be most grateful for and informed responce.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 00:59 - ID#177109)
sleepless in the southland
could it be that i am really a canadian since i instinctively checked snow shoes and hockey even though i live in the u.s. desert southwest? freeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee at last?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:00 - ID#34592)
@ Haggis
Absolutely right. $21,076 of debt corresponding to each US citizen.

What is Karlito's solution to this number? make it $40,000 in the next 10 years?

Haggis, how this per capita debt compares to other countries? Any numbers for Kitco members to be educated?

Big Time Tom
(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:01 - ID#212320)
Karlito's specious reasoning

Hi Karlito. In support of your contention that Roosevelt did the people a favor by confiscating their Gold, you wrote:

"Secondly, by forcing gold bugs to invest in the paper economy, Roosevelt put them in at the bottom of the market. Had gold bugs held their gold, their $35 worth of gold today would be worth $280.

"But by forcing them into the stock market, then trading at 96, gold bugs made a killing. Instead of getting an 8 fold gain in their investment ( 280/35 ) they got nearly an 80 fold gain ( 7600/96 ) . We all should be so exploited!"

Such reasoning strikes me as specious for several reasons. First, every ounce of gold that Roosevelt confiscated back in the 30's is one that someone could have sold for $850 on January 21, 1980 ( when the DOW was still under 1000 ) . It is also an ounce that someone could have sold at this higher price and then have reinvested in the stock market for a 17 year mother of all bulls. It is also an ounce the proceeds from which one could again have reinvested, after the 17 year stock market bull, at the bottom of a gold bear market. If this is what you call "doing people a favor," then please, please don't ever do me any favors!

Second, at its best, your reasoning above establishes only a very trivial and uninteresting point, namely this: If we compare two equal long term investments, one in gold at $20 an ounce and one in the Dow trading at 96 ( ignoring the fact that the components of the DOW have changed ) , the stock investment would have been better as of today. That is, the stock investment would have been better at a frozen instant of time when the Dow is ( still ) near the top of a speculative bubble and gold is near the bottom of a bear market. But this tells us nothing about which investment would be better at some other frozen instant of time, either in the past or the future. It does not tell us which would have been better, for example, for someone liquidating on January 21, 1980, nor does it tell us which will turn out to have been better for someone liquidating in, say, 2001.

Third, the 80 fold vs. 8 fold gain of which you speak may, for all I know, be a good reason for selling stocks and buying gold. Consider early 1980 when gold was near the top of a speculative bubble and the DOW still in a bear market. At that time gold would have been the better long term investment for someone liquidating at that time, and yet this was just the time to sell gold and buy stocks. So why not do just the reverse today? Why not sell stocks and buy gold?

- Tom

Note: The above is not a recommendation. I am no economist and no expert on financial matters. My aim here was merely to examine a specious piece of reasoning.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:02 - ID#252127)

fiatus debtus: A new strain of virus exposed by the highly trained - economists of truth- at Kitco.
However, world governments prefer to keep this killer and those that feed off it in high esteem at the expense of their populace.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:02 - ID#57232)
Are you still out there?
sharefin: I think we are in the middle of the "second ping". What makes me think that next week will be more of the same is that the DOW has been steadily dropping at a more and more rapid rate on a five- day intraday chart. I see no evidence of those suspicious v- formations. If the PPT steps in on monday, they will have to expend a bundle of resources, and the v- formation this time will be sharp enough to cut virtally anything!

I think the average American still thinks little is wrong, but more and more are starting to watch the news. What is likely to be the trigger next week is not the average American investor, but all those professionals with hair- triggers who will immediately sell - - like clockwork - - any stocks that have lower actual earnings than the predictions of the predictors. I have seen this pattern now for several years, and it is a ruthless ritual where any long- term aspects to a buy/sell decision seem to be ignored.

It is very clear that the precious metals stocks ( and gold ) are going to get hammered until the market stops falling. By the way, I bought some puts on the Mexican stock index. This is much more likely to drop alot farther and faster than the US indices. Most of my money is parked in short- term treasuries, wait for the equities to bottom, and for the gold stocks to awaken. The Xau is now at 63.65, and Barrick is at 15.8. I think farfel ( or was it Haggis ) that said we should stick with the majors, or at least active low cost gold producers. The others might not weather the storm that has been unleashed. I wonder what Pierre Lassonde is doing with Franco Nevada and Euro Nevada. I think these companies may actually be better run than American Barrick.

Don't forget your hard hat for monday! The market may not be the only thing that falls!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:08 - ID#286230)
Gold Confiscation
Anybody know how much gold the US Gov confiscated during the '30's?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:12 - ID#284255)
The ping is only just starting to expand - watch out.
I think many will be amazed at what is to happen in the first three days next week.
I expect that as in past crashs that we will fall totally, on one given day.
I hope the PPT have deep pockets.

Capitulation to come soon to a stock exchange close to you.

Better put a pillow under the hard hat.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:12 - ID#238422)
Karlito, if US$ drops in relation to yen,
will price of gold ( in US$ ) increase?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:13 - ID#57232)
Just got your post on the second ping!
sharefin: Thanks for your updated swing chart. I wonder - - have a look at the bottom on 8/14/97. The bottom in October is about nine weeks later. Our current bottom would be right now, if the cycle is maintained. I realize this is not a fibonacci cycle - - 0.618, etc, but sometimes cycles repeat directly. If you give me again the formula for your swing chart I can try the wavelet analysis program I have to decipher any patterns. I am still new at this stuff, but I may give some useful information similar to the Elliot wave/fibonacci/Gann type guys, but from a slightly different perspective.

Best wishes, JTF

(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:20 - ID#284255)
swing chart data
Check your email - incoming

(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:24 - ID#34592)
National debt
Gentlemen, don't laugh...

A better, lower risk speculation would be to buy calls on the National Debt ( striking price $7 trillion, year 2,000 ) as soon as they are available.

Bill Buckler
(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:27 - ID#257234)
Deflation and the 200 Day MA on the WEEKLY Dow chart
Aurophile ( 00:32 ) As pointed out both on my posting at on the chart at my website, the chart is a WEEKLY ( semi- log ) bar chart. My point is simply that the weekly bar closed below the 200 Day MA - for the first time since December 1994.

I didn't say that the weekly moves had not gone below the MA, they have. But they have not closed for the week below it. I regard this as highly significant. Other penetrations of the MA proved to be "false alarms". This one may too, but the fact that the weekly bar has now closed below the MA for the first time in three years tells me that it is something to be taken very seriously.

Re Deflation. It was Mr Greenspan who equated falling equity prices with deflation. If you apply a sane econcomic definition to the term, that is, deflation being a decrease in the total stock of money, then we don't have to worry about it. A cursory glance at U.S. money supply numbers and their ongoing acceleration shows that clearly.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:29 - ID#177109)
@ selby
I have scanned several books on the FDR imperial reign and cannot find any mention of the actual amount of gold seized. I'll look into it further tomorrow. One little known fact is that the rumor of going off gold leaked out before FDR's coronation, and people began withdrawing gold from the banks as they had every right to do. As soon as he was in power he issued a decree requiring citizens to report to the US Gov't how much gold they held upon penalty of large fines and imprisonment. This was because they felt intially that they couldn't legally seize the gold but could intimidate the populace. Of course they soon found another decree left over from WW I which they used to do the deed. I shall report further, sir.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:31 - ID#57232)
Hidden cycles in the market -- goodnite everyone!
All: I find these hidden cycles in the market fascinating! The wave function of an elementary particle is almost zero virtually everywhere in the universe, except where it is supposed to be. I sense a similar process in the markets - - that complex multiple cycles are present - - interacting "destructively" most of the time, so that the market "signal" is zero most of the time. But - - every so often we get what sharefin calls a "ping" - - and we have constructive interfernce and a peak suddenly appears. Something else I hope to have time to look at is the mathematics of what is called a "phase change". Eg the transition from liquid to solid, or critical opalescence.

My suspicion is that in actuality the information to predict that single ping is hidden in the market - - and potentially extractable by the right cycle ( time series ) analysis program. Once the second ping is present, the third is easy to predict with fibonacci - type analysis. But a much more powerful technique would be what I describe, because it would work on the first "ping".

I would also guess that the commodities market would be an excellent place to test such a model once it had been developed, as sudden massive swings are the hallmarks of the commodities market.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:32 - ID#252127)
Selby; I wish someone had the answer

Interesting question.
It been said that the big players transfered their booty overseas before the fact and got the full $35, perhaps some may have sold in Canada.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:34 - ID#286230)
Aurophile: I await your post. I faintly remember this from high school about 40 years ago but I have heard what effect the law had.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:34 - ID#252150)
Fundammentalist re: your 090202
You have to be kidding. Do you think I would post something so innocuous as a bank robber getting shot in Miami. Sh!t we have bank robbers getting shot in Quebec & it does'nt even get reported in B.C. No. What made that report newsworthy was that there was no mention of a robbery. Do you think our national newspaper has enough space to report ordinary mundane U.S. bank robberies? I would have to assume that the motorist was double parked so that his wife/girlfriend or whoever could make a quick trip into the bank, the security guard came along , an altercation occured & the security guard blew him away.

Bill Buckler
(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:36 - ID#257234)
URL doesn't work
Thank you to the posters who responded to my post and to The Privateer website. Unfortunately, you had the same problem posting the URL that I had when I attempted to do it in the first place.

There is a hyphen in my url and when I posted it to Kitco, the form insisted on leaving a space between the hyphen and the second word of the URL ( after the www. ) . The space rendered the URL unreadable.

Out of interest, I included my url in the subject line of the form. It works there but it doesn't work in the body of the message. Don't know why this is, Bart, it's a new one on me

For the record, The Privteer's URL is ( see, it did it again )


(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:37 - ID#28594)
JTF, Thank you for the Rhodium look-up, but my interest in Rhodium
was violent and short- lived: if you caught the first of my post ( 18/2100 slot ) I wondered what it was because my sub- con said "Hey, hasn't that gone waaaaay up?", lazily,I first asked the board;impatiently I next find the chemist in UK's site and discovered 'what' it was; curiously, I dashed to Yahoo business to find why it had jumped ( if it had jumped ) ;
triumphantly, I discovered the answer to a riddle I'd been working
on for weeks ( about another metal and Non- deliverable exotic currency options ) . So I got very carried away my friend. And my interest
in Rhodium, like a teen- age crush, has waned. But I really do
thank you for being so darned nice. I hope the Mexican puts put you
wherever in the world you want to be! Thanks again.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:46 - ID#153111)
Haggis: America can do anything
Your talking about America, we can have all three inflation, deflation, and an economy ticking like a well oil clock even with out shaking down the world's capitol markets. We only allow foreigners to buy our US debt as a favor to them!

Hey someone recommended that the government conficate US Bonds from US citizens, I don't think that would be legal. I'm sure there are certain standards even Washington must follow

(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:46 - ID#177109)
Bill Buckler: weekly close below 200 dma.
I have never seen a weekly close on a daily chart singled out, by colors or otherwise, as being of particular significance. I am, of course, aware that many portfolio managers otherwise uninterested in technical analysis are watchers of the 200 dma. If the DJIA stays below the averge for some period of time these managers may decide to sell. On the other hand, many
other technically- orientated traders are familiar with this tendency and "fade it" regularly, which is why the average is often found to provide support.
Regardless, I do not see why this event is mentioned in the same sentence with the "D" word.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:49 - ID#287305)
Mymidon, Haggis
Re: National Debt
The 5.5 trillion number is a gross distortion of the actual debt. The government has been playing with these numbers for many years and have become quite adept at hiding debt.

Consider this, Medicare and Social Security have been removed as items from the budget. There are a large number of these off- budget items which
do not appear in the offical budget.

There are a large number of analysts who place the debt as high as 20 trillion when these off- budget items are included. That is a hell of a lot more than $20,000 per head.

There is no way in hell this debt will ever be repaid and the politicians know it. We have long since passed the point of ever retiring the national debt.

The game is now short term "pain avoidance" and deferring these problems to others at some ambiguous point in the future.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:51 - ID#34592)

Who decided on the 200 day Mov. avrg.? Why not the 180, or 240? Is it because it is a round number or is it derived from mathematical analysis. Or, it is something which was experimentally verified and it seems to work.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:58 - ID#401460)
Rig count down 13
HOUSTON ( AP ) - The number of oil and gas rigs operating nationwide dropped by 13 to 990 this week, Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday.

There were 825 rigs operating in the United States during the same week last year.

We will want to watch this number for a slow down in demand - deflation etc.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:59 - ID#177109)
William Gordon's "Stock MarketIndicators", 1968, claimed that of all the moving average periods the 40 week or 200 day ma was the most useful in studies he did on the DJIA from 1897 to 1967. It seems arbitrary but caught on probably because of a fortuitous crossover in 1968 after his book ame out.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 10 1998 01:59 - ID#24140)
historical gold reserves
To Aurophile

Im very curious about national gold holdings in

various countries in the period between the 1st and 2nd

world Wars - Ie US, England, Germany, France, Japan.

Do you or anyone else have any idea where I can find

the information?.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:01 - ID#34592)
@ all
I am most grateful for all you kind people who take the time to answer dumb questions like mine. Suggest that all educational institutions who offer economic courses, make this site "MANDATORY READING" to their students. Thank you.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:04 - ID#177109)
@ John Disney
I think there is a chart on national gold holdings in that era in Martin Armstrong's "The Greatest Bull market in History" which is now available on his site.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:06 - ID#28594)
Before I say 'good night', I want to share this--cause I think it ranks
high in that difficult category of "the perfect put- down".
I share it with the caveat that it is part of a family
rivarly between the two professions mentioned, doctor and lawyer.
You may judge for yourselves who 'won' this round!
Q: "Doctor, before you performed the autopsy, did you check for a
A: "No."
Q: "Did you check for blood pressure?"
A: "No."
Q: "Did you check for breathing?"
A: "No."
Q: "So, then it is possible that the patient was alive when you
began the
A: "No."
Q: "How can you be so sure, Doctor?"
A: "Because his brain was sitting on my desk in a jar."
Q: "But could the patient have still been alive nevertheless?"
A: "It is possible that he could have been alive and practicing law


(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:09 - ID#177109)
Do you know where there is a listing of the historical rig counts or a chart? Would be very appreciative of any info. I went to the Baker- Hughes site once but couldn't find anything and couldn't get through their corporate telephone maze. I have a feeling that the rig count may be one of the very best indicators of the economic long wave cycle.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:11 - ID#401460)
Oracle, the world's second- largest software company.....
``Everything is a comparison problem right now,'' Ellison said. ``Asia was growing at 50 percent for us as recently as a year ago
and now it has gone from 50 percent to negative. It has hurt us, but it's hurt everybody.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:12 - ID#24140)
Korean Foreign Debt
To All

Why doesnt Korea insist on paying its debt to banks either

in freshly printed Korean long tern bonds paying the same

interest as similar US instruments or even freshly printed

cash ( perferably with the ink dried ) - thats what the US

has been doing. The US plays with a stacked deck. It they can

use THEIR instruments as international reserves then why cant

any country??

Same goes for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Phillipines.

Take matter to UN - "Racist foreign reserves" or

"Colonialist Bankers" - Im sure there's a slogan there


(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:13 - ID#255284)
Index is not just a finger....

How's the D.T.T.I. looking these days?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:20 - ID#177109)
Down The Tubes Index
Auraytor: Incredibly the DTTI remains in an extended bull market since early 1995. Bonds continue to go up, the yen and CRB down, and gold, er, well...... No deflation in the DTTI, although some would say its very success could lead to deflation as the "yen carry" becomes the "everything carry" and as everything in the world gets borrowed and sold and the proceeds put into Tbonds.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:23 - ID#24140)
Karlita - Kayser Soyse ??? Can it be TRUE
I hate to see such a fine bunch of guys waste time

with Karlita. He/she/it is paid to do this and works

full time at it -

Do you SERIOUSLY think karlita will be converted

from the "statist" view point ?? you're dreaming -

From the onset of the creature's arrival, I inquired

politely ( at that stage ) WHAT was its ( ? ) interest in

this site?? I inquired again several times - I never

got a response to that question.

Dont waste your time - do something usefull.

See a movie - I saw "LA Confidential" - very good but

Kevin Spacey is still playing Virgil Kent from "usual

suspects" ( he cant seem to shake the role ) .

Maybe Karlita is Kayser Soyse.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:23 - ID#401460)
I hope this will help, all I have right now.

Scroll down to Oil & Gas

Good Night,

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:24 - ID#398105)

I am seeing things, or do the DOW and FTSE "appear" to be turning DOWN?

NO, the Nikkei and Hang Seng MUST be wrong!

OH DEAR!!!!!!!!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:25 - ID#315256)
@ Sharefin............Puts/ shmutz
Hey Nick, no I havn't purchased Puts on Silver. I don't invest in extremely speculative short term instruments. Had I been following this "insurance" plan you and Puetz keep chattin about, namely S& P Put options, I'd have been broke long ago.

I'll holf my Silver long till I decide the profit margin is high enough. Right now it stands at 33% gain over my buy price, so I'm not exactly panicky over the action of the last 2 days. When and if it gets to "break even" ...I STILL won't regret not buying "Puts".

All you get with "Puts" in my opnion, is the enrichment of the folks to whom you pay the huge premiums and spread, especially in metals options.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:25 - ID#398105)

I am seeing things, or do the DOW and FTSE "appear" to be turning DOWN?

NO, the Nikkei and Hang Seng MUST be wrong!

OH DEAR!!!!!!!!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:29 - ID#398105)
John Disney - korean and US Banks/Proxies

"I would suggest that in the Asian vs American Banks transactions, that
legal agreements would have been put in place to accepted and agreed
standards. So, in relation to the Asian Banks "getting their act cleaned
up", do you really mean "getting cleaned up" by the American Banks at
basement prices?"

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:36 - ID#177109)
Thank you very much. Baker Hughes merged the rig count info into their corporate website which I found through your Yahoo link.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:36 - ID#252150)
Karlito @ re:gold confiscation
You blew it man! You just proved that you are an articulate incompetent.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:37 - ID#398105)
A thought........

Is Karlito the "modern day" equivalent of the "obscene phone caller".

You can always tell by the harsh, shallow breathing......

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:38 - ID#255284)
There's conspiracy theories & there's buried treasure-----

Patti Ted ALL


the keys to the treasure or just another wild goose ( sorry A. Goose ) chase?


(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:40 - ID#315256)
@ Haggis
Just read back and saw your question. As to the Asina markets being ripe for a play, maybe with balls of steel, but personally, the uncertainty that is attached to any play in the Asian markets is too high for my taste. They havn't been market economies long enough to be predictable.

I see the current situation as a good opportunity to watch the DOW drop over the next 2 to 3 quarters, after which I'll start averaging back in at the level of perhaps 6300- 6700 or so. I'm not young enough to make wildly speculative plays at this point, but the U.S. economy and dollar are SO incredibly strong and stable, that I think the U.S. is the safest LONG TERM play if one can buy in at a nicely reduced price. That';s my strategy. Meanwhile, dollars, SIlver, and Platinum are fine! ( Though Platinum has been the one dog in my portfolio so far..going back years! )

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:43 - ID#34592)
@ aurophile
I don't see how the rig count will forecast economic activity. It is similar to looking at steel production of Bethlehem, USX, and Inland Steel.

The closing is due to cheaper foreign supplies of oil.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:47 - ID#177109)
gold seizure
I just caught up on some earlier chat. The gold was seized by H.I.M. F.D.R. in 1933 and paid at $20.67 and THEN in 1934 the price was set at $35. The famous rationale was that speculators not benefit from this patriotic move.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:49 - ID#315256)
@ Haggis, Spud, Tol, farf, Eldor, et al
Let's see now, Karlito is a Obscene phone caller, a Stalinist, a Nazi, a socialist, and those are only the printable terms for him eh?

I gotta say, this site is really amazing. I guess if you have genuine credentials and an analytical mind, you're good fodder for viscous attack here. Some Putz earlier said I was out of line calling Spudbuster on the carpet. Seems to me that Karlito posts well reasoned thoughts on why Gold has dropped, and why he has a different perspective than the "bugs". For this he is slurred with every viscious name in the book by a bunch of whacko survivalist gun nut's whom no one should ever feel comfortable allowing around their children.

Spud, Tol, Timothy McVeigh is your hero so you might want to tone down the rhetoric and address some of teh issues that Karlito has brought up. he after all, has an edeucation, and is far more articulate. Quit using the typical cowardly tactics of the ultra liberal left ( attack the messenger instead of the message ) and try a little objective reasoning for a change.

Sure I've thrown a few barbs on this forum, I admit it freely. What I'm sick of is the pompous, self righteous, nonsense from the GoldBugs who are quick to jump on my case for the mildest slight and yet utter NOT ONE PEEP, in respone to the garbage we've seen here in the last few hours from Spud et al. Get a clue you hypocritical Kitcoites.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:55 - ID#252150)
Rumpled@ not in Victoria
I golfed today - perfect conditions. Well... a little on the cool side,
5 degrees C & sunny.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:56 - ID#341214)
James: I was just joking. All the pieces for a bank robbery were there, which is why I made the comment to you, but I have no doubt that the incident was as you reported it.


(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:56 - ID#398105)

G'Day Mate

I think you got this part wrong...........

...... "teh issues that Karlito has brought up. he after all, has an edeucation".........

I am neither a Republican or a Democrat!

Aye, Haggis

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:56 - ID#177109)
oil rig count
Prices rise and fall with economic activity- - unless your currency is going to the moon or down the tubes- - as Mr. Kondratieff showed. It is a fairly quick and relatively unregulated process to set up an oil rig in the US or to take one down. So the rig count is very sensitive to oil prices ( priced in US$ ) . And the oil price is very sensitive to the economy despite the supposed power of OPEC.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 02:57 - ID#315256)
@ Karlito........Gold confiscation
As James mentioned, you did get one fact incorrect. The "official" U.S. Gold valuation change ocurred AFTER the confiscation not before.

Be aware that since you have made a single error out of hundreds of accurate factual points made, and are thus at shall we say a 98% accuracy rating, you now have far less credibility than Goldbugs who get 1 fact right out of each hundred.

Also, make sure you don't do nay more of that "specious" reasoning like comparing actual investment real world scenarios. It's far more reasonable to fantasize that our modern era's most crushing bear market ( Gold ) , has really been just a minor glitch and the Goldbugs are vindicated daily by a dropping DOW ( which after all, still remains at a mere 1000 percent gain in 20 years while Gold has declined to 10% of it's former buying power )

After all, you can always take an ounce of Gold to Kmart and buy a good cheap Polyester sport coat...when they're on sale.....

(Sat Jan 10 1998 03:01 - ID#401460)
Myrmidon (@ aurophile)

Just why do you think they close steel mills?
And why do you think the price of Oil is going down? Basic supply and demand! Econ 101.

And, there has been a lot of discussions on this line regarding the relationship of the price of Oil to Gold. You should read Another's and Other's post on this subject.

Good Night Again,

(Sat Jan 10 1998 03:01 - ID#315256)
@ Haggis
You're neither one? Let's hope not! You makin fun o' my frequent typos dude/ I can typo 68 mistakes per minute ya know! I never spellcheck or proof check, except when I'm doing business writing o' course, which is just about every day. SLows me down too much here....

Now don't you think youall are being a bit harsh on Karlito? And fill me in on the Republocrat joke.....Is that some kinda Scottish humor or something? ( P.S., Remeber WE Yanks whipped the Brits like a stepchild! )

(Sat Jan 10 1998 03:03 - ID#255284)
Ignore the insects..

LGB_2 Not quite true, old bean, I have said my little piece earlier in defence of argument rather than ad hominem attacks. Particularly with reference to Karlito who, better than yourself, is able to stand the slings and arrows of outrageous goldbugs.

If it makes you *feel* any better, I suggest that you absent yourself for a few days, you know, take a holiday from an abusive family. Perhaps when you return, you will not take so easy exception to some of the more extreme and obscene views expressed here. Sometimes LGB, you pay your detractors too much honour, by replying to them.

'Tis better to pass on and say nothing to the ignorant.

Now, let's have some logic, some argument, some humour, humor or homer, but, do not stoop so low....


(Sat Jan 10 1998 03:09 - ID#252150)
Disney & Haggis
Re : S.Korean banks. Cleaned up- or cleaned out....a fine distinction.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 03:12 - ID#401460)
One More Oil Note
World oil prices bump along two and half year lows
Good Article

(Sat Jan 10 1998 03:15 - ID#398105)

You forgot to mention that over that same period your NATIONAL DEBT increased by a mere 594% . That is impressive!

Does every one in the States invest on the market. Does the debt solely reside with investors or the public at large?

What really impresses me about Wall Street, is that they play HARD. They create opportunities for...cheating and crying foul even in a game of SWAPS on the gold derivatives market.......

Have you ever worked on Wall Street?

Aye, Haggis

(Sat Jan 10 1998 03:21 - ID#335184)
Best major ? & Best ? for Puetz !
Asumming that previous post speculation is correct that low Au price is devastating Jr. E & P Co.s, what is the group's pick for best low cost major to pile in to ?
Barrick- ABX ( I understand that they have substantial forward hedge position & have embarked on agressive stock repurchase & acquisition program ) ; Newmont- NEM ( does any one know if G. Soros still holds 5% of NEM ? ) ; Freeport McMoran C & G- FCX ( S & P just down graded their credit to junk for presence in Indonesia despite the fact that they mine commodities priced in US$S & their costs of production are dramatically reduced by the Indonesian Devaluation / depression ) or other ???
My preference is 1, NEM; 2, FCX 7 then 3rd ABX.

PUETZ: What is your theory behind your statement that a blow off in equities will be bullish for AU & silver ???

(Sat Jan 10 1998 03:21 - ID#398105)
aurator, LGB2 and Karlito


aurator you have got a point.

Old Scots habits die hard.........where did I put that Claymore ?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 03:30 - ID#252150)
LGB2 re: Asian mkts
I just sold my KF ( Korean Fund ) today @ a 10 % loss. I bought it last week after reading that my hero, John Templeton had taken a position in several closed end S. Korean funds. What was particularly galling was that the Korean stock mkt was up 4 days in a row but the KF kept going down. There was also a big deal made out of trip that Soros had made there & that he was considering an investment. The cynic in me realized that this PR bs was manufactured so that the big boys could sell out their earlier investments to the retail suckers. S. Korea & all of SE Asia is going to hell in A motorized handbasket.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 03:36 - ID#255284)
sorry for shouting, I really am, you know, sorry for shouting...

My apologies, sometimes I become obsessed for data, fortunately that urge disappears when something more interesting comes along ( Auric's Watch gold bounce f'rinstance ) but right now I am becoming obsessed with Crusty old Disney's Question about gold holdings between the wars ( didja see my earlier McFadden post crusty? )







apologies to william herbert shakespeare

(Sat Jan 10 1998 03:42 - ID#252150)
How many stepped up to the plate today
I bought 1k ABX today to go along with my Kinross & my BGR prec mtls. Now up to approx 20% of my portfolio in au stocks. I plan on trading ABX in whichever new trading range it establishes. If this thing blows up in my face I will be on this forum forever, haunting hard core GBs.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 03:43 - ID#286279)
Carolus Linnaeus
pdeep- This is awlfully nit- picky. Here it is anyway. When using Latin names the genus should be capitalized, the species and subspecies ( or variety ) should be lower case. The names should also be underlined but I cant demonstrate that here. Thus Fiatus currencicus americanus and Fiatus currencicus japonicus and Fiatus currencicus canadensis would be varieties of common name, Fiat Currency. I suppose their colloquial names might be American Dollar, Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar, doesn't really matter, Greenback etc. would do just as well.

A species doesnt have to be split into subspecies. If Fiatus debtus is suspected but not proven then it may be designated: [Hypothetical] Fiatus debtus. I am not positive about this last point.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 04:03 - ID#284255)
Bucketloads of puts - give me more.
The Dec puts I was holding through the Oct fall went from $100 to $2000. Not a bad rise.
I wonder how high my S& P puts are going to go this time.
Hey, if we get a crash, I'll be smiling.$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

The Silver calls I held through the last rise and sold jumped over 300% in a few weeks. Great profits.
Shame I didn't buy some silver puts, but dangerous to bet against the trend.
These highly speculative positions can be so good if played right.

Currently I'm holding heaps of OZ bank puts as well as S& P Jan puts.
Funny Money I Suppose.

For anyone interested go and have a look at NKH8 on
This code is for Nikkei futures.
Could be a profitable day coming up.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 04:09 - ID#41229)
Money Funneled into markets
A question to the board, when a gov. funnels money into the market how is it performed? Who decides what to support and who makes the transaction, who retains perchased stock?

Also, all the gold coming out of asia; wouldn't you think that it is being kept off the market to help with gold loan issues. I realize that that it wouldn't be benificial at this point to release the fact that central banks or imf is retaining the gold with all the negative hype they have been promoting in the past, also to keep the elusion of security in the bond market.

Another mentions that the price of oil will rise even when demand falls, what we have been witnessing is true market force in the oil with prices falling, if there is actually a play going, they may have under estimated the ability of the establishment.

Also heard a new IRA plan for 98, it allows you to roll over from conventional, you pay your taxes on that money as it was actual income spread out for the next 4 years. When the person retires no taxes will be paid on that money are the accumalated money, this works out well if your in the early to mid stages of retirement investing. The standard penalty of 10% is accessed for early withdraw before the age of 59.5. I will be checking further for more info. It sounds if Clinton will try to generate as much revenue as possible before he leaves.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 04:14 - ID#255284)
the undead
careful, you will join the ranks ( !! ) of goldbugs past, they are legion, they have deep chips on their shoulders born of being right, but too early.
There is nothing quite so sobering and annoying as losing money from an idea that is ahead of its time.


(Sat Jan 10 1998 04:16 - ID#173274)
@the scene
LGB - - Ah, I see the problem. You and Karlito are nearly the only two who continue to post here of what has occurred in the past; I.E. yesterday and beyond. I believe everyone else here already know the gold went down and paper went up since before you were born, or somewhere along that timeline. I believe we all hear it here everday. Curious! Most people that have posted here have gone away, or gotten tired of re- posting the same stuff day after day. Strange that you haven't, especially since you seem to get into a 'fist- fight' of sorts everytime you do come on the scene. Masochistically!

You fail to understand that tomorrow is another day. Most here are much more interested in the timing of the shift; what will be the actual cause and when it'll be. They probably think it may be one of the most important things that may happen for the next several years. All markets turn. Gold will be no exception to that basic rule. Same with all paper.
By the way, I too currently think that the silver bull is still intact, though it is likely we'll see another 20- 25 cent drop first. And the way gold and silver dropped the other day looked like two separate events. Gold dropped from the open, being down about a buck to begin with. Silver not until after some minutes near even after the open before it got dumped on. Best regards.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 04:22 - ID#286279)
PS- If you discover or describe a species, you usually get to name it. You can name it after yourself. Hyphens are allowable. How about Fiatus pdeep- debtus?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 04:25 - ID#28585)
VRONSKY, took the wife out for dinner so I've not been on the internet for the last several hours. I got your message and attempted to pull up your E- Mail address...but got some type of error message.

Please leave me your address once again.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 04:40 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter - Full Moon
craig... Fri, Jan 9, 1:37PM CST ( - 0600 GMT )
information on trading during a full moon. Here are the results. So far this year we have had 10 full moons. Only two fell on a weekend so we used the following Monday as the "full moon day". We asked the computers to look for any patterns on the 3 trading days before a full moon day, and ( since everyone wants to buy an option, hold it for a week, and hit a home run ) on the 5 trading days after a full moon day. What we found is very interesting. As you learned above, full moon days close up 83% of the time. AND that is the worst day to be short, as the average drop on a full moon day is only 20.10 points on the Dow. BUT, shorting before the full moon does much better. The average cumulative drop during the three days BEFORE a full moon trading day is 90.40 points. That's the equivalent of over 10 points on the OEX. AND, the best day of the three to be short, or in puts, is the day BEFORE the full moon, which averages dropping 35.20 points. BUT, if you really want to go for a big lick in puts, study this. The average cumulative drop in the week ( 5 trading days ) after a full moon is 168.80 points. That's 19 points on the OEX and not bad for a weeks work. The best day to be short is the THIRD day after the full moon trading day, which averages dropping 72.50 points. The second best day to be short is the FIRST day after the full moon trading day, which averages dropping 35.60 points. Now before you start thinking that this full moon stuff is a bunch of bull, tell us how much and on what day was the biggest one day drop in 1996 ( so far ) . We'll even give you a hint. Elaine Garzarelli had nothing to do with it. While your at it, tell us how much and on what day was the biggest one, and two day drops in 1995. Give up? The biggest one day drop in 1996 was - 216 points on March 8. It was the THIRD day after the full moon. The biggest one day drop in 1995 was - 133 points on July 19. It was the fifth day after the full moon. The biggest two day drop was that day and the day before, the fourth day after the full moon when the Dow dropped - 58 for a total two day drop of - 191 points. Of the 15 biggest one day drops in 1996 so far, 11 of them were within the time frames examined by our computers during the full moon each month. Ten of them fell in the "week" after the full moon. If we ignore the Garzarelli selloff days that means that only 2 of the biggest drops this year have NOT been during a full moon. Making 10 out of 13 of the biggest drops hitting after the full moon. All other things equal, we know of no better time to be holding puts. Only once in the past year has holding puts right after a full moon not worked very well. That full moon was also a "Blue Moon", proving once again that that old saying of "once in a Blue Moon" really is something unusual.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 04:55 - ID#105111)
More on FDR's confiscation of private gold
Greetings fellow travelers! I have reviewed the last few days'
worth of entries in the site and found it most entertaining.
I've been asking myself why there is so much libertarian thought
on a chat site devoted ostensibly to gold ( and other PM )
markets. Or, to rephrase, why are so many libertarians gold
bugs? Any thoughts anyone?

On Karlito's theory about FDR's confiscation of gold being in
the best interests of those the gold was taken from: I suspect
Karlito's claim that the gold was redeemed at $35 an ounce is
historically inaccurate. I've checked what histories I have of
finance in that era and can find no trace of this surprising
concept. According to James Grant in "Money of the Mind",
Roosevelt invoked the Trading With the Enemy Act of 1917 and
capitalized ( pun intended ) on the Emergency Banking Act of
March 9, 1933 and promulgated his famous April 5, 1933 order
that all Americans cough up their gold "hoards" for the current
dollar value of "25.8 grains of gold, nine tenths fine", or
$20.67 an ounce. Later, with the Gold Reserve Act of
January 30, 1934, the dollar was re- valued at 15- 5/21 grains
of gold, nine tenths fine: a 41% devaluation, in one
fell ( very fell ) swoop. European central bankers and treasury
ministers referred to this event as "The American Default".
By the time gold could be redeemed for $35 an ounce, it was
illegal for an American to own gold! If you showed up at a
Federal Reserve Bank to claim your $35, you got arrested.
Perhaps the tactic was to throw some dirt on it and tell the
federal agents that you were a prospector and had just
found it in the mountains ( nudge- nudge, wink- wink ) . Americans
who obeyed and lost their gold to FDR's executive order had
their assets devalued by 41% . Not a great help, in my opinion.
One of the things I find interesting here is that in his order
FDR referred to Americans as "subjects" rather than "citizens"
of the United States. This slip of the pen demonstrates his
true feelings about his role as president.

Otherwise I find much of Karlito's input sound. His analysis
of the causes of the S & L crisis of the 80's is dead on, and
his claim that gold is no longer money is simply a statement
of fact. Perhaps there are many out there who would like to see
that change ( I am yet to be persuaded ) , but certainly the fiat
money we have now is going to produce the usual dire results.
As MJPL points out so eloquently, it happens again and again
and again in history, and it is about to happen to us.

So what's all this got to do with the price of gold? When asked
( years later ) why he had converted much of his assets to gold
bullion in 1932, Bernard Baruch answered "because I was beginning
to have doubts about the currency." The fact of the matter is,
all of the world's money is backed a promise made by our generation
of Americans that our kids will pay off some incredible debts we've
piled up ( this is the essence of the $US and US debt constituting
the reserve currency of the whole planet ) . Without spending
further time detailing what is wrong with the dollar, suffice it to
say that I believe it to be inherently unsound at this time, and
the rest of world is beginning to realize this, too. As confidence
in the dollar and financials ( stocks, bonds, derivatives, mutual
funds, etc. ) declines, people will flee to STUFF. Anything that
appears to have intrinsic value will go up ( except possibly, real
estate, since its value is so heavily leveraged, the bursting of
the debt bubble may keep its value down ) . ALL commodities are
in for a price increase, especially PMs. Add to this the
tremendous psychological value of gold, and I think gold is
about to go up, significantly, and quite probably more than
the other PMs.

Thanks for listening - Slingshot

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 10 1998 04:58 - ID#24140)
thank you Salty

For Aurator

Thank you - this data is not easy to find - Maybe its on a

need to know basis -

I checked the Armstrong site - I could only read the intro

and 3 chapters with adobe - It appears you must cough up

$125 for the CD to get to the individual chapters unless Im

really stupid ( a distict possibility ) - Couldnt find the

gold holdings though.

Believe this may be a period of history currently in process

of being rewritten.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 05:06 - ID#257148)
Money makes the woirld go round, the woirld go round...
One of my very first posts here was to seek info about Simon Caralan's Spiral Lunar calendar. Fibonacci numbers and lunations. 'Twas resoundingly unappreciated@kitco in those days...

It seemed to give the best triggers I had seen up until then ( 1992/3 ) for timing.

The problem I had with Mr Peutz, was only his first, inaccurate post of predictions which did not withstand the critique I published here. I have other, re- worked data that is entirely consistant with Monday being a crisis time and therefore a day of great opportunity. I loaded up rather heavily on Friday NZ time ( fortunately with BJ's consent ) and have the dry powder that Mr Peutz said, last August, should have been commtted to precious, and, were I to follow that, would've left me incapable of respondin yesterday, and in the days ahead..

doing my own homework, 'cos I lost $$$ I could ill afford, listening to others, years ago.

too salty to continue. perhaps someone else can take up the baton.

aur@book_worm_calculator_its_damn_hardtoearn_it_& _hardertomakeitwork4U

(Sat Jan 10 1998 05:13 - ID#257148)
there's rip offs, and then there's Princeton Economics
Yup I took a peak there too, didja see they wanted $500 for the gold prices back to 1550? that fukin info was taken directly from Jastram, I sent U the Ag/Au derived data. Croesus, what a way to make $.

btw, if u can fill in those data gaps, & remit, I'd appreciate it.

Do they call it Princeton because it's full of Princes?

( that may fall flat outside the English- English world. ) think the worst..

just a needle to PRICK the pompous money balloon


John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 10 1998 05:14 - ID#24140)
Lets start printing those South Korean Bonds
To All

I feel that my suggestion that South Korea satisfy

all creditors via the issuance of The required

quantity of Korean bonds did not receive a serious

hearing - ie - it was not dumped on sufficiently -


What's wrong with the idea- rather than take the korean

citizenry's gold away from them in return for bonds

( presumably to sell the gold to get US$ printed by the

USA ) , why not simply give the korean bonds to the IMF

in return for settling their debts.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 05:19 - ID#257148)


Hey, it was nothing, thanks for slinging!!

slingagain soon


(Sat Jan 10 1998 05:29 - ID#257148)
counting sheep


(Sat Jan 10 1998 05:32 - ID#398105)
LGB2 and Karlito99............National Debt and DOW Growth

I have had another look at the USA "Market Gain" and National Debt for the last 10 and 20 years.

The graph below indicates that the Dow gain since 1987 was 373% . Given that the period 87- 98 was the principal period of growth, and having only graphs not data for the period 77- 87, I find it impossible to accept your claim of 1000% growth for the market for the period 77- 98!

I would suggest that the % increase for the DOW for the period 77- 98 was the order of 500%

For the period 77- 98 your NATIONAL DEBT increased by a 594% , and for the period 87- 98 the debt increase was 133% . These figures I assume exclude interest?

I would therefore suggest to you that over the last 20 years your National Debt growth has been greater than the DOW growth by the order of 100 to 200% ! This

(Sat Jan 10 1998 05:37 - ID#398105)
LGB2 and Karlito99............National Debt and DOW Growth

I have had another look at the USA "Market Gain" and National Debt for the last 10 and 20 years.

The graph below indicates that the Dow gain since 1987 was 373% . Given that the period 87- 98 was the principal period of growth, and having only graphs not data for the period 77- 87, I find it impossible to accept your claim of 1000% growth for the market for the period 77- 98!

I would suggest that the % increase for the DOW for the period 77- 98 was the order of 500%

For the period 77- 98 your NATIONAL DEBT increased by a 594% , and for the period 87- 98 the debt increase was 133% . These figures I assume exclude interest?

I would therefore suggest to you that over the last 20 years your National Debt growth has been greater than the DOW growth by the order of 100 to 200% ! This defeats your and Karlitos' argument.

Please comment.

Aye, Haggis

(Sat Jan 10 1998 06:05 - ID#26793)
In 1929 the Dow reached a value of 18.43 ounces. Today it is at 27 ounces, that it a growth of 50% over the past 70 years.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 10 1998 06:19 - ID#24140)
Your wish is my command
for Salty

Sorry forgot - Missing Ratios in transit in rtf to land of

peewees woops kiwis.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 06:29 - ID#248180)
PM's, Strategic Metals & Rare Earth Metals (Rhodium)
Cats & Kittens, maybe we have missed something here. Is it possible that the real heavy hitters in this game, have been quietly investing in the lesser known and strategicaly more important and rarer metals? I am not suggesting that they have ignored gold, platinum and silver, nor will they for much longer. I also agree that they have by agreement held Au down in support of the USA$ and the USA equities market. In addition they may have been acquiring other precious PM's. Rhodium is one of these very important metals. The CB'ers and the G- 7 players certainly understand the very importance of these rare and lessor know metals. One cannot maintain and or develope any high tech electronics industry, space program or a modern military without rare earth metals.There are many of these metals - Scandium, Rhodium and so many more that I know little about. Comments from London confirm the recent price rise of Rhodium. Will the commodities like yellow cake, enriched Uranium follow suite? Or have the big players already covered themselves and are they already in control of these very rare and very precious metals? Yes, and many are worth more ounce than gold and platinum. Can you imagine what the price of the rare earth metals and uranium will be when gold and platinum make there inevitable move upwards.Does anybody have charts and trading prices of these rare commodities? Please provide if you can.

Steve - Perth
(Sat Jan 10 1998 06:30 - ID#284177)
Steves specially edited: NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA

Taiwan prepares for yuan's fall by June - - just in case

A simple lesson in Economics - The Maverick

US rescue bid as turmoil grows in Indonesia & surrounding countries

Doubts over use of RBAs TWI in measuring balance of Trade with Asia

US- Japan clash threatens financial stability

The Cherry Coke kinda guy who made his billions from Omaha

Fighting the herd instinct toward chemical farming

Indonesian food panic the worst since 1960s - IMF, US to rescue Rupiah

Over 90% of Indonesian Companies technically bankrupt


Indonesian shops in chaos as currency's wild fluctuation continues

Australian Market takes a $7.7bn hit as turmoil rages

Who is going to go next after Asia?


The Multilateral Agreement on Investment ( MAI )


Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters - Warren Buffett

Soeharto under fire as rupiah collapses

Hong Kong Dives

Indonesian economy crashes

Indonesia on the brink

Crisis talks fail to impress markets

China takes firm stand on yuan ( for now )

Currency crash sweeping Asia


Price rises to hit rich and poor

Ominous signs ignored

Seoul fights off collapse, Thais beg for mercy

Just what is the IMF anyway, and does it get it right?

Tough times spark market riots

A$ falls to 11 year low

Bank of England considers fine- tuning rates

Seoul, Bangkok face $178bn payout - European Banks flushed out?

Rubin defends Asian Bailouts

Taiwan Dollar under attack

Soros to do Korea over again - softened up for the kill

Deflation fears take bonds back to the 60s

GREENSPAN DEFLATION SPEECH: Problems of Price Measurement

The Big Currency traders arent so smart

The Year of the Tiger could be a killer

Financial breakdown means it's time to reassess IMF role - By George Soros

The Maverick - Although there seems to be a very tired bull market in the US,
a sustained correction may yet be some time away, writes Gerry van Wyngen.

Getting burned by your Company Share Scheme

After 15 years the bulls are looking for a break

Cashed- up firms swoop on Asia

Reproducing the 1930s

Japanese Banks not out of the woods 19971226233505010& top= biz& template= Default.htx& maxfieldsize= 3318

( See, nothing to worry about! Or is there? )

Mid Level Officials lobbying for Chinese Devaluation!

BOOKMARK Steves News Page:
( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )

(Sat Jan 10 1998 06:31 - ID#284255)
By the lite of the silvery moon.
The Monday sell?
Backed by the moon.
I wouldn't bet by the moon but nice to know it's on your side.
Counting the sheep.

If you would like the back data please email.
I have the dow back to befor 1920.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 06:37 - ID#26793)
@Those discussing the gold confiscation of 1933. Helpful site.

Steve - Perth
(Sat Jan 10 1998 07:14 - ID#284177)
Gold down again
Gold is at US$278!!!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 07:23 - ID#284255)
ANZ my favorite bank
Government props up trade with Korea
By Andrew Cornell

The Australian Government has boosted the resources of its major export finance facilitator and established a committee to ensure the $9 billion bilateral trade between Australia and Korea is not threatened by a credit squeeze.

As the Korean economic crisis deepened before Christmas, anecdotal evidence was emerging of Korean customers being unable to raise letters of credit to fund purchases of Australian exports and Australian banks refusing to deal with some Korean banks.

An interdepartmental committee reporting to the Industry, Science and Tourism minister, John Moore, was convened last week to ensure credit was available for otherwise viable enterprises.

The majority of Australia's $7 billion of export trade with Korea, from huge iron ore and coal shipments by BHP Co Ltd to small component suppliers, is facilitated by letters of credit.

The Export Finance and Insurance Corporation, the government body charged with arranging private sector finance for export and providing its own finance and insurance, has established a new facility of $300 million to $400 million for Korea.

EFIC's managing director, Graeme Lawless, is now in Korea familiarising himself with the issues.

The pressure on letter of credit finance was greatest just before Christmas, when the Korean situation was at its most volatile. It has since eased slightly and did so again on Thursday night, when a meeting in New York of global banks agreed to roll over $US40 billion ( $62.8 billion ) of inter- bank debt due by the end of March for a further 90 days. That debt includes trade finance such as letters of credit.

National Australia Bank was involved in the meeting and a bank spokesman said yesterday it supported measures by the international banking community to provide liquidity for the Korean financial system.

ANZ Banking Group, the other Australian bank with a significant presence in Korea, would not comment yesterday. Sources said the banks were facing pressure from both the Government - - Australia is supporting an IMF package for Korea - - and peer banks.

"The Reserve Bank of Australia can't formally coerce ANZ or anyone into supporting the rollover but the greater pressure comes from peer banks, which may squeeze out banks that don't participate in restructurings," a banking source said.

The interdepartmental committee has not yet decided how strong a role EFIC should play in supporting Korean trade.

"It is a very touchy situation and obviously exporters and private sector banks are concerned to get some reassurance, and we will look at the best way to provide that - - either through funding or insurance from EFIC," a committee source said.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 07:31 - ID#284255)
Just a few billion.
What Korea's crisis will cost
By Andrew Cornell
Nine out of every 10 ounces of gold produced in Australia went to the Republic of Korea last year. A quarter of all mineral exports went the same way. Korea is our third most important market for meat. It is in the top 10 for commodities ranging from coal and aluminium to wheat and wool. And it was the fastest- growing source of inbound tourism and overseas students.

As the world's 11th- largest economy and Australia's second- largest export market, if Korea contracts in 1998 by 3 per cent - - the most pessimistic of the range of official forecasts - - it will drag Australia's own economic growth back by anything up to a whole percentage point, nearly one- quarter of our forecast growth in gross domestic product. Maybe $5 billion.

Again, if pessimists are proved correct, total exports to South Korea, which peaked at more than $7.3 billion for 1996, could plunge by more than $1 billion. Exports already dropped back to $7.1 billion for the 12 months to September 1997.

Little wonder, then, that the Treasurer, Peter Costello, was so firm in his support for a Korean rescue package. "We are doing this as part of the region, but we are also doing it as part of an international effort to stabilise the situation in Korea, an effort that is very much in the Australian national interest," Costello said before Christmas when announcing Australia's involvement.

While the crises throughout South- East Asia are disturbing for Australia, Korea's plight could be disastrous. But the worst- case scenario is by no means a certain reality, and a different set of equally legitimate forecasts produces an outcome for Australia which, if not exactly rosy, is considerably less thorny.

For the optimists, Korea's difficulties will be short- lived, and organisations like Austrade and corporate advisers are promoting the situation as a once- in- a- lifetime opportunity to get in on the ground floor of an economic growth rate that will soon return to the stratosphere.

"Korea, for all its over- blown companies and currency problems, has produced astonishing things in the 40 years since the [Korean] War," says KPMG tax partner and head of Korean business ventures, John Lee: "a huge shipbuilding industry from nothing, a huge steel industry from nothing, an electronics industry from nothing. This is not an economy that is going to just roll over."

Lee says the Korean situation provides not only immense opportunities for brave investors but will also allow trading partners to demonstrate loyalty that will be repaid several times over as Korea recovers.

Bolstered by the largest- ever rescue package co- ordinated by the International Monetary Fund, of $US60 billion ( $95 billion ) , Korea's Government - - both existing and its newly elected president, Kim Dae Jung - - has committed the country to an export- led recovery.

If that drive is sustainable, Australia stands to benefit strongly as Korea's sixth- largest trading partner and one of the major providers of inputs for Korean industry. More than $1.5 billion worth of iron ore and coal were shipped to Korea in the 12 months to September.

For once, Australia's much- lamented failure to add value to raw materials stands it in particularly good stead. While the collapse of the Korean won has made imported goods drastically more expensive, Korea has no option but to maintain raw material imports.

At the moment, that appears to be the case. For example, POSCO, one of the largest and most competitive Korean steel producers and BHP's single largest customer for iron ore, continues to operate at near maximum levels, according to the Metals Bulletin.

When the Korean economic crisis first hit, a little over a month ago, initial signs for Australia were ominous. Tourism, already stung by a weakening Korean currency, died almost overnight. Letters of credit, the lifeblood of trade finance, became unobtainable, freezing much trade. Weakening wool orders are now down one- third. And Qantas and Ansett have abandoned their Korean routes.

According to Korea- watchers, whether the economic crisis becomes a correction or a rout all depends on the next three months. So, too, the impact on Australia.

Forecasts for economic growth in Korea, from domestic economics groups and banks, range from minus 2.9 per cent to more than plus 4 per cent. The consensus is that growth will be close to zero, while the IMF rescue package dictates it be kept under 3 per cent. This for an economy that has been growing at close to three times that rate in the '90s.

Korea faces substantial long- term restructuring issues, most notably liberalisation of its financial system and relaxation of limits on foreign ownership, and, fundamentally, an overhaul of the chaebols, large, diversified conglomerates with strong political ties which dominate Korean industry.

The country's immediate fate depends on rolling over short- term debt, up to $US50 billion of which is due to mature in the next three months. The initial use of IMF funds will be for this purpose, but those countries committed to the Korea bail- out - - including Australia - - will be supporting the rollover.

Private banks with exposures to Korea, again including Australian banks, are being encouraged to extend repayment deadlines on debts, and the Reserve Bank is in the middle of what commercial bank sources refer to as "extremely sensitive" negotiations with Australian banks. Of the two local banks with a presence in Korea, National Australia Bank's direct exposure is greater than ANZ's, but both in total are less than $500 million on balance sheets totalling more than $300 billion.

The concern over the availability of letters of credit - - effectively guarantees provided by banks to each other to support trade between companies - - is beginning to ease a little but remains a concern for trade finance. The IMF is demanding that Korean banks maintain international standards of capital to support their lending - - 8 per cent of loans must be in cash or near equivalents - - and, strapped for funds as they are, this has meant many Korean banks are not extending new credit.

But the news is not all bad. While it might be assumed that Australian gold producers would be devastated by the crisis in their major market, the reality is that Korea was not an end- user of gold. In fact, gold was being used as an interest rate management tool, and a curious feature of the gold market is that it has consistently more buyers than sellers - - regardless of price.

"If Korea doesn't buy the gold, Hong Kong or Singapore or someone else will, says one bullion dealer. "There's always buyers for gold."

Similarly for growth- led demand. While Korea is Australia's third- largest bilateral trading partner, a fall in demand for some exports is likely to be replaced by demand elsewhere.

Respected US economist Dr Michael Ivanovitch, of MSI Global, argued recently that even substantially negative growth for east Asia in 1998 would not affect world trade growth of 8 to 9 per cent, mainly because other parts of the world would take up the slack.

Ivanovitch noted that world trade dipped in 1996 even though these economies grew strongly: South Korea by 7.1 per cent, Thailand by 6.7 per cent, Malaysia by 8.2 per cent, Indonesia by 7.8 per cent and the Philippines by 5.5 per cent.

Korean economists are already drawing parallels with the Mexican peso crisis of 1995. Similar structural problems prevail, particularly in regard to the need for foreign reserves to overcome the short- term debt problems. IMF bail- out conditions caused severe hardship in Mexico, with interest rates rocketing, inflation surging and unemployment growing. But Mexico was the equal best- performing equities market in 1997 - - a demonstration that tough medicine can rapidly attract back foreign investment.

Foreign investment in Korea, a fundamental component of the IMF package, has, almost paradoxically, been facilitated by the crisis.

Korea, a country with which few Australians are familiar and of which fewer still appreciate the significance, is suddenly the focus of attention. As one Austrade official noted laconically, "We've spent years trying to get Korea on people's radar screens. This crisis has certainly done that."

And culturally, there has also been good news in the bad. Dr Chung Myung- Shik, the chairman of the Korea- Australia Foundation, says the economic crisis has brought in weeks the worldwide attention the foundation had spent five years working towards. "For better or worse, we are in the newspapers and people are learning about Korea," he says.

Chung says his challenge, like that of business, is to reassess opportunities, recognising that the fall in the won would make the deferral of some projects inevitable.

KPMG's Lee espouses a similar philosophy for business, while management consultants such as The Boston Consulting Group have already devised aggressive strategies for client companies.

"In Korea they are saying 'the best business plan is no business plan', and that is a shock for Koreans, who like to plan ahead, but it spells opportunity for Australia," Lee says. But he believes there will be ongoing business failures in Korea, so great caution is required, particularly in the next two to three months. He says now is the time to critically assess how important a relationship is and what part Korea will play in future plans.

"How important is your Korean business? How well do you know your partners? How strong is the relationship? How much are you prepared to support it? These are the questions you must ask yourself," he says. "If your Korean business is important, now is the time to go the extra mile: such gestures will pay immense dividends."

Boston Consulting Group director Mark Joiner says the Korean crisis, while throwing up new challenges, has removed some major impediments to business expansion. A market that was effectively closed has been opened. While many bad businesses will go under, good ones, short of capital, will become available for investment.

"The crisis is ushering in an era of great opportunity for multinationals with strong operating capabilities that formerly may have found it difficult to build solid positions," he predicts.

Joiner says Australian companies should particularly look at investing in trading partners, establishing joint ventures and taking greater control of businesses in Korea.

Pacific BBA, an automotive components manufacturer which exports to Korean car companies, is in such a situation. Managing director Barry Jackson says the depreciation of the won and restructuring in Korea will probably bring forward a decision to invest in production capacity there.

"We always knew that with Korea we would eventually have to move to domestic production," Jackson says. "Our long- term outlook for Korea remains strong. It is still one of the few countries in the world that is a major auto designer, manufacturer and exporter."

But despite the opportunities, Korea's situation remains fragile. Any decision by big lending banks - - concentrated in Japan, France and Germany - - to call in debts would spark another crisis of confidence. So far, less than $US10 billion of the IMF rescue package is available.

Domestically, Koreans have responded with alarm to the need to be rescued, and particularly to the perception that it is a rescue forced upon the country by a patriarchal United States. Continuing business failures, bank closures and rising unemployment are likely to exacerbate the ill- feeling.

But there are signs that the economic turnaround is beginning. Imports have plunged, due particularly to a precipitous fall in the won but also to the self- imposed austerity campaign that is encouraging Koreans to shun foreign goods and travel.

From having been in steady deficit since late 1993, Korea's trade balance surged back into surplus in December, exports growing 7.5 per cent and imports plunging 22 per cent.

The confidence of people like KPMG's John Lee appears justified viewed against such rapid change, but Peter Costello's outlook is more pragmatic: Korea's interests are Australia's interests.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 07:43 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Breton.............................and Electric Puha
Sleet- ice- hail ( you name it ) is coming down from the sky...A day like this might call for a few ( ?? ) Pina Coladas~~~~~~

(Sat Jan 10 1998 07:54 - ID#36965)
Ted, I'm feeling your pain. I come out to the car to drive to the office for a bit of work and what do I find. White stuff all over the ground. Luckily it is not as cold as what you are describing though. Where do you predict gold is going. I've decided to sick with it despite the fact that it has the characterisic of suckocity lately.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 07:58 - ID#364147)
Misery loves company so am glad yer weather suks too...Where do I think gold is goin- - - can only go down another 2- 7- 9 ( that I know! ) - actually don't have a clue and why aren't YOU @ the health club?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 08:16 - ID#36965)
Maybe gold will go down another 278 or so. Lets go short on the damn stuff. I would be at the spa this time of the day except I have to go on the forced march with my wife and a couple of friends later on today and I don't want to look like a wimp and pass out on the treck. I'll see if I can get a joke of the morn to stimulate some blood.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 08:24 - ID#36965)
Joke of the morning
Some of our national leaders remind me of the mime in the following story when it comes to handling the USA economy.

One day an out of work mime is visiting the zoo and attempts to earn
some money as a street performer. Unfortunately, as soon as he
starts to draw a crowd, a zoo keeper grabs him and drags him into
his office.

The zoo keeper explains to the mime that the zoo's most popular
attraction, a gorilla has died suddenly and the keeper fears that
attendance at the zoo will fall off. He offers the mime a job to dress
up as the gorilla until they can get another one. The mime accepts.

So the next morning the mime puts on the gorilla suit and enters the
cage before crowd comes. He discovers that it's a great job. He can
sleep all he wants, play and make fun of people and he draws bigger
crowds than he ever did as a mime. However, eventually the crowds
tire of him and he tires of just swinging on tires. He begins to notice
that the people are paying more attention to the lion in the cage next
to his. Not wanting to lose the attention of his audience, he climbs to
the top of his cage, crawls across a partition, and dangles from the
top to the lion's cage. Of course, this makes the lion furious, but the
crowd loves it.

At the end of the day the zoo keeper comes and gives the mime a
raise for being such a good attraction.

Well, this goes on for some time, the mime keeps taunting the lion,
the crowds grow larger, and his salary keeps going up. Then one
terrible day when he is dangling over the furious lion he slips and
falls. The mime is terrified. The lion gathers itself and prepares to
pounce. The mime is so scared that he begins to run round and
round the cage with the lion close behind. Finally, the mime starts
screaming and yelling, "Help, Help me!", but the lion is quick and
pounces. The mime soon finds himself flat on his back looking up at
the angry lion and the lion says,

"Shut up you idiot! Do you want to get us both fired?"

(Sat Jan 10 1998 08:34 - ID#364147)
Good- N.....Am spending my time designing and getting a material order together for the new house ( been a while and am having ta wrack the ole brain cells to get it together ) - - - my 'better half' is in the states for five weeks so am tryin ta stay out of mischief....

(Sat Jan 10 1998 08:45 - ID#329157)
Gold and Oil... and pirates!
Pirate raiders boarded the Shell oil tanker Isomeria in the Brazilian port of Santos on January 9th, and demanded money and gold, which they believed were on board. Did the pirates know something, or were they just followinh the rumours? Armed police intercepted the pirates on their way out; two were shot dead and a British 2nd officer was wounded.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Jan 10 1998 08:46 - ID#347447)
Catchup Ketchup
AURATOR: Fri 22:56 - I agree with you that personal abuse only adds hominem to an already cheap argument. Like rubbing salty into a wound.

MYRMIDON: Buying Calls on the National Debt truly funny.

TOLERANT: 21:50 Friday - Your manifesto for a Renaissance was inspiring. "Communication and teamwork" will come, of sorts, if and when there is a general spiritual renewal. At present, philosophy plays no part in the human world or national character. Pragmatism and expedience rule, and while we are experiencing a wonderful material prosperity ( as the result of previous philosophical underpinnings ) the current cultural bankruptcy bodes ill for the future. The vision you hold may not be practicable without a shared and intense value foundation among many. The tendency at the tail end of any civilizational wave is toward fragmentation. The internet is perhaps a helper in this regard. IE: everyone is now a publisher, journalist, broadscaster, projector of individual reality. This is good, and will aid the process of both disintegration of the worn out conventional projectors of "reality", and spreading the germ, or seed, of the next shared, monolithic, reality system that will arise out of the fragments. Much as "Christianity" was the seed cast off from the ancient metaphysics and flowered into the most recent underpinning of Western Civilization. There will be social travail as the new replaces the old, but not to worry, after a hundred years or so, things will be ok.

223: 22:16 Fri - This is why I don't wear suits.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Jan 10 1998 08:47 - ID#347447)
Those pirates must have emerged from a time warp in the Bermuda Triangle if they were hot on getting gold.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 08:53 - ID#427357)

CURRENCY TURMOIL IN 1998 by Milhouse

The economic supremo of Taiwan's ruling party, Lui Tai- ying, has challenged conventional wisdom on China's commitment to retaining a strong currency by warning of a MAJOR DROP IN THE YUAN BY JUNE.

Lui predicts a worst- case scenario of a 40 percent fall via a gradual devaluation, or a 25 percent one whack depreciation.

The Hong Kong Oracle has given another insightful and perhaps even alarming prediction of what currency turmoil to expect in Asia during 1998. It is definitely NOT a pretty picture. Milhouse gives his considered opinion on most major currencies and GOLD.

Gold will be the major beneficiary of the increasing currency
volatility wrought by EMU and the drive to inflate which is already underway in almost every country. The reason it will benefit is because it is the only form of money which exists outside the financial system. As such, it is the only truly effective hedge against inflation. Any method of hedging against inflation which exists within the financial system involves a payment risk. Also, even if your non- gold hedge is 100% effective, you simply end up with a larger quantity of paper.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 09:00 - ID#364147)
Down with Camdessus + the IMF

(Sat Jan 10 1998 09:00 - ID#335184)
TED & TORT, Excuse me for interloping, but I'm feeling your pain & I have a guess re AU price.
There is an erie silence or pausity of public policy coordination
& pronouncements between the US & Nippon since the meeting in Washinton this week with US Treasury & Japanese Finance officials. Apparently no agreement was reached on Yen / $ exchange values & brinksmanship is palpable in the air.
I believe the US FED / Treasury acting in concert with France & Germany through AU leased derivitives will hold the lid on AU price & possibly move it lower ( $240- 260 ) while they press their debt leverage with Asian Tigers & strong $ squeeze exerts extreme pressure on Japanese banks as Asain Tiger creditors. Ofcourse, a debacle in the US equity market would derail this engineered plan for the AU price & send it to historic levels as the US $ sinks out of sight or is devalued out right.The last thing these powers wish to see at this critical juncture is an AU price rise touching off a general stampede to hold AU & shift out of US denominated securities.
Tar Baby

(Sat Jan 10 1998 09:00 - ID#329157)
ANOTHER (Timing)
Timing of ANOTHER's Saturday posts ( sample ) :


(Sat Jan 10 1998 09:02 - ID#329157)
08:45 more on Gold, Oil, Pirates
One UK newspaper reported the pirates were looking for gold and cash on an oil tanker. Another newspaper said they were looking for cash on a petroleum tanker.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 09:03 - ID#364147)
What's another 30- 40 bucks down!...As for feeling pain- - won't feel a thing after 10- 15 pina coladas ( grin thing )

(Sat Jan 10 1998 09:18 - ID#284255)
Bear Newspaper.
Article near the bottom.
Dollar declines on talk central banks may take joint action
The US dollar fell against leading currencies in early London trading yesterday amid speculation central banks might join forces to push the dollar lower, dealers said.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 09:35 - ID#335184)
AU is hostage & mugged by US/EURO brinksmanship over Asian market hedgemney
I suppose the primary object of US/EURO contension with Japan & domination of Asian Tigers is to open all of asia to US/EURO bank, & exports & to allow US investment bankers to repackage \ or, resell & /or own asia at firesale prices. The strong $ & massive loans forcing Tigers to their knees is a crow bar that has replaced US futile efforts over the last 20 years to compete on equal basis in the region & to secure a big US foot in the door of the Pacific Rim market share before being left in the dust of the departing 20th century.
AU is merly a casualty of this exercise & I sincerely urge all my Kitco brethern & sistern to be ruled by this unfolding struggle ! AU bugs of he world keep the faith & stay united, for their is strength in incourageous numbers & relief on the dawn's horizon !

Crystal Ball
(Sat Jan 10 1998 09:44 - ID#287367)
I have $MXYND ( Feb 120 puts ) Which ones do you have?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 09:56 - ID#30116)

(Sat Jan 10 1998 09:56 - ID#30116)
John Disney
In answer to your question about Korean bonds; The U.S. has a bigger military machine.

I've often thought about the point that you've raised, perpetual inflation. After all, are not a 'governments bonds' backed by the government and its' tax paying citizenry? A triple 'A' credit rating if there ever was one. :- ) )

The problem with all of these 'payment' schemes is that at some point a tangible is desired. Something like food or a car. It is at this point that the deal gets a little 'sticky'. If we print up enough IOUs to pay everyone off, what are the IOUs really worth? How do we value a promise to pay a promise????

Does the promise to pay on a promise to pay, ( no, that's not a typo ) become the definition of a fiat currency? If so, we all work for nothing and get everything free. Uh oh, now I'm confusing myself. Ah well, just pay me in dollars, price my goods in dollars, and let the 'regulators' of dollars do their 'business' and all shall be well. My! Emperor, what a fine set of clothing you have. :- ) )

(Sat Jan 10 1998 10:00 - ID#426220)


The 1929- like crash in Asia is causing misery on a biblical scale, threatening the solvency of banks, stockbrokers, margin calls undermining investors, while the crackpots running the central banks raise taxes and interest rates, wreaking havoc on the middle class and poor.

If all nations printed paper money at different rates, how could there possibly be stability?

Over the millennia, gold has been the traditional receptacle for Mass Fear, along with silver and perhaps platinum. On a "spike" there is no telling how high gold might go when so many try to buy at the same time, like a herd of elephants trying to get through a revolving door at the same time. FULL REPORT at:

(Sat Jan 10 1998 10:04 - ID#341214)
aurator: Doing Homework
aurator: I think "doing your own homework" is one of the very best messages we can send out to the lurkers here. Examples as to why ( damn brokers, most of them, anyway ) and how ( online order entry ala Lind Waldock, what books to read ) are good additions to the theme of "doing your own homework".

While I respect the opinion of many on this board I simply could not base an investment decision on what another person says. If I don't know I won't go. Kitco is the best damn place I have ever found for adding to the knowledge I need for making my own decisions. And what a kick when I get it right!

Anyone that makes a decision based simply on what one of us says is in danger of getting his/her head handed to them. That is why I have such a hard time with the LGB types on this board that come down so hard on those that make a bad call ( sometimes which is only wrong timeframe wise ) . Who is the greater fool? The one that made the call or the one that followed it blindly? Seems like LGB ought to turn his wrath on the latter group occasionally.


(Sat Jan 10 1998 10:06 - ID#284255)
Capitulation? Not yet.
Manila in 8pc dive as 'people give up'
AGENCIES in Manila 19980110013143035& top= mar& template= Mar_Article.htx& maxfieldsize= 2099
Philippine shares were smashed to 57- month lows yesterday by regional financial woes and fears of a slowdown in the domestic economy, and brokers expect only a temporary respite next week.

The Philippine Composite Index fell 8.33 per cent to end at 1,518 points, the lowest closing mark since April 1993.

"People are just giving up. They feel this whole crisis is not going to end," said Robinson Siao, executive vice- president at Securities 2000 Inc.

In just a week, the key index has lost 373.27 points, nearly 20 per cent off the previous Friday's points.

"This seems a descent to Dante's hell. It reminds me of the 1983 economic collapse what with soaring interest rates, talks of mass lay- offs and worse, it's an election year," Guoco Securities research head Saturnino Mejia said.

Brokers said Philippine equities would remain hostage to the turmoil in other Asian markets.

"We are still taken as one basket. We are sold many times over . . . but because it's a weekend and nerves may calm down, there is a possibility of a rebound next week," said Louie Bate, ING Baring Securities managing director for equity brokerage.

Any gains next week would do little to recoup the losses of the past five days, observers said.

Brokers were wary of mentioning the next support levels but fear the market could fall to below 1,000 points.

"Everyone's feeling an economic meltdown in Asia. For the Philippine market, the index may breach the 1,200 points immediate support and a major one at 800 points," a broker said.

Summit Securities president Harry Liu said there was a dire need to boost market confidence in Asia to turn around plunging markets.

"This kind of drop will reach a panic point of absurdity. Confidence should be built but there is the question of who and how," he said.

While shares plummeted, the peso edged higher as dealers said it was believed the central bank was indirectly providing dollar liquidity to the market.

The peso rose to 44.25 to the US dollar in afternoon trade from the previous close of 44.92.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 10:24 - ID#344290)
@ Donald - Dow/gold '98 vs '29
When you buy the Dow you're really buying earnings stream; how would Dow earnings/gold compare '98 vs '29? Also, please post NAV for CEF if you have it handy this weekend. Ta.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 10:25 - ID#284255)
Softly softly
"This is not a time, at this juncture, to make a big play in equities," Roach said. "That's certainly what the carnage in the equities markets are telling you now."

(Sat Jan 10 1998 10:26 - ID#426220)
NEW YEARS MUSINGS: More Tears Than Joy

Saturday January 10 1998: THE DOMINOS CONTINUE TO FALL - -

Hong Kong market slides to its lowest close since May 10, 1995

China - Shanghai B shares hit record lows on widespread selling

Jakarta suffers 340- point stock market plunge in week

Indonesian currency at a seven- year low for its currency

Manila in 8% dive as 'people give up' at 57- month lows

Dow tracks global selling by plunging 222 points

British stocks fell yesterday

Taipei Market suffers as foreign investors pull out of Asia

Korea - Bank issues drop on fear debtor nations may default

Indias stock index dropped sharply pending change in rating

Singapore - Buyers bail out as currency crisis cuts values

Malaysia's key stock index tumbled to a seven- year low

Thai share prices sharply lower - sell- offs in banking sector

Manila Stocks dive as recession fears mount

Australia Benchmark falls as concern over Asia grows

Etc. Etc. Ad Nauseam

Southeast Asian Currencies Begin 1998 SHARPLY DOWN!

Malaysian, Indonesian & Thailand Currencies Plummeting... AGAIN

John Kutyn is undoubtedly one of last years most brilliant and perceptive analysts on the Domino Effect sweeping through Southeast Asia. His insightful take on currency chaos and stock market turmoil paint a grim picture of what the new year holds for the countries of that area... indeed what the ramifications are for the rest of the world. Following are a few of his random thoughts on the region. Additionally, he shares his opinion of the precarious condition of the Japanese Banking System, and what we might brace ourselves for in 1998.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 10:29 - ID#284255)
"The market doesn't like uncertainty"
Neat charting package.
And it's free.

Yesterday's plunge ended the Dow's worst week in eight years. It lost 384.62 points, or 4.8 percent over the last five trading days.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 10:30 - ID#234182)
fundaMEATAList:homework 10:00
PERFECT.....the other night you posted an e- wave consideration of .90 for wave 1. I've just started learn about this science/art, so some patience may be required, I responded to your post indicating the .90 may be conservative. POssibly I missed your response if so re- post svp.....

(Sat Jan 10 1998 10:38 - ID#286199)
Silver Corner?
January 9, 1998
U.S. Law Firm Eyeing Suit Vs. Silver Traders - Source

AP- Dow Jones News Service

NEW YORK - - A U.S. law firm has been seeking advice about a possible class action against participants in the silver market for alleged price manipulation, one of those contacted told Dow Jones Newswires Friday.

Martin Armstrong, chairman of the Princeton Economics Institute in Princeton, New Jersey, said he was contacted by the law firm - which he wouldn't name - Monday or Tuesday of this week.

'We were asked our opinion if the market was being manipulated or not and is there probable cause to go ahead ( with a suit ) ,' Armstrong said. 'Based on the evidence I have seen and research that we have done, the answer is yes.'

'There are a few other people who have been asked. I've seen the research, but I don't know who did it,' Armstrong said.

He said he didn't know which silver market participants might be named in the suit. The Princeton Economics Institute is an international corporate and institutional financial advisory company.

Silver prices rallied sharply in December, but tumbled Thursday and Friday, as rumors spread of a possible class action suit. At the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange the March contract ended Friday at $5.638 a troy ounce, down from an eight- year high of $6.395 per ounce reached in intraday trading on Dec. 24.

Princeton's Armstrong said he advised the law firm that evidence points strongly to a manipulation of silver market prices.

One of the most prominent pieces of evidence is that silver is near its highs just as gold, and almost every other commodity, are at their lows, he said.

'Silver has never made a high when gold has made a low. The two usually trade in the same direction. Not just gold, but all the commodities were going down.

Crude oil was going down, copper was going down and the only one that went up was silver. It sticks out like a sore thumb,' Armstrong said.

Additionally, he said it would be difficult to cover up silver price manipulation achieved through a 'squeeze,' or the withholding of stocks from the market, because of the amount of stocks involved.

Armstrong said the person or persons allegedly acting to squeeze the market could have taken as much as 500 million ounces of silver off the market in order to give the appearance of dwindling stocks.

'That's like trying to take an elephant and hide it under a pebble,' he said. The price structure of the market also points to a squeeze, Armstrong said. 'The other tell- tale sign is that the back months of the contract are cheaper than the current month. It's very rare for silver to go into a backwardation. When any commodity does that it's the first time of a short- term squeeze.'

He was referring to later contract months at Comex being at prices lower than nearby months, a price structure known as backwardation.

- By Betsy Dowling; 1- 201- 938- 2018;

(Sat Jan 10 1998 10:38 - ID#237164)
gold bonds ..
Can someone comment on the gold bond redemption that is about
to happen in India. If you bought gold denominated bond
in 1993 and they matured today ... would it be construed as
a gain or a loss? in dollars and in rupee ???

But the redemption is on March 14 ... I would think
that these bonds are pretty volitile at this time, if they
are being traded at all.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 10:46 - ID#344308)

who shoots from the hip and hits their lip?

there are a lot of bloody lips and tooth chips
amongst the debris of the street.

rhe imf is fixing to finish ( try ) their take- over
of the world financial machine. not to say the existing
policies were any- better.......far from it....however,
the institution of these new policies will be met with
nore chaos and flux......

9 days and no more counting.......missed it by 9 days.....
the options missed nothing........

cherokee!; ) - - - rider- in- the- paper- tiger's- funeral- procession- - - -

(Sat Jan 10 1998 10:49 - ID#33164)
8 hours later...
Afternoon All!

Sharefin/Jim- saw only your two posts this morning re Wavelets and Pings....then I was cut off. Such difficulty getting in, so had to give up and go off a- planting and a- horsing!

Sharefin- Did you get the Crooks fax sent last night to H? He seemed to think the US markets would crash after this week- he stressed with me that 'crash' does not necessarily mean a dramatic event over one day - but who knows??? His final update is interesting, as you'll see, and can possibly share with the rest of the Kitcoites?

What's happening in the markets? Can anyone please give me some clues?

And WHY is gold so low? - Is it really going to go down to $250???

Thanks, and kind regards..

(Sat Jan 10 1998 10:51 - ID#22451)
ALL!!!-Committee of 300 by Dr. John Coleman
It is easy to see the pain we GOLD BUGS are feeling. The worst part is that it is hard to define or understand what in the H! is going on. A plausible explanation is found in the above article. I can't seem to
upload this file but it can be found by browser if you desire. It is quite lengthy. Look between pages 115 to 122 or part 11 of 24.
Meanwhile here are a couple of quotes that pertain to what may be happening.
"It took a lot of research on my part to link the price of gold to the price of opium. I used to tell anyone who would listen, ""If you want to know the price of gold find out what the price of a pound or a kilo of opium is in Hong Kong."" To my critics I answered, ""Take a look at what happened in 1977, a critical year for gold."" The Bank of China shocked the gold pundits, and those clever forecasters who are to be found in great numbers in America, by suddenly and without warning, dumping 80 tons of gold on the market.
That depressed the price of gold in a big hurry. All the experts could say was, ""We never knew China had that much gold, where could it have come from?"" It came from gold which is paid to China in the Hong Kong gold market for large purchases of opium." BREAK ( IF YOU READ ON IT GETS MORE INTERESTING )

"This is precislely the way the BIS and IMF are operating. Let me say without hesitation that both these banks are nothing more than bully boy clearing houses for the drug trade. The BIS undermines any country that the IMF wants to sink by setting up ways and means for the easy OUTFLOW OF FLIGHT CAPITAL. Nor does BIS recognize nor make any distinction when it comes down to what is flight capital and what is laundered drug money.
The BIS operates on gangster lines. If a country will not submit to asset stripping by the IMF, then it says in effect, ""Right, then we will break you by means of the huge cache of NARCO- DOLLARS we are holding."" It is easy to understand why gold was demonitized and substituted with the paper dollar as the world's reserve currency. It is not easy to blackmail a country holding gold reserves."

Any comments or Discussion?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 10:56 - ID#284255)
This charting package is worth a look.
I just gotta plug this package.
I have just been playing with XAU.X with the indicators.
It's a neat program.
It doesn't do futures but has all the indices.

XBD.X is an interesting indice.
It's the brokers index.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 10:59 - ID#234182)
Unfortunately, the weekend is the only time that allows me very much time with the Kitco board. Your posts,charts and re- directs are much appreciated. You should re- consider INDU. :- ) ) ) ....also, I miss Steve- Perth ( your fellow countryman ) news posts. The Sydney Herald's financial writers appear to be reputable perveyors of the economy are they?...regards

(Sat Jan 10 1998 11:05 - ID#374294)
Pete...where is the URL for that information?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 11:06 - ID#26793)
Net Asset value for CEF was US$4.12 on Thursday. I don't know how to answer your other question. Does anyone have 1929 data per the Crunch question?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 11:09 - ID#284255)
It's finally stopped raining here. Hot and sweaty again with sunburnt tourists
I have not recieved the fax's yet.
Will check with Helen at work today.
Many thanks.
As to the markets - a repeat of October's woes.

Re- consider INDU?
You'll have to explain, it's 2am here and I'm weary.

AFR is a good OZ paper always worth a read.
It's good on the net cause I can read it 8hrs before it hits the streets.
Reasonably reported articles with a definitive OZ bias.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 11:13 - ID#256254)

We talked ages ago about when no one is left on the other side of the trade ( especially with derivatives ) , well maybe this is a sample case.

from steve's postings

But that doesn't happen in these "undeliverable forward" contracts.

Because the American bank doesn't want the thinly traded, weak- in- the- knees Korean
currency, the terms of the "undeliverable future" contract specifically state that the trade
will be settled for cash and in dollars.

So here's what some experts on Wall Street suspect happened.

The Korean currency got hammered a few months ago when the Korean government
refused to fight speculators who were taking it lower. That, of course, made the Korean
banks betting on the won in these "undeliverable future" contracts big losers. But the
Korean banks, already down on their luck, couldn't come up with the dollars to pay off
their bets to the Americans.

Too bad, you say? They should pay anyway?

Well, if this is what was happening, it's really too bad for the American banks and
companies that used this device to hedge against currency risk. If the Koreans can't pay,
they can't pay. The Americans will get stiffed. And if they've already booked these trading
gains as profits - well, they'll have to unbook them.

Nobody - except perhaps the Fed - knows how much exposure the Koreans have to
these "undeliverable forward" contracts. But the best guess is that $48 billion is the total
amount Koreans have invested in all derivatives - just short of the current size of the whole
Korean bailout.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 11:15 - ID#286230)
Morning sharefin: It is sunny in Toronto for the first time in over a week. There are still over 3 million people in Montreal - Ottawa
area freezing without electricity or heat and it will go on for a week or more in some area. Hopefully the sun is shining there and
will melt the 3- 5 inches of ice that have accumulated on everything. Not tourists are wanted at the moment.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 11:19 - ID#22451)
Scroll down to paragraph "WIRE- TAP" and click underline John Coleman or committee300, I can't remember which one. Once you download, you can save to file as it is +/- 300 pages. Either this guy is a nut or a genius.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 11:21 - ID#228128)
Rig counts
Aurophile: I have to disagree to some degree about your thoughts on rig counts as an indicator of economic activity. You don't just slap up a rig. Many are sold off during downturns and it is a slow process building new ones as there aren't many manufacturers. Others fall into disrepair. Also, the modern methods of exploration , 3- D seismic, etc, has led to newer types of rigs which must be built not refurbished. For example, the oil companies next big move in the gulf of mexico will be into deep water 2000 ft and deeper. Also, there is a food chain of distributors, parts suppliers, etc. that is rather extensive and needs time to get up and running when the boom starts. Finally, the trained men necessary to perform the work drift into new occupations and locations after a bust. I would expect that there is a time lag of 4- 5 years in economic activity and rig count.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 11:22 - ID#374294)
Pete..that URL didn't seem to work.. :(

(Sat Jan 10 1998 11:24 - ID#256254)
My favorite quote of the day...
Also from Steve's postings.

" Economists believe the US, with its endless supply of
dollars, could help Japan discipline the financial markets it if chose to. "

And herein lies the achilies heal in the Rubin/Greenspan solution. If you hve notice in the last few weeks, Canada,... and many other nations have been defending their currencies against the almighty U.S. dollar. Meaning they have been selling dollars to purchase their currency.

At the same time we have learned that foreign CB's have been selling treausries to bring money home.

These to actions have been given the BOYS some major heart aches. Vasty to many dollars in immediate circulation. The short term solution they have taken ( IMHO ) is to purchase treasuries.

No one talks about it, but as more dollars are dumped ( for whatever reason ) Rubin and company will drive treasuries rates down ... down to Japanese levels ??? I think not because then money will flow even faster elsewhere to get better deals.

Hiding the massive amounts of U.S. currency that is flowing BACK to the U.S. is a losing game. The first step in the falling dollar has started.

comments. ( look at the thought not the spelling and grammar please. Its a early morning post with no coffee )

(Sat Jan 10 1998 11:25 - ID#22451)
Use Infoseek- Type "Dr. John Coleman" and seek. There are over 100 url's that pertain to the article "Committee of 300"

(Sat Jan 10 1998 11:25 - ID#335184)
Crunch -Earnings stream vs. Market cap ?
Earning stream analysis is blown away in a mania blow off like 29 & 98, where drive for ever higher capital gains dwarf concern for dividend yield, so perhaps oz/AU- Dow cap ratio posted earlier today is a better gage of relative value. My recllection is that it is much hiher today, but othrs may confirm.
This is long winded apology for not having the data you requested .
Tar Baby

(Sat Jan 10 1998 11:29 - ID#57232)
Mexican Index Puts -- waking up - long night last night!
Crystal Ball, re your 9:44: I bought MEXOT, 100 striking price Mar 21 expiration date puts. I am still new at this, and do not have any software to calculate delta, etc., so please do not make any decisions without checking them out for yourself. My poor man's method has been to scan the price history, and choose out of the money puts that appear to respond well to the market forces. If I had more money to play with, I would choose a smaller number of in the money options ( higher commissions ) . I also prefer to get the latest expiration date possible, so that if I'm off on timing I have a little more leeway. I only use "funny money" since I generally do not make money on such trades. I have also learned the hard way to make only a few very promising trades such as this a year, since with options one has a time constraint. If you have an options program that you use - - inexpensive, please - - please let me know.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 11:30 - ID#284255)
Hey the sun's shining
Here's the latest weather map.
Last week there was 4 cycloes to the east of us, now there are none.
We have just had heaps of rain since before Xmas.
Seems like most of us kitcoites have been having wild weather.

And now the suns come out to play.
Even the sun's having a bad time.
Lots of scars on the surface.
Great pictures but slow to load large pictures when clicked upon.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 11:35 - ID#93232)
@ Cherokazzee....Everbody say yea!!!!! (yea...) NO...EVERYBODY SAY YEA!!!! (YEA!!)
Yesterday's report: 1. Irreparable damage to Dow ( we probably got at least a hundred new gold customers...more to follow ) . 2. A shiney load of Phillies are again presented me by mailman ( you know the one who has that far away look in his eyes ( YOU KNOW, like an Indian poppin' a pooch ) 3. Several mighty hits are mixed down at Studio Seven and it's my stuff ( I say mine, but we all know it was the other musicians...screw- day I'll play circles around them ) . 4. And gold was made just a little more affordable for us believers and knowers. Ooooohhhhh! he comes....make way!!! Ooooooohhhhhh!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 11:37 - ID#286230)
Is gold trading somewhere at the moment and if so at what price?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 11:39 - ID#374294)
Pete..I found it..thanks!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 11:45 - ID#93232)
Should I worry that this morning I see double...or, that I hear triple? Go Gold Scarabs...If I'm breathin'- - I'm laughin'! Everyday.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 11:49 - ID#335184)
Sharefin -Biblical Quote of the day; "Like a man fleeing from a roaring lion omly to turn ito a bear
That was some quote from Roach of Morgan Stanly in the article you posted, to the effect that in the mindless flight to US creit markets, market fundamentals only matter for a New York "nanosecond" & then they are totally disregarded !
The Lemmings are slouching toward the precipice and the sheep are already in the slauguter pen !
I suppose the ignition to the blast off out of US denominated securities could come from several sources now, the most likely culprit, a total Nekkei melt down to 6000. In my holy opinion, when the Dow exceeds the Neikki, we will see what edifices are stll standing, A La, the three littjle Pigs & who's lunch remains uneaten, A La, the Goldy Locks paradime shift !
I just don't think the Japanese will flinch until they reach a threshold of pain unamagiable to the occidental mind !
Tar Baby

(Sat Jan 10 1998 11:58 - ID#339274)
Rumor or fact
FWIW...Source tells me ABX looking at PDG ,synergy perfect.
PDG is undervalued for mines coming on stream.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 12:00 - ID#23782)
A quick and accurate method for calculating delta is:
put + call = total. Then divide call or put by total = delta.
example: call = 1/2, put = 1/4, then total = 3/4.
call delta = 1/2 divided by 3/4 = 66.66
put delta = 1/4 divided by 3/4 = 33.33

If you are familiar with conversions or reversals, just figure you know that you only need 2 of the 3 prices to figure the one you don't have.

Incidently, the delta is also the probability of the option being in the money at expiration.

Hope that helps.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 12:04 - ID#341214)
wert: Here is my original post to APH, whose opinion on e- waves I
hold in higher regard than my own, his answer and my reply to your
post which I have edited just a bit. I won't have time to study APH's
response in full until tomorrow ( Sunday ) but, after a quick glance, I
think APH feels that wave 3 up that started in late Oct 97 is
complete where as I feel we are in wave 4 of that wave 3. That is
only conjecture on my part and I'm hoping APH will shed a bit more
light on that. BTW - I think the bulls are well rested now and ready
to resume bear hunting next week so I went long on Friday at 5.65
basis March 98.


= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
APH: I'm an E- wave student with a question. My own objective for
silvers next leg up is 6.50. I added .90, the amount of wave 1 of 3, to
the 5.59 bottom of 4 of 3 you mentioned to get 6.50. Do you get that
additional .40 to 6.90 from the extended 5th waves we have been
having on the way up?

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
FundaMETAList - If wave 3 is slightly less then 1.618 of wave 1 the
mostly likely target for wave 5 is .618 of the distance from 0 to the
top of wave 3. If wave four bottoms at 5.60 the objective becomes

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
wert: Here is what I based my 6.50 on for the next leg up in silver.
Wave 3 started in late Oct 97 and the first leg went from about 4.70
to 5.60, a move of .90. I think we are still in that wave 3 with 4 of 3
either done or close to it. Next comes 5 of 3 with a new top. Since
wave 5 can be about the same size as wave 1 I added .90 to APH's
expected finish of wave 4 of 3 ( APH's 5.59, I came up with a bottom
of 5.66, a few cents higher ) . Once we get the new top at 6.50 or
higher, we go into corrective wave 4 and finally into wave 5 with an
even higher top. Is APH saying that wave 3 that started in late Oct is
finished? Maybe that is where we differ. I think that wave is still
ongoing but like I said, I'm a student of this subject. I have enjoyed a
few sucesses lately but I'm not to the point where I am definetely
dangerous to the person taking the other side of my trades.

Thanks in advance for any light you can shed on this.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 12:05 - ID#287277)
A. Goose, All: Gold as tribute....

From Davos to MC ?
Klaus Scwab, World Economic Forum

Geneva International Forum intl/gi/egi/egi194.htm

Sub- Theme: Trade & Finance: Capital Movements intl/gi/egimain/esth0702.htm

Financial Monitoring Center: intl/gi/egi/egi226.htm

From Activity Summary: ...dimensions and evolutions of financial systems in view of their contributions to the common good; to articulate independent assessments; and to formulate, on the basis of these assessments, recommendations and proposals of adjustments and developments there where it is seen necessary.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 12:07 - ID#254269)
@ Selby and all Canadians; I just stopped into the office to check my
e- mail and ( of course ) Kitco. I saw on the news last night about how bad it is up there with the ice storms. I really hope that not too much damage
will result to life and property. Hope everything's reasonably OK.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 12:08 - ID#238422)
@John Disney
John, I'm not wasting my time on Karlito.
I'm trying to have fun a la beer can.
It's pretty bad whether over here for
outdoor shooting, so I am at home...

It's interesting - LGB2 said: Do not
attack messanger instead of message - if we listen
to these words of LGB2 seriously then
logic says that if Karlito is just a messanger,
who in the hell is a meesage writer?
Looks like Karlito99 does not exist as a separate
participant, it is more of a ghost.

In which case it is perfectly call this ghost
any names you want, ghost cannot be offended, only
human being, and indeed, it is bad to offend human

99- ? Maxwell Smart ( from GET SMART TV series ) had
a girlfriend, also agent, I recall he always
called her "99".

Anyway, I feel "Karlito99" is a joint effort
by some group, will figure out pretty
soon what group, just need a few more
of Karlito's responses...

(Sat Jan 10 1998 12:12 - ID#225127)
start buying GOLD now?
The advantages of owning gold in finical upheaval has been clearly explained and emphasized at this site. I am not making a recommendation but if anyone hasn't started accumulating GOLD by NOW they should consider it. If you wait till the absolute low, the physiological games will leave you on the dock.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 10 1998 12:22 - ID#24140)
Will the REAL Karlito please stand UP

For Oris - you are obviously a trained and expert interrogator.

I am sure you are right. Karlita is not real. He/she is a plant.

It will talk about anything but its MOTIVES in being here.

I think it called me a piece of "human refuse" - but you're

right. Normally that would have made me cry but, like you

say, ghosts cant hurt anybody.

I think that rather than get nasty with it and LGB too

who seems to be its buddy - it to study them. We may learn


(Sat Jan 10 1998 12:24 - ID#286230)
Avalon: Thank you for the kind words. I'm basking in the sun but starting about 80 miles east of Toronto there are cities of 100000 going into the 3rd day without electricty and it is now about 25F in the area. Montreal has over a million people without heat for 4- 5 days now and the army is clearing the streets of tree branches etc. In a fine show of the best of America crews have come into Quebec from New England to help replace wires etc. In a show of the worst of American self centeredness with millions of people freezing in the dark all three US networks started their evening news earlier this week with some mad man who may- - or maynot - have tried to hang himself with his underware.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 10 1998 12:26 - ID#24140)
Take off the Mask
For Oris - you are obviously a trained and expert interrogator.

I am sure you are right. Karlita is not real. He/she is a plant.

It will talk about anything but its MOTIVES in being here.

I think it called me a piece of "human refuse" - but you're

right. Normally that would have made me cry but, like you

say, ghosts cant hurt anybody.

I think that rather than get nasty with it and LGB too

who seems to be its buddy - it to study them. We may learn


(Sat Jan 10 1998 12:29 - ID#287277)
And after you've had a look at THAT,
you had better check out the REDWG

(Sat Jan 10 1998 12:37 - ID#335184)
What if the trigger for total collapse of US market was just extreme under- valuation of AU, artificially driven down by western monetary, banking & government munipulatin, in the same way that the sudden realization of over- valuation that stocks have out stripped earnings potential frequently acts as the catalyst to violent down swings in the stock market.
At some vanishing point, the world ( read the Japanese ) will look up from their merchantile induced stupor/addiction to US Bonds & realize that the answer to their prayers is the irresistably low price of AU. When the world realizes that the current monarach ( RR & US $ ) sans credibility has no clothes, it will rush to AU.
Eat more possum ! Japs buy GOLD!!!!!!
Tar Baby
Thanks for your post Jap/US brinksmanship, as it was inspiration / dander for my post of 09:35
Did any one catch Abbie Joseph Cohen, Wallstreet PPT Rep from RR School of Merchant Bankers ( Goldman Sachs ) / US Stock market levitator AKA, Little BO PEEP, keeper of the mutual fund sheep on WALL STREET WEEK WITH LOUIE THE DIP ? That was some spread oh manure for her horse & pony act, but only Gail Dudack will go to heaven with her halo for her bear warning !

(Sat Jan 10 1998 12:38 - ID#335184)
What if the trigger for total collapse of US market was just extreme under- valuation of AU, artificially driven down by western monetary, banking & government munipulatin, in the same way that the sudden realization of over- valuation that stocks have out stripped earnings potential frequently acts as the catalyst to violent down swings in the stock market.
At some vanishing point, the world ( read the Japanese ) will look up from their merchantile induced stupor/addiction to US Bonds & realize that the answer to their prayers is the irresistably low price of AU. When the world realizes that the current monarach ( RR & US $ ) sans credibility has no clothes, it will rush to AU.
Eat more possum ! Japs buy GOLD!!!!!!
Tar Baby
Thanks for your post Jap/US brinksmanship, as it was inspiration / dander for my post of 09:35
Did any one catch Abbie Joseph Cohen, Wallstreet PPT Rep from RR School of Merchant Bankers ( Goldman Sachs ) / US Stock market levitator AKA, Little BO PEEP, keeper of the mutual fund sheep on WALL STREET WEEK WITH LOUIE THE DIP ? That was some spread oh manure for her horse & pony act, but only Gail Dudack will go to heaven with her halo for her bear warning !

(Sat Jan 10 1998 12:46 - ID#238422)
@John Disney
John, you're right - THERE ARE NO MOTIVES.
Karlito is not trying to become an investor
in gold, he/she/they is ( are ) trying to shaken
our ideas, and not to learn...

Karlito is also not having any fun with us -
Karlito's responses are too long for that,
it means KARLITO IS WORKING on this site...


Let's get Karlito99, I really started to hate
being considered a small guy, I want respect...

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:02 - ID#57232)
Logging off - got to go to work! Will check in later!
All: Please go see "Contact" with Jodie Foster as the SETI project astrophysicist, if you can - - best movie about contact with alien intelligence I have ever seen . Carl Sagan posthumously sponsored the movie - - a man who denied the existence of non- human intelligence in the universe to the day of his death, despite the fact that his books say just the opposite if your read them carefully enough. He was a master of saying what he was told to by the government on such matters. And - - I think he knew that the rules were slowly changing. This movie is much better in my opinion than 2001 or 2010.

Sharefin - - I saw your full moon post! I have also seen the full moon effect, though my experience has been ( with gold stocks ) that it marks a turning point - - but the investor has to choose the direction. Perhaps it is time for me to do as a careful analysis as the authors of your post. It also points out one very important point about intelligence. Those who fail to look at the data and approach all new or controversial ideas with an open mouth or a negative approach - - are condemned to an unchanging existence. The essence of intelligence is never to stop learning new things. And - the paradigm of our next era is the merging of hard science with the not- so- hard sciences. This requires analysis of massive quantities of inferential data, unlike the traditional experimental methods. This kind of work is slow and frustrating, but the reward will be our ticket to the stars, as well as ( I hope ) a better understanding of the human condition.

And I end this with a joke undoubtedly some of you have heard:

Question: Is there intelligence in the universe?

Answer: Perhaps, but it must be non- human.

See you all later! Will be interesting to see if the PPT can catch a falling knife next week.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:03 - ID#243250)
funda METAList:e-wave clarification post 12:04
funda: thanks for the clarification note this am. This e- wave stuff really taxes my last remaining neural- synp's. This will give me something to work on today as it's - 37c in the Cnd Rockies..... icefog etc. cold enough to freeze a fast dog and to cold to ski.....good for the natural gas biz tho......regards & thanks

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:08 - ID#286230)
John Disney__A: I have thought for some time- - probably about 4 months that Kitco is being used by at least 1 group trying to influence gold. Specifically the "unknown" but all knowing posters who have been suggesting that gold Should be bought. As gold has decline they continue to suggest it should be bought. I suspect European brokers trying to sell gold but it's just a guess. Remember this when we get - - another big trader- - post.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:09 - ID#31868)
In response, I say this, I wanted to see if I looked better with or without my moustache. So I shaved off half it last night before turning in.

Hmmmm, needless to say the remaining half was taken off this morning in a dwelling full of laughter. I am breathing.

I have fullfilled what it takes to make it a day. Ohhh my.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:15 - ID#254269)
@ Tolerant 1; What does the moustache indicator say about the direction of gold ?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:17 - ID#93232)
@ any Goldman Sucks brokers tuned in....
My ex- broker just called and told me ( and I know I shouldn't repeat this....sorry about the slur...but he said it ) ..."My dear friend, Friday killed more Jews than Auschwitz". He's jewish and a no cards and letters please.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:17 - ID#341214)
Speed: Silver Corner?
Speed: Thanks for the article on Martin Armstrongs's silver "manipulation" outlook. Methinks Mr Armstrong is short big time. There are a couple of red flags in his statements, one of which regards copper.
He mentions that copper has been going down in price, which means less will bemined. A large source of silver comes as a by product of copper
mining. Less copper mining means less silver mining. We have
had silver deficits since about the beginning of the 90's which has
shrunken the above ground silver supplies so it makes sense, to me
anyway, that lower copper prices will lead to higher silver prices.
The guy is trying to talk the market down so he can drop his shorts,
so to speak ( laughing thingy ) . And don't people pay big money for Princeton forecasts?


(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:20 - ID#310407)
@ John DissKnee
DIsney you finally said soemthing with which I can whole heartedly agree. Something with wisdom and a message that all should heed...namely, you said

"I think that rather than get nasty with it and LGB too who seems to be its buddy - it to study them. We may learn something"

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:20 - ID#347332)
Where is ANOTHER or BIGTRADER? I havent seen any
posts lately from ANOTHER.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:24 - ID#348129)
Great article in Globe and Mail on IMF/Camdessus Blunders.
Analysts are finally having the nerve to critisize these dangerous policies.
The ordinary people of Asia are forced to pay for the blunders of the large corporations and corrupt governments.
The only winners are the large international creditors who are getting their money back ( which they should have lost ) , by the actions of Camdessus and the IMF.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:25 - ID#287277)
All: Gold as tribute.... ) ID#287277:

From Davos to MC ?
Klaus Scwab, World Economic Forum

Geneva International Forum intl/gi/egi/egi194.htm

Sub- Theme: Trade & Finance: Capital Movements > intl/gi/egimain/esth0702.htm

Financial Monitoring Center: intl/gi/egi/egi226.htm

From Activity Summary: ...dimensions and evolutions of systems in
view of their contributions to the common good; to articulate independent
assessments; and to formulate, on the basis of these assessments,
recommendations and proposals of adjustments and developments there
where it is seen necessary.

When there are billions per week ( per day? ) to invest, one
needs to establish networks, power bases, conspiracy please...this is just business...

1. Note the number of 'cells', 'agencies', organizations, that were established circa 1970s...
2. Note UOB
3. Note Davos "Emerging World Leaders"; recall that POTUS
attended whilst still GovArk. Approved? Faustian? Remarkable.
4. Note breadth and scope, and focus on Transport and Finance
5. Look at REDWG; look at;look at, and appreciate,
the enormous complexity, diversity and reach of the network.
So much good, for so much power, for so few...

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:26 - ID#238422)
LGB2, you did not understand what John Disney said.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:27 - ID#243250)
KITCO stuff house-keeping that is what Werner from Brussels was up to!
Sheller and others re:full moon; agreed the moon phases are profound however, the full moon doesn't occur on Monday 26 Jan it occurs on the 28th, at least here in the Rockies. Will this not pose a timing problem with your prediction?.
Sharefin the INDU ref was a oblique reference to some material you left on the MetaStock for Java url..grinny thing.

Dave in CO
(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:28 - ID#215211)
Whenever I see a post from Karlito or LGB or a post containing same, I use the page scroll key. Unfortunately, recently I'm doing more scrolling than reading. Soon I will give up on this site for good because too many of the fine minds here are wasting their energy and attention on responding to entities who have agendas other than our own. Why are they here?

1. They enjoy kicking investors who are down
2. They thrive on the abuse they receive here
3. They are using us as contrary indicators
4. They are trying to save us from the demon gold
5. They are paid to be here, to propagandize and disrupt

LGB seems to me to fall in the 1 and 2 categories but I'll defer to someone with psychological or psychiatric training.

Karlito seems to me to be a software program which lurks for key words and phrases then pulls text from a "New Paradigm" database. Has anyone noticed a sense of humor or any human emotion in its writings?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:30 - ID#254269)
@ Ted; Good 9.00 post.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:31 - ID#348129)
@``Yes, yes, yes...I will support efforts to sell dollars,'' he was quoted as telling reporters.
How can people be so stupid to fall for this ????
Friday January 9, 9:39 pm Eastern Time
Indonesia backs public dollar sales- report

JAKARTA, Jan 10 ( Reuters ) - Indonesian central bank governor Sudradjat Djiwandono has said he welcomes efforts by members of the public to sell dollars to support the ailing rupiah, the official Antara news agency reported on Saturday.

``Yes, yes, yes...I will support efforts to sell dollars,'' he was quoted as telling reporters.

Bank Indonesia's Djiwandono was commenting on the sale of dollars by President Suharto's eldest daughter, Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana, at a state- owned bank on Friday in a public bid to restore confidence in the economy.

Asked if the central bank planned to issue an official statement urging businessmen to sell dollars, Sudradjat said he was considering the move.

Antara, which gave no further details, said Rukmana sold around $100,000 at a rate of 6,490 rupiah.

The rupiah fell almost 20 percent on Thursday, tumbling below 10,000 to the dollar for the first time. It rebounded to around 7,900/8,200 to the dollar on Friday.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:34 - ID#238422)
You did not understand what John Disney said.

When, for example, military catch an enemy prisoner,
the purpose of having enemy prisoner alive is not
to save the life of the enemy, but to learn about
enemy's plans, so the next military action can be

That is what John Disney said.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:36 - ID#390249)
Cyclist your 11:58 - ABX and PDG
Cyclist - is your source considered reliable? I had heard that PDG has some strong poison pills in place to supposedly discourage any takeovers. Also ABX is buying back their stock.

For personal reasons, I hope it doesn't happen.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:43 - ID#238422)
@ Dave in Co
Dave, you can not believe how accurate you are
calling this "99" a computer program. It is a programmed
sh*t indeed. For this reason I am pissed off.

I hate cyborgs. No mercy.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:49 - ID#285233)
Gold and Civilization
Here are few quotes to ponder and SAVE as we near the abyss that will change our lives:

"The desire for gold is the most universal and deeply rooted commercial instinct of the human race." - G.M.Loeb

"Gold was not selected by governments to be the monetary standard. Gold has developed for many centuries on the free market as the best money; as the commodity providing the most stable, honest and desirable monetary medium." - M.N.Rothbard

"The history of fiat money is little more than a register of monetary follies and inflations. Our present age merely affords another entry in this dismal register." - H.F.Sennholtz

"Ahose entrapped by the HERD instinct are drowned in the deluges of history. But there are always the few who observe, reason, and take precautions, and thus escape the flood. . For these few, gold has been the last resort." - A.C.Sutton

"Any child can figure out that everyone in a nation can not get rich by selling each other paper certificates at higher and higher prices." - J.Pugsley.

"Gold is more not less rational than paper money. Money holds its value so long as it is in limited supply; gold will always be in limited supply; paper and ink are not in limited supply. The gold system is much closer to a modern automatic scientific control system than the crude and relatively unstable system of paper." W. Rees- Mogg

"Historically, whenever an overall breakdown of a monetary system or financial system occurs, return to gold always restores order, revives confidence and brings back prosperity." - D.Hoppe

" .....there is a historical correlation between the intensity of the official attacks on gold and the severity of monetary crises. The gold standard sooner or later will return with the force and inevitability of natural law, for IT IS THE MONEY OF FREEDOM AND HONESTY" - H.F.Sennholtz

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:49 - ID#285233)
Gold and Civilization
Here are few quotes to ponder and SAVE as we near the abyss that will change our lives:

"The desire for gold is the most universal and deeply rooted commercial instinct of the human race." - G.M.Loeb

"Gold was not selected by governments to be the monetary standard. Gold has developed for many centuries on the free market as the best money; as the commodity providing the most stable, honest and desirable monetary medium." - M.N.Rothbard

"The history of fiat money is little more than a register of monetary follies and inflations. Our present age merely affords another entry in this dismal register." - H.F.Sennholtz

"Ahose entrapped by the HERD instinct are drowned in the deluges of history. But there are always the few who observe, reason, and take precautions, and thus escape the flood. . For these few, gold has been the last resort." - A.C.Sutton

"Any child can figure out that everyone in a nation can not get rich by selling each other paper certificates at higher and higher prices." - J.Pugsley.

"Gold is more not less rational than paper money. Money holds its value so long as it is in limited supply; gold will always be in limited supply; paper and ink are not in limited supply. The gold system is much closer to a modern automatic scientific control system than the crude and relatively unstable system of paper." W. Rees- Mogg

"Historically, whenever an overall breakdown of a monetary system or financial system occurs, return to gold always restores order, revives confidence and brings back prosperity." - D.Hoppe

" .....there is a historical correlation between the intensity of the official attacks on gold and the severity of monetary crises. The gold standard sooner or later will return with the force and inevitability of natural law, for IT IS THE MONEY OF FREEDOM AND HONESTY" - H.F.Sennholtz

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:49 - ID#238422)
@ Dave in Co
Dave, you can not believe how accurate you are
calling this "99" a computer program. It is a programmed
sh*t indeed. For this reason I am pissed off.

I hate cyborgs. No mercy.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:51 - ID#285233)
Gold and Civilization
Here are few quotes to ponder and SAVE as we near the abyss that will change our lives:

"The desire for gold is the most universal and deeply rooted commercial instinct of the human race." - G.M.Loeb

"Gold was not selected by governments to be the monetary standard. Gold has developed for many centuries on the free market as the best money; as the commodity providing the most stable, honest and desirable monetary medium." - M.N.Rothbard

"The history of fiat money is little more than a register of monetary follies and inflations. Our present age merely affords another entry in this dismal register." - H.F.Sennholtz

"Ahose entrapped by the HERD instinct are drowned in the deluges of history. But there are always the few who observe, reason, and take precautions, and thus escape the flood. . For these few, gold has been the last resort." - A.C.Sutton

"Any child can figure out that everyone in a nation can not get rich by selling each other paper certificates at higher and higher prices." - J.Pugsley.

"Gold is more not less rational than paper money. Money holds its value so long as it is in limited supply; gold will always be in limited supply; paper and ink are not in limited supply. The gold system is much closer to a modern automatic scientific control system than the crude and relatively unstable system of paper." W. Rees- Mogg

"Historically, whenever an overall breakdown of a monetary system or financial system occurs, return to gold always restores order, revives confidence and brings back prosperity." - D.Hoppe

" .....there is a historical correlation between the intensity of the official attacks on gold and the severity of monetary crises. The gold standard sooner or later will return with the force and inevitability of natural law, for IT IS THE MONEY OF FREEDOM AND HONESTY" - H.F.Sennholtz

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:51 - ID#348129)
@BART: Kudos for keeping this site up during the crisis. - The internet is truly invaluable.....
Downtown Montreal still mostly blacked- out since yesterday.
The water system was partially lost but has been restored.
1.2 million homes are still blacked out, some since Tuesday.
Trains are all down and Metro is partially restored.
The three main bridges are closed due to large chunks of falling ice.
Whole neigborhoods have been deserted and many families are living in emergency shelters.
The Canadian army has been called in by Separatist leader Lucien Bouchard to help in the emergency. It took him 3 days to finally relent and make the unimaginable move. This speaks volumes about how Quebec could survive as a separate nation without Canada.
Currently the weather has relented after 4 days of freezing rain, and the ice is finally coming off trees and power lines.
The Olympic Stadium roof is torn and unusable.
Some areas will not have power restored for up to 2 weeks.
Major damage occured to 3 hydro transmission lines.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:59 - ID#93232)
Re: Plants, er..Spies?
All of us have known guys that spend their precious time causing heat and arguments...What the hey? You saw 'em back in grade school. That's just their thing....beating themselves up trying to be smarter than everybody else. I, like virtually all of you, have busted my ass to have enough money to avoid having to be around them... You've heard their song before..."It's my party and I'll poop if I want to" Shang- a- lang- a- ding- dong.

Hell, now, EB thinks I'm Karlito's lover...momma cool hunk. Who's carin'? I'm woikin' on bigger deals...and I've been insulted by professionals.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 10 1998 13:59 - ID#24140)
Secret Agent Man
For Selby - Claro - "Big trader"'s agenda was to get

people to BUY gold while it was falling - But his efforts

were infrequent. He didnt work much. It was one or two

guys with accents. European brokers or bankers selling

gold calls would fit pretty well.

Karlita's agenda is the reverse. Also K is a higher

cost exercise - pretty well 2 shift coverage plus

weekends. It's easy to use this kind of a forum to

serve different objectives - its a cheap way to spread

a message or set a tone. My agenda like most here was/is

to share information, have some fun, and to make money.

Point 3 hasnt been successfull. Okay for puts on s& p

and buys on RSA plat mines ( lebowa mainly which was luck

) but lousy for golds. Should never try to fight a trend

until it has changed direction. And Im still doing it.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 14:00 - ID#224149)
To All.The market is where it is because that is where it is supposed to be, and it is supposed to be there because that is where it is.

Anything beyond that is simply propaganda, which more than likely comes from those who either don't trade or don't trade successfully. Therefore I strongly suggest that you NOT listen to CNBC , read the Wall Street journal, call your broker for advice, etc. Instead I suggest that you listen only to the market. Thank You Bill Williams for the millions.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 14:00 - ID#424245)
Indonesian troubles could greatly impact major economies...
A front page story in the San Jose Mercury News today cited the Indonesian economic troubles as potentially having grave implications for the world's major economies, especially Japan and the U.S.. The paper's Web site does not offer full on- line access to stories without a commercial membership, so I can not link this brief to that story. It is also too long to copy here, but I submit the following extracts for their relevance to this forum...

...the worst may be yet to come. Experts fear that the panic food- buying following an economic meltdown this week is a signal of social and political upheaval, not only in Indonesia but throughout the region.

"I think the situation is very serious," said Walter Falcon, director of Stanford University's Institute of International Studies, who has spent 25 years studying Indonesia. "I don't know what I believe now about the Asian model of economic development, and I feel threatened about the American economy."

Falcon and other Indonesia watchers are concerned that the deepening financial crisis will sink tens of millions of Indonesians below the absolute- poverty level of $1 per day and unleash ethnic, religious and class rivalries that could tear the country apart.

If that happened, they warn, shock waves would rock the region, further weakening financial markets, reducing trade and greatly increasing the impact on the world's major economies, especially those of Japan and the United States.

Robert Manning, a former policy adviser to the State Department and now a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, D.C., already sees social unrest inevitable in South Korean, Thailand and other countries hit by the financial crisis that began six months ago with the collapse of the Thai currency, the baht.

But it is Indonesia that faces the gravest immediate threat, he and Falcon said.

"I think that in relative terms, Indonesia is worse off," Falcon said. "The Philippines seems to be muddling through; Malaysia is probably rich enough to weather it; Thailand is still taking it on chin, but I think it will come through; and South Korea is too important strategically ( to the United States ) to let it go down. Indonesia is big enough to be really important, but not quite important enough to be strategic."


Almost all top business leaders are ethnic Chinese...and widely resented.


But rifts between ethnic Chinese and other ethnic groups are not the only tensions that threaten Indonesia, Ramage and other say. [Doug Ramage - Asian Foundation's representative to Indonesia] The nation's military is divided into several factions, and the Muslim majority is split between those eager to transform Indonesia into an Islamic state and those who want to retain a secular form of government.

Even before the financial crisis, festering tensions in the nation of 203 million had sparked attacks on Buddhist temples and Christian churches, as well as on Chinese businesses.


Compounding the nation's financial crisis is a serious drought that has caused widespread misery in the more remote areas of the sprawling archipelago, which consists of more than 17,000 islands. Hundreds of thousands of Indonesians are believed to be threatened with starvation.

Indonesia's crisis is being watched anxiously in Japan, which is suffering it's own troubles. Japan has more than $20 billion worth of investments in Indonesia, more than in any other Asian country.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 14:00 - ID#348129)
@" President Clinton, who once described Asia's financial turmoil as "a glitch in the road,"
Friday, January 9, 1998

U.S. steps highlight its concern about Asia

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - President Clinton, who once described Asia's financial turmoil as "a glitch in the road," is sending a top- level delegation to tour the region as concern mounts about the Asian economic crisis.
 The White House announcement followed a telephone call late Thursday between Clinton and Indonesian President Suharto and news that the International Monetary Fund was also sending its top officials to the region.
 "The United States has significant national security and economic interests in a stable and prosperous Asia Pacific," spokesman Mike McCurry said in a statement Thursday explaining the U.S. actions.
 "That is why the United States has supported the economic reform programs developed by several Asian countries with the IMF and stressed the importance of their successful implementation."
 Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea have all received billions of dollars in loans from the IMF in rescue deals backed by promises of help from neighboring countries and from rich industrialized states.
 But the bailouts - - worth a total of $100 billion - - have yet to restore market confidence in a region once famed for its rapid growth. Currencies across the region have tumbled to new lows and many states are set to slip into recession.
 Recent concern has centered on the problems of Indonesia, whose $40 billion rescue package includes $10 billion from the IMF. The rupiah currency crashed almost 20 percent Thursday, although it regained some lost ground Friday.
 London bankers said it was too early to talk about a recovery. "Although there has been a rebound, we have not seen any change to the situation that would warrant it," said Sara Zervos, emerging markets analyst at BZW.
 "Unless we see some firm statement of intent from the ( Indonesian ) government on outstanding debts or on IMF reforms, then it's very hard to say this is the start of any recovery."
 U.S. administration officials said Clinton urged Suharto to press on with the reforms, which are designed to eliminate the worst excesses of "crony capitalism" in the country of 200 million people.
 The White House said U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers would travel to the region soon to consult with officials there.
 Clinton, who spoke to Suharto for some 20 minutes from aboard the presidential plane, Air Force One, said in November that the Asian economic crisis was "a glitch in the road," although he quickly qualified the statement.
 "We need to work very hard on this. We don't need to be at all casual. We should also have confidence that we can work through it," he said the following day.
 The U.S. Treasury could give no details about Summers' agenda, but the trip is expected to start at the weekend and include visits to Indonesia and to Singapore.
 The White House said Clinton had also spoken to Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, whose island state is contributing $5 billion to the Indonesian rescue deal.
 Both the IMF and the U.S. administration have made clear that they are worried about Indonesia's commitment to the economic reform program underpinning the rescue deal, and both have urged Suharto to bring the program back on track.
 "We'd like to accelerate the program and strengthen it because a lot of people believe the Indonesian government wasn't really committed to the program," First Deputy IMF Managing Director Stanley Fischer told CNN television on Thursday.
 He made clear IMF funding would stop if this did not take place. "The program cannot go ahead if the Indonesian government isn't supporting the measures that it said it would do," he said.

Spud Master
(Sat Jan 10 1998 14:01 - ID#273112)
@JTF & unfortunate movie choice...
"Contact" is close to the WORST sci- fi movie about contact with an alien culture ( not counting the Washington D.C. Beltway ) . The worst is, of course, the Bill Clinton appologist "Independance Day" - awesomely lame, sci- fi sugar coating around social opinion engineering.

A few points:

1 ) Sagan's novel was sliced, diced and preverted in the making of the movie. A ***TEAM*** of men and women go to meet the aliens. In the movie, it is turned into just another women- feminists- first movie. Sexism is wrong in ALL its forms. Wrong when men do it, and wrong when women do it.

2 ) There was very little of Sagan's attention to SCIENCE in the movie, and WAY TOO much to the SCIENCE/POLITICS: think about: we, the viewers are constantly being reinforced with the image of government officials as being all- wise. The alien "machine" is more or less just a gee- whiz computer graphic prop. I am no longer impressed by them. Seen one computer FX, seen them all. The bulk of the movie, like the previous abortion "Independance Day" concerns itself with ***SOCIAL ENGINEERING***. That touchy- feely, romance plot between Jodie Foster and the psuedo- atheist "preacher" had no place in the book.

3 ) Finally, the movie, in the most crass, under- handed money- making grab lately, **EXPLOITED** the death of Carl Sagan to make a buck. Our leading athetist- politico- scientist has died - let us all open our wallets and grieve cathartically, vicariously.

Why is it that we all turn our brains off when something "emotional" is shoved at us? Sagan was OK, but he was not God. He was, in fact, implicated in the deceptive- bogus "Nuclear Winter" theory, playing fast & loose with the facts when it suited him.

4 ) Rent the video "COSMOS" if you'd like to see Sagan at his best. Forget "Contact".

5 ) If you want some fine sci- fi, find the works of author Stanislav Lem. "Fiasco" and "Eden" are two outstanding first- contact novels that totally outclass "Contact".

(Sat Jan 10 1998 14:03 - ID#373336)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Friday January 9, 5:41 pm Eastern Time

Company Press Release

Pegasus Gold Closes Hedge Book

SPOKANE, Wash.- - ( BUSINESS WIRE ) - - Jan. 9, 1998- - Pegasus Gold Inc.

( PGU: AMEX, TSE, ME ) announced that the lenders under the Company's

revolving credit facility have notified Pegasus that they consider

all amounts payable under the credit facility accelerated, although

they have not yet demanded repayment.

``After consultation with counsel, we have informed our lenders that

we disagree with their interpretation of the revolving credit

agreement and have reserved our rights concerning their actions,

'' said Werner G. Nennecker, President and Chief Executive Officer.

Under the Company's convertible subordinated notes, acceleration of

the revolving credit indebtedness would constitute an event of

default. The Company disagrees that its revolving credit

indebtedness is accelerated, due and payable.

In addition, over the past several weeks the majority of the

Company's gold and other hedge contracts, including foreign exchange

contracts, have been closed out. The repurchase of the gold hedges

generated a gain of approximately $74.5 million. Pegasus still has

forward contracts on 48,000 ounces of gold for delivery in 1998 at

an average realized price of $524 per ounce. The remaining gold

hedge position has a mark- to- market value of approximately $10.8 million at a gold price of $285 per ounce.

The termination of the Australian dollar hedges generated a loss of approximately $18.6 million. The lenders have notified the Company

that they have exercised their right to set- off proceeds of approximately $58 million from the termination of gold contracts

against foreign currency losses of $2.4 million and the balance

against amounts owing under the revolving credit facility. The

remaining foreign currency losses of $16.2 million have not been settled with the financial institutions.

Statements in this release which are not historical data are forward

looking and involve a number of risks and uncertainties, including

but not limited to the price of gold and other commodities and currencies, production, construction and permitting or regulatory delays, reserve estimation of tonnage, grade and metallurgical recoveries, exploration success and reserve growth, litigation,

capital costs, and other risks that are detailed in the Company's

SEC filings.

Pegasus Gold Inc. is an international gold mining company

headquartered in Spokane, Washington. Pegasus, a Canadian company by

incorporation, currently produces about 475,000 ounces of gold from

its operations. The Company carries out exploration internationally

through offices located in Santiago, Chile; and Panama City, Panama.

The common shares of Pegasus are traded under the symbol PGU on the

American, Toronto and Montreal stock exchanges. Options on the

Company's common shares are traded on the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the Montreal Exchange.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


Pegasus Gold Corp.

John W. Pearson, 509/624- 4653

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Dave in CO
(Sat Jan 10 1998 14:10 - ID#215211)
@John Disney - Leo Durocher's wife's costar
Was it Joel McCrea? ( I forgot the question )

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 10 1998 14:10 - ID#24140)
Karlita may be citizen X
For Boris and Dave in Co.

You see what a dumbo LGB is - All I want to do is get

him in a little room and ask him some questions. But I

think Dave has him pegged - Nobody in their right mind

would pay him for anything - he's too thick to hire.

Observations on K are first class - no humour - no

sign of humanity.

Boris - have you seen "Citizen X" - about Russian

serial killer - they called in a psychiatrist for

a personality profile - That's what we need for K, BT,

and LGB ( probably a waste of time in his case ) .

(Sat Jan 10 1998 14:13 - ID#286230)
John Disney As I have said too many times I got out of gold at about $385- - although I have hope that Flag Resources will put me back in to it maybe Monday but one day or another- - next week. I find trying to stay out of the gold market for almost 18 months has its excitment too. As long as I tune into the enthusiasm here I keep wondering if I should buy back. So far I'm guessing right but one day I will be wrong and then I'll be scrambling for the phone about $30 too late.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 14:17 - ID#256254)

It may be only me, but I can't get any of your links to work??

SDRer__A ( ) ID#287277:
All: Gold as tribute.... ) ID#287277:

Barb Hughes
(Sat Jan 10 1998 14:36 - ID#20783)
Price of Gold...!!!!!
Doesn't look like there is much between
271 spot and 248.
The trend is your freind...
Don't trade against it!
Hope we don't test these numbers!...###@..

(Sat Jan 10 1998 14:37 - ID#243250)
funda: You are probably away- a- head of me on this one; but I neglected to mention in my last post that "yauger/index.hmtl#home is an excellent e- wave site. It is updated every Sat. or so....regards

Spud Master
(Sat Jan 10 1998 14:39 - ID#273112)
@LGB - when has he expressed sorrow for the South East Asians?
Come on, Herr LGB! The one thing no liberal can deal with is a *fair* debate. Anyone, of course, who disagrees with you must be a racist, no?
Why not add cannibalism, Yellow Supremist, and Hispanocentric as well? This is the tried & true method used in the liberal press to silence debate.

Doesn't scare me, old boy. My position on the defense of all peoples, regardless of sex, race, creed or "preference" ( cough ) is well known; I will defend them with my life. Unlike our Coward In Chief.

You and your ilk, however, owe your alliegence to the cabal of well- dressed thugs, politicians and money- manipulators who ARE, EVEN AS I WRITE THIS continuing to economically rape, pillage and burn millions & millions of innocent South East Asians. Do you care about them & what has happened - or do you only care about preserving your "good life" via paper instruments, no matter how many lives be ruined?

No, your kind doesn't were black leather suits with twin lightening strokes insignia anymore - computers make the "business" so much neater, cleaner these days. But I recognize you in your words just the same.

Spud Master
(Sat Jan 10 1998 14:46 - ID#273112)
were = where, preverted = perverted ( although that one's pretty funny - Karlitan slip? )

(Sat Jan 10 1998 14:47 - ID#285233)
History Repeats
The Great Depression of 1929 did not start in the US. It began months before in Europe while the US DOW was still roaring ahead. This time the fuse, which has been lit in Asia for about 6 months is about to reach the US bomb. Anyone still in stocks/mutual funds deserves what surely is about to happen. Beware of the idea that the events of our time are unprecedented. Perhaps just the degree of it.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 14:48 - ID#426220)

Tsunami Tidal Wave of Stock Market Loses Wash Over Asia

During the last six months of currency chaos and stock market havoc - both which continue as I speak - the average citizen of the average country of this Southeast Asia, who had the foresight of converting his currency into GOLD, would now be about 76% RICHER - reflecting the average increase in gold's value in the five besieged paper currencies.

Five charts showing the explosive price rise in Asian currencies ( Indonesia, Korea, Thailand, Malaysia & the Philippines ) will indeed convince even the most skeptical that only GOLD is providing a safe harbor for local investors. The rising gold price trend in local currencies is literally ORBITAL.

Regrettably, most Asians must RELEARN the universal and timeless truism: GOLD IS THE ULTIMATE STANDARD OF VALUE, and paper is just paper!

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 10 1998 14:56 - ID#24140)
Dave you are the MAN
For Dave

You got the Answer - The question was who was her

co star in foreign correspondent - a hitchcock film

that also starred ROBERT BENCHLEY, george saunders,

and herbert marshall. A great scene in which a

camdessus lookalike in whacked by an assassin pretending

to be taking a photograph of him with a press camera.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 15:03 - ID#287277)
A. GOOSE intl/gi/egi/egi194.htm

This is correct and works, but it may be one of those
sights one needs to access 'directly', so cut and paste
to the url line.

Also, be sure and attend to banks/finance at site.

Any acronym searches should use RED, ROT, ROUGE, ROSSO
( because we humans tend to 'stick' with a pattern.

Be sure to check out

Then ponder. Emailed a lot of this stuff to you ( and others
in disparate parts of the world.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 15:06 - ID#26793)
I think Australians lay claim to the start of the Depression in 1927

(Sat Jan 10 1998 15:22 - ID#22956)
..............Rainy Saturday stuff.................
I would urge many to reread the latest post from Barb Hughes.....Barb, here's to making 'friends'...


it is getting rather petty at kitco today.....hmmmmmmmm...cannot we all get along??!?

Ted - ya gotta love Larry Johnson....DOH!

Salty - pumpkin is my Favorite......mmmmmmm good! ( lip smacking ) ....

lgb - 33% of todays silver price is $3.78. I thought you said you bought most of your silver at $4.30. There seems to be some discrepancy...hmmmmmm...par for the course I guess.

Lurker777 - I apologize for the outburst yesterday.....picking you from the crowd was not right. Still friends?? And yes, the 280 did NOT hold. Now what?? Will you follow the trend??

Studio ( cat ) R - Lovers??!? that you mention it.......

Now, what of this oil thing. Oil follows gold?? Or gold follows oil.... Those oil shares have got to be a decent bargain by now, no??

Crystall Ball - Hi.

John D - You want to move back here, don't you? Hot Dogs, Apple Pie, Baseball.....muggings........c'mon back you ole Yankee Doodle!!

Haggis - I still love you man!!!!!

SPUDS - aristocrat?? I can barely spell it much less be one. But if you say so......I really don't understand you sometimes. Do you have anything NICE to say......ever??? To Anybody?????!? You are Reeeeaaaaally Bitter aren't you?? How much have you lost since January?? It's alright Mr potato....things will get better, I promise. gold prediction... board the elevator


(Sat Jan 10 1998 15:24 - ID#25588)
FundaMETAList - Here is my analysis of the E's with projections based on the March
Silver Contract:
430.6 bottom 7/16
540.0 wave 1 top 9/30
468.5 wave 2 bottom 10/20
639.5 wave 3 top 12/24 with a breakaway gap dead un the middle
Here is where the position of the market becomes more clear. A good e wave count will
rest within a well defined parallel line channel. Draw a trend line across the highs of 7/10
and the wave one high on 9/30, that line crosses slightly below the wave 3 high. Draw a
PARALLEL line off the wave 2 low on 10/20. That line comes in between 550 and 555
next week.
580.0 wave a of 4
619.0 wave b of 4
Projected wave 4 bottom
if a = c 559.5
50% of wave 3 = 554
low point of channel line 550
560- 550 wave 4 this week
Wave 5, In the metals market wave 5 tends to be the extened wave. If we assume 555 is
the low .619 of wave 0- 3 would proj. 684, 1.00 = 764, 1.618 = 893.
I perfer the 764 number, this would bring the market to the top and within the channel
line in about 50 days ( .618 of the number of days between 0- wave 3 ) .
This whole sequence would be wave I of a much larger wave.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 15:31 - ID#93232)
@Spud Meister...for your satisfaction....
Excerpt from "Big Time Operators" written by Van Morrison published by Exile Productions Ltd., copyright 1993:

"Oh, they looked like politicians
But underneath they were thugs
And they spread malicious rumors
Threatened to have me busted for drugs
They had nothing on me, man
I was really clean
But they were big time operators
On the business scene

They were glorified by the media
They were heroes that had names
They said they would bury me
If I didn't play their game
They said I didn't know the score
That I was young and green
They were big time operators
On the business scene..."

How 'bout that, Pard?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 15:32 - ID#93232)
@Spud Meister...for your satisfaction....
Excerpt from "Big Time Operators" written by Van Morrison published by Exile Productions Ltd., copyright 1993:

"Oh, they looked like politicians
But underneath they were thugs
And they spread malicious rumors
Threatened to have me busted for drugs
They had nothing on me, man
I was really clean
But they were big time operators
On the business scene

They were glorified by the media
They were heroes that had names
They said they would bury me
If I didn't play their game
They said I didn't know the score
That I was young and green
They were big time operators
On the business scene..."

How 'bout that, Pard?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 15:37 - ID#304282)
When does Intel report?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 15:40 - ID#286199)
fundaMETAList and Silver manipulation
I posted the WSJ article as a result of the Thursday info from D.A. and Glenn. It proves that they are on the cutting edge, though on different sides of the market. There is considerable concern that the silver market is being manipulated, first by a group seeking to drive the price up ( yea! ) and second by a group seeking to drive the price down ( government? booo hiss ) . The threat of a lawsuit against "manipulators" has been made only against those who are driving the price up. The whole thing reeks. Somebody ought to sue the group trying to drive stuff down via the rumor mill and their willing lackeys in the press. I am long silver in SSC, BMG, and coins. Go SILVER! SSC hung tough this week at 1.00 per share.

BART: It takes a verrrrry looooonng tiiime toooo refressssh your page.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 15:43 - ID#31868)
It took me a while to stop laughing at your post. Truth is I am stifled. I have no comeback. Funny, verrrrry funny. I think I am upset because not only am I the brunt of the joke, I am the joke. Hmmmmmm

Barb Hughes
(Sat Jan 10 1998 15:47 - ID#20783)
"A Flash from the PAST!"
25 yrs ago more or less....
Oil $10bbl AU $180oz

Discipline!!! Discipline!!! Discipline!!!

NO Emotion!!! NO Emotion!!! NO Emotion!!!


(Sat Jan 10 1998 15:47 - ID#22956)
************** PATTERN ALERT*****************
Platinum is in a Pennant the breakout. Monday will be the breakout and it will be a BUY!!!!!! Buy the a.m. if you can!! Or wait and buy after confirmation....for the more conservative.

Disclaimers apply........DO YOUR HOMEWORK!!

oh yeah......Ted informed me that he can't post ( because his access to kitco was denied, ie. he can't drink Coladas and post at the same time ) so he wanted me to say a few things on his behalf:

He said that the Packers will win the Stupor Bowl, the Nicks are a terrible basketball team, he is shorting gold on the open Monday, he really LOVES Cape Breton, he made enough brownies for all kitcoites and will send some to whoever wants is ,he wants Spuds to shut his pie hole ( yuk, yuk ) , he wants John Disney to buy ABX on Monday open ( great buy ) , and he is a closet socialist with ties to ROR's law firm, he is really a lawyer and his biggest client is The Canadian Postal employees. He owns NO stox and has ALL his money in gold shares and bullion ( aluminum ) . I'm sure I left a few details out and I apologize to Ted. Oh yeah...and he LOVES the ShaQ!! Gotta go get more info from Ted....... the land of milk and honey


(Sat Jan 10 1998 15:47 - ID#263133)
Am I now a member in standing?
Been an ardent reader of dialogue at this site for a little over a year now. In that time, I often see references to how much some individual has lost or gained in the gold and/or equities market. It seems that a certain credence ( or begrudged sympathy ) is afforded those who have gained or lost big on those investments, and that those individuals are then held in some esteem as either good at investing or sympathised as a should have been contraian investor. Let me tell you, I am apparently one who should bet the opposite of what I believe the pm market will do. I bet long platinum as it was going up, buying in stages all the way. Even allowed myself to get caught up in hedging and ending up having to remortgage the house and cash out some IRA's. Lesson learned I guess ( hope ) , even though I am at the age that these leesons should have been learned long ago. Currently, I am down $100,000 plus, a major portion ( 30% ) of my entire net worth, accumulated over 50 years of hard work. Hope I can at least qualify for some sort of memnbership here now ( hope it's not "the leading idiot" ) . Need everyones prayers that a dramatic upswing will occur with platinum within my lifetime.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 15:50 - ID#304282)
Prudent bear fund
Bearx was up 3.5% Friday.- more big gains to come. Bearx is the #1 performing fund over the last 3 months- up 19% !

(Sat Jan 10 1998 15:51 - ID#238295)
Mikey: This forum is better off without Another's nonsense.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 15:51 - ID#339274)
On the one hand I cannot see Placer coming to the altar,different culture West versus the Eastern Establishment.Howeverthe the other side this marriage will give it enormous power that I don't like to see happening vis a vis the small producers.
Placer merged in the early 80's with Dome Mines when gold was
also going down the chute.Placer has a crusty image and Barrick
has the mover and shaker image.To believe that ABX is going to
buy back their own shares I still have to see,IMO it is all a
smoke screen. Barrick is on the war path and is waiting patiently
with their bankers for all those properties tpo come in their lap.
Why should they hurry when they can buy properties 10c on the Dollar
I like Barrick as a trading verhicle, a proxy for the Xau and
its liquidity.Lots of rumors are flying around and it was interesting
that if that rumor is coming to pass,it would create a juggernaut.
Happy trading : )

(Sat Jan 10 1998 15:54 - ID#304282)
Stock Market Crash page

(Sat Jan 10 1998 15:55 - ID#93232)
@EB.....l was abused as a, beat me.
My mechanical engineering father- in- law once told me that elevators fall "up" if they your head brother...could be a wild ride to the stars...and beyond....whoooaaaaa!!!!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:02 - ID#31868)
As far as being the leading idiot you have a long way to go to catch me and get the Kitco dimwit badge of courage.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:03 - ID#23782)
That last post of yours qualifies you as a DINK.
If you don't apoligize within 20 minutes, you
will live the rest of your life as a DINK.


(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:08 - ID#23782)
i take it all back. I check the times.


In fact I enjoy reading your point of view

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:16 - ID#258129)
Full Moon
Couple of hours from now there was a vary intriguing message, re- posted from Avid about full moon influence on stock markets. Like "The best day to be short is the THIRD day after the full moon trading day", etc. I have checked it for Amsterdam stock exchange market 1996- 1997 data. No statistically significant correlation found. Currently I am also short on some paper stocks and my charts show that US and Europe markets will continue to decline next week, but it has nothing to do with a moon cycle.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:17 - ID#26793)
The New Era is here
Alan Abelson in Barron's Monday issue makes the point that the 10% drop in the DJIA of October 27th, 1997, was the first 10% decline since 1939 that was not associated with an interest rate increase.

A second item; quoting Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates and in line with my comments to JTF last night. There is not enough money to bail out all the countries that are looking for one.

Dave in CO
(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:21 - ID#215211)
@Barb Hughes
What would $10 oil and $180 gold translate to after 25 years of inflation? Or does your PREDICTION exclude inflation? What is the TIMETABLE for your PREDICTION?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:24 - ID#22956) in perspiration??
what is a dink and why was I one for five whole minutes?? what 'times' are you talking about? I don't get it man...



(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:24 - ID#364147)
Well I'll be hog-tied........can I actually-------------
POST....Must be some weird circuits in between Cape Breton +
Time ta scroll~~~~~~back in time...

Spud Master
(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:25 - ID#273112)
@Multiple targets...
For Studio.R: Nice, very nice. My thanks. Btw, can you find the complete words to the old Depression Era song that goes:

"Once I built a rail- road,
Now it's gone,
Buddy, can you spare a dime?"

For EB: I don't spend all my time spying on people. I have other things to do" ( No.2, The Prisoner, circa 1970 ) . Don't be so bitter old boy. Cheer up. I know these 200 point a day drops hurt, but the sooner you come over to honest gold, the quicker you'll be over the pain & loss.

For LGB: "Unrighteous person, how do you plead?" ( The Spanish Inquistion, Monty Python, circa 1972 ) .

For Karlito99: Give my regards to Wintermute.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:27 - ID#288295)
APH Silver Elliott Waves

APH - Thanx a ton for the EW analysis of silver; been looking for someone who's better at this than I am. Let us know when wave 5 ( of 1 ) is over, please.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:32 - ID#364147)
This is a total LIE.....infact it's the 'big lie'.....EB(15:47)------go gold
....Ted informed me that he can't post ( because his access to kitco was denied, ie.
he can't drink Coladas and post at the same time ) so he wanted me to say a few things on
his behalf:

He said that the Packers will win the Stupor Bowl, the Nicks are a terrible basketball team,
he is shorting gold on the open Monday, he really LOVES Cape Breton, he made enough
brownies for all kitcoites and will send some to whoever wants is ,he wants Spuds to shut his pie hole ( yuk, yuk ) ,
he wants John Disney to buy ABX on Monday open ( great buy ) , and he is a closet socialist
with ties to ROR's law firm, he is really a lawyer and his biggest client is The Canadian Postal
employees. He owns NO stox and has ALL his money in gold shares and bullion ( aluminum
) . I'm sure I left a few details out and I apologize to Ted. Oh yeah...and he LOVES the
ShaQ!! Gotta go get more info from Ted....... the land of milk and honey


Return to Kitco Homepage

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:34 - ID#364147)
I've never been sooooo outRAGED

Barb Hughes
(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:37 - ID#20783)
@Dave in CO
Was NOT a PREDICTION, only a statement of fact...what was...
If you want to make a point gold/oil...look at
brent vs london AU.

I think gold is the only commodity in the past 25yrs that's
gone up and not retraced it's path to wince it started from
or lower. Don't have charts... just memory.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:38 - ID#269191)
Karlito is actually quite amusing.
His repeated ignorance of commonly known historical facts is quite amusing.

Dave in CO
(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:38 - ID#215211)
@Spud Master - It can't happen here (again) - some of the words:
Once I built a railroad
Made it run,
Made it race
Against time
Once I built a railroad
Now it's done
Brother can you spare a dime?
Say don't you remember
They called me Al
It was Al all the time
Say don't you remember
I'm your pal
Buddy can you spare a dime?

Spud Master
(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:39 - ID#273112)
"take the tablets, tiger"

and now, a special request for Studio.R, Cole Poter's apropo song "Anything Goes" made for the Great Market Crash of 1998.

( Spuds, tossing his bottle of Vichy Water in the wastepaper can )

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:39 - ID#364147)
As Mr Eb will attest to -------------------------
I'm in 'hot water' on the Cape Breton discussion group ( someone musta broke in and used my computer- - - wasn't ME ) - - - will they deport me??- - - - - - - - - - - hope so~~~~~can't anyone take a joke???

Bob M
(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:41 - ID#26059)
Anothers posts
If what Another says about gold going up $100 the first day, $200 the second day, then trading no more, it seems conceivable that thois will be the way the little guy in the stock market will get burned in reverse...the Dow down 1000 points the first day, 2000 the second day, then trading halted...seems plausible

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:42 - ID#93232)
@Ted...I know just how you feel man.....
EBarb accused me of having a homo- sapien relationship with Karlito...I try to understand, but it still hurts....I know he's under a lot of pressure grinding lens...but that's still no excuse. Class action suit?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:43 - ID#329157)
for Spud Master
Lyrics "Brother, can you spare a dime"
Brother and Buddy are used interchangeably... didn't some president just get a dog called Buddy?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:46 - ID#162309)
Chalk one up for the bugs
I've got a job interview with Goldman Sachs in New York on Monday. Of course, I would never work for those bastards, no matter how much they paid me. I'm going to have lots of fun with this one - - I'm taking a good friend out for a nice dinner on Goldman's account. A small victory for a young goldbug

- Organ

Spud Master
(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:46 - ID#273112)
Thanks, big guy = ) I've wanted this one for *ages*.

For EB/Ted- in- drag: It's "shut your cake- hole, you Nazi"

Spuds, not having much fun in Stalingrad today,
LINT'ing a slab of bloody C++ code...

Dave in CO
(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:48 - ID#215211)
@Barb Hughes
Now I understand your point of view: gold is a commodity. Thanks.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:48 - ID#26793)
Frantic shoppers with fistfulls of rupiah; the third day of panic.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:48 - ID#28585)
ONCE AGAIN (Aurator's special request)GOOD NEWS FOR GOLD INVESTORS!..
Before I went to bed last night, I promised there would be delicious news Friday for gold investors. Whether they realize it or not, gold's close below $280 along with the Dow's dramatic and complete reversal of October 97's rebound is the great news they have been waiting for.

Ever since I can remember ( but certainly not less than the last 12 years ) , I have heard a figure thrown out by gold producers time and time again. $280...$280...$280...that inconceivable price at which most major gold producers would shut down operations ( if it were ever reached ) simply because at any lower price, not only would they not
generate profits but they would not be able to make basic operating payrolls.

I have had a number of frank conversations with significant mining executives over the past several years and that hypothetical price has almost always come up in conversation..."the impossible price at which we shut down, go home, and watch TV"

I believe the "capitulation" point the technicians have talked about was reached Friday in the gold market. According to technical theory, capitulation normally occurs upon a dramatic drop in price along with extremely high volume. However, the actual psychological capitulation point for gold producers occurred Friday. It is quite possible that, in
today's somewhat aberrational markets where past logic does NOT hold the test of time ( the New Paradigm, as Wall Street bulls call it ) , then we witnessed the actual technical capitulation in its new contemporary disguise...a mere $2.70 drop on moderate volume. In any case, I expect to see a dramatic shift in modus operandi from gold producers from this point on. I expect they will finally "change the perception" in the market through tangible, substantive actions. From this point on, I believe we will see virtually the complete cessation of large sell forwards and the winding down of current existing gold loans on their books. Moreover, I expect CB's who wish to preserve the principal value of their gold assets ( as opposed to the loan- out value ) will effectively terminate any significant sales or loans of gold from this point on.

If you are shorting gold today, then I believe you are a either completely insane and/or have incredible balls of steel. Nothing less.

Along with today's capitulation in the gold market, I believe we simultaneouly witnessed three more auspicious phenonomena: early morning collapse of the American dollar, bond market, and equities market...the three essential components that must occur simultaneously to motivate investors to move from the purported"safe haven" of American bonds to the
genuine safe haven of precious metals. I believe the only reason the bond market rallied back in the afternoon ( thereby killing any chance for gold to remain above $280 ) is because American investors ( more so than foreign investors ) are complacent in their belief that American bonds are a safety haven. This complacency is fostered by the media, the investment community, and simple ignorance about economics.

Yet, the increasing tendency of equities, bonds, and the dollar to move in the same direction is a harbinger of what is to come. Eventually, as
foreigners begin to repatriate capital to shore up their beleaguered domestic situations, and as interest rates rise to try and stem the capital outflow and maintain the lofty level of the Almighty American dollar, then the bond market will likely collapse, thereby inspiring Americans to buy precious metals as the final and pandemic safety haven.

I have called for such a stagflationary scenario to occur in this country since the early '90's. That it never occurred back then is owing to America's amazing powers of persuasion in convincing normally inflation- phobic Germany and Japan into dropping their interest rates at the same time America dropped its own, thereby generating the interest rate global recovery of this decade.

Finally, the complete reversal of equities' Oct. '97 comeback is leaving short- term equity speculators with a sick, panicky feeling. Certainly, the buy and hold group are mildly nervous...but still relatively complacent. After all, they've still made on average at least 100% on their Dow stocks since '95. However, the short- term paper speculators are going bananas. After all, the January Effect is supposed to be as natural as the Sun rising in the East. What happened?

It's called "the New Paradigm"....get used to it!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:49 - ID#364147)
Studio.R........and thoughts of LITIGATION + BIG BUCKS
Studio.R: Misery loves company ( so you've been 'had' too ) - - - Where's Tort + WW when ya need em- - - I'd sue EB for all he's got....right here!!- - - right NOW!!...Cyber- justice- - - issued witha stern hand~~~~~~

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:49 - ID#288295)
Rebecca Nolan Financial Astrologer

To those of you who follow financial astrology, but don't have a copy of R. Nolan's gold trend forecast:

current trend bottoms 1/13
up trend starts 1/14, peaks 1/16

shallow down trend starts 1/19 to bottom at 1/28

steady up trend starts 1/30
with continuous rise to peak at 2/16

flat to slightly down trend starts 2/17 to bottom at 2/20

up trend resumes 2/23 to maximum peak at 3/5

trend flat but irregular from peak to 3/30

Sorry; no $/oz here, just direction, but at least the direction is in our favor !!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:50 - ID#28585)
VRONSKY...I am happy to contact you if you provide me your E- Mail address. My computer showed an error when I tried to call it up.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:52 - ID#329157)
Organ: job interview games
Ha Ha! the old job interview game. I once went for an interview at a division of British Aerospace- more out of curiosity than anything else, since I'd decided it wasn't an interesting job already. There was a guy from Motorola there who remarked before the interview that he was just sussing them out. The "Handbook of Industrial Espionage" mentions this little trick. I often wonder how many people were really applying for that job.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:56 - ID#23782)
At 15:47 dej tells us he is out 100k on platinum.
At 15:47 you post the platinum stuff. Along with
ted and his brownies, etc.
I thought you were taking a shot at him. And that
surprised me. But because of the times of the posts,
I realized later that I was wrong.
Actually, I respect you as a sporting gentleman and
savvy trader. Congradulations on your wink!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:56 - ID#329157)
Ponder this. Does the PPT care about $280? And have they run out of ammo yet?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 16:57 - ID#26793)
From the "World in Depression" ( Charles Kindleberger )

On September 3, 1933, Roosevelt changed the price of gold from $20.67 to $29.82. Then on February 1, 1934, the price was changed from $29.82 to $35.00.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:07 - ID#26793)
It is a criminal offense to criticize Suharto of Indonesia; but she did it anyway.

Lurker 777
(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:09 - ID#317247)
I am sure there are countless numbers of Lurkers ( like myself ) out there wanting to get involved in buying gold but are concerned about the horrific bear market we have witnessed over the last 24 months. The most pressing question is wheres the bottom? I have predicted $280 and was proven wrong and others on this site obviously see a much lower bottom than I am willing to admit possible. Because no one can guarantee me how low can we go I like to cover my bets. Because of the absence of detailed investment opinions with limited risk on the purchase of Bullion coins I offer you following information at your own risk.

IMVHO - If you have at least $35,000. to invest in gold bullion.

Buy 100 999.9% pure 1 oz. gold coins and a put option ( 100 oz. ) to cover your ASSets. The put option will pay you $100. for every $1. gold goes below the strike price plus any built in premium.

1 ) You will need to open a account with a discount futures broker for $5,000. This can be done over your fax and the money can be wired from your bank in one day. Then you will need to send them the original forms overnight ( They Pay ) .

2 ) You will need to purchase coins from a reputable dealer because they will hold your funds for up to three weeks before sending your coins to you.

If you send wire transfer or certified check you will fall under reporting laws of $10,000. and the government will be notified of the transaction.

I personally like the Austrian Philharmoiker one oz. 999.9% pure gold bullion coins. The coins have the highest monetary face value of any gold coin ( 2000 Shilling or $160.00 U.S. ) and are the biggest seller in Europe. I also like the Dec. 99 270 Put option for around $600. because I have until the second week of November 1999 to exercise my option. Here is my last trade for an example: ( Gold was at $283.00 )

Bought 100 Philharmonker one oz. coins at $29,725. or $297.25 ea.

Bought 1 Dec 99 270 put option ( 100 oz. ) $ 650. or $ 6.50 ea.

Average cost per coin with put option is $303.75

My downside risk is the difference between $303.75 and $270.00 ( put ) or $33.75. Also, the coins will carry a $5.00 premium over spot when you go to sell so subtract $5.00 from $33.75 and you get $28.75 total downside risk or 9.5% .

As a bonus if gold would completely collapse you should be able to get 2000 Shillings per coin from the Austrain Mint.

The momentum is differently down for the price of gold but I do not want to be caught without any coins when the market turns. I might not be buying at the bottom but below $300 an oz. seems pretty darn cheap to me. When this bear market does reverse, Gold could become very violent to the upside as we have seen in the price of Platinum and Silver. My credentials as a market timer or investor are unimpressive but I think ( feel ) that gold is very close to a bottom and the risks of not owning gold far outweigh the risk of waiting for the bottom.

Note: I would like to see a broker or bullion dealer come out with a Put option for 10 oz. for the smaller investor.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:15 - ID#238422)
@John Disney
John, some people that you mentioned
should have medical exams performed on them
are probably not complete idiots in medical
sense. They are from the other camp.

After living 33 years in the U.S.S.R., I got
so sick and tired of political and economic
bull sh*t over there, that I just cannot handle
it any more in a gentleman's way.

I am getting mad when I smell it again, particularly in
such great country as the U.S.A, where I live now.

"Karlito 99" brand name is the most bright sample of
this bull sh*t I've seen so far. I can now understand
Tolerant wanting to eat his liver in public.
I want to eat Karlito's tongue. When properly cooked,
tongue is a very delicious stuff. But I'm afraid Karlito's
tongue will still stink even after being cooked for 3 hours,
as recommended in cookbook, so I would drink a lot of vodka
to kill the taste.

By the way, where in the hell this "99"?

I wish to talk to it.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:16 - ID#28585)
@CJS1...Please elaborate
Forgive my ignorance...but PPT? What do the initials stand for?

Spud Master
(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:18 - ID#273112)
@Dave In Colorado
thanks too for your posting of "Once I built a rail- road" - sorry I missed it in my irrational exuberance.

Off to have tea & crumpets with Saddam Hussien, and discuss plans for brutally taking EB's wink back by force.

GO DOW!!!! DOW 98 in 98!

Clinton declares martial law.

Texas unleashes nanotech warfare, defeats the Feds and restores the US Constitution as the law of the land!

Dollar is defined as gold again.

Federal Reserve war crimes Tribunal held in Hallsville, Texas.

Greenspan and Rubin plead innocence by reason of paper insanity.

EB, LGB and Karlito are arrested as they try to enter Mexico on false papers, disguised as men.

Plank space determined to be occupied by squatters. Einstein Police called to evict them.

C++ outlawed as a computer language; Ada restored to its rightful place as foundation of the Post- Year 2000 Collapse.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:19 - ID#356379)

Thanks, Karlito and EB for keeping the rest of us goldbugs from being completely bull- headed!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:21 - ID#26793)
Bond market punishing banks over exposed to Asian debt problems

Spud Master
(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:23 - ID#273112)
Encore! encore!
Oris! Bravo! I was quivering in apoplectic fits of mirth reading your post!

Please, tell us more about the "Cooking with Karlito" cook book!! Perhaps Jaque Pipin and Justin Wilson can contribute? "Blacken Karlito"? "Karlito ala Mode"? "Karlito with spam, baked beans, spam, spam, egg and spam"?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:23 - ID#286250)
Donald, I'd like to ask a favor, please
Would you please try to access this site?
You'll have to cut, leave KITCO, paste to the url
line of your 'homeport' browser.
Would you post your results please?
Many thanks.

Geneva International Forum intl/gi/egi/egi194.htm

(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:24 - ID#249409)
Lurker--gold coin w/built in option
RE: Lurker's post about buying gold
coins plus put options...
First, I like your idea - the puts are
a nice insurance - I will look into doing
the same.
However, there may be another way to do
I was at my gold dealer the other day
and saw the "Mountie" gold coin.
I didn't check the details, but it
seemed that it is a 1 oz ( extra pure )
gold coin with a built in put option.
You buy the coin now at $350 US, with
a guarantee from the Govt. of Canada
that they will buy the coin back from
you for $300 US between now and 1999,
no matter how low gold goes
( I think these are the details -
those in the know please
correct me if I am wrong ) .

Anyway, this may be a way for the small
investor to play the same game - buy
gold and get an automatic put option
without extra broker accounts, etc.

I'd appreciate any comments regarding
the 2 strategies:
1. gold coins plus put options
2. the "Mountie" with built- in put option

Thanks in advance...

(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:28 - ID#26793)
This is what I got.

404 Not Found

The requested URL /geneva- was not found on this server.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:32 - ID#200174) intl/gi/egi/egi226.htm intl/gi/egi/egi194.htm

Apparently a space got in there between genenva_ int. Try the ones above.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:33 - ID#200174)

it seems to paste in the space. manually take out the space and the url should work.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:36 - ID#200174) intl/gi/egi/egi194.htm ( pasted ) intl/gi/egi/egi194.htm ( manual )

Just checking to see if a- i anc be done manually.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:41 - ID#26793)
World Economic Forum ( WEF )

Mr. Klaus Schwab
Chemin des Hauts- Crts 53, CH- 1223 Cologny
+41- 22- 869 12 12
+41- 22- 786 27 44
E- mail:

Activity summary
The World Economic Forum ( WEF ) is today the foremost international membership organization
integrating leaders from business, government and academia, who are committed to improving
the state of the world. It is an independent, impartial and not- for- profit foundation which is
financed through annual membership fees and cost contributions from the leading 1000
companies in the world. It was recently awarded a non- governmental organization status.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:41 - ID#238422)
Thanks, friend.

Will continue upon your request a little bit latter.
Must go now.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Karlito - where are you? Get here, talk to me...

(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:42 - ID#238422)
Sorry, correction: latter= later.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:44 - ID#427357)
CALLING farfel

(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:46 - ID#26793)
I can get in if I copy the url to a word processor. Then I back out the extra space that A. Goose noted, then copy/paste the URL to home.

Barb Hughes
(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:48 - ID#20783)
@Lurker 777
Your theory is great!
Only flaws I can see:
1 ) Banking on the $5 premium over spot.
2 ) Assuming if gold collapses the exchange
rate will not have changed.
3 ) Question..What happens if DEC 99 rolls
arround and lets say gold is 215oz...
Where do you stand?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:50 - ID#93232)
@Spud Meister...Sorry it took so long....
But I wanted to find the prelude which very few people have heard, it is not included in "modern versions" like Sinatra, etc.

Dedicated to the Dow Crash Of 1998 by Spud & Studio:

"Anything Goes" Written by Cole Porter, copyright 1934
First performed by Ethel Merman in the musical "Anything Goes"

( Prelude )
Times have changed...
And we've often rewound the clock
Since the Puritans got a shock
When they landed on Plymouth Rock

If today....
Any shoppie ( ? ) should try to stem
'Stead of landing on Plymouth Rock
Plymouth Rock would land on them....
( v )
In olden days, a glimpse of stocking
Was looked on as something shocking
Now heaven knows...
Anything goes

Good authors too
Who once knew better words
Now only use four letter words
Writing prose...
Anything goes

( ch )
The world's gone mad today
And good's bad today
And black's white today
And day's night today
When most guys today
That women prize today
Are just silly gigolos
( v )
So, though I'm not
A great romancer
I know that I'm
Bound to answer
When you propose...
Anything goes

( Break )

( Repeat chorus )


(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:51 - ID#200174)
Date: Sat Jan 10 1998 17:46
Donald__A ( @SDRer ) ID#26793:

You can just paste it ( in the url location ) as is and manually take out the space. Good luck.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:52 - ID#26793)
More text from Geneva site
World Economic Forum

The World Economic Forum is a foundation serving the global public interest. It is independent,
impartial and not- for- profit, tied to no political, partisan or regional interests. It is self- financed
through annual membership fees and cost contributions from participants in specific events.

Institutionally, the WEF is a foundation registered in Geneva, Switzerland. It is under the legal
supervision of the Swiss federal authorities and has the status of a non- governmental organization
granted by the United Nations.

The Foundation Members of the WEF are some 1000 companies in over 70 countries which are
usually represented in our activities at the chief executive level. The typical member company is a
global enterprise with more than one billion dollars turnover. Thus the combined turnover of the
members has been calculated to be well over three trillion dollars.

The WEF has created a special membership category for Global Growth Companies ( GGCs ) . The
world's industrial activities are increasingly determined not only by the traditional multinational
companies but also by smaller entrepreneurial enterprises that very often act as niche players on a
global scale.

The WEF has established special groups of Industry Governors, composed of the chief executives
of the most important companies in key industrial sectors. These include :

engineering and construction
financial services
food and agro
information technologies
media, communication and entertainment
transportation services.

Contrary to membership, which is company related, the constituent of the World Economic Forum
are individuals with a personal relationship and commitment to he foundation in their specific fields.
Constituent groups are subject to strict conditions of admission, drawn up to preserve their peer
and group character. Among them are the Group of Public Figures, Global Leaders for Tomorrow
( some 400 men and women under the age of 43 who will shape the future ) , Forum Fellows ( over
400 academics and experts from political, economic, scientific, social and cultural fields ) and
Media Leaders ( editors- in- chief and commentators from the most influential media groups ) .

In addition, the WEF conducts regional economic summits in key regions of the world. It has also
organized to date over 500 country meetings, making the foundation the leading interface for global
business/government interaction.

The WEF is also involved in the creation of specialized industry networks, helping to determine
specific global strategies in the key industrial sectors. In this respect, the WEF has organized
Industry Summits in close cooperation with well known centres of academic excellence, such as
Harvard University, MIT and Stanford University.

The WEF pursues its own research activities, particularly in the field of global competitiveness, the
World Competitiveness Report.

The WEF also has publishing activities, particularly through its bi- monthly magazine, World Link,
which is distributed to 40.000 global decision- makers.

The WEF is also involved in all types of networking activities, helping its members to establish
global partnerships and strategic alliances.

The WEF has been at the origin of a number of global initiatives, such as the Uruguay Round,
NAFTA and the forthcoming European/East Asian Government Summit. It has also played a
prominent role in the peace process in South Africa and in the Middle East.

World Economic Forum

a foundation working to improve the state of the world
the global partnership of business, government, academia and media
continuous personal interaction at the highest level
added value through analysis, reflection and action- oriented initiatives
an international membership organization with NGO status.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:58 - ID#105111)
to Donald_A
Thanks for the URL reference. It was a nice read. - - SlingShot

(Sat Jan 10 1998 17:59 - ID#26793)
The WEF seems like a bunch of natural devaluers. They would seem to represent the military- industrial complex that Eisenhower worried about. They have essentially captured all governments via campaign contributions. These types are opposed to individual freedom ( except their own ) .

(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:03 - ID#189195)
Re: Contact
Spudmaster: I am impressed! I didn't know your background. I have read Sagan's "Small Blue planet" but not "Contact". I am not surprised that the movie might have little to do with the book, as Carl Sagan was not able to critque the making of the movie, since it was done after he died.

I can understand that you might not have liked the "romance" bit with Jodie Foster, but this was only a tiny part of the movie, compared to typical Hollywood productions. Since you have said so much about the movie, I'll spill some of the beans, too!

I liked the movie because it was not as "empty" as 2001 and 2010. Both of these movies were almost entirely devoid of any acting and were mostly high- tech. ( apologies to HAL 9000 - - you were the highlight of the two movies ) . I'm tired of seeing this kind of movie. I wonder, do you think ET was no good either?

Overlooking the romance part, there are several impressive features:

1 ) the alien first contact digital message was embedded in a Hitler telecast beamed from VEGA - - so they already had told us that they knew our seamier side. The military types were not overstereotyped.

2 ) The device that was to launch our heroine to VEGA "malfunctioned", so that only the Heroine knew the experience was real.

3 ) The wormholes in space the our heroine passed through ended at a place that was identical to a florida beach, and she was met by her long dead father. He very matter of factly explained to her that this was the best way they thought they could communicate with her, and explained all they were going explain. Namely that the wormhole device was built by an intelligence superior to their own, and this brief 18 hour encounter was all she was going to get - - and that all civilizations over millions of years were indroduced in the same way. Also that it would be millions of years for the completion of the process. This is unlike 2001 where the interaction of the hero with the alien intelligence is impossibly convoluted - - to this day I do not understand what was intended - - and I have seen that movie three times. Even 2010 did not explain all of the mystery, though it was better. And - - in 2010, I didn't have a clue why the aliens had any real interest in us, and what they had done except reveal that they existed by using the Von Neumann machines to make Jupiter into a star.

I especially liked the ending in "Contact", because the heroine returned at the instant she left the earth, so there was no proof the launching device constructed from alien plans actually worked. You see - this part is especially important - - how does one have alien contact with the "average" human, without any particular government winding up with all the technology, and trying to hoard it? And there are the individuals who for whatever reason do not want to believe! Somehow they must be given a back door to exit.

Bart - - I apologize in advance for hogging the airways on this - - I am hoping that all of what we do on Kitco will help the world economy get back on its feet so that we can go to the stars. All we need is the financial resources and a stable world economy.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:08 - ID#189195)
Rebecca Nolan gold predictions
Silverbaron: Thanks for posting Rebecca Nolan's predictions. By the way, how accurate has she been since you began subscribing to the newsletter?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:15 - ID#335196)
Bob Brinker

Some of Bob Brinker's comments from today's show. With an hour still to go:

...sensational stock market rally by the end of January.

...the market will go through the roof.

...the bad news bears will be crying. downside potential: Not much. has already discounted the Asian problem.

...the nervous nellies are already out of the market, drinking milk.

...last week was a short term pullback. is an outright buy in the 7400's. will be 8300- 8500 MINIMUM by summer.

His voice reached an almost hysterical pitch in voicing these thoughts.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:28 - ID#427357)


The 1929- like crash in Asia is causing misery on a biblical scale, threatening the solvency of banks, stockbrokers, margin calls undermining investors, while the crackpots running the central banks raise taxes and interest rates, wreaking havoc on the middle class and poor.

If all nations printed paper money at different rates, how could there possibly be stability?

Over the millennia, gold has been the traditional receptacle for Mass Fear, along with silver and perhaps platinum. On a "spike" there is no telling how high gold might go when so many try to buy at the same time, like a herd of elephants trying to get through a revolving door at the same time. FULL REPORT at:

Barb Hughes
(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:29 - ID#20783)
Buy back arround 310- 313

AND that's also assuming the CAN GOV'T
does not renig as they have in the past
on some of their $20 face value 1oz pure
silver olympic commemoratives OR some of
their $100 face value 1/2oz gold coins
AND their $200 face value 1/2 gold may
certainly be at risk of redemption soon.

My gut feeling for the small investor ...
investing in Gold is:
Buy it!
Bury it!
Forget it!
It's just an insurance policy. It's like
any other insurance policy till you need it!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:29 - ID#288295)
Mainstream media for GOLD?

See interesting article entitled "Dead- cat bounce"

do quick search for gold - article is 1/12/98 under commodities.

Dave in CO
(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:33 - ID#215211)
I think that guy has good reason to be very concerned if not hysterical. The same goes for the parrots on CNBC. There will be millions of very angry investors if anything approaching S.E. Asia spills over to here. A plane ticket, a passport, and a plastic surgeon are probably in his plans.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:33 - ID#93232)
@TED...Re: Disparagement suit pending.....Ted,Studio,et al vs. EB
I just got off the phone with my atty., proposed a contingency @35% , we pay filing fees, discovery and expert witness costs, standard deal...he raised a good question..."What's this guy got ? Deep Pockets?...I told him all he's got is gold. We ain't got no atty now, pard. I Guess I'm out....sorry, what you have to do. Studio.R

Lurker 777
(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:34 - ID#317247)
jtaher and Barb
Barb Hughes

Your theory is great!

Only flaws I can see:

1 ) Banking on the $5 premium over spot.

* I have been monitoring AJPM gold prices and they historically have offered over $5.00 per oz. I would think the cost to bullion dealers from mints and other sources would insure at least that much.

2 ) Assuming if gold collapses the exchange

rate will not have changed.

* Going back four years 2000 Shillings has been worth between $150 and $210 U.S. but I do not have longer term historical exchange information. Good Question!

3 ) Question..What happens if DEC 99 rolls

around and lets say gold is 215oz...

Where do you stand?

* I would sell the put for $5,500.00 and purchase a Dec. 2001 200 put.


I do not know anything about the "Mountie" but it looks like it give the small investor a chance to buy gold coins with limited downside risk ( 14% ) . Hmmmm

(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:35 - ID#30116)
Stock market...
Lurker 777 - - A tip of the hat to you! A thought out plan for the ownership/speculation in gold. You take on risk, but attempt to minimize it.

As for the Dow... Calls for its' sudden demise are somewhat early. A rough patch ahead, no doubt. A crash and burn though? Not yet. This market has only begun to get the 'virgin' money in! The virgins will be baptised hence forth. A test of fire if you will. Then they shall be rewarded with a profitable rise, only to awaken one morning realizing that;

1 ) They have gotten no respect.

2 ) The check is not in the mail, in fact, it was never mailed.

3 ) They should immediately visit their dentist... ( That's as far as I'll go with that. )

(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:36 - ID#287277)
Donald, many thanks--your usual sterling (gold) job!
As you now have the site, check the financial sector...
Check the monitoring 'activity'
Check UBO
Check the list of banks

It just gets 'better and better'

Thanks again!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:37 - ID#288295)
JTF RE: Rebecca Nolan Financial Astrologer

JTF: Actually I not ( yet ) a subscriber, or believer. Got this by fax from someone else on this forum a couple days ago. Her stuff is expensive, so I'll use this to see if there is any worth to it. I understand, however, that she called the Oct 27 drop in the US market many months in advance, so we'll see. If in US or Canada, I can fax copy to you on Monday.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:38 - ID#432221)

(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:40 - ID#420253)
increasing demand...
A jeweler from Austria wants to gild the sunset. He wants with the project "Golden peaks Worldwide" put the peak of the Grossglockners on in the alps with gold foil: only 400,000 DM. I believe one must always hide for gold. One is either killed or laughed for the possession.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:41 - ID#26793)
The Dines URL has the same problem as the one SDRer delivered. There is a space after the dash that blocks access.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:45 - ID#189195)
betting on a gold bear still the right thing to do, but with most assets parked
farfel: Just saw one of your posts about being bullish on gold. I am tired of losing money in gold - - lost quite a bit listening to the gold bulls. Most of what I have been doing is buying on dips, and selling on peaks, as we are still in a gold bear. If the US market tanks next week you will regret your bullish words - - because the "powers that be" whoever they are, will knock your investments down at lest one more time before the gold bull begins. I have made more money on XAU puts than on spx puts.

There is one item you have left out of your consistently uplifting posts - - and that is the tenacity of the crowd that wants the US dollar to be strong, and gold weak. This process, for whatever reason, has gone beyond rationality and has approached insanity! SE Asia is in the shambles that it is, partially because of the craziness shown in pushing up the US dollar, and gold down. If the world's currencies were linked to a gold standard now, and not the dollar, we might not be in the sorry state that we are now in!

I am as devoted a gold bug as you - - but I refuse to watch my hard earned savings vanish. I am going to wait with the lions share of my assets either for an unmistakable gold rally - - not a limp response to a strong silver rally, or for a major us market correction. The PPT will have to give up soon, and let the chips fall as they may.

So - - as I said just before the gold stocks plummeted on friday - - keep your powder dry, and wait till after the stock market correction - - because the downdraft of the markets will pull gold down too! If you want something bulletproof and can't wait, buy those St. Gaudens or Liberty pre- 1933 coins! They at least can't vanish in a puff of smoke!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:47 - ID#341214)
APH: Thanks very much for the clarification post. First, let me say I hope your interpretation of wave I is spot on due to the shorter time frame than mine. Second, my analysis agrees with yours until we get into
wave 3. Third, I agree wholeheartedly that this is wave I and just the
beginning of silver's awesome rise in the coming years.
Fundamental reasons got me into silver and hopefully TA will keep
me going.

Now to details. I'd like to focus on wave 3 which started in late Oct.
I'm picking these numbers off of a chart so they are not exact.
wave 1 of 3 from about 4.70 to about 5.60 ( .90 )
wave 2 of 3 from about 5.60 to about 5.20 ( .40, flat correction,
right? )
Here's where we begin to differ.
wave 3 of 3 from about 5.20 to 639.5 ( 1.20 )
You feel that 4 and 5 of 3 also occured between 5.20 and 639.5 but I
don't see a significant enough wave 4. So I feel that we are in that
wave 4 of 3 now. Since the wave we are in now is a sharp
correction I figured c would bottom about 5.65. ( 6.395 minus .618 of
wave 3 of 3 ) or 639.5 minus .74 ) . This is close to your if a = c then
559.5. I think it may also be noteworthy that wave 2 of 3 was a flat
correction. This usually means wave 4 will be a sharp and we are in
a sharp right now.

Since I think we finished 3 of 3 at 6.395 and are finishing 4 of 3 now
around 5.615 the next leg up is 5 of 3. I added the size of 1 of 3
( .90 ) to the bottom of wave 4 ( 5.615 ) to come up with 6.51 as the top
of 5 of 3. That figure will probably fit within the parallel lines you
mentioned by the time we get there. Then it's down again for wave
4 of I and up for a final top in wave 5 of I. I'm hoping the correction
we are in now will fill the gap that is close to closing and that wave 5,
whether we get into it now or a bit later will be a hum dinger!

Did you ever read the Foundation series by Issac Asimov? Do you
remember Hari Seldon? It's been years since I did but when I read
about E- wave analysis I thought back to Hari Seldon.

We can revisit this when the result is known. Like I said, I hope your
call is the right one. Cheers and good trading to you.


(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:48 - ID#432221)
wealth or ruin?

How prudent would it be to buy physical gold with credit cards? I'm withdrawing as much 401K as I can for coin purchase and shifting remaining balance to most conservitive options{which include au holdings ) . I feel the need to scramble for as much gold as I possibly can.Am I acting wisely or setting myself up for years of recovery?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:53 - ID#28585)
JTF...I understand completely your rationale. In your very capitulation, however, I see hope that my analysis is, in fact, correct.

I do not believe you are in a minority, JTF. I would suggest you are definitely a member of the majority at this point.

Total capitulation is the first step to rebirth.

Barb Hughes
(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:55 - ID#20783)
@bullion coins @#$%...
In the past 18 mos their were times that K- Rands
were available at arround 99% of spot & were being
melted along with AUST 100 C's, AUST 4 D's, MEX 50's
etc..... Only things that held premiums were
Eagles & Mapes. ***Bullion coins fall in & out of
FAVOR! What's hot today may not be hot tamale!

Early Riser
(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:59 - ID#228275)
No.thanks, Camdessus

Spud Master
(Sat Jan 10 1998 18:59 - ID#273112)
@JTF - we must agree to disagree...
I can see your points concerning "Contact" the movie, not the sinus relief agent.

"2001" and "ET" were superbly crafted movies, and above all, satisfied the #1 criteria of any movie: It should entertain.

A movie should NOT act as a vehicle for disimentation political status- quo doctrine. "Contact" fails miserably here, as does the abominable "Independance Day". Such films, in earlier times were correctly called "propaganda" - any entertainment is consequential and supports to goal of getting the audience, unwittingly to ascribe the movie's toxic beliefs to themselves. You may feel that the Iranians are harsh, sexist fanatics - but they understand what would happen to their culture should Western "anything goes" beliefs corrupt them.

Hollywood, always eager to be the whore for liberal politics, has seized upon the genre of Science Fiction as a mechanism for slipping their noxious notions of Statism ( or "government worship" as I call it ) into the minds of our credulous youth. A virus, in much the same manner, presents a seductive & sexy message to the surface proteins of a cell, which, having welcomed it "in", is then injected with the bad ideology ( RNA or DNA for a virus, bad ideas for a political ideology ) .

I present as a case in point the Roddenbury "Star Trek" genre. One may observe the transition away from science- ficiton in the original ST, and early episodes of "The Next Generation", to a fixation upon political correctness and new- world- order indoctrination ( "mediators" ) in the abhorrent "Deep Space 9" and "Voyager" series ( I can not fault them though, for the choice of the borgette ; )

I am an information technologist: to me, the world is an informational ecosystem. Information, credos, beliefs, ideas are the meat- space world equivalent of bacteria, molds, virii, etc. Some ideas are good, some are bad - there are ideas like unto an oil spill, lead contamination, spoiled food, cholera, and AIDS. Our minds effect a kind of informational "mental immune system" that protects us from bad ideas, to a greater or lesser extent ( i.e. "don't stick your tongue in electrical sockets" ) . Call it censorship. Most classical religions act as complete operating systems, engendering the believer with the brand's mental immune system. It is the *primary* goal of all governments ( synthetic religions ) to subvert and replace the "native" mental immune system of its population in order to effect complete control.

After all, if I believe in an all powerful God, who has given me rules etc. by which to live, I can hardly be swayed by idiot politcal clap- trap. Like "turn in your gold to say the country".

This ties in directly to the movies we have been discussing ( and telvision as well ) . Movies USED to be more or less for pure entertainment, although there were always varying degrees of propaganda in them.

Today, almost ALL movies are mere vehicles for selling merchandise ( "Anastasia", "Hercules" ) to children ( how calculatingly cruel ) or for the purpose of leading us all to the living hell of a one- world police state where a handful of elite god- lets oversee the dumbed- down masses of cattle. Karlito & LGB I place amoung those monsters.

I recommend "Engines of Creation" by K. Eric Drexler, the father of nanotechnology, for a brilliant and lucid discussion of the mental immune system, as well as a stunning overview of what nanotechnology portends for mankind.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:02 - ID#329157)
farfel; PPT srv/business/daily/feb/26/plunge.htm

"Back in the 1930s when banks were keeling over at a rate of knots, you might have decided that the sensible thing to do would be to buy gold and stuff it in your mattress. But that powerful elite anticipated this, and because your holding gold would have interfered with _their_ plans, they just said you couldn't. To make certain, they passed a law to that effect. Was _this_ fair?
- Robert Beckman, Into the Upwave, 1988, ISBN 1 85265 110 5

(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:04 - ID#329157)
farfel- PPT
and watch out for that space in the URL after the -

(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:11 - ID#288295)
grant (et al) bullion purchases

I wouldn't want to discourage gold bullion purchases for anyone who believes in it, although I think the history of confiscation in the US makes $20 Libs and St. Gaudens a little safer in some respect.

Are you aware that Central Fund of Canada, a bullion- only fund, is now trading at 12- 13% discount to spot value? I believe symbol is CEF.

Barb Hughes
(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:13 - ID#20783)
Goodevening& mondayshouldbeinterrestingtosaytheleast!

Emerald Heights
(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:20 - ID#227311)
LGB2: Since I consider your opinion of value I would like your take
on a problem now at hand. I am now controlling approximately 400K of blue chips. I try my best not to be biased by the doom and gloomers but with the global problems and Fridays Dow hit, I find myself a little concerned. Yes, I have been buying some gold & silver ( 100oz or so ) but consider that just speculative. Problem is capital gains. When I play craps I can cut my losses at 5- 6 hundred and have a good time, but here the stakes are heavy. I have no expertise in stocks and that is a problem. Any thoughts? Regards:EH

Lurker 777
(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:23 - ID#317247)
Who wants popcorn?
Can anyone tell me what time B.T. - Another show starts?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:24 - ID#26793)
@SDRer: Bill Gates, Andy Grove & Newt Gingrich in the same room, in private

(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:26 - ID#26793)
@Barb Hughes
The CEF discount narrowed this week to 7%

(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:29 - ID#341293)
Does anyone find ...
Does anyone else find it unusual that whenever LGB goes away, the Dow seems to fall? That's twice now that he's said he's going somewhere and then it dropped like a stone. Perhaps he's on the committee to save the U.S. financial system. Wouldn't it be great if we could use him as a contrary indicator! Maybe we should forget about free speach and vote to keep him away forever so the DOW woun't have a chance of recovery. Just kidding of course ( at least if he gets back and sees this message ) ( :- )


(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:32 - ID#267276)
Your 18:48 post. If you own little except some credit card money, go ahead and use it if you feel that strong. However if you have a house and other holdings that you and your family need, then you should only speculate with what you can afford to lose. Gold coins should not have too much downside risk. Its all relative !

(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:33 - ID#288295)
@Donald_A re: CEF

Thanks for the update on CEF 7% discount; my info was a week or so old.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:35 - ID#432221)
Thankyou SB for your thoghts,

Siverbaron, would you please detail "Central Fund of Canada", I've never heard of it. How do I avail?, Why can they deal at 12- 13% discount?
Your comment on the history of confiscation is interesting and alarming. Why $20 peices? Is the smaller the piece the better simply because "the sellers" change would have no value?
Again, thankyou for your time educating a "NEWBIE"

(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:37 - ID#341293)
Sholomo a woman ?
Does anyone else remember a guy named Sholomo ? He was the one who posted the rather large expertice a while back about forward viewing under the name of Nancy. He posted the other day and said he was a "stay at home housewife" . If it's the same guy, he's just fooling around yet again. An Israeli airforce pilot into forward viewing who is now a housewife? Who knows for sure but be forewarned, it's happened here before....


Dave in CO
(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:39 - ID#215211)
@Spud Master
Oh no, not another programmer. Seems an abnormal number of us are here compared to the population. Any theories as to why that is?

Did you say ADA will save the post- Millenieum world? By 2000, there will be so many COBOL ( and PL1 ) programmers, we will be able to vote in our own president. Maybe Yourdan?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:40 - ID#26793)
Tietmeyer worries Europe not prepared for low priced Asian competition

(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:44 - ID#26793)
@Grant: Central Fund of Canada info CS.ohtml

(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:46 - ID#288295)
grant re: CEF, $20 gold

CEF is a closed- end bullion only fund which trades like a stock, and can be bought through any broker. I believe it trades on the Amex.

Many thought of differing opinions on coins. I prefer the $20 pre- 1933 coins because they contain almost an ounce of gold, and the premium over spot ( while high by bullion standards ) is the lowest in many years, and collector coins were excluded in the 30's confiscation order. Not too much downside, I think. If interested in further info on coins, contact me @ address listed in 18:37 post

(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:47 - ID#267276)
Pre 1934 Libs and St.Gaudens were legally excluded from the law ( dealing with the enemy ) I think ? That Roosevelt used to conficate gold.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:48 - ID#26793)
That space after the dash is preventing the URL for posting. Here is some text.

Central Fund of Canada

Hallmark Estates, Suite 805
1323 15th Avenue S.W.
Alberta T3C 0X8, Canada
( 403 ) 228- 5861
Misc. Financial Services

Complete Financials: Apr 1997
Earnings Announcement: Jul 1997
Business Summary
Central Fund of Canada operates as a specialized investment holding company, investing in gold
and silver bullion. For the 9 months ended 7/31/97, loss before operating expenses totalled
$420K, up from $63K. Net loss according to U.S. GAAP totalled $10.7M, up from $2M. Loss
reflects increased realized losses on sale of bullion certificates. Net loss reflects increased
unrealized depreciation of investments.
*Earnings Announcement: For the quarter ended JUL 1997, revenues were 8; after tax
earnings were - 182. ( Thousands )

( As of 01/02/98 )
Price $

52 Week High $

52 Week Low $

3 Month Avg Daily Vol ( Mil )


Market Cap ( Mil ) $

Shares Outstanding ( Mil )

Float ( Mil )

Indicated Annual Dividend $

Dividend Yield %




- 0.14





EPS ( TTM ) $

P/E Ratio ( TTM )

Book Value ( MRQ ) $

Price/Book ( MRQ )

Sales Per Share ( TTM ) $

Return on Assets ( TTM ) %

Return on Equity ( TTM ) %

Cash Per Share ( MRQ ) $

Current Ratio ( MRQ )

Total Debt/Equity ( MRQ )
- 0.80*





- 1.67*

- 14.63*




Mil = Millions
MRQ = Most Recent Quarter
TTM = Trailing Twelve Months

Additional Research Available for Central Fund of Canada

[Home] [Research] [What's Hot] [NetScreen] [StockQuest] [Sector] [Industry] [Subscribe]

(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:49 - ID#432221)
mOST IS PAID FOR, Thanks for your response.This is literally the first time in my life "THE MARKET" has caught my attention enough to act.
I'm gonna bet alot on the the wisdom I've gained reading your and others post's on this site in the last few months. I can't see how you could possibly err enough to be wrong.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:50 - ID#267276)
Check out

(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:54 - ID#215379)
interest in gold increasing
Has everyone else noticed the increase in the interest in buying sold gold or gold stocks, or is it just me ??

Spud Master
(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:54 - ID#273112)
more like a "Texas" board here... just how many of us are in Texas??
Dave in Colorado - C++ is an excrable, degenerate, low- life, POS software language with a joke of a syntax. If we think that the "Year 2000" problem is bad, wait until the "Code Maintenance C/C++ Bug" hits.

C/C++ code designers seem to have the worst sense of code design and maintence skills I have yet seen. It's a nightmare. Want to scare the hell out of someone? Take the "professional" C/C++ program they paid for, sit them down at a machine and run LINT on their classy C/C++ code. "LINT? What's that?". You'll see that their code is hanging on by a thread, waiting for disaster. Ever wonder where those mysterious glitches and GFE's come from? Ever wonder why Netscape crashes all day long?

The dominance of Microsoft is only slightly less hideous than the dominance of this half- assed excuse for a language. It truly is "write- only code".

Ada, along with Pascal, Modula and PL/1, was designed for simplitcy, maintainability and SAFETY. That Boeing aircraft you trust your life in is running Ada software.

As for the future importance and megalomanic POWER of software personnel - I printed out and posted on my office wall the pseudo- Executive Order by the Coward in Chief, Can't Keep His Pants Up, My But A Lot of Your Friends are Dropping Like Flies, President to "draft" software personnel to fix Federal Software Systems when the Year 2000 Apocalypse occurs. We'll fix'em alright! YEEEEEE HA!!

... now I've got to head back to the lab and troubleshoot some curious drab- olive boxes ...

(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:58 - ID#288295)

Yvan Auger's note about the diagonal triangle pattern in HM is also true with DROOY, except looks like DROOY has about finished - no new low following gold down. This one will be a rocketship when gold starts up!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 19:59 - ID#267276)
I call myself DIGDEEP because that is what you will have to do to get me out of the *% ^& #$! HOLE I AM IN. Shut off your computer now, go hug your family, buy some ice cream, watch Andy Griffith instead of CNBC, buy a little gold and silver as insurance and save your money. As it says on the door to hell, "ALL WHO ENTER HERE ABANDON ALL HOPE"

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:03 - ID#177109)
I have put up some charts at my primitive website, some of which you may not often see:

HighRise kindly pointed me toward the BakerHughes Oil Rig Count chart which I have looked for a long time.

This is all a simple appendix to the Year End Report, a small portion of which appeared at the Gold Eagle site:

Dave in CO
(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:05 - ID#215211)
@Spud Master
Are you serious about that pseudo executive order to draft programmers? Can you point me to it on the Net? I'm not from Texas but have many beliefs in common with you good folks.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:07 - ID#267276)
New book for attic
I am putting my book AT THE CREST OF THE TITAL WAVE by Robert Precther up in the attic with my copies of THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF 1990 by Ravi Batra and BANKRUPTCY 1995 by Harry Figgie !

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:13 - ID#31868)
Resident hardheaded goldneck here. I have the chance to buy an early edition of the Frank Veneroso - The Gold Book.

Question, do you think it is worth $300 ?

Lurker 777
(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:13 - ID#317247)
Are you gambler? I would not use the word prudent to describe using your credit cards for purchasing Gold. Interest alone is +19% and we have been in a bear market furthering your risk by falling prices. Unless an Angel has appeared to you and confirmed your thoughts I would not take the risk. Be careful and good luck.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:15 - ID#222167)
Grant: Question: What do the United States monetary system
and the TV show Sienfeld have in common?

Answer: They're both about nothing!

Anytime you can exchange something ( gold or silver )
for nothing ( the US credit- dollar ) , it's a good deal.

Buy gold and silver.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:16 - ID#267276)
Buy an oz. of gold instead and a bottle of Jack Daniels with the change.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:16 - ID#177109)
FWIW, I have some gold timing date clusters for the first half of 1998 which are derived from a number of different cycle techniques. ( Each date shows up in at least 2- 3 different cycle approaches. ) Friday was a minor one which could lead to a rally. Other dates are February 3 and 27, April 16, and especially June 3. The way I use these is to take a small contra- trend position on a move into these dates and add on confirmation of a turn. I didn't spend much time here in 1997, but those who remember some of these cycle calls from 1996 know that they can be quite good. Obviously some also bomb. As I say, FWIW and caveat lector.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:16 - ID#227238)
Be careful.
Grant: One year ago, most of us ( Selby excepted ) could not visualize the depths to which this SOB could go. If this is your initial trip into the dark environs of outcast's market, be prepared for additional pain and misery. ...... OTOH, yer $100 closer to the bottom than many others.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:21 - ID#23782)
Tol 1
Buy 1 more oz. gold, get your change back, and go
get more tequila. The entertainment value of the
book and the tequila are a wash, but the gold goes

Spud Master
(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:21 - ID#273112)
of course, Karlitissimo would argue...
...that there be good folk here. Arrrr. Arrr.

Dave in Co - the pseudo- excutive order "drafting" software engineers to wipe the Federal Governement's incompetent tail is posted here in these very hallowed pages, the real- time documentation of the collapse of the Greatest Scheme yet in human history to enslave us all. Rotting away like the worthless b*llsh*t lies & false promises that they are.

I think it dates from Jan 8th or 9th, so you won't have search to many Kitco entries. Perhaps the chap who posted would point you to it, or repost?

das Spudman, slayer of C/C++ crap- code...

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:23 - ID#344308)

front- - -

shlomo is quite a charachter....he/she ( i think female )
posted under many different names here last year......
the current name being used is the one attached to
the e- mails i have from her....quite interesting....
the ENTIRE STORY.....currently locked in my e- mail day.....i'll post it all.....
known by many other pseudo- nyms before bart instituted
his registration.......

here is an option i'll buy monday on the opening....use your own mind...

it has potential.......we'll see....may '98 soybean 5750 put @ $75.00...
this puppy should kick booty very soon........some big booty.....
beans coming down to around 550.....imnsho.......imm

just about tired of the bickering bs here lately......lgbito..both
of ya'll desist......the rest of you leave these worms alone....
dad- damnit.....don't make me get nasty....just look at bug eyed karlito..
that's nasty!

chaos and flux is amux us all....some will be the beneficiaries of more
than others......weigh all, and consider the future.....the scale is
adjusted daily.........

- - - - cherokee!;...chipping- away- at- the- - - - one- way- ticket- to- paradise- - em

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:24 - ID#31868)
Anybody out there with advice for a beer chaser and I am almost talked out of it.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:26 - ID#432221)
Observations of a AU neophyte
I sit here looking at the 20 OZ I've tossed my liquid assets at,and wonder how far I should go.My instinct is screaming "Lay your hands on all you can,regardless of the debt, situation dictates the risk of large losses acceptable in the face of the combination of factors that suggest gold's meteoric profitability.
1] asian gold flood
2]Stock market decline ( immenant )
3}The Asian ( and others ) lesson on the value of the metal
4 ) Producer's hardship ( mine bankruptcy )
5 ) The possibility that the word"s population may wake up to the realization that "PAPER IS PAPER, AND MONEYIS MONEY"
As catastrophic as it "COULD" turn out, I will buy as much gold as I can during the next few days, and I can tell you, the creditors have become so lax that i can hurt them badly by turning thier dollars into MY GOLD.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:27 - ID#288295)
Digdeep - Prechter's book

Although Bob has been too early in his predictions, maybe the wave is just beginning to show a little foam at the top....even a stopped clock is right twice a day.....

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:33 - ID#267276)
When I was young I was a good narural golfer, then I read books on how to improve my golf game and I tried to copy the styles of the pros. I soon developed a flawed swing and my handicap went up and I started to get worse. Later on in life I took a liking for horse raceing and became a fair handicapper and did allright. Then I began to read all I could about secrets of handicapping horse races, I new all the angles and I over handicapped and began to lose all the time. Several years ago I took a interest in the market and did ok. Then I started to study everything I could about the markets, government, world affairs, central banks and what have you and now Im down about 40% . Like I said IGNORANCE IS BLISS !

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:34 - ID#288399)
Really a housewife
My name is Dorothy and I don't even know what "foward viewing" is. Shlomo is the name of my cat. My cat is not an Israeli, but he is named after Rabbi Shlomo Goren who became the first person to lead a prayer service at the Western Wall after Israeli soldiers captured East Jerusalem in 1967. So, please don't think I'm some fighter pilot guy.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:37 - ID#288295)
grant @ betting the farm on gold

You obviously feel very strongly on the matter of physical gold, and I tend to agree ( even moreso with silver ) . BUT.....a prudent investor would often do better not betting the farm on any one thing - no matter how good it looks; none of us knows the future, or we wouldn't be here talking about possibilities.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:38 - ID#364147)
I'm on Pina Coladas tonight~~~~~~~~~~

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:40 - ID#288399)
Really a housewife
My name is Dorothy and I don't even know what "foward viewing" is. Shlomo is the name of my cat. My cat is not an Israeli, but he is named after Rabbi Shlomo Goren who became the first person to lead a prayer service at the Western Wall after Israeli soldiers captured East Jerusalem in 1967. So, please don't think I'm some fighter pilot guy.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:43 - ID#31868)
I am too far north to be drinking those. Has to be in the 80s for me.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:46 - ID#318118)
Barb Hughes
Barb- Are you still in the PM business and if so, where. Just curious.
Re: Your last message. I wondered if this love of the Austrian Phil. might be just a passing fad.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:47 - ID#22956)
uh oh...
I just got off the phone with my brother who knows this guy who has a brother whose cousins wife has a friend who knows someone who works part time with this other guy whose dad's best friend's cousin knows a lawyer and he said that I should retract and apologize...

so here goes....

I am sorry Ted :- )

To all: Ted in NO WAY made any of those remarks to me. I fabricated the whole thing and was joking about it all. Ted is an upstanding member in his community and respects ALL his neighbors and his fellow man ;- ) , right Ted?? And with reference to any brownies being made or consumed, that was all a joke. They were MY brownies and I ate ALL of them.....and WHOA! they were soooo good you could only eat one of them. As far as the comment to Spuds about shuting his pie hole........well, I made that one up too....I love you Spuds. And all the other stuff was just made up funnin'. Ain't no thang.

StudioR - please tell your homo- sapiens to back off. They called me and I had to pay them off with my wink. Dammit! It took me a long time to earn that was so shiny and hoo :- ( ( tears flowing ) ......

Sweat - I was VERY serious about Platinum. There is a nice Pennant formation and my call is that it will breakout UP. It will happen Monday. Be prepared and do your homework....ohmy.

Spuds - You are a Nazi?? That's ok. I'm an Aristocrat... see Jack there is some irreverence.


and sorry Bart....btw, nice job on the new layout.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:47 - ID#432221)
Unless something happens that is totally out of the ordinary ( as I understand the ordinary ) the farm is not at risk. In this country at this time debt can be drawn out almost indefinately as long as income can afford the interest rate. ( 5.9% everywhere ) .
I'll stop short of the farm.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:47 - ID#364147)
But I'm north of you....with the wood furnace it's about 80 anyway..Wonder how badly Larry Summers is fukin things up- - - as we speak ( yeah,still can )

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:47 - ID#344308)

ok folks- - - here is one of about 10 VERY INTERESTING ( laugh in )
e- mails from shlomo.....more to come if necessary....

wish you were a fighter pilot!

Thu, 10 Apr 1997 14:47:10 +1300
Barbara Shlomonson



Date: Mon Apr 07 1997 23:18
cherokee ( @smoke- signals ) :
al ( fargo, north dakota ) - - - -

- - - - - - - - - e- mail me your e- mail address- - - - - -


= = = = = = = = = = = =

Dear Cherokee,

I just came home from a business trip and jumped to my computer
to see if you replied to my post ( Al, Fargo, North Dakota ) .

I must confess now the exact details of that post:

Your posts represent my feelings.
I was wondering, what a person like me who knows nothing about gold
could do in order to impress our goldbugs
to listen more seriously to what you are saying.

When I heard Malachi Martin, I decided to combine his message with
as both of you are on the same "frequency", and he is very powerful,
even though he never spoke directly about gold or grains.

My post was not directed to you at all.
My intention was to make our group curious enough to go and listen to
Once they do it, they will be more receptive to your ideas.

I do not expect them to become Martins followers,
but hopefully your opinions will have more effect.
Your views are a little out of their "norms",
I hoped to push you into the "status- quo" region.

After writing my post,
I was wondering how to end my post with maximum effect on the readers.
I decided to look for chaos- story that will fit yours and Martins
I jumped to the recent- hot - news- stories and found the flooding in
North Dakota. I copied some details and now you know the "rest of the

I hope you forgive me,


(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:49 - ID#401183)
(tolerant 1)
Buy an ounce of gold and with the change a quart of EARLY TIMES WHISKEY!
In the morning you'll hear thunder, and it will be a challenge/fun exercise to figure out if it is from the whisky or SOUTHEAST ASIA!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:51 - ID#22956)
Tol 1
Stick to Tequila....and Foster's Bitter ( 25 oz. ) can. Can't go wrong.



(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:52 - ID#252127)
Get this

Camdessus will be in Maylasia on the January 15th and 16th, to discuss the Asian Crisis. He must have the b*lls of a lion; or is it senilty.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:54 - ID#318118)
Robert Prector
Silverbaron- Are you guys talking about Prectors 15 year old prediction
that gold is going down to $100, among other rediculious things???

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:54 - ID#364147)
EB-A little late for the retraction
Can't call off the dogs @ this point in time ( sorry ) ....

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:56 - ID#31868)
couple of bottles of whiskey, one tequila and some Fosters bitters. I yike, it should be a great week.

How much is a ticket to Malaysia?

Spud Master
(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:56 - ID#273112)
EB, you sly devil.

Nope, the Spudman is a pure- blooded mongrel American. I eat Nazis, Communists, Liberals AND idiot paper- pushers for breakfast.

I am worried slighty about contracting Bovine- EB- Spongiform- Encepholopathy from this diet. I try to cook it very, very well though ( big grin )

YEEEEE HA!! Serve'em up!

Strad Master
(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:58 - ID#250297)
REMOTE viewing!
SHLOMO and FRONT: It was "Remote Viewing" that Shlomo/Susan ( it was Susan not Nancy ) posted those exhaustive ( exhausting ) tomes about. It was supposedly a govenmnent sponsored system of seeing into the bedrooms of Russian government officials and oather such rubbish that could also see into the future with 100% accuracy. It was also all wound up with the nonesense regarding the Alien Space Ship that was going to arrive in the wake of the Hale- Bopp Comet - the same ship that got the "Heaven's Gate" people into BIG trouble! Were it not for the tremendously accurate remote viewers, that crackpot theory would never have been born and all those unfortunate souls would still be alive today. The theory is still advanced on Art Bell's radio show every now and again, by assorted "Technical Remote Viewers"- and most of us know what a credulous fool Art Bell is. ( Albeit always good for a laugh. ) Having reviewd all that stuff, perhaps we can now drop it.

FRONT: Glad to know that you are back to the world of the living after the horrible freeze. Thank God!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 20:59 - ID#22956)
Ted.......oh no...
It's a dog eat dog world out there....and I've got on dog- bone underwear.......OUCH!! find some kevlar inserts


(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:00 - ID#348169)
Sigh, Should be watching a Montreal Canadiens Hockey Game Like Bart!
That is if it's not been cancelled due to the DISASTER that has engulfed that region, where over ONE MILLION homes are without electricity or heat ( due to power lines being down ) and the local temperature is about 0 degrees Celcius. Sorry to interupt the normal camaraderie around here, but this is deadly serious stuff, mostly related to cherokees chaos and flux ( el nino - I'm now convinced that this IS THE year. ( Aurophile - write me for a Canadian update ) . And yet we seem to be discussing the wants ( or desires ) of some bimbo. Sorry folks, but a disaster area seems to be more important than some talk about some wannabe.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:00 - ID#215379)
Everybody wants in at the bottom
But gold has a way of testing the resolve of those who catch the first wave, hang tough....

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:01 - ID#427357)
NO, NO, NEIN, NIET, Eivt, Ei, Nulle, , etc

NO, NO, NEIN, NIET, Eivt, Ei, Nulle, , etc

tolerant1 ( all ) Resident hardheaded goldneck here. I have the chance to buy an early edition of the Frank Veneroso - The Gold Book. Question, do you think it is worth $300 ?

NO, NO, NEIN, NIET, Eivt, Ei, Nulle, , one could go on in 40 other languages, but the essence is the same NO! NO! & NO! His price is absurd, ridiculous AND totally outrageous if not exploitive!!!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:02 - ID#364147)
Better be buddy~~~~~~

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:03 - ID#60253)
Someone once said, noone wants gold, thats why the US$ price keeps falling. Many thinking ones laugh at such foolish chatter. They know that the price of gold is dropping precisely because too many people are buying it! Think now, if you are a person of great worth is it not better for you to acquire gold over years, at better prices? If you

are one of small worth, can you not follow in the footsteps of giants? I tell you, it is an easy path to follow! An experienced guide is not needed for this trail, look around you and see. The real money is selling ALL FORMS of paper gold and buying physical! Why? Because any form of paper gold is loosing value much, much faster than metal. Some paper will disappear all together in a fire of epic proportions! The massive trading continues at LBMA, but something is now missing? The CBs are no longer lending! They will not anymore! We have reached production costs. Oil will have nothing of gold paper if gold must stay in the ground! And a CB values the wishes of oil far above its return of leased gold! Hear me now, if gold tries to go lower than US$ $280 the BIS will buy it OUTRIGHT in the OPEN for all to see! They must! They will! I know. For no currency system could stand if Oil were to bid for gold!

Oil has kept the deal as the CBs sold paper to lower golds price! All is fair. Asia will bid for gold not as in the past. They now know that the free flow of oil has more value than the Pacific economy. But the price that was paid may be more than the world currency system can endure.

To close:

The US$ has risen on a flight of fear. That will now end as the LBMA shorts are given to wolves. If this fire burns too hot, gold will turn and its trading halted. The price of oil will explode as gold becomes the world oil currency! Even now oil has locked the IMFs gold, Asia will bid against them no more. We come to extreame times.

Risk not your wealth in paper, we enter a period of truth.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:04 - ID#31868)
the grasshopper has heard and listened...I shall remain venerosoless

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:05 - ID#288295)
tsclaw - Precther's book

Not specifically that prediction; just the book in general, which, I think, is very well done even though the outcomes may not be as he has predicted.

Basically he says that the whole collossal debt/credit/stock market house of cards is gonna come unraveled all at once, and everything, EVERYTHING! will deflate, big time. I don't agree with the gold prediction, but the Elliott Wavers tend to stick to their chart patterns. Yvan Auger ( discussed earlier ) is predicting the XAU bottoming at 35 which sort of fits a really low gold price.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:06 - ID#364147)
Mooney-------------------and the Montreal Forum
Planned my entire evening around watchin my beloved Rangers pound the Habs and the damn game gets cancelled- - - - and they put on the Leafs- Blackhawks ( I'd rather drink than watch that! ) as a subsitute...

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:08 - ID#252127)

Don't buy the book, forget about the tickek to Maylaysia.
Buy an ounce of gold and a bottle of good wine and enjoy.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:10 - ID#31868)
a bottle of wine eh,
so be it. on that evening I will finish up Buddhism Without Beliefs by Stephen Batchelor.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:11 - ID#401183)
According to my Jewish friends in NEW YORK, interest rates will be between one and two percent in three years, an imperative condition to save/jumpstart the United States of America economy in the aftermath of this imploding world economy crisis. BUY ALL THE SILVER AND GOLD ON CREDIT YOU CAN GET YOUR HANDS ON! If it goes against you, you will just be another piece of statistical data which has marched into FEDERAL COURT to file bankruptcy and will sustain the current uptrend in filing volume which has increased dramatically during the greatest financial time of properity in the history of mankind. It will not be any greater sin than the games that these governments/politicians are conducting and playing every day of the week. At worst you would attain the same status as GREENSPAN, CAMDESSUS, ETC.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:14 - ID#348169)
Leafs - Habs
Ted - I should have BET on it yesterday. My gut said that the game could not go on tonight with the worst ICE- STORM of the CENTURY taking place. People are dying and freezing to death. To that, even the best game on the earth must take pause.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:15 - ID#26669)
Light reading for background...
...philosophy as to why there are goldbugs. The principle might be articulated, that it is wise to build your house on a hill even if the floods come only once every few decades. IMHO

"Let Us Now Praise Famous Men" By James Agee, photos by Walker Evans is a biography of a group of US tenent farmers in the height of the great depression. In 1936 when the book was commisioned by Fortune magazine the US had endured most of FDR's first term with no sign of relief for the working people, except for the ones "lucky" enough to be chosen for the labor camps. There were still ten more years of depression to follow in the rural parts of the country, to be broken only by the wealth brought back by returning WWII servicemen. IMHO

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:17 - ID#215379)
according to your Jewish friends
We ARE following the footsteps of Japan only 10 years later

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:18 - ID#318118)
If he is correct ( except for his timing ) we all are in really bad smelling stuff up to our bald heads. I guess if that all happened it would be wise to own ALOT of ammunition for your sling shot!

Thanks for the anwser. That guy made me nervous 15 years ago and still does.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:18 - ID#347447)
TED: I remember a time when I would have killed ( well...maybe insulted someone ) to see the Leafs ( with Johnny Bowers, Frank Mahovlich ) and Blackhawks ( with Bobby Hull and Stan Mikita ) face off. Maybe a little before your time.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:22 - ID#25588)
FundaMETAList - The break down of wave 3 shows up more clearly on a hourly chart with clear 5th wave extentions in all the subwaves 1, 3 and 5. Send me your E mail address and I'll send you a chart ( ) . The momentem price low for wave 4 maybe in the low 550 area but the final wave 4 price could be some what higher. If silver trades between 620 and 550 over the next 10 days it would come closer to wave 2 in terms of time and give the whole pattern a better look.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:24 - ID#347447)
Mooney, & all
The seriousness of the situation in Canada is actually quite frightening. I am sure heartfelt wishes for a quick recovery to our Canadian friends is felt by all Kitcoites. An awesome reminder of how thin the veneer of comfort and predictability in even our modern age can be. Perhaps an insight into the sensitivity of many at this forum to economic corruption and disruption. We have little control over the weather and acts of God, and perhaps things like this are a warning to act with Rightness, Reason and Justice where we have the choice.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:24 - ID#432221)
Hoosier,my thanks for your thoughts

Interesting parallelism 'tween your outlook and mine.Your confidants merit heed

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:25 - ID#239377)
Karlito, where are you, I miss you, beer can...

Lurker 777
(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:27 - ID#317247)
Another: Are you saying gold will not close below $280 next week?
Hear me now, if gold tries to go lower than US$ $280 the BIS will buy it OUTRIGHT in the OPEN for all to see! They must! They will! I know.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:28 - ID#252127)

Jist beginning ter reelize dat spellign is won of my strong points. Maylaysia Maylasia and dat ain't all.

Lurker 777
(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:32 - ID#317247)
Cherokee how many phone lines and computers do you have?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:34 - ID#432221)
internet purchase

Is there a way/ what's the best way to buy gold with a credit card here?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:37 - ID#215379)
interesting chart
As I was perusing the Friday charts, I noticed something unusual. The T- bond yeild chart and the Fed funds chart showed a vertical spike up at the close. Could this be a HUGE sell order of T- bonds at the close, which would be an excellent time for Japan to dump a boatload of T- bonds. Probably just a fluke in the computer, or was it ???????

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:37 - ID#259400)
Gold Bugs
When gold was $350 gold bugs said buy. When gold was $320 gold bugs said buy. When gold was $290 gold bugs said buy. Gold is now in the $270's and they still say buy. They will be saying buy all the way down to $140 which is where gold will wind up before it is all over. After all, other than jewelry and a few small computer parts, what can you actually do with gold? At some point in time gold will drop to it's correct place in the industrial scheme of things and it's value will be only relative to it's value as an industrial commodity. Every so often there is a sea chane in the world and gold is facing one of those now. Other than it's use in jewelry and computer parts it's value is nil to none. Or am I wrong? If so respond.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:40 - ID#290271)
Hockey cancellations and gold futures....
Ted and Mooney.....I'm a big hockey fan from way back! Any ol' hockey game is fine with me - - certainly better than how the gold market has been treating me! However, I have not quit my day job and am buying the physical when I can - - I quit buying into my mutual fund after it dropped 40% . I'm still in, and will probably jump back in when I see a solid move up.

Yup, I'm still here.....just lurking around and doing what the Olympic Figure Skating judges do: I throw out the high and low score and work in the middle. In other words, I disregard the high- pitched panic posts and disregard the low- brow- haven't- thought- this- one- through posts. Go gold!! All the best from the Rockies........

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:45 - ID#30116)
What else? Gold...
Let's keep a perspective on where we've been and came from. I would love to see a bottom put in here. Bottoms and base building take time. What do you see in this chart?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:46 - ID#344308)

lurker777- -

1 pewter.....1 phone line.................
1 laptop with travelin aol.... piece- of- sh!t........dude......

go back and research....i've got the dates....AND LET BART TELL YOU
WHO POSTED as who!!.........

c'mon bart- - - - - - - at my request.....lay old 777 to rest.....have i
ever posted as shlomo or any similar critter?

i welcome it..........C'MON BART........

my linen is not soiled with the image of another.......!;/

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:46 - ID#290271)
Bill2j.......I can't see gold going to $140. Gold has *always* been a safe haven in troubled times. And quite frankly, we've had no trouble for about 10 years. I'm a coin and gold dealer and I can't keep bullion in my inventory. I even jacked up the premium on Eagles and Leafs ( and platinum ) and they keep lining out the door. All the little 'schmoes' are buying and it's just a matter of time before that hits the global markets. I had a guy walk in the other day with 40 brand new 100 dollar bills and walked out with an equivilant amount in Gold Eagles. And that been happening more and more and more. I dunno the bottomline, but I firmly believe that gold will see better days......

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:47 - ID#401183)
Everything is RELATIVE!
People commit murder and get off. Politicians rape and pillage their constituents and get off. Fiat money players make the world poorer to regain/gain control. Even us MIDWEST, CONSERVATIVE, IGNORANT, GOLDBUGS look on bankruptcy, divorce, etc. as no longer a disgrace or shameless state as our rearing parents/guardians kept pounding and reinforcing years ago. If it gives us an edge, ( PHYSICAL POSSESSION OF IMPORTANT SUBSTANCE ) , we're willing to sacrifice our honor ( what's that ) , uprighteous attitude and conduct, ( what's that ) to get ahead in this game.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:47 - ID#267276)
GOLD IS MONEY, central banks around the world have hundreds of billions of dollars worth of bullion in storage, much of it in the basement of the N.Y. Federal Reserve building. It is used for inter- country tranfers of funds, and the Fed acts as the holding agent for many countries. If you want a great answer to your question you must read in Ann Rands book on capitalism ( copyright 1966 ) chapter 6 by ALAN GREENSPAN titled GOLD AND ECONOMIC FREEDOM and you will soon understand.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:49 - ID#290271)
Panda's chart
Panda.....YIKES!! Your chart is pretty scary!! If you're looking for "bottom building" it looks more like "bottom fishing" in a strange lake without a depth meter [G]. As I said before...."I dunno".....but hopefully the end is near.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:50 - ID#35767)
If gold is a worthless industrial commodity then why are Asian govts BEGGING their people for it.HMMM
As to buying at 320/290 etcet. in 1973- 1974 some said to buy stks at 900/800//700 etcet. Were they wrong?

As to supply of gold most jewelry can not be traded as it would cost a fortune to bring up to pure quality. The Cbs have loaned alot of theirs out. And the Asian govts by asking for gold have PROVEN its monetary value. This will be the spin when the price rises.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:50 - ID#23782)
What quantity of GOLD, paper or physical, has OIL
traditionally purchased on an annual basis?
How much paper GOLD is out there ready to be
squeezed? Do you think OIL will be able to
collect what is owed to them?

Why would OIL not want some ownership of

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:52 - ID#243212)
Eivat, Ei....
How come you use plural and singular in the same sequence????? ;- ) )

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:55 - ID#427357)
Jaakko ( Eivat, Ei.... ) : My humble way of being EMPHATICALLY EMPHATIC! ( :- ) ) ) .

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:55 - ID#215379)
gold value ?
Somebody said that you can still buy a good suit for an oz of gold, but you can't buy anything for a nickel anymore

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:56 - ID#252127)

We goldbugs are dipsters at heart.
Talk about sea It was just a short time ago when it was 'elitist opinion' that China and the SEA nations were the place to be.
No one knows what the future will bring, but those in Asia have seen their paper burn while the speculators buy them out with a possibly cheaper material that also burns and backed by trillions in debt. TAI

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:56 - ID#267276)
Please explain what you see in that chart i
n case I missing something ?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:57 - ID#344308)

lurker777- -

here is another of shlomo's e- mails to me- - - - - - -

go back to the archives at kitco....never have played games....
never will.......don't believe? ke sera sera.....the truth
remains the truth.....

Fri, 18 Apr 1997 18:58:35 +1300

Dear Cherokee,

You wrote me once, you asked me to write you. Al.....
I did.
You did not reply.

You wrote me again to housewife....
I replied again.
you did not reply. Again.

You and me are on the same 'frequency'.
We both love Kitco, the goldbugs and America.
What could possibly justify you not replying ???

Even if you despised me
the least you can do is tell me to go to hell.
Common decency and etiquette
which I know we both share
require that you reply to my e- mails.....

Unless you are working for the government.

I doubt that the government has any interest in this group.
We are probably one of the most civilized groups on the Internet.



also: Al, housewife, dipthrot...... and another dozen handles.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:57 - ID#290271)
Gold as money last thought....In S. Korea, the govt asked that if any citizen would like to turn in their gold ( jewelry, bullion, whatever ) , they will take it to pay down their international debts. I understand that the turn- in campaign has netted somewhere around $500 MILLION! Obviously someone somewhere feels the gold is worth something......

(Sat Jan 10 1998 21:58 - ID#243212)

O.K.. so you know....

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:01 - ID#344308)

lurker777- - -

bart- - - who posted this??

here is another one

- - - - - - Subject:
Sat, 19 Apr 1997 09:46:19 +1300
js cherokee@hal-
1 , 2

Hi Cherokee,

regarding your question about Richard Hoagland
you really must listen to last night show.

in one sentence:
all our society was MANIPULATED by a secret organization
within the intelligence community for the last 50 years !!!
They have technology we can not comprehend.

This group has 100% control over the media.
They have thousands of people controling our society
under mind control.
Yes it was hard for me to believe it myself.

If you want to know the truth
you have to work very hard.
My sources are only Art Bell and the Internet.

The government killed the 39 heavens Gates
just in attempt to distroy Art Bell.
They never wanted to commite suicide
it was against thier principles
read this:


when the FBI told us yesterday ( norad )
that they are dealing with internal terrorism
They manipulated you to think that it is another oklahoma.

In effect, they meant terrorism by UFO's based in the USA.

But goldbugs already knew about it, thanks to my post:


Date: Fri Apr 18 1997 13:24
cherokee ( @pertinent- question- to- wbmstr ) :
bart- - - -

can you dileneate the benefits of not
requiring posters to use their real
handles from their e- mail addresses?

thanks.- - - - -

You are wondering why I think next year is the end:

Looking at all the predictions
the statistical probabilty that they will not happen

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

Yes the world will exsist
and we will have war for a few years.
But this year is the end of our
normal comfortable way of life.

Read the Hopi predictions



(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:04 - ID#344308)

lurker777- -

here is another to me from shlomo......

Sat, 19 Apr 1997 11:05:05 +1300
js cherokee@hal-
1 , 2

Dear Cherokee,

Some thoughts about the price of gold:
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

In contradiction to everything said by our goldbugs

It can mean only one thing.......SUPPLY- DEMAND.

We know the demand exceeds present production.

It means someone is dumping gold.

Why now ???


Speculation ??? what do you think ?

According to my future scenario...this year
people will soon be killing each other in the streets for food.
A $342 nugget will not help you as much as $20 pistol.

Over 1 000 000 people will be removed from welfare this month

but i can not comment about it, i have no other info.

I assume that by now you realize that remote viewing is a fact.
If you don't,
please do not bother to e- mail me again.

Please excuse my impatience,
I will always love you and your posts,
it is just that at my old age
I am not in the business of convincing people anymore

Best regards


(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:05 - ID#30116)
I'm an ardent gold bull, but! At some point gold will turn, I just wouldn't place heavy bets on bottom fishing. The chart is tooooo damn straight for me! Either there is no interest in gold or 'something' else is happening to gold. I said a while back that bullion was better than the paper version. The paper markets are subject to the whims of the media. Witness Louies R's show. Stocks get in to trouble and they drag out Abby Cohen to give a pep talk! Gold and gold stocks are not getting this support, yet.

I look at the chart of WDEPY and wonder where the bottom will be? Maybe $10? Where will the XAU bottom? Fifty, maybe? The problem is that they all look tempting to me. What's that Old Testament quote? "If thine eye offend thee, pluck it out." I guess the modern day translation might be to not look at the shares????

Lurker 777
(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:05 - ID#317247)
Bottom fishing
Panda please go back and stop the chart at $280. ( OUCH )

Cherokee I remember a long time ago someone inferred you were B.T. so I thought I would razz you a little. You are the one and only Cherokee.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:07 - ID#344308)

just love that old cut and paste option.....don't you?

here is another- - - - - -

ordinery man experimenting in Remote Viewing
Sat, 19 Apr 1997 12:36:19 +1300
js cherokee@hal-
1 , 2

Wed, 16 Apr 1997 20:25:39 - 0700
From: ( David Hathcock )

Have been viewing for apx 7 mo now. Have also heard both Joe and Ed talk
'significant new discoveries'. Can hardly wait. PJ, we are counting on

Also, some things I belive I have learned that may be of help to others.

1. A THEORY of how this thing works is critical to confidence and
MY THEORY - There exists a fourth dimension we have failed to
recognize as 'real'. It has these characteristics, - NO LIMITS on TIME
SPACE and includes all the knowledge that ever was, is, or will be.
Further, since there is no limit on space, all knowledge of all
times could and does reside INSIDE EACH of our skulls all the time. I
believe further that our sixth sense is really an OR circuit on our
5 sense input to the analytical and physiological brain functioning
components. Further, all this information is stored/addressed by
parameters and therefore describes our targeting requirement as well as
collection requirements.
This theory stands the test as to why there is no 'smoking gun' on
radiation, speed of light time limit on telepathic events, and no
restrictions on past/present/future viewing sessions.
( helps me anyway )

2. Targeting needs careful tasking INTENT and TECHNIQUE to land at
correct site at the correct time. ( OUTSIDE Stray Cat- AOL management
probs )

3. Collection requires a building up of self detection to know from
WHICH 'OR' circuit leg the information is reaching the
conciouness/analytical functioning. I believe our physical brain has the
sensories to this fourth dimension and utilize the senses as input to
rest of brain functioning.

I know I'm no scientist, but I do need belief in the how- to's to keep
My sessions have often been quite a struggle and ego, imagination,
technique, attitude, etc have contributed to some ugly misses. However,
hits blow me away and as PJ says - you have to be also able to handle
success in psi functioning. Theory and understanding of how and how- to
really helps.

You have your own theories I'm sure for endurance. This thing is a
of the world. Theoretically, we can change the past with the psi
If the past changes, so the present and future. Here we go again.

Thx for the ear........... By the way, how do I stimulate colors???


cherokee!; ) .....what- the- hell??

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:09 - ID#22650)
JTF: paradigm...hard science...not-so-hard science
JTF: Earlier in the day you made the statement "the paradigm of our next era is the merging of hard science with not so hard science. I believe you said previouly that you were a working physicist and therefore trained in the "hard sciences". I am interested in what you mean by the "not- so- hard sciences". Are you speaking of phenomenon trying to be explained by quantum physics, such as elf ( extremely low frequency ) energies, energy medicince ( magnetics, frequency generators homeopathy ) and radionics? I know that this does not relate directly to the gold forum discipline, but I am interested in the thoughts behind that statement. I work in agriculture, specializing in integrated fertility programs and have come across some of these not- so- hard sciences not at all accepted by the ag establishment, but producing results in the field.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:09 - ID#344308)

here is another- - - - - -

Thu, 24 Apr 1997 15:19:01 +1300
CHEROKEE cherokee@hal-

= = = = = = = = = = = =





AND GOLD IS FLAT !!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:12 - ID#288295)
grant @ gold buying over the net

Don't know whether you can buy physical gold over the net, but you CAN open an account at E- gold. Go to and click on the e- gold banner for info.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:12 - ID#35767)
Larry Summers
Ours guys are rushing to Indonesia but no news yet. What does anyone see for next week. I thought the rescue at the end of the day on Wednesday would herald an upswing. It looks like THE "Plunge Protection Team" was in there on Wednesday and Friday before the opening. It looks like maybe they are losing control. Well the bigger the bubble gets and the longer it lasts the more balls they have to keep in the air. Remember what David Koresh's place looked like when it went up/Hmm... could there be a financial market analogy here.

I hope Larry Summers enjoys the great weather in Indonesia.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:13 - ID#427357)
ALAN GREENSPAN: Can a leopard change his spots...?

In 1981 Alan Greenspan spilled his guts, poured his heart out, gave us the straight- skinny, let it all hang out ABOUT WHAT HE REALLY THINKS ABOUT THE GOLD STANDARD. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY, he spoke in everyday common, clear language... he obviously wanted EVERYONE TO GRASP HIS THOUGHT, to comprehend, indeed to understand the essence of the GOLD STANDARD... its benefit and its control of THE IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE OF POLITICIANS. Is this the echo of the future?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:13 - ID#344308)

and another- - - - - from shlomo - - -

Sun, 25 May 1997 01:22:17 +1200
js cherokee@hal-
1 , 2

While Ted and Tortfeasor are waiting for Cherokee, and no one knows WHAT
FOR THREE DAYS..........I will drop in for just a second.

The golden moment for gold is coming soon. Keep your eyes on the Stock
it will go first to 8000 and then...... Remove Dec97 options from the
wall, you will be
able to purchase with them that condominium in Florida...... The only
problem, the
condominium will be flooded with the hurricanes this summer.

Recently I found this wonderful group
and read with great interest most of your posts for this year.
I had so much fun I just cant believe my luck.
No one even charged me for reading all your stimulating posts.
( I hope BART will not read this post, he may get some ideas.... )

While most of you have torn your hair with frustration,
IMHO only one of you ( Jan- 2, 14:13 ) grasped the complexity of
deception in this field,
unfortunately, he left very little impression on you.

If you had any success with trading, it is mostly due to luck and
intuition IMHO.
Knowledge has little to do with success, If you are not familiar with
Remote Viewing
according to my husband who worked for the Military. And if our Military
is using
regularly RV, my husband is absolutely sure that the Americans have been
using RV too
for many years.

As gold is not inspiring any intellectual stimulation at the moment, how
about :

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:14 - ID#348169)
Happy New Year To Al That See!
Mike S. - Happy New Year. Right On!
Cherokee- I can't believe that you are getting sucked in to defending yourself. I was that stupid a while ago but then I haven't been on that SSMFT ( or whatever ) for many years. C'mon, don't stoop. I did, last year, to relieve the site of the cretin, but that was a worthy cause! Get back to spreading the word of chaos and flux ( I'll back you up, Because, IT IS HAPPENING! ) . Ignore bimbo and scrud rumblings. Kilroy has been present in my comments tonight, engage yourself accordingly!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:15 - ID#243212)
Government of S.Korea seems to know better than the people....guess how much they would have collected in 1980 when gold was shooting up sometimes $100 a day... and peaking at $850!!!....people were lining up on the street to buy gold ( 97% ) and only 3% were lining up to sell it...that was the time to sell!!!...when people are giving out this "worthless" commodity to their government FREE, would you think it is the right time to buy it with both hands????

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:17 - ID#30116)
Digdeep - - I was just 'injecting' a 'little' reality here. Like any physical object, price possesses momentum. Just as you cannot stop an automobile moving at seventy miles per hour in five feet, neither will this price drop stop on a dime either. If it did, then to paraphrase the song, "It's the end of the world as we know itand I wouldn't feel so fine"

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:18 - ID#344308)

and that was the last i heard from shlomo......

benefit to me- - - - - - - - nada......

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:19 - ID#427357)
Can a leopard change his spots?

Aragorn III
(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:19 - ID#212323)
Single best reason to buy gold
Your fair share is only 2/3 ( two thirds ) t oz.! Somebody please check my math ( and spelling! ) . If all of the above ground gold were to be gathered up and then evenly distributed among every living man, woman and child...that's all you'd get. Period. Would you like more? I know some on this site would be quick to give theirs away and short sell it also. But for the rational ones, consider the question- - At what price do you think you would be successful in trading paper currency to someone else to relinquish their share? Consider this also...If all of the world's fiat ( confidence ) currencies were to be evenly distributed, what would be the resulting fair share? A nice assortment of green, red, blue, and yellow portraits of deceased rulers and what not.

Given that, if I were to work up a sweat all week doing hard labor and then asked for my preference of payment- - either US$280 or ONE t- ounce gold, I would not hesitate to take the gold. But I would probably wonder how my employer came about his gold supply and why he regards it so cheaply!

Do you regard yourself among the world's affluent, or at LEAST abouve average? What is your measuring stick? Do you own a physical supply of gold that represents your wealth in relation to your average person? Those with an eye for value will not waste time and lose sleep in a futile attempt at bottom fishing. Get peace of mind...get gold.

Be greatful that the US dollar is so strong at the moment. Waiting for gold to fall further in price is to expect the dollar to get significantly stronger. As paper globally is experiencing falling confidence, how will the American patterns of ink avoid the same reality- check?

The ONLY paper that governments should be printing are election ballots! People of the world can come to terms on matters of exchange independant of government activity. "Sure, I'll mow your lawn...for a gram of gold or a six- pack of beer- - whatever you got." Just think about it...governments in the business of printing ( creating- - via banks ) money! What a farce!

I want my fair share...times 1,000! And God bless 'em, some idiots are actually selling to me!!!!!!!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:21 - ID#427357)

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:21 - ID#28585)
@CJS1...I couldn't retrieve the info...
Sorry, but I tried to access the website you provided and received an error message. Do you have another suggestion?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:24 - ID#177109)
thanks for the tip on how to spell muleesian. no make that malaysian, er.....;- )

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:24 - ID#344308)

moon- man- - - - -

the story tells its' own tale......if it sounds defensive......

absolutely is OFFENSIVE...!;....and factual.....

chaos and flux? who're they??? !; ) .....cherokee.....

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:27 - ID#288295)

Can you indicate timing - the end of Ramadan?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:27 - ID#364147)
Hi Scotty..........................and Mike Sheller---nope not---------
before my time....ROR: Larry Summers is an IDIOT who will only make the'situation' worse....CherOkee: huh

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:33 - ID#243212)
I'm not ( ( ( jack ) ) ) nor was it malaysian...if you meant my comment.... ( ? )

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:33 - ID#224151)
@ Digdeep
Re your Ignorance is Bliss.Ain't it the truth.And I've got a few more volumes for that Attic library of yours.

The Hatt
(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:34 - ID#294232)
Mutual Fund Meltdown Has Begun and the damage control is in full force!
The ad reads donot be fooled by volitile markets give us your money and we will apply our strategy of buying on dips and cost averaging! Can you believe these so called money managers reaching out for more money at a time when many are forced to borrow to cover redemptions. The outflows for last week must have been staggering and you can expect the mania to continue next week. The stock is moving from strong hands to weak hands and until the distributional phase is final the last thing these jokers want is a panic in the markets. For the second time in 69 years the poor are about to be fleeced out of their life savings and the rich will simply blame the mutual fund industry. Many many indicators support the fact the unwinding process has already begun and if you own an equity or bond fund my advice would be to sell it now while you have a chance. Donot let these bas##### steal your money again!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:34 - ID#348169)
Cherokee - I don't know the whole story as I haven't been keeping current. It just seemed to me that when I tuned in you were being sucked in to devious dimensions. How does: GOLD, GRAINS, El Nino, people DYING in Canada's worst ICE STORM of the CENTURY sound to you?. What's important? Comments are welcomed from ALL!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:38 - ID#35767)
In that year as the stock mkt was unraveling gold was rising near the end of a two year+ bull market. Bonds were going in the dumper. When the panick hit Bonds began a multi year bull ( to this day ) and gold crashed then made on final rally to 500 in Jan 1988 and has been down for ten years. Now gold is crashing relentlessly while bonds scale new heights. Will a panick this time be the reverse of 1987. A panick now and you can forget fiscal and monetary sanity or unity. Malaysia rufusing the IMF aid may be the beginning. The panic will cause the sea change to gold from financials as what is happening and its implications will be clear for all to see. Further and importantly it will be everyone for him/herself in other words no cooperation.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:41 - ID#243212)
Your URL reference does not connect, others do....

Golden Boy
(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:43 - ID#430233)
Could someone be kind enough to give the URL for the site where the latest currency quotes are available?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:44 - ID#23782)
Prices is NOT a physical thing, it is a concept.
Your graph had a couple of short term moving
averages. So What. What was that yellow line
supposed to be. It had no label.
Your graph tells where we were, but not necessarily
where we are going.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:49 - ID#243212)
Golden Boy (Currency quotes)
These quotes are as of 3:20 PM yesterday... bin/flash.cgi

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:49 - ID#344308)

moon- man- - -

those e- mails have haunted me for a long time- - - - -

glad they are in the open....for all to see......too

bad kitco has such a high turn- over......the whole

story is last years copy......

lurker777's inference, caused me to launch the atomic- e- mail- bomb....

hope there is only one casualty........

big trader??????? PLEEEASSSEEE.......there is not enough time for

me to get my message across, much less that of some pseudo- dummies.....

i told all he was a big dummy from the VERY BEGINNING....just as I DID

BRE- X......JUST AS SILVER IS A FARCE NOW!! YES ME......the lover of the tree, and the limb........more limb crawling before monday......


(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:51 - ID#432221)

My 401K allows me electronic funds transfer, tween now and Monday, I'll transfer all I can to muni bonds and withdraw the rest to buy EAGLES. COMMENT?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:54 - ID#348286)
Downtown Montreal still mostly blacked- out.
The weather is extremely strange, windy +1 C, when normally it's - 20 C.
Greenhouse effect, El Ninio or Camdessus ???

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:56 - ID#239377)
Your are wrong for a very simple reason of not
considering the cost of gold mining. If average
cost is $275 or so around the world, that is where
drop of POG is gonna stop. It can go down a little bit
more and stay there for some time, but it will
be coming back to match the cost of mining.

I would assume may drop to $270- 265 before going
to $350.

$140/oz is against the nature.

Read "The Proffesional Commodity Trader" by Stanley Kroll.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 22:56 - ID#34592)
Buy calls of "National Debt"

... Sure bet, is going up $1 bil. every 33 hrs.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:00 - ID#398105)
Pete..........GOLD and DRUGS............Jo'burg, London and Hong Kong

A few years ago I read a book concerning the above subject. For the life of me, I cannot recall the author or title. Could you refresh my memory.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:00 - ID#344308)

more- gold- - - - -

gimme some time- - - - - i've neglected the weather of late!; )

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:00 - ID#348286)
Eagles good choice, 9999 pure. You may want to stagger your puchases, as I think we may break into the 250. - 260. range.
Im holding off for now.......

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:01 - ID#288295)
The Hatt - Mutual Fund Meltdown

Even some of the sheep who I know have started zeroing out....and these are the guys that bought the buy/hold story for the last couple years!

Next week we may not be able to get on the net at all, with all the broker calls! Anyone know where the S& P futures are trading over the weekend?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:01 - ID#348169)
cherokee and ALL
And after all is said and done:
Flag is drilling!
The truth is, ( out there? ) , IRRELEVANT!
The drill results will be.
Talk Soon.
BTW - 1998 IS the year of chaos and flux! Gold , Golden Grain, Soybeans, Sugar, Pork Bellies etc., are ALL low! Look for el Nino to change everything. AND THEN Black Gold, Gold, and Poor Man's Gold will rebound. 1998.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:02 - ID#348286)
@Checkout time
Off for now, power surges, gotta protect my pentium............

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:03 - ID#341214)
Dave in CO

Did you find the Programmer Confiscation post with the "Executive Order"? I can repost if you like. I took the copy of FDR's order and had some fun with it.

BTW - Loved your idea on Karlito the cyborg. Had me rolling off my chair. You might not be too far off the mark, eh.


Dave in CO
(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:04 - ID#215211)
@Grant - ignore me if you've already checked
I'd check the documentation on your 401K. Mine ( large company ) has strict rules about withdrawals. You can borrow against it but if you withdraw ( unless under exceptional circumstances ) you must pay a 10% IRS penalty in addition to the obscene tax rate for 1998. Yours may differ, however.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:10 - ID#215379)
401K transfer
You should be able to transfer your money in 401K to money market funds. This will help bring down short term rates and yeild curve

Dave in CO
(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:10 - ID#215211)
If you can point me to the date/time, thanks. I was half- serious about Karlito. Everyone else I've seen here shows varying degrees of a sense of humor except Karlito. If he's not software, he's been brainwashed like the "Manchurian Candidate."

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:10 - ID#432221)

Im interested in the claim .999....... is that fact?? My imrpession WAS ( IGNORANT NEOPHYTE ) that the EAGLE was the typical 22K coinage. Am I wrong?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:10 - ID#288295)
grant @ muni-bonds

Short- term munis probably look OK, but watch out if a severe credit crunch comes along...nobody knows just what impact a major deflation would have on muni debt, but I bet it won't be pretty.

Also there is the question of derivatives impact, such as in Orange County California, when the muni bonds went to zip ovenite.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:12 - ID#344308)

dave 401k's are all bound by the same basic guidelines.....

very stiff penalties for anything other than hard- ship...
they have you by the ba!!s!............

the peopleo will not realize the REAL RESTRICTIONS until their
neck is under the heel of the authorities.......the gov't
has joe blow by the testies.........and oh what a grip he has!!

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:13 - ID#344205)
COMEX is only but a refernence to the value of paper gold, NOT physical.
It is interesting to watch all these various reasons for golds fall..but most are missing the REAL issue.

The fact is, that when we talk about the purchase of gold, we are really talking about two divergent things:
a. that of the physical metal ( money )
b. that of a paper derivative, an I.O.U., kind
of like a dollar bill ( currency )

What ( and who ) determines the price every day of the gold market?

Obviously, everyone looks first to COMEX as a reference before adjusting their prices.

What does COMEX use?

Supply and demand determined by its participants, who trade in gold contracts ( er ah, derivatives? ) , gold leases, and options and futures ( er ah, derivatives of derivatives ) .

One point must be plainly put forward:
Gold contracts, no matter what they are printed on or HOW they are worded, they are merely DEBTS, nothing more than a simple I.O.U. There is nowhere near enough gold on the planet to satisfy all these I.O.U.s ( debts ) that are outstanding.. and they are the very antithesis of what acumulators ( hoarders ) of wealth find in the spirit of holding real gold ( money ) .

I find it so wildly insane that holders of physical gold, ( money ) , would allow their wealth to be sold ( or valued ) at a price that is established by the supply of FIAT gold. If this scenario was written into a novel, no one would believe it. or one would read it only as a comedy.

ANOTHER said it quite well, in his comment that there is no end to the amount of paper gold that can be created. All of this FIAT supply has overwhelmed the REAL demand for physical, and most people believe that they REALLY have purchased gold, when they buy these contracts. As long as the majority of gold purchasers believe that their paper is as real as physical, the COMEX paper gold value reference will continue to drop.

I for one, no longer accept established paper gold values for the real value of gold. Just try and buy a substantial quantity of the yellowand what do you see? 6 months ago, you could buy at spot. Today, one ounce coins have a premium of $14 over spot.and rising every day. Oh, and dont forget that even when paying the premiums, one has to really work at finding the coins for delivery. Easier said, there is now a phenominal demand, but very little supply of physical. And yet we allow paper to determine gold prices. Gold has never had the brute demand as what we have todayyet we are told that prices are down due to lack of interest.

COMEX should now be looked upon as the animal that it really is
A REFERENCE TO THE VALUE OF PAPER GOLD. It has nothing to do with the price of physical beyond suckering in the few ignorant to sell there physical for the price of paper.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:19 - ID#288295)
grant @ Eagles

I think you're correct. They contain 1 oz of .999 gold, but there is some alloying material. Maples, Kruggerands, Philharmonics, Nuggets, I believe, are pure ( .999 fine ) and weigh less than Eagles, but all contain same amount of gold.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:19 - ID#432221)
Dave in CO

Withdraw was the wrong term your right ,,SUBSTANTIAL tax penalties for "withdrawel" ( although if what I hear is right,may be worth it ) on the order of 30% ,,,,I was speaking of the Borrowing thing.Thanks for your input.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:22 - ID#215379)
keep your gold
So the producers of gold should not sell their gold, but borrow paper money against it to pay for cost of production...

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:23 - ID#398105)
Oris and John Disney...............Karlito99

Come on lads, give Karlito a break.

He can't help it if he's the sort of guy who wears unnatural fabrics and gets he kicks from rolling around on nylon carpets!

He most likely has a philosophy that if he's not part of the solution, he's part of the problem. The drop in the GOLD price is probably personally his fault!

He tries to see the GOLD BUGS point of view, but he probably sleeps in his contact lenses, on hessian sheets.

.....growth of the NATIONAL DEBT and the Dow. A response please!

Aye, Haggis

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:27 - ID#23782)
You said it 100 times better than I could ever
hope to.

Golden Boy
(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:27 - ID#430233)
Jaakko: Thanks for replying. The problem is that the site didn't show up.
Would you please post the site again. TIA

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:28 - ID#398105)

G'Day Mate,

We have not heard from you this weekend. Don't you work at weekends?

Aye, Haggis

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:28 - ID#364147)
@ The End
G'nite all~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:29 - ID#30116)
sweat - - The yellow line is a just that, a line I drew to approximate the downward slope. Nothing more. Everyone sees what they want to see in a chart. No more and no less. Sometimes it helps to smooth out the squiggly bumps.

Price is a concept? Yes and no. It is the means we use to assign the relative 'worth' of objects to labor expended. Sometimes you have realize that trading financial instruments is a 'real' thing. You can make or lose 'real' money. This money represents your expended labor, a store of value. Your labor for a given task has a 'price' or 'value' associated with it. Is your labor a concept or a reality?

I'm not trying to pique you. The point is that it costs real labor to buy food, cars, homes, and gold. If the rate of labor exchange for a unit of goods changes, this is real, no? If you paid a 'larger' quantity of your labor for the same good last week than you could have paid for it today, is this not a wasting of your labor? In other words, a financial loss. So this concept of price has just cost you the possible purchase of some other goods or needed services. That is very real.

Sorry for being esoteric, but if I buy a bullion coin for $320 and it now sells for $280, I have lost at least $40. That is $40 that I do not have anymore. Reality, what a concept. :- ) )

Chill out and relax. There is a bottom. I just don't where it is. If anyone out there thinks that just because they are buying gold, it will go up.... :- ) )

I've traded gold stocks and options for at least a day and half. :- )

When they go, they go fast! When they suck wind.... just look around. I never thought that the HUI would go down to these levels. I thought 150 was low. Then I saw 143, 137, 115, 90s, and now mid eighties. I've dabbled in the XAU from the 130 to mid ninties. Where are we now on th XAU? Sixty three or so?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:36 - ID#432221)

I guess the bottom line is "The only thing of worth will be GOLD" what about foodstuffs, antibioticcs,fuels,booze,and high techs?
Is it safe to dump all for AU?

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:37 - ID#34592)
Dreamer's math!

There are 30 million investors in the US. What if the decided to buy
10 ozs each, just for diversity?

CBs will supply it, haaaaaaaaa.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:38 - ID#243212)
Golden Boy (Currencry rates)

Try this... bin/flash.cgi

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:42 - ID#243212)
Golden Boy (Currency rates)
Sorry, please remove the space in the URL ...the system seems to add it there for no appearent reason....

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:43 - ID#432221)

Problem is,, 10 OZ aint poop

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:45 - ID#30116)
sweat - - One last comment. Gold will always be gold. It is not a debt instrument or someone elses obligation. Payment in gold always concludes a financial agreement.

Fiat currencies are debt obligations. They are subject to political perceptions. They do not conclude a financial transaction.

The last sentence may sound strange, but think about it. How can a debt obligation conclude anything? If your debt obligation depreciates with time, you must 'use it or lose it'. Thus, the concept of interest on money. Interest is the risk premium paid in loaning or borrowing money. By this very definition, we can see that money 'held' over time is a risk that must be compensated for. The market tells us this.

It is somewhat ironic that one of the complaints often lodged against holding gold is that it pays no interest! How could it? It represents the obligation of no one! Is there a risk of gold defaulting? Hmmmm. I think that's a nonsensical statement. :- ) )

Anyhow, it's getting late... and the mind is getting foggy.........

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:48 - ID#341214)
Dave in CO: The "Executive Order" is at Jan 9, 18:11

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:49 - ID#60253)
CMAX: You are exactly correct! Follow your thoughts. good luck

SWEAT: What quantity of GOLD, paper or physical, has OIL traditionally purchased on an annual basis?

From 1991, appx. 20m/oz./yr., now it is more.

How much paper GOLD is out there ready to be squeezed?

Over 14,000 tons.

Do you think OIL will be able to collect what is owed to them?

It will come outright or thru the increase in value of metal

owned after an oil for gold bid.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:50 - ID#23782)
I have alotted a small % to physical. I hope to
never use it. If I do, it will not be to purchase
dollars. So comex price means less to me than it
did before I traded dollars for gold.
You will never catch me with a put, call, or future.
Here is a diddy to remember.
He who sells what isn't hizzen, very often goes to
Chill out makes sense. G'nite.

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:52 - ID#341214)
grant (aka LGB)
grant: I could be off base here but your line of questioning and the regularity with which you have posted tonight lead me to believe you are LGB.

Anyone concur?


(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:53 - ID#34592)
@ grant & Jaakko
grant, this gets 1/4 and change of the CB gold! Its plenty!

Jaakko, I liked your 22:15 post. I see some "real hard money" in this forum. Most people saw $100+ decline in their investment, and now are worrying for another $20 from the bottom!

"Hard money thinking" mentality. Talk about huge profits ( 3X, 5X ) but worrying about a 5% loss!

No wonder why Karlitto thinks that we all are screwed up in the head...

(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:53 - ID#215379)
best yet
Best explaination of gold and fiat currency yet. Thats why the Bible says you should not charge your brother interest. Biblical money held its value.

Lurker 777
(Sat Jan 10 1998 23:54 - ID#317247)
All- This bear is no record.
Panda do you have historical graphs from 1975 on? I do not have access to long term charts so I got these numbers from Kitco. These are average Gold prices for the months indicated:

Jan 80 $675 to Jun 82 $315 29 mo. - 53%
Feb 83 $492 to Feb 85 $299 25 mo. - 39%
Jan 88 $477 to Sep 89 $362 21 mo. - 24%
Feb 90 $417 to Jan 93 $329 35 mo. - 21%
Feb 96 $400 to Jan 98 $281 24 mo. - 30% still going?