I'll i'm trying to do is play Devils Advocate!

The statement about asians: ( Should of defined which asians, not Asian americans. ) While attending school we studied china and Orient, In the studies we went over the educational system of area. It was standard teaching practice in China especially to demonise the west. They were supposely taught global domination, if this is incorrect then it is the US schools who did the deceiving. Was not trying to make a race play. Merely stating history as I was taught. I wonder what kids are taught in Iraq & Iran about U.S.?

As I stated in preveous posts I was very intrigued in Anothers hypothesis because it seems to play with my line of thinking. THAT IS WHY I QUESTON IT EVEN MORE; because when something may appear as you thought, you pay less attention to the details and ask less questions!


I have not seen an act of generosities, out of family, that are not done without something expected in return. I have and still do such acts but in the on going everyday life I have been beat down to question everything. The level of human selfishness is amazing!

Do not let emotions cloud judgement.

Not trying to people bash, Offend Another, only to question.

Are not statements of:

"All paper assests will be worthless"

"All gold in ground will be taken over by individual govs."

"LMBA will cease to exist."

In Dec they stated once gold below production costs and you have not purchased physical, it is too late because with the delivery time of gold no more physical will be released. ( This is not exact words but how I perceived message? )

Should statements as these go unquestioned.

Are you totally invested in physical CMAX, if not, do you question what is being said?

Merely trying to stimulate debate, and if it has a general opinion here that Anothers posting is credible, and it does take place, soceity as we know will be transformed through blood and war.

I ask again, SHOULD NOT THIS BE QUESTIONED?!

Is anybody out there. ( dsotm )

I presumptuously offer this for the benefit of any newbie gold bugs. I sincerely hope it is useful. Recent posts by a few Kicoites who have been hit hard by going long gold prompted me to take time out from work and write. For maybe 15 years I have been buying a few gold bullion coins and a few non- numismatic silver dollars whenever I had some spare change. The pile doesnt exactly make my house sag on one side but you get the idea. I am very glad I did it. I still do it. A few years back I added natural resource stocks and an occasional cheap call option on gold futures. I am less than ecstatic about these. Although the stocks were up at one point they are starting to make me squirm now. If I sell, I realize a loss, if I hang in there, I might realize a profit someday. I am hanging in there. My call options have gone up and down, mostly down, and usually expire worthless. Luckily I have only lost a few hundred dollars on these. Its been like buying lottery tickets. I suppose my real investments are my house and my small business. In total dollars, my house has been the biggest loser of all. This is the extent of my investing experience, I am not expert on economics or precious metals but I think it qualifies me to suggest the following.

Remember now this is for newbie investors/speculators, traders use your scroll button.

Despite what you read on this forum, and despite the startling, confusing and grim events that are happening all over the world, dont be worried that you will be left on the launch pad when gold rockets to the moon on Monday or Friday or next week. Might happen, but worse things could happen. Its easy to catch the excitement here; its easy to get emotionally swept up and carried away. Keep cool. Dont gamble with borrowed money. OK, OK, gold coins in your hand IS money, but dont trade commodity futures until you have experience with buying call or put options on futures contracts. I dont trade futures at all, only options on futures. Dont sell calls or puts to open a position. Dont risk your house. Dont risk more money than you can afford to lose. I should take my own advice about that.

Do start buying some gold coins. Warning. If you do this, you will probably become a gold bug overnight. Do not let talk of gold confiscation put you off. If you buy a few at a time you will pay only a little more premium than if you buy a lot. I have never bought large quantities through a broker. I am known as Mr. Cash at my local coin shop. I prefer Eagles, Maple Leafs and Kruggerands because one or the other is always available, and I dont have to worry about grading numismatic coins. I bought most of my stocks when prices were much higher. Today, that spells opportunity for you. My natural resource stock broker has a minimum of about $1,500 per order, commission is about $60. You can find a cheaper broker with a lower minimum no doubt; but my theory is you get what you pay for. If that is a relatively small amount for you, then by all means, now is a good time to go for it. If you can afford it, back up your truck to the loading dock and fill it up. But here is the reason I write: If its your rent money, if its your mortgage payment, FORGET IT. Bet on yourself instead. Buy some silver dollars. Start your own business. You may have to work 18 hours a day at first but dont quit your regular job until your new business gets off the ground. I am a high school graduate only. If I can do it, you can do it. You will be investing discretionary income soon enough if you do this.

One last thing. When I first met my girl friend seven years ago, I took her out to a movie. What a low down dirty trick. She loves going out to movies. I didnt take her to a movie again for years. Too expensive, I hate crowds, just as good on tape. What bull puckey. She had to go with her daughter or with friends. All that is changed. I quit my regular job. I will take her out to lots of movies. We just saw Tomorrow Never Dies on Oris recommendation. No crowds at the matinee. What absolute fun. Thanks Oris!

I havent been plinking in years. That is going to change too.

BTW gold mixed with vodka = aphrodisiac.

If any gold bugs think this is bad advice you will hear about it right away. Ignore 99 et. al.

Good luck!

Lurker, Try a chat room. It's going crazy in there

Bart ( KITCO ) - My sincere apologies for any emotional outbreaks on my part THIS IS A WORLD CLASS PAGE. Happy Trails

Kicoites = Kitcoites

How do you get access?

FT
MONDAY JANUARY 12 1998
By Kenneth Gooding in London

US lawyers are preparing to launch a class action suit alleging that the silver
market is being manipulated to drive prices higher, according to Martin
Armstrong, director of Princeton Economics Institute and a commodity fund
manager.

Mr Armstrong said he had been asked by the lawyers to act as an expert
witness for the plaintiffs, but had not yet agreed to do so. However, he did believe someone - he did not know who - was attempting to manipulate the silver market.

Worries about a potential law suit, or a Commodities Futures Trading
Commission investigation, caused a wave of selling of silver by US funds at the end of last week. The price fell by 5 per cent on Thursday and by another 1 per cent on Friday to close in London at $5.69 a troy ounce. In December silver touched an eight- year high of $6.19. Silver is mainly used in photographic materials, jewellery and silverware and a variety of electronic and electrical applications.

The Hunt brothers attempted to corner the silver market in 1979- 80, forcing the metal's price up from $6 an ounce to $50 an ounce in less than a year. The attempt failed in early 1980 and prices collapsed, handing the brothers a $1bn loss.

Asked whether the CFTC was investigating silver market activity, an official said it never commented on such rumours.

Jeffrey Christian, managing director of the New York- based CPM
consultancy group, said his inquiries indicated a CFTC probe was unlikely. "The opinions behind the law suit seem incredibly ill- informed," Mr Christian added. "There are no substantive grounds for these allegations." Nevertheless, suggestions that something untoward was happening in the silver market surfaced some months ago. In November Ted Arnold, metals specialist at the Merrill Lynch group, suggested that a syndicate including US investment funds and two bullion banks were buying up silver in the hope of pushing the price up to $8 or $9 an ounce.

"The syndicate already controls a large quantity of silver which has driven New York commodity market stocks to a 12- year low," Mr Arnold said. "We think the consortium is still prepared to throw in much more money to push prices higher over time. But against that, the fundamentals on silver supply continue to turn bearish."

Mr Armstrong said some in the industry believed about $3bn had been put
into the scheme so far. He said he had been asked by the law firm mounting the suit not to reveal its identity.

..

Lots of talk about various types of coins. My simple question is this:

If one had to choose a bullion coin, why would he want to buy one with copper in it, ie. Kruggerand, Eagle or others. Why not the Maple, pure and real. After all, 0.9999 fine should be better than 90% gold.

Any intelligent comments?

Are you talkin to me?
I agree with evertthing you said,except in my case I am putting some Eagles on my "card". The way I figure it all I stand to lose is some interest
( worst case ) . Im also considering "borrowing" half of the 401Kto buy coin and also to insulate it from the sliding equity market.
I've got a small machine shop that will soon spring me from my regular job ( fingers crossed ) .
I'm also fortunate enough to have a shooting range out my front door,"plinking is a favorite pasttime

about becoming a Goldbug overnight.Almost alarming the allure of the yellow stuff.

A small machine shop? I am jealous. I am looking for a small milling machine that I can use in my garage. Have you checked out
http://www5.electriciti.com/sherline/faq.htm
Any experience with Sherline Tools?
Good luck.

You are good man, Sam.

refer, Click green arrow at top of AOL menu. Takes you to
stocks and potfolios. Click on Market News Center. then
click on Market News Chat.

The U.S. stamps out LGB's, like pieces and parts in a tool and die shop, as the preferred prototype for the ruling iconoclast. One day LGB's must either change their tune dramatically or face an unkind fate. And, they WILL change their tune. They only proffer their propaganda while the wind is at their back, otherwise wilting like lilies at even the hint of foul weather.

The traitoress Tories of U.S. colonial days and the LGB's of our current day are one in the same.

On the preferred subject: Must pick up a little more Delta Gold this week. Heck of an opportunity. Won't even mind holding it for a while.

Your statement "almost alarming the allure of the yellow stuff" gives to non goldbugs lots of amunition to call the goldbugs "insane". One should not fall in love with the yellow metal ( although many do ) and should be regarded as an investment vehicle.

I just had some fun scaring some nervous equity investors. Hehehe. I sent them the The Privateers gold pages.

I feel like a Bizzaro LGB. You have to read Superman comics to understand.

Dr. J

Im fortunate enough to have a subscription to "Home Shop Machinist",an EXELLENT quarterly magazine .Everything I've read about Sherline tools is they're top notch ( as long as you realize they're very small and therefore have their limitations ) Are you a modelist? Gunsmith?What?

even though you have Indonesia and South Korea in the positive ALL of Asia is sinking. Remember the plan was to keep the currency crisis from spreading. Well, it didn't work. The cat is out of the bag and as you can see from the table below. Hong Kong, Singapore, ... are head and shoulders a bigger problem than Indonesia and South Korea. It's time you call home and tell Al, Rubin, and Bill that they better batten down the hatches because they have HELL TO PAY!


Australia All Ordinaries ^AORD 12:05AM 2542.4 - 60.7 - 2.33%
China Shanghai Composite ^SSEC 12:40AM 1239.576 - 0.325 - 0.03%
Hong Kong Hang Seng ^HSI 11:30PM 7909.13 - 985.51 - 11.08%
India BSE 30 ^BSESN 12:40AM 3440.14 - 90.06 - 2.55%
Indonesia Jakarta Composite ^JKSE 12:00AM 351.761 +8.791 +2.56%
Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 12:40AM 14682.02 - 313.08 - 2.09%
Malaysia KLSE Composite ^KLSE 11:31PM 474.74 - 16.86 - 3.43%
New Zealand NZSE 40 ^NZ40 10:03PM 2212.83 - 56.45 - 2.49%
Pakistan Karachi 100 ^KSE 12:40AM 1526.30 - 46.48 - 2.96%
Philippines PSE Composite ^PSI 11:09PM 1532.97 +14.97 +0.99%
Singapore Straits Times ^SS1 11:31PM 1071.66 - 104.69 - 8.90%
South Korea Seoul Composite ^KS11 12:39AM 459.64 +18.86 +4.28%
Sri Lanka All Share ^CSE Jan 9 705.00 +3.70 +0.53%
Taiwan Taiwan Weighted ^TWII 11:04PM 7375.14 - 362.06 - 4.68%
Thailand SET ^SETI 12:31AM 342.80 - 6.87 - 1.96%

If the Dow drops 11% like Hong Kong tonight, it will end at 6,730 with a 830 point drop tomorrow.

It is comments like this that soften them up in the stock investor chat rooms. Then they are receptive to the gold message.

Dr. J

You are a good and WISE man ( :- ) )

This forum needs balance, and not insults to people who bring a different view point to investments. LGB has made a clear point which is "He is considering in getting into the gold market". Idiots like me got into the the gold equities market and are losing big. LGB is smart and lets give him credit to the fact that he jumped out of the stock market.

Now on his theoretical views, I have no comment. However, I respect people who know how to make a buck, and so far he has.

At what % does the market explainers move from a correction describtion to one of a crash?

Electricity is the scarce resource here these days. "D" batteries are worth their weight in gold. So is wax which makes it the better value.

We got the prolonged power failure previously requested and so I don't know how timely our updates will be for the next 24 hours.

Just to let you know....

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts:
Five Year Chart http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpmlt.htm
120 market days Chart http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm120.htm
30 market days Chart http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm30.htm
10 days Hourly Chart http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

I will be doing short run manufacturing of my own specialized product for scientists. BTW my Browning SS has a gold plated trigger. ( We will get complaints about getting off subject. )

wouldnt leave home without it
I try not to get all cought up in the "investment concept".I see alot of folks spend what I consider too much time and energy managing thier "investments" while their time on this planet slips away.
The time Ive spent in the last few weeks, playing with the gold,watching the markets,discussions here and with my friends,I've found most enjoyable.Hell the weather's been rotton anyway.
Not one single person I showed my Eagles to had ever seen a gold coin before.Niether had I before I bought my first batch.
I'm gonna make a tidy sum with these coins,and I'm not through yet,so insane or not,when those non- goldbugs are cryin,this goldbug's gonna be laughin.We'll see who's insane.

For Haggis

Your resume/excellent of 1st/2nd boer war excellent.

Would have been nice if you had included anecdotal

info on British invention of "concentration camp"

first used against Boers ( and later made famous by Nazis ) .

Also touchy subject of propaganda role played by

Church of England which has only lately subsided since

Boers now viewed as totally destroyed.

A brief mention of the outstanding Boer marksmanship

would have added a little flavour. The Brits had never

encountered anything like it before.

Cmax: Thank you for your 20:54 to me. If COMEX prices are rigidly linked to physical gold prices, undistorted by derivatives trading, then there is no way for ANOTHER to be correct that gold could rise hundreds of dollars in a day or to. That's why I have kept asking this question. D.A. has also essentially said the same thing you said.
Since D.A. had made such a convincing argument that physical gold is still being traded at high volume on the COMEX, I had raised the second possibility that a derivatives trader with very deep pockets could corner the gold market, given that the CB's are now much less interested in selling gold.
I think that is highly unlikely as well - - and I gather so do you. So again, we conclude that ANOTHER's dire prediction may not come to fruition. But - - a run on the dollar, or an international currency crisis causing gold to rise fairly rapidly - - that is "another" matter altogether.
I enjoy ANOTHER's posts - - although they are cryptic. The read is worth it for the intellectual exercise alone. I just wish he/she would be more direct, and not so conspiratorial, as if he/she is only being allowed to tell us certain things, and not others. His/her recommedations to buy the physical gold have been better that many other Kitco recommendations.

First Pacific to sell off $2bn of assets
First Pacific, the Hong Kong- based business group and one of Asia's largest conglomerates, announced a $2bn asset- disposal programme to bolster its balance sheet and restore investor confidence. The company has seen its shares plunge 43 per cent this year in the wake of the regional economic crisis.

Markets quities:
Positive data against Asian concerns
This week will see New York investors and traders weigh positive US
economic data against continuing concerns about the crisis in Asian markets and worries about the strength of US company earnings in the first meaningful week of the fourth- quarter corporate reporting season. Full story, Back to top

Focus on economic data
To the extent that the UK market can think about anything other than Asia
( especially after Peregrine's difficulties were revealed on Friday ) , the focus will be on a batch of domestic economic data this week. Full story, Back to top

Another nervous week
Japan's stock market could be heading for another nervous week after the
Nikkei index closed on Friday at 14,995.10 - close to its two- year low and below the key 15,000 level. Full story, Back to top

Asia dampens confidence
Attention will be focused on Asia again this week after concern over
Indonesia's financial deterioration damped the returning confidence in
European markets.Germany's DAX blue- chip index faltered on Friday to lose
55.89 points for a close of 4,237.75; this left it 3 per cent down on the week.

Indonesia looks to IMF
Indonesia's stock market fell to record lows last week, amid signs that even a revival of a government reform package agreed with the International Monetary Fund would do little to solve the private debt crisis that has rocked the country. Full story, Back to top

International capital markets: Currencies and money:
US, IMF visits keep focus on east Asia
Visits by US and International Monetary Fund officials to Indonesia this week will keep the market's focus firmly on the currencies of east Asia. At the forefront is the Indonesian rupiah, which was just six months ago trading at Rp2,400 against the US dollar. Over the weekend - having made a slight recovery at the end of last week - the rupiah reached about Rp9,600. Full story, Back to top

http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/ftbrief.htm

The Afrikaners that I know, in the Cape, Free State and SW are good, down to earth people. You will of course get variations on the theme. It is a pity that some of the wealth generated was not incrementally put back into Coloured and Black advancement over the years.

Aye, Haggis

By STEPHEN COPLAN
NEW YORK - - While investors have fled gold mining stocks, leaving them battered and near historic lows, private investment in gold, particularly when the yellow metal hit its lowest point in 18 years recently, has surged.

http://www.amm.com/inside/briefs.htm
( subscription required ) : (

does go up hundreds next week? Huge moves like that seem a little scary.Could there be some sorta backlash effect?

Navy definition of a real pal: goes into town, buys two BJs, brings one back for you. Sam ain't the only one going off subject. I'll behave in the future. - - slingin' it

AN EXAMPLE OF BRITISH/SOUTH AFRICAN INVESTMENT IN THE USA

"The Oppenheimers of South Africa are much bigger "heavy- weights" than the Rockefellers. For instance, in 1981 Harry Oppenheimer, chairman of the giant Anglo American Corporation that controls gold and diamond mining, sales and distribution in the world, stated that he was about to launch into the North American banking market. Oppenheimer promptly in- vested $10 billion in a specially created vehicle for the purpose
of buying into big banks in the U.S., among which was Citicorp. Oppenheimer's investment vehicle was called Minorco, which set up shop in Bermuda, a British royal family preserve. On the board of Minorco was to be found Walter Wriston of Citicorp and Robert Clare, its chief counsel.

The only other company to rival Oppenheimer in the field of precious metals and minerals was Consolidated Gold Fields of South Africa, but Oppenheimer took control of it with a 28% stake the largest single stockholder. Thus gold, diamonds, platinum, titanium, tantalite, copper, iron ore, uranium and 52 other metals and minerals, many of them of
absolutely vital strategic value to United States, passed into the hands of British interests.

Thus was the vision of one of the earlier South African members, Cecil John Rhodes, fully realized.

LGB2 and KARLITO, this is yet another example of why - GOLD IS NOT DEAD !

Rule Britannia...................

Aye, Haggis

Any info on numbers?

Hello Sam
I just read an add for a table top mill for $700
and lathe $600
209- 785- 3448
Good luck
Nicodemus
PS
I too realy benafit from having a small
Machine shop

Sorry, I don't have a password : (

Prices are bound to drop,There's alot of fine machine tools from Europe and Asia,methinks there will be a surplus soon.

At 11 15.23 I posted an interview of Albert Freidberg, who is considered by his peers to be one of the canniest commodities analysts ( specializing in currencies ) extant. Having just scrolled through all the postings since then I only noticed 1 oblique reference by slinshot @ 1942 to the interview. What I did notice was many exchanges of inanities- - football scores etc, some mystical bs, but very little of substance. Puetz of course posted more of his totally discredited nonsense, but made no reference to Freidbergs latest analysis.

I see Gold is 2- 7- 8. Hey, where's the BIS with all them buyers? Been trying to think of an analogy. This market has been like driving on a one- way street. I'm damn sure I'm going in the direction the arrow is pointing. It's just that all them other idiots running over me don't seem to see the ARROW! ( not bad, eh cherokee? )

I was in Engineering, we were loners for the most part, however the twidgets were for the most part the best of pals.

Poorboys.........
I would tend to think that the most appropriate way to get you view point across would be to suggest that "they have lost their way". My last two postings of why "GOLD IS NOT DEAD" attempts to show that Old European Money is at serious work, they have got serious funding.

The best way to look at itis - Britain and the US are as one.

LGB2.......
Mate, hows the Football going? It's HOT today in Kalgoorlie, 43 deg C.

Aye, Haggis

For Haggis

A few months ago, near Kraaifontein ( between Paarl and Capetown ) ,

I passed a white squatter camp. It is full of Afrikaans speakers.

There are others.

Markets are dying in asia and what does CNN report at 10:45

Pacific. Why Money Market Funds are a good investment !!!

Glad to see those folks at CNN are on top of things.

Biggest business story IGNORED makes me angry that the

B@% tards are trying to bury it! TIME FOR GOLD NOT TIME

WARNER! Outraged as usual but it doesn't get me anywhere.

saw post re: lawyers to sue over silver market manipulation.
what about japanese stock and U.S. government market manipulation ?
or CB gold market manipulation ?
what hypocrisy !!

If Indonesia's debt is only $40 billion and U.S. debt is
$5+ TRILLION, what is the big deal ? Isn't there a thousand
billion in each trillion ?

US could assume and refinance all debt in east asia for less
than another $trillion.

Monday January 12, 12:48 am Eastern Time

HK's Hang Seng sink to end morning below 8,000

HONG KONG, Jan 12 ( Reuters ) - Hong Kong shares were hammered down to end Monday morning sharply lower following a rise in prime
lending rates on Friday and the news that Peregrine Investments Holdings Ltd ( OTC BB:PGIQY - news; 0090.HK ) may be heading for liquidation.

The Hang Seng Index sank 985.51 points, or 11.08 percent, to end at a session low of 7,909.13, its lowest level since March 1995.

The Hang Seng Index has lost more than half its value since it reached its highest level of 16,820.31 on August 7, 1997.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980112/hk_s_hang__1.html

Monday January 12, 1:04 am Eastern Time

SKorea govt to guarantee $15 bln in foreign loans

SEOUL, Jan 12 ( Reuters ) - South Korea will seek parliamentary approval to guarantee $15 billion in foreign loans borrowed by private- sector
financial institutions, the finance ministry said on Monday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980112/skorea_gov_1.html

Monday January 12, 12:56 am Eastern Time

Hashimoto, Kohl to speak with Indonesia's Suharto

JAKARTA, Jan 12 ( Reuters ) - The leaders of Japan and Germany will speak with Indonesian President Suharto on Monday, State Secretary
Murdiono said.

Murdiono did not say what Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto and German Chancellor Helmut Kohl were likely to discuss with Suharto,
but it was expected they would focus on Indonesia's financial crisis.

``It is scheduled that Japan's prime minister will speak with President Suharto at 0700 GMT. Also, at 0900 GMT it is scheduled that the German
chancellor will speak with the president,'' Murdiono told reporters.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980112/indonesia__2.html

Monday January 12, 12:53 am Eastern Time

Japan household spending stalling- - govt

TOKYO, Jan 12 ( Reuters ) - Japan's household spending is stalling, reflecting a decline in earnings, a Management and Coordination Agency official
told reporters on Monday.

``Japan's employment conditions, such as a decline in individuals' earnings due to fewer overtime claims, were reflected in the weaker household
spending,'' the official said.

Earlier, the agency released data showing that spending by Japanese households in November fell 2.1 percent in real terms from a year earlier to an
average of 309,236 yen per household.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980112/japan_hous_1.html

Monday January 12, 12:51 am Eastern Time

BOJ says to keep current ODR despite weak economy
``In theory, we should think about lowering the official discount rate as the economy is becoming worse. But we can't actually do that, so we will
maintain the current condition,'' he said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980112/boj_says_t_1.html

Private economists say Japan needs bolder corporate and personal income tax cuts, prompt passage of financial stabilisation measures and more
drastic deregulation to prevent Japan from adding to Asian woes and sparking a crisis.

Monday January 12, 12:42 am Eastern Time

Japan must cure own economic ills to help Asia

``Japan is about one- fifth of the global economy so the Japanese economy sliding into recession obviously has a direct impact on global growth,'' said
Jesper Koll, chief economist at J.P. Morgan in Tokyo.

``The second concern is that Japan is the world's largest supplier of savings, and if a banking crisis in Japan absorbs those savings, that spells bad
news for the globe,'' he said.

On Monday, Hashimoto told a new session of parliament that he would never let Japan trigger a global depression. He said in a speech that there had
been no change in Japan's need for fiscal reform, but added that it must be flexible in adapting to financial conditions and the international economic
picture.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980112/asia_japan_1.html

A.Goose comments:
Hashimoto has bought the program hook, line and sinker. Looks like the U.S. has convinced the world that Asia cause this problem and that Japan is going to be the fall guy. Japan keeps saying they won't let this happen, but the truth is they can't stop it alone. The U.S. and Europe aren't going to help him. If Japan doesn't realise they have been set up soon, they are going to lose everything.

Another, you made a hard rock call about the price of gold. I expect you to post soon discussing why the $280 price is NOT holding. gc8g 278.40. If you are real, you must be realistic.

This is my first post and perhaps the best opportunity to thank those that are sincerely trying to help others.

JTF: "His/her recommedations to buy the physical gold have been better that many other Kitco recommendations."

The Big Trader/Another posts began, if memory serves, at about POG $375 +/- . ...... "Big money buying at $370." ......."Market will lock and trade no more". .... etc and etc.

Like you, I find them fascinating to read but it has been over a year and only carnage is found in their wake. ...... res ipsa loquitur.

In your 11 Jan 5:47 post you state that gold is where it's at because of supply and demand. In actual fact, the price of everything is determined by supply and demand. This is axiomatic. The point I was trying to make is that the demand for gold and the demand for financial assets are cyclical ( at least they have been throughout the history of the world up to now ) therefore the fact that gold is now trading at 1979 levels is a pretty good indicator that we are near a bottom.
Cheers, sas

your plans to make stuff for scientists,and the subject of machine tools is certainly related strongly to the economy and hence Gold
You can get rich in your own machine shop ( theres alot of standin and alot af long hours ) .

The Brits aren't too bad once you get to know them ?

Poms are a bit of an acquired taste.

And the Scots, wha's like us!

Checked the map of your area and saw a lot of lakes around. What is fishing like there?

To all

Gold/silver ratio now over 50 - Hmmmmm

G'Day,

Lakes? Salt lakes, yes.

Here in Kalgoorlie it's hot, it's goddam hot, it's 43 deg C during the day, and 30- 35 deg C at nite. It's hot!!!!!!!!!

If you are silly enough to go walk about in this heat, you will de- hydrate and die within 5 hours!

Salt lakes! No fish..............

Aye, Haggis

Who has historical data for : US$ Au/Ag ration, and US$ Oil/Au ratio?

sure that makes everyone feel secure. Boys the game is up look around Asia.

Monday January 12, 1:24 am Eastern Time

Jakarta stocks sustains gains at midsession


Another broker said the rise in the index was due more to active buying by state- owned securities houses of key stocks, including market
heavyweight Telkom ( TLKM.JK ) , than any improved sentiment because of the IMF visit.

``I think the government support through Telkom and other blue chips played more of a role than the IMF talks,'' he said.

Brokers said other blue chips which contributed to the rise were mostly state- controlled stocks such as Indosat ( ISAT.JK ) , Semen Gresik
( SMGR.JK ) and Bank Negara Indonesia ( BBNI.JK ) .

With great regret I see that some continue to use insulting words, inappropriate to this type of forum, and in particular for Puetz. You owe him an apology.

Earl: I did not know ANOTHER's recommendations went that far back - - was gold ever more than $280/oz? I'm still in shock - - and it may go even lower tomorrow if the equity markets twitch. What I should have said is that I responded by buying pre- 1933 gold coins when he/she said buy physical - - and they have gone up steadily! You should have seen me yesterday haggling with the gold coin dealer about how the price of gold was going down, not up! He knew it was $280. Didn't help one bit - - still paid $600 for a 1904 MS63 $20 Liberty! It really feels odd that the two gold coins I bought in 1993 cost less than they do now - - and gold is over $50 cheaper than the 1993 bottom.

Aye Haggis

Scots and Brits are fine. In my view however, there is

no such thing as a good country. My problem is that several

English speaking countries would have you BELIEVE that they

are very GOOD. I tend to choke on this.

The volume of stock moving from strong hands to weak hands will accelerate tommorow and the poor will be robbed by the rich for the second time in 69 years. Buy on dips! Average down for long term gains! Donot panic! Donot worry about the crisis developing in outflows! If you own any kind of equity fund my suggestion is SELL WHILE YOU STILL CAN!

What happens nest week should be interesting - - either the baby boomers will have money to burn and prop up the market, or the pros will sell when the less- than- stellar earnings reports come out.
Keep your powder dry!

Monday January 12, 1:44 am Eastern Time

Asian markets mood bleak as U.S. visits Jakarta

By Sarah Davison

HONG KONG, Jan 12 ( Reuters ) - Asian markets were stuck in crisis on Monday despite soothing words from U.S. officials visiting Jakarta for
high- level meetings that spurred hopes of a solution to economic chaos in Indonesia.

``It's horrendous, just horrendous,'' said one head trader at a major brokerage, referring to sentiment throughout the region.

Major stock markets in Hong Kong, Tokyo and Sydney were all weaker, while the yen fell against the U.S. dollar and the Thai baht hit fresh record
lows.

The mood remained bleak elsewhere in the region.

Major stock markets in Hong Kong, Tokyo and Sydney were weak, with an 11- percent slide in Hong Kong below the critical 8,000 barrier,
prompting further fears of a spread of the Asian contagion to the region's healthiest economies.

The Hong Kong dollar peg to the U.S. dollar remained firm, but currency forwards widened and interest rates soared in another sign of the spread of
the U.S. dollar hedging that has crushed currencies throughout the region.

Taipei fell victim to the trouble in Hong Kong, with the main stock index down 4.68 percent to 7,375.14.

Singapore stocks were also off by more than 100 points or nearly nine percent to 1,071.66 at 0445 GMT while the Singapore dollar continued to
ease, reaching 1.7855/05 against 1.7690/7740 late on Friday. But overnight rates fell, indicating greater calm.

Tokyo stocks were off 2.21 percent at 14,664.44 on continued speculation about government steps to boost the economy.

The Thai baht hit fresh record lows of 55 to the U.S. dollar, with players unimpressed by central bank measures to curb speculation. The Malaysian
ringgit was also weaker, helping to depress the main stock index by 3.43 percent to 474.74.

One thing I find particularly funny in all this calamity is, Asian govs. know that one must cut taxes to get the economy going, wonder why the Democrats can't figure this out!

India - 3.01% , Pakistan - 3.01% , Japan - 2.21% , Thailand - 1.96%

Why is Singapore getting hammered?

... and where are the rich outting their money now? Surely not in cash. The money must be going some place and this is my puzzle, seeing all stock markets and commodities down. Bonds will crash too. So the question is where that money is going. The rich are the market movers but no market is going up. Something is strange here.

rich cash must be going into bonds, money market and treasury bills in U.S. and European currencies

Something was bothering me all the time
about ANOTHER's story... What it was?
I could not see what it was. The story
is VERY interesting, just VERY interesting...
may be too interesting...Oil for gold...
The whole world is on the edge? Some logic
is there, but the scale of events is too huge...
Good writing, good scenario for what?
May be for a next James Bond movie?

May be I am wrong, but why I see well shaved face of 007
between the lines? O.K., I know, too much vodka
and too many movies..., still reminds me something...

I'll figure it all out tomorrow...good night.

... this implies deflation. Rich money will not risk capital erosion from inflation. Therefore should we expect a stronger dollar? This will kill gold further. After all, earlier discussions favor a weaker dollar for a significant gold move. I am getting confused.

The "U. S. Officials" are wasting their time trying to smooth the
Asian markets. An old prof I had long ago said in the short run
politics rules, in the long run, economics rules. Even Russia
found that out. The house of cards is truly falling and soon
even our friend LGB will have to see it. Ingotwetrust.

money market funds,the automated system wouldnt let me.Said "I had transactions in progress that prevented me" from doing it
SHIT

Going to Florida for a week, ( business and pleasure ) .

grant & Nicodemus-

Thanks for your responses. My father is a retired mechanical engineer. Actually not so retired because I keep him real busy. He found a milling machine locally, I can go get it in my battered old Datsun pickup. Anybody that loves machine shops as much as gold is OK by me. If either of you will be going through Camarillo in golden, sunny, southern California let me know. I will give you my email address then.

I believe that all commodities will drop in value until the debt crisis sorts itself out. However gold and silver should drop less than other commodities because very few mines can make a profit on sub $280 gold. If other metals like copper, lead and zinc drop it price it those mines become less profitable and byproduct silver production will drop. The only short term boost that I can see for gold is the U.S. drops interest rates. I don't see this happening until Americans panic because of a huge drop in the Dow Jones however this would also cause a flight into other currencies probably European. I wouldn't worry about gold and silver going much lower. Once both Europeans and Americans suffer unemployment via the Asian effect on their exports they will drop interest rates to stimulate their economies and gold/silver will rise in value. This could take 3 months to a year. I'd bet 3 to 6 months.

testing?

Seeing the chat through bleary eyes.
Must have been the "depthcharges."
Or the Bundy royal liquor @ 4am.
What a BBQ in the tropics of Cairns.

Tolerant put some Drambui in the beer for great cheer.

Amazing reading back 24hrs with a hangover and trying to follow the threads.
This place is a jewel and full of gems.

Bart's got my vote for the year.
- - - - - - Just cause he let me back in the door.- - - - - -

But the site's just got to be the best due to the variety of input.
- - All you serious posters with poignant twists- - - -
Make me grin from ear to ear.
- - Makes this site just the best- - -

- - - - - - - - THANKS BART- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

My friend, you surely are not surprised the media is not giving us the facts on SE Asia instead of their spin? Even our 90% liberal media in the U.S. will soon have to face reality and report what is happening in our economic world. ( Excuse me, I meant our world of debt and derivitives. ) Will Keyenes be able to save us this time like he didn't last time? It took war to bring us out of economic chaos. Probably what will happen again.

Ive got a Beaver ( English circa 62 ) milling machine
10x52" table
power x
traveldials
vernier glass scale
Got it used,good shape one owner,for$ 3200.Paid for itself in 3 months
( with a little help from my afternoons and weekends ) Been buyin my gold ever since.
Gold's gonna go up,big,soon,and fast.
My dad's also a retired Mech.Eng.

What is going on in your part of the world? How are you doing?

Nobody has responded to your backlash post yet. If gold went up by hundreds next week I wouldn't be worried about backlash, I would be very happy. I would immediately sell a little bit of my gold. If gold went up a few hundred the following week I would sell a little more of my gold etc. If gold went down a few hundred down the week after that I would buy some back. Buy low, sell high, I think some rich guy said that.

Central bankers of G10 met in Basle, Switzerland this weekend. No guessing what they agreed to do with the gold price during this time of crisis. What is interesting is that the Friday before the October mini- crash the Swiss central bank issued a statement to drive the gold price down - thus averting an all- out crash at the expense of goldbugs. The decision to support the price at $278 shows deeping concerns about deflation and the realisation that a declining gold price is dangerous i.e. their reserves loose value. What the markets still fails to realise is that in order to avoid a 1929 style depression, the US will be forced to print mountains of money and feed that into the banking system, effectively buying up bad assets on the tax- payers behalf. Investors having lost confidence in paper assets will most likely turn to precious metals and commodities. This is the softest landing the CB's can hope for. I believe a deflationary depression will be avoided at all costs. Given the choice of inflation or deflation, the central bankers will choose inflation anyday. At least in this scenario the public and business "think" they are earning more each year, even if they somehow suspect they are getting ripped off.

but for guys like me who perhaps don't pay as much attention as they should to the global situation,it buys us precious time to get our schtick together.For once the Left has done me a favor.

Watch how Europe will go down now

Vodka is slowing me down. Will have to quit for the night very soon. I am jealous of your Beaver and the view out your front door, I forgot to mention that before.

In the TA world, a bear market is when the DOW JONES is below it's 200 day moving average.
Below are the last 4 days this happened:
........................................
DAY 1.....Friday Jan 9, 1998 the DOW JONES closed below it's 200 DMA
...........................................................................
In 1997 there were only two days where the Dow JONES closed below it's 200 DMA
DAY 2.........Oct 27, 1997
DAY 3.........Oct 30, 1997
.....................................................
In 1996, 1995 there were no days !
.......................................................
DAY 4.........Dec24, 1994
..........................................................................
Hopefully the DOW JONES will not spend too many days below it's 200 DMA.
Or TAer's will have to call it a ..........BEAR MARKET !!!!!!!

I dont recall the market when gold last spiked over 800/oz,I was too young and not paying attention.I wonder how the present situation compares.

There are a variety of brilliant minds who write constantly on this forum...erudite and compelling theses. Moreover, they are SCARY EVALUATIONS OF THE EQUITIES/BOND MARKETS AND THE FUTURE THAT AWAITS THEM.

Unfortunately, the central problem with the Kitco forum is that these various brilliant analyses never get disseminated to the mainstream media or the average mutual fund investor.

CHANGE THE PERCEPTION! Unfortunately, by keeping the pro- gold message limited to the Kitco forum, the perception remains the same in the world at large.

However, people like THE MISSING LINK are invading the nation's chat rooms and other mainstream sites, spreading the gold message in its most compelling form.

It is in the interests of gold investors to continue to disseminate the message of gold's value ( and, of course its corollary: equities and bonds instability ) into other mainstream media.

These types of proactive measures are necessary to counter the anti- gold rant of The New Paradigm.

CHANGE THE PERCEPTION!

Regards to your father. I didn't always see eye to eye with my Dad. Now I know these guys are the real underground gold. I am mining him now.

Local Market goes down!!! http://www.abc.net.au/news/98/01/12/980112_24.htm

Austria - 2.52% , Finland - 2.44% , Netherlands - 2.78% , Turkey - 5.26%

Goodnite all. Hope you survive this mess!

SOMETHING must be getting ready to happen in the PMs when such a ridiculous rumor like this is put out. First even if someone were accumulating physical silver you would have to prove, under the Commodity Exchange Act, that their intent for buying the silver was only to effect price and not for investment purposes. This is almost impossible to prove and is the reason Plaintiffs almost never prevail in such cases. The Hunts involved a completely different situation as they tried to corner Comex Futures and not the physical metal. They were nailed because they exceeded exchange position limits by placing futures contracts in the names of relatives ( obvious fraud ) . Finally if the metal has been moved overseas there may be problems of proof and jurisdiction. There is nothing illegal about accumulating alot of silver if you think it is a good investment!! The lease rate for one month silver is 7.1% /obviously has not scared the investors ( if there are any ) by what would be a loser lawsuit. Buy all ya can while its on sale!!

JIN ( testing? )

_________________


JIN..halloo? halloo?



Federal debt up 25% in 1997 in gold terms...

The TA and most mutual funds for that matter do follow this. The rule is to sell if it is violated for 5 days in a row. This suggests that they may not sell for a few more days or not at all if the market recovers.

If they do sell, it will get ugly because the repdemptions will start to send the spiral from poitive to negative. Value on the SNP on a historic basis with ROE of 7% over the risk free rate is below 400.

I like your posts Sharefin.

Neil 03:17

G'day, I do not have the Swiss valuations to hand, someone else will post them, but I believe the Swiss CB carries gold at about the same level as the IMF carries it in its books, US $35.00 per oz. It is too late for me to check my refs.

It is something that has puzzled me. Can this IMF gold stash not be "revalued" at a stroke of a blue pen and therefore increase capital:debt ratios? Or is that just another dumb fundamental analytical question?


Gee Bart, I had no idea that the kitco commando team would take me so seriously, black out indeed! But, they are planning a number on Fort Knix* and need the practice. My 'umble apologies for uttering such heresy.

aurabondA_TEAM@tor

*Knix 'cos its got no gold that ain't been loaned out;

Cool.

Austria - 2.79% , Finland - 3.02% , Greece - 2.80% , Netherlands - 2.92% , Turkey - 5.01% , UK - 2.61%

Bedtime!

There are no limits on the amount of physical silver one can buy, which unlike the Hunts, is where the buying is going on as indicated by falling stocks and rising lease rates.There are limits on futures contracts and it is obvious that someone used the lawsuit rumor to raid the market. My guess is Merrill is the Plaintiff and guess what, no suit will ever be brought. What is shocking is that Ted Arnold would even refer to a syndicate accumulating PHYSICAL silver as being illegal as it would not be or would be almost impossible to prove. Ted needs to consult Merrill's legal department or if he did, Merrill needs to restructure its legal dept.

The interest rate level should be totally irrelevant to the price of gold at this point. If the market performs its proper function as a future indicator, then price of gold should immediately soar through the roof. Only sustained CB intervention can preclude this. However, when the Hong Kong dollar is de- pegged ( as it must be at some point ) , then I think there is a tremendous chance that the Chinese will buy gold wherever they can find it.

As long as people have to dump assets to cover their debts gold and silver will drop in price unless the price is so low that mine production drops to balance the jewellery dumping ( e.g. 17 tons of Korean jewellery )

What is CB?

Central Banks - and welcome new person & lover of Gold !!!

I remember ~$800 gold. I was young. Not enough money to buy even one Kruggerand at $800 gold thank goodness. But it was what got me started I think. Those high prices didn't last too long as I recall. At some point I started buying ten oz silver bars and one ounce silver rounds whenever I had a few extra dollars, not often. That is all I could afford. Not sure how todays situation compares. I believe that gold will go up and down in the future. If it goes up enough since you bought, it's a selling opportunity, if it goes down enough since you sold, it's a buying opportunity. Goldbugs have not had a lot of selling opportunites in recent times. That's why it's so hard for long time goldbugs. I am OK. I can wait. Just hope none of my stocks goes belly up. Good night. Good luck. Go gold.

KO, I think if you are thinking that the Chinese will respond in identical fashion to the Koreans, then you simply do not know many Chinese. Remember, the Koreans only chose to relinquish gold assets at the urging of their government...a government infamous throughout Asia as the most inept financial managers in the world and who are proving this fact in their most recent message, namely "Sell dollars low...buy dollars high!"

The Chinese will view any de- pegging of the HK dollar as a de facto collapse in the value of the American dollar. They see the two currencies as being essentially synonymous.

Methinks the ridiculously low valuation of gold by many Western nations with large reserves is firstly a way of trying to convince the markets that they don't actually think gold is worth much and that investors should rather buy up government debt. Secondly if they raised the value of their gold they may be deemed to be telling the markets their currency is worth less as their currenies are still underpinned by gold some nebulous psychological sort of way. Thirdly keeping gold on the books at such a low value allows them to generate good looking returns when lending it out at the market rate at 2 or 3% .

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980112/world/index.html
The article on Peregrine is worth a read.

Is gold valued at $US price in CB reserve calculations for
BIS purposes ? Or at arbitrary other valuation ?
If at $US, then the campaign to push down gold price to defend dollar
as the "peg" for other currencies is a campaign against CB's that
hold gold as chief asset in reserves.

Note: fiat currency deflation cannot be stopped by increased liquidity.
To get the liquidity into the system requires that somebody
borrows. Nobody is willing to borrow when the prospect is having to
pay back in tomorrow's more expensive monetary unit.

fiat currency deflation is stopped by government price supports enforced by edicts and by government buying of production. The problem today is
that government debt levels are already so high that deficits will
cause markets to increase interest rates which is deflationary and
neutralizing of government intervention in markets.

In 1930 deflation and crash came to US AFTER deflation and crash elsewhere. If European markets crash like Hang Seng and Nikkei
this looks a lot like looming depression to me. Once US starts to deflate, international trade will collapse due to currency chaos.
Devaluation of the currency will be a competitive necessity for any
country whose exports compete with Asia.
Perhaps international will eventually be conducted in gold or in currencies pegged to gold by gold reserve redeemablity.

Why do gold mines sell gold for paper ? Why don't they sell for oil
or grain or another substance ?

Would gold price upward in $US in era of depression ?

Where is Big Money going ? Real estate can absorb a lot of big money
without much price rise.

SI is under attack by hackers, using a new version of something called teardrop
( bonk ) , the code sends corrupted UDP's to an IP address and causes the server to crash. SI comes up for a short time and then fails. Several sites are under attack, the code is available at a site called rootshell.com. their mission is supposed to be the forced improvement of security on networks, hence they make all kinds of crash tool kits available to the public. Microsoft is urgently working on the problem, but it appears this could also kill the electronic brokerage sites. All sites using NT and Win95 as servers without firewalls are exposed, Unix addressed the teardrop problem more extensively and the new variant is not affecting most open Unix type OSs, i.e. Linux. Always an Achilles heel. I don't know if this will cause a panic in the Electronic Brokerages or not, but be prepared.

I have no idea what the Chinese will do. What I see is the price of all commodities going down - metals, oil and on it goes. Precious metals have the advantage that they are priced so low that most mines are unprofitable and will have to shut down temporarily. I have about 30% of liquid assets in precious metals stocks and mutual funds, but the balanced is leverage between global bonds and a couple of stocks. What we are seeing is a debt crash in Asia which will kill imports into those countries. Many countries will suffer and certain industries will be creamed because of relative currency values - electronics, automobiles, infrastructure and on and on. The reason to hold gold and silver in this environment is that they are almost priced at a level where they are being given away. i.e very cheap based on 1998 production costs.

Tried to persuade a bunch of yuppies the other day on the Yahoo stock chat room. Got flamed. These people have an unbelievable mindset. Any suggestions ?

France - 3.45% , Italy - 2.26% , Spain - 2.05% , Switzerland - 2.96% , UK - 2.59% , Finland - 3.02% ,....

There is a rumour in the market that Placer Dome of Canada is to make a bid for Acacia, later this week. Placer Dome ( listed on the ASX as PDG ) , could use its relative higher valued share price similar to Homestake on Plutonic, to make a scrip bid for Acacia. Acacia has one or two gold mines which would fit synergistically into PDG e.g. Sunrise Dam which is close to Granny Smith ( owned by Placer ) . Acacia produces approximately 400,000 ounces per annum at a cash cost of A$340 per ounce. Acacia has approximately 2.62 million ounces in reserves, 6.88 million ounces in resources and 1.3 million ounces forward sold at A$536 per ounce.

What ya got, a golden retriever? I had a black lab with a heart full of gold. Just two cats now. Someday I'll get another lab.

Ersel, possibly your powers of persuasion or counter- argument need work. In that case, all you need to do is type in the text from a particularly compelling pro- gold post here on the Kitco Forum.

Yes, I know chat rooms are supposed to be interactive. However, it is very common to see "soliloquies" in various chat rooms.

In other words, the message itself is what matters...you need not provide interactivity...simply allow the message to be exposed.

The best way to win an argument is to avoid response...let the message stand by itself!

never growled at a human.Rotts have a bad rep.,but like most other things,ya can't always believe what ya hear.
I wouldnt take 3 Eagles and a Panda for him.

There is a possibility that Placer Dome may "go for" both Acacia and Delta Gold: would require AU$ 450m and AU$250m approx.

If we have heard it in Kalgoorlie, THEN IT MUST BE TRUE

Aye, Haggis

Toss this in that chat room: Gold + vodka = aphrodisiac. Please let us Kitcoites know what kind of reaction you get.

Thanx, I'll it a go.

Maybe I should use that as a prologue.

http://www.koreainc- news.com/index.htm
Korea Inc

http://www.asiadragons.com/business_and_finance/stock/
Asia stock markets

Seems to me that gold producers have traditionally acted like farmers. Work their backsides off, invest vast amounts of capital on the mine sites and for production plant & equipment and then hand over their produce to others. Au producers have given their control & destiny to others.
Now with a sick market perception of the gold, they are locked in. Changing the perception is possible. Yes, state the case, do not be drawn into petty arguements, and allow the power of pregnant silence to take over. The herd will follow because the herd only relies of perception as facts bore them. In the market place perception is reality and it matters not whether on is selling manure or gold.

I know how you feel about your dog. I have reluctantly grown fond of my girlfriend's cats. Not the same as my dog though, not even close. If you visit bring your dog. Good night, I think. Go gold.

Seems to me that gold producers have traditionally acted like farmers. Work their backsides off, invest vast amounts of capital on the mine sites and for production plant & equipment and then hand over their produce to others. Au producers have given their control & destiny to others.
Now with a sick market perception of the gold, they are locked in. Changing the perception is possible. Yes, state the case, do not be drawn into petty arguements, and allow the power of pregnant silence to take over. The herd will follow because the herd only relies on perception, as facts bore them. In the market place perception is reality and it matters not whether one is selling manure or gold.Please excuse typo's in previous post.

Back in Glasgow we would tell them to get "f....d", then beat them up!

However, we have progressed - when dealing with Yuppies, they never take notice of a meek person, so use a loud, strident voice at all times. If they do not understand, talk louder, and then beat them up!

Old habits die hard!

Aye, Haggis

The New Paradigm disciples consistently trounce gold as a store of value in a deflationary environment. Of course, that is why deflation is being talked through the roof... to raise the value of bonds and lower the value of gold. ( Forget the fact that printing volumes of money would eliminate a deflation virtually overnight and transform it into an inflation, as per Milt Friedman ) .

However, deflations often precipitate world- wide currency turmoil. The New Paradigm disciples never allude to this fact because if they were to do so, then they must acknowledge that gold thrives in an environment of global currency turmoil.

Again, CHANGE THE PERCEPTION! When an anti- gold propagandist elaborates on gold's dismal performance during deflations, then ask him what happens to gold in a global deflationary environment that triggers pandemic and dramatic currency volatility?

I think use it in a PS ( post script ) . I think direct mail marketing people will tell you that readers will skim the body of a message but will usually carefully read a short PS.

Junior, your analysis is cogent and precise.

Have you ever tried to use a cat as a pillow?

Your advice reminds me a story about Stalin

Once Beria ( KGB boss ) went to Stalin, said that they have found a man 100% identical to the great leader and asked what to do.

"Shoot him" was the answer.

"But maybe wh shoud just shave his mustache?"

"Good idea! Shave his mustache and shoot him"

Pity that Australia Dollars ( A$ ) are not Gold ( AU$ ) maybe we would return to the day when the A$ was more valuable than the USD. Thank you Costello Inc - who needs the gold in the CB or RB of Oz.

Ilove cats...they taste just like chicken

You guys sure put the world in a mess while I was sleeping.

Gotta go to bed or the wife gets real mad.

Haggis, when I arrive in Sydney, we'll go rough up a few Yuppies...then to celebrate, we'll drink killer Scotch until I drink you under the table.

Sounds pretty good, huh?

For Haggis eyes only-

I've known many Brits and liked them as well as

anybody. BUT, I knew one once, who was VERY well

connected ( his family ran Lloyds and there is a message

there ) . This gent referred to me as an "Amewican" and he

said "awowabowialis". His favorite comment was "You

amewicans should nevah have forgiven the Cherwmans and

the Japs aftah the Wah". This used to gall me as I had

lived in Japn for 8 years and one of my old old buddies

who introduced me to Aussie horse racing had flown in

the luftwaffe for the whole of the war and wound up in

a Russian labor camp. He had also died a few years

earlier. This guy also bragged about how many "wogs" he

had killed in Egypt and Palestine, and how his naval

unit had sunk several German ships and left the German

sailors to die in the oil fires on the water.

Even though he was much older than I, One night I had

had enough and told him to leave or run the risk of

serious physical damage. His wife as they were leaving

told me how lucky I was not to have punched him as he

had been "commando twained".

Also on the subject of commandos, when I was a kid, I

followed the 2nd world war like a hawk, and was fascinated

by the "british" commando raid on Dieppe. I only

learned many years later that those "brits" were

Canadians and took horrible casualties as "bomber"

harris denied them air cover, and Mountbatton refused

to risk much at sea to give them any support either.

There is also the case of the Yank merchant ships

under convoy to Murmansk who were left to the wolf pack

when the Brit Destroyers fled on the rumour that one

of the Cherwman pocket Battleships was on the prowl.

And this guy didn't even like DOGS - called them

"gwotty dogs ".

No cat pillows for me. One would poke my eyes out if I tried that. Besides I am allergic to the little ( ha! ) dearies. Already I take two kinds of inhalers with a third kind on hand just in case. One comes around for warm the other comes around for food. Sometimes I try to use them, with out success, for foot rests on these occasions.

- sam-

PS- Go Gold!

I keep on telling you that the "killer" Scotch is the stuff we send to America - the good stuff we keep for ourselves. Nobody drinks Johnnie Walker back in Scotland, export only!

God, you Yanks...............

Aye, Haggis

http://www.smh.com.au:80/daily/content/980108/world/world1.html

AN EXAMPLE OF BRITISH/SOUTH AFRICAN INVESTMENT IN THE USA

"The Oppenheimers of South Africa are much bigger "heavy- weights" than
the Rockefellers. For instance, in 1981 Harry Oppenheimer, chairman of
the giant Anglo American Corporation that controls gold and diamond
mining, sales and distribution in the world, stated that he was about to
launch into the North American banking market. Oppenheimer promptly in-
vested $10 billion in a specially created vehicle for the purpose
of buying into big banks in the U.S., among which was Citicorp.
Oppenheimer's investment vehicle was called Minorco ( Anglo American Corp ) , which set up shop in Bermuda, a British royal family preserve. On the board of Minorco was to be found Walter Wriston of Citicorp and Robert Clare, its chief counsel.
The only other company to rival Oppenheimer in the field of precious
metals and minerals was Consolidated Gold Fields of South Africa, but
Oppenheimer took control of it with a 28% stake the largest single
stockholder. Thus gold, diamonds, platinum, titanium, tantalite, copper,
iron ore, uranium and 52 other metals and minerals, many of them of
absolutely vital strategic value to United States, passed into the hands
of British interests.
Thus was the vision of one of the earlier South African members, Cecil
John Rhodes, fully realized.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

Now I take your point, but may I suggest that the series of acquisitions underway is financied by the BIG BOYS - Rothchild, Anglo American, Rio Tinto..........

Aye, Haggis

There is no precedent by which to gauge the price performance
of gold in a deflationary environment of fiat currencies.

In the last great episode, the dollar was redeemable in gold.
Now all of the major currencies are fiat currencies.
In the last great episode, the US government did not have 5+ trillion
of debt going in.

All currencies today are essentially credit. Hence their economies
depend on borrowing to function. When borrowing stops ( as it
does when deflation sets in ) , credit economies grind to a halt.

Even reflation will not restart them when the debt overhead
exceeds the value of a country's production. Is this already
the case in Japan which has been trying to relate for several
years already ?

You guys are GREAT !!! I shall try to be persuave , use seduction , then beat them within an inch of their lives ! Honest, I'll sleep on it. Good nite from the chiily Midwest.

Lenin after gaining power in Russia was in one of the large palaces with a large central courtyard in the depth of a frozen Russian winter when his subordinates reported that the rich merchants were not toeing the line and respecting the power of the new regine. He order that 12 large turkeys should be delivered to the courtyard. The turkeys were delivered and he ordered that they be set free. Upon being set free the turkeys wondered at will and messed everywhere. Then he said sieze the turkeys and so they did. They then said now what Sir? Lenin said pluck each turkey back to the very bare skin and set them loose. So they plucked each turkey and stripped each one bare. In the freezing cold of the Russian winter in the vast courtyard of the palace the plucked turkeys immediatley huddled together and did not stray and were easily mananged and controlled.Then he shouted and said must I now tell you how to deal with the merchants?
I think we can draw much from this story as to how governments treat citizens and it really matters not if they are socialist or capitalists.
Gold and other PM's are a valuable wealth store and should still back currency or oil or Whatever. After all we can use lettuce leaves or cabbage leaves as currency they were backed by something everybody universally agreed was precious and valuable.
We have been plucked but not for long.
ANOTHER: If you are only 10% correct- I will be pleased $1000.00 p/0z Au sounds nice to me!!

Aye, I did say Poms were an acquired taste.

Between Scotland and England there is a major geological structural dislocation called the Iapetus Suture. With any luck, within a few million years or so, the fault will have moved and we will have got rid of them!

Aye, Haggis

Donald
It was the drambuie - honestly.

Townsville 400km south loves chaos.
They just had half their yearly rain in one day.
And this is a tropical town used to tropical downpours.
And cyclones.
Bucketloads of chaos.
And today here was soooo hot and sweaty.
Shame it didn't rain here today.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Korean firms' FX losses exceed US$15 billion

JAN. 12, 1998  Korea's listed companies saw their combined foreign exchange loss exceed 24 trillion won ( about US$16 billion ) in 1997, according to industry sources.

A survey of 458 companies listed on the Korea Stock Exchange that have foreign currency asset or loans showed that their combined loss from the abrupt rise in the exchange rate of the won to the U.S. dollar amounted to 24.63 trillion won.

The figure represents an eight- fold increase from 1996's 2.86 trillion won. The won's value depreciated by 67.6% to the U.S. dollar from 844.2 won at the beginning of 1997 to 1,415.2 won at the end of the year.

Moody's is reviewing debt ratings
of several major firms

JAN. 12, 1998  Moody's Investors Service has placed the debt ratings of Korean companies under review for possible downgrade, according to the company sources.

The review was made in connection with the announcement that the rating firm has placed Korea's sovereign ceiling for foreign currency borrowings under review for possible downgrade.

Korean companies, whose foreign currency debt obligations will be affected, are Pohang Iron and Steel, Hyundai Motors, LG- Caltex Oil Corp., Yukong Ltd., Korea Electric Power Corp., Korea Telecom., Hyundai Semiconductor America, and Samsung Electronics.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ANZ, CBA suffer from Indonesian downgrades
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980112/banking/banking1.html

ANZ Banking Group and Commonwealth Bank of Australia faced further blows to their joint- venture subsidiaries in Indonesia at the end of last week, with credit rating downgrades for their joint- venture partners - - each assigned a "junk" Caa1 rating by Moody's Investor Services.

Great Lenin story!

Aye, exactly! Women are "safer"?!

If the American people ever realize how their government has sold them down the river over and over again to bail out the blokes, there will be a bull market in hanging rope.

Deport all blokes works for me.

And, if you ever tasted it you would know that in a free market American moonshine would put Scotch in the shade.

Are you sure about that? Some women in the past, especially those closest to me have nearly done me in. I have to admit, after a rocky start my current Honey Baby is the best thing that ever happened to me.

At this time the AU$ gold price is 440. Average production costs are generally 300 to 350, so a profit is still beingmade for operating companies. JUnior explorers are DEAD.

Costello...... a typical politician, no balls, weak chin, "backed"....he has cost investors in Australia BILLIONS of dollars. Both sides of politics here - Howard and Beasley.........come on? Before I forget, Beasley is a "chosen one", a Rhodes Scholar, and Howard just wants a knighthood.......arise Sir Johnnie......

Australia badly needs to reform its tax system, we are twenty years behind Europe. The place works because people in the mining industry and the farmers have got BALLS........

Aye, Haggis

You sound like a Gentleman, and a New Age Chap!

http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image196.gif
Shows the trin yrt to peak out.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`
The Jabberstock.

Twas bullig, and the slithy brokers
Did buy and gamble in the craze
All rosy were the Dow Jones stokers
By market's wrath un- phazed.
``Beware the Jabberstock, my son!
The cost that bites, the worth that falls!
Beware the Econ'mist's word, and shun
The spurious Street o' Walls!''
He took his forecast sword in hand:
Long time the Boesk'some foe he sought
Sake's liquidity, so d'vested he,
And stood awhile in thought.
And as in bearish thought he stood
The Jabberstock, with clothes of tweed,
Came waffling with the truth too good,
And yuppied great with greed!
Chip Black! Chip Blue!
And through and through the forecast blade went snicker- snack!
It bit the dirt, and with its shirt,
He went rebounding back.
``And hast thou slain the Jabberstock?
Come to my firm, V.P.ish boy!
O big bucks day! Moolah! Good Play!''
He bought him a Mercedes Toy.
Twas panic, and the slithy brokers
Did gyre and tumble in the Crash
All flimsy were the Dow Jones stokers
As mammon's wrath them bash!

Looking at the overnight market numbers are conclusive to me. There is no way the IMF, BIS, US Treasury or anyone else can bailout this mess. It is over and they know it this morning. Paper of all kinds will be hit. US bonds will begin to come under suspicion. Credit of all kinds will be suspect and examined closely. This is the big one.

Thanks, I think. Hope we can all meet someday and try to drink eachother under the table. G,nite.

PS- Go Gold

In London, the "blokes" are actually refered to as "THE CHAPS".

What Australia needs is a Declaration of Independence from the blokes.

How much did London benefit from Au RB sale of bullion ?

FTSE100
- 122.5pts
2 stocks up
2 stocks square
96 stocks down.

Be that as it may, the Au people pay a pretty high price for Knighthoods and other silly such when London is doing the gold fixing ( pardon the pun ) , in this man's opinion.

test...no posts since 0600

Some excerpts from Bob Brinker's financial show over the weekend:

...the market will go through the roof.
...the bad news bears will be crying.
...market downside potential: Not much.
...market has already discounted the Asian problem.
...the nervous nellies are already out of the market, drinking milk.
...last week was a short term pullback.
...market is an outright buy in the 7400's.
...market will be 8300- 8500 MINIMUM by summer.


Now we can all relax...

Hello...ello...ello...elo...elo..lo..lo..lo...anybody else out there....

Your 3:51 is encouraging to us Silver longs. Hope you're right!

To say Asian Stock markets were pounded on Monday is a gross understatement. Worst price hammering was in Hong Kong ( DOWN 774 point to 8121 ) and Singapore ( DOWN 103 points to 1073 ) . At this rate both HK and Singapore Stock Indices would be at Zero in a little ober two weeks if they continue to lose the same numberof points each day.

donald_a@531- - - -

i agree 100% ......this has drawn me toward believing that
within the next 2 weeks gold will re- emerge to sit in its'
right- ful place amongst the respected ones.......and there
will not be very many........

cherokee!; ) - firmly- strapped- in- - - and- waiting- for- BOND- BOMBII- to- explode..

We are expecting a TOTAL rationalisation of the gold industry here in Australia. However, it is a BIG place with opportunities for aggressive junior companies.

In South Africa, gold is controlled by a selected few major companies. This has essentially existed for 100 years. It is dominated by Anglo American. JUnior mining companies don't exist.

In Australia, even today, there is a lot of virgin ground. Most local companies are under capitalised and are funded by the local stock market. Over the last ten years there has, to a certain extent, been a growth of certain companies in particular Normandy. Now, Normandy, before a name change, were backed by Anglo who had 20% equity.

Rio Tinto have, over the last 2 years, quietly taken over CRA. They are most likely the largest operating mining company in Australia, possibly bigger now than BHP. LONDON HAS GAINED !!!!!!!

Aye, Haggis

You guys who don't read old posts, Kitco had power outage in the early AM. Now everything is back up and running.

What's going to happen in Au, Ag, etc.????

How low will silver fall? Are the funnymentals still in place? ( I think they are )

We just took out 5.50 on the way down.

The modern economic equivalent of Pearl Harbor will ensue this week...same players just a different stage. Although our Golden Sword of Justice will sustain nicks and stain, it will not break and it's magical powers will endure...It will shine for all to see! Behold! Unleash the power of the Sword and swing it swiftly!

Old news now.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ten year bond is now at 5.374% and is below the Fed Funds rate at 5.5%

For the week the DOW lost 384.62 points ( 4.83% ) , the S & P 500 lost 4.85% , the NASDAQ lost 4.95% , the Wilshire Small Cap lost 5.54% and the Russell 2000 lost 5.40%

FTSE 100 4994.50 - 143.80 at 10:39 on 12 Jan 98
1 stocks up
1 stocks square
98 stocks down.

Morgan Stanley World Indice.
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/MSCI1.gif
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Peregrine lodges liquidation papers
http://www.scmp.com/news/index.idc

Compared to the way gold has been getting battered lately, last night was a good night.

The fact that it held the line in the face of worldwide trouble, when it has been going down on all news lately, is IMHO a possible sign of strength.

It's been down before, and has come back. Maybe now is such a time.

What If the Dollar Just Keeps Rising?

Nationally syndicated market anakyst, Rick Ackerman, shares his insights about the adverse strength of the greenback.

Business couldn't be better, consumers are as confident as they've been inyears, the dollar is king and interest rates are bouncing near multi- year lows.

Not much for U.S. investors to worry about, right?

Think again. That strong dollar, of all things, is threatening to
blight the rosy picture by destabilizing financial markets and constricting global trade. Moreover, there is no apparent way to
stop it. WHAT ARE THE DIRE RAMIFICATIONS

To read the report, copy & paste the URL ABOVE to your Internet call- up window ( Location ) , then hit ENTER.

Todays earnings reports:
Compdent: Q4 below estimates
Avecor 0.01 to 0.03 VS 0.06
Laserscope says wont meet estimates
TSA sees lower Q4 EPS
ABN sees lower Q4 EPS
NANX sees Q4 below expectations
LBY says doesnt expect to meet forecast
ALBANY AIN said Q4 to be 0.06 ( Q4 96 0.49 )

Doin me best but S+P futures still down 10.70 ( first time I could access this site ( Bart ) since yesterday afternoon- - - how much longer till we go down again??

US dollar is weak against the dmark and sfranc. With fear and fast money in the air, this shouldn't be. Gold turn near.

Drambuie eh. Consider it done.

Silverbaron: Palladium still runnin' this a.m.; let's hope the dedicated North American producers wake up ( I realize both are hedged, which doesn't help ) . Bart: hope you're OK up there in storm- stricken Montreal...helluva mess from what I hear on the news. Good Morning, Mira Bay ( Ted ) ! Howcome ya got yer butt kicked offa "Caper Chat"???

HI!- - - - got kicked off cause I told the 'truth'- - - a no- no in Cape Breton! Hope all goes OK for you guys!!!!

ALAN GREENSPAN: Can a leopard change his spots...?

In 1981 Alan Greenspan spilled his guts, poured his heart out, gave us the straight- skinny, let it all hang out ABOUT WHAT HE REALLY THINKS ABOUT THE GOLD STANDARD. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY, he spoke in everyday common, clear language... he obviously wanted EVERYONE TO GRASP HIS THOUGHT, to comprehend, indeed to understand the essence of the GOLD STANDARD... its benefit and its control of THE IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE OF POLITICIANS. Is this the echo of the future?

To read Greenspan's essay on the GOLD STANDARD, copy & paste the ABOVE URL to your Internet call- up window ( Location ) , then hit ENTER.

Is it 'happy hour'......yet??

S+P futures down 13.50 ( I'm losing control of this 'situation' ) - - Where are the dip- sticks??....now - 13.90~~~~~~

Ted: About what I thought! S& P Futures close to limit down by 0930, I wonder? Mighty rush to quality with respect to gold...heh heh. E- mail to follow then off to the trenches...

And we competively played "paper, scissors and rocks". Each one trying their best to guess what the other would signal with their hand. Today we play..."paper, words and swords". You need not guess what I have in my hand. Behold! You Lying Bastards! Take this!

On gold paper and the XAU/Spot Ratio. I was just trying to make the point that gold shares were a form of "paper gold" in it most speculative form. They trade at a significant discount to spot based upon the risk, the lack of certainty that you can get the stuff out of the ground. The XAU/Spot Ratio is a way to measure the current perception of investors in that type of undertaking. ( pun intended )

Yes.

Does anyone know how the Joberg Gold Index closed today?

Does anyone know how the Joberg Gold Index closed today?

Better send the Crash Control Team ( hereinafter to be referred to as CCT ) to Brazil. Down 7.25% this AM. http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Limit down open on the S& P is generally an excellent area to 'fade' the move. There will more than likely be a rush to buy at that point. How successful they will be remains to be seen. Have to see how it plays out. A very interesting day ahead!

S& P 500 MAR98 916.00 - 1350
Been as low as 14+ now 13.00 really bouncing around.
CitiBank downgraded!

TOLERANT!!! Draw your Mighty Golden Sword Of Justice and bring us their heads! My dear God, I do love this.

the japanese are fixing to detonate BOND- BOMBII......
another sneak attack coming ala pearl harbor.....
think about the analogies......japan strikes at the
heart of the us....again.....first with bombs- - pearl harbor....
now with bond- bombs- - wall street.......damned striking comparison,
and extremely ironic........they were unable to stop the eagle
with their steel and bombs the first time.....this time
a paper- puppet will knock the eagle from the skies she claimed
220 years ago..........our bed was laid by the bankers, nwo,
politicos, and lawyers........theirs is coming....

japan has no choice......gotta sell bonds....it's all that's left....

bis??? how about bull- in- ( deep ) sh!t c- max- - - where is the open
buying?............just ANOTHER big trader.........another big dummy...

another day at the paper- machine- - - - - - running in reverse......

cherokee!; ) ..dotssmfatimm- - - - - - - - - bsfthtf- - asatbbl

And I'm off ta build em.....Tolerant1- yer a man after me own heart!!! Later duuuudes~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Brazil
Bovespa Index
^BVSP
9:05AM
8480
- 639
- 7.00%

Tolerant
Depthcharges are great, especially at the end of the bottle.

http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Goldie1.gif
Black line = gold price.
Red line = OZ gold index.
Green line = Johburg gold index

JSE ALL GOLD, South Africa, - 29.5 ( - 4.06% ) .

The justice handed out will be golden and wielded by none other than the ultimate Judge. The eyes of truth are ever vigilant. They will not pay a price, they will pay with their souls. Forever cast into an infinity of darkness. The bell doth toll.

$279.60 +$0.50
Some Questioning the Long Bond's value as an investment.
S& P - 12.00

Yes!

Wilst thou swill java in your holes and wait for the insidious enemy? Or wilst thou join the mighty brave and me and claim the victory...they will mock us no more...Charge! Damn Ye Bugs!

interest rate HIKE coming from the fed......they must
raise rates......the current environment demands it....

it is coming.....and what a shock it will be....but, not to me....imm

EBH8
TBH8
USH8
TYH8
XBH8
on Quote.com

Russia down 12.7%
Turkey down 10.8%
Hungary down 9%

Only twice in the last 20 years has the price spread between platinum and palladium dropped below $200. Both times it did this, it continued dropping to around $140 ( eyeballing off the charts ) . Very soon after the spread dropped to $140, the two biggest gold/platinum bull markets in history started. 1978- 1980 and 1985- 1986.

This is the third time! The spread dropped below $200 in October last year. It continued dropping, and today it hit 139.

Just another historical statistic in our favor.

What the heck is going on with Silver??

Anyone have a clue??

OUCH! I went long silver on Friday and woke up this morning to find half my leg missing, taken by a silver bear. Guess I'm still better off than all those getting a big dose of misery today from the stock markets. Off to clean the wound and count my blessings. Going to be interesting to see where this stops. Was RJ right after all with his timing off just a bit or are we destined for new heights?

fundaMETAList

Der Blitzkieg - - -

Unemployment in Germany has risen to its highest level for 60 years.

The figures announced on Friday prompted Chancellor Helmut Kohl to concede that German unemployment would NOT be halved by the year 2000 - a goal he pledged to achieve two years ago.

Most economists expect the jobless rate, already at the highest levels SINCE THE EARLY 1930S WHEN ADOLPH HITLER CAME TO POWER, TO RISE FURTHER IN 1998.

...Can the politicians of the world NOT see what we are all hurling towards with almost calvalier abondon... and in extreme haste?????

1938... the eve of der Blitzkieg

Here are best current prices in the U.S. I can find this morning:

All prices from F.J. Vollmer ( 800 ) 447- 8368

Silver 90% bags ( US$1000 face ) $3675

Gold 1 oz Eagles or Maple Leafs $292.25

$20 gold Libs or St. Gaud. MS- 62 PCGS $455

MS- 63 PCGS $545

$20 gold St. Gaudens MS- 64 $555

Other contacts for you to call to compare prices ( these will probably be the best of the lot, with good stocks of all the coins ) :

National Gold Exchange ( 800 ) 969- 2646

Jefferson Coin and Bullion ( 800 ) 877- 8847

Dillon Gage ( 800 ) 375- 4653

BillD
EB is probably shorting it.

BillD - - It's just finishing up its correction. Unless it decides otherwise.

If EB is shorting silver ... send him A...W...A...Y.... ; )

so as to give MAXIMUM CONFIDENCE int he U.S. dollar in the midst of the market turmoil..

Forward observers just radioed that a jubilant Studio.R was seen wielding a golden sword and the head of Don Kudlow...a remarkable sight.
Tolerant, justice is in my hand.

Allow me to be so bold as to paraphrase ( in not so cryptic terms ) the
perception I have of the reality ANOTHER is ( perhaps? ) trying to
convey to anyone who will listen and ponder.
The continuing success of fiat currency as money depends on the
continuing confidence ( read "ignorance" or "delusion" ) of the masses.
Because every major world government participates in this scheme they
either sink or swim TOGETHER...hence the IMF lifeguard; noone shall be
allowed to drown- - however too many swimmers floundering around can be
a real challange.
The arab nations have existed figuratively since time began, and
therefor they have a different perspective than a relative upstart
United States. And many countries sit at the table with the USA playing
games of poker for matchsticks, beleiving in time that matchsticks make
the world go 'round. An arab nation has no interest in matchsticks, but
does nothing to interrupt the game as long as its true interests are
met.
The arab nations know better than to squander its national treasure (
oil ) in return for matchsticks ( dollars ) . But the 'game' would not
be interruped because these same matchsticks could immediately buy an
amount of gold that was deemed a fair exchange for the oil. Actual
prices mean nothing so long as the cash price for oil could buy the
desired quantity of gold. For a time, much of this gold was represented
by paper ( gold backed dollar or COMEX- type certificates ) but this is
about to change.
See Cmax's EXCELLENT post saturday, Jan. 10, @ 23:13. Price means
nothing when it is the physical gold you want or have been promised in
past. Paper promises will no longer suffice.
This is significant because this line of thinking will be acted on at a
national level by a player important enough to change the paradigm. A
handfull of citizens squawking for abandonment of fiat currencies for a
return to real money is easily dismissed by world governments that know
how much is at stake with their matchstick winnings at the card table.
But imagine how rapidly the 'handful' will expand to include the entire
population when the dollar is revealed for what it is by the sentiment
and action of the middle- east. It won't take long for the average
citizen to ponder why the middle- east will no longer accept dollars as
payment for oil...those with gold will not exchange it for paper. Oil
will seek gold directly.
It is meaningless to talk about skyrocketing prices in terms of dollars.
Dollars will burn. Necessities will be exchanged as they are today, but
they will be priced in gold. This is not troublesome. Gold will be
revalued ( in the conventional way of thinking with prices in terms of
dollars ) such that the existing gold will represent the equivalent
purchasing power of all existing paper money.
This is how it should be! But with the coming transition and exchange of
paper wealth for its equivalent share of the world's gold, you are
advised that today's exchange rate is far more favorable than
tomorrow's.
Why does ANOTHER feel compelled to post? Compassion for his fellow man,
and who better to reach out to than those who already know the reason
for accepting only gold as payment, not paper promises.
The sentiment of the masses changing is what will drive out the fiat
currencies. SE Asians now know the truth; the cat is out of the bag on a
grand scale, and this concerns the arab nations in regard for their past
complaisance for paper promises of gold and its future delivery.

Monday January 12, 8:42 am Eastern Time

U.S. stock funds lose $2.31 bln in 3 days - survey

NEW YORK, Jan 12 ( Reuters ) - U.S. stock funds had estimated redemptions of $2.31 billion in the three days ended January 8,
as aggressive growth funds lost a record $2.35 billion, according to fund tracking service Mutual Fund Trim Tabs.

This compares with estimated inflows of $2.50 billion into domestic stock funds in the two days ended January 5, it said.

Growth funds lost an estimated $1.18 billion in the three days after taking in $1.17 billion in the prior two days, but growth and
income funds took in an estimated $1.09 billion after taking in $1.26 billion in the prior period, it said.

Tracked technology funds lost $358 million during the three day period, Trim Tabs said. The group said this was the highest
level of outflow in its record, which date to December 1995 for technology funds. Other flow data go back to October 1994.

Small cap funds saw outflows of 0.3 percent of assets, implying that all such funds lost $200 million, it said. Real estate funds
were the only U.S. stock funds to show inflows.

International funds lost an estimated $1.27 billion in the three day period after losing an estimated $292 million in the previous
two day period, Trim Tabs said.

``Breadth was terrible as 26 managements had redemptions, while 13 were flat and four got new cash,'' it said.

Worldwide funds lost $73 million or 0.4 percent, despite outperforming most funds, it said. Net asset values for this fund
segment fell 1.4 percent compared with a 2.3 percent decline for U.S. funds and 2.2 percent for international funds.

Pacific ex- Japan funds lost 4.9 percent of assets to outflow, and their net asset value fell 8.4 percent, it said.

All equity funds, including international funds, lost $3.58 billion in the three days versus inflows of $2.20 billion in the
previous two days, it said.

Bond funds had estimated inflows of $952 million in the three days after prior estimated inflows of $2.05 billion. High yield
funds took in $553 million in the three days after taking in $192 million in the prior period, it said.

Municipal bond funds took in an estimated $56 million, up from prior inflows of $1.69 billion, Trim Tabs said.

I hope you are alone!

Monday, Jan 12, 1998
NY Times
Timothy O Brien

South Korea's banks are technically in default on billions of dollars of loans that have been twice extended by international lenders, according to a leading credit- rating agency.

The agency, Moody's Investors Service Inc., gave a more direct description of the financial difficulties South Korea faces than that favored by international lenders. It was unclear what impact Moody's declaration of a technical default would have on the South Korean banks.

http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/news/financial/korea- banks.html

s korea has had its' infusion of imf cash, and it
turned their market around.....what happens when
their new- found confidence takes another bath?
s korea is fixing to re- join then ranks of the
asian- paper- tiger- for- lunch- bunch- - - - their menu??

bottom dwellers of the slimy type......

I am now.

Football? Don't even say the word dammit! The 49'rs loss ( remember they were named after GOLD fever adherents! ) , was almost as ugly as the meltdown in SIlver from blatant manipulation by Merril Lynch!

Not to chew on sour grapes, but the 49'rs made no less than TWO touchdowns that were somehow "missed" by the refs. Stokes pushed out of endzone, and recovered fumble TD. Bring back instant replay!

As to Silver, we outta bring a lawsuit against the Nimrods who are threatening a lawsuit! **Buy opportunity**, **buy opportunity**, !!alert!! alert!!...but how far will it fall meanwhile???

gold ( feb ) now at 279.3 quote.com
279.2 dbc.com
279.3 cbs market watch
kitco frozen
So IT IS UP!!! Great!!!

gold ( feb ) now at 279.3 quote.com
279.2 dbc.com
279.3 cbs market watch
kitco frozen
So IT IS UP!!! Great!!!

Good grief. I was kidding. This battle has not even begun. Do not waste your strength. Camdesuss, Rubin and the other paper boys will be tough to root out. We will get them. Everything in time. Everything in time.

When you see the smoke coming out of the ears of the CNBC Full Metal Puppets that will be the time. Their Nomex insulation is holding so far. It will not be long though. When the tape feed frys and all you hear them saying over and over is "Cautious optimism," "Cautious optimism."

Then it will be time.

You may wish to check back over the last two days or so - ever been to Africa?

AG & RR are in the futures pits with the treasure checkbook.

Aye, They may well be doing the same "market manipulation" to GOLD. I hope that they are not mates of yours!

Wow! Someone is posting as A.Goose look a like. to confusing for the moring. Just got on it could be me.

Japan Premier Seeks Support of Plan

By CHESTER DAWSON Associated Press Writer

TOKYO ( AP ) - - With a declining stock market as an ominous backdrop, Japan's prime minister sought support today for his plans to stabilize the shaken financial system and turn around a sluggish economy.
( "sluggish" ????? sdrer )

In an annual speech at the opening session of Parliament, Ryutaro Hashimoto reiterated a pledge not to allow Japan to trigger a global financial panic.

don't you just hate it when a market does what it is 'supposed to'?

silver- - - IF it is indeed in a bull market....should re- trace to
the 520- 540 level before beginning its' nest run- up.....
other- wise it will go below 475 again........imm

Premier Silver mining issue, SSRIF, is off THIRTEEN percent already today! Talk about a meltdown!

BTW Cherokee, looks like you were right about Silver, and I, LGB the great, was wrong as wrong can be. Frame this please and remind me daily....

Well, apparently someone knows how to post as others. Very good.

Date: Mon Jan 12 1998 09:49
A.Goose ( ) ID#20137:
gold ( feb ) now at 279.3 quote.com
279.2 dbc.com
279.3 cbs market watch
kitco frozen
So IT IS UP!!! Great!!!

is a post I put up early this morning. Hopefully they didn't say anything mean to anyone, remember I am a very quiet type of poster who basically avoids hastles.

A.Goose ( honored to be impersonated )

Venezuela - 11.7%

A Scotsman was sick and in hospital. His doctors were afraid that this
was to be the end of him since nothing they did could do anything to
make him healthy. His physician asked him if there was anything that he
could do to make him more comfortable in his final hours. The Scot
replied, "If I could only hear the pipes one more time it would make me
very happy." So the doctor arranged for a piper to come into the room
and play for the dying man.

When the Scot heard the pipes the color came back into his cheeks, his
eyes became bright, his breathing was easier, and he got up and danced
around the room. He was completely cured! Later, while recounting the
tale to his fellows over lunch the doctor confessed that this was a
miracle cure that he couldn't explain. When the pipes began to play the
Scotsman was cured. The only problem he could see was that 2 Englishmen
in for checkups died.

More pipes please...........................

Cherokee - Agree. I see some support at 5.45, more at 5.40; next stop 5.20 if 5.40 doesn't hold.

Fascinated by your posting handle. How're things in golden Gondor today? Troubled by the CNBC hobbits? Or perhaps the CB Orcs raiding the southerlands, led by "Sauron" Camdessus? I guess we goldbugs count as dwarfs hoarding our stashes against the market Smaug. Gollum? That's LGB...

Any other Tolkienites out there? See any other ( or different ) parallels to middle earth?

Mates o' mine? No way! This Armstrong feller contradicts his own statements in the same paragaph! On the one hand he says it'd be almost impossible to hide a huge stockpile of silver, and silver purchases, and would be obvious to all...and on the other hand he states that this is what has been happening!!

Which is it Armstrong, you Silver short covering bastard?

( OKOK I'm grouchy today, even though I'm rootin for a DOW fall to 6700 or so, and it seems to be trending in that direction...Puetz, help me out, call for a rebound so the damn thing will fall a lot further! )

"Scotsman" ?? You sure you didn't mean "Scotchman" ?? ;- )

After checking weekend posts between FundaMETALIST and APH, regarding E- Wave analysis of March Silver, today's action so far looks like the top is not wave 3, but wave 5. However, this doesn't make much sense since it only looks like two major impulse moves so far. If silver drops further, could this actually be the end of a Wave C correction with major moves to the downside coming? I don't have very long term charts so I don't know the E- Wave picture long term ( Monthly/Yearly ) . Thoughts??

Best measure of broad market, S& P 500, now UP Puetz. Dammit, why did you have to go and call for another full moon crash today?? If you'd have just kept quiet, the overnight Asian meltdown might have finally given me the BUY opportunity I was hoping for but now....I may have to wait weeks or months!

Please Puetz, call for a Silver crash and a DOW rise so I can make my market moves.......

G'day Haggis. Hope you're not frying too much at Kalgoorlie. I may
be out there in early March perhaps. Will advise later.

BREAKING STORIES:

Peregrine Merchant Bank - An Asian Chicken coming home to roost
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980113/pageone/pageone2.html

Foes of IMF plan rally to fight Clinton
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980113/world/world1.html

DHL Founder - Legacy of a Tycoon
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980113/world/world4.html

Yields in tailspin after rush on bonds
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980113/business/business2.html

Now it's the tigers' turn for punishment
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980113/market/markets2.html

Central Europe suffers emerging- market flu
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980113/world/world3.html

IN REVIEW:

Delinking HK dollar a different ball game
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980112/world/world3.html

Taiwan prepares for yuan's fall by June - - just in case
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980110/world/world3.html

A simple lesson in Economics - The Maverick
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980110/market/markets3.html

Doubts over use of RBAs TWI in measuring balance of Trade with Asia
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980110/news/news1.html

US- Japan clash threatens financial stability
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980110/world/world2.html

Indonesian food panic the worst since 1960s - IMF, US to rescue Rupiah
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980110/world/world1.html

Over 90% of Indonesian Companies technically bankrupt
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/980109/international/stories/indonesia_2.html

HOW EXOTIC DERIVATIVES TOOK DOWN KOREA'S ECONOMY
http://nypostonline.com/business/2439.htm

Who is going to go next after Asia?
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980110/business/business2.html

The Multilateral Agreement on Investment ( MAI )
http://www.gwb.com.au/gwb/news/onenation/press/maiabc.html

MAHATHIR'S ECONOMIC THUNDERBOLT OUT OF THE BLUE
http://www.gwb.com.au/gwb/news/onenation/mahat.html

Just what is the IMF anyway, and does it get it right?
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980107/world/world2.html

Seoul, Bangkok face $178bn payout - European Banks flushed out?
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980105/world/world1.html

Rubin defends Asian Bailouts
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/980105/business/stories/asia_1.html

Soros to do Korea over again - softened up for the kill
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980105/korea_soros_picture_1.html

Deflation fears take bonds back to the 60s
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980106/business/business1.html

GREENSPAN DEFLATION SPEECH: Problems of Price Measurement
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980106/verbatim/verbatim1.html

Getting burned by your Company Share Scheme
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971231/news/news1.html

After 15 years the bulls are looking for a break
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971230/invest/ivsuper.html

Reproducing the 1930s
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971227/world/world1.html

Japanese Banks not out of the woods
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid= 19971226233505010& top= biz& template= Default.htx& maxfieldsize= 3318

Mid Level Officials lobbying for Chinese Devaluation!
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971219/world/wwashington.html

BOOKMARK Steves News Page:
( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/blizard.htm

Karlito decided to visit Australia, and one afternoon he was found sitting on a stone near an outback farm, all in blood and crying.

A friendly Scotsman just happened to be passing by. "What's wrong?" he asked.

"I bought a new boomerang," the crying Karlito answered.

"So, why are you crying?" the Scotsman asked again.

"I cannot throw away the old one............."


= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

Aye, it makes you wonder!

TSE down with a thud this AM, but now coming back; TSE gold stocks at morning low. Looks like dead cat bounce for Dow and S& P; latter has come back up nicely.

y2kbug- - - -

surely you jest! i've referenced gollum, and my precious here many
times.......the ents also have made copy......the past holds
the keys and answers to the future.......

read kitco - - - - the archives- - - - for everything you can imagine,
has been either trumpeted, swatted, or elevated, depending
upon its' status.......i have gollum's preciousssss........
he blinked in a stare- off and i made- off with 'it.' can be
loaned for 1/4oz gold per hour...........

!;..........stalking- the- one- legged- seller- of- gold..............

( I know what you are going to say BUT he is a good technician ) Joe Granville answered a question ( the last time he was on TV ) about what would change his mind about being a bull in this market. His answer was if the DOW dropped below 7563, he would worry. 7563 was important support. If you noticed they pulled it all the way up to just above 7563 . Around 7610.

Also a lot of action in gc8g. Heavy volume trying to move above 280, but as of yet it has been unable to get above that price. I think we will know soon if ANOTHER is real, and that we have been given a peak at the other side.

Goes of course to Karlito, the only poster here with a genuine command of the meaning of economics, currency trading, historical analysis, etc.

Naturally, Hepcat get's a close second for stirring the pot of Goldbugism, to more thought provoking heights than the old tired, redundant, ceaseless refrain of "Meltdown", "fiat currency collapse", "conspiracy", "talking heads". and "Y2K".

Karlito decided to visit Australia, and one afternoon he was found sitting on a stone near an outback farm, all in blood and crying.

A friendly Scotsman just happened to be passing by. "What's wrong?" he asked.

"I bought a new boomerang," the crying Karlito answered.

"So, why are you crying?" the Scotsman asked again.

"I cannot throw away the old one............."


= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

Aye, it makes you wonder!

First, God created the Irish. He said to himself, "These people
are fun. They're very fun. But I don't want them to ever
rule the world." So to handicap them, He gave them Whisky.

Then God created the Scots. He said to himself, "These people
are almost as much fun as the Irish. But I don't want them to
ever the world, either." So to handicap them, He gave them Kilts
and Bagpipes.

Then God created the Welsh. He took one look at them, and said,
"No way!!". So to handicap them, He gave them the Welsh
Language.

Finally, God created the English. And for the smallest possible
moment in time, He was worried. For he knew that these people
would come closer to ruling the world than any of the others. So
he realized that he needed to give them a great handicap. So He
gave them ... the Irish, Scots, and Welsh.

early ramping

Now off almost FIFTEEN percent! My gawd, leverage works both ways in mining shares eh? ( As anyone who bought Gold shares or Gold mutual funds the last few years is well aware ) .

Looks like I might have to consider SSRIF for a lil play in my portfolio.

$7.00, $8.00, $9.00, and above.

Let's all jump aboard the great silver TITANIC!!!!!

Iceburgs named "Merril Lynch" futures trader "Amrstrong". Where's the lifeboats at?

Monday January 12, 10:16 am Eastern Time

Dow cuts losses, market pauses after opening fall

NEW YORK, Jan 12 ( Reuters ) - In a show of resilience, the Dow recovered almost two- thirds of the ground lost during its
opening tumble, but the day's lows may well be revisited again later in the session.

``The market opened too quickly, and too far down. I don't think there was ever any panic,'' said Peter Coolidge, senior equity
trader at Brean Murray.

``It's just the market trading back on some bargain hunting. The name of the game today will be volatility. It's a nice comeback,
but a little bit too soon,'' Coolidge said.

The Dow recovered to be down just 48 points but then began slipping lower again. At 1005 EST/1505 GMT, the Dow was off
67 points, or 0.89 percent, at 7512, compared with the day's low of 7443.41.

The S& P500 index was off 5.46 points at 922.03.

Advances trailed declines by one to five.

The Nasdaq also halved its losses as the Dow recovered, but also began slipping back lower. The tech- heavy index was off 20.59
points, or 1.37 percent, at 1482.63.

The technology stocks were helped by Intel Corp ( Nasdaq:INTC - news ) , a bellwether stock in the sector.

Topping the most active list on the Nasdaq, Intel was up one at 72- 7/8. International Business Machines Corp ( NYSE:IBM -
news ) also cut its earlier losses and was off 10/16.

JAMES DINES LATEST ON CURRENCIES

HOW WILL ASIA'S CRASH AFFECT US?

The 1929- like crash in Asia is causing misery on a biblical scale, threatening the solvency of banks, stockbrokers, margin calls undermining investors, while the crackpots running the central banks raise taxes and interest rates, wreaking havoc on the middle class and poor.

If all nations printed paper money at different rates, how could there possibly be stability?

Over the millennia, gold has been the traditional receptacle for Mass Fear, along with silver and perhaps platinum. On a "spike" there is no telling how high gold might go when so many try to buy at the same time, like a herd of elephants trying to get through a revolving door at the same time.

To read the report, copy and paste ABOVE URL to your Internet call- up window ( Location ) , then hit ENTER.

This anchor, ( redirection to the web page ) , has been
tested via the Kitco posting mechanism. It seems Ok.

http://www.acsys.com/~hong/pubfiles/kitco/bartkitco.html

Look for green words.

Go there to see if you like the presentation. Since I
get to work on this on weekends and evenings, this is
how far I got. I have to build a gui ( graphical user
interface ) , html- ers like to call it a form, so that
you can retrieve data from the archive.

If the presentation looks ok the you, then the form or
gui will be available shortly.

The page is as a result of asking the indexed arhive for
all postings that have 'bart' or 'kitco' in it ...

/ ( bart ) | ( kitco ) /

Note the presentation is very similar to the original
text. Also, the light green coloring indicate the
searched for and matched words.

The service routines seem to work ok. I spent the
week end testing various retrievals. But I am sure
there is nothing like the user community to test
a piece of software. So, when the lookup software
does get released, please be patient with me.

I indexed 67 recent days of postings. The indexer took
17 minutes to do this. So, if we add to the index at the
end of each day, or even at the end of each 6 parts per
day, the processing is not a problem.

I discarded postings which were identical to a previous
one. The logic being, since the words are identical,
it would only be confusing after the retrieval.

Also, the primary access to the postings is by the time
of posting ... since that is how I see you refering to
postings. There are a few postings that have the
same time mark ... to the second. So, I had to
add a sequence number, 0, 1, etc to the time. But
That should not matter because the key lookup by time
allows duplicate entries and partial matches. What this
means is that if you are close to the time of the
post, say it was during the 15:30 minute of theday,
then all post for that period can be retrieved.

The 67 days of postings amounted to about 26 mega bytes.
Boy, you guys write a lot :- ) ... To search the whole
base for something as odd as 'bart' or 'kitco' took
1 min and 45 seconds. To search only Janyary 1998 for
the same took only a few seconds. So, we will suggest
you limit general searches to days or weeks or months
or knowing it takes longer, to use searches on whole
years less frequently.

Any suggestions will be appreciated.

LGB, I enjoy reading your posts, especially the second helpings of crow you seem to be digesting. I am a relative neophyte in investment vehicles of any kind ( due to extreme lack of cash! ) , and gold in particular, and therefore lurk here ( and elsewhere ) to try to learn before beginning to commit my hard- earned shekels to the unforgiving markets.

I know little yet about markets and how to profit by them, but I am at the forefront of Y2K and large legacy systems, and profitting greatly there. I do not pretend to know what kind of effect Y2K will have on POG or other market indices, but I don't see the resources being allocated to the effort in sufficent amounts to avert major problems.

I apologize if my posts and others on the subject seem a tired subject to you, but it is very real to those of us who are sweating bullets to make sure the electrons keep flowing in the proper order post Y2K. I assure you, it is no small issue.

Scotland to England, to Zambia, to England, to Peru, to Chile, to Argentina, to Brazil, to South Africa, to Namibia, to Sweden, to Norway, to Finland, to Russia, to Germany, to France, to Spain, to Scotland, to New Zealand, to Australia, to Philippines, to Australia.........

Over the years, in roaming around the world, I have worked out that although my bank balance is not large, it is extremely heavy.

Whenever I move my funds into a different currency, that currency sinks.

FWIW..Go long Abx when XAU goes over 64.7

January 12, 1998
Economics experts going to court over single European currency

FRANKFURT ( AP )  Convinced that Europe simply isn't financially ready for a single currency, four German professors are going to court to postpone the Jan. 1, 1999, introduction of the euro.

The lawyer and three economics experts argue that the euro is bound to fail because European countries cannot reduce their debts or meet the other requirements of the Maastricht Treaty, the pact outlining the currency union

Germany's highest court has no deadline for deciding whether to accept the lawsuit. But it would have to act quickly if it wanted to stop the euro:
http://www.canoe.ca/WorldTicker/CANOE- wire.Euro- Lawsuit.html

to all sportsfans

A 50 % retracement of the gold/silver ratio would

bring it up to 61.5. Now assumming that silver falls

to 5.25 - then that would put gold at $323. I could

live with that.

You have to love that Palladium 223.00 +8.50. Gold has been in the positive all morning??? Maybe a good sign. Platinium is looking like it wants to make a turn and Silver has started coming back.

Could be good signs. This game with silver has just been plain silly. They same teamt that has harassed gold is after silver now. The law suite is based on " silver can not rise when gold falls because it never has and never does so ...". I would not be surprised to see silver turn on a dime and to rocket past it recent highs.

Finally I will be very interested not only in how the DOW ends the day but also how the PM's end their day. Will all the PM's end in the green??? Will the DOW end below 7563???

A lot of money was spent to keep the DOW above 7563, but much more money will be needed. Asia has spread to Europe. And look at Brazil, gateway to latin and South america.

Brazil Bovespa Index ^BVSP 11:09AM 8778 - 340 - 3.73%
Canada TSE 300 Composite ^TSE 11:10AM 6165.70 - 106.73 - 1.70%
Chile IGPA ^IGPA 11:09AM 4423.41 - 90.29 - 2.00%
Mexico IPC Index ^MXX 11:09AM 4505.660 - 42.080 - 0.93%
Peru Lima General ^IGRA 11:10AM 1646.99 - 24.82 - 1.48%
United States S& P 500 ^SPX 11:10AM 926.69 - 1.00 - 0.11%
Venezuela IBC ^IBC 11:09AM 7027.61 - 826.96 - 10.53%

Brazil is going down, it is spreading - - - PPT has a lot more work to do. Al/Rubin print lots more money.

against silver and the Euro ( with the hope perhaps that
hitting silver hits gold? )

January 11, 1998
Defence chief assures Asia of stabilizing U.S. presence

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia ( AP )  Treading lightly on the hot coals of Asia's financial meltdown, U.S. Defence Secretary William Cohen began a tour of the region Sunday to demonstrate that Washington remains "a solid ally" despite current economic turmoil.

He said his aim in Asia is to shore up confidence. "Essentially it is to convey and reinforce to the peoples of the region that the United States is a friend and a solid ally in good times and bad," Cohen said. "We are here to stay and to play on the political, economic and security fields."

Cohen added a Treasury Department official to his entourage at the last minute but said he brought no proposals for additional U.S. military aid and no advice on how to cope with the region's financial turmoil.

About 100,000 American troops are based in Asia, mostly in Japan and South Korea. In recent years Southeast Asia has become a bigger buyer of American weaponry, but the region's economic crisis already is killing some arms deals such as Malaysia's plan to buy $500 million worth of U.S. Apache helicopters.
http://www.canoe.ca/WorldTicker/CANOE- wire.Cohen- Asia.html

A little forecast

for all you s& p bashers - hang fire - we supported at

910 ish - maybe we go a little lower - But then we will

see 1045 !!!

Then line up for puts - taget 800.

Successful trading is all in the Head! If you're an active trader, but not having the success
you would like .....try this technique. Stop trading dollars and start trading points or
units. This works for me in the S& P but could be applied to any active market. The
constant $$$$$ swings in a commodity account can boggle one's mind. Keep it simple
and set a unit or point goal for the week such as 10 units ( one unit equals one full S& P
point ) . Just as a sales person has a quota to meet you should set a quota for your self
and you'll be paid for each unit earned. You will find yourself not as concerned about
money but the number of units in your account. The concern for where the market is
going next will be replaced with how can I get 2 more units to make my quota. Gains
will be taken sooner and losses cut shorter. The way the S& P is trading at night one
could scalp 1 or 2 points a night and make quota. You can figure out your account
balance by multiplying your units earned ( or lost ) and adding it to your starting balance.
The less emotion equals more success.

Mini S& P 10 units X $50 X 52 weeks = $26,000 minus cost
Full S& P 10 units X $250 X 52 weeks = $ 130,000 minus cost

Nice part time job. Real time quotes from DTN are about $180 per month.

I've made quota for the week long from 922.00

You gotta love that dow...up +42

MARKET UPDATE ( 01/11/98 ) AM- - - - - COMEX gold opened marginally higher this morning with the ragin' Asian contagion dominating all market action across the boards. The Dow was down 120 in the first two minutes but then the "fix" was put on and the market rallied. Rumors continue to circulated in the equities markets that Hong Kong and China are discussing a joint devaluation of their respective currencies - - a move which could send the Asian markets into the abyss. In South Korea today the president of that country asked visiting IMF director Michael Camdessus to address South Korean workers on the subject of them taking a wage cut to pay off the New York and Tokyo banks. Camdessus deferred to the S. Korean president saying something along the lines that it would show leadership and character if he delivered the bad news. ( "You tell them."..........."No, you tell them." ) Why do I keep thinking this whole IMF bailout scenario is going to go up in smoke? Then what?

Back to gold, their is a great deal of discussion among investment types who go beyond CNBC generated analysis that a revaluation of gold is coming down the road and that the G- 7 financial establishment doesn't want the cat to get out of the bag. I have said that there is a reason for gold being held down and that somebody is accumulating large amounts of gold at ridiculously low prices. The public has not lost out on these cheap prices as gold volumes are soaring in the United States. If this is true, a revaluation, if accomplished globally, would amount to nothing more than a devaluation of the currencies - - particularly the dollar. This could co- incide with the introduction of the euro in 1999. If there is a devaluation ( or re- valuation ) gold will spike in a short period of time and could go up multiples - - since this is what has happened in the past. Who's accumulating? Unconfirmed rumors say some of the Gulf States, particularly Saudi Arabia, which has cut an oil for gold deal through the London market ( hence the short selling, forward selling, etc. ) and the Japanese who fear getting taken to the cleaners in a dollar devaluation and begun to hedge through BOJ.

Question: Why is the dollar appreciating against the yen and going down against the mark and Swissie? Could it be that Japan is talking the yen down publicly and doing nothing to help the process save some minor BOJ intervention? There's a reason why the yen is staying up and that might have to do with long term Japanese economic policies.

More later. We basically have a quiet Monday in the bullion market today although God knows why with what's going on in Asia and elsewhere. I continue to believe that when something happens with gold it is going to be sudden. It is difficult to believe that any central bank would consider a gold loan at these low price levels, so any selling in gold has to be coming from short sellers on paper. The physical accumulators appear happy to let them have their way with the price as long as the metal flows. Meanwhile, we continue to hear about actual physical gold shortages.

Hate to say this, but as I said - never underestimate the bull. Markets are back in positive and probably will end the day with gain. Crash is not happening despite all reasoning we posted over the weekend. As I said, listen to opposing views not just what we think should happen. It may give us a clue how will paper market react.

Y2K, I don't disagree that the Y2K prob. is real. However, I have every confidence that experts like yourself and Miro, will sufficiently resolve the important systemic fixes LONG before we have some kind of disastrous "meltdown" in the financial markets beased on a software glitch that everyone is well aware of, years in advance.

Been doin' some serious mulling... Seems to me that we may be missing the obvious. With the upcoming EURO central bank in its formative state and after having already acknowledged that gold will play some role as a reserve asset, would it not be prudent for the new EURO bank to acquire this gold reserve stash at the lowest possible cost as it begins its new role? So... maybe the real reason for the CBs to influence the price of gold to these levels is to give their new EURO cousin an edge in the initial purchase of this foundation of gold. The valuation can then be allowed to rise to normal market levels, and the new bank's book value will rise dramatically. What a great way to start any business!

FundaMETAList - I went long March Silver at 550 a little early. The channel line for today is at 547. Silver has a habit of running though the tops and bottoms. The wave 4 correction is still intact.

As soon as the dow went positive, up volume soared.
Presumably buy programs cutting in.
The boys want the beast up!

Swing chart updated
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Swaa1.gif
The swing says down but the boys say up.
Either one is going to get whipsawed.
If it's the swing then roll on the next bull leg.

One thing I don't understand. Everyone here seems to believe that financial calamity, stock market crashes, currency devaluations, bank failures, etc etc. all mean that Gold will rise exponentially.

In fact we see that the OPPOSITE has ocurred and that Gold no longer behaves the way it did in the late 70's early 80's. Looks to me like folks are doing antiquated analysis in a market that has left their basic precepts behind.

Course, you should do well since you're the only one IO know who can make 800% on PUT options in a market that rises. Must have timed those trades pretty damn well eh? Bought EXCACTLY at the peak of the S& P and sold at PRECISELY the low of October 27th. Man you sure know how to time them markets Nick.

( Hmmm,,,now I confused even myself, I recall that you were still hangin on to those Puts at the end of Novermber and tellin me how they would come back "into the money" in December cause the market was still going to crash before January....yet the DOW never went back into decline and in fact rose strongly until last week's pullback....what magic did you use to get folks to buy out those Puts off'n you when they were worthless? )

sharefin - - Interesting to see the SP- 500 up so early in the morning. Is this due to the dipsters? If so, the market is likely to rally. If I were buying - - after the last week of 5 acellerating down days, I would have waited at least till the end of the day if not a few days later! The other possibility is that the PPT jumped in nearly at opening. What puzzles me is that all the stocks I follow intraday are down at least 1% , but the sp- 500 is up - - PPT again?
Any idea when the earnings reports are coming out? As I recall, they can be late afternoon, or even after closing.

Good thing I sold my silver stocks - - right LGB? I will reenter the silver market when the dust settles. Looks like there is a formal investigation afterall, but I don't know how effective intgernational law is regarding forcing the suspect silver cornering parties to sell their silver. I wonder - - does the US have any silver stash left - - how about that strategic stockpile we once had?

sharefin - - Interesting to see the SP- 500 up so early in the morning. Is this due to the dipsters? If so, the market is likely to rally. If I were buying - - after the last week of 5 acellerating down days, I would have waited at least till the end of the day if not a few days later! The other possibility is that the PPT jumped in nearly at opening. What puzzles me is that all the stocks I follow intraday are down at least 1% , but the sp- 500 is up - - PPT again?
Any idea when the earnings reports are coming out? As I recall, they can be late afternoon, or even after closing.

Good thing I sold my silver stocks - - right LGB? I will reenter the silver market when the dust settles. Looks like there is a formal investigation afterall, but I don't know how effective intgernational law is regarding forcing the suspect silver cornering parties to sell their silver. I wonder - - does the US have any silver stash left - - how about that strategic stockpile we once had?

test

Date: Mon Jan 12 1998 11:23
BillD ( @ a gOOSE ) ID#258427:
You gotta love that dow...up +42

Sorry BillD, I missed that. I thought DOW was up 2.24 11:45 am.

As I am new here, could someone explain what is "PPT"? ( Looks like Dow "fix" may have run it's course...which company did they get to announce a big stock buy- back THIS time? )

mozel ( gold in a deflationary environment ) : It seems to me that the only way to judge the performance of gold, in a deflationary environment, is in relation to public debt.

In the 30's the overall financial position of the US was unassailable. In every conceivable way. The same cannot be said for today's position.

Given a severe downturn in business activity, the present and pleasant prospect of a balanced budget will disappear, poste haste, and the spector of servicing our humongous debt will suddenly loom like a big ugly as tax revenues dry up.

That is the situation which the fed will fight with all tools at its command. For if debt service is called into question, in any major nation, the pressure on its currency and a renewed interest in gold will be the result. IMO.

Damn right you were wise to sell them Silver stocks! SSRIF was off 14.5% earlier but has bounced back some. I don't have any mining shares at the moment ( except a PGU spec. play ) , but MIGHTY tempted to but some SSRIF at this level. I'll give it a few days to see where Silver's support level ends up, and then I think we'll see a resumption of the bull market.

No, there are no large strategic stockpiles of silver in the FEDS coffers. They even sold off all their last piles o' silver dollars that were sitting in treasury vaults, years ago.

PPT means "Plunge protection team". One of the tenets of Kitcoite Goldbugism is that a falling DOW means the market is doing what it's supposed to and a rising market is only rising because of some "manipulation" by Rubin, Grennspan, the Rockafeller / Rothschild conspirator cental bankers, et al.

Of course they also believe that the reverse is true for Gold. Gold dhould ALWAYS rise in any market and under all market conditions, but if it falls it's due to a "conspiracy" and market manipulation.

Just read Orwells "1984" and you'll understand the "doublethink" required to be a member of GoldBugism in good standing.

Dear LGB,

The problems in Silver started when Puetz made a statement here that he was very Bullish in it! A few days later, some downward pressure took over. We should have known better....

On a more serious note though, this lawsuit stuff it absolutely not valid and the real fundamentals will soon take a hold of the market again and we should all be ready for an agressive short covering once the "rumour hunters" will realize that yes indeed the Silver inventories are at their lowest in more than a decade.

And finally, WHERE IS THE HUGE FALL IN THE DOW TODAY?

Date: Fri Jan 09 1998 22:14
Puetz ( bpuetz@holli.com ) ID#222167:
Crystal Ball: This week was nothing in US stocks. Wait until next week , and the week after. 2 or 3 days of the DJIA down more than 1000 point is to be expected. The period between a full- moon and a new- moon is historically negative for a bubble- market - - once it bursts.

The full- moon on monday will be the start of the greatest stock market crash of all time. On Wall Strret Week tonight, the elves were still a bullish +4. Martin Zweig was still bullish. He believes - - as long as the Federal Reserve is easy, stocks will rise. That belief assumes that any individual entity can control the economy. If it is obvious, it is obviously wrong - - as Granville used to say. Deflation has the upper hand, and the Fed has lost control.

I'm still looking for the DJIA to crash to somewher between 2000 and 5000 before the end of January ( this year ) . Monday should be a serious down day. Maybe not 1000 points, but it could very well be.

Let it be known, I'm still very bearish on stocks, and very bullish on gold and silver.

STUDIO.R ( Which will it be for you my fellow Scarab? ) : Geeez. If I'm supposed to be a golden scarab; why in hell do I feel like a dung beatle. Huh?

Asia got slaughtered. Europe toasted. S.America burning as we speak. But we are UP??? Yeah, Right. We will be negative % today. Ganville will either move his capitulation level or finally admit we are lunch.

My guess is that we will close below 7500 today ( - 1% ) . The overseas markets are on fire and burning brightly. The captians of industry are away in CH swilling champaigne, plotting how to buy the world after the meltdown and how to get governments to saddle their people with the losses ( a la Indonesia, Korea and the USA ) . Nothing new under the sun.

As for gold, it is and always will be. If we stay in the 280 area for any length of time I will buy more ( where as LGB will buy paper! ) . Remember, buy the dips. Gold is in the trough, so BUY IT!

THE INGER LETTER FORECAST -

Gene Inger correctly asserts that the growing strength of the US dollar will eventually come back to haunt the American economy. ...every upward tick in the Dollar puts more future pricing risk into the domestic manufacturing sector versus foreign market competition.

Overall Inger remains bearish on the stock market.

To read the report, copy and paste ABOVE URL to your Internet call- up window ( Location ) , then hit ENTER.

LGB
I did hold those puts through that crash.
I missed that one unfortunately.
I was merely showing how they can explode in value.
Fortunately I more than covered my losses with my silver calls.
If you had bought S& P Feb 700 puts a few days ago @ 0.40
You could have sold them this morning for $1.50
For close on 350% profit.
These derivatives are explosive and can be used both ways.
Just like your SSRIF there is a time to buy and a time to sell.

Also one can't put a price on gold post crash.
Till after the crash, if it happens.
I would wait till then before stating what will be the outcome.
Just like some wouldn't believe that the dow could drop 40% .
Many wouldn't believe that gold could rise 40%

No point being smug till you've got something to be smug about.

Well of course you're absolutely correct and that was one of my greatest fears re Silver's downside potential. Puetz's late bullish call! ( Dammit Puetz, PLEASE PLEASE call for Silver's demise will ya? )

Now then Realistic, do you believe the inventory will continue to decline, and that the declines of the past few years are "real" or engineered by this rumored hedge fund buying et al?

I remeber a few months ago when RJ opined that the falling COMEX inventory was meaningless, and that there were no fundamnetals to support a bull in Silver. He also stated a few weeks ago that he'd sell into $6.00 silver all day, as it was a black hole with no support below.

What are we missin here? Have we not been mining and reclamiming 200 million ounces less than consumption for years? Has not the inventory been declkining at approximately that same rate since the huge rise in inventory in the 80's brought on by the high prices back then?

LGB: If sharefin said he made 400% on XAU puts, I believe him. I am much less experienced than he, and doubled my money on one of my gold puts - - the leverage is incredible! My current gold put is doing well too!
By the way, you have it all wrong! Both sharefin, myself and a fairly large number of Kitcoites all believe that gold stocks will go down every time the US markets get hit - - you must have misread sharefin's posts - - he is very explicit about this.
The reasoning is abit convuluted - - I must admit I only got it right after getting trounced. The rationale is that AG is a pro, and knows that rising gold prices are a sign of trouble with the equity markets - - flight to safety. So, if you want to prop the very weak US markets up, you trounce gold! Worldwide deflationary fears, droping cry0 and dropping silver also are pushing gold down. The business with the investigation of the silver corner may have been timed to coincide with a period of maximum uncertainly in the markets as well.
This process of knocking down the precious metal markets will continue until there is no need to prop up the equity markets.
Hope you sold your silver stocks, or covered yourself somehow.
I find it mindboggling how you have to outthink the market behavior these days - - with gold at twenty year lows when inflation is factored in!
I never would have guessed that gold would be this far from equilibrium - - but thats what happened during 1961- 1967, and 1975- 1977, isn't it?

"IF" this and "IF" that. Come now Nick, "If" wishes were horses than beggars would ride. Anyone can look back on the market and see their missed opportunity for huge gains any day of any week of any year in any market.

My point was ( and still is ) that almost NO ONE has the market timing savvy to trade in derivitaves and overcome the huge "vig" of premiums and comissions and spreads in the long run.

It;s just like the Casino's. They'll get their cut and everyone else will be the losers except for a VERY small chosen few. Not exactly a sound foundation for investment strategies IMNHO.

Course if you're a wealthy, multi millionaire market trader, or a massive mutual fund manager hedging your bets...maybe that's anotehr story. As for moi, I'm just a little guy controlling a mid 6 figure 401K and personal savings. Derivitaves make no sense in my position. They're almost a sure road to ruin, no matter the "potential" for massive gains.

PPT: Plunge Protection Team. Kitco bug puts space after "- " in URL, so cut- and- paste it from the subject line to the browser address. The URL is an article about the PPT.

January 12, 1998
Quake does not affect Chilean mines' production

SANTIAGO, Jan 12 ( Reuters ) - An earthquake that shook northern and central Chile Monday morning did not disrupt production at key mines, mine officials said.

The quake had a magnitude of 6.3 on the Richter scale and its epicenter was located in the sea 42 miles ( 70 kilometers ) west of the coastal town of Tongoy, which is about 280 miles ( 470 kms ) north of the capital of Santiago.

The quake hit an important mining region. Production at the Los Pelambres copper project, which is controlled by the Luksic family group, was normal, a mine official said.

The El Indio and Tambo gold complex, which Canada'a Barrick Gold controls, was also unaffected, a mine source said. Canada's Bema Gold Corp.'s Refugio gold mine said it suffered no disruptions either.

Production at Cia. Minera Dayton's gold mine, a subsidiary of Canada's Dayton Mining , continued as usual, a company official said.

Cia. Minera Carmen de Andacollo said its copper mine was unaffected. Canada's Tungsten International, state- owned copper processing company Enami and Cia. Minera del Pacifico control the mine.

Been sidelined with software probs. I have much scrolling to do.....has anyone said anything intelligent the last couple days??? Synopsis please.

lgb - real sorry 'bout yer niners.....NOT! Yahooooooooo! GO PACKERS!! YEEEESSS!!!!

Ted - I am a BIG nix fan when they play Seattle. h M!

Is anyone watching this Platinum trade?? It is going sideways completing it's pattern making. I have buy orders and am waiting for confirmation.....oh my......... ( disclaimers apply ) .....do your homework. We will continue the bull move, and gold will.....well, gold will be gold......... ( more ugh ) ..........uh huh.

away...to strap in for the move...go plat!

makincake

where is that cheesehead dude??

grant - if still looking for a dealer in DFW area, check out Dillon Gage in Dallas @ 15310 Dallas Pkwy, Suite 200

phone is ( 800 ) 375- 4653

This is one of the best dealers around, and I think will have plenty of stock for you.

How'd XAU Puts get into the mix? I was talking about Nick's S& P Puts

For morning U.S. coin prices see my 9:22 post.....If anyone needs location of major dealers near them ( instead of doing business by snail mail ) , I have a listing. Contact me at

Silverdolr@webtv.net

Offline until 17:00 today.

Looks like the 'faders' of the opening near S& P limit down made some very nice profits this morning. The PPT definitely also had the checkbook out. They can ill afford to let this sucker close below the 200 day moving average again today IMHO! Don't 'fade' the Klintonistas just yet. They DO own printing presses you know! 'Course, the day is yet young and 'possibilities' do still exist. One of which is that all this crash scene negativism could drive the stocks to new highs! Just for the pain!

LGB
Derivatives are awesome when they go your way.
Timing is one thing to master though.

I bought 10 Silver Mar $7 calls for US$1,250 when Silver was $5.23
Sold when silver hit $5.95 for US$5250
This was my first ever metals option trade.
Just like you I am learning.

Normally I only play local OZ puts and calls.
Plenty of times you can pick up 100% to 300%
Betting both ways - up or down.

One thing I do know, is that when I am smart enough
The profits will flow.
But you got to learn first.
Easy to knock and deride.
But harder to learn.

Perhaps you should do some learning and a bit less knocking.
Just think you could have picked up over 20 handles on the S& P today.
Now @ $250 a point = $5,000 a contact.
Hey, sounds like a good mornings work.
Wanna learn?
Or just deride?

I want to learn.

I also don't mind spending a K or 2.
Betting that this beast is going to fail.
Currently I have 10 Jan S& P 700's which are worthless and expire real soon.
And I have enough to buy the same next month and the month after.
And my OZ bank puts are doing well.
Just rolled out of my last ANZ puts @ 150% profit.
These derivatives do work.
You just got to learn what you are doing.
It doesn't matter what you trade.
So long as the buck come home.

OK Nick, I'm here to learn. What brokerage do you use for the metal options, and what kind of comissions, spreads, and premium, get paid on a trade like that? What do you suggest as a starting point for learning to trade them, prior to making plays?

My last stab at options was in 1981 when I bought Silver calls at $16.00 6 months out, when Silver was $10 at the time. I watched Silver climb to $14.00 in 3 months time, and only broke EVEN on the option strike price! This was with a big brokerage whom I shall not name, needless to say,

When the market move goes your way by 40% and you still not only don't make leveraged gains, but only break even after paying the huge Vig., you can see why I got soured on the whole affair!

The other possibility is that when Greenspan speaks at 1:00 PM EST, the market tanks. Wonder what the odds of that happening are? In any case, the stocks are currently poised for either a big break up or failure. Place your bets.

LGB: I misunderstood your earlier post to sharefin when you said that you didn't understand "Kitcoite gold bug" claims that the gold market would always go up when the general equities markets went down. I then assumed you were talking about gold index options, not sp- 500 options. I am now just breaking even again in my Dec 98 sp- 550 puts. I consider this money ( about $1000 ) throwaway or "funny" money, as I will not be upset if I never see it again. But - - if the sp- 500 drops more than 10% in the next 6 months or so - - I will make money.
I am not a pro trader, and my real money is in treasuries waiting for the right time to buy gold stocks - only a few months away now! You are very right that only the pros can consistently make money with options or futures. Takes years of experience to get as good as the OldMan or Trader Vic. I use them primarily for insurance, not speculation. You see - - I still have some precious metal investments left.

APH: Thanks for the note. I've survived getting in too early before. I haven't bailed yet but might before the day is out. I'm hoping to grow a new leg in the next hour or so.

fundaMETAList

Straddler ( Silver E- Wave Analysis ) : Ferget that ewaver stuff. Just follow the Cherokee and his Mighty Smokemobile. It's powered by 'good sh!t' and neo classic rock 'n roll ( probably reads a lot too ) . ..... 'n ya can't beat his late call ( put ) on silver. Hi Yo ...away.

LGB: That 1981 stuff sure sounds familiar too me. Could it be? Could you be my long lost evil twin? Actually, I share your silver pain today. Nothing like humble pie in large amounts.

fundaMETAList

JTF: The U.S. government owns a little less that 50 million ounces in its strategic stockpile. This was at 120 million ozs in the mid 1980's when Congress authorized its use in coining the Silver Eagle $ 1 bullion coins, and also all the commemorative coin programs, i.e. Olympics, dead presidents, etc. 99% of this silver is NEVER coming back on the bullion market at bar silver, thus removing the largest single silver overhang on the market. When this silver runs out, the U.S. Mint will have to buy silver on the market for their numismatic programs.

JTF: The U.S. government owns a little less that 50 million ounces in its strategic stockpile. This was at 120 million ozs in the mid 1980's when Congress authorized its use in coining the Silver Eagle $ 1 bullion coins, and also all the commemorative coin programs, i.e. Olympics, dead presidents, etc. 99% of this silver is NEVER coming back on the bullion market as bar silver, thus removing the largest single silver overhang on the market. When this silver runs out, the U.S. Mint will have to buy silver on the market for their numismatic programs.

LGB
I use a broker in Sydney @ $30 a trade each way plus US commissions.
I don't think I would be a good teacher, as I'm only learning.
But I do realise that well played, these positions are profitable.
I like to catch the trend with deep out of the money's with plenty of time.
Low cost with high risk/reward ratio's.
There are far better traders here at Kitco than me.

Got it JTF, but how high an insurance premium should one pay is my question?

As an avid poker player, I risk moolah on the table at the local card caino's all the time, however, when I'm going to bet or raise, I always know, or can at least make an educated guess about the following;

What are the odds I currently have the winning hand or will make my draw?
What odds is the pot giving me, vs, my bet size?
What are the "implied" pot odds if I make my hand and there are more cards to come?
What are the odds I'm being bluffed?
What are the odds I'll succeed if I bluff, vs, pot odds?
What do I already know about my opponents style and strategy?
What do I recall from 20 years play experience, reading and re- reading all the master works of strategy on poker, or the tens of thousands of computer simulation hands I've played?

Poker has a huge "luck" element, as we don't know what the next card will be. However, the same players consistently win regardless of the "luck" of the cards.

For me, poker is the only casino game I can ever win, because it's the only genuine game of skill where the "vig" can be overcome. ( with the exception of blackjack, but in Blackjack's case you can't win because the you're playing the house instead of other players, and therefore the house takes countermeasures against card counters, disallowing them a fair game ) .

I equate poker to playing the stock market and physical metals. You digest all avaiable data, and make your best educated guess. You never get "married" to a hand like Aces, when it becomes obvious you're beat. ( This is where GoldBugs have gone wrong for years ) .

Derivitaves, I equate to all other casino games. Sure you can make 66:1 or something like that on the Roulette wheel, but in the long run, the Casino will get their 6% , and you'll LOSE 6% of every dollar you wager, regradless of your rationale.

Simplistic maybe, but don't you think the analogy has some validity?

All: You may not be aware of this, but the end of February will be a 20 year high for lunar/solar driven tides. We will be having a total solar eclipse Feb 28, at the same time we have perihelion and aphelion. Simply put that means the sun and moon are in a position to pull on the earth with a nearly 20 year record force!
What is interesting about this tidal behavior is that NASA placed a seismometer on the moon, and recorded moon quakes that correlated with the phase of the moon. It does not take much thinking to go from this to quess that earthqaukes might ( like the moonquakes ) be correlated with the tidal pull of the moon and the sun - - so at tidal maxima - - - - .
Now, it is my impression that mainstream geophysicists agree that miniquakes increase in frequency during a full ( or new ) moon, but officially deny this for larger quakes. There is a web site ( at home - - sorry! ) that shows that major quakes over the last 100 years or so do correlate in the US!
The takehome message is that although major quakes are much more rare than miniquakes, the odds are measureably incresed during a full/new moon. And at a 20 year high ( Feb 28 ) they will be even more likely. So, there is a slightly increased risk of major quakes over the next month or so - - this fits with the over 6 quake in Santiago today and the China quake yesterday - - full moon today!
I haven't had a chance to review volcano data, so I can't comment on yesterday's Mt Etna activity.

PUETZ: Sorry to see your precictions not coming true again today. I really think you are right about all the indictors you use but perhaps have you forgotten to add into the mix the willingness of the Feds to print ( counterfeit ) money as needed? ( I've always found it peculiar that if I copy a $50 dollar bill on a laser printer and use it as currency it is a Federal crime, but if the Feds print it up themselves ( without anything backing it ) that's OK. ) Having said that, it is clear again from today's action that they will pump liquidity into the market at enormous speed to prevent your expected meltdown. As well they should. The result of the US markets tanking precipitously would be chaos of unimaginable scope. The Fed will, at least, try to help to bring it down gently.

well spotted, just gravity nothing really new but the calculations right?

Very interesting battle taking place with gc8g this morning. Look at that volume. Any comments????

CURRENCY TURMOIL IN 1998 by Milhouse

TAIWAN PREPARES FOR YUAN'S FALL - - JUST IN CASE

The economic supremo of Taiwan's ruling party, Lui Tai- ying, has challenged conventional wisdom on China's commitment to retaining a strong currency by warning of a MAJOR DROP IN THE YUAN BY JUNE.

Lui predicts a worst- case scenario of a 40 percent fall via a gradual devaluation, or a 25 percent one whack depreciation.

The Hong Kong Oracle has given another insightful and perhaps even alarming prediction of what currency turmoil to expect in Asia during 1998. It is definitely NOT a pretty picture. Milhouse gives his considered opinion on most major currencies and GOLD.

Gold will be the major beneficiary of the increasing currency
volatility wrought by EMU and the drive to inflate which is
already underway in almost every country. The reason it will
benefit is because it is the only form of money which exists
outside the financial system. As such, it is the only truly effective hedge against inflation. Any method of hedging against inflation which exists within the financial system involves a payment risk. Also, even if your non- gold hedge is 100% effective, you simply end up with a larger quantity of paper.

To read the report, copy and paste ABOVE URL to your Internet call- up window ( Location ) , then hit ENTER.

Some of the best seismologists in the world, and the most extensive field research and monitoring equipment, is based locally here at UCSC in Santa Cruz.

These guy's have stated repeatadly that ther eis no statistical correlation whatsoever, between major quakes and Lunar solar influences. And they have indeed studied the matter with extrremely powerful statistical algorythms. These guy's don't have any "ax" to grind on this. If they could find the predictive tools they're constantly seeking, they'd be the first to annouce them. In fact the last article I saw on this they voiced some surprise that there WASN'T any effect from solar, lunar gravitational pull "peaks", as we would reasonably expect there to be some. However, the data simply doesn't support it.

back to the 20th century now and away with eye of Newt...LGB

Feb 28 will be very strong tidal pull because of Solar perihelion and Lunar perigee. I will post the stock market correlations with the tides ( very long term only ) and the ElNino correlations at some other time. With the ElNinos, typically one has tidal minima one year before - - when you plot the data over the last 50 years. The current ElNino is near a 20 year tidal peak, so it doesn't fit the historical pattern.

Key reversal in Gold as a result of a lack of follow- through after reaching 19- year lows?

I have just returned from the office where I pump oil to give it away, along with a free collectors' tumbler and today....S& H stamps! I can report to you now that it is a living red hell on the front lines...and pushing a ball of gold up Giza, with oily feet, is a tiring task indeed. And....on top of that...swinging this damn Golden Sword Of Justice at mirages is also frustrating. Hhooooowwwweeeveeer,,,

I would rather be tired than dead. And that is what the Dow will be by tomorrow...the unholy houses will throw everything they have and more at this market today to keep it from creating more bear sentiment...they will fail in their quest. Gold is going to do nothing until Indo. defaults Thursday. I kinda' like this limb crap...what the hey?

Date: Mon Jan 12 1998 13:12
Realistic ( Gold ) ID#410194:

That would be nice and about time I may add.

Strad. Why should our market collapse? What are the fundamental forces that would precipitate it? Where are we now, at the moment we have the

* World's strongest economy
* Highest worker productivity
* Strong corporate profits
* Lowest unemployment level in decades
* Strong consumer confidence
* Diminishing if not disappearing deficit
* Extremely low inflation
* Strong dollar
* Low interest rates
* declining consumer indebtedness ( as of most recent Dec. numbers )
* Most advanced technological infrastructure
* Longest and and strongest economic expansion in history

You tell me Strad, do these things look like the end of the world is just round the corner for the U.S.? The Asina thing is a mere blip in the background noise of our radar screen. It'll slow our growth a bit, contribute to a negative balance of trade, but not much else.

I'm still salivating for a DOW arounf 6700. I'd love to see it get there on the current ill advised "sell" mania, but it'll never happen as long as Puetz keeps making his damn crash predictions!

Kiwi: I think so - - I checked Feb28 ( time of solar eclipse and it is near aphelion and nearly right on apogee. My tide program indicates a 20 year maximum at that time, and it gives the correct tide to the nearest tenth of a foot on any date I have chosen so far - - San Francisco in particular. My data closely correlate with Fred Crook's data on tidal activity cycles over the last 100 years as well.
You are a geophysicist or engineer. Why don't you check the astronomical data, and see if I got it right? The Farmer's almanac should also be predicting unusually high tides near Feb 28 if I did the analysis correctly. I'd be glad to get independent confirmation of this.
By the way, Mt St. Helens is grumlbing too! I am willing to speculate that volcanic activity is incresed slightly during periods of high tidal activity, but since spectacular volcanic activity is much more rare than earthquakes, more data will be needed before the corellation can be made. But - - in the meanwhile, I will be a bit more careful on a new moon - - especially when I visit friends in Calif.

The inventory situation in Silver is more than real!

These latest events could strengthen the bull scenario even more when people claiming that Silver can't increase in price when Gold goes down ( oh boy! ) will fail to prove anything substantial.

Once we will be past through the current nervousness over the Asian woes ( which I believe is in the process of stabilizing ) Silver will prove to be one of the best bull markets among anything that is tradeable.

Real, I think you're correct in your take on SIlver ( and the Asian crises ) . My chips are on the table. Come on Silver shorts, see my bet and raise me you Nimrods! I'll break ya! ( Where's Bunky Hunt when you need him? )

FIXED the POG so as to provide MAXIMUM CONFIDENCE in the U.S dollar. It is not a normal market in gold on a day like this, therefore your TA doesn't apply today...will see about tomorrow...

Nice hour dead space to mull over at lunch time. 7620! Ouch, I hit my head. Doesn't look like there's any enthusiasm a la post Oct'97 follow throughs after PPT interventions ... Less and less willingness to 'follow' each time this manipulation happens. One day it won't work at all. The markets are learning the tricks and what not.

LGB - Your strategy is to buy the dip, eh? How can you know that you will do that at a certain price level? Wouldn't you also look at other things in order to judge the relative 'bottom- ness'? What other things would you be looking at to confirm your buy signal? Market sentiment?? Liquidity ( interest rates, bond prices, relative movements of money into/out of the USA, etc ) ??

I can't believe a smart guy such as yourself would simply buy back in when the market got down to a certain price. That just doesn't seem that well informed.

BTW would appreciate some even handedness from you about 'goldbugs' and their views. Your post to shlomo did not reflect well on you. There are plenty of mainstream press discussions of PPT. Either your memory is shot , you are back- handing some here or you're lazy. Expect better of you than that.

Also, you seem to feel that everyone who does not see things your way is a 'goldbug'. That is a stupid term and a stupid generalization. Again, every time you generalize like that it makes you appear to be a 'knuckle dragger'. If that's what you want people to think of you as you're doing a pretty good job of it.

It seems that you just enjoy fighting and being contrary and so your appearance and posts here. Who are you fighting???

LGB: I learned many years ago to collect my own data, and never to take the offical gospel from the experts as the truth. What you didn't say is that there is an accepted correlation with miniquakes on the earth and on the moon. One respected geologist also disagrees with what you have just said, and wrote a book on this. He believes there is a correlation between the tides and major earthquakes. I should be able to find the reference at home. Just as that poor fellow who talked about ozone depletion, and the other poor fellow who was ridiculed about the "space snowballs", the establishment was wrong because they failed to look carefully enough at the data.

I do not expect anyone to believe me - - they can decide for themselves - - always better that way rather than taking the opinion of the experts as gospel. As it is in all things in life, those who wish to see will see, and those who wish not to will not. I prefer to test all premises/beliefs

Wish I had your confident and optimistic view of my abilities. Even more I wish we could clone programmers with experience. Dilbertesque pointy- haired managers are in control, and have their heads in places heads should never be. Denial is waning, but still rampant. Programmer salaries are increasing with the demand, but just as no amount of alchemy can turn lead into gold, no pay scale can transform neo- programmers into the short- supply desperately- needed battle- hardened death- march veterans overnight. The convoluted variations of Y2K bugs which newbies would naturally overlook plot on the graph as approaching infinity, and that doesn't include embedded chips which may ( or may not ) have problems in themselves.

Read http://www.zdnet.com/pcmag/insites/seymour/js_p.htm for a sobering look at the current state. Jim Seymour, regular columnist for PC Magazine, writes, "I would like to tell you that our hard work- - and the efforts of hundreds of Y2K- focused consulting firms around the world- - has pretty much worked, and that long before we hit the Y2K wall less than two years from now, the problems will be pretty much solved. I would like to tell you that- - but it would be a lie...I've avoided writing a Y2K Fears column until now because I find it unseemly to be associated with the sky- is- falling types. I've been confident that American business, indeed global business, would address this problem early, aggressively, effectively. I was wrong. They didn't. We didn't. "

Y2K may render gold worthless, it may skyrocket the price, or it may have no noticable effect. But it will not be a walk in the park. Sorry for another post on a 'tired' subject.

A few days ago you mentioned about a location where with a metal detector
a man could scrounge up a few gold nuggets. Is this property for sale or long term lease? If so, send me an email devoto@w3link.com. If not, what kind of price do you get for the nuggets. Thanx. chas

Is that you drinking your OJ today??? Holy Moses!! BIG MOVES today......must be bad weather or something......Whoa!

My OJ/Gold correlation chart is all but worthless now ;- ) ) !

Anybody with news on OJ?? The Golden drink...

away...to 'concentrate'



Can the US market go south? Certaijnly and simply because of the old fundamental valuation model. When one buys a stock, one can profit from dividends or capital gains from retained earnings, both of which are based on future cash flows of the company. None of this depends on immediate economic conditions but on future expectations.

Current equity prices are discounting just wonderful times ahead. The BCA suggest that they are discounting 12% or more earniing growth in the forseeable future. If the required rate of return on capital reverts to the historical norm of 7% with current rates, with 7% earning growth, I personally calculate the value of the SNP at about 400. If earnings are flat and don't grow - you don't want to know the value of the SNP!

For now the boys can play. When and if the SNP closes under the 120 day ma. for one week consectutively, it will be asta la vista. For now enjoy the vol.

I bought silver today with a quick stop for fun to see if the longer trend holds. We'll see.

It seems to be OK for the Fed to buy
futures in order to stop a market decline,
but it's time for legal action when a
private party tries a silver corner.

Lawyers Say Silver
Market Manipulated

US lawyers are preparing to
launch a class action suit alleging
that the silver market is being
manipulated to drive prices
higher, according to Martin
Armstrong, director of Princeton
Economics Institute and a
commodity fund manager.

Mr Armstrong said he had been
asked by the lawyers to act as an
expert witness for the plaintiffs,
but had not yet agreed to do so.
However, he did believe someone
- he did not know who - was
attempting to manipulate the
silver market.

Worries about a potential law suit,
or a Commodities Futures Trading
Commission investigation, caused
a wave of selling of silver by US
funds at the end of last week. The
price fell by 5 per cent on
Thursday and by another 1 per
cent on Friday to close in London
at $5.69 a troy ounce. In
December silver touched an
eight- year high of $6.19. Silver is
mainly used in photographic
materials, jewellery and
silverware and a variety of
electronic and electrical
applications.

The Hunt brothers attempted to
corner the silver market in
1979- 80, forcing the metal's price
up from $6 an ounce to $50 an
ounce in less than a year. The
attempt failed in early 1980 and
prices collapsed, handing the
brothers a $1bn loss.

Asked whether the CFTC was
investigating silver market
activity, an official said it never
commented on such rumours.

Jeffrey Christian, managing
director of the New York- based
CPM consultancy group, said his
inquiries indicated a CFTC probe
was unlikely. "The opinions
behind the law suit seem
incredibly ill- informed," Mr
Christian added. "There are no
substantive grounds for these
allegations." Nevertheless,
suggestions that something
untoward was happening in the
silver market surfaced some
months ago. In November Ted
Arnold, metals specialist at the
Merrill Lynch group, suggested
that a syndicate including US
investment funds and two bullion
banks were buying up silver in the
hope of pushing the price up to $8
or $9 an ounce.

"The syndicate already controls a
large quantity of silver which has
driven New York commodity
market stocks to a 12- year low,"
Mr Arnold said. "We think the
consortium is still prepared to
throw in much more money to
push prices higher over time. But
against that, the fundamentals on
silver supply continue to turn
bearish."

Mr Armstrong said some in the
industry believed about $3bn had
been put into the scheme so far.
He said he had been asked by the
law firm mounting the suit not to
reveal its identity.

Financial Times, Jan. 12, 1998

I think the 'nimrods' already took the wind out of your sails. It has reached it's zenith for the year.......$6.00+ is all you get. 7 dollars is a dream. Ya better sell to make your 34% or whatever number you come up with today.

away

nimrod

LGB: The PPT is not a big conspiratorial secret along the lines of Lyndon LaRouch and the Men in Black -  la Art Bell. The PPT has been written up numerous times on the front page of the LA Times Business section in recent years. They clearly stated that in times of liquidity crises they would intervene to prop up the markets. From looking at today's market activity, do you honestly think that after such a massive tanking of the Asian and European markets that US investors would ( upon waking to a DOW down 130+ points ) sumarily rush out and buy up everything in sight without a little nudge in that direction by the Feds? One thing I've learned from watching the markets is that people move like a herd. Logic and rationality are not a big part of the equasion. With the Fed's ability to counterfeit as much money as they like, any time they like, it behooves them to act as the shepherd to prevent the herd from panicking and plunging off a cliff.
Would you be so kind as to address what I wrote to you yesterday at 17:12? That one is ( if I remember correctly ) the third posting relating to a variety economic issues that I've addressed specifically to you in the past several weeks that you've failed to comment on. Each time, I would have appreciated your input. I assume you missed them as you are not one to dodge tough questions. I sincerely want to read your reply. Thanks.

I tried to post the previous and it didn't go through. In the interim I discovered your post to me regarding Puetz. All the points you raise have very strong counter arguements. Sadly, I'm not the best equipped to make them because I don't keep running track of the supportive numbers. I invite someone more savvy with that data than I to post a refutation here soon. If no one does, I'll attempt it myself. ( Please, someone, help me out here - OK? )

With regard to silver, I'm in the same boat as you are. However, I'm certain that this whole thing is a temporary thing brought about by Merrill Lynch and others who want Silver down in order to get on board at a lower price. There is NO substance to the lawsuit rumors and even if there were - so what? Besides, the best supporting evidencce for a true shortage of silver supplies can be found by looking at the lease rates - which went up yet again last night. Back in May of 97 ( not that long ago ) lease rates were .84 for one month rates. Historically they seem to hover around 1% . Today one month lease rates are % 7.09. That tells me that the people who need it are willing to pay a pretty steep premium to get it. That premium keeps going up. Silver will too.

Just a little satirical generalization Allen. As to an arbitrary "dipster" buyback number, I don't have a hard and fast number, 6700 is one of my targets but it's part of a "range". I may very well start back in at 7200 or so, depending on a number of other factors, not the least of which is what genuine effect the Asina crises is having on our prospects.

Also, I'd never thrust 100% of my MMF, or personal savings into the market in one move. I'll start with 5% , when I like the DOW's value level, and then dollar cost average back in based on conditions as they occur.

JTF, welll we'll see. I live in "Earthquake country" an extremely seismically active place. UCSC has ongoing monitoring on the San Andreas, inlcuding highly precitabl portions such as the segment just south of us around Hollistor which averages a moderately large quake every 22 years or so. They're looking hard for correlation data for predictive purposes.

Course, the more data we get the better. This upcoming event can only help us add to the database. My intuition tells me there ought to be a correlation. But then I'm not a geologist or seismologist. Apparently, water table changes, have a much stronger effect than just about anything else we're aware of.

LGB: You are asking the wrong person. I don't have any of that fancy options priceing software - - can't afford it! But - - I can tell you that many people are buying options as insurance for their investments in the market. My investment in the market is virtually nothing - - so I need very little insurance. But - - if the markets do correct, that options insurance will not work as planned - - repeating the derivatives insurance fiasco of the 1987 crash.
Your question is more relevent to all of those banks all over the world who have been using options insurance, or simply speculating - - like Barings. That's where much of the world wide banking losses are coming from - - the rules changed on the odds calculations. As you probably know the bank downgrades now include some very large US banks. It may take a few months before all of these losses are known.

LGB, decided to call you on your half- truths, repeat of disinformation and lies. You wrote, and I respond:

* World's strongest economy = = Powered exclusively by credit cards, home equity mortgages and Fedral Reserve forced lowering of intetrest rates. This is *NO WAY* to build a stable, sustainable future. Witness South East Asian inferno. Enough said.

* Highest worker productivity = = Cooked numbers. Do you have a specific industry in mind LGB? Tacos produced- per- minute at a Taco Bell? It sure as hell isn't software engineering! You cite no authority, therefore I as gratuitously dismiss you statement.

* Strong corporate profits = = There can be no doubt of this! The CEO's are in MONEY HEAVEN with multi- million dollar salaries. But unless you are a software worker, those profits haven't benefited the "common man". This is the "Anti- Trickledown Theory of It's Good to be King". Hey, any of you gotten raises commensurate with those strong corporate profits!

* Lowest unemployment level in decades = = Well, if you count all the minimum wage, go- no- where, dead- end service jobs that are filled ( Stop- N- Go, Seven- Eleven, grocery sacker, car wiper, Taco Bell taco maker ) , and discount the millions of Americans in prison, you may be right. But the number is meaningless as calculated.

* Strong consumer confidence = = Oh really? This was not proven by Christmas sales figures. My coworkers haven't been buying any big- ticket items - just paying on their pyramid of credit card debt!

* Diminishing if not disappearing deficit = = What a LIE. The US Treasaury "Debt to the Penny" states that Fiscal Year 1997 Deficit was $180 BILLION dollars, not the $25 billion parroted by the press. But really, I do not expect you to take the effort to vist the Treasury page and educate yuorself. You're here to deceive.

* Extremely low inflation = = I run a keep running list of 31 food/consumable items I must purchase weekly, and in 1997 that ran up approx. 11% . Hardly low- inflation! Again, if the US Gov. cooks the numbers and use selective counting, they can spin it anyway they want.
Anyone here think prices in the grocery stores are getting LESS? And yet they tell us, no swear to us that inflation is % 2!

* Strong dollar = = Relative to the other worthless currencies - you bet!
Will it remain so? We shall see what a billion burned South East Asians do. And the Euro.

* Low interest rates = = Hmmm. My credit card interest rates vary from 19% to 13% . Don't **most** people use credit cards these days, LGB? That's the difference between the touted low interest rates ( 5% - 6% ) and the REAL rates we the people pay ( 13% - 23% ) .

* declining consumer indebtedness = = Fine deception, LGB! You cite ONE month's small change, and IGNORE years worth of INCREASING consumer bankruptcy. Yesss, I see: if you've declared bankrupcty, you have no indebtedness! Until you can start the cycle again!

* Most advanced technological infrastructure = = Uh. This is a plus? We will see come January 1, 2000.

* Longest and and strongest economic expansion in history = = The last "longest and strongest economic expansion" ended in 1929. Thanks for the reminder.

Feel free to respond, if you are able.

Uh Oh Strad, I see Timothy Mcveigh's disciple is here now and I am picky about the company I keep. I promise to check that 17:12 of yesterday and respond back later..back to rocket science for now...

* It will take $300- $600 billion worldwide for everyone to prepare for the Y2K, according to Gartner Group Inc., a Stamford, Conn.- based research firm.

* Current estimates are that it will cost $3.8 billion for the federal government to prepare. Chase Manhattan Corp., the nation's biggest banking firm, expects to spend $260 million.

* It's estimated that it will take 600,000 "qualified" programmers, system analysts and testers to solve the Y2K problem.

* Litigation associated with failure to solve the problems regarding Y2K is expected to cost $1 trillion - $3 trillion.

* As a result of the change, economists predict a recession.

* On average, Y2K projects will take 28 months to complete. We have less than 24 months remaining.

* New York City has halted information technologies projects there, so that it can complete the Y2K activities on time.

* The New York Stock Exchange is considering a proposal to halt trading on Friday, Dec. 31, 1999, and Monday, Jan. 3, 2000, to head off any potential problems due to the millennium bug.

* According to Federal reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, 99 percent readiness for the Y2K is not ready enough.

Studio R: I too have a golden sword. But it leaves a green residue on my fingers. Probably less efficacious than yours. ...... I operate under another handicap as well ...... I am not allowed to touch sharp objects. Shrinks orders ...... or something like that.

the usda is going to release their weekly export numbers
for the grains tomorrow......they are predicting sharp
drops in beans......and less severe drops in corn and
wheat.......still very bearish for the grains...........
last day to get these cheap put options..........

the grain train is heading south.........ALLABOARD! last call......

beans going to 550 imnsho........5750 may soybean puts are $75.00!!!!
230 may corn puts.....cheap.....

- - - - - false rally in stocks.........first ripple upon our shores was
just that........a ripple......the waves that generated the ripple
are still in deep water and not observable......wait until they meet
the shallows........a 1/2" midget, turns into a 1000' wave, with a pair
of grinning banshees ( mr chaos and bubba flux ) riding the crest on
sex- waxed surf- boards........their skegs are razor sharp and will be
used to mangle any peopleo that are fortunate enough to survive the
tsunammi..........poor peopleo......they don't know.......the peopleo....

cherokee!;...buying- to- sell- - - - the- bean- that- is.........ALLABOARD..

LGB: I do want to take a stab at one of your points while I wait for someone else to help rebut your assertions. The shringking budget deficit was dealt with very exetnsively on the front page of the Los Angeles Times ( Not merely the front page of the Business section but page A1 ) about a week ago, where the news article reported that the vaulted demise of the budget deficit was predicated on the supposition that the stock market would continue to rise at a 20 % rate which would then generate enough in capital gains to wipe out the deficit. ( A case of counting your Pterodactyl eggs before they hatch! ) The point of the article was that both Dems and Repubs need to reconsider before they go around spending money that isn't likely to show up. Add to that the fact that Clinton has figured most of the deficit into either "off- budget" items like Social Security or transferred much of it into short- term instruments with a lower interest rate but much higher loss potential and the possiblility for disaster arises just from that one point alone.

Spud X Poorboys = Timothy McVeigh Squared

Palladium is $US223 and going up. Silver is down within 35 cents of the $5.20 I mentioned previously but well before February the 15th. Sunshine has been down to 7/8 earlier today.

LGB anyone is a genius in a bull market. Knowing you're a short term phenomenom I hope that you saw this coming last month and dumped your Sunshine at $1& 1/16. But you didn't did you? And its too late now...people who act on strong emotions get chewed up and spit out by the metals stock market. IMHO

Silver down to $5.50. :- (

Well the battle rages on. Gc8g highest volume in some time. For the moment the shorts are winning as per usual. If ANOTHER is real his forces are having quite a time of it. ??? Maybe oil and BIS have met their match??? Paper and computer alogrithms seem to have the upper hand. Normally gold is driven down hard in the last part of the trading day, so volume could skyrocket if these forces are serious.

How many children in South East Asia are going hungry now, LGB thanks to your support of a corrupt system.

Enjoy dinner this evening.

Oh, and please provide rebutal to my responses.

Complacent fiat paper imperialists say:

*US has World's strongest economy
* Highest worker productivity
* Strong corporate profits
* Lowest unemployment level in decades
* Strong consumer confidence
* Diminishing if not disappearing deficit
* Extremely low inflation
* Strong dollar
* Low interest rates
* declining consumer indebtedness ( as of most recent Dec. numbers )
* Most advanced technological infrastructure
* Longest and and strongest economic expansion in history

How many of the above were also true in 1929- 30 when the US was still a creditor nation as well ? The imperialistic combination of reserve fiat paper power via FR, IMF, and foreign aid and gunboat diplomacy ( i.e. Cohen in Indonesia ) is potent and I don't count it out yet. But,then, what is its historically proven technique for dealing with deflation ? I don't know of any. And for those into after effects, be advised every war is followed by depression and the Cold War was big and long in financial terms. I think hindsight will be that fiat currency and bonds and like instruments cannot co- exist because political flows of "funds" eventually expand to dwarf and distort trade and traditional investment connections with reality ( e.g. political flow of $US 50 billion to Mexico ) .

Haggis... I, too, would not be surprised to see a total nationalisation of gold production in Australia. The "bloke disease", socialism, has infected down under and over here as well. It's just that because "the system" is Corporate Socialism, people in denial can focus on the corporate side of it and keep up the fiction that capitalism did not expire when paper replaced gold as currency. Gold is capital. Paper is vegetable. Gold is freedom. Paper is slavery.

Excuse the dumb questions, but I'm trying to learn. In a few words, what are the mechanics used by the Fed to prop up the equity markets? Are they going long S& P futures? Is the money they create added to the national debt to be paid by us suckers, the taxpayers?

There have been many occasions which appeared to be obvious manipulation; e.g., that Monday in October, 1997, and back in October, 1987. The last trading day of 1997 also looked suspicious to me. The return for the year was less than 20% until the end of the day when the Dow jumped enough to provide a 20% + return for the third straight time. Since then "3 straight years of 20% + returns" seems to be the battle cry of the bulls. This nice round number should help to attract more in- flows and provide a little solace to the average investor who says he expects 34% per year.

If an angelic Fed can manipulate the markets up what's to prevent an evil Fed from manipulating it down? Thanks.

It affords me great joy and pride to annouce to my fellow Kitcoites ( Scarabs ) that the The Studio.R oil co. today had excellent fourth quarter ( calendar ) earnings as a direct result of its gold investment. Since Studio.R invested his company's cash and his own personal cash in hoardes of gold, the company has not had the funds necessary to drill dry holes and purchase uneconomic oil production packages. This stellar ( sheller ) performance once again proves the remarkable gift of Studio.R to be right for the wrong reasons and to be always out- of- step with the corollary contrarian juxtapositioned antithesis.

LGB: Equating anyone on Kitco to the likes of that vicious, evil, piece of pond scum, Timothy McVeigh is cruel, hyperbolic, unnecessary, counterproductive, inflamatory, and beneath the new and improved LGB of 1998. I'm not 100% certain who's right, but dismissing him as you did only makes your arguements seem tenuous. I look forward to your considered reply to my points and to your reply to the counter- arguements raised by Spud. Many thanks.

Only just now back up and running. It's amazing how "out of it" you feel when you're "out of it".

Notice that when I responded to and rebutted LGB's points, point for point, and requested his rebuttal, he instead attempts to divert public attention by tossing out an emotional handgrenade.

This merely reveals LGB for what he is - a tempermental, spoiled, manipulaitve, emotionally- challenged individual, completely uninterested in fair debate.

Once again, enjoy your dinner, LGB, as you watch those scenes of misery from South East Asian families flowing across the TV screen. Sip some Spumanti. Savor the fine steak. Pat the rent- a- date on the behind. And above all, smile, and say "ain't life great".

You have my pity.

DAVE IN CO: Y'know, I should have saved the articles as I don't recall the mechanism for propping up the market that it spelled out. If I put everything aside that I find fascinating, the whole house would be stacked up with paper. There is nothing to prevent an evil Fed from dropping the market except that it is not in their best interest to create international financial turmoil. I don't think it takes all that much to turn public perception in one direction or another - only evidence of a turn in direction. From a low, for instance, just a bit of money in a few key issues should do it and then short covering and new buying can take care of the rest. I'm certainly no big maven on these things. Perhaps someone knows the mechanics better than I.

Out of respect for my friends and the many other fine people who lost their lives and loved ones in the bombing here, please do not say t.v.'s name....for it is better that he simply doesn't exist. thank you.

Weakness showing up in the stocks? Looks like a bit of retest a bit lower. I think they should hope this closes UP. ELSE, drop- dead is a whole lot closer! Even the PPT would have a hard time getting in through the packed theatre doors once 'fire' has been yelled inside.

Did anyone notice the gold dec 98 trade that went across a little while ago? Up $10.20. That's up 10 dollars 20. What's up? ANOTHER? BIS?

long- time lurker pitching in $.02

Wile E

We have McVeigh and Nichols put away but what does the government plan to do about the other John Does who could do it again?

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a63250.htm

Strad Master: Thanks.

oops. looks like it was a mistake on the futuresource comex quotes page. sorry all.

Wile E

see ... http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980112/co_vista_l_1.html

LGB: I just got through re- reading Spud's response to you and found nothing in it that warranted such an attack. He refuted you point for point and asked that you rebut him. That's what makes for debate and reasoned dialogue. It's ofen been pointed out that when someone's arguements are on thin ice, the easiest defense is an ad hominum attack. If you've had a past history of dispute with Spud that's between you and him ( I, mercifully, missed it ) but those of us on this forum who want to learn and who are attempting to separate facts from speculations aren't served by name- calling. Especially, when the names called are SO inflamatory as to immediately divert attention from the points being discussed. Don't disappoint me. Thanks.

The so very obvious Gold market today.

Up..Up...Up....UP.....DOWN with a spike at the end.

Close it just a little off and pick up all those Gold shares in the last

1.5 hours of trading.What a hoot!!The reversal is close at hand.They will

start to cover as soon as they have enough Gold shares to make a killing

on the the way up.Too easy.Go Gold!Go LGB!Please.

As you can see GOLD could NOT move up to the positive AT ALL today. Looking at GC8G a battle seemed to rage but the BEARS showed NO fear and ANOTHER's team lacked resolve.

ANOTHER it's time to bring us up to date and PLEASE don't use JAPAN's approach of trying to talk it up. You finally made a definite call and it is strating to look like you are going to get your head handed to you on a paper platter. Welcome to the club.

As someone had already pointed out, everytime ANOTHER post the price of gold drops the next day. Well, ANOTHER has kept this record.

LGB: See?

Dow couldn't hold a gain for the day is slipping into negative territory during the final hour of the session. More to follow.

GOLD PRICE SOARING IN ASIAN CURRENCIES

Tsunami Tidal Wave of Stock Market Loses Wash Over Asia

During the last six months of currency chaos and stock market
havoc - both which continue as I speak - the average citizen of
the average country of this Southeast Asia, who had the foresight of converting his currency into GOLD, would now be about 76% RICHER - reflecting the average increase in gold's value in the five besieged paper currencies.

Five charts showing the explosive price rise in Asian currencies ( Indonesia, Korea, Thailand, Malaysia & the Philippines ) will indeed convince even the most skeptical that only GOLD is providing a safe harbor for local investors. The rising gold price trend in local currencies is literally ORBITAL.

Regrettably, most Asians must RELEARN the universal and timeless truism: GOLD IS THE ULTIMATE STANDARD OF VALUE, and paper is just paper!

To read the report, copy and paste ABOVE URL to your Internet call- up window ( Location or Go To ) , then hit ENTER.

STUDIO R: My heart goes out to you. As a fellow musician I sometimes like to imagine that we are somehow a bit more exquisitely sensitive to the pains of life, but it isn't true. The senseless loss of a loved one can only cause unending agony for those left behind - whether musician or engineer. My deepest sympathies.

SpudMaster: I like your 14:25 point. What I like is that it does keep us on our toes! My take on all of this is that there is a plus side to these dialogues - - these discussions help us clarify our perception of the truth, and help us better separate the truths from the untruths. There was a time I believed everything I was told, but I now know better, and try to cross correlate all the facts before actually "storing" them. This is much better, as we live in a sea of disinformation.

Kitco, by comparison, is a little island, and our information, while highly relevant, does not tell us how the markets will perform, only how they might if the information we have was generally available. I think this is part of the reason why the US markets seem to behave in a somewhat "delayed" pattern. The Kitco discussants tend to see things weeks to months in advance.

last post. From your past post its seems that there is a class problem here. Do you not enjoy a fine steak or good Spumanti? I think LBG see's the misery the same as most of us. He "ain't doing to bad" if he is indeed doing as you say. Spend some of that Gold,get a good steak & spumanti...enjoy while you can..Its not a dress rehearsal.

just down- linked from the up- link with
cosmic debris from hale- bopp.....found
semi- sentient sloth- like critters......they were chanting

.....LGB ( ito ) ......LGBITO....we have a place for you'n'karlito..to us.

.....LGBITO........LGBITO....we have a place for you'n'karlito...to us...

- - - - - - - don't- be- afraid- of- the- lawnmower- blade- - - - - -

cherokee!;....pushing- the- lawnmower- to- the- right- - - - - - - - look- out!!!

By God, I've had enough! As my fellow Hoosier, HOOSIER says, buy a coin a week. I'm heading out to the coin shop NOW to get TWO Maple Leafs ( Leaves? ) . F- - - this "turn in your Gold to the Government that got you into this mess in the first place" crap! If them BIS buyers and ANOTHER won't get off their sorry fat asses and buy Gold, then it's up to us! Auric A- W- A- Y...to do my patriotic duty.

By buying two beautiful Maple Leafs ( sp ) you have swiftly swung the Golden Sword of Justice!!! May the brave AURIC live and prosper for all time! Salud!

Doctors give new meat warning
The British Medical Association has said every piece of raw meat should be treated as a potential source of food poisoning
http://news.bbc.co.uk/

Vronsky: Good point. We have seen that the "Store of Value" notion need not be true in anyone's lifetime. We have seen that the "gold holds up in a Depression" notion was true in the '30's because of US Gov intervention. Now an interesting, valuable and USEFUL issue is ready for examination. Has the soaring price been in terms of Gold OR the US$. What are the pros and cons?

Let us also not forget those who died at Waco.

FWIW ABX covered at close, XAU should bottom temp.at 60 expect
a bounce tomorrow for a couple of days.

The volume I'm getting is 33729. The same as at 10 am. Last several days it has been the same volume at 8pm as at 10 - 11 am. What's up?? If you would prefer, email is devoto@w3link.com- - - - thanx

I just now snapped to the meaning of Strad...guess I've been around Strats way too long. Duh! Thanks amigo for your kind words and I probably do cry too much to be a man. But I laugh a lot too! Do you really have an Antonius? Talk about pure gold.

STUDIO R; Yup! E- mail me and we'll chat. Strad1@idt.net

Gold stocks smashed again today, although bullion down just 20 cents. Very bad action!

All: I apologize for adding to the dialogues with LGB today. I did not see his tasteless posts until a few minutes ago. I should know better - I only encouraged him.

All: I apologize for adding to the dialogues with LGB today. I did not see his tasteless posts until a few minutes ago. I should know better - I only encouraged him.

All: I apologize for adding to the dialogues with LGB today. I did not see his tasteless posts until a few minutes ago. I should know better - I only encouraged him.

Waco was just as sad a story as OKC...I agree with your plea.

EB:...I had a big thirst for the Golden Liquid!!!!!!!!!!! YEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWW!!!!

Bad loans at Japanese banks total 590 billion dollars


TOKYO, Jan 12 ( AFP ) - Bad loans at Japanese banks totalled
76.708 trillion yen ( 590 billion dollars ) at the end of September
under revised reporting standards, the finance ministry said
Monday.
Under the previous method, the ministry said bad loans extended
by Japanese banks at the end of September stood at 28.1 trillion yen
( 211 billion dollars ) .
The new data, showing banks' outstanding loans categorised
according to prospects of repayment, are "part of the ministry's
efforts to step up information disclosure," a senior ministry
official said.
The revised figure is equivalent to about 16 percent of Japan's
real gross domestic product in the latest reporting year to March
1997.
It is based on reports from major nationwide comercial banks,
long- term credit banks, trust banks, and regional banks.
Of the total, the ministry said 2.7 trillion yen was
unrecoverable, and 8.7 trillion yen might be unrecoverable.
The largest portion, 65.3 trillion yen, was comprised of loans
which required "risk management", the ministry said.
The finance ministry said the unrecoverable debt of 2.7 trillion
yen would require that banks fully write off these loans.

FWIW ABX covered at close, XAU should bottom temp.at 60 expect
a bounce tomorrow for a couple of days.

Only wanted to say that once

Canada steps up battle in big freeze
MONTREAL, Jan. 12 ( UPI ) - - Troops and civilian power workers are
engaged in an all- out battle to restore heating to more than 625,000
utility customers in Montreal, hit by last week's ice storm.
Some 11,400 federal troops are out in Quebec and eastern Ontario,
where the ice storm knocked down some 100 utility pylons and snapped
power lines in about 500 places, leaving about 3 million people without
heating.
With temperatures expected to drop to minus four Fahrenheit ( minus 20 Celsius ) , the authorities are stepping up efforts to get people to move out of unheated homes, but some have been resisting.
The death toll in the disaster has risen to 15, after a Bell Canada employee died when he fell from a transmission tower. Earlier, one woman
was killed by falling ice.
Others have succumbed to toxic fumes and fires as homeowners
attempted to heat their houses with make- shift devices.
Quebec Premier Lucien Bouchard has appealed to Quebecers who have
electricity to share their homes with those who do not. It may take days
to restore power to all areas hit by the disaster.
Downtown Montreal has been declared generally off- limits, as city
crews attempt to remove mountains of frozen ice and snow from the
streets and buildings.
Businesses in downtown Montreal have been asked to remain closed
today.
Troops, police and firefighters are going door to door in
neighborhoods still without power, urging people to evacuate to
shelters, where tens of thousands spent Sunday night in shelters.
Utility crews from Pennsylvania, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and a team from Detroit, are assisting local crews at Hydro Quebec, the
provincial utility.
The U.S. Air Force has sent transport aircraft to assist in moving troops and equipment from every part of Canada.

If nonperforming Japanese loans were at 590 Billion at the end of September, I wonder what it is at now. Especially if one considers the currency devaluations and stock market plunges of their customers. Perhaps it is as high as 800 Billion. Then think of what they're keeping secret. Since we know they have a propensity for doing that. I bet they're a trillion in the hole.

Just got inside so know nothin about nothin~~~~~~duh- - - Away ta CNBCland

We all are patiently awaiting your point- by- point rebuttal.

My sympathy to those slighted by LGB's tasteless & cruel remarks concerning the mass murderer t.Mcv.

Emerald Heights: All of us, I assume, enjoy fine food. Paying for it through the misfortune & exploitiation of others ( SEA ) , however, ruins the taste. I have yet to hear LGB or Karlito express sorrow for what is going on in SEA, the direct result of the very system of paper manipulation they champion. Maybe I missed their lament.

excellent rally in stocks today.......

look at the declines / advances - - - - - way more declining.....

look at the highs / lows - - - - - - - way more new lows than highs.....

very strong fundamentals........what a buying opportunity............
good signs every- where.......buy, buy, buy.........dippity- doers....

Pardon me boys ( is this the Chattanooga choochoo ) , oh excuse me, what I meant to say was, whenever I see someone constantly spouting hate rhetoric based in class envy, hatred of country, embracing of guns as part of solution to economic woes, etc etc. I do indeed think of Timothy McVeigh, and I offer no apologies for it. I find such rhetoric, dangerous, and call it what it is. I'll put the sum totality of my posts on Kitco next to SPuds ANY day and then you tell ME who spouts the invective, class/race baiting with zeal....

My reference Strad. was not to this PARTICULAR post of Spudbuster's, but many previous posts. As to not answering his silly point by point analysis, I've answered it too many times, and been called redundant too often already. I agree some Govt. figures are not accurate or trustworthy, inflation for example, and are built on faulty premises.

Nonetheless, if we're going to have an intelligent discussion on such matters, anecdotal evidence has far less meaning than the total body of financial data released by economists, Govt. agencies, thinktank institutions, etc. Let's see Spud produce some reliable statistics and quote their source if he believes all other numbers, such as unemployment rates are manufactured. Only a complete moron or someone that never leaves home, could believe that the job base of QUALITY jobs hasn't increased steadily for years, for example, no matter what data you choose.

For anyone to state that we're in a "Taco Bell" economy, and that our lives are terrible, opressed, the cause of all the world's suffering, etc etc, ad nauseum, indicates that the person is living on some other planet than the one I am.

STrad, as to yesterday's questions my answer is quite simply, yes, I believe we would not have the level of economic development we have if we hadn't had fiat currency and the FED's current monetary policy. Windows 95 would be a mere gleam in Bill Gates eye, and we'd still be using advanced versions of TI calculators instead of the Internet.

Like it or not, it's debt and monetary expansion that has in large part fueled our prosperity, economic growth, and technology breakthroughs. The problem in Asia, is that debt and economy expansion was carried way too far. Investing in projects with no viable chance for success.

As to Spuds ridiculous assertions that little Asian children are now going to starve in exploitation due to the "evvvvviiilll" Americans like myself, he certainly hasn't studied his world history has he?

Pre fiat currency, pre industrialized Asian economies wrought mass starvation and poverty on an incredibly grand scale before the advent of current policy and foreign capital infusions. As I've said a million times here ( give or take a few ) , ask an Asian at the END of this current crises whether he's better off now, or would have preferred the "good old days" of starvation, disease, rice paddy farming ( for the lucky ones ) , and a per capita income of $150 or so annually.

The same applies here in the U.S., albeit on a grander scale. The wealthy folks that SPUD so hates and envies, are the ONLY ones who would truly not suffer in the economic conditions of the "good old days" before the enterpreneurs and "little guys" were given a decent chance to have homes, businesses, and jobs through capital creation.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist ( though I happen to be one ) to look back a few decades and beyond, and measure "Quality of life" for those generations that came before us.

The whining complainers of today, claim to be rooted in historical facts, yet have no idea apparently, what the economic conditions were for those who lived on the "Good old" metals backed currency days. The SPUDS of the world, are simply envious of other's achievemnts and hope to see it all collapse so they can feel "vindicated" for their embittered views.

Without getting too cute regarding my concise and short response - What would U call the men of the 1770's from the side of the British ? Were they not "Timothy McVeigh's" ?

Nothing wrong with speaking the truth and exposing the government ( whose ever it may be ) for injustice. Since I am not on the jury - I know not the guilt or innonence of Mr. McVeigh and I refuse to believe the media/government position.

Innocent until proven guilty by a jury of peers...

LSteve 'n Studio R: Let's not forget the precursor to both of those. Ruby Ridge. Where the fbi shot a mother in the face and the only thing she was holding was her child. ....... We can only hope that justice will now prevail in Idaho where the shooter is scheduled to be tried.

Cherokee - - Yup. BS. And in a couple days, the longs will likely have their heads handed to them on an ink gilded plater just like those who went short this morning no doubt did. I do think we are essentially in the bear market in stocks now, even if they were to make new highs briefly. It'll just take a little bit for the bull to figure this out. The PPT will get gored when it stands in front of that stampeding animal! In the meantime, I'm sure they want to feed the sheep some more paper while the big guys continue to bail out.

You'll get no point by point rebuttal from me, because we don't speak the same language or live on the same planet. If you don't believe ANY economic data published in the Wall Street journal or any other respected financial publication, but instead believe only your own deluded fantasies, what is there to discuss?

I live in this country, travel it frequently, and have studied my history. You have some bizarre world view that no one but a paranoid psychotic would ever by into. COnsequently, we simply have nothing to discuss, as there's no common ground whatsoever. I agree the inflation data is misleading at best, and that of course is due to the bogus formula used, not the innaccuracy of numbers reported.

Regrading corporate profits, unemployment, productivity, etc. When you want to produce data from widely respected and accepted financial institutions, that contradicts the data published daily in the WSJ and other excellent financial pubs. then you'll be worth a listen. Till then, you're just blowin smoke up our Arses... ( well other's anyway, not mine )

Nikkei futures up over 300 points today. Closing rally by Dow signals followup rally in many overseas markets tomorrow. Won't last long, but should be tradeable. Those expecting the Nikkei to collapse will not get their wish tomorrow.

Gold stock action still horrible. Hope cyclist is right about a short- term bounce.

FWIW xtra liquidity goes a long way,snap rally in the XAu expected.
Banks look excellent to reshort again,most of them bounced from the neckline,possibly day after tomorrow.: ) happy trading.
Sorry JTF .. the xtra bounce

I'd call the colonists, visionary and extremely hardworking freedom lovers who had a vision of a democratic state, based on rule of law, yet without opressive authoritarian religious and political persecution.

These folks however, didn't try and destroy, or root for the desctruction of Great Britain. They dreamed, sacrificed, built, and founded a new nation based on Democratic principles.

The founders would roll in their graves if they had to read the plaintive whinings of the non productive, irrational, U.S. haters of today who supposedly invoke "constitutional" principles. And..BTW..

I'm a Republican/Libertarian, not some kinda socialistic, concentration of Federal power monger. The FED under AG however, has dome nothing short of an OUTSTANDING job at helping promote the incredible wealth and strength we enjoy today. To those who say it's an illusion, I say wake up and look around..then go read your history books.

This whole thing took a generation to build ( more by some reckoning ) .Day to day, week to week means nothing. If you think gold is undervalued and the dollar overpriced in gold, keep taking advantage of this as long as you can. Watch the dollar.

Agreement here.

And I think it's time to ban a couple of posters whose goals are to disrupt this site. Too much of the discussion here is from, to, and about these entities which is exactly what they intend. Let them pay a psychiatrist instead of wasting time and space here.

At university we learn that fiat money was actually invented by the emperor of China several thousand years ago. He gave his people the choice if they wanted to use it or not. They could chose to exchange their gold for the paper fiat currency, or be thrown off a very high cliff.

So much for prosperity from fiat currency.

ciao

ALL: WITH THE INFORMATION EXCHANGED HERE ON KITCO AND 1000 OTHER SITES I VISIT - - - - Why would anyone pay a Financial Planner to give advice when the only thing they are interested in is how to structure their fee ???

This is not a rhetorical question ...

Folks, looks like discussion on this forum is again deteriorating down to personal attacks and not so tasteful comments. Could it be that its due to mounting frustration that markets do not react the way we think they should?

As far as Asia goes, I see many comments "you are showing no sympathy for poor souls in Asia". Now how exactly is one suppose to show sympathy? After one expresses sympathy to Asian people through private thought and prayers, or openly through posting thoughts on net, what else would you do? Do you think that buying gold would do it? Do you think that selling US stocks would do it? Do you think that helping paper markets crash would do it? Because it looks to me that some people insinuate that to be appropriate course of action. That connection totally escapes me.

Would somebody please explain to me how would US market crash help poor people in Asia? Or how would raising price of gold help them? I agree that financial markets are in bad shape but to fix them will take much more that crashing market in the US, as a matter of fact I think it may make things even worse.

JMHO

I am a patient. I just want to be right and rich, please hurry.

Yep, that's always the first recourse for a good anti democracy fascist Dave. Let's bar free speech since we can't argue our point on it's merits. Bravo, show those true colors. maybe Spud and others will join you in your quest to ban thoughts and ideas you don't like eh?

lurker- steve- - - - - -

exactly the reason i believe they will pull a surprise
attack upon us paper........by selling bonds to
repatriate $$$$.....their investments are going
to be used to pay debt......

wait until asia sells their us bond holdings....where
else do they have the kind of $$$ necessary to service
their debt? the losses in the nikkei, hang seng, indonesia, malaysia, etc have eliminated their profit- ability.
......liquidity is nil.....where oh where is there left to go?

this selling of bonds will accomplish what the middle- east and
asian countries have wanted for a long time.....

it will destroy the us$......it will destroy the us$......our
debt will not be sell- able..........us paper is the next target
of those wishing a paradigm shift in world- wide economics.....and
the control of same.........the us$ is fixing to burn with
us bonds.........the BOND- BOMB is ticking.....we built the damned
thing....and then sold it to those with different agendas.....

kind- of- like the military situation world- wide........we build the
machines of destruction....and sell them for profit.....full well
knowing the implications.....yet ignoring them, due to greed and
sleep- walking- itis..

...the peopleo have but one path visible, and thus believe that
surely is the way to go........the poor peopleo......

!;.........waiting- for- LIMIT- MOVES- DOWN- IN- BEANS- AND- CORN- - - - - ; )

The more modern way is to tax people in the currency and then throw them off a cliff if they don't pay.

I'm confused. Am I supposed to feel SORRY for someone in Asia of do I just have to say it and therefore it is so ???

How many "common folks" in Asia are a part of the market ? Without 401 ( k ) plans, the majority of Americans would not be "in the market". Tell me - who am I to feel sorry for ???

I have a supsicion as to how many "common folks" comprise their markets but I'll leave that up to the experts since mine is only conjecture ( opinion ) .

You "Show sympathy for Asia" by providing the technology, capital, expertise, and tools, to build healthy economies as we did in the 40's , 50's and 60's. It lifted them from abject misery and poverty to where they are today. Too much too far too fast? Yep. And far better than the alternative.

How about today? Same thing. Provide a bailout to those who agree to reform their banking and lending policies such that they are no longer backing non viable borrowers for non viable projects. They'll make a comeback, just as Mexico did two years ago.

sharefin, All: So the markets closed up generally 1% or more , with an upturn at the end of the day. Advances rougly matched declines. Not what I expected, given the red ink all over the world. And - - all of the stocks that I follow intraday plummeted, except HWP.

So - - is this the beginning of a rally? Or is it something else? Very fishy advance/decline ratio for the beginning of a rally.

It will be interesting to see what the Nikkei 225 does with new Japanese disclosure of $670 billion or so of bad loans. Has the Japanese market already discounted the loan disclosure?

It will be interesting to see what sharefin's A/D swing chart reveals.

Does anyone have specific details as to the rumour that SUHARTO is ignoring the advice of the IMF ( reduce capital projects, etc ) because his family and friends are the beneficiaries of these government projects ?
I've heard this thrown around but never read actual details .

Thanx!

You flatter yourself too much again.

Here I sit with egg on my face. Apparently all I have to do is comment that the DOW has dropped into negative territory to serve as the catalyst for a rally. Since my record has a remarkable history of inaccurate prognosticating I am stating here and now that gold is going to drop steeply tomorrow. Now there friends buy it while its hot.

As I said the other day, you either

1. Enjoy kicking people when they're down or
2. Enjoy the abuse you get here

or both. Whatever your psychological problems, don't waste our time and space.

Here I sit with egg on my face. Apparently all I have to do is comment that the DOW has dropped into negative territory to serve as the catalyst for a rally. Since my prediction record highlights a remarkable history of inaccurate prognosticating I am stating here and now that gold is going to drop steeply tomorrow. Now there friends buy it while its hot. Its going up.

Here I sit with egg on my face. Apparently all I have to do is comment that the DOW has dropped into negative territory to serve as the catalyst for a rally. Since my prediction record highlights a remarkable history of inaccurate prognosticating I am stating here and now that gold is going to drop steeply tomorrow. Now there friends buy it while its hot. Its going up.

Looking for source of accurate #'s of Gov't. metal holdings. Can you help?

Miro: You were commenting on how the discussions are deteriorating into personal attacks. I remember another day like this - oddly enough - was also on a full moon. I have done much reading on this topic, and there is clearly a pattern. Not everyone is affected, and the affected ones may not know that they are affected, but everyone else does.

I'm humbled - - we really don't know very much about the world it seems. It's days like this that I wonder if some people has less free will than others. No wonder the market is chaotic, and not totally random.

ANOTHERS thoughts of the past weekend have appeared on Colins stock market crash page published in London for anyone unable to access them here due to Kitcos ongoing computer delays. They, as usual, are very troubling; especially the question inherent in our type of forum: Who is ANOTHER and why does he post here?

Aragorn III is convinced that it is out of compassion for his fellow man... which seems on the face of it, reasonable. ANOTHERS obvious market knowledge and unique point of view, his cryptic and secretive style of writing, even his grammatical phrasing immediately suggest a middle eastern...or at least a non- western bias. It has even been suggested here that he is the Sultan of Dubai.

But just what do we know of him? CMAX is anxious to dine with him; assumably to find answers to these very basic questions. It is virtually inconceivable that human beings as we know them could operate without some sort of underlying principle of self- interest and remain within the boundaries of sanity as we know it.

So who is ANOTHER? For those among us with a conspiratorial mindset I suggest that we discard the obvious, and admit for a moment that it is very unlikely that ANOTHER would act as he does out of compassion for his fellow man... Whatthencould his agenda be? Is he a coin dealer bent on boosting coin sales? A futures broker? A prankster sowing disinformation?

As we ponder his THOUGHTS we must address these questions. Ideas floating around in cyberspace which cannot be evaluated using our usual human methods and assumptions can be very pronounced hazards to navigation.

Here I sit also repeating myself. These buttons are not working the best in the world for me lately. I apologize twice for repeating myself twice.

Good URL for same http://www.csicop.org/si/9705/moonshine.html

Hong Kong Standard
Tuesday, Jan 13, 1998
Peregrine sources said the investment bank had already begun to default on millions of dollars worth of debt.

``We have already defaulted in the US,'' a senior company
source said.

http://www.hkstandard.com/online/news/001/hksnews.htm

A.Goose@bet.to.win Maybe my Morgan Stanley ( :- ) ) ) who was
a bit shrewishly optimistic just last Friday?

Another beautiful day for the gold market. It started out going up like a shot only to have the forces strip the take at the end of the day sending it down by ten cents. Such a day has become enjoyable. No longer am I asking for excitiment as I have had almost more than I can stand thses part few months. I say, let's hold the fort for a while, then maybe consider asking the God's for a little excitment ( assuming they are as timred as I am with depressing gold markets ) .

JTF - Hello!
I see you're awake ! It's 00:20 here and I'm now off to bed.

Re a couple of your earlier posts glimpsed a while ago:
A rather lengthy mail coming your way- also Sharefin, Mike, kk- are you all still up?!

Best regards..

Not a great day for the silver bugs, yours truly included.

A couple weeks ago I was feeling SOOO SMART, since I have 40% of my portfolio in PAASF and SSRIF.

( the rest is 50% in cash, 1% in LEAP puts, 5% in silver eagles and $20 Libs with some Pt, Pd, Au stocks as the balance ) .

Now I feel SOOO Stupid for not selling on the big run- up. And I saw it coming; just didn't imagine the retracement would be so severe. Buy and hold is sometimes very hard.

Where's that tequila you guys were serving up the other night?

Silverbaron ( in NC )

LGB Writes:
If you don't believe ANY economic data published in the Wall Street journal or any other respected financial publication, but instead believe only your own deluded fantasies, what is there to discuss?

Spud responds:
You did not mention data published in the Wall Street Journal. In fact, you seldom mention any data. I will agree that when it comes to numbers, statistics and figures announced by the Federal Government, and the White House in particular, I have no faith at all. Nor do I believe myself to be alone in this belief. I have *nothing* to gain by manipulating the masses of American people. Feel free to quote the Wall Street Journal, Barrons or other financial publications.

LGB Writes:
I live in this country, travel it frequently, and have studied my history. You have some bizarre world view that no one but a paranoid psychotic would ever by into.

Spud responds:
Last time I checked, I live in the same *real* world as most people not living in the Magic Kingdom of Wall Street or Washington D.C. That means I buy my own food, pay my own bills, drive my own car, buy my own gasoline, buy tickets to the movies, just like most other people. Are you therefore asserting that most Americans are 'paranoid'? Most amusing. I assure you, the South East Asians loosing jobs, homes and savings are not paranoid. What do you think? Are they just *imagining* 50% - 60% devaluation of their currencies? Are they just imagining collapsing stock markets? Are they just imagining the loss of their life's savings?

LGB Writes:
I agree the inflation data is misleading at best, and that of course is due to the bogus formula used, not the innaccuracy of numbers reported.

Spud responds:
What? The formulas used to calculate inflation are bogus, and the numbers, though misleading, are accurate? That's a damn lucky coincidence! Usually bad formulas produce bad numbers. WHAT are you trying to say?

LGB writes:
Regrading corporate profits, unemployment, productivity, etc. When you want to produce data from widely respected and accepted financial institutions, that contradicts the data published daily in the WSJ and other excellent financial pubs. then you'll be worth a listen.

Spud writes:
Actually, I have produced my own, local North Texas inflation survey, of weekly consumables for 1997 and got approx. 11% inflation. That directly contradicts the published CPI number of around 2% . I also invited the readers to go out and maintain their own inflation index. As I do you, LGB. Or do you only trust the accurate numbers from bogus formulas?

LGB writes:
Till then, you're just blowin smoke up our Arses... ( well other's anyway, not mine )

Spud responds:
I think I'll leave the 'blowing' to a professional such as yourself.

///////
LGB writes:
what I meant to say was, whenever I see someone constantly spouting hate rhetoric based in class envy, hatred of country, embracing of guns as part of solution to economic woes, etc etc. I do indeed think of Timothy McVeigh, and I offer no apologies for it. I find such rhetoric, dangerous, and call it what it is. I'll put the sum totality of my posts on Kitco next to SPuds ANY day and then you tell ME who spouts the invective, class/race baiting with zeal....

Spud responds:
I love my country; I hate the devious men and women who have usurped the US Constitution. I do not embrace the use of guns, save when they are legal permited, i.e. defense of life and property, and under Article 2 of the Constitution.

LGB writes:
My reference Strad. was not to this PARTICULAR post of Spudbuster's, but many previous posts. As to not answering his silly point by point analysis, I've answered it too many times, and been called redundant too often already. I agree some Govt. figures are not accurate or trustworthy, inflation for example, and are built on faulty premises.

Spud responds:
Ahhhhh ... LGB, after begging for ages for someone to respond point- by- point to his words, goes all weak in the knees when he is called on it. Silly? I don't think so, LGB. Nor do many of our debate participants, I think. Perhaps they will let you & I know?

LGB writes:
Nonetheless, if we're going to have an intelligent discussion on such matters, anecdotal evidence has far less meaning than the total body of financial data released by economists, Govt. agencies, thinktank institutions, etc.

Spud responds:
That 'anecdotal' evidence is *real* world experience - not some statistic cooked up in a Washington D.C. 'think- tank' by people who are surprised that grocery markets have laser scanners or don't know the price of a gallon of milk. You are being elitist as usual, LGB. Come on down here where the honest people of America live, work and pay taxes for those Washington D.C. types who think they know how we should live.

LGB writes:
Let's see Spud produce some reliable statistics and quote their source if he believes all other numbers, such as unemployment rates are manufactured. Only a complete moron or someone that never leaves home, could believe that the job base of QUALITY jobs hasn't increased steadily for years, for example, no matter what data you choose.

Spud responds:
Uh ... call me a moron, but, no I do not believe that "the job base of QUALITY jobs" hasn't steadily increased. Nor do you cite any figures. I can tell you that there are an AWFUL lot of low- paying service industry jobs - grovery sackers, Jack- In- The- Box taco makers, Seven- Eleven tellers, etc. Are these "quality" jobs?

LB writes:
For anyone to state that we're in a "Taco Bell" economy, and that our lives are terrible, opressed, the cause of all the world's suffering, etc etc, ad nauseum, indicates that the person is living on some other planet than the one I am.

Spud responds:
I have not made such a "universal" assertion. And you know this. I have been adamant on calling you each time you make a Panglossian assertion that "we live in the best of all possible worlds". I assert that, throught the distortion of reality effected by fiat currency, a false prosperity has been created that will collapse & bring ruin, hardship and suffering to many, many innocents ( ref. South East Asia ) . Furthermore, I ascribe to those who have benefited from this calculated manipulation of world economics and currency the appelation "criminal". Instead of many poor, and few rich as we have with false fiat paper, we would have a large, world- wide middle class, and the stability such a class engenders.

LGB writes:
I believe we would not have the level of economic development we have if we hadn't had fiat currency and the FED's current monetary policy. Windows 95 would be a mere gleam in Bill Gates eye, and we'd still be using advanced versions of TI calculators instead of the Internet.

Spud writes:
This is a gratutios assertion, without proof, therefore I discard it as gratutiously. Perhaps, if we had had fiduciary money, there would be many, many Bill Gates, and we would have optical computers with terahertz computing, or even nanotech computers. We will never know, due to the manipulative distortion engendered by the control of fiat money by the few.

LGB writes:
Like it or not, it's debt and monetary expansion that has in large part fueled our prosperity, economic growth, and technology breakthroughs. The problem in Asia, is that debt and economy expansion was carried way too far. Investing in projects with no viable chance for success.

Spud responds:
What has happened in the stock market in the last fifteen years has little to do with "investment" and much to do with "SPECULATION". Please do not attempt to confuse our audience. No one disagrees that investment is good.

LGB writes:
As to Spuds ridiculous assertions that little Asian children are now going to starve in exploitation due to the "evvvvviiilll" Americans like myself, he certainly hasn't studied his world history has he?

Spud responds:
Watch the tv, LGB. As to world history, it's a sorry tale, filled with tyrants, thugs and slavers who would be our masters through manipulation when possible, force of arms when necessary. It also chronicles that free men and women do resist and overthrow them. As to the "evil exploiters", LGB, they transcend nationality. They are sui generis.

LGB writes:
Pre fiat currency, pre industrialized Asian economies wrought mass starvation and poverty on an incredibly grand scale before the advent of current policy and foreign capital infusions. As I've said a million times here ( give or take a few ) , ask an Asian at the END of this current crises whether he's better off now, or would have preferred the "good old days" of starvation, disease, rice paddy farming ( for the lucky ones ) , and a per capita income of $150 or so annually.

Spud responds:
History does not back you up. China, for example, has a very long history of fiat currency that predates Western usage of paper. Asian misery and suffering, historically, has more to do with invasion, famine and pestilence, than the "paper" kind of pestilence. At least until now. See South East Asia on the tv.

LGB writes:
The same applies here in the U.S., albeit on a grander scale. The wealthy folks that SPUD so hates and envies, are the ONLY ones who would truly not suffer in the economic conditions of the "good old days" before the
enterpreneurs and "little guys" were given a decent chance to have homes, businesses, and jobs through capitalcreation.

Spud responds:
I do not hate wealthy folk. Anyone who earns their money through honest work, inventiveness, skill, the sweat of their brow has my utmost respect. I do hate those who, by manipulation of the law, through schemeing, through lust for power, accumulate wealth. Make no mistake where I stand. Nor do I swallow the pablum that LGB's god- like "wealthy" persons made possible the USA we live in today. That would be like saying J. P. Morgan made possible good rail- roads at the cost of the quality of life of a few tens- of- thousands of 1890- 1915 workers. The ends justify the means, LGB? And by the way, printing fiat money does not equalt capital creation.

LGB writes:
It doesn't take a rocket scientist ( though I happen to be one ) to look back a few decades and beyond, and measure "Quality of life" for those generations that came before us.

Spuds writes:
No one questions the current quality of life. That is a red herring. What I ask is: what about the FUTURE quality of life? The world built on this rotten foundation of manipulated fiat current is teetering. Each of us know that we will never see a penny of money taken from us for "voluntary" contribution to Social Security, for example. Some of us understand that our IRA and 401K moneys will likewise be usurped by the Federal Government to cover its rapcious and ever increasing appetite for our wealth.

LGB writes:
The whining complainers of today, claim to be rooted in historical facts, yet have no idea apparently, what the economic conditions were for those who lived on the "Good old" metals backed currency days. The SPUDS of the world, are simply envious of other's achievemnts and hope to see it all collapse so they can feel "vindicated" for their embittered views.

Spud responds ( whew! glad to be at the end for now! )
I am content with what I own, and my station in life. And I would not eveny the wealth of those who have taken by manipulation of paper instruments for their own gain. ( shudder ) . We all will have to reckon for what we have done.

You have already been told that none of us are pleased about the coming collapsed and hard times as a result of paper currencies. It is our sorrow that our voices have been too few, our warnings fallen on deaf ears. But I take heart. Two hundred years ago, LGB's "whiners" finally got fed up and did something about the lies, deceit and manipulation. They threw out the European banker, aristocrats and bureacrats. They warned us that if we ever let a Central Bank form that they, the bankers, would soon be our masters.

my appologies in advance for the inevitable spelling errors, syntax and grammar.

I post very infrequently but do a lot of reading and learning from folks like you.

I flew off the handle after reading LGB's waste of space at 16:14. Here are a few key phrases:

Spud Masterba*** ( I assume he means masterbate )
deluded fantasies
bizarre world view
paranoid psychotic
deluded fantasies ( again )
you're blowing smoke up our arses

Then he posts a pointer to a lunar site. How should someone react to the above?

For those of you who hold equity mutual funds, I must warn you that on the surface it looked like a powerful move but you must look deeper into how and why this strength appeared. Firstly it is YOUR MONEY BEING USED TO SUPPORT THE MARKET ALLOWING FOR PAPER TO PASS FROM STRONG HANDS TO WEAK HANDS! Secondly, the MOVE CAME AS A RESULT OF FUTURES BUYING 3 MINUTES BEFORE THE MARKET OPENED!WHO MIGHT THAT OF BEEN? Look timing is not the issue here for gold or equities, but what is, is that you recognise the distribution cycle of this late bull or early bear. CNBC actually slipped today and leaked out a little tidbit that should be a very powerful indicator. Oil Services Fund Forced To LIQUIDATE EQUITY POSITIONS IN ORDER TO COMPLETE REDEMPTIONS!Need I say more?

January 12, 1998
Japan reiterates 'deep remorse' for wartime suffering

TOKYO ( CP )  Japan's prime minister met his British counterpart on Monday and apologized for Japanese actions in the Second World War  but British veterans' groups rejected it as too little, too late.

A Canadian veterans' group was also critical of the apology. "So what," said Cliff Chadderton, patron of the Hong Kong Veterans Association of Canada.

He said Japan owes Canadian Far East PoWs $24,000 each. The claim is now before the Canadian government.

But another veterans' group, the Royal British Legion, welcomed the apology.
http://www.canoe.ca/WorldTicker/CANOE- wire.War- Apology.html

Reference your earlier posts regarding tides, cosmic attraction, earthquakes, and phases of the moon....as far as I'm concerned...whatever you say goes. Your short explanation made very good sense to me, as has everything else of which you have spoken.

That aside...I am now predicting ( this limb stuff that I've started because of my worship of cherokee has got to stop ) a PAPER- WAD TSUNAMI WAVE OF THE GREATEST MAGNITUDE WILL STRIKE ALL COASTS OF THE WORLD AND ALL LAKE AND POND SHORELINES WORLDWIDE ON FEBRUARY 28, 1998. A paper- wad tsunami consists of worthless paper thrown in the ocean on one side of the world and its resultant magnified wave that travels to the other side. The mess will be very bad.

Okay, I've had a lot of coffee today. But back to the serious side. You spoke of truth today. Tolerant 1's post of 11:58, yesterday is a must read. His notion of knowledge is absolutely remarkable. Tolerant is capable of the greatest thought, as you are.

Over the weekend I picked up some references re Fed talking deflation. To me they always talk toward what they want to do. From what Greenspan has said in the recent past, it appears that he wants to do what he thinks deflation calls for- - print the heel out of currency.

Is the all time low in the XAU 59?

South China Morning Business Post
Tuesday, Jan 13, 1998

Hashimoto to defend rescue package
Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto - who calls the financial system the "artery of the economy" - will today give parliament its
first chance to discuss a crucial 30 trillion yen ( about
HK$1.76 trillion ) transfusion for the nation's banks and depositors.

A. Goose@This.is.driving.you.crazy But it is also, I would submit,
having a psychological impact on Bill and Bob and Al. Another weapon
in the battle?

You win the award for first post over 1K words since Voyeur Professor. Lucky for you, many of em were my words being quoted....otherwise it'd be pretty vacuous stuff. BTW, I've quoted specific statistics and data from WSJ here on many dozens of ocassions, should you care to consult archives.

Any reputable economist ( Puetz excepted ) would agree that we have the best economic conditions in history, including the best job base, corparte profit picture, productivity, and many other "close to best" areas for our day...interest rates etc. FOlks may disagree on why this is so, but they don't disagree that it IS SO...unless they live in a lil world of their own making....

WetGold, I am also confused. My question was triggered by some posts which simply insinuated that anybody who supports paper markets and gain from it don't feel any sympathy for folks suffering in Asia. I simply do not agree. That's it. People in Asia, even if not in market, suffer due to declining purchasing power of their money, however, crash of US markets wont help them.

Here's an earthquake prediction I entered in my notebook a year or so ago; the source was the Matrix Institute:

Feb 1998 - California:

Riverside 7.4 Richter East to West fault movement, followed by 8.1 Richter San Andreas Fault upward thrust.

A Big Boy!

As I recall, Matrix Institute is one of those psychic organizations who predict such things; I don't know their track record.

Anyway, the prediction was SO
specific, it prompted me write it down for future reference, just in case I might be traveling to CA in that time frame. Pretty soon - we'll see.

Silverbaron ( in NC )

Join me now in this oldie but goodie...

Our day will come and we'll have everything.
Our day will come, if we just wait awhile.
Our love has magic and we'll always stay in love with ( insert name of favorite PM ) this way,
Our daaaaaay will come.....

fundaMETAList

January 12, 1998
Hong Kong stocks tumble with failure of investment bank

HONG KONG ( AP )  East Asia's economic turmoil claimed a major Hong Kong finance house Monday, driving it into liquidation and sending stocks tumbling again. U.S. and IMF officials pursued new emergency measures to stem the crisis.

One Hong Kong bank clerk, Chau Ho- yeung, said his $9,000 investment was now worth about $1,300. "I'm expecting the worst. I've lost everything, and I'm now only holding on to a pile of wastepaper," Chau said, standing in front of a stock market screen at a downtown bank.


Meanwhile in Seoul, South Korean President- elect Kim Dae- jung met IMF head Michel Camdessus and announced he would push through legislation making layoffs easier despite threats of strikes by militant labor unions.

Layoffs are a key condition of the IMF's record $57- billion bailout of the sinking South Korean economy, currently saddled with inefficiencies.
http://www.canoe.ca/WorldTicker/CANOE- wire.Asian- Crisis.html

"In South Korea today the president of that country asked visiting IMF director Michael Camdessus to address South Korean workers on the subject of them taking a wage cut to pay off the New York and Tokyo banks." ( from USA Gold )

So what happens if the tigers decide that there is wisdom in the old western proverb: "If you owe the bank a thousand you have a problem, if you owe the bank a million dollars the bank has a problem." At $300 billion outstanding "problem" is not at all adequate in scope to describe the position that western and Japanese banks now find themselves.

Given the political dynamics of "crony capitalism" it may well seem to the collective leadership of the tigers that some form of collective debt moritorium may be more tolerable than the internal pain and chaos that the IMF is cheerfully presenting them at the moment.

What have they got to loose?? What have the western and nipponese bankers have to loose?? At 300 billion this becomes a dillema of metaphysical proportions....

January 12, 1998
Hong Kong stocks tumble with failure of investment bank

HONG KONG ( AP )  East Asia's economic turmoil claimed a major Hong Kong finance house Monday, driving it into liquidation and sending stocks tumbling again. U.S. and IMF officials pursued new emergency measures to stem the crisis.

One Hong Kong bank clerk, Chau Ho- yeung, said his $9,000 investment was now worth about $1,300. "I'm expecting the worst. I've lost everything, and I'm now only holding on to a pile of wastepaper," Chau said, standing in front of a stock market screen at a downtown bank.


Meanwhile in Seoul, South Korean President- elect Kim Dae- jung met IMF head Michel Camdessus and announced he would push through legislation making layoffs easier despite threats of strikes by militant labor unions.

Layoffs are a key condition of the IMF's record $57- billion bailout of the sinking South Korean economy, currently saddled with inefficiencies.
http://www.canoe.ca/WorldTicker/CANOE- wire.Asian- Crisis.html

January 12, 1998
Hong Kong stocks tumble with failure of investment bank

HONG KONG ( AP )  East Asia's economic turmoil claimed a major Hong Kong finance house Monday, driving it into liquidation and sending stocks tumbling again. U.S. and IMF officials pursued new emergency measures to stem the crisis.

One Hong Kong bank clerk, Chau Ho- yeung, said his $9,000 investment was now worth about $1,300. "I'm expecting the worst. I've lost everything, and I'm now only holding on to a pile of wastepaper," Chau said, standing in front of a stock market screen at a downtown bank.


Meanwhile in Seoul, South Korean President- elect Kim Dae- jung met IMF head Michel Camdessus and announced he would push through legislation making layoffs easier despite threats of strikes by militant labor unions.

Layoffs are a key condition of the IMF's record $57- billion bailout of the sinking South Korean economy, currently saddled with inefficiencies.
http://www.canoe.ca/WorldTicker/CANOE- wire.Asian- Crisis.html

!!!!!!

Date: Mon Jan 12 1998 17:33
SDRer__A ( A. Gooses Hashimoto pill: take three times daily, with a grain of salt ) ID#288155:

You are right this is driving me crazy. BUT I guess that is the way life goes. At least, I can see that smarter, wiser, more skillful people than myself are having great difficulty in these trying times.

Just think of all the rich and successful folks in Asia, that have watched their life works disapear in a few short months. They always new their markets and their governments and their paper currencies would be there when they needed them. And of course, they were left high and dry.

So I guess I should not be so hard on myself when I have trouble figuring out how the game is going to play out. At least I recognize the first act.

The laws of nature finally ruled in Asia. I guess the laws of nature will have the last say in the new world also.

In 87 our government bought S& P futures to turn the market around then, so I guess they bought futures today with the same effect. Good thing they don't have full disclosure for their activities.

Simple logic tells me that ANOTHER's story
is not for our use. I'll tell you why if you
are interested. But I think you already know...

ANOTHER is probably a writer.

D.A.: I wonder if you are surprised by the severity of the retracement in silver. Personally, I find it shocking that silver could drop so far with kitco lease rates over 7% per year.

One explanation is that there are funds borrowing silver to short in the physical markets like gold but with stockpiles at such low levels, this seems nothing short of suicidal...

The other explanation is that rumours of legal and/or CFTC intervention is sufficient to drive down si by nearly a dollar in the face of high lease rates and low warehouse stockpiles...

This does seem to be a theme in the PGMS markets - where bear moves seem to have exceptional power behind them in the face of otherwise daunting fundamentals such as the enormous short position reported for gold or the low stockpiles reported for silver.

Should this be telling us somethin??

Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after trading today:

Gold: Fell 997 troy ounces to 472,979

Silver: Fell 345,773 troy ounces to 110,232,952 - Just above a 13 year low

fundaMETAList ( Silver and Gold Bugs ) ID#338289:
Join me now in this oldie but goodie...

Our day will come and we'll have everything.
Our day will come, if we just wait awhile.
Our love has magic and we'll always stay in love
with ( insert name of favorite PM ) this way,
Our daaaaaay will come.....

_____________________________________________________________

Wasn't that a Sonny & Cher classic...

LGB, in regards to your numerous posts, and your constant extolling the virtues of the dollar, would you please explain the following article and how inflation is dead. I am sure that you and Bill Clinton share many of the same views and probably the same characteristics in as much as you both speak from both ends, if you get my drift.




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Monday January 12 4:12 PM EST

Clinton May Propose Minimum- Wage Increase

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - President Clinton is considering proposing an increase in the minimum wage to bring its eroded buying power closer to levels of two decades ago, a White House spokesman said Monday.

"It's being looked at," spokesman Mike McCurry told reporters.

"An increase in the minimum wage has been suggested by many of our friends and supporters in Congress and there are a number of ideas the president has under examination including what he can do with a minimum wage that has lost some of its economic power relative to what it has been in the past," McCurry said.

"The increases that we did in 1996 did not bring it up to the full value it had, for example, 20 years ago," he said.

McCurry gave no indication of how big an increase was being considered.

After a bruising battle in 1996, the Republican- controlled Congress approved raising the minimum wage for the first time in five years, to $5.15 an hour from $4.25 in two increments.

But even before the second, 40- cent step, took effect last September, Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy had introduced a bill last year to raise the minimum wage by a further $2.10 per hour, to $7.25, over five years.

The government reported last week that hourly earnings for U.S. workers averaged $12.48 in December.

Clinton said last year that the last minimum- wage increase had helped boost incomes of the poorest group of Americans.

However, Republicans have traditionally sharply opposed increases in the minimum wage, arguing that higher minimum wages discourage employers from hiring unskilled workers.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress in July that raising the minimum wage to $6.50 per hour would prevent lower- skilled workers from improving their position in the labor force.

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Copyright  1997 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon
Questions or Comments

Dave in CO: Censorship? Naw. It's far to easy to pass over the irritations. There is plenty of good stuff. Don't concern yourself with the crap.

What If the Dollar Just Keeps Rising?

Nationally syndicated market anakyst, Rick Ackerman, shares his insights about the adverse strength of the greenback.

Business couldn't be better, consumers are as confident as they've been inyears, the dollar is king and interest rates are bouncing near multi- year lows.

Not much for U.S. investors to worry about, right?

Think again. That strong dollar, of all things, is threatening to
blight the rosy picture by destabilizing financial markets and
constricting global trade. Moreover, there is no apparent way to
stop it. WHAT ARE THE DIRE RAMIFICATIONS

To read the report, copy & paste ABOVE URL to your Internet call- up window ( Location or Go To ) , then hit ENTER.

What is seen is the establishment of a disbursement network

Hi guys,
I was observing this place for about a week, and I have learned something from all of you.
Last year I had a good job working for a Canadian junior company in Central Asia exploring for gold. Now I am sitting depressed at home watching POG falling down. But you guys are giving me some hope, that sometime in the future a better time will come for miners and explorers

Funds' future globally grim

Managers worldwide say they are losing confidence in equities, buying bonds

January 12, 1998: 1:48 p.m. ET

LONDON ( Reuters ) - Fund managers worldwide are increasingly pessimistic about economic and corporate earnings growth, according to investment bank Merrill Lynch's monthly Gallup Global Survey released on Monday.
"Managers are downgrading their forecasts for earnings per share and at the same time this bearishness for equities makes them want to buy bonds," Merrill Lynch global strategist Bijal Shah told Reuters Financial Television. "They are saying this weakness in activity means that inflation is not going to pick up and bond prices should rise."
The survey was carried out in early January and involved 275 institutions with funds under management totaling $5.615 trillion.
Almost across the board, fund managers worldwide are taking defensive positions and voicing doubts about stock market prospects.
In the United States, fund managers have turned bearish on U.S. equities, according to the survey.
European managers were becoming increasingly bullish about European equities and in the UK gilts attracted managers but views were more bearish in Japan, Pacific Asia and South Africa.
In January sellers of U.S. equities exceeded buyers by five percent, with 54 percent of the fund managers saying they see unfavorable prospects for corporate profits this year.
"We are seeing a sharp increase in asset allocations towards defensive stocks like pharmaceuticals or utilities and we are seeing this across the board, not just in the U.S.," Shah said.
Only 19 percent of the managers felt the outlook for U.S. corporates was favorable.
"Given this view it is all the more concerning that 46 percent of managers believe that the U.S. equity market is overvalued and not one [manager] believes it is undervalued," Merrill Lynch said.
Buyers of continental European equities outnumbered sellers by 27 percent, up from 17 percent a month ago. Bulls outnumbered bears by 50 percent on both the 3- and 12- month view.
The bullish view was reflected in 84 percent of respondents expressing an optimistic outlook for corporate profits, with 69 percent judging that European equities were fairly priced.
However Shah said the prospect might be less bright for German equities due to Germany's Asian rivals competing with heavily depreciated currencies in the export markets.
Buying interest for U.K. gilts in January reached its highest level since late 1994 with buyers outnumbering sellers by 29 percent.
"The bullishness on gilts most probably reflects waning optimism on economic growth and the fact that the number of bears on inflation declined rapidly," according to the Merrill Lynch survey.
Only 26 percent of respondents expected U.K. inflation to rise over the coming year compared with 40 percent in last month's survey.
"What we are beginning to see is a slowdown in the U.K. economy and that is what the managers are forecasting," Shah said. "If managers are right, then the key place where you might actually make some money would be financial stocks, which would benefit from lower interest rates."
The outlook was bleaker elsewhere.
Bearishness increased over the near- term outlook for Japanese equities, where buyers outnumbered sellers by 7 percent in January against 24 percent last month.
The net buying interest was the lowest since March 1997, when sentiment was depressed ahead of the April tax increase.
Respondents forecast earnings per share growth of just 2.8 percent for fiscal 1997 and 4.9 percent the following year compared with figures around 10 percent in May, according to the survey.
Following interest rate rises in Hong Kong and Singapore, managers have turned bearish on both centers for the first time since the South East Asian crisis began, the survey showed.
Bears outnumber bulls by 11 percent for Hong Kong and by 18 percent for Singapore and are looking to reduce their exposure to these markets for the first time since the survey began.
Markets in favor were those unscathed by the Asian crisis, such as Australia and particularly India, where equity buyers outnumbered sellers by 29 percent and 25 percent respectively.
Fund managers in South Africa had a dim view of their country's outlook, with only 36 percent expecting the general economic situation to improve, compared to 54 percent with that belief in December and 62 percent in November.

Think it was Ruby and the Romantics who sang "Our Day Will Come" back around 1960. Sorry, off the subject again.

that they were posted . TIA.

The trend is your friend and I need a friend. Today I bought Gold April 98 280 puts of $780.00 and stops at $500. My break even is $272.20 by March 13th ( FRIDAY ) . Gold had every reason in the world to rally today but Nooooooooo. Short term gold looks sick and gold stocks even sicker.

I own Scudder Gold and as of today I am down 10% so if gold stocks dont rally tomorrow I will sell at the close.

The bulk of my Gold investments are in Philharmoniker bullion coins and have Dec. 99 270 puts to cover my ASSets. Got two years to break $305. and I am even. I have no intentions of selling my real gold and will purchase more when we rally to the $287. level.

You got to know when to hold em and know when to fold em. Im in next hand. Shuffle please!

2BR02B?: I'll have to ask my wife but maybe someone else here recognizes it. I can bring the melody to mind but I'm really bad with song names. That one just seems to fit my mood today.

fundaMETAList

I have never in all my life seen gold get battered down so hard and for so long. Is there light at the end of the tunnel? Is the bottom, in its relentless slide, nearing? What will it take for a turnaround to take place. Why has gold become the "not so favored" safe haven it once was? It does'nt even pay to gold mine anymore does it. I read so often about the amount of gold purchased per year is headed higher and the gold mined is less than the demand. Would'nt this alone be reason for the price of the commodity to go up? Simple supply and demand economics. I welcome your comments on this subject. Thank you.

GFD: "At 300 billion this becomes a dillema of metaphysical proportions...." ....... and solvable with an eminently practical solution. Default. Period. What the hell do the Asians have to lose??? Only their chains.

Much the same in the US. If 'Really Big Bank' sends Mr. Ne'erdowell a card with an invitation to spend $10k on the bank; who's the dummy???

I do so LOVE that drawdown today Real. 109,000 here we come eh? And this in the face of these lawsuit threats, What story can Merril come up with when the bull market resumes and the inventory continues to decline? IMNHO, anyone buying at these levels is going to win big in less than a years time.

Cheer up, old boy. When you are through sulking, come back
with a better attitude.

all the best,
Spud, proud to be a member of the free men and women
world 'round fighting the paper manipulators.

LGB: Thanks for the full moon web site - - I think it's the same one you found for me months ago. However, I don't need a full moon web site, all I have to do is monitor Kitco. This is a full moon day, and the disruption effect was pretty impressive. Don't know the last time it was like this - - other than one of the last times we had a full moon. I think Kitco disruptive posts/day ought to do it. Should have enough data in about six months for statistical analysis.

They are doing a story on gold production in the U.S. tonight...

Just got back from the coin shop with two
Maple Leafs in hand. Sorry it took me so
long, but I had to make sure I wasn't
followed. Also stopped in town to pick up
supplies, and get a bath and a shave. Thanks
to STUDIO.R for the encouraging words! Brave Auric... I like it!

I have the same question as you. Why would an asset long been thought of as a 'safe haven' be so out of favor? Maybe credit has something to do with it. Let's say most liquid assets are held in weak hands. If there's a credit squeeze then there is liqudation to cover when prices begin to fall. My argument a few weeks ago when this Asian thing became full blown is that gold has gone up relatively when they devalued so wouldn't people sell if they need money or see windfall profits? This seems as good an explanation as any.

There was no any - even very local - top or bottom. Whe did you bought options today?

ALAN GREENSPAN: Can a leopard change his spots...?

In 1981 Alan Greenspan spilled his guts, poured his heart out, gave us the straight- skinny, let it all hang out ABOUT WHAT HE REALLY THINKS ABOUT THE GOLD STANDARD. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY, he spoke in everyday common, clear language... he obviously wanted EVERYONE TO GRASP HIS THOUGHT, to comprehend, indeed to understand the essence of the GOLD STANDARD... its benefit and its control of THE IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE OF POLITICIANS. Is this the echo of the future?

To read Greenspan's essay on the GOLD STANDARD, copy & paste ABOVE URL to your Internet call- up window ( Location or Go To ) , then hit ENTER.

At the url http://www.acsys.com/~hong/retrieval.html you will find
a form ( a gui ) that you can use to cause a search of the Kitco postings
for some 67 days.



Comments and critiques are welcome here or at hong@acsys.com

Thanks to Ryan Sanders for helping with the gui.

Bestobe: Hi. Thanks for joining us. You must have some great tales to tell if you've been in Central Asia. I've learned on this board ( and OLD GOLD will please quickly correct me I have this wrong ) that the juniors generally recover late in the cycle so you might not want to look towards that quarter for your next mining job. How long have you been a miner?

Silverbaron: Interesting post about an earthquake prediction Feb 98. Just to make sure we are on the same wavlength, all I am saying is that tidal forces can increase the chance of an earthquake, but this does not allow a prediction of where the earthquake occurs.

Unfortunately, knowing that Feb 28 might be a 20 year record for tidal forces that trigger earthquakes may be of little value, unless someone come up with a way to determine where on earth the earthquake ( s ) will occur.

Can't evacuate the whole earth every time a full/new moon comes around - - but no harm in being a bit more careful on one of these days if you live in an earthquake area, especially Feb 28.

Studio R.: I like your paper flood day - - sure is picturesque! I wonder how many dollars a ton you can get for worthless paper! Our day will come ......

January 12, 1998
Hong Kong stocks tumble with failure of investment bank

HONG KONG ( AP )  East Asia's economic turmoil claimed a major Hong Kong finance house Monday, driving it into liquidation and sending stocks tumbling again. U.S. and IMF officials pursued new emergency measures to stem the crisis.

One Hong Kong bank clerk, Chau Ho- yeung, said his $9,000 investment was now worth about $1,300. "I'm expecting the worst. I've lost everything, and I'm now only holding on to a pile of wastepaper," Chau said, standing in front of a stock market screen at a downtown bank.


Meanwhile in Seoul, South Korean President- elect Kim Dae- jung met IMF head Michel Camdessus and announced he would push through legislation making layoffs easier despite threats of strikes by militant labor unions.

Layoffs are a key condition of the IMF's record $57- billion bailout of the sinking South Korean economy, currently saddled with inefficiencies.
http://www.canoe.ca/WorldTicker/CANOE- wire.Asian- Crisis.html

Bill ,
Received your e- mail of 1/11 but not
the Privateer.

JLIII@thenuthouse.com

CNBCreports that Abby of GS says "S& P undervalued by 5% now, Hitech and Financial services are a good buy now." Her former boss is Bob Ruben. Go Figure - buy financial services, try CitiBank. Ha!

The Dow was down 140 pts. this am until Ruben came out and started his jawboning BS, it worked, the market recovered.

I as others, hope they can keep the boat afloat, but how long can they keep talking the markets back up? I would much rather see a robust economy with inflation ( high Gold ) than deflation with the potential of global depression.

Jewelry sales fell 50% in 1930!

Earl: Indeed. The question is what happens when the 300 billion becomes a western and Japanese problem and not an "asian" problem. TTFN

SILVERBARON: It would be nice to know if the track recored of that earthquake prediction service is better than chance, since I live here in LA. It's doubtful, since most of those psychic predictions come to naught. Nonetheless, I'd like to hedge my bets and know if I ought to stay at home that day ( the safest place in these parts ) or go out to do stuff. If anyone knows anything - please let us know. Thanks

The "best" source of locational data for gold is the MINLOC database available via the Bureau of MIneral Resources in Canbera. Contact a certain Brian Elliot.

Actual nuggets, a mate of mine does this full time: contact me if you wish. Actual leases can be very expensive to purchase, but can be done.

gabbro@gold.net.au

Aye, Haggis

Clinton confident about Asia crisis
WASHINGTON, Jan. 12 ( UPI ) - - President Clinton says the Asian economic crisis can be resolved if ``the countries affected...make sure that they have the very best policies'' in place.
Clinton voiced his optimism today after markets in Tokyo, Taiwan and Singapore staggered, led by a stunning drop in Hong Kong. The crisis was fueled in part by Indonesia's ongoing currency woes.
With Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers in Jakarta for talks, Clinton said he is closely watching the situation and stated,
``We can restore stability if the countries will take the steps that are
necessary,'' including reforms outlined by the International Monetary
Fund.
Because the economies in question ``have enormous productive
capacity,'' Clinton said, ``We can restore stability if the countries
will take the steps that are necessary...the IMF reform packages have to
be followed and the rest of us need'' to be ready to provide additional
support.
The president said, ``The most important thing that has to be done is that all the countries affected have to make sure that they have the very best policies...good financial institutions, proper practices,
things that will inspire investor confidence.''
Clinton was briefed on the situation by Treasury Secretary Robert
Rubin and Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, after his top aides
convened at the White House.

Its easy to see that eventually existing above ground silver stocks will not supply the the deficit gap; furthermore, its quite easy to see why a large investor or group of investors would attempt to have silver on hand to sell at much higher prices when the need comes up.
IMO, Mr. Armstrong's projections of high gold prices ( which is predicts as way off in the future ) would come around much sooner ( say in 6 months or less ) . A silver spike would push gold quite handly.
Armstrong's prestigios clients have much to lose, especially MLPF& S's gold and bond operations. As for "Teddy THE Gold Bear" his job is on the line.
If and when a uncountested silver spike comes, we surely will hear about the huge drop in demand. Why? Cause AG and BR will speak constantly of deflation. MMW

Date: Mon Jan 12 1998 15:32
chas ( Goose re Comex volume ) ID#333447:
The volume I'm getting is 33729. The same as at 10 am. Last several days it has been the same
volume at 8pm as at 10 - 11 am. What's up?? If you would prefer, email is devoto@w3link.com- -
- - thanx

I mainly watch the action on quote.com during the day. I like being able to see where the activity takes place.

I believe that we are at or are nearly at the bottom and that the increase in volume is the inevitable fight that occurs between bulls and bears. I hope this helps.

GC G8
Exchange - COMX


As of: Jan 12, 1998 @ 5:47 pm ET
Last 2791 Change +2
Currency USD % Change +0.07%
Open 2789 Tick +- - +
Bid 2787 Ask 2790
Day Low 2789 Day High 2796
Previous 2789 Volume 33,278
Open 2789 Open Interest 103,788

G'Day Mate,

Your "analysis" is very subjective, and does not equate with the objective FACTS. Simply put, YOU ARE WRONG.

Read the FACTS.......................1997 Report

http://www.arusa.com/

http://www.arusa.com/tmpls/sect2_2.htm

"The 1995 report attempts to calculate the total assets of the federal government. The government's main assets consist of property and equipment, cash, investments and inventories. All totaled, the government has $1.298 trillion in assets.

The liabilities of the federal government were estimated to be $5.810 trillion. These liabilities include debt held as U.S. securities, federal employee pensions and actuarial liabilities, as well as other moneys owed.

Net worth is defined as assets minus liabilities. According to the 1995 report, the net worth of the U.S. government is a negative $4.513 trillion. Theoretically, if the government were to sell

January 12, 1998

NY lawyers deny close to lawsuit on silver market

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - New York lawyers considering potential legal action alleging manipulation of the silver market said Monday they have not yet filed a suit but are still investigating the possibility for such action. "I haven't filed a suit and I'm not close to filing a suit," attorney Chris Lovell of New York law firm Lovell & Stewart said. "But any such action would be under the Commodities Exchange Act for manipulation, if it eventuates."

A spokesman for the New York Mercantile Exchange, which lists silver futures in its COMEX division, said Monday the exchange had no comment on the silver market situation.

But the NYMEX spokesman said the exchange's surveillance department was constantly monitoring the market. Similarly, officials at the Commodities Futures Trading Commission ( CFTC ) in Washington, which regulates commodity futures trading, said Monday they could neither confirm nor deny any inquiry into silver futures trading was under way.

Silver prices have fallen 11 percent in the past three days after talk swirled in the market about potential legal action against alleged manipulation over the past six months.

Spot silver was quoted $5.49/51 an ounce at midday Monday, after falling by 66 cents an ounce in the past three days. "Silver broke down on all sorts of talk about legal action against alleged manipulators of the silver market," said Dinsa Mehta, Chase Manhattan Bank's managing director for global commodities.

"But it's difficult to separate fact from fiction," Mehta added. "To file suit you have to be able to prove damages, and you can't prove damage just because the market went against your position," he said.

Market sources said Monday that silver traders and analysts were consulted last week by the Lovell & Stewart law firm to assess whether evidence of manipulation of the silver market existed. "I was asked by a group of people planning a class action suit to be an expert witness, but I declined to become involved, " Martin Armstrong, director of Princeton Economics Institute, said. "I told them I agreed something was going on in the silver market, and that the market has known about it for months," Armstrong said. "You can't hide an elephant under a rock."

Silver demand for use in photography, jewelry and industry has been exceeding mine supply for most of the decade, drawing down inventories built up in the 1980s. But many traders believe some banks and hedge funds have been taking advantage of the supply- demand equation to push prices higher.

Spot silver prices rose by about 50 percent in five months in late 1997, from a low of $4.17 an ounce on July 17 to a four- year high at $6.39 on Dec. 24, before the rally ended last week.

COMEX warehouse silver inventories fell steadily last year to a 12- year low around 109 million ounces, from 203,450,783 ounces Jan. 1, 1997. But some of the silver may have been moved to bullion bank vaults in London, which are said to be full, sources said.

In addition, prices of silver for immediate delivery rose higher than prices for delivery in the future, a price structure known as backwardation that reflects tight supply. Backwardation of the silver market has not occurred on a sustained basis since 1980, said Jeffrey Christian, managing director of New York- based consultants CPM Group.

In 1979, huge buying of silver by the Hunt Brothers of Texas drove silver prices up to around $50 an ounce, before collapsing.

G'Day Mate,

Your "analysis" is very subjective, and does not equate with the objective FACTS. Simply put, YOU ARE WRONG.

Read the FACTS.......................1997 Report

http://www.arusa.com/
http://www.arusa.com/tmpls/sect2_2.htm

"The 1995 report attempts to calculate the total assets of the federal government. The government's main assets consist of property and equipment, cash, investments and inventories. All totaled, the government has $1.298 trillion in assets.

The liabilities of the federal government were estimated to be $5.810 trillion. These liabilities include debt held as U.S. securities, federal employee pensions and actuarial liabilities, as well as other moneys owed.

Net worth is defined as assets minus liabilities. According to the 1995 report, the net worth of the U.S. government is a negative $4.513 trillion. Theoretically, if the government were to sell all of its assets to pay down its debt, it would not be able to pay its current obligations".

Again, if you are not part of the solution you're part of the problem!

Aye, Haggis

Its easy to see that eventually existing above ground silver stocks will not supply the the deficit gap; furthermore, it's quite easy to see why a large investor or group of investors would attempt to have silver on hand to sell at much higher prices when the need comes up.
IMO, Mr. Armstrong's projections of high gold prices ( which he predicts as way off in the future ) would come around much sooner ( say in 6 months or less ) . A silver spike would push gold quite handly.
Armstrong's prestigios clients have much to lose, especially MLPF& S's gold and bond operations. As for "Teddy THE Gold Bear" his job will be on the line.
If and when a uncountested silver spike comes, we surely will hear about the huge drop in demand. Why? Cause AG and BR will speak constantly of deflation. MMW
Remember most silver production comes as a by- product of lead/zinc/copper ( that SEA and Industrialized North Asia; most likely not require in former quantities ) and since much copper comes from se/ew process which has difficulties winning silver, we may see actual production fall in silver

SPUD and LGB: Sorry to have started such a brouhaha.
LGB: While your rebuttals of Spud and my earlier post were not entire satisfactory to me, I neither have the time, the energy, or the expertise to confirm or refute any of it. I guess that is why economics is an art and not a science. Good people can differ over the interpretation of data and come to different conclusions. I had posted to you several weeks ago in one of those posts of mine that you missed about a LA Times article detailing how the J.P. Getty fund managers managed to lose $400 million betting on a stock crash in 1996 that, obvioulsy, didn't materialize. They were looking at the data ( not listening to Puetz ) and came to the conclusion that it was a good bet. They lost. It is possible to differ on the interpretation of data without having to live on "different planets" as you derisively put it. Nonetheless, the bottom line is that it is hard for an objective observer like myself to come to a definitive conclusion regarding your dispute with Spud. Perhaps a few more data factoids would be appreciated but then we'd all disagree on how to interpret them anyhow. BTW, I'm still in my Silver positon as my reasons for holding it haven't changed.
SPUD: Thank you for your fine point by point rebuttal of LGB and I only know that time will tell whose interpretation of data is correct.

HighRise ( Goldman Sachs ) : I think that your outlook, for gold vis a vis def/inf, is hampered by not accounting for the hellacious debt load the world is carrying. What will be the inevitable result of that debt being called into question. Hells bells, Asia is but a tiny fraction of the US debt load.

What will happen when tax revenues fall in the US and the already overburdened taxpayer refuses to pay more???? What will happen to US debt instruments and the dollar???? ..... Deflation in the US in 1998 is not the same as deflation/depression in the 30s. ..... Disabuse yourself of that thought, this very instant. Ya hear me troop??? : )

In either case, gold wins and wins big. .... end of sermon.

I find it hard to believe that our Reps and Citizens can buy the double- speak from our Treasury and Feds that the bailout of Asia is in the best interest of the American People. Whatever happened to the so called free market system? This constant jaw boning and manipulation of the markets just delays the eventual, namely; A worst scenerio than would otherwise occur if the people and institutions responsible for their mistakes were made to pay as we ordinary peons pay for our mistakes.

These bailouts are really bailouts for the banking practises that caused the problem in the first place. Now instead of making these bankers take their losses or go bankrupt, we are told by RR and AG it's our duty to help Asia, when in reality they mean Chase etal. When are we going to wise up and notify our Reps that , "We won't take it anymore."

DISGRUNTLED

Clinton is good he will get out of this one too. I just hope it doesn't wipe us out in the process.
People around him appear to be expendable.

1. Treasury/Ruben Spin
2. Media Spin
3. Labor, no protectionism give them a
minimum wage increase instead.
4. Positive Financial Reports - CPI,
employment, productivity etc.
5. Medicare Broke - just add the 55 yr. olds
and charge them a fee that will cover the
total short fall. Brilliant!
6. Have a lot of Bonds to sell, just make them
the best deal in the World - the only place to
go.

Have you noticed that Clinton, Ruben and the others are starting to show the stress in their faces? We are in real trouble if something happens to them or the PRINTER.

At a time when every one thought bonds would fail, Clinton has them dumping all they have into the US Bond market. The man is good.
Unfortunately, Gold does not seem to be on his list of things to do.

But, How long can the shell game go on? Watch out Sadam! You may be needed.

You're right about the disappointments of a buy and hold strategy in such volatile issues. I've been holding SSC, waiting for the magic 18 months when Mr. Klinton tells me I'll only owe 20% capital gains taxes when I sell. ( Funny how people like him will eagerly share your profits but are reluctant to front your losses. ) I think that times like these are when dollar cost average buying are particularly comforting. IMHO

WELCOME:
Royal Oak Gold Mines will be hireing 1000 people next year. They are opening their Kemess mine in april it is almost ready and on time. They just announced last week that they obtained the rest of the needed financing. It is to yield 250,000oz yr for at least 16 yrs. The cost per oz is $79US using a $1 credit for copper. You can find them on the net at the goldsheet site, and they have information for employment. The mine is located in British Columbia in western Canada. Good Luck.

The U.S. is financing consumption through selling U.S. assets like real estate, stock and U.S. bonds.

http://www.arusa.com/tmpls/sect5_3.htm

http://www.arusa.com/tmpls/sect5_3a.htm

Aye, Haggis

Our thinking would be at present time...
the 287 level would be at the very top of
a dead cat bounce. 308- 312 looks better.
271 & under looks like a good short.

Date: Mon Jan 12 1998 18:43
Delphi ( @Lurker 777 ) ID#258129:
There was no any - even very local - top or bottom. Whe did you bought options today?

Are you asking what time I purchased the April 280 Puts for $780.?

Around 3:00 I put in buy at $800. or better and got confirmation after the close.

Why, do you think I paid too much?

Have just observed a price fall in the Sydney markets. Bears are everywhere.

What's the prognosis on where this will end. $US 250 on the cards??

Dow/Gold Ratio = 27.62

XAU/Spot Ratio = .222

I too am astonished at gold's downturn. I never thought it would have got below $US280 but it looks like 250 may be on he cards.

I am not a gold bug. But I do see the point in holding the yellow metal as insurance against uncertain times. It amazes me that this seems to be lost from the collective memory.

Mines are closing though, so in some years to come ( 2 or 5? ) there will be a significant rally as production is lower.

The sleeper is gold sales and loans from Central Banks. No one knows what is going to happen there so everyone is bearish fearing that the CBs will sell off their reserves.

Time will tell. Your guess is as good as anyones.

Silver/Gold Ratio = 50.34

"The Oppenheimers of South Africa are much bigger "heavy- weights" than
the Rockefellers. For instance, in 1981 Harry Oppenheimer, chairman of
the giant Anglo American Corporation that controls gold and diamond
mining, sales and distribution in the world, stated that he was about to
launch into the North American banking market. Oppenheimer promptly in-
vested $10 billion in a specially created vehicle for the purpose
of buying into big banks in the U.S., among which was Citicorp.
Oppenheimer's investment vehicle was called Minorco ( Anglo American
Corp ) , which set up shop in Bermuda, a British royal family preserve.
On the board of Minorco was to be found Walter Wriston of Citicorp and
Robert Clare, its chief counsel.
The only other company to rival Oppenheimer in the field of precious
metals and minerals was Consolidated Gold Fields of South Africa, but
Oppenheimer took control of it with a 28% stake the largest single
stockholder. Thus gold, diamonds, platinum, titanium, tantalite, copper,
iron ore, uranium and 52 other metals and minerals, many of them of
absolutely vital strategic value to United States, passed into the hands
of British interests.

Effective control of the South African gold mining industry is held by Sir Harry Oppenheimer and the Anglo American Coporation. To date, the order of 1 200 million ounces of gold has been produced - equating to US$ 360 000 000 000 000.

For comparison, the USA National Debt is $5 479 700 204 736 and the Government Asset Value is $ $1 298 000 000 000.

In other words the total current value of gold produced from South Africa under the business control of the British is greater than the US Government Asset value by an approximate factor of 300.

It is for this reason, LGB2 and KARLITO99, that - "GOLD IS NOT DEAD"!

"HOW's ZAT" !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Would you kindly contact Mr. Mike Kosares at http://cpm@usagold.com>http://cpm@usagold.com or myself at http://STUDIO.R@worldnet.att.net>http://STUDIO.R@worldnet.att.net Thank you.

GFD: That $300 billion ( or pick another number ) is lilliputian compared to ours. And therein lies the kernel of their, Asian, salvation.

We ( US ) have a story to tell and a vested interest in the rest of the world continuing to believe in same. If they, Asians, default, it calls into question the solidity of sovereign debt and the solidarity of a sovereign nation's resolve to repay same. A question which very quickly becomes applied to others who present with large debt loads. Namely, our masters here in the US.

The Asians really do have the west by the 'short and curlies'. It will be interesting to see if they realize it and act accordingly. In any case, it is supreme fun to watch. Ya gotta love it.

The stock market crash is still on course. The broad based
averages, such as the Value Line and Russell 2000 were down
today. Only the blue- chip averages, such as the DJIA and
S& P, rallied. World- wide, almost all markets remain in
bear trends - - with no sign of a reversal.

Today, there were more declining issues than advancing ones on
all 3 markets - - NYSE, OTC, and Amex. The advance- decline line
also broke into new low territory today. The odds of a
full- fledged crash during the rest of January remain high.

I agree, but you have to admit the they are able to get the American People and now the World to buy into their program time and time again.

One would think that the American People would wise up, but they seem to like the current arrangement. Now, the Asians seem to be a little slower in buying into the program but they are coming around.

HighRise

Thanks for information about Royal Oak Mine.

I think that earthquake prediction comes from a guy named Gordon Scallion. Even worse than that is the coastline he predicts for the western U.S. Most of the western states are under water and the beach would be just a few miles from where I live.

Claims he started having visions like Edgar Cayce after a head injury or something to that effect. Some of his predictions I looked up some for around 1995 didn't seem very accurate so I sort of wrote him off. You can probably find something about him on the net if interested.

If you listened to my fiddle playing for very long, say a half hour, I'm pretty sure it would throw you off so badly you'd have to go listen to a jet engine or a rap band to get the hacking out of your head so you could play again. The same is true about my tennis game. I've had opponents throw down their raquets and leave the court, telling me it would take weeks for their games to recover.

Point being, argument with amateur investors is dangerous as well as useless. IMHO

Thanks for information about Royal Oak Mine.

Barb,

I have about $2000.00 gambling money left for options. As you know I am loaded with physical and $287 is the last price I can buy Philharmoniker coins below $300. I believe we are going lower and want to ride this train. What month/strike price/price would you buy tomorrow if gold was between $278.- $275.? Thanks

I've noticed that DROOY was up 12% today, to close at $1.75, when
the gold stocks continued to get beaten down. Does anyone know of
any released news with the company?

It appears the silver bull is dead. If there was an attempt to corner the market it is now over. The law is investigated; people will get frightened off.

On the other hand, if supply is low it may still be owrth buying the white metal.

Will buy if it returns to $US 4.70ish.

Off topic, but continuing a previous thread:

Took me some time to find it, but I knew this was somewhere on the net - a tidal force earthquake prediction system ( with SPECIFIC dates, places, and magnitudes ) Check out predictions for 1998.
http://darien.edu/lee.html
****************************
Bart - Is something wrong with the Full Index screen, or is it my machine? I can only enter a post from the short- text screen.

6pak: Just imagine that: ".... banks and hedge funds are taking ( unfair?? ) advantage of the supply demand situation". How could they be so unfeeling and rapacious?? ..... Doesn't anyone realize that major BIG Money is involved here?? .... and BIG, REALLY BIG, money can never lose??

What unmitigated crap. ..... T1, please pass the Cuervo. I think I need one. With a depth charge.

Dave, this PCK, I mean "99", is not here any more.

Looks like "99" refused to be eaten and simply chickened
out. Very bad, now I am forced to go out for a Subway's
B.M.T - I'm hungry tonight.

Would like very much, but afraid to touch ANOTHER - so
many good people respect him/her. Still think it can be
a good meal in some time...

Does that statement make you burn?

I attempted to do my part in the war against the fiat. But I am affraid I am over my head. There is a war going on in the Asian newsgroups that I think I started so I need to call out the reserves. I am just a foot soldier and did my part, but I am unable to explain with as much grace and directness as the CO's and NCO's here can. So I ask you folks to make your presense known by visiting any one of the below newsgroups, since the war is cross- posted on them all and look for the thread called "Buy Gold!!!" and go and do your part for THE GLORY OF GOLD!!! TO VICTORY!!!

soc.culture.singapore
soc.culture.indonesia
soc.culture.malaysia
soc.culture.thai
soc.culture.filipino
soc.culture.vietnamese

May Got bless you all!

link left out www

should be

http://www.darien.edu/lee.html

sorry.

It is something to behold. The current administration, our elected officials, sending their appointed representatives from the private bankers, Goldman Sachs, Chase and others around the globe, at tax payers expense, trying to keep the private bankers loans above water, by lending the public's money, through the IMF to the private bankers creditors who inturn give our money to the Private Bankers.

If they are doing this with the US $ what do you suppose they are doing with our Gold? The average American doesn't even know who Ruben is let alone where Fort Knox is.

HighRise
PS: Kitco is really slow again. I went out and made a sandwich while waiting on this form.

Maybe I should learn to type. Third time's the charm......

http://www.damien.edu/lee.html

Puetz: Let me add, NY 66 new highs VS 180 new lows,
very bearish and contradicts the actual rise in the Dow.
I wouldn't call this a banner day on wall street.

After 35+ yrs doing this krap...
We are happily on the side lines.
We would buy cautiously at 308 and
vigorously short at 271.
We do not play options...As we would
rather play poker with futures for
quick & easy Kill or Be Killed!

"What unmitigated crap!"
Well Put.

HighRise

I do options in Amsterdam, there are no April 280 available here. For May 280 put - better then April - yesterdays price - probably, higher then today - was: buy: $700, sell 800, advise 750. But my question was different: why buy puts today - any reason for gold to go deeper soon?

High Rise: "Watch out Sadam! You may be needed." ...... This weekend, someone posted a comment on our ( US ) need for dictators in the world. I thought it was apt. Having thoght about it some more, I now I consider it a vital, integral, part of our foreign and financial policy.

As long as tyrants abound in the world, ( not difficult to imagine ) , there will remain a deep and abiding need for someone to control them. .... drum roll please ....... enter Uncle Sam with his really big guns and heavy debt. ..... please ignore the debt and concentrate on the guns. OK?.

We took advantage of the free ( ? ) world during the cold war. As the only super power, we did as we damned well pleased because the rest of the world needed us to ward off the forces of evil. Now that the evil Russian Bear is no longer a threat; how will we frighten the hell out of humanity and continue to maintain our ability to spend like a drunken sailor???

Saddam?? Saddam?? Where the hell are you? ..... Or pick a tyrant du jour.

Studio, ANOTHER called me and asked me to tell
you that he is sorry.He also said that it will
come very soon.He said the gold will trade no
more, but oil will... He said he tried to call
London to trade gold, but all PM brokers over there
were drunk, but oil brokers were all right...

He then confessed that he is a close relative of
Prince Hasim Rakhman and he is no more to talk to me
for now, but will call again...

Flash ( Gold is a valuable commodity. Gold is not real money

If you will tell me HOW to contact those newsgroups, I will do as you suggest.

For any of you out there that are confused
about where spot silver really is......
It's between 5& 6 cents off March COMEX in
the real trading world. And we are still in
backwardation!

I am of one with those who remain incensed at the bombing.

I have had and still retain, a question ( as yet unanswered by the USG ) .
Where WERE the ATF and DEA agents who were headquartered in the Murrah Bldg at the time of the explosion?

That question deserves an answer. There were NO ATF OR DEA casualties that day of infamy. ( Fom FDR )

Prior to retirement, I had dealings with both groups. Never have I known there to be NO agents around the offices on a work day.

There are engineers who post this forum who should be able to figure out how an UNCONTAINED charge ( such as purportedly did the job ) could destroy a relatively new structure made of re- inforced concrete and fail to destroy a vintage 1900 steel bones and brick skin structure across the street at nearly the exact same distance from the Ryder Truck?

I was in the Murrah Bldg a dozen years or so ago.
I also worked with ammonium nitrate and tnt aS WELL AS DYNAMITE, C3, C4.

The reinforced header across the front of the building at the second story was 5' x 4' square.

This fact as well as the other two questions should give anyone who knows even a little about explosives reason to question the "facts" given the public.

For good measure, from whence came the other shock registered on the seismograph at the U of Oklahoma at Norman 15 miles away?

Maybe it was due to the charge that loosened the header spoken of above?

Still curious I am!

Using the path of the 1993 march silver contract as a guide;

1993 1998
wave 3 was slightly more wave 3 was slightly less
then 1.618 x wave 1 then 1.618 x wave 1

wave 4 was slightly more if wave 4 is .618 of
then .618 x wave 3 wave 3 it would = 5.35

wave 5 was almost if wave 5 is equal to waves
exactly 1 x waves 0- 3 0- 3 added to 4, the wave 5 top
added to wave 4 should be between 7.35- 7.40

DROOY up on recommendation in Forbes magazine today. ( posted yesterday on this forum )

go to http://www.forbes.com

use quick search for word gold

article under commodities 1/12/98

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Barb Hughes: Short from $271??? ..... As opposed to $279??? ... the trend is your friend. No? ..... go for it.

My heart weeps for the innocents,especially the wee ones,in the Murrah building.However, my heart pumps piss for those bastards who orchestrated ( ORCHESTRATED!! ) Waco,and like it or not, they ARE connected.
They'll only push us so far.

LGB: I have neither the time nor the inclination to insert myself into the many ongoing foodfights you seem to be unable to avoid on Kitco. But I must call you to task for your 16:23 post, wherein you asserted that the founding fathers thought they were founding a 'democracy'. That could not be farther from the truth. If you had ever read ANY primary source, i.e., "The Federalist" or the papers or memiors of ANY of the men of 1776, you would know that they feared the "excesses of democracy" at least as much as they hated the British monarchy. And they stated such repeatedly. Furthermore, you would be hard pressed to find ANY reference to the U.S. as a democracy by ANY knowledgeable person, either in politics or academia, before the second world war.

"Democracy" is merely the vehicle of choice for those who would control our lives by controlling the votes of a vast unproductive "voting class" of beneficiaries and functionaries of the modern welfare state.

For sources, you could start with "The Federalist", By Hamilton, Madison and Jay.

Today was a classic example of the power of the boys at work.
Option burn.
These guys can and will send the market to where they want it.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
: It is imperative that the IMF be fully funded, lest some of Rubin's clients- - - - or, even worse, Goldie itself- - - might be exposed to the vicissitudes of the marketplace. That MUST not be allowed to happen.

I think the market's in deep trouble this year. But I'll wager we're higher on 1/31 than we are now. gonna pack it in, now and take a new look in the a.m. I think everyone who sells in the morning is gonna get trapped. gone.

Biggest globex volume I ever saw down there during last hr of g'bex. Open caught 'em all. Vicious.

This was a little more violent than I expected. Course when all the bears get slaughtered by the open, there aint a hell of a lot to hold it down. Same thing gonna happen to the bulls in a couple of days: )

this thing moves up till wed noon, unless more really bad new news comes from asia, then when all the call buyers are happy the call sellers will kill 'em.

That's the way it works. The Put buyers were happy campers at 9 a.m. today.: )

If you think this was FAST, just wait til the down draft starts: )

the move down to get rid of those calls will be ugly, but when? Tues. or Wed. or even the amazing Thursday selloff.

also just let you all know that there could be some more big investment banks going down this week.....not that the US gives a hoot anyway
japan...I've also noticed that merill Lynch is becoming just as stupid as Citi corp.....buying debt......They will never learn

A blow- off bottom in the Hang Seng yesterday?

OR

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:05
Puetz ( bpuetz@holli.com ) ID#222167:
The s**t just hit the fan. Hong Kong opens down nearly 1000
points. Wanna know the next crisis point - - Hong Kong!

The crash has begun!!!!

I hope this makes more sense,

Using the path of the 1993 march silver contract as a guide;

1993 1998
wave 3 was slightly more wave 3 was slightly less
then 1.618 x wave 1 then 1.618 x wave 1

wave 4 was slightly more if wave 4 is .618 of
then .618 x wave 3 wave 3 it would = 5.35

wave 5 was almost if wave 5 is equal to waves
exactly 1 x waves 0- 3 0- 3 added to 4, the wave 5 top
added to wave 4 should be between 7.35- 7.40

Delphi,

After today's action I Feel gold is headed lower. I don't see any support until the shorts quit. $280 should have been good support with all the turmoil in Asia and uncertainly in our

markets but the opposite happened and our DJIA and bonds went higher. THE DOLLAR IS KING for now.

I think I will buy two more April 280 puts for around $800. tomorrow. Take a look: http://router.minot.com/~bohl/history/option/Gold

"The vital few against the trivial many"

Puetz, your 20:07 - No, not again. No crash in 24 hours. Tonight Asia will be mixed or even in plus, tomorrow Europe and US will go up.

Flash - I like your style. Apparently nobody picked up on your desperate appeal for reinforcements. I hate the typical newsgroups and am not an articulate spokesman for "the cause" but feel compelled to investigate the furor in your recently stirred hornet's nest. Surely Farfel and Haggis would be willing t come to your aid.

All: I checked my tide/solar eclipse numbers when I got home. Using Bay of Fundy tide model data ( Burntcoat Head ) we have the following dates for unusally high full tides:
Time is in local standard time, height is in meters
Jan 30, 1998 14:24hours 15.3 meters
Jan 31, 1998 02:51hours 15.1 meters
Feb 4, 1998 06:28hours 13.94 meters
Feb 12, 1998 13:32 hours 13.7 meters
Feb 13, 1998 01:54 hours 13.49 meters
Feb 28, 1998 14:05 hours 15.71 meters
Mar 1, 1998 02:31 hours 15.65 meters

This is part of a cluster of unusually high tides, even for the bay of fundy - a peak that occurs only about every 18.6 years, due to precession of the moon's elliptic orbit. The New Moon/total solar eclipse is on Feb 26 ( not Feb 28 ) . The tidal intensity index is a measure of the strength and duration of the high tides, associated with the alignments of sun and moon, and probably is a good predictor of tidal stress on the earth. Tidal intensity index near Feb 26 is 13.0 arbitrary units.
The last time tides were comparable to this was Jan 1979 ( collectively, not individually ) , with a mean tidal intensity index of 11 arbitrary units. At tidal minima such as the time of the 1987 crash, the tidal intensity index was a minimum, at about 1 unit. On June 1929, another minimum in the 18.6 year cycle, the tidal intensity was also 1 unit. Interestingly there is another tidal intensity minimum at about Mar 1933, of 2 units. These tidal intensity minima are statistically associated with ElNinos ( I think one year later ) .

I don't know why the biggest high tide is Feb 28 - - two days later after the eclipse. This may be a Fundy resonance effect of some kind. Regardless, the date for increased frequency of all types of earth quakes should be within +/- one day of Feb 26. On our current full moon ( Jan 12 ) we had two major earthquakes within about 24 hours of the full moon date, as you all know.

It will be interesting to see what happens. I'll just tell you that I do not understand any of this data well enough to say anything about the markets.

http://nypostonline.com/business/2524.htm
FED HEAD WHISTLES PAST ECONOMIC GRAVEYARD

Swing chart updated.
Still on a sell.
But with the way that these markets are being played,
It could soon be whipsawed up.
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Swede1.gif

For any of you out there that are confused
about where spot silver really is......
It's between 5& 6 cents off March COMEX in
the real trading world. And we are still in
backwardation!
Also: Copper, if anyone is interested, we
think from what we have heard, about mine
budgets...most have pegged 98' opperations
around 72 cents. As we all know, I hope, Gold
& Silver are freebies from copper mine'ng
opperations. Henceforth: If copper goes below
the 72 cents, it should be bullish for gold &
silver as many mines here, in AZ ...which is
one of the worlds largest copper producers..
will just shut down for more favorable prices.
ON the other hand...If copper trades back towards
the 80's more mines will re- open which should
put more downward pressure on AG and AU.

This has been a FREE investment seminar.
We are about 61.43% in the bag, probably
time to have Dinner.


This site much better than SHRINK and a whale of a
lot cheaper...and friend'ler!

If it ain't true, sure would make a good screenplay. Wonder who has the rights??

If it is true, and they make a screenplay anyway, nobody will be able to afford the admission - will be priced in gold!!

Oldman: Bravo. Bravo. Your efforts are no more than casting pearls before the dyslexic but Bravo, nonetheless.

Vronsky!
If you are using MS Internet Explorer ( v3 ) :

Click "Mail"
Click "Read News"
Click "NewsGroups"

Then scroll through the groups, they are listed alpabetically.
Then click on the appropriate newsgroup.

Anyone have the instructions for Vronsky on accesing newsgroups using Netscape?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Gold is a valuable commodity. Gold is not real money.

Does that statement make you burn?

I attempted to do my part in the war against the fiat. But I am affraid I am over my head. There is a war going on in the Asian newsgroups that I think I started so I need to call out the reserves. I am just a foot soldier and did my part, but I am unable to explain with as much grace and directness as the CO's and NCO's here can. So I ask you folks to make your presense known by visiting any one of the below newsgroups, since the war is cross- posted on them all and look for the thread called "Buy Gold!!!" and go and do your part for THE GLORY OF GOLD!!! TO VICTORY!!!

soc.culture.singapore
soc.culture.indonesia
soc.culture.malaysia
soc.culture.thai
soc.culture.filipino
soc.culture.vietnamese

May Got bless you all!

Lurker 777
You also take a look:
http://www.aex- optiebeurs.nl/stat/GD.htm
Its a Dutch page, but text is mainly English and prices for PM are in US$. By the way, open interest for calls is more then 2 times higher, then for puts. About todays action - not sure how it works, but sometimes Dow and Gold goes together - up and down - like it was before mini- crash in October.

Sharefin: "Today was a classic example of the power of the boys at work."

T'was like Strad playin' his fiddle. A strong move down on the open 'n then. ...... then the rest is history, as they say. It is becoming classic comic opera. Eh?

Life is but a dream.

Well, Flash, you have stirred up a hornet's nest! It's amazing to see that American stupidity is so quickly catching on in Thailand. About the third post I read contained the following:

"Interest rates for fix accounts ( 3 months or more ) in Thai commercial
banks are now about 11% for large banks and up to 15- 16% for medium to
small banks. Don't worry that that the ( small ) banks may bankcrupt since
the government DOES guarantee all deposit money 100% .

Why keep money in US or Japanese banks wherer interest rates are
only 2- 4% ? :- ) "

Some of you may remember my post of a day or two concerning the Nikkei news report of the joint effort of the IMF and 11 Central Banks to "strong arm" private banks into rolling over Korean bank loans. Everybody is expecting a handout! The dependency is endemic and will create an epidemic!

Earl
Could he take a hint. NOT.

Singapore up 6%
HK up 4.5%
Malaysia up 3.5%
Philipines up 2.1%

China down 4.5%

Looks like there's one in every crowd.

Amazing the soothing balm on global equities,
When the Dow roars up 66pts.
Or 200pts from the low of the day.

It seems that supply of physical is waning,if not drying up,indicating ,at least in a classical sense,that the price of bullion should be skyrocketing.
The reality of the situation is ,however, that physical golld is a small % of what is now known as the "gold market"
I hear many of you berating the "debt based nature of the dollar" but I fail to grasp the differance between the philosophy of gold futures and equity futures.Fact is , as all us physical holders are finding out,you future speculators have corrupted/polluted the AU market just like the money speculators you abhorr.

Watched part of Jim Lehrer, had Walter Mondale, Winston Lord, and Paul Krugman ( MIT ) on. The Propaganda machine to sell the bail out of the banks and brokerage houses from Asia is at warp speed. Jim was throwing puffballs and these jerks were explaining how all the markets were linked, and for life on this planet to continue we have to make these bastards whole. The same thing happened on CNN crossfire.

Delphi what is the most popular 1 oz. gold bullion coin in Europe? I heard it was the Austrain Philharmoniker.

I could not access your site.

IT'S THE TRUTH THAT'S BEING DEVALUED

Dr. Paul Hein explains the significant difference between the real devaluation of a currency versus its change in parity with the dollar. It is indeed an interesting distinction - which at least to me - not readily apparent. Dr. Hein uses the rapidly wasting away of the Indonesian rupiah as a perfect example.

Dr. Hein also blames greedy international bankers for the Asian currency chaos - - by overloading the Tiger economies with loan money that could not be put to effective and productive use to generate enough cash flow to pay on- going interest, and eventually loan amortization. Once the hapless country is unable to service burgeoning loans, the IMF is called in to administer the coup- de- grace in the form of chokingly stringent economic restrictions.

To read the report, copy & paste ABOVE URL to your Internet call- up window ( Location or Go To ) , then hit ENTER.

There was a recent post which stated that ANOTHER's words had been published by a financial journal ( English? ) . Does anyone recall when this post occured?

No idea about coins. Link realy does not work - I've tried now. Try this:
http://www.aex- optiebeurs.nl/f2.htm
At the left side of the window click a bottom button ( gives hint "Statistiek" ) , then scroll down till "VALUTA'S & COMMODITIES" section and then click on "GD"

Lee at the link I previously cited, calls for major ( greater than 7 on Richter scale ) quakes on Feb 26 +/- one day in following locations:

Iran
San Francisco, CA
Charleston, SC

that you may be associated with Delphi Packard?

jcy: You picked the right newsgroup. Thats where the first shot rang out.

I visit this group frequently since I have to travel there often. There are many Thai
university students and professors that read it. Unfortunately they are digesting the western "fiat" govm't BS. It seems that none of them understand the fact that if they had purchased gold immeadiately after the devaluation, the average Thai on the street would have been way ahead in this war. But, what that would have done to the bank loans, the Thai govm't, and inevitable defaults is beyond my comprehension.

Flash ( vronsky ( FAR- EAST NEWSGROUPS ) - Don't use MS Explore

Oldman: I learned from your avid posts that on Friday you thought the sp- 500 was going to go up Monday, despite all the red ink all over the world. How did you know that, and why do you think we are heading south this week?

I am not talking about the long term fundamentals - - just your short term technical impression. Thanks in advance!

Oldman: I learned from your avid posts that on Friday you thought the sp- 500 was going to go up Monday, despite all the red ink all over the world. How did you know that, and why do you think we are heading south this week?

I am not talking about the long term fundamentals - - just your short term technical impression. Thanks in advance!

jcy: You picked the right newsgroup. Thats where the first shot rang out.

I visit this group frequently since I have to travel there often. There are many Thai
university students and professors that read it. Unfortunately they are digesting the western "fiat" govm't BS. It seems that none of them understand the fact that if they had purchased gold immeadiately after the devaluation, the average Thai on the street would have been way ahead in this war. But, what that would have done to the bank loans, the Thai govm't, and inevitable defaults is beyond my comprehension.

Flash's Flaming Fanny : ) )

Oldman: I learned from your avid posts that on Friday you thought the sp- 500 was going to go up Monday, despite all the red ink all over the world. How did you know that, and why do you think we are heading south this week?

I am not talking about the long term fundamentals - - just your short term technical impression. Thanks in advance!

The right link is: http://www.aex- optiebeurs.nl/f2.htm
I have copied and pasted it, have no idea, why it added a space after aex- Sorry.

Again, a space after aex- Not on my "message screen", when I post it. Just remove this space in "Location" - if you use Netscape

Didn't intend to demean the Mr. Lee site. I thought you mentioned Matrix Institute which I believe G. Scallion ( who also predicts earthquakes ) is associated with. Thanks.