Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 00:09 - ID#335190)
This May have been posted @ Derivatives losses allegedly in the Billions last year
anuary 30, 1998
Swiss UBS leaps on disclosure bandwagon

ZURICH, Switzerland ( Reuters ) - Union Bank of Switzerland, Switzerland's largest bank in terms of assets, became the latest in a series of big European banks to disclose its business problems, as it detailed losses last year linked to derivatives trade.

"Persistent rumors of losses in the derivatives business allegedly measuring in the billions, and improper use of options, have prompted UBS to state its position on the matter," the bank said Friday.

It reiterated it had losses of 200 million Swiss francs ( $135.5 million ) in its equities derivatives business in the first half of 1997. "In addition, difficult worldwide market conditions with record high volatility led to additional losses of around $90 million in the ordinary equity derivatives business during the closing months of the year," UBS said.

It also said that group profit will still be close to the expected figure of about $2 billion. Analysts said UBS may have taken heart from recent disclosures by two other big European banks in the past week, which were seen ultimately beneficial for their shares.

Wednesday, Deutsche Bank, under new chief executive Rolf Breuer, said it was setting aside $765.1 million against exposure on some risky southeast Asian loans. France's Societe Generale also said last Friday it would set aside at least one billion French francs to provision for its Asian exposure.

Market analysts and investors saw the willingness to disclose such information as positive."One cannot just show the share market the nice things, one also must show the bad things. This enhances trust," said Stefan Ermisch, equity analyst at WestLB in Dusseldorf, Germany.

"The banks are being forced to do this. Shareholders want to know. The pressure on management is getting greater due to a shareholder value-oriented mentality," Ermisch said.

The policy to tell all, or at least more, is in line with other such efforts to boost shareholder value, he said. UBS's share price rose Friday in anticipation of its announcement, which came after the bourse close, and was timed just days before an extraordinary meeting by UBS shareholders to vote on its plans to merge with Swiss Bank Corp.

Analyst Christoph Bieri at Zuercher Kantonalbank said of UBS's disclosure Friday that what may have been even more worrying was that perhaps UBS itself did not know the extent of its losses. "It is certainly poor information, and if they didn't know better, that makes it worse," he said.Swiss banks generally are viewed as opaque in their reporting practices, despite recent improvements.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 00:11 - ID#26669)
Chrerokee, Fatal error in your post!!!
The antibiotic measurement conversion tables on your MBW post are all wrong. One gram equals 1000 milligrams, one teaspoon equals 5 cc's and different weight of grams depending on specific gravity, ( for instance 5x.8 or 4 grams of a substance with specific weight of 0.8 ) , and one Troy or apothocaries ounce equals about 31.1 grams. And any fool who takes veterinary grade streptomycin derivatives is liable to wake up with his kidneys and ears destroyed by the chemical. Geeze!

And I wasn't going to get into any tangential arguments tonight! ;- )

(Sat Jan 31 1998 00:18 - ID#250251)
Antibiotic doses
Right on 223 in my medical opinion use of vetinary medicines courts disaster.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 00:23 - ID#17155)
Bubba's Adventures, Hitler's Testicles, and GOLD!!!
In case anybody wonders why so many American women are attracted to Bubba ( YUUUUUCK!!! ) , let me remind everybody that Hitler ( in his days ) was Germany's "most eligible bachelor;" and German women at the very sight of the "fuhrer" were peeing in their panties. So after all, we are not seeing anything that the world's history did not see before. Levinsky's parents must be very proud!!! Such an honor!!! Their very daughter given a chance to suck you know what!!!

One very important difference, however, was that Hitler could control himself. He had only one love ( she committed suicide, wonder why?! ) . The fact that Hitler had only one testicle must have helped though.

Seeing Americans being led by a creature whose self control and manners are below those of my dog, I see a bright future for all my gold.

After all, since Caligula, no bigger piece of scum was put in a position of greater importance. Such a setup, historically, has always led to a massive war.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 00:34 - ID#252127)
No Love for Bill, but......

That Tripp woman has to be Janet Reno's sister, mon shes ugly.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 00:40 - ID#401460)
The Good Ole US of A

Just has to be a ball of laughs in Junior High Current Events Classes these days.

And can't you hear a 6th grade teacher explaining why the President of The United States may be impeached.

Fits right in with the Homosexual and Condom classes doesn't it.

Home Economics now focuses on how to collect a welfare check.


(Sat Jan 31 1998 00:48 - ID#252127)

I don't know if Clinton speaks the truth, nor do I know If Andy's UBS speaks with a forked tounge; but I do know that that Tripp woman is one ugly broad.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 00:57 - ID#257148)
joining in the fun, and bearing witness to extraordinary affairs...
But it does offer an interesting lesson in etymology:

Clinton is giving testimony - the word testimony is derived from the Latin Testis - to give a witness.

It will probably suprise Prometheus, but the word testicle is also derived from the Latin word Testis, to give a witness. Derived from giving witness that said Roman citizen was a man and therefore owed certain rights.

One should ask, I suppose, "Whose testimonials will impeach Clinton?"

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 01:05 - ID#24135)
Tough Guys dont eat Dates
For selby
Ray as usual said it all. I still prefer
Harmony until gold gets going and establishes a bull
move. Then DD is the place I will be. The numbers are
easy - 110 plus mill oz of reserves, 39mill shares of
stock, at 3 bucks. ABX 51 mill oz of reserves, 373 mill
shares of stock at 20 bucks.
I found cans of DWARFAWAY are available at some
super markets. and With numbers like that I can live
with a few dwarves - maybe they can be put to use.
For LGB2 - agree your post on Clarence Thomas
For themissinglink - you are right about the
aftermath of US action in the middle east. It is
a transparant self serving use of force to try to
present a degenerate and cowardly president as a
tough guy to his sitcom watching constituency.
It will be seen as such in the Middle East. Actions
like this can weaken already dwindling US support
in countries that are shaky - Jordan and more important
Turkey ( already angry over the new Greek air base on
Cyprus and Greek manipulations against them in the
EU ) . Arabia has no choice but the US ( but it is a
weak military country ) - Except for the Royal Guard
in Ryad, I would be surprised to see Saudis fight at
all. I always wondered how they got the Saudi units
to fight in Desert Storm. Maybe Spielberg was brought
in to stage the filming. Ive seen Saudi street fights
- kind of like lady wrestling in white robes.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 01:08 - ID#302251)

Date: Fri Jan 30 1998 22:52
Lurker 777 ( Cherokee ) ID#317247:
Date: Fri Jan 30 1998 21:21

cherokee Re: anthrax

............ Anthrax is no joke and the public is not aware. ......
The Isralli Government see fit to issue gas masks to their population but
the U.S. is in denial. ...........


No, we are not in denial, Lurker 777,
This is a clear plan to exterminate 80% of humanity.
They think that we just have too many people here.


There are already underground cities
to house our Elite,
so there is nothing for you to worry about.
They will be OK for about 4 years
until things cool down on the surface.
It was all planned in advance.
One of these cities is in Colorado,
and I read many references to it on the Internet.
Art Bell cynically joked about it often.

AND...after 4 years,
they will get out of their tunnels..
smell the fresh air.........
stretch their arms.......
and guess what...........
They will print a new money again.

Whoooops.....NO !
They will not need to print money,
they will have all your GOLD.

Hard to believe ah?
Just as it was hard for you to believe that Anthrax is already here ?
Just as it was hard for you to believe that UFOs are real ?
Just as it was hard for you to believe in Remote Viewing ?
Just as it was hard for you to believe that Psychic Powers are real ?

Wake up America.
Why do you always believe only
when events passed the point of NO-RETURN ?

Actually, there is nothing to get excited about,
as I believe in reincarnation.
So let us play our rolls in this lifetime...

In my next life time I will be a Central Bank Manager,
so I will not have to post at Kitco.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 01:12 - ID#26669)
Two articles from Reuters bizzzzzzzness reports discuss the heating economy and try to downplay it. The reporters ( as well as many Kitcoites we all know and love but won't name ) seem much more interested in the gossip from the W'ite House, the Far Out East and Baggydad.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 01:14 - ID#24135)
Mugging while dangerous is at least efficient
to all
The figure of 27 per cent goodies actually reaching the
starving masses after passing through the stickey fingers
of the caring liberals who distribute the taxes paid by
OTHERS to them is a BIG improvement. It used to be about
10 per cent.
Mugging is dangerous - but at least the wealth is
distributed on a one to one basis without the intervention
of a social worker or pious liberal. I prefer dealing direct

Yellow Jacket__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 01:15 - ID#4289)
Petronius: Excellent. Sharp post that captures the moment.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 01:22 - ID#267298)
Sick Society
We truly live in a sick society.

Bill Clinton, President of the US of A, an admitted liar ( the Flowers affair )
is riding high in the polls. How much sicker can this society become????

(Sat Jan 31 1998 01:24 - ID#287207)
John Disney: I have got the idea that DD is highly geared. Have you figured out a range where it might start to move in keeping with the leverage. Toronto just lost its midget-- a football player Doug Flutie--to Buffalo where he has been labelled a midget at 5' 10".

(Sat Jan 31 1998 01:33 - ID#31868)
Hmmmmmm, Ziva, Hmmmmmm
750,000,000 people living underground for 4 years?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 01:35 - ID#335184)
Being one sheet to the wind, in this judgmental mood, I must say, you are one sick new aged puppy in need of a homeopathic vet !
You are in open revolt against all that is binding & worth conserving &
I honestly can't remember the rest of your crimes against common & transcendental sense.
Live long & prosper.

Tar Baby

(Sat Jan 31 1998 01:40 - ID#255151)
Good Read Here
From the lead story of the latest issue of The Economist

(Sat Jan 31 1998 01:42 - ID#302251)
I didnt think I am that good.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 01:51 - ID#302251)

Date: Sat Jan 31 1998 01:33
tolerant1 ( Hmmmmmm, Ziva, Hmmmmmm ) ID#31868:
750,000,000 people living underground for 4 years?


who said 750.000.000 ?

Only the Elite
Less than a million probably.

and that probably includes all the service people
that were already abducted to work there,
according to some Internet sources.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 01:55 - ID#238422)
It's wrong to compare Ziva to puppy.
Puppy is usually young and nice-looking,
puppy is fun.

But I got pretty much the same feeling
you got - I wanna puke...

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 01:58 - ID#24135)
thats a good size midget you got there
For selby
Yes I do and I said so when I posted the DD results.
How do dat search engine work?? I dont want to do the calculation
again - this dwarf snapping at my heels is wearing me out.
hard headed little bugger - but he is cute when he plays
BANKER and he's been quiet lately ( praise Al'lah for small
favours ) . I THINK DD breaks even around 330 but it would be
nice to use the search engine and find out for sure - Ziva does
it why cant I??

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:01 - ID#24135)
Iis nice to have the calming infuence of Oris
Hi Oris.
Where have you been old buddy. AND did you bring those
silver bullets???

(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:04 - ID#287207)
John disney: Midget and search Engine gone. I don't see it here anywhere

Yellow Jacket__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:04 - ID#4289)
Tarnished Silver
Myrmidon: I am not a chemist, only a chemical engineer, but perhaps can help. The reason that the silverware tarnishes is, as most people know, that the surface metal oxidizes. The metallic oxide is not pure metal but molecules composed of one or more of the metal atoms bound to one or more oxygen atoms. Not being the chemist I'm not sure, but I think that the oxide of silver is simply AgO, one silver atom bound to one oxygen atom. As such, it possesses different characteristics than the base metal which, unfortunately, include a difference in color. The best way to prevent this oxidation is to, immediately after polishing, cover the metallic surface with a coating which will seal off the surrounding air. This is the way that brass fixtures have their shine preserved by the manufacturer. They apply a coat of shellac or polymer to the piece. After a few scrubs by a meticulous housekeeper ( notice my political correctness in avoiding the term 'housewife' ) , the coating will begin to wear, exposing the brass to the air and its concomitant moisture, and the brass will dull. You could, of course, buy a can of industrial strengtht man-o-war varnish and coat away, but I would not recommend it. The problem with the silverware is that you may use it to eat, so it would not be a good idea to coat it like that. And if they are antiques, refrain from coating them with anything at all, or you may destroy their value. If they are only decorative and you do not use them for eating, there is one thing you may want to try with one or two pieces as an experiment. I once polished an antique brass sheet and then decided to coat it with Butcher's Wax. It wipes on as a damp waxy paste, but dries clear. It's been nearly three years and the piece is still shining. I can't promise you it'll work on your silver, but it shouldn't hurt it either. It's up to you.

If you do use them at the table, there are some things you can do, but which do not eliminate an occasional fastidious polishing. You'll find some professional advise at this site. They can even get you replacement items for your discontinued patterns! Try it.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:08 - ID#24135)
Im cracking up
For Oris
Look at my SPELLING - Im a mess - my ankles are chewed to
bits - Dwarves have teeth like JAWS - thank Al'lah this one
isnt 5 foot 10 or I'd be a gonner - But he DOES have a
mouth on him nevertheless.
Hi Zeb. Wanna go a few rounds??

(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:13 - ID#26669)
Tarnished insomniacs
Repeat after me: Silver sulphides. Again: Silver sulphides. Goodnight all.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:13 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Hi, John,

I'm still here.
Worked pretty hard today, got tired
a little bit. Got your mail and also
got your brand new camel by UPS
( my fees for protecting you from enemies ) .
Camel looks good. But it seems like camel
is still missing the desert. I offered
camel a shot of vodka, but camel asked for
beer. Need to run to Meyers to get some...

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:17 - ID#24135)
Dont mess with silver
For whoever
Just polish your silver every so often with silver polish and
a soft cloth. Dont coat it with anything for al'lah's sake.
Goes double for bronze where patina is everything. Polishing
silver goes with the territory and gives you chance to feel it,
rub it, fondle it, squeeze it, enjoy the cool touch of it ...
Hey I forgot -- I gotta get to Musqat.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:21 - ID#24135)
Once upon a time in Ethiopia
For Ryder
I want to know more about that close up work. Are you an
Anthrax inspector ?? Where do I sign up ??

(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:24 - ID#302251)

Date: Sat Jan 24 1998 00:13
mozel ( lawful money ) ID#153102:

We are dumbed down.

We are compelled to attend government schools and disinformed from the
beginning. The newspapers and other media sell us the version of yesterday
and today that serves the Corporate Socialist agenda.
It is called the national agenda, this agenda of the federal demon- cracy,
the capitol of the greenback empire. The acceptable version was written of
our history. Now the acceptable version of history is broadcast to us as
current events. We must be dumbed down. For the con men to keep up the

John D. Rockefeller was a dishonest, cheat. Yet, he, and many like him,
were able to keep ill got gain after the War of Northern Aggression in a
way that few had done prior to the War. How could this happen where the
law was to uphold the honest and not to reward the dishonest ? The
obvious conclusion is that justice was obstructed. The law and the
Constitution were subverted. It happened when the post- War 14th
Amendment was read to mean that a corporation was a person, having
rights equal to any other person. The corporation was by this given the
protection of the federal. The era of the greenback attorney in the service
not of just law, but of profitable legalities, had begun. The monoploy of
the Bar Association soon followed. What chance did the honest man have
of getting just law when the legality of anything was for sale in the lobby
of Congress and eventually in the lobby of every legislature. If you want
to ruin a nation, corrupt its law. Make words mean what they do not seem
to mean. Practice word art. Bring in the set up case to establish case law
for the agenda. Make moot the case that would expose the agenda by
settling it in secret. Publish only the court decisions which support the
agenda. Use Foundations to elevate and sponsor your instructors of the
young. Complicate and complicate the rules so that a law suit is something
only the corporation and the very rich can afford. Do everything to make
the next generation more dumbed down and more cynical about just law
than the previous. And by every means place just law that much further
from the people's grasp. So that finally, to the man untrained in the
deceptions of legal word art, the very statutes and court decisions are
disinformation. Eventually, even the lawyers don't know just law from
legality and you can tell the young the Constitution has passed away. A
Columbia University law professor is doing this in print even now.
Dishonest money drives honest money and honest men out of the
marketplace and out of the professions.

Dishonest paper money is everywhere; fraud is everywhere; and justice is

The only effective check on the issuance of paper money by government or
by private banks is that gold and silver coin be in circulation. Only their
presence prevents devaluation of paper money by excessive issues of it.
Only the rigor of the marketplace can hold dishonesty in check. The
offspring of politics, legality, certainly cannot do it.

If the federal can confiscate gold by law from the people as was the case
in 1933, then the States together can confiscate the gold back from the
federal by constitutional law, and apportion it among themselves according
to population, and take greenbacks out of circulation by selling the gold as
coin back to the people at a fixed rate in greenbacks.

And stable money can forever be guaranteed to posterity by then insuring
by constitutional law that the power to charter a bank never again be
allowed to the federal government.

Exercise of the lawful constitutional power of the States is the only way to
restore our Constitution and save our nation from ruin.

And, when the unlimited credit of the greenback is gone, the means that
nations now have to finance sales of weapons to themselves and to other
nations will be gone, and the world will be a safer place. And until it is
gone, the threat of our freedoms and sovereignty being barter on the
international treaty table will never disappear.

But, the paper palace keeps us double minded. Will it survive its crisis and
devour us entirely ?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:24 - ID#335184)
Ziva, just for the hellof it I got to ask. Why didn't TR make your pantheon of presidential monks ?
As for placing JC & Woddy Wilson in that lexicon of chastity way up yonder,
if you consider the wanton & collective misery reaked upon the public by these pompous pseudointellectuals ( FED RESERVE, Income tax & malaise & misery index of 26 ) , it only proves the general adage that pride & hubris
are just one of the 7 equally deadly sins !



Tar Baby

(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:29 - ID#302251)
Date: Fri Jan 23 1998 21:02
6pak ( Legal Drug Sales World Wide per Year $330 Billion US @
WHAT are the yearly sales of other DRUGS EH! ) ID#335190:
January 23, 1998
Reno buries report on CIA links to dope- dealers

WASHINGTON ( AP )  U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno ordered a
on how the Justice Department dealt with people and allegations described
in a newspaper series on CIA links to drug- trafficking kept secret
indefinitely Friday.

It is the first time an attorney general has ever invoked provisions of the
inspector- general act that allow a report to be withheld from the public if
its release would reveal sensitive information. The 400- page report, A
Contra Crack Cocaine Controversy: A Review of the Justice Department's
Investigations and Prosecutions, is the product of a 15- month investigation
triggered by August 1996 articles in the San Jose, Calif., Mercury News,
Inspector General Michael Bromwich said in a statement.

In a letter to Bromwich, Reno said her decision was prompted by "law-
enforcement concerns unrelated to the ultimate conclusions reached in your
report." She did not elaborate on the reasons but it was learned department
officials feared release might compromise an undercover operation that is
expected to last an extended period.

"I disagree with her decision," Bromwich said in a statement. But he
added: "It is her decision to make under the law. I...must abide by it."

The law allows Reno to restrict any inspector- general activity involving
sensitive information about civil or criminal investigations, undercover
operations, the identity of confidential sources or protected witnesses,
intelligence matters or data damaging to national security.

Reno said the report will remain secret "until I determine that the law-
enforcement longer warrant deferral of its public release."


Date: Sat Jan 24 1998 00:20
PH in LA ( Archive access ) ID#225408:
Are the Kitco archives unavailable to all? Every time I try to go there my
system crashes. Am I doing something wrong? This situation has persisted
for a number of days now. I am unaware of having made any changes to
my system. Can anyone help?


John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:34 - ID#24135)
Her name is Sheherizade TWO
For Oris
Im a little worried about glare from snow effect which may
trouble her - so Im sending special sunglasses. She is well
behaved but has been trained as ATTACK camel. Just say word
DWARFDWARF and she goes into furious ATTACK mode. You will
be well protected with her and she likes music of Shostakovitch
( 7th Symph, 1st movement ) and of course Rimsky-Korsakov.
I forgot to warn you that see prefers beer to Vodka -

(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:36 - ID#302251)
Date: Sat Jan 24 1998 02:30
JTF ( One last post for the night ) ID#57232:
SDRer: When you get a chance, can you tell us about any new
developments that make you think a world- wide financial crisis is just
around the corner? Do we have an imminent collapse of a world- class
bank - - repeating the failure of the Rothschilds Austrian Kreditenstat bank
in 1932 ( approx date ) ?

We have to be on our toes these days, with the crosscurrents of inflation
and deflation, and the imminent entry of the Independence into the
Persian Gulf. Now Y Arafat wants 60% of the disputed property in the
occupied territories.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:37 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Dr.Disney, before I go to bed,
I want to share some thoughts
with you on the subject that
worries all civilized world...

How are we gonna solve this "Bio-in-V" problem?

Today, for nearly 16 hours, I was
building a sample of the unique device,
I call it "Givatron"...It is projected
to check out at least 45 "V" per hour...
I feel I can sell it to the U.S. government
for a big buck, but I need Ziva's help
to deliver this message and to get them
concerned...At this time they are not...

If you have any ideas on how to achive
commercial success of my future enterprise,
please share your thoughts. I think timing
to introduce this gizmo to the American
market is just about perfect.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:40 - ID#24135)
A state of very limited agreement
for Ziva
We agree that Mozel is first class and that you dont want
to get too close to Janet Reno.
But I think that's all we agree on
Al'lah O akbar

(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:42 - ID#302251)

Date: Sat Jan 24 1998 11:43
Steve - Perth ( The things you read on the Net! ) ID#284177:
How Reflation Will Blow Out the Financial System -

EIR: Lyn, Jeffrey Sachs, the Harvard economist, is calling on
Japan to do even more to print money and flood Asia with cheap
loans and yen liquidity.

LYNDON LAROUCHE: If you look at a recent issue of the
Neue Zuericher Zeitung, the NZZ, which is the leading
Zurich- based financial paper in Switzerland, daily, you see the
same thing was reported there. What has happened is a great
number, or an overwhelming majority of the European and the
U.S. financier circles are committed to what in fact is a
hyperinflation, a global hyperinflation, which, in a matter of some
weeks, if continued, will do to the world, including the United
States, what the Weimar hyperinflation did to Germany over the
period 1921- 23. Only this time, it won't take a couple of years to
do it. This will happen within weeks, or, at most, months.

They call it reflation. They say - - NZZ, for example, and other
voices, which NZZ accurately reflects - - they say there's a
danger that if we don't do this, the Asian economies will go to
exchange controls. So, what's wrong with exchange controls?
We did that before. That's how we got out of the World War II
effects. During the 1950s, there were exchange controls, limited
convertibility, capital controls. These were the methods; and
pegged currencies. Anybody who tried to do what George
Soros, we'd bankrupt him then. You want to go out and gamble,
and say a currency's got the wrong price? We say, "Buddy, we
determine the price of the currencies, not you and your crazy
casino- type financial speculators' markets." We'd bankrupt these
guys. We did it many times, and they learned to behave

Now, they're turned loose. These rats, like Soros, are turned
loose, destroying entire economies. You mean to say that Korea
can't produce the same value in industrial product for a unit of
won today, that it produced at the beginning of the year? Of
course it can. Did the won collapse in value? No: it was artificially
collapsed in value, by perception of a bunch of gangsters holding
the gun of the International Monetary Fund, and so forth, to the
heads of the Korean economy.

So, Sachs now, true to colors, comes out and joins the pack, in
demanding what's called reflation, to avoid the possibility that
nations will go back to the old Bretton Woods type of

[commercial break]

EIR: Lyn, you were discussing the call by Harvard economist
Jeffrey Sachs and European financiers for faster reflation, printing
of money.

LYNDON LAROUCHE: In this condition, the President does
not support, or has given no indication that he supports inflation,
or hyperinflation. And everything I see, indicates that he's
opposed to it. But the President has to think of himself as like the
policeman on a street where a burglary's in progress. The burglar,
in this case, is the policies of the IMF, the policies of, in this case,
Jeffrey Sachs, for example. The President as the policeman is
standing there, watching people launch a global hyperinflation.
And, he's doing nothing to interfere with that. Instead, he's
spending three days at Camp David, according to the
announcement, with his deadliest enemy, the British monarchy, as
represented by their current chief thug, Tony Blair. And this is
what the danger is.

At present, you would say the policeman is supporting by
condoning a burglary in process. In the same sense, the President
of the United States is currently supporting global hyperinflation
of the type that, in short order, will blow up the planet. And, in
the coming weeks, we're going to see the White House and
everybody else shaking, because the effects of what they're
doing, is going to cause a disaster beyond anything that they've
experienced, or even imagined so far.

- France: Bankrupt Credit Lyonnais, Not the French
People -

EIR: Lyn, amidst spreading demonstrations of unemployed in
France, France's prime minister is going to address the nation
tonight on the problem. What's behind this?

LYNDON LAROUCHE: The problem in France is signalled by
the fact that in France, the unemployed are demanding a
continuation of unemployment benefits. You had the young
unemployed, who have been rioting or otherwise demonstrating
in France, with great sympathy from leading trade unions, outside
the Socialist Party leadership itself, which of course is the
continuation of the Francois Mitterrand gangster apparatus,
which is running the government of France today, behind Jospin.

The interesting thing is this: The French government, at the same
time it says it has no money for unemployment benefits, is doing a
monstrous bailout, once more, of Credit Lyonnais. Now, Credit
Lyonnais, truth be known, was bankrupted because of things that
were done by and under the administration of President, former
President Francois Mitterrand, the head of the gangster
organization which runs the Socialist Party government of France

So once again, again and again, the French government goes
back to bail out Francois Mitterrand's creation, the bottomless pit
called Credit Lyonnais. They should bankrupt the thing: it's
bankrupt, let it go. But, of course, that would cause a lot of
embarrassment, because somebody might look at the paper
which hasn't been burned up yet, to see who was exactly
responsible for looting Credit Lyonnais, to cause this perpetual

In the meantime, others in Europe are saying, "This is not
allowable," because this itself will break the so- called Maastricht
agreements. In any case, what you see, is that Jospin is going to
go public tonight, and he's going to try to cover his butt, including,
the question will be asked: "What role possibly did Jospin, and
possibly his minister, Chevenement, have, in connection with
Mitterrand, the Mitterrand administration's relationship to Credit
Lyonnais? And what might lie behind the so- called suicides of
Beregovoy and other officials of the Mitterrand government or
the Mitterrand state, shortly before Mitterrand left the
government? What was covered up by those things?" Those
questions are going to be asked.

But, in the meantime, you find a situation in which human folly,
and conniving, comes to a reckoning. It's a time in which the
Nemesis, the Greek Erinyes are swarming down on the French
government, and saying, "wait a minute, buddy, we've come to
collect you." We'll see what happens after the speech tonight.

- Why Tony Blair Is a Fascist -

EIR: Lyn, earlier, you mentioned Clinton's forthcoming meeting
with British Prime Minister Blair. Tony Wedgwood Benn, a leftist
politician in Britain, just compared Prime Minister Blair to the
prewar British Prime Minister Ramsay Macdonald. You had
made the same comparison earlier.

LYNDON LAROUCHE: Tony Wedgwood Benn is one of the
interesting figures in an otherwise dull- as- dishwater British
personality landscape these days. And, of course, he's made the
correct observation. Everybody knows it; that Tony Blair is a
fascist, pure and simple. I don't know why anybody around
Washington likes him, unless they do have some fascist
tendencies, or proclivities. But, what he's doing, is exactly that.
He is doing what his predecessor, Ramsay Macdonald, did in
1931, what was done at the same time in Germany, under
Chancellor Bruning, the terrible austerity measures, which paved
the way for Hitler's coming to power in Germany.

And we're having the same thing now: If these policies continue,
you're going to have social explosion, you're going to have chaos
in Britain, in Europe, in the United States. It's coming fast.
Anyone who supports this kind of thing, is lunatic, at best. And
Wedgwood Benn, one of the interesting figures still on the British
landscape, has spoken the truth, a rare thing for British politicians
these days.

- Iran: Fight Over Policy Between Mullahs and Khatami -

EIR: Lyn, we've discussed previously on this show that Iranian
President Khatami went on American television with an offer for
dialogue with the American people. Now, the daily press is
creating the impression that this offer has been withdrawn.
They're quoting apparently anti- American statements of Khatami.
Is that true?

LYNDON LAROUCHE: No, that's not true. What's happened
is, it's in trouble. The mullahs, a very political group in the mullahs
- - it's a complication, a long story involving the nature of the
ayatollah system within the Iranian version of Islam. But a political
group, headed by Khamenei, has launched an anti- American
explosion, in response to President Khatami's address on the
U.S. media. This has put the discussion into jeopardy. Now, the
anti- American posturing in the Islamic world - - and I know it
very well - - the virulently anti- American, as, you know, the
United States is the number one evil in the world; if they want to
say George Bush is one of the number one evils in the world, they
can go ahead and say that. I'll support them on that. But the
United States is not the number one evil in the world: it's the

Look at the other side of this: look at international terrorism.
Who runs international terrorism? Well, the majority of the
harboring and direction of international terrorism is run from
London. This is not an allegation made simply by me or by
President Mubarak of Egypt, or so forth, this is a fact. This is
something admitted, in open proceedings in parliament and
elsewhere, by the British Crown. They went to parliament to
defend their policy, not only acknowledging the fact that they
have been, with MI6 and MI5 and the British Foreign Office,
have been harboring and actually deploying international
terrorism, but they defended the practice, and said they intended
to continue it.

On the other side, one of the things that was said by the British
Crown in this connection, was that this is the way we deal with
the angry Islamic groups, for example. And thus, we harbor their
political activists, and allow them to commit acts of terror, as long
as their terrorist acts don't attack anything which we consider to
be a target of British interests.

So, what happens, is you get some dumb Arabs, some dumb
Islamic people, who believe that the British are the lesser evil,
that the British are the friend of the Arabs, or the Islamic
population against the United States. There are a lot of idiots,
wishful idiots in the Third World, among the Islamic and other
populations, who believe that nonsense, who are totally
brainwashed and manipulated by British Intelligence. As a matter
of fact, go back and read a book. Read Burton's unexpurgated
version of the Arabian Nights. Don't read the book so much - -
read the footnotes. And Burton tells you that this book is a
manual on how to manipulate the Arab mind. And that's what the
British do. And the same thing applies to the Iranians.

So you have a faction in Iran, which, from the earlier period, the
period of the crisis with Carter, that in that period, the British
were manipulating the whole thing. And some of the mullahs were
also targets and subjects of that manipulation. And that lingers to
this day. Because of the conflict which developed between Iran
and the United States, you have an embittered mass base of
support for what began simply as the British- inspired targetting of
the United States within Iran.

- Danger of a New Middle East War Is Growing -

EIR: Lyn, we have about a minute remaining. Could you address
the Middle East peace talks going on in Washington? You know
that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met twice with Clinton
yesterday, and Yasser Arafat of the PLO will meet with the
President tomorrow.

LYNDON LAROUCHE: Well, I would say, first of all, that the
President is very well- meaning in this thing. But the President is
very much afraid of the so- called Zionist Lobby in the United
States. The Zionist Lobby in the United States is not primarily of
Jewish extraction. It is primarily of evangelicals, who belong to
the so- called British Israelite persuasion. The evangelicals were
totally controlled by the British Privy Council, which is a good
name for it.

Therefore, the President is politically afraid of taking on
Netanyahu. Netanyahu, or the Israeli crazies, who are run from
London, although many of the lunatics are based in Brooklyn; but
these lunatics, who are part of the so- called Temple Mount
operation, they plan to blow up the Temple Mount, to bring the
New Temple of Solomon, to cause the Battle of Armageddon.
And all these evangelicals, U.S. evangelicals believed they
wouldn't have to pay the rent any more, because they would get
raptured, or wouldn't have to pay their bills. So, that was the
basis for it.

So the President is unwilling to take on Netanyahu, and that
Israeli crowd the way he should. He probably is very angry at
Netanyahu, he's probably very angry at these people. He
probably wants to do the right thing. I mean, our President,
Clinton, is essentially a good guy, I mean, a nice neighbor to
have. But, when it comes to command in warfare against
enemies, he always tends to compromise and equivocate, and
that's what he's doing in this case. Even though he's trying to do
the right thing, the element of equivocation in his attitude, his
cultural tendency toward equivocation, is deadly. And they'll
probably get by with it; we probably will have a Middle East
war, as a result of the President's equivocation.


John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:45 - ID#24135)
The Givatron is a breakthough
for oris
Russian technology strikes again. Lemmethinkaboutit.
But for starters Ill pass on Janet Reno.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:47 - ID#302251)
Date: Sat Jan 24 1998 10:44
Mike Sheller ( I'm AFreud to say, but... ) ID#347447:
Permit me a little further investigation of Chad Meek's call that the
President would encounter some sort of debilitation bordering on "mental
illness." Now thru May, transiting Uranus ( no jokes, gang ) opposes
Clinton's natal Marcury/Pluto conjunction. This touches upon the more
esoteric PSYCHOLOGICAL ramifications of astrology. Think of it this
in astrological symbolic shorthand for civilians - Mercury is the intellect,
or "mind" as we generally think we know it ( the chatter in our heads, etc
) and Pluto, among other things, being ruler of Scorpio, symbolizes Sex,
and the regenerative, creative power behind that mysterious function. We
are either REgenerating, or DEgenerating ( Sort of like we are either
INflating, or DEflating ) . Perhaps, with this "afflicted" Mercury, so close
to Pluto it cannot escape constant thoughts and urges concerning sex, the
President does indeed have a deep- rooted psychological "condition." As
for seperating his public life ( as President of all the people ) from his
private ( s ) , if a man cannot keep his vows of fidelity to his wife, how
can he be expected to keep them to his country? I think we may have a
deeper problem here than appears at first glance. My current feature at
golden eagle notes unusual activity April/May. Could this be the crescendo
of the scandal?

JTF: I'm not too good with eclipses - they are like black holes to me, but I
will look into it ( the eclipse, not the black hole ) .

The bottom is IN!

Re: Fidelity to his wife
Mike, it is irelevant in this case.
The Internet if full of DETAILED stories,
how both of them were involved in group sex.
I am extrealy careful in checking my sources
and I was very sceptical at the bigining
but now I beleive it is true.

I do not critisize them for participating in group sex
my only comment is that fidelity is irelevant in this case.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:49 - ID#302251)
Date: Sat Jan 24 1998 05:04
JIN ( ZIVA........ ) ID#206358:
Another piece of bad news from INDONESIA:
Foreign banks pull plug on
US$ funds to Indon

Banker says there is real danger of systemic collapse of
banking system

(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:51 - ID#302251)

Date: Sat Jan 24 1998 18:37
James ( Monica@Mitigates@Clinton@Miasma ) ID#252150:
Reuters..16:22EST... Monica Lewinsky has just stated through her

Lawyer- - that while she admits to performing oral sex on President

(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:52 - ID#257148)
not too loud. I might wake up Ted, Norbert the Nark, then I'll be in trouble

There is no "us"
there is only one monumental ego. Yours.
Go away.Leave us alone. this is a gold chat. Take your apocalyptic clap trap and waste bandwidth somewhere else. One last thing.

Fck off.

Dave in CO
(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:52 - ID#215211)
@John Disney, oris
You can exclude JanetR from your testing. ( S ) he obviously doesn't have one of them V thangs.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:52 - ID#347457)
Ziva, you sure have it all wrong! England? Since when did it belong to England?!?! If you want to return 60% of the US to a proper land keeper it would have to be navive Indians!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 02:56 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Good night ( morning ) , John.

Will talk to you tomorrow.

By the way, I like Imre Kalman's operettas
very much, very much indeed. I also like
rock-n-roll of the late 50's.

Come on, let's twist again...

Oris, the Project Manager.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 03:01 - ID#187218)
eeeeeenuff' already ...................................
I had a nightmare while sleeping all day today ( long story )

BUT-- if we bundle up the information here on Kitco and know it to be true --THEN-- why do we care of Hillary-the Hun, Bill's bitches, Rockefeller, CFR, Bilderbergs, "So-Damn-Insane", AG, Camdemus, Suharto, POG, Oil/Gold connections, Governments snowing us, Treasury seizing assets, etc etc etc ....., etc...etc...etc .....

We Know the following:
1. PM are the way to go
2. We need more of it to PERSONALLY survive and maintain sanity.
3. Need to secure PMs from local/government/family theft.
4. Paper is ONE vehicle to go while PMs are the trap door to safety.
5. Your family won't listen to your sh_t - so - F_ck em'.

So do the following:
A. Buy PMs each day/week/month.
B. Accumulate and hide it away.
C. Stop preaching to the choir.
D. Have fun with other people "in-the-know", a.k.a. Kitcoites.


(Sat Jan 31 1998 03:04 - ID#238422)
You are good and sincere man.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 03:08 - ID#24135)
The zee people are revolting er .. are in revolt
Really - you take up more space than I do. Gonna go to the
the gee gees - see ya.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 03:10 - ID#273227)
warren buffet - Solomon Smith Barney

Does anyone know if Warren Buffett still is a big shareholder in Solomon Smith Barney?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 03:13 - ID#302251)
RED ALERT......Middle East about to explode

STRATFOR's Annual Forecast: 1998-- The Year of Logical Consequences.

January 30, 1998

British Forces on Alert on Cyprus

The Cyprus News Agency ( CNA ) reported on Thursday that British troops at bases
on Cyprus were
on a alert, due to the potentially imminent U.S. attack on Iraq. CNA quoted a
British Defense
Ministry spokesman as saying the Cyprus garrison, as well as troops at British bases
throughout the
world, were at a "certain degree" of alert. There may, however, be more to the
Cyprus alert than
events in the Persian Gulf. Bomb disposal experts on Thursday defused a
"primitive" home-made
bomb on the British Army's Akrotiri-Episkopi Sovereign Base Area ( SBA ) on
Cyprus. The device's
fuse had been lit, but had failed to detonate the bomb. Another bomb exploded
outside a British
Bases Police station in the SBA on January 22. Base spokesman Mervyn Wynne
Jones discounted
the two incidents, calling them "nothing sinister" and stating that there were no
plans for
additional patrols.

On January 27, the Global Intelligence Update reported on the increasingly tense
situation on
Cyprus, following the development of a new airbase.
( ) At the time we
noted the threat by
Turkish Cypriots to take "all the measures necessary" to defend their security
against what they
perceive to be a growing Greek Cypriot threat. The Turkish Cypriot Foreign Affairs
and Defense
Minister warned that measures would be taken "in light of the assurances given by
Turkey and without provocation. In the past weeks, Turkey has reaffirmed its
commitment to
defend and to extend its support for Turkish Cypriots. There have been rumors as
well, denied by
UN peacekeepers on the island, that a Turkish military buildup is underway on the
Turkish-controlled side of Cyprus.

The situation on Cyprus is extremely volatile, and action by either side could
foment a crisis to
draw their sponsors into active participation in events. Targeting the British,
however, is more
likely to increase the presence of British and UN peacekeeping forces on Cyprus,
than to draw in
the Turks or Greeks. Whoever is responsible for the SBA bombs may, intentionally
or otherwise, in
fact decrease the likelihood of open conflict on Cyprus.

STRATFOR Systems' Red Alerts, archived by region
STRATFOR Systems Intelligence Forecasts

(Sat Jan 31 1998 03:13 - ID#255151)

Your point, that too much band width is being monopolized, is well taken and colourfully put! Good on ya!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 03:13 - ID#198170)
Biological Warfare
For those that may be interested - the Aug. 6, 1997 issue of JAMA is almost fully devoted to biological warfare issues. Much of it is in full articles.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 03:15 - ID#257148)


That is because truth is the easiest lie to maintain.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 03:17 - ID#266105)

Ziva: in a word, Dylan.

Not the Thomas who bought it after eighteen shots
of whiskey from a barrel.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 03:18 - ID#302251)

Biological Terrorism

Preparing to Meet the Threat

Jeffrey D. Simon, PhD

The threat of terrorists using biological warfare agents has
received increased attention in recent years. Despite the hope
with the right mix of policies, security measures, and intelligence
gathering, a major biological warfare terrorist attack can be
prevented, the history of conventional terrorism indicates
otherwise. The greatest payoff in combating biological terrorism
lies in focusing on how best to respond to a terrorist attack. The
medical and emergency service communities will play the most
important role in that process. Ensuring that they are trained to
recognize the symptoms of diseases caused by biological warfare
agents and have Critical Incident Stress Debriefing teams
to help them cope with the emotional aspects of treating exposed
survivors should be part of contingency planning. By improving
our readiness to respond to biological terrorism, many lives can
saved and terrorists denied their goal of creating panic and crisis
throughout the country.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 03:39 - ID#302251)

The Bilderberg Group
- The Invisible Power House -

With its membership selected from the power lite of Europe and
North America, many wonder if the Bilderbergers are conspiring
to establish a 'new world order'.

Extracted from Nexus Magazine, Volume 3, #1 ( Dec '95-Jan '96 ) .
PO Box 30, Mapleton Qld 4560 Australia.
Telephone: +61 ( 0 ) 7 5442 9280; Fax: +61 ( 0 ) 7 5442 9381
From our web page at:

 1994 by Armen Victorian,
PO Box 99, West PDO,
Nottingham, NG8 3NT UK

The conspiracy theory writers have repeatedly linked one powerful global elite, the
Bilderberg Group, with the ultimate take-over of the world. Members of the Bilderberg
together with their 'sister' organisations-the Trilateral Commission ( known also as the
"Child of Bilderberg" ) ( 1 ) and the Council on Foreign Relations ( 2 ) -are charged with the
post-war take-over of the democratic process. The measures implemented by this group
so far prove the control of the world economy through indirect political means.

The constitution of several democratic monarchies of the Western Europe bans
members of their royal families from playing an active role in the political process.
However, the Bilderberg meetings provide this exact forum and platform for them.
"This unprecedented period of European cooperation is more than a product of simple
nation-state diplomacy. One of the key institutions that has fostered unity and cooperation
with the Atlantic Community beyond the old concepts has been the Bilderberg Group." ( 3 )
"I tell you frankly that I am deeply alarmed today over the possibility that a right-wing
reaction may draw some sections of capital so far away from our traditions as to imperil the
entire structure of American life as we know it." ( 4 )

These comments by Pasymowski and Gilbert ( 3 ) two decades ago may seem out of phase
with the current events in former Yugoslavia, but, in terms of the continued stability
of the "European State", they have proven to be largely accurate. Warfare has been
removed from the intra-European systems as a means of controlling and directing
nationalistic goals and ideas. Even in the case of former Yugoslavia, one observes that
the current state of war has resulted from Tito's and the Soviet Union's demise.
Consequently, the lid has been lifted on rivals and racial memories which had been
artificially kept in place for previous decades. The several proto-states which make up
the former Yugoslavia were not part of the economic and social development programs
which evolved in Western Europe. As we would see, the way in which the rest of
Europe evolved and developed was very different, and for very particular reasons.

Whether co-incidence or not, it is equally ironic that the current Chairman of the
Bilderberg, Lord Carrington, was the first UN-appointed representative to bring peace
to the war-torn Yugoslavia.

The single most important personality connected with the birth and creation of the
Bilderberg Group is Joseph H. Retinger ( also known as L'Eminence-His Grey
Eminence ) . Retinger had a colourful, lifelong career that raised him to the top of the
world power lites. At his funeral in 1960, Sir Edward Bedington-Behrens said:
"I remember Retinger in the United States picking up the telephone and immediately making
an appointment with the President, and in Europe he had complete entre in every political
circle as a kind of right acquired through trust, devotion and loyalty he inspired."

Retinger, as a Catholic, was viewed by many as an agent of the Vatican, acting in
liaison between the Pope and the Father-General of the Jesuit order.

One of Retinger's renowned achievements in European politics was the founding of the
European Movement, leading to the establishment of the Council of Europe on 5th May
1949. With its headquarters in Strasbourg, the Council Executive Committee provided
Retinger his first major platform for his expansive ideology. From his earlier days at
the Sorbonne, Retinger believed in greater European unity, both in military and
economic terms. It was also at the same time when his interest in the guidance of the
Jesuit order manifested itself. He spent a great deal of his time fulfilling these
ambitions. He suggested to Premier Georges Clemenceau a plan to unite Eastern
Europe-involving the merging of Austria, Hungary and Poland as a tripartite monarchy
under the guidance of the Jesuit order. Clemenceau, doubtful of the Vatican-inspired
plan, rejected Retinger's proposal outright. This plan labelled Retinger, thereafter, as a
Vatican agent.

Retinger's activities were not limited to uniting Europe. Through his several trips to
Mexico he played a key role in the creation of a trade union movement in the 1920s.
Due to his unprecedented success, and by gaining the Mexican Government's trust,
Retinger convinced them to nationalise the US oil interest in Mexico. In the process,
Retinger conducted the secret negotiations with Washington for the Mexican

Retinger also had an active war career. He was the political aide to General Sikorski,
and served for the London-based Polish Government-in-exile. In addition, at the age of
58, he parachuted into German-occupied territory outside Warsaw for some sabotage

Due to his high-profile career, in the 1950s he was able to create contacts with
numerous high-ranking military officials and political leaders. His main aim was to
unite the world in peace. His peace dividend was to be under the control of
supernational, powerful organisations. He believed that such organisations would be
immune from short-term ideological conflicts erupting between governments. To
Retinger, it was insignificant what dominated the economic ideology of a country. He
believed these differences could be brought into line by powerful multinational
organisations dictating and applying powerful economic and military policies, thereby
creating a union and a bond between the nations.

Retinger's personal 'left-wing' views from his heady days convinced him that many
leaders of newly born socialist and communist nations would be prepared to talk to
him. Additionally, his Church background gave him an arena for dialogue with people
from the middle-ground connections in international relations.

Nevertheless, Retinger knew that control of the world affairs cannot be achieved
without US participation. In pursuit of this ideology, he began a campaign for the
creation of an Atlantic Community. This would make the development of Europe an
important political aim for the American politicians, thereby preventing their retreat
into political isolation.

Retinger, with this in mind, set out his carefully calculated move by involving one of
his close and powerful friends, Prince Bernhard of the Netherlands. Prince Bernhard,
at the time, was an important figure in the oil industry and held a major position in
Royal Dutch Petroleum ( Shell Oil ) , as well as Socit Gnrale de Belgique-a powerful
global corporation.

In 1952 Retinger approached Bernhard with a proposal for a secret conference to
involve the NATO leaders in an open and frank discussion on international affairs
behind closed doors. The meeting would allow each participant to speak his mind
freely because no media representative would be permitted inside; nor would there be
any news bulletin about the meeting or the topics discussed. Furthermore, if any leaks
occurred, the journalists would be discouraged from writing about it.

Prince Bernhard fully supported Retinger's proposal for an international meeting.
Consequently, they formed a committee to organise a plan. In 1952, Bernhard
approached the Truman administration and briefed them about the meeting. Despite a
positive reception, it was not until the Eisenhower administration when the first
American counterpart group was formed. The two key role-players in the US group
were General Walter Bedell Smith ( Director of the CIA ) and C. D. Jackson. Both
( European-American ) groups working interactively set out to fulfil Retinger's initial
plan. From the outset, the American group was heavily influenced by the Rockefeller
family, the owners of Standard Oil-competitors of Bernhard's Royal Dutch Petroleum.
From then on, the Bilderberg business reflected the concerns of the oil industry in its

According to Bilderberg's draft document of 1989:
"Bilderberg takes its name from the Bilderberg Hotel in Oosterbeek, Holland, where the first
meeting took place in May 1954. That pioneering meeting grew out of the concern expressed
by many leading citizens on both sides of the Atlantic that Western Europe and North
America were not working together as closely as they should on matters of critical
importance. It was felt that regular, off-the-record discussions would help create a better
understanding of the complex forces and major trends affecting Western nations in the
difficult post-war period." ( 5 )

Retinger's main aim in creating Bilderberg had other more important, inherent aspects
than an informal gathering of a group of the world's lite. It has been suggested that
Bilderberg meetings ultimately would have implemented group dynamics techniques in
the shape of a low- key international thinking group with the purpose of sensitising
the less enlightened of its membership towards the new transitional diplomacy of the
Cold War.

The first meeting witnessed the gathering of ideologies, poles apart. The issue of
McCarthyism was reaching its peak in the United States. European participants,
exasperated with the McCarthy propaganda, saw in their American counterparts a clear
political shift towards an ultra-right-wing fascist state. Memories of World War II still
fresh in their minds, the Europeans found the concept rather repulsive.

C. D. Jackson ( a member of the CFR ) , in an attempt to regain the international
delegates' confidence, stated:
"Whether McCarthy dies by an assassin's bullet or is eliminated in the normal American way
of getting rid of boils on body politics, I prophesy that by the time we hold our next meeting
he will be gone from the American scene." ( 6 )

Nevertheless, McCarthyism proved to be a source of embarrassment for the US

The concept of Bilderberg was not new. Although similar groups were already in
existence at the time, none attracted and provoked global myths the way Bilderberg

Groups such as Bohemian Grove, established in 1872 by San Franciscans, played an
equally significant role in shaping post-war politics in the US.
"It was at the Grove, it is said, that the Manhattan Project was set up and that Eisenhower
was selected as the Republicans' candidate for 1952." ( 7 )

The Ditchley Park Foundation was established in 1953 in Britain with the same aim. ( 8 )

Two years earlier, in 1952, Britain's Field Marshal Bernard Montgomery had suggested
the idea of a NATO command-post exercise ( a paper drill; no movement of forces ) to
train army divisional commanders. General Eisenhower, who was then NATO's
European Commander, accepted it. As a result, the Supreme Headquarters Allied
Powers in Europe Exercise-SHAPEX-was created. Ever since, an annual meeting has
been held in SHAPE headquarters near Mons, Belgium, and the subject has been
broadened to incorporate a wide array of topics.

The historical review of these groups reflects a sudden flourishing trend, and the
realisation by the world's leaders of the need for creation of, at times, such overt
concepts. The idea of establishing such lite groups did not die with the birth of

In 1957, the first of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs took
place.9 Pandit Nehru offered to host the first meeting. The founder members were
personalities such as Bertrand Russell and Albert Einstein. Scientists from the United
States and Soviet Union were regular participants in this East-West gathering of lites.
Britain is known for its active participation and role in this group.
"The best feature of Pugwash is that it brings together people from East, West and
non-aligned countries." ( 9 )

Pugwash proved particularly valuable at the time when the relation between East and
West was at a stalemate. Many significant topics were discussed in this forum. Ways
of monitoring arms control agreements, nuclear disarmament, and reduction of
East-West tensions were always on the top of the agenda. In the 1970s Pugwash
embraced a range of issues including biological, chemical and conventional arms
control, environment and development problems as well as conflicts around the world.

One of the latest groups is the Williamsburg, better known as the Asian Window. Its
first meeting was financed by the late John D. Rockefeller in 1971, and continues to
date. It brings together the Asian leaders and the Americans. Williamsburg has been
particularly effective for discussing Vietnam, or the Indonesian corruption, or
supposedly non-existent Japanese exchange controls. Different experiences of trade
with China and Russia, or how Singapore has a lower infant mortality than America,
have been some of the topics in the Williamsburg forum.

Nonetheless, none of these groups-including the Council on Foreign Relations and the
Trilaterals-commands the influence the Bilderberg has obtained in shaping and
dictating global policies.

"The first [Bilderberg] meeting was convened under the chairmanship of H. R. H. Prince
Bernhard of the Netherlands, who served as chairman for twenty-two years. He was
succeeded by Lord Home of the Hirsel, former Prime Minister for the United Kingdom, who
chaired the meetings for four years. At the 1980 meeting, Lord Home turned over the
chairmanship to Walter Scheel, former President of the Federal Republic of Germany. In
1985, Mr Scheel resigned, and was succeeded by Lord Roll of Ipsden, President of S. G.
Warburg Group plc. At 1989 meeting, Lord Roll turned over the chairmanship to Lord
Carrington," ( 10 ) who still chairs the meetings.

"What is unique about Bilderberg as a forum is ( 1 ) the broad cross-section of leading
citizens, in and out of government, that are assembled for nearly three days of informal
discussion about topics of current concern especially in the fields of foreign affairs and the
international economy; ( 2 ) the strong feeling among participants that, in view of the differing
attitudes and experiences of the Western nations, there is a clear need to develop an
understanding in which these concerns can be accommodated; and ( 3 ) the privacy of these
meetings, which has no purpose other than to allow leading citizens to speak their minds
openly and freely.

"In short, Bilderberg is a recognised, flexible and informal international leadership forum in
which different viewpoints can be expressed and mutual understanding enhanced." ( 11 )

In further recognition of this aspect, Paddy Ashdown, the Leader of the Liberal Party
and a participant in the 1989 Bilderberg meeting, wrote to me:

"In view of the recent events right across Europe, this has turned out to have been an
exceptionally useful opportunity to meet and discuss with many of the most expert people in
the world on international relations. I found it a very stimulating and informative
gathering." ( 12 )

But others, such as Prince Charles, Lord Callaghan and Sir Edward Heath, were rather
shy in their responses. ( 13 )

There are usually 115 participants in each annual meeting. Eighty are from Western
Europe and the remainder from North America. From this mixture, one-third are from
government and politics, and the remaining two-thirds from industry, finance,
education and communications. All the participants claim to attend the meeting in
their private capacity and not as officials-though this claim, in the wake of the
outcome of subsequent meetings, has proven to be highly questionable.

Participants are invited to the Bilderberg meeting by the Chairman, following his
consultations and recommendations by the Steering Committee membership, the
Advisory Group and the Honorary Secretaries-General. This approach ensures a full,
informed and balanced discussion of the agenda items. The individuals are chosen
based on their knowledge, standing and experience. The previous participants maintain
that, at the meetings, no resolutions are proposed, no votes are taken and no policy
statements are made.

The costs of the annual meetings are usually the responsibility of the Steering
Committee members of the host country. But, the expenses of maintaining the
Bilderberg meetings are covered entirely by private subscriptions. Although the
meeting reports are published, nevertheless they are strictly for the participating
members only. No reports are made available to the media.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 03:40 - ID#393224)
Well said, mate.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 03:43 - ID#266105)

You're worst than the wurst clown. Like they say,
cannibals don't eat'm, they taste funny.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 03:46 - ID#257148)
Nite all.....


Quod Erat Demonstrandum

which was to be proved.

Ziva = Fruitcake....

(Sat Jan 31 1998 03:46 - ID#345425)
all we need to know...
Wetgold: But what if someone finds out where you are hiding it?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 03:51 - ID#255151)
Respectfully would like to request help. Ziva is hoggin' the mike! Thank you.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 03:57 - ID#28585)
Appparently, the American people actually raised their collective opinion of BC as a result of the Lewinsky scandal...according to major network polls, approx. 80% ( up from 70% last week ) approve of BC, despite his "alleged" adulterous activities.

Not satisfied with a mere 80% approval rating, sources claim BC is exploring the possibility of molesting young boys as a means of obtaining unanimous approval from the American public.

Sources say that BC declared, "If it was good enough for Socrates and Plato, then it's good enough for me! I owe the American people several more weeks of discussion regarding my penis and my sexual depravity! Above and beyond everything else, cornholing young boys should raise my popularity with the homosexual vote who so far seem uninterested in my heterosexual pedophiliac activities."

BC has called upon his head soliciter, Vernon Jordan, "to line 'em up so he can fill 'em in!"

"I always heard guys give better blow jobs than girls," BC reportedly stated, "on accounta they know more about penises. And the younger, the I say, what the hell. I owe it to the country!"

(Sat Jan 31 1998 03:59 - ID#198170)
ZIVA - use common sense and courtesy
Please refrain from the long posts. Copy links with a short summary. Many of us are not interested in the kinds of things you have to share. You'll be listened to more is you talk softly and post a big link.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 04:12 - ID#255151)

I am sure that is what aurator was trying to say!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 04:28 - ID#257148)
sorry, Salty to US dictionary malfunctioned.. where is HAL??\\DAVE---

Auric: No, that is not what I was trying to say.

I was trying to say:

a ) Ziva is a pimple

b ) Ziva is a lunatic

c ) Fck off Ziva.

I can speak for myself. Fortunateley my fingers have more brains than Ziva.

I like Anglo Saxon, don't you?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 04:34 - ID#266105)

I sit corrected.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 04:43 - ID#432148)
DBog - Your 01:22
The poll takers stack the questions so that they get the answers they want IMHO. And what kind of poll takers do you think the Lib Media hires?
I have to believe the majority think less of BC because of all this. Yes, there are some who are blinded by their lib beliefs so that they would excuse him for anything, called rationalization. Other presidents were much more discreet in this area. For a guy in his position he could have been also. Makes one worry about the decisions he is going to make about Iraq etc.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 05:02 - ID#24135)
Good flick - may win GOLD
for Oris
If you like 1950 R&R then you probably would like 1950's
anyway - For outstanding re-creation of 1950s suggest see
film LA CONFIDENTIONAL - Also the guy that plays the chief
of police was the farmer in BABE - Looks/sounds like an
Aussie - could be wrong.
Believe this film nominated for some GOLD awards.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 05:29 - ID#266105)

No contest.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 05:54 - ID#316193)
Greenspan spoke plainly this week on Nightly Business Report

(Sat Jan 31 1998 06:30 - ID#316193)
Fiend's Excellent Wrap-up for the Week....

(Sat Jan 31 1998 06:34 - ID#364147)
@ Cape Breton
Beautiful sunrise over Scaterie Island this morning~~~~~~~~~

(Sat Jan 31 1998 06:36 - ID#364147)
Get lost!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 06:48 - ID#198170)
The largest shell game on earth! - Aren't we proud?
What follows is from

Here are the actual numbers, provided by my friend the economist John W. Williams. From November 1996 to November 1997, the government's debt went up $174.9 billion, including accumulated interest. "That's the amount the government spent beyond what it received in tax payments," says Williams. "That's how the average person would balance his checkbook. The rest is accounting gimmicks."

The difference, as I've said in this column before, is the fact that Washington counts the "surplus" now going into the Social Security trust fund as current income. The money is, in fact, merely on deposit with the government and will soon be needed by baby boomers.

It's as if your kids asked you to hold their allowance money and you, short of cash, decided to use it on groceries. Eventually, the kid is going to want his money back and you'll have to repay.

The other night, in the ultimate of ironies, President Clinton said he wanted to spend any future budget "surplus" to shore up the expected "deficit" in Social Security.

Keep an eye on the ball here.

Money comes out of Social Security to help give the illusion of a surplus in the federal budget. The illusionary surplus is then returned to Social Security so that it won't go broke. But the accountants figuring the government deficit will keep siphoning off from Social Security to create the illusionary budget surplus so that the money can continue to be channeled back into Social Security so it won't go broke.

Phewww! If you follow the money it goes in a circle. And in the end, neither Social Security or the federal deficit comes out on top.

If you keep the money moving fast enough, I guess nobody will notice the shell game. Or is this check kiting? Or is this fraud? Or is this just good, old-fashioned politics?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 07:21 - ID#316193)
Anything from John Crudele is welcome and appreciated. Thanks!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 07:40 - ID#185199)
Gold meeting

Does anyone know anything about a CB and gold CEO meeting in Europe this weekend?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 07:42 - ID#238295)

Much valuable info on Kaplan's site, but I repeat that he has become a negative indicator for bullion. He was bullish all the way down and probably will be bearish all the way up.

The large specs dominate the market. When they reduce short positions that is BULLISH NOT BEARISH.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 07:46 - ID#36965)
I'm here at the office working on my tax return. Thanks goodness in the USA we have a voluntary self-assessing system. Luckily I have all those great short-term capital losses to use for 1997. Ever year I am amazed that a family can live on the amount of income left after income, personal property, real estate and sales taxes. Surely this nation is taxing itself into poverty of the masses. Grumble, grumble, moan, moan!!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 07:51 - ID#36965)
Signs of the times
Morning Ted, I see you are out of the sack. It appears that Bubba Clinton is going to be in Taco Town this next Tuesday. One of the talk show hosts announce that President Clinton and his genetalia will be dropping in for a visit. Do you feel jealous? Here's some interesting signs I ran across:

On a ski lift in Taos, NM:
'No jumping from the lift. Survivors will be prosecuted.'
-Neal Karasic

Official sign near door: Door Alarmed.
Handprinted sign nearby: Window frightened.
- Janet LeResche

HEY, Life is still not fair for the guys
Found in a restaurant in England:

Guys: No shirt, No service
Girls: No shirt, No charge

Road sign seen on the island of Cyprus
( translation of the Greek ) :
'Caution: Road Slippery from Grapejuice'
- sglass

A sign advertising a Company wide skiing race
Let's see who can go downhill the fastest
-Terri Higinbothom

Sign in King's Canyon in California.
'Slow Parking Ahead'
William H.

A billboard seen next to the highway, travelling from
Johannesburg International Airport into town.
An Ad for BMW showing a photo of a BMW 328i convertible with the
roof and all the windows down.
The caption reads:' Our hardware runs better without WINDOWS!!!'
- Theo Coetzee

Two signs found on top of one another in a country
kitchen several years ago:


Please wait for hostess to seat you.
- Brian Mahler

Sign in front of church in Montpelier, VT:
Bingo Friday night at 8:00pm
Quickies Thursday at 7:30pm.
- Kirsten Duell

Seen in a health food store_
" Shoplifters will be beaten over the head with an organic carrot "
- AEM13

If you're smoking, you'd better be on fire.
- Stacey Konowitz

"Children left unattended will be towed at parents expense."
- SP Pirate

I went to a little hole in the wall restaurant:
the sign read: Women are not served here...
You have to bring your own.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 07:55 - ID#57232)
Bart - We've been Ziva'd
All: I would guess for the period of 1/31/98, about 75% of the bandwidth is from Ziva.

Ziva: Most of us are well read, and are familiar with what you are posting. Why don't you just post us web sites, and stop hogging the airways? Also, if you continue misquoting us -- any arguments you present will not be examined at all.

You should be aware by now that this cyberworld is Bart Kitner's creation, and in his reality we play by his rules, or not at all. He is a fair person -- but he can disconnect any of us if he thinks we are disrupting this site.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 08:22 - ID#57232)
Comments on the Morning paper
William Bennett ( former Drug Czar ) is quoted as saying that Clinton should be more forthright about his activiies, as ( despite his popularity ) what he does affects the moral compass of the country. I agree. Think what it does to the younger generation, and to the women's rights movement ( which Rush Limbaugh notes as strangely silent ) . I thought the concept behind the modern liberal was equaility for all -- and women in this country are expected to be on their knees infront of the President? It's hard when the individual you support lives by a double standard, isn't it? I'm not a fan of Rush Limbaugh, but I do like his counterpoint to the rather biased news we get from the liberal media.

I find it amusing that the 'black sheep' of the Bennett family is William Bennett's brother, Robert Bennett, one of BC's laywer team. Too bad William Bennett has no influence over his prother.

I didn't know that the President of the United States could legally pay for so many private lawyers using public funds. How many congressman are doing that?

My impression of the Monicagate situation: The tide has shifted back in favor of BC, and away from Starr -- at least on the surface. My guess is that Starr will come up with something eventually if his investigation has not been compromised in some way -- but it is very hard to piece together a case that will stand up when BC is enjoying such general support from the 'people'.

BC will remain in power until the economy tanks or a military fiasco of some kind shifts the tide again. If that happens, BC will be a liability to the mysterious group that pushed him into the limelight. I for one would not want to be in that situation. The members of that hidden group are probably already gathering a list of replacement candidates. Reminds me of what the Mafia does. They have a public figurehead that is 'clean' that they manipulate. If the figurehead gets dirty they throw it away and get another clean one. Lots of fun and perks for a while, but with sudden departure likely.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 08:32 - ID#57232)
Japan situation -- we need traslations from our Kitco financial experts
Donald,SDRer: What's your assessment of the Japan situation? I am no banker, but I would guess that if only three major banks in Japan can borrow funds on the international markets, that is the worst news since the 1990 Japanese market crashed. Are there any SEAsian countries that are liquid? The subequent downturn in SEAsian markets could be bearish short term for gold as OldGold as said. I have decided to hold onto my gold investments, and buy more on the next major dip.

AG has told us that the SEAsia Tsunami will wash on our shores during the end of our first quarter, and the deflationary effect may be beneficial. So- no rising ( short term ) interest rates. I gather he also said that labor pressures do still raise the possibility of inflation to return. I would interpret this as the optimal situation for gold -- an inflationary situation where the FED does not dare increase rates.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 08:43 - ID#24135)
Master of the understated posting
for 2bro2b
Nobody's ever gonna accuse you of monopolizing bandwidth.
A toast.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 08:44 - ID#57232)
Capital Losses?
Torfeasor: Can you claim your family as a capital loss? The're eating me out of house and home!!! Ever see a teenage boy empty the refrigerator?

I enjoyed your jokes --

Entertaining as always. Saw an interesting news byte about two skydivers who were narrowly missed by a commercial airplane. I was then wondering what the pilot was thinking about being narrowly missed by the skydivers. Much bigger than a goose, and how do you fly the plane with a white parachute over the nose of the plane! Do you ask one of the stewardesses to lean out the window with a knife? And -- just how long can you fly on automatic pilot?

Should all sky divers carry transponders so that the tower can identify them, and what do they do if they are told to hold their landing pattern?

Interesting questions. I think I would rather be buzzed by a UFO.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 08:46 - ID#93232)
From the Teepee of Rothschild.....
Not only does the baron have all the gold...he's got all the good rum. What do we collectively know about CSR rum...drank a fifth last night....lighter than a feather...not a bad hangover...need more information...he who has da' gold has da' rum...none for the proletariat, alas.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 08:55 - ID#93232)
Do you happen to know how much a new liver cost?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 09:02 - ID#93232)
I'm hoping Mr. Kit. doesn't read your 3:57....could be lights out, pard.

El Nino
(Sat Jan 31 1998 09:08 - ID#217139)
I think Ziva's postings are great even tho they ar long. he has much to teach us. I wish his writings could be put at Veronski golden eagle.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 09:16 - ID#93232)
@Baroness Rothschild......
Please e.mail me @> . Thank you very much. BTB ( back to bed )

(Sat Jan 31 1998 09:53 - ID#333131)
Fed policy, tightening?
The Fed put the breaks on hard in January on growth in the monetary base. They soaked up over 11B of currency in curculation. This was enough to slow the year over year growth rate from 9.1% at the end of December to 6.8% at the end of January. For comparison, the compound anual growth rate in the monetary base over the last 11 years has been 7.4% ( my calculation ) . This indicates to me that Greenspan is tilted toward tightening and is more worried about inflation than deflation. Those looking for lower interest rates may have a costly surprise.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 09:59 - ID#57232)
Biological Warfare, National Debt: hide it under the rug!
jcw: Thanks for the JAMA post -- I should review the whole issue, as I would be part of a local cleanup if our little part of the world became a target. We must not forget evacuation and decontamination.

With regard to the National debt -- When the baby boomers start to retire en masse around 2010-2015, the old shell game with funding the US government with excess Social Security funds will collapse. I wonder how many baby boomers expect ever to see their social security money again. Think what would happen to Microsoft, GM or IBM if they did this to their retirees!

By the way -- raising the national debt is a great way to increase the money supply -- it's 'non inflationary' because some other elected official will be in office when the inflationary effects become evident. Don't have to ask Congress for the money if you have access to the national debt spigot. Great way to support the IMF.

We worry about the US along these lines -- but Germany and France are in worse shape right now with their entitlements, according to the Economist, and other sources. But -- they can only go by the official figures, which may not be accurate.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:00 - ID#398105)
El Nino..Mate stick to the sound like a Clinton supporter !

Date: Sat Jan 31 1998 09:08
El Nino ( Ziva ) ID#217139:

El Nino
(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:05 - ID#217139)
My gosh you are a rude dog
P off

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:07 - ID#31868)
RE: Liver cost. What form of life will the inventory be placed in?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:07 - ID#57232)
Putting on the Brakes?
Carl: What's up? Why is AG talking about deflation worries, and putting on the brakes at the same time? Was he worried that the dollar would go south in January? I do think he will protect the dollar first, and the markets/economy second, because if the dollar tanks, the markets will tank also. He's getting closer and closer to being between a rock and a hard place with our aging economic growth phase that we are in right now -- with most other countries in recession or worse.

Any comments about the Japanese situation? I don't like what I read at all.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:07 - ID#398105)
Mate, stick to the weather...............

Date: Sat Jan 31 1998 09:08
El Nino ( Ziva ) ID#217139:

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:11 - ID#398105)
El Nino,,,,,,cause and effect........tell us what you know ?!

Don't piss in pockets.

El Nino
(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:14 - ID#217139)
A rude fellow who hasnt much t0 say fer himself
I suppose you are a lewinsky admirer

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:28 - ID#7568)

Cash money is a very small part of short term liquidity, somewhere around 8% I believe. The fluctuations in the cash in circulation account may well have something to do with the changeover in hundred and fifty dollar bills. M3 growth is accelerating. The brakes are definitely not in play.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:28 - ID#347457)
@El Nino and Ziva
El Nino, I dont think that anybody is asking Ziva to stop posting ( at least I am not ) , however, she should change the way she participates. Excessive quotes from previous posts, inclusion of long posts instead of links, repeated posts saying the same things ( even re-posting her own posts, to remind us of her presencer alla - did you read it ? ) , multiple posts on more post supporting my view ., and quite frankly, excessive posts on conspiracies, UFO, and other supernatural happening is more that many people on this forum can deal with..

Not a censorship, just asking for a higher dose of courtesy.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:29 - ID#398105)
El Nino......I'm not a Yank.......lets talk about GOLD.....

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:35 - ID#398105)
El Nino.........what do you think........or are you a "new way guy"... What is El Nino

JTF ( Biological Warfare, National Debt: hide it under the rug! )

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:36 - ID#333131)
Many of us have been looking for the spark that will set off gold. I think Greenspan is looking at gold as the spark that will set off an uncontrolable disaster in the markets and the economy. I agree with your observation that he's in a tough place that's getting tougher. I continue to believe that US labor markets are much tighter than is widely believed. This is not a short term problem. The demographics of the work force plus the explosion in demand for highly technical skills plus the trashing of the middle class work ethic in favor of get-rich-anyway-you-can ethic, are all conspiring toward an explosion in labor costs. Take just one area: a skilled master auto mechanic friend of mine says that 10,000 new highly technically skilled auto mechanics will be needed in two years. The evolving complexity of automobiles is such that they not only don't know where they are going to get them, but they don't even know how they can get the teachers to train them. This kind of thing is why I think you hear Greenspan talking so much about education of the work force. I think he sees what's happening and feels helpless to head it off.

As to Japan, Donald's post's continue to chart the gathering storm in their financial system, What's on the horizon is going to be unseen until some aufull surprise emerges from the back rooms of their banks and insurance companies and brokerages. IMHO

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:37 - ID#7568)
global growth

Most of the world economies are far from recession or worse and in fact are in good shape. Global growth in 1998 might have come in at its best level in better than a decade without the Asian collapse. Even with it, growth rates are likely to be equal or better than 1997.

Why does everyone believe that economies are going to hell in a hand basket when the evidence does not at all point in this direction?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:41 - ID#57232)
Thanks for your comments
D.A.: Your comments make sense -- I thought AG made it pretty clear that deflation was the overriding concern, so the expansion of the money supply will continue. And -- if congress refuses to give the 18 billion for the IMF, he will undoubtedly chip in. Looks like one good place to hide the debt created by the monetary expansion is in the national debt -- other than just printing the money -- which is more inflationary.
Any comments about the marked drying up of liquidity in SEAsia? Hard to have a goods Tsunami if there is little trade, it would seem. Also -- I don't have a clue why cry0 is taking off. Are these two events commected?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:42 - ID#398105) are a "wee" bit slow.............


The Bhoys have been doing this for a 1000 years. Richard the Lion Heart !

El Nino
(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:42 - ID#217139)
OK im just a learner and I dont know much about gold but im amazed how rude people are to each other here. If someone doesnt like something that someone says then that person is cursed. if the posting is to big then the person is scolded. i read thru this thread every day to try and learn and i can say most of it doesnt make much sense anyway, I just thiought that person had something to say. Its not reason to start a war

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:44 - ID#398105)
El Nino....sorry Mate......dry your ears........

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:46 - ID#348286)
@JOHN KAISER on 1998 GOLD outlook
Gold: overhauling its ownership structure

In the case of gold, what we are seeing is massive liquidation by central banks of an asset that no longer serves them any purpose. Gold will never become an official standard backing currencies. But it will always serve as an alternative currency for private individuals. Right now the US dollar is the preferred haven for capital as it appreciates against all currencies. Not too long ago everybody was worried about a sinking dollar. At some point the dollar will reverse against other currencies, though not necessarily all of them. An individual in some other country who is not particularly confident about his own currency's stability may wonder which of the uptrending currencies is the safest. Whose printing presses will start doing overtime? The nice thing about gold is that the cheaper it gets, the more fixed becomes the existing supply. Unlike a currency, of which you can simply print more as its buying power declines so that the devaluation fuels itself, the more gold's buying power declines, the less of this metal will come into existence through new production. In fact, because gold has an intrinsic attraction as jewelry, the cheaper this stuff gets, the more it will be removed from the market as it gets converted into jewelry. There is no bottom to the buying power of a currency bill or share certificate, but there is for gold. Once the central banks have dispersed their gold holdings so that it is no longer concentrated in a few large blocks, the risk of random and ruthless selling will diminish. I like to draw parallels with the resource juniors and institutional shareholders. The 1997 meltdown was exacerbated by a rush by institutions to unload large stock positions they that suddenly no longer fit their parameters. Much of this paper has now been washed into the market and no longer has the form of a hammer hovering above the market. Some institutions such as those which specialize in resource stocks have kept their positions and do not represent near term selling threats. They are like the central banks of the United States and Switzerland, which have no intention of selling their gold reserves. What did I say? Didn't Switzerland recently announce its intent to start selling its gold reserves in two years? I don't believe this threat for minute. The Swiss, as we are discovering of late, may be many things, but stupid isn't one of them. When was the last time somebody announced to the world that soon, but not now, they would slam the bid? More likely the clever Swiss are trying to shake out other central banks so that the main obstacle to a long term uptrend in the price of gold gets removed more quickly. I estimate this process could take about two years, at which point the Swiss will "discover" reasons why dumping their gold is not such a wise thing. Until the ownership structure of gold changes to one where central bank vaults are largely empty, gold will stay trapped in a bear market. We will probably see a number of rallies in 1998 to as high as $350 that are fueled by short-covering binges, but these rallies will be crushed by further ruthless selling. The resource juniors will no doubt bubble up during these rallies, and speculators should not hesitate to sell into these doomed bouts of enthusiasm. As far as gold exploration is concerned, my attitude is that any new discovery won't see production for at least 3-4 years, by which time I think the structural problem posed by the central banks will have disappeared. By then the pressure from producer forward selling will have diminished in response to mine shutdowns and the shelving of mine development plans. I would thus continue to view significant new gold discoveries in terms of a $350-$400 future gold price.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:48 - ID#398105) your husband still away ? What was that joke ............

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:49 - ID#426220)

JTF: Your question "Any comments about the Japanese situation? I don't like what I read at all."

A seraching and question answering account of the Japanese Banking System teetering on collapse is to be found in the report: "Economic Collapse vs Economic Destruction" - authored by one of the world's foremost experts of the Asian scene. Since it would take up a considerable amount of Kitco band-width ( which seems to be an annoying problem of late ) , it may be found at the golden eagle's nest. I trust you know its location.

"Economic Collapse vs Economic Destruction"

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:50 - ID#257136)
jcw: Post big link! Dbog sick society
jcw: Hope ol' ziva takes the voluminous hints s/he has been given these past several hours.
While some of its postings titillate my curiousity, I gotta agree that a link after a brief description of contents is preferable to what we have going on now.

Ya got it right 'bout the society. A large group of people generally gets not only a representative of what they collectively ARE, but also receive what the majority deserve. This in free elections only!!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:53 - ID#257114)
Does anyone have an opinion on IRI ( Investment Rarities ) located in Minnesota? Are their prices in line with others? Thanks.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:53 - ID#261157)
El Nino...go away!!!
Ziva is a she!!! She was O.K. in the beginning, but now it is too much of her.
This is a gold and PM investors forum. If you have nothing to contribute to this matter, just watch and be quiet like me.
Who is Veronski ???
Do not assault people who have great contribution in GOLD issue here. ( Haggis__A, etc. ) You did not contribute anything as smart so far.

Buena suerte senor El Nino, pero este lugar no es para los ninos.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:54 - ID#57232)
Most of the world's economies in good shape?
D.A.: I think we have 17% unemployment in France, with Germany in a similar tight spot -- so with the Exception of England, Europe does not look that great. Russia is in dire straits, but fortunately is not linked into the interantional economic community.

South America up to this point has been in pretty good shape -- economy wise, but Argentina's CE is apparently broke, Brazil has returning inflation problems -- do they still have 40% interest rates? Mexico is quietly devaluing the Peso.

One third of the world's economy is in SEAsia, and only China and Taiwan are in pretty good shape. My relatives in Hong Kong are saying that real estate is plummeting. South Korea is a basket case, and now I learn that there are only 3 or 4 banks in Japan that non-Japanese banks will loan to. There is talk about an Indian devaluation, and denials of Chinese devaluation are becoming more frequent.

And -- a confrontation in the Middle East appears imminent. The Israelis are buying gas masks again.

So -- outside the Americas, are things really all that great, even if they were last year?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:55 - ID#398105)
Ziva.....with respect.......have your batteries run flat !!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 10:59 - ID#57232)
Misprint -- sorry! Got to go to work - rats!
D.A. I meant Argentina's Central Bank, not Argentina's CE. Apparently they were playing around with gold loans or derivatives, and are now in red ink -- up to their eyeballs, I think.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:00 - ID#333131)
Perhaps ( probably ) I'm just being a dense old foggy, but I view the relation between actual currency and liquidity in the economy as the relation between seed corn and the harvest. Small changes yield large consequences in both. As to world economies, the problems brewing are in the finacial systems due to decades of debt leverage. Anyone can be prosperous, or appear to be so, when they spend lots of money. The problem comes when they can't cover the chit.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:01 - ID#365190)
interesting website on asian financial crisis

quite extensive and might take a while to digest. only for those of sound mind and time to spare. you have been warned.

:- )

(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:05 - ID#57232)
Thanks, Vronsky --- got to go to work! Tomorrow too.
What I am really interested in is comments about Donald's post yesterday about Japan. How can you run a country if only three or for banks are acceptable for foreign credit? Are we days, weeks, months etc. from a total collapse of the world's largest economies? I read in one of Donald's posts that Japan was trying to prop up its banks to the tune of $20-30 billion US per day!

Just a matter of time, I think -- agreed?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:06 - ID#398105)
Ziva, I quote from you.....

"Now, they're turned loose. These rats, like Soros, are turned
loose, destroying entire economies".

The only reason why GOLD is of value, is because people like Soros had the "balls" to put their money where their mouth was - eg South Africa.

GOLD exploration and mining is NOT easy .

(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:08 - ID#220272)
John Disney,

A friend just emailed me this info on Randgold. Thought your camel might want it : )


Randgold chairman Peter Flack yesterday said that the company was now ready for take-over bids. The key assets under Randgold's control include London-listed Randgold Resources and Crown Consolidated Gold Recoveries. He said no offers were on the table as yet, but bidding by an interested party would start at about R350m, its market valuation. Flack confirmed that Randgold Resources was in a strong position and had a clear strategy of developing a number of cost-effective opencast mines in Africa. Crow reported a maiden profit in the December quarter, despite the low gold price. Flack said he believed that Crown's long-term future lay in developing opportunities offshore.

PUBLISHER : Business Day, Business

Report & Citizen Business

(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:08 - ID#344308)


the post relative to self-medication with anti-bio's--vet grade--
was written by larry harris......i cannot comment on the veracity
of the chemicals and levels suggested......each will have to deal
with his own mortatlity....and any possible way to extend it.....

the seed has been laid in the ground.......again....take the first step..

by the way-------

THE US SOLD IRAQ AND IRAN-----ANTHRAX-&-PLAUGE-----they have it....will
they use it? saddam has already gassed his own people and iranians....


(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:12 - ID#31581)
MoReGoLd your 10:46 post was extremely interesting.
It's hard to disagree with your analysis of the thinking and actions of the Central Banks. Also, I agree that the politicans in this world will never agree to backing currency with anything as finite as gold. However, I do believe that IF and WHEN the time comes ( and it is possible that it will ) , that currency devaluations take on a universally large magnitude, gold would start such a run that for CBs to sell their holdings at that time would seem like heresy even though the price may be far higher. Over time, the psychology of the moment becomes the truth and people are then guided by that; for an example of that, just look at the valuations in the stock market and compare them to what the media was saying in 1982 or 1987 or 1990.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:13 - ID#257136)
El Nino- or whatever Quite a while back I [posted the means by which you will be enabled to
correctly spell El Nio. Get it? El Nio??

One is always forgiven for not knowing.
One cannot be forgiven for sloth.

Here's how you make the tilde ~ ~ appear in your writing:
for each time you desire the ~ to appear at the top of the letter N, do these few moves:
1. Hold down on Alt. key while using the ten key ( numbered keys to lower right of keyboard )
to enter the numbers 1 6 4.

Don't hold down on the number keys. As soon as you've finished the 4, release the Atl. key and MIRA!! TU tienes su ~ ( tilde ) !! Ay Caramba!!! Look at what I did!!
NTIN ( no thanks are necessary )

(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:13 - ID#398105)
Global Positioning Systems.........something is a foot.........

Over the last couple of days, I have been out and about looking for a couple of gold prospects north of Coolgardie in Western Australia.

Normally, my Magellan GPS 2000 takes about 5 minutes to coordinate - BUT it has being taking 2 hours.

Something is a foot ?! Satelites !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:18 - ID#57232)
Just saw your post
Carl: Thanks. I agree that if the Japan situation implodes, we may have an unexpected event on this side of the world. Could be delayed. All depends on how sucessful AG and RR are at 'econuclear' containment. That relatively small Kredinstaten bank in Austria did the trick in the early thirties, so the trigger event may not be obvious until well after the fact.

Sure hope that China has enough sense to hold off on devaluation until the Japanese situation looks better. That would be enough to finish off Japan if that happened now, I think.

Wild times we live in -- agreed?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:22 - ID#57232)
GPS slowdown
Haggis: Kitco slows down when the gold market is very active. Those GPS's might now be directed to military applications in the same way! Why don't you keep us up to date -- could be interesting!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:24 - ID#398105)
Ziva......... LAROUCHE is a wacko.........

IF, you ever start reading ANY of his articles... and, you start to speed read, then you finish.......and you say "what was that all about".

The "boy" is a fruit loop...when they made the cake, they missed out the flour !

A simple all of his articles...should keep you off the streets...think about it, THINK, then in ONE LINE summarise!!

When is your Husband back ?????

(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:26 - ID#398105)
JTF (GPS slowdown)......exactly

(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:29 - ID#398105)
Ziva............I can't buy you roses, but I can give you this....

(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:35 - ID#93232)
@T#1.....(where can I get some plutonium too?)
The liver is for me....I was just gettin' my dibbs in for Camdessus's it...I'll pay you for it. Mine was mortally wounded last night....leakin' out the navel a bit....can't make it much longer.

Madame Baroness Rothschild,

Is there an antidote for your rum? Please call.

PH in LA
(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:38 - ID#225408)
Para Bestobe
"Si este lugar no es para nios", donde deben irse los nios para aprender? Y a propsito, quin es usted para mandar a la gente que se vaya? Sus propios comentarios no han sido tan impresionantes, si no recuerdo mal.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:42 - ID#411149)
OLD GOLD- don't know where that boy lernt that stuff, maybe schoop or some book. I lernt it on the street, U know PHD in experience.
Any DAMN fool jest got to know gold issa goin through the roof.
Gold Newsletter - January issue, 19 reasons to buy gold NOW!!
My street experience issa mentioned on page 17 middle column.

Tally Ho

(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:51 - ID#347457)
@Haggis on GPS
Haggis, as far as I understand GPS working, it would be pretty much impossible to 'slow down' GPS for a specific area. Satellites send signal, your GPS is a receiver. All processing goes in your receiver this means that 'slow down' would impact everybody. Disabling is a different story. It would be possible to disable all but a specific recipients ( e.g. US military ) who can adjust to different scrambled signals. JMHO. If they did, It would have a great impact on commercial transportation ( maritime, airlines, etc. )

(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:51 - ID#31868)
I would never do that to you, I would never allow any part or portion of that thing that screws dogs called Camdesuss near you or allow a doctor to perform such a crime against humanity.

My suggestion, go get a big glass, make a large drink of that which you drank last evening. Your liver is seeking air so it is trying to squeeze through your navel. Once you have had a couple of mouthfuls the decision between air and drink will force your liver to make the only choice it can and return to its normal cavity section as it seeks out what it really wants, the drink.

Oh, of course, put on cartoons.

Feelin better already eh.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:53 - ID#254269)
@ Carl re your 10.36. You have some very interesting points in this post.

While almost everyone on this site knows vastly more about gold and trading than I do, I tend to have a bit of an international view. YOu may be correct; an explosion in gold prices may be the spark that they are trying to avoid., because it would be all over the nightly news and something that the "common man" could relate to, even if he doesn't understand all of the reasons, politics, etc.

PH in LA
(Sat Jan 31 1998 11:59 - ID#225408)
GPS & tilde for Macintosh
I trust you have studied the manual for your GPS. If I recall correctly, the unit would be forced to do a cold start if the internal lithium battery lost power or became depleted since the GPS unit remembers it's last position every time it is turned on. The cold start would take much longer although two hours seems too long for such an explanation. I believe 20 minutes would be normal. In any case, I will be on my boat later today and will check to see if there is some abnormality in place for the coming military activity in the ME. Will report tomorrow if necessary.

Thanks for your explanation on how to insert the tilde into text from the IBM operating system. In case El Nino uses a Mac, the procedure would be simpler. Just hold down the option key, type "n" with it down, then release it and type "n" again. Voil,    etc.... It would probably be more difficult for him to insert it into his handle since the Kitco webmaster would have to grant a special dispensation to change his existing handle. On the other hand, perhaps El Nino doesn't want to be known as El Nio, at all.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 12:04 - ID#31868)
Hello people
"They" this hidden group of whomevers has no further control. It is over, gone goodbye, outta here. The Asians are in hell, they will never forget this. They are inhaling gold and silver.

The West is a big fat pig ready for the slaughter, plain and simple. Paper is going to destroy itself. Japan is already in financial flames. They are buying what, gold and silver and platinum.

Game up. The three monkess on the hill yesterday proved that. There is no magic just lies. Thats all plain and simple. Once again, the monkees on the hill yesterday - liars one and all. Game up. The body collective will writhe a little bit further and then hit the ground like a sack full of lead.

Game up -holdcash, buy metals and invest in mines and sit back. They have prolonged the inevitable and it is going to not bite but tear their collective ass's off.

Of course, in my very humble opinion.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 12:06 - ID#254269)
@ tolerant one; very humble opinion ?; I don't think so.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 12:07 - ID#31868)
I'm shocked, I was being as easy going as I can for a Saturday.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 12:10 - ID#254269)
@ tol;erant one; I posted that with a big silly grin on my face .

(Sat Jan 31 1998 12:12 - ID#31868)
gulp, a shot of tequila at ya

(Sat Jan 31 1998 12:12 - ID#93232)
@T#1......Bless you sir...(gulp) worked.

BANKERS ARE SCARED TO DEATH OF GOLD AND ITS CONCEPT...Their only product is paper. Don't make the mistake of talking to one of them about I did last evening....I thought this banker dude was going to kick my ass. He really flipped! They are really scared of it.

( NOW BACK TO OUR MAIN TOPIC ) I need some plutonium...I think I have a brain tumor...I went by the feed and seed and picked up some horse and cattle aureomycin...and I'm going to rig up a home radiation machine for a little radiation treatment...saving money where I can, boss.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 12:23 - ID#238295)
Tzadeak: Agree that US probably will renew pressure on the IMF to sell gold before long. However, with Germany and France opposed, whether the IMF will actually sell any gold is highly uncertain. With gold and gold stocks increasingly in very strong hands, I doubt if the yellow will drop much when these rumors hit the press. Just postponing the inevitable a little longer.

My take is that we are in the very early phase of a new gold bull, but the going will he slow for awhile. My estimates for peak gold prices are $320 for the first half, $350 for the second half, $450 for 1999, and $500-$600 for the year 2000. Volatility will be very high -- a trader's paradise.

Finally saw some sensible stuff in the Palm Beach Post on the Middle East. Reporter pointed out that Iraq's prime goal is to end the embargo that has cost it hundreds of thousands of lives. They apparently feel that provoking an attack will help it towards that objective. All the rest is bull.

BTW, why is the US so concerned when others develop powerful weapons? With US still having overwhelming military superiority, we do not have to fear a first strike from anyone. No, the real reason our leaders are worried, is that stronger weapons in the hands of others might enable them to retaliate against a US first strike. That is and always has been the issue. Our leaders want to feel free to attack without fear of meaningful retaliation.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 12:25 - ID#254269)
What is the specific objective in the Middle East ? I watched Jim Lehrer's

show last night ( yes, I do have a life apart from Kitco ) and he had a couple of retired generals on the show. They all raised the same concerns, i.e. what does B C hope to achieve if he goes after Saddam
and none of them could answer the question .
Who was it who said; First you commit the nation; then you commit the troops. Looks like this administration has got it backwards.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 12:27 - ID#31868)
I am off to visit with Pedro as I must have my Tequila Tanker filled. It should take about 45 minutes to load the 7500 gallons and sit and munch some yote with him and his brother Jorge.

Most certainly I shall ask them about the plutonium, I am sure they have some as I glowed in the dark for a week after the last tanker full.

Perhaps we could start a new craze where the criminals burst into the bank and only shoot the bankers. Not the tellers or the guards, let me make that perfectly clear, and of course not the customers. In addition, they take gold and silver out and give it to the customers, take their money and make a bonfire with it in the middle of the floor.

Running out of the bank yelling Go Gold and Silver!

All to the tune of Steve Miller's

(Sat Jan 31 1998 12:28 - ID#270349)
Haggis_A, If you would be kind enough
I am planning an extended trip to Perth. I have several questions regarding the amount of gold, platinum, silver and cash I can bring into the country from the USA. Also US$ conversions, and living expenses in Perth. My e-mail is

(Sat Jan 31 1998 12:28 - ID#7568)

I agree that the biggest problem in world's economy is the debt overhang. However, at the moment, governments have no problem in peddling this stuff. Exactly, the opposite is the current situation. Worldwide government bond markets are at all time highs all over the place. The problem with debt comes when nobody wants it, not when everyone is falling all overthemselves trying to get a piece. Debt falls out of favor when people believe that inflation is coming. At the moment, this is the furthest thought from the collective economic consciousness. If we are truly at the flip side of 1980 then we are at the begining of the reflationary cycle. Only after it gets going quickly will debt fall out of favor. We are a long way from there.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 12:34 - ID#7568)

Whatever retaliatory means are at the disposal of the US have little or no meaning to those waging a holy war. The rational calculus which would give you or I pause, does not register for many. Think back to the world trade center bombing. The intent there was to topple the towers killing perhaps 100,000 people. The only reason this was unsuccessful was that the bombers lacked the means. I for one am very happy to see the US exerting massive effort in attempting to keep these means beyond reach.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 12:37 - ID#243180)
Midas @03:46
You are kidding right ???

At one time I was in charge of 46 computer networks of which only 1 was my homebase. I'd forward all the root/system/my_login mail to this central location -- someone once asked: "How do U remember all the password for all the different networks".

The answer is simple.

BUT, if I discussed my strategy openly that would provide insight into how I think and therefore allow those smarter than I to hack-away-at-my-brain.

The answer midas is ....

(Sat Jan 31 1998 12:38 - ID#261157)
PH in LA & El Nino
O.K. I agree. Accept my apology.
But children usually just ask questions, when they are learning.
I will be quite now.

Gracias hermanos.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 12:41 - ID#344308)


i agree with your most recent.......except the sittin-back part.....

this will not be possible un-less you live quite distant from
major population areas.........

imagine......the majority of america gainfully employed and
with money in the bank.....


massive lay-offs and the collapse of our currency...just as in asia...

there is so much more wealth here in the states........more to lose if you will......the center of the financial universe........

plus.........IT CANNOT HAPPEN HERE! ......this is america........that
very arrogance.......the deniability of the past being repeated in the
future......the NEW PARADIGM is one of perpetual economic boom, right????

that is what the new-age economists have been telling the world.........
the astonishing results in equities.....and they have been, no doubt....
but what of the consequences of building a huge house with no concern
for construction of a proper foundation.....

the foundation in this case would have been the continuity between
currencies, and their and silver......

this is the cause of the coming financial
not caring for ethnicity, gender, sanity, cultures, or continental

the policies of the politicians and their cronies.........all due to greed, and the need, to control and dominate their fellow

today, we cannot but by imagination, comprehend the severity of the
problems occuring in asia and behind closed doors in japan........
the 'free press' has an insulary effect......huge filter......
rest assured, the problems are so big and over-whelming, as to make
the current numbers look like a childs allowance....

recent numbers ( mi ) from japan suggests their banks losses to be closer
to 1 TRILLION us$ than the 200-400billion pre-supposed......

the us is fixing to be persona non gratis world-wide.........our
us$ is already despised and being plotted against......our military
forces are despised and are being set-up in the middle-east.......
saddam holds the deck and is dealing off the bottom.......

i submit........we re-trench via isolationism......let the world consume
it-self as it has for ALL RECORDED HISTORY......let the balkans explode..
let the middle east become a solid sheet of glass.........the us must heal her-self before she can under-take the same task for the entire

.......we must focus on what made the us great...
that must come from with-in........that is where it always has been.....


(Sat Jan 31 1998 12:42 - ID#93232)
After Pedro and Jorge' fill the tanker up.....don't forget to throw in a couple of bull snakes....same concept as the little worm....but more befitting the tequila tanker.

wrestle the little blood sucker to the ground, place a gold bullion coin on his forehead...he'll melt in less then 10 seconds. He will suck no one's blood no more!


(Sat Jan 31 1998 12:47 - ID#286199)
Silver Update from Barrons
Conspiracy Theory

Why has silver's price jumped?

By Cheryl Strauss Einhorn

Key Commodity Indexes

Silver is golden lately. Prices have rallied 14% in the past two weeks, to $6.13 an ounce, amid a backdrop of intrigue and conspiracy. The mystery: Why have warehouse supplies of silver shrunk so starkly?

The bulls say the market is moving higher because of strong fundamental demand. The bears say prices have risen because silver stocks have been removed from Comex warehouses, air-freighted to England and hidden in private warehouses.

With regard to that, a suit was filed last week in U.S. District Court in New York alleging that Phibro, the commodities trading arm of Traveler's Group's Salomon Smith Barney unit, and 10 other unnamed defendants acted to manipulate prices in 1997's second half.

The suit, filed on behalf of Kerry Seale, a farmer in British Columbia who runs a company called Golden Harvest, is based largely on the premise that copper, gold and silver tend to trade in the same direction. And copper and gold ( until very recently ) have been in decline.

Says Phibro's general counsel, Michael Young: "We categorically deny ever having moved or shipped any silver. We are more interested in macro or fundamental plays than in physical arbitrage" between New York and London. Lawyers for the plaintiff failed to return phone calls.

When the suit was disclosed, the market dropped dramatically, by almost 30 cents, in part because the announcement coincided with London options expirations. Some suspicious traders point out that rumors of manipulation could help anyone interested in seeing prices slide. By the close of trading, however, prices had rebounded to close only five cents below where they had started out the day.

In any case, silver historically has been more volatile than other precious metals. In fact, since 1975, silver and gold have traded in opposite directions 28% of the time.

Since 1990, the amount of silver used in fabricated products, such as electronics or jewelry, has exceeded supplies of newly mined or refined metal. At the start of that period, massive stores of silver -- perhaps more than one billion ounces -- existed. This kept prices from rising despite a deficit of newly refined metal, relative to fabrication demand. By 1997, much of these supplies had been used, as evidenced by the sharp drop in Comex reported inventories. Inventories in London and Zurich fell, too.

By last summer, the London market was said to be out of silver. And while that market usually trades higher than the Comex, in part because its silver contract demands a higher-quality metal, the spread widened enough so that it became profitable to take silver from New York's Comex, refine it to upgrade the quality, and then ship it to London. Even with the shipments, however, supply couldn't satisfy demand in London. By December, inventories there were very low again.

Today, the markets are fully inverted -- that is, nearby prices of silver in New York and London command higher prices than silver for future delivery at almost any time during 1998. This shows that supplies for immediate delivery are tight. When supplies are ample, there's a storage charge for holding a commodity until sold or delivered.

London's spot price also is trading at a historically wide margin over Comex prices. On Friday, the "exchange-for-physical," as this is known, was tighter than it has ever been; cash prices were almost 10 cents above nearby futures. That is an all-time record. On average, the EFP trades at a two-cent premium. At four cents, it's profitable to move New York metal to London.

'Free Markets'
Hing Lum, who trades metal at manufacturer and refiner Handy & Harman says, "We understand there is plenty of silver in private London vaults, such as JP Morgan's vaults, that isn't being let out." Given current prices, that points to someone holding the metal with a goal of pushing prices higher. However, he hastens to add, "Commodities markets are free markets. If someone wants to own a lot of metal, they should be able to."

So, what will happen? Prices will remain quite volatile. Indeed, options volatility has increased markedly. And with call options more volatile than puts, traders are betting that the future direction will be up. How high could it go? Joe Rosta at CPM Group, a metals-research firm, thinks it could trade to $8 in '98. As for Phibro, traders say it has been very active in silver, buying futures and options and doubling its bets at times. Does that make the company evil? No. It just means that, like other investors, Phibro has a market view.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 12:48 - ID#238295)
Middle east
DA; Since US was reaponsiblw for the death of hundreds of thousands of Iraqi CIVILIANS because of the embargo and infrastructure devastation, I can see why many in the middle east might want to kill hundreds of thousands of Americans. Some day they will do so unless US policy in the region changes dramtically.

The plain fact is that no government on earth is more ruthless than ours. What goes around will some day come around.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 12:53 - ID#411233)
Sorry Kurt, couldn't keep the secret any longer.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 13:00 - ID#254269)
Dow may go higher according to Bert Dohmen ;

(Sat Jan 31 1998 13:05 - ID#201131)
Its 1980 in reverse
This last six months has put an end to the CB policies that were started by Paul Volcker in 1979. Up until now we have been able to run a tight money ( money supply ) easy credit policy around the world that favored bond holders as long as they didnt own the zombie bonds that were hurt by disinflation. It is only when pain is inflicted on investors do CB's change their ways and we are seeing pain around the world. The fix is in and we should now do what we were told to do in 1980 when it was the wrong thing to do. Just take out the old 1980's tapes and say this is what I need to do now. Hey for what it is worth disco is making a big comeback around here as well. Buy gold, short bonds, go long real stuff and get your polyester pants and vests back out. The lead time on this investment is about 2 years. The trend should last for at least 10 years. bye

(Sat Jan 31 1998 13:09 - ID#372344)
@ Old Gold....IMF Gold....Iraqi Weapons....Deja- vu All Over Again
Gee ...that was a loaded post, nice to see someone with their eye on the ball...Firstly, the potential IMF Gold sales, you are correct and I have agreed that Germany and other Euros have been against selling their
IMF Gold now, however,if these "things" get away from them, and
Gold shoots rapidly, "they" will have no alternative but to sell some
IMF, maybe even to themselves!, to try and stop Gold at all costs, you
see I believe that at point "confidence" in all Bankers and their
"paper". let's face it "they" are all in the same paper boat, US Germany France, etc....will begin to seriously be shaken in all paper, and the only
way to attempt to "stop" their bleeding would be to knock Gold
thru IMF sales, just like in the 70's...BUT I agree this will only delay the inevitable rise of Gold. I look for this to occur just before Gold crosses
thresholds of 400 and definetly 500.
The Iraq issue in my view is rather transparent, this is the same Iraq
back in the 80's that the US backed in a vicious 10 year war with
Iran, millions of casualties...Iraq managed to hold off Iran for the US
and look at how it has been "rewarded"...It's about OIL and who needs
it Japan, Europe, and more importantly the price of OIL in US$...I agree that one of Iraq's aim is to lift sanctions, but that in and of itself means that Iraq would re-establish itself as a power in the region, and thus a threat to
US$ price of OIL...As you know for years the US has wanted bases in Saudi Arabia, and the Arabs had always resisted, all of them,
so it was a masterful stroke to intice Hussein to invade Kuwait,
and come to the "rescue". As I posted previously, this US "protection"
o f Arabia etc... has proven costly indeed. But I would also look
for bombing campaingns here, like we saw last year to oust the US.
The price of OIL and the currency it is priced in is one of the keys to a substancial rise in the price of GOLD all of course JMHO....

El Nino
(Sat Jan 31 1998 13:24 - ID#217139)
a.j. Thanks for Nio. It's actually alt 0241 on my character set.
Bestobe. You are right. It's best to keep quiet here. In fact, I will go away as you suggest.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 13:41 - ID#7568)
Old Gold:

What would be your prescription in terms of a change in our policy towards Iraq or Iran or any of the other countries in the Middle East?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 13:41 - ID#31868)
Sittin back - definition, prepared and 150 yards to the hull of sailin outta here, bounce off the coast until I stop seeing fires and smoke. 10 miles out might as well be a million.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 13:53 - ID#31868)
Sorta like a tequilaconda!!!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 13:55 - ID#411149)
OLD GOLD- that is exactly Frank V. plan, or atleast the way I
interpert what he says. And I think that is as good as any-

My take is that we are in the very early phase of a new gold bull, but the going will he slow for awhile. My estimates for peak gold prices
$320 for the first half, $350 for the second half, $450 for 1999, and
$500-$600 for the year 2000. Volatility will be very high -- a trader's

I will take it!!

Tally Ho

Lan Man
(Sat Jan 31 1998 13:58 - ID#31766)
@From Princeton Economic Institute: A little History
World Capital Market Review - July 1996 -

Precious Metals:

Silver remains the big problem. While many call this the poor man's gold, it is more like the poor man's opium that creats visions of unrealistic grandeur. The silver/gold ratio still appears poised to make new highs or at least test the 100:1 level.


However, if silver penetrates the $4.29 level, then caution should be employed. Silver might yet decline under $3.50 during early 1997 before any hope of a bull market emerges. Gold, on the other hand, has resonable support at the $368 area followed by $341. We do not expect to see new lows in gold under ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.

( Looks as if PEI struck a big fat zero on both their gold AND silver predictions ) .

(Sat Jan 31 1998 13:58 - ID#31868)
I am locked in my own revolving cartoon. KV is in a league all his own. My mind is like mud stuck in oxen hooves compared to his.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Jan 31 1998 14:05 - ID#403159)
U.S.A , THE TITANIC / cherokee your wisdom is priceless
The populace and the masses believe this great country is so that we are
immune to any destruction and casualty to our economic system. Only a very slight minority believe we could face dire implications. Very few and far between I add. Precious metals will not be available to those waiting till the last shoe drops. Time is almost up. If the war does materialize our oil supply will be squeezed. Not only here but for most of the world at much higher prices. There will be no takers for paper assets at these levels and this is the very reason for buying low selling high. They ( paper assets ) will have a long way to fall. If B.C. is guilty of any wrong doing you can expect a fallout that will be straight down from here. If he starts a war the world will condemn this country due to B.C. troubles between his legs. Precious metals offer an opportunity of magnitude of monumental upside proportions. B.C. is might possibly go down as one of the worst presidents in history. Adding to his troubles this is a man with no military experience leading us into a world war. God help us.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 14:05 - ID#57232)
Do we have an objective in Iraq?
Avalon: Good question! Makes you wonder if we are just going to kick up some dust so that BC can say he is doing something. I don't think we will really be able to knock out all of his hardened bunkers, even if we know where they are. This approach of slapping Saddam's wrists also punishes the average Iraqi who is powerless to do anything -- especially since he/she knows US does not want Saddam overthrown. What we are doing is like the process of devoping antibiotic resistance -- every time we have an infection we do not give enough antibiotics -- so the organism becomes more virulent. This is the perfect breeding ground for international terrorism -- the only way Saddam can defend himself from us.

Who is going to stop Saddam this time if he lobs a few missles into Isrial? As I recall during the Kuwait war we had little trouble defeating his army, but alot of trouble finding all the missles -- even well after total control of the air. This time we have no ground troops to speak of -- so all of it must be done from the air.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 14:06 - ID#261157)
El Nino
Dont go away!
Sorry, I didnt mean it.
Stay tuned, listen smart guys here, protect your family and buy gold and mining stocks.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 14:08 - ID#402148)
Heavy Hitter
All readers please be aware that psotings by Heay Hitter have been a contrary indicator to their call, and there is speculation that this person is part of a hedge funds attempt to affect gold prices.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 14:15 - ID#57232)
Repost of Donald's post regarding Japan. Isn't anyone else worried?
All: Are Carl and I the only ones worried about this? I think it is worthwhile for all of you to read this if you have not. Japan is still in deep trouble, to the tune of supporting their existing banking system to the tune of $24 billion US/day. I don't think they have done anything to revamp these indebted banks, so do they keep this up forever?

Liquidity is drying up in SEAsia, so no goods Tsunami?

Also the commodity price index ( CRY0 ) is rising rapidly, faster than can be explained by the rising US dollar. Is this rise in the CRY0 due to a drop in trade from SEAsia???

(Sat Jan 31 1998 14:15 - ID#31868)
Yo, Mr. and Mrs. West, take 2 plus billion people that are buying gold and silver faster than you can count and what do you get? What does that tell you.

Buy gold and silver. Don't think about getting rich. Think about preserving what you have. If you end up with a little more, great.

The world is no longer thinking in terms of dollars. The propaganda machine and government know this.

Focus on the East. Forget economics and charts and everything else and focus on 2 plus billion people that just watched their paper become worthless.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Jan 31 1998 14:19 - ID#403159)
Who taught you how to spell loser.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 14:24 - ID#28585)
My earlier post re: BC is, of course, a parody of the Prez and his latest sexual foray. It is no more offensive than a Saturday Night Live skit ( and probably funnier ) . Anyway, I fully well expect that if BC were to molest young boys, somehow Americans ( with their current prioritization of economic success aboveall other concerns ) would spin the activity as some type of forgivable peccadillo.

For those who think a Prez can continue to operate effectively under the current cloud of scandal, then they are sorely mistaken. Everybody is mocking him ( rightfully so ) and I imagine his ability to command respect ( outside of America ) has dissipated significantly. Since I speak regularly to Canada, I know he is an absolute joke up North.

Of course, it is not merely a presidential is an American problem. Americans, themselves, command less respect in the rest of the world. As Asia and Latin America collapse, the people there ask themselves about the validity of maintaining the American-dominated status quo. The second and third world countries work their collective butts off for the past decade, all the while imagining they are making progress in the American-crafted capitalist economy, only to have speculator-opportunists like Soros come along and drive their currencies into the ground. Then, fearful that these collapsed economies will harm their own, the Americans and investment bank reps swoop in and drop loads of newly printed IMF funnny money on their heads ( as though these countries were beggars sitting in the world streets ) ; proceed to dicate to them onerous terms of repayment; expect praise and thanks for the alms provided; then go quietly into the night, smug in imagining themselves as the John Waynes of the world.

Well, John Wayne is dead...died a long time ago.

Americans cite corruption ( e.g. Suharto family in Indonesia ) as the obstacle preventing these countries from obtaining American-style prosperity. That is true to a certain extent. However, it does not alter the resentment the average hard-working Asian feels to have all his earnings power transformed to sh_t overnight. From their perspective, the Suhartos do not keep them down...the Americans do.

Therefore, if Americans really want to help these people ( as opposed to themselves ) , they should not deal with their corrupt leaders who merely siphon aid monies into their pockets. They should have insisted Suharto step down years ago ( same thing with Hussein in Iraq ) before those countries would receive a single dime of U.S. aid. That America did not do so is simply because corporate America deemed that it was not in its self interests to do so. Unfortunately, the perpetuation of the oil oligopolies in this country remains one of the most negative factors affecting America's ability to make sound judgements on the international scene.

In the end analysis, Americans should expect the people in Asia and Latin America to do a slow boil...much as the Germans did after WWI, working under the onerous conditions and reparations thrust upon them by the victorious Allies.

The net result: expect another Pearl Harbor scenario as these various countries lash out ( possibly on a united basis ) at the American tyranny
of oppression.

Yes, BC has made America more prosperous than ever...and more despised, derided, and mocked amongst the community of nations than in all of 20th century history!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 14:24 - ID#335190)
ravenfire @ 11:01
Thanks for the great site, regarding the economic situation in Asia.
Information over load, but gems of information, can be extracted.

Thanks, Take Care.

El Nino
(Sat Jan 31 1998 14:38 - ID#217139)
Thanks a lot. I'll do that.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 14:43 - ID#185199)
gold meeting
Has anyone heard about the CB and gold company Ceo's meeting in Europe this weekend?---purpose is to stabilize the market.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 14:53 - ID#93232)
I enjoy your parodies, poetry and commentary...I just feel some verbal brakes ( profanity restraint ) should be applied in a public forum. Just as if you were in a town hall, trying to prove a point to your fellow citizens. I also realize times have changed...and a "little cussin'" can be entertaining. Believe me, my "cussin'" brake pads are about worn out...cause I do it more than most. Regardless, you do offer good points for thought.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:03 - ID#31868)
STUDIO_R - farfel
Don't worry, when you come outside of the hall you will see it is painted and so is the wagon. Nice color huh!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:06 - ID#31868)
if you care
Kelly's Heros - on TNT - goin after 14,000 bars of gold, I love this movie.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:08 - ID#57232)
Cherokee - I agree with you -- collapse could occur suddenly
All: I have the 1997 Annual economic predictions from the Economist, a supposedly premier economic resource, released at the end of 1996. Nothing was said about trouble in SEAsia. Also - did you remember how quickly things went from great to sour in that part of the world? My point is that this kind of collapse can happen quickly, to the surprise of all those expert economists.

I, like many Kitcoites am invested in gold stocks, oil stocks and defense, etc stocks -- but I have one eye on the lookout for anything that might give me a clue when it is time to 'duck'.

In physics there is something called critical opalescence when a phase change occurs. When you boil water, you see little bubbles and convective cells ( little regions of rising hot liquid ) just before the heated water becomes turbulent and boils vigorously. All you need to see this is put a metal pan on the stove, and boil some water.

I sure would like to know the visible signs -- if there are any ( besides increased volatility ) -- of a phase change in the markets. Regardless, I think we should be very alert for the next few years -- as the unexpected is coming our way!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:10 - ID#28585)
JTF...can't you see the bubbles yet?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:15 - ID#34849)
Mining Stock education
Have any of you heard about The Mining Investment College? It appears to be a great way to learn how to invest in mining stocks. I would like to talk with if you know about them.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:28 - ID#22956)
@Donald Sutherland....Clint Eastwood .......Don Rickels.....(definite classic)...
Get the GOLD!! Then GET CAMDESSUS!!!!!! Then, of course, a shot-o-tequila on Tol#1.....gulp, gulp, gulp.... ( mmmmmm ) ... the tanks w/ *loud* music


ted, VERY BIG game I feel uneazzy about. Michael is in La, La..... ( ugh ) ........go ShaQ.... ( yea! ) .......Nick..... ( nuthin but net ) ......Kobe..... ( cross hand...SCORE! Little Michael ) .....yes!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:29 - ID#238295)
Middle East
DA: You would never know it from reading the US press, but our Middle Eastern policy is opposed by the vast bulk of the world's peoples and nations. Its primary gold is to keep the nations of that region weak and divided to make domination easier.

A better policy would involve allowing the nations of the region to determine their own solutions to their own problems. A more even handed policy towards Israel and the Palestinian as advocated by the EU, the vast majority of nations and many in Israel itself.

Bottom line -- start treating the muslim peoples in the area as human beings and not "wogs" as the British used to do. Such a policy probably would trigger somewhat higher oil prices, but that would be a small price to pay for a major reduction of tensions and hatreds in the region as well as lessening support for fundamentalism.

I fully realize that such a policy change has as much chance as a snowball in hell in today's political climate. Hence my pessimism on the future.

BTW. which was the first nation to use poison gas in the Middle East? Not Iraq, but the British in the 1920s when fighting tribesmen in what is now Iraq.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:30 - ID#42371)
@MoReGold Thanks for the Kaiser post- very interesting reading
Of course John is rather wise after the event. I don't think he called the crash of early 97 in bullion and exploration stocks. Though he was one the first to say this was going to get worse before better. I am glad to see he is long-term bullish.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:34 - ID#22956)'s GOLDen...
They get the good is an o-so-lightly colored *golden* tequila.....Gulp...... ( smooth ) ...... ( yum, yum ) ....good for the Tum...Puff, Puff.... ( a good smoke, cigars what have you ) .....aaaaahhh... ( away ) ...

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:34 - ID#57232)
What do they look like
farfel: I always enjoy your irreverant approach to the 'powers that be'. You and Haggis have made an entertining addition to the Kitco 'mix'.

Why don't you enlighten me, and tell me what those bubbles look like? A general sense of foreboding on my part is not particularly useful as an investment indicator.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:35 - ID#26793)
Commerzbank AG will reveal Asian losses Monday

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:37 - ID#31868)
I know very little of or about the mining college. There are many more here that may be able to offer some thoughts, or perhaps other methods to help you seek what you are looking for.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:40 - ID#31868)
Arturo Fuente, 7 ring, an excellent smoke senior.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:41 - ID#22956)
one more thing...
John Wayne LIVES!!....ask Haggissss...
away... to find the Duke

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:42 - ID#57232)
If Japan goes, US could be seriously affected
Interesting post on SEAsia: Wall Street Journal, Jan 5, 1998. Can the US weather the Storm? I think that this has been posted before, but it is worth a repeat.

Please note comments by Rudiger Dornbusch, the MIT economist. His name always seems to come up when serious financial turmoil surfaces.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:43 - ID#26793)
Your comment about the Economist magazine and its failure to foresee the Asian problems in late 1996 is instructive. Everyone has been looking a the economy, production output, sales, employment, factory utilization etc. The Asian crisis and what is spreading around the world is a financial crisis. The focus should be on things such as debt levels, equity, liquidity, repayments etc. Those things are not as easily found because the parties involved try to hide them. The recent scandal in Japan with the MOF being the latest example. Debt termites have eaten the houses of finance from the inside and the decay is not readily visible from the outside.

The Hatt
(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:46 - ID#294232)
Dow Jones Halts Trading After Plummeting More Than 1000 Points!
A liquidity squeeze shocked analysts today as sell order after sell order completely offset buying. The market opened three hundred points down and was halted 15 minutes into trading. The s&p futures opened just above limit down and it to went into a freefall. We are getting reports tonight that Mutual Fund Offices simply could not handle the call volumes while investors sat on the phone and watched the meltdown take place! Tonight we report that investors are camping outside of mutual fund offices till morning in order to cash out first thing! Analysts are shocked by the sudden lack of buying and are maintaining a long term hold strategy! In the meantime Gold skyrocketed to $425.00 an ounce as investors began looking for a means of capital preservation!
CNBC reports this morning that Alan Greenspan has tendered his resignation and further reports are that Rubin is expected to the same! With only fifteen minutes until market opens CNBC reports that a FULL BLOWN CRISIS is in the works and it appears that the Dow will have trouble opening as sell orders are beginning to take the form of get me out at any costs.
Many will laugh at this prediction and that is their right, the contrarians will understand and that is their right! The PONZI GAME IS ABOUT TO END!!!!!!!!!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:47 - ID#28585)
Likewise, I get a kick out of many of your posts.


Bubble 1 ) Political scandal undermines faith in financial markets.
Bubble 2 ) Dow fails to rise over 8000 despite repeated attempts with share price movements extremely volatile along with heavy volume.
Bubble 3 ) Gold price rises with both rising and falling Dow.
Bubble 4 ) War unexpectedly broadens from Iraq to other Mid-East nations.
Bubble 5 ) Sharp, unexpected spike in interest rates as military competes with private sector for funds.

There are many more...but I am sure you can extrapolate from the preceding bubbles to others in view and forming.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:48 - ID#31868)
America's favorite movie?
Gone With The Wind - how fitting for what is coming economically. You want a bubble aspect of a boiling pot, layoff reports, we ain't seen nothing yet!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:51 - ID#287223)
Nick, Sharefin, or anyone: Why would Vengold go up 3% on Toronto exchange and down 3% on Nasdaq ( Friday ) ? what POG would Vengold collapse?....opinions?

The Hatt
(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:56 - ID#294232)
Dines At Vancouver Conference!
Dines today warned Canadians that the Canadian Dollar is in dire risk of a full blown crisis and that their only alternative to preserving capital is to buy gold and gold related stocks. The problem with the Canadian Currency is that the Canadian Government saw fit to sell its gold and therefore has no backing. The Aussies are in the same boat! Dines is getting more forceful in his predictions that the paper fiat is about to collapse. He also believes that the EU will be backed by gold and that other leading Countries will follow! The sentiment on Gold is turning and I truly believe that Gold is about to soar to levels never before seen!
Just one mans opinion!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:56 - ID#287223)
re your Jan 19 @ 00:27
CYCLIST: in above you stated that gold would have a seasonal bottom Feb make a top March cycle bottom April 20. Are you still of that opinion?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:57 - ID#26793)
New Japanese Finance Minister says he will not permit any banks to fail

(Sat Jan 31 1998 15:58 - ID#28585)
Bubble 1 ) Titanic is the most successful film in the world.
Bubble 2 ) Winter Olympics repeatedly exhorts world to "go for the gold."
Bubble 3 ) Seinfield...Most popular TV show in America ends.
Bubble 4 ) El Nino weather patterns create radical shifts, leaving Americans unsure of their environment.
Bubble 5 ) Denver Broncos win over Green Bay Packers.

Incidentally, JTF, you should trust your instincts. The fact you are feeling so uneasy is yet another bubble rising.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 16:01 - ID#287223)
HAGGIS: Aye, what junior could you give your strongest recommendation? Thankee

(Sat Jan 31 1998 16:02 - ID#26793)
@Tolerant1: 10,000 layoffs right here

(Sat Jan 31 1998 16:04 - ID#42371)
@ The Hatt =?The Peutz (corrected copy)
Many of us on this forum have long awaited this scenario, but we are beginning to doubt our sages and oracles ( eg peutz ) who have for a long time been telling of "the crash" that will start monday- and those who followed have nothing to show for it but time expired puts. ( ask LGB ) .

Truly it is a ponzi scheme- from which brokers, securites lawyers and CEO's their stock options pumped to rediculous proportions are cashing in on.

The average Japanese has learnt that the stcok market is NOT the place to put your hard earned money, the average US citizen has been convinced by Rubin, Greenspan et al that you would have to be a fool NOT TO.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 16:10 - ID#31868)
Davidson/Mogg say there is a flash point of disaster in Europe once the unemployment hits a certain number. I wonder what they figure it will be here in the US after all these people have been fed ( no pun intended ) the crap they have for so long.

No wonder Clinton has such a high approval rating. This s___CK called Asia a glitch and the American people agreed.

This will not be pretty when it hits.

Anyone who thinks the problems in Asia can be contained by throwing worthless paper into the hopper is nuts.


The Hatt
(Sat Jan 31 1998 16:13 - ID#294232)
Vertigo timing is not as important as getting on thr right side of the trend!!!!!!
No matter what happens the market meltdown will take all paper holders by surprise so whats the point trying to time it! Our obvious belief in the eventual failure of the paper fiat and the resurrection of Gold to its rightful place in my opinion puts us on the right side of the trend. Patience will reward us all. For the futures players their idea of timing takes on a different meaning and it is my opinion that their outlook is limited to their expiration dates on their calls or puts!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 16:16 - ID#26793)
You said, "Debt falls out of favor when people believe that inflation is coming." Indeed that is true. However it is equally true that debt falls out of favor when people believe that repayment is in doubt. Deflation is likely to sharpen the minds of debt holders in that direction.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 16:19 - ID#26793)
@Tolerant 1
In my termites in the Houses of Finance analogy you have to think of the IMF as nothing more than aluminum siding salesmen. The rot will still be there but the place looks great from a distance.

The Hatt
(Sat Jan 31 1998 16:19 - ID#294232)
IMF Funding is in Jeopardy??????
Anyone want to take a stab at what the outcome will be if the proposals for further funding fail.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 16:36 - ID#344308)

the hatt-----

i told ted to get out of the way of the c$ many weeks ago, cause
it was going down at least another 30%......

time to re-vise that........probably more along 70%......

........i've railed for at least the last 8 months
that the mexican and canadian economies were in DIRE
STRAITS!!!!!! all i got was that i was/am xenophobic and un-informed,
as to the REAL STATE OF AFFAIRS IN CANADA!!!!!!!!!!!

well.........where is oh mighty canada now? standing in front of mexico
on the gang-plank of financial kitco......the archives.........the smoke-signals about mexico AND canada have been
blowing in the wind for well-nigh upon a year..........

do not fret fellow canadian's......i speak of policies, not the people.......the us will collapse shortly behind canada's & mexico's......we are all in deep sh!t.......


and it is.........the paper shuffling is over.......the soiled kitty-litter can no longer cover the stench of a century of
the likes of rockefeller's, morgan's, soros, kennedy's, klinton's,
cb's, fed, imf, nwo.........
and many more we know not of........

don't think for a second that gold is going to SLOWLY meander
higher in price........

physics dictates another scenario......look at the monthly chart for gold

this huge sell-off in the last year MANDATES a huge up-ward spike at
least equal to, or greater than the previous action.... ( selling )

there are some major explosive moves quite close......

whether it be from a war, currency crisis, ufo confirming ziva is et..!; )
the catalyst matters not........that there just so happens to be so MANY
strong catalysts converging at the same time, GUARANTEES a huge rally....
and much more........

do not mess with mother nature------physics---------

'for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction'--isaac newton

look at the weekly and monthly gold charts sir isaac's
law of physics........continue doing this several times.....

what do your eyes tell you?......NOBODY better be in the way of gold
when she goes!!! it will make krakatowa----the volcanic eruption heard
round the world----sound like a gentle breeze in the piney-wood-trees
of e texas...........a whisper........against the hurricaine's roar.....


(Sat Jan 31 1998 16:37 - ID#431263)
Savage--Vengold is better known in Canada than US, so usually trades at a discount to VEN.T. It's also a proxy for LIHIR in Papua New Guinea ( LHR ) on Aussie exhange. Lihir trades as an ADR here in the US on Nasdaq ( LIHRY ) and usually trades at a 20-30% discount to the ADR which is the equivalent of 20 Aussie shares. Check out vengold's website at to see what a steal this stock is here in the US! Each Vengold share is nearly the euqivalent of one Ausiie Lihir share and trades at a discount to the Aussie share price. Perhaps another reason for the discount is the currency risk of the Aussie and Canadian dollar at present, but I believe it's because US gold investors still think of Vengold as the old Venezuelan Goldfields and its swan song a few years ago when all it had going for it was a bunch of land around the LAS CRISTINAS mine in Venezuela which never panned out the way it was hyped. The NEW VENGOLD is a much more exciting company with a 10.3% share of the LIHIR mine and now owns not only the properties in Venezuela but some exciting properties in Indonesia! This company is patiently waiting for the opportunbity to become the sole proprietor at Lihir and given mangement's success to date in increasing its stake, I believe it will happen! When it does, I predict that Vengold will become one of the premier gold mining stocks in the WORLD with enough proven and probable reserves safely proved up on this isolated S. Pacific island to last us lucky investors for the rest of our lives--all produced at $200-225 an oz. GOTT IM HIMMEL WHAT A DEAL!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 16:37 - ID#31868)
gulp, a shot of tequila at ya. My comment was not geared directly at you. And I think your analogy is an excellent one.

Forgive me, those three letters IMF ignite my tequiladrenal gland as I think of

Get Camdesuss!!!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 16:40 - ID#302251)
A NATION IN DENIAL ?............(revised edition)

Date: Fri Jan 30 1998 22:52
Lurker 777 ( Cherokee ) ID#317247:
Date: Fri Jan 30 1998 21:21

cherokee Re: anthrax

............ Anthrax is no joke and the public is not aware. ......
The Israeli Government see fit to issue gas masks to their population but
the U.S. is in denial. ...........


NO, we are not in denial, Lurker 777,
This is a clear plan to exterminate 80% of humanity.
They decided that we just have too many people here,
and it is beginning to be hard to control us.


There are already underground cities
to house our Elite,
so there is nothing for you to worry about.
They will be OK for about 4 years
until things cool down on the surface.
It was all planned in advance.
One of these cities is next to Denver, Colorado,
and I read many references to it on the Internet.
Another few were built by the Arabs and the Russians.
Art Bell cynically joked about it often,
his 20 million listeners already know about it,
it is about time that you will know about it too..

AND...after 4 years,
they will get out of their tunnels..
smell the fresh air.........
stretch their arms.......
and guess what...........
They will print a new money again.

Whoooops.....NO !
They will not need to print money,
they will have all your GOLD.

Hard to believe ah?
Just as it was hard for you to believe that Anthrax is already here ?
Just as it was hard for you to believe that UFOs are real ?
Just as it was hard for you to believe in Remote Viewing ?
Just as it was hard for you to believe that Psychic Powers are real ?

Wake up America.
Why do you always believe only

.............And just like in the Titanic.........
We the Jews have already done it before
when we marched into the incinerators at Aushwits,
then, the Nazis forced a Jewish band to play music.

Thank you Madeline Albright,
you will sit very comfortably in your underground city
when all the rest of us are dead.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 16:49 - ID#24135)
Did it not post it ??
for polarbear
I think I posted some info on this on friday. I meant to.
I had my hands full though. The desert wind was very strong
and some dwarf kept biting me on my ankles.
I think I said I would take 50% over today's market. I had info
on siama and crown. Siama's cost are 110$/oz from memory
and Rangy is talking 11 mill oz reserves. I bought a little
crown for an interest. The report had Indiana Jones all over
it. Yeah - 70 mill $ to start bidding for 11 mill oz....
Cheeeeeap. 6.5$/oz ... with abx at ?? I forget - 140$$/oz.
and ryo at ?? 35$/oz.
And those high cost deposits are in the corrupt and
unstable and warlike NA area with a high possibility of
banking collapse plus alien abductions not to mention a
bunch of crazy iraqi dames running around with their
v........ full of anthrax ( lets hope they keep their
knees together, enshal'lah ) . Also the US has a crooked
sex maniac leader and his approval rating went UP when
his PEOPLE found this out. I think the African stuff
should go for a big PREMIUM.
New subject
People seem bemused that the Economist magazine did NOT
see the asian collapse coming. I have said several times
that this magazine is totally worthless except for the
last 4 pages. One reason these jerks missed it was they were
thinking about things like the coming revolution in RSA over
the PW botha trial. Buy the economist -tear out the last 4 pages-
check the book reviews and the obituary. then throw the magazine
away and read the Spectator - great jokes.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 16:49 - ID#31868)
yea hah!
Kelly and the boys got the gold. How sweet it is!!!!!

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 16:50 - ID#24135)
Did it not post it ??
for polarbear
I think I posted some info on this on friday. I meant to.
I had my hands full though. The desert wind was very strong
and some dwarf kept biting me on my ankles.
I think I said I would take 50% over today's market. I had info
on siama and crown. Siama's cost are 110$/oz from memory
and Rangy is talking 11 mill oz reserves. I bought a little
crown for an interest. The report had Indiana Jones all over
it. Yeah - 70 mill $ to start bidding for 11 mill oz....
Cheeeeeap. 6.5$/oz ... with abx at ?? I forget - 140$$/oz.
and ryo at ?? 35$/oz.
And those high cost deposits are in the corrupt and
unstable and warlike NA area with a high possibility of
banking collapse plus alien abductions not to mention a
bunch of crazy iraqi dames running around with their
v........ full of anthrax ( lets hope they keep their
knees together, enshal'lah ) . Also the US has a crooked
sex maniac leader and his approval rating went UP when
his PEOPLE found this out. I think the African stuff
should go for a big PREMIUM.
New subject
People seem bemused that the Economist magazine did NOT
see the asian collapse coming. I have said several times
that this magazine is totally worthless except for the
last 4 pages. One reason these jerks missed it was they were
thinking about things like the coming revolution in RSA over
the PW botha trial. Buy the economist -tear out the last 4 pages-
check the book reviews and the obituary. then throw the magazine
away and read the Spectator - great jokes.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 16:50 - ID#24135)
Did it not post it ??
for polarbear
I think I posted some info on this on friday. I meant to.
I had my hands full though. The desert wind was very strong
and some dwarf kept biting me on my ankles.
I think I said I would take 50% over today's market. I had info
on siama and crown. Siama's cost are 110$/oz from memory
and Rangy is talking 11 mill oz reserves. I bought a little
crown for an interest. The report had Indiana Jones all over
it. Yeah - 70 mill $ to start bidding for 11 mill oz....
Cheeeeeap. 6.5$/oz ... with abx at ?? I forget - 140$$/oz.
and ryo at ?? 35$/oz.
And those high cost deposits are in the corrupt and
unstable and warlike NA area with a high possibility of
banking collapse plus alien abductions not to mention a
bunch of crazy iraqi dames running around with their
v........ full of anthrax ( lets hope they keep their
knees together, enshal'lah ) . Also the US has a crooked
sex maniac leader and his approval rating went UP when
his PEOPLE found this out. I think the African stuff
should go for a big PREMIUM.
New subject
People seem bemused that the Economist magazine did NOT
see the asian collapse coming. I have said several times
that this magazine is totally worthless except for the
last 4 pages. One reason these jerks missed it was they were
thinking about things like the coming revolution in RSA over
the PW botha trial. Buy the economist -tear out the last 4 pages-
check the book reviews and the obituary. then throw the magazine
away and read the Spectator - great jokes.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 16:57 - ID#24135)
Polarbear and Rangy
for polarbear
I think I posted info on this on friday. I meant to.
I had my hands full though. The desert wind was very strong
and some dwarf kept biting me on my ankles.
I think I said I would take 50% over market. I had info
on siama and crown. Siama's cost are 110$/oz from memory
and Rangy is talking 11 mill oz reserves. I bought a little
crown for an interest. The report had Indiana Jones all over
it. Yeah - 70 mill $ to start bidding for 11 mill oz....
Cheeeeeap. 6.5$/oz ... with abx at ?? I forget - 140$$/oz.
and ryo at ?? 35$/oz.
And those high cost deposits are in the corrupt and
unstable and warlike NA area with a high possibility of
banking failures plus alien abductions not to mention a
bunch of crazy iraqi dames running around with their
v........ full of anthrax ( lets hope they keep their
knees together, enshal'lah ) . Also the US has a crooked
sex maniac leader and his approval rating went UP when
his PEOPLE found this out. I think the African stuff
should go for a big PREMIUM.
The general bemusement over the economist failure to
predict things is misdirected - they have never predicted
ANYTHING. Read the letters to the editor, the book review,
and the obituary. Save the last 4 pages - good data.
then throw the mag away and read the Spectator - great jokes.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 16:58 - ID#31868)
Disney mon` trust me it posted now
Let me know if you need medivac sent in for the dwarf/midget bites. Foul thing that little creature. But enough of the small talk. Having a good day where ever you have pitched your tent for the day.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 16:59 - ID#26793)
Thanks Bart, you are really too kind.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:04 - ID#31868)
John Disney_A
The trick is to get the dwarf/midget next to the mailbox the next time!!!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:04 - ID#57232)
Simmer stage -- perhaps?
farfel: I think you have it! We are at the simmer stage. And, it is not just SEAsia - it is many pots beginning to boil.

One example would be the explosive growth in newscoverage regarding Monicagate about a week ago, when it looked like BC was history. Even his former senior staff members were talking that way. Now, most of this has died down, but the underlying forces that created this 'feeding frenzy' are still building up. The newsworthiness of the bombshell was not lost on the news media, and the previously monolithic 'Liberal press' information filter now has big holes in it. The White House will have a hard time preverting the next 'press feeding frenzy'.

The other items that would damage investor confidence are still mostly at the simmer stage as well. One of my most practical friends is nearly 100% invested in the equity markets, as are most of my colleagues -- to my amazement. My voice is nearly a voice in the wilderness. But when the voices of doubt get louder, and people note that the markets are not going up any more -- ( this will take months ) -- we will approach a near boil.

I think what makes my 'attennae' tingle is that this year there are many simmering pots about to move into synchrony. We at Kitco see everything months too early, and must watch for signs in the actual markets and news media, so that we do not become victims to our own runaway prophesy. I have done this many times with equity stocks, only to find that I chose the right stocks, understood correctly what was about to happen, but the buyers and sellers were on a completely different wavelength - I was often months too early. What we need to do with our 'simmer' indicator -- or whatever we call it, is try to sense the actual response in the markets or news media, not the individual news reports of events.

John Disney__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:04 - ID#24135)
My Mailbox exploded
sorry - Im as bad as ziva - im going to bed

(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:08 - ID#26793)
From Davos: The gloom is so thick you can cut it with a knife. Note China.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:13 - ID#31868)
God bless Bart and USANADA !!!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:16 - ID#26793)
Russian Interest rates raised from 36% to 42% to defend rouble

(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:18 - ID#57232)
Your another BART Message!
Donald: I always wondered what Bart did with all the money he makes by offering us this place to post! I've been on that ( other ) BART many times, fortunately not the time that some of the plastic caught fire underneath the bay -- I don't think anyone died, but it must have been a scary experience. Ever thought about being in the BART under the Bay when an earthquake strikes?

By the way -- what do you think about your post yesterday about Japan only having 3 or 4 banks that foreign banks will loan to? Is this like our S&L crisis of a few years ago? Or -- it is much worse? 20 billion a day to keep 'dead' Japanes banks afloat is a pretty high cost -- any evidence that reforms are taking place? And -- now the new Finance whatever of Japan tells everyone that no more Japanese banks will go under? We've heard that before!

What I don't understand is that -- if the SEAsian countries are going through a liquidity crisis -- how can any goods be bought and sold? Is this the end of our expected SEAsian goods Tsunami? And why is the Cry0 going up -- inless it is linked to the SEAsian liquidity crisis?

Hope all is well with you -- did you see the Dines comment about crisis in the Canadian dollar?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:23 - ID#26793)
FLASH! Rumors of Korean gold loan default.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:28 - ID#194311)
Donald- at the end of that post it says Swiss and Dutch banks may be forced to buy HUNDREDS of tonnes of gold on the open market to cover CB gold loans...hence the rally may be short lived....does anyone have a clue as to the logic behind this statement.
If someone needs to buy hundreds of tonnes on the open market to cover gold loans ( I have good info this Unoin Bank of Switzerland ) why would the rally be short lived?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:32 - ID#255151)
Shuttle Landing

The Endeavor is landing now. Astronaut David Wolf is home.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:32 - ID#31868)
Donald_A RE:DAVOS with my comments
Economists ( the really smart idiots ) gathered ( somebody else paid for this ) at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting here are pessimistic about the future as they see a world facing ( when people are poor they don't need intelligent people like us to tell them what to do with their "money." ) multiple political and financial ( how can we divert the blame for that which is ours ) uncertainties.

Ah, yea. Gold and silver, real money nobody has to explain. End of story, gone good bye, outta here.

Oh and by the way, planning means a small group KILL the little people's ideas which can help humanity move forward.

Hey Jed, Yeah Emilio, ya know how folks can't get enough -----------------

or why purity leads to a sterile world

(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:35 - ID#57232)
Financial distress is hidden! Not in Economist 1996 prediction for 1997
Donald: Your 15:43 post clarifies one of my difficulties in seeing the warning signs of the economic/financial phase change ( simmering pot ) . You are absolutely right! For some reason, internal financial 'rot' is easier to hide than trouble with a stock or even with an economy. Banks seem to be very effective at being secretive, unfortunately, despite the fact that they must have financial reports. Perhaps they are better than most with the fine art of altering the books ( I ould use some more colorful terms for this ) . Standard economic indicators such as the ones offered by the BCI, or the ones officially reported by the FED, do not include a financial 'rot' indicator. No wonder I am going nuts sensing things are not right, but being unable to find an economic indicator that shows it.

Looks like we need a 'fear/panic' indictor, and a financial 'rot' indicator, as well as the other indicators that we are using. Unfortunately, I think most of our news about the financial 'rot' is very scanty -- much of it dug up by you!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:35 - ID#280222)
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD: Thank you!.............anyone else care to comment on this property?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:35 - ID#26793)
My take on Japan news and all the world problems is that there is no easy way out. We must reprice everything to market reality. The new Japan FM says "no banks will fail". That is the wrong attitude and policy. Failures must and will be acknowledged eventually. Deflation is the result of the repricing of wildly inflated asset values during the bubble. Our stock market is no different. Did you notice my post on the Dow/Gold Ratio for January? I think the Ratio is providing an important insight on price direction.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:36 - ID#194311)
Why oh why?
With all the rhetoric and bullsh!t flying about from economeisters about why this "crisis" has happened no of them seems to admit that IF the countries invloved had had gold backing they would not have suffered such a drastic loss of currency confidence.

Is this just too simple for them to contemplate, or are they just too simple to contemplate such a fundamental reality.

Their problems are not with countries themselves...everybody still believes Asia will be a prolific producer and dilligent payer in future, it is just that nobody trusts their paper promises, for now.


(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:38 - ID#194311)
JTF...I like it!
A financial rot indicator...topping out about NOW.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:42 - ID#57232)
OK - Gold Gurus!
Anyone: If that post by Donald actually turns out to be true - -that S Korea defaults on hundreds of tonnes of gold loans, how soon do they have to be paid back? Is this something that will push gold into the stratophere, ( 8000 tonnes of gold loans on the books ) or is this a more broadly bullish phenomenon?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:45 - ID#26793)
Wouldn't that be the ultimate irony! U.S. taxpayers pick up the tab for the IMF. The IMF gives the money to Korea to buy gold to repay what they borrowed. The Korean won goes up, the dollar goes down. I will not sell them mine. You should not sell them yours.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:49 - ID#31868)
Kiwi - Why oh Why?
Simple, when some of the trust fund babies and other so-called rich get thrown out of the 15th story window and the people cheer when their bodies hit the pavement, the madness leaves the crowd and they separate until some other idiot talks them into the same situation.

What, you think the commies were the first. This has been going on forever. Finally the people in the general populace wake up, there is death, but when you take some of the royalty, rich, some unsuspecting honest, lawyers, politicians, and crash their bodies into pulp people no longer have their collective pent up frustrations for their own stupidities and the next field is sown and life goes on.

Simple really.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:52 - ID#194311)
Korean Gold Loan defaults....
Actually it was only a matter of time, I recall a Neophyte post of reuters article back in August/Sept. quoting that Korean merchant banks had gone way out on a limb with their gold loan plays ( most probably sucked into the short arbitrage play ) .
What do we see now, not suprisingly, the little people in Korea lining up to hand over their gold after a Soros "advisory" visit ( 200 tonnes at last report ) and now the not so unexpexted KOREAN GOLD LOAN DEFAULT.

So what most of these merchant banks were shut could they ever repay their gold loan plays?

Pete T__A
(Sat Jan 31 1998 17:53 - ID#170184)
Ken Cayce..Looking for Junior Metals

Haven't heard from you in a while. With what looks like a bottom in gold, I was wondering if you have any Junior Base Metal companies that you have your eyes on. Any ideas will be well appreciated.



(Sat Jan 31 1998 18:00 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Thanks John, will try to find
this movie you mentioned.
Latest breaking news from my area:

Unknown Iragi woman was spotted in a local
bar, and she was wearing anti-gas mask and medical
rubber gloves. She asked for Mexican strawberries
and ZIMA drink... Local guys were exremely upset
and we had a night of violence. Underground Iragi Embassy
in Corunna, MI, was stormed by the angry crowd
of deerhunters and beerdrinkers. Police took
their side and gave everybody free handgun
purchase permit and permission to drink and drive...

Anti-gas mask was confiscated by authorities
and then given to our local firefighters as donation.
Who got Iragi woman and rubber gloves - nobody
knows yet, but our local hospital is on alert...

America waked up!

Gold is to go up next week!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 18:02 - ID#31868)
Some here say Aether, I prefer ether, the human desirables, anyway my good fellow:

METLF - Mettalica

IPJ - International Pursuit

TNX - Tan Range


For what its worth in my tequila opinion.

Hali Mai!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 18:02 - ID#26793)
Japanese banking problem analysis

(Sat Jan 31 1998 18:07 - ID#57232)
More thoughts about the S Korean gold loans
Kiwi: I wonder -- if you were a desperate South Korean banker type, and you did not get all the money you wanted from the IMF, would you pay off the gold loans, or would you pay off something else first? I would think -- given the psychological effect of the defaulted gold loans on other Central Banks all over the world -- that letting those gold loans default - or even warning about potential defaults - might get the desired response --- more money!

Unfortunately, that is like holding the rest of the world hostage, and just the way a financial shockwave might spread!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 18:08 - ID#26793)
Asian Meltdown likely to worsen, not improve.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 18:13 - ID#333131)
All, Great posts this afternoon!
JTF, I love your phase change metaphor. It captures the idea that there is a sudden discontinuity in behavior of a substance given a critically small change in input. Perhaps the metaphor applies to belief that loans will be repayed in the present circumstance. That is, credit worthiness varies and results in interest rate adjustments over a wide range under ordinary liquid conditions. But isn't their a point where instead of resulting in interest rate changes, credit concerns result in the disapearance of liquidity?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 18:15 - ID#335190)
Tolerant1 @ 17:49
Simple it is.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 18:20 - ID#26793)
Newmont, Freeport news. Scroll to mining section at bottom

(Sat Jan 31 1998 18:29 - ID#288399)
Question on hyperinflation
Help me anyone? If there is a situation where an extreme amount of money ( IMF/Japan MOF ) is pumped quickly onto a severely deflating economy ( quickly falling GDP in Japan/Korea/H.K. ) , if the liquidity is the least bit late ( and cannot prevent further economic contraction ) , doesn't one get a hyperinflation? a la Weimar Republic, baby? How can one tell if the liquidity infusion is "taking"? or if it's just igniting a worse conflagration?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 18:33 - ID#57232)
Phase change analogy and Loss of Market Liquidity -- going Home!
Carl: I am no fiancial guru -- let's see if I can get this right. In Southeast Aisa, financial liquidity is lost because foreign banks refuse to loan money to the local bank. They refused to loan the money ( simplifying ) because they have no guarantee they will be paid back -- the loans that are being requested are for financial concerns that are liquidity sinks -- they are unsound.

So -- lets take the liquid/gas analogy -- liquid markets/financial activity is analogous to the water phase -- the gas phase is the boiling of the water ( or loss of water ) -- analogous to the loss of financial liquidity. After the water has 'boiled' away, there is no market, and it is all over! What I think is important about this is not necessarily the analogy, but whether there are warning signs that the financial liquidity is waning.

I will need to think about this -- and perhaps others with more financial expertise can help us understand.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 18:38 - ID#26793)
In order for the type of hyperinflation that Germany experienced in the 20's you would have to have the currency actually printed and placed in the nands of the public.

What is happening in Japan now is electronic and being placed in the accounts of weak banks. It would begin to become inflationary if those banks loaned it to the public to spend.

In the U.S. during the 30's the Fed printed plenty of money in the same way. The banks were terrified to lend it, the public was terrified to borrow and there was no inflation until the 60's when those fears subsided. I think Japan is in an equal position right now.

If money destruction by loan defaults is greater than money creation by credit or printing then there will be no inflation, only deflation.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 18:40 - ID#194311)
Ulcers and disinformation....stress doesn't cause ulcers
sorry this is not really about gold but some may find it helpful if you are stressed out about a stomach ulcer as I was. Glaxo makes the majority of it profits from Zantamec ( spelling ) an antacid ulcer "treatment" soother. Over 10 years ago an Australian researcher found that stomach ulcers were caused by a spiral-type bacteria and could be treated with a simple anti-biotic dose in a period of 10-14 days. The large pharmaceutical companies have been trying desperately to keep the lid on this as it threatens their number one source of earnings.
More disturbing though is that generally, weakening of the stomach lining which makes it susceptible to attack by the ulcer bacteria is caused ANTI-INFLAMMATORIES.....another major product pushed by all big drug companies as a "cure-all". Get the picture, they sell you the problem, then they sell you the cure ( but the not the real cure, only a pill to take the pain away until you need another fix ) . If you have stomach ulcers, or even just indigestion, insist your doctor test you for this bacteria.

SmithKline, Glaxo May Merge
SmithKline, Glaxo May Merge
NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Britain's two leading drug companies
have announced they are in talks that could lead to the
formation of the world's largest pharmaceutical company, with
some $26.6 billion in combined annual revenues. SmithKline
Beecham and Glaxo Wellcome waited until after the U.S. stock
market closed to make the surprise announcement that they were
in merger talks that could create a pharmaceutical behemoth. The
news came just minutes after SmithKline said it had ended
similar talks, announced only 10 days earlier, with American
Home Products Corp., a leading U.S. drug and consumer products

(Sat Jan 31 1998 18:40 - ID#31868)
"Such a lovely world was made for you and me."

Stevie Wonder

(Sat Jan 31 1998 18:48 - ID#401460)
Hyper-Infaltion Begins
A portion of the Article Donald Posted:

A Must Read

Raising the odds that the pain will get even worse, many Asian countries now face the demon of double-digit inflation. In an effort to keep financial institutions from going under, the central banks of Thailand, Indonesia, and
Malaysia over the past few months have engineered an explosive growth of money ( they're printing it ) and credit ( they're lending heavily to commercial banks ) . Ironically, this has not helped companies or even second-tier banks; because they are such high credit risks, virtually none of the money is being lent to them. Yet the alarming buildup in
the money supply means that the danger of further devaluations and eventual hyperinflation is rising sharply.

By one estimate, if the Indonesian rupiah falls to 15,000--which it did late in January--the entire Indonesian corporate sector will have negative equity. In these circumstances, naturally, nobody lends.

Will this happen in the US - not if we are at War. War hides a lot of problems.

Will Congress let the President declare War on the Muslim War?


(Sat Jan 31 1998 18:48 - ID#194311)
UBS derivative losses.......Korean gold loans I wonder?
UBS to announce derivatives losses of up to 450 mln dollars - FT
LONDON, Jan 30 ( AFP ) - Union Bank of Switzerland ( UBS ) intends
next week to announce that it has lost up to 650 million Swiss
francs ( 449 million dollars ) on equity derivatives last year, the
Financial Times reported on Friday.
This would be more than three times the figure previously
mentioned, the London-based business daily said.
The disclosure was intended to coincide with a meeting next
Tuesday at which shareholders vote on UBS's merger with Swiss Bank
Corporation to create the world's second largest bank, the FT said.
However, it could now be made as early as Friday, the newspaper
SBC may also spell out at its own meeting on Wednesday its
potential exposure to volatile Asian markets, the FT said.
Including loans and trade finance, the amount SBC believes to be
at risk in Asia could be as much as 900 miilion Swiss francs, the
business daily said.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 18:52 - ID#194311)
Indonesia currency defaults.
Moody's warns of Indonesian default on billions in foreign debt

JAKARTA, Jan 31 ( AFP ) - Indonesia's debt-ridden private sector
could default on its staggering 65 to 75 billion dollars in foreign
debt, international ratings agency Moody's warned in a statement
received here Saturday.
"There continues to be a risk that the Indonesian government
could impose a general moratorium on the payment of private sector
debt," the US-based agency said, adding some companies had stopped
repayments altogether, while others had offered rupiah in place of
"Moody's believes that there is a significantly greater risk
that Indonesian private sector companies could default on their
foreign currency obligations."
The agency estimated the total foreign debt of the non-bank
Indonesian private sector at between 65 and 75 billion dollars, a
large proportion of which is in short-term bank borrowings.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 18:53 - ID#348286)
kiwi: Most ulcers are curable with special antiboitics. My fathers life was saved with this treatment. I heard that @ 30% of doctors don't even know this cure exists !!!!!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 18:56 - ID#26669)
Cherokee. I promise my last post about Anthrax! :-)
Admittedly this thread has little to do about gold except for the fact that psychological factors are in the long run important to the fundamentals of its trade. One could easily imagine world demand doubling or halving with just a tiny change in people's sensation of security. IMHO

One can never know about the details of where somebody like the writer of your defense manual gets their information. To me the errors in the conversion tables jumped out, particularly the tenfold error of grams versus milligrams. And the toxicicity of streptomycin compounds is well known even among farmers. ( Plus the fact that some years ago I had a personal run in with gentamycin, one of streptomycin's gentler cousins. When I woke up from a surgery after a moderate dose of medication given by a trained surgeon my ears still rang for 2 weeks. No telling what damage it did to the kidneys. No grinding up pills and guessing, just the natural effect of a very poisonous antibiotic. )

But it was an interesting link and gave pause to think. Suppose indeed Iraq did manage to spread such poisons and bacteria here. They'd necessarily have to concentrate on the cities and big public assemblies.
Now if you consider that the percentage of the various types of persons in US cities versus more rural areas you might find more rich/poor dichotomy, more liberalism and more inherited wealth in the cities and more of the Jeffersonian ideal in rural areas. Not absolutes, mind you, merely more concentrations of types. ( Which is why US military troops are much more likely to be from the south or midwest than from Nu Yawk and Nu Joysee. Not as an absolute, just as a relative matter. )

Plus, when you consider that anthrax and plague have been present in the US for hundreds of years and farmers learn how to deal with them ( or at least they did when I was learning about cattle at my grandfather's knee ) you might suppose a relative resistance to such attacks in the farm belt. Which also happens to be the Bible belt.

So the Iraquis would be killing off the very persons least likely to retaliate, more likely to capitualte and more amenable to either enslavement or bribery. One could very easily see that an attack killing the urban half for instance of the population, would produce a smaller nation, possessing all its nuclear and conventional weapons and with no conscience left, except for the biblical law of 'lex talionis'. Kind of a Darwinian selection of the fittest.

Such a move as trying a bacterological war against the US might not be just the end of Saddam, but of the entire Mid East.

All IMHO of course, merely the thoughts of a passing fool.


(Sat Jan 31 1998 18:57 - ID#194311)
Soros kills newborn Ruble..his mission confusion, panic, ruin fiat currencies.
Russia in precarious position: Soros

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 31 ( AFP ) - Russia is in a "precarious"
position because it has given too much power to dominant financial
shareholder groups, international financier George Soros said
"Russia is exposed. It is in a precarious position because the
international financial conditions have changed and the policy
response has been in the wrong direction," Soros told journalists at
the annual World Economic Forum.
"Russia was on the verge of making the transition from insider
dealing and robber capitalism to legitimate capitalism in respect of
property rights and public shareholders."
But the Russian government had changed policy direction, putting
power back in the hands of big financial groups to the detriment of
minority shareholders, he said.
"And that is now endangering the stability of the ruble and the
bond and stock markets as the prices reflect," said Soros, who is
also chairman of Soros Fund Management.
On Asia, Soros forecast a minimum 18-month period of recession
or depression. The effects of the regional crisis had not been fully
felt and there could be a number of aftershocks.
Internationally, he called for attention to be paid to both
deflationary and inflationary trends, warning that a "purely
mechanical reponse" could lead to a global depression.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 19:04 - ID#351224)
ulcers etc
Kiwi - Not wanting to be seen as spammer but have just helped publish a great book here in Oz which may help.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 19:07 - ID#401460)
Hyper- Inflation in the US?
Donald__A :

I have thought for a log time, after reading the Great Reckoning and other similar books, that one can draw the comparison between the 1930 crash of The US and the 1990 crash of Japan. One can then draw a comparison between Germany in 1930 and The US in 1990.

And further; The US deflation and the German hyperinflation of 1930, compared to Japan deflation The US hyperinflation of 1990?

1937 vs 1997 ?


(Sat Jan 31 1998 19:08 - ID#348286)
@SOROS - What is his opinion worth? IMHO nothing.
This guy was and is all over the map. Inflation / Deflation / Recession /
Depression or maybe Nothing ???? In any case, he will be RIGHT !!!!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 19:09 - ID#261157)
Gold miners gird for year or more oflow prices
Saturday, January 31, 1998

Vancouver Bureau The Financial Post

Gold mining companies are bracing for a lengthy slump in the price of bullion,senior officials at Placer Dome Inc. and Newmont Gold Co. told a mining conference here Friday.
"We may see a year to 18 months of depressed prices,'' said John Dow,
senior vice-president at Colorado-based Newmont, which is North America's
largest gold producer.
"If it doesn't happen, terrific, but that is what we are girding for,'' said Eliseo Gonzalez-Urien, chief executive at the exploration division ofVancouver-based Placer Dome. Earlier this week, Placer and Newmont both announced cuts aimed at coping with low gold prices, which recently plunged to an 18 1/2-year low of US$276.80 an ounce.Newmont will reduce its annual exploration budget by 28% this year to US$77 million.
The company also expects to announce a 10% reduction in its gold reserves when a study is completed in about three weeks. Dow said the new figure is based on estimates that gold prices will average US$350 an ounce this year, down from its previous US$400 estimate. Placer will take a US$247-million writedown in the fourth quarter, and reduce exploration spending by 21% to US$115 million. It expects its mineable reserves to be down 20% from last year because of low prices.
While they claim demand for physical gold remains strong, Dow and
Gonzalez-Urien said prices are being "artificially depressed'' by commodity funds and other hedge players that place massive bets that prices will remain low.
Prices are likely to be under pressure until the new European central bank decides in May how much of its reserves will be in gold.
"I can't disagree with that view,'' said Jeff Ralph, a bullion dealer with Royal Bank of Canada in Toronto.
While gold rose US10 to US$302.90 an ounce in New York on Friday, Ralph
doesn't foresee any quick rebound as inflation remains low and central bank sales remain what he called "a worry.''
Gold miners hope the European central bank will retain control of all bullion reserves held by member countries, once its own reserves have been set.
"This will be another chilling fact for the speculators who think there's a lot of gold coming to the market,'' said Gonzalez-Urien.
Meanwhile, both companies are focusing on high-grade, low-cost operations.
Newmont has budgeted US$12 million for exploration around its Yanacocha
gold mine in Peru. Yanacocha produced 1.1 million ounces last year at a cash cost of US$95 an ounce.
It is also readying its US$1.9-billion Batu Hijau gold-copper mine in Indonesia for startup in the fourth quarter of 1999.
On Friday, Newmont shares ( NGC/NYSE ) fell 3/16 to US$29 1/8, while Placer ( PDG/TSE ) closed down 70 to $19.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 19:10 - ID#333131)
Phase change anology: Take application of energy as credit
unworthiness, and interest rates as temperature. The continous application of heat results in a rise in temperature of a substance until just before a phase change when temperature stops rising even with the addition of more energy. Given this analogy we should look for interest rates to stop rising even in the face of decreased credit worthiness as a signal of an iminent phase change. Its kind of like the pause when creditors hold their breath, afraid that any jiggle will make their loans go puff. Kind of like Korea? Japan? Hong Kong?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 19:13 - ID#348286)
@Friday SILVER and GOLD
January 30, 1998

Silver prices jump after NYMEX reassurance

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Silver prices jumped Friday in heavy trade after reassurance by the New York Mercantile Exchange that there was no basis for allegations of manipulation in the silver markets, traders said.
 "I had a copy of the NYMEX statement in my hand and couldn't understand why ( March ) silver was down 3 or 4 cents on the open, but when the news hit the Reuters wire, the market turned on a dime, and silver was up 10 cents within 10 minutes," said Carlos Perez-Santalla, a COMEX floor trader with Hudson River Futures in New York.
 COMEX March silver was settled up 9.5 cents at $6.135 an ounce, after being up more than 30 cents intraday at a session high at $6.340, the highest intraday level in five weeks.
 Total COMEX silver volume was estimated at 48,000 lots, the highest one-day volume in more than two months.
 "It was a knee-jerk reaction," Refco New York economist James Steel said. "The NYMEX statement provided the market with some reassurance, even though it didn't change the fundamentals," he said.
 In the bullion market, spot silver ended quoted $6.22/24 an ounce, compared with the London silver fix Friday at $6.0475 and the New York close Thursday around $6.09/11.
 New York Mercantile Exchange president Patrick Thompson said there was "absolutely no basis" for the allegations the COMEX silver futures market was being manipulated as claimed in a class-action lawsuit filed in federal court in New York this week.
 "In a period of demand overseas, represented by London spot prices several cents above the exchange's current month prices, it would be extraordinary, and indeed a cause for concern, if stocks were not being withdrawn from the exchange registered silver depositaries to fulfill the demand represented by the higher price," he said.
 "Exchange position limits have been, and are being, complied with by all participants," Thompson said.
 "There is no concentration of positions, no exceptionally high open interest and our prices and warehouse stocks have been in line with the cash market prices and with fundamental supply and demand factors," Thompson said.
 COMEX warehouse silver inventories fell by nearly 50 percent in 1997 from more than 200 million ounces at the start of the year to a 12-year low around 103 million ounces earlier this week.
 Meanwhile, silver prices rose nearly 50 percent in the last half of 1997 to a nine-year high around $6.40 an ounce.
 On Tuesday, New York lawyers Lovell and Stewart filed suit in federal court in New York. alleging the silver market was being manipulated by Phibro Inc. and others, by removing silver inventories from the COMEX warehouse and shipping them to London in order to create the impression of a supply shortage and thereby force up silver prices.
 Meanwhile, COMEX April gold settled down 30 cents at $304.60 an ounce, after trading in a $307.40 to 302.00 range. Total estimated volume was 40,000 lots.
 "Gold was firmer early in the session, but a large hedge fund, that had been sitting on the sidelines recently, hit all the bullion dealers who had to lay it off on the ( COMEX ) floor, and then they hit the silver market near the close also," one senior New York bullion banker said.
 In the bullion market, spot gold ended quoted $302.20/70 an ounce, compared to the London Friday afternoon fix at $304.85 an ounce and the New York close Thursday at $302.60/10.
 Gold prices recovered to two-month highs this week, on heavy bullion bank and fund short covering, and the absence of European central bank sales, analysts said.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 19:15 - ID#348286)
@Camdessus Blues
January 31, 1998

U.S. Sen. Helms accuses IMF of more harm than good

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee accused the International Monetary Fund of doing "more harm than good", and said he would oppose the Clinton administration's request to boost the agency's funding.
 "I am not a fan of the IMF. I think it does more harm than good and I hope that the Congress will take a very good look at how much it's costing the American taxpayers," Jesse Helms, a North Carolina Republican, said on CNN's "Evans and Novak" program.
 Asked if he opposed the administration's request to sharply boost IMF funding, Helms said: "I am. Absolutely."
 The administration has asked Congress to approve about $18 billion of additional money for the IMF to replenish resources drained by multibillion-dollar bailouts for Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand.
 The administration, in urging members of Congress to support the funding request, has argued that U.S. economic and national security interests are at stake in Asia.
 But it is clear that the administration, weakened by the White House sex scandal, will face a difficult fight in Congress, where many lawmakers bitterly oppose any U.S. role in the bailouts.
 Asked if he believed U.S. national security was really at stake, Helms told CNN: "That's what they always say in every administration. Something they want for a give away."

(Sat Jan 31 1998 19:20 - ID#26793)
The U.S. had hyperinflation in the late 1700's. That experience was directly responsible for the requirement of gold and silver in the U.S. Constitution. The 1990's were not even close to that. It was just an "ordinary" credit inflation.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 19:25 - ID#285392)
Marie-- suggestion on Mining stocks and Gold
Pierre Lassonde the Chairman of Franco Nevada has written "The Gold Book". In my opinion this is the most comprehensive and understandable book on gold and mining stocks that I have ever come across.


The Gold Book ( The Complete Investment Guide to Precious Metals ) by Pierre Lassonde. From the Personal Finance Library of the Financial Times of Canada. Publisher- Penguin 1994.
Issn 1196-1600
Isbn 0-14-024748-3

(Sat Jan 31 1998 19:28 - ID#28585)
Acknowledging that the traditional wife role has failed to keep her husband interested, Hillary Clinton is reported to be ready to abdicate her role as first lady and become a full-fledged prostitute.

"I will do whatever is necessary to maintain my husband's inguinal verticality in my presence," HC is reported to have told friends. "If that means I must become a raunchy, sperm-sucking "ho," then so be it!"
she defiantly declared.

Sources say Hillary is considering a working position on the corner of 42nd St. & Eighth Avenue in New York City. She has enlisted Vernon Jordan's assistance in providing her a suitable, safe "John's list."

"Naturally, in keeping with my husband's agenda of maintaining a zero-inflation economy, I do not expect to charge more than the normal 50 bucks an hour for my oral talents," Hillary reportedly declared, "although I have little doubt that I could command a much greater fee. However, I will not exploit my fame which would only serve to raise the overall street rate and ultimately lead to inflation and a resultant stock market debacle."

"Once Bill realizes what a slut I have become, then I feel certain he will no longer wander into the arms of other sleazy women. Once his eyes stop wandering, then he will become more efficient and stable. I am doing this for Bill, our relationship, and of course, the country!"

(Sat Jan 31 1998 19:32 - ID#31868)
Once again, silly children yap, feel and speak, palms trying to touch psalms.

Stalin, Hitler, FDR, what is the difference, none. NONE. They were and are that which robs, steals, any and all of you, your emotions, greatness and that which is freedom.

How many times must you feed the pig, the hog, until you arrive at the slaughter. Kennedy - pigs in duration of bacon drying while the deals the father manufacutured kill the off-spring.

Use your brains you dim wits.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 19:33 - ID#285392)
D.A. Oldgold-war in the Middle East-History should help
After the first world war Germany was saddled with such heavy reparationts to Britian, France etc.that they chose to have a second world war to alleviate the burden. In stepped the United States and they initiated the Marshall plan which in effect lent Germany the money to rebuild itself. They have been our allies ever since. The U.S. had the foresight and the generosity to solve the problem then, why not now?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 19:44 - ID#335190)
YES @ I have been there (Helicobacter Pylori)= Ulcers

Spiral Bacteria in the Human Stomach: The Gastric

Andre Dubois, M.D., Ph.D.

During the past decade, Helicobacter pylori has become recognized as one of the most common human pathogens, colonizing the gastric mucosa of almost all persons exposed to poor hygienic conditions from childhood. It also is often found, albeit with a lower frequency, in groups of high socioeconomic status. H. pylori causes chronic active gastritis and is a major factor in the pathogenesis of duodenal ulcers and, to a lesser extent, gastric ulcers. In addition, the presence of this bacterium is now recognized as a risk factor for gastric adenocarcinoma and lymphoma.
Nevertheless, most infections appear without clinical consequences. In this second decade of intensive research, it is important to understand why H. pylori is sometimes a dangerous pathogen, and to determine how it can be eradicated in those at highest risk for severe disease.


Although H. pylori is sensitive to many antimicrobial drugs in vitro, it is difficult to eradicate from the stomach. This may be ascribed to antibiotic breakdown by gastric acid, clearance by gastric emptying, and the difficult-to-penetrate mucous layer in which the bacterium resides.
Resistance of H. pylori to specific antibiotics, especially metronidazole, is also frequent. Therefore, it is generally accepted that a combination of at least two, and possibly three, antimicrobial agents should be given for a minimum of 1 week.

The regimen found to be most effective is the administration of amoxicillin ( or tetracycline ) plus metronidazole and bismuth subsalicylate 2 to 4 times a day for 2 to 3 weeks ( 52 ) . The use of one antibiotic associated with an antisecretory agent, such as a histamine H2 receptor antagonist, has given disappointing results.

In contrast, the combination of a proton pump inhibitor ( H+-K+ ATPase antagonist ) with amoxicillin or acid-stable macrolides ( clarythromycin or roxithromycin ) appears more promising; a number of studies are being conducted to determine the optimal dose, duration, concomitant therapy, and cost-effectiveness of these compounds ( 53,54 ) .

Recently, it was shown that at least a 7-day course of any of these regimens is required to obtain a high ( 90% ) cure rate, but that continuing treatment for more than 10 days does not significantly improve its efficacy.

Finally, topical therapy for 1 h was recently tried with excellent results, albeit in only one center at this time ( 55 ) . This treatment involves a 2-day administration of a mucolytic agent to dissolve the mucous layer and of a proton pump inhibitor.

On the third day, a balloon is introduced into the second portion of the duodenum under fluoroscopic control, and a solution of pronase, amoxicillin, metronidazole, and bismuth subsalicylate is injected into the stomach, where it is left for 1 h. The presence of the duodenal balloon appears to prevent emptying of the antibiotics and the mucolytic agent, thus ensuring maximum efficacy of the therapy.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 19:47 - ID#401460)

We always have to be careful of trying to apply exact year comparisons, 1930 vs 1937 compared to 1990 vs 1999. It could be that inflation has begun in the US. We certainly are printing enough money.


(Sat Jan 31 1998 19:47 - ID#227238)
Snowbird: Your question is apt but the there is no similarity between the aftermath of WWII and now. The Tigers built their economies on borrowed money and now find that the world cannot consume all that they can produce. Loaning them more money, through the IMF, only shifts the problem from the banks, who made the loans, to the US - and other - taxpayers. The receiving countries are still in the same fix. The pressure to loan them more money is ONLY, ONLY an maneuver to extricate the fat assed bankers. Nothing else. The debtors are still in the same fix with the added disadvantage of having the IMF interfering in their internal affairs ....... but the fat assed bankers are home free. And that is all our leaders care about. It has nothing whatever to do with a lack of magnanimity. It only requires an understanding of who is made well and who isn't. ......... BTW, RR's contention that it will not cost the US taxpayer a cent is misleading folks. What we will get for our money is IMF paper - as I understand it. Backed by the full faith and credit of M. Camdessus. And nothing more.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 19:52 - ID#57232)
Heat Capacity? Yes -- there is a lag between credit available and loans generated. Chores beckon!
Carl: So -- temperature is the interest rate -- the numbers that attract investors to loan money. But attractive interest rates ( with expanding money supplies ) don't necessarily always attract lenders - there is a lag time between credit availability and the actual lending.

I think I see what you are getting at -- this is like the delay between the heat you apply to an object and the amount the temperature rises. And -- at a phase change ( shift in credit ( un ) worthiness ) the relationship is nonlinear -- delayed due to the heat ( credit ) absorbed by the object being heated. I see what you are getting at - interesting! By the way, did you know that FDR inflated the US dollar during the great depression ( partially by that sudden dollar devaluation when he raised the dollar price of gold ) . But -- the banks were so gun shy, they did not loan!

How about credit as the driving force ( heat input ) and loan generation rate ( total dollar value ) as the subequent temperature? Same idea -- easier for me at least to understand.

Now to last part of your post -- when the relation between credit available and loan genration rate shifts suddenly -- we are at the critical opalescence phase -- the time of danger! Brilliant!

Is there a way to get that kind of data on various countryies and plot interest rate ( potential credit availability ) against actual loan generation rate, and look for a sudden change in their relationship?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 19:53 - ID#344308)

found another seed......

the great depression.....been here's back again....

(Sat Jan 31 1998 19:56 - ID#344308)

here's one on oil......and gold......


(Sat Jan 31 1998 19:57 - ID#93232) ulcers were caused by bacteria, known as......
HELLISHBANKER bullion soup is the only known cure.

Eradicate the fat-assed blood-sucking banker bacteria!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 20:01 - ID#401460)
For Those Interested
The A & E Network series Biography This Week - Hillary Rdham Clinton, Still Standing By Her Man is showing now.
Right Wing put Monicas mouth on Clinton.

PS: She campaigned for Barry Goldwater - WOW! What a switch.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 20:03 - ID#344308)

here's a link to follow klinton's escapades.....and more......

posted yesterday........last time......this week.....

(Sat Jan 31 1998 20:04 - ID#31868)
While they bleed to death they argue suture.

I say my friend let them enjoy their smarts such as they might perceive them.

On the horizon you will see the golden conch and no apologies, none. To speak with a tongue to those who have no ears is a lifetime of nothingness.

The dumb remain the Kings and Queens of wooden puppets, caving in from within.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 20:08 - ID#57232)
Gold Soup? Do you need to stay within a few yards of a gold mine?
Studio_R: Expense taste I would say -- though enviable that one might be able to afford it! I read somewhere ( true ) that eating gold was an expensive fad of some SE Asians -- don't remember which country. Seriously, this was posted on Kitco. I suspect that those who had that expensive habit are now regretting that they did not put the gold somewhere else, so that they could buy food and shelter instead!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 20:09 - ID#57232)
G'Nite all!
Logging off.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 20:20 - ID#93232)
@JTF....Gold kills the blood sucking banker bacterium....
Take it as you will...or can. Gold is the oak stake ( truth ) for these maniacal money mongering draculas. Run 'em thru! Save your people!
I have some "Goldswager" liqueur that has real gold flakes floating in the can get it at the liquor's a good start...builds up your nerve to slay the slimeys.

Get the Blood Suckers!!!! Get Camdessus!!!!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 20:25 - ID#194311)
Rubin's "won't cost a dime"...
so why is asking the yankee taxpayers for money?

if it won't cost a dime he doesn't need any money, right?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 20:27 - ID#344308)


the message must never stop from its' appointed rounds.......for----

when the student is ready.......the teacher will appear!

there must always be that found me.....and ready
was an under-statement.....take the first step......

you can never hit a home run....unless you step-up to the plate......

knowledge is power...........share the power......some are ready.....


(Sat Jan 31 1998 20:35 - ID#45181)
"our" military
If the top brass sees no "external threat" until at least 2020, and troops are being quizzed about thir willingness to fire upon their fellow Americans, is anyone else a little nervous about what our one-million plus boys and girls in uniform are going to do to keep busy? Before you dismiss what I say as simple right wing ranting, see what an analyst from the Council On Foreign Relations has to say about the state of things.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 20:35 - ID#210253)

Could be I misunderstood, but I heard Robt Ruben mention the IMF has $40 billion in gold backing as collateral for borrowed funds. If this is so, there is no basis for argument of gold not being money. Nonetheless, IMF already has this much lent out.

Tyler Rose
(Sat Jan 31 1998 20:36 - ID#373164)
Any words of wisdom from Another recently?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 20:39 - ID#35767)
As I write I am listening to Bob and he is still bullish on stks. I posit with all the events that could make the mkt nervous is it possible that the weathering of same means another liquidity driven leg in the bubble. The spin is working in that direction. I think gold and silver will do well in this fibal explosion.

QUES TO ALL If stks have held up with what is going on what will make them go down. ONLY thing I can see is dollar plunge. Obviously, BC is being protected because of what problems for him would do to the dollar and the mkts. I believe the move to broadcasting BC popularity is really designed to save HIM to push MAI and more importantly THE IMF BAILOUT. THINK!!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 20:39 - ID#372344)
@ ABX,DRROY....If it sounds too good to be true, It usually is....
It is not my intention to dwell on this subject, I have had enough fun
debunking figures and FACTS the bedwetter er.. I mean the bedouin
keeps spewing, but after telling us again today to throw away most of the SA newspapers, and keep the entertainment pages, and his post last
night comparing Drooy with ABX, I feel I should take a bit of time
to debunk some more of his "facts". These are from his post:
1. ABX has 370 Mill Shares out agreed.
2. Drooy has 39 Mill Shares out ( in his dreams )
Drooy has 51 Mill Shares out, with Mill more options, and will need to issue Mill more for $ .
3.ABX has 51 Mill oz.reserves ( in his dreams )
4.ABX has a total 76 Mill oz of minable materials and as the price of Gold
moves up to 450 can easily double or tripple this.
5.Drooy has 110 Mill oz. ( in his dreams )
The estimates I read were at least half that...Let's just take the Buffels
deposit which is estimated to contain some 20 mill oz, everything I
read says at very best only 10 Mill can be mined and further it is
14,000 Feet DEEP no that's no mistake 14,000 Feet DEEP, Buffels
was indeed concerned at that depth obviouly with costs, refrigiration
etc...but more importantly with seismic activity at that depth which would make it impossible to mine. An analyst mentioned that all these 3
companies were meged to lessen investor risk...
There is no doubt that Drooy has millions of oz of Gold but at what cost?
If Gold begins to move this year to say 400 than like most other Gold
shares Drooy will do well and if it goes over 500 it will certainly do well. One other point, yes they have intalled security devices to stop the "theft" of Gold from their plants, but this may be and I underscore MAYBE a problem for many SA mines not now but in a few years again in A FEW YEARS , what with the current problem of large number of gangs robbing armoured vans carrying cash, there is talk of an electronic cash system to get around these gangs... BUT IF I say again IF in a few years things heat up down there, anything is possible... But as I say this scenario is a FEW YEARS away...I also wanted to mention that I don't intent to dwell on this issue for the time being, unless ther is some special news that comes to my attention with the right to defend myself if personally attacked....all of course JMHO...

(Sat Jan 31 1998 20:39 - ID#39845)
A big bloody hello

(Sat Jan 31 1998 20:40 - ID#31876)
One Ounce American Eagle Gold Coins....
I picked up my first 1998 purchase today. The mint date is "1998".
Let's keep the U.S. Mint working overtime!!!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 20:41 - ID#31868)
The NSA, do you American idiots realize you fund these sc_mb_ags.

Well then, do not complain when your daughter dies, or your wife drops dead.

It is your country you idiots!!

Cheese and Crackers, wake up you dummies.

NSA my ass.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 20:41 - ID#372344)

(Sat Jan 31 1998 20:46 - ID#93232)
The truth is now in your hand! Salud to you and your eagle!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 20:48 - ID#257148)
Hedgehog-- FYI--A good week to you too--
In Defence of Hedgehogs - Poem by Pam Ayres

(Sat Jan 31 1998 20:53 - ID#401460)
Tyler Rose re: Another

I am afraid he may be looking for a bomb shelter. I have not seen any post from him this week - it's about time isn't it?


(Sat Jan 31 1998 21:01 - ID#401460)

I really like that site:

The White House is establishing a new
office at the Democratic National
Committee to help coordinate damage
control for President Clinton in the
Monica Lewinsky controversy.

The operation will be paid for with
party dollars and will be headed by
Karen Hancox, a former White House
political aide, with the purpose of
sharing information among Clinton
supporters and rallying them to defend
Clinton publicly, according to White
House communications director Ann

Lewis said the operation will stay in
regular touch with "friends and
surrogates" of the administration and
"send people distilled information" that
they can use to counter the deluge of
negative publicity caused by
allegations that Clinton carried on an
18-month sexual relationship with the
24-year-old former intern, then urged
her to lie about it.
they can use to counter the deluge of
negative publicity caused by
allegations that Clinton carried on an
18-month sexual relationship with the
24-year-old former intern, then urged
her to lie about it.

You can tell by the celebrity comments and remarks by others, that the Prez's people have been on the phone and internet. His e-mail address list has to be awesome.

There are not to many people who can speak against the President - he has most of their FBI files.


(Sat Jan 31 1998 21:04 - ID#93232)
@cherOkee....we shall soon see..
The Glory of Gold. Get Gold!!!!

(Sat Jan 31 1998 21:08 - ID#31876)
The recent rise in silver is bringing those Morgans into the coin
shops. I didn't find any 1879 cc's, but there were many beautiful
slabbed Morgans at my favorite coin shop today. I tried to remember
their Red Book prices in 1981. When I remembered, I decided what
it will be for next month's purchases.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 21:13 - ID#398105)
Savage (reco)..................Junior Companies, in order of preference

1. Johnsons Well Mining
2. East Coast Minerals
3. Precious Metals Australia
4. Legend Mining NL
5. Tectonic Resources NL

(Sat Jan 31 1998 21:15 - ID#93232)
Sure looks like silver is going to $10 or so. The market realities are in place...the market says it's in short supply.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 21:16 - ID#31868)
Mr, Moneroe died a little while ago.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 21:20 - ID#93232)
Do you fondly refer to The King of Kentucky Monroe?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 21:20 - ID#267276)
Rubin, when asked how do we know that the IMF will be able to pay us back, stated that the IMF had $40 billion in Gold reserves and Summers soon called it the ultimate reserve. ( finally some respect )

(Sat Jan 31 1998 21:27 - ID#31868)
agh, hmm.
There is this white haired dirbag in the Great State Of Virginia. He owned the papers across the areas of much of the South.

This egotistical dirtbag and I have much to speak about. Ted Turner is one of his pimps. Until either of these bottom feeding scumfish admit that Mr. Monroe should have been treated better I feel that the both of them are the bacteria that lives on the end of Camdesuss's pecker, once removed from a dog wishing not to know either of them.

Mr. Bill Monroe deserved better than the limited space those bacteria who ran newspapers provided for him.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 21:28 - ID#335190)
THAI @ Gold collected from the people=BONDS
Financial Section January 30, 1998

'Gold for Dollar' Bonds Will be Issued Soon
Business Day Welcomes your opinions or suggestions.

THE Finance Ministry's special committee on the issuance of bonds for borrowing gold from the general public yesterday resolved that the Government Savings Bank ( GSB ) issue the bonds in exchange for 100 tonnes of gold worth about 50 billion baht, according to Deputy Finance Minister Pichet Phanvichartkul.

He said GSB would collect the gold and issue the bonds with a maturity of 3-5 years. Concerned parties would meet again next week to decide on an interest rate for the bonds. The laws governing the GSB would be also amended in order to uphold the bond issue.

After the preparations, the bonds were expected to be issued three months from now, he said.

Pichet said the gold collected from the people would be smelted and sold overseas to raise US dollars to boost the country's official foreign reserve.

However, he said, the panel would have to further study whether the Government would repay bond holders in gold or cash at the redemption of the bonds.

Chitti Tangchitpakdee, a representative of the gold traders participating in the bond program, said the panel had not reached a conclusion on what to do with the gold after the bond issue.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 21:28 - ID#401460)
Gangsters Desciples Invade Fort Knox"

Gangsters Disciples Invade Fort Knox Kentucky A&E Network

Criminals in the military, the military is waiving criminal records - burglary robbery etc.
Kentucky was once the safest place in the country until the Army Recruiting Division/Office moved into Fort Knox, the GANGS followed. Relatives and friends of the military followed them to Fort Knox

They are now into Politics.

Are we sure the Gold is still there?

Saddam look out, we have some real "BAD" soldiers.


(Sat Jan 31 1998 21:33 - ID#93232)
Pray tell me sir, and what unholy name may I call this white haired scum bar rag seller? And what did he say of the greatest of the blue grassers....the monarch of the mandolin.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 21:40 - ID#42365)
well damn we all know these guys are scum, and in essence evil. plain and simple. but what are us idealistic americans sposed to do? huh? overthrow the government and make things worse? no. its about education i believe, but the media is controlled. so where is the forum for education? I believe we are using it right now, but theres one problem most americans have blown their brains out with government drugs LET into the country, so they are to stoopid to navigate and learn about computers, and whoa the internet, but eventually whens all americans are on the highway and stuff.. i think the net will be eventually "controlled" to an extent. bahhh fu*k it.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 21:46 - ID#31868)
Dimwit...Mr. Bill Monroe, Mr. KY Mandolin, none better in this universe. None on any dream wherin an individual looked upon the Blue Moon of theirtucky!

Prepare the wolves, I need to tend to the sheep.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 21:48 - ID#257148)
Yee Haa
Blue Moon of Kentucky, and twin fiddles & his mandolin, lads, I'm in heaven..

(Sat Jan 31 1998 21:51 - ID#93232)
Who owned the papers?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 21:51 - ID#252207)
IMF & Japanese Banks
Here are a few interesting articles in the New York Times. It seems some asians resent the IMF bailout, and believe it is part of a US plot. In the 1920's, I think these were called "Spheres of Influence".

Here a couple of articles on Japanese banks, and how the worst may be yet to come.

Here is a SHORT quote from one:

" Depositors' fears have grown since Hokkaido Takushoku Bank, a major commercial bank, collapsed last year. When brokerage giant Yamaichi Securities Co. followed, worries intensified. Failures of major corporations were previously virtually unheard of in Japan.

Japanese have reportedly been taking their savings out of banks in droves."

Makes you wonder if the withdrawls are being converted to gold, or some other paper asset.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 22:00 - ID#285392)
Earl, thank you for your reply
I would agree that my ending money to every nation is not in our best interests however this was not my intention. I was merely pointing out that in my opinion it is unlikely that we will ever win over the Arab world by bombing the hell out of them. I for one would like to see overatures of reconcilition made to Iran, Cuba, Iraq and others so that they do not feel the need to put plagues on us which will almost surely eventually happen, perhaps very shortly. We feel that Iraq is a threat due to biological weapons but we are not about to attack the Iranians and others who already have the A bomb or worse.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 22:02 - ID#398105)
Ziva..........boom and gloom.......

With respect, echos from your past.

I feel that you are suffering from the "Northern Hemisphere Blues".

Always focus, don't spread yourself too thinly - chose one issue and obsess about it.

Here is something for you to practice on :

(Sat Jan 31 1998 22:05 - ID#228128)
To all: Silverbaron kindly provided me some PAASF and silver data and I did some regression analysis to investigate whether or not the relationship between the variibles was linear or nonlinear. The results indicated that the relationship is indeed linear and therefore the projections posted by Silverbaron are accurate.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 22:09 - ID#170304)
Ziva post about underground shelters for elites

I live about 10 miles from Rocky's "retreat" so what you say is true as
I know people who have worked there...The only thing misleading about your fearful post is that "they" have had this retreat for at least thirty years...

(Sat Jan 31 1998 22:10 - ID#344206)
Bema Gold
Does anyone have any inside skinny on current happenings at Bema or it's juniors?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 22:10 - ID#372344)
@ Gold and Silver....
A few weeks ago I commented on the unsually high tonnage volume
traded in December in the LBMA here is an article which also raises
said issue and notes that Gold's $30 price movement this month is
noteworthy considering it's $0.20 moves prior, also it makes note of the fact that Gold lease rates have gone up to 2.03%, and of 2 meetings
this week-end in Europe about Gold.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 22:17 - ID#339212)
@ Yellow Jacket & 223 & John Disney

Yellow Jacket: A very great thank you for taking the time to respond to my question on silver tarnish. Your Jan 31, 02:04 post is greatly appreciated and thanks for the site.

223: Thank you too, helping me in this matter and providing the site in your post of Jan 31, 02:13.

John Disney: You must put some silver ornaments on your camel, dress her up with genuine silver camel jewelry, and at night take them off and polish them, that way you will stay out of sin with your young to be found girl in Musqat. I will not take your advise to hold and pet silver because I intend to spend my nights with my other half. Now if you do what Yellow Jacket or 223 suggest, you will have plenty of time to indulge in the pleasures of the flesh, instead of polishing the camel's silver.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 22:24 - ID#344308)

here is another, need to read, hype.... just facts....

(Sat Jan 31 1998 22:31 - ID#401460)
Cressy (Bema Gold)

I hope this will help.


(Sat Jan 31 1998 22:35 - ID#31868)

OH I will boy, I will....

(Sat Jan 31 1998 22:36 - ID#335190)
Thai @ Wages *1996*( Where did the "PEOPLE" Gold for BONDS *1998* come from?????)
Thailand-Labor: Thai Industry Can't Compete On Six Dollars A Day

by John Tanner Copyright 1996 Inter Press Service

November 20, 1996 BANGKOK Thai manufacturers, once the low cost producers of Asia, are themselves being undercut by even lower cost exporters in the region.

The minimum daily wage in Bangkok was increased this year to 157 baht ( $ 6.20 ) . That may be tiny compared with the United States' minimum of six dollars for only one hour, but is way above Indonesia's $ 2.25 a day or mainland China's one dollar a day.

It costs Thai Underwear $ 1.30 to produce a pair of men's briefs in Bangkok but Chinese factories are producing for as little as one dollar for 12 briefs. "This is an unbelievable price. I don't believe they include all the costs," says Shidei.

Manufacturers like Dej Pathanasethpong and Shoji Shidei must get used to competing with even lower cost producers, while for workers like Sumspon Srivachai and Jintana Yai-Bua there is no longer any security even at $6.20 a day.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 22:44 - ID#93232)
Mr. Monroe was more powerful than he that delivered wet newspapers.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 22:44 - ID#344308)

here is a free-ware site.....down-load netscape communicator for free....

and anything else needed.......

(Sat Jan 31 1998 23:07 - ID#227238)
T1, Studio R: Finally some recognition of decent music on the part of both of you. All that R&R jive is bad for the blood ( stirs it up, some ) and as yer finding out, Studio R, I ain't helpin' the liver none either. Much better to refine your listening habits and confine them to fiddle tunes from the two highest musical forms: Bluegrass and Mozart.

BTW, bear in mind that long ago and far back in kitco history, Strad agreed to perform his rendition of "The Orange Blossome Special" at the ultimate Kitco winners conference. Although at the time he was not familiar with the piece and I'm sure, by now, he has completely forgotten all about it. ...... Must dig up a good cut and send it to him. ...... Can classical guys play by ear? Or do they need the sheets?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 23:08 - ID#227238)
T1, Studio R: Finally some recognition of decent music on the part of both of you. All that R&R jive is bad for the blood ( stirs it up, some ) and as yer finding out, Studio R, I ain't helpin' the liver none either. Much better to refine your listening habits and confine them to fiddle tunes from the two highest musical forms: Bluegrass and Mozart.

BTW, bear in mind that long ago and far back in kitco history, Strad agreed to perform his rendition of "The Orange Blossom Special" at the ultimate Kitco winners conference. Although at the time he was not familiar with the piece and I'm sure, by now, he has completely forgotten all about it. ...... Must dig up a good cut and send it to him. ...... Can classical guys play by ear? Or do they need the sheets?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 23:11 - ID#227238)
Snowbird: That wasn't the way I understood your question but it's no matter. No one should ever pass the opportunity to rail against fat assed bankers. Lower than whale crap, they are. Slime in a silk suit.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 23:20 - ID#93232)
I'll be seeing ( and hearing ) Strad in March...a little musical rendevous. I'll take him a copy of Orange Blossom. Anxious to witness his ear and improvisational skill...I'm sure it's awesome. I get lost in the sheets.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 23:26 - ID#227238)
Studio R: Wonder how it will sound with a classical vibrato?? Helluva hoot. Eh?

(Sat Jan 31 1998 23:26 - ID#26669)
Notice to all right wingers!
Due to the recent discovery by Hillary, tonight's meeting of the Right Wing Conspiracy must be postponed. Please use your secret decoder rings to decript scheduling of the next scheduled meeting. ( Those without rings may read every third word of Ann Landers column in tomorrow's paper as usual. ) Please be prompt and remember to wash your robes.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 23:27 - ID#57232)
Your 20:35 I will read carefully
Oldman: Appreciate the post. I was thinking about what Old Soldier said and what you said. Old Soldier mentioned the 'oath of allegiance' clearly indicating that the role of the Military is to protect the citizens of the United States. What does that 'oath of allegiance' say now -- not Old Soldiers generation, but the 'under 30' one? If only 10% of our military wound up in an 'internal' civil defense force ready to obey a different oath of allegiance, that might be something highly significant.

I see one problem coming up, and that is the WMD. Our defense forces realize that the international terrorist threat is much more serious than it used to be -- so there is a legitimate argument in favor of having a well-organized, strong defense force internal to the US. Of course, that organization should still be sworn to 'protect the citizens of the United States' , but I think you get my drift.

Several processes are thus converging, all in favor of a strong internal milirary force within the confines of the United States. As I see it, we as Americans need to make sure that these individuals will live up to the same standards that Old Soldier and his compatriots lived up to -- namely to protect the American Citizen as the first priority. I think if the oath of allegiance has been corrupted, it is not internal to the US military, but external to it -- paraphrasing when Old Soldier said. It is his opinion that nothing has changed within the US military, and I hope for our sakes that this is true.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 23:28 - ID#227238)
223: Done. .... and returned to standby.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 23:30 - ID#26669)
:- )

(Sat Jan 31 1998 23:38 - ID#411233)
No doubt this has been mentioned here a thousand times, but I'll ask
again anyway. What caused gold to rally in late 95, early 96? As far as
I can remember the markets were doing quite well at the same time.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 23:40 - ID#57232)
Thank you for the posts on Japanese banks
Jupiter: I see three possible outcomes. One -- the continued weakening of Japan due to their failure to reform or cut loose non-performing banks. That outcome is doomed to failure with catatrophic results -- possibly all over the world.

Two -- the resignation of the two MOF bureaucrats portends real banking reform. If so, the Japanese banking stocks will continue to rally -- namely - because Japan's depression is ending.

Three -- Hashimoto is only partially successful with outcome two -- too little, too late.

What I don't know is whether Japan's musclebound financial/economic system can really reform itself without total destruction first. Will the threat of financial ruin be enough to break the back of the bureaucratic machine that is bringing Japan to its knees? It all boils down to whether Hashimoto has enough political clout to pull the reforms off, and whether the reforms envisioned will be sufficient.

I wonder, do we have any Japanese on this site that can explain what is really happening? Otherwise we cross our fingers, and wait a few months. I for one am not optimistic, but I sincerely hope I am wrong, because the outcome could then be depression for all.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 23:41 - ID#227238)
Guns or grub?
JTF: Militarily, we seem to be revisiting a position we have seen several times before in this century. What is new is the horse sized dollop of social modification added to the mix. If the military has no stomach for standing up to lacrimose Pat Schroeder and her cottery of cutey ____s , do they have the heuvos to provide solid guidance to the civilian side as to the real measure of our actual capabilities. Reading Oldman's link, it appears that the military is once again engaged in falsification of readiness reports and such. So much for the peace dividend. ... It'll be spent by graves registration.

Barb Hughes
(Sat Jan 31 1998 23:44 - ID#20783)
might be of interest to some ...goodnight

(Sat Jan 31 1998 23:45 - ID#266105)

Colour, which is the poet's wealth, is so expensive
that most take to mere outline sketches and become
men of science. HD Thoreau

Science is for those who learn; poetry for those who know.
Joseph Roux

There's no money in poetry, but then there's no poetry
in money either. Robert Graves

Thanks to Bart.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 23:48 - ID#31868)
Like stated, earlier, my function is to watch the bridge...

You have no gods, .........................I will not push the string

(Sat Jan 31 1998 23:50 - ID#57232)
Readiness of our military
EARL: I scanned part of what Oldman posted -- and it does seem that our military's usefullness is being undermined. We may need some sort of engagement ( or threat of engagement ) to rejuvenate it. The downsizing must not have been good for morale. Also -- I do remember stories about Israeli soldiers being compared to ours in relation to combat readiness. It was not particulary complementary.
What we need is a strong Chief of the Armed forces right now -- someone who can make an effective limited engagement type force out of what we have left.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 23:51 - ID#227238)
Absolute power and such.
JTF: Power structures do not EVER willingly reform themselves. EVER. Having been successfully tended, watered and fed for decades they cannot be changed from within. ....... That is why nature created collapses and dislocations. To be visited upon power structures periodically. It's healthy. ..... As Martha Stewart would say: "It's a good thing". But just like the military, apparently, there is no long term lesson ever derived therefrom. ...... Which, I guess, is why we have nature to look after us.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 23:53 - ID#252127)

Your 03:57; how about his seeking out "fat ass bankers", then I assume ratings can't exceed 100%.

(Sat Jan 31 1998 23:57 - ID#227238)
JTF: A strong military chief would be nice. I don't really know if we have one or not. ....... What will be much quicker and far more effective is a sizable number of females in body bags, issuing from our next adventure. Tangible evidence of political stupidity is required to focus the collective attention. For the moment it is but a grand social experiment.