Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

Richard Burke
(Mon Feb 02 1998 00:02 - ID#411318)
Preacher: Miramar is heavily involved in Argentina and to a lesser extent in Cuba through Northern Orion of which it owns 54%. They have some 30 projects in Argentina, but the Aqua Rica in which they own 30% has the best potential - 13.5 billion pounds of copper, 9.5 million ounces of gold and 850 million ounces of molybdenum. Their production in 1996 was all from the Con Mine ( 111,000 oz ) in Canada where production costs ran $336 US cash and $382 US total cost. The high cost is their achilles heel. As you say they have lots of cash ( $100 million + ) and no debt. However, they wrote off $30 million + last year when they closed down their Nevada operation. Production is expected to start in Cuba in early 1998 ( Miramar share 39,000 oz ) with production costs of less than $200 per oz. Miramar took a huge price hit last year because of its high costs. Once the price of gold gets up its stock should do well. Do any kitcoites have any thoughts on how well ( and the timing ) this stock might do?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 00:02 - ID#345268)
@ all
One must not be fooled with the rally of the Asian markets.

Except Japan, the major market there is S. Korea which is down. -4.96%

Without a rally in S. Korea and Japan, the rest is "noise".

(Mon Feb 02 1998 00:02 - ID#431263)
Hong Kong--UP 11%
Indonesia--UP 10.45%
Philippines--UP 10.15%
Singapore--UP 10.65%
Taiwan--UP 4%
Thailand--UP 11.42%


(Mon Feb 02 1998 00:03 - ID#227290)
C. Keeling & japan buying gold
I am most interested to know about Japan buying gold. This would be the best news possible. Do we have any hard evidence on this?

The Preacher

(Mon Feb 02 1998 00:07 - ID#227238)
JTF: I'm well aware of BC's popularity. It answers nothing and speaks only to the general public sentiment. At the same time I am unaware of any cosmic rule that prohibits the majority from being wrong.

BTW, the most useful rule to separate generally decent people from the rogues is their appeal to emotion.

A rogue will use emotional appeals at every opportunity and always to redirect potential negatives from ever falling in his lap. BC did it 92. It was successful then and it's even more useful today. It's dynamite with an undiscerning electorate and will continue to be so. Because of it, he will contimue to evade any public accounting for his actions. ..... Now watch Gore. He is a more hollow suit than BC but will never be as smoothly accomplished at the game as BC. ...... Recall the use of his sister's illness at the Demo convention??? Pretty crude. .... A successful strategy will be contimued. Until the electorate wakes up. Which is never.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 00:09 - ID#57232)
SEAsia surge
GoldenCheesehead: This must be the second phase of the SEAsian rally -- the pros like John Templeton have already placed their positions. Good for gold as Old Gold has said. I don't think Japan has suddenly fixed all of their banking problems, so I would guess that it will not last. And -- will China really refrain from devaluing? What about India?

Interesting, isn't it? Kitco news does not correlate with current market events. I have learned to be cautious about jumping right from Kitco news into the market -- Kitco always seems to be months ahead. If you are careful -- this can be very helpful.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 00:12 - ID#227238)
It will be interesting to see if the US runs counter to the Asian action tomorrow. Probably won't. But it would be interesting.

Charles Keeling
(Mon Feb 02 1998 00:12 - ID#344225)
@ Golden Cheesehead
Buy low, and sell high. That's the name of
the game-right Golden Cheesehead.

Not sure about the diamonds of GSR. I really
have not followed that company closely. Dont
have any stock in it. They seem to be a very
agressive exploration company though. It costs
a lot to develop a diamond find, and it seems
to take a long time. I had a chance to get in
on Voisey and passed it by. Also had a chance
to get in on Bre-X and passed it by. Bre-X
was selling for .35 cents at the time. I read
the litterature and said "nah, they don't have
anything." One never knows. Nearly everyone
who bought that stock became millionaires for
a while before they lost it all. I like to
think that I would have bailed out in time.
GREED does strange things to people.

GREED & FEAR----That is what propels us.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 00:17 - ID#431263)
WAKE UP MEIN AUSSIE FREUNDS! Especially you Steve! What's happenin' down under? Why all the buyin'? What happened to all the cryin'? Who's buyin' up Asia on the cheap? Are Aussie's buyin' this orgiastic spendin' spree? What's happening' to gold in Aussie dollar terms? How's Lihir doing? Have the Aussie gold stocks bottomed there yet? Dyin' for some local info!

Charles Keeling
(Mon Feb 02 1998 00:26 - ID#344225)

I read about it right here on one of the
links at World Gold Council or Gold Markets &
Trends. It was well documented, and came from
a news item. I remember it being the month of
December that they bought considerably more
than they had the prior month.

You know, Hashimoto made the statement during
his last visit to the USA that he was sometimes
tempted to sell Treasuries and buy gold. It
was about two months after that that I read the

Let's face it. Japan is printing money faster
than we are. They need to do something to
support their currency, and I am sure that
they know it. The USA has 610 tons of the
yellow metal, and it has sure helped us to
have a firm monetary currency.

If I can find that write up I will get back to
you. Could be it has been dropped since it was
some while ago.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 00:27 - ID#57232)
I figured you did
Earl: It is strange, isn't it, how the public can be herded like sheep. The market behavior is little different from voting behavior. Like a belief system. Few people are like us -- who can stand outside the belief system -- and look critically. I remember as a child being convinced by the words of this politician and that politician. Slowly I realized that not everyone can be 100% right -- because the other guy sounded just as convincing. Religion is the same way -- comparative religion leads to the same conclusions about belief systems. I finally learned to discern the truth from the lies -- it is not easy. Watching TV or reading the popular papers will never awaken the questioning mind. So most people do not realize what is being done to them.

But -- eventually the belief system shifts anyway. Perhaps this is why bull markets and popular presidents tend to go together -- same belief system? 'Politician beware' if the belief system fades for any reason -- then the public sees the shady ones for what they are. Even great presidents can suffer -- but if they are in their second term, they may be able to do great things even if they are not popular.

I wish we had a great leader right now -- it would be easier to fix our problems, than later when more damage is done. But that is not how history works -- the crisis occurs first, and then the great leaders come to the fore. We must be patient, and hope for the best.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 00:40 - ID#431263)
Can someone out there in Kitcoland tell me how Indonesia can declare a debt moratorium to the tune of $65 BILLION and the very next day see its stock market surge in value over 10.45%? Gott im Himmel! Isn't that what BC begged Suharto NOT TO DO just a few days ago via telephone? Suharto did it anyway! Does anyone think that Saddam isn't watching all this and laughing at BC's lack of international clout now that fornigate is front page news in every newspaper from here to Timbuktu! I predict that BC will find out that the world no longer respects either him or the office which he holds! America is now isolated, alone and vulnerable to global criticism no matter what she does in the ME! What a mess!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 00:50 - ID#403277)
JTF: Can you take me back to just before the fiasco and tell me what Veneroso was saying about Bre-x?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 00:54 - ID#57232)
Bre-x and Veneroso?
Ryter: I only learned about Frank Veneroso and his very expensive gold newsletter about November 1997. I have not been privy to his earlier predictions, though I suspect he was pretty good at them to be worth $8000/year. However, alot of people were taken in by the Bre-x fiasco -- pros included.

Do you know anything about FV's success rate? Was he no better than most of us on Kitco?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:01 - ID#402183)
How is gold faring in the Asian markets?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:03 - ID#57232)
G'Nite all!
Amazing rally in SEAsia -- did someone make a secret promise to Sukarno to cover all the billions in the debt moratorium? And all of those foreign investors found out? Seems unlikely, doesn't it?

F Veneroso did say that the SEAsia currencies were oversold, didn't he? I guess the rally may continue for a while, unless a major negative event occurs. We should all be on the lookout for an explanation, such as perhaps Hashimoto has gotten approval to reform the Japanese banks. That would do it, I think. I would like some good news right now. That would also make precious metal investing alot simpler.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:04 - ID#403277)
Bre-x & Veneroso
No, but I just read John Kaiser's newsletter from June, 1996. He said if you made money on Bre-x, you should take your profits and pay off the mortgage. You keep repeating that $8000 number. Seems to me the best way to make money in the gold market is write a newsletter. There are many books on the shelves these days by authors who say buying their book will help me become a millionaire. Most of them have probably got their pronouns mixed up. I am trying to evaluate that $8000 advice to see in which category Veneroso belongs.

John Disney__A
(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:05 - ID#24135)
Good Health to all.....
For Jtf and Oris of the DON.
The diplomatic skills of the Russians have done the
trick. I will speak no more of this matter and I will
cut the creature free in the desert of my mind. The
dialog is finished as far as I am concerned and I will
not mention him in future.
However, ORIS of the Don that flows Forever, you
ask too much for me to love ABX. Although I have said
that it is the best of the NA mines, I still feel it
is the best of a bad lot. In truth, While DD did have
an alledged problem with theft at the bottom end of the
organization, Many of These mines have the same problem
at the TOP end in the form of grossly overpaid
management. This is a harder problem to solve and is
part of the conundrum that despite low cash costs,
the profit of these mines is eaten up by high average
Regarding DDeeps, this dialog which has taken much
of your time ( and I regret that ) has stimulated my
own intererest in the company and has perhaps done me
a service.
The number of 110 mill oz reserves was arrived
at as follows. The last issue of the quarterly MJ
page 20 on DD states . "the group has ..acquired
mineral rights to the south of Johannesburg which
could form the basis for a new deep level mine.
Total proven reserves in the whole group are
estimated at 449 million tonnes of underground ore
at a grade of 7.8 g/tonne, and 116 million tonnes of
surface ..... at 0.6 g/tonne"
Now 449mill tons * 7.8g/32 = 109 mill oz. plus about
2 mill from the surface stuff.
It is possible that this is an error. I have sent
and email message to the MJ for clarification.
Also, in the DD quarterly statement they say
"the pre-feasibility study for the CROWN JEWELS ( South
Wits ) project is progressing ......scheduled for
completion in the december quarter of 1998. I know
nothing about this project .. could it relate to
the mineral rights mentioned above?? I may investigate
further. Perhaps I will report if I find anything
of interest.
As I have said many times, I do not own this stock,
only some options good till 2003 I think, striking 55
PS for Oris I hope Sheherazade three is well and likes
her sunglasses

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:13 - ID#57232)
Newsletters make money, brokers make money, investors may make money
Ryter: I agree with you -- many people who learn how to invest, and fail to make money write newsletters. If they were that good at investing, why do they need to give out their secrets. We need to see how FV fairs in Hurlbert's newsletter. I may have the name wrong, but I know I am close. This fellow only rates other newsletters in his newsletter.

Regardless, from what I know now, the CB's are not going to sell gold anymore, except if they are forced to due to risk of liquidation. Gold fundamentals have bottomed. If you are new at this -- don't take my word for it. I have lost a bundle of money in taking other people's advice. Eventually you will know what you need to know. By the way, this site is an excellent source of news -- you just need to lurk on it until you figure out how to invest by using it. That is not easy, since most of the Kitcoites are perpetual bulls.

G'Nite all!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:13 - ID#253228)
mozel re: your Feb 01, 22:22
J.M. Hurst back late 1960's or early 1970's published The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing. The work was primarily chart based, but the appendix was mathematical/statistical. His theory was that 75% of the price of a particular stock could be explained by trend, 23% by cyclical action, and the remaining 2% was random movement, randomly dispersed. It is easy to put a trend through a time series with a polynomial formula for a line. You can keep it simple ( straight line ) or try something like a fifth degree applied to either actual data or data transformed by some method like logs or exponents. The trick is to judge which formula produces a reasonable fit for the time series in question. I ran about 16 options and settled on a fifth degree polynomial applied to semi-logs of the data.
Once you get a reasonable trend line ( which can be extended into the future for a short period ) if nothing else you know if the current price is above or below the trend. For example Homestake mines trend value is now right at $15. At $9.50, it is 37% below trend. Homestake has in the past 40 years reached -80% and +120% relative to its then trend value, most of the action falling within 50% + ( - ) .
The cyclical component is more difficult to ascertain. The Foundation for the Study of Cycles has published some interesting statistical concepts over its history which are very helpful in identifying cycles. I have added a few minor alterations to some of their concepts. I have had some success and some failure. The key to the vault is essentially to put together the correct combination of oscillations that both represent the past and when projected into the future ( along with the trend ) match reality. I did do well in the decline of Homestake into the end of last year, but then my calculations "blew up" on me and I had to rework the combination. I think I am back on track. I show Homestake reaching an extreme right at the end of April at more than 80% below trend. This is extreme and of course it will snap back toward the trend with as much energy as it declined.
The kind of action that most gold bugs would like to see really won't come until after the summer of 1999, although between May, 1998 and the early spring of 1999 most action should be modestly up. Since most gold shares move in the same direction at the same time I would caution Spenc and all others to play the wait and see game a few more months.
A somewhat long winded answer to you question.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:21 - ID#270224)
Hurst and other technicians
I've never seen a technical analyst yet who more than randomly guessed right. People spend too much time focusing on trends and not enough focusing on value. Witness the lack of discussion on why silver has gone 33% from its low while gold has gone up only 10%. A technician can't tell you why but a person who buys silver can.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:26 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Dear Brother John,

You did amazing job.

Honestly I had no hopes you
would sacrifice so much in order
to save this suffering ABX shareholder
from a heart failure. To tell you the
sad truth, I do not care about ABX, I don't own it,
I got enough fun with my poor little Royal Oak, you know..

Honestly, my soul was hurting every
time I read these terrible things
about you, placed on these pages of this holy
forum, and this was the main reason for my
crying application to you.. Now it's over.

If it not over, and the one, that should now
take a pipe of peace from your hands and smoke it
( I know, it's bad for health, but who cares ) , will
continue his attacks on you, my beloved
brother, this one will regret it so much,
that I can not even imagine this level
of his regret by myself.

With this, I wish myself good night and
I wish you good morning, and may the force
be with you...


(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:30 - ID#57232)
Should be asleep
KO: I would change one thing in what you said. 'Value' can refer to fundmentals, and unfortunately fundamentals do not tell you when to buy, but techincal information can.

Now, if you mean 'value' in the sense of a precious metals trader such as RJ who knows how to ride the metals market equally well up or down, that is a different matter altogether. I have discovered that people such as RJ have much better insight than conventional fundamental type investors, or technical types. I think the bottom line is that you must be equally at home with all of these approaches if you want to be good at making money in the markets. That takes time -- I know I am not there yet, but should be before I retire. How else will I survive during retirement, except by investing?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:32 - ID#253228)
KO re technicians
I agree that most technicians are only randomly correct. After all, if they really knew the future they wouldn't be wasting time meeting a newsletter deadline. The same can be said for those who reach their conculsions based on the "fundamentals" as they see them.

If we all knew that the price of gold on April 30 was going to be $xx it would be that price today because people would act immediately to position themmselves to benefit and their actions would force the price to $xx + ( - ) carrying cost.

So lets be thankful for a diversity of opinion, otherwise no one would be there to sell when you want to buy.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:33 - ID#373403)
If we are not willing to pay for our current consumption, what leads us to believe that the future generation will be willing to pay for theirs AND ours? Greenspan should do the only honorable thing and monetize the debt. Inflation will take back what was not ours to steal from the future in the first place. Gold would probably do alright.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:35 - ID#318118)
Gold in Asia
Has anybody seen what is happening with gold this A.M. ???

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:38 - ID#270224)
JTF "Value"
To me "value" means to buy what is cheap at any moment in time. This means to forget about whether or silver prices will go up or down depending on what BC does with his penis and concentrate instead on which companies can make money no matter what happens. The "cream" always rises to the top in a crash or a bull market.

This also means to buy stocks that act like private banks and can afford to buy up "foreclosed" assets if the market tanks.

This means to dump a mutual fund that owns 50 precious metals stocks and only 2 or 3 of the investments can survive a crash. This is why I go on and on about Franco Nevada and Prime Resources. They make money in any market.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:39 - ID#429245)
USA Gold
Charles Keeling ( 00:23 post ) : You say USA has 610 tons of gold. I understand USA has 25% of all CB gold, about 8,300 tons. They cannot sell any.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:41 - ID#253228)
My own opinion is that direct default is more honest than monitizing debt. The latter seems to me more the equivalent of issuing a bad check. At least default punishes those foolish enough to hold questionable paper. Monitizing punishes many people who fall more into the innocent bystander category.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:46 - ID#153102)
Thanks for the explanation. And I appreciate your going into the details.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:47 - ID#270224)
Value part 2
A technican will buy a stock like Placer Dome because he thinks gold will go up and everyone else is buying it.

A value investor will avoid it because it can't earn a profit below $320 an ounce U.S. for gold.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:48 - ID#266105)

So Mr. Disney what is said book Night Flight briefly
about and by whom.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:50 - ID#266105)

Mr. Mozel you seem less than irrationally exuberant.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:53 - ID#420428)
What is your source for US CB having 25% of all CB gold? I have not been able to locate a source which details how much gold the US CB buys/sells/owns.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:53 - ID#28585)

From Canada's National Newspaper, ( c ) 1997 The Globe and Mail

Monday, Feb. 2, 1998

Munk reassured on gold

DAVOS, Switzerland - Peter Munk, chairman of Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp., got part of what he wanted from his weekend appearance at the World Economic Forum when he drew a reassurance from the governor of the Bank of France that the world's third-largest holder of gold doesn't plan to sell any of its holdings.

"Speaking for our own institution, it's not our intention to sell any gold," bank governor Jean-Claude Trichet confirmed for journalists after a seminar which included Mr. Munk and three central bankers, including Mr. Trichet. He had said earlier he understands that Germany and Italy don't plan any gold sales either.

Mr. Munk, who has been campaigning for central bankers to reaffirm their faith in gold, argued that the main factor in the slide in the price of gold has been investors' concerns about whether central banks were about to dump part of their huge gold reserves on the market. Gold was as high as $366 ( U.S. ) at the beginning of 1997 and now hovers around $300,
closing at $302.90 on Friday.

Mr. Munk said that by not speaking out in defence of gold, central bankers are allowing speculators to push down its price.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:58 - ID#266105)

I wonder if there's been a public interest taken in the
debt, in that it isn't over there, or there, maybe it's around
here somewhere.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 01:59 - ID#257148)
Data mate, just data
here some data 4U

Troy ounces ( millions )

1990 1992 1994 1996 1997*
UnitedStates 261.9 261.8 261.7 261.7 261.7
Canada 14.8 9.9 3.9 3.1 3.1
Australia 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 2.6
Japan 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2
Austria 20.4 19.9 18.3 10.7 10.1
Belgium 30.2 25 25 15.3 15.3
Denmark 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7
France 81.9 81.9 81.9 81.9 81.9
Germany 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2
Greece 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5
Italy 66.7 66.7 66.7 66.7 66.7
Netherlands 43.9 43.9 34.8 34.8 27.1
Norway 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Portugal 15.8 16.1 15 16.1 14
Spain 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6
Sweden 6.1 6.1 6.1 4.8 4.8
Switzerland 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3
UnitedKingdom 18.9 18.6 18.4 18.4 18.4
Subtotal 793.1 782.4 764.3 746.1 730.4
TOTAL 1,143.80 1129.9 1115.8 1104.9 1099.5
( Official Reserves ) *As of April 30
**As of July 3 Source: International Monetary Fund, CPM Group


(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:00 - ID#393224)
Value part 3
KO--a smart trader will buy Placer immediately after the pros do ( up move on big volume ) . He/she will then sell as soon as everyone else notices that Placer is 'moving'. Mom and Pop will then hold Placer with no stop loss as it tanks. They will then sell out in despair at the bottom to guess whom??? ( the guy they bought it from ) .Sounds good to me. Cheers, Nick

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:03 - ID#270224)
Interesting data. Anyone care to guess why people aren't turning in overvalued currencies for guilders and swiss francs with high gold backing?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:05 - ID#153102)
There are a lot of stakeholders in the equities game.
There is still a perception in all conventional minds that the power to create unlimited credit is a power with force and permanence.
A feeling of restored confidence could well knock gold down again until more signs of termite damage appear. The inevitable hardly ever arrives on schedule.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:07 - ID#429245)
IV: Cut and paste the above URL to your browser. Chart 12 shows world CB gold distribution.

Another way to calculate USA holdings is to divide 11,050 billion dollars at their official price of $42/oz.

A few days ago there was a thread on USA gold where it was said that USA needs congressional approval to sell any, if I remember.

John Disney__A
(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:08 - ID#24135)
Sleep Well Oris - Peace in the Desert at Last
For Oris
Thank you for your wise mediation and sleep well. Oh by
the way you mentioned Russian Chicks - those Gymnasts
girls look pretty good - and the tennis players too - I was
thinking about a south african/australia/russian chick
friendship club. Any ideas?? Keep working on the Bio-in-V
problem - It may be serious. That Ziva makes a real
contribution. Hepcat has done wonders for racial harmony
For 2bro2b -
Perhaps I was dreaming - Did you mention A de Saint Exupery?
He wrote it - As you might guess its about flying planes at

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:08 - ID#257148)
Coooooeeeeeee across the ditch
Nick@C G'day mate, now no foul langyish, yer hear? Actually I never use *that* word as an adjective, only a destination.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:09 - ID#420428)
Aurator: Re data
Thanks mate; this is just what I have been looking for. These figures are significant, if only because of the story they tell re their respective CB philosophies concerning the importance of the yellow.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:13 - ID#28585)
With new evidence of German gold hoarding and France's most recent announcement precluding the possibility of future gold sales, the stage is now set for a massive re-accumulation of gold by the European CB's in advance of the imminent announcements concerning the exact nature of the EURO.

Given the precarious state of most major first-world currencies ( from Canada to Australia ) today, it is almost a virtual certainty that the EURO will be at the very least a gold-supported currency. With gold support, the EURO will have immediate credibility and thus, long term viability; otherwise, the EURO likely will find itself consigned to the trash heap of history before it ever gets off the ground.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:18 - ID#270224)
Hong Kong up 14% What would a technician do now
Buy or sell short?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:19 - ID#393224)
G'day Auracious. I am waiting for your good friend ( Z ) to reappear as I wanted to second your proposal and then declare the move unanimous. Will bide my time.

G'day John Disney. Salaam Alechum. Was thinking of you today, mate, when I saw the price of Ramsgate. I shall not report the price to you as I fear that you may go walkabout in the desert again and I would hate to lose you. Although I must admit I am very curious as to whether the veils of the luscious fruits of the desert have been lifted?? You must be very careful as the desert women have very sharp knives--and they know how to use them. Nearly as dangerous as Aussie gold shares. Welcome back.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:20 - ID#420428)
GW; Great website.
Did as you suggested and have downloaded. In the background, my African grey parrot is yelling "GO, GOLD, GO!"

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:21 - ID#266105)

Mozel -- just tryin' to grin & bear it. Always
appreciate your sense and erudition.

JD - got it and will be on the lookout.

..a man w/o a yacht shud be taken out & shot -- jp morgan

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:22 - ID#270224)
Hong Kong up 14.6%
Same technican. Buy now or sell short?

Asian exuberance in the year of the Tiger blows me away. Chinese New Year gets people in the mood.

Thats it we have the Gung Hay Fat Choy buy index.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:26 - ID#252127)

Another way that checks Auratora-tora's excellent table. Go Barron's Magazine, under "Federal Reserve Data Bank" you will find that the gold reserve has a value of 11.046 billion, divide by $42 ( or $42 and change, the amount that US values its gold ) and you should come up with about 260 million ounces. The estimate for world CB holding is from 900 billion to 1.1 trillion ounces.
Presto; about 25%.
Since most government statistics are false, this method is close enough for government work.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:27 - ID#270224)
Last time before bed Hong Kong up 15.1%
If anyone can show me a technician who pegged this massive one day run up I'll eat my hat.

What now? Buy or sell short?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:29 - ID#266105)

Well zed, Nick. ( snicker ) Please Aurator, whatever
springs to mind...

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:38 - ID#228283)
@ KO

Any tech will tell you that a parabolic rise is unsustainable.This is shaping up to be abull trap! Caution is advised.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:38 - ID#266105)

The cockatiel in the cage in the corner occasionally
lets fly with the broken strains of the French nat'l anthem.
As you-know-who sits on the couch in feigned innocence.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:40 - ID#335184)


(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:42 - ID#153102)
I'm in for the duration with a jaw set grin.
BTW, A couple of nights ago I published something on martial law.
Surprised at the lack of response.

What do you calculate the public debt per person and private net worth per person are in USA ?

Did you ever notice this relationship:
a lien

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:42 - ID#420428)
Jack, re Barron's
Thanks for that. It accords with a previous post from GW. 25% of the world's CB total, you say? Interesting that the USA, with 6% of the world's population, consumes 25% of the world's annual consumption of resources. Is this just a coincidence?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:45 - ID#257148)
ahhemm...clearing 'frog' from throat {p!ss off Jacques}--


Thanks buddy, let's see what percolates tonight in a *channeling-free* kitco.

Yes the data speaks volumes about CB belief systems cf what they promulgate.

Agree that the Euro must be gold backed for "confidence in the currency". Also believe that the Euro will not fly, like my neighbour's emus. But the sideshow is interesting... too many hurdles IMHO, not the least of which is the simple fact that all Euros hate either
( a ) The Brits or
( b ) the French or
( c ) the Germans or
( d ) the Swiss or
( e ) the Spanish or
( f ) any other Euro

May 98 is the start, I recall, of Euro calibrations.. implication is for greater volatility, hence opportunity.

Golly, gee fellas, Tanx

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:45 - ID#393224)
Much more readable like this. Cheers, Nick.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:49 - ID#257148)
OK --KO?
perhaps the smarter move is to exchange overpriced US$ for gold or undervalued real assets? Like Ted' slice of NS Paradise? Rather than for gold backed paper..

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:58 - ID#335184)
good nite mate, zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.................

tar baby

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:58 - ID#252127)
Lihir ADR

Lihir ADR up around US $5 ( 20% ) in a relatively short period. If gold were fairly priced, this ( 20% ) figure may look small; as operations are going well. Will Vengold ( VENGF ) follow suit?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 02:59 - ID#420428)
Your bird has uncanny foresight. But they are a most discerning species. Re the Euro, if independent European countries, even poorer ones like Greece, Spain and Portugal, have relatively hgih CB Au holdings ( at least compared to Canada and Australia ) , that would seem to indicate that the Euro group will want the same ballpark sort of backing. My parrot is considering this one just now, but he never makes quick pronouncements.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 03:08 - ID#228283)

forsome unknown reason I'm getting a blank on my computer when trying to access the GLOBEX. Would someone please give me the correct url ?? thanx

(Mon Feb 02 1998 03:15 - ID#257148)
If I can't be a Anthrax sniffer dog...I wanna be a witch Pricker
( your handle is a sobriety test ) What is your parrot's name, If his/her name ain't Crsus, I hope it us a channel for Croesus.

Look, I know I shouldn't make fun of belief systems, but, please, every kitcoite who wishes to retain some degree of objectivity and sense of humour as we traverse this bare score of months to the turn of the century...Oh I mean...THE~~~~M~I~L~L~E~N~I~U~M~~~~please, please read about the crusades and witch manias in Charlie Mackay's Extraordinary ( not Extraterrestrial ) Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. It is available, FREE, at Gutenberg on know where...


(Mon Feb 02 1998 03:17 - ID#266105)

Missed that on martial law.

Did you ever notice this relationship:
a lien

Interesting. Lessee-- beautiful?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 03:18 - ID#153102)
For Americans:
Slavery or indentured servitude is a legal punishment for a crime in American law. Read your 13th Amendment.
Under martial law what may be a crime ? Answer: anything. The definition of martial law is no law.
To have law, you must come out of Egypt.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 03:21 - ID#393224)

Deal with what 'IS' and not what you think 'IS' should be.

With regard to the perambulations of what value should be ( gold,$$$ etc. ) consider the following. I have heard ( seen ) many of you here decry the rise on Asian stock markets today as having no value. It won't last---what a bunch of suckers etc.

On Friday you could have converted 1000 oz of gold into Hong Kong shares, then today sold the Honkers shares and bought 1150 oz of gold , had a big Chinese dinner and gone to bed with a smile on your face.

Don't bullshit me about Asian currencies having no value etc., don't tell LGB the $$$ he made on US shares has no value, don't slavishly stick with pm's as the only store of value--- as you are deluding yourselves!!!!! Trading is the name of the game and the REAL suckers are those of you who buy a pm stock and sit on it while it disappears into the ground.




IF IT GOES DOWN --SELL--SELL--SELL!!! ( said 3 times 'caus yer 'pride' get's in the way )


simple cheers,nick

(Mon Feb 02 1998 03:24 - ID#257148)
a bird in the hand probably leaves a little gift..
you gotta a parrot 2?

Didn't know I had to have a parrot to be a gold-bug. Oh Well, there's a flock of feral Parakeets nesting down in the Macracarpa trees.. Hmmm, all I need is a little bird-trap-- ( shut your eyes now Ted ) --they're eating seeds at the moment, dock. Now y'all probably don't know this, nor care, but there was only one mammal ( a bat ) in NZ b4 the first humans only just over 1000 years ago. So they knew how to make bird traps. as do I. A little trough, a little lassoo, just outa reach, dangling higher than -------

Hey IV or 2BRO2B, how do I teach little Crsus to speak?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 03:25 - ID#28585)
February 2, 1998

Stocks soar in morning trade

Hong Kong stocks roared to a sharply higher morning close on Monday as sentiment improved following the Lunar New
Year holiday on growing optimism about reforms in regional markets, brokers said.

The blue chip Hang Seng Index surged 1,018.36 points, or 11.01 per cent, to close the midsession at 10,270.72, the
highest level since January 5.

``Overseas markets are higher and regional currencies are steadier and that helped lift Hong Kong stocks,'' said Kinson
Au, research manager at Asia Financial Securities. ``But I think the morning rally is a bit overdone,'' he added.

The Jakarta Composite Index jumped 50.16 points, or 10.3 per cent, at 536.10 in late morning as sentiment improved over
the effectiveness of Indonesian economic reforms.

Singapore's Straits Times Industrials Index rose 10.65 per cent to 1,394.10 at the lunch break and the Philippines' main
index closed 10.15 per cent up at 2,145.70.

``It ( the rally ) was out of our expectation. We initially expected the index to test a high of 9,800 but now it breached
through the 10,000 level,'' a broker at a regional house said. ``Many new funds were seen entered the market,'' he added.

European and US funds were seen snapping up shares of banks and major property companies, brokers said.

Active buying lifted HSBC Holdings $18.00 to $189.50. The banking giant topped the most active list with 14.57 million
shares worth $2.72 billion after its US unit HSBC Americas Inc reported a hefty 24 per cent rise in its net income for

``Banks are strong today and HSBC is catching up on its gains in London,'' one broker said.

Hang Seng Bank soared $4.75 to $65.75 and Bank of East Asia was up 75 cents at $14.10. _ Reuters

(Mon Feb 02 1998 03:27 - ID#252127)

Other day at the supermarket, my bill came out to $6.66 and the clerk ( a young woman ) stated that it was a bad luck number.
I'm happy to see that the youth of our land are slowly catching on.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 03:32 - ID#266105)

The girls bought the bird with their allowance, I forget
its name. I just whistle at it and call it bird. Don't really
know the Croesus myth or history, someone mentioned it all
started with him and his 'blivets' which isn't in my dictionary
but assume is some sort of receipt for the physical and got'm
thinkin' twice.

Mackay's is on the shelf here, not the full length but
a sorta shortened, extract version.

Ended up at Gutenberg's a time or two on the way to something
else. One time got lost in that endless one of Coleridge's,
Celestine ( ? ) That's an interesting set of a spooky small
world of Frankenstein, Drac, Mrs. and Mr. Shelley, Wollencraft, etc.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 03:32 - ID#257148)
LGB will like this one too...
Nick almost time for a Chinese New Year Rendition of Kenny Roger's little investment ditty?

Um LGB, always knew you were OK, are we talking epiphany? or merely intimations of mortality?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 03:43 - ID#257148)
much ado about nothing......

Perhaps these reports from Asia are merely exhultations over Dead Cat Bounces.
OTOH Kondratieff cycles usually show the trough value to be at 80-85% of peak, in that case the +125% devaluation of the Indonesian Rupiah look excessive therefore may indicate value.
Although two caution spring to mind.
1 ) I've been to Indonesia several times. I am fearful of the domestic strife ( people are beginning to starve ) escalating. Thing really could get worse
2 ) Kondratieff, as far as I remember, ( JTF?? ) only ever looked at European data. HMMM also too the follow up studies I read a decade or more ago, only European data. Hmmmm I remember a study of Japanese Rice Prices that followed the K cycle temporally, but do not remember ( and have only just asked the question myself ) whether the Peak:Trough ratios were that 80-85%.

In other words: Is it possible that the cultural aspects of the ( First? ) great Asian Bubble, take it outside that which we think ( at kitco ) we are aware of, the European Bubble?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 03:54 - ID#257148)
It's just a book, just words, just perhaps, the pen is mighier than the sword..
Yes I have seen that Bowdlerised Mackay that is on sale in the US. Burn it. The best chapters have been ommitted. Here are the ones on the Crusades and Witchraft..

A British Publisher called Wordsworth Classics recently remaindered the real Mackay ( 633pp ) for just over US$2 I bought 15 copies and still have a couple.

Old Soldier
truly appreciate your posts.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 03:59 - ID#252127)
Shows gold at $303 and silver at $6.30. Said the Austrialan dollar surged on Asian confidence.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 04:00 - ID#393224)
No I do NOT have the URL for Popular Delusions and the Madness of Kitcoites!! Am much too lazy to look it up so PLEaSE Mr. Auracious, Sir, -can you post it here??? ( in between *f* words, of course!! ) .

ps--be very careful pricking witches, mate. You could be Bobbitized!!!

As per Kenny Rogers and "you gotta know when to hold 'em"--bet you can't find the original and save me some beer-drinking time. Otherwise--I shall have to take a deep breath and start singin'

It's been a long day mate--have been attending to the business--you know--lots of driving--and in the 36 degree heat here--I am totally buggered--so have had to replenish my bodily fluids.

Don't forget the Pop delusions, mate--cheers

(Mon Feb 02 1998 04:01 - ID#355361)
Aurator: Catching birds
First, there are no prerequisites ( such as owning a parrot ) to being a gold-bug, other perhaps than having GBS's "uncommon sense".
Here is a little true story about catching birds.
When my African grey parrot first arrived in the house 6 yrs. ago as a young bird, it saw me sweeping the kitchen floor with a BROOM and went ballistic with fear and rage and deep gutteral growls. This happened a few times. Recently I read from a parrot-fancier that every A.G.P. is from birth afraid of brooms. Reason: the birds are excellent climbers and are very hard to catch so the natives have traditionally beat the foliage with brooms to force the birds out. Mine is second generation Canadian. Now, that is uncommon sense, would you agree?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 04:07 - ID#266105)

Weren't the native Americans a vagrant band of Asians
somewhere/time. I could maybe reconnoiter a trickle of that.
Those silly injuns, they esteem their ritual substances
*de*hallucinogenics. Off to Gutenberg's.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 04:10 - ID#393224)
I reserve one copy, mate. Will pay you in gold!!! Please email me. Antipomatenick.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 04:12 - ID#257148)
Let's get Fizzicle
Email me your physical - it's yours

(Mon Feb 02 1998 04:21 - ID#393224)
Have just ordered in some Chinese and the missus and daughter are pigging out without moi--so gotta go and will email you the physical anon.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 04:30 - ID#257148)
perigrinate little oyster, while I peraurate and one day we shall meet....

( Never try multiplying in Roman Numerals, it hurts, that's why Fibonacci-introduced sanskrit numerals-Oh never mind )

IV, have u binlurkinlong? cos I'm an 'orny ornithologist, Now, what about the British tits that have learnt to open milk bottles left outside by Ye Olde Englishe Milke Man by pecking on the lids? I recall ( danger word for those who know me ) that studies showed the speed of the learnign of this habit from one region to another. De birds were learning to drink a pint a milk a day.

Oysters are much more interesting. They open and close depending on their Latitude and the closest water mass. Take an oyster - someone else's-- glub--hmm-- take an oyster from the SE Texas Coast ( one of my dream places, well, not the Coast as much as Amarillo, Austen, ) and wrap him up nice and warm ( are they androgenous? ) and fly him by jumbo jet to some laboratories up the NW Portland..employ some scientist to tell you when lil' ol ossie oyster opens again ( hey every scientist needs a job, eh Fellas? ) and he'll tell you that little old ossie will open at high tide on Coast what is it 100 km away?

some smart oyster. smarter than some posters. anyone heard of oyster-chanelling?

BTW, I shouldn't really tell you this, but, the best, the supreme oyster in the world is the Bluff Oyster.

And I'm happy if you don't know where Bluff is.

BTW, why has Banff got two ffs?


(Mon Feb 02 1998 04:39 - ID#393224)
Called my broker first thing this morning and said "Mate, I wanna buy up big in Indonesian shares this morning--can you do it???"

He says "No, mate. Indonesian shares are 'unrecognized'--can't get em for you"

Dang it--I'm feelin' 10% missed opportunity poorer this arvo. Gotta get my act together in advance. Am calling Hong Kong brokers tomorrow!!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 04:46 - ID#257148)

(Mon Feb 02 1998 05:12 - ID#393224)
Wake up Kitcoites!!!

Gold ain't the only game in town!!

I would be buying Yap stone wheels, if I thought I could get more gold for 'em later!!

In 'n out is the way to go!! Just ask Bill.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 05:29 - ID#393224)
'Asian meltdown'???
Hong Kong +14.33%
Indonesia +14.03
Philippines +10.15
Singapore +13.74
Thailand +12.02

Hope for a gold 'meltdown' this week!!!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 05:35 - ID#393224)
Received in mail today
Normandy ( NDY ) report
Production for quarter 428,450 oz ( six months 813,044 ) Quarter record.
Total cash cost--314/oz ( $A )
Cash margin--316/oz ( $A )

Been talkin myself blue in the face to get y'all to buy em this last 6 months.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 06:34 - ID#30116)
London FTSE 100 is up 127. Doesn't look like a down day....

(Mon Feb 02 1998 06:43 - ID#286199)
Futures up 10.70 - big day for paper coming

(Mon Feb 02 1998 07:14 - ID#257136)
virus warning.
This message was in my email this a. m..
I've taken liberty to post it here in event it can be of aid to some.

One of our clients sent this e-mail VIRUS warning to our offices today.
We immediatly thought of all our other clients and users... and how
this VIRUS might effect them if they did not know about it intime.

This is a Virus Alert -- Watch Your Email Messages.

If you receive an email titled:

JOIN THE CREW ( DO NOT open it. )

It will erase everything on your hard drive. Forward this letter out to
as many people as you can. This is a new, very malicious virus and not
many people know about it. This information was announced yesterday
morning from IBM; please share it with everyone that might access the

Once again, pass this along to EVERYONE in your address book so that
this may be stopped. Also, do not open or even look at any mail that


This virus will attach itself to your computer components and render
them useless. Immediately delete any mail items that say this. AOL has
said that this is a very dangerous virus and that there is NO remedy =
for it at this time.


(Mon Feb 02 1998 07:28 - ID#26793)
From Davos: China firmly rejects devaluation

(Mon Feb 02 1998 07:30 - ID#286199)
This is a fairly common hoax running around the internet. It has been called "Good Times" and "AIDS" etc.

Here's a good URL for such stuff:

(Mon Feb 02 1998 07:36 - ID#26793)
Japan shows decline in external reserves

(Mon Feb 02 1998 07:40 - ID#238295)
The bull case
Bullish scenarios for the yellow:


"This year, investors will re-invent the power of gold as a reserve currency"

by Tom Peeters, Financieel Economische Tijd ( Belgian version of "The Times" )

Now, nobody seems to be interested in gold. On January 10, the POG went under the 280 $ level. In the
beginning of the 80's, one ounce of gold was selling for 850 $ ! What is more, gold was during the past 10
years the worst investment possible. Someone who bought in 1987 10.000 $ in a fund, invested in 500 S&P
companies, would have now more than 40.00 $. But someone who bought gold instead, has now less than
6.500 $...

Gold has lost its attraction and is now being treated as an ordinary commodity, just like copper, coffee or lead.

The big fall in the POG does not seem to be very logical. When we look at demand and supply, we can only
conclude that it looks very favorable for goldbugs. The demand is now at a record level. Gold Fields Mineral
Services calculated that last year, the total demand for gold rose by 16 %. The engine behind this increase,
was the demand for juwelery, which increased by 15 %. Especially India, the Middle-East and Europe
showed brisk demand. On the supply side, output from goldmines rose by only 2.3 %. In addition, the
biggest South-African goldminegroups announced big restructurings. These should lead to cost reductions and
should boost growth within and outside the country. We saw a merger between Golds of South Africa and
Gengold. With a yearproduction of more than 130 tonnes is Goldco the second biggest goldmining company
in the world. And Anglo American has put all his holdings into Anglogold and is now the biggest
goldproducer in the world. This wave of mergers should normally have been very positive for the price of
goldmining shares. However, the opposite was true...

De POG has decreased every year, with the exception of february '96, when it reached a peak of 417 $/ounce.
Last year, there was also the Bre-X saga, which had a devastating influence on the POG. In addition, the issue
about Nazi gold was also a negative factor. It is obvious that a number of Swiss banks have gold in their
deposits, which has been taken ( stolen ) from Judish people during the worldwar II. When this gold would
find its way to the free market, the this could cause again a negative effect on the POG.

But there is more. Golddealers fear that central banks will sell in the short term a large piece of their gold
holdings. This would have very negative effects on the POG, since they are holding 35.000 tonnes or 30 % of
the total volume of gold which has ever been produced ! Due to this, goldproducers started to sell forward a
large portion of their gold deposits. This caused the POG to go down. In addition, speculative funds also sold
a lot of their gold deposits. Also, it looks like a new generation of central bankers has born who are backing
away from the gold standard. Examples are : sales of the bank of Argentina in december '97 of 124 tonnes of
gold, their entire gold deposit. Instead, they bought American bonds, which had a yield of 5 % and which
give an annual return of 275 mio $.

These sales of central banks undermine the position of gold as a reservevalue within the financial system. On
the first view, this means that the future of the goldmining industry looks very bleak. But we can give 2
important remarks on this.

The first one is, that sales of central banks are not new. The 393 tonnes of gold which has been sold last year,
was more than double of the average of the past 10 years. But much less than the 622 tonnes sold in 1992 and
the 484 tonnes sold in 1993. But there is an important difference with the past. When in the past investors
reacted on the news of effective sales, now they react on sales rumours. Such a roumur was the announcement
last year by the Swiss parliament commission, that it would be better to sell half of the total gold deposit of the
central bank.

But a number of analists do not think that central banks will now start to sell all their gold deposits. It is true
that a number of European central banks anticipated the upcoming Euro and sold a part of their goldholdings.
In March '96, Belgium sold 203 tonnes and in January '97, Holland sold 300 tonnes of gold. Australia sold in
the middle of last year 167 tonnes of gold.

But according to goldanalist Frank Veneroso, these are exceptional transactions for a unique happening. By
the beginning of May '98, these kind of operations will be finished. At that time, it will be decided which
countries will be part of the EURO. This date is a date which will stimulate the official sales of gold, but
marks at the same time the end of these sales. In a recent study by Williams de Bre, a wave of sales by central
bankers will by highly unlikely. When in 1975 the USA sold 530 tonnes and the IMF sold 1.600 tonnes
between 1976 and 1980, the POG reached a low of 280 $/ounce. But this did not prevent the POG to go up
again as high as 850 $/ounce. This study concluded, that the level of goldreserves by the European Central
Bank will be highly influenced by the Geman Bundesbank. And they are in favour of a large goldreserve,
backing the EURO.

David Scully, economist at Price Waterhouse, is referring to what happened in the end if the seventies, to
explain the future high demand for gold. The sales of the USA and the IMF were the reason for the jump in
the POG above the 800 $ level. It is true that sales had a negative effect on the POG, but institutional investors
and financial institutions entered back into the goldmarket soon afterwards. Their reasoning was as follows :
when the USA will not support their dolllars with gold, then it might be a good idea that private investors will
take care themselves for this support...

Exactly this link between the dollar and its support ( gold ) , is now causing a lot of problems with many
economists. This is the second remark in the discussion on the waning role of gold as being a reservevalue.

It might well be that the financial crisis in South-East Asia will be the reason why the dollar, the world's
biggest reserve currency, has in fact no backing anymore and that gold will become again the most important
reserve currency.

In the short time, this crisis will have a negative effect on the POG, because of the depreciation of the Asian
currencies. But in the longer term, the opposite will be the case. The weakness of the financial system, which
was backed by the US dollar, will be apparent.

The Canadian economist Maison Placements arguments that the US dollar has currently little backing by gold,
because the USA has during the past decade printed a lot of `paper dollars', in order to provide the world with
enough dollars. After every crisis situation, the USA started to print a lot of extra dollars. This was also the
case during the Asian crisis. But when the EURO will be a fact, a new strong international currency will be
created and with the appreciation of the yen, the demand for dollars will decrease. And when the Asian
countries and whith them other countries will start to doubt about the real strenght of the dollar and will realize
that the greenback has nearly no goldbacking, it could be quite possible that the yellow metal will re-arise as
the most important reservecurrency. And this just at a time when central bankers would like to abandon the
gold standard.

The analysts of Maison Placements and Frank Veneroso think that the dollar bublle will burst in 1998. The
POG in dollar terms will increase dramatically, due to the coming weakness of the dollar itself. So it seems
that gold will still have a future. The days of gold being a reservecurrency do not seem to be over yet... When
the rules of free markets between demand and supply of gold will be respected, we could be in for a dramatic
surge of the yellow metal...

(Mon Feb 02 1998 07:40 - ID#365216)
while I'm away,
I will be on travel and not back to my computer until 0630 ( EST )
9 Feb. At that time, I expect a detailed synposis of events in
the metals market for the week posted here. It is up to you all
to decide who actually writes the reports. Vronsky, I would like
a summary of all new updates to the golden eagle as well. This is
your General; that is all.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 07:41 - ID#26793)
Korea says 100 tons of donated gold has been exported

(Mon Feb 02 1998 07:42 - ID#358318)
a.j., Speed; re Crew Hoax - see also:

(Mon Feb 02 1998 07:47 - ID#26793)
Join Crew listed here as a hoax

(Mon Feb 02 1998 07:52 - ID#403216)
ZAPPED By Virus Need Help to Rebuild Urls
The new virus erased my hard drive on Thursday. In the process I lost many helpful URL addresses, e.g. 25 XAU HUI quotes, etc. Any recommendations for quotes, prices, charts, etc. would be most appreciated. Please let me thank you in advance.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 07:54 - ID#26793)
Comment on Asian and European rallies
This is a good sign for gold. My reasoning is that no business person anywhere in the world can operate in an environment where markets and currencies can swing 15% in a day or 70% in a month. Stability is required in order to make correct business decisions. Only gold can provide that stability. The business world will soon demand stability.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 08:16 - ID#26793)
Russia ready to defend the rouble. Asia crisis is over.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 08:44 - ID#253389)
China's hopes at Davos
Pardon the long post but this is not yet available on Stratfor Systems Web pages: ( I don't think I've seen this previously posted )

Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
February 2, 1998

Chinese Engage in Brave Talk in Davos

Last week's World Economic Forum at Davos, in Switzerland, attracted
political and business leaders from around the world. The Chinese
delegation used the meeting as an opportunity to hammer home one key point:
the Chinese renminbi yuan would not be devalued. The question of Chinese
devaluation has been the most important issue in the world since the
meltdown of Asia's other economies last year. Pressure on both the Chinese
yuan and the Hong Kong dollar have been heavy as Asian trading partners had
their currencies implode. The general Asian currency decline has made
Chinese goods more expensive than competing Asian goods, cutting exports to
the region and elsewhere, while increasing the attractiveness of regional
imports. At issue has been the effect of declining cash in-flows from
Chinese exports. If we are correct in assuming that China's internal debt
structure resembles that of the rest of Asia, then the increasingly
expensive yuan relative to other Asian currencies, will slash exports.
This will trigger a debt crisis, as debtors, unable to cover debt payments
from export sales, default on their debts, triggering a banking crisis.
If, on the other hand, China devalues the yuan this will dramatically
increase pressure on the rest of Asia increasing the downward cycle as well
as impeding new foreign investment in China. In addition, the Chinese are
obsessed with the Hong Kong dollar, fearing that a devaluation of the yuan
would send Hong Kong crashing, with disastrous effects on China.

Chinese officials therefore spent the week both in Davos and at home
delivering a single message: the yuan would not be devalued. Pointing to a
capital surplus of $34 billion last year, Chinese officials were trying to
convince Western investors of two things. First, they were arguing that
the Chinese economy is sufficiently robust to emerge from the crisis
unscathed, and that Western investors and creditors should not cut and run.
Second, they were arguing that since China was not going to devalue,
pressure would not be placed on other Asian countries and that, therefore,
the worst of the crisis was over.

The problem, of course, is the effect the expensive yuan would have on
Chinese exports and economic growth. Chinese vice premier Li Lanqing
argued that China would have to reduce its trade surplus if it was going to
hold the line on the yuan. Li argued that there was enough foreign
currency cushion to permit a downturn in exports: "even if the growth rate
in our export might be somewhat dented, we would still maintain the
stability of exchange rates of the rmb." Thus, Li seemed to be making a
prudent economic argument: that China would endure a recession rather than
allow the yuan to decline. He then went on to make an extraordinary claim,
predicting 8% growth in 1998 and 1999 and 7% growth thereafter.

These are the kind of claims that hurt Chinese credibility. If China has
the kind of foreign currency reserves and liabilities Chinese officials
claim, then holding the line on the yuan and accepting declining growth
rates is rational, political considerations notwithstanding. But claiming
that China can both cut exports and sustain 8% growth rates is not only
hard to believe, it is impossible to believe.

Nor do the Chinese themselves seem to believe it. For example, the Chinese
news agency Zhongguo Xinwen She reported last week that "criminal elements"
had spread rumors throughout Guangdong Province of a pending depreciation
of the yuan, triggering panic buying of foreign currencies on the black
market. Calling these actions crimes, the Chinese government promised to
crack down on speculators. Shortly after these incidents, the Bank of
China announced that it would launch what it called, full scale forward
trading in foreign currencies, to allow enterprises to reduce exchange
risk. Already in place on a limited trial basis, it will now be extended
permanently. In short, after condemning illegal speculators, the
government is now prepared to create a safety valve of currency futures
trading. Of course, if it allows currency trading inside of China, it is
unclear how the Chinese government intends to determine the price, save for
open market transactions. But the fact is that panic over devaluation is
spreading in China, with increasing demand for hard currencies. Whether
introduced officially or unofficially, the flight to safe currencies must
severely undermine China's attempts to hold the line.

In the end, bravado at Davos notwithstanding, the question remains the
quality of indebtedness inside of China. Chinese figures on hard currency
reserves are impressive, until we remember that no one, not even the
Chinese government, has a clear idea of the liabilities China has incurred
over its historic expansion. The lack of transparency of the banking system
means that it is impossible to calculate the exposure of the system.
Chinese reserves might be more than enough to protect the integrity of the
banking system and the yuan. Chinese reserves might also be woefully
inadequate. Absolute numbers are impressive but meaningless. Relative
numbers, reserves versus liabilities, are all that really matters.

Our sense remains that the shambles of the Chinese banking systems has
created liabilities far in excess of Chinese cash reserves, which are in
turn substantially less than what is claimed by the government. Faith in
Chinese claims are sorely tested when officials claim that China will
decrease exports but maintain growth, all the while maintaining the yuan's
value. That is less a policy than a prayer. The Chinese are hoping that
they will not have to devalue, since that would bring their own house
crashing down as well as the rest of Asia's. Since they cannot decompress
gradually, they are hoping that bravado will permit them to avoid devaluing
at all. We believe that the longer the Chinese delay, the more difficult
it will be to engage in an orderly retrenchment. Brave words are no
substitute for a sense of reality.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 08:48 - ID#375108)
For those without frames: EBN showing gold down $0.60 ( $301.65 ) and silver unchanged ( $6.24 ) at 0845. Not bad. Gotta go earn a livin...

(Mon Feb 02 1998 08:54 - ID#284250)
Bull markets abound - Globex limit up
Worth a read down a few days.

German Dax sets record high, seen up for 6 months

(Mon Feb 02 1998 09:02 - ID#333131)
Donald, On Russia tax collections
So they are collecting more taxes. The ruble ( new ) went from 4.65 to the dollar at the beginning of 1996 to 6 at the end of 1997. I would hope they would be collecting more of them.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 09:02 - ID#24864)
Aurator re your 0430 Bluff oysters are the best I've ever tasted.
Many years back, I had a few days on Stewart Island and flew back
on a Friday night to Invercargill ( wedged between some fish boxes
bound for Tokyo or somewhere ) . Now, being a NZ town my options
for a meal were limited to FISH DINNER at any one of 23 fish shops
on the main street. So fish dinner it was. The meal was preceded by
a half dozen Bluff oysters which each must have been the size of
a sliced cricket ball. Well salty fresh and just went down smooth
as silk. Battered fish for main seemed an anti-climax.
Thanks for triggering the memory.
Nick@Canberra 0535 I see you are still watching Normandy,
I'm sure you know, but for our upover friends who like to compare
gold stocks, their web site has been developed a bit more recently
at and other reader's may like to
bookmark it. By the way Aurator, did you know their Treasurer used
to do a similar job at TelecomNZ a few years back.
I wonder if Normandy or any big aussie hedgers have plans
to buy back any forwards.
Off the top of my head NDY had a mark to market of A$ 1 billion
unrealized at December 31. NB 5.39 million oz sold forward.
This is worth 61cents a share and it closed today around $1.70.
Also read a link on Kitco late last year that ABX could mount a
cash takeover for NDY, close out it and NDY's forwards and pay
for NDY with just the value of the two companies mark to market.
But Nick, don't worry it could never happen. To Sharefin thanks
for your email when I couldn't get on Kitco.

Happy trading all.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 09:13 - ID#258427)
Spot Silver Up .04
looking pretty good ...go Silver....or .. is it HiYo Silver

(Mon Feb 02 1998 09:18 - ID#258427)
Anybody else getting
The Weather Channel at the top of the frames version ( where PM prices are supposed to be????

(Mon Feb 02 1998 09:22 - ID#26793)
@Carl: tax collections went because the tax on miners is 100%

(Mon Feb 02 1998 09:28 - ID#304163)
I'm getting the racing results, I think. Any good to you?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 09:32 - ID#254269)
Kitco withdrawal symptoms.

Good morning all, I can truly say that it has been almost 48 hours since I have visited this site. General, whenever you leave this site, you have to make sure you put someone in charge. There's no telling what those llittle Kitcoites will get up to, without some adult supervision. ( silly grin thing )

(Mon Feb 02 1998 09:34 - ID#258427)
Lobengula...Seriously, I'm
getting the weather channel....I upgraded to Netscape 4 last Friday I don't know what the H... is going on...wah, wah, I want my pm quotes back ( and up to date ) ....

(Mon Feb 02 1998 09:39 - ID#304163)
I'm serious too. Not getting anything right now, sort of pm black hole.....

(Mon Feb 02 1998 09:40 - ID#284250)
It doesn't get better than this.
Dow up over 100 in the first 10 minutes.
Up/down volume @ 20:1

Smells like a blow-off-up.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 09:41 - ID#26793)
Repost: Exuberant market, inflation worries = surprise rate hike?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 09:42 - ID#258427)
@Sharefin...Did you see
what happened in Asia last night ... up10-15% ...Big Blow-off..

(Mon Feb 02 1998 09:49 - ID#254269)
Korean market down on Monday with high interest rates .

(Mon Feb 02 1998 10:00 - ID#284250)
Euphoric bull leg.
Yes, amazing is all I can say.
Are the markets running on fundamentals or sentiment?
Todays market internals are the most bullish since the Oct up-crash.
Looks like we are going to get a mania blowoff.
How high who knows.
Imagine the Dow going up 20% in a few weeks.
The faster/higher these markets rise,
The quicker/harder they will fall.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 10:02 - ID#413109)
URLs For Robert @Atlanta
If you send me your email I'll forward you my URLs
which are loaded with sites of all you require in the
way of charts & stuff.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 10:03 - ID#224149)
Dow up------137-----Gold down----1.00 ----Looks like Gold Bid will be weak for the week ----Away shorting Gold

(Mon Feb 02 1998 10:10 - ID#254269)
WSJ articles;
1. South KOrea shits 10 merchant banks. Page A16
2.. Indonesia assures creditors that debtors are'nt off the hook. Page A16.
3. Belgian bank mergers. Page A16.
4. Russia sets big increase in bank rate. Page A16.
5. Pergrine liquidation may take years. Page A16.
6. Doubts increasing for the Rouble. Is it next ? Page A17.

Steve - Perth
(Mon Feb 02 1998 10:10 - ID#284177)
Steve Blizards specially edited: NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA

Australias Constitutional Convention Home Page - Live

Wool industry rocked as exports to Asia dry up

Russia & Brazil on short list

Japan construction $72B in bonds

Imports trigger shock Aussie deficit


Soros's right-hand man earns his wagers

Investors beware US market dream run

US Arms build up in Gulf

US develops "Bunker Buster" bombs

Israelis promised biological weapon vaccines, while they head for the gasmasks

Fear of further upheaval in Asia dominates Economic forum

China almost certain to devalue currency

Aussie market to Asian tourists die

$10bn Asian fallout

Moody's downgrade: Oz dollar, bonds feel pinch because of Asia

Thin edge of the US Mutual Fund Wedge

The IMF needs a bailout, & the deals to get it

The Asian bug starts to bite the US

Singapore property takes a hit

MAI - A conspiracy theory worth worrying about

Costly lure of Globalisation - Setting the Scene for a Yen bloc

Asian fallout smooths Euro money union

The coming oil shock


Airlines cannot fix Y2K Bug in time ( Jan 15th article )

Taiwan prepares for yuan's fall by June -- just in case

BOOKMARK Steves News Page:
( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )

(Mon Feb 02 1998 10:11 - ID#335184)
Odds remain 50/50 because you must factor in the Elmer Fudd syndrome !
Starr is the master of the "hug & a kiss & wink in the ring". I do not believe he ever intends to draw blood, but another 30 million would be nice ! He will only directly challenge the first prez & boy Bill if one of them get's caught with a person of their gender ( live boy or dead girl ) with pants down on WH lawn.
The Republicans in Congress have no stomach for the kill & really do think politics is just a game of bean bag.
It actually would be of more political advantage for them to leave boy Bill in office in reduced stature rather than elevate Owl Gore to incumbency.
Most unfortunately, the country can't afford this partisan luxury & rest assured, BIllary do not have the class to put national interest ahead of thier pride & ambition, bygoing quietly into the nihgt or with a resolute waive of arm like dick Nixon, as they will only go out feet first horizontal or dragging !
Starr is a nice boy & his lead prosecutor in Little Rock ( Hick Ewing ) is an honest & honerable journeyman prosecutor, so I suupose anything could happen, but I believe Starr is either cowed, incmpetent or compromised in the left wing school of Rockafeller Republicanism who will provide much fury signifying nothing ! I hope I am dead wrong, we'll see !

Good Luck & God Speed,


(Mon Feb 02 1998 10:18 - ID#254269)
Trashing the system; WSJ Editorial page, article about Hillary's attack on the
three judge panel who appointed Starr. Brief Quote " Now what were Ken Starr, Janet Reno or the three judges suppsed to do with this ?
( The Lewinsky tapes and eveidence ) . Quote "Is Mrs C. ( a Yale law graduate ) seriously suggesting that the special panel should have ihnored Reno's letter ?"
Interesting article if anyone can post electronically.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 10:21 - ID#254269)
newtron; you may be right, over the weekend Lewinsky's lawyer was on a bunch

of talkshows and from the glimpses I caught, he seemed to me to be
defending the Prez. What they are trying to do, is confine the discussion to sex and NOT make any reference to the other possible offenses ( perjury, conspiracy etc ) . If they can do that for a while, then they may get B C off the hook.

Mike Stewart
(Mon Feb 02 1998 10:22 - ID#270253)
New Mining Giant ... Where is it???
Has anyone been able to figure out what the ticker symbol is for the new Nasdaq listing of "Gold Fields Limited"? This is the new merger of Kloof, Beatrix, Oryx and part of Dreifontein, St Helena etc. This is the least followed major event in the gold mining industry. It combines the gold assets of Gencor and Gold Fields of South Africa ( GLDFY on Nasdaq ) .

(Mon Feb 02 1998 10:23 - ID#254269)
Bad typing error; my 10.10, mant to say S. Korea SHUTS ten banks. Sorry, Bart.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 10:24 - ID#254269)
Is the White House a "hostile environment for women" , article on Page A22 WSJ.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 10:27 - ID#254269)
WSJ cartoon today page A23. There is a dog on a psychologist's couch and the

caption says, " I feel sorry for Buddy".

(Mon Feb 02 1998 10:31 - ID#335184)
Donald Thanks for being one of the top 5 resourse poster on this most informative venue ! CUDOS &
gratcy ! Thanks for post re Asian contagion history, but mine cut off with oct. Could you re transmit ?
BTW, wouldn't you agree rhat the true inauural event to all of this was the Sino deualuation commencing in 1994 ? I believe round 2 will begin with the next chinese currecy move downward as you can judge from the BS Bell ringing on the decible meter that Bejing will move sooner than
later !
History knows no major devaluation which is not preceded by intense & ernest protestations of public finance ministers that devaluation is the furtherest thing from prospect ! Chinese devaluation could happen any day but, appears to me to me to be inevitable by 3rd Q.

Thanks again,


(Mon Feb 02 1998 10:44 - ID#238295)
this does look like the final blowoff in paper. Dow may hit 8500 or even 9000 in a matter of weeks. But anybody who is not out in tiem will quickly give back those gains amd much more besides.

Bullion off a buck today, but gold stocks up modestly.

Mike Stewart
(Mon Feb 02 1998 11:06 - ID#270253)
Goldfields Quote
I found a closing quote for Goldfields ( or is it Gold Fields? ) from South Africa at 3300 rand. That is about $6 5/8 in US$. It opened weaker after the merger. Kloof was at $3.375 *2.107 conversion = $7.11.

No luck yet on the Nasdaq ticker symbol.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 11:09 - ID#333131)
Old Gold
I agree with your final blow off obsevation. I look at the possible good news ahead vs. bad news. Can the news on inflation get better? no. Worse? You bet. Can earnings get better? Unlikely. Worse? You bet. Can interest rates drop further? Perhaps. Rise from here? Yes, if recovery is in the cards in Europe and/or large amounts of liquidity are needed in Asia. Oil? Who knows? But surprises their do not tend to be pleasant.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 11:11 - ID#284250)
Full Committee Hearing on the East Asian Economic Conditions
Click on the links under the names to view speech's.

Swing chart looking very bullish.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 11:14 - ID#57232)
Final Blowoff? Very likely. Gold/gold stocks likely to rally too.
Old Gold: I think you are right -- this bull market will not give up easily. I think we also have the 'January effect' and the 'sunspot effect' helping this process along. I have found that during times of increasing sunspot activity the market is 1.5 to 2x more likely to go up -- over the last 100 years. But this window is very narrow, and within about six months to a year, the bullish effect fades. The correlation is statistical, because causality may be from some other phenomen -- such as solar electromagnetic activity. Have been too busy to check it out.
I am no Astrologer, but a 20 year ( 18.6year ) tidal activity maximum this month with a total solar ecplise at the end of February may be a turning point. Tidal activity maxima and minima ( without eclipses ) also correspond to broad market turning points over the last 100 years. I could do more, but my fingers got sore transcribing the data.
Given the current state of the world, and my doubts that the SEAsia situation is far from over, I would guess that we will have a market peak at this time. Regardless, I think the end of February will be interesting. And -- I don't think AG will let the dow go much over 8300 anyway. He does not want to make the market bubble any worse than it is right now -- but at the same time he must keep inflating the dollar. As I have said before, I will keep my day job. I don't envy him.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 11:31 - ID#31868)
O'tay, five hours later, a penknife, and never again listen to STUDIO_R, damn snake attaked me in my stupor. Biggest pair of boots you ever seen.

And now, from the Aether:

"You can't swindle an honest man."

Robert A Heinlein

John Disney__A
(Mon Feb 02 1998 11:40 - ID#24135)
For 350$ a year they make typos ????
The article in the MJ had a Typo. So as in my last post DDeep
is only worth 2 1/2 times as much as abx ( and sells at an eighth
the price ) - reserve costs dont change - below 8$/oz. Harmony
is still my pet and its up another 10% today - I like that
mine a lot. Will call DDeeps locally however to find out
about CROWN JEWELS feasibility study apparently for new deep
level mine south of Joberg. Answer to my email to MJ follows.

Dear Mr Disney,

Regarding your e-mail of February 1.

I regret that on checking the figures you mention, I find that there
was a typographical error. The passage should have read "Total proven
reserves in the whole group are estimated at 49 million tonnes...".
Taking this rather more reasonable figure, together with surface
reserves, comes to the stated figure of around 486,000 kg of contained

I do apologise for the error, and thank you for bringing it to my
attention. I will ensure that it is corrected in the February edition.

Please contact me if there is any other information that you require.


Jane Smythson
Deputy Editor, The Gold Service.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 11:55 - ID#340459)
CBS Market watch gives 304.50 Spot, I think frames are incorrect

(Mon Feb 02 1998 11:58 - ID#340459)
Go Gold Go, about time too....

(Mon Feb 02 1998 12:01 - ID#254269)
Noon Dow at 8057 (up 151 points), volume 346 million shares. It could go over 700 million today.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 12:04 - ID#31868)
John Disney_A
Give em hell!!!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 12:10 - ID#26793)
@Newtron; Asian Chronology repost

(Mon Feb 02 1998 12:13 - ID#254269)
Nationwide strikes coming in Korea ?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 12:15 - ID#339274)
The Dow Jones Industrials will hit the 16000 this summer.
Due to the failure of the ECU monetary system and the Japanese
starting in April, can invest in foreign markets.Look at the
chart the Dow is ready to break to the upside. It is still not gold's turn.The gold stocks will slide just as fast when the DOW goes down ,hitting an enormous liquidity crunch.Gold stocks will climb
out of the hole next winter when they deliver a good return ( dividends
This is of course only my opinion.: ) Happy trading

(Mon Feb 02 1998 12:15 - ID#258427)
G;ood buying interest in Silver today ...
up .11 and keeps climbing...Go SSC ( dad-blame-it ) ....

(Mon Feb 02 1998 12:17 - ID#26793)
European gold news from this morning

(Mon Feb 02 1998 12:25 - ID#333131)
The one month lease rate for silver reached 11% today.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 12:25 - ID#31868)

(Mon Feb 02 1998 12:25 - ID#26793)
French banks most at risk to Asia; Germans a close second

(Mon Feb 02 1998 12:28 - ID#26793)
Asian risk by country. Note Japan!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 12:32 - ID#358318)
Mike Stewart: Gold Fields
The Nasdaq search page -
lists "Gold Fields of South Africa Limited" as GLDFY. That's the only
one it comes up with starting with "Gold Fields".

Stock Quote for Gold Fields of South Africa ADRS ( GLDFY ) at

They are also listed at
as GLDFY along with several other SA stocks. You can also find the list
by going to and following links to the Reference section.

The only one listed under 1997 is RANGY, Randgold & Exploration Company, Limited - GLDFY is listed under 12/25/70.

Perhaps the merger you refer to isn't listed yet ( at least not on the open Nasdaq web server ) . Perhaps you have the name wrong. You would do better contacting the company or Nasdaq direct.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 12:39 - ID#253228)
In general I agree with your prediction, more so on gold than the DOW.
I think the DOW could be at a factor of 1.5 x its present value in this blowoff top. I see gold at a bottom in late April, early May.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 12:40 - ID#28585)
With Wall Street surging this morning, sources say the Prez is extremely heartened by the new turn of events.

"It only goes to show," a beaming BC told close friends, "when the Prez acts in a lewd, depraved manner with young girls and completely undermines the trust and faith Americans place in him...when countries around the world are experiencing full-scale economic debacles...when the mutual funds are almost completely depleted of available cash...only then does Wall Street really roar its approval. After all, heck, the interest rates are low...what else really matters? What a helluva great country we live in!!"

Sources further state that BC is holding lengthy meetings with senior economic advisors in order to map out new strategies to maintain today's Wall Street boom.

According to friends of the Prez, his key economic advisors are trying to figure out how to instigate new economic crises in other regions of the world.

An anonymous source stated, "Hell, it turns out that the economic collapse of Asia and Latin America has never been better for Wall Street.
We're hoping to devise new strategies to wreak economic havoc in France, Italy, Britain, Germany, etc...any country that seems stable, we want to undermine their economy in order to maintain the great Wall Street vertical climb.

"Foreign financial institutions collapsing...foreign investors and consumers in mass hysterical panics, hoarding goods and committing's all a great thing 'coz always remember, IT KEEPS THE DAMN INTEREST RATES LOW HERE IN AMERICA AND THE YEAR END WALL STREET BONUSES HIGH!!

"The best thing about these foreign collapses is we get to print loads and loads of IMF funny money...then what we do is we get a bunch of investment bankers together, we fly over with suitcases filled with the newly printed green, we hand the stuff over to all those poor suffering, dumb-as-doorknob, "no-speakee-zee- English," bastards, and then we just eat it up while they slobber all over us and kiss our grand American asses! It's really a lotta fun and beats the hell outta fighting Canadians over their lousy salmon!"

With Wall Street in full throttle boom again, sources state that BC remains optimistic that, no matter what the outcome of the Lewinsky scandal, there will be a nice cushy, lucrative job at an investment house awaiting him after he relinquishes his office.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 12:44 - ID#287358)
Negative Barons Article

Since the negative barons article the golds stocks haven't rallied. Most stocks are sitting on supports. The xau may break down by day end. Woulldn't want to hold any high cost miners.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 12:50 - ID#318118)
Where can I find some detailed #'s on DROOY. It seems to be a problem finding much on ADR's here in USA. John Disney-Do you know of a site on line that would have the info?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 12:51 - ID#270295)
Up another 10% .....Anyone else watching??? Finally something that moves!!! Band-Ore in toronto.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 12:59 - ID#339274)
April 20
Jeil: April 20 as the bottom for physical gold,the stocks
will hit bottom later,totally overpriced.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:00 - ID#335184)
pace to outstrip the record 230 police deaths in 1974 !
"HOLY GOSH Bat Man, I'm sure glad that Janet Reno's ( read Hillary's ) Justice has reported a dramatic drop in violent crime each year for the last 5 years ! I sure feel safer ! I just hope & prey that other US Government statistics like, oh say, the CPI & boy Bill's popularity ratings are just as accurate !"


(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:06 - ID#31868)
If you are nice I am sure John Disney can provide all that you seek.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:15 - ID#269409)
@ Aurator
A thanks to you and monsiuer Sheller. The anser to the question is epiphany. A spiritual awakening. A response to direction given from beyond myslef. You know I speak from sincerity since I have been a rather noisy voice for rationalism ( which I still embrace ) .

Now, with God's influence in my life, how will I prevent my dialogue here from becoming too boringly agreeable?? ;- )

(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:16 - ID#269409)
Silver is going up faster than Bill CLinton's approval ratings! Maybe more scandal is what it needs!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:17 - ID#373336)
@tolerant 1/John Disney
tolerant 1-I thought that might be the case. Thanks

John Disney- Any detailed numbers you could provide on DROOY would
be appreciated. My e-mail address:

(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:22 - ID#317193)
I believe we are all witnessing HISTORY being made at this time. Problem is, there is no telling what this bubble is going to do! If the DJI breaks 8300 I would be much more impressed. My cash stays on the sideline until the elasticity of this bubble can be shown. AG, the slow slide down for this market may not be possibe with this level of exuberance. I hope for the sake of all of us that any "correction" does not end up looking like 1929. Wonder if I've got the guts to go short tomorrow?? Doubt it. Tom

(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:22 - ID#253228)
Our work is apparently close on shares. I posted a comment as to method at 1:13 this AM. I show two lows in Homestake this year. The first at the $1 - $2 range in late April early May. The second at $5 in Nov Dec. If the first objective is met then I think an intervening rally into August at $9 is likely. My projections are not as stable as I would like. I've been at this since 1982. Have identified about 400 cycles and run recalculations in a loop almost continuously except for time to stop and add new data points. Have had some really good results and a few disasters, but in general have been getting better and better.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:23 - ID#254269)
Dow at 8080 at 1.25 pm est, (up 179 points) ,volume 448 million shares.

Steve in TO__A
(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:24 - ID#209265)
Pure silver plays
Dear folks,

Does anyone in the group know of companies that represent a pure, or almost pure, silver mining investment? So much silver is mined as a byproduct of other major minerals that it's hard to find companies that derive most of their oncome from silver.

Thanks in advance,
Steve Ross

(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:25 - ID#93232)
bad snake make good boot.

bernatz du ventadorm
(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:28 - ID#259191)
Oooooohhhhhld Maaaaaan, come out and play

Ted - Dow to 8300 when it gets to 8300.
Three months off isn't too bad, and a lot
better than anyone else at this site.
I see Old Gold is gearing up the blowoff
talk again. My advice is to blowoff his
blowoff advice. He's been wrong before,
I haven't been wrong yet.

You all's call.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:28 - ID#34883)

(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:30 - ID#365216)
Randy Weaver book
Randy Weaver has announced he will be marketing a book on
Ruby Ridge in order to warn the public of an out of control
government. See CNN article:

Silver, you go girl!!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:34 - ID#320441)
When it's good, it's very, very good...
FDPMX moves near the head of the class of PM funds ( and all funds, actually ) for 1998:

(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:35 - ID#250121)
Hitch-Hiking down the road to Damascus~~~~~~~~~~


Marvellous! Epiphany *and* Rationalism. Now, as I see it, there is a simple and universal rationality of cause and effect. It is the basis of science and other religions. For there is little to separate science and religion apart from explanations for the universal law of cause and effect. Therefore always make sure you take your reason for a walk around the comforting courage of your convictions.

There is one other possibility, to explain this change in LGB, if you lose the power of reason while harmonising with your view of the universe, you may have been lobotomised while you were abducted by aliens the other week.


(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:37 - ID#246224)
Am interested in a private conversation. Please email me at .

(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:38 - ID#246224)
That's ..

(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:38 - ID#41229)
Where is all the money coming from driving up the markets? If asia was up big, us markets are up quite a bit, u.s. bond market going down meaning buying, I'm I confused or does not the money going into all these paper vehicles have to be coming out of some other paper vehicle, I'm I to ASSume that the fund traders put alot of funds into the money market awaiting for an opportunity to get in, or is this merely more dirivatives leading ( manipulating ) the market? Has there been market FLUXuations @ these levels before?

John Disney__A
(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:39 - ID#24135)
Anybody know a site with data on deeps??
For tsclaw
I dont know a site but Im sure some others do -
Ive got their quarterly report in my desk and the
data on them in the Mining Journal.
They have the following stock
39 mill ord, 2.56 mil preferred, 2.6mil options and
8.9 mill b options. The options are 2003 I think and
strike 11$. Options arent an issue anyway as cash comes
into company when they exercise.
Life of mine reserves is 15 mill oz.
breakdown operations - underground 3309 kg loss 38 r/t
sand 1289 kg prof 12.5
open cast 485 kg prof 2.5

I calculate they lost $0.13/share at a gold price
of about 305-310 - thus they must have average cost
around $330/oz. These costs are being steadily reduced.
There's a lot of interest in this company. I think
its way undervalued but It has a way to go in
getting its costs down. I suggest that you also look
a harmony for comparison purposes. Harmony produces
745 thou oz vs DD 285, has lower costs amd about the
same number of shares - 49 mill. The MJ states They
have increased their ore reserves to 70 mill oz from
20 mill oz over last 2 years via acquisitions. 13.1
is proven/probable. I own a lot of Harmony and no
deeps. My own interest in deeps is academic. I also
like and own randfontein. They are making money last
2 quarters at low gold prices.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:42 - ID#287207)
Deep Data
Some ( sometimes out of date ) data are avaiable for many SA mines including DD here:

(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:43 - ID#57232)
I'm impressed!
LGB: Are you sure you are the same person? It is like we are conversing with two different people! I agree with Aurator - please don't take any rides with inquisitive Aliens! We like the way you are right as you are right now!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:44 - ID#93232)
@bernatz (tarzan).......
The 24-Hour GOLD SPOT Price chart to your left ( frames version ) looks like my heart monitor....when is it going to move north ( and my pulse return ) ? I don't need anymore info. than that, screw the Dow, bonds, beets, etc. Thank you.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:47 - ID#339274)
P/E ratio
Jeil : Have a look at the close of 1974 and see the different
senior gold mines what kind of a p/e ratio they had.
most were running between 4 to 5 times with a 10% dividend.
Those same shares rose in 1975 4 times on average.
I use different cycles for the gold and stocks.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:55 - ID#238295)
refer: It doesn't always take a lot of money to move markets. Just changing expectations. For example when a company comes out with much better than expected earnings, the stock will usually OPEN much higher before any trading has taken place at all. Markets always reflect the combined impact of money flows and shifting expectations.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:57 - ID#250121)
~~~it means food down here~~~I'm no cannibal like gastronomer meister~~~
You were the first to defend LGB when he thought he was being locked out of kitco. ( it was just a misunderstanding ) and I was at your side at once. I always appreciate your posts despite, or perhaps because of our differences. Good to see you and LGB standing together. Appreciate you asked for off-line ;- ) )

off to have some tucker

bernatz du ventadorm
(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:57 - ID#259191)
Su-su-sudio R. It already done moved north since 277.25

And it is done moving north for a while. I am very disappointed
in this site. Few of you took my advice and posted cogent,
curt comments about gold. For that you will be punished.

But remember, $277.25 plus or minus $5 and/or 5 ( now three )
weeks. The end is near, but Miro will lose all his profits
again first.


John Disney__A
(Mon Feb 02 1998 13:57 - ID#24135)
For tsclaw =
Email if you need more info.

For false bernatz - UN peacekeeping forces not around. I say
sp500 to 1045 then take puts. I said this months ago. Im
always right . Change your moniker. Doesnt suit you. Bernatz
had a sense of humour, class, amd intelligence. You have only
an arrogant mouth - grow up or leave. Woops here come the
the blue berets - Im outta here

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:02 - ID#57232)
I was confused also -- the money is coming from somewhere
refer: Could be derivatives profits, or all the 'baby boomer' reirement, etc money that was held back in the fall of 1997. The US economy did very well in 97.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:03 - ID#333131)
General, (Just some foolishness)
Your reference to silver as a girl - "Go girl." She's kind of a mixed case. Silver is masculine in French ( argent ) and in Italian ( argento ) . It's neuter in German ( Silber ) and Yiddish ( zilber ) and Swedish ( silver ) . However, it's feminine in Spanish ( plata ) .

bernatz du ventadorm
(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:04 - ID#259191)
Hi Oddman

Sorry, I have a code.

Hey John "Wacky" Disney - I told you already I wanted
my old handle back. Can you impose on BK to give it
back to me? The old Bernatz is dead, long live the old

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:07 - ID#318118)
@ John Disney
I'm forever indebted. Thank you!!!

Steve in TO__A
(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:12 - ID#209265)
When will gold go up & stay up?
There's a reason why the graph over to the left looks like a heartbeat on an ecg. Just like in a muscle cell where sodium rushes in, triggering a rush of potassium out, resulting n the ecg "spike," whenever a bunch of longs come in buying gold, a bunch of shorts react by selling it.

Who the shorts are is the major question. Is it central banks or government agencies trying to manipulate the market as part of a Plunge Protection effort, as some contend, or is there simply a large number of gold bears who see an opportunity to get in on an uptick, drive the price down a couple of bucks, and then laugh all the way to the bank with their day trading profits? A retired fellow who had been a floor trader and a broker said they used to call this "taking out the stops." In particular, they know that if they can get the price to cross round-number price points a lot of peoples' stops will get filled, creating further momentum downward. Floor traders n particular have the advantage of having an up-to-the-second picture of what the volume and sentiment is like as the orders come in.


(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:17 - ID#228100)
Source of Money
All of this money is coming into the market for two reasons:
1. Printin Clinton ( the feds ) are pumping out so much money.
2. Where else can a common schmuck put his life savings? In a savings account that pays 2%? In 30 year bonds that pay a measly 5%? The average guy on the street hears that theres better money to be made in the market, and just cant find a better choice.

Of course, we PM types know better!!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:18 - ID#57232)
Your final bottom?
bernatz -- er -- Hepcat: Your final gold bottom is in 3-5 weeks? That is interesting because my cyclic data suggests a major turning point at the end of February. Would be interesting if we had a major market correction at that time, pulling down gold for the last time. I doubt that all the gold bears and CB's in distress have been shaken out. I think one item that may change all that could be a war in the Gulf -- but that does not seem likely for a month or so. We would look like fools starting a war unilaterally with Saddam -- I think.

You need to tell us how you make your predictions -- by thinking about that you may get even better.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:19 - ID#364147)
Bernatz and another Dow crash-UP(where's Puetz these days??)
Bernatz: Me bein a money-BUG and notta gold-BUG,I say go Dow go!!...After selling approx.50% of my conventional stox in the past three months my remaining portfolio consists of XON,SBC,PNY,BGC,CNG,HE and SIG ( all held in DRIP ( because I am a DRIP! ) ....

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:20 - ID#41229)
Old Gold @ Volume
By your statement, it then could be estimated by volume + price ratio , whether money taken out of the market is driving it back up. Unless I'm totally off base, which would not be a first for me; when markets were going down in asia, the U.S. paper went up. If everything goes up together, would there not be some new money coming in as a driving force, unless the money taken out was put in a sector not visible. I guess it deals the the leveraging of the funds, with derivatives it seems to take away the transparency of the markets. 2+2 no longer = 4 it could = 80

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:21 - ID#344308)

ok can have your old nomer back-----alas....

hep-rat-------there......are you satiated?

just love to be spanked don't had your
chance.....every-body was real sweet........then 'it'
escaped again.......sigourney weaver ejected 'it' from
the space-ship......c' can ejectae tam-bien...non?
make sure the lights are out, would'nt want mommy catching
you and the ejectae------again......

mr hep-rat.......the critter with-out love.....sniff..sniff...honk!
...BUT KITCO LOVES YA!!!!!!! har-har-har-hardee-har-har-har---honk!


(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:22 - ID#93232)
7.12% APR currently ( avg. 7.3% '97 ) Van Kampen Prime Rate Trust....pays monthly like a slot. Try it you'll like it.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:24 - ID#333131)
As you probably remember, the 70's gold mine shares were in two widely seperate tiers. The SA shares, which had extraordinary yields, and all the rest, due to the phobia against South Africa. And what delicious yields they were! ( with US foreign tax credits to boot ) They paid my 5 childrens' way through college.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:24 - ID#410194)
Regarding your post of last night ( 20:49 ) regarding the CRB Index going up.

Usually, late January and February are prime time frames for seasonal bottoms in a bunch of commodities.

Furthermore, a lot is happening right now globally and once or twice in every generation, "tangible assets" gain an amazing amount of popularity despite their fundamentals.

In the last severe inflation phase of the seventies, commodity prices got ahead of any logical explanations and fundamentals because the psychology made the commodities valuable investment vehicles.

With the "paper" gains difficult to sustain at the rate of the past few years and with some visible subtle signs of a major change in the global psychology, it is time too look at the possibility of seeing most of the commodities gaining back their popularities! They are extremely cheap.

The almost unanimous call for major deflation is what awakened the most astute and wise traders/investors because it is a perfect timing for having the opposite to develop.

While many crowd followers and emotional unsuccessful traders tend to keep shouting at prices to go down because of "this" and "that", figures speak and when looking at the charts, prices of most commodities seem to have already started to go in the opposite direction, upwards that is!

This development is very, very long term though. Almost too subtle for those who are making unrealistic internet predictions. But that what trading and investing is all about. Very few get the opportunity to grab the huge amounts of possible profits.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:28 - ID#368244)
Dow versus GOLD

The investor in the dow looks for every reason to buy, the investor , producer, and everyone involved with metals looks for every reason to sell, gonna be wrong this time.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:28 - ID#375108)
Silver threads among the Au...
Steve in TO_A: Regarding your query about a silver miner, have you checked out Pan American Silver ( PAA on Toronto, PAASF on Nasdaq ) ? As I am not a broker or in "the business", this is not intended as either a recommendation or a pan, tho' I own a few. Hi Ted!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:30 - ID#287207)
Bank of France and Mr Munk Agree
It's not their fault:

Monday Feb 2 1998
The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday, February 2, edition that
Barrick Gold chairman Peter Munk got part of what he wanted from
his weekend appearance at the World Economic Forum when he
drew a reassurance from the governor of the Bank of France that
the world's third largest holder of gold doesn't plan to sell any of its
holdings. The Globe's Alan Freeman writes that bank governor
Jean-Claude Trichet said he has no intention of selling any gold. He
also said he understands that Germany and Italy don't plan any gold
sales either. Mr Munk, who has been campaigning for central
bankers to reaffirm their faith in gold, argued that the main factor in
the slide in the price of gold has been investors' concerns about
whether central banks were about to dump part of their huge gold
reserves on the market. Mr Munk said that by not speaking out in
defence of gold, central bankers are allowing speculators to push
down the price of gold even though there is no justification for a
lower price, purely on the basis of supply and demand.
( c ) Copyright 1997 Canjex Publishing Ltd.

| Previous | Next | Respond |

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:33 - ID#364147)
Hi Maritimer ( grin thing ) ........Back to # crunchin for Revenu Canada ( uggg ) ~~~~~~~~go team gold!

Steve in TO__A
(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:37 - ID#209265)
When will gold go up & stay up?

My last post didn't really address the subject, so here's the 2nd part: gold will go up and stay up when the bears get cold feet and won't take the short side except at higher prices!

So what? That's almost as informative as saying that house prices will go up when people are willing to pay more for houses : )

The real question is what will give the bears a long-term case of cold feet? One thing that will do it is a massive short overhang like that presently occurring in silver, where the total open interest, just on the COMEX alone, dwarfs the amount of silver physically available. This makes the exit door very small for bears trying to get out quickly in the case of a short squeeze, and bears are always checking out the exits. This is unlikely to happen very quickly in gold, though.

Another thing that will do it is a psychological shift where sentiment shifts overwhelmingly toward gold, and the buying volume is just too big for the bears to tackle, given their finite resources for going short. Again in silver, lease rates have become unreasonable, and the bears can't really use that route to attack silver anymore. Gold lease rates are still pretty good, though. One thing that would really open the floodgates would be for Asian governments, individuals or companies to decide that their flight capital should be going into gold rather than "foreign currency reserves," mostly $US. The US & German gov'ts have been leaning heavily on the Asian countries not to buy gold, probably to retain the illusion of currency reserves being "as good as gold."

That's the kind of thing that will cause gold to rise ( or dollars to drop, depending on your perspective. ) Keep your eyeballs peeled. You'll be able to see the signs.

Steve Ross

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:39 - ID#238295)
A very shrewd observations!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:40 - ID#340459)
(No way but Up from now )

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:42 - ID#339274)
Carl: Those times are coming again,every investor has been brainwashed
not to invest in metals or gold,Psychologically he /she is unable to make
the switch. There is lots of time to board the goldtrain as long you got
cash,not paper.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:45 - ID#238295)
CB shorts?
Steve: Very cogent reasoning!

With all the Cb gold selling and leasing that has gone on in recent years, I wonder how many high CB officials have shorted the yellow in their personal accounts. Quite a few I suspect.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:48 - ID#93232)
@Steve Ross (in TO)......
My eyes are peeled, crossed and strained. Kinda' like a pup passin' a peach pit...
Seriously dough, I do appreciate your comments...let's scare some shorts.

Carpe Aurem
(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:49 - ID#339292)
@Steve in TO re Pure Ag
There's a few Steve in TO. Have a look at

Sunshine Mining ( SSC.N )

Coeur d'Alene Mines ( CDE.N )

Hecla Mining ( HL.N )

Prime Resources ( PRU.T )

Pan American Silver ( PAA.T )

Silver Standard Resources ( SSO.V )

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:49 - ID#340459)
304.90 on CBS marketwatch

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:51 - ID#254269)
Dow at 8099 (up 192 points ) with one hr. to go, volume 568 million shares.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:53 - ID#287207)
John Disney: Just finished looking through some SA gold info I had in the early 1980's. Do you know what happened to "Venterspost" and is Cons Moder still functioning?

Steve in TO__A
(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:54 - ID#209265)
Novice, thank you
Thank you for the tip on PAASF, I'm looking 'em up.

Also, to follow up on the issue of Asian governments being pressured to not buy gold- I'm now convinced that the Korean ( and Thai ) efforts to collect privately-held gold was a dodge to boost their reserves without inviting retaliation from the US & the Europeans.

The Koreans collected it supposedly to sell, but Korea has now announced that it is "delaying" sale of the 17 MTonnes collected so far. Wouldn't surprise me if they never sell it, and quietly add it to their reserves once nobody is paying attention.


(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:55 - ID#375108)
Me, I'm Under-enDOWed
Ted: With a revived bull, a great day to be DRIPpy on Wall Street, eh? Eases the pain of the wounded Canuck buck somewhat. Gold rising at the close...

(Mon Feb 02 1998 14:58 - ID#93232)
@OOoooohhhhh Teddo........???
Did you eat some bad figs...or what??? Ifin' you don't start hypin' these markets more than you have here lately....I swear... I'm goin' stage THE FLAMING HAMBURGER EATIN' GOLD MONK demonstation in front the local Pru-Bache office...and then how will you feel mister!!!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:01 - ID#57232)
Thank you
Realistic: Thanks for the hint on the commodity price index. A flight to hard assets makes sense at this time when the equities market is in the stratosphere, but earnings aren't. I am slowly learning about commodities trading, as they bear much similarity to gold ( when the CB elephants leave it alone ) . Am getting the "Past Present Futures" newsletter.

By the way, I have noticed that during last 100 years, during the time of the most rapid rise in sunspot activity, commodity prices tend to rise. I have no solid etiology for this -- just a correlation. And -- that is what is happening right now. I am a little rusty on historical price trends on the commodity price index, but I think we have been in a long-term plateau for some time. As I recall, a long term commodites bull market should be coming soon -- good for gold.

What I really find confusing is how to factor in the effect of SEAsia. I don't know it that is bullish or bearish for commodities. I would be interested in your comments.

Steve in TO__A
(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:02 - ID#209265)
ThanQ again
Carpe Aurem,

Thanks for the mine tips too. Please keep 'em coming!

Does anybody know something about First Silver Reserve ( FSR on the VSE ) ?


(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:09 - ID#273368)
Gold Hangs on to $300.00 support, that is my bench mark.
if gold drops below $300.00 I'm out and if Eldorado drops below $1.00 I'm also out.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:09 - ID#273368)
Gold Hangs on to $300.00 support, that is my bench mark.
if gold drops below $300.00 I'm out and if Eldorado drops below $1.00 I'm also out.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:10 - ID#238295)
XAU action
NEM down a point today, dragging down XAU. Other majors up slightly. But modest volume does not augur well for a big rally in the near future.

Carpe Aurem
(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:11 - ID#339292)
Squeeze, Peter. Squeeeeeeze!
APPARENTLY...Peter Munk got committments from the French CB to NOT sell any gold. Furthermore, the Frenchies insisted that they stand united on that front with German and Italian CB's. If that's true that sounds significant to me. These three CB's are ( according to my most recent GFMS numbers ) responsible for approximately 7,600 tonnes of the 27,800 tonnes in CB reserves ( or 34,000 in total above-ground reserves ) . That's 27% of CB reserves ( or 22% of total reserves ) in friendly hands.

You see...Mr. Munk really does care!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:12 - ID#93232)
In order that I may be whole again.....this is all I need.......
I need Iraq to obliterate Fort Knox with a nuclear bomb laced with mad cow disease. That's it! Ziva???

(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:15 - ID#411149)
Selby- Cons Modder is owned by Harmony, probably one of the reasons
it is up a bunch today. Cons Modder is the RICHEST gold deposit in
SA and Harmony has the resources {MONEY ) to develop it.

JTF- better watch that PPF letter! He gave his strongest BUY on gold shares late OCT 97 and then said well hell bad call. Ouch!

Would somone please tell me who with silver up 10cents, CDE, SSFIF, and SSC are all DOWN. PAASF was only up a bit.

John Disney- love that Harmony!!!

Tally Ho

(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:19 - ID#287207)
KMTMAN: The last time I owned Eldorado about 18 months or so ago it was about $8 and had just started to get a lot of properties from a big SA mining house some of which were operating mines as I recall. Why is it down to $1 and why would you sell if it continues to go down?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:21 - ID#287207)
Ray: I take it that Cons Modder no longer trades by itself. What is the symbol for Harmony?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:22 - ID#57232)
I know
Ray: Thanks - I have made big mistakes following newsletters, and he apparently did call the gold bear correctly, but I am a bit gunshy these days, so I did not bite on his buy recommendation. I use his newletter mostly to learn about commodities cycles, not for specific buy and sell points, where he has been less than stellar.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:23 - ID#93232)
HGMCY Nasdaq

John Disney__A
(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:23 - ID#24135)
Colonel Kurtz SPEAKS
Apocalypse NOW for you Beer Nuts
Where are those peacekeepers ??- You wanna make calls -
OK 1 sp500 to 1045 then take PUTS
2. While you mess around scratching for a bottom
in GOLD and hynotizing yourself with silver on its
way to 6.55, Well now WATCHOUT for platinum for a move
to 425.
You make predictions?? - I can even JUMP higher
than you can, fella.
Im outta here - back into Cambodia, cmon Montignards.
Oh for Carpe Aurum -
Yeah Munk cares - until he gets out of his stock.
XAU - ShmeXAU - Harmony's up 14 per cent. Somebody else
made some numbers too.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:24 - ID#368244)
Those amazing paper markets

Tain't it amazin how a country can be broke one week, and it's markets go up 70% the next. Someones gotta teach me that trick. Hummmm!!!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:24 - ID#252150)
Who do you think will be buying the physical commodities with seasia
in such a crippled state financially? Do you have a feel for where copper is going-I'm short a copper stock?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:27 - ID#28585)
The Prez is reportedly overcome with joy as he watches Wall Street soar to new stratospheric heights.

"They love me...they really love me," he is quoted as telling close friends. "And I love them...and I want to love even more of them, if you know what I mean ( wink! wink! ) .

Even Clinton's partner in crime, Greenspan, is reportedly dumb with amazement.

"The entire world's a F___ing mess. They can't even afford to eat in Asia or Latin America...let alone buy American cars or computers. Irag's ready to unleash chemical warfare on Israel. Russia and China are threatened with imminent economic chaos...European banks are writing off billions in bad loans...Canada and Australia are in free fall currency collapse...virtually every American corporation reporting earnings is warning of major problems in the next quarter...I don't know whether we're in the start of a major deflation or a super hyper-inflation...I'm pouring gazillions of dollars of funny money into the banking system daily...basically, I don't know my ass from my elbow... and to top it all off, I'm working under a president who's more interested in boffing his daughter's girlfriends than in helping me figure out what the hell's going on here!!!"

Sources confirm that Clinton is planning a visit to Wall Street at the close of the session to hand out special presidential commemorative medallions with the message, "I BOUGHT STOCK IN AMERICA TODAY...I MUST BE AN ABSOLUTE MORON!"

(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:30 - ID#375108)
CDN by birth, Southern by the grace of..
Ray: Silver shinin' but most Ag stox down. Who would want precious metals stocks when they could have a dandy bank ( what bad debts? ) ...

(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:31 - ID#410194)
As dramatic as the Sout-East Asian situation is, for all practical purposes it looked like a few weeks ago that the worst was over and it still looks the same today.

Trading and investing is so complex that we really have to learn to think in a way that we are not used to.

Remember just a few weeks ago when we were in the middle of the worst possible scenarios unfolding in Asia and almost everybody started to become aware of the dramas. That's when a "shift" occured and on a graph, the equities charts of those countries reflect what took place since then: they recovered greatly. Of course, there will be some corrections along the way but a re-visit of their lows is unlikely at this time.

So when too many people get a hold of a situation from the internet, news media, etc, the opposite already started to occur but in a way that very few people can notice.

Let's remember just a couple of weeks ago when Clinton was really supposed to be out of office by "the week-end" or "in 2 weeks at the most". A few posters even called that shot very clearly here on this site adding that the long awaited downturn in the Dow has arrived. Again, at the peak of the emotional and tumultuous calls for the worst to happen, the opposite already started to take place then! The very few who bought into the emotions of the most ( those predicting Clinton to be out within 2 weeks and for the equities to finally tank ) have made lots of profits since then! Isn't it what we as traders and investors want to do, make money?

The Asian situation has now been factored into the markets and even in an exagerated way! It doesn't mean that no commodities will go dowm from here on in but those that will decrease in values, will do so for other reasons that will have nothing to do with what happened in Asia!

Trading and investing require a very special and complex thinking and there is absolutely no room for emotions! And the best way to learn to become successful at trading is to listen around and pick up on the emotions of the most. The opposite almost always unfold.

By the way, congratulations for your numerous posts here, I always find your messages of various subjects very educational.

In closing, here is a learning experience for all of us.

Believe it or not, the Hang-Seng put in a bottom within minutes from another emotional call ( which reflected the opinion of a lot ) for the worst to happen there. I find Puetz very smart and educated.....but there is a huge part of the puzzle that he misses continuously and that is: there is no place for emotions when it gets to trading and investing!

The Hang Seng never stopped recovering within minutes of this post:

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:05
Puetz ( ) ID#222167:
The s**t just hit the fan. Hong Kong opens down nearly 1000
points. Wanna know the next crisis point - - Hong Kong!

The crash has begun!!!!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:31 - ID#57232)
How about South America?
Carpe Aurum: How much gold left in South American CB's? Argentina just sold 100+ tonnes Dec 97. Probably had to. How about Brazil, etc?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:31 - ID#317193)
farfel-Here-here- very good

(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:37 - ID#252150)
Realistic@Peutz Smart?
If he's been following his own advice he's also broke.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:38 - ID#254269)
Asian crisis contained according to Rubin.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:40 - ID#249147)

Watching the bubble grow in share prices in Europe and the good old US, it is easy to understand how Newton lost his house in the South Sea bubble. They didn't even have the spin capability that we have now. Lying then was done between individuals mainly - not in mass media. But if one is to have a position in stocks, it still has to be long. For me I'll sit in silver and just wait, watch and wander at the madness of crowds.

The whole financial community is banking on keeping the bubble. Who has the pin?


(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:49 - ID#254269)
Realistic; your 15.31, very interesting post. I think you're right in many ways in that.

the internet has greatly enhanced communications and the distribution of information. Once everyone has the same information, then the only advantage is in the interpretation of the information and the execution of a strategy.

John Disney__A
(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:53 - ID#24135)
For selby
See if this works
For RSA stocks in US
Woof - long url - follow Harmony there - 70 mill oz resource - no typos. 50 odd mill shares - thatsa 1.4 oz/share. Nothing like it. and will reduce average costs to below ABX's.

To all
Tomorrow's exercise will be an in depth look at ABX - costs that is.

Charles Keeling
(Mon Feb 02 1998 15:56 - ID#344225)
@ Selby
RE: Trichet saying he does not plan to
sell gold.

That is all he is ALLOWED to say. Then, having
said that, he is free to do as he wishes.

Therefore, this statement is nothing to hang your
hat on. I wish it was!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 16:01 - ID#57232)
Interesting Comments - thanks for your insight!
Realistic: Thanks for the post. I have always wondered why Kitco posters often seem to be temporally out of phase with the markets. The key is to understand cause and effect, and a temporal shift in the emotions of the majority of the individuals who buy and sell, obviously. One must always be one step ahead of the crowd, otherwise you are buying at the top, and selling at the bottom. I am still learning how to avoid this mistake. Part of the reason I still focus on long-term investing is that I still don't have the temporal phase shift bit with the crowd down pat.

What I find fascinating is that the Fibonacci series/Elliot wave stuff is due to the movements of the masses who buy and sell stocks. Something external to the markets drives some of this, but I still have not been able to get my finger on it. Also, wavelet analysis is the way to go to decompose this analytically, but I have not had time to identify the appropriate wavelet set. The Daubuchet ( sp? ) wavelet series is great for decomposition and identification of the Fibonaccie series in the markets, but it is no better than fourier analysis for prediction -- lousy!

I will look for another wavelet series when work permits.

I was watching the gold markets so intently, I did not spot the bottom in the SEAsia markets.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 16:05 - ID#254269)
Dow closed at 8108 (up 201 points or 2.55%), S & P 500 up 21 points, 30 yr. bond at

5.861%, volume on NYSE 729 million shares. Lots of brokerage commissions today !

(Mon Feb 02 1998 16:08 - ID#254179)
@the DOW

I just walked in and turned on my TV and it appears the cable company has a technical problem. They seem to have crossed CNBC with Comedy Central.

The Heng Seng up 14% ?
The DOW up 200 points?

Are they kidding?

Earlier this afternoon PGU was up 30% on the Montreal Exchange. Anyone know where it closed? Gold still above $300!!!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 16:15 - ID#194311)
Derivative driven mayhem....?
Outlook for US banks slips in wake of Asian crisis
NEW YORK, Feb 2 ( AFP ) - The Asian financial crisis continued to
reverberate Monday as the US bond rating agency Moody's placed US
bank JP Morgan on review for a possible downgrade and altered the
outlook of Citicorp and Bankers Trust from stable to negative.
The revised ratings reflected Moody's concern about how the
Asian fallout will affect the banks. Southeast Asia is a major
source of earnings for Citicorp.
Moody's review of JP Morgan will examine the bank's exposure to
the Asian crisis.

I'm just wondering if perhaps what we are winessing is the unwinding of the trillions of dollars in derivative deals. No market in history has been subject to such powerful whipsawing forces as those provided by supercomputers and derivative-trading programs.
As all this money whizzes around searching for the best profit it will inevitably synchronised.....nobody has considered the consequences of coupling to together the hundreds of trading programs and simulating system it stable?

Watch out for more crazy volatility as money rushes from one free ride to the next until the the whole game comes unstuck, first Asia...whose next S.America, E.Europe, W. Europe, N.America?
Market fundamentals mean nothing any's just a numbers crunching contest now.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 16:20 - ID#194311)
back burner boiling over...!
Indonesia rocked by new violence as crisis bites

JAKARTA, Feb 2 ( AFP ) - Hundreds of people rioted across
Indonesia in anger at spiralling prices for essential goods,
officials said Monday, as the economic crisis gripping the country
increased the suffering of its 200 million people.
Violence flared in up to 10 towns and villages on the
densely-populated island of Java and on Sulawesi, they added, with
shops and the ethnic Chinese minority taking the brunt of the mobs'
Some 2,000 people pelted shops with stones in the western
coastal town of Banawa, Central Sulawesi province, before being
dispersed by paramilitary and police units, military officer Suwardi
( Eds: one name ) said.
Millions of migrant workers poured uncertainly toward Jakarta
and other major cities.
"Some people ... are now worried about possible riots that may
happen as people come back to Jakarta," a dealer at a European
brokerage said, as the stock exchange defied sentiment and soared 14
percent on the back of a regional rebound.
"I am afraid workers who return from their home town will lose
their jobs," the dealer said. "This is a very sensitive issue
because it could easily trigger social unrest."
Troops and police have been mobilised as the violence spread
east towards Surabaya, Indonesia's second biggest city. The latest
riots in the city of Tuban brought clashes within 85 kilometres ( 50
miles ) East of Java's provincial capital of three million
The mobs have targetted shops owned by ethnic Chinese,
traditional victims during times of unrest here. Ethnic Chinese
account for about five percent of the population but dominate the
economy, while Moslems make up more than 90 percent.
Most of the riots and other disturbances have been confined to
Central Java and East Java.
News of the latest clashes came as the government began
implementing another series of reforms in line with a 40 billion US
dollar financial bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund
( IMF ) , officials said.
The reforms remove all agricultural subsidies and monopolies,
except on rice, where a government agency will continue to provide
subsidised produce to ensure supply of the main food staple.
The rupiah has crashed from 2,450 to the US dollar to around
11,000 since last July, but off its recent low of 16,500.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 16:25 - ID#194311)
Promises to the promised the promised land.
JERUSALEM, Feb 2 ( AFP ) - With the scare of Iraqi missile attacks
on Tel Aviv seven years ago fresh in their memories, panicky
Israelis flocked to army centers Monday to pick up gas masks and
other protection against chemical and biological weapons.
Several dozen soldiers had difficulty coping with the demand at
one distribution center in the basement of a Jerusalem shopping
mall, where hundreds of jittery civilians waited hours for their
"We'll be lucky if fistfights don't break out by the end of the
day," one of the soldiers confided from behind the fragile wooden
barrier separating him from the crowd.
Amidst the noise and shoving, angry shouts could be heard in
Hebrew as well as English, French and Russian.
"It's an outrage, I've been waiting for two-and-a-half hours,
I've lost half a day's work," said one young secretary as she waited
for her number to come up so she could be served.
Most of those interviewed readily admitted their fear that Iraqi
leader Saddam Hussein could once again choose to strike Israel if
the United States carries out its threat to attack sites suspected
of hiding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
"Saddam Hussein is crazy, he's capable of anything," said one
elderly man who remembered the 1991 Scud attacks on Tel Aviv which
left two people dead and hundreds wounded.
"The media is making everyone hysterical with their reports on
the effets of bacteria weapons and poison gas," said one mother who
would only give her first name, Elisheva.
"There is absolutely no cause for panic," he said.
But the government added to public alarm Monday by deploying
batteries of Patriot anti-missile missiles in the south of the
country in apparent preparation for an eventual Iraqi attack.
The US-made weapons system was deployed during the Gulf War but
failed to touch a single of the Scuds fired at the country. Debris
from the Patriots was even blamed for some of the damage and
injuries suffered during the conflict.
At the Jerusalem center, various models of gas masks are
displayed on a back wall, some with a tube to allow the user to
drink with the equipment on while a version for toddlers had a place
to attach a baby bottle.
All Israelis were instructed to pick up gas masks just before
the Gulf War, but those models are now considered obsolete and
ineffective against biological or chemical weapons.
In addition to the gas masks, the soldiers distribute a kit
containing a syringe and a dose of Atropine, an antidote for nerve

(Mon Feb 02 1998 16:28 - ID#344308)
absolutely incredible.......

dow up 200+....................

GOLD up also.......................

could this be considered a paradigm shift?

cncb just had an oil analyst on........the analyst is predicting
that oil prices will drop due to the CURRENCY CRISIS IN ASIA.....

the analyst stated that their purchasing power, due to the de-valuations,
has dropped drastically. also, the problem has yet to really impact
the commodities these countries purchase........the saddam factor
is the wild-card with crude-oil prices........other-wise, the trend
will be down.......iho

patience........the spin doctors are convincing others other-wise.....
wait until it hits ALL us exports.......consider what we export........
consider the asian markets.....realistic-ally......all things considered..

what will our exports be doing in the near future? sitting on the docks..
or in silo's.....or buried under a rock........

what IS happening to asian markets? not much being said all of a sudden...

this is good.....for gold.....gotta have pain, for really big gains.....

want to see what happened to commodities during the last de-flationary period? look at the grains during the '82-'85 years........this with-out
an asian melt-down.......

cycles are dictating another commodity wave soon.......chaos and flux
have control of the bridge......expect the un-expected.............and thus...

the life-blood of options.........

(Mon Feb 02 1998 16:29 - ID#246224)
The Asian crisis has been contained ..
to planet earth. All inter-planetary travel has now been banned. Infection control teams have been dispatched to 'sterilize' the situation. After this mission is accomplished a new round of settlement will begin.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 16:29 - ID#344308)
absolutely incredible.......

dow up 200+....................

GOLD up also.......................

could this be considered a paradigm shift?

cncb just had an oil analyst on........the analyst is predicting
that oil prices will drop due to the CURRENCY CRISIS IN ASIA.....

the analyst stated that their purchasing power, due to the de-valuations,
has dropped drastically. also, the problem has yet to really impact
the commodities these countries purchase........the saddam factor
is the wild-card with crude-oil prices........other-wise, the trend
will be down.......iho

patience........the spin doctors are convincing others other-wise.....
wait until it hits ALL us exports.......consider what we export........
consider the asian markets.....realistic-ally......all things considered..

what will our exports be doing in the near future? sitting on the docks..
or in silo's.....or buried under a rock........

what IS happening to asian markets? not much being said all of a sudden...

this is good.....for gold.....gotta have pain, for really big gains.....

want to see what happened to commodities during the last de-flationary period? look at the grains during the '82-'85 years........this with-out
an asian melt-down.......

cycles are dictating another commodity wave soon.......chaos and flux
have control of the bridge......expect the un-expected.............and thus...

the life-blood of options.........

(Mon Feb 02 1998 16:31 - ID#344308)
absolutely incredible.......

dow up 200+....................

GOLD up also.......................

could this be considered a paradigm shift?

cncb just had an oil analyst on........the analyst is predicting
that oil prices will drop due to the CURRENCY CRISIS IN ASIA.....

the analyst stated that their purchasing power, due to the de-valuations,
has dropped drastically. also, the problem has yet to really impact
the commodities these countries purchase........the saddam factor
is the wild-card with crude-oil prices........other-wise, the trend
will be down.......iho

patience........the spin doctors are convincing others other-wise.....
wait until it hits ALL us exports.......consider what we export........
consider the asian markets.....realistic-ally......all things considered..

what will our exports be doing in the near future? sitting on the docks..
or in silo's.....or buried under a rock........

what IS happening to asian markets? not much being said all of a sudden...

this is good.....for gold.....gotta have pain, for really big gains.....

want to see what happened to commodities during the last de-flationary period? look at the grains during the '82-'85 years........this with-out
an asian melt-down.......

cycles are dictating another commodity wave soon.......chaos and flux
have control of the bridge......expect the un-expected.............and thus...

the life-blood of options.........

(Mon Feb 02 1998 16:33 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 26.76

Charles Keeling
(Mon Feb 02 1998 16:35 - ID#344225)

If you live in Japan, I understand that you can
go to a bank and get a loan at 2 %. Now,
that you have cash, where to put it?

They don't trust the banks in Japan so they put
it in a *safe* place: US equities.
As I understand, the Bank Of Japan has 60 billion
invested in US Treasuries. Also the people of
Japan have another 60 Billion invested in
Treasuries and equities.

My bet: This hot money that is causing a bubble
in the stock market is coming from money
borrowed from Japanese Banks at 2%.

If that is true-what will happen when the bubble busts?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 16:35 - ID#254269)
Kiwi; your 16.25. What a sad world we live in, when there are gas masks

made for children !

(Mon Feb 02 1998 16:36 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .248

(Mon Feb 02 1998 16:39 - ID#344308)

apo for the tri-po

(Mon Feb 02 1998 16:39 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 47.87

(Mon Feb 02 1998 16:39 - ID#317193)
Let's see, the dow was up 201 today- this is good. If I am not mistaken, the dow was down 222 on January 9th-this is bad. I won't bother you with april-may or october of 1997. Suffice to say if anyone could predict this market please marry or adopt me. What you got here is a bubble that, while it might get larger, is someday going to burst. I'm not a goldbug or at least I was not until 1/02/98. Gold is at historic lows-it's time is either here or will be shortly. I no more wanted to be in the market on 1/9 than on 2/2, much less last april-may or october. The only opportunity lost in the market today was the chance of being in for another 1929. Thank You- I'LL PASS!!! By the way- thanks for the education. Tom

(Mon Feb 02 1998 16:43 - ID#23398)

(Mon Feb 02 1998 16:46 - ID#26793)
More on the Dow/Gold Ratio
The last time the Dow was at this level was December 9th when it closed at 8110. That day the Dow/Gold Ratio was 28.16, a full ounce and a half higher than today. Real money is clearly skeptical of this Dow rally.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 16:51 - ID#254269)
Dow/gold ratio 30 day moving average;
Donald, the 30 day moving average was 27.85 today, a premium of 1.09 ounces to today's actual. The gap is 0.40% which is half what it was last Monday. ( no doubt due to the Dow rise today ) .

(Mon Feb 02 1998 17:01 - ID#254179)
Thanks for the post. I was just on Excite looking for the Montreal Exchange's internet address for quotes. I have address's for the TSE & the VSE. That horse might be flying again in 98 though probably at substantially lower altitudes!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 17:13 - ID#335190)
Consumer spending $5.47 Trillion @ "HELP" "Opinions" Requested. Savings and Gold-Wages and Gold
February 2, 1998
WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The rate at which Americans saved their money fell to a 58-year low last year as consumers chose to increase spending faster than their after-tax incomes grew, the Commerce Department said Monday.

The U.S. savings rate, the portion of disposable income that goes into bank accounts, investments and other forms of savings, dropped to 3.8 percent in 1997, its lowest level since 1939, from 4.3 percent in 1996, the department said.

Economists blamed much of the decline on the rising stock market, which they said raised Americans' net worth and economic confidence to the point where they felt comfortable spending money they otherwise would have saved.

"The reason that the savings rate is at a 58-year low is that the bull market essentially did their savings for them," economist Bruce Steinberg of Merrill Lynch in New York said.

Consumer spending rose 5.4 percent last year to $5.47 trillion, exceeding the 5 percent gain in after-tax, or disposable income, which stood at $5.87 trillion, last year.

Pretax personal income, which includes not only wages and salaries but also earnings from dividends, interest and businesses, rose 5.8 percent in 1997 to $6.87 trillion. Personal income is essential for funding consumer purchases that fuel two-thirds of national economic activity.

With economic growth expected to slow in the coming year and stock market gains expected to be more modest, economists said they expect consumers to increase their rate of saving.

"I think that in 1998 there will be more uncertainty about the strength of the economy, more uncertainty about job prospects, more uncertainly about bonuses," said economist Paul Kasriel of Northern Trust Co. in Chicago. "As a result, you could see people starting to save more than they have in recent years."

"I just don't think people are going to keep consuming more than they earn," Steinberg added.

The U.S. savings rate has long lagged those of most other industrialized countries. While spending fuels economic growth, saving helps to keep interest rates down by providing the supply of money that is loaned to businesses and consumers.

In part because of the federal government's disappearing budget deficit, interest rates have been trending lower. Analysts expect key short-term rates to hold steady for months as the Federal Reserve tries to come to grips with the likely effects of Asia's financial turmoil on the U.S. economy.

The Fed's policy-making Federal Open Market Committee is expected to leave rates unchanged at its meeting Tuesday and Wednesday, at which Asia's woes and their effects on other economies are likely to consume much of the discussion.

In December, the savings rate rose slightly to 4.1 percent from 3.9 percent in November as growth slowed in consumer spending and personal income, the department said.

Consumer spending rose 0.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $5.61 trillion after a 0.4 percent gain a month earlier, while personal income from all sources rose 0.4 percent to a $7.05 trillion rate after a 0.7 percent gain in November, it said.

Separately, the department reported that spending on new construction barely rose in December as a drop in spending on government projects largely offset a continued boom in home building that has been fueled by low mortgage rates.

Total spending on all types of construction work, including residential, commercial and government projects, edged up 0.1 percent in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $611.8 billion after a scant 0.1 percent decline in November, the department said.

For all of 1997, construction spending rose 5.6 percent to $600.7 billion after rising 6.5 percent in 1996.

In one of the first indications of business activity last month, the National Association of Purchasing Management ( NAPM ) reported that its flagship index, which gauges U.S. industry activity in the United States, fell to 52.4 in January from 53.1 in December.

Despite the decline, Norbert Ore, chairman of the NAPM's business survey committee, said the index still suggests a healthy 3 percent growth rate for the economy.

Ore said the financial crisis in East Asia has taken a toll on U.S. exports, as expected.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 17:22 - ID#57232)
Trouble outside SEAsia
Kiwi: It does look like losses in SEAsia are spreading to Europe and the US. I am looking at a post someone on Kitco just gave us, titled 'S&P- Eurobank losses in Asia could top $15 billion', PARIS, Feb 2 ( Reuters ) .

Total SEAsian claims reported to the BIS were $260 billion ( USdollars ) , from South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. ( not Japan, Hong Kong or China ) . This was on June 30, 1997, so it is not current. Also there are losses included from non-reporting Asian banks that skew this data. More than 1/3 were apparently loans from European banks. Approximately 20 European banks had 85-90% of the exposure, and their total was more like 110-130 billion according to S&P data. I don't know how serious this is, but it is clearly not trivial.

As I recall American bank exposure is mainly to South America, not SEAsia. The table on this post indicates US exposure is only 21 billion, but Japanese exposure is 95 billion.

Also, how about the 300 billion or so in SOE's in China, the losses in Hong Kong, and losses in Japan?

However, I am learning about one thing -- this is old news, market wise. But -- it may give us a clue regarding which banks in Europe will have to declare losses on their quarterly reports, or experience downgraded ratings. It may be that has not been fully factored in yet.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 17:23 - ID#34883)
japanese loan rates?

Carpe Aurem
(Mon Feb 02 1998 17:34 - ID#339292)
@JTF re Los Latinos
Actually, JTF, South Americans do not seem to have a significant prescence in my CB Gold Reserve report; Venezuela and Brazil leading the latins in oro for a aggregate total of about 472 tonnes. Chicken feed. Argentina should be just about completely divested according to my report. And Mexico - they're not even on the list, which just means that their holdings were too insignificant to make the list and they're the ones that seem to be dying ( again ) here.

Frankly, I don't think they're a major threat ( relative to some europeans or certainly to the US ) to price stability. We shall see.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 17:42 - ID#402260)
Inflation Cookie Will Crumble
After all the deflation scenarios have been played out,the Tiger economies will freeze their capacity advantages.Beenie Babies for 150.00 US in 2 years. Sorrry, but we gave it away.
Sell your Expeditions and Tahoes. If we bomb Iraq, the selve serve lane
will close.

C.V. Compton Shaw
(Mon Feb 02 1998 18:02 - ID#286164)
Jupiter Into Pisces Wednesday, Feb. 4
Astrologically speaking, the entrance of the planet Jupiter into the sign of the Zodiac on Wednesday, Feb. 4 is bullish for all commodities including the precious metals. Of course, this information should only be analyzed along with other fundamental and technical indicators and is not a recommendation, based solely on the same, to purchase gold and/or silver.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 18:02 - ID#57232)
Increased turmoil, money moving to safe havens - wherever they are.
Kiwi: I think you are right about increased market turmoil. Perhaps the US markets will be going up due to money 'flight to safety'. It saddens me to know that the Israelis are fighting for gas masks, deploying Patriot missles in South Israel, and the Indonesians are rioting against the Chinese minorities. Do we know the current Israeli gas masks would actually work? I hope the patriot missles work too -- their computers should be much smarter and faster if they were upgraded.

And the US market is rallying? Could intense emotions in one part of the world reflect intense emotions in another? It works both ways, and the US markets could go down equally quickly ( or quicker ) if the mood swings the other way.

My guess is that for now -- the mood is an international 'flight to safety' in the US. What would you do if you were a SEAsian or European investor and you saw trouble ahead? And 17% unemployment in France, etc. with Russia near collapse? The last time something comparable to this happened was around 1993 when there was much uncertainty in the EURO, and the UK had to bail out. Gold and the American dollar both soared for a time. I think it will take a major reversal of some kind to stop the US rally -- an Iraq related mishap, or AG puts on the brakes to prevent an unstable expansion of the market bubble.

This is very much like what happened in the 20's. Around 1925 ( 1927? ) , the depression hit the world outside the US. The USs markets rallied ( flight to safety ) generally all the way to Oct 1929 when the US market bubble collapsed, expanded in part by the desperate Europeans who felt they had no other place for their money. And -- we all know that around 1927 those leaders of the European banks asked the Americans to inflate the dollar -- so that 'gold could move back to Europe'.

Things are different now -- but parallels do exist with the 20's, don't they? Is AG's inflating the dollar to aid SEAsia in the late 90's like inflating the dollar to aid the Euopeans in the late 20's? Perhaps.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 18:03 - ID#335184)
Like The Joker said to Batman, "Wait til they get a load of Chinese devaluation, dux 2 !"


(Mon Feb 02 1998 18:07 - ID#26669)
platinum is up
and SWC lloks like its building a base at around $20...I hope its a base that is :^ )

(Mon Feb 02 1998 18:08 - ID#411149)
C.V. Compton Shaw- where you been?? Glad to see you back!
Sure do like your view of the stars.

Tally Ho

(Mon Feb 02 1998 18:12 - ID#288295)
T A R G E T P R A C T I C E !!

FWIW - I happened to be outside a large chemicals/synthetic fiber complex in central North Carolina today, when - lo, and behold, we were the target of a low-level overflight ( about 200 ft ) by a pair of F-15s going about 600 mph and they left the area at a 45 degree angle, full afterburners on....we're 200 miles from the nearest fighter homebase, so this was no accident.....SOMETHING'S UP, BOYS AND GIRLS!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 18:33 - ID#335184)
CYCLIST @ 14:42 Paper conflageration, cash & AU
Sagacious observation !
Can't convert cash from ash & can't buy au at any price once paper is trashed !
Move to cash now while you can or go gutsy & short the S & P.
There will be time to get on board the Gold Train before it leaves the station.

My guess is 50% chance S & P falls abruptyly & AU skyrockets, 35% chance it moves sideways - down in classic long term vicious Bear, wher upon AU takes off like a 747 & 15% chance it goes up, up & away, in ever increasing bubble beyond the time horizon of OZ & AU stays in a Cinderella celler between $240 & $320 !
I'll take cash. Thank you very much, for my risk reward ratio.

God bless, God Speed & Happy Hunting !


Crystal Ball
(Mon Feb 02 1998 18:34 - ID#287367)
How bizarre, how bizarre!
On this record-setting day, SPH8 ranged only 1001.00 to 1008.80, and closed at 1004.00, pitiful 2.73 premium to cash @ 1001.27 ! US $ and Bonds had a lousy day, and TBills even worse - down 7. Metals on the other hand looked super. Was this the last squirt for the US stock market? Stay tuned...

(Mon Feb 02 1998 18:37 - ID#254269)
Good morning Nick @ C; anything going on downunder yet ?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 18:42 - ID#57232)
If we bomb Iraq, the self-serve lane will close.
HeavyMetal: That has a familiar ring to it. I remember the gas lines in the 70's. Had a big American car, but could buy get 10 gallons max, so I had to keep getting in line. We used our little foreign car more and more. Could happen again if BC bites off more in Iraq than he can chew, or Israel ignores us and retaliates against Iraq. Netanyahu is very likely to do just that. This is just what certain Araba interests want, I think, because then they can join in the fray.

I hope we do not throw the first stone and trigger the escalation process. I guess there is one good thing about what is happening. I don't think Saddam has much of an offensive force left. But if that is so -- why all the commotion? We should be much more worried about Syria, Iran and Egypt joining in if Israel gets aggressive. Who do we fight then?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 18:51 - ID#194311)
Negative correlation.....60 year low....Dow/Gold versus Savings rate?
U.S. Savings Rate Falls
WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The rate at which Americans saved
their money fell to a 58-year low last year as consumers chose
to increase spending faster than their after-tax incomes grew,
the Commerce Department said today. The U.S. savings rate, the
portion of disposable income that goes into bank accounts,
investments and other forms of savings, dropped to 3.8 percent
in 1997, its lowest level since 1939, from 4.3 percent in 1996,
the department said. Economists blame much of the decline on the
rising stock market, which they said raised Americans' net worth
and economic confidence to the point where they felt comfortable
spending money they otherwise would have saved.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 18:53 - ID#393224)
G'day Avalon

Aussie market was up quite well the first 45 minutes--but now something has spooked it and is heading south rapidly. What news out anyone???

(Mon Feb 02 1998 19:06 - ID#194311)
Iraq denies permission for inspections....
and Saudi Arabia not co-operating with Madeline.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 19:09 - ID#93232)
The Traveling Kitco Midway Show....Step Right Up, Sonny!
An agreement in principle has been entered into by The Flaming Hamburger Eatin' Gold Monk and N. Tolerant Dundee and his Woman-Eating Tequilaconda
to jointly tour the Midwestern United States later this year. Because of the rather dangerous nature of these highly entertaining performances and due to the volatile nature of the personalities involved, no subsequent dates have been announced.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 19:09 - ID#288295)
EWT on Silver

ELLIOTT WAVE THEORIST Jan 30th issue: 'Silver's early January wave 4 setback to within 8 cents of the highlighted critical support at $5.28 shook off even more small traders. In a classic setup for a spectacular final rally, the net position of this normally devoted group fell to 12,208 contracts, the lowest total in twelve years! The lowest Daily Sentiment Index 10-day average readings since the July low...confirm an extraordinarily favorable sentiment picture. Ideal upside projections are $7.00 - 7.40, although this emotional metal could certainly spurt higher, briefly.'

(Mon Feb 02 1998 19:27 - ID#288295)
EWT on Gold

ELLIOTT WAVE THEORIST Jan 30th issue: 'Gold started the new year by smacking to a new eighteen-year low amidst 'endless bad news for gold bulls.' Our $285-275 support remained intact as the two-year wave ( A ) decline stopped within $1 of a Fibonacci 61.8% of the corresponding 1980 wave ( A ) drop. A well-formed five waves down from Christmas Eve ended with a beautiful little diagonal triangle similar to the pattern that preceded a $30 bounce last February. the late-January rally is already the largest since the downtrend began in early 1996, so it remains likely that gold is beginning a Primary wave ( B ) bounce toward $340... Caveat: With gold having rallied so strongly from an ideal Fibonacci projection after an apparently completed wave structure, an unexpected break under $280 would probably announce an important 'third wave' decline. The next strong downside projection, equality between the ( A ) waves, is at the $216 level.'

(Mon Feb 02 1998 19:31 - ID#372344)
@ Dow...Gold...US$...Iraq....
A sigh of relief is how I would describe the 200 point rise in the dow
today, BJ is "safe" so far..not for long, Star may make a deal with
Monica for immunity and contradict BJ....with all this talk about a budget"SURPLUS"?,... corporate profits still not showing "Asian" won't last long IMHO,... maybe 2-3 weeks, I can't see how
we get new highs....News from Iraq seems to be all over the place
today, Russian say OK to inspect some palaces, Iraqis say NO WAY,
Saudi's say No to US planes to strike Iraq from their soil, the Pentagon
says, Saudis will comply, previous statements just for their domestic
consumption, BUT Turkey says NO to US planes from their soil...
3 aircraft carriers now in the Gulf...Gold I believe is waiting for "action"
since a number of previous times Hussein backed down, and NO strikes.
He personally does not have much to loose...He is desperate to have
UN sanctions lifted and what better can just see it now
CNN showing pictures of dead Iraqi babies from US Bombs....
I still believe there is a 75% chance of strikes....Gold bugs should
be wishing for higher Asian markets, since this would "restore"?
some ( little ) semblence of confidence there, and thus sell US$...
BTW I guess that is as good as an apology.
I say again to all Kitcoites "due diligence" trust BUT verify before investing. all of course JMHO

(Mon Feb 02 1998 19:32 - ID#26669)
Too funny for words! No wonder theyre buying US bonds. theyre crazy!!!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 19:36 - ID#93232)
Thanks to the EWT, I now know gold will either be $340. or $216. soon. Ohmy! Cubalibre! Gold was up a down a dime. Help.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 19:37 - ID#26669)
Silverbaron: probability of $340?
What is the probability, please that gold will pass through the recently projected $220 resistance and on to last year's $240 resistance level? From the Ewave viewpoint if you like...

(Mon Feb 02 1998 19:49 - ID#238295)
the outlook
Gold and gold stock action not too good today considering huge Asian rally. Unless the AU action improves dramtically and soon, another drop below $300 is a good bet. But that will be a terrific buying opportunity.

My guess is that the stock market will continue to rally for the next few weeks, with the Dow rising to the 8500-9000n range. Small caps have lagged badly this year and could really surge 15-20% before its all over.

Buit once its over its over and we go down hard and fast. Puetz has made many bad predictions, buit I now think he was right when he said that this market will either continue surging or crash. I had been expecting a long bear market, but this latest blowoff makes a crash increasingly probable.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 19:58 - ID#93232)
@B. Jefferson Clinton.....
had to get a dog to explain away the spots on the White House rugs.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:02 - ID#364147)
Studio.R...............and Rug spots
What else could they be???

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:04 - ID#410194)
COMEX DATA - I know I'm late!
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after trading today:

Gold: Rose 18,817 troy ounces to 445,879

Silver: Fell 327,101 troy ounces to 103,778,089 - A new 13 year low

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:05 - ID#93232)
love mud

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:06 - ID#57232)
Did SEAsia rally trigger US Market Rally? Probably -- US dollar down.
All: What do you think the US market rise today is from?

a ) A 'me,too rally' to follow SEAsia rally?

b ) A 'flight to safety'?

A 2% rise in US markets could just be a me, too rally. Did you all notice that the Dollar went down today? That does not sound like flight to safety, but rather that foreign investors may have been selling today.

If this was a me, too rally, the US market rally will falter very soon. Otherwise, fasten your seat belts!

Now, just how long will the SEAsian rally last? Has Hashimoto actually slain the dying $24 billion/day bank dragon? Where is the news for the banking reform? If not, the SEAsian rally will be short-term only.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:07 - ID#364147)
Studio.R and love mud

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:07 - ID#410194)
The rest of the world James....

The global overall picture still points to a gradual increase in the usage of food basic stuff.

As for copper, I have no idea. It's kind of difficult to short this market at these low levels but the inventory stocks keep increasing daily!

We better watch this from the sidelines for now.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:07 - ID#372344)
@ Old Gold....
While I would agree with view of a market collapse under normal
and "free" markets, I have argued here the fact that the PPT is
seriously underestimated in their amount of interference in the "free" marketplace both down and up. I recall that a number of Kitcoites here, not just Puetz who were calling for a "crash" in the US markets which never materialized. No doubt there will be a decline of US markets, but
IMHO it will be systematic and orderly ( PPT ) . You probably recall
that it took the US markets 4-5 years from'1976 to 1981 for the
markets to go down to about 890 points about 55% decline and bonds to go down to about $45 for $100. I just simply don't believe, and this
week in cogent proof, that we have reached the threashhold of panic
necessary for said crash, the confidence level in ordinary citizens
is still very strong. all of course JMHO

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:08 - ID#42365)
Irc channel.
hey someone needs to start an irc channel on effnet cal it #gold i think it would cool, we have enuff ppl here to definately do it and it would be in real time.??? hrmm

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:12 - ID#364147)
Get Thiessen
KILL the stupid bastard~~~~~~~~~

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:16 - ID#93232)
Teddo...the call to harms!
I presume you just arrived at the "tax due" number....what a privilege!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:18 - ID#256254)
Date: Mon Feb 02 1998 20:04
Realistic ( COMEX DATA - I know I'm late! ) ID#410194:
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after trading today:

Gold: Rose 18,817 troy ounces to 445,879

Realistic can you tell us if all the 18,817 are available for delivery or are they for show?

Steve - Perth
(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:20 - ID#284177)
Australian Mkt up 6 pts

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:21 - ID#42365)
Man Someone needs to take that Marilyn Manson Punk Out.
I think he maybe in cahoots wif Clinton???

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:27 - ID#28585)
Sources are revealing that the administration is growing increasingly alarmed by the narrow to non-existent margins of cash in the America's major mutual funds. Available cash has rapidly depleted as the mutual funds have resorted to doing "whatever it takes" to maintain the illusion of a strong stock market.

To that effect, sources state that first lady Hillary is ready to go on national TV and request all American women hold neighborhood bake sales to raise cash for the increasingly desperate mutual funds.

"I feel I will kill two birds with one stone here," she reportedly declared, "On the one hand, we'll save our wonderful la-la land economy from total ruin and on the other hand, women across America will see that I actually do respect domestic housewife chores and do not consider the average housewife to be on the same low level as that lazy, stupid, connniving slut, Lewinsky!"

Hillary confided in various sources that she got her idea from the Koreans who, when called upon by their country to assist their failing economy, came through by relinquishing their gold into the national pot.

"Of course, I could never ask Americans to turn over their gold. They may be jackass stupid...but their not quite that F___ing stupid! On the other hand, a nice bake sale effectively involves little if any sacrifice and for the average domestic housewife ( who never attended Yale Law like I did ) , I imagine the whole event might prove to relatively amusing."

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:28 - ID#222235)
Interesting post. Didn't realize that the big D hit the rest of the world before U. S. Did know that there were multiple bubbles, and that one, in particular, the Florida real estate bubble that burst in '27, only increased the certainty of Wall Streeters that they were in the right investments. The Marx Brothers were making a film, "Coconuts" lampooning the foolish ones who bet and lost all in Florida. Among the smug, the Marx Brothers. Groucho lost his fortune in the Wall Street crash before the filming was done. He was crushed.

Where did the great depression begin, anyway?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:31 - ID#222235)
Heard on the car radio news a few minutes ago that Kenneth Starr had decided to submit the results of his Lewinsky investigation to the congress, not a grand jury. They went on to explain that the grand jury had a higher threshold than the congress would.

Don't see anything on Reuter's.

Anyone pick up on this?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:31 - ID#256254)
Malaysia KLSE Composite ^KLSE 8:28PM 704.60 +135.09 +23.72%

Man, these markets have to be kicking butt with the derivatives writers. I expect to see more blood on the saddle for those who play derivatives.

If the markets ( at least in Asia ) are making swings of 10%, 15%, ... 24%, can currency swings be far behind?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:31 - ID#222235)
Heard on the car radio a few minutes ago that Kenneth Starr had decided to submit the results of his Lewinsky investigation to the congress, not a grand jury. They went on to explain that the grand jury had a higher threshold than the congress would.

Don't see anything on Reuter's.

Anyone pick up on this?

neo fight
(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:32 - ID#390179)
Knowledge of recent history, gotta luv it.
Waves goin' off in superbowl city.
Time to forget.
Tanks for the laughs.
Go gold.
Aussies get jelus---8-10 foot in and glassy.
Get off my wave---dig?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:41 - ID#256254)
14:39:13 303.4 sttl g 1
14:39:13 303.4 sttl w 1
14:39:13 623.3 sttl g 1
14:39:13 623.3 sttl w 1

This information showed on Can someone explain what it means.
The gc8g contract closed at 303.4.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:42 - ID#7568)

The action in the markets worldwide are not that inexplicable when viewed through the monetary prism. Over the past several months we have seen an acceleration in worldwide money growth in the face of the Asian debacle. US broad money growth ( M3 ) is racing ahead at a pace of nearly 10% per annum. With M3 at around 5.3 trillion this amounts to 530 billion dollars of fresh liquidity each year. This is lots of money. Twice as much money as the combined external bank debt of all the SE Asian sinkholes.

A rising tide, is going to raise the price of all the asset boats. Stocks and bonds are assets so they are beneficiaries of the swell. Real estate and fine art are also assets. They too are getting a lift. And quite a big one at that. Commodities are not viewed as assets by many, thus they lag. However, it only takes a very few people to change that picture. Silver is now viewed as an asset by at least a small group of investors. The price is up almost 50% in 7 months.

The key to the future of the markets, lies as it always does in the modern financial world, with those that control the price of credit. The arbiters of the game are now content to let machine run full throttle to satisfy a number of requests. Even before the Asian debacle, there was the need to get Europe and Japan going. Now that Asia is teetering, there are 'compelling' reasons for not removing the punch bowl.

The stock and bond markets are not going to suffer in a significant way until the markets begin to sense that a reason exists for the Fed to step on the brakes. The factor which could most quickly change the bond calculus is the dollar. Much of the commodity price deflation over the past year is traceable to a strong rise in the dollar. The dollar's strength has also served to put a cap on import prices thus keeping the price of tradeable goods at a minimum.

There are significant factors for which the dollar is now at risk. The first is the relative strength of the US economy to its industrial partners. For the last few years, the US has been the engine of global growth, with Europe and Japan in the doldrums. Europe at least seems now to be in the throws of a cyclical upswing. This should produce some investment flow towards Europe and away from the US as this process continues. The second factor which could derail the dollar is the trade picture. With the dollar having risen so strongly against both Europe and Japan there is going to be increased pressure on the trade accounts. With the US already in current account deficit mode, any further trade account deterioration will worsen the situation. By definition current account deficits must be financed with foreign capital. If the dollar begins to be perceived as risky, the bond yield need finance our current account deficit will go higher. Bonds may be unusually sensitive to this effect, because dollar strength has been so crucial to the moderation of price inputs.

On the commodity front it is worth noting that some industrial commodities are doing a little better than advertised. The aluminum, copper and zinc markets have been going up a little, and the lumber market is up around 15% from its recent lows. There is nothing in these rises thats signifies the immediate demise of the bond market, but it is worth noting that some stuff that is supposed to be heading for 0 due in the deflationary collapse theory, is holding its own.

On the Asian front the markets do appear to be putting in a major bottom. Some of the worst hit currencies are making some decent headway. One of the major reasons for the near complete collapse of the currencies was the reluctance of the exporting companies to repatriate any of their trade earnings back into local currency. These same companies have in part been paying their debt service costs to foreign banks in local currency. The foreign banks, having do desire to hold, Won, Rupiah etc, immediately dumped this cash back on the market. With no natural buyers for the currencies they sunk. At some point the export corporations will have built up enough of a hard currency cash position to finance their import requirements. At this point, future receipts of hard currency can be repatriated. This will begin a virtuous cycle for at least a little while in the currencies, until some reasonable fair valuation is reached. With the current account balances of these countries swinging rapidly into surplus, the time may be at hand.

In short, the liquidity blizzard is likely to continue. In this storm it is not a great idea to short anything. Instead, try and find places where a surge of liquidity might act to bid up some asset to absurd heights. If one is looking for the play on the other side of the mountain the first stage ought to be a yield curve steepening. Once this begins to occur, the short stories get a little more compelling. Until then, find something to buy.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:44 - ID#256254)
14:39:18 303.4 sttl g 1
14:39:18 303.4 sttl w 1

the 303.4 came in at 14:39:18 sorry.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:46 - ID#335190)
USofA Securities @ Japan Off Loading Treasury Holdings
February 2, 1998
Japan lightens its U.S. securities holdings

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Japan sold U.S. Treasury securities late last year, though it remained the largest foreign holder of U.S. government debt, Treasury Department documents released Monday showed.

Japan sold $3 billion of U.S. Treasuries between Aug. 31 and Nov. 30, scaling back its total holdings to $318.2 billion.

Japan owned 24.7 percent of all U.S. Treasury securities owned by foreigners, followed by Britain, which owned $289.6 billion worth, or 22.5 percent, of total foreign holdings.

Japan's economy has been in the doldrums for much of the past decade, prompting occasional concern that it might become a less reliable customer, or even begin selling U.S. Treasury securities.

The money borrowed from Japan through U.S. Treasury securities sales helps finance the shortfall between the U.S. government's income and its spending.

But with the Clinton administration forecasting in its fiscal 1999 budget proposals sent to Congress Monday that an era of budget surpluses is near, some of the concern about foreign demand likely will ease since the United States will not need to borrow as much in future.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:46 - ID#344308)


nostradamus predicted a president would be turned-out
by congress........for shaming the office....


i'll post the exact quatrain shortly........

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:52 - ID#288295)
223 & STUDIO.R

About $340 gold: I'm really a learner at Elliott Wave Theory - others on the forum would be a much better source of confirmation. My little understanding of the EWT forecast is this: consider an ( overall down ) zig-zag wave A-B-C with 1st segment A and last segment C being in the 'down' direction, and segment B being in the 'up' direction. EWT considers the drop from the high in 1996 to the low this month as wave A. Wave B, the 'up' wave, should be 0.618 times as long as Wave A. I haven't checked the numbers to see if this equates to $340........Elliott Wave Theory is more art, I think, than science....This publication has consistently missed forecasts ( by YEARS ) of the end of the overall bull market, if this is any consolation on the gold forecast.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 20:53 - ID#93232)
A Great Essay. "Find something to buy." Sounds like good old inflation to me... that's the only game I know how to play. Thanks.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:00 - ID#364147)
Get Revenue Canada (IRS -you dummies)
Studio.R: Why is it that I don't feel so privileged???

Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug
(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:03 - ID#432214)
Martin Armstrong's latest analysis of the metals market dated 98.02.02
He is all worked up and foaming at the mouth. ( Metals Scandal of 1998 ) Hope the free research continues!!!!! The site can be found at

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:09 - ID#93232)
@Ted....the privileged many....
I still get to keep my children. Praise be to our benevolent masters...the revenuers. ( My little sis is an up&coming IRS think you've got it bad...our family holiday get-togethers break up real early nowadays ) .

Crystal Ball
(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:10 - ID#287367)
WHAT deflation?
Anybody expecting the Fed to tighten tomorrow? I didn't think so....All puppet-heads talk about U.S. importing deflation from Asia, only...Is gold price down in SE Asia? Tea? Rice? Oil, WHAT? Hang Sang up 14% in ONE DAY! S&P 500 at all time high. ( Nice round number, 1000, heh heh ) ...What if Al decides it's time to tone down the irrational exuberance?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:12 - ID#255284)
In the blazing summer sun.......
G & S & P B

More on Princeton's Armstrong, to add to Lan Man's observation on Date: Sat Jan 31 1998 13:58

This from earlier this year---

Presented On May 14, 1997 By
Martin Armstrong - Founder and President
Princeton Economics Institute

Regarding Silver, he believes that once the bull movement gets in
gear - it would advance it to $18/oz. level - after some hesitating
resistance around $10-12/oz area.


I'd rather be rich than right..

Ted--- Argggh the taxman cometh. Do you got a capital gains tax payable on your dwelling?

"Extra Pops" advancing to Australia fair, as we speak.


(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:12 - ID#57232)
I was wondering where all of those international dollars went
D.A.: Your inflationary story sounds compelling -- those foreign dollars AG greated are pouring into SEAsia, and will eventually come back to roost. Your statement also implies that the deflationary cycle in SEAsia has been overwhelmed by a flood of American dollars. If so, we will have inflation, not deflation, as you have been patiently telling us. Some of us doubted that you were right.

I was wondering why the commodity price index was so persistently rising. I must admit I can see nothing to counter your argument. Since the Euro is not an immediate threat to the dollar, I would guess that the most obvious effect will be a general rise in the price of all dollar-based items. Real estate, oil, gold etc, will do well. It is entirely possible that taking your statement to the next logical step, the US markets may well rally for the rest of 1998, barring some surprise external to the markets.

Here is a question for you. If you were Alan Greenspan, would you let the US market bubble rise, knowing full well that it may pop later? I don't know. Certainly first priority was preventing SEAsian catastrophe.

I wonder -- if AG thinks the SEAsian crisis is behind us, will he try to control the US bull market?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:19 - ID#255284)
uh duh.
last year, earlier last year.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:20 - ID#93232)
AG will continue to print dollars until it is weakened and then raise rates to strengthen it.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:20 - ID#317193)
Irrational Exuberance
Calculator please! I now see the errors of my ways. The path to riches is now clear. 2.55% return in USA per day BUT 24% per hour in Malaysia!!! No problem, there is a free lunch. The people of the world may believe 2%+ a day but may just stop and think of preserving wealth with 24% per hour swings. Talk about your waves all you want, insanity scares people. Large swings in the market are a death KNOLL. Say a prayer. Tom

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:21 - ID#42365)
Cherokee - translated nostradamus hrmmm
VIII.14 An immoral leader.
VI.13 A dubious US president shall be impeached.

Well well this is interesting. if it does happen i will congratulate nostardamus when i see him. Personally i would like to see it happen.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:23 - ID#364147)
Studio.R.........................I get to keep nothin(no kiddies)....+
cause of "mommie dearest" and little bro ( wills+ estates sheister ) my family get-togethers break up before they start~~~~~~~

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:25 - ID#364147)
Aurator..............and capital gains

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:29 - ID#255284)
The Revenooo
No cap gains tax here mate.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:29 - ID#217268)
Dow Crashing Up Today
BC's popularity is directly proportional to the strength of the stock market. Imagine for a minute his popularity if, instead of DJIA = 8000, it was DJIA = 6500 and falling!!! See my point. It would be interesting to correlate his popularity in 1994 when the stock market was flat.

People don't really care about BC's personal life. They DO CARE about THEIR MONEY.... mutual funds, 401k's, pension, etc. Show me the money.

So what is my point tonight. BC no doubt put pressure on AG and RR to pressure the mutual funds to spend what little remaining cash reserves to prop-up the market in a self-fullfilling prophecy. Sort of like the tail wagging the dog ( sorry Buddy ) . Intended Result: the financial markets would have appeared to have vindicated BC. The "all clear" signal will suck in more money from those waiting on the sidelines. Let's watch and see.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:30 - ID#93232)
@Ted...cane and mabel......
Ted... you be too cool, dude. I think I know you from all my lives.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:31 - ID#344308)


two quatrains from nostradamus.......

great credit, of gold, of silver in great abundance...
shall blind his honor through sexual desire...
shall be struck with his adulterous offenses...
who shall obtain a great dis-honor...

one dubious president shall not reign long...
the majority of populations shall give him support...
but capitol hill shll not give high mark of approval...
such a great chair shall be up-held from decay...

read all of the quatrians...there are incredible parallels......
and chaos and flux right around the corner....according to you know
who.......dates for these events are included!!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:31 - ID#335190)
Canadian Lackeys & USofA International Corporate policy @ War Talk
February 1, 1998
Canada will consider joining Gulf attack

OTTAWA ( CP )  Canada will consider joining a military alliance to punish Iraq for its continued refusal to co-operate with UN weapons inspections, says Defence Minister Art Eggleton.

But the United States, which has been seeking support in Europe and the Middle East for such an attack, has yet to formally approach Canada about taking part.

Charest took his concerns to Chretien in a telephone call Sunday afternoon. A spokeswoman for the Tory leader said Chretien told Charest the issue would be discussed in the Commons today.

The Tories are not averse to joining the effort to strike Iraq. "We feel very strongly that all diplomatic measures should be pursued, but in the end if it doesn't succeed then yes, Canada should be ready to participate."

Most of the political leaders, however, appear to agree an attack against Iraq is impending.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:32 - ID#335190)
Canadian Lackeys & USofA International Corporate policy @ War Talk
February 1, 1998
Canada will consider joining Gulf attack

OTTAWA ( CP )  Canada will consider joining a military alliance to punish Iraq for its continued refusal to co-operate with UN weapons inspections, says Defence Minister Art Eggleton.

But the United States, which has been seeking support in Europe and the Middle East for such an attack, has yet to formally approach Canada about taking part.

Charest took his concerns to Chretien in a telephone call Sunday afternoon. A spokeswoman for the Tory leader said Chretien told Charest the issue would be discussed in the Commons today.

The Tories are not averse to joining the effort to strike Iraq. "We feel very strongly that all diplomatic measures should be pursued, but in the end if it doesn't succeed then yes, Canada should be ready to participate."

Most of the political leaders, however, appear to agree an attack against Iraq is impending.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:32 - ID#335190)
Canadian Lackeys & USofA International Corporate policy @ War Talk
February 1, 1998
Canada will consider joining Gulf attack

OTTAWA ( CP )  Canada will consider joining a military alliance to punish Iraq for its continued refusal to co-operate with UN weapons inspections, says Defence Minister Art Eggleton.

But the United States, which has been seeking support in Europe and the Middle East for such an attack, has yet to formally approach Canada about taking part.

Charest took his concerns to Chretien in a telephone call Sunday afternoon. A spokeswoman for the Tory leader said Chretien told Charest the issue would be discussed in the Commons today.

The Tories are not averse to joining the effort to strike Iraq. "We feel very strongly that all diplomatic measures should be pursued, but in the end if it doesn't succeed then yes, Canada should be ready to participate."

Most of the political leaders, however, appear to agree an attack against Iraq is impending.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:33 - ID#344308)

the url-------

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:34 - ID#252357)
Big Bad Wolf

We had a poster who used the HAHAHAHAHAHAHA tactic, similar to he who
Vents the Dorm. Could it be?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:41 - ID#364147)
Aurator......Now ya say ya got it hot+ dry...........and NO cap-gain tax------
keep rubbin it in buddy~~~~~~Canada has a TAX for everthin.....

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:42 - ID#293211)
Clinton in deep DO-DO with CFR causes his latest problems
The liberal press attack against Clinton, who has traditionally protected him throughout his presidency is now against him.Clinton angered British Israelites and Zionists... Monica lewinsky allegations arose after Clinton refused to back NETANYAHUs plan.. Clinton called for Israel to pull troops out of some of its territory that has been ultimately promised to Palestinian rule against Netanyahu's and zionist wishes.Clinton also made a public statement that he thought it was unreasonable to demand the PLO to retract its call for the "Destruction of the state of Israel" , and urged Yassar ARAfat to ignore the demand.
Linda Tripp is jewish, a member of the ADL, affiliated with the mossad, and was involded in an operation to discredit the Militia post "Oklahoma city". Linda tripp is a zionist.
Monica lewinsky is jewish , she is a zionist, and her family is affiliated with the ADL, is zionist,and is jewish. Her attorney is also a member of the ADL, is a zionist and is jewish. Kenneth star is an british Israelist and a Zionist. The entire media complex of the United states is owned by Zionist and pro-British interests. Since WW2 the CIA and Military Intelligence communities have exercised a majority control over the press in this country. The CIA has traditionally been and is in the complete control of British Israelist and Zionist bureaucrats. Hillary clinton was right on the money when she named a conspiracy but she was off when she called it right wing... unlessBritish Israelism and Zionism can be called right wing. She nailed Jerry falwell ... as he is a raving zionist.
The only thing that can save clinton from the wrath of british and zionist wealth and power is a complete reversal of his recent policy regarding Israel. In addition he would be required to make an apology for his statement. If he does not do these things they will get him... if not with Monica Lewsky then with something... or someone else. Got to for an explanation on how this will be accomplished.
This information was written by William Cooper on his web site chat room.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:43 - ID#335190)
Canadian Military Museum @ Jews demand space for Holocaust "SHOW" GET LOST !!!!!!!!
February 2, 1998
Compromise may settle Holocaust memorial question

OTTAWA ( CP )  A proposed memorial to the Holocaust may not end up in an expanded Canadian War Museum after all.

A document circulated privately among members of a Senate subcommittee on Monday suggests the Canadian Museum of Civilization  which oversees the war museum  may be ready to compromise on the issue.

The proposal to use part of the museum expansion to house a Holocaust Gallery has drawn the ire of some veterans, who say they favor such a memorial, but not in an institution dedicated to Canadian military history.

Senator Bill Kelly wondered where the Second World War massacre of European Jewry meshed with Canadian military history. "I don't see it in your mandate," he said. The museum's mandate is to be a memorial to Canadian soldiers and peacekeepers, to teach Canada's military history and to document modern peacekeeping and peacemaking efforts.

Marshall, who is Jewish, wonders if racism lurks in the opposition. "I find it inconceivable that Canadians are fighting who should be in the museum, what are we remembering," he said. "I see a little bit of anti-Semitism," he said.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 21:57 - ID#28585)
You are this year's winner of the "I"VE GOT TOTAL SH_T FOR BRAINS!" award.

Please provide me your address in Bavaria so I can send you the this truly deserved award.

Moreover, I have taken the liberty of entering you in the upcoming competition for the "I'M A NEO-NAZI NUTCASE!" prize.

Hope you don't mind.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 22:00 - ID#189273)
I'll second your motions re Marshall.

silver plate
(Mon Feb 02 1998 22:03 - ID#289468)
6 pak (way out of line )
your post of 21:43 has nothing to do with gold or PM. I suggest you take you take your bias to some other url.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 22:04 - ID#270236)
Sorry, but your analysis just doesn't jive with the facts. The liberal
mainstream press in this country sides with the Palestinians and they
especially hate Bebe. So sticking it to Israel would only serve to
endear Slick more with the boot-lickers in the mainstream press.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 22:10 - ID#346458)
(Marshall re: 21:42 - What a CROCK!!!!!!)
If your sold on what's in that post, I've got some nice isolated land in southern florida ( some water involved ) that you may be interested in. Can make you a great deal on it. You'll be able to recruit and train others there. You'll all get along great with the little pets there.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 22:12 - ID#210253)
Weirdo Cybergeek
Marshall = Nutcake!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 22:14 - ID#374211)
@ Mr. Kitner..Farfel et al... Re Marshall & 6Pack..
Mr. Bart Kitner ,with due respect sir , something needs to be done
to keep this Gold Discussion Forum on said topic "GOLD".
Farfel I will 3rd your motion and further perhaps we can send
Marshall's and 6pack' e-mail to the CIA and FBI,since, we all know "now"
the FBI "really"blew up the world trade centre etc... mosad conspiracy...
what utter crap! If you have nothing to offer relating to Gold may I suggest you post at the url you provided.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 22:16 - ID#57232)
Cherokee: There are several problems deciphering meaning from his quatrains, even if you assume he was prescient. First, problems of multiple meanings during translation. Second, as I recall, his quatrains were not in temporal sequence.
The irony of all this is that what he did is exactly what you would do if you could predict, and you did not want to be executed for doing so publically by your ruler. So -- do we gain anything from reading Nostradamus? I don't know. But - it does make interesting reading. And it does remind you that cycles of peace, intrigue, and war,etc. are still part of the human condition. We have not changed that much over the centuries, we just have bigger and more deadly weapons.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 22:17 - ID#286230)

Here is a recent Randgold report.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 22:18 - ID#374211)
@ Mr. Kitner..Farfel et al... Re Marshall & 6Pack..
Mr. Bart Kitner ,with due respect sir , something needs to be done
to keep this Gold Discussion Forum on said topic "GOLD".
Farfel I will 3rd your motion and further perhaps we can send
"their" e-mail to the CIA and FBI,since, we all know "now"
the FBI "really"blew up the world trade centre etc... mosad conspiracy...
what utter crap! If you have nothing to offer relating to Gold may I suggest you post at the url you provided.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 22:23 - ID#249259)
PDG Losing Venezuelan property??
It appears as though PDG ( Placer Dome ) will be losing the Las Cristinas property in Venezuela to KRY ( Crystallex ) . In the last week, PDG has been dropping & KRY was been climbing on great volume. Las Cristinas has over 11 million ounces with 15 million inferred, rumour is 20 million ounces. check out this sight.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 22:31 - ID#286199)
@ the WSJ Interactive
PRECIOUS METALS: Futures rose, with silver sharply higher after steady technical buying.

In the silver futures market, "we're seeing a bit of a technical bounce," said Peter Cardillo, director of research with Westfalia Investments Inc., an investment advisory firm in New York. George Gero, senior vice president, investments, with Prudential Securities in New York, noted that declining Comex warehouse stock of silver this year is the fundamental driver behind the rally in silver futures. But technical traders were steady buyers Monday, he said.

Meanwhile, gold rose because the sharp rally in the Hong Kong stock market Monday implied that Asian investors will be less likely to sell, said Peter Cardillo, director of research with Westfalia Investments Inc., an investment advisory firm in New York. "With the Asian crisis stabilizing, that removes that threat of investors in those countries selling gold," he said.

On the Comex divison of the Nymex, April gold rose 40 cents to $305.00 an ounce; March silver gained 12.3 cents to $6.248 an ounce.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 22:32 - ID#189273)
Comex gold stocks down 907 today to 427,062. More info at this quote site.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 22:32 - ID#193348)
Interesting stat....from the CANADIAN TAXPAYER...feb. edition
of the 600 billion debt,only 44 billion is actual govt.

overspending...the other 556 billion is accrued interest...
by the way,our family get togethers are a little more
peaceful since my bros have moved over to my side of the
argument on the nanny state....p;ssed off

(Mon Feb 02 1998 22:36 - ID#334174)
@ No Hope For Mankind
Don't know how the question was posed-however 71% of Americans polled
support Iraq attack. Don't know how many negative or undecided but
all the same-do not like the outcome. I ponder what the poll results wud
be in Canada given the same position. Wishful thinking on my part dictates a lot less support. I think we would be poles apart.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 22:40 - ID#189273)
That Nostradamus was one wise man. Read a translation some years ago; the descriptions which paralleled WWII were chilling, and just amazing in their depth of description.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 22:42 - ID#334280)
Lots of conspiracy talk going on tonite, holocaust conspiracy, silver conspiracy, Clinton vs. zionist conspiracy. Wheww.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 22:47 - ID#293211)
US Mint contemplates selling world coinage
The United States Mint is thinking about getting into the foreign coin sales business, but nothing is etched in stone. They are currently sending out promotional brochures and order forms as an informal survey to determine interest among collectors.The closing statement in the promotional brochure for the annual Proof sets reads: ARE YOU INTERESTED IN COLLECTING FOREIGN COINS? They are considering selling coins from a range of countires including Mexico, Canada, Great Britian, France Japan and China. Sourced Coin world Feb 9, 98.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 22:48 - ID#153102)
regional government
"All County and State governments are to be eliminated and replaced with
regional government. These regional governments are already in place.
Regionalism is gradually taking control throughout America."
This is taken from the Cooper site below. Whatever the status of the rest of the assertions made there, of this part there can be no dispute. The modern foundation legislation for the replacement of constitutional country and state government by regional martial law government is the social security act of 1935. To verify the existence of the regions just read the act and visit a social security office.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 22:52 - ID#401237)
Asia Kind Of Pink Tonight
We seem to be getting a little Red in Asia.
Things may not be as well as the DOW thinks.

Then again who knows?


(Mon Feb 02 1998 22:56 - ID#302251)
Date: Mon Feb 02 1998 21:42
Marshall ( Clinton in deep DO-DO with CFR causes his latest
problems ) ID#293211:
The liberal press attack against Clinton, who has traditionally protected
him throughout his presidency is now against him.Clinton angered British
Israelites and Zionists... Monica lewinsky allegations arose after Clinton
refused to back NETANYAHUs plan..

Dear Marshall,

We the Jews control the :

Trilateral Commission,
Biderberg Club,
Most major international banks,
Stock Market,
Gold Trade,
Diamond Trade,
Academic Community in USA,
Legal Profession in USA,
Scientific Community in USA,
Civil Right groups ,
and much more..........

What in the H_ll made you think that Araffat
has any chance of getting his land back ???

Heavy Hitter
(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:04 - ID#403159)
Melt up in progress in PM'S by weeks end. Public is out of market and in love with equities. $500 gold near. Nonbelievers are out in record numbers that gold is headed lower. Rise in equities today will look weak in comparison to the gold bull that's ready to lift off. Fireworks are going to come early this year.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:05 - ID#431263)
Herr T YOUNG--

Couldn't have said it better myself, mein Freund! 24% gains in a single trading session? Gott im Himmel! If that isn't irrational then I don't know the meaning of the term! The ever increasing volatility of this equity paper shuffle is making the trading of precious metals metals and pork bellies look like passbook savings accounts!

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:07 - ID#255151)
Opinions Wanted

I have about $1800 in gambling money in a Schwab options account. Only stock options and LEAPs can be purchased. I would like to know where you all would bet that money now.

Early Riser
(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:10 - ID#228275)
deja vu?
Heavy hitter: Is your post new? Seems like I saw some stuff like that about a year ago. :- )

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:11 - ID#42365)
Bahhh f_ck this religious conspiracy bullshiyat.
bahhhhh GOLD GOLD GOLd isnt it cool.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:13 - ID#227238)
Position of Kitco Kop has been deleted by budget restraints.
Mr. Tzadeak: With all due respect sir, your bitching and complaining about the quality of the posts and the bonfides of the some of the posters is becoming downright annoying. We are what we are and this site is what it is. Basically a gold site but wide open to the occasional off topic stuff brought to us by genuine space cadets. Yesterday it was Golden Cheesehead, in orbital concern that we would all have bio-chips installed in us, by the govt, in order to comemorate Y2K. Heard it from a Mr. Bell, as I recall.

Now I wasn't upset, even though I knew the report to be false, because I have it on good authority that the bio-chips are not in the budget until 2013 - soonest.

With all due respect, please lighten up.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:16 - ID#270224)
Silver is in a bull market !!!!!!
And just in case you wonder what is going on in the stock market e.g New York, Indonesia, Malaysia remember the words of John Templeton:

"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria..."

I think we are in the early stages of the euphoria phase.

Silver excluded !!!!!!!!! ( Banks can't print ot!!!! and don't own it )

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:18 - ID#162148)
Spoos, etc
Loyal Americans strode confidently forward today and bought shares in Big Bubba, Inc.: ) Seriously, I think we are approximately halfway through a move that will take us above 1100 SP8H sometime in March. The action in gold looks corrective to me, but, for the sake of my Kitco friends, I hope I'm wrong. If we dont take out the $277 level by the time we see the next intermediate top in stocks, I AM wrong.

Marshall: You seem to be a little weak on both current events and history.

ziva: I dont think there is any factual basis for your assertion that Jews control the Bilderbergers.: )

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:24 - ID#401237)
Earthquake in Mexico
Monday February 2, 10:56 pm Eastern Time
Earthquake shakes Mexico's Pacific coast

John Minsch of the U.S. Geological Survey in Golden, Colorado, gave the quake's preliminary magnitude as 6.1 on the Richter scale. He said the epicenter was 35 miles ( 60 kilometres ) east-northeast of Puerto Angel in Oaxaca state.


(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:24 - ID#287207)
Oldman: Have you a projection as to where the "the next intermediate top in stocks will be?

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:24 - ID#162148)
Earl: Sent mail--returned. Wrong address. email me at

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:25 - ID#57232)
Two items before chores for the night
All: I think D.A.'s post is pretty convincing. I think the most secure approach is to maintain investments in areas that are inflation-proof, but also can survive world-wide uncertainty and instability: Oil and gold. Other investments may be less likely to withstand a market downturn, which could still occur.

One other item is that Israel is abuzz over the situation in Iraq. I saw one post that expects US action with Iraq this month. Another stated that the US expects Israel not to retaliate if attacked

( for obvious reasons ) . Another post stated that Iraq has about 40 missles, but that deaths from an Iraqi gas attack would be minimal if the public had time to don gas masks. This may be in reference to the less deadly WMD that Saddam has. I don't know if this is accurate.

It is interesting that our CIA director George Tenet just testified in front of the Senate Select Commitee on Intelligence ( 1/28/98 ) and stated that Iraq could return to production of weapons of mass destruction ( WMA ) if the inspections ceased. Also, he expressed the concern that Saddam is eroding the effectiveness of the sanctions. George Tenet also mentioned that Russia has sent SA-10 air defense batteries to Cyprus ( I think I have this right ) , so Greek-Turkish conflict in the Aegean is reaching a higher level of uncertainty.

I don't know what to think about all this, except that Israel is taking the Iraq situation very seriously.

I think the big problem is not Iraq, but the Greek/Turkey situation, and hardening of Arab positions against Israel, with an apparent alliance between Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Egypt. I don't think the US can effectively be the policeman in that situation -- if it unravels.

Interesting times we live in -- trouble brewing -- and Iraq is only part of it.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:26 - ID#28585)
IMHO We are in the EARLY stage of a silver bull and the late stage of DOW EUPHORIA.

Silver should reach at least 9.00 an ounce by year end.

( P.S. Your namesake, KO ( Coca-cola ) , has been trading at a P/E of approx.
45 times earnings for a couple of years now....seems like late stage DOW insanity to me?? )

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:27 - ID#293211)
US MINT unveils new Platinum design
The reverse of the Proof 1998-W American Eagle platinum coin will bear US Mint Scultor-Engraver John M. Mercantis design of an American Eagle flying low along the coast of the northeastern seaboard at moonrise.
The design will be the first in a five year series of eagles featured in regional landscapes from across the US. They will appear on the reverse of proof platinum coins only. PS To who it may concern I am a Messianic JEW who loves the truth. .

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:30 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Consolidation after recent runup.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:31 - ID#227238)
Oldman: Yeah. My ISP had a beef, over names. The other guy had deeper pockets. The ISP name has been modified to worldaccessnet. That's the only change.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:33 - ID#153102)
I would suggest a Leap Put on Coca-Cola. 45 times earnings is a hefty price premium and the currency and economic chaos overseas is bound to impact earnings negatively.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:35 - ID#401237)
Monday February 2, 9:29 pm Eastern Time

Japan banks may face worse fund shortage--Saeki

TOKYO, Feb 3 ( Reuters ) - Japanese banks may face a more serious fund shortage that could result in a vicious cycle in which tight lending policies would lead to corporate failures and a further credit crunch, Naotaka Saeki, former chairman of the Federation of Bankers' Associations, said on Tuesday.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:36 - ID#162148)
selby: I said in my post that we were about halfway through the move. From 1/12 we have about 90 handles already. Should top out a little north of 1100 SP8H by the middle of March.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:36 - ID#28585)
Please refer to this heading to discover the "truth."

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:39 - ID#227238)
Marshall: Ya had us fooled. For a moment there, we thought you trying to tell us that you were the Messiah. What a relief. This place is always such a mess. No place to entertain important visitors.

Heavy Hitter
(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:40 - ID#403159)
Early Riser, your memory has not served you well. However you may be invested or not in PM's. My guess is you are not.. Do as you wish, but I tell you now it's the opportunity of a life time. Most are blinded by what they here in the media and by politics. The majority are going to be wrong and the stock market is proving exactly that by todays action. 6 months from now we will all know the answer but your decision today will only make or lose money tomorrow. Good investing.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:47 - ID#431263)
Herr Earl--

I didn't say I believed Art Bell's guest Shawn David Morton! But you goota' admit the concept is downright fascinating! Art Bell is heard each night by over 20,000,000 Americans! Surely there's at least one or two out of such a number that has their feet planted squarely on terra firma!

Call me a space cadet if you want to, but I'll entertain a fool's folly if he makes a good rational case for his views until some magi like yourself comes around to debunk it! If you really know this stuff is off the wall then why not present your evidence? We're all waiting with golden chesse ears!
all rational adults here on Kitco, 'cept Hepcat and co.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:50 - ID#227238)
@ regional govt
Mozel: I was surprised by your comments regarding the groundwork for regional government. That it resided in the SS legislation was even more surprising. Curious place for it. ...... It would seem to me that even the most activist judge would have a difficult time stretching the constitution enough to usurp state powers completely. ..... But then our constitution is a "living document" isn't it? The term "living document", I think has come to mean: That we will distort completly the definition of common words, until we are able to do as we please.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:50 - ID#189273)
Re your options account. Use your find function ( probably control-F ) and go over Cherokee's posts of recent days. He plays the long shots, way out of the money options that are cheap but can offer big rewards if a market turns.

I was going to ask if any of our fellow posters are playing oil now.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:56 - ID#227238)
Golden C: It wasn't my intent to lump you into the space cadet category. But I understand how it could be perceived that way. ..... BTW, I did debunk it. .... It's not in the budget until 2013 .... or until BC's popularity reaches 98.3%. Whichever ocurrs first. ....... Hell, on that basis you may be more right than me. .... Damn, I hate when that happens.

(Mon Feb 02 1998 23:57 - ID#431263)
By the way, Earl, you can present your evidence directly to Art Bell himself for immediate broadcast to the world. The number is 1-800-917-4278. But then you'd be permanently on record--if ya get my drift!