Where is silver headed? Is it over bought at 7.25?

Another: Could you tell us more about what Peter Munk may have done? If I understand correctly, he has locked in the price for much of the gold production he has for some time, at a profitable price. Has he done something else through the LBMA that will risk bankrupcy? He is perhaps not as frugal and astute as Pierre Lassonde, but ABX does have a good, generally untarnished reputation for shrewd operational decisions.

http://router.minot.com/~bohl/display.pl

Mr. Aurator,
As in my 23:23 post, I cannot comment on this.
167 tonnes ?

I love these posters like goose that dont work for a living that post 200 words with 300 spaces and expect people to read this shit. Thank God Bart has Hard Disc space to spare. Please Goose find a life with some Internet news provider ---Good Night ---What a waste of time !!!!

WetGold and JTF,
I will reply on the 07th .

All: I should have figured this out myself. I would think there are two ways ABX might have sold their gold production forward at, say $400/oz. Either in a lump sum, or in monthly payments. What if the buyer is paying ABX in installments and defaults, but gold is still less than $400/oz when this happens? Then ABX is left holding the bag. Perhaps Peter Munk knows this has already happened, and this is why we are getting less than stellar rumors about ABX ( comments, farfel? ) .

It is fortunate indeed for many mining companies that the gold bear is ending now -- if it persisted another year, gold mining procduction at the North American mines might have come to a standstill!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980204/asia_usa_s_2.html

Another: Is your reluctance to comment on the Aus and Korean gold situation related to a lack of personal knowledge or an unwillingness to devulge that which may be sensitive information?

TZADEAK: For a moment there, I thought Lawrence Summers was telling us that we are having a crisis. Isn't it reassuring that it was all a typo?

Oris 23:53 You are correct that a prepared very large unit should be able to mobilize ( move out ) in 7-10 days. The problem with V Corps is that it is not ready in some of the following ways.
1. Not enough troops on hand to fll the small to large subordinate units.
2. Individual soldier training is not up to standard. New soldiers arrive without all the training they need to be fully functional in combat units.
3. Due to budget constraints all necessary euipment may not be onhand. It takes time to requisition and receive this equipment.
4. Equipment on hand may not be up to maintenance standards. Again, time to fix.
5. Unit training is not up to standard. This can only begin once the units are at or near full strength and the needed equipment is on hand and properly maintained. Unit train is the soldiers and subordinate units training together to attain the high level of teamwork necessary in modern combat units.
V Corps is the primary defense of Western Europe. That it has been allowed to decay to this extent is major scandal. Clinton has left himself with backing down, bluffing, ineffective airstrikes, wasting lives using unpepared units ( this was what we did at the start in Korea ) or going nuclear. It is a sorry state of affairs. Clinton's legacy is now assured.

You think about it:

How much silver will be produced as a byproduct of gold mines which are unprofitable below $300/oz U.S.?

Same goes for base metals in this deflationary market.

Silver has one huge advantage over gold - the central banks don't control it and Warren the largest private silver banker in the world doesn't flip his investments.

I'd bet on Warren hanging on for along time. Which means that if gold or base metals don't move silver has to go up until it becomes so expensive that people actually start melting their silverware.

JTF: Interesting reasoning and not out of the realm of possibility. ABX, in this case, would likely get an extra pop in return for not receiving a lump sum payment. ..... Interest payments flying around everywhere. Like loose cartwheels.

Old Soldier: You post to Oris is ominous indeed! How would we compare in readiness to other European armed forces, North Korea or Russia? Your post makes me think that the Israelis might have to protect us in a major skirmish! No wonder the Israelis are reluctant to patiently wait for us to defend them if Iraq lobbs a few missles into Israel, as they did during the Kuwait war. However, if the Israelis retaliate, there is no functional use for our carrier forces in the gulf. What would we do then?

How does one in Canada trade gold & silver options. I was surprised to find out that my broker ( Investorline ) doesn't deal with them. Any recommendations?

You'll live longer and sleep better.

.

Old Soldier: I happened to read Col. Hackworth's first book when first published and found it a first class read. But, that opinion hardly qualifies as peer review. BTW, you mentioned an officer by the name of Moore. Is that the same fella who wrote a book about his engagement in the Ia Drang valley? The book was absolutely riveting, to say the least.

Thank you very much, initially I didn't pay attention
to the word "V-Corps". Now it's clear. Still, looks no good
for any military unit to be so slow. Bill Clinton is
no good at military affairs at all, and he can not be
good due to his past experience.

If any military unit needs 180 days to move out,
this unit is dead as a military unit.I'm no expert
on military affairs, but I can imagine what it all
means...

Thank you again.

There is another "small item" for the silver market at the present time. According to Berkshires press release yesterday they had taken delivery of 80 mil oz and would taking delivery of the rest by March 8. The initial 80 mil draw down almost exactly paralleled the COMEX stockpile drawdown over the same time period.

So does the fact that Buffet will be taking delivery of another 40 million ounces by March 8 mean that COMEX stockpiles will decline by 40 million ounces ( approx 10 million a week ) ???

Not necessarily.

But based on the available facts ( such as they are ) it may well play out that way....

But hey! No Problem!! There is 69 million "eligible" ounces left in the COMEX warehouses....

Sasha: You will need to set up an account with a commodities broker. Stock brokers do not deal in them.

Typed in [brokers] in comfind. This is what I got. I don't know a thing about them. Good luck.
oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooCategory Search Results
CATEGORY: Commodity Brokers

Search all of ComFind Search only in Commodity Brokers

4 for Country: CA.

HURON COMMODITIES INC.
( +1 ) 519-233-5206
P.O. BOX 1353 * CLINTON, ON N0M 1L0 * CANADA
[Keywords: broker commodities trading grain barley corn wheat oats soybeans pulse-crop ]

JNOVIELLI
( +1 ) 514-728-9052
8826 BRESSANI * MONTREAL, PQ H1R3C2 * CANADA
[Keywords: gold bullion sugar coffeebeans bulkemail ]

RBC DOMINION SECURITIES INC.
( +1 ) 250-995-5007
#300, 1803 DOUGLAS STREET * VICTORIA, BC V8T 5C3 * CANADA
[Keywords: ]

THE FUTURES GUY
( +1 ) 403-262-5875
4280, 150 6 AVE S.W. * CALGARY, AB T2P 3Y7 * CANADA
[Keywords: commodity futures broker investment trader finance research analysis free ]

JTF, actually, as a citizen of an ally of the US, I kinda find Old Soldier's revelations to be, ahhemm, invigorating. Did you see my post the other night about the relevance of K cycles to E Economies?

Earl: Go back and have a look at ANOTHER's Post at 23:23 last night {{Illuminati conspiracists, look@that number}} I think that the Korean Government has played a shell game with some gold loans and is in deep do do. Now, if I was a Rogue Trader ( I Prefer the word thief ) employed by the Korean CB, and I had a line of Credit, Guaranteed by the Sovereing Govt Of Korea... I could borrow gold and play big time, with other people's money..Speculate in the PMs, the Gold market... Do you suppose we are seeing some sandal ( purposeful spello ) develop in the Korean Govt?

Perhaps just idle conjecture..but, then again, all conjecture is idle, and some of the worst idle conjecture is conjecture about idols.


idol@taurator

GFD: As you peer into the darkness from "the edge of light", do you feel a bit of dis-ease over the relatively tepid response on the part of gold today? Somehow I expected the spillover effect to be a little more pronounced than it was. The XAU action was about right but bullion should have done more. IMO.

PH -

I apologize for the snipe. That whole vronsky - Bart thing made me a bit sensitive on that subject. I read the TB piece on silver leasing and I think his silver views are somewhat more on track than his views on gold leasing.

All I do, all day long, is trade precious metals. Last year was a good year for platinum, but generally I trade silver more than any other metal. It is simply more volatile than the others and a trader needs volatility. To risk quoting myself, "Silver is the most purely manipulated market in the world."

I view any news about precious metals with a jaded eye, and silver especially so. I have seen this same game played throughout the years. The rush is on, everyone piles on board, and then they slam it into the dirt. Everybody looses all their money. I caution everybody to give it a rest, silver always gives you another whack at it.

I was trained as an interrogator when I was in the Army in the early 1980s. Interrogations fall under two broad categories. When the battle is in the field and the heady vapor of war, spoil, and villainy is in the air, any information a prisoner may have could be vital to the lives of men in the field. Information on enemy troop strength, position, armament, etc. can save many lives. Since the tactical battlefield is dynamic and fluid, information has a very short half life. Reports of troop positions even 12 hours old can become entirely useless in the high speed warfare of today.

Since tactical information is so perishable, Tactical interrogations waste little time on the niceties of discerning a proper set of psychological approaches in which to convince a prisoner to sell out everything he holds dear and to betray his family, friends, and country. These approaches, while extremely effective, usually take some time and are considered a luxury in tactical situations. Instead, certain effective approaches have been proven to be effective and expedient, and quite illegal.

The most famous of which is the Helicopter approach. For the uninitiated, this is a simple process by which you take a small group of prisoners up in a helicopter and systematically question them. It is very important to start with the lowest ranking prisoner as will become evident. Escort the lowest ranking prisoner to the door of the helicopter and ask a question, doesn't really matter what the question is, the interrogator is usually not interested in the answer. When the answer does come, the interrogator sighs and throws the prisoner out of the helicopter. By repeating this process with increasingly higher ranking prisoners, the interrogator usually finds the higher ranking officer has decided to be entirely truthful and cooperative with the interrogator. This approach was actually used with some success in Vietnam. I have even heard stories of pulling the whole thing off while hovering about 10 feet off the ground. Another popular approach has to do with field telephones, alligator clips, and testicles and is likewise very effective.

The flip side to this tactical brutality is the strategic interrogation. This is a leisurely process is more concerned with accuracy and detail than timeliness. While I was in the army, we were doing strategic interrogations of Afghani refugees who were involved with repelling the Russian invasion. Since we were not combatants, and the information we were after had no real tactical urgency, we could take our time and build the relationship, with the idea that the most accurate information is volunteered information.

This background has served me well in separating the crap from the roses throughout the years. It has also instilled in me a great skepticism that, in the best journalistic sense, demands that I see corroborative evidence or recognize a trusted source of any information I receive. Information is useless unless you know the source.

This rather long winded explanation is to perhaps illustrate the difference with the way I view these markets, and the way most Kitco posters view these markets. I trade metals for a living. I'm looking at what will happen tomorrow, or next week. Next month is a year from now, and next year is a millennium away. I take a very tactical view of these markets, while most here seem to be focusing on the long term outlook. The Ted Butler piece falls into the strategic category. I don't necessarily agree with his take, but it is of no consequence at all in the current silver market. What happens between now and the end of the month is in the trenches, bayonet in the chest with a viscous twist to stir up the internal organs a bit, tactical trading and long term leasing policies will not help you here.

The battlefield analogy is apt. Many will live or die ( financially ) due to the decisions they make about silver in the next couple weeks. This market is not a sure thing, and I am of the opinion that missing profits is not as bad as taking losses. I caution everybody against leaping into this market. There will be another shot at it, maybe the potential will not be quite as large, but the commensurate risk with be much smaller too. Sorry about the many, many words, by I did manage to relate it all to metals so I guess I'm still on subject.

A little piece of my little knowledge on Russian military.

Russian paratropper division can be deployed in 48 to
72 hours, men+light armour. Special forces - in 24 hours.
Other units may need much more time...

I guess it is also true for the U.S. units of the same
profile, but Old Soldier knows better..

Aurator: Something like the fella in Singapore, who brought Barings down? Or the Japanese copper trader? The conditions have certainly been ripe for such an event in the gold market. Hubris extremis????

not me,unless your selling them naked,I have some 290 and 310 april gold and am looking to start on june ,I prefer close to the money and there are many ways to use options,anyway I use them so that I DO SLEEP better, ( lot of movement in spot gold last 10 min?London not up yet where are they buying spot at anyway?

Earl: I think that gold and silver are effectively decoupled for the time being. EVENTUALLY gold will follow the other pgms in the sense of being dragged along psycologically or when it's own fundamentals start to click in. The problem with gold is that it is very much under the thumbs of the CBs and so must follow a destiny that is different from that of silver. This condition may not last forever and may now be changing as we speak ( type? ) . But I would not at all be surprised by ( say ) 15.0 silver and 280 gold in the near term.

People are back on track talking about PMs now so I hate to stray, but I just have to know: What does Tony Packo pickle? I have no clue. I tried Vlasic Hot Jalapeno Slices. You know how. Vodka-Pickle-Vodka-Pickle-Vodka-Pickle. After three cycles it's easy. Is jalapeno hot enough? Maybe I should try Jabanero?

Mr. Miro, you were kind enough to state the following: "... BTW, Ill be participating as a speaker in a few SPG conferences together with Ed Yardeni, Tony Keys, Ed Yourdon, Capers Jones, .etc. If you have any question, or violent disagreement with what they have to say, let me know - Ill pass your opinion or questions directly to them. "

I'd appreciate if you could pass this on to Mr. Yourdon regarding his recent book "Time Bomb 2000". I'd also be curious to find his technical experts on communication systems with references including names, titles, telephone numbers. Thanx for your help.

Here we go for starters:

"... if the iron triangle goes down, most of what we refer to as 'modern society' goes down with it...", page 316.

What the hell is the "iron triangle" ??? Is not the envelope being pushed a little too far.

"... we are suggesting that some phone companies could stop providing service to their customers for a few days, or perhaps amonth ... or possibly longer...", page 317.

The probability is very small ( my guess: less than 0.1 ) . Why ? Major switch manufacturers have been testing these scenarios for several years and have a handle on know bugs. What about unknown conditions ? New office cutovers excercise the change in the clock as a normal part of their Method of Procedure ( MOP ) . The major manufacturers comprise 95% of the world market with Siemen AG ( EWSD ) with the lion share. More examples if needed ...

"... Although the switching systems are not responsible for billing or any of the other accounting and finance applications within the phone company ...", page 318.

FALSE. ALL Regional Bell Operating Companies ( RBOCs ) are responsible for billing and other Operations, Administrations & Maintenance ( OA&M ) functions. In fact, there are several forums that allow the RBOCs to communicate these problems amongst themselves. Some are RBOC generated and others are chaired by the switch manufacturers. In addition, these adjunct applications have ISDN/X.25/etc interfaces that directly connect to the switch and are redundantly administered and logged. More info if needed.

"...What makes the situation particularly difficult is that long-distance calls and overseas calls almost inevitably involve multiple network connections, which may have been manufactured by several different vendors..."., page 318.

HELLLOOOOO. This is how it operates now. You may call the guy across the street and "involve multiple network connections". The network connections involve several different vendors NOW -- which is why standards are generated and met. Interconnectivity ---

I could probably go if asked.


Miro -- thanx again for your fine post BUT please don't get me wrong --- I love making money and I'm not ashamed of saying so -- BUT --- let us mutually agree that the motives of individuals are sometimes not what they seem.

NOW --- let's go PMs --- buy/hoard/buy/hoard... hide....

Sasha-try any of the regular brokerage houses. Yorkton Securities $60 US per gold contract of 100 ounces silver 50$ US per. 5000 ounce contract. Scotia McLeod, one quote I had was 4% of total but this varies with the broker.

GFD: You mirror my thoughts short term. Another leg down.

GFD: My central concern is the pyschological damage to gold that would result from divergent moves.

While we may not be in a position to make a difference, we can be aware, and can position our portfolios accordingly. Thank you for taking the time to share your concerns with us.

Prometheus - always getting hell for bringing light to mankind

INDIA; destroy its currency and try to force gold and silver hoards loose from their populace while providing safe haven status, compliments of the US buck and stable markets. HOhoho.
This excersise will fail miserably as all currencies will become suspect as paper tigers in the fiat jungle.
The battle that was waged successfully by lies and propagander to stop AU initial moves during 1993 is now to be lost.

Buffet has the largest share position in Coca Cola stock. Judging by what's occuring in the beverage business in Asian and Latin America, THINGS PROBABLY ARE NOT GOING BETTER WITH COKE!! ( Second Quarter disaster awaiting Coke shareholders ( stock trades at 43 times earnings ( yuk, yuk, yuk ) )



THE GLOBE AND MAIL News Summary

From Canada's National Newspaper, ( c ) 1997 The Globe and Mail


Thursday, Feb. 5, 1998

Seagram is losing ground in Asia


MONTREAL - Seagram Co. Ltd.'s booze business is getting hammered in Asia, prompting the liquor and entertainment
giant to warn investors that operating profit at its once-dependable spirits division will decline by about $175-million
( U.S. ) this year.

Montreal-based Seagram made the disclosure Wednesday after announcing that it has taken a $60-million charge on its
Asian operations to cover severance costs, lost receivables and asset writedowns related to the currency and economic
crisis gripping the region.

Read your last post with interest. I think, over time, many things lose their initial meaning, and become just another notch in the belt of experience. It's all ok, over time, if you catch my drift. Thanks for the post. It's good to know know where you're coming from. I've been trading PM on the futures exchanges since 84. It's all starting to form patterns, and lose the glitz. Soon will come the wisdom of age.

Wasn't KO at 45 * earnings just a year ago? 43 * earnings seems like the end of the road.

Yet another news source about the beverage biz disaster occuring in Asia.


FINANCIAL POST

Thursday, February 5, 1998

Seagram suffers from Asian flu hangover

By RICHARD SIKLOS
New York Bureau Chief The Financial Post
Asian troubles ripped into Seagram Co.'s spirits and wine operations, prompting the Montreal-based company to take a
US$60-million charge and reducing second-quarter profit by 80%.
Seagram reported yesterday that spirits revenue in the Asia-Pacific region plummeted by more than 50% in the quarter
ended Dec. 31. It did not give a precise figure, but in fiscal 1997 liquor sales in Asia-Pacific accounted for about US$1
billion of US$12.6 billion in total revenue.
The slump comes as Seagram is reported to be holding talks with Allied
Domenq PLC, another liquor giant, about merging or allying operations. A
Seagram official also told analysts it is "highly likely" the firm will bid for
Dewar's Scotch whisky and Bombay gin, which are being divested as a
condition of the merger of Grand Metropolitan PLC and Guinness PLC.
"We're disappointed, obviously, that the meltdown in Asia happened,"
Seagram chief executive Edgar Bronfman Jr. said. He said earnings before
interest, tax, depreciation and amortization ( EBITDA ) for Seagram's spirits
and wine group will be off about US$175 million in fiscal 1998 from the
US$813 million reported in 1997.
The one-time charge includes US$15 million for severance and a
US$30-million provision for bad debt, primarily in China and Korea. "I think
they were necessary," analyst Martin Romm at Credit Suisse First Boston
Inc. said of the cuts.
Jill Krutick at Salomon Smith Barney Inc., who has a "neutral" rating on
Seagram stock, lowered her 1998 earnings per share estimate by US30 to
US70.
Analysts said Seagram executives' straight talk on the Asian crisis and
confidence that growth will be restored there was behind the market's
thumbs-up to the bad news.
Seagram shares ( VO/TSE, NYSE ) closed at $49.70 in Toronto, up $1.30.
In New York they gained US$1 1/8 to close at US$34 1/2.
Seagram earned US$28 million ( US8 per share ) in the quarter ended Dec.
31, compared with net income of US$161 million ( US43 ) a year earlier.
Revenue decreased to US$3.54 billion from US$3.75 billion.
EBITDA - which is the measure by which Seagram believes its performance is best measured - declined to US$464
million from US$594 million in the quarter. EBITDA for spirits and wine decreased to US$253 million from US$315
million. EBITDA for other beverage operations, represented largely by Tropicana Beverage Group, rose to US$72 million
from US$65 million.
Bronfman declined to comment on the reported talks with Allied Domenq, but said "we really don't have any plans to
divide the company" between beverages and entertainment.
The bad news from Asia overshadowed major gains in EBITDA at 80%-owned Universal Studios Inc., which increased
by 33% before special gains to US$199 million from US$150 million a year earlier. Most notably, EBITDA in the filmed
entertainment division doubled to US$113 million from US$65 million. The gain was buoyed by video releases and the
inclusion of US$29 million in incremental EBITDA from USA Networks Inc., in which Universal upped its ownership to
100% from 50% in October.
Bronfman is in talks with a Korean joint-venture distribution partner to buy them out. He said Seagram would also like to
buy out its partner in Thailand.


You can trust your Government to make certain that the promises attached to the paper you hold are kept or you can hold gold and tell the likes of Rubin and Greenspan that you donot trust their judgement on where to invest your savings!

They're buying silver because they are not "allowed" to buy gold.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980205/iraq_china_1.html

I live in Canada and trade options
through Ira Epstein in Chicago.
-Discount brokerage ( $16 commission )
-free end-of-day data
-free charting software
-no complaints re: service
Try John Hackner
1-800-284-1093

Good Luck!

With such a lofty P/E ratio, you would think Coke had invented gene splicing or something equally innovative and esoteric.

However, it only sells sugar flavored water.

.

dear sir,
I agree completely that coke sells sugar flavored water. It's darned good flavored water, however. Not ready to short it yet. Keep buying a 12 pack a week for the kids.

Wishing you the best that trading and life has to offer
Prometheus

Thursday February 5, 1:03 am Eastern Time

Pertamina confirms to cut fuel products import

JAKARTA, Feb 5 ( Reuters ) - Indonesian state oil company Pertamina said on Thursday that imports of fuel products would drop by half in February and were likely to be zero in March.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980205/oil_indone_1.html

HighRise

But, based on Seagram's announcement, it seems the Asians have stopped buying booze for themselves ( as much as they need it right now ) ...and probably stopped buying Coke for the kids too.

Best of luck with Coke at ( raucous laughter ) 43 times P/E.

Farfel want to acknowledge and moan about your recent posting because there's not enough time to act upon them. Just imagine the market that has yet to discover the joy of an evening colored by Seagram's scotch-colored water.

It's enough to send you to the markets buying in the morning. I'll be likely passing this one up for buying later in the week. Time bows to no master.

MSFT
They are being sued by eleven states and the Federal government. If I am correct they are also being investigated overseas for market control.

Stock @ 150+ today up 20 pts from just a few days ago - go figure the real PE on this one.

MSFT/Wintel drive the hitech markets. Intel is flying high even though IBM anouced a new 1000 mgz power pc chip.

All of this while 1/3 of the worlds markets, their markets, have crashed. This alone suggest that they are 1/3 over priced doesn't it?

DOW 8000 x 66% = 5300

HighRise

Microsoft is about to get "creamed" ( and I'm not talking about pies either ) .

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980204/focus_buff_4.html

If silver takes a savage profit-taking drop soon, what do you think is going to happen to gold???

I have found over the years of experience with some old friends, Black Jack Daniels and Mr. Dewars, that I tended to make a fool out of my self while I was with them and the next morning I couldn't find my car let alone buy Gold.

Dewars is Scottish like Haggis.

As this financial crises spreads Booze will be a better investment than Oil - unless our buddy BJ Clinton starts a world war III.

HighRise

Gazing, tired eyed, at Kitcos 24 hour silver chart with the numbers on the left blurred because so many have to fit there. That black line is edging toward the rose coloured pipe in the center. Like a wall of hot rising gasses that will force it suddenly higher. And today is only Thursday! What the hell is going to happen on Friday? No wonder life at Kitco is so addictive.

this document can be obtained from


http://www.wire.net.au/~jsmith/charts/silver/brokerpage1

http://www.wire.net.au/~jsmith/charts/silver/brokerpage2

http://www.wire.net.au/~jsmith/charts/silver/brokerpage3

any queries to jsmith@wire.net.au

We had some discussion at this site a while back that MSFT, Gates and Techies were into PMs. Others laughed at this, I said that it makes sense to me. Why wouldn't they use PMs as a hedge against $150 MSFT stock?

I was interested in who were the initial investors in RYO? RYO is a next door neighbor to them.
Just a thought?

HighRise

Nick@C
Zigackly.. Which is why I have to look at Burt's low projections again. ( US$272 or, perhaps US$240? ) Didja see anuver talking about the nuclear meltdown of paper? I have missed paper opportunities, but I have bought some loverly gold....including a gold bullion kiwi, a few sovs, and a beatiful sov ring with St George motif replicated in the filigree of the mount, and some Chinese 9999 ingots. Not yet seen this Waitangi coin though.. ( and it's Waitangi day tomorrow- Public holiday ) We gotta drought, temps in the 30'sC, 90'sF. No rain fore weeks, my domestic water has run out. This is the worst drought in a century, say S. Island farmers of Marlborough who have seen no real rain for more than 12 months.

El Nio's chaos and flux ( thanx cherokee ) are causing havoc. Indonesia has food riots ( famine ) and uncontrollable forest fires... ( plague ) how far behind rides war?


Most of us think the worst problem we face is not plague so much as plaque.

tHIS IS A SECOND ATTEMPT TO POST THES URL

http://www.wire.net.au/~jsmith/charts/silver/brokerpage1

http://www.wire.net.au/~jsmith/charts/silver/brokerpage2

http://www.wire.net.au/~jsmith/charts/silver/brokerpage3

any queries to jsmith@wire.net.au

Thanks for earlier reply on Silver. We need your comments to keep from getting too carried away with euphoria! ( Hey Jack, that link about $10.0 silver doesn't work! )

Let's hope we can all profit from the moves ahead....as the public at large cathes on th what's happening

I like Royal Oak's style but feel that Bill Gates will deal only in the real things ( AU AND AG ) , in other words he will listen to his pal WB. IMHO ( In my hopefull opinion )

Highrise
( Plse explain to a geographically-challenged antipodean ) Do you mean MSFT are physically down the road from each other, therefore eat at the same restaurants...? Wasn't this the rumour here while gold was in those far off halcyon, almost mystical days of plus 340?

Remember when noone believed gold at 325???
=========
Where's that village idiot?
I need to examine the past
to get a pitch on the future
==========

peraurator

$10 silver would be nice, post was by Joe Smith and may all his wishes be granted.

MSFT has another problem that no one talks about. In an effort to force the public into a situation where they always have to upgrade, he has fragmented his market.

There are more MAC OSs out there than Windows 95.

What I have been told is that Windows NT ,3.1, 98 etc. are not compatible.

The typical MSFT buyer is happy if they can type a letter and their Kid can play a game.
They have no interest or reason to buy Windows 98. MSFT has to have new markets to grow - ASIA.

Most people do not know much about the new Apple OS that is in Beta now, their acquisition of NeXt and Steve Jobs was monumental. That is why MSFT gave them 100 million.

Watch Oracle & Apple and the new NT computers. Look at Apple's board of directors. There may not be a need for Windows in the future. IMHO.

A very rapidly changing industry. Things can change FAST.

HighRise

Just bought a book "Warren Buffet Speaks" The first chapter is about how Buffet lives his life. His hobby is playing Bridge. He regularly plays with William H. Gates Sr. thru an online site called ImagiNation ( doesn't say if it's web based or not ) . Don't discount any rumors about Gates buying PMs. I don't think golf courses are the only place business deals are arranged or information is shared.

3 pages have been posted on the following URL in word7 format

http://www.wire.net.au/~jsmith/charts/silver/brokerpage1.doc

http://www.wire.net.au/~jsmith/charts/silver/brokerpage2.doc

http://www.wire.net.au/~jsmith/charts/silver/brokerpage3.doc

farfel
your ludicrous laughter at Coke's PE of 42 reminded me of some of the puff we heard here in 87, ( you could all benefit from an historical look down under imho ) like how with NZ PE at only 18, while Japan ave PE was in the 40's, was a REASON for undervalued NZ stocks... Crsus, PE of 42 you say? It's like those 3 generation mortgages on sushi bars in down town TOkyo one heard of before 92,,...Oh to be such an optimist.

village idiot?... past and pitch on the future Not sure what you are talking about?

Yes they are neighbors and most likely they do have lunch together - heck I dont know, I am just curious.

Gold at 325 noone believed what does that mean? No one believed what?
Gold 340 or 240 whatever. Heck I would like to see Gold at 500 or 753.50.

All that I suggest is, that if MSFT goes from 150 to 50, that may suggest that Gold could have a reason to go from 280/340 range to a range of what 400 and above. I dont know, just a thought.

What is wrong with someone using PMs as a hedge? I do it, because in the past when my business tanks Gold has gone up. Now, I mentioned here in the past that my problem, as with many others, is one of not having gone through a deflationary / depression situation. I am trying to switch gears and I just hope and pray that I am making the correct investment decisions.

So far Gold has gone from 350 to 280 and my business is running at full speed - I am not complaining. I just hope that when my business hits the skids Gold goes to 400+

Thats all, nothing more.

HighRise

Highrise
I have only used Mac since about 1989, Mac User loyalty may have finally reached its limit. I have 2 Macs at home, 2 at the office, also 2 windows 95, and an early NT server. I can also run 2 of the win 95s as 3.11. I need to do all this to test the specialised software we produce, it must run on all these platforms because our clients have all these platforms. All of us in the Company prefer Macs, always have, Our clients are now 90%+ on Win. They do not know what they're missing. THe initial apparent cheaper cost quickly becomes overshadowed by the costs of keeping a gosh darned Win computer running....He deserved a pie in the face...
BTW, here is the URL for a virtual pie

http://www.pie-face.com

G'day Auracious

On the way back from Queensland we drove through lush tropical to the same conditions you have described--for much of NSW. The little babe has a lot to answer for. Stinking hot and dry here. I have given up watering the 'lawn' and am settling for a yard that looks like Death Valley. It'll all come back when that stuff from the sky comes down--have forgotten what it's called.

Always a good time to buy more coins,mate. Sovs are very good tradable coins--well known--.2354 oz--so a good size--long history--have got some well over 100 y.o..Chinese coins/bars also good. Chinese respect gold ( unlike yer average western dork ) and in an 'emergency' those coins/bars mean your family will eat--not a small consideration when the supermarket shelves are all empty.

I am still of the opinion that we ( goldbugs ) have some more suffering in store. I would be very surprised if gold zoomed up from here. I expect at least one more trial by fire--so have got my asbestos suit on ( tryin' not to breath in the fibres, however ) . When I'm uncertain, I sell my paper gold. So for now "Let's get physical..physicallllll............."

Yes, this Apple situation is very trying on those who know how much better the MAC system is than Wintel etc.

We have a great computer store here with an excellent MAC dept. Apple just announced a CompUSA only deal we don't know if we are going to loose this store or not.

CompUSA has only one store locally and it has gone down hill And if this happens nationwide it will hurt Apple.

Apple is depending on direct sales and a specialized market which should hold up better under a depressed market.

Apple has already taken the hit they are lean and mean MSFT 20,000 people and growing.

At some point one would think that people would jump from the DOS system once a viable alternative presents itself - is it "Rhapsody"?

The neXt 6 months will tell.

HighRise

Rubin said today that he sees little chance of the Asia crisis re-igniting, yet he urges Congress to allocate 18 billion to IMF.
This taxpayer money will be used against any and all countries/indiviguals who have a dislike for fiat currencies.
Thus the monied elite will use taxpayers money to attack honest money and to the detriment of the USofA. Same old baloney.

Highrise"

"Village idiot"

from the metaphor derived from the fact that a market price can only go up or go down. ( Well it can stay the same and is not a playing day ) The metaphor is that it is like attempting to predict on which side of his jerkin the village idiot will dribble on tomorrow. Will it be the left side, or will it be the right side. Millions, no, billions of dollars are bet on which side the village idio will dribble on. Some will be right, and hailed as heros, some will be forgotten. But as each sweep of the pendulum passeth ( thanx again cherokee ) those that are "right" become fewer, until, the great laws of averages of large numbers

say,,,,,enough....the pendulum swings the other way......

As to 325,, why, for most of 1997 gold was above US$340, noone believed the hepratcatJohn@TAKETHOSEPILLSMAN__theyreally___help when he predicted gold at 325. noone. Now, it is treated as an "of course." :Like, "Of course the world is round." of course there is gravity"...

Sorry, new friend, I forget that the languish of kitco is not so univeral..

guu5thhic00 ufdgckd839 oisapb 9f8 d98w0 00ewq'lzx\q0eqXXeuO0982=-/8wsa##

DOS, I can not handle it!

By the way did you hear about the YR2K problem with the FAA to day the Prez has apointed a YR2K Czar today - about time.

They finally realize that they have a BIG problem.

HighRise

Nick@C so how do the roos do in the goldf course in the dry?

Australian Stock Exchange ASX for Thursday morning trade Legend Mining NL ( LEG ) 0.26 cents 3,356,514 shares traded for $782,723.

Johnson Well ( JWM ) $3.60 11,700 traded for $42,120

Hope this helps

"it is like attempting to predict on which side of his jerkin the village idiot will dribble on tomorrow"

Thanks, it is very clear now.

I do wish I had bought more of my mining stocks below 300 than I did.

This PM investing is tough for me, in the sense that if I cheer on Gold I may be asking for difficult / hard times. It would be nice - 800

HighRise

Asked about apparent U.S. plans to attack Iraq, he said: ``France has no intention to associate itself with that.''
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980205/iraq_franc_1.html

There are 3 Aircraft Carriers in the Gulf and one more on the way, without International backing or even backing from countries the US give billions to every year.

Another international embarrassing screw-up by BJ Clinton. How friggen dumb can he be to have made this move without proper support. How can he turn and run without weakening the USs image - we all know he is a jerk why does he have to embarrass the country.

He will probably go it alone. VERY DANGEROUS!

This could become a protracted situation with the US not having a place to land and refuel a plane in the area. In the area, heck, no where but on US soil.

IMHO, They got to get the price of oil back up. See earlier post re: Indonesia 50% drop in oil imports.

HighRise

Auracious--am just takin' the beasties out for a walk on the golf course. 8 p.m. and a bit of cool relief from the sweltering heat. Roos on the golf course?? Mate --they're as thick as fleas at a dingo convention. Only place they can find well-watered grass--so they all head on over about this time of day. Last night about a million ducks on the g.c. eating heaven-knows-what. Was like walking through a minefield after my daughter did a Kamikazi plunge into their midst. Anyone know if duck poo is worth $$? BBL.

Oh, and Bart--go gold!

Indonesia
Jakarta Composite
^JKSE
4:00AM
513.489
-6.440
-1.24%

South Korea
Seoul Composite
^KS11
1:41AM
528.05
-19.23
-3.51%

If there is trouble obtaining this

please try once more or E-mail request to jsmith@wire.net.au

www.wire.net.au/~jsmith/charts/silver/brokerpage1.doc

other pages are brokerpage2.doc and brokerpage3.doc

here hoping it works this time

JOE

Expect a re-incarnation of exploration around Prime Resource's Eskay Creek Property. Prime's AU/AG values are so high that direct shipping of ore to smelters has been the case.
Recently a less complicated ore, but of lower grade has been found and will be treated by mill; scheduled to go into production shortly.
It is said that gold ore with values below 0.40 ounces has been left in place since production began.

Nick@C
Duck gold is generally unapreciated, and for good cause. I can sit on balcony ( someone interested now,,,shhhh ) and frow bread to the ducks as on a houseboat in Kashmir..and as I close my eyes I see those women once more draped in 18kt gold, draped, laced and pierced, with 18kt gold.

Wazz those Silver experts talking about Indian dumping AG??.....Uhhhh Nooo Way......it takes a harsh drought, not necessarily famine, to bring out any silver, not price change, this is not tradeable assets but poor people's insurance.., buta anyway it moves internally.. Nick, most westerners think that India is one country, with one people and one government, from memory there are over 200 languages in India, more than 40 recognised religions, there are 800 million people...50%illiteracy, 80%women illiteracy, this is not a country, this is a confederation of states 3 * larger than the US.

Didja see those balloonists flew over the Taj Mahal at dawn today? Oh, have you ever seen The Taj Mahal in moonlight or at dawn?.....The golden moments of one's days...memories, like gold, cannot rust....

bb

2/5/98 -- 1:05 AM

GM, Ford sales both down in January; total industry declines


DETROIT ( AP ) - Automakers started 1998 with a 6.8 percent decline in domestic
sales, led by the Big Three automakers whose sales fell a combined 6 percent.

General Motors Corp. said Wednesday its domestic vehicle sales declined 6.2
percent last month. Car sales were down 18.2 percent but truck sales were up 10.1
percent.

Ford Motor Co.'s January sales dropped 10.6 percent compared to the year before.
Car sales were down 11.3 percent and truck sales declined 10.1 percent.
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1015.htm

"As GM goes so goes the Nation"

HighRise

Moral: Never play poker with a dwarf.

Date: Thu Feb 05 1998 04:02
HighRise ( IRAQ ) ID#401460:

...Another international embarrassing screw-up by BJ Clinton.
How friggen dumb can he be to have made this move without
proper support. How can he turn and run without weakening
the USs image - we all know he is a jerk why does he have
to embarrass the country. ..........

He will probably go it alone. VERY DANGEROUS! .....


HighRise

========================

HE IS *N*O*T* DOING IT !!!!!!!!
it is our soldiers..........

2B
whazzat? RU a dwarfist?

for Oris
Maybe Yeltsin talks bullsh!t but I saw him
stop a tank with a pistol on tv back during the coup days.
Was that staged for cnn ??
In similar circumstances here, De Klerk hid from right
wingers in a police van at Ventersdorp , and I cannot
picture BC exposing himself ( ahem ) to danger.

I think the guy has a little, I dunno, style. And I
like the way he loses his temper.

180 days seems like a long time to me too. Wouldnt
the war be over by them ??

Crusty/ All

so why did Toe Knee Blair jump into Clinton's Lap so quickly? This is the old Allies, as I have, ahhhem, well anyway, resuscitated, once more Europe, united as to what part, sniffs the bitch of loot....Blair@Clintonsfeet?


full half a year you reckon OLD SOLDIER to get ready for war? that is a tad discombobulating....

Lease Lend is the way to go guys, just like last time.....just make sure you build those boats so bad they don't last two Atlantic crossings...just like last time...

RUM TUM TUM TUM RUM TUM TUM TUM RUM TUM TUM TUM RUM TUM TUM TUM

"HE IS *N*O*T* DOING IT !!!!!!!!
it is our soldiers.........."
"Trilateral Commission"

I don't follow what you are trying to say?
I appear to be slow on the uptake tonight.

Do you mean that he is just doing what the Bankers and Oilers are telling him to do?

HighRise

I am humbled re hedge htm. I have fond memories of the North
Island. Do you think all this fan hitting is getting gold
anywhere or is the fan hitting shooter, pissing in the wind?

I just cant believe the clap trap coming out of politicians
and economists mouths at the moment. I kind of feel like we
at Kitkare chat are sitting on something sooooo big.
Selamat malam friend.

For Savage
Rangy now is different from rangy then - it has spun
off harmony and drooy to go it alone - It has some
of their stock but now has a lot of mining rights and
mines all over the place mainly Mali and some in Tanzania.
Its NAV is about twice its market price. Rangold
resources trades it London - I have some. I like it a lot.
Top managemnt.
for 2bro2b
Ok to play poker with them as long as they dont deal.
for Polarbear
Its very unfortunate for Durban deep to use the symbol
DROOY - because one upon a time in Dwarfland, the dwarves
had a KING named DROOY THE IMPALER and he was always
getting the little devils into deep doodoo and well
as skewering them like so many shashliks in his spare time.
Because of these bad habits, he became very unpopular,
and the intense hatred of that name has lasted until
this day. If you dare approach the borders of dwarfland
late in the evening you can hear the chant - NYAHN NYAHN
DRO-OY NYAHN NYAHN DRO-OY - but I wouldnt go alone.
Its my story and Im sticking with it.

For Aurator
yes the golden Taj Mahal and lovely Mumtaz Mahal - she
was a great brood mare

+4.50

Interest Rate Watch in Europe

HighRise

WORLD BANK, IMF TO BE INVOLVED
IN PNG BUDGET
Thursday 5 February, 1998 ( 5:19pm AEDT )




The framing of Papua New Guinea's 1998 budget, to be
tabled in parliament next month, will involve the World Bank
and the International Monetary Fund.

Prime Minister Bill Skate announced this at the National
Economic Summit in Port Moresby, which is discussing the
budget and development strategies.

Mr Skate said the World Bank and the IMF would advise on
expenditure and assist in setting PNG's deficit.

He also warned of a difficult year ahead, as the budget
would be tied to higher debt-servicing and paying for the
public service.

The world is now teetering.

To all
well the support at 46-47 was smashed. I would guess that
at least 33 is in the cards - ( just taking the first led down
which was 13 and subtracting ) - or maybe 26 ( the second leg
of 20 and samesame ) - so no move in gold and silver to $9 or
maybe $11.5 - This is reminding me of late 70s.
Will it play that way.

RECORD NUMBER OF SOUTH KOREAN
FIRMS INSOLVENT IN JANUARY
Thursday 5 February, 1998 ( 4:15pm AEDT )




South Korea's central Bank has announced that a record
12-hundred-and-39 business firms collapsed in January in
Seoul alone.

The Bank says the collapses can be blamed on high interest
rates and a liquidity shortage.

The new wave of bankruptcies follows about 12-hundred
firms going under in December and the 568 companies
declared insolvent in November.

The spiral of corporate failures was triggered late last year
when an accute financial crisis forced South Korea to turn to
the International Monetary Fund for a bailout of 57 billion
dollars.

Under the terms of the rescue package, South Korea agreed
to maintain high interest rates.

EBN spot silver 7.53 ( +4.29% )
spot gold 298.75

Building up into ripples, then waves !

http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.html

Where is my surfboard. ANOTHER . .AUST-SK-SOROS I WIN!!!!

YASSAR ARAFAT REPORTEDLY NAMES A
SUCCESSOR
Thursday 5 February, 1998 ( 9:38pm AEDT )





Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat has reportedly told U-S
President Bill Clinton his successor will be the current
deputy-head of the P-L-O, Mahmud Abbas.

The London-based Foreign Report magazine says Mr Arafat
named his successor during a meeting with Mr Clinton at the
White House on January 22.

Sixty-nine year old Mr Arafat has headed the PLO for
decades and took over the Palestinian Authority when it was
created in 1994 under the Oslo peace accords.

The issue of his succession has surfaced in recent months
due to signs the veteran leader could be having health
problems.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980204/japan_jan__1.html

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/980204/business/stories/dollar_7.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980204/markets_si_12.html

Theory says that markets represent fundamentals and/or expectations, correcting deviations sooner or later. I regard the current situation in PMs and the share markets as being off fundamentals as well as off expectations. I like Aurators village-idiot-metaphor very much an interpretate it that way - though the idiots "trend" is easier to follow by statistical means.
Right now I see exuberant irrationality rather than irrational exuberance determining the markets and I am far beyond wondering, how long this can last. In fact, it is allready lasting much longer, as I could imagine one year ago it could. Im also suffering from some kind of investitio praecox, as I bought some golden papers, expecting them having found a bottom when creeping around their nominal-"value". Went down another 50% a while ago.
But still: Im convinced that ratio will return into the game, I hope not via a major incident from outside the markets. Anyway: Enjoy gold, as long as its a cheap amusement and be careful.

Hello, tasting, 1, 2, 3, exuberant irrationality rather than irrational exuberance ...............

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980204/canada_sel_1.html

April Gold up .60 @ 301.80

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980203/japan_insu_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980205/japan_mone_1.html

Fred -
Your Buddy came by to say hello - He asked me to send his
best wishes

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980205/thai_banks_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980204/u_s_democr_1.html

Before everyone becomes a bit too enamoured of Mr. Buffett's silver play, perhaps we have to ask ourselves why he suddendly has made it public that he ownes this much silver. It is possible perhaps that he is telling everyone of his "adventure" in silver so that the public will buy, allowing him to liquidate his holdings without doing much damage to teh price in the interim. This is a huge position; to sell it would drive prices down sharply... unless he could entice others to buy. Recall what jesse Livermore said concerning the media when he had to liquidate a large cotton position he was carrying. He leaked the news to the press, created buying and sold it to 'em.... gladly.

Just a thought... before everyone gets carried away with enthusiasm. Best regards

With every bit of news my head sins faster. Need to see
someone to cure this giddy feeling! Do think this is the
calm before the storm?

Donal, I lurk on this line most of the time, and I want to thank you for the always interesting posts. I may not always agree with your ideas concerning gold, silver et al, but I do very much appreciate the work you do in keeping everyone posted. Many, many thanks.

Please discuss that the same reason that W buffet bought Silver apply to Gold also.

Comments -Please

Thanks. This is not the calm before the storm. This is THE STORM. Twenty percent of the world is under water already.

BUFFET ANNOUNCED HE WAS BUYING COKE AWHILE BACK? SINCE IT HAS TRIPLED IN PRICE. He is required to reveal large positions when they become , I believe , a certain percentage of his fund. Probably the bogus lawsuit forced him out since what he has done is completely legal. I love on CNBC how thay talk of "all the silver out there". How about all THE SHORTS OUT THERE WHO WONT BE ABLE TO DELIVER OR LAYOFF THEIR POSITIONS!

Oh Shit.

His name is spelled----------BUFFETT

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980203/singapore__2.html

Major Scandal during their presidency....
Nixon: Watergate
Clinton: Waterbed

The President's biggest fear....
Nixon: The Cold War
Clinton: The Cold Sore

Complaints toward the President.....
Nixon: Carpet-Bombing
Clinton: Carpet-Burns

Their Vice-Presidents...
Nixon: His was Greek
Clinton: His is a Geek.

Presidential qualities.....
Nixon: Couldn't stop Kissinger.
Clinton: Couldn't stop kissing her.

Things the President couldn't explain....
Nixon: The missing 18-minutes on the tapes
Clinton: The 36D bra in his briefcase

Presidential Nicknames....
Nixon: Tricky Dick
Clinton: Slick Willy

and finally, Presidential excuses....
Nixon: I am not a crook
Clinton: I didn't get in her nook

His name is spelled BUFFETT

The Hunt bros. made the mistake of buying in the US. They were forced to liquidate by the members of the exchange who were short silver bigtime. Buffet knew better than to buy a large position in the US, he won't get screwed.

We need Hillary to announce she went long gold on her latest trip abroad Happy Trails

Look at the Japan news. Insolvent banks and insurers. Shipments down 25.6%. Asians not buying oil, no money to buy, no products to make. U.S. car manufacturers sales off 10%, Germany & France unemployment protests with rates at 12%. Scandal in the U.S. with a weakened president. Sure looks like a storm to me.

Make my Day

During these last minutes of Silver trading in London, it's 10 buyers for 2 sellers.

Spot price approaching $8 and March Silver now around $7.40

Gold also jumped $5 within minutes.... could trigger some short covering in the New York session.

DO WE STRIKE OR DO WE HIDE.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980205/silver_fix_1.html

Date: Thu Feb 05 1998 07:50
Realistic ( Silver euphoria ) ID#410194:

Looks like we may be breaking out on all pm fronts. Palladium , silver, platinum and maybe, just maybe gold. This Buffett endorsement has been a very BIG positive for the PM's.

Donald thanks for your consistent great news posts.

This is going to be a very nice day for the goldbugs.

However if China falls where will that put us. Looks like its
a 50/50. And the Yuan? Aussies we used to big storm. Me only
sniff front of strong Nor Wester. Then mega storm.

Dollar still under pressure:

http://www.cnbceurope.com/markets/currency/

Look at gold go!!! My money has just shfted into Durban Roodepoort Deep.

CNBC just flashed ( Thurs. 6:15 Mountain ) that April gold was up over 5.70 oz. to 307.30 -- Is this correct ??

is holding it down, But for How Long ?

Gold/Silver Ratio is at 38.94 in London right now

If someone ( Warren Buffet, for example ) knew that by coming out publicly about buying a thinly traded commodity, he could cause it to go through the roof due to people buying because they are simply joiniing the crowd, he would definitiely do it.

Then also I would imagine he would say to himself, "Man if I come out and say I'm selling, this market could really tank. Hmmmm!".

I wonder if WB has bought a sh-t load of cheap out-of-the-money silver Puts and is just waiting for the time to come out again and announce his intention to sell. I wish I had the ability to control the crowd like that!

By the way, Lind-Waldock quote line, which is pretty close to real time has the April gold as follows at this time:

High - 3100 Low - 2997 Current - 3070 + 5.80

About 10 minutes ago it was trading at 306.50 opening shold be a blast def. more buyers than sellers ( I hope )

Rational thought always gains the upper hand. Adieu friend ( $ )

John_Disney: Always appreciate your contributions on this site. Greetings to my buddy and z. .
Hedgehog: Thank you, very kind, but untrue...
GO GOLD, while Im leaving the office for tobogganing.

We are off to a good start anyways! April Gold now at 305.30 A few profit takers already. Its anybodys guess where we go from here!

tgl ( Buffett and Silver; Jesse Livermore and Cotton )

Firstly, the level of integrity between the modus operandi of a Buffett and a Livermore are world's apart. Secondly, Buffett buys for the very long-term. He has been quoted as saying across the years that his ideal investment holding time is "FOREVER." On the other hand Livermore was a notorious "SCALPER," seeking just a few points of gain in as many days in his speculations. Buffett is nearly always IN LONG POSITIONS, whereas Livermore was infamous for his SHORT POSITIONS. And finally, Buffett is by definition a CONSERVATIVE INVESTOR, but Livermore was a wild SPECULATOR, which eventually caught up with him.

Due to wild gambling in the stock market Livermore finally did himself in. At the Sherry-Netherlands Hotel on 5th Avenue at 59th Street, New York City, Jesse Livermore downed a couple of Manhattan cocktails in an almost deserted cocktail lounge. Then at exactly at 4:15PM he calmly went to the restroom and blew out his brains with one shot. It was November 28, 1940.

Not related to the above, except for the fact it deals with SILVER, the nationally-acclaimed investment newsletter analyst, Gene Inger JUST posted his latest report at golden-eagle ( that's SANS "en" {:- ) ) , which contains an interesting view on Warren Buffett's SILVER INVESTMENTS.

Date: Thu Feb 05 1998 08:08
Goldilocks and the three BEARS ( Is GOLD flying this Morning ? ) ID#430219:

Sounds correct. Quote.com just moved to 308.2 for april contract ( which I think is what CNBC looks at ) .

07:51:39 308.2 +7.0

Gold now at 425!! Sorry just kindin! Bad Joke. Or is it! Someday soon???

GO TEAM GOLD !!!!!!!!!!!

We have to be careful about attributing all the PM price improvements to Mr. Buffett. He is merely the trigger. The value for gold and silver has been there along. Problems in Japan are serious. Japanese interest rates are rising from money printing. Those rate rises will put pressure on Japan to sell U.S. bonds and buy their own at some point. This puts downward pressure on the dollar which is bullish for gold. In short, PM's are nearing the end of a 18 year bear market with or without Mr. Buffett.

Futures Contracts
Updated as of: Feb 05, 1998 @ 8:22 am ET

Sym. Company Name Last Change %Chg High Low Vol.

GC J8 Apr. Gold 3098 +86 +2.9 3098 2997 50.8K
SI H8 March Silver 7430 +410 +5.8 7470 6960 32.9K
HG H8 March High Grade Copper 7800 +65 +0.8 7800 7735 12.6K
PL J8 April Platinum 3965 +103 +2.7 3970 3875 0
PA H8 March Palladium 131071 +8191 +6.7 122880 122880 0

Goodmorning .....

I would really appreciate it if any of you could help me find sources for the following information:

1 ) The annual world supply of silver.

2 ) The current annual world demand for silver

3 ) The daily ending stocks of silver in the London Metals Exchange.

Can anyone tell me:

Why are the Commercials so "Short" in silver ...as of the last three Commitment of Trader's reports they appear to be increasing their short positions and holding steady on their longs.....

Any help would be greatly appreciated......

Thanks.

Kuston: ( I wrote this last night but couldn't post it )

Glad that you and your compadres have scored in the silver game. Unfortunately I don't see any markets that have fundamentals as good as silver's. The corn market bears watching because once again world stockpiles are extremely low. In addition some ethanol producers have restarted. If there is to be a big score on corn it will probably come from a combination of the weather and the dollar.

This is a gold forum so I must make a confession. Today we went out and bought a big load of Dec 99 380 calls. I don't have a great deal to add to the gold market analysis except to say that the way out of the money calls with lots of time are cheap. The implied vol on the stuff we bought was under 12. We bought an American style OTC option exercizeable against the physical. The joker in the deck for this one might be the Year 2000 thing. I don't know what the outcome of Y2K thing is going to be, but by late 1999 the consciousness of the public is going to be raised to a fearsome height. How many are going to opt for a little security I don't know, but as they say in the lotto commercials all it takes is a dollar and a dream.

Today's action in gold was very comforting. If you look back at the way the silver market turned it was very similar. We had about a ten percent rally off the lows then a gut wrenching day when the market gave up half its gains. The next day was up and within a week or so all the damage had been repaired. Yesterday's plunge probably blew out a lot of longs and sucked in some new shorts. If we take out the previous high, some sort of a significant rally may be in the offing. Who knows, maybe Friday's unemployment numbers will contain a little whiff of inflation in the hourly earnings numbers. Then all the sages of CNBC can nod their heads in agreement, snorfle a little bit, and pay homage to the sage from Omaha.

In the midst of the silver madness we have lost sight of some important happenings in SE Asia. The currencies there seem to be doing much better. The Malaysian Ringitt which hit a low of around 4.82 to the dollar is now trading at 3.91. The Sing dollar is also much stronger as is the Baht. Even the dreaded Rupiah is back into 4 digits. Stability in SE Asia is going to be good for the metals as the spectre of a deflationary collapse recedes from whence it came. Actual gold demand from these places may begin to rise once again. Like India after its devaluation, SE Asia citizens will have a newfound appreciation for the staying power of gold. It is a lesson which will not be forgotten for at least 2 generations.

For Polarbear
I have a feeling that you're gonna make a lot of money -
Good luck and dont forget the chant.

Donald: CONGRATUALTIONS -

Your last post put it all in a nutshell - I totally concur with this view. THE Long Awaited Gold BULL Market has begun!

Regarding many posters interest in the Gold Mutual Funds, if the yellow metal closes with at least early morning gains, one of the most prestigious and largest Gold Funds, Fidelity Select American Gold ( sorry, don't know their toll-free number ) , will probably rise a buck today -- that would represent a large percent gain - and BTW was one of Kitco's best known poster's, George S. Cole, favorite Gold Mutual Fund.

``There are absolutely no technicals to help us out here and above $7.00, the fundamentals just don't come into it,'' said the first dealer.

"God knows where it's going," said another.

``It could go to $8.00, it could go back to $7.00. It really could go anywhere,'' he said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980205/markets_si_1.html

You're right in that this run-up started before WB. But since his announcement or rumors of his announcement, silver has gone from 6.40 to 7.50 ish. I realize that he can't completely control the market, but being such a thin market, he can exacerbate moves.

If this leg is ending shortly, as some of our technicians have indicated, a correction is coming soon. FWIW, there are divergences forming in many indicators ( MACD hsitogram, stochastics etc.. ) that show the price reaching new highs, but the momentum indicators are not going anywhere near new highs. Doesn't mean the move is ending, but a pullback could be coming. My point is that in the thin silver market, he could certainly make the coming correction more viloent since there are quite a few sheep that have gotten in in this move, as well as astute traders. They'll be selling like crazy if he says anything negative.

Might as well get to work on seating for the Fete' Ten....a massive drunken brawl....get big liability in-shorance. Salud! Go Goldbugs!....the gold ball is getting much lighter for this old scarab! Giza is just not that steep anymore.

Bury Andy Smith.

JTF 00:32 Bad as U.S. readiness is, it far exceeds that of West Europeans, N. Korea, Iraq, Iran, and Russia. Problem remains, that N. Korea, Russia, Iraq and Iran are far more willing to use their forces despite heavy losses. Israelis will act in their best interest and care little about how it affects us.

Earl 00:43 Hackworth mentioned Moore. Im not sure if he is the same one as wrote of Ia Drang Valley. For an absolutely monumental book on the disaster of not being prepared, read This Kind of War by T.N. Faherenbach. It is about Korea.

Oris 00:55 Your time table for the Russian units was accurate when they were at a high state of readiness but that is long past. Many Russian mechanized units cannot move at all because of maintenance problems.

Basically the whole world has gone on a peace dividend binge that built on and inflamed the paper binge. The savings have been squandered like the sick gambler to pile the pot higher. The financial problems and military are all interwoven. They thought they were so clever and had repealed natural laws but the politicians have painted themselves into a corner. The game is about up. Its resolution will not be pretty.

To all DD sportsfans
D-deeps company secretary has posted off some stuff
on deeps resource picture. I should have thought of
this before. Will advise whien I get it.
Also getting details on the 2 sets of options. Silly
me - I have some and dont even know the details. bought
more today ... talk about cheap ) === $0.25 each -
ok - have details on b option strike 60Rand ( 12$ ) expiry
june 2002. ordinary options strike 30 Rand ( 6$ ) year
end 1999.
Just picked up a little deeps deeps too.
Fun if it went ballistic ... Not my favorite stock
but that chant ... it's so catchy

Don't know anything about W.B..but I think it is misguided to think He is going to do anything with that silver to manipulate a down move,not all investers are without integrity,I assume He bought silver because of its extreme value and until it loses its value I don't think He,s selling,Heck He's still got to get 45000 contracts delivered,this buying isn't all specs it is a lot of guys that have to have it to deliver,anyway thats my foggy take on it .

Perhaps another way to put your apt statement would be that PMs are at the end of their 18 year bear market and that is why Mr. Buffet is going in.

Munni Munni - Elizabeth Hill silver, gold, plalladium and rhodium deposit.

drilling results to be issued tomorrow or Monday - "looks VERY good".

da-------

way out of the money gold calls?

well............i never! the silver train has a traveling
companion..........mr gold...........

ALLABOARD----------------

wooooooooo woooooooooooo woooooooooooo

What are your thoughts on the main competition, China.

is probably well on his way to acquiring control of a couple silver mining companies so that he will have an invisible way to dispose of his metal position at some future date. He will not deliver this metal to a futures market and it will be years before he sells any.

You're absolutely right on this being a misguided move. It is pure speculation on my part. Like most of the things that go on, we'll have to see what happens in the coming weeks and see if anything that anyone has said in the last few days makes any sense at all.

As I said before to others, I enjoy these discussions for or against and I like it when this forum becomes what Bart wanted it to be -- a PM discussion forum. Thanks for your input!

this may be of interest to you.

http://www.roskill.co.uk/silver.html

What if his announcement was precipitated by the unfair accusations by shorts of market manipulations by an innocent third party. I could imagine him thinking, 'it looks like the cockroaches are taking over the kitchen. time to spray'...nyaah he's too polite for that.

http://members.aol.com/pegpress/fema.htm

My knowledge on this subject is at least 7 years old,
and I heard of some problems in modern Russian army,
so you are right. Still think they got a couple
of "elite" paratrooper divisions that can make it
even today in the same manner as 10 years ago.
Others are far, far behind, you are correct.

Can anyone comment on the Gold/Silver Ratio and its chances of going back to the 16:1 area? Would someone like Buffett move into gold based upon ratios? Having had ratios of 100:1 in past years this is quite a move.

Looks like london spot silver is @ $7.50/ounce with lease rates already at 50%! Looks like its going to fly. Hope gold does the same. I sold my silver positions monday when spot was at $6.65, but boy I regret I did!

Looks like london spot silver is @ $7.50/ounce with lease rates already at 50%! Looks like its going to fly. Hope gold does the same. I sold my silver positions monday when spot was at $6.65, but boy I regret I did!

The PM's are about to catch on fire any hour now. We could have an explosion as soon as tomarrow. Back up the semi-trucks. Golds day has arrived.

I recall some oldtimers in the market telling me that silver tended to lead gold when bull markets started and that the Gold/Silver ratio tended to drop significantly. In the past 10 years or so, it got near 100 to 1 which made me think the ratio was much too high and silver had to move up. It didn't mean much since silver didn't move much and was pretty much a waste of time. With the break in the ratio down below 70 ( or so ) , silver has been much more interesting and now appears to be on its way in this stage of its bull market. Hence, the ratio is dropping, perhaps to an old number of 20 to 1. That leaves gold to follow. Sooner or later, something worthwhile should happen to gold.

To all
Some notes from Business day

1. SA gold mining industry in "GOOD SHAPE"
says fleming martins analyst G Kisbey-Green
( all gold analysts have odd names like freddy sassifras )
2. Avgold looks at finance options and seems uninterested
in a joint venture with Placer Dome on their
target property ( 15 mill oz - less than 200$/oz ) .
3. Randfontein will rein in costs on their
Doornkop project now estimated at 260-270 $/oz.

Others sometimes report items from local press -
however they seem to report only the unfavorable
items - that's sweet isnt it.

http://www.roskill.co.uk/index974.html

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/980205/international/stories/yeltsin_1.html

Today China joined in with Russia saying "no" to war.

And yet in the face of this news gold still bulls.

Buy. Warren just bought a helluva' silver mine to stick in his mining co. and it doesn't have any enviromental or labor problems. Smell the smoke...ya'll?

The other Gulf engagements were started on the full moon for the warriors' light advantage. If assets are in place, one more month ( mid March ) may not be an acceptable wait. Especially if no land base use is forthcoming. This full moon may be the one. Just speculation.

Thanks very much!

Thanks for that. If silver made a move while gold remained somewhat inactive and reached the 20:1 area it would seem like a good strategy would be to use silver profits and buy the laggard gold expecting the 20:1 to hold with silver dropping and gold catching up. Does that sound reasonable?

http://www.cnbceurope.com/markets/Commodities/

I doubt that Warren Buffet made his decision solely or mainly based upon the ratios. It probably entered into his calculations. I'm more inclined to believe that he discussed the situation with other well versed investors, like Soros, Rothchilds, etc who have more knowledge in the area than he does and that he ultimately made his mind up based upon the compelling supply-demand statistics that have built up over the past 8 years.

Doesn't Tony Blair with his rosy cheeks remind one of the typical wooden ventriloquist's dummy? You can almost see the strings coming down from the House of Windsor.

Date: Thu Feb 05 1998 09:19
sharefin ( More gossip? ) ID#284251:

I would believe anything of the Clintons. Heaven help us, I hope we get rid of them sooner than later, but get rid of them we must. Actually, its Hillary that scares me the most.

Let us hope they are driven from office along with their corrupt helpers.

Of course, all of this would push the pm's higher.

Most people will probably disregard this message but...

The Silver buying frenzy that took place in the last minutes of trading in the London market this morning reached epic proportions.

The euphoria reached panick buying where emotions were flying high as a result of the extreme mediatization of the Silver situation over the last few days.

Short term traders should now be even more careful and those who have not boarded this train several months ago should try to analyze the situation very objectively.

Listen around, Silver has all of a sudden became a "sure thing".

By looking back to history, the "sure thing" trades mostly always turn against the ones who got aboard late!

Hi John,

Yeltsin of 1991 and of today are two very
big differences. As any Russian leader before
him, he got spoiled by the power - as I say:
"Too much caviar". His political support is
shrinking and from time to time he just needs
to say something. As a rule, what he says, is
the first thing that comes to his mind - he is
known to be a very sicere man. His mind is not
the best in the world, so what he says should
always be considered bull sh*t unless proven
otherwise. When I listen to his Russian speech -
believe me, it's awful, he usually cannot build
one complete sentence...when he talks on his own..

Usually, after he says something, his aids carefully
explain what he really says, and in some time it looks
like what he says is not what he says...

He did not stop tanks with a pistol in his hand.
But in 1991 he stood on top of the tank and delivered
a speech. In 1991 everybody was impressed...

This is my first post to your community, and though Ive lurked on and off for many months, Ive felt that most of what I could say was largely covered. Not so now, I think.

The silver rally that has occurred for the last 6 months may be exciting, but it is important to remember that supply deficits have drawn down existing stockpiles for many years. Silver is not often mined by itself, but rather more often as a by-product of copper or gold mines. The Asian crisis, the under-performance of gold and copper, and the Bre-X scandal, which crippled mine finance, will all combine to limit the free market response to bringing greenfield supplies to market.

There are, obviously, aboveground stocks, but there is a far greater supply of momentum players in the financial markets. This price move will draw momentum money ( a vast pool of capital ) into a comparatively small silver market. The process that has created the absurd prices in the stock market has now only begun in silver.

When this process is complete, it is entirely likely that few analysts will understand why the price of silver is so high. The people at CNBC will, however, understand. The commentators will get on the bandwagon only after they get accustomed to seeing a high price.

This price action would have eventually unfolded due strictly to supply-demand considerations, but the Berkshire Hathaway investment places an imprimatur of respectability on a commodity investment by the most respected equity player. This is NOT just a trading rally, it is a bull market. The greatest mistake that can be made in a bull market is to try to get cute with trading strategies. Dont lose your long position, and enjoy the long overdue ride.

Gold will go up because of this because of gold/silver ratio trades ( gold will look cheap ) , but the market dynamics arent nearly as favorable.

If anyone is looking for an equity play in silver, I would suggest that the purest participation available is Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold silver indexed preferred D, a NYSE listed ( FCXprD ) stock that is exchangeable for the cash value of 4 troy ounces of London Silver. Dividend yield is 4 1/8% of the value of the silver, per annum, payable quarterly. The preferred is generally non-callable, and amortizes over an 8 year period, paying the cash equivalent of  oz. of silver beginning Aug., 1999, and thereafter annually until the preferred is totally redeemed on Aug, 2006. The shares were issued to help finance FCXs Grasberg mine, and the silver from the mine secures the preferred. Full details are in the companys 10-k, available at the SEC server, or the prospectus, at - http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/0000950103-94-003280.txt

The positives are that the ultimate value of the stock equates to London silver, with the guarantor being arguably the best mine in the world. The negative is that the mine is in Irian Jaya, a remote island in Indonesia. There is a negligible risk of expropriation, since RTZ, Duke Power and some Indonesians own pieces of the project. Indonesia has a long history of oil exploration with foreign companies, but the mine is nonetheless there.

The stock closed at 20  on 2/4/98,or at a discount of 7  points Vs. $7. Silver. Two years ago it traded at a 2 point Premium, so I suspect the risk is reflected in the price. I own it, obviously, and I am not a seller.

Stock market is going to get spanked tomarrow and the PM's will explode. Cherokee what will you do with all that money?

Hi Haggis, I got into Stillwater Co. ( SWC ) yesterday, and I would like some info on Palladium and Platinum world production and consumption. Not only for my benefit, bad others may want it. If any info is easily available, I will appreciate it, so will others. Do not go out of your way for it. Just in case you have some. Thank you and sorry to trouble you.

Clito should just put his "dick" back in his trousers, and play pocket snooker ?!

It will be interesting to see how desperate he actually is ?

sharefin ( Yeltsin Hopeful, Others Cautious Over Iraq ) ID#284251:
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/980205/international/stories/yeltsin_1.ht
ml
Today China joined in with Russia saying "no" to war.

want to trade futures?

here is a real good one to start with........

may oats.......one hell of a tight channel.......

gotta break one way or the other.....and soon.

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/fstwin33.gif

time to call the hep-rat-kitty-kat to task.......
what of the 275 call? or whatever the # was?
kind-of looking dismal as to those prospects..eh?
here kitty...kitty...kitty.............

Sounds reasonable, but my recollection of 1980 was that the markets were pretty wild--Gold at 850 & Silver at 50 for a 13 to 1 ratio. In markets like those, I doubt that planning to buy and then switch is going to be that easy to carry out. For the moment, silver is the PM of choice and has been for quite a while. If, and when, it overshoots the equilibrium point, a switch in emphasis would be in order. Nevertheless, in a bull market it will be like getting on and off freight trains moving at great speeds.

Where can one find a quote on Dec 99 calls. Furthest quotes that I can find are for April 99.

A.Goose
Thought that this was a good description.
Avid chatter:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
This is not harmless. Our president is supposed to be a moral beacon, yet he's morally bankrupt. He never outgrew his '60s mores. And now he's foisting them on us. Here are some of the lessons he's teaching our children, the very group he professes to care so much about:

1 ) It's OK for you to cheat on your spouse.
Moral: The covenant of marriage doesn't matter, only convenience.

2 ) It's OK to lie about what you did, deny you lied about it, then lie about denying you lied.
Moral: The truth is disposable.

3 ) It's OK to smoke pot o long as you don't inhale.
Moral: Just say ''yes'' to drugs.

4 ) It's OK to wiggle out of serving your country when it needs you most - in war.
Moral: Save your own skin.

5 ) It's OK to cut sweetheart deals if you become a politician.
Moral: Public office is for lining your pockets.

6 ) It's OK to dodge blame and never admit you're wrong.
Moral: When busted, finger others.

7 ) It's OK never to say you're sorry.
Moral: Only losers humble themselves.

8 ) It's OK to cheat to win an election.
Moral: Win at any cost.

9 ) It's OK to womanize ( and maybe even to sexually harass female workers ) .
Moral: Women are objects.

10 ) It's OK to obstruct justice.
Moral: The U.S. Constitution is a joke.

11 ) It's OK to thumb your nose at federal subpoenas.
Moral: Important people are above the law.

12 ) It's OK to pretend you don't remember things.
Moral: Make 'em prove it.

13 ) It's OK to say anything and do anything to get out of a jam.
Moral: The end justifies the means.

14 ) It's OK to bully reporters.
Moral: When in doubt, threaten.

15 ) It's OK to let your loyal friends and business partners twist in the wind.
Moral: Use people.

16 ) It's OK to pal around with Communists, even Chinese arms dealers.
Moral: There's no difference between democracy and totalitarianism.

So there you have it, the twisted morals of our X-rated president. It would be funny if it weren't so tragic.

Yours is probably the best post I've read here in months. Thank you.

Expect lots of bad mouthing and press against Berkshire Hathaway. It will be named the "evil hoarder" of the second Barbaric metal.

Expect also to have a 3rd, and a 4th and a 5th ... barbaric metal as all metals move.

... "and the Bre-X scandal, which crippled mine finance, will all combine to limit the free market response to bringing greenfield supplies to
market".

Read all about it ........

http://www.northernminer.com/bre-x/bre-x.htm

Great post. That's basically what I was trying to say when I said that much of this run up has been from unknowing sheep just following the leaders. One negative comment in this thin market and poof! - down just as fast as it went up.

NJ 09:15 Some facts we need to keep in mind about China.
1. China has a vast antiquated Army. It cannot be deployed outside the area it can walk to. It is a huge and horrible thing to face on its own turf but insignificant beyond that. It cannot even cross the Straight of Formosa.
2. Chinas Navy is insignificant in the blue water realm and would rapidly be sent to the bottom by U.S. Navy.
3. Chinas Air Force is also antiquated, poorly trained and very vulnerable.
4. China has a vast ability to manufacture crude but effective weapons from rifles to missiles. That is the major way they influence things military outside their immediate sphere of influence.
5. Historically, China has not been big on expansionism and I do not see it becoming so now. It is a major accomplishment and requires major effort just to keep China together. In any case, remember that China values areas in far eastern Russia far more than anything that is of direct concern to the western world.

I suspect that Another may have some comments on the above?

Oris 09:19 Russian paratroops are probably most ready as are ours. I started my career as a paratrooper but sadly I must tell you that their usefulness in modern war is small. In the Gulf War I, we rushed the 82d Airborne Division to Saudi to put Americans in harms way as a warning and trigger. Saddam could have rolled over them before the heavy forces arrived. In the actual ground war, they played only a minor supporting role.

I must go to work. Later

Beware of buying any real estate in Canada cause when ya sell it Revenue Canada retains 33% of the total sale price till you can prove you don't owe ( har har ) the gov'ment any money for working illegally or somethin else in the country etc etc...We have to fill out a Rev-Can. non-resident tax form to BEGIN the process to TRY and get OUR money back and TYPICALLY for here they don't even have the GD tax form ( at least a regional branch of the IRS has tax forms! ) ...rev-can moron said-"oh,it shouldn't be too long till we get it here ( I know what that means in CB!!! ) ...They have TEN days to cough up the form or a law suit ( by MOIS ) will be filed!...It's one thing for a tax agency to try and steal your money ( as most of em try ta do ) but you should have the RIGHT to start the process to get back your measly 33% back...
...All I can say is this is just one more example of how Pathetic and incompetant things are here in the 'great white north'....

http://www.roskill.co.uk/pgm.html

A bit dated, not cheap but a tax deuction ........

Most of the other info that I have is full of geo-jargon, so much so that a lot of geo's would not understand it - puts you to sleep !

However, a more accessible read is "The Precious Metals Handbook;

http://www.metalbulletin.co.uk/mbbk_pmd.htm

The worst part about B.C. is popularity is soaring,my friends and realitives love him all the more,to the point of violent verbal praises of him and his greatness,sad sad,blinded eyes,I can't figure it out.

RLubman ( Comments on Silver ) : IF you have a chance I would very much like to exchange a few thoughts with you via email: vronsky@netrox.net

Yes Canada is bad news for taxes, Quebec even worse. The US also has similar provisions for Canadians selling real estate in the US though.....

PAA another silver stock hitting new highs on the TSE.
Does anyone have info/opinion on this Co. ?

for BC as he will be forced to hit Iraq

My 09:40 was for you. Where does one find a quote on those calls. My broker said no Dec 99, 380 calls traded today.

Date: Thu Feb 05 1998 09:42
sharefin ( With morals like these who needs an excuse for war? ) ID#284251:

I hate to say this but, everytime a lady reporter, government offical, feminist, ... is on a show defending Bill, they should be asked "Have you had ANY sexual relations with the president?"

This is to sicking, got to get back to the topic of pm's.

Looks like the gold shorts still have NO fear. Its had for me to understand how they can stand here forcing the contract price down with the positive action in Silver, Palladium and Now Platinium ( up 7.90 ) .

To anyone: Will XAU on current drop back find resistance at 76 and bounce back up and GCG8 similarly find resistance at 303.75 and bounce back up. I am talking about all of this happening within next few hours. Any ideas?

Thanks for the post. I've been sitting and wondering what to do with my FCX and other Freeport stuff. You have helped validate my original decision to hold through the calamitous ( appearing ) times.
Excellent Poat!!

Even Gold got caught in the emotional euphoria this morning and it's now $10 off of it's high reached early today.

Date: Thu Feb 05 1998 09:35
Realistic ( A word of caution ) ID#410194:
Most people will probably disregard this message but...

The Silver buying frenzy that took place in the last minutes of trading in the London market this morning reached epic proportions.

The euphoria reached panick buying where emotions were flying high as a result of the extreme mediatization of the Silver situation over the last few days.

Short term traders should now be even more careful and those who have not boarded this train several months ago should try to analyze the situation very objectively.

Listen around, Silver has all of a sudden became a "sure thing".

By looking back to history, the "sure thing" trades mostly always turn against the ones who got aboard late!

Thank you.

Gold stocks here stronger than what XAU indicates.

Its only my thoughts but it appears to me like there may be some from the gold market jumping to Silver to catch the bus. I think maybe it s too late . Friday will be profit taking day for some, and while it may not bother WB it may knock out a few stops and then the jumpers will wish they had stayed in Gold.

wouldn't allow attack on Iraq. They didn't sell Iraq any small
nukes that might go bang did they?

........is not fun, no "green" fairways or greens.........rocks and sand.

ZIVA......
"Another international embarrassing screw-up by BJ Clinton.
How friggen dumb can he be to have made this move without
proper support".

CLINTON WOULD NOT HAVE "a problem", IF HE DID NOT HAVE "A PROBLEM".
HE IS BEING STOOD UP AT THE ALTER...............

OR SHOULD I REPHRASE THAT - IS HE BEING SET UP ?!

NJ:

We deal with a major options broker on the Comex and thru a large Wall St. metal desk for our OTC stuff. I don't know where one would go on the retail side but would assume that the bigger brokers such as Lind Waldock would be able to get you a price. Just to give you a ballpark yesterdays quote for Dec 99 380 calls was 3.70 - 4.70. I don't know if they will work inside the spread for a small order, but its worth trying.

Have owned PAA for about three years. Solid company. I bought the stock as a "penny stock" and can't give you much help at this price. Who knows the future POS. Adrian Day has recommended the stock in the past.

Many thanks.

Markets bubble,Iraq,AU are on collision course? Thoughts on
AU, and market response to the collision?

I suspect that Boris Yeltsin knows that Saddam has some of those missing Nukes from the Soviet Union. He may be afraid of who the US will blame should they be used against a US city or TelAviv.
Somebody had better start using some common sense in this crisis or the world is headed for a s--- load of trouble.
A much more rational approach would be to tell Saddam if he uses any of his weapons he and his country will be reduced to a smoking pile of rubble.

.

sharefin: BC is very popular right now -- but the US media is abuzz about all the Whitehouse goings on. And -- this is the 'liberal' press. That steward who testified in front of the grand jury about MonicaGate is already headline news.

BC's popularity will plummet if Starr can prove that he lied to the American public, and make it stick. BC's affairs really don't stirr the people up, as long as he is doing his 'job'. But -- they will not tolerate being lied to. What worries me is that he may do something 'rash' in Iraq before getting adequate Arab support. Also our friendship with Russia is at a virtual end, if Boris Y. threatens to use nuclear weapons. I forget that 'crazy' Russian who said such things, and was ridiculed -- now it is BY himself. And -- that is because his control over Russia is getting shakier by the minute.

I think this bull market is going to continue until a major 'shock' of some kind brings it down. What is happening with gold and silver is reminiscent of 1993 when AG was unable to raise rates. And G Soros and Sir James Goldsmith jumped in. Now it is G Soros and Warren Beffett. We have to keep our eyes and ears open to see if they bought any gold or gold mining companies to go with the silver purchases, which began over 6 months ago. My guess rumors like this will spread once the gold 'bulls' have wrested control over the gold 'bears'.

Best of luck --- JTF.

USA wants War anyways. Tony Blair will ensure War too.. Watch out for Polls saying most Americans want War

april gold under 300,last I checked

standards should be applied to Commander-in-Chief

If a major US city suddenly disappears in a big cloud, do you automatically destroy Iraq? We will have no idea who really did it, unless we have an agenda to destroy someone and then we will convince ourselves they did it.

Hate to spoil the party, but gold appears to in process doing a major blow-off top. Would be happy to be proven wrong.

To All: Well, so much for the lines of early resistance. GCJ8 down to 301 with next support at 299.50-300.00. But XAU appears to have gone up slightly off 75.0. Will the XAU lead gold back up? Ideas?

is it normal for ex-lowly empolyee to visit White House, ex-Employer after leaving a job. BC is puppet on a string and They own the girl, they can make her appear and disappear depending on BC's subservience

Haggis, I also found this site:

http://www.envista.com/ebook/tables/T76.html

At least it is good to see interest in the prec. metals again. Thanks Warren! Unfortunately, it looks like another test or two of support is due before a solid rally can take hold... Good to see Plat above $400 again ( at least for a minute or two... )

Turkish Prime Minister says that US attack on Iraq is "unavoidable". Claims his information tells him that Hussein has 40,000 TONS of chemical weapons and not 40 tons. They have a replacement for the "scud" missle. Turkey is sending 55,000 troops to border to keep the Kurds out of Turkey.

It is getting near time to get more gold it will come back up hard soon

298.50

Quite a swing today.
I go to bed for a couple of hours and missed all of the excitement.

HighRise

.

Gold staging a "minimum wage" retreat ( going down $5.15 per hour ) .

Midas: You are being cynical -- but I agree with you. All BC cares about is his popularity -- he is a 'natural politician' first and foremost. He does not care what the rest of the world thinks as long as Harris et al say its ok.

We will not have that war with Iraq until the polls say so. But -- if the Monicagate stuff heats up -- he might speed things up a bit. What really worries me is a 'staged' terrorist attack on US soil to boost BC's popularity. I guess I am getting more paranoid as I get older. I hope that we have not stooped that far.

By the way, I don't think the Oklahoma City thing was staged, I think it was partially a consequence of an inept 'sting' operation. It is sad when we have so many poorly trained individuals in internal security roles -- we should just focus on beefing up the professionals such as the FBI where screwups are less likely.

I would not want to be in BC's shoes if he loses his popularity, as that is the only reason he is president. If he loses his popularity, he will lose his usefullness to the individuals who put him in power. The impeachment process may be the lesser of his worries.

.

.

I am not sure about that.

Gold took a pretty big hit during Desert Storm, will it do that during Monica Storm I don't know?

HOWEVER,
This time Clinton has no International backing on this move. His rear end is hanging out there again. He may be able to control the Americans but he his totally inept in manipulating Saddam and others. His BS doesn't get it done out there in a very complex world. This could mean Gold will go throught he roof when all Hell breaks loose in the Muslim world.

HighRise

Whitewater, Vince Foster, Lewinsky. Nixon was removed because of difference with Kissinger on Foreign Policy. Watergate was Blackmail. The Gold prices are down primarily because of low lease rates that are KEPT low

lives, BC wants his hide intact and gives a damn for US Troops

YES
That is the problem, Clinton governs by polls and polls do not work in international affairs, they only work in White House affairs.

The American people say bomb - do they really or is this another poll rigged for public opinion.

He should be polling the World on this matter and he is not because they do not vote for him or sit on the jury.

HighRise

"FED draining liquidity for the last couple of days because of snow storm and El Nino. Airplanes are grounded." CNBC

really

HighRise

I need a cup of coffee!

For 1997 ( tonnes of gold )

South Africa produced.........583.9
Other African countries.......115.0

Total AFRICA Continent........698.9

It is B/S that Iraq still has 400 Tons of Chemical weapons. The Real reason for War is Oil and Israel

More Monica-Zipper-BC-Starr-Rush-Limbaugh-crap. I can turn on that fat dude Rush and here the same endless crap that is being typed here. Although I do realize that war and gold are related, why must you guys choke this kitco GOLD and METALS group with who is getting in who's pants. YAAAAAAAAAWN! Take it off line and email each other till you get all your jollies out. Bart AND many others will be much less..............how do you say..........bored to tears. I think that you can find other chat groups that are MUCH more geared to handle infidelity in the white house. BFD!!!!!

away



that is not purely Gold, The Gold market has also been Ho Hum since years
now.

.

This is not a gossip group and stop insulting EB.

We follow PMs in this forum and we do not garbage talk. You continue it and Bart will kick you out. This has gone too far and we don't care about BC's sex life.

.

( I am reposting this as I would like more comments ) D.A.??

According to Berkshires press release yesterday they had taken delivery of 80 mil oz and would taking delivery of the rest by March 8. The initial 80 mil draw down almost exactly paralleled the COMEX stockpile drawdown over the same time period.

So does the fact that Buffet will be taking delivery of another 40 million ounces by March 8 mean that COMEX stockpiles will decline by 40 million ounces ( approx 10 million a week ) ???

why is gold stalled?

Gold 299.50
XAU 77.55

Please try to understand one thing. It is hard enough for the group to focus its descussion to the subjects that this forum was created in the first place.

Now, if we all add our "sense of humour" what we are going to have? This is prime time, we need PM developments, worthwhile news, INFO. In the off hours there is time for "humour".

Now back to business, without astrology, football, Monica, BC, etc.

.

.

for Myrmidon
you reported 580. I reported 480 tons of gold for RSA production.
Does this mean that you are after my job of propaganda Minister.
Thats ok - you can have it - it doesnt pay anything. Where
did that other hundred - could it have been a typo ??Oh no
not that.

Just checked Ira Epstein's quotes march 700 calls 25 pts,even if they are only good for8or9 days why would anyone sell them? ( hedge against futures profits? ) oh don't touch my left wing ( ouch )

GFD,

Regarding your question whether the COMEX stocks will be drawn down as a result of Mr. Buffett's announced delivery intentions, I don't think anyone can say. The important point that your question does raise is that the Buffett announcement is more bullish than might appear at first blush ( if possible ) . That's because while it has been reported that he bought 130 million ounces, that's not quite true. 40 million plus ounces must still be taken from the aready tight cash market. While some talk of sales from India and from individuals, that is speculation. The fact that Mr. Buffett is waiting on 40 million more from the cash market is fact.

By JONATHAN FUERBRINGER

The price of silver jumped to more than $7 an ounce Wednesday -- its highest since 1988 -- as the market got a lift from the news that the company controlled by Warren Buffett, one of the nation's most prominent investors, now owns $910 million worth of the precious metal.

The announcement by Berkshire Hathaway Inc., after the close of the market Tuesday, helped explain the recent rally in the price of silver, which has jumped more than 60 percent since he began buying July 25.

It also appears to have given other investors confidence to bet on a further rise in silver prices and helped increase the value of Buffett's holdings by $52.5 million Wednesday alone.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the industry regulator, had no comment Wednesday on the Berkshire purchases. The commission has recently said it was monitoring the silver market for unusual activity.

But the size of the Berkshire stake -- 129.7 million ounces, in addition to recent assertions of manipulation in the silver market, and the memory of silver purchases by the Hunt brothers of Texas nearly two decades ago, have added to the focus on the Berkshire purchases.

The Hunts and others were charged in a CFTC administrative complaint with acquiring a hoard of silver in an effort to manipulate the market in 1979 and 1980; the Hunts settled the charges.

The statement from Berkshire stressed there was nothing to the company's purchases beyond a bet that the supply-and-demand fundamentals favored a higher silver price. It added, "Berkshire has had no knowledge of the actions or positions of any other market participant and today has no such knowledge."

One of the strengths of the case against the Hunts was the fact that they did not accumulate the silver alone; that made it hard to argue they were just making their own bet on the price of silver.

Dennis A. Klejna, director of the CFTC enforcement division at the time of the Hunt complaint, said in an interview Wednesday that "it is very difficult to establish manipulation under the law, because there are very legitimate reasons for people to purchase large amounts of commodity futures contracts or large amounts of physical commodities."

Separately Wednesday, Phibro, a commodities-trading firm, confirmed that it was the dealer for all the silver purchases by Berkshire. Phibro is a unit of the Travelers Group, in which Berkshire has a major stake.

Last week, a Canadian investor filed suit in U.S. District in New York, contending that Phibro had moved silver from warehouses in the United States to hidden locations in an effort to mislead traders about supplies and push the price higher. A Phibro official denied all the charges Wednesday.

Silver for March delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $7.02 Wednesday, up 40.5 cents, or 6.1 percent. One sign of the immediate demand for silver is that the price for near-term delivery is above that for delivery of silver later in the year, a trading inversion known as backwardation.

Analysts said they expected the Buffett silver holdings to give the market a near-term lift. Especially comforting, they said, was Buffett's reputation as a long-term investor; the disclosure that he was behind the recent purchases, they added, meant there was less fear now that large quantities of silver would be immediately sold by someone looking to cash in on the recent gains.

"When Warren Buffett buys silver, that's good enough for me," said Andrew Smith, precious metals analyst at Union Bank of Switzerland in London. "Are you going to say this is the first market he's got wrong?"

But Smith noted that there would be some offsetting forces to the Buffett-inspired rise now that the price has moved above $7 an ounce. For instance, India, a major consumer of silver, has slowed its purchases recently as prices moved higher.

John Lutley, senior consultant to the Silver Institute in Washington, said that purchases for jewelry and tableware could also slow because of the higher price. Jewelry and tableware accounted for about 35 percent of
silver consumption last year, according to the CPM Group, a precious-metals and commodity consulting firm.

But Lutley argued that other big users of silver -- from photo film to electronics and batteries -- were less sensitive to price increases because the silver is often just a small part of the overall cost of the product it goes into. And he added, "For 10 years, manufacturers have had the advantage of low silver prices."

Buffett, in his statement, said that he had made the bet on silver because in recent years the rise in the demand for silver had outrun the supply from mine production and reclamation. The difference has been made up by the silver already above ground held by investors. But that supply has recently dropped sharply.

According to the CPM Group, the demand for silver in 1997 was 800.5 million ounces, compared with a supply from mine production and scrap of 586.4 million ounces. The increased use of silver has been driven by the jewelry industry, where the consumption of silver jumped to 283.7 million ounces in 1997 from 91.2 million ounces in 1988. In photography, consumption rose to 240.2 million ounces last year, up from 185.1 million
ounces in 1988.

The rise in silver prices over the last half-year has gained attention in part because it came as gold prices were plunging to 18-year lows. Gold has been a less attractive investment for several reasons, including threats by central banks to sell big holdings. Also, the supply shortage in gold is much smaller than for silver.

But Buffett -- because he is Buffett -- has given his investment an added lift with his company's announcement.
A major holder of a commodity has not been able to get such a boost since April 1993, when the late Sir James Goldsmith and the hedge-fund operator George Soros publicly promoted a deal in which Soros invested in Sir James' Newmont Mining Corp. and Sir James used the proceeds to buy options on gold. The transactions helped push prices higher.

The silver purchases by Berkshire Hathaway were made in London, a center of activity in the silver market. The purchases were done with over-the-counter contracts, in which Buffett bought silver for delivery at future dates.

Since he began he has accepted delivery of 87.51 million ounces, which are apparently now sitting in the vaults of London bullion banks. The remaining 42.2 million ounces must be delivered between now and March 6.

Gentleman, you really should ask yourselves why Mr. Buffett chose to make his position so public before you get totally and completely carried away with the enthusiasm I see registering on this always interesting chat line. Mr. Buffett is clearly a genius investor, but he does err ( witness his purchase of US Air preferred shares at high prices and his liquidation of the same at the worst possible time. Witness his adventures in Soloman Brothers also ) . It seems reasonably obvious that after accumulating a sizeable line of silver, he has lured the public into buying... quite probably to liquidate into a liquid market.

As Sgt. Esterhaus used to say each day, Be careful out there.

P.S. Mr. Lubman, that was a very first rate post you made earlier. WEll done; keep it up please, for it certainly beats the rather sophmoric breast beating that takes place far too often on this most excellent posting place.

John, the numbers come from the following site:

http://mbendi.co.za/indy/ming/mingafmn.htm

I know that sooner or later we will get these numbers right!

.

I have tried to make this available on my site,but appears that it has encountered some problems-- if you wish to view it,please send me a E-mail at jsmith@wire.net.au.

it resides at www.wire.net.au you need to go to

/~jsmith/charts/silver/brokerpage1.doc

aslo brokerpage2.doc and brokerpage3.doc

all files are in word7 format

predictable responses....work looks better now.....
away


Midas, is this the same ( ho hum, boring? ) gold market that has produced much profit for the people w/o blinders?? Ho hum......yeah sure. Sounds of sour grapes.....instead of ho hum, try boo hoo. And I don't skip any post. speed read yes, skip? no...ho hum...

rodnoel....bite me ( is my typical response to fiesty, unoriginal, Canadin Humour ( humor ) )

ted, burrito time... ( waft ) ...munch, munch...

Keep up the good work.

Probably the silver is quoted in Aussie dollars.

It came from its London office--it appears well researched

EB: Was gettin concerned ya drowned er somethin...P.S.'Youth' ain't their only concern ( try stupidity.... ( eh ) ... ) ~~~~Am off ta Sydney ta continue ta beat me head against a brick wall ( ouch ) ....

Is this right?
If I were to lease silver for one month I could get a 75% return ( p.a. ) on deal....hmmmm makes you wonder if you'd ever see the silver again?

humour~~~~~~~~~~bbl kiddies! and oh yeah,go Gold!..P.S. Is EB a 'pinko-commie-bastard'?

It is time for the faint of heart to step aside !!!!!

What"s it"s name? Japan? Yeah that's it. That Tsunami will be rolling
into your favorite local authorize CB in March when their insurance companies start heading for the exits.Hold onto your PM policies.
The bugs of all persuasions will have their day.US dollar will sink,
AG will reflate big time.Look ahead,silver and gold will be the asset
class of choice based on fundamentals that are forming in the Pacific.

One day at the end of class, little Johnny's teacher has the
class go home and think of a story and then conclude the moral of that
story. The following day the teacher asks for the first volunteer to
tell their story, and little Suzy raises her hand.

"My dad owns a farm and every Sunday we load the chicken eggs on
the truck and drive into town to sell them at the market. Well, one
Sunday we hit a big bump and all the eggs flew out of the basket and
onto the road."

The teacher asks for the moral of the story. Suzy replies,
"Don't keep all your eggs in one basket."

Next is little Lucy. "Well my dad owns a farm too and every
weekend we take the chicken eggs and put them in the incubator. Last
weekend only 8 of the 12 eggs hatched."

The teacher asks for the moral of the story. Lucy replies "Don't
count your eggs before they're hatched."

Last is little Johnny. "My uncle Ted fought in the Vietnam war;
his plane was shot down over enemy territory. He jumped out before it
crashed with only a case of beer, a machine gun and a machete. On the
way down he drank the case of beer. Unfortunately, he landed right in
the middle of 100 Vietnamese soldiers. He shot 70 with his machine gun,
but ran out of bullets, so he pulled out his machete and killed 20 more.
The blade on his machete broke, so he killed the last ten with his bare
hands"

Teacher looks in shock at Johnny and asks if there is possibly
any moral to his story.

Johnny replies, "Don't fuk with uncle Ted when he's been
drinking."
******************************************************************
Only the individual sender is responsible for the content of this
message, and the message does not necessarily reflect the position
or policy of the National Education Association or its affiliates.

.

that came off a little rough ( so much for sarcastic humour, or whatever that was ) . sorry dude. i like your contributions, seriously....
away


ted, i is communist, go stalin, go lenin, castro is my drinking pal. He loves Cazadores and Tol1, BC and I go down to Cuba ( t is kinda like mecca ) on the weekends to play cards and do Ho's and slam shots. Bil can put it down, and the stamina that man has is legendary. Read about it on the pages of kitco every night.
?

Mid-Feb

to zimbabwe to deliver a brain...
rainsforsale

Maybe you are tracking the wrong guy

XAU found resistance at 74.50 and has moved back up to 75.75; GCJ8bottomed at 297.50 and is heading up, but has resistance ahead at 299.50. Will the XAU pull it through? It looks like morning profit taking is over. Is there enough buying strength in the stocks to pull things back up?

Two months ago the shorters had total control of the Gold market and today they are meeting strong resistance! They sell it down on the open only to see it come back at them by days end.The breakout is near and when the margin calls hit watchout for severe spikes like we have only dreamed about. The music is about to stop and lease rates will stop this foolish practice.

Very few drugs, give a guy the kind of high, people who have a basement full of silver bars are getting right now!!! ENDORPHINS are great!!! Thursday February 5, 11:18 am Eastern Time

Gold fixed lower, silver below day's highs

LONDON, Feb 5 ( Reuters ) - Gold fixed lower on Thursday afternoon as silver dropped from
the day's highs reached after panic buying earlier in the trading day, dealers said.

Gold was fixed at $298.50 against the morning fix of $298.90. Spot gold was last quoted at
$295.75/$296.25 after spiking to $303.70 earlier.

Silver began to lose ground and spot was last quoted at $7.35/$7.45 -- down from the morning
fix at $7.54 and off the day's high of $7.90.

Dealers said silver, which had been rallying on the back of news that U.S. billionaire Warren
Buffett had bought some 20 percent of the world's estimated annual supply through Berkshire
Hathaway Inc ( NYSE:BRKa - news; BRI - news ) , had lost ground after heavy buying in the
morning.

``We saw panic buying this morning but since most of the short-covering was finished for the
day, we have seen it drift off and now we are seeing some stop-loss selling on the downside,'' a
dealer said.

He said some short-term traders might have been caught in long positions at the high levels.

But he expected the metal to continue trading in a very wide range of $7.00 to $7.75.

Gold's push above the important level of $300.00 an ounce failed to hold and the metal dropped
back in the afternoon.

Dealers said bullion had run out of steam.

``There was no follow-through when we got above $304.00, people got themselves long on the
back of the silver. And with no follow-through we have just been seeing stop-loss selling this
afternoon,'' the dealer said.

Platinum also dropped back from higher levels.

It was last quoted at $396.00/$398.00, above Wednesday's close of $391.50/$393.50. The
metal was fixed in the afternoon at $404.00.

Dealers said platinum was higher on the back of silver and uncertainty about Russian supplies.

Palladium was last quoted at $236.00/$238.00 an ounce, down from Wednesday's close at
$238.25/$240.25.

.

RLubman- I don't think that that remedial reading
course helped you any. Got some FCXprD ( 200sh ) , now
I understand why better.

.

Date: Wed Feb 04 1998 14:15
Avalon ( Phibro was broker for Buffett; ) ID#254269:


http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980204/phibro_con_2.html

Wednesday February 4, 1:31 pm Eastern Time
Phibro confirms it was broker for Buffett silver


Buffet said Berkshire Hathaway had already taken delivery of 87.5 million ounces of silver and had contracted for a further 42.2 million ounces for delivery at various dates until March 6, but would would be willing to defer delivery for a reasonable period on payment of a ``modest fee'' if any seller should have trouble making delivery.




SEE:
Date: Wed Feb 04 1998 19:41
Barb Hughes ( @ALL ) ID#20783:
SILVER LEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It seems like WB, tossed out the lure that HIS SILVER IS FOR LEASE


NOW PAY ATTENTION IN THE ARTICLE TO:

PAYMENT OF A MODEST FEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Take careBarb

EB re your 11:24, and your new position as site topic monitor. In case you hadn't noticed, Gold's biggest move up in months, came as a direct result of falling Treasuries, and falling confidence in U.S. plotical stability, which was also a direct result of the Lewinsky scandal. Pay attention dude...

While everyone watches the silver market these two Gentlemen are putting the market to sleep while they load up on Gold! They know that the powers to be will offer stiff resistance to a sharp rise in gold and they will take advantage of this opportunity to accumulate. The time is drawing nearer but I guarentee you that it will not breakout until their position is in place.

who have been shaking Gold

What say? Do you want to earn 42%
on your money?

Asian Fallout

Russia is Stunned

The glass is now half
empty.

Russia's leaders thought the
country might get away with
it. But Russia has not
escaped the aftershocks of
Asia's crisis. Its stock
market, which soared 195
per cent in the first 10
months of last year, has
plunged 49 per cent from its
peak. Domestic interest
rates have jumped to 42 per
cent. And the rouble could
still be in jeopardy: currency
traders are circling round.

Russian officials seem
stunned by the injustice of it
all. "The fundamentals are
not so bad," says a mystified
Sergei Aleksashenko,
deputy governor of the
central bank. "They are the
same as they were three
months ago, so what has
changed?"

What has changed, changed
utterly, is investor sentiment.
Last year, emboldened by
the seemingly unstoppable
rise of markets worldwide,
investors looked at Russia's
messy transition to
capitalism and saw a glass
that was half full. Soon, they
believed, it would be
overflowing, as the country
shifted to economic growth.

Now, as the impact of the
Asian crisis sinks in,
investors see a glass that is
half empty. Deep-rooted
problems, to which analysts
paid scant heed before the
impact of the Asia crisis
became clear, are suddenly
centre stage. Investors are
particularly exercised by
Russia's chronic public
finance problems and its
patchy record on corporate
governance. Foreign money
is being withdrawn from the
rouble-denominated bond
market, with $600m fleeing
last month. Russian banks
are increasingly reluctant to
write forward contracts in
roubles.

The anxiety has been
heightened by the plunge in
world prices for crude oil. In
addition to denting Russia's
healthy balance of trade and
thus depleting the central
bank's modest $16bn
reserves, low oil prices could
further weaken public
finances. Russia stands to
lose $1bn in tax revenues if
oil prices for Urals crude oil
average $15.50 a barrel this
year, according to MC
Securities, an investment
bank. Urals crude is trading
at around $13.60.

"If oil export revenues fall,
our balance of trade could be
very low or negative," says
Mikhail Friedman, head of
the Alfa group and one of
Moscow's top businesssmen.
"That would put the rouble in
a very tenuous position."

If the rouble begins to fall,
the government could lose
credibility fast and the
effects could be devastating.
One of Moscow's main
achievements in this decade
of market reforms has been
to rein in runaway inflation
and stabilise the rouble. A
big devaluation could destroy
this hard-won success,
forcing Russia back into a
spiral of hyperinflation and a
collapsing currency.

"If they don't defend the
rouble it would be utterly
disastrous, all the gains from
stabilisation would be wiped
out," says Al Breach, an
economist at the Russian
European Centre for
Economic Policy. "A
devaluation would be a
bottomless pit."

To avert this nightmare
scenario, local and foreign
businesses are pressing the
Russian government to
produce a strong, clearly
articulated fiscal austerity
programme, including sharp
cuts to public spending,
aggressive action on tax
collection, and a commitment
to industrial restructuring,
including bankruptcies.

At the moment, that seems
unlikely. Riven by
internecine battles and still
dazed by the abrupt turn in
international markets, the
Russian cabinet shows little
sign of following Brazil's
example by putting together
such a package ( see story on
right ) . Although there has
been no fanfare broadcasting
a cohesive "emergency
programme", some analysts
argue that Russia has in fact
been pursuing some of the
required measures. It has,
for example, been tough on
tax collection, collecting 40
per cent more taxes last
month than it did in January
1997.

Ironically, the rouble's
salvation may come not from
any steps taken by the
Kremlin, but rather thanks to
the underdevelopment of the
sapling market economy.
Thanks to the immaturity of
the lending system, high
interest rates - the central
bank's chief weapon in
defending the rouble - may
be easier to sustain than in
more developed economies.
Domestic mortgages are
almost non-existent and
corporate loans of more than
six months accounted for
only 3.5 per cent of total
banking assets in October.

"Interest rates simply do not
have the importance here
that they do in more
developed economies," says
Christopher Granville, head
of research at United City
Bank, a Moscow investment
bank. "It is clear that the
central bank will allow
interest rates to rise as high
as they have to defend the
rouble."

Even if the rouble survives,
Russia faces a bleak year.
High interest are likely to
choke off economic growth,
with the central bank now
predicting only 1 per cent for
the year ( against an original
estimate of up to 4 per cent ) .
Many western investors
expect even less.

For Russia's long-suffering
people, who have already
endured a decade of severe
economic contraction, that is
a dark forecast. Since 1995,
Russia's leaders have
inaugurated every year with
a pledge that, at last, the
country was about to reap
the rewards of its painful
market transition.

This year has been no
exception. Just last week,
President Boris Yeltsin
ordered his cabinet to
produce growth of 2-4 per
cent, or suffer the
consequences. Beyond the
fate of the rouble, a question
for Russia is how the
country's aging titan will
react when his minions
explain that in 1998, yet
again, economic growth is
likely to prove elusive.

Financial Times, Feb. 5,
1998

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980205/lbma_exten_1.html

TZADEAK* http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980205/lbma_exten_1.html

Somebody yesterday was musing about how much silver is available to the physical market when he said, "why buy 80 million onces in NY and then ship it to London?" Now, we imagine that there are fewer reporting restrictions in London...wouln't want to repeat the Hunt's experience this time around. But why not buy it there in the first place? Maybe because there simply isn't enough there. Witness the buying panic in London this morning. Hit $7.90. Do they know something in London we don't know over here on this side of the pond?

Barb H:
"...if any sellers have trouble making their delivery...payment of a modest fee"?? This sounds less to me like an offer to lease his silver than it does like an admission that there are going to be shortages and he's trying to allay panic and to inject some moderation into the psychology.

Can anyone confirm the silver lease rates posted at Kitco this morning? When I looked, today's were listed at 5.??% down from yesterday's 30%. Are these figures correct? What could induce such a radical drop overnight? Could it be related to Buffet's offer? Like shorts who were expecting to have to deliver on time and now hope to get by for a "modest fee" at delivery day? Thoughts anyone?

Droping open interest and very little volume?got to think major victory today if can hold off obvious big boys attack on 300 support.

There appears to be little doubt in my view that the PPT has been again
DEEP up to their knees in ,desperately trying to keep the precious
Yellow below 300, as a psychological tool to counter the move by
Platinum over 400 today...and Palladium is around 240, Geeh just $50
or so more and it will be higher than Gold hmmm...Silver of course is
headed "to the moon"....heard a rumor that the US was considering selling some from strategic stockpiles...yah right...I think they only
have about 60 Mill oz, then what?.... You know what's coming when you see headlines that read "US treasuries lower on reports of Loewenski
immunity" and US layoffs highest in 2 years" the US$ has only one way to go,after a brief, last rise on BJ's bombing, and that is Down!.... I wish BJ's
would stay down... as I noted yesterday Russia is looking to re-establish
itself in the ME, looking for $, Yeltsin again today,"NO FORCE, US is BULLY"...He is to make a state of the union ? speech on Feb 17.....
Japan is talking up the YEN.....and Saddam today FREED all Arab
prisoners from his jails, PR move in the area or what?....China, the only
permanent member of the UN security council to vote against The
Gulf War in 1990, said again today "NO FORCE" and "Could spark
regional war".....stay tuned.....

.

as metals guru, drug tester, debate leader, and butt-sniffer.....come down ( not from drugs ) outta the clouds. I think you're starving for oxygen, or maybe Monica...This is the second drug use accusation you have made on this public forum ( remember cherokee when he made the 50% retracement call that came to pass ) . He musta been sooooo high on drugs.... so, What's your point?

There is a finite amount of information about any topic. After the subject has been thoroughly 'done' all else becomes useless ( except for jokes ) and a bit tedious ( kinda like how you were last summer, but you have changed I know....sure ) .

If Bill Clintons' alleged 'hummer' from Lewinsky was the impetus for starting any market moves than god help us. And there is no need to discuss my attention span. It is perfectly ..........er......what's your name?

I will stop now from anymore comments because the mushrooms are really kicking in now. And I have to go clean my hookah....my package from Istanbul just arrived. And I must use the phone to call my broker......ar.....uh......my dealer. He has a 2 for 1 specials on crack.
away...to the Clinic for my Methodone fix.


midas, my reference to communism was not to you, it was to ted....came off wrong again, sorry, must be all the drugs...

based on lewinsky comments that she looks fat on Camera and just bought a membership to Gold's Gym ( lgb, not a place for gold to work out, it's for people ) . The rush is on to short the market. What will happen to gold when Mr. T is rumored to be a seller? Time to buy some Puts??
away...to read the National Enquirer for market info


Me thinks you protest too much, musta hit a nerve, but you're an amusing little feller, I'll give ya that

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980205/us_treasur_5.html

Some folks obviously havn't been payin attention to what has been driving markets lately! Course Clinton has a free pass now that it has been demonstrated clearly that the American public now doesn't care if he has comitted perjury, lied, connived, or molested children! With his ratings at an all time high "post" Lewinsky, he has a free pass to do whatever he please, whenever he pleases, however he pleases, without accountability. Nevertheless, Gold's rise from 285 to 300, was an indirect result of the Lewinsky scandal. That's not my opnion excusively, virtually all reputable analysts made the link, it wasn't "rocket science" tp figure it out.

All:

I have spoken with someone who has some insight into the hedge books of some precious metals producers. It seems that in addition to hedging away some of the upside in the markets, some companies have actually gotten themselves into the remarkable position of being exposed to major pain in the event of violent up moves. We could in the very near future be treated to the rather startling juxtaposition in the financial pages:

Precious Metals Soar in Response to ........

XYZ Mining Company Declares Chapter 11 -- Derivatives to blame.

On the topic of silver, the one group of which we have not heard from are the consumers. I heard where Kodak announced that they had long term supply contracts. Rumor has it that they are unhedged with respect to price. If we are in the ballpark of the new equilibrium price for silver, then Kodak is going to take about a 250,000,000 dollar hit relative to last year. If history is any guide they will act like the coffee roasters and be the hedgers that define the top of the market.

LGB: Wake up dude yourself!

The causes of the rapidly stalling gold move are many and merit discussion here. Asserting categorically that they are due only to "falling treasuries...and recent political instability" sheds less light on the situation than it does to serve as your personal soapbox to force your narrow-minded political views on the rest of us. The Lewinsky thing is dying its inevitable and well-deserved death. How about we leave it alone and focus on the business at hand?

Is there a second?

Thanks for posting article that immediatly ( if not sooner ) demonstrates EB's ignorance on this matter. Ain't real time Web communications grand?? Back to school EB, and off them reefers dude!

Ted ---Go long that C$ ---Go Long Gold ----Forget EB ---Lets Go Gold ---C$ ----Away To change positions Go Gold Go.

as some of the banks are mixed up in this debacle it is tantamount that they deliver on there paper promises or the whole system will be thrown into question...particularly the balloning paper gold market.

World over fiat currencies and market madness is throwing every transaction into question. Where's the beef? No longer is it trust and altruism...no it is every man for himself.

LGB have you changed your tune yet on the rosier than heaven outlook for the fat-arse yankees wallowing in self-righteousness and a paper debt mountain. What happens to $5 trillion dollars when you have to pay it back with ever weakening dollars?...What would happen if US had to pay off it's $5 trillion dollar debt with gold?....Even at today's dirt cheap price there isn't enough gold in the world to cover US debt...let alone Asia, Russia, China, Japan,....get the picture?

When the rush to real wealth begins you can forget bonds or any other sort of promissory note....fiat currencies as we know them are dying and we are witnessing the death throes of the outer limbs.

Interesting fact; the US secret service is an office of the treasury..hmmm.

Funny how diehard Clinton supporters will rabidly come to his defense no matter how many scandals expose him for the fraud he is, and no matter how much garbage piles up in his back yard. You leftists are makin a mistake though, if he were my man I'd have abandoned support for him long ago in favor of someone with at least a TINY bit of honest integrity. But then, that's politics. If it was Newt Gingrich in the presidency and something like this was going on, you and EB would be posting like mad on the subject....yeah go ahead and deny it pal....we all know what's up!

PS, read Tzadeak's post, Treasuries down on the latest LEWINSKY scandal news, get a clue....it may not help Gold this time but it certainly did 2 weeks ago....

Only defense I've heard from B.C. on down is forget about it,can't do it as the leader goes so goes the country,if it doesn't bother you EB and PH then quit whining about it,it aint going away soon.

No change in long term outlook yet Kiwi. I still believe that the U.S. economy is strong and looks good for the long term. The 5 trillion debt is too large, must be be looked at realtive to the GDP and it's growth over the past few years.

I'm disappointed that the coming budget surplus is already looked at as just cause ( by Democrats ) toi immediately start spending money we don't have, instead of paying down the debt, but perhaps the Republicans will knock some sense into em, considering Bill C. will be fairly crippled in his final years trashing America's presidential institution.

( PS, to PHinLA and EB, I relished seeing Nixon's fall because he almost singlehandely destroyed faith in the executive branch with his incredible arrogance and absue of power....Clinton is a Nixon Clone in sheep's clothing who gets away with it cause he "cares"...uh huh... )

as long as I am making money in these markets I guess I don't give an interns ass what goes on in DC or B. Hills. You can rest assured that this little-amusing-fellar is well informed regarding market moves ( thanks for your concern ) . And thanks for the compliment, it feels so good coming from your left hand. I know that your right hand is busy right now...... ( spunk ) ...
away.....finally


.........and now he is an alleged child molester? what next... ( ugh ) ...

Phil in LA,

I think the jury is still out on both gold and Lewinsky.

Gold needs to do some basing, but it is hanging around the $300 level. Today's failed spike reminds me of what took place three weeks ago when gold was at $290.

As for Lewinsky, although the topic is off the front pages, the legal part of the matter continues to unfold.

For a cncise look at the situartion, try

http://www.mindspring.com/~dennisw/articles/clinton/3.htm

That article should show you the matter isn't dead by a long shot.

And one thing that article didn't mention, yesterday, Lewinsky's lawyer said that Monica wouldn't "fall on her sword" for Clinton the way Susan McDougal did.

Keep your eye on both stories -- Lewinsky and gold. We may get joy out of both of them before it's over.

The Preacher

It seems to me that those in the practice of shorting gold will begin to take some caution from Silver. Silver may be just a dress rehearsal for an eventual serious move upward in gold.

One word of caution for being long on gold though. I think we might currently be in wave 4 of an inverted impulse with a target somewhere around 340 before moving to 5 down. I hope positive fundamentals will minimize any low projections for target 5.

MSNBC just said Starr is investigating whether Monica accompanied BJC to Greg Norman's/West Palm Beach fund raiser last year.

Certainly, any sustained war with Iraq ( or Libya or whomever, if the war should broaden ) would result in three significant results:

1 ) Military sector -- that has been long dormant -- would revivify and compete for monies with the private sector. Net result: higher interest rates to preclude inflation.

2 ) Populist unease ( created by sustained war ) would result in investors pulling monies out of stock market en masse, converting savings into consumption. Although America has a low inflation rate, this fact is completely contingent on U.S. investors continually rolling over their investments in mutual funds. Any left field event that would cause mutual fund investors to cash out as little as 10-25% of their invested funds ( given the incredible amounts invested today ) would ultimately result in significant double digit inflation. In other words, TODAY THE INFLATION IS IN THE STOCK MARKET, NOT IN BANK ACCOUNTS.

3 ) A sharp jolt upward in inflation would trigger a debacle in equities and bonds along with monies flowing into PM's. Gold's upward move would be sharp and explosive.

PH in LA
Asia is not over - 1/3 of the worlds population and economy - has and will again move Gold.

Monica has till end of the week to cut a deal - subject is not dead and has moved and will again move Gold.

Saddam has only a few days now, 4th carrier in the Gulf - subject is not dead and moves Gold.

You can not put your head in the sand and just keep saying some mystical person or whatever moves Gold - real people and events move Gold.

Russian credit markets are a mess. Brazil, Mexico, etc.

These kind of events have moved Gold since the beginning of time.
A comparison: Bill and Monica VS. Caesar and Cleopatra.

Now what do you all think is going to happen when all of this crap along with the Asian mess hit the fan at once. Please do not ignore the real issues here.

Presidential Impeachment pending
WAR with potential Terrorism
Hyper Inflation
Deflation Depression
Potential Market Crashes
Market and News Manipulation
Precious Metals - where, when, who, what, how, why, etc. - any answers, anytime, PLEASE!

Thats Life, ain't it cool dudes!

HighRise

At Greg Normons,
Isn't that where he broke his leg?

You are right on the money with your evaluation. I say this because my broker who has been bearish on gold up to this point, also agrees, he has even gone out on a limb and bought some call options for his own account.
I haven't seen him loose money thus far and there is no reason he would pick now to begin.

LGB:

Boy, missed all that drug stuff for a second there. Your weak-minded thought processes are glaring again for all to see. "Most analysts have made the connection between Lewinsky and gold's rise from $285 - $300"??

Indeed?

Very convenient 20-20 hindsight!
As usual...if its obvious?...obviously...

We know how you like astrology for the same reasons. Gets me to thinking about the "obvious" connection between our recent rainstorm and gold's rise from $285 - $300. As any good weatherman with an ax to grind would say, "just being factored into the market in advance", don't you think?

BTW, this is the first I have heard any mention of President Clinton's molesting of children. Would you care to elaborate? Post any URL's etc or was that. swipe just more butt sniffing?

What did I miss? Yikes! Silver UP in panic BUYING? I don't get it. I understand the Gold blow-off. Anyone got the scoop on the fundamentals behind silver?? I've got a bunch of physical that I'm going to unload soon. $8.00 silver around the bend?

The upper house, have tonight ------Then Gold will show its true shine ----Away to count my future profits.

that was this mornings lesson on how to open a can-o-worms. There seems to be many nerves getting frazzled here. You all need to take a chill pill and concentrate on the direction of your profits for they could be fleeting and no amount of political blow-jobing can help. And don't get your nickers in a bunch, lgb, I am just telling you to recognize how far up you are and what a painful landing the fall could be...too far, too fast.
jman, not you again...what is wrong now, did you get caught with your pants down also?


US Bond 5.92 % vs 5.70 %
US$ 123.48 vs. 130.00
Gold 300.70 -0.50 vs 280.00

Something has been happening, you think?

It is starting to fall apart people. Get ready.

HighRise

.

.

Word today is that WB is buying puts against his physical holdings. This bodes well for support at these levels and potential for much higher prices. There is no indication at all that this silver will hit the market anytime soon. I'm still waiting for a pull back to load up. My clients are straining at the gates and everyone wants a piece of this silver thingie. With 50 cent days, major $ can be made on day trades. A net 35 - 40% return in 24 hours is pretty sweet. I have been very cautious in the current market, and I want to see the gap filled at about 5.60. I also want world peace and a flat rate income tax, but a guy can dream can't he?

Just bought 4000 shares today. I was really impressed by the gap up yesterday and massive volume. Seems to have built a solid base at around a buck. Do you all think that silver will take a breather at around $7 and then continue up or did I just pull a real boner here?

Word today is that WB is buying puts against his physical holdings. This bodes well for support at these levels and potential for much higher prices. There is no indication at all that this silver will hit the market anytime soon. I'm still waiting for a pull back to load up. My clients are straining at the gates and everyone wants a piece of this silver thingie. With 50 cent days, major $ can be made on day trades. A net 35 - 40% return in 24 hours is pretty sweet. I have been very cautious in the current market, and I want to see the gap filled at about 5.60. I also want world peace and a flat rate income tax, but a guy can dream can't he?

DA your post is most interesting. Last night ANOTHER said that the LBMA and ABX were 'at risk'. I was most intrigued by this comment and have been trying to figure out what ABX is up to but being a neophyte I am having difficulty. I'm assuming they are massively short however JTF indicated last night he thought they could be having problems relating to the way they sold their production forward. Can you guess as to what might be going on? Any comments would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance

I hear a thunder and a great power rumbling. Could gold be waking up
out of a deep sleep and stepping out of the recovery room any moment now. Watch tomarrow as gold finally starts to glitter. The masses will be
in deniel as gold shows it great strength and tremendous power. Long live the gold bull.

I apologize for blaming you, it wasn't personal. Please forgive.

WWHHHHOAAA, BABY!!! Last desperate gold producers locked in + 300 prices today...more Arab sales of gold for military arms purchases...woosie shorts covering in a panic...big boy accumulations all over the place.

HOLD ONTO YOUR CHAIRS....GOLD ROCKET GETTING READY TO JOIN SILVER ROCKET TO THE SKY!!!!!! AAAAAAAHHHHHIIIEEEIIIEHHEEEEHIEEEII!!!

HAGGIS, BREAK OUT THE SCOTCH!!!

You heard it from me first...

( REPEAT AFTER ME IN A LOUD, FIRM VOICE )

IF YOU'RE SHORTING GOLD ( AND SILVER ) IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, THEN YOU'RE EITHER TOTALLY INSANE OR YOU'VE GOT BALLS OF STEEL!!!

LGB: You are not the only Kitcoite riding the silver wave - me too!-- Do you recall RJ was humble enough to say he missed the WB surprise? -- and RJ is a pro. Would you admit your mistakes? Also -- I would refrain from leaning on EB -- he is a pro also.

You profess to have turned over a new leaf -- why don't you show us by remaining humble, even when you are right! When you are on the side of being right that is the stiffest test of character. On average, people like RJ, D.A., EB, Oldman, APH and others are far more likely to offer than useful opinions than you or I -- but our input in terms of respectful criticism is worthwhile I think to this site. Recently your comments have been very informative, by the way.

Where is Anothers post warning about ABX - I missed it. Or is this someone refering to Anothers comments on paper versus owning the PM itself?

HighRise

.

23:39

I have taken the bull by the horns today, and I intend to ride it sucessfully.

Yet another tirade agaist the move in silver.

http://www.pei-intl.com/HMEFRAME.HTM

RJ: Markets on breakouts are often irrational and big moves are to be expected. Market dynamics do not follow logic, just emotions. Chartists are pointing out the 5th wave, and next week the 6th!! When the movement starts on gold it will be big, as in silver.

all: TVX has propably sold forward silver, is this why it is acting poorly?

ought-ought

( smile ) gotta go

Break out the scotch, mate!!!!!

Thanks

HighRise

I would appreciate your e-mail so that I could ask you some questions about U.S. discount commodity brokers. If you don't want to post it, mine is sear@ampsc.com.

The url did not work. Go to their home page or the url below and click on How Commodity Markets Function.

http://www.pei-intl.com/HMEFRAME.HTM

However I have some good news for you, I have done some homework on ssc on the New York stock exchange. It traded 9.5 million shares today, and your 4000 is just adding fuel to the fire that is about to blow.
They have a reported 28million ounces of silver in that there mine.
hmmm; multiply 28 million by $10/ounze silver = 2.8 billion dollar market cap. or $7.00/ share

Haggis went sleeping at 10:20, he will not be up for another 6 hrs.

RJ - "Word today is that WB is buying puts against his physical holding" - buying or writing?

NJ:

Could you post where on the site is the article. Thanks.

30 yr. bond at 5.916%. Volume on NYSE 701 million shares. NASDAQ also had a brisk day with 858 million shares. That's a lot of shares, folks.
That long bond is also getting pretty close to 6%.

All through the day, ONE BIG TUG OF WAR...

It's just a commodity...
no, it's a financial reserve...
it's a Godd___n commodity...
BS, it's a financial reserve...
F__K you, it's a commodity...
like hell, it is...it's a financial reserve!

D.A. Second article in top left corner titled " How the Futures Market Function"
A key sentence is "Metal loans, leasing and forward contracts never stopped the rallies in 1980 and indeed without them there can be no rally in the first place."
In 1980 there were no dirt cheap bank loans etc. This was a brain child of Peter Munk after he acquired the Barrick property at "Dirt" cheap prices.

D.A.
Second article in top left corner of home page entitled " How the Future Markets Function"
A key sentence is "Metal loans, leasing and forward contracts never stopped the rallies in 1980 and indeed without them there can be no rally in the first place."
In 1980 there were no dirt cheap bank loans etc. This was a brain child of Peter Munk after he acquired the Barrick property at "Dirt" cheap prices.

D.A.
Second article in top left corner of home page entitled " How the Future Markets Function"
A key sentence is "Metal loans, leasing and forward contracts never stopped the rallies in 1980 and indeed without them there can be no rally in the first place."
In 1980 there were no dirt cheap bank loans etc. This was a brain child of Peter Munk after he acquired the Barrick property at "Dirt" cheap prices.

Wha? Have I been crowin about silver? Cheering it yes, crowing no? In fact, I'm getting a little worried about where it will go in the next few days at this point. I think we're due for a correction before the next leg up...but that's A OK.

Yes, we must develop a spirit of humility and I believe this silver market will humble many before it's through. The first to be humbled though, will be Martin Amrstrong and Merril Lynch!

D.A.
Second article in top left corner of home page entitled " How the Future Markets Function"
A key sentence is "Metal loans, leasing and forward contracts never stopped the rallies in 1980 and indeed without them there can be no rally in the first place."
In 1980 there were no dirt cheap bank loans etc. This was a brain child of Peter Munk after he acquired the Barrick property at "Dirt" cheap prices.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 27.15

Highrise: I believe someone here is interpreting Anothers comments....
I believe he said something like"LBMA and ABX are of the same kind"

Delphi -
WB buying puts, not writing them, that's the point, he buying some protection. I think he might hold onto his silver awhile.

Myrmidon -
Threw out all the charts a week ago. This is an emotional market, fundamentals or technicals play no part in what we saw this week.

DA -
You have been a calm head and a wealth of good info, thanks.

XAU/Spot Ratio = .254

Gold/Silver Ratio = 39.28

I have the market valuing Sunshine Mining as if silver were still $3.42 per ounce. By my reckoning, the stock price should be more like $3.16 per share ( with silver bidding $7.61 ) . By the way, the TA I did was not the only factor in my decision to buy today. The improvement in their fundamentals, including reduction in their cash-cost per ounce figured strongly in there too.

Tzadeak, ABX apparently has committed almost 90% ( Yes, that's right! ) of its production at prices ranging from $290 to $410.

If gold should break above 400, there is absolutely NO upside to ABX stock!!! ZERO!! NADA!!!NUTHIN!!!

Furthermore, market rumors abound that several large financial institutions committed to buying ABX gold ( @410 ) are about to declare the old bankruptcy, ergo they will be walking away from their commitments.

Finally, Trizec-Hahn and Barrick are interlinked. If Munk experiences troubles in his fairly leveraged property company, then you can be certain he will be dumping Barrick stock before he ever dumps Trizec-Hahn. Based upon recent developmetns, he is clearly prioritizing his property development over his gold holdings.

Read Donald Rumball's "PETER MUNK...THE MAKING OF A MODERN TYCOON" to get better insight into the situation developing at Barrick.

Finally, the N. American companies in the best position to skyrocket with a substantive gold advance are BMG, KGC, TVX, RYO,and yes, probably even that poor old dog PGU ( now PSGQUF...moved up 100% on its first day of trade...most of its current gold production is unhedged. ) .

Tzadeak, ABX apparently has committed almost 90% ( Yes, that's right! ) of its production at prices ranging from $290 to $410.

If gold should break above 400, there is absolutely NO upside to ABX stock!!! ZERO!! NADA!!!NUTHIN!!!

Furthermore, market rumors abound that several large financial institutions committed to buying ABX gold ( @410 ) are about to declare the old bankruptcy, ergo they will be walking away from their commitments.

Finally, Trizec-Hahn and Barrick are interlinked. If Munk experiences troubles in his fairly leveraged property company, then you can be certain he will be dumping Barrick stock before he ever dumps Trizec-Hahn. Based upon recent developmetns, he is clearly prioritizing his property development over his gold holdings.

Read Donald Rumball's "PETER MUNK...THE MAKING OF A MODERN TYCOON" to get better insight into the situation developing at Barrick.

Finally, the N. American companies in the best position to skyrocket with a substantive gold advance are BMG, KGC, TVX, RYO,and yes, probably even that poor old dog PGU ( now PSGQF...moved up 100% on its first day of trade...most of its current gold production is unhedged. ) .

30 day average and today's reading increased by a shade to 0.27%.

margins going up on COMEX silver
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980205/comex_rais_1.html

KOREAN CB BUYing peoples GOLD for currency reserve...not selling?
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980205/ny_preciou_3.html

today 1/8 or 6% ... the second best performer in the XAU after HL...What's wrong ( lif anything ) with ECO??

RJ - Thanks for the answer. If WB really trying to protect his silver with puts, it should be a lot of money, considering quantity. That means, that he seriously consider that the price may decline after the dust goes down, right?

Hey all D.C. stuff aside,I get some really good trading encouragment from you ,ala free trade going both ways,now that is sweet,was looking to do one today on my 290's and 310's but that sucker came down like a lead ballon,guess I'm getting a little greedy could put in a open order,ja thats what I'm going to do,even selling against would have been a nice day trade,anyway keep up the good advise ( I did fine today )

Management troubles are keeping the stock from going anywhere.

Is anyone interested in this?


 -- TOTALS
 Gold 445,043 - 64 troy ounces
 Silver 101,111,197 - 1,910,608 troy ounces
 Copper 102,569 + 483 short tons


CNN reporting that there was a signed deal / agreement between Star and Monica Monday night.

Star is backing out of deal, he has to have something worthy of his being able to back out of the deal.

Best defense is a good offense.
They are going after Star. Dem is sending a letter to Reno asking her to investigate Star.

Everyone is now being investigate

The US government may shutdown over this mess. Constitutional crisis and paralysis not far away.

Executive privilege may be ask for tomorrow. Almost was today.

All of the witnesses are like a broken record - "Total Stonewall"

Watch Gold and the markets tomorrow. Who wants to be exposed over the weekend with all of this stuff going on?

Went to the National Prayer Breakfast - Billy Grahm quoted Yeltsen, ask the Prez not to attack Iraq.

Cliton better stay away from any lightening storms.

HighRise

By the way the public has given everyone a positve rating. The President and Congress even NEWT - CNN

D.A.

He is active today. Just added another article on his site entitled Role of Gold. The conclusion is of interest to all those rooting or otherwise for Clinton. Incidentally CNBC, of all the people, had a piece on options entitled Clinton 1998. These are being offered by some traders, off the floor of course. I cannot see it happening, barring a debacle in Iraq.


Conclusion.

"The illustration of gold's rise in the face of declining confidence in government is endless. The hoarding of gold was so severe during the Great Depression that Roosevelt ended up outlawing the private
ownership of gold and confiscated everything the government could find. Quite a drastic police state tactic. Nevertheless, it did happen here in the United States!

In this brief overview of financial history, one striking common theme arises from the trials and tribulations of man - gold rises NOT as a hedge against mere inflation, but as a hedge against the UNSOUND PRACTICES OF GOVERNMENT and/or POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY. Steady rising inflation DOES NOT act as an underlying support mechanism for gold. Its role within the modern investment strategy is a hedge against political and economic uncertainty. Gold has always risen the MOST when the confidence in the government is at its LOWEST!"

You make it sound as if ABX sold it's all production for ever and ever
every single ounce they wiill ever produce...yah right....If/when Gold
moves to 400, they will be the first to aquire very cheap! cheap! deposits
increase their reserves double even more.... as far as the connection
with LBMA and the "experts" opinion you quoted, I'll just say look at the "experts"SHORTS in Silver,and their anti-silver propaganda but I'm sure LGB has much better and more descriptive and appropriate adjectives
that would properly describe said Silver SHORTS "views".
It is not altogether impossible then, that ABX with it's very large SHORT
position is experiencing the same SHORT experts "views"
Just for the record I do hold some ABX BUT I am very well diversified
believe me, I do take my own advise...."trust but verify"..never put all
you eggs in one basket"....

Yes indeed, another 1.9 million drawdown in Silver stocks today! See Arden's post below.

Another point of interest:

While mostly everybody agree on "deflation", the CRB index representing a bunch ( 17 ) of commodities increased more then 6% since January....very quietly and without too much noise!

Date: Thu Feb 05 1998 17:02
farfel ( @TZADEAK...ANOTHER IS RIGHT THIS TIME...ABX TROUBLES AHEAD??? )

and Date: Thu Feb 05 1998 17:21
TZADEAK* ( @ Farfel...ABX... ) ID#374211:

TrizecHahn to Sell 28,166,026 Shares of Barrick Gold Common

TRIZECHAHN CORP. ( FORMERLY HORSHAM CORP. ) To Sell 28,166,026 Common Shares of Barrick Gold



Jan. 20, 1998, TrizecHahn Corp. ( NYSE:TZH - news ) said it is selling 28,166,026 common shares of Barrick Gold Corp. ( NYSE:ABX - news )
for total consideration of about $516,900,000 ( U.S. ) .

http://biz.yahoo.com/snp/980121/tzh_ldv_m__1.html

ABX did immeasurable "psychological" damage to other gold producers ( and the entire market ) when they sold forward such a huge amount of gold at 410.

If gold bounces above 400 ( which it will ) and if ABX is in a position to acquire other gold producers...good for them! It benefits the entire XAU.

At least the good news is that this time, when gold storms over 400, ABX will NOT be in a position to do damage to the market.

ABX did immeasurable "psychological" damage to other gold producers ( and the entire market ) when they sold forward such a huge amount of gold at 410.

If gold bounces above 400 ( which it will ) and if ABX is in a position to acquire other gold producers...good for them! It benefits the entire XAU.

At least the good news is that this time, when gold storms over 400, ABX will NOT be in a position to do damage to the market.

I would tend to agree that there is a "Tug of War" on the go !

Being polite about it, I call it " Oscillations". It would appear that the resistance is coming out of New York. The "up' side to the gold price has been coming out of London for a number of weeks.

I still think that the oscillations wil wander between US290 and 330 possibly up until JUne. I may be wrong. Why cann't you Yanks get your side of the deal sorted out ?

I'm now back of the job, looking at a 'new" project, re-evaluating anf old gold producing area, 1000 sq Km of ground with numerous old workings.

Should keep me off the streets ?!

ABX

It was my understanding that they had sold forward @ 400 and that gave them some strength in weathering the down turn in Gold.

I have no idea of how much they have committed is it ozs tons or time and how does that relate to their projected production? If you all do let us know. This makes a difference if Gold takes 6 months or 6 years to hit 400.

I expect ABX to return to the same price it was at when Gold was last at 400 about $10 from here I think. If it does that I will be happy, and will possibly sell some of my ABX for a nice profit. If Gold goes to 800 fine I am sure ABX will have that eventuality covered prior to that time.

I expect ABX, NEM, HM, and others, who have a lot of cash because of selling forward, to be buying mines cheap at these prices.

HighRise

I have a position and have followed about 5 years and it is in their annual report that they have the ability to sell at market ( if higher ) should they choose. How they do this I don't know but it is reportedly one of the keys to their success. Munk had the opportunity to buy all of Bell Can's. real estate for $485m and took it therefore the sale of 1/2 of his ABX holdings. I thought it was a move to further diversify but other factors may be in play. Hope rumors re ABX are wrong - please advise if you learn more. Happy hunting!

Trizec Hahn Corp. Assigned BBB- Corporate Credit Rating & Positive Outlook by
S&P

NEW YORK, Jan. 29 /PRNewswire/ -- Standard & Poor's today assigned its triple-'B'-minus corporate credit rating to Trizec Hahn Corp. and
Trizec Hahn Holdings. Standard & Poor's also revised its outlook to positive on Trizec Finance Ltd. The outlook on Trizec Hahn Corp. is positive.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980129/s_p_trizec_1.html



The company has grown rapidly since the 1996 merger ( between
Horsham and Trizec ) , acquiring more than $2 billion of real estate. Further, it has also converted non-real estate investments into cash ( Clark USA
and more recently, its unencumbered share in Barrick Gold Corp [NYSE:ABX - news]. ) for further investment in real estate, which is in line with its
stated strategy of becoming a pure real estate company.

Good post NJ. The PH and EB's of the world, would do well to heed it before their investment strategies go the way of Bill Clinton's credibility.

As to Martin Armstrong, perhaps he'll become independant of Princeton Institute and start publishing his own newsletter a la Steve Puetz. You know... "The coming crash of silver during the February eclipse". He oculs revise it every couple weeks or so, giving variations on the rationale, and explain how silver is on the verge of a collpase to .30 cent level or so.

I don't think this has been posted.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980205/fomc_remov_1.html

Platinum a sleeping giant. Any military conflict could send the metal to the moon along with Midas. Oil will jump to $100 a barrel almost overnight. This is not 1991. Nations will raise againest nations. This war will break the backs of world economies. The stock market is a very dangerous place to be. When the selling ensues you will not get out. Period. This
is why ANOTHER is so concerned. Paper will burn hard and fast along with mining stocks. Buying options and paper on the metals may take years to resolve. In the interim you will suffer great financial losses unless you hold the physical. Yes, indeed the world is changing and when it happens it will be like a thief in the night. Take heed and secure your
future with phyical. ANOTHER is not B.S.ing.

Can 8 digit silver inventory number be far away? maybe tomorrow eh? After that....another move up. Soooo sweet, this silver market. Interesting CRB number too. I've been an advocate against U.S. deflation, and for a resurgence of inflation. This is what will ultimately end up helping drive Gold higher, a total collapse is not in the cards.

What do you think about my idea of Martin Armstrong collaborating with Steve Puetz in the newsletter biz? Martin could talk weekly about silver's immimnent collapse to .30 cents, and Puetz could stick by his theory of total economic / stock market collapse. Since the markets now move in tandem ( recently ) , this would be a good marriage don't you think?

You must have a wee bit of "Chinese" in you ?

ANOTHER: THANKS FOR YOUR POSTS YESTERDAY.
You said to buy physical, you must have been reading my posts ( ahammm ) .


Looking forward to C U back on the 7th, as you promised.
========================================================


Well Kids,
another wild day,
someone in London knew what he was doing.

AS I TOLD YOU AT 280:
it is time to buy physical.

So get on the phone and call BART
and tell him some Space Cadet sent ya.


********

farfel ( 17:14 ) :
400.....just the beginning,
I said over 1000 this year.

=============

Don't know whether this will be useful, but the information that you seek reguarding ABX might be found at : cservice@prars.com. Hope this helps.

Thanks...

Date: Thu Feb 05 1998 10:23
Haggis__A ( playing golf in kalgoorlie................. ) ID#398105:
ZIVA......
CLINTON WOULD NOT HAVE "a problem",
IF HE DID NOT HAVE "A PROBLEM".
HE IS BEING STOOD UP AT THE ALTER....
OR SHOULD I REPHRASE THAT - IS HE BEING SET UP ?!

===================================

I will repeat ONE MORE TIME!
Clinton is doing precisely what he is told to do
by the Trilateral ( Re:Iraq ) .

Zippergate is a diversion !!!
He is not being set up,
WE are being set up !!!

WW3 IS ALREADY HERE,
as I told you last year !!!
Didnt you hear Yeltsin yesterday ?

80% of us will be annihilated very shortly,
no need to order the gas masks from Israel.

Sorry, that was the e-mail address. Here's the web link: http://www.prars.com/

My sister and her husband live in Perth. They have driven across the Nullarbor to Sydney several times. Of course, that is several years ago now.

I see you may have done a little homework on conspiricies but WW3. I think any talk of w3 is the setup. I found an interesting tidbit . e bilderburger group which is said to be one layer inside the trilateral has 115 members - 80 from Europe and the remaining 25 from elsewhere. Guess who is one of these extremely exclusive members. None other than Slick willy's golf buddy Vernon Jordon

at the end they say he has only made "paper profits" up to now! Seems to me like he has just turned some of his stock paper profits into real money.....they just don't get it yet....could be he's blowing the lid sky high on the good old LMBA.
LONDON, Feb 5 ( AFP ) - The markets were electrified and worried
Thursday by US billionaire Warren Buffett's silver buying spree, as
traders pushed the metal's price to a 10-year high and others warned
of high risks.
Silver, which had broken the seven dollar an ounce barrier on
Wednesday for the first time since 1988, soared to an almost 10-year
high of 7.54 dollars an ounce in trading Thursday.
The frenzy was started by revelations Wednesday that Buffett, a
brilliant 67-year-old investor from Omaha, Nebraska, had secretly
accumulated a fifth of the world's yearly output of silver since
July.
When Buffett moves, others come in his wake.
Andy Smith, analyst at Union Bank of Switzerland, said "Mr
Buffett is almost a god in investment terms, so it would be likely
that everyone follows him."
What is unclear is why the enigmatic investor, who has a 10
billion dollar stake in his Berkshire Hathaway investment trust,
made what many analysts consider to be such a risky move.
Buffett is apparently gambling that silver, which lurked at
around 4.50 dollars an ounce when he started buying, will just keep
going up.
But for him to make any meaningful profit on such a big
investment -- 850 million dollars paid for 129.7 million ounces of
silver -- prices will have to rise significantly.
Most analysts agree that he will look for prices of between 7.50
and eight dollars. If that fails, Buffett risks being stuck with a
lot of silver.
"He has an elephant by the tail, he has to sell," Smith said. "I
think it's dangerous."
What Buffett will be hoping for is that so many investors will
follow that he will "create a second or third wave of buying in the
( United ) States," Smith said. "His reputation is so good, he's
creating a buying interest."
However, another analyst warned that traders on the London
silver market were "ferrets following the Warren Buffett rabbit down
the hole".
Doug Upton, analyst at brokerage HSBC James Capel, said: "One
thing that could keep excitement in the market going is that it is
reasonably likely that other major investors are buying silver.
"As and when that information comes out, the market will keep
bubbling along."
But, he added: "It is a very artificial situation and there is a
risk that at some stage it will collapse."
For the silver market, especially the highly secretive London
market, Buffett's raid is the latest in a series of upheavals,
including allegations of price rigging.
The Bank of England and US Commodity Futures Trading Commission
have been investigating the market, where transparency is made
difficult by the London bullion market's practice of not publishing
figures for stockpiles of precious metals.
Last week, a Candadian investor filed a lawsuit accusing Phibro
brokerage in New York of removing stocks to push up prices, an
allegation denied by Phibro.
Highlighting the uncertainty over the outcome of Buffett's
venture, analysts were quick to recall the reckless and disastrous
attempt by the US Hunt brothers in the late 1970s to corner the
silver market.
The price shot up from two dollars an ounce to nearly 50 dollars
when the Hunts borrowed heavily to build up huge stocks. Then the
price crashed in 1980 leaving them with huge debts.
Although analysts did not think Buffett aimed to corner the
market, they warned that his paper profit could yet turn out to be
just that -- paper.
"On paper, Mr Buffett has made a healthy profit," the Financial
Times said. "The trick will be to realise it as he liquidates his
huge long position."

http://www.msnbc.com/news/141621.asp

I've noticed that investors, just like generals often elegently prepare for the previous battle. I think this is the case with SSC investors so market sentiment may keep its price lower than value for a long time.

I was quite heartened to see SSC starting to build a little bit of a base today around $1.50. The $3+ price is still a dream, unless the 9+ million volume the last 2 days means that institutional investors are pumping in some money that they'll keep invested for a few months.

For those of you that live in the Pacific Northwest this Saturday is 50% everything at Value Village locations - a thrift shop of other's junk. And it will be a place to pick up some cheap sterling silver artifacts cutlery and take'm out to the shop and melt'm down for their silver content.

check for $850 million or Andy Smith ? Anyone who has ever read any of Berkshire Hathaway's annual reports knows that Buffet likes to make
very few ( but very large ) investments in major companies ( Coke, Wells Fargo, and so on ) . For him, this was a brilliant move as the $850 million represents only 2% of his portfolio. Even if he took a "hit" of $400 million
on this deal for some crazy reason ( and this is extremely unlikely ) , he would still have 99% of his portfolio.

I do not agree ( nor am I yearning for ) your doomsday scenarios.

I am not a Cassandra ( as you appear to be ) ...simply a pragmatist.

I believe we may see a bond/equities debacle...not APOCALYPSE OR ARMAGEDDON as you seem to predict. Ultimately, it is a shake-up long overdue and will probably produce as many positive results as negative ones. In the aftermath, hopefully, better things will emerge.

I believe equities and bond markets are significantly over-valued...NOT that they are worthless ( or ever will be ) . In a capitalist system, unfortunately, only some 5% of the population control 95% of the wealth. When this balance gets out of whack, larger economic forces sweep in and redress the imbalance. If the stock market made millionaires of us all, then nobody would be left to perform the "dirty work" in this world.

I believe CB's manipulated gold downward for self-serving purposes and it will see much sunnier days...NOT that it will ever replace cash as a means of transaction in some horrific world-wide economic collapse.

In other words, I am not making projections as wildly "insane" as yours...nor do I wish you or anybody else to believe I am.

In 26 minutes.........

While I came home for lunch, and to post the Buffett buying puts story, the CNN crew was at my office, standing on my desk, and interviewing my boss. Since I was at home while they were filming, you will not see my handsome visage etched in cathode rays anytime soon, but I am told they took a long still shot of the spreadsheet I developed to figure profits, margin calls, etc. so I guess that's as close to fame as I will get.

Moneyline with Lou Dobbs is supposed to air in about 30 minutes or 4pm California time. I guess I am finally "outed", but as the largest silver dealer in the country, CNN came to us to get a bead on this whole move. I believe they interviewed my boss Bill Nelles as well as my sales director Mike Maroney. My brother, who is also a broker, told me the cameraman climbed up on my desk to get an "aerial" shot of the trading floor.

The phone has been ringing off the hook. The entire country wants to get in on the silver thingie. Whether its more than the critical mass needed to sustain this rise is yet to be seen, but I'm waiting for a pullback to buy.

Let me know how my spreadsheet looks on TV

RJ..Away.tobuysunglassesformysudenlyfamousspreadsheet

Won't be a total collapse. I think it's hard to define a total collapse. To some it might mean a total collapse or near to it. We live in dangerous times. Too much debt and no money to pay for it all. We U.S.A. and for that matter the world is not prepared. End of story. ANOTHER is not far off from the truth and has probably hit the nail right on the head. But nobody is listening. When the party ends you will not be able to cover yourself.

The question facing silver investors now is whether Febuary 1998 is beginning of a new rea for silver much like August 1982 was for the Dow.

I had only been playing the markets for a couple of years by that time and I clearly remember the disbelief that pervaded the liftoff of the dow ( in what was a parabolic curve implying an iminent crash ) . Many puts retained their value until late September before the bears started to capitulate. At the same time fortunes were made in extremely cheap options of the brokers of the times - most notibly the Merril Lynch October options.

I bring this up because there is a lot of similar thinking among many of the pgm players here, planning to get out on the next 25 cent pop or praying for a 50 cent pull back so they can take out a 25 cent pop too.

This is very understandable given the past history of the silver markets where each quarter was given out very, very sparingly and but for a fleeting moment.

But I am starting to think ( rightly or wrongly ) that the fact that Buffets purchase of 80 million ounces for storage in London resulted in a drawdown of 80 million ounces in comex was signalling the beginning of a new era in silver, long heralded by D.A. ( Who has made a classic call that has enriched many people here, including myself ) .

It would appear that Buffets "drawdown" implies there are not significant stockpiles avaiable in London, otherwise why would he pay the overhead of shipping the stuff from New York to London, face regulatory and legal scrutiny, etc., etc.

Confirmation of this scenario will be continued drawdown of the comex stockpiles by another 40 million ounces over the next few weeks. With roughly 20 trading days left one can expect drawdowns averaging 2 million ounces a day - just like the one we had today.

Confirmation is also provided by the incredible lease rates present. Either London is bare or the owners of silver stockpiles simply do not believe they will get their bullion back. Already one can infer that the stockpile owners ( like Buffet ) believe that silver will rise by at least 25% ( to 9.00 ) over the next year because that is the going yearly rate.

Some of you are critizing Martin Armstrong while patting others on the back with silver. It sort of reminds me of Clinton and the Stock Market. As long as the stock market goes up and people are making money who cares what other events happen.

The only only reason that silver is trading at $7.00 plus right now is because ONE trader came along with so much money that he FORCED the market up! I will admit that silver has good supply and demand and that it was to go up eventually but it would not be there now!!

Last summer DA came out and said as Gold was trading around $329.00 and his firm was going to "Lift there share of gold", in other words buy it. Within days gold was at $340.00. but within a few more days it was back at $329.00 again. Someone asked him about it and he said that this was the first buy signal his computer recieved in a long time and that he used 'wide' stops. So he had a profitable trade and had to of lost money since gold ended up going down every day after that. Looking back the reason for gold's plunge was because central banks sold hundreds of tons of gold during that move. No-one predicted that move either nor did this group as a whole predict that CB's would sell like they did during '97 and that Gold would get crushed to below $300.00

The point I am tring to make is that trading is extremely tough and tring to predicted the random movements of millions of people is increadible, but if you put the effort into it you can do it. But to predict the movements or actions of ONE person is IMPOSSIBLE!!!

Now I am not going to support Armstrong here because his law suit is ridiculous and a folly but he thought that silver would go down and it went up because of one large traders actions. Of what I know of this person he has always been bullish long term.

Simply think about what you are saying and don't get caught up in the BS that's flying around. I am really happy for thous of you who caught this move but just remember just as there is CB selling overhanging the gold market there is now warren over hanging the silver market. He may not sell this year but at some point he will sell and I hope that everyone is able to predict when this one person pulls the trigger and sells 130 million OZ's of silver.

Get real. War could mean soldiers comming home in body bags. What the U.S. really wants is to attack a virtually defenceless 3rd world Country
with a GDP that amounts to 1% of U.S. GDP. A few of the reasons that the U.S. wants to attack Iraq:
( 1 ) Test new weapons.
( 2 ) Scare the sh!t out of the other Arab leaders.
( 3 ) Ensure cheap oil well into the future.
( 4 ) We all know about Clinton's need for a diversion.

After watching that British puppet with Clinton today, I'm glad I'm not British. And they like to consider themselves sportsmen--what bs.

A former Ambassador to Iraq was on cnbc this morn & said that there is absolutely no justification for an attack & asked if 500,000 dead children are'nt enough.

I realize that this is off topic , but am just replying to the 8 or 10 prior posts on Iraq.

QUOTED FROM DELIBERATIONS BOX 182 ADELAIDE ST STATION TORONTO ONT M5C2J1 $225,00?/YEAR"It s intereating to see this most successful of all the hedgers challenging thecentral banks who lend out their gold to enable hedging programs.?
BARRICK HAS 10 MILLION ounces out at $410 which represents an off balance sheet future cash flow of $4.1 billion. ( who has the other side of that, Gents do you really beleive ABX has problems.Up to you to shovel this one.

Would someone kindly direct me to Another's post that is refered to herein. Thank you in advance.

heavy-hitter-----

speaking of crude-oil--------

jan-1999 crude oil call options are $350.00!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://router.minot.com/~bohl/history/option/Crude_Oil

is that the steal of the century, or what?

well...... actually, those oct98 400 gold calls for 3 pts were sweet also......too bad they're now 8pts..........these
suckers have very long legs..........movin on up to the 'big time'--peter gabriel---------yes......time for more of the golden one......options
before friday's close.......dec98 390-400 strike.....mowed a BIG
lawn today.......gonna add 5 more...........life is sweet.......

time for some crude calls.......there are some VERY cheap $25-$27 strike
check-em-out..........look around you.........what is every-where?
chaos and flux......to the n'th degree.......

the farmer's almanac predicts a severe drought this spring and summer.....this same prediction is made by nostradamus....'from
coast ot coast'.........i'll reverse positions on the grains
AFTER they make new contract LOWS....imnshoavfs.........

check-out the commitment of traders ----short-----
commercials in the long bond....the largest in history...smart money...
and those--long---the small traders..their largest ever....dumb money...
now where in the world could those suckers be headed?

a lot has been said about a lot of things........there are those who
would never test their mettle.......life is short.................

step-up to the plate..........hit a home-run for you and your family....
take the first step................

cherokee!;...wading-hip-deep-in-gold,bonds,corn,beans,and--oats--munch, munch......yummy......

Where did you ever see anything that would lead you to believe that ABX is short? Selling 2 years production fwd may turn out to be a shortsighted decision, but it's hardly the same as selling short.

I heard something on BBC this afternoon that February 17 or 19 was the US and British imposed deadline for Iraq to give in. Did any others hear same. Look for Israel to snap and escalate the whole situation. The way everybody seems divided in the situation it could get pretty ugly.

Can someone give me the names of the ten highest capitalization gold stocks in North America.
Thanks In Advance

Where did you ever see anything that would lead you to believe that ABX is short? Selling 2 years production fwd @ 410-20 may turn out to be a shortsighted decision, but it's hardly the same as selling short.

Hope he wiped his footprints offa your blotting paper before he left.

You will see that ABX has about 73 Mill oz in minable reserves of which
6 about 6.7 Mill have been hedged about 10% or 2 years production
at $420.00....

Farfel: when Gold is down it seems that everybody is selling, I believe
the CB's selling Gold stories ( propaganda ) did far more damage....
BTW ABX did have to protect itself ( hedge ) from market forces to survive to fight another day for their shareholders.....BTW the South
African Mines we learned have sold and are selling off all their "Kitty" Gold on the spot market to stay alive, I wonder which of these two options you would prefer if you ran a Gold mine and which is having a greater effect on the cash price of Gold.....

Goose: I blelieve the 28 Mill shares of Trtizec is OOOOLD NEWS....
It wasn't "FOR SALE " but rather "Pre-sold " to I believe insiders, they
all deal with Dom. Sec.....


http://www.barrick.com/pr970205.htm

all the silver doubters is very bullish especially with a lease rate of 75% for one month and 25% for one year. About 200 million ounces left before demand cant be met. Buffet is just a smart investor and must be enjoying the bearishness. I remember the doubters in stks in 1991. Silver is faced with Force Majeure and could go th 20+ an ounce very quickly. When Warren unloads it will have very little depressing effect on price. Just as his massive acquiring caught the paper people by surprise when he announced. Somehow I DONT THINK HE ACQUIRED ALL THAT SILVER TO GIVE 850 million oz COMEX SHORT Versus 200 million available supply worldwide a GRACEFUL EXIT. ANDY SMITH START SWEATING. Just think what happens if investment demand in PHYSICAL SILVER PICKS UP. poof it will be gone then how will the shorts deliver and where goes the price.

King Hussein of Jordan and Hafez Assad of Syria have been quiet during the ongoing sabre rattling.

One ex-US president ( Hoover ?? ) said it best: "The business of America is business". Most people don't care about BC's personal life. But whoa to the SOB who messes with their mutual funds, REITS, etc.

A pragmatic person, regardless of location in the world or chosen point in time, should be prepared for any disruption to: food, water, shelter, security, sanitation, money, etc., caused by any event ( war, famine, earthquake, natural disaster ) . The money component should consist of a "spyder web" of: paper ( stocks, bonds ) , real estate, metals, etc. That mix depends upon one's risk tolerance. Just my honest opinion. But then you all knew that anyway.

ABX's SHARES! short position rose from 10 Mill to 15 Mill..."no typo"

The lease rates we provide are annualized numbers. This morning's 75% 30-day rate really means 6.25% per month. Lease rates are also flucuating in an unprecedented manner. In a normal market they don't move all much during the day. We never bothered setting up the page to display the update time for the same reason that we decided that it wouldn't be necessary to allow enough space for a negative double digit forward rate.

EVERYONE'S EFFORTS to keep the advertising and non-precious metals-related posts off the site are much appreciated. But as we begin to exceed 500 postings a day bandwidth issues are beginning to creep up. We'll be doing something about it within the next few weeks. Full text mode viewing consumes more bandwidth than anything else and so we'll be looking at that first.

TRADING DEPT: Here's a trading strategy one may consider: If you feel the backwardation in the silver market will be over by the end of April, then short the May silver while buying an equal number of July contracts. Or if you feel you missed the boat on the silver move, sell some out of the money put options. The premiums are generous these days. That'll either provide you with some compensation if it turns out that you really did miss it, or give you the opportunity ( force you ) to get back on at a price that's lower than the current one.

Legend Mining is to raise $600,000 dollars ( AUS ) for it`s silver deposit at Elizabeth Hill in Western Australia, it will issue three million 20 cent shares and one million 20 cent options to fund further work on a resource measured at 20,000 tonnes at 3,500 grams per tonne silver.

Starr Eyes Florida Tapes
Meanwhile, Starrs team continued handing out subpoenas. WPEC, a West Palm Beach, Fla., television station said it received a subpoena from the independent counsels office early this afternoon.
 WPEC spokeswoman Martha Griffith said Starr is looking for footage shot last March when Clinton injured his knee in a fall at the home of golfer Greg Norman. Griffith said he wants to look at videotapes of a dark-haired woman stepping out of the presidents limousine shot during the visit.
 Starrs office apparently has reason to believe the woman may be Monica Lewinsky. But that would be news to WPEC, a CBS affiliate.
 Weve been looking at all of the tapes and we dont think that we have it, Griffith said. We havent seen anything yet  but I cant conclusively confirm that.

I do not sit around my place holding an ABX voodoo doll, sticking pins in it.

I believe the company may have problems with some key purchasers...I believe they have limited their upside ( sorry, Crunch, but NO buyers will make a no-limit, market purchase of gold in perpetuity ) Yet, there is very high probability they will overcome their troubles. Certainly, they have significant assets to draw from.

If ABX thrives, God bless them.

However, I do wish that, in the future, ABX will unite in its goals and aims with other major producers and NOT do anything unilaterally that will severely undermine or harm its gold associates. I have espoused regularly that gold producers should act in a more cartel-like fashion analogous to other major commodities. Otherwise, they will never ( as a group ) have any power whatsoever to influence world CB actions.

Moreover, when gold producers are failing right and left, it does not create positive impressions in investors' minds regarding the entire gold sector.

Cherokee, if I might ask, who is your options broker?

Ziva, are you perhaps the female religious leader in the NW part of the US who prophesies global war and who has influenced her congregation to prepare for same?

Mr. Disney, why would Harmony suddenly pass DROOY in price? Just a market fluke?

Warren Buffett, how long are you holding your silver???!!!

OK ZIVA, I am convinced, WWIII is here. As of today I quit from investing. Who cares that gold will go ( as you predict ) to $1000+. You said that 80% of population will be annihilated and with my luck Ill be one of them. Good by my friends, I am leaving to spend whatever money I have left. Better me than some of that remaining 20% who may survive. Better now while I am still alive!

Come on ZIVA, get a grip! ;- )

he is capable of anything.
The majority of the world is against movements in Iraq, except for glove puppet Blair....this is really not looking good.
Israel has been pissing of the Arab world ever since signing a peace agreement by biuilding more settlements with US-Jew money.
Don't scoff at old Boris when he says world war...they still sit on a huge stockpile of weaponery.
Europe will soon be united under the German currency...Italy, France. And China is surely not happy about screw ups in Asia.
US population are being spoonfed propaganda through corporate media and want war and a sleaseball for a leader....Washington PULL YOUR HEAD IN

Propaganda = Spin new twist on an old, old trick.

about ABX & LMBA have me more confused than usual.

223---

hate to post the names of any brokerages.......did so
several days ago.....any-way......e-mail me cherokee@hal-pc.org
and i'll reply......

To whom it may concern
1 ) Clinton is a member of the Bildebergers himself.
2 ) If you check their home page I believe that you can examine the hedging program that ABX has. I believe that the have the option of a certain price hedged or $35 over spot.

All,

Congrats to all of us!

Interested in how the fundementals might change with rising silver prices. Does anyone have any idea about how "elastic" silver is. My guess is that this depends on how much of the market is speculative and how much is industry related.

Although I believe that silver is going to go MUCH higher, info on "elasticity" might give us a clue about when to think about heading for the door.

Would appreciate comments.

Regards to Warren ( Wal' to his mates! ) .

I hope that I did not come off as an angry short. First I am not short and second, perhaps much later than most people I did turn BULLISH at the close last Friday and posted some bullish comments about silver.

I just posted some observations about he markets. By the way I was told once that when they show the trading pits on TV ( CNBC ) the move is over. They showed the COMEX Silver trading pits on CNBC today, several times! I'm not tring to say it is over, just an observation.

As an example they showed the trading pits for the COTTON move a few years ago at the top and the move in gold they show the trading pits again at the end of jan96 as gold was around $420 and they showed the trading pits in gold again on july 7th when gold hit $314.00. Of course that low was broken several months later. TO be fair though CNBC did show COMEX on TV for one reason that day because it was the first day of the new trading floor.

GFD:

Was it you who posted along the same lines about this time yesterday? Been thinking about your points all day especially after seeing the buying panic in London this morning. Silver hit $7.90 before coming off in NY. The news reports said buyers were everywhere. Makes me wonder, Do they know something we don't? Like maybe there just isn't enough of this stuff to go around no matter what the price? Is this the longed-for once in a lifetime event?

GFD:

Was it you who posted along the same lines about this time yesterday? Been thinking about your points all day especially after seeing the buying panic in London this morning. Silver hit $7.90 before coming off in NY. The news reports said buyers were everywhere. Makes me wonder, Do they know something we don't? Like maybe there just isn't enough of this stuff to go around no matter what the price?..... Is this the longed-for once in a lifetime event?

BTW, just what are the lease rates for today? Yesterday they were at 30% but Kitco had them at 5% for today earlier. Also, the backwardation means that supplies are in short supply, as does the LBMA's easing of the 5-day delivery period to 15 days. Just what is the big picture here anyway?

ALL: Thanks to Ziva's warning, it appears that because I live in Los Angeles, I and my family are about to get anihalated by a nuclear bomb or a dusting of Anthrax. Before I go.I want to say goodbye to all oy you - my beloved buddies here at Kitco. It's been great knowing you all. You've enriched my life with your great market calls and all the wonderfully entertaining foodfights. Let it be known that I'm burying my precious 1728 Stradivarius in the backyard in a sealed off PVC pipe. After the Anthrax or the Fallout dissipates I hope one of you comes to find it. Best of luck. Oh... BTW I guess all the paper money I'm making in Silver won't be worth anything but it was fun while it lasted, eh? I'm off - to go find Miro...

Senator seeks block of US branches of Swiss banks over Holocaust assets


WASHINGTON, Feb 5 ( AFP ) - A US senator urged the Federal Reserve
Thursday to block a proposed merger between US branches of two Swiss
banks until questions about assets of Holocaust victims are
answered.
Senator Alphonse D'Amato, chair of the US senate banking
committee, said he sent a letter to Federal Reserve Board chairman
Alan Greenspan requesting that he deny the proposed merger of Swiss
Bank Corporation and the Union Bank of Switzerland.
"The evidence is overwhelming that these banks participated in
an ongoing conspiracy to conceal and prevent the recovery of assets
deposited in their banks by victims of the Nazi regime," D'Amato
said in a letter to Greenspan dated Thursday.
D'Amato said he asked Greenspan not to approve the application
for the proposed merger in the United States until a thorough
investigation of the banks' involvement in the alleged actitivies is
complete.
Recently, shareholders of both banks approved the merger, which
D'Amato said would create the second largest bank in the world.
"Until the victims of the Holocaust get real answers and real
cooperation from the Swiss banks, the United States should not allow
this merger to take place," D'Amato said in a statement.
"The victims have waited fifty years and deserve full
accounting, they shouldn't be stonewalled any longer," the statement
said.
The Senate Banking Committee oversees US financial markets and
foreign bank access to the United States.

do-do doodo-tado-do-do-tado-do

Is there any alloys in sterling silver or is it 99.999 pure?

ANOTHER @ ABX & LBMA, He stated they're one in the same, does this mean that they both trade physical that is not their own or do not have?

Also the hedging of ABX or forward selling of gold was propably forced to some degree by creditors to cover debt of the mining company. They would have to lock in enough proceeds to cover operating expenses plus finance debt. Once gold rises, they can unravel forward postions by buying options back they sold.

As far as the forward selling, wouldn't it go through an exchange and not directly to purchaser?, Meaning they do not know who purchased the options that Barricks wrote or sold, unless there is a seperate market that the big boys play on.

If this is not the way mining company's forward sell, could some one straighten me out, trying to get this whole paper game understood.

Do you know whether this 20,000 tonnes at 3,500 g silver/tonne estimate is the result of an assay of the 103 tonne sample which was due on Wednesday? Is this the total resource, or only Legend's 30% share?

IMF Spokeman "more transparency should actually mean LESS
transparency".....He also was quoted as saying "We are reluctant to make "sensitive" information available"....Wow ! this ought to help
world confidence in paper......

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980205/imf_secrec_1.html

refer: Sterling Silver is not pure, .925

Nice move for the week so far....

U.S. Factory Orders Off
WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Orders received by U.S. factories
recorded their steepest decline in more than five years in
December as aircraft demand faltered but shipments of finished
manufactured goods rose, the government said Thursday. Orders
dropped 2.5 percent to $336.2 billion after a 2.4 percent gain
in November, the Commerce Department said. It was the sharpest
decline since August 1992. Excluding the transportation sector,
however, factory orders increased 1.2 percent in the final month
of 1997 after a decline of 0.6 percent in November. Separately
the Labor Department reports claims for jobless benefits edged
higher in the last week of January.

Layoffs Soar in January
NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Job cuts soared to the highest level in
two years in January, in part because of the economic turmoil in
Asia, a company that tracks layoffs said Thursday. The number
of job cuts announced last month jumped to 72,193, up 24 percent
from December's total of 58,293, and 66 percent higher than
January 1997, the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas
Inc. said. The firm attributes the job cuts in part to the Asian
financial turmoil, but also to increased labor costs, tougher
competition and deregulation. Challenger, Gray said the
telecommunications industry announced the most cuts last month
with 18,077, nearly all of those by AT&T. Computer firms
announced 12,184 job cuts.

And if all that don't gitcha, not to forget the big one ( earthquake ) re:JTF?

refer


Name Purity %
Fine Silver 99.99
Britannia standard 95.83
Sterling standard 92.5
Scotch standard 91.7
Coin Standard ( US 1834-1964 ) 90
1792 US standard 89.24
Latin Monetary Union standard 83.5
Austrian Maria Theresa thala 83.33
UShalf dollar 40
US silver war nickels ( 1942-1945 ) 35


auradataratorade

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980205/rubin_gree_1.html

ANOTHER's transcripts updated:
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/ANOTHER5.html

Silver chart back to 1977.
Are we looking at a 1980 style move.
Or a repeat of 1982 or 1987.
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image202.gif

Farfel, I slightly mis-stated, but they state, "Delivery under these spot deferred contracts ( averaging $405/oz. ) can be deferred at the company option for up to ten years." No way they would put this out in formal report if it were not accurate, lawsuits w/o end. What they do not say is at what price they receive if they defer. I, like you, was nonplused by this feature of their hedging scheem, I know of no other company that claims this capability.

I kind of like Buffetts instincts.

Buyers have the experience of winning and losing that analysts don't have.

Buffett doesn't screw up very often.

Kitco silver ask $7.76.

I think that is still cheap because gold is so low. Production in silver is low because of low gold price and low base metals prices. I think silver price will only drop when other metals prices rise.

Herr Sheller--

Anything to say about the latest rally in silver and the position of the stars and the upcoming full moon? I'm contemplating selling some out of the money silver put options to balance out my close to the money gold call options. Would also like to unload some of my older junk silver on this rally and buy some Maple Leafs. Danke schoen for your response!

Kiwi -- I like that article you posted earlier, but I really have to take exception to a statement contained therein. Buffet doesn't have an elephant by the tail. He IS the elephant!

Thanks!

Gold/Silver Retio just brok 40! Now 39-1! How much lower can this ratio get before we have a corresponding spike up in US dollar gold? If we get $10.00 silver with gold at $298 the ration will have broken 30! Methinks that gold will have to spike higher SOON if this historic relationship has any validity today at all!

Bart, If you break the silver lease rates down to a daily rate, it's only .2%. But it still is up 100 times the rate of 8 months ago. Maybe we'll need to figure on an hourly basis soon.

Glenn, I asked the other day - comments on my silver short position contention? D.A.? ( By the way, great call )

is making all kinds of ridiculous statements...mostly to do with animals I notice, elephants, rabbits and ferrets...most of these guys are just short-arse rats on my books
I do not know why they keeping quoting him in the Reuters press....so much for fair reporting, they ( UBS ) are obviously shorter than a pygmy dwarf.
Same goes for gold also, I suppose his job is on the line with the meger....no bonuses for those guys until the merger either....what a sh!tty job....shorting gold and silver those noble metals on behalf of some slimy banker bossman.

sharefin: There is no way we will have a 1980 type silver rally -- it is too early. Not even a serious whiff of inflation in the CPI! I now have 30% of my cash in precious metal stocks. My only concern is a market correction, or a dollar tank. My guess is that a Middle East skirmish is the most likely next event. Did you see that Monica Lewinsky now has full immunity, and will testify? Her lawyer Ginsburg is first rate at sending up smokescreens to distract the presidential lawyers.

None of this this month, however, I think -- probably March 98 at the earliest.

Boris making a stand seems to have helped market, up 6+%

They can defer delivery for a locked-in price equal to $405. However, should ABX request deferral, then all the leverage rests with the purchaser, not the seller. For example, if ABX defers, how do they even know the purchaser will be in business long past the original promise date? A smart purchaser will demand re-negotiation of the sell forward and insist upon a lower price e.g. $300 an ounce...or not buy the gold at all. If ABX refuses, then purchaser simply walks away, purchases his gold elsewhere at market price, and sues ABX for compensatory and punitive damagaes. Of course, ABX can counter-sue but in the meantime, ABX loses its gold sale ( and possibly even severe damages down the road ) .

In other words, the sell forward is explicit and concrete...deliver gold at $405 subject to ABX postponing delivery. There is no opportunity afforded the company to raise the price whatsoever no matter what market conditions exist for gold.

Kiwi -- I allude nothing in that article to you, what-so-ever.


JTF -- Inflation? what does that have to do with shortages, real or imagined? Silver will continue up as long as a percieved shortage is in the 'cards'. Just like platinum did earlier, and may again. The 'news' will be in its price behavior.

Sounds like you are going to have alot of fun over the next few days. Your decisions to wait for WWIII to come remind me of a patient who was told by a world-famous surgeon that he was going to die of cancer in one month ( true story -- surgeon was J. Engelbert Dunphy ) . So -- what happened was that the doomed fellow would camp out on Dr. Dunphy's front doorstep once a week and say 'hello' when Dr. Dunphy left for work. This went on for years, to Dr. Dunphy's amazement, who never again made a pronouncemnt such as that unfortunate utterance.

How about camping out on our doorstep periodically, and let us know how you both are doing!

Why should this have any major significance other than the fact that rising silver prices make low grade gold/high grade silver mines more profitable.

Each metal has totally different applications and market dynamics:

Central banks have little or no control over silver. Silver is a byproduct of currently low priced metals. Its production is a function of the value of the metals it is mined with. If their price goes up silver supply goes up and the price drops. This silver market has just seen the the impact of its first private central banker Warren Buffett. If he hangs on the price has to keep rising untils people start melting coins and silverware or the price of other metals like copper, sinc, lead and gold rise.

That's just the way it is...if you want to invest in golds that will soar in such a scenario, then look elsewhere.

( see my earlier recommend list )

Joberg up 103 pts. today ( +1.59% ) ! When this index starts cookin' the gold bull will start kickin'! I believe I hear them hoofs already! Gold/Palladium ratio now 1.237 to 1! Used to be 6 to 1! All the more reason for gold to rally from here.

Anyone who innocently believes Andy Smith is an analyst at Union Bank of Switzerland is totally naive, or at least ignorant of what has been coming down for the last 5-6 years. If you seek the truth look for all of UBS PRECIOUS METALS publications during recent years. I am really not at liberty to say more than this.... which their books will someday will reveal... and maybe the investigation should go all the way back to the 1930s.

I'm still wondering what we're missing about Mr. Buffett's investment. Could it be that he's found some info from the research department of one of his big blue chips about a forthcoming new major industrial silver use? Perhaps as a substrate for the platinum thin film catalysts in fuel cells or in a new type automotive battery? Or as a catalyst itself? Water filters for the third world? Maybe a room temperature superconductor alloy?

After all, this is a marked departure from his usual investing habits.

I just read that the Korean CB said today that they are going to buy the gold collected in Korea as part of a plan to help restore foreign currency reserves.

What do you think this means? Will they hold the gold or sell it for dollars? Will they let the Korean banks default on their gold loans if in fact they have?

I didn't post the article because it was just a small part of a large daily news update I receive.

PH in LA: Yes I did make a similar post last night.

Bart has got his lease rate page going properly now. I always hit refresh with any of his pages to make sure that I get the most recent version. He shows 75% 1 month lease rates and 25% month yearly rates.

It is almost impossible to find out what is really going on with the LBMA. The only facts we have are the published spot prices and the published lease rates. The thing to remember about London is that it is focused on physical markets not futures. So the distress we are currently seeing in London implies severe physical shortages. The spot price on the CNBC Europe commodities page has been often 20 cents greater than Barts spot price when New York is open. So there is a kind of backwardization between London and New York implying very high demand for the physical stuff.

As far as the extension of the delivery period to 15 days I suspect the LBMA felt that they "had to do something". Maybe there were fist fights or something... The relief is short term. IMVVHO this is like having the band play while the titanic was going down.

What does this all mean in the "big picture"?? Who exactly knows. But I suspect that words like "default" and "force majeur" are floating around a lot.

Also I suspect the extension was giving people time to "put their affairs in order" as D.A. was implying in his earlier post. That is, it takes time to find the appropriate bankruptcy trustee, prepare press statements, prepare evacuation plans for the directors....

He buys what he understands.

He understands value.

The clue to silvers demise, or ANY commodities demise, when in this state of upward acceleration, will be when the near futures contract price exceeds the cash price. That will signify the end to its backwardization. Watch for that day or hour.

who are the other 3 big positions takers in silver....I say we start a sweepstake ( Bart? ) with an ounce going to the winner...a fair draw for multiple correct entries....more interesting is how they will stagger their announcements to "keep things bubbling along nicely" just like stewing a rabbit really.
My picks are....
George Soros...announces late Feb he has 200 million ounces
IBM ...announces they have secured a quantity for their new chip production facility....mid-March
Mystery buyer has the remainder and a share in most of the mines ( Rothschild ) ......1999.....turn it upside down and its the work of 666.

Bill Gates - He's Warrren's buddy.

Herr KO--

What you say is true, BUT I know some traders who trade this ratio much like a stochastic oscillator--selling gold against silver when the ratio exceeds 80-100 and selling silver against gold when the ratio gets below 30-40! You really owe it to yourself to read Mike Sheller's astrological analysis of the gold/silver ratio some stormy evening. Makes for some fascinating reading!

You can't print it!

You can't burn it!

It can't be counterfeited electronically!

and so on.

Maybe he decided to convert some cash into something real!!

JTF: I respectfully would like to point out that the fundamentals are so vastly different now to either 80 or 87 that it is likely very misleading to think about this rally in either light.

Above all else this rally has zilch to do with inflation - real or percieved. This rally is about a lot of desperate people trying to figgure out where they can find 300 million or os ounces this year.

Based on the pitiful few facts available to me we could see an 80 type scenario unfold in weeks rather than months or we could have a graceful
sweep upwards for the next few years.

Of course, based on published "facts", the graceful scenario merely requires a total ban on any form of silver jewelery....

I think it's probably IBM's finding a way to bond silver to silicon for semiconductors and being far superior to aluminium 30% increase in chip speed, I vaguey remember....does anyone have figures for the aluminium consumption of the semi-conductor manufacturing industry?...it is a pretty good bet this will be mostly substituted for silver when this gets up and running.

Since you will be making changes to this site anyway, please consider reversing the chronological order of the posts. That would allow simply scrolling down to read the posts, a much easier, more natural process, I think.

I haven't posted much be cause I can't add anything useful about PMs, but I lurk often and am very grateful to you and knowledgeable Kitcoite posters for making this site happen. I'll guess there are thousands of unknown regular lurkers who, like me, benefit greatly from your contributions. Thank you all very much.

Gold is great.

-Sam-

PS- I suppose a spell-check function on this editor is out of the question?

...how about GM, Toyota and Soros as the other three. If so GM and Toyota would be racing to put forth a new battery technology and Soros is just in it for the money. IMHO

What is the name of Soros new mining company and where does it trade?

Gates and Buffett are extremely close...according to Forbes, they play cards at least one a month.

Gates is furious with the American government...what better way to piss off the government than by taking a controlling position in a key commodity?

Also, a smart guy like Gates knows that his great wealth is simply a paper number. Why not concretize some of that paper into something tangible like silver ( under the sage guidance of his financial mentor, Buffett ) ?

I would also like to second the recent comments about this site. I have lurked here since last June...reading, absorbing and learning. Thank you everyone who has posted interesting and informative information.

Great site Bart...There are only 3-4 sites I visit frequently throughout the day. Kitco is one of them.

I recall some of the big chip makers working on a way of keeping copper from contaminating chips when they use it instead of aluminum. Maybe with a silver alloy?

How about this unlikely scenerio: They find that molecular silver will react with stratospheric halides- chlorine and fluorine- and equip jets with silver atomizers- just wire feeds into the jet engines- and plan to start wasting it to protect us from CFC's. ( Totally sci fi theory on my part and not based on any real technology I know of. )

like silver or gold or palladium or platimum or rhodium...

The company is Apex Silver ( SIL/Amex ) but Soros doesn't own it, although he has had an interest in it for about 5 years. I think he bought 1MM shares recently when they had their IPO. His share of the company is something like 37%.

vronsky you have been my inspiration--------I want to thank you for inspiring my rebelyyyyyouuuuus attitude, sno---balls thanks for my therapiiiiiiiii farfel---thanks for doing that vishshious work that those of us who are abandoning the status quo rely on soooooo much---boiz and girlz--------After a couple of shots of cactus wine i'm feeling inspired in superbowl city----------60% gold stocks-----8% silver ( that hurts ) ---- 20% physical gold@282-----12% cash US---and two 45 calibers with ammo----for god knows what----I'm getting religuuuuuus---but I refuse to stick my head between my legs.

speculatin' on uses of Warren's War Chest, along with 223:


1 ) WB has figured out that Ag is essential for manufacturing the new ID chip that will be implanted in all Taxpayers by the year 2001.

2 ) Ag recently was discovered to be excellent eliminator of Anthrax spores when inserted in gas-masks. Demand for these gas masks is expected to soar.

3 ) WB knows that with the creation ( some would say miscreation ) of the EMU, there opens a window of opportunity for a private currency, backed by silver, if not actually silver coin. The Silver Buffett coming to a coin dealer near you. Of value all over the world. Novus Order Buffettum.

4 ) Suprisingly enough, the Anti-grav belts rescued from Rothwell were almost 20% silver...Could WBs technocrats have finally put one together.....

The rise in silver has definitely juiced up the price of Berkshire Hathaway stock. Closed today at $53,300. Could have had all you wanted at $47,000 a couple of weeks ago! The news associated with Berkshire stock is all about silver prices the last two days. Even though Berkshire is only 2% invested in silver. Go figure!

It's called Reflexivity Mining & Metals and trades on the Budapest Exchange.;- )

back in Sept. IBM announced they had finally been able to bond silver to silicon, something they have been trying to do for years. As THE best conductor it enables them to shrink the size of the chips as the extremely narrow electron conduits had been reaching physical limitation for aluminium...also it gives higher switching speeds of the gates.
At the time the stock market rallied on IBM's succes but silver did nothing, wierd isn't it....so I'm quite sure that a similar amount of silver will be used in the semi-conductor industry in about a year or two time as they presently use of aluminium....does anybody have an idea of this figure?...or where to find it.

All:

I think that some here are missing the most important point of the Buffet silver purchase and that is that the man made a 2% bet. If the price of silver went to zero then all Berkshire would lose would be 2%. One could make a pretty strong case that 2.50 silver would be pretty solid bottom and that he really only took a 1% bet. I don't know the holdings of Berkshire but as a wild guess lets say that 50% of the fund was in Coke and Gillete. I'll bet you can find lots and lots of days over the last few years where the value of Berkshire dropped more than 2% just because of the holdings in these companies. This is but a small demonstration of the wild imbalance between financial wealth ( stocks + bonds ) and physical assets. A 2% bet by one fund is enough to send an entire commodity market into an appoplectic fit. Imagine if someone got drunk and took a 10% flyer.

The idea that Buffet is just waiting to blow out his silver position and that his inventory is 'hanging' over the market is off base. The man has never made a quick flip investment in his entire life. He certainly isn't about to start now having made the extraordinary gain of around eight tenths of 1% for his fund.

The long term equilibrium price for silver is likely to be somewhere in the current neighborhood based strictly on current commodity consumption, mine supply and scrap. This however, does nothing to help forecast tommorows trading, the top or the retracement that will follow. Silver now lies in a sort of no mans land. On one side you have a lot of happy specs who have made some good gains. Some of these folks have short term visions and some have longer. These are your natural sellers. On the other side are commercial players who actually need to consume the stuff. So far there has been very little news coming out of this group. Their silence is deafening. The final group, which RJ is starting to hear from is the public. Without the public, the silver story would probably play much the way the Palladium story went. Consumers would eventually be forced into the market and the specs would begin to unload their positions. The market would remain in strong backwardation as there never would really be all that much free metal around for loans. A new equilibrium range would be found and the story would mostly be over.

With the public involved, this market is open to more outlandish results. Martin Armstrong believes that it is irresponsable and dangerous to talk about 10$ silver. I'm not so sure that the world would end if silver hit double digits. Looking at the stock market sure leads one to believe that strange outcomes are quite possible. There are lots and lots of examples of people bidding up marginal companies to billion dollar status. At least with silver you know what you're getting.

My gut feel for what its worth is that there will be no meaningful pullbacks until an intermediate ( several month ) high is in place. I am of the belief that there are some companies out there with potentially ruinous exposure to higher silver prices and the market will sniff them out and bury them. The top will coincide with some capitulation from the consumer side, and some acknowledgement of the thesis that the ratio of financial assets to real assets is as stretched as its ever been, and maybe its not such a bad idea to park some wealth in something that's 'outside the system'. This is not a recomendation to establish new long positions at these prices although higher prices are still likely.

Eldorado: I do not disagree that a shortage of silver will be the main driving force in the coming silver 'spike', or what physicists call a 'delta function'. My only point is that we have not shifted as much from equilibrium as we did during the 30's to the 70's -- thus driving silver in a panic bull market well past the positive side of the equilibrium point to over $40/oz in 1980. We are again below the equilibrium price for silver, but not as much as in the 1930-1970 perio.

Do you honestly believe that current silver hoarders would not sell well before this price? I think they would sell, unless near-total world wide panic occurs. This kind of price swing is in our future, when we repeat the full inflationary cycle that culminated in the Hunt brother's corner in 1980. One clue that I am wrong would be that gold retrace the 1970-1980 rally as well -- in the next few months. Very unlikely.

My guess is that silver will peak at over $10/oz but much less than $40/oz. Perhaps someone on kitco can make a more accurate estimate. I am not experienced enough to guess any closer than this.

Gold and silver in the past, except for a part of this century, really were used as MONEY and backed all paper currencies. Why would Buffet and Soros be interested. Probably a new use after these thousands of years. Right! NOT! Tom

What better way could Gates get his hand ( deeper ) in the pockets of the PC makers? There is lots of silver used those babies.

Just say no~~~~~~~~~~~

While I personally do not necessarily agree with it and am planning to act on my own judgement of the markets I completely agree with the caution required in these markets. Things could blow out either way.

My posts have been intended as a warning to people not to underestimate the power behind this market. It is not a little wiggle, jiggle market anymore.

I personally think that futures contracts, in particular, will be very "difficult" ( ie dangerous ) to handle in this market. I am personally using options and sleep very well. Even a floor trader like Glenn could be mousetrapped in an instant.

The longs need to worry about market reaction to Buffet being named in a lawsuit or two. The shorts are beyond worry at this point. They need to change their names and start a new life somewhere.... :- )

Prepare for war. $100 oil is in the cards. There will be no deal. Not this
time. If anyone here believes you will be able to jump into inflation hedges
at the last minute, it won't happen. Stock market is a death trap. Only
a fool would follow down a path that would lead to his or her financial
death. The consumer has seen it's best days. The more I look around
the more I see it coming. Investors have fallen in love with equities. This is why the market refuses to go south. However, the wise ( very wise ) know when to walk away. Time is getting very short and alot of the dumb
money will go up in ashes. See, greed is feeding on it self. Most investors lose money. Nothing has changed. Knowing when to sell is more important than when to buy. The majority of investors will never ever
master this.

You know why their silence is deafening...


'COZ THEY ARE SCARED SSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHH__________TLLLLLLEESSSS!!

Dear Anyone:Since my ISP appears to be havin routing probs t'night,I'm in the dark as to what April GOLD is doin....Can ya clue me in?

Dear Anyone: Do YOU have any predictions on the future direction of Canadian Tire money? ( and do YOU have charts to back up yer predictions? )

As you have so eloquently put...the asset inflation in the stock market can be graphically demonstrated with Mr. Buffet's portfolio...things are so out of whack people just don't want to believe it.
Only worry is what happens when things begin to equilibriate....vortex volatility is just beginning. I think it is safe to say that the US sharemarket is well and truly ripe for the culling by now.
All we can do is stand back and try not to be saddened by the gushing mess of the slaughterhouse...we were warning them back in Oct. Sept. Nov Dec.....but they didn't want to hear it.
The real question is how did it get this far out of whack and was it a helped along in this way....or is itjust pure human folly repeating the sins of the fathers.
greed and fear....still in the greed phase I'm afraid.

Herr DA--

You be onto something mein Herr! Just think what would happen to any hard asset if only 2% of closed end funds like Berkshire were suddenly to shift 2% of their assets into something HARD, PHYSICAL, TANGIBLE, SCARCE and VALUABLE to both industry and central banks--something like GOLD! Mein Gott--THE PRICE WOULD SOOOOOAAAAARRRRR to the heavens! Perhaps Berkshire is signalling a PIVOTAL SHIFT IN MARKET PSYCHOLOGY and will lead other fund managers to go and do likewise! Personally I believe it's gonna' happen and SOON!!

GC J8
Apr. Gold
3003
-4
-0.1
3017
2995
28.3K

To bad about the 'Pack'...eh~~~~~~~

aurator: could direct me to Rothwell? I'm interested! Is that North American Rockwell -- are they Redondo Beach? Or Roswell Park ( I 've forgotten where ) , or that infamous site in the Southwest near the 'little ail-ee-en restaurant'?

Seriously, what do you think ABX did to itself with the gold derivativees at the LBMA? Could they have just sold gold forward at $410/oz, but expect monthly payments instead of a lump sum for each month of gold prodution? If their benefactor defaults before gold gets bakc to 410/oz, that could be embarrassing. Would be hard to sue a bankrupt gold trading house/bank -- or whatever it is. Whoever Another is, he/she sure knows alot about gold, and it is not just from reading Kitco news.

Thankx bro----

you are quoting figures released two years ago

deposit then thouhgt to be 100,000 @0.8%

the split is 30% legend, 70% East coast

aftersinking vertical shaft to 83 meters and driving into orebody

grab and trench samples going as high as 35%.

dont let this phase you lets assume 2% Ag

13 approx 20 meter holes done within orebody.

103 tons bulk test underway about 50% done

because of high native silver content labs being extraordinary carefull

Both stocks suspended after approx 1 hour trade today--pending results

Results may not be FULLY known before close of trade today

ismith@wire.net.au

I believe strongly that ANOTHER is not a chick but a vary refined gentleman.

Now that St Warren of Omaha has at last spoken and sucked in the late bulls and made the suffering shorts cover ( and made Martin Armstrong look even dumber than usual ) whither goest silver? Seeing that it is late in its fifth wave ( third wave up ) from last summer ( duh, six months and more ago ) , and seeing that gold has topped temporarily, it seems only obvious that silver will taper off over the next two weeks. ( The low for gold is scheduled for February 20th. Your personal invatation is in the mail. ) Of course if Barbra Steisand and Hillary Rodham are also into silver bigtime, we could eke out a higher high here near term.

And to all a good night.

While reading yesterday's Globe + Mail I came across an article about name police in quebec ( there is actually a gov'ment agency there that can tell you that the name you named your baby is against the law ) --what a province...eh....probably have a gov'ment agency ta tell ya which direction ta wipe yer ass in too----but what do you expect of a province where for 82% of the people ( ? ) electricity is the SOLE source of heat...
Glad ta see the 'pioneer ( gag ) spirit lives on~~~~~~~~~~~

But commercial silver stocks were almost a billion ounces when the Hunts tried their market corner, and I don't know how much of the USG strategic silver reserve was left, but I think quite a lot! In any case, there was one heck of a lot more silver around then, and silver supply was not constrained as it is at present by 85% being produced as a byproduct of other metal mining operations.

As for the shift away from market equilibrium, the articles over at Vronsky's site by Ted Butler indicate that NO market ( ever ) has gone so far from equilbrium. In essence he is stating that it is IMPOSSIBLE to reach equilibrium, because the short positions are too large ( by a wide margin ) to cover. A good read, if you haven't taken "The 800 lb gorilla ( silver ) " in.

Great name neo fight.

Eversince Nixon took the world off the gold exchange standard,she has been more or less been on a "toilet paper standard".Japan own a lot of "paper" and has threaten to sell them for gold.If this come to pass,it means that we will be back to 1971 again.Of late,actions on silver is a cause for concern.Poor Japonee people has been working for "nothing" .I am still waiting to see a japan that can say "no".The asian currency crisis is manufacture in America.They have been conned by the bankers to borrow in yen and pay in dollars.You see "the printing press" has been tranfered to the bankers.Debts can only grow or they implode

I am new here. Hope you all can help me to understand better..

"Big Trader"....or Alfred E. Newman

.

JTF -- No telling where it might go. I earlier posted that once the near futures contract exceeded the cash price, thus no more backawardization, would you see the hand-writing on the wall. Use that as one key. I would say that in lieu of that happening, and regardless of all othe pricing of it, that the major part of the bull market is still on. Day traders can otherwise play it as they will. I.E., the backwardization is the major key to this market at this time. Therefore, watch out for its demise. I've seen it happen many times.

I agree that putting 2% of BH's money into Precious metals is a smart move.

I agree that Warren will not sell BH position all to soon.

Just think what is going ot happen to the precious metals group when a real panic starts and pensions around the world 'try' to protect them-selves with gold & silver.

I agree with DA's recommendation with the Dec99 Gold Calls. THis is what I'll be investing in.

Heavy Hitter: I sometimes get frustrated because we know so little about Another. His posts are nebulous at times, informative at times, inaccurate at times, but always mysterious. He often oversimplifies as well to make a scary point. But he has not really mislead us with respect to the value of physical gold.

And he has not given up on discussing gold and oil with us, despite the irreverence of some of us on Kitco.

There is 'a different culture' mystique about him -- probably Middle Eastern. One thing is clear -- he is not a 'day' trader!

JTF
With absolutely no proof whatsoever, how about this? What if ABX has not just sold forward its own production, but through some fancy instruments it has also loaned other ( CB? ) gold and sold that forward too? What if all this was guaranteed to produce everyone healthy profits provided the paper chain did not unravel. What if a large swiss bank acted as an intermediary and, along the way, there were certain guarantees made that gave the paper edifice strength. WHat if there were Sovereign Govt guarantees, or Merchant Bank Guarantees of delivery. What if one of these guarantors have been caught short and cannot deliver? There are inherent links between CBs, Merchant Banks & Producers. A break in the chain at one point will produce chaos everywhere.
Did you notice Another's cryptic ( well almost ) answer to my question about Korea CB and gold?

Rosswell, whatever, I have little care for accuracy in some things and did not care to check, but thanks for pointing it out.

paperdolls

I wasn't making light of IBM. And it is developing as a usage whose progress can be measured in ounces per year just like Ballard is using quantifiable platinum for fuel cells and GM is using it for emissions control.

But I still SERIOUSLY wonder, all jopking aside if somebody somewhere may have come up with a totally new technology as radical and totally UNANTICIPATED as Otto's internal combustion engine a hundred years ago or Wright's flyer 90 years ago or the University of Chicago's atomic pile 60 years ago. And if so, what is it and how high can it push silver? All the possibilities I named except for the molecular halide scavenger are ones I have read about 'in progress' somewhere in the world.

WE live in an age of exponentially expanding knowledge. And if somebody gets rich tracking it I want to be the one. I missed the explosion in Ballard stock last year by just a few months and lost out totally, just due to the information time lag. I don't want to lose out on the next one. You can be durned sure I'll follow the IBM lead, but I'll keep track of the other possibilites no matter how crackpot they seem. ( Even the one about putting Ag into gas masks...I have met the guy who first used silver treated charcoal in houshold water filters so that possibility may not be as silly as it was intended ) 'cause I don't know which one is the big one.

Herr Ted--

The pain inflicted by them donkeys from Denver still smarts! Pack misses Desmond Howard and Wayne Simmons at LB. Reggie White is gettin' old and Gilbert Brown can't cut back quick enough to stop a great runner like Davis! But the bottom line is that the Packer's defensive line got tired at the end from gettin their butts kicked by a much more aggressive Denver offensive line! Yet had a chance to win if only Brett could have completed the two passes he blew at the end! Hard to believe we blew 'em out of Lambeau earlier in the season! Just goes to show that any team in the NFL can win any game on any given Sunday! Oh well, if we're gonna' lose it might as well be to a class act like Elway! We'll be back again next year IMHO!

Whew! Thanks, Joe - I thought that something MUST be wrong with those numbers, which are close to a couple orders of magnitude low, from all reports which I have seen.

Please keep us posted when you do hear something. Thanks again!

Singlion -- You've already got it learned. The only question that remains is the 'when'. There are no 'ifs' and 'buts' left.

Re: your previous post and ABX...now you know!

Why does ANOTHER have no credibility. Whats wrong he
doesn't suit your needs or what. Maybe your just in denial.
In this world controlled by man anything is possible. I think
ANOTHER is very knowledgable and a gift to this forum.
You my friend may swallow your words one day. Hands down
I believe he is way above you.

Why does ANOTHER have no credibility. Whats wrong he
doesn't suit your needs or what. Maybe your just in denial.
In this world controlled by man anything is possible. I think
ANOTHER is very knowledgable and a gift to this forum.
You my friend may swallow your words one day. Hands down
I believe he is way above you.

about nukes and oil as was posted earlier in the day by a
Kitkoite ( sp ) ? The story remains the same!

Eldorado: Thanks for your comment about backwardation. I am clearly less experienced in such matters as you, since I have not been through a complete cycle following such indicators. Am I right in assuming that backwardation is where short-term derivatives traders expect a price spike much higher than the longer-term traders? Could this be due in part to the fact that the long-term trades are generally more thinly traded? Or perhaps that the short-term traders are speculators, and the long term traders commercial, or vice versa? Either way, I would guess that backwardation reflects a major imbalance in the perceptions of which way the commodity of interest is expected to go.

Would an inverted-yield curve in the bond market be a good analogy?

( paraphrasing ) When the American public wants oil they wont care
how we ( the CIA ) gets it.

are kept deliberately Low.

Thank you for posting. You are welcome here.
Toilet paper and the promise of more toilet paper?
I think you have a fine understanding.
How soon til Asia tells USA banks where to go?

MR BUTLER It's about 1 1/2 cents per oz per day...That's just the going price of tea in China TODAY!!! If you can pencil this out ... it's very close to the arb London vs NY and the approximate discount for physical .999 non COMEX deliverable Silver. SO WHAT'S THE BIG DEAL???????????

WHY DON'T YOU GO TEST THE WATERS IN THE REAL PHYSICAL PM WORLD!!!!

IT'S ONE THING TO THINK YOU KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON-------AND IT'S SURE VERY

DIFFERENT WHEN YOUR'RE DOING BUSINESS, IN THE TRENCHES, OF THE REAL

PHYSICAL WORLD!!

Take care & Happy Trading...Barb

I have been lurking on this site for about three months now and think that you are all terrific! I have learned a TON of wonderful information from you.

So, I want to return the favor, but need your help. I received the transcript from the Veneroso conference call sponsored by the Mining College, and have tried to cut and paste it here three times. Each time, I got booted off the interenet?

How do I post this to everyone here? ( It's about 30 pages long. )

Thanks, Fergie

Aurator: Thanks -- I guess there are many ways Peter Munk could have gotten ABX in trouble - or for that matter, any gold producer. I would guess that the greedier the parties involved, and the more convulted the scheme, the more likely that it would unravel. We must not assume that only banks such as Barings bank, or UBS in Switzerland are the only entities that might concoct a complex derivatives scheme. Gold producers could have done this too. And -- we know that Peter Munk had a reputation for 'shrewd' complex derivatives deals!

Ever find one of those 'Babel fish'? Let me know if you do -- might find a market for one. If Bill Gates doesn't get there first!

Silver is a very good conductor most all relays and motor starters contact points are of silver cadium. As for as I know, Gold is the best conductor known to man. Earlier analog phone systems switching stations all had relays with gold contacts, to allow better reception over lines. With silver and gold there is little to no problem with electrolysis and oxydation, unlike aluminum and copper.

Once we progress further, I think man kind will figure the other uses for such items as diamonds ( which is an conductor also ) , gold and other rare materials. It is strange how capitalism encouraged new developement of technologies in the begining, now it is the major stumbling block against. Not profitable to sell items that last long and are energy efficient.

The attached article states 'silver is pouring into London' and good silver is not in supply - it's just not in London yet. Also brief mention of Korea and gold.

http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2552758078-c7f

Just a wild,crazy dream. Asian's, tired of bankers from the West,collaberate to establish a currency based on siver and gold. Korea never issues bonds, holds on to it's gold ( per Soros advice ) ,China "revalues" based on gold and siver, Japan sells treasuries and buys gold and joins in the game. All the leased out gold from the CB's is in the East and the BIG Bankers owe the bill like UBS. Crazy right! That's what "ANOTHER" has been saying. Crazy-you better hope so. If not,the West will have massive economic hard times ahead. Like I said, just a dream.I thought ANOTHER was a lune until China showed up. Buffet is in silver for preservation of wealth not return on investment, same for Soros. I hope I'm crazy to think the above. Sweat dreams. Tom

MORON~~~~~~~~~I'll work on tryin ta be mysterious so I can be a LOSER like you+ another BSer.....Where's big trader ( I prefer Mr.Big the rap star but he's dead....oh,what's heavy hitter stand for??

ANOTHER has been a wealth of information for those who are not
up to date on world affairs. Those especially behind closed doors.
However, many here my be too ignorant to take heed. I'm not
one to believe everything I read or hear, but I will sit and listen
to reason. I am happy to know you are not closed minded. We
always have much more to learn and that process will never
cease. He writes with a flair of compassion for his fellow man.

JTF -- Futures typically trade with a 'premium' to the cash price. The premium meaning storage costs, for the most part, between now and 'then'. When backwardization occurs, that means that more investors in the particular commodity want it NOW. Therefore the price rises. It affects futher out futures prices to a lesser extreme. Now, when the near futures price again exceeds the cash price, it means that the NOW buyers are done. It also means that the prices can be expected to fall to some degree in all the futures prices as well. Remember; ALL futures prices, especially the close-up ones are pretty dependent on the cash price. So it would definitely behoove one to pay particular attention to the relationship! Hope that is clear enough. If not, perhaps I can further elaborate.

GFD:
Have been off-line for some time, in part re-reading ANOTHER's posts for which the Kitco file URL was published here in the last time period. He ( ANOTHER ) is very emphatic in that the LBMA will cease to exist. He also calls the Comex a "sideshow" not to be taken seriously. Time to put affairs in order, indeed. Just what does lie ahead? Destruction of the system of trading? According to Ted Butler at the Bold-Eagle ( sic ) site there are very few alternatives left with the derivitives overhanging the market as they do.

I have an idea myself, as to how I can get this transcript to members of this group: e-mail me your e-mail address and I'll upload it to you.

Fergie

GFD I agree with you that trading silver futures in the next few weeks will not be a relaxing experience. Glenn is also right to feel uneasy about the present situation. I keep referring to the huge hedgers' short positions and ask myself: if these guys were killing each other to sell silver at $5, wouldn't you think they they'll be hecstatic now that they can short it at $7 or $8?

yo silver is the element that has the least resistance.

Sorry, I forgot to post my e-mail address: dfergu7477@aol.com. If you want the veneroso conference transcript, give me you e-mail address and I'll e-mail it to you.

Forgive me if this is old news for everyone. Perhaps you've all seen it, and I missed that. Anyway, just let me know.

Fergie

If I'm a loser than I can't imagine what you are and what you stand for.
Chump change ? Maybe that being too nice. To be honest I don't
want to know. I'll tell you one thing you have no class at all MR.

Este -- Tell 'em to go ahead! Shortage is shortage. Even without the current Buffet mania, there is an inherent shotage developing. Price rise was imminent anyway. They want to short into that? Good luck!

Thankx for the compliment bro....

Barbie Doll -

Barb, you are a unmitigated mental imbecile!!!! Your spurious and brown-nosing comments at Kitco are really trite at best. And although I very really am reluctant to copy others rhetoric, I am obliged now to do it, because I could never have ever expressed it more poignantly.

I find it interesting that you would rail against the Kitco minions who displease you. Since your arrival on this forum, you have insulted almost everybody with your stilted, sophomoric prose. You profess to be this big tradin' chick, but you don't even know proper reporting procedures. Your quick fire questions of me a week or two ago, were designed to create the illusion you are a big hitter..and your attempts to draw me out in the hope that I would not know what I was talking about, instead, you looked the fool and were wrong at the top of your voice. Perhaps you have decided to become Kitco Queen. Your snide and hostile remarks will afford you little warmth or welcome hereabouts.

PS

You're pretty good at all those lines between your posts. Must come from all those years filling out your forms. How does your trite, oh so cute sign off go? Oh Yeah..

Take Care

In essence your comments wreak of trite - and your pathetic attempt to detract from real wisdom demonstrates your obvious ignorance - which of itself is pardonable, but your core problem is gross stupidity!!!!!! Forgive me, if my meaning is unclear - ( :- ) )

Allow me to suggest you enhance your investment education by reading Butler AGAIN & AGAIN, and other well educated analysts at this website... until then, spare me AND OTHERS your dribble.

TAKE CARE, BARBIE DOLLIE

Who says you have to be mysterious to be a loser.
I thought I remember something about someone here who put
every cent they had into ECO. Who was that? Can you
remember? ( :^ ) duh?

The CFTC Glossary in Layman's Language explains most all terms and concepts in readable terms, not $5 words. This is the language of the furtures and commodities Industry.

Enjoy:

www.cftc.gov/glossary.html

Take care...Barb

Wounded seagull flyin yer way from Cape Breton~~~~~~

Neophyte -- That being the case, it'll quickly show up in the cash price. Therefore, watch for backwardization to become nil. Otherwise, it is just another story. As usual, you will KNOW the REAL news in the price!

Eldorado: I think I got some of that -- current futures price must be cash price, since everyone knows what it is. But if the buyers can't wait to invest, the short term premium rises without affecting the longer term one. So -- I guess this allows one to estimate just how bullish the sentiment is among the futures buyers. Thanks for your insight!

Heavy Hitter: I agree 100% with your 22:34 post. The real losers are the ones that ignore information given to them, and fail to log it for future reference. None of us should make key decisions based on the words of any one person, and should integrate the information from many different sources - the more disparate the better.

That is what the 'NewPhysics' or 'NewScience' or 'New????' is all about -- those of us who can integrate small bits of data from many apparently unrelated sources will be the winners in the information explosion that is in our midst.

This information revolution we are in is as significant a revolution as the Renaissance, or the Industrial Revolution of the past. And -- just as traumatic.

the better the conductivity.

Eldorado, I am really troubled that the Commercials are short to the ratio of 5:1. These are the guys who KNOW the market and they are not on the BUY side. Can anybody explain this to me?

Sorry, I forgot to post my e-mail address: dfergu7477@aol.com. If you want the veneroso conference transcript, give me you e-mail address and I'll e-mail it to you.

Forgive me if this is old news for everyone. Perhaps you've all seen it, and I missed that. Anyway, just let me know.

Fergie

Sorry Mr. Vronsky but that title has already been reserved for the famous ZIVA and SHLOMO ... Maybe Barb can have another title but not Kitco Queen. You wouldn't want WW3 to start just because you didn't give credit where credit was due would you? :- )

TTFN

My comment about puting every CENT I had into ECO was said with tongue firmly in cheek ( DUH ) ...and by-the-way I've posTED my porfolio about thirty times on this forum ( again duh ) ...I'm laughing so hard I can barely type ( good excuse ..eh ) ...That was SARCASM ( the eco remark ) --sometimes I can't believe what I read here....good luck ( you + "heavy sure as ( shoot ) need it....g'nite all!

Alright team Kitco, here we are in the fourth quarter, our team is down but we are in scoring position. I can feel the victory in the air, we are moving the ball downfield at will. We have MOMENTUM! A few of you are starting to fray from the intensity of anticipation, I want your heads back in the game.

We stick to fundamentals and keep moving like the well oiled machine that got us here in scoring position in the first place. Warren Buffet just broke free for a big gain. Greenspan on their team is showing weakness by printing like crazy. Victory is in the air.

Hut 1, hut 2, hut, hut, hike..............

Este -- One more; Perhaps they are ecstatic to be COVERING those shorts at 7 bucks, vs. higher numbers that may be coming along! Just watch the numbers. When the near futures finally exceed the cash, know the run is probably over for the short term. I just cannot imagine it is over until that day arrives.

Goodnight all.

WHEN IS GOLD GOING TO BE MY FRIEND???

I especially loved the "duh' at the end of your post!!! Again,mucho thankx for lightening my mood ( hahahahaha ) ....I now go to sleep with a huge grin on my stupid face.....GO ECO~~~~~~~~~~~

What if Buffett has decided it's time to respond to the unsolvable
Y2K problem? I don't think buying silver is his preferred form of
entertainment. So when does the wise investor trade his paper in for
precious metals? June 98? December 98? June 99? December 99?
Maybe it's time to play "Follow The Leader".

Veneroso says in Fergie's conference report that he expects 10-Baggers in the Jr. gold companies and $400-$450 gold in one to two years because they are both so depressed! In fact he says that 10 baggers "will be quite common."! Methinks it be time to load up the wagon with well managed Jr. mining stocks that refuse to hedge their futures in a depressed market! Danke, Fergie!

I'm glad your laughin. So am I.

What is your honest take on Anothers wisdom. Do you disagree with
him somewhat or how much of it is truth. You seem to have a great mind and appear to be knowledgable judging from of your posts.

FRIDAY FEBRUARY 6 1998

Many critics of the European Union's economic and monetary union consider
fiscal policy to be its Achilles heel. Some argue that combining a centralised monetary policy with a decentralised fiscal policy is simply unworkable. That is wrong. But the task will be tricky.

There are three chief areas of debate: first, whether bigger internal transfers will be needed to deal with country-specific shocks; second, whether the Emu zone can generate a sensible overall fiscal stance; and third, how far controls on the fiscal policies of member states can eliminate the interest-rate costs induced by the fear of public sector bankruptcies.
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/v84302.htm

At a boy!

At a boy!

At a boy! Go Hecla Mining!

February 5, 1998
Indonesia eyes 10 percent unemployment by end-98

JAKARTA, Feb 6 ( Reuters ) - The Indonesian government has estimated that about 10 percent of its workforce of 90 million people will be unemployed by the end of the year, the Jakarta Post reported on Friday.

The newspaper quoted Manpower Minister Abdul Latief as saying that current unemployed totalled 4.5 million. Between one million and 1.5 million people will be laid off this year because of the economic crisis, he said.

The 2.7 million new job seekers this year are also unlikely to find employment because of the steep drop in economic activity, he said. "This year's unemployment crisis has been very shocking," Latief was quoted as saying.

However, the Post said the government's figures could be understated and quoted the Federation of All Indonesian Workers Union as saying unemployment could reach 13 million by the end of the year.

It said also that some 40 percent of the workforce was under-employed. There are fears that mass layoffs and rising prices of essentials resulting from the economic crisis could trigger widespread unrest in Indonesia.

fergie_a
If you email it to me I can post it for you.

JTF
I don't have a clue where silver will end up.
But enjoy the comments raised by the question.
Likewise with Another's comments.

FOCUS-NYSE approves plan to widen circuit breakers
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980205/nyse_circu_3.html
NEW YORK, Feb 5 ( Reuters ) - The New York Stock Exchange on Thursday approved a plan to widen circuit breaker trading halts, suggesting that halts be triggered by declines of 10, 20 and 30 percent in the Dow Jones industrial average.

Under the proposed changes, which require approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission, trading would not stop until the Dow falls at least 10 percent, or about 800 points at current levels. Under current circuit breaker rules, trading is halted after 350 and 550-point declines in the index.

The proposed changes would still cause the stock market to close early if the Dow falls 20 percent -- 1,600 points at today's prices -- after 2 p.m. EST ( 1900 GMT ) or if it drops 30 percent at any point in the day, the NYSE said in a statement released after its monthly meeting.

``I greet it warmly,'' Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany, said. ``I have been saying for a number of years that based on the rise in stock prices, circuit breakers needed to be changed so they did not kick in with such regularity.''

Many market players and regulators have called for the trading halts to be widened to declines of 10 percent and 20 percent in the Dow after the circuit breakers were tripped for the first time ever in October last year.

At present levels, a 30 percent decline would mean a 2,400-point drop. Threshold points would be adjusted quarterly.

``We are very encouraged by the proposal as it appears to meet many of the concerns expressed by ( SEC ) Chairman ( Arthur ) Levitt,'' SEC spokesman Chris Ullman said. ``We expect to receive the written proposal within a week after which it will be put out for public comment prior to formal consideration.''

Under the proposed changes, a 10 percent decline in the Dow before 2 p.m. EST ( 1900 GMT ) will shut the market for one hour and a 10 percent drop between 2 p.m. EST and 2:30 p.m. EST ( 1930 GMT ) will shut the market for 30 minutes. If the Dow falls 10 percent after 2:30 p.m. EST ( 1930 GMT ) , the market will remain open.

A 20 percent drop in the Dow before 1 p.m. EST ( 1800 GMT ) would shut the market for two hours and a 20 percent decline between 1 p.m. EST ( 1800 GMT ) and 2 p.m. EST ( 1900 GMT ) would close the market for an hour.

``This proposal is a consensus of opinions voiced by the Exchange's broad range of constituents, as well as views voiced during the past several months of discussions with regulatory agencies and other markets,'' NYSE Chairman Richard Grasso said.

The plan does not change so-called sidecar curbs, which are triggered when the Standard & Poor's 500 futures contract drops 12 points. When that happens, all program trading market orders for NYSE-listed S&P 500 stocks are set aside for five minutes.

It also does not change an index arbitrage restriction, which limits that type of program trading when the Dow rises or falls 50 points above or below its close from the previous trading day, the exchange said.

The halts were first proposed by the Brady Commission after the 1987 stock market crash. At the time, the curbs were put at 250 points and 400 points, but were widened to 350 points and 550 points early in 1997.

It look like Asian's contagion is subsiding.Now it seems like Silver is taking over. Shortees who have been enjoying for the past 15 years have turned out to be crying babies.They are laterally wailing.Hope our free market will be intact.Looking at the sight of the Hunt brothers taking their oaths and saying ".....so help me God"make me wonder whether the present will be the same. There is a difference this time.Those silver are paid in full and delivered.If it so,this is actions most foul!If silver survives and gold explode upward,those manupulators will have tomatoes on their faces.Come April Euro and the question on gold will be brought to attention.Look like 1998 will be a very interesting year.The chinese has a proverb-"May you live in interesting time" I rather not! I am a Singaporean living in a"Malay world" like Israel.

ON NIGHTLINE a report that Clinton ask Betty Curry to tell a lie to Grand
Jury

Ted has alot of regrets and I think his ego is bigger than him.
Unfortuately for him a poor loser. Many rough edges there.
He needs alot of rest.

I just completed the entire list of you're posts, and I would like to know , did more than one person write for you? Writing is like finger prints, and I see more than one set.

Bart, thanks for the great site, and I understand your concern over advertisements on your site.

Barbie Dolly --

"DIFFERENT WHEN YOUR'RE DOING BUSINESS, IN THE TRENCHES, OF THE REAL WORLD...."

--- like you would know {:- ) ) !

Take care, Barbie Dollie.... take grade-school remedial English!!!!

It is not if but when will Clinton resign.

The Market will be down big time at open

South China Morning Post: Friday, Feb 6, 1998
The United States and Britain yesterday called for meetings of international leaders in a bid to agree on a solution to the Asian economic crisis. Full Story

HKMA proposals on table for fine-tuning dollar peg system
A wide-ranging review of potential improvements to the currency board system has been conducted by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority ( HKMA ) in
the face of mounting pressure on the pegged exchange rate.

Legal action on the increase as more companies face liquidity problems
An increasing number of writs are being launched by creditors, and the level is expected to stay high as experts predict more firms will suffer financial difficulties or bankruptcy.

Silver hits fresh peak as $8 looms
Silver prices soared to a 9.5-year high yesterday, as the market continued to digest revelations that United States billionaire Warren Buffett had bought close to 20 per cent of annual estimated worldwide
silver supply. ( If I have to listen to one more round-eyed reporter chatter about Buffet selling, I'll go quite mad... )
http://www.scmp.com/news/business/topbiz.idc

GFD ( to JTF @ 21:18 )

in which you say, "Above all else this rally has zilch to do with inflation - real or percieved. This rally is about a lot of desperate people trying to figgure out where they can find 300 million or os ounces this year."

Let's not be too sure. Allow me to point out that inflation perceived as higher prices comes directly from an increase in the money supply. There has been huge growth in money supply for years. Much of it has gone into the stock market. But with wall street tottering that money would in part flow into the economy. In addition, massive amounts of money is being created to supply the IMF, the Japanese are inflating their economy with daily infusions, etc.

ANOTHER has said that a gigantic increase in the price of oil would result from any rise in the price of gold and that "the world as we know it has already changed". It brings to mind a statement by James Dines recently ( within the past months ) that he doesn't discount the possibility of a return of inflation caused by an oil shock or some kind of disruption in the oil markets.

In other words, maybe we are seeing the first stirrings of a coming inflation indicator in the silver market. Smart investors ( like Buffet ) not only presage the markets, they actually influence them, as we are seeing. This may be the first unravelling of events right here. A saying has stuck in my mind for years. "Money talks, but silver screams." Just what is it screaming now?

Neophyte: re: your 22:29
That press release was just what you should expect from them. What else would they say. "Yeah, we are experiencing a temporary shortage...go ahead and take advantage of it and bid up the prices." Don't think so.

just say no~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~...

Makes sense to me!

D.A. @21:35: That post is but another confirmation that you are able to pack more market savvy into a single idea than most folks are able to accomplish in a book. I appreciate your thoughts very much.