Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:02 - ID#317189)
Speculative Investment Strategy Solicited
Having "lurked" at this site for several months now, allow me to commend Kitco participants on their generally high levels of intelligence, market saavy,and of course, their allegiance to that historical fortune-maker, Gold. Anyway, on to business:

In a positively Dickensian twist of fate, my wife has fallen heir to a modest amount of money. We managed a fast 10% gain on capital through a recent 3-week excurision in the Fidelity Precious Metals Mutual Fund, and this has whetted our appetities for the type of gains possible with a more leveraged position. A vague notion of the risk-reward principle compels us to seek experienced counsel on such matters. Our assumptions about the US equities market and the yellow metal:

1 ) Gold bullion will make a subsantial drop beneath the $300 level before finding its legs for a jolly run-up.

2 ) The DJIA may add on as many as 500 points before serious selling begins during the ides of March.

Our questions:

1. What sort of positions could we assume to play these "hunches" on the US commodity markets? ( Selling the DJIA and buying Gold Bullion )

2. What sort of investment outlays and reserve accounts would be required? Which exchanges and instruments?

3. If we were to purchase ( or sell ) future contracts, could small-timers like my wife and I augment our positions by "writing" options? How would this be handled?

If these questions smack of a certain naivete, forgive us. I have tried on three ocassions to short the industrials using SPX put options and failed absolutely each time, so I welcome seasoned, intelligent advice. On a brighter side, I have consistently made money buying gold and derivatives. Still, the perverse desire to benefit from a downward swing in the DJIA persists. Feel free to post your advice or E-mail me directly at I thank you in advance.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:04 - ID#372344)
@ Indonesia down 9% on Rubin's "caution" on new currency peg.....

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:05 - ID#28585)
Dear America:

Dammit, I just can't wait until tens of thousands of American boys are dead and dying on the sands of
Iraq...squirming and squealing in pain, their lungs filled with deadly nerve gas. I look forward to it.

And to think you're gonna do all this for me!! Yup, I really am the greatest thing in the world. Americans
kiss my ass...I'm holier than Jesus Christ! KISS MY ASS, YOU STUPID BRAINWASHED

Hey, I've already destroyed your oceans. You see all those miserable seals and dolphins lying dead on your
beaches. That's my work, and I'm damn proud of it! Let them gag on my grimy, greasy essence. Screw
'em...they're just f__king animals anyway.

Hey, I've alreadly poisoned your air too. Cancers...tumors...I give them to you pissant Americans in
spades...and I love it. You spend all your money on drugs and doctors... and still you worship my divine

Hey, I love the way I've duped you dummies into thinking that when you fight for me, you're fighting for
freedom and all that other rot. You're my slaves and you don't even know it. You may think you're
fighting for freedom...but you're fighting for the eternal right to stick me in your
cars...and it'll be a cold day in hell before I ever let that damn solar power or bastard electricity take me
outta the picture!!!

Hey, you're all a bunch of whores to the Arab cartel...thank me for that!! I own your ass, you American
dimwits. You also should get down on your knees and pay homage to my know, Chevron,
Exxon, Mobil, Shell, Texaco. I get a real kick outta the way they rake you over the coals whenever the hell
they feel like it! You deserve it 'coz you're all too stupid to rise up and protest!!

Thanks again,

Your buddy,


neo fight
(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:06 - ID#390179)
Regardless of whether he knows the way there, that is where he will end up.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:07 - ID#31868)
It has been used in various forms. It is a liberty contract which I am certain is constantly updated. I only came across this information within the past little while.

I can tell you this. I really got hot when I found out that a copy of my birth certificate was in a file at an IMF building in Europe. Actually hot is not the word.

Let us see what the next little while brings. Won't be long now.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:07 - ID#335190)
Newsworkers @ Industrialization of Journalism
Current attempts to modernize representation of media history; between 1890 and 1940, perhaps the most eventful and dramatic period in the rise of the USofA press, as it relates to the commodification of news and follows commercial interests.

It was also a time in which the relationship between technology and democracy was defined by "MASS" communication and used to explain progress and freedom in USofA society.

1946: Under Secretary of the Navy, James V. Forrestal, former president of Dillon, Read and Company, which had frequently floated loans for German Cartelists ( 1930' )

At one of his first briefing conferences Forrestal summoned before him some twenty-four ( 24 ) of the country's most important publishers and editors, and told them that "no peaceful solution of the Russian problem was possible" ( 1946 ) and had Generals Marshall and Bradley give them the reasons.

Such conferences, as well as those with working reporters, became an institution until the press lost what little independence it had had, becoming a government-coordinated instrument of Wall Street's national policy.

Thenceforth the handouts and briefings of government officials were palmed off as objective reporting while reporters and editors largely surrendered the right of criticism and independent inquiry.

Thus any brain-child of a McCarthy or a Dulles, went unchallenged in the press as long as it seemed to serve the cold war.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:09 - ID#372344)
@ US Defence Sec. Cohen in Russia for "SECURITY" talks....

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:10 - ID#25867)
For grampa, Ted, & Ziva
To grampa: I was looking for a full page explanation of the reason NY silver is discounted to London. I don't have the time to write something myself and thought maybe someone else would be interested.

Ted - Since you have the french on your cereal boxes anyway, you might as learn it properly. Mois = month; me = moi.

ziva, about the URLs you post: If the sole purpose of your presence here is to throw URLs in front of the readers then you shouldn't be here. You've seen the requests to have your posting privelidges revoked. I think that you'd leave voluntarily if you could no longer post any URLs. What do you think?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:10 - ID#227238)
Mozel: Out of curiosity; where are those immunities of which you speak? Unless we quibble over definitions, we are immune to absolutely nothing in the quasi legal, political sphere. IMO. ...... certainly not from governmental predation. In that regard, we are but animals in cage. ...Per 6 pak: "Be quiet, consume and die."

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:11 - ID#373403)
I guess the IMF payments did not fix the problem. Maybe we should keep giving them more money. What do you think?

John Disney__A
(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:12 - ID#24135)
Waiting for the Revolution...
To all
Some news flashes..
-Mallinckrodt to buy local Company Trigate which manages
medical and disposal devices used in hospitals
-Big India trade show.. centering on RSA technology
in energy generation aluminum production, coal and
diamond mining, coal liquefaction, tunnel and bridge
bulding. A representative said that he expected trade
with India to rise from 700 mil$ in 1997 to 3billion
in five years.
-foreign reserves have risen from 1.1 billion a year
ago to 4.4 billion$.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:12 - ID#372344)
@ Iraq....Wenesday's latest news....

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:13 - ID#31868)
Take a look at BEARX, run by Mr. Tice, it is an excellent vehicle to short the market. ( on nasdaq )

My only other input to you is to suggest your buying some physical gold. And a some junk silver coins, just in case of who knows what.

The other items in your post can be far better answered by many here.

Good luck.

Buy some physical gold for sure.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:17 - ID#401460)

John Disney__
Hey! Al right go for it ! Genesis, Back then all were bothers, wish we could go back to the good old days huh? Hugs and Kisses on the cheeks, the days when a bag of Gold meant something.Before they found Oil in Eden. If we were bothers then aren't we still brothers?

Who was the Jewish leader who said  Leave it up to the Jews to settle in the only land in the Mid East that does not have Oil!.

TZADEAK* you should continue:
Genesis 3:23 So the Lord God banished him from the Garden of Eden to work the ground from which he had been taken. After He drove the man out,.....

Now man is trying to go back to Eden, reaching out his hand for that tree again.

Got to have that Caspian Sea Oil. Isnt that where everyone is headed. They just cant figure out how to get it out. China and Russia have a head start, they have established trade agreements with the locals. The Old Silk Road development project most likely.

John Disney__
Hey! Al right go for it ! Back then they were bothers, wish we could go back to the good old days huh? Hugs and Kisses on the cheeks, the days when a bag of Gold meant something.
Before they found Oil in Eden. Who was the Jewish leader who said  Leave it up to the Jews to settle in the only land in the Mid East that does not have Oil!.

Yes, This is a Gold site, interesting that if one wants to obtain some pertinent information on the history and cyclical nature of Gold, the Bible and I imagine the Koran, offer a great glimpse into mans trials and tribulations and the part Gold has played.

Man repeats the mistakes of the past; because, he lacks the knowledge of what has happened in the past and does not even have a clue as to why they happened.

Gold will again be recognized as the true unbiased currency of man, just as it has since man first discovered it.

I would suggest; however, that passionate religious statements of little historic relevance to Gold should be avoided. There are other sites more appropriate for pure religious discussions.


(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:19 - ID#31868)
John Disney_A
I am sorry to hear that peace is breaking out again in RSA. I just don't know how you can stand it.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:21 - ID#401460)
John Disney__A

Sorry for the double paragraph in last post. I will try to proof better in the future.


The Hatt
(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:24 - ID#294232)
Sea of Red in Asia!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
How will the puppets of CNBC explain this when over the last week they have been celebrating the END TO THE CRISIS IN ASIA! Do you think that enough paper has moved from strong hands to weak? Will it be time to let the air out of the balloon?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:28 - ID#31868)
The Hatt
They will think of something. I just looked at it, sure does look red over there.

Night all.

neo fight
(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:29 - ID#390179)

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:30 - ID#227238)
John Disney: Your thumbnail sketch of SA's fortunes, rising trade and exchange reserves, have all the earmarks of a land firmly on the road to hell. Eh? ... I know it to be true. I read it in the US press.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:31 - ID#339212)
@ Hatt

They will call it a "glitch"

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:32 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother John,

My camel, the one that you shipped me some
time ago, started to complain that he
is getting a cold because of the rainy
whether and chilly air of Corunna.

Also camel drinks a lot of beer and then talks
to me about desert and Ziva. Ziva got him too...

Otherwise, thanks a lot, I really like this pet..

The Hatt
(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:37 - ID#294232)
A rich man in the year two thousand will be a man with NO-DEBT!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:42 - ID#238422)
Russian Platinum Coins
For collectors: I recall that in early 80's U.S.S.R.
issued a certain quantity of 150 Rubles ( ? ) Pure Platinum
Coins. These coins were sold mostly to foreigners. Anybody
got those coins?

neo fight
(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:43 - ID#390179)
the hatt
According to US bankruptcy law no debt prison---except for tax debt.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:44 - ID#266105)

Per 6 pak: "Be quiet, consume and die."

Booboosie: doom with a loo.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:47 - ID#339212)
@ Hatt

One hypothetical question:

60% percent of Americans ( and about the same in Europe ? ) make payments for their homes. In an event of a severe economic crisis, if they can't afford the home payments, what happens? They lose the homes? Where do they live then?

Personally, I think that the government will step-in and protect the needy ( mass benefit ) . Will the banks reposess? What will the banks do with 50 mil. homes? How can they sell them with people living in the homes who can not make payments. Ugly scenario!

Your views, or anyone else's views?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:48 - ID#372344)
@ Highrise....Control and Price of Oil.....
Interesting you should mention Caspean Sea Oil, alot of movements
in the area and strange bedfellows....Turkey and Israel sign military
deals....Russia and China backing Iraq....Btw did you notice my post
on Iraq, they were unable to meet Oil exports of $US5.2 Bill so their currency fell 7%....I am of the view that the "West" wants physical
control of all Oil.....I heard something really bizzar today, some military
analyst was suggesting that the US should back, get this, IRAN, and
have them start a war with Iraq, so as to "get" Hussein....too much
for me...... I wonder if that Russian plane load o f "humanitarian " aid carried any surface to air missles.....

neo fight
(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:54 - ID#390179)
In the 30's the vast majority of individuals with property lost it due
to the inability to pay PROPERTY TAXES not mortgages. Today governments
have the ultimate control over the banking system and low and behold,
they once again will be the re----possesers.
But of course they neva got all the gold --- did they?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:55 - ID#153102)
Earl ( ) ID#227238:
Mozel: Out of curiosity; where are those immunities of which you speak?
Unless we quibble over definitions, we are immune to absolutely nothing
in the quasi legal, political sphere. IMO. ...... certainly not from
governmental predation. In that regard, we are but animals in cage.
...Per 6 pak: "Be quiet, consume and die."

Earl, I sent you some e-mail. I hope you are not one of those people who thinks that because we have free speech that makes our opinion a matter of law. In law, language is precise. Quibbles matter. Your "privileges and immunities" are in those Public Laws enacted by Congress and in those Session Statutes enacted by your State legislature. Now, if you are saying these are not permanent immunities, that is so. What Congress giveth, Congress can taketh away. At present, you are immune from prosecution for saying "we are but animals in a cage" on the internet. I don't think you are immune from prosecution in Iran for saying that. You are immune from prosecution for buying gold. You are not immune from prosecution if you lie to a federal investigator. Unless Ken Starr writes you out a "grant of immunity". Rights were established on this continent by declaration and secured in Constitutions, not granted. See the "quibbling" distinction ?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:56 - ID#248180)
Oris @ Russian Pl Coins
Thanks for the reminder. 150 Russian Rubles today is approx. $24.00 USD.
Are not PM's a real store of wealth and a guarantee against future uncertainty. I have seen a few in antique shops is St. Petersburg, but have always hesitated to buy, because of customs being so difficult when leaving the country. Although maybe we could have placed them with the anthrax viles up ones ~~~~~.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 00:58 - ID#256254)
SDRer is this the start of something for ING?

Wednesday February 11, 10:01 pm Eastern Time

ING Barings seen hit by Asia crisis, HQ impatience

By George Lerner

NEW YORK, Feb 11 ( Reuters ) - ING Barings fell victim to the double whammy of Asia's financial crisis and impatient corporate bosses as the
company shed about 100 emerging market equity and fixed-income jobs based in the Americas.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:02 - ID#335190)
Earl @ 00:10
Earl be careful using that adage. It upsets people, and they become very angry. Unfortunately, good people get set in their ways, and when you ask them to think about their actions, they can not explain, so they will attack. Embarrassment and/or complicated emotions , I suspect.

You do not have to reference 6pak, the adage belongs to ALL.
Thanks, Take Care.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:03 - ID#339212)
@ neo fight

Today there are 90 mil households in America ( US bureau of statistics ) .
There are 30 mil appartments. This leaves us with 60 mil homes.
60% of these homes are mortgaged ( 36 mil. homes ) .

May be half will be repossessed, say 18 mil homes. What happens to the 18 mil. families which lose these homes? They become homeless?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:05 - ID#153102)
Re Property Taxes and the 1930's. I have advised all Americans on this site more than once that it is unlawful for a "State to make ... any thing but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debt." If you don't have gold and silver coin, you cannot pay lawful State taxes. On the day when a State decides not to participate in the federal reserve "legal, but unlawful" taxation scheme put in place by Social Security and the Buck Act, they will have to make gold and silver coin payment for taxes.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:08 - ID#256254)
SDRer makes you wonder???
Wednesday February 11, 2:22 pm Eastern Time

ING Baring to close Brazil equities operations
SAO PAULO, Feb 11 ( Reuters ) - The local branch of Dutch financial services giant ING Baring ( ING.AS ) said Wednesday it will immediately
close its equities brokerage operations as part of its global restructuring

Wednesday February 11, 1:42 pm Eastern Time

ING Barings to close India, Pakistan equity work

KARACHI, Pakistan, Feb 11 ( Reuters ) - ING Barings ( ING.AS ) plans to close down its equity operations in Pakistan and India shortly, the
bank's country manager said on Wednesday.

``We are going to close down our equity operations in Pakistan and India in the next few days because they are not profitable,'' ING Barings
Pakistan country manager Graham Willis told Reuters.

neo fight
(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:09 - ID#390179)
Well, those that lost their homes in the 30's did walk away--of course that was a much more civilized era. I agree that their will be tremendous upheaval relative to the depression era--for that reason I thank our founding fathers for the right to bear arms, and the bottom line for me is that I will walk away from my mortgage, with much physical gold in hand to start fresh.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:14 - ID#153102)
Lyrics from the 1930's
California is a garden of Eden
A Paradise to live in or see
But, believe it or not,
You won't find it so hot,
if you ain't got the Dough Ray Me.
If you ain't got the Dough Ray Me, boys,
If you ain't got the Dough Ray Me,
Well, you better go back to beautiful Texas,
Oklahoma, Kansas, Georgia, Tennessee.

18 million today would be not out of proportion to that portion of the total on the road in the 1930's.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:16 - ID#339212)
@ neo fight

The 18 mil. households I refer to, have no gold, and probably no arms.

My personal feeling is that the rest of us will bear their burden. Some government "love package" will protect them and will lose nothing. The fit will will be taxed to death to pay for the needy.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:21 - ID#267298)
Off Subject
Sorry, I know this is off subject but can anyone please
point me to a site that contains the Canadian Income
Tax Act ???? TIA

(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:23 - ID#339212)
@ mozel

Of course all kinds of protectionism arises in critical situations. Take for example some European countries. After the WWII they fixed rents for 20 years, and as inflation progressed the "needy" tenants were in fact paying 1/10 of the current going rent!

neo fight
(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:27 - ID#390179)
It is possible---the issue will be privacy
Stay private--physical PM bought over a several months or years via private dealers provides privacy of net worth. A private financial life and a public financial life kept separate will provide the intelligent with the ability to carry on---at least through a 30's like era.
God knows what the future holds--I don't even want to mess with the opinions of individuals such as Ziva or Ed Dames.
But as for the standard rough times go, Darwin is on my side.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:27 - ID#339212)
and now we interrupt our regular programming....

.... to inform you that 11 of the 15 Asia/Pacific stock markets are currently down.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:31 - ID#206358)
JTF,...Only timre will tell...
lastest news from regions:FEB 12 1998

Headline news

Jakarta finalises plans for currency board

JAKARTA -- The Indonesian government yesterday said it was finalising
plans to implement a currency board system to stabilise the rupiah. Finance
Minister Mar'ie Muhammad told Parliament that the government was pushing
ahead with proposals to peg the rupiah to the US dollar, but did not give an
inkling of the likely exchange rate although most sources put it at between
5,000 and 6,000 rupiah. Susan Sim reports from Indonesia. And in Jakarta,
the situation is tense, as security forces clashed with hundreds of people at a
protest against rising food prices. Derwin Pereira reports.


The retail/wholesale jewellery business nearly gone,90% DOWN!Due to the slinding country's economy,inflation rate,jobless,lost in stocks,weak currencies !More peoples tightening their's belts!Save,save save....!
The crimes rates shoot up!We've been living in scary situation!More negative effects will turn up!

Sometimes,felt a bit depressed when looked around the faces of the peoples.Very bad!!

Anyway,life still go on!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:35 - ID#153102)
Those same places "fixed" rents before WWII, too.
It is a popular misconception, evidenced by an earlier quote from the prominent Jane Quinn, that governments can simply speak money into existence. I know that's the way the system appears and the way it appears to work. But, in fact, it is all borrowed. Europe got restarted after WWII with borrowed, actually gifted, American funding via the Marshall Plan and private investment. America got restarted in the 1930's by borrowing on the land and property of the people. The government was actually broke. They balanced the books by calculating the debt against the tax valuations of property. Because property values continued to fall during the 1930's, the government actually had to reorganize itself in bankruptcy again in 1937 or 38. And successively in the years following.

There's just no getting away from the implications and consequences of double entry bookkeeping. It's either that or everyone is overtly working for the government as it was in the Soviet Union.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:36 - ID#266105)
@burma shave signs

The Ides of March
One halcyon day
Remember September
\ In the bear of Gray
Wryed, Sally Ride.


neo fight
(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:36 - ID#390179)
Very enlightening--but Americans are not interested in details, their lawyers take care of those issues. The states have sold out long ago, and don't bother taking your Constitutional arguments to a modern judge, for he is, except very rarely, not interested.

neo fight
(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:44 - ID#390179)
News Flash
The US president has changed policy in order to target Iraq with nuclear weapons---Ziva, please don't respond.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:49 - ID#339212)
Words of wisdom from Don McDonald

Mr Don McDonald in his daily morning financial program ( Bloomberg Radio ) always recommends stocks. When, as is often the case, he is asked from the callers why, he answers:

- Because stocks have always, as long as I remember, gone up.

Then he asks the caller the question:

- Do you think that the economy will be smaller 10 years from now?

The caller says "no"

He finally concludes:

- Then buy stocks, in the long run you can not lose !!

What a pity, I think he doesn't take a good look at SE Asia.

Now you know why the public buys stocks. THEY ALWAYS GO UP.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:52 - ID#153102)
@neo-fight and @Debt Freedom
Lawyers are officers of the court. Clients are their wards.
Judges know the law and uphold it.
If the courts don't work for you, maybe it's because you don't understand the law and the procedures. A lot of it is procedure. It's like driving a car. If you don't know the rules of the road, you're going to have a smash up.

There is 5 trillion of debt and probably 20 trillion of unfunded liabilities. Make some assumption about how much the debt would be increased if certain government guarantees in banking and borrowing had to be honored. Divide that number by the population. Multiply what you get by yourself and your dependants. That's a 14th Amendment citizen's share of the national debt. How many of them will be debt free by 2000 ?

neo fight
(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:53 - ID#390179)
Stocks--they always go up. Fiat currrencys--they always go down.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:55 - ID#267298)
There ain't going to be a single shot fired,
Saddam will capitulate and laugh his Ass
Off at the US of A. The sad part of all this
ridiculousness is that BC will come out
smelling like a rose. IMVHO.

neo fight
(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:55 - ID#390179)
Yo mozel
Maybe you can help me--how do I renounce my 14th amendment citizenship in favor of the sovreign citizenship of my ancenstors?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:55 - ID#401460)

Thanks for the post, EVERYONE is trying to get a piece of this Oil field. And you are right there are all kinds of alliances.

The big fear in the Mid East appears to be the RADICAL Muslims, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and others have a real problem.

Jimmy Rodgers wrote a piece last year about the Saudi Family and Arabia's problem. They have to keep the Oil income coming in or they will loose control. There are not many Sheites, the only problems are that they all live in the Oil fields.

I think I heard on the news this pm that Trent Lott is introducing a bill to discuss the potential War. There is no support for this attack.



(Thu Feb 12 1998 01:57 - ID#206358)
Read one article from chinese's sourse about the exchange problems in china.Do know the official rate,but ,the black market rate is 1 us: 9.30 yuan.From this scene,somethings looks shaky in confidence?!I bet yes!
And even the banks reduced the somesort of interest rate or bonus,if deposit in foreign's currencies.
I 'll check it out and try to translate to more standard grammar.Sorry!Maybe you can find in other english version!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 02:02 - ID#339212)
@ Mozel on debt

The 5 trillion of national debt corresponds to $20,000 min. for every person in America. This is the best case ( ignoring the $20 trillion broader debt ) .

Now, this debt must be related to households instead of every man woman and child. So to each household, corresponds $5 trillion / 90 mil =
$55,500 dollars of debt ( min ) .

Oh I forgot the governments assets of $1.5 bil! but this is small change.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 02:03 - ID#41229)
Heavy Trader
Hey big gold buggy, don't get hasty in your dumping of physical, if you think that paper the way to be, start with liquidating 1/2. I think your getting caught in the ephorea of the market. Notice it is one of emotion and not technical data. We just had the lowest level of housing starts in 10 years, 1st qtr earnings due to come out, they can not be at the level which would warrent record levels. STOP, TAKE A GOOD LOOK AROUND, EVERYTHING IS NOT ROSES, take those rose colored glasses off! Your chasing a market instead of stalking one.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 02:16 - ID#153102)
@neo-fight and @Myrmidon
@Myrmidon $555,555

@neo-fight Post your e-mail. If hanging onto your gold were not part of gold investing, I wouldn't even presume on bandwidth on the topic.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 02:24 - ID#339212)
@ mozel

Wrong, not $555,555 but $55,555.

I have gone over this with Haggis before. Some computers can not handle the amount of zeroes. Exponential notation!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 02:50 - ID#255284)
many thanks for posting on black market exchange rates. Your input is appreciated.

I posted some time ago that I was In Portuguese Timor just before Indonesian annexation. Chinese Businessmen were selling out as fast as possible, at up to 2.5 official rate, they liked Yankee Dollars best of all, but the Aus $ was OK too.


(Thu Feb 12 1998 02:52 - ID#393224)
Louis the lip(sorry--very non-gold)
Guess what folks--we are to be blessed down under with a visit from Louis Farrakhan this week. Big debate about giving him a visa at all-- but the Minister for Immigration fairly acceded with a warning that Australia's laws on racial vilification will be enforced. He should last about 1/2 hour in the country in that case.

I am willing to listen to anyone. I respect freedom of speech. Racial vitriol, however, will not find an audience in this country.

Louis--the shorter your visit--the better!!!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 02:54 - ID#153102)
@Myrmidon $55,555 is correct. Doesn't seem like that much, does it ?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 03:02 - ID#153102)
Politically Correct Places
One of the amazing developments of these recent decades is how political correctness could propagate itself from a few Neo-fascist and Femi-Nazi proponents on certain campuses in the USA to about every corner of the English speaking world in such a short time.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 03:03 - ID#39845)
Jack re 15.09 11/2/98 Vengold
Comnews VEN Sydney 1066/1/1
VEN - ASX Company Announcement
10 February 1998
Part 1/1

HOMEX - Sydney
Becoming a substantial shareholder

BankAmerica Corporation became a substantial shareholder in Vengold
Inc on 01/10/1997 with a relevant interest in the issued ordinary
share capital of 6,572,900 ordinary shares ( 6.96% ) .
ends - AAP
10-02 1301

John Disney__A
(Thu Feb 12 1998 03:03 - ID#24135)
reflections of a cross eyed mouse......
For Myrmidon.
Thats easy... the banks foreclose and RENT the houses
to the people they have dispossed. There's no problem,
Myrmidon - relax .
By the way, does my memory fail me .. Didnt that
article in the worthless Economist mention 490 tons
of gold production from RSA. Thats the number that I
posted but I had no reference. But you posted 590 tons
I think did you not. I think you are right but for
some reason Im to lazy to try to look it up.
Does anybody have any info on this years and last years
RSA gold production. I dont trust local sources. Only
For Brother Oris.
Good news on sheherazade two the lovely camel. Have
her sunglasses arrived yet. Tell her to igore ziva who
is upsetting everybody. Ill send you some tapes of
sunrise muezzin chants... Sheherazade will love that.
Does she sleep at the foot of your bed??
For Mozel ..
A woody Guthrie fan too ... Talking dust bowl blues....

(Thu Feb 12 1998 03:17 - ID#39845)
Sorry Jack shoulda elaborated
ASX announcement. Vengold told the Australian Stock Exchange
that BAC had become a 6.96% shareholder. I only added the bit about Lihir
as I see it as Vengolds jewel in the crown.
While I am at it thanks is due to all posters at Kitco for elevating my consciousness. This world is leveraged so hard the lever is going to break before this world does.
Ted buddy, dont mainline heroin, ingest as many blotters of Lihry
as you can, I havent hit a bad trip yet. Chippies bro.

Paths will cross, will cross again. Oh my valentine, you have not
left my mind and heart for twenty years. I just went and screwed
up. Time is ripe and I can feel you in the air JW. Viva la BRA.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 03:24 - ID#393224)
3or 4 g's
How many of you have given serious thought to how you would cope in case of "serious social disruption?" I have seen quoted herein many times the 3 or 4 g's ( gold,grub,guns,god ) --depending on your material, Spartan and spiritual affiliations.

Let's just say that by this time next week:
1 ) the supermarket shelves are empty.
2 ) the petrol/gas stations are empty.
3 ) the electricity,gas,water are turned off.
4 ) no tv,radio,internet--except a few operators with generators and transmitters.

You get the drift. Add armed gangs roving the streets, the military forces running amok etc.--depending on where you live.

1 ) Will you eat?
2 ) Will you have warmth ( cold winter countries ) ?
3 ) Will you have transport?
4 ) Will you have something to exchange for survival goods?
5 ) This is a touchy subject and hopefully not necessary--but--will you be able to protect your family?

Ever done a fire drill??? How many people have fried because they didn't think in advance of the possibilities?? Think about it.

Cheers, Nick@toomuchboredomandnotenoughtradingingingoldshares!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 03:32 - ID#252127)
Thanks Hedgehog

I'm thinking that something is up, this should make some regulars posting here quite happy. I bought in after the public float for the Lihir financing and since sold 1/2 of my position. Their original plan to control 10% was watered down to 5.6% by that float, but they have since increased their interest to 10.3% of Lihir.
Vengold's management team is excellent, but the large number of issued shares is of concern to me. Thanks again.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 03:37 - ID#153102)
How about some Aussie gold mine speculation suggestions ?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 03:43 - ID#255284)
NZ needs 19 off 18 balls, could this be it?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 03:50 - ID#252127)

SWAN ISLAND MAINE; IRAQI Trawler spotted two miles off this sparsley populated US outpost, two arab looking men with Saddam like features were later seen wadding ashore carrying SUITCASES.
Lobstermen trawling 10 miles to the south of Swan Island said their traps were upset by a beautiful mermaid who seemed to be headed for NYC with what seemed to be a five pound stainless steel container. end

(Thu Feb 12 1998 03:54 - ID#393224)
G'day Mozel
I have about a dozen Aussie gold/silver stocks I am watching VERY carefully. They all have heap-big prospects--depending on physical prices. I watch the charts and especially the volumes. I hesitate to mention specific companies. I am waiting for silver to come back for some of them. This MAY BE the silver correction. I do not know. I would like to see another 50 cents. Gold is balanced on the scales. ( 1 ) War. Big US victory. All evil declared dead. Gold stocks go down. ( 2 ) War. Something goes wrong. Big-time xxxx hits the fan. Gold skyrockets. ( 3 ) Asian collapse, Euro debut, Dow bubble pops??? Am staying on my toes and keeping my cards very close to my chest. Cheers, Nick.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 04:07 - ID#393224)
On my knees I humbly beg thy forgiveness for ever maligning the New Zealand cricket team. Hell-- the US beat Brazil in soccer today and pigs really do fly!!!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 04:53 - ID#393224)
pms tension
Jeez-- my two ounces of palladium in their fancy wooden boxes with certificates are sure lookin' good. Forget about barbarous relics and poor man's gold. They ain't goin nowhere. Now rhodium and platinum--that's another story! Am still waitin' for all those used catalytic converters, folks. "Catalytic Converters R Us" c/o Nick@C.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 05:04 - ID#33650)
Myrmidon/Neofight/real estate collapse
My house is presently valued at USD 1 Mio with debt of 0.7 Mio
If the price collapses ( which I expect ) to 0.5 Mio I am deep in
negative value. But I cannot sell the house now ( we live in it ) nor repay the longterm debt. The natural solution would be to
"short" real estate, but I have no idea how this can be done
in the US or in Europe. Any ideas?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 05:20 - ID#248180)
@Hamlet's House
Sell the house, if it is worth $1mil, pay off the mort. Invest the difference in PM's & mining stocks. Then rent a nice house that will not cost any more than your present mort. commitment. Buying a house is a bad investment. You can always buy it back for $500K.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 05:22 - ID#393224)
Sell your house for a million ( put the proceeds into gold ) and rent someone else's. When your house goes to 500k buy it back and keep the balance of 200k in pm's.
You will then have the same house + 200k worth of gold.
Cheers, Nick

(Thu Feb 12 1998 05:23 - ID#153102)
Aussie gold market looks to me a lot like certain US localities of my acquaintance in which exclusive real estate panache is for fleecing outlanders.
Gold is bad for war and war mongers. Can't fight much or very long if you have to pay as you go.
One important thing in the wind now is IMF funding. The same crowd that got NAFTA through by about one vote and then voted the global nafta through in a lame duck session with jerks that just got voted out are the IMF funding crowd. They will purchase the necessary votes. It's getting pretty rank. But, if Japan sinks much further, will it matter ? I think the Chinese are going to have to devalue for banking reasons if not for political reasons. Will IMF funding matter in that case ?

Oil might be a safer play on the ME theme. I wouldn't elevate it to the status of a war.

Gold is pretty close to the cost of production now. If big money is not buying futures for delivery at these prices, it's got to be only because the laws on bullion force them to register their purchases. So, nothing is left, but silver.

On the aesthetic scale, I have a good case to make that cricket is an inferior form of baseball, but I know you don't want that in yer face, so I'll just wish you joy in your sport and luck in your trading.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 05:33 - ID#224149)
Gold ---Asleep ---C$ still alive
Ted ---C$ Futures new Support 6905----Resistance 7017 ---Gap filled ----Lets see the bull ---Gold ---Momentum ---Ugh Kerplunk---Away to play the trading range

(Thu Feb 12 1998 05:33 - ID#248180)
Jumpin Jack Flash @ Iraqi mermaids
Must be strange things happening all over the planet. On my sunset beach patrol and post/watch of the Great Southern Ocean ( gotta watch for an invasion ) ;I noticed a few one man operated submarines heading towards our shore. On close inspection the operators were not men but women that looked like Saddam, mustache and all. They also had a logo that said Z Force.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 05:40 - ID#153102)
Is that Z for Ziva, Z for Zorro, or Z for zee Zee generation ?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 05:52 - ID#248180)
The waters were treacherous and the wind was wild my friend mozed; The Saddam look-a-likes, moustached, and fast talkers, and lengthy sentences and talk of aliens, lead me to conclude that the "Z" could only represent the Kitco Ziva and her force.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 05:54 - ID#33650)
Nick/real estate
thanks, your advice is good. However, it cannot work in my
family's situation because they all will never want to leave the
house. So I still would prefer general short selling

(Thu Feb 12 1998 05:57 - ID#33650)
Junior/ real estate thanks. please see my post to NICK
your advice is as good

(Thu Feb 12 1998 06:03 - ID#248180)
Mozel @ oil & Pm's
Seriously, I share and understand the difficulty in predicting this market. It is fair to say that we are possibly in the most uncertain yet fast moving times known to mankind. But fundementals of man are constant and so are his needs as Nick @C pointed out in his questions regarding survival. One can consider, wonder and study charts, graphs and waves of theory. In the end you have to place your bets if you're going to be in the game. We have placed our bets on Oil, Natural Gas Producers and PM Mining stocks. Naturally we have some real estate and cash at the banks.
I trust this encourages you towards a clearer decision.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 06:09 - ID#248180)
@Hamlet's House
Divorce your wife - give her the house. Make a will and give your children the mortgage. "Avenge yourself - live and become a very old man and then become an embarrassment to your children" Then your your last will and testement could read: "Being of sound mind I have spent all my money on a good life, here's the debts kids"!!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 06:31 - ID#26793)
They keep looking over their shoulder at ING Barings

(Thu Feb 12 1998 06:34 - ID#26793)
More rioting in Indonesia. Shuarto says "its a plot"

(Thu Feb 12 1998 06:37 - ID#26793)
Russian secrets on platinum supplies confusing market

(Thu Feb 12 1998 06:41 - ID#26793)
Sumitomo Bank declines comment on loan scandal probe

(Thu Feb 12 1998 06:46 - ID#26793)
Bank of Tokyo lops 30% off management rolls, cuts salaries of remaining

(Thu Feb 12 1998 06:49 - ID#393224)
SS Goldbull
Ahoy Mateys!!
"Here we sit, becalmed off the pirate coast, nary a whisper 'o wind in the canvas. Keep alive mateys, swab the decks and..."

"In the nest--what'er those sails yon, laddie?"

"Two mighty galleons, sir. Tis the USS Greenback with Captain Britchless at the helm. T'other one is the HMAS Brittania, sir--looks like Captain Blarney in the bridge!! And sir--there are two little skiffs alongside the Greenback--looks like they're scrubbing her hull, sir!!"

"Who are they, laddie?"

"Can't make 'em out, sir. One has a loonie bird on her stern and t'other a big critter--looks like a giant rat, sir!!"

"Harr, harr, laddie. Impressed scaliwags from some flea-bitten port, no doubt!!"

"Now laddie. What'er their intentions?"

"Not sure, sir, but there's some mad idiot on the sand dunes swaggerin' around wavin' a scimitar in the air, sir!!"

"Harr,harr. Doesn't look a fair fight to me!! But that's never bothered the Greenback before, has it laddie?"

"First mate!!-- sound the battle stations. Keep yer eyes peeled laddies!!"

"Sir, sir!! The ship's carpenter has broken into the rum kegs again!! He's swaggerin' 'round the deck ravin' 'bout loonies and socialists, sir!!

"Not to worry, laddie. Give him a few more of those botanical specimens to smoke!! That'll keep 'im quite. Just be sure you don't tell Mr. Banks!!"

"Now then, laddies, stay on yer toes and be ready for action!!!"

(Thu Feb 12 1998 06:57 - ID#393224)
8 bells. G'nite laddies.
Look after me precious!!
Harr harr!!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 06:59 - ID#398105)
mozel............try these Aussie stocks

looks like Gutnick is re-grouping, and about to raise capital.

Johnsons Well Mining and their Duleton projects have got alot of life in them.

East Coast Minerals and Legened Mining have yet to announce the platinum group element ( principally palladium and rhodium ) assays for their Munni Munni project. these may take a week ot two as they have to be done in Sydney. Very early days on this project.

It should also be noted that Great central Mines now have the bulk of the Munni Munni project, and I would anticipate that J Gutnick will waken up to ECM and LEG a "wee" bit further down the road. Take over time ??? This may add an additional dollar to both EMC and LEG share prices.

ECM are a potential AU$3 + share, and LEG are potentially a AU$ 2+ share.

Aye, Haggis

(Thu Feb 12 1998 07:00 - ID#393224)
BBC semaphore.
Ruskie congressional delegation just arrived in the desert sands to inspect 8 palaces. Harr harr. Captain Britchless will have to wait!!!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 07:00 - ID#348169)
NicK@C - MORE Sir, Please Sir, can I have More?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 07:01 - ID#330175)
Asia blues
Thought the Asian problemO was over ( did they lie to mois? ) --April gold .60 @ 301.20

(Thu Feb 12 1998 07:02 - ID#398105)
error.............. Duleton = Duketon

(Thu Feb 12 1998 07:06 - ID#330175)
Poorboys @ Lake simeco
So there's still a pulse in the ( the big rally in quebec next week scares mois ) --trigger finger still itchy!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 07:08 - ID#26793)
U.S. businessmen lobby for latest corporate welfare payment

(Thu Feb 12 1998 07:11 - ID#330175)
JACK(3:50)................patroling the waters off Swan's Island
Jack---you can relax,the Iraqi ship was sunk by some lunatic in a kayak~~

(Thu Feb 12 1998 07:17 - ID#330175)
BART.......with sh** all over my face...............MOI
I flunked french in school too but will start readin them boxes closer~~
Moi you dummie! Now I really feel like a dunce ( away ta hide my stupid face in shame )

(Thu Feb 12 1998 07:19 - ID#398105)
Highrise........pardon the French, but

Fuck the Arabs.............

"The big fear in the Mid East appears to be the RADICAL Muslims, Turkey,
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and others have a real problem."

The "West" should learn:

..... South Africa and the Sasol Project, fuel from Coal .

..... Oil shales.

..... Oil exploration potential - eg vergin fields in Australia.

..... Vanadium and the new battery.

..... the Germans and the "hyrodgen" car.

What ever happened to the CIA, they used to be so effective in dropping off Governments. Surely there is enough internal problems in the Arab/Muslim countries to cause a "wee" bit of chaos ?!

I have just been down in Perth in Western Australia for a week reviewing a number of gold projects. STRUTH, talk about pass the parcel.......

One project has gone through 6 "Consulting" groups, who have done all sorts of engineering studies. However, they all missed the fundamentals, the ore body model was wrongly constructed, and therefore all engineering studies there after are invalid. Talk about paper pushing, keeps them all in a job, BUT no end result.

Perhaps it's about time that the "paper trail" ended, in more ways than one. Back to fundamentals, and make REAL money ?!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 07:20 - ID#330175)
Language police
In my 7:01 post,MOIS should be MOI!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 07:21 - ID#330175)
Haggis-------you BAD boy.....I have never heard the f-word before and I am very
OFFENDED---go to your room for the rest of the day!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 07:34 - ID#398105)
TZADEAK*............what ever happened to the CIA.......
( @ Highrise....Control and Price of Oil..... ) ID#372344:

They used to be my Heros !!!!!!!!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 07:35 - ID#330175)
Good post younger brother!!...Keep posting news from your area so us isolated westerners can try and learn something about the Asian crisis!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 07:35 - ID#238295)
Gold bullion has held up well these last few days, but gold stocks have not. Since the stocks usually lead this is a bad sign. With Asia coming under pressure again, looks like gold will indeed suck the next 2 weeks as Bernatz has said.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 07:38 - ID#398105)
TED..........sorry Mate, but..........

Perhaps I should spell it.........

ukcf, or
fkcu, or
kufc, or.........

there are 4 factoral combinations.........

still means the same ?!

eAy, Ihgasg

(Thu Feb 12 1998 07:41 - ID#398105)

"....... so us isolated westerners can try and learn something about the Asian crisis!"

I tend to think that is THE problem.........

Aye, Haggis

The Hatt
(Thu Feb 12 1998 07:46 - ID#294232)
Gold is building a very solid base and it is my humble opinion that........
we will see a breakout on the upside within a week!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 07:53 - ID#333127)
Plat looking good, watch for swc to resume its up move soon.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 07:53 - ID#398105)
A thought...............

Has Bill Clinton given up sex in this time of crisis ?

What are the odds ?

If only he was a Frenchman .................

Poor young Monica, tell all or else: prison here she comes, how will she cope !! She will most likely have to accept "visits" from Hillary ?!?

Talk about full circle........

(Thu Feb 12 1998 08:09 - ID#330175)
Haggis(even though you didn't go to yer room)-------
I forgive ya but am still tryin ta clean up the java I spit all over my keyboard when I read the dreaded F-word ( In my 20+ years of construction-oli rig work,I have NEVER heard such a word...I sincerly hope that you have learned a lesson that 'some' of us have sensitive EARS and freak out at such out-bursts~~~~~~~~~away to curse at the GD dog or amnything else that annoys MOI ( what doesn't )

(Thu Feb 12 1998 08:12 - ID#330175)
I'm Stupider than I thought and can't even spell OIL let alone french stuff
oli=oil ( do I have one brain cell? )

(Thu Feb 12 1998 08:13 - ID#398105)
May be George Bush was....................

MUST BE A SIMPLER WAY................ CIA ?!

Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
February 11, 1998

Russia Threatens to Arm Baghdad
But will Saddam Remain in Power?

According to a report on Tuesday in the online edition of the Egyptian
newspaper Al-sha'b, the Russian government has warned Washington that
Russia will supply arms and humanitarian aid to Iraq if the United States
chooses to abandon diplomatic efforts and attacks Iraq. Al-Sha'b reported
that Baghdad requested 20 billion dollars in urgent military and
humanitarian aid from Russia. Baghdad, which already owes Russia 80
billion dollars, hopes to be able to pay off its debt once sanctions are
lifted. Al-Sha'b went on to report that Washington has monitored
heightened states of alert and increased military preparedness throughout
the Middle East, and has warned neighboring Arab states against providing
Iraq with military support.

If the Egyptian report is factual, then Russia has just moved even closer
to confrontation with the United States. Its previous threats of world war
are clearly not credible. Sending aid to Iraq is, on the other hand, quite
credible and therefore is in many ways more dangerous. The question is,
will Hussein be there after the U.S. attack to receive the arms?

We have noticed a curious juxtaposition of official U.S. statements on the
crisis in Iraq with the emerging balance of U.S. forces in the region,
suggesting that Washington may be expecting an Iraqi coup d'etat. U.S.
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright testified before the Senate on
Tuesday that, in the event U.S. air strikes contributed to toppling Saddam
Hussein, "it would create a situation which, for a time, would require the
presence of troops." The United States has accelerated its deployment of
ground troops to the region. Three thousand troops from Ft. Stewart are
being deployed to reinforce the 1,500 U.S. ground troops already in Kuwait.
The USS Tarawa and the USS Guam, amphibious assault ships each carrying a
2,000-man Marine Expeditionary Unit, are headed for the Persian Gulf.
Other U.S. ground forces in the region include 6,000 soldiers at the Prince
Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia and 10,000 soldiers engaged in military
exercises in Egypt.

Additionally, the list of potential U.S. targets has grown from suspected
chemical and biological agent sites to include command and control
installations, the Iraqi air force, and the Republican Guard. This
suggests a decapitation strike, aimed at disrupting Hussein's capability to
coordinate a defense of his hold on power.

Iraqi opposition forces also appear to be preparing for an altered post-air
strike environment. The rival Kurdish Democratic Party and Patriotic Union
of Kurdestan are planning a meeting on February 12 to settle outstanding
differences and stabilize their cease-fire. Iraqi Kurdestan's Conservative
Party public relations officer, Aram Muhammad Sa'id, declared in an
interview on Monday with the Iranian News Agency that Turkey's latest entry
into northern Iraq had the "green light" from the United States, and was
part of a U.S. plan to use air strikes to topple Hussein and dismember
Iraq. Finally, the Iraqi National Congress has reported that Baath Party
and military officials have begun evacuating southern Iraq, lest an
uprising follow U.S. air strikes.

Many in the U.S. Congress have asserted the need for an "end game" that
removes Saddam Hussein from power, but thus far the U.S. has been unable to
foment or coordinate an overthrow of Hussein. If it is to be successful,
we will not know for certain about a coup plot's existence until it is
underway. But circumstances do hint that something may be in the works.
Baghdad has evidently noticed this, as Iraqi Foreign Minister Saeed al-
Sahhaf asserted on Tuesday that the U.S. would fail to topple the Iraqi
regime, since Hussein had the support of the Iraqi people.

The question is this: is there a real possibility of a coup in Baghdad or
is this part of U.S. psychological warfare against Iraq? In a way, the
possibility of a coup is more reasonable an explanation for U.S. behavior
than the idea that the U.S. is going to mount an air campaign against
chemical and biological weapons. What is not clear is whether a coup has a
real chance or whether this is just wishful thinking on the part of the
United States. And it is not clear what Russia would do if the coup turned
into a protracted internal struggle.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 08:31 - ID#340459)
Sudan Vice President and top Army Brass killed in Air Crash..

(Thu Feb 12 1998 08:31 - ID#31868)
The coward elect has not given up sex, he is still screwing everybody in the USA.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 08:32 - ID#398105)
It's a long, slow road..............

Does anyone know where to source Japans ( Bank of Japan ) CURRENT gold holdings ?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 08:34 - ID#340459)
Haggis_A, Can you give your opinion on Pegasus, I bought @.52cents canadian, What scenario's you
envision for future of PGU, Thanks in advance

(Thu Feb 12 1998 08:34 - ID#31868)
neo fight re your 01:55
You do not renounce the 14th amendment status the Government has duped you into. Go to and look around. There is too much material to cover in one post.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 08:35 - ID#342398)
Bart re variation in PM prices
I was checking around with PM arbitrage in mind and a broker at Ira Epstein told me one answer. All trades in futures have to be closed at the location where initiated. According to him, you can't cross settlement between London and N.Y. or any other locations. The variety of costs within each market is such that these differences account for most of the differences in quotes. This is a rough explanation. If you want more, let me know and I'll try to get more detail. So, if you do a simutaneous execution - buying in London and selling in N.Y. you can't deliver the London contract vs the N.Y. sale. There may be sufficient difference in prices to cover costs, but the rules won't allow delivery.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 08:39 - ID#398105)

(Thu Feb 12 1998 08:46 - ID#26793)
@Haggis, Bank of Tokyo question. Try here.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 08:47 - ID#398105)
Midas__A and farfel.................. a confession

I used to manage the Pegasus Kalgoorlie office.

Unless there is a radical increase in the gold price, AND an operations solution to Mt Todd's problems, AND pigs learn to fly,l AND Bill Clinton takes a liking to blokes ............

I am afraid that you are going to lose money !

(Thu Feb 12 1998 08:50 - ID#284255)
Looks like it could go either way.
Dow/spot chart
XAU/spot - monthly
XAU/spot - daily

(Thu Feb 12 1998 08:53 - ID#398105)
Any Movie Producers out there...............

A sure investment............

Buy up the film rights to Andy McNab's new "thriller".... REMOTE CONTROL.
Bantam Press.

Mr McNab was in thje British SAS, and did a bit of a walk about in Iraq during the last Gulf War.

A very "quick", good read !

(Thu Feb 12 1998 08:57 - ID#288399)
More "strategic" stock buy-backs
PPT must be at it again: Morgan Stanley to buy back $3Billion of own stock. Do you think announcement just "happen" to come after Indonesia/Malaysia/Korea glue begins to unstick? And on AG/RR/LS's big IMF "Things are really bad we need IMF money, fast!/Things aren't that bad, no need to panic" Speech day?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 08:57 - ID#284255)
Jakarta, Seoul Stocks Hit By Backlash Fears
The Jakarta stock market demonstrated that despite recent signs of recovery Indonesia's crisis was far from over. Traders rushed to sell on rumors that riots had broken out to protest rising food prices and as President Suharto warned that unknown "parties" were seeking to undermine the economy.

South Korean shares also suffered from jitters as a showdown loomed between the country's militant trade union umbrella group and the government. The Korean Confederation of Trade Unions defied a government warning and said it would go ahead with a general strike planned for Friday.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 08:58 - ID#398105)
Donald__A , thanks..............and good nite all

(Thu Feb 12 1998 08:59 - ID#284255)
Grains Drop on USDA Data
CHICAGO ( Reuters ) - Corn, soybean and wheat prices fell Wednesday after a monthly U.S. government report on world crops pointed to larger global supplies and fierce competition for U.S. exporters this year.

Elsewhere, oil prices closed lower on what was seen as a conciliatory measure by Iraq aimed at avoiding a military conflict over United Nations weapons inspections. Silver closed lower but traders said its uptrend still looked intact.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, soybeans for March delivery closed 12-1/2 cents a bushel lower at $6.80-1/2. Soymeal and soyoil prices also fell sharply.

Keying the break was the U.S. Department of Agriculture's February supply/demand report, released early Wednesday.

In that report, the USDA raised its estimate for Argentine soybean production this year to 16 million metric tons from a forecast of 14.5 million just last month.

Combined, Argentina's and Brazil's soybean crop is now expected to total a record 46 million tons, compared with 38.2 million last year.

"It's clear the Argentina numbers are knocking the stuffing out of the market," said Charlie Sernatinger, vice president, Chicago grain sales, for E.D. & F. Man International. "We knew we had a massive South American crop, and this just confirms it."

Corn and wheat prices also fell back on the prospects for growing supplies and fewer exports this year.

March corn ended 5-1/2 cents a bushel lower at $2.68-1/4.

The USDA cut back its prediction for U.S. corn exports this year to 1.625 billion bushels, from the 1.750 billion it forecast last month. It also increased the amount of corn it expects to be remaining in U.S. storage bins on September 1 to 949 million bushels, 105 million bushels more than it estimated last month.

"I think the reduction in corn exports pressured corn ( prices ) . It was larger than what the trade was looking for. and the market was long to begin with," said Smith Barney market analyst Dale Gustafson.

March wheat closed 5-1/2 cents a bushel lower at $3.32-1/2 on reminders of the rising world wheat crop as well as active competition from Argentina and other wheat exporters.

USDA's wheat estimates held few surprises, with total world wheat supply this year raised to 719 million tons, up 2 million from January. But during the day, traders in Buenos Aires said Argentina had sold 100,000 tons of wheat to Sri Lanka at prices well below those being offered at U.S. ports.

"That's probably more important than the world supply," Sernatinger said. "The Sri Lanka business was done pretty cheaply at $10 per ton, or 20 cents per bushel, below the U.S."

In other markets, oil prices closed lower after Iraq eased its resistance to United Nations pressure to comply with weapons inspections rules set up after the 1991 Gulf War.

Iraq offered to open eight presidential sites for inspection for 60 days provided U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan and the U.N. Security Council overrode their U.N. weapons inspectors and took direct control of the search for forbidden arms.

At the New York Mercantile Exchange, March crude oil closed 28 cents a barrel lower at $16.15, after trading as high as $16.66 before the Iraq news hit.

"The news itself that Iraq was making what it thought was a conciliatory gesture just provided an excuse for selling," said Tim Evans, an analyst with Pegasus Econometric Group in New York.

"The market was already vulnerable because even if there is a military strike, it probably will not result in a long-term supply disruption," said Evans.

The U.S. has built its largest military force in the Middle East Gulf since the Gulf War as it prepares to launch a military strike if Iraq continues to refuse to fully comply with U.N. weapons inspections.

On Wednesday the United States rebuffed Iraq's proposal for limited inspections, which traders said slowed down the selling. World oil supplies continue to build, but the threat of military action in the oil-rich Gulf has not vanished.

March gasoline closed 0.96 cent a gallon lower at 50.17 cents and March heating oil 0.38 cent lower at 45.06 cents.

At the COMEX in New York, silver prices closed lower, but analysts said the market remained underpinned after last week's stunning news that U.S. billionaire investor Warren Buffett had bought almost 130 million ounces of silver, about 20 percent of world supplies.

March silver ended down 10.2 cents at $6.998 an ounce, after hitting a 9-1/2 year high at $7.50 last week on the news.

"I could see a 20 to 30 cent correction in silver, but find it hard to believe in silver coming down a dollar unless we get news of Warren Buffett selling," said Scott Meyers, an analyst with COMEX clearing broker Pioneer Futures in New York.

COMEX silver stocks fell a further 435,548 ounces to 98,093,180 ounces Tuesday, down more than 50 percent in the last year in part due to transfers of gold to London where Buffett has been accumulating his huge stake since last July.

COMEX April gold ended down 50 cents at $301.80 an ounce.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 09:08 - ID#254269)
good morning all

(Thu Feb 12 1998 09:10 - ID#398105)
George Soros, and a passinh thought.........

As we are aware, Mr Soros has been very active on the Korean front, and has been reported to have recently invested some US$ 500 million in the country.

We are also aware that the Koreans have "collected" their gold, and sold it for US$........who to, Mr Soros ?

We are further aware that Mr Soros has most likely been active in gold derivatives, making money as gold dropped from US$400 to US$270 ish.

We are also aware that Mr Soros has close links to Rothchilds, and that Rothchilds set the daily gold price.

The question is raised as to wheither the Korean gold collection formed part of Mr soros covering his position ?

It makes you wonder ?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 09:15 - ID#340459)
@Haggis_A, Thanks.....

(Thu Feb 12 1998 09:15 - ID#284255) Quotes
MARKET UPDATE ( 02/11/98 ) AM-----Gold was up marginally this morning in quiet New York trading. Hong Kong and London were also quiet. Tokyo was closed for a holiday. The Reuters Hong Kong report alluded to Australian producer short covering. Seems like the precious metals are in the mood for a breather after all the recent action surrounding the Buffett acquisitions. There's an unconfirmed story going around that the recent merger between AMAX Gold and Kinross has a time-bomb hidden in it. Millions of ounces of gold forwarded by both companies will have to be covered in order for the merger to occur. We are trying to get to the bottom of this story and will report when we get details. We can confirm another story that was previously reported here as rumor. We reported that a Canadian junior gold mining company had written a huge volume of calls in silver and are now subject to substantial losses. We can now report the rest of the story. The company in question is TVX Gold. In a press release from the company dated 1/28/98, TVX admitted to writing 59.8 million ounces of silver in calls ( essentially a short position ) . The calls were written at $6.67 per ounce. We are not privy to the entire trading position of TVX. We do not know if they still own it. Also we are not qualified options markets analysts, but on the surface this doesn't look good for TVX. 59.8 million ounces is almost half of what Warren Buffett purchased. It is difficult to understand why a gold mining company would be playing around in the options markets and to the tune of roughly 7% of annual silver production. The real question TVX raises is what else is going on out there in this forwarding fiasco. We will keep you informed. Other than the TVX story, things are quiet. We will update if anything else happens of interest. Have a good day, fellow goldmeisters. P.S. We are late with this today due to a radio interview out of sunny San Diego. Wanted to know why Warren Buffett was buying silver......Any ideas out there. I attribute Mr. Buffett's activity to prudent diversification in the face of an overvalued stock market.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 09:28 - ID#254269)
Third day of testimony for Monica's mother;

You know, I'm not sure where I come down on this one; forcing a parent to testify, where the testimony probably will be used against the daughter just doesn't seem right to me ! But, that's just my opinion.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 09:35 - ID#254269)

Page A22 ( Editorial Page ) of today's WSJ is titled "Obstruction and Abuse; A Pattern".

It is a full page chart/timeline devoted to all the different allegations against Clinton. For example, Campaign Finance Abuses, Whitewater, Health Care, FBI Files, Travel Offcie, Gennifer and Paula, Hillary's Commodities trading and a few other "gates" I have not heard of before.


(Thu Feb 12 1998 09:41 - ID#398105)

gold still oscillating.

silver going up.............

PGM's going up.........

(Thu Feb 12 1998 09:45 - ID#254269)
Other "Gates" in the WSJ article;

1. Vince Foster Death
2. Ron Brown Paper Chase
3. Webster Hubbell
4. The Arkansas Train Deaths
5. The Lasater Case
6.Health Care Task Forces

The article is full page and draws a "time-line" of each of these topics. It is a "refresher course" of all of these events, with major dates and players involved. Fascinating stuff ! !

(Thu Feb 12 1998 09:49 - ID#206379)
just a test

(Thu Feb 12 1998 09:52 - ID#254269)
Other WSJ articles;
1. Page C1, Nickel's rally may be turned on its head.
2. Not an article but on Page C18, there is one of those "tombstone" announcements that the major brokerages put out. This one is about Platinum Technology Inc, who have raised $150 million of 6.25% convertible subordinated notes due 2002. The issue was underwritten by Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Technology Group. I don't know if this has any relevance or not, just reporting the tombstone.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 10:09 - ID#411149)
sharfin- you gona have to hit reload whrn you go to the USA Gold site.
The one you posted is yesterday, his latest rumor garbage is the AM of the 12th. This guy is a bullion dealer I guess and has fun trashin the gold stocks with RUMOR. Screw him too!

You know I don't mind pushin my product but I try not to SCREW my friends in the process!

Tally Ho

(Thu Feb 12 1998 10:10 - ID#344239)
"Mkt. Crash"
In answer to "The Hatt 00:24 post"! The tent can't come down til the exit doors are made larger with the new trading curbs.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 10:17 - ID#257136)
MYRMIDON: Re: your 01:03
You ask about those made homeless by repossession of their homes or sale for tax purposes.
I refer you to T#1's post ofSaturday Jan 24, 199818:09 in which it states inPP # 11:
"PEO 11004 allows the Housing and Finance Authority to relocate commmunities, build new housing with public funds, designate areas to be abandoned, and establish new locations for populations"

This is, to me the coup de grace for our Freedoms and Immunities, once the ol' boys find a way to implement it!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 10:27 - ID#57232)
Likely short term downturn in gold/gold_stocks, xxxgate heating up
All: Old Gold has warned us today that the SEAsia markets are weakening, as well as the gold stocks. I have two things to add -- the CRY0 index is peaking, and now we hear about record harvests in SA ( don't recall which ones ) .

So -- downward pressure on commodities will have a negative short term effect on gold/gold_stocks as well. Perhaps we will have yet another opportunity to test the $280/oz gold price again.

Is everyone aware that five Secret Service agents have been subpoenaed, retired agent Fox will be testifying, ML's mother has been called back for a third day of grant jury testimony, and Janet Reno just assigned a new independent prosecutor to investigate Bruce Babbitt? Things are really heating up in the xxxxgate series.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 10:28 - ID#284255)
Tar and feather him?
Funny that.
It is the Friday 13th here.
And I've tried to reload/refresh that url.
All I can get is the 11th.
You really think that he is that bad?

Life is but a rumour.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 10:33 - ID#206358)
jtf,ted,allen,..more from strait of malaka,

Today,found very strange in stocks and currencies market.Most regions currencies and stocks fell sharply,except the rupiahs stand strong and still at us1: 7200~+-!Think the indo govt try to pushed the rupiahs ( around 5500:1us ) to peg with the bil!Rumours turn up to the hedge fund and speculators will turn back again!Maybe already in...!More bad news around whole areas now,the fire spread so fast....!

Copy from the sourse read: Hundreds rampage as Indonesian violence edges toward capital by Jason Tedjasukmana

JAKARTA, Feb 12 ( AFP ) - Shops were blazing in the town of Jatiwangi Thursday as violent
unrest linked to Indonesia's
stinging economic crisis edged toward the capital.

Hundreds of rioters trashed, looted and burned shops down the main street of the West Java
province town in a rage over
soaring prices and shortages of basic goods.

As their fury boiled over and the mob singled out shops it accused of hoarding essential items
for profit, there were reports
of unrest from elsewhere in the country with hundreds of students in three major cities
demanding political and economic

President Suharto Thursday ordered the military to boost its readiness to deal with unrest and
commanders have prepared
plans to seal off the capital to prevent violence spreading here from the rest of the country.

More than 35,000 police and troops are on duty or on stand-by in the capital to deal with any

Six stores believed by the mob to be hoarding essential goods were burning into Thursday
evening after being torched by
the enraged crowd, a witness in the Jatiwangi, 250 kilometers ( 150 miles ) east of here, told
AFP by telephone.

Some 44 shops and homes, most owned by ethnic Chinese, were damaged and another 15
torched, he said.

The rioting began in front of the local telecommunications office around 10:30 a.m. ( 0330
GMT ) and spilled down the main
street, where dozens of stores were trashed or burned by a mob that swelled to around 500
people, the witness added.

A police officer said 18 people had been arrested but there had been no reports of injuries.

"Some of them burned the goods in front of the stores that were looted," added the officer, who
declined to give his name.

Another resident said telephone lines were down in some areas because of the fires, while
nearly all of the town's shops
were closed.

The officer said the rioters were mostly small traders and pedicab drivers in the town of 75,000,
whose residents are mostly
farmers and laborers.

Troops and police were patrolling the streets among the burning and gutted buildings but the
town remained tense,
residents said.

More than a dozen riots have flared in cities and towns across the country over the past two
weeks, but Thursday's incident
was the first linked to the crisis in West Java province, which surrounds Jakarta.

Hundreds of students rallied in at least three major cities Wednesday to protest soaring prices
and call for political change,
while police broke up another protest in Jakarta and said they were holding more than 140
participants a day later.

In Medan, the country's third biggest city and home to some 12 million people, students
marched through the North
Sumatra University campus demanding President Suharto's removal and action against corrupt
public officials.

They also called for the scrapping of a draconian law on subversion and pledged support for
opposition figures who have
been critical of Suharto, the Jakarta Post said.

"Lower prices," "limit presidential power," they shouted as security forces looked on. No
violence or arrests were reported.

But 25 students were arrested in the Central Sulawesi province capital of Palu when hundreds
of students took to the
streets carrying banners and chanting slogans demanding lower prices.

Many of the city's shops closed in fear of violence but the protestors dispersed peacefully after
student leaders met with

In Yogyakarta, students from the Indonesian Islamic University urged the military to act against
hoarders they claimed were
driving up prices.

"When the poor across the country cry for fulfillment of basic needs, hoarding commodities is an
uncivilized act," they said
in a statement.

The military has warned it will not tolerate social unrest and has been forced to race to flare-ups
around the country as
tension increases, with the ethnic Chinese minority often bearing the brunt of the mob anger.

But more demonstrations are planned in Jakarta, where millions are feeling the pain of spiralling
prices, shortgaes of
essential goods and soaring unemployment.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 10:34 - ID#201131)
TVX and silver calls
IT is pretty obvious to me that there are a lot of companies that are short call options on gold and silver that they can not cover with current production schedules. As an example TVX is naked 10 million ounces of silver ( by writing calls ) at a strike price 6.76. If silver should go up to 16 bucks they would have a margin call in the area of 100 million dollars that they dont have. I am sure they would try and delay delivery or whatever but the bottom line is they sold the calls naked to enhance their balance sheet and it could come back to bite them in the butt. Talks with investor relations indicates that there is a conference call Tuesday to addres these concerns and others with the company. When you see that in the year 2001 the calls at a strike price of $6.87 and bought puts at a strike price of $6.60 you have to wonder what kinda of strategy is that unless they are just trading for their own account and got caught.

Spud Master
(Thu Feb 12 1998 10:36 - ID#273112)
@News flash!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The US president has changed policy in order to target Iraq with crappy Hollywood movies, shoddy commercial US sitcoms and tabloid antics of a degenerate US President.

Secretary of State Madeline Kahn said "If we could ruin the US populace in thirty years with TV, it'll work in Iraq." The NSA, working with the USAF has repositioned covertly launched geo-sync direct broadcast satellites, nick-named "Spam-Sats" to rain down into Iraq airspace a continual barage of "Beverly Hills 90260", "Seinfeld", "Star Trek Voyager: The Politcially Correct Generation" amoung other informational weapons of mass mental destruction.

Reports are flooding in of Iraqi children skipping school and experimenting with drugs, Iraqi women enjoying the pleasures of tapirs, Iraqis getting home equity mortagages to invest in the US stock market, and a general feeling of the relativity of moral rights & wrongs.

Saddam Hussien has filed a protest in the UN, demanding attack by nuclear weapons as "a kinder, gentler way to destroy our country".

---Ziva, please don't respond.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 10:41 - ID#284255)
Zero to infinity - Z = Z  + C
Watched a stunning documentary on TV.
"The Colours of Infinity" by Arthur C Clark
It was all about the 'Mandelbrot Set'.
And was on the 'Masterpiece' show on SBS TV

It was an enlightening experiance about cycles and patterns.
Tied in a lot of what Crooks talks about.
Truly amazing and worth looking at.
I would presume that it has been circulated worldwide.
And well worth chasing up.

Chaos is not chaos but merely a pattern within a pattern
Traveling between zero and infinity.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 10:49 - ID#317193)
Lots of red numbers early in US and Europe. Tom

(Thu Feb 12 1998 10:52 - ID#333131)
@fear and trembling
I'm ignoring all usual market indicators. Political events are overtaking all else. With a weak US administration which has no real thinkers on foreign policy, a seething Moslem world, a Western population which cares nothing for ideas but worships short term cleverness, I fear for us all. I pray the "New world order" will not be chaos. I hold gold out of fear and with a heavy heart. I only hope it will be an unwise investment.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 10:55 - ID#335190)
Ron Brown - Close up of wound.

Ron Brown Photos

Foster Book Author Challenges Hillary Clinton

Ruddy Corrects Washington Post

(Thu Feb 12 1998 10:56 - ID#57232)
A Fate worse than Nuclear Attack!
SpudMaster: Your post about a direct assault on Iraq utilizing our own American propaganda mills was a work of art! Why should we send our military to the Gulf if we have much more effective means of distrupting Saddam's world! That would give the American people a rest, too!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 10:59 - ID#228100)
Let's Get Our Priorities Straight......
ABOARD THE USS GEORGE WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- A sailor preparing for a possible military strike against Iraq told Defense Secretary William Cohen Wednesday he was worried Americans were more concerned about whether President Clinton had sex with an intern ``than they are about us.''

Additional details:

F*** the Arabs? No. Theyre just out to make a buck. Cant blame them for that. Its not their fault that we cant come-up with something like a 10 Year Plan to Eliminate Dependence on Fossil Fuel. ( Say, remember Kennedys challenge to put a man on the moon... )

F*** Clinton! Hes the one sending thousands of our best people to war, just to divert attention from his Presidential Pecker Problems.

Since Biblical times, there has ALWAYS been trouble in the Middle East. And there ALWAYS WILL BE, even if we kick Saddam's butt. Where's the real leadership we need to eliminate our long-term dependence on this region?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 11:00 - ID#206358)
CARL.....good post!straight,sharp and to the heart points!
Good post!Short and sharp!Thanks.

Barb Hughes
(Thu Feb 12 1998 11:01 - ID#20783)

SEE: BART'S 2-11-98 17:08 post

BART posted an extensive PM report but 1st 5 pages are unreadable, as text lines are over other text lines.

If you copy to a text editor or word processor ( all will become clear ) it is an excellent report 16 pages long....a good read on PM's

Take care...Barb

(Thu Feb 12 1998 11:06 - ID#284255)
Avid silver rant
Allright silver buffs.... If silver is really doing so great what with Warren Buffet buying so much of it, why then....please tell me, aren't prominent silver mining companies like sunshine mining... why aren't they also moving up BIG in price HHHHHMMMMMMMMM?????????

I smell a rat

rsk, yep. i wonder how long it takes for ma and pa to figure that out.

...i live right next door to sunshine.......their stock is....what's the word....diluted, i guess.......

Used ya could kinda count on sunshine for a quick double in times like these, but unless I'm off my mark, it just ain't happening this time. Makes one wonder is all.

....."in times like these".......was a long, long time ago....

well tell me babber, are they still mining 24 hrs per day?

are going just south of very important m.a.. bonds, yes bonds, look good.

well I would appreciate knowing whether one of the most abundant silver mining companies in America doesn't find operating with silver at $7 ...again makes one wonder. Please do inform us if you can.

the permabears on metals are looking to how st warren of omaha can get out of his long silver position. little do they know that st warren sees $ 15-17 silver down the road and is never in a hurry. so now it's time to fade the bears from mother merrill and everywhere else. oh lord i believe, help thou my unbelief, etc.

I wonder has Sunshine forward sold their production for the next couple of years at lower prices?

clearly WB would not be taking delivery for a short term trade. Nope, he's in for as will be measured in years not days.

... Sunshine ( poor thing ) _ almost doubled in price ( well maybe 60% or so ) in the last month. We recommended silver at just under $6 and sold it at $7 a few days ago. Look for a pullback to maybe $6.50 ( May ) and it should be a good buy again. Hunt bought for years and years. He just got greedy. If he had of let some of those shorts out with a little mercy they would have never drummed him like they did. Hunt did silver from 72 to 80 that was 8 years. During his play it went from around $2 to a peak of $50. Dixie will make out well - just give a little time.

good question? But even if they did sell forward, if it was profitable for them with silver at $5 that should still be true.

: like they say in the x-files.... "I want to believe". I just been burned by the shiny metal one too many times. so what would be the prefered bullish trade? Futures, options, physical silver????

didn't WB start buying around $4.40 and his last buy was around $5.25 he already has a strong profit .Call him in about 5 years when he considers selling

silver ..put it on an Elliot wave and use fibo numbers. I have never seen any commodity behave so orderly. I think with a 50 cent pull back futures can be the best way to trade the little shiny one. She will move in 5 waves and then 3.

i agree with you. a pullback or consolidation of the gains from last summer. our timescale for gold is for an important event around 2/20. but even if that is premature, chances are excellent that the long in the tooth bear is dying.

ssc closed at 1 5/16 not very impressive....

look at the longterm chart of copper, I think you could do the same thing, maybe Buffet just feels theres not much for him to invest in the metals don't go bad, 100% in silver or copper is the same as 100% in Wells Fargo

right copper sure must be a buy here except bonds and copper trend counter-cyclically. one up the other down. As it looks like bonds will continue up for at least one to two years, copper's future does not look too great from that perspective.

In the early days silve was $1.29 first move up went to $2.58.. then the pullback to $1.29 then there was a steady grind with a blowoff to $6.45 and a crash to $3.87. After that there was the long and painful move to the blow off high of $50. Those were the days. Look at those first numbers . they are exact numbers and check out their fibe relationships. unbelievable..... and some sah there is nothing to fibo numbers.

I agree as all the big moves usually start from a prolonged period near 60-70

I will be looking for a place to get long maybe later. Support appears to be at $6.40 and should hold if tested. That would be as good a buy as one could hope for imo.

....we are in the early stages of wave 1

... that could be a very good entry those charts ...silver will talk to you . ;- )

now you're talking....just go ahead tomorrow and call sunshine and ask them if they're i believe they do own some other mines besides the ones in the Pacific Northwest.......if they have some interests in South America...those are probably producing.........i forget the break even point for silver to be at per ounce to generate a profit.......but it fell below that long ago and that's why most mines closed down around here.........mostly i think now......well i think gold is leech mined a lot.......and then maybe they can get some silver out of some of the tailings......shoot, i forgot how they're doing it's not like the old days though........

...i have heard about $8.00 silver needed for many mines to reopen...

i think silver would have to get above 8 be profitable around here.....and even then they'd probably not re-open.because that costs a lot.....but if the price went above 10 dollars.......then they'd sell some contracts forward and hire back a small work force........i must say though.......this is just based on my memory of the situation around would have to do just some minor determine exactly what the situation is......

.......yes, that's a number generally passed around.......and they usually want it to be much higher and to stay there for quite some time...... before they get too excited.......

if people have 6 trillion in mf and corp. equities...2% goes along way in terms of silver and gold prices....even though it seems unimaginable now....

I pretty sure I have solven the national debt problem of the USA. Klinton can require every person to purchase a 100 oz silver bar. For those who do not have the funds, the Gov will loan them the money and keep the silver as colateral. This would produce sales for approximately 25 billion ounces of silver ( warren only bought 130 million ) there is not too much silver is there. Well anyway this proceedure would drive the price to silver well above 100 per ounce. The government then could require everyone to pay taxes on their profits which would be inexcess of $90 per ounce. That would be 9000 per bar. The taxes would be 25% at least or say $2,250. for each of us 250,000,000 folks and that would be a tax revenue of $562 trillion. That would cover the debt. plus leave every US citizen with $7,000. in extra desposable income. That is the facts Jack ...There is not much silver!!!!! Life can be so simple ;- )

a smart man, which st warren is, can milk the heck out of a market with that much inventory, especially with something that has so much shelf life. the cotton merchants do it with their certified-for-delivery stock. i'll bet he makes money *with* it, while he has it. : )

(Thu Feb 12 1998 11:07 - ID#57232)
Mandelbrot Set and all that!
Sharefin: Thanks for the clue. Arthur C. Clarke is one of the most 'hard science' oriented Science Fiction writers: 2001, 2010. I know there is order in the universe under the apparent chaos, and it is such things as the Fibonacci series, and similar concepts that will allow us to unravel part of the mystery. My guess is that the order under the apparent chaos of our world will not be discovered easily, and it is people like Crook who have started the process. Much statistical analysis needs to be done to find the variables and correlates necessary to see the order, and that is coming -- slowly.

I'm sorry to say I still have not had the time yet to find the appropriate wavepacket analysis ( orthogonal ) set to analyze future behavior of the markets. Will try to do another net search this weekend. Another big inspection next week at work, with me on the menu.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 11:09 - ID#293211)
Our founder warned us about getting involed in foolishWAR
George Washington warned us not to become involed in wars that do
not directly impact upon our national defense. Stand up for your children
ens future and call your congressmen and sound off its time to stop
being the worlds policeman.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 11:14 - ID#333131)
Thank you for your complement and more so for your posts.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 11:23 - ID#318118)
Synthetic Diamonds
You guys have just about ruined my entire day. I just purchased a
set of 1 1/2 carat diamond/gold stud earrings for my wife for our
anniversary. Top quality diamonds from Russia. At least I was lucky enough to pay almost wholesale.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 11:23 - ID#57232)
You certainly are our early warning indicator!
Jin: Thanks for the posts -- keeping us up to date. The anti-Chinese riots have started. I hope you have a good place to hid your family, and you business is well-hidden. You probably know better than I do, but I would guess that demand for your precious metals goods will not increase until employment starts to rise again. But -- you may have alot of gold sellers that need cash or other commodities to get food and shelter.

Thanks for the post on the Chinese black market. My guess is we must wait for the Chinese devaulation, and for the Japanese financial crisis to end, before the SEAsians can breathe a sigh of relief, and start picking up the pieces.

You can see problems are heating up for us too -- with a rapidly expanding investigation of the President, and a war of nerves with Iraq.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 11:28 - ID#238295)
Much of what we see in the media re: Iraq is psywar propaganda. Take it all with a grain of salt.

When this is over Iraq will almost certainly allow inspections to resume. But if SH is still in power and we here about a timtable for ending sanctions, US will have "lost".. THE FACT THAT OIL PRICES HAVE NOT RALLIED MUCH DURING THIS "CRISIS" SIGNALS THAT SMART PLAYERS ANTICIPATE SANCTIONS WILL NOT LAST MUCH LONGER HOWEVER THINGS PLAY OUT IN THE WEEKS AHEAD.

If gold is going to have another shakeout look for it soon after US bombs Iraq. All uphill from there.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 11:31 - ID#31868)
This is the problem people
The following are traitors plain and simple.

The President
The Vice-President
The Secs. of Treasury - Defense - State

They have lied, cheated and you are the ones supporting them and paying the bills, plain and simple.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 11:33 - ID#34883)
Ted: Moidore?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 11:51 - ID#286249)
sharefin (Zero to infinity - Z = Z  + C), JTF
I too so the program...a spiritual and intellectual experience...held
in thrall by the wonders of the universe...

(Thu Feb 12 1998 11:59 - ID#335190)
Republicans 1860 platform @ Central Bank Corporation-FREE SOIL-FREE LABOR("Know Nothings Party")-ME!
A New National Party

The new party got off to a shaky start. It faced opposition not only from the Democrats but also from the so-called "Know Nothings," who formed yet another party. Out of this political chaos came a new party system, dominated by the issue of slavery, which most benefited the young Republican party.

Building on a base of former **Free-Soilers, **anti-Nebraska Democrats, and **antislavery Whigs**,

the Republican party stood primarily for a ban on slavery in the territories.

In the presidential campaign of 1856 the Republicans heralded their candidate, John C. Frmont, with the chant,
"Free Soil,
Free Labor,
Free Speech,
Free Men,

Frmont." In a losing effort Frmont captured 33% of the popular vote.

By 1860, Republicans were in a strong position. The **Whig party had disappeared, the **Know-Nothing party had faded, and the **Democratic party was deeply divided over the issue of slavery. In 1860 a four-way presidential race brought victory to the **Republican candidate,

Lincoln's victory led to secession by slave-holding Southern states. The ultimate **withdrawal of 11 states gave the Republicans control of the federal government. In the course of the Civil War, Republicans abolished slavery. They also adopted a far-reaching economic program as promised in their 1860 platform.

The leading measures were
( 1 ) the Homestead Act,
( 2 ) the Morrill Land Grant Act,
( 3 ) higher tariff duties,
( 4 ) federal aid for a transcontinental railroad, and
( 5 ) encouragement of a national banking system.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 12:09 - ID#254269)
Dow at 8255 (down 60 points) at noon EST, 266 million shares traded.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 12:12 - ID#22956)
Mooney - I am long cotton for a seasonal... ( bottom's are in? ) it's now or never, eh?
Ted - It is good that you clean up your act. Now go gamble in Sydney...29black...ohmy
RJ - git on the blower to
God Fearing Peoples - git over it! Hell and Damnation is all in your head....and goldbugs know this better than anyone.....ask Heavy ( handed ) Hitter...
Gold - WELL???!??
Cherokee - ( puff ) ... ( puff ) ...can't make the skiing....but you will surely have the powder and the Betties at your disposal.....uh huh!
Nick@C - you are killing me man...yuk, yuk. Aaaaargh Matey! Batten down those hatches, we are in for a ( calm ) ride.... ( ugh ) ...
OldGold - you are starting to sound ( again ) like someone from the past...hmmm... ( who could that be? ) ... bring 20/20 vision to the masses

(Thu Feb 12 1998 12:14 - ID#31868)
I think I will stick with Davidson and Mogg at this point. Deflation is on the way, and this is not going to be pretty. Not pretty at all.

Strad Master
(Thu Feb 12 1998 12:17 - ID#250297)
Ron Brown
6PAK: My wife is a doctor who, as part of her training, did a stint in forensic pathology. I had her look at those Ron Rrown photos and she thinks they are bogus. A bullet would not cause a perfectly circular bone wound unless shot at point blank range. The problem with that is if it were point blank one would expect to see powder burns around the wound which are not there, Also the hole would be the same size as the caliber of the bullet, which ( according to the ruler underneath ) would have to have been big enougn to blow the rest of his head off the body in an exit wound. Even at point blank, one would expect to see some star shaped fracturing of the bone itself and the brain matter would be protruding in a rather messy way from the wound. She says the wound looks more like a "trefine" which was a surgical process that Mayas used to let "evil spirits" out of the heads of sick people. I've seen numbers of Maya skulls in Mexico with trefine holes on display in museums. ( Interestingly, several of the skulls had multiple trefine holes in them, some had partially healed - indicating that the process was done several times with no ill effect. ) As to the photo of the plane on the hill, that looked pretty phoney to me - sort of like a little claymation model. Too bad... It was a golden theory.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 12:23 - ID#286249)
Date: Thu Feb 12 1998 05:23 mozel I think the Chinese are going to have to devalue for banking reasons if not for political reasons.
Was more than a little interested in your assessment!
part of the central bank efforts to slow the growth rate in foreign exchange reserve, ... I[news-forex 1/26/98]
Ive made a couple of assumptions ( always fraught with risk, granted ) : that the bird cage theory , i.e., a very controlled discipline with regard to things monetary, gave one reason to rate Chinese intentions to define in terms of gold, credence; that Chinese problems were ( in contrast to USA for example ) problems of strength--surplus--rather than deficits, and that this would give the Chinese more sea-room to maneuver; that the Chinese would bide their time to demonstrate their strength and resolve vis a vis the Wests panic and ineptitude. As for banking problems: one wonders if they would not let the debt go without too much breast beating...knowing that introduction of a truly sound currency would eradicate all history of past bankruptcy ( and what would it matter if EVERYONE is failing to meet debt obligations--they would be one of many ) . Interesting problem, yes?


(Thu Feb 12 1998 12:24 - ID#41229)
sharefin & ALL>>>>>>>>>>>>SSC going to soar!
I think it would be worth your time to give Rebecca a call @ SSC. 1-800-542-6161

They do not forward sell any silver except what they have in inventory, this is processed silver. They do not use derivitives to hedge! They feel it is too risky. They have been in full production only since July. Rebecca states that company has not been in this good of position since 20yrs. Company coming out with PR package to stimulate investing interests in the next 3 weeks.

The Sunshine Mine

The Sunshine Mine is rapidly expanding production and reducing costs, as
demonstrated by 1997 third quarter production of approximately 1.2 million
ounces of silver at a cash cost of $4.07 compared to 1996s 536 thousand ounces
of production at a cash cost of $7.42. Fourth quarter production at the mine is
expected to increase again to approximately 1.4 million ounces. In 1998
production should exceed 5.5 million ounces with cash costs of less than $4.00.
Reserves, at approximately 35 million ounces at the end of 1996, have been
consistently replaced over the mines 100 year history. Sunshines geologists have
estimated known structures in the mine contain mineralized material in excess of
current reserves totaling 8.4 million tons at an average grade of 21.9 ounces per

The Pirquitas Mine

The company recently completed an initial pre-feasibility study on the Pirquitas
Mine, which was acquired at the end of 1995. The mine is located in the
northwest Argentina province of Jujuy, at an elevation of about 4200 meters.
Drilling, metallurgical testwork, and mine planning, which are all at an early stage,
already substantiate a reserve within the currently designed pit totaling 66.9 million
ounces of silver and 39 thousand tons of tin. The initial mine plan projects 9.1
million ounces of silver production annually at an average cash cost of $2.65 per
ounce after capital expenditures of approximately $100 million. Metallurgical
testwork currently underway has demonstrated potential to significantly improve
expected capital and operating costs. Drilling scheduled for the first half of 1998 is
expected to add 30 to 50 million ounces to reserves. The deposit remains open on
strike to the east, west, and at depth, and additional zones of mineralization are
apparent to the north and south.

La Joya del Sol

This concession, covering about 2500 hectares in the southern Argentina province
of Chubut, is characterized by a series of north-south striking epithermal veins
outcropping on the surface. Surface sampling to date has returned consistent
high-grade gold mineralization from these veins. Drilling has now commenced to
evaluate the veins at depth. The property has excellent surrounding infrastructure,
and it is anticipated that recovery will be from a conventional vat leaching

Revenue Virginius

Located in the Ouray district of southwest Colorado, the mine carries a reserve of
260 thousand tons of ore, containing 6.2 million ounces of silver at a grade of 23.9
ounces per ton. The ore also contains .06 ounces per ton gold and 5.89%
combined lead, zinc and copper. Mineralized material at the property totals 3.6
million tons containing 11.1 ounces per ton silver as well as gold and base metal
values. Good potential exists to expand the size of the deposit as other veins exist
on the property which have not yet been explored. Recent studies have shown
that with capital to reopen of $11 million, the mine could produce approximately
three million ounces per year at a cash operating cost of approximately $3.50 per
ounce, net of by-product credits.

Rebecca stated that Argentina will be brought on line ahead of schedule. I suggest that people get on board before 1st qtr results come out.


(Thu Feb 12 1998 12:29 - ID#270315)
Gold and Iraq: What are the odds BC will make an air strike? Anyone care to give % of odds?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 12:34 - ID#288399)
I would be very interested in any "info" re:deflation that Davidson/Mogg have spoken of. Do they say when it might be hitting us? The degree? What investments do they think might do better in deflation? Thanks.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 12:37 - ID#255284)
Uh uh don't let the rain come down..My head's got a hole in it, and I might drown
Trephining used to be used quite extensively in W Medicine too. A small hole drilled in the side of the head was supposed to allow the evil spirits ( who lived in the head ) to escape back to the ther. Can't think of any posters who should try it now, eh?

W medicine is still in the dark ages.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 12:38 - ID#273112)
Spud Master (@News flash!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) ID#273112:
====The US president has changed policy in order to target Iraq with crappy Hollywood movies, shoddy commercial US sitcoms and tabloid antics of a degenerate US President. ====

Great idea, but you seem to forget the most critical part of such a plan: A WELFARE PROGRAM. US should institute a program there under which all productive, responsible individuals would be robbed and thus prevented from having too many kids.

The money would then be given to:
1. Old Iraqi Farts who pissed away their lives playing bingo
2. Dope and Booze infected bottom of the Iraqi society, who would be paid to dope, booze, and produce as much offspring as their bodies can.

If the plan works, all nominal political power will quickly be placed in the hands of the two above listed groups, with a representative of the second group eventually reaching the highest post in the country. ( Does Iraq have interns though?! )

(Thu Feb 12 1998 12:41 - ID#335190)
USofA min.Wage @ Thailand $6.20 per day- Indonesia $2.25 per day-China $1 per day
Clinton proposes $1 minimum wage increase by 2000

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - President Bill Clinton on Thursday proposed raising the U.S. minimum wage by $1 in two 50-cent steps by 2000.

"I think we should raise it again by $1 in two equal steps by the turn of the century," Clinton told fellow Democrats in a speech. In 1996 the Republican-held Congress voted to raise the minimum wage to $5.15 per hour from $4.25 in two increments.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 12:50 - ID#31868)
Give me a minute, I WILL get dig up some stuff for ya.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 12:52 - ID#210235)
CNBC just ran a news flash, stock fund inflows lowest since '95. Blamed the Asian crisis affecting investor perception.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 12:54 - ID#287280)

Mozel--Addendum--Chinese industries lower prices [FT news:Asia-Pacific, 2/10--just delivered by amazing USPostal Service]

Some of Chinas leading manufacturers have been forced to slash prices further this year in an effort to win a greater share of an oversupplied market.... by James Harding in Shanghai

One wonders if this is not a very round-eyed view? Chinese business/manufacturers are, in large part, the Chinese Army and/or the Chinese government. There are no shareholders to take them to court questioning profit loss; there may well be--given large surpluses--the ability to survive sans profits? What ( gasp ) if the point of their game plan isnt to get more stuff, create bigger banks?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 12:56 - ID#287280)

Mozel--Addendum--Chinese industries lower prices [FT news:Asia-Pacific, 2/10--just delivered by amazing USPostal Service]

Some of Chinas leading manufacturers have been forced to slash prices further this year in an effort to win a greater share of an oversupplied market.... by James Harding in Shanghai

One wonders if this is not a very round-eyed view? Chinese business/manufacturers are, in large part, the Chinese Army and/or the Chinese government. There are no shareholders to take them to court questioning profit loss; there may well be--given large surpluses--the ability to survive sans profits? What ( gasp ) if the point of their game plan isnt to get more stuff, create bigger banks? See, for a lark,
"A New Chinese Empire?" Noda Nobuo

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:00 - ID#31868)
Given a moment of thought, hmmmmmmm. They like gold, and gold stocks, they are high on OROP-canada, BEARX to effectively short the market. They also like PWN-NASDAQ - they run pawn shops all over the USA and a few in Europe.

However, I feel that I would not be helping you if I did not suggest that you go out and get a copy of The Great Reckoning-now revised and updated. By James Dale Davidson and Lord Rees Mogg-Simon and Schuster - I think you can get it right over the WWW

This book covers so much, and I do not feel that could properly address their thoughts.

You can also visit their web site and look at back issues. I subscribe and find it very useful in terms of not only original thinking but as a balance in the mix of other materials I read.

I do not mean to be vague, but, you asked a question that I do not feel capable in answering properly.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:06 - ID#31868)
One final thought, they like cash in a deflationary environment. Bonds as well, however as I stated earlier; Do yourself a favor, get the book it is excellent. If nothing else it will solidify your thinking, that is for sure.

Good luck.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:08 - ID#348127)

I disagree with your 11:28 post.This thing in the Mideast is going to happen in a big way. It may not happen in the next week like people are expecting, but in the coming months we are to experience some changes both here and abroad. I am looking for a US attack followed by an Arab chemical or nuclear rense on either Isreal or US. Al are off after that. Media is being kind by preparing us for this. Watch what they are doing closely.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:09 - ID#255284)
From Radio buttons to check boxes, I wonder if they're friendly..

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:12 - ID#255284)
2: Multiple check boxes contiguous

Plse, how many carrier groups in Gulf now?


(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:13 - ID#270315)
Can you please go into what their view is on Gold And Gold stock?
I would really appreciate it. I cannot afford to throw good money after bad, and I need to know if I am on the right track. I too like Gold and Gold stocks and I want to make sure that my views concurr wiyh yours and thiers.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:13 - ID#410198)
The scary thing according DICK Morris in the Hill newspaper Hillary in charge

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:13 - ID#57232)
Ron Brown Injuries
StradMaster: I have asked some associates and have got a similar response. The key question is where is the missing properly exposed x-ray that showed a 'dense cloud' of what may have been lead shot. Why is it missing if there is nothing suspicious, on such an important person as Ron Brown? You should ask your wife what the injury might look like if the projectile ( s ) were not shot from a conventional gun, but rather with some kind of exotic gun, more like one of those commercial nail guns. Less powder burns, lower velocity projectile? Also the skin was displaced in the photo presented, so powder burns might not be readily evident. The real questions are why the 'hushed' coverup with no autopsy, why were his injuries non-lethal ( hip fracture ) with an apparent isolated lethal head injury? And -- why did the nurse/stewardess die so many hours after the crash, with an intact tail section of the plane, seat in place, exit door opened from inside, and the nurse/stewardess without any apparent crash-related injuries? Kelly something, I think? The dissenting Armed Forces of Pathology Institute pathologists have an excellent reputation in pathologist circles as well. Regardless, all the AFIP forensics experts are saying is that the investigation was botched, not that Ron Brown was murdered.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:18 - ID#31868)
aurator Last report I heard 2

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:19 - ID#255284)
3: Discontigous multiple selections
Like special guns used in Abbatoirs to kill cattle, they penetrate the skull at high velocity but are not projectile.

I hope you allow us to look at your Solar Activity research soon.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:21 - ID#28594)
Of Interest?

China was home to the first civilization in world history to develop paper money system, which was developed by merchants in response to the increasingly difficult task of trasporting large sums of metal coins. THEY AGREED TO ACCEPT SPECIALLY PREPARED PAPER SLIPS FROM ONE ANOTHER, AND TO REPLACE THE PAPER "VOUCHERS" WITH HARD CURRENCY WITHIN THREE YEARS for the convenience of being able to travel light. In the beginning, this paper money system was run by ten of the more successful merchants of the day, but in 100 A.D., the printing of paper money became a government-run operation.
Could modern China take a 'golden leaf' from the past?
Remember: JIN is TONIC!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:22 - ID#31868)
shlomo and kmtman this is from a 96 article
Is Deflation Possible?

The world is currently undergoing changes that are similar in many ways to those characterizing the period leading up to the deflationary recession after 1887 and the 1920s which preceded the depression years. The threat of deflationary recession beginning sometime over the next six to nine months is higher that it has ever been since the late 1920s.

Defaltionary recessions tend to be extremely nasty and can last for a long time. Because the Asian economies ( ex Japan ) avoided the brief 1990 recession, many investors now believe that Asia ( ex Japan ) is immune to an economic contraction in the West. This is not our view. A deflationary recession would have very negative implications on growth in Asia. Slower growth of recessions would also lead to a less stable political environment

We doubt that monetary policies will be able to steer the global economy around a deflationary recession, largely because the damage has already been done.

Just as a hangover can only be avoided by not drinking to excess, a deflationary recession can only be avoided by implementing monetary policies which would prevent excessive credit creation and the boom in the first place. But once drunk, even a ton of Alka-Seltzer cannot prevent a hangover. At very best, it can only alleviate the pain. Similarly, once a boom has been created, a deflationary bust is inevitable.

If our deflationary scenario is correct, what are the investment implications? A deflationary recession promises catastrophic consequences for must of the corporate sector, as profits and asset values tend to collapse. Hence, deflationary recessions are not a happy time for shareholders.

A bull market in cash

A period of deflation would likely depress commodity prices, although less so that financial assets. Gold is also likely to outperform financial assets in a time of deflation, but whether this would happen because of a rise in its price or a relatively milder price decline than equities is open for discussion. In any event, a deflationary period is equal to a bull market in cash as its purchasing power increases. Clearly, investors who believe in a deflationary environment should have above average cash reserves on hand. And since cash is today by far the most unpopular and neglected asset ( so much so that it is no longer even considered an investment class ) , it should be very appealing to a contrarian.

In a deflationary environment, bonds are much more attractive than equities. The highest quality bonds significantly outperform lower quality bonds.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:24 - ID#335190)
Strad Master @ 12:17
Thanks for the information. Do you expect such a medical procedure will make a come back. "trefine" - "evil spirits" - "sick people" a great conspiracy would/could be make around this eh!

I posted the Ron Brown material, because I expect that the main street news, is pointing in the wrong direction, in regards to the XXXXGate issues. Things are not as they should be, just a gut feeling.

There is something being done to this Presidents' term, that makes no sense. The USofA President is a powerful office, yet, that power is balanced against all the business/corporate interests, and public special interests lobby groups.

DRUGS/Corporations/International Bankers/Religion/Debt/World Financials/Gold, and our attention is being directed towards his SEX practices & Deaths of his associates.

A lone gunman killed Kennedy Right! Were is John Dean of Watergate, the crooks are making big money, is John Dean?.

Mushrooms-R-Us and I am joining the "Know Nothing Party" : ) : ) : )

Thanks Take Care.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:25 - ID#31868)
Mr. G Khan, very, very early Mongolia has an excellent system of treebark specially prepared that represented gold.

Oh yeah, punishment for counterfeiting - death -

My kinda guy.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:26 - ID#372344)
@ Haggis, CIA out of closet?.....Ominus warnings from Russia over Iraq.....
I feel the era CIA covert overthrow of ttirants at will has been slowly ending, the natives have caught on, instead I believe they are using overt "means" such as the green light to Hussein to "take" Kuwait, and subsequent deployment of US troops in S. Arabia.....But I feel that this
move has more to do with keeping the US$ as the world reserve
currency thru control of Oil and currency price thereof , rather than
Oil itself, since the US gets all it's Oil from North America, in addition
in the past 5 years or so, there has been major advances and
development of the Canadian Tar Sands, which contain very large
reserves of Oil...BTW there is a similar vast Tar sands deposit in the US Mid-west, thus my conclusion re US motives in the area.....This should
give the US sufficient time to switch to "alternative" fuels.....

Russai's defence minister Sergiev met with US def. sec. Cohen in
Moscow, today with Sergiev browbeating Cohen on camera for about
8 minutes, warning of very serious consequences in General also
deterioration of US & Russian military co-operation if the US attacked
Iraq.....It sounds to me that the threat of Russia arming Iraq is real,
which would ante-up the stakes for the US either way, bomb or not,
and thus start the inevitable downfall of TOTAL US influence in
the region....Russia wants back in to it's historical role as a player in
that region, for obvious reasons......

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:27 - ID#255284)
Bugs. Windscreens, you've heard it before....
4: discontiguous short text.

Discontiguous multiple selections. Check boxes are not sticky. On clicking Submit, only current check box still checked, earlier ones clear, but display is discontiguous. Looks like similar behaviour when submit a comment.


Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:29 - ID#26395)
New Format
The viewing options are arranged so that you can view up to an entire day at a time in "full text" mode. But like I've mentioned before the bandwidth costs are beyond what we're willing to finance and so "full text" mode will soon be an option that users will have to pay for. Consider the next few days a free trial.

The space to the right of the viewing options box will be used to display banner ads. I don't suppose there's anyone reading who might be interested in actually doing some REAL advertising? Let me know -

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:29 - ID#26793)
Dollar predicted to fall to 118 yen

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:31 - ID#255284)
5: uncheck all boxes, short text
Do a comment, short text, but with a ( any? ) check-box checked, you get long text.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:32 - ID#26793)
Congressmen want to link IMF bailout to campaign funding by foreigners

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:34 - ID#330175)
Thankx for the up to date post on the crisis in Asia!

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:37 - ID#26395)
aurator - initiating test ...

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:39 - ID#26793)
Agriculture Secretary claims IMF bailout is really U.S. farm bailout

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:42 - ID#238295)
shakeout coming
April gold now off $1.30 and gold stock volume drying up. Looks bad for the immediate future.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:43 - ID#26793)
Russian currency placed on Rating Watch Negative; banks may be next

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:46 - ID#280215)
BART or Anyone!!! Help!
By the way, I like the short form. Much faster. This was the way it was last year when I first started lurking.

However, I'm having a problem. When I click on more words it puts me into the longer text as it should. However, when I go BACK, it puts me back to the beginning of the forum and not back to the message where I originally clicked. Is this a problem with my browser ( INt Explorer 3.0 ) , the new format, or am I doing something wrong. Any assistance would be appreciated. Thanks!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:47 - ID#26793)
7000 Turkish troops cross into Iraq to prevent Iraq bombing exodus

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:49 - ID#255284)
6: short Text; one check box
Looks like your preference ( checked boxes ) entered when you Add a commnet stick when you later submit


All those intrested in holes in the head should read of Phineas Gagae

Phineas Gage was the foreman of a railway construction gang working for the contractors
preparing the bed for the Rutland and Burlington Rail Road when, on 13th September, 1848, an
accidental explosion of a charge he had set blew his tamping iron through his head. The tamping
iron ( pictured above ) was 3 feet 7 inches long, weighed 13 1/2 pounds, and was 1 1/4 inches in
diameter at one end, tapering over a distance of about 1 foot to a diameter of 1/4 inch at the other

The tamping iron went in point first under his left cheek bone and out through the top of his head,
landing about 25 to 30 yards behind him. Phineas was knocked over but may not have lost
consciousness even though most of the front part of the left side of his brain was destroyed. He was
treated by Dr. Harlow, the Cavendish physician, with such success that Gage returned home to
Lebanon, New Hampshire 10 weeks later.

THe Phineas Gage Sesqui is exactly the same date as the end of the world.

Back to gold.......

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:50 - ID#333232)
miscellaneous-before I have to pay :(
Trinovant: RE Your 19:44 02/11/1998
Translations are a b....!

Here's the originals:
Les citoyens de Mesopotamie
Yrs encontre amis de Tarraconne
Jeux, ritz, banquetz, toute gent endormie
Vicaire au Rosne, prins cit, ceux d'Ausone

Au lieu que HIERON feit sa nief fabriquer,
Si grand deluge sera & si subite
Qu'on n'aura lieu ne terres s'attaquer
L'onde monter Fesulan Olympique

As near as I can discern, your '83 book is *very* liberal in translation. ; )

Many thanks!
( I've always been told to *not* disturb a somnambulist - what to do? )

All: Guess the artist quiz:
1. "Red is grey and yellow, white. But we decide which is right, and which is...illusion"
2. "There ain't no devil, it's just God when he's drunk"
3. "There's something happenin' here. What it is ain't exactly clear..."

My bets:
GOLD POG *appears* ( based on my simple analyses ) to be poised to slide between 3 and 8% for the short term - 2 to three weeks. But that's moot 'cause I'm not sellin', I will be ready to buy more.
Warning! as some would say, I am a "Know nothing" small-timer so caveats *really* apply ( nobody asked anyway ) .

Just for the Record in US$ terms:
1995 GOLD trades = gain 15.65%
1996 GOLD trades = gain 18.03%
1997 GOLD trades = loss -6.39%
1998 GOLD trades = gain 15.01%

A question: Does "mortgage" really mean "measure of death"?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:50 - ID#187218)
I'm sorry I could not be apart of your discussion with tolerant1 since yesterday BUT I was placing new_mush into the heads of students with minds full of mush. Just getting caught up on posts since yesterday.

Re: your 11 Feb 17:50 post:

I'm not sure what your point is here. You mentioned Leonard Read and the Champber of Commerce then you proceed to describe some event happening in 1933 ? Could you explain briefly the correlation.

In reference to FEE-,,,,The Foundation was established in 1946 "for the purpose of explaining the philosophy of the free market, private property, and limited government".

FEE, unlike Perot's "We The People", is based on a philosophy NOT of a single individual, rather; many scholars. They feature books, seminars, and discussion around such indivualS as Any Rand, Thomas Jefferson, Hans Sennholz, Bohm-Bawerk, Carl Menger, Ludwig von Mises, Bastiat, Milton Friedman, Hayek, ....... etc.

Personally, I read everything I can get my hands on despite my agreement/disagreement. Amongst other things, my legal training provided me the insight to take a ( personally ) contrary position and defend its premise. Hard to do at first but it helps one think clearly about your own beliefs and positions.

I suspect your post is to imply that Mr. Read should have taken a position 13 years prior to forming FEE and because of this FEE is completely flawed. The reality is FEE was formed in an effort to understand the "Flawless" Constitution that Mr. Jefferson had penned and have numerous authors contribute toward its further understanding.

Your URL's have been very informative and have learned much although there are some elements with which I disagree.

SO,,,, I suggest we learn from each other and develop arguments to further convince those not in our camp that it is the place to be. I do appreciate your frustration with some elements of society getting to the truth,,, I share this frustration,,,,,BUT -,,,let's not fiddle while Rome burns...


(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:51 - ID#187218)
May I belatedly submit your 11 Feb 20:45 post to be the post of yesterday.

Great Job !!!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:53 - ID#57232)
Solar Research, Internet providers.
Aurator: I think my cost conscious Internet service provider ATT has been sending my communications through rather dubious circuitous routes, as I have tried numerous times to e-mail graphical material with Netscape V2, and now with Netscape V4.03. Used to be able to do this, but now I get logged off with terminal ( like in finished ) lockup whenever I do this. Lose a few files off my hard disk every time this happens. Talking to ATT is fruitless -- like talking to the IRS.

What drives me nuts is that I can download graphics fine -- just can't upload.

I have Windows 95 installed on one Computer at home -- wil try that combination too if I get the chance -- but apparently same limited dialer options. Do you use a special dialer or winsock to optimize conections?

All: Please give me a USA substitute for ATT ISP. I would like something large and fast ( that doesn't log me off during graphics uploads ) . Not ready yet for ISDN -- can't afford it.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:53 - ID#410198)
Here's a personal case for gold from a former African white guy
Those in South Africa who saw the coming hand over to the commies bought gold in droves in 1985, at the time gold was trading for $300.00 in local currancy Rands it cost R585.00, today the price in Rands is R1,476.00,yet the price in dollars is still the same,gold is not an investment it is insurance against corrupt governments.HUMBA GASHLY

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:54 - ID#252127)
Donald_A 13:39

Better the Government use its "phantom surplus" to buy that food to feed the unemployed Americans made homeless by those cheap goods. Some made by slave labor and brought to you by competetive devaluations.
Who gets rich, those bastard Americans who locate their plants on foreing soil to the detriment of their own countrymen.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:54 - ID#254269)
Changes, changes, changes ! ! ! Boy, you leave here for a few hours and

all sorts of funny things happen. not sure what I thik of this new format yet. have to think about it.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:56 - ID#20748)
Old Gold
To the contrary, low volume in gold stocks on a day like this is a good sign. Shows share holders are reluctant to sell.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 13:58 - ID#31868)

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:00 - ID#257136)
Short text preferred. Makes it simpler to scroll by the A ( Anii) to Z ( Ziva ) stuf.
Thanks for your consideration.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:01 - ID#28593)
Trinovant--for " Quarter Stater of Tasciovanus" my thanks.
Some of these coins are incredibly beautiful! Thank you again
for the worthwhile addition!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:01 - ID#288399)
Thank you for your post. It was instructive. Have read updated "Great Reckoning", but will have to go to basement and pull it off shelf again -- seems I have forgotten alot! Thanks.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:03 - ID#254276)
Please, let the Russian Bear Hibernate!

Just in from Europe:

denied allegations in the "Washington Post" on 12 February that Russia has sold to Iraq equipment that could be used for producing biological weapons,Interfax reported. "Ministry sources" are quoted as saying that the Russian government has concluded no agreements with Iraq and that there have been no deliveries. The sources added this is "another attempt to shift the blame from the guilty to the innocent." The "Washington Post" reported that Russia signed a contract to deliver a 5,000-liter fermentation vat that is ostensibly for manufacturing animal feed but has the potential to produce biological weapons.

RUSSIAN PLANE LANDS IN BAGHDAD. The Russian airplane carrying State Duma
deputies and humanitarian aid finally landed in Baghdad on 11 February. On board were 12 tons of food and medical aid as well as seven Duma deputies, 15 journalists, and personnel to unload the cargo. Before the plane's departure from Yerevan, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, attempted to bring more than the 30 people approved by the Duma on to the airplane. Russian Ambassador to Armenia Andrei Urnov intervened, and a heated discussion broke out. Urnov denied, however, that Zhirinovsky hit him in the face, as some media reported. According to other reports, Zhirinovsky threw around drinking glasses in the airport lobby.

U.S. SECRETARY OF DEFENSE IN MOSCOW. William Cohen, who arrived in Moscow
on 12 February, said his visit is not aimed at persuading the Russians "to come around to the U.S. position" on the Iraqi situation. Cohen said that his focus is the reduction of nuclear arms but that "if Iraq comes up, I will certainly make our position as clear as possible."

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:04 - ID#273368)
( nj ) look here: he explains when to hold em and when to fold em.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:06 - ID#238295)
NJ: Hope you are right, but I don't think so. Depressed gold stock volume in my experience has usually meant that lower prices were on the way. Gold stock volume dried up last summer, for example, and that was soon followed by a horrendous massacre in the fall. I do not anticipate anything like that now, but further price erosion is a good bet in the days ahead if volume remains low.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:11 - ID#273368)
Whats up?:

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:11 - ID#255284)
Buy a Mac---
Perhaps you could forward them to someone else for posting?

must away to bug-test more software...

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:14 - ID#273368)
To All:
Bad url look up aeo on TSE, something is brewwing in this one.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:18 - ID#20748)
Russian Bear Growl
Heard on CNBC. Any bombing of Iraq will adversely affect US-Russia relations. Defense Secretary Cohen informed by Russian counterpart.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:22 - ID#65207)
Here WAS the TIME when nobody,NOBODY,even thought to give me a word on my THOUGHTS.

Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:37
Oliver ( War... ) ID#65207:
For a change in today`s ounces and tons..

Foods fo thoughts:

Wars and the threat of war are

seen as

evidence that capitalism's only way of continuing to exist is by destruction, it


suggested that if it can not save itself by other methods capitalism will plunge


into a war.

For most versions of the theory the change from mature to declining
capitalism is

saidto have occurred at a time around the First World War. The present form

capitalism is then characterised by declining or decaying features. Features

identified with this change are the shift from laissez faire to monopoly

the dominance of finance capital, the increase in state planning, war
production and

imperialism. Monopoly capitalism indicates the growth of monopolies, cartels

the concentration of capital which has now reached the point of giant

disposing of more wealth than small countries. At the same time in the

of finance capital, large amounts of capital are seen to escape linkage to

labour processes and to move about in search of short term profits. In the

in state planning the state becomes interpenetrated with the monopolies in

ways such as nationalisation and defence spending - this is capital getting

This planning is the state trying to regulate the workings of capitalism in the

interests of the big firms/monopolies. Statification is seen as evidence of decay

because it shows the objective socialisation of the economy snarling at the bit

capitalist appropriation; it is seen as capitalism in the age of its decline

trying to maintain itself by socialistic methods. The state spending and

is seen as a doomed attempt to avert crises which constantly threaten the

War production is a particularly destructive form of state spending, where

amounts of the economy are seen to be taken up by essentially unproductive

expenditure. This is closely related to imperialism which is seen as the

of capitalism in the age of its decline. The 'epoch' is in fact said to be initiated

the division of the world between the great powers who have since fought two

world wars to redistribute the world market. Wars and the threat of war are
seen as

evidence that capitalism's only way of continuing to exist is by destruction, it

suggested that if it can not save itself by other methods capitalism will plunge

into a war.

Return to Kitco Homepage

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:23 - ID#20748)
Russian Bear

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:30 - ID#28593)
Tolerant1@My.Kind.of.Guy Mine too! {:- ) FT Monday "Personal View--Dominique Moisi ( no unlaut, sorry ) Of Davos, "It was no coincidence that Hillary Clinton, 'the first lady of the global world'..." AAAAAHgUmpAAgag I'm trying, truly...but "First Lady of the Global World? It is too much JTF! I'm slipping back into miasma of frustration and niggling anger! Out to the garden, quick!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:36 - ID#270315)

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:36 - ID#401460)

Are you talking about Bill Gates - Buy a MAC!


(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:36 - ID#31868)
The problem you had posting was that you were in a frame, so when you posted the correct address it was for the outerframe as opposed to the quote you were looking at.

It took me forever to figure out.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:38 - ID#254269)
Hillary joke; (no offense intended to anyone).

Talking to a friend this morning. He told me, I am just repeating it.

Question; What is the definition of a Bitch

Answer; Bill's In Trouble Call Hillary.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:44 - ID#270315)
Thanks I'll be sure to correct that the next time I post, because I am a firm believer that time is money, and I don't want to waste yours, or mine.

Chow for now

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:46 - ID#31868)
I forgot to mention The Soverign Individual by Davidson and Mogg as well. An excellent book in my NOT SO humble opinion. I loved the book.

If you missed some of the posts yesterday go to the site, then click on the left on Soverign Individual - tons more info but the book is listed there as well.

Glad I could help with the previous.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:47 - ID#270315)
(tolerant1) try this one;

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:49 - ID#31868)
Forgot to mention, once you click on Soverign Individual look to your right - you will see RELATED LINKS click the link right under that heading and you will find a review of The Soverign Indivudal.

Happy Hunting.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:54 - ID#287358)

xau up .36. Execellent action for buying a dip

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:55 - ID#31868)
The Coaward Elect goes out for a morning jog around the White House. On the way back up the driveway he notices that his name has been written in pee in the snow.

Rather flustered he bursts into the Oval Office and demands that security finds out who would do such a thing right there on the front lawn of the White House.

About a half hour later the head of security comes in and says he has some good news and some bad news.

Well!!! says the Coward elect.

The good news is we know who did it. It was Al Gore.

Al, Al, no s_it!

Whats the bad news?

Well, ah, was in Hillary's handwriting.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:58 - ID#401460)
AG & Asia IMF $$$$$$$$$$
Thursday February 12, 2:21 pm Eastern Time

Greenspan repeats warning of Asia crisis spreading
``I should like to stress that the significant degree of volatility that continues to exist in Asian markets indicates exceptionally high levels of uncertainty, bordering on panic. It is not reasonable to expect that the substantial investments needed to implement meaningful structural reforms can proceed very far until we observe a simmering down of frenetic changes in asset prices and exchange rates,'' he said.


(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:58 - ID#270315)
To All:
Want to see some Candian Institutional trading frenzy? go here and type in quote for AEO ( tse )

(Thu Feb 12 1998 14:58 - ID#34883)
Oliver: 14:22 post
Thats the finest collection of Marxist junk I've seen in a while.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 15:04 - ID#238295)
the action
$XAU and $HUI now up a bit with the overall market despite $1.70 drop in bullion. Sharp declines Monday and Tuesday had discounted a $3 drop in bullion. But continued low volume troubles me. Unless it picks up soon, the path of least resistance will be down over the short term.

Crystal Ball
(Thu Feb 12 1998 15:12 - ID#287367)
Am I the only one who senses a stock market blow-off here?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 15:14 - ID#286234)
This is an ISP buyer's guide for US and Canada

(Thu Feb 12 1998 15:16 - ID#334219)
The current environment reminds me a lot of February 1993. Gold stocks had bottomed in 1992, Gold was making its low...volumes were low and suddenly the whole thing started with the stocks tripling in 6 months.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 15:16 - ID#28585)
Thanks for the advice on Pegasus. Obviously, since you worked for those gents, you probably have a pretty good perspective on the micro workings of the company...especially Mr. Nennecker. He should have listened to your advice re: Mt. Todd!!

On the other hand, I am fairly conversant with the macro side of bankruptcy work-outs. I don't feel quite as gloomy about PGU as you...especially trading at .50 cents ( I bought in around that price from square one anyway ) . Ultimately, it seems that if they can get the Mt. Todd debt excused ( and I see no reason why not ) , then it's all upside from there...provided the POG rises to at least 350 or up.

If the banks simply want to cut off their noses to spite their faces, then I suppose the company is sunk.

Do you think the banks are that insane with anger???

What are your comments, my sage Scottish friend from Ozziestralia?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 15:19 - ID#254269)
Serious comment re Hillary; I read robnoel's earlier post about Dick Morris and

while his integrity is non-existent and somewhat doubtful ( big time understatement ! ! ! ) , he is probably right in that she is running the White House. Someone posted here several weeks ago, that if it was just B.C., then he might "disappear into the night" but unfortunately she is the power behind the throne and she will never go. I guess the question for the prosecutors is how do you impeach the President's wife who is not an elected official and not accountable to anyone ? I am afraid that they all make me absolutely sick when you understand what they have been doing.
The editorial in today's WSJ is really interesting reading and I recommend it to everyone.

Crystal Ball
(Thu Feb 12 1998 15:20 - ID#287367)
Bonds, Bills, etc
After being up in price most of the day, the 30 year bond futures USH8, ten year note futures ( TYH8 ) , and TBill futures ( TBH8 ) closed lower. Did the last leg of the T-Bond auction go poorly?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 15:22 - ID#238295)
CC: Agree that we are going top get a big upmove before long. But we will need to see heavy volume before that happens. As long as gold stock volume remains depressed another significant shakeout before the big up is a good bet.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 15:37 - ID#252127)
What has become of WW, haven't seen a WW post in ages

(Thu Feb 12 1998 15:37 - ID#410198)
RE:Hillary in control:

(Thu Feb 12 1998 15:40 - ID#287358)
old gold

I took the low volume as a posivte on the downside. It looked like a nice little reversal around key support levels.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 15:42 - ID#287358)
old gold

I took the low volume as a posivte on the downside. It looked like a nice little reversal around key support levels.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 15:42 - ID#287358)
old gold

I took the low volume as a posivte on the downside. It looked like a nice little reversal around key support levels.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 15:43 - ID#287358)
old gold

I took the low volume as a posivte on the downside. It looked like a nice little reversal around key support levels.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 15:48 - ID#65207)
Mole & HighRise
Please understand me,
I am nothing else than a CAPITALIST.
All I want to say is that we do not need a war and kill at large.

I want Saddam DEAD, D.E.A.D.,... and the Bath Party in Iraq vaporized.They are Crimininals as worse as the NAZIS. IT is perfectly CLEAR.Period.

As a bunch of hypocrites or manipulated JOES whatever it could, I cannot understand that we are talking of " we do not assassinate head of state it is the LAW " or we do not execute re: SADDAM...While few days ago Texas when againts even the Pope and KILLS Karla Faye Tucker whom at the least seems to be repentent and did not use VX and Anthrax.

How,not only the USA but the world and all those Secret Services connot do a great service to the human kind, without killing innocent civilians.

Why do we need a war for that?
Did not intend to give you freinds a kick in the butt..
But I feel ready to do it on gold.


(Thu Feb 12 1998 15:53 - ID#254269)
Fed worried about Asia;

(Thu Feb 12 1998 16:10 - ID#254269)
Dow closed at 8370 (up another 55 points or 0.66%), S & P 500 closed at 1024 (up 4.13 points),
30 yr. bond at 5.876%. Volume on NYSE 613 million shares. NASDAQ volum at 771 million shares.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 16:26 - ID#238295)
Some realities of the Iraq situation that you will not find in the mainstream media. From the Progressive Review Online:

More than a million Iraqis, some 60% of them children under five years old,
have died as a result of the sanctions imposed by the UN under pressure from
the US. This may fairly defined as genocide.

American officials have offered no convincing explanation as to what an
attack on Iraq would accomplish other than the possible elimination of some
nuclear, biological or chemical facilities and the slight possibility that
Saddam Hussein might be killed.

Even if some facilities were destroyed and Hussein killed, however, American
officials have offered no convincing evidence that such actions would
significantly change the level of risk in the Middle East or the character
of the Iraqi government.

For example, such an attack would not in the slightest reduce the stockpiles
of high-hazard weapons in Iran, Libya, Syria or Israel. The attack on Iraq,
however, would increase the likelihood that these other stockpiles would be
used due to increased conflict in the region.

An attack on Iraq increases the likelihood that its high-hazard weaponry
will be used or that by-products of it will be released into the environment.

Fifty present and former Catholic bishops have called strongly on President
Clinton to end US support for the sanctions and to refrain from any military
action in the current dispute.

Attacks against nuclear, biological or chemical plants are a violation of
international law because of the danger they pose to civilian population.

Religious leaders in Iraq have urged the end of sanctions. For example,
Archbishop Gabriel Kassab of the southern region of Iraq has stated that "
epidemics rage, taking away infants and the sick by the thousands. Those
children who survive disease succumb to malnutrition . . . Our situation is
unbearable!. . . We appeal to people of conscience to work to end the
blockade of Iraq."

Only about half of the money received from oil sales under the sanction
rules is actually available to Iraq for food and medical supplies. These are
often subject to severe delays because of the bureaucratic complexities of
the process. A UNICEF report last fall found that the oil for food deal had
led to no visible improvement in the health and nutritional status of most
Iraqis. More recently it has said that increasing the sale of oil for food
would only allow the Iraqis a diet 60% of the caloric intake of Americans.

The punishment the US has inflicted on Iraq exceeds that levied against
Germany or Japan after World War II.

Foreign policy analyst Bill Blum points out that many of the biological
materials in Iraq's possession came from US private suppliers in the 1980s
that had been licensed by the US Department of Commerce. These materials
included those necessary for the preparation of anthrax and botulinum toxin.
According to a Senate committee report in 1994, "It was later learned that
these microorganisms exported by the United States were identical to those
the United Nations inspectors found and removed from the Iraqi biological
warfare program."

Blum also notes that Iraq is considered a "rogue" or "outlaw" state for
having ignored a US Security Council resolution. The United States, however,
ignored without sanction a World Court ruling against our war in Nicaragua
and numerous General Assembly resolutions. Israel has also ignored Security
Council resolutions without been bombed, sanctioned or declared an "outlaw

In January, the UN coordinator of humanitarian aid, reported that Iraq would
need about $30 billion a year to meet its current requirements for food,
medicine, and infrastructure.

Chemical and biological weapons are the arsenal of the weak. They can be
manufactured relatively cheaply and are virtually impossible to eliminate

WORD . . .

Leslie Stahl, on 60 Minutes, May 1996: "We have heard that a half-million
children have died. I mean that's more children than died in Hiroshima. And
-- and you know -- is the price worth it?"
Madeleine Albright: "I think this is a very hard choice, but the price -- we
think the price is worth it."

(Thu Feb 12 1998 16:27 - ID#17155)
Oliver: I want Saddam DEAD, D.E.A.D.,... and the Bath Party in Iraq vaporized.
I am afraid you do not understand reality of a situation. Let me give you a couple of points here to think about:

1. Iraqis have as much right to be led by a lunatic as Americans or Israelis do.
2. It is just as easy for Iraqis to assassinate Clinton as it is for US to assassinate Hussein.
3. Many countries around the world feel that Clinton is a perverted, brain-dead creep. Should they act on their instincts too?!
4. US has been displeased with election of Netanyahoo as the Israeli PM. Many people ( including American Jews ) feel that Netanyahoo is trouble and will cause many deaths. Should US assassinate him too?
5. Assassinating a troublesome "leader" is always a kind of supreme insult fired at people of a country. It causes a "national crises" in which a craziest, most conflict oriented, military type character takes charge. If a western power were to assassinate Yeltsin, you can bet all your gold coins that Zerenovsky would take his place.
6. If it comes to amassing weapons of mass destruction and propagating them around the world, US is by far the worst offender. Don't you think that this fact combined with irresponsibility of US electorate is dangerous too?! US has, after all, elected and re-elected Clinton in spite of all heavy problems such as selling US out to the Chinese for a couple of re-election bucks.


(Thu Feb 12 1998 16:27 - ID#238295)
Some realities of the Iraq situation that you will not find in the mainstream media. From the Progressive Review Online:

More than a million Iraqis, some 60% of them children under five years old,
have died as a result of the sanctions imposed by the UN under pressure from
the US. This may fairly defined as genocide.

American officials have offered no convincing explanation as to what an
attack on Iraq would accomplish other than the possible elimination of some
nuclear, biological or chemical facilities and the slight possibility that
Saddam Hussein might be killed.

Even if some facilities were destroyed and Hussein killed, however, American
officials have offered no convincing evidence that such actions would
significantly change the level of risk in the Middle East or the character
of the Iraqi government.

For example, such an attack would not in the slightest reduce the stockpiles
of high-hazard weapons in Iran, Libya, Syria or Israel. The attack on Iraq,
however, would increase the likelihood that these other stockpiles would be
used due to increased conflict in the region.

An attack on Iraq increases the likelihood that its high-hazard weaponry
will be used or that by-products of it will be released into the environment.

Fifty present and former Catholic bishops have called strongly on President
Clinton to end US support for the sanctions and to refrain from any military
action in the current dispute.

Attacks against nuclear, biological or chemical plants are a violation of
international law because of the danger they pose to civilian population.

Religious leaders in Iraq have urged the end of sanctions. For example,
Archbishop Gabriel Kassab of the southern region of Iraq has stated that "
epidemics rage, taking away infants and the sick by the thousands. Those
children who survive disease succumb to malnutrition . . . Our situation is
unbearable!. . . We appeal to people of conscience to work to end the
blockade of Iraq."

Only about half of the money received from oil sales under the sanction
rules is actually available to Iraq for food and medical supplies. These are
often subject to severe delays because of the bureaucratic complexities of
the process. A UNICEF report last fall found that the oil for food deal had
led to no visible improvement in the health and nutritional status of most
Iraqis. More recently it has said that increasing the sale of oil for food
would only allow the Iraqis a diet 60% of the caloric intake of Americans.

The punishment the US has inflicted on Iraq exceeds that levied against
Germany or Japan after World War II.

Foreign policy analyst Bill Blum points out that many of the biological
materials in Iraq's possession came from US private suppliers in the 1980s
that had been licensed by the US Department of Commerce. These materials
included those necessary for the preparation of anthrax and botulinum toxin.
According to a Senate committee report in 1994, "It was later learned that
these microorganisms exported by the United States were identical to those
the United Nations inspectors found and removed from the Iraqi biological
warfare program."

Blum also notes that Iraq is considered a "rogue" or "outlaw" state for
having ignored a US Security Council resolution. The United States, however,
ignored without sanction a World Court ruling against our war in Nicaragua
and numerous General Assembly resolutions. Israel has also ignored Security
Council resolutions without been bombed, sanctioned or declared an "outlaw

In January, the UN coordinator of humanitarian aid, reported that Iraq would
need about $30 billion a year to meet its current requirements for food,
medicine, and infrastructure.

Chemical and biological weapons are the arsenal of the weak. They can be
manufactured relatively cheaply and are virtually impossible to eliminate

WORD . . .

Leslie Stahl, on 60 Minutes, May 1996: "We have heard that a half-million
children have died. I mean that's more children than died in Hiroshima. And
-- and you know -- is the price worth it?"
Madeleine Albright: "I think this is a very hard choice, but the price -- we
think the price is worth it."

(Thu Feb 12 1998 16:43 - ID#217268)
Great Site
Hey, thanks Bart for the great site. It's easy to get wrapped up in detail as we all try to understand the elephant. Keepin' it short today ... hope to provide a joke soon.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:03 - ID#248180)
@ Petronis & Old Gold - 16:27
Intelligent and very well stated. Thank you.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:04 - ID#270315)
whoomp1 here it is!!!!!!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:05 - ID#410194)
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after trading today:

Gold: Unchanged at 427,584

Silver: Plunged 2,584,120 ( ! ) troy ounces to 92,817,481 -A new 15 year low

I don't know if we should find the Silver situation dramatic or funny? ( Well all right, Merryl Linch and Armstrong are not laughing... )

About 8 million ounces have been withdrawn from the warehouses in 3 days only this week and we have to go back very far in time to find these kinds of severe and quick withdrawals.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:05 - ID#20748)
All those beating the war drums
Please read the post of Old Gold and take heed of Saudi Arabian refusal to allow the use of bases in their land for an attack on Iraq and today's none too veiled threat of retaliation by Russia.

Heavy Hitter
(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:06 - ID#403159)
Physical demand is extremely high at
anything under $300 gold. The midas
has seen bottom at $280. A large sell
off is not going to come anytime soon.
Good investing and go gold. ( not too
high ) .

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:09 - ID#20748)
War Drums
China too is opposed to a unilateral bombing attack in Iraq.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:11 - ID#254269)
Old Gold and Petronius; Great Posts. Now that you mention it; has anyone discussed the possibility of lifting the sanctions in exchange for
Saddam stepping down and full inspection of his sites ? I don't believe I have seen that discussed anywhere .

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:13 - ID#359316)
SDRer__A {14:01} & cmh {13:50}
SDRer__A: You are most welcome! incidentally did you go up to
where there is also:
A silver Denarius of Antoninus Pius
A copper alloy Sestertius of Titus

cmh: translations are a problem, learning Old French a bigger problem
but thanks for the originals.

'A forbyseyn ys told ys, seyde on Frenshe men and on Englys, "That frenche men synne yn lecherye, And Englys men yn enuye." '

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:17 - ID#270315)
You forgot to mention that in % terms the drawdown of Gold stocks from the comex wharehouses has been far more severe than that of silver 77% to be exact. Peter Munk will explain more on the subject at the following url:

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:23 - ID#65207)
Petronius more simple answer is because Saddam is not in a jail in Hunstville Texas
Out of here subpeonaed by Ken!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:31 - ID#65207)
Petronius here is a more simple and honest answer: Saddam is not in a jail in Hunstville Texas

Major Noriega Panama hand..

You are right OLD GOLD.Thanks.

Out of here subpoenaed by Ken!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:41 - ID#65207)
Petronius here is a more simple and honnest answer: Saddam is not in a jail in Hunstville Texas

Major Norriega of Panama hand..

You are right OLD GOLD.Thanks.

Out of here subpoenaed by Ken!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:41 - ID#403277)
Oil Sands
Tzadeak: The Canadian oil sands are booming now, but it took thirty years of losses and Govt. subsidies to make it work. The deposits in Western USA are bituminous shales. Not nearly so rich nor so easily extracted. Economical exploitation is still a long way down the road. Such deposits exist in the far north of Canada as well.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:41 - ID#410194)
You're right, he's right....but it's old news and the reason that the Gold inventory drop didn't have the spectacular effect as in Silver it's because of the Central Banks and you know the rest.

One of those days though...

Charles Keeling
(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:41 - ID#344225)
@ ALL RE: Double Posting
I have noticed that you will get a double
post when you hit the back button too early.

After you post, you get a screen that says
Please Wait. If you hit the back button
a couple of times you may get a triple post.

By being patient and Waiting as directed,
you can prevent a double or triple post. It
is a little bug, but patience can overcome it.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:41 - ID#28585)
What do you think???

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:42 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.01 ( This is not a new high )

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:42 - ID#372344)
@ SA Durban Deep to stop Gold Production at Stillfontein...Mineworkers threaten strikes over
retrenchments in SA Gold Mines.....

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:45 - ID#201131)
TVX lifts its gold hedge cuz the fax says so but they are si troubled
Just got a fax from TVX after the close indicating they have covered all of their gold forward sales and call options. This is good. The bad news is they are still screwing around in their silver hedging portfolio and are trying to trade their way out of this mess. It is interesting to see that they are buying out of the money silver calls while selling in the money silver calls. The bottom line is they know they are still naked on the silver calls but less so than before. The official reason for the covering of the silver calls is that Warren buffet changed the dynamics of the market. The truth is they are gambling and lost the bet. Shame on them

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:45 - ID#65207)
Petronius here is a more simple and honnest answer: Saddam is not in a jail in Hunstville Texas

Major Norriega of Panama hand..

You are right OLD GOLD Childrens genocides.Thanks.

Out of here subpoenaed by Ken!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:47 - ID#270315)
(Heavy Hitter!)

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:52 - ID#28585)
WB about to hold his annual shareholders' meeting...SSC about to begin a PR blitz next week...holding the largest unhedged supply of silver in the world...

SSC is already worth at least 3 billion ( the market just hasn't figured it out yet ) .

Floor price: $3.00

Possible spec. price...$5.00.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:55 - ID#17155)
Oliver's Simple Answer
VERY unfortunately, the so called "leaders" of the world have instituted immunity for themselves for whatever they do. Yes, common people are put to death much more often than politicians, even though the later are always MUCH, MUCH bigger criminals. Recent US law, for example, provides UNLIMITED, UNCONDITIONAL immunity from prosecution and responsibility for US politicians and governmental employees' "official actions." Therefore, no matter how many people die, get crippled, etc. as a result of INSANE governmental actions, it is O.K. The government may choose to chastise itself ( if it pleases ) , but it cannot be forced to do so!

US was the only healthy coutry in the world, with the Constitution limiting governmental excesses. Now ( Constitution gone ) , US government would have hard time ( in my book ) to prove that it is better than government of Iraq.

On another note, Russian General uses Lincoln's words to criticise US:

===In comments likely to be broadcast widely for maximum effect in Russia, Sergeyev cited the late U.S. president Abraham Lincoln, saying: "We remember his words -- that force is all-conquering but its victories are short-lived." ===

(Thu Feb 12 1998 17:58 - ID#372344)
@ Bundesbank's Tietmeyer says Asia Crisis top priority at G7 on Feb 23....

(Thu Feb 12 1998 18:04 - ID#302251)


You consistently refused to reply to my repeated posts
in the last two days regarding Oris.
In protest of your refusal to enforce your netiquette guidelines,
I am leaving this forum effective immediately.


Time is very short.
We are leaving to Israel Monday.
See you soon.


Mike Sheller:





*...............Enlighten the people generally,
and tyranny and oppressions of body and
mind will vanish like evil spirits at the dawn of day............*

Thomas Jefferson

-- Letter to P. S. Dupont de Nemours, Poplar Forest, April 24, 1816




(Thu Feb 12 1998 18:06 - ID#372344)
@ Rubin says (surptise) Indonesia in trouble.... South Korea progress?....

(Thu Feb 12 1998 18:06 - ID#254269)
Dow/gold ratio 30 day moving average is 27.09 ( a discount of .92 ounces or 0.32% to toay's read).

(Thu Feb 12 1998 18:16 - ID#26669)
Old Gold, Petronius, et al: flogging a dead horse
Let me add my 2 cents worth to the reasonable rebuttal to Oliver and other misguided souls who'd turn the mideast to a bloodbath. Nowhere, ever has the UN gained a single ounce of sovereignty. The fact is that the US has no legitimate right to continue meddling in Iraq's internal affairs and the UN has no right to meddle in anyone's affairs. Saying it does is the moral equivalant of saying that a coalition between the Crips, Bloods and Devil's Disciples should make rules for the government of Los Angeles to absurdity. The next step is to allow the UN to make rules for our own personal lives; when that comes gold will be ruled illegal.

I posted this link a couple of days ago for fun. I'll repost it today with the serious request that anyone who advocates unjust war should go to it and play with yourself, for you don't belong in adult company.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 18:16 - ID#344308)

tuesday after-noon.......the reflection in my eyes......may you be
moody, and blue...............!
the others for the others......

the paper-tiger has bolted from the mortuary.......beware....she is
not of this world. she takes-on new riders that were running astride
her for a sign of what to do.....even though the moon pales against
her white hide.....the peopleo have no fear......they have assurances
from their leader--klinton---steady as she goes.....the peopleo.....
they think they now know which way to go......poor, poor, peopleo.

they have been trapped long on paper......just as gold bears are trapped
short...........and.....time is short.....

klinton going did the greeny-weine-bay packers...
gold going to the moon.......soon.....don't sell the farm or
use anything other than RISK capital.........or money from raking
leaves, or mowing grass, or washing dishes.......where there is a will...
and options to limit risk.........there is a way.......TODAY----
take the first step........don't be afraid of the lawn-mower blade....
rather to be cut trying to grow higher than the rest, than to never
have ventured to quest for what 'seems' un-attainable!


(Thu Feb 12 1998 18:16 - ID#65207)
Sorry guys post have been truncated ,mutilated Iraq?
Go Gold!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 18:17 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .252

(Thu Feb 12 1998 18:18 - ID#344308)

here is the info from the finned-one-who-shares-----thanks-

(Thu Feb 12 1998 18:23 - ID#372344)
@ Rubin tells Japan to cut Balooning trade surplus....tries to take steam out of Yen vs US$

(Thu Feb 12 1998 18:26 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 42.45

(Thu Feb 12 1998 18:34 - ID#20748)
TVX action was very timely and they are to be complimented. A key sentence is that they had put together most of their gold and silver hedge position before September 1997, because they were bearish on both metals. They now believe the price of gold has bottomed outand that it "makes sense to cash out the gold position." They have now reduced their net exposure to silver calls to 22 million ounces.

They expect to realize a gain of $70 million cash from the restructuring of their hedge positions.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 18:39 - ID#339320)

"........beware of the paper-tiger, ....she is
not of this world.'


(Thu Feb 12 1998 18:45 - ID#65207)
Petronius here is a more simple and honnest answer: Saddam is not in a jail in Hunstville Texas

Major Norriega of Panama hand..

You are right OLD GOLD,.. Children genocide.Thanks.
But who,,, don`t care.. as we did not care when the rebels anti-Saddam in Northern Iraq where ready to throw him out and ,... USA evaporated..and they have been let-down on the sands.
This last affirmation had been truncaded out of my last post.HOW?

Thursday February 12 3:11 PM EST

Gold settles lower

Gold still dull in Europe, silver and PGMs firmer

(Thu Feb 12 1998 18:46 - ID#224151)
This Dow Bull seems destined to die of exhaution. Current Wall street euphoria in
marked and obscene contrast to the riots, strikes, strikes, falling markets and currencies
in Southeast Asia as frenzied N.American investors dance around another Dow erection.
Predict many to be screwed in this historic Market orgy.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 18:52 - ID#31868)
The USA leadership is not only inept, it is arrogant. IMHO the Japanese will pull the plug and then it will be look out below. The USA the single largest debtor nation can only shoot its mouth off so long at the single biggest creditor nation on the planet. Throw in a dash of ethnic tension and geographical proximity and voila.

Whooooooooooooooooooosh, the air goes out of the bubble.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 18:53 - ID#210114)
'Irrational Exhuberance'
I too am concerned at the Dow's 'erection'. Can't last forever though in a global economy. It may indeed fall to 'Asian interuptus'.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 19:06 - ID#288155)
South China Morning Business Post--Fri Feb 12, 1998
Attacks on rupiah peg escalate
Opposition to Indonesia's proposal to peg the rupiah to the US dollar intensified yesterday with detractors describing the move as hasty, politically motivated and courting disaster. Full Story

(Thu Feb 12 1998 19:11 - ID#31868)
These people make me sick! I don't see them writing checks!!!
Carter and Ford back appeal for global role
By Hugo Gurdon in Washington

US foreign policy around the World - US State Department

FORMER presidents Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford joined 137 senior government figures and business leaders yesterday to bewail America's "dangerous drift toward disengagement from the responsibilities of global leadership".

In an open letter to Congress across a double-page spread in the New York Times and Washington Post, they said: "Modern isolationism seriously damages American interests." The message, under the title "A Time for American Leadership on Key Global Issues", is intended to be an urgent wake-up call to those who signatories believe are sacrificing American influence abroad.

Among the 139 who agreed to join the plea are Henry Kissinger, Alexander Haig, Warren Christopher and Cyrus Vance, all former secretaries of state, and former defence secretaries Harold Brown and Frank Carlucci. Philip Condit, chairman of Boeing; George Fisher, chairman of Kodak, and John Smith, chairman of General Motors, were among business leaders signing.

Their message comes at a time of bitter dispute on Capitol Hill about America's international role. Senator Jesse Helms called yesterday for a high-level summit, including President Clinton, to break Washington's stalemate about dealing with Asia's financial crisis.

With the Cold War over, Republicans controlling Congress, and scepticism growing about the merits of multilateral organisations such as the United Nations and International Monetary Fund, America appears less committed to its superpower role than for two generations past.

And the domestic culture war - particularly over abortion - is spilling into international relations.

Christopher Smith, a New Jersey Republican, plans to attach an amendment restricting funding of international organisations which support abortion to legislation providing $18 billion ( 11 billion ) to help refinance the IMF.

He did the same thing to legislation in the House of Representatives last year which would have reorganised the State Department and paid $819 million in American arrears to the United Nations.

Mr Clinton, a supporter of abortion, refused in November to sign the law, and will do so again with any law containing the Smith amendments. America's failure to pay its UN dues led other member countries to ignore Washington's pleas for reform and for a cut in its share of the bills.

Democrats and a handful of Republicans also voted in November to refuse Mr Clinton authority to make new foreign trade agreements - a power exercised by presidents since the 1970s. Internationalists fear that Republican suspicion that international institutions are eroding national sovereignty, and Democratic dislike of free trade, are pushing America toward disengagement.

In their letter, the signatories ask for four immediate steps to be taken. They want America to help refinance the IMF, pay its dues to the UN, grant the President "fast track" authority to negotiate trade agreements, and preserve the Treasury's right to make international loans. The Asian crisis is already posing political and security threats to America, the signatories say, urging Washington to take action to shore up the region's economies if it is to avoid a $300 billion trade deficit.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 19:22 - ID#93232)
They seek to impose a global moratorium on truth and accountability...they must now fall as prey to the golden sword of justice.

The Hermit
(Thu Feb 12 1998 19:22 - ID#374232)
@ tolerant1
Please allow me to express my gratitude for the posting of the site in your 14:46 and prior posts. This is a most interesting site!

A special thank you for your prior directions to their posting of the White Paper on State Citizenship. This is truly an enlightening paper.

The more one reads and studies the more one comes to the conclusion that the history we have been taught during the 20th century is not true history.

Again, my grateful THANK YOU!


The Hermit

(Thu Feb 12 1998 19:28 - ID#344308)

c-max-------not of this world refers to normal cyclical
events......expansion and contraction.....the current
expansion has been quite un-natural......

i'm not saying the paper-tiger is an alien space-ship
picking-up peopleo.......

c'mon....where's hale-bopp?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 19:29 - ID#288155)
The first, small step on the long journey?
Hong Kong Standard Business, Fri Feb 13, 1998

**United** Asean front urged to soften IMF
Crisis-hit Southeast Asian economies should deal with the International Monetary Fund collectively to ease stringent loan conditions as they battle the regional financial turmoil, the newly appointed Philippine finance chief said on Thursday.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 19:40 - ID#330175)
JACK(15:37) Snap out of it --------WW is--------------

(Thu Feb 12 1998 19:41 - ID#93232)
The golden sword of justice.....
shall swiftly sever the sacrilege's scrotum and salivation-seeking serpent. Swish!!!...

(Thu Feb 12 1998 19:42 - ID#345268)
Continued weakness of Gold

Lets face it. For 3 months now gold has been weak and my thoughts of the subject are:

By now gold deliveries should have overcome the derivatives game. If indeed demand is significantly exceeding supply, then this should be reflected in the market with rising prices. This is not happening and I question that the weakness in gold is due to short selling, or other manipulation, at least at this point.

If manipulation still exists, then from where the extra gold is coming?
We have no more forward sales from mines or CBs. The only other source is kitty gold from SA, which was announced lately.

Could it be that although India and some Arab emirate increased imports, other countries are reducing imports because of smaller demand. "themissinglink" gave us a hint yesterday and his points are valid.

As there is no interest in gold stocks ( no upward price pressure ) equally overall interest in gold is less, specifically after the big dive.

From where is the extra supply coming to meet the "increased demand"? ( if there is increased demand. Who is selling? If we answer this question and relate it to the physical then we can get a better idea of when gold is going to move.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 19:42 - ID#237149)
Silver to go high anytime
Fundamentals look specially good for silver for this second half of February. Some unusual action is expected tomorrow or next Tuesday. The squezze the warehouse is quite dramatic and it will go quite higher not to long from now

PH in LA
(Thu Feb 12 1998 19:46 - ID#225408)
Ziza's Departure
Thank you, Oris!!!

Now, if you could just have a word with H. Hitter.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 19:56 - ID#330175)
Say it ain't so------------
We've lost Ziva ( sob- sob- sob )

(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:03 - ID#345268)
Ziva's departure...

... hasn't made the slightest difference in accessing kitco. The same problems as before. We blamed her posts for slowing the system, but lets admit it, we were wrong.

Blame the system, not Ziva.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:03 - ID#252127)
Ted; your reading my mind

Lawyer, likes silver, tenacious fighter. So far we found Chicken Little and WW, whose next.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:05 - ID#248180)
Bye - Bye Ziva & kind regards to E.T. & your other alien friends
Well done Oris. I move that we send Oris & Monica Lewinsky to the M/East.
Monica could give relaxation therapy to the M/East Leaders and Oris can kick Butt. Oris you good Russian man- speak what you think, DAH DAH, Neyt Neyt.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:05 - ID#93232)
Ziva will find greater happiness and fortune in her next life. puff

Heavy Hitter
(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:06 - ID#403159)
PH in LA
PH, missed your bus ride today.
HUH...Whats Wrong ?
Can't find any chump
change. I'm sure if you
could stand up long enough
and hold out your hand,
someone might feel sorry
for ya. Worm's like you don't
come along everyday.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:14 - ID#335190)
Oliver @ 15:48
**"Please understand me. I am nothing else than a CAPITALIST"**

I found nothing in your printed word to suggest anything but a view you hold, and you shared that view. Now, you wish to express a view that will brand you like a mark/title to show to the world.

Is this title/mark CAPITALIST a pass word. I sure as hell would not be forced to ware a mark/title to put forth a view. "FREEDOM" of views is centre to the reality of "FREE" people. Hold your ground, do not let small minds close you down. You are only as "FREE" as you act.

Yes, many will attempt to destroy your views, only you can allow them to destroy your view point. Positive and constructive debate is a learning experience, there in lies the method to change your views. Not, loud noise, and forced to wear a title/mark to be accepted.

I am no CAPITALIST- few even know what the hell a CAPITALIST is.

Take Care.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:15 - ID#26793)
European Central Bank to hold "some" gold.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:15 - ID#227290)
The Dow, Bonds, & Gold

As I sit here listening to Handel's Messiah and ruminating about the markets, here is what I see as of now.
On Tuesday, the Dow 30 Industrials completed a Dow Theory Confirrmation of the bull market by reaching a new all-time high to join the new highs of the Dow Jones 20 Transports.
After going six full months since the last new high, it would seem to me that there is a lot of pent-up strength in the bull right now and it could go a long way.
I'm am as fearful of the Dow as you are, so I watch it every day to see any sign of weakness. So far, not many. Today's early-morning swoon and afternoon rally shows strength, not weakness.
Remember Jesse Livermore: "In bull markets, prices tend to close near the highs and in bear markets, prices tend to close near the lows."

In the bonds and gold stocks, notice how they are moving in opposite directions almost in perfect synchronism.

Early today, bonds strong and XAU weak. And then -- boom, bonds turn down and XAU turns up right near the end of the day. ( Jesse Livermore redux )

I haven't seen a quote on gold tonight. Hope it's up. I've been thinking we've been in a pull back in the XAU after the initial runup. The daily charts show a lot of evidence that this pullback ended today. And the beauty of it is, this low -- if it's a low -- is higher than the previous low, certainly a good sign.

If the bonds gap open to the downside tomorrow, it will form an island reversal on the daily chart, clearly demonstrating that the top is in for bonds and the bottom is in for interest rates ( long term )

The WSJ editorial on Clinton today and the growing amount of evidence against the man are working him over pretty good. Monica Lewinsky's mother has just gone through the ringer big time.

And wouldn't it be ironic if Russia and the U.S. finally made it into battle against one another nearly a decade after the cold war ended.

I'll miss Ziva. But I would gladly trade her for higher gold prices.

Tomorrow is a big day.

The Preacher

(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:16 - ID#411149)
Heavy Hitter- where you been all day, thought you had a stroke or somethin worse, glad to see you back. My charts agree with you!
Old gold issa worried were goin lower, iffin we do I will have a hard choice- with my little cash do I buy more gold shares or more snp puts,
hard choice. We will win either way!

Tally Ho

PS- Bart- thanks for your effort to make this site better!

Richard Burke
(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:20 - ID#411318)
Cherokee: how do you see silver now - I recall you thought we would get a correction into the mid $6.00 range then moving back up for a continuation of the bull market. With this sudden decrease again in stocks are we up again already?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:22 - ID#252127)

Started his career counting bullion bars at BOE vaults, but since England had gotten rid of most of her gold, the guy didn't have to count to high.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:23 - ID#228128)
Straddeler its your software
My internet provider upgraded ( ??? ) us to microsoft explorer 3.0 and it does the same thing to me. Never had that problem with netscape.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:23 - ID#26793)
European CB to hold 5-20% of assets in gold says British official.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:27 - ID#300202)
Spoke to persons today interested in setting up a business in sea
kayaking/bird tours ( Enterprise Cape Breton ) Question arose-Via kayak
from say-Bird Island Tours located in Bras D'or to Bird Islands &
return. Approx.-how long a trip return. Kayak safe????? I believe it is
virtual ocean there. Will peak back in later for ur reply. Tks.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:28 - ID#341307)
Rumor or Fact?
Hi everyone,

I heard today that Mr. W. Buffet has been buying gold, can anyone confirm




(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:31 - ID#34883)
I share your concerns.

Heavy Hitter
(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:32 - ID#403159)
I still say the gold bull rode in on
a bronco and when things jump
were gonna have fireworks. Feb.
is always dull. So if it don't happen
this month, no big deal. I'm out of
here. Off to the formal evening dinner.
Take care.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:33 - ID#93232)
The death of oil (oli)....
$13.75/bbl sweet midcon. Ouch.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:36 - ID#222231)
Refer, Farfel, All, SSC is going to the Moon this year!
I posted several weeks ago that SSC is due for a turnaround. BOTH REFER AND FARFEL EXPOUNDED IT MUCH BETTER THAN I EVER COULD.

SSC"S past mistakes will not deter what is about to happen. This,IMHO, is one of the lowest risk investments that I have seen in quite a while. After several years of hardship, management realized that a complete restructuring of SSC was required and has, I believe, achieved same.

With the price of silver being depressed for many years, mine closures, shortages finally beginning to show, Buffett and probably others in the same league, silver is about to shine so bright it will probably blind us all.

Forget about the stock dilution as others have posted. This will not amount to a hill of beans once they show increasing production at lower operating costs at this opportune time.

The potential share price could excede the previous high of $20.00/share. IMHO. SSC'S home page is: ( ) Give it a try.

P.S. I am totally biased because I picked up 20,000 shares a while back at $0.75/share and will probably add to my position shortly.

Mr. Mick
(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:42 - ID#345321)
All - its called "deflation"..............
deflation, deflation. No matter what you wrap it in, it is deflation.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 20:53 - ID#307360)
Donald - European Central Banks

Rumours are floating around that they could hold up to 25% gold backing. This could be very bullish.

Caveat: If smaller European countries plan on dumping gold, they will do so before May which of course would be another great buying opportunity.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 21:00 - ID#252127)
John Simko Chairman at SSC was/is/ the head man at The Silver Institute

For info only:

(Thu Feb 12 1998 21:07 - ID#31868)
The Hermit
Your reaction is similar to mine when I first came upon it. Glad you enjoyed finding it.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 21:07 - ID#403277)
Oil Sands
Tzadeak: The Canadian oil sands are booming now, but it took thirty years of losses and Govt. subsidies to make it work. The deposits in Western USA are bituminous shales. Not nearly so rich nor so easily extracted. Economical exploitation is still a long way down the road. Such deposits exist in the far north of Canada as well.

neo fight
(Thu Feb 12 1998 21:13 - ID#389272)
deflation---yeah the last serious deflation the world had was the 30's
And boys and girls---what does that mean for gold stocks????

neo fight
(Thu Feb 12 1998 21:15 - ID#389272)
Homestake circa '32 does come to mind.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 21:15 - ID#31868)
I hope the golden sword gets them all, God only knows the suffering they have caused people the world over.

Bill El Zebub
(Thu Feb 12 1998 21:18 - ID#261352)
Any prognostication on the legs left in the DOW? Chartists welcome!
Any validity in a gold rally prior to the crash, Au crash, followed by AU resurgence post crash? In current world model
of course.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 21:20 - ID#252127)
In the short term;

it's better that all countries develop alternate sources of energy; while it will cost more initially, their sovereignty is better insured.
I read that the real cost of oil for Americans is phenominal. With all this warmongering - I believe it's true.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 21:28 - ID#410198)
tolerant1 your post 19.11 without sounding like a right wing wacko important info.

In that story the second last paragraph, Internationalists ( NWO ) fear that Republican suspicion that international instituions are eroding national sovereignti,is talking about the Multilaterial Agreement on Investments ( MAI ) check it out using search engine sorry I don't have the address,this is NAFTA/GATT on steriods,another reason why Clinton wants fast track,slide it in, no one will know,till it's to late,this agreement in short hands power from government to Transnational Corporations,the real fiunny thing is that both the far right and far left agree on this.

Bill El Zebub
(Thu Feb 12 1998 21:32 - ID#261352)
If we bought 15,000 shares @ 6.75 (BEARX) and the DOW corrects?
Can we project return on investment in 30% correction? 50%
correction? In '96 with S&P down 7.4% May-July BEARX was up

(Thu Feb 12 1998 21:33 - ID#374211)
@ Ryter... that's the way it seems to work here in Canada......
We seem to toil for years, and spend large sums deceloping our natural resources, and usually end up selling them to the US.....
I guess it all works out in the wash....BTW in addition to the Tar
Sands as you probably know of the huge Hybernia Oil Deposit off
of Newfoundland now in production.... The point I was making was
that The US is secure in Oil from all of the Americas....
Lots of Oil up here in Canada....Lots of Gold, Silver, Nickel ,Copper,
Water, Forests, etc,... this ground is truly blessed, some of the oldest on earth....

(Thu Feb 12 1998 21:35 - ID#426220)

During recent weeks many in the Far-East have naively believed that the IMF and empty pronouncements by respective governments have some way miraculously resolved problems which took years to create. HOWEVER, the short-term recovery is now being overwhelmed AGAIN by the fatal disease: TOO MUCH DEBT, AND TOO LITTLE PRODUCTIVE USE OF THE ASSETS -- per analysis of John Kutyn.

Again tonight the Far-Eastern stock markets are taking big hits:

Hong Kong DOWN 3%
Japan DOWN 2%
Malaysia DOWN 4%
Phillippines DOWN 3%
Singapore DOWN 4%

Hope springs enternal only in the minds of the credulous.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 21:37 - ID#426220)

During recent weeks many in the Far-East have naively believed that the IMF and empty pronouncements by respective governments have some way miraculously resolved problems which took years to create. HOWEVER, the short-term recovery is now being overwhelmed AGAIN by the fatal disease: TOO MUCH DEBT, AND TOO LITTLE PRODUCTIVE USE OF THE ASSETS -- per analysis of John Kutyn.

Again tonight the Far-Eastern stock markets are taking big hits:

Hong Kong DOWN 3%
Japan DOWN 2%
Malaysia DOWN 4%
Phillippines DOWN 3%
Singapore DOWN 4%

Hope springs enternal only in the minds of the credulous.

In view of the monumental importance of ASIA, golden-eagle ( sans the letters "en" ) will soon launch a new section entitled, "ASIAN CORNER." The rationale being: AS ASIA GOES... SO GOES THE WEST!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 21:40 - ID#432298)
Gold mining stocks............
Does anybody have any viewpoints on gold mining stocks. With the price of gold down and some gold mining companies shutting down production and the possibility of mergers, not to mention the soon to be weak supply versus the increase demand; your thoughts would be welcomed. Thank you.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 21:45 - ID#238422)
Junior and others
It gives me a great pleasure to anounce with
a sincere sadness that our Ziva is gone. I
still cannot believe this tradegy, I have
a feeling we lost a dear old friend who
made our life so enjoyable and full of sh*t
during the last few weeks. I'm surprised
and dissapointed that I was not being sued
by Ziva in accordance with a great American

As a protest against her unexpected departure
I'm living this site for 1 hour to drink my
favorite vodka with pickles and to watch a great
American movie called "Heat" on HBO.

I am thanking all good fellows who joined my fight
and would like to share the credit given to me
by Ziva The Great Zasranka ( Junior, translate please.. )

(Thu Feb 12 1998 21:51 - ID#432298)
Gold mining shares.......
Does anybody have any viewpoints on the gold mining sector considering that some gold mining companies are shutting down production and the possibility of mergers? With production decreases and increases in worldwide demand, gold mining shares should be heading higher but they are not. Your comments would be welcomed. Thank you.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 21:54 - ID#426220)

oris: Bolshoe spasibo, tovarish! NA ZDOROVIE

(Thu Feb 12 1998 21:56 - ID#339212)
@ Pete on SSC performance

Well Pete, I own SSC also so the following will make both of us feel better:

Sunshine Mine..... will produce 6 mil ozs of silver in 1998
Pirquitas Mine..................9 .....................future
Revenue Virginius...............?......................future
La Joya del Sol.................?......................future
All will produce...............20 mil ozs sometime in the future

Now for every dollar rise of silver, $20 mil profit is expected sometime in the future, which is 8 cents per share on 255 mil shares. Lets assume a reasonable P/E of 15 ( not 20 because debt must be serviced also ) .

So with P/E of 15 and 8 cents earnings per share, we have $ 1.20 increase in the price of stock for every dollar move of silver, IF AND WHEN PRODUCTION REACHES 20 mil ozs.

But 1998 production will be 1/3 of 20 mil ozs ( 6 mil ozs. in 1998 )
Therefore, expect $1.20 / 3 = 40 cents increase in the price of stock for each dollar up of silver.

If silver doubles to $15, expect SSC to trade at around $5, at current production levels.

If production levels triple sometime in the future, and silver is at $15,
then the stock will trade at $5 X 3 = $15 per share.


Comments invited, intelligent ones of course!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:00 - ID#269245)
gold, oil, & war
Would someone ( who "knows" ) respond to the fact that the price of gold went down dramatically during the Gulf War? It seems contradictory to me. Did gold demand go down or did the value of the dollar go up? What happened to the relative price of oil during that time? Are there any reliable resources on the subject?
- Thanks.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:01 - ID#252150)
and is more marketable than ever. Because of the radical anti-estashlishment reputation of snowboarding, sports agents say he will make many millions. Snowboarding is the fastest growing sport among young people in N.America & much of Europe.
Canada now has the world's fastest snowboarder, fastest race car driver
( Jacques Villeneuve ) & fastest human being on foot ( Donovan Bailey ) . Not bad for a Country with a populatiom smaller than California.
Oh yeah--The owner of the team that won the super bowl is Canadian & James Cameron the Director Producer of Titanic, which will be the biggest grossing film of all time is Canadian. Then there is Pamela lee Anderson,
the most recognized woman in the world, Wayne Gretsky, Shania Twain etc,etc.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:06 - ID#374211)
@ IMF Heads for "Showdown" with Indonesia......

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:13 - ID#65207)
Where is Ted with is rush to jugement?Canada GOLD.
Gold will stay flat and the world will live in peace,...because BILL Clinton is the best man the White House ,EVER....
Going to bed relaxed,good night.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:16 - ID#28594)
Whilst Asia implodes, German professors are lighting fuses...
Letters to the Editor, FT--The Four German Professors become 155 German speaking economics professors who petition that orderly postponement of euro is essential Excerpts:
--public budget consolidation started too late and half-heartedly
--despite numerous examples of creative accounting core countries have NOT succeeded in reducing deficits markedly
--average debt ration has not come down since 1991, but has risen by 15%: now exceeds the 60% reference value by large margin
--Stability Pact cannot guarantee budgetary discipline
--since 1991 structural problems of Europe have worsened
--current state of economic affairs is most unsuitable for starting monetary union

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:16 - ID#31868)
Yes. They are trying to turn us all into mini corporations where we have no rights other than those they give us. They suk.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:18 - ID#57232)
IMF showdown, Indonesian currency board and, currency crisis returns
TZADEAK: Is this a coincidence that the IMF warns Indonesia at the same time Indonesia goes into a tailspin? Odd, isn't it?

On a more innocent line, I don't think Indonesia is ready for a currency board anyway, as I doubt they have the reserves to change the money supply in synchrony with fluctuations in exchange rates.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:18 - ID#339212)
@ Gazebo

"With the increased demand"...

In an earlier post ( which noone care to comment, may be because I made some unorthodox statements on the demand / supply issue ) I mentioned that I have second thoughts on the "demand" numbers. The Koreans for example had zero, or better, negative demand. Mr. Korean public sold gold.

Is it possible that some airhead bull is publishing an inflated demand number to stimulate bullishness, then every one copies the number, and pretty soon you have the whole world believing in this number? It then becomes the "unquestionable number" and all of us are caught with our pants down because we believed that number.

TVX announced today that when gold was at around $390 they expected lower gold prices. So did some other producers. These guys were not aware of the "increased demand?"

Bottom line, I challenge the demand issue and I think that the derivative effect is not the reason why gold is staying down. Supply and demand in the last week as far as the physical is concerned are at EQUILIBRIUM.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:18 - ID#374211)
@ Rep. Sen. Helms "IMF Bails out Negligent Bankers and corrupt Governments"

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:23 - ID#23782)
Myrmidom; As of 9-30-97 I have the current liability 4 million, the bond debt at 27 million. The current assets at about 18 million.
The difference of 13 million is small change when viewed at the multiples you use. Does that level of debt jive with what you have?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:24 - ID#288295)
East Coast Minerals

I have received scanned site map and other attachments from the recent ECM report of sampling assays to the ASX. I will be pleased to forward them to anyone upon request.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:25 - ID#431263)
Missed Arch Crawford on CNBC today. Does anybody here know where Arch stands on the markets these days? If so, please post! Viel Dank! A& E now showing a segment on remote viewing on THE UNEXPLAINED--will repeat at 1:00 AM. I'll bet Ziva is watchin'!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:25 - ID#335190)
WetGold @ 13:50 (sorry for the length)
"FREEDOM" was the subject yesterday. Tolerant1 and yourself, directed me to an url, that gave references to "FREEDOM". You and Tolerant1 were giving assistance, and for this I am appreciative, to both of you.

I reported to Tolerant1, that his url did not give any detail as to the sponsor/funding/promoter/principals and shared my concerns. I do not believe in blind acceptance of so called "TRUTH" agenda.

Your post of 13:50 requests an explanation of Leonard Read and Chamber of Commerce and events in 1933 as to their correlation.

EVOLUTION is the best explanation, and BIAS/PREJUDICED. I do not like the United States Chamber of Commerce, especially the National Association of Manufacturers ( NAM ) the founders/sponsors/principals of the Chamber of Commerce.

You regard The Foundation for Economic Education ( FEE ) is based on a philosophy/scholars, and obviously consider them to be independent and a constructive/positive organization. I do not, they are an extension of the NAM & Chamber. The architects/promoter of the cold war, and a destructive force against the very thing I expect you hold dear "FREEDOM"

"We The People" and your reference to Perot. I am not a "We The People" member, I use that reference as in The Constitution of The United States of America "We The People of the United States" and your The Declaration of Independence "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal"

The FEE references "private property", well when the FREE-SOILERS, became part of the Republican party in 1860. Consider if you will, how is it that FREEDOM of the Europeans in America, can evolve to the point that the removal of the First Nations People ( Free People ) from their "Private Property" and the European proclaims in their Declaration of Independence ( 1776 ) that all men are created equal.

I placed the reference of 1933 as an example of the actions of FREE MARKET PROMOTERS and their destructive actions to place in bondage the USofA workers, via, RED SCARE TACTICS and Legislation to remove the rights and FREEDOMS of workers.

To withdraw their labour, this is the act of FREE men, is it not. Workers refusing to work under the conditions imposed on them. Yet the NAM & Chamber did not see the actions of workers as a FREEDOM, and used troops, and the very government of the "We The People" against the FREE interests of a FREE people.

Also, I do not expect anyone to join my "CAMP" as you put it. I have nothing to sell, promote, except to enjoy the debate, and accept that the many outstanding posts and information will develope me to a new level of understanding, and I hope, I can also add to the debate in a constructive and positive manner.

And above all, maybe I can get these bastard Central Bankers via getting my timing right, and make timely investment in GOLD, and be on the right side of the action. Emotions get in the way at times eh!

I Thank you for your post, and reply. And do not take my remarks personal, I am discussing the United States Chamber of Commerce & NAM and FREEDOM.

P.S. The USofA Constitution is not "FLAWLESS" by Jefferson. Yes, the First Nations People had a major influence, and is referenced as the Confederacy ( 1570 ) Five Iroquoian tribes ( Seneca, Cayuga, Onondaga, Oneida and Mohawk ) united in a "Confederacy" that has endured for hundreds of years; the "League of the Long House" [U.N. maybe eh!] About ( 1720 ) these five were joined by a sixth ( 6 ) the Tuscarora. The purpose of the League was to renounce mutual warfare, while presenting a united front against outside marauders. [ 6 nations - 6pak ]

Sorry for the length. Take Care.

Maria Bond
(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:29 - ID#348265)
The DOW is overbought on the nine day RSI and is fast approaching
resistance on the summation index. The way this market has been going in
the last two weeks looks like a blow off that not even BK could deny.
Expect weakness next week.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:30 - ID#31868)
6PAK right of their web site
Perhaps you did not hit the right links once you got there. There is no "mission" or "promotion" or "fees" read below.

"The individual [as opposed to the corporation] may stand upon his constitutional rights as a citizen. He is entitled to carry on his private business in his own way. His power to contract is unlimited. He owes no such duty [to submit his books and papers for an examination] to the State, since he receives nothing therefrom, beyond the protection of his life and property. His rights are such as existed by the law of the land [Common Law] long antecedent to the organization of the State, and can only be taken from him by due process of law, and in accordance with the Constitution. Among his rights are a refusal to incriminate himself, and the immunity of himself and his property from arrest or seizure except under a warrant of the law. He owes nothing to the public so long as he does not trespass upon their rights." -- Hale v. Henkel, 201 U.S. 43 at 47 ( 1905 )

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:32 - ID#252150)
Dow To Get Hit With Double Whammy
The number of IPOs usually increases substantially at this time of the year, and will siphon off much of the inflows. That combined with weaker earnings in Q1 should knock at least 1 of the legs out of the bull mkt.
If SNP puts were'nt so ridiculously priced , now would be a good time to buy them. POG will depend a lot on the JY. If it weakens substantially, there is some hope, otherwise sideways to down.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:33 - ID#7568)

There has been much discussion of gold mining shares and their value as leading indicators for the bullion market. In the current environment it may well be that history is not a reliable guide.

Historically, one of the reasons that gold shares have led the metal is that shares were a sensitive measure of increased investment demand. In an environment where price is marginally effected by investment demand, such a measure is useful. The current environment finds the market being influenced much more by the potentialities of central bank supply, than marginal increases in investment demand.

Another difference in this environment relative to other gold bottoms of the recent past, is that the mining industry is in real jeopardy. Gold at $300 per ounce will bankrupt a lot of companies. Time is going to destroy a lot of balance sheets.

It may well be that the rise in gold is commensurate with the demise of some major companies. Since companies must fess up to their problems once a quarter, the April and July timeframes could be coincidental with strength in gold as some big name gold stocks go down for the count.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:33 - ID#339212)
@ Sweat re: SSC

Your debt numbers are correct, I just checked them from their web site.

This stock will surprise many. Of course, many have been burned with SSC in the past and they will not touch it even with a ten feet pole. But emotions aside, if silver goes up, expect a significant move in SSC.

Heavy Hitter
(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:33 - ID#403159)
Steve Puetz should be WALKING IN anytime now.

neo fight
(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:34 - ID#389272)
yo oris---your mama would not be proud
I think you must have already had far too much vodka to say your sorry
asta la vistas to Ziva---In fact I think you may test positive for a
substance similiar to that Gold medal snowboarder from sunny So. Cal.
gold gold-gold gold-gold gold-gold gold-gold.
And may the world be free of oris and ziva---for at least 8 or so hours.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:36 - ID#57232)
There are good reasons for the lack of a gold rally
All: We must be patient. We know the fundamentals are in our favor, but just as the bull equity market doesn't see the writing on the wall, neither does the fledgling gold bull market.

The reasons are:

1 ) Return of SEAsia crisis -- as Old Gold as so eloquently said.

2 ) Dropping commodity price index

3 ) Bull market in equities -- general public still not interested in gold.

Now, all we need is another W Buffet disclosure ( gold ) , a weakening of the market rally, a rise in commodity prices, a loss in confidence in the dollar, or a world-wide crisis of some kind. The only threat to our gold/goldstock investment is a solid crisis in the US dollar ( al la 1987 ) , and a market crash. I don't think an outright market crash is that likely, given all the equity bulls, and the skills of AG and RR. If so, we should have a nice gold/golstock rally for a period of time.

I will be on the alert for a sudden drop in the US dollar as a warning that we could be at risk for a crash. Until that time I am willing to risk some of my funds in gold/goldstocks.

If any of you can think of other parameters to follow to avoid us little goldbugs getting caught in the equity market suction, I am all ears!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:36 - ID#374211)
@ JTF.... your eye is on the ball....
Yah real coincidence ins't it? That is one of the reasons I believe that
the next in line is Russia, it's down almost 6% in two days....They are not
playing along on the Iraq "thing'.....BTW isn't it a sign of bewilderment and desperation on the part of this new Indonesian VP to push for
a colonial type of currency board, a throw back to the past, believing
it could ever work in today's complex markets ....But as I say, the fact that they are even proposing it is very telling indeed about the current desperate state of the markets, and it's potential violent turmoil......

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:38 - ID#390249)
interesting comments from Munk
in the attached article.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:42 - ID#252150)
223@ Your 18:16 on Iraq
It's good to see that there are some on this forum who can combine common sense with compassion.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:45 - ID#57232)
I think there is another reason the IMF doesn't like currency boards
TZADEAK: I think SDRer can help us in this one. I gather many of the complex currency trades in many markets have been set up to operate in dollars, not a currency basket. Shouldn't hold back a clever computer programmer, but it does make a good story. Also, I don't think the 'powers that be' like the idea of the dollar relinquishing its position to other currencies.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:46 - ID#252150)
neo fight with his head up his ass
What the hell are you talking about--the gold medal snowboarder from sunny so. california????

Heavy Hitter
(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:48 - ID#403159)
1- 900- PRODIGY
Tell Arch that Heavy said
he's a contrary indicator.
He has made me a fortune.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:53 - ID#23782)
Non - offensive joke?

One day, God planned to destroy the earth, so He called
three most important person of the earth. He called
president Bill Clinton, president Boris Yeltsin and
president Soeharto. God told them that the earth had
been so bad, and He was going to destroy the earth in
three days and nothing, nothing could change His mind
about it. They were allowed to come back to earth, to
their business and country and told their colleagues
about His plan.
President Clinton said to his staff, 'I
have a good news and a bad news... The good news is,
there "is" God, and the bad news is, He is going to
destroy the earth in three days.'
President Yeltsin,
gathered all of his minister and said, 'There are bad
news and more bad news... The bad news is... There "is"
God, and the more bad news is He is going to destroy the
earth in three days.'
President Soeharto went back and
told his ministers, 'I have a good news, and MORE good
news. The good news is, God thinks I am one of the three
most important person on the earth. And the more good
news is, our country has not to pay our foreign debts.'


(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:54 - ID#30116)
If the dollar drops, what do you think gold will do, since it is priced in dollars???? Sitting in 'cash American' as the U.S. dollar plummets is called 'inflation eating your money'...

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:55 - ID#57232)
Interesting comments from Peter Munk
Neophyte: Reading between the lines we learn two things -- Peter Munk has a small army of gold derivatives traders behind him -- and he appears willing to buy gold at the current low price. So -- he probably expects the price to go up fairly soon. At the very least that does not sound like an individual who is nearly broke.

My guess is that Peter Munk is either the world's best poker player, or Barrick is in pretty good shape!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:56 - ID#252150)
Don't be surprised to see an announcement within the next few days of more IMF money for Russia. The crooked bastards will try to buy them off.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:58 - ID#374211)
@ JTF ...Indonesia currency board....
Take a look at this URL on the subject....You'll note that it was
invented in the 19th century by the British, and meant for purposes
other than the Capital Flight now being experienced in Indonesia,
believe it or nor they have a balance budget.....Down sides are you
can't PRINT money, or sell bonds etc.... and could have devestatting consequenses for the population, which the West is correctly
"concerned" for the currency itself maybe they'll use the SDR?....Nah!....

(Thu Feb 12 1998 22:59 - ID#31868)
Does not the NWO single currency exist already. The US$, also they have the supposed "most" powerful military to match. I think this is why we see the fight for the IMF, UN, FAST TRACK, etc. going on to the degree that we do.

If the attack in the ME does not have the outcome they desire then there will be a firestorm from within the US and abroad. This foul thing that has been planned ( obviously to me at least ) to culminate with many different liberties being removed from the global populace will come unraveled.

Quite frankly I see much bloodshed in the next year or so. The US has no leg to stand on with many of the international agendas on the table. In addition, although most do not realize it yet, the Clinton Administration and the Republican Congress have recorded more anti freedom, anti liberty laws and such than at any time before.

Folks. One way or the other, the s_it is going to hit the fan. It is not a good thing when the military openly discusses their distaste and dislike of the leader of a country.

And why should they respect the coward elect, a man with no ethics, or morals of any kind.

The man, his wife, and those he has chosen disgrace the office he holds.

of course, all IMVHO

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:02 - ID#31868)
oh yeah
and China still sits in the wings.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:02 - ID#374211)
@ James, I doubt it...Russians would want (50?)US Billions,IMF can't even get 18 Bill from congress

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:03 - ID#317193)
Asia ia rather red
Japan -2.67 HK-3.76 Tom

Heavy Hitter
(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:04 - ID#403159)
Your concern is justified. However gold
has already sold off. In 87 I believe gold
remained high up until the crash. The day
of the crash gold rallied for a few days.
Gold was smashed down after that
and gold stocks went with it. This time
maybe different due to gold being where
it is today. If gold starts to rally along side
stocks for awhile and a crash hits gold
will go with it. We could be in for any
combination of events to unfold. Act
accordingly. Always enjoy your posts.
Good investing.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:05 - ID#317193)
Gold spot 299.12 Tom

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:06 - ID#345268)

My friend, you state:

"Now, all we need is another W Buffett disclosure ( gold ) , a weakening of the market rally, a rise in commodity prices, a loss in confidence in the dollar, or a world-wide crisis of some kind".

YES SIR, that is what is going to stimulate demand for gold. All the garbage analysis of jewelry and industrial demand exceeding supplies was just hype. If you believe what you stated above and in your post, then shoot all the analysts. They have their heads burried in sand.

Those guys were the same probably airheads who were forecasting for 25 years now the explosion of silver prices "because of INCREASED DEMAND".

What happened to the demand? Oh, they were 25 years out of timing. And we had the biggest world industrial expansion in history, but silver did not move, where it should have done being an industrial metal. Their numbers are hype and your post proves it.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:08 - ID#28594)
Donald--Had to share this with you...
Perusing China financial data: ( 1 ) "Experts' forecast--China's economic development in the next 55 years" now THAT's a timeline!

( 2 ) When was the last time you read THIS sort of declarative sentence in a financial report?
"From the structure and scale of the financial assets and liabilities of state-owned enterprises, it can be seen that the amount of the financial liabilities is more than twice as much as that of the financial assets, and that the bank loans account for too large a proportion in the total liabilities. Such being the case, once there is anything wrong with the repayment capability of the enterprises, the bank loans will immediately begin to turn into bad loans." "12.2 Passage loading from the enterprise's risk liabilities to the Bank's bad loans in China"
I think this is called "the truth"...but it has been soooo long, I may be wrong! {:- )

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:10 - ID#57232)
If dollar drops, people will flock to gold! -- as long as they have money to buy it.
Panda: That is exactly what happened between 1984 and 1987 -- the dollar dropped steadily. Somewhere around May 1987 the dollar bottomed, ending the long dollar bear. Gold stocks bottomed around Feb 87 and rose steadily to an Oct 87 peak, during a period of ( generally ) rising interest rates. The dollar then dropped about 5% in about three days near Aug 87, and two months later we had Black October.

Nimble gold stock investors would have more than doubled their money if they bought in Feb and sold within two months of that Aug 87 dollar crash. I am rusty on this, but I think the Aug 87 dollar crash was precipitated by a 'run' on the dollar. Japanese selling? I don't remember. Sound's like something similar might happen again, doesn't it, given that so many foreign investors hold dollars.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:10 - ID#317193)
Perhaps Asia is making it's second leg DOWN? Tom

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:11 - ID#340286)
Myrmidon - Re: SSC
I would not be that optimistic on SSC.. First they have almost 290M shares out with the last issue. To bring Piriquitas in production they will have to get US$120M++ into treasury...implying another equity issue of probably $50M-75M + some debt financing. Still, SSC will always go up when silver move in that direction..and the reason is that SSC are the 3 letters brokers know the best when ask about a silver play. On a value basis, there are better plays.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:23 - ID#238422)
Spasibo Vam toje, tovarish Vronsky. Tost za Vas...

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:24 - ID#225273)
clone, gold, & war

As I recall, gold rallied strongly right before the American invasion. But after the first night of bombing, the market knew the outcome was in hand and then gold fell.

The Preacher

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:25 - ID#28594)
ALL: Who knew WHAT and WHEN did they know it?
RISKS ( 1996 )

Dai Genyou ( senior Economist, Office of the Central Leading Group for Financial and Economic Affairs )
"There exist at present relatively great financial risks in China's economy. They are risks which, from a macroeconomic perspective, may result in a monetary and financial crisis in the whole financial system; they are not just risks in the business of financial institutions as described in text books. ...However, such rapid development is mainly backed up by loans. As the growth of the financial assets has far outpaced the substantial growth of the economy, the amount of bad assets of the banks has been on the rise, and a number of financial institutions have run into payment difficulties."

JTF@Sane.and.Sound A bit ago I made this "note on the margin":
It occurs that there is another means by which dollar denominated debt could be made more manageable.... take the dollar down...

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:26 - ID#57232)
Your 23:08 is great!
SDRer: That does not sound like the usual inscruitable Chinese statement -- that sounds like a translation of a memo that should never have been released. It will be interesting what our Banker friend Donald says about that! Imaging J P Morgan saying something like that in one of their reports! You know -- sometimes there are advantages of a highly socialist system -- I recall working for the federal government years ago -- and now I recall how easy it was to say things that you would never dare say if you worked for a corporation -- simply because noone really had responsibility for anything!

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:28 - ID#238422)
neo fight
I think you assalted my mother, punk.

Some people still consider it a deadly act
of disrespect. You better start watching yourself...

See you...

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:29 - ID#25588)
On an hourly chart March Silver is forming a nice triangle in the wave 4 position. This implies a sharp rally ( next 2 or 3 days ) and a final rally to the ideal target of 7.65 - 7.80. Buy Mar Silver under 7.00 stop 6.90, sell at 7.65 and short at 7.75. Should see a sharp correction once the 7.70 area is met. Installed Win95, hard drive and memory runs 10 times faster.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:30 - ID#31868)
WIN95 problems
Some of you have mentioned that you had various problems with WIN95 in different areas. go here and scroll down till you see the article I am talking about.

Hope it helps.

neo fight
(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:30 - ID#389272)
the olympics???!!!I guess you don't follow civilization much.
But I understand.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:31 - ID#225273)
Bill el Zebub, Dow, & Gold
Bill el Zebub,
I think there is a rationale for both a gold and Dow rally -- reflation.

Not long ago, someone on here said inflation is returning, buy things. He added that stocks and bonds are things. Inflation could spur the dollar price of Dow stocks along with spurring the price of gold.

The Dow looks pretty strong to me. And gold looks to be nearing the end of its pullback.

The Preacher

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:33 - ID#345268)
@ CC re: SSC

I am aware of the cost to bring the Pirquitas mine up.

But, lets assume silver at $15, and worst case production costs of the mine at $5 dollars per oz of silver. $10 profit on 9.1 million ozs. produced yearly from the mine, gives us $91 mil. which pays almost for the entire mine.

Pretty cheap mine, don't you think?

Now, in the future we expect a total of at least 20 mil ozs.production of the entire mine fleet. This stock from a production standpoint, is comparable to PAASF ( Pan American Silver ) . Something to consider.

And if in my stock price forecast I include the increased value of the reserves at $15 silver, then the stock should be even higher.

neo fight
(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:34 - ID#389272)
Wow --Bart this place is far more threatening than I thought
That oris character is quite bizarre---I think i'll say good bye before this place actually costs money.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:36 - ID#225273)
Gazebo & Gold Mining Shares

Because many large above-ground hoards of gold exist, demand versus newly mined supply statistics are generally less important in gold than in other commodities.

The real boon for gold is monetary demand. How much is gold wanted as money? That's the key.

Western central banks have been answering that question: "Not much." But other forces in the world have come to the table with a different answer.

The buyers have certainly not overwhelmed the sellers, but I think the tide has turned and soon they will.

The gold mining stocks will do well once gold more investors understand that a meaningful move in gold is underway.

In the exploration mining stocks, the industry as a whole has never been in better shape. There are many companies with millions and millions of dollars. They will do exceedingly well in a gold bull market.

The Preacher

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:37 - ID#31868)
A simple, harmless trick to get a tiny bit better performance. Right click on MY COMPUTER, go to PROPERTIES, click the PERFORMANCE TAB, then click on FILE SYSTEM, in the TYPICAL ROLE OF THIS MACHINE change it to NETWORK SERVER.

restart and voila, a little bit better performance all the way around. No chance of screwing anything up.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:37 - ID#269245)
Preacher - thanks for the reply...
Re: war,
Do you think it safe to assume that the value of gold will react ( downward ) in a similar way the second time around ( assuming diplomatic resolve fails ) ?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:38 - ID#390249)
Munk - Poker player?
JTF - I'm a little leery ( sp? ) of Munk. He's admitted in the past that he's not a mining person, he's a finance person. He told the CB's about six months ago that if they kept selling gold, he would just close up his mining shop and move into something else - real estate I think it was. I think he's a poker player.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:43 - ID#225273)
So far, there has been no spike upward. Gold has treated the ME problem as a non-event.

If I recall correctly, gold spiked to $420 per ounce before the invasion. I was in South Africa the day SH invaded Kuwait and the papers were crying about gold falling to $340 per ounce. An $80 rally ensued in a hurry. ( I think my nuimbers are correct. )

So the situation is not similar today at all. If we first see a spike in gold because of the impending war, then I would think that once the outcome is no longer in doubt, the price would fall.

We don't have that situation yet. The market is very complacent about the upcoming war.

We'll see if it stays that way.

The Preacher

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:45 - ID#252150)
neo fight @ MUSHROOMS'R YOU
What has "following" civilization got to do with getting the news straight & knowing the difference between B.C. Canada & S. California U.S.A. You are a perfect example of the people who sit in front of the tube in a vegetative state--THE MORE YOU WATCH THE LESS YOU KNOW.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:47 - ID#345268)

"Monetary demand" is the key, not production / consumption analyst hype.

And so far euphoric stock markets have curtailed monetary demand for gold.

Monetary demand is the only factor which will drive up prices, this being triggered by Soros, Buffett, or Jo Public.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:47 - ID#238422)
Bart, I 'm sorry for this burst of my anger delivered
through your site. Will not do it again, promise.

I wish I could talk to this neojerk direct...

My appologies to others too...

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:48 - ID#31868)
The main factor in the ME will be if anyone engages in the confrontation and or bombing by the US.

If IRAN or another country gets into the mess, gold will go right through the roof.

This time will be different, one, it is different, two, the US is not in the same position from a military or diplomatic standpoint. So far all of the supposed allies that we have are all from the coward elects lips to God's ears.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:50 - ID#57232)
G'Nite all!
Long day for me at work -- pleasure to converse with all of you tonight. By the way, one of my colleagues just got suspicious and bailed out of the equity market today -- reason: Noticed that mutual fund inflows were drying up. I asked him if he was worried about the Clinton investigations, and he said no -- 'it was already discounted'. Perhaps the SEAsia downturn helped.

I don't know what the changing opinions of one person tells us -- but he was a strong market bull only one month ago.


(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:50 - ID#7568)
200 million.bounty.hunters


After Stanly Fisher's latest attack on Indonesia and their proposal for a currency board, the Rupiah is down 25% tonight. It is beyond belief that these idiots from the IMF and World Bank could be so stupid. Here the country finally gets a break from the markets on the floating of the currency board idea, and quicker than you can say jack-booted thug, nearly all the gains are lost.

There is something going on here that does not add up, and I believe it revolves around the current creditors and their chances of getting repaid on their commercial loans to Indonesia. If the IMF and World Bank had even the remotest concern for the recovery of Indonesia they would have nurtured this week's positive reversal in the Rupiah as one might a dying ember on a remote Arctic island. Instead they pissed upon on it with glee.

It is becoming clear that Suharto has seen the light, and light has shone brightly on telling creditor banks to &$#$ off, at least for a while. Indonesia's foreign reserves total some 20 billion dollars. Since by now the current account balance has probably swung into the black, this is probably enough critical mass to finance export related, imports. As long as their is no pressure from the need to service corporate debt, there is no natural force pushing dollars out the door, and it is likely that the currency can stabilize. At 5000 RP / $ the currency is undervalued by something on the order of 40% based upon recent PPP numbers.

The problem from the IMF point of view is that if this thing works ( currency board ) , then they have lost nearly all of their power, and their real constituency, the creditor banks, may be left out in the cold.

In any event, it looks like we will have to lean on EB to expand the IMF wing so that a representative sampling from the World Bank can be included in the exhibits. Looks like we might have to hire more taxidermists.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:53 - ID#31868)
An excellent idea. I shall begin seeking out donors for the new wing pronto.

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:54 - ID#41229)
Wow! I'm I lost?
Leave alittle while and things change majorly. Next time I pop in is there going to be a coin slot to pay for the ride?

Whats with Ziva greating us farewell at the top of the page?

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:54 - ID#227238)
Preacher: I think people are conditioned to expect a repeat of the earlier conflict. As a result we really are seeing no "war" discount in any of the markets. ..... or perhaps they think it will all be called off, for a lack of interest. : ) )

(Thu Feb 12 1998 23:57 - ID#41229)
It changed after I posted
Whats with the change after I post, I now I partied hard in school but come on, I can't be havin flash backs!