Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 00:03 - ID#224149)
Buckskin mutated ----- yours illustrious to be Camouflaged to the naturalization papers of la stingness.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 00:10 - ID#316193)
Want To Have Some Fun...Ask Some Questions....

(Sat Feb 14 1998 00:12 - ID#227238)
Cmax: Just reading your comments about the Ven IRS; how do you survive down there? I thought Ven was on the reform wagon. No?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 00:16 - ID#31868)
Learn more about criminals, an educated dupe makes
for better pickings.

PH in LA
(Sat Feb 14 1998 00:21 - ID#225408)
NEWS FLASH!!! US Government to be abolished??? Read all about it.

"The US Government will not exist in its current form by 2002."????

Thank you for your information. You have probably noticed that it no longer exists in the form it had last year, either.

This is very important news indeed. Certainly noone here would have noticed without your announcement.

Will there be any earthquakes by the year 2002?

John Disney__A
(Sat Feb 14 1998 00:26 - ID#24135)
Cross eyed mouse speaks ....
to Bart
I visit the site mainly because I find it fun.
I notice that several of the people who
in my opinion contribute almost nothing to the humour of
the site and very little to any analysis are the MOST
interested in controlling it - namely Preacher and Hepcat,
of all people.
Hepcat simply drew a straight line once, and said
gold was going to 330. Of course he provided no
rationale, and then watched it go down 50$ furthur without
comment. He thinks he is a great analyst. I dont.
I think he has little imagination. This is
evidenced by his use of the moniker I created because
he was unable to think up one of his own He wouldnt
know Eleanor of Aquitaine from the Duke of Ellington.
As for preacher, you can have him.
I like the jokes, the fun, the analysis. Ive also
met some nice people as a result of the site.
In general, I think Im spending too much time here.
Maybe restricting the site is a good idea after all.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 00:27 - ID#31868)
Ph in LA
No, no , no...they are broke, an economic downturn will devastate the globe. The US Government has promised money, programs, SS, pensions and more. There will be no more revenue to pay for all of these promises.

They will attempt to raise taxes, this will not float. The IRS will be abolished. Millions of people have already moved their money offshore. Many more will do so. In fact, millions of the rich in America went abroad in the seventies.

Time will tell. Won't it. You live in your world. I will live in mine. Time will tell.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 00:33 - ID#266105)
@venting spleen

An interesting volcano came to life off the coast of Washington
sometime back, located on the juncture of a couple plates. The water
is 8000ft at the seamont location, the peak about 4500-5000ft. Not
the explosive Mt.St. Helens variety but 'paa-paa' ( ? ) , oozing a similar
hundreds of millions of tons of material yet continuing. Outa sight,
outa mind. Really out to the blues this time, the girls are dang cute.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 00:37 - ID#330175)
What a STRANGE Friday the 13th it was---------------------------------*go Gold*
and 'it's' still active on the 14th ( hmmmmmmmmmmm ) WEIRD is all I can say!

(Sat Feb 14 1998 00:42 - ID#45181)
Uncle Saddam
sig: The "Soveriegn" state of Kuwait was a province of Iraq until the British tore it away about 70 years ago and gave it to the rapacious Sabah family as a reward to them for siding with the British against their own people. It remains a wholly owned fiefdom of the Sabah family, and one of the most despotic tyrannies in the world. But that's ok by us, because Big Oil is in bed with them.

JTF: Saddam is not a democrat----or a republican, for that matter. But, compared to the sheiks, emirs, kings, and other assorted autocrats who remain in power in that area by force of American arms, he is the soul of enlightenment. I have not been there since Bush destroyed the economy of the country, but I can tell you from first hand knowledge that he built more schools, hospitals, roads and bridges than ALL the kleptocrats in the surrounding prison-states combined. If you have been convinced by our "controlled" media that he has no support from the Iraqi people---and your post says you have been--- you should look at some of the tape that was shown on our tv from 1990, where he stands in the street in Baghdad, in an open jeep, surrounded by thousands of civilians who are firing automatic weapons in the air. Any ONE of them could have setteld his hash and no one would have known who the trigger man was. Despots DO NOT allow their people to carry arms at all, much less in close proximity to the despot. cf., the U.S. under Billary.

This will not be a "war", in any sense. The markets are saying loudly that there will be no war. It will be a high altitude turkey shoot with extensive annihilation of innocents. It will, however, remove an irritant to the Israeli state and take the minds of the domestic boobs off the antics of the Klintonistas for a while. It willalso make Iran even stronger. Unlike the Iraqis, the Iranians have the ability to sink a capital ship or more, since they have a lot of hardware and a few atom bombs purchased from the disappearing Russian stockpile. The Klintonistas will do nothing about Iran, because THEY have the ability to shoot back. I've known a lot of bullies. they are all cowards, who never start a fight they arent sure they can win. Ironic, isnt it, that a government which used illegal---by international law---chemical weapons against women and children in a church in Waco would use that as an excuse to destroy a helpless little country that never harmed a hai
r on our heads until we went over there and started bombing them.

Thats taking the long way to the point: I'm still long the S&P and short gold. As long as Klinton has even the goldbugs flummoxed, paper will be king and gold will languish. The price of gold will vary inversely with Klinton's polls. The bombardment of Iraq should lift those into the 90's. The price of "paper" will follow those ratings. The Dow will hit 10,000 in '98. Nuff said.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 00:45 - ID#255151)

Thought I'd post something off topic here. This is wonderful news for kids and anyone else who hates needles. In the next few months, stitches will be nearly obsolete. A substance called dermabond will be applied painlessly to lacerations with no painful numbing of the wound. Young Ms. Stradmaster will no doubt be appreciative. Go Gold!

(Sat Feb 14 1998 00:51 - ID#238422)
John Disney
John, at one time you mentioned Moscow on Hudson...
I love this movie, it's one of the best movies
I've ever seen. There is perfectly accurate
phase in this movie - "America is strange and
wonderful". This is exactly what I see here...

Take care and good morning to you.
P.S. I called my friend in Moscow and ask him to make
a little research on Norilsk numbers. Will call him
back on Monday. May be he finds something, but
it's quite a challenge, he said. If he is successful,
I'll e-mail you...

(Sat Feb 14 1998 00:52 - ID#286230)
oldman: Before you disappear again--why do you think gold will decline?

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Sat Feb 14 1998 00:54 - ID#25867)
Charges to view messages using
Here are the details of what I've hinted at in the past. That is a new charge for those who wish to read the discussion in "full text" mode. Posting, registering, and viewing in "short text" mode remain free as always.

As I've mentioned the reason for this is the ever increasing cost of bandwidth due to the quantity of text that's being sent from our ISP. "Full text" access represents 95% of the damage.

How much will it cost to use "full text" mode? A mere $9.95 a month. That's $9.95 Canadian Dollars which is only about $6.90 USD. Since Canada is one of those countries whose central banks sold most of their gold holdings, the cost in US Dollars may soon be closer to $2.00 monthly.

All revenues will be used to buy our own dedicated high-bandwidth internet connection ( cost:$2800 monthly ) and hopefully an additional programmer ( cost: $3600 monthly ) which together will yoeld the following benefits:

1. Faster & more reliable access to the discussion group. Fifty users can be concurrently downloading full text with their 28.8 modems and experience no slowdown.

2. Programming modifications to the discussion group become a priority since we're charging for it.

3. A "squelch" function will be added for "full text" subscribers. And a "subscribe" function can be added which will allow you to receive postings by email. Permission of each contributor would be required.

4. When we get messages like "HEY, it's really sllooooooowww, are you guys on drugs or just asleep?!", we'll have to respond respectfully.

5. Many other enhancements to other parts of the Kitco site will be started. Expect improved charting for current and historical prices, easier to find news headlines, quicker price updates. Even those who pay nothing would benefit.

I'm aware that charging for access to "full-text" mode may spell the beginning of the end of the group. But it shouldn't. Other discussion groups on the net don't even have a full text and offer ONLY the equivalent of our short text mode. I guess they already knew what we had to learn.

This a risk that must be taken since it is no longer possible for Kitco to continue financing the data transfer requests. I'm hoping that most of you will go for the "full text" option so we can continue making improvements as outlined above. A poor showing might possibly cover our present costs, but provide for little else.

Once again, I invite your comments.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:00 - ID#238422)
Just an interesting fact - a special so called
"medical glue" ( BF-6 ) was intensively used in Russia
since 1960's. I used it on myself a couple of times.
Glues and seals small and medium size cuts very
effectively and and speeds up recovery...

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:00 - ID#25867)
Almost forgot
If there are enough subscribers we'd immediatley begin work on an index so you could search all messages back to April 1996.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:01 - ID#57232)
Wavepackets -- loosely, but intuitively described -- Mathematicians please look the other way!
Earl: My neurons are barely able to fire -- up since 4AM my time. I think you are right that the mathematical term 'convolution' is appropriate, in a way: The inverse and forward wavepacket transforms are like Fourier transforms, where the initial time series is multplied by another time function -- a complex sine wave, and integrated over time. This convolution transforms the time series into a frequency spectrum, without loss of information. A similar multiplication of this frequency series by a set of complex sine waves, and integration over frequency space ( reverse 'convulution' ) , and we can reconstruct the original time series. But fourier analysis is poorly suited for 'chaotic' time series such as that of the markets, since the resulting frequency spectrum tells us little about non-repetitive ( non-stationary ) time series.

Now with wavepacket analysis the forward transform involves multiplying the time series data with wave packets ( discrete little things that are zero everywhere except in a narrow region of time, instead of the fourier sine wave, which exists for all time ) . Each region of time might for example represent one fibonacci series time interval duration. Many wave packets must be carefully chosen so that the time intervals of these packets match the hidden signal within the noise -- the fibonacci series/elliot wave time intervals. Also the wave packets must be an 'orthogonal set' so that a forward transform of the data with these defined wave packets can be mathematically defined so that the reverse transform from 'wave packet space' always returns the original time series signal. Now this 'wave packet space' is much more interesting than fourier frequency space, as one can actually see how well or how poorly the data fits the fibonacci series. Also, one can reconstruct simplfied time series reverse transforms with some of the wavelets missing -- so that one can see cyclic or non-cyclic time trends normally hidden in the original data.

Now I have left out several other complicating features. First, there are criteria that the forward and reverse transforms must meet so that one can predict future trends ( what we really all want to do! ) , and secondly if one does not know the actual wavepackets one wants to use, iterative calculations must be made. One could actually devise a smart program that could 'learn' how to generate the wavepackets by using prior data. This would work very much like a neural network, the 'learning' process being the same as recalculating the wavepackets.

All the above work -- somewhat daunting -- is worthwhile if you see the fibonacci series fall out of a wavelet ( simplified wave packet ) analysis of the DOW -- something impossible with Fourier series analysis.

I will be honest with you -- right now I understand the basic concept -- which is clearly Nobel-prize worthy -- but I don't know what the formulas of the appropriate wavepackets should be. The ideal situation would be a set of wavepackets especially designed for market time series, so that you would not have to recalculate them every time -- and this would save much computer time. The system would then only need to 'learn' what the coefficients are for these packets.

Hope this helps.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:06 - ID#153102)
Your eloquence on the shabbiness of Mid-East monarchs makes me almost regret I ever expounded with approval on the implications of their insistence on being paid for substance with substance.

Despite his public works achievements, SH still looks to me like a despot and a tyrant. Every tyrant is popular with some. Here as there, it remains true that " The evils of tyranny are rarely seen but by him who resists it."
John Hay: Castilian Days, II, 1872

For the record and to remove any doubt, I oppose any bombing campaign and oppose continued sanctions.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:07 - ID#372344)
@ Word on the Street.....
BBC late tonight reported that RIOTS are occuring daily in Indonesia
against the minority Chinese store owners, as they are forced to raise prices, in almost every city now.....Also Australia tourism is dead in the water....It seems that an Air Force officer charged with adultery is
publicly questioning the double standard of the affairs of Commander and Chief BJ and Monica being tolerated but no luck for troops who commit same, they are discharged.....Former Fed Gov. Lindsey say "US must
stop Japan Bashing"...."Japan is 2nd largest economy it cannot be bullied around" also"US cannot count on Japan to solve Asia crisis"
adding " One year ago the US treasury Dept. strongly opposed a plan
by Japan to issue a GIANT cheque to bail out Asia,"..... He also stated that the Asia "glitch" is far from over adding "Japan's markets have
been moving up on the stimoulous package with pressure from the Gov"
and he expects that market to begin to turn down by March 31, adding
"that is when the US markets will again realize that this Asian crisis
is not over"......
One wonders if the Iraq "thing" will be draged out to divert further attention from the obvious economic pitfalls ahead....
stay tuned....

John Disney__A
(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:12 - ID#24135)
Demonization of Iraq ...
For Oris
Understand Robin William's Russian was okay in the movie.
Do you recall?? Glad you saw it.
For Oldman .. Excellent thoughtful post. Agree every word.
Yeltzin, half full of vodka, makes more sense than US government

(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:14 - ID#339212)

Bart, I understand your rationale, however,

The ultimate effect can be that those dedicated subscribers ultimately become the monopoly because they feel they want their moneys' worth.

Resulting in: excessive postings, lots of chat, unrelated subjects, political propaganda, etc. Will you refund their money if they don't adhere to rules?? If rules are not followed now, why would they be followed when subscription is enforced?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:17 - ID#45181)
To clear it up
mozel: Saddam is no bargain. He is really just a "village thug", who used the popularity of socialist politics to gain control of a government. A time honored practice, to be sure, as Messrs. Hitler, Roosevelt, and Klinton can surely attest. Brutish as he is, it is not worth a single .223 round to differentiate between him and the other tyrants in the area. The hatred of the common people for the Kleptocratic ruling families in those countries would make short work of their oppressors if American support were withdrawn.

IMO, it is criminal to kill innocent people in that hapless land. It is worse to sacrifice even one of the brave men who fly our plains in such an enterprise. They volunteered to fight for their country. This fight aint that at all.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:18 - ID#57232)
I will subscribe!
Bart - You have my subscription! Could we use automatic billing to a charge card -- initiated on a secure link, or by a phone call? And -- can we ensure that 'lurkers' can still see the interactions? I gather the idea would be that if they wish to ask long questions, they must pay.

I wonder -- could you make one liners and single url posts free for the lurkers? Then lurkers could still post and maintain the Kitco spontaneity that makes this site so great! Perhaps you already said this and I did not understand. The lurkers would thus otherwise get the same access they have now, except they could not post long posts.

To be honest with you, I'm not sure why I am willing to pay when there are others much more knowledgable about the gold markets than me -- I think it is because I learn better this way than with short posts. Hopefully others like my input.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:23 - ID#330175)
Bart sounds good to MOI..................................................*go gold*
USA 2 Belarus 1 @ end of first period ( pretty 'sad' if they can't even beat )

(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:23 - ID#153102)
1. Limit the size of this comment space I'm typing nto.
2. Solicit banner and link ads from within the PM and brokerage industry.
3. Reduce the size of the time slot intervals.
4. Transmit only what is new since the last update request from within an interval.

These steps would address the bandwidth issue. They would not fund the other general site improvements in your list.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:28 - ID#286230)
BART: I won't subscribe. C$9.95 will always be $9.95 to me. Anyway I only started to use the full text recently so going back to the short text is no problem. I don't see that this will reduce the extraneous BS that now constitutes 90% of the postings here but I'm sure you know better than me what is needed.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:31 - ID#57232)
Indonesian riots -- predictable -- no fancy analysis needed.
Tzadeak: Unfortunately, human behavior is often quite predictable, isn't it? Those who did not make the effort to go out and make an independent living are upset because others -- mostly the minority Chinese population of nearly 6 million -- were much more industrious. A similar process has already happened in the big cities of the US, and will happen again. All we have to do is think about where the greatest concentrations of individuals who depend on others for their employment ( or worse -- welfare ) are. During the depression in the 30's welfare and retirement was virtually non-existent, and many lived directly off the land. Now, in our infinite wisdom, we have attracted many to the welfare system, and they have lost their skills of self-sufficiency.

I just hope that Jin is as clever at hiding himself and his family as he is at getting us the news about SEAsia about 24hours early.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:40 - ID#255151)

Bart--As I understand it, for about a half gram of Gold a month, we get to support the best Gold discussion group around? Sounds like a damn good investment to me. I'm in.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:40 - ID#57232)
Bart -- One last idea for the night
Bart: When gold rallies, this site will be inundated. So, if our little Kitco world is to survive, it will need to be upgraded significantly. If it remains as it is -- I think all would aggree that very soon virtually no one will be able to use it.

Thus -- regardless -- this site must generate some income for you.

Hope this helps. Good night to everyone!

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:41 - ID#25867)
Let me clarify
The monthly charge is only to be able to VIEW messages in "full text" mode. Posting is free. Registering is free. Using "short text" mode is free.

In fact it is quite possible to have your posting privilges revoked , but continue your subscription to "full text" access. There would be no refund if you have to stop contributing since that's not what you're paying for anyway.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:43 - ID#393224)
9.95 loonies
C$9.95/month is peanuts and the best value/C$ deal going. The information I have received on this site has added immeasurably to my trading bottom line. Even lurkers should be happy to pay 33 cents/day for the best financial and "life" education available on the net.

One little trade, folks, based on the wisdom received on this site will pay for ten years of Kitco fees. Hell--that's just in financial terms. Food for the mind and soul are chucked in for free!!!

Don't forget to add the fees for your divorce!!! Harr harr!! Actally, my Kitco widow puts up with my long absenses as long as I'm makin' money.

Bart--good on yer, mate!!!

PS-- can we pay in 'real' money??

(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:45 - ID#339212)
@ JTF re: Kitco revenue

When gold rallies, I will have better things to do with my time.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:48 - ID#31868)
I understand you last post and I am concerned about the high density population areas in the US especially. My conscience nags at me thought because there are many inside of those situations that are caught up in a vicious circle.

Sure you could say, "they always have the choice to leave." But sometimes, many times it is not that easy. The same system that ensnares them, keeps them down. I know many solid hard working people caught in these situations and my heart goes out to them for they will feel the full brunt of the coming downturn, and most if not all they have achieved may be destroyed.

I personally cannot stand to see that give up, helpless feeling in peoples eyes, especially when there is so much that can be done, but is not.

Re: the comment above about the choice to leave I am not insinuating you would say that, just a manner of example.

I too wish Jin and family safety in the madness going on over there.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:54 - ID#57232)
Can you think of a better idea?
Myrmidon: Sorry you feel that way. When gold rallies, you are right that few will have time to post. These are often short and fast. But --- we all know that the gold markets are fickle -- and fraught with 'land mines' that the equity markets do not have. One of the costs of our choice of investment.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 01:55 - ID#31868)

Date: Sat Feb 14 1998 01:41
Bart Kitner ( Kitco ) ( Let me clarify ) ID#25867:

The monthly charge is only to be able to VIEW messages in "full text" mode. Posting is free. Registering is free. Using "short text" mode is free.

Cheese and crackers Bart, you certainly have patience.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 02:05 - ID#28585)
Bart, one concern I have about your excellent web-site is the inevitable inundation that will occur when gold suddenly attracts major interest once again. ( Already, the significant spike in silver interest is probably presenting a good deal of your current bandwith troubles ) .
For all we know, the imminent "gold mania" could occur as early as Tuesday. Who knows?

As it stands, the web-site is obviously over-loaded. There must be some methodology devised to allow rapid access to regular posters especially as gold interest heats up, thereby attracting all varieties of "lookie-loos."

My own humble suggestion is to split the posting into categories:

1 ) Gold and Silver Topics Only
2 ) Platinum & Palladium Topics Only
3 ) Political/Economic Issues Related to PM's.
4 ) Humor & Satire Related to PM's
5 ) Miscellaneous PM posts.

If posters break the rules of the categories, then simply preclude them from posting at all ( if that is technically feasible ) .

In any case, I wish you the best in devising a practical solution to the Kitco access problem.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 02:05 - ID#57232)
Really should be asleep -- last post
tolerant1: I think I understand where you are coming from. Most of the individuals we are talking about will not leave. What needs to be done is to move them off welfare and teach them self sufficency -- not just how to get jobs, but how to live off the land. The USA has more than enough land for this, fortunately.

This can't be done in a large city. I consider myself a bit too much of an idealist -- but in this case -- I am not at all optimistic that anything significant will be done until after the riots.

When do the 'powers that be' put up the street lights at the intersection? Before or after someone dies?

I saw some Ahmish at work last weekend -- the Pennsylvania Dutch. And I thought -- what we need is for them to offer refresher courses in self-sufficiency. Good thing they have survived without full integration into our society.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 02:10 - ID#240316)
As much as I hate to see this become a pay site, I can see the need. I think you have found about the least painful way to do it. I'll sign-up.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 02:11 - ID#57232)
The hard workers in the cities who have little savings
tolerant1: I missed one of your points. This is more difficult than the ones on welfare. But -- they will be capable of learning what to do if they are given the opportunity, won't they?

In an ideal world, they should be encouraged to move out of the big cities before anything bad happens -- life just isn't fair, is it?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 02:11 - ID#339212)
@ JTF re: Kitco solutions

There are 2 separate issues here:

1. The quality of posts
2. Revenue for Kitco

The first issue will not improve with subscription. This site will be monopolized for those who perceive themselves as "Market Analysts", where in fact they are hard core "Gold bugs". They will continue with statements such as "Go Gold", "World is collapsing", "Doom and Gloom", "Guns", Survival". Any opposing views will be viewed as unorthodox. This wraps-up the market analysts.

The second issue can be addressed with advertising.

If you want to improve the quality of posts I propose:

At the end of the week, posters and no posters send an email to Bart commenting on the best and worst posts. All of us partake. Bart then, removes the worst 10 offenders.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 02:12 - ID#330175)
@ The End
G'Nite all from the far east coast~~~~~~

(Sat Feb 14 1998 02:20 - ID#206358)

Recently,the reatil/whole sale buziness really dragged us badly.The local gold markets is nearly gone.Most of the time,just spend my time watching the dead market...!
The currencies looked weaker these days...and so this pull down the regions stocks too!The virus just go around and around and around....seem liked never ending!"TIME"is crucial now....the longer they hold,the harder they suffered,isn't?Now, actually,we just prayed for the miracle turn up!Or else,stop sinking.that's all!
Just feel the tensions day by day,minute by minute....waiting in vain.....!
Then again,the el nino wheather really turn back,the heat shoot up!The
HAZE start to blow again....making things more WORST,BLUR!

(Sat Feb 14 1998 02:22 - ID#41229)
Oldman @ Market to 10,0000
I'm having difficulties in seeing how the market can continue to the level of 10,000 and if it does will not retain. The data doesn't add up in my opinion. I have some reason of why I feel that the market will not reach that level or substain continued growth.

1. Major trade imbalance due to cheap goods from asia that look to get even cheaper. ( Taking work away from U.S. workers, profits from u.s. companies ) In flows to market going down. New housing starts were down 9% last month, lowest in 10yrs.

2. If we bomb Iraq we will destroy infrastructure which will piss of Russia ( Iraq has 80 billion debt to Russia ) Will align Arabs against U.S. , oil sure to go up. We could lose all allies in area except Isreal.
Would also give Russia an excuse to enter area militarily.

3. If Clinton is removed from office, the real budget numbers are going to come out since next in command will not have to accept failure on someone elses policies. Major cut backs in social programs with tax increases will have to happen in order for investors of U.S. debt will have faith that interest on debt can continued to be paid. Clinton adminstration selling all expendable ( in their opinion ) assets of U.S. to improve balance sheet.

The market is being driven by pure emotion, which can change at any given moment. In the short run I may loose, but in the long run I will have gained.

Things are getting beyond absurd. Last night on the ABC evening news with Peter Jennings, they showed a minute man missile being launched while footage was ran, Peter told us that during a test fire of an minute man missle launch, the missle ran into space junk in the stratosphere and was destroyed.

This game of liars poker is getting extremely dangerous.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 02:25 - ID#41229)
Count me in for fee to help increase the performance of sight.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 02:29 - ID#339212)

My concern is that Bart will get 100 subscribers providing Kitco with $6,000 US only, it will decrease hits, we will form a family group and everything will die.

There are some expert marketeers like Yahoo, who provide message boards free. A lot of people will go to these boards.

IMHO Yahoo has an expert marketing department and they have done their homework. Do not try to re-invent the wheel, copy the pros.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 02:34 - ID#28585)
This is a site that is extremely unique. I wonder about its viability in the event posters must pay a fee.

Ultimately, the only way to find out is to do it. Yet, if it proves to be an error in judgement, then significant damage could be inflicted on the forum.

The greatest danger is that the fee might inspire one of the regular posters to set up a competitive, FREE web-site analogous to Kitco. If this person comes up with a more compelling concept, then defectors to his site may never return to Kitco.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 02:44 - ID#45181)
You're mostly right
refer: I agree with most of what you say. About 6 months before those bad things start to happen, the stock market will top out, and gold will bottom. The market topped about 6 months before Saddam marched in '90. It topped in '73 about 6 months before the cheese got binding with Nixon. Dont ask me how it does it, but the DJIA forecasts these things about 6 months in advance. As to Klinton, I dont think he is gonna get in any trouble his people cant handle. As I've said before, I think Hillary will succeed him and the constitution will be changed and they will die of old age in the White House. I said this when he was at 38% in the polls. I still say it with him at twice that. When every one, including the drones, is allowed to vote, and the choice is clear, socialism will win. Klinton is a political genius. Every person in this country who depends on a handout from the government now knows who will give out the goodies. The show is over. Presidential elections from here on out will be pure sham. Good night all. ~poof~

(Sat Feb 14 1998 02:46 - ID#339212)

You are absolutely correct. Once the damage is done, there will be no recourse. The fee is not the issue. I will gladly pay $60 USfor an improved site, but in my career I have learned one thing. LEARN FROM THE PROS.

Is Bart willing to take this gamble?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 02:59 - ID#41229)
And I thought I had a bleak outlook, yours scares me more!

(Sat Feb 14 1998 03:19 - ID#284255)
Change of heart?
It was only recently that you said that the Dow was heading towards 3000.
And that every Dow stock would be showing negative earnings by the end of the year.

What bought about the change of heart?

Swing chart updated:
The oscillation of the NYSE has reached a reading of 15.
This has only happened three times in the last few years.
Jan 95, July96 and April97 and we all know what followed.
Perhaps the same is to happen again.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 03:19 - ID#255151)

A gentlemen's wager? My prediction is that both Clintons will be out of office before July 4, 1998.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 04:10 - ID#341214)
Oldman (your 19:58), APH (Silver, of course), Bart (lurkers and bandwidth)
Oldman: I agree with you in your 19:58 message as to why SH did not use biological weapons in 1991. He realized that he would be taken out personally along with Iraq if he did. My question is why is SH inflicting all this economic damage on Iraq by not cooperating fully with the inspection teams. The amounts they have lost in oil revenues over the years must be staggering. The only cogent answers seem to be either 1 ) There really is nothing there but the US Gov has decided not to let Iraq out of it's box for now and uses the search for non-existent weapons of mass destruction as an excuse for denying them their oil revenues, or 2 ) There really is something there and SH will sacrifice anything in order to retain it's capabilities with the intended plan to eventually use them, most likely on Israel.

Due to the amounts they have lost in oil revenues, I'd have to say that they have something to hide. That's what common sense tells me anyway.

I feel we are fighting Israel's battle for them. Israel has probably told the US Gov that if they don't do something about these weapons then Israel will, just like they took out Iraq's weapons grade nuclear reactor. Therefore, the US Gov has decided to come in with our "big stick" to get the job done and hopefully dodge a general Middle East war that could easily be generated by Israel launching a preemptive attack on Iraq.

I think Israel has as much right to exist as a country as any other. For decades they have listened to Arab threats to exterminate them. I do not hear similiar threats coming from Israe, only as reprisals. If tomorrow all Arab countries were to renounce violence against Israel ( not that I'd believe them ) then I'd no longer support our country attacking Iraq. As long as I believe the Arabs will work towards the destruction of a country then I'll support the efforts of this country to prevent that.

BTW, I don't buy anyones BS line about Iraq diverting attention from MonicaGate. Come on folks, unless they start WW III over there, sex wins hands down!

APH: Hey, how about that sloooow 4th wave in silver, eh. Are they waiting for everyone to fall asleep before the final move up? In the near term I'm hoping we will break below that floor it's been building, maybe even close that gap at, where is it, 6.60? A move to 6.40 would be fantastic and then say up to 8.40 for one of those $10,000 moves you mentioned. Do you see any possibilities in that scenario? Could we see that by the end of February?

Bart: Hey Bart, do you realize it's the lurkers at Kitco that get the most benefit here. They make no contributions but are still able to take advantage of the knowledge posted here. I would imagine that lurkers outnumber posters by a great margin so they are probably responsible for most of the bandwidth use too. Perhaps the use of bandwidth would go down if you offered, for a price, to package and e-mail the Kitco text. It would be a lot smaller in zip format. The advantage is that you don't have to fight with the posters to get at Kitco's valuable info. That's a service I would definetely pay for. We might even be able to work together. I was thinking about writing a Visual Basic program a few months down the road that would give a Kitco reader various ways to manage Kitco text. I won't charge anything for it. It will be my contribution to Kitco for all the invaluable knowledge that I have gained from mostly lurking the past 18 months.

Here's another thought. Assuming lurkers are using the greatest percentage of bandwidth, what if you zipped the text daily ( or maybe twice a day ) and made it available for download. Since lurkers are likely to be more interested in the information and less interested in seeing the comments as they are posted perhaps they would go for the zipped files rather than the live forum. Perhaps this would reduce the bandwidth use to the point where it's not necessary to charge anyone. Yet. Basically, I'm suggesting that you attempt to move as much reading of Kitco text off line as possible.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 04:17 - ID#284255)
 MARKET "LESSON": Why the crash came on Oct. 3, 1929, is as mysterious
 ( and as unimportant ) as why the World War chanced to begin on Aug. 4,
 1914. If some trace the War no further than to an archducal
 assassination, then others might trace the Crash to a wide variety of
 specific moments. Vital point is the undermining of popular confidence
 that ended in the crash.

 Causes of this undermining were several: Warnings from the Federal
 Reserve Board and other prophets of disaster--warnings which scoffed at
 when given, nevertheless filled the Market with a conviction of sin.
 The September slump ( currently ignored in favor of the peculiar theory
 that the Market crashed without warning ) wa of tremendous importance in
 its indication that a Market which could survive only by constant rises
 had reached the limits of its climb.

 Slowly the Market began to realize that 1929 might be an abnormal,
 high-water year instead of one more level in a rising tide. The Market
 had mortgaged itself with the future as its security. If that future
 did not continue rosy, the security had disappeared.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 04:20 - ID#398105)
chas............sorry for not getting back to you, BUT........

I have a system error on my email, and I cannot access it.

You will be allowed to open an Aussie bank account, subject to presentation of your passport.

I am not sure on what approvals you will require in taking gold out of the country, you best enquire at the Aussie consulate.

I cannot recall off hand your other questions.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 04:20 - ID#341214)
tolerant 1 (your 01:55)
tol: I think Bart also mentioned that he hoped most of us would go for the full text mode. Hint hint.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 04:40 - ID#198170)
fundaMETAList - good ideas
I don't post much but lurk quite a bit. My schedule doesn't allow a lot of consistency so I often try to catch up on a couple days posts at a time. Zip files of a days posts would cut down on bandwidth and be more convenient to boot. I do think it would be reasonable for all to pay a little if any are to pay.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 04:47 - ID#333126)
bandwidth and charging on kitco (re: bart)
if the main problem is the lurkers and their utilising the "full text" mode, couldn't a temporary reprieve be something along the lines of a mirror site carrying zipped files of archived "full text" articles for each day ( or the previous 3 days or whatever ) ?

even if the charging for "full text" services is implemented, I strongly suggest that previous sessions full text articles be available via zipped files. this way, everone's happy - lurkers ( me included ) don't have to click through every link to find the good articles, bandwidth is reduced ( zipped is smaller and less overhead for sending one file vs. many files ) and those who want to carry out a real-time discussion live on kitco can still do so...

think mirroring - how many of you out there could possibly put up some webspace for reducing the bandwidth jam at I could certainly contribute in my small way ...

(Sat Feb 14 1998 04:53 - ID#252227)
Viewing fee @ Bart - If you limit the commentators to paying viewers only you'll cut

(Sat Feb 14 1998 05:07 - ID#252227)
Bart - if you limit the commentators to paying viewers only you cut out a lot of crap

and improve the quality of the comments IMHO...that's what SI Gold Price Monitor thread does successfully ( although through an initial fee only ) ....Besides, they have a Gold Price Clubhouse thread to which you have access by invitation only...Improving quality in turn justifies a higher price from the viewer....Busy people don't have a lot of time for jokes and hate to go through a lot of it to find what they need...Time is money...even here!!!

Bill Buckler
(Sat Feb 14 1998 05:37 - ID#257234)
Open Letter To Bart Kitner
Bart, I have been lurking on this site since the early days and have done a fair amount of posting, not as much in recent months as the quality of the discussion has declined and I have grown busier with my own website. Despite that, I would regard it as a tragedy if this discussion group ceased to function. Here's my 2 cents worth.

First - Full Text Mode: I have never used it. I have never seen a need to use it. There are certain posters on Kitco ( not as many as there used to be ) whose posts I will almost automatically expand. For the rest, I can get enough of an idea from the subject and first line ( in short text mode ) mode to see if I want to read further. If I want to read a posting, I expand that posting. The idea of downloading every word posted on Kitco every time I log on is not something I have ever contemplated doing.

No wonder your bandwidth costs are rocketing. I respectfully suggest that you do away altogether with the facility for logging on under "full text" mode. If someone wants to read a complete text, all they have to do is click the "more" link.

Second: To raise money for Kitco, which I hasten to add, you should have already earned by your efforts, I suggest this. Password protect the discussion group. Issue username/passwords with the payment of whatever fee you deem suitable. Stress to all paying participants that the guidelines for Kitco are there to be followed and request that they read them. Warn in advance that gross breach of these guidelines will result in that poster's password being disabled. Your decision on this matter should be final. Oh, and don't offer refunds either.

Third: Advertising? Got nothing against it. When it comes on TV though, I usually reach for the "mute" button. I probably see 100 banners on websites for every one I click through. But then again, I personally don't see the WWW as either a TV substitute, or an entertainment medium. I see it as having two major functions. First, information. Second, and far more important, dissemination of IDEAS! That is precisely where Kitco shone, and sometimes, still shines.

The great beauty of the WWW is that anyone can say anything they want about any subject they care to address. It takes some effort to put up a website, believe me, I know all about it. It takes less to post to a discussion group. The results can be even more valuable, though, because the facility is there for instant discussion and elaboration.

The downside of this is, of course, that many people don't have much to say. So it has always been. But, the "freebie" mentality that pervades many areas of the WWW notwithstanding - TANSTAAFL. Bart, Kitco's discussion group is costing YOU money. You are not, if your recent postings are anything to go by, getting a reasonable return, either in cash or in satisfaction. Let those who simply want to be disruptive vent their spleen using their own bandwidth. Let them put up their own discussion group or website.

Whatever you decide, I hope it works out for you. I would really hate to see the demise of this discussion group. Oh, and I hope it goes without saying, I stand eager to buy my own way onto your site, as a lurker and an occasional participant.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 05:38 - ID#228283)
Pay per view..

I am basically a lurker at this sight,viewing for only a short time. But, I've learned more in the last few months from some of the most knowledgeble people I've never meet, nor will meet. This sight is IMO the best on the web. It has proved to me that there is intelligent life on this your price...I have several GOLD cards to cover the cost.
Best regards from the chilly midwest,

(Sat Feb 14 1998 05:40 - ID#407135)
Full Text
Does the idea of charging for those running in full text mode mean that unless we pay we cannot view the full text of any message we have first accessed in short text mode or does it just apply to those who use the full text viewing mode?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 05:47 - ID#407135)
full text vs short text
I think Bill has already answered my question as I was labouresly typing it out. Like him I certainly dont run full text and only expand the few comments that look interesting and skip much that doesn't.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 05:48 - ID#248180)
@ Bart's FEES - Ya want white or yeller Gold, Son?
I very much like the site as is and I will be pleased to pay to continue my access and participation. Please do not make drastic changes. The whole gang of posters, watchers, informers,investors, analysts, advisors, traders, legal eagles, promoters, scholars and lurkers make this site a great and rich talk feast. Where do I send the money?

Mr. Oldman: Sir, you have been on an absolute role. Excellent comments and opinions based on knowledge, expressed with wisdom. Three cheers!! Thank you. It is always a pleasure to read anothers views and have them expressed so clearly that the reader thinks they were his own.

Bill Buckler
(Sat Feb 14 1998 05:50 - ID#257234)
Follow Up
Bart, name your price, mate. You've earned it!

(Sat Feb 14 1998 05:53 - ID#233199)
Pay per view...

Let's see.. that's $8.00 US and 1 grain of Gold.....?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 05:59 - ID#266105)

Blowin' in the Window

How much pee could a people pull
If a people could pull any pee?
How many cows could a coworker ork
If a coworker could ork any cows?
Yes and how much dough could Windows win
If Windows could win any dough?
The answer, my pal, floats in the Grand Canal,
The answer floats in the Grand Canal.

How many cons could a conductor duct
If a conductor could duct any cons?
How many pros could a programmer gram
If a programmer could gram any pros?
Yes and how many knees could a hackney hack,
If a hackney could hack any knees?
The answer, you schnook, is not in any book,
The answer is not in any book.

How many disks could a diskette have et
If a diskette could have et any disks?
How many cards could a cardboard board
If a cardboard could board any cards?
Yes and how much wind could a windbreaker break
If a windbreaker could break any wind?
The answer, you fool, is never taught in school,
The answer is never taught in school.

How many strongs could an Armstrong arm,
If an Armstrong could arm any strongs?
How many Dems could a modem mow,
If a modem could mow any Dems?
Yes and how many tellies could a telephone phone,
If a telephone could phone any tellies?
The answer, you nut, will bite you on the butt,
The answer will bite you on the butt.

How many Os could Play-Doh have played,
If Play-Doh could play any Os?
How many fins could a muffin muff,
If a muffin could muff any fins?
Yes and how many bows could a Rambo ram,
If a Rambo could ram any bows?
The answer, my buddy, will make your eyes turn bloody,
The answer will make your eyes turn bloody.

How many Lollies could a lollipop pop
If a lollipop could pop any Lollies?
How many bullets could a bulletin tin
If a bulletin could tin any bullets?
Yes and how many cabbies could a cabinet net
If a cabinet could net any cabbies?
The answer, you nerd, is one you've never heard,
The answer is one you've never heard.

How many minis would a Miniscribe scribe
If a Miniscribe could scribe any minis?
How many worms would a WORM drive drive
If a WORM drive could drive any worms?
Yes and how many mothers would a motherboard board
If a motherboard could board any mothers?
The answer, my frien', is ERROR #10,
The answer is ERROR #10.

- stolen

(Sat Feb 14 1998 06:02 - ID#432221)

(Sat Feb 14 1998 06:05 - ID#432221)
I am the sole survivor
I'm trying to get in, the door is locked. Bart, can I please come in?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 06:47 - ID#243212)
Bart - did you get my message re only paying viewers would commentate ????
I signed off then and trying to get back in now to see if there were any responses....Bart, would you please let me know...thanks.... I must be one of the rare species to survive this cleansing :- ) ) ) ) )

(Sat Feb 14 1998 07:06 - ID#432221)
what the hell happened here

Did saddam gas Canada?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 07:10 - ID#243180)
@Bart re: 00:54 post
You posted: "... A mere ... $9.95 Canadian Dollars which is only about $6.90 USD ... the cost in US Dollars may soon be closer to $2.00 monthly."

I POST AGAIN: Let's make an option to allow payment made via purchases of PMs from Kitco. I'd rather buy gold from you than send a check each month. I get the bootie and you get your ++$2/month.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 07:22 - ID#238295)
Iraq and the markets
OLDMAN: I agrree thaqt stocks will go up ( though probably not to Dow 10,000 ) and gold will go down ( but not a hell of a lot ) after US bombs Iraq. But that will be the time to dump stocks and pile into the yellow. All downhill from there for stocks and up, up, and away for gold!

The longer-term consequences of US agreesssion against Iraq will be a tremendous backlash against our nation throughout the Muslim world. The markets will not be able to ignore this for very long.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 08:03 - ID#26793)
More Asian countries interested in dollar avoidance program

(Sat Feb 14 1998 08:06 - ID#432221)
Is it fair to presume

that the certain Arab/Muslim backlash resulting from the military strike against Iraq will manifest in oil price spike, triggering substantial inflation?
Or, is the oil market somehow protected from emotional influence by laws of supply and demand.
I believe both are true, and regardless, $300 spot is a no lose
prospect ( for physical ) .

(Sat Feb 14 1998 08:07 - ID#26793)
More than 75% of Indonesian corporate debt is in current default

(Sat Feb 14 1998 08:07 - ID#359316)
WetGold Feb 14 1998 07:10
"Let's make an option to allow payment made via purchases of PMs from Kitco."
I fully support that notion. Do you ship to England? What extras would there be in pounds sterling and postage over your US$ prices? My local coin shop has horrendous premiums.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 08:14 - ID#26793)
Japanese bank alarms going off and the market just yawns.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 08:17 - ID#26793)
Central Fund of Canada
CEF net asset value US$4.75 ( Thursday close ) discount 5.3%

(Sat Feb 14 1998 08:18 - ID#288295)

Prices ( and in this case participation ) are set at the margin.....IMNSHO fee for full text service will destroy this site - people will go back to wherever they were before they found it. I ( for one ) am fully invested in PM's and PM mining stocks. I don't need the information, although I have much enjoyed the company.

grant - maybe they're on strike.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 08:22 - ID#26793)
Korean court orders Korean bank to withhold $189 mil. payment owed Morgan Bank

(Sat Feb 14 1998 08:25 - ID#432221)
Bullion on the NET

I live 90 mi. from the nearest bullion trader ( that I know of ) .
Is there a safe, reliable way to buy physicals from my home?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 08:26 - ID#26793)
More on Morgan Bank-Korean Bank problem. Serious stuff.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 08:33 - ID#26793)
Moody's cuts rating on Newmont Mining debt. Poor cash flow, low gold price

(Sat Feb 14 1998 08:37 - ID#26793)
Ted Arnold bashes gold again (Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

(Sat Feb 14 1998 08:42 - ID#26793)
Gold markets being used to launder drug money

(Sat Feb 14 1998 08:44 - ID#26793)
Korean stocks down 4.36% in Saturday morning trading

Psilver Psyched
(Sat Feb 14 1998 08:50 - ID#216217)
1 ) .The downloading of advertising banners takes too long. If you want me to pay for service OK but don't then also burden me with additional time downloading commercials.
2 ) . I would suggest you must be a paying subscriber to post.
3 ) . When you get ANOTHERS credit card info you tell us whether he appears to be a person of rank. ( Oh, but you already know by his ISP address where he is posting from... )

(Sat Feb 14 1998 08:51 - ID#333131)
Donald re mania and presidential polling
Take a gander at the graph of the S&P and presidential approval in Heard of The Street this morning.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 08:53 - ID#432221)
Donald thanks for all the cool links.How is it that you & I are the only

ones here? Never seen that before.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 09:03 - ID#333131)
That's Up and Down Wall Street - Alan Abelson

(Sat Feb 14 1998 09:08 - ID#330175)
Mornin from Sunny Cape Breton...............................*go gold*
Time for a ten mile walk to try-n shake the cob-webs ( good )

(Sat Feb 14 1998 09:23 - ID#410114)
Royal Oak

Royal Oak bonds are currently yeilding 16 % what are the Newmonts?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 09:31 - ID#257136)
Bart covered ALL BASES!!
I personally must congratulate Bart on his perspicacity as well as his generosity.
To have dreamed up a site as fulfilling and entertaining as this one was no mean feat.
To have the kindness to promulgate its growth shows magnanimity beyond that of most folks.
Who among us would finance such an endeavor?
As to cost, I shan't have any increase, as I already scroll by the posts with the dubious monikers attached, as I am sure many of you scroll by mine.
I see no real change, unless some of the Professed Big Spenders and Hard Hitters, etc. suddenly feel their bluff has been called and they must pay the tuition!
Whatever! Again, congrats Bart, on being as near ol' Solomon as any of the posters and closer to WISDOM THAN MOST OF US!!

Mr. Mick
(Sat Feb 14 1998 10:02 - ID#345321)
Hey, where did everybody go?
Is this the right page?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 10:09 - ID#156161)
Mr. Mick
I was looking at my gold in the morning sun; but we're all still here.
X the previous time slot.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 10:09 - ID#26793)
I saw the graph. Now I want to know who gives you this inside stuff from Barron's so you can impress us a day early with wise insights?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 10:19 - ID#26793)
I am not familiar with the Newmont bonds. I can't find them in the NY or Amex bond list. They must trade over the counter.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 10:22 - ID#156161)
Here's a place to start ( ) , but you should call a bunch of places for prices when you want to buy as the price varies and there are all kinds of different policies regarding shipping and insurance.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 10:24 - ID#26793)
Important repost on Asian labor costs and possible repercussion.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 10:25 - ID#426220)
SIX NEW ANALYTICAL REPORTS AT golden-eagle (sans the en)

World-acclaimed analysts in their particular areas of expertise:

Profit From Silver & Gold -- Mooney

Countdown To Chaos - Y2K

Canadian Petroleum Perspective -- Robb Moss

The Inger Letter Forecast

General Market View For February 1998 -- Wayne Crimi


See golden-eagle Hot-News Box at URL ( just delete the letters en in golden below ) :

(Sat Feb 14 1998 10:31 - ID#342282)
Haggis-- don't be sorry
My puter has been down mostly for about 2 weeks. Thanx for info. Other question was is there an asking price on tract of land we discussed.Thanx again. I'll check consulate.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 10:51 - ID#26793)
Dell Computer VS: Gold
I did this exercise several months ago. Here is a current reality check update.

All the U.S. government owned gold, 261.7 mil ounces x $300.00 = $78.51 billion

All the shares of Dell Computer, 326,436,000 x $110.87 = $36.2 billion

Dell seems a mite bit overpriced, and gold is a whole lot underpriced. Back to reality. Does Warren Buffet do it this way when he buys silver?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 10:54 - ID#286230)
What is the sound of one Straw Grasping
Vronsky: Just found and read Milhouse's comments on the guru's recent silver purchases. While Buffett has the reputation for buying and holding he also buys and sells quickly as Milhouse says. The important point made is that the purchase may reflect the view that PM's are about to change direction and go up finally.

I'll take this opportunity to ask those who think that the collective wisdom of Kitco is important and unique to consider that the consensus at Kitco has been that gold was going up during the last 2 years. Why this misinformation has been considered to be valuable is a mystery to me as it has been to others who have been roughed up for their contrarian and accurate view. There have been many posts from those who state that following the Kitco consensus has resulted in the loss of their money--I can't recall any new millionaires taking the time to thank the Kitco site for the valuable information that changed their status.

However those who think that gold has been/is /will be going up may be correct one day and perhaps we have seen the first indication that the tide is seen to be turning by someone with an enviable track record.

Mr. Mick
(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:06 - ID#345321)
Sorry, but my browser got caught in the Twilight Zone..........
when I bring up this page, mine ( 10:02 am EST ) is the first posting. Usually the Aussies are posting throughout the night. Hey, what's the latest scoop on Iraq?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:06 - ID#254269)
@ Donald; Just saw your post re Dell's market cap. Do you know the m.c. of Microsoft ?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:10 - ID#254269)
Mr. Mick; the posts are organised by time slots (go to the top of your screen and
click on the slot you wish to view ) .

Mr. Mick
(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:12 - ID#345321)
Thanks Avalon and Forklift - I guess the server has changed a bit.
Used to get all postings for the day no matter what time slot was chosen.
Any news about Iraq?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:13 - ID#333131)
We're in a "bad news blackout" says Michael Metz

(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:15 - ID#31868)
You asked about buying metal over the net. you can accumulate and then have it delivered if you want. From just a pure purchasing viewpoing to take immediate delivery e-gold is not the way to go.

If you want to protect yourself from the banking collapse and therefore the collapse of the international system of payments e-gold is without question the way to go.

Concentrate on the difference between bank and system of payments, hopefully you will get it.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:17 - ID#287207)
More evidence of an international Central Banker-Gold producer Trilateralist conspiracy
From the Toronto Globe and Mail::::

Mr. Munk said he would be an idiot to try to guess where the

gold price would be by the end of the year. "Could we have guessed

that silver, universally described as the most unwanted commodity

produced by mankind, would be doubling in price when every other

commodity, from nickel, copper, aluminum and gold, has dropped by a

third?" ( Munk said ) Silver, of course, has made a comeback because of

a massive purchase by superinvestor Warren Buffett. It turns out that

Barrick has the largest proven reserves of silver in the world. "We were

ashamed of it until yesterday," Mr. Munk quipped. "It's amazing how

Mr. Buffett can change your feeling of embarrassment into a feeling of


Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:18 - ID#403159)
USA 260 TONS GOLD = 520,000 POUNDS ( 2000 LBS. = TON )
520,000 POUNDS = 832,000,000 OUNCES ( POUND= 16 OUNCES )

(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:19 - ID#410114)
Mining Co Bonds
Hello Donald:

They are OTC. The only reason I know about Royal oak bonds is because they were listed in the WSJ as a "big gainer" in thier High Yeild section. The quote was $74 up $2

(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:20 - ID#222231)
I am amazed at all of the HOLIER THAN THOU posters. Your service is tremendous and rewarding to ALL! I have noticed the complainers and bashers that believe they are GODS gift to mankind. If they spent half thier time posting relevant information instead of bashing those that are not as elitist or intelligent as they claim to be, your site would not be as inundated and jammed.
I apologise for some things I posted earlier on this forum that did not meet your format. I was new and did not realise it would cause such a negative reaction. I sincerely believe that there are lurkers out there that would love to post but are intimadated by these so called HOLIER THAN THOUS.
Once diverse opinions and thoughts are censored and controlled, we will all be no better than Hitler. Do'nt you really get tired of all the KISS

Mr. Mick
(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:22 - ID#345321)
Pete, don't sugar coat it.......
tell us how you really feel!:- )

(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:26 - ID#287207)
I agree with you Pete. I am fed up with it too. However when you have as many hopes for success pinned on the precious metals that have not performed you have to expect emotional criticism from those who have had their dreams dashed so far. This doesn't mean you have to sit idly by and take though.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:28 - ID#31868)
Heavy Hitter
I am positive that should be 260 million ounces.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:31 - ID#403159)
Just go to yahoo and type in the symbol
and then click on profile. The numbers
are all there for any company.

Voyeur Professor
(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:32 - ID#231101)
On Kitco's future

I would add my name to the growing list of those who would pay a fee for this site, but with a caveat that, unless you monitored site violations, I would drop my subscription. Both farfel at 2:05 this morning and Selbys recent post speak directly to my concerns. Farfels parameters would insure that subscribers would not be subsidizing psychotherapy for some posters who persist in offering emotional non-sequiturs and argumentum ad hominum posts that merely address their need for acting-out. And I believe farfels suggestions would allow for an occasional bit of facetiousness to keep the site linked to the human need, occasionally, to respond to market news with irony. I have always followed Byrons advice in "Don Juan" when he says, "If I laugh at any mortal thing, dear reader, tis that I may not weep." Though an academic, I am also a serious investor. So while I want a measure of seriousness, I also want to avoid any mechanistic devotion to my research. Selbys advice warns against the danger of making Kitco a cloistered site, a monolithic convent of similar-minded posters who will tolerate only those views that confirm their beginning premises. Sound gold investing, as Selby suggests, would have cautioned us all that storm clouds were building for the gold market last Spring. Serious research and debate should never silence the gadfly among us. Winston Churchill warned England for years about the dangers of Chamberlains ( "that sheep in sheeps clothing ) navet with regard to Europes darkening prospects for peace. We should not adopt the view that posters should only play the role of gold cheerleaders.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:40 - ID#403159)
Tolerant1 and Donald
My apologies. Could have sworn the US
had 260 tons. Per golden eagle site 260
million ounces. Donald has it right and
it is amazing to say the least. Gold is
tremendously undervalued.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:41 - ID#287207)
Gold's price now hitting high cost and short life producers
In 1996 the guessed at average cost of production was $275 an oz. It seems the 1997 guessed at cost was about $317. More mergers and closings are underway.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:41 - ID#348286)
@tolerant1 and HH
USA Gold reserves reported in millions of ounces, absolutely sure it is between 260 and 262 million ounces.
Canada holds just over 3 million ounces.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:41 - ID#162148)
Buy Signal
sharefin: I was WRONG. I thought that, at long last, Rubin,, had lost control. When the market moved powerfully into new highs and Klinton's polls shot into the stratosphere, just as the newest scandal exploded on the boob screen, it constituted the most powerful "Richard Dennis" buy signal of my lifetime. It means Rubin and the Boyz are still in control, and as long as they are, paper will reign supreme. Gold is honest. Paper is not. Rubin and the Boyz are crooks. Simple, when you think about it.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:43 - ID#254269)
Heavy Hitter; Thanks for Microsoft market cap info. I was only wanting it to
compare to US govt. gold and Dell as per Donald's immediately prior post. Thus, Microsoft $190 B;. US Govt Gold. $78 B.; Dell $36 B. I am not sure what all of this proves, but when seen in this light, Microsoft is worth TWICE the amount of gold owned by the US govt. ( most powerfull on the planet ) and Dell as well. As I say, I am not sure what this proves.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:48 - ID#31868)
Heavy Hitter
Whew!!! no kidding, I realized I used the word positive, one I was 99% sure, two, I did not think before using the word as I did not want to piss off any of the Monday Morning Quarterback realists over-running Kitco.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:49 - ID#254269)
Iraq. U.S. reconsidering options;

(Sat Feb 14 1998 11:49 - ID#348286)
@Hmmmmmm, some actually good news about GOLD
Per AP commodities report:
"Gold futures rose after Belian Central Bank governor Alfons Verplaetse said the 15 nation european union plans to keep "SOME" Gold in its reserves after its monetary union is completed.
The european cetral bank will hold assets after it is established in midyear."

------- Of great significance, this is comming from the mouth of one of the biggest sellers of CB Gold in the last 3 years.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:06 - ID#403159)
CB's own 300 billion in gold approx.
Could this be correct. With trillions and trillions
of dollars floating around the globe in equities
the amount of gold is really minimal. All this
chatter about huge supplies of gold the CB's
hold is being misread. However you never
hear how unreasonable the amount of money
in equities is. What if all the holders of equities
decide to sell. Couldn't be any worse than if the
CB's sold gold. If I had my choice of a huge market
sell off in either asset I would rather be in gold.
Equities have a long ways to fall.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:08 - ID#254269)
Salomon warns on China devaluation

(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:12 - ID#403277)
Speaking of math...
Heavy Hitter: Which weighs more, a pound of feathers or a pound of gold? Precious metals are measured in the Troy system. One Troy ounce is equal to 31.1 grams. There are 12 Troy ounces in a Troy pound, making the Troy pound equal to 373.2 grams. The Avoirdupois system ( in common use ) uses an ounce equal to 28.3 grams. Sixteen of them gives us a pound equal to 453.6 grams.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:14 - ID#431303)
Several have commented that all should contribute something. After all, it's the TOTAL posts that make our family a family. Many very intelligent "teachers", MANY MANY lurkers who may post once a month ( if that often ) , hundreds of "commenters" who add only an occaisional thought, and a FEW who ( many of us feel ) comment but add nothing.

Isn't this really what makes a family?? I, for one, have a few names that I skip over, and a few that I always expand to read all comments. I even enjoy the weather reports from Ted, and resulting replys from friends wishing only to reply to his reports.

I'd hate to see any decide to not post. And yet, I'd bet that a number won't be able to justify $84.US to continue as a "poster" using only the small number of comments they make.

Wouldn't it make sense to get many hundreds at, say $20.US/year who would then be allowed to post a very few messages a month ( say two ) . It may even bring in enough income that the charge for full posting priveledges could be reduced to maybe $4.US, and as a result getting more to be willing to pay for that priveledge.

If that system were possible, it would probably help with future growth to have a "3 month no charge for full status" status.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:15 - ID#26669)
Heavy, a little math from the textbooks:
Heavy hitter:
USA 260 TONS GOLD = 520,000 POUNDS ( 2000 LBS. = TON )
520,000 POUNDS = 832,000,000 OUNCES ( POUND= 16 OUNCES )

Oppi Untracht " Jewelry concepts and Technology" from page 746 and 747:
12 ounces Troy = one pound Troy = 240 pennyweights
to convert troy ounces to avoirdupois ounces, multiply by 1.09714
1 pound Avoirdupois = 14.583 Troy ounces
( also equals 16 Av ounces but gold isn't measured in Av ounces )
( the avoirdupois pound is about 21.5% heavier than the troy pound )

I've never seen a declaration as to whether the US government measures its gold in short tons, long tons or metric tonnes. the definition of each according to OU is:

short ton ( Av ) = 2000 pounds ( Av ) = 20 hudredweight = ( 1600 ounces Av x 20 )

long ton ( Av ) = 2240 pounds ( Av )

metric tonne = 2204.62125 pounds ( also 1 gram = .03215 troy ounces or .03527398 ounces Av ) thus one metric tonne would be 1,000,000 x .03215 troy ounces.

Now that I'm thouroughly confused I'm going to give up and request that the next ton of gold you buy might be delivered in the form of 240 scruple bars. You can then count them and tell how big is a ton. ;^ )

one short ton = 2000 pounds Av one long ton =

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:16 - ID#403159)
Whats your take on all this controversy
about the huge supply the CB's hold.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:19 - ID#26669)
Bart, what is the straight skinny?
How much is a ton of gold? I figure you're the only one here who has actually weighed out that much.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:23 - ID#403159)
Ryter and 223
Ryter, I'll take the pound of feathers. Anything
right now is worth more than gold.

223, you win.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:30 - ID#403159)
I think it proves only one thing. Equities are
extremely over priced. What we can't know
for sure is when the markets finally wake
up to reality. Tell then.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:32 - ID#254269)
World Bank and IMF look for new approaches in Asia.;

(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:37 - ID#252127)
Has anyone noticed;

that when Rubin says something he either does the opposite, or the opposite occurs?
Actually news of what he has to say, is so frequent as to confuse! Could it be that I suffer from infomation overload?
Rubin formerly said not a penny of taxpayer money should be spent to help the IMF rescue Asia. In my opinion when a powerful figure, makes up his mind he lets nothing, even his cronies change it. Thus' IMO he's controlled.
I read a few days ago that he felt that the Asian problem was under control; and then it seemed to re-ignite.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:39 - ID#31868)
Heavy Hitter
The CBs have come to the end of the selling. The frame of mindset has completely changed from a mere 4 months ago when there was nothing but talk and fear of the CBs selling to one where it is being openly discussed that Europe will build their new currency on the backbone of gold.

Gold serves one purpose and one purpose only - monetary use. Gold's role has not changed and in my opinion has only strengthened itself as the only trustworthy store of value on the planet. Look to the misery in Asia. The game is up, the people have once again been harvested, their paper will burn, those with gold will become the new middle-class and wealthy.

America has become a paper tiger. The CBs will sell nor lease no more gold.

The world is about to enter a deflation never before seen nor recorded in history.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:40 - ID#26669)
Heavy Hitter re gold weight
Do I win a job working for you counting your gold? If so I'll need a backhoe to lift it as I hurt my back last week. And do you allow gold bricking?

BTW, I've been looking at the sunshine mining graph today again. Their volumn is down to 443,400 and they look like they're building another base at 1 and 3/8 or therabouts. According to scuttlebutt they have contingency plans on gearing up their recycling refining operation to handle the hoped for increase in their scrap recycling operations, but I have no hard evidence that is really true, except p.r. I've read on the net. ( IMHO the Mark Twain principle might apply to silver mines as well... that a gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing next to it. )

Barb Hughes
(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:41 - ID#20783)

7,583,160 Troy ozs in 260 tons.

Take care...Barb

(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:44 - ID#254269)
Heavy Hitter; I agree with you but the converse is also true; gold "seems" to be
tremendously undervalued compared to other assets. I say "seems to be" becaue I personally still do not know enough about gold or gold trading. As I pointed out in an email to Donald a month or so ago, a 1,000 to 1,500 point break in the Dow, would very quickly make a major change in the Dow/Gold ratio, even if gold did nothing.
The other point that comes out of that ( Microsoft/Dell/gold ) comparison is that all three are repositories of wealth for the masses.What I am trying to say is that more people and institutions own Microsoft and Dell than own gold and gold will probably only "move" when there is a major liquidity crisis or panic. The important thing to look at in any investment ( IMHO ) is liquidity and I don't think we're quite there yet. Hope I'm making some sense with this.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:46 - ID#23782)
tonnes and such
I remember this subject in Dec. 97

Post by ?

Engineer's Manual by Hudson

Metic tonne = 1,000 kg
1 kilogram = 1000 grams
1 troy oz. = 31.1 grams

Metric tonne = 32,154.34 troy oz.


BTW My idea of due diligence - ready, fire, aim

(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:48 - ID#206358) read this b4?
Its late now 2.00am,yawnnnnnnn!last update,time to off:IMF threatening to cut off funds to
Indonesia: report

WASHINGTON, Feb 14 ( AFP ) - The head of the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) has
written a letter to Indonesia's President Suharto threatening to cut off rescue money unless there is
greater evidence of economic reform, the Washington Post reported Saturday.

In a private letter to the Indonesian president dated Wednesday, IMF President Michel
Camdessus reportedly threatened to suspend a 43-billion-dollar international bailout of Indonesia's
failing economy.

The threat stems from Suharto's desires to press ahead with plans to radically change the
country's monetary system by converting to a "currency board" in which the value of the rupiah
would be rigidly fixed against the dollar.

"In the current circumstances ... if a currency board proposal were adopted, we would not be
able to recommend to the IMF board the continuation of the present program, because of the
risks to the Indonesian economy," Camdessus is quoted as saying in the Washington Post.

"This would be a very unfortunate development, as it would shrink even further the reserve
basis for the currency board and undermine its very slim chances of success," the letter

Camdessus added that the IMF might favor a currency board for Indonesia in the future, after
the necessary economic conditions are met.

The currency board proposal likewise met with little enthusiasm in the administration of US
President Bill Clinton.

The Post reported Saturday that Clinton called Suharto late Friday to support the IMF
position against a currency board.

And Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned in Congressional testimony Thursday
that a currency board could
do more harm than good for the Indonesian economy.

"The political will and the policy initiatives that are involved in initiating and maintaining that
type of regime are very rigid. It requires very extraordinary commitment to make that system
work," Greenspan said.

US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin at the same hearing warned that the "underlying
conditions" to take such a step are
not yet in place in Indonesia.

"I think there are enormous issues that have to be worked through in the Indonesian case
before you could be in a position to consider doing it," he said.

The standoff over Indonesia's economic policy came as the country faced renewed political
and economic turmoil.

On Friday rioters burned shops and set merchandise on fire across Indonesia in some of the
worst violence since the country's economic tailspin began several months ago.

Analysts feared the impasse over the currency board could plunge the country into a renewed
downward economic spiral.

Since last July, inflation has soared and the value of the rupiah has nosedived, losing 80
percent of its value since last summer.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:50 - ID#403159)

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:53 - ID#403159)
Not inflation, but deflation. hmm. So in
other words you are saying financial
collapse and depression. No chance of
inflation or?

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:58 - ID#403159)
Your making sense, but the world doesn't.
We need to find who ever turned it upside
down and turn it right side up. Cherokee's
smoke signals of truth don't seem to be working.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 12:59 - ID#26669)
Thanks Barb
You got that by multiplying 14.583 troy ounces per pound av times 2000 pounds av times 260 didn't you? So 7583160 is still Troy ounces but the tons are avoirdupois? Most confusing to me but I guess back when they came up with troy measurement they didn't have need to measure it in tons.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 13:01 - ID#31868)
Hmmmmmmm. If you read JINs post one thing is crystal clear to me without question.

Whitey is scared, who is whitey, the Tres, Fed, WB, IMF, BIS. The tired old Banking system that has imposed serfdom on humanity for so long old has forgotten.

Whitey and the Banking ways of the past are crumbling, the British, Swiss and other Euro whores are about to get a lesson in humility from the east, count on it.

Whitey is about to learn that they are the minority on the planet.

God I love Satrudays!!!

(Sat Feb 14 1998 13:10 - ID#266105)

'Lo Tolerant.

John B__A
(Sat Feb 14 1998 13:11 - ID#77133)
United States Official Holdings
The U.S. official gold holdings are approximately 8,139 tons - times
approximately 32,000 ounces to the ton equals 260,448,000 million
ounces - times $300 equals $78.1 billion dollars. Regards,

(Sat Feb 14 1998 13:17 - ID#31868)
Hevay Hitter
The deflation in Asia is spreading around the globe like a plague. We have been in an inflationary environment for the past fifteen years. look around you, look at the cost of anything and everything. We are at the tail end.

The idiots/politicians/bankers think they can print their way out of this hence the billions and billions of all paper currencies floating around the globe when the ink has not yet finished drying.

Buy gold, hold cash. Get rid of debt.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 13:35 - ID#26793)
My example on Dell/Gold was just to try and make an easily understood case for gold and against stocks. That is also the point of the Dow/Gold Ratio. I want to show the extreme over-valuation the public mania has brought stocks to today. Barron's has a snippet about America On Line with a PE of 125. That means it takes 125 years to get your money back at this price. Conversely they are giving gold away for worthless paper dollars and Ted Arnold says you should avoid it anyway.

From what I have read about Warren Buffett he uses thought analysis like this to make his buying decisions.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 13:38 - ID#238422)
Mr. Kitner,

1.If you are losing money by allowing us to play
too much at this site, you have an absolute right
to request some sort of payment to offset this lose.

2. Your site is very informative and intertaining for now.

3. You have right to correct people if you feel that
what they say is UNCOMFORTABLE for the image of this

4. What I personnaly would not like to see is the LOW LEVEL
NONSENSE of political or racial nature, otherwise it's
absolutely essential to let people express their
thoughts and emotions freely. I feel that you feel
when this kind of nonsense nonsense is posted.

5. My position is the same as John Disney's position -
I am here for knowledge, for sharing some info and
I am here to meet people. When you meet people, you
never talk only about the business, you know that..,
you are also looking for fun.

6. Under no circumstances you do not want to allow punishment
of one poster on the basis of opinion expressed by the
other poster - this is simply an element of communist

7. Thank you for your great site.


(Sat Feb 14 1998 13:40 - ID#26793)
That was a new one. Perhaps the IMF is looking for an excuse to get out of the deal because they won't have the money to pay. The U.S. Congress will be voting on March 5th about the $18 billion for the IMF.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 13:48 - ID#26793)
China promises a stable currency (notice the new phraseology; hmmmm

(Sat Feb 14 1998 13:50 - ID#344308)

heavy hitter-----

relative to what?

the ssm has armament for either scenario.......look at the deflationary
period of the early 80's. what happened to commodity prices?
how could you profit from this now? grain about inflation?
bond puts.........just 2 simple ways to play....either works very well in commodities.....time for some may98 6000 bean

what happened to the $10 to $30 gold calls i've been getting for the last
8 months??? dad-nabit.........they're up-wards of $50 to $90 now......
danged peopleo......don't you just hate it when that happens?
!;----hep-rat-the-would-be-kitty-kat has lost his midas touch for the
golden one....the recent strength in the pog during the recent run of the
paper-tiger has been amazing...and cb's announce they ARE
BUYING GOLD to hit the wires shortly. the wannabees that the us convinced
to sell their gold...they KNOW now, what is needed to as
evidenced by the comments on the euro and it's probable backing, and other
trading blocs wanting to find ways around the us$ and silver
backed curriencies will destroy the us$ in a heart-beat.. unless of course
we use our huge hoard to back the us$....again....and then, the us$ being
backed with the largest reserves, would continue to dominate......unless
of course ziva and wwIII arrive sooner than later........
cherokee!;..saving band-with.......for-the-ether

(Sat Feb 14 1998 13:56 - ID#252127)
What Greenspan might have been hinting with "Irrational Exuberance"

It is very possible that AG was saying, get out of those stocks, and have that money in your hands for living, because the big Multinationals and also the smaller firms will continue to relocate to places where things are produced cheaply. In other words, your employment is far from secure, so get into cash.
I hoped that they would listen and slowly let the steam out of the market and buy real wealth with the cash.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 14:00 - ID#238295)
My argument that stocks will rise and gold fall in the immediate aftermath of a US attack on Iraq impicitly assumes there will be no seious opposition to the US strike. But if the Iraqis or their allies should sink or seriously damage a US carrier via kamikaze-type suicide attacks, gold probably will experience the biggest one day rise in history. Ditto for a chemical or biological terrorist retaliation in US that inflicts heavy casualties. These scenarios are quite improbable, but not impossible.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 14:01 - ID#93232)
@just hung up from james (jb)....he's back to "lanta....and, well,
he told me to tell ya'll long as you've got your checkbooks out, why not send him about fifty bucks ( or more ) to: The James Brown, the Godfather. "I'm Finally Straightenen' Out Fund",Altanta,GA P.O. Box,.
He sends you all his....He sure do. 'bout a quarterly thing? need about 200-250 takers,huh?
I think the fee should be tied to a basket-index woven around annualized gold, silver and liquor prices...huh? We all need more or less risk in our lives.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 14:02 - ID#342282)
Overvalued and undervaued
In the '50s i knew a floor broker who was then 84. I learned a lot from him. His favorite saying was "you have to get 'em up to sell 'em and get 'em down to buy. What I learned from a specialist then makes a lot of comments here come alive-- running stops. If the floor brker was alive today, i'm sure he would say SELL ( stocks ) . The opposite would apply to gold.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 14:03 - ID#252207)
Deflation & Inflation (Tolerant1 et. al.)
Actually, we may be seeing something similiar to the economic crisis that hit the world in the period 1928-1933. Deflation started overseas in 1928, while the US stock market was still booming. Commodity prices plummetted ( including gold ) . In late 1929, the market finally crashed. Deflation continued through 1933. Commodity prices continued to fall, and unemployment spread. In 1933, The US Gov. outlawed private ownership of gold, and "inflated" the economy by almost 75% by revaluing gold from $20.67 to $35.00 per ounce.

I think we are somewhere equivalent to early 1929. The market bubble hasn't burst yet, and commodity prices are starting to fall. The Fed is already trying to avert deflation, by turning on the presses to inflate the economy. The big difference is that in the 1930's, the dollar was tied to gold. In 1998, that isn't so. I think as the presses print faster and faster people will realize all the dollars ( or Baht, or Rupiah, fill in the currency of choice ) is just paper with nothing backing it. Tangible wealth like gold will hold it's value.

At the risk of being a little long winded, a couple of good books on the this general theme are "Inflation" by Donald Woodward & Marc Rose. This was published in 1933, and is actually one of the better analyses of the 1928-1933 monetary crisis. A second reference would be "Economics of a Pure Gold Standard" by Mark Skousen. It is a little dry reading, but worth the effort.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 14:08 - ID#316193)
Insightful articles~~many links

(Sat Feb 14 1998 14:12 - ID#93232)
@Kitco control tower.....come in....come in......"
Geezhus! The site is runnin' 'er on high and hold 'er there. Mucho thanks.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 14:22 - ID#93232)
CHOCOLATE Day....our My stomach's already burnin'....Go Goldbugs! Eat more Whitman's for Camdessus!

(Sat Feb 14 1998 14:23 - ID#432221)
Tolerant1,your 11:15
You gotta be kidding. Be a cold day in hell

(Sat Feb 14 1998 14:25 - ID#237164)
Have you considered throttling the output so that if a user askes for
full text, then he gets a few postings per second?

You could adjust the rate so as to encourage the reader to go into
non-full text mode. By that I mean, if you gave out one posting per
minute, then it would be obvious to the reader he would benefit by
going to the short mode.

Throttling would also be useful for the short mode, because, often
the reader calls up a full posting before the list of postings summaries
is completed.

Also, have you considered mirroring your site in real time at other

Barb Hughes
(Sat Feb 14 1998 14:30 - ID#20783)

14.583 troy ozs = 1 avoirdupois lb

2000 X 14.583 = 29,166.00 troy ozs per ton

260 X 29,166.00 = 7,583,160 Troy ozs in 260 Tons

Take care...Barb

(Sat Feb 14 1998 14:31 - ID#401349)
to Bart
Bart, I'm unsure what your business objective is in hosting this discussion group, but it has taken on a rather distinct character. There appear to be a handful of core posters that add steady value, but it is the occasional drop-in poster like Jin, Another, Oldman, etc. that help make the forum uniquely valuable. I'm just afraid we would lose some of these key contributors if you introduced a cover charge, and, thus, lose the site's attraction. You would have to have several hundred members to cover the expenses of your system and sysadmin. It's a business decision for you and I'm sure you've done your homework, but you may end up with a dozen hard core gold bugs agreeing with each other about the way things oughtta be. Sorry I can't offer an alternate solution, but I don't know how this forum fits into your business objectives.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 14:49 - ID#238295)
Middle East
The truth about current Middle East goings on from an independent Jewish source:

 and the

MER - Washington - 19 January 1998:

So much for the "Peace Process". They don't even all meet together
these days. Bibi comes to see Bill; but will spend most of his time
rallying his American troops. After decades of organizing and
preparing, the Israelis are ready; and they quite literally get away
with murder. Yasser then comes to see Bill; but will spend most of his time pretending
and dissembling to his ineffectual and demoralized
supporters who are totally unorganized and unprepared. Indeed,
nowhere else in today's world would a leader with such a disastrous
record as that of Yasser Arafat still be in power and still be
applauded by anyone.

The "peace process" was from the start a dishonest affair designed to
make the Americans look good after the carnage in Iraq; to buy still
more time for the Israelis to consolidate their hold on occupied
Palestine; and to further demoralize, disenfranchise, and divide the
Palestinians. And in these regards it has worked; but as these things
go, only for awhile. Now the chickens are coming home to roost; the
inevitable stalemate has become evident to all; and the historical
bills have to start being paid.

The Americans pretend otherwise with never-ending nonsense about being an "honest
broker"; and worse yet the Arab regimes, Arafat among them, let them get away with it!
The reality is quote otherwise of course. It is the Americans that have all along made
Israel's policies possible, providing unprecedented amounts of money, guns, political
excuses and U.N. vetoes. American words mean practically nothing these days.
American actions speak volumes. And the words and actions hardly ever correlate when
it comes to Israel.
In the end it is the American Jewish community and its infamous lobby, in tandem with a
financially manipulated Congress and a craftily controlled White House, that are all
responsible for what's going on.
And when the history of this period is written, with all the likely
future bloodshed and confrontation yet to result, the blame should be
put squarely where it belongs.

Many share the responsibility for today's predicament in the Middle
East, for the seriously unstable situation so pregnant with further
impending conflict and bloodshed, including:

The arrogant American Jewish lobby
The controlled and prostrated American Congress
The complicitous Arab "client regimes"
The corrupt and inept ( both politically and financially ) 
PLO remnant of Yasser Arafat
The American military and intelligence agencies
The weak and ineffectual American executive branch
The laughable Arab American organizations

But let's limit ourselves for the moment to the top of the list, the
American Jewish establishment and its powerful swashbuckling lobby.

This is the same American Jewish establishment that for over a
generation so viciously vilified the PLO and any who dealt with it.
Even when the Israelis sent people to jail for just meeting with the
PLO American Jewish leaders did nothing. But then a few years ago when told by the
Israelis practically overnight to start playing another
tune, this same American Jewish establishment all of a sudden started
its own round of meetings with the same Palestinians they previously
despised and even began raising money to keep the PLO going!

Of course there are many individual American Jews who have taken
principled positions throughout the years and who deserve to be
recognized and applauded for doing so. But none of the major
American Jewish organizations, or their leaders, fall into this
category; and collectively they deserve historic condemnation.

And now they've done it once again. Even though the Clinton
Administration is so top heavy with Jewish Zionist personalities and
exceedingly pro-Israeli in outlook and policies -- and this includes
all the members of the American negotiating team and in recent months even the Assistant
Secretary of State for the Middle East! -- this
isn't enough for the powerful American Jewish establishment!

Even though it was none other than the U.S. Jewish negotiating team who urged Arafat to
visit the U.S. Holocaust museum in Washington this week -- which incidentally receives a
substantial yearly U.S. government subsidy -- the Jewish lobby decided to flex its muscles
still further, humble the Arabs once more, and let Bill Clinton know who's really in
charge at the same time.

Those who read MER know there is little support for or admiration of
Yasser Arafat in these quarters. We know what he's all about; and
more importantly we say it openly right here for all to read. We're
well aware how Arafat and his cronies have squandered and stolen
hundreds of millions of dollars just in recent years, of how his
"police" have cowered and badgered, frightened and tortured, his
own people -- manipulated to do so by the Israelis and their American
friends. And we're well aware that the plight of the Palestinian
people today is considerably worse than during the days of complete
and direct occupation by the Israeli army ( still never more than a
roadblock away ) -- as hard as that is for non experts to understand.
Today's doubly-occupied Palestine has more "police" and enforcers
per capita than any place on earth! Plus the Israeli Army is never
far away!

Even so, guest as he is this week of the U.S. Government -- essentially telling Arafat he's
not welcome to visit the Holocaust museum ( "unless he comes as an individual"! ) shows
the outrageous and despicable true nature of those who so vocally represent American
Jewry these days. Walter Reich, museum director, should be ashamed of his cowardice;
but then he's only doing what he feels he must to keep his job. "Just obeying orders" are
you Mr. Reich? How ironic for a holocaust survivor!

It's all such good politics in America these days! Back in 1996 in
New York Arafat was already seated at Lincoln Center for a concert
when Mayor Rudy Gulliani sent his police to tell the PLO chairman he and his entourage
weren't welcome and should leave. After a few
flustered moments, they did; and the right-wing New York Jews loved
it! That such conduct branded their country as even more arrogant, more provincial,
and more bigoted seemed not even to occur to the American Jewish establishment which
rallied to Gulliani's side then as they are rallying to the Holocaust museum "stand" at the

When people don't speak up things of this kind build on themselves and get repeated in
worse form. There are many moderate and reasonable persons among American Jewry;
but they are not in positions of leadership and on the whole stay quiet and acquiescent.

Many American Jews are ashamed. But there's a lot of threatening going on these days;
and most Jews prefer to remain silent even though they are increasingly troubled.
Indeed, the majority of Americans Jews refuse to join any of the many dozens of
organizations which combine to make up the extended Jewish lobby -- the considerable
majority are simply not affiliated, not involved, and in many cases very much alienated
and disgusted.

So...what does this all mean?

In short, much violence, bloodshed, terror, and militarism lie ahead.

And if historic events to come could have a sign on them this sign
would read: "Made in the U.S.A". And it would be made by the
Israeli/Jewish lobby.
 MAB
________________________________________________________________ MID-EAST REALITIES is
published a number of times weekly and the MERTV Program shows weekly on Cable TV. For past MER articles go to:
Email to INFOMER@MIDDLEEAST.ORG to receive MER regularly.
Email to: INFOMERTV@MIDDLEEAST.ORG for info about the weekly TV program.
M I D - E A S T R E A L I T I E S - ( c ) Copyright 1998
MER may be freely distributed by email and on the Internet so long as there is no editing of any kind.
For any print publication, permission in writing is required.


(Sat Feb 14 1998 14:50 - ID#31868)
The people do have one main advantage this time thru. The Military hates the Coward Elect with a passion. The Commander In Chief cannot play by different rules than those he gives orders to.

The US Govt will never confiscate gold. Big changes on the horizon.

Your take on the deflation scenario fits very well with those whose thoughts I read, and I sit firmly in the camp of their beliefs.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 14:53 - ID#31868)
Grant, sorry to hear
I think you missed the point of my post completely. I am very pleased with e-gold and see it as concept way ahead of the curve.

Good luck with your endeavors.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 14:55 - ID#252127)

If you post, you pay full fee and get full text and no advertisements.
If you lurk, you pay a lower fee and get choice of full or partial text but must be subjected to advertisements after you read your fifth post and start again at zero on your sixth read.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 15:01 - ID#31868)
OLD GOLD - good grief - the truth
Do you think the Americans can handle the truth?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 15:09 - ID#286199)
Silver Analysis
The Case for the Raging Silver Bull
from the Resource Stocks Advisory

Psilver Psyched
(Sat Feb 14 1998 15:09 - ID#216217)
I would like to see the content limits of posting left unchanged. Although we are all here to learn and discuss PMs, I for one guage the credibility of the poster and depth of the analysis by much of the off-topic discussion that goes on. For example, I will not follow the recommendation of a PM options contract purchase recommended when the poster claims to have gotten the information by remote viewing a placard posted on the wall inside a UFO...

The above example is intended to be fiction. Any similarity to a true Kitco resident is of course purely coincidental....

(Sat Feb 14 1998 15:14 - ID#237299)
Jung's idea to mirror the site..great idea.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 15:24 - ID#238422)
Psilver Psyched
Hey, that is a good point.

I usually try to understand the credibility of the person
who posts, by analysising this person's off-topic posts.

It's indeed very important...

(Sat Feb 14 1998 15:30 - ID#238422)
Chocolate is good...
leaving for a steam room now...

(Sat Feb 14 1998 15:32 - ID#420262)
Crystallex Mining Int'l
I have been a lurker for many months, and occasionally the subject of the Crystallex/Venezuelan SCJ court case for ownership of Las Cristinal has come up. I have not seen a single post in support of Crystallex's position; please read the following or refer to URL

Now pull up the KRY chart--what is the market telling you??

To: Daniel Paloyan ( 5240 )

From: Frank Lostracco

Saturday, Feb 14 1998 9:47AM EST

Reply # of 5278

Hello Dan; And To ALL!!

People must understand that Roy lives in Venezuela, and he is on scene to do the best

reporting. He has the ability to find the facts as they exist in that country, his contacts are very

extensive, more so than any of Bloombergs, Reuters, or any other news service that is

there.Many of these services get many of their news from "spoon fed statements". If any of you

will take the time and dig through many of their articles, you will find a great inconsistancy in

the facts that they have put forth to the public.

The major corporations have always had the ear of the mainstream press, it is a fact of life, it is

with great courage, that Roy has taken upon himself to get the truth out to people.

Everything that Roy has stated has eventually become facts?? The time frame is not the same

as we in North America have demanded, but none the less, he has been the most accurate.

The following was posted this AM by Roy Carson, I hope that he does not mind me posting it


Roy Carson;

I received a long letter last night from a worried Crystallex shareholder who wrote:

Should Crystallex indeed be victorious in its litigation with Placer Dome

it will undoubtedly be headline news here in Vancouver, the corporate

headquarters of both companies,

My considered response WAS and IS:


Firstly Crystallex is NOT in litigation with Placer Dome.

It has applied to the Political Administration Chamber of the Supreme Court to remove 11 final

bureaucratic obstructions that were placed there by the Ministry of Energy & Mines.

Three of those obstructions were first seen to be subject to a Statute of Limitations, but were


in the final and 4th ruling which can have no other conclusion that a full and final title to LC4&6


Inversora Mael.

It is totally wrong to tie PDG to the case, although they had arguments to present as a JV

partner of

the CVG in MINCA. Their arguments have, however, been rejected. Crystallex's legal

ownership of the

LC4&6 concessions through its subsiduary company Inversora MAEL have indeed already


confirmed on THREE previous occasions by the Suupreme Court of Justice.

Crystallex's new alliance with the Ministry of Energy & Mines now leads to a removal of any


cause for the 4th ruling.

Nevertheless, it remains a formality of issue out of respect for the CSJ and its ultimate


So please let's get the record straight -- there is NO LITIGATION between KRY and PDG!

What there

IS is an application to the CSJ to remove 11 bureaucratic hurdles to full and clear title ...

nothing more,

nothing less.

PDG spin doctors and corrupt political influences in Venezuela have WISHED to express

reality in

another ( untruthful ) way! The facts, however, speak for themselves and there is NO DOUBT


Crystallex's ownership and rights to Las Cristinas 4 & 6 are SOLID and


best regards

Roy S. Carson



Roy S. Carson


Nationality : British / Irish ( dual nationality )

Place of Birth : Newry, Co. Down, Northern Ireland

Civil Status : married - wife, Victoria from Peru

British Passport No. : C-587526-D

Irish Passport No. : M 160283

Venezuelan ID No. : 82.143.478

Residente visa 013028

Valid up to and including 17/03/1999

Telephone & telefax : ( 02 ) 283.2758 ( also fax )

Electronic Mail :

Postal Address : Apartado 60.566


Venezuela - South America




1996- Editor and Publisher of VHeadline/VENews - Venezuela's

Electronic News - the first media vehicle on the internet

with news and views in English relating to Venezuela.

Distributed over the internet to approximately 35,000

readers worldwide ( latest estimate: November l 1997 ) and

on WWW at URL from December 1, 1996

1995- Internet List-owner: Correx-L - Foreign Correspondents'

Exchange Network - linking 200+ correspondents worldwide

1989- Founding director of the Venezuelan-Irish Association

of which presently co-ordinating director and liaison

with Irish Ambassador, Art D. Agnew in Buenos Aires,


1988- Foreign Correspondent covering Venezuela and parts of

Latin America for :




THIRD WORLD EEC News-features agency


UK PRESS GAZETTE, London, England


various print/broadcast network media worldwide

1987 Network News Editor, INDEPENDENT RADIO NEWS, London.

1970 - 1987 Foreign Correspondent covering Scandinavia for most of

the above newspapers and magazines.

1962 - 1970 Editorial assignments in London, Manchester, Dublin and

Belfast with sidebar assignments in SE Asia/Australia.


These are not rumors, these are the facts as being reported from a man on the scene, I have

learned in this business to not rely on the main press, "and that has served me well". In fact

since I tempered my reading of such press, my success rate in the investing and speculating

game has increased, tremendously. I still glance through issues of the FP and the G&M, but

that is it. I now use information from many sources, and I have found myself, to not be as

clouded in my thoughts and have a better ability to quickly take advantage of a situation.

For any who have doubts, especially with the arrival on the scene of so many professed to be

here to warn us about the dangers of this play, you alone must decide what is fact or fiction,

and you alone must decide whether this situation is advantageous for you. You must be

wondering why we have such new faces, that are here crying wolf, and never have they been

able to provide a definitive argument. You must decide again for yourselves of what agenda

are they motivated??

I am a shareholder of KRY, and of course I would like them to succeed, as anyone would

who has placed money on the line, should. But I ask why would anyone who claims to not

own a share in a company take up such an attack on it, there must be or is a reason, simple!!

To-day or tomorrow as time allows for myself, I will try to go through all of my files and find

the press releases that show inconsistencies in news coming out on this situation.

One more thing, last summer or early fall, when PDG announced that they had lined up 200

million financing for LC, I stated either here or on SH, that the financing was in place, YES,

BUT, they would not have access to it without "title" to the property. Just last month, when

PDG announced that they were suspending their operations they also mentioned, "problems

with the financing" how did I know that then, but it took five months for PDG to let their

shareholders know. This release came out shortly after I had stated that PDG would now be in

damage control and try to down play the course of events. PDG's financing is contingent to title

to the property, for those who believe that this final decision is in regards to title, I must say

that you are all sadly mistaken.

Title to LC 4&6 belongs to Inversora Mael,"that has been determined long ago", who are

owned by Crystallex, don't confuse what this court situation is about??

With regards,Frank

P.S. I would like to thank Roy Carson for his contributions to bringing this situation to light for

all, and I hope you don't mind me posting this here on SI for all to read.

With regards,Frank

(Sat Feb 14 1998 15:38 - ID#252150)
From the Globe & Mail-some interesting insights into his expectations for POG etc. A little known fact-ABX has the worlds largest silver reserves.

Saturday, February 14, 1998
By Douglas Goold

"THE world is magnificent," Barrick Gold Corp. founder and chief Peter Munk said in an interview this week. "We react to a stick rapidly and beautifully. And right now the gold industry has got a stick."

There is a stick driving the industry because producers face the lowest gold prices in years, massive bearish sentiment and mine closings and consolidations. The latest was Monday's announcement that Kinross Gold Corp. had agreed to merge with debt-laden Amax Gold Inc., creating North America's fifth-largest gold mining company.

"Low commodity prices force producers to look for economies of scale, economies of operations," Mr. Munk said. Everyone is cutting costs, and even the South Africans, "after three generations of doing nothing, are restructuring their holding companies." Kinross and Amax "were forced to marry to rationalize their overheads;" others, inevitably, will be forced to march to the alter.

Even powerhouses such as Barrick ( and arch-rival Placer Dome Inc. ) have had to respond. The Toronto-based producer recently sold its half of the Quebec-based Doyon mine to joint venture partner Cambior Inc. More dramatically, last September, Barrick announced it would close half of its 10 mines and take an after-tax charge of $385-million.

At the time, gold was trading at $322 ( U.S. ) an ounce; it has since fallen as low as the $280s. It closed yesterday at $300.60.

"It's just so right for us," Mr. Munk commented. "We've taken a writeoff, a big one. We're now operating five less mines and our operating costs have gone from $200 an ounce to $170 and hopefully to $150 next year." The mines will be reopened when the gold price recovers.

Barrick is already beginning to bounce back, announcing quarterly earnings this week of $75-million, up 34 per cent from a year earlier.

Barrick has been an acquisitive company, most famously for its $2.2-billion ( Canadian ) purchase of Lac Minerals Ltd. ( after a rousing takeover battle with Peggy Witte and Royal Oak, a company that is now suffering ) and its $1-billion purchase of Arequipa Resources Ltd. Would it become acquisitive again?

"We had a couple of offers," Mr. Munk answered. But takeovers increase debt and can raise the average cost of production. In any event, there are "internal opportunities" presented by Lac and Arequipa, so "I am somewhat negative" on buying anything else.

Mr. Munk is bullish on the price of gold. He said his impression at the recent thinkfest in Davos, Switzerland, was that central bankers had no intention of dumping their reserves on the market. Further, demand for gold outstrips supply. Then there's all that negative sentiment.

"I bought Trizec when half of my board walked out on me because I wanted to invest a billion dollars in real estate, because they thought real estate was dead forever after the Campeau and Reichmann disasters. I am to believe that the greatest opportunities for a turnaround are when there is an almost universal feeling of pessimism by the analysts and by investors. And looking at the short position, gold is certainly at the bottom in sentiment, at least since I entered the gold business in the mid-1980s."

Mr. Munk said he would be an idiot to try to guess where the gold price will be by the end of the year. "Could we have guessed that silver, universally described as the most unwanted commodity produced by mankind, would be doubling in price when every other commodity, from nickel, copper, aluminum and gold, has dropped by a third?"

Silver, of course, has made a comeback because of a massive purchase by superinvestor Warren Buffett. It turns out that Barrick has the largest proven reserves of silver in the world. "We were ashamed of it until yesterday," Mr. Munk quipped. "It's amazing how Mr. Buffett can change your feeling of embarrassment into a feeling of pride."

Most analysts agree with Mr. Munk that though the gold price has bottomed, the consolidation of the industry will continue. Without strong partners, many producers will have trouble continuing their operations, let alone financing exploration. "My advice would be to accumulate gold shares and gold bullion, as well, into this weakness," Peter Cavelti said. The veteran head of Cavelti Capital Management, who expects a choppy year with prices in the $280-$320 range, said it's too late to sell.

While most gold investors have been treated to an ample bath, CIBC Wood Gundy's Bill Belovay says that his recommendations made in early December have returned a stunning 22 per cent. His top choices are Placer Dome , which has underperformed because of its dispute with Crystallex International Corp., which he says is of little importance to the company; TVX Gold Inc. , which has suffered because of problems with the Kassandra project in Greece; and Dayton Mining Corp. , which is a takeover target.

Douglas Goold is Acting Editor of Report on Business.

I sold ABX close to the recent top, but after this reassuring article I'll probably be a buyer Mon. morn.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 15:42 - ID#26793)
@Tolerant 1
Whitey is scared and his world is turning upside down. There were two policemen in the world Russia and the United States. One is gone and the other is broke and has to beg for bullet money.

As a result the world is fragmenting into 1000 year old tribal divisions. Yugoslavia and Russia were artificial countries and are gone. Indonesia is another that will be gone soon. Africa is reverting to tribalism and countries that were artifically configured as Euro-colonies are all doomed as political entities. Whitey is trying to reassemble new business empires that he hopes to use as replacements for disintegrating political empires he can no longer control. The failure of fiat money and his glut of debt won't let him get away with that one. I am not sure how the world is going to look 50 years from now but chaos is more likely than order.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 15:48 - ID#31868)
It always sounds better when you rather than me put pen to paper.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 15:52 - ID#252127)
Dayton Mining

Interestinh that Minorca Resources ( MAR.t ) who had the good fortune to raise big bucks when the Bre-x disaster was looking positive bought a 12% interest in Dayton Mining last week.
Dayton will probably mine close to 100,000 ounces this year. Minorca also owns about 35%+/- of Mcwatters Mining which is scheduled to produce over 180,000 ounces this year.

Barb Hughes
(Sat Feb 14 1998 15:57 - ID#20783)
Speed @your 15:09 post

Thank you...Barb

Out of here till ... a wedding...

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:00 - ID#26793)
There are $55 trillion (not a typo) of these that will end in exactly the same way

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:03 - ID#20748)
Bloomsberg radio reports China opposed to use of force. U.S. ambassador Richardson so advised and told China prefers diplomatic solution of crisis.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:08 - ID#20748)
AP News

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:08 - ID#162148)
TITANIC, wasn't it?
tolerant1, Old Gold: The truth is foreign to most Americans---especially about matters historical. With the Hollywood blockbuster movie filling houses all over the land, I bet there arent more than a few dozen people in the country who do not honestly believe that the sinking of the Titanic was the greatest civilian maritime disaster of all time. This is, of course, far from the truth. In early 1945, German civilians were fleeing East Prussia ahead of the rape, murder and mayhhem being visited upon them by our "gallant Soviet allies" ( that's what our controlled press called them ) . On January 30, 1945, the ss Wilhelm Gustloff set sail from Gotenhafen, carrying a crew of 1000 and over 7000 refugees, mostly women and children. 13 miles out to sea, it was hit by 3 Soviet torpedoes. About 1000 were rescued by other ships in the area. Over 7000 drowned in the icy Baltic. On Feb 10, these same brave allies of ours sank the clearly marked hospital ship, General Von Steuben, drowning 3500 wounded men trying to escape from East Prussia. Then, on May 6, with Hitler dead, Berlin in their hands, and all military resistance gone, our brave soviet allies sank the ss Goya, leaving East Prussia with over 7000 innocents lost. The truth is not nice, you see.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:11 - ID#222231)
The Triumph of Gold by Dr. Franz Pick
Throughout history, from the days of the Pharoahs down to Mr. Baker, gold has always been man's best protection against dishonest government money management.

Gold is money. Gold has always been victorious over futile government attempts to dethrone it. The history of man's attempts to conquer gold is fascinating reading. But, in the end, gold always wins, because gold has no master.

May I take you back to the Vietnam war? Each day for over 4 years, we had a victory bulletin -- until someone added them all up and discovered that many more Vietnamese people had allegedly been killed than ever existed. Nonetheless, we we had victory bulletins. Now we are into a war on gold.

Attempts to dethrone gold by the US Treasury and its wholly owned subsidiary, the IMF, have accomplished nothing. The price rapidly regained any losses from the IMF and US gold sales. The US gold sales were tragic comedies featuring black humor, especially when you realize that the US has - it says - less than 8,600 tons, while the Russians have 9,000 and more likely 9,300 tons of gold.

The US war on gold was met with defeat at every turn. You know the record as well as I do, and there is little need to review all the events that have transpired since the collapse of the London Gold Pool in March 1968 down to the current pathetic whimpering attempts to persuade governments anywhere to sell gold - no matter how small or insignificant to the world market.

Now, let me declare openly and on the record that the US Treasury has lost the war against gold, and it does'nt want to admit it.

The above is as true today as it was when written. We see CB's sellig gold, the Asian currencies collapsing, next will be Europe and then the US. The only thing is ( WHEN ) . We have all waited with probably substantial losses because we do'nt know the timing. Does anyone out there have any ideas as to when?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:14 - ID#316193)
Donald, I think we're feeling some vibrations...
A few million of those many trillion throbs are beginning to be

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:14 - ID#26793)
Ring, Ring. Hello? Mr. Suharto please; this is President Clinton calling...

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:19 - ID#340459)
Old Gold, Thanks for your Post at 14:49, Truthful Article from MER

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:22 - ID#31868)
Man's inhumanity to man. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

We must all learn not to be victims!

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:24 - ID#31868)
Did you know that in order to attend one of Dr. Pick's seminars or lectures you could only enter by paying with one ounce of gold.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:30 - ID#222231)
Smart business man that Pick.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:31 - ID#26669)
Bart, alternative idea...
Why not offer free posting rights to people who either buy or refine PM's through your company? That way you could write off the website as promo and your accountant would get off your back.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:34 - ID#340459)
Folks, Irrespective of Russia, China and majority of world's opinion, USA will still strike because
of Arrogance and this will be start of it's downfall. Can anyone explain, what could not be found by UN inspectors for 6 years on ground could be destroyed by Air Strikes.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:40 - ID#340459)
Barton Biggs recently compared Global Markets to "Titanic" where he said that Water is pouring in
ship and passengers are in denial, IMF and CB's have put their fingers in these holes but are unable to stop thye leaks, Where the Rich will be saved and the poor in the lower decks sacrificed.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:42 - ID#256326)
It is up to Russia to get a coup d'etat off by D Day. This way there is 1 ) no bombing, 2 ) no saddamn, 3 ) UN sanctions get lifted and 4 ) oil can flow to pay off Iraqi debt to Russia ( and France and Germany ) . Real simple. Meanwhile the squeeze play continues and the clock is running.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:45 - ID#238422)
Sorry to disappoint you, but your "truth" is not correct.

Gustloff was carring 70 crews of German submarines and
a certain number of German pilots, approx. 4700 of military
personel. Captain of Soviet submarine was Captain of the
2 rank Marinesky. Hitler was so mad when Gustloff was sunk,
that he declared Marinesky to be his personel enemy. He also
ordered the commander of German convoy to be shot.

Marinesky was supposed to get a Hero of the Soviet Union
Award, but he did not, because of some drinking problem
and certain independence of his views.

I do not know about other ships you mentioned, but after
what Germans did to the population of the USSR, and I
feel you have no idea what they did, they are really lucky
to loose only what they lost. Of more then 120 relatives
that my family had consisted of before the war, less then
9 left alive. I can assure you that I were there during
the period of Great Patriotic War, I wuold not take even
a single German prisoner alive. Sorry...

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:48 - ID#340459)
US Oil interests are pushing for war as Oil prices have dropped 29% during last 12mos and 9.9% in
Jan 98 alone, these Corp's are salivating at the prospect for higher prices for their Product.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:48 - ID#238422)
Correction - IF I were there during the war...

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:51 - ID#31868)
In the immortal words of Buckwheat, " Honest is as honest does."

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:53 - ID#340459)
Russian interests center around $80 billion that Iraq owes them, they do not want Iraq Infra
structure destroyed, China wants some Mid East allies and to play a greater role in Oil and thus World economy

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:54 - ID#252150)
Oldman@Your 00:42 Is A Sad Commentary
on the level of ignorance re: foreign policy that pervades the U.S. When an intelligent physicist such as JTF accepts all the State Dept/media manipulated propaganda at face value, then there really is little hope. Except for a tiny % of people you are trying to educate the brainwashed & the brain dead.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:55 - ID#256326)
barton smalls
Barton Biggs has a lot of mutual fund managers who follow his every word. They are beginning to panic now that he has been proven wrong. Again. It is this as much as anything which will drive the Dow to 9500.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:58 - ID#256326)
This is why there is a mutuality of interests for a coup in Baghdad. NOW.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 16:59 - ID#31868)
I have often wondered how it is that things we could not locate on the ground, are to be found by missles from the air. If the intelligence inventory was available this entire time, why now, to bring it to the attention of the world.

But then again I do not trust the Coward Elect or any in his adminstration.

I say once again the military hates his guts. This will become a bigger and bigger problem as we move forward into the future.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:00 - ID#162148)
oris: The most remarkable thing about the lies told about that war is that they are such BIG lies. There weren't 70 German submarines, so how could 70 submarine crews be in East Prussia at the very end of the war? And on a civilian cruise ship? Come on. I did not expect you to respond about the General von Steuben and the Goya, because they never made up a lie about those. They only put out a story about the biggest loss of innocent life, the W.G.. But like the other lies, its just too big for thinking people to believe. Anyone who is interested will make it a point to find out what the facts are. Nuff said.

Mass murderers always call the other side "mass murderers". See this, written by Iceland's greatest living Jew.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:04 - ID#26793)
In reading the Morgan Bank story you can see that the reporter has a hard time understanding the "convoluted" nature of the derivatives. It is quite likely that even the principals involved don't understand them. Perhaps they were created by a former employee of the bank. They are so complex that trillions can unravel by failure of the weakest link. As in 1931 it just takes one small bank failure to trigger the collapse of the entire system. The leverage is so astounding that the consequences of a single default are literally unimaginable. Gold is so simple to understand.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:06 - ID#31868)
James, in brief defense of JTF
There have been many times that JTF has expressed his hopes that we, the American people have not been lied to.

JTF can certainly defend himself. But to be fair he has expressed his hopes that we are not being lied to.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:08 - ID#31868)
I find it hard to believe that they have a hard time understanding it. They have seen how a little, teeny, tiny, "insignificant currency can set off a chain of events that is shattering the international system of payments.

We need to keep banking totally seperate from the system of payments and the system of payments must be gold.

Let bankers bank, let the people have honest money.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:08 - ID#256326)
attention: noble martyr required
messenger of god for mother russia needed to save starving children of iraq and secure oil fields for russian state treasury. applications availble at all government offices.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:10 - ID#227290)
Iamascot & Crystallex

In your opinion, when will the final verdict be in for KRY so that it can get to work developing Las Christinas 4&6?

And, in my opinion, I would exit the stock on a big run up of good news. Venezuela has been very bad on mining companies with one or two exceptions.

The Preacher

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:11 - ID#238422)
I suggest we leave this dispute along, it's
really, really far form PM and even simple chatting...

If somebody wants to find out the real data,
this somebody can go to the library and read,
I guess. You gave you side of a story with
a lot of kind feelings about one side,
I gave the other part. I was born after
the war, and you are a lot older then me.
I do not know who are you and where you came
from, but you completely forgot to mention
why these "poor" Germans suffered. I object
such one sided look at the biggest tragedy
of the modern world.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:13 - ID#262242)
I think each of us who post & lurk on this site should send Kitco an annual check to help Bart in the maintence of this site. Nothing is for free, there is a cost to Kitco to maintain it. This site has more knowledge & interaction than any other I have seen and we should be willing to help pay for it. My thought is $25.00 per annum on a volinteer basis. Any input on this would be appreciated. It is my intention to send a check, What do you think?????

I will be in Orlando, Ft. Myers & Key West the next two weeks, if there are any Kitcoites in those areas, I would enjoy meeting you.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:15 - ID#31868)
That Y2K article over on golden-eagle, if that does not get your attention, Good grief. In addition, after reading many of Ed Yourdon's thoughts on the subject I am very nervous of the entire affair.

Physical everything is starting to look better with each tick of the clock.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:15 - ID#340459)
@tolerant1, Yeltsin realizes that a growing number of people in Russia believe that reforms have
resulted in breakup of USSR and decline from 'Super Power' to 'beggar' status for mother Russia and devolution of their economic power base in the hands of Profiteer's, Gangster's and prostitutes.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:21 - ID#340459)
1998 looks like a year of Asian Bank failures that will dominoe into International Banking as most
financing in SE Asia is based on real estate values that have tanked more than 50% in most countries and still falling. Even Real Estate in North America is slowly being effected, Anybody with huge property positions here should re evaluate their Asset mix.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:22 - ID#256326)
iraq intelligence (oxymoron)
These folks are hearing the same rumors but getting the story line wrong:

""Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
February 11, 1998

Russia Threatens to Arm Baghdad
But will Saddam Remain in Power?

According to a report on Tuesday in the online edition of
the Egyptian newspaper Al-sha'b, the Russian government has
warned Washington that Russia will supply arms and
humanitarian aid to Iraq if the United States chooses to
abandon diplomatic efforts and attacks Iraq. Al-Sha'b
reported that Baghdad requested 20 billion dollars in urgent
military and humanitarian aid from Russia. Baghdad, which
already owes Russia 80 billion dollars, hopes to be able to
pay off its debt once sanctions are lifted. Al-Sha'b went
on to report that Washington has monitored heightened states
of alert and increased military preparedness throughout the
Middle East, and has warned neighboring Arab states against
providing Iraq with military support.

If the Egyptian report is factual, then Russia has just
moved even closer to confrontation with the United States.
Its previous threats of world war are clearly not credible.
Sending aid to Iraq is, on the other hand, quite credible
and therefore is in many ways more dangerous. The question
is, will Hussein be there after the U.S. attack to receive
the arms?

We have noticed a curious juxtaposition of official U.S.
statements on the crisis in Iraq with the emerging balance
of U.S. forces in the region, suggesting that Washington may
be expecting an Iraqi coup d'etat. U.S. Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright testified before the Senate on Tuesday
that, in the event U.S. air strikes contributed to toppling
Saddam Hussein, "it would create a situation which, for a
time, would require the presence of troops." The United
States has accelerated its deployment of ground troops to
the region. Three thousand troops from Ft. Stewart are
being deployed to reinforce the 1,500 U.S. ground troops
already in Kuwait. The USS Tarawa and the USS Guam,
amphibious assault ships each carrying a 2,000-man Marine
Expeditionary Unit, are headed for the Persian Gulf. Other
U.S. ground forces in the region include 6,000 soldiers at
the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia and 10,000
soldiers engaged in military exercises in Egypt.

Additionally, the list of potential U.S. targets has grown
from suspected chemical and biological agent sites to
include command and control installations, the Iraqi air
force, and the Republican Guard. This suggests a
decapitation strike, aimed at disrupting Hussein's
capability to coordinate a defense of his hold on power.

Iraqi opposition forces also appear to be preparing for an
altered post-air strike environment. The rival Kurdish
Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdestan are
planning a meeting on February 12 to settle outstanding
differences and stabilize their cease-fire. Iraqi
Kurdestan's Conservative Party public relations officer,
Aram Muhammad Sa'id, declared in an interview on Monday with
the Iranian News Agency that Turkey's latest entry into
northern Iraq had the "green light" from the United States,
and was part of a U.S. plan to use air strikes to topple
Hussein and dismember Iraq. Finally, the Iraqi National
Congress has reported that Baath Party and military
officials have begun evacuating southern Iraq, lest an
uprising follow U.S. air strikes.

Many in the U.S. Congress have asserted the need for an "end
game" that removes Saddam Hussein from power, but thus far
the U.S. has been unable to foment or coordinate an
overthrow of Hussein. If it is to be successful, we will
not know for certain about a coup plot's existence until it
is underway. But circumstances do hint that something may
be in the works. Baghdad has evidently noticed this, as
Iraqi Foreign Minister Saeed al- Sahhaf asserted on Tuesday
that the U.S. would fail to topple the Iraqi regime, since
Hussein had the support of the Iraqi people.

The question is this: is there a real possibility of a coup
in Baghdad or is this part of U.S. psychological warfare
against Iraq? In a way, the possibility of a coup is more
reasonable an explanation for U.S. behavior than the idea
that the U.S. is going to mount an air campaign against
chemical and biological weapons. What is not clear is
whether a coup has a real chance or whether this is just
wishful thinking on the part of the United States. And it
is not clear what Russia would do if the coup turned into a
protracted internal struggle.""

As I say, they are missing the point but confirming the rumors.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:22 - ID#31868)
No question Mr. Yeltsin is in between a rock and a bottle of vodka. But then again, if the USG was not full of gangsters, prostitutes and power mongers alot of American ingenuity and know how could have helped all involved.

Restrictions placed on people by the governments of the world is killing us. When people figure that out I pity the politicians. Quite frankly I think they see this now, they are terrified of the deflation and currency crisis that started in Asia which now spreads around the globe.

When it hits the US, should the coward elect try and institute any of the unconstitutional emergency powers act he and the District of Columbia will be in for a very rude awakening.

A change in attitudes can move as swiftly as the destruction of a currency. Maybe faster.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:23 - ID#329157)
Mass Conversion Factors for Precious Metals
Troy ounces to kg, multiply by 0.031 103 476 8, this is exact.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:24 - ID#252150)
A silly Sad Spectacle
I wonder if the U.S. gov't has ever stopped to consider how silly it looks in the eyes of the rest of the world. They have Cohen & Albright travelling around to these Arab Countries trying to convince them that it's perfectly O.K. to carry out a policy of genocide against their fellow Arabs--but too many are surviving, so now they would like their co-operation so that they can kill some more.
As for Israel & their hundreds of U.N. violations--just trust us, we'll speak to them about it...someday.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:26 - ID#31868)
No, they have not.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:26 - ID#340459)
tolerant1, I was the Year 2000 Project Manager for a large alliance of vital Industrial sector, I
away from that stressful assignment as IT IS ALREADY TOO LATE to fix the problem that might evolve in incalculable misery to humanity over and above mere economics.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:27 - ID#256326)
chat means conversation
My thanks to Oris and Oldman for actually having a conversation at Kitco.
Staccato news services reports have replaced the once vibrant chat function at this site.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:27 - ID#153102)
Analysis from mozeland with a Warning
Donald: Your posts are validating the information I posted regarding the fact the secret purpose for the IMF bailout is to rescue international banks from derivatives exposure. If the banks are unable to collect on their derivatives winnings in Asia, there will be no offset for derivatives losses elsewhere and very possibly serious bank liquidity crisis. But, in addition, if derivatives contracts cannot be counted on to be settled in a timely matter, the end of the floating currency system is in sight. Without derivatives, the floating currency system has too much risk and volatility to be tolerable for trade. Derivatives were invented to offset that risk. If you add variables for delay of payment and non-payment into the already complex calculations for derivatives risk quantification, I think you have an incalculable mix. There may actually be $100 Trillion of the financial time bombs bobbing about. The derivative depends on legal enforcement for its value. Legal enforcement in a foreign sovereign jurisdiction is the achilles heel of the floating currency system with derivatives risk management.

Gold is politically neutral. This feature of political neutrality is what makes it superior to a currency board or any other political creation for monetary matters. In a world of competing sovereign nations, this feature makes it the only monetary unit fit for international trade. The nations that are most dependent on international trade, Japan and Germany, ought to be leading to a world trading system based on gold. the US supports the Euro to forestall Germany from taking this leadership role. American corporations will not lead toward gold until they see that the dollar trading system is dead. The governments of the world are going to be dragged to gold kicking and screaming. For the near term anticipate a serious disruption in international trade.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:28 - ID#252150)
Tolerant Re: JTF
When he was 20 yrs old did he still hope that there was a tooth fairy?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:30 - ID#238422)
Oldman, I forgot to mention:

Lutvanian Klaipeda, port on the Baltic sea, used to be
called Pillay. During the war, Pillay was the large base
of German military ships and submarines. There was also
a school for training submarine crews, as I recall.
If you know history, you know the rest...

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:34 - ID#340459)
@tolerant1, a wise and succinct observation vide#31868

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:35 - ID#26793)
@Mozel. Another derivative loss for your collection. UBS
UBS: Derivatives under scrutiny

Originally published: MONDAY FEBRUARY 2 1998

By Clay Harris, Banking Correspondent

Night had fallen in Zurich on Friday by the time Union Bank of Switzerland
came out with a statement that it said "set the record straight" about its
derivatives losses in 1997.

UBS's late announcement was intended to staunch speculation about its
1997 results ahead of tomorrow's vote by shareholders on its merger with
Swiss Bank Corporation.

It provided some new information - that equities and equity derivatives
together had generated earnings of close to SFr1bn ( $678m ) last year,
about 25 per cent down on 1996. But it left in the twilight the issue of
specific losses by its derivatives operations that prompted the statement.

What UBS's statement obscured was that the global equities derivatives
( GED ) management group formerly headed by Ramy Goldstein was
responsible for losses of up to SFr650m in 1997.

Mr Goldstein, who ran the London-based derivatives operation, was
dismissed in November with four traders.

The SFr650m figure, which has been confirmed by senior sources familiar
with the bank's results, does not appear because trading for which GED
was responsible is reported in two different parts of the UBS statement, in
different ways.

In ordinary equity derivatives, UBS acknowledged that another SFr150m
had been lost on top of the SFr200m it had reported for the first half.

It then added that losses had been recorded on proprietary trading
positions in Japanese convertible bonds.

Although this activity also came under Mr Goldstein's control, it is reported
under equity proprietary trading, which UBS said on Friday had lost
SFr100m in the year.

Some news reports represented this number as referring to the Japanese
activity alone and concluded that the total derivatives losses added up to
"only" SFr450m. However, the SFr100m is a net figure, reaching by
setting off the Japanese losses against profits made by the rest of the

The Japanese losses exceeded SFr270m, according to sources familiar
with the results. UBS said it would not give details about the composition
of the results.

By lumping the Japanese convertible bonds losses together with the
proprietary equities trading result, UBS obscured the profitable
performance of its equities traders who have been fighting for their jobs in
the combined organisation. Equities staff did relatively well in this year's
fraught bonus round.

An alternative strategy might have been to worry less about saving
corporate face and making a clean breast of the situation. After all, the
department responsible for the losses has since left UBS, followed by
Hans-Peter Bauer, global head of fixed income, currency and derivatives.

But such openness would inevitably have raised questions about the
management and risk-control structures that allowed the derivatives losses
to get out of hand in the first place.

UBS's handling of the issue helps to explain SBC's ability to crack the
whip over it in the merger.

Even if the bottom line was a better result than some had feared, the losses
undermined UBS's bargaining position. None of this is expected to effect
this week's merger votes, but it suggests that sometimes pride persists after
a fall.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:36 - ID#31868)
You're killing me. I will defer to JTF when he can defend himself. I just wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt. O'tay.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:40 - ID#253389)
Mozel - your Warning post is right on
I think you are hitting at the real essence of the financial/currency crises. If "faith" in one's ability to protect from currency related trading losses is lost then the pyramid implodes. Your observation of the "apolitical" nature of gold should be taken to heart. It's troubles have been touted as being related to its' "political" nature - i.e. central bank manipulation, but, its' recovery from banishment as a "barbarous relic" will likely be its' "apolitical" usefulness in establishing a level playing field in international currency transactions.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:49 - ID#243180)
Bart,,,I'm sorry to repeat myself but I think this is an APROPRIATE
idea: If U must charge per annum,,, make an option to allow us to purchase PMs from KITCO since this is what we discuss here....,,this is my last time to post it.... thanx!

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:53 - ID#252150)
JTF@I hope you won't take my comments as a personal attack.
I was basically pointing out how effective the State Dept./media propaganda machine really is.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:54 - ID#262242)
Oldman, good to see you back to the site. Missed your posts. If you live in florida, send me a letter.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:56 - ID#340459)
USA will now pressure select Monarchies that US controls in Mid-East to pay Russia the Iraqi debts
of $80 billion and promise of favourable Oil supply from Gulf states to them in exchange for keeping a low profile, If this tactic succeeds then USA will blast way like Rambo unilaterally

(Sat Feb 14 1998 17:58 - ID#256326)
@ james on propaganda
If one's foreign ministry is addressing a matter of national interest, would you want them to be ineffectual? Would you explain why Albright and Cohen are nor proper representatives of that interest?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:01 - ID#340459)
What goes around comes around in this round world of our's. Catering to select vested interest at
cost of larger populace is a recipe of decline for more civilizations thah we can count in the History of this planet

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:04 - ID#340459)
Zhirinovsky is the most important player in Russia about Iraq stand than Yeltsin, Yeltsin is indeed
between Rock and a bottle of vodka as tolerant1 pointed out

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:06 - ID#342376)
Gold goes up by default?
As U.S. equities begin to sink, wouldn't investors ( who are hungry for there 30% returns on a yearly basis ) begin to look where they can put their money? I believe gold and gold-mining stocks are an answer. In fact, I believe that a bull market in gold and gold mining stocks would be CREATED to keep these new investors appetites for 30% yearly returns satiated. Any comments on that idea? Did I spell satiated right?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:10 - ID#342376)
"their" not there, but did I spell satiated right?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:13 - ID#252150)
Julian Simon-The Doomslayer (from the Globe & Mail)
Predicted in the early 80s that oil in the future would be plentiful & cheap:
Saturday, February 14, 1998
By Terence Corcoran

SOME time around the middle of next May, Julian Simon was scheduled to address an Industry Canada seminar in Ottawa. What an opportunity it would have been to set Mr. Simon -- the world's leading "Doomslayer," as Wired magazine called him this month -- among federal bureaucrats who, day after day, churn out volumes of doom-laden warnings of overpopulation, resource depletion, environmental degradation and looming apocalypse. Mr. Simon, a professor at the University of Maryland, would have had none of these warnings, nor would he have accepted the premise that the world is going to hell in a wastebasket. Living conditions have improved throughout history, he once said, "and there's no convincing economic reason why these trends toward a better life should not continue indefinitely."

When he died of a heart attack this past week, at age 65, Mr. Simon left behind a staggering body of work that brimmed with optimism, hard scientific optimism backed by fact, statistics and reasoned argument. It's a viewpoint long absent in Ottawa. A former marketing economist, Mr. Simon became a full-time doomslayer in 1980 when he wrote a piece in Science magazine attacking Paul Erlich's famous theories of global overpopulation and imminent economic and social disaster. In response to Mr. Erlich's books, The Population Bomb and The End of Affluence, Mr. Simon's article was titled: "Resources, Population, Environment: An Oversupply of False Bad News."

In many ways, not much has changed since 1980. There's as much false bad news as ever, even as the falseness of the old bad news is proved every day.

To make his point against the Erlich scares, Mr. Simon took on Mr. Erlich in a famous 1980 bet. Mr. Erlich, claiming the world was heading for a shortage of key commodities, had predicted "a genuine age of scarcity" by 1985 caused by near-depletion in key minerals. In the bet, they each put hypothetical 10-year investments of $200 in each of five commodities: copper, chromium, nickel, tin and tungsten. In Mr. Erlich's doomy forecast, the prices should have exploded. But when the bet was called 10 years later, the prices of all the commodities were lower and some had collapsed. Over time, it may prove to have been a bet that saves the world from the Erlichian doomsayers.

The first of Mr. Simon's books, The Ultimate Resource , was published a year later. The ultimate resource here, and the source of Mr. Simon's optimism, was not the number of trees in forests, oil in the ground or water in the oceans. It was the human imagination and the human spirit, a basis from which he derived his underlying approach to population growth. If human beings are the source of expanding wealth, creativity and opportunity, then expanding populations can only increase the quantity of wealth and the quality of life.

For people who didn't like the theory, Mr. Simon produced the evidence. In eight books on population economics, he marshalled mountains of facts and argument that proved his points -- over and over and over again -- and demolished the ideas of those who believed human beings were despoiling the earth and creating an uninhabitable hell. In the updated version of his major work, The Ultimate Resource 2 ( 1996, Princeton University Press ) , all the scares are systematically trashed, with charts, graphs, illustrations and description. Replacing the doom is a parade of evidence that demonstrates the creative power of human action.

In all spheres of human activity, Mr. Simon plotted and demonstrated the rise of production, energy use, food consumption and living standards. Energy will become more abundant and cheaper. In a typical assessment, Mr. Simon claims that "the long-run impact of additional people is likely to speed the development of cheap energy supplies that are almost inexhaustible." That may seem unrealistic, but so did his prediction in the early 1980s that oil prices would tumble as supply grew. He also asserts, with compelling evidence, that the disappearing species claim has no foundation.

Faith in population also led naturally to another favourite theme: immigration. "The migration of people from poor to rich countries is as close to an everybody-wins government policy as can be." In another book, The Economic Consequences of Immigration ( 1989, Basil Blackwell ) , he laid out the economic and moral grounds for expanded immigration in prosperous, market-oriented countries such as Canada. Did you know that, prior to the First World War, people were free to move from country to country as a right? The idea of limiting that freedom grew in part out of false bad news -- about economics, population and prejudice -- that Mr. Simon spent most of his life fighting.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:15 - ID#20748)
Aurophile- Staccato?
Since I am the one who posted the Bloomberg story on China's opposition to the use of force in Iraq, I assume your 17:27 was a dig at me. Information clears one's thinking and I do believe this is a group that can think for themselves. So I try to post as fast as I can.

Opposition from Russia and China must not be ignored. Of all the people, it was strange to hear from a man like Senator McClain, who upon hearing the news of Russian opposition remarked that if we decide to go it alone, "There is nothing much that can do about it." Today we hear from China, and we now have your theory that that Russian diplomacy is really aimed at toppling Saddam from power. Not bloody likely.

As to what Russia and China can do if we decide to go it alone in the face of their firm opposition ? They can block off the Gulf of Aden, that's what they can do, and then let our war hero decide his next course of action.

I believe that wiser heads would prevail and butchery in Iraq avoided. I have no definite information on this, but someone recently posted that reparations obtained from Iraq already exceed those received from Germany at the end of WW2. Isn't that enough ?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:16 - ID#340459)
aurophile, Cohen and Albright's loyalties are not towards US citizens best interests or morality of
fair play but in global servitude to World financer's and make other Nations fear USA ( some call it an officially sanctioned Terrorist Nation )

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:17 - ID#339320)
@Earl re: Ven IRS

What reform wagon?
I've been under daily assault for the last 6 mos by these people, who were being paid by my commercial competition to perform their illegal acts of commercial terrorism. We have had 3 of them ( Ven IRS functionaries ) indicted for conspiracy and corruption, and have them pretty much on the run. ( That's why I've been so invisible from Kitco these last 6 mos....fighting alligators from an alligator suit ) .
Forget reform here.
Curruption is 100% institutionalized.
The publicized KRY/PLACER situation is a farce.
Nothing is as it appears....
and no matter how sure you are of this or any other case.......

ANYTHING is possible because pigs do fly here......
it's just that their drag to lift ratios are a direct function
of their potential gains divided by pocket depth ratio.
( JTF should appreciate that formula! )

Out for Mexican food...and a shot of tequila in Tolerant 1's honor.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:21 - ID#252150)
RE: Simon-I don't think he counted on the ability of Clinton & his insane foreign
policies & the corrupt bankers with the complicity of their politicians & bureaucrats to f**k everything up.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:24 - ID#238295)

One little known fact of World War 2 -- US submarines in the Pacific deliberately targeted Japanese hospital ships and frequently machine gunned survivors of sunken vessels. This was shown in the movie "Winds of War, based on the novel by Jewish author Herman Wouk.

And the Nazis -- despite their genocidal massacres on the Eastern front -- were much more humane in their submarine warfare than were the Americans in the Pacific. There was only one proven instance of Nazi machine gunning of survivors. But this was routinely practiced by the Americans sub mariners.

All sides in World War 2 committed terrible atrocities. Including the good old USA.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:28 - ID#335190)
OLDGOLD @ 14:49 (Tolerant1 @ 15:01) TRUTH="JUST OBEYING ORDERS" Must Keep My Job!
""Of course there are many individual American Jews who have taken principled positions throughout the years and who deserve to be recognized and applauded for doing so.

But none of the major American Jewish organizations, or their leaders, fall into this category; and collectively they deserve historic condemnation.""

""Walter Reich, museum director, should be ashamed of his cowardice; but then he's only doing what he feels he must to keep his job."Just obeying orders" are you Mr. Reich? How ironic for a holocaust survivor! ""

Soooooo OLDGOLD great material. Many good German people were taken to the concentration camps, yes, there were also Jews. Many were as those mentioned in your material, "INDIVIDUAL GERMANS", against the "GERMAN SUITS" that stated they were "just doing their job."

We can be hopeful, that these "Individual Jews" will continue to attempt to expose these Organized Suits, that are in fact the cowards. No, these Suits know not, what Shame/guilt/disgrace is. They must keep their job !

Thanks Take Care.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:29 - ID#340459)
In days of Ceaser and Alexander, The Commander-in-Chief would lead the Battle from the front, No
chance of that with BC who would hide in Oval Office and tuxedo and kill with a phone call while getting his rocks off with Bimbo's

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:35 - ID#420262)
Reply to Preacher---KRY
Concerning timing of GOOD NEWS for KRY, I have reason to believe it may
occur this coming week--in fact, it may be too late now to buy stock unless a
person has a Canadian account ( IMVHO ) .
There is also reason to believe that KRY is talking to two or three majors about a
buyout of LC 4 & 6. For more info, check out the Stockhouse Forum--KRY
threads. I've read over 67000 posts and hundreds of e-mails from Venezuela
over the last six to eight months to become a believer ( not to be confused with
BELIEVER, MY FRIEND ) in the KRY story.

Venezuela is a changing country, significantly divorced from its past. It's Km88
area on the Guiana Shield may hold up to 60 million ozs of gold, according to
reports I've seen. Venezuela is in the process of unifying its mining
development in the region, largely because of environmental impact
considerations, under the primary direction of a proposed mining consortium.

One of the strongest advocates of environmental preservation has been, and
continues to be Venezuelan Ambassador to Spain Dr. Tejera Paris, who gave up
his much sought after post to become Chairman of the Board of Crystallex's
Venezuelan subsidiary. I believe that the current subsidiary is to be transitioned
to a new entity called MINERA VENAMO C.A., and this company may become
responsible for the consortium leadership position. Roy Carson, Editor of
VNews/Headline News out of Caracas deserves all the credit in the world for
shedding light on the true situation developing in Venezuela. You can check out
his site at:

Best Wishes to You, Preacherman!!!

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:38 - ID#23398)
For the individuals interested in the details concerning
the above go to

then go to search, requesting TVX GOLD LTD.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:41 - ID#256326)
You have your opinion.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:43 - ID#340459)
Kissinger is still a big player in US foreign policy towards Iraq, He had personally ordered to seal
the fate of Olaf Palme ( sweden ) and Zia ul Haq ( Pakistan ) not to mention the much ( media maligned ) Nixon's fall from grace.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:45 - ID#256326)
I hope you have some evidence for your slander other than your fertile imagination.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:46 - ID#162148)
midas: Its worse than that. A man who lived in Israel, fought in the Israeli Army, and was a citizen of AUSTRALIA on the day Bill Klinton was sworn in as President, Dennis Ross, is now UNITED STATES Under Secretary of State for MIDDLE EASTERN affairs. Wonder whose interests he's protecting?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:48 - ID#340459)
@aurophile, Olaf and Zia's case is very murky, search CIA files for evidence.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:48 - ID#252150)
sociopath as President. Off to the Legion to meet my old buddy a WW2 vet & argue about Iraq. I'll have my hands full. He does'nt care how many children have died & would love the U.S. to nuke them. Oddly enough he's a nice old guy.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:50 - ID#340459)
Oldman, the circle of the serpent is now almost complete around the globe...

(Sat Feb 14 1998 18:59 - ID#256326)
US policy
I find that many who dislike or hate clinton ( amongst whom I include myself ) have extended those feelings to a disdain for US policies in general. Anyone who has worked in government knows that professional civil servants and officers of government advise and very largely control the policies of elected officials in the US, as they do in most countries with legally sane leaders, and that those policies do not change very much over long periods of time. This is particularly true in foreign or military policy.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:07 - ID#340459)
aurophile, I partially concur with your prudent observation. However the key civil officials are
chosen and brought into power by the Elected politicians, Presidents ( and prime Minister's ) bring their own secretaries of State, Justice, Defence, Treasury etc. The lower level civil servants that are consistent are not privy to higher policy issues.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:10 - ID#60253)

I would say, you are thinking well with this thought:

Date: Mon Feb 09 1998 18:20

SDRer__A ID#288156:

derivatives EXIST because the system is broken

To this I would add:

 a broken system EXIST because oil still backs the US$

It is good, this system, for the world economy is strong from the easy flow of oil. But, the economy is as living persons, and subject to the stress of real life! We do now reach high production of goods and service worldwide. But, in terms of our financial system, the ability to trade these goods, has reached its limit! Even as a mountain climber,

humans have limits, as we can move only so high and so fast at this altitude. Today, the derivatives start to fail because the world trading system is slowing down, even as products are produced faster and cheaper. The economy has reached the top of the mountain and noone can see this. As you read this, persons buy companies thru your Dow Jones at values that reflect the supply of cheap oil and its good effects for

business in general. What they do not see is the undoing of the currency world that good business must have to operate. The oil standard created and held this currency world intact, thru much abuse. Today, the derivatives, that require a long future of good business, are being devalued! Look far and wide as you are, now , at the top of

this hill! The world will head down this slope because it is not a machine and is subject to thin air. History has shown that as persons slip from a high stance, they grasp for items that are known to be secure! They do reach for real things! Derivatives offer not a solid

hold. It is well known that the modern gold market is fat with contracts derived from intentions to supply. It is also known that the US$ continues on the oil standard because of this paper. No doubt, oil will continue to flow, but what currency will take this supply as we walk down the mountain?

In that day, good money will become bad money and derivatives will be paid to the holders of derivatives! In that day, a gold mine will also be paid in derivatives, for its gold will be for the benefit of all.

This is the way for you to see this modern gold market:

Today, the paper gold market only affects the physical as the price is pushed down! It is the physical market that destroys the paper gold as price rises. In a falling market, paper can be settled in physical gold or cash! In a limit up market, paper can only be settled in more paper or cash!

It is of this knowledge that wealthy ones and some CBs are taking in physical gold.

Look to LBMA, for currency looking for gold! Compare the Comex average open interest with its average daily trading volume. Now use average daily trading volume at LBMA and convert to open interest in London, using comex ratio. Here you will find real currency in paid for gold derivatives ( not futures ) ! This money is now looking

to convert to physical! It is caught in this paper with no way out! Know that this amount covers not CB gold moved by big trader! That wealth is safe, as it is for the good of all in those countries!

Mr. Bart,

Your fee, it is a good thing. I would be more open and bring the thoughts of others for all to see.  all persons live for as one world and secrets are for the fools

(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:18 - ID#340459)
@Another, Oil may not back US$ for eternity, Specially with an ugly War many Mid-East Governaments
might be forced by the populace to seek other compensation for their oil exports than $ alone, more so, if US policies create Death and destruction in their back yard.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:22 - ID#257136)
aurophile-your 18:50 post,
As a bureaucrat you know the propensity for a bureaucrat to " be a good german".
I know whereof I speak, 'cause I have been retired from investigative work wherein I dealt with levels of gubmnt from counties in one of our western atates to and including federales in Dallas, Denver and D.C..
They are a firmly entrenched group of commited elitists.

Look inside yourself and don't tell us what you see
Keep it to yourself, and we won't comment on it either!

(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:26 - ID#340459)
Thanks to all at this forum, I feel that this fraternity is cut above the Main Street, May our views
be widely held elsewhere too.

Steve in TO__A
(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:26 - ID#209265)
Ominous sign
I just noticed this on Bill Buckler's Privateer site:

Third: Now this one is interesting. A U.S. Treasury Official, Mr Stanley Morris, speaking on behalf of the OECD about
a survey they have done concerning "illicit" money transfers, has stated that Gold is becoming the preferred vehicle for
money laundering by drug dealers and those involved in "white collar crime". The reason, he says, is because the Gold
market is more "deregulated" than are the markets for currencies and various classes of debt paper. The clear
implication, left unstated, is that it may be necessary to look into tightening regulation of the Gold markets to stop all
these criminals from getting away with the fruits of their labours.

This is a bad sign, to my mind. Especially for you US citizens who have every little financial transaction you do tracked by FinCen. I wouldn't be surprised to see a move occur to ban gold ownership again, and possibly to gain acceptance among the public for international banning of the use of gold as money ( "got to stop those evil drug dealers" they say whenever they want to infringe on peoples' civil liberties. )


(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:29 - ID#225273)
Iamascot & Crystallex

I passed on KRY months ago. I invest almost exclusively in North American projects. I know you're doing well with KRY.

You know that when they asked Robert E. Lee who his best soldiers were he answered: "The Scots, from Ireland."

The Preacher

(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:34 - ID#225273)
ANOTHER; A Question

Glad you're here, brother.

I've been reading the entire record of your posts from last September onward. Also, today I read M. Aurelius' Checkmate. In simple terms, it seems you say the Arabs have cornered the gold and he thinks the Jews have cornered the gold.
If they are in competition for it, then it may indeed provoke WW3 and Ziva can tell us "I told you so."
Your thoughts on this please?

And one other thing for now: I can't tell how it is that the Asians challenged the system and found out that the free flow of oil is more important than the Pacific economies. Could you explain your view on that more clearly?

The Preacher

(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:36 - ID#34883)
George Reisman/Line Item Veto/Gold Standard

(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:37 - ID#228262)
tonnes(metric) V. tons(English)

1 tonne ( 1000kgs ) is a metric gravitational unit of mass. 1 ton ( 2000lbs ) is an English ggravitational unit of mass. 1tonne does not equal 1 ton as will be shown: the use of the word "gravitational" means these masses are defined by the earth's gravitational force ( pull ) in order to establish their respective weights on a scale. This applies to all units of mass in this discussion. As units of conversion: 1kg = 2.20462lbs; 1lb = 12ozs ( troy ) =16ozs ( avoir ) troy ozs = ozst; avoir ozs = ozsa
1kg = 2.20462lbs x 12ozst/1lb = 26.4554ozst; 1kg= 2.20462lbs x 16ozsa/1lb = 35.2739ozsa; converting 1 tonne to troy ozs and avoir ozs: 1 tonne = 1000kgs x 26.4554ozst/1kg = 26,455.4ozst; 1 tonne = 1000kgs x 35.2739ozsa/1kg = 35,273.9ozsa converting 1ton to troy ozs and avoir ozs; 1 ton = 2000lbs x 12ozst/1lb = 24000ozst; 1 ton = 2000lbs x 16ozsa/1lb = 32,000ozsa; Finally; 1 tonne = 1000kgs x 2.20462lbs/1kg = 2,204.62lbs; 1 ton = 2000lbs source is from Handbook of Chemistry @ Physics. I sincerely hope this clarifies the questions of weight units of gold.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:38 - ID#20748)
Aurophile- Your 18:59
Disagree. In a democracy all civil and military officials obey the orders of a government legally elected into power. At senior levels their fortunes are controlled by the politicians in power. It is rare for them to contradict their 'superiors', who control their pensions and promotions.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:44 - ID#340459)
@Steve, Someone should tell money laundering to the tune of Billions occur in Offshore branches
like Cayman Islands, Isle of Man etc. of most respected and Internationally renowned Banks. Where these banks with offices in 5 star hotel suites, staff of select 3 or 4 people raise Billions of dollars with less than a dozen clients, I fail to see major drug money in Gold transported in Trucks or freighter's. Gold is heavy Brother, in more ways than one.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:44 - ID#156161)
Steve in TO__A
There are ominous signs about; but banning gold won't solve the currency problems created by the entrenched elitists, except for the short term.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:44 - ID#256326)
Your extensive experience at the highest levels of government has surely taught you that the revolving door politicans have very little effect. We can all agree that this has its downside. It also has a conservative effect which keeps us safe against the fads and follies of the latest electable rogue. This is the very reason why a professional civil service exists in many nations. By the way, I will swear upon your shoe boxes of Krugerrands that I am not now nor have I ever been a member of the bureaucrat party.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:46 - ID#26793)
German official faults American credit rating agencies over Asian failures.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:48 - ID#256326)
An officer will not refuse a legitimate order; however in nearly all cases it will have been officers of government who crafted and advised adoption of the policies which led to the order.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:49 - ID#341214)
OLDGOLD - Novels don't always deal in facts
OLDGOLD: I read extensively on WWII Pacific Submarine operations when I was younger. I recall no hint of what you mentioned regarding Japanese hospital ships. Submarine resources were scarce and extremely vital. They would not waste torpedo shots on such targets knowningly, especially our torpedoes which worked correctly only about 2/3 of the time for the first 18 or so months of the war. I would need to see some proof other than what you have read in a novel. I do recall reading about US subs sinking destroyers carrying troops to reinforce island garrisons and the subsequent machine gunning of those troops on and in the water to prevent them from making it to the island. Their mission was to prevent the troops from making it to the island where they would be used to kill our troops. They would have failed in that mission had they allowed the troops from the sunken ships to make it to the beach. I don't consider such an occurrence an atrocity but a very hard decision made under wartime conditions.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:54 - ID#26793)
New Japanese Finance Minister denies any of the "larger" banks are broke.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:58 - ID#403159)
Could you be so kind to tell us when gold might start
moving northward in a big way from here. Any ideas
would be greatly appreciated. It might be alot to ask
but maybe you have a hunch.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:58 - ID#340459)
Til the CB's accept Gold as their standard of value it will be difficult for old lady Gold to move
more nimbly due to negotiation hurdles as World is now used to transferring Billions across the globe in the blinking of an eye. Individuals holding gold may not raise it's importance as all forms of wealth is a percieved value of the majority. We are cases for Shrinks and 9-1-1 by some financial wizards of the day. We need to raise it's perception by our collective vision and our ear to the ground that can enable and prosper us through a united Heave-Ho.
Your comments are requested for which I remain obliged....

The Hermit
(Sat Feb 14 1998 19:59 - ID#369247)
@tolerant1 - your 17:15
I share your nervousness. The Y2K problem has potential to be a very serious problem. I have read reports from Electrical and Gas Utilities that explain they are in the process of testing imbedded chips in their systems and are finding serious problems. There is potential to cause serious explosions and in the case of electrical companies to shutdown entire grid systems, all by the failure of just one chip in any of the connected Utility Companies.

Thank you for your referral to the article. Physical everything is smart.

The Hermit

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:00 - ID#243180)
You posted on 07 Feb 20:51:

"... ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253...

... oil will rise to... over $100/bl if purchased with US$ alone. It will cost , perhaps $8.00/bl if purchased with an additional, tiny amount of gold. Perhaps, in a time before 2000... "

This appears to be a monumental world crisis much worse than the depression of the early 20th century. Could U expand further ?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:04 - ID#257136)
Sorry 'bout that!!
It was noit my intent to slander such a fine person as you by calling you a despised name such as bureaucrat.
Force of habit, I guess.
History, as well as personal experience has taught me that when push comes to shove and it is a choice of doing the "RIGHT" thing and possibly protecting the citizens' interest, the "average" bureaucrat will do the expedient.
Self interest is the ruling principle among career gubmnt"workers".

My post was meant to be more a condemnation of the process and policies of the entrenched bureaucracies as they implement the desires of the "duly elected leaders".
I am not truthfully able to state definitively that I have ever seen a principle adhered to if it was a case of CTA ( as opposed to CYA )
of the political one or be dismissed for "dereliction of duty" or some such other catchall phrase.
There are many shades of grey in a bureaucracy.
No such well defined things such as black and white, right or wrong,matters of principle rather than expediency, etc.

The average person across the planet has the deck stacked against him, due in large part to the attitudes and behavior of the "Career Civil Servant".

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:06 - ID#26793)
Should we return to the Gold Standard? Three different views.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:09 - ID#403277)
Pounds, ounces etc.
Engineer: You are trying to tell us that 12 ouces Troy = 16 ounces Avoirdupois = 1 pound. Not so! the Troy pound is not equal to the Avoir pound. See posts from 223 and Barb and me.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:10 - ID#284255)
Caught in a conundrum.
Thanks for the reply.
I can grasp what you are saying and can see the effect upon the markets.

My swing chart has just given me the same strong buy signal.
Only seen three times before in the last three years.

What intrigues me is whether or not the dow earnings will still fall.
Surely that will have to negate the bull.

Can we still have the exhuberant bull with bad earnings?

Dow/Gold chart back to 1980
The ratio chart looks like MSFT's share price.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:12 - ID#243180)
Tried to get to the 3 views but couldn;t,,,, 1 could not find the URL, the other could not be found at Town-Hall,,,, the other was in limbo-space...,,, will try later, though,,,, thanx!

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:14 - ID#256326)
ROFLOL! "Still and all," as Aunt Nelly used to say, "there's a lot to be said for expediency." Sure beats imbecilic "principles."

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:18 - ID#60253)

Date: Sat Feb 14 1998 19:34

Preacher ( ANOTHER; A Question ) ID#225273:

free flow of oil is more important than the Pacific economies. Could you explain your view on that more clearly? 

Mr. Preacher,

A time ago, the Asians were buying great amounts of gold thru South Africa. This alone was enough to drive the price of physical very high. As cheap oil required low gold, this action was, not good. In addition, during this time, a person in Hong Kong was moving many wealths into much paper gold in London. The amount leveraged was so large, in physical terms, that delivery would not happen, as no CB would sell that much. This gold paper was purchased from $365 down with intent to buy all at production cost ( below $300US ) . Much of this paper was converted, but London had to sell so much new volume that it changed the paper market, forever! That is why the CB had been seen as selling to honor this paper. The BIS stopped the CB sales and drove physical gold from Asia as a last resort! Oil has locked the CB and IMF gold from sales of significance. What metal that trades worldwide, is all there is.

Perhaps, this has answered your first question, also. WW3? Wars are fought over oil, not gold!

thank you.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:19 - ID#26793)
@WetGold: This URL gives a summary of the three views.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:25 - ID#340459)
@ANOTHER, Brother you are top of the line...
Thanks for your THOUGHTS

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:25 - ID#26793)
@Sharefin-Earnings. First qtr. in 4 years they did not exceed expectations.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:26 - ID#257136)
orofile( as it pertains to imbeciles, et. al.!!)
Imbeciles are lower on the intelligence scale than are motons. Morons are those from 70 IQ points on down to maybe 40 + or -. I cannot recall where the idiots and imbeciles stand on the scale of intelligence.

I've never been exposed to imbeciles except during a quick walk through of a State Mental Hospital.

I did, however work with a lot of folks who had no principles, but they could not blame their lack of native telligence for that!

Principles are guidelines inculcated as we mature.
If not absorbed from worthy parents, they must be learned in the school
of hard knocks.

The fact still remains: expediency is to the bureaucrat and the politician the same as a lampost is to a drumk-- the drunk uses the lamppost for support.
You guess how the politicians and bureaucrats use expediency!

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:26 - ID#403277)
took up curling last winter. He could hit any rock on the ice with his out turn, but he screwed his in turn.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:30 - ID#243180)
One of the many principles of Islamic banking is that "... Islam allows only one kind of loan and that is qard-el-hassan ( literally good loan ) whereby the lender does not charge any interest or additional amount over the money lent... ".

Many Islamic banking principles seem to provide little support that followers of Islam are spiritually bound not to "take advantage" of leveraging their wealth to support new wealth.

Any comments ?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:34 - ID#256326)
"Another" Riddle
In the words of the immortal Danny Kaye, "the chalice from the palace has the brew that is true."

I was once the buggiest of the goldbugs. I sense that I am free at last.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:37 - ID#255217)
Weighing precious metals
For those who are interested, precious metals are always weighed using the metric system. Everybody knows that. But some might not know that when the metals are expressed in TONS , the units are METRIC tons, unless otherwise stated. A metric ton is, very simply, 1,000,000 ( one million ) grams. A metric ton is close to, but NOT exactly an avoirdupois ton, which we all know is 2000 pounds, avoirdupois. A metric ton is 2204.58 pounds, avoirdupois.

A ( metric ) ton of gold would thus be 1,000,000 grams or 32,150.7 TROY ounces. 32,150.7 T.O. X $300/T.O. = $9,645,210.00. 260 metric tons would then be 260 M.T. X $9,645,210.00 = $2,507,754,600.00 or $2.5077546 billion.

This is a little belated and will perhaps only serve to confuse more. This is not intended and my only intent is to enlighten those who are not aware of the difference between a metric ton and an avoirdupois ton. I am doing this from memory as I used to be in the coin/precious metals business. Not now, though. Hope I didn't make a mistake in the arithmetic. I'm sure someone will let me know if I did.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:38 - ID#335190)
Donald_A @ 20:06 - Interesting post-Gold & Poor & Kemp & Dow Jones & Medicare-(Canada Medical Next)
Gold Standard? Three different views !

""Jude Wanniski is a key architect of supply-side economics and a long-time guru to Jack Kemp.So it is no surprise that Wanniski would have an opinion about Paul Krugman's article "The Spiral of Inequality" in the November/December issue of Mother Jones.

But he threw us for a spin with arguments like "...the poor have become fat and happy, the rich impoverished. This is why we are in the fix we are in. Everyone wants to be poor, because it has so many advantages!"

Date: Fri, 01 Nov 1996 12:04:41 -0500
From: "Paul R. Krugman"
Subject: Hey Jude

On wealth and poverty: I knew that Wanniski believed in the gold standard. I did not know that he regards gold as the only valid measure of purchasing power, independent of what useful objects that gold can buy. Over the past 30 years the rich have become able to afford to live in much bigger houses, drive or be driven in much fancier cars, take much more lavish vacations, and hire many more servants. Nonetheless Wanniski insists that they have suffered because the Dow Jones has not kept up with the price of gold.

Meanwhile, the poor have become "fat and happy", because they know that they will receive $35,000 in Medicare benefits each year, "paid for by the rich, who are the nation's producers". Actually, Medicare is paid for with payroll deductions, which means that most of the burden falls on the middle class. The current Medicare expenditure per retiree is less than
$6,000 - where did that $35,000 number come from?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:49 - ID#426220)
SIX NEW ANALYTICAL REPORTS AT golden-eagle (sans the en)

World-acclaimed analysts in their particular areas of expertise:

Profit From Silver & Gold -- Mooney

Countdown To Chaos - Y2K

Canadian Petroleum Perspective -- Robb Moss

The Inger Letter Forecast

General Market View For February 1998 -- Wayne Crimi


See golden-eagle Hot-News Box at URL ( just delete the letters en in golden below ) :

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:49 - ID#340459)
(ANOTHER). what are your THOUGHTS on morality of the current financial system for fair distribution
resources amongst the populace, Thanks..

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:50 - ID#60253)

Date: Sat Feb 14 1998 19:58

Heavy Hitter ( ANOTHER ) ID#403159:

but maybe you have a hunch?

Mr. Hitter,

The price of hunch is very to high for investment! It is the reason so many paper gold buyers take on appearance of  to much sun! I offer this, do not use the solid reasons for owning physical gold, as a purpose to trade it. Your profits from such trade, will, on the last day, in the heat of fire, burn as paper does! Sir, the world is going to change, and the rules of engagement will also change. Gold will be repriced, once! It will be enough for your time of life.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 20:51 - ID#284255)
Bullish exhuberance
Thanks, I have read the article and that leads to the conundrum.
Earnings will come down further which equates to equities as well.
But now the bull is bulling in face of these facts.

Sort of like when we talked of AG being between a rock and a hard spot.
I see the exhuberant bull being in the same position.

I cant wait till gold takes on these same exhuberant qualities.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 21:01 - ID#225273)
ANOTHER & Interest rates

Thank you for that answer. Perhaps I'm dense, but I'm still not clear on how driving the gold from the HK traders collapsed the Pacific economies.

Also, you are looking for lower short-term interest rates, but skyrocketing long-term rates along with a higher US$.

While M. Aurelius is afraid the New World Order is about to CHECKMATE the world, significantly higher long-term interest rates would CHECKMATE the US and the NWO would go right down the tubes. Because with the massive $5.5 trillion debt, higher rates would make financing it impossible.
There was an article in Foreign Affairs, the quarterly journal of the Council on Foreign Relations, last fall saying the NWO was dead already.

The Preacher

(Sat Feb 14 1998 21:04 - ID#183109)
Is it safe to assume you'd be opposed to the use of a tactical nuke as well? I enjoy hearing your side of this discussion, even if your posts contain gross exaggerations...."scores of thousands of innocent Iraqi civilians" = 40,000 plus? No way.

And your point on DETERRENCE would be a very valid one, if you assume that Saddam thinks rationally. His actions IMO suggest otherwise. I certainly hope that this is all resolved in a peaceful manner, but unless Saddam changes his tune, I think we can expect to see a very serious pounding. And for our discussion here, I guess the million dollar question should be, how will this affect the PRICE OF GOLD?

I'm in agreement with you on WACO, and have a strong dislike for the ATF and how they handled that, but can you really call it a church full of women and childen? Maybe a semi-fort with many well-armed men would also be appropriate. At any rate, here's the article to keep things stirred up around here. ( I'm trying to max out Bart's bandwidth ) : )

Saddam Hussein's palaces could be among these targets; Iraq has refused to allow U.N. arms inspectors to search them for banned weapons.

Some of these sites could be hard to reach. Defense officials fear the conventional U.S. arsenal would be unable to penetrate deeply buried bunkers that may house weapon- making laboratories. Pentagon spokesman Kenneth Bacon earlier this week pointedly declined to rule out the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons against these fortified targets

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 14 1998 21:06 - ID#403159)
Thank you. So in other words gold will
plateau at some point and should remain
fairly constant in price and don't worry about
taking profits or trading it.
Enjoyed your other thoughts as well
and sure appreciate your wise words
of wisdom.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 21:10 - ID#20748)
Naive to think of bureaucrats as crafters of policy. Bureaucrats discuss options of how best to execute policy dictated by their political masters. Policies formulated by one administration are passed along to the next, who may or may not adopt them.

An order is an order and officials at no level stop to investigate legitimacy. Especially when time is of essence, ask any Arkansas state trooper.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 21:12 - ID#340459)
@POLARBEAR, Elvis S is trying for Gold roght now, The Palaces are now OPEN to UN as we speak in Iraq

Steve in TO__A
(Sat Feb 14 1998 21:12 - ID#209265)
Re: Midas_A & Forklift
You know I have to wonder whether once a mess occurs, whether the idea is not to blame everything on those "greedy people who hoard gold." In Korea, for example, the way to look patriotic is to hand in your gold under their silly bond scheme. It won't be too hard to extend that to mean that those who don't hand in their gold are "enemies" and "money launderers."

Franklin Roosevelt actually invoked the authourity of the WWI "Trading With the Enemy Act" when he confiscated gold. He claimed that everyone must cooperate since this was part of his scheme to combat the Depression, a "national emergency," and that hoarders were harming the state.

They are probably aware that gold is a source of stability, and that more money is laundered through offshore banks, but power is that name of the game, not intelligent action.


(Sat Feb 14 1998 21:19 - ID#340459)
@Steve_to, Elvis Stojko got silver, russia ilia got gold. In a world where you can term a "freedom
fighter" or a "terrorist" for the same act done in a society. It is indeed difficult.

Steve in TO__A
(Sat Feb 14 1998 21:20 - ID#209265)
Another thought
Concerning Roosevelt's gold confiscation. He recompensed everyone at the then-official price of $26.50/oz, and shortly thereafter devalued the US currency to $35/oz. Trade war was was waged though competitive devaluation by the Executive while Congress fought by means of protectionism ( the Smoot-Hawley Act. ) Roosevelt's aim was to make sure everyone participated in the devaluation, and that nobody would have an "unfair" way to profit from it. The trade wars that occurred all over the world deepened the severity of the Depression for all countries.

Politicians want unquestioning obedience from you- not rational discussion.


(Sat Feb 14 1998 21:21 - ID#243180)
Another Islamic rule is that "Muslims are encouraged to purchase and are discouraged from keeping money idle so that, for instance, hoarding money is regarded as being unacceptable".

How do Muslims in the Middle East and around the world reconcile this in their pursuit of GOLD with the "New Paradigm" ?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 21:22 - ID#433286)
Another Excuse my brashness
Sir- As you know much speculation occurs on this site regarding your background ie. nationality, gender, profession and on and on and on. Yet, I never read of anyone asking you about details of what you may consider private aspects of your life. Is there any of this information you would mind sharing with us? If I have been rude in asking --please excuse. My intent is not to offend you. Just curious.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 21:25 - ID#286234)
As I recall kilograms are a units of mass and are not convertible to pounds which are units of force. A kilogram exerts a force of about 2.2 pounds near the earths surface but in deep space it is nearly weightless. So if you buy your gold by the gram or kilo you can do it anywhere but if you buy it by the ounce, pound, ton or tonne you are better off buying in it outer space.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 21:27 - ID#243180)
Steve in TO___A
You posted: "... the then-official price of $26.50/oz, and shortly thereafter devalued the US currency to $35/oz... "

The confiscated level was $20.67, then raised to $31.26 after the confiscation. Finally to $35 so that the U.S. CB could make a profit on their trade value after the initial confiscation...

(Sat Feb 14 1998 21:29 - ID#153102)
A little more on the political metal
Gold would be apolitical or politically neutral as the monetary unit for international trade. So, long as gold itself is traded for paper fiat currency, it is not truly politically neutral because it is subject to manipulation by CB sales and short paper futures sellers.

I think it is preposterous to say gold "will be repriced once" unless you are talking about international pricing in an international marketplace, a place to and from which gold can be moved without legal hindrance. Any nation that has a paper currency will always have an internal paper price for gold, whether the currency is fiat or not.

So far as I know Americans are the only people on earth who have an implied Constitutional right to gold and silver coin as money. I do not think it wwas coincidental that when the federal reserve note was disconnected from gold in 1971, the law was changed allowing Americans to again buy and own gold. Because the silver had been taken out of coin after 1966? . Though the law may have slept, it is not dead.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 21:30 - ID#238422)
Goldhawk - you are great! Lets see what happens...

(Sat Feb 14 1998 21:32 - ID#60253)

Date: Sat Feb 14 1998 20:00

WetGold ( ANOTHER ) ID#243180:

This appears to be a monumental world crisis much worse than the

depression of the early 20th century. Could U expand further ?

Mr. WetGold,

In the past, nations and states have lost all as  the world changed and these entities lost the ability to trade, at a profit. It is as history, and happened many times. Today, it is not the same. The wealth of nations are held as thoughts of value not real value! And even these thoughts are in debt as they are owed to other nations. As it has always been, time moves the minds of people to change, and with this, the thoughts of value also change. In this day, as not in the past, the loss of paper value as a concept will destroy the very foundation of wealth that this economic system is built on. This drama has started and is well underway!

There are nations that will try to resource a new currency as the old financial system implodes. Oil or gold or both may be used. If it is done at the correct time, much will be gained by all! Fail this Attempt, and gold will never trade on an open exchange again, in our lifetime! We will see this end in our time.

thank you.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 21:34 - ID#222231)
ANOTHER - Many ifs.
If the $US is backed by cheap oil because the dirivative market sustained this condition and
If the dirivative markets are finally becoming unstable and
If this unstability is or might be caused by failure of Asian markets and
If the Asians are wise to the international Bankers and know that they ( Bankers ) are caught between a rock and a hard place and
If the bailout fails which is meant to pay these Bankers thier dirivative transactions
Then we must not be far from a complete world financial meltdown.

Throughout history, wars are fought because of economics. Is the world being setup for a conflict by means of Iraq? Is this the reason for all the media hype and propaganda to get us used to a war between a 500# Gorilla and a battered country that can barely survive besides become involved in a war?
Or is it the US might unite the Muslim World against us infidels because of this action which could be deemed a final insult to the Arab World and thereby cause WW!!!.
This could take them out of the pickle they're in now. Organize the masses with patriosim and fervor thereby taking thier minds off the financial collapse that is coming and avert same.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 21:34 - ID#238422)
Sam, this is wonderful what you just said.
However, I can not figure out all this kilos,
pounds, tonnes or space stuff...

Lets just buy gold in bars...

(Sat Feb 14 1998 21:35 - ID#7568)

Comex calls are actually calls written against futures contracts, so the deliverable is a futures contract. Of course one may take delivery on the futures so in the end physical metal is available. There is some regulatory risk in the Comex as the Hunt Bro's found out. So there is no guarantee that metal will be forthcoming.

In the OTC market the two parties to the contract are bound by the contractual laws of the country or state in which the contract is executed. The terms of the option are freely negotiated. When we did our palladium options they were cash settled against London PM fix. Try as we might we could not get anyone to write options against the physical metal. The London PM fix part of the option led to a very interesting game when we exited our position. Its a story for another night.

Hate to post and run, but its been a long day. Pleasant dreams.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 21:46 - ID#403277)
Buying gold in bars..
Oris: Only trouble there is you can't drink it.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 21:51 - ID#286234)
Bars, yes!

Oris, you must have "passed out" and missed my question a few weeks ago. I risk getting cut off and/or flamed, but I must know- What does Tony Packo pickle? Is it peppers? I am attempting to find a suitable substitute for Tony's.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:02 - ID#340459)
Goodnight Folks, May we all prosper in coming times, Ameen

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:04 - ID#31868)
Donald_A This is why the FED should be abolished
From the URL on the gold standard " The current world monetary system assigns no special role to gold; indeed, the Federal Reserve is not obliged to tie the dollar to anything. It can print as much or as little money as it deems appropriate. "

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:06 - ID#238422)
Yes, you can not drink it, but you can leak it...

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:07 - ID#238422)
I forgot - ... and suck it.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:08 - ID#227290)
Pete & War

That's a great question for ANOTHER. This is what I have also been wondering. If the CBs know the oil states have cornered the gold and will have possession of it, there's no way they will not try to get it back, even through military means.

The Preacher

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:09 - ID#31868)
FDR was a traitor plain and simple

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:14 - ID#238422)
Sam - THERE IS JUST NO substitute for Tony Packo's
Pickles. It's actually called "Pickles & Peppers-
- Original" All you can do is to relocate to Corunna,
Michigan, where our Meyers always has this brand on
shelf, buy it and enjoy...
Or get in touch wwith guys from The Tony Packo
Food Company, in Toledo,OH., for the name of your
local distributor. You see, I'm damn serious about
this stuff.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:14 - ID#335190)
Bank Notes @ Toilet Paper=New Use for CULTURE&GEOGRAPHY&CURRENT AFFAIRS=Challenge-Irritation
February 14, 1998
Toilet paper with literary feel introduced in France

LE MANS, France ( AP )  For French readers too shy to drag a Flaubert novel to the toilet, a Normandy radio station manager has the answer: toilet paper with a literary feel.

Carrying small articles on French culture, geography and current affairs,
the "Petit Lutin" toilet tissue has been snapped up from department stores in northern France, where it began a test run last week.

"It's selling almost three times better than a normal toilet paper of the same quality," said Jean-Louis Ducatel, manager of the Leclerc department store in Arconnay.

Christian Poincheval, who worked on the concept for 15 years, said developing an ink that doesn't stain or irritate the skin was a particular challenge.

New "editions" of Petit Lutin, French for Little Goblin, will come out monthly.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:18 - ID#215379)
Midas, Serpent controlling the globe
My friend, the Serpent has controlled this Globe since 1914

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:20 - ID#31868)
mozel 20:21
Thank you very much. Americans have the right to gold and silver coin. Thank you very much!!!!!!!

People wake up, the government cannot arbitrarily tell you what to do. The Constitution is there for a reason as is the Bill of Rights.

Wake up and demand your Constitutional rights.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:22 - ID#60253)

Date: Sat Feb 14 1998 21:01

Preacher ( ANOTHER & Interest rates ) ID#225273:

Thank you for that answer. Perhaps I'm dense, but I'm still not clear on how driving the gold from the HK traders collapsed the Pacific economies ?


These Pacific economies were on the edge for some time, that is why many peoples there were buying gold. As the financial systems approached resolution,  the OPPORTUNITY was observed to allow the currencies to plunge, without help! Much gold ( not all ) was driven from the Pacific rim, and the buying has slowed much. Many underestimate the need to keep gold in the low $300US.

 Also, you are looking for lower short-term interest rates, but skyrocketing long-term rates along with a higher US$?


In an effort to maintain the dollar/oil bond. It is well to know that oil holds not long term US debt as backing for its currency. In the end the CBs will let the long bond plunge in price. That is why most of the US debt is not long, this change is for that time.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:27 - ID#335190)
Unemployment & Economic Threats & Immigration @ Cause & Need for a solution -
February 14, 1998
Membership in German Nazi groups growing

HAMBURG, Germany ( AP )  Membership in German Nazi groups has significantly increased since 1994, a magazine reported Saturday.

The numbers, reported by Hamburg-based Der Spiegel, are consistent with a rise in extremist crime German officials already have reported for 1997.

Some 7,500 people belong to Nazi cells throughout Germany, Spiegel said, citing numbers obtained from state agencies that monitor extremist groups. That compares with 5,400 in 1994, Spiegel said in its advance of a report to appear in Monday's edition.

Officials have blamed the increase partly on frustration with Germany's record unemployment of 12.6 per cent.

Many of the new members are 18-25 years old, Der Spiegel said. The government estimates attacks on foreigners by Nazis rose by 10 per cent last year over 781 attacks in 1996.

Hungarian state radio reported Saturday that German youths were among hundreds of black-uniformed skinheads who marched through Budapest to commemorate the 54th anniversary of Nazi troops breaking the Soviet siege of the city in the Second World War.

Calling itself the Hungarian National Front Line, the group marched in formation, carrying Nazi flags. Istvan Gyoerkoes, 55, the group's leader, who has been taken to court for fascist activities several times, told the youths they should follow the example of their Nazi "heroes," who prized honor over their own lives. The breakthrough happened Feb. 11, 1944 but the march was held Saturday.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:27 - ID#286234)
Thanks, I will contact Tony's to find out if they distribute out here. I put some wires in my attic and can now get a fair television signal. So I am off to see people getting gold and silver and bronze in Nagano. Meanwhile suffering with vodka and Vlasic Jalapeno Pickles for the time being. Nazdrovia! ( spelling? )

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:27 - ID#227290)
ANOTHER: You just dropped a bombshell

Thanks for the explanation on Asia. Now I got it.
About the U.S debt holdings, common wisdom is that it was idiotic for the U.S. to roll out of long-term debt into short-term debt. You have just said it was by design, knowing that it will help the government remain solvent longer. Amazing.
Of course the holders of the long-term debt will get taken to the cleaners.

The Preacher

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:29 - ID#60253)
Date: Sat Feb 14 1998 21:21

WetGold ( ANOTHER ) ID#243180:

 How do Muslims in the Middle East and around the world reconcile this in their pursuit of GOLD with the "New Paradigm" ?

Sir, I do not know.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:30 - ID#224329)
Currency boards
A momentous decision is being made in Jakarta, Indonesia this week-end. that wll profoundly effect the economies of Southeast Asia
and eventually the entire world.. The objective: currency stability. The opposing ideas to attain this goal are between a currency board as advocated by Steve Hanke and the economic plan as outlined by the IMF. The Hanke plan is described in an article to follow and the IMF plan is a plan in general of raising taxes and further currency devaluation. Both will cause much pain and suffering. However, I believe that the currency board will stabilize the currency, if not aborted by the politicians, and the IMF plan will fail, no matter what happens.

Very little has been written in the print press about Steve Hanke and his advocacy of a currency board for Indonesia. However, here is an article that appeared in Thursday's Washington Post which relates some information about him:

This article appeared in today's Washington Post and gives some indication of the magnitude of the currency implications depending on which policy is adopted.:

Mr Hanke has shown great courage as an economist in taking such a strong stand in direct opposition to the policy of the IMF and his own Government. An understanding of the currency board concept can be gleaned from this article by Mr. Hanke in December 1995. It also discusses the different results obtained with a currencey board utilized in Argentina since 1991 and the results with a lack of one in Mexico in 1994.

If the currency board concept spreads throughout Southeast Asia ( Thailand is considering one ) , it will ultimately havea significant effect on the Dollar and its relationship to Gold. But more on that later........

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:33 - ID#243180)
I presume that since you have not responded to my posts regarding Islam that either they are not players OR you don't know of their reconcilation of their religious beliefs and its relavance ( or lack of ) in terms of gold.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:34 - ID#243180)
I had written my previous post without seeing your "I don't know". Thanx!

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:35 - ID#238422)
Spelling is fine. At 11.30 E.T. watch Russia-Finland
hockey game, should be interesting, I hope...

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:40 - ID#341214)
Vronsky, All - Countdown to Chaos: Y2K
Vronsky: Just a quick note to thank you for your inclusion of Countdown to Chaos, a Y2K related article, at your site. Please share with us your reasons for adding this type of article to golden eagle. Also, please tell us occasionally how many hits the article is getting compared to other new articles that you post on your site. As a programmer/analyst with 25+ years experience in the coding trenches I can atest to the severity of this situation. The sooner everyone can get past their denial and into planning for the safely of their family the better off they will be.

All: Please be sure to read this article and followup by taking a look at the other sites the article mentions.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:40 - ID#243180)
I have PM's, Real Estate, fiat paper, and market paper. My PM holdings are vast, debt of properties are less than 10% equity, and the paper I maintain to pay current expenses via dividends which I also use to increase paper capital and more PMs.

What will be the allocation mix of the upcoming wealth ?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:41 - ID#31868)
thanks for the excellent posts. Let me know if Hanke needs some bodyguards.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:46 - ID#31868)
Forgot to mention that every one should read your 18:13 post, yes, yes, yes, thank you for posting this. I hope more people will read this type of information.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:47 - ID#238422)
You have absolute right to support any
movement you want, including Nazis. I can
understand that. However, you should also
understand, that some day these guys, if
they try to do anything stupid/serious,
may run into life-threatening problem.
It is a dangerous profession to be Nazi...

Just a thought...

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:47 - ID#340459)
ABC is showing Homosexual marriages conducted in Christian Churches on TV right now, Times they are
a changing my this media.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:48 - ID#31868)
As a comedian once said, look at the upside, who else is going to have fewer abortions!


(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:50 - ID#41229)
Your posting of the upcoming events are not as urgent as they were in early December ( For buying physical ) . I take it that the system has more ability to avoid implosion that you speak of. What events did or did not happen that your group did not for see?

Also were're taking up a collection to keep the sight operable, are you guys in?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:51 - ID#60253)
Date: Sat Feb 14 1998 21:22

Goldhawk ( Another Excuse my brashness ) ID#433286:

 Just curious?

Mr. Goldhawk,

Your life and times, it would fill a book I would read with much thought and intent! My book would be thin as compared to this history of gold. Together, we will read this book of gold and live its modern life. It is the truth of this life of gold that pulls our minds to gain knowledge, not my life.

Mr. Pete, another time, thank you

I will be gone for a time.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:56 - ID#31868)
Okay class
What is older than the history of gold, any comments?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 22:58 - ID#340459)
@tolerant1, GOD is older than history of Gold

(Sat Feb 14 1998 23:00 - ID#339212)
@ tolerant1


(Sat Feb 14 1998 23:00 - ID#433286)
Sorry T 1
Just curosity and questions and much wonder on this end.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 23:01 - ID#238295)
Is Iran the real US-Israeli target in the gulf? Iraq atttack a dress rehersal for an attack on Iran?

The following article appeared last July;

M I D - E A S T R E A L I T I E S - QUOTE of the WEEK

"News, Analysis & Commentary They Don't Want You to Know"
*************************************************************** SLAUGHTERHOUSE IN



MER - There should be no doubt that the Americans and Israelis, supported under the table by the Saudis who
tremendous fear Iran, are preparing for possible destruction of the Iranian military. The Speaker of the House, Newt
Gingrich, and others have actually discussed such matters in public. Should there be another "terrorist" attack against
Americans in Saudi Arabia, or elsewhere in the area; or should some other plausible excuse take place -- such as an
airline bombing or an attack of some kind in the USA -- the American military might well be unleashed against Iran
this time. Hence recent warnings from the Iranians about closing the Straights of Hormuz, counterattacking against
U.S. and Israeli targets, and making a slaughterhouse out of the Gulf, should be understood as reactions by Iran to
the serious possibility that they are next in line in the list of countries the U.S. and Israel want to prostrate. The
following brief AP report, and the quotes attributed to the head of the Iranian military, are thus of considerable


TEHRAN, Iran ( AP ) 6/30/97 - Iran's top military commander has said his country does not intend to start a war with
the United States, but promised to turn the Persian Gulf into a slaughterhouse if attacked. ``If the Americans one day
decide to attack Iran, then they will have committed suicide because the Iranians will turn the region into a
slaughterhouse for them,'' said Maj. Gen. Mohsen Rezaie, commander of the 120,000-strong Islamic Revolution
Guards Corps, Iran's main fighting force. His comments, published Sunday in the English-language Kayhan
International daily, coincided with the start of four days of Iranian amphibious military exercises in the Persian Gulf.
The United States has about 22,000 troops in the area, a region Iran long has considered in its sphere of influence.
``The Persian Gulf belongs to the regional countries and the Americans should leave it,'' Rezaie said. ``Iran has vital
interests in the region and is going to defend its interests.'' Iranian officials say they are concerned over U.S.
warships in the gulf, particularly in the wake of American threats to retaliate if Iran is found to be behind a June 1996
bombing in Saudi Arabia that killed 19 U.S. servicemen. Iran has denied any role.

M I D - E A S T R E A L I T I E S ( 202 ) 362-5266, Ext 638 Fax: ( 202 ) 362-6965 MER@MiddleEast.Org>MER@MiddleEast.Org

*************************************************************** To receive MER weekly just send a
message to: LISTSERVER@MIDDLEEAST.ORG>LISTSERVER@MIDDLEEAST.ORG with only the words SUBSCRIBE MER-L in the subject and
message areas. ***************************************************************

For previous MER information, commentary, editorials & Readers Comments: http://WWW.MiddleEast.Org>http://WWW.MiddleEast.Org

M I D - E A S T R E A L I T I E S - QUOTE of the WEEK

"News, Analysis & Commentary They Don't Want You to Know"
*************************************************************** SLAUGHTERHOUSE IN



MER - There should be no doubt that the Americans and Israelis, supported under the table by the Saudis who
tremendous fear Iran, are preparing for possible destruction of the Iranian military. The Speaker of the House, Newt
Gingrich, and others have actually discussed such matters in public. Should there be another "terrorist" attack against
Americans in Saudi Arabia, or elsewhere in the area; or should some other plausible excuse take place -- such as an
airline bombing or an attack of some kind in the USA -- the American military might well be unleashed against Iran
this time. Hence recent warnings from the Iranians about closing the Straights of Hormuz, counterattacking against
U.S. and Israeli targets, and making a slaughterhouse out of the Gulf, should be understood as reactions by Iran to
the serious possibility that they are next in line in the list of countries the U.S. and Israel want to prostrate. The
following brief AP report, and the quotes attributed to the head of the Iranian military, are thus of considerable


TEHRAN, Iran ( AP ) 6/30/97 - Iran's top military commander has said his country does not intend to start a war with
the United States, but promised to turn the Persian Gulf into a slaughterhouse if attacked. ``If the Americans one day
decide to attack Iran, then they will have committed suicide because the Iranians will turn the region into a
slaughterhouse for them,'' said Maj. Gen. Mohsen Rezaie, commander of the 120,000-strong Islamic Revolution
Guards Corps, Iran's main fighting force. His comments, published Sunday in the English-language Kayhan
International daily, coincided with the start of four days of Iranian amphibious military exercises in the Persian Gulf.
The United States has about 22,000 troops in the area, a region Iran long has considered in its sphere of influence.
``The Persian Gulf belongs to the regional countries and the Americans should leave it,'' Rezaie said. ``Iran has vital
interests in the region and is going to defend its interests.'' Iranian officials say they are concerned over U.S.
warships in the gulf, particularly in the wake of American threats to retaliate if Iran is found to be behind a June 1996
bombing in Saudi Arabia that killed 19 U.S. servicemen. Iran has denied any role.

M I D - E A S T R E A L I T I E S ( 202 ) 362-5266, Ext 638 Fax: ( 202 ) 362-6965 MER@MiddleEast.Org

*************************************************************** To receive MER weekly just send a
message to: LISTSERVER@MIDDLEEAST.ORG with only the words SUBSCRIBE MER-L in the subject and
message areas. ***************************************************************

For previous MER information, commentary, editorials & Readers Comments: http://WWW.MiddleEast.Org

(Sat Feb 14 1998 23:01 - ID#284255)
which came first?

Adam and Eve

and then the apple

before the ibm

(Sat Feb 14 1998 23:01 - ID#256326)
tolerant1: history of prostitution? one gives their minds and the other their bodies?

(Sat Feb 14 1998 23:04 - ID#31868)
Shhhhh. Ya know, Ya know.....also there is more to the riddle ( s ) as is put forth by Another. But, without question, God is and must be the answer which supercedes all others.

No example or philisophical thought, without igniting the discussion of what God represents to such a diverse audience could possibly be placed higher, or first in order or chaos.

EB, a free pass to the entire nites festivities to Midas_A.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 23:12 - ID#57232)
Low short-term US debt by design?
ANOTHER: I am not clear on your reasoning. There are several things we know about short-term US debt:

1 ) The US Federal Reserve can control short-term debt, but not long term debt, so if money supply will need to be contracted, short term rates can be pushed up by the Fed. Free market forces control long-term US rates.

2 ) Most of US debt is now short term -- a big mistake -- because if there is a 'run' on the dollar, or inflation fears return, there will be serious concern about a US debt default several years later. Our creditor countries must know this.

3 ) We saw that certain SEAsian countries have or are planning to convert short-term debt into longer term debt -- as a means of self -- protection. This clearly demonstrates that during times of crisis governments will do the very thing they should have done during better times -- but it is now at the expense of the creditor. What might happen if the US did that with Oil producer and other creditors? I don't like to think about what that would do to the dollar. Of course, they would do this first to the average American before they did that with foreign investors.

I have another question about SEAsia. You say that some sort of gold-related crisis contributed to the SEAsian currency implosion. Do you think that key banks sold off all their gold due to a crisis before the implosion? Another explanation is that the gold was sold when the crisis was in evolution -- so I am not clear on cause and effect without knowing the actual series of events leading up to the SEAsian crisis.

I have one last question. Why have you apparently changed you mind about imminent currency immolation? Is there some good news you have heard?

Always appreciate your posts -- thank you in advance.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 23:21 - ID#284255)
ANOTHER updated

Just doing the housework.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 23:27 - ID#57232)
Old Gold: If we are even talking about a battle with Iran that is bad news indeed, just when the current Iranian president appears to be talking peace.

I remember months ago learning about a secret defense treaty between Iraq, Iran, Egypt, and Syria. Apparently the pivotal most western country Egypt was coerced by implied terrorist activity. The problem with all of this is that it appears that the senior Israeli intelligence officer who reported this has recanted, and said that he manufactured most of the info about this, without proof. Unfortunately, justified or unjustified fears of war lead to defense proliferations, which tend to lead to war anyway.

I hope that cooler heads prevail, and we just have a war of nerves. Currently, a US attack on Iraq might be percieved as 'unprovoked', and precipitate someting worse. I think our presence has a stabilizing effect if there is a secret Iran, Iraq, Syria, egypt treaty -- just as much to prevent war on the arab side as on the israeli side. But only if we can withold from actually squeezing the trigger. As OldSoldier has said, the biggest benefit from a strong military is keeping the peace, not fighting a war. But that means that our leaders must be very disciplined, and make decisions based on world events, not for the need for distraction from local political crises such as Monicagate.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 23:38 - ID#432298)
Subject matter in this discussion group........
Am I wrong or is this discussion group about everything else but precious metals? I read a lot of postings in here on every subject matter but precious metals.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 23:38 - ID#237299)
Tolerant1 ,
couldn't agree more.

Once in the 60s?, I read this small book, Think it was called "Sissor
Sam says be sharp" about some traveling sissor salesman who had home-
spun words of wisdom. One of his pet sayings was,

"stay sharp, be neat, and always go direct"

I always smile at the last part, since I can think of no better way to
go direct than a well placed prayer.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 23:40 - ID#330175)
Go Finland

(Sat Feb 14 1998 23:43 - ID#340459)
@Gazebo, Tis the Saturday nite and markets are closed, Some are having a drink for respite.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 23:48 - ID#340459)
G'nite All and Thanks.

(Sat Feb 14 1998 23:52 - ID#31868)
And now the die are cast; hmmmmmm, Another; 18:20 - the prinicpals of lust are easy to understand. Hmmmmmm - acknowledegment - worth of a specific, clocked, logged and measured, Hmmmmmmmm and a willingness of payment.

He might walk backwards through the snow in backwards snow shoes, but now there is a trail. Start to move very slowly, let the rythm guide us to the prey.

An enigma is unclothed in the light or dark. Underwater light and dark represent the same thing. No matter how out of focus. Hmmmmmmmm

Hmmmmm, Another, namaste', Hmmmmmmmm

(Sat Feb 14 1998 23:56 - ID#31868)
A shot of Tequila, to ya. gulp...Namaste'

(Sat Feb 14 1998 23:56 - ID#243180)
Thanx for your tidy work around the house...

(Sat Feb 14 1998 23:56 - ID#432298)
Good enough reason for me... I think I'll make a margarita and kick back and listen in.