Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 00:02 - ID#162148)
How many??
polarbear: If you'll defend the baby burning at Waco, you'll certainly support burning the babies of Baghdad. Tactical nukes would probably be more humane than our present policy of starving the young and innocent in Iraq. As for your charge of "exaggeration", I posted here previously that we had caused the death of half a million by our draconian sanctions. It now appears that I was too conservative by about 100%.

Since our government admits to killing 100,000 in the air war of '90-'91, and this time they intend to do it "better", maybe I should have said hundreds instead of scores of thousands. Look, I know its gonna be done, no matter what I or anyone else says. But at least I have a clear conscience, since I have stated loudly and clearly that it is not for me or for mine that it is to be done. No one can stop it. The "POWER" wills it. When a man who fought in the Israeli army, and was not even a citizen of the U.S. when Bill Klinton became President is now the Ass't. Secretary of State for mid-east affairs for the U.S.A., the Arabs dont have much chance. At least we can take some solace in the fact that the markets are saying WE wont take many casualties. My conscience being now clear on the subject, I shall not address it again.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 00:08 - ID#228262)
troy ounces and avoir. ounces

You are correct! My handbook tells me 1 troy lb = 373.2418 grams; 1 avoir lb = 453.5924 grams; 12ozst/0.8229 lbsa = 14.5826ozst/1 lba Lets redo the calcs: 1kg = 2.20462 lbsa x 14.5826ozst/1 lba = 32.149ozst/1 kg; 1 kg = 2.20462 lbsa x 16ozsa/1 lba = 35.274ozsa/1 kg 1 tonne = 1000kgs x 32.149ozst/1 kg = 32,149ozst/1 tonne; 1 tonne = 1000kgs x 35.274ozsa/1 kg = 35,274ozsa/1 tonne 1 ton = 2000 lbsa x 14.5826ozst/1 lba = 29,165.2ozst/1 ton 1 ton = 2000 lbsa x 16ozsa/1 lba = 32,000ozsa/1 ton Finally: 1 tonne = 1000kgs x 2.20462lbsa/1 kg = 2,2046.2lbsa/1 tonne; 1 ton = 2000lbsa, again these are all metric and English gravitational units. After 10yrs retirement i was a little rusty. I appreciate and thank you for catching the error in my earlier post. Regards Engineer

(Sun Feb 15 1998 00:18 - ID#31868)
to all
Who among you would wish the death of the youth you have passed on through your wife or husband and wish this to be dead.

Speak up, I myself will never lose my faith in love of the children.

Anyone who speaks against the defenseless is my enemy.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 00:24 - ID#156161)
Discussions here, lately, have been about how the price of precious metal is going to get where it's going.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 00:26 - ID#57232)
Truth about Iraq? Saddam one of the best in ME? We can ask Old Soldier.
James, Oldman: I would like very much for you to direct me to evidence that Saddam is actually one of the most generous, people-oriented leaders in the Middle East.

As you both know, I do not consider anything our news propaganda machine says as gospel. I try to corroborate everthing. I would say the same for any other source of information. Our news media is now controlled by about 5 large organizations, so it is sadly much less free than it was years ago. I am eagerly awaiting the entrance of satellite/cable news from non-US sources for this reason. Have you all seen what 'The Times' and what 'The Economist' have said about Clinton for years? They are better informed than we are. And Pierre Salinger's comments about flight 800? But -- strangely enough this is meeting much resistance. I wonder why?

What I know about Saddam is that years ago our government supported him to counter Iraq, as we have supported other dictators. I do not doubt that he did some good things for his people at that time, in addition to building 60 or so palaces, as well as all of those bunkers,etc. But -- it puzzles me why he is so quick to kill his own family members when they dissent -- such as the one that masterminded his weapons systems during the Kuwair war. He ( and others ) had escaped to Jordan not long ago, and later returned to be with their families in Iraq when they thought they were being allowed to. They were immediately executed. King Hussein of Jordan was incensed by this, and finally withdrew his support of Saddam. You may recall that Jordan was one of the few Arab countries that supported Saddam during the Kuwair war. Hence it says alot if that support is removed. Saddam, like many dictators, is quick to execute his enemies, and any others that threaten him. He does not strike me as someone whom I would want to live next door. But I would not like Kadaffy ( sp? ) , or the Syrian or Irani leaders next door either. Mobarek, and King Hussein of Jordan I respect much more.

What is really serious about this matter is not whether Saddam is truly evil or not, but whether we are dumb enough to attack Saddam unprovoked, as we would be playing into his hands. The really serious matter is that Iran, Syria, Egypt are probably allied with Iraq, and have tired of having Israel's thorn in their side, with US support. The non-Iraq countries in this supposed alliance are not necessarily willing to lie down and let Saddam rule them, but they do admire his stance against the US and Israel. They may thus support Iraq if we blunder, because they dislike Israel more than they fear Saddam.

I hope this explains my stance -- I do not consider myself naive in this matter -- but I am always open to contrary ideas. What amuses me about all of this conversation about whether Saddam is really evil or not - or my naivety - is that it is irrelevant. My conclusions are still the same as all of yours that an unprovoked US attack on Iraq is folly.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 00:26 - ID#31868)
We can always shoot the bastard. It is a right of ours. I address the comments of Jefferson, Paine, Hamilton, Madison and Jay and those other wacky kids who sought freedom and liberty.

Pigs that march should be turned into hotdogs.

I do not remember Sir, murder through political gains. Sir. There is none of this in the Constitution or Bill of Rights. Sir.

Most respectfully Sir, I would never raise a weapon unless, we know the rest, do we not. Revolution Sir is the water from which the tree of liberty can flourish.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 00:31 - ID#339212)
@ tolerant1 re: your 00:18 post

tolerant1: "Anyone who speaks against the defenseless is my enemy"

Iraq is parctically defensless against the US might. Is the US your enemy? Could you please clarify your position towards the US? I believe you are serving in the US armed forces.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 00:34 - ID#31868)
I apologize to you, not for what I did or said, but for the obvious, which is that I cannot defend your position better than you. I do believe that you deserve the benefit of the doubt, even when I disagree.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 00:43 - ID#335190)
oris @ 22:47
Date: Sat Feb 14 1998 22:47
oris ( 6pak ) ID#238422:
You have absolute right to support any movement you want, including Nazis. Just a thought...

oris: Here is a thought for you. Yes, you have the absolute right to support those groups of choice, or, not to support such groups. RIGHT !

World War I & World War II, the USofA was johnny come lately. Why was that ?

Did the "We The People" decide not to join the Canadian group fighting against Germany in 1914 & 1939. NO! USofA vested interests, made that decision WHY?

Did the "We The People" want Canada to give support to the War in the Middle East. NO!. Canadian's elected a Liberal Government, the Liberals did not run on a platform of support for USofA Foreign Middle East Policy. Yet, we as a nation via elected Prime Minister, and his majority Canadian Liberal Citizens, are now supporting the USofA vested interests.

I suggest the USofA Central Bankers/Corporations, wanted Canada to join in 1998. The Canadian people. has had no say in the matter. Except, via Canadian USofA Corporate supporter Lackeys, elected as a majority Canadian Liberal Party.

In 1914 these USofA vested interests did not join."We The People" Forced them by 1918
In 1939 these USofA vested interests did not join."We The People" Forced them by 1941 Pearl Harbor.

Yes, the USofA vested interests, supported the very group that you suggest "It is a dangerous profession to be Nazi... "

Thanks Take Care.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 00:44 - ID#31868)
Myrmidon - one portion of a response
previously posted.

My Father grew up in Hells Kitchen in NY during the depression. He then went on to become the youngest officer in the intelligence corps ( CIC ) in the United States Military. He wrote speeches for Eisenhower, Smith, Patton and others. He was one of the very first Officers into the Death Camps. You did not move around the European theatre as they called it unless he signed the orders.

The best friends ( the kids in his neighborhood ) he had died defending this Great Country. Each one of his six best buddies sacrificed their lives so that we might live in a free world. A great many human beings from other countries that befriended my Father, whom he cared deeply about, gave up their lives to stop the murdering bastards.

The only bastards were not overseas by a long shot.

My hatred of the above mentioned specific bastards stems from my father's resignation. He resigned his position because the Washington crowd wanted his help to bring NAZIS into the United States after World War II. He refused. They did bring NAZIS onto United States soil, the same soil of freedom that was watered by his friends and many other's blood. Until the day he died they called and wanted him back. I hung up the phone on those lying bastards. That he should be bothered by the likes of them. I would not spit on them. I would however hit them with Armenian Ten Inch Knuckles. ( it's a saying if you are unfamiliar )

These things that they did were not only on American soil. Washington is a charge card and we are getting the bill. WE THE PEOPLE are paying for crimes we would as a people never allow. NEVER.

Those lying bastards know me, where I live and they can KISS my America Loving ASS. Just in case you are interested I HAVE SAID IT TO THEIR LYING BASTARD FACES.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 00:46 - ID#31868)
Myrmidon, the next comment
Where there is no dream, the people perish. We must collectively provide hope, and challenge the human spirit. Life is effort, when any individual no longer believes this they begin to wither.

Individuals that confront challenges, disabilities and disadvantages awaken each day with a sense of worth, becoming more valuable to themselves and society as a whole.

I do not pretend to be a master of the issues, nor do I believe that I alone have the collective wisdom and foresight to make responsible decisions that will effect our lives as well as generations of the unborn yet to come. We all need to actively participate in the decisions pertaining to the world we live in and share.

Now is the time to act, to help reshape common thought and let peace, tranquillity, wisdom and spirituality guide all of us as we enter an era when humankind can truly appreciate the integrity of creation.

The entire range of inter-cultural and international affairs is at an unprecedented point in human history. There is no question that as we hurtle towards the dawn of the 21st century a miraculous window of opportunity is opening. A new age renaissance, wherein all citizens of the world will come to truly understand their inter-dependence upon one another.

Business as usual is no longer the standard fare on the global plate, new methods, a new form of understanding and a true desire to communicate are quickly altering the self-imposed myths that have held back humanity from moving forward into the sun lit river known as the future.

Instead of acting like children that shy away from the dark, let us move together, step by step, hand in hand, into a world which is illuminated by sensitivity, intellect and compassion. Let the global populace embrace a universal sense of community through the individual gift that each member of humanity brings into the world.

We must strive for a world where there is freedom to access and access to freedom. A world in which people realize that communication and teamwork are essential for all of us to live in community.

We have the tools, let each of us learn how to put them to work.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 00:53 - ID#243180)
easy mate,,,,, take it eeeeeasyyyyyyyyy.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 00:54 - ID#266105)
@don't fergit yer day job, floyd

Of much maligned intelligence researcher Arthur Jensen:

'True creativity is not evenly equated to intelligence. As Berkeley

Professor Arthur R. Jensen has pointed out:

. . . one should never equate IQ with genius. Very few high-IQ persons ever become geniuses in the genuine sense of making contributions

recognized by the intellectual, scientific, and artistic world as

extraordinarily outstanding. Yet most of the world's geniuses come from

the upper part of the IQ distribution, virtually without exception.

Superior intelligence is a necessary but far from sufficient condition for extraordinary intellectual achievement. The concept of "genius" has no authentic meaning except in terms of achievement. Shakespeare's genius is in his plays. Beethoven's genius is in his symphonies.'


"Genius the world over stands hand in hand, and one shock

of recognition runs the whole circle round."

- Herman Melville

Hawthorne and His Mosses; 1850

To paraphrase tolerant1/Buckwheat; genius is as genius does.

It is my final and only diploma beyond 12th grade. My poor

wife, my rich kids. Thank you. ( bow ) Clunk.

Out to the blues, on to the road.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 00:55 - ID#57232)
DOW 10000-- rally into 1999-2000? Eventually bullish for gold/goldstocks anyway
Oldman: I agree with you that the market is rallying -- defying gravity as far as I can tell. There is talk that AG may lower rates because he is more afraid of deflation than market inflation. No more irrational exhuberance?

My reasoning is that all of this is good for gold. And -- we must not ignore F Veneroso's comment that the gold equilibrium price is $600/oz. Others will notice the shifting opinions of the pros, and begin to invest in gold as well! W Buffet has already started with Silver.

My guess is that only a US market crash will push down gold equities more than 10-20% below their current levels, and gold will never otherwise go below $280/oz. I could be wrong, but I don't think so. But I do agree with you and OldGold that gold will remain weak during the Iraq confrontation unless there is a major screwup. As long as the public perceives the US as having the current winning hand in the ME, gold will languish. IMHO.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 00:55 - ID#162148)
answer to JTF
JT: I said I would not doscuss the coming war again, and I shall not. Out of respect for your apparent honesty, I will answer your query about Mr. Saddam Hussein. I stated here recently that he was "A village thug who used the popularity of socialist political programs ( just as the democrat party has done here ) to gain control of his country, but compared to the despots around him in the area he was the soul of enlightenment." I stand by that. My statement that he had built more schools, hospitals, roads, etc., than all the other Arab tyrannies was based on personal observation on business trips to the area. I dont think any serious student of the Middle East would challenge that.

This "Palace" crap is just that. Hussein declared about a dozen sites off limits to the UN inspectors, calling them restricted "Presidential Sites." The controlled media here immediately dubbed them "Palaces", when, in reality, they are military installations, such as the headquarters of the Republican Guard. "Palaces" are what our client kleptocrats in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, etc, live in.

I, too, would not desire him as a neighbor. Neither would I want the bloody Sauds or Sabahs in my neighborhood.

In closing, there will be no war against Iran. A bully never attacks anyone who can strike him grievously in return. If a war against Iran were in the cards, the Dow would be falling and gold rising. See you next week. Gone.

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Sun Feb 15 1998 00:55 - ID#25867)
Replies to comments about the charge change; posting quality.
TO REITERATE: THE CHARGE: Will be ONLY for viewing messages using full text mode. There are no plans to charge any of the contributors who post.

To Jakko & Jack: I think my first line answers your question.

To FundaMETAList: A VB app to mine the info would be great. ZIP files are good idea but they still need to get from point A to point B. There may also be a bigger demand for them than the live data. We may test it out to see the net bandwidth savings.

WetGold & Trinovant: Buying PMs from Kitco instead of a monthly charge for "full text" access sounds great in theory. To administer such a program would be major headache. Itd be easier to offer special discounts on products to existing subscribers.

To 223 about the conversion thing. can be used as another source to confirm the info thats already been posted. And you thought we were just a gold quote/discussion group company.

Myrmidon and All: Good quality on-topic posts are the objectives of this site. Theres no shortage of them, but lately there seems to be a lot more chaff than wheat. I have no interest in having Kitco play host to a group who want to clog the airways with history , middle east politics, and white house gossip. If theres any threat to this group disintegrating, its not a pay-to-view policy, but the constant bombardment of off-topic posts that waste bandwidth and turn people away.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 00:56 - ID#243180)
I now know who ANOTHER is,,,,,,,
ANOTHER is someone close to Bart ( if not Bart himself ) . GUARANTEED!

BART: Are you, or do you know, the person who alias is ANOTHER ? Think hard,,,,, don't pull a Clinton on me...... It's OK-I enjoy the fun.

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Sun Feb 15 1998 00:56 - ID#25867)
This is a GOLD discussion group, not a political science seminar! Why the shift?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 00:58 - ID#339212)
@ tolerant1

Thanks for your 2 posts. Now the next question. Many in our armed forces ( those not brainwashed yet ) oppose to the war against Iraq ( myself included ) , yet they are forced to go there and fight.

Can such a purposless war succeed, or the US will find itself in its knees?

I know that the media will be broadcasting that we are attacking military installations, you and I, and many oters know very well that civilians will be slaughtered.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 01:04 - ID#227238)
2BR02B?: Excellent thread in that posted comment. Genius and achievement are differentiated by effort. IMO. Without toil, the high IQ is wasted.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 01:06 - ID#57232)
Oldman: Thanks for your response -- I do not have personal information about how much construction Saddam has done in Iraq relative to other Arab countries. There is no way I could learn this, except by being there, as you apparently have. Your comments about the 'palaces' makes sense -- they are simply off-limits military installations. That is probably Saddam's propaganda and not ours, as there is no reason for us to desrcribe a military installation as a 'palace'. But there is certainly a reason for Saddam to do so.

Good luck with the markets -- I have learned much from your posts. I hope you will continue to post, even after Bart charges us for full use, because we need contrarian posters who are equally confortable in bull or bear markets. I also hope RJ will stick around to counter the perpetual gold bug bulls.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 01:07 - ID#238422)
6pak, I know you love beer.

Anyway, thanks for your response, but
I really did not get it. What was your point?

All I meant that the article you produced
showing some strenth in Nazi ranks is of course
spooky, because it is well known that Nazis
are eager to use force and blood to fulfil their
goals. The question was: why did you put this
article on this site? If it was a warning to
other people to watch the danger, then I would like
to say that there is probably a certain existing opposition
against Nazis, including some armed individuals who are just
dreaming to get attacked by Nazis and use their right for
self defence in full strength. Needless to say, I will
be one of those individuals for sure. If you mean that
it is nice that ranks of Nazis are growing, then I say -
fine, if they behave and do not attack, they have right
for freedom of speech and etc., but if they attack -
they are all dead anyway. You see, history gave a lot
of people a very good lesson on how to handle this stuff,
and some people learned, but some not.

Take care.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 01:07 - ID#372344)
@IMF & Indonesia "Showdown" Camdessus says NO! to currency board...
Note, the Rupiah is to be pegged to the US$ or another currency???

(Sun Feb 15 1998 01:07 - ID#227238)
The Kitco Saddam and sodom channel.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 01:12 - ID#57232)
No offense taken
tolerant1: I am not offended, no apologies necessary. I am more amused than anything else by all the commotion, because the conclusions are the same, even if I am mistaken about Saddam's role as a benefactor. An 'unprovoked' attack on Saddam is just what he wants, because it may trigger a larger war with Israel, and Saddam will go down in history as a hero for standing up against the giant US.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 01:16 - ID#31868)
I thank you. Your mind has greater range than mine. I felt is a proper thing to speak while you were not here no matter that I am a whiter shade of pale.


(Sun Feb 15 1998 01:17 - ID#227238)
D.A.: Thanks for the answer on the call thingy. If I understand your comment correctly, the option entitles the call holder to a futures contract for the specified amount of gold which in turn must be exercised to take delivery. Therefore the call issuer is cleared when a futures contract is assigned to the call position. ..... Depending on market conditions, the call may not result in physical possession. Eh?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 01:19 - ID#31868)
Myrmidon Re: do I serve in the armed forces?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 01:25 - ID#57232)
Bart Kitner
I am all ears regarding what you think we should discuss on this site. My problem is that the Clinton Monicagate Scenario is reminiscent of the Nixon Watergate Scenario that triggered a major equities bear market and gold bull market. The apparent pending war in the ME may be nothing, but we also know what happened to gold/gold stocks before Desert Storm.

I agree that the non-gold stuff has gotten too extensive -- but I don't know how we draw the line between non-gold and relevant, and too much non-gold and relevant ( the latter being less relevant ) .

(Sun Feb 15 1998 01:27 - ID#339212)
@ tolerant1 and ALL

The reason why I engaged myself in this war discussion is:

The length and outcome of the Iraq / US war may impact the price of PMs.

If the US encouters significant damages, this may trigger a rally in PMs.

It is unfortunate that PMs are linked to any kind of destabilizing of power events, including wars which I despise.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 01:30 - ID#335190)
oris @ 1:07
Yes, I love beer. The point is German Youth & Canadian Youth being used, war creates JOBS JOBS JOBS. War came after a depression, mass unemployment RIGHT!

Nazi 1914 & 1939 and the USofA & British & German vested interests created the Wars, it solved unemployment RIGHT! The Youth were killed.
USofA vested interests in 1939 created HITLER. Here we go again. German Youth are unemployed, these young Germans want jobs, a future, a self worth, not to be killed. Are the elected officials giving the youth representation/hope maybe the Nazi party is again being supported by USofA & German vested interests eh !

This Canadian is but one ( 1 ) . I give a damn. If world war is the only resolve for gold being at historical lows, and a world war will give me the opportunity of a life time. I pass.

Thanks Take Care.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 01:37 - ID#22650)
Bart Kitner- I agree that it is a difficult thing to separate signat
significant world events from gold and other precious metals when theos events will likely impact the price and significance of pm's. When discussed in an intelligent fashion as on this site I think people can follow the connection to pm's quite easily. I am mainly a lurker but lurk on this site daily. My appreciation for your efforts.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 01:40 - ID#238422)

JTF, I think what Mr.Kitner means is quite simple.
It is O.K. to try to figure out influence of politics
on gold price. It is O.K. to suggest the outcome of
political event because it can affect gold price.

However, it makes no sense to dispute who is
responsible for this political event, because
just about everybody on this site, including those who
call themselfselves " Truth loving Jews", already knows
from the birth that this responsible party could be only
Jews and nobody else. Atmosphere at Kitco really gets seek..
and even my drinking recommendations do not look as bad
as Tzadeak thinks.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 01:43 - ID#153102)
World Gold Markets
As we know Comex is a wholly regulated marketplace where the rules can be bent and broken by local regulators. The most publicized example, of course, was the Hunt Bros. treatment.

The Bank of International Settlements, while not exactly a marketplace, is a transfer bank for gold. Its operations are protected from government interference by treaties and by Swiss Confederation law.

I am under an impression that the City of London has, since some time in the late middle ages, enjoyed certain immunities from the Crown and that these immunities enable outfits like the LBMA to function as an international maketplace even though located inside a sovereign nation.

I am totally unfamiliar with the status of the Hong Kong gold marketplace. Or the Paris, etc.

But, it appears LBMA is the only place on earth where gold can be traded at an international price and independently of the host nation's local law. And that if trading were discontinued there, BIS would be the only legally secure place by or through which country to country gold transfers could be done.

Any knowledge out there on this topic would be appreciated.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 01:51 - ID#393224)
Good article from the Australian Financial Review. Read what they say about gold price/production.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 01:55 - ID#57232)
What not to talk about on Kitco
oris: I agree with your comments. We do not need extensive historical discussions of what may have lead to the current events that may trigger a coming event that could affect gold/gold stocks. We should focus on what the actual events might be, and how they could affect the precious metals. That makes sense.

Extensive historical discussions should be specifically limited to precsious metals themselves, or momentous events known to cause major disruptions in precious metals prices.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 01:58 - ID#238422)
O.K., I got your point.

I've been in Germany 6 times, and indeed they got
a problem. I do not know how they gonna solve it
to make everybody happy. Can not comment on Canada,
but it seems Canada is in better situation, at least
for now.

Anyway, take care and drink only good German or Chech
beer, do not drink Budweiser, it sucks.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 02:02 - ID#339212)
@ Nick re: 01:51

The only thing I got out of this article is that gold will not drop below $280, but if it does, it will be only for a short time ( what double talk ) .

Nick, this is the problem with reporters and analysts, most of the time the say nothing new. But thanks for posting it.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 02:08 - ID#393224)
If that is the only thing you got out of my 01:51 -- then I suggest you read it again. I double my money every year by doing what that article says. Do you???

(Sun Feb 15 1998 02:09 - ID#31868)
My family owned a great deal of NY City, and we controlled the parking, yes, my friend I tell you this, the mafia, no, OH NO, my friend, and certainly not the government.

Any family member might walk anywhere in my Father's domain, truly was a pleasure.Your family and mine, truly there is no difference save the conversation.

Your children, might play, your loved ones, could and would take a stroll anywhere there.

Hamilton may have been correct.

I myself have never lost faith in the Republic. Never.

These clowns at the FED, BIS, IMF, etc., there time is done,

(Sun Feb 15 1998 02:09 - ID#206358)
GREY SUNDAY......looks like tough ahead on monday trading markets!
lastest news:Tensions heighten as Indonesian crisis

Tensions heighten as Indonesian crisis deepens by Jason Tedjasukmana

JAKARTA, Feb 15 ( AFP ) - Tensions heightened Sunday as Indonesia stared down the barrel
at the explosive charge of its
economic, social and political crisis.

With more than 20 towns and cities engulfed by rioting over soaring prices in the past two
weeks, security forces were on
heightened alert to deal with further unrest.

And the economic situation appeared set to worsen following news that the head of the
International Monetary Fund ( IMF )
had written a letter to Indonesia's President Suharto threatening to cut off rescue money unless
there was greater evidence
of reform.

In a private letter to the Indonesian president dated Wednesday, IMF President Michel
Camdessus reportedly threatened to
suspend a 43-billion-dollar international bailout of Indonesia's failing economy, the Washington
Post said.

The threat stemmed from Suharto's desire to press ahead with plans to radically change the
country's monetary system by
converting to a "currency board" under which the value of the rupiah would be rigidly fixed
against the dollar.

"In the current circumstances ... if a currency board proposal were adopted, we would not be
able to recommend to the IMF
board the continuation of the present program, because of the risks to the Indonesian
economy," Camdessus was quoted
as saying.

Meanwhile, the state Antara news agency said troops shot dead two men during a riot over
soaring prices on the eastern
island of Lombok.

Nine others were injured when hundreds took to the streets in the town of Praya Saturday
following rioting which earlier
claimed three lives on the central island of Java, it added.

"If the rioters try to hurt my men, I will not tolerate it," army Major General Mardiyanto was
quoted as saying.

Suharto has ordered the Indonesian military to put down any potential threat to stabilty as
dozens of cities are set on edge
by growing unemployment and a rising sense of desperation.

"If Suharto is not able to settle this once and for all, things could get worse," Rais Abin, a retired
three-star general and
former ambassador, told AFP.

Troops from the country's 475,000-strong military and police structure have been deployed
around the country to keep the
peace but have failed to arrive on time to prevent several outbreaks of violence in West Java
province, where scores of
shops owned by ethnic-Chinese were destroyed last week.

If the situation gets worse direct orders for the military to take action would come, Abin said.

"But orders sometimes come a bit late," he added in an attempt to explain the military's slow
response to angry mobs, who
freely looted one shop in West Java Saturday as soldiers and police looked on.

"Private debt is bringing down the country and there is the impression that conglomerates are
responsible for the current

The country's staggering private debt has officially been put at 73 billion dollars, much of it due
within the year, and fears of
bankruptcies and mass layoffs have led to an inreasingly fragile state of racial relations.

The majority of Indonesia's conglomerates are owned by the ethnic-Chinese minority, who
make up less than five percent of
the population but are estimated to control up to 70 percent of the private economy.

"There is a high degree of unhappiness about the economic situation, which is making
everybody jittery," Abin said.

The violence hitting Java, the country's most densely populated island of with more than 100
million people in an area the
size of California, has also led to unrest in the capital.

In a display of the increasingly lawlessness, several soldiers attacked a man in the budget tourist
district of Jalan Jaksa in
central Jakarta Saturday, witnesses said.

Local community leader Rudi ( Eds: one name ) was attacked by at least six troops armed with
knives and dragged from his
hiding place in an alley before being left on the road.

Passers-by rushed the man to a taxi for treatment in hospital but his condition was not

Ths soldiers, some wearing full military uniform and others in a mix of civilian and army clothes,
also attacked two
passers-by and two nearby vehicles, smashing a side window of one.

Meanwhile, the leader of a dissident group is said to have been missing for 11 days and his
supporters fear he has been

Siaga secretary general Pius Lustrilanang was last seen on February 4, when he visited a
relative at a Jakarta hospital.

"We don't think that he would disappear and make us worry about his safety," key group
member Ratna Sarumpaet told

Siaga -- the Indonesian Solidarity Team for Amien and Mega -- groups supporters of leading
opposition figures Megawati
Sukarnoputri and Amien Rais, who have blamed Suharto for the crisis and called on him to step
down after 32 years in

(Sun Feb 15 1998 02:12 - ID#206358)
ANY VACANCY?i'll home again!
More news today:Economic crisis forces expatriates out of
Indonesia in large numbers

Economic crisis forces expatriates out of Indonesia in large numbers

JAKARTA, Feb 15 ( AFP ) - Two thirds of expatriates working in Indonesia will have quit the
country by the end of February
because of the economic crisis, according to Labour Ministry statistics published Sunday.

Of the 48,417 expatriates employed in Indonesia at the end of December, fewer than 16,000
will remain by the beginning of
March, according to official figures published by the Jakarta Post.

More than 17,000 left in January and 15,000 more are expected to leave by the end of this

Most have left because of the economic situation or because of the instability of the rupiah and
their employers' inability to
pay them in US dollars, the newspaper reported.

All areas of industry have been affected by the exodus, but the financial sector and construction
were hardest hit, it sa

(Sun Feb 15 1998 02:14 - ID#57232)
Indonesian Currency Boards -- best post of 2/14!
ProVeritas: Just saw your 2/14 22:30 about Steve Hanke. If he has got it 'all together' as they say, Indonesia has enough reserves to set up a currency board. This will be hard for the IMF to support because an 'upstart' is promoting this, not the 'establishment'.

If Indonesia succeeds with the currency board, this may be the turning point in the US dollar that we all expect -- and SEAsia moves away from the US dollar as their currency. We all know that the move is most likely to occur in the part of the world hardest hit by the cuirrency crisis. I wonder, is Steve Hanke talking to any other SEAsian countries, and is that 'taking billions out of the economy' statement by Mark Mallock Brown, a World Bank vice president, in reference to Indonesia, or the world banking community?

We know the switch to a currency board -- or even more frightening -- a switch to a gold-backed currency is coming. The world banking community either doesn't understand this, or doesn't want to understand it. Sad, isn't it? At least AG understands this, as we learned in his October 97 speech to the CATO society.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 02:17 - ID#339212)
@ Nick

Nick, please forgive my ignorance, but I read the article again, and in reference to gold,

THE ARTICLE SAID WHAT YOU AND I ALREADY KNOW ( no much downward risk ) .

Regarding stock markets, I still ride the US bull protecting my capital with puts. 70% however is in gold stocks.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 02:19 - ID#393224)
G'day JIN.
I always enjoy your comments and articles. I hope that there is no social turmoil where you live and that you have a 'plan' in case of social disruption. Your comments on S.E. Asian gold trading are also greatly appreciated. Would like to hear more about gold trading where you live. Please don't identify where you live in your posts--I already know.
Cheers, Nick

(Sun Feb 15 1998 02:19 - ID#57232)
Goodnight !
Jin- Saw your posts. Please look at Proveritas 22:30 2/14 post about Steve Hanke and currency boards. If Steve Hanke is right, and the IMF does not get in the way, a currency board might work.

More importantly, I hope you and your family are safe. Hope all is well.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 02:22 - ID#153102)
Honored by the invitation.
Best wishes on having a Republic. If you become a convention delegate, I will provide my counsel gratis. But, then, I am no lawyer.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 02:29 - ID#339212)
@ tolerant1

FED, IMF, BIS are too powerful and control the world. If you doubt it, take a closer look at the IMF. It could cause starvation to 1 billion people in SE Asia.

I admire you for your ideology, however, the world depends on the policies of these 3 institutions ( and some others of course ) .

Your vote and mine can no longer change the course of events. These 3 institutions, can create booms, busts, inflations, depressions, wars, starvations. Unfortunately, any one of these affects PMs, and because I follow PMs, I have to follow the human misery as well.

I agree with 6pak: What good are profits from PMs when they are associated with human despair?

Anyhow, goodnight for now, is getting late.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 02:36 - ID#31868)
Quite amazed am I,
all of you are letters on a screen. Thoughts contained within, I will forgive none of you for not being brave in any instance.

You, each and every one of you. There is no greater wealth than/then honor. None.

Once you realize that a child smiles, there is no abyss. Once a child is fed and given a blanket, what is the worth of an adult.

The worth of an adult can never be measured or be weighed. The worth of an adult is the infinity of a child never having to say thank you.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 02:37 - ID#393224)
Sounds like a good investment policy, mate. Ride the Dow with the suckers, but I hope you are damned quick when the tables turn. Your puts will help but your shares may get left hanging on a 1000 down day ( or more ) . If you went on a holiday for 2 years and then looked at your PM shares--I believe you would get a nice surprise.I would not want to be trading futures long on Dow/S&P for the next year. The bubble is going to pop, but the question is when. 9000? 9500? 10000?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 02:42 - ID#31868)
Peace to you and yours. Happy blankets to the babies, namaste'

(Sun Feb 15 1998 02:46 - ID#228262)
(sam) kilograms and pounds

( sam ) I.D.#286234 2/14/98 21:25 kilograms and pounds are both units of mass and are convertible to each other: 1 kg = 2.20462 lbs

(Sun Feb 15 1998 02:47 - ID#339212)
@ Nick

Now my friend you said it right.
What we all need is a 2 year holiday and forget the daily PM changes.

How can one find the discipline to stop looking at PMs ( and Kitco ) every day? If I get rid of the computers, then the answer is simple.

By the way, for every 500 point up on the Dow, I follow a strict policy:
I sell 20% of the regular stock investments and put them into gold stocks. The puts protect me on the downside.

Goodnight for now.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 02:47 - ID#206358)
Personally,i think most of the citizens around INDONESIA don't know what is IMF or UFO! ? Off corse one of imf or currenY board will benefit in "LONGER TERM"!IN FUTURE!But now,the task in this moments,FOODS,LIVING SUPPORT,RACIALS PROBLEMS ,POWER CONTROL,these are the most things to settle before any GREAT IDEAS!!
Any very bad,day by long can we go..?
Read one book ,really interesting..translated from NATHAN P.Gardels,
off,still watching my deadly highflying METAL BREADS,GOOD IN LOOKING BUT I 'M HUNGRY......good investment huh ?!

(Sun Feb 15 1998 02:58 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Charts
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors

Long Term Chart shows Great Upside potential,
However, hourly chart looks weak.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 03:14 - ID#255151)

I got something bugging me now. At work a
jerk has appeared on the scene. This guy was
hired last month. In his first meeting, he
told the clerical staff, "I am a dictator."
He said, "I have fired whole departments
before." Now this gentleman, whom I have nicknamed Adolph, is stepping on some toes there. I am offended by such an attitude! Just to let you know, I happen to know that he has pissed off some the "big dogs". This is not OVER! I will keep Kitco posted on this matter. Go Gold!

(Sun Feb 15 1998 03:21 - ID#39845) Nick Jin and all.
Heavy duty news about to roll out again, as I cross myself.
News from China re yuan soon. Tokyo-Mitsubishi under presure
with Moodys downgrade. SEAsia will trade only in local currencies.
Fan-Hitting at full speed ahead this week.
Friday 13 February, 1998 ( 8:51pm AEDT )

International ratings agency, Moody's Investors Service, has
warned of possible credit rating downgrades for the Bank of
Tokyo-Mitsubishi Limited, the world's biggest bank.

In what observers describe as a further sign of Japan's
deepening banking crisis, Moody's also warned that ratings
could be lowered for the Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank, the
country's second largest.

Moody's says both Banks are under pressure because of
Southeast Asia's financial turmoil and Japan's stagnant

(Sun Feb 15 1998 03:28 - ID#39845)
IMF loks more like a 2stroke Trevant than a Mercedes.
Friday 13 February, 1998 ( 12:53pm AEDT )

In the United States, the chairman of the Senate Foreign
Relations committee has described the International
Monetary Fund as a "worn-out jalopy", reflecting "a bygone

Senator Jesse Helms told the committee that the financial
crisis in Asia is focusing attention on the need for reform of
the I-M-F.

He said the I-M-F refuses to allow Congressional auditors to
examine its accounts, prescribes measures that conflict with
free market ideals and bails out negligent bankers and
corrupt or incompetent governments.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 03:32 - ID#39845)
Question to all.
What impact will local trade conducted in local ( SEA ) currencies
have on the greenback.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 04:19 - ID#248180)
@ Kitco - Wow What a Chat Site
Just got back and caught up on the last day. Excellent stuff.
Bart - I said it before, let's form World Government with this rag time team of posters on this site. We can't do any worse than the New World Order; I suggest a lot better.

Mozel: lawyer/liar: I was not sure, but perception is a strong thing. When one thinks long and hard about the legal fraternity and the law, I usuallly conclude that the greatest legal minds are not lawyers or legal practioners.

ANOTHER - Once again supports the currency burning and a return to a fixed standard. When currency burns - forms or perceptions of stability are grasped. Gold is an old friend. We still like: producers of oil, natural gas, heating oils, Precious metals and mining stocks.

Stop looking for short term gains - go long on all of the above especially Precious Metals, then sit back and relax.

Oris: When faced with the problem of too many pickles and no vodka, can one drink scotch with the pickles? Or will our ancestors "preydkei" be disturbed by my lack of forsight and in that I went and am short on vodka? Bad investment strategy & forsight being short on vodka and long on pickles.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 04:50 - ID#153102)
Go Gold
I'm posting this before the curtain comes down. People keep confusing what is going on with capitalism, oblivious of the fact that without gold and silver coin as money, there are no capitalists, just corporatists in the service of national socialist governments. But, there is more golden than just gold, so read on.

A "Valentine's Day Card" of 1998: Love Thy Country!


Globalization's Ugly Side: Destroying Human Spirit and Cultures

PHOENIX - Who can forget the hauntingly beautiful "Don't cry for me
Argentina" melody from "Evita?" It was a song of a passionate love for
one's country. The patriotic flame burned fiercely in Eva ( Duarte ) Peron's
heart despite turbulent times and grave illness which snuffed out her life
at age 33. It was also a story of an "American Dream" the Argentinean way
- a poor girl from the pampas countryside makes good and rises to become
Argentina's First Lady at the age of 27.

But "Evita" is also a love story which only a jolted lover, or an exiled
patriot, could have written. It is a tale about things spiritual which can
never be replaced by matters material...

Don't cry for me Argentina
The truth is I never left you
All through my wild days
My mad existence
I kept my promise
Don't keep your distance

And as for fortune, and as for fame
I never invited them in
Though it seemed to the world they were all I desired

They are illusions
They are not the solutions they promised to be
The answer was here all the time
I love you and hope you love me

Don't cry for me Argentina...

It is a supreme irony that the latest deliverer of the
mind-and-heart-over-matter lyrics, written by Tim Rice reinforced by Andrew
Lloyd Webber's music, should be none other than Hollywood's "Material Girl"
- Madonna. That's like Bill Clinton preaching celibacy. Yet, despite the
distractions which sometimes occur when real life interferes with art, the
larger-than-life story of "Evita" can still break every patriot's heart.
Especially on Valentine's Day.

[For those not intimately familiar with Argentina's history, Eva ( "Evita" )
was born in 1919. She died in 1952 of cancer. Her husband, Juan Pern,
for whom she campaigned tirelessly before marrying him, was elected
president in 1946. He was deposed by a military coup in 1955. After 18
years of exile, Pern was again elected president of Argentina in 1973.
But he died 10 months later. So it goes...]

That "Evita" was about the future and not just the past became evident in
the 1990s. Carlos Saul Menem was elected president of Argentina in 1989.
It was the year the Main Street started paying for the West Side Gang's
victory in the Cold War over their Kremlin East Side rivals. Ever since,
Menem has ruled since like a czar, issuing over 300 decrees, according to a
Jan-Feb 1998 FOREIGN AFFAIRS article about the pitfalls of globalization
without corresponding constitutional democracy and social liberalization.

During the last nine years, Menem's globalization of the Argentine economy
- read privatization and sale of former state-owned assets to foreign
interests - has caused millions of Argentineans to become exiles in their
own country. They were disenfranchised by their own elite in the name
"free trade" and "progress." Just as were the millions of Russians, Poles,
Hungarians, Koreans, Thais... later on.

In the province of Jujuy, for example, some 42% are unemployed or doing
menial work, according Bishop Marcelo Palentini. "They used to ask for
raises; now they ask for jobs," he told the New York Times which printed a
surprisingly candid condemnation of the New World Order elite's mantra -
the "free trade" a.k.a. "globalization" - in a front page February 6
article, "Argentina Grapples With Downside of Globalization."

"Menem thinks that by putting our country at the service of the
International Monetary Fund, he brought us into the First World," Carlos
Santillan said, a union leader in Jujuy province. "But workers have lost in
a few years rights they fought for over a century. We're a colony here. All
that is missing is to have Clinton come here and plant the American flag."

Clinton won't have to disgrace our flag any more that he has already done,
because Wall Street did it for him. The "megabankers" have already seen to
it that the Almighty Dollar is the currency of choice in Argentina, fully
interchangeable with the local pesos. Any time you see that anywhere in
the world, you know that the New World Order has claimed yet another colony
in the name of the "Princes of the 20th Century," the multinational

The New York Times article explained how the multinationals' profits drove
many of Argentina's small entrepreneurs out of business. And how some of
the American globalist NWO elite, as epitomized by Ted Turner, George
Soros, Sylvester Stallone, Arnold Schwarzeneger and others, have moved in
and taken over the lands where ones gauchos freely roamed.

"There are more fences going up in Patagonia as the internationally wealthy
install themselves on newly acquired estates," the New York Times reporter,
Roger Cohen, wrote from Buenos Aires. "I used to go and camp or fish but
now I hear that Ted Turner is here, Rambo there, the Terminator somewhere
else. And I say, no, this is not my Argentina," Orlando Mendes, a pro
Argentinian, told the New York Times.

Meanwhile, YPF, the former state-owned Argentinian oil company that used to
employ 5,000 people, now has only 500 employees. Yet, YPF made a $900
million profit in 1996. "Whoopee-do" for its foreign scavenger-investors!
A sad outcome for the Argentineans.

Mario Acosta, a YPF manager, explained that when the old "semisocialist"
system was dismantled, everyone who was not a professional was laid off.
"Before," he said, "uneducated people had a certain basic security. But
that's finished in the modern world."

Nevertheless, deceitful chameleons that the globalists are, at the Wal-Mart
in Buenos Aires, an Argentine flag flutters in the store there is a sign
reading, "Proudly in Argentina." Families stroll down the wide, bright
aisles, past displays of Paul Newman's salad dressing.

"What is clear is that it is changing the Argentine way of life: families
buy their bicycles here, sometimes using dollars; the corner bicycle store
is no more," the New York Times reported.

But, of course, Wal-Mart is not impervious to the risks of "divided
societies," a New York Times term for Brazil, Argentina's bigger neighbor
which has until recently mostly resisted the globalization pressures. In
the last few months, five Wal-Mart stores in Brazil have been attacked and
robbed by assailants operating in large groups armed with assault rifles.

Meanwhile, Wal-Mart is bigger than 161 countries including Poland, Israel
and Greece. Mitsubishi is larger than Indonesia, according to Maude Barlow,
a Canadian activist who does not want to see her country's culture wiped
out by the likes of IBM or General Motors. "General Motors is bigger than
Denmark," she railed in a Jan. 22 speech at the University of Toronto.
"The Top 200, with a combined revenue of $7.1 trillion, have almost twice
the economic clout of the poorest four-fifths of humanity, whose combined
income is only $3.9 trillion.

And, if we may interject with our own parallel, IBM had spent more than $18
billion between 1995 and 1997 on stock buybacks - almost five Albania's
GDPs, unconscionably transferring that much money from the Main Street
taxpayers to the Wall Street pockets - WITHOUT CREATING A SINGLE JOB OR A

But, in spite of their enormous wealth and clout, the Top 200
multinationals, the "Princes of the 20th Century," as we had dubbed them in
our reports, are the net job destroyers, according to Ms. Barlow. All
together, they employ less than one third of one per cent of the world's
And yet, according to the thus far secret two-year negotiations of the 29
OECD nations in Paris over the "MAI Treaty," a New World Order elite's
attempted home run against all nations of the world, this treaty would
basically do away with the idea of the national sovereignty, including our
own, in America.

And so, if there is a song to be sung by the patriots the world over on
this Valentine's Day 1998, it should be the song of Evita: "Don't cry for
me Argentina."

Or America... Or Canada.... Or Russia... Or Germany... Or France... Or
Iraq... Or Iran... Or Serbia... Or India... Or China... Or Japan...

So maybe the love song of the Valentine's Day 1998 should be titled - "Vive
la difference!" - as the French would say?

May we all love our different countries, our different cultures, our
different religions, our different laguagues, our different ethos - to the
detriment and ultimate defeat of the Wall Street's worshipers of the Golden
Calf - the godless money-driven materialistic New World Order elite.

Happy Valentine's Day 1998!

( regrettably, like Christmas, another "Hallmark Holiday" in the West ) .

Which is why this writer hopes that you've hugged your honey, your child,
your parent, your dog today... rather than giving them another "Valentine's
Day" card which only puts your money into the pockets of your enemies.

Argentina's "St. Evita" would have smiled if you had hugged them...

By Bob Djurdjevic

(Sun Feb 15 1998 05:36 - ID#398105)
The Preacher and ANOTHER.................

There appear to be two key historical issue affecting OIL and GOLD.

In simplistic terms, OIL is controlled by Arab interests principally Saudi Arabia. All Arabs/Muslims at this time are not as one. If OIL bids for GOLD directly it is by virtue of the US National debt - the US is technically broke ?!

The US National Debt is now US$ 5.47 trillion, going up at US$2 to 5 billion per day. This has accelerated since December 1997.

If Arab interests were to bid oil for gold TODAY, they effectively would control not only oil but also gold.

In 1886, Anglo and American interests backed by Jewish capital developed the goldfields in South Africa. GOLD since then has been controlled by British/American/Jewish interests, as is still the case today - the setting of the gold price daily in London, the LBMA, major gold mining companies. The Arabs, today, are consumers/buyers of gold, they do not "control" this market.

Therefore, should Arabs bid for gold - there is a problem. They would then control both oil and gold. I would strongly suggest that this would not be allowed to happen - but how can it be stopped ?

The alternative is to rapidly establish a GOLD standard as the basis for international trade, but for this to happen GOLD has to compete with OIL.

How can this be resolved - the "West" must control oil ?!

(Sun Feb 15 1998 05:50 - ID#398105)
The Preacher and ANOTHER.................

There appear to be two key historical issue affecting OIL and GOLD.

In simplistic terms, OIL is controlled by Arab interests principally Saudi Arabia. All Arabs/Muslims at this time are not as one. If OIL bids for GOLD directly it is by virtue of the US National debt - the US is technically broke ?!

The US National Debt is now US$ 5.47 trillion, going up at US$2 to 5 billion per day. This has accelerated since December 1997.

If Arab interests were to bid oil for gold TODAY, they effectively would control not only oil but also gold.

In 1886, Anglo and American interests backed by Jewish capital developed the goldfields in South Africa. GOLD since then has been controlled by British/American/Jewish interests, as is still the case today - the setting of the gold price daily in London, the LBMA, major gold mining companies. The Arabs, today, are consumers/buyers of gold, they do not "control" this market.

Therefore, should Arabs bid for gold - there is a problem. They would then control both oil and gold. I would strongly suggest that this would not be allowed to happen - but how can it be stopped ?

The alternative is to rapidly establish a GOLD standard as the basis for international trade, but for this to happen GOLD has to compete with OIL.

How can this be resolved - the "West" must control oil ?!

(Sun Feb 15 1998 05:59 - ID#284255)
Art Bell and an old Kitco posting.
Who needs gold with this around the corner. ( g )

No one talks of this now there is fresh allegations.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 06:31 - ID#284255)
Ed Dames comments^3735@.ee72836>^3735@.ee72836
Caller: I'm in Carl Point, New York. Good morning, Art, Ed. My question is....I've just become kind of well-heeled through an inheritance and it's in blue chip stock and I've been seriously considering.....way before....about not leaving my money in the stock market and getting it out and pretty much taking the rest of the year off. Really enjoying myself, doing the things I've been wanting to do the last few years. That's basically it.

Bell: Oh boy, that's good advice for anybody. Ed, if you were to advise somebody like that who's got money in stocks....based on what you know and what you know is coming.....what would you say to him.

Dames: Put it in physical gold.

Bell: Gold.

Dames: Not stocks but the physical gold.

Bell: Based on your prediction of economic collapse coming in....what.....98?

Dames: This year.
This guy is a far out read.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 06:54 - ID#316193)
For Anyone Who Missed Nick@C's Post at 01:51...
Goldman Sachs is predicting U.S. corporate profits to slide
after the current run-up in money supply works through the
system. ( I wish we had the assumptions used in this forecast. )
Anyway, here are the after-tax, after inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments, profit percentage numbers:

1997 Qtr. 4 10.4%
1998 " 1 7.5%
1998 " 2 4.1%
1998 " 3 1.5%
1998 " 4 1.8%

If this forecast comes anywhere close to being correct, the
U.S. stockmarket mania will soon be over. Speculators with short
positions in gold will be covering in the biggest ever hurry.

Here's the URL posted by Nick..

(Sun Feb 15 1998 07:21 - ID#26793)
I think it is too soon to try and determine the impact of Asean trade in local currencies on the greenback. We need to know which countries are in the deal and which currency is selected. However, if they were to choose gold the impact would be significant.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 07:21 - ID#251129)
Haggis you called

sorry i was out whats up?????

(Sun Feb 15 1998 07:29 - ID#243180)
"Countdown to Chaos: featured on golde-eagle,,,,,
I reiterate my claim that this Y2K thing ( although it is real ) is very much hyped for the benefit of those wanting to obtain enormous profits on "doom-n-gloom".

I'd be willing to wager anyone a couple-a-eagles BUT how could I possibly create terms that are empirically accurate and not questionable. If anyone has any ideas on making measureable results I am willing to listen.

On the personal side,,,,,, Set the clock on your PC ( as I have in 1997 ) and work with it. Keep all financial statements ( if U don't already do so ) starting now. Lastly, don't listen to this crap and only look into SPECIFIC TANGIBLE FINDINGs.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 07:30 - ID#258129)
Bart, I made a simple exercise today - retrieved all 6 sections of yesterdays discussion - it took not much time ( I have ISDN 2 x 64 K line and it was not the busiest hour ) - and joined them in one text file. Resulting text file is 460 Kb long - it was a busy day! Then I zipped this file, resulting zip file is only 166 Kb long, or about 2,8 times smaller. Maybe this can be the right way to reduce download time and make everybody happy with the bandwidth. IMO, lurkers are the majority, one can feel that after NY bourses are closed - not much new posts, but everything slows down. If full screen mode will be available for current time segment only, and the rest will be available only in zip file format, it will reduce traffic at least 2 - 3 times. If this is the objective, of course. If objective is different - make the site better, or whatever - than it is a different story, but I doubt, that you will collect much enough to pay programmers salary by charging C$9,90 for full-text mode.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 07:48 - ID#93232)
"It's a good thing".......
After analyzing Another's first post of last evening, I have come to the conclusion that she is Martha Stewart...who I love dearly. Wow, we have big celebrities here on Kitco. Cool....

(Sun Feb 15 1998 07:59 - ID#284255)
Iraq info
Strange Things in the News

(Sun Feb 15 1998 08:05 - ID#57115)
Cash cost of Gold below $100/oz.
Can anybody give me an update on the continous leaching process that has been under development? If this process is constructed and effective in mass production, gold will become a basic commodity and we can all watch the price fall together, Think this could be one reason CBs are selling AU?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 08:52 - ID#26793)
More riots, deaths, ethnic hatred as Indonesian wages sink to 50c per day

(Sun Feb 15 1998 08:55 - ID#398105)
JAG............stick to watching TV...........

JAG ( Cash cost of Gold below $100/oz. )

Processing costs are indeed important, and essentially depend on milling capacity and ore type.

The KEY ISSUE with respect to open pit mining is, however, the waste to ore ratio and the scheduling of waste removal. This can form between 40 and 80 % of the total variable cost of a given operation.

I would be most interested if you could provide me with the names of operations with total costs less than US$100 per ounce.

i would suggest that the BIS book value is the key issue on setting a gold price ?!

(Sun Feb 15 1998 08:56 - ID#426220)

JAG ( Cash cost of Gold below $100/oz. )

Since the early 1900s there have ALWAYS been rumored the "discovery" of a revolutionary gold extraction process which will reduce the price of the noble metal. Frankly, it is the perennial scam to try to force gold prices down, so that the perpetrators of the rumor can dupe the innocent public into dumping their gold into the laps of the scammers.

I firmly believe that the CFTC commodities regulatory body should employ the same severe methods to PROSECUTE the originators of this fraudulent practice.

Central Bankers use the scam to keep gold prices under prerssure. Unscrupulous gold mine operators use it to sell their stock, stating that their new-technology will convert worthless mines into bonanzas.

The words that leap to mind everytime I see mention of a process which will DRASTICALLY reduce the cost of gold mining to pittance are: FRAUD, RIP-OFF, GYP, SWINDLE, DUPE etc etc.

In fact it might even be a good contra-indicator really signaling that some important group is currently accumulating a large position in the yellow with the intent of running it up to astronomical levels.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 08:58 - ID#26793)
Asian problems impact India , devaluation worries, funds flee etc (Major Story

(Sun Feb 15 1998 09:07 - ID#26793)
China exports slump on Asian turmoil. Continues vow not to devalue.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 09:23 - ID#316193)
Jardine Fleming Publishes Bearish Forecast For Asia

(Sun Feb 15 1998 09:32 - ID#316193)
Korea Herald - Cash Strapped Citizens Try to Sell Body Organs

(Sun Feb 15 1998 09:37 - ID#316193)
Let's Try The Korean URL One More Time

(Sun Feb 15 1998 10:16 - ID#26793)
Chart of Tobin's Q Ratio looks like Dow/Gold Chart

(Sun Feb 15 1998 10:22 - ID#26793)
FYI: Definition of Tobin's Q
This article uses Tobin's q, the ratio of the market value of a firm to the replacement
value of its physical assets, to measure monopoly power and to examine the relationship between
market structure and profitability. Tobin's q is a better measure of monopoly profits than indices of
single-period profitability because it measures long-run monopoly power. In addition, it is subject
to less measurement error and it contains an adjustment for risk. The relationship between q and
long-run monopoly power is established. Provided that all inputs are supplied competitively, q
should be highly sensitive to even small amounts of monopoly power.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 10:27 - ID#348286)
@JAG : Magic AU recovery
If you or anyone here believes in this black magic, then I have the numbers for the psychic hotline for you, where they will amazingly be able
to tell you everything about your life and how to succeed etc.
IPN and IPMC have been around for years, and the only thing they have succeeded in is to dupe more money from investors in search of a "magic" formula.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 10:31 - ID#238295)
Middle East
BART: Unfortunately events in the Middle East are going to have a big impact on PM prices; hence my discussion of these issues. If US wins an easy victory with no longer-term Arab response, this is BEARISH. BUT IF US HAS TROUBLE OR ARABS MOUNT AN EFFECTIVE LONGER-TERM CHALLENGE TO US IN RESPONSE TO IRAQ SLAUGHTER, THAT WILL BE VERY BULLISH.

My take still is that the short-term impact on PM prices will be bearish, but the longer-term implications will be very positive.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 10:43 - ID#348286)
@BREAKING: The DRUDGE REPORT has learned that investigators are in possession of pager records



Hours before he gave his deposition in the Paula Jones case, Monica Lewinsky tried in vain to page President Clinton, hoping to warn him that Linda Tripp was cooperating with investigators and telling them everything she knew about the Lewinsky/Clinton affair.

"Saturday morning, the morning after Lewinsky was first questioned by Starr's team, Lewinsky repeatedly paged President Clinton's office," a source with intimate knowledge of the situation tells the DRUDGE REPORT.

"[Investigators] believe that she was trying to warn him that he would be questioned about their affair." Clinton, however, who arrived at his attorney's office at 10:30 am to give his deposition in the Paula Jones case, did not receive Lewinsky's urgent pages it has been learned.

"She was too late, she didn't make it," said an insider.

Clinton was completely unaware of the Tripp/Starr sting before he went under oath in the Jones session. The DRUDGE REPORT has learned that investigators are in possession of pager records -- alpha-numeric pager records that have been recreated.

Elsewhere, soon to be published reports will explore e-mail messages that have been seized from Lewinsky's Pentagon computer. The FBI is using a state of the art data retrieval program on Lewinsky's machine which allows for complete recovery of everything on the computer's hard drive: including all documents, even those deleted. The process has been described as time consuming, but highly effective.


MATT DRUDGE broke the Lewdinsky story.
Check out the other breakthroughs Matt Drudge has made:

Heavy Hitter
(Sun Feb 15 1998 10:53 - ID#403159)
ANOTHER" claims the U.S. debt was changed to short term
from long term due to the coming crisis of possible higher interest
rates. Makes no sense to me whatsoever. Should be the other way
He also states gold only has to be revalued once in ones
lifetime. I could go on and tell the same story for just about
any other asset ( real estate, stocks etc. ) . Everything will
eventually be revalued once in ones lifetime. So whats
the point. He knows no more about it than anyone
else here. Gold will go up one day, but when. As time
goes on everything will change in value. That's life.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 10:58 - ID#348286)
@Old Gold - IRAQ
I agree with your points. The other possibility is that international pressure will force the US to hold off on attacking Iraq.
I beleive that this is the scenario that the US fears most - hence all the international lobbying.
The US is just salivating at the opportunity to release it's latest technological destructive wonders at IRAQ, and show the world
who is boss politically, militarily and technologically.

What markets fear most is continuing uncertainty, which a stalemate would insure, and IMO this will provide the most bullish environment for Gold to advance.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 11:00 - ID#348127)

can yall reccomend any outside of Russia ?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 11:12 - ID#348127)
US will launch initial bombing campaign between Feb 24-28. This will be after Olympics and durring New Moon phase. That gives us roughly 10 days to prepare for what seems to me to be an almost certain counterstrike by Iraq or one of its supporters. Although one should'nt be thinking of profits should this unfold, this also means a huge spike in PM's.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 11:13 - ID#31868)
Stillwater Mining - SWC on the NASDAQ

(Sun Feb 15 1998 11:14 - ID#238295)
oil and gold
ANOTHER: I have one big problem with your oil-gold theory. This idea implicitly assumes the arab oil states are in fact independent enities. But the fact of the matter is that regimes such as Saudi Arabia are nothing but US puppets, maintained in power by the threat of US intervention if the ruling regime is threatened. These regimes are not in a position to demand anything from the US. They just follow orders.

Oil is being kept down because that is what the US wants.The price of gold has nothing to do with it. Oil will remain cheap until global demand outstrips global supply no matter what gold does in the interim.

Of course a crisis that pushes oil up probably will hike gold also as global inflationary pressures intensify. But if gold surges because of currency traumas or other non-petroleum related causes, oil prices could still remain low as long as there is enough global capacity to meet demand.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 11:20 - ID#341214)
WetGold: Easiest Money I'll Ever Make
WetGold: Assuming we can come to mutually agreeable terms ( and that might be difficult because no one can predict what is going to happen ) I'll be glad to take you up on your bet regarding Y2K but I want 2 Maple Leafs. Let's see what kind of suggestions pop up and we can set some terms. Problem is I'm very busy with Y2K stuff ( at my REGULAR non-hyped fees, I might add ) and can't monitor the Kitco forum all the time. If those making suggestions will use WetGold, fundaMETAList or EASY MONEY in their suggestions I'll be able to find those quickly. Thanks!

(Sun Feb 15 1998 11:22 - ID#238295)
Moregold: You are absolutely correct that US is itching to hit Iraq, but its hand could still be stayed by a lack of support internationally, or fears of credible counterstroke. And yes -- an environment of mounting uncertainty would be bullish for the yellow.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 11:31 - ID#348127)
@ tolerant1

Thanks for the swc - I will ccheck them out.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 11:33 - ID#31868)
add another dirtbag to the list
Leon Pannetta ( spelling does not count ) what a lying dirtbag.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 11:34 - ID#31868)
most welcome

(Sun Feb 15 1998 11:35 - ID#372344)
@ JAG,Haggis,vronsky ,Don't forget "their"real(*;*) threat of mining Gold from Asteroids in space...

(Sun Feb 15 1998 11:42 - ID#93232)
All this friggin' war talk has run off all us hippies...we're war-talk- objectors..5-F...pusses. Make money...not war! Make money...not war! What's it good for? Absoulutely nuttin'! Speakin' of nuttin'...
ANOTHER, how much gold does a family of four need? Please take in consideration that we like the night life... ( Ray Price/Willie Nelson ) .
Thanking you in arrears.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 11:42 - ID#31868)
Old Gold
The tent of Saud has comitted many crimes against those who were just and good.

There is a time for justice, the ME is a cauldron and the USA as a 200 some odd year old child had better get out of the way.

Nietzche - was right - Might makes right.

And trust me, all the technology on the planet will not stop this.

They have seen magic before, but to live a life without liberty is as well understood in the sands as it is on the prairie.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 11:47 - ID#333131)
US position in the world is at stake in Iraq
The consequences of an essentially unilateral strike on Iraq will be devastating for the US position in the world. It will expose the US weakness in a chaotic world, militarily, diplomatically and eventually economically. How many of you in your lives have witnessed the downfall of a chairman or leader of an organisation or family for that manner, who forces through an action by asserting his/her priveleged postion to just do it, when in fact the action is unsuported by others either because of the leader's real power to reward his friends and punish his enemies has diminished, or otherwise has not obtained willing consent? The Moslem world will punish those regimes who have allied themselves with us. Europe already wishes to unite against us economically. Asia has every reason to unite economically or at least become more fearful of China than of anything we might bring to bear as leverage. The US lack of the kind of strength which flows from vision, integrity, wise leadership will be exposed to all by such a unilateral attack on a suffering people in the name of punishment of their leader.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 11:48 - ID#31868)
Yo fret breath. EB and TED await an answer. Is there a problem with having the Camdesuss thing dipped in gold and plated for the exhibit?

I need to know if the golden sword of justice will see this as a good thing or as an insult to honor and respect everywhere.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 11:55 - ID#26669)
Phillips is bearish on American gold and PM funds again.

Back to his home page then link down to his Dow predictions he's mostly bullish. IMHO

I've not posted a link to his site in some months. I have no relation to him, fiduciary or otherwise. I look at his Artificial Intelligence prognoses from time to time, but I don't use them as an investment tool. I'm not a short term trader but rather a long term investor, but I read them for entertainment. IMHO

(Sun Feb 15 1998 11:58 - ID#341214)
WetGold: Y2K
WetGold: I hope this doesn't sound unfair but I would compare your advice ( "only look into SPECIFIC TANGIBLE FINDINGs" ) with someone in 1929 that was saying leave your money in the stock market. Seems they didn't have STF ( Specific Tangible Findings ) until the day AFTER the market crashed. I liken my advice to someone saying you better take a close look at this and make some preparations. If the preparations prove needless then that's great, let's all have a big laugh. If something bad does come down the pike and you have made some preparations then you are part of the solution, not part of the problem. My general feeling is that through the first half of 2000 all hell will probably break loose in many parts of the US ( the rest of the world is another story ) . During the second half of 2000 we will already be recovering from many of the problems as people develop work arounds. Economic-wise, I think there will be a hang over from this that lasts for years.

Just one VERY TANGIBLE example: Have you been reading about the expert testimony on the FAA before Congress the last few weeks? I'd surely love to hear you tell us how this problem can be solved so that there is a computerized air traffic system after Dec 31, 1999. Are you willing to risk your life in the air when you know the air traffic controllers are using pencil and paper to track all the planes in the sky. Wake up, sir! This is a very real problem.

Speaking of tangibles, one good way to prepare for this is to buy silver ( junk silver, pre-1965 silver coins ) and gold. BBML.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 11:58 - ID#243180)
I suggest we let Bart hold the Maples until the ending. I'm looking for trangible predictions ( %bank failures, %Stcok portfolio unrecoverable, etc ) of REAL disasters that are being promoted by the Y2K "gloom & dommers". If we can come to terms: "let's get it on"...

(Sun Feb 15 1998 12:00 - ID#93232)
@T#1...Dichotomous Delusions of Splendor and Rapture!
The Golden Sword of Justice is a little dull and limp today...not its normal blue-steel self. Evidently. Valentine's is one of it's favorite days...and it quietly ventured out last night...and found a deliciously warm supple sheath. Ohmy! It could care less today about irrelevants like Camdooossus... I'll check back with it later tonight. Get Gold!
I don't care if I ever hear from Ted of EB again...they're bitches.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 12:02 - ID#238422)
It's really sad to hear that you are short on vodka
and long of pickles. Scotch will not work, nashi predkei
said. Try to find somebody who is long on vodka and
short on pickles and make a deal...

(Sun Feb 15 1998 12:07 - ID#31868)
Hmmmmm....I would listen to FundaMETAList....FWIW.......IMHO and most respectfully submitted.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 12:10 - ID#228128)
commitments of traders data
Does anyone know where one might find the Commitments of Traders data in a downloadable database format. I have the URL for a table of the data but wonder if anyone provides or markets the data in database form that can be used or modified for use in a charting packages such as Supercharts.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 12:15 - ID#31868)
The sealion brushes up against the kelp and asks, "who whizzed in your wheaties keeper of the sword?"

(Sun Feb 15 1998 12:21 - ID#93232)
@T#1.....How bizarre.....
Everyone knows sealions and kelp don't talk that much anymore...I'm going to humbly ask once more....are you east or west of Chicago?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 12:25 - ID#57232)
Monicagate Heating Up -- telephone tape recordings of Clinton
A friend of Monica Lewinsky testifies in front of grand jury that she heard tape recordings of BC voice on Monica's phone message recording device.

Now, most of the xxxgate news on our local paper is anti-Clinton, or neutral. Pro-Clinton stuff is now in the minority.

The storm clouds are rising -- I wonder how much longer the market bull will last, with the press now catching up on about 5 years worth of suppressed news.

Does anyone know how long it took for markets to react to Watergate, after the press feeding frenzy began? I don't know if those markets were in a rally at that time or not -- those were the pre 1980 inflation years, but as I recall the market was not in a solid bear.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 12:29 - ID#243180)
fundaMETAList,,, Let;s keep our dialog professional and above board...
I do respect the work that you are performing and thank you for it. That does not mean that you are ( in any way ) providing a service that is not necessary,,,, many professions do every day. I must point out that most people who I have been in contact with are working on legitimate problems with Y2K are very emotional when it comes to questioning this problem. Any profession would do the same. For further clarification let me state again that I am not questioning THE PROBLEM ( as I've stated many posts over the past several months ) ,,, I am questioning the HYPE that is following this problem,,,, plain-n-simple. This is not an attack on hard working individuals ( like you ) that feel a sense of urgency to resolve these issues promtly,,, If anything, my confidence in you folks is shown by my feeling somewhat secure in 2000.

FAA: This government agency has had offers for several years to look into their dilema and they contracted little UNTIL NOW,,, when they place congress in a position to allocate more funding for the FAA to purchase new state-of-the-art equipment. Do you really believe that the FAA has not been aware of this and are looking for alternative sources of funding and/or helping out politically the contractors, relatives, and business associates that will help them fix this problem ???

I state again,,, What is the % of total bank failures, disolvent financial accounts, and deaths that will be directly linked and attributed to this problem. I am wiling to wait until 2001 when the "smoke" clears. I am not challenging you to defend your work ONLY to foresee that the HYPE is causing contractors to increase their revenue stream in this "once-in-a-lifetime" bonanza.

PLEASE,,, do not take this personal ,,, because it isn't. With all the talk on this forum regarding "snake-oil-salesman", Ron Brown's death, Camdessuss, Trilats/Bilders, political manipuation of gold/oil, etc you will grant me the position I take that something is going on IN ADDITION to the real problem of Y2K.

Thanx for reading this lengthy post...

(Sun Feb 15 1998 12:32 - ID#341234)
CNN/Quicken Financial Quiz
I just took the CNN/Quicken quiz on Money Management Tips and Tools. It asks about 30 questions and then tells you how to handle your finances. The advise it gives is LAME! For example, none of the questions said anything about precious metals. It did ask how much risk you were willing to accept. I chose maximum. Here is one piece of advise it gave:

In general, be cautious about precious metals. They are highly volatile, barely keep up with inflation and are expensive to insure and store. If you want to invest in them, consider doing so through a mutual fund.

What is this bias you see everywhere against precious metals? Do people realize that the stock market is by no means a sure thing? Even if the Y2K bug is not severe, what if people start selling large amounts of mutual fund holdings toward the end of 1999 just in case? Precious metals may start to look like a great store of value. Just ask the SE Asians.

If you want to try their bogus quiz, here is the address:

(Sun Feb 15 1998 12:35 - ID#243180)
fundaMETAList,,, thanx for the PM advice but as I state to ANOTHER,,,
I'm ready for the tribulation,,,, and await the coming of the New Paradigm,,,,,

(Sun Feb 15 1998 12:36 - ID#31868)
I shall address the first, certainly without a postmark. What everyone knows is not of matter to the Aether. Sealions do speak with Kelp, their conversations can only be heard and discerned by those who listen carefully.

In as much as to the second, hmmmmmmmmm, if it is blues, I am from Chicago, while everyone else is trying to rid themselves of beatles I am clapping a ton, as to my whereabouts, at present, to the east of the harmonica.

In the Great Commonwealth of New York, final resting place of Thomas Paine, and home in perpetuity of Alexander Hamilton, known also as Publius in the newspapers.

Oh, regards to James Madison and John Jay.


(Sun Feb 15 1998 12:44 - ID#31868)
WetGold your 12:29
I have read it several times. It is my belief that as an individual, you have tried as best you can to explain your thinking in a manner which is to be commended. In the immortal words of a Kitcoite, BRABO!

(Sun Feb 15 1998 12:44 - ID#372344)
@ Gold...US,Iraq....US$.....
Some posters believe that if the US does not strike Iraq, that would
be bearish for Gold, and even if they limit strikes that would be bearish
for Gold....I obviously disagree.....As I have said numerous times now
the US has been cornered in a NO WIN situation, and not at all
conincidence, but rather a well thought out and calculated plan
by Iraq, Russia and China to "gang" up on US as the sole world
superpower, not by directly attacking the US military, but rather
by using innocent Iraqi women and children as pawns. If the US
Bombs, then the world will certainly condem it, and if they don't Bomb
now, after all this sabre ratling, the US would appear weak and
inpotent , so either way, the stage has indeed been set for the
start of the inevitable decline of prestige and refuge in the US$
and assets confirming the dethroning of the US as sole world
superpower and the start of a new definition of the US role in the world
which IMHV will take a long and very hard fought campaign. I look
for Gold to begin to sniff out this MAJOR change, and begin to
move up by the end of February, if not sooner....
BTW the Arab feast of Hajj orthe annual pilgramage to Mecca in
Saudi Arabia starts next month,and so I doubt very much that the US would Bomb during said period.....Does anyone remember a few years
ago when the Saudis had to shoot thousands of Iranian pilgrams who rioted proptesting vs Saudis in Mecca, could this be why the
Saudis will NOT allow US planes to take off from their soil......
stay tuned......

(Sun Feb 15 1998 12:46 - ID#57232)
You got there first! Matt Drudge scoops again!
MoreGold: Now the FBI has Monica's paging records and her DOD computer. All her e-mails, even the erased ones are theirs. I hope this is the new, improved version of the FBI, not the one that botched the Vince Foster death.

It won't be long before someone posts a voice recording of BC talking to Monica on the Web.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 12:47 - ID#93232)
@T#1 fact, you are a good bluesman....
the chorus of "Givin' Up the Blues" ( by me ) slide....

Yea, I'm givin' up the blues
And it's mighty hard to doooze
Yea,I'm a givin' up the blues...
I'll think I'll give some to yous.
( break )
and so forth.....let' go to Chitown and give 'em the blues...

(Sun Feb 15 1998 13:04 - ID#26793)
@Heavy Hitter
Another is correct. The U.S. debt strategy has been to rollover long term debt into short term instruments. The stated reason was to capture the lower short term rates then in effect, thus saving on interest expense. In the recent past the yield curve has started to invert, now being almost flat with 90 day and 30 year rates about 1% apart. If the curve fully inverts, as it has in the past, the strategy will fail and could cost us a lot more than we saved.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 13:15 - ID#17155)
US, Russia, Iraq
I found it interesting that even Israel has much more sane view of the current crisis and issues involved than US does. VERY logical and informative editorial in the Jerusalem Post:

(Sun Feb 15 1998 13:20 - ID#57232)
Must do Sunday chores! Logging off
Donald: Looks like India is on the brink. That will reduce silver demand somewhat if India implodes, but D.A. thinks the silver bull market will survive anyway. Warren Buffett also thinks so, or he would not be in Silver, even if it represents 2% of his assets. I think we all need to see where the other 98% of WB's assets are, because he is too much of a value investor to have it all in the general equity markets.

And, Chinese denials of devaluation are increasing in frequency. Anything about South America?

I get the feeling that the next wave of the currency tsunami is about to hit India, ?Russia, ?South America -- enough to stall the US market rally well before it reaches DOW 10,000. I will be watching the US dollar very closely for any signs of weakness, as this may be a good early warning that the US equity markets are in trouble.

I currently have 1/2 of my cash in goldstocks, defense, and oil. I think they will do well as long as the US markets hang together. I am not capable of investing in this current general equity bull market -- no matter how good it looks or does. I guess I'm too much of a gold bug ( contrarian ) at heart.

It will take alot to bring down our equities market, but the forces that could do it are gathering. XXXgate may take months, but trouble in the Mideast ( though unlikely ) could be alot sooner.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 13:20 - ID#25588)
FundaMETAList - My current view of silver is about the same. If you read my post ( 2/12, 23:37 ) I got long silver on Fri. at 7.00. Still looking for the 7.70 area as a top. In my view a correction to the 6.50 area would be the A wave of a wave 2 correction. April gold isn't going much higher then 305-306. The SnP will be over 1100 in the next few weeks. From now until June any sharp breaks ( 100 pts or more ) in the Dow should be bought. Front - In the conversion of Win 95 I lost your e mail address please send it.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 13:20 - ID#286262)

Date: Sun Feb 15 1998 11:14
OLD GOLD ( oil and gold ) ID#238295:

Old Gold, you said:
"Oil is being kept down because that is what the US wants.The price of gold has nothing to do with it. Oil will remain cheap until global demand outstrips global supply no matter what gold does in the interim."

I think the tide is turning as the US is celebrating its hegemonic peak of power. There are several swords ready to fall on us. The Saudi regime is increasingly imperilled if they do not tow an anti-US line. There may possibly be a coup building there and that is why we are there, having manufactured an Iraqi crisis. Syria is much stronger, we gave them all of the best equipment ( tanks ) taken from the Iraqis. They in reality have the most potent bio weapons, not Iraq.
Turkey obviously is going for annexing Iraq under our no-fly umbrella down to and including the oil-producing Kirkuk region.
Iran is probably lusting for conrol of the Shia area of southern Iraq. Maybe we can help by destroying the Bathist strongholds around Baghdad. Perhaps this partion is already in the works and we are there to jump into the fray or forstall it? Maybe next year we will be selling weapons to Iraq again. This is a very dangerous and convoluted area. We should be coming home. What good is radioactive oil anyway?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 13:24 - ID#243180)
Post more often,,, you have good ideas and analysis...

(Sun Feb 15 1998 13:25 - ID#31868)
final comment on the blues, Bart, I promise, at least for now
STUIDO_R - It's kind of like [William Harris' 1928] 'Bull Frog Blues' or [Tommy Johnson's 1928] 'Big Road Blues' brought into a framework that could be danced to, in current rythm patterns that people were familiar with, but which still were written hiply.

Who am I?

Ah hell, this ain't fair.STUDIO_R forgive me.

Taj Mahal - gum flapinn about Jellyroll

Just lit a candle in memory of the late, great Stephane Grappelli, these tracks with David Grisman.

For those of you that read this post, go buy the album, I assure you that it will be chewing gum for your ears.

Go to any self respecting music store and ask for the man with the violin, and they will point you to Stephane.


(Sun Feb 15 1998 13:26 - ID#434137)
Maybe radioactive oil will release more energy than standard oil?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 13:28 - ID#57232)
Logging off
Spanky- Like your reasoning about the ME. I agree that Iraq is nearly toothless. The problem is -- how to neutralize the other forces while US forces are in the area. My guess is that all we will really do is pound a few 'palaces'. Saddam backs down after a 'show' of force somewhat, and we leave. Then the real trouble begins.

Your comment about making Iraq an ally to counter Iran is interesting. After all of the US screwups in Iraq, I doubt we have few loyal supporters left.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 13:30 - ID#20748)
Would anyone with information on tele coference please post.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 13:31 - ID#286262)

Hegemonic decline in store for US either way. I totally agree. The Haj presents another angle too, since that is usually an event that fires up anti-US rhetoric from the fundamentalist clergy. Bring the troops home from PG, Korea, Bosnia. Time to hunker in the bunker, defend our own soil. Let them get it on and redraw territorial boundaries created by European imperialism. No allies left except House of Windsor. Interesting since they took Kuwait from Iraq.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 13:32 - ID#57232)
Perhaps it is self-cracking!
G-Nutz: Lets home not -- the political fallout from a nuclear exchange is not worth it -- even clean nuclear weapons.

That's why Saddam has a 'clean' nerve gas ( for Israel,I guess ) -- one does not automatically escalate to WMD, or the consequences would be incalculable.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 13:39 - ID#252127)

If India's people take heed to the rise that occured in precious metals prices relative to the devalued currencies of those nations on the Western Pacific Rim; they will be prepared for the currency speculators and at worst, remain above water.
You can be sure that the currency speculators will attack.

Heavy Hitter
(Sun Feb 15 1998 13:41 - ID#403159)
Yes, saves us money for now. But if I understand
correctly if interest rates rise significantly it will
cost us dearly to have the US debt financed in
short term debt instruments. So is the US in a
good position or not if interest rates rise up.
I would think not. I guess I might have misunderstood
Another. So he's againest US policy and thinks it's
an accident waiting to happen. Straighten me out
Donald. Thanks.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 13:42 - ID#411259)
..... Sea Lions & Kelp .....

Have noticed some dissension as to the communication abilities of sea lions and kelp.

During a recent trip to Cabo San Lucas ( at the tip of the Baja Peninsula ) I had the good fortune to swim with the sea lions. They were quite friendly and playful, darting here and there, heading strait toward me and turning away in a flash a couple feet from my nose. I got some great pictures with an underwater camera, but these will not answer the question, "do sea lions speak with kelp?", for this, you must trust my word. Not only do they speak, but the relationship is quite cordial. Kelp did piss off the sea lions when it started to die off, but with recent re-growth, animal and plant alike have mended their fences.

As for the subject of conversation, its mostly about fish and not very interesting to higher forms of vertebrates. I did overhear a young mother sea lion ask to kelp to watch her pup so she could loll around on that rock over there in the sun awhile. The kelp said, "OK", Which is pretty much all the kelp ever says, being a very agreeable form of plant life and little accustomed to dissent. This is quite apart from the sea lions who are, with rare exception, a gregarious bunch, quick with a joke or sly turn of a phrase, all with a twinkle in the eye and a friendly flipper slap on the back. That these clever asides are primarily about fish, does not diminish there cleverness one bit.

I personally did not speak with the sea lions or the kelp and I hope this was not taken for rudeness on my part, but my mouth was full of snorkel and I don't have all that much to say about fish anyway. I hope this puts to rest this whole controversy and we may once again get back on topic, which is , GOLD!!!!!!!

That whole GOLD bit at the end was just to make sure this entire post was not "off subject".

(Sun Feb 15 1998 13:50 - ID#93232)
@RJ...Tank you..I know I feel much better.....
Family has a place in Palmilla..between San Lucas and San Jose de Cabo...good to hear the feud has ended...we have much to learn from the higher forms. Go Goldbugs! ( same reason ) .

(Sun Feb 15 1998 13:54 - ID#372344)
@ Spanky....US$ ,ME Oil.....
While I would certainly agree that US "isolationism" is growing in
popularity amongst everyday Americans, what with the high human
and $ costs, alot people don't realize that the US is spending in
ME alone some $50 Billion per year to maintain a presence , ( yah Oil is real cheap now when one doesn't ibclude this cost )
and of course not mention the high costs of troops everywhere else,
and for what? as I pointed out in numerous posts now, the USA
does NOT need ME Oil, they get all their Oil from the Americas.
It is my view that the reason isolationism will be fiercly resisted by
the "Powers" among many is the critical role the US military plays
for the US$ as the Sole reserve world currency, and that once the
troops begin coming home voluntarily or forced,and the US turns
inward, as you suggest, and as I believe likely ,that will be the
end of the US$ as sole world reserve currency, and more importantly
the start of a major war for control, and price denomination of ME Oil.
The Times They Are Changing......

(Sun Feb 15 1998 13:55 - ID#238422)
Good article, 100% correct.

Guess, there is some hope for gold...

(Sun Feb 15 1998 14:01 - ID#41229)
Where can one find the information where U.S. imports oil from, and amounts?

If what you say is true, what is gained from the U.S. presence in the middle east? I'm having a hard time beleiving it is because of the Jewish elite of this coountry as some would suggest.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 14:11 - ID#31868)
Hmmmmmm, if you have the spirit, go visit a friend beyond compare, truly an individual whose very being represents that which is respect, honor and the truth that is America in it's finast form...

The individual I speak of is he who took the photograph of the sealion and the kelp. Hmmmmmmmm, I no longer wonder having met imagination without peer.

Anywho, ( not a typo ) one of seven chosen to investigate the shroud of Turin.

Go to Santa Barbara, seek out Brooks Institute of Photography, once inside the building, turn left, first door, ask for Pat, a more kind soul never existed, ask to speak with Ernie.

All you have to say is "he" suggested a visit.

No more, no less.


It is done.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 14:13 - ID#252127)
Glad that

Vronsky, Haggis and MoreReGold quickly explained to JAG that most ( if not all ) claims of mining gold cheaply are hoaxes.
As a kid I use to read Ripley's "Believe it Or Not"
Ripleys said that every cubic mile of sea water had $1 million bucks of gold in it ( say about $8.6 Million today ) .
Just so some bought financial writer or say Arnold and Smith decide to take up on this, I say...............
Can you imagine treating enough sea water for the entire world population to use 200 gallons of it in a day for whatever tickled their fancy and it only cost $8.6 million.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 14:14 - ID#372344)
@ ME Oil....
The USA produces Oil, can produce alot more if needed, imports Oil
and natural gas mostly from Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela, this
has been regularly in the News for the last few years now, but I'm sure
our resident News hound The Donald could point you to a specific url.
As far as the reason for the US being in the ME, if you read my post, you will note that the price of Oil is based world wide in US$, and this is
one important contributing factor to the US$'s world sole reserve
currecy status, price World Oil in ANOTHER currency....well I think
you get the picture......

(Sun Feb 15 1998 14:29 - ID#372344)
@ refer....US Oil Imports....
Here is the US Gov figures for Oil Imports historically, you will
note that Arab Opec imports amount to about 15% of total imports
and I believe mostly from Kuwait .....that small percantage could easily
be imported from elsewhere....

(Sun Feb 15 1998 14:36 - ID#41229)
Just read your post which states that the U.S. can not afford the oil/dollar relationship to be unpegged.

This is the same thought that I have, once oil would sell in a different currency, this would mean confidence in U.S. abilities to honor their debts no longer exists. Therefore U.S. must control the flow of oil.

The thing that isn't clear to me, is that the current situation with Irag seems to fly in the face of the above stated goals. It seems that agression against SH would impeed the flow, and important allies lost. The question I next would ask, what dangers are there of too cheap of oil? Can this effect any major powerbases revenues?

OLd Gold- You state that U.S. needs the continued flow of cheep oil! I would suggest to you that it maybe cheap in $ but is becoming more expensive in Rubbles.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 14:40 - ID#233181)
Canyon Resources
Last week there were some comments regarding this Co. Does anyone have any thoughts on the Briggs project, and the "probable" outcome for the McDonald situation? Bought in last week on Briggs and price to book. Kendall went well for reputation...several awards. How much of a factor are the Clark Fork Coalition people? Any comments appreciated.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 14:45 - ID#31868)
You speak of metal and money, I speak of honor and liberty, your metal is a thing and shall ever be so.

Worth is simply this, an agreement among honorable soverigns. No more, no less.

If you are honorable your words need not be weighted in something dug from the ground.

Things are like bananas for a monkee briefly awakened.

Honor and liberty, on this planet I believe they call that mental fidelity.

TO ALL: what is your word worth?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 14:49 - ID#225127)
I like your words and Wild Turkey too.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 14:49 - ID#41229)
Thanks for the Url, and you are correct I didn't see the second half of your post,sorry. I'm currently upgrading my pc anf forced to use my lap top, trying to get use to the differences.

You have same outlook as Haggis and I on the dollar/oil relationship.

The question I have, stated in earlier post. I'm wondering if ME events are on the behalf of u.s. oil companies. I'm not sure what the average cost of barrel is for exxon or texico, but they have to be loosing billions when oil approaches $15 mark. Just a THOUGHT.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 14:50 - ID#222231)
Go to the search engine YAHOO, click on stocks and enter, enter cau for qoute and enter, go down to quote and in lower right hand side click on msg.
You will probably have to register first but it's free. Once you get in you will find all sorts of messages from others regarding Canyon Resources. Good Luck!

(Sun Feb 15 1998 14:51 - ID#228262)
OLD GOLD & ANOTHER (oil & gold)

OLD GOLD's 2/15,11:14 Post I have the same problem that OLD GOLD has with ANOTHER's conclusions. Depresing the POG so that oil's price can be depressed accelerates the industrialization of emerging nations, especially CHINA. I have seen analysis that show CHINA wil be able to absorb over 50% of ME oil production by early in the next century. Add to this other increases in consumption like the USA and elsewhere. ANOTHER's position seems based on an assumption that ME oil reserves are of an infinite capacity so that its price can be kept at a low sustainable level, thus keeping POG at a fixed value, but higher than gold's cost of production. The ME is already pumping at 95% capacity in order to suppress the POG, can the ME afford to squander its most valuable resource in order to control the POG indefinetly? I think not! Maybe this price manipulation has worked in the past for many yesrs, but I think we are on the cusp of rapid profound changes in the status quo,resulting in the price of oil and PM's increasing steadily into the next century. Factor in a possible ME conflagration ,now in the making. and collapsing economies in Asia about to spread and this will happen much sooner with greater effect. Engineer

(Sun Feb 15 1998 14:52 - ID#26793)
@NJ: Repost of TVX Conference Call-Seems to be public invited

(Sun Feb 15 1998 14:59 - ID#27251)
Does anyone have an opinion on TVX Gold they would want to share.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 15:04 - ID#26793)
@Heavy Hitter
Anyone who uses short term debt to finance long term obligations is in trouble if short term interest rates rise. It seems to me that Another is saying that the strategy was tied to oil. I don't see that. Maybe he will explain further.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 15:05 - ID#31868)
Do not buy it. Make sure you have physical and buy a whole bunch of METLF or IPJ. METLF is a sure thing, IPJ, hmmmmmmmm, in my mind, a sure thing.

Your money and time is better spent elsewhere rather than on TVX -


(Sun Feb 15 1998 15:09 - ID#333131)
For those interested
GLOBEX on the CME will open tonight at its regular time ( 5:30 CST ) till 10:30A Mon.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 15:14 - ID#26793)
The reason I think that piece on India is a major story is because it clearly shows how everything is connected to everything. The Asian problem is not over. It is just begining and it is a world crisis. We are in a deflationary death spiral. I read about Indonesia and the press calls it inflationary citing rising prices for food etc. Wages in Indonesia at 50c per day are not inflationary, things bought on credit are dropping in price in Indonesia and elsewhere because no one qualifies for credit. This ball has just started to roll. Look at cars in India, down 20% on the Korean built model. As the man says; who can compete with that?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 15:16 - ID#41229)
If I understood ANOTHER correctly, it is the the people purchasing the oil who would benifit from a low POG. It does not matter to the Arabs what POG is because it is pegged to a paper asset the $. We still value gold to what it is worth in dollars, Arabs value dollars only what is worth in gold.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 15:17 - ID#31868)
DEFLATION never before seen or recorded in history. Quite right.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 15:19 - ID#31868)
Gold has never been revalued, everthing else has been in relation to it.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 15:20 - ID#238295)
geopolitical realities
Tzadeak: Your 12:44 post showed a very shrewd understanding of emerging geopolitical realites. The US ondeed is now between a rock and a hard place place in the Middle East -- damned if they do and damned if they don't. But from a very short-term perspective I do think gold will drop modestly to perhaps $290 if the bombs start falling. But once the long-term consequences of such a naked act of aggression in the world's most volatile region sinks in, it will up, up, and away!

(Sun Feb 15 1998 15:20 - ID#7568)

Oil is not priced in any one currency any more than any other commodity. If oil were 'priced' in dollars one would see oil prices being flat in dollar terms for long periods of time and then increasing in little jumps as producers set higher prices. If one looks at the price of oil in dollars there is nothing that is remotely close to a stabile price. It flies all over the map, sometimes is in backwardation and sometimes contango. In short it is a freely traded market with the price set at the margin by buyers and sellers.

A few things to note about the oil market in general. First, production is on the order of 75 million barrels a day. OPEC accounts for something on the order of a third of this. Half of OPEC is not in the Middle East.

The idea that ME oil producers are going to demand payment in gold and that is going to change the world is silly. First of all, if these producers wanted gold, they could just go out and buy the stuff. Last I looked it was around $300 / ounce and was available in size. Second, the economies of the ME who are supposed to be on the verge of hoarding gold are not in any position to hoard anything. They are all in need of large investments in infrastructure and modernization. The per capita GDP of the nations in question is way below that of industrialized nations. In short they are not fat cats looking for a store of value but rather poor nations that need to invest greatly in their future. Buying up loads of gold for storage in a vault or under a pyramid is not going to do them a whole lot of good.

The rational for the US involvement in the ME is not really so difficult to define or understand. Basically it is the same reason that the US has troops stationed all over the world. In short, it is in the best interests of the US for the world to be at peace. In this instance the leaders of the US believe that the best way in which to maintain the peace is not to allow a psychotic tyrant access to weapons of mass destruction. You may not agree with the policy on whatever grounds, but there is very little to offer in opposition to the obvious point of the policy.

I am continually fascinated by the apparent need that so many in this forum seem to have for the clandestine, the conspiratorial and the secret. Sometimes I think others are just having fun, and that if you met them in person they would just break out laughing. Unfortunately I think this is just my optomistic side showing through.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 15:23 - ID#233181)
Re: Pete & CAU
Thanks for the response. Checked it out...looks like a bunch of shorts talking to themselves. Reminds me of the Iomega boards during its bear attack. Thanks anyway.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 15:27 - ID#20748)
Many thanks. My broker had given me the number but it is impossible to call in. Busy signal. Guess too many callers.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 15:30 - ID#238295)
oil for gold
DA: We are on opposite sides of the fence re: US Middle East policy which has long backed every tyrant in the region from the Shah on down that was willing to do our bidding. The West had no trouble with SH using poison gas against Iran as long as he was taking orders from Washington. But when he stopped taking orders he became another "Hitler" overnight.

But you are absolutely on target with regard to the silly idea that Middle East nations are suddenly going to demand payment in gold and this will change the world. The gulf oil regimes are US puppets pure and simple and are not in a position to demand anything from anyone without US approval.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 15:31 - ID#23398)

(Sun Feb 15 1998 15:31 - ID#228128)
Was that really you?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 15:31 - ID#31868)
Stop it, next thing you know you will try and tell us that Spidrmans.s name is not Peter Parker. Good grief Charlie Brown!?!?!?!?!?!?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 15:38 - ID#39375)
What would happen to Gold if SH drops H-BOMB on NEW YORK ???????????? IS IT POSSIBLE ?????????

(Sun Feb 15 1998 15:39 - ID#7568)

I woke up feeling I was still me, and the events of the day have done nothing to change that opinion. Did I say something weird?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 15:49 - ID#7568)
Old Gold:

I do not disagree with the point that we would support any manner of despot anywhere if said despot advanced policies in our perceived interest. The fundamental basis for these policies is still to maintain the status quo in the world. Yes, we were happy to support Iraq in its war againsts Iran. Everything I have read says this is because if they were killing each other then neither would become a serious strategic threat.

I am not trying to argue the morality of our policies in the ME, I am just trying to opine what is their objective. Keeping weapons of mass destuction out of SH's hands is fully in keeping with supporting Iraq against Iran. Both have the same strategic objective.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 15:57 - ID#316193)
If We Have War, Here's An Opinion Of What Will Happen

(Sun Feb 15 1998 15:59 - ID#7568)

Even I know where to draw the line.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 16:03 - ID#26793)
@Tolerant1: Tribalism; "All were tried in public and then burned alive"

(Sun Feb 15 1998 16:05 - ID#228128)
No you didn't say anything out of character. You were talking about penchants for conspiracy. I was joking.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 16:09 - ID#7568)

Me old brain is slowin down, but I'm smilin now.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 16:10 - ID#39375)
World War
Thank you Leland,Is it POSSIBLE???????

(Sun Feb 15 1998 16:15 - ID#238295)
Middle East
Heidelberg: Let's not talk about one in a billion possibilities. If SH is able somehow to sink or seriously damage a US carrier or perhaps even a destroyer -- that alone probably would send gold up at least $50 in a matter of seconds.

DA: The current order in the Mideast is so blatantly unjust that the longer it is preserved, the bigger the inevitable explosion. Just as the longer the gold price is artifically suppressed, the bigger the rise when it finally gets going. Most in the region see Uncle Sam as the bad guy, not SH.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 16:24 - ID#26793)
The way Warren Buffett exits from silver will be the test of his genius

(Sun Feb 15 1998 16:28 - ID#316193)

The purpose of my posting was only to make those on this
forum "think". None of us can answer your question.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 16:28 - ID#7568)
Old Gold:

Just because I like to have discussions, imagine for a moment that you could reorder the ME. With the stroke of a pen you would be allowed to redraw any territorial borders, cause any one person or group of persons to give up wealth, get wealth, live, die, etc. In short, for a bit, you could play the role of the big G.

When the rest of us woke up on the day following your rearrangement, what exactly would we see? In the spirit of the exercise, please try and leave words like justice, morality, etc. out of the description. Just a laundry list of who would be where, who would rule who, who would have what, who would lose what, would live, and who would die.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 16:29 - ID#288140)
@ Engineer
Gravity acting on a 1 kilogram MASS of gold generates APPROXIMATELY 2.20462 lb. of weight or FORCE on earth. Mass and force are not the same, just ask Sir Isaac Newton, or look up his Second Law of Motion in any basic physics or engineering textbook. Gravity does not generate the same amount of force everywhere on earth. Your same 1 kilogram of gold will weigh a different amount in Anchorage and Quito. Conversely if you purchase 2.20462 lb. of gold in Anchorage you will take home a different amount of gold than if you bought 2.20462 lb. of gold in Quito. However, as Oris notes, most goldbugs purchase gold in bars and dont really care about the difference. BTW units of mass are GRAMS in the metric system and are convertible to SLUGS in the English or engineering system. We are not supposed to talk about this kind of stuff here but I could not in good conscience let your statement slip by unchallenged. :- )

(Sun Feb 15 1998 16:36 - ID#28585)
@ALL...Anybody know any S.African platinum companies.... their ADR's on any of the American stock exchanges??

(Sun Feb 15 1998 16:37 - ID#31868)
Guess Lord of the Flies was not a book after all.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 16:39 - ID#227290)
Speculare & CAU

CAU will produce about 75,000 ounces per year from Briggs once all the kinks are worked out and the mine has a life of about 12 years, with more exploration potential.
Birggs had trouble with one of the crushers. Recently, a new crusher was installed and I hear that things are going much better.

MacDonald has taken a long time to get permitted and it's not through yet. But several concrete steps have been completed along the way that involve the approval of government agencies.

Kennecott is investing in the area believing that mining will eventually take place there.

I think the Phelps Dodge decision to leave was to move resources into place to put two large copper mines into production, just as PD said.

CAU sells at a lower market cap/ounce of proven & probable than any company that reports to the SEC. Much lower.

When/if MacDonald gets permitted, the shares will absolutely soar.

The Preacher

(Sun Feb 15 1998 16:42 - ID#26793)
Deflation is the biggest risk to the Goldilocks economy

(Sun Feb 15 1998 16:48 - ID#31868)
as a soverign individual
you most certainly have the God, and birth given right to demand more from those whom you put in a position of leadership.

In the Republic there are documents, the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. Read these and then, demand more from your leaders, no more than you would expect and demand from your neighbor.

BBL I am cooking for seventeen and it must be delicious.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 16:52 - ID#252150)
Bill Clinton as War Hero
When Billy Clinton was a callow young man
He was asked by Uncle Sam to go to Viet Nam
By using his connections and other nefarious means
He managed to stay home and pursue his various dreams
Now that Bill is President of the mighty U.S. of A.
He'd love to go to war and thousands of Iraqis slay
From the safety of the Pentagon in Washington D.C.
He'll be in on the attack with barely controlled glee
And if he stays out of the way the Generals will all agree
He's the mightiest Commander-in-Chief the world did ever see

(Sun Feb 15 1998 16:53 - ID#335190)
Leland @ 15:57
Leland: What is your take on this guy Sanders. I am expecially interested in his position regarding this quote from his web site. Is there merit to this statement. **Gold - Ted Spread** I would appreciate yours and others thoughts on this material. Yes, Investment is considered.

Thanks Take Care.

The Hedge of All Hedges
by Franklin Sanders

TED Versus Gold

What about the TED and gold? Right now, the TED is bottoming and beginning a minor upside probe, as if suspicious noses were snuffing something on the wind. This confirms and strengthens the current upside potential in gold, and downside threat in the toppy U.S. dollar.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 16:58 - ID#339320)

Before jumping the gun so quickly with the statement of gold NOT necessarrily being bid in oil, I think it would be VERY productive to see an Oil/Gold price chart, dating back pre 1971 ( the date gold oficially became tied to oil ) .

(Sun Feb 15 1998 17:04 - ID#26793)
Asian deflation hits Ontario farmers

(Sun Feb 15 1998 17:05 - ID#26669)
Dear Ann Slanders,
On the Kitco forum I keep reading about the risks of DEflation, the DEflation in southeast asia, et cetera. But when I look up the news from these deflated areas I'm struck with the sameness of the descriptions. The news talks of INflation, price INcreases, riots, unrest and instability but not a single word about DEflation.

Now I know we're just one big happy dysfunctional family in this chubby little OneWorld balloon but something just doesn't seem right. And when I go to the grocery store it looks INflated to me. And if the 'balloon goes up' then it would have to be INflated too, c'est pas?

The DEflationists talk of massive lossea in PM prices, but then how does that jive with the INcreased demand for cheaper little cars, each with its own catalytic converter to save the greenhouse gas for Mr. Algore? And how could that dear little Monica lady have done all those naughty things unless even the Prezz was INflated?

Sign me,

Confused In Middle America

(Sun Feb 15 1998 17:14 - ID#187218)
D.A. @15:20
"... Buying up loads of gold for storage in a vault or under a pyramid is not going to do them a whole lot of good..."

As I stated several times over the last week ... this hoarding is against Islam ....

I agree with your premise.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 17:17 - ID#26793)
The best way to avoid that confusion is to think of prices in ounces of gold. Everything in Indonesia costs fewer of ounces of gold than a year ago. Try not to think in terms of local paper currencies.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 17:25 - ID#316193)
6pak re. your 16:53
I agree, we should use search engines and check out Franklin
Sanders. He sounds interesting. I'll report back on anything
I can find. Thanks also for your help.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 17:28 - ID#280222)
electronic trading via internet
ALL: How many of you guys trade electronicly? What systems do you use? Is Zapfutures good? Is electronic trading, using the internet to transmit orders, safe? Advantages...disadvantages? Any info appreciated.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 17:31 - ID#7568)
gold vs oil

I just took the time to print out a chart gc / cl for the last 30 years. My database for crude prices only goes back to 1977.

In short there is not a hell of a lot to say about the chart except that it is nowhere near stabile. The gc/cl ratio seems to bottom around the 9 -10 level ( 300 gold ~ 30 oil ) . The other side of the coin is much less well defined. The peak of the ratio was in early 1986 with gold around 32 times that of oil.

Perhaps the most interesting feature of the chart is the speed at which the relationship changes. This has been the byproduct of the gulf war and also the collapse in oil in 85-86.

If the 9-10 times ratio is a good bottom, then if oil hits $30 or gold goes to $150 then it would look like a good trade to short oil and buy gold. Right now we are somewhere near the middle of the extremes in this ratio over the last 30 years.

Charles Keeling
(Sun Feb 15 1998 17:34 - ID#344225)

I use E-TRADE. It haas lots to offer. It allooqws
you to track several clases of stocks. Try it,
I thiink you will like it.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 17:34 - ID#187218)
POG due to Iraqi crisis ???
I'm confused about this whole mess. How does the POG change with military action in ME. The world is against the action,,, oil is not linked to gold as earlier posts suggest,,, what's the analysis for the gold change due to BCs short-sightedness ???

Does anyone have a graph that shows the POG during conflict ? I like to see this chart reflect official prices, as well as, market prices ( knowing that market prices are unavailable during most of this period,,, for the US at least ) .


(Sun Feb 15 1998 17:35 - ID#426220)

Per -- Richard Maybury, July 1996 EWR

War Prices

Investments WAR PRICE CL*

Oil, lt. swt. crude, NY $100 9

Swiss franc
$2.00 to $2.50
$2000 to $5000
$50 to $100
$2000 to $5000
$500 to $1000
T-bond int. rates
TED Spread, 9/97
500 pts. or more
Dow 30 Indus. index
8000, then 2500
Dow defense index
Up at least 400%
CRB commodity index
US real estate
Up then down

*My present confidence level for this forecast.
10 = totally confident; 1 = skeptical

(Sun Feb 15 1998 17:36 - ID#187218)
D.A. ,,, looks like we were thinking along same lines,,,,
I posted mine when I saw yours....,,, anyway to check out your charts ??

(Sun Feb 15 1998 17:38 - ID#93232)
I really thought your 15:20 was good stuff.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 17:40 - ID#333131)
Donald, Big risk?
I don't see it as either "flations". It is sudden disruptive change. I think AG is acutely aware of this. Gradualism is his theme song. The sudden revaluations of either paper or commodities or real estate or gold is anathema to people's well being and damages rational economic decision making for long periods afterward. I am with you in thinking that paper assets are beyond the point where any adjustment can be make gradually. Large amounts of wealth will simply vanish. So the only question is ( for me ) what will be the reaction of the keepers of the currencies? I believe WW2 will be their model in that through huge government spending and employment ( in the war ) and creation of unheard of debt, the economy was restored. The Fed can create money, but it can't create demand for money. The best argument against delation is the 1930's. The government will not wait like that again. Whether it is military spending, infrastructure spending or "environmental" spending, or a combination of all three, I expect the government to try to replace lost credit dollars with new ones and in the process assume even more control over what they buy. It is a big mistake to think that conservative principles have been advanced over the last 18 years. What people like is something for nothing and the government has encouraged them to believe that it can solve their problems for nothing. The "radical center" politics wasn't invented by Clinton or Tony Blair, it was invented by Ronnie R. End big government but expand the people's expectations of what the government will do for them. We are about to see an "emergengy" which will drive people to DEMAND that their leaders respond with any means deemed necessary. No one will object to the size of the intervention "required". Somehow I don't think that response will be deflationary.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 17:41 - ID#26793)
Oil prices are responding to deflationary pressures

(Sun Feb 15 1998 17:48 - ID#7568)

My database and charting stuff is all homegrown Unix based stuff. Maybe I'll mosey on over to the Linux sites and see if I can get some freeware that takes x,y points and creates charts in gif, tif or whatever form is uploadable.

Off to be a computer nerd.

Charles Keeling
(Sun Feb 15 1998 17:53 - ID#344225)
@ 223
I agree with you. What we are seeing
in Russia, S. E. Asia is INflation. It takes
more and more of their paper money to buy
the same goods.

IF-they dump their goods into our market
place at cheap prices, that could be
deflationary to the US.

Argentina had inflation for over 10 years.
Peru had super hyper inflation, and it took
a suitcase of paper money to buy a pack of

Those who hold gold in an inflationary
country are sitting in the cat birds seat,
and they will find their gold to be buying
more as inflation increases. But, pity
the individual who holds only the local
paper currency.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 17:54 - ID#187218)
If U don't mind sharing UNIX stuff I can compile it and use it as is ... TIA.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 17:54 - ID#26793)
These deflationary pressures are a worldwide event. The FED can influence these things but can not control them. They were set in motion very deliberately by Paul Volker during his term. Jimmy Carter dragged hin back from a meeting in Yugoslavia in April, 1980, to make the appointment at a time when long interest rates reached 17-18%. Volker was the person of choice of the entire world CB community. They knew he would deflate. It has been 18 years, that is pretty gradual. The FED had hoped for a "soft landing". They had been thinking they had achieved it up until Asia broke loose.

The point to remember is that gold holders do well during a deflation as the buying power of the metal increases even as the dollar price drops. We will see that event most clearly in the Dow/Gold Ratio. Deflation has yet to hit the Dow. That will be the Grand-Slam Deflationary Event of all time. Expect a modern day William Jennings Byran to make a modern "Cross of Gold" speech someday soon as debtors feel the squeeze.

Bill El Zebub
(Sun Feb 15 1998 17:56 - ID#261352)
When military madmen feel their power dissipating he may do the unexpected
The general sense of this as conflict we have known before
troubles me.Never underestimate a cornered dog.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 18:01 - ID#234218)
Kinross/AMAX???? Good move or dangerous????
Was curious if anyone has any updated info or analysis on the Kinross/AMAX merger. It seems as though it was a stroke of genius when the news was first released, then it took on an ominous tone, now silence. It would appear that the potential for greatness is there. However, there seems to be some question as to their forward sales position and the cash position of Kinross. Since Kinross shares are seemingly stationary, I am curious. Is there another shoe about to fall? It sure got quiet!!! Opinions?????

With the POG apparently on the threshold of an upward trend it wouldnt seem reasonable that this move would be anything but advantageous.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 18:08 - ID#257136)
T#1 your POST OF00:18
Gotta go along with you re: defenseless.
Not just as a figure of speech. The folks in Waco were in fact defenseless against modern armor and chemical warfare.
I for one am sure you are not an enemy of the PEOPLE whose Nation this IS.
It is damned easy to garrot or stab or kung fu a man to death here on the snowy white jousting ground. It is easier still to consign to a blistering hell the adult and child populace of a freak nation which will not pay obeisance to the tyrant.
I refer to the coward-elect as you so aptly term ol' b.j.! As one "old man" to a ( I think ) younger man. Sir: You are correct Sir!!
To hold an opinion in opposition to that of the many who have "clean" brains is an act of courage!!SIR!!

(Sun Feb 15 1998 18:08 - ID#280222)
electronic trading
Thanks Charles. Will E-Trade also allow you to trade futures and commodity options?...........any other opinions or suggestions?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 18:09 - ID#316193)
Franklin Sanders is editor of THE MONEYCHANGER. Here is his
interview, an interesting one, with Peter Grandich...

(Sun Feb 15 1998 18:13 - ID#210114)
What's Happened at Kitco??
There seems to have been some change of format at Kitco. I seemed to have missed the reasons for it

Could someone please enlighten me??

The Hatt
(Sun Feb 15 1998 18:38 - ID#294232)
War Talk is Pathetic When Discussed In The Same Breath As Gold!
If it is going to take a war to have Gold breakout this goldbug hopes it goes to $100.00! We are talking lives of women and children against a backdrop of money and greed. Gold will go on its own and we had better all pray that these senseless power hungry ass***** in Washington Wake Up! Eventhough I am a redneck and donot trust one of those bast**** in the Middle East,I firmly believe that if we leave them alone their lies and deception will eventually lead to a middle east war and we will let them create their own bed! If Clinton wants to be remembered as a great President all he has to do at this juncture is tell the truth.
Unfortunately for all of us, it seems that the only way Governments know how to operate is to feed us all with a constant dose of half truths and more often than not out and out lies! An old indian friend of mine ( not cherokee ) claims to have the answer! He says," everytime we catch one of these bast**** lying we should shoot them and after you have shot a couple the rest would begin telling the whole truth". I am not in favor of violence however his down to earth back to the basics thinking does have some serious merit!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Sun Feb 15 1998 18:38 - ID#270227)
SNOWBALL Kinross/Amax deal
I tried to find recent commentary on the Contracts outstanding on forward sales and could not but the long and the short of it is they are unwinding their positions and will end up with a lot of cash for their JV deals. If I can get below pasted it might be of some help:



November 24, 1997


Exploration Mirandor Inc. ( MIQ - ME ) is pleased to announce that is has signed
an agreement with Kinross Gold Corporation U.S.A. for the joint exploration,
development and operation of the Railroad project in the Carlin Trend of

The agreement calls for the expenditure by Kinross of $7 million US ( $10
million CAN ) over a 48 month period to earn 50% on a joint venture basis.
During this period, Kinross will be responsible for all property and assessment
payments to maintain the project in good standing. Kinross may elect to carry
out a private placement between $250,000 US and $500,000 US as part of their
commitment during the initial 12 months of the agreement.

Kinross may earn an additional 10% by expending $5 million US ( $7 million CAN )
on a positive feasibility study consistent with the requirements necessary to
obtain project financing.

Upon completion of a positive feasibility study, Kinross and Mirandor will
jointly seek project financing and Kinross will furnish, if necessary, the
necessary completion guarantee on Mirandor's behalf.

The Company is very excited about this outstanding agreement, as it now
allies itself with a serious North American mining company who believes in the
potential of the Railroad project in the Carlin Trend, and who has a proven
track record in mining and exploration.

The President, James Speros, states: "We welcome the addition of Kinross as
our partner at Railroad: their commitment to exploration and production
excellence will allow both companies to grow and develop as we prove up the
potential of our Carlin Trend property. The work carried out by both
companies, including our advisor Mr. Morden C. Lazarus of Lazarus,
Charbonneau in Montreal during these past few weeks allowed us to reach an
understanding between both companies in record time."

The Railroad project consists of over 600 patented and unpatented claims in
addition to approximately 15 square miles of fee ( private ) land located
adjacent to and south of Newmont Gold Inc.'s producing Rain Gold Mine and
their new Emigrant Springs Mine. The South Bullion and Trout Creek deposits
are located adjacent to the south boundary of the project.

The Railroad project contains 15 past producing mines ( copper, lead, gold,
silver ) , all located within a "Carlin" window of lower plate sedimentary rocks
outcropping along the Pion anticline structure. The majority of the gold
deposits in the Carlin Trend are contained within Carlin windows of lower
plate sedimentary rocks.

Mirandor began drilling on the property in August of this year. Even over this
short period of time, the drill program has resulted in three new gold zone
discoveries on the project, at LT East, EHR and Bunker Hill ( gold, copper and
zinc ) while at the same time expanding the potential at the POD gold deposit.

Among the results we may cite: 0.44 oz/ton gold over 20 feet with 0.30%
copper and 0.55% zinc; 0.165 oz/ton gold over 45 feet with .761% copper and
0.15% zinc all at Bunker Hill; .023 ounces per ton gold over 335 feet at EHR;
0.107 ounces per ton gold over 15 feet at LT East; and 0.101 ounces per ton
gold over 55 feet at POD.

Further assay results from the drill program will be available shortly.

This agreement, subject to regulatory approval, allows Mirandor to accelerate
the development of the Railroad project in the Carlin Trend which is one of the
most prolific gold mining areas in the world, with 10 active gold mines, 30
known gold deposits, over 80 million ounces of gold reserves in all categories,
and producing over 3.5 million ounces per year, and is home to such companies
as Newmont and American Barrick.

For more information, please contact:

Mr. James L. Speros, President

Washington office

Tel.: ( 703 ) 478-6613

Val-d'Or office

Tel.: ( 819 ) 825-9065
Fax.: ( 819 ) 825-1199

Montreal office

Tel.: ( 514 ) 285-8565
Fax.: ( 514 ) 285-1617

Charles Keeling
(Sun Feb 15 1998 18:39 - ID#344225)
@ 223
RE: E-Trade

Options trading is available. Commodities?
I dont think so. They are located at:
E-TRADE Securities Inc.
Four Embarcadero Plaza
2400 Geng Road
Palo Alto, Calif 94303

Go to the above URL and check them out. They
will be glad to send you a mailing with
all of the information needed.

Their rates are more than reasonable, and
I have found their service to be good.

They offer all kinds of financial information
on a live basis after you have opened up an
account. Graphs, financial news, quotes, and
almost anything that an investor needs.

They give you a coded name and password for
accessing everything about your account.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 18:44 - ID#227290)
Da Kine & Mirandor
Da Kine,

It looks to me like you have a real winner in Mirandor ( MIQ ) . What did they hit? 60 feet of 15% copper and a gold valuable that was minable in its own right?

Kinross thinks there could well be 5 million ounces of gold equivalent there. And it's right in Nevada.

One drawback. There is a guy intimately involved in the company named Michael David, of Montreal. I have not found him to be too up front and reliable. You might check out the problems he has caused for another company in his stable, Barexor Minerals -- still halted after all these months, I believe.

Of course, the metal doesn't know nor care who owns its.

The stock is starting to move -- currently $.34 ( can ) . If we get a run in the gold price, it should trade in multiples of current price.

The Preacher

Mr. Mick
(Sun Feb 15 1998 18:47 - ID#345321)
Donald - keep the posts coming - they are most intelligent.........
Spock - new format fooled me too.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 18:49 - ID#227290)
Leland & Grandich

I skimmed the Franklin Sanders article with P. Grandich. I'm curious to know why you found it interesting. It looks to me like in the interview, PG was wrong on gold, silver, and the stock market.

Of course, he was dead on the money with Crystallex and has made millions, probably. And, in the end, that's why we invest.

The Preacher

(Sun Feb 15 1998 18:53 - ID#340459)
can anyone tell where I can get Asian price of gold ?
Thanks in advance...

(Sun Feb 15 1998 18:57 - ID#22956)
You say it all so well...hats off.
( what's yer take on Euros?...sideways...hmmm... )
go are setting up the nice trading pennant ( triangle, what have you ) .... ( still ) ...breakout?up?down?sideways? ( hmmm... )

(Sun Feb 15 1998 18:57 - ID#340459)
When USA is defying International view that strikes are futile (3 out 5 security council members,
Russia, China and France and almost all UN member states overall ) Isnt USA in defiance of UN majority view ?

Charles Keeling
(Sun Feb 15 1998 18:57 - ID#344225)
Check my post of 18:39. I misdirected

(Sun Feb 15 1998 19:00 - ID#316193)
Thanks for the challenge. We're all here to exchange what may
be of value. Discard what you dislike. But, please, please,
continue to contribute. This is a DISCUSSION GROUP. I appreciate
positives and negatives.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 19:09 - ID#238422)
Your 15:20 is correct.
Let me be with you in your trenches...

(Sun Feb 15 1998 19:12 - ID#234218)
Re: DA KINE and The Hatt
Thanks for the info. It seems that the cash will be there to support the jv. It just surprizes me that this appears to be an exciting move for Kinross. Yet everything suddenly went silent on the subject. There were even a few hints of something sinister about the merger. My feeling was we could have another PDG in the making. I guess patience and time will tell. I just figured Kinross shares would make more of a move than they did.

THE HATT. Re: your 18:38 post. I couldn't agree more. It's embarrassing to see the state of our politicians. It makes me sick to think that a single American youth could lose their life for the sake of profit. However, I'm not sure that shooting just the one that lies is the answer. I think we should shoot their accomplises too, just to make sure they get the point!!!

(Sun Feb 15 1998 19:13 - ID#270315)
To: Snowball
Is your first name Steve?

I used to know a Steve Snowball he was a furniture and appliance salesman; are you him?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 19:14 - ID#41229)
Tolerant#1, D.A.

I would submit to you that any item is only worth what someone is willing to pay for that item at any given point. As Jin has posted his investment in gold was a good decision but when food is unavailable which is more valuable, food or gold?

I like you believe that the perception of physical gold over fiat currency holds more value due to the labor and capital it takes to produce. Unlike $ where a flip of a switch produces amount desired.


Since the dollars floats against other currency, if a currency falls against the dollar even though oil remained the same with the $ it moved in the fallen currency.

Also if you really think the oil sheiks are concerned with their infrastructure think again, they have all the money they need just from oil, why worry about anything else.

On Anothers comments, lets look at the whole picture. If your in the stock market and the market starts to crash will you not loose confidence in the market and want out. Your perception of value of the market has changed. Why is it clandestine if someone lost the confidence in a piece of paper that represents a note of faith. If the faith is lost all you have is a piece of paper. Get beyond the hoarding of gold by the Arabs or that the have corned the gold market. All it is going to take is a gold back currency to cause the current fiat to collapse, since U.S. $ is largest reserve currency and has most debt it will fall the farthest and has the most to loose.

Is it clandestine when U.S. threatens trade sanctions with Japan over Automobiles. U.S. foreign policies changes all the time when financial interests are threatened. Look at Russia current stance, is this because of concern over human life or concern money will not be paid to them that is owed.

All this humanitarian talk of peoples leaders and govs. Please explain how we have all the deaths from starvation and disease where we could save millions yet we choose to save people in areas where military intervention is needed. People need to wake up and look at the underlying issues.

People can justify actions of countries and Govs. All they want to, but what it really comes down to is, power and money, GREED!

I have not read any posts since yours maybe someone has adressed this issue, BBL

(Sun Feb 15 1998 19:19 - ID#234218)
Sorry, no I'm not the guy.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 19:32 - ID#225273)
Leland: Challenge?
Sorry, Leland,
I didn't mean for my question to be taken as a challenge. I was curious about what portion of the interview you found interesting.

The Preacher

(Sun Feb 15 1998 19:34 - ID#22956)
will it be Sydney?
that breaks the bottom out of gold?? timewilltell...tick-tock, tick-tock...the Aussies threw gold down the clock..... cry in my beer..... ( the US markets are closed tomorrow ) ...... ( ugh ) ....... ( sob ) ......

(Sun Feb 15 1998 19:34 - ID#348169)
D'Accord! with the Hatt@18:38
I agree Hatt, and I certainly hope that for his own sake ( heaven, hell, conscience etc. ) that my friend TED was joking or totally out of it when he made recent comments about using the 'bomb' on those poor infidels in the middle east. American ( Klinton ) 'we know what is best for the world' type of diplomacy is sick beyond all reason as I mentioned here about three weeks ago. In fact, THE fact that many millions of sheep cannot see that they are being brainwashed is beyond me. Before ( and after ) WW1 and WW2 many millions of Americans did not want to be involved in foreign conflicts. The consistant misinformation, ( from what we used to call the Military - Indusrial Complex - ( now add Media ) ) that these poor souls have been forced to lap up, seems now to have turned the tide in the favour of a redkneck nincompoop, doing just about anything he Damn well pleases just about anywhere in the world. In other words the majority of Americans now, once again, believe that there is a God, and his name is Clinton. Think about it people. The last month or two of debate on this subject is degrading to one's intelligence ( and actually, at the same time, down right disgusting ) . All you virulent 'Hawks' better get a life and use your noggin' or there ain't going to be a world worth living in for our children.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 19:35 - ID#316193)
Franklin Sanders

Mo in To
(Sun Feb 15 1998 19:36 - ID#347205)
Is This the New and Improved????
Hey there troops,
What happened to the Kitco webpage. I haven't been lurking for a while and things have changed? Why? I am having trouble getting earlier posts, etc? Does anyone know why the change? What about getting commodity prices while scanning the page? Help.

Mo in To

(Sun Feb 15 1998 19:41 - ID#93232)
Kitco was taken over by an Indonesian laundry company...No tickie??? We don't talk about gold no more, neither? How's your dog?

Mo in To
(Sun Feb 15 1998 19:46 - ID#347205)
Thanks for the reply...
Thanks for your reply. So sorry to hear about foreign takeover..did they use chemical/biological weapons? Alert the Press and billieboy...

Mo in To
ps. don't have no dog neither. Here in the north, we speake
da king's english.

Mo in To
(Sun Feb 15 1998 19:48 - ID#347205)
re: ex-dog

a ps., re: the lack of dog...the cat ate him.

Mo in To

(Sun Feb 15 1998 19:52 - ID#93232)
@MoInTo......they call it yellowmail.........
Cash...cold hard cashe....forty three hundred grillion rupiahs ( that's just the earnest money ) . Equates to fifteen hundred canadian. It was a friendly deal.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 19:53 - ID#344239)
"New Currency"
What are people going to do when Big Bill makes the 90 day Treasurer into
a 30 yr.Bond on the Domestic side.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 19:54 - ID#393224)
Aussie markets
Dullsville in gold/silver shares today. Only thing showing a spark is some of the little oilies. Pre bomb-Iraq buy-up??

(Sun Feb 15 1998 19:59 - ID#253414)
Maybe The Beatles knew best
The current sabre-rattling talk about bombing Iraq because "it's possible that they may have the capability of weapons of mass destruction" reminds me of the old Beatles song Bungalow Bill. As you may remember, a bunch of children watch as Bungalow Bill goes around basically shooting any animal he sees. When he finally shoots an elephant right between the eyes the kids ask him why he did it. His reply? "If looks could kill it coulda been us instead of him."

(Sun Feb 15 1998 20:02 - ID#23398)
to savage re/ e-trading
I used TD GREENLINE WEBBROKER, BEING A CANADIAN I love it since I spend 6 months /year in Florida ( cape Breton South ) .System sometines slow, you can trade stocks, indexes,and options.Set up your portfolios ,easy tracking 24hrs per day.Also follow markets in the U.S. CANADA AND GOLD prices.Very complete.So far very happy.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 20:05 - ID#238422)
Sam, I'm shocked and excited, you are the
first American I met in 7 years who knows
the difference between mass and weight.
What's wrong with you? Just kidding...

Anyway, since all this science confuses
people ( not you, my friend ) , lets use new
units for gold: 1 coin, 1 bar, 1 hussein,
and 1 monic. Any ideas what 1 monic can be?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 20:05 - ID#228262)
@sam Why make things complicated?

sam's 2/15 16:29 posting: SInce this is a gold forum I was just addressing the different units of weight that gold can come in. I was trying to tell you that if you took a kg of gold to your supermarket's produce section and placed it on a scale it would deflect the pointer to 2.2 lbs. This would happen with this same result in Anchorage and Quito. The variation in gravity is insignificant. In fact structures in Anchorage and QUito are designed with the same g constant ( 32.2 ft/sec/sec or its metric equivalent ) . Nobody, except maybe you, buys SLUGS of gold, it is hard enough dealing with grams, troy ounces and metric tonnes. FYI a SLUG weighs 32.2 lbs ( avoir. ) .If you don't believe me weigh one at the supermarket the next time you buy one. Engineer

(Sun Feb 15 1998 20:07 - ID#26793)
Europe worries about the Y2K bug

(Sun Feb 15 1998 20:18 - ID#286234)
1 monic = 8 klinton

(Sun Feb 15 1998 20:25 - ID#286234)
I just didn't want people to get the idea that mass and force generated by gravity ( weight ) are the same kind of things.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 20:25 - ID#227290)
Leland & Franklin Sanders

I just called Franklin Sanders to tell him he was being discussed on the internet. The modest man was quite taken aback.
He was surprised to hear I thought the latest move in the Dow was powerful. He is keying on his "Dow in gold dollars" indicator, which shows the Dow not making a new high. He thinks the market has turned and that gold will outperform the Dow going forward.

His new silver stock play is Pacific Rim -- Vancouver. I know something about that one.

Don Mcleod is a mining legend in Canada. His daughter, Katheryn, runs PR. She hit it big in her first mining venture, Arequippa Resources. This is her next play.

The company has a good silver property in Mexico, I believe. It also has a jv with Barrick in Argentina, I think. They've hit some silver but I don't think it's to the proven & probable reserve category yet.

The write-up is in the new Moneychanger.

The Preacher

(Sun Feb 15 1998 20:28 - ID#340459)
Does anyone know the current POG in Asia ?
Is it moving much ?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 20:32 - ID#341214)
WetGold: Y2K
WetGold: I'll certainly do my best not to take anything that we discuss as a personal affront. My defensive mechanism stems more from wanting to get people on track in this situation. The scope of this problem is so large that it can not and will not be understood by most people until it is too late.

Your optimistic view of the problems at the FAA is a perfect example of how people interpret these situations. It appears that you think because the problem is perfectly obvious to those at the FAA that they are, of course, "doing something" AND will have it done on time. Don't forget, the deadline for fixing this problem is intractable. The FAA has not even completed their review of all the systems ( hardware and software ) they need to upgrade. If you would look closely at just this one subject I think you would start to become a little more aware of where we are heading. I'd be glad to post some URL's for you on the subject and discuss it futher via e-mail ( ) . Please don't put your faith in government agencies just because the problem is such an obvious one. It's been obvious for decades and no one has done anything about it until now!!

If contractors are able to increase their revenue it is because they are becoming a scarce resource, not because of hype. Contractors are not selling services to people calling an 800 number. They are selling services to data processing managers who understand or are trying to understand what they are up against. Nobody made the CIOs, data processing managers and government agencies wait until now to address this problem. They could have picked up the phone years ago to contract for Y2K remediation services or they could have done it in house. Because most everyone has waited until the last minute they will have to pay the price because there are only so many programmers to go around. It reminds me of when gold was so high in 1979 and the johnny-come-latelys were lined up out the door at the coin dealers.

I wish I could agree with your premise that something else is going on but the only place I have really felt there was hype involved are those companies pushing utility programs that they say will solve a company's Y2K problems. Indeed, these tools are invaluable, but I think the companies selling them are a little lax in explaining that they are not total solutions.

I'm not sure how we will set the terms of the bet. I think you are such a gentleman that once you see and experience first hand the problems this situation is going to cause you will come to the conclusion that you were wrong. I promise you won't have to wait until 2001 to come to that conclusion. To be honest, I would get far greater satisfaction from bringing you over to the Dark Side ( Y2K Alarmist ) than I would in taking your two Maple Leafs.

Gold dust
(Sun Feb 15 1998 20:39 - ID#431206)
Who thinks that the day after the Olympics are over Iraq is going to get the hell bombed out of them?

reno gambler
(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:01 - ID#413124)
GEORGE SOROS COMMENTS " The only currency worth owning

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:01 - ID#255217)
Real gold slugs
In addition to being a unit of mass in the English system, a SLUG used to be common parlance for a fifty dollar ( $50 ) gold piece back when gold circulated freely in this country. Fifty dollar gold slugs were never regular U.S. issues however, and were intended to fill the gap where coinage of any kind was scarce, especially in the new territories and Calif.

Most slugs were issued by private mints or individuals. Some had quasi-official status, however. Since they were all gold, they were readily accepted at face value most of the time. Today, ALL gold slugs are rare to extremely rare and command high numismatic value. If you found a dozen or so in Grandma's old trunk in the attic ( not likely ) , it would be cause for exreme rejoicing.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:04 - ID#348127)

I was just looking at the Asian Stocks and noticed Indonisia did not open tonight. Whats up holiday or chaos.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:07 - ID#57232)
I'm impressed!
sam: Your post to Engineer indicates that you would be at home visiting the National Bureau of Standards, or designing spacecraft that work. I have no doubt you are familiar with the Eotvos experiment where the equivalence of mass and weight for different objects was measured to 1 part in 1 billion. E.G., an equal mass of gold and lead has the same weight to as many significant figures as you are capable of measuring. By the way, I think we will find out in the next 50 years of so that our concept of gravity as an attractive force is totally false, and that it is due to the nearly isotropic ( uniform ) flux of an unknown form of particulate radiation from the universe that surrounds us.

If you have some time, try figuring out if a form of radiation that bathes us in nearly all directions can still give the inverse square law of gravity -- if you assume, for example that the moon shadows some of that radiation, so it is pushed toward the earth. So far, the essence of gravity has escaped the understanding of Physicists, but with gravity modification experiments such as the Tampere study by Podkletnov, a dim understanding of the quantum nature of gravity is being unveiled.

We will have many new discoveries such as this, I believe, as we slowly realize that quantum mechanics and particle physics apply on a macroscopic scale - supposedly explained only by 'Classical' Physics. That 'Blacklight' alternative energy site suggests the opposite as well -- that certain aspects of Classical physics applies on a microscopic scale - I can't find anything to indicate that there is anything wrong with the theory presented -- which may explain 'Cold Fusion'.

We will have alot to look forward to in the next century if we can keep from ruining our economic systems, or from blowing each other up!

reno gambler
(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:08 - ID#413124)

"We may see the capitalist system collapse some time between 2007 and 2015 and that the only currency worth owning will be precious metals

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:11 - ID#339212)
The dollar's floor price is 5 cents

Some good news for the dollar:

Production costs of $1 bills have risen to 5 cents for each dollar bill produced, after taking into account printing, transportation, and distribution of the $1 bills to banks, and destruction of the old currency.

This cost relates to 0.16 milligrams for the production of each $1 bill.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:12 - ID#225273)
Reno Gambler, Soros, & Gold

I hope we don't have to wait that long before the PMs rise.

BTW, where did that quote come from?

The Preacher

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:15 - ID#187218)
Thanx for your very thought provoking post. If we do not come to terms in our "disagreement" I will be more than happy to send you Maples,,, when I see the facts before me I will admit ( at that time ) that I may be wrong. However, I hope I am not wrong because from what I read much suffering will be seen and I don't want such disasters to befall anyone.

For the record:,,, I am not a novice here. For a time, I was in charge of a "skunk works" in which we ( our group ) had achieved several patents. This "works" was in a utility and its mission was secret because it was illegal to manufacture and patent elements to make the utility more efficient ( our government in action ) . From where I stand now I look back and see many facets and careers that are uniquely divergent from another and I wish not get into those details bcause they are not relevant.

A brief history: I coded Fortran and taught classes in the late 70's in 8080 machine code and Zilog's Z80. I taught classes on all facets of the PDP8, PDP11, and RXM operating system. I've been extensively involved in C-language while at Bell Labs for a stint, as well as, Bellcore. While an Adjunct Prof. I had worked with a government agency at which I was granted a Top Secret Clearance ( never held proprietary nor Secret due to the nature of the contract ) . I've been successfully involved in contract negotiations between American and International manufacturers regarding their products: both hardware and software. My involvement in the MCUP forums ( National forum for Mechanization ) had been involved with discussion such as Y2K many years ago. Currently, I am not involved in this business but we discussed these problems then ( late 70's thru mid-80's ) .

I am not suggesting that we should sit back and let government resolve it,, they won't. I am convinced that government will throw lotsa' money at this ( WAY TOO MUCH ) because they want the problem resolved now when they could have paid $0.10 on the dollar if they were in the private sector.

Could I be incorrect in my assumption,, of course. Do I think the problem exists,, of course. Am I confident that computer professionals are getting a handle on this,, mostly. Do I believe that banks are going to fail on a grand scale OR air-traffic will be significantly in danger MORE SO THAN NOW,, NO. I am convinced that whatever happens after Y2K that everything that would naturally occur due to ineptness prevalent ALL THE TIME will be blamed on a lack of forsight to resolve Y2K problems at that particular establishment.

Let's give it some time and see what happens and agree to disagree as to the nature of the HYPE.

Thanx for reading this lengthy post,,, once again.!

p.s. I had ( at one time ) volunteered to be an aircraft mechanic while taking flying lessons,,,, lotsa fun. I'm somewhat familiar with the equipment and their problems.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:16 - ID#339212)
0.16 mg of gold for each $1 bill produced

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:22 - ID#339212)
@ reno gambler

Are you sure Soros didn't mention anything about gold stocks?

Crystal Ball
(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:24 - ID#340392)
Hong KongHang Seng^HS I9:22PM 9946.12 -328.48 -3.20%
JapanNikkei 225 9:02PM 16643.16 -147.85 -0.88%
MalaysiaKLSE Composite 9:23PM 666.50 -19.00 -2.77%
PhilippinesPSE Composite19:23PM 2009.67 -85.31 -4.07%
SingaporeStraits Times 19:21PM 1506.12 -46.57 -3.00%
( Spoos down about 340 )

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:27 - ID#348286)
@CAMDESSUS policies were set to fail, Indonesian riots just the start. This FRAUD will fail.....
February 15, 1998

IMF-Indonesia clash may set back rescue efforts

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - A tense standoff between the International Monetary Fund and Indonesian President Suharto over how to rescue the beleaguered rupiah currency has put the country's $43 billion bailout in jeopardy.
 It could also set back global efforts to contain the financial crisis in Asia.
 The IMF, the United States and Germany have urged Suharto to abandon plans for a rigid fixed-rate currency system, warning that the proposal could undermine reforms and further hurt confidence in the world's fourth most populous country.
 In a stern letter to Suharto, IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus even threatened to cut off bailout funds to Indonesia over the dispute. The threat, first reported by the Washington Post Saturday, could deeply unnerve financial markets.
 "If a currency board proposal were adopted, we would not be able to recommend to the IMF board the continuation of the current program because of the risks to the Indonesian economy," the Post quoted Camdessus' letter as saying.
 Indonesia, a chain of islands with a population of 220 million, turned to the IMF for help last year after a crash in the rupiah exposed weaknesses in its financial sector.
 But the bailout did little to restore confidence, and the rupiah went into free fall amid doubts about the government's commitment to economic reforms.
 Desperate to stabilize the currency and the economy, Suharto is now considering the drastic alternative of a type of exchange rate system known as a currency board that would fix the value of the rupiah against the dollar.
 Hong Kong adopted such a system in 1983. It has been followed by Argentina, Estonia and Lithuania, and some advocates have urged other countries, including Mexico, Russia and Ukraine, to follow suit.
 But the IMF and key member countries have expressed strong reservations about such a plan for Indonesia.
 Imposing the rigid measure could send interest rates soaring and put more pressure on the financial system. If it failed, the consequences could be far worse.
 "We are of the strong view that this moment has not yet come in Indonesia...since for the introduction of the currency board to be successful, a number of preconditions need to be satisfied," Camdessus said in an address Friday, adding his views were shared by the IMF's executive board.
 "The failure of the currency board would completely undermine credibility in policy making and severely damage the country's growth prospects," Camdessus said.
 The United States and Germany have also warned Suharto that he could be making a huge mistake.
 President Clinton spoke with Suharto for about 30 minutes by telephone Friday night "to go over the current situation," a White House official said.
 German Deputy Finance Minister Juergen Stark criticized the plan as premature and breaking the spirit of Indonesia's agreements with the IMF.
 Australian Treasurer Peter Costello said the best way for Indonesia to stabilize the rupiah was through the IMF program rather than through a fixed-rate system.
 But none had warned as bluntly as Camdessus that Indonesia faced a cutoff of funds if it went ahead with the plan.
 If Suharto refuses to back down and Camdessus follows through on his threat, Jakarta could be denied billions of dollars in aid next month.
 The IMF is scheduled to give $3 billion to Indonesia in March, but only after a review of its compliance with terms of the $43 billion rescue package. Further disbursements will also be subject to program reviews.
 Cutting off or freezing aid to Jakarta carries with it serious risks. Without the money, Indonesia's economy and currency could weaken even further.
 The vast archipelago has already been hit by a series of riots over rising prices, and political observers say the unrest could increase if the economy does not turn around.
 It also risks unsettling financial markets in the rest of Asia just as the battered economies of South Korea and Thailand are beginning to make progress.
 On the other hand, if Camdessus stands up to Suharto it might help the lending agency in the U.S. Congress. Clinton wants Congress to approve $18 billion in new funding for the IMF to replenish reserves drained by the Asian crisis.
 He has faced a tough fight because many lawmakers have accused Camdessus of catering to Suharto, a former general who has ruled with an iron grip for three decades.

Crystal Ball
(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:29 - ID#340392)
Found your comments interesting. I was under the impression gravity was due to curvature in space.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:32 - ID#401460)
Hang Seng
Hong Kong
Hang Seng

With the US closed tomorrow, should be an interesting evening in Asia.


(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:33 - ID#210235)
I would surely appreciate if you would repost a couple of those URL's which you have posted in the past. While I didn't pay much attention to the YK2000 problem, as it is under control in our neck of the woods, the extent that it will effect the infrastructure is worth looking into further. Thanks.

Do you ( or do any sites you visit ) offer suggestions for reducing the size of a personal hit from this impending chaos? Is there, in fact, any way to protect oneself except becoming temporarily an island?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:34 - ID#187218)
Travolta, Scientology, & U.S. Government Briefings.
Had anyone seen the "Meet the Press" program today with Tim Russert who had interviewed BCs National Security Advisor, ??? Berger ? Russert asked the question of Mr. Berger why John Travolta was involved in U.S. Security Briefings with Germany regarding Germany's stance on allowing the Church of Scientology recognition in certain elements of German government.

Apparently this information was obtained in "George", the JFK, Jr. magazine. This BC guy is a real disgrace.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:35 - ID#187218)
Oops, forgot....
NSA Berger said that he only asked Travolta for an autograph for one of his kids....

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:35 - ID#269191)
The floor value of the fiat dollar is zero. The cost of producing
them is irrelevant. If they create enough of them to cause the
crack-up boom, aka the flight to real values or aka hyperinflation, the
dollar will become worthless like the Mark in 1923.

It has been said that the government is the only entity that can
take a useful commodity like paper, slap some ink on it, and make
it worthless.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:37 - ID#344308)

iraq WANTS the us and britain to attack. this is the
crux-of-flux......iraq will not allow the us what it wants...
the trap for the west is saddam...he dreams of babylon
and its' gardens......
pog if we attack? up.....more escalation?...further faster...

price of oil? jumped to 42bbl in '91......check-out the chart..
dec98 crude calls are cheap.......if you believe we will attack...
there is the place to be.........even a $10bbl jump would pay-off
big-time...saddam wants the us to attack...he'll find a way....
billy-boy is being blown by the winds of war......and manuevering
he cannot even comprehend....slick indeed....he was out-flanked and
co-opted 20 years we go......chaos and flux.....the
smoke-signals have etched the horizon for over 12 full moons.....
the peopleo see only a haze....and then continue their journey into
the maze of blinders and friendly cliffs.......

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:37 - ID#339212)

If there is a worldwide deflation, gold stocks will be the prime beneficiaries because:

1. gold will be upvalued ( a la '30s )
2. mine labor will be cheap pushing lower the production costs.

Any comments?

Crystal Ball
(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:37 - ID#340392)
@ Argent
Aside from the private mints ( Moffatt, Humbert, Wass, Molitor & Co. ) , the U.S. ( San Franscisco ) Mint also made $50 slugs ( over 2 troy ounces each ) in 1915 for the Panama Pacific Exposition. Only 483 round and 645 octagonal Pan-Pac slugs were sold/issued, the rest were melted down.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:39 - ID#187218)
When you asked the question of personal protection are you referring to your own PC ? I set my PC-clock to 1999 in 1997 and today my PC clock and all its periphery, applications, et al work fine ( with it automatically setting itself to 2000 ) . I also have a AT&T 3B2/400 minicomputer and a 3B2/500 that seem to work fine under the same scenario.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:40 - ID#269191)
I agree with you about the fate of gold stocks in a deflation.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:41 - ID#228262)
@ refer (oil and gold)

refer 2/15 15:16 post: It is also my understanding that the Arabs only relate the value of their oil to gold. If they purchase gold at a lower price they feel they are adequately compensated because they know the gold will be there no matter what happens to paper money. IMHO this is what ANOTHER has been telling u`s.My point is that suppressing the price of commodities like oil and gold increases their demand. This is what is happening now, demand is increasing at an accelerating rate. In a truly free-market the price adjusts to establish equilibrium between supply and demand. This is being prevented by manipulation ( CB's,Oil Producers et al. ) . A cataclysmic world event could easily unhinge this arraangement for oil and gold. Either that or the demand for gold will force its price to increase. We may be near that point now. Witness WB's purchase of 130 M ozs of silver because it was so cheap he could not afford to be without it. Gold at $300/oz is just as attractive.-Engineer

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:43 - ID#284246)

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:43 - ID#20748)
DEJ. No paper and ink
New dollars are manufactured with electrons.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:44 - ID#339212)

The $1 bill will always have some collector's value ( as the 1923 Mark does ) .
For generations to come this will be the monumental sign of the lost empire!

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:49 - ID#284246)
Silver leasing
How can I profit from the very high lease rates for silver? What sort of quantity is involved i.e. how much do I have to physically hold before I can lease it out?

Indeed, can an ordinary Joe Blow like me lease out his physically held silver?

Can someone please explain the mechanics?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:50 - ID#187218)
Prometheus@an alternative view.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:51 - ID#286234)
I would love to visit the National Bureau of Standards, they have an atomic clock there, dont they? The other topics you introduce are way above my level of understanding. I am still stuck with the old-timey thought that inverse-square pertains to radiation from a point source.

Its sad that you should be impressed by my rudimentary understanding of a few principles of Newtonian physics. This is really basic essential stuff that should have been a part of everyones education, even goldbugs and PM analysts. Why arent basic physics and math and reading and writing skills being taught to our children?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:53 - ID#426220)

It's Stock Meltdown Time in the Far-East and surrounds:
China DOWN 0.5%
Hong Kong DOWN 2.8%
Japan DOWN 1%
Malaysia DOWN 3.4%
Philippines DOWN 4.6%
Singapore DOWN 3.1%
New Zealand DOWN 1%
Taiwan DOWN 0.5%

... and eventually so will the WEST

Mr. Mick
(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:58 - ID#345321)
Myromidon - you just have to face it...........
all paper assets will eventually be worthless. PMs are the only currency that lasts generation after generation.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 21:59 - ID#210235)
No problemo seen on the horizon here, with PC's, networking software, etc. But am having some questions about the grid, on which the family is very much dependent. Are the phone systems, electrical utilities, etc. going to out on us? Keep hearing that the air traffic controllers system is antiquated, but it's easier to stop flying than to stop using the refrigerator.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 22:01 - ID#187218)
I can scare just as easily:

"... I met with one high-placed programmer with a well known and very large automotive-related firm the other day who confessed to me that he was so apprehensive what would happen with the "Millenium Bug" hits that he was waking up in the middle of the night suffering panic attacks... "


"... I know of other computer experts around the country who are planning to stockpile food, are practicing home "Power Drills" to see what it would be like without electricity and are enrolling in basic survival skills training like carpentry, first aid, meat processing and butchering, and organic gardening... "

Full text:

(Sun Feb 15 1998 22:02 - ID#187218)
Week or two ago I gave a lengthy discussion as to the details of the telephony industry,,, no worries man....

If I get a change I look for it...

(Sun Feb 15 1998 22:07 - ID#187218)
BART,,, can't go back week or two....
Trying to do some research for Mr. Prometheus and can't go back EVEN THOUGH I access the short-text and only for 1 time slot. I;ve tried 01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb 1998 and comes up blank... What's the que pasa' , man ???

(Sun Feb 15 1998 22:09 - ID#339212)
@ Mr. Mick

Gold, no matter what the outcome, will always be related to paper. It always has since paper was invented.

There is a flaw in your thinking. By owning a mine, one doesn't own paper assets. Assets are related to gold and he who owns a mine owns gold. At least the gold in the ground.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 22:11 - ID#341214)
WetGold - Y2K, Bart - Viewing Criteria
WetGold: One place I agree with you 100% is your statement:

"However, I hope I am not wrong because from what I read much suffering will be seen and I don't want such disasters to befall anyone."

I sincerely hope that I'm wrong in being alarmist on this subject but I can not ignore my interpretation of the facts as they currently stand. Imagine how I would feel if my interpretation turned out to be right but I had done nothing to alert people to this situation.

Thank you for giving me a glimpse of your background. It is most useful when figuring out the best way to convey some of this information. I wrote a couple of systems in PDP11 Basic for Wells Fargo Bank in the early 80's. If there is anything regarding Y2K that you would like to exchange e-mails about please feel free to use the address provided earlier. Thank you for the interesting exchanges today.

Bart: Here's a simple idea for saving some bandwidth. When I initially log on to the forum I often want to look through older messages first and the current messages later. Obviously, I have to wait until all the current messages are delivered before I can access the viewing criteria near the top of the discussion page. How about if you provided a page that just lists the viewing criteria? Not only would that page display more quickly it would allow me to go straight to the messages I wanted to see and would prevent Kitco from delivering text that I'm not interested in at the moment.

Does your service provider charge you the same rate all the way around the clock or do they charge less for bandwidth used in off hours? If I'm getting too nosy here just brush me off.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 22:15 - ID#227290)
Engineer & ANOTHER

I think your analysis of the oil/gold bond is pretty good. You are looking for a cataclysmic event to propel them both upwards and/or break the link between them. Is this correct?

ANOTHER talks as though there is an agreement between CBs and oil states and now that the oil states have garnered "enough" gold, they will begin driving the price of oil higher.

ANOTHER talks like he has personal knowledge of the situation. What do you think? Is he just a guy with a hypothesis or is he an insider anonymously sharing his knowledge with us?

The Preacher

(Sun Feb 15 1998 22:18 - ID#187218)
speaking of telephones,,, not sure if any Canadian out there but here's the story anyhow,,,
I was travelling and vacationing in Bermuda in 1997. Whenever and wherever I travel I try to get a local flavor by befriending locals. To make a long story short,,,, I was invited to a wedding and at the ceremony someone asked me why these Canadian workers were down here during the winter for 6 months. I don't know. The next day, I checked it out and introduced myself and had dinner with several of them and the next day met the whole crew.

BOTTOM LINE: Northern Telecom ( NTI ) had contracted with the Bermuda government to move telephone poles from one side of the street to the other, during the winter, and the whole department went from Director on down,,, families too with all expenses paid. I might add that the contract also called for generic upgrades to their two C$20 M central offices ( only 2 nxx's ) but this was not the initial premise of the contract.

Ahhhhhh, yesssssss!

(Sun Feb 15 1998 22:18 - ID#215208)
RSA Platinum
farfel - Impala Platinum ( IMPAY ) and Anglo-American Platinum ( AAPTY ) . J. Disney's back posts.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 22:19 - ID#255217)
After paper collapses...
Has anyone given serious consideration to the prospect that in the event of economic chaos resulting in the destruction of paper as a medium of exchange ( probably only temporarily ) , that the use of gold and silver as real money has its limitations? If you wanted to buy a new car for instance, how would you pay for it? BAGS of 90% silver coins?

More likely several one-ounce gold pieces; how many would depend on the price of the car and the current price of gold. Lets say, the price of the car was five one-ounce gold pieces plus change. You make the purchase and drive your new car home. Consider that there are THOUSANDS of such transactions each day. And all that gold chancing hands ( literally ) . HOW well will maples hold up for such day to day use and for how long?

Maple leaf coins are pure, unalloyed gold, which doesn't stand such abuse very well at all. Of course they aren't really meant to in the first place. They are intended as a store of REAL value, NOT as an exchange medium. Which begs the question: Why should one opt to own M.L.'s as opposed to golden eagles, which are alloyed with copper , and should withstand actual circulation abuse much better. ALL U.S. gold coins issued for general circulation were so alloyed for that very reason.

I am not knocking maples as such, just their ability to withstand wear. I've got maples myself. And they are beautiful. What gold coin isn't? But I also have golden eagles and they would most likely see circulation first should the occasion arise. Believe me, pure gold is soft, relatively speaking. A pure gold coin in circulation for very long at all would lose a significant percentage of gold quickly. Such a coin if it were valued at $2000 or $5000 in todays dollars could lose several hundred dollars worth of gold in a matter of months, or less, if it saw significant circulation.

Maybe the crises would't last long enough for this concern to be a real problem. Paper would HAVE to be re-instituted soon, BACKED by gold, of course, or the logistics of large transferrals of gold for really large transactions would become a nightmare. HOW would the goverment pay for an aircraft carrier? Perhaps this borders on the absurd when carried this far. I haven't really thought this out in great depth. Any thoughts?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 22:24 - ID#187218)
I too enjoyed the exchange. I must praise you for coaching me that it is YOUR DUTY to report what you see,,, I respect that in a professional and I agree with you.

I guess now it's a waiting game,,, let's hope for the best despite the outcome.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 22:25 - ID#372344)
@ Old Gold....Iraq, ME Oil, Gold.....
While I would certainly agree with your view that it is possible that
Gold could dip to $290 before moving strongly up, as US Bombs Iraq,
however I must take issue and, I wonder if you agree, with some here
who are going back to the start of the Gulf War and Gold's reaction
then, and attempting to look for a pattern as to Gold's behavior this time.
In my view, there is little comparison. Then the US and the World were united vs Iraq, Iran was neutralized , massive firepower and ground
troops which were eventually necessary to oust the Iraqis out of Kuwait,
airpower wouldn't have done it, but more importanly the outcome of
the Gulf War was never in doubt, Gold knew the US was going to
come out victorious, and it's scope of influence in the region, greatly
enhanced. This time around, as I stated, this is a"gang" up on that
very US influence in the ME, most of the former Gulf war allies no
where in sight, and the Russians and Chinese backing Iraq, and
Iran can not been neutralized this time. In other words the outcome
bombing or not , is totally unkown as the situation is now fluid.
Anything and everything is possible. Just heard tonight that the US is
now saying, can one believe this?, that Iraqi bio-chem weapons
are actually stored in Lybia, Sudan etc... which might give us some
idea of just how wide this crisis could extend.
Another,pardon the pun, point I wanted to mention is your view that
Oil's price is determined by demand and that the Arabs would not
demand payment in Gold. I have a different view of this issue,
obviously not quite as dramatic, sudden, or mysterious as Another,
however, it is possible that after the US id forced out of that region
that some Oil States would demand payment in Gold, once the Oil
is gone in a few decades, all they will have to show is paper, if they
don't demand Gold. Most of these Oil States are having to cut back
in a serious way which has put great pressure on the Rulers.....
BTW, A prince from Quatar flew into Baghdad with a plane load of humanitarian aid, this guy was Hussein's enemy a few months ago, this almost musical chair game of allies and enemies in that region is why it
is so volatile.
A final point, it is my view that one of the major reasons that Gold went
up so dramatically in 1979-80, was because the perception was that
the US would loose it's control of Oil in the region ( Iran Islamic revolution )
and thus ultimately the US$ would loose it's sole reserve currency status.
It was only after the US re-established control in the Region, that
Gold went south and the US$ and assets north. BUT it is only a matter
of time now, before that position reverses.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 22:35 - ID#187218)
Why do you think the paper problem will be temporary. Also, my take on your post:

Paragraph 1: You are using the argument that George Stephanoplis used when trying to diminish the candidacy of Dole/Kemp. "Georgie" said that it is too inconvenient to carry around these pieces of metal even temporarily. THE ARGUMENT IS BACKING.

Paragraph 2: I'm not sure of history in Canada but how was it performed before. Was a hardening alloy used or did Canadians utilize U.S. bullion ?

Paragraph 3: Great analysis.

Paragraph 5: How did governments pay for large expenditures prior to the confiscation ? By transfer of payment in bullion.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 22:38 - ID#215208)
Pay for full-text view.
Bart - I always use full text view. Often there are gems hidden that are not evident in short view. I will gladly contribute if it will allow you to maintain and improve the site. A few comments:

1 ) I use AOL. It may be only an AOL idiosyncrasy, but often when I return from a link, including getting full text when starting from short text view, the system does a full refresh, as if I hit submit. If you can solve this problem, you may cut bandwidth consumption considerably.

2 ) For all contributors and lurkers, when on-line and following current Kitco posts, the only way to get new posts is to hit "submit". This reloads all the posts for the time period selected. A VERY big waste of bandwidth. You need to add a "Recent Posts" button that retrieves just, say, the last half-hour of posts. ( Some continuity would be lost if you just showed the new, unviewed posts. )

3 ) I would very much like to find a way for you to waive the fee for some international contributors like JIN. Their posts are valued by all, and they have been hard hit by the currency crisis. Even your very reasonable fee would take bread off their table.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 22:43 - ID#233181)
Now they are looking at 90K+ with infill results of Pleasant Canyon and a few other sites within the Panamint claim block. If the new cone crushers drop cash costs to ~ $240 the stock at a dollar will indeed have a remarkable reserve cap, throw in McDonald and well, its not even appropriate to discuss. The cost of gold in many Asian currencies has risen remarkably and with the forward selling and CB activity of late, I'd be hard pressed to argue for sustained AU in the $290's, especially with South Africa consolidating at its lowest production levels in many years.


(Sun Feb 15 1998 22:49 - ID#57232)
Gravity due to curvature of space - complements of Einstein
Crystal Ball: The concept of curved space - Einstein's general relavity -- is a 'Classical' Physics concept. It is very hard for us to comprehend a 'Quantum' Universe at our macroscopic level - we could very well have Quantum gravity and Einsteins General Relativity coexisting. One does not have to exclude the other.

One more fundamental grounds, what really matters is the mass of experimental data accumulated over the years -- not whether General Relativity gives all the answers. We may find that the quantum gravity model means that Einsteins work needs to be modified. You cannot blame Einstein -- he only had the experimental data of the time -- an then he extrapolated. It never ceases to amaze me how he came up with general Relativity with so little actual data, and it has held up so well.

Did you know Einstein considered his work a failure, as he was not able to come up with a theory of everything? So his grand theory was incomplete. He knew there was something missing.

By the way, Einstein assumed the speed of light was constant -- a reasonable assumption in his time, given Michelson's work. Perhaps it is not. For example, the speed of light in a diamond is less than 1/2 of what it is in a vacuum.

sam: You are right -- it is unfortunate that science is not taken as seriously in our schools as it once was. It seems that the only thing American children are learning with any expeetise is how to work with computers. And -- this is not really from school anyway.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 22:53 - ID#215379)
Ardent---Gold as an Exchange medium
There is a company called E-Gold on the Web, where you can deposit your gold and use it as credit to buy and sell with someone else who has gold with them. Electronic Gold.....

(Sun Feb 15 1998 23:00 - ID#401460)
Ship Blows Up Starts War
A President McKinley and Roosevelt thing - around the time of the creation of the Federal Reserve. Bull Moose third party created to get their man in. Kind of like Ross Perot and Clinton.

Remember the sinking of the Maine, which started the Spanish American War.
The ship was off Cuba protecting our interest ( sound familiar ) when it mysteriously blew up. Gave us a reason to go to war with Spain.

One of the networks had a story on it, anniversary or something. I hope one of the US ships doesnt blow up mysteriously.

There have already been way to many mysterious deaths in the last few years - planes, trains, and........ Oh well, what ever it takes to fool the American public again.

One of these days, we will be reading about some aircraft carrier captain with a 45 cal hole in the top of his head.

I dont know if I got the story right but its close, I think.


(Sun Feb 15 1998 23:02 - ID#233181)
Re: ME OIL , Old Gold
Enjoyed TZADEAK's post on topic as most of the "reporting" through traditional media is lacking, exceedingly. If there is a U.S. led strike, how do we conduct BDA aka "battle damage assesment" if they don't know where the facilities are now, how will they know later, especially after non strategic sites have been decoyed with humane Iraqi shields?
Russia needs to get paid for past "items" and Luk oil has a big deal in the wings. Does Israel respond if attacked ? The latest Economist has a story on large scale under ground Libyan tunnels, designed for agriculture?? near that secret mountain that trucks go into?? There is this and much more...did the DOW hit 8300+? Hey mommy, what's a mutual fund?

Thanks for this indulgence.


(Sun Feb 15 1998 23:07 - ID#31868)
all - off topic but I need help
Can anyone help me with the selection of a lap-top computer. Money is not an object. Just a brand name you folks trust is good enough for me. Thanks.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 23:11 - ID#434137)
Blah Blah Bandwidth
its just text.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 23:19 - ID#401460)
The New Mac G3, which you may have seen commercials for recently, is fast. ZIP drive CD and all. Apple is coming out shortly with the new OS system which is awesome. The NeXT OS merge is in Beta and coming out soon.

It is called Rhapsody right now. Cross platform.


TO SUBSCRIBE: To subscribe, email:
Please include the word subscribe in the subject or body of the messag


(Sun Feb 15 1998 23:21 - ID#434137)
a Mac? HAR HAR

(Sun Feb 15 1998 23:25 - ID#271215)
If silver goes up from here would PAASF be a good stock to own?

(Sun Feb 15 1998 23:28 - ID#401460)
How fast is fast?
Out of the box, the Power Macintosh G3/266 is twice as fast as a computer using a 300 MHz Pentium II chip. That's not just our opinion. That's the result of tests using BYTE Magazine's BYTEmark benchmark program, an industry-accepted measure of computer processor speed. No wonder the Power Mac G3 is the fastest selling computer in Apple history.

Faster at any speed
BYTEmark tests prove that the Power Macintosh G3/266 and Power Macintosh G3/233 were almost twice as fast as the Compaq 4860/PII 33 and Compaq 5100/PII 300, respectively. And the PowerBook G3 is a Pentium-humbling 80% faster than any other notebook you can buy


(Sun Feb 15 1998 23:31 - ID#434137)
note on g3, the test only measure the cpu, not to metion emulated
fpu, btw they only want 900.00 more for the 17" monitor, keyboard, and mouse.. hrmmm

(Sun Feb 15 1998 23:32 - ID#255217)
Paper with no backing
One further thought on gold coinage. In ancient societies, debasement or counterfeiting of gold coins ( and probably silver coins, too ) was punishable by DEATH. The old-time governments took their coinage SERIOUSLY. Why? Because corruption of a country's coinage was to strike at the very heart of that country's lifeblood, its medium of exchange.

Even in colonial Spain's New World empire, government officials who were caught manipulating the content or weight of the mint's coinage to their own advantage were relieved from their posts and sent back to Spain to face trial and possibly execution. Not too surprisingly, there was very little such chicanery ever brought to light.

Perhaps if today's government officials responsible for similar abuses, albeit under different guises, were subject to such penalities, we would not be having the problems we face now. Need I be more specific?

You have probably all heard the story that in many Islamic countries a man caught stealing would have one of his hands cut off. You occasionally see a man with ONE hand missing, but you NEVER see a man with BOTH hands missing. Debasement of a currency is STEALING from the people of that country!

(Sun Feb 15 1998 23:34 - ID#57232)
RE: ANOTHER -- Gold/dollar/Oil -- We are selling gold for oil - for a time.
All: I'd like to add a few comments of my own -- I agree with D.A. that supply and demand rules the value of each of gold/dollar/oil. But -- the relationship betwen these three can be manipulated. At one time the dollar was fixed in so many ounces of gold, and oil in so many dollars. These rigid exchange methods failed, to the consternation of the banker types that control the dollar money supply. But they can still manipulate the dollar/oil relationship short term.

Now gold/dollar/oil are now 'floating', even if gold and oil are priced in dollars, and most worldwide derivatives trades relating to gold and oil are based in dollars. Those countries that peg their currency to the US dollar watch their price of oil and gold fluctuate just due to dollar fluctuations, and the realative price of oil vs gold is not fully floating either -- it has a tendency to cycle above and below equilibrium, with a relaxation time that derivatives experts undoubtedly know.

What is really important, however, is that oil must be 'cheap' for the Western world to maintain their economies, since oil is essential to so many parts of our economy. So, anything that causes the price of oil to go up -- a relative shortage, war, inflation -- all are detrimental. So, what do the 'powers that be' do if the price of oil ( in dollars ) goes up?

The only solution is to make the dollar 'stronger', or oil more plentiful if one is to keep the status quo. We know there is a boom in oil exploration/resource development now, but that takes time to bring new production on line. We also know a real drop in oil consumption is going on because of SEAsia -- probably minimal. What does one do if you see the US dollar price of oil go up -- for whatever reason, and oil production increases are not sufficient to compensate? You sell something else valuable, such as gold, and by so doing reduce the dollar value of gold, in effect making the dollar stronger. Even better if you can get some other country to sell their gold. Perhaps in return for this, AG was expected to inflate the dollar to keep the rest of the world afloat during our currenct financial crisis.

Selling gold to make the dollar stronger can only be done temporarily if your are a Central Bank, as it will get you through that tight spot until supply demand matters equilibrate. Of course, if the dollar is inflating, and you sell gold, there is no long term compensation effect.

So -- ANOTHER is right, we are selling gold for oil. It is just very convoluted, and temporary only, because the gold eventually runs out. You must eventually face the music, unless the oil production/demand balance can be shifted in the favor of the Western World.

If you are a non-US country, then you must add the exchange effects of your own currency into the above equations, and it is more complicated. but the basic principle still applies, that gold sales ( or loans ) can be used indirectly and temporarily to reduce the cost of oil. Long term, market forces will prevail, and the true cost of oil in dollars will be evident -- with the sellers of gold finding themselves at a disadvantage to those who are buying or keeping gold -- as AG has so eloquently said in his Cato Institute speech -- approx Oct 97.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 23:36 - ID#206358)
SORRY!More bad news from INDONESIA!
The regions currencies set for another slump!Both rm andsin,rupiahs tumble this morning! 1:10350 rupiahs!Imf looks pull them self out ?sooner or later!TIME BOMB!

(Sun Feb 15 1998 23:40 - ID#20137)
Date: Sun Feb 15 1998 23:07
tolerant1 ( all - off topic but I need help ) ID#31868:

Tolerant1, I loved MAC's BUT life has changed and time moves on. Jobs just cut the guts out of Apple's software development arm ( CLARIS ) . Claris exisits no more.

You must buy the systems that have application software support. That means that Gates has won the war and Apple is heading south. Steve is going to end up closing down the Apple he started up. IMHO.

Pick a solid Dell ( ) or gateway model would be my suggestion.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 23:42 - ID#341214)
Prometheus: Y2K
Prometheus: Sorry. I didn't catch your post right away. I "hang out" at two places. One is Gary North's board. The home page is I keep a close eye on his daily additions at The other is Westergaards Y2K board at John Westergaard was the man that brought this subject to the attention of Senator Patrick Moynihan who was mentioned recently by Clinton as the man that got the ball rolling in government circles. Jim Lord's Y2K Tips of the Week at the Westergaard site might be what you are looking for to help cope with that island effect. Try Vronsky's Y2K article at the G0LD EAGLE too. That article gives many of the basics and mentions some other sites to visit.

Just a warning to you. This reading will very likely cause one of two extreme reactions. Either you will say this is the biggest load of horse pucky you ever did read or you will begin to have panic attacks and wake up in the middle of the night thinking about this problem and what it means to your family. I know I did. I have been able to move from that stage to a planning stage. Good luck to you and let me know if there is any other info I can provide.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 23:42 - ID#401460)
Interesting thought, however it is my understanding that everyone could eventually be out of work - including Gold miners.

Who will have any cash to buy Gold. The price of Gold will be high only in respect to depressed currency. I don't know - any help would be appreciated.

I have been trying to reprogram myself in the event that we have deflation. I have been living with the threat of inflation all my life,

I do have memory of my Father living in fear of deflation all of his life and I keep trying to draw on that information. I just have a problem trying to place Gold in that environment.


(Sun Feb 15 1998 23:45 - ID#57232)
I would hope that the IMF would not do something silly like that.
Jin: I hope it was not due to the IMF having sour grapes about the currency board business. I am not aware of any IMF bailout in SEAsia showing a turnaround yet -- so I don't think they should discourage an Indonesian search for a different solution.

Please take care -- it looks like the financial bureaucrats on both sides of the world have not come up with a working solution -- and we are talking about the 4th most populous country in the world. 200 million.

Jin -- be careful.

These financial bureaucrats are in control all over the world -- and the rest of us are pawns. Not good.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 23:50 - ID#57232)
G'Nite all! Nursing a cold -- lots of that this year
Goodnite downunder and upover, and especially for Jin and his family -- near a country just as populous as our United States.

(Sun Feb 15 1998 23:52 - ID#31876)
Colin Seymour Uses Some Of Kitco's Stories..

(Sun Feb 15 1998 23:56 - ID#250251)
Wear on Gold Maples
The use of copper to alloy a coin primarily increases metal hardness so preventing the coin design from becoming damaged by other metal to metal contact. Abrasion resistance of pure Gold is so bad as to preclude its use and little loss of coin mass and therefore intrinsic value will result form continual circulation. I accept that the design features would soon become near unrecognisable. To alloy or not is therefore, IMHO, a matter of pure artistry not monetary consideration.