As you both know, I do not consider anything our news propaganda machine says as gospel. I try to corroborate everthing. I would say the same for any other source of information. Our news media is now controlled by about 5 large organizations, so it is sadly much less free than it was years ago. I am eagerly awaiting the entrance of satellite/cable news from non-US sources for this reason. Have you all seen what 'The Times' and what 'The Economist' have said about Clinton for years? They are better informed than we are. And Pierre Salinger's comments about flight 800? But -- strangely enough this is meeting much resistance. I wonder why?
What I know about Saddam is that years ago our government supported him to counter Iraq, as we have supported other dictators. I do not doubt that he did some good things for his people at that time, in addition to building 60 or so palaces, as well as all of those bunkers,etc. But -- it puzzles me why he is so quick to kill his own family members when they dissent -- such as the one that masterminded his weapons systems during the Kuwair war. He ( and others ) had escaped to Jordan not long ago, and later returned to be with their families in Iraq when they thought they were being allowed to. They were immediately executed. King Hussein of Jordan was incensed by this, and finally withdrew his support of Saddam. You may recall that Jordan was one of the few Arab countries that supported Saddam during the Kuwair war. Hence it says alot if that support is removed. Saddam, like many dictators, is quick to execute his enemies, and any others that threaten him. He does not strike me as someone whom I would want to live next door. But I would not like Kadaffy ( sp? ) , or the Syrian or Irani leaders next door either. Mobarek, and King Hussein of Jordan I respect much more.
What is really serious about this matter is not whether Saddam is truly evil or not, but whether we are dumb enough to attack Saddam unprovoked, as we would be playing into his hands. The really serious matter is that Iran, Syria, Egypt are probably allied with Iraq, and have tired of having Israel's thorn in their side, with US support. The non-Iraq countries in this supposed alliance are not necessarily willing to lie down and let Saddam rule them, but they do admire his stance against the US and Israel. They may thus support Iraq if we blunder, because they dislike Israel more than they fear Saddam.
I hope this explains my stance -- I do not consider myself naive in this matter -- but I am always open to contrary ideas. What amuses me about all of this conversation about whether Saddam is really evil or not - or my naivety - is that it is irrelevant. My conclusions are still the same as all of yours that an unprovoked US attack on Iraq is folly.
Of much maligned intelligence researcher Arthur Jensen:
'True creativity is not evenly equated to intelligence. As Berkeley
Professor Arthur R. Jensen has pointed out:
. . . one should never equate IQ with genius. Very few high-IQ persons ever become geniuses in the genuine sense of making contributions
recognized by the intellectual, scientific, and artistic world as
extraordinarily outstanding. Yet most of the world's geniuses come from
the upper part of the IQ distribution, virtually without exception.
Superior intelligence is a necessary but far from sufficient condition for extraordinary intellectual achievement. The concept of "genius" has no authentic meaning except in terms of achievement. Shakespeare's genius is in his plays. Beethoven's genius is in his symphonies.'
___________________________________________________________________
"Genius the world over stands hand in hand, and one shock
of recognition runs the whole circle round."
- Herman Melville
Hawthorne and His Mosses; 1850
To paraphrase tolerant1/Buckwheat; genius is as genius does.
It is my final and only diploma beyond 12th grade. My poor
wife, my rich kids. Thank you. ( bow ) Clunk.
Out to the blues, on to the road.
My reasoning is that all of this is good for gold. And -- we must not ignore F Veneroso's comment that the gold equilibrium price is $600/oz. Others will notice the shifting opinions of the pros, and begin to invest in gold as well! W Buffet has already started with Silver.
My guess is that only a US market crash will push down gold equities more than 10-20% below their current levels, and gold will never otherwise go below $280/oz. I could be wrong, but I don't think so. But I do agree with you and OldGold that gold will remain weak during the Iraq confrontation unless there is a major screwup. As long as the public perceives the US as having the current winning hand in the ME, gold will languish. IMHO.
To Jakko & Jack: I think my first line answers your question.
To FundaMETAList: A VB app to mine the info would be great. ZIP files are good idea but they still need to get from point A to point B. There may also be a bigger demand for them than the live data. We may test it out to see the net bandwidth savings.
WetGold & Trinovant: Buying PMs from Kitco instead of a monthly charge for "full text" access sounds great in theory. To administer such a program would be major headache. Itd be easier to offer special discounts on products to existing subscribers.
To 223 about the conversion thing. http://www.kitco.com/gold.conversion.html can be used as another source to confirm the info thats already been posted. And you thought we were just a gold quote/discussion group company.
Myrmidon and All: Good quality on-topic posts are the objectives of this site. Theres no shortage of them, but lately there seems to be a lot more chaff than wheat. I have no interest in having Kitco play host to a group who want to clog the airways with history , middle east politics, and white house gossip. If theres any threat to this group disintegrating, its not a pay-to-view policy, but the constant bombardment of off-topic posts that waste bandwidth and turn people away.
Good luck with the markets -- I have learned much from your posts. I hope you will continue to post, even after Bart charges us for full use, because we need contrarian posters who are equally confortable in bull or bear markets. I also hope RJ will stick around to counter the perpetual gold bug bulls.
I agree that the non-gold stuff has gotten too extensive -- but I don't know how we draw the line between non-gold and relevant, and too much non-gold and relevant ( the latter being less relevant ) .
Extensive historical discussions should be specifically limited to precsious metals themselves, or momentous events known to cause major disruptions in precious metals prices.
If Indonesia succeeds with the currency board, this may be the turning point in the US dollar that we all expect -- and SEAsia moves away from the US dollar as their currency. We all know that the move is most likely to occur in the part of the world hardest hit by the cuirrency crisis. I wonder, is Steve Hanke talking to any other SEAsian countries, and is that 'taking billions out of the economy' statement by Mark Mallock Brown, a World Bank vice president, in reference to Indonesia, or the world banking community?
We know the switch to a currency board -- or even more frightening -- a switch to a gold-backed currency is coming. The world banking community either doesn't understand this, or doesn't want to understand it. Sad, isn't it? At least AG understands this, as we learned in his October 97 speech to the CATO society.
More importantly, I hope you and your family are safe. Hope all is well.
http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/98/02/14/washington_dateline_general_news/usclinton_3.html
Now, most of the xxxgate news on our local paper is anti-Clinton, or neutral. Pro-Clinton stuff is now in the minority.
The storm clouds are rising -- I wonder how much longer the market bull will last, with the press now catching up on about 5 years worth of suppressed news.
Does anyone know how long it took for markets to react to Watergate, after the press feeding frenzy began? I don't know if those markets were in a rally at that time or not -- those were the pre 1980 inflation years, but as I recall the market was not in a solid bear.
It won't be long before someone posts a voice recording of BC talking to Monica on the Web.
And, Chinese denials of devaluation are increasing in frequency. Anything about South America?
I get the feeling that the next wave of the currency tsunami is about to hit India, ?Russia, ?South America -- enough to stall the US market rally well before it reaches DOW 10,000. I will be watching the US dollar very closely for any signs of weakness, as this may be a good early warning that the US equity markets are in trouble.
I currently have 1/2 of my cash in goldstocks, defense, and oil. I think they will do well as long as the US markets hang together. I am not capable of investing in this current general equity bull market -- no matter how good it looks or does. I guess I'm too much of a gold bug ( contrarian ) at heart.
It will take alot to bring down our equities market, but the forces that could do it are gathering. XXXgate may take months, but trouble in the Mideast ( though unlikely ) could be alot sooner.
Your comment about making Iraq an ally to counter Iran is interesting. After all of the US screwups in Iraq, I doubt we have few loyal supporters left.
That's why Saddam has a 'clean' nerve gas ( for Israel,I guess ) -- one does not automatically escalate to WMD, or the consequences would be incalculable.
If you have some time, try figuring out if a form of radiation that bathes us in nearly all directions can still give the inverse square law of gravity -- if you assume, for example that the moon shadows some of that radiation, so it is pushed toward the earth. So far, the essence of gravity has escaped the understanding of Physicists, but with gravity modification experiments such as the Tampere study by Podkletnov, a dim understanding of the quantum nature of gravity is being unveiled.
We will have many new discoveries such as this, I believe, as we slowly realize that quantum mechanics and particle physics apply on a macroscopic scale - supposedly explained only by 'Classical' Physics. That 'Blacklight' alternative energy site suggests the opposite as well -- that certain aspects of Classical physics applies on a microscopic scale - I can't find anything to indicate that there is anything wrong with the theory presented -- which may explain 'Cold Fusion'.
We will have alot to look forward to in the next century if we can keep from ruining our economic systems, or from blowing each other up!
"We may see the capitalist system collapse some time between 2007 and 2015 and that the only currency worth owning will be precious metals
One more fundamental grounds, what really matters is the mass of experimental data accumulated over the years -- not whether General Relativity gives all the answers. We may find that the quantum gravity model means that Einsteins work needs to be modified. You cannot blame Einstein -- he only had the experimental data of the time -- an then he extrapolated. It never ceases to amaze me how he came up with general Relativity with so little actual data, and it has held up so well.
Did you know Einstein considered his work a failure, as he was not able to come up with a theory of everything? So his grand theory was incomplete. He knew there was something missing.
By the way, Einstein assumed the speed of light was constant -- a reasonable assumption in his time, given Michelson's work. Perhaps it is not. For example, the speed of light in a diamond is less than 1/2 of what it is in a vacuum.
sam: You are right -- it is unfortunate that science is not taken as seriously in our schools as it once was. It seems that the only thing American children are learning with any expeetise is how to work with computers. And -- this is not really from school anyway.
Now gold/dollar/oil are now 'floating', even if gold and oil are priced in dollars, and most worldwide derivatives trades relating to gold and oil are based in dollars. Those countries that peg their currency to the US dollar watch their price of oil and gold fluctuate just due to dollar fluctuations, and the realative price of oil vs gold is not fully floating either -- it has a tendency to cycle above and below equilibrium, with a relaxation time that derivatives experts undoubtedly know.
What is really important, however, is that oil must be 'cheap' for the Western world to maintain their economies, since oil is essential to so many parts of our economy. So, anything that causes the price of oil to go up -- a relative shortage, war, inflation -- all are detrimental. So, what do the 'powers that be' do if the price of oil ( in dollars ) goes up?
The only solution is to make the dollar 'stronger', or oil more plentiful if one is to keep the status quo. We know there is a boom in oil exploration/resource development now, but that takes time to bring new production on line. We also know a real drop in oil consumption is going on because of SEAsia -- probably minimal. What does one do if you see the US dollar price of oil go up -- for whatever reason, and oil production increases are not sufficient to compensate? You sell something else valuable, such as gold, and by so doing reduce the dollar value of gold, in effect making the dollar stronger. Even better if you can get some other country to sell their gold. Perhaps in return for this, AG was expected to inflate the dollar to keep the rest of the world afloat during our currenct financial crisis.
Selling gold to make the dollar stronger can only be done temporarily if your are a Central Bank, as it will get you through that tight spot until supply demand matters equilibrate. Of course, if the dollar is inflating, and you sell gold, there is no long term compensation effect.
So -- ANOTHER is right, we are selling gold for oil. It is just very convoluted, and temporary only, because the gold eventually runs out. You must eventually face the music, unless the oil production/demand balance can be shifted in the favor of the Western World.
If you are a non-US country, then you must add the exchange effects of your own currency into the above equations, and it is more complicated. but the basic principle still applies, that gold sales ( or loans ) can be used indirectly and temporarily to reduce the cost of oil. Long term, market forces will prevail, and the true cost of oil in dollars will be evident -- with the sellers of gold finding themselves at a disadvantage to those who are buying or keeping gold -- as AG has so eloquently said in his Cato Institute speech -- approx Oct 97.
Please take care -- it looks like the financial bureaucrats on both sides of the world have not come up with a working solution -- and we are talking about the 4th most populous country in the world. 200 million.
Jin -- be careful.
These financial bureaucrats are in control all over the world -- and the rest of us are pawns. Not good.
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Copyright © 1996 Kitco Minerals & Metals Inc.
http://www.middleeast.org/MERDEC10.htm
Since our government admits to killing 100,000 in the air war of '90-'91, and this time they intend to do it "better", maybe I should have said hundreds instead of scores of thousands. Look, I know its gonna be done, no matter what I or anyone else says. But at least I have a clear conscience, since I have stated loudly and clearly that it is not for me or for mine that it is to be done. No one can stop it. The "POWER" wills it. When a man who fought in the Israeli army, and was not even a citizen of the U.S. when Bill Klinton became President is now the Ass't. Secretary of State for mid-east affairs for the U.S.A., the Arabs dont have much chance. At least we can take some solace in the fact that the markets are saying WE wont take many casualties. My conscience being now clear on the subject, I shall not address it again.