Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 00:14 - ID#153102)
I think Tolerant1 thinks ANOTHER does not know about the GREEN MACHINE. But, I think he does.
I don't understand your post.
The greenback spelled the end of capitalism in the USA, but because the debt from 1860-65 was rolled over and over and a Central Bank was created in 1913, it was not obvious until 1933. And then obvious only to some. From the period of 1860-65 the corporation became progressively less of a legal entity for investment and more an instumentality of government, although that fact has never been recognized by an American court.

The events you posted a slice of the continual contest between the States and the federal over the bank chartering power which commenced after ratification of the Constitution. After 1860-65, the contest was over.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 00:18 - ID#372344)
@South African Gold Mines suspend lay-offs of miners, after they threaten to strike...

(Wed Feb 18 1998 00:29 - ID#286230)
Auric: I hope he thinks we do.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 00:33 - ID#28585)
If you think Canadians are dejected about losing the Olympic women's hockey team gold, then imagine how they feel about this....

Wednesday, February 18, 1998

$6.6B meltdown

Ontario Hydro takes biggest writedown in Canadian history

Energy Utilities Reporter The Financial Post
Ontario Hydro is technically bankrupt after taking a $6.6-billion writedown yesterday, the largest in Canadian
corporate history.
And it may not be over. Billions more in writeoffs could be in store depending on whether the Hydro board
decides to permanently close some nuclear reactors or reopen them later, chief financial officer Eleanor Clitheroe
Under the current nuclear recovery plan, all the closed reactors will eventually return to service. If they stay
closed it could result in an additional $3 billion in writedowns, she said.
An independent report on the division found its nuclear plants operated at minimum safety levels. The Hydro
board decided in August to close seven of 19 reactors at an estimated cost of $5 billion to $8 billion.
"When we announced the overhaul of our nuclear assets last August, the financial implications of this decision
were expected to be significant," Hydro chairman Bill Farlinger said in a prepared statement yesterday.
"These are expenditures that should have been made in the past."
Hydro's 1997 income before the writedown was $254 million on total revenue of $8.9 billion. The net loss is
$6.3 billion.
Hydro's total debt stands at $31.1 billion, and the writedown puts the country's largest utility into a negative
equity position at minus $4.5 billion.
"In street parlance, they're bankrupt," said an electricity industry expert who asked not to be named. "If they
were a privately held corporation, they would technically be bankrupt."
Ontario Hydro cannot in fact become
bankrupt because as a Crown corporation
its debt is guaranteed by the Ontario
The decision to take the writedown was
made at a Hydro board meeting yesterday
with Farlinger as acting president. New
president Ron Osborne, former president of
Bell Canada, takes over March 2. Hydro's
former president Al Kupcis resigned in
August with the release of the nuclear
Osborne may have demanded a writedown
representing all the nuclear problems of the
past as a condition of taking the job, the
expert said. "They've taken all the nuclear
skeletons and cleaned them up at once."
The previous record for a corporate
writedown was also held by Ontario
Hydro, which wrote off $3.6 billion for restructuring charges in 1993.
"Hydro gets the gold medal for financial wipe-out and it also gets the silver medal," said Tom Adams of Energy
Probe, a public interest group.
Yesterday's announcement is another instalment in the continuing financial disaster at Hydro's nuclear division,
Adams said. "The nuclear program has bankrupted the company."
Clitheroe said the writedown will be charged against retained earnings and debt will be maintained at about $32
The cost of the August decision has now been pegged at $4.6 billion, including $2.3 billion to increase
production at fossil fuel generating stations.
Adding to the writedown total is about $1 billion in other nuclear-related costs such as reactor decommissioning
and used-fuel disposal. The non-nuclear portion of the writedown amounts to $977 million and includes a
$50-million charge for costs related to the January 1998 ice storm.
Four reactors at the Pickering generating station and one at the Bruce generating station near Kincardine, Ont.,
are already closed. Hydro is considering keeping open two reactors at the Bruce station that are now slated for
The decision to take the writedown now comes out of the blue. The Financial Post obtained Hydro's yearend
financial report earlier this month, which projected writeoffs totalling only $140 million.
Despite the unexpected news, Hydro said it will maintain a pledge to freeze rates.
Brian LeGrow, spokesman for provincial Energy Minister Jim Wilson, said the development proves the need
for a competitive electricity market, which the government plans to implement by 2000. "This action shows the
status quo doesn't work."

(Wed Feb 18 1998 00:35 - ID#28585)
Read my previous post.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 00:36 - ID#197309)
Big differnce?
just logged on and noticed the big swings in pog?probably just the
bid and ask price? that green flashing up there looks good
but it doesn't stay for long,oh well off for now.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 00:38 - ID#28585)
But who guarantees the Ontario gov't's losses?
( Read 00:33 post )

More trouble ahead for the Canadian dollar????

(Wed Feb 18 1998 00:39 - ID#330175)
Canadian Power

(Wed Feb 18 1998 00:41 - ID#330175)
Hockey..........................................April Gold down a buck
Let's kick some 'Czech Butt'~~~~~~

(Wed Feb 18 1998 00:44 - ID#250121)
Is nothing exempt from your scrutiny? Alright, I confess, from ONE to ANOTHER, I leave the cap locks on SOMETIMES.

Thanks for the beautiful Tiriti of Waitangi 1/2 oz. It really is a finely minted bullion coin. The detail on the "silver" fern and the kiwi feathers is wondrous. And with a "face" value of $150, provides a downside cushion. Let's hope we don't need it!
I spoke to our Reserve Bank today, looking for ANOTHER coin, and was told there were none left. So I asked "How much gold have you got in the vault to back our currency?".
"None." Said someone in 'currency'
"What's our currency backed by?"
"Good question, I don't know."

Gonna get back on the job tomorrow, a few more Qs, Change the Perception and tweak some noses too.


(Wed Feb 18 1998 00:45 - ID#286230)
farfel: No Problem. Quebec separates but must take Ontario Hydro with them.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 00:46 - ID#197309)
1.50 spikes?
yes I'm still here this place is not that easy to leave.
clicked on the pog chart to the left and noticed that on
the open in hong kong two big spikes up and down,and again
just now?What is it a thin market or maybe somebody just
wants the gold and isn't going to sweat the 1.50;hm straight up atraight down?final goodbye for now

John Disney__A
(Wed Feb 18 1998 00:55 - ID#24135)
GW .. are you happy with this explanation??
for GW ..
Maybe what you say is correct and abx sold forward
as you suggest .. But I dont understand HOW. The HIGHEST
effective gold price since 1991 was 410. The highest
price in 1997 was 360. How did they average 410 in
revenue for 1997?? If they could sell forward at 410,
why not sell forward at 1000 ?? Who's counting.
My point is SOMEBODYS got to be on the other side
of that transaction and it is BIG. Its not just a bunch
of paper with numbers on it. Its their REVENUE!!
Im sorry and maybe I dont understand this ( I KNOW THAT )
but I feel your explanation is a tad superficial and
I am totally unpersuaded. I think there is a lot more
to this and I have no idea what it is.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 00:59 - ID#250121)
Dweeb, me.
Um, how do I see frames version now folks?

G'day. When I wasn't being ignored by the Marlin I was watching pods of dolphins, both the common dolphin and the rarer Blue Nose dolphin gambol and play around the catamaran. One pod of common, must've contained 500+ of these marvellous mammals who don't make war.


(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:03 - ID#372344)
@ Gold.....JTF.....
Goldfields update Report on supply/demand shows "mobilization"
of some 800 tons of Gold in 1997, as part of the difference between
1996-1997 gold fabrication use taken off the markets, in addition
reports of acute shortages of refined bars. Take away this Gold
mobilization, and increasing demand from India and Mid-East
and we could have a run away Gold market.... Quotes LBMA. You stated would not go broke. In the 70's
The London Gold Pool went broke, just before Gold took off......

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:05 - ID#287207)
John Disney: From the look of the earlier posts it could be that Barrick is selling to Ontario Hydro.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:05 - ID#28585)
Just FYI.

P.S. Ergo, the company will have little upside when gold rises above this price someday.

( my rodentous friend ) .

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:06 - ID#153102)
1. Have you accounted for the fact futures contracts written years forward may not appear on the price data. I mean usually the price data is accummulated on a month when it becomes the trading month.

2. Do you see the same revenue mystery in S.A. mining stock reports ?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:07 - ID#28585)
@SELBY...YOU FIGURED OUT, DAMMIT!!'re not supposed to tell anybone!!!!!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:10 - ID#28585)
They are spending billions trying to figure out how to generate electricity from melting gold....

( Now you know who bought most of Canada's gold reserves! )

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:11 - ID#153102)
What is mobilisation of gold ?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:12 - ID#287207)
Buffett: may have put his foot in it.

John Disney__A
(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:13 - ID#24135)
"another" is "someone" but not just "anybody"
For Midas.. Thanks for your advice on the Devil.. I
would add "the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was
convincing the World he didn't exist". Virgil Kent
"the man with the plan" said it in "Usual Suspects".
I am almost certain that salty is "another" but
then maybe "another" is Keyser Soyse. Maybe there is
more than one "another" .. you know like "another

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:14 - ID#255151)
John Disney

How much Gold,in $US terms, has been sold forward? My reading here at Kitco says anywhere from 5,000 to 10,000 tons. If my math is correct, that represents somewhere around $100 Billion. Now who are those folks that Mr. Munk et al. are selling to, and what are they doing with that money?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:15 - ID#250121)
MOOG, mate, the Price of gold is like a MOOG Synthesiser,sounds good, but don't hold up to scrutiny
We're playing with mirrors, string, electronic synthesisers and a tissue of lies.

Recall that the IMF values gold in its reserves at one price. ( laziness prevents me from finding it ) The BIS values it at a different price in its reserves, the US FedRes uses yet a different value.

We have no idea of the price of the trades on the LBMA, yet there are "true" open markets at Comex and Tocom.

ANOTHER has mentioned this anomaly in his posts. He says there are different values put on gold, not just in US$. But also in relation to Oil. ( One could ask oneself, is there a gold price of rice? )

We know that only a lunatic or a sage would pay the $410 forward price that Barrick's and others have established, when spot has been so much less.

Somewhere in this crazy miasma, we have to hold several inconsistant beliefs simultaneously:

( a ) there is one price of gold
( b ) there is more than one price of gold
( c ) gold is priced in US$
( d ) the US$ price of gold may have no relation to the value of gold in ANOTHER commodity
( e ) CBs, and Supra CBs ( IMF & BIS ) all value/price gold inconsistantly.

This is a job for the synthesising JTF.


(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:18 - ID#28585)
Selby, now that Wall Street saw what "the Buffett Effect" can do to silver, they are bound to use the it to prop up all these dog companies ( like Nike ) trading at 40 times P/E and better.

Next time the market starts to crash, the Wall Street gang will make plentiful announcements how WB is buying into the various collapsing stocks. Eventually, when the "Buffett Effect" ceases to work its magic ( after all, even gullible mutual fund investors can only swallow so much B.S. ) , then expect Wall Street to make frequent, adamant announcements that Jesus Christ is actively involved in supporting the market.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:18 - ID#335190)
Mozel @ 00:14
Date: Wed Feb 18 1998 00:14 mozel ( @6Pak ) ID#153102:

GREEN MACHINE. I expect you are referencing the T/D Bank.

"The **greenback** spelled the end of **capitalism** in the USA"
Is this in regards to the Greenback Party ( 1873 ) organized by Midwesterners claims that a shortage of money is the cause of hard times.
If government will issue greenbacks, the country will again enjoy prosperity as in 1865. The Greenbackers also demanded control of the Corporations - Honesty in Government - Conservation of resources.

***How was the Greenback a cause of Capitalism ending? My take on Capitalism, is a docrine of Economics, like Communism, is a docrine of Economics.

I like Entrepreneur as a description of business. Not, Corporation, or Capitalism. Am I to understand, you are of the same view?

"1860-65 the corporation became progressively less of a legal entity for investment and more an instumentality of government,"

I expect that you may be considering this as a view that Capitalism and Communism are Economic terms. Should this not be the case, then I do not understand.

( The World Wars caused most Multi-National Corporations to be instruments of Government, to unify production for the war effort. Corporations liked it so much, for them the wars have never ended )

"The events you posted a slice of the continual contest between the States and the federal over the bank chartering power"

In 1841 USofA Congress and the House of Representatives and the Senate, demanded that the then President Tyler sign a Bill to establish a Central Bank.He vetoed the bill.

How is such an act of veto by the Federal Government, ( President ) in conflict with the States.? All the Elected representatives from the various States were in fact, supporting such central banking control.

Yes, the Federal Reserve Corporation was established in 1913, by an Act of Congress. I suggest the true contest is about to begin regarding the Central Bank Corporations Control, of the Economic well being of a Nation. I suggest Asia is the point of reference 1998 style.

The Bankers being killed or fired 1998 - I was using Harrison as a USofA President that lasted one ( 1 ) month in office and he caught the flu and died.

The timing was when the Banking interests were demanding a central bank.And his remarks about the USofA Constitution, and GOLD, and POWER.

I quess I didn't present it properly eh! Oh well!

Thanks Take Care.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:22 - ID#330175)
Aurator $$$$$$$$$$$
G'Day Mate!!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:24 - ID#330175)
Hockey(1st intermission)=more interesting than gold these days
USA 1 Czech 0~~~~~~~

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:25 - ID#401460)
You said:
"then expect Wall Street to make frequent, adamant announcements that Jesus Christ is actively involved in supporting the market."

People always wait till they hit bottom before they call on the Him.


(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:25 - ID#287207)
farfel: I'm sure that Wall Street will report that Buffett is supporting the market regardless of the nom de plume he chooses.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:26 - ID#250121)
G'day old buddy. Gotta go offline for time with BJ.

back in a bit.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:27 - ID#401460)

correction its
Him or The Man


(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:27 - ID#372344)
@ Gold 'mobilization"
According to the Goldfields report, and the USA article I posted
it includes:
1. Official Sector Sales ( CB )
2.Forward Sales
3.Position Hedging

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:30 - ID#28585)
For those cynics out there that thought the game was over for old Pegasus gold, my sources tell me that they are about to make a bid for Ontario Hydro.

Apparently, Pegasus is willing to pay a hefty premium for the utility. My sources tell me that PGU is considering an ALL CASH OFFER of ONE BUCK!!!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:32 - ID#287207)
Speaking as an Ontario Taxpayer
Farfel: Sold. And good night.

John Disney__A
(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:34 - ID#24135)
I think Im going back to bed.
For Farfel
My underarm buddy.. gold peaked at a little over 410
in February 1996. How smart can you be to sell forward
for all of 1997 at that price.. and how stupid to go
the other way ..
for Selby
Good one
for Mozel
Actually I can account for very little of anything.
RSA revenues reflect forward sales too.. not this
big time however.
for Silverbaron
RE CAM .. Business Day shows earnings yield of 38
per cent .. Its under mining holdings.. I will revert
when I get some info.
For Auric ..
I cant answer that question because I think I
asked that question.
for Glenn ..
Please stop saying that gold is going Down. That
is unless your SAYING that it is going down will
make it go UP

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:36 - ID#393224)
Gold selling for less than spot
G'day all.
You are very welcome Auracious. Most Canberra Mint proof coins are beauties--but that one is something special. Have kept one for myself. Would be interested in hearing what N.Z.s gold reserves are,any gold sales? and comparison to devaluation of N.Z. currency.

Aussie gold shares correcting nicely. Down about 1% today. Most penny dreads held up well. Noticed that the XAU took a hit -- down 4%+. Why are you Yanks/Rebs/Canucks panicking?? This is a very normal correction of a good rise. Anyone wanting to get in on silver cheaply just starts a rumour--"Warren is selling!!" and voila--40 cent discount on yer purchase.

Something JIN said the other day is bothering me. My translation is that there were so many gold sellers that prices were quite a bit below spot. In a panic, folks, gold may not be worth the price of gold!!! JIN--tell us more about gold prices where you live.

G'day Ted-- 2nd period starting as I type. How 'live' am I??

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:38 - ID#153102)
@TZ thanks for the goldfields link at usagold
I see "mobilization" is a fancy word for CB sales and "reserve sterilization" would be another fancy phrase for having nothing but gold as reserves.

One thing for sure about ANOTHER: his insistence that the Mid-East buyers want gold is validated by the report posted at usagold: latest annual demand 640 tons, I think, 25% of the whole world's production for a year.

That kind of contradicts comments deriding the Mid-East pyramid of gold.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:40 - ID#401460)
Gold Up 2nd 1/2 1998

Wednesday February 18, 1:09 am Eastern Time

Gold price to rise later in 1998 - Macquarie Bank

By Michael Byrnes

SYDNEY, Feb 18 ( Reuters ) - Gold prices will languish until mid-1998 before tracking higher later in the year, according to an industry report by brokerage firm Macquarie Equities Ltd.

The broker is part of the Macquarie Bank Ltd ( MBL.AX ) group, which is Australia's biggest bullion dealer. It conducts 25 percent of the world's gold hedging through its joint-venture with South Africa's Standard Bank ( SBCJ.J ) .

The negative factors which had sent the price plummeting would most likely wane throughout the year. ``Sentiment will turn slowly back in favour of the yellow metal,'' Macquarie Equities said.

It atttibuted the fall in the gold price to its lowest level in 18 years to fears of further central bank sales, low inflationary expectations, a strong U.S. dollar, gold ``dishoarding'' in Southeast Asia, and a lagged response from mined gold production to lower prices.

The low point of the price cycle would be reached in the first half of 1998, with a modest improvement in the second half of 1998, Macquarie said.

Gold was trading at about US$297.50 an ounce in Asia on Wednesday, 35 U.S. cents below the overnight New York close.

Macquarie sees the gold price trading in a band between US$280.00 and US$300.00 an ounce in the first six months of 1998 then breaking out to above US$300.00 in the second half.

This is seen producing an average price of US$290 an ounce for the full 1998, and US$350 an ounce by 2001.

The gold price would be supported medium-term as inflation risks reappeared, the U.S. dollar weakened and mine and market rationalisations occurred, Macquarie said.

In the longer-term, a weakening of the U.S. dollar, continued mine closures and market rationalisation were forecast to provide further support to the market.

``Into the next century, price appreciation will continue steadily, although not dramatically, as Asia rebounds from its decline and inflation risk reappears,'' Macquarie said.

That gold did not fall further in 1997 indicated that downward momentum was easing, it said.

Central bank gold holdings were far more likely to be released into the market now than at any time since the gold standard was introduced and gold prices would only begin to appreciate when the market had adjusted to the increased presence of central banks.

Central bank total gold reserves of about 28,000 tonnes compared with annual mined gold production of about 2,400 tonnes.

``Central banks are not expected to dump their gold holdings but to gradually reduce them,'' it said.

The planned formation of the European Central Bank in January 1999 sharpened the focus on the potential mobilisation of the 14,000 tonnes of gold held by European central banks.

Whatever decisions were taken on this, they would eliminate one element of uncertainty from the market, it said.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:44 - ID#255151)
John Disney

And a good question it is. If the answer can be found, then our purses will be fattened!

John Disney__A
(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:45 - ID#24135)
Salty .. You are a Beauty
For salty
Holding.. several inconsistent beliefs simultaneouly..
But I do that ALL THE TIME... no problem mate.. she'll
be right.. now I UNDERSTAND.
In zen I think they call this a ko'an ( ??? ) .. and a
bit of Tibetan temple music on the hifi set ( slice
of pickle.. jug of vodka ) and we're home and hosed.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:47 - ID#153102)
This is starting to make a little sense possibly.
It seems the difference between N.A. mine forward sales and S.A. mine smaller forward sale revenues is indirect evidence of inside political information to N.A. mine operators.

Like look who is on the Board of Directors ???

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:49 - ID#28585)
02/18/98...the date is double chai...does not occur very often...often associated with radical change in world affairs and the status quo.

You must always add the last digits of the date: 2 plus 8 plus 8 = 18.

Ergo, you have two 18's ( double chai ) in today's date.

Ominous...very ominous.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 01:58 - ID#28585)
It's late and I'm kicking back with a little drinkie and I want to hear more of your "unusual" theories about life.

Where are you??

(Wed Feb 18 1998 02:00 - ID#372344)
@ Gold Demand Info...Saudi "brides" spend avg. $32,000 on Gold for wedding....
Also Germans and Russians buy 24K Gold.....SE Asians will"buy back"
Gold jewelry they sold to and when Economies recover....
And some interesting SA marketing suggestion for Gold....

(Wed Feb 18 1998 02:05 - ID#250121)
tola me a taele or two
Your last post jogged a memory. A coin dealer I bore to death phoned me up yesterday, her hubby on way back from airport with a small mound of 10 tola bars just bought in Hong Kong. Asking Spot +5%. Did I want any? Point of this post is: usually gold leaves NZ. Sovs, mapes, etc are picked up by Asians going home. Here is a reverse trade. Is there some Asian dumping?
Is rather small potatoes in scheme of things...

(Wed Feb 18 1998 02:09 - ID#401460)

Let's get this show on the road! How about $300+ This is becoming old stuff $297-$299.99
Better than $270, BUT $400 would be even better.


good night

(Wed Feb 18 1998 02:15 - ID#330175)
2nd intermission
Czech 3 USA 1~~~~~~~

(Wed Feb 18 1998 02:17 - ID#330175)
April Gold down .60(YAWN)
same old-same old

(Wed Feb 18 1998 02:21 - ID#22956)
Hey Crockies....
What's with all the spikes over there??!?
hmmmmmmmm...up or down. I'm gettin dizzy watching. Sloooooow down! jump off the teeter-totter

(Wed Feb 18 1998 02:24 - ID#22956)
Ted...........and how was Sydney?
You aren't gonna stay up till the wee hours again, eh? For a bunch of overpaid LOSERS?? phewie! Now, hit the hay! Diddly-dard-burnit!!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 02:27 - ID#330175)
EB-------Sydney Suked
Just lie 'my boys' are doin t'nite ( dooooooooh ) --oh yeah,*go gold* and by-the-way,yer e-mails are still bouncin back in me face ( ouch )

(Wed Feb 18 1998 02:28 - ID#330175)
Bad times in Thailand(almost as bad as Cape
Vehicle imports
down by 85%

Thailand's imports of completely built-up ( CBU ) vehicles
dropped sharply by 85.21% in January, compared to the same
month the previous year, according to customs officials.

CBUs imported in January totalled 355, down from 2,401 in the
same month in 1997.

The tariffs collected from CBUs imported in January fell by
958.51 million baht, or 79.22%, to 251.40 million baht from
1,209.91 million baht in the same month of last year.

Of total imports in January, 311 were from Europe, 38 from the
United States, five from Japan and one from India, said the

Those imported from Europe included 284 from Volkswagen,
16 from Chrysler, nine from Mercedes-Benz and two from Ford
while those from the United States included 37 Chrysler and one

Five came from Toyota of Japan and one Mercedes-Benz came
from India.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 02:39 - ID#330175)
On the other hand
Maybe we ( Uncle Sammy ) should bomb the Czech Republic instead of Iraq~~~~

(Wed Feb 18 1998 02:41 - ID#393224)
Ted--Yanks can't put that ice cube in the net, mate. Jeez, EB-- I'd hate to sit on that gold chart.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 02:43 - ID#22956)
Emails.....damn ISP
I don't know what is up Ted. I am getting emails from other people. Even from Kitco so it doesn't seem to be a Canadian thing. I am lookin into it. I have been waiting for your latest brilliant chart technicals only to find out I have been getting denied. sonofagun...ho hum. search through cyer space for Ted's brilliance

(Wed Feb 18 1998 02:44 - ID#153102)
@6Pak : Confusion Reigns
GREEN MACHINE. I expect you are referencing the T/D Bank.

|| No, that was accidentally included from a previous post to T1. The phrase refers ( for me ) to the US commercial empire.

"The **greenback** spelled the end of **capitalism** in the USA"
Is this in regards to the Greenback Party ( 1873 ) organized by
Midwesterners claims that a shortage of money is the cause of hard
If government will issue greenbacks, the country will again enjoy
prosperity as in 1865. The Greenbackers also demanded control of the
Corporations - Honesty in Government - Conservation of resources.

|| No. This was obviously a party of primitive or non-doctrinal socialists.
Like something a 19th century Ralph Nader put together.

***How was the Greenback a cause of Capitalism ending?

|| Printed paper is not capital. The greenback was not backed by anything but green ink.

My take on
Capitalism, is a docrine of Economics, like Communism, is a docrine of
I like Entrepreneur as a description of business. Not, Corporation, or
Capitalism. Am I to understand, you are of the same view?

|| "doctrine of Economics" sounds ecclesiastical to me. For me it's simple. There are no capitalists without gold and silver coin in circulation as money. But there can be corporate socialists.

It appears there is too great a disparity between our vocabularies to have much useful or interesting communication.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 02:48 - ID#330175)
EB----------just tried a re-mail from Cape Bombed-out
Must be my worthless ISP again.... ( EH ) ...Re-Canuckie R.E. money: Out of the 100,000 ( the gov'ment still has 50 g's ) ) I only wired 99,925 to the 'states' ( had to keep 75 LOONIES in the account ta keep it USA ( YOU BUMS! )

John Disney__A
(Wed Feb 18 1998 02:52 - ID#24135)
We need a good shamus on dis caper
For Mozel
The idea of inside info on ABX forward sales
at the top in early 1996 is very hard to get

(Wed Feb 18 1998 02:52 - ID#393224)
Ted-- about bloody time they had an olympics in the right time zone. It's just short of 7 pm here. I wouldn't wanna look at your ugly mug tomorrow morning. Harr harr. Give yer missus a big hug, mate. She deserves it!!

EB-- Ted's 'brilliance'??

(Wed Feb 18 1998 02:58 - ID#22956)
night. take good care of gold.
countingsheep ( i said counting, Nick, not.... )

(Wed Feb 18 1998 03:03 - ID#253228)
Gold shares down into late April
A short time back someone posted a comment by Jim Blanchard to the effect that there is 40 years supply of gold mined and in some above ground form. The point was that if some other commodity had 40 years supply lying around the price would be near $0. His conclusion was that gold does have a monitary identity which makes us hold it and value it above it's industrial use.

I agree with this logic; additionally it tells me that the price of gold is really the result of mass psychology. The current year supply and demand numbers are it seems then almost irrelevant. What matters is what is in people's heads including the heads of CB's.

My point is then that methods that indirectly determine mass pshchology like cycles and Elliot Wave have a better chance of judging the future than supply/demand statistics.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 03:07 - ID#153102)
If more indirect evidence surfaces in the form of known politically or governmentally connected figures who are also known associates of N.A. mine operators, it suggests indeed that we were witness to a performance in Davos. Now, who was the intended audience ?

Maybe we ought to review the public record.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 03:12 - ID#393224)
Stay in yer hotel room
Aussies just warned on the news to 'avoid crowds and public transport if visiting Indonesia'. Extremely volatile.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 03:31 - ID#393224)
Bomb delay
UN Secretary General has just delayed the bombing for a week by announcing a visit to Bahgdad this weekend. Hope they have some good videos on the carriers, as it looks like they'll have to wait 'til next week. Can't imagine that Iraq hasn't hidden away everything of strategic value ( especially the biological and chemical agents ) by now and dispersed the Republican Guard. The US will be bombing a bunch or empty buildings and decoys, with a bit of collateral ( civilian ) damage before they claim a great victory. Great sneak attack, this. Should boost BC's ratings even more as Americans rally 'round the flag. However, the best laid plans of mice and men........

(Wed Feb 18 1998 03:36 - ID#153102)
You would not believe what they can see with the eye in the sky.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 03:41 - ID#351224)
Ontario Hydro
Is Maurice Strong still chairman of Ontario Hydro?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 04:15 - ID#153102)
Speaking mushroom to mushroom, this ain't so hard to figure out after all. Right there on the Board of Barrick with Mr. Peter Munk is Mr CIA himself George H. Bush and Sen. Howard Baker and none other than the recently famoused Vernon Jordan.

Now, if anybody in the world knew that the U.S. agreed in connection with Desert Storm to manage down the price of gold, it was G H Bush. And do you want to bet that these boys didn't know when the Bre-X charade that Barrick lent respectability to was topped out, also. Greedy, greedy, greedy. I wonder if that boy is on the board of Bershire Hathaway, too ?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 04:17 - ID#257148)
It ain't what you do, it's the way that you do it...
Yeah, you'd think so. I mean, part of being human is looking for patterns, for certainty. That's why so many here go for the certainty of a book ( The Bible, Nostrodamus, Elliot, TA, ChartMeEasy ) or an easy way of though......Perhaps. just perhaps, this ever-lovin golden world has no pattern, has no certainty. And the persuit of certainty is the ultimate irony. If life is irony, God is an iron.


You might be interested on this loverly little job on Elliot, Gann, Carolan, ( never heard of the Spiral Calendar? -- I wasted a good few weeks/lunar~months of brain-sweat on that one ) , and even ol Mr Fibo Natzi gets his...

Fibonacci, Schmibonacci at

Oh, Dear, what can the matter be?
All our theories have gone down the lavatory
They'll be printin from Monday to Saturday
Dow is going to the Moo~oon,
Dow is going to the moooooon.

Wondering how I can bribe the village idiot.

Any ideas anyone?


(Wed Feb 18 1998 04:20 - ID#257148)
um. that last post, ya know,
where though is an incompleted thought

John Disney__A
(Wed Feb 18 1998 04:22 - ID#24135)
CAM looks interesting
For SilverBaron- Haggis
You hit one.. Talked to company secretary this morning.
Im getting annual report sent courier. But in meantime
they own a mix of stuff.. Rangold, Ddn-deeps,JCI,
Saflife which is unbundling I think,and 87 % of an
Australian company called Western Investments which
they just acquired.
Brett Kebble is at the helm. Company started in september
last year using shell of NK properties which owned
office buildings. A new york investment company is
also buying as a medium to acquire interest in Rangold
and deeps.
Really curious about Western Investments .. Haggis
have you any info .. it is Perth based.

John Disney__A
(Wed Feb 18 1998 04:46 - ID#24135)
The age of the Bullsh!tter.
For Mozel
Believe Davos audience was press - labor representative
- Political leaders not privy to "the Plan".. small
investors. "Managing down " gold not easy if you manage
down too far as mines close and supply dries up and even
Blind Freddy's dog knows that gold should go up then.
Things are never what they seem. For example.. you
never read a word from the local press saying that the RSA
mines are the lowest average cost in the world. Never
is the the "low cash cost" of the NA mines questioned
( the NA mines generate this swill so that the idiot banks
will continue to finance them ) ... The South Africans
then quote the low NA cash cost figures to their unions
to increase productivity and reduce manpower without
having political problems. Thus keeping their share
holders happy with dividends..I am a shareholder.. I
should keep my big mouth shut. I take back all those
nasty things I said about thise NA mines ... They are
truly low cost MARVELS. I hate being stuck with these
African dogs. This place is unstable too .. Look out!!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 05:41 - ID#33650)
getchell gold report at
other reports as well

(Wed Feb 18 1998 06:12 - ID#284255)
Gold option force model
Go to *future* and choose *GC*

Crystal Ball
(Wed Feb 18 1998 06:18 - ID#287367)
@ Mr John Disney - how they averaged $410 per ounce at ABX
Sir: Please remember that when spot gold was at $380-$410/ounce, futures contracts prices 12, 24, 36 months out were considerably higher due to carrying charges and implied rate of return ( which depend upon interest rates extant ) . Looking at Investor's Business Daily of 2/10/98, Feb '98 gold closed at $300.80, Dec '98 gold closed at $308.30, and Dec '99 gold closed at $320.20

(Wed Feb 18 1998 06:24 - ID#183109)
Randgold Resources
John Disney,

Any idea of a link where I can follow the price of Randgold Resources? Can't find it using the symbol search for the LSE. Any rumors flying around down there regarding the buyout of RANGY? Thanks.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Feb 18 1998 06:25 - ID#287367)
@ Sharefin
Hi Nick. Long time no C. The option force model is interesting, but it is no damned good for timing; sometimes it takes many months for the stock/index/future to home in on the purported target price. Case in point - ORCL strayed far from its target for many moons before finally collapsing.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 06:26 - ID#183109)
A little old, but two good articles on platinum:

Nissan Switches Back to Platinum

The Russian agency responsible for exporting precious metals still has no plans to hold talks with foreign customers to arrange for deliveries

Crystal Ball
(Wed Feb 18 1998 06:34 - ID#287367)
@ Sharefin
Took a peek at option force for GC. If you look at the curves below the daily prices, you'll see they have trended to the bottom of the range, portending a near-term move down in prices. This jives quite well with the action in the XAU. I fully expect to see XAU back in the low 60's.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 06:40 - ID#286199)
SILVER ramblings from the WSJ - Interactive
February 18, 1998
Business World
In This Corner, a Silver Bull.
In That Corner, India


Becoming a billionaire is toilsome work, but staying one can be even more nerve wracking. Called before a judge to explain his silver machinations in the 1970s, the notorious Bunker Hunt confessed to a dread that socialistic governments were taking the world to hell at a gallop. Mr. Hunt approached risk the way a gambler does. He threw himself headlong into a desperate bet that inflation could only get worse and worse, and ended up owning $2 billion in silver in warehouses all over Dallas.

Warren Buffett, the latest silver adventurer, has ideas too. He wants to endow a foundation to propagate his fear that too many people are propagating. But as a "value" investor, he approaches risk the way an old lady does. He judges stocks to be overpriced right now thanks to all those mutual fund nafs, but silver seems to be in certifiable short supply.

After all, consumption has outpaced production all through the '90s, and miners show no sign of catching up. Ipso facto, the price can only go higher, so Mr. Buffett has quietly availed himself of a stash of 130 million ounces--not as much as Mr. Hunt but enough to satisfy the U.S. for a year. Mr. Hunt was wrong for the right reasons. A Federal Reserve chairman came along to slay inflation, and lawsuits by aggrieved silver speculators swamped the Texas malcontent into bankruptcy, wiping out the fortune he sought to preserve.

Mr. Buffett may be lucky to prove right for the wrong reasons. But at least his saintly aura has stood him in good stead. He only had to announce that, aw shucks, he was the one roiling the silver markets lately. A pending lawsuit alleging "manipulation" by perp or perps unknown was quickly withdrawn. The Commodities Futures Trading Commission, which had been investigating "suspicious" price movements, fell silent too. Oh, if only Bill Gates could learn to be so rich yet so endearing.

Now all Mr. Buffett has to worry about is whether silver is really in short supply.

His thinking seems to be that silver is a normal industrial commodity, used in photography, electronics and decorative objects. But despite all the talk about the "demonetization" of precious metals, silver remains highly monetized among a large segment of our human family, and not just the odd fretful billionaire from Dallas.

India's rural populace has traditionally bought silver against the danger of rapacious governments and unreliable monsoons. This habit has followed them even to the cities. An Indian newspaper nowadays is as likely to discuss the relative merits of jewelry and bullion as stocks and bonds. The commodity mavens at New York's CPM Group once calculated Indians' total holdings at 3.3 billion ounces, and they sucked up another 125 million ounces last year. The U.S. Mint estimates that Americans hold 2.5 billion ounces. These supplies don't easily fit the model, but they have a way of coming back and surprising the market.

Indians were only too pleased to take Mr. Hunt's bet in the '70s, when his buying drove the price to $50 from $5. They sold and sold, until nervous bureaucrats in New Delhi stepped in and blocked any more sales on the grounds that Mr. Hunt must be smarter than any Indian. ( He wasn't. )

Now Indian investors seem to be taking Mr. Buffett's bet too. In Bombay the price has taken a dip in recent days, even as it rises elsewhere. The head of the local Bullion Association now predicts that silver imports could fall to 1,000 tons this year, down from 3,800 tons. That would be a mighty swing in the willingness of Indians to hold silver--almost enough to cancel out Mr. Buffett's bet.

Silver doesn't always behave like other commodities, however much one might hope to discern "value" based on industrial supply and demand. Our own markets are signaling "backwardation"--i.e., traders seem to suspect that whatever the temporary shortages caused by Mr. Buffett's spree, supply is out there beyond the dwindling stocks held in the exchange warehouses. Those stocks have been dwindling for years, yet prices have hardly budged.

Why not? Because the neuroses of Texas billionaires and Indian silver speculators remain typical of a world where many still try to protect their wealth from scary governments. That creates an overhang of supply, and nobody can be sure what price might bring these troves into the market.

Consider: Until 1871, there wasn't a single bank in California, so dubious were residents of the greenback. They kept their wealth in gold. Congress finally licensed special "gold banks" in hopes of liquefying these savings for national development. Even Mr. Buffett, back in the 1970s, was no less pessimistic than Mr. Hunt over the inflationary propensity of politicians. He lost a sizable penny or two betting on eternally rising prices for industrial commodities.

New Delhi, as it comes out of socialist hibernation, has only just started down the road toward giving its capitalists a semblance of security.

Only last year were silver and gold markets fully legalized, crimping a huge smuggling racket from Dubai. Banks have finally been authorized to lend against the off-the-books holdings of individuals and businesses. Last year, too, a tax amnesty was floated for all those who had boycotted the system when its top rate was 97.5%. Unexpectedly, the biggest headache was valuing the gold and silver that flew out of hiding. One family in Calcutta declared 1.5 tons of silver coins and flatware.

If sustained, these gestures of sanity may eventually lead to the "demonetization" of silver in India, leaving only the rest of Asia. In Saigon alone there is said to be $2 billion tucked beneath floorboards, which the local cadres would dearly love to lure into the banking system. If the mainland Chinese socked away as much gold as the Taiwanese do, world production would have to triple to meet their demand.

We don't know what tips a billionaire over into paranoia, but Mr. Hunt's apocalyptic sense surely had something in common with the fears of ordinary wealth holders in lands where the rule of law is not well developed. Mr. Buffett, a sort of post-primitive capitalist, may no longer be able to relate, for virtually alone among billionaires he has avoided becoming a target, though at the cost of wearing the robes of a guru, which must be tiring. Having gotten over his inflation scare, he even claims to enjoy paying taxes now. He will certainly have achieved something if his silver gambit doesn't get him sued by somebody. But he could always point out that his bet is measly compared to the bets being made by millions of savers in the developing world. As long as governments are untrustworthy and the wealthy paranoid, they are the whizzes who ultimately control the market.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 06:59 - ID#289357)
COMEX stocks 2/17


Registered.... 297,112

Elligible......... 144,882

Total............. 441,994 +8311


Registered.... 31,681,094

Elligible......... 60,258,280

Total............. 91,939,374 - 806,532 !

SPEED: Apparently there was a time delay on thislast night.


(Wed Feb 18 1998 07:00 - ID#287358)
John Disney
You can learn about Barrick's Contango at

(Wed Feb 18 1998 07:07 - ID#286199)
Thanks. Looks like the funnymentals are still going our way. Hi yo silver!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 07:15 - ID#253246)
(TVX's Batisita sees warren buffet unloading his siilver in -6-8 months)
I caught some of the taped conference of TVX's toronto session on
Monday and Eike Battista of TVX sees silver around $5.50 and that
he thinks Buffet wil be unloading his silver position in 6-8 months.

Also on tape some comments about Apex & Soros

Any thoughts ( Taped session still available until 2/19 dial 416-695-5800
press 889 you are able to fast foward through if necessary )

John Disney__A
(Wed Feb 18 1998 07:18 - ID#24135)
for Polar bear

I go here and type in Rangy for ADR action. Ive heard something
about a sellout yes but on rangold resources I recall -

(Wed Feb 18 1998 07:40 - ID#398105)
Och aye the nuuuuuuuu....................

John Disney - sorry can't help
Really curious about Western Investments .. Haggis
have you any info .. it is Perth based

Farfel........i have been a "wee' bit busy.
I hear that the Pegasus Board have given Nennecker a US$250 000 bonus, to absorb the flak.............

(Wed Feb 18 1998 07:41 - ID#26793)
Suharto "rethinking" Currency Board plan

(Wed Feb 18 1998 07:41 - ID#420116)
Speed post - WSJ Silver - WB
Jenkins Jr. failed to mention what Buffett paid for his silver and what it's now worth. Wonder if Jenkins did a similar story when WB bought Coke stock. Why does he care? What does he covet?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 07:49 - ID#26793)
Treasury insists that IMF is not going to bail out bankers bad loans

(Wed Feb 18 1998 07:54 - ID#26793)
North Korean defector says NK prepares for war as people starve

(Wed Feb 18 1998 07:58 - ID#26793)
Columbian peso under attack

(Wed Feb 18 1998 07:58 - ID#398105)
Oh dear, looks like the Nikkie is starting to wobble again......

(Wed Feb 18 1998 07:59 - ID#284255)
Open interest
Crystal Ball
I haven't followed the site and can't confirm its accuracy.
Here are the notes of how it all works.

They have XAU @ 71.4 for Feb
And @ 73.7 for March
And GC @ $306 for March
And @ $312.8 for June

They derive these expectations due to open interest on calls/puts.
Interesting site and I would like to know their accuracy rate.

Painting a house at the moment and saving Barts bandwidth.
Not enough time at the keyboard.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 08:11 - ID#284255)
How much do you owe?
Interesting comments about the average debt of the average American.
I wonder how much everyone owes when B.Gates assets are included.
If he owns more than the bottom 40% of all Americans.
Then all the rest must carry a far greater debt.

Much, much more.

Could you please send me the file to go with the DB again.
I emailed you but the email was returned to sender.
Many thanks.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 08:20 - ID#183109)

A HUGE Domo Arigato Gozaimashita for fellow Kitcovite VRONSKY.


GOLD ( en,en,en,en,en, ) EAGLE now has a whole new section dedicated to ASIA. I've just spent the last 2 hours there, and I'm grateful for all the new links!!! As this new ASIAN CORNER says:

"Undoubtedly, the deterioration of Asia's economic and financial sectors will us affect us ALL. Therefore, the "Asian Corner" will try to cover the most important economic, financial and monetary sectors to keep us updated on latest developments. As Asia goes... so goes the West."

(Wed Feb 18 1998 08:23 - ID#426220)
SIX NEW ANALYTICAL REPORTS AT golden-eagle (sans the en)

World-acclaimed analysts in their particular areas of expertise:

Profit From Silver & Gold -- Mooney

Countdown To Chaos - Y2K

Canadian Petroleum Perspective -- Robb Moss

The Inger Letter Forecast

General Market View For February 1998 -- Wayne Crimi


See golden-eagle Hot-News Box at URL ( just delete the letters en in golden below ) :

(Wed Feb 18 1998 08:39 - ID#287338)
Deflation is like alcohol! It feels good now, but is misery later on!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 08:45 - ID#42365)
Can anyone reccomend a few gold stocks that will be around if the
price keeps dropping and dropping and dropping....

(Wed Feb 18 1998 08:48 - ID#26793)
Just sent it a second time. The other day I received a message saying it was not picked up yet and they would resend in 5 hours. You may get two.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 08:54 - ID#26793)
Excerpt from my Columbian peso post that is worthy of special attention
Foreign currency dealers blame the peso slide on speculative attacks and add that exporters are
withholding dollar earnings from local currency markets in the expectation that the dollar rate will
rise further.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 09:00 - ID#26793)
M1, M2 increases
We have had a lot of folks at this site using M1, M2 reports to support arguments of future inflation. That Columbian peso story indicates that a lot of the U.S. dollar creation is being held by foreigners for lack of confidence in local currencies or for speculation. It is not being spent in the U.S. and is not impacting prices of U.S. products ( yet ) .

(Wed Feb 18 1998 09:01 - ID#316193)
How Safe Are U.S. Banks From Asian Bad Debts?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 09:02 - ID#31868)
I thank you for the information. One thing Sir I can assure, they will never take New York. Thomas Paine, Alexander Hamilton and me have spoken on such matters.

And as such, matter they do Sir.

Imagination is what inspired God.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 09:14 - ID#340459)
tolerant1, Why is Gold moving in nickles and dimes, While DOW in leaps and bounds, Are we all like
Blind in the land of ALL SEEING

(Wed Feb 18 1998 09:14 - ID#31868)
My answer kind friend is this regarding Another:

Surreptitious ambiguity which flies from the mouth of a donkey is simply that.

I ain't no Shakespeare.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 09:22 - ID#183109)
RANGY vs. Randgold Resources.
John, Thanks for the good quote site. Since RANGY owns something like 57% of Randgold Resources, I was wondering if you knew a site for tracking its price. I'm trying to piece this whole RANDGOLD AND EXPLORATION picture together in hopes of presenting it here to the group, but I need to find out the market value of Rangold Resources, and also of Crown Consolidated. I'm under the impression that Randgold Resources trades on the London exchange, but I've been unable to locate it. Any help you could provide on either of these two companies would be greatly appreciated. Also, what timezone are you in?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 09:31 - ID#330175)
Mornin from SUNNY Cape Breton

(Wed Feb 18 1998 09:34 - ID#31868)
The world itself is in a state of flux. The very natural order will return shortly. Paper is the promise of man and therefore the rationalizing prestense will fade.

Technology is your touching your sencond finger to your own thumb.

Nothing has changed but the lies of man's spoken word.

Remain humble, sit happy and preserve the only true wealth, the comfort of a loved one.

I await Another, how clever, I think not on an awakening basis.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 09:35 - ID#340459)
DOW opened Negative

Crystal Ball
(Wed Feb 18 1998 09:48 - ID#287367)
Logic stands on its head
PPI DOWN 0.7 %, core rate DOWN. Why are bonds DOWN in price? And why is gold up?

Barb Hughes
(Wed Feb 18 1998 09:50 - ID#20783)

OPEC ceiling rise seen by Saudis as weakening oil values.

Take care...Barb

(Wed Feb 18 1998 09:50 - ID#288331)
Surprised not more discussion today on yesterday's silver price action and rumor of WB selling. Was TVX comments on Monday the cause of the rumor? Even if WB is unlikely to sell, would he loan out his silver stockpile? It is interesting to note that when WB takes delivery on the remaining 42 million ounces, he will have a more significant stockpile than COMEX.

Anecdotal comments about India vastly reducing imports or even exporting silver do not make sense to me. How would the average, on-the-street Indian invest his money? How much of the cost of a silver necklace is the silver itself? Would you turn in the silverware just to recover the silver? My gut instinct is the answer is "not even close."

The fact of the matter is that silver prices are not high. We are still at depressed levels of silver prices just like some other commodities.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 09:51 - ID#340459)
Go Gold Go..

Spud Master
(Wed Feb 18 1998 09:52 - ID#273112)
NICK@C + Coward In Chief + Persian Gulf Turkey Shoot
This "splendid little war" being cooked up by a bunch of cowards safe back at the Whorehouse, Washington D.C., could turn out quite differently.

I imagine the Russians are still smart from the the misserable performance of their weapons in the hands of the Iraqis during Desert Storm.

Couple that with what must be widespread Arab "fed-upness" with Americans shoving American dominance in banking, commerce and politics down their thorats left-handed - watching we Americans live the "good life" while the rest of the world writhes in various wretched messes - and you have all the right ingredients for another Iswallhandra ( John Disney - please correct my spelling ) .

Iswallhandra was a great battle in Natal, South Africa - wherein a technologically superior ( and arrogant ) British army got vaporized by a few thousand Zulus with spears.

In a similar manner, our carriers and other capital ships are sitting in the Persian gulf, that nice little target rich lake, with Iraq to the north and Iran to the west. I wouldn't doubt that the Soviets ( cough - Russians ) have supplied both parties with their latest long-range, autonomous sea-skimming, supersonic anti-ship missiles. I very seriously doubt there is a whole hell of a lot our carriers and surrounding forces could do when confronted by a simultaneous attack of 20 to 30 such missiles. Run their Phalanx guns dry? Empty their Aegis/Standard missile launchers at $500,000 a pop? Sink?

As for our AWACS aircraft - they ain't safe either. The Russians have long-range, ram-jet powered anti-AWACS missiles. Strip away our widespread information net and we are in serious trouble. Is our military *really* prepared to be offered up on the altar of Clinton's arrogance & pride?

I have no desired to sit at my tv, listening to a quivering CNN reporter in need of new underwear tell of the loss on one or two US aircraft carriers - and X thousand American lives - all in exchange for blowing up a few Iraqi bunkers and diverting public attention from the team of sexual perverts running the country.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 09:55 - ID#26793)
@Crystal Ball
In the past bad news has been taken as "good news" by the bond market in that it has been read as interest rates will not be raised.

Today bad news was seen by the market as bad news in that bondholders may be worried that falling prices mean falling tax revenues and reduce the ability of the government to pay bond interest without tax increases.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 09:59 - ID#330175)
Cause 'up is down' Crystal Ball

(Wed Feb 18 1998 10:01 - ID#330175)
Donald: Re-your latest
Yer startin ta sound like one of them 'talkin heads' @ CNBC

(Wed Feb 18 1998 10:05 - ID#330175)
NICK@C(2:52)...........................and stalking
Watch it mate cause I'm following yer every move~~~~~~

(Wed Feb 18 1998 10:05 - ID#185448)
Last entry in J.M. Keynes poetry-album:
"You cant have Guns n Butter"
Axel Rose

Crystal Ball
(Wed Feb 18 1998 10:12 - ID#287367)
My goat is gotten
How does the stock market manage to go up day after day after day in the face of crummy news? I've heard of climbing a wall of worry, but this is ridiculous !! RSI and stochastics must be damn near 100 !! Even palladium and silver had to have corrections.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 10:13 - ID#298259)
Yamana Resources hits high grade silver in Argentina
Up C$0.23 ( 30% ) on news

(Wed Feb 18 1998 10:15 - ID#288331)
Silver seems to be struggling for a base here after yesterday's slide. Bullish trendline still intact. Do you see a rebound from here?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 10:23 - ID#7568)

Covered all hedges this a.m. and brought more logs to the fire. More later.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 10:24 - ID#411149)
All- It's amazing how accurate my astrological chart has been
for the gold price [this ain't one I made but bought], it called
that little DIP yesterday. If it continues to be correct, we should
drift even with a little downward bias through the 24th or so, then
start an upward movement for several weeks then level off at that
level through April [end of chart].

Where is Mike Sheller?????

LBG might be right, better get it bought iffin you are goin to BUY.

Tally Ho

(Wed Feb 18 1998 10:25 - ID#254269)

Barb Hughes
(Wed Feb 18 1998 10:39 - ID#20783)

Can easily see a consolidation to the 6.40 area.

Take care...steady nerves...Barb

(Wed Feb 18 1998 10:39 - ID#222231)
Crystal Ball - MF'S(Those initials can be taken another way)
IMHO, as long as inflows to mutual funds continue at a pace of +/-$18 bil, where else can the money go into? Talk about too much money following too few goods. Sounds like equity inflation.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 10:43 - ID#222231)
Crystal Ball-Correction
That's +/-$18 bil/month.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 10:50 - ID#286249)
John Disney: Aristotles Better the impossible probable than the improbable possible ...
brings us to this--
my work suggests two probables : an actual market for overpriced gold, and a paper market for virtual gold.

1. In the tradition of the old Roosa bonds ( nothing new under the sun ) and to finance growing trade deficits , the US issues Rubin Gold treasuries in select tranches to select governments. ( Remember when all were wondered about the sudden enormous purchases of US paper by foreigners? Why?, we questioned. ) The establishment of these Gold Treasuries would make necessary a supply source ( to partially cover Japan alone ) : the quid pro quo to the mining company ( s ) is assured sales at profitable prices regardless of what the spot market does. Who would not sign on? Who would not agree to the National Security secrecy agreement? $400 or $500 gold is not a problem to an entity accustomed to paying $600 for a $20 toilet seat, or $20.00 for a $00.79 aluminum screw.

2. D.A. mentioned yesterday that the futures market was symmetrical, as indeed it was for many years; Black-Scholes changed that forever. The
PMs have been used in derivatives. I do not know how conversant you are with the derivatives market, but let me share with you Mayers Third Law--which describes the virtual gold @$420: Risk-shifting instruments ultimately shift risks onto those less able to bear them.

My questions were: why the passive willingness to hold dubious paper? ( Smoke & Mirror budgeting may fool American voters but not, I think German, Jappanese and Chinese auditors ) and why mine gold ( real ) if it is possible to forward sale way above spot, endlessly--buy spot to deliver and save overhead ) .

What we have, I believe, is a combination of needs must--the government dilemma of unending trade deficits plus the mania of the bull, bolstered by the socialization of risk and the vagaries of human nature.
Does this in any way assuages the angst! Off to do battle. BBL

JTF@The.Watch.List Excellent start! Some interesting bits and pieces to share when I get back. Be watchful!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 11:02 - ID#254269)
WSJ print edition articles;
1. A Currency Board Beats IMF Prescription. Op-ed page A22.
2. Barclays Banl mum on merger talks. Page A14
3. Iraq is one of many with Doomsday Arsenal. Page A14.
4. Op-ed piece re Buffett, Silver and India. Page A23.

Spud Master
(Wed Feb 18 1998 11:06 - ID#273112)
Has anyone noticed that...
The US Treasury's "Public Debt to the Penny" hasn't been updated since Feb 13th?

02/13/1998 $5,474,687,599,259.03

wonder what's up?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 11:09 - ID#254269)
Spud Master; the computer doesn't have enough memory to calculate it ?
( National Debt ) .

(Wed Feb 18 1998 11:13 - ID#57232)
US Debt -- how much?
D.A., Donald,All: I don't think we have resolved the mystery of how much US debt exists -- are we in negative balance or not?

However, there are several points that we have not really addressed. One is that a country can be highly industrialized ( like Japan ) with highly advanced real assets -- state of the art machinery, and still be up to their eyeballs in debt. Just imagine borrowing money off inflated real estate, and equity assets to build factories, only to have the real estate and equity assets plummet in value. This is essentially what happened in Japan ( and S Korea ) , and it could happen here, and much of our industrial capacity is not as modernized as the Japanese. We do have a hidden pearl in all of this as we are the source of the Computer/information revolution. That I think is one of the cornerstones of the strong economy that we have.

So -- modern industrial capacity does not immunize us from deflation or worse. It must be modern industrial capacity with minimal debt.

Point number two: The world economy seems to be in the 'acquisitor' phase when assets are being accumulated by a few owners. If the US for example is a net debtor, I would guess it is because these 'acquisitors' that own US debt have either moved out of the country, or have moved their assets to offshore sites. International corporations do this all the time, and I guess any large corporation in the US has diversified their assets. So, it is possible for the USA to have a negative balance sheet. It is just us mere ordinary mortals that have all of our meagre assets in the US.

Point Number three: What really matters in evaluating indebtedness is the typical debt of the average American ( the 'middle class' ) . The wealth of this 'class' is the backbone of the US economy, or any world economy. Unfortunately, creeping taxation, rising cost of living, and increased legal barriers reducing small business profits have seriously eroded the wealth of this group - passing the wealth to the 'acquisitors'.

So -- when we think of US debt, we should think of how much debt this group owes, not the wealthy few who have accumulated most of the wealth of the United States. Some will say that the only way to solve this problem is to take the wealth away from the wealthy few -- and that is often what eventually happens. But a much better way of doing this is to encourage the work ethic, saving, reduce taxation, and repeal all the nonsense laws that inhibit small businesses.

If we are not able to raise the standard of living of the US 'middle class', we will be asking for trouble. As the Sarkar model of human behavior states, the acquistor phase is followed by the brief revolutionary phase where the people rise up out of frustration from having their standard of living eroded, only to be followed by the Warrior phase.

So -- my conclusion is that the best indicator of how the US is doing is the relative indebtedness of the economic powerhouse of the US -- the 'middle class'. This is very similar to what has happened over thousands of years. If the 'inquisitors' amass all of the wealth, by subterfuge or other means, all they are doing is destroying their own powerbase when they impoverish the people. Any country/government that wishes to survive must address this issue.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 11:28 - ID#31868)
It is my God given right to kill Gorbachev.Put it to him in public. Ask the pig that walks like a man, what he thinks.

There is liberty, and then there is servitude.

Kill Gorbachev for the good of liberty.

John Disney__A
(Wed Feb 18 1998 11:33 - ID#24135)
Dance the Cant-Tango with ME .. Dah Dum
for The spudmaster
Now Im NOT looking it up, but I THINK it goes ..Isandlwana..
I mean its Zulu, man, but its like i..san..duhlawana..
I think he's got it .. he's really got it.. The rain in
Spain falls mainly on the ZULUs.. he's really got it.
For Polarbear.
Crown trades here .. I even bought a little in one of
my dopier moves. You cant really follow it. RR is on the
London exchange but I dont know where.. get an FT and
a microscope.
for SDRer .. great post. BUT you havnt seen anything.
Chevy provided a URL for the ABX Cant-Tango ..
it is
Go there .. read it. It is unbelievable. It is the
most smart @ss arrogant piece of crap Ive seen in some
time. He SAYs that his hedge cant lose because
if gold goes UP - he benefits because his cant-tango
permits him to play spot and "roll over" forward
OR if gold goes down he does the reverse and gains
EITHER WAY. I can only assume that the counterparty is
one or more of the three stooges. The presentation is
q and a and the tone is sorta . "here's the answer to
that dumb question you silly ass". He says that he
can do these kind of hedges because his company is
STRONG ( despite losses in 97 and avg cost pushing 340 ) .
I think that something is not quite kosher here but I
just dont know what it is.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 11:33 - ID#270315)
To All:
since gold aand pms' are sitting still today I thought I would draw your attention to the following; this could be the next big producer.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 11:33 - ID#228100)
Spud Master - 09:52 post
Very well said! Why is our "Coward in Chief" bombing Iraq? Even if there are no casualties, the REAL problems for the USA will begin AFTER the bombs are dropped.

Sounds like Ruby Ridge on a worldwide scale. Instead of a White Trash gunsmith, however, the USA is dealing with someone that can spell "retribution".

(Wed Feb 18 1998 11:34 - ID#227290)
Frustrated & YRI

I saw the numbers YRI released this morning. They are very good. The holes are 4-5 ounces per ton silver, .055 OPT gold, and 5-7% lead.

I was in Patagonia last November looking at a property being drilled by Minera Andes, who has hit nothing like the YRI numbers.

We'll need more data from YRI, but this has the potential for a major strike.

One problem with YRI is their "burn rate," the amount of money they spend each month in non-exploration related expenses. They do go through the cash

Still, a big deposit is a big money-maker. So if YRI has one, a lot of money will be made.

Gold looks beautiful to me this morning. I'll post a little analysis later.

The Preacher

(Wed Feb 18 1998 11:43 - ID#57232)
US Debt, cont'd; Currency boards and Indonesia; Silver Rally?
NationalDebt, part 2: All that is really needed is to calculate the amount of debt that the average citizen owes in each country, and the timescale over which it must be repaid. Also, one needs to include the ability to pay -- ie standard of living. It would be interesting to rank all the major currencies of the world in this manner ( namely relative indebtedess of the average citizen ) , to see which countries are the most 'deflation/depression' resistant. I would guess that Switzerland would be at the top of the list, and the US would be above Italy, Germany, France, Australia, Canada, Mexico. We may be in trouble, but we have company.

Currency Boards and Indonesia: Although I do not get the impression that the IMF is doing all that it could do in getting the SEAsian countries back on their feet, it is only fair to place much of the blame for lack of progress on the Indonesian government. I believe for example that their FED president was fired for trying to close down family-run banks. Apparently he was well respected in banking circles.

I would guess that the IMF is worried that a currency board is set up in Indonesia without a serious effort at internal reform, and all of the IMF moeny goes 'down the drain' in a vain attempt to maintain fixed parity of their currency with a currency board.

D.A. I hope you will have time sometime today to tell us why you are excited about silver. Thanks.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 11:45 - ID#227290)
G-Nutz & Gold Stocks

I don't expect gold to keep dropping, but for the pullback to end soon. Then I think it will make the next leg up.

But to answer your question, look first at Lyndex Explorations ( LYDX: Canadian Dealer Network ) . LYDX and the other stocks operated by the Sheridan Group of Toronto, have the personal fortune of Pat Sheridan standing behind them They're not going out of business.

There are also many companies that got cashed up when gold stocks were hot two years ago and still have mountains of cash:

Valerie Gold ( VLG.Vancouver ) holds more cash than it's market cap, about $18 million ( Can ) .

Jordex ( JDX.Toronto ) is also cash rich.

Minefinders ( MFL.Toronto ) has over $12 million ( Can ) and is making a fine deposit in Mexico. ( Echo Bay had to pull out as jv partner because of its financial condition, after spending millions to develop the deposit. )

There are dozens of others on Vancouver and Toronto that have loads of cash and not much to spend it on right now.

The Preacher

(Wed Feb 18 1998 11:47 - ID#201131)
DA covering silver hedge
Watching what TVX is doing with their silver hedge portfolio reminds me that the biggest risk to most companies right now that produce silver is that the price might go up. Everyone seems to be hedged out six years at todays prices. This is not good if the price goes up. ybe

Richard Burke
(Wed Feb 18 1998 11:52 - ID#411318)
Ken Roberts (Futures)
To All: Today, I got a booklet entitled "The World's Most Powerful Money Manual & Course" in the mail. It is an offering by Ken Roberts Company of a course in his method of futures trading for $C195.00 ( he is from California ) . Do any of you know anything about this person or his course. The booklet indicates that his program was judged the "Lowest Cost Service with Highest Profits" during a two year study by Investment Hotline Monitor. He has been featured, so the brochure says, in Futures Magazine's "Today's Top Trading Advisors" cover stories.The booklet seems to be published by the Fort Erie, Ontario publisher that publishes a lot of stock advisories etc.

John Disney__A
(Wed Feb 18 1998 11:55 - ID#24135)
An environmental mine - no hole in the ground.
For SDR-er
You are RIGHT - I will become the only gold mine
in Paarl .. Disney Land Mines ( do I infringe? ) ..
I write off my gardener and my maid and my vets bills
on my 3 dogs ( needed to guard the "mine" hee hee ) ..
Then I sell gold forward at 330 ( or get one of those
groovey "munk" hedges ) and buy spot at 300 to deliver.
Can I go wrong?? - and talk about low cash costs..
practically ZERO.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Feb 18 1998 11:55 - ID#287367)
Jack jump over the ...
Anybody know what the "Rickshaw Man" formation is in Japanese candlestick charting?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 11:58 - ID#26793)
Did someone on CNBC make the same point on bonds? I was speaking from the point of view of government bonds, fed and state, that depend on tax revenue. From the point of view of corporate bonds you have an even larger problem. Do they have the cash flow to pay the coupon when prices of the stuff they make are dropping.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:01 - ID#28861)
Spud Master
The Aegis systems on the cruisers and destroyers can take out 20-30 inbound targets easily. 500,000 a pop is chicken feed compared to a multi-billion dollar carrier. Do the Russians have anything that still works? or that ever worked? Worry about terrorism against the homeland. It's a far more potent threat. Gold languishes as paper soars. Go profits!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:06 - ID#20137)
Maybe we will soon find out what it will be like to not have silver and/or gold traded/quoted on a daily basis.

My last numbers on gold eligible for delivery was 2-3-98 139,755 ounces ( 2-17-98 144,882 ) . That means at today's spot price $297.20, someone needs only to put up $41,735,186 ( $43,058,930.40 ) to take out all the eligible gold at comex. Not much by today's standards. I am using the algorithm that seems to be in place at the moment ( that as stocks drop the price falls therefore I am being conservative :- )

Similarly for silver on 2-3-98 eligible stocks were at 69,266,523 ounces ( 2-17-98 60,258,280 ) . At $6.70 per ounce ( tonights quote ) it would take another $464,083446.20 ( $403,730,476 ) to soak up the remaining reserves. As we know Warren has set the tone and others will follow.

So with a very minor amount of money, comex's available stocks can be completely wiped out ( an incredibly small amount of money will take out comex's gold eligible gold reserves ) .

But I think that they may well continue trading future contracts. Yes, it may well, become a big paper game. You could roll your contracts for profits and loses, but you would just have trouble taking deliveries, but you could still make money and play the bullion paper game. Possibly, they would start allowing the contacts to be fulfilled with cash equivalents? After all, gold is only a concept :- ) .

Either way, I am of the opinion that the trading of futures will continue. There would be no spot price but alas there would be a price on the June 98, Dec 98, contracts. Basically we would be getting the same relationship in bullion future contracts that we have with currencies. First the currency was back totally by bullion, then partially, then not at all.

Future contracts are indeed paper. Initially back totally by bullion. More recently they have been partially backed by bullion as noted by the low supply/contract ratio, falling supplies - falling price relationship, and the increase volume in contract volume. We may be about to embark on comex bullion trading that will be paper based only?

So, what of bullion itself? What of my 1 ounce maple beauty? I might guess that actual bullion may be treated as a curiosity, a collectable. Its value would be set differently than in the past ( at least as far as governments want the people to believe ) ; maybe we would be considered collectors of fine sculptures.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:11 - ID#197312)
Richard,Ken Roberts,
Highly recommend his course,got his option course too,
have since taken Larry Williams batting 800 course and studied many differnt
courses,but for a beginner it is a simple tech. trading
course,and the 200 bucks is a drop in the bucket, if you
plan on trading futures ( or are ) it is a
good place to start.sorry for the format on this post.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:11 - ID#26793)
I see that D.A. had a comment on the net worth topic last night. When I have more time I will post more of the information I have from 1995. I think it covers the issue D.A. raised but I need to think about it more. Just think, if you are debt free and have 50 bucks in your pocket you have a greater net worth than most corporations in America. A guy selling pencils on a street corner in NYC fits that at the end of the day.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:17 - ID#31876)
Paul Erdman On Indonesian Troubles

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:20 - ID#288295)
A.Goose @ COMEX stocks

See my today's posting at 06:59 for current breakdow

Spud Master
(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:22 - ID#273112)
Old boy, you can stand on the Aegis cruiser, and I'll fire 30 Russian Yakhont Mach 3+ sea skimmers at you simultaneously. I doubt Aegis could fire 30 Standard Arm missiles in 30 seconds - but who knows? And are you expecting a one for one kill ratio? Again, who knows, but I think not. And how long are you going to take to decide to fire another volley of Aegis missiles at the surviving sea skimmers that are now EVEN closer? Phalanx guns gonna come to your rescue? Their eltro-optical trackers are going to have a hell of time seeing through the solid propellant thunderstorm cloud created by 30+ Aegis missiles. Better hope the Phalanx radar is having a good day. Better hope the commander has put everything on "automatic consent" and is not waiting, like John-Luc Picard, to say "on my mark...". The aircraft carrier's best chance is to have plenty of expendable destroyers and Aegis cruiser "javelin" catchers flanling either side. Cheap to replace when they sink.

Need I mention that Aegis has never *really* had to prove itself in multi-multi missile engagements - unless you count shooting down a large, slow commercial aircraft filled with innocents?

btw, where do you want your next of kin notice sent?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:26 - ID#335190)
Mozel @ 02:44 & Confusion Reigns
Date: Wed Feb 18 1998 02:44 mozel ( @6Pak : Confusion Reigns ) ID#153102:

"But there can be corporate socialists. It appears there is too great a disparity between our vocabularies to have much useful or interesting communication."

Thank you for your response. Yes, you are right. Dismissal/Dismissed.

Be Quiet..........Consume......And Die..... RIGHT!
Tranquillity......Squander.....Indifferent. Right!
Secretive.........Destroy......Expire...... RIGHT!
Take Care.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:26 - ID#22956)
....nothing new.....but easy to read.....
this is Jake's Take...... ( his commentary on oil prices ) ...fwiw. go both ways

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:31 - ID#330175)
Donald.......................and CNBC sound-a-like
Yup,but forgot which 'talkin head' said 'it'....Sunny and warm ( 35 ) here today.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:31 - ID#153102)
@JohnD @SDRer
"He ( Munk ) says that he
can do these kind of hedges because his company is
STRONG ( despite losses in 97 and avg cost pushing 340 ) .
I think that something is not quite kosher here but I
just dont know what it is."

It's spookery and political connections ( i.e. STRONG ) . Let's suppose ABX offtake went to supply Rubin gold treasuries and/or for gold lost in the loan program. Let's suppose Munk was put under national security secrecy oath. He is now protected from shareholder suits. I just wonder how much of ABX one time charges go to compensate "Senior Advisors." If government is on the other side, the hedge details make sense.

And if revaluation of gold ( market or official ) were in the works at some price higher than $410, then the hedge could be defended in the future as a bargain.

@SDRer How many gold backed bonds has the US issued ?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:32 - ID#330175)
EB...............Have I broken through the 'Berlin Wall' yet

Richard Burke
(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:32 - ID#411318)
Ken Roberts' Courses
jman: Thank you.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:33 - ID#238295)
Au holding up nicely today as silver, platinum, and palladium drop sharply.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:34 - ID#20137)
Date: Wed Feb 18 1998 12:20
Silverbaron ( A.Goose @ COMEX stocks ) ID#288295:

Thanks Silverbaron. You numbers were greatly apprecaited. I added them in the parenthesis.

It is amazing to me that elligible silver stocks have dropped from 69,266,523 ounces on 2-3-98 to 60,258,280 ounces 2-17-98... AND with the price drop asscociated with it ... WOW!

I hope you will continue to help with the stock postings, thanks in advance.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:35 - ID#298259)
Looking forward to your analysis. Last I heard in July '97 YRI had a working capital position of $23 million. They have 13 projects encompassing 95 properties which coverer nearly 9 million acres in Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, New Guinea and Washington State. The co. has been said to be a possible takeover canadate, and last year hired Rothschild Canada, Ltd, one of the world's leading mining investment banking firms to help it screen potential bidders. I think the stock price has also taken a hit because of the lower copper prices.

Gee, with the latest news maybe I will get back to a breakeven position.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:37 - ID#287207)
Anyone figure out what happened to silver yesterday?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:37 - ID#298259)
Sorry...I missed the "a", won't happen again.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:39 - ID#330175)
Silver yesterday + Selby
Certainly not MOI~~~~~~~~~~go Gold and 'Team Canada' ( hockey ) !

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:39 - ID#32078)
missile attack
SPUDMASTER.. I would think that a fleet of 30 sea skimming missiles aimed at our fleet would be a go signal for total distruction of anything in Irag which resembled military and would in effect be a suicide decision, even if it was successful in damaging/sinking a carrier.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:42 - ID#289357)
A. Goose

Sorry - I was in a rush ( home for lunch ) , and didn't catch that you already had the numbers. I'll post them daily unless someone beats me to it.

Charles Keeling
(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:48 - ID#344225)
RE: Coming Gulf skirmish.

US has made a deal. Iran to get Southern
portion of Iraq. Turkey to get Northern
portion of Iraq. This is set to happen when
the bombs start falling on Baghdad. Had you
wondered why we were not sending troops this
time around? Instead, Iran and Iraq will be
sending troops. This is the US plan.

But what plan is Saddam hatching? If I were
Saddam, I would "lease" my oil reserves to
Russia for three years in exchange for a
credit on their books, and to pay back the
7 billion dollars that they are owed by Iraq.

Then, it would be up to Russia to protect and
market those reserves. Would the US bomb
Iraq if Russian planes are on the tarmac and
Russian oil workers and troops scattered
throughout the country at strategic locations?

I think NOT. Both sides have a surprise to
spring. It will turn into a chess game.
This is the reason that Yeltsin says that
a risk for a World War exists. Who will get
check mated? I think it will be the US.


(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:51 - ID#289357)
Charles Keeling
I think somebody needs to watch farther east ( to N. Korea ) when the shooting starts in Iraq. Seems to me a marvelous opportunity for an attack, if they are ever going to do it. Wars on 2 fronts?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:54 - ID#22956)
*morning call*......(fwiw)...

ted, keep trying. I have a call into my ISP, they should get back to me....say..........3to4 weeks.....or months........ ( bastards ) ..... Funny though, you are the only one to have this trouble. I think I'm getting leg-pulled. Crystall B., could you mail me to make sure? ( one of those fine jokes, yuk-yuk )

go gold

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:55 - ID#340459)
@Charles Keeling, IMHO it is highely unlikely that US will cut a deal with Iran, Iran is next on the
US hit list in that region. US will never allow Iran to get hold of more Oil. And Iraq owes more than $ 80 billion to Russia and not mere 7 billion as mentioned in your Post. Also, Please dont forget that USA supplied the Chem/Bio and conventional weapons to Iraq in 80's to neutralize Iran till Saddam fell out of favour in the 90's.....

(Wed Feb 18 1998 12:59 - ID#197312)
maybe something as simple as a few thousand contracts
coming into the market on a sell at the market,only
thing I can figure some big guys trying to blow out some
sell stops and temp. slow the markets upward move.I
still think if could get squeezed last week,it will probably
happen again soon.Checked today on may 675 calls,around
20 pts,way cheap 1000 bucks for almost in the money with
that much time left?def. have to trade this market with a
plan for worse case scenario,some kind of hedge or offset,
or take the jerk on the premium and get a call option.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 13:01 - ID#340459)
Israeli intelligence reports that Iraq has no war head capability to shoot any chemical or other
weapons, They may have these agents but capability to deliver it is destroyed in last 6 yrs by UN. So, this game is more than meets the eye..

(Wed Feb 18 1998 13:06 - ID#410194)
The silver enigma
And so the highest prices seen in Silver was about 2 weeks ago at the peak of the euphoria created by the Warren Buffet news! Remember Thursday morning February 5th when panic buying took place in London a few minutes before their closing? When the mass gets excited about something, prices then tend to go in opposite direction and in retrospect, Thursday and Friday February 5th and 6th were prime time to sell long positions and take profits! The bull market in Silver started long before the Buffet news came out....but unfortunately, many investors and/or traders always take decisions according to what "others" ( may they be pros, analysts or whatever ) are doing, even forgetting that Buffet himself bought Silver at much lower prices!

A strange and complex psychology almost always gets a hold of a market that is too mediatized and "obvious". Silver never stopped retreating in spite of many more stunning Comex inventory withdrawals over the last several days.

For those who are interested to get a better education on the surrounding psychology to watch for when it's time to close most of our positions in any given markets, look up all of the "Silver" stuff posted even here on Kitco around February 5th, 6th, etc... and notice how sure of a thing the Silver market had become by then and the numerous calls for Silver to "blast through the roof", "to reach $8-$10 in no time" etc... and yet, those were the days when Silver peaked and never stopped losing ground ever since!

Date: Thu Feb 05 1998 09:35
Realistic ( A word of caution ) ID#410194:
Most people will probably disregard this message but...

The Silver buying frenzy that took place in the last minutes of trading in the London market this morning reached epic proportions.

The euphoria reached panick buying where emotions were flying high as a result of the extreme mediatization of the Silver situation over the last few days.

Short term traders should now be even more careful and those who have not boarded this train several months ago should try to analyze the situation very objectively.

Listen around, Silver has all of a sudden became a "sure thing".

By looking back to history, the "sure thing" trades mostly always turn against the ones who got aboard late!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 13:14 - ID#238295)
Military Dissent on Iraq and US World Influence
THE PALM BEACH POST had an interesting op-ed piece this morning that agrees almost 100% with the opinions expressed by me and others here on Iraq and Clinton's threats to bomb that country yet again.

The really interesting thing is the author -- one John Coffey, A RETIRED AIR FORCE LIEUTENANT COLONEL. No pacifist or nervous nellie he. No indeed! But he argues quite persuasively that Clinton's threats re: Iraq are not in our national interest and will greatly accelerate the coming together of all the potential anti-US forces in the world. I'm sure others in the military -- perhaps many others -- share his views.

I'm not sure if this on the net, but here are a few quotes.

"Killing Iraqis without reasonable expectations of achieving reasonable results is a WAR CRIME. Worse, it is immoral. Even worse, it is stupid because it makes more enemies for America."

"President Clinton seems out of control in more ways than one. The danger from SH is greatly exaggerated. During the Gulf War when he was many times stronger than he is today, he did not dare use whatever weapons of mass destruction he may have had."

"The arrogant and aggressive policies of Secretary of State Albright are shaping the world into an anti-American alignment where increasingly American tourists and businessmen are unsafe."

I have been expressing similar sentiments for some time now. My sense that US influence in the world is peaking is the main reason I am so bullish on gold long-term. As long as the US is able to get its own way anywhere in the world on almost any issue, a major gold bull simply ain't gonna happen even if the CBs completely stop selling and lending. Rally yes, but major bull no.

But once the smart money senses that potential counters to US hegemony are in the wind, a huge gold bull will commence despite the protestations of Mr. Arnold and Mr. Smith.

BTW, we should stop talking about the CBs as if they were a unified entity. The driving force in the gold war is our Federal Reserve and those CBs aligned with it or controlled by it. These are primarily the CBs of the English Speaking counties. But others -- Germany, France, Russia, and many in Asia -- have a very different perspective. Gold must account for a considerable part of the monetary reserves of any nation that wants to maintain a measure of monetary independence.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 13:15 - ID#340459)
WB can be as wrong as any one of us in his decisions.. It is human to err
WB, Buy Gold, it is atleast more stable than any PM on earth...

(Wed Feb 18 1998 13:16 - ID#153102)
@JohnD @SDRer
The allure of the greenback both domestically and internationally is due to unlimited credit. Unlimited credit means the financial danger of illiquidity theoretically no longer exists. This is the Keynes machine.

Now we have reason to believe there is truly an oil-greenback-gold relationship with limits built into it. This compromises the strength of the greenback. It is now no longer a source of unlimited credit. It is limited by the relationship. The financial danger of a liquidity crisis is no longer a theoretical impossibility. Alan Greenspan was not candid in his testimony to Congress. Rubin, who said the IMF gold could not be sold, was more candid. It was like watching a grownup explain things to children. A bunch of these politicians really have no clue.

Washington must be getting desperate in its search for a way to dissolve the oil-greenback-gold relationship without upsetting the world. If the Arabs stand fast, the oil-greenback-gold ratio will change the world.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 13:21 - ID#340459)
Thanks Old Gold for your Post.. Very prudent observation about negative impacts of ill concieved
US foreign Policy..Dont repeat Vietnam..Arlington National Cemetry is full of reminder's about warped patriotic propoganda.. BC, Send Chelsea to join the Army, This Hypocrite is appalling...

(Wed Feb 18 1998 13:26 - ID#22956)
watch&wait? ... bomb&wait! ... buy&hold? ...sell&hold! ... hmmm?! ....
I am as confused as the next person. On the one hand I would like US to obvserve the wishes of the UN. The other hand tells me to off this dude because his intentions are anything but genuine. hmmmmm.... What to do?? I trust diplomacy will prevail but I do not think either party ( the world ) will let this happen. ~~too much to lose, too much to gain, etc.~~ I just don't know. Money and Power.....power and money....

I have read somewhere ( probably here ) that a 'skirmish' will not effect oil prices too much for it has been 'figured in'. I am not sure what this means or how it could be 'figured in'. And why would gold prices rise? I don't see that at all. Any comments? ( sorry if this has been hashed or re-hashed, I have not been able to read all of kitco with power outages and time constraints ) .... ( and sorry to Bart for off-topic Oil comments, but oil and gold ARE tied to each other in many ways, no? )

I have been waiting on this oil thing for a while go long here without confirmation of any trend is to throw money AWAY. And how much bottom is there? I just don't know. Too many doubts....this is a job for strategic option purchasing ( or selling, vols high, dangerous though ) . I will find a-way to exploit this mess and turn a buck or two. the planning table....hmmmm...


Charles Keeling
(Wed Feb 18 1998 13:27 - ID#344225)
My source for the possible scenario
in the Gulf is an opinion. But is is
pretty well founded.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 13:39 - ID#153102)
I agree and have said so before that unilateral United States military action in the Gulf will change the tome of world opinion. Overnight. And perhaps permanently. They have to have the Arabs asking for military intervention to make military action acceptable.

The oil-greenback-gold relationship has been a factor since 1971. Using Saddam Hussein, the United States began in the 90's to try to manage that relationship by creating fear, uncertainty, and dread in the oil sheikdoms. It has not worked as planned. The Arabs don't scare as easily as does the American public. What next ?? Draw the Russians in to make them a believable threat to the Arabs ? Allow the Iranians to get southern Iraq and to be on the Kuwaiti border ? Meanwhile the clock is ticking on the gold market. Monetary demand for gold in Asia is climbing. Japan dithers while SE Asia burns. And China keeps saying it won't devalue.

Spud Master
(Wed Feb 18 1998 13:44 - ID#273112)
With what, pray tell, would we retaliate with, should Iraq/Iran sink one or more carriers? B-52s flying 'round the world from Barksdale, La? B-2 bombers flying complete with pink feather dusters to keep them spanky-clean? Perhaps we should nuke them? Yea - the US - only nation on earth to have employed weapons of mass destruction. But then, we're the good guys, right? Waco. Ruby Ridge.

Iraq has already demonstrated it's ability to "absorb" US air bombing. What did it accomplish? BFD nothing. Saddam doesn't care. It's just "another 40 million proles" to him.

Sinking a US carrier, would, however, create a fantastic Arab bandwagon effect. Kind of like a big cheer going up.

US world hegemony depends more on "perception" than reality. So, unless you are ready to start nuking civilians, I wouldn't be so sure of yourself. After all, you aren't going to be the one dying - it'll be some US soldier risking his life, not the cowardly "leaders" of the US, underwear around their ankles watching CNN.

Charles Keeling
(Wed Feb 18 1998 13:48 - ID#344225)
It was the Central Banks in the Netherlands
who were preparing to enter the Euro who
dumped their GOLD and caused Gold to crash.
Canada, Australia, and Argentina also
dumped a good portion. But-it was the coming
EURO that triggered the real problem.

The EURO will be the biggest event in modern
times that will effect finances ( stocks-bonds
and Precious Metals ) . Some think it will
NEVER happen. If that is true, the Netherlands
dumped their Gold for no good reason.

Our like minded biker friend on CNBC also
thinks: "watch the EURO for a go/no-go" ,
and invest accordingly.

For us Gold Bugs, a "go" for the EURO would be
a plus because if it is successful, the dollar
would come under pressure. That of course is

(Wed Feb 18 1998 13:51 - ID#298259)
Current Bid .80---Ask .85---Last .76---up.16 as of 1:22

(Wed Feb 18 1998 13:56 - ID#28861)
What effect would an attack on the American fleet have on the price of gold? oil? That is a more efficacious use of our time here. Incidentally, I'd like to know what platform you have that can fire 30+ Russian seaskimmers? Describe your scenario. I'll bet my satellites can see it right now. Look up and smile.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 13:57 - ID#254269)
@ mozel; Chinca devaluation. I just read your 13.39. Could you please
give me a very simple explanation of the ramifications of a China devaluation ? Thanks.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 13:57 - ID#238295)
gold and US influence
EB As I have argued before, the immediate impact of US Iraq attack probably will be modestly negative for gold in the wake of likely US military success and a probable jingoistic orgy whipped up by the media. But the LONG-TERM impact will be very bullish as other nations inevitably come together so as to counterbalance the US. And any unanticipated Iraq military success could send gold up even in the short-term

The gold bear has coincided almost precisely with the rise of US hegemony in the world and corporate power here at home. When these trends reverse, the longs will get their revenge in spades.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 14:03 - ID#410114)
US gold bonds
Mozel 1231

the US gov't issued a lot of them prior to 1932 and they defaulted on them for "public policy" reasons.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 14:04 - ID#153102)
Nothing except the ANOTHER scenario accounts for ABX forward sales. But, with his scenario Munk is not a genius, but the recipient of inside information from his Senior Advisors, Bush, Baker, and Jordan. It also accounts for the actions of the United States vis a vis Saddam Hussein.

The media campaign to drive little buyers away from gold is just more evidence that the CIA has enough influence on media to be able to feed us the news views it wants us to have. China bought 167 tons of gold at one go. If that's not monetary demand, I don't know what is.

Clinton renewed the national emergency two years ago with a message to COngress certifying that Serbia was a threat to the national security of the United States. Now we are told anybody with a bathroom and %5,000 and anthrax is a threat to the national security of the United States. Fear mongering and war mongering. Public information on this whole gold-Gulf thing is the brainchild of the same old disinformation machine that kept the Cold War alive to induce Americans to surrender their liberties for security and their work-lives in taxes for debt and weapons.

Lurker 777
(Wed Feb 18 1998 14:10 - ID#317247)
Phillies for $300?
Date: Mon Feb 16 1998 08:45

glenn ( My Two Cents ) ID#376309:

Spot Gold will break $280.00 before it breaks $320.00!

Glenn: I hope your prediction that Gold will see $280 before $320 is correct. I just bought some Dec. 99 280 puts for $600. each and I am hoping to buy more Philarmonic coins. If spot gold declines to $280 the Philharmonic Gold bullion coins will cost around $292.00 each. My downside loss risk for the coins and the put options is less than 6% for a 20 month position. Also, I am holding April 98 290 puts but time is getting short ( 17 trading days ) and the premium smaller.

All: We might get one more chance to buy bullion coins for under $300. each. Set your target price and keep your dealers phone number ready. We should be able to buy Maples and Phillies for $300.00 each if spot is $287. I have bought all my coins for under $300. each and now have maxed out ( mobilized ) all my credit to buy more.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 14:11 - ID#254269)
Sorry; gas masks sold out ! I've noticed all of the comments here about Iraq sinking one or two

carriers in the Gulf and while I suspect that is highly unlikely I am wondering if anyone has considered the following. What if S.H. decides to use his horrible concoctions on the US and Allied forces on board a lot of those ships ? If he could achieve that, that would cause a lot of casualties. There is an article in WSJ today about how the Israelis are stocking up on gas masks , with 30 to 50,000 civillians lining up each day to pick up a gas mask.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 14:12 - ID#153102)
The way I see it Chinese devaluation will put financial pressure on any other country that competes with it for exports to get greenbacks. The expected consequence would be another round of competitive devaluations in the whole Asian region. And more headaches for Japan.

Lurker 777
(Wed Feb 18 1998 14:19 - ID#317247)
EB and option players:
Would you straddle the silver market at this level and what month and strike price looks tempting?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 14:20 - ID#333127)
to Charles Keeling
IMHO if the Euro works the dollar is in trouble, if it doesn't they buy back gold to back their currencies. Either way gold goes up. It looks to me like the Europeans now think the Euro will work and they won't need the dollar and the dollar lovers expect it to remain the currency in power. If the Euro wins out dollars will be dumped and up goes gold. At the current price of gold it is an excellent risk.

Charles Keeling
(Wed Feb 18 1998 14:21 - ID#344225)
I agree with your thesis that Madeline
Albright represents a "slap in the face" to
all of the Arab Leaders that she visits.

First she is a Woman. Second, she doesn't
wear a veil. Third she is Jewish.

If you were the leader of an Arab country
what would you think when this woman comes
and sits in front of you? Would you take
her seriously, or would you just be somewhat
amused and mor than a little bit angered?

But-As to US strategy. IF Jordan and Iran
are involved in the coming conspiracy, how
could the rest of the ARAB world blame the
USA for their actions in the Gulf?

Say what you want about our boy President, BC,
but one thing is for sure: Clinton is
a cunning, son of a gun. Those who you
quote do not know his game plan.

Charles Keeling
(Wed Feb 18 1998 14:28 - ID#344225)
YOU SAID IT! I agree. It IS a win/win
situation. But perhaps GOLD will go HIGHER
if the EURO is a success.

IMHO it will fail as it is designed. First,
the computer changes that need to be made
in the next few months to implement the EURO
are LARGE. Second, these changes are
stepping on the toes of the needed changes
to the Y2K problem. They may have to step
back; rethink the target date, and try again
in 2001.

John Disney__A
(Wed Feb 18 1998 14:28 - ID#24135)
No good can come of this
for Mozel and SDRer
I think that abx counterparty as US Government is a
good working assumption .. Reserve base is in US
also. No one else could do such a non commercial
counterparty other than larry/curly/moe. Risky to
do such a deal with companies with reserves in other
countries in event of war. Of course whole Roosa bond
swindle blows up with war in the picture. ( Cant picture
A. Hitler cashing coupons on his US defense bonds..
can you ?? ) .
Next move ... Saudi Arabia is key point in mid East.
If THEY cut back, OPEC has teeth. IF they open up their
capacity, OPEC has gums. They are the swing guy. Cut
back, oil goes anywhere. They open the tap, look out
below. They are keeping oil where the West wants it.
They have been since the early 1980s. They are ( at least
were ) useless militarily. Maybe the royal guard would
fight but they are unimpressive. Saudis need
others to do their work, and mercenaries to do their
In return for Saudi cooperation, The CB are keeping
Gold where Saudi can soak it up if they wish. But what
is the end game ?? If oil goes to say 45$ NOW, well
we would have big stagflation , an obvious end to the
bull market .. 1974 -80 all over again.. and worse ..
a banking crash... this is making me nervous.
As an aside, Turkey could use Northern Iraq. That part
fits. Thats the Kirkuk oil field, and Turkey is crude short.
It also lessens their Kurdish problem.
I think Ill have an absolut, and listen to Shostakovich.
That kind of music fits right in.

Spud Master
(Wed Feb 18 1998 14:28 - ID#273112)
Speed, just nip over to your library and read the February 1998 issue of "Jane's Intelligence". It has a five page article on the Russian Onik and Yakhont anit-ship cruise missile.

Oh yes, and the Russians also market a wheeled TEL ( transporter, erector, launcher ) that fires the Yakhont FYI. So, ten Yakhont TELs roll out of Iranian Persian gulf ravines, fire their three missiles each and viola! 30 Yakhonts on their way toward brave US personel, while the Fornicator in Chief digs around for the Oval Office tart-o-matice of the hour.

What it has to do with gold is the world saying it has had enough of US playing the saintly role of Defender of the Free, when it is in fact Facilitator of World Slavery through worthless Federal Reserve Notes. The phony Federal Reserve Note is the *true* weapon of mass destruction, used daily in air strikes from Wall Street, New York, Washington D.C. against the financially defenseless peoples of Southeast Asia, South America, Africa and the common people of the US. Gold is the thing the Fed fears the most: honest, unforgable, uncontrollable money.

Quite simply, gold = freedom. paper = slavery.

Our *criminal* act of leaving Saddam in power after Desert Storm says everything about American true intent: we care nothing for the Marsh Arabs, the Kurds, the Iraqi people slaughtered by SH - we only care about cheap oil & keeping the Saudis and Kuwaitis scared & cowering from SH boggey-man threat. Be proud of your ... government.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 14:31 - ID#153102)
Sending in Albright is a way to say to the Arabs, you are not people whom we feel we have to respect. It is a diplomatic signal declaring strength.

Everything going on now is about disconnecting the greenback from the oil and gold ratio or at a minimum hugely improving the ratio. They will do ANYTHING to make the greenback the international Keynesian currency. It represents the pinnacle.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 14:35 - ID#333127)
to C harles Keeling
I agree 100% if the Euro works the currency in power, the dollar, takes a big hit and would cause a bigger gold rise than a re-purchase by Euro central banks of gold.

John Disney__A
(Wed Feb 18 1998 14:51 - ID#24135)
The signal is unintentional which makes it worse.
For Mozel ..
The Arabs would read the "diplomatic signal" that way,
but I think that the real controlling item here is
US style feminism and political correctness. Local
US attitudes and US lack of sensitivity to/knowledge
of foreign customs and feelings have destroyed long
ago any meaningful US diplomatic activity in the
normal sense. Think about it .. Remember Operation
"restore hope" ... then we blow hell out of everybody
and kick a lot of Somalis.
And who thinks up these Monikers - ? Hepcat ?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 14:56 - ID#57232)
Spudmaster: Do we have anything to counter those Yakhonts? Can they be launched from one of those little Irani speed boats? I wonder, what if the speedboat ( or a ground-launched Yakhont ) appeared to be coming from Iraq -- say -- just after we start to pummel Baghdad?

I'm sure the Arabs are not pleased with the message we are sending with our choice of Madeline Albright to represent us.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 14:58 - ID#338289)
All: Y2K and Banking
All: Here is an item that is not significant for what it is saying but because of who is saying it.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 15:01 - ID#153102)
All governments have their price.

The price for Turkish participation in this Gulf round may well be Kirkuk. No wonder the Russians are alarmed. Iraq would have nothing to repay the $80 million with and Turkey would be stronger.

Allowing Iran to creep closer to Kuwait and to Saudi Arabia would be designed to put fear into the Saudi's. To reduce their demand for gold. But, the Saudi must have gold if they sell oil. It is a political metal in their kingdom. Gold to the bedouin is still gold. A VCR is no substitute, nor is a piece of printed paper from the United States government.

All people do not have a price. Integrity is an individual characteristic. The Mid-East is a part of the world that is profoundly religious. It is not gold or oil which makes Arabia important in that part of the world; it is Mecca. The Saudis have cards to play also.

Good has already come of this. The behavior of the United States in the Gulf has permanently disabused the world of the wisdom of allowing the greenback to be as good as gold in international trade. The politically neutral metal, gold, is going to be the world's choice. Governments are going to go to gold kicking and screaming, because the free ride of printing paper will be over. But, it is the lesser of two evils compared to being a commercial colony of a world imperial United States. Watch Europe. The Asians have already made up their minds.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 15:05 - ID#28861)
We spent 1.2 billion on those Aegis cruisers, don't you want to find out if they work? I'm not sure I follow the effect such a surprise would have on gold. Would the smart money switch to gold/silver or just flee to more U.S. bonds and dollars? I understand/share your antipathy towards the current government and policies, but aren't those policies going to cause more money to go to stocks than metals? A mid-east disaster would roil several markets temporarily, but the reserve currency of the world won't be easily sunk.

Spud Master
(Wed Feb 18 1998 15:06 - ID#273112)
JTF, sure, we got all manner of missiles, gattling guns, microwave weapons, mult-target tracking systems to defeat cruise missiles...

... problem is, they've never been tested in a real-world, threat-rich environment.

If the bad guys want to play by YOUR rules, and cooperate - we might shoot down most of them. Unfortunately, as the Falkland Islands war showed, even low-tech manned fighters with idiot-iron bombs caused enormous damage.

Unfortunately, the bad guys are not likely to play war by OUR rules,and will simply overwhelm the carrier's defenses with a simultaneous multi-missile attack ( sub-sonic Silkworms, or long range Exocets ) .

I personally like Speed's favourite quote: "War is great ... until you are the one who gets to do the dying".

(Wed Feb 18 1998 15:10 - ID#330175)
EB-----------am NOT pullin yer leg THIS time(I ain't cryin


The original message was received at Wed, 18 Feb 1998 09:58:02 -0500 ( EST )
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Subject: [Fwd: Warning: could not send message for past 4 hours]
Date: Wed, 18 Feb 1998 10:58:12 -0400
From: "E. Sargent"
To: Eric Bartell

(Wed Feb 18 1998 15:12 - ID#288157)
JohnDisney--Congratulations on the new mining venture!
To save any possible hassle, and because it strikes one as appropriate, how about Brave New World Mining Corp. privately held, of course, perhaps registered in Liechtenstein? You may wish to do a private placement ( to fund the computer room--hardware and staff? ) and we all hope youll give the Kitco Board a crack at the pp tranche?

Re: That piece of work at the ABX url: I think you nailed the identity of the parties; as for cant lose--gee, thats EXACTLY what the chaps at UBS said! Mozel has ( who would expect anything less! ) a very good point re: being underwritten by govt may place the bets on a firmer slab.

Mozel@How.many.are.there? It is impossible to quantify with certitude the Roosa bonds, after all these years; the Rubin bonds are top secret for obvious reasons...dont noBODY want to talk to ya bout these babies, no matter how off-the-record or how much Veuve Cliquot you pour! Depending on the closeness of the relationship, it is possible to get meaningful direct-eye contact to selected queries about amounts, but thats about it--so far, anyway. Lets try to establish a ball-park guestimate: what would be the bare minimum that would keep the game hobbling along?

Mozel.With.Thanks --

All people do not have a price. Integrity is an individual characteristic.

Lets post this once a day!

Spud Master
(Wed Feb 18 1998 15:14 - ID#273112)
Aegis, aye .. Haggis
Yes Speed, I do want to see how Aegis works in a threat-rich, real world environment. Please have all managers, software engineers, and the relevant Federal authorities responsible on board the Aegis cruiser undergoing the Saddam Hussien "Make My Day" test.

by the way, can I just say that using an Iraq war as an excuse to test American macho play-toys is a sick excuse for testing?

Hey! I'd like to see how Minute Man and PeaceKeeper II ICBMs work as well! Let's nuke Moscow. Then we can see if our anti-ICBM defenses work as well.

Better yet, let's just label a politically group of Americans as "Enemies of the State" and persecute them. I'd like to see how our latest BATF abuse squads deal with helpless women and children.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 15:21 - ID#252150)
Iraq@They Probably Won't Attack
Old Gold-I'm retired from the Cdn Air Force & I have been stating the same misgivings as the retired U.S.A.F. Lt. Colonel, although not as forcefully. However he is correct, if more civilians are killed, it would definitely be a war crime.
Now that the U.N. leader has the consensus of the security council to go to Iraq & attempt to broker a face saving compromise, I think the chances of an attack are greatly diminished. It will appear as if Saddam is caving in, but within a few months the U.N. will declare a time limit for inspections & sanctions.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 15:22 - ID#255217)
Realistisc @ 13:06
I like your post and agree most heartily. I managed to sell at the top two weeks ago due to part "savy" and part luck, although I doubt most would believe that. I haven't always done so well.

Since I am now OUT and want back IN, my delimma is to determine the insertion point. $6.50 is too high in my estimation and $5,50 a little low. $6.00 is a happy medium and SEEMS about right, but it may not happen. It is ohhh so demoralizing to buy in at what seems like a safe price, only to see silver laugh in your face as it slides down, down, down below your "safe" price into oblivion. WB may, I say MAY, change the pattern. If you truly believe that, I may have a bridge to sell you. Anyone?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 15:24 - ID#288157)
All--The story of POTUS and Lewinsky, flag run-up the pole by
Congresswoman Patsy Schroder

POTUS was MENTORING Lewinsky. I kid you not. And it will probably be saluted by a requisite, necessary number of the opinion makers.
The new ambassador to Switzerland will no doubt be Papa Lewinsky.

Lurker 777
(Wed Feb 18 1998 15:24 - ID#317247)
Cheap insurance!
Avalon ( Sorry; gas masks sold out ! I've noticed all of the comments here about Iraq sinking one or two )

FYI: I don't want to start up a thread on Dooms Day scenarios but you can buy New Israeli NBC ( Nuclear, Biological, Chemical ) gas masks for $8.88 ea. item # A8M-8219 1-800-888-3006. Comes in brown or black so you can color coordinate with your WARdrobe and has optional Olive drab military color hood for those nights on the town.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 15:26 - ID#153102)
You vastly underestimate the ability of the politicians in the United States. They picked Cohen and Albright abd Rubin, etc. with full knowledge of the diplomatic effect. Manipulating the feminazi and the rainbow coalition on the homefront is second nature to these boys.

That's 80 Billion, not million that Iraq owes Russia.

When you throw Netanyahu into the mix and suppose that the Oslo accord is going to be reneged on and then suppose gold delivery to them is being stalled in London, you have serious promise breaking to the Arabs. This could all go out of control quickly if shooting starts. Maybe creating an out of control situation is the plan. Ziva's posts come to mind.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 15:42 - ID#238295)
Perception and Reality
James: Thanks for your response! Good chance you are right. This could all be a smokescreen to allow the US a face saving way to end the sanctions which have killed so many in Iraq. Or perhaps the attack threats were a trial balloon, and Bill and his backers are beginning to have second thoughts in view of the tremendous international opposition.

In today's world, any US retreat on the sanctions issue ( or any other issue for that matter ) must be made to seem like a victory. That is why I have argued that an outcome which leave SH in power, sets a timetable to end sanctions, and allows the resumption of arms site inspections would not be a US victory at all -- but would surely be portrayed as such in the media. But the gold market will sense the truth methinks.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 15:45 - ID#330175)
A SPECTACULAR sight that the aewsome ocean can bring(on 'another' boring day for gold)
The annual ice-flows ( ice ) are back and the entire horizon ( about ten miles out ) is a sheet of white...On an 'average year' these bergs will now stick around till late April or early May...

(Wed Feb 18 1998 15:47 - ID#254269)
@ Ted; How long have you lived up there ?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 15:58 - ID#93232)
Where is Swan Island? I found Scaterie....
Studio.R ( A founding member of the ANOTHER Fan Club )
I will be here for some time.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 15:59 - ID#340459)
@Spud Master, Kudo's to your truthful post at 14:28, Specially your following observation:-
Our *criminal* act of leaving Saddam in power after Desert Storm says everything about
American true intent: we care nothing for the Marsh Arabs, the Kurds, the Iraqi people
slaughtered by SH - we only care about cheap oil & keeping the Saudis and Kuwaitis scared
& cowering from SH boggey-man threat. Be proud of your ... government.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:08 - ID#254269)
Dow closed at 8451 (another record, up 53 points or 0.63%), S & P 500 closed at 1032 (up 9.29 points
30 yr. bond at 5.835%. Volume on NYSE at 609 million shares. NASDAQ volume at 689 million shares.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:09 - ID#153102)
@SDRer @NorthAmerican gold mine analysts
SDRer: What do we actually know about Rubin bonds ?

N.A. Mine analysts: Besides ABX are there other mining companies that forward sold along the lines of Barrick ?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:09 - ID#298259)
Up 108% on today's news ( C$1.56 ) . I now anxiously await your analysis.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:12 - ID#359316)
Israeli Threats???
Noticed a report on IRC, about 9.45 a.m. EST, of an Israeli pilot, allegedly saying on a Howard Stern programme ( which I can't get in the UK ) , that if they didn't get a certain undertaking by midnight ( and here I'm not sure which midnight even ) from Iraq, they would be launching attacks... anyone know anything about this? Probably just another piece of IRC tomfoolery. Nothing about it seen on the newswires.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:13 - ID#228100)
Let's Be Optimistic!
Suppose Saddam decides to obtain revenge by unleashing some deadly combination of anthrax or nerve gas on our nation's capitol: Washington, D.C.
But the fate of our beloved president? Our congressional "leaders"? One of our safest, cleanest, and most desirable cities?

Hey, Saddam could do worse. He could shoot, miss and take out Cleveland... ; )

Voyeur Professor
(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:14 - ID#231101)
Continued warnings on Asia

I am still betting that the current political and economic denial syndrome--enhanced by the Iraq diversion--will soon result in a market correction. Enclosed is an academic view of Asian currency difficulties.

Johns Hopkins University professor, Steve H. Hanke
"We're completely puzzled as to why the Clinton administration and the IMF seems intent on destabilizing the currency and the country," Hanke said. "All the other currencies in the region are going up and down with the rupiah. So they [the administration and the IMF] are destabilizing the whole region. If this currency board doesn't go ahead, we're going to have total meltdown."

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:17 - ID#335190)
China & Tao-Kwang @ Treaty with China 1843 - 1844 USofA President John Tyler
"To The Emmperor of China"

" I, John Tyler, President of the United States of America, which states are Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island.. ( 26 ) send you this letter of peace and friendship, signed by my own hand." I hope your health is good..."

" Now, my words are, that the governments of two such great countries should be at peace. It is proper, and according to the will of Heaven, that they should respect, each other, and act wisely...."

" The Chinese love to trade with our people, and to sell them tea and silk, for which our people pay silver, and sometimes other articles. But if the Chinese and the Americans will trade, there shall be rules, so that they shall not break your laws nor our laws...."

"Let there be no unfair advantage on either side. Let the people trade not only at Canton, but also at Amoy, Ningpo, Shang-hai, Fuh-chow, and all such other places as may offer profitable exchange both to China and the United States, provided they do not break your laws nor our laws. We shall not take the part of evil doers. We shall not uphold them that break your laws..."

"And so may your health be good, and may peace reign." "Your good friend"
JOHN TYLER.....July 12 1843

The letter in reply from Chinese emperor to the president, consists of a roll seven feet one inch long, by two feet eleven inches wide. Plain yellow silk, embroidered in gold thread. - two languages - Chinese and Manchu Tartar - Characters of large size. "The size of the letter indicates the respect"

"The Great Emperor presents his regards to the President, and trusts he is well."

"I, the Emperor, having looked up and received the manifest will of Heaven, hold the reins of government over, and soothe and tranquilize the Central Flowery Kingdom, ( American Flag they saw the Stars and imagined them to be flowers - The Flower Flag Country ) regarding all within and beyond the border seas as one and the same family...."

"...your sincerity and friendship being in the highest degree real, and the thoughts and sentiments being with the utmost sincerity and truth kind, at the time of opening and perusing it, my pleasure and delight were exceedingly profound...."

"All and everything they ( Imperial House - Minister and commissioner ) had settled regarding the regulations of commerce, I the Emperor, futher examined with utmost scrutiny, and found they are all perspicuous, and entirely and perfectly judicious, and forever worthy of adherence...."

"Now, bound by perpetual amity and concord, advantage will accrue to the citizens of both nations, which, I trust, must certainly cause the President also to be extremely well satisfied and delighted...."

"Emperor Tao Kwang" December 16 1844

UsofA population 1844 - 18,000,000 + - China population 400,000,000 +

Soooooo, fear of trade with China was not considered a problem. Fear of trade in 1998 should also not be a problem. I expect that Trust, and Respect, was important in 1843-44 as it should be in 1998. Silver was offered China in 1843, gold in 1998 ?

"ACCORDING TO THE WILL OF HEAVEN ( TYLER ) -- WE ARE NOT EVIL DOERS, ( TYLER ) " The citizens of the USofA, are responsible, for the wrong doings of their government/corporations. ( In a Democracy/Liberty/Free/God/Country )

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:17 - ID#254269)
North Korea's economy in shambles

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:22 - ID#359316)
Manic Stock Market Blowoff?
In UK newspaper "The Guardian" today, stock pricing page, heading "Peak of absurdity reached": A small extract:

"Another day, another record. The FTSE 100, buoyed by the long in the tooth but as yet unproven tales about tie-ups among financials, smashed through an all-time high as early as 10.33 yesterday morning and broke through 5700 at 1.45 in the afternoon... institutional fund managers are reluctant to sell the market, even though they regard it as too risky to buy into...

...The absurd movements in the FTSE100 - prompted by the high weightings of banding, drugs and oil stocks- are tempting the Stock Exchange to ponder different ways of calculating the index. One idea being given serious credence involves returning to the pre-Big Bang method of calculating a closing price based on how major players value the market towards the end of the afternoon..."

Bull markets often end in a huge blow-off peak. If this is what is starting to happen in the FTSE and DOW, the old saying "up like a rocket, down like a stick" could well be apt. And that of course is very interesting for GOLD.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:22 - ID#330175)
Avalon + Studio.R + ocean livin
Avalon: About five years-----Studio.R: Swan's Island is off of Bar Harbor MAINE~~~~~

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:23 - ID#153102)
Howard Stern ??? Israeli pilot ??? Did Cohen and Albright and the Rabbi call in, too ?? How hot's the fire, Mama ? Mighty hot & risin. Do you think they get Howard Stern in Riyad and Damascus ? Or just in Baghdad ?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:24 - ID#28585)
Realistic, you obviously have learned some cardinal rules about prudent investing. Buy hysteria is usually a good time to sell and conversely, sell hysteria a good time to buy. I would imagine you do quite well on your investments now that you are well educated in these concepts.

Where silver is concerned, I would bet that ol' Warren B. wrote loads of calls on his silver positions shortly before his announcement. He knows the Warren Effect better than anybody else in the world. ( For example, today, the Warren Effect sent Nike shares climbing... you can be categorically certain that if ol' WB were, in fact, invested in Nike, he was busy selling a good portion of his position ( if not all of it ) today ) .

Moreover, WB knows that, as the populist investors watch the silver price sink ( along with their hearts ) , they begin to panic and sell off. Furthermore, their panic exacerbates as WB's media contacts plant loads of scare articles ( such as India dumping their silver ) . Time to go long....Again, ol' WB steps to the plate and buys heavily into the panic sell ( something I think we are already witnessing ) . I have little doubt that WB is back buying and sustained COMEX withdrawals will likely send the POS roaring back up again.

The point is this...WB is a buy and hold type of guy...but, based on past history, also very much a trader. And, God knows, he is adept at using media influence to get the investment results he wants. I imagine he is in silver for a relatively long haul...and we will see different top points for the metal. Top point number one...we've already seen...another intermediate top point will probably be around 8.50-9.00....the long term top point....once the triple prong buy mania get's going full gear, that's anybody's guess.

Today was a great day for accumulation of silver...and I think it would be naive to imagine that you obtained the long term high price.

Analogously, today is a terrific buying op for gold...populist sentiment remains below negative...yet undeniably, there is something in the wind...announcements to be made this year that categorically will shoot the metal through the roof.

The EMU announcement is a foregone conclusion...unfortunately, before the good news is revealed, many more gold companies ( particularly junior explorers ) will collapse into bankruptcy or be absorbed into extinction. So, one must be careful in which gold companies to invest ( personally, I believe there are only two or three decent "sure bet" gold companies in all N. America that are likely to survive this past gold debacle in any kind of good health...and maybe another three or four that could get enormous spikes once they are absorbed into survivor companies.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:24 - ID#252150)
Ted@you're right- another boring day for gold.
Sold ABX @ 28.25 & am hoping to buy it back @ least a few $ cheaper. When I read your post about the icebergs, it reminded me of when I was stationed on the H.M.C.S. Sioux in the early 60s. The Captain's name was Tony Law & he used to like to get close to a berg & then sit there all day & paint it. He became a pretty well known artist & has some paintings hanging in the National Art Gallery in Ottawa.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:26 - ID#330175)
Studio.R ........and Scaterie Island
The ice-bergs are just the other side of Scaterie Island ( 8-11 miles out from the 'Ponderosa' ) as we currently sit on our asses glued to this ridiculous screen and if this East wind keeps up,it won't be long till they HIT our shores~~~~~~~~~~

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:26 - ID#57232)
Decouple dollar from gold and oil?
Mozel: If that is the goal of the 'powers that be' that would be the ultimate in futility. Personally, given the emergency banking meeting going on right now ( or very soon ) about the world financial crisis, I doubt they would be that foolhardy. AG knows the importance of gold, and that this game of loaning gold to support the dollar will not last forever.

I think the matter in the ME is simply about maintaining political control over a major source of oil. Of course the real reason we should be there is to maintain the peace -- and not actually do anything except be there. If a confrontation between Iran/Irag/Egypt and Israel actually developed, with us in the middle, it could get really difficult. Just like the policeman that tries to stop the battle between husband and wife.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:31 - ID#330175)
'Sweet Baby' JAMES + ice-bergs........................................*go Gold*(you slug)
Yup,them ice-bergs are a hell-of-a lot more stimulating than watchin the gold market---re-ABX: I bought in @ 25.625 and am not so patiently waiting to get my damn money back ( so you think it's goin below the present )

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:37 - ID#359316)
Cohen, Albright and the Rabbi, live in Riyadh, Damascus, Amman and Baghdad... yes, I think you have them bang to rights.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:38 - ID#284246)
Silver in context

Here's my interpretation of where silver stands. I'm a bit of a novice at this so I'm very open to comments!

First of all, unless the fundamentals dramatically change I think we're on to a winner, although silver has a history of being a bit volatile. So I personally intend to play a fairly conservative game.

I see the closing prices since last July as forming a classic wave pattern.

Starting at 422ish, we completed the first wave at 528. The second wave represented an aprox 50% retracement to 478. The third to 627. The fourth to 553 ( another 50%ish retracement ) , and finally the fifth to 781.

My guess is that the five waves above are part of one wave ( 422 - 781 ) and that the retracement now taking place will be based not on wave 5's advances, but on the grander wave ( 422 - 781 ) .

For this retracement, my guess is that we'll bottom out at around 600 which represents aprox a 50% retracement from what I think is wave 1 ( 422 - 781 ) of a larger cycle.

From 600 I anticipate the commencement of wave one of the next cycle ( wave 2 of the grander cycle ) .

When and where? DUNNO, I'm working on that! Although I wouldn't wait until we get to 600 before hopping in as we might not stay there very long! ( and of course I might be wrong!!! )

There's a good site that gives you ( daily? ) Comex figures. I've lost the URL. When I find the site again I'll post it, or can someone post the URL?.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:38 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.39 ( This is not a new high )

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:39 - ID#153102)
A demon-cracy is not what the United States of America was in the days of Tyler. Notice that Tyler lists each State.

The United States of America was converted into a demon-cracy called the United States and put under law martial by the United States Army & Navy in 1860-65. We are governed by law martial here. I suppose the people under a constitutional dictatorship are theoretically as morally responsible for the acts of their government as the ordinary German was for what the Nazi government did. But, I must say half-informed historical postings and self-righteous pomposity from people whose own government aids and abets this one sets poorly and annoys the hell out of me.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:40 - ID#57232)
Missive from Steve Hanke
Voyeuer Professor: Thank you for the Steve Hanke message. He states what we have suspected: trouble if the Indonesian currency board does not go through. The internal stability of these countries should take first priority. Matters of who owes whom what can be resolved later.

It makes you wonder if the IMF knows what they are doing, doesn't it? Perhaps they are bureaucratically muscle-bound from being in existence too long without internal changes. Or, perhaps politicians have wrested control from whatever competent bankers they have in their employ. Hasn't the IMF been around since the 20's or earlier?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:40 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .245

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:41 - ID#338289)
Whoops, for the URL

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:41 - ID#338289)
All: Good Y2K Site - Rumor Central
All: Here's a good Y2K site that's been up for a few weeks. It's titled Rumors Central. I've reproduced the intro below.

"Misinformation regarding Y2K is rampant. Rumors, assertions, predictions, demagoguery, FUD, bluster, cover-up, and denial abound.  For the layman, it is almost impossible to sort fact from fiction.

In an effort to help untangle the truth from the rumors, the working group has assembled the table below and has attempted to categorize the relative fact/fiction content of each. We are not attempting to be knowledgable in all these subject areas. We are only trying to stimulate people to dig up the facts of the situation and pass them on to us to incorporate in this page.  The categories are: Rumor, Speculation, Prediction, Unconfirmed, Fit to print, Contradicted. For more information, see the category definitions. If you have a rumor to submit, or you have a source to confirm a rumor as fact, goto our submissions page."

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:42 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 45.23

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:43 - ID#28585)
You seem to have a sudden interest in ABX. If you so desire I would be happy to post my old letter to Mr. Munk.

Much more interesting than the letter were the extreme responses: from the Globe and Mail...and from ABX itself. The implicit threats of litigation were very "overboard" and caused no dearth of mirth on the part of my wife and I.

You see, I struck a nerve of truth somewhere...the concepts I presented rattled them...otherwise, my little letter to the editor would have been simply ignored. After all, in the grand world of gold investment, who am I in the relative scheme of things?? Yes, I have a fairly decent stash...I work and speechify in the realm of entertainment media...and I have a high powered-education...but I am in no way shape or form in the league of the Munks, Buffetts, or other assorted centi-millionaires plus.

As I told my wife, the greatest power one can have in this world is not the power of a billion is the power of a unique idea or a compelling perception of truth. Money, in and of itself, is useless if you have no idea what to do with it.

Believe me...there is amazing manipulation going on in the gold market right now. It is not is in the realm of certitude.

The ultimate aim: not merely profit...but also the monopolization ( or oligopolization ) of the entire world gold supply.

I intend to remain heavily invested in PM's when the manifestation of this gross manipulation is made apparent to the masses.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:45 - ID#258129)
Charles Keeling - EURO will fail - I dont think so
Charles Keeling, Your 14:28 - "computer changes that need to be made in the next few months to implement the EURO are LARGE" - thats right, but A lot of companies are working on it quite some time. In fact, most of them do. It is practically impossible to find a programmer. Example from Dutch newspaper add ( translated from Dutch ) : "Do you know, that a headhunter ask 30000 guilders ( about US$15000 ) to find you. Our company decided to pay this amount as a bonus directly to you, if you will come to work for us". Besides, in 1999 there will be no cash transactions in EURO, only bank transfers between businesses. Main players in initial steps will be banks and accountancy offices, but it looks that these guys will be ready by the end of this year.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:46 - ID#340459)
@Voyeur Professor, Sir, The game plan of International bankers/IMF/BIS nexus is to ask Soros to
create havoc and uncertainity in SEAsian currency markets, That results in massive demand for US $ under 'flight to quality', decimitating their local equity markets and screwing their Industrial Infrastructure. These Billions pouring out of Asia in panic are vacuumed instantly by USA through T-Bills ( IOU's ) and other market paper, ACT TWO comes into play where these same Billions of $ obtained from Asia is then loaned back as their survival kit ( Loans always denominated in US $ ) through IMF grandiosely with it's one consistent primary demand "To Devalue the local currency" against $, which consistently devalues all local production and yokes the borrower against rising currency, thus wiping out years of hardwork of millions of poor folks.

I guess the Time Magazine put Soros on the Cover last year as "Greatest Philanthropist in the World" for good reason. He has helped fill his pocket as well as pockets of all those that demand World Philanthrophy.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:48 - ID#93232)
@Teddo...."Top" 'o da evenin' to ya'"
Time for a "wood run" 'fore the icebergs attack! Be sure to look up Miguel Anderson in Bar damn groove drummer and Otis Redding soundalike ( but anglo ) alive today. And as always, Eat More Pizza!...Damnit, Another!...I ordered pepperoni!!! Goofus!!! Get outta' here!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:49 - ID#57232)
Voyeur Professor: I am still an inexperienced student of the manias and madnesses of crowds. As I recall, George Bush's popularity was at its height right after the Gulf War euphoria. Perhaps what will happen is that we will pound a few empty bunkers, still up a little dust, and make the US people 'feel good'. Then -- afterwards, the euphoria will fade, and the xxxxgates will start to have their negative effects. Then we will have our bear market.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:50 - ID#316238)
Anyone with any info re the spike in PGU today?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:55 - ID#376309)
I do not believe that will happen again. The decline in euphoria had more to do with the economy going down then anything else. When the economy and stock market go down so do people's feelings. - At some point the economy will peak and so will the stock market, it will happen one day.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:57 - ID#153102)
@JTF re: oil-greenback-gold relationship
All I can say is that you appear not to comprehend the sine qua non for an international Keynesian paper fiat currency: unlimited credit. Any link however remote with any substance fatally compromises a paper fiat currency's access to unlimited credit.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 16:58 - ID#28861)
My favorite quote is: "The best defense is the one you never have to use."
According to this news blurb the "sea skimmer" is big, too heavy for small craft and can only fly 190 miles. The Russians haven't sold any to anybody and they have never been battle tested. Hmmmmm.....
I agree with the analysis that we won't do anything. Clinton won't risk a drop in the polls. His wet finger is in the air testing the winds of public opinion constantly and he doesn't have a consensus on this at all.

Lurker 777
(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:00 - ID#317247)
Have you ever heard of a drummer named Mason. Jazz I think?

Bully Beef
(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:01 - ID#259282)
Price of gold spiked
It spiked? If it did was because I topped up on my RRSP with a precious metal fund. Oh well... even if I don't get rich on it I can blame THEM for causing it.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:04 - ID#316232)
Iraqi war
SPUD MASTER... your 13:44 reply; Real analysis requires that we step out of our own personal misconceptions and take an accurate look at the real situation.

Having more than my share of combat air time over North Vietnam, I think I understand the concept of war and its misery.

I also appreciate your anti-Clinton rhetoric, but the sinking of a carrier ( lets assume that it can be done, which I don't ) would be similar to the sinking of the 'Maine' or 'Pearl Harbor' to most Americans. It would be a call for serious blood. Please refrain form getting too personal here, because I don't think that way, but the American public would.

By the way, B-52's and B-1 could fly from Diego Garcia until we run out of bombs of gas, which might be several years. Only one runway in the entire country of Iraq would be left smooth ( so UN peacekeepers could land to accept SH's head on a platter and an unconditional surrender ) . Any aircraft flown to Iran would be bought from them and destroyed ( if the price is high enough, Iran would sell Iraqi aircraft in a second ) .

After the second carrier, and eventually third carrier task force, eliminated every palace and military complex in the country, we would land a force on the beach with food for those who cared to surrender. We would then drive inland with humongous amounts of food and medicine for our 'friends'.

We might even supply the Kurds and give them the northern 1/3 of the country. All we would want is the body of SH.

No nukes would be necessary or desired. After a few months, the Iraqis would be glad we won.

If a carrier were sunk, I think that the dollar would crash for several hours to days and gold would spike, possible to $350 or more ( only 17% ) . Over a few days, gold would probably return to normal as the dollar recovered.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:08 - ID#153102)
What were the key points in your letter ?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:10 - ID#93232)
@Lurker 777
No, sir....but that doesn't mean anything....I'm pretty ignorant of the current know what all the guys say..."Yea, we got four blokes in the band and a drummer."

Spud Master
(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:11 - ID#273112)
Your words betray an arrogance of which the rest of the world is well aware. You would effect genocide on the people of Iraq, vs. bringing Saddam Hussien to justice.

As I have already pointed out, we could have done that during Desert Storm. We did not. We did not because of cold-blooded criminal intent
to control Middle East oil by virtue of keeping SH alive & threatening to Saudi & Kuwait.

As for your braggaduccio rhetoric that bombing would force Iraq's surrender ... for someone who flew in Vietnam, you seem oblivious to the fact that our much vaunted bombing did not win us the war.

We lost.

All we got was 55,000 dead & MIA Americans for the glory of yet another bunch of politicians.

Feel free to offer up your own children for the greater glory of Clinton, Gore, Albright, Rubin et al.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:12 - ID#57232)
Unlimited Credit? Perhaps you are jesting!
Mozel: You should read Alan Greenspan's lecture to the Cato society -- October 1997. He understands that the gold standard actually worked in the past - to ensure that the country that failed to control their currency inflation lost their gold to countries that were able to control inflation. Some relatively modern countries ( post 1800's ) -- I forget which ones -- were each on the gold standard for nearly 100 years. It was only when the countries failed to confront reality that the gold standard failed. AG understands this very well.

You should read about the Univ of Warwick Economic Study in 1991 where the entire economic symposium was based on going back on the gold standard. I have the book with all the associated articles at home -- will give you the reference if you wish.

Credit was not a topic discussed in this Warwick Economic Symposium, but I'm sure that one can go on a gold standard ( more like a gold 'band' ) and still have credit. But -- 'unlimited credit' -- that should not be allowed. Donald has pointed out that one might place M1 on the gold standard, and still have M2 and M3 as we have now -- hopefully with internationally standardized rules.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:18 - ID#413195)
in sacramento
Charles Keeling: Imagine you are a sheikh -- Prince Fahd, say. A man of refinement and culture. A highly educated man. You're sitting on your throne in your finest silken robes, an acre of gold-inlaid polished marble all about you. You are being waited on hand and foot, when someone throws open the door and in comes Madeline Albright, clomping toward you like some pig.

She makes her way across the marble floor toward you. You lean forward, listening to see if she is grunting. As you pointed out, she wears no veil. Even though *she* was not required to do it, the Queen of England herself wore a small veil when she visited you, to demonstrate her respect for your culture and your country's customs. Perhaps, Albright is making a statement for women's liberation. But, here? Now? You are repelled. Albright's mission is already a failure.

For The First Felon to send Sec'y of Defense Cohen to the Mideast as an emissary was as great a mistake as sending Albright. For Cohen, too, is of Jewish descent. This is, indeed, an insult of the first order, and one that could not have been accidental; for when have the Americans ever sent an emissary to Israel during a crisis who was of Arabic descent, or who was a Moslem? They know better on the one hand, and they know better on the other. Yet they do it anyway. Arrogance and contempt incarnate.

I guess Americans just like to go it alone in the world.

IMMHO, this war is a forgone conclusion, despite Annan's last minute trip to Baghdad. Gold and Oil are both headed up. Get onboard while you can.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:18 - ID#227290)
Frustrated & YRI

I've had a llot of computer trouble today. Finally broke out the laptop. There are some spectacular numbers in the YRI drill results.
The holes were only drilled 45 feet or so. They never got to the sulphides, so we know nothing about that section.

These intercepts are all "at" surface. There will be a very low strip ratio if a mine develops.

The company says it has another zone 2 kilometers away that is similar. The deposit will need to add tonnage to become viable. If they can start tying zones together, then we could have a mine.

I need two things: 1 ) to get a map of the drill holes and see how the deposit is running., and 2 ) find out where this is in Santa Cruz. You know Coeur d'Alene operates a silver mine just across the Chilean border from Santa Cruz.

From what we know, this has the makings of a minable deposit. Company says ore is between $100 and $300 per ton. That's a pretty wide range. In gold equivalents, that is .33 OPT to 1.0 OPT.

This type of grade can build tonnage in a hurry.

Let me call the company tomorrow and see what I can find out.

The Preacher

Spud Master
(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:19 - ID#273112)
One more point, larry_n...
your statement:

"Any aircraft flown to Iran would be bought from them and destroyed ( if the price is high enough, Iran would sell Iraqi aircraft in a second ) ."

indicates how comicly little you know of the Iranians.

You must be thinking of morally bankrupt westerners, ethically rotted-out, well prepared for treachery by Western television & movies, dithering over important questions such as "shall I eat a peach?".

The Iranians would, however, offer you the chance to convert to Islam in second, just before they handed you over to their women to stone to death.

I've observed some American pilots talk tough - but in a one on one dogfight sans the legions of computers, missiles etc. that give them the easy-edge, they would just wet their Depends and scream "this isn't supposed to happen...!"

(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:26 - ID#273227)
JTF/D.A. -

Before I hit the links, I would like to add my 2cents to this debt debate. In D.A.'s example of the plow, the debt was used to create a productive asset - a plow. My fear is that most of today's debt is not being used to create productive assets or the correct assets. I've never believed the government can allocate better then the market, so the 5+ trillion in government debt is in question. Then we stop at the credit card debt, does anyone know anyone who uses a credit card to finance something productive? I don't. Let's stop at home mortages next, I'll wager almost every house in the country has been refinanced and the money wasn't spent on improving the house. I'm sure there are other examples, but I'm late. Be back later.

Could someone direct me to the information on subscribing to Kitco. Where/how/when to pay.

Charles Keeling
(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:30 - ID#344225)
I am a retired programmer/analyst who
worked installing computers in Banks & S & L's
from 1963-1991. Believe me--I know everything
about the Y2K bug. I know what it will take
to fix it, and I know that financial
institutions that are not workinig on it full
time right now as we speak will not be
finished in time.

NOW--If those working on Y2K drop the project
for 6-9 months to do the EURO modifications
they will be in jeopardy of missing the
Y2K deadline. They may make the EURO deadline
but it will be a moot point.

Everyone has an opinion. This is mine.

I wish the EURO would make it. The start
date is 1-1-99.

What Country in their right mind would give
up the right to print their own "funny" money?

France is going along with it because they
think that their candidate will be the head
of the newly formed EURO CB. 150 German
financiers went on record just 3-4 days ago
saying that they do not want the EURO to
become a reality.

Italy being a member of the EURO is a big joke.


(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:34 - ID#57232)
The Yakhont - Supersonic, but a bit big for a Speed Boat
Speed: So it is about 27 feet long with a launch weight of 2.5 tons. Sounds like it would be a bit large for a typical speed boat. But -- the Russians might want to test it out in the 'field' as they say. Hopefully the Irani's and Iraqi's don't have even one. Given the range, those speed boats would not need to be very near. What if a fishing boat disguise was used? I doubt our military has had experience trying to shoot one of these down.

I guess the next question is just how much damage one of these could do to one of our carriers, or a large cruiser. I bet it would have much more of a kick than an Exocet.

If soldiers can take out tanks with portable missles, it wont be long before our navy is at risk for such attacks. Perhaps we need Patriot missle batteries on our cruisers -- hope we already have them, and that they can take out a Yakhont launched at 25 miles.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:35 - ID#153102)
@JTF re: oil-greenback-gold relationship
Comparing AG's testimony to Congress with his lecture to Cato indicates the man tailors his words to his audience. You estimate the influence of U of Warwick far, far higher than I.

Unlimited credit is what fiat currency is all about. It is what Keynes was all about. The argument for it was that it would make a financial crisis due to illiquidity an impossibility.

AG and Rubin and Camdessus do not employ the President and Congress. The President and Congress employ AG, Rubin, and Camdessus. And the President and Congress will decide what shall be allowed. And since 1860, they have liked to allow unlimited credit to be at their disposal. Arabia says they operate a cash and carry oil business and cash means gold. It's that simple to me, really. If you don't see it that way, OK.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:40 - ID#252150)
Richard Burke@Re: K. Roberts' course.
Save yourself the money & buy a book titled "Winner Take All" by W. Gallacher. I did the Roberts' "course" & the biggest thing that it's got going for it is that it's very basic. So basic that you can access several web sites & learn enough basic TA to trade. The stuff that works for stocks works for futures. The main TA tool I got from his book is
1,2,3 tops & bottoms, but you don't need to spend $200 U.S. to learn that.
The Gallacher book is excellent. He exposes many of the courses & trading systems for the BS that they are. The worst thing that can happen to you is to think that you have the secret, because some variable will come out of left field & blindside you every time.

Charles Keeling
(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:40 - ID#344225)
Yes...That is how I see it. I think
I would have MA beheaded and mounted over the
fireplace with an apple in her mouth.

The US shows ARROGANCE and a total lack
of diplomacy. It is an embarassment to the
people of the US to have her in the position
that she occcupies. But, then again, BC is
also an embarrasment.

I think I will join Disney in Australia.
( or was it South Africa? )

(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:46 - ID#93232)
Albright is a good example of cheap embalmment.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:47 - ID#316232)
SPUD MASTER... I'm almost embarrassed to read your last comment.

At no time did I say we should fight this war, especially for Clinton. Your brain is up and locked. I was discussing what we could do if a carrier were sunk, so I don't think SH is stupid enough to try.

By the way, if you will read your real history and not the NY Times, the Vietnam War ended after the bombing of North Vietnam in December 72 and January 73 when we did what we should have done years before. They sued for peace when they ran out of missiles and realized that we could do whatever we wanted. They signed a peace treaty and we quit bombing and most of us came home. By the way, there were fewer civilian casualties during this time of precision bombing from 30000 feet than bombs dropped. Only military targets were hit. TWO YEARS LATER, in 1975, the NVN army trashed the agreement and invaded SVN directly with a frontal attack ( similar to a German Blitzkreig ) over the DMZ with tanks and a large invading force after the US Congress refused to send any more aid to the SVN government. The war was militarily won in 1973, and given away by Senator Frank Church and his buddies in 1975. This version is not well known due to misconceptions maintained by idiots. Apparently one was your history professor.

Try and be rational if you want a serious discussion.

As I remember, gold went up after the fall of Saigon, because it was viewed as a loss by the US, which it was. The same will happen if we suffer a loss in this engagement.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:52 - ID#26669)
T'ai Kung spoke of this 3100 years ago
T'ai Kung was the advisor of King Wen of the Chou dynasty about 1100 B.C. recorded an answer to today's Kitco discussion. Of the 'seven harms' he described the first was 'men without knowledge or strategic planning ability are generously rewarded and honored with rank. Therefore, the strong and courageous who regard war lightly take their chances in the field. The king must be careful to not employ them as generals.'

T'ai Kung considered the Tao of moral effective government to be the basis for survival and foundation for warfare...obviously ahead of his time. He described steps in civil offensive against the enemy to include destruction of moral government. 'Twelfth, support his dissolute officials in order to confuse him. Introduce beautiful women and licentious sounds in order to befuddle him. Send him outstanding dogs and horses in order to tire him. From time to time allow him great power in order to entice him [to greater arrogance]. Then investigate Heavan's signals and plot with the world against him.

Sound familiar? I think its interesting that slick willie's biggest supporters are the Red Chinese...

(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:54 - ID#372344)
@ Heard on the Street.....Iraq,...Gold.... mozel....
Well we have a second crash of a US fighter today, this time a
B1 Bomber, taking off in the States for ME....If shooting starts in
ME, judging by the crashes so far, I believe US soldiers are unsually
nervous this time around, and that can spell big trouble in the battlefield,
witness the large numbers of deaths cused by "friendly" fire in the
Gulf War....A history making PR Town Hall "meeting" to sell Iraq
Bombing,just concluded with, Cohen, Albright, and Bueger, in Ohio
State Univ. Clinton Administration must be hiding under their respective desks after that debacle, the "people" were yelling, objecting and shouting obsceneties at said panel. It appears that selling this new
Iraq "thing" to the US people is going to be just a little harder than
first thought, but in the end BJ Clinton only needs to write the Order...
Gold again today held up rather well under the circumstances, and
the US bonds took a bit of a hit down about 14/32, when one
would have expected a flight to "quality"? to the US, I suppose the
rest of the world is starting to look at US fundamentals?.....
If the US does not strike after all this war talk and build up, it will
be because "world" opinion is starting to turn against the US, as
I stated before either way the US is in a NO WIN situation, ....
I noticed that some here are coming around to liking ABX, hmmmm....

mozel....I believe one of the reasons that some here are a bit
cautious about Another has to do more with like minded posters
Big Trader etc... who had been bullish on Gold back at 370 , and
who have disappeared into the incredible vastness of cyberspace....
Of course this does not mean that some of the theories proposed
by this "Another" are not meritorious, there can be little doubt, As
I myself have pointed out here for months now, that a "relationship"
between Gold ,US$ and Oil exists, back in 1980, it was that very
Oil US$ relationship that was appearing to break down, with the rise
and threat to Oil US$ deal, and thus threat to world reserve currency
status, of Iranian fundamentalism, which catapulted Gold to over 800, and further no suprise when said revolution failed and most all threats to
Oil US$ had been set aside, Gold plummets, that is until the current crisis.....I am certain that most informed posters here have/will see said relationship, however, the exact outcome as per Another is most certainly
not assured IMHO, this will be a very long drawn out affair over many
years, which will give once in a lifetime trading opportunities for golbugs who truly believe that Gold is "THE" currency of last resort......

stay tuned....

(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:58 - ID#238295)
stock market blowoff.
If this is not a stock market blowoff, I don't know what is Reminds me of 1929 in stocks or gold in 1980.

How high is the top/ Who knows? My guess still is 9000, but 10,000 or even 11,000 cannot be ruled out. Small caps still lagging and I suspect we will need to see a big move in that sector before it all ends. But blowoffs never last long, and many who are sure they will be able to get out in time will inevitably be left holding the bag.

Steve Puetz, despite his terrible timing, was right on one point. This market must either surge or crash. There is no in between. Not any more.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:59 - ID#57232)
I think it is not that simple
Mozel: I think you are simplifying too much. Unlimited credit is a ticket to world wide disaster, and AG and RR, as well as those 'august' individuals at the BIS know it.

By the way you should review who works for whom. The US Federal Reserve is an independently chartered organization, separate from any part of the US government. I sometimes wonder if we work for the FED and not the other way around. I am exaggerating about us working for the FED of course, but just think if we had the Keynsian approach to unlimited credit right now, and the FED worked for Congress. I shudder to think what mess we would be in right now. Gold would probably be $1000/oz, and I would expect Fort Knox would be empty.

As you probably know, a number of countries are moving toward an ( essentially ) independent Federal Reserve bank like ours.

The FED may not always be doing what is in the best interest of the

American people, but they do a far better job of handling our credit than the US Congress. That would be like giving the chickens to the fox.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 17:59 - ID#228100)
Charles Keeling - Your Y2K Assessment is 100% Correct!
I am also a systems veteran, but have never worked in the banking industry. What are your opinions regarding:

- Will PM stocks and mutual funds will survive the Y2K issue? Banks? Or should we only buy physical?

- WHEN are companies going to realize that they actually have major problems? Most companies currently feel that business issues, such as the Euro, EDI, are higher priority. I thought that most companies would rally around the issue at the beginning of 1998.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 18:02 - ID#252150)
Ted@ABX-I think we're talking different currencies..
I bought it for 22 Cdn & sold it for 28.25. I have no idea of where it's going. All I do is sell them when they stop going up, or if I'm short-buy them when they stop going down. I'm not real positive about AU because I think the Japanese are finding more ways to screw up their banks/financial system. I can't see POG make much of a move up until $U.S. goes into a sustained decline.
Had a nice round of golf yesterday. Sunny & mild, but the course was soggy.
Did you catch Ross Reb on Leno. He's quite personable & really put Whistler on the map.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 18:09 - ID#316232)
Iranian logic
SPUD... After seeing that the new Iraqi govt might be pro-Western, Iran would not like them to get their planes back. I can imagine for a price of 20 mil apiece, every Iraqi a/c in Iran would suddenly burn up. At a certain price, I'm sure we can find an infidel or two.

There are also plenty of Iraqis who would like to see SH removed, so it would be to our benefit to find them.

This discussion would be more civil if you would restrict you adjectives. Imagine that your mother is listening.


(Wed Feb 18 1998 18:14 - ID#410194)
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after trading today:

Gold: Rose 417 troy ounces to 442,411

Silver: Fell 113,560 troy ounces to 91,825,814 -A new 15 year low

Copper: Rose 306 short tonnes to 105,975

Farfel, thanks for your interesting point of view regarding Silver, posted earlier this afternoon.

All: There are currently about 227 million ounces of Silver open for March delivery.... with apparently about only 91 million ounces in the Comex warehouses, the situation remains strange indeed!

Finally, those watching ( and hoping ) for a bottom in Copper: it's now worth considering some upside potential near term! While the final low may not yet be in place, the downside potential is now quite limited...

Spud Master
(Wed Feb 18 1998 18:17 - ID#273112)
fear, anger, denial, acceptance...
The bombing did not win the war.

We lost Vietnam. Period.

We couldn't bomb the North Koreans into submission.

Bombing did not win WWII.

German war production was actually UP during the highest point of bombing.

Still, the myth is perpetuated that strategic bombing wins wars.

What I find repugnant is your belief that fly-boys - toys of politicans - can win a war by bombing the hell out of helpless civilians while keeping their own dainty fingers clean. Well, you do keep your fingers clean, but you've never won a war.

You yourself could not handle 10 Russian AA-11 missiles hurtling at your plane, despite towed-rf decoys, flares & fancy maneuvers. Neither could an Amercian carrier do anything about 30 Russian sea skimmers. knock some down, then take the rest in the side & go up in flames.

Why rail and screech for total obliteration of the Iraqis? It was YOUR President who has recklessly & foolishly endangered the lives of American troops for his own glory.

You *should* be embarassed.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 18:21 - ID#333232)
Hecklers Disrupt US Iraq Policy Meeting

Spud Master
(Wed Feb 18 1998 18:23 - ID#273112)
and you, larry_n, can imagine
that the American sons and daughters whose lives are
now at risk thanks to Clinton et al, are listening to you.
You who are Safe. Warm. Well fed. Out of harm's way.

While they, helpless to control their fate,
wait and wonder.

War is great, until YOU have to do the dying.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 18:23 - ID#153102)
@JTF I'm a simple individual. I also think I know where $20 trillion of debt and liabilities came from.

@TZ Maybe you didn't read the posts between JohnD, SdRer, and myself regarding the ABX hedge program. It provides compelling evidence validating ANOTHER's scenario. I did not interpret his messages as a simple bull call. And I have not really arrived at my conclusions directly from his messages. We also have Ken Coleman's report, the goldfields report of 640 tons of Mid-East demand in the most recent annual, the Chinese purchase of 167 tons, and inferences from the fundamental facts. I don't know the motive for those posts by ANOTHER, but I think little people like me and thee should be grateful. Because nothing but light gives confidence amidst darkness.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 18:31 - ID#22956)
Ted and Paddling and Profiting
Ted - paddle your kayak out to one of those 'bergs and rope it. We can 'slam' the H2O market and profit big time. With a couple of well timed h2o puts we can announce an impending water 'glut' driving the price WAY down. I smell a way to profit ( ? ) . Hmmmm...water.... ( it's kinda like gold ) ....................More later...don't tell anyone our secret. watch some grain fallage...... ( what do you think of the loonie now? ) ..EH?


(Wed Feb 18 1998 18:32 - ID#227290)
U.S. Debt & Gold Analysis

The page housing the U.S. debt figures show the debt has grown $36 billion since FEb. 13. It now stands at $5.51 trillion, unless I'm reading it wrong.

As for gold, I like what I see. I thought we might have bottomed and turned last Thursday. But it wasn't to be. Here's where we are now according to David Marantette, the analyst I follow:

Feb. 16. "Even though we have a couple of short-term targest to the downside, it is currently getting harder to knock gold down. As we get closer to any cycle bottom in the next few days, a sharp two or three day price drop in gold or gold stocks could present a buying opportunity."

Would you really like to be short gold at this point. We had a $30 runup, and now, during the retracement period, it is having a very hard time falling. Since the top, we've been hanging around the $300 level for a full two weeks.

Also, the peak on the January move exceeded the peak on the December move. And the bottom looks to be correspondingly higher as well.

Silver and the pgms have retraced much more than gold since their last runups. No gold is hanging in very well.

As for time, April gold spiked to $310 briefly on Feb 5. We are two weeks into a 3-4 week pullback. By month's end, it will be over barring the unforeseen. March should see another rally, this time challenging the 200-day MA around $318. If we take that out, then gold will take aim at the October 97 high of $340.

Watch closely now.

The Preacher

(Wed Feb 18 1998 18:33 - ID#258129)
@Charles Keeling - EURO and Y2K
It is not that I wish too much EURO to happened - I live in Holland and our guilder is much stronger then currencies of most other potential EMU members. Closer it comes, more people are worried about it - what will happened with savings, pension plans, etc. But I doubt that necessity to change software can stop it - maybe some political events. Y2K problem is known here and guess what - companies upgrade their software now and trying to solve both problems - Y2K and EURO at a time. No one will develop new software twice. One of the biggest Dutch banks, ING ( the one who bought Barings ) has a budget about NLG 1B for these two problems. A few days ago I spoke with one guy in ABN-AMRO ( other major Dutch bank ) - he told that something about 4000 computer people are working in this bank to solve EURO and Y2K problem. Technically, it will be there in time, IMO.

Charles Keeling
(Wed Feb 18 1998 18:34 - ID#344225)
@ YEAR 2000
RE: The physical or stocks. I buy the
stocks and take delivery of the certificates.
I hold some physical, but I think you get more
bang for your buck with stocks. At least back
in 79-80 that was the case for sure.

The Social Security Administration has been
working on the Y2K bug for like five years,
and they are not finished. They say that
those who have not started are in for a big

As I have read recently, only 1 out of 6
Fortune 500 companies have started on the Y2K

I know the thinking of top management in the
financial institutions. They think that the
Programmers and Analysts are always taking
too long in every project, and they simply do
not understand why. They think: A date
change- that's simple. They just dont know
what was done with that date in all
of the calculations throughout the whole

Back in 80, I knew it was going to be major.
No one would listen to me. Other fish to fry
you know. Most top brass knew that they would
be retired before it blew. What's to worry?

Of course everyone "assumed" that the old
main frame would be history well before year
2000. Remember? The PC's are going to take

During my time we had to write entire systems
because packages did not exist. I was Manager
of Systems for NCR on the Florida Gold Coast
during that time, and we installed and
implemented lots of Banks & S&L's. I think if
you follow the big companies progress, or lack
thereof, and buy PUT'S on their stock some
real money can be made.

This problem was NOT created by Programmers
of the 60s 70s & 80s. Our hardware, straight
from the factory, came pre loaded with that
one byte year problem. We used to joke about
it back in the early years. Everyone knew it
would blow at 2000.

The Year 2000 bug will teach top management
to listen to the programmers. Some people
only learn from experience.

GO GOLD...............................

Charles Keeling
(Wed Feb 18 1998 18:49 - ID#344225)
WOW!! 4,000 people in one bank to
solve the EURO and Y2K problem. Better buy
calculators for those guys and go back to
ledger cards. Calculate the interest by hand.

This Bank has gone for quantity to solve the
problem instead of quality. BAD BAD BAD.
They will be falling all over each other.

Yes....I know that some are moving to new
hardware and going to solve the problem at
the same time. May as well upgrade while
making modifications. You can also get a
lot more test and debug time that way.

I hope they make it to the EURO because I
need higher gold prices.

Why did your Central Bankers sell their gold
reserves? Did they pay off debt ( in order to
get in the EURO ) with the proceeds?

I know, a big shortage of programmers. Should
I come out of retirement and fix the problem
that I created?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 18:53 - ID#57232)
Gold Standard
All: I think it is time to repeat what has been discussed many times on this site. And -- that is we will eventually move to a gold standard. We know that modern currency transactions ( even credit production ) can exist with a gold standard, using modern computing methods. The only roadblock is that the 'powers that be' refuse to confront the folly of paper currencies without any anchor to a hard currency. A nearly 100-year bad, addictive habit is hard to break.

The EURO is unconsciously ( I think ) moving in that direction, by demanding that gold support the EURO. That is nearly heresy for a Keynesian currency. The most likely scenario is that the EURO launch will not be without formal gold backing, and that it will falter. The dollar will continue to do well for a while, unless we have inflated ourselves to oblivion, or we have some sort of financial debacle.

The first gold-backed currency will emerge Pheonix-like out of SEAsia, because the Asians have a traditional respect for gold, and the memory of the current currency debacle is very recent ( right now ) . I would guess that this new Asian gold-baked currency might surface in two years or less.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 18:55 - ID#432148)
Spur Master
Your comments regarding air power. What took out Hitlers A-Bomb research site whereby he may well have beaten the U.S. to the A-Bomb. What delivered the A-Bombs that ended the war with Japan. And at the end of the Europeon war Germany had been reduced to very little production. I certainly will agree in the end ground forces must take the land and govern it but I wouldn't denigrate air power. And in the Gulf War air power played a major role also. Too bad Bush didn't go all the way.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 18:55 - ID#372344)
@ mozel..... another "Another"......
A few points I'd like to make for the record, I am and have been an
ABX shareholder for months now, and in numerous of my post have have spoken out on hedges and it's "in the know"directors, as for the Coleman report , it was posted here weeks ago.... The information in the
Goldfields report I posted yesterday was also discussed here weeks
ago, as well as the Chinese purchase and own production of Gold.....
I guess what I'm saying is that whoever Another is, 'they" have
obviously been lurking Kitco thouroughly. Just as an example
I wrote a post to Another on Dec. 07/97 challenging his view
at the time that all Gold stocks were going to be worthless, his
view was that only physical Gold would hold value. I noticed now
that he has "varied" his view saying that countries could "encourage"
mining houses to produce Gold and buy it back from them, so in effect
stocks will have value in respective countries....I believe that Another
is learning from posters at Kitco, just as we learn from him/her and each other.....After all no "one" knows everything.....

(Wed Feb 18 1998 18:57 - ID#20137)
Date: Wed Feb 18 1998 18:14
Realistic ( COMEX DATA ) ID#410194:
All: There are currently about 227 million ounces of Silver open for March delivery.... with apparently about only 91 million ounces in the Comex warehouses, the situation remains strange indeed!

Realsitic it is strange indee. The bullion bear has consistent shown no fear in situations that would make the most harden trader tremble. It makes me think that the government is indeed involved, money means nothing to them. They print as much as the need, who else can strongly push a market lower as supplies shrink.

Can you please include in your reports the amounts of silver and gold elligible for delivery. Thanks for your continued help in posting these stock levels.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 18:58 - ID#210114)
Famous Last Words.......
While I am happy to see gold stabilised at around US$300, it remains to be say whether this is the foundation of a rally.

Everyday it seems the USAGold market report and people on this page predict a squeeze or a rally but it doesn't seem to happen.

I think the pog will be flat until the second half of the year. After that it will rise a bit.

But if a majoy rally happens soon, there will be no-one happier than myself.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 18:59 - ID#153102)
I just want to let every American who reads on here know that there are some of us who will NEVER GIVE UP our goal to restore the civil authority of the States and the Constitution and when that day of restoration arrives "No State shall ... make any thing but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debt" will again be the law of the land. Get gold coin now while you can. When it hits the fan, the American people are going to lend an ear and open their minds to what it will take to restore lawful, moral. constitutional civil authority on this continent once again.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:03 - ID#210114)
JTF: No Gold Standard.
Sorry, its not going to happen. I have stated my reasons for this on previous posts.

As far as Keynes and gs; the $US was fixed to a gold exchange standard from 1944 to 1971 when Keynesian theory was dominant.

Please also see todays AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW where they note that the price of oil and GOLD has not reacted to the Iraq crisis, nor has gold or gold standards been mentioned by anybody with regard to the Asian crisis. They make the point that Suharto in particular has not mentioned gold and that gold is now becoming more and more a commodity than financial instrument.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:04 - ID#22956)
I would love to see Plat in the 340's again. I missed the last time it went there. It would be a pleasure to *LOAD-UP* on some rare-white-metal. I can wish... ( throwing a lucky coin in the fountain.......not the wink ) . the charts

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:05 - ID#344308)

saddam has won.....with-out a bomb being dropped
in desert storm II......he has united the arabs....dire implications--
he has fractionated the co-alition. the west is now in the
predicament iraq found itself during desert storm I...isolated.

his recent photo-op, without his military regalia, told the tale...
he is the puppet-master.......babylon..rush-----klinton and the west
dance upon a rotted stage....this weakness is recognized and WILL
BE long has the world been waiting for america
to lower her guard...and have chaos and flux from with-in? that
time is now....the military has been savaged by budgetary constraints--
the executive branch has been savaged by an ar-kansan savage....
we are seen as savages.......the great white devil......tied to the
strings of the puppeteer.......and there are many acts yet to come.
good for gold........bad for life.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:08 - ID#31876)
Plunge Protection Team Will Take Care..Nothing To Worry About

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:09 - ID#279406)
Richard Burke
A few points regarding Ken Roberts:
1 ) You may want to consider doing some "due diligence" related to Ken Roberts before contributing to his mail-order profit machine. Check into the following:

Some excerpts: "The book he wrote in 1983 was entitled The World's Most Powerful Money Manual, or TWMPMM. Since then, he's sold at least 300,000 copies of the thing, in 89 countries, mail order only, at $195 each, grossing well over $50 million total."

Ken Roberts claims to have substantial trading account balances, but of course he never discloses what portion of his trading account balances have come from actual trading versus his $50 million dollar mail order income. If you grossed $50 mil per year, might it not be rather easy to shift a portion of that into a brokerage account and claim "look at the futures trading account balance I have!" Might it not also be easier to survive account drawdowns?

2 ) If youre truly starting from ground zero in relation to futures trading, a very basic yet significantly more thorough course you might consider would be the one offered by Craig Stevens.

3 ) With regard to anyones course offering, never for a moment think that they are providing you with some type of financial "silver bullet" ( no pun intended in view of recent SI market behavior ) . All the hype in the world wont put money into your pocket. Be careful...

4 ) In addition to Gallachers book, also check out "Tricks of the Floor Trader" by Neal Weintraub.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:12 - ID#57232)
Your approach is admirable
Mozel: I think you and I are not really differing on key points regarding what is required to ensure the stability of the US dollar. If we can make our currency redeemable in gold as it once was, all the better. What worries me is that we may repeat the fiasco leading into 1972, when the US government was forced to go off the gold standard. Unfortunately, if we go to an electronic currency firmly 'backed' by gold -- or any other gold-backed currency, someone will still find a way to corrupt it. So, in the future, steady vigilance will always be necessary. We, as Americans, are all collectively to blame to some degree -- not just our leaders.

Spud Master
(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:14 - ID#273112)
Read the book "The German Atomic Bomb". The bloody naz-ees were NEVER EVEN close to building an atomic bomb. Their whole program was done in by one respected German scientist's mismeasurement of neutron moderating properties of graphite. Had nothing to do with strategic bombing. As for their heavy water effort - the Norwegian plant was crippled by ground forces first.

As for the A-bomb ending the war with Japan - no doubt. But the war was not WON by aerial bombardment. It was won by Japan being cut off from oil, tin, zinc, aluminum, coal, rubber ... i.e. material supplies, and the slow gradual destruction of their land and sea forces by Allied land and sea forces. Of course, they are not as sexy as air power, so we tend to forget.

The USAF has had fifty years to cover itself in glory it has not necessarily deserved. I suggest you read some biographies of LeMay and his psycho successor Powers to find out what kind of people we trusted.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:14 - ID#376309)
I heard from two different sources that traders are currently/going to liquidate long silver/short gold trades, and possible?? reverse into long gold/short silver.

Jon Disney- You asked me to stop saying gold is going down well.....This should be supportive for gold and at least a small move up soon should happen. Of course I'm sure you'll now tell me to stop saying silver may have some more to fall. Sorry, one PM at a time.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:16 - ID#153102)
I posted at one point that I thought ANOTHER was a clever hoax. I retract that now. His identity may have been a hoax, but he was not hoaxing this forum. I agree with JohnD that he may not be someone, but he is not just anyone.

You are correct. All the facts have been posted. If connecting the dots for myself has been of benefit to anyone else, I'm glad for it. The main point of my comment to you was that I don't believe ANOTHER delivered a simple bull call.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:17 - ID#23398)
The dog is barking
PGU UP 38% .23 TO .83
WIM UP .01 TO .45
TVX UP .15 TO .45
ROY - .08 TO 1.72 OUCH
AGE - .15 TO 8.15

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:17 - ID#210114)
JTF Gold Standard vs Gold Exchange Standard
The 1944 - 71 period was a gold exchange standard not a true gold standard. Gold was only redeemable to foreign powere re: foreign exchnage. The avergae citizen could not ask for gold; in fact it was illegal.

True gold standard could also not be redeemed by citizens.

Exploding the myths.....

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:19 - ID#288155)
Donald--for your "We will not Devalue..." collection {:- )
HONG KONG ( Xinhua ) -- Zhu Xiaohua, former deputy governor of China's central bank who now leads a Hong Kong-based red-chip company, this week ruled out the possibility that renminbi will devalue soon.

Zhu...said in a luncheon speech: "Renminbi will keep its stable position in the next two to three years and the Chinese Government has resolved to keep the currency stable." His speech "The Future of the Renminbi: Devaluation or Not?" kicked off a series of economic forums jointly organized by Salomon Smith Barney and China Everbright.

Zhu noted many people ignored the big disparity between the coastal regions and the western hinterland, which gives China's economy enough room to adjust to external shocks.

"THE SHIFT OF FACTORIES FROM EAST TO WEST, FROM BOOMING TOWNS TO UNDERDEVELOPED AREAS, CAN REDUCE COSTS OF PRODUCTION AND HELP MAINTAIN THE COMPETITIVENESS OF EXPORT," HE SAID. Besides, external trade only accounts for 35 per cent of China's GDP, and China still has a large domestic market, said Zhu. Date: 02/13/98

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:22 - ID#22956)
I can see clearly now the rain is gone......
I can see all obstacles in my way.....

gone are the dark clouds that had me blind...

[Gold is going to finish poorly this week. ( duh ) . The charts always tell me..... ( eventually ) .......

Testing support.....perhaps breaking].'s gonna be a butt, butt, butt ugly day. ( ouch ) ! ( . ) the broker to check my positions


Charles Keeling
(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:27 - ID#344225)
Keep in mind that EVERY financial institution
in EVERY country that is going to the EURO
will have to make changes to their own UNIQUE
application software. SOME of these
financial institutions will indeed be ready
with Euro and Y2K mods in time. ALL of these
institutions will NOT be ready.

Involved are many, many different types of
applications. Usually they are unique. The
computer language is unique, and there are
many. Many countries are involved. They
have unique languages.

Some will fail just because of Y2K. It doesn't
work if the EURO mods are done, and the Y2K
bug is not fixed.

Shortage of experienced programmers alone can
mean that a big percentage of financial
institutions will NOT be ready for EURO and

GLOOM & DOOM, CHAOS, PANIC and blood in the
streets will prevail. NAH!! but we will see
full employment as every able bodied man and
woman uses calculators to figure interest and
penciils to post ledgers.

The IRS absolutely has to go with flat tax
before 2000 or revenue will be cut off to D.C.
IRS can NOT make it. Current statuettes can
not tolerate modification.

Long term leap S & P PUTS should be very good in
late 98.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:27 - ID#252150)
Ron in Sac@I think you give Clinton & his gang of bumblers
too much credit re: trying to humiliate & insult the Arabs. I honestly don't think they see how silly & incongruous the rest of the world perceives their ME policy to be. I think it's kind of neat in an Orwelliam way. I'm also a big fan of Lewis Carrol.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:32 - ID#153102)
"As far as Keynes and gs; the $US was fixed to a gold exchange standard
from 1944 to 1971 when Keynesian theory was dominant."

You have a quite Keynesian way of using the word "fixed".

Seeing that Australia swapped 2/3 rds of it gold for paper, it would be nothing short of a miracle if the FINANCIAL news there was not part of the propaganda machine against gold.

Did you know that a tsunami at sea barely ripples the water ?

I don't think you are exploding myths. I think you are parrotimg them.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:33 - ID#242249)
USSR..the begining of a comeback?

Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
February 19, 1998

Ukranian Polls Point to Reintegration with Russia

According to two recent polls, the Ukranian Communist Party ( CPU ) currently
holds a strong lead in the upcoming March 29th elections. The return to
power of the Ukranian communists would have a dramatic impact on the
geopolitics of Russia. Russia has already entered into a union with
Belarus, where the old apparatus remains powerful. A CPU victory in
Ukraine would dramatically increase the likelihood that Ukraine would also
re-enter a formal relationship with Russia. Anti-Russian sentiment in
Ukraine has always been a factor to reckon with. However, the experience
of independence has not been a particularly happy one. There has been a
growing sense of frustration at economic stagnation and a sense that union
with Russia would help alleviate that situation.

The Ukraine is the key to the region's future. If Ukraine were to remain
fully independent and aligned with the West, Russia's ability to reassert
itself would be severely limited. Ukraine blocks Russian access to the
southwest, limiting its ability to project power toward the Balkans. It
also complicates Russian access to the Black Sea. Therefore, some sort of
reunification would dramatically enhance Russia's ability to project its

Should Ukraine rejoin Russia, the last remaining areas of the European
Soviet Union not under Russian domination would be the Baltic states, and
to a lesser extent Moldova. Interestingly, Russia's ITAR-TASS news agency
reports that Yeltsin made a bellicose speech concerning the Baltics
yesterday. Yeltsin declared that the admission of the Baltic states to
NATO would be "a threat to national security, which would lead us to review
our entire range of relationships with NATO... Russia advises the Baltic
states to stop searching for imaginary threats and instead concentrate on
building a true neighborly and mutually-beneficial partnership."

Russia has made it clear that it will not tolerate further disintegration
of the former Soviet Union. Both Russian foreign policy and the internal
politics of neighboring states are combining to reverse the pattern of
disintegration. The simple fact is that, whatever Ukrainian sentiment
about Russia might be, the economic integration between the two countries
had proceeded too far during the Soviet era to permit a genuine divorce.
Furthermore, Baltic independence depended on Russian tolerance. Therefore,
Russian resurgence will be difficult to resist.

Projecting forward a year, we think it likely that the former Red Army will
have returned to the borders of Romania, Hungary and Poland and that the
Baltics will have a Finland-like neutrality imposed upon them, assuming
that they are not pressured to enter into some formal relationship with
Russia. That will leave the area to the south of Russia, from the Caspian
to China, still unaccounted for. That, of course, is a region where the
West has developed important economic interests in developing the region's
oil producing capability. This means that it is an area that is not a
matter of indifference to the West economically, and is therefore a region
of potential conflict.

We are confident in saying that the disintegration of the former Soviet
Union has now reached its furthest extent. The predominant trend will now
be toward reintegration. The Ukrainian poll results demonstrate that the
tendency toward reintegration is generated not only by Russian geopolitical
considerations, but by the internal dynamics of its former partners. The
rest of the world had better accept that the party is over. Russia is
coming back and will be a great power if not a global power. March 29th
looms, therefore, as a fateful day in contemporary history.

Where are we going from here with gold?

Lurker 777
(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:35 - ID#317247)
Glenn the AU man
Say it aint so! I need Gold to touch $286.43 by Friday the 13th of March. Was it you that sold me three Dec. 99 280 puts for $600. each around 9:25 today?
I am thinking about a May Silver 650 straddle for around $4000
Takes a $.80 move to break even. $7.30 high and $5.70 low. What do you think?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:38 - ID#372344)
@ mozel...I'm certain your connecting dots have helped a great many...agree on Another...

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:42 - ID#252150)
Goldbug23@The A Bomb
Don't try to justify the use of the A bomb on Japan. Curtis Lemay, the USAF General in charge of the Pacific Bomber Command stated
in his biography that he was against it & that the Japanese were within
weeks, if not days of surrendering.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:42 - ID#237299)
Saudis, oil, gold, and "denials of partition"
There is an interesting interview in the Bahrain Tribune where the US
ambassador is being put in the uncomfortable position of having to deny
repeatedly that the US has plans to partition Iraq. Methinks the lady doth protest
to much....

Also a summary of Saudi projected oil revenues:

"...The Gulf kingdom's oil revenues were estimated at around
134 billion Saudi riyals ( $35.7 billion ) in 1998, around
14.9 per cent lower than the earnings in 1997, according
to Henry Azzam, chief economist and assistant manager of
the Saudi National Commercial Bank.
"Based on those earnings, the price of the Saudi crude will
be between $14 and $14.5," Azzam wrote in a regional

On initial reading I thought, umm, that's not very much money,
Bill Gates could come up with that, but then using $300 gold I
converted to metal and it's 3,887 tonnes. So I changed my mind
and decided,that's an awful lot of gold, If the connection is true.

Bill El Zebub
(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:49 - ID#261352)
@ Charles Keeling @S&P Long Term Leap Puts
Please characterize the tool and returns.Asian 'flu'
in the 3rd quarter makes puts sound tasty.Thanks.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:50 - ID#242249)
Oil futures rise sharply on talk that)
Oil futures rise sharply on talk that
OPEC may cut output

NEW YORK ( AP ) - Crude oil futures rose sharply
Wednesday on concerns that Saudi Arabia may propose that
OPEC countries cut daily output in a move to boost oil
prices, which have fallen to four-year lows.

March crude oil rose 59 cents, or 3.6 percent, to $16.25 a

Saudi Arabia's oil minister, Ali bin Irahim al-Naimi, said that
country, the largest exporting member of the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries, was ``deeply worried'' about
falling oil prices and urged all producers to coordinate efforts
to halt the decline. Oil prices have fallen nearly 20 percent, to
the lowest since April 1994, since November.

Futures prices rose further on unconfirmed reports the Saudis
were considering seeking a cut in OPEC quotas if widespread
cheating by other members is reduced.

OPEC on Jan. 1 boosted daily output by nearly 10 percent at
a time when many of its members were already cheating by
well exceeding their quotas and as economic problems at
Asian nations worsened.

Petroleum products followed crude oil higher. March gasoline
rose 1.47 cents, or 3 percent, to 50.94 cents a gallon; March
heating oil rose 1.60 cents, or 3.7 percent, to 45.34 cents a

Natural gas rose 7.2 cents to $2.238 per 1,000 cubic feet. In
London, Brent Crude rose 53 cents to $14.94 per barrel.

After the close of trading Wednesday, the American
Petroleum Institute reported that the nation's crude oil
inventories last week rose by 557,000 barrels to 326.871
million barrels.

Distillate stocks rose by 455,000 barrels to 129.231 million,
while residual fuel stocks climbed by 447,000 barrels to
39.763 million.

But gasoline supplies fell by 2.762 million barrels to 216.409
million, and refineries operated at 89.9 percent of capacity,
down 1.1 percent from 91 percent the previous week.

Copyright 1998 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This
material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or

What will happen to GOLD?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:52 - ID#288155)
South China Morning Post, Thur Feb 19, 1998
Indonesia hints at delay to IMF reform in peg stand-off
Indonesian government officials have hinted for the first time key International Monetary Fund reforms may be deferred, further calling into question the fund's US$43 billion bailout for the country.

ALSO--yesterdays Hong Kong Standard [front page]
Singapore Premier Goh Chock Tong and Malaysian Mahathir Mohamad --special meeting in Kuala Lumpur--Headline was--GOH AND MAHATHIR MAY AID INDONESIA
BQ--is this the beginning of an Asian regional currency, out of the Asean-China Joint Cooperation Committee?

JTF@The.Watch.List Perhaps we should add 'leader watching' to the least of leading indicators? e.g., the US meeting doesn't look as if it is 'drawing' the Asian Power Elite ( as culled from Power 50 list ) ...

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:52 - ID#330175)
James...................+ B.C. Pot heads + can I get anything STRAIGHT(you buy ABX on TSE and MOI on
James:No,I missed Ross ( he da man ) on Leno but I imagine he'll be playin the circuit and I'll get another chance to check em out.....Totally agree with you that gold ain't goin anywhere till the USD starts headin south and like you said,the Japs are doin everthing they can to screw up that

Bill El Zebub
(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:53 - ID#261352)
Does anyone know about bacteriological half-lives as they would relate to
paralysis of oil production and shipping?Assuming no rain or
strong wind the Straights could be tied up for a while.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:54 - ID#7568)

As Realistic has pointed out the action in silver is taking on a rather strange look. The warehouse stocks continue to decline, and as of late, so are the prices. Yesterday, when we covered half of our hedges, I said something to the effect that I thought 640 was a target for taking off the rest of them. After talking to a bunch of people today, we changed our strategy and lifted our remaining hedges. In addition we took some of our hedge profits and invested them in back into calls at higher strikes. Time will tell whether this was a prudent move.

The rational for our move stemmed from the near universal feedback that 640 was going to be a good support level. Whenever I hear the same number from a lot of different people it invariable means that the number is not going to be a major turning point. Either we are going to take out 640 and keep going, certainly a possibility, or we will never see it, or we may see a print, but there will be no real trading taking place. Since I don't believe that the story has really changed, I am compelled to believe that the bottom of this correction is at hand.

Another feature of the recent decline is the attribution of the main protagonist. Rumor has it, it is none other than the same gentleman who has been conducting bear raids on the Access market since the end of last year. All of his trading has been in the paper markets, because it is here that one can play with impunity, at least for a short while. During this period, when there is natural pressure on the lease rate due to funds rolling from March to May, our friend has picked a ripe spot for an attack. There does however appear to be some possible time constraint to his actions. Given the high level of open interest which remains in the March contract it is a risky proposition to carry a large short position into the March delivery period. As this gentleman is undoudtedly aware, being on the wrong side of a delivery squeeze is no fun. This leads me to believe that his shorts will be covered within the next day or two, because FND is only a week away.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:54 - ID#22956)
.......Buffett moves the Markets....uh huh......and gold staggers and sputters......
light roundups, etc. ( fwiw )

but've already heard all this ( FIRST ) on the pages of kitco... ( hoorah ) .

They used Donalds "D" word in there for color.....or whatever..... ( hmmm ) ... call the team


(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:55 - ID#376309)
Gold may get there by then. There is plenty of time between now and then. I do not sell any dec99 options to much time for me. The may straddle does not sound good. If you can not double your money do not take the risk with that much money in an option trade. Alot of support at $5.00 and alot of resistence at $8.00 for a long time. Trading is tough, there are no freebees.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:56 - ID#330175)
A Prediction
NO bombs will fall on Iraq ( Was an 'empty bluff' from the start that will ( as CherOkee said ) back-fire on Clinton + his cronies~~~~~ ) ===how do they spell LAME DUCK?

Voyeur Professor
(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:56 - ID#231101)
JTF: IMF origins


Sorry to delay responding to your query regarding the origins of the IMF. Actually, it was not around in the 20's, rather it surfaced in 1944 at the Bretton Woods, New Hamshire meeting. Its inaugural meeting was held in the Spring of 1946.

Your sense that denial and psychology are operative in spades with respect to our political and economic environment may prove to be the litmus test for our understanding of the past two years of the bull market.

Bill El Zebub
(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:57 - ID#261352)
CNBC young talking head this AM spoke of the success of the EURO
Supplantation of the dollar, US 6 tril debt with 8 tril GDP. Said
his bet was for success.Jim Rogers thinks not.He's been a border-
line contrary indicator as of late.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:58 - ID#330175)
EBerg + frozen H2O.......................................*gold is good*
Some say why-----I say why NOT~~~~~~~

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:59 - ID#93232)
Why did oil go up today......
When four "reverend" oil analysts, on CNBC, slammed it with the most severe rhetoric and price-damaging market data that I have ever witnessed? Is the market saying the western alliance is losing its authority in the ME region as a result of a thoroughly-botched handling of the "Iraqi threat" by the US/UK? It appears that we may now add yet another embarrassing incident to our list of futile military/economic policeing actions. "Gun boats go home...Old woman go away...We'll work this out amongst ourselves and our Russian buddies."
Clintonistas make me sick....a bunch of second-class arrogant buffoons....hand-picked by a slime ball sex maniac.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 19:59 - ID#7568)

Did anyone else read the editorial in the WSJ today, re silver? What an enormous crock o ( *&^. It warms the cockles of my speculative heart to know that our most vaunted financial newspaper can print such utter and complete sillyness.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:01 - ID#330175)
Back off G'Bugs
I have the flu ( hack,sniffle and BARF )

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:02 - ID#393224)
Bomb Columbus!!
Forget Iraq, folks. It's time to bomb Columbus, Ohio!! How dare those protesters show such disrespect for the honourable Albright, Cohen and Berger. The U.S. should have the right to bomb anyone who disagrees with Uncle Sam's foreign policy, especially if they are on American soil. Might even be easier to round those hecklers up, put them in the college gym and then burn it down. Just send in the Waco team. That'll teach em!!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:04 - ID#372344)
@ IMF....Indonesia.....
Jack Kemp interviewed on subject called for the head of IMF "Camdessus" to be replaced by Espe of Mexico.
He said that Indonesia would be better off without IMF "assistance"
He was pro currency board to stablize Rupiah and peg it to the US$
the world reserve curency.
He blamed IMF for current problems indicating that they were caused
by IMF policies of higher taxes, closing institutions etc instead of
the needed pro growth policies, which he believes could be better
delivered by Espe....

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:04 - ID#153102)
@Leland re PPT link
My question again is, just when, politically speaking, will be a good time for a "market correction" ? My conclusion. There is none.
It's disgusting the way this game is rigged, politcally managed, from top to bottom, not just at the PPT level, amid all this cant about competition and productivity.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:05 - ID#57232)
Finally at Home -- 'true' gold standard before 1933.
Spock: You are right. We did not have a 'true' gold standard during the 1944 or so period to 1972 when Nixon took us off the gold 'window' after several gold bullion hemhorrages. As I recall it was a double standard even then, with the gold standard being available only to foreign banks. I think we went off the 'true' gold standard in 1933. I believe that was close to the last year we minted the $20 gold coin, as well. The numismatists know this better than I.

By the way -- I try very hard to say only what is true -- if I say something misleading or untrue -- I would like to know.

What makes Kitco really special is that we try to get to the truth of all matters.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:10 - ID#368244)
Remember I'm from Louisiana
Get ready for the most inexperienced comment that you'll ever read. I said back with gold around 278-80 that I believed we were at or near a bottom. Furthermore, I also said that I believed gold would be around 320 at the end of February. Let me state now that I believe gold will carry silver to new heights. I believe this is evidenced by the fact that gold is remaining TOUGH in the face of an ever increasing onslaught of downward pressure. Silver is no longer carrying gold, in fact, just the opposite might be true. If gold does not break below 296 within the next few days, look for it to make a move UP !

I also said that if silver went much above 8.00 that there would be a huge influx of private silver unloaded. If the technicals on silver are as strong as they appear, an adjustment from 6.00-6.20 should be the lowest we see before a correction back to the 7.00-7.20 area. Judge the gold market and the silver market by one simple question--At what point do I become ( or not become ) a steady buyer of physical??

I am not a professional trader by any stretch of the word. This should be taken as strictly one man's opinion. Time will tell.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:15 - ID#330175)
Nick@C.................and let's bomb everyone in our damn way
While they're bombing Columbus they should also do a # on the Czech Republik~~~~~~~~~~

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:19 - ID#31876)
Mosel, Re. Your 20:04

Someone last year commented that maybe we never really recovered
from the Great Depression, we've only papered-over the problems.
I've thought of those words a hundred times.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:21 - ID#93232) 20:04
An "excellent" time for a "market correction" is tomorrow....stand clear of the fan. Higher oil pricing, loss of Iraqi "war", IMF banned in SE Asia, Prez has herpes ( hope so ) .....Ohio State Rocks!!!!! GOD BLESS THE BUCKEYES!!!!!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:21 - ID#7568)
SE Asia

Note where the heat is coming from re Indonesia. The big whining is coming from Camdessus and now Weigel. Guess which banks outside of Japan have the biggest exposure to SE Asia ( ~$120billion ) . Bingo, its Europe. No IMF control, no loan repayment. The currency board will probably work just fine as long as the creditor banks get stiffed, which they most certainly will. The bank boys in Europe must be weeing in the old pampers. If the Rupiah stabilizes at 5000, can a currency board for Thailand, Malaysia and South Korea be far behind? Kiss those European ( and Japanese ) banks good bye, or more likely, watch the computer operators key in a hundred billion EMU's and 10 trillion Yen, just to keep everyone happy. Ain't banking grand!

The US rhetoric has been much more low key, because they realize that footing the IMF bill is just writing a big check to European and Japanese banks. This has not been lost on Msrs. Kemp et al. In addition, having the entire region of SE Asia go on an absolute dollar standard does not look so bad for RR, AG et al. Like I've said before, these boys play a mean game of money.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:24 - ID#153102)
Saudi Arabia's oil minister, Ali bin Irahim al-Naimi, announced today his country has developed the O BOMB. See earlier post this segment. Combined with Japanese Hashimoto's earlier announcement of the existence of secret Japanese B BOMB, we have the potent B.O. BOMB, a unique combination of non-developed and over-developed world technology poised in counterpoint to the New World Odor and its A BOMB technology.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:26 - ID#252150)
What A Bunch Of Lying Hypocrites
Just watched the grotesquely corpulent & porcine Lawerence Eagleberger talk of the need & "responsibility" to attack Iraq. Even more nauseating was MA at the T.H. meeting who said that the U.S. cares more for the people of Iraq than does Saddam. She is not stupid, so I have to believe that she is a truly evil individual. They would make a great couple Eagleberger & Albright.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:28 - ID#256326)
nicely put.///on a matter from long ago ( non-gold, non-market ) which we disagreed about, you have, alas, been proven correct. email:

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:29 - ID#228128)
Isure consider this
Perhaps gold would have hit 320 by now except that the silver longs are financing their positions with gold shorts.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:32 - ID#256326)
i think you are correct. either this Friday or next is it, maybe both ( DB ) .

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:33 - ID#93232)
Albright is a poorly functioning corpse whose hollow being is occupied by necrophilic bacteria that ultimately will completely decompose her useless existence soon. Her only legacy will be a stinch.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:36 - ID#252150)
There's only one thing tougher than trying to make money in the AU mkt these
days & that's being short equities.Bloodied & wounded but still unbowed.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:42 - ID#93232)
You are technologically and empirically advanced, no doubt....I have now put on a thin black tie and have installed by pocket protector for the remainder of this evening.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:43 - ID#368244)
@ Aurophile @ IDT

Not that it matters, but i plan on making money either way, I buy physical!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:44 - ID#401460)

Ohio State Rocks!


(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:45 - ID#270295)
Lets GO!!!! Probably even a deductable trip ..What a way to forget all the political crap and other useless news flying around. And just go HOLD some GOLD!!!!! Makes you feel good all over!!!

Wednesday February 18, 6:39 pm Eastern Time

Gold display highlights irony of rare yellow metal

LONDON, Feb 18 ( Reuters ) - The Bank of England is due on Friday to host an exhibition

showing hundreds of gold bars in the shape of pigs, frogs and even plain old rectangular bricks

intended to depict gold's past and present allure to mankind.

Doughnut bars from Hong Kong, Japanese Yin Yang bars, Thai bas-relief bars and Indian ten

tola bars will be among the 500 or so lumps of the precious metal on display during the

three-month exhibition at Britain's central bank.

``There is an incredible variety of gold bars, the variety is staggering,'' John Keyworth, curator of

the Bank of England museum, told Reuters ahead of the opening.

``People like gold because it's rare, because it's a beautiful metal. You can bury it in the ground

and if you dig it up 100 years later it's untarnished,'' he said.

Michael Barlerin of the industry-backed World Gold Council said the display was intended to

bring home to the general public the mystique and history of gold.

``Everyone would like to hold some gold. People feel better if they hold some gold,'' said

Barlerin, a self-confessed gold bug and holder himself of bullion coins and gold stocks.

Bank of England Governor Eddie George, newly confirmed for a second, five-year term at the

helm on Wednesday, is due formally to open the exhibition.

His opening remarks at an exhibition to promote gold should be interesting.

Last November, George told a European Parliament committee that he doubted gold would

figure high on the list of reserve instruments chosen by the planned European Central Bank.

``I would be surprised if that decision involved holding large quantities of gold because whereas

gold used to be seen as the most internationally usable and, in that sense, liquid asset in the

central bank's portfolio it is now seen as actually at the bottom of the pile and the least liquid of

the assets,'' he told Euro-MPs.

And that is the problem for gold, which only last month hit 18-1/2-year lows on the back of sales

by central banks and by gold miners themselves, which did for 1997's record demand.

With gold last bid at $297.50/$298.00 an ounce after the close of European trade on

Wednesday, the question is how much the more than one-million-dollars-worth of bars on

display will be worth once the exhibition ends next May.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:51 - ID#93232)
God bless you, your kin and your alma mater.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 20:56 - ID#153102)
Thanks, I guess. I was posting re: your post on the oil price blip up. Pocket protectors are good.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 21:03 - ID#286199)
I appreciate your analysis on Silver. The WSJ editorial on silver was posted earlier this morning. I was fascinated by the notion that there are "billions" of ounces of silver just waiting to be dumped on the market.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 21:05 - ID#93232)
I heard about the Opeckers annoucement this you know where I could find one of those plastic coin pocket purses shaped like a football? I need one...they really increase the life span of one's pants.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 21:20 - ID#330175)
James..............and one horrible image bein burned into me feeble brain
Can you imagine what the off-spring of a Eagleberger-Albright 'union' would look like~~~~~~~~~

The Hatt
(Wed Feb 18 1998 21:21 - ID#294232)
Gold is Holding up VERY BULLISHLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!
With the recent pressure on silver you have to like the fact that Gold is
holding its own. I see this as the perfect climate for a retracement and Gold is saying no way! When it does breakout it will be on the upside and it could be an explosive move!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 21:26 - ID#330175)
A moment of Silence please-----------Harry Caray is dead

(Wed Feb 18 1998 21:28 - ID#288399)
Vernon Jordan/Trilateral Commission

Speaking of Albright/Eagleburger, was suprised to see Vernon Jordan's name on list of Trilateral Commission members ( along with BC's name, of course ) .

(Wed Feb 18 1998 21:28 - ID#340459)
Bruce lindsey and Linda Tripp performed a sting on BC through Lewinsky and Wiley forcing BC to cry
out to Iraq - COMPLY or DIE, BC knows how to use 'Smart Bombs' that are NOT weapons of mass destruction but yet do 'substantial damage'

Spin, Spin, Spin the Tail... O Serpent girdle the globe...Maybe this will satisfy you.......... We can rave and rant...But can do little beyond this venting.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 21:28 - ID#286199)
Hi Yo Silver
Here's a little mine that went up 108% today

(Wed Feb 18 1998 21:29 - ID#252150)
Even Stephen King would'nt be able to write something that scary.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 21:29 - ID#37867)
My paranoia?
Question: Someone or some group is very interested in attaching SH. If they feel public approval is slipping i.e. chilly reception in OH10 today--is it possible that some "activity" could accur that might polorize AMERICANS TO DEMAND SWIFT RETRIBUTION?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 21:30 - ID#372344)
@ SA News , Curtains for Gencor, Harmony bids for Evander, Impala & Lonrho Platinum merger....

(Wed Feb 18 1998 21:30 - ID#57232)
No Asian Power elite -- yes another indicator!
SDRer: Appreciate your post and astute comment about that emergency US based world-wide bankers meeting. If the Asians are not invited, or unwilling to come, it may be more of a contingency plan type meeting -- ie how to handle the debt that the Asians ( eg Indonesia ) will be unwilling or unable to pay. I find it interesting that D.A. concluded also that the Indonesian currency board scheme might work -- if the foreign debt was deferred ( or ? ) .

My guess is that the IMF is more concerned about debt repayment than they are about civil unrest in Indonesia. Selfish considerations aside, Indonesia will be unable to pay anyone if it has been reduced to anarchy. This reminds me of the old English 'debtors prison' where debtors were jailed if they could not pay -- and then of course thay could never pay.

It certainly would be nice to have a 'fly on the wall' at that meeting, just to determine how much debt is unpaid -- the non-Asian debt must be considerable for an emergency meeting to be called. Didn't someone post not so long ago that Europe is more heavily invested in SEAsia than the US?

Bill El Zebub
(Wed Feb 18 1998 21:30 - ID#261352)
@ Do you know the difference between B. Clinton and the Titanic
They knew how many went down on the Titanic!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 21:36 - ID#287338)
Somethings UP!
I might have some bad information. but it seems that right now someone is selling silver and buying gold. Anybody else know whats going on?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 21:39 - ID#290271)
January golden eagle Totals
Hi everyone! I've got the numbers from the US Mint on what bullion they sold during the month of January:

105,500 ounces of gold ( total )
95,500 1oz coins
9,000 1/2 oz coins
10,000 1/4 oz coins
30,000 1/10 oz coins

Platinum Eagles: 7,500 1 oz coins 6,000 1/10 oz coins

These numbers are up from December, but I don't know by how much. Regardless, the "little guy" is buying and I think that is significant!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 21:39 - ID#341312)
Re- your 18:17 comment that strategic bombardment was a failure in WWII because Nazi weapons production increased is not quite correct. Yes, it increased but much of it was worthless due to bombing of critical resources and components like oil ( Ploesti ) and ballbearings ( Schweinfurt ) . The raw numbers of finished products like Me-109's and Fw-190's DID increased dramatically but they were useless without fuel and even worse, experienced airmen. Much of the credit for the production figures must be given to one man, Albert Speer. He decentralized the production process so the 8th Air Force couldn't just target one major plant. Components and subassemblies were made in nondescript converted
buildings-literally farmhouses, bakeries, etc. ( I think ) and only brought together at a central location for final assembly. I, for one, am very, very, glad the Nazis did not have more people like Speer. As far as the current situation in the ME goes, as much as I despise Hussein I don't think we have a clear reason for being there. I also agree with Larry N's comment that sinking one of our carriers would provoke a DEVASTATING military response. It would not be a wise course of action for Mr. Hussein.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 21:42 - ID#330175)
Hi Scotty!
How's life in CO. treatin ya?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 21:45 - ID#31876)
Scotty, Do You Think The Mint Is Working Overtime?
My last ten American Eagles were dated 1998.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 21:51 - ID#57232)
Another indicator -- Chinese devaluation denial rate!
SDRer,Donald: Any sign the Chinese devaluation denial rate has gone up? Could a Chinese devaluation be imminent? That would almost certainly trigger a SEAsian downturn, as well as another ( and I hope last ) round of devaluations. I guess a key question is whether Japan can survive this.

Any comments on the Japanese 'big bang' April 1 ( do I have the right date? ) . It is my impression that on that date the average Japanese is free to invest his/her money outside the country. Is that right? If so, knowing the Japanese, that would not change things very much, although it might finish off any remaining teetering banks. I think someone said that only 10 Japanese banks would survive. If so, I would not want to be in the Japanese market at that time. I don't think that will be bullish -- not yet anyway. And what about all of those other Japanese corporations -- or are only the banks on the brink?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 21:52 - ID#393224)
Sell 'em...bomb 'em...sell 'em again...
You Yanks and Poms are nothing if not brilliant businessmen.

First you sell a country biological and chemical agents and equipment to make more.

Then under the pretext that they MAY ACTUALLY USE what you have sold them-- you go in and bomb the lot!!

Third-- In a few years when memories dim and a new 'friendly' regime is in power, you start the process all over infinitum.


Brilliant !!
Who says Capitalism is dead !?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:01 - ID#153102)
I think you could find one of those pucker purses at the political novelty store in our nations capitOl.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:01 - ID#220325)
APH thanks for your excellent silver and market calls
APH: you are truly incredible with your calls. I have gone over all of your previous comments and it would seem that an 80% retracement of silver would be about $6.40. How low do you think it will go on this wave? If I am understanding your information we have about 7 weeks until the next wave moves up? Do you expect the S&P to correct soon or head straight up to 1100?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:01 - ID#31876)
Japanese Bankers Are Worried About April 1 Deadline

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:07 - ID#153102)
We ain't all that smart. We're into gold. It's our gummints that has all the brains. Lots of speer chuckers working for our national socialists.
Is it true the Aussie CB announced another gold sale ?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:12 - ID#93232)
Much thanks....we oil men, in light of $14. oil, must make our pants last. Maybe I could find an old Goldwater pucker purse for next to nuthin'.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:21 - ID#409286)
Soros comments
I usualy don't post, But I found the following interesting ( Remember, I don't talk because I have nothing to say, But I read everything ) :

Gold was relatively resilient despite pressure on support early in trade. Prices traded at around $297.80-298.20 here, off an overnight low of $297.15. "Considering that it was so close to a technical breakdown, its resilience was amazing," said GNI. More generally, a report from UBS analyst Andy Smith argued economic "anti-
globalization" was "on the march" and suggested changing attitudes to global markets offered some hope for a return to investment in gold.
He pointed to a variety of comments from such notaries as investor George
Soros which called for greater regulation of the world economy. International capital movements need to be supervised," he quoted Soros as saying. Smith said the uncertainty of a shakeup in the structure of the global economy and any return to more localized government autonomy could restore gold's attraction as a safe haven investment. "The clarion call for capital controls--in threatening to expose savers again to the whim of national governments, like rats in a barrel exposed to a shotgun--should strike a bullish cord in every gold watcher's heart," he argued.
Spot precious metals prices are in US dollars per ounce:
London 1115 GMT Tokyo 0715 GMT Late New York

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:24 - ID#93232) prediction of gold's demise this Thurs. and Friday......
Prepare for your Waterloo.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:25 - ID#153102)
Y'know there is people who still remember those Let Em Freeze In The Dark bumper stickers.
From the grumblings coming out of the Opecky, those bumper stickers may soon be easier to find than Goldwater pucker purses, which I never remember seeing anyway.
AG may dump more gold ( a little more ) . The Saudi may tighten the spigot. Netanyahu may invade somebody. Clinton may blow up one our own carriers with the OKC ATF team. But this baby is going to roll in some direction before tooo long.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:26 - ID#290271)
golden eagles et al
Howdy Ted! Yup, I'm still around. But not like the "good ol' days." Got a couple inches of snow last night, but it melts in a day or two. I wish we would get 3 or 4 feet so I can get a couple days off! All is well -- but I can't keep gold bullion in inventory to save my butt!!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:29 - ID#290271)
Gold Mintages
Leland: I suspect that the mint made an extra effort to get ahead on their 1998 coins. The last couple years they have been slow in introducing the "new" coins. I was taking delivery of 1998 eagles on 15 January. Also, the 1997 platinum coins may end up with a slight numismatic value as they didn't make that many. For some reason, there is a segment of the bullion market that wants the "new" coins from the mint. To me, they are just an ounce of gold to be sold for a slight profit -- or to be put away for a rainy day!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:33 - ID#393224)
Have made so many t-i-c posts lately that my cheek may be permanently deformed!! The U.S. gubbmint just keeps producing so many t-i-c targets that I can't help myself. I'm sure most Kitcoites have lopsided faces anyway.

Haven't heard about any more Aussie gold sales. Such an 'insignificant' item wouldn't appear on the news. Will have to wait for tomorrow's AFR.

Aussie gold shares showing a bit of life today. Have been correcting for a couple of weeks and are even better bargains now.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:33 - ID#31876)
This Was Written Last Year About Japan's "Big Bang"

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:34 - ID#173274)
@the scene

Nick -- It really is only a matter of keeping debt in motion. Nothing more. Without that happening, well, you know, the breaks come on! What's a few hundred thousand lives against that scenario? Think in moneys' terms. It may be harsh, and I may not also like it, but it certainly seems to be the case, unfortunately. All their expoundings of 'virtues' regardless! Wait 'till they get REALLY serious, up against the wall like! You ain't seen 'nothin yet! Lots of 'knashing of teeth'!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:35 - ID#238295)
James: If Madeline Halfbright actuallu said that she cares for the Iraqi people, this is a big lie of Hitlerian proportions. Some months ago in a CBS interview she said words to the effect that it was worth killing hundreds of thousands of Iraq civilians if that is what it takes to topple SH.

HATT: Gold indeed holding up quite well and the next MAJOR AND SUSTINED MOVE probably will be up. But we still may get some downside if and when BC bombs Iraq. The other potential negative is a Chinese devaluation. A sharp devaluation of the yuan probably is the only thing that could knock gold back towards $280, however briefly. Asian markets and currencies would also be massacred again.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:37 - ID#93232)
You're starting to blow my mind...I cannot believe you know about that bumper sticker....Eddie Childs, etc. and the OKC ATF fellow American, you've got it straight...I'll say that.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:38 - ID#153102)
I'm slightly property exposed in Australia now. Please secure the political climate for capital.

Gloomy Gus
(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:41 - ID#428207)
Golden lemons and golden lemmings...bummer

I go away for a spell at Betty Ford and return to kitco with advertising?
Have you no pride kitcoites? Rebel against this insidious commercialisation of the WWW. Does this mean we can't say that USA GOLD SUX? I mean, will Bart miss out on revenoo if we say that?

Anyway, the flaming banner for some USA GOLD coverd up the add comments button so I'm not sure if I'm adding a comment or buying more of that useless yellow metal.

So what if 5,000 years of history says gold has value? For a lot longer than that people thought the earth was flat. That's bunk. So is gold.

Get out of the PMs now. Go for Coca cola and MS, at least these companies DO something, make something. Wisht Id followed my own advice last year and stayed with my Industrials. But no. I listened to the experts at kitco Buy gold, you can't lose, they said. Buy gold everyone knows it has value, they said. SHeessh///...

Have just enough silver to melt into a little silver bullet. Ah Ah.. An easy aim, not even I could miss.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:42 - ID#330175)
Gloomy Gus
I continue ta feel yer pain~~~~~~~~~~~

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:50 - ID#93232)
@Gloomy Gus
Wagons were made to fall off of. Have a littl' toddy and buy a littl' a man.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:52 - ID#286250)
FT--US hostility towards Iraq..leading to confrontation with the whole Arab world"
Last P--"all the same, the US would be unwise to ignore the ugly mood of the region. Eloquent of this is a bedouin tale that Crown Prince Abdullah, heir to throne of Saudi Arabia, is said to have told Madeleine Albright, "A livestock owner",he related, "whose flock was losing a lamb every three or four days to a wolf, was persuaded to buy 20 fierce guard-dogs to keep the predator at bay. But then he found had to slaughter three or four lambs every day to feed the guard-dogs." Pausing for effect, the Crown Prince went on:"At that point the owner of the flock decided to get rid of the guard-dogs and co-exist with the wolf, as that was the least costly, and perhaps the less dangerous course."

Question: Did Maddy understand the story?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:53 - ID#42365)
Gus... you bought pm's for the wrong reason...
Pms are insurance not to make profit.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:57 - ID#42365)
Scotty: 97 platniums
what are the name for those coins, i have 12 .25 oz and 3 .5 oz coins, got in while tha gettin was good. : ) where do i find a price for them?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 22:58 - ID#34883)
Am beginning to understand this Rothschild conspiricy rubbish...If people are stupid enough to be led to believe that CB's are private agencies... well know the rest...

(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:03 - ID#238295)
The real reason the Demorepublican war mongers are thirsting for blood.
CIA blew it in 1996 and Billy wants revenge.

*1996. The Bay of Camels - CIA's biggest flop since Cuba.
Urged on by President Clinton, CIA mounts an elaborate coup
against Saddam Hussein. Iraqi exiles, armed and trained by
CIA, to march on Baghdad from US/British ruled Kurdistan.
CIA organizes a cabal of generals to assassinate Saddam.
Public places in Baghdad are bombed, many civilians killed,
in order to `destabilize' Iraq ( this while the US is busy
denouncing terrorism ) . But Saddam's spies have infiltrated
the plot. The whole operation collapses. CIA's agent
network in Iraq is rolled up. Many Kurds back Saddam, turn
on pro-US Kurds. CIA agents in Kurdistan run for their
lives, abandoning allies and tons of documents. Saddam is
strengthened. CIA's inept Director, John Deutch, fired for
this Mother of All Fiascos. .

Republicans now urge more of the above to keep the Mideast
calm. You certainly can't argue with success.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:05 - ID#173274)
@the scene
I'm currently looking for April gold to trade near 290 before this down side abates. 640ish on the Mar silver looks right, but it can behave SO flakey from time to time that I wouldn't put it past it to through a curve lower. Just remember that backwardization is still existent which means at least a near term shortness of supply. Until the backwardization disappears, I expect this run to continue up. Look at it this way: Anyone see any particular increase in warehouse stocks lately? I don't think so. And given lower prices, there is less selling pressure that might increase them. I'm looking for lows in both metals to occur by/through the 24th.

As for the equities, I might give them part of the first week of March regardless how high they go, or not, into that time. But a caveat. I'll be looking into where they are at then to make my own determination of their 'possibilities' from where they are in reference to my trend lines, etc. One of these days, I expect a BIG downdraft to rock-em! They really haven't nullified gravity, only sense.

And as usual, all caveats apply.

As for the Mid-East, I think some big things are afoot. I'm afraid that Saddam might get to feeling a bit boxed in and do something He would not otherwise do. That, or Israel makes a pre-emptive attack on him. In any case, I think things are HOT. Hey, who needs a missile when a motor boat will do? That, or plant a nuke in the watery depths off of Israel. Wonder what kind of tidal wave that might make, not to mention a lot of dead and dying sealife. Very healthy. This is all very interesting 'cause, as we all know, we could send Saddam a bunch of foreign aid and wind up being buddies for life, just like the rest of the foreign aid crowd. Nope, this is not the scenario that someone wants. So instead, death and destruction will be visiting areas and peoples. Swell!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:10 - ID#401460)

"CB's private agencies"are you saying they are not private?

I don't understand your post.


(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:11 - ID#41229)
All Lurkers!!!!!!! Accountability
For the people that have posted here and have a story of which they have lost capital due to the outlooks of the posters of this sight.

I say this:

I'm sorry to hear of anybody loosing any amount of money on anything in one invests in. I say that with sincerety and true compasion.

What I can't believe, is the notion that someone forced any individual into following any investment stratejy! Would people please take accountability for their own actions. What is the world coming to when people can't relize that when one OWN action inflict damage, it had to be caused by something or someone other than themselves. We are all adults here ( that are able to invest money ) why not own up to ones own mistakes.

Whats that you say?------ people here keep stating of collaspe and the market booms. Put your money in the market if you truely believe that its the best way.

If you invested into strong companies and or physical, even at $400 and held you may have a paper loss today, but will come out ahead in future. ( Thats only if you had the CONFIDENCE to hold ) Many times I have seen Tolerant1, Cherokee, and some other repeatedly state " pay of debt, buy physical" very sound advice. So the people who leveraged themselves, and made poor investments and lost capital, I say to you that you would of lost the money anyway, whatever you invested in because NO RESEARCH WAS DONE, NO CONFIDENCE IN THE INVESTMENT. So who is to blame? YOURSELF!

Before you know it, a disclaimer will be posted, taking up precious AD spots I might ad, saying read at your own risk. People need to relize when investing, ITS YOUR MONEY, ITS YOUR RISK. So please anytime you invest, invest alittle time with that money and get confidence in the venture, otherwise it's a sure loss. Mostly STOP BLAMING THE PEOPLE YOU SEE IN THE SCREEN BECAUSE, ITS THE PERSON IN THE MIRROR THAT MAKES THE DECISION AND THAT HAS TO LIVE WITH THAT DECISION!

I will say this, I have lost money in investing, but I don't consider it a loss! The reason being, I'm learing how to invest and with anything you learn, there is a price for that knowledge. So I look at what losses I've had as the tution to financial freedom I'm aquiring. This is not arrogance this is confidence!

I'm not stating people shouldn't posts about losses, Infact I would encourage ( It could cause my tution to go down {:+ ) ] JUST TAKE OWNERSHIP!


GO GOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:12 - ID#153102)
@OldGold @Studio.R
OldGold: Damn. Twenty expensive guard dogs without teeth ? 1996 CIA coup plot fails. 1997 gold tanks. Guess the Saudi were impatient for results.

@Studio.R My fellow American. I think Prince Abdullah intends to keep the wolf from your door.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:17 - ID#31876)
World Opinion Is Certainly Against U.S. Over Iraq..

Click on "COVER STORY"

(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:21 - ID#286250)
Studio.R--Maybe help is on the way?
FT--Thursday, FEb 19, 1998
"..but the Saudi statement helped reverse the bearish sentiment and it
was quoted at $14.61 a barrel later.

Riyadh is seeking evidence from the main quota busters within the
Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries that they are prepared to
reduce output to help stabilise oil markets. If there are signs of a "sincere change of heart" among the over-producers, then Saudi Arabia will support the calling of an emergency Opec meeting, at which the group's production ceiling and national quotas would be reviewed.

Three Opec countries - Venezuela, Nigeria and Qatar - are between them
producing 1.3m barrels a day over their quotas. A senior Saudi official said the Kingdom was prepared to be flexible in ensuring that higher quotas be awarded to countries which can fulfil them.

The official warned, however, that Saudi Arabia's conciliatory approach has limits, and that Riyadh is prepared for a showdown if Venezuela and the other chronic over-producers fail to cut production. "We will be the first to commit but the last to blink," he said.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:22 - ID#334219)
SCARFACE - EWT and silver
"My guess is that the five waves above are part of one wave ( 422 - 781 ) and that the retracement now taking place will be based not on wave 5's advances, but on the grander wave ( 422 - 781 ) ." This makes a lot of sense. However, in a bull market correction waves don't always retrace 50% of the impulse wave. I would think that, given the strenght if this first leg ( 413-781 ) a retracement of fibo 38% would bemore than enough..this puts us at the magical $6.40...but if $6 is really taken on the downside, we will most likely have to call en end on this bull.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:22 - ID#93232)
And I will see to it that His Majesty Prince Abdullah gets all the lamb he can eat. And SDRer....Madeline Halfbright doesn't have a clue what my favorite Prince meant. G'Nite...for the wolf howls at the half-moon.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:23 - ID#34883)
Yes, I assume it is common knowledge that Central Banks are the monetary arm of Government, if not, let me hear the story.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:32 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Mole, Highrise -- Nope. Governments are the military arm of the CBs! All their regulations, taxations and debt based money systems back this statement to the hilt!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:34 - ID#340459)
@Mole, The Fed Reserve books are NOT open to any audit, Public or Private, Governament has very
little influence on Fed Policy inspite of it being a monetary arm. The Central Banks are quite independant and unlike other Governament Agencies is a FACT known to all..

(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:37 - ID#340459)
Federal Reserve is mysterious entity shrouded in Masonic rituals and even the Prez has little
influence within this Holy of Holies..

(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:41 - ID#286250)
Hey...this is getting uncomfortably close to parity....
IHT, Thur Feb 19, 1998

Failure to Win EU Approval Costs Samsung BRUSSELS -
The European Commission fined Samsung Electronics Co.

*****33,000 European currency units ( $35,800 ) ******

for failing to consult it before buying another company.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:41 - ID#28585)
The ( alleged ) PPI falls almost pundits declare low probability of Iraqi war...sister silver trashes over the past two days...deflationary scenario continues to unfold in Asia...American currency remains strong...

In the face of all these negatives, Gold holds up quite nicely.

It will not take much of a push to launch gold into the sky...not much of a push at all.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:45 - ID#22956)
the clouds are unobscuring my vision StudioR... This 'dive' will afford you to call your metals broker to secure more physical. Or.... you should wait until the dust settles. I think we will make new lows. Last week I did not think so. This week is a whole lot different ( for me ) ...

And yes, Thursday or Friday ( ugh Friday ) will start the breakout. Do not 'hope' this market....but trade it.

Stox will be just one nail in it's coffin. Silver or Plat won't 'carry' it.

btw, who was it that bought Oracle at 18 ( early Jan ) ?? it STILL looks good at 26...ohmy! Buy and and hold..... ( uh huh ) . Nagano


(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:46 - ID#210235)
@WSJ editorial
Glad to see y'all met the WSJ editorial with your usual humor. If any lurker ever gets worried when reading such, speak up. I'll post some articles from October, 1929 WSJ on the stock market trembles and crash. Fun reading for all.

(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:51 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Farfel -- Yup. Looks good on the surface, however, BE ever vigilant as the worst case scenarios have been known to happen. And simple 'shakeouts' almost always happen! Be aware. In gold, that might be a 5-10 dollar downdraft that subsequently recovers. Of course, it then may NOT recover in the short term. Ain't tradin' fun!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:54 - ID#372344)
@ Focus G7- Japan & US to create SE Asia trade"insurance" fund for imports....

(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:56 - ID#339212)

1. The OLYMPICS "go gold" did not change the perception.

2. More people in this site are getting bearish. The ones who criticized
the gold derivatives are now trading them.

3. Gold did not reverse on Feb 13, as some experts on this site expected.

4. War or peace do not affect the metal

5. Asian collapse, also collapsed gold.

6. Expected DOW crash has not occured yet.

7. Dollar strong and up

8. Gold stocks action do not anticipate gold rally soon.

9. Platinum not moving

What will make the gold dog to move?

(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:58 - ID#57232)
You forgot the commodity price index!
farfel: The commodity price index, CRY0, has been dropping steadily for days. Usually gold and gold stocks follow suit. This time they have been relatively resistant to a drop in CRY0.

I think we will find out in the next few weeks just how strong our gold bounce upward from approx $280 really is. Personally, I think we have bottomed and are going up the other side -- but my advice is worth just what it cost you!

(Wed Feb 18 1998 23:59 - ID#28585)
It's a little manipulation designed to attract an enormous wave of short sellers ( especially all the technical disciples ) . IMHO.

Then, squeeeeezzzee.....