Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:00 - ID#341214)
refer: Amen to Accountability
refer: I liked your post about accountability. I have my favorites but I read everyone that I can on this board then I make my own decisions. I pulled a real boner yesterday by going long silver just before it fell off the cliff. Funny thing is I've been waiting for the correction we're in now but got impatient and jumped in when I shouldn't have. Got my hand slapped good but the damage was minimal and the lesson was learned ( I hope ) . I was nervous about the trade so I went with the smallest thing I could, a single 1000oz silver contract.

I share your experience in learning how to trade. Up front losses are part of learning the game. One thing for sure, the advice and support I've received from the people on this board have made the journey most enjoyable and rewarding. I'm truly embarassed for people that get on here and say they have lost such and such because of following the advice given here. I don't think they realize how just how stupid they sound. Any good goldbug worth his or her salt will take responsibility for their actions.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:01 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

FSAGX & FDPMX doing their Niagra Falls act once again!

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:04 - ID#153102)
@trading money
It's always dark before it get darker. It's always darkest just before dawn. Trouble is until you see light, you don't know when that is.
But paramount, when trading money, is to have the real money in your hand when the trading stops.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:09 - ID#335190)
Mozel @ Civil War 1860 -1865 "Greenbacks" POMPOSITY ANNOYS THE HELL OUT OF ME.
Date: Wed Feb 18 1998 16:39 mozel ( @6Pak ) ID#153102:
---sets poorly and annoys the hell out of me---

1860-1865. Are you still fighting the civil war?

1860 -President Lincoln Inaugural address March 04: "This country, with its institutions, belongs to the people who inhabit it " & "Whenever they shall grow weary of the existing government they can exercise their constitutional right of amending it, or their revolutionary right to dismember it or overthrow it "

1860 - April 12 Civil War, Fort Sumter bombarded.

1860 - August 05 Congress levies the first U.S. income tax to raise funds for the Union Army and Navy.

1862 - President Lincoln - New York Tribune "My paramount objective in the struggle is to save the Union" & "and is not either to save or to destroy slavery. If I could save the Union without freeing any slave. I would do it; and if I could do it by freeing all the slaves, I would do it; and if I could save it by freeing some and leaving others alone I would also do that"

1864 - Lincoln is reelected with the help of the "War Democrats"

1864 - The Confederacy suffers wild inflation as $1 billion in paper currency is circulated. Gold value of the paper money falls in the first quarter of the year to $4.60 per $100 while in the North the gold value of the greenback falls to $.39 as of July

1864 - "IN GOD WE TRUST" is printed on every piece of U.S. currency for the first time by order of Treasury.

1865 - The American Civil War ends - President Lincoln is assassinated. - The Union has lost 360,222. The Confederacy 258,000 with at least 471,427 wounded on both sides. ( North population 20 million - Confederacy 10 million, over a 1/3 are slaves )

1865 - Wartime inflation has reduced the value of Confederate paper money to $1.70 per $100 by January, and driven the gold value of the Union greenback to $.46. The Confederate money became worthless and the greenback will not regain its full value until the end of 1878
.......................... ( GREENBACK PARTY 1873 )

1865 - City Bank of New York. opens June 16 1812 @ 52 Wall Street ---New York's City Bank, obtains a "federal charter" and becomes NATIONAL CITY BANK, then it becomes FIRST NATIONAL CITY BANK ( 1955 )

Sooooo, Slaves - Civil War -Income Tax - 100's thousands killed - In God We Trust - assassination - Greenbacks - Gold - National Bank "Federal Charter".

YOU ARE RIGHT AGAIN EH! Your words: "But, I must say half-informed historical postings and self-righteous pomposity " I agree.
Take Care.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:09 - ID#372344)
@ First of Many to come...Bomb blast damages US dealership in Athens to protest Iraq Bombing...

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:12 - ID#339212)
@ John Disney

Not a course in 101 Economics, but,

you know that yield is proportional to risk, that says it all
about the high yielding SA golds.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:13 - ID#28585)
"Go Gold" messages at Olympics are changing perception...but like any subliminal form of brainwashing, it is not something that occurs overnight. However, the repetitious messages will play over and over again the the late night dreams of every person on the planet.

Threat of war does not impact gold...because American complacency is at an all-time high. This fact augurs well for gold...and badly for the DOW. Americans are categorically certain that, if there is a war, it will be an identical replication of the '93 cakewalk. Forget the fact that there all sorts of potential left field events that could arise, most notably Israel's warning that, this time, they WILL respond to an attack on their country.

XAU does not perform well because, since the Pegasus fiasco, threat of bankruptcy hangs over the entire gold mining sector. Gold investors wait on the sidelines, ready to jump in as soon as a major spike in POG occurs. New investing rules for a new set of circumstances ( shall we call it "the New XAU Paradigm?" ) .

Asia disaster brings gold down as over-leveraged owners of gold must
sell any available assets to save their financial butts. However, by now, most such gold sales should be over and reaccumulation phase is ready to begin. One thing is certain...most Asians have little doubt now that gold held up much better than their own currencies ( excepting Asian currencies pegged to the U.S. dollar )

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:15 - ID#257148)
There's Wars & Police Actions: Politicians & Soldiers. Most of us will be involved, like it OR NOT.
Evening All

Those who have managed to stomach reading my posts will recall the, ahhem, "mixed feelings" that NZ and NZers have regarding our "allies" the United States. You will recall the comments I have posted from old NZ soldiers and diggers about the safest place to be when the Americans were in a field of battle. ( in any other field of battle ) You will recall NZ's disbelief when the US started raising trade barriers against NZ, your erstwhile allies, while at the same time according China "Most Favoured Nation" status as trading partners. ( Aren't they the commies?? )

You will recall that NZ has allied itself with America in the "wars" and "police actions" that the other Western Allies shunned. That should make us "most favoured allies" No?

Of course we also supported and/or fought by the Brits in Suez, Malaysia and the Falklands, that probably makes NZ the most ready country to brandish swords. Note, we do not rattle sabres, we brandish swords..

You will recall that NZ declared war on Nazi Germany *before* England & the rest of the "Allies", because of the International Date Line. You will recall my intemperate outburst at mozel, before he became my compadre, at an apparent declaration that he would stand against America defending ANOTHER ally ( Australia ) were it to be invaded.

Make no mistake, my American cousins, NZers are firm believers in freedom and democracy, and have laid down their lives by the thousand time and time again for these chimera. ( recall my post from Johnnie Got His Gun, by Dalton Trumbo ) .

Noone should be suprised that the kiwis are in there again, some of our warriors left today

This bellicose action does not even have the support of Parliament.

Let loose the dogs of war.

Here, kitty kitty....

Did my mail get through?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:17 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Farfel -- I DO agree that it currently looks and acts quite bullish. However, I'll trade the numbers. I think we'll know more of the answer by/after next Tuesday. Currently, I'll stand by my 290ish April gold number until it proves itself otherwise by/through then. Maybe it'll do it, maybe it won't. Maybe it will REALLY crash and burn. In any case, I do expect to see 290ish type of numbers. I will be quite surprised if anything more serious than that happens to it by then, but I won't be standing on the tracks, in front of the freight train if it should come whizzing by either. On the other hand, should it not see a 290ish number by then, I will say 'OK' and try to find an answer in my charts; good, bad or ugly ( for me ) . In the mean time, picking up a few more physical pieces shouldn't be too potentially hurtful either.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:27 - ID#22956)
Aurator...and others....
no. Damned ISP. Ted is having trouble too. I think you are both pulling my foghorn-leghorn.

Crystal B. - will you mail me? Or someone on the eeeestcoast ( US ) ?
...and confirm that you sent it? please...Stu-stu-studio? ( he may be in on it too.... ) 'smell' the conspiracy

...go gold

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:29 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Aurator -- Don't blame it on me. I'm on your side of this 'argument'. Put it all on the one-worlders here, and everywhere. I'm sure most Americans would be/are against most-favored trade status for China over NZ. personal opinions do not matter here anymore. Actually, most anything that might be termed 'righteous' don't get the play here anymore. Sign of the times. Everything is directed towards the big jack-boot being pressed upon freedoms and such. Don't look for much help from this 'Feds-are-US' corner. Just dig your fox-hole deeper.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:29 - ID#401460)


The problems at The Ohio State University today have helped to complete the picture for the future direction of Gold.

The Administration does not have the support of the UN Security Council or the countries in the region and has said that we will act on our own, if we have to - US Secretary of State, this is tantamount to international public relations suicide.

And, now, the incident at The Ohio State University, has shown that the Administration does not have the support of the people. I t also shows how ill prepared and how little research the Presidents people did prior to sending the Secretary of State into harms way. If they cant handle a little town meeting how in the hell can they fight a War?

This President is taking us down a path to International humiliation as we tuck our tail and run - three navel battle groups will have to retreat.  We are not waving the saber REALLY! - More lies from this Administration.

The other possibility is even worse, we attack, killing innocent women and children. In the Muslim world, this will be a call to arms. The Mid East Peace Talks will be over, a failure. The Iraq issue and the Peace Talks are not coupled REALLY! - More double talk or are they just plain stupid?

If we attack there will be demonstrations and conflict all over the Mid East and South East Asia. The Muslim moderate population will be forced into the Muslim radical camp, creating one gigantic powder keg.

The World knows the President is in political and legal trouble, and that it is not just a coincidence that he has picked now, after 5 years, to go after Iraq. The President is just trying to take the media off of his and his entire Administrations illegal and indecent activities.

I have to say, IMHO, that there are so many crazy things going on right now, and none of them appear to be under any form of control. It appears, that everything is only days from coming totally apart. There is no way now that the issues on the table will be resolved successfully. Illegal fund raising, Lies, witness tampering, sexual harassment, and WAR. And the list goes on and on.

The current situation has to rank with the best Gold environments in the history of the world. This has to be right up there with Sodom and Gomorrah and the fall of the Roman Empire.


Just posted on the local TV News:
59% of the respondents in a Columbus TV News Poll say we should NOT go to WAR .

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:30 - ID#372344)
@ USA... Iraq...Russia....
The "gang" of three Cohen, Allbright and Burger tour was still on
going at this late hour, with a stint at Nightline with Ted, ( no
not the Kitco Cop ) , with Maddy saying " The US is the only Superpower
and we will go it alone if we have to" and Cohen said something like
"If we don't Bomb Iraq now, we will then be forced to Bomb others
soon like Iran and N.Korea to eliminate their weapons of mass destruction" to which Ted asked "since public opinion seems to be divided, why did we not Bomb the Soviet Union or Turkey when
they invaded other countries, they too have weapons of mass destruction" no direct reply from any of them.....hmmmm.....
The following url is rather telling of the almost unbelievable monetary stranglehold the IMF ( US ) has on Russia.

One can see why Russia has been warning the US about Bombing
Iraq, and starting WW3, maybe it is the only way to "get" the IMF off
it's back,and IMHV they'd better take Boris seriously. I can remember
as few years ago when I stayed up all night to watch "LIVE" CNN
coverage of Boris's tanks literally demolish the Russian Parliament buildings with the legislators still inside.....

stay tuned.....

John Disney__A
(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:35 - ID#24135)
Harmony isn't bidding yet .. nobody told ME
To All
A slight correction to headline in TZ posting ..
"harmony to bid for evander"... Have not seen this...
Harmony "hopes" to buy evander .. or up to perhaps 30 %
of it as they believe they can turn it around.
Evander comprises the old Kinross, Winkelhaak, Bracken,
and Leslie mines. If Harmony consumed this animal their
resources would rise from 70 mil to almost 100 mil oz.
From 20 mil a couple of years ago. I think we may be
seeing a new Anglos in the making.
To all RSA watches ..
By the way, where did the strike here ( that was going
to make NA mine holders rich ) go ?? I think a strike
would just finish off the NUM ... But there could be
a fight over closing Leeudoorn and Libanon .. and I
think its stupid to run them. They should have been
closed 2 years ago ( but politically impossible then )
so opportunity must not be missed NOW.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:35 - ID#293211)
Baghdad sits on fateful 33 deg. N. latitude (BAD OMEN)
The first experimental nuclear explosion occurred near Alamogordo, NM at 33 deg N. Latitude. A Nuclear bomb was dropped at Nagasaki, Japan which is also located on the 33 deg N. latitude. I am fearful the US will find the reason to set off a tactical nuclear device in baghdad for some reason. They do not have enough ground based troops to fight a land war. The policy has been defined if BIO agents are used the US is free to use nuclear weapons in exchange. When this accomplished every muslin in the world will have all the justification for the holy war. The media will call this war WW3 when in fact it is not. It will come later.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:35 - ID#28585)
...and this time, Au outlook is amazingly bullish.


Because America ( and, ergo, the U.S. dollar ) are facing a lose-lose situation in Iraq.

If America goes in and decimates the Iraqi people as it did in '93, it will be reviled and cursed throughout the world ( currently, it is merely despised ) . America will be perceived as a disgusting bully beating up on a poor helpless country. In the aftermath, weaker countries will more actively seek out alternative currencies or assets ( other than U.S. buck ) to transact commerce ( whether in the form of the new EURO, the proposed ASEAN currency or whatever ) . American financial markets trading at presposterous P/E ratios will drop like rocks falling from the top of the World Trade Centre.

If America goes in and gets involved in a Vietnam-like imbroglio, it will be perceived as ineffective and the U.S. buck will inevitably weaken. In doing so, the stock and bond markets will likely collapse as foreign money deserts absurdly over-valued American markets.

If America simply does nothing ( that is, calls all its ships and planes home ) and Saddam remains in power and the Iraqui status quo persists, then America will be perceived as wishy-washy...the hallmark of a decadent, failing world-power. Again, the U.S. buck will trash as foreigners lose faith in America's claims to greatness.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:38 - ID#252150)
Leland@"The Green Left"--that certainly sounds like a publication that
we could depend on for balanced reporting.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:39 - ID#257148)
One world, after all......
Acktualy, old bean, I forwarded a love letter to you from Tedley.

The longer I linger here, the more I realise the commonality of our experiences, expectations and hopes. I consider myself very fortunate to have been attracted to this site where our discussions range far and wide, yet still keep a focus on gold, ( eh Bart ) .

Truly this is a convocation of sages. Sometimes I dont know how you'all put up with. If it was up to me, I'd have evicted myself months ago.,


(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:44 - ID#252150)
The CIA@Clueless Insipid Assholes
They could'nt organize a gang bang at a Mexican whorehouse.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:45 - ID#339212)

The problem is that the US will bring in other countries against Iraq,
so that will never be blamed. The US will play the "allies game" and will pretend that it is acting on behalf of the "free world".

Expect incidences like the one in Athens to increase world wide, including at home. It will be scary to fly on an airplane, let alone abroad, with an unpopular war in existence.

I hope we don't see skyjackings and terrorism, but I am afraid we will.
We Americans will be the target and this concerns me and should also concern all of us.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:45 - ID#266105)
@aurator/sines of times

Did a little car shopping on the way, the old flivver's getting
down at the heels. Think it was a Ford lot, one of the new passenger
models sporting a downright militaristic new nosejob, damn ugly.
Kinda fighter jet reminiscent, all but the flames and teeth. Some
of the other new jobbies had that trend maybe, given an imaginative

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:46 - ID#31876)
High Rise, It Is Crazzzy, Here's The WASHINGTON POST Today

John Disney__A
(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:48 - ID#24135)
The risk of What ?
for Myrmidon..
Sometimes I think I'd be lost without you..
but .. pardon me.. I feel that the risk of loss of MONEY
is much higher in NA mines than in the RSA mines... But then
this is not a course in Econ 101 or anything else. Should
NA mines be the ONLY way to play the gold market .. Id buy
bonds, or trade currencies for a living.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:50 - ID#31876)
Should Have Checked That Last URL~~~

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:53 - ID#355361)
Aurator in NZ
Hi Aurator, as a Canadian who is seeing our once-independent nation dragged into this thing I can sympathize with NZ. Why is this a US initiative and why does the US not pay its UN assessment, thereby making this a UN ( world ) matter? Our countries should not be partnering with the US; instead they should be insisting upon a WORLD ( UN ) handling of the matter.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 00:59 - ID#28585)
No doubt about it...good time to buy the old Ag while media scares the litte guys out of the metal.

February 19, 1998

Market Place: Is Silver Yesterday's Glitter or
Today's Prudent Investment?


he battle for silver's honor is on. Will silver slip back into a commodity
backwater? Or will it, with its newest champion, Warren E. Buffett, supplant
gold, and become an investment that is talked about at cocktail parties and that
money managers recommend as part of an investor's portfolio?

At the moment, there is no obvious answer. Silver's price has jumped 40 percent since
July. And there is plenty of talk of the price going higher, given Mr. Buffett's interest in
it. But silver has quickly given up its Buffett gains. Yesterday, it dropped below $6.615
an ounce -- the price that the near-month contract closed at on Feb. 3, the evening Mr.
Buffett announced he had taken control of 129.7 million ounces of silver.

Indeed, silver rose for only two days after Mr. Buffett's announcement, to $7.28 an
ounce, before drifting downward. Yesterday, the March contract on the Comex division
of the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $6.565 an ounce, down 20.5 cents.

This is not to say that the Buffett rally is over. He is an investor who knows what he is
doing and made his bet on silver after looking at the fundamentals: the demand for silver
has outstripped new production for years. For him, in other words, silver was
undervalued. And he also started buying when silver was $4.32 an ounce and has made a
tidy profit at current prices.

But the recent retreat in price may make some investors wonder, especially those who
were not smart enough to begin buying as early as Mr. Buffett did.

Silver has had its fortunes rise, and its backers, before. William Jennings Bryan, silver's
champion a century ago, is remembered for his losing battle for the free coinage of silver.
( "You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold," he railed. )

There will have to be a further move higher to confirm the Buffett magic and to make
silver more than a flash-in-the-pan commodity. And if there isn't, then there may be
selling in the near term as anxious investors take advantage of the best silver prices in a

"The higher prices will bring out sellers in any market," said Tom Kaplan, chief
executive of Apex Silver Mines, a venture in which George Soros has a major stake,
"The question is will there be buyers." He is betting there will be. "The validation of
silver as an investment will lead to greater buyers than sellers," Mr. Kaplan predicted.

The recent fall in silver reflects several factors that don't point to much higher prices. One
is demand from India, one of the largest single consuming nations for silver, mostly as
jewelry and bars. Last year, according to William O'Neill, director of futures research at
Merrill Lynch, Indians bought about 130 million ounces of silver, the same quantity as
Mr. Buffett.

But at $7 an ounce, Indian demand has dried up, he said. And there has been some
selling. In November, when analysts first noted the decline in buying from India, the
average price of silver was just over $5 an ounce.

"It is very unlikely, unless you see a significant drop in price, that you will see India
coming in for as much silver this year," Mr. O'Neill said. Beyond that, Mr. Buffett has
said he has stopped his buying.

Another factor is that the higher price has, as Mr. Kaplan noted, brought out sellers.
According to traders, the sales of silver bars and coins to brokerage firms have more then
tripled recently.

Tobina Kahn of the House of Kahn, an estate dealer and buyer in Chicago and Palm
Beach, Fla., has seen a similar kind of selling. Grandmothers and granddaughters, she
said, have suddenly begun selling their old silver tea sets and flatware. In the last two
weeks, she said, the House of Kahn has bought more than $50,000 of antique silver
while, before the Buffett announcement, "we could go two to three months without
purchasing silver."

A trader who works for a major buyer of silver argued that it "was fundamentally sound"
around $6 an ounce. He said that the Buffett buying meant that many investors were
likely to buy silver if the price fell some more. But he thought that silver had seen its
near-term high.

Speaking on the condition that he not be identified, he acknowledged that his firm had
already sold its large silver cache. But he argued that because of the growing use of
digital cameras -- which will replace photographic film and, as a result, reduce much of
the demand -- as well as new silver production, the much-heralded deficit in silver supply
should disappear by 2000.

For example, Industrias Penoles S.A. of Mexico, the world's largest silver producer,
said last week that it would increase its production by about 5 percent this year, to 38.6
million ounces.

Robert L. Leclerc, the chairman and chief operating officer of Echo Bay Mines in
Englewood, Colo., said his company had already sold in advance much of its 1998 silver
production at $5.33 an ounce. Most of the rest of it could be sold at $5.94 an ounce.

He said yesterday that he could not now find anyone who wanted to buy his silver at $7
an ounce. And while his production will fall to 7 million to 8 million ounces this year,
from 11 million last year, he says "it will be a huge stretch to think we will see a new
silver price in double digits."

Mr. Leclerc may have missed a big profit, while Mr. Buffett still has most of his. So
whom do you believe? "I would defer to his wisdom," Mr. Leclerc said.

And that is where Mr. Buffett comes in. He is a long-term investor. But if he decides that
silver is near or at its peak, is he going to keep it?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 01:04 - ID#339212)
@ John Disney

Well, there is the risk of all the miners walking out of the RSA mines and calling a strike, not a probable scenario in NA mines. At least the miners have better working conditions and salaries here in NA.

Am I wrong?

..or is the statement "Yield is proportional to risk" wrong?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 01:05 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Farfel -- What we are doing to Iraq can be NO accident. What has happened to the currencies of SE Asia can be no accident. What WILL happen to the price of gold will be NO accident! The only question remaining is when. The dollar and equities can remain strong until Rubin/Greenspan capitulate on the fundamentals. Things that can spoil any of their planning: Natural catatrophies; I.E. A major, or several MAJOR earthquakes in the U.S. that do one hell of a LOT of damage. That could slow things down and re-direct priorities and resources. Someone nuke a large city here. Same thing. Someone expend a few ampules of germs about a large city. Again, same thing. I'm sure there are quite a number of scenarios that might also do the job of 'turning attention' inwards. In the mean time, the usual 'fun-n-games' will be the order of the day, I'm sure. 'Accidents' in politics and money don't often happen!

Aurator -- Sometimes I don't know how I stand it either. But, I really don't believe there is all that much rosiness about in other lands either. At least not enough MORE to substantiate an egress from here. Shoot, can't hardly even own a weapon of mass-'protection' ( gun ) in Aussie land anymore! And things are 'bad' here? Not quite yet. They ARE working on it, but it isn't that bad QUITE yet. How about in NZ?

John Disney__A
(Thu Feb 19 1998 01:07 - ID#24135)
Crapola at town hall
To All
I saw the end of the town hall crapola.. I thought the
admin team looked a little shaken at the end .. but backed
away as gracefully as possible saying it was a "celebration
of democracy" and that this kind of debate wouldn't be
possible under Saddam. It was reassuring to see a US audience
that couldnt be manipulated .. and after all these years of
conditioning... whats big brother coming to ... shoudda sent
in barbra streisand and whoopie ... they coulda pulled it off
a lot better.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 01:08 - ID#210235)
Thanks for posting that URL. Columbus, Ohio is said to be an important test market. Just adds another piece of evidence to farfel's well-considered 00:35.

fundaMETAList - the nice thing about mis-timing a precious metals purchase is that you can always take possession, and hold it. Wouldn't want to do that with pork bellies.


TED - take care. That flu is a b****.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 01:09 - ID#348129)
@President Hillary and First Lady Bill
February 16, 1998 Cyriuss Investor:

The Osiris Report: Dr. Doom: WWW III?
The Central Investment Agency Research Team

Dick Morris, President Clinton's former chief strategist, announced in Friday's edition of the Hill, a Washington-based political newspaper, that Hillary Rodham, took over on January 21st, when the Lewinsky scandal began hitting the mainstream media. Her pitbull, James Carville, announced over that weekend that war had been declared. This, like the widely anticipated Iraqi airstrike, is a phony PR war. This war will spit out lakes of black ink, not bullets and bombs. This is the war that may never be. Thank God!

Hillary Rodham, the new U.S. president, has coldly calculated the following outcomes, if there really was going to be a war:

A. The U.S. would lose; or

B. The heavy airstrikes would escalate into WW3 or a repeat of the 1970s wave of international terrorism and anti-Americanism.

U.S. President Rodham has no intention of spoiling the next three years of her term with either of these options. In either event, the US stock markets would tank and that is her Number One priority over the next three years: To ensure that the DJIA, SP 500 and NASDAQ Composite Index all continue making record highs. With blustering Bill, it might have been another story, but not with Hillary. All of the "war talk" is just another tool, covering up a host of self-indulgent presidential travesties and policy failures. The Bill Clinton administration has failed in every sense of the word. The house-of-cards economy was created largely by the Republican-dominated Congress, not by a White House whose sole footnote in history will probably read something like this: William Jefferson Clinton merrily presided over a scandal-ridden administration, nearly escaping impeachment proceedings, and whose presidency ended shortly before the Second Great Depression arrived.

In the meantime, we are witnessing one of the greatest cover-ups in the history of the world. A better magic show that David Copperfield making elephants disappear into thin air. Had any uniformed government official, military or law enforcement, been on the receiving end of this many sexual allegations, obstructions of justice charges, or perjury charges, he would have long ago been toast. But as President, he merely vanishes to Camp David or any golf course, where OJ isn't hacking away, and smiles/waves for the cameras, and all is forgotten. The Hillary Rodham White House remains content in bewildering an American public, ever more confused as to HOW EXACTLY a President could garner such an outrageous approval rating. Picture this: On talk radio shows across America, in coffee shops and restaurants, in nightclubs and libraries, Americans are asking each other - WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT CLINTON? Who exactly was polled? Hillary polling the Clinton Inner Circle? This may be the first time, but not the last, when political polls were repeatedly used as an effective marketing strategy to crush the criminal activity of a U.S. President.

Let's get to the WAR, since that is what seems to attract TV viewers. Despite what you've heard, there will be NO war. Not even an airstrike. Ok, maybe just one, but we seriously doubt one bomb will ever drop. Don't be shocked. We thought this over, long and carefully. Like you, we figured war was inevitable. Surely no later than by the end of March, probably by the end of February. We spent hours examining all of the predictions, from February 17th to after the Nagano Olympics. Even studied the lunar cycle to determine when the sky would be darkest for bombs to drop.

No, it appears that the Rodham White House is adhering to the "Wag the Dog" movie script and this will be just a phony television war. Frantic statesmen rushing from country to country to recruit support for the cause, on both sides of the coin. You must admit, this strategy does sell papers. Perhaps even more newspapers than the tawdry tale of a young White House intern.

When you examine how historically well connected everyone in this scandal seems to be, you just have to pause for a fresh breath of air. R. Peter Straus, the 72-year old boyfriend of Monica's mother Marcia Lewis, has the distinguished Vernon Jordan on the board of directors of Straus Communications. Judge Wright, hearing the Paula Jones civil case, was once a student in a law class taught by William Jefferson Clinton. Linda Tripp appears to be the evil witch on everyone's hit list, having served with Vince Foster, witnessed the Kathleen Willey post-sexual harassment episode and shared coffee with Monica What a busy broad! President Hillary even has the inside track on impeachment proceedings, having once worked on such for a predecessor, Mr. Nixon. Attorney Mickey Kantor, the former U.S. trade representative, was quietly brought back onto the Clinton legal bandwagon, during the he's-going-to-resign weekend, and then quickly forgotten; some suggest Mr. Kantor cut a deal with his old friend, Bill Ginsburg, over Superbowl weekend, to ensure Monica gets a presidential pardon for her silence.

Face it, Hillary had grasped the implications of letting Bill continue sliding into the abyss. The Clintons are broke, don't own a car and are prime candidates for the leniency of U.S. bankruptcy laws. Even a fantastic book deal wouldn't bring them enough gold in their retirment years! Simply giving up just wouldn't do. Instead, she has turned around the entire affair and laid the blame square into Mr. Starr's lap. While biding her time, to kick this story off the front pages of virtually every international newspaper, Ms. Rodham escalated the shrill shriek of the "likely" Iraqi air strike.

What fool would actually believe the U.S. would accomplish anything more than international condemnation by dropping hundreds of bombs onto a country whose people are practically at the end of their rope! Iraq is in a severe economic depression. A Rodham White House lives for public approval! The cold, hard reality of bodybags streaming off an airplane ramp would tarnish those polls a tad. Most military strategists have readily admitted that little would be won with such an airstrike. And it would be expensive, too! The main objective, removing Hussein from his dictatorial perch, would never be accomplished except by an accident, without ground troops invading Iraq. A weakened U.S. military, weakened ( of course ) by policies engendered by the Clinton White House, has neither the competence nor the will to sustain a major invasion. The troops just aren't up to laying down their lives in the midst of the economic prosperity; many are spending their idle hours arguing over which mutual funds will offer the best returns.

If there were a war, oh boy. For starters, of the five permanent seats on the UN Security Council, three ( Russia, China, France ) have vehemently objected to an airstrike. Saddam's PR boys aren't slouches, either. Iraq just cut a huge trade deal with Jordan, one of the few Arab countries which aren't chastising the U.S. for their attempted aggression; even that country's population is loudly demonstrating. Iran has slowly been warming up to their mortal enemy, Iraq, simply because of the U.S. war talk. Before this week is out, we are probably going to read of other Arab nations condemning the U.S. It isn't going to be pretty. If the US-UK airstrike actually commences, Iraq could very well target Israel. The repercussions might be nuclear, on Baghdad. Then, well, you figure it out.

Until the Lewinsky scandal slides into the void of the attention-deficit-disorder American public, we will hear the war cry to decimate Iraq. It may even grow louder, but war is not likely to happen. For now, such a climate provides an opportunity for cashing in on the next run of the U.S. bull market. The only problem facing President Rodham is how to divert the public's attention from Iraq, once the Clinton scandal evaporates. Another Asian crisis? Indonesia is performing just as we predicted in our previous column. The worst has yet to begin over there.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 01:10 - ID#372344)
@ Myrmidon...agree with your general statement ,I would add, risk or perceived risk...

(Thu Feb 19 1998 01:11 - ID#153102)
6Pak Don't Blame US. The Kiwi's and Canuck's made us do it.
But, seriously, aurator, I'm honored to be mentioned in your post. I hope every Kiwi gets home whole and hardy. I wish NZ all the most favored best, but, you know, this trooping off with bands and flags to make the world safe for demon-cracy hasn't worked worth dodo diddle.

Yes, 6Pak, no demon-cracy and greenbacks for me, thank you. I want nothing but the Republic ( res publica ) and gold and silver coin. Remember Yeltsin's recent quote from Lincoln about the use of force ??

(Thu Feb 19 1998 01:15 - ID#335190)
Hold the WAR @ 400 Canadian Troops-"clothe-the-soldier"-Canada will sent the Salvation Army.
February 18, 1998
Shortage of combat clothing temporary: Eggleton

OTTAWA ( CP )  Defence Minister Art Eggleton says the Canadian Armed Forces are short of combat clothing, but the problem is being dealt with.

"It's a temporary situation," Eggleton said outside the Commons on Wednesday. He was commenting on a newspaper ad requesting soldiers to return combat pants and shirts for redistribution to the second rotation of peacekeepers to Bosnia.

"Does the minister think it's good for morale to turn the Canadian army into the Salvation Army?" demanded Reform MP Leon Benoit, reading the ad in question period.

The ad reads: "Request and appeal to all military personnel at 15 Wing who presently hold combat shirts and trousers that are not being used for operational reasons to please return the clothing to the stores so that these items may go into the system to properly kit Roto 2 of OP Palladium."

The ad ran in the December issue of a newspaper for military personnel based at Moose Jaw, Sask.

In 1996, the auditor general reported shortages of personal clothing and equipment for the Armed Forces. In response, the government announced a $500-million "clothe-the-soldier" program. Benoit wanted to know where the money went.

"Will the minister of National Defence explain to the men and women in our forces why $500 million can't even buy them proper pants?"

Eggleton said it is normal for the Armed Forces to issue appeals for the return of combat equipment after personnel return from combat zones.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 01:15 - ID#339212)

The article you posted does not indicate if the ECO chief has bought silver calls to protect for a silver rally. If he hasn't ( and a rally occurs ) , he will regret it.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 01:20 - ID#31876)
Your 01:15 reminds me of those wooden rifles issued just before
WWII. Thanks.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 01:24 - ID#28585)
...I would not be surprised to discover that they sold a heapload of silver call options ( just like TVX ) .

They are a bankruptcy waiting to happen.

P.S. There are probably two plausible scenarios to the sudden spate of anti-silver media articles these last few days:

1 ) Desperate mining companies ( like TVX ) that have played the derivatives game ( in writing huge call option volume on silver ) are using media influence to save their financial butts.

2 ) WB using his considerable media influence to drive down price, either because he himself has written huge call option volume on Ag or else for purposes of further re-accumulation at lower prices.

At this point in time, the main thing to watch are COMEX inventories....they continue to fall so there is little need to fear in terms of a medium term silver collapse.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 01:34 - ID#173274)
@the scene
6Pak -- Jeesh! Soon, one might be expecting the government to require their soldiers to buy their own clothing, bullets and grenades for the extreme privilege and pleasure of serving in the 'maavelous' service. HAR! And people actually sign up for this crap to be cannon-fodder! ( like they are REALLY protecting their own borders! RIIIIIIGHT ) . Totally amazing! And I won't relegate this message just to our neighbors to the north.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 01:36 - ID#28585)
We really have entered a "no-fear" Au and Ag market for the first time in years. There is little doubt that '98 will present the same ultra-bullish scenario for gold that we witnessed in '93.

I know the Chinese are calling '98 "The Year of the Tiger. However, in reality, this is definitely turning out to be the "Year of Left Field Events."

Just sit back, relax, and prepare to rake it in. Let's just pray that the left field events do not become so erratic and disturbing as to endanger our collective well-being.

It does nobody any good to have the nicest chair on the Titanic.

And now ( YAAAAAAWWWWN ) to bed.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 01:36 - ID#335190)
Canada @ Peace Keepers
February 18, 1998
Public opinion a factor in foreign policy: professor

OTTAWA ( CP ) - The people who draft foreign policy are abandoning a long-held belief that they don't really have to worry about public opinion, a Montreal academic said Wednesday.

Pierre Martin, a University of Montreal professor, told a seminar on civil-military relations that it was once thought that public opinion was irrelevant to foreign policy because "people didn't know all that much about what was going on in the world."

Because the public mood was seen as volatile and unstable in such areas, it was taken for granted it could be safely ignored.

While people may not be up on every nuance of international affairs, they do hold to certain moral positions and they apply them to foreign policy issues.

For example, he said, Canadians are very supportive of the country's role in peacekeeping.

John Disney__A
(Thu Feb 19 1998 01:40 - ID#24135)
Relax.. Myrmidon.. TZ agrees with you .. no peer pressure
For Myrmidon
Cross eyed mouse speaks..
you said..
"Well, there is the risk of all the miners walking out of the RSA mines and calling a strike, not a probable scenario in NA mines. At least the miners have better working conditions and salaries here in NA.
Am I wrong? "
Mouse says ... "Yes and No ... So you may have a short strike.
Not likely but possible ... so what.. workers always seem to
return from strikes .. ever notice that?? world doesn't end.
Miners in US .. are paid competitively by US standards I hope ...
Miners in RSA are paid competively by RSA standards .. otherwise
they wouldnt work in the mines anyway.. the MUCH talked of BUT
NOT happening strike is NOT over more pay but over LOSS
OF jobs... THINK about that for a while.. I'm gonna strike cause
you're gonna retrench me ... and if my strike is illegal I
lose my severance pay ... meditate on that for a while"
then you said
"..or is the statement "Yield is proportional to risk" wrong?""tinues

visually challenged mouse continues

"Yes I think it is as wrong as can be ... should say risk of
loss of investment ... believe risks of loss of investment
higher now on most NA mines than RSA mines at current relative
price levels and relative average production costs"
Mouse expresses opinion -

"I believe YOU may be confusing RISK with lots of other things
like general anxiety, fear of failure, acceptance by your
peers, being a nice guy, general paranoia, being needled by
panic merchants , nervous stomach, gas pains, and the like."

On that note, mouse turns, bumps into door, leaves room,
vows never to be drawn into silly discussions like this

(Thu Feb 19 1998 01:40 - ID#372344)
@ My Heard on the St. at 17:48 Feb 18, 1998 on "Ohio Town Hall Disaster"said it first, BIG mistake

(Thu Feb 19 1998 01:42 - ID#339212)

ECO's Leclerc sold most of the company's 1998 silver production at $5.33!

Did he really see silver prices going below $5.33?

Amazing contradiction: Buffett buys, Leclerc sells!

(Thu Feb 19 1998 01:43 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Farfel -- Collective well-being WILL BE 'disturbed'! From many sides.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 01:45 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Farfel -- Collective well-being WILL BE 'disturbed'! From many sides.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 01:59 - ID#339212)
@ John Disney

John, you may consider the discussion silly and not worth your time to talk to "nuts" like me but IMHO I would like to make a comment:

I have seen many, many companies which once upon a time yielded the 15% but this did not last long. The divideds were cut and those investors who bought the stock for the dividend sold it and the price went down. This is capital risk.

I apologize for appearing so stupid to you, but this has happened to me many times in DOW stocks. I learned one thing, NEVER BUY YIELD.

So, again IMHO, the high yield of RSA gold stocks, is a temporary disparity.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 02:01 - ID#257148)
War, War, what's it good for? Absolutely NOTHING
Yes, it is galling. The US is in arrears with the UN. Some leadership, Huh? Without wishing to be too inflamatory, I thought the "reason" for the Sabre rattling was breach of UN imposed conditions of peace. But what do I know? just an antipodean mushroom, eh 6-Pack?

Yeh, v complicated until some bstrd tries to take something that don't belong to 'em. THen you think, well if this little tyke is gonna steal from X, how long is it gonna be before he thinks he can steal from Y, then Z then Me. Thanks for pulling the chain.

NZ has the third highest per capita gun holding in the world behind USA and Finland which has a standing army. The regulations have changed recently imposing greater restrictions on gun ownership. As has been frewuently noted, increasing the difficulty of gun ownership to law abiding citizens does nothing to remove guns from the criminals. And we gotta a bunch of them, and not all of them are Australians.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 02:08 - ID#252150)
Former Gulf War Leaders Urge Caution
From the Times:
MILITARY commanders from the Desert Storm conflict and leading politicians are openly voicing their doubts about what another air strike in Iraq will achieve.

Several military figures, including General Norman Schwarzkopf, who led the Allied forces in 1991, fear that it will not affect Saddam Hussein's capability to produce chemical and biological weapons, and may split the international coalition.

Commander Merrill McPeak, who commanded the air forces during Operation Desert Storm, said he doubted whether the military's latest and most accurate equipment could destroy Saddam's capacity to produce chemical and biological weapons. "I think there will be civilian casualties and that is a very unfortunate prospect," he said. "We have discriminating military instruments at hand, but there will be some unsought collateral damage. That's part of the action.

"We will probably lose some American pilots. And there is a risk of us not achieving 100 per cent destruction of the programmes he has in place. We may get 50 per cent, or 30 per cent, maybe 20 per cent. It is hard to say."

Admiral Sir James Eberle, former Nato Commander-in-Chief Channel 1979-81 and former Director of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, said: "We have got ourselves into a mess. The risk of not achieving what I understand to be the purpose is considerable and the cost of failure will be very high indeed. This is a very risky venture.

"I have worries about the legitimacy in international law. The Americans seem to be saying that even if the United Nations Secretary General is satisfied with a deal from Baghdad the US might still bomb him. The Americans are running a demonic policy.

"It is highly doubtful we can eradicate all that Saddam has, and what is to stop him from building up such stocks again after this action is over? The military and the politicians say they cannot remove him so surely it is his mind that needs changing and we should negotiate, not threaten."

General Sir Peter de la Billire, who commanded the British forces in the Gulf War, recently gave a warning against adopting a "gung ho" attitude to the conflict. He said: "There are few, if any, examples of air power alone succeeding in defeating and bringing to heel such a determined and resolute enemy as Saddam."

He also said that anything short of a full-scale invasion with ground forces could enhance Saddam's prestige among his Arab neighbours at the expense of the UN and the British and American forces.

General Schwarzkopf said the United States risked being dragged into a protracted Vietnam-style conflict. In Vietnam, the bombing campaign was escalated without achieving military or political goals.

He also forecast that a sustained bombing campaign would not force Saddam to comply with the United Nations' weapons inspections teams, and could jeopardise the fragile international coalition against Saddam. "He wants the sanctions lifted and, if the coalition fractures, he has a good chance of having the sanctions lifted. So he might not mind a big strike."

Flight Lieutenant John Nichol, whose Tornado was shot down on the first day of the Gulf War and who was tortured during the 42 days he spent in captivity, has reservations about what another bombing mission against Iraq might achieve. "Shall we bomb the mosques and palaces in civilian areas, which is almost certainly where Saddam will have hidden his store of chemical weapons?" he asked. "It is going to work against us.'

Alan Clark, the former Tory Defence Minister, said: "The scene has much of the appearance of an impending retributive military action whose consequences have not been fully thought through. History shows that such actions can be the precursors of very long wars indeed."

Lord Gilmour of Craigmillar, a former Tory Defence Minister, told the Lords on Tuesday: "There is little doubt that air strikes will lead to a considerable increase in Islamic fundamentalism. It will do considerable damage to pro-Western regimes in the Arab world."

BA moves Kuwait jets

British Airways flights which usually terminate in Kuwait will now go on to Bahrain, after crews expressed concern. A BA spokesman said: "Our absolute priority is the safety of our passengers and crew." The airline was criticised after the Gulf War by passengers who were taken captive from a BA flight which landed in Kuwait just before the invasion.

MILITARY commanders from the Desert Storm conflict and leading politicians are openly voicing their doubts about what another air strike in Iraq will achieve.

Several military figures, including General Norman Schwarzkopf, who led the Allied forces in 1991, fear that it will not affect Saddam Hussein's capability to produce chemical and biological weapons, and may split the international coalition.

Commander Merrill McPeak, who commanded the air forces during Operation Desert Storm, said he doubted whether the military's latest and most accurate equipment could destroy Saddam's capacity to produce chemical and biological weapons. "I think there will be civilian casualties and that is a very unfortunate prospect," he said. "We have discriminating military instruments at hand, but there will be some unsought collateral damage. That's part of the action.

"We will probably lose some American pilots. And there is a risk of us not achieving 100 per cent destruction of the programmes he has in place. We may get 50 per cent, or 30 per cent, maybe 20 per cent. It is hard to say."

Admiral Sir James Eberle, former Nato Commander-in-Chief Channel 1979-81 and former Director of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, said: "We have got ourselves into a mess. The risk of not achieving what I understand to be the purpose is considerable and the cost of failure will be very high indeed. This is a very risky venture.

"I have worries about the legitimacy in international law. The Americans seem to be saying that even if the United Nations Secretary General is satisfied with a deal from Baghdad the US might still bomb him. The Americans are running a demonic policy.

"It is highly doubtful we can eradicate all that Saddam has, and what is to stop him from building up such stocks again after this action is over? The military and the politicians say they cannot remove him so surely it is his mind that needs changing and we should negotiate, not threaten."

General Sir Peter de la Billire, who commanded the British forces in the Gulf War, recently gave a warning against adopting a "gung ho" attitude to the conflict. He said: "There are few, if any, examples of air power alone succeeding in defeating and bringing to heel such a determined and resolute enemy as Saddam."

He also said that anything short of a full-scale invasion with ground forces could enhance Saddam's prestige among his Arab neighbours at the expense of the UN and the British and American forces.

General Schwarzkopf said the United States risked being dragged into a protracted Vietnam-style conflict. In Vietnam, the bombing campaign was escalated without achieving military or political goals.

He also forecast that a sustained bombing campaign would not force Saddam to comply with the United Nations' weapons inspections teams, and could jeopardise the fragile international coalition against Saddam. "He wants the sanctions lifted and, if the coalition fractures, he has a good chance of having the sanctions lifted. So he might not mind a big strike."

Flight Lieutenant John Nichol, whose Tornado was shot down on the first day of the Gulf War and who was tortured during the 42 days he spent in captivity, has reservations about what another bombing mission against Iraq might achieve. "Shall we bomb the mosques and palaces in civilian areas, which is almost certainly where Saddam will have hidden his store of chemical weapons?" he asked. "It is going to work against us.'

Alan Clark, the former Tory Defence Minister, said: "The scene has much of the appearance of an impending retributive military action whose consequences have not been fully thought through. History shows that such actions can be the precursors of very long wars indeed."

Lord Gilmour of Craigmillar, a former Tory Defence Minister, told the Lords on Tuesday: "There is little doubt that air strikes will lead to a considerable increase in Islamic fundamentalism. It will do considerable damage to pro-Western regimes in the Arab world."

BA moves Kuwait jets

British Airways flights which usually terminate in Kuwait will now go on to Bahrain, after crews expressed concern. A BA spokesman said: "Our absolute priority is the safety of our passengers and crew." The airline was criticised after the Gulf War by passengers who were taken captive from a BA flight which landed in Kuwait just before the invasion.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 02:12 - ID#41229)
Just caught your post,one thing I learned from trading comodities is, YOU NEED GOOD FILLS. The trade you made I would of not, silver swings way to much, option safer for silver. I followed comodities seriously for a ^ months. Made good money on corn, wheat, lumber and had the porkbelly market down where I could call a reversal on the # to $ day trend it trades in. The only problem that I discovered was the fills were not even close where I place the mark. I beleive the guys in the pit set people up. The fills and stops hardly met what I placed. I tried several different brokers ( theives ) with different clearing houses. I did find ADM to have the best fills in the grains. I got so dismayed I thought markets were fixed to a certain degree. On major moves, no problems, but on channeling its rigged. Of course IMNHO

(Thu Feb 19 1998 02:20 - ID#41229)
^=6 $=4
Couldn't keep finger off of the shift key


John Disney__A
(Thu Feb 19 1998 02:22 - ID#24135)
Fundamentals LEAD perceptions FOLLOW
For farfel
Dear Bluto..esque buddy ..
I was unaware of these strange derivitive goings on
in The NA mines ... why not just shoot craps .. or
put the first quarters revenue on the favorite in the
first at Aqueduct. We seem to entering the desperate
gambling phase of the demise of some of these mines..
Next step is the Russian Roulette Phase.
( mouse speaks .. did I smell CHEESE or was that RISK )

for Myrmidon
I love you like a brother.. But THINK .. I believe you
have a mindset situation.. Im NOT talking about YIELDS
and never WAS .. please do us BOTH a favour.. your experiences
are not mine ... I TALK ABOUT COSTS COSTS COSTS and
RESERVES RESERVES RESERVES.. YOU talk about yield which is
less importance. Do what you like .. I dont care other than
that you do nicely.. Im not interested in an argument..
but I enjoy seeing people THINK CLEARLY .. I really do ..
Slogans from econ 101 will not help make you any money.

For Glenn ... Ok let gold go up .. silver go down .. let
platinum go up later .. Some other guys may be p!ssed but
I realise you cant move all the metals at the same time

(Thu Feb 19 1998 02:29 - ID#28885)
Gold up .70

John Disney__A
(Thu Feb 19 1998 02:39 - ID#24135)
Buy ROOSTER Bonds . Chickens love them. golden egg coupons
@Mozel@SDRer ..
At the risk of beating this to death .. I could never
understand Government bonds. I mean we KNOW that the
Gommunt taxes as much as it CAN .. but it still needs
money... so it sells bonds .. BUT if it taxes as much
as it CAN to begin with WHERE does the money come from
to pay the bond off at maturity and pay the interest.
Answer of course is print the dough. That's ok if you are
a CITIZEN of the country and your choice is get taxed
now or get screwed LATER ( so who cares ) . But selling
these phoney little numbers to FOREIGN countries WHO
DO THE SAME THING and must know how phoney they are
BUT we did it... so there MUST be a kicker.. these
MUST be Rooster bonds..

(Thu Feb 19 1998 02:41 - ID#39845)
something about the greenback
Its like polishing a turd, does not come up too good, but the longer you
polish, the further it goes. Its like making honey out of dogsh!t, what
you start with, looks ok, but starts to stink almost immediately. Its like
death, it paints its self into a corner. Its like a STD, turns on you when
could do with out it, then keeps on reminding you of its presence. Its
like surfing, if you spend enough time in the water, well, you wind up
head first in coral or as bait in jaws, or a tubed out wave junky.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 02:43 - ID#28885)
War in IRAQ
Got a mesage from a buddy of mine in the army reserves. He just got back last Sunday and he said that his commander said it was an 85% chance we were going in, so be ready. I saw him again today and his commander said more than last ditch effort with UN dude would be just that LAST DITCH! I also have heard from the grapevine that a Navy Seal team was in Iraq undetected, had Sadaam in their sights but were called off. Can anyone add any truth to this or is just hearsay?

John Disney__A
(Thu Feb 19 1998 02:45 - ID#24135)
One last point...
For mozel .. SDRer
Now that we have figured this out.. I suggest that we
start travelling by TRAIN if at all possible .. and drive
to work or wherever by different routes .. a little disguise
woundn't be a bad idea.. a Groucho Marx mask always worked well
for me.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 03:19 - ID#257148)
Token Humour post---

this talk of war is getting far too serial for my taste. Permit me to brighten up your mornings with a classic Abbott & Costello, from my nimble fingers ( gotta get my exercise ) .... see, I rilly like youse yankie fellas. Specially when ya stay at home... Youse OK, but ya spik funny, dont always get ya. but, she'll be right, mate,,, sweet as!


A: Now, on the St. Louis team we have Whos on first, Whats on second, I Dont Know is on third -
C: Thats what I want to find out -
A: Im telling you. Whos on first, Whats on second, I Dont Know is on third -
C: Well all Im trying to find out is whats the guys name on first base.
A: Oh, no, no, Whats on second base.
C: Im not asking you whos on second.
A: Whos on first.
C: Thats what Im trying to find out.
A: Well dont change the players around.
C: Im not changing nobody.
A: Now, take it easy.
C: Whats the guys name on first base?
A: Whats the guys name on second base.
C: Im not asking ya whos on second.
A: Whos on first.
C: I dont know.
A: Please, Now what is it you want to know?
C: What is the fellows name on third base?
A: What is the fellows name on second base.
C: Im not askin ya whos on second.
A: Whos on first.
C: I dont know.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 03:26 - ID#255151)
Wee Thoughts for the Wee Hours

I get the feeling that we are living through Indian Summer right now. Indian Summer is that period in late Autumn when the weather warms and the sun shines brightly. The last calm before the coming of Winter. Gotta agree with Eldorado about the need for a foxhole. I don't know just how ugly it will get, but I would guess very. Can't think of a better place to observe from, nor better folks to be with, than Kitco.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 03:34 - ID#344290)
@ Farfel re: Barrick's hedge see:
If you haven't checked out, you may want to - spells out the abc's of how they defer if spot higher than hedge price. Maybe now you see that what they say, they do.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 03:34 - ID#257148)
Get Real, Get Gold....
Is this the Indian summer of our discontent?

Our drought broke the day after I relented and bought water. I must be the ultimate contrary indicator.

aint my precious, precious?


(Thu Feb 19 1998 03:36 - ID#228283)
@ refer

Some food for thought. You are absolutely correct about good fills. But, I hate to burst your bubble; but I have to.
I have a friend who works at the board of trade. The '' locals '' ALWAYS fade the "paper" on scalps. It is vertually imposible to get a good fill operating through a brokerage house, unless you put in entry numbers, that way either you fill or not....better than getting raped and pillaged.

Part deux : Does anyone out there know how the NYSE is going to crash and GOLD go north when Greenspan is providing the enormous liquidity he is providing "the boys?" Have you guys looked @ the M2 and M3 figures in the last few weeks?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 03:47 - ID#257148)
You call that a languish??


I think I know what you mean

" the locals.....ALWAYS fade the "paper" on scalps. It is vertually imposible to get a good fill operating..."

but, like I just posted
" ya spik funny, dont always get ya.."

could you perhaps provide a one syllable anglo-saxon interpretation?

Sweet as!

(Thu Feb 19 1998 03:54 - ID#255151)

Hadn't heard that Abbott/Costello routine in years. What a classic! Here is the full text May you always have Most Favoured Poster status @ Kitco. Ersel--Maybe someone here has the figures, but I think that M2 was very strong prior to and during the severe bear market of '73-'74. ( many other parallels to that time exist now too, eh? )

(Thu Feb 19 1998 04:03 - ID#228283)
Crooks and thieves on the board of trade...

Definitions: LOCAL = a licenced market maker ( licenced to steal )
PIT CREW = Floor traders who own or lease seats on the
exchange ( licenced to pillage )
BROKERAGE = The place where blokes like you and me
place our orders to get raped. We are
also known as PAPER......which is what
our order is written on...which BURNS
rather easily....Bin dere dun dat,etc.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 04:14 - ID#228283)

Thanx for the full txt on A&C.. Needed that. Parallels...yes...bought my first gold coin in '74...a $5 Indian ...Those were the good old days.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 04:44 - ID#255284)
bouncy bouncy
You got bad e-mail breath, mate; amongst all the rebounding garbage I got, like Tedelina's, was this important bit

----- Transcript of session follows -----
451 ( ) ... Name server timeout

Stop taking time out ya lazy tennis player and serve ANOTHER name or something

I don't know if it was your message, old ean, but my Mac crashed about 20 mins ago, about when your devilish ISP unprovider bounded back de email and then I had trouble gettin a line out..

(Thu Feb 19 1998 04:56 - ID#255284)
Chiaroscuro, to you.

The full text is even better, thanks.

Thanks. But "fade the paper" is what threw me. and I guess we're not playing in shadows, huh?

Nothing has changed but the language since "Where are the customers yachts?" was written in 1940 about Wall St of 29.


(Thu Feb 19 1998 05:12 - ID#39845)
Think I'll top myself, now I can relax!
Thursday 19 February, 1998 ( 6:25pm AEDT )

Japanese police say a ruling party lawmaker being
investigated for illegally accepting money from a -MAJOR
BROKERAGE-, has committed suicide.

They say Shokei Arai died in Tokyo, just hours before his
parliamentary immunity from arrest was due to be lifted.

A parliamentary panel had earlier approved a request from
prosecutors who wanted to arrest Mr Arai over a share
trading scandal at Nikko Securities.

He was suspected of making 250-thousand dollars in profits
from allegedly unlawful dealings.

Return to the World News Menu

plus from the Asia Pacific Region in Indonesian, Chinese and Tok Pisin

 1998 Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Thu Feb 19 18:30:01 1998 ( AEDT )

(Thu Feb 19 1998 05:27 - ID#288295)
COMEX stocks 2/18


Registered... 298,574

Elligible.... 143,837

Total........ 442,411 no change


Registered... 30,981,340

Elligible.... 60,844,474

Total........ 91,825,814 -113,500

(Thu Feb 19 1998 05:39 - ID#31868)
There is nothing more valuable than the unpretentious ( spelling ) look of wonder in a childs eyes.

I swam this evening amidst the propellars, Halesite Harbor to be exact, they knew not that I was there.

To be evil is a learned trait, eventually, the good in man will win, to quote STING, love is stronger than justice.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 07:02 - ID#333131)
Anyone here this morning?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 07:03 - ID#26793)
Second "secret" meeting this week on currency problems

(Thu Feb 19 1998 07:07 - ID#31868)
H. Clinton
I want to strangle her to death. Let the band play on.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 07:17 - ID#26793)
Japan has first Asian trade deficet in 8 years

(Thu Feb 19 1998 07:20 - ID#26793)
Hi Carl: you are just in time to check my spelling deficet = deficit.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 07:28 - ID#351224)
Suharto goes for it!

(Thu Feb 19 1998 07:40 - ID#25588)
Silver SnP
Snowbird Thanks - March Silver reached my min target at 7.50 but not my ideal target at 7.70, at least not yet. His correction we're in now shouldn't go any deeper then 6.30. The rally could take the market back to a double top at 7.50 and a possibility of 7.70. This rally would then be followed by a decline which could go as low as 5.50 into the 62 month cycle lows ( Dan Ascani's cycle proj. ) due in late March early April. Gold would drop to it's recent lows at the same time. The S&P should have a sharp correction over the next 2-3 days ( Dow drop maybe 200 pts + ) then back straight up to 1100+ on the S&P. I now think the market will be at 9500+ by summer. If you have the stomach for it sell the Mar. S&P at 1043 or higher this morning.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 07:48 - ID#224363)
I'm sure it has been said before..
But watching the precious metals market over the last eight months has been a little like watching your car skid out of control on aren't sure exactly what is going to happen but you know that you are only marginally in control.

I think that until we see a very fundemental shift in the world economic/political situation ( especially the USA ) , there will be no growth in precious metals demand. Right now it only seems to be the hardcore goldbugs and traders that are following the market.

As for Mr. Buffet and Soros...they've done well in equities and currency...why wouldn't they take a chance on precious metals. After all, the prices can't go that much lower can they ??

(Thu Feb 19 1998 07:48 - ID#333131)
Donald, One for your side - consumer prices to fall in Brazil of all places.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 07:54 - ID#238295)
Eldorado: I'm inclined to agree with you that bullion will dip to the $290 area before launncing its next ascent. Gold stock weakness suggests a similar falloff by bullion in the near future. But once we start up again from $290, I expect we will get close to $320 before the next serious reaction.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 08:04 - ID#35767)
The gold stocks have been probably the worst indicator for the direction of bullion over the last two years. Weakness in shares is really bullish as it shows the crowd finally does not believe.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 08:09 - ID#33180)
Homestake news

(Thu Feb 19 1998 08:15 - ID#26793)
IMF adopts the Alfred E. Newman strategy.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 08:25 - ID#26793)
Morgan-Korean derivatives default now at $489 million "and growing"

(Thu Feb 19 1998 08:26 - ID#426220)

A fifth straight new Dow Industrials high. . .accompanied by
slightly less than that for the S&P futures, remains supportive of
psychology, if not price appreciation in many sectors, in this
ongoing market scenario, which very easily could culminate with a
reversal at or after a somewhat uninspiring February Expiration
later this week.

Remember we thought a reverse head & shoulder's bottom identified during the last couple months would run shorts, take this to where it is now; then, with numerous after-the-fact bullish confirmations, we'd set the stage for an important reversal. Fact is DJ's stretched, but of course this market would first pop-the-top-before-a-flop, because it could.

Gene Inger's complete report may be seen at following URL - you must delete the letters "en" in the word 'golden"

(Thu Feb 19 1998 08:35 - ID#42365)
Thats when you let go of the wheel and let it straighten itself out. Get in on tha lows and hang on.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 08:41 - ID#330175)
Not good news for USA............and eventually USD
Trade deficit up over 20 percent

(Thu Feb 19 1998 08:44 - ID#93232)
The blacken bird flies low
And warns the strangers below
That common lies and deceit abound
and yet his is the only sound
of the truth he has foretold
to those who quietly hold gold
and wait to know the why
the dumb others they soon die


(Thu Feb 19 1998 08:49 - ID#330175)
Trade Defficit(USA).............................................................mornin Studio.R
The Dec.Trade Deficit was 10.7 billion ( expecTED to be 'only' 9 billion ) a 24.3% increase~~~~~~~~~but what moi

(Thu Feb 19 1998 08:56 - ID#93232)
@Teddo...a morning to re...caw, top O'
Nourish the raven...he is my friend Ha! Caw! Hope aw is swell with you.

Mike Stewart
(Thu Feb 19 1998 08:58 - ID#270253)
Technical Update
The Toronto Gold Mining Summation Index has peaked, and it now declining. This is not a good sign. It peaked at +777 on Monday and has declined slightly for two days. This is not falling quickly and could reverse on a positive reversal in gold. Again, it is a warning. I am getting defensive in my outlook as a precaution.

The Toronto Mining issue New Lows have not expanded. In a bull market you expect to see more that 5 new lows at the bottom of corrections, and then they should dry up immediately. We had 7 new lows on Monday and Tuesday, but only 4 yesterday. So far..its healthy.

When I suspect a bottom is in for the Toronto Gold Index, I create a weekly chart with a trendline from the intraday low. It rises at 2% per week. This usually contains major moves upward. This week the trendline is at 5906.8 and the actual Toronto Gold Index is at 6338.56 as of yesterday. Again, so far it is fine.

So in summary, 2 of 3 are healthy, but I am in defensive mode for now.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 09:00 - ID#330175)
Studio.R...........and the vultures are circling me-----------------
Actually am in day THREE of da flu but it takes more than that ta keep a 'bad man'!!---arrrrggghhhh

(Thu Feb 19 1998 09:02 - ID#330175)
Trade Deficit largest in NINE years
But who gives a sh!!!

(Thu Feb 19 1998 09:05 - ID#330175)
Michael de Guzman(Bre-X chopper jumper) once tried to kill himself by drinkin a bottle of cough medi

(Thu Feb 19 1998 09:06 - ID#187218)
IMF Boss tries his SPIN on Koppel's Nightline....
"... TED KOPPEL How does it not cost a dime to the American people?

MICHEL CAMDESSUS Well, because we are working as a credit union. America deposits money in the fund. We lend it in the conditions I have just described with you with this strong conditionality and the money revolves there and we design our loan in such a way that they will be repaid by the prosperity created by this loan. So since 50 years we have not lost money... "


(Thu Feb 19 1998 09:06 - ID#93232)
@Teddo...hope you're getting over it...
The Vultures must now fly south to new york for the big frenzy...your meat they will not taste. ( I'm starting to sound like tolerant, eh? )

(Thu Feb 19 1998 09:27 - ID#344239)

(Thu Feb 19 1998 09:43 - ID#31868)
Death has no mercy in this land. HOT TUNA - at SweetWater -

Captain Haddock, Tintin and Curios George stand ready to defend the shore. We are formidable.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 09:44 - ID#330175)
EB(har har har)---yer team is doin as good as yer ISP(snicker-snicker)
*Go Gold* + 'Suns'... ( eh ) ~~~~~~~~P.S.Maybe ya should move ta 'The Cape' where da mail is always delivered$$$$

(Thu Feb 19 1998 09:48 - ID#57232)
E-Mail problems?
Aurator- I just got mine working -- sent you some SSpot graphs after sharefin told me I was able to post graphs again. Please let me know if the graphs got through.

Just my luck isn't it, I'm up and you're down! I wonder -- is that what Hell would be for a NetJunkie? E-mail that doesn't work when you want it to, and works when your not using it?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 09:50 - ID#316193)
$8 Billion Iraq Oil For Debt

(Thu Feb 19 1998 10:01 - ID#254269)
good morning all; @miles_A; if you would like to continue our conversation

re MG Magnettes, please email me at

(Thu Feb 19 1998 10:03 - ID#153102)
@JohnD @SDRer
I still think it would be useful to know if any NA mine operator besides Munk was let in on the plan to manage down the POG in London.
I'd also like to know what farfel said in his letter that stirred them up.
Be back another time.

Richard Burke
(Thu Feb 19 1998 10:05 - ID#411318)
Ken Roberts Books etc.
shadowvista: thank you for the two web sites with info on Roberts and his activities. If each of his subscribers averaged only $5000 in a trading account this brings $1.5B of additional liquidity to the market - for the big boys to suck up. Even after advertising and mailing costs his $60 million gross must have netted a nice figure. What a deal. I think I would be interested if he gave a course on the business of mail order investment advice. Again, thank you - I deep-sixed the brochure.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 10:06 - ID#57232)
The IMF must be broke
All: When Mexico needed 20 billion, we gave it without knowing that we gave it. The first 60 or so billion to SEAsia went without a sound. The CB's have an ingenious way of delivering dollars to any other Central bank, simply by loaning gold to buy dollars ( with interest gained ) . No one needs to know about these gold loans, as long as they are repaid. And, our federal debt secretly went up about 200 billion this year, despite having no deficit. So -- about 260 billion is probably SEAsia related.

Isn't it odd that now the IMF has to ask the American people for a trivial $18 billion? And now the Europeans are getting nervous about their SEAsian investments that went sour. I would have emergency meetins too -- if I were broke.

I would guess that what will happen next is that 'world government' guaranteed low interest or deferred interest loans will be offered to SEAsia when the dust settles, and everyone will be happy.

A few years from now the world will experience another inflationary crisis reminiscent of the one in the 70's.

Hope I'm wrong.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 10:09 - ID#410114)
Gold buy signal
The Canadian $ is skyrocking v. the US $!! The PMG are UP. The implication of this is that money is moving into Canada to do what? To buy Canadian $ denominated instruments. As Canada is primarily a resource economy, the money is mostly moving into the resource issues.

It takes a lot of money to move a currency...think about it.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 10:23 - ID#57232)
Derivative 'Swaps' -- is this 'paper' made from 'paper'?
Donald: Aurator one day alluded to the fact that gold derivatives trades could be complex with many intermediaries. I'm wondering that these derivatives swap lawsuits flying around in SEAsia may be uncollectable, simply because the trades that were set up involve too many parties. If so, right now the fingers must be pointing in all directions!

Am I right?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 10:40 - ID#153102)
@JTF @JohnD @SDRer
@JTF You may be wrong, but you may be right. There is no "world government" in the sky to borrow from. The only source of unlimited liquidity is the greenback. The question is why haven't AG and Rubin simply created more US debt ? The answer may be that they are at the official debt limit.

The IMF can't sell its gold because it has already loaned it. I wonder how many times the same gold has been loaned out by IMF ? Maybe that's the gold that can't be delivered on in London.

Hmmm. Unscrupulous, well armed people who are broke. Probably a robbery attempt about to take place somewhere in the world.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 10:40 - ID#420116)
to tolerant1 - Roth
Am going to open a Roth IRA in specialty-precious metals mutual funds.

Options: Lexington Goldfund, Midas, United Services World Gold etc.

What do you recommend? Thanks. . .

(Thu Feb 19 1998 10:45 - ID#197314)
Ken Roberts ?
Richard,I'm sure you wouldn't be deepsixing his offer if
you had put on his version of option insuranse plan in silver.
you would be smiling while you add up your profits.I realy
don't see what his net profit on the course has to do with
anything and as far as more people making the market liquid?
isn't that good for everybody?Sounds to me like somebody
lost their money and isn't willing to take personal responsabilty
I'm not saying I think the course is perfect but it is very
good place to start a education process,you ever have to buy
books and tuition for even 1 semester in col.?Trading Futures
is a very risky and costly enterprise to enter,every thing will
cost money from commisions to research etc,never mind the energy
it takes can be amazing at times,so I guess the point is it is NOT
for everyone but the reward is equal to the risk and there is more
people who lose money than make money so learning is key,I didn't
learn hardly anything from K.R. course that I couldn't find in the
library but it was motivating and got me started papertrading.
Oh well that's it for now I've been taking advantage of this sleepy
PM market today to perhaps show the other side of the coin and say
I think the 200 bucks I spent was well worth it just for the motivation.

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Thu Feb 19 1998 10:45 - ID#26395)
TO LGB & The Gloomy guy: A lot of effort goes into getting sponsors and providing them with advertising space here. It doesn't really make sense to post messages that may make reconsider their sponsorship, since they're the ones helping to ensure that our group will continue well into the future.

To Vronsky: Now that others are spending money on promotional messages here, it's seriously time to put a stop to your own personal advertising campaign. I'm not going to repeat this message twenty times like the last time. I know that you also READ the posts when you come.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 10:55 - ID#426220)

BBC Headlines:

Relevant Stories

30 Jan 98 | Business

New Japanese
finance minister

29 Jan 98 | Business
Japanese bribery
scandal claims new

27 Jan 98 | Business
Japanese Finance
Minister offers to quit

26 Jan 98 | Business
Arrests in Japan
bribes scandal

Internet Links

Japanese Ministry of

The BBC is not responsible
for the content of external
internet sites.

Summaries February 19, 1998

Thousands riot in

Japanese lawmaker
commits suicide over
financial scandal

From Sport
China told get tough
on drugs

Former POWs give
evidence to Japanese

Millions dead from
starvation says North
Korean defector

Taiwan bank 'cursed'

Australia concerned
about Indonesian
political collapse

Suharto replace
Central Bank governor

(Thu Feb 19 1998 11:08 - ID#57232)
'World Government' money source == Greenbacks
Mozel: I agree. I think congress already just secretly raised the debt limit again because that 200 billion pushed us over the top. Somehow they can now raise the debt limit without causing a fracas. Bill Buckler knows, and has debt info at his Privateeer web site. Lets hope that they don't raise the debt limit again.

Do you recall how it was done in the 70's? I don't think only the US government was left holding the bag that time.

No matter what happens, somebodies bank is going to get 'robbed', and inflation will follow a few years later when the debts finally default. This has heppened before -- summarized in one of G Soro's books -- can't remember which one.

Spud Master
(Thu Feb 19 1998 11:08 - ID#273112)
US Tresaury "Debt to the Penny" working again...

02/17/1998 $5,510,166,063,080.80
02/13/1998 $5,474,687,599,259.03

a cool $35.5 billion dollars extra debt in the last five days,
or about $7 billion more debt each day.

At this rate the supposed "Balanced" US Budget for 1998 will have
a deficit of $2.5 Trillion dollars!

Anyone have an explantion for the sudden $35 billion in new debt?

Col. Jack Spud Ripper

(Thu Feb 19 1998 11:15 - ID#153102)
There's not much point in robbing a bank that is broke. Think bigger. Think of somebody who has something worth taking.

Spud Master
(Thu Feb 19 1998 11:15 - ID#273112)
Good point...
JTF, do you know what the current borrowing limit is to the Federal Gov?


(Thu Feb 19 1998 11:16 - ID#7568)

I have a special place in my heart for physicists. When I dropped out of engineering school, for a while I worked as a research assistant for a solid state physics researcher at Brooklyn College in NYC. I have very fond memories of those days.

It is in this spirit that I give to you the following information, ( which by the way I have posted here several times in the past ) .

The federal government of the USA does its deficit accounting on a cash basis. When you or I pay in a dollar in taxes, irrespective of the label underwhich those taxes are collected ( capital gains, medicare, gasoline surcharge, social security, income ....etc. etc. or should we say ad nauseum, ad nauseum ) this money goes on one side of the ledger. When the federal government pays out money irrespective of where it goes ( social security benefits, medicare reimbursements, interest on the debt, congressional salaries, etc. etc. ) , this money goes on the other side of the ledger. At the end of the year if there is more on the income side than on the spending side we have a surplus, if there is more on the spending side we have a deficit. Last year we had a deficit of something like $20 billion although the exact figure escapes my memory.

The 'secret' ( oh my, another conspiracy uncovered by the ever vigilant ....... I'd better stop here ) deficit is an accounting entry which measures the money 'borrowed' from the governmental trust funds, of which social security is the largest. In other words, if US taxpayers pay in $100 dollars in taxes under the heading of Social Security, and only $50 dollars of those collected taxes are spent on Social Security, the remaining $50 will show up as being invested in US bonds. There are a special series of bonds which the government issues to the trust funds. These bonds, which represent excess money collected for the trust funds are counted in the total outstanding debt of the US. The secret $200 billion dollar increase in the debt is an increase in these bonds. When you see the 5.5 trillion or so national debt, it includes something like 1.7 trillion ( just guessing at the moment ) in paper held by the trust funds. These 'bonds' are not really bonds in the sense that the goverment has issued them to itself.

In advance of the incoming projectiles which will no doubt speak of how the government is being disengenuous because it makes the claim that social security is going to 'be there', I agree. Social Security will not be there for the baby boomers and their offspring in any way shape or form as it exists for the current recipients. It can not be, the demographics do not allow for it.

In closing, on a cash basis the USA is running at the moment a balanced budget. The 'secret' deficit is not being used to fund the Bilgeburger mandate, or anything else, because it does not exist.

As a good friend of mine used to say, in a deep scottish accent, when someone on our Ultimate team ( game played with a frisbee and no dogs ) did something particularly stupid, 'God gav ya a brain laddee, use it'.

Off to go see the fishes at the acquarium.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 11:19 - ID#254269)
@ Mozel; Ypu're not suggesting that the US might decide to "occupy" some oilfields, are you ?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 11:21 - ID#429245)
From the Washington Post article..
Berger said later he thought many Americans have "hard questions" that they want "to get out of their system" before concluding that there is no recourse available but war.

To me, this says it all. The US administration has assumed that there is an inevitable popular predisposition to waging war. War, for America, has been like a celebration of it's dominant world position. Berger seems to be saying that this will ultimately overcome any doubts.

Maybe this time war will be shouted down before it starts. That would be a great victory for America over itself.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 11:23 - ID#32078)
gold funds
IATOLU.. Those gold funds you mentioned are good, but you might check

to review other gold funds.

I like US Global World Gold for myself.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 11:32 - ID#254269)
@ GW, your 11.21. Re Berger's comments. Unfortunately, once the fighting starts, it is hard to
disagree with the program and to not support the troops and that is how the Administration can hold the American public to ransom and that is why you see the discrepancies in the polls. I feel for each and everyone of the servicemen in the Gulf and would support the troops totally. Unfortuantely, it is this administration that is the problem. Someone once sais that first "you should commit the country, THEN you commit the troops". Rightly or wrongly, the country is not committed on this deal yet.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 11:34 - ID#153102)
@Avalon Prince Abdullah
wants a higher price for his oil. Do they want to pay it ? Where are the gunmen going ? How desperate are the liars, cheats, and thieves ? Are they ready to say, "we're powerless because we are broke". When they have all those gunmen at their disposal ? They took the gold in 1933 and it was Clinton's idol, FDR, that did it. If they'll take gold, will they scruple at taking oil ?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 11:35 - ID#41229)
Where are getting the monetary figures from, do you have a link you could provide. Thanks

Also when placing an order, I always specified "a price or better" but on the stops, would not get filled at mark, always against. In pork bellies it always was extremely against. I have learned much in tradeing futures and continue to monitor, though not on the same level. I'm catching on to events happening in the news that drive comodities certian ways. Still on side lines trading options.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 11:40 - ID#254110)
What's WB up to?
I think WB knows exactly what hes doing. Some analysts smugly theorize that he was simply playing fast and loose with the silver market, just buying in, waiting for all the copy cats to follow along driving up the price, and then bailing out with a tidy profit in hand. My guess is, however, that there is a lot more going on than this.

I think its becoming obvious to just about everyone that the current stock market is as bloated as a bull in clover with a cork up his ass. Now that the smoke and mirrors of the Asian miracle has come crashing down it looks like it is setting off alarm bells loud enough to awaken a hibernating bear. The outlook for 1998 is bad news. How then, if you are the Oracle of Omaha do you protect your profits when billions of dollars are going to evaporate like a mirage on lake Bonniville. Only one obvious answer  Precious metals! Especially when there is a midnight madness sale in Ali Babbas cave with gold trading at only 60% of its intrinsic value and silver trading at only 20% of its intrinsic value!

The only real decision to be made is: will it be silver or gold? An intrinsic value of a precious object is one thing but what matters now is the cold hard facts of an open market. Gold is currently in over supply with many death wish nations dumping their reserves. No short term joy there. But silver is currently in under supply with most of the worlds reserve in a draw down mode. So silver is the most obvious safe harbor from the coming storm. Good move WB!

(Thu Feb 19 1998 11:44 - ID#228100)
US Debt
Just imagine answering every credit card solicitation that you receive. You could live like a King on that debt. As long as you keep paying the minimum payment, the credit companies will send you more and more and more......

iAtolU: I prefer the Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals fund ( see below ) . Not as aggressive as some, but a large fund with low overhead. New management. Invested primarily in North American companies. Low ( 1% ) redemption fee. Which ever one you choose, BE PATIENT. Stay in for at least a few years.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 11:52 - ID#22956)
Mr. not make haste...
I started to write a looooong post regarding the KR course and about those articles debunking him and then I trashed it all. The Ken Roberts course is a basic ( BASIC ) understanding of these vast and dog-eat-dog markets. He tries to introduce you to them ( for a mere $200 money back GUARANTEE ) . From there you are on your own and you are free to make your OWN decisions. KR does not come to your house with a gun to your head and make you call your broker and make you lose your money. He stresses that you should NOT be anywhere near these markets if you have NOT done proper homework and have NOT paper traded these markets and shown profit CONSISTENTLY. The authors of the articles debunking him have a right to print what they want.....some is true some is not.....THE DECISION IS YOURS....

I bought that course more than five years ago and I am thoroughly grateful to Ken Roberts and ALL his staff. They introduced me to commodity trading and I have taken it MANY steps further. I have recommended the course to countless others and I have NEVER received ONE complaint. True, their are thousands of training courses out there but I chose this one and my life has changed CONSIDERABLY for it. All can laugh and scoff at me or others but I will tell you accountant/tax man is a KR course member too....and for gooooood reasons. Yahoooooooooooo!!!!! Keep it simple!! Do your homework!!!! Your OWN not cheat ( in life either, karma will bite your ass!! ) is easy to debunk and call 20/20 hindsight peoples is another to get off yer ass and quit making excuses for this and that and do something with your life and be proactive and quit crying about everything that doesn't go your way.......I loath crybabies.......Ken teaches people to get off their asses!!! Much of it is NOT even about commodities but about yourself.

Now......Mr. Burke, go to the trash can and pull out the flyer and read it from cover to cover. Then either throw it away or make the call. Make your OWN choice.....but do not enter commod trading without doing ANY homework and without a game plan....unless you want to see YOUR money ending up in MY hands.

( btw Richard only the last paragraph was directed towards you )

and sorry Bart.....back to gold!!! send a box of Cubans to KR


(Thu Feb 19 1998 11:58 - ID#298259)
XAU...leading indicator?
Can anyone direct me to a place which lists the stocks which comprise the XAU. Also, on 2/13 spot POG was $299.85 and the XAU was at 76.71. Today spot POG is around $297.85 and the XAU is around 71.84. This represents a 6.35% decline in the XAU and a .67% decline in the POG. This can't be good news if the XAU is a leading indicator for the POG. Fidelity Select American Gold which closely mirrors the change in the XAU was down 5.06% during this same time frame as of 11am today ( which reflects XAU price around 10am ) . Certainly looks like we are headed lower.

Still Frustrated.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:01 - ID#220325)
APH: many thanks for the valuable forecasts
It was great of you to take the time to respond and I certainly appreciate it.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:01 - ID#22956)
light reading
about PM's.....

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:02 - ID#420116)
to: larry_A - gold funds
Thanks for URL

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:03 - ID#22956)
placer dome stuff
btw...the last URL had Placer Dome stuff, again, stuff that you probably know already..... ( duh ) .

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:04 - ID#258427)
TRY THIS:^XAU+ASA+ABX+BMG+ECO+HL+HM+NEM+PGU+PDG+GLD+TVX+^hui+aem+asa+bmg+cde+eco+fcx+glg+hl+hm+kgc+nem+wmc&detailed=f&options=t

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:10 - ID#298259)
Thanks for the speedy reply.

John Disney__A
(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:18 - ID#24135)
For mozel SdRer
Some numbers... 1st nine months 1997. Format ...
Mine , revenue mill$, gold production, mill oz, Gold price received$/oz

Battle Mountain , 257.9,0.639, 404
ABX , 969,2.2,440
RYO, 160.5 ( can ) ,0.284, 440??
Homestake, 498, 1.266, 393
Newmont, 1160, 2.832, 410

So it was really EASY to hedge at or above 400 in 1997
if your gold production was close to Washington, DC.
Homestake probably got a penalty for all their spanish
type latino gold rather than the real stuff from Nevada.
Hey -- is this subsidization of the US gold industry???
or is it??. ABX operating in the real world at the real
gold price is a dead duck. And their BRILLIANT hedge
program ... seems anybody can do it .. just fill in
government form HED 97..penna65000. The secretary will
type it up while you wait.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:22 - ID#20347)
XAU Stocks
PGU is NOT a part of the XAU. It's been replaced by GGC. The official list of XAU stocks can be seen at

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:24 - ID#197309)
Well said ( 11.52 post ) I held back a little and I'm glad
you came forward with a more poitive response than I.


Richard Burke
(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:26 - ID#411318)
Ken Roberts Again
EB: thanks to you too. Persuasive argument.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:27 - ID#420116)
Year2000 re: patients
Been hoarding Ag since the age of ten.
Am 47 now. Never sold.
Started on Au a couple months ago.

Began programming computers at the age of 19.
Working on Y2K now. Bummer. . .

Will be nice not to have to pay tax on the Roth PM funds.

Thanks for the info. . .

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:29 - ID#298259)
Thanks for the clarification, bookmarked your URL.

Kitco...what a great place for information.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:34 - ID#337186)
scotch and a splash of el nino
Flash flood warnings just came across the radio this morning, nothing new happens almost every day now. I thought it pretty cool when our electricty went out so did our well. Wanting to add water to my scotch I stuck my glass out the door for 2-3 seconds and presto scotch and el nino

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:35 - ID#243180)
Why make the Fund Manager rich when U can get the physicals and save fees ?

Richard Burke
(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:35 - ID#411318)
KR Again
jman - just picked up your note - thank you also.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:40 - ID#289357)
iAtolU @ PM funds

If you're considering load funds, I would suggest the following two as probable stars in a new bull market:

Lexington Strategic Silver STSLX

Lexington Strategic Investments STIVX

The investments in the former are obvious, and the latter is in South African Gold Mining Stocks, if you have the risk tolerance for them. In the 1993 runup, this one was about the very best.

John Disney__A
(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:41 - ID#24135)
Is le Carre writing this script ??
To all
Its like old books.. old movies.. Lawrence of Arabia..
England's fear of Arab Unity, Philby of Arabia telling
the Arabs never to trust England, Russia was their
friend. Iraq being armed by the US to fight against
the people that overthrew the Shah, then enticed into
Kuwait, then thumped BUT KEPT ALIVE, now here we go
again. And our ONLY ally, guess who, the BRITS of
course .. with bells on .. after all it was their
policy to begin with.
Another thought I had when playing with Newmont..
remember sir James and his argument with people in
London that wanted the price of gold down .. then
remember Eddy George with a gratuitous bad mouth of
gold one day that knocked a few bucks off...for "people
in London" read Bank of England.
All we need now is George Smiley.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:42 - ID#153102)
Bingo is right ! This has been most informing, but not very inspiring. There is North American subsidy for sure. I wonder if the Australians were let in on the deal. Oh, yes, the government there sold the 167 tons. But, what about the miners in Australia ? And the poor South African miners ? Vernon Jordan really looks out for his bro's, doesn't he ? Well, he feels their pain, I'm sure.

The run up in the debt, the gold loans, the gold subsidy by buying forward sales, the IMF crisis, and the Gulf crisis are all one tangle.

Haven't seen much of AG lately. Wonder if Arab blood on his hands will bother him ?

I would write this up if I thought anybody would publish it.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:46 - ID#340459)
Curbs are holding dives in DOW today, They have arrested 2 people who were going to release Chemical
agents in NY subway, FBI to make a statement soon...

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:47 - ID#289357)
John Disney @ CAM
John - Did you find out anything good about Consolidated African Mines?

If you posted earlier, I missed it - last comment I saw was that you were requesting an annual report via courier.

I looked in JSE quotes today, and it was trading at 132 - Is this 1.32 Rand? If NAV if 2.91 Rand, this is more than a 50% discount, and Mr. Kebble has a very good reputation, from what I hear.

Lurker 777
(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:48 - ID#317247)
appreciate everyone's input here at Kitco and lurk almost daily. Unfortunitly investing in the commodity market is volatile and you should presume you will have some loss of capital from time to time. If you sell lower than you buy you are a looser but if anyone has the audacity to infer their losses were a result of any of the fine posts here on kitco is a REAL LOOSER! Dont play with the BIG BOYS if your not willing to take BIG risk.

So far I have invested more in Gold than any other investment of my lifetime. I plan on purchasing more Gold if spot falls to $286. and this will represent more than 50% of my net worth. I am betting  of all my monetary worth that Gold will rise. If the trade goes south on me I have no one to blame but myself.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:48 - ID#340459)
Very interesting Post, thanks John Disney..

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:48 - ID#256254)
Date: Thu Feb 19 1998 12:04
BillD ( XAU STOX ) ID#258427:

So PGU remains part of the XAU. I would have thought it would have been dropped when it no longer traded in the U.S.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:51 - ID#368244)
Bema Gold

Bema is down almost 8% today with gold steady, does someone no of big problems here? This one is eating my lunch.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:52 - ID#258427)
On the url that I gave...pgu does not produce a quote ( obviously ) since they no longer exist....who replaced them??

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:54 - ID#153102)
re Chemical Agents
At least once in their lifetime every American should go to the lobby of Congress and fart.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:54 - ID#222231)
The Gold Wars
I apologise if this has been posted before. It seems some are still a little hazy as to "PAPER GOLD" and the URL posted at bottom is an excellent read.

With a hoard of 36,000 tonnes of gold held by the worlds banks and a yearly production of 2,400+/- tonnes, the price of gold has been effectfully controlled in a narrow range, in terms of the preferred currency ( dollar ) by the world banks.



The Trading Range 1994-96

With the exception of a short-lived sojourn above the $US
400 level in February 1996, the $US Gold price was "trapped
in amber" for three years, from the beginning of 1994 to the
end of 1996. For all but about a month of those three years it
was caught in an extraordinarily tight $US 20 trading range
between $US375 - 395. By late 1995, the volatility on the
Gold market had reached its lowest level since the late
1960s, when the Gold price was officially capped at $US 35
an ounce.

Consider what has happened during this three-year trading

A debt crisis in Mexico.

A debt crisis in the State of California.

A global bond market bloodbath - in 1994.

A trade war between the U.S. and Japan averted
at the last second.

A huge boom on the U.S. stock market - in

The U.S. Dollar plummeting to record lows
against the Yen and multi-year lows against the

Debt collapse and actual deflation in Japan.

The near-total dependence by the U.S. Treasury
on foreign buyers to buy newly-issued U.S.
government debt. Foreign Central Bank holdings
of U.S. Treasury debt expanded rapidly
throughout the period

A "balanced budget" debate in the U.S. which led
to two government shut downs in October 1995
and January 1996.

A $US 600 Billion increase ( to $US 5.5
TRILLION ) in the U.S. debt ceiling.

Even more interesting, this Gold "trading range" against the
U.S. Dollar has not been reflected in the Gold price of other
major currencies. The high and low spot Gold prices against
the world's three major currencies over the three year period
1994-96 were as follows

U.S. Dollar
$US 47
German Mark
DM 689
DM 528
DM 161

"Change" is the percentage difference between the high and low prices

Yes, the U.S. Dollar did some spectacular swoops and dives
against the other two currencies over these two years, but
that's not the point. The point is that the U.S. Dollar Gold
price stayed so stable, despite all these swoops and dives.

How was Gold kept in such a narrow trading range against
the Dollar? Through the use of the markets for "derivative"
paper instruments based on Gold; through unprecedented
"forward-selling" programs undertaken by Gold producers;
through "Gold leasing" undertaken by Central Banks. And, in
a pinch, by the actual sale of Gold by Central Banks.

In the U.S., the other main feature of this period, especially
in 1996, was a huge boom on the stock market, relentlessly
falling unemployment, and price increases in the economy
which slowed to a crawl and, in many cases, actually went
into reverse.

The Purpose of the "Trading Range"

There were actually several purposes served:

To encourage the attitude that Gold had lost its former
use as a "hedge" against price inflation and political and
economic crises. This was done very successfully. The
last time that Gold reacted to political events was the
lead up to the Gulf War way back in late 1990.

To encourage the attitude that ( price ) inflation was

To foster the attitude that all the financial crises of late
1994 to early 1996 were under control. After all, the Gold
price was not reacting to them.

To give added credence to the much-ballyhooed
( especially in the 1996 election campaign ) , claim that
U.S. debt was under control and that the U.S. was
smoothly working its way towards a balanced budget.

The most important purpose by far. To re-reinforce the
notion - still held by millions of people throughout
the world - that there was still a "link" between
Gold and the U.S. Dollar.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 12:59 - ID#258427)
"Biological Agents" story
arrested two men in Las Vegas
who officials believe were carrying
"biological agents," top FBI
sources told CNN.

The men, whose names were not
immediately released, are believed
to be U.S. citizens.

The two men were arrested late Wednesday, the FBI source said,
after "FBI agents were told the two men had biological agents."

No other details of the arrest were immediately disclosed.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:00 - ID#222231)
The Gold wars correction of URL

(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:11 - ID#298259)
A.Goose... and BillD...
See...TPher 12:22 post...PGU not in XAU.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:17 - ID#401460)
mozel (re Chemical Agents)

Your post - just to much! Sent me to the floor in laughter.

It is a shame we can't get into the White House as easy.


(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:17 - ID#256254)
Date: Thu Feb 19 1998 12:22
TPher ( XAU Stocks ) ID#20347:


(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:18 - ID#22956)
I'll beat the horse DEAD
In reference to liquidity in the markets and KR...and then no more ( I promise ) . I just heard something on the radio.... ( ohboy ) .

You can send KR 200 bucks and learn something and then send your 5000 to the markets ( making your own INFORMED decisions ) , OR ( this is what I heard ) you can send your 5000 to some radio ad campaign telling you that they can make you money in the VOLATILE ( and dangerous ) commodities markets ( whose money pays for the ads? ) . Who would you trust? You or them? Make the was easy for me. ohmy!

There are a thousand ways to skin that feline.... ( meow? ) . grind plastic and glass ( uhuh ) .


go gold~~~~~~~...

(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:19 - ID#153102)
@JohnD @SDRer
It was a mystery to me why the US was supporting the EURO until SDRer published something showing it at virtual parity with the greenback. Then, it hit me. The EURO is an Argentine currency board peso for a whole continent. Mass comercial colonization at one go. Much simpler than a country at a time.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:19 - ID#287207)
C$ Booming
Rob: There maybe a lot of money flowing into Canada at the moment and this may account for the rise in the C$ against the U$ but there are other reasons. First and contrary to the misinformation posted the Canadian is booming and showing little if any effect of the Asian flu ---yet. See this report:

As well after the horrific CNN world wide comedy show last night the US doesn't look too good this morning.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:22 - ID#340459)
Sand in the Hour Glass have starting to go fast for BC, Maybe only Saddam can save his ass now..
Bruce Lindsey and Tripp set up this game and BC got caught in this spider's web, He deserved it too...

(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:24 - ID#227290)
Isure & Bema

I don't think there's anything fundamentally wrong with BGO other than the low metals prices.

With gold and copper at current levels, the deposit has little value. ( And remember, copper has also fallen out of bed but looks to be making a stand for a possible rally. )

As time goes by, long-time holders get fed up with holding a stock going nowhere and dump it. That's probably all that's happening with BGO the past few days.

A runup in the gold price to $350 will send BGO soaring, IMO.

If you'll notice what's happening with Yamana today; it rose to C$2.25 now back to C$1.84, you'll see it's hard to keep investor's attention with tthe low metals prices. It's definitely a trader's market in the juniors and exploration stocks.

The Preacher

(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:24 - ID#153102)
Fart in an envelope pre-addressed to 1600 P. A. is an idea.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:24 - ID#288157)
JTF, on the Watch List...

1. We would do well to watch the ECU vis a vis the dollar. The plan was/is[?] to devalue the dollar behind the Wizards sheltering screen--that is ( 1 ) bring the dollar to parity with the ECU ( its almost there ) , before moving on to step two. So the ECU is a leading indicator, of sorts.

2. If youd like a look at the Power 50 list, you can find it at:

It is a helpful tool.

Mozel@Sharing.Thoughts Right On!

(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:26 - ID#256254)
The Clinton plans for move the American public fully behind HIS War plans falls on its nose in Ohio. Next day FBI comes up with group planning to use weapon of mass destruction in the U.S.

Quite convient if you ask this Goose. These are scary times.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:28 - ID#227290)
Midas & B. Lindsey

Your message is the second time I've seen it intimated that Bruce Lindsey helped set up Clinton. The first time I thought it was posted in jest. What's up? I'd love to see some evidence to this effect.

The Preacher

(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:31 - ID#288140)
You can't be serious. An envelope won't work. Fart in a jar.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:32 - ID#316193)
Link To National Debt Web Site

(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:36 - ID#153102)
Plastic liner. It was a product concept. Jar is good. Put a greenback in it, too, so they'll be sure to open it up.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:36 - ID#255284)
solar winds
Messages received. Many thanks. I am very intrigued by this.

no wonder I feel @home@kitco.

my friends call me windy.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:43 - ID#340459)
Go Gold Go.....Time for you to Shine now...DOW will go south for next few days..I hope that PM
Stocks rise..

(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:46 - ID#340459)
preacher, The Exec provilege is now sought to keep Bruce's trap shut, Bruce has likely
procured chicks for the Arkansas lad

(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:51 - ID#288157)
John [in real time]
Spot ( you will excuse the expression ) on! Thank you for bringing forward the Core Question, and being tenacious enough to see it through. Really GREAT!!!!

Mozel@chemical.agents Once I stop laughing, I will begin scheduling the Million Wind March on Washington!

All@Political.Resolutions.from.BaBa Walters will be interviewing the
future ambassador tonight. Expect we will hear about the caring mentoring
provided by WH. Hope I am wrong, but BaBa and Hill are close...

(Thu Feb 19 1998 13:57 - ID#225273)
Gottcha, Thanks. Now I see the tie between BL's testimony and the talk about executive privillege.

The Preacher

(Thu Feb 19 1998 14:04 - ID#28585)
...or is he the Lyndon Johnson?

Take your pick...he's one or the other.

Wishy-washy wishy washy wishy washy.

Prognosis for American dollar...very negative.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 14:05 - ID#286234)
You're on a roll. KUTGW

(Thu Feb 19 1998 14:08 - ID#201238)
Why didn't I make money?

There have been many comments on this forum wondering why their favorite low priced
( are they all? ! ) gold or silver stock did not go up when silver or gold did. I have thought
about it and would offer my opinion. A stock price is low for one of two reasons:

1. The company is on the way down.

2. The company is on the way up.

In case one, as well exemplified by most North American mining companies, the company
is over extended, pays way too much in salaries, has sold way too much stock, probably
told too many lies ( at least in their accounting ) and most of all, the management of the
company owns little or no stock and has no vested interest in the success of the
stockholder. Management simply jumps from one sinking ship to another ( I am here to
help you, my last employer is broke! ) Many of these companies are familiar to you but I
wont libel them here.

In case two, the company has a story that hasnt been told to a wide enough audience and
is in process of doing so. In these cases management has a strong vested interest with the
objective of building stockholder value ( and thus their own ) .

(Thu Feb 19 1998 14:10 - ID#228100)
Bruce Lindsey
Wasn't Bruce Lindsey the actor that played "Goober" on the Andy Griffith Show?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 14:11 - ID#57232)
Thanks for the Physics 'plug' -- I wish the real world were that simple.
D.A.: I appreciate your 11:16 post. I do not have your experience in financial matters, so I always read your posts carefully. As you do, I think, I do not believe 'a priori' in conspiracies. But, I do wonder where that mysterious $200 billion was added to our 'official' debt in the last six months, in the light of a near-zero deficit.

My problem is the following: Unfunded liabilities -- namely Social security, Railroad ( ? ) retirement funds, Medicare imbalances go off budget, I believe. I am no expert in this area, but I do know that the total 'offbudget' accumulated unfunded debt is about 15-20 trillion. Excess income from Social Security,etc has been used to pay for on-budget items, making our deficit less than it really is. But --- that will go away in 2010 when those of retirement age will then match or exceed those who are actively putting in money.

I have assumed a long time ago that social security is 'history', and that I will see none of it when I retire.

I have two more problems right now:

First, our 'official' debt went up $200 billion for no apparent reason, when our deficit was nearly zero. If we are talking about funded liabilities, why did that $200 billion not show up on the cash flow balance sheet? Printed money? That can show up on the 'official' balance sheet. The second problem is that there is about $1 trillion of debt lurking in the world right now, and I do not want the US government or the Federal Reserve to write a blank check with our name on it.

If Congress has found a way to move the debt ceiling up without a formal hearing and discussion, we could be in serious trouble.

That trouble will not be this year, or the next, even if our offical debt rises to over $6 trillion this year. But -- within a few years this will come to haunt us when the US economy weakens abit, and revenues drop. Then our 'official' debt load will become a consideration again. Also, since there is an inflationary trend ( your own opinion ) , interest rates will eventually go back up, and since our goveernment now has almost no long term debt, we could again be in trouble very quickly.

So there may not be a conspiracy -- but if we are to subsidize $1 trillion dollars of world-wide debt -- I think the Congress and public should know.

I think that debt like this should be shouldered by all developed countries of the world, not just the US. And -- I would like to know how Gramm-Rudman was circumvented, and how some small Congressional Committee can raise the debt ceiling without open hearings.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 14:17 - ID#298259)
Notice the volume traded for YRI - 1,205,277 shares as of 2:08. That is 3x's the amount traded during the Bre-X scandal. Some people must feel the recent strike has some merit. Or, on the negative side, some may be taking the opportunity to get out on the sharp rise. I'm holding on like I am with all my other gold stocks.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 14:17 - ID#335190)
Bruce Lindsey @ The Complete Clinton Calendar
May '96


In his Supreme Court brief asking for a delay in the sexual harassment suit filed against him, Clinton seeks protection under the Soldier and Sailor's Relief Act of 1940--which gives immunity against civil suits to active members of the armed forces--because he is commander in chief and, therefore, is on active duty. ( See 5/28/96. )>


Clinton meets with James Riady of the Lippo Group, who congratulates Clinton on his policy toward China, including his decision to separate China's trading privileges from human rights concerns, and urges Clinton to intensify his efforts in China. Bruce Lindsey and Mark Middleton also attend the meeting. ( See 10/16/96. )

(Thu Feb 19 1998 14:32 - ID#340459)
FBI has air sealed the Car /hazard measures as their 'primary concern' is community, Now can the
'smart' bombs destroy chemicals without any contamination in ME.
BC beware of four 'I''s this year.i.e

(Thu Feb 19 1998 14:34 - ID#42371)
Go Gold Go. Holding up well despite commodities drop.
Plus I bought some S & P 100 puts today- wish me luck fellow Kitcoers.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 14:38 - ID#340459)
Good Luck to you Vertigo...
Go Gold Go..

(Thu Feb 19 1998 14:41 - ID#225273)
Frustrated & YRI
Yes, indeed. The deposit has merit, we just don't know how much yet. This scout drilling was on virgin territory. So, once the drills have located a deposit, the odds increase dramatically that the next drill holes will also hit something meaningful.
In today's market, though, it's hard to keep the price up once it goes up. There are many profit takers.

Tomorrow the drill results should be out from Gold Canyon's drill program. I'm betting we'll see a good rise in those shares as well. The difference is that Gold Canyon has no money and YRI is cashed up very well.

The Preacher

(Thu Feb 19 1998 14:49 - ID#57232)
S. Spot data
Aurator: Glad you finally got the data. If you have any ideas how to analyze the raw data, I am all ears. I tried taking the first derivative of the S.Spot data to see correlations, but the data was 'noisy'. Easier to see the way I sent it to you. I just drew vertical lines through the regions with highest SS activity, and then evaluated market activity in the region of the vertical line +/- 6 months. I then compared this period with all other periods when SS activity was not rising 'to the max'. Not very sophisticated, but I have learned the hard way that statistical analysis should be as simple as possible.

If you are interested, I can send commodity price index data, but I unfortunately do not have cry0 data for more that about 45 years. Gold data is also interesting, but limited to after about 1975.

The monthly SS data goes back to 1750, but I do not have good monthly market data to match. Fred Crook thinks that Neutron flux is worth looking at, but I dont have more than 25 years worth. Neutron flux cycles also correlate with SS activity, and clearly would have an affect on human behavior.

Please let me know if you have any ideas. Best way is by e-mail so that I don't miss it.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 14:51 - ID#222231)
For all the brain washed and brain dead
WEBSTERS DICTIONARY - CONSPIRACY -Combination ( of persons ) for an evil purpose; a plot. Combination or union ( of person or things ) for a single purpose or end; Harmonius action. Law. An agreement, manifesting itself in words or DEEDS, by which two or more persons confederate to do an unlawful act, or to use unlawful means to do an act which is lawful.
A synomym for PLOT.

If anyone read, I posted earlier, how can you not see that the CB's conspired or plotted in UNISON? How can gold react during these times and circumstances of threat of war, Asia Crisis, Clinton scandels, ad nauseum and not rise? Because of thier plot or conspiracy to control the price of gold in a narrow trading range to continue the farce of the fiat money system. They have created the illusion of GOLD IS DEAD by thier concerted actions thereby affecting all goldbugs adversly.

How many more conspiracies are there out there? Do you not really believe this is happening today and will continue?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 14:52 - ID#359316)
I'll raise you.... Six Eyes of Doom
Iraq, Iran, IMF, Impeachment, Indonesia, Israel

(Thu Feb 19 1998 14:55 - ID#340459)
Trinovant, Thanks for your 6 pack Sir...Go Gold Go...

(Thu Feb 19 1998 14:57 - ID#254110)
Is it time to buy gold now?
I have all my eggs in a silver lined basket. But ultimately Im going to flip it all over to gold. I was getting anxious when the ratio dropped to 39.28 but I hoping that in the coming months the ratio will drop to 25. Thats when Ill change ships. What do you think? Am I on a ship of fools?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 14:59 - ID#57232)
Six I's
Trinovant, Midas: So the I's have it, right?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 15:00 - ID#340459)
If things dont fall in place for Rubin this weekend in London, then all plans will go haywire for
IMF's credibility i.e. Creditability. Indonesia is no longer keen on their Loan's.. expect Japanese arm's to be twisted by their exposure to US $..Times there are a changing...................

(Thu Feb 19 1998 15:04 - ID#344308)


re....richard burke & ken roberts.....

it is as eb says.........the seeds are in these courses....
ken roberts. the garden will be yours, the seeds from another...
tend it well.......the course planted the seeds of my current
successes.......and they grow with each day.

thanks is the truth....
think i'll buy 2 more 98 gold calls on that note...success that is.

you have to step-up to the plate, in order to hit a home run!
cherokee!; ) ..swinging-the-bat-of-life-and-truth---fatsimmmf!!

(Thu Feb 19 1998 15:05 - ID#340459)
Why are the Curbs deployed almost all day at NYSE.., The Bull run is over for some time. Go PM's and
PM stocks go..

(Thu Feb 19 1998 15:13 - ID#7568)

Please accept my appologies because I am a very poor teacher. I will try again.

Lets for a moment consider that it is day zero in the dawn of our new country and that there are no government bonds of any sort in existance.
Or in more familiar jargon Bonds ( 0 ) = 0. Over the next year the government collects $100 in taxes, half of which come under the heading of Social Security taxes. Lets assume that no Social Security payments go out, and that general expenditures are exactly $100. At the end of year one we are going to have Bonds ( 1 ) = 50 and Deficit ( 1 ) = 0. The bonds are 'issued' as a bookkeeping entry and just denote the fact that money came in excess of what was spent on Social Security. If there was a Kitco back in 1776 then we would be having discussions about the secret deficit because government debt was $50 even though we had a balanced budget.

If you meander over to the treasuries web site you will find a sheet which breaks down the current debt into its various components. Here you will find that about 1/3 of our outstanding 'debt' is not actually outstanding but held by the government.

I hope this clears things up a bit.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 15:21 - ID#287277)
Occidental News from an Oriental view..SCMP, 2/19/98
Germany-- Asian crisis rocks Deutsche Bank
Germany's largest banking group, Deutsche Bank, yesterday revealed it had been hit by the full impact of the Asian financial crisis, reporting net profits last year had plummeted 56.5 per cent to 956 million deutschemarks ( about HK$4.05 billion ) , from 2.2 billion marks.

Daley voices support for JP Morgan claim
US Commerce Secretary William Daley urged South Korean companies to honour their contracts amid a escalating dispute over derivatives between
JP Morgan & Co and Korean firms.

Howard under attack for stance on crisis
Prime Minister John Howard's Government is worsening the impact of Asia's economic crisis on Australia by failing to understand its complexities,
Opposition leader Kim Beazley says.

US plea to stop trade tension
The United States ambassador in Canberra has urged the United States and Australia to work harder to stop trade rows from worsening.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 15:24 - ID#252127)
Pete; your 12:54 and 13:00 provide excellent info

The tight range of the gold price in conjunction with some of the events that occured during that time indicate ( to me ) that governments have a group of experts whose job it is to go into the commodity/derivatives markets whenever the PM's are endangering their paper empires.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 15:29 - ID#222231)
IMHO, silver is a better play than gold. Siver is not controlled the way gold is because they have no huge holdings with which to use as a manipulation of price the way they do gold. Read my earlier posts which reinforces my opinion that gold is not going anywhere in the near future. Silver will!

(Thu Feb 19 1998 15:32 - ID#252127)

Farting in the Halls of Congress is not enough to change the ambient stench of bullshit.
The best way to get rid of roaches is to call the Orkin Man, but Raid would be the cheaper way to go and may have a lesser impact on the newly balanced budget.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 15:33 - ID#222231)
Thank you for reading my posts. I believe many touting gold under those conditions are in for a rude awakening.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 15:37 - ID#287277)
FT--Russia admits it took out 'discreet' loans
Chrystia Freeland in Moscow
"The Russian government discreetly borrowed $950m from western banks late last year at a time when pressure on the rouble and a Kremlin promise to pay off wage arrears severely strained the country's public finances.
The finance ministry said the government had taken out some SHORT-TERM loans from western commercial banks in late November and early December but said the total amount was "much lower than $950m".

However, someone familiar with the government's borrowing said that in late November and early December Russia had borrowed $700 in short-term loans from western commercial banks. They said that over the same period Moscow had borrowed an additional $250m in a "split-option" facility, a loan that can be repaid at any time.

The loans will need to be refinanced in the first, second and fourth quarters of this year."

(Thu Feb 19 1998 15:43 - ID#57232)
The missing 200 billion - Does David Copperfield consult with the Government?
D.A.: I apologize for missing your answer in your 1:16 missive. If I understand your answer, there was an excess 200 billion paid to Social Security -- more than necessary to keep the program going. So that excess cash was reported as a 'deficit' in the form of 200 billion dollars, and presumably transferred to the unfunded accounts. I find that kind of bookkeeping mind boggling, especially when BC said that our 'surplus' would go into our Social Security account. Our surplus became a liability. Would have been much simpler to have a separate account for Social Security, with separate balance sheets.

What really worries me about what you said is that I do not recall the US government doing this before with Social Security. What about those 70 or so years we have had Social Security? Have we done this every time more Social Security funds came in than went out? I don't think so, because then our official debt would be much greater. Why haven't we done the same thing with the Railroad workers retirement accounts, and Medicare? If we had, if I understand currectly, there would be no unfunded liability and our funded liability would be about $20-25 trillion.

Out of curiousity, if AG expands the money supply, would that show up in the funded or unfunded accounts? I know AG has ways to 'monetize' the debt by adding to our official debt load, but I do not know how it is done in practice. And -- he has other methods to expand the money supply. How about $1 trillion dollars worth?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 15:49 - ID#254110)
Thanks Pete
Do'nt change to gold ever? Surly gold will rebound to the $500cdn mark when this bull has run out of steam and people dive for cover!

(Thu Feb 19 1998 15:50 - ID#28585)
...of gold short sellers getting sucked into put positions on gold.

Tomorrow promises to be "the Ultimate."

I can't wait...I just can't wait!!

(Thu Feb 19 1998 15:53 - ID#31868)
An understatement.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 15:54 - ID#228100)
Federal Debt - It is too large, BUT:
Remember that government accounting is fundamentally different in another way: Absolutely nothing is capitalized or depreciated. This makes the current balance of payments look worse.

Some "shooting star" companies, like America On Line, even capitalize marketing costs so that their current year's balance sheet will look better.

All federal costs are expensed. The construction costs for a new $250m office building are charged against the budget while it is built, even though it will be used over the next 30 years.
The value of some expenditures, like student loans and Pell grants, will also pay off over very long periods of time.
If these long-term assets were reconciled with the long-term debt, the numbers wouldn't seem so bad.

Also, if you compare the US ratio of debt to GNP, a measure of production ( versus assets ) , we're not as bad off as most other countries.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 15:55 - ID#28585)
It augurs some amazing leaps ahead.

WB Annual Meeting just around the corner...

I can't wait...I just can't wait!

Heavy Hitter
(Thu Feb 19 1998 16:08 - ID#403159)
Whats all the excitement? Just curious.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 16:10 - ID#254269)
Bacterial plot uncovered.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 16:13 - ID#237299)
Unfortunately, my own take of the situation, brings me to the same conclusion; we're screwed. Gold *may* not go anywhere. The Cbs ( orchestrated though the BIS ) have successfully managed to force a trading range channel in gold.

I'm hoping like most here that I perceive wrong, ( I want my holdings of gold to appreciate as much as anyone ) ( I *really* want it to go up ) , but with gold managed, and the Asian fix available through un-limited credit from the dollar, ( see the last BIS annual report: they pre-calculated this already and had a threefold response of accepting debt repudiation, loss spreading, and injected credit ) - the only fly in the soup is stopping the Arabs from re-assigning the reserve currency of choice. If they have accumulated so much gold, the rial or some synthetic cartel currency could be set as the only means accepted for *their* product. Turn the tables; O.K. yaaankee.. buy our currency at our exchange rate to purchase our product. I think Iraq is being used as an example. ( Also to make a statement to recalcitrant Asian countries. )

The Asian currencies were being *forward held in reserve* by the dollar; it was a position of trust, and we screwed them. They were wined and dined, and told rosy stories of how we'd love them forever, just sign here, go build your buildings, this will be great, have a cigar.
Then we pulled the plug. And now we have the audacity to come back, through the IMF and say
silly children, let *us* manage your economies. I don't think this plays well over there and I doubt the lesson is lost on the oil states.

Anyway, the Cbs have gold under watch, Asia *maybe*, and now want to telegraph, in no uncertain terms, a message to Riyadh. I'm not sure how it can fail. Mozel, I'd be interested in how you think it can go south. Even a military embarrassment leaves the dollar in control.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 16:14 - ID#57232)
Just saw your 15:13
D.A. Our posts passed in the Aether. I think my last post got it right -- that the budget is balanced -- but 200 billion was added to the deficit as a bookkeeping move to cover the 200 billion transferred to Social Security. Sort of like electrons and holes in a solid state conductor. I have seen bookkeeping entries like this in other situations before, and it drives me nuts! I guess that is to guarantee CPA's a place of employment. Now you need two books to figure out what is happening.

I think my question still stands. Just what changes when AG expands our money supply by $1 trillion? What do we look for? My guess is that the official debt goes up $1 trillion, but I do not know if the budget remains balanced or not. The Federal budget might remain balanced, as expansion of the money supply would not be reflected in tax receipts, or payments.

By the way, where did all that massive expansion of the money go this year? I think it was a 10% growth.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 16:14 - ID#284246)
RE: CC post wed feb 18 1998/ 13:32
Ta very much, CC.

I'll watch with interest and hopefully learn something!

(Thu Feb 19 1998 16:15 - ID#254269)
Dow closed at 8376 (down 75 points or 0.89%), S & P 500 closed at 1028 (down 3.8 points), 3o yr.

bond at 5.846%. Volume on NYSE at 585 million shares. NASDAQ volume at 746 million shares.

The Hatt
(Thu Feb 19 1998 16:19 - ID#294232)
Farfel I have to agree with you!!!!!!!!!
The breakout on Gold this time will see it cross the $310.00 mark very quickly. Lets hope it starts in Asia tonight!

(Thu Feb 19 1998 16:20 - ID#424187)
Poster who holds TSE -BAN PLATINUM

Our dreams are about to come true.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 16:22 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.03

(Thu Feb 19 1998 16:23 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .242

(Thu Feb 19 1998 16:25 - ID#373403)
I don't get it. Gold goes down for the past few days, FSAGX and FDPMX go down. Gold goes up today and they still go down.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 16:26 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 44.01

(Thu Feb 19 1998 16:32 - ID#57232)
Solar Stuff
aurator: A missprint -- the time of interest is not maximum SS activity, but the maximum rise ( underline rise ) in SS activity. Sorry for the confusion.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 16:37 - ID#288399)
Biological weapons plot/Goose's comment
Goose, had similar thought on FBI "coincidentally" discovering anthrax plot less than 24 hours after Clinton's "town meeting" sales job failed. If our propagandistas can't sell us directly into getting SH, they may attempt to create free-floating anxiety which they later direct back to Iraq. Maybe this plot will turn out to be another Richard Jewel deal, maybe not...but the timing was perfect, and, it gets Monica off the front page, too.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 16:41 - ID#423293)
Thinking Points About WB
While we are waiting for the latest COMEX stockpile numbers here are a couple of points to contemplate.

I have noticed the decline in the COMEX drawdowns to a rate which will not meet Mr. Buffet's contractual requirements for delivery of another 40 million ounces ( roughly 2-3 mil oz/day ) . This leads me to wonder whether some of that silver that is now flooding into London is being redirected to WB.

Which leads me to my second thinking point: He originally wanted 200 million oz not the measily 120 or so that he got... Any backwash from India etc could be easily absorbed by Mr Buffet topping up to his original objective.

Point three: ( essentially repeating something D.A. originally noted ) God forbid he allocate a whole THREE percent of his portfolio to silver instead of the modest TWO percent. ( Leaving aside any fellow travelers such as the Tiger Fund or Soros, etc., etc... )


(Thu Feb 19 1998 16:44 - ID#410114)
What do you base your comment on? Silver?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 16:46 - ID#252150)
Frustrated--re:YRI, it's called distribution.

Isure--I was lucky enough to buy BGO @ 5.50 & sell it @ 13.25.
I heard Johnson the CEO on a conference call & he sounded evasive to me, so I said so on S.I. & was harassed by the cheerleaders. Refugio needs at least 400 POG to be profitable. As for the jv with PDG, I doubt that it will even get started within the next 3 years.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 16:51 - ID#252150)
Barton Biggs was on CNBC & is very negative on Japan.
He thinks that their stimulus pkg will be inadequate & the NIK will go to 14,500 & the JY to 135. If he's right--not good news for POG.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 16:52 - ID#252127)

Is it true that Hillary picked most of the women members of Bubba's Cabinet? Can you blame her?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 16:53 - ID#57232)
Depreciation not included
Year2000: Appreciate your 15:54. I too have noticed this, but I am not a financial type, so I don't have a clue how much better the US debt looks after adding depreciation. Also, other countries have unfunded liabilities. A study by the Economist put the US in a very favorable light relative to Germany and France. Perhaps all that means that they will have their crisis before we do.

Unfortunately, my intuitive guess is that even with depreciation, the US federal debt is going up steadily. Interest payments must be made. And, eventually we will have a fiscal crisis where interest payments crowd out all other payments. Do to our economic cycle, that usually occurs during recessions when we are least able to pay. Since nothing is being done to reduce the Federal debt, eventually we will have our crisis. I just don't want to make it years earlier by adding another trillion of debt to the pot. Good to have that gold as security.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 17:03 - ID#372344)
@ Heard on the Street....Iraq...WPT...US$...Gold....truth...Russia
The War Preparation Team was hit the pavement again today this
time in NC Univ. Albright, ( staged event this time ) again confirming my beliefs posted here previously that "This is a very important time for the role of the US as the only Superpower, we cannot afford to turn inward to isolationism, we must show leadership" ( or US$ looses sole reserve currency status? ) .....
Some one said the first casualty of war is truth, these two charged today
with making Bio-Chem weapons by the FBI, how convinient ,reminds me of that "crying"Kuwaiti girl who in tears told congress how she saw Iraqi soldiers rip babies out of their incubators in a hospital to steal the equipment, as you all remember, she in fact was lying and the daughter
of a prince of Kuwait.....
Today I would add that the second casualty of war is confidence or "trust" in Government colorfully exhibited at yesterday's Ohio Town Hall Debacle, I posted in December of how I believed we would have a
replay of the 70's really how similar this is turning out to be, what with the
Media after Nixon ( BJ ) , Watergate ( Monicagate ) ,Viet Nam ( Iraq? ) ,
Also Media after Carter, Iran Hostages, failed military rescue,
of course Carter only lusted in his mind so NO monicagate....
In my view we are now starting to see the demunition of confidence
in Governments perhaps throughout the West, which will inevitably
lead to loss of confidence in the US$.... Paul Martin called for review
the world's monetary system....Gold acted rather well again today up $1.30, I noticed a closer association with the slight decline in the US$, even as we appear to be closer to Bombing Iraq....
I see that our friend? Camdessus was in Russia today,
and apparrently extended for 1 year payments on IMF debt owed,
but as you can read from the url, Russia will be loking for much more $....
I noticed that some in Taiwan are calling for a dialogue with China,
Gee this comes right after a Taiwanese plane carrying high
banking officials of BOT"crashes?" or was it shot down?.....
Is the Iraq "thing" a message to China as well?......North Korean
2nd front ( backed of course by China ) has really not been discussed much lately, but IMHV a possible scenerio, if US engages Iraq......

stay tuned....

(Thu Feb 19 1998 17:08 - ID#41229)
By your post of CB minipulating gold prices, should not we gold bugs start a class action suit out against CB's. We could have restatution for the physical loss of capital and mental anguish attributed to said losses. Why------- Gloomy Gus could be our poster child. {:+ )

(Thu Feb 19 1998 17:11 - ID#222231)
I for one want gold to go up also. It seems we have been denying the power of CB's to control price. I thought that gold was going to rise,until the price did not rise during crisises that would have normally make gold soar, did not happen. In fact the price fell. This is contrary to all logic until you see the big picture.

The pieces are beginning to fit. If as ANOTHER says that oil is partly going to be priced in gold, thier ( Fiat currency advocates ) whole house of cards are going to fall. They can not and will not allow this to happen. I could not see any rational reason to bomb the hell out of Iraq under the pretext of biological weapons. It would have sufficed if they told Saddam, you use those weapons anytime anywhere and you will be vaporized. Did'nt we use a policy called MAD against Russia? I stated before that attacking Iraq will be the final unifying force for the Arabs ( Muslims ) to wage an expanded war in that area ( and is'nt that thier intention? ) I hope to God it does not occur, for all the children and innocents in the world, your loved ones, mine and others, will suffer immeasurably in the name of greed.

I have been vilified by many on this forum because I believe that the elite are conspiring to own the WHOLE WORLD. They have to be blind not to recognize the forces that are at work. This coming war is being planned as thier final coupe to world domination.

War in the ME is a certainty if the oil interests push for gold or any other applicable currency in demanded for payment.

I will pray that I am wrong in my conclusions.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 17:24 - ID#222231)
Very funny?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 17:41 - ID#254269)
Mark Mobius recommends Asian Money Board
Today's WSJ ( 2/19 ) , has an an editorial op-ed piece by Mobius, the head of emerging markets at Templeton Asset Managemeent.

The article is titled "Asia Needs a Single Currency".
Quote, " The Asian Money Board's sole task would be to issue units of the new currency and maintain equal amounts of GOLD in their accounts with Asian custodial banks."

(Thu Feb 19 1998 17:45 - ID#41229)
It was ment as a joke. I have found that humour can lighten times of peril. The next couple of years I truely believe the world will go through a massive change, will not be fun. One needs to prepare, but if one constantly dwells on negative issues, they themselves become negative.

No reflection on you, its on me.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 17:51 - ID#30116)
A. Goose, BillD
The XAU index now has Getchell gold ( GGO ) in place of Pegasus Gold.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 17:53 - ID#30116)
XAU Info
Let's see if this URL works....

(Thu Feb 19 1998 18:02 - ID#210114)
Thanx for your reply re: gold exchange standard. Always happy to swap information.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 18:05 - ID#57232)
SI Gold Price thread and ANOTHER
All: Thought you all might like to know that the SI Gold Price thread is posting Kitco URL's about ANOTHER. Some of these posts are as analytical as ours. Interestingly they are as fascinated as we are, and are not sure what to think.
One comment was interesting. One of the posters said that Saudi Arabia was not anywhere as wealthy as one might think. My personal experience is that little of the wealth of the Saudi princes has filtered down to the people. That is a major destabilizing force, expecially if the Saudi's really are not that well off. That would explain the Saudi ideologic shift from openly supporting the US, to a neutral stance, in response to increased threats of terrorism.
As I recall, they still have not paid for those Boeing Aircraft, or for what they were expected to pay the US for the Gulf War. Perhaps there is a reason for ANOTHER's persistence on Kitco, after all! How would a Saudi Gold bug who desperately wanted gold to go up sound!

(Thu Feb 19 1998 18:06 - ID#210114)
The myth I was exploding was the idea that a currency backed by a gold standard is redeeemable in the metal. It is not and it never has been. The government in question would tell you to 'stuff off'. Example the US made it illegal to hold gold during the '33 - '71 period while it was on a gold exchange standard.

As far as the OZ FIN REVIEW goes, it could hardly be called a government controlled paper. The ridiculous notion that there is a conspiracy between the government and the Reserve Bank of OZ and the FIN Review is laughable.

Gold is no longer the financial instrument it was. It is now more of a commodity.


(Thu Feb 19 1998 18:07 - ID#288295)


(Thu Feb 19 1998 18:10 - ID#284246)
COMEX Silver inventories

Can someone post the URL of the site that publishes the daily ( ? ) inventory figures for COMEX silver stocks.

Thanks a lot.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 18:11 - ID#372180)
Adv/Dec Line
Anybody know of a free site that would produce graphs of adv/dec lines ( preferably with the indexes, but can be without )

(Thu Feb 19 1998 18:12 - ID#28593)
Obsidian: You sound a little, if I may, a few words:

Your thoughtful analysis has one flaw: it is completely west in orientation! If you care to recall several years of news stories--where were all eyes focused? from whence new markets? what was the vortex of growth? The west?

We tend to forget the East, believing that POWER is a synonym for the WEST. Fiat currencies are the outward representation of a broken western system, not the sum total of human yearnings. The sum total is East and West. I would suggest to you that China was ( and is ) well aware of the Western Grand Plan and has a plan or two of her own.

In the West, we say, its not over until the fat lady sings.. In China the idiom, sai weng shi ma ( the old man near the border who lost his horse ) and is about misfortune turning into fortune, ( and vice versa ) .

BIS is the West, fiat currencies and the old world. We are--I think-- watching the first battles to secure a place at the table ( and above the salt ) for the East.

It is too simplistic and more than a little dangerous, to believe that the West holds not only the winning hand, but the deck of cards.

And, the East has a deep and irrevocable commitment to gold. China had the worlds first paper money...been there, done that....they will not accept ( Asia ) any currency that does have a standard of value.
Jin is Tonic!

Re: our gold holdings/investments/commitments: at the risk of sounding like Another, our gold may save us Because it doesnt move!

And ME currencies--quite interesting, while oil is indeed priced in dollars, the oil states currencies are officially PEGGED to the SDR, which is--of course--a basket of currencies. ( They were much more open about this before 1997; then the lid of the briefing box was firmly closed...but if you care to ramble around in the IMF website, youll see that three currencies are OFFICIALLY pegged to the SDR ) .

So cheer up. I make the odds 60/40 for a solution we can all live with--and prosper. ( May go through a storm to get there though {:- )

(Thu Feb 19 1998 18:14 - ID#288295)

you can get COMEX inventories at

but there is a time delay for free access to this info. I suppose subscribers get it in real time.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 18:16 - ID#222231)
I am not toally negative. Pretty close though. Last nite me and my buddy went fishing. The weather has been very unusual for this time of the year in the western basin of Lake Erie. We have a spot in a little cove where we fish from shore in Marblehead, Ohio. We caught 12 Walleye, approximately 70#'s, anywhere from 4#'s to 10#'s in 3 hrs. The Walleye come near shore to feed on shad and minnows. We used countdown rappellas.

I really could'nt feel happier. Was better than sex or 1 tonne of gold.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 18:18 - ID#210235)
@Clinton legal defense fund
Get your quarters out and tape them inside the jar lids.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 18:25 - ID#344239)

(Thu Feb 19 1998 18:29 - ID#298259)
Aren't you a breath of fresh air. My understanding was that distribution occurs when volume rises and the stock price falls...not the case with YRI.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 18:35 - ID#237299)
Well, there are several here that think that CB loans are active
in keeping gold down. So you have company on this one. Now I know that BIS has been discussed not long
ago, but look at it again with your "conspiracy eyes".

Art. 4. ( 1 ) The authorised capital of the Bank shall be one thousand five hundred million gold francs, equivalent to 435,483,870.96 grammes fine gold......."

That was the original capital, as set forth in the statutes,

Now in the articles is a purpose statement:

"......Art. 21. The Board shall determine the nature of the operations to be undertaken by the Bank.
The Bank may in particular:
a. buy and sell gold coin or bullion for its own account or for the account of central banks;
b. hold gold for its own account under earmark in central banks;
c. accept the custody of gold for the account of central banks;
d. make advances to or borrow from central banks against gold, bills of exchange and other
short- term obligations of prime liquidity or other approved securities;....." etc etc

Now, none of this, taken in the context of 1930 seems out of place. Gold was the medium then. And they make it a point to say that even though *all* their statements *still* list everthing in value of gold francs, that this is just an accounting meathod that the've grown used to, and it has nothing to do with reality; they really measure everthing in dolars. Really?

The current capital base is this:

"......The authorised share capital of the Bank is 1,500 million gold francs, divided into 600,000 shares of equal nominal value ( 2,500 gold francs per share ) . At the close of the financial year 517,125 shares were in issue and, in accordance with Article 7 of the Statutes of the BIS, they are paid up to the extent of 25% of their nominal value ( 625 gold francs per share ) . The amount of the paid-up capital appearing in the Balance Sheet of the BIS at 31st March 1997 thus stands
at 323.2 million gold francs....." ( my underlining )

That's close to 3,000 tonnes, at 25% paid up. I wonder if the CB sales last year made their way to the BIS? Perhaps to finish paying their "dues".

Of the eleven contries represented in the board, two votes from the US. Greenspan, and W.J. McDnough. McDonough is the president of the New York district
Federal Reserve bank. The New York district was originally chartered as having Veto power over any dicision handed down by
the governors. He is arguably far more powerful than Greenspan. I wonder if a similar Veto power exists in the BIS. for thought, you run with it if you want.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 18:40 - ID#298259)
CNBC...Spot Gold at $798
Wish this one was true. CNBC has spot gold at $798 up $499.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 18:43 - ID#41229)
Has anyone heard any news on Chesbar Resources, was up 20% today.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 18:45 - ID#237299)
@SDR Nawh, not dispirited, just terminal cynicism setting in.
Thanks for reminding me to reopen Lao Tsu...

"the sage watches the ten thousand things rise and fall...
and thus remains safe.
He lets go of this,
and chooses that..."

Mr. Mick
(Thu Feb 19 1998 18:45 - ID#345321)
All: Whats the latest scoop on Platinum?
When is it going to go over $400?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 18:50 - ID#57232)
Logging off -- East no longer just following Western financial methods
SDRer: Looks like the East is starting to move to their own currency, and the Westerners are in a bit of a panic. I agree with you that the East will have a currency backed by gold fairly soon, forcing the Westerners to reevaluate their 'fiat' currencies. Actually, I am pleased that something like this is happening, because if the East continued to place their bets on a 'fiat' currency, this world would very soon not be a fit place to live in.

Any comments about my earlier concerns - mostly to D.A. -- I may have overposted to him a bit -- about whether those paniced Westerners might cover all of those bad SEAsian debts with US dollars? What specifically worries me is that the US debt ceiling can now be raised without public disclosure. What if all of a sudden we wake up one day, and find that our official debt is 6 trillion dollars, instead of the current 5 trillion?

Could happen if the West is sufficiently panicked. I personally think the US should not be bailing out all of the angry creditors, without any input from the rest of the world's banks.

Thanks -- always enjoy your posts ---

(Thu Feb 19 1998 18:53 - ID#237299)
Silverbaron: I can't get your Fed Res article to come up.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 19:01 - ID#20137)
Date: Thu Feb 19 1998 17:53
panda ( XAU Info ) ID#30116:


(Thu Feb 19 1998 19:02 - ID#288295)

Obsidian: I tried it twice & it worked on my system.

3-cubed: Yep! I read 'Creature from Jekyl's Island' it a year or so ago; I guess I probably outght to give it a whirl again, in view of today's ongoing currency nightmare....

(Thu Feb 19 1998 19:05 - ID#237299)
Silverbaron, I guess my ISP has bad DNS updates. oh well.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 19:09 - ID#31868)
Anyone have any info on the subway story in NY?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 19:14 - ID#288295)

Sorry - I have no idea what a DNS update is, but so far haven't suffered much for the lack of this knowledge.

If you can't read the article, just keep this word in the back of your mind, when you think of the gold/oil/greenback story....


(Thu Feb 19 1998 19:19 - ID#222231)
No I do'nt mean ever. Gold has not reacted as it should in a crisis. I think I mean expect a range of $300/oz to $400/oz and forget much higher prices in the near future with instruments such as dirivatives, forward sales ( paper gold ) being used. Until these instruments fail, I do not believe there will be $600/oz gold sales.

If every gold mine sold thier gold forward with an annual production of 2,400+/- tonnes/yr and defaulted in repayment or delivery ( highly unlikely ) , and 36,000 tonnes working in concert as backup, I'm afraid gold will trade in a controlled range. This system has been working for a bit. We can only hope to see thier demise, the sooner the better.

As for silver, this is one commodity they can not maneuver. They have no gigantic stockpiles and consumption has outpaced production for many years. Would WB purchase over 1 mil oz, ship it to England, resmelt it and pay storage for a short term play? I think not. He is an insider who knows what is going down with silver. Merril Lynch and others are trying thier best to downplay silver. Do'nt let them fool you. WB has no intention of unloading his cache for some yrs. I believe he knows that even a short term fall would not affect his position. He's not leveraged and has no illiquitity reason to dump. IMHO Silver has far greater upside potential presently than gold until the above conditions reverse.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 19:25 - ID#288295)

You mean the anthrax thing?

Article is ( now ) first in the chain ( 7:05, I think )

(Thu Feb 19 1998 19:28 - ID#288295)

7:19, actually.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 19:29 - ID#348127)

Does anyone know of any other similar chat rooms. I love this one and the opinions expressed here, but there is no way that I am gonna pay 100 bucks to talk to yall.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 19:35 - ID#393224)
Aussie gold shares down 1%+ this a.m.. As usual--silly 'ol me in there buying when no one else wants 'em. Despite the good up move in silver last night-- silver shares also doing nothing. Am buying about 50/50 gold/silver at the moment. May be a little more correcting to go yet. Most shares approaching good chart support levels. You N. Americans get this show on the road tonight, OK!!

(Thu Feb 19 1998 19:37 - ID#238295)
gold, Iraq
About a week ago I posted that I was disturbed by low gold stock volume and was criticized by several people for arguing this was BEARISH. Well the gold stocks have dipped significantly since then despite strength in bullion. Again I repeat -- low volume lastimg more than a day or two is almost always bearish for the XAU.

Gold stock volume is picking up somewhat of late to roughly average levels for most big issues. So a big drop from here is unlikely, although not, of course, impossible. But we need much higher volume to get a sustainable rally going.

Big media conspiring with Billy to sell Iraq bombing campaign to the public. Not surprising -- Israel-firsters control many of the big media companies. Here is another truth seeking Jew who tells it like it is.


By Norman Solomon / Creators Syndicate

Seven years ago, the Pentagon imposed strict curbs on media
coverage of the Gulf War. American military activities in the
region were mostly off-limits to journalists. Defense Department
censors cleared photos, video footage and battlefield dispatches.
Reporters were only allowed to travel in "pools" accompanied by
U.S. military escorts.

With some grumbling, major news organizations went along
with the restrictions -- and then, two months after the war's
end, tried to blame U.S. authorities. In a May 1991 letter to
then-Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney, the Washington editors of
15 big media outlets faulted the Pentagon for exerting "virtually
total control" over coverage.

But the main problem was self-censorship. And it still is.
Many journalists grow accustomed to parroting Pentagonspeak --
especially after Uncle Sam's missiles start flying. That's how
dead Iraqi civilians become merely "collateral damage."

Today, as the Pentagon finalizes its rules of media
engagement for the next assault on Iraq, news outlets again seem
ready to knuckle under. Tidy euphemisms for killing have
returned. And, as if to stiffen American resolve, news reports
are warning that Saddam Hussein will use civilian casualties for
propaganda purposes.

As a media theme, it's a retread. During the Gulf War, NBC's
Tom Brokaw echoed the White House and the dominant media mantra
when he told viewers: "We must point out again and again that it
is Saddam Hussein who put these innocents in harm's way." So, no
matter how many civilians die as a result of U.S. bombardment, we
can always deny responsibility.

This time around, more than ever, America's air power is
being touted as the key to success. Of course, we're assured that
the weaponry is new and improved. "The smart bombs of the Gulf
War have gotten smarter, and there will be more of them," USA
Today reports. Under the high-tech circumstances, Iraqi victims
will be blips on screens for American TV viewers and military
personnel alike.

Already, the news is filled with footage and descriptions of
cruise missiles, F-117 Stealth bombers, F-16CJ jets and other
ultramodern aircraft. Their awesome technical prowess will be
publicized in detail.

But don't expect much coverage of exactly what happens to
people when the bombs detonate. When explosions demolish vital
organs. When shrapnel slices into human flesh and bones.

Above all, the mass media are prepared to numb us,
dispensing anesthesia along with selected information. But if
there were genuine confidence about the morality of firing
missiles on Iraq, then presumably the euphemisms and media
evasions would not be deemed necessary.

Meanwhile, media conflicts of interest are unacknowledged.
So, for example, if Brokaw and his NBC News colleagues marvel at
the exploits of F/A-18 Hornet jets, they don't mention that NBC's
parent company -- General Electric -- produces the engine that
goes into each one. Nor are any such disclaimers heard on CNBC or

When CNN aired an "International Town Meeting" on Wednesday,
all three panelists were top U.S. officials. Only Madeleine
Albright, William Cohen and Samuel Berger were permitted to make
lengthy remarks. CNN anchor Bernard Shaw invited other
participants to provide "a question, not a statement." In effect,
CNN worked with the U.S. government to co-produce the program.
Fortunately, grass-roots antiwar fervor gave the staged event a

Writing in the London-based daily Independent earlier this
month, longtime Middle East correspondent Robert Fisk challenged
the notion that there are no good alternatives to attacking Iraq.

"The world might, after all, demand that all Middle Eastern
states apply all U.N. Security Council resolutions -- which
include an Israeli withdrawal from occupied Arab land as well as
the disarming of Saddam Hussein," wrote Fisk. "It could insist
that within five years, all weapons of mass destruction in the
region -- not just Iraqi weapons but Syrian missiles and Israeli
nuclear weapons and possible Iranian rockets -- be destroyed. It
could offer a real peace in the Middle East, based on human
rights, justice and a Palestinian homeland."

But instead, Fisk noted, "we are beating the old 1991 drums
of war, our claims so preposterous that they bury the real
viciousness of the real Saddam. For war is not primarily about
victory or defeat. It is about death. It represents the total
failure of the human spirit."

(Thu Feb 19 1998 19:45 - ID#20137)
Date: Thu Feb 19 1998 19:28
Silverbaron ( tolerant1 ) ID#288295:

apparently none paying users don't have access to gold stocks.

COMEX Silver Warehouse Stocks, Part 2
COMEX Silver Warehouse Stocks, Part 1

These are locked out from access. Would someone please post this information or let me know what I am doing wrong. Thanks in advance.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 19:50 - ID#288295)
A. Goose

You're not doing anything wrong. There is an ( at this time unknown ) time delay for free access. They are available when I log on at about 5:30 EST each morning, but I don't know when they are unlocked.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 19:58 - ID#153102)
@Spock AKA Andy Smith
FYI, smart guy, prior to 1933, gold and silver coin circulated as money and gold and silver certificate "currency" in the United States of America was redeemable on demand. The greenback was not. It paid "interest" in greenbacks. In 1933 the constitutional dictatorship established by Lincoln took another dictatorial step by "confiscating" gold and "paying" in greenbacks. Now, you may be accustomed to living under a constitutional dictatorship and think that is all there is and kiss the Queen's butt gladly. But, American government was established on the principle of government by the consent of the governed and when the people get this story figured out, there are going to be changes here. Bumper sticker seen today: Time For Another TEA PARTY !

The Central Banks manage down the price of gold and buy forward sales from the North American mines for twelve months and not a peep of this is published in your vaunted financial press. You think it's laughable to suggest they are all in cahoots. I think you are hilariously naive or stupid or both.

Stay down under, underneath them where you obvously belong, buggered, and in your words, deal with it. But don't try to peddle it to me.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 20:02 - ID#270236)
Spock and the gold standard.
Under a true gold standard the dollar is a definite quantity and fineness
of gold. It is not the paper. Under a gold standard the money is
gold. England from 1815 to 1914 operated under a true gold standard
and the banknotes were redeemable on demand at the Bank of England.
Banknotes under a gold standard are merely receipts excangeable for
gold. Under a gold exchange standard, the banknotes are not redeemable
for gold except between central banks and gold does not circulate. The
gold exchange standard is not a true gold standard but a step on the
path from a true gold standard to fiat money.

The U.S. was on a true gold standard for only a very brief period
from 1897 to 1914. Before that we used a bimetalic standard. If you
recall the election of 1896 was waged on this issue.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 20:06 - ID#20748)
There is another site, but I warn you, it's about as axciting as watching a rural bank flashing time and temperature.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 20:13 - ID#20748)
I was one of the people who disagreed. My point was that the very low volume in gold stocks was indicating no steep drops ahead in gold stocks, or the POG.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 20:27 - ID#153102)
The dollar is defined in the 1789 Coinage Act as a measure of silver of certain fineness. If you will recall 6Pak's post from the time of Tyler ( 1842 ) , the United States of America paid in silver at that time. I know the United States government issued gold bonds prior to the period 1860-65 because the case of Texas v White ( 1866 ) involved some of those bonds and they had them in Texas at the time of seccession. ( US didn't want to honor them, needless to say, but the SC ruled they had to. ) In 1870 or thereabouts, the mint stopped producing silver dollars because they competed with greenback paper. The election of 1896 was over "freeing silver" to be the coin of the country again. Opposed to freeing silver were the foreign money interests who held gold bond obligations of the United States from the period 1860-65. There is a continuous line of vested interest from 1860-65 to Jeckyl Island. The debt from 1860-65 is still part of the national debt.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 20:32 - ID#267276)
Federal Reserve
The Fed is owned by its member shareholding banks. In the N.Y. Fed region some 33% of them are foreign owned. Besides Creature from Jeckyl Island read Secrets of the Federal Reserve by Eustice Mullins. Scary stuff !

(Thu Feb 19 1998 20:34 - ID#348129)
@Frustrated TOO!
Frustrated: That CNBC "mistake" of $798 Gold has poped up a few times. One day in the not too distant future it will NOT BE A MISTAKE....

(Thu Feb 19 1998 20:34 - ID#374211)
@ Heard on the Street cont...from 17:03...
One of the two alleged US terrorists turns out to be one Larry Harris
a neo-nazi-white supremecist, who was well known on surveillance
and probation for a conviction on a charge of possession of the
"plague', conviniently picked up today and charged......
Oil should go up $1-2 if US Bombs briefly and without "complications"
however no Oil prediction with "complications".....Interesting calculation
for Dow declines in times of Presidential "crisis" during Nixon "crisis"
the Dow dropped 40%, from about 1000 to 600, during Reagan's
Iran contra crisis, ( remember that smart move after telling the world never
negotiate with terrorists ) in 1987, well I'm sure you all remember what
happened, 30-40% depending which hour you count, so if this
BJ crisis follows then the Dow should get down to at least 5000,
again all bets are off if we get "complications".....
Former Fed Lindsey stated tonite that S. Korea would need to "earn"
at least 36 US$ Billions just to meet their interest payments yearly,
and that this would take a trippling of their current exports to US.
The world is going to have to INFLATE BIG TIME to absorb said
exports, so that the US can sell it's goods to SE Asia....
And as if that wasn't enough the US trade deficit BALOOONED to
US$ 114 Billions last year, largest in almost 10 years, and get this
it is expected to rise to over $US225 Billions in the next 18 months,
sooner rather than later the world will focus on the fundamentals of the US economy, huge trade deficits for years to come, and of course
the markets and the overpriced US$ ....

stay tuned.....

(Thu Feb 19 1998 20:42 - ID#426220)
From Your Lips To HIS Ears....

Date: Thu Feb 19 1998 20:34
MoReGoLd ( @Frustrated TOO! )
"Frustrated: That CNBC "mistake" of $798 Gold has popped up a few times. One day in the not too distant future it will NOT BE A MISTAKE..."

From Your Lips To HIS Ears....

(Thu Feb 19 1998 20:43 - ID#153102)
All white males in the United States who are not part of the government are neo-nazi white supremcists and sexual harassers.

The Hatt
(Thu Feb 19 1998 20:45 - ID#294232)
Know a Junior that is close to production!
This has nothing to do with the stock it has more to do with an indicator that is very BULLISH FOR GOLD! Over the last couple of days they have recieved three offers for financing via Gold Loans! Why you have to ask yourself is money coming out of the woodwork for Gold. It appears to me that these companies recognise that paper is no longer as valuable to them as is Gold! Could it be the start of hot money leaving equities and moving into Gold? W.B. may have started the wheels turning! It is my opinion that the Junior Gold Market is about to get revved up! That opinion is shared by Dines, not that I put myself in the same league cause I donot! Any comments would be appreciated!

(Thu Feb 19 1998 20:46 - ID#252127)
Prime Resources 1997 Earnings at Can $0.40

Check news release at their web site, also CEO resigns.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 20:51 - ID#31868)

(Thu Feb 19 1998 20:54 - ID#153102)
@Gold Loans for Junior mines
Do you mean they offered paper today for gold tomorrow ? Were these Central Banks making the financing offer ?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 20:55 - ID#30116)
Mininum Wage???
Off of the top of a cash register receipt from a local supermarket tonight, "...Now Hiring $10.00 per hour..." I guess the labor market is tight...

(Thu Feb 19 1998 20:56 - ID#374211)
@ mozel, I'm not sure about sexual harasser part there is this white male in the white house who....

(Thu Feb 19 1998 21:00 - ID#348129)
Watching the Olympic coverage by our infamous media, we are constantly subjected to statements like:
- Going for the Gold
- Winning Gold
- Gold medal performance
- Having Golden Dreams etc. etc. etc.
This sure makes one think that Gold must be great, no even better, it must be the ultimate representation of unequalled athletic ability.
It does, uhh, doesn' t it???
Well, on second thought there are some serious flaws here.
For one thing the "Gold" medals are nothing but cheap tin and glass, with some Gold plating. Can't the IOC afford a few million out of a total
budget of billions for Real Gold medals to award the best of the best
in athletics? Are the athletes not worth more than cheap tin medals?
What about the media.
They are bashing Gold day in and day out as an investment with diminishing value etc. etc.
At the same time, they are "using" the noble metal to promote and mirror the Athletic elite of the world?
Fire up them Tin smelters..............

(Thu Feb 19 1998 21:03 - ID#393224)
Aussie Silver Twins
Anyone interested in the Legend Mining/East Coast Minerals silver find at Munni Munni--the share prices have now corrected back to support levels. Charts look good for an entry point. As usual do your OWN homework.

Try this URL. Do a search on Legend. Read the last two articles ( 2/16/98 and 2/11/98 ) . Analyst reckons they are both worth, at a MINIMUM, double what they are selling for. Upside is blue sky. Haggis reckons $2-$3 range.

Heavy Hitter
(Thu Feb 19 1998 21:09 - ID#403159)
Sotherby's is breaking records
Prices are being bid up for everything and the
PM's just sit there. Something is wrong with
this picture. Real estate is going through
the roof. Stock market breaking records.
Something has to give. Anybody know
when? I think even Another is baffled.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 21:13 - ID#222231)
This says it all.


Banking operations

The Banking Department of the BIS carries out a wide
range of banking operations, which arise from its role of
providing financial services to assist central banks in the
management of their external reserves. At present,
around 120 central banks and international financial
institutions from all over the world place deposits with
the BIS. The total of the currency deposits so placed with
the BIS amounted to about US$ 113.1 billion at the end of
March 1997, representing around 7% of world foreign
exchange reserves.

The substantial size of the Bank's balance-sheet total
reflects the importance of the functions of the BIS as
banker to central banks. Because a high proportion of the
reserve assets which central banks hold in the form of
deposits with the BIS needs to be available to them at
rather short notice, the Bank's employment of these
resources focuses upon maintaining a high degree of
liquidity. Most of these funds are placed in the market,
mainly in the form of investments with top-quality
commercial banks and purchases of short-term
government securities. While these operations today
constitute the bulk of the Bank's business, it also
conducts a range of foreign exchange and gold operations
on behalf of its customers.

The guiding principle that must be observed by the BIS in
its banking operations is laid down in Article 19 of its
Statutes, which states that: "The operations of the Bank
shall be in conformity with the monetary policy of the
central banks of the countries concerned". The Bank is
not permitted to make advances to governments or open
current accounts in their name.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 21:16 - ID#288295)
All @ ROOSA bonds

I've seen this term ROOSA bonds mentioned here intermittently, but haven't caught the meaning.

Can someone please explain what these are?

P.S. There are two ROOSA's on the CFR - Robert V. Roosa and Ruth Amende Roosa, if that is of any significance.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 21:17 - ID#153102)
Yeah. Guess where I think the neo-nazis are, too.

Saudi Arabia has agreed to let the US use its facilities against Iraq. Dissent is so strong to this policy shift that senior military officers were fired over it. Purportedly, a message from Iran influenced the Saudi. Speculation is the Iranians will co-operate with the Saudi in getting the price of oil up. Reportedly, Saudi development projects require more income ( in dollars ) .

Look for the partition of Iraq.

The Hatt
(Thu Feb 19 1998 21:20 - ID#294232)
Mozel/ No they are venture capitalists!
Cash up front with the payback being gold from future production!

(Thu Feb 19 1998 21:25 - ID#237299)
New moon
Read last night that they wanted to make the "ideal strike" during
the nights when it's dark over Bahgdad so the stealths don't show
up against the moon. ( That's what it said, honest )

Supposed to be 6 day window from 20th to 26th.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 21:31 - ID#401237)
``The market went up because this is a sign that the Saudis are hurting and want to do something about it,'' said Nauman Barakat at brokers Prudential Bache. ``But the overall perception is that their conditional offer will not be met.''

(Thu Feb 19 1998 21:39 - ID#153102)
@The Hatt @POG
That is interesting. Kind of like my notion of dividends paid in product.

@POG I see a lot of depressing/depressed speculation here on POG. When will it rise ? Will it fall ?

Fact: N.A. mines forward sold at $390 to $410 in 1997 probably to USG.

Fact: China took scarce foreign reserve greenbacks and put them into 167 tons of gold. Fact: China mines gold and puts it in its CB.

Fact: fabrication is taking more gold off the monetary scene than mining is replacing. The implication is that the POG must rise to open enough mines to meet fabrication demand.

Fact: as long as any ONE CB in the world holds on to its gold, NONE OF THEM can safely assume they can do without gold.

Fact: gold was the only safe store of value in the East Asian crisis. Will they forget that in this generation ?

Fact: the only alternative for any country to becoming a commercial coloy of the United States is gold.

Fact: The South Koreans must triple exports to satisfy the IMF. Do you think they can ? 70% of Mexican oil revenue goes to pay interest on foreign debt from the peso collapse. Can this go on forever ?

Yours truly

Sargent Bill Friday

(Thu Feb 19 1998 21:42 - ID#374211)
@ mozel.....Iraq partition?....
Although it is certainly plausible that Iraq could be partitioned, I
heard today that some of Hussein's Rep. Guards units stationed in the Sheite south were headed north for Baghdad, and I suppose some are interpreting this as some evidence for said scenerio....however it
may be Hussein's paranoid nature calling surrounding himself with
his troops in case the US decides to "get" him....
Also I cannot see the US benefiting from allowing Iran to capture
south Iraq, this would mean that Iran would be at the border of
both Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, and as you know, both of these
kigdoms sided with and paid off Hussein in the 80's during the
Iraq-Iran bloody war, with hundreds of thousands dead to prevent
Iran from capturing Basrah and south Iraq. And think of the
enormous influence Iran would hold in the Region with really
NO Iraq buffer.....If it does occur the US would be big the loser over
time hands down.... My take on this Iraq "thing" is not about Iraqi Bio-Chem weapons at all as mentioned in previous posts, it's about
control of and pricing in US$ of Oil. ...BTW I heard tonite that the
US is going to force the Saudis and Kuwaitis etc.... to pay for this
Bombing, probably US$ Billions, just like they did after Gulf War,
I believe 15 US$ Billions. US "protection" is not cheap......

(Thu Feb 19 1998 21:46 - ID#237299)
Saudis allow U.S. to use bases
Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
February 20, 1998

Saudi Arabia Alters Stand on American Military Action Against Iraq

Both Saudi Arabia and Turkey have moved closer to the American position on
military action against Iraq in the last 24 hours. The change in Saudi
Arabia has been the most striking, with reports circulating that the Saudis
have given the United States permission to use Saudi territory for
launching air strikes against Iraq. This policy shift has not come without
serious internal stress in Saudi Arabia. According to the Egyptian
newspaper "Al-Arabi," the order to cooperate with the Americans met with
some resistance within the Saudi armed forces. Al-Arabi reported that
several commanders have been dismissed, including Major General Badr al-
Salih, commander of the naval base at Jubayl.

( I'll post the rest of the article if anyone is interested. The URL doesn't
seem to work. )

(Thu Feb 19 1998 21:47 - ID#280222)
WB's "silver problem"
It's been discussed here and elsewhere about WB's "silver problem", and "how's he going to get rid of it without ruining the market?". ... This reminds me of something I witnessed many years ago as a very young man...My boss ( at the time ) had a unique car for sale. He parked this car in front of one of his many businesses in a very high traffic area. People would stop time and again and ask about the car, but would always be astounded at the huge price he was asking. I asked him one day, "Sir, do you think you might have the price a bit high?" He replied, "Son, this car once belonged to ______, and it's worth every cent I'm asking. Someday, someone will stop and pay me my price." "How can you be so confident?" I asked. With a twinkle in his eye, he said, "Because that car is going to sit right where it's at 'til I get top dollar. You see, son, I DON'T NEED THE MONEY."... ( he got his price ) .. Now, my point is, WB don't need the money either. And, he won't sell 'til he gets TOP dollar. 'nuff said.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 21:49 - ID#288295)
Nick@C re: ECM, LEG

I agree - a good price now for entry. ( I'm already there )

The current consensus seems to be that the find contains about 100,000 tonnes at ( minimum ) 0.72% silver, plus additional PGM value as yet not announced, but perhaps very significant.

On the basis of the silver value alone at Elisabeth Hill, my judgement is that ECM is likely worth AT LEAST A$ 2.00 to 3.00, and the 2/19 close was A$ 0.71.

On the basis of percentage owned of the joint venture, and fully diluted shares, the price ratio of ECM to LEG should be between 3.5 and 4 to 1.

Bulk assay of a large ( 103 tonne ) sample should be made public the end of next week, which should give eveyone a better idea of the whole picture for East Coast and Legend.

As always, caveat emptor; this is still a speculation for now.

Barb Hughes
(Thu Feb 19 1998 21:49 - ID#20783)
Guys & Gals

There's a new place to get info but have not had time to check it out. In the earily 70's I used teletypes & Quotron. Quotron is presently owned by reuters ( maybe it was back then memory is a bit weak this PM ) and now they are on the net at . Let me know if ya'll find any winning info!!!

Take care...Barb

(Thu Feb 19 1998 21:50 - ID#153102)
The Iranians said something to the Saudi to cause the policy change. Maybe they gave assurances of just wanting that waterway the Iraqi's and Iranians hav fought over since the Garden of Eden days. The Iranians would co-operate with Washington to get that. Maybe, not a total partition, just an arm ( Kirkuk ) and a leg ( Shattut Waterway ) maybe.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 21:58 - ID#256326)
the real pressure point in all of this is moscow and the european banks.
do the russians really want to see iraq on the back burner for another 10 years with the oil pumps rusting whilst they are owed ~$80 billions? ditto small-small for the european banks which are loaned up in the gulf as well as in SE asia, as D.A. has posted. US failure/resistance to fund IMF bailouts of euro banks in asia coupled with "postponing" iraqi oil flow is an inducement to do the "right" thing. wouldn't a nice cheerful dacha for hussein in the urals with a pied-a-terre a moscow be a far far better thing? cheap at half the price?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 22:07 - ID#374211)
@ mozel....Deal for Iranian water access to mouth of Gulf?
Not likely IMHV....Iran bought a couple of Russian Subs and have
numerous speed boats and the like equiped with anti-carrier Chinese
missiles etc....Not a good move by the US IF it happens....

The Iraniamns probably told the Saudis, that
as a gesture of thier good will , they could allow the US planes to take
off from it's territory, and Bomb Iraq their sworn enemy, and weaken it
further, and unlike in the 80's, the hundreds of
thousands of Iranian pilgrams due to visit Mecca in a month, will not riot
and not try to overthrow King Fahad , as before.....
BTW Iran also needs much higher Oil US$ price to develop it's Oil production capacity, on that point for now these two agree, but as I mentioned before the "musical chairs" game of allies and enemies over there, changes by the hour or so it appears.....

(Thu Feb 19 1998 22:18 - ID#153102)
Yeah, the French and Germans sold Iraq a bundle of stuff. Taking out Iraq is the same as taking out their loan collateral. ( If you remember BCCI, the US gave SH credits, so Americans that sold really got paid by the US government. It's in the debt. Iraq-gate was bigger bucks than Iran-gate. Bigger scum, too. It just never got the same media. )

The European banks are also taking the Indonesia hit. I think Rubin suckered the IMF into getting overextended so the US won't appear to blame. Isn't Camdessus French ? So, they aren't subverting the Europeans directly, but indirectly by causing their loans to fail. This is extra pressure to bring them into the EURO.

Even I can see that the greenback is being used with politics and military intervention to create commercial colonies by subverting non-greenback financial institutions and economies.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 22:20 - ID#256326)
mozel: it used to be that if you walked out toward the shatt-al-arab from just north of khoramshahr ( iranian port ) you could see across the date groves almost to basra. the two valleys of iraq and iran almost come together at the sea, two of the great river valleys of history: mesopotamia and khuzistan. despite the fact that arabs live across the iranian border and shia folk live on the other side, although both dminished since the iran-iraq war, i do not see a historic change on this historic frontier. kuwait city is only 15 minutes away as the iron/aluminium bird flies. i do not think that iran would want to attempt to occupy iraq. what i do think possible is that turkey and iran will want to control kurdistan, that poor sad sack of the middle east which seems ever destined to be the pawn of whoever is active in the region.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 22:24 - ID#26669)
Mozel, I like your prose:
You said earlier tonight, "Fact: as long as any ONE CB in the world holds on to its gold, NONE OF THEM can safely assume they can do without gold."

This ( and the rest of your post ) is probably the most concise construct I've read here in months, illustrating exactly why this winter's bear market is merely a passing fad. When we are all old men ( and women, Barb ) we'll remember this as the great bear of '97. As I've said here before, gold isn't just a pretty thing or industrial metal or money substitute, it is a potent weapon which makes or breaks empires. Those who minimize its power will fall like the great Monteczuma before Cortes...

(Thu Feb 19 1998 22:26 - ID#153102)
Saddam Hussein killed hundreds of thousands of Iranians in that waterway zone. The Iranian regime sent them there to die. It would be desirable for obvious domestic political reasons for this regime to be able to have a result to show that they did not die in vain.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 22:32 - ID#153102)
All the facts are on one side. All of the propaganda and one year of steadily draining away market support by depressing the price are on the other.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 22:32 - ID#256326)
mozel: perhaps, but my guru taught me that the wise nation seeks only to control that which it can truly control, and that vengeance is almost always its only reward.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 22:36 - ID#57232)
The partition of Iraq?
Mozel,All: Interesting scenario. Give a piece to Saudi Arabia, a piece to Iran, a piece to Turkey. The only problem with that scenario is that we have no troops to speak of -- only airpower.

Turkey has the troops -- last I heard they were in Iraq already.

Iran has troops

Saudi Arabia -- I don't know

What does Russia get?

Whether all parties will work together -- I don't know. This is no longer a NATO - only group.

What worries me about this scenario is that Russia will not go along, for 80 billion reasons, as I recall, and this would eventually destabilize the area. Partitioning seems unwise, perhaps because this policy might continue. It there is serious thought about partitioning, it may be because the US does not have the troops to occupy Iraq. So, as Old Soldier would say, the best approach to peace is with a strong military. Now we are talking about dealing from weakness, and compromises we may regret later.

What would make more sense is to depose Saddam with a United Nations type force, and set up a neutral leader. Then we could maintain an interest in the area, and hopefully discourage other military aggression.

But -- that does not seem to be in the cards.

Regardless, it would be interesting to find out what deal was made to allow the US to use Saudi Arabian soil for US sorties into Iraq.

Am I the only one the has an ominous feeling about the concept of partitioning? I liked the idea of simply keeping a military presence in the area until Saddam is deposed or capitulates much better. The old concept of high moral ground is the best way, but it costs money.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 22:38 - ID#153102)
@aurophile I never heard that from the guru before now. I
don't know if Iran will get that waterway out of Washington for co-operating, but I'm sure they want it much, much more than a bunch of Kurdish problems.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 22:41 - ID#256326)
but since it is demonstrated fact that nations are not wise and do not do what is in their best interests, the current nexus of misplaced interests will very likely lead to imbalances in financial preferences.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 22:45 - ID#288155)
Silverbaron--Roosa Bonds--
Roosa Bonds: Robert Roosa was JFKs under secretary of treasury--he constructed what he called perimeter defenses to stop a possible run on the dollar. He devised special issues of Treasury bonds, DENOMINATED IN SWISS FRANCS. The treasury would issue a Roosa bond; that is, it would take in foreign dollars and promise to repay at some future date in Swiss francs. It worked but was VERY EXPENSIVE as the Swissies appreciated so much.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 22:47 - ID#374211)
@ Geeeee what is going on at Kitco lately?
Great information on Gold, factual debates relating to Gold,
Gold insights and analysis, even humor, NO brew Ha ha's in while!
Where is LGB when you need him.....

(Thu Feb 19 1998 22:49 - ID#256326)
mr. deak
TZAdeak: are you related to the famous nicholas?

(Thu Feb 19 1998 22:50 - ID#26669)
Heavy Hitter, my theory about why pm's are sitting there.
Heavy, mind you, I'm not a securities analyst. My forte is behavoral science, so I tend to think of things like this as collective human behaviors. I suspect that at least parts of the gold bear are just the mob psychology of investment bubbles.

What the investors have done is created a thing called 'consensual reality', a worldview based upon agreement between participants. An easy example of 'consensual reality' is religous worldview among members of a church or sect, another more malignant one might be the commonly described 'Inside the Beltway Washington Mentality'. Recall the story of the Emperor's New Clothes? Or the major shift of Western thought upon first presentation of Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle?

So what will happen is that as long as consensual reality continues to mimic the real world paper profits will continue and so will the PM bear. Paper will continue upward until it reaches an exponential growth phase, then will collapse, all based upon the number of members who experiance dissonance between their experiance and the expectations of consensus. IMHO, of course... merely the babblings of an idiot...nothing more...

(Thu Feb 19 1998 22:50 - ID#288155)
You ( and D.A. ) did some serious work, which was read with great interest ( and not a little pleasure ) . I find myself landing on your side of the paper-pile; Greshams Law is still functioning.

What we are now watching is the confluence of flooding stream, destructive forces that can not be channeled because the dams are full. In fact, the dams are adding to the flow, because they too must discharge water.

The Fed efforts are limited by the fact that they have NO control over Euro-dollars; that derivatives, brought into being to manage risk have--in the real penultimate irony--compounded the risk. In the words of another physicist the act of playing the game, changes the rules of the game...

(Thu Feb 19 1998 22:54 - ID#153102)
There's no morality in any of this. There's not enough money to buy the appearance of consensus this time around. Bush spent it all.
Taking Iraq more or less out of the picture hurts the Russians and the Euro banks and, they hope, puts a chain on Saudi Arabia
Iraq is short of troops, too. After a week or two of Boom Boom, there will be even fewer of them enthusiastic to fight. There are bound to be plotters from the 1996 fiasco in the North who Saddam hasn't uncovered. All it takes is enough US troops to guard him while a US General crowns him the new king, I mean deon-cratic President, of Iraq and gives him a suitcase full of greenbacks to buy support.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 22:55 - ID#374211)
@ aurophile...a definite maybe....

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:02 - ID#153102)
@aurophile A most likely nexus.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:04 - ID#26669)
Mozel you are right about the facts
but I wonder seriously about the viability of propaganda theory. I really suspect that it is more just consensual reality which is diverging from the real world, not so much propaganda as just the kind of self talk that lemmings must have as they start their migrations. One could argue that, based upon our admittedly poor sector performance over the last year that WE are the deluded ones, but I have faith in the principle of market correction...sooner or later...

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:05 - ID#256326)
i don't think so
mozel: the fact of the matter is that hussein does not matter to anyone except the man in the street in a few out the way places. otherwise he is only an advertising character, a foil for the press. either the republican guard is much stronger than any in history, or hussein is a truly unique and charismatic leader, or all fall down. the odds are on the last.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:13 - ID#316409)
@ Tzadeak......"Where's LGB when you need him?"
That's not nice, I've been "on topic" for weeks now! Long posts about Gold St. gaudens and all that..... Not to mention being less contentious and uninterested in arguments for arguments sake. Now, how will the Iraq bombardment affect Gold? not much I would say, judging from the Gulf war precedent.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:14 - ID#153102)
@223 @aurophile
@223 We have been the subject of a full scale disinformation campaign supplementing out of sight market manipulation. This is not a normal market. This is a market in which government has a direct interest. Believe it or not, government knows how to get the press to tell a story the way it wants it told. Not the whole press, but "leading publications". Disinformation campaigns are real.

@aurophile I agree. They've been cut off from spare parts for years. All fall down after some boom boom is very likely.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:17 - ID#57232)
SDRer: Interesting comments -- seeing the future dimly!
SDRer: I too have a sense of inevitability regarding what is happening. Europe is in trouble -- the Asian flu has spread. This will boost the dollar short term.

Rising Pheonix-like from the SEAsian crisis is the Indonesian currency basket -- in currencies foreign to the currencies of the Western World. I do not think all of those derivatives deals are set up in these currencies, so Europe will have less opportunity to 'play' in the future. Eventually gold will be part of this currency basket. Then, later, a transition to a gold standard of some kind. The EURO and Dollar will be eventually forced to drop the 'fiat' currencies approach -- to the benefit of all.

I wonder -- could this be a breaking-off point for the US, where AG et al tell the Europeans that they can no longer afford to inflate the dollar to help them out of the derivatives/debt mess they are in?

I don't know -- it may not be that easy to shift loyalties. But -- China is rapidly becoming an economic force to respect, and that seems to be where much of the future world's economic power will lie. I hope we will maintain the military and moral strength which will be needed for this. China also needs the US as a trading partner, much to the consternation of Europe.

By the way -- in defense of what D.A. was saying about the 200 billion allocated for Social Security going into the budget as a 'deficit' may be right -- simply because this may be the first time an entitlement was correctly allocated in the budget. Unfortunately, I doubt that off-budget items such as entitlements will stay in the budget after this year.

The most important question is whether $1 trillion could be added to the official US debt without the public being aware of what just happened. Somehow the last vestiges of Gramm-Rudmann got subverted, so public disclosure of debt ceiling increases is no longer required. Perhaps Bill Buckler can tell us what he knows about this matter.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:19 - ID#316409)
@ Bill Clinton...Optimum time for strike
Hmmm let's see now, dark of the Moon, yes, but there are some much more important considerations here. Let me see, Chelsie's Stanford "Open House" night Friday, that Chinese Businessmen payback meeting thingy Saturday, my upcoming Paula Jones hearing next week and then there's the important consultations with Vernon Jordan before he talks to that right wing conspiracy Starr feller, uh my speech before the Clinton legal defense fund folks next Tuesday and...hmmmm...forget the Full Moon, find me an open date week after next, will ya Hillary? I have to go to war and all....

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:25 - ID#374211)
@ LGB or LGB2...BTW do you have to pat Bart twice....
My statement was tongue in cheek, I guess I should have
drawn that grin thingy ( *;* ) ....I read where you are now a
practicing spirit , so you couldn't be all that bad now, have seen
that some of your posts have changed....
As far as the Iraqi attack's effect on Gold, this time is different,
this is NOT the UN surrounding Iraq, this is basically the US and UK
vs Iraq, alot Arab nations, Russia, China and I don't know if you read
my posts but I have described in deail my view of the effect on Gold....
wouldn't want to use up bandwith repeating myself.....

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:26 - ID#288155)
Adjusting trade

Between October and December 1997, the IMF forecast for the current
account of the high-income countries in 1998 shifted from a surplus of $6.9bn to a deficit of $29bn. Two-thirds of the deterioration is forecast to occur in the US, with adjustments in Canada and the UK accounting for much of the rest. The IMF now forecasts that the US is likely to end up with a current account deficit of $230bn this year - up 30 per cent from 1997. This comes at a time when the US trade position is already weak. Figures out yesterday showed that the 1997 trade deficit was the highest for nine years.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:26 - ID#22956)
Friday Gold
( ugh ) ...I hope all the shorts and puts are in place... watch the bottom fall out.


(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:28 - ID#257148)
Where's that Dictionary???
223/ anyone
Translation please
"Inside the beltway.."

Sounds like a SF story I once read.

and also, from last night plse translate

"fade the paper"

what languish is this???

My e-mail bounced back- contained Important Au/Ag charts and ski resorts.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:29 - ID#344308)


look at april gold, it is on the verge of a strong move...
me-thinks the reverse of the sages....
the grains are going to cook tomorrow.....wonder which way...
time to add some more value to the puts...export numbers in
the morning....who's at the plate? buuuuurrrppppppppp....
oil will cook big-time if bombing starts in iraq....the
dec98 2500 calls are cheap...12pts...huge-pay-off if hostilities
break-out....and A LOT of people want that to happen...
what do you think? chaos and flux abound...expect the un-expected
in un-expectedly greater frequency! physics demands stasis be-twixt
the elements....the pendulum is swinging with a vengence towards the liberal do as i say...don't do as i do...for-lunch-bunch...the lying
and posturing has opened an international pandora's box...pandora
wants to play, and she has many faces.....poor, poor peopleo.....
they'll never really know...

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:34 - ID#153102)
Those trade balance figures have had no significance since trade balances settlemetns in gold were discontinued. The amazing thing is that economists, so-called, still don't get it. The greenback is as good as gold in international trade and if we need more, we just loan them to ourselves out of thin air, add it to our debt, and print them. We can run a trade deficit forever. What difference does it make ? We are swapping real things for printed paper. What a deal ??

You and JTF must be young. You folks seem to be still inhaling a lot of the smoke the "system" is blowing at us. I don't mean that critically.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:36 - ID#340459)
This weekend is the most important for all of us, Whether we are goldbugs or man in the street.
Rubin has to perform as never before to contain Japan and keep IMF strong, Annan has to put a humane spin on events, Singapore and Malaysia has to support Indonesia against IMF ( International Mafia Fund ) sting, Oil and Gold has to find a direction on the same path, BC has to decide between his ass or G.I. Joe's, Man has to look into himself and balance between Moral and Material... G'nite All

Although we might only have a small beacon of light for our travels and travails in current pages of history atleast it is our own light and not procured by manipulation.............

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:37 - ID#57232)
No money left for the 'high moral ground'
Mozel: Sadly I must agree with you. Saddam is very weak, and it does appear that we now have the support of critical parties. Saddam's support will vanish once his followers realize that his power is gone. But that will take ground troops to achieve, and I hope we have enough to pull this off quickly -- before Saddam lobs one of his few WMD missles into Israel, and achieves the one thing that will put him into the Arab history books. Otherwise byebye.

Next will not be the carving up of Iraq, but -- as you have just said -- the placement of some new Iraqi leader attractive to all. The Iraqi people will benefit. And, with a friendly Iraq, Russian reparations can be made with Iraqi oil.

Wouldn't it be interesting if this happened on the day of the solar eclipse -- also a day very close to a twenty year peak in tidal activity. As many of you know, I have plotted these tidal cycles over a one hundred year period, and maxima and minima of tidal activity are linked to market turning points. But -- I know better than to firmly predict what kind of turning point, and what market.

My cautious educated guess is that if all goes well we will have a bull market in equities. If not, a bull market in oil, and gold.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:44 - ID#153102)
Yeah, those thousand points of BushLite were will-o-the-wisps. You can't trust any light but the one from your own candle and those of friends.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:47 - ID#57232)
G'Nite all!
Aurator: 'Inside the beltway' refers to being inside the beltway ( the superhighway ) that circles around Washington DC. If you are inside the beltway you are close to the source of information/rumors, etc. regarding what is happening in Congress or the Whitehouse, IMHO.

Have you been scanning the Drudge reports? One of the hottest places ont the net for finding the latest on xxxxgate.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:48 - ID#257148)
Ra! Ra!
I understand, focus on the maximum rise of SS activity. Where rate of change is furtherest from the stasis. cherokee will love this. It is, after all, flux.


(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:49 - ID#22956)
yer mail arrived...a little tattered and torn, but it arrived. Go Jamaica! Get the Gold! Nagano


(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:54 - ID#257148)
TLA = Three Letter Acronyms...
Thanks for translation Beltway- still sounds like SF to me, or a new diet.
As for following ****gate, I must say I get all I need to know about it from the kind posters here. I can understand N American's fascination for the peregrinations of your leaders' member, but, I confess not to share it. I also think that it is not really so important in the scheme of things.

Thanks for concise explanation of Roosas.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:56 - ID#334280)
anti-contrarian vs. pro-contrarian
Majority of opinions at this sight these past few days indicate that gold will not respond to US bombing in Iraq. Majority of opinions on CNBC indicate that "war" is good for the stock market. All these perverse opinions and "reverse" psychology incline me to think that it is just TOO QUIET out there just days before we go to war.

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:56 - ID#210235)
@widows and children buying gold stocks?
Been asked for a recommendation for a gold stock suitable for a widows and children-style trust fund. No junior potential high flyers need apply. Got any ideas? Has to be purchasable in USA, ADR ok. Will of course exercise due diligence, no whining forthcoming. Thanks!

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:57 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Charts
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

A Disaster In Progress!

(Thu Feb 19 1998 23:58 - ID#344308)


better get ready for a dose of reality...saddam is much
stronger now than before desert storm I...his death
dealing capabilities are greater than ever...and he is the
spider..the west--us--the fly.......
his support through coercion and influence peddling--oil--has galvanized
the many? 600 million? 800 million? western
ideoligies..and methodology....dinosaurs...recognized and
being chased towards the cliff....