Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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John B__A
(Sat Feb 21 1998 00:02 - ID#77133)
(Myrmidon re PRU)
I just did a hasty look at PRU. Its President and CEO, Ronald Parker resigned yesterday. Any significance to this? It also had a Buffett gap from about 6 to 7, then peaked at 8.50 and has now retraced about 50% to 7 7/16. regards,

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 00:04 - ID#403159)
Me thinks Buffett knows more about what is going to happen than 99.9 %
If Rubin resigns the party's over. That will
turn the tables right over. A surprise will
hit the markets and Buffett knows it's just
a matter of a little time.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 00:05 - ID#153102)
@Davos @clone
@Davos I do not expect a great run up in gold. The financial implications of it to all the short sellers argue against it ? The longer they can keep gold on the market under control, the more paper profit somebody is making. Also, as long as the market is open the fiction of delivery can be kept up.

I think the important question is how much longer will gold trade internationally at all.

@clone Trust in paper in America has only been achieved after years of dumbing people down in government schools and by constant propaganda about the magic of compound interest by everyone from insurance salesmen to financial advisors. Most Americans now exist mentally in a cloud of arrogance, disregard for law, arrogant disrepect for the opinion of decent mankind, ignorance of fundamentals, and imperterbable invincibility. When the spell breaks, madness will break out even beyond the madness now evident. Those whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad. Of the triggers for collapse, you omitted derivatives.

Gold has been used by governments traditionally to induce trust for paper. The United States government represented the greenback was backed by gold after 1933. In the same way they represent there is a social security trust fund today. They will have no credibility after what's coming.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 00:10 - ID#316193)
Truly Amazing Charts Linked From Fiend's Super Bear Page

(Sat Feb 21 1998 00:12 - ID#339212)
@ John B re: PRU

PRU has retracted as any other silver stock. The CEO resignation is not affecting the stock. I bought it at $8 1/4 because of its $0 debt.

I still don't understand why anyone will want CDE with so much debt. It is as bad as AMAX Gold. There are better candidates available IMHO.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 00:17 - ID#339212)
Some words of wisdom from a PDG employee

On the Yahoo message board of ECO the following is extracted and I post here ( msg 244 ) :


"I work for Placer Dome U.S., Inc. We expect gold to stay in the $300 range for two years"


Does PDG know some more than we do?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 00:22 - ID#37867)
Work for Placer Dome U.S. Inc. I don't
Expect gold to stay in the $300 range for the next two years I don't.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 00:25 - ID#252127)
Myrmidon @Prime

With the new mill in operation, plus the direct to smelter ore shipments, it's very possible to see both AU and AG production much higher for 1998.
I also judge the low end of a fair silver price at over $7 US, If I am correct, earnings may increase considerably.
The misinformation machine will try its damnest to keep both metals down but should eventually fail. Read this bull by Andy Smith, much like the Armstrong guy.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 00:30 - ID#153102)
I think we ought to put some numbers on the probability of this statement.
For it to be true the US government is going to have to subsidize every ounce of gold sold in London not taken from the vault to the tune of $100 per oz in round numbers. How much $ would that be at the present offtake rate ? A big number I think.
If it were true that this was the plan, the gap between supply and demand would widen even more. Offtake will increase while mines are closing. Where will the gold come from ? It would have to come from CB vaults. It wouldn't exist anywhere else.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 00:31 - ID#252127)
Myrmidon @Prime....Try again for story

With the new mill in operation, plus the direct to
smelter ore shipments, it's very possible to see both AU
and AG production much higher for 1998.
I also judge the low end of a fair silver price at over
$7 US, If I am correct, earnings may increase
The misinformation machine will try its damnest to keep
both metals down but should eventually fail. Read this
bull by Andy Smith, much like the Armstrong guy.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 00:35 - ID#288157)
Japan: Common currency system urged

Wider use of yen is part of a regional support scheme likely to be aired at a meeting of G7 ministers in London, report Michiyo Nakamoto and Gillian Tett in Tokyo

The Japanese government is considering calling for a common currency
system for Asia as part of its plan to support Asian economies affected by the recent currency crisis, it emerged yesterday.

Comment: I frist saw this in a FT 'side-bar' three weeks ago--so they've been busy, in their own quiet way...

John B__A
(Sat Feb 21 1998 00:35 - ID#77133)
Myrmidon re PRU
I appreciate the PRU lead. I will spend some serious time studing PRU. In relooking the chart, its right back to where it was the night of the Buffett announcement. This should be an excellent resistance point for a bounce. thanks,

(Sat Feb 21 1998 00:38 - ID#153102)
One more thought on this topic. Assuming they think they can stop it at $400, the price of gold could rise to that neighborhood if there is no fundamental delivery problem to default on due to oversales or "bad" gold loans at the current price. Presumably, a rise in the price of oil would leave room for a rise in the price of gold.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 00:40 - ID#288157)

UK:Lonrho deal agreed with JCI
Lonrho will be able to buy back 26.2 per cent of its shares, after a
long-awaited deal was struck yesterday between the conglomerate founded
by Tiny Rowland, and JCI, the South African mining group.

Lordy--that took long enough. Lawyers get paid by the hour...

(Sat Feb 21 1998 01:00 - ID#339212)
@ mozel, jack

jack: thanks for the URL, the first one didn't work.

mozel: I have a theory and I invite comments. First I do not believe the supply/demand numbers. Demand is overstated by gold bug analysts. One comes up with a number and this number is kicked around all over the world. Exceeding demand results in higher prices.

Manipulation can last so long. We are seing PM weakness for 3 months now, and this is not due to derivatives any more. Of course, the CBs triggered the slide but now the weakness is self sustained.

When TVX sold future production, we were buying. The pros sold to us suckers. PDG feels gold is staying down, so does ABX otherwise ABX will have exercised the puts. I hope I am wrong but I have great suspicions with the demand numbers.

I have learned from the silver charlatans of the 70s. 18 years have gone buy and the demand has not materialized yet, except from someone trying to corner the market.

I view PMs as a long term chaos insurance. I buy PM stocks and I hold them. Yes, I am a gold bug but I also don't get carried away.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 01:15 - ID#339212)
@ mozel re: 00:30

The effect of mine closings will not be seen for another six months. What I am afraid of is that China will tank next, and we are going to see another "patriotic gold collection" a la Korea to hit the market. This will offset reduced mine supplies of gold with net effect little upward pressure in gold.

Unless the western public gets interested in PMs nothing significant will happen to the price of PMs. Furthermore, is Russia going to have "another patriotic collection"? Where does this stop? Are people brain dead?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 01:21 - ID#288157)
Bond Issues---The market is increasingly receptive to much larger bond issues than before, said Paul Abberly, head of fixed income at Lombard Odier, a private Swiss bank in London.
Before what? one wonders. Before all took leave of their senses? A long time ago, when I had trouble visualizing these enormous numbers, a kindly soul said, Think in terms of time...debt is about time. One million seconds is something around 2 weeks; a billion seconds is 32 years.
And now trillions pour forth...centuries one supposes, reluctant to crunch the seconds and know the sentence. Ah well, here are some new issues for the week:
World Banks plans to issue record $5bn bond.
Fannie Mae, the largest borrower in the US market, is planning to follow up the success of its first two jumbo global bonds with an issue of $3bn to $4bn next week.
( Believe they did $4bn last month. Thats a lotta mortgages...
Spain issues first 30-year Euro ( actually 31 year...Salud! )

And then, in the days JP Morgan/Korea story, this jewel: One US banker said, If the principle is established that Korean companies can get the courts to tamper with agreements with foreign lenders, then there is a lot of potential for mischief. Which must win the Understatement of the Year Award...


(Sat Feb 21 1998 01:39 - ID#153102)
It does not matter how much demand rises so long as supply is there to fill it.
The evidence is that the USG subsidized depressing the gold price with supply in London for eco-political reasons. Piling on by short sellers may have accelerated the planned depression in gold price. But, open interest tells a tale.
ABX cannot cash in its puts if there are longs waiting to buy at this price and the problem is that there are already too many long contracts that intend to take delivery. That would simply increase the cost to government of subsidy, a cost that is already pretty high, and it would be counterproductive, politically speaking, for ABX to do this. More profit in keeping up good relations with Treasury.

If you are not a gold trader, but you are a gold accumulator, today's price is unbelievably good. Isn't it less than average mining cost at almost every mining company ?

So, I can't justify the demand figures although there seems to be some cross validation from different sources in them for Mid-East demand. And there's really no way to know what's warehoused. But, we know there was enough demand to swallow the Canadian, Australian, and Argentine CB hoards and Australia's didn't even go through London. I must say if there is going to be demand at any price, it is at today's price. And the evidence is that a lot of semi-official and official people are talking down demand. They would not need to do that if demand were not creating problems for their subsidy program.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 01:47 - ID#20137)
Just for fun can someone post the prices for Dinars and Dirhams. Please note the amount of gold in each just so we can do some comparison work. Also it would be nice to know who carries these coins for sell.

Thanks and good evening

(Sat Feb 21 1998 01:50 - ID#153102)
Gold is still being smuggled from Hong Kong into China. The Chinese bought 167 tons reportedly to defend the paper INTERNALLY. Gold that is bought from smugglers is not going to be turned over in patriotic collections.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 01:54 - ID#339212)
@ mozel

mozel, "you say that ABX cannot cash its puts if there are longs waiting to buy at this price". Then when are they going to cash them in? at $320?
What good are the puts then? Is everyone with large number of puts in gold going to take a bath?

Surely this must be scary even for small gold traders. Why on earth somebody will choose to trade gold when so many other commodities are more liquid!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 02:12 - ID#153102)
If you enter a commodity market and sell a contract, but you are not a producer of the commodity, you are not a trader, you are a speculator. You give the market liquidity with your participation. But, here we have a market that is unique because of its direct interest to government. I don't know if ABX will have to eat the puts or if London and USG will figure out something to keep down shareholder questions. It's like JohnD said, all we're missing here is George Smiley.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 02:17 - ID#339212)

If you are living in the US be careful when buying PRU.

There are 2 companies using PRU as ticker symbol.
One, is "Prime Resources", the second is "Prime Residential".

If you place an order through the net, you may buy PRU - Prime Residential", instead of PRU - Prime Resources.

Best to talk to a broker to ensure that you buy the PRU - Prime Resources instead of the PRU - Prime Residential.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 02:23 - ID#244360)

The DOW's stratospheric levels have been caused by the insanity of blind, ignorant confidence in irrational expectations.
I am 16 and while talking with a peer on investments and my gains in METLF, he was rather impressed, but countered, with utmost assurence, that his KO would go up at least a little every year. He would ( underline, bold ) make a fortune with it in time. Think about it, only 16, and the message of "no downside" has already been impressed upon him; he's an average high schooler, not "into" investing by any means.
Somebody correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't the movement of shares into "buy and hold hands" reduce the effective float of the those companies' shares? The shares are, practically speaking, gone from the market, creating greater spreads between supply and demand. In turn, this pushes prices up as the vicious cycle continues. Finally, this has the effect of ever increasing leverage in the markets as the trading price of fewer and fewer shares pushes up the "valuations" of the greater and greater number of shares "bought and held."
"Buy and hold for no downside" is the mindset that has fueled the rocketing equities, and until this mindset is shattered, Puetz-esque predictions will not see fruitation. What will shatter it? I don't know, but I believe it will take something on an unparalleled order of magitude.

Maybe this is all old hat to the old hands. I'd like opinions in any case.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 02:31 - ID#339212)
@ LeLand re: 00:10

Thank you for posting those interesting charts. The most amazing is the one where investors are paying 5 times the book value for DJIA stocks.

Really smart people, eh! They don't want gold with book value $300! I guess they would love gold it when its book value will be similar to the DOW's, that is $1,500 gold.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 02:33 - ID#153102)
I agree with what you say about leverage. If there were only one share of GM on the market, that share sets the price. So, fewer share on the market makes it easier to intervene for support.
But, volumes are pretty high it seems to me. When there are fewer buyers than sellers, price will react.

Buy and hold people can be forced to market. Unexpected expenses. Loss of job. And people change their minds.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 02:35 - ID#339212)
@ Winston

Is it a typo? Are you only 16 years old? If so, please allow me to congradulate you for understanding so well economic matters.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 02:44 - ID#153102)
I don't see how we will ever see gold at such a price as $1,500 per oz.
That would be tantamount to saying inflation is totally out of control.
The fraud would be exposed to the mass mind.
Price of gold is a ludicrous concept. Read what I posted earlier about price of silver.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 02:51 - ID#244360)
No typo. Thank you for your generous comments.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 02:53 - ID#339212)
@ mozel

If the public is irrational paying 5 times book value for DOW stocks ( see Leland charts ) the same public will do the driving of gold to $1,500.
Book value of gold is now $300 - production costs - then 5 times gold book value makes $1,500.

I have given up on rationale, my friend, people want stocks at any price.
At times I listen to Don McDonald on BNR. He says and I quote:
"Stocks will always go up because the world's economy has always grown".
Figure this one out! And you should listen to the callers. NEVER a question about gold investing!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 03:01 - ID#339212)
@ Winston

This is not a compliment, it is a fact.

I have known many young people of your age ( I am 52 now ) and it amazes me to see someone like you having clear thinking. I wish my nephew was like you ( he is the same age ) or my wife's nephews. You have a very bright future ahead of you. It also amazes me that unlike other young people, you participate in this forum while others are playing Nintendo. I am delighted to know that there is youth like you engaging in deep thinking.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 03:09 - ID#153102)
@Myrmidon @LeLand's Great Charts
Those charts tell a great story. On the dividend chart it is easy to see the progression from investment to speculation. I remember when Wall Street got behind corporate managment's scam on plowing earnings back "into the company". Into their pockets is closer to the truth. Company's once had to prove their price with dividends. Now, they prove it with earnings which the market rewards with higher trading price. Buy and hold won't look so good if the stock price is not rising or is falling and there is no dividend.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 03:18 - ID#153102)
There really isn't much of an investment story to tell for gold. Hedge against inflation is a defensive monetary decision, not an investment decision. Investing in money is as ludicrous a concept as the price of money. Gold is like the yen or the franc or the mark. It's money. There's just no country interested in defending it in the currency market.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 03:22 - ID#339212)
@ mozel

And of course, some public money has shifted from real estate investments into stocks. The real estate mania of the '70s and '80s is over. Now the motto is "Real estate is good only if used as private residence".

Well, the stock market in the US reminds us of the Japanese market of the early '90s. Salesmen were selling to Japanese housewives who administered household finances. These were door to door salesmen. We know what happened to Japan's equities in the past 5 years.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 03:28 - ID#153102)
One more thought for you. Mutual funds and pension funds have to trade. They cannot just sit and hold in normal circumstances. They have to trade to fulfill redemption requests and for competitive reasons.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 03:35 - ID#153102)
The equity market and the New Paradigm are joined at the hip. When one stumbles, the other will fall. Until then, expect more of the same. Don't have a crystal ball with a clock in it.
Goodnight. Enjoyed the chat.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 03:37 - ID#339212)
@ Winston and Mozel

Mozel, you hit it right. On the average, mutual funds skim of the top about 2% of the investors' account balances. This 2% is the average of load and management fees. Imagine now the trillions of dollars invested in the market through mutual funds and what goes into their pockets!

No wonder why the mutual fund managers want the market up. More inflows in mutual funds and more money in their pockets. I know people with $500K accounts who pay 2% per year ( $10,000 ) for MANAGEMENT FEES!

After this, do you expect bad talk of the market in the news media?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 03:38 - ID#255284)
tra la la..
If you are still up, could you expand on your:

I don't see how we will ever see gold at such a price as $1,500 per oz. That would be tantamount to saying inflation is totally out of control.

Does this mean you believe the old saw " gold is a good hedge against inflation"?

allow me to join Myrmidon and mozel in commending not just your financial acumen, which is indeed acute, but in your commitment to understanding these somewhat rarified realms.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 03:39 - ID#339212)
@ Mozel, Winston
Good night, enjoyed it too.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 03:45 - ID#339212)
@ aurator

My friend Orator, I decided to delay my bed time for you.

I think that Mozel implied "in the near future". A US market collapse will put the banks in a tailspin, something similar to the Savings and Loans a few years ago. A bailout effort will be highly inflationary and then we may see some real movement in the metals.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 03:56 - ID#153102)
You just caught me on my way out.
My thought is this: gold at $1,500 would expose the fraud that there is no inflation to the mass mind. It's an unacceptable figure because the POG is believed by talking heads to be an inflation indicator. The economists', mostly Keynesian, debate on gold as a hedge is so laden with biased self-interest that I can't give it credence. I know gold and silver coin is an inflation preventer, those brief periods in European history when the continent was flooded with gold from the New World notwithstanding.
The Best, compadre and adieu for now.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 03:58 - ID#339212)
@ all on India's seasonal silver demand

The issue of seasonal demand from India was brought up on an earlier post. Something like wedding season etc.

Looking at the silver chart, I can not correlate such demands with silver prices.

Silver chart on:

(Sat Feb 21 1998 04:10 - ID#255284)
Bon mots...
Myrmidon & mozel

let us discuss this another time, then, what happens to gold in inflation cf deflation..


some scrapings from my book of bon mots....

"Adventure is the life of commerce, but caution, I had almost said timidity, is the life of banking..."
Walter Bagehot, 1873.

"Banks have done more injury to the religion, morality, tranquility, prosperity and even wealth of the nation than they can have done or ever will do good."
John Adams 1819

"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled."
JK Galbraith

"No warning can save a people determined to grow suddenly rich."
Lord Overstone 1796-1883 )

"Every one, even the richest and most munificent of men, pays much by cheque more light-heartedly than he pays a little in specie."
Max Beerbolm 1918

"Lately in a wreck of a Californian ship, one of the passengers fastened a belt about him with two hundred pounds of gold in it , with which he was found afterward at the bottom. Now, as he was sinking --- had he the gold? or had the gold him?"
John Ruskin 1860

"It is more easy to write on money than to obtain it; and those who gain it jest much at those who only know how to write about it."
Voltaire. 1694-1778

"Debts are not the kind of bond that can unite the world."
Herbert Feis 1930

"Bankers are bastards.
aurator 1998

(Sat Feb 21 1998 04:17 - ID#339212)
@ aurator

You should have put the last comment first!

"When one prints money is called counterfeiting, when government does it is called inflation".

(Sat Feb 21 1998 04:18 - ID#244360)
@Myrmidon re 1:00
I tend to agree with your skepticism of some supply/demand numbers, along with their "equalibrium" price predictions.
They seem to forget that if the CB's enter the fray selling, their data is meaningless. This has been the situation ( in perception, if not in reality ) for apx the past year. ( As we saw and contrary to some predictions, the $390 range at the beginning of last year wasn't support for a leg up at all. It was the all aboard signal for the shorts. Why this was we know all too well. ) Based on GFMS numbers they could conceivably to cover the production/demand deficit for something like 40 years. Under this potential supply overhang going long is simply a bet that the supply won't hit the market at or below your strike. At these prices I see it as a pretty safe bet.
If CB sales and perception of sales were definitively put to an end, their predictions may have an even chance of coming to pass. Like it or not, the CB's are the definitive factor in the gold markets. Their potential actions are only unwisely left out of any predictions about gold. ( It is often complained that CB have a manipulative affect on gold. This is true not only as a function of their actions, but of the existence, and therefore potential actions. )
So, assuming the CB sales have stopped, has the low gold price funneled trading ( non-CB ) gold into strong hands? Or is gold simply being swapped around by day-traders? The 77% percent drawdown at COMEX over the past year, year and a half, seems to suggest the former. This would very bullish for gold if.....well, you know.
The ramifications of short-covering, or other para-speculator fluctuations are a whole 'nother story.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 04:36 - ID#403159)
We are witnessing a bubble in equities that we won't see again for many years
The bad news that sends the market reeling down
will eventually come. It's just a matter of a little more
time and pop goes the bubble. The distribution has
already taken place. The public ( weak hands ) will
sell when the bad news comes. And the news will
have to be real bad. But it will get here. That will be
the day they finally realize they have been taken
along with everybody else. It will be the bear
market to remember for the next 30 years.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 04:42 - ID#339212)
@ Winston

One think is for sure, CBs don't want their gold to go to public hands. It took them years to amass it, why give it away now?

One possibility that enters one's mind is this:

What if some big, big depositors requested form regional banks to apply pressure to CBs in releasing gold into the market so that they can convert some of their huge paper stock market profits. This can be done by threatening large withdrawals from their banking accounts. Under this pressure, the regional banks demanded from the CBs the release of gold into the market and the smart money is buying it now. The Soros and Buffett like people who want to buy gold at the cheapest possible price.

This then explains it all. Smart money forcing CBs to drive the price now, they accumulate by maintaining low price through bad publicity. IMHO.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 04:43 - ID#255284)
Bye, Bye, Miss American Pie., Drove my Chevy to the levy but the levy was dry

On a bon mot roll:

The First Law of Economists: For every economist, there exists an equal and opposite economist.

The Second Law of Economists: They're both wrong.

pkm's existence theorem: for every finite set of answers there exists an infinite set of novel models

If all the economists were laid end to end

a ) it would be a good thing

b ) they would be more comfortable

c ) they would never reach conclusion

d ) all of the above

e ) none of the above

f ) they would point in different directions

Two economists are walking down the street. One sees a dollar lying on the sidewalk, and says so.

"Obviously not," says the other. "If there were, someone would have picked it up!"

We have 2 classes of forecasters: Those who don't know . . . and those who don't know they don't know.

- John Kenneth Galbraith

"Murphys law of economic policy": Economists have the least influence on policy where they know the most and are most agreed; they have the most influence on policy where they know the least and disagree most vehemently.

- Alan S. Blinder

An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today.

Laurence J. Peter

A study of economics usually reveals that the best time to buy anything is last year.

Marty Allen

If all economists were laid end to end they would not reach a conclusion.

George Bernard Shaw

Practical men ... are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. economist

John Maynard Keynes

If you put two economists in a room, you get two opinions, unless one of them is Lord Keynes, in which case you get three opinions.

Winston Churchill

Q: What do you get when you cross the Godfather with an economist?

A: An offer you can't understand.


Next week




Certainly the agreed perception is that the CB's Gold overhang is the sword of damocles over the Au market. However, bear in mind that the CBs themselves are not ( by and large ) independant of their sovereign governments. Usually, some kind of approval process is required, or if not prior approval, the decision to sell is subject to later scrutiny. The approval process may be as restrictive as Switzerland's requirement for a majority vote in a plebiscite, or as mild as rubber-stamp approval by Minister of Finance/ Treasury. Recall the scrutiny the media gave the Australian CB's decision to sell 180 ( ? ) tons of gold. The decision was roundly criticised in the local media and by the gold mining industry. This decision had a direct bearing on employment. Recall the Swiss horror at the thought of "their" gold beeing sold...

How real is this threatened sword of CB sales? I thought the situation was put very well yesterday here "No CB will sell now if other CB's are holding gold."

It has become, if you like, the obverse of "pass the parcel." Only this time, when the music stops, if you're not holding gold, you are out of the game. No CB wants to be without gold when the music stops. ( of course apart from the NZ Reserve Bank, which is full of fiscal iriots ) I think this CB coyness will prevent REAL -- as opposed to rumoured--CB sales.

Look also to that dead duck, the EMU, for credibility it will need to be gold-backed or at least enhanced by gold. The European CBs cannot now dis gold and expect to praise gold in 18 months. No, I think there has been a significant change of wind.

Opportunity ==== Op portunus ==== the wind that blows us home, to a safe harbour...

The day the music died===

Bye, bye, Miss American pie.....

(Sat Feb 21 1998 04:47 - ID#339212)
@ Heavy Hitter

News doesn't have to be real bad to burst the bubble. Just a little bit of negatives and when it turns down, it will be a self feeding collapse.

Good night all.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 04:56 - ID#403159)
When the debt comes tumbling down, no gold
will be found. Prices will increase 10 fold. Those
who wait, just like insurance will not collect. The
event that triggers gold will not let those willing
to buy in. Have your insurance policy in place
before the casualty. As in all insurance no claim
is paid after the fact.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 04:59 - ID#403159)
The longer the buuble goes the weaker the hands
become and the steeper the crash.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 05:09 - ID#255284)
Kuwait, Bubbles, Post-dated Cheques, who stepped in to the vacuum?
What news is needed?

This from the Kuwaiti Stock Market Bubble of 1980/81:

"At the peak of the boom, some stocks were advancing 100% or more an month...The capitalisation of the market went from $5 billion to about $100 billion...The basis of the bubble was a credit bubble based on the Kuwaiti financial custom to accept post-dated cheques.. Before I lose everyone's attention here, just remember that a post-dated cheque is still a promise to pay. The debate here over the past couple of days concerning N American Banking Practices, which are neither universal, nor efficient, highlights perhaps, the post-dated nature of each on of your N American financial transactions...Notice how settlement dates are being pushed out... where was I...Oh yes, Kuwait...Some hyperactive speculators were able to push out billions of dollars in postdated cheques to buy stocks that would increase in price before the date of the cheques.

Eight individuals, called the Cavaliers, floated a total of $55 billion on cheques ( no misprint ) , with the most energetic one, Jassim al-Mutawa, a Passport office employee still in his twenties passing of $14billion all by himself..

Finally, on August 20, 1982, a jittery holder of one of Jassim al-Mutawa's postdated cheques presented it for payment ahead of time --contrary to custom but comfortably to law..Not suprisingly, the passport officer could not pay.


the balloon exploded. Hundreds, then thousands of speculators went into default...the shares of the bubble, like Gulf Medical...plunged 98%, to a sixth of a dinar....


Now, I'd be interested to know what happened next. Which US banks stepped in to help this beleagured nation back to such prosperity that SH tried to steal it a few years ago...What i am asking is, which private interests are our fine young service men and women going to die for in the ME?

Last week drought. This week flood and lightning. the earthgods are displeased tonite.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 05:10 - ID#403159)
Warren Buffett tells all
If he's having a difficult time finding stocks
to buy, we are very close to a market mania
ending soon. Silver is a key indicator of
how he feels about the equities. I think
he himself is baffled on how long this mania
has already lasted. As with all manias, we will
witness a price explosion to the upside before
this market ends. We are not there yet. Unless
we get real ugly news. DOW 12000 is not unreasonable
for the final blow off. It will be quick. 12 months max.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 05:15 - ID#403159)
There's not going to be "no war".
80 % chance. Propaganda B.S.
is in the air. Politics as usual.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 05:19 - ID#39845)
Saturday 21 February, 1998 ( 8:56pm AEDT )

The authorities in New Zealand's largest city Auckland have
warned that the central business district faces a week without
power after the electricity grid failed.

An unprecedented "public safety announcement" advised
people living in the CBD to leave, as large areas were
plunged in darkness.

Suppliers Mercury Energy last week reported two of three
major power cables into the city had developed faults.

The authorities say while repair efforts are continuing around
the clock, the CBD is unlikely to have power for a week.

The area affected covers the waterfront and comprises most
of the business and commercial heart of Auckland.

Return to the World News Menu

plus from the Asia Pacific Region in Indonesian, Chinese and Tok Pisin

 1998 Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Sat Feb 21 21:00:00 1998 ( AEDT )

AEDT = Australian Eastern Daylight Time which is 11 hours ahead of UTC ( Greenwich Mean Time )

(Sat Feb 21 1998 05:30 - ID#39845)
GOLD Anal(how about that)isis, not conjunctavitis, goldslugitis!
Expect a 10-20 percent swing in gold before March 13. Only
a hunch but charts suggest its on the cards FWIIW.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 05:42 - ID#255284)
Power cuts, privatisation, heat waves. Dinars, Dirhams & Chicken as Dinner, Crusty- Chicken Standard
If you want me on privatisation of governmental services, I'll have to be "fresher" neither so windy nor so salty. If you are interested, let me know, as a foretaste, allow me to express the opinion that privatisation of most of the Govt services has been an immediate gift of cash, often huge amounts, to the purchaser, no gain to the consumer.. I shall wax ascerbic one day on this iniquity.
But you ask me about power to AUckland. OK, HEat wave. Skycrapers. Airconditioning placing a too high a load on the CBD. usually a lite user during office hours. There have been power black outs the last three days. I think that the so called Electricity planners should be shot. I also think this is a public scam to increase the price of power to domestic consumers... back track... ALL NZ's Hydro/Thermal/coal power stations were built with Tax payer money over the past 2 generations. These generators, together with the transmission and delivery systems are now being sold off to the rapacious corporates at firesale prices..... these power cuts are to pretend the need for capital expenditure thereby increasing our power charges...



"Gold and silver coins, as money, can be used to buy commodities and
services. They can be obtained by selling the commodities or services.

Their price will be established in relation to the goods they are
exchanged for. Quite naturally, at the beginning the most dominant
reference for price will be paper-money, for all the new Dinars and
Dirhams will have to be purchased with paper-money in the Mint. The
price will be first uniquely established by the value of the coins at the

The coins will start to circulate through the community and the Mint will
continue transforming more and more paper-money into Dinars and
Dirhams. At a certain point the amount of coins in circulation being
bought and sold by the public in exchange for other goods, will reach
such a level, that the amount of new coins coming from the Mint will be
marginal in relation to the total amount in circulation. At this point the
price of the Dinar will naturally be established in terms of a new set of
references of the goods for which it is mostly exchanged, just like the
price of paper-money is usually referred to certain common merchandise
and services. People will say one Dirham can buy a chicken. That is the
price of a Dirham.

OK, crusty, the loaf of bread didn't work how about a chicken? That sounds like a good standard, the chicken standard.

I can buy one plucked, gutted, cleaned, plastic bag-wrapped medium chicken ( family of 4 ) in the supermarket for about NZ $6.00

(Sat Feb 21 1998 05:52 - ID#228283)
Price explosion in Platinum????

Scanning the COMEX and NYMEX PM report, way at the bottom of the page was this tidbit,"The prospects for the resumtion of exports of PGMs were dealt a blow Friday when the State Duma ( lower house ) rejected the 1998 draft budget. On it's passage lies the fate of Russian PGM exports in 1998. Russia supplies about 60% of the world's palladium and 20% of it's platinum."
Does someone have the storage figures on these 2 PMs?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 05:54 - ID#39845)
viva la bra
Aurator, its funny how public company can black-out a city
for a week, but if it was gov co. supplying elec it would
be fixed on a sunday ( thats double time ) . Ho hum I guess this
company has half the workers of the old elec co and supplies
twice as many ferk-ups at twice the cost. BINGO Thats
privatisation doin an honest days work.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 05:58 - ID#255284)
same URL - More Chicken sh!t

THis chicken standard is looking even better, who needs a suit anyway?

A Dirham at the time of the Prophet, sall'allahu alaihi wa sallam, could
buy a chicken, and today a chicken could be bought in Britain for the
equivalent price of a Dirham. That means that one thousand four hundred
years later inflation is practically nil. There is no paper currency in the world that could offer such a record.


(Sat Feb 21 1998 06:07 - ID#228283)
We are served by

Commonwealth Edison, whose motto is,"Let 'em freeze in the dark."

Goodnight from the chilly midwest.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 06:20 - ID#26793)
Russian and Brazilian deficit news zaps the bond market

(Sat Feb 21 1998 06:32 - ID#255284)
7,000 metric tons, ALL AT ONCE, please, no shilly-shallying ALL AT ONCE
Umm, I was going to bed, when this caught my eye, umm, How many thousand tonnes again, Now why and who wants/needs/could afford/could not afford this little deal.. Is it a hoax? A hedging deal? you decide:

SELL> ( Temporary Member ) [Unknown]

Offer Dated: Wednesday, 11 February 1998 23:10:23

This offer is sanitized. Once the prospective Buyer has reviewed this offer
and agrees to the Seller's procedures, a Full Corporate Offer will be
issued by the seller ( Bullion Bank/Switzerland ) , directly to the buyer,
under penalty of perjury.
Sanitized Corporate Au Offer
PRODUCT: AU Metal ( Gold )
QUANTITY: 7,000 ( Seven Thousand ) Metric Tons, all at once.
PRICE: LME with discount of 4% Gross and 3% Net.
COMMISSION: 1% Commission to be split 50%/50% between buyers and sellers
1. Proof of funds and proof of product to be provide at table top meeting
in Bullion Bank ( Switzerland ) . Contract will executed at once.
2. Full ownership will be transferred to buyer.
3. Product must remain in the bank against a safekeeping receipt for one
year. Product must enter in a Fed Regulated high yield investment program
for one year. New Owner of the Product will receive a profit return of 150%
per annum; plus return of funds and possession of Product.
Please note that this transaction will be concluded on a first come first
serve basis.

Contact: ( Temporary Member )
URL: Not Listed


Umm, how does a new owner receive a profit of 150%? p.a.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 06:37 - ID#26793)
Does your plastic wrapped chicken come with entrails? They are useful for reading the future direction of gold.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 06:42 - ID#26793)
"The dollar is making a statement"

(Sat Feb 21 1998 06:48 - ID#255284)
Just ANOTHER beachbum, me....

Nope, entrails sold separately, it's the free-market way. Makes for lousy gravy. Just caught up & read your earlier post. Apo~loggies for the repeat. Away to count sheep..

baa baa baa, baa baa baramm

(Sat Feb 21 1998 06:48 - ID#255284)
Just ANOTHER beachbum, me....

Nope, entrails sold separately, it's the free-market way. Makes for lousy gravy. Just caught up & read your earlier post. Apo~loggies for the repeat. Away to count sheep..

baa baa baa, baa barator..

(Sat Feb 21 1998 07:37 - ID#238295)
stock market peak?
Heavy Hitter: Watch the small caps. They have lagged substantially these past few weeks. When these take off, expect the market to peak within 4-6 weeks. That was the pattern last fall and I expect a repeat in the near future.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 08:02 - ID#238295)
Andy Smith
A shift by Andy Smith?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 08:42 - ID#288295)
COMEX stocks 2/20




Total .......440,371 +3



Elligible ....61,657,275

Total ........93,436,638 + 1,859,588 !!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 08:56 - ID#329157)
Even the "manipulated" Reuters runs a "Stock Market divorced from Reality" story-----

Mr. Mick
(Sat Feb 21 1998 09:08 - ID#345321)
CJSI_A: The Market is a Mania
As described by various analysts, this cannot go on forever.

Mr. Mick
(Sat Feb 21 1998 09:15 - ID#345321)
ALL: Long term cycle description from Davidson and Rees-Mogg
in TGR:
"The Inflationary Stage

1. Some shock often a war, sets the process in motion by disturbing the system. It alters property rights, encourages monetary instability and raises real asset prices.

2. This leads to extraordinarily high rates of return in real assets, especially for debtors, who gain disproportionately, The high rates of return seem to justify massive new investment.

3. A credit binge ensues, as people borrow at accelerated rates to capture the extraordinary profits. Real estate, in particular, rises in value.

4. Institutions and contracts are adjusted to reflect the inflation. Debt maturities shorten. Nominal and real interest rates rise.

5. Nonetheless, a credit binge continues, as investors now accustomed to high rates of return calculate that they can continue to earn supernormal profits.

6 Financial as well as real assets are purchased on a basis of increasing leverage, and a bull market in stocks follows, though not het a drooling frenzy.

phase 2 to follow next post.............

Mr. Mick
(Sat Feb 21 1998 09:20 - ID#345321)
ALL: Then comes the Deflationary Stage.........
7. Profitability declines toward more normal levels as investment matures and new output is brought onto the market.

8. Commodity prices decline.

9. The farm economy goes into recession.

10. Interest rates fall, and as they do, hot money moves into financial assets, further stimulating the stock market.

11. As opportunities in the real economy subside, investment is concentrated on fiancial assets, leading to a stock market blow-off.

12. The boom is self-limiting because debt contracted at high interest rates compounds faster than income, eventually requiring that owners of leveraged assets liquefy their holdings, thus driving asset prices down.

13. Real estate sags.

14. Some trigger such as credit squeeze, a major bankruptcy, fraud, or simply the slowing of the real economy reveals the overvaluation of assets.

15. The stock market crashes, credit contraction intensifies, the money supply implodes, and depression ensues, with returns on previous investment falling to subnormal rates.

16. Real interest rates skyrocket, even as nominal interes rates fall, further reducing economic activity.

17. Unemployment skyrockets because real wage rates rise.

18. Wages and prices are cut as the system winds down.

19. Bingo . you have been in deflation for some time.

Sound familiar to anyone??????????????????

Mr. Mick
(Sat Feb 21 1998 09:22 - ID#345321)
gotta go now.......
be back later. Comments anyone????????

(Sat Feb 21 1998 09:25 - ID#348286)


Vernon Jordan kept the president personally informed of his efforts to find a job and a lawyer for Monica Lewinsky in the days after Lewinsky became a potentially damaging witness in the sexual misconduct case against Clinton, the NEW YORK TIMES reports in Saturday editions. A pre-release of the story, obtained Friday evening by the DRUDGE REPORT, is written by TIMES stars Jeff Gerth and John Broder. The duo builds the story based on information provided by "a lawyer who knows Jordan's version of events."

"Jordan has told friends and associates that he remains loyal to the president, but that loyalty may be undergoing its severest test," reports the TIMES.

At issue is how much Jordan knew about the president's relationship with Lewinsky. It's an account that will leave the White House with little room for wiggle.

The paper reveals: "Even though Jordan had not been told Lewinsky had been called as a witness [in the Paula Jones case], he had been aware that the president considered his help important."

"Jordan has complained to associates that neither the president nor his lawyers told him that Lewinsky had been named a potential witness in the [Paula] Jones lawsuit... [On Dec. 22] Jordan went to the White House to personally ask the president whether he had been involved in a sexual relationship with the former intern. Jordan remembers being told by the President: 'Never, no way.'"

"Armed with the President's denial, Jordan pushed ahead with efforts to find Lewinsky a job, including numerous meetings with her and phone calls to contacts in the business world."

Jordan's account presents a problem for Clinton because it would mean that Clinton was aware of the aid given to Lewinsky.




CBS NEWS hit total embarrassment Friday afternoon when anchor Dan Rather, in full pancake makeup, and Pentagon correspondent David Martin were caught rehearsing coverage of a U.S. bombing run on Iraq -- a rehearsal that was mistakenly beamed to television affiliates via satellite!

For 20 minutes, Rather could been seen on the satellite going through the motions of a bombing.

According to one viewer who witnessed the spectacle, Rather at one point described how it was not known how many casualties were caused by the bombings.

"It felt like WAG THE DOG," a senior news producer at a major-market affiliate tells the DRUDGE REPORT. "I bet the network is living in fear that someone on the receiving end of the transmission had tape rolling."

"It looked like a real broadcast of what was going on," Bill McClure, master control operator at WTAP-TV in Parkersburg, W.Va., an NBC affiliate, told the ASSOCIATED PRESS.

The network wanted to test new graphics and theme music that would be used to cover the story, according to CBS NEWS spokeswoman Kerri Weitzberg. No word on testing camera angles that would work best during February sweeps.

The report is moved when circumstances warrant
( c ) DRUDGE REPORT 1998

(Sat Feb 21 1998 09:47 - ID#329157)
Mr Mick:
Despite all the warning signs, it could take longer than anyone expects because it seems to me that it is ultimately part of the longest economic cycles, such as described by the Soviet economist Nikolai Dimitriyevitch Kondratyev, who was sent without trial to Siberia for describing heretical economics. His economic cycle describes an upwave of 25-30 years during which prices start to rise slowly along with economic activity, while prosperity increases until prices rise rapidly into boom time. Prices and/or inflation peak, and this leads into a recession. This peak is identified by Kondratyev as the start of the "downwave". The recession lasts for 8-10 years, and is longer and steeper than any "minor recession" that took place during the upwave. When the recession ends, everyone thinks the economic boom is back, economic recovery takes place, and this is called Secondary Prosperity. Growth is not as strong as in the primary upwave and after about 8 to 10 years the bubble bursts and the economy melts down into full blown depression ( "Secondary depression" ) .

The recent depression around 1992 is often cited as the Kondratyev cycle secondary depression. However, I suspect that it was only the primary depression which others cite to be 1973-1975. The latter period was however possibly merely a "left field" event precipitated by external forces, namely the oil crisis. The present stock market mania and Asian meltdown does not match up with the current period being one of primary prosperity in the Kondratyev cycle. The boom time of the late 1980s does not match up with the beginning of the secondary depression starting in 1983-4 and ending in the early 1990s.

Previous secondary peaks occurred at 1819, 1874, 1929, with gaps of 55 years between them, so if the secondary depression is ahead the gap must be an exceptional gap of 69 years or so. Looking for reasons to explain the different gap, of course the long cycles don't have to repeat exactly, and we have had technological advance uncomparable to previous cycles; the Federal Reserve system has been created with PPTs attempting to keep the markets going indefinitely, perhaps the cycle is reflected in Japan's economy rather than the US/UK/Canada economies, and we are to follow; and there is also the possibility of even longer wave cycles interfering with the timing. Hence as long waves pile up on each other, the resulting events may occur later than expected. ( I don't know if there is a plausible analogy, but in my observations of non-linear electronic circuits it is often seen that there is a delay caused by an overload level of a wave function, before the output of a circuit responds ) Longer wave cycles have also been proposed by Elliott wave theorists who point to fractal patterns, with the current time period being afflicted by the peak of a large-scale pattern.
The ultimate point is that frustrated goldbugs could be sitting around watching the DOW climb to unprecedented heights, for some time to come, but ultimately there will be a correction, it could be on a very large scale, and the prudent investor will have obtained at the very least an insurance position in physical assets such as gold. Whether the cause is gold for oil, new dinars, year 2000, scandals, OPEC quotas, war in the middle east, presidential scandals, derivatives, paper gold, etc. etc. if you wait until it happens it will be too late.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 09:58 - ID#410114)
placer says 300?
In 1980 the head of Texaco told everyone that oil would be $80/bbl by 1985. Wrong!!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 09:58 - ID#31868)
Asia financial plague is already here
and is building with each passing hour. There are 10s of billions of debt that are not being paid/serviced around the globe. The US companies will be reporting terrible news, this will be reported as "Asia is having a deeper effect than we anticipated."

The deflation engulfing the globe is terrifying. The flashpoint will occur when nobody sees it coming. Some will have decided to bail and then pat themselves on the back for seeing the "signs" in equities before others.

The rush into precious metals will be violent. My suggestion is buy now, wait and you will stand in line, and will be lucky to find any. There are trillions of dollars/paper call it what you will that will be looking for a home.

You can't put ten pounds of mud in a five pound sack.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 10:01 - ID#329157)
Mr. Mick: You are evidently well aware of long term economic cycles, as I see from your posts made while I was composing my last.

Had a nice afternoon off at the Bank of England Museum yesterday where they have a special exhibition of gold bars. Details at the World Gold Council website ( ) . My kids got nice Bank of England badges on their way out, and we got to take home a piece of gold ore, all for free. They even had a 400oz bar you could handle and try to pick up, through a hole in a special clear display cabinet. The exhibition is a collaboration over the last 4 years by over 100 manufacturers, with over 700 bars from 28 countries. The manufacturers are accredited with LBMA, COMEX, TOCOM, ZGM, and national exchanges/associations BM&F, CG&SES, and GTA. N M Rothschild & Sons are "the custodian and owner of the collection on behalf of the gold industry". The exhibition is sponsored by the World Gold Council. Included are 45 gold bar categories, including nuggets, Cast, Minted, Kilobars, Tola bars, Tael bars, biscuit bars, doughnut bars, boat bars, Baht bars ( holding up well against the paper version, I dare say ) , Hologram bars, Kinebars, Rainbow bars, Koban bars, Yin-Yang bars, Bone bar, gold cards ( NOT credit cards!! ) , Full colour bars, Cartoon bars, Bas-relief bar, Fine Art bars, etc.

I wonder if any of the G7 people in London for a meeting went to the gold bar exhibition.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 10:04 - ID#26669)
Ersel, your info on Pt/Pd was priceless
You know these Russians are going to figure out about paper derivitives and forward sales someday then we're all scr*wed. Sorry I don't have the figures you needed, but I did run a search using your key words and came up with some links I'd not had since my bookmark file crashed last month. It will take some time to search them.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 10:09 - ID#270224)
Mr. Mick
I think this whole thing will crash when people can't pay their bills, credit cards, margin accounts and so on.

In a free trade environment this can happen when American products can't compete with cheap foreign exports:

e.g. Fuji film vs. Kodak scenario in industry after industry.

As long as U.S. or European unemployment stay low people will continue to pour money into retirement plans everywhere with money going into stocks and bonds.

When there is a glut of overpriced products of any type chasing unemployed buyers the crash will occur. The most amazing thing to me is how the U.S. manages to run huge trade deficits year after year and sustain a high dollar. I guess people with cash see higher value in compound interest of financial assets ( bonds and treasury bills ) vs any other asset.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 10:19 - ID#26669)
CJS1__A a pun for you based on your gold bar post :^)
I hear the IMF is going to put out a limited edition paper bar in unlimited quantities. It will be called the Fubar. Ouch!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 10:21 - ID#348286)
Bloomberg, in a detailed interview, mentions that Munk is a Hungarian jew and concentration camp survivor, and quotes him as saying that with the current fundamentals Gold should be at 400 USD.
He confirms there is a supply deficit in Gold.
Also says that the slump is caused entirely by the european central bankers and their actions and policies toward Gold.
He is calling on them to finally come out and clear up the uncertainty and declare their intentions that they will not sell any more any time soon, at the ECU meeting next month.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 11:17 - ID#31868)
is the dog wagged by the tail of Europes Banks for far too long.

Eventually this will come to a time when there is a flashpoint, and either they will win and enslave everyone with worthless paper, or we will return to the Constitution and coined money.

Better done in the court of common law than on the battlefield. And certainly we can not look to the dirtbags in Washington for leadsership who continue to feed the IMF and the swine Camdesuss, who instead of being fed should have an apple placed in his mouth and served up for all decent and honest individuals to look upon with distaste, and left on the table to rot as the hollow meal that he and his ilk represent.

History repeats itself, buy gold.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 11:28 - ID#403159)
Excellent post. When things get ugly, it will
be like a thief in the night. You will not be
able to buy P.M.'s. , only at a very dear price.
If your not in you will be left out. And the amount
of gold is a joke, compared to trillions and trillions
of dollars floating around the globe. WB knows
whats coming eventually and I feel real good
knowing I have his company.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 11:33 - ID#403159)
tolerant Re9:58 post

(Sat Feb 21 1998 11:36 - ID#57232)
Brief Visit - going to work - xxxgate will bring down the US equity markets.
All: Now that former Gov Jim Guy Tucker is willing to tell all about Bill and Hillary, there are now three others who will do same:

Madison Bank Director Jim McDougal
Judge Hale
Tucker business partner Haley

Susan McDougal's testimony is now of now value, since they have most of the 'big' guys, with the exception of Webster Hubbell.

All these individuals need to do is allow Kenneth Starr to prove that Bill or Hillary plagiarized themselves, and its big time trouble for the Whitehouse. Monicagate is now the least of Bill and Hillaries problems.
I find this disappointing, as the office of the White House is being smeared, but it time to clear out the corruption.
My guess is that the Clinton insiders already know that the tide is turning, and are getting ready to bail out. Robert Rubin will be out soon, and Vernon Jordan probably leaked some of the stuff about himself -- like the conversations with Monica before the Starr investigation -- puts Vernon Jordan in a better light relative to the president. My guess is that Vernon Jordan knows how to land on his feet.

Does anyone know how long it took the Markets to teeter after Watergate unfolded big time in the press? Hillary indictments in a month or less.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 12:03 - ID#153102)
Tolerant1: Gold & SIlver Coin ! Independence ! The common law ! Freedom !

(Sat Feb 21 1998 12:17 - ID#287207)
MoreGold: Could we have a URL for the Munk/Barrick interview?

Barb Hughes
(Sat Feb 21 1998 12:24 - ID#20783)
For Independence & Control of your own Destiny

A bird in hand is always worth two in somebody else's bush!

Silver & Gold can be very trustworthy friends in times of desperation and turmoil.

Take care...Barb

(Sat Feb 21 1998 12:58 - ID#411331)
gold lease rates
Gold lease rates are down to 1-2% again, so expect another short
attack on the spot price of gold. I think the powers that be are
anticipating the coming bear market in equities, and are preparing
the ground to discredit what would normally be the only viable
alternative to the fall of the US buck.
Hi. I have enjoyed all your comments as a lurker, and now would
like contribute. I do have one question however. It seems to me
that owning gold mining shares has a great deal more leverage for
profit than owning physical metal. So why own the metal? ( Apart
from the fact that cashing in means you get back paper, it still
should provide a significant inflation hedge. )

(Sat Feb 21 1998 13:08 - ID#153102)
@rhody What price do you put on your privacy ?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 13:09 - ID#31868)
True enough, you get leverage with mining shares. However, I think that there are many additional, and noteworthy reasons to hold physical gold and silver.

One, as your forever emergency financial insurance. What you hold is yours, you can decide to stay, leave, or make arrangements for you and your loved ones. Gold and silver provide independence.

Two, in the event the dollar gets smashed into oblivion you have coins to make purchases from local merchants who may not wish to deal in wall paper issued by the Federal Reserve.

A solid mix might be 1/3 in physical, 1/3 in mining stocks, 1/3 in cash. Of course you can measure the increments to satisfy your particular needs and emotions.

There are many others here that can provide additional reasons.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 13:11 - ID#269191)
Interesting post on the first felon's legal problems. Don't you
think the Lewinsky case helps Starr with Whitewater because he
can use the Lewinsky evidence to show that Slick lied under oath?
At a minimum this would impeach Slick's testimony. As I recall the
weakness in Starr's case against Slick was that it was Slick's
unimpeached word against convicted felons McDougal and Hale.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 13:12 - ID#156161)
In a big equity market crash gold stocks are going to act just like the other equities, but would likely rebound sooner and with more vigor. Holding physical metal is, of course, the ultimate insurance against disaster.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 13:19 - ID#153102)
Gold & silver coins are not a market position; they are a political position in the things that are more valuable than any money or possession: privacy, independence, rights, freedom, just law, and morality. To borrow part of a phrse recently publicized: It's the Taxes, stupid.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 13:24 - ID#227290)
223 & Ersal's Comments


I saw where you commended Ersel on his info about pgms. But I couldn't find his message anywhere.
Could you tell me what time he posted about pgms?

The Preacher

John Disney__A
(Sat Feb 21 1998 13:49 - ID#24135)
.9999 pure featherless chicken ingots
For Salty
There is no such thing as a standard CHICKEN ... Chickens
are all different.. big ones .. little ones .. Perhaps we could
get somewhere with a price of CHICKEN per KILO. Or even per
TROY OZ. I will go to the super market tomorrow and check out the
chicken situation.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 13:50 - ID#153102)
Gold & silver coin: political power & economic insurance for the self-insured freeman.
Many mining shares are selling for less than NAV.
If we are actually acquiring ownership rights with paper, and I hope and trust we are, what a deal !!!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 13:53 - ID#31868)
I see the plans to bottle tequila in RSA have been squelched. I am proud to see that imports of the fine Mexican liquid increased. The gold in the ground is yours, leave the gold in the bottle to Mexico.

Voyeur Professor
(Sat Feb 21 1998 13:56 - ID#231101)
Andy Smith on gold and the EMU

Andy Smith, not fan of gold, paints an elaborate senario for a very limited role for gold in the European union. He says:

Suppose things go swimmingly: reserves are pooled in the ECB based on the current split of gold and foreign exchange held by members ( the share of gold in total reserves held by the ECB then falls out of the arithmetic of member capital shares - the basis of member contributions to the ECB reserve pool - and their existing reserve mix ) . At most the ECB will hold just over 2000 tonnes ( assuming, heroically, a full 50 billion ECU worth of total ECB reserves and, realistically ( ? ) , a 50% of market valuation of gold on ECB books ) . However the cake of 12760 tonnes held by the 11 probable EMU members is cut, an awful lot is left on the plate ( on top of the 1000+ tonnes in EU countries not entering EMU ) . At less than the gold reserves held now by Germany, France or Italy, wouldnt a 2000 tonne ECB leave market sentiment with a sinking feeling? At a quarter of the 8000+ tonnes of gold reserves held by the USA, a similar size economy as Euroland, might not the ECBs gold-lite reserve mix re-emphasise the excess ballast held by the US Treasury?

Such a view sees the remaining gold holdings in individual European central banks as a commodity rather than a monetary hedge. Further, Smith believes once the EMU establishes its minimal gold backing ( estimated to be 5% ) , big gold holders like the U.S., Germany, France, and Switzerland will soon sell their excessively large reserves.

Does this view auger badly for gold in the long run? Or should questions be raised about Smith's disregard of a weak EURO that, without substantial gold reserves, will not successfully compete with the U.S. dollar? How can the Euro-dollar be regarded as an alternative currency to treasuries if it promises to be a paper tiger?

Any comments?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 13:58 - ID#156161)
You're correct; look at US Gold Shares, it has become a virtual penny stock of some of the best mines on earth, although I find the exposure to South African politics disturbing.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 14:09 - ID#347457)
@Oris and Gold (hockey gold that is :-)
Oris my bro, there we go ... just like in old times ... Russia against Czechs. Ive got my supply of beer and looking forward to this night gold battle. Sorry my friends in Canada. When it comes to Gold, Czechs take no prisoners ;- ) . Now, I wish the same rule applied to my investment in gold :- )

(Sat Feb 21 1998 14:16 - ID#243180)
How do u get your creditors to accept a transaction from your e-gold account, such as, mortgage, utilities, etc... ?


(Sat Feb 21 1998 14:17 - ID#156161)
Voyeur Professor
Unless the Eurolanders have some delightful surprise in store for us, their currency will be as weak as their political union. If they were to come forth with a currency strongly backed by silver and gold I think that they would become economically dominant and power would flow to them. However, to me, such a course of events seems too progressive for them.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 14:23 - ID#156161)
Czechs have the golden golie.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 14:27 - ID#31868)
At present I utilize it as a method of savings. The various people and entities that have accounts can transact with each other. Currently I seek to build holdings, not spend. The Federal Reserve wallpaper still spends. I have zero debt and no rent. Buy gold and silver and hold is my motto.

The system is growing. Eventually I think you will find various entities will cater to e-gold and you will then be able to handle any and all transactions world wide.

Remember it is strictly an international system of payments and has nothing to do with banking. The gold is yours, period. Once more and more people figure out that gold and silver are the only trustworthy methods of payment the system will grow. ( platinum and palladium available as well )

I suggest you write to and fire away all manner of questions.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 14:32 - ID#31868)
He is also a great actor.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 14:33 - ID#20137)
Would someone post the prices for Dinars and Dirihams. I am just wondering if they have much of a premium built in.
Thanks in advance.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 14:39 - ID#266105)
@Saturday in beautiful Coos Bay

Interesting things to read/listen. Got stuff to do here.
Mr. Disney, I suggest you inquire of your caretaker ( s )
to reexamine your medication regimen.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 14:46 - ID#224363)
Sit back and be patient...Gold will rise because
1. The creation of a 'European' currency to rival the power of the $US
will require:

a ) substancial gold backing ( shall we guess 15% ? )
b ) many months of watchful eyes before it is believable
c ) a strong european market

2. The $US was not always mighty and in the grand cycle of change, it will lose its lustre over time ( months or perhaps years ? ) . After all the world
is a large and ever-changing place

3. Impatient central banks have sold gold. They like the quick buck
investors in the stock markets have forgotten that fortunes rise
and fall. Patient central banks have not.

4. Gold will rise with interest rates and will not rise until mutual fund
investment drops off substancially.

5. A very hard lesson will be required to stimulate gold. Ask a 60 year
old if gold is valuable. Ask a 40 year old if gold is valuable. Ask a 20 year old if gold is valuable. Ask a third world citizen. Ask a first world citizen.

6. Change is evolutionary or revolutionary. Either is possible but one is far more likely.

Be patient...

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 14:50 - ID#403159)
Gold will rise, but only in the face of a
disaster. When the bad news comes
( paper ) will be sold off in huge proportions
because it is already inflated. Gold on the
other hand is cheap relative to paper. W.B.
knows something is heading down the pipeline
coming this way. Stay tuned.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 14:53 - ID#31868)
excerpt from update by J. Taylor
The link below takes you to this info, just click on update, its free. The rest is up to you.

According to an article written on Friday by John Crudle, Chase Manahttan, Citibank and J.P. Morgan are beginning to face some of their derivative positions in Asia. It seems as though the utility companies in Indonesia for example are unable to make good on their floating rate loan swaps with Citibank because of the enormous drop in the value of the Rupah. In Korea, the Boram Bank has JP Morgan on the hook for perhaps between $50 and $150 million and J.P. Morgan is rumored to be hurting from a derivatives trade with Shinsegi Investment of Korea which could amount to another $50 million to $100 million. While the reasons given for bailouts of these countries is that it will save the international monetary system, the real driving force in my view are large corporate interests that are more influential in the political process than during any time in the last 50 years.

In the long run, it is doubtful that these bailouts work. Evidence is in the repeated problems of Mexico. It seems like only yesterday when we provided enormous assistance to Mexico and last week rumors began to circulate that Mexico is on its way toward another disaster. IF EVER THERE WERE A TIME TO REDUCE YOUR HOLDINGS IN STOCKS AND PURCHASE GOLD BULLION AND GOLD SHARES IT IS NOW!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:10 - ID#266105)

There was some jabber of bonds/market earlier. I find the bond
market an enormous, arcane area, any every gleaned understanding
becoming a misunderstanding upon any and every further understanding.

Anyways, James Grant made the remembered point once that, between
Federal, state, municipality issuances, and the quasi-public entities,
Sallie, Ginnie, Fannie, etc. ( and their implicit though not legally
'explicit' subsidy of 'backing/insurance' ) ...that the numbers show
our bond market in terms of issuance is in majority fashion a
'state' arena. I found that interesting, disturbing, and new
to me.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:11 - ID#28585)



Amazing Grace, how sweet Thou are...
That saved a wretch like me....
I once was lost but now I'm found
Was blind but now I can see...

Well I once believed the Dow would fall..
I once believed there would be...
A Day of Reckoning in the U.S. dollar...
A financial catastrophe

For years I've believed in gold and silver...
Shunned paper made from a tree
I always felt precious metals would climb
And make me rich as a king..

And now I know deep in my heart
PM's aren't what they're cracked up to be
You can make so much more in the Standard & Poor
So I've gone long on the Dow, you see.

Amazing Grace, how sweet thou are
That saved a wretch like me
I once was lost but now I'm found
Was blind but now I can see.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:14 - ID#403159)
IMF and the US cannot bailout the world.
The world is bankrupt. Gold will be the
only way to survive financially. As Another
said governments and people will all rush
in to buy gold to save themselves from
financial ruin. Where is all the gold going
to come from with trillions of dollars rushing
in. Hoover Dam trying to get through a
garden hose. Gold will be revalued into
the stratosphere.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:15 - ID#340459)
@tolerant1, What do you think, With War, US Presidency Scandals, SEAsian currency collapse(s) etc.
Gold has not behaved as anticipated, What is your vision for Gold in next 4 to 6 weeks. It seems to be bouncing between 297-302 through out the crises, What do envision will jump start the price. I am negative in PM Mutuals but doing well with Pegasus recently. Placer Dome was bad all through last year though specially on margin. Margin investments are inherantly bad. Let's hear your near term forecast on POG...

(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:22 - ID#340459)
@VP Post:13:56, Brother your post very negative future for Gold, I hope Andy Smith is wrong about
EMU policy..

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:22 - ID#403159)
The DOW is good and GOLD has been bad.
But GOLD will rise one day just as the GREAT

I can't wait........ I just can't wait..........

(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:23 - ID#31868)
Heavy Hitter
I pity people that do not hold gold and silver. How can the US bail anyone out, they are broke and the rest of the world knows it, hell, they own our debt. Does the Coward Elect instill confidence in you?

And the IMF, I think we all know how I feel about that.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:27 - ID#28585)
The Power of the Dow has seized me,'s got me speaking in tongues...speaking in the tongues of Godly awe..coomalakaacoomalakaa gummabubbadooba....

Come and join me brother...cast away all your heathen Golden beliefs...let us break apart this sacred Golden Calf and lead the Israelites to their righteous destiny.

Believe in the Holy Paper Bull....believe, my brother...BELIEVE!!!!


Voyeur Professor
(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:28 - ID#231101)
Playing the devil's advocate

PMF and Forklift

Thank you for your responses to my query. I, too, agree that the paper worshipers will choose an easy route in establishing the Euro-dollar, and that the Euro will prove weak and no challenge to the dollar. But wont that leave the dollar unchallenged as a "flight to safety" vehicle? What will ultimately shake the dollars hegemony? And, yes, I agree also that gold investors must be patient, but many of us have been invested long for sometime now and have witnessed one of the great collapses in any investment category. So I return to my question: "What will undermine the dollar?" American technology and business leadership has a considerable head-start on the rest of the world. Investment flows here because of the stability of our market. Will our very dominance cause rebellion? Given the darwinian nature of market competition, dont U.S. conglomerates have an upper hand, and wont that dominance continue to depress gold?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:31 - ID#340459)
@tolerant1, The World still stupidly runs after Uncle Sam greenbacks, they see US through Hollywood
and Media supplied vision. If Indonesia tells IMF to shove it, It will rattle the cages of man eater's of the world. Japs have last all balls by too much MTV. Also, if Chinese go for gold then it will be spectacular.
Atleast in Olympics, They still value Gold, Silver and Bronze...

(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:33 - ID#26793)
@A. Goose
I had wondered about the prices on the gold dinar and picked up a copy of Coin World, issue of 23 February. There is no mention of that coin in any of the ads.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:39 - ID#403159)
I fully agree. It is the lie of all time. W.B. knows
the direction we are heading and is a very frugal
investor. I'm happy knowing I have his company
being in the PM's. As for the public, their all a
bunch of sheep. Don't want their company.
The public is the last ones to get in and the
last ones out. The general public ( I've dealt with
them all my life ) are always the last ones to discover
El Dorado. That's why W.B. has moved into silver.
In the meanwhile the sheep are being fed equities.
People haven't changed and neither has the madness
of crowds. Let them all get sheared. Long term investors
my ass. When they can't pay their bills, we'll you know
what's next. SELL SELL SELL.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:41 - ID#31868)
Let it be far and away for me not to jump at the opportunity to stick my foot in my mouth and hope it jams at the knee. I listen to all of the folks that follow charts and such, market moves, etc.

I think we are in a very deadly financial arena. Asia is in a full blown depression, Japan is braindead and there is the distinct possibility that the prediction from The Great Reckoning may occur, the military overthrow of the government there.

Europe is a feudalistic basket-case, they can't decide who gets to rob the people next, or what the latest social fashion through which it shall be accomplished is to be used.

The Middle East, well, what has changed there in thousands of years.

The rest of the world, seems to be in tow and waiting like a deer in the headlights with the exception of China and India, although there is much turmoil and revolution in the air there as there is in what used to be the Soviet Disunion.

And now America, that shining example on a hill of what can be done without Kings and Queens. The government is run by crooks, at best the Coward Elect and his wife/handler are deadmeat as the feeding frenzy increases. They have no authority anymore and Envirowhore Gore and his PattyPurity wife are no better. They are milktoast with more milk than toast and therefore less substance.

I say throw all the above in a blender and the price of gold will move up. I am looking at the next 4 to 8 weeks. Many things can and will occur during that time. Depending on the severity of the news from each of the various sectors will determine how high the metals go.

However, when it hits the undertow will be devastating. Look how fast the wonder-tiger economies of Asia changed. Poof.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:42 - ID#22956)
some of you guys/gals need to go outside and get the stink blown offa ya....pee-U it stinks in here.....go gold.
away...from here

Voyeur Professor
(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:43 - ID#231101)
Apologies and dilemmas!


A mea culpa on my part for misconstruing your point about a strong Euro-dollar, buttressed by 15% gold backing. If, however, you are correct in your view, what do you say to Andy Smith's argument that even 15% would not represent a sizeable ammount of gold when translated into annual tonnage ( about 6000 tons per year held as reserve ) ? The separate European CB's still would be free to trade from their reserves, not to mention the sizeable U.S. reserve that would no longer prove necessary if the EMU can boot-up a strong currency with only 15%. Forgive my indulgence in dilemma--a professional habit of mine when I lecture students--but, if the EURO proves strong without substantial gold holdings, why should any other CB hold gold as a monetary stabilizer?

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:45 - ID#403159)
Get ahold of yourself. This month is almost
over and gold is waking up from the winter
hibernation. I still hanging on to the goose
that going to lay those golden eggs.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:49 - ID#28585)
Glory be, brother...Glory be to the Dow....Hallelujah...Hallelujah...

I feel a Holy Roller coming, brother...Cooomalaakacoomalaakagummabubbadooba.

There'll be Holy Truth a' coming, brother...Holy, holy, holy ....

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:50 - ID#403159)
Anyone who shorts gold should be
out of here. Now get. Gold is good.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:51 - ID#26793)
@Voyeur Professor
There are several events that will weaken the dollar. The first event will be a collapse of the stock market. As margined investors and those who have taken second mortgages to play the market lose their homes it will be a government obligation to pay creditors on those defaults as 90%? of the homes are now using government guaranteed mortgages.

The second event is government guarantees for import-export loans to Asian and other countries. As those purchasers default it becomes a government obligation to pay the U.S. corporation.

Thirdly, during a general business downturn/depression Small Business Loans will go into default; another government obligation.

Fourthly, unemployment insurance, defaulted student loans, veterans benefits etc. all increase the obligation of the government during hard times.

As investors see government obligations increasing, at the same time that tax revenues are decreasing, pressure is put on the dollar and bonds as the owners of these instruments wonder how the government will deal with the shortfall.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:55 - ID#340459)
All wealth is a value based on current perception, The rest of world is like a bunch of train cars
attached to US Locomotive running on DOW and Treasuries paper, and the driving seat is sealed shut to common hard working folks with contrarian views. US Dollar is sealed by a pinnacle and the star on it's back and it's control on other continents is firm. There are 4 scenarios IMHO that would propel the PM,s
( a ) Global Mistrust of USA's Financial and currency soundness
( b ) Global mistrust of USA fairness in Foreign Policy wherein more and more Nation's fear placing wealth ( Like US confiscation of Billion of Dollars entrusted by Shah of Iran, Iraqi assets frozen after Saddam's fallout as western ally where he performed dutifully by 10 yr war with Iran, Also low blow's and sudden stopage of US backing for Marcos, Noriega etc.. The regime's are more wary of USA's global integrity
( c ) Sudden rise of Oil prices due to switch of guard's in persian gulf
( d ) IMF's intentions are questioned as never before in it's 50 years of usury

That is my read of things

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 15:55 - ID#403159)
Poor "Farfel" is having a nervous breakdown
Here come the men in the white suits.
Another gold bug has been squashed.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:02 - ID#403159)
You couldn't give stocks away. Hmm, lets
see. What are they now saying about gold.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:03 - ID#57232)
The future of gold -- dimly: Fiat currencies, Crises, Cycles
Voyeur Professor, All:
What variables are likely to be in the gold equation?
1 ) Gold and 'fiat' currencies -- Gold backed currencies will probably prevail in less than two years: I agree with the assessment that the EURO is likely to be weak relative to the US dollar. This is in part due to the almost obsessive desire to put the EURO on line with minimal inflation, at a time that Germany and France have recessions and record unemployment.
In my opinion, the dollar is as strong as it will ever be, unless a european meltdown occurs when the wave of SEAsian debt passes over them. The US might again be the last equity asset refuge, as it was during the 1925 - 1929 period.
The only regions of the world that are likely to have strong currencies will be where the SEAsian currency crisis wave has already passed. We hear about the Dinar in Turkey, and a new currency basket in Indonesia. Also -- Japan is serious about setting up an Asia-only currency.
I, SDRer and perhaps some other Kitcoites think the real paradigm shift will come from Asia -- via a gold-backed Asian currency. When that happens, the fiat currencies such as the dollar and EURO will weaken, and the US dollar price of gold will rise significantly.

So -- Gresham's law again, right -- SDRer?

2 ) Gold and crises
I think the most likely cause of the equity market demise will be the xxxgates, since the investigations are heating up: Hillary and Bill will at the least be accused of perjury. Other crises are harder to predict, such as disruption of the oil supply, Russian revolution, EURO crisis, etc.

3 ) Gold and Cycles: Several studies of gold/gold stock price cycles have been summarized on Kitco, and the consensus is that major gold bears last for about 2 years -- on average. Also - given that 8000 tonnes of gold are already loaned, with a real possibility of defaults by a number of sources -- gold fundamentals are bullish. F Veneroso's equilbrium gold price is $600/oz -- this would lead to a very nice profit in gold stocks when the CB's let go.

With gold investment -- patience is a virtue.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:03 - ID#26793)
Gold and the Euro currency
Why hope for 15% gold backing? It should be 100% gold backing with full exchangeability by any holder on demand. Anything less is just a continuation of all the problems since 1933.

The only way that that message is going to hit home is after a total collapse. We are in total collapse mode now and things are moving swiftly.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:03 - ID#28585)
Come on, brother...find yourself a Wall Street Journal, your hand upon the quotes page...feel the power now...feel the Power of the Dow...

Do you feel it, brother? It's a Holy Power a coming at ya, brother....holy, holy, holy...

Now, take all your gold, brother...and throw it out your window...just throw it all away. You see how easy that is??? Throw the gold devil out that window right now!

You see how much better you're feeling?

That's DOW POWER, brother....DOW POWER!!!


(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:06 - ID#270227)
Reply to 2BRO2B ? How about some GOLD 1A :-)]]]
Here is a little something from Alan Greenspan before he was Fed Chairman.....
It is classic Ayn Rand .....How soon we FORGET.
-Alan Greenspan wrote in 1966:

"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the 'hidden confiscation'of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands
as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard."

And a short comment to "mankind":
Ya cannot consume more than ya produce.
Have a nice day.....

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:08 - ID#26793)
Steven Hanke; The Currency Doctor

Lurker 777
(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:09 - ID#317247)
Phillies are the best bullion coin made!
This might rub some people here the wrong way but I need some help in determining my next purchase. As we all know, there are no fiat currencies 100% backed and exchangeable for Gold but there are Gold bullion coins 100% backed and exchangeable for fiat currencies like Maples/$50Can., Eagles/$50US and the Philharmonic/2000 Shillings ( $160US ) . If Gold became worthless you can cash the Philharmonics in for 2000 Austrian Shillings and since 1996 the exchange rate has been between $150. and $200. US. The Austrian Phillharmonic Gold bullion coins are 999.9% pure Gold bullion coins and have no copper alloy like the Eagles and Krugerrands. Also, as RJ pointed out there are NO reporting laws when you sell or buy this coin unlike other bullion coins. It is the most popular coin in the world and is very liquid. Why would anyone buy any other bullion coin?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:13 - ID#57232)
Gold and EURO -- logging off -- heading home
Donald: Our posts are synchronized! Great minds think alike, I guess!
Anything about the Europeans wanting to raid our coffers for the money they will never get from SEAsia? I gather AG was conveniently indisposed -- perhaps he is giving them the message that the cupboard is bare, and they may need to look elsewhere.
I think we do need to make sure that there are no secret raids on the dollar. I don't want to wake up one day and find that our debt ceiling just went up $1 trillion, unannounced.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:14 - ID#342376)
I still take a psychological viewpoint of what will happen...
As the news begins to sink in that what's coming is not just a simple correction but the beggining of a long bear market in stocks, all these newer investors that LOVE trading on the internet and LOVE their 30% returns will begin to look for a Bull Market in SOMETHING. I believe that something will be Gold and Gold Mining Stocks. All Gold needs is the smallest push upwards as markets sink and people will jump on the new Bandwagon. A Bull Market in Gold will be created if for no other reason than to have a place where investors can make money. After all, isn't that why the DOW has gone as far as it has? Any comments?

Voyeur Professor
(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:19 - ID#231101)
Debating gold's prospects


Your analysis was prompt and admirable. Understand, rather than play cheerleader for gold, I want to identify the very arguments that gold investors must rebut. So, as you say, the "collapse" will trigger massive debt problems. Fine. But, what if a "collapse" simply does not happen? Surely, we can count on a correction, but what ineluctable engine of economic fatalism will make a "collapse" certain. I remember asking my broker in September 1995 where I should invest. He talked of an imminent "collapse" with a Dow at 5600. Surely you recognize the danger of investing by so-called "post-hoc ergo propter hoc" assumptions ( after this therefore because of it ) . If the market reaches an all-time high there must be a resulting collapse because it happened in the past. Anyway, I am not trying to present my belief that gold will soon see its day again ( many here have a similar "belief." Instead, I wish to predicate an analysis that may repudiate my belief. I believe the Dow outrageously over-valued, investors possessed of pollyanna notions of double -digit, annual yields, all caused by the lotus-land illusions of new-paradigm thinking. But, at present, that paradigm must be encountered with logic, not derision.

Voyeur Professor
(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:22 - ID#231101)
Signing off with thanks

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:22 - ID#340459)
@crazytimes, I concur with your view, everybody has been hooked to betting now and if they sense
they have money on the wrong horse, They will switch and this herd of bulls would take Gold to new high's of it's illustrious History.
Shake..Rattle and Roll.........

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:23 - ID#410198)
Lurker77 Getting some bad info,be carefull out there.

First if you think gold is worth $160.00 why buy it now,second pureity has nothing to do with the price gold is valued in oz.More important ALL Bullion PURCHASES ARE REPORTABLE.,a dealer has to report all cash purchases buy/sell for a calender year per client,this is the law in USA I don't where RJ is from

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:24 - ID#318118)
POG History
Can someone please provide an on-line source for the price of gold
from the mid 1920's through the depression.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:27 - ID#156161)
tolerant1 and Voyeur Professor
tolerant1's 15:41 posting states the situation as it appears to me from the US. Now what if the US was to back the dollar with gold and silver again? We would be invincible. The Constitution spells it out and the words and thoughts of the founding fathers are clear on the matter; so the foundation is there for a winning case to be made. It just seems too impossible to pull off given the political and social climate. Maybe it all has to crash down to zero before we can rebuild it all, but if that were the case, then I would like to see a new regional power composed of Eastern Canada and the New England states.

Voyeur Professor
(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:27 - ID#231101)

Thank you to JTF, Donald-A, and crazytimes:

And, crazytimes, you may have struck gold, metaphorically and I hope literally. If the market is fundamentally irrationally driven by a lunatic psychology; then, gold will become the investing hula-hoop of the late 90's!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:28 - ID#228283)
Repost of my 05:52 for comments....

Scanning the Comex and Nymex PM report , way at the bottom of the page was this tidbit," The prospects for the resumption of exports of PGMs were dealt a blow Friday when the state Duma ( lower house ) rejected the 1998 draft budget. On it's passage lies the fate of Russian PGM exports in 1998. Russia supplies about 60% of the world's palladium and 20% of it's platinum."
Question #1...Does someone have the storage figures on these two PMs?
Question #2...Does this mean we are about to see an explosion to the upside?
Question #3..Know any good stocks or a good,reliable place to buy platinum coins?

Mr. Mick
(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:29 - ID#345321)
KO, CJS1_A: Just got back...............
and I agree with both of you. Yes, those that are out of stocks at the moment may forgo some profits in the short run, but the risk of losing everything when the stuff hits the fan is also pretty high, should one get stuck in paper when the market goes sour.
CJS1_A - I don't know if the current K wave cycle can be compared to electronic circuits, it may be a good comparison, but certainly fractals are naturally occurring cycles that are NOT influenced by man in any way, shape or form, so they also may not be that analagous to what we are seeing in the current stock market cycle.
Just a little food for thought....................

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:33 - ID#329157)
Heavy Hitter 16:02: If Gold traded places with the DOW....
Business Week's "The Death of Equities" ( courtesy of Fiend's SuperBear page ) :

The deck of tarot cards, the mediaeval pack that was as much an aide to memory training as it was a fortune-telling prop, includes the Wheel of Fortune as one of its cards. The wheel symbolises the cycles of nature... the seasons which follow each other in turn, then repeat; the alternation of war and peace... the human responses to shock- fear, denial, anger, acceptance; the cycles of business: tangible assets, and investment in real productive business, then stocks and shares and investment in financial instruments while good productive industry is starved of investment... the wheel, symbol of India's Congress party, a powerful archetype as we know how long the wheel has been in use in human existence... Stocks Up, Gold Down! Stocks Down, Gold Up! We need only reflect on how long Stocks have been Up and Gold has been down, to consider what lies ahead....

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:34 - ID#340459)
@Voyeur Professor, People are hooked to 25-30% annual rate while GNP/GDP is only 2-3%. It is a
Gambling situation where news, mergers, hostile attacks etc. make the gamblers rich and poor.
Even Nature is fed up with our work as we witness current globally uncertain inclement climate with increased volatility. So is the current fluidity of global capital that flows like mercury through digital wires chasing the biggest dream or nightmare destined by our percieved prudence in sensing this weather pattern to predict the next change in economic clime...

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:35 - ID#31868)
The beast in Washington has got to be killed. More power to the states and coalitions of them.

Mr. Mick
(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:38 - ID#345321)
Tolerant1: We already had one civil war over this issue...........
the good side lost. Do we have to go through it again? I hope not.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:40 - ID#26793)
Similarities to Britain's loss of gold standard in 1929 and Asian crisis now

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:41 - ID#22956)
Heavy Hitter
Thanks. You have confirmed my suspicions.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:43 - ID#31868)
Mr. Mick
There won't be a civil war, just us - US against the District of Columbia.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:43 - ID#376309)
lurker 777
I think that time is running out for betting on the short side.
John D.- How about that. That counts as a bullish comment comment doesn't it??

Mr. Mick
(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:46 - ID#345321)
Tol: Love your sense of humor.............
have to go now. Catch up with you all later.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:52 - ID#255284)
40 and 20 blackbirds baked in a pie..
Thanks for your post on the Opening of the Gold Exhibition by young ( in comprehension ) Eddie George. Here is what he was saying a few months ago:

03:09 p.m Nov 24, 1997 Eastern
LONDON, Nov 24 ( Reuters ) - Gold
prices edged lower on Monday afternoon
after Bank of England Governor Eddie
George said he would be ``surprised'' if
the European Central Bank ( ECB ) held
large stocks of the metal.

George was speaking to the European
Parliament's Monetary Affairs
Subcommittee in Brussels.
He said, ``I would be surprised if that
decision involved holding large quantities
of gold because whereas gold used to be
seen as ( a good asset... ) it's now seen as
the bottom of the pile,'' he said,


I guess opening the exhibition may be a required diet of humble pie, at the Rothschild's table, no less.

Unfortunately I am not planning on being in London until July..

Your comments on Kondratieff echo some I made in the wee small hours at kitco a few weeks back. I am aware of extensions of Kondratieff's work done on wheat prices back to the 13 century, do you know of any similar work done on "Eastern" commodities, say rice? I have wondered whether the K waves/cycles if they exist in the E follow the same periodicity as the Euro K wave, and whether they are in phase with each other.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:53 - ID#329157)
tsclaw 16:24
US Gold Prices, 1792-1997

(Sat Feb 21 1998 16:55 - ID#26793)
New high in FTSE 100 was fueled by derivatives, not by genuine share buying

Lurker 777
(Sat Feb 21 1998 17:01 - ID#317247)
RE: robnoel__A ( Lurker77 Getting some bad info,be carefull out there. ) ID#410198:

Robnoel:First if you think gold is worth $160.00 why buy it now
777:I believe Gold is worth what someone will pay me for it and it is very undervalued currently.

Robnoel:,second pureity has nothing to do with the price gold is valued in oz.
777:I think most people around the world would rather own Pure 999.9% 24 kt. Gold coins than alloy mixed copper 22kt. coins that sell at a discount to the coin weight. The standard at Comex is 995% or better pure Gold but most Bars are 999%.

Robnoel:More important ALL Bullion PURCHASES ARE REPORTABLE.,a dealer has to report all cash purchases buy/sell for a calender year per client,this is the law in USA I don't where RJ is from
777:RJ works for the Monex the largest Bullion dealer. Cash purchases over $10,000. are reportable but not Bullion Purchases or sells if you own the right coins.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 17:02 - ID#31868)
That thar price a gold sure looks steady ceptin when them real smart folks got involved.

Lurker 777
(Sat Feb 21 1998 17:10 - ID#317247)
My shorts are getting tight.
Glenn I know! I am betting that we will test $285. by 3/13/98.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 17:11 - ID#329157)
aurator 16:52
" you know of any similar work done on "Eastern" commodities, say rice?..."
I don't know... I seem to remember reading something about world Kondratyev cycles existing out-of-phase in areas that are isolated, like China, but a tendency towards synchronisation when the stuff hits the fan, like in 1929...

(Sat Feb 21 1998 17:11 - ID#225273)
Ersal repost
Thanks for reposting that info. I asked about it earlier in the day.

For pgm-producing stocks, you might look at:
Stillwater Mining ( SWC:AMEX ) . It's a major and produces a lot of the metals.
Also, another small producer that has new management ( capable fellow ) and is a bona fide turnaround situation is North American Palladium, NLPDC:NASDAQ ) they produce over 50,000 ounces of palladium and about 4,000 ounces of platinum in Canada. Have produced more in the past and I think new management can get them back up to previous levels -- 75,000 ounces palladium and 7,500 ounces platinum. There's also a little gold produced in the mix. You might take a look.

The Preacher

(Sat Feb 21 1998 17:11 - ID#228283)

goodnight from the chilly Midwest..Go Pt & Pd and drag my gold up witcha!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 17:21 - ID#26793)
@Voyeur Professor
I think that the collapse of the Dow, and stocks in general, has already started and that the cause is the Asian depression. As the averages hit new highs during the past week individual issues took serious losses. Those issues that reported or warned of lower earnings due to Asian problems took the lead down. As new companies report losses during the 1st quarter I expect a trend to become apparent. Next, companies not doing business directly in Asia but dealing with other companies that do, will be the next victims as their earnings disappoint. The euphoria is so great that it may take several weak quarters to shake out the dipsters but it seems that we are over the Dow hump.

During the last two weeks the Dow/Gold Ratio failed to confirm several ( six? ) new Dow highs. It came to within a tiny fraction, and of course could do it next week, but right now I am encouraged by that non-confirmation.

Barb Hughes
(Sat Feb 21 1998 17:25 - ID#20783)
Story time


A few weeks ago, while cleaning out some old file boxes, I ran across a letter that was written in the latter portion of 1980. It was a warning letter, written by a very dear friend, who was concerned about my recent investments.

It was very simply stated..

My father once told me never invest in anything that eats. He went on to say his concerns were the fact that I was investing my forth coming profits on condos in Florida, oil wells in Oklahoma, limousines , a Ferrari, and various paper assets. And furthermore he feared the time management aspect of these investments might begin to take away from my own earning abilities.

To make a long story shortHad earned seven figures that year and wanted to invest some of it for future riches I had convinced myself. Also convinced myself that a full length sable coat from Neiman Marcus was a must have in Beverly Hills and on and on. Need I say more but sheer stupidity!

Hind sight is 20/20 but my friend had much clearer vision than I.

Back then my friend was worth several milliontoday he owns one of the largest publicly held bullion firms in North America.

Since that time I have invested in myself and my abilities. ( Invest in yourself and something you can control )

The part about anything that eats.well folks did he mean???.taxes, margin calls, time loss, or dont buy donkeys.

I do know one thing for sureGold & Silver made his wealth and they must not eat!

Take careBarb

(Sat Feb 21 1998 17:29 - ID#26793)
@Silver Fans
Barron's has a write-up on silver ( page MW5 ) mentioning several silver producers. Sunshine, Coeur, Hecla, Apex, Homestake and Prime Resources.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 17:33 - ID#57232)
Iran and Saudi Arabia are meeting on regard to improving relations
All: Given our interest in ME affairs, I am posting this. Don't know if this has been posted before. Of course, this may not be a pro-US meeting.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 17:34 - ID#26793)
Pres. Clinton makes 2nd call this week to Suharto on currency reforms. Worried?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 17:39 - ID#26793)
Bre-X; the plot thickens.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 17:45 - ID#26793)
Mexican Congress asking questions about banker's lifestyles after 1994 bailout

(Sat Feb 21 1998 17:50 - ID#316193)
Australian News Downplays Asian Crisis..But We Can Read

(Sat Feb 21 1998 17:53 - ID#57232)
More stuff on Saudi -- Irani relations -- nothing to do with USA.
This is not current, but relevant, I think. Saudi Arabia is making overtures to Iran -- and I doubt that the US is a topic of discussion.
My guess is that the 'partition of Iraq' is just disinformation to scare Saddam. I see nothing in my searches to indicate the Saudi Arabia will permit US use of Saudi bases to pummel Iraq. If Saudi Arabia has internal problems, which country would they want to improve relations with? Iran or the USA? I think the answer is obvious. And -- Iran is muslim.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 17:53 - ID#31868)
Wouldn't it be nice if the US CONGRESS demanded to know who owns and operates the Federal Reserve, BIS, WB? All the unknown people and the American people put up with this stupidity.

Crooks, criminals and thieves one and all.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:00 - ID#31868)
the Coward Elect called Asia an
economic glitch. Yeah, he has a clue about anything to do with the planet. Now watch Greenspan leave the next hearings with no ass, not cause it got chewed off.

He will be lying it off in his usual doublespamtalk manner. Asia may introduce unseen economic undulations as the data unfolds or some such horsepucky.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:01 - ID#288295)
War to start Feb 25?

Did anyone else see this boondoggle from CBS/Dan Rather?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:02 - ID#403277)
Robnoel: The best reason for investing in a pure gold coin is that, in a completely distressed economy, you can pull out you trusty Swiss Army knife ( if you haven't yet had to sell it ) and carve off bits of gold to use as money.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:04 - ID#252150)
Hi Ted
I got so depressed over losing to Chekoslobovia thurs night & having no chance for GOLD, that I got thoroughly smashed last nite & just trying to catch up on posts. And now we even lost the lousy bronze. Hockey nowadays is like the AU mkts--fu**ing hopeless. They waltz around in the NHL & throw the occasional punch, but when they have to play according to the original rules they're pathetic.
The nazi cops busted a little hemp shop in Victoria a few weeks ago & meanwhile tourists are getting mugged right downtown. No doubt about--the inmates are running the asylum & we are well on our to becoming a 3rd world Country.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:07 - ID#28594)
JTF, Donald--Nice work--something to which we have all become accustomed !
Some ponder points:
1 ) Gold Dinar MUCH more far reaching than Turkey!
2 ) It is Moslem. Overlay Moslem world on Oil World... Include much ( if not all ) of the CASPIAN reserve!
3 ) Consider Mahathir Mohamad, M.D., Prime Minister, Malaysia ( #2 on AsiaWeeks POWER 50 list, number 4 in 1996 ) . Dr. Mahathir, who took to task Soros and western currency speculators. How do you reckon Dr. Mahathir would feel about a gold dinar? How would Asia feel about it.?
4 ) Might China, always willing to work behind the scenes--walk softly
TR school of power politics, REVALUE the yuan and peg to the gold Dinar? Thus keeping its public word, while still managing to give the US ( and Europe ) the very sharp end of the stick!

The Paper Currency Fatwa, and the New World Order IT implies, gives one much about which to think... Must walk the circle! {:- )

(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:09 - ID#252150)
My apologies to any Czechs out there.
Tired & Depressed

(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:11 - ID#57232)
News from the future, or virtual reality run_a_muck?
Silver Baron: Did Dan Rather mention when the missles started flying? Feb 26? What he did is better than anything Prophetic I have seen. Apparently got visual images of the missles used in the war we have not yet experienced!

And the establishment complains about Matt Drudge.

Barb Hughes
(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:18 - ID#20783)


Imagine! Staging a war like a super bowl game! News media profits would soar!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:18 - ID#252150)
Old Gold@Bishops
It would'nt matter if the Pope led all the bishops, priests & nuns in a demonstration in front of the white house. It would have 0 effect-wrong religion.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:23 - ID#57232)
Thanks for the compliments!
SDRer: I appreciate your kind words, but it is Donald who is the more generous with his time to keep us up to date!

Any comments about how quickly the expanding xxxgate Kenneth Starr investigations will impinge on the US markets?

It will take alot to bring down this euphoric market, but much is coming our way.

I would guess Hillary will be indicted for perjury within a month, but I am no student of market psychology.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:32 - ID#344308)

don't be afraid of the lawn-mower blade........
chaos and flux, have been planning a reunion
with the peopleo for 69 years....with the
as hosts..this party will be held....and all
held accountable for their position and perspective...
the world is fixing to erupt into chaotic events of
catastrophic proportions...the recent 'peace-ful' and
'prosperous' times dictate this........physics...cycles.

'for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction'

what does this portend for stasis? can man's actions prevent
this from occuring?.......hell no!......only delay and amplify.
what to do with the semi-un-predictable-peopleo? bet AGAINST them...
especially history....where doth human-kind stumble?
where do the carbo-earth-anouts tumble? how will YOU explain to your
family that you SUSPECTED sh!t was inbound....but thought other-wise?

expect the worst.....prepare for the worst.......pray for the best.
your family just might survive. the gene pool.....only the strongest
and smartest survive.....time for man-kind... to find...
who holds the strength---knowledge---and who 'thinks' they do......
the natural processes of survival are fixing to be tested to the
n'th degree!

prepare-------no doom or gloom.....reality.....with-out realistic.
cherokee!;...sdctlywnbtivfs! pftcs......plamf......hyat.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:36 - ID#288295)
Barb Hughes, JTF

Even scarier, is the thought that ( when ( if ) it really does happen ) , will we be watching 'real' news, or a total fabrication.....How could anyone ever trust the networks to report facts after something like this?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:36 - ID#242249)
Iraq`s answer influence on the price of Gold
Here is my theory:

United States of America have a plan to go to Baghdad with ground troops!
The American Peoples do not want to kill innocent iraqians.No bombs!
All they want it is to get rid of Saddam.
So A Ground force of super tanks and personnals carriers will spear through Iraq from Koweit protected all along by Cobra Helicopters and all the air support the USA can throw in.FAST....Blitzcreig..They will destroy the republican gards once and for all.
Soooooo Gold will be sitting at the same price for a while after.
They will go for the head of the draggon this time.Not for the tail...

(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:39 - ID#342376)
I think my screen name sums it all up.....
This is still the best web-site I've found. I miss Ziva though.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:41 - ID#31868)
You trust the networks now?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:47 - ID#20137)
Date: Sat Feb 21 1998 15:33
Donald__A ( @A. Goose ) ID#26793:
I had wondered about the prices on the gold dinar and picked up a copy of Coin World, issue
of 23 February. There is no mention of that coin in any of the ads.

Donald, if you can't find it ... well it
makes you wonder, doesn't it.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:48 - ID#288295)

Not! Haven't watched a network news show in at least 6 months. However, I thought the Gulf War #1 coverage was excellent - now I'm wondering just what it was that I watched.......

(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:51 - ID#31868)
We watched the propaganda the government/media wanted us to see.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:52 - ID#288295)


Barb Hughes
(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:54 - ID#20783)
Silverbaron --- Tolerant 1

What's worse--- if next Wed Feb 25th we turn on the TV to this news---
How do we react? How will the rest of the world react?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:57 - ID#31868)
Now think about all the information that is pouring forth, unrelenting, on each and every day, 24 hours a day.

What information we see is totally controlled. There are some on the net that are trying to let it all flow, unrestricted. Some for profit, some for the sake of humanity.

Ever notice how the dirtbags in Washington want to know everything about you, everything you do needs a piece of paper, a registration.

Privacy my friend. Give them nothing. Read books, search the net. Enjoy life and tell the government to drop dead like the parasites they are. The Constitution is a powerful friend of the soverign individual. And believe me there are not a whole lot of rules and regulations to be found.

Life is simple, governments complicate everything and have done so since the dawn of time.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 18:59 - ID#31868)
Barb Hughs
We check to see if Dan Rather is wearing the same tie.

Barb Hughes
(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:00 - ID#20783)
tolerant 1
That's good!!!!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:01 - ID#344308);)


if you bought dec98 2500 crude calls.....
things could be a lot worse...
knowledge=power=$=survival.....some will....see ya.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:01 - ID#344308);)


if you bought dec98 2500 crude calls.....
things could be a lot worse...
knowledge=power=$=survival.....some will....see ya.

Barb Hughes
(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:07 - ID#20783)

That last line of yours ...sure said alot!!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:09 - ID#288295)

But wouldn't you absolutely, positively LOVE to have your hands on a copy of that tape!

A future exhibit for Journalism 101 - things NOT to do to let the people know that you control what they think.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:10 - ID#344308)

now barb---
'you probably think this song is about ya...don't ya'!?; ) )

(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:10 - ID#26793)
Iraq Attack
I read somewhere today that the most likely time for an attack is the night of the 25th because there is no moon. That is the date they picked in 1991 also. Even with all the high-tech stuff the lack of moonlight gives an advantage.

Barb Hughes
(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:18 - ID#20783)

You make the yellow rose come out in me!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:20 - ID#258129)
Just saw add on Dutch TV: "Our national lottery is celebrating its anniversary [do not remember how many years]. Thats why we have established a special price - 900 golden ducats with a value of NLG 100000 - tax free" - about US$ 50000

(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:22 - ID#344308)

look where oil went during the last 'adventure' in
the gulf....

that was a drop in the bucket...iran and others are
ready to up the ante....the opportunity of a lifetime.
dec98 crude calls @ $190.00 or less... how much would they
be worth if oil rocketed to $50bbl? $100k+ at the very least.
gotta step-up to the plate to hit a home run......time is very
short.....a pittance for a drop in the bucket.......!BOOM!
oil is $100bbl..........and the arabs are our friends and allies!!!
right...times are a changing.......

'the farther backward i can look...the farther forward i can see'
........winston churchill.

'if i have seen farther than others, it is because i have stood on the
shoulders of giants'.....sir isaac newton......


(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:26 - ID#252150)
Cherokee@ The St of Juan de Fuca is calm
& so will I be by the time I finish this rum & coke. How about changing your "expect the worst & prepare for the worst" to expect the worst & hope for the best. Naaaah....too pollyanish.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:26 - ID#368244)
@ Heavy Hitter and Farfel

Read about man building house out of aluminum cans and have decided to try one out of old gold coins. I am willing to pay shipping to remove any unwanted { Krugs, eagles, maples, etc.} that may be causing anyone inconvenience. Also, would like to use old mining stocks for interior wallpaper. Will have to charge modest fee for removal of these however.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:30 - ID#333131)
@life in elsewhere
I just realised that you people are all a dream that Dan Rather is having and you aren't real because he isn't either and I didn't really write this. Oh my, where's my Haldal.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:33 - ID#252150)
Oliver@I bet you have a great collection
of Superman & Spiderman comic books. There is no way that they would risk that type of operation--even if they could pull it off with a few hundred casualties. Besides they actually love Saddam. They think of him as a wayward son who is rebelling in late adolescence. Within a year his complexion might clear up & he would make any heartland Mom & Pop proud.

Barb Hughes
(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:35 - ID#20783)

cherokee__A: Oil's adventure keeps winding up at the old Error 101.

Isure: Want a partner?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:39 - ID#26669)
Preacher I see Ersel reposted 5:52 post already.

You can easily see why such a tidbit of info might be the most important post of the week for people who are trying to follow PGM prices short term. I for one am long on SWC but have been trying to scope out whether its present midrange price is fairly valued. I don't plan to stay in the stock past its next major peak unless we get some serious inflationary news, as I think that Pt/Pd will suffer more than gold during the next major recession. ( All my posts are purely conjecture on my part...the opinions and babblings of a fool, nothing more. )

Ersel: I don't have the info you asked for except for what Steve Kaplan posted before his vacation ( info about traders commitments but not warehouse stocks ) ; if someone hasn't come up with it by the time he returns you might try emailing him. I'll look again tonight. Went sailing today so will take some time to thaw out. :^ )

Mike Sheller
(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:43 - ID#347447)
Oil & War in Gulf
CHEROKEE: Oil rocketed in the Gulf War ( I ) because of the invasion of Kuwait and the perception that supply would suffer.
Current antagonistics don't really involve a threat to oil much, do they? I see oil laying low for most of this year. No matter what reasononably forseeable happens in the Gulf. It would take all-out war involving Israel, etc, to affect oil this time. A battering of Iraq, ill advised or not, would not in itself do much for, or to, oil. Wait til 99, Cherokee. Wait til 99.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:46 - ID#252150)
223@by refering to yourself as a fool you no doubt
think of yourself as a genius. The truth is probably somewhere in between.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:50 - ID#288295)

I've got a Magma Copper certificate that was cancelled Sept 9, 1929.....could be your centerpiece.....

(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:50 - ID#344308)

go here ----
and weekly oil....
submit...................!BOOM!....history relative
to today....expect the un-expected..
if error...type into location and hit enter...hell of a visual
perspective......they are screaming..
listen to your eyes.cherokee!;.saving-1-line-of-band-with--here-and-now-

(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:52 - ID#393224)
Have you heard that they are now selling 'Monica Lewinsky knee-pads'? The price is $69.69.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 19:54 - ID#318118)
@ CJS1
Thanks for the URL. I do appreciate it.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:07 - ID#31868)
A tape of Dan Rather, how do we know when it is live or memorex? ever?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:08 - ID#344308)

no mike-------
i, nor the muslim-for-lunch-bunch will wait
for the year next. the times are a-foul of one another....
your message was very concise in this..........tmtm.
'trust not the future---and bury the dead past'-------
the future is upon us...the calender is 1 year off....
you know what i mean.....and you do... from your own hand.

as in the book of books.....and the other semi-significants
of literary wonders. want to know the future? read and study the past..
read, and read some more....saturation of the written word, leads inevitably, to the reason for all seasons..........the big kahunna.
soon all will have the distinction of 'having' to choose whence they
stand......with man...or


(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:09 - ID#22882)
Ah appreciate the Rev

Mah Dear Reverend Farfeller:
Ah thank thee from the bottom of mah empty safe with a heart full a graditude.
Ah sell all the evil metal to da US Tresurie an git 42 dollar fur the ounce, some skinny guy wit wun of dem zits on da forehed give me da money and shake mah hand.
He say; go to one dem broker men on Wall Street and buy a piece of da land.
Finally ahm free of the evel spell, free at last. Bless you reverend.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:18 - ID#30116)
A curious picture?
Who is ( or what ) is lying here?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:19 - ID#30116)
A short term bit of perspective here...

(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:23 - ID#26669)
Sorry James, just a generic fool, not a Fool like the two guys on Yahoo.
That sort of Foolishness is, like you imply, a reverse sort of hubris.

I'm merely a generic foolish person with an i.q. just above room temperature who likes to dabble in PM investing. My identification with generic foolishness is that I subscribe to the bigger fool theory of PM pricing, which predates by many years the two investment gurus who offer Foolish advice. But if either the supply fails or the demand picks up then the entire game for PGMs will change. IMHO

I think that metals mining in general and platinum/palladium mining in specific has the chance the next few years either continuing to play the same tired cycles OR boom dependant upon the stability of South Africa and Russia on the supply side and new catalyst and fuel cell technology on the demand side. IMHO

(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:24 - ID#344308)


where EVERYTHING stands.........

'for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction'

un-deniable. a law of nature.......consider the 'known'
actions of the us, vis-a-vis the developing world...over the
last 150 years...EVERYTHING will be set right...regardless of
the in-humanity to humanity. delude your-self, and peopleo status and time wanes......delay, at you and your's
immininent risk....

(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:25 - ID#433286)
To non traders and lurkers
Resist the temptation to question your store of wealth in PM's in releation to the current price in US dollars. At this juncture do you really want to redeem them for paper? If others are willing to exchange paper and ink for gold and silver I'm willing--Less paper more gold--fine with me. As that great Australian philsopher O.N-J once said "Let's get physical".

(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:29 - ID#42365)
Just wondering are 1987 Pandas or pandas at all considered numismatics???

(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:31 - ID#244207)
Voyeur Professor, are you out there?
Many years ago, while working toward my degree in Philosophy, one of the courses I took dealt with emotive speaking. We would analyze historical speeches that moved people to action, but were void of any real content. Retrospectively, looking back 50 or 100 years, it seemed unbelievable that people would actually fall for the empty rhetoric. How could they have been so blind? Examples I remember were some of Hitler's speeches and also speeches of politicians in Colorado back in the frontier days, when western expansion was facilitated by looking for reasons to eliminate the Indians. This brings me to the present. When Madeline Albright was speaking about the Nashville heckling debacle, she said the following. "If we have to use force, it is because we are America. We are the indispensable nation. We stand tall. We see further into the future." Herr Professor ( using Kirkegaard's term of endearment for Hegel ) , what the hell does any of her statements mean? This is the kind of talk that military action is to be based on. Please critique. ( By the way, what is an "indispensable nation," besides the most arrogant self-description a representative of any country could use? )

(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:34 - ID#393224)
It's Dinar time.
It's time to shed some light on Dinar/Dirham as currencies and in their use for gold coins.

The Dinar and Dirham are units of currency in many Arab nations. Much as the west uses dollars/cents or pesos/centavos, many Arab countries use Dinar/Dirham/Fils. To convert just multiply by 10 from right to left.

Gold Dinars are arbitrary values given to a country's gold coins. In Australia the 1 oz 'nugget' is called ( called-NOT worth ) $100. In Mexico the 1.2057 oz gold coin is called 50 pesos and so on.

Some examples:
Jordan--5 Dinar=13.82 g. of .900 Au=.3999 troy oz ( AGW )
Kuwait--5 Dinar=13.572 g. of .917 Au=.4001 troy oz ( AGW )
Libya--70 Dinar=15.98 g. of .917 Au=.4712 troy oz ( AGW )
U.A.E.--500 Dirhams=19.97 g. of .917 Au=.5886 troy oa ( AGW )

As you can see, there are no unified standards. So when Donald asked "How much gold is in a 'gold Dinar' -- that all depends on who's gold is coming to Dinar!!

Barb Hughes
(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:41 - ID#20783)

This sites for you:

Mike Sheller
(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:41 - ID#347447)
Mad Maddy said "We see further than others" because she was imagining herself on the shoulders of Cherokee.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:42 - ID#31868)
M. Nottoobright is an idiot and should rightfully be called the Secretary of Squalor.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:43 - ID#31868)
Mike Sheller
Was she facing forward or backwards?

Mike Sheller
(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:43 - ID#347447)
Call it whatever you like...just don't call me late for Dinar.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:45 - ID#330175)
Hi James
I feel yer pain ( over-paid North ) ---but at least the Canadians had the 'class' not to bust up the place...The "ugly American" lives~~~~~~~~~~

(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:45 - ID#376309)
Crude Oil Calls
Some talk on dec98 CL calls. Spend alittle extra money and get something that expires from jun99 or there after, even if you need ot get a higher strike price. I expect the real fireworks to happen next year. I mean we will see the low this year and start to move up but we will move up alot next year. Ride the wave, enjoy the wave!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:47 - ID#244207)
A matter of timing
Goldhawk - To me, a hoped-for scenario would be to catch a nice uptick in a penny gold stock and use the "funny money" to pay off any remaining debt and buy the physical before things really heat up. A viable use for paper is to retire debt obligations whenever possible.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:51 - ID#57232)
Oil Crisis - probably not this time.
Mike Sheller: I agree with you that bombing Iraq will probably not affect the price of oil, unless Saddam has something up his sleeve and lobs a missle or two into Israel. If Israel is tolerant of a few missles ( without real damage ) we can avoid escalation. I don't think that would be pleasant for our carrier group, as we would then be in the position of fighting Iran,Iraq,Egypt, and Syria. If I was on one of our carrier groups and that happened, I think I would be tempted to be on the defensive -- would be very tough. Would we just watch? I don't know.
Knowing Saddam, a much more likely scenario is for him to wait until the current fracas is over, and our forces have gone home. Then the fun will begin anew -- probably 1999, as you say.
Any new observations about Feb 26? Solar eclipse day, New Moon, and broad 20 year tidal activity maximum. I find it interesting that our $2 Billion each stealth bombers are most effective on a dark night -- invisible on radar, but highly visibile optically. So -- a dark full moon is best.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:55 - ID#252150)
223@Hubris???--There you go again
using words from greek mytholgy. Only kidding 223. Some days I'm seized by this compulsion to tilt at windmills & smite down any & every hint of sham, deceit & hypocrisy.
As for POG I'm not very positive short term. I stated months ago that the Japanese banking/financial system was in even worse shape than most people could imagine. I think that the $U.S. can get to 135+ Yen, further fuelling the deflationary fires & hardly conducive to a higher POG. However, that would be a logical outcome, so there is still hope.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:57 - ID#244207)
Mike Sheller
What an image - Albright standing on Cherokee's shoulders. Picture poor Cherokee ... If he looked up, flux and chaos would seem like nothing. "For every action there is an opposite reaction. I looked up Madeline's skirt and several lives, including my own, flashed before my eyes."

(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:57 - ID#222231)
Tolerant1-your 117:53
Methinks they are owned by three midgets, runnung the world from a garage in Brooklyn. Hmmmmm or is it Pinky and the Brain. I'm of to see the Wizarddddddddddddddd.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 20:59 - ID#222231)
My post was edited by Pinky.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 21:02 - ID#57232)
Just had a disturbing thought
All:Does anyone know if Russia has any ground-based, laser guided missles? Might be quite effective if Saddam had some -- against our aircraft countermeasures. Might cause some unacceptable losses, and Saddam would have time to attack Israel.
Does 'Janes' mention anything that might be a threat in Saddams hands ( gift from Russia ) ? Anything the Russians might want to test in the field? Frightening thought!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 21:03 - ID#301318)
BUFFETT's foot odour!
THAT EXPLAINS IT, PART DEUX.... This is a great tidbit: Warren Buffett may have found a use for the 129.7 million ounces of silver he bought, right inside Berkshire Hathaway!! Turns out Buffett was recently at a shoe show in Las Vegas of all places -- remember, Berkshire owns several shoe businesses -- when some executives from one of his own companies, H.H. Brown Shoe, showed him a new product which fights the bacteria that causes foot odor. The active ingredient in that product is, you guessed it, silver. Work that silver trove, Warren!! ( Uh, oh. Foot odor! )

(Sat Feb 21 1998 21:04 - ID#393224)
G'day G,nutz. Mintages for 1987 Pandas are as follows:

87 ( s ) =84000
87 ( y ) =47000
87 ( P ) =12000
The y is worth @20% more than the s and the P about 15% more than the y. All very approximate!! Scarcity and condition obviously play a part.
P or ( b ) =Beijing
( s ) =Shanghai
( y ) =Shengyang
N=Nick@C Cheers.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 21:05 - ID#433286)
Me to. Few shares of VENGF--SSRIF. Nothing wrong with that I hope. But sometimes I think we can get alittle bummed with all the talk of PM's in releation to US dollars. Feel we need to break that mindset.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 21:08 - ID#348127)

That blows me away about CBS. I now feel certian that we will see action this week. Grab a gas mask - I expect to see some terrorism soon.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 21:08 - ID#31868)
Three midgets in a garage, bet they are leasing out the unused part with the lights in it.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 21:09 - ID#22956)
Welcome Back Mike!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 21:11 - ID#252150)
JRL@What an appalling image--MA on Cherokees shoulders.
Reminds me of the old joke...Oprah was arrested for trying to smuggle dope thru the border. They searched her & found 40 lbs of crack.

Barb Hughes
(Sat Feb 21 1998 21:13 - ID#20783)

News from the gulf..
The reporters are already there!!!

Gov't 'surprised' as US, Canada urge citizens to leave
JERUSALEM ( February 22 ) -- Government sources expressed surprise yesterday at recommendations issued by the US and Canada for their non-essential diplomats, tourists and businesspeople to consider leaving Israel due to the danger of an Iraqi missile attack.

"Instead of advising their respective staff discreetly, Washington and Ottawa have chosen to do so publicly while at the same time ignoring the effect this could have on the Israeli public," a government official said, expressing disappointment and regret.

UAE aid arrives in Iraq

An airplane packed with humanitarian supplies flew into Iraq yesterday from the United Arab Emirates for the first time since the United Nations sanctions were imposed eight years ago, airport officials said.
The plane landed at Saddam International Airport where a second plane was expected in the afternoon, the officials added. Both planes are carrying a total of 80 tonnes in medical supplies, medicine and other aid.
Aboard the planes are a delegation from the UAE Red Crescent and another from the Federation of Emirati Women, which is led by the wife of the President, Shaikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahayan.
It was the first time that the UAE sent humanitarian supplies to Iraq by plane since the embargo was imposed after its August 1990 invasion of Kuwait. Such flights require UN approval.

Leading political figures at Euro-Arab media and information conferenc

The Euro-Arab Information and Media Conference starts tomorrow in Bahrain.
The conference, titled Dialogue For the Future, will be held under the patronage of the Prime Minister, Shaikh Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa, at the Le Royal Meridien Hotel.
The three-day event will attract key media and political figures not only in the Gulf but in other parts of the world.

Abu Dhabi ( WAM ) - President His Highness Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan yesterday renewed his appeal to Iraq to offer the maximum cooperation possible to the Secretary General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, and to other international parties to resolve the crisis between the United States and Iraq by diplomatic means. "This would save Iraq and the region as a whole from the anticipated negative effects that would follow if there were to be military action," he said.

In a statement coinciding with Annan's visit to Baghdad, Sheikh Zayed added that a resolution of the crisis "cannot be achieved without full compliance by Iraq with all relevant resolutions of the United Nations, within the framework of respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and security of Iraq." "Only thus can the present crisis between the United States and Iraq be resolved," Sheikh Zayed said. "This would, in turn, improve the possibility of the lifting of the sanctions imposed upon Iraq, the continuation of which will exacerbate the tragedies being suffered by the Iraqi people."

Lurker 777
(Sat Feb 21 1998 21:17 - ID#317247)
RJ are you still here?
I noticed at a London coin dealers site the Austrian Phillarmonic coin carries a premium over the Eagle and Maple. Does your company charge a premium?

Once you posted something about a coin called the Mountie from Canada with a guarantee buyback of $310 US until the year 2000 and it carried a premium of $30 over spot. Can you redeem the coin for $310 anytime before 2000? How much is the premium now?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 21:18 - ID#372344)
@ Heard on the Street...Iraq...Saudis,Iran.... Dinar, Dirham....
It looks like the US Adm. is really confused about "strikes" vs Iraq....
I would give it 50/50 chance now....2 Days of Riots in Jordan at least
5 dead , shows how volitile this area is when you have Mullahs inciting
friday prayer worshipors to "protest" vs US, it can spread quickly and happen in most Moslem country.....I read today that Kuwait has
NOT been asked NOR have they given permission for US planes
to attack Iraq....Iraninan delegation in Saudi Arabia includes their
Oil minister, this meeting is about the price of OIL!

The two largest Oil producers in ME...Can anyone else see why it is
now so important for the US to show "stregnth" in the area....
the natives are getting restless...Also the two guys with the deadly "anthrax" L. Harris, turns out it wasn't "anthrax" at all, it was harmless,
not bilogical, and since he was a scientist, it may have been legal
for him to carry it...Tail Wag the Dog?....
A NYSE seat sold for $1.8 Mill the highest in history, is this a indicator
or what?....

I posted yesterday on this matter but I see not many picked on it
under Islamic Law a Gold Dinar contains 4.3 grams of Gold
a SILVER Dirham contains 3 grams of SILVER! and under Islamic LAw
they are exchangable 10 Silver Dirhams for 7 Gold Dinars, which
would make Gold and Silver about the same in value....
The quotes one gets for various Islamic countries for Dinars etc
are the value of their paper currency not the Gold and Silver coins
Dinar and Dirham under Islamic Law....Does WB know something???

stay tuned....

(Sat Feb 21 1998 21:20 - ID#57232)
Advance notice?
mapleman: You have a point there. Perhaps CBS got advance notice so they could scoop the story. SilverBaron: Was a specific day mentioned on that accidental CBS release? I wonder -- was that newstrip already pre-sanitized by our government censors? Hard for Dan Rather to give us 'live' news if it has to be screened before release, unless what we see on that fateful day has already been prescreened. That would put a new meaning to the term 'truth is stranger than fiction'.

Frightening thought -- I think I will just watch CNN news, live from Iraq.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 21:23 - ID#26669)
James, I ain't no mythological geek, but do have a Yen for knowledge.
Pardon, but I don't think it is at all dishonest to put a disclaimer on my posts! Better that than some bigger fool come along and believe any sort of inside knowledge.
I think you may be right about the Yen. You can fiddle with this graph utility and come up with the feb-95 feb-98 yen vs us$. To me the yen looks like it is inflating. If all this graphing nonsense means anything then the next peak might be in the 140-145 range. And from my perspective there's nothing that Greenspan can do to stop it, considering how much US$ debt the Japanese hold.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 21:25 - ID#42365)
Thanks bud.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 21:34 - ID#252150)
223@That's a great site.
I bookmarked it along with the other 323 sites, out of which I only ever use 4 or 5.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 21:36 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select gold Charts
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors

(Sat Feb 21 1998 21:37 - ID#330175)
Tzadeak ......and Gulf War #2 was a myth from the get-go
Never thought the bombs would drop and I now give it a 5% chance of happening---was a bunch of blustering BS ( from both sides ) from the!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 21:38 - ID#330175)
Go Czech Republic!!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 21:44 - ID#393224)
G'day Tzadeak. See my 20:34. The word 'Dinar' is being used as a symbol. The countries I mentioned are sure shortchanging their customers if one Dinar= 4.3 g of Au. The symbol 'Dinar' would be a good unit to standardise, if and when a gold backed world currency comes about. And, BTW, pigs can fly too!! When was the last time all of the Arab countries agreed on anything? Just look at all the hoo haa over the Euro. Now try and get the whole world to agree on a gold-backed currency. Hard asset-backed currency will eventually have to be imposed on the world by financial collapse and a rebirth of sanity.

Lurker 777
(Sat Feb 21 1998 21:50 - ID#317247)
Bart & Rose or anyone who knows.
Tylor Rose: did you ever take delivery of the 100 oz. bar from Comex?
Bart: I noticed on your buy page you will purchase any size 9999 pure bars for about 1% under spot. Will you buy Comex 100 oz bars if only 995% pure? I had Comex fax me the specs on the bars and it states 995% pure gold or better for good delivery and I was thinking about buying some.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:00 - ID#403159)
I'm using you as a contrary indicator. Charts
don't lie and neither do indicators. Keep up
the good work. Your making me money.
When you went long platinum, well guess
who was on the other side. All the way
down I made money. Thank youuuu.......

(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:09 - ID#344308)

please...i'll no longer post the future in the
present...looking up, at the summit of all summits....
too much for one to endure....i give absolute rights
to dog offense willy...
dad-burned grand-canyon with fuzzy cliffs and
bottom-less telling what one would
just for you......!;

(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:10 - ID#206358)
AUSSIES!watch out,the KALIMANTAN/BORNEO fire broke out again!
Hope the wind not blowing towards that directions!This time probably bigger.Haze appeared on the straits of malacca these two days!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:12 - ID#330175)
Why thanks~~~~~~~~~~~

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:18 - ID#403159)
Oil may not move like you say because of
tensions in ME. But there is a chance it could
explode to the upside. My oil stocks are moving
up strongly right now. Oil is good.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:19 - ID#344308)

as to partitioning iraq------
get real!-------
the muslims are united AGAINST the us.....
the peopleo have not discovered this yet..........
they will soon.....

a terminally ill paper-tiger...too much ink-insider-er-----
eaaarrrrpppp.....just mutated into ainks....part aids..part inkism..
ainks....soon to be at your local with ainks!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:20 - ID#372344)
@ Nick@C...Dinar/Dirham
G'day mate...I must say that although I cannot at this point in time
give a reasonable estimate for the chances of Gold Dinar in the
Arab world coming about, it most certainly will be greatly higher
than pigs flying for the following brief reasons....
The comparison of the EU to the Arab world is like comparing
apples and airplanes, they both start with a but that's it....
One major factor for the many recent wars etc..amongst the Arab
nations has been the covert activities, in protecting their interest,
of the US et al.... This was the main reason for the Iranian Islamic
revolution back in 1979, ( BTW the last time gold was around $800 )
was to drive the US et al out and to form some sort of Islamic Block,
it did spread some to Egypt, Algerian Lebanon etc... but of course
was "headed off" by the US. But IMVHV it would not take very much
to unify the Arabs under Islamic Religion, the KEY is the Saudis,
who have been endowed by ALLAH not only with the great fortunes
of OIL but are in fact the "Keepers" and "Caretakers" of the holiest
sites in Islam, a Saudi Union with Iran under Islamic Rule, and I
believe the rest of the Arab world would follow, they would have too,
the Arabs peoples are most devoutly fanatical and religious in the
world IMHV, their belief in thier GOD is total and complete praying
3-5 times DAILY, fasting for 40 days each year, martyring themselves
for thier GOD is very common, the youngest of the 3 Biblical Religions, who have felt for centuries "oppressed" by the other two, and once the religious clerics "give the word" and incite worshipors at prayers vs their rulers, it's curtains. It is certainly not impossible for the Arab world to unite
but they must rid themselves of "foreign protection" first, which will
be, if we judge history, very difficult indeed, but NOT impossible....
After all, once the US$ is forced out, what better basis of value for trade exchange and commerce between them than Religious Islamic Dinars and Dirhams....

Tyler Rose
(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:22 - ID#373164)
Comex Delivery
Lurker 777: No, I still don't have delivery of my 100 oz. bar. It has been a comedy of errors! First, they sent me a certificate that wasn't endorsed to transfer the bar to me. I mailed it back, and finally received a signed transfer certificate. I then called Republic Bank to find out how I could take delivery. They said "Lind-Waldock is the last registered owner of this gold". I have called L-W twice since then and they said they would notify Republic of the transaction. I will call again Monday to see what my alternatives are for receiving delivery. The certificate I received says that it is 4 9's fine ( 99.9999 ) and I have talked to Dillon Gage and they have no problem converting that bar into whatever currency I want it in - eagles, dollars, etc.

I will let the Kitco board know of further developments.

Tyler Rose

(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:25 - ID#372344)
@ Ted...I'm now down to 40% chance of Iraq strike ...I might be agreeing with you very soon?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:25 - ID#330175)
CherOkee---------damn right I 'know'
This bud's fer you~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:28 - ID#252150)
Tzadeak@"The Arabs are devoutly fanatical & religious".
Therein lies the seeds of their downfall & decline.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:28 - ID#403159)
Cherokee speaks truth
Smoke signals keep pale face ready.
Towel heads wants us riding camels.
Oil too cheap. Can't pay bills. Camel
jockeys want new cars, like America.
Towel heads say NO MORE CHEAP
OIL "yankee". Good life no more America.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:28 - ID#330175)
EB.............................*go gold*
Should I smack em?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:29 - ID#344308)
@---the-who---'see-me..feel-me..touch me.......feeeeeeel meeeeeee'-----


maybe yes, maybe money says yes.....

step-up to the plate......whop.... 'some-one just hit a home-run'
YOU CAN HIT A HOME RUN TOO! believe in yourself.....'they' want you
to 'know' you will
the prize for your family.....

(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:30 - ID#330175)
Tzadeak...............and the 'PAPER tiger'
Have now dropped to a 1% chance of anything happening~~~~~

(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:32 - ID#252150)
Tzadeak@40% chance of an attack
You are late to the party. I stated here over a week ago that there would'nt be an attack.

Lurker 777
(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:33 - ID#317247)
Tyler Rose (Comex Delivery)
How much more than the origanal futures price does it cost to take delivery - transfer fees, insurance, postage etc.? How much under or over spot does Dillon Gage quote you for the bar?

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:34 - ID#403159)
When did you last talk to God. If he said
40% that's got to be right.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:36 - ID#288295)
JTF @ Dan Rather

Sorry - was away for awhile.

Feb 25th - day of the 'live attack' by CBS...the question is, are they doing the attacking ( on us ) ?

Mike Sheller
(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:38 - ID#347447)
JTF - New Moon (ba ba ba ba ba ba ba boobie doo da baba...)
Or was that "Blue" Moon? Anyhow, I made a crude search of some handy horoscopes looking for people, institutions, corporations, and or nations with SOMETHING at 8 degrees Pisces, where the New Moon occurs on the 26th. Found only 2 countries right on. Honduras has its Uranus at 8 Pisces, and Canada has its Jupiter real close at 7.30 Pisces. Canada's Sun/Uranus conjunction at 8 Cancer gets a nice trine from this New Moon as well, so I suppose watching that country on the 26th might make some sense ( unless you're a cigar smoker, in which case I'd watch Honduras ) . Am I making sense?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:39 - ID#344308)

party-on------------you definitely were not the first to
post that notion.......mine is contrary.....there are stronger
forces at work here than the us machinations....had crow feathers
for din-din lately? we'll see........some-one is going to attack...
the us ......or'll be the us........

(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:42 - ID#252150)
Heavy Hitter@Talking To God
I keep trying, but there is just to much noise on the line.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:46 - ID#252150)
I know to = too much noise.
Have another beer.

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:46 - ID#403159)
War and conflict eminent in ME. Call
the oil companies of whom you have
credit with and raise the limits on your
credit cards. And especially EB, he's
always going AWAY.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:49 - ID#330175)
Mike Sheller
Long time no-C fellow New Yorker!!---and you're making more sense than most of the nonsense that is now spouted @ kitco~~~~~

(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:54 - ID#224149)
TedWhen you die---2 hard discs ---Canada----Back on the net for the last Gold rush ---Ug-Slam:Buried.---Goood day before you go----C$--wow---If you like trading um-um ---Its Party time---Sidways-----Sell the Puts and Calls---Sound Au courant ?---Gold is And will Be S----t.---Awat to fix my Compurgator

(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:54 - ID#252150)
Sheller@You bother me.
I know you are intelligent & yet you seem to believe in astrology. It bothers me for the same reason that I'm an agnostic & yet I know that a lot of very intelligent people believe in God. Either that or they are putting on a very good act. Reminds me of W.C. Fields when he was on his death bed & a friend visited him & found him reading the bible. The friend said "why Bill I always took you to be a life long atheist. W.C. replied "just looking for loopholes".

(Sat Feb 21 1998 22:59 - ID#252150)
Always searching for answers
but unfortunately, don't know the questions.

Barb Hughes
(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:00 - ID#20783)
Tyler Rose

Listen carefully!

It is in your best interest to do the bullion swap in-house with Republic Bank. They are one of THE LARGEST BULLION HOUSES IN THE WORLD!!!!

You are probably at least 1% better off doing the transaction with them.

Tell them you have this warehouse receipt that they are the storage facility for and you want delivery of or trade for Eagles, Mapes or whatever your little heart desires.

All they will request from you is a difference check.

Difference check approximately 4% or less. 4% difference is for minted product.

They have the goldIts just a matter of premium.

If Eagles or Mapes or whatever is 4% over cash, thats what they would want or less!

They have physical possession of your gold and all they will charge is premium over, for the product you want.

Take care & good luckBarb

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:01 - ID#372344)
@ James.....
I am saying there still is a 40% chance of Bombing Iraq, with the right
to adjust that number in the days ahead as Annan comes back,that is
different than NO Bombing, wouldn't you agree?....

As far as the "Religious fanatics seeds of their own downfall" I don't
necessarily agree, look those societies have very little crime, or
drugs, including alcohol...sure they execute publicly, but is that any different than the US capital here we are slouching
into theology which I don't believe is acceptable under Kitco's netiquette....
I would just say that all societies are doomed to fail, eventually,
History is littered with examples....Even currencies all die, I posted
a piece here on "currency graveyards", even The Gold Standard
fails at some point, because a monetary system, as well as
a world trading systems,are esssentially representations and extensions
of human beings, with much good and even more evil, at those
crutial and defining moments, so if the Islamic Rule lasts 25 years
50 or 200 , the fact is it worked for a while much like all other
systems mankind has "invented".....

BTW did you cover you Silver shorts.....

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:04 - ID#286249)
Donald, A. Goose, JTF--The reason you wont find the Gold Dinar in Coin magazine:
They have a simple program, not necessarily secret because the kuffar ( thats us ) are not paying attention anyway, so there is no need for secrecy.

The paper I first found ( 13 printed pages ) contains intriguing personal comments by the writer:

...and my Master, Shaykh Abdalqadir as-Sufi al-Murabit...

It seems that Murabitun is a Worldwide Movement, began in 1992 and is quietly putting gold into the hands of real people doing real things. That--for what its worth--is my impression to this point. In other words, the Economic Jihad began six years ago; Phase II will get the kuffar where he lives!

Murabitun Worldwide Site

Germany site
Das Islamische Wirtschaftsmodell Offene Mrkte / Gold und Silber / Zakat
The Islamic Economic[Trading] model : Open markets / gold and silver / Zakat

North America

3. War Against Usury.
Allah in the Qur'an has declared war on usury. "O you who believe, give up what remains to you of usury, if you are indeed believers. If not, take notice of war from Allah and His Messenger.. ( Qur'an 10:20 )
The kuffar have imposed their usurious system of Interest-debt and worthless paper money on the whole world. The peoples of the world are enslaved by unpayable debts, resulting in starvation, disease, moral degradation and political impotence. Usury is the cornerstone of kufr, it is the source of their power. We cannot submit to their tyranny. Join the war against usury. Fight in the way of Allah.

Well, now we understand the need for the ME "gold warehouse"...

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:08 - ID#403159)
The Gold Gods heard you. When
the day arrives and you desperately
seek gold, you will have none. Unless
you want to give up all your paper for
a morsel of gold. The great thunder
and fury of gold will be heard from
all corners of the globe. Paper games
no more.

Lurker 777
(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:09 - ID#317247)
No lose situation?
Tyler and all: As of 2/19/98 I can buy a Mar. future contract for $29,980 and take delivery of the 100 oz bar. Buy a Dec. 99 320 put for $1,960. and have ZERO downside risk!!! Total cost $31,940 or $319.40 per oz.
If gold goes below $320 the Put option covers me and anything over $320 makes money and the position is good until the second week of Nov. 1999.

Futures info:

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:11 - ID#288295)
James @ astrology

Say what you will about astrology - not long ago I thought it was complete bunk.

I've been following Rebecca Nolan's gold chart for a month or so, and had decided there was no correlation her predicted moves and the actual movement of gold.
Late last week I looked at the two charts again, and found that EVERY major turn in gold was called by her chart, except there was a lag of about 7-8 trading days between her chart pattern and the actual gold price chart.

The pattern was very much the same, along with timing of the turns. I think this chart pattern match is demonstrably better then chance, even if she 'goofed' on the exact times - so if it ( astrology ) works, why not use it?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:12 - ID#224149)
And---You ---Can---Find___The Right Stuff (STAR)
Sheller---I have new programs. but why should you be ? ---- here----I guess the love of Kitco-----Myself ---A---thouht of thought----Shit cant stay away Its like a Swarm---Good---Night--.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:13 - ID#340459)
The only media outlet with some amount of balanced reporting is CNN, the CBS/ABC/NBC are sick and
their motives are always suspect, I think that many of Americans are seeing through this crap on tube

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:14 - ID#201238)
Tyler Rose the world is run by....
It has been my observation that the financial world is run by 18 year old bimbos ( the cheapest labor that they could hire ) . If you have ever been in the back office of a brokerage firm or a bank you would observe two things that I did. First, their is a lot of 'paper' laying around, like stock certificates, checks, etc. and Second is that most of the people employed there are very very young and female. Ouch, lest some of the females of this group jump on me let me state that my point is simple inexperience - like a White House intern.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:18 - ID#252150)
Unfortunately, I did'nt have the guts to back up my convictions re: short silver. However, my convictions on the JY are about to pay off big time.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:18 - ID#401460)
James ( Tzadeak@"The Arabs are devoutly fanatical & religious". ) ID#252150:
"Therein lies the seeds of their downfall decline."

Therein lies the seeds to our problem, they are and we are not.


(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:19 - ID#330175)
Evening dude~~~~~~~pretty good 3-day run for the C$,but will 'it'

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:20 - ID#224149)
If ---Then ---So----What ?
HeavyheartedSometimes there is pulchritude in a Lady's pocketbook more than Gold.---Good-night I love You all

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:21 - ID#401460)

You mean CNN and Hanoi Jane, the anti war people. Strange they are pomoting this War.


(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:21 - ID#252150)
If there was a God & justice prevailed, then you would be right.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:23 - ID#403277)
" for forty days ....
Tzadeak: If you were referring to Ramadan, the truth is, they fast only between sunup to sundown. The nights are spent eating, drinking, and partying.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:31 - ID#288156)
On the
Please note that is from one Abdalbarr BROWN, Murabitun of Madison, Wisconsin. Farakan follower?

On other matters of concern--doing a search on Farakan, this popped up ( why I can't imagine, no Farakan string ) :
Feb. 18, 1998 - How did Monica Lewinski get a secret security clerance in the first place? If she can qualify for the right to obtain our nation's most sensitive information, then we have a real problem.

If Mr. Clinton had an affiar in the Whitehouse, his moral standing is questionable. If he asked people to lie to a Grand Jury, his legal status is suspect. But if he placed our national security in jepordy by allowing unqualified people access to secret material, he has violated his oath to defend and protect our Constitiution and our Nation.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:32 - ID#301318)
Saddam will die soon.

SH has the US where he wants us, a lose-lose situation. If we bomb we will be the under the redicule of the world and SH will use this as a tool to insite the Moslem world against the US and Israel. If the US ( UN ) back off on any UN resolutions and compromise with SH, the US and the UN will look weak and we can forget about any further progress with SH.

You forget what kind of evil SH is. How easy we forget! He is a ruthless killer and he WILL sacrifice his people to further his cause and to stay alive. What sane person would have taken on the US military and beleive that he would be victorious militarily? He is out to insite the ME and the world against the US and Israel. Period. He will do ANYTHING! This so called negotiations is just a delay tactic he has used before. How soon we forget!

I am afraid to say the only way out is to go in and bomb. Not to rid the ME of Weapons Of Mass Destruction, but to kill SH and his cronies by a wayward missle.
Surely the other ME leaders must have already discussed this scenario amongst themselves back in '91. The time now must be right as long as no ME leader is exposed to agreeing to this assasination. The US will take the political hit and the ME leaders will cooperate covertly to stem the terrorist fall-out. Wht else would Iran suddenly become so friendly with the US???

James ( Tzadeak@40% chance of an attack ) ID#252150:

You are late to the party. I stated here over a week ago that there would'nt be an attack.

Date: Sat Feb 21 1998 22:30
Ted ( Tzadeak...............and the 'PAPER tiger' ) ID#330175:

Have now dropped to a 1% chance of anything happening~~~~~

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:34 - ID#372344)
@ Ryder.... fasting...
Well when was the last time you or any non Moslem you know fasted
in the extreme desert heat from sunup to sunset for forty days, went to
work each day stayed up most of each night... all I can say is very few
North Americans would last even 3 days some even 3 hours....
BTW they don't drink alcohol....

Heavy Hitter
(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:38 - ID#403159)
SH will out live you.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:44 - ID#403277)
"..don't drink alcohol.."
Tzadeak: During the 60's ( Haillie Sellassie was still emperor ) , I supervised a mixed crew of Coptics and Muslims in Ethiopia. Saturday afternoons I always dispatched someone to town for a basket of beer. Everybody drank. All religions have their backsliders.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:45 - ID#252150)
You are a very sick individual. Get help soon.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:47 - ID#60253)
A CB lends gold at 2% to a producer for a better purpose than make money on idle asset. This gold loan is now the gold asset with a mine behind it! Such assets are traded and create solid paper for oil. If reason for good return was real, it would look like below. Read ABX page and consider, please.

There is much with this question!

Why doesnt a CB enter into a reverse spot deferred gold contract from the same Bullion Banks it lends gold to? Conditions:
1. CB lends gold at 2% to the Bullion Bank.
2. The Bullion Bank sells the gold at $300US.
3. The BB earns interest on the proceeds.
4. One year later, if gold is below $300, the BB buys in the gold and the CB gets its gold back plus the contango.
5. OR, if gold is above $300, the CB invokes the spot deferred clause and lends more gold at $300+ to the BB. The first deal is deferred until another time as intrest builds.
6. In this process the CB will bypass the gold companies and gain more return.

Read the ABX hedging page, we discuss at another time!

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:49 - ID#372344)
@ Ryter...
Salassie, wasn't he convicted of canibalism?....Of course there is
always the exception, I was speaking of the general rule and in
particular the Saudis and Iranians....
BTW they do have "bad habits" pardon the pun...But some of
them have a great many "wives" and young too...But One must be
able to "afford" to keep them...BTW this custom goes back to
biblical times, GEEE it was OK then, what happened?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:49 - ID#288156)
Nick@C--Back to the Dinar table...
We are talking about the Islamic Gold Dinar--
which has been restruck ( offical ceremony at Blue Mosque, Instanbul in 1992, and
which has specific weight of gold ( according to Islamic Law equivalent to 4.3 grammes. ( this is the gold dinar )

the Islamic Dirham is a specific weight of silver equivalent to 3.0 grammes. Umar Ibn al-Khattab established the known standard relationship between them based on their weights: "7 dinars must be equivalent to 10 dirhams."

So--belongs to no one country, but to Isalm.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:50 - ID#340459)
@Ryder, Ramadan is the month for fasting and lasts for 29 or 30 days depending on the Lunar month
FYI, It is not 40 days as mentioned in your post. Thanks..

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:53 - ID#340459)
ANOTHER, Good to see you back..

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:54 - ID#224149)
What !! My Soap is Gone ?
Ted---Is Great!!!!! Forget Another he has no Soap

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:54 - ID#403277)
40 days.
MIDAS_A: The 40 days were mentioned in TZADEAK's post, not mine. I just quoted it in my subject heading.

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:59 - ID#224149)
What is The Tme of Reality ?

(Sat Feb 21 1998 23:59 - ID#242249)
Flash you got it right.
We are going now for the head of the dragoooooon.