Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:02 - ID#28585)
Sell all your gold and silver...invest in that wondrous thing that never fails nor falls!!


The Hatt
(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:03 - ID#294232)
Am Signing Off Thanks For All The Great Posts.
May we wake up to $295.00 Gold!!!!!!!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:04 - ID#31868)
I believe that it was SDRer
that was asking about four or so months ago about the comparative implications regarding the US and UK and modern day Japan and the US.

In as much as the above applies to the 30s was the point that SDRer was looking to parallel ( spelling ) I think there is much to the thought contained therein.

Hmmmmmm, I still say Alan Greenspan works for whom, Hmmmmmmm, I said this before and my opinion is drawn from my reading of many, so therefore I seek no praise for seeing through the eyes of others, but I do lean towards their thoughts.

I am not as gifted nor smart, and certaintly not as clever as the rest of you but I know the street anywhere on this planet.

Given all of the above, this will be ugly far longer than the suits expect.

Let us see who parks whose cars ( if they can afford them ) this time around, I shall call K. V. this evening and see how his haircut translated.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:04 - ID#335190)
DREAM @ America must bring back the mighty dream.
"O, let America be America again--
The land that never has been yet--
And yet must be--the land where every man is free.
The land that's mine--the poorman's,Indians,
Negro's, ME
Who made America,
Whose sweat and blood, whose faith and pain,
Whose hand at the foundry, whose plow in the rain,
Must bring back our mighty dream again...

"O, yes,
I say it plain,
America never was America to me,
And yet I swear this oath--
America will be!"

Langston Hughes

PH in LA
(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:06 - ID#225408)
Do we really have to put up with this?
JTF, Al, TYoung and others commenting on the tone tonight:

It seems to me that much of the worst comes from one single heavy source. This individual tries vainly to insult everyone who deigns to notice his inane ravings while concentrating on his own stupid personal losses. Obviously used to throwing his weight around, he can't seem to understand that we are all out of his puny reach, here in cyberspace. ( The pen really is mightier than the sword. ) Aside from this, he offers nothing of any substance whatsoever. Someone asked tonight ( Date: Tue Feb 24 1998 21:45 ) "Why do you wish to portray yourself as a second class citizen?" Obviously, for some, aspiring even to second class citizenship is inconceivable.

For the good of the forum, I, for one, suggest that we all make it clear to Bart that this is a case where he must use to advantage the tool that registration puts in his hand. Otherwise, we all lose.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:07 - ID#31868)
6Pak while you are feeling Christian
the chinese and africans as an answer to your question.

I am ducking, but fierce in the defense of my statement.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:07 - ID#266105)

Most Goldbugs may have already gone insane

One is born to stark insanity. Getting well,
aye, that's the rub. Haggis.

Gotta get off, daughter must chitchat.
Maybe back atcha later, nuthin' better to do.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:09 - ID#216251)
Sharefin, Who is God ?
Study the Bible and find out Who is God and what the future holds

Quixotic 1
(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:15 - ID#48200)
LGB, Copper or Gold Saints ???
Thanks for the earlier post about Saints. I have noticed a large discount for the toned coins. I had an MS64 $10 Indian arrive at my door step today ( my first lesson about toning ) , upon opening the package, my first thought was, is this a copper coin ?? The old style slab ( PCGS ) coin, which I'm sure would not make the grade today, is already marked "Return to sender", and awaiting a credit to my plastic. Gee, what should I expect for only $4200.
I plan to purchase better date MS65 $20 Saints, common date MS64 Saints, and MS64 and MS65 Indians. I like the prospects of the premium coin leverage, based on the cycles going back to 1980. I already have a sizable stash of gold, silver and platinum bullion coins, gold and silver stocks and small trading account with HL and ABX options. Bullion=30%, numismatics=20%, stocks=45%, options=5%. The overall PM investments account for about 50% of my liquid net. Thanks again for your input.

Gold for the good guysGMJ

(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:18 - ID#243180)
The Hatt
We are in agreement here. I am not suggesting that the "old man" is incorrect. Rather, it is good advice. In my situation, I am practically debt-free, let me explain.

I hold large real estate investments of my own. I am relatively young and have unfortunately missed the 60's prices of real estate. Overall, my real estate holding are currently totaling 90-95% equity with only about 5-10% debt. Several places are owned fully. My "real-estate" gurus and friends are under the impression that leveraging is the way to go ( I reject this notion ) . I have one friend who has approxiamtely $1M of real estate of which only about 10-20% is equity. He loves the cash flow and leverages more when he acquires enough "cash". My feeling is he is INSANE. His philosophy is shared with ALL of my real estate and business associates ( BAR NONE,,, I am a sole voice here ) .

MY POINT: This OLD-one is protecting his fortune ( and rightly so ) BUT he is 85 years old and NEEDS TO. He may not have followed his own advice years ago since the world was a different place and he acquired wealth through leveraging. HOWEVER, if I use my circle of associates as a typical example of how 95% of the people "don't get it" ( IMHO ) I must presume that this figure ( if true ) has been consistently similar over the second half of the 20th century. With his wealth he's not cornerned with growth, dividends, etc as we care so much about. I wish that everyone would follow the OLD-one's advice BUT they won't and that's why we will ( one day ) have the wealth of the OLD-one.

Sorry for the rambling, BUT, this hits home because so many of my circle have made wealth and tell others how to invest when they themselves have made it through other means...

(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:24 - ID#31868)
Say something to me that has no motive - something directly to me without motive

(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:24 - ID#330175)
is the drought over

(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:25 - ID#335190)
Tolerant1 @ 00:17
I am "Not" feeling Christian, nor am I Christian. No, it is not possible for you to know such. Nothing wrong with that eh! Freedom, right.

I am sorry, I do not understand the reference to Chinese and Africans.

I considered that such a message, would help the many USofA citizen's on this site to understand that the USofA dream is not lost. Yes, it may seem that the world is against the USofA. The future belongs to the free, not the Corporate "free" agenda, but the "We The People"

Thanks Take Care.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:26 - ID#411259)
..... Vino & PGMs .....

Had dinner this eve with Jacques Lubin of the Platinum Guild International and we spent about an hour running down the current state of the platinum and palladium markets ( the rest of the conversation was influenced by wine and is thus not fit for posting here ) . I learned a couple of things tonight that put a new light on the PGM market. I'll post something in a day or two, once I have checked a few facts. This could be better than I thought

Bought some silver today.. Will buy some more tomorrow if it breaks down to 6.05 - 6.10. This stuff is going to run in the next couple weeks, perhaps to heights as yet unseen in this decade: Lots-o-fun to be had here, meanwhile, I'll trade the range.. I love my job

jim c
(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:28 - ID#69280)
Gold Discussion
All of these quotes were made in 1976, just before gold skyrocketed to $850 level.
"I don't know where we go from here. I'd hate to say $90 an oz, but
I suppose even that is possible"-WSJ 07/20/76
"Thanks to the latest IMF dumping of the stuff ( gold ) , the great rush of'76--to unload--took on the makings of an old-fashioned panic. But take heart, gold bugs! Dick Donelly, from his privileged perch in Commodities Corner, assures us that the intrinsic value is at least $5.00 an ounce."-Baron's 07/22/76
"There seems to be little to stop the price of gold going below $100 an ounce."- The Economist 09/11/76
"The new low for gold is an indication the central banks of the world, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the West German Bundesbank, are determined to press on their plans to demonitize gold regardless what that does to the price."- Business Week 09/13/76
All the above comments sound very familiar in today's time. Also, WB was basically forced to reveal his silver position but if he is accumulating gold he would be as silent as possible about buying until he is done.IMHO. It is always darkest before dawn.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:34 - ID#31868)
6Pak I heard you loud and clear podge.
Date: Tue Feb 24 1998 20:25
tolerant1 ( TO: ANOTHER - hmmmmmmm ) ID#31868:

Alexander Hamilton, James Madison, John Jay and I have sat and pondered your furious desire to speak with others. Hmmmmm. On this evening we address to all who would care to listen to more than just money, a thought, no more no less.

"Let the names of whig and tory be extinct; and let none other be heard among us, than those of a good citizen; an open and resolute friend; and a virtuous supporter of the RIGHTS of MANKIND, and of the FREE AND INDEPENDANT STATES OF AMERICA."

The quote is from a friend whose death post dated our writing of the Federalist Papers. We now raise a glass to him, his work and the spirit that is America - God Bless Thomas Paine - June 8, 1809, New York City when he left us for a different General Delivery.

Keep your gold and oil, keep it all and drown in it, and be buried by its weight.

We are America and we say LIVE FREE and understand TRUE VALUE, our REPUBLIC is our WEALTH.

Good Daylive free on our soil

(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:35 - ID#153102)
Current & Past Events
I thought the announcement from the South African Central Bank today was somewhat noteworthy. Considering the source and the previous behavior of CB's in Canada and Australia, it seels self-evident to me that these people have a greater loyalty to the greenback than anything else. The CB's are the one international united group and they are united around the debt system.

I have seen this greenback system roll over obstacles before. Unlimited credit is a powerful force. Keynes served truly dark, demonic forces. The idea of making a currency of debt, a curse, must have been whispered to him by Satan himself. It has spread across the planet like a plague. But, in our time when interest rates are low, interest on the US national debt accounts for a larger part of the budget than defense. It will increase in a downturn. And you cannot pay down debt with debt, so it is prospectively an ever increasing curse and burden. There is a country saying about the fool who just kept loading the wagon; nevermind the mule was going blind pulling it already. So, I say a freeman will soon be one with no debt and with no asset in his name.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:39 - ID#31868)
Do not despair, Liberty and Freedom are alive and well in the hearts of oh so many.

How many eggs crack themselves to become omelets?

Not too many I would ( sorry to use this word after our last conversation ) imagine.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:40 - ID#243180)
What's up with this ANOTHER personality ???

(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:42 - ID#411259)
..... PS .....

I learned tonight that I was the largest individual seller of platinum coins ( Eagles and Leafs ) in the world last year; most of those were sold at these levels or below. I personally sold almost 3 1/2 % of all platinum coins sold on this earth last year. I had no idea Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:44 - ID#31868)
RJ you take a great deal of crap on this
forum ( spelling, I am not that bright, okay, not bright in the least ) a shot of Mexico to ya, gulp.

At least when I walk into the hall of monks, none of them look up from their soup. Sit, eat and be silent.

Have a good evening, you deserve it.

Lurker 777
(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:44 - ID#317247)
All : lets try to keep this forum great!
Another: thank you for your THOUGHTS! Please come back and post often. I do not care if you are Big Trader or little player, your posts are always welcome and intriguing.

RJ is our friend who is kind enough to give us his insight into the REAL world of bullion trading from the biggest trading house around. He deserves our respect and gratitude for his informed posts. Thank you RJ.

Farfel Please do not post derogatory remarks mimicking Christian values and Wall Street as one and the same. Try BUDDHA or MUSLIMS OK! Thanks

Heavy Hitter: PLEASE STOP!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:48 - ID#222231)
Wetgold, Jimc
To Wetgold, I hope for your sake you are diversified in your investments. Real Estate is the most illiquid asset one can have. Being brought up in the last depression, I saw many properties lost that were completely debt free but could not be sold except for maybe a nickle on the dollar. Taxes had to be paid and the cost of maintenance which could not be paid, ergo forclosure and substantial loss.

To Jimc, Gold is still held by CB's and for good reason. If they thought gold was of no use, would'nt they have dumped it all? The CB's can'nt allow the price of gold to linger below the avg cost of production for long without drying up supply. Who's going to mine it long at a loss?

To paraphrase Yogi Berra, "IT"S DEVE JUE AGAIN" ( pardon my French! )

(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:52 - ID#153102)
I keep the faith and tend the flame. Prudence and foresight are not despair. Teach your children never to be optimistic about government.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:52 - ID#42371)
@ Lurker 777
Your puts are looking pretty good now. Stiill holding them?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:55 - ID#222231)
Smell my %$## BMORCE! Just kidding. Congratulations!


(Wed Feb 25 1998 00:58 - ID#243180)
Thanx for the advice. Have Trusts set up to handle taxes for at least 10 years given normal growth in tax rates. I am aware of the liquidity issue BUT have already made my investment back and more,,, if they become worthless ( don't care ) ,,,, I'll level them and allow the locals to farm on it,,, gratis ( or maybe, $1/yr ) .

DIVERSITY: Love it,,, real estate, paper, REITs, and most importantly PMs. The way I see it,,,, if they all go I feel sorry for those people who have only 1 ( or worse, none ) . I hope to help those who are not as insightful as us ( I really mean this ) . This is also a motivator,,,, since we know we are correct with the paper downfall and PM upsurge,,, we must take care of our fellow citizens who will be in dire need.

Not many like when I say it BUT we need a good depression to cleanse the soul of the human race and get people thinking straight again,,,, it is the natural order that "the enlightened" wish to change and to have us in "their control",,,, I say: "LET'S GET IT ON"......... down with fiat,,,

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:02 - ID#31868)
WetGold, Hmmmmmmmmmmm
From one day to the next can you draw from a cup that which was you the day before? I give this entity you speak of verbal shafts from the cross-bow which is my tongue and teeth, this is true.

However, I emulate Prometheus I would gladly give to all and never think of being chained to a rock, and having my liver eaten daily.

For me there would only be gain and never loss.

My only thoughts would be the infinity of what they who arrive after the foul bird has eaten my liver, might accomplish...

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:04 - ID#31868)
If you can spell Yogi screw the rest, you don't have to but I understand French women, nah....

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:05 - ID#411259)
..... Way too wierd .....


Don't know what that "BigManonRareCoinExchange" is all about, but I dated a Dutch girl named Manon for four years when I was in my mid twenties. Seems a strange coincidence............

Yo, Sevens -

You caused a bit of a stink today, e-mail me and we can discuss it privately.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:05 - ID#373403)
Import and commodity prices, however, will restrain U.S. inflation only as long as they continue to fall, or to rise at a slower rate than the pace of overall domestic product prices. The key question going forward is whether the restraint building from the turmoil in Asia will be sufficient to check inflationary tendencies that might otherwise result from the strength of domestic spending and tightening labor markets.

With the continuation of a remarkable seven-year expansion at stake and so little precedent to go by, the range of our intelligence gathering in the weeks ahead must be wide and especially inclusive of international developments.

But we must be concerned about becoming too complacent about evaluating repayment risks. All too often at this stage of the business cycle, the loans that banks extend later make up a disproportionate share of total nonperforming loans. In addition, quite possibly, twelve or eighteen months hence, some of the securities purchased on the market could be looked upon with some regret by investors.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:07 - ID#411259)
Last post would not take my e-mail address. It is as above. Seems e-mail addresses are non-grata hereabouts........

Lurker 777
(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:08 - ID#317247)

Yes I still got them. I am looking for a test of $285 and then I will buy Physical Gold. I have some Dec 99 280 puts to cover my new physical purchases. At $280 I will sell my June 98 290 put and buy one more June 99 call with a 310 strike.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:08 - ID#243180)
What happened to Bart,,,,,,,, oops, I mean ANOTHER

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:09 - ID#243180)
were U not the one looking for delivery ? If so, howdya' make out ?

jim c
(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:12 - ID#69280)
I concur, but with new gold derivatives ( spec shorts ) , forward selling by gold companies, all negative news about gold, people do not seem worried about supply ( until the shorts get squeezed ) . Although, I have to wonder with all this selling WHO is doing all the buying?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:18 - ID#222231)
RJ, tolerant1, Wetgold
RJ, I prctise RV, so be careful.

tolerant1, I'd rather screw them than understand them.

Wetgold, How about a small loan, say 1 mil?


Good night from the land of assholes.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:18 - ID#42371)
@ Lurker 777
I just picked up an S & P May 300 put and am hoping for an extension of the decline also looking at a couple of high tech stocks that lokk shakey on technical grounds.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:22 - ID#222231)
Make that American.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:24 - ID#31868)
At this point I am sure you have seen my rebuttal ( spelling ) to government, I was taught by the best, happened to be my Father, I hide nothing, in front of all of those who watch.

He taught me that the government is nothing but someone with a gun.

If you do not know, or understand that, learn it for someone you love.

The difference is they do not want to meet their God or system, I see things differently, I have never once made lite of the fact that I would and will dive on the bayonet so that the promise which climbs over my back is golden and kept.

All debts are to be repaid. What a concept, eh.

How bout them METS Huh.

America is full of these thoughts.

Lurker 777
(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:24 - ID#317247)

Tyler Rose is the one trying to get delivery. I have researched taking delivery but after calculating the difference between a 995% Comex 100oz. bar and coins there is not that much difference. Coins are about 5% over spot and you get a premium over when you sell. Comex bars sell at a discount to spot.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:26 - ID#42371)
lets clean up this forum and get back to discusiing gold, investments and world affairs
Good posting sharefin. To the roaming psychos please don't ruin this forum.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:27 - ID#42371)

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:31 - ID#266105)


Now, out to the garage/woodshop/now mostly big walk-in
( chilled ) pantry to find maybe that old bottle of
tequila from a distant gathering, maybe, and one
at'cha. Stuff makes me sick, it is not liquor, it
is DRUGS!!

Go Gold, and I don't mean cuervo.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:34 - ID#31868)
Please tell me the expected drop in tax revenue in Manhattan ( spelling, sorry I am slow ) and how that will affect the overall capacity of parking which will in turn impact the ability of the laid or layed off executives so that I might arric=ve at a decision.

please, pal tell me with all your know how. I kneel before your grasp of gold money and the rest of woth...

feel free wonder child

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:39 - ID#243180)
I also recall someone ( perhaps Barb Hughes ) saying that once delivery is received that large houses can convert to coins, such as, Eagles, Maples, etc. How can this be done with 0.995 Comex bars ?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:41 - ID#411259)
..... Heavy load of .....

Heavy Hittin' Boy -

Thank you for your endorsement. Judging your total lack of understanding of these markets and considering the source, I could not ask for a more rousing endorsement. Thanks.

That you have the complete inability to recognize your worthless contributions to this forum, and to be properly embarrassed by you blathering pabulum ( look it up, the dictionary is your friend ) , excuses your inanities not one bit. You write stupidly and I can only conclude that you are stupid.

Not a pleasant post, But I am very loyal to my firm and to my career. When a punk like this fellow spreads this crap about the most respected metals dealer in the world, my hackles raise and I will happily duke it out with the best, and spit on the littered corpses. Sadly you do not rate this effort. You are ridiculed and disrespected by all on this sight by merit of you own words, and you shall fall by the same.

Nothing is worse than being wrong at the top of your voice.


Hepster -

Tainted?????????? I trade both sides of the market, I don't care where it goes. Could you please describe my taintedness???????? I made that last word up

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:42 - ID#31868)
2BRO2 or something close to that, if only Einstien had known
epigrammatic I think is the word you were looking for.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:43 - ID#243180)
On the buildfreedom site I've read of Pure Contract Trusts. I've been looking thru some old law books and wonder if their is a generic name for this type trust. I had sent some messages to some parties on the AFS list but have yet to receive a specific statute for my neck-of-the-woods.


(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:45 - ID#243180)
As Bart would advise: "Resist the temptation to 'flame' others in the group". They go away after everyone ignores them...

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:50 - ID#411259)
..... Bullion Exchange .....

Wet -

I often exchange bullion for bullion coins on an ask to ask basis. No additional costs. Many of my clients trade in bullion and take their profits in metal. Tax ramifications can be beneficially affected by this strategy.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:53 - ID#243180)
RJ,,,, give me the straight scoop,,,,,
For the past several months,,,, lotsa discussion on delivery,,,,,

Do I want to take delivery of a contract or should I just get coins from my regular guys. I get in the mood and buy 10 Saints, 20 gold bullion, coupla' hundred silvers periodically. I don;t mind going for 5000 Ag oz contracts or 100 oz Au contract if it's worth it.

What's up ?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:53 - ID#266105)

The cuervo did not exist, Irish coffee. 2000sh DROOY
@ 2 5/16 at opening this morning ( yesterday ) , stop
loss $2, we shall see, I don't like to lose.

'What would you call the highest happiness?,' Wratislaw
was asked. 'The sense of competence,' was the answer,
given without hesitation.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:54 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
Another twist to the CB/gold manipulation theory, from Dennis Birch's Resource Stock Digest, Feb. 1998:

This is about "The Sting". This is about the sting that will smash the Great Bull Market. This is about the sting that will derail the gravy train. The sting is already in place and its trigger has already been pulled. The sting merely has to unfold. The public suspects nothing.
A sting is a confidence game in which the victim is deliberately set up to believe that he cannot lose, that he has a bird's nest on the ground. Then at last the trap is sprung, and his dreams of riches turns to rags. This sting was made in Japan, with a strong assist from Switzerland.
To get a better idea of the Swiss Connection, we have to look at the Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ) in Basel. The BIS is the Central Bank's central bank. It was formed in 1930 to handle the collection of German war debt following WWI. Its members are the central banks of the industrial world, such as the Bank of England, the German Bundesbank, the Federal Reserve Bank, the Bank of Japan, and so on. Never once has it ever had to ask for help from any government.
A definite coolness exists between the BIS and the United States. This goes back to the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, held to set up the machinery for resuming world business after WWII. Even though this conference established the gold-backed US dollar as the only reserve currency, the US did everything it could to torpedo the BIS and give sole power to the US sponsored IMF. The war was not over in 1944, but the combatants still got together and defeated this US grab. In the final showdown, the Europeans and Japan never completely trusted the US.
As the years went by, the BIS suspicions were justified. The US began to abuse its reserve currency role by simply printing dollars. American companies began to buy control of businesses all over the world. In 1971, Pres. Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard, and introduced the novel idea of floating currencies. Meanwhile, the US national debt began to increase each year, until it now stands at about $5.5 Trillion, an astronomic amount that can never,ever be repaid. It was clear that the US was out of control.
Along about 1972, I began to spend a great deal of time and effort in studying the BIS and its agenda. The first thing I found was that although the US had turned its back on gold, the BIS was aggressively buying it. By 1990, the BIS was by far the largest holder of gold, with more than 1 billion ounces. This amounts to an outright corner on gold.
The next thing I learned is that the BIS is extremely closemouthed. It keeps a low profile. Its favorite M/O is the sneak attack. THey have their own word for this- "coup". Their ideal coup is one where the victim is taken by surprise, and does not even know what hit him. The BIS tries to leave no fingerprints. Thus their coups often become perfect crimes.
The third thing I learned was that the BIS had two ironclad objectives. Both were so bold that they would take your breath away:
1 ) To destoy the Soviet Union as a threat to world peace.
2 ) To destroy the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.
We all know that the Soviet Union collapsed in 1989. This was done by the BIS without firing a shot. They simply loaned large sums of money to the Soviets, and then called the loans. Just a routine castration! A simple foreclosure. This is how they got the Russian gold.
The second goal, of bringing down the dollar as reserve currency, has not yet been reached, but I believe it soon will be. This brings us to the present sting operation.
If you are going to derail the dollar and The Great Bull Market, you better bring a pretty big checkbook. The new money coming into the mutual funds is running about $20 billion a month. Unless you can top that kind of buying pressure, you don't have a chance. How in the world do you shoot down an animal that big and that powerful? In my opinion, the BIS and its Japanese partners have come up with an ingenious answer. It is big enough to work. It goes like this:
The sting began 2 years ago in August 1995 when a rash of bad loans and insider scandals brought the Japanese to their knees. The BIS became alarmed, and advised the Japanese to lower their loan rates to 1/2%. This created an enormous gap between the low Japanes rate and the 6-1/2% US rate. Into this gap poured speculators from Japan and everywhere else. The speculators would borrow yen in huge amounts. They would then sell the yen and put the proceeds in US paper, thus making an enormous guaranteed return. This came to be known as the "Yen-Carry trade". This yen-carry trade has been going on for over 2 years, in virtually unlimited volume. It created a huge demand for US bonds, which in turn sustained a huge and unprecedented
bull market in stocks.
In similar fashion, the Japanese and others found that they could do the same thing with gold and this came to be known as the "Gold-Carry Trade."
The speculators could borrow gold at about 1%, sell the gold, and then invest the proceeds in US paper with a huge guaranteed return. How delightful! How delicious! But how lethal!
I say lethal because this yen-carry, gold-carry Ponzi scheme has created a potential short squeeze of colossal magnitude. Sooner or later these fantastic leveraged schemes must be unwound. The gold and the yen which were borrowed and sold short will have to be bought back, and the bonds that were bought with borrowed money will have to be sold. The totals involved are probably well over a trillion dollars, or far beyond the mutual funds yearly take. Anything could trigger the debacle. As long as gold keeps going down or the yen keeps going down, no problem. As long as bonds keep going up, no problem. But once gold starts to rise, or the yen starts to rise; or once bonds start to fall, these huge positions would be unwound. There would be a run for the exits and the panic would feed on itself. Margin calls would ruin the leveraged speculator in short order. There would be no way to stop the carnage. All it will take is a coup to start the waterfall.
We had a coup on June 24,1997, though it was only vaguely understood at the time. The Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto told a luncheon meeting at Columbia University, "I hope the US will engage in efforts and in cooperation maintain exchange stability so we will not succumb to the temptation to sell off treasury bills and switch our funds to gold."
In a matter of minutes, the NYSE collapsed and the Dow Jones closed down 192 points in a mini panic. The victim's saw the trap for the first time! Then the media and Wall Street fell all over each other trying to control the damage, saying Hashimoto was misquoted, etc., etc. The various exchanges staged a desparate anti-gold raid, and soon had gold down to 12 year lows. The Street breathed a sigh of relief and returned to its summertime siesta.
But the damage was done. Now look at the mess that confronts the big-time gamblers. We now have gold at new lows and bonds at new highs. Surely this is a speculator's dream come true- well, isn't it? The yen-carry and the gold-carry is still in place, and they still have to be unwound. The temptation Hashimoto mentioned now becomes unbearable. The Japanese cannot resist the chance to sell the bonds near their highs, or the chance to buy gold near its lows. Do you imagine that the bonds will stay high or that the gold will stay low? No way! The unwinding begins to feed on itself and the 5000 mutual funds and all their friends will be unable to do a single thing about it. That's what you mean by The Sting.
I have no idea whether Hashimoto was acting on his own or whether his words were part of a larger plan. I know one thing, though. This guy is no innocent babe in the woods. Before he became the Prime Minister he was Japan's Finance Minister. He knew the ropes. He knew all about yen-carry and gold-carry. He was telling his people that the game was over...
Another thought, the Japanese could acquire gold in a different way. They could sell our bonds and buy the EMU, the new European currency that the BIS is sponsoring to replace the dollar. The EMU is expected to be a package combination of gold and paper.
So there you have the anatomy of the greatest sting in history. It is real. It is in place. It cannot be stopped. It can only feed on itself and get more and more desperate as the shorts are squeezed to death. And best of all for the BIS, the fingerprints on it are not Swiss - they are Japanese...

jim c
(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:55 - ID#69280)
Discussion Content
To whom it may concern. "The content in this group should be related to gold or other precious metals as a commodity or financial instrument".
Please reread Kitco's netiquette guidelines.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:56 - ID#31868)
Trust, hmmmmmmm, I read once that this was the ability of someone to hide a friend, no matter what the......hmmmmmm you understand.

The 104th Republican Congress and the Clinton Administration have made it more difficult, but simply follow the path of their money and one finds the mini-contractual methods to hide and protect ones wealth.

It is my assertion that you do not need to do these things, in order to be prudent I suggest various avenues.

My friend, the dirtbags in government hide this that and the other, hmmmm and we are supposed to hire lawyers and accountants.

Send me mail, I will inform you of what our leaders do, and of course better ways to protect your wealth and emotive thoughts.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:56 - ID#411259)
..... Flame No More .....

Wet -

As a recipient of no less than five derogatory attacks against my firm this day, I would not call my single response a "flame". You are indeed correct that inattention is the best antidote, and the higher road demands thus, but I chose to drag this sodomite out by his whiskers to writhe and squirm in the sun. It is my way..

Lurker 777
(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:56 - ID#317247)
I dont know, but I am sure the trade was for a price. I got a fax from Comex that stated bars are 995% pure or better gold. I called around and no one would pay spot for the bar and some dealers did not want the 100oz bars at all.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:56 - ID#216251)
Tolerant - Motive
Without a motive I would not be moved to speak, to post, to live. I am always motivated to please my Creator.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 01:59 - ID#243180)
sharefin@01:54,,,,,, Excellent information,,,,
I posted this about 6 months ago,,,, may buttress your very informative post,,,

"Crisis of 1784" occurs due to too much paper money issued by the Articles of Confederation government.

Hamiltons "Report on Public Credit" promotes the establishment of a private "Bank of U.S.".

Hamilton states a need for central bank.

State banks openly compete with the private "Bank of U.S.".

1st Bank of U.S. is chartered for 20 years.

Gold is deemed legal, lawful money of America.

1st Bank of U.S. goes out of existence. Constitutional concerns.

War of 1812. Need currency to help finance war. Constitutional concerns.

2nd Bank of U.S. is chartered for additional 20 years. Concerns over "hard / soft" money.

"McCulloch v Maryland" establish constitutionality of bank.

"Panic of 1819" occurs. State banks collapse. 2nd Bank of U.S. restricts credit and calls-in loans.

"Osborn v Bank of U.S." strengthen legal position of bank.

Andrew Jackson elected President.

President Jackson and President of Bank of U.S. ( N. Biddle ) conflict. "Bank War".

Jackson create "pet banks" to channel federal funds. Roger Taney is Treasurer.

89 "pet banks" operating with U.S. funds. Biddle calls in loans.

2nd Bank of U.S. goes out of existence.

"Distribution Act" sent profits from public land sales to the states.

Jackson eradicates the federal debt and created a large federal surplus of money.

"Panic of 1837" occur. State banks collapse.

California gold rush. Land and commodity prices rise to meet demand.

"Panic of 1857" occur. "Free banks" collapse due to high price of land and commodities in the west.

Abraham Lincoln elected President.

Civil War. Surplus money created by Jackson is used to fund war.

Lincoln commands Treasury to print money with no debt to taxpayers ( "Lincoln Greenbacks" )

Lincoln killed. "Greenbacks" replaced with bankers money with public debt.

Supreme Court declares a national income tax unconstitutional.

Teddy Roosevelt commissioned Saint-Gaudens to design one-ounce gold coins.

The Money Trust???.

Private meeting at Jekyll Island, Georgia between Industrialists to discuss formation of private central bank.

Woodrow Wilson elected President.

President Wilson signs "Federal Reserve Act ".

16th Amendment passed .

WWI begins.

Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to encourage borrowing and spending.

Federal Reserve Bank pulls 1/3 of money supply out of economy.

Woodrow Wilson elected President.

Bolshevik Revolution.

League of Nations.

Council on Foreign Relations ( CFR ) formed .

Stock Market crash.

Congressional committee demands impeachment of the Federal Reserve Governors.

Departments of Labor, Commerce, Agriculture, et al. created.

Constituent Charter created on 20 January for the Bank of International Settlements ( BIS ) .

Gold confiscated by Executive Order and price set at $20.57 an ounce .

Gold standard abandoned by FDR.

Gold price set at $35 an ounce by FDR .

Gold bullion confiscated by FDR.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation created. ( FDIC )

Brussels Protocol regarding the immunities of the Bank of International Settlements created on 30 July.

FDR extended the term of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bank from 7 to 14 years. This is to keep them out of reach from any single U.S. President.

U.N. treaty makes dollar redeemable in gold to international banks.

President Kennedy signs Executive Order # 11.110 allowing Treasury to issue U.S. Notes costing little to taxpayers. ( 04 Jun )

LBJ becomes President - rescinds Kennedys Executive Order.

Medicare created.

"Coinage Act of 1965" introduced eliminating silver from U.S. coinage .

All gold backing removed from Federal Reserve Notes.

Bretton-Woods Agreement canceled.

Nixon signed Executive Order # 11490 to create Federal Emergency Management Agency. ( FEMA )

Trilateral Commission ( TC ) formed .

U.S. citizen allowed to own gold bullion.

Deposit Institutions Deregulation and monetary Control Act of 1980 is created. ( DIDMCA )

Ronald Reagan signs act authorizing a new 99.9% silver dollar coin .

In January, the 104th Congress introduced Senate Bill S.307 recommending a "Two-Tier" currency .

Treasury issues a new $100 currency allegedly to combat counterfeiters.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 02:15 - ID#243180)
for the newbies,,,,, BIS,,,,,

(Wed Feb 25 1998 02:17 - ID#411259)
..... He was my Commander in Chief .....

Regarding Ronald Reagan:

Say what you will, the man won the cold war. If you still have doubts, consult Mikial Gobachav, who described Reagan's intransigence on SDI as the primary reason for the fall of the Soviet Union; they could not hope to compete with our technology. The world is a better place today because of RR. Quite apart from his accomplishments, he also proved in the last two years of his presidency, that this country does just fine without a president. God Bless Ronald Reagan. An old, forgetful, non detailed oriented son of a bitch, but he made me proud to be an American again after the malaise of the Carter years + he kicked ass on the Soviets. Does anybody realize that the term "Soviet Union" - the portrait of all our worst fears of nuclear Armageddon and holocaust - does not even exist anymore? Who did that? I invite discussion, as I feel I have an eminently defensible position on this matter.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 02:20 - ID#31868)
I beg your forgiveness, the words tolerant-motive ------hmmmmmmm

(Wed Feb 25 1998 02:21 - ID#243180)
RJ,,,,, did U catch the PBS special "Reagan" ?,,,, got chills watching it,,,,

(Wed Feb 25 1998 02:21 - ID#255151)

Been thinking about the Big Bang on April
Fool's Day. My understanding is that
Japanese savers will be able to invest in any
currency. I would assume that there would be
a rush into higher yielding Dollars, D-Marks,
Pounds, etc. Do you think this might be a
trigger for the unwinding of the Yen-Dollar
carry trade? ( Gotta thank Bill Buckler for putting me onto this Big Bang idea )

(Wed Feb 25 1998 02:23 - ID#255284)
Oh yeah, really worth paying for
You amerikans can get pretty wierd, huh? Just stay over in america land, there's a good bunch o' loonies....

(Wed Feb 25 1998 02:28 - ID#200174)
They are talking the talk ... working toward a move away from the dollar.

Wednesday February 25, 12:44 am Eastern Time

ASEAN ministers meet to discuss trade idea

By Phil Smith

JAKARTA, Feb 25 ( Reuters ) - Southeast Asian finance ministers are expected to debate the possible use of local currencies for regionaltrade
when they meet on Friday for a two-day discussion of the region's financial crisis.
The idea of using local currencies to settle trade within the region has arisen because of the sharp fall in regional currencies against the dollar since

Such a scheme has won support because it should help reduce the region's dependence on the dollar and so help revive weak Asian currencies.

And finally, does anyone know where I can get a 1992 - 1997 gold dinar? Or how much they cost at this time? I thought I would ask the night shift. Off to sleep, to dream the golden dreams. Wonder if gold will get hammer tomorrow ( Another posted so I guess so. ) BBML

(Wed Feb 25 1998 02:31 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
From NEWS and VIEWS ( USA Gold ) Newsletter, feb 98:

The following are quotes published recently by James Blanchard in his GOLD NEWSLETTER. Please note the similarities between what you see and hear now in the financial press and what was being said in 1976, just before gold made its historic run to nearly the $900 level. At the time these comments were made, gold was in its darkest hour having collapsed to the $100 level under the pressure of US Treasury and IMF gold sales.
"I don't know where we go from here. I'd hate to say $90 an ounce, but I suppose even that is possible."......Wall Street Journal 7-20-76
"Thanks to the latest IMF dumping of the stuff ( gold ) , the great rush of '76 --to unload-- took on the makings of an old fashioned panic. But take heart, gold bugs! Dick Donelly, from his privileged perch in Commodities Corner, assures us that the intrinsic value is at least $5 an ounce."...........Barron's 7-22-76
"...Gold, that fair weathered friend, is distinctly out of fashion. Even to bring out the subject is to lay oneself open to sneers."...................
.......Financial World, Fall 1976
"There seems to be little to stop the price of gold going below $100 an ounce.".......................
...........The Economist, 9-11-76
"The new low for gold is an indication that the central banks of the world, particlarly the US Federal Reserve, and the West German Bundesbank, are determined to press on their plans to demonetize gold regardless what that does to the price."....
.................Business Week, 9-13-76
"The rebound in the gold price from the low of $103 in August to around $140 by mid-November probably isn't the beginning of another sustained boost because neither runaway inflation nor recession are immediate global threats. That's the view of gold watchers who aren't 'die-hard' gold bugs."......
............Money Magazine 12-76

jim c
(Wed Feb 25 1998 02:34 - ID#69280)
If I read your post correctly, and BIS is buying gold, it is interesting to note that nearly half of the countries that comprise of the BIS have little or no gold. How do countries ( that want to maintain gold ) , deal with the countries that want to unload their gold? Countries that want to keep gold would certainly know the negative effect of the sellers. Do they all work independently from each other? Just wondering.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 02:41 - ID#216251)
ASEAN conference
Someone ought to tell E-GOLD to send a representive.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 02:41 - ID#31868)
I was not ready for burgers and fries after Check Mate.

Strad Master
(Wed Feb 25 1998 02:43 - ID#250297)
Ronald Reagan
RJ: Bravo for your defense of Ronald Reagan. Why there wasn't jubillant dancing in the streets when he brought about the demise of the Soviet Union and an end to the Cold War is a mystery that I cannot fathom. Before the fall of the "Evil Empire", little children went to bed every night fearing that by morning they'd be vaporized in a nuclear holocaust. The reason he could afford to sit back and eat jellybeans during his Presidency is that he operated from a set of simple core values: 1. ) Communism is Evil and 2. ) High taxes are bad. On both, he is/was right. Then he knew how to surround himself with people who shared those values and knew how to impliment the nitty-gritty details. The ship of state pretty much ran itself after that.

jim c
(Wed Feb 25 1998 02:43 - ID#69280)
That is where I read and posted my quotes from. Sorry that I did not give USA GOLD credit for the quotes. I will in the future.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 02:45 - ID#411259)
..... I know what the

Hep -

You have gone on at some length about the 325 call and a couple others. You claim to be the bringer of the light, but half a dozen people on this forum called for the same numbers you did and did so without typing Three-Two-Five seven hundred times. Additionally, they gave specific reasons for the prediction which you have never even attempted to do. You predicted nothing that was not printed here before your proclamations appeared. I admit, for a time I wondered if you actually "knew" something, but your consistent lack of any substantive facts or figures to back up your predictions smells more of stopped clock than market acumen. If I am mistaken about this, I am sure you will call this to my attention - with specific posts and dates, which we both have. I have actually enjoyed many of your recent posts as you seem to have toned your excesses down a bit and improved you humor, but ask yourself. Do you contribute anything??? Perhaps some information we can not find at a dozen other sources, or some particular insight into the whys and wherefores of market movement, anything at all besides Three-Two-Five? If so, I would be interested to see it. This is no attempt to open old wounds or to begin new vendetta's; I will not play in any case, but when you cast a tainted aspersion over me, I would be happy to compare facts, I'm pretty good with 'em, bring it on.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 02:46 - ID#31868)
with forceful motives

(Wed Feb 25 1998 02:46 - ID#216251)
or should that be representative. Lunch is on me, tolerant1, thanks

(Wed Feb 25 1998 02:49 - ID#31868)
Like I have said before what will you all do with your new found wealth?

Will you give as you speak today?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 02:54 - ID#266105)

I cut my teeth in the now quaintly anachronistic
ol' Fidonet, loyal pooch. It is a different medium,
it had its cozy interiors, wondering what it is...
ash-flaking, coffe-dribbling bathrobe clad slobs
feeling entirely comfy at home. No in Kansas anymore.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 02:54 - ID#411259)
..... Play that Funky Music .....

Thanks Strad, I hope your trades are going well...... ( I suspect they are )

Strad Master
(Wed Feb 25 1998 03:01 - ID#250297)
...slowly climbing back to solvency...
RJ: You know I'm in good hands.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 03:18 - ID#393224)
G'day Sharefin
Jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeessuuus, mate. At 01:54 in the a.m. of Feb. 25th--you make the best post of the entire year!!!. I hope that when the Northerners awake from their 'beauty sleep'--although in Ted's case it's a lost cause--that they take 10-15 minutes to read and digest your post. The mind boggles--I'm going back to read it again!!!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 03:19 - ID#266105)

Tolerant1-- someone once said of style, I think in
a writing context, is being yourself on purpose.

Go silver, anyway.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 03:35 - ID#316193)
Sharefin, Re. Your 01:54

The following adds to the credibility of your post..

(Wed Feb 25 1998 03:36 - ID#316193)
URL Correction

A GoldTrader
(Wed Feb 25 1998 03:36 - ID#21455)
Last years sellers are todays buyers.

jim c ( Pete ) asked
"I have to wonder with all this selling WHO is doing all the buying?"
That easy ( Pete ) the people who sold short last year!


Bill El Zebub
(Wed Feb 25 1998 03:55 - ID#261352)
@farfel...always respected your contribution and leadership..Please?
Will the real farfel please stand up?

Bill El Zebub
(Wed Feb 25 1998 04:04 - ID#261352)
Heard Greenspan said something about some stocks being worth significantly
less in 12-18 months...What is it about Nike that makes me think

Bill El Zebub
(Wed Feb 25 1998 04:07 - ID#261352)
How does Bill Clinton keep his ankles warm? With his underwear.
Have I already done this joke? Sorry.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 04:15 - ID#266105)

That $150,000 lifestyle portrayed on TV doesn't sit well
on a median $35,000 household income squatting in a dismal, dirty
hovel. Much less squatting in say, Africa. So we turned it off and
now live like royalty. Still kinda dirty though.

These Japs now, albeit driving on the wrong side of the road,
and pulling their handsaws instead of pushing them, that's going
to be difficult seeing eye to eye. Compromise, maybe.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 04:41 - ID#228283)
Remember Pearl Harbor..

I do.Faites-vous une promesse..Buy gold and have fun soon!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 04:57 - ID#386279)
Look Pal!!
Forget gold ,silver and platinum!! Who put a rocket up palladium's ... err.. ahem...derriere???

Still waiting folks--"Catalytic-Converters-R-Us". Where are all those used C.C.'s you were gonna send me???

(Wed Feb 25 1998 05:13 - ID#248180)
@ Sharefin - 01:54 "The Sting"
Ahh mate, what a ripper!! Nick @C, I second the motion as best post of the year. I am stoked. A must read and it spells "BINGO"! Must return and study and absorb it.

When I returned from my beach patrol of the Great Southern Ocean Shores of Oz and logged on earlier this evening I thought "this Kitco forum stinks tonight, what's the use? Then I read:
RJ's post regarding VINO & PM'S and said oh well it can only get better; at least we are talking something I understand- VINO The nectar of the Gods. RJ happy you love your job as well. I think the jury is still out on Ronnie. All too much credit is given to Ronnie, when the real reason for the downfall of the Soviet's forms part of Sharefin's 01:54 post. The USA simply out-spent the Russians and pulled the greatest bluff in this century - "The Space Weapons Bluff or Star Wars Bluff" Had nothing to do with strong leaders or the best or worst man. Simple American Bullshit. Yes, Ronnie is a trained bullshitter a Hollywood ( puppet ) actor, he even has you fooled.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 05:31 - ID#413109)
RJ please be good enough to explain this a little further. I believe
this may be interesting for many-
Date: Wed Feb 25 1998 01:50
RJ ( ..... Bullion Exchange ..... ) ID#411259:

Wet -

I often exchange bullion for bullion coins on an ask to ask basis. No additional costs. Many of my
clients trade in bullion and take their profits in metal. Tax ramifications can be beneficially affected by
this strategy.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 05:34 - ID#248180)
Iraq cools & Slick Willie's Problems Heat Up!
The Drudge Report has some very interesting news regarding BC possibly Envoking Presidential Privilege Powers to protect his staff and friends.
Ain't Power Sweet. Maybe this will be good for gold as the potential of M/East War did not shift Au prices upward???

(Wed Feb 25 1998 06:21 - ID#393224)
Pour yourselves a cup of coffee, sit dow, and read Sharefin's 01:54!!
I'm goin' to bed. Nite all.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 06:26 - ID#284255)
Thanks for the comments.
We know,
Is always what it seems
And who amongst us
Can separate or tell
Dreamer from dreams
Or walk with sure feet
The narrow edge
That separates
A long dreamed heaven
From a long feared hell

Who knows
The twist of fate
The hard decision
That transforms the hell
Into desired heaven

Who knows?
It is best to pray
And have
That inner guidance
On the long hard way

(Wed Feb 25 1998 06:35 - ID#284255)
Y2K info +++
Well worth a read, print out and show your friends.
---------- "You're tense. Depressed. You forget where you live. You are a year 2000 programmer,
and your life is hell."
Year 2000: What? Me worry?

---------- Does PC stand for Possibly Compliant?
The Year 2000: Is Your PC Prepared?

---------- Once you've fixed your PC, start working on your Net
Is Your Intranet Ready for 2000?

Year 2000 problem also threatens E-mail

---------- Risk factors for buildings
Year 2000 glitches loom for building systems, too

---------- More Euro implications
Computers Not Ready For Euro Rollout

European firms not prepared for IT impact of euro

Year 2000 Campaigner Says Delay The Euro

---------- Moves towards Y2K certification
Revisiting Y2K certification ( by Peter de Jager )

Industry heavyweights tackle Y2K certification

---------- Patients will get impatient
Patient care to suffer as NHS fixes millennium bug

Hospitals trailing in Y2000 bug fix

---------- New York City's troubles
NYC Grapples With 'Year 2000' Computer Glitch

---------- Utilities and Y2K
Utilities zero in on Year 2000 problems

---------- Y2K costs could lead to an unbalanced budget
Y2K costs could sap Clinton's technology budget requests

---------- Lots of news from the legal front
SEC may seek more Y2K info,4,19391,00.html

Symantec sued over Y2K upgrade,4,19344,00.html

Y2K suits likely to keep coming,4,19404,00.html

Don't look to lawmakers for year 2000 relief

A legal solution for millennium bug

Year 2000 legal shields not in view

Legal teams get set for Millennium Bug's bite

Y2K legal bills will be substantial

Lawyers ready for fallout from millennium bug

(Wed Feb 25 1998 06:45 - ID#351224)
Sharefin 1.54
Nick Sharefin. What a bloody beauty! Sitting here sipping a Coopers or two, thinking what a pity those Kitcoites are degenerating into nasty Kitty fights. Then you pull out that BIS page. Is it kosher? If so, then it confirms what the good Lord told us all those years ago: "The love of money is the root of all evil". Nice one! does one protect the family from the inevitable stuff that must unfold???????????/

(Wed Feb 25 1998 06:56 - ID#284255)
Love that real ale.
Shout me a Coopers and I'll tell you a secret.

Buy real gold.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 07:05 - ID#289357)
COMEX breakdown 2/24


296,524 Registered
143,818 Elligible
440,439 Total Net change -97


31,931,554 Registered
57,816,378 Elligible
89,747,932 Total Net change -2,275,553

(Wed Feb 25 1998 07:09 - ID#419147)
Sharefin (1:54)
Great post!!!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 07:19 - ID#351224)
Cloudy but fine
No preservatives - no Additives - just like liquid AU
Seriously though, I've read these posts for a year or so and have gained enormous amounts of precious knowledge. What I still find hard to grasp is this. When the boom does come down - as it surely will - how is gold going to help me? I buy bullion/coin and stash it away. There's anarchy in the streets ( We're getting a taste of what's going to happen with Auckland/Brisbane and a few little power cuts - everything stops )
Add in a bit of Y2000 stuff and all of the extra NWO/Trilateral/Vatican/Bilderberger crap and paranoia creeps in. So I've got my bullion/AU coin - how is this traded? How is a market established for AU and its worth? How do I buy my food/water/power/send kids to school. Is the holding of AU just a way to become mega-wealthy in the New Society? Do you know what I am trying to say as one can get information overloaded - perhaps that's why the internet is tolerated by the PTB ( Powers That Be )
Any thoughts ( and avuncular guidance ) would be appreciated.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 07:38 - ID#284255)
What can we trade.
People, no matter how rich or poor will always trade.

If you had a pallet of Coopers Red,
And I had a huge esky of ice.
And the sun was hot and merciless.
Surely we could strike a trade.
Negotiate a deal where we were both happy - drunk.

Now if you had a nice beachfront block.
But a big mortgage which the bank was foreclosing.
Surely you would be willing to trade.
At an agreeable rate to both parties.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 07:52 - ID#289357)

I agree with your point, and this is part of my problem with ANOTHER's story. I it puzzling to me just how holdings of physical gold and silver would be used, in case of a financial collapse. Like you, I, too, have a moderate stash of this stuff, just in case.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 07:59 - ID#255217)
RJ @ 02:17
RIGHT ON, RJ! We need an AMERICAN back in the oval office to restore dignity , integrity and PRIDE to the Office of the President, NONE of which exist there now! A belated response, but felt it necessary.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 08:01 - ID#284255)
Perpetual debt?
The National Debt - watch the figures roll over live time.

"I place economy among the first and most important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt."
-Thomas Jefferson-

Avid chatter:
"Others ask, "who do we owe all this money to? Don't we just owe it to ourselves?" Some of it, yes. For example, if you buy a U.S. Savings Bond, or if the retirement fund you're in invests in government paper, you own some of it. Many businesses own government debt. Foreign countries and businesses also own it. If the government defaults, you lose the money owed you. So do all those other businesses and governments. The global economy collapses. Chaos reigns. Since that's not an acceptable alternative, the government must continually borrow more, and more, and more, to pay the debt it already owes. Each time it does so, the government deteriorates more, the environment suffers, the economy declines, and big corporations gain more and more control of the world."

"The news about more gold sales from Korea is weighing on the gold market, while Greenspan's comments on economy today and a slumping CRB index reinforce the idea that the economic scenario is bearish for gold," said Bill O'Neill, commodities research director forMerrill Lynch. In news Tuesday, the Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said a campaign led by South Korean financial institutions had collected 222.8 tons of gold worth more than $2.08 billion as of February 21, and of that total had exported had exported 180.8 tons of gold worth $1.7 billion. The campaign to collect gold has been running since January in a bid to help restore Korea's foreign exchange reserves. Citizens contribute gold bullion and jewelry to the campaign and will get paid in Korean currency in six weeks time. "The amount of gold collected by the Korean campaign is now the size of an average European central bank sale of the kind we saw last year and is becoming very significant," one New York analyst said.

Quixotic 1
(Wed Feb 25 1998 08:01 - ID#48200)
Red sky in the morn, paper be warned !!
Miles, your 7:19

I think you have made the first small step forward, of a "giant leap" backward for mankind. Your enlightened awareness and understanding of the events as they develop, will insulate and protect your family. An understanding of self-sufficiency and the ability to blend into the herd will assure your relative pampered survival.
Gold & Silver will allow you to retain some net worth and liquidity after the next holocaust. Even as the chief prognosticator portends, the paper storm is dark on the horizon.

Blue sky at night, 40k delight,
Red sky in the morn, paper be warned.

Gold for the good guysGMJ

(Wed Feb 25 1998 08:08 - ID#351224)
In our future unrosy scenario we have to agree on some points.
1 ) That AU is to be a "value" denomination of some kind.
This "value" has to be determined in an official capacity so that the "value" is recognised by all. What if "officially" it is decided that AU has no value and that E-credits of some kind are going to be the order of the new day?
2 ) Right now there are only a few people who are prepared to attribute a "value" to AU. It is being 'demon'itised by CB's, brokers, financial commentators et al and potrayed as just another commodity ( like Coopers Red ) . This perception - and perception is what our masters know that Joe Public understands - is all pervading. AU is being driven down to 'prove' that it has no inherent value, let alone stand as the backing for a future economy! This is the 'perception' of my friends and colleagues.
How is the sea change going to occur where AU DOES overcome this perception of just another commodity and gloriously transcend into a new future?
I'm a little bit of a doubting Thomas, unlike Thomas Cooper who knew EXACTLY where he was going!
PS. How DID you know that the bank is trying to sell me up?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 08:10 - ID#333127)
to Miles
IMHO anarchy is not a consideration for buying anything except a stockpile of guns, ammo and food. I buy the metals and metal stocks mainly as a hedge against inflation, deflation and currency problems. If they go up dramatically my property and pension most assuridly will go down and I probably come out even.
At this point the metals are cheap and again IMHO have dramatic upside potential, Buffett I think has that outlook. If you are young say no older than 50 I would have no problem accumulating metals and good mining stocks at these levels, time is on your side.
At some point everything is meant to be sold, our job is to pick those sell and buy points. It all boils down to buy low sell high.
I also think the Asian problem will impact us this year and with any luck the PM's will go up.

Quixotic 1
(Wed Feb 25 1998 08:15 - ID#48200)
Blue sky at night, 401k delight,
Red sky in the morn, paper be warned.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 08:22 - ID#284255)
Economics & fun
Threats to the Economic Future of Young Families & their Children

Dr. Ed Yardeni's Online Chart Rooms


(Wed Feb 25 1998 08:26 - ID#222231)
ALL, SSC and Silver
I pirated this post and take of of what you will. GO SILVER. GO SSC.

New Comex low again!!!!
Now we are below 90 million ounces and still falling!!!!
Comex supplies are now at 89.7 million ounces!!!!

Also Comex reported that silver demand for 1997 was so great
it caught them way off guard!!!! They also reported that supplies
will fall way short of demand again by at least 160 million
ounces. If comex is caught of guard again... well it will even be

Comex only has 89.7 mill left... this means shortfall will have to
be made up from somewhere else. Oh by the way... only 17%
of the silver mined each year comes from pure silver producers
like SSC. The other 83% comes from mining companies that
primarily mine base metals... so they will not kick up
operations just to come up with some extra silver to give to the
comex. And
guess what... base metals are cutting back production because
of record world supplies. This means they will have less silver
put on the market!!! Should mean even more shortage of silver
to me. Only pure silver producers like SSC can make up the
shortfalls... and its too late for that. Buffet knows this!!! That's
why he's recognized as the greatest investor the world has ever

An analyst on CNBC Tuesday stated that the most impacting
thing he belives the world markets will see in the coming year
will be the effect of Buffets silver play. He believes Buffet's
vision of the future value of silver will blow everyone away in
the months ahead.

In the last few weeks we have only seen the tremors of what
will happen to the price of silver over the next few years. It is
my opinion and firm belief that SSC will not report another
quarter of losses for many years to come. In golden eagle it has
been stated that the pending silver crisis will be the greatest
shortage of a commodity the world has ever seen to date.

Anyway, with Buffet taking a huge position in silver we can at
least expect something impressive to happen over the next few
months. All this can only be good for SSC.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 08:27 - ID#330175)
@ Cape Breton
Mornin!------April Gold up 1.10 and S+P futures up 4.70

(Wed Feb 25 1998 08:47 - ID#153102)
Ronald Reagan My Commander In Chief
The lasting legacy of Ronald Reagan and his nominee George Bush: 4+ Trillion of public debt.

"I place economy among the first and most important virtues, and public
debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must
not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt."
-Thomas Jefferson-

The military spirit has replaced the civic spirit of res publica in America. The 1776 foundation of a continent of Free and Independent States inhabited by free and independent people is rotted. The people are busy making money. Political people quarrel over trivia. Political correctness is legal policy. Nuke 'em is discussed as foreign policy. Knowledge of law is a specialty. Those who are ignorant are unaware of being ignorant or boast of it. Those who are deceived are unaware of being deceived or are resigned to it. Dark, dark roiling clouds filled with lightning are just visible on the horizon.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 09:11 - ID#153102)
The Gnomes of Zurich
There is only one place in the world that is safe for personal gold and that is the tiny Confederation of Switzerland, much admired and recommended for its government by Patrick Henry.

But the Bank of International Settlements is run by Central Bankers and the debt system of currency is their care.

The debt system of currency will succumb to no plot, no secret plan of the gnomes of Zurich. It will succumb to the "moral hazard" inherent in it, the moral hazard of something for nothing and usury and their offspring, derivatives and public debt, and to the steady accumulation of gold for its intrinsic worth, its incorruptibility, and attendant moral cultural value by people and countries.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 09:30 - ID#222231)
You seem a little imbittered and sad this am. Do't worry, it will only get worse.

Blame it all on those three midgets in a garage in Brooklyn that are running this world and in the process destroying our beloved US of A.

Where there's life there's hope. ( I do'nt know who said that, but he must have been looney too! )

(Wed Feb 25 1998 09:30 - ID#348286)
@RJ 2:17
Have to agree with you there. Ronald Reagan was the best pres the USA ever had. One other example; when he fired the air traffic controllers, the media was screaming about airport disasters and system breakdown ---- never happened and RR won out.
If it were possible, I would take RR and appoint him prime minister for life in Canada, over all the scumbags and leftist bums we have had here in
North USA......

(Wed Feb 25 1998 09:32 - ID#228100)
sharefin - Those Y2K sites are great!
In the past year, I've worked with a couple of Fortune 100 companies on financial/logistic systems projects. Everyone has a Y2K "project", which consists of some programmers sitting around looking at code all day. No one actually fixing anything.

Just go to the Microsoft site. Absolutely nothing has been "fixed" yet. With millions of users, you'd think Microsoft would have Y2K compliant versions of Excel, Access, and Win95 available. If thousands of programmers at Microsoft can't fix THEIR software, can your local bank?

What's your forecast for worldwide economy? I see an impact similiar to the "energy crisis" of the 1970's. Lots of changes, many opportunities. Some companies ( especially smaller banks ) simply won't survive Y2K.

Also, from 1973 to 1980, the price of gold went from ~100 to ~600. ( Can't find historical data for silver. )

(Wed Feb 25 1998 09:34 - ID#288331)
Not much discussion on KITCO this morning. Where are the regulars?

On Korean gold sales, it is interesting to me that at a time when Korea's financial system, i.e., paper assets, failed them, they turned to gold as the one "asset of value" upon which they could depend. This Korean experience is testimony to the fact that gold is, as it has always been, a dependable store of wealth. In my opinion Korean policy is a failure in that they exported this gold rather than retain it with their CB to shore up their currency. $2 billion cannot represent more than a few days reprieve from their economic woes. Their currency being cut in half in recent months will have a more lasting impact.

Nevertheless, it is interesting that if Korea did, in fact, export 180.8 tons of gold in recent weeks, the POG did not drop more than it has over the past few days. Total CB sales worldwide last year were about 400 tons so one would think sales of this magnitude from Korea would have resulted in a sharper decline than it did.

On the silver front, still no bottom in place. Speculators who jumped on the WB bandwagon must be shaken out of the market. Then next upward move can begin. I am concerned about break below $6.40. Next trendline comes in at about $5.95. Cannot see reason on charts for other support areas, but would like to hear from anyone with access to more information than I have.

Also, I am confused about WB's impact on current silver prices. If WB is in fact taking delivery on 40 million ounces between now and March, why would those contracts be as weak as they have been? Is WB stretching out delivery? Is WB loaning out some of his silver? Does anyone have any information on this?

As mentioned earlier, unless the fundamentals change or are different than we understand them to be, the price of silver must move higher. It may be irratic and it may move in wide swings, but it will move up!

Have a good day and keep the faith!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 09:34 - ID#287207)
Provincial taxes down 22% Municiple taxes down 5% Federal taxes down 5+% Enconomy expands 3%
Debt reduction Program in place, Balanced budget for next 3 years and STILL get free brain surgery.
Current Kitco strategy ----- Short the C$

(Wed Feb 25 1998 09:52 - ID#212323)
Gold Demand Trends covering 1997 now on World Gold Council's site.
GDT No. 22 ( February 1998 ) was published on the WGC web site today at 1:30 London time. Follow the link from the Welcome page. Go to
-- Parn --

(Wed Feb 25 1998 09:58 - ID#284255)
What's ahead?
I am not involved in programing at all.
Just a casual PC user.

My guess to the chaos that will come out of Y2K will be trying to reconnect the interconnectivity/continuity of all the networks.
It has taken many years to establish this connectivity/continuity.
And I can't see it being replaced back to its current level very quickly.

Reminds me of the power company who recently checked their grid for Y2K compatability. They found 95% of embedded chips OK. Only 5% failure rate. Then they said that one chip down could bring the whole grid down. Therefore they have to check all chips.

That's one big job when you look at the problem on a global scale.
We have just seen similiar problems bring down power in Auckland, NZ and also Queensland, OZ.
Just a taste of what's to come.

As to what I'm doing - well -
Removing all debt and liquidating all assets.
Then off to a quiet town with a small population.
Just to get a quiet perspective as the clock rolls over.
Who knows I might just want to stay there.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 10:03 - ID#316193)
Warren Buffett's Father Had Wise Words..

(Wed Feb 25 1998 10:07 - ID#233199)
@miles__A (Cloudy but fine)
I too hope to never live through anarchy, but in addition to having a bit of gold layed away think of this......

Bleach.... ( stash some bleach to purify water )
Salt......... ( worth its weight in gold? Think of long ago... )
Nutrition... ( a staple and some vitamins ...rotate your stock.. )

(Wed Feb 25 1998 10:21 - ID#328159)
Year2000 9:32 - Silver/Gold prices 1792-1997
United States Silver Prices, 1792-1997 ( annual high, low and close prices for an ounce of silver in U.S. dollars )
United States Gold Prices, 1792-1997 ( annual high, low and close prices for an ounce of gold in U.S. dollars )

Global Financial Data Long-Term Historical Data

(Wed Feb 25 1998 10:22 - ID#153102)
Thanks for you concern. Just call 'em as I see 'em.

Among pygmys, more than a midget is a giant and so by them, received as a hero.

Hope springs eternal in the human breast.
Man never is, but always to be, blessed.

Going long on bananas.

Mike Stewart
(Wed Feb 25 1998 10:30 - ID#270253)
Technical Update
Continued weakness in gold and mining issues has caused the McClellan Summation Index for Toronto Mining Issues to turn over and decline over the last week. This indicates that a defensive posture is the best policy until it turns up. The decline is moderate at this point.

The New Lows on Toronto Mining Issues have expanded to 6 or 7 per day. This just slightly above the benchmark safe level of 5 or less. No large or mid sized firms are on the list of new lows. This is encouraging as the new lows are not expanding at this time. The levels are much lower than six weeks ago.

I keep a trendline that rises at 2% ( componded weekly ) from suspected lows in the Toronto Gold Index. In a strong market this line usually contains the trend, with corrections ending right around the trendline. It is currently at 6025. That is almost exactly where the index closed yesterday ( 6026 ) .

In Nov 92 and Jan 93, we had a "W" bottom with lows 34 trading days apart. We are now 30 days from the Jan 98 low.

We are at a time where it gold should resume its uptrend. If not here, we are going lower. I want to see the summation index move up before restoring my fully invested position.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 10:32 - ID#153102)
@7000 tons of gold
"gold is not subject to demand by American citizens. It could all be
shipped out of this country without the people having any chance to
prevent it." - Buffet's father speaking in 1948

(Wed Feb 25 1998 10:47 - ID#330175)
Selby....................from "the ugly amerikan'-----------are you sayin-----
you think the Canadian dollar will go down and not up? ( Can. Fed. DEBT is 92% of GDP )

(Wed Feb 25 1998 10:48 - ID#348286)
Wow, that quote couldn't be any truer today. The American public is obsessed by the Microsoft's and Oracle's and paper.
They don't give 2 s**ts about safety or real assets, hence the indifference to Gold.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 10:52 - ID#316193)
Tidbit - The Man Who Gave Away 500 Tons of Gold

(Wed Feb 25 1998 10:56 - ID#411259)


Regarding your question of my November / December belief that 6.00 silver was un-maintainable:

We had this conversation once already, in addition to my original post about my woeful silver shorts. It is the worst trade I made last year. To drag the cat out from under the house once more:

After watching one warehouse scam after another over the years, silver looked like it was setting up the longs in yet another shell game around 5.40, to get brutally slammed into the basement as the "missing" silver magically begins to appear in new warehouse numbers. This has happened no less than four times in the last three years and at 5.40 it looked as is the familiar game would play again.

I put in shorts at around 5.40 and got creamed and stopped out on the 40 cent gap up 12/10/97. I then watched the price rise through $7, unwilling to chase the market, and waited for a drop. I bought at about 6.55 on the way back up to 7.20 and sold most longs above $7. I begun adding new longs at 6.48 and down and will continue to buy the dips.

I am never 100% right in these markets, just more right than wrong and my rights tend to be much bigger than my wrongs. When I'm on the wrong side of the trade, I won't go down with the ship, I'll get on the right side of the market. I am a warrior for the working day, or maybe just a market whore. I just want lots of movement.. In my direction

Can this be the last time you bring up my worst trade of 1997? Could we speak of enormous profits in the early stages of the palladium squeeze when my 10,000 ounce trades twice a day literally moved the market 8 or 15 dollars by the shear force of the buy I just made. Palladium was a self fulfilling prophesy then. My clients covered all costs and were in net profits by the weight of their own purchase. It was grand indeed. Or maybe that I personally sold more than 3% of all platinum coins sold in the world in 1997, most below 390? This is just a percentage of my 1997 platinum trades as I traded three times that amount in platinum bullion between 400 and 450 with moderate to great success.

Or perhaps we can discuss my strident warnings last summer of much lower gold prices from 350 on down. I detailed my very profitable gold shorts on these pages ( before not after ) and covered all at 305 - 308 the first trip down there. Some of my gold shorts were from 380 so the net profit was way big. I have not been short any metal since I covered all gold shorts and see no short in sight worth the risk of the potential explosive upside; especially in silver and platinum, which is where I'm concentrating my efforts. I'll post some new info about platinum in a day or two. The only short I would consider is a gold rally to about 325 and a new high in the Dow, THAT might be a good play. Must keep an eye on the big picture though.

OK, I have mixed a heaping helping of boasting with my contrite explanations of the "Fantastically Misguided, 180 Degree Out, Upside Down, Dad Blasted, Dismal Silver Short of 1997" and would prefer to put this one to bed. Thrice at bat with this story is twice too many.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 11:00 - ID#22956)
the chicken or the egg......huh?
I am confused here Mr. Gold Trader.....

Date: Wed Feb 25 1998 03:36
A GoldTrader ( Last years sellers are todays buyers. ) ID#21455:

jim c ( Pete ) asked
"I have to wonder with all this selling WHO is doing all the buying?"
That easy ( Pete ) the people who sold short last year! all this great wisdom you throw at us........... ( hmmmm ) .... ( get ready for the BIG question ) ......... ( ready? ) ......

Who is now doing the selling?? That's right.....if the sellers are now buyers are there NEW sellers now?? Are the old buyers now new sellers? Are they both buyers and themselves ( that doesn't make a whole lotta sense ) ? Are they a *different* group of sellers? A whole new breed of sellers? Were they cloned? Hatched? Formed from Adam's rib??? Chickens? Eggs? What?? Who are the sellers NOW??? Huh? Pray Tell! It doesn't look easy to me! I humbly await your response............. ( confused ) ............. scratch my head

btw, Bart you know what must be done. The rules of engagement ( last night ) have been crossed ( quite badly, and that's comin from ME! ) . Offense has been taken. I am sure that you have already taken the proper steps....EH?

jim c
(Wed Feb 25 1998 11:06 - ID#69280)
Open Interest
Will someone out there explain to me whether rising open interest is bearish or bullish for gold. It seems to me that many sites seem to contradict each other. Some say bullish and some say bearish. Why the difference in opinions. Also, why is the April contract price more important than the spot price, some use spot quotes while others use future prices. Just a novice trying to understand.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 11:06 - ID#197312)
and He died in alcohol induced stupor,depressed to the
point of willing himself to die at a wateful age.He
wasn't his own hero,very sad sad story,all the gold and power
in the world can't make you happy.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 11:06 - ID#411259)

EB -

Tried to return your e-mail but it had a bungee attached and snapped right back at me. Your e-mail address is letting you down. Back to the office.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 11:08 - ID#288331)
Interesting action in futures today. Near-term contracts recovering, July contract is up, but later contracts are down sharply. Is WB deferring delivery of remaining contracts to July? If so, why? Any ideas?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 11:11 - ID#22956)
Hey Silver Boy
Now.... ( in my best Jim Nanz Stoooopid questions of the Olympics voice ) .....

How did it feel to get creamed on that silver play back in 1997? Did this trade make you a stronger person? Did you feel the entire wait of the country ( usa ) on your shoulders? And.....what is your favorite breakfast cereal? Movie? Color? Position? ..... ( duh ) ~~~~!!

go silver!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 11:18 - ID#22956)
and the mud comes tumbling down.......(gold too?)...
Ted, the drought you say? Wow. Did you see all the roads and houses sliding AWAY?? Did you see that CHP ( California Highway Patrol ) car, with the two officers STILL in it get buried?? It was COMPLETETELY BURIED! One of the officers was a customer of ours ( glasses ) . It is Baaaaaaad out here. The next week we are supposed to be dry. Time to scoop the mud and rebuild the houses. Mother Nature was PISSED! I am tired of her. rent a dumptruck

go silver!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 11:19 - ID#237149)
@ RJ

What do you think it will take for silver to bounce back up since the COMEX warehouse is plunging everyday and yet nothing happens with silver spot price? Will it happen by commitment dates in April or May, or do you forsee something coming in sooner? What about the spot price, can you see it going down lower than the $6.00 level? I'm holding long on Silver at more or less $6.48.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 11:30 - ID#41170)
EB- that El Nino fella issa kickin our BUTT here in LA to.
Rain, rain, rain and 85MPH winds. Last week a login crew was passin infront of my house on a state hwy and a tree blew over on them,
I had to cut them out with my chin saw and load into the ambulance.
Now that issa enough.
I got a meeting in Monterey in April- PLEASE STRAIGHTEN THINGS OUT BY THEN. Enough issa enough.

Tally Ho

(Wed Feb 25 1998 11:34 - ID#228100)
POG - Baker Trend
Kitco not only provides us this Discussion Group, but also historical data:

From this source, I pulled the monthly average POG into an Excel spreadsheet, and saw an obvious trend: Historically, the POG goes up ( 1-2% per month ) for six months beginning in March, then beginning in September, it goes down for six months.

Anyone ever notice this Baker Trend: heating up, then cooling down

(Wed Feb 25 1998 11:36 - ID#316193)
Michael Kosares Gives His Morning Report

(Wed Feb 25 1998 11:46 - ID#57232)
Market Euphoria -- looks impressive
All: With all of that money pouring into the market, with other markets not looking so good ( flight to safety ) -- it is possible that the US markets could make it all the way to y2k. All of this is too rareified for me, so I will continue to choose contrarian markets. I think if the markets continue to look strong, the precious metals markets will do reasonably well.
I think the only things that could bring down the US markets before y2k are going to be external:
1 ) XXXXgate
2 ) War -- Liklihood receeding as long as Saddam 'behaves'
3 ) World financial crisis -- european fallout from SEAsian debt defaults.
4 ) Return of inflation -- El Nino - induced commodity price surge?

Japan and China are wild cards.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 11:49 - ID#410114)

Green span said that he sees no way to resolve the Euro/y2k problem

and that this could cause disruptions.

He is also very worried about the y2k problem here in the US and really doesn't know what to do about it.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 11:52 - ID#426220)

Year2000: REf Your "Historically, the POG goes up ( 1-2% per month ) for six months beginning in March, then beginning in September, it goes down for six months." This is an intersting observation - especially in relation to the historical price increase of the Gold & Silver Stock Index ( XAU ) .

Since the creation of the XAU in the mid-1980s, the Gold & Silver Stock Index has risen 3 to 5 times the price increase in gold. Therefore, if the "POG-Baker Trend" begins by the Ides of March to reassert itself, we might be seeing the following price increases by late September in the XAU:

@gold up 1%/mo and XAU 3 Times = XAU will rise to 83
@gold up 1%/mo and XAU 5 Times = XAU will rise to 91
@gold up 2%/mo and XAU 3 Times = XAU will rise to 95
@gold up 2%/mo and XAU 5 Times = XAU will rise to 112

Assumes XAU base today at 70

Were history to repeat, many individual gold and silver stocks would demonstrate considerably more appreciation than that of the XAU.

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Wed Feb 25 1998 11:56 - ID#26395)
Survey - Rh - ANDOTHER stuff
To WetGold: I post only under one name. I have no better idea than anyone else who ANOTHER is or where he's from. But if you insist on believing that I use ANOTHER name, I really have no problem with that.

To Chas: The rhodium quotes come from Johnson Matthey. They're updated on our site only a few times a week. Uncertain supply from Russia is said to be causing the current runup. It's up another $50 today.

To Heavy Hitter: Bye Bye

TO ALL: To improve this site, set rates for "full text" mode, and gain some demographics on who lurks and who participates, we're creating a survey. I'm asking anyone who has any interesting questions that should be added to post them or send me an email at The results will be made available everyone who responds.

PH in LA
(Wed Feb 25 1998 11:58 - ID#225408)
Sharefin's post at Wed Feb 25 1998 01:54
There doesn't seem to be much discussion today about Sharefin's 1:54 post ( from Dennis Birch's Resource Stock Digest, Feb. 1998 ) which was hailed by many as the post of the year this morning. When I came upon it while going over the posts of the morning I felt a chill go up and down my back ( please forgive the clich ) because of how it confirms what ANOTHER has been saying...right down to the big trader in the the yen carry trade and gold carry trade. ( see the post )

This post when considered together with ANOTHER's thoughts make the tedium of the low tone here for the past several days all worth it.

PH in LA
(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:06 - ID#225408)
Re: nomination of Sharefin's "post of the year"

Glad you are here today. Please see the Sharefin @ 1:54 am today. Japan wildcard indeed!!!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:08 - ID#57232)
Sharefin's 1:54 post
sharefin -- excellent post! My take on this is that the Japan Dollar/treasury connection, and the Gold/dollar connection may not really be a conspiracy. But that really matters very little, as the US dollar has been pushed up anyway. When the US economy fades, for whatever reason, more treasuries will be sold, the Japanese yen will go up, and Gold will go up. It is highly likely, by the way, that much of the dollar buying was coming from Europe to keep the dollar strong during the critical period when Europe had to have a favorable balance of trade to launch the EURO. And -- we must not forget that the smaller Europan CB's sold their gold because they were told that France and Germany would dominate the gold buying and selling to support the EURO.

So things are probably more complex than a simple conspiracy -- but the basic process of pushing up the dollar, and pushing down gold -- is still accurate.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:08 - ID#342376)
I agree with PH in LA, Read Sharefin's 01:54
I would appreciate commentary on the outcome of all that if it where to be true.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:11 - ID#287129)
RJ; Thanks for the post
Thanks, RJ, for sharing your experience with us. Your third posting of that experience was the FIRST time that I had read it, and I appreciated your honesty. I've been a client with MONEX for several years, and have been far less fortunate in most of my I'm hoping that 1998 will help me recover my losses. I'm one of many who has gotten excited and relieved every time silver starts to climb, only to have my hopes dashed and smashed to bits and pieces every time the shorters drive the price of silver back down -- seemingly with a vengeance. To say that it has been frustrating is putting it very mildly. I will not post the four-letter words that I've said outloud, and sometimes to my very patient and kind broker at MONEX, who has ( in my opinion ) always attempted to advise me with sincerity and professionalism. The problem has not been with your company, it has been with market manipulation and many of us making the right decisions at the wrong time. the question remains: will silver FINALLY go up for real this spring??? There is so much conflicting information on the Internet ( and in the various media ) that I'm beginning to wonder whether anyone really knows for sure. Perhaps it's part of a disinformation campaign?


(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:12 - ID#22956)
Palladium and other stuff...

Bravo Bart.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:16 - ID#365216)
Need Y2K preparation advise
I am very much concerned about protection of assets in the wake of
the strong possibility of a Y2k Computer glitch which will disrupt
Brokerage accounts, bank accounts, storage records, etc. Is there
anyone else out there considering converting all their "electronic
assets" into cold cash and precious metals? Just think what just
this action by a small percentage of the investment community would
do to the price of PMs ( and stocks ) !

If I were WB, I would be taking delivery of those 130 million
ounces for the long haul ( at least until after 2000 ) .

Don't forget other survival preps like water and food storage, etc.,
just in case power grids, food supply lines, etc. become disrupted
via the millenium bug. Your family and friends may be counting on
you as the difference between surviving or not. SPREAD THE WORD

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:17 - ID#57232)
Logging off!
Bart- thanks for your post.

RJ -- appreciate your honesty -- and your tolerance of uncalled for attacks by others. I have always felt your posts were as honest as anyone could make them, and your admission of failed trades is an example of this. There are a few others on this site who could learn from your example. But is is often the ones who need the advice the most that do not listen.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:20 - ID#246224)
38% of executive IT managers ..
.. are planning on pulling their money out of banks prior to Y2K roll over. ( recent InfoWorld poll )

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:23 - ID#424345)
Who has questions? I have guesses!!
Silverfox: While I do not personally have much more solid data than you do there have been a couple of posts in the past here that *may* explain what is happening with respect to the rest of Warren's silver.

Early in the year a number of people posted that a lot of silver was going to refiners from dealers who had been carrying silver inventory for years and was only too glad to get it off their hands. ( The refiners are necessary to convert the silver to COMEX standard bars ) I seem to recall that one person with connections to refiners was speculating that as much as 40 mil oz would come on the markets.

The same is true for London. I suspect that silver is *being drawn from the heavens* with the very high lease rates and high prices.

However, the markets *may* be looking at the base of the valley and not the other side. No doubt this *could* be a result of the alleged fight between a bullion bank and a fund with 20 mil oz in the futures. However, even with this purported flood of silver coming from India and all the worlds silver dealers we still see lease rates at historic highs with Bart showing the one year rate starting to creep up again.

The action of the futures in the face of current lease rates smack to me of very big money "leaning" on comex while they accumulate as much "loose" silver out there that they can. To me this market looks like accumulation by very big, very smart money.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:24 - ID#255151)

Agree that sharefin's 01:54 post is required reading. Not to be overlooked, however, are the posts of Miles_A. I need to know more about Cooper's Red. Specifically, is this available in the U.S.?? Will it make me want to shout? Go Gold!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:26 - ID#365216)
Skip and RJ,

I too have been a customer of MONEX since the early 1980's
and have lost more money than I care to mention ( $50K+ )
trying to wait out the predictions of $50-$200 silver by
people like Jerome Smith and various newsletters. I have
4 bags of junk silver being stored by MONEX for me and at
this point am more concerned with making sure they are tied
to my ownership by more than a computer entry ( did someone
say Y2K? ) My broker at MONEX has been for the last two months
or so been trying to talk me into a leveraged buy of more junk
coins. Leveraging is how I lost my shirt over the last 15 years
or so. My advice is to buy with 100 % margin as much as you
can, even take delivery if you have a secure site, and enjoy
the ride while being able to sleep during the dips.

Those Platinum Eagles still look good but I am shopping for someone
cheaper than MONEX.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:28 - ID#153102)
@Sharefin's 1:54 post
I have already posted that I do not see the BIS in the role of the gnomes of Zurich plotting against the debt currency system.

I will add this observation. In both the Far East and in the Mid-East the strength of the debt currency system is often proportional to the number of carrier groups deployed. What are euphemistically called "security arrangements" include armaments as well as currency. The security strings on Japan and the Saudi often seem overlooked by those making purely financial analysis.

Since Japan as a policy has low interest rates and desperately needs economic stimulation, the prospect that Japanese rates will rise above American rates and reverse the yen carry depends entirely on whether the yen moves toward parity with the $. And for that to occur Japan must be prepared in all respects to handles the very negative American reaction.

I thought Greenspan's allusion to "intelligence gathering" on "international economic developments" spoke volumes.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:28 - ID#288295)
mozel@7000 tonnes

FWIW - I emailed all the relevant info on the 7000 tonnes ad, along with the suspect company info to my two ( very ) conservative Senators on Monday....Kinds of guys who ( even though they work for the govt ) would not like to see our gold sold.....waiting for a response.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:29 - ID#28593)
Donald, today's Debt Disclaimer...[China speaks]
SCMP--Business Wed Feb 25, 1998

Speaking after meeting Peoples' Bank of China governor Dai Xianglong, Donald Tsang Yam-kuen described Moody's comments as "lacking
objectivity and truth".

The Hong Kong Government does not have foreign debts, so the move
does not have much concrete effect on us.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:31 - ID#269409)
@ RJ....silver
Re your 10:56...I appreciated your post. I was in no way trying to bring up a past "bad trade", just looking for more comforting rationale as to why we silver bulls may be on the "right side". In fact it's your expertise, which is considerable, that I was trying to draw out.

As JTF said, you're one of the few here that exercises complete honesty, in trades, intellectually and otherwise. Telling it like it is, and letting the chipd fall where they may. And unlike a lot of us amateur traders, you're a professional trader, with your finger on the pulse of the metals market minute by minute, and a genuine understanding of all the behind the scenes shennanigans that the rest of us don't see.

Thus, your input is very highly valued, by all of us I think, ( with the exception fo a handful of moronic types who shall remain nameless ) .

Again, thanks for the post....

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:32 - ID#153102)
Great. Hope my suspicions are entirely unfounded.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:32 - ID#32078)
Joberg gold index
Does anyone have a URL for an accurate quote on the Johannesburg gold index during the day, at least until it closes?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:35 - ID#197311)
Woha jado hey wo SIVER!!!!!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:38 - ID#246224)
The possibilities must be considered. The technical and business problems will ( to what ever degree they appear ) be multiplied by the panic reaction of the public as they, to late, try to prepare themselves for the inevitable.

Certainly discretion is advised since angry mobs do not obey laws. As my father warned once he would not want to be known as a Mormon since most people knew Mormon's often have secured stores of food. Similarly people who run around telling everyone to hoard food, ammo, guns and gold, etc will probably be the first to be taken out, if it ever gets to that point. Last Fall I mentioned that it would be important not to look to well insulated from the difficulties of one's neighbors. Indeed we will, if we do, suffer together; and should do so. This is a societal problem.

My greatest concern is that we as a people may desire a governmental salvation and trade away precious rights for some form of security. Things may spiral out of control in a way we are unaccustomed to here. It is something to consider over a long period of time with a cool head and warm heart.

We may find that as much as we desire to assure our own security we never will find it until we also secure our community, nation and world as well. Beware those who say they will do this for you. This is the ultimate abrogation of responsibility.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:45 - ID#28593)
Something to chew on, from the intellectual beef jerky stash...
"...the new Asian order will perforce encompass the entire region with no regard to the borders of nation-states--meaning that a hegemon will inevitably be required to maintain it. In other words, the post-cold-war situation in both Europe and East Asia calls for an "imperial order" in which power radiates outward from a hegemonic center across the borders of surrounding states.

What country in East Asia is destined to play the role of empire-builder seized by Germany in Europe? Whenever parallels are drawn between Germany and an East Asian country, Japan is invariably cited.
And we Japanese ourselves are wont to believe that our country and Germany have much in common. ...

The country that is aspiring to empire in East Asia in the manner of Germany in Europe is therefore not Japan, but China."


(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:47 - ID#33650)
Larryn_A / Joburg
go to

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:49 - ID#289357)

Senators Helms and Faircloth of 'Nowth Calina'

If these two can't flush it out, it ain't flushable......

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:51 - ID#424345)
More Fun Than A Barrel of "Thoughts!"
Sharefin's 1:54 post has to be the winner so far in the global conspiracy category. Casts some new insights into what ANOTHER may be all about. Who knows if it is even remotely true but it is *concievable*. I dunno about the billion ounces owned by the BIS, however if you count the major european CB's as part of the BIS ( as any good conspiracy fan would ) then the numbers are not that far out.

Certainly the Yen carry and gold carry trade have worried me for some time and I made a number of posts about this early last year. However, I do not know what the magnitude of these trades are like. Certainly they could be very substantial. But a trillion dollars??

However, even 50 to a 100 billion dollars worth of silliness could create endless opportunities for mischief - whether your are a restless asian plutocrat or a sneaky gnome.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:52 - ID#365216)
Thanks for your response, Allen. You make a good point not to
appear to be more prepared than your neighbors lest yours be
the first place to get looted. There will be plenty of time
to help out friends and neighbors discretely if need be. As
usual, our spiritual well-being should be our most important concern
followed by our selves, our loved ones, and society in general.

I recommend visiting Gary North's Y2K website and ordering his
Y2K survival guide/ newsletter ( Firestorm Chats and Remnant Review )
for more info.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:53 - ID#255151)
Russian Military Goes Online In Russian only for now. ( sorta Gold related, eh? )

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:53 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Are we having fun yet?

Anyone thinking that gold can't go to the moon is nuts. However, place that right alongside of the almighty debt-ridden buck going to hell in a hand basket! Bottom line is that gold will not particularly decline in regards to other needful commodities and toilet paper will have a more valuable usage than dollars will.

RJ -- Always good to read your perspectives on the markets.

Seems some silver stops got hit. Looking at the chart, I don't see any reason for it to be over yet though. 'Course, silver can be flakey that way at times.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 12:59 - ID#246224)
Conjecture Y2K aftermath
As I consider the Y2K as a global problem with the potential for many types and degrees of disruption one scenario comes to mind. This scenario is that the damage may be so wide spread and yet survivable that world-wide opinion is that adhoc, seat of the pants systems can no longer be relied upon to be the foundation of world or national commerce. It is possible that we may see a political solution which everyone will agree to: a world-wide, trans-national system of commerce and information built to rigorous standards on the ashes of the old system. The vision would be "never again" and "a bright and certain future". This problem may provide such a universal feeling of need and willingness to secure the future that any system would be acceptable so long as it secures our future prosperity and peace. Read Revelations 13:1-18

The Hatt
(Wed Feb 25 1998 13:08 - ID#294232)
Not In The Silver Market But Have To Admit Was Looking For Breakout!
I am puzzled by the silver market, it seems to me that perhaps silver is pulling back and that Gold may lead silver out of its down trend! Who ever said it was easy? Supply and demand??????????????

(Wed Feb 25 1998 13:13 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Interesting that the metals stock indices are up at this time. Prelude of things to come?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 13:20 - ID#227290)
Repost of Monday's analysis
To all.,

I posted this info on Monday and it was basically ignored. So here it is again. This is no joke, the markets are moving pretty strongly in line with the technical indicators I follow.

The Preacher

In silver, the 100-day MA stands at $5.81 and the 200-day MA stands at $5.25. So the price is still well above those, but could gravitate back towards them.
On the weekly chart, the stochastics have rolled over and are heading downwards.
The daily chart of Coeur d'Alene has a sizable gap between $9.25 and $10.00. The current price is $10.50 and the price has been moving toward that gap for two weeks. Failure to close this gap will be very bullish for shares of CDE. And that's my forecast as of now: the gap won't get closed.
A similar situation exists on the daily charts of SSC and Hecla Mining.

Gold has undergone a nearly 50% retracement of the Jan/Feb upmove. I'd like to see the retracement stop above $287, but any bottom above the Jan low of $277.50 will be a bullish development.
Several of the large NA mining companies saw their shares close at or near the high of the day today  a short-term bullish indicator.
On the weekly chart, we could very well be seeing a head-and-shoulders bottom form. If the current retracement ends above $281.50, we'll be in business.

The Jan/Feb rally in Durban Deep actually moved the stock well above its 100- and 200-day Mas. The MAs have now flattened out and begun to turn slightly upward. The share price has fallen down to them.
On the daily chart, there is a gap around the $2.10 level that is drawing the price to it. This gap should provide a bottom. And it's only 1/8 away from the current price. So DD could be poised for another rally.

The XAU has retraced 59% of its Jan/Feb rally. It closed right near its high today; short-term bullish. The weekly stochastics say it's about to bounce upwards ( once the red line falls toward a rising blue line ) . A head-and-shoulders bottom looks to be forming in the XAU as well as in gold.
Still, like in the gold market, moving above the 100- and 200-day MAs is the key. I think we'll get a test of that either later this week or in early March.

I don't know why all the pessimism here today. Two weeks ago the Dow gave a major buy signal. It shouldn't be surprising to see it rise. The Dow has showed great strength near the close the past two days.
NASDAQ and S&P500 hit new highs today and the Transports were very strong.

Still, although today wasn't quite a knockout blow to the dollar, it came close. An outside day of importance in my view, very bearish. It will take much for the dollar to rise above today's highs before it first makes a significant move downwards.

And the bonds don't look too good, either. No sir. The yield looks due to test the 100-day MA at 6.00%. That's not saying a lot, but we could be at the point of the recognition of a major turning point in the bonds.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 13:21 - ID#288331)
GFD - Thanks for the "guess." Sharp downturns in silver in very short time frames, which has been the case in this "correction and has been the case today, imply to me a conserted effort by a big player to drive the price down. To a lesser degree, this has been happening for well over a year now. Makes one think the best approach to the silver market is to play the short term swings. Hard for someone like me who prefers the long-term investment approach.

Regardless, today's action is discouraging. We have now run from the $7.30 area down to $6.10 very rapidly ( and contrary to one's expectations as a result of WB and the overall reduction in COMEX inventories ) . Makes me wonder if someone should file a lawsuit against the lawsuit alleging manipulation of the silver market!

My concern now is the $5.95 area. If we take that out, then I think the argument could be made that the rally is over for the time being. I would find that hard to believe unless the fundamentals are other than what I understand them to be.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 13:24 - ID#316193)
Some Good Advice For These Times..

(Wed Feb 25 1998 13:29 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Preacher -- Not totally ignored. There are just simply many here that don't know what to make of anything. Rose colored glasses you know, or, too busy yakkin to listen.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 13:29 - ID#288331)
Your post came in as I was typing mine. Missed your earlier post and appreciate the good information. Wonder if you have any comments about the very steep declines in silver prices in very short time periods. What could cause this other than a concerted effort by a large player?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 13:33 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Silverfox -- Stops gettin' hit! More short term selling volume than buying volume. All that kind of stuff. Notice that backwardization withing the silver futures contract months has disappeared also. Good reason for some concern for awhile. Fundamentals overall 'should' still be solid though with usage outpacing mining. Even without the 'Buffets', the play should still be long term good.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 13:34 - ID#23782)
I appreciated the analysis yesterday. I appreciate it today.
I always read your "stuff". My only thoughts are "buy um and
forget um". IMHO KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid

(Wed Feb 25 1998 13:47 - ID#26669)
preacher re DROOY
FWIW I never ignore your posts. but sometimes its hard to get in a suitable reply before the political crowd sweeps the topic away.

About DROOY, I've been hoping that it will present another buying opportunity later this spring around the 2 +/- 1/8 range.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 13:47 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Oh yeh. One more thing. If gold doesn't 'count its blessings' really soon, it too will follow silver down. But then, it should make it to/near 290 April basis anyway, IMO.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 13:48 - ID#429245)
Does anyone have a solid idea?
What causes silver to go down to $6.03 given the short supplies and the WB situation???

(Wed Feb 25 1998 13:50 - ID#340459)
On a Lighter note, Lewinsky is going to make Gold rise and not all the conspiracies by BIS/IMF etc..

A GoldTrader
(Wed Feb 25 1998 13:50 - ID#21455)
Aloha Preacher,
Thank you for sharing your vision with us. What colors do you use for %K, %D, and slow D on your indicator?

Lurker 777
(Wed Feb 25 1998 13:53 - ID#317247)
Leland thanks.
Date: Wed Feb 25 1998 13:24
Leland ( Some Good Advice For These Times.. ) ID#316193:
EXCELLENT site for IRS reporting information on buying bullion products.
Customers are always concerned and confused by reporting requirements According to I.C.T.A. ( Industrial Council for Tangible Assets ) the I.R.S. expect all dealers who buy any of the following items and quantities to file a 1099B form or withhold 20% of the proceeds and remit it to the I.R.S.:
1. 32 oz. of Gold bars, or Maple Leafs, or Krugerrands, or Mexican Onzas.
2. Any size of Silver bars totaling 1000 oz.
3. Any combination of $1000.00 face value of 90% Silver Dimes, Quarters or Halves.
4. Any lot of Platinum 25 oz. or more.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 13:54 - ID#255217)
What's a poor goldbug (or silverbug) to do?
The price action of silver today merely confirms my long-held view that silver is PERVERSE! I sincerely sympathize with those who have been hurt by its perversity in recent days. I know because I have had it done to me in the past. My consolation is that I am on the sidelines now, watching and watching and watching. And waiting... for that awful moment when with trembling hand I reach for the telephone and summon the courage to say... BUY! God help me. Go silver! Go gold!

The Hatt
(Wed Feb 25 1998 13:59 - ID#294232)
Gold and Silver moving in opposite directions!
It appears that a divergence is in the making! What should we make of this? ANYONE??????

(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:03 - ID#340459)
Sand in the Hour glass is running out for BC,
Maybe Gold never felt such adverse credibility problems in it's thousands of years of History as it does currently .

(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:07 - ID#429245)
Silver markets are closed
Something to do with the phone lines in NY

bernatz du ventadorm
(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:09 - ID#259191)
RJ - you are the bureaucrat, I am the visionary

Of late, I have actually been supporting your moneychanging.
No more, since you show me nothing in the way of respect.

Fact: I did not post "$325" more than 20 times on this forum.
You are confusing Kitco with the "At a bottom for gold?" thread
on SI, where indeed I did post this number repeatedly, since
they obviously needed constant reminders. As to whether I
was the first or not, who the hell cares? There are 6 billion
people on this planet, and if they all had a chance at the
"How many jellybeans in the jar" contest, no doubt every number
and every fraction of every number between 175 and 15,000
would be represented more than once. No one was the first
to call $325, because $325 has been called since time immemorial.
Do I deserve less credit because I didn't call it directly out of
my mother's womb?

Fact: As to what you gave for support for why gold was dead,
you said, "Because I kicked it and it didn't move". People
were supposed to invest millions shorting gold based
on this testimonial? Excuse me while I laugh.
Apparently, it isn't enough to call something correctly, it must
be dressed up with pink frosting. Another way of saying this
is: Well, you called it, but I don't like the fact that you called
it, so I'm ignoring that you called it.

Fact: It's always been sour grapes with you that you don't have
my contacts, my ability, and my insight, RJ. Perhaps because
I show you how easy your job is when you want reassurance
that you are the smartest guy in the world. Remember when
I called what gold would be in two weeks from 7/7/97?
I sure do, since I was a total of 80 cents off. The whole time
that exercise was going on, you said "Oh, no one can do that."
And you never entered a prediction, Mr. Pants Full of Facts.
Then when it happened exactly as I called it, you came on again
and said "Oh, I hope everyone realizes how stupid it is to predict
something two weeks in advice." Jealous, RJ? Jealous of a
talent you don't possess?

Fact: I was off one day, ONE DAY, on gold at $310 by 10/24/97.
Again, RJ, a call you didn't make. All you said was gold was going
down. Hell, RJ, I said gold was going down, 50 people on this
forum said gold was going down. Was your call somehow more
meritorious, somehow more worthy of genuflection, since you
backed it up with facts like "I kicked it and it didn't move"?

Fact: I called the bottom in gold, the true bottom in gold, five
weeks ago while you were still mealymouthing. I wasn't the
first one to call it, but you were about the 10th person to
jump on the bandwagon after it was clear I was again correct.

About one year ago, I posited the following: How many times
do I have to be right on this forum before people admit I am
right? If the answer is, "You could be right 70 x 7 times and
I still won't respect you, I still won't admit you were right", then
I gently remonstrated, "Then what are you doing on this forum?"
If you come to this site as an escape from reality, as a chance
to show off your kingly 4-inch erection and demand oohs and aahs
from the crowd, then I have nothing but pity for you. I am after
the truth, the truth as demonstrated by the actual price of gold,
not by how I can cover my ass with pretty words when I am
shown to be mistaken again and again.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:09 - ID#227290)
223& Drooy

I think that opportunity is here now. There's good support beginning at 2 1/8. Of course it could work lower, but I it has been giving ground very grudgingly and I think the next big move is up.

Just received my copy of David Marantette's Goldstock Letter. His In Sum section states: "We're getting toward the end of the pullback in time and price. Prices are coming down -- in some instances faster than we would like. Doubts are creeping in. Fear becomes the dominant emotion. Will the January bottom hold? If it's going lower, how will be know? Get ready to buy"

It would seem to me that either later this week or early next week, the dollar should crack and gold should begin its next leg up.


The Preacher

(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:10 - ID#365216)
to Argent
Boy can I sympathize with your trembling hand to buy silver.
May I suggest a little dollar cost averaging? You may pay a bit
more in commissions but it may be worth it.

Good luck my friend. Hi-Yo Silver, Away ( and Back ) , etc.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:13 - ID#197341)
O.P. up 5000 today 86500 from yesterdays 81500 ( aprox. )
and volume is about double?I don't pretend to know what
it means.Silver down 5% makes me think gold has bottomed
most of the price move up was done buy buying outside the U.S.
could get interesting tonight at these prices in Pm's I
expect there will be better movement one way or the other

(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:13 - ID#256254)
Ladies and Gentlemen:
Just remember that Warren was buying in July/August while silver was much lower and had much more gloom hanging over it. Now, either Warren has done a quick trade and move out his position or MUCH more likely, he is sitting there enjoying his view of the future of his silver investment. The good news is that if he flip his position ( a first for him ) you will hear about it soon, because someone will sue him for he JUST announced his STRONG silver position ( something about market manipulation ) . Warren is still with us.

Think longer term, for we have a GREAT, WELL KNOWN, WELL RESPECTED long term player amongst us. Thanks Warren, you do make it easier to sleep at night.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:13 - ID#213265)
@the scene
GW -- Phone lines, huh. Probably more longs getting called for margin due, as the decline continues.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:14 - ID#227290)
A Goldtrader & Stochastics
The %K line is red and the slow D line is blue.

The Preacher

(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:15 - ID#324209)
Another--Is owning shares of gold mining cos. that have NOT hedged, "paper gold"?
I am managing my mother's financial affairs, and have been for about 16 years now. Up until now, of course, she has profitted marvelously ( in currency terms ) by being the U.S. stock markets.

Recently, I have become both concerned about the level of the markets, vis-a-vis their relationship to the POG, and have moved some of her assets into gold mining companies, including Newmont Mining Co. ( NEM ) . As opposed to ABX, they have steadfastly refused to hedge forward their sales of future mined gold. They have paid dearly for this.

When the markets change, as you have described, will NEM stand to benefit, as opposed to ABX, because they have not sold their gold reserves forward?

Thank you in advance for your response; I appreciate your input. My mother is retired now, and I want to make the most prudent decisions I can for her. Capital appreciation and preservation, as well as income ( i.e., dividends from common stocks ) are important considerations for her.


(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:16 - ID#316193)
Trying To Predict The Price Of Gold Reminds Me..

I had a friend once who almost had a psychic girlfriend, but she
left him before they met.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:18 - ID#41170)
Preacher- I sure do like you sermon!
Give me a holler iffin you got the time

Hey Bernard- what is your prediction of the gold price now, thanks!

Tally Ho

(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:22 - ID#227290)
Silverfox & "a big trader"

I don't want to cop out on an answer, but technical analysis and fundamental analysis are two separate and distinct disciplines. TA doesn't concern itself with the "reasons" behind its actions and patterns.

Trades are based upon the momentary emotions of the traders. When the price of a stock or commodity rises greatly, there is a tendency for many to jump on board our ot greed ( fear of missing out on profits ) . And when a price starts down, many want to sell for fear of losing their capital. The WB announcement brought many unsophisticated traders into the silver market.
Ian McAvity of Toronto has a great line for situations like this: "If you ever get the urge to trade silver futures, lie down and wait till the urge passes. Then get back up."
I know of no better way for most people to lose money than to trade silver futures. It's hisorically volatile beyond all rhyme or reason.

I imagine that the action from the last two days demonstrates scared people wanting to get out before they lose more than they have.

The Preacher

bernatz du ventadorm
(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:23 - ID#259191)
Ray, for your own special prediction

Please send $400 to the address posted when I helped
out myself. Otherwise, since I am not your servant, why
don't you sit there and wait until I am good and ready
to make a prediction ( i.e. before the next move ) , or
better yet, why don't you lobby Bart to have me kicked off again?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:25 - ID#26669)
GW re solid idea why silver goes up and down.
Not meaning to sound flip, but I think that in any complex real life system the numbers are chaotic to one degree or another. ( IMHO thats a damned good reason to never buy on margin and to be careful with stops. )

Here are three references on chaos theory, all on an elementary level.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:31 - ID#287207)
You changed too soon
Ted: You are labouring under a misapprehension.

Idea that the "Can. Fed. DEBT is 92% of GDP" is wrong. The Cdebt is 70.1% now and going to 63% of GDP in about 24 months. As a rule of thumb ( HO HO ) 20 cents of the difference between the U$ and C$ is the result of the debt and 10 cents is B of Canada--Gov of Canada policy to keep the C$ about 70 cents US--helps exports and reduces imports etc.

So with all of the tax reductions mentioned earlier; with productive capacity estimated to hit 100% in the next 12 months, and a resulting need to increase rates, and notwithstanding a possible Quebec referendum this year---I do not expect the C$ to go down for any predictable reason--at this time.

PH in LA
(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:37 - ID#225408)
Conspiracy? Does it really matter?
Re: Date: Wed Feb 25 1998 12:28 "I have already posted that I do not see the BIS in the role of the gnomes of Zurich plotting against the debt currency system."

Mozel, JTF, GFD et al.

Frankly, I do not read the Sharefin 1:54 post as a conspiracy theory at all, rather as a plausible explanation and clarification of ANOTHER's cloudy prose. I saw nowhere the suggestion that the BIS is plotting against the debt currency system; rather that they would be want to supplant the debt system we have now with one based on the Euro with all that implies. Such an unwinding of the whole debt/futures/derivitives/dollar situation would look like immolation to the US, but like good times rollin' to the members of the European Union. Is it worth noting that the Brittish have declined to participate in the EU? and what a cooincidence, who was standing beside the USA in the latest confrontation in the ME?

It has been pointed out often on these pages that the Iraqi situation was really an economic play with the US military providing the air/ground cover for the underlying economic threads. If some want to emphasize the conspiracy angle, so be it. I prefer to ponder the situation as it actually exists. Motives and machinations make good novels and literature but tend to be hard to prove. Not so with reality. It always surfaces in the end.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:40 - ID#255217)
A sensible suggestion for sensible investors. Who ever said silverbugs were

(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:42 - ID#429245)
223--- Thanks for the suggestion. I'll check it out.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:44 - ID#238295)
Gold Forecasts
Bernatz: I will say it again -- you are the best gold prognosticator on this forum, although RJ also is pretty good. But you would gain more credibility if you would occasionlly provide the rationale for your forecasts. Few investors will follow anyone on blind faith no matter how good the record unless they have at least an inkling of the methods used.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 14:45 - ID#317193)
Bart Kitner
Thanks for the removal. Tom

(Wed Feb 25 1998 15:00 - ID#340459)
As I mentioned earlier that Bruce Lindsey knows too much and BC is trying for Exec Privilege in
Court proceedings. It is now a fight to finish between BC and Starr and irrespective of whoever wins this, Citizens and USA will surely be a loser in any future turn of events.

If Gold does not go to 300 in a week or so for what ever reason,then I guess this old lady is on life support at the end of her illustrious history....

(Wed Feb 25 1998 15:03 - ID#411233)
@ Bernatz du ventadorm--I value your opinion, never voted to have you
kicked off this site, and would seriously like to know where you think
gold is headed. Thanks.

Lurker 777
(Wed Feb 25 1998 15:12 - ID#317247)
Bart,RJ,Barb &all
I like I am interested dollar cost averaging Silver at 1,000 Silver Maple Leafs at a time. I like the fact they have a $5.00CN or $3.50US face value. Is there any advantage in the price of Maple Leafs by buying directly from the Canadian banks? Does anyone know how much over spot they sell for and who is a major seller?

Spud Master
(Wed Feb 25 1998 15:13 - ID#273112)
There is now way out for the Dow $ blackhole....
like 'The Hotel California' - you can only check in.

it will end badly. rig for impact...

(Wed Feb 25 1998 15:16 - ID#41170)
Bernatz- your 4oo is on the way. I just paid Rebeca 200 for a
Drooy chart. Don't mind payin for quality!

Tally Ho

(Wed Feb 25 1998 15:19 - ID#215253)
Like your tech analysis @13:20 and agree. I recently also subscribed to Marantette's letter. How do you like? Seems to have a good track record but missed a call on Au stx last Oct. Danl

(Wed Feb 25 1998 15:22 - ID#342376)
Where you talking about Rebecca Nolan? I'd be curious about the findings if you mean her. I have a stake in DROOY.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 15:22 - ID#333232)
fatwa for USA
Islamic Edicts Concern U.S. Officials

(Wed Feb 25 1998 15:26 - ID#288157)
Grievances against the US? Could that be?
One might argue, with some justification, that Sharefins 01:54 is NOT the exposition of a conspiracy, but rather a determined policy to redress 30 year old grievances. And there are others who have similar grievances...the difference being that the grievances from that quarter are against the system itself...

...there was U.S. moral pressure on foreign central banks not to convert their dollar assets into gold. The major U.S. dollar creditor during that period was the Deutsche Bundesbank, which expressly refrained from any conversion of U.S. dollar into gold on the part of United States monetary authorities. At the end of his period of office, Karl Blessing, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank from 1958 to 1969, said that this was his "biggest mistake." In saying that, he did not mean that the Bundesbank did not have enough gold ( its gold holdings originated in the period of the European Payments Union; in other words, they came from European countries ) ,but rather that

the United States had been relieved in this way from the compulsion to settle its balance of payments deficit.

Has the US balance of payments declined since Mr. Blessing expressed his regrets? Or have they grown? We have 'enoyed' an enormous priviledge for a very long time ( reserve currency ) ;that is about to end.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 15:27 - ID#25588)
I was stopped out of my May Silver at 6.28, had a chance to get out with a small profit this morning but didn't take it .... shame on me. The mid 5.00 correction objective is becoming reality sooner then I thought ( 1/28 21:29, 2/19 7:40, 2/23 20:54 ) . What's Next? March Silver should bottom this week at 5.70. A good rally, then back down making new lows at 5.50 or lower. Snowbird, I hope you're holding your OEX calls.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 15:35 - ID#288157)
cmh--Thanks for bringing the 'fatwa info' forward...
Frankly, I think the intelligence community is more concerned about the declared economic jihad...

(Wed Feb 25 1998 15:36 - ID#225273)
Danl & Marantette

A lot of people missed the call on gold stocks last Oct. I'll be the first to admit that TA has its limits. I know of no indicator that is right all of the time. It's a percentage game.
Last October, the head-and-shoulders bottom in the XAU was so obvious. Maybe it was too obvious, I don't know.

Most of the time, though, David's system is very accurate. And what's good about David is that he follows his system even when he doesn't "feel" like it.

"Even a bad system is better than no system at all. But no system is worth anything if you don't follow it all the time."

The Preacher

(Wed Feb 25 1998 15:37 - ID#288157)
A. Goose--run the figures, crunch, crunch
Rhodium as gold surrogate...

(Wed Feb 25 1998 15:41 - ID#351224)
Sharefin 1.54 post/BIS
Chapter II

Art. 4. ( 1 ) The authorised capital of the Bank shall be one thousand five hundred million gold francs, equivalent to 435,483,870.96 grammes fine gold.
( 2 ) It shall be divided into 600,000 shares of equal gold nominal value. A first tranche of 200,000 shares has already been issued; the other two tranches, of 200,000 shares each, shall be issued on the terms and conditions laid down in Articles 5 and 6.
( 3 ) The nominal value of each share and the amount remaining to be paid up shall be stated on the face of the share certificates.


Art. 7. ( 1 ) Twenty-five per cent. only of the value of each share shall be paid up at the time of subscription. The balance may be called up at a later date or dates at the discretion of the Board. Three month's notice shall be given of any such calls. [...]


(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:01 - ID#28585)
In the Sixties, when Beatle John Lennon declared "the Beatles are more popular than Jesus Christ," that statement was condemned and categorized as heresy.

Crowds of indignant, hostile, religious Americans flocked into the streets, Beatle records in hand. Spurred on by a variety of hostile clergymen, the people dumped their Beatle records into large piles, then set them afire. Only after John Lennon stepped forward and made a contrite public apology did the damage begin to subside. Various music critics have stated that Lennon's crime destroyed the innocence of the Beatles and compelled them to disappear from public view for some time ( hence the termination of public concerts ) . The Beatles only re-emerged into popularity after they metamorphosed into something entirely different than what they were before...the acid-soaked, mystical incarnation of the Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band.

What was John Lennon's crime? He spoke the truth. In fact, amongst the younger generation, Beatlemania had transformed itself into a de facto religion...young fans bursting into tears and pseudo-religious hysteria at the mere sound of Beatle music.

Various critics pointed out that Beatlemania served to fill a spiritual void left over from the Kennedy assassination...the first presidential assasination disseminated by the TV medium. The murder had far reaching effects, creating disillusionment and despair throughout the world.

Today, in America, we are facing the same spiritual void. Corporations no longer offer any fidelity to their workers...and workers reciprocate in kind. America is ruled by oligopolistic, multi-national corporations...not government of the people by the people but government of the profit by the profit. The McDonaldization of the entire world leaves the average person feeling no more significant than a mere digit.

The traditional American family no longer, most kids can expect to be raised by more than two parents in their lives. Americans have sought to reinvigorate their economy and their lives through the "miracles" of technology. Yet, the pandemic triumph of mass technology is alienating most Americans...there may be productivity enhancements and life sustaining improvements but as part of the reward, you get to spend most of your day holding hands with a machine...not something one would call warm, fuzzy interaction.

In effect, what we are witnessing today in America is a slow motion assassination no less devastating than the Kennedy is the assassination of the American morale and spirit.

So, into this void, the Almighty Dow has arrived.

When the average American is left feeling no more significant than a mere computer bit, then the promise of untold riches ( "the emulation of the Giants," as it has been described by notable contemporary psychologists )
seems a road to both salvation and power.

I will state categorically that American's increasingly maniacal fixation upon the Dow, the Nasdaq, and their mutual funds is no different than the Beatlemania of the Sixties.

It is nothing more than an ultimately futile attempt to fill the empty spiritual void America finds itself in today.


Now, the question is this: once this heresy is acknowledged by the people, once it is revealed that "the Emperor wears no clothes"...will the people arise in anger, repudiate their new idol, and topple it from its lofty perch??? Will this holy new icon be entirely destroyed until proper repentance is paid? And once the people destroy their false idol, what exactly will re-emerge from the ashes??

(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:03 - ID#356379)
D.A., where are you when we need you?

So, is the drawdown in COMEX silver stocks a scam? How can silver be so weak in the face of Friday's FND for March futures?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:10 - ID#170304)
sharefin and sdr

why would the japs or euros want to sell our treasuries? seriously.... also when gold
was exchangeable in the late 60's weren't europeans flying gold out of
the US by the planeload?...lets face it, we got the japs and the
"euros" by the cojones....and it ain't going to change for decades
at least.....imvvvvvvvvvvvho

Spud Master
(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:12 - ID#273112)
that brilliant red dot shining on your forehead should be sufficient warning. don't be another HH.


jim c
(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:16 - ID#69280)
When you first started posting, you were pro-gold ( remember your change the perception statement that we read about 100 times ) , what happened? Comparing the dow to what John Lennon said makes no sense ( like comparing oranges to apples ) . We know how you feel towards gold but do we have to hear this a 100 times before you change your mind again?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:25 - ID#340459)
(@farfel, Hey we all got your point, the Holy stuff is now getting to be tedious. Dont confuse
material wealth with religion ans spirituality. Neither Gold nor DOW can be considered holy by any serious religious inspection. A word of advice regarding your posts, preach elsewhere as it is getting tiresome to many here.

Good Luck in your Investment and fortune

(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:26 - ID#330175)
I just got that 92% figure out of a Canadian publication ( thought it was in the Globe+ Mail? ) but anyhoo,hope YOU are right about the debt % and the direction of the C$!!!!---Quebec and their evil messiah still scare the sh!t out of moi as unfortunately 'Lucifer' is the only national pol in Canada with any charisma ( imho,that is! )

Spud Master
(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:28 - ID#273112)
COMEX draw down, Buffet, and SSC curiousness....
None of these goings on square with each other.

Buffet's putative purchase is wildly positive for silver.

COMEX draw-down should have shorts scared witless.

Spot silver slumps lower & lower - not sensible.

SSC, a pure-play, sags badly all day long, then miraculously
recovers in the final five minutes.

If all this doesn't spell desperate tree-shaking & gross manipulation
then I can not imagine what does.

Can the CBs & TheFedGov be so desperate that ANY precious metal must not
be allowed to break free? Would it only take the faintest metals nudge to tip over the Dow now?

Tyler Rose & Questor - how goes the attempt to get delivery of your 100oz bars of COMEX gold?


(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:29 - ID#330175)
Selby---------The Globe + Mail says 93% of GDP not 92%

(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:29 - ID#252150)
Preacher@Your 14:02--Excellent advice re: silver futures
I would also extend the same advice to the Vancouver jr miners.
I was very lucky to make some big gains on BGO/AZS without really knowing how manipulated that mkt is. I have since given back a lot of those gains
& now take Mctavity's advice. When the big houses such as Cannacord & Nesbitt get together & decide to move a stock either up or down, the small investor is just a helpless bystander.

I find your posts very informative.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:30 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.92 This is a new high. I saw an intraday high at 29.00 but was not checking it all the time.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:31 - ID#330175)
JAMES----There YOU are!
James: That was a great story the other day but it sure sounded like it happened in Cape Breton!!!!!!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:32 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .236

(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:34 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 48.49

(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:35 - ID#340459)




S&P 500

Russell 2000



& Futures






& Forex

30-Yr T-Bond
0.5918 %

10-Yr T-Note
0.5616 %




(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:35 - ID#269245)
bernatz du ventadorm, may I kiss your feet?
Wow, what an impressive defense you have presented of your own self worship! How completely appropriate for this forum. You are sooo right! Hell, I don't need to think for myself anymore; all I need to do is listen to you! Thank god - thinking hurts my brain!

And to think that I entered this forum in anticipation of learning something. I thought I could be free of ultra ego-maniacs! BTW, could I just give you every penny I own right now? Now I know, by your own testimony, that you can manage my money much better than I can!

I am sorry if I am misjudging you ( and others who proclaim they know everything ) , I actually couldn't stomach reading your post past the second paragraph. Please don't post again unless you have something worthwhile to say - your wasting every honest persons' time. Look the word "humility" up in the OED - or just ask Preacher or JTF or others who actually want to contribute to this forum!

PS I'll never trust you, even if you are "always right!" - sheesh!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:36 - ID#329157)
NYSE Corruption! (Allegedly)

(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:36 - ID#233199)

No. the idol falls first.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:36 - ID#252150)
Interesting take on debt to GDP levels
The U.S. is the worst in the world--except for all the rest.
Also points out how some Countries like Belgium & Italy stand to gain with monetary union.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:38 - ID#286249)
pmdhrh--Those were Air France planes...
Charles de Gaulle didn't play ball and took his gold home...
What lesson did the Germans learn from that?

As for your bet on the dollar...well, that is what markets are all about!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:40 - ID#224329)
Sharefin commemt - 2/25/98 - 01:54

Why couldn't the CBs just sell more gold to prevent the squeeze and keep the Dollar price of Gold from rising.? Also, couldn't the Federal Reserve just print more money if the Japanese sell their US Treasury paper? Of course, we would have rampant inflation later, but as Keynes said "later we will eventually be all dead".

(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:42 - ID#252150)
Selby beat me by 7 mins on Globe & mail post
Hi Ted--That story must be true--too strange for fiction. I've always had some real reservations about hunters.

Great spring like weather here. Just waiting for the golf course to dry out more.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:49 - ID#411259)
..... Float like a butterfly .....

Hep -

Told you I didn't want a fight and will not further one here. I told you that, for a time, I did wonder about the basis of your calls, but none was ever offered. As for the "I kicked it and it didn't move", interesting you picked one snide remark meant as a point of humor towards Eldo, and then chose to ignore the tens of thousands of words of analysis describing exactly my reasons for expecting further drops in gold. When you were posting 3-2-5, I was telling everybody here than Germany was going to be a seller of 200 + tons in 1997. We discover months later that Germany has leased for forward sales 10% of there gold reserves ( better than 300 + tons ) Even my boss didn't believe me on that one.

I stand corrected on the seven hundred times you posted 3-2-5, lets settle on somewhere between your claim of 20 and my charge of 700, the truth will be found there.

As for sources, I name mine. Information is absolutely useless unless you know the source. I do have the advantage of working at the largest bullion dealer in the world. My own sources are minute compared to the cumulative total of experience and contacts held by the entire staff of brokers. We all share info to the extent that no one individual could possibly match; there are simply not enough hours in the day.

I stand by my insistence that nobody on earth can predict the price of a commodity even 10 days in advance and any call of such is fated more by the gods than any mortal stumblings. The truly successful traders understand this and do not go fishing for bottoms or tops, but swim for profits in the glorious middle.. I was a couple weeks late in acknowledging the bottom is in for gold. I was wrong on some silver shorts in December. The key is: Nobody wins all the time in these markets, except you. You never offer any rational for your pronouncements, you just claim to be always right.

Again, I don't want a fight, you have demonstrated time and again your prowess with the written word and your talents in acerbic wit are feared by lesser souls. We know I can hold my own in this exchange. Lets not put the rest here through that. Instead I will accept your congratulations on my scathingly bitter and completely devastatingly personal attack on you that I would be making had this sight not seen enough of that and is growing tired of the acrimony. I will offer in return, the same admiration for your brilliant shredding of my person and character. Kind of like when a couple of matched fighters get together - both understanding that he could win, but not without taking some serious blows. So instead, having nothing further to prove, say "screw it" and go have a beer. Believe it or not, there may be half a dozen people on this site I would find interesting company for that beer, you are one of 'em.


(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:50 - ID#284246)
silver wharehouse stocks URL
All, as promised:

click "free news"

click "metal"

select silver wharehouse stocks part 2

a bit out-of-date but useful I think

(Wed Feb 25 1998 16:58 - ID#41170)
crazytimes-that is the Rebecca I was refering to. She just confirms
the potential laid out in Gold Newsletter, she is real positive about
the whole situation in SA, including the forthcoming new leadership.
Also she says Japan is good as GONE. The BOW WOW DOW will top this
year probably before the fall and gold will soar.

Taly Ho

(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:00 - ID#304282)
here are some interesting quotes
From NEWS and VIEWS ( USA Gold ) Newsletter, feb 98:

The following are quotes published recently by James Blanchard in his GOLD
NEWSLETTER. Please note the similarities between what you see and hear now in
the financial press and what was being said in 1976, just before gold made its historic
run to nearly the $900 level. At the time these comments were made, gold was in its
darkest hour having collapsed to the $100 level under the pressure of US Treasury and
IMF gold sales.


"I don't know where we go from here. I'd hate to say $90 an ounce, but I suppose
even that is possible."......Wall Street Journal 7/20/76


"Thanks to the latest IMF dumping of the stuff ( gold ) , the great rush of '76 --to
unload-- took on the makings of an old fashioned panic. But take heart, gold bugs!
Dick Donelly, from his privileged perch in Commodities Corner, assures us that the
intrinsic value is at least $5 an ounce."...........Barron's 7/22/76


"...Gold, that fair weathered friend, is distinctly out of fashion. Even to bring out the
subject is to lay oneself open to sneers."...................
.......Financial World, Fall 1976


"There seems to be little to stop the price of gold going below $100 an
...........The Economist, 9/11/76


"The new low for gold is an indication that the central banks of the world, particlarly
the US Federal Reserve, and the West German Bundesbank, are determined to press
on their plans to demonetize gold regardless what that does to the price."....
.................Business Week,9/13/76


"The rebound in the gold price from the low of $103 in August to around $140 by
mid-November probably isn't the beginning of another sustained boost because neither
runaway inflation nor recession are immediate global threats. That's the view of gold
watchers who aren't 'die-hard' gold bugs."......
............Money Magazine 12/76

Steve in TO__A
(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:00 - ID#209265)
Drop in silver prices
Folks- silver is going down because the bears are at it again, selling the stuff short. The supply situation has been easing as of late, and this has probably emboldened them to to try to take out the stops ( or "run the stops" as some floor traders put it. )

Whenever a large number of unsophisticated investors pile into an investment on news, the wolves step in to fleece the sheep. There are still a lot of traders out there who are bearish on silver, based on all the fundamentalist stuff like the supposed tendency of India to reverse from a sink to a source of silver when the price goes up. Indians have done that in the past, but I think silver would have to go a lot higher than $8/oz or even $12/oz to get it to happen.

Once the next supply squeeze develops, as it must, the shorts will start to run for the exits, and we'll see the same kind of runup we saw before. Keep yer eyeballs on the supply figures.


(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:00 - ID#252150)
I have Solved The Another Conundrum
"In each of us there is another whom we do not know. He speaks to us in dreams & tells us how differently he sees us from the way we see ourselves"-Carl Jung.

There must be one or more GBs who are posting their dreams on this

Carpe Aurem
(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:01 - ID#339292)
Interesting analogy on "The Almighty Dow". The question is, what aspect of the Dow has become the selling point for these spiritless, Mephistopheleans that roam the heartlands of America? Is it the idea that individual companies with real management and real profit and growth exist and are grossly undervalued in the marketplace, or is it all about some vague abstraction that has no other appealing fundamental value besides that of historical success with a silly, meaningless name tagged on it like "Dow" or "S&P" feigning significance? Are the masses simply manifesting some a-b-c, lowest-common-denominator, fast-food extrapolation based on past performance or even as grass-roots as, "Well, my neighbour said he made a fortune in the market..." and then diving head-first into something they can't even begin to comprehend; something most seasoned veterans can't even comprehend?

Well, I admit that is frightening. I guess that's what makes it a market, though. But, I agree with your comment about the emotional void being filled by the need ( or greed ) for profit. Because fear and greed are exceptionally powerful emotions - and when running rampant over market action - could certainly fill out anybody's emotional profile.

The other thing is, under your "statistic" scenario where zombie's are reduced to ones and zeros, making money off the buying and selling of more ones and zeros is seemingly a great way to spite the system that had reduced them to digits in the first place. Let's face it, most traders trade on a feeling. They don't care what company they're buying. The stock certificate that their purchase rationalizes never even gets printed, unless they make a special f***ing request. It's just ones and zeros in a computer somewhere. So what does it all mean, anyway?

Anyway, buy gold stocks. Please. Pretty please. With sugar on top. Aw come on, just one lousy gold stock. Pleeeeeaaaaase.

Spud Master
(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:03 - ID#273112)
US "Debt to the Penny" - FedGov is borrowing like mad ... now $39 BILLION for Feb.
02/24/1998 $5,522,503,241,725.24

02/02/1998 $5,483,592,532,096.82

A cool $39 BILLION dollars in debt so far for February.

12 x $39 billion = $468 billion DEFICIT for 1998 if they keep borrowing at this rate.

Does anyone believe we have a balanced budget?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:05 - ID#20748)
German Sales
This has been known to readers of the Armstrong Report for quite some time, but I missed the actual announcement. If readily avaiable to you, would you please post the source, or a copy of the news.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:06 - ID#342376)
farfel 16:01, now that was a good post.
You've overdone it recently but then again so has the Dow of which you speak. Yes, there are some storm clouds on the Horizen as AG tells. Unfortunaltely, man has losted his much of his connection with the Divine, however you may perceive that to be, but it has been happening for a while. IMHO, when Descartes arrived and caused a shift in a perception of the workings of the universe like a machine. This has cause a fragmented society and it also has made us worship technology. The change is in the air though, if nothing more than a small computer code problem that could bring the world down as we know it. But there is hope, when the s#*t hits the fan, we will be forced to recognize that we need to connect with each other and the Divine once more. It's all part of a bigger plan, of which no one knows but of which I do trust. As the Chinese Proverb goes, "may you live in interesting times"

(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:07 - ID#20748)
My last post was indeed directed to you.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:17 - ID#238295)
silver and gold
The surge in silver had virtually no impact on gold. So it is not surprising that the recent collapse is having virtually no impact either.

BTW, does anyone have data for average silver mining costs? As with gold that should be an unbreakable floor.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:19 - ID#285392)
Yes, I still have my March OEX calls paid 7.75 and one May 6.75 silver, paid .32. Thanks for your interest.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:22 - ID#153102)
7000 Tons of HOAX
"PRICE: LME with discount of 4% Gross and 3% Net."
There is no AU traded on LME.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:23 - ID#411259)
..... NJ .....

The announcement of Germany's change in policy to begin leasing gold for forward sales was made last October or November. Last June, I was telling folks hereabouts that Germany would sell gold and help precipitate a further fall in the POG. I named my sources last August which had nothing at all to do with broker contacts or market connections. It was deductive reasoning using information available at this site and to every reader of these words. I don't have time to repeat my rationales, but long time readers of this forum saw them in all their speculative glory. You may have noticed, I can get a bit wordy. I don't think there is a single position I have ever taken on this forum that I did not explain in excruciating detail. When I know the source I, I quote it, if not, I label it a rumor.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:26 - ID#342376)
thanks, Ray.
What do you think of her forcasts? Her predictions for February's strong rise in Gold and deep falls in DOW didn't come true. Although Mike is not as specific, I prefer his takes. He's much more enjoyable to read and IMHO much humbler as well.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:29 - ID#28585)
...those of you who hold strong religious beliefs.

It is simply a case of making a point through a metaphorical, satirical device...very strongly and very emphatically.

The Dow-mania is truly becoming religious in such, it is beyond exuberant...beyond rational...certainly, it is extremely abnormal.

But I will not apologize for my obstinacy in the face of criticism from various parties on this forum and their demands of "cease and desist!"

Like many of you, I have been subjected to haughty derision, constant lampooning, and severe criticism over the past several years for my refusal to accept the "normalcy" of Dow-mania and my decision to seek refuge from the impending storm in assets I believe to be repositories of time-tested value.

It is my obstinacy in the face of such criticism that keeps me holding PM's when practically everybody around me declares the patent idiocy of such a stubborn position. I have used the metaphor, "like Noah building his Ark," in describing my actions and naturally, the anti-PM crowd has gladly mocked such a comparison.

Hence, you will understand why I do not respond immediately to the demands of certain parties on this forum. When I take a stand, I will only relinquish it on my schedule and at my own choosing...not simply because I am mocked, reprimanded, or commanded by purported experts and arbiters of political or religious correctness.

So, I have determined the time is right now to dispense with the satire and reveal the following:

I continue to maintain the obstinacy of a gold/silver-bug standing steady in the midst of a swirling storm of Dow-mania.

I know I am right...and, ultimately, that's all that really matters.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:31 - ID#20748)
I have been a regular on this site for sometime and always read your posts with great interest. I asked, because sale of as much as 300 Tonnes is big news and should have hit the headlines.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:34 - ID#228128)
D.A. and R.J.: Do you still think silver has a chance of making a run over the next couple of weeks or have the shorts won?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:34 - ID#246224)
Comments on ANOTHER(THOUGHTS!) recent posts
His most recent posts illuminate a perspective that sees tangibles as the only true things of wealth or value. It sees currencies as useful in short term transactions but not as wealth since they are not tangible goods or services. The comments regarding "gold, whether at US$50 or US$50,000 does not matter" is entirely accurate since it clearly highlights this perspective. ( Which would you rather have and hold 1 Million barrels of oil, or 16 Million dollars? Not talking trade here. The 16 Mln US$ is held not traded. Think about gold in this way. )

If $50 could buy a new Porche and gold was valued at $50 per ounce, then you would think that gold was 'valuable', not because of its numerical valuation in terms of a currency, but in terms of tangibles or services it could buy. If $50,000 buys the Porche and gold was $50,000 per ounce the value of the gold would be no different would it?

We are mixing things together when we ask "What is gold worth in US Dollars?" and "Will gold go up or down in 'price'?". These questions define gold's value in terms of relative and irrelavent numbers associated with currencies. The DOW/Gold ratio is the closest thing we have dealt with on this forum which speaks to this. Donald has been faithfully posting the Dow/Gold almost every day and we just think of it as an interesting ratio.

When we learn to use gold as THE denominator rather than a currency such as the US Dollar then we will be getting closer to what ANOTHER has been talking about.

Here is the problem: If you are an extremely large, very long term player what do you put your wealth into??? Do you risk putting it into currencies or economies that may degenerate drasticly? Do you even care about currencies when you have wealth that exceeds the productive output of all but the largest economies on the planet? If the whole world goes to hell in a hand basket are you so invested in its systems that you have no way of preserving your wealth or influence? You and I do not have problems of this scale. But there are a few people in this world that do have this problem. ANOTHER identified them as "the ultra rich".

Regardless of your opinion of ANOTHER's style or his ways try to shake loose from that for a minute and think about the issues he is bring to the front. His perspective addresses many of the concerns of those here who question the stability of fiat currencies and wonder what to do about it. One thing we can glean here is that we must rearrange our way of thinking. We must begin to think in terms of tangible/tangible ratios rather than tangible/currency ratios. We must begin to see currrencies as a short term means to the end of exchanging goods or services. If we do this before the rest of the world wakes up to this then we have a head start on positioning ourselves. Once the world begins to see that paper money is not the end all and be all of wealth there WILL be a re-valuation of those things which express that point of view.

It does not matter whether this change comes about through the agency of an oil power or through a rearrangement of the mentality of the entire world-wide market itself. I think the points that M. Armstrong makes about instability in world trading in the next few years because of chaos in currency markets fits this fairly closely here. If paper money becomes sinking sand then someone will start looking at an alternative point of view. They will start to think in terms of tangible/tangible trade rather than tangible/currency trade.

What tangible do think they will look at to provide the ultimate anchor? Its yellow. Its metal. And its not something a government can 'counterfit' ( print ad infinitum ) . GOLD. And when people start to think that gold offers a better alternative to trading than paper, then they will trade paper for gold until there is no more gold left. The 'paper value of gold' will not matter since paper will be seen as soft money and gold are real money. It doesn't matter what numbers you apply to its 'price'; low or high it will be the prefered tangible; the prefered denominator for all tangible transactions.

Go gold!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:34 - ID#210114)
Silver fall
Does aanyone have information of soilvers fall overnight?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:40 - ID#342376)
Allen (USA), I appreciate your commentary on Another.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:43 - ID#286249)
Allen (USA), Comments
applause, Applause, APPLAUSE!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:48 - ID#390249)
Sharefin 1:54 - yen carry trade and big bang
I can't help but think the 'big bang' will just add fuel to the yen carry trade fire. As I understand it, Japanese individuals will be able to invest in foreign currencies and stocks. I would guess that a huge sum of the Japanese individuals savings - currently in the postoffice - will flow into US$ with it's higher interest as well as US stocks. This should strengthen the dollar as well as the US stock market even more - at least for a while. I have heard that Japanese banks are gearing up for this by establishing mutual funds desks at their branches.

As long as CB gold leasing continues, the gold carry trade will continue as well. NJ - the 300 tons out of the German CB last year was not a sale, but a lease. As far as I know, they don't announce leases cause the gold stays on their balance sheets. These leases concern me. No one knows how much they lease and when they stop, won't the gold carry trade collapse and panic set in? I think the CB's will do whatever to prevent this from happening and will continue leasing - at least for a while.

I'm just rambling here.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:51 - ID#57232)
I like your comments about ANOTHER too!
Allen: It always makes sense to try to step in the other fellows shoes to see the truth. Everyone of us sees the truth in different ways -- it is just the way we are made up. But -- I do wish we could get ANOTHER or his spokesperson to think a bit more about the truth from our perspective. I am not ready to put all of my assets into gold bullion.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:51 - ID#393224)
Silver City
It's shakeout time in Silver City!! Downside risk vs upside potential now EXTREMELY attractive. My trading hackles are up and I just spotted a good lookin' hen. Aussie silver shares have retreated only a fraction this week, with very low volumes. No one wants to sell--a good sign. Today will shake a few more chickenshirts out of the hen house. If you want to be a contrarian, you have to act contrarily!! ( Dang--this sounds dumb--should I delete it or submit it?? ) . What the hell!!

Psilver Psyched
(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:57 - ID#216217)
silver behavior
Is not the trading pattern of the last few days just like it was at the end of Dec? I understood that a big house sold lots of calls at $6.00. They wanted to drive the market to near six dollars so that the options would expire worthless. I heard this scheme worked because due to the holidays trading was light and the house could actually move the metal for a favorable investment to the payment of options to close.
It appears to me that this was so profitable that the holidays aren't needed. Here is my guess. Yes, we hit $6.00 again so the options value is gone. Having cleared the month with the trader's house making its profit, slow unwinding will begin next week. Silver will be bouncing back. ( Kinda suggests how to play the end of the months doesn't it? )
Other opinions would be appreciated. Go silver...

(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:57 - ID#246224)
Farfel 17:29
The netiquitte guidelines clearly impress on all of us the necessity of being civil and considerate of each other. This is not a suggestion it is a requirement. Your posts were tedious and offensive to those whose religious commitment you used as a platform for your 'point'. I suppose it is a matter of opinion whether you went overboard. Your continual harrange was to long and to poisoned for me. I was expressing that to you and asked you to desist. If I did not tell you then you could claim ignorance. Kind of like telling nasty jokes: If your audience chuckles along with you then you figure they might like another dose. But if someone says, 'enough' or 'please stop' then as a reasonable person you stop.

This has nothing to do with being politically correct. It has to do with being considerate. I do appreciate the difficulties you have endured in your position. Most here stand with you at least in silent dissent to the mania of these times. And if you feel the need to blow off some steam, then let 'er rip. We will listean. You will speak for many of us. Many have latent anger and resentment inside because of being marginalized by others for ACTUALLY THINKING THINGS THROUGH. I, personally, would rather hear a really decent banshee scream of disgust than the satire as it was executed.

Thanks for listeaning to my side of this.

jim c
(Wed Feb 25 1998 17:58 - ID#69280)
In one of your earlier posts, you stated that you sold all your pm holdings and invested in stocks. Now you say you have held onto your pm holdings. I'm sure most people don't mind you being here at all, the problem is you keep saying the same thing over and over and over...again and again. We all know that it is all right to be against the tide because everyone is entitled to their opinion, but try to add substance to what you are discussing.

Psilver Psyched
(Wed Feb 25 1998 18:01 - ID#216217)
silver behavior
Re: prior post- Unless COMEX inventory starts to rise. Then he!! I don't know, I'll have to look for the exit ramp with confidence lost.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 18:10 - ID#246224)
crazytimes, SDRer and JTF - thanks for your replies!
I don't think ANOTHER is advocating a 100% gold bullion position. He has said a few times 'whatever your thinking will allow'. He has said that paper in terms of gold options/futures and stox are no better than the paper they are written on in the coming changes. I have no complaints about that POV.

Personally I take some comfort from his posts but haven't bought because of them. My position is physical. I'm where I think I should be. I'm straddling the fence between cash and physical PM's. If PMs take off at least *one side of me* is going for the ride! If we see a liquidity problem I'll have the paper to take advantage of it. If inflation starts up, and it usually is pretty slow in coming, then I'll know what to do with the cash ( not buy stox, real estate or bonds fer sure ) . My mortgage is low enough and no other debts outstanding. We are not dependent on two incomes in the least. Presently I'm not getting rich but I am on very high and dry ground. And I sleep real good at night.

JTF - If what ANOTHER says is the future, more or less, then any physical you have will be enough, eh? I simply would not mind in the least!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 18:15 - ID#300202)
@Allen.head screwed on right-focused
You Sir have your act together!!!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 18:17 - ID#254110)
Silver close at 6.03! It just gets worser and worser!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 18:19 - ID#393224)
Carpe Argentum Diem


(Wed Feb 25 1998 18:22 - ID#252127)
This should make the "REAL farfel" one happy dude..... A bit of air time

Invest America hosted by Morton Downey Jr. will air two 30 minute shows featuring 2 separate 30 minute spots. In one Ken Colemann will discuss the gold mining industry and the second will have Howard Ruff. Discussion will also concern a small gold miner named Golden Eagle.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 18:22 - ID#335379)
farfel no offense taken
Hello Farfel:
While the absolute truth of what the future holds is still to be determined,
actions based on partial information and belief are quite rational.
Belief about what is unseen is often an extrapolation of what is known and understood. We ought to keep our options open when we do not fully know
what the future will be. Take a general course of action, watch it, steer as needed.
I also believe that tangables are of more value than paper. My positions are almost all contrarian and insurence related.
I cannot insure against all things. For those things that I cannot insure against I can only hope and trust God.
Your position seems rational to me. What goes wuup..must come DOWn.
Noah is a perfect word picture here as he also must have been derided for building a ship on land, and taking almost 100 years to complete. The ship must
have stuck out like a soar thumb to the locals.
Take care, just don't let the gold weigh your ark down, it is just a tool for this life, we can't take it with us.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 18:25 - ID#393224)
What dip??

PH in LA
(Wed Feb 25 1998 18:25 - ID#225408)
Allen's comments about ANOTHER

thanks for your analysis of Another's Thoughts of yeaterday. As another scholar have you seen the Sharefin 1:54 from this morning and compared it with the earlier ANOTHER? I find the two scary in how well they both fit together.

You can find transcripts of ANOTHER at:

(Wed Feb 25 1998 18:26 - ID#28585)
@JIM C...ONE OF THE MOST INTERESTING THINGS ABOUT THIS FORUM... the potpourri of essays, jokes, economic tracts, political science discourses, ad hominem assaults, demagogic appeals, investment info, etc...the entire melange of human interest that appears on this forum.

I am against censorship of this forum...I am against narrowing its focus or behavior patterns...I love its anarchic style. I am against revealing the actual names or identities of the participants. I truly believe that this site belongs to the people now...not Bart Kitner. Yes, it's true he owns and administers the site. But, if he were to deny the people access via internet charges, then he would destroy it. The average Joe would cease to visit it anymore. Everybody fundamentally desires a free lunch.

Bart, I'm sorry...if you wish to make money from this site, I respect that desire. Hopefully, you will do so through advertising sponsors...not access charges. You see, you have created a monster...kind of like creating a football team for an entire city. At a certain point, whether or not you are in the picture, the city ( or someone else ) eventually will take over your football team and run it themselves. Analogously, I believe that, at this point, if Bart were to alter radically the nature of this site, someone else would step forward and reincarnate it in its original form...and I am certain it would be equally successful.

I am very conversant with the internet and log into seven to ten primary, interactive internet sites a day. My wife would like to divorce me for as much time as I spend in front of a computer.

This site is the best! Whether or not you are pro-PM or anti-PM biases, somehow some of the most scintillating intellects have logged onto this site. I am an Ivy League graduate and speechified at length in front of thousands of people. This site provides me much of the inspiration for topics I write or talk about. Yet, censorship, rigid enforcement of netiquette guidelines, removal of the anonymity of posters, etc. would probably destroy this site. It would become as mediocre as various other "popular" sites I shall not name.

Jim C...when I spoke of buying Dow and selling my PM's, I did so in preparation for mounting the satire I perpetrated upon Kitcoites these past few days. Forgive me for I spoke untruths.

As far as the redundancy of some of my positions or statements, well, all I can say is I am surely no more redundant than the repetitious sermons and diatribes emanating from Wall Street on a daily basis.

Yet, hopefully, you will find my redundancy a great deal more creative.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 18:28 - ID#153102)
One man's wage is due gold for service as justly as another man's price is due it for product.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 18:28 - ID#286249)
W H A T ! ! ! !
HK Standard Business Post--Thursday, Feb 26, 1998

US state governors join drive to top up IMF funds
Governors of US states joined President Bill Clinton's drive on Tuesday to boost the resources of the International Monetary Fund amid warnings that Asia's financial crisis would hit the strong US economy.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 18:32 - ID#393224)
What dip??...continued
OK wise guys, what's going on?? Reading all of your 'end of the world' posts, I was expecting a good buying opportunity today!! So I log on to my live trading program...whip out my portfolio faster than bc can...err...never mind...and what do I see but green ink everywhere!! All up. No dip to get good bargains!! And here I was gonna make a fortune today!! Maybe the world will end tomorrow??? BBL.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 18:33 - ID#30116)
For the currency challenged....
Here is an intersting site that provides currency conversions. What's so unusual? Scroll to the bottom of the currency selector. Then choose silver, gold or platinum currency conversion....

(Wed Feb 25 1998 18:40 - ID#242249)
Bart you are already aware aren`t you,Ted ...Poof
Ted why in the first place you ever moved in Canada?

Is the answer that time you wanted to be an other sucker on or free Canadian healh system? To have a good return on your USD over CD$ and have a good life? To get a piece of a country a little more as a last sanctuary or a sanatorium for your completlly unproductive bones and a..hole.
What did you ever bring to this country? Exactly WHAT? Tell me WHAT you bring else than your a..hole.
And you dummy sitting on your hay dare to sh!t on the face of the peoples of the best country on the face of the planet,the number ONE rated living conditions on the world....!See UNO...

What`s wrong with Canada?

WHAT in the world make you an accurate withness of what is wrong in Canada?

You did sent your check to help those peoples without electricity in Ontario and in Quebec? Did you used your chain saw and your pickup full of wood in Montreal as many...?Did you send a check to Californians in distress or Floridians tornadoesnnt?
I did ! Both .
And I am still a producer of goods and wealth and worried
with Canada and DEMOCRATIC Quebec.And you hurt me MAD!
Your posts do not bring NOTHING to the Gold matters here. I do not want to read this forum to know if if you are drunk or drown in the sea or if you house is burnt to the ground neither the weather in your area. There are plenty of weather sites...I do not want to know if your dog eat your plate neither I want to know your receipes.. or if your ISP is down.....

In the begining when you came in at This great QUEBEC Kitco Site you look sympatical, but now your true bigot nature appeared and I have anough.

I told Bart that if he do not send you with Heavey Hitter in the ether, I will challenge your creazyness every time and this site will suffer unfortunately very baddly.

So SHUTTUP... or talk as a gentleman.

And I will forgive and forget.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 18:43 - ID#254110)
This Forum
I also like this forum as is. Most of the time I just lurk in the backgroung but I'm becoming quite addicted to it! I hope it doesn't change too much.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 18:53 - ID#197313)
Nick? what dip?
Can't tell if your serious or you really haven't noticed
silver droped 30 cents .That is a dip and good luck and good day

(Wed Feb 25 1998 18:57 - ID#393224)
Oliver--if YOU don't like what Ted is posting--then use your scroll button and pass his posts. It just so happens that I, and most of the others here ENJOY Ted's posts!!! No one is forcing you to read them. If it bothers you that much, then go elsewhere--you will not be missed!!!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 18:59 - ID#393224)

I know silver has dipped. What I can't figure out is why my silver SHARES are going up. I wanted to buy more. Cheers.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:00 - ID#57232)
Free Kitco?
farfel: There will be a gold rally faily soon - even if it is only to $350-400. Do you think that Kitco in the current state will still be functioning? Not a chance -- it will be overloaded. So - this site must be upgraded.

So if you want Kitco to be free, and functional -- you better contact Bart Kitner with your ideas. If you do not come up with a good compromise -- we will have to pay. I just thought of one -- why not limit the 'free' access to three lines of text -- and we all try to put the bottom line there whenever possible -- will be hard but not impossible.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:02 - ID#224363)
Bart...I second farfel @18:56

Although most of the time Fafel rants like a madman...I too second his statement about this site. Don't change it too much. Maybe ads from the bullion houses ( and maybe the BIS, IMF, and central banks ) are the way to go.

This is what Kitco has provided me with:

In the past, the gold and silver markets never really interested me. Late in the spring of 97 I started to wonder about the equity markets and started looking into gold/silver. This site was one of the first sources of information I discovered. It provides good intellectual value.

The racists, etc. can be easily ignored ( and censored by Bart ) . The rest of the contributions on this site are usually interesting to read. Where all of this will end up, I truly don't know.

Although I think George Soros is just a 'smart' rich guy...His points about being able to 'affect' marekts seems to be playing itself out on the precious metals stage.

I will for one, enjoy the ride ( up or down ) .

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:02 - ID#225273)
Psilver Psyched & silver price

I wouldn't be getting out now. The rising 200-day MA sits in the low $5.80s. I would imaging silver will not be able to get through it, or at least not very far through it.
Silver is a very volatile ( emotional? ) metal and difficult to trade. I think we're getting near the time to be brave.
Coeur d'Alene is holding up unbelieveably well. I think it is more indicative of the state of silver than the futures price, which regularly gets way out of whack both to the upside and the downside.

The Preacher

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:07 - ID#286230)
Ted: I got my figures for the Sun so we have conflicting information. I Doubt mine is on the net to post but I'll look.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:08 - ID#286249)
Is this the rasping sound of someone lighting a (gasp) match?
That sound you hear is the hammering of nails into the coffin of ...
Japan Echo, TWU Jaw-Yann

"The most basic priority for the crisis-struck economies of Asia is to escape from their dependence on the U.S. dollar.

The Japanese cannot be complacent about the yen either; its position seems to be weakening relative to the Chinese yuan."

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:10 - ID#286249)
Is this the rasping sound of someone lighting a (gasp) match?
Japan Echo, TWU Jaw-Yann

"The most basic priority for the crisis-struck economies of Asia is to escape from their dependence on the U.S. dollar.

The Japanese cannot be complacent about the yen either; its position seems to be weakening relative to the Chinese yuan."

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:12 - ID#225273)
farfel & John Lennon

I knew John Lennon. John Lennon was a friend of mine. And beliieve me, you are no John Lennon.

The Preacher

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:12 - ID#286249)
NO--this is the sound of some idiot (SDRer) saying

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:14 - ID#288295)

Welcome back to earth, old bean!
I really do appreciate and enjoy your rational commentary, and even your irreverence - but please, not the DOW stuff. It's nice to know you weren't wacked out after all.

Go gold!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:15 - ID#234218)
Kitco sight changes???? Dow vs gold ratio???? farfel(whew!!)
As for changes to Kitco, I spent many hours lurking on this sight. I too would hate to see it changed. If I read posting that basically say the same thing, but maybe in a different way it helps my understanding. I'm afraid if it were to change too much, that would be lost, as well as other perspectives. However, unless the charge was excessive, I would not give up the sight. It offers too great an opportunity for knowledge, and I can damn sure use it.

Allen ( USA ) or Donald A. Pardon the ignorance, but what is the significance of the DOW/gold ratio.

farfel BOY!, am I glad you're back to normal. Your "GO GOLD" persistance and cheerleading really helps on the "bad days". I was beginning to think I was going to have to sell my PMs and by a chicken farm.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:19 - ID#286230)
C$Debt Issue.
Ted: Just asked for clarification --might get a response. But I think I found the problem. The G& M talks about general government debt--could be all governments. The Sun info is the Federal debt to GDP. We will/may see.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:20 - ID#376309)
Gold Calls
The follwing are the closing prices to the Jun99 and Dec99 comex gold calls. Price for nearby options can be found on the internet and some people have asked me about prices of out month calls. So here you are. This is Tuesdays closing price NOT today's but we did not move much today so they must be close.

300 - 1790
310 - 1270
320 - 950
330 - 670
340 - 510
350 - 450
360 - 390
370 - 310
380 - 260
390 - 190
400 - 120
410 - 110
420 - 90
430 - 80
440 - 60

300 - 2330
310 - 1830
320 - 1440
330 - 1120
340 - 850
350 - 650
360 - 490
370 - 370
380 - 300
390 - 280

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:21 - ID#433286)
Farfel & Allen
Farfel 16:01- Allen 17:34 Most excellent reads. Thanks.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:23 - ID#348286)
@Rhodium Roundup
575? So what gives.
Up from @ 200.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:28 - ID#316193)
After Sharefin's 01:54, A Re-read About The B.I.S...

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:34 - ID#242249)
I scroll as I can! Beleive me!
And I sincerely do not want to polute the marvellous site with unr
elated matters.
But if Ted act as Saddam with the promise he made to Bart, and set the fire to the oil fields unpunished, I will burst him in his foxhole.

But again ,....I am expecting that he will be a gentleman and meet the nettiquette.Why HE alone could run wild here?
Or how would you enjoy mess here?
You would not either be laughting if he was after your country with 99% false infos.
Here it is GOLD from KITCO,Montreal,QUEBEC ,...CANADA.. still free...for now.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:34 - ID#26669)
Is that a misprint?
Rhodium $575? Silver $6.26? More chaos than I thought. Or as Cherokee says, chaos and flux. Here is another reference I found on similar subjects, this time a neural network program for the common man. I haven't downloaded it yet, so for all I know it either won't work or worse.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:35 - ID#42365)
Bart, as far a bandwidth is concerned, i may be able to help...
I may be buying into a isp, and dont know if its possible to put a mirror up of this site.. or i know where i can place a shell machine also..

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:37 - ID#288295)
Shake, rattle and roll
If you live in/near Charleston SC or San Francisco CA, you might want to take notice - Mr. Lee says time to rock & roll, next 3 days.... to February predictions...JTF - what do you think??

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:37 - ID#26669)
MoReGoLd re rhodium
I recall there was a recent announcement by a major Japanese automaker ( but forget whether it was Nisson or Toyota ) that they were going back to palladium-rhodium catalysts due to the high cost of palladium only catalysts.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:38 - ID#269245)
I second MoReGoLd's question - what gives??
Rhodium... what is it? why is it? how is it traded? who trades it? etc... any good sources for more info? - c

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:39 - ID#288295)
Shake, rattle and roll

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:45 - ID#316193)
Here Goes Platinum Tomorrow, Sure..

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:47 - ID#393224)
Rubber Ball
Nice bounce in silver. The fact that it is usually late in U.S. trade that the POS gets shafted should tell you something.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:49 - ID#20137)
Forgive me, but I am going to check once again.

Does any Lurker or Kitco poster have any information as to where to purchase 1992 to 1998 Dinars and what they cost at this time? Does anyone know anyone that might know anyone that could provide us with this information? If so would you be so kind to try to obtain this information for this board.

Thanks in advance.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:50 - ID#225273)
Leland & BIS

Thanks for giving us that URL. I read the part about the BIS. It said: "The BIS is owned and controlled by central banks and aims to "foster international financial stability" ...."

I would say it's not doing a very effective job, as I can tell.

The Preacher

Lurker 777
(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:50 - ID#317247)
Free Closing Option Prices.
Has a limited quantity of closing Option Prices up to Dec 99
Go to: Price Data & Symbols
Then go to: Daily Futures Price Data

Has a more comprehensive variety of closing Option Prices but only until to Feb 99

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:51 - ID#242249)
Just in case you didn`t see:

Kitco Minerals & Metals
620 Cathcart #900
Montreal, CANADA
H3B 1M1

620 Cathcart #900
Montreal, CANADA
H3B 1M1
Tel ( 800 ) 363-7053
( 514 ) 875-4820
Fax ( 514 ) 875-648

Here we talk about gold related business!

Gracieusete de mon compatriote Bart Kitner who ask simply to respect THIS:

Conduct Guidelines for the Kitco Discussion


Dont post any derogatory remarks regarding any
groups race, religion, or ethnic background.
Dont use profanities or foul language.
Dont make any insulting remarks or statements that
provoke other participants.
Dont post any unrelated comments that are likely to
arouse a strong emotional response.
Don't use the group as a medium for promoting
websites in which you have an interest. Place a listing
instead in our "Web Resource Links" section. It's free.
Don't advertise. If you have something to sell use our
Classified Ads section. It's also free.
Don't participate as an investor if your interest is really
in promoting stocks. Identify yourself and use the
Classified Ads instead.

The Hatt
(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:54 - ID#294232)
Comex Numbers??????
Have not seem drawdown numbers,anyone have them? Thanks in advance.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 19:55 - ID#348286)
Here's a bit of background on this strange PM:

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:02 - ID#252127)
You should consider this one a long term call @ US $0.40

Aurizon Mines at Canadian $0.56 is an excellent call on gold, without the dirty ( costly ) rollovers for long term bulls. For your due dilligence here's a complete battery of news from one of Canada's great news agencies.

Also within you can find Aurizon's Home Page

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:02 - ID#288295)
The Hatt
I have been informed by the webmaster at that free access to COMEX inventories is now delayed by 8 hours.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:04 - ID#225273)
Jack & ARZ

The Hatt
(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:06 - ID#294232)
Thankyou Silverbaron!!!!!!!
Guess that their idea of supply and demand has tilted so they plan to enhance their cashflow!

Mike Sheller
(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:07 - ID#347447)
FARFEL 18:26
You have summed up the essence of Kitco. I concur with you most heartily. While I am as respectful as anyone of Bart's private property, I implore him: Let anarchy reign.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:07 - ID#255217)
My sentiments...
I'm fairly new to the site, and I am not nearly so analytical as some of the more erudite types, so forgive me if I echo another's views. I totally agree with FARFEL'S post of 18:26. He speaks my mind, now that he has taken off that black, frock coat and is walking among the congregation again.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:11 - ID#225273)
Jack & ARZ

I've been thinking about buying some ARZ myself. At this price it's a cinch to make a runup with an upmove in gold.
There is one thing to think about, though. The new project, Casa Berardi, will require ARZ to raise about $3 milllion in the market. And with the shares at this low price, many more, nearly 6 million will have to be issued to meet that objective.
And success at Casa Berardi is not a sure thing. It's rather complicated and ARZ must find an additional 500,000 ounces of gold to make it feasible.
Now, if ARZ is successful, then it moves up to the next level of mid-sized producer, which will be very good for shareholders.
Also, there is the potential of the huge volcanic sulphide deposit below the gold zones at Sleeping Giant.
But the company won't get to that until at least next year, being preoccupied with the new project.
My opinion is that short-term, with a runup in gold, ARZ is a cinch. But longterm, it has its work cut out for it -- it may or may not be successful. the risk and the potential reward are immense.
People should know that going in.
In short, witht the addition of Casa Berardi, it's not the company it used to be. It might be much better, but it might not do well there. We won't know until they try.

The Preacher

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:12 - ID#93232)
@Oliver...Please forgive my ignorance, but....
Is Quebec still a Province of Canada? Or has it separated from the Canadian union...or is it in the process of liberating itself? I humbly ask out of ignorance.
You know, I live in Oklahoma which is very proud and thankful to be a state in the United States ( we get more than we give, IMHO ) . I reckon the Quebec position may be akin to the posture of my neighbor to the south. Texans proudly speak of succession from the U.S. quite frequently. And I for one, think this would suit both parties well.
Maybe Quebec and Texas could unite to form the next super power. Ya'll might take kindly to those Texans.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:14 - ID#255217)
Bart, re: farfels's post of 18:26
I meant to address my previous post to you directly. Sorry.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:21 - ID#242249)
Pardon me but I realy don`t want to polute Bart`s Site so make your own research.All I can say is that KITCO ORIGINATE from MONTREAL QUEBEC, in the beautyfull CANADA.

The Hatt
(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:23 - ID#294232)
Gold $292.70 Lookin Good!
Gold is holding its own in overnight trading and is giving us the sign that the bottom is in! It appears the so-called damage from lack of confrontation with S.H. has been done. I hesitate to say this but I feel that we could see a nice move over the next couple of days!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:30 - ID#26793)
The Dow/Gold Ratio is the price of spot gold divided into the Dow. It prices the Dow in ounces of gold. The high in 1929 was 18.43 ounces. In 1932 it dropped down to 1.9 ounces. By 1966 it had climbed up to 28.61 which was the all time high until yesterday. The 1980 low was 1.4 ounces. I have a 100 year chart I can send by regular mail if you send me your postal address. My e.mail address is

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:31 - ID#288295)
$800 Rhodium with a week !!!
Bart, where can we get this stuff???

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:32 - ID#288295)
with = within

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:36 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Local Bottom at hand?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:39 - ID#348286)
@800. Rhodium
If RH flies I think Platinum cannot be far behind.......

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:41 - ID#227238)
The Hatt: So sorry. That bottom for gold is not in. Gold's bottom is really hangin' out and 'moonin' us. ..... : ) )

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:44 - ID#330175)
The Separatists of Quebec are racist BUFFOONS~~~~~~~led by Lucifer Bouchard

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:46 - ID#93232)
@Oliver...not much news of Quebec to research around here, but....
I will do what I can, for I now am curious. May I provide a bit of information for your benefit? In regards to your slam of Ted, it would be good for you to know that his wife is battling a life-threatening form of cancer. It should also be noted that Kristine travels frequently to the U.S. for treatment. I thought this would be good for you to know.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:47 - ID#41170)
crazytimes-I have only been subscribing for a short time and the main
reason I did because of my interest in Chad Meek and Mike Shellers
interest in the stars, and I might add have been pretty right on
the mark. Guessing the future ain't no easy game. She called the
October spill to the day and has been farely accurate with the
trend and that is what she is lookin for is the TREND. That is
enough for me. You got to be tough in this market and stay with
your convictions to WIN. You hear some of the moanins and groanins
posted here and that is real pain felt by these disgusted investors
[gamblers, dba-entrepreneurs]. Some people jest have a higher tolerance for pain and people wonder why they WIN. Terry Brasdshaw was asked one time about failure and he said "It did't exhist in my vocabulary". [We used to drink beer together in the OLD days after I had helped him pass
his accounting test].

Good Luck!!

Tally Ho

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:52 - ID#330175)
I was also wondering about that word "general" as it pertains to the debt%....

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:53 - ID#7568)

I wish that I had something insightful and intelligent to say but I am as baffled as the rest of you. The best guess as to what went on today revolved around the OTC options expiration. There were apparently a lot of calls sitting around the $6.00 level and thats where we ended. Sometimes the call writers do not like delivering. This may have been one of those times.

One interesting piece of news is that the fund that was under pressure with a large position did not bail out. This is very strange. The only inference that I can draw is that these people are unusually comfortable, especially since they are sitting on a good size loss. Unusual comfort usually goes along with good info, a bigger picture or good drugs. I wish that I knew which was the answer.

One oddity which does stand out is that the March/May switch is almost at full contango. If this still exists tomorrow we will be putting on this trade as big as we can. It is a free shot at any squeeze that develops in the next 2 months.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:54 - ID#153102)
Considering the United States is that ten mile square plot also known as foggy bottom, just what more does OK get from there than it gives. If you are referring to what OK gets from other States by way of tax levied by the feds in foggy bottom, don't answer cause I get your drift.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:54 - ID#252127)
Preacher; thanks for your insight's

Do you think that the drop in Aurizon's cash reserves could be the result of combined costs associated with development of the Douay Project which was shelfed due to the low gold price and the deep -probably expensive- drilling at Sleeping Giant.

For 12/31/96 cash was reported at $8.4 million and for 9/30/97 it was reported as 2.98 million.

Your insights on what the above drop in cash reserves was used for would be appreciated.

It would be nice to hear that they purchased some shares with part of that money.

I understand that after paying the initial $3.0 million they have up to 3 years before they are obligated to pay the next $5 million.

Development at Casa Beradi will require more cash from Aurizon. It certainly is an interesting little company.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 20:58 - ID#288295)
Mining stock screens
Here's a screen of mining stocks, for three criteria: price/book value less than 2debt/equity ratio less than 1% return on equity greater than 2p/bv d/e roe company1.47 0.06 9.0 Alta Gold1.88 0.14 6.2 Barrick0.63 0.05 6.4 Campbell Res.0.48 0.00 18.3 Cusac Gold1.23 0.00 4.1 Glamis Gold1.66 0.00 4.6 Gold Corp.1.45 0.33 13.7 Great Central1.67 0.24 3.9 Homestake1.27 0.00 7.2 La Teko Res.1.15 0.00 3.6 Northgate Expl1.58 0.00 9.1 U.S. Gold Corp1.20 0.28 9.8 WMC Limited

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:00 - ID#330175)
oliver............and my first and last response to you
you represent everything that is wrong with quebec-canada ( in short you are ridiculous ) and I found your 'rap' pathetic yet very predictable...Canada could use less leemings and more that speak their minds about this endless stupid debate about separation...see ya jerk!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:00 - ID#288295)
stock screens

Sorry - my ISP is compressing things on me again.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:02 - ID#26793)
Japan trade surplus up 180%

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:03 - ID#432148)
Bart's site
farfel said in his 18:26 "this site belongs to the people now...not Bart Kitner." I for one think that is absurd. Bart has a right to do whatever he wants with this site. It is his and there still are certain property rights. If he finds it necessary to charge a fee to continue the site, and it is reasonable, I would certainly pay the fee.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:07 - ID#93232)
But, additional benefits include a damn fine-lookin' flag and a passport that has saved my ass more than once.
And here's the bottom line....if anybody wanted to invade Oklahoma ( and why the hell would they???? ) they would have to march through Texas, the Land of George Bush, Stephen Austin, the late Lyndon B. Johnson and Jerry Jones or....Arkansas, the Land of Bill Clinton, the late Sam Walton ( actually an Okie ) and Don Tyson of through Kansas, the Land of Bob Dole ( and I can't think of anyone else ) . We're safe....fillerbustering would save us.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:08 - ID#342376)
those were the days my friend, we thought they'd never end, we'd sing and dance......
I came to this site as a Goldbug, I stayed because I witnessed every element that makes us human unfold on here. I have both laughed out loud at posts, and I have had a tear in my eye. One person's post ( and I can't remember who wrote it ) basically said that we'll get our bull market at some time, unfortunalely, because things will have to unravel in the ME at some point. I understood that, and I think everyone on here does also. A raging bull market in gold means much chaos in the world and bad times for many people. I believe a great deal of people that are drawn to gold can see the "coming dark clouds" on the horizon, and have for some time. I know I have. I'm not good with analysis or fundamentals, but I have seen the writing on the wall for some time. This site has made me think also, and it's just great to have people from all over the world commenting without even knowing thier sex, race, ethnic backround, etc. The site will change if a bull market in gold starts, of that I'm sure. When the tide changes, lots of people will arrive that may not be goldbugs at all, but will want information. It reminds me of what happened in the town I live in. New Hope, Pennsylvania. New Hope years ago, was an "artist colony". Everyone, in nearby towns considered New Hope the black sheep of the county. But it was the most interesting place to live with artists, writers and eccentrics the norm. Then, tourism got hold in the 80's and it's never been the same since. I suppose that sounds like snobbism. Maybe it is, but it's just the truth. I suspect that's what may happen with Kitco at some point. At the same time, what makes the site so interesting it that there is no editing. This thing just unfolds. Even the difference between last night and tonight is astounding. I don't know what the answer is except Ive enjoyed finding this site. It reminds me of what local tavern was like some years ago. Alot of banter but with some real substance. Thanks to everyone and especially Bart.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:08 - ID#197307)
Silver making the news!
Amazing pretty big piece on pbs tonight,a whole spiel on
WB and then went into 1890's depression and rampant inflation
and how the main topic in the pres.election was gold or
silver standard,republicans for gold democrats for silver,whew
and then they tied it all in to the Wizard of OZ ( wtitten
in that era ) Oz was gold,theyellow brick road etc.,they
had everyone tied into it,if you get a chance check it out.
I can't seem to get the name straight Mcnehr news or something
,but I'm sure you can get it at their web site

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:13 - ID#330175)
Caper-----------where the 'heck' have you been?
Welcome back~~~~~~~~~

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:13 - ID#433286)
Studeo R.
Hope you haven't forgotten the Jayhawks did you Okies in pretty good the other nite.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:13 - ID#26793)
Southeast Asian vehicle production to drop 38%

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:20 - ID#26793)
U.S. Gold demand up 9% over 1996

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:21 - ID#288295)

The bizarre thing is that there are so few of us who can see those dark clouds forming...

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:22 - ID#348286)
@CNBC Gold up 1.30
Kitco only .60 ?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:23 - ID#26793)
Comex settlement news

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:23 - ID#93232)
@Goldhawker...Rock, Chalk Gold!
Very pleased to inform you that daughter #1 is JHawk grad, daughter #2 is currently at Lawrence....guess I've become a JHawker too! ohmy! Sooners round ball will improve pretty soon....good coaches Williams and Samson, eh? Rock, Chalk, JayHawks!!! #1.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:25 - ID#432157)
Ted Oliver----Quebec
As a PROUD Canadian ,I am sick of the Quebec problem after spending about 35 yrs of my life there I find the problem is being supported my junior Hitler's who are playing on a generally poorly educated people who have not been told the TRUTH of what life will be like after seperation .They are getting the old BS a chicken in every pot and a Cadillac in every driveway.

As fellow CANADIAN's I just wish ONE person would tell them the truth in a manner that they would believe .

It could DESTROY our COUNTRY and after the Olympics this would be almost Criminal.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:25 - ID#153102)
If Texas gets out of this Constitution, I'm applying for citizenship and emigrating and that's no jive.
Some day, old friend, you will know that stars 36 through 50 on that pretty colored cloth are a fraud and that until 1914 nobody even needed a passport to go anywhere. Now, the feds can lock you out of your own country. And as for eggszactly, I take it it's alright to be on welfare extorted from other people in other States so long as the whole State is on welfare. I must say I never expected that from you.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:27 - ID#93232)
This is my singular gold post for the month.
Gold will be a handsome investment over the next five years. And, gold can not make you happy unless you already are.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:27 - ID#26793)
@Silverbaron, Crazytimes
Dark clouds? What dark clouds? The 21 day daily sentiment has risen to 71.38% bulls, its highest number in close to 3 years.

Bully Beef
(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:28 - ID#259282)
Derivitives and the consiracy against gold
Could anyone who understands derivatives please explain how a tangled mess of them in major Asian banks could be somehow linked to the depressed gold market? Do you remember that young Brit who got so deeply indebted that he ruined a whole bank. Hows that for a good conspiracy? If we can pump that one out on the web tonite I'll bet 10 bucks we can drive the price of gold up 5 dollars tommorrow.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:30 - ID#348127)

So true but I have begun to wonder if the bottom ever will fall out. We should have come close so many times in the last couple of years but becauise of spin Drs., PPT and the like you have to wonder how long the inevitable can be held off.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:30 - ID#153102)
"One oddity which does stand out is that the March/May switch is almost
at full contango. If this still exists tomorrow we will be putting on
this trade as big as we can. It is a free shot at any squeeze that
develops in the next 2 months"

I would take it as a favor if you would clarify and elaborate on that passage, sir.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:31 - ID#288295)

A contrary indicator if there ever, ever was one.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:32 - ID#26793)
China struggling against full-blown price deflation

The Hermit
(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:35 - ID#372248)
@ crazytimes
Your post of 21:08. This is exactly why we visit this site! Thank you for you insight.

Bart, thank you again for this terrific site!

The Hermit.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:36 - ID#330175)
James----------I'm stooopid(what's a GB) huh...........April Gold UP 1.30 @ 294.40
didn't ya hate those kids who would go to the teacher ta rat on ya~~~~

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:38 - ID#93232)
You would make a fine Texan. It is a good land and freedom abounds already.
Me, I need a job, but I have a chronic back problem and a high school degree that makes me over-qualified for virtually all desk jobs here. Thanks for your consideration.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:38 - ID#368244)
" Life is a game old Chum" ain't it grand?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:38 - ID#342376)
I like Frank Veneroso's comment about "the slingshot effect". The longer the POG stays down the higher it will go once it's released.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:39 - ID#197307)
MoReGold, GC J8 up from close
a little divergence,maybe last trades of the day were shorts
covering,closing price does not always reflect the real
( what you would be filled at the market ) Larry Williams
calls it murder on close instead of market on close.
on the SILVER story went to pbs they have the whole thing
I got to learn how to copy and paste,meantime check ,then it's Leher news hour

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:39 - ID#393224)
Gold calls with no expiry
I am holding call options on gold that do not expire. They are shares in 'penny dreadful' gold companies. They are companies with huge exploration area but no money. If gold keeps going down, some of the companies will go bust. Others will go into hibernation to wait for 'warmer' weather. I buy these shares for peanuts on 'bad gold days'. I then just forget about them. They are virtually unsalable when gold is down, so stop-losses do not apply.

Now for the good part. WHEN, NOT IF, gold recovers, the upside is 10 x or more. Rights issues will provide the money, big companies will cast an envious eye on all that ground, and these little blue sky companies shall again be in demand. Look at the charts!! Even in a long-term bear market, these charts look like something from a yoyo factory!! 100 000 shares at 2 cents/per looks pretty good when it gets to 20 cents. I can show you a hundred charts with exactly that history!!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:42 - ID#242249)
Your are right, and I am a proud Canadian too.

But Kitco is not a vendetta forum....

Look again the sh!t from this not gentleman Ted:

Date: Wed Feb 25 1998 20:44

Ted ( Studio.R ) ID#330175:

The Separatists of Quebec are racist BUFFOONS~~~~~~~led by

Lucifer Bouchard

Bart this guy is out of the netiquette and full of vinegar...Do you realy want I make a killing here on the site with this assehole?

Here we are again.........

Ted why in the first place you ever moved in Canada?

Is the answer that time you wanted to be an other sucker on or free Canadian healh system? To have a good return on your USD over CD$ and have a good life? To get a piece of a country a little more as a last sanctuary or a sanatorium for your completlly unproductive bones and a..hole.

What did you ever bring to this country? Exactly WHAT? Tell me WHAT you bring else than your a..hole.

And you dummy sitting on your hay dare to sh!t on the face of the peoples of the best country on the face of the planet,the number ONE rated living conditions on the world....!See UNO...

What`s wrong with Canada?

WHAT in the world make you an accurate withness of what is wrong in Canada?

You did sent your check to help those peoples without electricity in Ontario and in Quebec? Did you used your chain saw and your pickup full of wood in Montreal as many...?Did you send a check to Californians in distress or Floridians tornadoesnnt?

I did ! Both .

And I am still a producer of goods and wealth and worried

with Canada and DEMOCRATIC Quebec.And you hurt me MAD!

Your posts do not bring NOTHING to the Gold matters here. I do not want to read this forum to know if if you are drunk or drown in the sea or if you house is burnt to the ground neither the weather in your area. There are plenty of weather sites...I do not want to know if your dog eat your plate neither I want to know your receipes.. or if your ISP is down.....

In the begining when you came in at This great QUEBEC Kitco Site you look sympatical, but now your true bigot nature appeared and I have anough.

I told Bart that if he do not send you with Heavey Hitter in the ether, I will challenge your creazyness every time and this site will suffer unfortunately very baddly.

So SHUTTUP... or talk as a gentleman.

And I will forgive and forget.

Gracieusete de mon compatriote Bart Kitner who ask simply to respect


Conduct Guidelines for the Kitco Discussion



Dont post any derogatory remarks regarding any

groups race, religion, or ethnic background.

Dont use profanities or foul language.

Dont make any insulting remarks or statements that

provoke other participants.

Dont post any unrelated comments that are likely to

arouse a strong emotional response.

Don't use the group as a medium for promoting

websites in which you have an interest. Place a listing

instead in our "Web Resource Links" section. It's free.

Don't advertise. If you have something to sell use our

Classified Ads section. It's also free.

Don't participate as an investor if your interest is really

in promoting stocks. Identify yourself and use the

Classified Ads instead.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:43 - ID#227290)
Jack & ARZ

I went back and looked at ARZ's press releases for '97. The company lost money in each of the first 3 quarters, about $2 million. This is not normal, but the low gold price hurt them.
I didn't find how much they spent drilling Sleeping Giant. But it was only 10 holes, so less that $1 million.
And, you are correct, they did buy back many shares. The plan was for to buy back 10% of the company. They never a separate release as to how that process suceeded. It may have been in a quarterly report, but I didn't see it.
I know they're hopeful TVX will take shares for payment. So maybe they intend to give them shares out of the treasury. If I recall, they had 34 million shares out. If they bought back 10%, that would be 3.4 million, nearly $2 million at today's price.
So maybe they won't have to issue as many shares as I thought.
Still, the project itself holds risk. ARZ says it can't work unless a minimum of 500,000 ounces is located in that West Zone. And when I asked them to fudge, they wouldn't budge that number.
Of course, they're hopeful there's over a million more undiscovered ounces down there to go with the 500,000 already in the West Zone.
Then hauling that ore on tracks down that 5 kilometer haulage way will be no easy task, either. TVX has some cave-ins and the haulage way is blocked off at one point.
Currently, the mill is next to the East Zone. ARZ wants to find the extra ounces, sink a shaft into the West Zone. And then either move the mill to that area or haul it above ground.
There's a lot in front of them.
Hope this helps.

The Preacher

Psilver Psyched
(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:44 - ID#216217)
We had very similar trading action at the end of December also to an endpoint of $6.00.

Bully Beef
(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:45 - ID#259282)
Technical analyisist says bull market over
Oh I don't know I think I heard that anyway. Actually this same one predicted the low on gold for the week of the 23rd. He does fibro..something. He says that gold graphs look good for a bounce. Ride the wave man.. looking good !!!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:48 - ID#153102)
Sounds like you ought to consider emigrating to foggy bottom to get closer to the seat of benefits. I have been there and seen and everybody is at a desk. And they think high school is toking when teacher is talkin'.

Every State's representatives come home and tell the voters, "You are gettin' more than you are givin' and it's cause you keep electin' me."

This Constitution will be the ruin of us. National Debt. What's it good for ? Flags, passports, and borrowed handouts.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:51 - ID#42365)
Mozel - Texas
Well Texas plain kicks ass btw.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:52 - ID#433286)
Studio R. Hope it was more than the intentional spelling
that prompted kind words. Class of 69. Live in Washington State now -- but on occasion miss those rolling plains. Sooner coach Samson shows great class -look out K.U. As Satchel said don't look back something might be gaining on you.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:53 - ID#288295)
Bully Beef
If you think it's over, then run ( don't walk ) to your broker and buy Dec 99 LEAP puts on the S&P500, way-way out of the money...A slam-dunk with Y2K approaching....

Lurker 777
(Wed Feb 25 1998 21:55 - ID#317247)
Ted I am grieved to hear of your wife's cancer and I will pray for her complete recovery. I have battled throat cancer and my father and brother were diagnosed with cancer and treated last year. Please accept my heart felt sympathy for your very difficult circumstances.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:07 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Mozel -- We think quite alike.

Crazytimes -- Also like the 'pub scene' for proper discussion of things. I've looked a lot, but have never found anything that has emulated it! This place does come close at times. Once you get into the 'swing' of a 'scene' it is ALL over! Good, bad, or ugly. Just protect your precious senses.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:07 - ID#300202)
Sentenced to two weeks @ Cheticamp for French Language Upgrading in an effort to enable you to read the French on the Kellog's Box. If u have a
proven ability u cud probably start ur own Francais Kitco Version. Methinks Oliver is posting from Paris a la Jacques Parizeau ( loved Quebec
so much-he moved to France ) Get a life Ted. By the way Ted-how's the weather in Cape Breton? The only way I can find out is from you.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:07 - ID#368244)
Gold up 1.5% in Tokyo, buy it boys, buy it!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:09 - ID#330175)
very windy

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:10 - ID#242249)
Folowing Lurkker 777 news

I am sorry for your wife's cancer,......

I will try my best to understand your state of mind in these circumstances.....

But please Bart`s Netiquettes...


Kitco Minerals & Metals


620 Cathcart #900

Montreal, CANADA

H3B 1M1

Tel ( 800 ) 363-7053

( 514 ) 875-4820

Fax ( 514 ) 875-648

Here we talk about gold related business!

Gracieusete de mon compatriote Bart Kitner who ask simply to respect


Conduct Guidelines for the Kitco Discussion



Dont post any derogatory remarks regarding any

groups race, religion, or ethnic background.

Dont use profanities or foul language.

Dont make any insulting remarks or statements that

provoke other participants.

Dont post any unrelated comments that are likely to

arouse a strong emotional response.

Don't use the group as a medium for promoting

websites in which you have an interest. Place a listing

instead in our "Web Resource Links" section. It's free.

Don't advertise. If you have something to sell use our

Classified Ads section. It's also free.

Don't participate as an investor if your interest is really

in promoting stocks. Identify yourself and use the

Classified Ads instead.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:11 - ID#330175)
Lurker 777
Thankx bro~~~~~~

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:11 - ID#300202)
Sorry Ted-just read Lurker's post. Have to scroll back some more.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:14 - ID#330175)
I'll try and understand yer state of mind too ( don't get yer hackles up--I'm just kiddin ya bro!! ) ...WAR is!!...+ Go Canada-Quebec-Gold!!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:14 - ID#342376)
So who hosts the party when gold gets to $1000? We'd be coming from all over the world....

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:15 - ID#288331)
Merrill Lynch and Silver - What Do They Know That We Do Not?
Read the post concerning Merrill Lynch's outlook for silver. Statement was they saw no fundamental reason for a silver price above $5.50. What fundamental information could they possibly have that we do not? Is it true that in 1997 silver supply from all sources ( including recovery ) was less than 600 million ozs and silver demand was in excess of 800 million? Is it true that Warren Buffett has acquired in excess of 120 million ozs of the remaining stockpile ( of which 40 million has yet to be delivered ) ? Is it true that COMEX stockpiles have plunged from in excess of 250 million ozs down to 90 million in recent history? Is it true that a sustained price of between $8.00 and $10.00 would be necessary to encourage significant new production?

With silver moving contrary to the "logic" of these fundamentals, what fundamental information could Merrill have to justify their statemeent? Since they are my broker and I have accumulated several thousand ozs of silver and silver mining shares over the past year I think I will ask about it tomorrow. I will point out that Merrill never informed me they expected silver to fall to the $5.50 area!

As a side point, Merrill stores my physical silver for me and charges me a fee for doing so. Would Merrill under any circumstances loan my silver out ( and receive the hefty lease payments as well as charging me a storage fee ) ?

PS - thanks to the various responses to questions I raised earlier. I am a somewhat tarnished but nonetheless continued faithful believer in the expectation that silver ( and gold ) are poised for moves to much higher levels.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:16 - ID#42365)
Oliver shuttup, you wasting much space..
tired of ppl arguing over stoopid rules and makin derogatory comments.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:17 - ID#31868)
If I am not mistaken Merrill Lynch did not turn bullish on gold the last go round until it hit $800.00 - no kidding.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:17 - ID#210114)
Sorry to disappoint you but I am not a goldbug and am only here for information.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:17 - ID#242249)
You want it NASTY?

Hold on to your Hat ?

I will be here till the Bart`s Rules are sovereing!


Kitco Minerals & Metals

620 Cathcart #900
Montreal, CANADA
H3B 1M1
Tel ( 800 ) 363-7053
( 514 ) 875-4820
Fax ( 514 ) 875-648

Here we talk about gold related business!

Gracieusete de mon compatriote Bart Kitner who ask simply to respect

Conduct Guidelines for the Kitco Discussion


Dont post any derogatory remarks regarding any
groups race, religion, or ethnic background.
Dont use profanities or foul language.
Dont make any insulting remarks or statements that
provoke other participants.
Dont post any unrelated comments that are likely to
arouse a strong emotional response.
Don't use the group as a medium for promoting
websites in which you have an interest. Place a listing
instead in our "Web Resource Links" section. It's free.
Don't advertise. If you have something to sell use our
Classified Ads section. It's also free.
Don't participate as an investor if your interest is really
in promoting stocks. Identify yourself and use the
Classified Ads instead.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:17 - ID#93232)'s just about the right time for.....
Yes, my friend! A Cubalibre! A happy "run for the wood" to you and as always, GO GOLDBUGS!!! BTW, Lini found me an old woolen turtle-neck sweater ( probably sixty or seventy years old ) that says "Goldbugs" across the front. Evidently, there was a "minor league" football team here way back when that had the name.... this according to an old local sportscaster. Fits and everything. Cool, huh?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:18 - ID#30116)
What did I miss? Or more specifically, what did you say to provoke such an outpouring of kindness?

Oliver, if you're going to make a point of pointing out someones 'errors of the rules', perhaps you should not violate the rules in the name of 'some higher calling'...

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:20 - ID#334280)
Oliver: Nice 21:42 comment!
You are a funny person. My sentiments exactly.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:21 - ID#210114)
Frank Veneroso
Does Frank Veneroso have a net syte??

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:23 - ID#433286)
Local newspaper "Investor's Notebook" had artical today re: "The Big Picture'
newsletter. "The lesson of the past decade, ( earlier reference to oil service companies and domestic banks bought at lows ) The Big Picture said is that 1,000 percent gains are born out of utter despair over an investment sector whose long-term viability is nearly assured.Right now, the industry that comes closest to fitting that description is gold minning". The Big Pictre's two favorite gold stocks are Battle Mountain and TVX Gold. Comments please.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:23 - ID#31868)
A prayer for you and your lady from Cuervo Central.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:24 - ID#300202)
@Oliver a la truth
Don't get picky Oliver-we get Quebec rammed down our throats everyday
a la T.V., Radio Canada, newspapers etc. Referendums ( too numerous to mention voted non, non, non a la separation ) & still we hear it on a never ending basis. Surely u must be tired of it also. It is tearing
this country apart. Tell ur politicians to quit. English Canada has no
quarels with your citizenry. We love u.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:26 - ID#173274)
@the scene
I thought the low in the metals would occur sometime Tuesday, ( from my last weeks posting ) . Maybe it has for gold, platinum, and palladium. However, silver has degraded further. I am also still looking for 290ish April gold. That still hasn't been met. As for silver, there is now no particular downside target except for short term 5.85 and then potentially 5.40. Those are close approximates. It could be that any real runs in silver might be 'awhile' in occurring. But bounces are very possible. The news, as always, is in the price first. You'll hear about the reasons MUCH LATER on! TOO late to do you any good. Current price activity IS KING for 'news'. Take that to heart above and beyond all else for trading purposes. How many times must THAT be repeated?

S&P is still on target for even higher highs. Take that as you will. It AIN'T over quite yet!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:26 - ID#242249)
( Ok Ted as Clinton said to Saddam TEST and VERIFY BRO )
I am not A Kennet Starr, I just want you be fair for CANADA!

That`s ALL my friend.

Just Dont post any derogatory remarks regarding any
groups race, religion, or ethnic background.
Dont use profanities or foul language.
Dont make any insulting remarks or statements that
provoke other participants.
Dont post any unrelated comments that are likely to
arouse a strong emotional response.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:28 - ID#368244)
@ Crazy

When gold gets to a 1000 an oz., I have a 40 Ft. triple deck house boat, as many as will fit, are cordially invited. Don' t drink often, but might have a shot are two of that Cuervo Gold.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:28 - ID#153102)
@Police @Eldorado
G-Nutz ( Oliver shuttup, you wasting much space.. ) ID#42365:
tired of ppl arguing over stoopid rules and makin derogatory comment
Double on.

@Eldorado Thanks for speaking up.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:33 - ID#153102)
I'd offer a prayer for your wife, but religion is off netiquette. The best anyway.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:34 - ID#17796)
Bart- ALL
Thank you Bart for the site. It has been an education in gold and human nature. Actually, it has helped teach me patience about as much as my kids-a whole bunch. Now for GOLD. If you lurk or post here everyone has access to about the same knowledge base. I have said before that any predictions on gold are more guess than anything else because we lack the knowledge of what is actually going on with the CB's, Korea, China, BIS, UBS, oil, derivatives, etc., etc., etc. Interstingly, your US government found it fit to expand, as of 01/01/1998, the type of bullion that could be held in IRA's and retirement accounts to include basically all major gold and silver coins and other bullion traded on major exchanges. Please see IRC, sections 403 and 408. Just as Roosevelt exempted pre-1933 coin for a reason -his friends had sent the coins overseas already, this is a "marker" not to be ignored. Why would your friendly federal government, suddenly, change this law that previously limited the holdings to only american coins? Maybe there were not enough coins for the demand of those in the know. There is no other reason for this change in the law. I doubt the change was intended to promote foreign coins. Put the puzzle together. Maybe gold really is short. My GUESS is that it is. Of course, this makes Another and his/her THOUGHTS more probable. I'm buying more physical as soon as I can set up my retirement account to do so. RJ, any comments on the procedure would be appreciated. IMHO. Tom

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:35 - ID#242249)
( Mozel)
Using a little more bandwith ...just want to tell you as the TD Bank CEO said to Canadians yesterday....Canada WAKE UP ..QUEBEC IS asking only to be in CANADA with his rights and dignity..that`s all he want.

No extra money no extra power...Plain and simple fairness!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:37 - ID#330175)
Oliver-------------then I guess I can't say nothin eh
can I say 'darn'?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:37 - ID#255190)
PH in LA

Saw Sharefin's post and, yes, its sure interesting. It seems a plausible overlay to what we already know about global capital movements. As to the fellows research we can only guess since he is not providing references of foot notes. There is alot of commentary since I do not beleive the BIS would simple state their beef in any direct way. I'd like to see the source documents he is refering to and how his interpretation of them was developed.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:41 - ID#330175)
We're losing our MOmentum t'nite(big MO as Geo Bush would say) and --
April Gold is now only up .70 @ 293.80~~~~~~~~~thankx Mozel~~~~hit em Caper!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:41 - ID#426220)

"There are now two things that will trigger the collapse of Japan: Financial deregulation of the country, or the devaluation of the yuan. Should the Japanese deregulate AND China devalue, the collapse of worldwide financial markets will occur within months, if not weeks."

...John Kutyn

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:42 - ID#30116)
I never could figure the SnP out... so I built a couple systems to look at it. They say ( currently ) up ( what a brave call, eh? ) . What I think doesen't matter... Much better this way$$ Now, how do you figure out gold??? The only thing that I think is tougher to figure out, is the IRS rules. Come to think of it, the IRS rules are really quite simple... Just give us your money. :- ) )

Time to rest the .283 brain cell left...

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:42 - ID#153102)
Hey, bon ami, I got fleur de lis on my bathroom floor. I'm witcha. In, out, or across; it's all the same to me with you and Canada.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:42 - ID#255190)
Snowball re: DOW/Gold ratio

After noodling with Donald's D/G chart it seems to me that a Dow to Gold ratio of 5 is an equilibrium point over the long haul. Half the time the number is higher and half the time lower. At the current level 28.7 we are in very thin air .. never been this high before in 100 years and probably will not stay here very long. What could happen to adjust the ratio? POG rises dramaticly, DOW drops dramaticly or BOTH. At this point physical ownership of gold look ALOT better than stox. This doesn't happen very often and is an historic opportunity to be on the right side of what some here have called an "asset inversion".

Needless to say if the D/G was 1.5 I'd be in stox in a minute!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:42 - ID#242249)
( Ted )
May I say MOIS...!

ted butler__A
(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:43 - ID#317184)
D.A. - could be the options expiration, could be the position limit rule that comes into play the day before first notice day that limits funds to 1500 contracts in the delivery month ( exceptin' the shorts ) . In any event, the decks look cleared. Just curious - why no comment on my contention that silver has the biggest short position ever? No offense intended - look forward to your posts. I do hope you and RJ are right on the predictions of the near term explosion - I really need the money.

By the way, Mr. Buffett should be one happy dude - with todays price closing below his announcement price, no one can ever excuse him of manipulating the price and any replicator has been given a green light.

Ted - all the best.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:49 - ID#153102)
RE IRA. Wish I'd never heard of it. Get your money out while you can. Any rule they change has one goal: more tax. Period.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:49 - ID#300202)
Talk about rights & dignity. Come to Cape Breton Sir. La Belle Province
is not the centre of the universe. I have no intention to offend but
my limited experience going through Quebec a la Trans Canada Hwy is
extremely negative. I get dumped on for my lack of linquistic skills
a la francais in gaz bars, restaurants & u name it. Simply tired of it.
Give it up. My simple minded take on it is ur self centred politicians
who make u believe u have a problem. IT'S DESTRUCTIVE.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:51 - ID#252150)
Ted@Maybe you're just a relucant GB until your ABX gets back to breakeven
Sorry to read about your Wife's illness & I wish her a speedy recovery.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:52 - ID#173274)
@the scene
TYoung -- There you go. You WON'T BE ignoring REAL fundamentals in doing so. Take personal possesion of your metals. Bury them if you must. Keep them out of reach of the 'powers-that-be'. And while you are at it, keep in particular mind the 'other' difficulties that arise during crisis of many kinds. 'S.E. Asia' should be in mind when accomodating this. I.E., A bit of 'other' storage would also ease your mind too. And also, don't emulate a chinese 'target'. A bit of precaution/insurance is necitated.

Lurker 777
(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:54 - ID#317247)
RJ: Are your clients buying or selling Silver? The price is starting to look tempting. Buy and average in every $.22 move. Hmmmm E-mail me

Glenn: Got a April 290 put worth about $320. If I put a stop in at $250 and gold moves up $2.00 what are the chances I get filled? Should I hold?

Bart: I am thinking about taking delivery of a Comex 100oz bar like Tyler Rose. Will you buy Comex 995% or better 100oz bars? How much under spot?

Tyler Rose: How much over the contract price does it cost to take delivery? Shipping,handling & hidden costs.

All: Can Canadians buy Silver $5CN face value Maple Leafs directly from the Bank or Mint?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:56 - ID#342376)
Very kind of you....

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:56 - ID#255190)
My prayer is with you and your wife as well. I'm sure that many here, whether stated or not, will be on their knees on your behalf. You two are not alone in this.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 22:58 - ID#288295)
TYoung @ IRA bullion
Something to consider ( for U.S. citizens ) is how the government could react in a financial meltdown situation - when everything was going down while gold/silver were going ballistic.IMVHO, they would probably try the bullion seizure trick again, and they would first opt to go after the easiest source of gold to trace - that in IRA accounts. This they could confiscate with the stroke of a pen ( at their price ) , leaving no recourse to the IRA owner. As we all know, there is some historical precedent of the USG to seize gold bullion, apply windfall profits taxes, etc., so be careful and consider your options.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:02 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Panda -- Gold. How does one figure it. Usually by support and resistance. I see support at 290 April basis. If it cracks it by much, then it goes lower. We'll know soon. I'm kind of pissed that it hasn't already touched it! Shoot, maybe it won't. Maybe my call is a tad early. Maybe it DOES have to get into/through the weekend. But, I could see a very distinct possibility of gold going up and silver going down. Didn't the opposite happen? Why not the obverse. Interesting times! Interesting markets!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:05 - ID#17796)
Anyone believe Japan just might figure out it needs to do something to keep the Yen home come April 1? How dumb does the rest of the world think Japan is? They will: sell US bonds; raise interest rates; buy gold and GOD knows what else to save their country-just as any country would. Japan will not sacrifice itself for the WEST. Fair warning "round eyes" has been said so many times before we do not hear. Open the minds eye to see what is possible-not necessarily what has been done before. I think March/April will bring a surprise to the WEST and the round eyes. Yes, it's a guess, but what the hell, it's mine and I get to sleep with it. Oh, by the way, my coins never seem to change in value in my "eyes", round as they might be. Tom

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:06 - ID#153102)
@SilverBaron Re IRA's
They can make a rule tomorrow penalizing withdrawals at 80% if made before age 89.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:07 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Panda -- As with ANY governmental rule, YOU take the risk, We'll take the profit! Can't be made much simpler than that. Don't you just LOVE 'freedom'?

Mo in To
(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:08 - ID#347205)
I have just been lurking tonight and read many posts re: your wife's illness. This must be a difficult time for you, our thoughts and prayers go with you and your wife.
Mo in To
( yup in Canada,eh? )

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:09 - ID#234218)
Re: Donald-A, Allen(USA) & Ted
Gentlemen I thank you for your input. I am mostly into stocks currently with some physical. Seems like a correction maybe in order. I'm not to sure of the workings on physical ( eagles ) . Bought them mainly to hold as insurance. Might be time to learn more on their liquidity.

TED: Having recently been through this with my mother, I can tell you there's a world of hope and wonder in prayer. There was for us!! I too will say prayers for you and your wife. It's the only thing, but it's the best thing we all can do.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:09 - ID#17796)
Thank you for your comments. Maybe some pre-1933's might be in order. Hate to see that premium confiscated. Just another risk-reward issue in my uncomplicated life. Tom

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:11 - ID#287358)

ted my friend....a prayer crosses my lips, and extra
smoke-signals slip....amongst the starry sky.....
the flame is yours...the ssm seat made for two.


(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:11 - ID#224149)
Love Those Cigars
Ted ---I will be dancing with Castro in Cuba---All those long sandy beaches with no uptight Americans Yes those great Cuban cigars with Wine, Women and Song---Like Pink Floyd would say Wish you were Here I will of course miss the great comedy acts on Kitco, ---- ANOTHER the champion of innuendoes and who could ever forget the all American Rocket scientist that turns on a dime. If you see me at the Cape ---Beware--- I will be riding an El Nino ---Full of Hot Air ----If you see me on CNBC you know Im shorting Gold -----If you see me on CNN then you know I got paid off ---If you see me on CBC you know Im a communist with very little money ---See you all in a few weeks ----Away to Pack and fly.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:12 - ID#252150)
Quebec@A Ridiculous Situation.
I lived a total of 12 years in Quebec. I was stationed at St Hubert-the Airbase, when Pierre Laporte was murdered in 1972. In fact they found his body in a car trunk in the civilian air field right next to the the Base Incredibly, 1 of his murderers is now an active member in the separatist party.

IMO, Bouchard & his ilk are no better than traitors & deserve no more respect. They know full well that if separation did occur that the average Quebecer would be much worse off financially. However, because of their silly ideology & their maniacal craving for more power, they are willing to lower the livivg standards of millions of people.

They think that they-the leaders would then then be big fish in a smaller pond. The truth is that they would be simply pond scum in a pond where the oxygen ( business investments ) would eventually be depleted & they would all suffocate.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:14 - ID#304282)
Insider selling in AOL Netscape and Yahoo

Lurker 777
(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:14 - ID#317247)
Self directed IRA with American Church Trust Company
1-800-228-8825. Buy and sell Bullion gold .995%, silver .999%, platinum .9995% and palladium .9995%. Also, stocks, real estate, bonds, paper or ????.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:18 - ID#153102)
@James Leave Frenchy alone. Curb Canadian Pride.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:18 - ID#17796)
mozel& Eldorado
Thanks for your thoughts -Only so much available cash for physical outside of the retirement accounts- the Dow was kind for many years. As it is said- never be sad to take profits a little early- late doesn't cut it. Tom

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:19 - ID#17796)
Lurker 777
Have their forms already. Any other options? Thanks. Tom

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:19 - ID#42365)
Cool check this song bout saddam.
happened to snag this one floatin round.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:20 - ID#242249)
As you seems to me yet more retort than TED:


Talk about rights & dignity. Come to Cape Breton Sir. La Belle
is not the centre of the universe. I have no intention to offend but
my limited experience going through Quebec a la Trans Canada Hwy is
extremely negative. I get dumped on for my lack of linquistic skills
a la francais in gaz bars, restaurants & u name it. Simply tired of it.
Give it up.

HOW in this FORUM can you say with authority what your are casting on Quebec?Almost all Quebecers wish to live in a Canada`s REAL Federation.

Do You Remember the Love EVENT in Montreal two days prior to the referendum?...We LOVE YOU ..WE LOVE BUS LOAD!
We dream that there will never be another referendum and that Canada was to FIX everything make Quebec irritate in the constitution.

What has realy happen AFTER?

NOTHING!..Or... more fight and more incomprehesible speechs.

Are we going to leave our futur to those politicians or wake-up?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:21 - ID#252150)
TYoung re:Japan
I think that we may find more yen being exchanged for $ after the end of March. The Japanese Cos repatriate foreign exchange before their Mar 31 year end & then the flows usually reverse
I would'nt be surprised to see the long bond @ 5.5% by May.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:22 - ID#288155)
SCMP--Thursday February 26 1998

Standard Chartered sees SOARING BAD DEBT ahead

Standard Chartered Bank has hoisted its bad debt provisions a record 143 per cent in reaction to what it calls Asia's "first economic crisis for 10 years and the worst ever in some countries".

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:24 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Panda -- my current thoughts on the S&P are the same as posted last week; I think into the first week of March are basically 'up'. Best I'll try to do at this time except that I also said my views at that time would also be dependent on the then current price activity. Perhaps others might also elaborate on that scene. Good trading to you. As usual, all caveats apply.

PH in LA
(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:25 - ID#225408)
Just a simple question.
Can anyone explain what it means that the Euro will be "at least partially backed by gold"? Just what does the "partially" mean. Either it is or it isn't. It is mentioned often withpercentages such as 25% etc. being mentioned. Will the holder of a Euro be able to convert it to gold? Convert part of it? Like 25%? At what price?

Or does it merely mean that the central bank will hold gold? Like the US gold at Ft. Knox? Just what are they talking about anyway?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:27 - ID#153102)
Listen. Seriously. That's not your retirement account. You have no contract or other rights in it. That account belongs to the government. Get your money while you still can. When they change the rules and take your money to keep social security afloat or pay interest on bonds, it will be too late.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:30 - ID#42365)
yeah i like physical gold best always did look good in my palm.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:30 - ID#31868)
For those of you looking for a stock that will go to the moon when the rest of the market is tanking - BEARX - take a peek. It is run by David Tice and is highly recommended by the folks at Strategic Investment -

Also, I suggest that you set up wire transfer capability with your bank and brokers so that you can make pronto transfers when you feel you want to move things around. Get all the proper numbers and such. Get all the papers signed now so all you have to do later is make a call.

Being prepared is half the battle in my opinion.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:32 - ID#31868)
What mozel is true my friend. You can read some thoughts on this on - got to digest and click on MacAlvaney. I will double check to make sure, but there is some information in there that will make the hair stand up on the back of your neck.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:33 - ID#210235)
Just saying "hi", haven't been around a few days. Looks like this discussion group is still lively. TYoung, you get a medal for patience and adult behavior.

Think tomorrow will be a good day to buy some physical gold.

Sharefin, thanks for one of the best posts I've seen yet in this group. Yours on the BIS, of course. Very interesting. Be fun to watch the action as it unfolds.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:34 - ID#31868)
TYOUNG - my last post is correct, here is a taste
from the article.

6. SWITCH AT LEAST A PORTION OF YOUR PENSION/RETIREMENT ASSETS INTO GOLD COINS - As MIA has written in recent months- stocks. bonds and mutual funds in retirement portfolios are in grave danger if ( or when ) the economic earthquake hits. due to a growing potential for market implosion, and the government rewriting the pension rules or seizing ( or nationalizing ) of portions of pension assets in the midst of a political or financial crisis.

Pension assets in self-managed retirement plans can be legally placed in American Eagle gold coins, stored in a large trust depository in Delaware [ED. NOTE: This is the only exception to not personally holding your own gold coins] and retrieved within a week or two in a crisis if you decide to take possession, liquidate your IRA, and pay your taxes. In my opinion, this is the best insurance available to protect your retirement assets in a financial or governmental crisis.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:36 - ID#173274)
@the scene
PH in LA -- Sounds 'reasonable, doesn't it; 25% backing, etc. So what exactly does it mean. Only that 25% of the money is backed? That 25% of the people or cuurency MAY be exchanged for the real stuff? COMEON!!!! It really means that they will have SOME psuedo backing, for the 'good feels'. Unless FULL backing can be absolutely guaranteed, there is NO backing except/without debt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Screw the 'warm fuzzies'!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:39 - ID#210235)
Does this fellow who's been bugging you all night have anything to say about gold? Or is he just here to bug you? I've only read the past two days of posts, and haven't seen anything but "get Ted".

Well, looks like you've got big troubles and little ones. My prayers are with you on the big ones.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:40 - ID#197313)
Wizard of Oz,
What ?nobody checked it?worth the effort

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:42 - ID#242249)
( Ted I sincerely wish you all the best)
I hope your wife will be With you till YOU ..die and beyond bro..

All the best,


...fighting for the know ..of mine...

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:43 - ID#173274)
@the scene
I DO have to add one caveat to the last posting: 'Warm fuzzies' are relative! Take that as you will. I'm sure the rest of the world will!

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:44 - ID#31868)
Glad you are back, where in bloody hell is it on that site. I looked but could not find, but I am the idiot everybody sees at the grocery staring at the same shelf for twenty miinutes looking for something right in front of my face.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:45 - ID#93232)
I liquidated my 401k, paid the taxes and that was it. The way I figure it is....your social security benefits ( if there are any ) will be reduced in accordance with the size of your 401k post-retirement income, with a rationalization tied to "retribution for tax avoidance in previous periods".

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:46 - ID#234218)
Re@ Tolerant1/Mozel Options??????
In my case, the majority of my retirement is in a 401k thru my co. It can only be obtained through retirement or a loan in the amount of my contribution+it's earnings. Until recently it was in mutual funds. Now I have switched it to a Federally guaranteed ( HA ) money fund. I am not counting on seeing this money. I figure the Feds will end up with it unless I borrow the money and repay it at 7%, and reinvest it. Problem is, it could be a risky and costly move either way. Any thoughts????

PH in LA
(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:50 - ID#225408)
More of same question.
Thanks Eldo for the only answer ( so far ) to my question:

By now many of us have read the sharefin 1:54 and commented favorably. I call attention to a comment at the end of the piece:

" Another thought, the Japanese could acquire gold in a different way. They could sell our bonds and buy the EMU, the new European currency that the BIS is sponsoring to replace the dollar. The EMU is expected to be a package combination of gold and paper."

What is a package combo of gold and paper? How would this help the Japenese acquire gold? What is meant here?

John Disney__A
(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:51 - ID#24135)
I love separatism
For James et al
Thats what they said about Slovenia... and Croatia ... both
booming... Thats what the Yankees said about Virginia.
Funny how people like to run their own affairs... difficult
concept ... freedom. Funny how people are not very interested
in what OTHER people say is good for them.
If Texas secedes from the Union .. somebody please let me
know and Ill move there... unless the Cape Province secedes
from South Africa. Gold=Freedom .. Secession = Freedom
For Technical People
Gold/Siver Ratio has broken back ABOVE 46-47. Things could
have been worse.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:51 - ID#31868)
DO NOT BORROW!!! In that MacAlvaney article at golden-eagle in the digest section there is a phone number listed. Give them a call and see what they have to say.

I have nothing anywhere in retirement accounts, and have virtually zero knowledge in that area save to stay away from them. I am sure mozel or someone else here might be better able to provide some input and direction.

If I dig up somethings in my reading I shall post it if it looks solid.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:51 - ID#288155)
PH in LA--Partially backed by gold
Perhaps the best example is the Swiss Franc, which has a 40% gold backing. It acts as a 'partial brake' on the issuance of the paper; when the CB wants to create add'l money, they must have gold backing sufficient to maintain the ratio.

Not what folks like Mozel and I have in mind, but marginally better than nothing--at least in the hands of the prudent Swiss!

Bill El Zebub
(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:52 - ID#261352)
Thanks.Go gold.

Lurker 777
(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:55 - ID#317247)

Was it you that posted the site? This site has warped my brain for eternity. Even though my wife, friends, accountant and lawyer think I am nuts, I want to thank you for opening my eyes.

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:57 - ID#57232)
Signing off!
SDRer: Standard Chartered is one of those LBME banks, which you probably already know. Looks like China is getting closer to the brink with regard to devaluation. If Japan has made no real progress with fixing their banks, we have a potential world-wide financial time-bomb! I think the Chinese understand very well what might happen if they devalue at this point.

So many real or potential world problems, and the US markets go up anyway!

Bill El Zebub
(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:58 - ID#261352)
@ small caps are said to least dominated by Asian concerns...projected
by talking heads on CNBC to outperform in '98. Was it OLD GOLD
who said that was the last hurrah?

(Wed Feb 25 1998 23:59 - ID#288155)
Studio.R--401K thoughts...
Serendipity exists! Been mulling that problem over for the last week. Your decision sounds a very sensible one! Good luck to us both...