Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

PH in LA
(Fri Feb 27 1998 00:00 - ID#225408)
ANOTHER's copyright

Does that mean that the author must use his real name while claiming copyright? And/or while enforcing his copyright after a violation?

Also: Can we assume that ANOTHER has probably not been identified sufficiently by the publishers of the cited book of his THOUGHTS for them to have secured permission from him to publish?

( copyright 1998 ) PH in LA

(Fri Feb 27 1998 00:00 - ID#284255)
Email Chatter
It looks like there is serious concern amongst the G7 about the possible consequences for Asia should Japan slip into recession. Prodding, prompting, and pleading haven't worked, and so now they have resorted to verbal bullying to goad Japan into doing something to prevent this. Restructure, spend, deregulate, open their markets, cut taxes, anything. It doesn't look like Japan is having any of it. Europe and the US would like Japan to encourage consumer spending to help pull the rest of Asia out of the Quagmire. Japan says no way, Washington and Brussels say "your neighbor's house is on fire, and you are not doing your part to help put it out". Of what is the Japanese house made, disclosure is poor, noone really knows. Will it also catch fire and burn? On one hand they don't want the yen to be too weak but on the other, how are they going to compete with other Asian economies whose currencies have been devalued. Japan and Europe both remain exposed on Indonesian debt, but Europe is probably better able to deal with the blow than Japan is. I think the big question is, "What are the consequences should Japan slip into recession"? The concern of the G7 highlights the fact that events in Asia have yet to run their course. This is not over yet by any means.
Rubin ups the Stakes with Japan
'The world is about to enter a currency war...."; Japan Echo, Dec 97
Daily News
Japan's Economic Growth To Grind To Halt From 2006
Thailand To Overhaul Financial System To Jump-Start Economy
Japanese Autoparts Makers Rework Indonesian Plant Plans

(Fri Feb 27 1998 00:01 - ID#432361)
COMEX Stockpiles
Gold 480,910 + 40,568 troy ounces
Silver 89,561,087 - 1,306,517 troy ounces

(Fri Feb 27 1998 00:03 - ID#251134)
How do you read Lihirs performance today when most gold stocks are up?

Lurker 777
(Fri Feb 27 1998 00:06 - ID#317247)
Silver 89,561,087 - 1,306,517 troy ounces Yeeeeeeees! Thank you

(Fri Feb 27 1998 00:09 - ID#284255)
Tolerant - got your tickets
Camdessus to meet with US House banking committee

WASHINGTON, Feb 26 ( Reuters ) - IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus will hold a closed-door meeting with members of the House Banking Committee before its March 5 vote on IMF funding and reform legislation, the committee said on Thursday.

The background briefing, scheduled for March 4, will focus on the IMF's bailout packages in Asia and the IMF's funding needs. ``He'll be here to answer questions from members,'' a committee spokesman said.

The Banking Committee has scheduled a March 5 vote on IMF funding and reform legislation by committee chairman Rep. Jim Leach.

His bill would authorize Washington to boost IMF resources in exchange for assurances that IMF loan programs honor labor rights and promote environmental protection.

Camdessus met with members of the Senate Budget Committee on Feb. 5.

The Clinton administration has asked Congress to approve about $18 billion in additional funds for the IMF to replenish resources drained by multibillion-dollar bailouts for Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 00:11 - ID#284255)
Bye bye Soharto
Suharto exit seen key to Indonesia recovery
``The economy can't recover until the rupiah recovers, and the rupiah can't recover until there's confidence in government leadership,''
``That is not going to happen while Suharto remains president.''

(Fri Feb 27 1998 00:13 - ID#153102)
Of Fish and Frogs
What we use as money is akin to an aether of our physical and mental universes. We measure with it in the physical world. It is in our minds as information. We keep our bearings as to our daily labors and trades, whether they be upstream or downstream, by counting in units of the aether ? What the aether actually consists of is not important. That it be liquid so we can negotiate from pleasure to pleasure with it in pursuit of happiness is the sum of our concern.

Now if the lake expands and encroaches miles upon the shore, does the fish take notice ? Or if the water in the pot gradually increases unto boiling or decreases unto freezing, will the frog hop out ? No. It's an old experiment.

We depend entirely upon government and media, academic and commercial, for information on the size of the lake or the temperature of the water. We have our anecdotal suspicions at the gas pump, grocery store, and clothing store. But, set in opposition to our individual judgement are the official numbers and broadcast opinion. It is obvious official numbers and broadcast opinion can channel favorable attention at or away from "investment" choices. Is it any less obvious the perception of the mass mind can be managed regarding inflation ? So long as change is gradual enough or official numbers cannot be impeached from another source ? In macro financial matters, we are subjective inhabitants of a subjective universe.

Many have predicted the collapse of the debt currency system prematurely. Why were they wrong and what is different about the approaching storm ? In order to escape the last economic contraction of 1980, it appears to have been necessary to add four trillion dollars to the national debt. The economy and the debt rose together. Where did all the new money go ? Why wasn't there hyperinflation ? In 1939-45 and in 1983-, the money went into war goods or into space. There is no domestic competition to buy war goods or to go into space, so there is less price inflation than would be the case if the money actually went into the trading economy.

The numbers Spud posts on increase to the debt are, in my opinion, significant numbers. Bonds coming to the US Treasury from overseas add to the debt. Funds provided to insolvent banks add to the debt. At some point, debt crushes the carrier. Because interest must be paid. It must be paid at a rate that dupes lenders. Because, the whole point of inflation is to cheat the lender, to pay back in cheaper units than those that were borrowed. In the month of Febuary, the United States was $36 Billion short of borrowing strength. It did not sell $36 Billion of new bonds to anybody outside the system, so it borrowed from the Federal Reserve, its captive lender. People have been warning of the consequences of debt for years. But, nothing happened. So, now people like Y2000, the majority, have no fear of debt. It's a buggaboo. Or, it's water in the boat, but manageable amounts of water. Debt is always manageable under expected circumstances. It's the unexpected that sinks boats. And once the boat is under water, no amount of bailing will bring it to the surface.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 00:16 - ID#402127)
Good Evening Dave

It is most illogical to pay $29.95 for ANOTHER's collection of Kitco posts. Those posts are archived and part of the Public Record.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 00:21 - ID#284255)
AG and his wisdom
TEXT - Greenspan's speech on capital regulation
WASHINGTON, Feb 26 ( Reuters ) - The following is the full text of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's prepared speech before the Conference on Capital Regulation in the 21st Century on the role of capital in optimal banking supervision and regulation.
There really are only two questions here: First, how should bank
"soundness" be defined and measured? Second, what should be the minimum level of soundness set by regulators?
Capital standards risk becoming outdated-Greenspan
``The rapid technological, financial, and institutional changes...are rendering the regulatory capital framework less effectual, if not on the verge of becoming outmoded,''
``We must be concerned about becoming too complacent about evaluating repayment risks,''

(Fri Feb 27 1998 00:22 - ID#210235)
Can't use viewing options
Bart - Can't get past the current session to see the posts of the day. See you tomorrow.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 00:38 - ID#153102)
Something doesn't add up
Asia is dumped and IMF only needs $18 Billion ?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 00:40 - ID#210235)
Strange, after I looked at yesterday's posts I was able, once, to get today's earlier sessions. Now, again, it isn't working. BTW, since the big change a few weeks ago, the check boxes next to the time session are often missing until I click on the spot where they should be, then they appear, with the check inside. Nevertheless, it always worked when I checked the right spot, until tonight. Good luck with the programming glitches.

John Disney__A
(Fri Feb 27 1998 00:41 - ID#24135)
Will the real Bernatz please stand up
For RJ
You have no idea how much it pleases me that you found my
imitations of Bernatz de Ventadorm passably good. I liked
them too .. we have zat in common as well as our love for zee
game of leefting zee skairts.

John Disney__A
(Fri Feb 27 1998 00:43 - ID#24135)
Trust me on this ...
For RJ ...
Oh I forgot ... Hepcat is NOT the real Bernatz despite your
otherwise excellent theory

(Fri Feb 27 1998 00:51 - ID#429245)
Fish and Frogs...

The Canadian government just released a balanced budget. Interest rates have been low. Without low rates, the budget would not have looked so good. To protect the dollar, the Bank of Canada recently increased rates marginally.

The 'unexpected' you speak of could be higher interest rates.

In your opinion, what could force dramatically hiher interest rates in Canada and the USA, and what would the effect be? Inflation, of course, would do it. What else?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 00:52 - ID#255151)

Just read the Greenspan speech. Why doesn't he just come out and say things in plain English? In general, his speeches are about as vague as ANOTHER's posts. How about some transparency from the Federal Reserve Chairman, eh!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 00:55 - ID#20137)
(wait BUT lok at the elligible STOCKS!)

296,524 27,156 0 29,156 24,923 350,603
143,818 11,412 0 11,412 -24,923 130,307
440,342 40,568 0 40,568 0 480,910

Gold elligible on 2-24-98 was 143,818 ounces ( sorry I don't have it for 2-25-98 ) . Looking good.


-1,011,861 5,401,911 36,414,124
-294,656 -5,401,911 53,146,963
-1,306,517 0 89,561,087

Silver elligible dropped 5,401,911 WOOOOOOOOOOW!!!!!!

Am I reading this worng or something...pinch me, maybe I am dreaming.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 00:56 - ID#20137)
Sorry for all the mispellings but I got excited...
someone check me.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 01:10 - ID#20137)
Did I say something wrong???
Did everyone leave? Hello. Hello.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 01:13 - ID#244207)
nome de plumes
'Fess up, JFD, you were the real Bernatz, weren't you?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 01:14 - ID#429245)
A. Goose-- Have you been keeping track of COMEX silver drawdowns vs WB March 6 requirments?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 01:18 - ID#255284)
Taking the pulses---option "G" on Mac ----
A. Goose


Most interesting noone took up my bearish wager. means possibly
1 ) noone read it
2 ) noone cared
3 ) noone believes gold will not drop further.
4 ) noone wants 1/2oz Golden kiwi 9999
5 ) noone want to deprive me of ( .4 ) ... Thanx all.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 01:18 - ID#255284)
Taking the pulses
A. Goose


Most interesting noone took up my bearish wager. means possibly
1 ) Noone read it
2 ) Noone cared
3 ) Noone believes gold will not drop further.
4 ) Noone wants 1/2oz Golden kiwi 9999
5 ) Noone want to deprive me of ( 4 ) ... Thanx all.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 01:19 - ID#20137)
Date: Fri Feb 27 1998 01:14
GW ( Silver ) ID#429245:

I have been keeping track of silver and gold since 2-2-98. Arden pointed out ages ago that games went on in comex concerns totals ( registered vs elligible ) . When I checked tonight I got excited. Wish Arden, Silverbaron, or Realistic were around I think they have been tracking comex longer. BUT, I think the numbers tonight were significant. Just would like to have someone check and verify...

Thanks for responding.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 01:20 - ID#255151)
Big Bets

aurator--G'day, What is the wager?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 01:25 - ID#20137)
Date: Fri Feb 27 1998 01:18
aurator ( Taking the pulses---option "G" on Mac ---- ) ID#255284:

I think it is easy to say that the bb is definitely spooked as far as the direction of gold and silver. They have seen it all and it normaly works against them. I KNOW no one ignores you ( so they definitely read your note ) so they probably have gambled enough just investing in pm's.

time to turn in -- to dream of the dropping elligible silver and elligible stocks. gonight.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 01:33 - ID#429245)
Silver stocks
A. Goose-- I am not exactly sure how to read those tables, but if you take Part 1 ( COMEX Warehouse stocks ) as the start point, and Part 2 as the end point, your conclusion looks right to me.

I asked if you were keeping track of the drawdowns because I want to know if they are coming close to his required 42,000,000 oz by March 6. ( from the date of his announcement ) . Do you know?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 01:40 - ID#255284)
Here we are, the post contains several references to Alice in Wonderland, where *real metal* enthusiasts are being played like chess pieces:

"Off with his head" said the queen of hearts.

Away to find me a catapillar, sitting on a mushroom ( Amanita Muscuria ) ( poss. aka soma ) smoking a funny little pipe

(Fri Feb 27 1998 01:49 - ID#243180)
BACKGROUND: I've been in PMs and numismatics for a long time. Some of my purchases were at the 1989 highs and I buy some of the same pieces today in an effort to dollar-cost-average my investment and to help myself feel better about my relatively high purchase prices as they relate to current value. I have been fortunate enough to have never sold a single coin. I hope that I won't ever be forced to. My strategies are similar to those who maintain wealth and not squander it in 1 or 2 generations. One must study the perpetuation of LONG MONEY to truly understand what wealth is. It is not easy. It is sacrifice, drive, luck, selfishness, unselfishness, and b_lls of steel. I translate this to mean that I wish not to benefit from my insight. My children are slowly being taught a similar fate - I hope that they will teach my grandchildren. Why ? LONG MONEY says it must be so for it to last generations. The lode you sew today will pass through the veins of your geneological descendants as if the alchemists dreams were fulfilled. It will come to fruition by your careful planning.

We are in a great time, in that, the spread between fiat and PMs are quite small AND it is still legal to purchase Au/Ag from the country of your choice. This is a buyers market. While Rome is burning around us and the 'big-boys' are working their strategies we can increase our wealth through purchases of PMs. The fields are ready and the harvest is about to begin.

CONJECTURE: It seems as though we wish to achieve the lofty levels of gold as they were in 1980. If we examine the POG and numismatic data for period 1980 and 1989, respectively, it is these levels that we ( at this forum ) have hopes of accomplishing with LONG-TERM SUSTAINED LEVELS and beyond. Looking at the spike for bullion in 1980 provides the goal for which we shoot. Numismatists constantly remind us of how "this coin" or "that coin" is currently priced in relation to its 1989 high. With these models serving as our motivation we look to every $1 move in Au and $0.40 move in Ag as a 'new sign' of bullish/bearish conditions in PMs and how fiat and DOW is on its final leg. Are we not micromanaging our own desires that are unrealistic. History is NOT there to maintain those levels while fiat is still trading. Shall we not view our desires with more statistical retrospect in an effort to diminish the emptiness that some on this forum have expressed recently ? Are we not selfishly awaiting the demise of fiat and those associated with it so that we can say 'I told ya so' ?. We know the truth and preaching to the choir only helps fuel more frustration when day-after-day the painful process continues again and again. This is a long term philosophy and someone recently said a "once-in-a-lifetime-event" that WILL ARRIVE. Unless you are ready to retire soon, let's take advantage of the current SALE in PMs and increase our WEALTH so that 'in-our-time' the rewards will be much sweeter than we could ever imagine. Some of our Kitco brothers and sisters are straying. Someone mentioned earlier that we are a family here. We must treat each other as such. Surely we all have that crazy uncle and disgusting second cousin that have views that "are wrong" BUT we cannot divorce them. They are so-n-so's husband or wife and they are not going away. We pro-PM'ers are a small minority and we need to stick together while positioning the mission in the forefront of our minds. It is easy since we know the truths and understand the history of the financial legerdemain.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 01:49 - ID#255151)

Think I got it. Are you saying Gold will get to US$ 272 on or before July 01, 1998? I'll take that. I bet it won't get that low. What are the stakes? May I suggest a steak dinner at the Outback Steakhouse? "No Rules, just right."--Rachel Hunter

(Fri Feb 27 1998 01:55 - ID#153102)
Canada may be vulnerable to currency attack. Higher interest rates are the defense.
If the yen rises against the dollar, higher interest rates will at some point be necessary to keep the yen carry. The alternative, of course, is more debt.

I'm not sure interest rates will be the origin of the unexpected. Some consequence of world currency devaluation to compete for those critical US$, some financial domino sequence that can't be filled with liquidity fast enough, some unexpected price change in oil, loss of confidence due to longer and lower stock market decline. It's probably under our noses and predictable in hindsight, but not obvious to me at this point. There is a particular vulnerability though in all the major economies going into recession at once. I think that is why Washington is so perturbed at Japan.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 02:03 - ID#20137)
Date: Fri Feb 27 1998 01:33
GW ( Silver stocks ) ID#429245:

No I don't know. I am not sure we could tell since he said he would allow some deliveries to be postponed for a interest fee.

I do know that elligible stocks have dropped dramaticly and that at some point the shorts are going to have to pay the piper.


Quixotic 1
(Fri Feb 27 1998 02:03 - ID#48200)
WetGold...Well said
The toothpicks in the eyes are starting to protrude to lids...time to go.

Good nite.

Gold for the good guys...GMJ

(Fri Feb 27 1998 02:10 - ID#252150)
Thanks to the lightweight content of recent Kitco postings I was able
to go thru 18 hrs in 20 mins.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 02:11 - ID#153102)
Some are traders; some are accumulators. If $ actually started competing for AU, the price would go way, way beyond the 1980 levels.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 02:13 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Checked in this AM with the Virtual Trading Floor at
Both the XAU and the HUI showed a breakout.
Scaled Up and finished with a nice profit, hope
you did also.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 02:14 - ID#255284)
steak sounds nice...
Not quite. I am wagering that the gold low is not in and that there will be a new low spot before june 30 1998. That new low will be closer to 272 than to 280, but there will be a new low anyway.

In that post it was 1/2 oz Mape. Getting no replies I thought I'd "up" the steaks ( sic ) to 1/2 oz Gold Kiwi 9999 to your 1/2 oz Gold Maple.

BTW what you doing quoting local girl, Rachel Hunter on kitco? Supermodel, Rod Stewart's wife, feet firmly planted on the ground.

There's no women like kiwi women
no women I know....

(Fri Feb 27 1998 02:15 - ID#22882)

Finally getting around to blaming it on El Nino.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 02:24 - ID#153102)
The push down in price two days ago followed by striking large drawdowns on stocks is an interesting series of developments to say the least. I wonder if anybody ever actually does inventory at all.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 02:31 - ID#393224)
G'day Aussie
I have given up trying to figure Lihir out. They always do the opposite of what I expect. I have given up on them for now, but at lower prices would be very interested. I have posted this before--but, I am like a kid in a candy shop with these Aussie Au/Ag shares. So delicious and so undervalued.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 02:33 - ID#28585)
IMHO the odds favor that the Almighty Dow will collapse for the same reasons it collapsed back in the late Sixties. In fact, many market analysts have pointed out the uncanny resemblance to the patterns of this stock market bull to the Sixties bull.

Massive fraud in Bernie Cornfeld's IOS ( at that time, the largest mutual fund in America ) shattered the fantasies of the masses, who had been led by the hallowed prophet Bernie to believe that they could all become millionaires. When Robert Vesco skipped away with all the loot, the IOS debacle triggered the stock market crash of the Sixties.

Whenever a major bull-mania takes place, due diligence goes out the window. If a financial manager made you a cumulative return of 300% over a five year period, are you going to question him when he phones you up and tells you to move all your money into the Malarky Fund? Are you going to dare question his judgement when he tells you to stick most of your money in Ponzi Inc.? Probably will most likely regard him as an apostle of the Holy Dow and deliver yourself into his hands with unblinking faith.

Although most of the major mutual funds insure their investments to a certain degree, would the insuring entity be able to come up with the monies if the fraud were on the massive scale of a Fidelity or a Templeton? Would the insuring entity itself collapse under the weight of such a huge fraud and provoke a domino effect of further financial melt-downs?

One thing is certain: the average investor today is so complacent and so unflappable, the only phenonomenon that will truly panic him is something first-hand...something truly experiential...for example, a situation where he wakes up one day and is informed that all the profits he made the past several years have been stolen from him...they simply are not there.

After all, Asia is a remote, intangible phenomenon...most Americans would have trouble naming two countries in Asia, let alone comprehending the effects of Asian economic collapse upon America. Inflation statistics, unemployment reports, Y2K, Iraqui war, blow jobs in the White House...the whole litany of eco-socio-politico-sexual bogeymen are simply too abstract in their conceptualization to scare most Americans...ultimately, the only thing that will really scare them is something dramatic and tangible in their own backyard.

In such a panic scenario, all investments ( such as PM's ) previously disdained and scorned by the various mutual fund managers would become highly desirable is analogous to the inevitable rebellion of "children" who, discovering that their parents lied or betrayed them, immediately indulge in all activities once forbidden and prohibited.

Just as Judas betrayed Jesus, you can well expect that some notable financial hero or revered money-making institution will prove to be deceptive and corrupt and betray the Holy Dow. Count on it.

P.S. My apologies again to those offended by my New Testament metaphors...they just seem so vividly appropriate.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 02:51 - ID#413109)
LGB you refer to an article in the NY Times about Saddam, please email
the details. Thanks.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 02:56 - ID#153102)
The potential is definitely there. But, it could just as well be a mututal fund going belly up from a bad derivatives contract. Then a rush of redemptions. If one fundmanager heads for the Dow exit door, there could be a stampede. Would be is more likely. Then today's unprecedently high personal debt would start to exert more drag than it does already. You can only borrow your way to so much prosperity.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 03:11 - ID#431263)
Guten Tag Nick@C!

Could you expand a little bit on Lihir? Don't quite follow your post of a few minutes ago. What is Lihir doing that concerns you? As you already know, I'm heavily into this stock via VENGOLD ( Vengf ) and am extremely interested in any and all information you Aussies can provide! All my research on Lihir only causes me to want more! All we need is a higher gold price! Eh mate? Viele Dank und wiedersehen mein Freund! Ich konne nicht schlafen!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 03:27 - ID#153102)
Unscientific Observations on Silver
Volume is high.
Open Interest is higher than a week ago.
The slope of the latest run up is several degrees steeper than in any recent period run up.
IMVHO it would be easy to underestimate the next run up. $9,
even $10 does not seem impossibly improbable.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 03:28 - ID#393224)
Golden Cheesehead
G'day. I was asked what I thought of Lihir. Today, eg, they were down 5 cents to $1.70 while most other majors went up slightly on heavy volume. I think Lihir is a GREAT long-term buy. I believe they are only about 40% forward sold and are producing ahead of schedule and under budget. You would probably know better. I have traded them short-term and they are one son-of-gun to figure out. I believe they will double in price in the next year or two along with Normandy, Resolute, Delta, Acacia etc. Many of the littlies will quadruple +!! I am concentrating on silver shares at the moment as I love jumping on to bandwagons!! Just love that silver music right now.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 03:29 - ID#220272)
movin' up
GOLD 296.20 x 296.70 +2.00

(Fri Feb 27 1998 03:30 - ID#286234)
You are apparently the only poster here who spells [definitely] correctly. You deserve a gold metal medal.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 03:33 - ID#316193)

(Fri Feb 27 1998 03:34 - ID#393224)
Auracious@272 Bear Street
Go to your room immediately. No dinner for you tonight!!!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 03:48 - ID#393224)
I will bet you the 7000 tonnes of gold I bought from you that the POG does not go to 272 by July 1st.

Bill Buckler
(Fri Feb 27 1998 03:52 - ID#256381)
Gold and 20 week MA - The Privateer
I figure that if the Gold price rise presently holding in Asia and Europe carries over into U.S. trading, then gold has a chance to finish the week very close to or even above its 20 week MA on the weekly chart

Last Friday, there was only a $2.10 difference between the two. This

Friday ( unless Gold gets up to about $322 in the US on Friday ) , the 20-week MA is going to be below $300 for the first time since 1979

That's a 20-week MA on a weekly semi-log bar chart, BTW.

As many of you will know, I follow this MA very closely at my website.

I have a page on Gold bottoms since 1976 which shows that the best confirmation that an apparent Gold bottom has legs is a breach of this very same MA. Since early 1996 when Gold broke below it, the MA has been challenged six times unsuccessfully, If Gold goes up from here, this will be number seven. But unless the price changes dramatically in the next 24 hours, this time, Gold is going to be able to break the MA WITHOUT going above $300.

Next week could well be VERY interesting!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 03:54 - ID#153102)
@sam It took special effort. This posting stuff is harder than it looks.
For example, I know I'm going to regret that last one. BBL.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 03:58 - ID#266105)

mozel, I never knew you had a sense of humor.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 04:17 - ID#255284)

noone has yet tried to estimate the volume of 7000 tonnes of Au. I mean, what is table-top proof?

Would it look a little too flash around my neck?


(Fri Feb 27 1998 04:25 - ID#266105)
@no regrets


(Fri Feb 27 1998 04:33 - ID#316193)
"The Money Machine Flash Page", Good Predictions...

(Fri Feb 27 1998 04:34 - ID#358318)
aurator 4:17
7000 Tonnes of Au at 19.32 g/cm^3 density;
7E9 grammes / 19.32 g/cm^3 = 3.623E8 cm^3
= 362 m^3
Equivalent to a cube measuring 7.129 metres on each side.
Use a reinforced floor.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 04:39 - ID#39845)
does anyone agree
my call of 10-20% move in POG before March 13, of last week,
is looking on the cards. And when I get confirmation via the
guru B Buckler, well my brain cells just crave annoitment.
Anyone want to add anything re the strong posibility of gold
punching through $340 within 2 weeks?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 04:45 - ID#266105)

Hey Trinovant y'know what would be cool. If the stuff
ever hits a thousand or bazillion to/for about the time
Ted's ready to raise walls fly out. Gotta be a nice spot.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 04:49 - ID#39845)
Golden Cheesehead re Lihir
I thought Lihir performed well this week bouncing of a $1.67 low
and closing 3 cents above that low when gold was moving down.
Monday on the ASX should pull this stock back to $1.75-78 region.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 04:50 - ID#393224)
You are quick!!
Thankyou Trinomathematician. Saved me a lot of time.

Now, Auracuious. I shall send you the 7.129 meter wide cube of gold--but only if the POG goes to 272 before July 1st. It should fit nicely into your L-shaped house. I would also like an appropriate reward if YOU lose the bet. How about the North Island!!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 04:59 - ID#255284)
Thank you sir.

North Island is worth a lot less at moment, Caniballi, Auckland CB, is still getting only 10% of power needs. Law firms and import agencies etc etc huddling into family homes, warehouses and garages...wherever there's power... hmmm a city in need of a holiday...two of sails

I shall return.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 05:06 - ID#316193)
Bookmark For Daily News On Banking ...

(Fri Feb 27 1998 05:06 - ID#39845)
I'll have a kick
Friday 27 February, 1998 ( 4:10pm AEDT )

Asia's troubled currencies have extended their gains against
the U-S dollar

The Singapore dollar has led the recovery, amid expectations
that the government will unveil a pro-business budget.
The Singapore dollar surged to 1-point-6 against the
greenback ahead of today's budget, which Prime Minister
Goh Chok Tong says should post a surplus

In Malaysia, the ringgit rose to three-point-6800 against the
dollar, following government announcements of changes to
key investment policies

In other regional currencies,the Indonesian rupiah, the
Philippine peso, the Taiwan follaw and the South Korean
won all rose while the Thai baht dipped slightly to
42-point-94 against the dollar.

Return to the World News Menu

plus from the Asia Pacific Region in Indonesian, Chinese and Tok Pisin

 1998 Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Fri Feb 27 16:30:00 1998 ( AEDT )

AEDT = Australian Eastern Daylight Time which is 11 hours ahead of UTC ( Greenwich Mean Time )

(Fri Feb 27 1998 05:15 - ID#255151)
Speaking of Home Boys...

aurator--Is Peter Snell still around? I remember watching him in the 1964 Olympics. The best runner of that era.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 05:19 - ID#316193)
Free Financial Facts Weekly..

(Fri Feb 27 1998 05:24 - ID#393224)
ebn gold 296.50
silver 6.35

Bill Buckler--G'day mate. Always enjoy your site. Didn't gold penetrate the 200 day MA and fall back through a while back? How much of a move through the average do we need to confirm the change of trend?

Auraculouse--OK--South Island. I like to see where I'm going at night anyway.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 05:28 - ID#288295)
COMEX stock breakdown
Gold:350,603 Registered130,307 Elligible480,910 Total net chg + 40568Note: Elligible stocks DROPPED MORE THAN 10K!Silver:36,414,124 Registered53,146,963 Elligible89,561,087 Total net chg - 1,306,517Note: Elligible stocks DROPPED MORE THAN 5 MM !!! WOW!Hope this is legible - my ISP han compressing posts lately

(Fri Feb 27 1998 05:43 - ID#238295)
Hedgehog: Hope you are right. But I'll be happy if POG decisively penetrates $300 or even the now below $300 20 week MA. I think we will see one of the latter broken very shortly.

Bill Buckler
(Fri Feb 27 1998 05:54 - ID#256381)
Gold 200 day MA vs 20 week (100 day) MA
G'day Nick! Nope, Gold hasn't broken above its 200 day MA in about 2 years. It did break the 20 week ( 100 day ) MA back in October. Remember, Gold got up near $US 340. That only lasted a week though.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 05:55 - ID#255151)

Reread your wager. Okay, closer to $272 than $280 as a bottom by June 30, 1998. I'll put a half ounce Maple Leaf on that. The winner gets to choose where the half ounce of Gold goes, eh?

Mike Sheller
(Fri Feb 27 1998 05:57 - ID#347447)
I have received several emails about my "Pennies from Heaven" feature pick of Cornucopia Resources at .25 a week ago ( at the Gold ( you'll pardon the expression Bart, Eagle website ) , and the explosion of the stock yesterday. People naturally want to know if this is a buy now, or should one await a "pullback". Always a good question . As a Vietnam vet, I know that setting up the ambush is one thing, but once all hell breaks loose, its hard to say what will happen. I saw CNPGF, like the other "Pennies from Heaven," as a play extending over the year. I look for a few hundred percent potential in these very low-priced shares , which is why I am always on the lookout for such companies with exciting astrological configurations about to be set off. So I would say that this burst of activity is hopefully a portent of things to come. This stock has been over a dollar, and as high as $3, before. No reason why in a better gold market it can't get up there again. In a moderate bull market in gold, with bullion over $400, you'll surely see $3 here at some point. That would be roughly TEN TIMES your money at my .25 buy price at the time of my post ( It's only fair to judge me at the time & price at which I make the public observation ) . So this is a nice leveraged play on gold if you believe big yellow will come back to around $400 in a year or so. Gold rises 35%, CNPGF rises 1000%. Nice option, I'd say. Maybe now you're cut to 500-700% with the price pop in CNPGF. Ahh, time IS of the essence in our mortal lives, is it not?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 06:09 - ID#255151)
aurator, Mike Sheller

aurator--last post should have said, "I reread your wager." ( didn't mean it to sound like I was ordering you to reread it! ) Mike--Nice call!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 06:22 - ID#257148)
golden brews

Absoludle. Your 0:55. Okee dokee.

You were earlier talking of home brew, there's a brewski heading your way, I hope noone will mind if I repeat a marvelously anarchistic, freedom loving dedication from the book that got me started home brewing...The art of brewing perhaps ought to be amongst the gold bug's treasures that neither moth nor cannibals can eat....

I started brewing with a mate, we had noone to teach us, we dared each other, we read a book which fortunately was absolutely brilliant. "The Brewer's Bible" written by a local hippie/beero calling himself Malcolm
Gramophone. I've had some stout and ale he made himself once years later just beeeautiful. I've just found the book again, The dedication reads:

"To the beer barrons, who, having watered down and artificially coloured
the beer are now initiating the same procedure in the vineyards they
control. May they all die from cirrhosis of the liver...."

supping a glayva, wondering which charity I's gonna get aric to send a 1/2 mape to....

(Fri Feb 27 1998 06:30 - ID#255151)

gold-brew golden-brew

(Fri Feb 27 1998 06:40 - ID#238295)
loaded for bear
April gold up $2.00 and JSE up 3.5%. Does like like a good day for KITCOITES ( with the exception of EB ) If the 20 week MA is desicively broken as now seems probable, this golden bear may finally be dead and buried.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 06:58 - ID#351224)
auric and the beer
Before we start - go gold -
Cooper's Sparkling Ale ( Red label ) is brewed here in Adelaide. Still owned by the original family. One of life's simple pleasure's has been sitting in the boardroom with Bill and Glen Cooper and partaking of this gorgeous brew. They make a fantastic home brew kit too.
Local price OZ$ 3.75 for a 750 ml bottle. In fact, got one on the go right now ( 10.30 pm Fri night )
Will find out where in Indianapolis you can get some - cheers for now!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 07:11 - ID#31876)
Donald, Can You Add Some More Details?? (D-Day For Euro)

(Fri Feb 27 1998 07:13 - ID#410114)
london gold
london gold up $4.00

(Fri Feb 27 1998 07:20 - ID#351224)
Gold demand at record level
Yahoo! News Business Headlines

Thursday February 26 7:03 AM EST
Gold Demand at Record Level
By Clive McKeef

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - The economic meltdown in Asia failed to dent global demand for gold in the fourth quarter, as consumption jumped to a record high last year, the World Gold Council said.

The Geneva-based association of gold producers and marketers said in its latest survey that demand rose 5 percent to 753.5 metric tons in the fourth quarter, boosting world consumption in 1997 by 9 percent to a record 2,935.5 tons.

"A huge surge in Indian demand offset disinvestment in some East Asian countries, while a recovery in investment demand and solid jewelry demand growth were the highlights of the year," Richard Scott-Ram, economic advisor to the WGC, said.

Indian demand has been driven by the liberalization of the nation's market and a lowering of the Indian rupee price of gold, Scott-Ram said.

From January 1997, non-resident Indians were permitted to import 10 kilograms of gold every six months, twice the previous amount.

Beginning in October 1997, India allowed authorized agencies to import gold under "Open General License," meaning that 11 agencies could import gold without limitation on quantity and sell it to the local market for rupees after payment of a 5 percent import duty.

By contrast South East Asian gold demand slumped to 22.3 tons in the fourth quarter, the lowest quarter on record, while demand for the region for the 1997 year fell 26 percent to 335.4 tons, as East Asia's economic crisis forced distressed sales.

In Thailand, disinvestment of almost 30 tons took place in the second half of the year, leading to a 71 percent drop in annual demand to 31 tons.

In Indonesia, disinvestment amounted to about two tons in the fourth quarter, resulting in a 28 percent drop in annual demand to 92.5 tons.

In South Korea fourth-quarter demand fell 41 percent to 19.9 tons, while annual demand fell just 9 percent to 114.4 tons.

"Sharp depreciation of the Thai baht, the Indonesian rupiah and the Korean won against the U.S. dollar resulted in significantly higher gold prices in local currency terms," Scott-Ram noted.

"The fact that consumers were able to convert their gold back into cash quickly highlighted again gold's traditional role as a store of value and asset of last resort in such countries," he said.

The Indonesian rupiah price of gold was up 80 percent in the fourth quarter vs. the same period in 1996, while the Thai baht price was up 60 percent for the same period.

In Japan gold demand remained weak, falling 17 percent in the fourth quarter to 28.5 tons and was down 23 percent for the year at 130.4 tons.

In developed countries gold demand showed an upturn in the fourth quarter 1997 of 8 percent to 262.2 tons, leading to a 1 percent rise for the year to 806.3 tons.

Investment demand for coins jumped 104 percent in the fourth quarter in developed countries to 38 tons, and was up 32 percent for the year.

In Germany coin demand jumped 93 percent in the fourth quarter to 10.3 tons, compared to fourth-quarter 1996, while in the U.S. coin demand jumped 254 percent to 14.5 tons in the fourth quarter.

Developed country jewelry demand rose 1 percent in the fourth quarter to 208.5 tons, but was down 3 percent for the year.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 07:22 - ID#289357)
Bill El Zebub @ DROOY

Sorry I missed your question last evening about DROOY. I expected about a 50% retracement of the previous move from 1 1/2 to the high, which would have put a buy point between 2 and 2 1/2. Looks like the 50 day moving avg is at about 2 1/8 or 2 3/16, which should give good support, and as someone else noted, the previous gap up was not filled.

I also watch the price-volume trend ( as a measure of how much money is moving in and out of the shares ) which has not confirmed the price pullback from the sharp spike up a couple of weeks ago. I'm buying this puppy here.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 07:32 - ID#31876)
El Nino Dramatic Weather News From California

(Fri Feb 27 1998 07:32 - ID#410114)
london gold
london gold is now up $3.70

(Fri Feb 27 1998 07:40 - ID#255151)

You are a Gentleman and a Gold Bug!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 07:45 - ID#351224)
A Gift in lieu of cash
_ Beijing, in its most serious commitment yet to banking reforms, is to
issue special treasury bonds to four state-owned banks this year to
help them to recapitalise.
The State Council has submitted a motion to the National People's
Congress Standing Committee seeking permission for the Ministry of
Finance to issue the debt securities to supplement the banks' capital
bases. Official media said the committee, in a meeting on Monday, had recommended that the motion be reviewed at the next parliamentary
session due to convene later this week.
"The bonds will definitely be issued this year," a finance ministry
official said yesterday. He declined to elaborate.
Analysts said the bond issue marked a capital injection by the
government to strengthen the banks' capital bases, giving them greater
leeway to increase the provisions for non-performing loans in their books.
"It looks like the bonds are a gift in lieu of cash from the
government for improving the capital bases of the banking giants,"
Hoong Yik Luen, ING Barings Shanghai chief representative, said.
Analysts speculated that zero-coupon bonds would be issued in tranches
to the banks, with the finance ministry redeeming them with central
government revenue over several years.
The four state banks - Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China,
China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China -
are woefully under-capitalised.
Foreign rating agencies have estimated their capital bases to be about
4-5 per cent of net loans, whereas the Bank for International
Settlements ( BIS ) - the Basle-based bank for central banks - has set a
minimum capital-adequacy ratio of 8 per cent for banks.
"The move suggests Beijing is painfully aware how fragile its banking
system is and, to its credit, is taking a pro-active approach to stave
off the kind of financial crisis gripping its neighbours," a foreign
banker said.
Mr Hoong said: "It looks like they are dead serious in accelerating
bank reforms."
People's Bank of China governor Dai Xianglong said last month the four
leading banks should reach the BIS ratio by the end of next year.
To reach this target, the banks would need to write off more than 50
billion yuan ( about HK$46.5 billion ) of bad debts this year and up to
70 billion in the next two years.
For years, the banks have acted as cashiers for the government by
giving out unprofitable policy loans, which should have been financed
out of the fiscal budget.
The size of bad loans is a matter of controversy, since the balance
sheets of the four banks are not made public.
Foreign rating agencies have put the size of the mainland's
non-performing loans at one trillion yuan, or about 25 per cent of
total loans, or about 14 per cent of gross domestic product.
Mr Dai said this figure was exaggerated, saying the genuine bad loans
to be written off formed 5 or 6 per cent of total loans.
To further help repair the banks' balance sheets, the central bank has
widened the interest rate spread to improve bank margins.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:01 - ID#351224)
Bargain rents in HK!
. Agents said the number of expatriates arriving in town had dropped off since the regional economic turmoil began affecting Hong Kong,
depriving the leasing market of foreign big spenders.
"Many American firms are laying people off and fewer of their
employees are coming to Hong Kong," Yvonne Chan Yee-hung, associate
residential director with Chesterton Petty, said.
In addition, economic turmoil in Asia had cut into Hong Kong's
competitiveness, also reducing new arrivals, they said.
"Our edge in the region has gone and companies are going to be more
selective in sending people to Hong Kong," one property agent said.
At the same time, the availability of luxury accommodation is
abundant, with Ms Bekink describing the supply as "enormous".
Many owners who bought luxury property last year during more
prosperous times realised it could be a long time before they found
buyers for their property, agents said.
These factors combined to slow leasing activity on The Peak where
rents in the luxury enclave had fallen by about 15 per cent, they said.
A 3,000 square foot house in Watford Villa on The Peak was recently
let for $115,000 per month.
Last year, the house leased for $140,000 per month, according to one agent.
One landlord who is asking $250,000 per month for a house on Mount
Kellett Road will be lucky to get $180,000 per month, according to
another agent familiar with the property.
However, some rents on the south side of Hong Kong Island were holding
up slightly better, they said.
"It is an attractive place to live and it's a favourite with American
expatriates who have higher budgets," Ms Bekink said.
According to Ms Bekink, houses in high quality developments can still
command decent rents.
In Mid-Levels, an average-sized flat in Tregunter Tower which had been
leasing for $90,000 per month has been let for $70,000 per month.
Property agents do not see any stability in luxury rents for at least
the next couple of months.
Fizzy Pavri, residential agency director with Colliers Jardine, said
rents could fall another 10 per cent before June when they would
bottom out.
"Things are going to get worse before they get better," she said

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:08 - ID#185448)
The EMU has been a political decision of huge dimensions in favour of the european community in general. You can see value any political decision by its actual effects but also by its character as a sign to the population/world/whoever. Thus, as an european, I am not surprised that all designated participants "now" have met the Maastricht-criteria. In a political sense, they surely did. The necessary cut in public spending was done by all ( Take a look at the unemployment rates ) . Economy now runs a strategy of spending-cuts also. But most of the participants used more or less dirty tricks to meet Maastricht-criteria. You had to pay income-tax in advance for the next year, the possibility of losses brought forward ( is this the right expression?? ) was halted for some years - just to name some. But my personal favourite was this one: Maastricht-treaty allows an estimated percentage to be added to the GDP. The name of this position: The value of Illicit work ( ! ) . As far as I remember Italy added approx. 20% to the GNP...
In short: The national figures are diluted by several factors that only have an effect for one time, with the purpose just to get into the EMU from the beginning. Once in it, I bet my ass that public spending will increase again. It has to, as the political pressure from the street becomes bigger ( Protests of Unions and or unemployed have been seen in Germany and France - in Belgium unemployed tried to occupy the stock-exchance some weeks ago - anyone noticed? ) .

Off the screen for weekend purposes till monday. Luck to all of you.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:10 - ID#26793)
In South Korea: production tumbles, unemployment soars

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:13 - ID#26793)
Can you believe deflation in Brazil? It's true. Here are the stats.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:18 - ID#351224)
Is this true?
BBC World service ( radio ) just reported that head of China central Bank has been given the flick in a "restructuring"! Any confirmations?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:20 - ID#26793)
Asian crisis seriously hurting Japanese auto manufacturers.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:21 - ID#280215)
Bill Buckler - 3:52 post
Could you verify the final portion of the last sentence in that post. I believe it went.... Gold is going to be able to break the MA WITHOUT going above $300. Did you actually mean Gold is NOT going to be able to break the MA WITHOUT going above $300.

I apologize if I'm a little confused. It's too early for me ( went out with some college buddies till late ) . What is your basic premise? Is it that unless gold penetrates the 20 week MA to the upside, we are heading back down?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:24 - ID#26793)
@Miles: Big job shuffle underway in China

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:25 - ID#351224)
Don't tell the Turks
OMSK, Russia, Feb 26 ( Interfax ) - The Transportation Engineering Plant in Omsk will supply a large consignment of military armored vehicles to Cyprus within the bounds of a $120-million contract. The West Siberian regional center of Inkombank has opened a $20-million credit line for the financing of the export deal, Chairman of the Omsk region's legislature Vladimir Varnavsky told Interfax. The plant has not received a government order for the second half of the 1990s, he said. However, the company continues to operate in a stable way thanks to export contracts arranged by the Rosvooruzhenie state arms exporter, Varnavsky said. In April representatives of the Transportation Engineering Plant and the regional administration will meet with Greek experts dealing with the purchase of military equipment for the national armed forces, he said.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:28 - ID#26793)
China expected to shed 4 million government jobs.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:29 - ID#197313)
April Gold up 4 dollars plus,
acording to my quote line ( brokers ) ,watch how fast it goes!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:29 - ID#411149)
Looks like we are jest fixin to go back over $300, April gold
UP $4.20. DAMN!!

Tally Ho

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:33 - ID#351224)
(@Donald - They are so jolly inscrutable!)
The plenum said the reform was ``needed to deepen economic reform, bring the party closer to the people and develop a socialist market economy

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:41 - ID#258427)
Bart....Kitco prices in frames version
is stuck again...and we have movement today...Sure would like to get the frames version prices updating go silver, SSC and gold!!! moaning TED...

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:46 - ID#258427)
Even EBN is stuck, or maybe
the world is stuck..."there is no gravity...the world suks" .. or stucks..futures do look to be moving up...up and away!!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:49 - ID#197314)
GC J8 ?,
last I got on my brokers hot line was 298.90,10 minutes
ago it was 300.70 ? the automated quote line has been
unreliable in the past,go gold !

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:49 - ID#351224)
More China news
Fewer and fewer state enterprises are
able to foot their tax bills as economic reforms make it harder for
them to raise money, official reports said Thursday.
 The expansion of China's tax collection efforts suffered as a
result, with the annual growth rate of tax collection in January
falling to 7.6 percent, down from double-digit increases in previous
months, the State Administration of Taxation ( SAT ) said, according
to the China Daily.
 The country garnered 61.11 billion yuan ( 7.36 billion US
dollars ) in industrial and commercial taxes that month.
 SAT said it "ascribed the slowdown to enterprises' shortage of
funds", as well as fewer working days in January because of the
Chinese New Year.
 Economic reforms aimed at ending unprofitable state enterprises'
drain on the banking system have made fund raising more difficult
for perenially unprofitable state firms, causing many to go bankrupt
in recent months.
 Domestic consumption and sales taxes, two major contributors of
revenue to overall taxes, also suffered, as overall consumption
growth slowed due to rising unemployment and the growing maturity of
the Chinese market.
 Consumption and sales tax collection fell five percent to 25.17
billion yuan in January, the SAT reported.
 Income tax collection from both collective and private
enterprises also fell, along with revenues from taxes on use of
natural resources and urban construction projects.
 About one-third of China's 36 provinces, municipalities and
autonomous regions suffered lower tax collections in January, SAT
 Notable exceptions were the Tibet Autonomous Region and the
Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, both of which witnessed growth in
tax collection of more than 20 percent.
 On a positive note, income tax revenue from foreign joint
ventures soared 20.9 percent in January from the previous year, to
2.03 billion yuan. And income tax collection from individuals rose
26.2 percent to 2.43 billion yuan, SAT said.
 The agency noted that it had signed a special agreement
Wednesday with authorities in Hong Kong to prevent double taxation.
 According to the agreement, the mainland will tax business
profits of Hong Kong companies' mainland operations, while Hong Kong
will collect taxes on profits of mainland companies operating in the
special administrative region.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:52 - ID#411149)
crazytimes- please gime a holler


Tally Ho

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:53 - ID#258427)
Look at the Kitco silver graph page
at the NY opening spike...scary...

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:54 - ID#351224)
Lies, more lies and damned statistics!
- Incomes in China will grow this year by
18.5 percent overall, official reports said Thursday, despite an
expected increase in unemployment.
 The Chinese are expected to earn 5.15 trillion yuan ( 620 billion
US dollars ) in income this year, according to the Ministry of
Internal Trade, the official China Daily reported.
 The rise comes despite anticipated job losses stemming from a
sweeping reorganisation of the state sector expected to drive up
 Helped by the projected rise in income, retail sales are also
expected to grow by about 16 percent, the ministry said. Retail
sales will jump to about 3.25 trillion yuan in 1998, the department
 The growth in incomes "will provide a solid base for domestic
market growth," said the ministry.
 Good harvests over the past three years are also expected to
lead to an increase in grain output of 1.5 percent, which will help
meet excess demand, the department added.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:56 - ID#238295)
bear dying
April gold up $3.00 a few minutes ago according to DBC. But the trading day is just beginning on the Comex. I have not felt this optimisitc about the yellow for a long long time. Not for an immediate huge jump. But for the great probability that the bear is gasping its last dying breathe

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:57 - ID#183109)
Korean Quote of the Morning
``This is much worse than I expected. I am afraid a vicious cycle has started,'' said Lee Hahn-koo, president of Daewoo Research Institute

(Fri Feb 27 1998 08:59 - ID#258129)
Gold spot
is going up! Just bought gold calls - Aug 310 at $8.0

(Fri Feb 27 1998 09:00 - ID#411259)
..... Always..... Ballance .....
Since some cut and pasted a market report quoting a trader at Merrill saying silver has no more steam left in it. I offer the following from the Future Source; yesterday's closing comments:

Merrill was short silver.. Surprise !!!!!!!!!!

mostly higher here today, with silver futures posting the
biggest surge after a big bounce from session lows.
Gold and platinum futures also ended with gains, while
only palladium was in negative territory.
A key for the silver market will be the direction of
open interest Friday, since it is first notice day for the
March contract, said Dave Meger, metals analyst at Alaron
"You're going to be able to tell a lot from the open
interest," he continued. "Basically, what you're going to be
looking for is to see whether a lot of people are looking to
take delivery, or if you're seeing a lot of investors and
large speculators and funds that will be liquidating their
March prior to tomorrow's close."
If market participants appear to be taking delivery, he
continued, it would be supportive for silver prices.
If they are not taking delivery, he continued, open
interest will be falling.
Meger listed support for May silver at $5.90 to $5.85.
He put resistance around $6.30 to $6.40.
"A close above $6.40, in my mind, would put us back
into a bullish outlook for this market," he continued. "And
closes below that supportive zone could definitely be viewed
as short-term bearish. We'd probably be looking for the
$5.60 to $5.50 level as the next downside target."
Meger noted silver trade has been thin for a couple of
weeks now, which is why it has been so volatile.
Meanwhile, Guy Gleichmann, senior trader at Futures
Trading Group, said that based on the short-term downward
correction on the daily charts, most of his momentum
indicators are giving him oversold readings and a "buy
signal." Of his short-term indicators, he said, five are
positive, three negative and two neutral.
He put short-term Fibonacci support at $5.76--which
held today--with another level at $5.34.
Longer term, he noted, the breakout pattern in silver
occurred in July of 1997--which coincides with the time
Warren Buffett began accumulating his 129.7 million ounces
of silver. The way the market has recently held long-term
support suggests "a bigger and more aggressive rally ahead,"
he said.
The market would have to go below $5.31 to neutralize
the bull trend, he continued.
Fibonacci weekly support held today at $5.827, he said.
The next resistance is $6.2220 and $6.7100. Based on Gann
angles, the next resistance comes in at $6.40, then
Gleichmann noted silver stocks still remain low, at
90,867,604 troy ounces, according to figures released after
Wednesday's close.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 09:06 - ID#341189)
@testing new access

(Fri Feb 27 1998 09:06 - ID#238295)
The Big Lie
Another illustration of how widespread official hypocrisy and lying have become in the USA today.

"It is insulting to the integrity of the American business community and to the intelligence of the American public to imply that any industry contributes to Congress to buy votes", according to Kelly Johnson -- a top official with the National Food Processors Association.

I don't think even Clinton ever told such a wopper. Hitler's big lie technique has found a new fertile home in America and its business community.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 09:07 - ID#351224)
Happy trading. Antipodean good night to all
LONDON, Feb 27 ( Reuters ) - Gold extended overnight gains in early European trade on Friday, with silver and platinum following as sentiment towards all three metals strengthened, dealers said.
Gold fixed at $296.55 an ounce in the morning, up on Thursday afternoon's $293.00, on gains in New York and again during Asian and early European trade.

It was last trading steadily at $296.50/$297.00, versus $294.40/$294.90 at Thursday's close in New York.

``Gold might try as high as $297 or $298, but I think it will find it very toppy up there,'' one London dealer said.

``I think we have seen the bottoms in both gold and silver,'' he added.

Gold's rise in New York came after lease rates had tightened in London, which prompted short covering.

That was followed by light buying in Australia, which was enough to sustain the move up so long as producers refrained from selling.

``Most of the Australian sale orders are way over the market so we are quite happy to watch it go up for the moment,'' the dealer said.

London Bullion Market Association figures for the gold lease rate showed 2.15 percent for one-month versus Thursday's 2.39 percent and Monday's 1.34 percent.

Silver's speedy rise from below $6.00 bid during late European trade on Thursday suggested resumed fund activity as lease rates tightened again after a brief return to the normality of two percent for one-month metal.

``The way we ripped up from $6.05 to $6.25 yesterday seemed to be no trouble at all, which would suggest to me that the funds are back in again,'' the dealer said.

Fund buying after U.S. investor Warren Buffett's announcement of a major silver stake in early February took the price to $7.90 before it settled back.

Spot metal was last at $6.36/$6.39 versus its New York close of $6.19/$6.23.

``I think there's been a bit of extra tightening this morning on the forwards. I got the impression we are going to get a further liquidity squeeze,'' the dealer said.

But he added that rates were unlikely to reach the levels seen in early February, when they briefly hit 80 percent.

Brokers GNI said in a report that silver remained a buy despite firmer prices.

``We would recommend buying silver at current levels,'' it said, adding that call options for July silver priced at $6.25 were ``reasonable value'' at 52.2 cents.

Call options allow the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy metal at a future date at a specified price on payment of a premium.

GNI said silver futures, instead of the more risk-limited options, should be protected with stop-loss orders at $6.00.

``The more aggressive could buy futures, protected by a stop around the $6 level,'' it said. But current volatility meant that would be a high-risk strategy.

Platinum also rose overnight, although purchases came in Japan on the back of yen strength against the dollar.

Further gains in Europe took platinum to $384.00/$386.00 versus $382.60/$384.60 at New York's close.

Palladium, more concerned with when Russian supplies would arrive than its yen-affected sister metal, dropped to $236.50/$238.50 versus a $238.00/$240.00 New York close.


(Fri Feb 27 1998 09:09 - ID#197314)
pale ale ( maybe that will slip me past the post guards ) homebrewing
is absolutly the best,in the U.S.A. strict laws on alcohol content
on domestic and imported beer ,I seriously doubt you can get a
undoctered strong import,all the european and mexican strong beers
are watered down before they export them over here.Nowdays
with the lab. liquid yeast and pellet hops and the new sanitisors
it's gotta to be easier than before to make good beer.I save
the last of my batch ( when bottling ) to make a yeast starter everytime
also like to add honey since I have bees.I know you probably
know all this but I am so thakful to the friend who motivated
me too start that would like to try to do the same for another


(Fri Feb 27 1998 09:09 - ID#333127)
My money at this point is on platinum.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 09:16 - ID#258427) silver bouncing around
look at the kitco graph

(Fri Feb 27 1998 09:17 - ID#222231)
Silverbaron-Wherever you are!
Read RJ's 09:00 post about Meryll Lynch.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 09:20 - ID#351224)
jman - Might be asleep - but always have one eye open!
Will find out FULL details on Thomas Cooper and his wonderous brew and post to those interested. I cannot see why we would have to add water before we send it off to our American brothers!
PS The Cooper home brew kit is great. Just 13c a 750ml bottle! Oh yes, almost forgot - GO GOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 09:24 - ID#243180)
You posted:

"Some are traders; some are accumulators. If $ actually started competing for AU, the price would go way, way beyond the 1980 levels."

This is theoretically true, however, the history I've studied has not showned this for long periods especially with a competing fiat still in existence. Do you have any data that refutes my claim ---- I'd love to use it as a sweetener for those down on Au/Ag.


(Fri Feb 27 1998 09:29 - ID#243180)
What's up with the volume in late Jan ??,,,,,,,, from Mar97-to-Oct97 DROOY had very little volume while on its decline,,, from Nov97-to-now the volume is the greatest and price declining except for the spike in late Jan98.

Is this a buy or am I a dipster waiting in the wings,,,,, any analysis ????


(Fri Feb 27 1998 09:45 - ID#243180)
Brass Ring Trading System,,,,,,
Anybody know of this and does it work ???

(Fri Feb 27 1998 09:52 - ID#153102)
Gold has not traded freely against fiat long enough to indicate anything.
It seems counterintuitive that recession and inflation go together, but they do. Look at Asia. The trend of the period of cycles tells something about the stability of a system.
year % industrial decine duration in months

1960-61 -6 9
1969-70 -7 12
1973-75 -13 18
1980-82 -30 26

(Fri Feb 27 1998 09:56 - ID#31868)
Go ahead and buy it, DROOY is a buy under 2 1/2, once you buy it, forget you own it for a while, price fluctuations will sicken you, drink a great deal, wait for gold to mount a significant move, it will come to life.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 09:58 - ID#31868)
see Leland 12:28 yesterday afternoon.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 10:03 - ID#197314)
Futures gold,

been following open interest and volume for a while and
my general feeling is most of the sellers are out and that
the longs are all hardheads like most of us,there not getting off the bus
this close to the turning point,this could get fun in a hurry!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 10:06 - ID#411149)
Somebody don't like BONDS [US trash paper] down 13 ticks.
Could they possibly be sellin paper and buyin [I wish] gold.

Have any of you heard the Bow tied Alabama Boy say anything about
gold on CNBC in the last few weeks - I ain't. You reckon he issa BUYIN??

Tally Ho

(Fri Feb 27 1998 10:07 - ID#20137)
Sorry to repeat this BUT it looks GOOD!

Date: Fri Feb 27 1998 00:55
A.Goose ( ( wait BUT lok at the elligible STOCKS! ) ) ID#20137:

296,524 27,156 0 29,156 24,923 350,603
143,818 11,412 0 11,412 -24,923 130,307
440,342 40,568 0 40,568 0 480,910

Gold elligible on 2-25-98 was 143,818 ounces.
Now 130,307 -- Looking good.


-1,011,861 5,401,911 36,414,124
-294,656 -5,401,911 53,146,963
-1,306,517 0 89,561,087

Silver elligible dropped 5,401,911 WOOOOOOOOOOW!!!!!!

Am I reading this wrong or something...pinch me, maybe I am dreaming.

Well, I am not dreaming.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 10:11 - ID#20137)
Also LOOK at that BOND...
Looks like it is breaking out. Maybe the Japanese are selling?
The last time it was this high was in mid December. ( above 6, is the start of a trend? )

(Fri Feb 27 1998 10:11 - ID#153102)
Interesting post. Many parallels.
The debt currency system of 1998 is not nearly as stable as the 1929 system which was not a planned debt currency but a de facto debt currency officially converted in 1933. Keynes is dead. Apres moi le deluge. The devil take the hindmost: us.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 10:20 - ID#201238)
watch those eligible stocks folks
It would appear that the eligible gold stock moves on Comex predict the short term direction of the market. Each time we have fallen the last few months eligible stocks rose just before, almost like someone knew something! Ah, but when eligible stocks fall and gold goes up, what is next? You are a good student A.Goose!

At least I am not a lone voice in the wilderness anymore.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 10:23 - ID#280222)
(A. Goose 10:11)
Or else a set-up for another run. ( Bonds ) Gold could just be collecting new blood ?????????

(Fri Feb 27 1998 10:27 - ID#424187)
What are eligible stocks ????

(Fri Feb 27 1998 10:27 - ID#289271)
Traders Commitment
Anyone know when the Trader's Commitment report is due out today? And if so where it would be posted?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 10:29 - ID#341189)
gold and silver lease rate
Gold lease rates are holding above 2% and silver rates are headed bakck to the rediculous.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 10:37 - ID#26793)
Reasons offered for 6% long bond

(Fri Feb 27 1998 10:40 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Wouldn't surprise me to see gold moving up into/through next Wedneday. Would surprise me if it went down instead. 320ish? Should be fun anyway.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 10:41 - ID#201238)
Ok, let me explain it like this. The registered stocks are like having your
car parked in your neighbors garage, he has no right to it, its just parked there. The eligible stocks are like your neighbor gave you something and
you gave him the title to your car which he could take under certain
conditions. Both cars show up as being in his garage.

Is that being too obtuse?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 10:42 - ID#31868)
Je ne parle pas Francais! Ich kann nicht nur einige wort verstehen!

I can't spell either!!!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 10:45 - ID#225273)
May I wax technical for a moment?

To all:

Gold is stronger than the XAU today. I don't think this is a new trend nor a negative, but I think it is tied to "last-day-of-month" trading.
Let me explain an "outside day" and an "inside day."
Say a price is falling for a good period of time. Then, one day the price falls to new lows, but before the day is over it recovers and actually trades above the high of the previous day, with a positive close. This would be an outside day, normally a signal of a trend change.
Apply this scenario to the monthly charts and this is what happened in January in both gold and the XAU. The January low for both was below the December low. And after a turn, the January high was higher than the December high for both, with a higher close.
That signaled a high probability of a trend change.

Many times after an outside day ( week/month ) , will come an inside day ( week/month ) . In this formation, the high is lower than the previous day's high but the low is higher than the previous day's low. And when there is an inside day, it's good to have a slightly negative close. That generally signals the next move is up.

Apply this to the monthly charts and that's what has happened in both gold and the XAU. A slightly negative close in both would be bullish.
As today began, the XAU was only down 2.20 points for the month. So I didn't expect it to rise more than that. So far it hasn't.
But gold was down over $7.00 for the month. It could rise $5.00 today and still form a nice-looking inside month.
And to me, this is what accounts for gold being stronger than the XAU today.
Of course the day isn't over. And this technical analysis, like any other, could be shown to be incorrect before the day is over. But at this point, this seems to me to be what is happening.

I bought some BGO today to take advantage of a short-term run in the gold price.

Good trading, more later....

The Preacher

(Fri Feb 27 1998 10:47 - ID#426220)

GOLD FUTURES have jumped to 301 this morning, but trading now at about 299.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 10:54 - ID#242249)
CANADA``The competitive alternative''

Study ranked Canada first overall amongst its competitors: France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States in terms of competitive costs of business.

And on top of that this country is hiding above and under ground a lot of the real Stuff and PM.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 10:55 - ID#20137)
Thanks Arden, I really appreciate the kind words. Thanks for taking the time to share your espertise.

Futures Contracts
Updated as of: Feb 27, 1998 @ 10:48 am ET

Sym. Company Name Last Change %Chg High Low Vol.

GC J8 Apr. Gold 2987 +33 +1.1 3012 2923 19.1K
SI K8 May Silver 6300 +97 +1.6 6355 6205 25.0K
HG K8 May High Grade Copper 7770 +50 +0.6 7800 7640 11.2K
PL J8 April Platinum 3830 +4 +0.1 3880 3800 1.53K

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Fri Feb 27 1998 10:58 - ID#26395)
Investing in Rhodium - 101

Rhodium is an industrial precious metal and has only one standard physical form called "sponge" which looks like a darkish colored powder. This is how industry requires it and conveniently the form it takes anyway when it comes out of the refining process. There are no such thing as rhodium bars since the metal is useless in a solid metallic form. It's high melting temperature and hardness would also make it an expensive process for pouring into investment bars. Rhodium is not popular with private investors probably because of these physical properties. If you're showing your Krugerrand collection to a friend and they happen to sneeze, it's no big deal.

Because Kitco's customer base is made up of mainly industrial precious metal accounts we can sell rhodium sponge either in viles, bags, or other container depending on the quantity that's requested. It gets shipped direct from Johnson Matthey with their assay specs. If you're speculating on the Rh then when it's time to sell there would be an assay charge ( about $100 ) . This is necessary to determine that nobody decided to replace the metal with the leftovers from your kids' broken Etch-A-Sketch.

An alternate way to own rhodium is by purchasing it in a pool account with a precious metal refiner or dealer. Although you won't have the comfort of knowing that your rhodium is safely in your own hands, you won't have an assay charge or shipping to pay and the sale can be made with a phone call on short notice.

Rhodium is very thinly traded with less than 500,000 ozs. supplied each year. Consumption last year was estimated at being a few thousand ozs less than supply. CPM group ( ) is the best source of supply/demand stats and historical pricing They also make price projections and are often the ones quoted by the news services when there's a story to do on the platinum group metals. In 1990 the price went as high as $7,000.00 USD/ozs. because of a supply problem. The $50.00 spread between the bid and ask price is due to the thinness of the market.

Because demand is so close to supply, the price sensitivity to shifts in the supply/demand balance is highly elastic. It seems that that's what we're seeing with this most recent runup. As of last year supply outpaced demand by only 5,000 ozs. There are very few private investors/speculators who have an interest in Rh for the reasons I already mentioned. If that were to change it would not take much to put serious upward pressure on the price of the metal.

BTW I posted this info because firstly someone asked, and secondly because it's interesting - otherwise you wouldn't have read this far into the post. To avoid anyone accusations of using this forum for self-promotion and therefore breaking our own advertising rules, I invite all dealers who sell rhodium to go ahead and post their name, telephone number, and rhodium price information. But I bet nobody will because nobody does.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 10:59 - ID#31868)
SSC over 50,000 shares traded and the dog is just laying there. Yeah I know CFB went down, but so did old dixie and look at the south now. FSR, only a couple of trades and 7 cents up, hmmmmmmmmmmm

I LOVE VOLATILITY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

and the Hangovers in the background, doowap, doowap.........

LGB I hope your contact lenses are made of nomex.........................

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:00 - ID#26395)
Almost forgot - part I
Rh overview from cpmgroup 1996 report

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:02 - ID#26395)
And part II

(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:05 - ID#289357)
tolerant1 - Silverbaron now Goldbaron??

Thanks for your input yesterday on DROOY.....I dumped a bunch of SSRIF this morning and loaded up on the golden flavor. Never could understand why SSRIF didn't move with silver....DROOY now trading at 2 1/2 !! The retracment down-trend has now been broken. TO THE MOON!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:16 - ID#31868)
Silver, ah, GoldBaron
Welcome to the machine, now remember what I told you, forget you own it, drink heavily, enjoy life...

SSC-ruff, ruff

Bill Monroe's ghost is here, out to listen to the GOLDEN Mandolin...


(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:20 - ID#222231)
intolerant onw
That's arf arf arf arf woof woof, I hope it bites you!!!!in the arse.

Lurker 777
(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:22 - ID#317247)
Bart Kitner ( Kitco ) ( Investing in Rhodium - 101 )
An alternate way to own rhodium is by purchasing it in a pool account with a precious metal refiner or dealer. Although you won't have the comfort of knowing that your rhodium is safely in your own hands, you won't have an assay charge or shipping to pay and the sale can be made with a phone call on short notice.
I would like to own some Rhodium and I am sure others at this site would be game. Will you start a pool account for us? Thanks!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:23 - ID#333232)
Another piece of the puzzle, or a dead-end?
SDRer - this may interest you:
"The exchange rate for the Islamic Dinar vis--vis the currency of disbursement / repayment is based on the IMF rate for the SDR on the date preceding the day of the payment." ISDB

(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:24 - ID#201238)
more words of wisdom
A. Goose

You can find more words of wisdom at

You might even recognize someone.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:24 - ID#22956)
Old Gold
Thanks for the mention in your post. With one correction. I am short gold AND I am LONG gold. This rally is suspicious but I am happy for a move. I will profit either way ( unless it is a wishy-washy *dog*, which could come to pass ) . I am long silver ( go silver ) , long copper ( ugh, but hold it anyway ) , no plat ( right now ) , no Rhodium ( but I will reconsider now, thanks Bart;- ) ) . I am a 'trader' and my positions change regularly. That is all. Thanks. the charts


hey Spuds, I am holding some pretty ugly cotton calls too.......ya can't be all right....not ALL the time.......dig?

The Hatt
(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:27 - ID#294232)
The Pressure Has Reversed And The Shorts Have a Headache!
It would not surprise me to see the spot close over three hundred today as more than a few shorts may not feel comfortable holding their positions over the weekend. The refusal to rollover 1,000,000 ounces has sent a clear message to the markets. All it would take at this point is for a couple more positions to publicly refuse to roll. This could get very exciting.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:28 - ID#22956)
golfie jokie for the Tort
Moses and Jesus were in a threesome playing golf one day. Moses pulled
up to the tee and drove a long one. The ball landed in the fairway, but
rolled directly toward a water hazard. Quickly Moses raised his club,the
water parted and it rolled to the other side, safe and sound. Next, Jesus
strolled up to the tee and hit a nice long one directly toward the same
water hazard. It landed right in the center of the pond and kind of hovered
over the water. Jesus casually walked out on the pond and chipped the ball
onto the green. The third guy got up and sort of randomly whacked the
ball. It headed out bounced off a truck and hit a nearby tree. From there,
it bounced onto the roof of a shack close by and rolled down into the
gutter, down the drainspout, out onto the fairway and straight toward the
aforementioned pond. On the way to the pond, the ball hit a little stone
and bounced out over the water onto a lily pad, where it rested quietly.
Suddenly a very large bullfrog jumped up on a lily pad and snatched the
ball into his mouth. Just then, an eagle swooped down and grabbed the frog
and flew away. As they passed over the green, the frog squealed with fright
and dropped the ball, which bounced right into the cup for a hole in one.
Moses turned to Jesus and said, "I hate playing with your Dad."

ho hum...

(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:30 - ID#22956)
and....from the " if the shoe fits..." department...
"Dogs have more friends than people because they wag their tails instead
of their tounges." - Martha J. Beckman
I can repost this one from time to time...uh huh wag the dog

(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:31 - ID#7568)

The driving force behind Comex inventory withdrawals has been higher London prices. Because the Comex silver is of lower grade than needed for London delivery, it must be refined before it can be delivered. Consequently, it is only drawn down when supplies in London of higher quality material are not available and the spread between London and New York prices rises to a point where it exceeds the refining and shipping costs, somewhere around 8-10 cents an ounce.

As late as yesterday morning the spread between one month New York and London spot silver was 4 bid at 8. With the premium being below that necessary for a successful arbitrage one could have expected low demand for physical delivery out of Comex based upon the arbitrage alone. In the past 24 hours the spread has moved out to 8 bid at 12. We are now in the range where the arbs will begin pulling metal out of Comex, sending it to the refiners and delivering it against London contracts. Look for Comex inventories to resume their decline.

Because it is always important to focus on information which runs counter to your thinking I am an avid reader of Mr. Armstrong over at PEI.

Unfortunately he is becoming less and less rational as time goes on and his articles now contain significant factual errors. The most glaring one is his estimation of the storages costs for physical silver which he estimates at something like 45 - 50 cents per ounce per year. Last I looked, Comex storage costs, which by the way is about the most expensive place to store your silver, were running around 4.8 cents per year. If one had a sizeable load and endeavored to create ones own storage facility my guess would be than it could be done for perhaps a quarter of this price.

It would not be such a big deal if Mr. Armstrongs numbers were presented in passing. They are however the basis for his thesis that Mr. Buffett is sure to lose money on his purchase because the carrying costs are going to destroy him. The final implication is that this will cause Mr. Buffett to bail out and the ensuing liquidation of his position will send silver to near 0.

I find it hard to believe that someone who purports to manage or at least influence upwards of a billion dollars could sit down and write something so purely fictional and then sign his name to it.

For all you conspiracy buffs out there perhaps Mr. Armstrong is acting as a front for the cartel. His job is to keep up the 'short' story while the accumulation game runs its course.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:31 - ID#243180)
just bough DROOY at 2,,,17/32,,,, thanx,,,,,,,

(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:32 - ID#426220)

XAU NEARLY 76... is that a BREAKOUT, or is that a BREAKOUT!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:35 - ID#183109)
50+ hours of surfing....hears what I've come up with for the Kitco Gang.

THE BEST BUY AROUND? YOU BE THE JUDGE!!!! After reading nealy 500 articles over the past 2 weeks, here are the highlights that Ive found. I owned the old RANGY several years ago, and sold it for a double. But the NEW RANGY has really turned out to be something worth a look. Ive never, ever put so much of my portfolio into one stock, but with this amazing list of holdings, Im looking at is as more of a super leveraged mutual fund, kind of a one stop shopping stock if you will. Im sleeping good at night knowing the following about RANDGOLD:

* 12% ownership of DURBAN DEEP ( DROOY )

* 6% ownership of HARMONY ( HGMCY )

* 50.6% of CROWN CONSOLIDATED, with INITIAL production of 155, 000 ounces a year at a cost of $265/oz. Several million ounces of reserves

* 35% interest at Marsfontein with partner Southern Era, DIAMOND BEARING KIMBERLITE

* 57.3% holding in RANDGOLD RESOURCES: RR in turn has 225 targets spread throughout Africa. RR geologists working in 22 permit areas in 7 countries, have already amassed nearly 10 million attributable ounces, of which 86% are measured and indicated.

* The Syama mine in Mali, estimated to produce 270,000 ounces of gold a year at $210/oz by the 4th quarter of this year, with gold resources of around 5 million ounces and rising. ( Randgold paid about $2 per share for this alone. )

* Loulo project, also in Mali, estimated to produce 140,000 ounces at $225.

* First phase of feasibility project at the Tanzania Golden Ridge project, with 1.5 million ounce target, with production estimated at $200/oz.

* 10% stake in Navachab.

* 90 gold targets in BURKINA FASO, with 3500 square km concessions

* Three new concessions in the IVORY COAST.

* Ongoing exploration in GABON at Ndojole, Knan, and Pintade.

* MALI Loulo project, two year development, to produce 140,000 oz/year over a ten year life.

* Type 2 pre-feasibility well-advanced for a 100,000 oz/year open cast operation Nyaligongo MALI.

* Heap leach project at Syama adding 30,000 ounces/year AT ONLY $110/OZ!

* Morila project in MALI: Chairman Flack states This could be the real bonanza, the one that really makes us. Not only is it on a tar road readily serviced, it has yielded excellent results: wide rich strikes and easily extactable gold.

* And in addition to all this, A MINERAL RIGHTS PACKAGE VALUED AT $85 MILLION! ( this alone is $2 a share for RANGY! )

(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:41 - ID#345176)
@ vronsky, @ all

Real XAU breakout is at 80!

Lurker 777
(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:43 - ID#317247)
Your killing me. HaHaHaHaHa Good joke, I think I will give that one to my paster.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:45 - ID#420116)
Buffett's Silver Carrying Costs
Buffett will probably melt the silver into a 5,400 ton coke bottle replica and charge people to see it.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:50 - ID#22956)
good post D.A.....(as usual)
Now we will wait for the eventual/likely post from LGB about how great Mr Armstrong is........ ( not ) your thing lgb...

D.A. - You post all fact and no fiction. AND your posts still read like a man who is quite a bit more than just knee-deep in silver.....perhaps the belly-button?? go silver. yu-da-man. observe the spike

Lurker 777
(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:51 - ID#317247)

(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:52 - ID#20137)
Nice mustache. Thanks for the url.


(Fri Feb 27 1998 11:52 - ID#28594)
cmh, your 11:23
GREAT FIND! My sincere thanks for bringing it forward!
As to "confirmation or dead end..." we'll just keep collecting our
threads, weaving and hope that no one comes at night to unravel our
work! {:- ) Again, GREAT FIND! Hearty thanks!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:03 - ID#7568)

Some very important news with respect to gold has just come down the pipe. Apparently the Bank of Belgium has just failed to renew a lease of around 3.1 million ounces of gold. This is what has caused the pressure on the lease rates and the subsequent rally in prices.

The likely reasons for the end of leasing are one of two. Either they have already sold the metal and it has been absorbed by the market or they have been given the word by the Bundesbank that the gold game is changing. Each of these conditions is positive for the metal going forward.

Rumor in the market had been that the first quarter of 1998 was going to see some final sales before the EMU gold window came down. Perhaps we have just seen the window snapping shut. If this is the case, then the entire short thesis, namely unlimited central bank supply will be called into question.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:08 - ID#57232)
Thanks -- mayhem at work - so brief Kitco visit only.
RJ: Thanks for your 'balance' to the Merrill post. I find it hard to believe that any competent investor in silver would think the dwinding silver stocks are bearish. Any short term bear trend in silver is likely to be very brief. I read a newsletter from CPM group that indicated that the silver production - consumption shortfall is several times greater than the shortfall leading up to the 1980 silver spike. So -- as soon as silver stocks dwindle away to nothing-- things will get explosively bullish. It is also my understanding that silver production is inelastic, dependind on lead, zinc, copper mining production, which has dropped. So -- the silver spike will probably hit before the silver producers can do anything.

Any idea why the silver price is so volatile? The only physical analogy I can think of is 'critical opalescence'. I guess another way of looking at this is that someone is trying hard to dig up new supplies of silver, but the delivery is getting sporadic. Time for a 'phase change' very soon! I feel sorry for the silver bears, as I think they will be wiped out.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:08 - ID#424187)
To D.A. love your posts please don't stop-thankyou

(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:08 - ID#287129)
Bart Kitner, Rhodium, and possible AD policy
I found Bart's discussion of Rhodium to be quite interesting. While I'm not currently a prospect for a Rhodium pool ( due to being overextended in gold & silver ) , the idea is a good one.

Also, it is my own opinion that the creator of this website most certainly should have the right to advertise his products/services. Perhaps by stating "ADVERTISEMENT" in the subject line, those who are not interested could keep on reading...but certainly Bart deserves some payback for creating this site. While I'm glad that the site is not cluttered with postings filled with various ads disguised inside postings, perhaps one consideration of an advertising policy might be as follows:

1. All advertisements must be by pre-approved contract between the poster and exceptions.
2. Any advertisements in a posting must contain "ADVERTISEMENT" or "AD" as the first word in the subject line.
3. Each advertisement must pertain to PM or PM stock investing.
4. Kitco can charge a FEE for each advertisement posted, based on length and number of times posted.

As long as postings had "AD" as the first word in the subject line, we would know in advance whether or not it contained commercial content, and then could quickly decide whether to read them or skip over them.

If the above guidelines are adopted, then Bart could post occasional ads with a clean conscience. I for one would rather read through some postings labelled "AD" in the subject line rather than having to pay for the right to be on this newsgroup. Yet with the increasing number of posters and lurkers, this would allow people with genuine products or services to reach a QUALIFIED readership quickly. Furthermore, it would provide a way for the people at Kitco to receive a payback for what they are providing for all of us.


(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:09 - ID#258129)
@Preacher, 10:45
Your analysis is interesting. I can try to explain current events from a different point of view. It is known, that market has memory. Unlike classic stochastic process, where the value on each time step defined by some probability function of [last] previous value, market "remembers" more than one step back. In fact, when we make weekly or monthly charts, we simply ignore what has happened in between and go more and more steps back. Of course, it the not market itself, who has memory, it is memory of people, playing this market. It is well known, that we have long-term and short term memory. IMO, what has happened with Gold in 1997 - big picture - is already out of short-term memory. Last few weeks Gold price was stable, deviations very small. On the other hand everybody understand, that it can not continue too long with paper like it goes now - record every day. Should be some store where to keep profits and, maybe, even earn more. While bond are getting weak. Thats why.
PS There are some charts, also showing that its time to buy - MA, Stochastics and other regular TA stuff

PH in LA
(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:10 - ID#225408)
Mozel's copyrightable "Of Fish and Frogs"

Loved your post "Of Fish and Frogs"

Yesterday when we were discussing ANOTHER's rights to the new publication at USA Gold with comments on his THOUGHTS, Obsidian ( and others ) commented that few posts on the internet would be worth claiming copyright. Yours however should certainly be excluded from that large group.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:10 - ID#246224)
CMH - Interesting document. In fact we are talking about a Bank which does its business in tangibles ( goods and services ) . Any projects are repaid with Dianrs and a fee paid in goods. "Interest is charges on money paid in money." "Fees are paid in goods."

(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:14 - ID#22956)
my suspicions have been confirmed
Thanks D.A.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:18 - ID#183109)
CAM's posible buyer of RANGY
John Disney,

I know you and a few others were looking into Consolidated African Mines ( CAM ) a few days ago. I forgot to mention that the most recent article I found, titled RANDGOLD, Takeover Target said that four companies were in takeover talks with Randgold. According to this article, the most obvious is CAM, which is already the largest shareholder of Randgold, with 8%. Lets hope for a bidding war eh buddy : )

(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:26 - ID#246224)
1,000,000 ounces of gold? contracts? not rolled over. Is this COMEX call notices on FND? Where are you getting this?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:28 - ID#342282)
A lot of circulating comments ( not necessarily here ) remind me of the combination of two words, serendipity and paradiddle which gives paradipity. This describes the flight of the FLU FLU bird. He flies in ever decreasing concentric circles till he makes an anal entry.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:30 - ID#20748)
D.A. Thanks for the news
Hope the Bank of Holland is next in line.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:36 - ID#269409)
Gold....the behemouth, is the winner
Homestake mining up almost 9% ??? Wow!!!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:38 - ID#238295)
DA posts
DA: We differ fundamentally on Midest events, but I do appreciate your posts on gold, silver, the economy, monetary policy, and the markets in general. Look forward to many more of the same.

The Hatt
(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:40 - ID#294232)
Allen USA.......
Take a look at USA Gold Site! Also note post 12:03!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:42 - ID#28594)
cmh--The authorized capital of IDB as of July, 1992
was raised to Isalmic Dinar ( ID ) 6.00 BILLION ( subscribed capital was ID 4.Billion.

Each dinar according to Islamic Law is a specific weight of gold equivalent to 4.3 grammes. You mentioned the other day that you had a method whereby you might 'ballpark' where they had 'fixed' gold's price
for the dinar.

My work with the 'other' currencies is evincing unexpected correlations; having a guesstimate with regards to WHERE such a large segment of the **gold-using** public set the price would be helpful beyond belief.
Is it possible? Or shall I attempt to "Back-figure" ? Many thanks!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:44 - ID#22956)
almost forgot........

(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:44 - ID#238295)
goldbear dying
I suspect when financial historians write the histry of this era, they will say the gold bear finally died on February 27, 1998. Good riddance!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:46 - ID#289357)
tolerant1 @ FSR.V

Do you know if FSR.V is trying for a NASDAQ listing?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:47 - ID#213265)
@the scene
D.A. -- That latest news you posted certainly lends a lot of credence that the gold bear is DEAD! People should start/finish buying whatever they want to get bought while the gold stuff is still cheap!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:48 - ID#348129)
@Sea Change into March?
D.A. ( 12:03 ) : Good points. I have second your thinking.
As many expected, February has been a dog.
The ECU meeting next month should clear up the short and intermediate trend for Gold.
The 5% to 25% reserves the new CB is expected to hold should be clarified.
I think 15% would be major boost for Gold if it happens........

(Fri Feb 27 1998 12:53 - ID#28594)
Allen (USA) ....and....
Oil is a good ! {:- )

and of course, our chickens....

(Fri Feb 27 1998 13:00 - ID#334219)
FSR will trade on TSE first...probably in 2Q98. Eventually will go on Nasdaq.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 13:00 - ID#342282)
Preacher re your 10:45
I have witnessed a couple of selling climaxes on NYSE. I didnt realize the analysis you expresed could be applied to the moment you conveyed. This is interesting. I am trying to get a 5 to 10 year COT analysis applied to the price chart for gold. without going into detail here, do you have a basis, your head or reference, for your comments? I would like to hear from you. email is Many thanx

JOE Smith
(Fri Feb 27 1998 13:01 - ID#24869)
Bart Kitner (Kitco) (Investing in Rhodium - 101)
Thanks for info deposit at Munnu Munni in Australia has encountred some ot this samples are undergoing petrological examination.Some very large crystalls ( over Kg ) have been foundI. I shall pass on your assay services they may require it.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 13:09 - ID#333232)
SDRer - It wasn't me, it musta been some other...
I think the "ball-park" effort was mentioned by another ( not Another ) kitco contributor.
However, I would be very interested in any findings regarding the implied re-pricing/valuation of gold vis--vis the SDR/ID.

Back to work.

For all: multiple search engine triggers ( in case you need it )
Matilda ( try dogpile )

(Fri Feb 27 1998 13:10 - ID#269409)
Silver....RJ / Merril.....DA / Armstrong
Heyt EB, don't want to disappoint you! just a quick thanks to RJ and DA, for offsetting the propaganda of "Agenda" analysts with a reality check. I called Armstrong an idiot last week and was challeneged based on his position and success etc.

However, my reference to Amrstrong as an "idiot" was not related to his credentials, but his intellectual integrity. Which we can now celarly see by DA's post, has been seriosuly compromised, whatever the motive.

As to Merril Lynch, well, they were one of the Phibro lawsuit crowd with a huge sour grapes short position. I hope they lost many millions with their manipulation "analysis" play.

There, now I feel better!

Charles Keeling
(Fri Feb 27 1998 13:23 - ID#344225)
What a nice day!
All of the fundamentals look great: Dollar down.
Oil recovering. Gold up 4.35. Banks defaulting.

Someone posted that when buying the Philharmonic
you did not need to declare the purchase or the
sale of the coins. IS THIS CORRECT?

I think ( after reading all of ANOTHERS posts )
that perhaps it is time for some physical GOLD.

Right now I own gold stocks, because during the
last gold bull I noticed that the stocks
increased much more than the bullion.

Thanks for your input.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 13:24 - ID#401460)
GOLD 300

CNBC Gold @ $300
That is really a great number !

Buying those dips does work.


The Hatt
(Fri Feb 27 1998 13:32 - ID#294232)
Donot want to get to excited however..........................................
The fundamentals in reference to the non-rollovers if correct, could finally be the type of signal this market has been waiting for. We all know that sooner or later Gold will breakout in a big way and these rumors could be the start. Lets hope!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 13:35 - ID#287338)
Technical analysis is all well and fine, but sometimes you just have to sit back and enjoy the ride.

Could the move today could be as simply as the smart investors watching the irrational Dow and realizing the troubled waters ahead looking for a safe haven and bonds aren't it! Or maybe Japan is selling off our bonds and going for the gold. I don't think today is a technical thing.

I don't really want to figure it out right now. I just going to enjoying the ride!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 13:35 - ID#356379)
Silver@D.D., EB, and LGB

Thanks to all of you for your thoughtful and highly educational posts.

As a former ( meaning unsuccessful ) Commodity Trading Advisor ( CTA ) , I really appreciate the inside info on the battles being fought by the big players.

Funny that Merrill Lynch is up to their collective eyeballs in trying to manipulate the market while joining the pack to badmouth Buffett and his house, Philbro. In my experience, it was always comforting to take a position contrary to that espoused by Merrill Lynch. Their analysis always seemed to be directed toward handing the small traders their heads.

Now for those of you who work in the spot market trade, don't take this personally, but I would also observe that the time to worry if you are long gold or silver is when you start to hear the precious metals commercials on AM radio stations...

Especially scary is when you get the telemarketer calls. I had a great answer for those folks when they said I should buy gold/silver because it was about to go to the moon: "Gosh, I appreciate the offer, but I just couldn't sleep at night knowing I had taken some of your gold/silver right before it went up! If it is such a good deal, why are you willing to part with it?"

Back to the still...

Lurker 777
(Fri Feb 27 1998 13:36 - ID#317247)
Goooo Silver
RJ: Good call on silver!

Charles Keeling:
Customers are always concerned and confused by reporting requirements According to I.C.T.A. ( Industrial Council for Tangible Assets ) the I.R.S. expect all dealers who buy any of the following items and quantities to file a 1099B form or withhold 20% of the proceeds and remit it to the I.R.S.:
1. 32 oz. of Gold bars, or Maple Leafs, or Krugerrands, or Mexican Onzas.
2. Any size of Silver bars totaling 1000 oz.
3. Any combination of $1000.00 face value of 90% Silver Dimes, Quarters or Halves.
4. Any lot of Platinum 25 oz. or more.

There are no reporting requirements when the customer buys bullion or bullion-related items. The government does not care when individuals make a purchase; they care when you sell and make a profit or take a loss.

Here is the site: htm

(Fri Feb 27 1998 13:41 - ID#356379)
Brain fart

Oops! D.D. + D.A.; and I should also include RJ whose posts are also very helpful.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 13:49 - ID#225273)
chas & question

I don't fully understand what you are asking me? You ask if I have a basis for what I'm saying. I'm not sure what that means.
Also, I can't quite correlate my comments with yours. [But I did check and that was me that posted at 10:45.]
I didn't write about the Dow today and am unclear about the 5-10 year charts you are seeking.
Please help me out.

The Preacher

(Fri Feb 27 1998 13:56 - ID#222231)


One of the most profitable, yet least understood, metals trading strategies.

In Jan of 1979, gold was selling at about $230/oz. Had you bgt 1 gold futures contract then and held onto it until Dec 1979, when gold topped $500/oz, you would have made a profit of $25,310 on an initial investment of $2,000.
If, instead of selling that contract in Dec, you had held your position just 1 more mo.--until gold approached $850/oz--your profit would have mushroomed to $53,630! WOW
And, had you the forsight to make the same play in silver instead of gold, the results would have been more dramatic. A silver futures contract purchased in Jan 1979 and sold in Dec 1979 would have yielded a profit of $92,055 on a $2,500 investment. Held for just 1 more mo., the profit would have soared to $152,780!


But, let's not stop there. Since we did so well, we would have obviously had to try again. So, assume that in Jan 1980 we bought 1 gold futures contract and 1 silver futures contract ( just as most of the crowd was doing in Jan 1980 ) , again holding them for a yr.
How much more money did we make? Are we mllionaires yet? Well, not quite! We lost $22,610 on the gold contract. And, you hopefully ask, on the silver? On that account we LOST $112,400.

That, you see, is the problem in trading individual or buying gold and silver outright. Your success depends entirely on your timing. If your timing is right, you're a genius. But, if your timing is off, you could go broke, or worse!
however, we're going to show you a proven strategy that can make money for you no matter which way the prices of gold or silver go--a strategy that would have yielded huge returns, not only during the 1979 bull market in PM's, but in the 1980 bear market, as well.
In simplest terms, what you are about to learn is not how to make money when gold & silver prices rise, or gold & silver prices fall. What you are about to learn is how to profit when the ratio between gold and silver prices changes--which it can do regardless of the direction of the price movements.
Which simply stands for the gold/silver ratio trade. And is one of the favorite techniques of SUPERINVESTORS. You will learn-step by step-exactly how it works, why it works and how you can do it with as much ease and confidence as the SUPERINVESTORS themselves-even if you have only a small amnt of money to invest.

1 ) gives you the potential to earn a profit of between 100 & 1000 % on your investment.
2 ) Can be done often for small gains during relatively stable markets, while producing phenomenal profits during major market moves.
3 ) Has a defined and limited level of risk that you can keep as low as $1,000
4 ) Requires an initial upfront deposit, or margin, of only $2,000 to $4,000 for each play.


As you probably figured out from the earlier examples, gold and silver prices are VOLATILE, which means that they move up and down with reckless abandon. If you buy ( or sell short ) gold or silver, and you guess right, you make a lot of money. But, if you guess wrong, you lose.
However, with the GSR TRADE, the odds of making money move strongly in your favor no matter which way the prices move.


The GSR TRADE is a SPREAD STRATEGY. A spread involves the purchase of 1 commodity and the sale of another commodity. These spreads are done at exactly the same time and on contracts for the same delivery month. And it should be done with equal number of contracts on the buy and sell sides.
What you are interested in when you do the GSR trade is not the price of gold, nor the price of silver-you are interested in the diff between the two prices and the way this diff changes as prices of the metals change. However, unlike most spreads-where the relationship between the two paired commodities is stated as an absolute no of points- the gold/silver price relationship is expressed in terms of a ratio, such as 43-1 or 24 - 1. The ratio is always determined by dividing the price of gold futures price by the silver futures price.
What makes any spread strategy work is the fact that the relationship between the prices of the two commodities involve changes. The gold/silver ratio changes over time for a variety of reasons, the most important of which is the direction and magnitude of changes in the price of gold.
The central tendency in recent yrs has been for the price of gold to be between 34 to 38 times higher than the price of silver ( Note, this article was written in 1985 ) ( The current ratio is 50 to 1 ) . But, as gold prices change and/or certain events occur, the ratio will temp break out of this range. And, that's the secret of the GSR trade-to take advantage of significant movements away from this range.


There are 2 versions of the GSR trade, depending on whether the ratio goes above or below the normal range.

When gold prices are too high relative to silver prices-meaning you have a very high ratio-you buy silver futures and sell gold futured short. ( GSR+S TRADE )

When gold prices are too low relative to silver prices-meaning you have a very low ratio-then you buy gold futures and sell solver futures short. ( GSR+G TRADE )


Here is an example of the way a gold/silver spread is valued. Suppose that, in Mar 1985, you positioned a +S gold/silver spread, ie-you went short gold futures and long silver futures. At that time, Dec gold futures were selling for $311.40 ( the price of the contract is quoted as the price of 1 oz of gold, even though it reps 100 oz's and has an actual value of $31,140 Dec silver futures were selling for $6.017. Again the price is quoted for 1 oz of silver, though the total contract reps 5,000 oz's and has a value of $30,085.
What is the ratio between the 2 contracts? 51.75 to 1.
Valuing the GSR trade spread is as simple as that-and the value of the spread is what triggers your decision to do the +G or +S.
EXAMPLE: What happens if the ratio narrows ( as it actually did less than 1 mo later. ) ? In April 1985, Dec gold futures were selling for $338.90 and Dec silver futures were trading at $6.957. What's the ratio now? 48.71 to 1. That's great! Your GSR+S trade is now showing a profit. But how much? And what's the rate of return on your original investment-in this case, a margin deposit of $2,500. We'll close the trade out on paper and see how the actual figures stack up:

You sold gold short @+$311.40/oz
and bgt gold back @-$338.90/oz
giving you a loss of --------
-$ 27.50/oz
on the gold portion of your GSR+S trade or ( $2,750.00 ) ( loss ) on 100 oz contract.

You bgt silver @ -$6.017/oz
and sold silver @ +$6.957/oz
giving you a profit of -------------
on the silver side of your GSR+S trade or +$4,700.00 ( gain ) on the 5000 oz contract. Thus you have a net profit of $4,700.00 - $2,750.00 or $1,950.00 ( gain ) . So a decline in the ratio from 51.75 to 48.71 produced a return of 78% on your original investment.
You'll also notice that the actual prices of gold and silver didn't have to move that much in order to produce your profit.

PRINCIPLE ONE: As precious metals rise sharply ( 25% or more ) , silver prices rise faster than gold and the gold/silver ratio will narrow.
REASON: Investors are attracted to the more highly leveraged, lower priced silver when they want to get in on a PM move. Furthermore, the silver market is much thinner than gold, since silver prduction and consumption is dominated by the US. whereas gold is produced and sought after worldwide. This thinness-ie-a restricted supply and more localized demand adds to silvers volatility.

PRINCIPLE TWO: As PM's prices fall sharply ( 25% or more ) , silver prices fall faster than gold.
REASON: Often, falling PM prices occur during a recession. Silver has considerably more industrial uses than gold. Demand for silver falls sharply during a recession ( more so than gold ) . Furthermore, the above mentioned thinness exacerbates silver's fall in a period of declining PM prices.

PRINCIPLE THREE: Under normal conditions, the traditional gold/silver ratio of between 34 to 1 and 38 to 1 prevails.
REASON: This ratio is accepted as underlying the relative values of gold and silver during normal periods. By normal we mean times when inflation is contained and there are no major political or economic crises underway.

The above are excerpts from Hume & Associates. It is in no way complete and would advise anyone considering trading the GSR trade to obtain the full manual from Hume and Associates.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 13:56 - ID#373403)
I do not ever remember a gold chart going steadily up like this. It always seems to hug a number and then jerk up and down and then estabish around a new number. Does this mean anything?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 13:56 - ID#269409)
@ RJ / Quixotic....Platinum Proofs vs. BU (1997)
No one is going to be selling the 1997 Platinum PROOF sets at $900 or even $1900. As I mentioned to RJ last August on this forum, the release price of $1350, and ultra low 8000 "set mintage" made the sets a "sure thing" for a huge Numismatic rise in value. That's why my entire ( smallish ) stake in Platinum went into the Proofs and not into bullion.

That big expected rise in premium, is exactly what has happened. You can't touch one of these sets now under 2K, which means they have gone up 48% during a time when Platinum has remained flat and even lost ground. Not bad! Better than even my best expectations.

I bought 22 of these sets initially and remember the derisive comments here as to why I was paying such a high "premium" over Platinum bullion prices. Sometimes one must look at the bigger picture, and Numismatic opportunities for big gains, do ocassionally present themselves.

As to the BU coins, the 97's have a nice premium on the Half Oz. of about $100 due to lower than expected mintage ( still not as low as the proofs ) , but the other coins carry a rather small premium. In 1998, I'm sure mintages will be higher, and we'll see little if any Numismatic premiums.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 14:00 - ID#373403)
Bloomberg says $300! Wahoo! Now if my Fidelity funds will only go back to their last $300 price level.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 14:14 - ID#298259)
help! longer current data?
This website source has changed it's format...anyone getting current prices through this source? If so can you pass along some instructions. I added shockwave-flash plugin but all screens showing outdated info.

ted butler__A
(Fri Feb 27 1998 14:17 - ID#317184)
D.A.'s posts - warehouse stocks


Thanks for the fantastic info - I feel indebted. Armstrong leaves me dumbfounded.

All - not that it matters that much, but I think there is a little confusion between eligible and registered stocks. I'm pretty sure registered is what can be delivered, and eligible can be turned into registered with some paperwork. The important number is the total. I think the real important number is the one D.A. refers to in terms of availability and quality.

ted butler__A
(Fri Feb 27 1998 14:18 - ID#317184)
D.A.'s posts - warehouse stocks


Thanks for the fantastic info - I feel indebted. Armstrong leaves me dumbfounded.

All - not that it matters that much, but I think there is a little confusion between eligible and registered stocks. I'm pretty sure registered is what can be delivered, and eligible can be turned into registered with some paperwork. The important number is the total. I think the real important number is the one D.A. refers to in terms of availability and quality.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 14:21 - ID#287338)
Its gonna be a great weekend!
That's it Boys! Ring out those wet shorts! Squeeeeeez!

GO GOLD!!!! APRIL NOW $300.1 Less than 10 minutes left to place your bets for Mondays opening.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 14:22 - ID#316232)
Hume method
Any time you use such a simple technique as the Hume method, you are asking for an exception to bite you in the a... Following such a method would have bankrupted even Warren Buffett as the ratio took years to reach 100 when silver reached 3.50 several years ago.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 14:25 - ID#342376)
so here's THE big question....
If a bull market in gold has started, and there is a "correction" in the next few weeks or months, will Gold Stocks tumble with it? I lean towards no but would appreciate any comments.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 14:28 - ID#342376)
previous post..
A "correction" in the Stock Markets, that is , not Gold.

Trader Vic
(Fri Feb 27 1998 14:29 - ID#372363)
Gold Technicals
Just looked at the technicals on gold and they are looking better every day. Gold is now above it's 50 day moving avg., it is forming a head and shoulders bottom and the low's on each dip are higher. Not to mention the fundimentals...higher lease rates and a change in concenses by the european central banks...add to that the move in silver, as it marches ever so high...and I would say that you have a start of a nice bull market in the metals...only time will tell...I don't want to get too far ahead, as you know, there are ominous forces at work out there.

Strad Master
(Fri Feb 27 1998 14:32 - ID#250297)
LGB: Since they are not my main focus, how do you get wind of those low mintage numismatic proof sets when then first come down the pike? If ever I were run into some disposable cash they sound like a good place to park a little bit of it for the long run.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 14:45 - ID#287338)
Looks like a close of April $299.90. Those shorts play dirty, because about 90 secs. before close it was $300.40.

Have a good weekend!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 14:53 - ID#345176)
@ crazytimes

It all depends on the upward momentum of gold, vs. the downward momentum of the stock market.

With a strong upward momentum in gold and an erroding but NOT crashing stock market, I expect gold stocks to be in phase with gold, but not in the same upmove percentage due to a weak market.

If the stock market went sideways, then gold stocks will outperform the bullion by at least 2X.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 14:56 - ID#242249)
The Euro Dollar Pros & Cons
Single Currency - Pros and Cons.

From BBC.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 15:01 - ID#242249)
Alan begin to talk plain english!
Bank runs have reach crisis in


WASHINGTON, Feb 27 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan

offered a bleak assessment on Friday of the financial crisis gripping Asia, warning

that bank runs had reached crisis proportions in Indonesia.

``In an environment of weak financial systems, lax supervisory regimes, and vague

guarantees about depositor or creditor protections, bank runs have occurred in

several countries and reached crisis proportions in Indonesia,'' Greenspan told a

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta conference in Miami Beach, Florida.

``Uncertainty and retrenchment have escalated. The state of confidence so

necessary to the functioning of any economy has been torn asunder,'' he said.

``Some exchange rates have fallen to levels that are understandable only in the

context of a veritable collapse of confidence in the functioning of an economy.''

But Greenspan held out hope of recovery if Asia's hardest-hit nations reform their

ways and the international community continues to offer support.

``Eventually, the Asian economies now suffering from the current crisis will

recover,'' Greenspan said. ``If the proper policies are pursued and there is support

from the international community, the process of recovery can begin soon and the

structural reforms necessary for more durable growth will be underway.''

Greenspan also said the global financial system was in need of reform.

``I believe that what is being referred to as the architecture of the international

financial system will need to be thoroughly reviewed and altered as necessary to fit

the needs of the new global environment,'' Greenspan said.

Without specifically mentioning the International Monetary Fund, Greenspan said

institutions working to contain Asia's financial crisis should be supported.

The Clinton administration has asked Congress to approve about $18 billion in

additional funds for the IMF to replenish resources drained by 1997s

multibillion-dollar bailouts for Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand.

A text of Greenspan's speech was released in advance in Washington.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 15:05 - ID#242249)
Dealers talk of possible turn-arounds in sentiment towards Gold
Gold and silver firmer through Europe.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 15:24 - ID#411149)
Well here we go again, everytime we get something to talk about
Kitco goes kapup. The home page won't up the gold price and I thought
it wasn't goin to let me into the discussion group. Is this a goood sign?

crazytimes- the whold world issa used to owin stocks, when they
don't want to own the microsofts and intels and turn to gold shares
the party really begins and that will probably be in a down market
for the BOW WOW DOW. In other words I think a crash will be good for us
although there may be an initial liquity problem and we go down
a bit. The market of gold stocks is really small, I heard someone
say maybe half the value of Exxox for all the stocks.

Tally Ho

(Fri Feb 27 1998 15:29 - ID#298259)
Canarc Resource Corp. Shares Purchased by Minorca

(Fri Feb 27 1998 15:31 - ID#411149)
Go here iffin you want to see all GREEN for the gold stocks with
DD up 17%

Tally Ho
PS- my new orleans friend jest called and said DD $50 in 2 years and $125
in three looks more likely after today's action.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 15:32 - ID#345176)
@ Ray

The N. American gold stock cap is less than $30 billion US.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 15:34 - ID#345176)
@ Ray
In your previous post what is DD? Is it Du Pont ticker symbol ( DD ) ?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 15:36 - ID#222231)
My Dear L_A, Everything is relative. Most people would be out of the trade before it reached that extreme. ( Who says you win every time. ) That,IMHO, is a one time abberation. History does and will eventually repeat itself. The ratio may not go to those levels quoted in the manual for quite awhile, but you can see the ratio narrowing right now. I did not mean for anyone to use this system, but to think about the ratio. Do you believe that gold will go to $100.00/oz or $190.00/oz as some have feared? If silver goes up, the odds for gold going up are better than 50-50. Try and use the principles to forcast.

Just before WB the ratio was 70 to 1 +/-. The ratio is currently 50 to 1 +/- and seems to be narrowing further. They say silver usually moves higher than gold in the beginning. Is'nt that what is happening now?

Besides, with a spread, the risk is limited and not as severe relative to going either gold short or long, or silver long or short separately.

I do appreciate your comments, but it is an alternative to the high risk related to pure, naked futures.

Bill Buckler
(Fri Feb 27 1998 15:37 - ID#256381)
Gold above $300 - MA below $300
At $300.10 ( the price from CBS ) Gold has ended the week above its 20 week MA for only the second time since early 1996. Also that 20 week MA is below $300 for the first time since 1979. At a preliminary calculation, I have the 20 week MA at about $298.70.

I also notice on CBS data that the long bond went just above the 6.00% level intra-day before closing at 5.918%. Big rescue act here. A climbing $US Gold price along with a climbing long bond yield is a lethal combination, if you happen to like paper money, that is.

Looks like we have rising support levels for Gold - first $280 and now $290. Also looks like the $300 barrier is under attack.

It's 6:30 AM here. Off to write the Gold commentary and put the charts up. As I said in my last post - next week looks even more likely to be VERY interesting.

Speaking of "very interesting" - read the 12:03 post from DA

(Fri Feb 27 1998 15:37 - ID#246224)
Ted Butler & All re: registered vs eligible
Registered is basicly storage. Its there but not for sale.
Eligible is as it sounds, up for sale.

To my thinking the diffence is worth noting. Yesterday's 'rise' in gold COMEX numbers masked a draw down in eligible ounces ( 25,000 less ) . So what we have is a situation where 25,000 oz eligible was removed and put into registered and some 40,000 oz added to registered. In the past we have seen Registered pumped up around this time when First Day Notice arrives. Inevitablely the eligible stores are reduced after delivers are made from eligible stores.After the deliveries have happened someone takes their eligibles out as well.

A simple explaination is that a few of those who might need to deliver metal are moving some bullion into the warehouse just in case they have to deliver it. But there are always deliveries, more or less, and so the eligible metal stores is being depleted. My question is who is moving metal into and then out of Registered stores. Does anyone know how this works? Arden, DA???

(Fri Feb 27 1998 15:37 - ID#345176)
@ Ray
I figured it out, Durban Deep. Sorry, I was not familiar with SA stocks.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 15:39 - ID#342282)
Preacher re chas & question
Preacher, I put too much into my response to your interesting post. Let me regroup and I'll post back to you. My email is messed up again, so I'll have to post, but if you give me your email I'll try it. Thanx again. chas

(Fri Feb 27 1998 15:40 - ID#341189)
Ditch the dollar in SE Asia? BBC report:
World: S/W Asia

Finance ministers discuss
ditching dollar

Future trade between south-east Asian nations may be in local currency

Finance ministers in south-east Asia are to discuss a
plan to ditch the dollar for some export trade.

The plan will be put forward at a meeting of the
Association of South-East Asian Nations ( Asean ) when
they discuss the economic crisis that has swept through
the region.

The summit comes as President Bill Clinton gave his
special envoy a broad mandate for his weekend trip to

High on the agenda is the plan to start using local
currencies for trade between Asean countries instead of
the US dollar.

Banks would have role

The proposal to use local currencies to settle trade
within the region came about because of the sharp fall of
regional currencies against the dollar.

Such a scheme could help reduce the region's
dependence on the dollar and so help revive weak Asian

For most of the last 50 years, south-east Asian nations
have used the US dollar as their base for export trade
even with other Asean members.

It has been suggested that the regional central banks
would act as clearing houses for trade payments and
would offset each others' receivables and pay the
difference in dollars.

Analysts say that if such a system is adopted, it would
be unlikely to have an immediate impact but would help
regional integration in the longer term.

The Asean group of nations comprises Brunei,
Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Burma, the Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Finance ministers will also exchange views on the
economic crisis and explore measures taken to help
restore confidence.

US envoy in Indonesia

The US envoy Walter Mondale will arrive in Jakarta at the
weekend with a brief from President Clinton enabling him
to talk on political and economic issues.

White House spokesman Joe Lockhart said: "He's going
there to encourage both economic and political reforms
to help deal with the economic crisis."

The crisis began last year when Thailand's currency, the
baht, plunged after the government allowed it to

Other currencies in the region followed, plunging financial
markets into turmoil and some countries into near

(Fri Feb 27 1998 15:45 - ID#20748)
No names from Yahoo, but we have D.A.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 15:54 - ID#269409)
@ Strad...Numismatic buys
While I'd like to be helpful in the Numismatic recommendations, the "Proof" Platinum was a rather rare opportunity. This is because it's a first year of issue, first Platinum legal tender U.S. coin, first $100 denom. U.S. coin, first coin whose authorization was via secretary of Treasury instead of congress, first coin with "$" sign as part of inscription, first proof series that'll have new reverse design each year, ( not true for the bullion Platinum's just the Proofs ) .....and then of great importance, extremely low mintages. ( 18,000 total; for the Half Oz. for example )

I caught wind of it because the U.S. mint was loudly advertising in the hobby pubs last summer, but most did not become interested until it was too late to buy.

I don't want to mislead anyone, the vast majority of U.S. mint offerings are real dogs. Standard proof sets issued in the millions each year for example, almost always drop in value, substantially so, and there's no ready liquid secondary market other than dealers who are paying wholesale and selling retail.

My recommendations in Numismatic coins right now for "investment" and "gain" purposes, would be pre 1933 $20 face St. Gaudens Gold coins, ( brilliant uncirculated ) , and some of the earlier U.S. 90% silver coins that can currently be purcahsed for barely abobe spot silver price ( Mercury dimes, Walking Liberty Halves, Morgan silver dollars )

Numismatic silver coin provides a "collector value" floor, whereas Numismatic Gold provides mild leverage in an up Gold market AND a Numismatic floor.

Hate to wander, but as to the 1998 Platinum Proof sets, my guess is that seeing the success of the program, the U.S. mint will issue them in much higher mintages, thus they won't escalate in value.

Charles Keeling
(Fri Feb 27 1998 15:56 - ID#344225)
Thanks for the post on CANARC shares
which were purchased by MINORCA. I own
a good chunk of CANARC.

major share holders, and they are in JV with
PDG and two other majors.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 16:07 - ID#341189)
S&P lowers Malaysian Bank ratings - increasing NPL's

(Fri Feb 27 1998 16:16 - ID#269409)
@ Bart....Kaplan?
How's come you dumped Kaplan from your front page links? He consistently gave very valuable insider insights into the workings of the metals markets....

(Fri Feb 27 1998 16:18 - ID#269409)
@ Tolerant....SSC vs. FSR
SSC...closed unchanged. FSR....closed down .74%...

(Fri Feb 27 1998 16:25 - ID#410198)
LGB Good post all US mint stuff usually takes a beating

(Fri Feb 27 1998 16:37 - ID#246224)
The US Dollar being supplanted (longwinded, tedious post about bond rates)
When the Asian nations begin to recognize the effect of one currency being the denominator for ALL trade, and when they see that currency as an evil that could possibly be dethroned, then you have a REAL SITUATION on your hands.

The only thing which keeps the US Dollar preemminent is other nations willingness to use it. When they begin to see it as counter productive to their long range interests then they will move to establish other currencies to use for trade ( economic mutlilateralism if you will ) . Europe has been moving toward this and now Asia will. In Asia they do not have a political swamp to negotiate and they certainly have motivation. I believe we will see an Asian alternative very soon, much sooner than the Euro. A big chunk of Asia's trade is inter-asian trade. ( This interestingly is the rational for Europe's Euro - to smooth internal EC trade. )

An analogy I think of regarding markets is air pressure in a leaky balloon. This analogy works just as well for currency markets as well as equities or bonds. The air pushing into the balloon is 'buying' which increases demand for the medium, in this case Dollars. The leaks are 'selling' as Dollars are traded to other things. The size of the US$ currency balloon now stands at US$30,000,000,000,000. That is the volume of the balloon ( combined personal, corporate and governmental debt-currency outstanding ) . This balloon has been extended to this size because of the 'reserve currency' and 'trading' monopoly status which the US$ has enjoyed for 45 years. The pressure within the balloon can be measured by the US$ Bond rate.

If the Asians decide to create an alternative to the US$ and use it for inter-asian trade what would the result be??? The US$ balloon will shrink in direct relationship to the amount of US$'s which would be moved into the new Asian trading 'basket'-currency.

As this redemption occures the US$ bond rate will, by necessity, rise in an effort to retain the capital which is purposely walking away. In the case of the Asian parties we would not see them dropping their intentions since they are intent on establishing a localized system which will help them supplant the US$ dominance in their region. So US$ bond rates will rise to attract capital from other markets. Those markets will also feel the pinch and all world-wide bond rates would rise as well. This may possibly hasten the Euro adoption as the Europeans would want to cash in US$ in the same general time frame as the Asians and not get trapped.

The problem of world wide rising bond rates is that weak borrowers will become weaker, the economies they rely upon for their business will become weaker and so debtor bankrupcies will escalate. I'm sure the Asians could care less since they are already there and are looking for a way to place a bottom on their down hill bobsled ride.

In the USA this means increased uncertainty, higher cost of money, slow downs in business investment via borrowing and increases in bankrupcies. The bond markets are THE barometer and control mechanism for economies and finance. Our current economic situation is a direct result of recent bond rate history ( past 7-8 years? ) . If bonds move higher and sustain at those levels then the economy will mysteriously begin to cool off in a big way. The once robust miracle economy will become a 'bust' economy. Why? Because modern business requires vast borrowing to support its methods. If that borrowing costs to much then things turn sour.

This, to my mind, is why talking about 'strong economies' as an evidence of the economic might of a nation is like driving a car by looking in the rear view mirror. The reason an economy is strong, particularly an economy which is overly dependent on debt, is because bond rates have been relatively low for a pretty good period of time. Borrowing was easy because it didn't place to large a burden on the business or economy. Once bonds rise and remain higher then you are sunk.

I'm getting my life raft out. And its color is .. GOLD!!!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 16:59 - ID#201238)
Allen - eligible vs registered
Allen - my understanding is that the eligible gold stocks are like covered calls on a stock - the seller has the product as opposed to the 99 per cent of the outstanding contracts on comex which are like naked calls! A dangerous game to play. True, some of the owners of registered gold on comex could have outstanding 'naked' contracts but still it is not enough!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 17:01 - ID#411259)
..... Strong Close .....

I like the close on silver today. About 9K contracts rolled into May yesterday, along with some new longs, leaving 6K contracts for today. I doubt there will be enough delivery demands on the remaining contracts to drastically lower available supplies. I didn't buy an ounce at 6.01, but I started buying with both hands at the close yesterday. Expect steadily higher silver price rather than the explosive moves we've seen. The end of March should find us flirting with the highs or settling into new highs.

D.A. -

True that COMEX silver is not of a proper purity to STORE in London, but COMEX deliveries happen through London all the time. That is where a lot of these numbers have gone. I guess I am speaking of COMEX deliveries being cleared through London. As for the rest, you have been a fountain of useful info, Thanks.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 17:03 - ID#288295)
LGB @ Kaplan

He's on vacation for a couple weeks and is moving his site to another location

(Fri Feb 27 1998 17:04 - ID#341189)
Greenspan and others warning - IMF funding spin or sweaty palms?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 17:10 - ID#233199)
Sony Pension Funds to move ?

Can anyone here comment on the announcement that Sony ( Japan ) pension funds now have new rules about foreighn managment or investments?

I only caught a bit of that news but it seems it may be significnat to dollar flows in the area. I hear the news reported 1/26/98.

.....and did the Solar Eclipse mark the death of the Golden Bear?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 17:12 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.60 ( Last Friday the reading was 28.31 )

(Fri Feb 27 1998 17:13 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .252 ( Last Friday the reading was .239 )

(Fri Feb 27 1998 17:14 - ID#256254)

Date: Fri Feb 27 1998 16:59
arden ( Allen - eligible vs registered ) ID#201238:

Arden, 130,307 ounces doesn't seem like very much gold ( roughtly walk up with $43million and its gone not much money ) .

Is this a record low of eligible gold for delivery ? Is the ratio to eligible to contracts traded at an extreme?

I am getting the feeling that the majority of comex traders don't ever think about taking delivery. As eligible stocks go to zero, what will they do???? At the moment they still have no fear. Seems like they are willing just to trade paper even if it isn't backed by bulion. We seem to getting close to the day when no spot price for gold will be quoted...


I must take a new approach.

I am now offering a reward to anyone that can bring me a 1992 to 1998 Islamic golden Dinar. I will give them 10 plump chickens the moment they present the Dinar to me. I may be talked into giving one checken just for the information on where I can purchase an Islamic golden Dinar.


(Fri Feb 27 1998 17:15 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 46.05 ( Last Friday the reading was 45.75 )

(Fri Feb 27 1998 17:18 - ID#26793)
@A. Goose
I received my 900 year old gold dinar in the mail today. I am very pleased with it.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 17:22 - ID#341189)
@SWP1 - Here's Sony news

(Fri Feb 27 1998 17:22 - ID#201238)

So you are offering a chicken dinar?

The eligibile gold stocks are very close to new lows, I think we saw the 120's a few weeks back. I haven't kept up the ratios on a daily basis - to me its blatantly obvious where we are heading - that is why we are putting so much enrgy into our company. Thanks for visiting our website.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 17:23 - ID#286250)
Fiscal PRUDENCE?? oh good heavens what are they thinking about...spend! faster! spend!{:-)))
Hong Kong Standard Sat 28 Feb 1998
No tax cuts in modest Singapore budget

Singapore, Hong Kong's rival to be the region's financial centre,
on Friday unveiled a budget projecting a modest surplus of
S$2.7 billion ( HK$13 billion ) for 1998, down from S$5.09 billion last
year. Moreover, the budget, announced by Finance Minister Rafael
Hu, granted none of the expected across-the-board tax cuts. Instead, it stressed fiscal prudence, a government watchword in the face of Asia's economic woes.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 17:26 - ID#286250)
I gather this means you'll be hosting the gala chicken dinner ( as yours may be the only pot that holds one? {:- )

(Fri Feb 27 1998 17:38 - ID#341189)
I just found your suggestion ( 14:16, Feb 25 ) . I've been changing over my modem, browser and ISP, so have been missing a lot lately. Interesting suggestion. Gold of course would be an obvious choice in which to track criticals; it would probably produce long term patterns, although of super importance - like the Dow priced in gold. My guess is that it would show just about any food stuff as being the cheapest in history for example. I must think through the notion of an index which penetrates the veil of the money changers and the SDRer's ( not you ) .

(Fri Feb 27 1998 17:44 - ID#256254)
Date: Fri Feb 27 1998 17:18
Donald__A ( @A. Goose ) ID#26793:

Awesome Donald, may I ask where you purchased it?

Arden, the way I spell I am sure you will see chicken dinar before it is over. I am trying to figure if comex is giving us an indication that the game is almost up. That is why I was asking. The would seem to be some point at which gold contract trading actually detach themselves from their underlying bullion. Is it 200,000 ounces, 100,000.... But when everyone realizes that you can NO longer take delivery, then it would seem YOU NO longer have a daily gold bullion SPOT QUOTE.

Gold will still trade, but its price will be set in a much more careful way.

Got to run. Liked your site, keep up the good work.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 17:47 - ID#393224)
Nice to wake up to!!!
I would just like to thank all the Kitcoites who drove the price of precious up last night. As I sunk a helluva lot of $$ into pm shares in the past week, I am now going to exhale!!

Lurker 777
(Fri Feb 27 1998 17:54 - ID#317247)
You the man! GREAT CALL on silver up $.34! Should of bought more but who's complaining. Ya snooze ya lose. Thanks for your help. Sure is nice to be on the RIGHT side of a trade. Now how about that Rhodium?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 18:04 - ID#342282)
Preacher re "outside day"
What you describe as an outside day in your post describes the price action of the dow on a selling climax. I was jumping tracks here because the same motivation is apparently behind both, humans trading. The scenario you describe for gold can be analysed to some degree, which you have done. My question is, how did you arrive at your distinction of an "outside" day and the "inside" day. Was it a personal observation or was it base on some other concept? It sounds like you have hit on an appropriate method. Many thanx. email here still out.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 18:08 - ID#316232)
Hume's technique

Sorry if I came across criticizing the relationship because I also use the gold /silver ratio. I assumed that Hume's trading method would be to analyze the ratio and make a trade. If this was done every 2-3 months shorting gold or silver and buying the other, they would have almost all been losers since 1985 since the ratio hasn't been as low as 34 since then. That is assuming that a winning closeout would be done at that value. Most committments would have expired or closed at a loss.

If the top and bottom values ( 38,34 ) were flexible, then a careful investor might be able to adjust his range as the ratio made its long term advance toward 100. This high ratio was primarily due to a relatively low value of silver. In any case, he could have done very well on the way down unless he closed himself out early each time.

My comment was that a single relationship is not enough to produce good trading results over a long period of time. There are usually too many exceptions.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 18:10 - ID#333232)
in search of...
My quest for a 1992 to 1998 Gold Dinar has begun in earnest. Lets hope it's not just ANOTHER golden fleece. ; )

Off to the casino... They've a slot which pays 1oz .9999 bullion coins!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 18:20 - ID#316232)
Bond Rate change

Having checked out your Privateer page, I noticed your comment about the 20wk ave near 298 and concur that we are obviously near a breakout. As soon as I got both feet in today, the long term bond rate dropped from a high of 5.995% to 5.918% in two hours as if someone in higher places wanted to push the rate down for the weekend. That made me pause.

I think that early Monday in the Far East should tell us what the real market thinks, before the Fed can get involved.

Lurker 777
(Fri Feb 27 1998 18:45 - ID#317247)
Comex deliveries & Tylor Rose
Tylor Rose: Please keep us updated on your Comex delivery status. I have a April 300 call option I am thinking about taking delivery of. How much more does it cost to take delivery? i.e.: Shipping, insurance, hidden cost, etc.? I received a fax from Comex and it states 995% pure and 100oz. or +- 5% in weight for good delivery. Is your bar 999% and a little over 100oz.? Only problem I am having is finding a buyer.

Updated @ 5:20 p.m. EST, Friday, February 27, 1998.
Gold Mining Outlook Steven Jon Kaplan at:

COMEX gold warehouse stocks were unchanged at 480,910 ounces, while COMEX silver warehouse stocks rose by 534,177 ounces to 90,095,264 ounces. Implied gold lease rates are 2.15% for one month and 2.00% for one year. Such an inverted condition demonstrates that short-selling speculators are more eager to borrow the metal than producers are eager to lock in current prices for future output, a classically bullish indicator.

Mr. Mick
(Fri Feb 27 1998 18:46 - ID#345321)
USAgold's page not responding to search engine.............
is anyone else having this problem? What was on the quote today?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 18:59 - ID#256254)
0 177,196 36,531,320
534,177 -177,196 53,563,944
534,177 0 90,095,264

350,603 0 0 0 0 350,603
130,307 0 0 0 0 130,307
480,910 0 0 0 0 480,910

( my comments )
130,307 * 298.85 = $38,942,246.95. Just think how many individuals in this country at this time could close out this market with no effort. From Bill Gates,..., Michael Dell, Steve Jobs, ..., the list seems endless just naming technology 100 millionaires alone. Add to the indivuals, groups of investors plain old millionaires .... Comex gold is on sale, cheap compared with Warren paid for his silver.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 19:02 - ID#348129)
ECU CB News (good) - I beleive this will be the story driving Gold in 1998
French central bank governor Jean-Claude Trichet, who is one of the leading contenders to be the first governor of the new European Central Bank ( ECB ) , made unequivocally bullish comments about gold in an interview with Central Banking magazine. "We have no intention of selling any gold, or in any way downplaying the role of gold as a reserve asset. Gold is a very important element in the credibility of the currency in the eyes of our people. It is one of the elements on which confidence in the currency is based, particularly in the eyes of public opinion. It is often viewed as the ultimate reference asset."

(Fri Feb 27 1998 19:37 - ID#372344)
Heard on the Street....Gold....US$....Iraq... SE Asia...
Alot of second opinions now about the "deal" with Iraq, spin trying to
put the best face saving BUT US is looking very weak, impotent and Japan is getting mouthy, resisting US efforts ,Yen up another 1+ Yen again today, and no coincidence Gold's up $4+, and much more to go....
BTW interesting "tid bit" Iraq is the only country in the world that can
increase it's OIL production from 3 Mill to up to 12 Mill easily, hence the
LARGE amount of attention by the US.....US GDP growth fastest in
10 years, US market making new highs....Can higher Interest rates be far behind?..... I can remember, as I previously posted, back in the 70's when both the DOW and Gold were going up together at the same time,
however, unlike some here I look for Gold to continue to move up
when the US markets cracks, just as in the 70's.....BTW only something
like 12 Dow stocks are responsible for the current Dow rise, many
stocks not making new highs....Indonesia is in BIG trouble, more riots
and the US has threatened tonite to withhold all IMF funds if Suharto
does not cancel his, his family's, and cronies pet $ projects, FAT chance!
Trouble definitely ahead, just heard tonite that Indonesia may be crossing
the line of social and political unrest, even new appointee W. Mondale
has been dispatched tonite to "work matters" and AG has tonite called
it a SE Asian "CRISIS"....harsh words for even for AG....
interesting upcoming week, to say the least....

stay tuned....

(Fri Feb 27 1998 19:46 - ID#42365)
Descrepencies?? what happened to the silver graph?
This morning wasnt silver bouncing violently? then looking back on the day it looks totally different??? anyone???

(Fri Feb 27 1998 19:48 - ID#42365)
even this guy noticed? did anyone else see it?
Date: Fri Feb 27 1998 09:16
BillD ( silver bouncing around ) ID#258427:
look at the kitco graph

Bill Buckler
(Fri Feb 27 1998 19:50 - ID#256381)
US Long Bond and Gold
larryn_a 18:20. The data on CBS show that the long bond yield spiked as high as 6.011% before it dived to close at 5.918%. Haven't seen any reasons put forward for this. No one is claiming an Asian sell-off.

With Saddam off the front pages, Mr Mondale has flown off to Indonesia to attempt to get Mr Soeharto to straighten up and fly right. Meanwhile, on the Hill, all efforts are being made to get Congress to cough up the $18 Billion for the IMF.

Another possible indicator for Gold, local Aussie radio reported that the Aussie Dollar had spiked up to 67.9 cents US. Next week will be very important. Gold has regained $US 300 ( my data provider says $300.10 on the close ) . Now, we shall see if it can STAY there this time.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 19:51 - ID#372344)
@ AG "CRISIS" in Indonesia

(Fri Feb 27 1998 19:52 - ID#233181)
Canyon Resources:
The company has hired MRDI of Canada to assist in the production of a DEIS report. Does anyone know of this engineering firm and what their reputation has been. Thanks in advance for thoughts...


(Fri Feb 27 1998 19:58 - ID#42365)
ok so whats the deal? compare this graph with the current silver one.
These are both from today which is real? found this mornings graph in my cache, so i know I aint crazy...

(Fri Feb 27 1998 19:59 - ID#222231)
My Dear Larryn_A, You are right and I agree with your case. I did say that this was written in 1985.

We knew not too long ago, ( or should have known ) , before WB, that silver's fundamentals were ideal for this type of trade. ( silver stocks dwindling ) Gold barely moved and silver was inching up slowly. In fact it went from $5 to $6 before WB, and after to $7.50.

If ( and, boy is that a big word ) we had sold 1 gold contract, when we closed the position the loss or gain would have been negliable because gold barely moved, in fact it went down.

If we had bgt 1 silver contract at $5 and closed it when it reached $6.50, the gain would have been $1.50 times 5000 or $7,500.

All of the above figures are approximate and just used for an example.

If you want to discuss this or anything else e-mail me at I'm really getting lonely and need someone to talk with.

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:01 - ID#26395)

To All: We've just added platinum and palladium lease rates to our daily data diet. They're at and can be viewed in "full text" mode for free.

To Skip: Did it work? Did you skip over this post?. We're working on a survey that'll be ready next week. That, and any other reasonable suggestions will be asked to the group so we can see what might work and what won't. Thanks.

LGB: Kaplan's site is a good one, but I wanted a page devoted to hard breaking news. The page, does this. We used to have his and a few other updating opinions there. They've been taken off, but we may devote a whole page on its own to those types of links.

Lurker777 - Re: Rhodium. Send an email or call. You'll find our phone number somewhere near our disclaimer.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:05 - ID#42365)
graphs... well maybe one is zoomed out further dunno?
the graph cant resolve that much activity zoomed out?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:06 - ID#261269)
G-Nutz....rom "This Guy" silver graphs
The most recent graph is using a different scale that "smooths-out" the blips that we all saw on the earlier graph. I've seen this before on the kitco graphs ...just a scale change that sure presents a different picture, eh?...

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:11 - ID#252150)
Just watched some clown by the name of Cochrane on PBS
I don't know where Kangas finds these guys. Cochrane is apparently a mkt timer & he expects inflation to heat up & derail the mkt. Besides that
he's worried about the Asian effect on Co earnings. When Kangas asked him if lower Co earnings would'nt dampen inflation, he looked kind of stunned.
This guy expects the long bond to get to 7% by year end, I think it will be closer to 5.5%, which is why I have a problem seeing much higher AU prices. My reasoning is that Japan is fu*ked. Rubin & his henchmen can rant & rave all they want to no avail. I mentioned here before that my daughter-in-law is Japanese, so have some understanding of the Japanese psyche. The Japanese don't really like to consume like N. Americans. Even if they did they are constrained by the tiny apartments they inhabit. The average Japanese family of 4 lives in approx 800 sq ft. Besides it is well known that the Japanese prefer minimalism. They don't want a bunch of clutter in their lives like Joe 6-pack. They have no compulsion to scream around on ski-doos & sea-doos. They also have terrible demographics. There is no way Japan is going to consume it's way out of their deflationary funk. Then they have the incredible amount of bad bank loans to SEasian Countries in which they will be lucky to get pennies on the $. There is no way that the JY should strengthen against the U.S.$ If not for jaw-boning , it would be 135 right now. Eventually I think it will get to $U.S.140+. And then we have EMU which will happen on schedule despite Jim Rogers. It will be a very weak currency, because desperation will set in & they will need to take whatever measures necessary to alleviate hi unemployment. When the unemployed start occupying stock exchanges, you know it's serious.

In short I see no serious alternative currency to the U.S.$, and as we all know, this does'nt bode well for AU. Having said that, I am back in ABX as of today, but I don't think AU can get above 320 & stay there for any length of time in the next year.

I invite any criticism or comments.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:12 - ID#261269)
More on scale changes...

the first graph had the left scale ( y-axis ) from 580 to 655

the second graph had the left scale from 470 to 680

Just goes to show what one can do with "figgers", eh!!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:14 - ID#222231)
ALL-DOW & Interest Rates. What would happen to Gold?
Has anyone else noticed the similarity between 1987 and now? If my brain cells are not decieving me the DOW was making new highs day after day and everyone was extremely bullish. Then interest rates started moving up to the point ( I believe 7%? ) and the markets started tanking. A slow movement on interest rates might be an indicator to watch for and play the market accordingly. If anyone else has any thoughts on this, I would appreciate your input.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:16 - ID#26793)
@A. Goose
I will tell you where I bought the 900 year old dinar but don't want to break Bart's rule on advertising. E.mail me:

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:16 - ID#261269) could add that ...that guy...recommended buying gold
stox...most especially Newmont...he was bullish on gold and bearish on the DOW...said the DOW and SnP was represented by only a few stox that were breath....kinda made sense to me!!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:22 - ID#288295)
Pete @ Merrill Lynch
Thanks a tonne for the directions to the piece on Merrill this morning. I have to hop in and out of the forum during the day and didn't get a chance to thank you earlier.......I hope the ( short ) bastards fry next week; they sure did get something to think about over the weekend, didn't they! Can't wait 'til the COMEX numbers come out overnite.....Silverbaronbuyinggoldthisweekend

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:24 - ID#42365)
Yo "this guy" (BillD) heh.
well it does seem logical, but doesnt reflect true activity i guess. Ya know the real picture.. like one of someone dumping silver.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:35 - ID#342282)
Gold panning & prospecting
One more time. Anybody interested in outdoor recreation can get into panning and prospecting for gold. I saw a feature on outdoor channel and the outfit, GPA Gold prospectors association, had a fellow named Tom Massie showing how to pan. I have been at it for 40 years and i can say he was good. If interested, call 800 233 2207 and ask for Tom Massie or Jake Hartwick. They have properties all over the country- Maine to Ca. You can go to the nearest and keep all you get. Good luck

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:35 - ID#252150)
Bill D@ Yeah his call on Pegasus was a real winner
It always makes me uneasy when turkeys like him are calling for a higher

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:39 - ID#261269)
Be' fair
He did call badly on pagasus...but he recommended mutual funds so that one was not so exposed to individual dogs....'course even mutual funds like FSAGX, etc...have not done so well either...

ps...I appreciate your analysis of the Japanese psyche...I agree, but think they will dump bonds and drive rates up ... along with all the other factors....oh well....

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:42 - ID#31868)
For, me, the, is , unto the abyss, privilege, I am not all that, you folks are so much, and I thank you for the time that I learn from all of you.

I am that which sits upon the pond and perhaps sinks, but I can dream because of all of you simply are...

Thank you.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:48 - ID#26793)
Korean bankruptcies reach 3,323 in January

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:48 - ID#261269)

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:52 - ID#368244)
Gloom Despair and misery
What to do with 100 April, 310 calls and 100 APRIL 320 CALLS. My End of Feb. gold prediction seems so close but yet so far away, what happened 320? BETTER HURRAY!

Farfel, I need help, boomshockaloka----

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:53 - ID#183109)
Kaplan is back!!! Nice timing.... :)

Gold Mining Outlook

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:56 - ID#26793)
Russia is hurting from plunging oil prices. Selling at $11.60 per bbl.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:56 - ID#243180)
Judah Krashaar on Wall Street Week just admitted that most banks are ready if
not almost ready for Y2K,,,,, finally someone telling the truth and not frightening the public in an effort to bolster consulting profits.....

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:57 - ID#57232)
No limit on the US National debt ceiling?
Bill Buckler: What is your take on the national debt ceiling? Could the 'powers that be' raise the national debt $1 trillion or so to bail out the European creditors et al without the American people knowing?

Even if this does not happen, I am interested to hear what you think about how the vestiges of Gramm-Rudman got circumvented.

I and many other Kitcoites - such as SpudMaster -- would be very interested in what you know.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 20:59 - ID#30116)
James, Pete
James -- The name of the game is currencies. Period. What backs fiat currency? Interest rates...

Pete -- 1987 also had a little 'tiff' between the U.S. Treasury ( FED ) and the BundesBank. Something about exchange rates, I believe... :- ) )

(Fri Feb 27 1998 21:00 - ID#26793)
Chinese dissidents form ungerground political party

(Fri Feb 27 1998 21:03 - ID#26793)
My attempt to e.mail you has been rejected twice. ???

(Fri Feb 27 1998 21:06 - ID#287129)
Strad Master (Numismatics)
I'm a virtual novice as far as numismatics are concerned. Last year my office was vandalized, and a small coin collection of pre-1964 silver dimes, quarters & halves dating back to the 1920's grew wings. My insurance carrier declined compensation because it was considered "personal property" rather than a business assett. ( Isn't it interesting how insurance companies look for a way to decline coverage? ) Nonetheless, I'm interested in knowing why there is greater leverage on numismatic gold coins because I purchased one St. Gaudens from Blanchard, which came in a sealed case with an "MS" code on it. ( It is NOT stored at my office! Once burned, then I learned. )

I've also heard that buying "numismatic" gold coins is also a good way to get burned badly if you don't know what you are doing; but others have told me that Blanchard is reputable for coins. I hope that is true. Also, is it really an "international" code of recognition if your coin is sealed in plasic with an "MS" code?


(Fri Feb 27 1998 21:08 - ID#288295)
ALL @ Kaplan


(Fri Feb 27 1998 21:17 - ID#243180)
I've dealt with Blanchard over the years. They have changed focus on 01 Jan 98 and they are now overpriced for both bullion and numismatic material. There are many reputable firms: Kitco can sell you the bullion and check their prices at this site for current quotes.

Although I have not as much experience in the technical details as many on this site I can offer my recommendations as to who I've dealt with and consider them competively priced. 2 that come to mind are: ( ask for Russ Savage ) ( ask for Hannes Tulving )

I also try to purchase grades MS64 and greater. Also U may want to pick up a copy of the "Red Book" to get mintages and basic idea of what your getting into.

There are some really great advisors on this site and I am sure that they will put ther $0.02 into the mix.

Good luck!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 21:19 - ID#243180)
Don't forget our new advertisement for USA GOld. I've not dealt with them directly but since Bart has 'em post it I'd check 'em out.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 21:20 - ID#285392)
APH what is your take on the current silver rally?
I have your previous posts on silver and on this basis anticipate a rise to your 6.30 figure +/-.50 ( $6.80 ) and then down to 5.50. Is there anything that has changed your opinion? Do you have a projected figure and time frame for the S&P/OEX. Thanks again for your help.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 21:24 - ID#257114)
Are you referring to a EIS for the McDonald Gold Project. It was supposedly expected to be published mid year, 1998. Does anyone know if there is any insider buying in CAU over the past 6 months?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 21:28 - ID#57232)
Past ElNinos linked to pestilence, revolution
All: Interesting post that describes how weather patterns drive human bahavior. There is no question that unusually stable weather tends to be beneficial to humans, and unusually unstable weather tends to be detrimental. The wetness or dryness, hot or cold conditions are also critical.

This summer crops in the US are likely to be adversely affected, partially due to bad weather, and partially due to increased parasitic infections. So - commodity prices are likely to rise, with the associated rise in gold prices. We will have to be especially vigilant against outbreaks of human disease due to shifting weather conditions being unusually favorable for certain pathogenic organisms.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 21:33 - ID#288295)
The encapsulated coin is referred as a 'slabbed' coin, certified by one of the major coin grading services ( PCGS, NGC etc ) and the major advantage is that the coin grading is authenticated....Certified coins are very liquid and can be bought/sold over the phone. 'MS' just means mint state. Generic ( common dates or mints ) gold coins are available from a number of good sources, and basically ( I think ) be bought on price. If you are considering the more high-end coins ( rare coins or common dates in very high grades ) you really need some good advice.... But if just buying generic certified coins probably not - all you need to know is what types and grades to buy.... I have my opinion on which grades to buy, but others may differ - part of the problem of knowing what grades to buy depends on whether you think previous pricing patterns will be repeated in today's environment. If there were strong inflation now, there is no question that you should buy the really good ( expensive ) stuff.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 21:34 - ID#162309)
WetGold ... Y2K
WetGold, I don't know how that analyst on CNBC or whatever got his information on the status of the banking industry with respect to Y2K, but the evidence clearly contradicts him. I have personally spoken with front line IT workers at 3 major Canadian banks who have indicated that things are getting quite chaotic and they are dubious on the ability of the banks to finish. They said that they are taking their money out of the banks by September of this year at the latest. If you go to Gary North's site ( ) and look up the Banking chapter, it is clear that the industry is far from compliant in the U.S. as well. How on earth could the Chase Manhattan Bank remediate 400 million lines of code in less than 3 years? Why is the head of the BIS and Chairman Al so publicly freaked about Y2K if the U.S. banks are practically finished? I believe that the banks are stalling for time to prevent runs from occuring ... all you need for a bank run is simply a loss of confidence on the part of the people.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 21:37 - ID#288295)

Yes, the world is about to be infected by a disease not seen for a very long time....the GOLD BUG !!

yuk yuk yuk

(Fri Feb 27 1998 21:37 - ID#237299)
Government propaganda
I long ago gave up long ago believing in a free press, but I clung to the belief that Nationl Public Radio was unbiased. But I've noticed over the last several months that when they give the 5 second market report, they'll *never* mention gold, unless it is down. Sometimes even if gold fell 5 cents, they'll report, "The dow closed today at such and such, AND GOLD WAS DOWN." At first I thought this was my imagination, but over and over it occurs. They don't mention a thing when it moves up.

So today, after a strong gold rally, they have a feature story on the terrible worker and mine situation in South Africa "BECAUSE OF THE WORLD-WIDE DECLINING PRICES IN GOLD". Through out the story over and over again it was intoned "THE LOW PRICES FOR GOLD", or "DECLINING

Consumer engineering at it's finest.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 21:43 - ID#250251)
Skip: MInts state MS simply means that the coin is graded as that of a coin "normally" minted using normal techniques and blank materials but was not subject to actual circulation wear.

MS gold coins in MS-62 an above are highly collectable and the market at present is very liquid good pieces are snapped up rapidly. Coin collecting is second only to stamp collectng in its number of devotees which greatly helps liquidity. Buy MS 62 and above.

Blanchard in my opinion is reputable but often a little pricey in its offerings, I doubt you would be able to sell for more than 80-90% of your original purchase price.

Take heart, I believe that numismatics particularly MS gold will see very good times soon.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 21:45 - ID#26669)
From whence comes the number 0.618???
Could someone give me a reference for the use of the constant 0.618 in the prediction of price jumps? Is there any basis in math or is this just an empiric number? If one uses it to predict the next bounce for silver they come up with about $9.75 which seems a little overoptomistic to me. Something to ponder on a slow night. Thanks

(Fri Feb 27 1998 21:48 - ID#288295)
Obsidian @ NPR

My take on NPR is that they are, and have been, left of center for a long time. Interesting observation on their anti-gold propaganda, however....but is about what I would have expected.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 21:53 - ID#287129)
jonboy (Numismatics)
Thank you for your comments. My coin is MS-63 in the St. Gaudens series, graded by one of the firms you mentioned. Others have told me that the appreciation potential is just as great or even greater than gold, and I have wondered whether that is fantasy or probability.

Somehow I feel more comfortable with more recent coins and gold stocks. Unfortunately I missed the SSC appreciation. I have several thousand shares of Caledonia Mining, some of which I bought at $2.00/share and are now worth 25 cents per share. Also, on a recommendation from a so-called expert, I bought Oliver Gold -- which has also gone down. However, I believe that CALVF has great potential. Are there any educated opinions on this newsgroup regarding CALVF or Oliver Gold ( OGLDF ) ?


(Fri Feb 27 1998 21:55 - ID#237299)
@Silverbaron, yeah, rattled my last hope for news not crafted
out of Washington

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:03 - ID#288295)
223 @ .618
0.618, also known as phi, is a naturally-occurring ratio in nature and sometimes known as the Golden Ratio or Golden Mean. It is the mathematical basis for the shape of playing cards, forming the most pleasing shape of rectangle....0.618 ( and 1.618 ) are found in ratios of Fibonacci numbers and in Elliott Wave theory, in that these numbers represent a mathematical relationship between waveforms which exhibit themselves as pricing patterns.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:08 - ID#269245)
I am disappointed that you still had faith in NPR! By my judgement, NPR is the worst because it has the best credibility! I wake up every morning to NPR because it is the most reliable source of information I have. I learned a long time agothat I can only use the NPR info as a guage of American public opinion - which is good to know. But, by the time I am driving to work I am so pissed at the blind ignorance and American bias on the NPR that I have to change it to a classical station just to restore my piece of mind! Please, don't get me started.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:10 - ID#222231)
I just saw this statement on another forum. Has anyone else heard of this?

Subj: Speaking of Rumors
By: mo102
Date: Feb 27 1998 6:19 P.M PST
Reply To: Msg. 296 by bigtva

Speaking of rumors; I read an article somewhere on the net ( not
a message board ) that the European currency may be backed by
silver. Has anyone heard anything on this?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:11 - ID#243180)
I must have posted 20 different arguments over the past 6 months re: Y2K. Inevitably, the most minor criticism of Y2K sparks fury. I wish this energy could be channeled into solving political scandals, moving the PMs higher, and exposing the Fed, et al. But, if I could ......

If I may politely mention to all the Y2K folks and mass hysteria-promoters, in the words of Oliver Cromwell on the way to his death said: "... I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken"

Thanx for your post ,,,,

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:14 - ID#243180)
I forgot to mention in my earlier post that Blanchard & Co. was once owned by James Blanchard III. General Electric ( GE ) owns the current company while Jim Blanchard owns Jefferson Coin & Bullion ( one of my URLs ) ...

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:14 - ID#252127)

Most companies on the XAU are over-extended losers and give gold a bad name. Here's one that will help improve the image.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:14 - ID#288295)
Skip @ CALVF

I used to own the stock ( and in fact made a fair amount of money on it ) It was really hyped by the Oxford Club a few years ago, but it died and I don't know why.... Some of their European Mining ventures ( re-mining old Roman silver mine tailings, African Cobalt, Hungarian marble, etc. ) still sound interesting to me, but I've seen no updates for quite a while. Could be a buy here, it's so cheap. As I recall it was the best-performing stock on Nasdaq 3 or 4 years ago. I still keep the O.C. flyer in my desk as a reminder to re-look at it sometime.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:15 - ID#78116)
My firm works with Chase on the Y2k issue, there is no question in my mind that they will be fully compliant as will most of the major banks in the US.... The two operative words here are 'most' and 'US'. More than a few smaller and mid size banks won't be ready and the situation outside the US is anyones guess.....

I don't see this as a disaster scenario.... quite to the contrary, those that are ready and compliant will gain business.... those who are not will go broke.... The US has way too many banks to begin with anyway, a few bankruptcies will be good for the system.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:16 - ID#206358)
Korea looks still in the sinking TITANIC!Check out in your source!
The weather over here is 37 c,really hot,dry!and the borneo forest fire seem endless.INDONESIA is having long holidays from now till the election finished 11/march/98!Very tense time....still take lfe easy and free!

Ted ,kristine and family,
How life?....hope well....!
DOW JONES unbelieveable....another record!So powerful!
BYE.....TASHI DALEK... ( tibetan's greeting )


(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:17 - ID#243180)
You posted: "those that are ready and compliant will gain business.... those who are not will go broke...."

I love the free market ....

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:18 - ID#252150)
tol1@Your 20:42 is very profound.....I think
You are the sunshine that diffuses thru the murky depths of the pond, only penetrating a few inches, but still supplying nutrients to those organisms that are susceptible.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:18 - ID#78116)
National Pinko Radio.... unbiased, oh please. They have always been consistently left of center and proud of it

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:20 - ID#78116)
The real solution to the y2k problem is the marketplace. It will eventually sort all of this out. If you know who is going to make it and who won't you can make your bets accordingly.

If you are in a bank that you doubt, I would move my money now. I would not wait.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:21 - ID#237299)
@clone ..Nay, don't use it to gague American public opinion,
use it as a gague of what Washington "wants" American public opinion
to be. There's a difference.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:22 - ID#237299)
@clone ..Nay, don't use it to gague American public opinion,
use it as a gague of what Washington "wants" American public opinion
to be. ( or what it pretends it is ) There's a difference.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:24 - ID#388404)
Silverbaron, Hello; How does one access Mr. Kaplans article "must read" Thankyou in advance.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:25 - ID#348129)
Organ: The US has 350,000 IT jobs unfilled at the moment, and things will only get worse. Companies have been holding back on compensation for IT workers until now but I think it will change soon, as businesses realise they have no choice but to pay any price to get Y2K
The end result will be massive poaching of workers with giant signing bonuses.
Many consultants I know are signing very short contracts, as their rates increase with each signing.
The Canadian banks are shooting themselves in the foot, as they have refused to pay meaningfull retention bonuses to their IT workers.
There is no loyalty left in most of these employees, and many can and will be easily bought with US or european contracts.
Look for big trouble later this year with the Canadian Banks. They have made some major blunders and will end up paying a big price.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:26 - ID#269245)
Organ - I predict that most cautious investors will be taking their assets out of the banks and securities well before Y2K. I have even speculated that this is one of the factors which prompted Buffet to make his latest move. Others have suggested that Buffet has also accumulated gold - if this proves to be correct, I think we can attribute such a move at least partly to Y2K as well. Buffet is a medium/long term investor - he should hold his metal until after Y2K. Remember too, that the banks do not have even remotely enough cash to cover a series of major withdrawls. That is why your contacts are getting out so early. I will be right there with them. Y2K only threatens older software. It shouldn't cause too large of a mess ( hopefully ) . The mass perception, that is what I am worried about!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:30 - ID#28585)
Isure, my wife and I are going to a big dinner now so I cannot write at this moment.

However, I plan to provide a very lengthy post this weekend...and I believe it will lift your spirits significantly.

At this point in time, I am pragmatic ( not bullish nor euphoric ) about gold and silver. However, pragmatic analysis of the current metal markets can only lead to one positive conclusion...Stay Tuned.

Farfel...The Unpronounceable.

( no relation to Another )

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:30 - ID#288295)
Nicodemus @ Steve Kaplan

POLARBEAR provided the link to Kaplan's site in his 20:53 posting today.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:38 - ID#348129)
@More Y2K
Karlito, im sure you know that it's not as simple as 1 or 2 banks failing, and the rest will prosper. Banks have to settle tens of billions of $ between themselves each night, and a break in that chain would set off
a series of defaults that could bring the system to a halt.
I would not be as brave as to say that all major banks will be Y2K compliant by 2000.
On a scale of 0 to 5, the US is between 2 and 3 at the moment, which is to say they still have a long way to go, with 22 months left and counting.......

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:40 - ID#318172)
Kaplan's site
Please let me know where to find Kaplan's site. Thanks to anyone with this info.

silver plate
(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:41 - ID#289468)
my mother used to make "farfel" for dinner. it was delicious especially

with a little gravy poured on top.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:42 - ID#288295)
One thing FOR SURE, is that the fear mongers will start in on this sometime late 98-early 99 and you will hear of it continually. I wouldn't be surprised to see Dan Rather doing a 'live' Y2K program any time now. Should be VERY good for hard assets ( esp. gold/silver ) , maybe not so good for the mining stocks ( as year-end 99 approaches ) .

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:44 - ID#348129)
@Y2K - A repost from yesterday --- World: Millennium 'Bomb' Threatens Global Economy
"The survey rated countries according to five categories: Zero -- for no action on the problem taken; Level 1 -- for recognition of the problem and need for action; Level 2 -- completion of an inventory; Level 3 -- for development of a program for making repairs and starting the process; Level 4 -- for completion of work on "mission critical" systems; Level 5 -- for completion of work on all systems.

The results listed the U.S., Canada, Australia, Great Britain and Ireland at Level 2 to 3. Western Europe, Israel, South Africa, Japan and Brazil were ranked at Level 1 to 2. Central Africa Eastern Europe, Middle East, Russia, China and parts of South America were rated at Zero to Level 1. Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, portions of South America, and most of the former Soviet Union -- Zero."

World: Millennium 'Bomb' Threatens Global Economy

By Julie Moffett

Washington, 25 February 1998 ( RFE/RL ) -- A financial expert says the so-called "millennium bomb" -- the failure of certain computer software to distinguish between the 20th and 21st centuries -- will have as great an impact on the global economy, if not more, than the current economic crisis in Asia.

Lou Marcoccio, Research Director of the year 2000 problem at the Gartner Group, a Connecticut research firm widely regarded as the premier expert on the millennium bomb, told RFE/RL that the world should brace for serious economic problems ahead as a result of the software failure.

The problem, also referred to as Y2K for the year 2000, dates back to the 1960's and 1970's when technicians used questionable cost-cutting methods to create special microchips. In order to save space and money, the technicians programmed the chips to recognize years as two digits instead of four. For example, when the computer reads the digits 9 and 8, it determines the year is 1998.

So, unless the computers are reprogrammed, the year 2000 will register as 00 -- or 1900. Experts say this is certain to create a number of logical inconsistencies, causing the computers to either erase the data, malfunction, behave in erratic and unpredictable ways, or shut down altogether.

Since most major institutions such as banks, hospitals, schools, communication and transportation arrays, government agencies, businesses and the military are all connected to computers, a failure of any or all of these systems simultaneously could cause the world economy to grind to a halt.

The severity of the problem is finally gaining worldwide attention. The Business Week magazine published a cover story this week dedicated to the effect the millennium bomb may have on the U.S. economy.

As part of its research, the magazine commissioned a survey to assess the impact of the Y2K problem specifically on the U.S. economy. However, the survey also serves as a blueprint of what other industrialized nations around the world may also experience.

According to the survey, growth rate in the U.S. in 1999 is expected to be 0.3 percentage points lower as companies are forced to divert resources to fix the computer problem.

The survey also estimates the Y2K problem will cut a half of a percentage point off growth in the years 2000 and 2001. That would roughly equal the expected economic fallout of the current turmoil in East Asia.

But the survey indicates that growth will not be the only thing affected. Inflation is expected to rise and productivity fall. This will come about, says the survey, because companies will be busy diverting money, resources and manpower toward fixing the millennium problem instead of creating and marketing new products.

Finding the people to fix the problem will not be easy either. According to a study done by The Information Technology Association of America, the U.S. already has 350,000 job vacancies for computer scientists and programmers.

As a result, the U.S. Federal Reserve ( central bank ) will have to negotiate a delicate course as the millennium approaches. The Fed is expected to come under intense pressure in 1999 to increase interest rates as labor shortages for technology workers could cause wages to soar. But if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it could then force employers to hire fewer workers, possibly delaying a solution to the computer problem.

Last September, a U.S. House subcommittee on government management estimated the cost of fixing the millennium bomb for federal agencies will be $3.8 billion, with an additional $2 billion to fix state agencies.

However, the Gartner Group has issued an estimate of final costs far larger the official $3.8 billion mark. It says the cost could reach as high as $30 billion.

Moreover, another costly dimension to the problem, say experts, is that many companies are not taking into account the possibility of litigation resulting from software failure.

For example, companies that do not fix their code in time are opening themselves to lawsuits from partners and shareholders. Companies which share electronic data could sue each other if the problem results in lost revenue. Governments could face a wide range of lawsuits from citizens and, at the least, angry constituents.

Overall, Software Productivity Research -- a research firm located in the northeastern U.S. state of Massachusetts -- estimates the legal fees resulting from failures due to the millennium bomb could reach as much as $2 billion by the year 2005. Awards for damages could be as high as a trillion, it adds.

But perhaps the greatest unknown factor in determining the precise impact of the millennium bomb on the U.S. and global economy, says Marcoccio, is the readiness of the rest of the world to address the problem.

Marcoccio says Europeans and Asians lag behind the U.S. in trying to fix the problem. In a recent survey, Marcoccio's firm checked on how prepared 6,000 companies around the world are in addressing the millennium bomb, the results were dismal.

The survey rated countries according to five categories: Zero -- for no action on the problem taken; Level 1 -- for recognition of the problem and need for action; Level 2 -- completion of an inventory; Level 3 -- for development of a program for making repairs and starting the process; Level 4 -- for completion of work on "mission critical" systems; Level 5 -- for completion of work on all systems.

The results listed the U.S., Canada, Australia, Great Britain and Ireland at Level 2 to 3. Western Europe, Israel, South Africa, Japan and Brazil were ranked at Level 1 to 2. Central Africa Eastern Europe, Middle East, Russia, China and parts of South America were rated at Zero to Level 1. Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, portions of South America, and most of the former Soviet Union -- Zero.

To make matters worse, some experts say that European banks are more preoccupied with preparing for the euro than addressing the computer problem, whereas Asian financial institutions are too busy worrying about the current economic crisis to think about the year 2000.

That is a big mistake, says Edward Yardeni, chief economist at the investment bank Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, Inc. Last year, Yardeni predicted a 35 to 40 percent chance that the year 2000 software bug would cause "at least a mild global recession" in that year.

U.S. President Bill Clinton and Great Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair are so concerned about the effect of the millennium bomb that the issue will be on the formal agenda of the next G-8 summit in Britain in May.

Other U.S. officials are also speaking out on the issue.

On a visit to Germany last October, U.S. Senator Bob Bennett, ( R-Utah ) told a group of German businessmen that he was greatly concerned that Europeans were not taking the computer problem seriously enough.

Bennett said many leaders simply believe the problem will go away, or someone else will fix it for them.

Bennett said: "I was talking to one business leader in Bulgaria about [the millennium bomb], and he said it should be no problem. He told me they would just ask Bill Gates [the multi-billionaire owner of the American software firm Microsoft] to come over and fix it for them. I hope our partners in Europe realize how serious this problem facing us is."

Overall, Marcoccio says his organization has estimated that the cost of fixing the Y2K problem worldwide will cost $300 to $600 billion.

Says Marcoccio: "All of us in every country in the world are going to pay this bill ... all of us individually because goods will cost more, utilities, including power, lights and water, will increase in price, taxes will go up across the board because governments have to pay for this as well ... There is no one else to pay for this problem except all of us. And pay, we will."


(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:45 - ID#269245)
Your point is well taken, but I have a hard time differentiating the two ( re:Washington opinion vs. Ameriacan opinion ) Perhaps a better guage of American opinion would be Harper's Mag? the Economist? this Forum? I would hope so, but I think the previosly mentioned only represent ( arguably, of course! ) American Intellectualism, not universal American opinion. What is the best guage? I know it isn't anyone I know - they couldn't care less! Unless that is the answer?....

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:46 - ID#393224)
Lou Jan/Kaplan's site

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:48 - ID#318321)
@gold and my job
Well guys I gave my two week notice at work today and you would of thought I had personally insulted them or something. I could tell that my boss was worried that he was going to have to pay alot more than what he paid me plus recruiting costs ( my new job pays alot more ) . When will these people learn to take care of what they have?

Movements in gold and silver look incouraging for the first time in a long while. I'm wondering how much gold will be needed to when these guys decide to cover. I bet we could quantify the resultant movement when they really begin to cover. Quantify mass hysteria. hmmm.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:51 - ID#288295)
Nick @ C

G'Day Nick! - Anything tonite that you recommend we should not buy/look at/investigate ??

The Hatt
(Fri Feb 27 1998 22:58 - ID#294232)
Emergency Wards Across The Country Jammed With Patients With Chest Pains!
You got it from the hatt first the SHORTERS ARE SWEATING BIG TIME!!!!!!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:03 - ID#269245)
Silverbaron, MoReGoLd, WetGold
The US gov't ( and mainstream media ) will spend considerable effort trying to convince the public not to worry about Y2K. Most will probably believe them. Some will not. I to think that the main problem will not be whether the banks are compliant or not, but rather what the general opinion is. It will take more time to make an acurate prediction. People like me, however, will definately remove themselves from even a remote chance of havoc. There are just too many factors involved in this issue - things that perhaps no on has thought of. What kind of code are satelites programmed with? Soviet Nuclear arms? What other angles are not being addressed? I agree with Silverbaron - very good for hard assets ( especially in combination with other global issues ) , perhaps not so good for gold stocks.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:05 - ID#341312)
Wetgold, Karlito99-Y2K
I agree that major US banks are making significant progress to Y2k compliance. I am not aware of any, however, that are currently compliant. Foreign banks are woefully unprepared and few will probably continue to function as the rollover hits. The reason I make this rather strong statement is that they have started very, very late if at all due to other, more pressing concerns such as euro conversion or currency devaluations. I believe AG has already made statements to the effect that noncompliant foreign banks will not be allowed to interact with US banks. This poses some severe problems for major US corporations since much of their manufacturing capacity has been moved overseas to take advantage of cheap labor and relaxed environmental standards. How, exactly are they going to import components or finished goods ( assuming the overseas factories continue to function-not too likely due to embedded chips on the factory floor ) without an operating international payment system? These problems will of course eventually be solved but not before there
is a severe recession or possibly a depression. The government will be experiencing some "technical difficulties" of their own and will be in no position to help out. Adios, welfare state! The elections in 2000 should be interesting. Meanwhile, I am in the process of converting most of my digital wealth ( modest by the standards of this group ) into metal. It's the buy of a lifetime. Who knows, we might even return to a gold or bimetallic standard! Nah, I'm dreamin...

Quixotic 1
(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:07 - ID#48200)
Numismatics for everyone !!
WetGold & SilverBaron & All,

I have had a great relationship with the Tulving Co. Tulving generally sells only the better coins with-in the grade, in other words, an MS63 that almost made an MS64, as opposed to an MS 63 that just made the grade.
Try to procure a copy of The Coin Dealer Newsletter, Coin World and the Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter. These publications have contacts for many other dealers as well. However, stay with an outfit that offers a no-hassle returns policy. Be sure to select coins that have a lot of 'eye appeal". To pay a little extra now for eye appeal, seems to return a premium and greatly enhances liquidity latter. You will be very surprised to see the differences in 10 samples of MS65 $20 Saints lined up on the table. Follow your eye, all other things being equal. I also try to select better date high-grade coins ( MS65 ) . The peak prices seemed to be significantly higher, than the common date coins. In 1989, common date MS65 Saints ( about$950 today ) reached about $4000. At the same time, an MS 65 1913S Saint that sells today for $1500, sold in 1989 for $8500. The grade leverage is much greater.
Shop around, educate yourself, talk to everyone, go to coin shows, and read the trade rags. It's a life all to its own. Good luck.

Gold for the good guysGMJ

(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:08 - ID#318172)
Thanks for refering me to the Kaplan site! ( I had been checking his new site instead ) .

(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:13 - ID#252127)
The XAU is a farce.

How can the public consider buying bummers like.....TVX, GGO, HL, ECO, CDE, BMG when such companies probably can't make a profit; even at $400 plus per oz. The best thing for goldbugs is to dump the XAU in its present form and institue something new.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:16 - ID#335190)
February 27, 1998
ASEAN finance ministers begin Jakarta meeting

JAKARTA, Feb 28 ( Reuters ) - Finance ministers from the nine ASEAN countries gathered in Jakarta on Saturday to discuss the region's financial difficulties and possible ways to deal with the crisis.

Ministers were tight-lipped as they entered the meeting but senior officials who met on Friday to lay the groundwork said plans to conduct intra-ASEAN trade in local currencies rather than U.S. dollars were high on the agenda.

International pressure on Indonesia to reform increased on Friday after a senior U.S. administration official said the United States would oppose the next payment of the IMF loan to Indonesia unless President Suharto carries out promised economic reforms.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:17 - ID#288295)

You and I are on the same wavelength - I too, will ( at least ) minimize my banking exposure and have cash/food/fuel etc. for several months' needs on hand. Not a good time to lose power - in the dead of wiinter.

How about embedded processors? What problems could they cause?

(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:18 - ID#252127)

You'll can also find it at the new site after opening it up.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:21 - ID#210235)
Hey, re the XAU, how come? Kind of a short post for such a radical thought. As an owner of one of those stocks, it would be nice to have some idea what the beef is, and with what you would replace it. I am in the process of evaluating gold mutual funds, all of which hold some XAU components, as part of my metals holdings, and will consider your ideas.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:27 - ID#334280)
Rare coins in a monetary crisis.
There have been a number of posts tonite about purchasing rare coins as an investment. If you feel that we are on the brink of a financial crisis, rare coins would be the last place to build as an asset. How many South Koreans or Indonesians are presently rushing out to buy their countries rarest coins? Rare coins, as any collectible, would fall in value during hard times. Lost half your retirement savings due to a stock market crash ?Why then just buy certified rare coins!
Understand, there are a lot of people posting information here whose business is to sell rare coins and PM's. For a thousand bucks I'd take 3 ozs. of the gold stuff ( low premium to metal content ) , and wait for the crisis to occur before purchasing those mint state coins.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:30 - ID#210235)
@CNBC re gold
Heard the commentator on CNBC, explaining the $4 rise in gold today, mention that many feel that CB selling this year won't be significant, or further effecting POG. This was the first time I heard the mainstream press reporting this. Realized that the huge paper profits out there, should investors zero in on metals, could move our small-cap market big time. There is alot of $$ out there with very little available at a good price. For the price of a couple of good cigars, or a fine bottle of wine, you can get an oz. of gold. Bought some more physical today.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:36 - ID#269245)
What would I know about embedded processors?? I... err... I don't even know what a computer looks like! But my suspicion would be that Y2K is a software problem, not a hardware problem. Except, perhaps for some of the older, outdated computers. I am searching for more certainty on this issue, however. I'll keep you posted.

On another note... watch how the media transforms public opinion!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:36 - ID#373403)
I think that the few banks which spend the money to become compliant will more than recoup when they buy the many smaller non-compliant banks at deep discounts. The assets and liabilities of the smaller banks will just merge with a few giants.

I don't see how this scenario leads to settlement difficulties. Besides the negative effects of mass centralization and lack of competition this is little different than the orderly bailouts which the FSLIC engineered during the S&L crisis.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:37 - ID#255190)
Karlito@unbridled faith in the markets
Your sureness is part of the problem. If you think that people will be ABLE to transfer their digital wealth from a Y2K basket case to a Y2K hero bank your REALLY haven't thought this through at all. The FLOW of capital will be greatly hindered. This will shut down economies. If there is no reliable, intatc system then IT DOESN'T MATTER if half the banks did OK. The fact is they must all execute this together perfectly. Anything less than this will be at least a disaster. Greenspan has said as much. He should know.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:38 - ID#26669)
Silverbaron re golden mean:
Thanks. Once you mentioned the name I was able to find a link listing it, in fact one related to some stuff I'd looked up about chaos theory. Isn't it funny, I'd learned about it years ago in some unrelated way in an undergraduate math class, forgot it and never thought it could be applied to investing until someone mentioned it on Kitco recently, then I forgot the context again until someone else used it as a plug in to predict one of silver's dips.

BTW here is the link to the page I found it listed on, just for fun. Goodnight, and thanks again.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:39 - ID#288295)

That's pretty much where I'm at with respect to the high-end coins. I do have some Certified Libs and Sts @ MS 63 or lower, but most of my recent purchases are in the European gold ( pre-1933 ) area where you can get some really nice uncirculated coins for about 5 or 10% over spot - Sovereigns, and the continental coins 20 Francs, Marks, Lira, Corona etc.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:43 - ID#210235)
@Silverbaron & clone
Here are a couple of links that offer a good look at Y2K It's not something that you can take in all at once. Too much data. Enjoy.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:45 - ID#183109)
.618, 6.18, 618 ............

In response to your question:

 Could someone give me a reference for the use of the constant 0.618 in the prediction of price jumps? 

The number .618 is derived from the Fibonacci Summation Series, which is a series of numbers derived by performing a mathmatical operation on a previous number. In this operation, you add the current number to the previous number to create a third number. As an example, 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233 etc.

The interesting thing with this is that once you get past 8 or so, the ratio of the previous number to the new number, stabilizes out at approximately .618.

Also with the Lucas Summation Series, performing a similar process as above, but starting with the numbers 1 and 3 ( instead of 1 and 2 ) you still end up getting .618.

And finally, the Eng Summation Series, which states that using any two very large numbers and performing the same process, you again come up with a ratio of .618.


(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:46 - ID#304282)
Quixotic 1
What do you know about Merritt Financial? Are they a respectable firm? thanks

(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:48 - ID#288295)

I spent some time in the Gary North site about 6 months ago- it's mind boggling.....probably 10 times as big now.

G'Nite All - have sweet dreams, thinking about how yummy next week is gonna be, killin' the gold/silver shorts!

(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:50 - ID#255190)
Flow of money

1 ) The only way you will find out if your bank is Y2K compliant is to watch it sink or swim.
2 ) If it sinks you will not have access to your "money". No bank in the world that is operating correctly will deal with your bank until it is fixed and certified compliant.
3 ) Let's say 25% of domestic banks and 40% of international banks die for 6 months to a year. We are talking FROZEN ASSESTS here. No availablitity. No flow. No nothin'.
4 ) Let's say 20% of all transportation systems, scheduling systems, communication systems, etc die world wide. What do you think will happen ??? We are talking MAJOR disruption here folks. This is not tiddly winks ( pardon EB ) .
5 ) People will either panic preemptively or after the fact. This herd will mow you down if you are in the way. 38% of executive IT ( Information Technology ) managers plan to PULL THEIR MONEY FROM THE BANKS prior to Y2K.

Neither optumisn nor pessimism is worth a hoot here. OPEN YOUR EYES. If you are not familiar with the information infrastructure which supports your very existance then that is where you need to start looking in order to understand the problem. Its all interdependent and fragile.

(Fri Feb 27 1998 23:54 - ID#269245)
Hello? Are we sick?
OK. I just realised something, everyone. IT'S FRIDAY!!! Not to mention a bull of a Friday! It's time to celebrate. We're all sick!! Go out, get some fresh air, leave the gold in its place - sheesh! The markets will not open until Sunday night. We need to start enjoying our sorry lives! I seriously need a beer,2,3,4! I'm outta here! Here's to many, many bullish Fridays! Cheers! }; ) -c