Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 00:02 - ID#210235)
I've given this some consideration, and frankly, it's going to be tough to position our family. Ideally, we'd like to sit out the disruption in a Galt's Gulch, where we can set up a family retreat. The right spot is, by definition, really hard to find. How are you personally preparing?

(Sat Feb 28 1998 00:08 - ID#407135)
Nick re Kaplan site
Thanks Nick for posting the Kaplan site it is very good.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 00:12 - ID#42365)
concerning Y2k...
It neccesarrily doesnt have to be an actual probem rather than be concieved as a problem, to start a panic, run on the bank, etc...

(Sat Feb 28 1998 00:13 - ID#42365)
errr -1 than

(Sat Feb 28 1998 00:15 - ID#393224)
Yes mate. Mogul Mining ( MGL ) , Tanganyika Gold ( TGO ) , Oxiana Resources ( OXR ) and you already know from Haggis about Legend ( LEG ) and East Coast ( ECM ) . You could get seriously rich and leave the site--so avoid them.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 00:17 - ID#210235)
Maybe. I don't think that, at least in the USA, public perception will lead to panic. Dan Rather has probably already taped his Y2k, nothing to fear, special presentations. Much more likely the public will revile "fear mongerers", and put them in a category with end-of-the-world cults. Then there will be lots of surprised folks on Jan 1. The big question is, will this lead to civil disruption, and, if so, where is the best place to sit it out?

(Sat Feb 28 1998 00:19 - ID#210235)
I was reading up on Legend last week. Do you know if it can be purchased in the USA as an ADR? Or is it in any mutual fund that we can buy here?

(Sat Feb 28 1998 00:21 - ID#393224)
OH, and last but not least-- Leo Shield ( LEO ) .

(Sat Feb 28 1998 00:29 - ID#393224)
G'day Prometheus
Not sure how to buy Legend ( LEG ) in the US. If what Haggis suspects about the PGMs mixed in with the silver is correct--they are sure going to be a bonanza. A rhodium cocktail sure sounds good to me. Will look for some info for you. Chart looks absolutely beautiful. Bounced off support at .21 very nicely as silver corrected. Now at .23 and the sky is the limit. Gonna be more expensive Monday!!

(Sat Feb 28 1998 00:30 - ID#390249)
"CB's have not withdrawn from gold lending market"
Dinsa Mehta of Chase today said that "The CB's have not withdrawn from the gold lending market, there has just been one large lease position that was not rolled over which some people didn't plan for."

I'm kind of suprised to hear him downplay the market as in the past he has been the most bullish analyst out there for gold.

Quixotic 1
(Sat Feb 28 1998 00:37 - ID#48200)
Twinkle-Twinkle little coin !!
Tricky, Cavender, All;
I have not heard or dealt with Merit Investments. That does not mean anything though, as I have only been investing in numismatics for about 2 months. I started my numismatic coin education about 4 months ago. I felt a need and desire to diversify from bullion coins and PM equities. I have substantial PM investments ( for me anyway ) , and was looking to place some money outside of traditional investments. Besides, I like the aesthetics of the coins. I often wonder if I could part with the collection, as it's now called. This has become a hobby of sorts, replacing firearms ( my wife likes that part ) .
Do your homework and don't jump at the first coin that twinkles in your eye. Have an investment plan in mind, before you buy. Know whom you'll sell to, and what their spreads are, before you buy.
Another fun place to buy coins is at the auction, but you better know your prices and grades at this site. I've picked up some great bargains there.

Gold for the good gu...GMJ...Good night.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 00:44 - ID#339212)
@ Obsidian, Polarbear, Karlitto

Obsidian, your 21:37 post about PNR silencing upmoves in gold coincides with my observations on FNN ( Financial News Network ) . Are they the same network or affiliated with Bloomberg Radio?

PolarBear, thank you for your 23:45 post explaining the number 0.618 how it is derived from the Fibonacci Summation Series. I still don't see how the series ( and the number ) relate to gold prices. After all, if there is a relationship to gold, then there must also be a relationship to all other PMs, commodities and markets. Any thoughts?

Karlitto, aren't you converted yet? If not you will be soon, I know you will be an excellent gold bug.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 00:46 - ID#31868)
Thank you

(Sat Feb 28 1998 00:50 - ID#157190)
Has Warren Buffett invested in metals before, it doesn't follow his usual pattern??
And has it really been confirmed that he is heavily into silver, or
perhaps that could be a rumour. It is only after each quarter end that
the holdings in a fund are disclosed, etc. I know that I've reached
middle age when I'm reading kitco on a friday night, hehe.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 01:14 - ID#31868)
That wet piece of meat between your ears, hmmm, your brain, hmmmm,follow or be followed, what my child is your inclination?

(Sat Feb 28 1998 01:47 - ID#153102)
@T1 Apres moi les deluge.
Attributed I think to Louis XIII, the Sun KIng, saying after me, all hell breaks loose. Cardinal Richelieu worked for him I think.
Kind of like Keynes "In the long term we are all dead = so why should we not think only of ourselves and let the devil take the hindmost"

(Sat Feb 28 1998 02:22 - ID#284255)
US Treasuries: "There were huge sellers in the market place this morning."
Long bond hit 6% briefly for the first time in a while.
Meanwhile, Rubin says: U.S. Rates set to Fall
Here is a theory for you: the Japanese are selling treasuries substantially and will sell a bunch more this month. Tokyo openly talked about an 18000 target for the Nikkei and today we're in the 16000's. Japan co's need to make their capital requirements come March 31 some way. And selling treasuries will be part of the solution.
That's why Rubin is promoting the bond.
That's why Washington is brow beating Tokyo about fiscal stimulation.
That's why yet another envoy visits Asia next week.
That's in part why M-3 grew at an 11.4% annual rate ( M-2 at 7.1% ) for the three months leading up to Jan ( by the way, interest rates should be low in light of these extremely expansionary policies ) .
March will be interesting.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 02:24 - ID#284255)
Jim Guy's headache
for the Clintons
Bill Clinton's pigstickers at the White House --Sidney
Blumenthal, James Carville, Paul Begala and the scurvy
gang -- are having the thrills of desperate men with their smear
of Ken Starr, but the president himself knows better.
Monica Lewinsky, suited up in kneepads or not, big hair
and all, is a mere diversion. The real game is in Little Rock, and
nobody knows this better than our president.
Jim Guy Tucker, the former governor, is singing like a
mockingbird ( the official state bird of Arkansas ) to the U.S.
grand jury in Little Rock, and Mr. Clinton is painfully aware
that Jim Guy knows all four verses of "Amazing Grace ( How
Sweet the Sound, That Saved a Wretch Like Me ) ."...........
John Robert Starr, the acerbic columnist for the president's
hometown newspaper who has followed him longer than
almost anyone else, has a similar take: "Jim Guy came away
from U.S. District Court wearing his trademark jackass grin ...
the fellow who should have been wearing a jackass grin was
Starr, still the victor in all but two of the prosecutions he has
taken to court. Completion of the latest Tucker case makes me
smugly confident that Starr will win the war Clinton and his
cronies have declared on him."

(Sat Feb 28 1998 02:33 - ID#240266)

(Sat Feb 28 1998 02:35 - ID#228283)
@aurator.. 7000 tonnes of Au...

did you ever find it? My question is why would they even post that entry? I love mysteries, but this one has me stumped. The COMEX has had a few strange reports, the inventory reports on Au sometimes do not add up. Could be as simple as a bad inventory or no one knows what the real numbers were in the first place.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 02:51 - ID#228283)

I liked your last post,but there are those who believe Mr. Starr is in the pocket of the Clintons....Starr has let them off the hook many times in the past....I hope I'm wrong about him.

Tried "paper trading' your Full Moon cycle. Got killed. Need more clarity, if you can provide it.

You are a fine '' poster '' on this forum and I look forward to them.

GO PMs !!!

(Sat Feb 28 1998 03:29 - ID#225273)
chas & TA

There was a debate between two Presbyterian ministers tonight in Marrietta, Ga about slavery, of all things. It was quite interesting. Always a passionate subject. I'm still ready to fight and its 3:24 AM

I think you're correct in seeing that a Dow selling or buying climas would, or could, end with an outside day/week/month.

As for the terms inside day and outside day, I have either picked those up in books on TA and/or seen them used by technicians on television enough to have grasped the concept.

By the way, on daily charts, an even more compelling turning signal than the outside day is the "island reversal." Say a share price gaps down early in the week; it stabilizes and then, boom, it gaps to the upside late in the week.

The lines in between the two gaps form an island, unconnected to the rest of the high/low/closes on the chart. This is a very powerful indicator that a trend change has taken place.

And this is exactly what happened on the XAU and Western Deep Levels, along with some others this week.

I strongly believe the gold shares have turned the corner and a very sharp, powerful rally from here for the next few to several weeks would not surprise me in the least.

I bought some Bema Gold today on the Toronto Exchange to take advantage of this upmove. Hope it works out.

Knight-Ridder has an excellent little primer on TA. It's in magazine form. I learned a lot from that some years ago.

I had rather communicate by posting than by e-mail, if you don't mind. But if you need to e-mail me, send it to The Deacon:

Good trading.

Go gold! Go copper! Go Bema.

The Preacher

(Sat Feb 28 1998 03:37 - ID#157190)
Sorry intolerant-1 but your the one that has just posted as an Ignorant1
I don't have to back up very far to see somebody else who shares my opinion of you. Oh and your a poet as well, that's nice. I'm not into returning insults so I'll hold off ( at least for now ) . I was looking to
find out about this for somebody else. No help here, but did find some of what I was looking for at:

(Sat Feb 28 1998 03:51 - ID#252150)
Allen@The Genius
Has it ever occured to you that you & your ilk have been wrong for at least 10 yr?
Luckily, you have a fat pension that allows you to make these lousy mkt calls but still maintain an above average standard of living. If you had to rely on your mkt savy to live, then you would be living on kraft dinner.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 03:54 - ID#153102)
astute analysis of the washington scene
But Lewinsky is not a sideshow, but like Paual Jones a main wedge tool to separate Clinton from his image with the feminazi
Starr is looking for a case he can take to Congress. A part legal, part political case. He's very picky-choosy about what he invvestigates. Justice is not established.
Appreciate all your posts.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 04:03 - ID#252150)
Mozel@The Circus
I'm surprised that an individual of your intelligence could get sidetracked from the originl issue. I would post more but to be quite honest, I'm pissed.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 04:15 - ID#153102)
Enjoyed your post on the currency scene.
Interesting cultural observations about Japan. Not sure I totally agree with all conclusions. Note Japanese tourism and camera carrying and popularity of golf, tennis, skiing. Different consumption patterns there and more saving, for sure. But, government there does not take out social security. Americans are being ripped off big time. SS Savings will be gone with the wind. I think IRA holders will get ripped then, too, with rule and tax changes.
Japanese economy has been carried by American since Nikkei crash. Can't continue as is. When American demand slows, Japan will really tank if not before due to banking insolvency.
Euro looks weak to me, too. Socialism in the hearts and minds of the people. Raised on it and can imagine nothing else.
But, the greenback, your pick for the continued world reserve currency, is a problem. Too string internationally. Too weak domestically. When the downturn comes, the troubles will begin. Next cycle would appear to move US economy into less than zero zone of debt and length and depth of decline. Both the floating rate international currency system and the domestic debt currency system of each country are unstable and each cycle has a deeper period.
Perhaps the collapse of the old Soviet Union is the future for all debt currency, socialist, managed economies, everywhere.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 04:17 - ID#28585)
Once again, Karlito has returned to try and scare gold/silverbugs into accepting the notion that the precious metals as financial reserves are anachronistic and shortly will be consigned to the rubbish heap of history. One can only speculate that he and his New Paradigm buddies have put together a nice short position in the metals and are none too pleased to observe recent positive developments in the metals markets.

The presence of nervous metal shorters is always encouraging. Naturally, in the absence of any recent, concrete negative news in the PM arena, Karlito and his ilk will launch another massive propaganda assault to attempt to unnerve PM owners. However, at this particular point in time, there is probably little if any reason for PM owners to be nervous. The next 45 days promise to be the most risk-free period for AU/AG since the inflationary days of the Carter presidency.

I will elaborate further upon this thesis in my next posting.

Farfel ( The Unpronounceable )

(Sat Feb 28 1998 04:20 - ID#153102)
Enjoyed your post on the currency scene.
Interesting cultural observations about Japan. Not sure I totally agree with all conclusions. Note Japanese tourism and camera carrying and popularity of golf, tennis, skiing. Different consumption patterns there and more saving, for sure. But, government there does not take out social security. Americans are being ripped off big time. SS Savings will be gone with the wind. I think IRA holders will get ripped then, too, with rule and tax changes.
Japanese economy has been carried by American since Nikkei crash. Can't continue as is. When American demand slows, Japan will really tank if not before due to banking insolvency.
Some days I spend the whole 24 hours on a side track.
After you finish relieving yourself, tell me what you meant.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 04:26 - ID#153102)
@James Oops
Need remedial posting training.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 04:31 - ID#153102)
@PH in LA
Enjoyed your post on the currency scene.
Interesting cultural observations about Japan. Not sure I totally agree with all conclusions. Note Japanese tourism and camera carrying and popularity of golf, tennis, skiing. Different consumption patterns there and more saving, for sure. But, government there does not take out social security. Americans are being ripped off big time. SS Savings will be gone with the wind. I think IRA holders will get ripped then, too, with rule and tax changes.
Japanese economy has been carried by American since Nikkei crash. Can't continue as is. When American demand slows, Japan will really tank if not before due to banking insolvency.
Thanks, hon, for the kind word.
You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
Especially not in California this year, huh ?

(Sat Feb 28 1998 04:34 - ID#284255)
Frenzy, Folly and Fear?
Thanks but the Moon piece was taken from Avid and not of my writing.

I think a lot more people than just Clinton must be getting worried.
I think AG and a few others must be feeling pretty weary by now.
And they all know that there is worse chaos to come.

Seems like there's going to be plenty of action coming up.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 04:34 - ID#153102)
@PH in LA @Oops again Some programmer deserves credit for some of this.
Thanks, hon, for the kind word.
You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
Especially not in California this year, huh ?

(Sat Feb 28 1998 04:42 - ID#283121)
The Silver Squeeze !

D.A. : Although your posts are generally very informative and objective, your 27/2 11:31 post mis-represents the arguments of M Armstrong on the current silver squeeze. You made the following comments :

"Because it is always important to focus on information which runs counter to your thinking I am an avid reader of Mr. Armstrong over at PEI.

Unfortunately he is becoming less and less rational as time goes on and his articles now contain significant factual errors. The most glaring one is his estimation of the storages costs for physical silver which he estimates at something like 45 - 50 cents per ounce per year. Last I looked, Comex storage costs, which by the way is about the most expensive place to store your silver, were running around 4.8 cents per year. If one had a sizeable load and endeavored to create ones own storage facility my guess would be than it could be done for perhaps a quarter of this price.

It would not be such a big deal if Mr. Armstrongs numbers were presented in passing. They are however the basis for his thesis that Mr. Buffett is sure to lose money on his purchase because the carrying costs are going to destroy him. The final implication is that this will cause Mr. Buffett to bail out and the ensuing liquidation of his position will send silver to near 0. "

The above is incorrect. Regarding silver storage costs, the following was directly copied from Armstrong's analysis :

"Unlike a stock, which pays dividends and can be kept in a safe-deposit box, the cost to store one contract of silver on COMEX ( 5,000 ounces ) is $18.50 per month. This works out to be 0.37 cents per ounce PER MONTH. After one year, this is almost 4.5 cents per ounce. After two years, the storage cost and interest loss on the one-ounce of silver amounts to 9 cents for storage and 69 cents in income loss ( assuming 5.7% interest ) . This means that by the end of 1999, Mr. Buffetts cost for his investment will be $6.53 per ounce ASSUMING his average purchase price was only $5.75. Without a speculative bubble to push prices higher, owning silver can be one of the WORST investments anyone will ever make when the metal is physically being stored."

That is, 4.5c per year, not 45c.

The discussion at the PEI website on the silver squeeze must contain over 5,000 words, of which less than 100 are devoted to Buffett's storage costs. There is no implication in the article that Buffett will be forced to bail out, only that he will be forced to lend out his silver in order to cover storage and interest ( opportunity ) costs.

Another point made by Armstrong is that bull markets NEVER begin in backwardation, they end in backwardation.

During the past 2 months we have seen silver go from 5.50 to 7.50 to 6.00 to 6.50. Normal bull market behaviour ? I think not.

Those who are not silver zealots and are able to sit back and watch the manipulations in the silver market with detatched amusement should visit the PEI site and read "The Silver Squeeze". It is probably the only totally objective analysis you will read on this subject.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 05:31 - ID#252150)
Mozel@ Thanks for the kind words
Your posts are among the few that I read. Who among us will be able to decipher the upcoming winds of change? IMO, we will need to be like the willow tree & bend with the wind. Those whom are sure, are destined to be
elimated. Darwinism will out.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 06:21 - ID#252150)
Mozel@Reread your last post & not sure what you mean
My position is clear. Japan is fuc*ed. No matter what they do at this stage, their finacial system/economy is hopeless. The U.S., regardless of their shortcomings, will prove to be the best model @ this point.
I've stated before: the U.S. economy/financial system is the worst in the world--except for all the rest.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 06:38 - ID#411331)
@Nick re "LEG, PGM & silver"
I just tuned in and found this reference to LEG which has a
PGM deposit with silver values? Could you comment on what LEG is
and provide additional info about their property?
I am a geologist, and when I read PGM in conjunction with
silver, alarm bells started ringing. Platinum Group metals are
high temperature, magmatic segregation origin type metals while
silver ( and gold ) are low temperature, hydrothermal origin metals.
It is virtually unheard of for these metals to be found in
meaningful concentrations together in a single deposit.
Are you aware of how much hype and crap there is out there on the
'net. BEWARE!

(Sat Feb 28 1998 06:54 - ID#222231)









(Sat Feb 28 1998 06:59 - ID#330175)
James...........................and *go gold*
Whats wrong with Kraft Macaroni + cheese ( huh )

(Sat Feb 28 1998 07:05 - ID#393224)
G'day rhody/Legend Mining
Metallurgical work is still continuing on the drill cores. This URL will give you a bit of background. On silver values alone the project looks to be grossly undervalued. They've only scratched the surface as far as exploration goes. If silver settles in at a higher long-term price--that will be a bonus. Cheers, Nick.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 07:08 - ID#26793)
Greenspan says currency board is equivalent of a gold standard

(Sat Feb 28 1998 07:18 - ID#26793)
Indonesia begins arresting food hoarders

Mike Sheller
(Sat Feb 28 1998 07:25 - ID#347447)
Never mind those pesky food hoarders, I say arrest those damn Gold hoarders wherever they may be!

(Sat Feb 28 1998 07:28 - ID#26793)
Mike: They are not hoarding gold in Asia

(Sat Feb 28 1998 07:39 - ID#330175)
Oliver..................and 'what else is new'
I have an e-mail for you in Sunny Florida but it is just sitting in the outbox as my Ontario ISP e-mail is down for the 8,479,028 time this year ( No ones! ) ---Go out and catch the 'big one' today!!

(Sat Feb 28 1998 07:43 - ID#330175)
Donald.................................................*go gold*(eh,Nic @C)
Mornin fellow ocean-fronter!---Weather in CB= 37 degrees,fog,drizzle and a sea of white 'ice-flows' dominating the view...over + out~~~~~

(Sat Feb 28 1998 07:43 - ID#26793)
Food price riots spread to Sumatra.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 07:50 - ID#57232)
AG: Gold Standard effective way to maintain stability of a currency
Donald: Good morning! Your 7:08 -- quoting AG -- By equating a cuurency board to a gold standard, effectively says that a gold standard is an effective way to maintain the stability of a currency.

To the defence of our Fed Reserve Chairman, who is sceptical of Indonesia moving to a currency board, it is highly likely that the Indonesian leaders have not adequately addressed the practices of corrupt insider business dealings, and hence the currency board may collapse after emplacement, even if the IMF did support Suharto. Hence, all of the blame cannot be placed on the IMF if the Indonesian currency board fails.

Donald -- I find it interesting that AG has publicly touched on all of the points that commonly come up on Kitco:

1 ) y2k

2 ) uncontrolled growth of private and public debt

3 ) possible sudden collapse of other currencies after Mexico and SEAsia.

4 ) Lack of savings out of the US markets

He has covered most of the bases, and can say 'I told you so' if a financial crisis occurs in the US.

I wish we had more people like AG in our government, who believe that the US dollar needs an anchor to prevent inflation. He has consistenly spoken out in favor of reducing the national debt, and undoubtedly is not happy with the fact that the debt ceiling is no longer a ceiling.

Would be interesting to learn of his thoughts about how Gramm-Rudmann has been circumvented.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 07:52 - ID#393224)
Centaur Mining
For N. Americans--here is another extremely undervalued Aussie miner that trades in the U.S.. Centaur Mining will be commissioning a Nickel/cobalt mine in a few months. Nickel shares are temporarily out of favour and that makes this company a contrarian's dream. Merril Lynch last September said about Centaur "... The stock is trading at 45% discount to our NAV of A$2.57... Merril's 12 month price objective is A$2.50/US$9.95 ( 5 x Aussie shares = 1 x ADR traded in US ) .

The good part is that the shares are now trading at less than 1/3 of the price when M.L. recommended them. They have also found huge new gold deposits to go along with the nickel/cobalt. Chart shows a bowl-shaped curve up with a correction the past 3 weeks. They are now sitting on the uptrend. This is a big company with guaranteed sales for four years--part of Joseph Gutnick's stable. As usual--do your own homework--I own shares and am obviously biased.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 07:53 - ID#26793)
OPEC in dissension and dilema over dropping oil prices

(Sat Feb 28 1998 07:57 - ID#26793)
We are 43F and sunny, going to the 50's. Yesterday was the same; even washed the car wearing shorts. Can't believe this is February. Been a really great "Winter"

(Sat Feb 28 1998 07:57 - ID#393224)
Small correction--now trading for 1/2 what they were in Sep't,97.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 08:01 - ID#26793)
Maybe Alan Greenspan lurks here to get the insights he needs. Hi Alan; how's the tennis game going?

(Sat Feb 28 1998 08:10 - ID#393224)
More about the Joseph Gutnick stable of 8 Aussie mining companies--which includes Centaur.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 08:16 - ID#238295)
Still looks like the gold bear is dying and $300 will be decisively breached next week. I expect bullion to approach $320 within the next few weeks, before falling back to $305 or so. From now on it will be higher highs and higher lows -- in other words a bull market.

This still looks like the final stock market blowoff. The next few weeks should be a lot of fun, especially for the small caps, but this party will end soon with a very bad hangover. Dow 9000 in March, Dow 6000 by June? I'm not predicting this, but stranger things have happened.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 08:17 - ID#57232)
Donald: Do you think AG teams with RR? Would he like a Kitco team to play? By the way, how's your backhand?

(Sat Feb 28 1998 08:18 - ID#393224)
G'day Ted/Hi K.
It was 97 degrees here a couple of days ago. Donald--we wash the car in the nude. Oh and Ted--*go gold*

(Sat Feb 28 1998 08:29 - ID#255190)
Did you roll out of bed and bump your head? Your'e a nasty fellow at 3AM. I do not have a pension, fat or otherwise. I DO eat kraft macaroni dinners. I had my money in stox/funds until they looked RIDICULOUS and then I cashed out. Now in PM's and cash.

Your attack on me is an emotional outburst that says nothing at all. If you dissagree then OK, tell us your counterpoints with evidence.

I believe we, in the USA, are at a peak and will experience a severe fall. I feel that there are a number of situations which will contribute to or exacerbate that fall. I can't tell you HOW it will be, but can tell you THAT it will be.

It seems that this disturbs your slumber and it disturbs mine as well. Who would want to see this happen to our wonderful land? Who would have been able to say in 1968 what the next 15 years was to bring to us by looking in the rear view mirror??? That person would have been derided as an idiot, that only good times lay ahead. Bad times always follow good as surely as good follows bad. We have had some good times since 1982 or 3.

Do you deny the importance of bond rates as set by the market in being the gas/brake on our economy? Do you deny that the flow of money is more significant a factor in prosperity than the presence of money? Do you deny that debt is the air that business breaths to stay alive?

Just wondering.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 08:35 - ID#255190)
Co-ed Naked Car Washing?

Nick@C, how could you! We always suspected something like this would come out!! Quick, man, grab a towel or SOMETHING!!!!

(Sat Feb 28 1998 08:37 - ID#57232)
How did the SEAsia crisis begin?
All: Does anyone know what triggered the SEAsian crisis? I know the rise of the US dollar was part of it -- but what I am looking for are the actual events.

Was it deflationary? Inflationary? Key businesses affected? Excess foreign investment? Were certain commodity prices dropping/rising, or was it just due to the run on the respective currencies?

Is the dropping price of oil in Venezuela, and Russia ( ? ) going to be a trigger for a crisis in these countries? My intuitive guess is that all one needs is for profits to drop in key businesses in the respective country -- hence it could be deflation or inflation that is the trigger of a financial collapse in that country. All that matters is serious loss of profit, and the loss of creditor support.

This is a non-trivial matter, as we need to be on the lookout for a debt deflationary crisis in the US. That would be bad news for gold stocks, as we have seen from the SEASian events unfolding. Even gold suffers for a while after a debt deflationary crisis, because no matter how high the price of gold becomes, most will be selling gold ( if they have any ) to buy food and shelter. After the debt deflationary crisis ends, gold/gold stocks will shine like never before. Hopefully we gold bugs will miss getting 'wiped out' by the financial equity market Tsunami.

Still dry RJ? How are your favorite surfers doing? I remember being in SF for a while, and hearing about surf lovers going down the cliffs to admire the big rollers. Every so often a big one would come in, and a surf lover would vanish, never to be seen again. There is apparently no way you can reliably tell the big ones from the little ones until there is little time to get away. Ever try to climb a 40 foot cliff in 60 seconds or less?

(Sat Feb 28 1998 09:18 - ID#243180)
Silicon Investor (SI)
Is this site worth the investment ???

(Sat Feb 28 1998 09:38 - ID#287277)
'light relief'?
"As of October 1996, at least thirty Web sites cited the First Bank of the United States as a modern-day American commercial bank. Their ranks include Yahoo!, the prestigious University of Gttingen Institute of Finance and Banking, PC/Computing, and CareerNet.

Microsoft even tried to interest the First Bank of the United States in Internet banking software -- read Microsoft's sales pitch!"
[MS has finally removed this 'glitch'..SDRer]

So, might the question be, if MS ( for example ) can't identify a Bank, can we put full faith and confidence in their banking software? One of the questions to ask one's bank? {:- )

ted butler__A
(Sat Feb 28 1998 09:43 - ID#317184)
sas@04:42 the silver squeeze

Milhouse, I'm sure D.A. can defend himself, but Armstrong's post had the numbers as D.A. originally quoted them. Obviously, Armstrong corrected his incorrect calculation afterwards, so they now read as you state. I'm sure you were unaware of this.

Loyalty is an admiral trait, but I think you might want to reflect a bit deeper on what Armstrong is really saying. He is going off the deep end. For his sake, I hope he used this weeks sell off to cover his shorts, so he won't be compelled to continue to sound so shrill.

While it is true that I agree with absolutely nothing he says, what I find particularly offensive is how he keeps referring to me as, roughly, "those" that claim silver has been manipulated for 15 years by the lease scam and the obscene short position. As far as I know, I'm the only one making that claim ( right or wrong ) . I also find him particularly sleazy for evading the gist of my argument, that silver has the largest short position of any commodity in the history of

(Sat Feb 28 1998 09:53 - ID#25588)
Silver, Gold, S&P
Snowbird - The Silver market
short term could go either way; my guess would be up. The low at 6.00 on the weekly chart turned out to be an almost exact .618 retracement of the wave 3 high made at 7.50. This is a typicle type of retracement in the silver market and mirrors the smaller moves from last year. If the market continues up next week ( I think it will ) the top should be between 7.50 and 7.75. Even if the market goes to 8.00 a wave 2 correction as sharp and deeper then we saw last week will take silver down to the 5.50 area. Any purchase under 5.50 will be a MAJOR low risk entry point. GOLD - Gold is always led by the gold stocks. The studdle moves or non-moves of the gold stocks will indicate the likely next move in the metal. Friday's 4.00 up move in gold accompanied by a meager 250 point move in the Xau tells me this gold move has no legs. The trend will not turn up until gold closes above 310 on a weekly close. The Dow and SnP may have a short term pull back to 8300, but after that it's back on track to 9000 - 9500 and 1100 -1150 SnP. The average investor will have a 20-30 % return in their portfolio by mid - late summer before any serious correction. Snowbird, you may want to take some money off the table and roll up to a higher strike in your oex calls.

Mr. Mick
(Sat Feb 28 1998 10:07 - ID#345321)
Donald - Is Hatt right about the chest pains he spoke of yesterday?
He said the emergency rooms across the country were filling up with shorts..............

Mr. Mick
(Sat Feb 28 1998 10:12 - ID#345321)
All: Bad news for Indonesian food riots...........
aturday February 28 7:39 AM EST

U.S. to Issue Blunt Warning to Indonesia

By Laurence McQuillan

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The United States will oppose the next payment of a $40 billion IMF
bailout for Indonesia unless President Suharto carries out promised reforms, a senior U.S. official
said Friday.

"If Suharto does not carry out the necessary reforms and stick to the plan, we will line up very
strongly against the delivery of the next tranche," said the administration official, who asked not to be

Other officials, speaking on the eve of a trip to Jakarta by former vice president Walter Mondale,
said he would carry a blunt message to long-serving Suharto about the need for political and
economic change.

"It's a blunt message, but this is the message of a friend. The United States ... wants Indonesia to be
healthy and to get that way quickly," said a second senior administration official who has helped give
President Clinton daily updates on the situation.

Clinton is sending Mondale as his special envoy to Indonesia, which is struggling to cope with a raft
of economic problems triggered to a large extent by a 70 percent plunge in the value of the rupiah

The International Monetary Fund hopes to resolve these problems with a program of reforms agreed
upon as part of the $40 billion international rescue deal. But the package, which includes
contributions from the United States and other countries, has not yet restored confidence.

The IMF must decide by March 15 whether to hand over a second, $3 billion, portion of its $10
billion share of the bailout. Release of this money could open the door to other payments, including
more than $1 billion from the World Bank.

Two senior officials denied that Mondale's trip bore any similarity to a mission in 1986 by
Republican Sen. Paul Laxalt who, on behalf of the then president Ronald Reagan, told Philippine
President Ferdinand Marcos that he should step down for the good of his country.

But another senior official, discussing the comparison between the two missions, said: "This is not
that ( 1986 ) mission, but the mission before that."

He said U.S. policymakers believed Suharto was reneging on a pledge to break up family-controlled
cartels and make other reforms promised when he agreed to the rescue deal with the IMF.

Various senior officials expressed growing U.S. frustration at what they saw as Suharto's failure to
grasp the urgent need to act.

"The question is, has he fully grasped the economic realities here? It doesn't sound like he has," said
one official.

"It is very hard for people within Indonesia to deliver blunt messages to Suharto," he said.

"He is a little bit insulated. I think one of the things the president wanted to do was, through ...
Mondale, signal the importance and seriousness of the message and the situation."

Mondale leaves Saturday and is expected to begin talks Monday. He will be accompanied by
Stanley Roth, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, and David Lipton,
treasury undersecretary for international affairs.

Suharto has irked some Western governments with what they consider inconsistent actions. On
Thursday, for example, he insisted he was committed to economic reforms but refused to jettison a
controversial currency proposal.

Suharto is studying a proposal to adopt a currency board system, under which the rupiah will be
pegged to another currency and cash in circulation tied to central bank reserves. Critics, including
the IMF, say Indonesian banks are too weak to cope with the plan.

U.S. officials said Mondale would stress that political reforms had to go hand-in-hand with
economic changes in order to establish long-term stability.

silver plate
(Sat Feb 28 1998 10:13 - ID#289468)
Gold substitute?
Can someone please explain what a currency board is? And how it works

(Sat Feb 28 1998 10:24 - ID#228128)
Armstrong and SI Investor
Ted Butler and Milhouse - I can confirm the numbers that D.A spoke about on the storage costs reported by Armstrong. I read them myself and wondered because they seemed very high.

Wetgold - I like SI. There are some good posters there that crunch the numbers and know mining geology. Also, people call management and report back on what they learned on the site. On the negative side, there is a lot of bickering there, more so than on this site if you can believe that. There have been a lot of disappointed people over the last couple of years. Also, it would seem that there is some disinformation that makes its way onto the tread judging from the statements/accusations that some have made. Some feel that promoters with vested interests are making there way onto the threads and pumping up certain stocks. My comments pertain stricltly to the natural resource section which focuses mainly on the Canadian juniors. I got on early and its free for me. Were I required to pay, I would probably think twice because I don't invest much in the Canadians at this point. But if I were putting some significant bucks into them I'd probably pay the freight.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 10:29 - ID#342282)
Preacher re T/A
Thanx for your's this am. Will respond tonite or Sun.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 10:37 - ID#222231)
What is the purpose of a central bank? If it and the treasury can not maintain the integrity of the dollar by allowing expansions, contractions, that usually cause disruptions in the markets, what good is it? Can AG say no more to Congress? That our system is due for a fall eventually under debt expansion? Or can he only say what will occur, and thereby put the blame somewhere else when it happens?

Our are banks any different than those of Asia? Do we not have corrupt insider dealings also? Are we not overexpanded with debt? I think so! Who or what is supporting the dollar? If it were not for inflows of capital into our bond and equity markets supporting this debt expansion, where would interest rates be? What will happen when these foriegners see that thier capital invested here is becoming diluted beyond repair.

Methinks that it is all a scam. That AG & Co. are in cahoots with politicians, that they will deal with the problem when it occurs and then it will be too late. After all, why was the Fed reserve act put in place? To keep our money system sound. Are they doing this? Nobody on this forum thinks so.

Are our banks sound? Do'nt they lower the reserve requirements or expand money supply when it suits thier purposes regardless of the consequences? And if he were such a patriot, why does'nt he shout from the rooftops that we are in a precarious position once foriegners stop lending us money? He talks in cryptic language before the banking committee and the public, and everyone says how smart he is. What a grand fellow. Bah, humbug I say!

(Sat Feb 28 1998 10:39 - ID#430232)
GRAPH plotting CRASH 1987 and 3 GOLD STOCKS
Here is a graph superimposing the crash of 1987 with the action of 3 goldstocks in the same time period:

ALTA ( smalcap, N.A, )

HM ( large cap, N.A. )

DRFNY ( S.A. gold mine )

Hoping that I can attached this graph

Good luck all


Psilver Psyched
(Sat Feb 28 1998 10:41 - ID#216217)
Armstrong is by far the most contrarian indicator I have ever found.
Besides the occasional accident, he is consistently far from home base. In addition, if you read his statements over the course of time, he flip flops in his arguments and opinions. At the present, one can only conclude by his illogical twisted arguments, at least in regard to silver, that he is being paid directly or indirectly to promote a position.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 10:48 - ID#280222)
option prices
What is the URL for Kitco option prices? Cannot access bohl...can anyone else?

(Sat Feb 28 1998 10:52 - ID#26793)
Steve Puetz mentioned again in Barron's
Alan Abelson has featured a graph by Steve in his column which shows the extraordinary growth in home equity loans and wonders how much of that money is used for stock purchases.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 10:52 - ID#222231)
Is'nt the Fed supposed to be independent from the politcal system. To me this means the Fed should be able to stop Congresses shennagins! I'm watching c-span right now, and the panelists are telling us how our budget is in balance. If this is the case, why does our debt keep expanding? Methinks that a propaganda machine is also in place and in cahoots with the government to keep us all FOOLED.


(Sat Feb 28 1998 10:54 - ID#285121)
Gold & Y2K

In Greenspans answer to Congress on questions concerning Y2K problems Greenspan commented that even a small amount of non-compliant systems could cause major problems. Gold stored in a safe deposit box ( preferably offshore ) could not be lost or misplaced by a computer. It's my opinion that as the economic colapse reaches our shores the U.S. government wil very quickly put controls on gold holding by U.S. citizens, probably in the name of preventing money laundring. With gold looking like it has made a bottom, now looks like the time to buy and store ( offshore ) .

(Sat Feb 28 1998 10:54 - ID#262242)
On the road
I will be in Pheonix & Tucson Az. the third week of March. Will be in Salt Lake City Utah the 18th of April. In May I will be in Knoxville Tn. In August, I will be in New Orleans

Are there any Kitcoites there??? Would enjoy meeting you. Drop me a note.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 10:54 - ID#330175)
GOLD is the headline of TODAY'S Globe + Mail..........Hi Nic-C(98 degrees here)

(Sat Feb 28 1998 11:00 - ID#26793)
@Silver Plate
A currency Board works exactly like a gold standard. It is very simple. Instead of gold a "hard" currency is used. A fixed rate is established between the two. Any citizen can swap one for the other. Bermuda is a good example. The Bermuda dollar is one-for-one for the U.S. Dollar. In order to print a Bermuda dollar the currency board must have a U.S. dollar on deposit. All the strength and weaknesses of the U.S. currency are inflicted on the Bermuda currency.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 11:10 - ID#26669)
Since I have no more money for PMs now, I've decided to collect .jpg and .gif pictures of coins instead. Any url's for good ones out there?

(Sat Feb 28 1998 11:13 - ID#233181)
AL and CAU
Have not found any reference to management purchases yet. They may go the option route as these would be based upon current prices and granting is due soon. Jan. 26 Ryback Management purchased 3.125 million shares for itself and the Lindner Growth Fund for 7.61% of available shares. Cheryl Martin ( IR ) can be contacted 303-278-8464


(Sat Feb 28 1998 11:13 - ID#285392)
Thank you APH
You are a treasure house of information.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 11:13 - ID#26669)
Comment re notice
Now, would anyone venture to say that a value could not be set on such coin pictures and a market developed for them? It seems as logical as assigning value to portraits of dead presidents.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 11:15 - ID#280222)
BILLINOREGON: Do you travel in your line of work a lot; or strictly for pleasure? ( or, are you secretly prospecting for GOLD? ) ...ALL: URL for Kitco option prices?

Lurker 777
(Sat Feb 28 1998 11:20 - ID#317247)
try- then click on bullion coins at bottom of page.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 11:25 - ID#288157)
Mike Sheller--Should you see this...

Is there anything major or significant happening in heavenly formations on any of the following dates? 8 April 1998; 28 April 1998; 7 July 1998. ( The dates are Eid-ul-Adha 4/8/98; Islamic New Year--4/28/98; the Prophets birthday 7/7/98... Many thanks! ( I would be delighted with a No, not a thing! reply!

JTF@My.Civil.Friend.At.Wondering This url has enough AsiaCrisis material to last through the week-end. Enjoy! ( that is perhaps NOT the correct word {:- ) )

(Sat Feb 28 1998 11:26 - ID#316193)
A Little Known $9 Trillion Bank, Can Anyone Help Me Research?

Lurker 777
(Sat Feb 28 1998 11:27 - ID#317247)
Ira Epstien- Click on Price Data and Symbols then click on Daily Futures Price Data

(Sat Feb 28 1998 11:34 - ID#255151)

Philharmonic Gold Coin ( please remit 5% mark-up to my account when page is accessed )

(Sat Feb 28 1998 11:35 - ID#22956)
It is starting to sound like June-Sep '97
Old Gold - I have seen this movie somewhere before...... ( hmmmmm ) ...


OLD GOLD ( outlook ) ID#238295:

Still looks like the gold bear is dying and $300 will be decisively breached next week. I

expect bullion to approach $320 within the next few weeks, before falling back to

$305 or so. From now on it will be higher highs and higher lows -- in other words a

bull market.

This still looks like the final stock market blowoff. The next few weeks should be a lot

of fun, especially for the small caps, but this party will end soon with a very bad

hangover. Dow 9000 in March, Dow 6000 by June? I'm not predicting this, but

stranger things have happened.


...... ( hmmmmmmm ) .....

Mr Oldie-Goldie - Where do you come up with your numbers like 320 in a few weeks and back to 305.....How can you predict this? Based on what? A feel? I am very curious. Is it fibo? Waves? Moon? Chicken Guts?

And with the small-cap blowoff stuff I get the feeling you have been on this forum some other form or another ( where is GSC anyway? ) . The stock market party was supposed to end in June, then September, then October, then............The record is spinning... ( skip ) ...the record is spinning... ( skip ) ...the record is spinning... ( skip ) ...the record is spinning... ( skip ) ... ( skip ) ... ( skip ) ... ( etc ) ... ( etc ) ...

Exactly WHEN ( ? ) will this party end?? DO NOT try to predict this market and DO NOT get in it's way......just say yes and get on your swimming trunks with some 'chump-change', jump on in ( waters nice ) and when you have had a nice relaxing swim get out dry yourself off and relax......

If you can't beat 'em join 'em. It will not go....



bring it on spuds...

(Sat Feb 28 1998 11:36 - ID#238295)
ABX lobbying to halt CB gold sales

Saturday, Feb 28 1998 10:05AM EST
Reply # of 7956

FINANCIAL NEWS ( G&M Summary 2-28-98 )

Mulroney trying to sell banks on gold
Former prime minister Brian Mulroney and former Bank of Canada governor John Crow are lobbying for the
world's biggest gold producers in a campaign to stop central banks from dumping their gold holdings.

Using Mr. Mulroney's political connections and Mr. Crow's entree into the exclusive club of central bankers,
the two promoted the gold producers' views in private meetings this month with German Bundesbank
president Hans Tietmeyer and Bank of France governor Jean-Claude Trichet.

A spokesman for Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp. confirmed that the two men are working on behalf of the
company and other members of the London-based World Gold Council, which is in the midst of a $3-million
( U.S. ) lobbying campaign.

The council represents the world's major gold companies. The unprecedented campaign is taking place against
the background of a major slump in the price of gold to just under $300 an ounce from a high in recent years
of $417 in February of 1996.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 11:38 - ID#26669)
polarbear re .618
Thanks for your most witty reply last night. I'm afraid I went to bed early, though and missed it. But by my calculations using this number the next shift of POS from the last little bottom would be $6.00/.618 or the ballpark of 9and3/4 which sounds unreasonably high don't you think?

And how do TAs account for anomalies? I'm sure that one could also fit various price moves to one of the Feigenbaum numbers ( most well known one is 4.669 ) or Gauss' constant ( 0.835 ) It would seem that whatever you use would work best in retrospect but would degenerate to noise very few iterations in the future, with probability theory providing more insight.

All very strange and new to me. I think I'll take some pictures of dead presidents to Barnes and Noble today and see if they'll exchange a book on TA for them. ;^ )

Lurker 777
(Sat Feb 28 1998 11:47 - ID#317247)
tolerant 1
A few days ago you posted the url for a site you liked but it did not work. It was in reference to site you previously gave me. Please post it again. Thank you.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 11:49 - ID#57232)
Debt/Money Supply, The Federal Reserve and our Government -- signing off for chores.
Pete: I must give you a short answer to your questions --must do chores or 'real boss' will be after me. Others here are just as knowledgable as I, or more so.

First, Alan Greenspan is almost certainly our most competent Federal Reserve Chairman. The Federal Reserve is independently chartered from the US Government, so technically AG, and the rest of the Fed governors cannot be controlled by other members of the government -- once they have been nominated and confirmed. ( Until their terms run out ) . I cannot speak for the competence of the other Federal Reserve directors, but I do not think they are as much like us as AG.

AG etal has control over the money supply, thank god, and not our 'tax and spend Congress'. I cannot tell you all the ways the Fed can control the money supply as all the terms make my head spin -- but the easiest one to understand is that they can control short term rates. Long term interest rates ( the more important ones for detecting trends ) are dominated by non-government bond issuers, and are hence only controlled by free-market processes. There is also the prime rate, discount rate, etc.

Congress has control over the spending, taxation, entitlements for Social Security, etc., but not the money supply. Thus -- in this situation where we have an unusually competent Fed Reserve Chairman -- we have a continual battle going on where AG is constantly asking Congress to reduce spending in order to reduce deficits. And -- most of the time he is ignored, and he must figure out what to do with the money supply given the hand he has been dealt.

On a slightly different topic, you should know that our National debt is about $5 trillion dollars, and until recently the Gram Ruddman debt ceiling prevented Congress from spending more ( without raising taxes ) . Now, unfortunately we apparently will not have budget crises like the one we had about 3 years ago where the 'tax and spenders' are actually forced to think about not spending. If inflation returns ( or a recession ) , we are likely to have another cycle of exponentially growing official debt.

There is another $15 trillion dollars in unfunded entitlement debt that will come due around 2010-2015 when 'baby boomers' like myself will retire. Believe it or not, there are now about 3 to 4 dollars going to the US Government from Social Security etc, for every one going out. This is because there are now 3-4 wage earners for every retiree. The other three entitlement dollars ( due to excess paying baby boomers ) has been used to keep the Federal Deficit as low as it is now. So, about $20 trillion dollars in debt will come home to roost around 2010-2015, regardless of what AG does. Right now, Congress could add 1-2 trillion debt to our national debt, and we wouldn't notice very much, until interest rates went up or we had a recesssion. Then we would have a major debt crisis on our hands, just as if our credit card company just told us to pay up -- now!

Only Congress can deal with the debt, if they wish to. All AG can do is tread gently, and hope that he can hold things together as long as possible.

One last point -- our fiat currency system with public and private debt is actually in better shape -- according to 'The Economist' than Germany or France. However, I am not convinced that those august economic gurus at 'The Economist' have all of the right facts. It is now also quite clear that we are in better shape than Japan, despite their high savings rate. So, at the very least, most of the civilized world is in the same boat with their debt-ridden 'fiat' currencies.

I suspect that Europe and South America will have major economic crises before we do, if the Asian Currency crisis spreads. And -- Asia will be the first to recover. Like 1929 - 1934, if we have our financial crisis, the United States may be the last to get it, and the last to come out of it. Maybe nothing till y2k or later. In the meantime, inflation will start to rear its ugly head and gold will ( at least ) slowly rise.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 11:51 - ID#257148)
SDR & Gold

I don't think anyone ( noone ) has answered your Date: Fri Feb 27 1998 13:09:
---- However, I would be very interested in any findings regarding theimplied re-pricing/valuation of gold vis--vis the SDR/ID.----

Some weeks ago I posted this little gem ( I havent' bothered to recalculate ) . The SDR "currency" has a precise conversion to gold: THe formula exists, though I'm not sure it has ever been used?\ft\aa\aa05.htm

The sale of gold to a member under this subsection ( e ) shall be made in exchange for its currency and at a price equivalent at the time of sale to one special drawing right per 0.888 671 gram of fine gold.

According to my ham fingers, that is 0.028571432oz @ US$307.50 why thats US$8.78 per SDR. unless my math is wrong. Anyone?

naked car-washing? I guess you keep "a wary eye" on pecker pecking magpies eh?

G'day, naked car-washing probably not so popular up your way.

I too love mysteries ( Ms Trees ) . Silverbarron has written to his senators, I am hoping a lurker who lives near St Louis may knock on the address that Trinovant found for AVDEC or give them a ring.
I don't think we've heard the last of this.....

(Sat Feb 28 1998 11:53 - ID#57232)
Logging off!
SDRer: Thanks for the SEAsia web site!

(Sat Feb 28 1998 11:54 - ID#336297)

(Sat Feb 28 1998 12:01 - ID#411149)
Where is cherokee???????

Tally Ho

(Sat Feb 28 1998 12:03 - ID#26669)
Auric, beautiful picture!
I tried to upload a picture of a "Republique D'Haiti Une Gourde bill for you, but I couldn't so instead here is a link to a site which pictures Lithuanian banknotes.

Reminds me of an old Javanese story for this slow Saturday, after which I PROMISE to leave and go shopping and not bug you agin:

Once upon a time there was an old woman who sold cakes in front of her hut in a small village in Java. A young man from another village chanced to pass by and stopped to smell the fresh cakes. The old woman, who'd had a very slow day, became indignant, demanding payment for his enjoyment.

It came to pass that such a ruckus was caused that a council was convened and the village elder was called to judge the matter. When he heard it all he asked the young man to show him his money.

The young man pulled two tiny silver coins from his pocket, about the amount of today's american dimes. Then the judge tooke them and made as if to hand them to the old lady.

She reached out to grab them but just when their shadow fell on her hand he snatched them away and gave them back to the young man. Thus he ended the lawsuit. He had made the young man pay for the smell of the cakes with the shadow of the coins.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 12:10 - ID#266105)
@fluflu birds, accountants & assassins on PCP

223 - gentle parable.

Ray-- always a beam, thanks.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 12:17 - ID#411149)
Gaston2- What is the purpose-message of your graph??
1987 was at the end of a big BULL in gold and the 1998 crash will
be possibly at the BEGINNING of a NEW BULL market I hope.
If the stocks do follow the market down and gold goes up, a good
reason to own gold stocks that pay dividends.

Tally Ho

(Sat Feb 28 1998 12:21 - ID#22956)
a golden bubbly floating your way...... ( gulp ) .

(Sat Feb 28 1998 12:27 - ID#31868)

This is the site.

I have a hangover the size of Montana, please excuse the delay.


(Sat Feb 28 1998 12:29 - ID#266105)
@4th & 1

tolerant-- hail MARY!!!


(Sat Feb 28 1998 12:36 - ID#253228)
"Step into my parlor," said the bear to the bull.
My work shows gold shares losing 80% of their value after this little bear trap that may last into next week. Fundamentally I am a gold bug, but I don't like losing money. Timing is everything. Yes, one day it will be obvious that the emperor ( paper money ) wears no cloths, but people are still blind today.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 12:40 - ID#23782)
I will be in a town near you for most of the month of March.
e-mail if you'd like to get together.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 13:03 - ID#401349)
@ Jeil
Your 12:36. What are you trying to do, man, instigate a cult ( goldbug ) suicide! Gold shares losing 80% of their value? So what's your call on the POG? Must be waaaaay dowwwwwwn.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 13:03 - ID#31868)
I tried, she wouldn't stop the cab.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 13:04 - ID#262242)
Something to sell???????????
Savage, I am retired and have nothing to sell. Nor do I want to buy anything. I am the manager of trusts and foundations so some of my travel is business related, some of it personal. I personally do not invest in the markets nor own any metals ( other than my wedding ring ) . I have lurked on this site for about three years and consider it a learning experience with some very knowledge people imparting their wisdom to us. I have gotten to know many of you through the written word and enjoy putting faces to words. The Kitcoites I have met can tell you that I am not selling anything nor "prospecting". The Lord has Blessed me with good health and an inquiring mind. But your question is a valid one, and I am happy to answer it. If you want to converse more, drop me a line.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 13:14 - ID#266105)

Yes, DeNiro picks his vehicles well. Really, on to
something else here and I MEAN IT!!

(Sat Feb 28 1998 13:31 - ID#31868)
I wish to say that I cannot access my hotmail account, as soon as I am able I shall respond.

Thank You....

(Sat Feb 28 1998 13:44 - ID#411112)
A thought,if the purchasing power of $20.00 in 1933 is now equal to $300.00 in 1998 who's right


(Sat Feb 28 1998 13:45 - ID#411112)
A thought,if the purchasing power of $20.00 in 1933 is now equal to $300.00 in 1998 who's right


(Sat Feb 28 1998 13:47 - ID#153102)
@The New History of America Based on Facts About Gold, Silver, & Debt
The historical documents speak
for themselves, if you look, you will find them. I found most of
them on the Internet. My work is not a "Global World Order" type
theory, I would not waste several years researching a subject to
prove what most people believe is a fiction. Below I will review
just a few of the unrefutable facts.

The facts speak for themselves; fact, the 1213 Charta took
place, the king gave his possessions to the Pope. Fact, the 1215
Charta took place, the king granted rights and lands to the
Barons, with the Pope signing off on the Charta. Fact, a couple
of months later the Pope declared the 1215 Magna Charta null and
void. Fact, the king started business's, called Virginia and
Carolina in America. Fact, these American Charters were
non-revokable trusts. Fact, the king claimed all lands in
America settled by his subjects as his as a matter of Conquest.
Fact, the king by way of the Charters possessed allodial
ownership of this land. Fact, by way of the Charters the king
retained for himself and all his heirs and successors 30 percent
of all gold, silver and copper, to be sent to him annually.
Fact, our fore fathers declared themselves subjects of the king.
Fact, the king had lawful title to this land, our fore fathers
could not claim what they never owned. Fact, the Revolutionary
War was over taxation, not subjection to the king. Fact, the
king ceded the land above ground in the 1783 Peace Treaty to the
States. Fact, the king did not cede the gold, silver and copper
to the States. Fact, the king could not cede the minerals to the
States because of parties not yet born, and successors yet to
serve future kings of England, as a result of the Trust he
created. Fact, the inhabitants were not granted anything by the
king. Fact, since the king retained the mineral rights to
America, no man, free or otherwise had allodial title to his
land, he was a mere tenant. Fact, the king allowed the
inhabitants of the States to believe they were free, just as with
the British people in the 1215 Charta and the 1689 Declaration of
Rights. Fact, for a short period of time, eleven years to be
exact, the inhabitants of the Colonies/States were declared to be
freeman. Fact, freeman status ended with the passage of the 1787
Constitution, because all State inhabitants were now declared by
their representatives to be citizens, subject to the laws of the
U.S. government. Fact, the States ceded their grants of land and
most of their sovereignty to the 1787 Constitution and U.S.

Fact, the king knew a central government was going to be
created by the States when he signed the 1783 Peace Treaty.
Fact, by the creation of the 1787 Constitution a Republic was
created. Fact, the Republic in no way was a hinderance to the
king in regaining his land, via. taxation and banking. Fact, the
1787 Constitution created a 10 mile square district, not subject
to the restraints of the 1787 Constitution. Fact, in 1789 the
Judiciary Act was passed by Congress, establishing courts of law,
compatible with England, so contracts and business would continue
with England. Fact, in 1791 Washington who once said "no" to
being the king, and also said he did not want independence from
the king, allowed the office of President to become a monarchy,
outside of the 1787 Constitution, when he declared he was
dividing the States into district States. Fact, the district
States are subject to the President, this has never been changed.

Fact, 1791 the Bank of the United States was allowed to be
chartered by Washington. Fact, the Bank was financed by the
British Board of Trade, that was controlled by the Pope and
Rothschild cabal. Fact, in 1811 when Congress refused to
recharter the Bank, England declared war on the United States.
Fact, in 1810 the Thirteenth Amendment was proposed, which would
have effectively removed the king's power of reclaiming his land
from the American people, by removing the possibility of
lawyers/esquires running and obtaining office in the United
States government. Fact, the War of 1812 took place, the main
objective was the burning of our documents in Washington and
increasing the debt of the U.S., so the Bank would have to be

Fact, the Jay Treaty of 1792 took place giving away much of
what was won in the 1783 Peace Treaty. Fact, in 1816 the second
Bank of the United States was chartered. Fact, in 1836 President
Jackson refused to allow the Bank to be rechartered, an
assignation attempt was then made on his life. Fact, since the
king was denied the taxation through his bank, Congress passed
the Act of 1845 his emissaries and loyal subjects, the Judiciary
( lawyers/esquires ) confirmed the Act of 1845 with the Insular
cases, allowing admiralty law to come on land, granting Congress
and the President even more power. Fact, England began using
propaganda through the news media concerning the slaves in the
South, when the king was the biggest slave trader in the world.

Fact, the Civil War ended the 1787 Constitution, first by Sine
Die ( no lawful Congress ) second, by passage of the Fourteenth
Amendment. Fact, the Southern States were granted a full pardon
by President's Lincoln and Johnson. Fact, the Southern States
retook their seats in Congress. Fact, the reseated Southern
States voted on the Thirteenth Amendment in Congress and was
ratified by the Southern States. Fact, the Northern States re-
declared war against the Southern States, because they would not
ratify the Fourteenth Amendment. Fact, a permanent state of
Emergency was declared and marshal law put in place by the
unlawful passage of the Reconstruction Acts. Fact, lawful State
governments were removed by an unlawful Military occupation, by
direction of an unlawful Congress. Fact, puppet governments were
put in place by the unlawful Military Occupying Commanders, by
direction of the unlawful Congress. Fact, the puppet governments
of the Southern States ratified the Fourteenth Amendment. Fact,
the 1787 Constitution by the unlawful passage of the Fourteenth
Amendment was forever dead. Fact, with the king again in
control, the bankers began the rape of America.

Fact, in 1869 one year after the passage of the Fourteenth
Amendment Gould and Fisk corner the Gold market for the bankers,
with the help of President Grant, which was known as black
Friday. Fact, in 1873 Congress removes the silver coin from the
market, that same year the crash of 1873 begins and lasts for
three years. Fact, in 1900 Congress passes the Gold Standard Act
and creates a gold reserve of one hundred and fifty billion
dollars, and allows the bankers to sell bonds to maintain this
gold level. Fact, in 1907, just seven years later the stock
market crashes. Fact, because of this crash, two death blows
occur in 1913, the Sixteenth Amendment is passed, and the
Federal Reserve Act is passed. Fact, the Federal Reserve Act was
written in England at the Bank of England by New York and English
Bankers. Fact, the Federal Reserve is a direct descendant of
England's Exchequer, which comes from William the Conquer and his
taxation via, the doomsday book. Fact, the doomsday book of
William the Conquer is the county recorders office today.

Fact, World War one increases the national debt, and see's the
passage of the War Powers Act in 1917. Fact, the true United
States Independent Treasury created in 1846 that dealt in spiece,
was abolished by the act of 1920, thereby allowing the private
Federal reserve board to control the money of America as the
fiscal agent Of the United States. Fact, between 1913 and 1929
the Bankers and the Congress enter into gold guaranteed contracts
totalling three hundred billion dollars when only three percent
of that amount of gold existed in the World. Fact, the New York
bankers via., fraudulent acts transfer huge amounts of gold to
the Bank of England by 1929, along with the debt of the U.S.,
bringing about the stock market crash of 1929. Fact, in 1933 the
American people are declared enemies of the bankers and the
Conquest and transference of America is complete. Fact, in 1933
because of the United States Corporation's insolvency, the United
States is forced to reorganize and implement the social and
financial programs mandated by the Bankers of New York and
England. Fact, in 1933 the king's hold and ownership of
America's gold via. the Bankers is complete, and America's death
is insured by the acceptance of fiat money, Federal Reserve
Notes. Fact, after 1933 the king's collection of taxes
increases, along with increased power given to the IRS, his
collection arm.

Fact, World War II increases the debt even further, which
demands more taxes on the backs of Americans, now that they are
co sureties for the debt as defined by the Federal Insurance
Contribution Act of 1934. Fact, now that the enslavement of
America is complete, the enslavement of the world was begun by
the ratification of the U.N. Charter in 1945. Fact, the United
States had to turn over 8 billion in gold to join the United
Nations just 12 years after there was not enough gold in this
Country, and it was declared having gold was a crime. Fact, the
Korean and Vietnam wars explode the debt heaped on the backs of
the American people.

Here we are, I have given you just some of the historical
facts contained in my research papers. Because they are a matter
of history and or Congressional Record, they cannot be rebutted,
I have done the leg work and have given the sources in my
research papers. Those that are ignorant of history are doomed
to repeat it.

By James Montgomery


Fact, the Bank was financed by the British Board of Trade, that
was controlled by the Pope and Rothschild cabal.

Fact, the true United States Independent Treasury created in 1846
that dealt in spiece, was abolished by the act of 1920, thereby
allowing the private Federal reserve board to control the money
of America as the fiscal agent Of the United States.

Fact, the United States had to turn over 8 billion in gold to
join the United Nations just 12 years after there was not enough
gold in this Country, and it was declared having gold was a

(Sat Feb 28 1998 13:59 - ID#411149)
buy signal
All- Looks like Captain Bill Buckler is giving the BUY signal on gold.
The Captain has a real conservative nature and when he says BUY
he believes it all the way down to his BOOTS. That don't mean
that somewhere down the road we may get aborted. Caveat Emptor!

Off the the BOAT SHOW for the PM.

Tally Ho

(Sat Feb 28 1998 14:03 - ID#31868)
my home is a place where you may forever eat, take shelter, and find comfort........

Kevan Sarkis Khanamirian


(Sat Feb 28 1998 14:05 - ID#22882)

(Sat Feb 28 1998 14:06 - ID#22956)
CNN...and CHP Officers
My little town may have made CNN. Today is the funeral for the CHP officers who died, buried in their car. The church is just across the street from my house ( a sand wedge shot ) . There are over 1000 officers from more than a half a dozen states here. Wild stuff for this sleepy little town. Did anyone see me on CNN?? I was wearing my 24k gold-plated double breasted suit... ( it's heavy but it'd baaaaad ) . Couldn't miss me.....

The day could not be more beautiful. 75-80F and not a cloud in the sky......I spit on El Nio today... ( it will spit back I am sure ) ...... say a prayer


go silver...hi ho.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 14:07 - ID#411112)
Mozel Thank you I rest my case,sheep to the slaughter....


(Sat Feb 28 1998 14:11 - ID#28594)
Aurator--Im in your debt for your 11:51

I obviously need to check my notes more often/more carefully.
The IDB states that The exchange rate for the Islamic Dinar vis a vis the currency of disbursement/repayment is based on the IMF rate for the SDR on the date preceding the day of the payment. Can your magic fingers knead that it something that tell us something about WHAT THE PRICE OF GOLD REALLY IS?

This is like being in some hellish maze box designed to test the mental exhaustion point of the rats! We're ( at least moi! ) are being lead around in circles...

Ive been looking at the ECU/gold relationship--there appears to be a much tighter correlation between the ECU and gold than gold/dollar. Not finished with this yet, but it certainly seems that is the case. I took it back to 1992, and by gar it is there! ( but what do it mean.... {:- (

My question: What is the REAL price of gold ? seems central to me because I become more convinced with each piece of data that we have a Potemkin $.

Just for fun--the best currency with which to start a gold purchase is the Cyprus pound: one ounce gold ( Friday close ) is 155.99 au.

Mozel@the.REAL.WHITEHOUSE Wow! ( Inelegant, but descriptive of one's reaction!

Bill Buckler
(Sat Feb 28 1998 14:47 - ID#256381)
Gold, Gold pictures, and the Asian Crisis
EBN 13:59 Since I began running my "Gold Bottoms" page, I have seen two Gold "buy signals". The first one was at the end of Sept. 97 when Gold spiked to $338. That one was cancelled after a week. This is the second, and like the first, it is not proven yet.

I like to be as "conservative" as I can, of capital. I was surprised to see the posting from Old Gold ( 8:16 ) , whose reading of markets I respect. He waded in with the prediction of a 9000 Dow by March ( it IS March here ) followed by 6000 June. Old Gold has also said we are in for a period of higher highs and higher lows in Gold.

JTF ( 8:37 ) Re: How did the Asian Crisis begin. I have a page up at my site titled "Who Says Nobody Foresaw The Asia Crisis". It consists of verbatim quotes from issues of The Privateer published between March 1996 and May 1997, documenting every step in the crisis.

The URL is

JTF ( 11:10 ) Try Monetarium

They have some very nice pictures of old sovereigns.

Lurker 777
(Sat Feb 28 1998 14:59 - ID#317247)

Thank you for the site. I am deeply concerned about our rights being systematically taken away from us and your sites have helped me better understand the problem. Are you concerned about monitoring from agencies on the Internet? Hmmmm

My concerns for the future of the U.S.A. have brought me to my current investment strategy and it is entirely in PMs. I am heavily invested in Phyiscal Gold but have limited my downside risk to less than 10% through Dec99 put options. I just got on board the silver train Thursday and it looks like $6.80+ from here. I do not own any PM stocks because I believe the stock market will crash 20%+ this year and PM stocks could fall with it. I am seriously considering closing my IRAs and paying the penalties associated with early withdraws. What a scam and I bought into it hook, line & sinker!
I believe we are at the crossroads of freedom and sovereignty of the American people. Our government is moving closer to a New World Order and at the same time taking away our individual rights as free citizens. Scary Stuff!

(Sat Feb 28 1998 15:09 - ID#330175)
EB...................*go gold*
Yup,I saw ya~~~~~~~~~~~some ass-kickin tomorrow!

(Sat Feb 28 1998 15:13 - ID#238295)
Bill Buckler: If you will read my post carefully, I did Not predict Dow 9000 in March and Dow 6000 in June. I argued such a scenario is quite possible, but then again anything can happen in these crazy markets. My objective was to emphasize there are VERY BIG RISKS in the equity markets today. And anybody playing should recognize them. Dow 9000 does look like a good bet this month and the odds are great we will be lower in June. But how much lower is very uncertain. My best guess is about 7500.

Your conservative approach to gold bottoms is appreciated. I do think this is it, but obviously it is too early to be 100% sure. But prices are considerably lower than at previous bottoming attempts -- in fact they are below the cost of production for many miners. The Dow gold ratio is at new record highs. And US world influence does seem to be cresting as demonstrated by the failure to garner much international support to attack Iraq.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 15:16 - ID#330175)
Aurator...................and NCW
Would need mucho anti-freeze first.....but it could be!

(Sat Feb 28 1998 15:27 - ID#238295)
European CB reserves
The level of gold reserves to be held by the European CB will set the tone of the gold market this year. A level significantly under 10% would be bearish and anything much over that would be bullish. Anybody with advance knowledge of this number can make a fortune by taking out option positions on the correct side of the market. I know that CB officials are supposed to be beyond reproach, but would not be surprised if this info leaks out well in advance of the official announcement.

Bears such as Andy Smith are talking about 5%. But others have mentioned figures as high as 25%. 5% would probably mean gold back down to $280. But 25% could trigger a huge rally to $350-$375. Clearly the $64 billion dollar question.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 15:38 - ID#330175)
@ stumbling towards Eddie's house-----(just say!!)
For a goin-away party-----and a frank-discussion about GOLD as it pertains to the present ( and ) geo-politcal situation that now currently seems to exist in the face of dire circumstances that are unfortunatley beyond all of our!

(Sat Feb 28 1998 15:39 - ID#238295)
Arrogance of Power
Maddy's Freudian slip. Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad.


MER - Washington - 26 February:
The Americans remain cocked...Madeleine at the helm.
They are insisting on a new Security Council resolution
designed to manipulate the U.N. behind their militaristic
"dual containment" policies. The intent is quite clear:
when the Americans can next manipulate things their way
they will attack, claiming U.N. backing. Prior to recent
weeks they even claimed that Security Council resolutions
back in 1991 authorized them to bomb Iraq in 1998!
What arrogance and hubris lies at the heart of the
ongoing deceptions, distortions, and lies, that flow from
the American government these days, with so little serious
challenge from the generally compliant and subservient
American media.
A few days ago on NBC's "Today" program, this is what
the American Secretary of State candidly, and maybe more
revealingly than she had in mind, declared to the world:


"If we have to use force, it is because we are
America! We are the indispensable nation. We
stand tall. We see further into the future."

Ms. Madeleine Albright
U.S. Secretary of State


(Sat Feb 28 1998 15:47 - ID#255190)
One more reason to run for cover.
When a nation becomes its own idol it always falls. It was so with England at the turn of this century. We are not immune to self worship and the resultant judgement which will punish it.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 15:53 - ID#28593)
Catching up (not)
cmh& Pondering the real distribution challenges of establishing a new currency--let alone a new Gold currency--one suspects that those difficulties would preclude ANY free-floating gold dinars, most particularly to anyone not a member of the faith AND the local murabitun. ( Take a look--if you read German--at that site; very detailed plans )

But it seems reasonable to believe we might see the sign in the window of local Islamic shops that are open to commerce in the ID. ( Imagine! Actually shopping with gold! ) I had noticed that you were NOT posting. I will be performing similar tasks shortly ( and not looking forward to it! ) . As I mentioned in the post, your feedback will be very much appreciated.
At the moment Ive bounced from Europe to Asia to investigate their historical link with silver and currency boards which use silver. Another surprising development...would VERY much like to hold things constant for 48 hours or so!

(Sat Feb 28 1998 15:55 - ID#238295)
Looks like US may be trying to foster a military coup in Indonesia if Suharto doesn't toe the line. If the big boys decide he has to go, he will be demonized a la SH in the press. Suharto has commited far worse crimes than SH, crimes the US has tacitly supported. But that could change in a flash if he doesn't follow orders.

2/28/98 -- 11:56 AM

U.S. commander stresses gravity of Indonesian

SINGAPORE ( AP ) - The United States has put a high priority on preventing Indonesia
from sliding further into instability, the commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific said

``The potential for instability has been high on our list for a while,'' Adm. Joseph W.
Prueher said in an interview with The Associated Press.

The commander-in-chief of the U.S. Pacific Command, on a three-country tour of
Southeast Asia, said Indonesia's economic crisis has caught ``the attention of us all.''

He pointed to a steady stream of high-level U.S. visitors who have visited the region
recently, including Commerce Secretary William Daley and Defense Secretary William

Former Vice President Walter Mondale arrives in Jakarta on Monday to try to persuade
Indonesian President Suharto to keep commitments he made to obtain a $40 billion bailout
from the International Monetary Fund.

Prueher predicted a ``time of turbulence'' in the world's fourth-most populous country
and stressed the importance of U.S. Involvement.

``It is being worked on the economic front, the political front, and the military front to try
to help Indonesia get a firm grip on their situation,'' he said. ``It's the primary discussion
topic everywhere we go.''

``We are staying in steady communication with'' the Indonesian military, Prueher added.
The Indonesian military plays a central role in ensuring domestic stability.

The sprawling archipelago has seen its currency, the rupiah, lose more than 70 percent of
its value since Southeast Asia's currency woes began last summer.

Runs on staple foods, bank and business closures, rising unemployment, and sporadic
rioting have sent jitters through world markets.

Suharto, walking a fine line between angry crowds at home and tough IMF demands, is
running unopposed in elections that open Sunday.

Though growth has slowed across much of the region, the Clinton administration has
singled out Indonesia for special attention.

``What we must try to do is help the Indonesians avert a crisis in every way we can, and
we're trying to do that without being too invasive,'' Prueher said.

The attention to Indonesia comes amid a restructuring of U.S. joint military activities with
various Asian nations because of the economic crisis.

Prueher said the United States is trying ``to work with the leaderships here to adjust the
size, and the shape and the timing of our activities with the militaries so that it is more
accommodating to a restricted budget on their part.''

Still, he added, ``U.S. interest in the Asia Pacific region, and especially in Southeast Asia
now, remains extremely high.''

The admiral's tour started in Thailand. In Singapore, Prueher met Singapore leaders and
visited the Asian Aerospace show. He was leaving for the Philippines on Sunday.

Copyright 1998 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be
published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 15:56 - ID#411331)
@ Nick re Legend silver and PGM
Sorry to be late replying re. your Legend stock. It certainly sounds rich but rather small tonnage. I am still concerned about the association of silver with platinum group metals in a single ore body.
The geo-chemical and geo-thermal mechanics of ore genesis tend to group
silver, silver-cobalt-nickel-arsenic-uranium, silver-lead, silver-lead-zinc, copper-zinc-silver, with assessory gold together in
polymetallic combinations, but finding platinum group metals present is
virtually unheard of. Nickel-copper-platinum segregrations are known from Voiseys Bay, Newfoundland, and Sudbury Ontario, and Norilst in Russia. But High temperature segregations of platinum group metals do
not produce high grade silver bodies, and the associated lead is OK with the silver but alien to a platinum ore genesis. Do you have any more
info re the geology? It is exceedingly unlikely that two completely
different ore genesis events, each of high quality, should occur in one
place, given that all ore deposits are themselves geologic freaks.
It is exceedingly likely that two ( or more ) manipulative stock promoters
could occur in one place, given that this species of human is both
common and typical of the form. Beware.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 15:56 - ID#342376)
Calling Mike Sheller, Calling Mike Sheller!!!!!!
In light of recent circumstances of Dollar decline, aborted attempt at War, Presidential Sex-Scandel, and Old Gold's last post, I'd be curious to know what the Astrological Chart for the Good Old U.S. of A. looks like for the present and near future. I think this country has had it.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 16:02 - ID#28593)
Old Gold, Allen
It is actually EMBARRASSING! And, when one has family and friends in other parts of the world, it is downright humiliating... For me, it is the most telling indicator of our WEAKNESS, this shrill, incessant diatribe about Americas Strength. and the bullying insistence that everything be done "Their" way...

(Sat Feb 28 1998 16:14 - ID#252150)
Allen@Actually my wife bumped my head
I apologize for being too emotional. I've been burned lately by being short equities. All the logical & sound arguements that you can come up with re: the demise of the bull mkt don't mean dick. Read Lewis Carrol- we are not living in normal times. How else could you explain how Italy will meet the EMU criteria for deficit reduction?

As for bonds, I posted yesterday my rationale for the $U.S. remaining the
strongest currency. I believe that we will experience deflation from here
on into at least the medium term. A year from now the long bond rate of 4.5% will look good.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 16:14 - ID#234218)
Physical PMs (Eagles, Phillies, Leafs, vs pre-1933)
I'm wanting to add to my physical holdings. The question is pre-33 Saints or Eagles, Phillies, etc. With regards to the confiscation laws, I'm not so sure the same rules would apply this go around. My feelings are if there is confiscation in the USA ( again ) no gold will be safe. Therefore, saints would not be worth the premium to acquire. Also, I'm not clear on reporting aspects of Eagles, but If there were gold confiscation it would almost certainly be by voluntary turn in or reporting. This would make using any gold for living in an economic breakdown risky if not impossible. My primary concern is for protection of assets & survival ( if neccessary ) .

Bottom line is, I don't see the advantage or safety in pre-1933 saints to pay the premium except as investment. I have gold stocks for investment. Am I overlooking something in my thinking?? Any comments welcome.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 16:25 - ID#28594)
Just one more thought before chores...

The next time we read one of the articles that breezily exposes gold as dead, remember that WE KNOW there is a VERY large segment of the worlds population for whom it is real and necessary ( Zakat CAN NOT be paid in paper ) .

When this knowledge reaches a broader awareness level, things will begin to happen-- This is development is the proverbial 'spanner in the works'! Or so I believe...bbl

(Sat Feb 28 1998 16:31 - ID#252150)
Aha@Oliver 1 Of The Elites Sunning Himself In Florida & Exacerbating Our Current Acount Deficit
Hi, Ted--Kraft dinner is great as long as you have lots of freshly ground pepper on it.

We are having terrible weather here. I was just gazing out @ the St of Juan de Fuca & noticed that the strong winds have blown Japanese plum tree blossoms all over my car.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 16:33 - ID#60253)
A question from the far past by Mr. JTF:  what is ANOTHER really alluding to?

JTF, I have tried to offer these thoughts as a way for many to understand why this modern gold market is not as before. Most of these letters apply to investors at the far two ends of the market ( see my last post by another ) . Many, from other places, do understand these expressions as given. For many here, I resist the replies to questions that offer results for gold traders. The intents and reasons are for persons to consider and see this market in a true light for today. Not for paper trades that will lead to certain loss for the future. I now believe, that by way of other posters, these thoughts are in grasp by

many traders of western thought. One may not accept the conclusions, but they can, mentally experience the outcome of the future. For this end I will now offer real direction. That of Why, When and How Much! I do this for those of Family and Country, and persons of Honor. Those that live to help, not take, in times of change! Some say this knowledge should not be in a public way, but I say secrets are for fools.

The next post will show some letters by Mr. Allen ( USA ) and M. Mozel. These best expound my way for your reason. It will be as the end of past thinking. For the time in the future, directly ahead, all will receive thoughts of Now and Tomorrow! For those of simple thought, such as I, the knowledge of the past, when brought forward into the future, will be, worth your time and consideration!

I will be gone for a time,

Thank You

Lurker 777
(Sat Feb 28 1998 16:36 - ID#317247)
I do not see the advantages of numismatic coins over bullion coins. If I collected coins as a hobby and TRUSTED a coin dealer it might make sense but too many people are getting burned because they don't know what they are doing. I buy gold for its content not collector value. I want the purest most recognizable coin in the world. This is why I only buy the Austrian Philharmoiker one oz. 999.9% pure gold bullion coins. The coins have the highest monetary face value of any gold coin ( 2000 Shilling or $160.00 U.S. ) and are the biggest seller in the world. I do not believe they are confiscable under current law because they are a monetary coin issued by a foreign government.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 16:38 - ID#252150)
Mozel@When you talk about golf in Japan, your arguement carries
the seeds of it's own destruction. Did you know that golf memberships in Japan are so expensive that they are traded on their stock exchange. Only about 10% of the population can afford to golf. Another perfect example of the futility of trying to harrass the Japanese into consuming more.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 16:43 - ID#217268)
Snowball @16:14
As far as US confiscation laws, the only recent precedent we have is when FDR implemented same during his administration. My understanding was that Numismatic gold coins worth greater than 15% ( fifteen percent ) of the price of gold bullion were exempt. IF that same standard were applied today, ALL post-198x bullion gold coins would be subject to confiscation ( American Eagles, Canadian Maple Leaf, etc. ) as their Fair Market Value is just about AT the spot price of gold. So, pre-1933 MS6x "slabbed" gold coins would stand the best chance of remaining exempt. However, there are no stated or implied guarantees next time. Most investors prefer MS63 and better. Cheers.

silver plate
(Sat Feb 28 1998 16:48 - ID#289468)
Thank you for the curency board explanation. Sounds like its only

for a very weak currency to do, if they had deposits of the "hard currency" and then its only good for the period the hard currency stays "hard". A poor substitute for gold and only a stop-gap answer.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 16:51 - ID#359316)
GOLD, wrested by brute toil from the Filipino hills...
7 page spread on the Filipino Gold Rush in the weekend magazine of "The Guardian", a British broadsheet newspaper. Front page of the magazine shows a miner chipping out gold quartz vein ore with a 6 lb hammer and chisel. I have never seen anything similar in a newspaper, could this be connected to a turning point in sentiment? Could be a coincidence of course. The narrative tells graphically of the real value of gold:

"Digging their way out of a hole? For many poor Filipinos, the gold mines at Diwalwal provide the only chance of escape from abject poverty. Though only few of them have ever hit really big veins on the mountain, their successes fuel the hopes of those left behind. John Vidal tried his luck too, but found the work back-breaking and demoralising- after a day's hard labour, he had just 4 pounds Sterling worth of ore, 40% of which had to be paid to the tunnel-owner."

"By 1989, up to 90,000 people were working Diwalwal's several thousand tunnels. Anarchy reigned both above and below ground. Two crude rules governed life in and on Mount Diwata. The first was that any gold found had to be shared betwen those who had put up the money for the mines and those who worked them. It was an idealistic policy, and one agreed upon from the outset by all the miners...
The second was the 'ton-ton' system of vertical claims. Anyone could register a claim without payment, dig anywhere on the mountain and own the rights to everything below. Whoever reached a vein of gold first could work it until his tunnel met another's coming from above. Where two tunnels met, a new boundary was formed and the two tunnel-owners entered 'negotiations'..."

"Never mind that the price of gold is plummeting to less than GBP300 an ounce ( ??? surely they mean dollars ) or that the government is seeking to expand production dramatically at the expense of the small miners: Blackjack is talking gold fever. 'It is a craving, a dream, that out of this place you will emerge changed. It strikes a man hard. It is a rush to the head. It is unexplainable happiness. All dreams are possible, everything needed and denied is attainable. Children can go to school. Houses, land, anything. Just coming here is a risk. You have to walk it. You know nothing else, so you want to stay forever. You can't take a break. You work seven days a week, more if you could' "...

" the end of the day, there is just one sack of ore to show for it... The sack is worth GBP4... It is loaded into a cylinder run by a generator, churned for eight hours and ground to a fine powder. Half a kilo of mercury is added to attract the gold, and then it is all milled again. After being diluted and panned, the 'pregnant', silver-coloured mercury, which now holds most of the gold, is squeezed through a fine cloth. We are presented with a minute globule of rough-edged gold. It is a moment of unalloyed, small scale, very human joy."

Lurker 777
(Sat Feb 28 1998 16:53 - ID#317247)

When will you be posting your THOUGHTS?
How do you feel about your posts being taken from Kitco and reprinted in other mediums?
How much Gold do you own as a % of your wealth?
Your call on gold not going below $280 has been proven correct. Does your prediction still hold?
Another: Hear me now, if gold tries to go lower than US$ $280 the BIS will buy it OUTRIGHT in the OPEN for all to see! They must! They will! I know.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 16:56 - ID#252150)
Jeil@If your work shows an 80% decline in AU stocks ahead
then I would recommend that you don't quit your day job. There is no way that the XAU could go down more than 50%.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 16:58 - ID#201238)
Having met BillinOregon and his lovely bride I assure you that if you have a similar chance it might cost you a cup of coffee for some wonderful converstaion Bill is not selling anything, just spreading goodwill.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 17:04 - ID#359316)
Truly, you are keeping us in suspenders.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 17:05 - ID#252150)
EB@Was that a full sand wedge or a 3/4 cut sand wedge
I would like to extend my sympathy to you & yours in that beautiful part of the world. I played the 2 golf courses in Fort Ord. The long 1 is very comparable to Pebble Beach, which I did'nt play. It cost me $11 to play there ( 88 ) compared to $100 at Pebble @ the time. I think that Fort Ord was closed down , so those courses must be public now.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 17:10 - ID#252150)
Old Gold@I've changed my opinion of M. Albright
Even when she was talking tough, I felt that she was acting out a prescribed role for the media. I really think that she is a nice woman & probably makes a great chicken soup.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 17:14 - ID#28585)
It is a strange PM world in which we live....

...the technical analysis from APH...

...the great oil/gold conspiracy theory from Another...

...and into this strange brew...

Coming soon...a simple, pragmatic evaluation of gold & silver from....

Farfel ( the Unpronounceable )

(Sat Feb 28 1998 17:14 - ID#227290)
ANOTHER: "It's different this time."
To all:

Essentially, ANOTHER is telling us that "it's different this time." That always gives me pause. I doubt things will be much different in the futue than they've been in the past. Human nature will be human nature and men will act as they've always acted.
ANOTHER must believe some group of persons ( oil ) can now project sufficient power to "make it different this time." But I doubt it
If I understand him correctly, then the oil states have cornered the gold market. The selling by central banks has been part of a secret agreement for the banks to supply cheap oil to the "secret persons" in exchange for the "secret persons" supplying cheap oil to the Western world. He says this has been good for all so far.
But now this proceedure is coming to an end. Oil will bid for gold in such a way that it will be repriced to $10-20-30,000 per ounce. Every country with gold in it will nationalize the mines but the shareholders won't profit from the repricing, but will be paid for their shares with a reckoned price of about $600 per ounce gold.
I said that this would cause the west to attack the oil states and physically take their gold. ANOTHER's reply was that wars are fought over oil not gold.
Well, that depends. Wars are fought over vital interests. 100 years ago noone would have fought over oil. I think it's mistake to say that noone will fight over gold. If gold is repriced at $10,000 per ounce, I can just hear the propaganda coming from Washington as to how it's in America's national interest to attack the oil states.

I just don't think things will go the way ANOTHER believes they will. We could see a bull market in gold that takes it to a new all-time high far above $800. But things should be orderly enough for a market to continue existing.
The U.S government will be in big trouble because of its debt. It could topple and that would cause great disruption. But it will take much for that to happen. And even if it does, the world will continue.

The Preacher

(Sat Feb 28 1998 17:16 - ID#238295)
James: Hitler loved his dog and would not countenance cruelty to animals. Many SS men were very kind to their wives and children. Regardless of whether or not Albright is a nice person ( I hear she isn't, BTW ) the policies she is pushing have cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of Iraq civilians.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 17:17 - ID#256326)
gold, spoos, and cotton
Arden/All: I have posted some thoughts and charts of spoos, gold, and a downloadable special report on cotton at my site. All free and doubtless worth what you pay for it.........;- ) Cheers all and welcome to the new gold bull market.

Bill Buckler
(Sat Feb 28 1998 17:21 - ID#256381)
Old Gold - re
I stand corrected. The use of the word "predict" was out of order regarding your posting on POSSIBLE Dow levels. Since one of the fundamental tenets of the economic school I support ( the Austrian school ) is that "the future is uncertain", I should and do know better.

My only excuse is that the posting was made at 5:30 AM

Your last two postings, on possible US intervention in Indonesia and on Ms Albright coming down with diplomatic foot in mouth disease, very interesting, both of them. One could hazard a guess that Ms Albright was badly shaken by her recent experience in Ohio.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 17:22 - ID#227290)
I think you and ANOTHER are onto something in announcing aforetime what you will be speaking about later. It does lend an air of mystery and anticipation to the process.

I'll see what I can come up with.

The Preacher

(Sat Feb 28 1998 17:27 - ID#238295)
Gold Train
Aurophile: Thanks for the updates and welcome aboard the gold train. Will start slowly methinks, but will be going at breakneck speed towards the end of the run -- a few years hence.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 17:36 - ID#256326)
Old Gold
Thanks. I been waiting for this particular time window for quite a long time. Very long cycles ( 18 years and 4 years among others ) are running out. Plus which sentiment in the general investment community could not be worse which is quite bullish even if having been so for a while. Another event occuring right at the same time is the double top on the Dow/gold ratio whose first time out was at the end of the great bull market ending in January 1966. ( I am grateful to guru master b b fisher for pointing out the 1966 ratio top to me many moons ago. ) Naturally I reserve the right to be wrong, and this may just be "another" bottom and not "the" bottom, but it is certainly worth a shot on many technical and "funnymental" grounds.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 17:39 - ID#238295)
This stock bull has been the strongest in history. Attemts to derail it have failed repeatedly. But when it finally does end ( and this month could be the grand finale ) , stocks almost certainly will go down in a very big way. Could be a crash or could be an old fashioned bear. But even a modest bear market will come as a crushing jolt to this generation of investors.

BTW, there does seem to be a close correlation between gold, stocks, and national morale. The 1970s stock bear and gold bull were characterized by surging national pessimism. Now that stocks have soared and gold has been smashed, US imperial arrogance is at a level never before seen. But the worm is beginning to turn again and these cycles will reverse again -- and soon.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 17:42 - ID#255284)
IMF ~~~~~Happy Birthday to youuuuuuuu~~~~

I have much to catch up on ( and home brew recipes to consider ) ,

SDR your 14:11
I shall get my fingers working on this. But I wonder if you could point me to the official conversion dinars: gold. Or perhaps, how much gold in a dinar? 'cos I'm too lazy to try to puzzle it out and look back. The more I look at this the more it does resemble Alice in Wonderland. I think at kitco we can assemble the entire cast from the Mad Hatter to the Doormouse and the Queen of Hearts..

IMF to celebrate Birthday tomorrow, I thought I should warn everyone in advance so you have time to send birthday cards and gifts of gold hahah/...

1947 March 1 IMF begins operations.
May 8 First drawing from IMF ( by France ) .

Makes ya wonder *why* the IMF was formed. Why France was the first recipient ? How much Nazi gold is in there?




I suspect this info will be in an old book on gold or banking that I bet some kitcoite has on the bookshelf.

Like many of us here, it appears ANOTHER is motivated by the pursuit of knowledge. Those of us who seek knowledge know that freely giving of what we have discovered is an essential generosity on the path to wisdom.

Perhaps one of our songsters could pen a song for this most happy celebration tomorrow, the IMF, just 52 years old tomorrow. What about it tolerant1? or farfel ( just post it once old bean ) or StudioR ( come back, your apologies have been accepted we all know you had good intentions ) anyone care to pen a verse???


One of my favourite Blakisms

The Road to Hell is Paved with good Intentions.


(Sat Feb 28 1998 17:45 - ID#238295)
BB Fisher
Aurophile: BB Fisher has made many valuable contributions to this forum, but good gold calls are not among them. Last summer when gold was around Hep's magic three-two-five, Fisher was projecting $500 gold by February. One of the worst calls ever on this forum -- a golden "puetz". But his stock forecasts were much better.

Wonder what happened to him? Guess he is lying low or posting under another handle.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 17:46 - ID#201238)
Aurophile - thanks

I tried to post a url yesterday and it did not work. Am I doing something incorrect?

(Sat Feb 28 1998 17:48 - ID#26793)
U.S. issues "blunt warning" to Indonesia.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 17:52 - ID#26793)
Camdessus in private meeting with House Banking Committee

(Sat Feb 28 1998 17:59 - ID#256326)
OLd Gold
b b fisher has been a gold bull for a long time, but his gold stock picks have been quite spectacular. I have not heard from him since the New Year, and I believe he is taking a sabbatical. ///Another market confirming a possible big bottom for gold is the $CD which made a long term double bottom last month, the original low at about 6900 having beemn in early 1986, the year of the end of bear markets for most commodities: gold bottomed in 1995, $CD early 1986 and most ag commodites during 1986, e.g. cotton, corn, etc. Then we have the US Tbond making a probable triple top, silver resting up from an earlier race, etc. I haven't seen any of D.A.'s recent posts, but I'll bet he's been going on about all this too.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 18:01 - ID#256326)
Is this it?

(Sat Feb 28 1998 18:03 - ID#201238)
Thanks, sometimes the answer is too obvious! :- ) )

(Sat Feb 28 1998 18:13 - ID#28098)
Aurator--Alice in friend, we have at least three players for every role! {:-)

ID--Cant get a price, that is what you--clever devil that you are--will be doing!
Now, what we DO know ( to focus on the positive for a moment ) is that, by Islamic Law the ID must have a specific weight of gold equivalent to 4.3 grammes....

unhappily, we do NOT known the fineness... ( perhaps you could intuit that? {:- ) ) )

And this repost, because Aurator has stated ( and shared ) something quite beautiful, with which I agree... ( Thank you for putting my thoughts in such an agreeable package! )

Like many of us here, it appears ANOTHER is motivated by the pursuit of
knowledge. Those of us who seek knowledge know that freely giving of what
we have discovered is an essential generosity on the path to wisdom.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 18:19 - ID#28098)
Oh--Aurator, Donald has a dinar!
Of course, Donald's is 900 years old; but, we did discover
that the weight was astonishingly 'true'. So perhaps Donald will tell us what the measurements are? Wouldn't that be a help...I don't really know what I'm talking this would be a really good time
to shut-up! {:- )

(Sat Feb 28 1998 18:20 - ID#256254)
Aurator, this is a url that SDRer has given before on the Dinar. It may help as a starting point.



DINAR 4.25 g 23 mm

DIRHAM 3.00 g 25 mm

FALS 3.50 g 21 mm

KHAMSA* 15.00 g 27 mm

Maybe it will be the starting point???

(Sat Feb 28 1998 18:25 - ID#153102)
I'm misunderstood. I was only pointing out Japanese consumption exists, but not as a mirror of North American consumption patterns.

As to your main point, that Japan is going underwater economically, I concur that it looks increasingly desperate for Japan and the USA. As I have posted before the two are in a delicate tango economically. Washington is cashing bonds which the Japanese are infusing into their stock market and banks. But, by the exchange rate complaints, Washington is being stingy in the conversion. For your extended point that the Japanese cannot fulfill the role of providing on the demand side, I agree that they cannot provide much demand for what they sell to others. And that demographics are very much against domestic growth. They make modern things and adopt foreign fads, but only superficially, I think.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 18:38 - ID#401237)

Mozel posted: Fact, between 1913 and 1929
the Bankers and the Congress enter into gold guaranteed contracts
totaling three hundred billion dollars when only three percent
of that amount of gold existed in the World. Fact, the New York
bankers via., fraudulent acts transfer huge amounts of gold to
the Bank of England by 1929, along with the debt of the U.S.,
bringing about the stock market crash of 1929.

Just change the dates and this sounds relevant to where we are today

The Take Over
Peter Sullivan, vice-president of the Asian Development Bank ( ADB ) and one of the participants at the meeting, said the surveillance mechanism was likely to be set up as soon as possible.

``We ( the ADB ) will assist in the initial year or two in helping to get it started and to provide technical assistance to the secretariat,'' Sullivan told reporters.

"We would like to start as quickly as possible."

The ASEAN ministers urged the G7 countries to open their markets further to products from ASEAN, called on Japan to take the lead in bringing the region out of the present crisis and urged the G7 governments to encourage their banks to maintain credit support for ASEAN economies.

``We want G7 to take a more active role in Southeast Asia,'' Mar'ie told a press conference after the meeting.

The International Bankers have finally forced their way into the Asian economy. Saying if you want our help we will control you - we will own you. As of late last year foreign banks can now own Asian banks and Corporations.
This development/agreement was only reported in the press once, that I have seen; however, it is of major significance to events taking place in the World today.


(Sat Feb 28 1998 18:38 - ID#28098)
Aurator--the first I found, and still like best, is

(Sat Feb 28 1998 18:58 - ID#22956)
on a Saturday stuff
James, it is one of those sand wedge shots that you have to wait for the wind to be at just the right angle and mph at correct velocity and then you wind up taking a Full, Hunkin', Gargantuan, John Daly/Phil Michelson swing just under the ball ( taking just the right divot ) lofting the ball ever-so-slightly through outer space and back down so it drops 7 feet beyond the hole and *bites* back to within 3 inches of the cup........there I go dreaming again. btw, you would most likely be paying about 200 dollars to play at PB now. You must get a room....or know Clint.

Now...Ted and I have been *POURING OVER* the Gold charts all afternoon... ( getting in shape for tonights bash at Ernie's ) ...and he and I concluded ( well, not really concluded, but we 'destroyed ALL evidence' concluding....or something ) that gold the gold bull looks intact........Ted had to bitch-slap ( eh, lgb? ) me a coupla hundred times before I FINALLY caved and jumped into the BuLL-RinG.

'go to' April Daily... it does look gooooood....uh huh.

Now go to 'Weekly' Gold and see what that looks like. Print it out and pin it to your wall for a couple o' days. Is this the BIG bottom?? Will there be another next year?? Will it go to 250?? It could ( ? ) ...

Man it feels good to be a gold-bull-bug! Although this looks like a bottom we must not think that it will skyrocket. I think it will have trouble at ALL resistence points and not make it to even 350 in '98. Perhaps the year after but it still looks bleak. JTF reminded us that Boomers DOW Money Doesn't 'run out' 'till 2005 ( give or take ) . This gold thingie will suffer from it. Not to mention the Asian thing. Donald posted a baaaad bit of news this a.m. regarding the gold buyers in Asia or the lack there of. Gold has historically relied on the Asians to drive a good portion of the demand and the story for them has been bleak ( at best ) . If this 'contagian' does spread gold will likely suffer more ( as MANY have posted here since the 'crisis' began ) . Many will look to it as a 'safe haven' ( for a portion of your cash ) but not an investment. This US Behemoth has yet to run it's course.

I will buy the dips on 'correction' and continue my $167/mth contributions to the IRA.....go baby go. Save 10% of everything I make...and buy macaroni and cheese till the cows come home ( that is food of the gods ) ;- ) .

just rambling...



(Sat Feb 28 1998 19:01 - ID#22956)
I still think...
that ANOTHER is, bb ( fisher ) ?

(Sat Feb 28 1998 19:04 - ID#401237)
The UN spare parts to IRAQ

Not only has Iraq not been using their Oil income for food and medical supplies for their people; they have not been maintaining their Oil fields and Equipment, now they want the UN to GIVE them money for parts.

BAGHDAD, Feb 28 ( Reuters ) -- Iraq is currently exporting 1.2 million barrels per day ( bpd ) of crude oil and has a production capacity of 2.3 mln bpd, Oil Minister Amir Muhammad Rasheed told a news conference on Saturday.

He said production capacity could be increased to 2.65 million bpd in two to three months if the United Nations agreed to supply Iraq with the spare parts its oil sector needed.

Rasheed said that under present circumstances Iraq would be unable to export more than $4 billion worth of oil under the third phase of its U.N. food for oil deal.

This would be well below the $5.256 billion allowed in the six-month period under a recent U.N. Security Council resolution designed to increase the amount of food and medicine Iraq could buy to alleviate problems faced by the Iraqi people as a result
of U.N. sanctions.

I think Clinton has met his match in the Shell Game ( Shell Oil Hmmm... )


(Sat Feb 28 1998 19:04 - ID#28585)
Hey, kid, we hardly recognized ya, it really is a surprise
To learn your 52 years old, ya seem younger to our eyes
And now that you've turned 52
And you're led by a Frenchie named Camdessus
It's time to reflect on all you've become
Our buddy, the International Monetary Fund....

Happy Birthday, Happy Birthday, IMF
You steal our tax monies till there's hardly any left
Dropping them into the eager hands of corrupt, national elites
Who buy American dollars, stocks, bonds and Ford jeeps.

Hey, kid, we hardly recognized ya, it really is a surprise
To learn you sold out to all those Wall Street investment guys
Why don't you tell it like it really is?
You only exist to help America's Big Biz
Your lies about helping suffering nations bring me to tears
Of raucous laughter, you'll never BS me after all these years.

Happy Birthday, Happy Birthday, IMF
You steal our tax monies till there's hardly any left
Dropping them into the eager hands of corrupt, national elites
Who buy American dollars, stocks, bonds and Ford jeeps.

Hey, kid, we hardly recognized ya, it really is a surprise
You're still good at giving ultimatums and telling pathetic lies
But what if the Asians get really bold
Dump your U.S. dollars, then go buy gold
I guess that would surprise ya, leave ya feeling pretty dumb
And that would be the end of the International Monetary Fund.

Happy Birthday, Happy Birthday, IMF
You steal our tax monies till there's hardly any left
Dropping them into the eager hands of corrupt, national elites
Who buy American dollars, stocks, bonds and Ford jeeps.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 19:12 - ID#256254)


(Sat Feb 28 1998 19:12 - ID#153102)
@Lessons from History or Gold in the CB don't mean squat
France 1790-96 The Age of the Assignat, paper backed by land.
The assignat was issued with church land seized by the government as collateral with a promise to remove them from circulation as the land was sold. Instead the government sold the land while printing more assignat.
First issue 400 million livres worth; final total 45.5 Billion. This cost Marie Antoinette her head. In the beginning one livre would buy one gold louis. In the end it took 12,000. Bonaparte cancelled everything and established the autonomous Bank of France in 1800. It remained independent until 1945 when it was taken over by the socialists who invested in printing presses. Francs in circulation by way of government spending deficits: 1945 500 Billion, 1947 868 billion, 1952 1,886 billion, 1957 3,500 billion. Franc to greenback 1945 50 to 1; 1952 480 to 1. Prices: 1945 5 X 1938; 1949 15 X 1938; 1953 20 X 1938.

Marshall Plan to France = $5 Billion.
Value of gold held privately by French people in 1958 as reported by Jacques Rueff to DeGaulle: $10 Billion

But they would not lend it to the government even for "rubber bonds", bonds supposedly keyed to the POG ( The government biased the POG to its favor, naturally. )

How was the French inflation stopped ? By clauses in contracts about price equivalence to things like wheat, electricity, cement, butter, milk, and CHICKENS. ( Somebody call Suharto. )

So Mulrooney and Munk are publicly soliciting support for gold from the Bank of France ? Like the French have no memory cells at all. Methinks all the world's a stage and there has been a drama written for gold that is on tour now. But, what will happen in the last act ?

(Sat Feb 28 1998 19:15 - ID#28585)
Hey, kid, we hardly recognized ya, it really is a surprise
To learn your 52 years old, ya seem younger to our eyes
And now that you've turned 52
And you're led by a Frenchie named Camdessus
It's time to reflect on all you've become
Our buddy, the International Monetary Fund....

Happy Birthday, Happy Birthday, IMF
You steal our tax monies till there's hardly any left
Dropping them into the eager hands of corrupt, national elites
Who buy American dollars, stocks, bonds and Ford jeeps.

Hey, kid, we hardly recognized ya, it really is a surprise
To learn you sold out to all those Wall Street investment guys
Why don't you tell it like it really is?
You only exist to help America's Big Biz
Your lies about helping suffering nations bring us to tears
Of raucous laughter, you'll never BS us after all these years.

Happy Birthday, Happy Birthday, IMF
You steal our tax monies till there's hardly any left
Dropping them into the eager hands of corrupt, national elites
Who buy American dollars, stocks, bonds and Ford jeeps.

Hey, kid, we hardly recognized ya, it really is a surprise
You're still good at giving ultimatums and telling pathetic lies
But what if the Asians get really bold
Dump your U.S. dollars, then go buy gold
We guess that would surprise ya, leave ya feeling pretty dumb
And that would be the end of the International Monetary Fund.

Happy Birthday, Happy Birthday, IMF
You steal our tax monies till there's hardly any left
Dropping them into the eager hands of corrupt, national elites
Who buy American dollars, stocks, bonds and Ford jeeps.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 19:15 - ID#252150)
Old Gold@I'm afraid you've gone too far--comparing a nice little old Jewish
lady to Hitler. Don't listen to what they say--watch what they do.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 19:15 - ID#177109)
A Goose
be back later, going out for dinar.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 19:23 - ID#253335)
I've read a lot of positive things about this particular one.

How about something negative about it?


(Sat Feb 28 1998 19:24 - ID#252150)
Bill Buckler@Ohio
I'm not surprised that an intelligent person like yourself, who is cursed with linear thinking, would think that Ohio was a screw-up for Clinton.
Put yourself in his position. If you really don't want to attack Iraq, would'nt it be a good idea to get some negative public opinion in front of the media. It was a stroke of genius, because Jewish interests control the media.
Clinton is probably the smartest President in history & these little bj diversions won't derail him.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 19:30 - ID#252150)
Aurophile@the C$
I don't think that it would be a good idea to make a big bet on the C$. As long as we have as*holes & parasites like Oliver who are arguing for separation, then the C$ will remain weak.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 19:36 - ID#153102)
Will the Golden Calf grow up to be a bull or be the dinar of the bear ? It's all in the damned script if we could just anticipate.

How about this for a three Act drama ? first Act get them in debt for dollars; then in Act II when they are down, buy what they have for pennies on the dollar ; then tie the dollar to gold in Act III, so in the end you loaned paper which must be paid back in gold. Is it comedy or tragedy ?

Asia Development Bank: yes. News like who owns what should not be printed often, if at all.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 19:39 - ID#284255)
ANOTHER's transcipts updated
How can I charge for what I get for free.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 19:41 - ID#153102)
@sharefin How to charge for what you get for free.
Open a bank. Start a government.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 19:45 - ID#153102)
You are too generous. BTW, you should know, I'm not James Montgomery.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 19:50 - ID#284255)
Note the bottom line
INVESTECH FINANCIAL UPDATE, Saturday, February 28th, 1998
Among key developments this week...
- It's acknowledged that even after a $57B bailout in December, Korea may be facing a new debt showdown in March when the 1st qtr draws to a close.
- Here in the U.S., Consumer Sentiment soared to a record ( 45-year ) high, and Consumer Confidence also hit a new record ( 30-year ) high. Ironically, the spread between 'FUTURE' expectations hit a new 24-year low... continuing to warn of recession in 1999. It's truly a "play today for tomorrow we pay" attitude.
- In Greenspan's testimony this week, he confirmed our viewpoint of "finely balanced, though powerful forces." In other words the Asian deflation may be offsetting the very tight labor market, but the end will likely be with a violent swing in one direction or the other.
- Based on more than just consumer confidence/sentiment, we think that will be with a surprise tightening by the Federal Reserve in April or May. Chicago's preliminary NAPM report came in on the strong side. The Future Inflation Gauge from ECRI just rebounded almost 3pts to an 11-week high. And the 30-year bond yield has risen back to 5.93%... where it entered 1998.
Bottomline -- we are forced to still wait and watch for bear market confirmation from key indicators, which is still not there in breadth, leadership or monetary models. However, this next week is a big one with the NAPM report on Monday and employment report on Friday. ANY surprises will be on the strong side, which would be bad news for bonds... and a new dark cloud over Wall Street's exuberant party.
LONG-TERM & MUTUAL FUND INVESTORS... no change in our 100% T-bill allocation. Those still riding positions in this frothy market should take note - any shift in monetary climate will have a BIG impact, so stay in touch with this hotline. Finally, due to factors mentioned above, we are considering positions in gold stocks and will announce changes on this hotline.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:08 - ID#26793)
S&P cuts Philippine currency ratings

(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:10 - ID#256326)
James: I try to ignore the "funnymentals" or politics when analyzing an investment, except for tiny companies where that's all there is. I don't have a large portion of my net worth in the northern dinar, but I surely would not short it. Like it or not it still is a better index of commodities than the CRB Index.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:11 - ID#284255)
Sound urserous to me.

Centaur has a call warrant out.
CTRWXA 1:1 @ $1 expiry on 29/4/99
Its last run up was from 9c to 28c.
Great leaverage for the next run up.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:11 - ID#347447)
Crazy Times
re your 15:26, as to what's in store for the U.S. of A astrologically... I repeat from the December 31 Astrological Investor Feature at the Gold ( Bart will pardon the expression ) Eagle website...

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA - And last but not least in our list of nations, the USA gets a booming T Square from Saturn to its natal Mercury/Pluto opposition. This happens from mid April to later in May. Last time this happened was the summer of '68, which, if we recall correctly, turned out to

be long and hot domestically, and not a bad season for silver. Face

the music time. All told, April and May are looming as important

months in '98, worldwide!

BILL BUCKLER: I subscribe to the Austrian School as well, but as an astrologer it is my DUTY to make predictions. It's a tough dangerous job, but SOMEONE has to do it. ( ;- )

(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:18 - ID#284255)
still no luck
Have emailed you a few times but always comes back claiming the email address incorrect.
And this is when I use the 'Reply to Author' option.
I do receive your emails though.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:18 - ID#347447)
Dinar Bell
Is there an exchange, perhaps a souk, where one can trade Dinar Futures? Isn't it high time ( Sorry Ted ) that Bart included the spot price of the Dinar in the kitco masthead? Does anyone think CNBC might be convinced to report on the Dinar...but not during Power LUNCH ( Can't you just imagine Sue Herrera giving the news at Dinar time? And to think Steve Puetz panned her in favor of Maria Bartiromo ( ( not that I have anything negative to say about HER ) ) but I notice that Sue Herrera is still going strong while Steve Puetz has evaporated from our consciousness save for an occasional LGB barb ) . Call me anything you like, brother and sister kitcoites, but don't call me late for.... ( all together now... ) D-I-N-A-R.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:19 - ID#26793)
My G'haznavid gold Dinar is 23mm diameter ( about the size of a U.S. 25c piece ) but is half the thickness of same. I don't have a scale to weigh it. Minted between 1059 and 1098AD by the Conqueror of Kings, Sayyid of Sultans, Ibrahim.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:22 - ID#26793)
I am having the reverse problem with GNutz. I can receive his but he does not get mine. I will talk to my ISP on Monday.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:27 - ID#26793)
@Mike Sheller
Did you see my post this morning about Steve Puetz? He was written up in Barron's ( favorably ) with his chart on home equity loans printed. The story was about home equity loans being used by dipsters to buy stocks since 1994. The chart went straight up! Astounding.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:30 - ID#347447)
No I did not see your post about Puetz in Barron's. I must say I take my hat off to him for appearing in that august journal. Now I must eat my words. Yummmm. Way to go Steve. But I still prefer Sue Herrera to Maria Bartiromo.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:31 - ID#22956)
If we view the gold/dow chart doesn't the ratio have Plenty of room to go? I see 40+ if you continue the line. Does this seem Unreasonable? Preposterous? Scary? I wonder what road we must travel to get there....if we get there at all. What do you think? the charts

Mike Sheller
(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:34 - ID#347447)
BTW - I am really accepting that el Nino has affected our weather up here. I am sure it has been as exquisite for a January and February on your side of the Sound as mine. There are flowers coming up in my back yard!

(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:35 - ID#401460)
James (Bill Buckler@Ohio)

I have mixed thoughts on Clintons screw-up at Ohio State. First, many feel that all of legal problems have diverted his and his key peoples focus away from many matters including Iraq. Clinton is very smart when it comes to staging a town meeting normally he stacks the audience in his favor, this would indicate that he stacked the audience for the reaction we saw - anti war; and as we all know,he certainly knows how to do that as he and all of his people did so well in the late 60s and early 70s.

Ohio has a well known history for anti-war feelings, remember Kent State. OSU also had very large demonstrations against the war - National Guard tear gas and the whole nine yards. OSU has a very large Jewish student population, many from NY.

However, it is also a well known fact that Clinton has a terrible record on foreign affairs. He has screwed up one international incident after another. He was probably wetting his pants when he realized he was about to start WWIII on his own and alone.

Be careful not to give this guy to much credit, there have been many people who have made him look good and who have kept his rear end out of trouble, and many of them are starting to jump ship. The only reason the SOB is still in office is that everyone is scared to death of putting Gore in the office of President.


(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:37 - ID#257136)
Sharefin, Donald and GNutz. FWIW--
I've been having trouble getting my server to accept email addresses
Probably no help, but .......

(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:38 - ID#238295)
James; Albright obviously is no Hitler, but the policies she pushes are brutal in the extreme.

To bring a hidden issue out of the closet, one of the severe problems facing the gold market today is that many traditionally pro-gold Jews have abandoned it. With names such as Gold and Goldstein, Jews have traditionally played a big role in the gold trade. But now they identity totally with America, and will fight tooth and nail against anything which threatens American financial or military supremacy. And that includes a strong gold bull market. Peter Monk's efforts to help gold do not reflect the views of most moneyed Jews.

BTW, being Jewish myself, I feel free to "tell it like it is."

(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:39 - ID#284255)
Want a back-up email service for free?
Thanks and maybe this could be worth a try.
Free email address at Yahoo.
Good for a backup and can be accessed from any computer.

White House Denies 'Kiss' Strategy

Take a look at that smile and think about what it means.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:40 - ID#280222)
I did not mean to imply that BILLinOREGON had anything to sell. It was merely my lame attempt at humor. I was envisioning the wandering prospector, with faithful burro in tow, scouring the west for a glimpse of "color". Sorry, Bill, I'll try to keep a better rein on my humorous side.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:44 - ID#26793)
If we assume that the progress of mankind is generally up and want to factor in some genuine non-inflationary added value to American companies , the answer has to be yes. The Dow/Gold Ratio can go higher because American business is worth more.

On the other hand, ( I'm a two-handed non-economist ) American business is woefully over indebted vs: both 1929 and 1966. As is the current market participant. Leveraged to the hilt ( ref. the Steve Puetz graph in Barron's ) with credit card debt, home equity debt, faced with downsizing and on-coming deflation etc. For that reason I don't see lot of upside for stocks. If gold drops lower that could hurt the ratio but after 18 years and 70% I don't see much downside for gold. If gold goes lower it is likely that its purchasing power will increase as it drops. That is difficult for a lot of people to understand.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:52 - ID#22956)
Donald the Left-Handed-Non-Economist...(that has a ring to it).
It'll come when ya' least expect it, eh?..... ( Krash! ) ( ? ) ( ! ) . prepare for the day ( s ) .


could you make that 'gold's purchasing power increases' post again? I was staring at the pretty Betty during that class. Sorry. And I can be 'slow' sometimes. Thanks.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:59 - ID#240316)
Mike Sheller - Your insight would be appreciated.
Just out of curiosity, I took a look at the current transets to NYSE Venus. Lo and behold I saw that Jupiter ( that ol bringer of good times ) was sextile ( a good aspect ) the NYSE Venus in the early a.m. yesterday. Just a coincidence, or does this say anything about how long the good influences will last? After all, Jupiter does move on along. Was the arrival of Jupiter just a vacation from the bear, with the bear returning with the departure of Jupiter?

(Sat Feb 28 1998 20:59 - ID#348286)
@CNBC Commodities Quotes
Does anyone know what happened to the this URL, No functione......

(Sat Feb 28 1998 21:06 - ID#153102)
@The Gold Drama
I apologize to all for refering to the greenback as a dollar. Irrational exhuerance brought on by the muse is my only excuse.

And in Act III, the dramatic problem still exists of how to tie the greenback to gold. Since there are far too many little greenies on the globe. $100 old greenbacks to one new greenback with international gold redeemability ? After Japan has cashed all its Treasuries ?

(Sat Feb 28 1998 21:06 - ID#284255)
Dow/Gold charts
Dow/Gold long term chart

Dow/Gold short term chart

(Sat Feb 28 1998 21:07 - ID#252150)
Good News From Victoria B.C.
The U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln is in town & my wife just reported to me that she heard on the radio that 2 sailors from the Lincoln saved the life of an individual in a coffee shop. Apparently they happened upon him in the washroom, on the floor unconcious & resuscitated him. Probably a drug addict that will cost the taxpayers of B.C. 100s of thousands of $ before darwinism outs, but their hearts were in the right place.

The Lincoln is an incredible sight. Several football fields long & a few basketball courts wide. It makes me wonder how the U.S. can afford to maintain such an incredible military presence. When I'm feeling depressed I realize that they can't.

This is the 2nd year in a row that the Lincoln visited our fair City. Maybe the Victoria girls are easy. Oh well! what are good neighbours for.
I remember fondly my visits to American ports. Key West, Charleston. Norfolk, Washington D.C. ( where I understand some guys are still making out like crazy ) , Newport, Portland, San diego & Honululu. be young again in a foreign port with a wallet full of $ & no responsibilities or anyone to answer to. And in my day the C$ was almost @ par.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 21:08 - ID#411112)
Question to all:did America sell out to the Commies,South Africa if so why?

(Sat Feb 28 1998 21:09 - ID#26793)
During a deflation things that were traditionally purchased with credit such as homes decline sharply as bankers are terrified to lend and homeowners mail in the keys and go back to live with the folks. In 1939 my father sold the house we lived in for $2000, a mere 57.14 ounces of gold. The house is still there and probably worth $70,000 now or 233 ounces of gold.

Adding mor to my earlier post. I feel the U.S. is now a declining power; that has not hit home yet but it will have an impact soon. Secondly, in 1929 we were still on the gold standard. In 1966 we had gold exchange standard with foreign central banks. Look at your 100 year Dow/Gold chart. Note that the big dropoff in the ratio came 5 years after the 1966 peak, in 1971. Almost to the day Nixon pulled the switch on the American execution. This time there is a lot of evidence to safely say "it's different".

(Sat Feb 28 1998 21:11 - ID#401460)
OSU & Clinton

From my earlier post:
OSU has a very large Jewish student population, many from NY.

I did not complete the thought; during the 60s and 70s at OSU, many of the Jewish student body were involved in the anti war movement on campus as they were on many campuses, however many of the questioners at the town meeting were an unusual mix of people, including a WWII/Korean veteran. I don't feel that the general student body including the Jewish students had made up their mind on the matter at that point in time.

There were hecklers up in higher seats that may have been planted.

Who Knows?


(Sat Feb 28 1998 21:16 - ID#280245)
REPOST--so we all have the same 'Playbill'...
Date: Sat Feb 28 1998 11:25 SDRer__A ( Mike Sheller--Should you see this... ) ID#288157:
Is there anything major or significant happening in heavenly formations on any of the following dates?
8 April 1998;
28 April 1998;
7 July 1998. ( The dates are Eid-ul-Adha 4/8/98; Islamic New Year--4/28/98; the Prophets birthday 7/7/98... Many thanks! ( I would be delighted with a No, not a thing! reply!

Mike Sheller replied to Crazy Times as follows--

Mike Sheller ( Crazy Times ) ID#347447:
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA - And last but not least in our list of nations, the USA gets a booming T Square from Saturn to its natal Mercury/Pluto opposition. This happens from mid April to later in May. Last time this happened was the summer of '68, which, if we recall correctly, turned out to be long and hot domestically, and not a bad season for silver. Face the music time. All told, April and May are looming as important months in '98, worldwide!

Now, I neither believe nor disbelieve in astrology ( I dont know enough about it ) ; but one thing I dearly dislike is standing knee deep in coincidence!

(Sat Feb 28 1998 21:17 - ID#348286)
@Gold Standard?
mozel: If the Gold price were fixed somewhere over $20000. / ounce,
then the USD could be fully backed/redeemed for Gold.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 21:21 - ID#252150)
I'm an on line subscriber to Barron's & I have'nt even looked at it today, but if they are publishing Puetz's nonsense, then I think I'll cancel my subscription.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 21:24 - ID#398105)
rhody (@Nick re "LEG, PGM & silver")


Gold, Silver and PGE may occur together in polymetallic veins, breccias and replacement bodies.

In the case of the Munni Munni ultramafic/mafic complex and its associated mineralisation, the exploration history shows that in 1987 Agip Australia Pty Ltd investigated major lineaments at Munni Munni as potential loci for hydrothermal mineralisation, in particular the Munni Munni fault which post dates the actual Munni Munni complex.

These investigations resulted in spectacular secondarily enriched silver contents with an unusual polymetallic association on the Munni Munni Fault, near the basal contact of the ultramafic zone with the granite country rock.

Drill hole PHMM9 contained 6 m @ 3478 ppm Ag, including a peak of 2 m @ 6800 ppm Ag. Other anomalous values were in Cu, Ti, Ni, Pb, MO, Au, Pd.

It should be emphasised that exploration is STILL at an early stage, with ECM and LEG focused upon grade verification at this stage. There is ample scope for increases in tonnes at a later stage of evaluation.

We are "informed" that there are seriously anomalous Rhodium values, yet to be verifiied.

Principal reference:

AGSO Bulletin 242
Petrolgy and platinum group element geochemistry of Archaean layered mafic-ultramafic intrusions, west Pilbara Block, Western Australia.
ISBN 0 644 24907 2

(Sat Feb 28 1998 21:25 - ID#252150)
Old Gold@I value your posts
I have mentioned here that I've read Noam Chomsky & am sure he tells it like it is. I appreciate your efforts at tilting at windmills.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 21:36 - ID#26793)
As I have said before about Steve Puetz, he is great with finding raw data and spotting the problems. He understands what is wrong and what the outcome will be. His mistake is in placing exact dates on those outcomes. No one can do that. This stuff is not like physics...apply so much heat and it reaches a exact pre-determined melting point. We are trying to measure confidence. There is absolutely no difference between a U.S. dollar and an Indonesian Rupiah. The backings are identical; yet confidence values one greater than the other.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 21:37 - ID#398105)
MoReGoLd (@Gold Standard?)................swings and round-abouts..........

Should, as Another suggets, OIL will bid for GOLD directly, would the US Government have no option but to put the US Dollar onto a GOLD standard ?.

Lurker 777
(Sat Feb 28 1998 21:40 - ID#317247)
What nonsense?

Date: Sat Feb 28 1998 10:52
Donald__A ( Steve Puetz mentioned again in Barron's ) ID#26793:
Alan Abelson has featured a graph by Steve in his column which shows the extraordinary growth in home equity loans and wonders how much of that money is used for stock purchases.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 21:50 - ID#398105)
It's the same "OLD" story.......a case of musical chairs.......

Set the market up, set gold down, collapse the market, who then holds the GOLD ?!

Same principals today apply to the US markets.

Who will end up holding the bulk of the gold ? Those who set the gold price daily !!!

So, when the music stops............

(Sat Feb 28 1998 22:03 - ID#283121)
PEI / M Armstrong

Ted Butler : It is impossible that Armstrong would report incorrect storage costs for silver. One thing I will say, however, is that information published by PEI has extremely poor editing and often contains numerous typos.

There is so much mis-information regarding silver at the moment. It seems that if someone holds a contrary view, then they must have an ulterior motive. To correct one popular misconception, PEI shorted silver at around 6.00 at the end of Dec. This position was closed out at a good profit by mid Jan. As a client of PEI, I benefited from this trade. They may have shorted silver again during the past week, but I can't confirm this right now ( I'll check during the next 2 days ) . If they did then the position would have been closed out on Thur and they would now be flat. If silver exceeds certain reversal points determined by their computer models, then they will go long. There is no emotion involved in PEI's trading and their performance over many years has been exemplary ( as determined by realised profits ) .

A record short position in silver = a record long position in silver. This point is covered in Armstrong's analysis. The question is, who holds the respective positions and why.

If the price changes alone don't highlight the manipulation, then the lease rate changes must certainly point to irregularities. The supply shortages which lead to astronomical lease rates around the time of Buffett's announcement seemed to get resolved rather quickly. It looks like they are starting to run the price up again and we will no doubt see the high rates re-emerge over the next few weeks, followed by another collapse as supply magically re-appears.

I have no loyalty to Armstrong, only admiration. His genius over the decades has been in understanding the driving forces behind the capital markets at least 1 - 2 years before anyone else. Is he always right ? Absolutely not. Is he often right ? Based on objective evidence such as investment returns - yes. Is he always logical and objective ? IMO, yes.

Cheers, sas

(Sat Feb 28 1998 22:03 - ID#288295)
Islamic Gold Dinar
Here is a source I've just located, which may be of use in the confirmation or denial of the existence of the Islamic Gold Dinar. I have not yet contacted Dr. Bates - do we have a volunteer who wishes to visit him at the American Numismatic Society ( Audobon Terrace, Broadway & 155th, NYC ) ?

(Sat Feb 28 1998 22:21 - ID#20748)
High Rise. Plants at O.S.U.
Service men and women in dress uniform and the fake telephone call from Manheim.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 22:28 - ID#283121)
Nick @ C

Nick - saw your post regarding Centaur Mining. This is a stock I have been interested in for some time. They could end up having the best ( most profitable ) Nickel mine in the world due to the high Cobalt/Nickel ratio, and the stock is very cheap. I have not purchased any because of the large amount of both debt and equity which has been issued by the company in order to fund the development of their Cawse Nickel mine. I chose to invest in another Gutnick company instead - Great Central. GCM also has rather high debt levels, but it is already generating huge cashflows and good profits and is ridiculously under-priced. The great thing about the current gold market is that you don't need to take any chances because all share prices have been slaughtered. This may astonish some N.A Kitcoites who have come to accept that gold mining companies will naturally report losses in the current market, but there are several Aust gold mining companies that are on track to report record profits this financial year.

Merril Lynch is my stock broker, but I learned a long time ago to ignore any of their analyses and recommendations. I only deal with them because I have a good relationship with one particular broker. ML's valuations tend to follow the market. They also tend to put out buy recommendations on companies for which they have been involved in debt or equity raisings.

Cheers, sas

(Sat Feb 28 1998 22:34 - ID#29082)
It appears that they have made serious "upgrades". Commodities now come from MSNBC and are dated 2/23. Microsoft is assimilating everything.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 22:51 - ID#252150)
Donald@Puetz--again linear thinking
fuc*ing hopeless.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 22:54 - ID#252150)
Highrise@ You have an inkling
and there are 16 inklings in a clue.

Quixotic 1
(Sat Feb 28 1998 22:57 - ID#48200)
Another; Those storm clouds might have a PM lining. Maybe not !
Again, ANOTHER seems to allude to loses in paper trades, while to maintain ownership of the physical metal is the only way to go. One such scenario that would effect this convolution is if say the US Fed decided to sell their physical holdings. This would create a vacuum for the paper plays to disappear into, at the same time offering safety to the holders of the physical metal. Safety is relative of course. Physical holders would endure a protracted drop in prices, until the rebound sometime later.
We know this possibility already exist. A document that was commissioned by the US Gov't to study the effects of US Gold sales on the markets and economies of the world, was released last year, ( I'm not at home to have access to the URL. I'll post it on Monday ) .
In any case, we live in interesting times, whether we like it or not. Another is willing to help us decipher the road signs, I suggest we all listen. This unforgiving road might be out ahead.

Gold for the good guysGMJ

ANOTHER, please email me directly for some humanitarian questions @

Thank you Sir.

Those storm clouds might have a PM lining !!

(Sat Feb 28 1998 23:04 - ID#252150)
Lurker@There is no doubt that their graphs look marvellous
but again, they are cursed with linear thinking. Puetz has the imagination of an accountant & has probably never had an original thought in his life.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 23:08 - ID#393224)
G'day all.
Auracious-- The IMF was born ( March 1st, 1947 ) exactly one month too early.

sas--Thanks for your comments about Centaur. I particularly like the chart action and the 9 cents/pound nickel costs after cobalt credits. Anyone know a cheaper nickel mine?? Uncle Joe's GCM is an excellent company. I'm sure Champion de Cresps ( Normandy ) is going to enjoy taking it over!!

Donald -- what country ( former country ) was your Dinar minted in?? I am trying to find it in my bible ( World Gold Coins ) .

Haggis-- thanks for reply to Rhody about PGMs and silver being found together at Munni Munni. Perhaps other geologists would like to comment. Mate, do you have a URL for Legend Mining--other than Hot Copper?? I would like the last quarterly report.

Rhody--thanks for your geological insights. Stick around and add your technical and sceptical advice--as it is welcome and sorely needed here.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 23:09 - ID#153102)
How did BIS arrive at $208 per oz ? From 1933 to 1971, the Congress constantly diminished the amount of gold for which the greenback could be redeemed ( reorganizations of the bankruptcy ) . I wonder if $208 per oz was the last official international price. ANOTHER is so certain about this $280 figure, but where does it come from ?

At $2000 per oz what would a barrel of oil cost ? Assuming an oil price of $15 per barrel = gold at $350 ? Oil, I think, would be about $133 a barrel. Not workable. On either side. Europeans and Asians would go back to bicycles. There is some other denouement for the drama.

Bill Buckler
(Sat Feb 28 1998 23:13 - ID#256381)
Linear Thinking?
James: Since I apparently suffer from the disease of "linear thinking", I would be interested in your definition of this malady. If linear thinking is counter-productive, I must assume that the cure is to practice non-linear thinking. A definition of that would be enlightening too.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 23:27 - ID#339212)
@ mozel

mozel, scroll down to the end of the URL and you will see that $280 is associated with BIS's telephone number. Seriously.

John Disney__A
(Sat Feb 28 1998 23:28 - ID#24135)
Durban deep... a negative
For Accord...
You want something negative. OKAY. Deeps cost
are still pretty high ... maybe 320 average. That
bothers me the most. I have some. But I pick up
the preferred shares whenever some appear on the
local market ( 15-20% yield ) . The GOOD thing
about Deeps is a big resource base and FEW shares.
But I prefer harmony as it has lower costs
.. 280/300 avg and maybe 3 times the resource
base for only maybe 20% more shares. I also
like Rangold for roughly similar reasons.
However, Deeps was the first of these to
show life on a technical basis and may be the
early mover. But they are ALL good

(Sat Feb 28 1998 23:37 - ID#284255)
The Premium Site for Bancruptcy Information

(Sat Feb 28 1998 23:48 - ID#284255)
" gold crisis "
FOCUS-S.Africa extends layoff halt, sets crisis plan

(Sat Feb 28 1998 23:48 - ID#31868)
forgive me, please, as I rush to understand, I kneel at the edge of the ocean

forever that wishes your comfort...


(Sat Feb 28 1998 23:49 - ID#255151)

Vernon Jordan granted partial immunity by Starr. Also--Bill Buckler--I think the opposite of linear thinking is circular reasoning!

(Sat Feb 28 1998 23:50 - ID#252150)
Bill Buckler@Things are never as they seem , with the plunge
protection team. Read Lewis Carrol.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 23:50 - ID#266105)

Dunno about the Heavens but April 8th is a big day
around this joint. Wife's birthday, her twin sister's
birthday, my ( our ) son's birthday and one of my older
brother's birthday.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 23:51 - ID#284255)
More pieces for gold's never-ending jigsaw puzzle

(Sat Feb 28 1998 23:52 - ID#255151)
Oh, yes

and Go Gold!

(Sat Feb 28 1998 23:59 - ID#252150)
Tolerant 1-- good to see you speaking again
in tongues& confusing almost everyone, except the select few.

(Sat Feb 28 1998 23:59 - ID#266105)

John Disney-- Harmony and Durban Deep trade on the Nasdaq
here. DD trades much heavier since I've observed, maybe five
to ten times more daily volume proportional to Harmony with,
you say 20% more shares outstanding. Curious??? In looking
to establish a single company SA position, it pretty much
came down to a dart between these two...DD the winner probably
for the dividend and a greater multiple gain vis-a-vis Harmony
when gold was at a higher price over the past 52 weeks.