Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 00:00 - ID#153102)
@myrmidon Dial 280: Like something out of Gold Finger.
By way of reference in 1974 Italy collaterized gold to borrow $2 billion from Germany. The collateral value was about $120 per oz.

The London Gold Pool ended in 1968 when it became obvious that defending the official price of gold of $35 per oz would drain all of the US gold.

Germany and Switzerland have been repeatedly compelled to support the greenback because otherwise the appreciation of their currencies made it impossible for them to export in competition with US firms. Of course, Japan is in the same predicament itself now.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 00:01 - ID#284255)
Headline: Market Monitor, Frank Cochrane Of Investment Timing Consultants
PAUL KANGAS: My guest Market Monitor this week is Frank Cochrane, the president of Investment Timing Consultants, an advisory based in Farmington Hills, Michigan. Welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Frank.
Paul. Thank you.
KANGAS: This market is unbelievable with its upward momentum. For the month of February, the Dow gained 639 points or 8.1 percent. Last Friday, third straight record high. NASDAQ, and practically all the other indexes hitting record highs almost on a daily basis. Are we really getting in an overextended and vulnerable position?
COCHRANE: I think we're in very thin air here. And the plurality of the market is somewhat narrow. For example the Dow Industrials in this most recent move, you've had basically 12 stocks accounting for a majority of the move which on a weighted basis accounts for about 60 percent, 67 percent of the Dow Industrials. So the plurality's not there. Secondly, the confidence numbers which are coming out with respect to the economy are strong, very strong, in fact the highest in 40 years in consumer confidence. I think that's going to make interest rates move higher therefore that will be a drag certainly on the stock market. Thirdly, Asia. That question is still out there, has been for the short term placed on the back burner. However that may negatively impact earnings. That's still a big question that looms.
KANGAS: But if earnings slowed downed so should the economy. And interest rates shouldn't go up, should they?
COCHRANE: That's true. But the thing is the economy is, is strong. That's the fact that remains.
KANGAS: And labor markets are tight.
COCHRANE: Very tight. I think you'll see a-
KANGAS: How big a move are you looking for in the long term, the 30-year bond interest rate to go?
COCHRANE: I would expect bond yields to move towards this, the end of this year towards the 7 percent level. So I'm looking for a very significant level, move up. And once we get above, significantly above the 6 percent level, we sort of toyed around with that today, that'll make people a little bit nervous on the March Bond Contract Futures down below 120. I'm looking for a significant move up in rates.
KANGAS: Last time you were with us, September 5 of last year, the Dow was at 7822. You were still bullish on the big blue chips of the Dow stocks, but much more so on the high tech issues particularly the
NASDAQ leaders. You recommended Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) at 68. It's now 85 considering the two for one split. Dell ( NASDAQ:DELL ) at 87. It's now 138. And Intel ( NASDAQ:INTC ) at 94. It's now about 91. Are you selling into the strength, the recent strength in these issues?
COCHRANE: Absolutely. And I think probably Intel tells you a big story. Intel at that point and time was in the 94, 95 range.
KANGAS: Right.
COCHRANE: Today we're at the high. It closed I think in the high 80s. That stock has not moved up although the NASDAQ 100, the NASDAQ Composite has moved up and made new highs. That
stock for example maybe a short sale candidate to pick up 10 or 20 percent or so-
KANGAS: You are getting negative, again.
COCHRANE: Oh, absolutely. In that situation you've had a few stocks moving the NASDAQ higher. A few moving the Dow higher. A few moving the S&P higher. Plurality is not good. Therefore at this particular point in time with the Dow at 8550 liquidity is paramount in my mind.
KANGAS: How much liquidity? What would be the amount that you would have in cash?
COCHRANE: Our current asset allocation is 70 percent cash reserve, T- bills, that type of thing.
KANGAS: Nothing out further than what, two or three years?
COCHRANE: Correct. And shorter in some, in some cases. That's, that's the bottom line is liquidity is paramount. I would have- buy some resource stocks, gold stocks, that type of thing-
KANGAS: Gold stocks? Again? Frank?
COCHRANE: Well the last time I think I meant silver, not gold.
KANGAS: Your name is Frank, not Warren.
COCHRANE: But one stock, one recommendation I would make would be Euro-Nevada ( EN.TO ) . That stock trades around $20 a share, Canadian. So you're buying it at $13, $14, U.S. It trades on the Toronto Exchange.
KANGAS: But you liked back then in September Newmont ( NYSE:NEM ) , Homestake ( NYSE:HM ) ,
Barrick ( NYSE:ABX ) . They're all down significantly. And you even liked Pegasus which went bankrupt.
COCHRANE: Well, you know, the way that our clients participate in gold, gold shares is through mutual funds. That's the definite way I'd recommend doing it.
KANGAS: The advantage of diversification?
COCHRANE: Absolutely.
KANGAS: Right.
COCHRANE: And in that situation, certainly that's the way I would play that market. However, if people want individual stocks, certainly there are those out there to purchase.
KANGAS: So you're not giving up on gold. You think it still has a chance to make a strong rebound?
COCHRANE: Yes I do. The inflation numbers should slowly start up ticking with the economic strength. Asia, we'll see what happens there with respect to earnings. But I think the big story here is how strong are the economies. Look at the GDP numbers today, the strongest in 9 years. That's really telling a story.
KANGAS: All right. A very negative Frank Cochrane. I haven't seen you like this in quite some time. But we appreciate your view. And thanks for sharing it.
COCHRANE: Thank you, Paul.
KANGAS: My guest Market Monitor, Frank Cochrane, president of Investment Timing Consultants.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 00:04 - ID#256254)
(An old repost just to ask does anyone have an update on Aden sisters?)
( What are they saying on the market now? She seems to be on target for the pm's. As I remember she was looking for the gold breakout in the March to May timeframe. )

Date: Tue Dec 02 1997 10:10
A.Goose ( I know SDRer likes Aden so ... ) ID#256254:
Mary ann Aden spoke at the gold show.

She sees the Dow at a major top, the dollar heading lower, gold turning. She present lots of excellant charts and indicators to back up her assertions. I buy her story.

Under the 7500 level and holding would confirm the bear market. Once it does this , its next stop will be 5500 or lower.

Gold must hold support at 285. It needs to get above $320, but to become bullish it must get above $345. The current down trend could end any day or continue for months.

Silver needs to stay above 4.83 and she sees it going to $7.00 and above. She is bullish on silver.

for gold shares the barron's gold index needs to get above 615 to be bullish.

The Us dollar has turned down ( Aug 6th top ) . It could go to 110 swiss francs.

Swiss franc is her choice in currencies then Dmark, the French Franc. Bearish on Canadian dollar.

She sees long term rates heading down and short term rates heading up. She is bullish on bonds for the next several months. Longer term I don't think she is bullish. The bond needs to hold the 6.37 level.

REMEMBER I AM JUST TRYING TO BE THE REPORTER. This information is meant to help, check on your own before you make any key decions - the reporter could have made a mistake etc.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 00:05 - ID#339212)
@ mozel - a chronological order of gold

mozel, you may want to bookmark the following URL, it gives some good history:

(Sun Mar 01 1998 00:06 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Charts
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors

FSAGX Up 7% in past 4 days

(Sun Mar 01 1998 00:09 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
You sound like an angry cop

China Needs Money for 3-Year Investment Plan Worth About $1 Trillion
Smart money's betting the farm on El Nino
- Good read -
Avid chatter -
that 6:18 post was from Kitco. thats a comic book page isnt it?? all i know is everyone there thinks gold is going up. LOLROF, whatta good joke that is.

I offer up this rather small piece of information which may or maynot be of interest - then I'm off to slumber. From the Feb 1996 high of 155.60 to the most recent low 61.23 in Jan 98 ( XAU ) the correction covers 61%. Londo gold has turned up and y'all know I'm a silver/gold bull. That said, bye bye.

In the ideal business cycle, it's time to buy gold when producer prices have bottomed, and it's time to sell stocks when long term interest rates have bottomed...during the time between these two events, gold and stocks can both go up...from strategic market timing by robert bowker

so IF gold in fact has bottomed; then the stock market top is around the corner

Gold/Yen/Dollar are somehow connected?? Watch the Yen, if it gets stronger so will Gold..

Lurker 777
(Sun Mar 01 1998 00:15 - ID#317247)
ANOTHER it's time!
Date: Sat Feb 28 1998 16:33
I have tried to offer these thoughts as a way for many to understand why this modern gold market is not as before. I will now offer real direction. That of Why, When and How Much! Some say this knowledge should not be in a public way, but I say secrets are for fools.
For the time in the future, directly ahead, all will receive thoughts of Now and Tomorrow! For those of simple thought, such as I, the knowledge of the past, when brought forward into the future, will be, worth your time and consideration!
I will be gone for a time,
Thank You

(Sun Mar 01 1998 00:18 - ID#339212)

I sometimes refer to this URL, some may find it useful:

(Sun Mar 01 1998 00:24 - ID#266105)
@The Captain/Privateer/Buckler

There were some Sufic parables roaming campuses in hip pockets
back when the music mattered ( wow, man, I see colors coming out of
the speakers ) , the ones I remember were translated by an Idries
Shaw, little stories said to be 'exercises in non-linear thinking'.
If I recall correctly, a little situation with sort of an unexpected
O'Henry type twist on the end.

The whole Sufic sect and whirling subsect, as I understand it,
stems from the pennings of 13th Century ecstatic Persian poet Rumi,
of which there's a copy on the shelf here for occasional word salad
maunderings. I swear, at least in the translation I've got ( Coleman
Barks ) there's more than strong intimations of that of Darwin in
certain lines of verse, four centuries prior!

(Sun Mar 01 1998 00:28 - ID#153102)
@myrmidon Thanks. Lots of gold facts to ponder there.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 00:31 - ID#339212)

The following is from the RYO msg board which I frequent a lot. An early message says:

"This morning I left some RYO stock certificates on the dash of my car hoping that somebody will get in the car and steal them. To my surprise when I returned I found some more RYO stock certificates on the dash which another RYO investor had placed next to mine!!"

(Sun Mar 01 1998 00:42 - ID#433286)
What due you make of this?
Picked up a few Maples today and while talking to friendly local coin dealer he said last few shipments of Maples and Eagles had not been very prompt. He also mentioned that until last shipment the prior 3 or 4 had all been 1998 dated Eagles. He felt brookers had needed to wait for minting. Have seen other post mentioning 1998 dates. As others visit local shops would the dates of bullion coins available give us some clue as to demand and source of gold avaiable?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 00:46 - ID#433286)
Due intentional avaible --not
See above

(Sun Mar 01 1998 00:46 - ID#31868)
I am above wealth, no longer is mine which that desires anything less than the comfort of all children

motive is another word for selfish, hmmmmmmm

CHECKMATE, ilove the park..hmmmmmmmmmmmm

C'mon I will purchase the chesnuts

Let us walk..............................

ted butler__A
(Sun Mar 01 1998 00:48 - ID#317184)
sas - thanks for the response, but I know what I read. Armstrong's mistake may have been a typo, but the point he was trying to make was that the expense of carrying silver, would seriously effect Mr. Buffett's results. That implies Mr. Buffett didn't factor that in before hand, which is preposterous.

As far as PEI/Armstrong's position, there is no way for me to know ( or care ) , so I accept you at your word ( if in fact, you would be able to know his entire position ) .

But his writing about silver would lead one to think he was short, because what other motive could he have?

His response to my assertion of silver having the largest short position of any commodity in history was classic Armstrong double-talk. Your question was much more to the point, that is, "who holds the respective positions and why". A record long position would indicate to me that a lot of people thought it was cheap and that it would go up in price. That's the reason why anybody invests in anything from the long si

(Sun Mar 01 1998 00:50 - ID#255284)
No, not GBS //Eggs// Omelettes // Chickens//

That's Idries Shah,
and from a copy ex auratomontani libris a real short segacity entitled


His Imperial Majesty the Shahinshah arrived unexpectedly at the teahouse where Mulla Nasrudin had been left in charge.

The Emperor called for an omelette.
"We shall now continue with the hunt," he told the Mulla. "So tell me what I owe you."
"For you and your five companions, Sire, the omelettes will be a thousand gold pieces."
The Emperor raised his eyebrows.
"Eggs must be very costly here. Are they as scarce as that?"
"It is not the eggs that are scarce her, Majesty--- it is the visits of kings."


Jeil Your:---
Date: Sat Feb 28 1998 12:3 Jeil ( "Step into my parlor," said the bear to the bull. ) ID#253228:
My work shows gold shares losing 80% of their value after this little bear trap that may last into next week

Care to expand on the nature of your work? I ask in the joyful anticipation that chicken entrails have nothing to do with it..

One chicken = 1 Dirham

(Sun Mar 01 1998 01:02 - ID#335190)
Haggis_A @ 21:50.........1929 USofA Depression Hon. Congressman Louis T. McFadden
Great Url......Mushrooms-R-Us... and... Be Quiet...Consume....And Die.

The Url you posted gives a clear sight into the past, and is very reflective of our present economic mess. Yes, supports the above adages.
Considerable amount of information. I have taken the liberty to select a few items. Proof I read the material eh! : ) : ) : )

**Hon. Congressman Louis T. McFadden;
**Motives, Evidence, and Arguments:
**A Proof The Federal Reserve Caused The Great Depression
---Mike Montagne on Louis T. McFadden and Congressional Record of June 10, 1932 -- pages 12595-12603

---An objective assessment of the inherently adverse purposes of the privately owned 'Federal Reserve System'

Yet as Mr. McFadden concludes, against the Federal Reserve, economic rectitude is improbable until the people assert their dominion over an economy which does serve them. This itself would require a formula for proper economy; a formula for converting the present system into said economy -- and substantial public understanding of same.

..........These of course, are the very purposes of these pages.

Mr. Chairman, when you hold a $10 Federal Reserve Note in your hand, you are holding a piece of paper which sooner or later is going to cost the United States Government $10 in gold -- unless the government is obliged to give up the gold standard.

.....It is protected by a reserve of 40 percent, or $4 in gold.

It is based on Limburger cheese reputed to be in a foreign warehouse; or on cans purporting to contain peas -- but which may contain no peas but salt water instead; or on horse meat;....... illicit drugs; bootleggers' fancies;...... rags and bones from Soviet Russia -- of which the United States imported over a million dollars worth last year; on wine, whisky, natural gas, on goat or dog fur, garlic on the string, or Bombay ducks.

IF you like to have money which is secured by such commodities, you have it in the Federal Reserve Note.

Retention of the **gold standard of course, precludes adjusting total circulation as would sustain prosperity differing from the quantity of monetary **gold existent; And, as Mr. McFadden's speech itself attests, in any case it is impossible now to retain the **gold standard -- as the inflation which resulted of the very policies he outlines has rendered a circulation far above what is possible to redeem by a consistent **'standard' in the existent quantity of monetary **gold.

NOT A DOLLAR can be put into circulation among the people, by their government, without the consent of, AND ON TERMS FIXED BY, these 12 private money trusts.

ALL THIS is done at the expense of the United States Government, and at a sickening loss to the American people. Only our great wealth enabled us to stand the drain of it as long as we did.

While this crime was being perpetrated, everything the world could rake up to sell us was brought here at our own expense by the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Banks, until our markets were swamped with unneeded and unwanted imported goods priced far above their value -- and thus made to equal the dollar volume of our honest exports -- and [thus] to kill our favorable balance of trade.

As agents of the foreign central banks, the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Banks try by every means within their power to reduce our favorable balance of trade. They act for their foreign principals and they accept fees from foreigners for acting against the best interests of the United States. Naturally, there has been great competition among foreigners for the favors of the Federal Reserve Board.

What we need to do is to send the reserves of our national banks home to the people who earned and produced them -- and who still own them -- and to the banks which were compelled to surrender them to the predatory interests. We need to destroy the Federal Reserve pool -- wherein our National Bank reserves are impounded for the benefit of foreigners. We need to make it very difficult for outlanders to draw money away from us.
..................We need to save America for Americans.
 Copyright 1997 by Mike Montagne
Commercial rights reserved.

ted butler__A
(Sun Mar 01 1998 01:08 - ID#317184)
sas 2nd attempt

sas - thanks for the response, but I know what I read. Armstrong's mistake may have been a typo, but the point he was trying to make was that the expense of carrying silver, would seriously effect Mr. Buffett's results. That implies Mr. Buffett didn't factor that in before hand, which is preposterous.

As far as PEI/Armstrong's position, there is no way for me to know ( or care ) , so I accept you at your word ( if in fact, you would be able to know his entire position ) .

But his writing about silver would lead one to think he was short, because what other motive could he have?

His response to my assertion of silver having the largest short position of any commodity in history was classic Armstrong double-talk. Your question was much more to the point, that is, "who holds the respective positions and why". A record long position would indicate to me that a lot of people thought it was cheap and that it would go up in price. That's the reason why anybody invests in anything from the long

ted butler__A
(Sun Mar 01 1998 01:11 - ID#317184)
computer nitwit

My last few posts don't go thru complete. Ant ideas why?

Lan Man
(Sun Mar 01 1998 01:24 - ID#320108)
@In the Footsteps of...
In reading a certain book, came across the following quote by Fredrick Lips, a former director with Rothchilds in Zurich:

"We may not be too far away from an expected emergency situation. Even before the debt-laden 20th century reaches its end, you will all experience a gold market where people are no longer concerned about supply and demand, but on the contrary, will want to own gold at any price Gold today is going over from weak hands into strong ones, mainly into the hands of the richest and the most liquid investors in the world, the central banks of the Far East. This is not any secret, but for the moment, the enormous meaning of it is being completely ignored. Sooner or later we will experience fireworks in the gold market, which hardly anyone would dare believe today Forget the reports about climbing gold production. It is nothing compared to climbing paper money production."

I am uncertain as to when F. Lipps made this statement, but it does have a certain familiarity to it.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 01:27 - ID#398105)
6pak.........what you have got to remember is..............

.....that since 1971/73, when Nixon decoupled the US dollar from GOLD, YOU the Americans not only let you debt cumulate through the roof, but you also "lost" your GOLD as you could no longer claim GOLD for your dollar. Your GOLD was effectively confiscated from you ?

The FED calls the shots, not your Government who are selected not elected.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 01:27 - ID#401460)
This has been posted before - must be happening in every parking lot around the world.

I am holding on to my shares, and if I see your pile of stock I will be happy to pick it up.

I still figure Gates and the Boys have a few shares of RYO.


(Sun Mar 01 1998 02:02 - ID#31868)
Justice knows no patients, none...........................

(Sun Mar 01 1998 02:14 - ID#31868)
Haggis 6PAK
Spit it all out, children, draw, keen, shoot. Done. Bitter only has roots in those who know know better.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 02:26 - ID#349272)
re: sharefin's post NBR:Kangas-vested interest puppet...
Easy to see from this interview what we have known all along. This talking head is very subtle in his dissing of gold and gold interests. The guy is so transparent its easy to see his strings going all the way back to Wall Street and the big brokerage houses. An F- in reporting.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 02:34 - ID#31876)
How To Understand "Deflation"....(Donald May Have Already Posted)

(Sun Mar 01 1998 03:02 - ID#33869)
@Haggis re ECM/LEG
You have probably made subsequent comments about ECM/LEG several weeks ago that I have missed. Do you have any current comments on the progress of their examination of the mined ore?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 03:06 - ID#31868)
for those of you that need measure.

Make no mistake, I AM THE PRINCE of Manhattan, truth, in my world, old ladies smile...I do truly remember the way your feet touch the pavement

My ears comprehend what frogs forgot before they touched what was before unknown to them.,

THIS IS MY CITY, my home, the monk is forever happy, his rest is my justice.

Mr. MickI thank you, I shall not quote Tom J

But I thank you.

My last thought is forever happy to you and yours..

(Sun Mar 01 1998 03:09 - ID#255284)
I speak of mice and men......

To: ted Butler/ sas/ Millhouse, and other Gentlemen and Gentlewomen

& also to the "Princes" of Princeton..

ted is correct, I saw the edition he refered to, I think the lesson we can all draw from this is that there are many eyes on kitco. Obviously the edition was hastily edited. Many of eyes are making money from what they glean from here by selling it as original work. Their fall will be as unlamented as it is predictable. In that respect, and in many others, I can understand ANOTHER's reluctance to feed the greedy heartless cannibals...

Think also of obligation when you think of freedom

(Sun Mar 01 1998 03:18 - ID#31876)
A Kitco Re-run On Deflation...

(Sun Mar 01 1998 03:25 - ID#255284)
Leland plse repost yr last URL, or advise date & time, tnx

(Sun Mar 01 1998 03:27 - ID#398105)
CJnOZ (@Haggis re ECM/LEG)

I consider that ECM and LEG are making the evaluation a "wee" bit difficult for themselves.

By taking a bulk sample at this stage, the grade will be verified. However, to truely gain value on the share price they must derive a definitive resource/reserve, which will require a substantial upgrade in tonnes.

Bulk sampling as opposed to mining is being undertaken at this stage.

The Munni Munni Fault is a major regional structure, and has a 600 metre sinistral displacement along the eastern side of the layered mafic/ultramafic Munni Munni complex. The fault forms a major escarpment through the complex, and is part of a regional fault that can be traced along the western margin of the Maitland complex to the north and past the Zebra Hill dyke to the south. The strike extent is in excess of 25 kilometres, and is largely untested for polymetallic mineralisation.

ECM and LEG could be more efficient in their exploration. One must remember that the project at this time is not even at the "prefeasibility mine evaluation stage", never mind a "full feasibility bankable document stage".

Early days, and I for one can see a take over on the horizon.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 03:33 - ID#31876)
Aurator, Sorry. Let's Try This Again....

(Sun Mar 01 1998 03:36 - ID#33869)
Thanks Haggis
THanks for your information. Looked at yesterday posts and saw that you had made comments there. Should have researched before I asked for more info.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 03:36 - ID#31876)
Contemporary Hot Story..

(Sun Mar 01 1998 03:38 - ID#255284)
Darn it! still got "object not found" ( As Clinton is saying about Lewinsky's Lippy wanderings ) got a time and date?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 03:41 - ID#398105)
BETTER THAN A GOLD MINE.................

Precious Metals Australia NL and Glencore AG Joint Venture
Windimurra Layered Mafic/Ultramafic Complex, Western Australia
Vanadium Project

Since I last posted on this one back in Nov/dec 1997, the share price has gone from AU$0.34 to AU$ 0.58. It is likely a AU$2.50 share.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 03:41 - ID#31876)
Aurator, It Seems The Kitco Re-run Somehow Is Rejected By Kitco

(Sun Mar 01 1998 03:46 - ID#255284)
with a date and time or a string of words from the post I can get that post from my own, ahhhemmmm memory...

(Sun Mar 01 1998 03:47 - ID#398105)
Sorry about this Lads, but this really is impressive.......GOING UP !!


02/26/1998 $5,525,003,799,622.62

Month Amount

02/25/1998 $5,524,032,303,574.34
02/24/1998 $5,522,503,241,725.24
02/23/1998 $5,519,492,792,898.57
02/20/1998 $5,518,340,599,802.18
02/19/1998 $5,515,606,648,101.35
02/18/1998 $5,516,263,758,020.16
02/17/1998 $5,510,166,063,080.80
02/13/1998 $5,474,687,599,259.03
02/12/1998 $5,474,464,732,467.36
02/11/1998 $5,473,648,289,477.06
02/10/1998 $5,471,889,906,215.21
02/09/1998 $5,468,966,737,716.36
02/06/1998 $5,472,049,936,751.15
02/05/1998 $5,474,663,018,859.28
02/04/1998 $5,475,809,861,023.23
02/03/1998 $5,474,822,352,150.77
02/02/1998 $5,483,592,532,096.82


01/30/1998 $5,490,064,235,079.64
12/31/1997 $5,502,388,012,375.95
11/28/1997 $5,462,621,557,837.57
10/31/1997 $5,427,225,185,059.66
09/30/1997 $5,413,146,011,397.34
08/29/1997 $5,404,420,294,885.51
07/31/1997 $5,373,228,560,474.27
06/30/1997 $5,376,151,252,876.02
05/30/1997 $5,344,961,362,266.83
04/30/1997 $5,353,971,314,439.39
03/31/1997 $5,380,889,857,391.59
02/28/1997 $5,349,937,360,942.68


09/30/1997 $5,413,146,011,397.34
09/30/1996 $5,224,810,939,135.73
09/29/1995 $4,973,982,900,709.39
09/30/1994 $4,692,749,910,013.32
09/30/1993 $4,411,488,883,139.38
09/30/1992 $4,064,620,655,521.66
09/30/1991 $3,665,303,351,697.03
09/28/1990 $3,233,313,451,777.25
09/29/1989 $2,857,430,960,187.32
09/30/1988 $2,602,337,712,041.16
09/30/1987 $2,350,276,890,953.00

Source: Bureau of the Public Debt

(Sun Mar 01 1998 03:52 - ID#31876)
Aurator, Date Was 12-24-97, Time Was 07:28..Main Msg. Was..

(Sun Mar 01 1998 03:54 - ID#255284)
every digit important
Bit like watching paint dry I thought, Haggman.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 03:56 - ID#255284)
got it! thanks!
I can find the original kitco post in 2 secs with those details.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 03:59 - ID#228283)
@Haggis_A and all...

If the Y2K thing is really a problem..wouldn't it also be a boon to all countries by wiping out all debt...ergo, starting afresh?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 04:04 - ID#255284)
in the beginning was the word, and the word was...Happy Birthday I EM EFFFF.........
Now, there's a thought. Declare the Millenium a Jubilee. Burn all paper debt. It's been done before, you know, impoverish a class or a guild, a family or a city or a country at the stroke of a pen...

Year 0

(Sun Mar 01 1998 04:16 - ID#228283)
Lesson #1... Get yourself as far into DEBT as possible...

into cash,of course,mortgage the farm to the MAX, buy physical PMs, and watch the world go by. If nothing still have the GOLD!

(Sun Mar 01 1998 04:19 - ID#228283)
@ aurator ...HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!!

did I sound like a Central Bank in my last post? Sorry...GO GOLD!

(Sun Mar 01 1998 04:24 - ID#255284)
I only have eyes for ewe.....

also from that great URL:--

Jack Kemp, guest lecturer: "Why America Must Lead"

Does anyone doubt that the Asian currency crisis that has hit the Pacific rim so hard was at least encouraged by Michel Camdessus and his associates at the IMF?
This is why I said on CNN a few days ago that if it were up to me, I would not give one dime, one nickel, one cent to the IMF -- which is asking our taxpayers for $18 billion -- until it changes its policies and top personnel. Clearly, we have to figure out a way to improve the performance of the IMF, totally reform it, or abolish it altogether-- because the people of the world do see it as our agent. The world does not need a lender of last resort for banks and corporations to save them from currency meltdowns like we have seen in Asia.
What the world needs is a stable monetary regime that would prevent currency meltdowns in the first place. The greatest threat to worldwide economic stability today is the international monetary arrangement of floating currencies in which no currency is linked to a stable anchor and all countries are being encouraged to used currency devaluation as an economic policy instrument during times of economic duress.

Wanniski has some wonderful lectures:
recommend the Gold Polaris series


(Sun Mar 01 1998 04:34 - ID#255284)
You need never apologise to me, amigo for expressing your fertile imagination. There is an element of sweet reason and damn fine muse-ing in your post that should cause every thinking person to sit up and take notice.

After all, a jubilee was expected each 50 years. To wipe the slate free of all past debts and obligations, to begin once more afresh, with a tabula rasa.

Perhaps declaring a Jubilee would be the sensible, logical and cheap way of dealing with y2k. It is the CB equivalent of sticking one's fingers in one's ears hoping that the cannon explosion 5 feet away will just fffade away...

(Sun Mar 01 1998 04:36 - ID#255151)

Too many unknowns about Y2K for me. My plan, FWIW is to be out of debt, hold physical Gold, Silver and cash, store about a months worth of basics, and LAY LOW! Y2K is like a monkey wrench being thrown into an exceedingly complex system. And no one really can predict what will happen.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 04:45 - ID#266105)

Lemme state hearly & suck sinkly ( U2 oh rater ) that
millenial madness IF kipling keep urs head but this
y2k thing after looking about got me a bit shivered
me timbres. Good blooz I mite ad. Popfizz.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 05:03 - ID#31876)
Index For Some Sunday Morning Newspapers~~

(Sun Mar 01 1998 05:11 - ID#255284)
ewe light up my life...with SONG....
Gott turn in, looking forward to reading y'alls Birthday Greeting cards & Songs to the IMF, born 1 March 1947 ugly little blighter it's become.

Remind me to go partying with you one day bro..


(Sun Mar 01 1998 05:16 - ID#432148)
Happy Labour Day and Eight Hour Day tomorrow
to some of our friends in down under from us up overs ;- )

(Sun Mar 01 1998 05:17 - ID#266105)

haggis-- cirquinly inglaciating but let's keep it
plutonic. Despite feeling saturnalian.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 05:39 - ID#248180)
@ USA- Debt & How Some Things Just Don't Add-UP or Compute????
Bloomberg Reports that a new USA record of 1.4 million individuals and business were bankrupt in 1997. Debts of $44 Billion were chalked up and written off. Does not sound like sound economic policies in action to me. Or am I once again missing something? Oh well, just print more money.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 05:45 - ID#266105)

..................bigger your ego the higher the score.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 06:17 - ID#26793)
Minted in Ghazna. This is the capital city of the kingdom which included parts of what is now Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. I see it is also spelled "G'hazna" and the kingdom is called G'haznavid.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 06:20 - ID#284255)
The glory of gold
Listen glad heart
To the lilt and fall of his song
Song crafted thru the days of a million years.
A million glad springs, and the long
Hot days of a million summers
Have tempered -- fine tuned the rough song
Shaped sweet the melodious bars of
The alert and mischievous Magpies
Warbled song

The song so artfully crafted -- the delight
Garnered of practical day to day living
Bird praise for daily bread -- for peace at night
The dawn hymn of melodious giving

Listen my soul, in the grey dawn waking
Lift spirit at the wild melodious song
Let heart sing, with the black and white bird
In the quiet dawn
The fluted magic of his concert
Musical song

(Sun Mar 01 1998 06:31 - ID#238295)
Fed Gold Study
Quixotic: That study by a few lower environmentally-oriented level Fed economist advocating that all CBs sell their gold was one of the worst studies the Fed has ever done. Gold was around $335 when the report was released, and the authors estimated that bullion would fall to just $309 if all CBs sold all their gold. How dumb can you get! Gold has since traded below $280 even though CBs still own most of their gold. I don't think any knowledgeable person takes this study seriously.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 06:37 - ID#351224)
Lan Man - Fred Lips
Can you tell us what book you're reading? And in what context and to whom is Fred Lips saying these things? Many thanks

(Sun Mar 01 1998 06:43 - ID#238295)
The War Crowd
Republicans now leading the war charge on Capital Hill. This party is not dominated by Israel-firsters as are the Democrats, but is heavily influenced by the military-industrial complex and jingoists of all types who like to see America pushing around weaker nations. So the pro-war crowd extends far beyond Clinton's Israel firsters. The tremendous "arrogance of power" prevalent in the US today will inevitable force other nations to take financial, economic, and military steps so as to form a more effective counter to the US in various regions of the globe

US probably will remain the only superpower for another 20 years or so -- until China comes on steam. But its global influence is already peaking -- very bullish for gold longer-term.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 06:45 - ID#26793)
Zhu orders Chinese banks to reduce bad debt by 3% per year

(Sun Mar 01 1998 06:50 - ID#26793)
Suharto says IMF help will not be enough to save Indonesia

(Sun Mar 01 1998 06:53 - ID#26793)
Malaysia says no chicken for dinar

(Sun Mar 01 1998 06:56 - ID#393224)
Donald's Dinar at breakfast time
G'day Donald. Is the date for your Dinar 1059-1098 Hegira ( A.H. -- Anno Hegirae ) or Christian years? For example 1099 A.H. = 1687 AD.

The coins of that area reflect Persian, Turkish and Indian influences. Inscriptions are usually in Dari or Pushtu. Names of the rulers are shown in Perso-Arabic script. Hammered coins were usually named after their mint. The closest I can find for your coin is the Dera mint located at Dera Ghazi Khan, taken by the Sikhs in AH1235 ( 1819AD ) , but is now part of Pakistan. I am intrigued and will continue the hunt--so any additional info would be appreciated. Cheers, Sherlock

(Sun Mar 01 1998 06:57 - ID#283121)
Ted Butler - The Silver Squeeze

Ted - I agree with you that the idea of Buffett not factoring in the costs of storage is preposterous. Buffett's down to earth style hides a razor sharp intellect which misses absolutely nothing. However, suggesting that Martin Armstrong would deliberately report inaccurate storage costs is equally preposterous. Let's put it down to poor proof reading.

I have read your essays at golden eagle relating to leasing of gold and silver. I assume you have published this work because you believe it to be correct and that you have, perhaps, taken positions in gold and silver based on your beliefs. I do not think you would take a long position in silver and then publish your theories simply to "talk up" the value of your investment. Why is it so difficult to believe that Armstrong is behaving in a similar, ethical manner ?

There is no doubt that silver at 6.00, 7.00 or even 8.00 is very cheap relative to the US dollar, and when the bull market in commodities gets underway it will move much higher. The point is that the draw-downs of "reported" inventories and the dramatic swings in prices and lease rates during the past 8 months show that this market is being manipulated both up and down by some very big money players. Why is this so difficult to believe ?

As someone who has no direct position in silver, either long or short, I don't care what happens to silver except to the extent that it affects the gold market ( I am very long gold ) . I suspect that we are going to see more fireworks in silver over the next 3 months, first up then down, before this game ends. I look forward to the show.

Cheers, sas

(Sun Mar 01 1998 07:00 - ID#26793)
Future European Central Bank should emulate the U.S. Fed

(Sun Mar 01 1998 07:10 - ID#26793)
The date is Christian years. The coin was called a Qami'i and the translation as follows from each side.

Justice. There is no diety but God. He is one, he has no partner. al-Muqtadi billah King of Islam.

Muhammad is the messenger of God, the supreme sultan.
Conqueror of Kings
Sayyid of Sultans

(Sun Mar 01 1998 07:23 - ID#26793)
After re-reading my answer on the date I may be confusing you. It was struck between 1059AD and 1098AD. Is that not something like 450AH? It can only be dated as minted during the reign of Sultan Ibrahim, not to an exact year.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 07:25 - ID#153102)
If memory serves, Ibrahim was perhaps the most extrordinary of sultans. Subject, as I recall, of an outstanding Nat G article a couple of years back.
Thanks for all your great posts and links.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Mar 01 1998 07:34 - ID#347447)
ol' paint - Jumping Jupiter
OL' PAINT: re your 20:59 last nite, a very cogent comment you made about Jupiter moving swiftly thru a sextile with NYSE Venus as gold pops. Just a passing fancy, and in time the bear returns? Perhaps, but I vote NO based on the passover, finally, of that ugly year-long Uranus affliction to NYSE Venus. Astrologically, this obvious aspect is the technical reflection of all the gold woes we have seen for the past year and some months. Note I did not say "cause", but REFLECTION. That is the marvel of astrology, inasmuch as the "realities" and "fundamental things" which apply here on earth cast their reflections well into the future. All you need is an ephemeris. A computer helps too, but the ancients did ok in "longhand."

I think the worst is done with gold. What the character of the borning bull in gold will be remains to be seen, but I anticipate higher prices in '98.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 07:38 - ID#393224)
Donald's Dinar
Unfortunately, my coin books don't go back that far. 622AD is the start of the Hegira calendar--when Mohammed fled Mecca for Medina. The four digit Hegira year was sometimes shown on the obverse for later coins. Will keep looking.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Mar 01 1998 07:44 - ID#347447)
SDRer April, May
I don't believe in coincidences, but I do believe in Co-incidences. ( ;- ) We are both knee deep here. Yes, I cannot exempt the middle east, Opec, et al, from what is apparently coming in april/May/June. But I'll be damned if I can put my finger on it. To be more specific I would have to research the dates you listed against various horoscopes in the middle east, etc. I wish I had the time. I am NOT one of those astrologers ( charlatans! ( ;- ) ) who can draw portents out of simply what is going on in the "heavens." I need to match the astro action against specific horoscopes to get a feel for what's coming up. I suppose I am a "linear" astrologer. Maybe someday I'll get more creative, or even Psychic. Rainy days and eclipses get me down.
BTW, I get strong readings from Central and South America around April/May as well ( ???? ) especially Central. But definitely April & May will tell the tale. Alas, we see thru a glass darkly ( my brokers, Glass,Darkly Inc ) .

(Sun Mar 01 1998 07:45 - ID#266105)
@shall he sell she shells by the sea floor

Sumpin' like Chaplin's 2nd wife sez
his gift was for comity, he had no sense of humor.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 08:04 - ID#266105)

I suspect gold will rise or fall by the distance of a

a ten foot pole.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 08:13 - ID#266105)

5 foot pole?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 08:20 - ID#57232)
Republican Presidential Candidates attack Clinton, others
All: President Clinton's own party members are turning against him -- and in other news, Starr gives Vernon Jordan limited immunity. This process is going to evolve much faster now, faster than the evolution of Watergate, which ( as I recall ) took about two years from the revelations to Nixon stepping down. In this case, I doubt BC will step down -- so it will be interesting to see what transpires.
Lets hope this crisis is used as an opportunity to cleanse corruption from all branches of the US government. I guess I have lived too long to believe this, but it is possible. On the other hand, there are many countries in the world where what is now happening would not be possible. I think we should be thankful for the information revolution to bring honesty and independence back to the newsmedia, and we should be thankful for the freedoms that we still have -- that only a few countries in the world have.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 08:28 - ID#288295)
Islamic Gold Dinar
For those who missed this - a possible source for confirmation of existence or denial of the Islamic Gold Dinar:

(Sun Mar 01 1998 08:30 - ID#153102)
Thanks for posting the Wanninski ( sp ) link.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 08:38 - ID#153102)
How can corruption be cleansed when the corruption of the greenback is the very blood of this government ? How can corruption be cleansed when the judges are under the thumb of the IRS ?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 08:50 - ID#57232)
Re: European Central Bank to emulate US Fed approach
Donald,All: Donald -- your post is highly informative. If the EURO, soon to go on line, is to compete with the US dollar, it will need gold 'support'. The question remains whether the gold will reside in Germany and France or whether it will reside in the new European Central bank.

I realize that the current message is that Germany and France will keep their gold in their respective countries. But if they do, who will believe that the EURO can compete with the US dollar? My guess is that there will be demand for gold to set up the EURO. Perhaps it is time for the 'powers that be' to sell dollars, and buy gold. True gold backing will come later, after the SEAsians force the issue.

Just a thought!

Here's another interesting thought! Why is our Federal debt going up, despite the fact that our budget is balanced? And -- why are we so adamant about Japan inflating their currency? My guess is that our debt is going up because we are buying the dollars that Japan is selling! What will happen when the Europeans do the same?

We need to watch our national debt.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 08:55 - ID#287277)
The Potemkin Dollar (the greenback)

Mozel@Wondering.about.280 The average** gold/ECU for the time-span 1992 to 1998 is 296.9547. It would have been WONDERFULLY close to 280 ECU had it not been for the troubles of 1994! This may well be what the $280 Gold Analyst was/is looking at... Average $ cost between 92-98 was $356.6819. It would appear, at this moment, that the European plan was to bring gold to around the $250-$300 range, making a Euro gold peg more convenient for welfare strapped states. But the paper has grown too much! And the gold has a larger following than expected!
Thur 2/26, in ECU, 1 oz = 269.251
Fri 2/27, in ECU, 1 oz = 273.149
Sat 2/28, in EcU, 1 oz = 274.424
so they have back in their target range, perhaps

**Selected one week in Feb ( same date span ) from 1992-1998; no standard deviation, no smoothing, no folding, just raw data. Because I prefer looking at the raw data ( because few do! )

Aurator@magic.fingers.tapping.the.keyboard One can convert any currency, and/or three commodities that some think of as money, into any other currency and GOLD. THERE IS ONLY ONE WHICH THEY WILL NOT ALLOW US TO LOOK AT IN GOLD! The XDR. Is that not interesting....and, of course, I wish to look at that which they wish to obscure.
Thus far, my work indicates XDR is where the gold is ( as far as currencies are concerned ) ...ponder THAT ( and all those IDs being converted...and that borrowing arrangement the IMF has with Saudi Arabia...

A.Goose.Who.Questioned.Well Check this out for a starter...USD is STRONG! Yen is WEAK! USD is STRONG! YEN is WEAK!
1992, Feb 26 1 USD = 129.730 JPY....
1998, Feb 26 1USD = 127.980 JPY

We can not afford to blithely accept what we are told...

(Sun Mar 01 1998 09:02 - ID#26793)
@Nick-C: Islamic Chronology; scroll down to 998AD for Ghazna

(Sun Mar 01 1998 09:04 - ID#34849)
I just wanted to pass along information I received last week about an interesting teleconference that will take place March 12 with Bob Bishop, Jim Blanchard, Doug Casey, Adrian Day, and Mark Skousen. If interested, you can get information at The Mining Investment College site:

(Sun Mar 01 1998 09:08 - ID#287277)
Donald--FYI (This just happened to be on my desk--truly!)

Ghaznaavid: Ibrahim, AH 451-492 ( CE 1059-1099 )
Of Turkish extraction, the Ghaznavids were at first slave governors for the Samanids in and around Ghazna in modern Afghanistan. They became independent in AH 380 ( CE 999 ) and survived until AH 582 ( CE 1186 )

Of all the Ghaznavid Sultans, Ibrahim is an exception as he ruled without fear or favor. He was wise, beneficent and solicitous for the welfare of his subjects. He extended personal aid and grain to provide relief to the poor from famine.

However, when he found out that the source of the famine was the engrossing of the grain by wealthy merchants, he had the profiteers trampled to death by elephants.

Mr. Mick
(Sun Mar 01 1998 09:08 - ID#345321)
SDR_A - What is an XDR?
Sorry for my ignorance.........

Mr. Mick
(Sun Mar 01 1998 09:12 - ID#345321)
Goodbye US dollar.......................
Sunday March 1 7:58 AM EST

ASEAN Promotes Local Currencies for Trade

By Mantik Kusjanto

JAKARTA ( Reuters ) - The Association of South East Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) said on Saturday it
supported the use of local currencies to promote intra-regional trade, although one minister said the
plan would take time to gel.

In a joint communique after a two-day ASEAN meeting, the finance ministers from the region said
they endorsed the use of bilateral payment arrangements as proposed by the special task force of
ASEAN central banks.

"The approach will initially be implemented on a voluntary basis, with a view to evolving this facility
into a multilateral arrangement," the communique said.

However, Philippines Finance Secretary Salvador Enriquez told reporters on the sidelines of the
closed-door meeting that the proposal could take time.

"To put in place a mechanism and the arrangement, I think it will take some time," he said.

It has been proposed the regional central banks would act as clearing houses for trade payments and
would offset each other's receivables and pay the difference in dollars.

Indonesia's proposal to adopt a currency board to prop up the rupiah remained the focus on the
sidelines of the meeting although it was not on the official agenda.

Finance Minister Mar'ie Muhammad said the currency board plan to peg the rupiah to a single rate
was still being studied.

"The president ( Suharto ) has not decided yet," he told a news conference, adding that the proposal
was "still under study."

Meanwhile, Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said the impression he got after talking
to President Suharto and Mar'ie on Saturday was that Indonesia may not implement the currency
board plan immediately.

The communique also said that the long-term economic prospects of the region remained good
despite the current economic crisis.

"The ministers agreed that while the financial crisis had affected short-term economic and business
conditions in ASEAN, the long-term prospects in the region remained attractive and sustainable," it

Ministers agreed that the ASEAN surveillance mechanism would be established immediately within
the general framework of the IMF and with the assistance of the Asian Development Bank.

Peter Sullivan, vice-president of the Asian Development Bank ( ADB ) and one of the participants at
the meeting, said the surveillance mechanism was likely to be set up as soon as possible.

"We ( the ADB ) will assist in the initial year or two in helping to get it started and to provide technical
assistance to the secretariat," Sullivan told reporters.

"We would like to start as quickly as possible."

The ASEAN ministers urged the G7 countries to open their markets further to products from
ASEAN, called on Japan to take the lead in bringing the region out of the present crisis and urged
the G7 governments to encourage their banks to maintain credit support for ASEAN economies.

"We want G7 to take a more active role in Southeast Asia," Mar'ie told a press conference after the

The Asian financial crisis, which began in Thailand last July, has pummeled regional currencies lower
and pushed overseas debt to levels that can't be paid off in terms of the local currencies.

The worst hit were Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea, which have received financial assistance
from the International Monetary Fund and despite reforms, investor confidence has yet to be fully

In addition to Mar'ie, Anwar and Enriquez, finance ministers attending Saturday's meeting included
Myanmar's Khin Maung Thein, Singapore's Richard Hu, Thailand's Tarrin Nimmanahaeminda and
Vietnam's Nguyen Sinh Hung.

Deputy finance ministers from Brunei and Laos also attended.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 09:13 - ID#287277)
Mr. Mick--Hi! is something called a Special Drawing Right--
which is an interesting 'currency' created originally to replace the "less than reliable dollar" ( that a direct quote from a Canadian government briefing paper ) ..If you're interested in more, the IMF has a site from which one may garner a bit of information--
I haven't that URL at my fingertips, but after I've had a cup of coffee, I'll post it.. Hope this helped a little ( and that is not an "ignorant" question--99.235% of the population has no idea whatever what an XDR, SDR is!

(Sun Mar 01 1998 09:16 - ID#26793)
Thanks. Great stuff. Now we know why the dinar is so thin.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 09:16 - ID#153102)
We approach the hour, it seems to me, when two systems coincide in their period of increasing instability.

The one, the debt currency system, was not unstable in theory. In theory, the borrowing against the full faith and credit of the general government incurred during periods of contraction could be paid back during periods of expansion. Theoretically, liquidity crises would be impossible. But, the theory is political, fundamentally, as the debt currency itself is fundamentally political. And experience demonstrates growth in public debt everywhere. Debt currency theory is disproved by the susceptibility of human nature to moral hazard. There is also the observed fact that each period of contraction since 1960 has been deeper and longer and required more debt to end it. I am unaware if this indicator of inherent linear instability was anticipated in the theory of debt currency. But, some unforeseen point leading to permanent disequilibrium appears to have been passed.

The other system is that of floating currencies. This system has always been unstable tending to increasingly deepening periods of competitive devaluation for national interest. The Chinese knocked the system out of balance with devaluation. There is no feature in it that I know of which tends to equilibrium. Equilibrium has to be imposed politically like it was at Bretton Woods, after a general war.

The disease is political regulation of the economy. The cure is in treatment of the government by restoring to supremacy the civil authority of the States and reclaiming and distributing the confiscated gold. A jubilee approaches.

Is there a natal chart for these systems ? I can't imagine. But, their future coincidence of instability is certainly in our stars.

Mr. Mick
(Sun Mar 01 1998 09:17 - ID#345321)
SDR_A: Yes, I've heard of SDRs (any relation to you??:-))......
but didn't equate SDRs and XDRs. Thanks!

Mr. Mick
(Sun Mar 01 1998 09:21 - ID#345321)
Mozel - how is the confiscated gold you speak of......
to be "redistributed"? I'm confused.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 09:21 - ID#256254)
SDRer don't you ever sleep.

maybe these url will help Mr. Mick.





AS for the Dollar/Yen currency ratio. Cute, you have to give our government credit, they can twist anything. Less is More, on and on and ....

I wish someone would give us an update on what the Aden sisters are saying now. Maybe someone will respond today.

Mr. Mick
(Sun Mar 01 1998 09:24 - ID#345321)
Thanks for the URLs.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 09:34 - ID#153102)
@SDRer Thanks for the research.
Except it seems to me an unrealistically low target for POG, it makes a lot of sense.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 09:41 - ID#368244)
The Internet
Time and space have stood still since 1910. Now a new messenger has come to show all, the sin and inequities of those that were chosen to govern. Like the golden Phoenix, truth will arise from the ashes. Her talons shall be of gold, and she will tear apart the liars and deceivers.

Evil men, from foreign lands, laid in the course, and the whoremongers of the West followed their putrid plans. They caused untold suffering, but it was as nothing compared to the suffering to come.

But now, an electronic voice, a voice heard around the world, is singing the the song of their lies, TRUTH shall be silent no more.

Now, men of knowledge know the truth, and even they stand in awe, unable to believe that which seems so impossible. Time stands still no more. Days grow short, and yet they hesitate. I say better a day early, than one second late. For that which was, soon shall be, no more.

"Qouth the raven never more."

(Sun Mar 01 1998 09:47 - ID#398105)
aurator (every digit important)...................

What is the point of counting sheep, when we have the US Dollar ?

What was that last number again........US$ 5.5 trillion and counting.....

(Sun Mar 01 1998 09:56 - ID#153102)
The gold, if it can be found, would, I conceive, be divided among the States according to population. Then, minted, spent into the economy by the States or used by them to capitalize State chartered banks whose currency the State would spend into the economy. And after an announced future date, the greenback would no longer be legal tender except for a percentage of payments to the federal government by the States and for taxes to the States in lieu of gold or gold redeemable State currency. This would cause greenbacks to go out of circulation gradually and the economies of the several States eventually to compete freely and independently on gold. This is my conception, in which, of course, there is no role for the federal reserve or other agency for political regulation of the economy.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 10:07 - ID#411331)
@SDRer re: European manipulation of the spot Au market
If it has been the European CB's that have been actively manipulating the
spot price of gold downwards, why is it that day after day, for the past
month, I have seen the spot price plummet, not in London, but on the
COMEX. In fact, as long as the LME is open and overlapping the COMEX on the Kitco graph, gold stays up, but when London closes and only COMEX is open to affect spot prices, gold has been hit time and time again by shorts. I think it's American manipulation, not European!

(Sun Mar 01 1998 10:12 - ID#153102)
Agree 100%. Forward sale subsidy to N.A. mines with Bush and Jordan as senior advisors squares with this. A US purpose of keeping down the $ price of oil is ANOTHER's story and it, too, makes sense to me.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 10:13 - ID#398105)
Any bidders at US$ 280 per ounce..................

(Sun Mar 01 1998 10:17 - ID#57232)
Future debt deflation: Logging off for chores
mozel: I like your earlier comments about debt. The concept of debt is a good one, as long as you pay it back during good times. Unfortunately, we and our government have not been paying back the debt during the good times. I think this is directly related to the fact that our economic recoveries have been weaker each time we have had one over the last 40 years or so, and that our average standard of living in real dollars has dropped to pre-70's levels.

Our government/Fed reserve have acted in unison to prevent major recessions by stimulating the economy every time it has weakened ( inflating the money supply, or adding to the federal debt ) . The problem is that we have not eliminated the 'economic cycle'. We have just postponed it. Eventually all of the debt we have accumulated will come due, with a vengeance in a deflationary collapse, and then we will have the grandaddy of a depression. The circumvention of Gramm-Ruddman is an example of this.

Of course, the final reckoning may not be y2k, it may not be 2005. We may have a bumpy ride all the way to 2010-2015 when the baby boomers retire. I sincerely hope not -- because the longer we wait before we visit reality, the harder it will be.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 10:24 - ID#398105)
JTF (Future debt deflation: Logging off for chores)

A simple question............

The US National Debt goes up at the rate of US$1 to 2 billion dollars a day.

Given the growth in the American markets over the last few years, what is the daily capital gain on the markets, relative to the debt increase ?

Does any one have any figures ?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 10:31 - ID#288155)
Bits & Pieces
Rhody--You may well be right! For me, "where" is less important {:- )

Mozel--Thank you. What we need to contemplate here, is the fact that the DEM ( e.g. ) will be HALVED under EURO! So the ECU DOESN'T tell the 'whole' story...just gives us a glance at the "hole" [black]
They are going to devalue BIG TIME...the "pricings" that we so concern ourselves with may well be part of the Potemkin Village...

(Sun Mar 01 1998 10:31 - ID#57232)
ANOTHER (thoughts!)
Speaker for ANOTHER: I appreciate your comments to me yesterday, and that you will respond to my concerns with comments based on Allen ( USA ) , and mozel posts. I think it is fair to say that you, and the ANOTHER individual that you post for benefit from communicating with us, as we benefit from reading your posts.

I am not a trader, however, and most of us are not. The reason I am hoping you can give us more details about your concerns is simply that I am guessing that your comments regarding a paper disaster are premature. Please do not construe that as my not believing you -- I value your posts -- which seem sincere. But I also know that no one can accurately predict the future -- the precise when. As you may recall, ANOTHER has posted messages of disaster for more than 6 months.

So I repeat my plea -- as a gold investor -- not a trader! Please let us know what you know regarding what is coming -- are there any specifics you can give us -- web sites. Any central banks that have loaned gold, but cannot get it back. Information about when gold supplies at the LBMA, etc will dry up. I am talking about months to years.

You see, the disaster you speak of might actually wait till 2010-2015. That is also the approximate time for another 1980's type inflationary crisis in the USA, if you believe the long term cycles.

Respectfully, JTF

(Sun Mar 01 1998 10:39 - ID#26793)
Comex trading is not limited to Americans.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 10:43 - ID#57232)
Last post for while -- Market bubble and national debt
Haggis: I can't add very much to your recent question about the market buble and debt expansion -- except one thing. We have two ways of expanding the money supply -- one way is simply to print money, the other is to print money, but put the debt incurred into our federal deficit. I think the first approach is more obviously inflationary, and the second deferrs much of the pain until the baby boomers retire or we have a major recssion. Either way, the money created has a way of reaching the equity markets first if more money is truly being created.

Right now , I suspect all that is happening is that we are expanding the money supply to cover the treasuries that Japan is selling. Hence we are not adding to the stock market bubble, just to our national debt. I think it is reasonable to conclude that if our markets continue to rally, it will be because of the 'baby boomers' and not AG. Personally, I think AG considers the markets rather fragile right now with the SEAsia crisis, and Europe also on shakey grounds --so no interest rate increases. He may also be anticipating more dollar sales -- so that interest rate increases would be overkill.

Hope others have more insight into your questions.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 10:54 - ID#288155)
Rhody, Mozel--Comex & London....

As I mentioned before, Where strikes me as less important, one reason being that anyone can trade anything from anywhere instantaneously in our cyberworld. We have at LEAST three major threads entangled here...

As it is my belief that the USG ( facing a German government that said, in essence, Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me! refused to once again join in the USG paper chase ( Treasury debt ) and demanded tangible backing...hence the USGs ABX plan. Not a conspiracy, but a question, rather, of needs must!

There is an interesting article in this weeks Der Speigel about the German governments sacrifice of the Dmark to gain its new empire... ( Ill post the article--excerpts--later today ) . So, folks, there is enough here to keep us all scrambling.

Number one priority for us all ( ? ) : find some standard of measurement that gives us a benchmark pricing mechanism for those things we MUST price to get through this...bbl

(Sun Mar 01 1998 11:01 - ID#26669)
Haggis and All, some links: debt clock, gold demand and Ft Knox brochure
Here are three links I found, poking around the web today. 1 ) US debt clock 2 ) the place to download the World Gold Council February 25 issue of Gold Demand Trends 3 ) US government brochure page about Fort Knox gold depository. Note they value their gold at $42+/- per ounce, so each brick is valued at about $16000?

US Debt clock:

Download Gold demand trends for 97 new Feb 1998 issue in PDF file from WGC:

US government brochure about Ft. Knox gold depository:

I will refrain from editorial comments at this point, but ask has anyone found any more links to .gif or .jpg files of coins ( preferrably old ones ) or of precious metal artwork. If so, my email address is Any links you send are considered a free gift. ;^ )

(Sun Mar 01 1998 11:04 - ID#57232)
Haggis: I misspoke on my last post -- US interest rate increases would tend to make the dollar go up, and the markets down. My guess is that AG would prefer to keep the status quo to weaken the dollar somewhat so that anothere world-wide wave of deflation does not occur, and he certainly does not wish to 'tank' the US markets. At the same time he wants to discourage Japanese and other foreign sales of US treasuries.

I think I will keep my day job -- my job is complicated, but I do not envy AG. My hat goes off to him if he can keep 'the lid on'. But please -- lets not increase the national debt another trillion in the process.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 11:12 - ID#287277)
Sometimes the brain disengages!!!
Feb 26, 1998 at 12:00 EST

XDR 0.0045905 XAU/Unit, Units/XAU, 217.84
XEU 0.003157 XAU/Unit, Units/XAU 274.424
USD 0.0034130 XAU/Unit, Units/XAU 293.00
DEM 0.001882 XAU/Unit, Units/XAU 531.4

More coffee! Quick! bbl

Lan Man
(Sun Mar 01 1998 11:41 - ID#320108)
To Miles_A - About Fredrick Lips
The book is "The Power of Total Perspective" by R.E. McMaster, Jr.,

copyright 1994 ISBN 0-9643552-0-5. The quote is located in the Introduction, page 11


Although I have just started to read it, it seems that the subjects that he writes about are a collection of his thoughts and beliefs. R.E. has many quotes in the book, from Fed Govs to Austrian economists. As you may be aware of, he publishes "The Reaper" newsletter. I'll try to contact his office and see if I can get his e-mail address and will then follow up on any more details that come to light.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 11:44 - ID#26669)
Comment about the WGC 1997 demand report
Wow! I had only skimmed the report before posting its link. But here is some interesting poop: ( All IMHO of course. I'm just sitting at the computer, watching the world go by on a lazy Sunday afternoon. )

Developing countries Q4 demand was up 4% despite falls in some of the far eastern countries, but developed countries demand was up 8%. If this is true, then I wonder if maybe we've worried too much about the east asian crisis.

India's demand rose as we'd all known, but did you know that Turkey and the Gulf oil states also are huge consumers? Only five of the listed countries had a fall in demand.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 12:26 - ID#348286)
@NO KIDDING! "The financial crisis more serious, more widespread and more lasting than imagined"
Suharto: IMF reforms aren't enough to save Indonesia

March 1, 1998
Web posted at: 9:33 a.m. EST ( 1433 GMT )

JAKARTA, Indonesia ( CNN ) -- Veteran leader President Suharto, in his strongest comments yet on Indonesia's financial crisis, said Sunday the $40 billion economic bailout package of the International Monetary Fund had failed to restore economic confidence and that a more drastic plan was needed.

Suharto made the statements in a televised address to the People's Consultative Assembly, the mostly hand-picked top policy-making body, which is expected to re-elect him for a seventh five-year term as president next week.

"The financial crisis ... ( is ) more serious, more widespread and more lasting than anyone could have imagined," the 76-year-old leader said. "Our economic lifeline ( has ) begun to be compromised."

Suharto said his country remained committed to the economic and financial reforms and restructuring programs that came with the IMF's multi-million dollar aid package agreed to in January.

"However, there are no signs of improvement yet. On the contrary, the people's life is becoming more difficult," Suharto said.

"This is the reason why I have asked the IMF and other heads of government to assist us to find a more appropriate alternative," he said.

Suharto referred to this alternative as the "IMF Plus" plan, a term also used by U.S. economist Steve Hanke, who is now an adviser to Suharto.

- Indonesia's rupiah currency has lost 70 percent in value since July.
- Indonesia and the IMF agreed a $40 billion bailout package in January.
- Suharto has announced increased imports of food and medicines to address immediate needs.
- The economic crisis has sparked riots, in which five people have been killed.

Hanke on Saturday criticized the IMF reform plan as "fatally flawed" and said that he and Suharto envisaged more broad-based reforms, including large-scale privatization of state firms, adopting a controversial currency board and setting up a new bankruptcy code.

The IMF and several Western governments have rejected the idea of such a currency board system, under which the value of the national currency, the rupiah, would be pegged to the U.S. dollar. Critics say the system is inappropriate for Indonesia and extremely susceptible to attack because of the country's limited foreign exchange reserves and weak banking system.

Special U.S. envoy Walter Mondale is expected to repeat that criticism when he arrives on Monday for talks with Suharto.

The United States and other Western nations have been worried about the potential the economic crisis has to create more unrest in Indonesia -- a nation that dwarfs its neighbors in Southeast Asia and sits astride strategic sea-routes linking East and West.

In recent weeks, riots and protests over the deterioration of the economy have rocked more than 20 Indonesian towns. Five people were killed, and hundreds of houses and shops -- many of them owned by ethnic Chinese -- have been wrecked or burned by mobs. Many riots appeared to have been sparked by shortages and soaring prices of essentials such as rice, sugar and cooking oil.

"I shall not hesitate to do whatever possible to overcome the situation in order to alleviate the increasingly heavy burden of the people's life," Suharto said in his address Sunday.

Suharto said the government was seeking to increase food production in the short-term to ensure there was enough for the country's 200 million people.

"While waiting for this effort to produce results, we import essential foodstuffs to meet demand and maintain price stability," Suharto said.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 12:31 - ID#26793)
China Bank Meltdown. In worse shape than So. Korea

(Sun Mar 01 1998 12:34 - ID#34883)
Inca Civilization
Aurator/All/re: Thanks for the URL post: Roy Davies&Glyn Davies web site: A Comparative Chronology of Money --

Great URL, plenty of relevant info. Inquire for more info concerning Inca civilization : , seems as if this is the Central Planners utopia - I question it. Any related links/text references/etc.?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 12:38 - ID#348286)
@Hmmmmmm... Donald & all
Sure is begining to look like ASIA Financial Tidal wave # 2 may be splashing ashore soon.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 12:39 - ID#28594)
Donald, Nick@C--This is what I use...
as it is a lunar calendar, it takes a bit of 'getting used to'...

(Sun Mar 01 1998 12:40 - ID#26793)
20 million Chinese to lose jobs in next 600 days. Clash with police already

(Sun Mar 01 1998 12:46 - ID#342282)
Wow, you really get the details on your posts. Great work today. If you can't email ( and mine is out ) how about posting a good time to contact you. Thanx alot, Charlie

(Sun Mar 01 1998 12:48 - ID#26793)
Plague advances onm Australia

(Sun Mar 01 1998 12:52 - ID#26793)
Corruption threatens Chinese justice system

(Sun Mar 01 1998 13:05 - ID#266105)

A.Goose.Who.Questioned.Well Check this out for a starter...USD is STRONG! Yen
1992, Feb 26 1 USD = 129.730 JPY....
1998, Feb 26 1USD = 127.980 JPY

We can not afford to blithely accept what we are told...


It seems quite Orwellian. There's not much of it, within the
mediated feedback loop, that existed before last week nor will
beyond next. Something to be picked up daintily between thumb and
forefinger if found reposing on chair at dentist's office and
deposited elsewhere's lest something unclean be imparted.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 13:05 - ID#26793)
India consumed 737 tonnes of gold in 1997. Up 45%

(Sun Mar 01 1998 13:06 - ID#267276)
Van Eck
To All:
After 20 pages of explaining the problems around the wourld, and offering no investment options. Adrian Van Eck in his March 98 money forcast lettet ends the report like this: "It is at times like this...collapsing economies, blood in the streets and rapid domestic inflation in several foreign nations... that People in the past 5000 years have rediscovered th primary value of Gold in a World where nothing but Gold seems to offer them real security."

(Sun Mar 01 1998 13:11 - ID#28594)
All: from the media headlines, one gathers this is to be
"China Crashes Week" {:- )
A worthwhile Cato 'backgrounder on Chinese economic development for your consideration.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 13:13 - ID#335190)
1929 Crash @ Great Depression-Are you ready NOW?-Was Asia Ready?-In God We Trust?
Congressman Louis T. McFadden served twelve years as Chairman of the Committee on Banking and Currency. On June 10, 1932, in the midst of the Great Depression, he addressed the House of Representatives, asking for investigations of criminal conspiracy to establish the privately owned 'Federal Reserve System'. He requested impeachment of Federal officers who had violated oaths of office both in establishing and directing the Federal Reserve -- imploring Congress to investigate an incredible scope of overt criminal acts by the Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks. He refers to crimes including Broad, ongoing subversion of democracy; Conspiracy to remove the gold behind our currency to the foreign principals of these banks; the Financing of foreign military expansion in Germany and Japan with the very same gold removed from our public reserves;**** And conspiracy to bring about the Depression itself.

The iniquities of the Federal Reserve are plain. Up to Black Friday, incredible quantities of securities had been traded on short-term credit provided by the Federal Reserve. With the Federal Reserve's blessing, stocks were typically bought 'on margin' -- with the purchaser having only 10% of the funds, and borrowing the remainder from funds provided by the Federal Reserve. Purchases were necessarily turned over on equally short terms, to repay the debt incurred.

If you had $100, you could buy $1,000 worth of stock on $900 of short-term credit made available by the Federal Reserve. On a 15-day promissory note, you sold the stock two weeks later, for perhaps $1,100. The Federal Reserve gladly granted another buyer the credit necessary to re-purchase the stocks. Prices were consistently elevated by the very proportions of credit sanctioned by Federal Reserve policies.

In two weeks, after selling your $1,000 purchase for $1,1100 and paying your $900 debt, you had doubled your $100 savings -- which of course were immediately re-invested on further short-term credit. Particularly with a dramatically inflating circulation, no one could truly afford to leave their money outside of circles which did not directly swallow this stream of credit -- where the real value of money depreciated against the inflation brought on by an ever-inflated circulation. And so, there were no savings. Spare money rode the 'securities' market.

Swelled consistently by this steady stream of ever greater credit, the market would re-purchase the stocks. A perpetually inflated circulation alone made this both possible and necessary -- to fulfill the obligations of the ever greater debt simultaneously incurred.

As the exchanges closed on Black Friday however, suddenly the very same bankers who saw fit to inflate the costs of securities upon so much debt, now withdrew further credit from the market. Stockholders suddenly had the weekend to contemplate the prospect of selling their indebted stocks to a market which would now be deprived of the credit absolutely necessary to buy them as would fulfill the debt incurred in their purchase. Only 10% of the currency necessary to do so existed -- and even this was in the hands of the same bankers.

Tremendous short-term debt existed -- all soon due. Virtually no circulation existed to redeem this debt. Further credit, absolutely necessary to redeem the current debt, would no longer be available.

Hence, the following Monday could only see, all at once, the precipitous crash of the market; real ownership of commerce and real property fall into the hands of twelve private corporations by foreclosure and dispossession which ensued; and the initiation of the Great Depression.

..........It was mathematically impossible for the market not to crash.

The Republicans were defeated in this election for strong public distrust of their proposal to concentrate powers beyond democracy, in the central bank advocated by their 'Aldrich Plan.'

Despite the explicit platform of the Democrats for 1912, the 'Federal Reserve' nevertheless -- virtually the same Aldrich/Republican entity re-dressed under a different and very misleading name -- was created only a year later, in 1913, as an energetic project under Democrat President Woodrow Wilson.

Some people think the Federal Reserve Banks are United States Government institutions. They are not government institutions. They are private credit monopolies which prey upon the people of the United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign customers; foreign and domestic speculators and swindlers; and rich and predatory money lenders.

"Long before we wake up from our dreams of prosperity through an inflated currency, our gold will have vanished, and no rate of interest will tempt it to return.

ALL:.........This site is a must read.... FYI... Take Care.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 13:13 - ID#26793)
Was Warren Buffett's investment in silver a signal to buy gold?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 13:16 - ID#26793)
Prime Resources gold hedge strategy

(Sun Mar 01 1998 13:27 - ID#342282)
JTF your 10:43
It appears that this is as close as can be got now. Great post. It leaves the DOW hanging on an impressionable crowd-- the Baby Boomers. Thanx for your comments

(Sun Mar 01 1998 13:29 - ID#255284)
Carabella, they are out there mate...
Checking in briefly

Donald and his old dinar. I am sad to report that a week or so ago ( the day I found the 7000 tonne ad ) I had peregrinated around the WWW looking for references to Dinars & Dirhams. I found an auction catalogue that contained literally dozens of dinars and dirhams for an auction of very old coins in I think either Singapore or Hong Kong held in 1996/97 these dinar babies were estimated at about US$800, wich I thought was cheap. there were some pics of them. Thing is I jumped to this 7000 tonne add, got interested in it and never made a note of where that darned auction was, nor the URL. it slipped out of my hands folks. I even went looking again yesterday without success.

some of us gotta work to pay for a goldbug-jones

(Sun Mar 01 1998 13:30 - ID#286250)
2BRO2B--". Something to be picked up daintily between thumb and
That is very compelling imagery! Wish Id thought of it. {:- )

(Sun Mar 01 1998 13:39 - ID#266105)

ALL:.........This site is a must read.... FYI... Take Care.

) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) )

In the long term I feature plurality is a good thing.
Featuring long terms made of many shorts, maybe now 'cuz I
won't argue.

In that vein, Secrets of the Temple by WS Greider was
ok, mostly at 30,000ft the last half of last year. Greider
is around now and then, seems somewhat of a gadfly, has
more books I think.

'Temple', kind of a thickish, documented tome goes
back into the history of the Reserve but, published in
'87, mostly dwells on Burns, Miller, Volcker, early Greenspan.
Time has not been kind in my opinion, to that in that book
of its time. Still, it had alot that remains. What remains
does not square well with much if not most of that I've
seen here as regards the Reserve, often. That oregontrails
site above I visited last nite, tough read-- bad font on
on bad background...but got through it carefully. I didn't
find much of anything that squared with Greider's take on
things as regards the Federal Reserve System.

Again, plurality is a good thing in my conceited opinion.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 13:42 - ID#210235)
@6pak - 1929
Thanks for writing that exposition on the Fed in 29. I tried before to read that site, and couldn't make out the words for the wallpaper. Very good post. I'd read before about the Fed freezing short-term credit, precipitating the collapse, but haven't ever discovered exactly who the big beneficiaries of the crash are. Got any names of the 12 private corporations who made out?

We all know that the real assets in the USA didn't dissapear, just changed hands. INTO WHOSE?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 13:44 - ID#267276)
He may have bought all that silver and taken delivery as insurance against the year 2000 problem.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 13:46 - ID#255284)
Earl Grey or Gumboot?
That's the killer question, quite litterally. I posted here as have others, see Mcfaddens that gold went to Germany to fund the Nzis.

sticks in my craw when i think about it.

I like the Bumper Sticker Donald reported

Time for another tea party


(Sun Mar 01 1998 13:51 - ID#255284)
Give me a home where the Buffalo roam
Maybe, or because he knows that the Dirham will be minted in silver, it will need a whole lot of silver to get the Dirham back into circulation..

really gotta go


King Midas, now there's a gold bug has an intrinsic relationship with the Dinar, through the Anatloian Town
History and Geography
Dinar has a history going back to about 1200 BC. In VIIIth century BC King Midas
made Dinar ( then Meandros ) the capital of his kingdom. Dinar lost its importance
during the Byzantium era ( then Aremeia ) . Dinar survived as a small town in Selcuk and
Ottoman times ( then Geyikler ) becoming a county center of Afyon Province under
Turkish Republic.
Geographically, Dinar lies in the so-called "Region of Lakes" of southwestern Anatolia.

I might need a buffalo's home if i dont get off to work

(Sun Mar 01 1998 14:02 - ID#26669)
Donald, this will give you more info about gold consumption in India,
as well as the Arab states, US, Japan, China, etc. Repost of previous link...I have no commercial ties with WGC...

(Sun Mar 01 1998 14:02 - ID#252127)

About my post on XAU: The make-up of the XAU reflects on the the entire NA gold mining industry. I wonder why companies whose record over time been eradict should be a part of it.
On the otherhand, since things may finally be looking better for the PM's and the XAU is all we have to judge the PM industry by, I humbly retract my statement, but my mind is set.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 14:03 - ID#26793)
Those over-wallpapered sites drive me nuts. When you land on one use the left mouse button to highlight the text and then you can read it easily.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 14:09 - ID#330175)
EB.....and 'halftime report'--------------------*go gold*....
NY 43 la 46---- ( can you imagine how far ahead the Nics would be if 90% of their team wasn't injured?? )

(Sun Mar 01 1998 14:11 - ID#252127)

About my post on XAU: The make-up of the XAU reflects on
the the entire NA gold mining industry. I wonder why
companies whose record over time been eradict should be
a part of it.
On the otherhand, since things may finally be looking
better for the PM's and the XAU is all we have to judge
the PM industry by, I humbly retract my statement, but
my mind is set.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 14:14 - ID#330175)
James ......and the 'plum blossoms'
I cried when I heard they had fallen.........Weather Report: Day # 5 of dense fog ( no end in sight.... but the fog-horn sounds ) temp= 13 C

(Sun Mar 01 1998 14:27 - ID#330175)
Weather revision(DUH) the 1 didn't blong there
3 C....not 13 ( a pipe )

(Sun Mar 01 1998 14:34 - ID#341189)
Barrick news from Fri, I didn't see anyone's post on this.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 14:50 - ID#252127)

According to recent posts, the dinar is a 10 karat gold coin weighing 4.3 grams. Is this true?
If so, at 10 karats it should have about 1.88 grams of gold, or metal value of about $18.
It's companion, the silver dirham ( sp ? ) should buy a $12.60 chicken - that is in days of old, when that coin was worth 70% of the dinar.
Hope that the Middle East and Islam forms a trading block with the PM's and the above coins as backing.
Sure to start the ball rolling and help getting CB's out of everyones hair.
International News on Yahoo is indicating that the Asean block is closer to settling trade using their own currencies.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 14:59 - ID#252150)
Ted@You're having a heat wave & may be warmer than us
Lots of sailboats out on the St. They are heading over to take a look at the huge behemoth--the U.S.S. Lincoln. It's amazing when you see these little sail boats close to the Lincoln. Something like a herring beside a sperm whale.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 15:08 - ID#252127)
Correction @14:50

Last sentence about Asean nations should read "Headline News- International at Excite" whose url is

(Sun Mar 01 1998 15:14 - ID#359316)
May I be the first to comment on Barrick's Pierina open-pit mine producing 750,000 ounces of gold a year at an operating cost of $50 per ounce... that does seem terribly low.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 15:15 - ID#153102)
@MrMack @Hashimoto @Timetable & Forward Sales
@MrMack As supplement in answer to your previous question, do not overlook that in such circumstances gold would be mined wherever it was known to be. In addition, silver could be monetized. And so long as the exchange rate between coins of gold and silver was a flexible open market and not an official, fixed exchange rate, and cross exchange loans and contracts were not lawful or legal, there would plenty of media of exchange.

@Hashimoto It has crossed my mind that it would be uncharacteristic of a Japanese to make a remark like the one attributed to Hashimoto unless the gold or , at a minimum, contracts for gold delivery were not already secured.

@TimeTable Why the POG is so low is not certain, but that it is in the interest of many parties that as much gold be acquired at this price as possible is certain. No one has an interest in an increase in the $ price of gold except a few long speculators and the miners. It would be wise to bear this in mind when impatience come on you. Because the acceptance of forward sales by LBMA means that a substantial future portion of gold production is going to be accummulated at this low price. Big paper is in control. And big paper wants gold for as low a price as possible. JMHO.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 15:19 - ID#341189)
Here is another link to news Jack pointed out. Very important IMHO

(Sun Mar 01 1998 15:23 - ID#252150)
Ted@I was thinking if 13 was your indoor temp, then you had better turn up
your thermostat. I worked as a weather observer in Summerside, PEI & I can remember some freak storms that came right up from the S.E. U.S. around this time of the year. However, I doubt if the record temp is much over 10c. I guess that's enough weather talk for today.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 15:28 - ID#26793)
Nikkei forecast and analysis for this week

(Sun Mar 01 1998 15:30 - ID#252150)
Mozel@Your 15:15 is exactly right on
Especially you last paragraph.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 15:33 - ID#26793)
Those Asean countries all need dollars to pay their extensive dollar denominated bills already incurred. This arrangement is dollar avoidance. Do you suppose they are setting this up to survive between themselves and then will default in unison after it gets going?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 15:34 - ID#210235)
duhhhh - I should have thought of that! Been in California too long.

BTW, I'm going to pass Crittenden's article under the noses of a couple of therapist friends trained in Jungian analysis, to get their impressions of her critique. She may be the key to Farfel's dream of changing the perception. I totally agree with Farfel the unpronouncable that perception is the key to freeing up people from the market mania. It's a near-religious belief system which has captured people's imaginations. It is very difficult to penetrate with logic. Even folks who wouldn't dream of gambling on the stock market 10 years ago are selling their CD's and jumping in. If these analysts see the light, we'll have a great starting point.

I have the dream, fool that I am, of helping to protect my friends, and getting them back into a secure financial position when the music stops.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 15:34 - ID#341189)
@Trinovant - On Barrick
I assume they are talking cash production cost @ $50. At $300/ ounce ( US ) , this will add 50 cents/share on cash basis before interest, depreciation and taxes. ( US $ ) With hedging, who knows.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 15:34 - ID#252150)
A little bleary eyed this morning-actually 12:30 pm.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 15:38 - ID#26793)
Korean debt roadshow. What? You're worried about getting paid?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 15:39 - ID#341189)
@Donald, On SE Asia future defaults
You stated out loud the same thought I had, but I was afraid it sounded too reckless. But with an increacingly toothless US, we may see many strange and wonderful regional adventures.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 15:44 - ID#26793)
If you can get a copy of Barron's for tomorrow look at the Steve Puetz graph on page 3?, Alan Abelson column. It shows the suspected amount of home equity loans that are going directly into the stock market.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 15:46 - ID#252150)
Must be a motherlode close to the suface. It's my understandig that they try to get at the richest deposits initially, so that they can amortize the expenses associated with a new mine as quickly as possible. That's why the operating costs keep going up over the years until eventually most mines become uneconomic before they are completely depleted.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 15:53 - ID#31876)
Colin Seymour Has New Links For March 1...

(Sun Mar 01 1998 15:59 - ID#153102)
I think Ed Yardeni has a graph at his site comparing increase in consumer debt and rise in stock equity prices. If consumer debt is subtracted from stock market price increase, not very much, relatively speaking, is unaccounted for. Less than 25%, I think.
Most people do not categorize a loan on home equity as debt, figuring they can pay it off by selling the property and discounting almost to nothing the possibility it might have to be paid from earnings.
I could not make your example of your father's sale of the house for $ or oz work out.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 16:04 - ID#330175)
EB.....'Game of the Year'!-----------------------------
EB: N.Y. Nics 101- la lakers 89--- ( a blow-out! ) har har har...Shaq is a 'stiff'~~~~~~~James: The U.S.S. Lincoln must be an impressive sight,huh.....still in a 'deep-fog' here!

(Sun Mar 01 1998 16:06 - ID#26793)
IMF is locked in a time warp. England must say no to the bailout.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 16:12 - ID#31876)
If You Hate Rush, Don't Read This....

(Sun Mar 01 1998 16:17 - ID#26793)
My point on the 1939 house sale was meant to show that deflation, as was rampant in 1939, increases the purchasing power of gold. As credit is not available cash is king. House prices drop to meet the available cash price, not an inflated credit purchase price. The house that could be had in a cash transaction for 57 ounces ( then ) is available in an easy credit environment ( now ) for 233 ounces. That is in spite of 60 years of wear and tear. Most gold holders are looking for inflation. I think they will be surprised to learn that deflation is the better result. You get a tax loss to boot, even though you really had a silent non-taxable profit. It is the reverse of inflation where you are taxed on inflationary non-profits.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 16:29 - ID#28594)
Sun Mar 01 1998 15:39--Carl (@Donald, On SE Asia future defaults)

Remember that extraordinary Chinese bookkeeping ( i.e., Truthful! ) And the
summary comments: "The current financial and banking situation in China is not encouraging because it carries a latent crisis--a serious financial and banking crisis--not the common financial risks..." This is the summary of the symposium on China's financial system and financial risks! In Beijing...and all the comments from Chinese Government Officals! Oh yes indeedy, that's just what we might expect!

(Sun Mar 01 1998 16:29 - ID#28585)
Hey, kid, we hardly recognized ya, it really is a surprise
To learn your 52 years old, ya seem younger to our eyes
And now that you've turned 52
And you're led by a Frenchie named Camdessus
It's time to reflect on all you've become
Our buddy, the International Monetary Fund....

Happy Birthday, Happy Birthday, IMF
You steal our tax monies till there's hardly any left
Dropping them into the eager hands of corrupt, national elites
Who buy American dollars, stocks, bonds and Ford jeeps.

Hey, kid, we hardly recognized ya, it really is a surprise
To learn you sold out to all those Wall Street investment guys
Why don't you tell it like it really is?
You only exist to help America's Big Biz
Your lies about helping suffering nations bring us to tears
Of raucous laughter, you'll never BS us after all these years.

Happy Birthday, Happy Birthday, IMF
You steal our tax monies till there's hardly any left
Dropping them into the eager hands of corrupt, national elites
Who buy American dollars, stocks, bonds and Ford jeeps.

Hey, kid, we hardly recognized ya, it really is a surprise
You're still good at giving ultimatums and telling pathetic lies
But what if the Asians get really bold
Dump your U.S. dollars, then go buy gold
We guess that would surprise ya, leave ya feeling pretty dumb
And that would be the end of the International Monetary Fund.

Happy Birthday, Happy Birthday, IMF
You steal our tax monies till there's hardly any left
Dropping them into the eager hands of corrupt, national elites
Who buy American dollars, stocks, bonds and Ford jeeps.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 16:44 - ID#57232)
Chinese Devaluation -- Seeing the future dimly.
Donald: You have done it again -- looks imminent! The official quotes were somewhere between $300-600 billion US in bad debt.

Donald,All: What should we expect if China devalues? I'm not sure, but I would guess that SEAsia would plummet once again, but probably not as much during the last six months. Ironically, China will be the best SEAsian investment choice after the dust settles! The US markets would twitch short term, but nowhere near as much as Japan. I don't think this would trigger the big one in the US. The US dollar might actually go up due to flight to safety - short term. But if Europe goes later, that is another matter entirely.

Intermediate to long term, Japan could be in even worse shape, with a likely spread to South America and Europe. I think anyone in Gold equities intermediate to long-term will have to be nimble. If Europe deflates explosively, it will very likely pull down the US markets in a big way -- including the gold stocks, even if they have little left to fall. And, if the gold stocks explode like the way they did in 1987, all the more reason to be nimble a few months from now when you have a profit.

Beware the gold bug Tsunami -- the ride may be exhilarating, the rise stupendous, but the crash at the beach sobering.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 16:44 - ID#266105)
@home,home on d'range

aurator, Wanniski's Polaris, good stuff all V parts

and appendix.

___________________________________________________________recommend the Gold Polaris series

(Sun Mar 01 1998 16:45 - ID#335190)
Prometheus @ 13:42 & 2BRO2B @ 13:39
"12 private Corporations"
The government National Resources Committee Reported in 1939 that the nation's economy was largely controlled by eight ( 8 ) comparatively small groups of men "BY no means independent of each other "

The eight ( 8 ) groups, controlled $61,000,000,000 of investments in industrial corporations, railroads, banks, and public utilities, were:
1 ) Morgan-First National
2 ) Rockefeller
3 ) Kuhn,Loeb
4 ) Mellon
5 ) du Pont
6 ) Chicago group
7 ) Cleveland group
8 ) Boston group

1914: Federal Reserve Organization Committee appointed by Woodrow Wilson, January 07 1914 meeting. This committee was to select the location of the "decentralized" reserve banks. They were empowered to select from eight ( 8 ) to twelve ( 12 ) reserve banks, although J.P. Morgan had testified he thought that not more than four ( 4 ) should be selected. As the twelve ( 12 ) cities thus favored would become enormously important as centers of finance.

New York, ( 1 ) of course , was a foregone conclusion. Richmond ( 2 ) was the next selection, as a payoff to Carter Glass and Woodrow Wilson, the two ( 2 ) Virginians who had been given political credit for the Federal Reserve Act.

The Other selections of the Committee were Boston ( 3 ) Philadelphia ( 4 ) , Cleveland ( 5 ) , Chicago ( 6 ) , St. Louis ( 7 ) , Atlanta ( 8 ) , Dallas ( 9 ) , Minneapolis ( 10 ) Kansas ( 11 ) , San Francisco ( 12 )

They finance and control political developments in their area, name candidates, and are seldom successfully opposed in their plans.

With the setting up of the twelve ( 12 ) "financial districts" through the Federal Reserve Banks, the traditional divisions of the United States into the forty-eight ( 48 ) states was overthrown, and we entered the era of "regionalism", or twelve ( 12 ) regions which had no relation to the traditional state boundaries.

For many years, there has been considerable mystery about who actually owns the stock of the Federal Reserve Banks.

Because the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was to set the interest rates and direct open market operations, thus controlling the daily supply and price of money throughout the United States, it is the stockholders of that bank who are the real directors of the entire system.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York issued 203,053 shares, and, as filed with the Comptroller of the Currency May 19, 1914, the large New York City banks took more than half of the outstanding shares.

The Rockefeller Kuhn, loeb-controlled National City Bank took the largest number of shares of any bank, 30,000 shares. J.P.Morgan's First National Bank took 15,000 shares. When tese two ( 2 ) banks merged in 1955, they owned in one block almost one fourth of the shares in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which controlled the entire system, and thus they could name Paul Volcker or anyone else they chose to be Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Chase National Bank took 6,000 shares. The Marine National Bank of Buffalo, later known as Marine Midland, took 6,000 shares. This bank was owned by the Schoellkopf family, which controlled Niagara Power Company and other large interests.

The shareholders of these banks which own the stock of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are the people who have controlled our political and economic destinies since 1914.

The New York Times stated that the Federal Reserve Banks would be ready for business on August 1 1914, but they actually began operations on November 16 1914. At that time, their total assets were listed at $143,000,000, from the sale of shares in the Federal Reserve Banks to stackholders of the national banks which subscribed to it.

The actual part of the $143,000,000 which was paid in for these shares remain shrouded in mystery. Some historians believe that the shareholders only paid about half of the amount in cash; others believe that they paid in no cash at all, but merely sent in checks which they drew on the national banks which they owned.

This seems most likely, that from the very outset, the Federal Reserve operations were "paper issued against paper", that bookkeeping entries comprised the only nalues which changed hands.

FYI.......Take Care.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 16:47 - ID#210235)
I couldn't find your URL. Been reading that the big loser if China has any sort of collapse, will be Japan. Trying to put it all together. Sharefin's got it - neverending jigsaw puzzle. A shapeshifter, too.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 16:51 - ID#222231)
JTF-Thank you for your answer yesterday, but I do'nt think I expressed myself as to what I mean'nt!
Please excuse my lack of ability to pen as you or others and bear with me.

As to AG's competency, I certainly agree that he is competent to head the FRB. But, I think that the majority of our problems are because of the FRB. There is much on the web that will attest that the FRB was probably the largest farce pulled off almost in the middle of the night to rob Americans and keep them in servitude forever. This scam was pulled off by foriegn interests. I know what you will say next! That the FRB is owned by the American Banking interests. It is! But the directors of these banks are so hidden and mysteriously intertwined, that it is impossible to really determine who is really pulling the strings.

Our economy is rife with periods of inflation, recession, and at times deflation. These periods cause the loss by many Americans of thier property, assets and hope. I now know what you will say next. It's Congress, with thier deficit spending for whatever that really causes these periods. Let's look at the facts. The FRB expands money supply to alleviate these periods; either contraction when inflation heats up; expansion during recessionary periods.

Now, hopefully, I can express my thoughts MORE clearly ( which I sincerely doubt ) . When the FRB was created, they had the authority create money as desired. Our Government will never be able to pay off debt accumulation. To whom is this debt ( usary ) paid to? What better way is there to control a government ( including politicians ) than to keep them continuously in debt. Our government could create money and do this without a CB. We could create money as needed, backed by the assets of a great country. Once this money is paid off interest free, there would be no usary that the government would have to pay. After all, the money they would loan is created by a fractional reserve system, same as the FRB does now. Why was the FRB enacted? Who benefits? Certainly not Americans. Who was it that said, "GIVE ME THE ABILITY TO CREATE MONEY, AND I CARE NOT WHO RUNS THE GOVERNMENT"? This ability to create money fills the pockets of these scumbags in perpuity thru usary. It also gives them the opportunity to, first pull all the suckers in during inflation, and then put on the brakes, where they can buy up assets for pennies on the dollar ( look at Asia as an example ) . This cycle continues, and will continue forever, until we, as Americans put a stop to it.

As an example, take the seventies. The Fed expanded and created credit with a vengence. They could have stopped this expansion of credit much earlier. I remember prices increasing 10%, 15% and more every year for over ten years. The Vietnam war was partially responsible for this, but that war was not neccessary and a disaster for the US and was probably fought for some other ulterior motive. We will never know, will we? Then Volkler came along and said to us, this has to stop! Inflation that we the people created by our spending habits. We need to increase the prime rate to an exhorbitant level in order to stop us big spenders ( tongue in cheek ) . I wonder how many businesses and people went bankrupt? Who or what gained for pennies on the dollar this time? Who or what will gain again currently? WHO HARDLY EVER HAS TO PAY THE PIPER? WHO IS CONTINUOUSLY BAILED OUT OF JAMS BY TAX PAYER DOLLARS? When all of the suckers being pulled into the equity market ( THE BURNING MATCH THEORY ) , finally crashes, which it will eventually, see thier life savings evaporate ( as is happening in Asia now ) , who or what will gain again?

As far as I'm concerned, AG and party are all part of a scam enacted in 1913. Why was AG nominated and by who? ( Remeber, he was a republican nominated by Reagan, when his term came up again during Clintons REIGN, why did'nt Clinton nominate someone of his party, sounds fishy to me, but then again, what do I know. ) He has to be a party to those who control the purse strings.

The only thing that will put a stop to this robbery, continuous cycles of inflation and recession, is the ability for we the people to create our own money, which is expanded within limits of gross national product growth, and of course, backed with "GOLD" that is not fooled around with.


(Sun Mar 01 1998 16:59 - ID#153102)
Gold backed won't cut it. Ask the French who lived from 1945-58. When redeemability is repealed, the amount of gold in the Bank doesn't mean squat. Gold and silver coin in circulation is the only check on government spending that works. That was also the point of Buffet's father's speech in '48.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 17:20 - ID#258129)
S&P, Gold, Silver and other things
I made some charts of S&P / Gold and S&P / Silver ratios - Dow is often used, so I was wondering, how it will look like with S&P. While doing this, I was also thinking about Gold/Silver ratio - I do not use it usually - how important is it? So I also plotted S&P/Gold against S&P/Silver - and got an interesting ( IMO ) result - there are areas where this ratios behaves differently. Please, find charts and the rest in attached file.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 17:22 - ID#222231)
Mozel-Thanks for your input.
If we had an honest system that did not dilute money, it would work. After all, why did the French renege. Because they debased thier money. Some sort of comprise has to be made for growth of a large population.

My main theme is that the Fed is an agent of those other than the American people. And BTW, gold and silver coin in circulation, and payments for debt is the IDEAL way, but, IMHO, not workable. There is just not enough available for this current world.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 17:23 - ID#57232)
Our debt is due to Tax and Spend -- Signing off to finish chores
Pete: I quickly scanned your post -- was not able to read it all in detail. I agree that the Fed does not necessarily respond to the best interests of the American people -- it really answers to other world banks, behind the scenes. For example, why is AG a member of the board of the BIS? -- it may not be as simple as it seems.

However, I differ with you in one respect. It is our tax and spend Congress that is the real threat to the future of the average American. You cannot blame AG for rising tax rates, rising National debt -- now 20 trillion with official and unofficial debts, and our dropping standard of living -- down nearly 15% in constant dollars from 1970. The Gini ratio bottomed in 1968, and has been rising ever since, showing the loss of wealth by the average American, and the shift of wealth to the wealthy few.

Just think of how things would be right now if AG was at the beck and call of Congress -- things would be much worse. So -- you can complain that AG answers more to world bankers than he does to Congress -- but strangely enough, that has been very fortunate in most instances, due to the rather poor performance of our Congress.

Now -- in one scenario I would agree with you -- if it turns out that our Fed is adding 1 trillion of new debt this year to bail out the rest of the world's SEAsia-induced debts -- I will be standing next to you, complaining just as loud as you! I am all for helping the world survive this crisis, but I don't think that means we ( the American people ) should be bailing out all the creditors of the world who have made sour investments. These assets can be put to better use.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 17:32 - ID#222231)
If any politician spent more than allowable, a law enacted that would put them to the Guilotine, would stop them cold in thier tracks. It is still up to the people to insist that they act in a responsible way. Where would the average person be if they did,nt live and spend within a budget that is honest and realistic?



(Sun Mar 01 1998 17:34 - ID#256326)
delphic ratios
ratio 4 is the silver/gold ratio.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 17:39 - ID#256326)
more ratios
The value of the Dow/gold ratio is that it tells one right off the relative values of the two entities, as in "how many ounces of gold does it take to buy 100 shares each of the 30 Dow stocks?" Or the reciprocal. Normalization gives you relative rates of return over a prescribed period.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 17:39 - ID#341189)
SDRer, I've been thinking - always fun, but sometimes fruitless.
I've been wondering if the preocupation with currencies, leading to "flation" worries isn't obscuring a more fundamental meaning of price. That is, the web of ratios making up the relative prices of things in terms of other things. For example, the dow/gold ratio seems to be very illuminating, but it stands alone. I've never seen, for example, a graph of the price of an ounce of gold's worth of earnings of the Dow stocks over time ( we would have to calculate the dollar price of an ounce of gold each year and multiply it by the price/earnings ratio of the Dow Stocks for that year ) , or an interest rate history stated in terms of a commodity equivalent. Still thinking.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 17:49 - ID#57232)
Addendum - I'm beginning to understand what you are referring to.
Pete: I think I understand now what you are saying -- are you concerned that much or most of our debt comes from the credit expansionary periods that the Fed Created to pull us out of recessions? And, are you saying that only the Fed can create inflation? These are both serious matters, and I am not certain how much of the blame should be placed on the Fed and how much on Congress.

I don't know how much of our debt has come from direct expansion of the money supply, and how much from increased government spending during recessionary times. Either way, a responsible Congress should have tightened their belt and cut spending so that deficits would have been less. As mosel has pointed out, credit expansion does have its value during hard times, but the debt needs to be paid back during good times.

I guess what I am saying is that I can live with inflation, as long as it is controlled. But -- I cannot live with spiralling debt, which ultimately will lead to catastrophe.

I will admit that even if Congress and the American people are ultimately responsible for our debt fiasco, it is the bankers that have given us so many clever ideas how they can make money while we borrow to buy things we cannot afford.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 17:54 - ID#57232)
Signing off -- will check in later when those from Downunder return
All: It may be interesting to see how the China and Japan markets do tonight. The next few weeks may be lively -- even without XXXgate.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 18:03 - ID#28594)
Prometheus@can' Sorry! I used the url from a hard copy, and
this particular site is a MAZE--they make you work for what you get!
Go to the url and then ramble around in the Economic forecasts area ( try them all if you're interested in China! ) Hope this helps...

Carl--Yes! that is the core of what I was talking about--except, of course, I wasn't saying it as clearly, logically or well! {:- ) I think we are close to find the "pricing mechanism"! Sometimes maybe the "little guys" do rather well.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 18:26 - ID#335190)
JTF @ 17:23
"Tax & Spend-You can not blame AG- The Powers To Be"

The issue is the Federal Reserve, not a Mr. A.G., what the hell has he got to do with the crimes against the USofA citizen. He can be considered a nice person but stupid. That is usually the best types of people to advance to leadership roles, as are the elected leaders, that obviously scare you. ( Tax and Spend )

And in turn your intentions to scare others that in a free and honest democracy such fools would be elected. Yes, that is democracy, yet, many checks and balances exist, to put these scam artists in their place, in a free and honest democracy. ( Constitution-Bill of Rights-Citizens' Voice )

The present economic "System" inacted in 1913-14, has caused a problem in economic terms,terms of freedom, and elected control of government.

The "system" produced such an agency as the Federal Reserve Corporation, will we ever know if the advancements of the USofA would have been more positive without the Federal Reserve? Would the elected leaders have been more positive in their respective Tax and Spend habits?

JTF you are playing on FEAR. The question you raise regarding Tax and Spend is smoke and mirrors. The vast majority of the USofA citizen's do not know about the Federal Reserve-Currency-MAI-Free Trade Deals-Balance of Trade-Debts-Deficits-Inflation-Deflation ETC. ETC.

I consider myself to be one of those citizen's, I do not fully understand these issues, I struggle to come to terms with the ELECTED REPRESENTATIVES in a democracy giving away the power of economic balance of a powerful country to a bunch of SUITS-BANKERS-IVORY TOWER TYPES. yet, they have the nerve to stand before a democratic nation such as CANADA and tell us that our future is secure because we live in a country that supports the doctrine of "WE THE PEOPLE" and these elected scum bags are bought and paid for by the likes of the FEDERAL RESERVE-CENTRAL BANKERS-Multinational Corporations-World Religion-Globalization-IMF Etc.

World Corporate Bailouts:
Demand from elected government representatives,"We The People" taxpayers/workers wealth, to bailout World Corporations, to have those very corporations throw out of work, the taxpayer/worker because of cheap imports, cheap wages etc. Power grab by, as you say "The Powers To BE" whoever the hell that is????? Who, What, is "The Powers To Be"??????

That is my take on TAX AND SPEND ( paper money has no value, hell you can burn it, or spend it, makes no difference, it is a myth a mirage. Labour has value-Gold has value-Life has value. WEALTH is a yard stick-UNITS! )

JTF....FYI& FWIW.....Take Care.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 18:26 - ID#270227)
Carl.....Keep right on thinking.....Helps us all :-)
Referring to your P/E ratio "sprinkled" with Gold ..... I am curious as to what we might come up with if we "key" in the Axiom:
Mankind cannot consume more than it produces !

AG knows this.....and I knew AG..... A long time ago :- )
I would also like to thank the folks down under etc for the early clues to the Asian markets & Gold.
Have a great day.....

(Sun Mar 01 1998 18:28 - ID#258129)
@ aurophile, 17:34
"ratio 4 is the silver/gold ratio" - may be I am missing something - silver spot / gold spot = about 0,022

(Sun Mar 01 1998 18:48 - ID#256326)
delphic ratio
( S&P/Gold ) / ( S&P/silver ) = silver/gold. no?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 18:50 - ID#348129)
Large front page article in Saturdays edition:
Barrick, World Gold Council and other large Gold producers have hired a team to directly lobby european central banks
to cease selling their Gold etc etc.
At least some action is finally being taken by the producers.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 18:52 - ID#252150)
I stated in several posts going back @ least 2 months that the situation in Japan was much worse than most people could even imagine. I do believe though, that the message is finally getting thru.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 18:54 - ID#256326)
That reminds me of Peter Cooke's quip that he was so opposed to World War II that he wrote a letter to the Times.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 18:54 - ID#30116)
Believe it or not...
I saw a T.V. promo for a new game show the other day. The concept? Three debt laden individuals come on to the 'game' show. The winner leaves with 'nothing' ( i.e. All debt paid off. ) The losers go home to face their creditors. Only in Amerika... Pathetic...

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:02 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter
I have been lurking here quite regularly over the last several months. I have not seen much discussion of the Y2K ( "year two thousand" ) here and wondered what consideration it is being given by some of the pros. Although most of the pros see everything they need to see in the charts, and maybe don't care about the "cause", I think the problem is much more serious then most are thinking. Most of the participants in this chat seem to agree that WHEN this bull ends, the bear will be vicious, even if they can't agree on where it will end, but the more I learn about this Y2K problem the more it looks like this will be associated with a market disaster more than any other factor. Therefore it seems that a major bottom would have to be reached by 1/1/2000 at the latest, and probably earlier. The market can't keep going up all the way into 2000 and then all of a sudden everyone realizes what a disaster we have waiting for it and then they rush to the exits. If not for this Y2K problem, I would tend to agree with Oleman that the Clintons will never leave the White House. Every scandal just makes him stronger. But if this is a supercycle ( a la 1929 ) degree top like many suggest, and a GrandSupercycle ( since late 1700's ) degree top like Prechter suggests, can we not expect a selloff of 70-90% when the bear comes? If so, and if we get a large part of it before the general public realizes the seriousness of the Y2K problem, than how much longer can this bull last?

Also, we will be having Y2K problems before Y2K actually gets here. One way this will be true is with fiscal years, the calculations for which will be made months in advance. And, I am told, state government mainframes, when they misread the dates on independent vendor contracts, will condider the contracts expired or obsolete and will automatically cancel them into nothingness. Vendors won't get paid, and services ( so to speak ) will grind to a halt. Another problem will occur with those computers that are programmed to interpret the digits 99 as meaning "cease all computer functions". Apparently, through another lack of foresight, programmers in the 60's needed a simple way to shut down computers for maintenance or repairs, not anticipating that they would one day represent 1999, and bringing the the looming problems another year closer. And once the public realizes the scope of the problem, it won't be long before they panic. I am not trying to shift the focus away from the markets, and don't want to offend any of the pure technicians, but if any fundamental is worth discussing, I think it is this millenium bug. I would be interested in the views of other avidites and would like to see it discussed a little more if anyone has any comments on this situation as it may relate to the markets.

As for my near term market outlook, I think we still have a ways to go before THE TOP is in, but the current rally seems a little stretched even for a mania, and favor a pullback starting now, which will eventually prove to be another buying opportunity, but if we break through the mid 8600's or so, we can probably continue higher without a pullback for a while. Thanks AVID for this great forum; will scroll back later to see if anyone has any comments about Y2K, or anything else.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:05 - ID#263133)
Whatever happened with RJ's promise to post comments on Platinum after his mtg. w/ Platinum Guild person???

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:10 - ID#222231)
JTF & Gpak
AG is far from stupid. He, gentlemen, is part and parcel of the establishment bankers. He was put in his position because, as you say, the powers that be knew he would do thier dirty work and still make everyone believe he's doing a magnificant job.


(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:13 - ID#267276)
For more on year 2000 problem go to

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:16 - ID#258129)
@ aurophile, 18:48
No, it is not. If you will look at the [last one] chart, Ive posted at 17:20, there is no time involved. Your equation is true for a selected time moment. Chart, I have posted, is static and [intend to] study the nature of the system. On X-axes we have all S&P / Silver ratios in a given time frame, no matter when [what day] they happened , and on Y-axes - corresponding S&P/Gold ratios. So, it is possible, that the very first [in time] point to build this chart comes somewhere in the middle of the X-axes, next - in the very beginning, and so on. If one will plot these points one by one in a time sequence, points will appear on a chart not moving to the right, as in time series analysis, but random. But it builds not random picture after all.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:17 - ID#26793)
Finally!...FDIC begins to worry about derivatives (Thanks Morgan

Mr. Mick
(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:17 - ID#345321)
Mozel, sorry so late, just read your answer to my question this morning....
and just who is going to retrieve the gold that has been handed over to the Fed? Doesn't your scenario presuppose a turnover of control and/or gold by the federal government? Not likely, IMHO.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:21 - ID#393224)
Kitco University
G'morning all.
Isn't it great to log on to Kitco Uni and find all this fantastic information and meeting of minds. Donald--thanks for the Islamic chronology. SDRer--ditto for Hegira conversions. What a coincidence having history of Ibrahim/Ghznavids sitting there. I especially liked his punishment for grain profiteering. I suggest we round up central bankers and fund short sellers and have them all trampled to death by elephants!! Wouldn't that send the price of gold up!!

Aussie gold shares up @3% this a.m.--but on light volume. Not convincing at all, but then Mondays are always slow as we wait for big brother ( s ) to give his/their approval of the rally.

AFR article this am says Aussie producer forward sales this past year have increased 50%. Dec. Quarter increase of 140 tonnes alone--an 11% increase on previous quarter. The 41 largest producers now have hedged 1400 tonnes of gold in forward sales, options and gold loans. Apparently, staying in business is more important than possible windfall profits ( if gold should rise ) . Spot gold is $A430 but producers have achieved average forward price of $A621. Three years of production now sold forward.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:22 - ID#348129)
@Here's the full story --------- Mulroney, Crow lobby for Gold
Hired by World Gold Council members, they urge central
bankers to hang onto holdings, help prop up weak prices

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:23 - ID#222231)
I believe the problem is overblown. When the year 2000 arrives, most computors will say it is the year 1900. Why not something as simple as a program that converts the date 1900 to 2000. This would apply only to dates.

Then all calculations would be computed from 1999 to 2000. Nah, to simple. Anyway, I've seen others on the web say that unneccessary hysteria is being promoted by this problem. I'll try to locate same and forward thier conclusions to all shortly. Of course, this is all IMHO, and I may wind up eating CROW.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:25 - ID#228128)
Gold Opening up in the far East and climbing for $300

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:28 - ID#267276)
Global market update
In the GST Global Market Update out last week, it stated the following scenarios. 1 ) Maximum commitment to asia will be $500 billion from the IMF ( $100 billion from U.S. ) . Time frame: start of negative impact on western financial markets Oct.98-Jul.99. Duration of bear market 5 to 7 years, likely size of correction from indices highs 60 to 80%.
2 ) Minimum commitment is $100 billion from IMF ( $18 billion from U.S. ) time frame start of negative impact on western financial markets Jun.98-Dec.98. Duration of bear market 3 to 5 years. Likely size of correction from indices highs 35 to 60%.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:31 - ID#34849)
For you late arrivals today...check out for details. I found out about this earlier in the week!

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:32 - ID#187218)
Careful, man,,,,,,,,, each time I've raised the question of overblown prediction and gloom-n-doom contractors regarding Y2K the folks in the business start posting URLs that explain their positions. I've long documented specific events that defends my position and they have always defended their position successfully. The bootom line is let's wait till the fat lady sings and then the facts will be known. My prediction: minor problems with only a few major ones. Howver, whatever normally occurs during a statistical averaged period will be blamed on Y2K and "see-I-told-ya-so" 'a posteriori' theoretical challenges.

Most of the 'big guys' got it covered. You guys working in the business --- please don't start with the URLs. I know U guys are working hard at the current problem,,,, BUT,,,, my confidence in U guys is tremendous and I know it will be MOSTLY resolved in time,,,,,

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:33 - ID#411112)
6pak,right on brother,if he GDP (general dumb public) are outraged over the power of a grand jury

aka Ken Starr,wait till they find out about FRB

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:34 - ID#187218)
BTW: This Gary North guy is apparently their mentor and spiritual guidance counselor, sage, 'keeper-of-the-truth', overall promoter ,,,,,,

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:36 - ID#348129)
@NICK - Aussiland
"Three years of production now sold forward." How in the world will short sellers cover when so much non-existent Gold is already spoken for?
Every new tidbit of information I read in this super secretive business
just cements my belief that when it finally cracks, the Gold market will soar as very few can now imagine.
ANOTHER's contention that the paper Gold business will shut down
is looking more and more believable.
The shorts will be eating and chocking on ANOTHER'S words............

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:41 - ID#20748)
now under new ownership and known as CNBC Europe and CNBC Asia. Neither of them works. If you know of another site would you please post.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:41 - ID#187218)
Caught your URL this morning and thinking of taking it! You are new to this forum ( at least posting ) . Are U aware of the rules against promoting without submitting a cheque a Bart,,,, this is a mortal sin. Are financially gaining from your numerous posting of the conference OR are U one of us ????


(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:43 - ID#187218)
HM Covered Calls
Thinking on writing a bunch of contracts,,,, anyone have good history on volume / options ?????

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:48 - ID#398105)
MoReGoLD............what if..........................

Given a hypothetical situation, what if the CB sold ALL or a large part of their gold. What would happen?

One scenario, is that the Arab-Muslim/Asian/Indian/Russian world would but it ALL.

The western CB's would then the hold US Dollars, and an awful lot of inherent debt. OIL would then only accept US dollars ?

I for one cannot see this happening. In may humble opinion, the gold futures deruvatives market , like the Asian currency crisis, is yet but another way of gaining more control and cornering a market.

The old saying - "you have got to be in it, to win it". If you are not part of the "club", you cannot win.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:48 - ID#222231)
It won'nt be the first time I've had my posterior reamed out on this forum, and I'm sure not the last. And awayyyyyy to plug up the hole!

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:49 - ID#398105)

but it ALL === buy it all

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:50 - ID#393224)
Where are those %*#+^*% parachutes??
I, for one, do not plan on being in a 747 at 30 000 feet when 1-1-2000 clicks over!! I can hear the black box recorder now ( invented by an Aussie BTW ) --"Damn!! Everything has just shut down. Where is my parachute?"

I will have a minimal amount of money in any bank. I will have sold most, if not all, of my shares. I will not be depending on credit cards, public transport timetables, my internet provider or any other public source of information. I always have adequate supplies of everything required to sustain life and will be fully prepared for whatever may come.

I will be extremely pleased if 2000 passes without major glitches and mankind's genius prevails over this particular adversity. I will then re-deposit my 'real' money into the system and buy up industrial shares at 10-20% of current prices. In my dreams?? Time will tell.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:50 - ID#426220)

MoReGoLd ( @Here's the full story --------- Mulroney, Crow lobby for Gold )

REF: "Mulroney, Crow lobby for gold

Hired by World Gold Council members, they urge central
bankers to hang onto holdings, help prop up weak prices"

We applaud and celebrate the World Gold Council's action, HOWEVER, we cannot help but ask: "WHAT TOOK THEM SO DAMN LONG TO MAKE THE

Respectfully, vronsky

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:54 - ID#284255)
Pete - Year2000 - Wait and see.
I think, that if Clinton and Blair have pushed the Y2K problem into the next G8 meeting, when all these financial dramas are happening, that it shows the level of concern held by the world leaders as to what may be coming soon.

I read lots of articles relating to Y2K and find them alarming.
Some of the ones posted here recently have been quite enlightening.
To say that there is a lot of hype about the subject makes me think of denial.
Go and read up on the subject and try to read between the lines.
Potentially it could become quite a nightmare.

Auckland, NZ has just had a little hickup over power supplies.
Sort of like a little demo to show the rest of the world how much we rely on computers, electricity and the many systems which we rely on.

I guess news is only news till it effects us personally.

The real truth on how Y2K will effect us will only be realised after the date changeover.
And I don't intend to fly, be in a lift, or have my money in any old bank when the day rolls by.
And I doubt that I will be logging onto Kitco to find out what the POG is doing.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:55 - ID#17796)
The education has been exceeded only by my conviction to act and enter the gold market with options; mining shares; future contracts; and, not the least, physical. Held my first coins Friday- what a thrill!! Still believe gold is very short, it's a guess or a gut feeling but got to go with what I believe-right or wrong. Tom

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:56 - ID#222231)
A paycheck!

(Sun Mar 01 1998 19:59 - ID#222231)
Descretion is the better part of valor. I think?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:03 - ID#187218)
It's interesting how one relies on information from the G8, Clinton, and Blair when it defends their position, BUT, on others they are part of a government conspiracy and coverup over fiat and keeping the POG down. Do U really believe that these guys are honest enough and knowledgeable enough to understand the complexities ??? They push their agenda and what agenda 'their advisors' push for and have sold them.

Remember the cold war ? Of course, military contracts loved it. Does that mean the problem did NOT exist --- of course not, BUT there was some self interest and self promoting to get funding. I've stated numerous times on this forum about the REAL problem and how it is being resolved. I've also discussed my background to show that I am no novice in this area. In addition, I've pointed out specific contraditions in articles, books ( Yourdon ) , and URLs that ( when drawn toward their logical conclusion ) do not stand the test of scrutiny.

AGAIN I STATE: This Y2K thing is real, BUT, overblown. The consultants WILL resolve the issue with only minor fallout. ALSO: Lotsa' money will be made in the interim until AFTER 2000.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:03 - ID#206358)
Read from scmpost:Monday March 2 1998

IMF failing to ease
pain, says Suharto

REUTERS in Jakarta
President Suharto says the country's economic
lifeline is being compromised by financial crisis and
that reforms prescribed by the International
Monetary Fund have not eased the economic pain.

The former general who has ruled Indonesia for
three decades kept financial markets guessing in
delivering his accountability speech at the end of his
sixth five-year term as president, by saying he had
not ruled out introducing a currency-board system.

Mr Suharto was clear, however, in a 70-minute
speech broadcast to the nation, that he was
committed to sweeping IMF reforms agreed in
January. His remarks come the day before US
President Bill Clinton's special envoy Walter
Mondale arrives in Jakarta to urge compliance with
the US$40 billion pact.

"I have started, and will continue, to implement the
economic and financial reforms and restructuring
programmes, which have the support of the IMF,"
Mr Suharto said.

"However, there are no signs of improvement yet.
On the contrary, the people's life is becoming more

"The financial crisis . . . became eventually more
serious, more widespread and more lasting than
anyone could have imagined. Our economic lifeline
[has] begun to be compromised.

"This is the reason why I have asked the IMF and
other heads of government to assist us to find a
more appropriate alternative," Mr Suharto said. "I
refer to the more appropriate concept as

Mr Suharto's newly appointed economic adviser,
Steve Hanke, said on Saturday he and the
president had agreed on the new plan, a more
broad-based programme to stabilise the rupiah.

It would include large-scale privatisation of
state-owned companies, a bankruptcy code,
reduction and rescheduling of external debt and the
adoption of a currency-board system to fix the
rupiah to a single rate.

"The IMF plan in its current form is fatally flawed
because it is too small, too slow, and it fails to
constructively address the whole problem of
stabilising the rupiah," Mr Hanke said.

"We want to emphasise that there is nothing in this
plan that contradicts the IMF. It's just a bigger plan,
a bolder plan and one that has a central component
to the stabilisation of the rupiah."

Mr Hanke said it was a "complete and
comprehensive plan".

"We feel that the current IMF plan had failed,
because it is trying to put a bandage on a huge open
wound. What we are trying to do is to stitch the
whole wound together with appropriate surgery and

A World Bank representative said the Indonesian
leader was walking a line between the demands of
his crisis-hit country and the international

Dennis de Tray, the World Bank's chief
representative in Jakarta, said after the speech:
"The president said exactly what the president
believes, which is he wants to implement the IMF
programme and implement it fully and strongly.

"He also wants to seek any other tools that are
acceptable to the IMF and the international
community to speed up the stabilisation of the
rupiah. That is the right message and that is the
message he gave people," Mr de Tray said.

Mr Suharto, who will be named for a seventh
five-year term as president by the assembly this
month, said he was still considering implementing a
currency-board system to fix the rupiah to a single

The IMF and Western governments have criticised
the proposal as inappropriate, saying that
Indonesia's weak banking system and limited
foreign exchange reserves would lead to an attack
on the peg that would be difficult to withstand.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:06 - ID#287277)
Carl--I like the KISS method--
If one takes the USD price of oil, e.g., and multiples that by Units/XDR, [15*1.3450=20.18] one gets a respectable price in a respectable currency ( 0.0045905 Xau/unit, which is the highest with the exception of the CYPRUS POUND--at 0.0064105--why is it so HIGH I wonder ? )

Might we use something comparatively simple ( ? ) like the above. I suggest that because we do not even have--to my mind--a REAL price for gold! The XDR has more gold in it than anything other than Cyprus pound, so ...

I also have ( and have had for some time ) indications that the Merchant Princes--the modern Medici [Davos] crowd, have been using the XDR in cross-nationals trade, first with product, lately with actual currency flow. This allows them to do business without the derivative burden. Hence, I believe there is sufficient precedent for this approach. What do you think?

Oh shoot--lets use the Cyprus pound {:- ) ) ) )

QUESTION: Why is the Cyprus Pound so rich in gold? 0.0064105 !!!

Nick@C.I.rather.liked.that.part.too Re:CB's--do we have enough elephants to do the job? {:- )

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:06 - ID#341189)
"Brady Bonds" for Asia proposal - Rubin Bonds?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:07 - ID#222231)
Give em HELL.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:10 - ID#284255)
Where did you read that article?
Could you please provide an URL to access the info you posted.
Re: GST Global Market Update

I would like to read more on this.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:11 - ID#398105)
chas ( still not 100%, away alot, try today here)

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:12 - ID#348129)
Yes, it's not a nanosecond too soon!!! The WGC is spending $3 million on this campagn. I have always believed that if the mining industry had some balls, and a little less debt, they could threaten to shut down all production and put the entire Gold market around the world in turmoil.
This shorters leasing game would be over in a flash.

The Hatt
(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:20 - ID#294232)
Gold holding well at $299.00!!!!!!
Expect that we will breakthrough the $300.00 mark in Asia tonight which could put some interesting pressure on new york in the morning. we must remember that gold over three hundred has implications!

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:20 - ID#32078)
Reamer or Reamee
PETE... Hang in there pard, you aren't the only reamee here.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:21 - ID#258129)
Signing off
All: Thanks for fruitful discussion my 17:20

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:23 - ID#29082)
Y2K problem and due dilligence
Careful inspection of a company, prior to investing, should include a phone call or letter asking for a written statement of preparedness with respect to the y2k problem. Those of you who do mergers and acquistions should add this item to your due diligence when considering purchasing a company. My company requires a written statement from every software vendor with whom we do business. They will say one thing on the phone but be very much less enthusiastic on paper. In addition to these letters on file, every IT system we own will be fully y2k compliant well before the big event. I am involved in testing and we are well along in pounding software and hardware. Work, work, work....

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:25 - ID#348129)
@Aye Haggis
I think some CB's have/will sell all their Gold, but the majority will end up holding most of their Gold. These countries will remain with the strongest currencies.
Imagine if as you say all CB's did sell their Gold:

Asia/Middle East/India ===== All Gold and Oil
West =================== US dollars/Treasuries/Debt/Paper

Any contest?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:27 - ID#398105)
"I only kissed her your Honour".......question is where ???

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:27 - ID#348129)
@OH Yes, Almost forgot, **** Go Gold ****

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:27 - ID#187218)
I curious what language is used in the contracts. What are the specific tangible violations and how long of a period do the contracts allow befor violations are detected and formally addressed ?

If a package/unit/item is purchased and the contracting agent has a working 'black box' and said to be fully ( Y2K ) compliant, what criterion can the contract use to litigate said contract violations a year down stream ?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:29 - ID#398105)
"We (the USA) only want your oil, gas and gold"............

Lan Man
(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:30 - ID#320108)
@Ancient Coin Talk
Thought I might add my 2cents worth.

Medieval Persia - 1059 to 198 A.D. Ghaznavid Gold Dinars ( very fine to extra fine - last quote I saw was for $89.95 ea )

I like the Justinian I 527 to 565A.D. Byzantine Gold Solidus myself although the Tiberius II Constantine and the Maurice Tiberius and Phocas are wonderful coins as well.

In silver the Alexander the Great 336 to 323B.C. Greek Silver Tetradrachms is a coin to behold! Then there are the Roman Silver Denarius and the Silver Parthian Drachm as well as the Greek Silver Staters and the rare Armenian Silver Double Trams too. I guess we can't forget the "Thirty Pieces of Silver" ( as ref. in the bible that were paid to Judas for his betrayal ) - the 126B.C to 70 A.D. Shekel of Tyre. I would probably stay away from that one though : )

And for the hard pressed there are always the Widow's Mites...

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:31 - ID#398105)
The French always did appreciate "fine" things.............

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:31 - ID#32078)
Last week's results
The top ten gold funds for last week were:

% gain

RYPMX Rydex Prec Metals . 6.3

MNTGX Monterey OCM Gold . 4.0

BGEIX Amer Cent Global Gold. 3.8

USAGX USAA Gold . 3.8

PIGDX Pioneer Gold A . 3.7

GRFRX Van Eck Gold / Res A . 3.5

EVNRX EV Marathon Dev Res . 3.3

ASA ASA Ltd . 3.3

METBX Dean Witter Prec Mtls. 3.2

FKRCX Franklin Gold I . 3.1

Just wait for this week.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:31 - ID#340459)
I think March will be profitable fpr all of us, Ameen.
Go Gold Go..

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:34 - ID#398105) (USA) will have your very own market...............

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:35 - ID#284255)
Could it happen to me?
Guess we'll have to wait a year to see how real Y2K is.
Neither you or I really have a clue as to what is going to happen.
And that probably applies to 99.9999% of people.

But I know that modern society places huge reliance upon the systems already in place.

Ed Meagher is a good read:

Perhaps the most interesting news Jim had for us was the remarks made by Dr. Edward Yardeni, chief economist at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell. Jim reported that Dr. Yardeni told the group that unless something very dramatic happened to change his mind, he would announce in March that he was increasing his highly respected economic forecast of a "nasty recession" from a 40% chance to a 60% chance in 1999.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:35 - ID#341189)
OK. I'm being dense. The SDR price of oil would be the dollar price of oil times the dollar-SDR cross rate ( 1.35 Fri. ) . Help me from there.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:36 - ID#222231)
Here it is. I've had this junk mail sitting on my desk for about a week, and finally decided to read it. It goes as follows:






IN 1999


Everything you own is at stake. But there are steps you can take now that will give you a head start on this crises-----INSIDE , A 24 page report that proves, point by point, that this is no chicken little fantasy but a real terrifying reality.

Gary North, Ph.D ( a little education is a dangerous thing. )

He will set you free for a two yr subscription for JUST $225.00 ( American that is. ) or JUST $129.00/yr. WOW, What a bargain!

Sharefin, you can send a check to "REMNANT REVIEW, 1217 St. Paul St, Baltimore, MD 21202. Or you can save the money, and when, if ever we meet personally, we can sit at the local pub and have +/- 70 beers between us, or you can spit in my eye!

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:43 - ID#57232)
Brady bond lookalikes for SEAsia
Carl: This is precisely what we need to be on the lookout for -- bailout of SEAsia with 'Brady bonds' backed by US securities. This time it could be $1 trillion US -- and just how much of the Brady bonds have been paid back? How about Germany, France, Switzerland, England, Japan, etc.? Or just US?

And where would these bonds show up? In our national debt, I would guess.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:43 - ID#398105)
AND NOW.............for something completely different...........

Something that you YANKS lack..........culture...........

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:43 - ID#284255)
Go Gold
That's like paying $30 for ANOTHER's thoughts.
Lots of people like scamming - not me.

Surfing's free

& I'll take the beer and chips, and your company, thanks.

Industry Gridlock - electricity related

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:44 - ID#29082)
I have seen a couple of the letters which came back from vendors to our IS dept. and they don't cover anything other than stating that our "current version" is/is not Y2K compliant. Our legal department may be pursuing a more detailed inquiry, but I don't know. Some vendors have immediately tried to sell us an upgrade and I look for Y2K readiness to be increasingly used as a sales tool. I have been assigned to test hardware and some packaged software ( along with everything else I do ) and I can vouch for Compaq's hardware, both new servers and desktop computers. We use many off the shelf packages and one proprietary ( expensive ) software package which is being rewritten and tested and won't be certified until fall sometime. ROR or Tortfeasor could address your legal questions much better than I, but they are good questions. I suspect that there will be as many answers as there are legal departments!

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:44 - ID#174103)
Price of oil and price of US bonds
Does anyone here know if the declining price of oil might have an effect on the amount of cash oil states put into US bonds? I was looking for an accounting of how much US paper is held by the oil producing nations, but couldn't come up with much. It would seem that the oil to dollar to T-bill recycling might be an important factor in the status of the US dollar, much as Asian countries recycle export profits back into T-bills. This relates somewhat to the price of gold, since a strong dollar induces a magical belief in the worth of all paper currencies, which seems to be inversely related to the price of PM's.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:53 - ID#57232)
Still no Currency board - Just talk
Jin -- Thanks for your post to us. Steve Hanke looks like an excellent choice to help out, but I suspect that the 'powers that be' want to do it their way, or not at all. Unfortunately, while the politicians negotiate, the Indonesian people must wait. Not good.

Any news about China? Donald's posts today suggest that China will devalue very, very soon. Bad news, especially for Japan.

Take care -- hope all it well. By the way I'm convinced that the same financial 'flu' that hit SEAsia will eventually come to the US, though it may take several years to do do. The biggest problem is uncontrolled debt -- and the rest of the world has done nothing to fix it.

I think SEAsia will be the first to have a currency firmly backed by gold, and much stricter rules of credit.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:53 - ID#342282)
Preacher re T/A
That Greek arhur ritis has me down togay. Will post to you later. Thanx for patience

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:53 - ID#347457)
Y2K - Oversimplification from all sides!
I am too tired to argue this issue on this forum. Ive been in it from the beginning and I see oversimplification from all sides. Ill be worse than "non-believers" think, but not as bad as some people paint it.

Yes, most of the businesses will be "kinda" ready, however, that does not mean they wont have a problem.

E.g., even if your bank is OK, your payment may not be processed correctly by some non-compliant entity and you may start receiving non-payment notices generated by dumb, non-compliant computer.

Even if your bank is not compliant, that does not mean that itll wipe out your balance to zero.

You most likely will still be logging to Kitco,

For you guys, who plan to convert all your paper money to gold, 7-11 wont take it when you go to buy your six-pack.

Money will be made and money will be lost. Just like with bulls and bears in market.

I work exclusively on Y2K issue, I can say that I am pretty well known in Y2K area, however, I am not making more money that I was making before, however, I have to work longer hours that before.

For whatever its worth, for you people doing business with Fidelity, they finished their Y2K renovations, and are considered to be compliant.

Don't bother to offer solutions like lets convert everything 1900, it just shows missunderstanding of the issue ( though in a bit different and more complex form this "time travel" approach is used as one of the technical solutions. )

Away, getting ready for tomorrow, helping the big boys on Hill to be Y2K compliant.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 20:55 - ID#348129)
@Y2K - Here is a plethora of links to recent stories. Y2K will be a major focus of the media in 1998
USA Today: Greenspan warns of year 2000 glitch
American Banker: Greenspan Spells Out His Worries to Senate Panel
Radio Free Europe: World: Millennium 'Bomb' Threatens Global Economy
Canberra Times: Joint millenium bug effort to be based in Canberra
Australian Financial: Unisys, Execom to set up Y2000 clinic in Canberra
Computerworld: Gartner says health care industry lags on Y2K
Financial Times: Scale of Y2k problem is 'severely under-estimated' ( registration )
The Institute: The Y2K date problem: A bad moon rising Bill for banker Y2K school,4,19465,00.html
UPI: EC acts on 2000 computer bug
The Ottawa Citizen: Region making headway in killing millennium bugs
LA Times: 21st Century May Not Compute, Report Warns Simi Valley Council
Wall Street Journal: State May Need to Reboot Plan for Computers ( registration )
Reuters: House passes bill adding Year 2000 oversight power
The Providence Journal-Bulletin: Millenium's already hitting town - in wallet
The Glenwood Post: Y2K Glitch leaves local businesses in search of fix
Government Computer News: OMB moves up 2000 deadline
Crain's Cleveland Business: Companies Ring Up Year 2000 Bills
Computerweekly: Ace team jets to New York
The Institute: Fixing potholes on the road to Millennium
IEEE Spectrum: 1998--a year of resource conflicts and personnel shortages

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:01 - ID#341189)
JTF, Think of the possibilities!
Long Brazil Brady bonds and short Asian Brady = A Rubin Sandwich

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:01 - ID#370249)
Heard on the Street....Gold....US$....Silver...Iraq Oil....

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:03 - ID#255190)

Here are two aspects of the problem which are generally not well understood by non-technical types ( most of us excluding programmers ) . First is the idea that programs operate, at least in older code, sequentially. There are many paths within programs which eventually yeild some predictable output. Each line MUST work perfectly or it ALL fails. Like the proverbial chain with the weak link. This is also true for large systems which are built from 100's and 1000's of individual program modules. They all have to work and work perfectly or the system either yields inaccurate results or simply 'crashes'.

The data which feeds these systems must conform to specific formats which include the expectation that at certain times a particular code means a year but in the very next instant it indicates a id# or some other item. If these 'streams' do not conform to these rigid formats than the programs begin to operate perfectly using totally inaccurate data. For example. if the first two digits in a record were to represent a year and the third and forth a month, then if a 4 digit year were to be presented to that input stream your program would think that the last two digits of the year were actually the month.

In todays system there are many 'intersystem' systems. These 'intersystems' are transorganizational: interbanking, interscheduling, interorder/fulfillment. Unless these intersystems are fix simulaneously and in unison with perfect coordination between the respective organizations then these inter-systems will fail perfectly.

If you 'get' Dilbert at all you will realize just how incredible it would be for even one large organization to effect a perfect remediation of its systems let alone all the 'intersystems' it associates with. Most people I know who work in Information Services departments express a great deal of disenchantment with their management. This reflects on Y2K in that these are the same people mismanaging Y2K efforts.

The USA and England probably have the best professional talent available in the world today. There are not enough people here even at that. The rest of the world is certainly so far behind that the word cataclysm is not to strong a word to consider using.

Besides what do you expect IT managers to say, "We are unable to fix these systems on time." or "We are in control, no problem."?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:04 - ID#370249)
@ SE Asia to issue "brady" Bonds guaranteed by Taiwan, Japan? etc......

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:04 - ID#255190)
Preparing for Y2K

2000 boxes of Kraft dinner!

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:05 - ID#187218)
@Y2K URLs are a'plenty,,,,, as predicted,,,,,
SPEED: Thanx for your post. AS I've stated numerous times in the past,,,, for your personal PC environment,,,,,, tomaoorow morning, wake and set clock to 30 Dec 1999 and allow your PC and software packages to soak for a few days and watch what happens. Thi cannot be done on larger networks ( since users may be affected ) BUT from a personal stand-point TRY IT OUT.

PETE: I told ya the posts would be coming,,,,,, hmmmmmmmmmmmm.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:08 - ID#57232)
Parachutes for all Passengers on Dec 31,1999
Nick@C: I agree with you that Y2k is no trivial matter -- software changes alone are not sufficient. There must be hundreds of thousands of dedicated ( embedded ) computer chips with ROM memories burned in -- inside many types of complex electrical/electronic equipment. Most of these only have 24hour clocks to operate - but a few ( 1% - thousands? ) need to know the day of the week or month, so they must have a calender - type clock.
These must be replaced before y2k, and I bet the users of these chips do not know how many they have in operation!
I for one will not be taking any plane trips without a parachute near y2k- probably won't be able to get aboard on because the ticket system will be down.
And --wrt to the markets/financial systems, I would guess that a 5% failure rate would bring everything down. Foreign markets would be in much worse shape. At the very least, I will get paper copies of all of my asset reports -- already did that with Social Security. Now -- I don't really care if the IRS loses all of my records!

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:09 - ID#187218)
Your simplistic explaination on over-simplification has been duly noted here NOW and BEFORE. You make a good points and are a voice of sanity in this Y2K stuff. Thanx!

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:09 - ID#370249)
@ Japan ruling LDP urges use of Postal and Insurance Funds to prop up market...

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:15 - ID#187218)
Allen @21:03,,,, good post
You state your position well. I understand these issues as you have presented. Where I disagree with some Y2K "experts" is there analysis on the "devastation", such as, deaths, banking crises, loss of banking abilities ( how long? ) , etc. There WILL BE some inconveniences but the actual fallout will not be along the same lines as the 1987 Market Crash....

Thanx for a good post,,,,,,

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:15 - ID#222231)
WOW, what a gratifying thought. The IRS? The Y ME 2 would be worth all the trouble!

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:21 - ID#252127)
6pac: your 18:26 says it well.


(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:24 - ID#187218)
Your IEEE URL read "... The year 1998 will catapult the software industry to international prominence, as all major journals and even television news shows begin to focus on the dire situation... "

"International prominence" - translated,,,, once in a generation prestige.
"dire situtation"--- his article does not specify his reason for this position.

Knowing the professionals of IEEE and there contributions to the advancement of technology I find this article rather "bush-league" and wonder why it is in a professional journal.

BTW: I am past Vice-Chairman and Chairman of IEEE.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:26 - ID#20748)
Japan pushes fixed exchange rates

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:29 - ID#253335)
John Disney


You want something negative. OKAY. Deeps cost

are still pretty high ... maybe 320 average. That

bothers me the most. I have some. But I pick up

the preferred shares whenever some appear on the

local market ( 15-20% yield ) . The GOOD thing

about Deeps is a big resource base and FEW shares.

But I prefer harmony as it has lower costs

.. 280/300 avg and maybe 3 times the resource

base for only maybe 20% more shares. I also

like Rangold for roughly similar reasons.

However, Deeps was the first of these to

show life on a technical basis and may be the

early mover. But they are ALL good . . . Thanks!

Not sure what to make of gold at the present time; especially if there is any type of correction.

Check it out!


(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:30 - ID#228128)
I have a theory that the recent congressional hearings on the excesses of the IRS and the need to reform the IRS are related to the Y2K bug. They know now that the IRS will not be able to collect taxes in 2000. Congress is posturing to make themselves look good because they know already that they will have to go to a federal sales tax in order to collect taxes at all. They will be falling all over themselves to show the public how they have the average Joe's best interests at heart and will prove it by getting rid of the unfair tax system. If they don't screw this up they may actually do something useful for a change.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:33 - ID#342282)
Haggis re Malt +
Now I know how sour mash got it's start. Corn instead of barley. In the right hands the product is the best sipping liquor known to man in my opinion. No sugar added!! Have you had a chance to get a figure on nuggets and tract we discussed? Good luck on your activities. Thanx

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:38 - ID#252127)
Vronsky @18:50

Does that mean that the elistist few have finally accumulated enough gold to released their trusted cadre to the WGC to talk the metal up?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:40 - ID#270227)
NJ.....Thanks for the information. It looks like one Bretton Woods was not enough
One would think that the current monetary system and moving away from the gold standard would wise people up. No such luck !!!!!
Lest we forget:
-Alan Greenspan wrote in 1966, long before
he became head of the US Federal Reserve:

"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the 'hidden confiscation' of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard."
Also BTW: Property rights is the "key" concept.
Regards to all

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:43 - ID#252127)
Vronsky @18:50

Does that mean that the elistist few have finally
accumulated enough gold to release their trusted
cadre to the WGC and talk the metal up?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:47 - ID#398105)

nuggets you can buy at will. Price depends on what you buy.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:52 - ID#28594)
Carl--I should be so "dense" {:-))

My reasoning ( ? ) : ( 1 ) The two most manipulated currencies, adjusted by esoteric formulae behind the scenes. ( 2 ) Everything IS nominally priced in USD--so a double-scoop, so to speak, is permissible. ( 3 ) I jiggled everything ( everything else that is ) around to get a PRICE of around $20--which is, I understand, an acceptable price to the Arab world. In other words--I said, OK, they have to have a price that allows the market to function...well say $20 is fair...
That this is unorthodox, I wont argue! {:- ) The thing that worked most efficiently and quickly is the stupid little $*Units/SDR.... If the price is right, and we track by consistent methods, are we ahead--by a small smidgen?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:53 - ID#187218)
Think of this: If AG were to hold a press conference tomorrow and espouse those elements that he had state in 1966 were to be the direction the U.S. would entail in the future.

"I am announcing that I will meet with the President of the United States, Bill Clinton, and Treasury Robert Rubin in a strategy session to implement a gradual increase in the gold backing of the current Federal Reserve Notes. In addition, I plan to argue that the Federal Reserve System is no longer needed in this environment of a strong U.S. dollar and the Treasury should be the source of all fiat currency until such time that we have 100% gold backing. I'd prefer not to telgraph what specifics I plan to discuss with Messrs. Clinton and Rubin but my plan will achieve 100% gold backing in a single generation. It is time that the United States takes leadership in the financial global network of the derivative legerdemain. I know that this is not an easy position from a political standpoint but Mr. Clinton is one of those politicains that comes along once in a lifetime and I believe that we can relieve the burden of our children and grandchildren by immediately taking action.

I hereby ask that ALL Federal Reserve Board members submit their formal resignation within 2 weeks and ask Mr. Clinton to issue an Executive Order allowing the Treasury of the United States to handle existing financial matters currently handled by the Federal Reserve Board. I also ask that the Executive Order allow for new hiring of financial experts with backgrounds in precious metals be aside the duties of forming a transition team to be in place within 2 weeks. I will hold an additional press conference after I have met with Messrs. Clinton and Rubin. Thank you."

(Sun Mar 01 1998 21:59 - ID#401460)

Yes, you are right but they will screw it up just like everything else they do.


(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:01 - ID#252127)
WORLD POPULATION IN 1994, per Us Census Bureau estimate

The boys in DC figure 5.6 billion people; the CB's reputably hold 1.1 billion gold oz.
Figuring 20% of the world population can afford $300 to $600 bucks an ounce and are smart enough to know its value we can expect the CB's to sell out in a week. Har har!
Now all ( some ) CB's have to do is stand behind their words.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:02 - ID#347447)
PANDA: The game show you referred to a while ago is called "Debt." Host Wink Martindale is a slick veteran game show host, and has never been better. All the contestants are thirty-something generally, and the show is pure camp and really very much fun. Actually the questions are excellent tests of your "mass culture" smarts. Save the head-shaking in astonishment for the debt ridden nations of the world. "Debt" may be a symptom, but it ain't the disease. Try to catch the show. I watch it most nites as I sip the evening Martini and cook for the wife. But then, you know me...not very discriminating what I watch or who I hang out with.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:03 - ID#289349)
As a mainframe COBOL programmer, I have watched salaries skyrocket this last year. I now see predictions that by this time next year, programmers will be making 100$ per hour. Surely it's "not fair" that we programmers should profit from the mistakes we made over the last 20-30 years. What is needed is a "windfall profits" tax on programmers, where the government simply confiscates 100% of income exceeding some government salary "cap" . Think it won't happen? I predict you'll see it proposed in congress within the next 6 months.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:04 - ID#342282)
I will get back to you re weights and quantity. Quote in A$ or Us$. If "dust" is available, i may have a market for it. Thanx

(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:05 - ID#222231)
What a grand idea. It would be the honorable thing for him to do, but I believe he would be wearing concrete shoes within 24 hrs.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:06 - ID#228128)
note from Frank Veneroso
I received this via e-mail. I can't verify its authenticity but it looks legit and though you all might be interested in it.

Once Again, the Asian Currency Crisis and Gold
How the Asian Currency Crisis Has Depressed the Gold Price
The Asian currency crisis has had a multifaceted negative impact on gold demand in the emerging Far East. ( These dynamics are described in greater detail in our last monthly report on this subject, The Asian Currency Crisis and Gold Demand ) .
) Deep devaluations of the Asian currencies has raised the domestic real price of gold in these economies. This depresses demand for gold in ounces since domestic incomes can afford to purchase fewer ounces. This is the basis for gold's long run price elasticity of demand.
) In addition to this long run price elasticity of demand, there is an additional short run but transitory price elasticity. In effect, when faced with a large increase in the real gold price, households and commercials in these economies suffer a "sticker shock" abatement in demand which persists for perhaps one or several quarters.
) These short and long run price elasticities cause normal positive end use demand growth to turn sharply negative. Producers and distributors of gold products tend to want to hold a constant volume of gold and gold product inventories relative to sales. In the gold industry such inventories are unusually high. The swing in end use gold demand growth from positive to deeply negative causes significant positive inventory demands to be replaced by large scale commercial inventory dishoarding.
) Lastly, when the real price of gold rises amidst an economic and financial crisis, some holders of gold in Far East Asian countries dishoard their gold .
hen first confronted by the Far East Asian currency crisis, we looked to prior crises in Turkey and Mexico for indications of the likely impact of the Asian crisis on gold demand. These precedents suggested that demand in the region might fall by 30% to 50% from prior year levels. This suggested that the Asian currency crisis would depress global gold demand by 200 tonnes or less at an annual rate. It soon became clear that this crisis was more severe than the Mexican and Turkish crises and was having a more severe impact on gold demand. In particular, special programs to collect gold from domestic households to bolster national foreign exchange reserves were causing an especially high rate of investor dishoarding. In our most recent monthly report on this topic we tried to estimate all of the above four impacts of the Asian currency crisis and concluded that the crises in Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand had depressed private gold demand ( including dishoarding ) by perhaps 400 tonnes at an annual rate by late l997. In addition, we believe it probably has led to liquidation of official gold exchange reserves in some of these countries.
Dishoarding Exceeds Most Expectations
SEOUL, Feb. 24 ( reuters ) - A trader with Daewoo said it had sold 117 tonnes of gold by last Saturday. Gold exports by Daewooo will continue until mid-March, he said.
During the last week or so, the Koreans announced that they have collected 222.8 tonnes of gold from residents since mid January and have sold 180.8 tonnes. They continue to collect gold and, so far, the rate of collection has not diminished. The gold bears have now shifted their focus from endless central bank selling to endless Korean dishoarding. Typically, with such campaigns, those most inclined to participate do early on; therefore, we should expect a significant tailing off of this flow in coming months. Also, this campaign has been conducted in phases. The current campaign ended on February 24th. There is now a new extension into March. However, at some point this campaign is likely to cease. There is a hint of this in a statement by a trader with Daewoo.
he Korean central bank has made repeated statements that it would hold some of the gold collected from households, but so far the Koreans appear to be selling this dishoarded gold on the international market as fast as they collect it. They seem to want to show higher export earnings as well as their higher foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, we should expect most of the gold collected from Korean households to be sold in the international market.
In any case, this program has resulted in Korean dishoarding at a rate in excess of 100 tonnes a month or 1200 tonnes at an annual rate since the beginning of the year. It appears that 50 tonnes may have been sold last week alone. We expect this very large supply shock to the gold market may diminish in March and should certainly diminish in coming months.
Last week we also received a report from the World Gold Council that there has been cumulative dishoarding in Indonesia of 60 tonnes in recent months, with dishoarding of 20 tonnes in January alone. This is less than the dishoarding out of Korea, but it is still substantial. The World Gold Council reported significant dishoarding in Thailand in the third quarter. If we look at the reported cumulative dishoarding in the region over the last six months or so, we can easily see dishoarding of well in excess of 300 tonnes, most of which has been sold into the international market in the last two months.
Not only has the rate of dishoarding in the region been especially intense; end use demand probably has been depressed by more than the usual determinants of demand ( which we described earlier ) would indicate. There are reports that end use demand in Korea has fallen to practically zero, as the campaign to collect gold from households has deterred any fresh new purchases. Similar public campaigns to mobilize gold from households are being conducted in Malaysia and Thailand. The amounts being mobilized in this fashion do not appear to be significant, but such appeals to nationalist sentiment do appear to be inducing consumers to refrain from purchases of luxury imported goods and this may include gold adornment jewelry. It is our guess that end use demands for gold in Far East Asia have been depressed by the current crisis to an unusual degree. These five countries consumed roughly 400 tonnes of gold in 1996 and would be consuming roughly 500 tonnes annually at $300 dollar gold had the Asian currency crisis not occurred. We would not be surprised if end use demands have fallen to perhaps a 200 tonne annual rate. Such a large decline in end use demand has caused commercials, who usually add to their inventories when sales are rising, to dishoard inventory as sales fall. The credit crises in these countries has intensified this commercial dishoarding.
As we discuss in chapters one and four of our forthcoming Gold Book Annual ( now at the printers ) , inventories of gold at fabricators, distributors and retailers are extremely high---perhaps two times sales compared to 60% of sales for all manufactured goods in the US economy and much less for many commodities like oil. Fluctuations in inventory demands in the pipeline for fabricated goods are extremely significant in the gold market. It is difficult to quantify the commercial dishoarding that has occurred in Far East Asia, but it could easily have been 200 tonnes or more. We believe that most of this commercial dishoarding occurred in the second half of 1997 when across-the-board inventory liquidations turned current accounts in these countries from deficits to surpluses. The reported dishoarding of more than 300 tonnes we mentioned above is largely investor dishoarding, mostly from Korea. However, the reported alleged investor dishoarding for Thailand and Indonesia probably encompasses some commercial dishoarding as well. Therefore, there may be some double counting between these two estimates of investor and commercial dishoarding. Taking this into consideration, it is our guess that the decline in end use demands along with investor and commercial dishoarding has reduced net global gold demand by perhaps 600-700 tonnes since early July or more than 1000 tonnes at an annual rate. We calculate that this 1000 tonne plus rate of combined demand declines and dishoarding has depressed the gold price by almost 15%-20% or by perhaps more than $60 an ounce. To this we must add some additional pressure on the gold price stemming from distress sales of official gold by central banks in the region.
What should we conclude? The Asian currency crisis has had a larger negative impact on the gold price than is widely thought and central bank selling and producer and speculator short selling has been less of a depressant on the gold price than is commonly believed. The gold price was under pressure from official selling and producer and speculator short selling in the first half of 1997 and this depressed the gold price to $340. In July of last year the Asian currency crisis began in earnest. The gold price then fell to roughly the $320 level. Late in 1997, the Asian currency crisis spread to Korea and intensified in Indonesia. The gold price fell once again, this time to $300 and below. It is our guess that had this Asian crisis not erupted and widened, official sales, producer hedging, and speculator short sales may have depressed the gold price to the $340 level and no more. The dishoarding in January and February of this year has been so intense that it may have been the predominant depressant on the gold price in this period with little contribution from other sources taken on a net basis. Prior to the last several days, with a renewed onset of fund shorting, there has been some continued official sector selling in 1998 but it was offset by fund short covering and possibly by net producer buybacks ( e.g. TVX ) after intense producer hedging going into year end 1997 ( e.g. Great Central ) .
In any case, the dishoarding of gold by households and the sale of this gold in the international market should abate in coming months. The market's most notable and vocal bears expect continued dishoarding by households at the present rate for some time. We expect continued such sales in response to nationalist pleas, but it is likely that this program has mobilized the gold from holders most willing to sell in its first month or two and that this flow will now taper off. The Korean foreign exchange position has been improving; it is also possible that the Korean central bank will soon hold some of this gold rather than sell it, as they have indicated they might do. A significant abatement of the current rate of Korean sales of more than 100 tonnes a month will remove a great depressant on the gold price. Inventory liquidation by commercials in the region may persist for a while longer, but it too should abate in coming months. We are already hearing that imports of base metals into Korea and Thailand are resuming, indicating a possible end to inventory dishoarding of these metals. An end to commercial dishoarding of gold will remove another force that is depressing the gold price. The revival of end use jewelry demands in the region will await a recovery in incomes which we do not expect until late in the year. A full recovery of Far East Asia demands will not occur until next year, or later depending on the rate of recovery of the Far East Asian currencies.
Looking farther out, we expect most of these Asian currencies to recover fully in real terms. We also expect a resumption of rapid economic growth. This will occur because the trend rates of gain of productivity in tradeables in these countries will continue to far exceed trend productivity gains in the developed Western economies. The Far East will become once again an engine of rapid growth in the demand for gold. In fact, there may be a surprisingly strong recovery in such demands. Gold served well those households in the region who held it during the crisis. It also served well those governments whose populations had hoarded gold. It is not inconceivable that the Koreans will change their current policies which discourage gold purchases and put in their place policies which encourage households to import gold---a national asset---rather than Mercedes and Gucci handbags. 

Veneroso Associates:

(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:09 - ID#270235)
Durban Deep is the better buy.
Durban is the better buy precisely because it has higher operating costs.
It has more operating leverage. Of course this assumes we are entering
a period of sustained rising gold prices.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:10 - ID#30116)
Mike Sheller
:- ) )

(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:10 - ID#335190)
WetGold @ 21:53
Think of this: Rather then Mr. A.G. promoting such a plan, by the Governor of the Federal Reserve Board, to President Bill Clinton, and the USofA Treasury.

Why not such a plan being proposed by the United States Chamber of Commerce, and the National Association of Manufacturers to Mr. A.G., and asking Mr. A.G., to make the plan available to the President of the United States, on behalf of these USofA Organizations.

Just another take, on a complex matter eh!....Take Care.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:12 - ID#368244)
@ Wetgold

I bet old Alan would be pushing up daisies faster than you could say GOLD.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:12 - ID#30116)
Mike Sheller
Back to watching 'Brave Heart'...

(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:15 - ID#187218)
REMEMBER:,,,,, Kennedy asked the Treasury to start issuing PM backed currency,,,,,,, he dies,,,,,,, LBJ rescinds the order shortly after his death.,,,,,, I wonder why ?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:17 - ID#29082)
Uptrend continues
All four metals tracked here are up tonight. Japan and HK up also.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:17 - ID#187218)
@6pak,,,, good idea,,,,, that is, any idea to get this baby goin',,,,,

(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:18 - ID#187218)
Just got some last week,,,,, what analysis do you have for long/short term ???

(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:21 - ID#187218)
I would not go as far as saying it's "not fair". Technology has changed exponentially since those days. A true visionary would only have seen this situation since most of us "old-time" programmers thought that our "scripts" were only temporary.

Make the money and don't feel guilty about it, just keep the problem in perspective and don't overstate the gloom-n-doom death threats of which we continually hear.

As far as the government taking it,,,,,, that's another story for another post ,,,,,

(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:25 - ID#284255)
I think this is a joke, or is he the joke:
Inflation Calculator
I think this is a joke, or is he the joke:
Members of Congress, people of America, I banged her. Banged her like a cheap gong. Which is not news, folks, because Monica never played the flute solo in my libidinal orchestra. The only babes in D.C. I haven't tried to diddle are Hillary, Albright, and Shalala, mostly because they're evil and have legs that look like they came off a Bosendorfer16-foot concert grand.
Which isn't to say I don't appreciate Hillary. I do. If not for the ice-water coursing through her veins, I'd be pumping gas into farm equipment in Hope, Arkansas, and she'd be married to the President. So, let me set the record straight. I dodged the draft, hid FBI files, smoked dope, flipped Whitewater property, set up a new Korean wing in the White House, fired the travel staff, paid hush money to Webster, sold the Lincoln bedroom like an upscale Motel 6, and made pocket pinball the game of choice in the Oval Office. Got it? Good.
Six years ago, there was not a man, woman, or child who didn't know I was a 10th degree horndog. But, you elected Mr. Fellatio president, anyway, which turned out to be a good move on your part. Your other choice was Bush, an aging yuppie moron who thought he could bomb his way into the White House. Before him, it was Reagan who left office with the same Alzheimer's he came with. There was Carter before him who brought you a 17% prime interest rate, smiling the whole time, like the idiot savant he is. Nixon before that coined, but never really understood, the concept of 'plausible deniability,' and got a one-way First Class ticket to San Clemente and several decent book deals. Johnson was an inbred power-mad war criminal. And John Kennedy, who took more than a few shake breaks himself behind closed doors, didn't hang around long enough for America to spot that curious atavistic inclination for beaver-wrestling shared by at least a dozen former residents of the White House. Which brings me back to me, and the point.
Since I have been strumming the banjo here, government is doing more for less.
The budget is balanced - first time since my sausage-mate, JFK, did a one gun salute to Marilyn, a fact the press didn't seem to notice, mostly because they weren't looking. Unemployment is so low today a blind felon can get a job as a night-watchman. And, the stock market is higher than a D-student on a full gram of dummy-dust, and anyone with a degree from a junior college who can spell 'software' has enough money to ponder the annual maintenance cost of his boat, instead of where the next meal is coming from.
Bottom line: I'm running a government here, not a dating school, and I've done it with my pecker showing. What I'm asking for is your support, not a date with your daughter, unless, of course, she's a babe with thin ankles, and then I'd like to discuss it. In the meantime, think about where you are today, what kind of life you're living, and before you get too interested in which way my dong points, ask yourselves this question:
Just what was it you hired me to do?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:26 - ID#287358)

just got back to civilization from big bear....chased the
gold bears thursday and friday...looking at the charts today....
must've scared the sh!t outta 'them'...they all were sporting
a stripe from head to tail...
....we're never gonna make
'275' if this keeps up!! rat-kat is gonna lose his kool,
and the rest of the world feel the fool, when gold burns
the hair from hide, as she blows by at mach 2 or better....

met some brokers families in vegas this weekend....kinda
strange...they were all dealers!


(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:33 - ID#401460)
Japan's top financial diplomat

I dont know, but it sounds like a little disagreement or difference of opinion exist here between the US and Japan.

TOKYO, March 2 ( Reuters ) - Japan's top financial diplomat, Eisuke Sakakibara, said the time may be ripe for creation of a new world monetary agreement to deal with financial crises such as the recent one in Asia, a newspaper said Monday.

Noting that a situation such as the Asian crisis could take place in any country, Sakakibara was quoted as saying: ``This just showed how unstable current world capitalism is.''

``Many people may now be realizing that both the International Monetary Fund's ( IMF ) checks and its solutions are insufficient,'' he added.

``There has been a sense that these nations would prefer to have everything taken care of by the ( Asian ) region alone,''he said.

``Japan can be ranked with other Asian countries as primarily an exporter nation, and when things go poorly for these countries the world economy suffers as a whole,'' he said.

But he said he felt there was little direct connection between the Asian currency crisis and the expansion of Japan's domestic demand, and added that calls for tax cuts to stimulate the economy were little more than ``rhetoric'' on the part of the United States.


(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:43 - ID#287280)
High Rise--Mr. Sakakibara is "Mr. Yen"
and from behind the scenes--as it were--he has long decried US policy--
In fact, he received a 'reprimand' for his 'bluntness' from his boss a week or so ago! That he speaks out again, suggests the government may be ready to be proactive! Hurrah! Nice catch.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:46 - ID#238295)
IDT:Thanks for the Venneroso material. Supports my argument that gold and the Asian markets and currencies will move in the same direction. Also reinforces my belief that the nascent gold bull will be quite slow initially. My bullion price objectives remain at $320 for the first half and $350 for the second half of the year.

Vronsky: The WGC is very late, but better late than never. The industry still has far too many weak players and many more mergers and consolidations are needed to enable the miners to meet the shorters and CBs on a more even playing field. The gold mining industry has to convincingly demonstrate they now are GROWN UPS in the Hollywood sense instead of a bunch of masochistic pussy cats begging the CBs for mercy.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 22:53 - ID#372344)
@ South Africa Gold Mines Lay-Offs.....
Many SA miners are accusing the Gold Mining Houses of taking cover
in the $300 Gold price, to restructure and massively lay off miners,
more than necessarry, and replace them with machines....
A big show down appears to have been averted, BUT talks are
still on going....IMHV most of the unprofitable SA Gold Mines should
close as soon as possible, ( temporary ) thus removing large supply of
Gold from the market and driving the POG up in short order, and thus
making many of these these Gold mines profitable again.....
I heard that some "gangs' have now taken to robbing Gold smelted from
these mines, since the Banks cut physical money transportation by
using electronic money transfers.....>

And another piece of the Gold Puzzle....

(Sun Mar 01 1998 23:01 - ID#228128)
Old Gold: My greatest concern going forward is that the Asia crisis will continue with a new round of deflationary pressures that will drag the price of gold to new lows.

(Sun Mar 01 1998 23:01 - ID#287280)
Here We Go...
FT, Mon March 2, 1998

Acquisitions: Goldman Sachs in takeover talks with Garantia
By Geoff Dyer in So Paulo and William Lewis in New York

Goldman Sachs, the US investment bank, is holding acquisition talks with
Banco Garantia, Brazil's leading investment bank, in a move that could shake up the Brazilian investment banking industry.

Garantia, known as the Goldman Sachs of Brazil, has net assets of about
$500m and could cost the US investment bank up to $1.5bn, or three times

Article states that this is the first of an expected 'wave'...
Will the public ever realize that these mergers are signs of weakness?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 23:14 - ID#57232)
Asia is starting to drift away from the US and Europe
HighRise,SDRer: I think it is quite clear that there is a financial shift in the winds. Japan is refusing to follow US ( IMF? ) advice. My guess is that they are selling US treasuries to get cash, rather then follow 'orders' and expand their money supply. And -- the talk about 'SEAsia Brady bonds' issued by strong SEAsian countries such as Taiwan makes sense. Who knows, they might actually start talking about a gold-backed currency!

(Sun Mar 01 1998 23:32 - ID#287280)
JTF, High Rise--cold, dry winds blowing...
I've once again stumbled over some data that really has me gasping...
If what appears to be 'true' is indeed the case, SE Asia will NOT
play ball with us ( West ) again! In this strange world, in a conversation in 'real time' yesterday, someone said, "Consider another world 'defense'
power, China + Russia as a counter-balance to US". Last night someone in cyber-time posted the same query. Times are getting a little too interesting!

(Sun Mar 01 1998 23:36 - ID#345268)
@ SDRer

Furthermore, Japan and S. Korea can provide all needed technology to China and Russia.

The separation between East and West may come sooner than we think. Could such separation lead eventually to a WWIII?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 23:43 - ID#28585)
Gold...we are now entering a 45 day "risk-free" period for the metal. By risk-free, I mean a period in which the upside probability far outweighs the downside probability in a manner not seen since the Carter presidency. Despite the putative absence of inflation, there are other factors coming into play that should create an upward spike in the very depressed price of the metal:

1 ) Imminent announcement of new currency standard for ASEAN nations -- probably to be announced as early as next week, not likely later than the mid-April announcement re: exact specification of the new EURO. ASEAN nations are moving speedily on this issue as they are fearful that the EURO will hasten capital flight from the region. Initially, it is expected the new ASEAN currency will be the Singapore Dollar; however, if this is so, then it will likely be a short-term fix until either the Yen or a new Asian currency ( the ASIO? ) supplants the U.S. dollar as a currency standard in the region. Like the EURO, the new ASEAN currency will be gold-supported. The ultimate effect will be to diminish the importance of the U.S. dollar in Asia and enhance the value of gold.

2 ) Detailed specifications of the EURO to be announced in mid-April --
the EURO will be gold-supported, in an expected range between 5% to 40% of reserves. The gold market has already assumed the worst, discounting gold on the basis of the lowest range of support. However, if the American dollar, stock and bond markets are experiencing severe weakness in early to mid-April ( very likely given that first quarter corporate earnings reports will be released at this time ) , then it is highly probable that, at least initially, the Europeans will be compelled to announce a high range of gold support. In such a tumultuous economic environment, dollar reserves alone will not be enough to convince Europeans of the soundness of their new currency.

3 ) Mid-East military build-up is a no-win situation for America -- with or without war, America has screwed itself royally. If the country retreats now, then other nations perceive it as weak and timid...the U.S. buck drops. If the country simply stays in the region and does nothing, then other nations perceive it as wishy-washy and ineffective....the U.S. buck drops. If the country attacks Iraq and loses, it is final confirmation of America's decline as a global leader...the U.S. buck drops. If the country attacks and decimates Iraq, then it speeds the resolve of many nations to band together in a burst of Anti-Americanism in order to thwart much despised American hegemony...and, of course, the U.S. buck drops. In any of these scenarios, the winner is gold.

...As certainly as the world turns toward its rendezvous with Spring, these are the thoughts of...FARFEL ( the Unpronounceable ) .

(Sun Mar 01 1998 23:43 - ID#251134)
George C.Cole
Can anyone tell me what happened to George Cole?

(Sun Mar 01 1998 23:44 - ID#401460)
Remember The Numbers - Volume

Some things we all should remember:

The % of the population between the ages of 46 and 56 is massive.

These same people have driven all markets for the last 50+ years.

They had a lot to do with Golds last big surge - they still have the rings, coins, and chains in their lock boxes.

They new the value of Gold then and will be quick to recognize the value in the future.

Just as the Dow has been driven to new heights by these people, Gold and Gold mining shares will be driven upward as they rotate out of the Dow.

The laws of supply and demand will rule as never before. There is a finite amount of Gold and Gold mining shares.

If just a small % of this Age group try to buy Gold the markets will be overwhelmed by the demand.

Even the cheap ECO, RYO, TVX, stocks will be in high demand. They will appreciate at multiples that boggle the imagination.

The past few months have shown that the markets are churning and investors are rotating from one type of stock to another.

It wont matter if only a small percentage are able to rotate into Gold and Gold mining shares, we are talking about millions trying to buy millions of shares and ounces that dont exist.

The Gold market is already depressed, therefore I am not sure it will collapse when the Dow retreats again. Investment dollars have always eventually sought out the best value and this time will be no different.

There are many clouds on the horizon, it is just a matter of time now.