Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 00:05 - ID#287280)
Myrmidon --Good point, albeit somewhat scary...
One also realizes that these are men who have walked through fire, e.g.
Zhu Rongji, the Finance Minister of China, spent seven years in a labor
camp during the cultural revolution for a speech made in 1957. Somehow,
I don't think Bill, Owl and Maddy are up to it... ( Hill could give them
a good scare tho! )

Lurker 700__A
(Mon Mar 02 1998 00:10 - ID#319327)
Don't know other lurkers, but I always read your posts very carefully because they depicted INSIGHTs of POWER more than just regular REASONING.
Your thoughts were much deeper than news links. hope you post more of your words than just give news-links. Thank you very much.

Big Time Tom
(Mon Mar 02 1998 00:13 - ID#212320)
George S. Cole
Aussie asked: "Can anyone tell me what happened to George Cole?"

If I were you, I would put that question to Old Gold.


(Mon Mar 02 1998 00:16 - ID#401460)
Just Another Reminder

NEXT SHIFT after 24:00 hour
Some things we all should remember:

The % of the population between the ages of 46 and 56 is massive.

These same people have driven all markets for the last 50+ years.

They had a lot to do with Golds last big surge - they still have the rings, coins, and chains in their lock boxes.

They new the value of Gold then and will be quick to recognize the value in the future.

Just as the Dow has been driven to new heights by these people, Gold and Gold mining shares will be driven upward as they rotate out of the Dow.

The laws of supply and demand will rule as never before. There is a finite amount of Gold and Gold mining shares.

If just a small % of this Age group try to buy Gold the markets will be overwhelmed by the demand.

Even the cheap ECO, RYO, TVX, stocks will be in high demand. They will appreciate at multiples that boggle the imagination.

The past few months have shown that the markets are churning and investors are rotating from one type of stock to another.

It wont matter if only a small percentage are able to rotate into Gold and Gold mining shares, we are talking about millions trying to buy millions of shares and ounces that dont exist.

The Gold market is already depressed, therefore I am not sure it will collapse when the Dow retreats again. Investment dollars have always eventually sought out the best value and this time will be no different.

There are many clouds on the horizon, it is just a matter of time now.


(Mon Mar 02 1998 00:19 - ID#257148)
Raw materials, oil, coal, steel, &c, Japan has to stretch from Aus to S America & India..


Without wishing to put the fear into you or myrmidon, the idea of war between Japan's sphere of influence that tactically and practicaly extends throughour SE Asia and through to India and the American super Continent has been well explored in "The coming War with Japan." Which the dust cover asserts was a best seller in Japan. 1991 George Friedman & Meredith LeBard.

A detailed analysis of trade economics and politics of these two vastly different nations whose destinies seem to be once again on a collision course.

"During the twentieth century as a whole, no country has more consistently regarded itself as in essential conflict with the United States than has Japan, and no country has been uniformly looked upon as a potential enemy by Americans. The burden of proof, perhaps should rest upon those who assume Japanese-American friendship rather than those who expect the contrary."

Edwin O Reischeauer
Former Ambassdador to Japan, writing in 1953

(Mon Mar 02 1998 00:25 - ID#345268)
@ all

The following URL gives the British National Debt. I don't have a Java compatible browser to view it. Could someone please chech the site and post the UK National Debt for comparison to the US? Thanks.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 00:32 - ID#345268)
@ all

Take a look on this URL's chart. Interesting numbers after 1972.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 00:34 - ID#253228)
Government is the antithesis of freedom, gold is the money of freedom
The normal distribution identified in the study of statistics is a fundamental law of nature. This law should apply to the distribution of wealth as much as it applies to the distribution of height, weight, or intelligence. However, the distribution of wealth in most nations resembles the distribution of wealth on a pre War Between the States Southern plantation, i.e., poverty to the majority and wealth to the priveleged few.
It is clear to me that this abnormal distribution of wealth within our present day USA is a result of the grant of privelege to a few by government at the expense of the majority. A football team with 15 players will normally win over a team of 3 players because they have an unequal advantage. It is no wonder that when government grants economic privelege that the grantee wins. The majority with economic disadvantage have not a chance.
The grant of privelege is accomplished by licensing by government. The biggest privelege is the right to issue new money into existence granted to banks. In the small community where I live the finest building in town is the bank. In most communities that is true.
If you have any doubt about this look in your own town and tell me if the bank building is a falling down shack. Tell me if the bank owners are living in poverty. The owner of the bank in my community lives directly accross the street from me. He drives a fine German car and travels frequently to fun places.
Knowing him, he would probably live in a shack had he not inherited his privelege from his father.
If you think the USA is a free country, you are just not in touch with reality.
Of course, the privelege granted to bankers is detremental to you ( unless you are one of the priveleged minority also ) because your wealth has been shifted out of your pockets it that of the priveleged few. You are in fact a slave living in a slave society, and this paper money is one of the links in your chains.
Add the other major link in the chain, taxes and you are just where your masters wish you to be.
Gold is the money of free men and that is why gold is not now officially money.
Now, in spite of this, it is not yet time for gold as it is not yet time for revolution. No direct assult against the system will succeed.
What is needed is a gorilla assult. Don't pay taxes when possible. Trade thru Carribbean brokers who won't report your activity to government. If you are an independent contractor don't report income that you receive that is not reported on 1099's. Buy mail order and don't pay sales tax.
And most importantly, wait until mid May, 1988 to go into the precious metals and gold shares. Don't fight the tide just because you know the truth about money, because when the masses are against you they will win. Free markets always win in the end. Again, timing is everyting in markets and if you doubt that what I say about a dramatic drop in the gold/gold shares market beginning in late March, just stand aside and watch.
Note: Any incohericency in the above can be attributed to bourbon, or the excessive watching of CNBC or too many trips to book stores.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 00:35 - ID#298259)
L 440,468,200,00...This is close to what the number would be by the time I am able to make this post. I think if you wait about 3 minutes you would find that your browser will allow you to view just takes a long time to load.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 00:37 - ID#298259)
Sorry, that is L440,468,200,000.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 00:37 - ID#401460)
A Haggis Plot?
Making Malt Whiskey in Scotland this title keeps showing up on the bottom rail of my Netscape window - it keeps searching for it. Haggis plot?

your share 18,500#

(Mon Mar 02 1998 00:40 - ID#257148)
Brit debt ticker...

and rising...
which is
18,442.60 for every Brit taxpayer.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 00:43 - ID#257148)
Jeil a Question, if I may....
repeat post

Jeil Your:---
Date: Sat Feb 28 1998 12:3 Jeil ( "Step into my parlor," said the
bear to the bull. ) ID#253228:
My work shows gold shares losing 80% of their value after this
little bear trap that may last into next week


Care to expand on the nature of your work please? I ask in the joyful anticipation that chicken entrails have nothing to do with it.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 00:45 - ID#210235)
He who has never posted under the influence will now cast the first stone.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 00:46 - ID#345268)
@ Frustrated

Thank you for posting the number, which I assume is in Pounds, and it is 440 billio. Converting it to dollars we have $726 billion and dividing it wi th 60 milllion ( the population of UK ) I get $12,100 debt per capita, not $18,500!

Where am I going wrong?

Haggis, are you there for some help?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 00:48 - ID#287280)
Aurator--I am now LIVING in a perpetual state of angst...
Edwin O Reischeauer is probably the one American truly admired and
respected in Japan...and a man well worth listening to when he speaks
of his 'second home'...So--do we listen for Taiko drums? ( For me personally, it would be a cival war, as a part of my extended family is Japanese..."I'll think about it tomorrow."
G'night {:- ) !

(Mon Mar 02 1998 00:52 - ID#345268)
@ Frustrated

OK, problem resolved, 18,500 for each British taxpayer, not per capita. My previous number of $12,100 per capita ( in $US ) is then correct.
Thank you.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 00:54 - ID#374211)
@ Lurker700.....
Thank-You for your show of appreciation, but really as has often been said I too stand on the shoulders of GIANTS, I'm glad to see someone
with their eye on the BIG picture. I have and probably will be very
busy for the next little while, but will certainly try to post and selectively
lurk as often as possible. Thanks again and stay tuned......

(Mon Mar 02 1998 01:00 - ID#344205)
Goverment bond wallpaper
In digging thru some old files, I found some long misplaced old German Municipal Bonds. They are 200,000 in german Marks ( Reichs ) in beatiful red and green colors, purchased by my grandfather in 1922 ( before the hyperinflation ) . These City Bonds are guaranteed by the city of KOLN, ( Cologne ) , and payable at 8%. My poor Grandfather could only watch with horror as his savings went to nothing in the '29 crash.

As it is true that the Reichs were replaced by Marks; I believe that a bond, denominated in Reichs, guaranteed by a city cannot be regarded as invalid as a politcal currency......that the City of Cologne is a live and immensly productive city today, and that their bonds.....regardless of the currency they are denominated in, must be honored. With 77 years of compounding interests at 8%, I would suspect that this 200,000 Reichs would look more like a couple of million, and thus propose the following offer;
I will share 1/3 of the collected amount of these bonds to anyone who manages to collect from the German Municipal goverment. Many years ago I posed an inquiry, and the Goverment refused to I suspect that this will be a job for a German lawyer. So as to keep this within parameters, the 1/3 will be paid in Gold.
Any takers?
Send email address, and I will send scanned copies.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 01:01 - ID#345268)
HighRise, Aurator, Frustrated

Thank you all for your help on the UK National Debt.

John Disney__A
(Mon Mar 02 1998 01:02 - ID#24135)
You may have a problem
For TZ

Your recent post said

"Many SA miners are accusing the Gold Mining Houses of taking cover

in the $300 Gold price, to restructure and massively lay off miners,

more than necessarry, and replace them with machines.... "

Dear TZ, what would you expect any union to

say ?? That its a really good idea to cut

the workforce in half ?? Really ??

Then you say

"A big show down appears to have been averted, BUT talks are

still on going...."

I told you there would be no strike after

you howled about it several times .. The

summit is over . The union got a ( 45 ?? ) day

period of notification before terminating

would be effected. Since most planned reductions

are in place, the Union nave been allowed to look as

if they have achieved something.

Kloof may have a small battle with Libanon

and Leeudoorn closures. Harmony Randfontein and Durban

Deep are so thinned down they couldnt cut anyone anyway.

Lorraine must close if it hasnt aready. ERPM

keeps making money ( I dont know how ) .

Then you say

"IMHV most of the unprofitable SA Gold Mines should

close as soon as possible, ( temporary ) thus removing large supply of

Gold from the market and driving the POG up in short order, and thus

making many of these these Gold mines profitable again..... "

Maybe that's what you THINK should happen but that's

NOT what's GOING to happen. As I said earlier, Kloof may

close two useless mines. Avgold must close Lorraine. But

using my criteria .. Many NA mines should have been closed

a while ago. If your interest is saving the skin of the HIGH

average cost NA mines ( and I think it is ) , then you should

worry thay maybe Anglos ( who leads the RSA industry ) is

quite happy REALLY to KEEP the gold price BELOW the average

cost level of the NA mines and will do so until these

mines are forced to close , while it continues to remove the

fat from the RSA industry.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 01:03 - ID#344205)
Correcting email address
As the Kitco program underlines email addresses, note that the address in cmax_au.... ( with the little space bar ) and then

(Mon Mar 02 1998 01:08 - ID#253228)
Prometheus, aurator
My work is statistical in nature. My initial calculation is to put a line through a time series. This is not necessarily predictive of the future but is establishes a mean or a moving mean. It is like taking Michael Jordan over his career and plotting his yearly average score. You can imagine this is a non-linear uptrending line at least until he reaches his maturity. If his current average is running around 30 points per game you know what to expect in the next game, i.e. 30 points, and if he scores 10 you know that is low. For Homestake Mines the current mean or trend value is roughly $15.
If nothing else I know that at its current value of $10 is is below the mean. Historically is swings as much as 90% away from its mean is its meandering path. At 33% below its mean it is not at an extreme, in fact, it is only about 1 standard deviation away.
I base my predictions on the identification of cyclical motions around the trend line. I use a fourier type analysis to identify possible regular cycles and then confirm them with a Bartels test for statistical significance. I then project the hundreds of cycles I have identified into the future around the projected non-linear trend and have an estimate of the future.
As a side point, the Dow was more than 3 standard deviations above its mean in 1987 when it fell. It is not that far out on a limb now and I expect it can go higher before a plunge.
In my view the essence of everything is vibration. It is the building block of energy and energy is the building block of matter. You and I are essentially vibrations ( didn't you live in the 1960's ) and all around us is vibration including the movement of markets. Seeing the future is a matter of identifying the real vibrations ( oscillations, cycles ) in the markets and profiting from them.
P.S. My wife's favorite food is chicken.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 01:09 - ID#345268)
@ Cmax

I don't think you will get anything because the maturity date is well passed. Normally there is one year from the maturity date to cash the bond.

You should have acted earlier, sorry!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 01:19 - ID#153102)
By the fall of 1923 all of the bonds ever issued by Cologne could have been paid for the price of an egg.
egg price 1918 one quarter reichmark
summer 1923 5,000
nov 1923 80 billion
Imagine what a chicken was worth !
Until late in 1923 the courts enforced the right of a debtor to discharge debt in the reichmark. Your grandfather's bonds were paid by a bookeeping entry in the city clerks office one day. The record was probably destroyed in the 1940's. I suggest you frame the certificates with a picture of your grandfather and use it teach your children about him and why never to loan to a government.
Or you can sell them to me for the price of an egg.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 01:22 - ID#284255)
Elliot comentary on gold with charts

John Disney__A
(Mon Mar 02 1998 01:28 - ID#24135)
I have a funny feeling that you may be right
For Jeil
Can you expand on your forecast of a gold crash in mid/late march.
Some others forecasters that I respect feel the same way. Are you
basing this on Elliot wave with a wave 5 down to come ( or are you
getting at it another way ) ??
Practically speaking, I expect the RSA mines to report BAD results
in early April for the March quarter.
The gold price has been awful for the period but I think that Mine
management will make the results look even worse by reserving heavily into the future quarters ( to the extent they can as this ends the tax year ) .
The reason is that they will want to suppress profits to avoid
embarassing the union following the recent massive layoffs. Showing
profits at this stage would be very counter productive.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 01:29 - ID#345268)
@ sharefin

The gold chart surely points down. I wish I hadn't seen it!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 01:30 - ID#253228)
Additional bear comment
One thing that I did not state in my previous post was that once we get past the decline into April, May, 1998 in the gold shares that a lot of fortunes will be made by gold bugs who have capital left to buy at that point. While the road up will be like a drunkards path, those who can play it will have the pleasure of dying rich, and possibly more importantly have the funds along the way to end the tyrany of this group plunder we call government. You fellows need to get the new Davidson, Rees-Mogg ?? book "The Soverign Individual" if you want to read an optomistic view of the decline of government plunder.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 01:39 - ID#374211)
@ Heard on the Street.....cont'........last post before bed......
As I suggested last week the US$ is getting battered down almost
another 1 Yen also down vs Mark and SF....Asian markets are taking
the lead from "mouthy" Japan, who earlier tonite said it would use
post and insurance funds to prop up it's market now up almost
500 points, can 18000 be far behind?....Gold is up about 30 cents
I would expect a bit of a rally over 300 today in NY, this would be
a great indicator since most Mondays have been down days for Gold.....
I noticed Taiwan's heads are visiting the ME for ? Oil?, China is
of course furious, will there be another Taiwanese airplane "crash"?....
My earlier post suggesting that Asian "brady" bonds could be backed by
Taiwan and Japan et al is the strongest hint thus far of a GIANT rift
developing between US, Asia and EU...BTW in Germany Ginzer won
in his primary so he will be the leader opposing Kohl, ( in the upcoming
general election ) who has already let it be known that even if he looses the EURO is a done deal, nothing can derail it now... it would be of course one of his greatest triumphs......BTW anything and everything
I post is of course IMHO.....

stay tuned....

(Mon Mar 02 1998 01:43 - ID#153102)
Enjoyed your post. Feel like I'm in the company of a real son of liberty. Your cautions about the crowd are well spoken, but there must be people who talk to the people. Lots of little Sam Adam's, Tom Paine's, and Patrick Henry's are indispensable.
Licensing is the general American government scam. You have that nailed.

On you POG work, is there a probability calculated for the deep cycle you predict for late March ?

And what is the predicted length of the vibration period and the predicted date of deepest variation from the mean ?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 01:44 - ID#253228)
Disney, My grandaughter's and my favorite place in Florida
I do not use Elliott wave. I can see it applied to historical data, but I never was able to use is prospectively. I have a number of formula's set up in a loop and every night I run my list of cycles through a retest procedure where I pull one at a time off the list, subtract all others from the data so I can look at that one oscillation, and I recalculate it replacing the old period, phase and amplitude with the recalculated values. Periodically, I go in manually and look for previously unidentified oscillations. If my projection fails to trac the future successfully, I have a technique where I shock my list in a way that tells me which cycles might be misidentified and I remove them. It is an ongoing battle to kekep the projection effective. In the time I have been doing this I can say the projections keep getting better, but not prefect. I really don't expect any clear drop until later this month and then a really sharp move down over the first three weeks in April followed by a bounce and then a small further decline into about May 15 when I thru a foreign corporation and both my daughters individaully plan to lay it all on the line.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 01:45 - ID#284255)
Up ,up and away
Go back and have another look.
The article was posted july last year.
The fall that the article was talking of was the fall to sub $300.

"Probes to slight new lows should complete wave 5 and allow gold to begin a wave ( 2 ) bounce at least back into the $336-$365 range of the wave 4 triangle. "

Sakakibara suggests new world monetary system

John Disney__A
(Mon Mar 02 1998 01:49 - ID#24135)
You answered my question
For Jeil
Okay .. you use Fourier analysis ..
1. Where do do see GOLD going as a cycle forecast??
2. Where do you see the Jse going ?? There have been
structural changes in the industry vis a vis relative
average costs between RSA and NA Mines whether one
likes it or not. It is possible that NA mines may
crash in price ( at this stage ) while RSA mines stay
more or less constant .. simply because NA mines are
OVER priced relatively speaking and have less reserves
per share. I suggest you try a fourier analysis of the Jse
and the $XAU to try to test the reasonableness of this

(Mon Mar 02 1998 01:51 - ID#374211)
@ Ginzer=Schroeder

(Mon Mar 02 1998 01:54 - ID#253228)
The Bartels test I use was designed for noisy data. I really take most of the noise out of the data by the process of removing all other known cycles but the one I am testing or retesting. As a result my probability results come up unbeliveably low, so I adjust my thinking and do not put any cycle on my list that does not test at least 95% probable.
As to my estimate of the bottom, I had a discussion with my older daughter a few hours ago because she wants to put her IRA funds in gold shares at the bottom and I told her that I think Mid May will be either the bottom or the second dip in a double bottom. Of course my calculations are constantly changing based on the new data points added and internal dynamics in the system.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 01:54 - ID#28585)
Silver...the recent, huge advance in silver leaves many doubters expecting the top is now in. Skeptics such as Martin Armstrong note that backwardation in the metal is the sure indicator that bullish mania has gone beyond sustainability and the metal is ready to tumble. Yet, silver is a very unique commodity in a very unique time in our history. At this point, it has far more positives than negatives. Despite this fact, it will remain highly volatile on its way toward its double digit destiny by Summer's arrival. The factors operating in its favor are:

1 ) Existent supply shortfalls will exacerbate severely as industrial consumption mounts steadily while investment fever explodes -- the evidence indicates that the Asian middle-class sold gold to pay debt during during the recent regional financial panic. Now, as the panic subsides in various countries, there is equally compelling evidence that those Asians who covered their debts with gold sales are now using residual monies to purchase the more affordable hard asset, silver, in preparation for the next financial debacle that visits them. Although silver bears point to recent, abundant announcements regarding new silver exploration ( and hence, increased silver supply ) , the time lag for significant new supply to hit the markets is approximately 1-2 years.

2 ) Warren Buffett Effect to escalate over time -- as Warren Buffett's enormous silver investment undergoes further analysis and evaluation, it is natural to expect other fellow billionaires to emulate him, converting paper wealth to silver. It is a trend that should accelerate as the verticality of the financial markets continue. Big money will want to protect itself given the increasing likelihood the financial bubble will burst. With soaring speculation occurring against severely depleted supplies, silver backwardation becomes a perfectly understandable phenomenon. Its duration could last as long as supply fails to keep up with demand and, as I pointed out earlier, a one year time span is not incomprehensible.

3 ) The fundamental American belief that history repeats itself -- whenever investors theorize about the ultimate attainable level in silver's price, inevitably history is recalled in the form of the Hunt brother silver manipulation scam. At that time, conspiratorial forces drove silver up to $50 an ounce on the back of a two-pronged phenonomenon, namely the environment of high inflation and abundant supply. Now, we find ourselves in the environment of putatively low inflation and rapidly evaporating supply. Ergo, there is at least one of the two prongs in place to allow a double digit silver price to be realized.

These are some of the thoughts that will surely bloom in full by the Summer of our lives...from FARFEL ( the Unpronounceable ) .

(Mon Mar 02 1998 02:03 - ID#253228)
I should make it clear I speak only of Homestake Mines from personal analysis.. I do no analysis on the XAU, Gold, or any other gold shares. I believe however, they do move as a group, and that if Homestake hits below $2, maybe below $1, then all others in the group will be devistated. I had to laugh that the management of Homestake is now reported to be authorized to make forward sales of gold. Maybe previous forward sales will help others. Maybe, maybe, maybe, but I would not want to be long anything but a core holding of coins which I do not plan to sell under any circumstances short of starvation.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 02:04 - ID#374211)
@ Latest SE Asian action....
Japan's MOF Officials to visit SE Asian countries from March 2-6 for
$ the same time US envoy arrives in Indonesia for threats er
..I mean talks on IMF Funds?....and Japan's MOF pays 680 Bill Yen
via it's forex account....>

(Mon Mar 02 1998 02:09 - ID#252127)

This Sakakibara suggestion of "A New World Monetary System" is enough to make Camdessus quit.
Probably it's just to divert attention from something real bad.
Wonder whats up?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 02:19 - ID#153102)
On your daughter's IRA, please be advised the rules can change overnight. There are no contract or other legal rights possessed by an IRA account holder. My personal view is that it is wise to get the money now while it is possible. The government will, I believe, freeze these accounts in a crisis. Some have noted that gold coins can now be held in IRA. All that means is they are now subject to seizure and your daughter is subject to grand jury subpoena where they will compel her to tell where the coin can be found or sit in a cage. Very few Americans have any idea of how helpless they will be in the clutches of a prosecutor. And the lawyer they hire is the friend of their enemy. I do not exaggerate.

Did I understand you to say you will only be long coin and not long any shares whatsoever ?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 02:27 - ID#257148)
Gold paper ain't no better than paper paper, when paper burns......


Thank you for you exposition. No suprise, but you lost me on fourier analyis. No, I'm not asking for an explanation! Interesting your views. I thought one of the most revealing non-events at kitco was the unwillingness of anyone but auric ( known gambler, gentleman and goldbug ) to take me up on what, to any objective analysis was an easy touch.

Marked I think a sea change at kitco. Months ago the entire congregation would've fallen over themselves to get a slice of a gold bullion kiwi coin on a spike below $325.00

As to your timing, most interesting too. Time to have another look at the work of Burt.

Come on baby, light my fire 

(Mon Mar 02 1998 02:38 - ID#253228)
True, the politicians see an IRA as grounds for plunder. Unfortunately, my daughter's IRA came about by a rollover from an end to her employer's stock purchase plan in connection with a takeover. She was faced with either giving up what amounted to 1/2 of her funds when the 10% early distribution penalty and state taxes were figured in or folding into a non Roth IRA. My suggestion of taking the funds and setting up a Turks & Caicos corporation did not make sense to her.
I understand that Hillary in her Health Care Plan suggested that the government tax IRA's on time at 20% to fund the cost of her view of charity. I hear from my head shrinking buddy that guilt is often the motivation of charity. I can guess where Bill and Hillary are coming from, especially Bill.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 02:44 - ID#28585)
Gold...we are now entering a 45 day "risk-free" period for the metal. By risk-free, I mean a period in which the upside probability far outweighs the downside probability in a manner not seen since the Carter
presidency. Despite the putative absence of inflation, there are other factors coming into play that should create an upward spike in the very depressed price of the metal:

1 ) Imminent announcement of new currency standard for ASEAN nations -- probably to be announced as early as next week, not likely later than the mid-April announcement re: exact specification of the new EURO. ASEAN nations are moving speedily on this issue as they are fearful that the EURO will hasten capital flight from the region. Initially, it is expected the new ASEAN currency will be the Singapore Dollar; however, if this is so, then it will likely be a short-term fix until either the Yen or a new Asian currency ( the ASIO? ) supplants the U.S. dollar as a currency standard in the region. Like the EURO, the new ASEAN currency will be gold-supported. The ultimate effect will be to diminish the importance of the U.S. dollar in Asia and enhance the value of gold.

2 ) Detailed specifications of the EURO to be announced in mid-April -- the EURO will be gold-supported, in an expected range between 5% to 40% of reserves. The gold market has already assumed the worst, discounting gold on the basis of the lowest range of support. However, if the American dollar, stock and bond markets are experiencing severe weakness in early to mid-April ( very likely given that first quarter corporate earnings reports will be released at this time ) , then it is highly probable that, at least initially, the Europeans will be compelled to announce a high range of gold support. In such a tumultuous economic environment, dollar reserves alone will not be enough to convince Europeans of the soundness of their new currency.

3 ) Mid-East military build-up is a no-win situation for America -- with or without war, America has screwed itself royally. If the country retreats now, then other nations perceive it as weak and timid...the U.S. buck drops. If the country simply stays in the region and does nothing, then other nations perceive it as wishy-washy and ineffective....the U.S. buck drops. If the country attacks Iraq and loses, it is final cofirmation of America's decline as a global leader...the U.S. buck drops. If the country attacks and decimates Iraq, then it speeds the resolve of many nations to band together in a burst of Anti-Americanism in order to thwart much despised American hegemony...and, of course, the U.S. buck drops. In any of these scenarios, the winner is gold.

...As certainly as the world turns toward its rendezvous with Spring, these are the thoughts of...FARFEL ( the Unpronounceable ) .

John Disney__A
(Mon Mar 02 1998 02:46 - ID#24135)
Where have you been all my life ??
For Jeil/Mozel ... I agree fully all the stuff about
governments and even go so far as to applaud all
assassinations of Government leaders world wide on
general priciples ( albeit with limited display low
cost crocodile tears about poor wife relatives etc
to avoid revealing fully the savage beast that lurks
behind bland exterior ) . I long for the day they all the arrogant
rats are dragged screaming to the axe.
All the above notwithstanding, Im very interested in this
cycle business .. Do you use a computer program to do
this .. you must ! What is it?? How do you generate the
fourier analysis??
Tell me more.. why not test the Jse?? or even the FT
index. If you wish, Ill email you jse data. How
about platinum?. Whats a little extra work?? I think the
"move as a group" assumption is dubious as I expect RSA mines
to be rerated relative to NA mines. ( Others may disagree on this
and thats OK by me ) . But Id do anything to get away from bloody
EW analysis and this fourier stuff is interesting.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 02:54 - ID#253228)
A baby, I understand, does not see himself as separate from his surroundings. The process of identity formation ( who am I ) reaches a crisis in teen years as any parent of teenagers knows. ( I personally can remember becomming very self conscious around 5th or 6th grade ) .
If all goes well we each come to see ourselves as independent human beings. If there is a failure in the process of becomming an independent human being then we do not see the boundries between ourselves and others. We retain some of the infantile egocentricity.
In other words we become a believer in government.
I know that politicians do not know where I end and they begin because they are always putting their hands in my pocket.
I thought it would be funny to say they become Deomcrats, but then when it comes to personal vices Republicans seem to know know what is my life and what is theirs.
What we have here is a mass failure of identity formation.
On that note my being is tired and since I am afraid of the dark, I need to escape to sleep.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 02:56 - ID#153102)
Hillary's proposal was a wedge proposition. IRA holders are going to be plundered by "necessity and emergency". They are not just sitting fat ducks; they are captive fat ducks. BTW the end result of the Kassenbaum "insurance reform health care bill" that passed in the senate by 100 to 0 will be indistinguishible from the Hillary Plan.

Guilty policitian's do gravitate to proposals that are generous with other people's money. Literally anything is possible out of Washington now.

I really strongly suggest you try again to impress on your daughter the concept of one half a loaf is better than none before she receives a life lesson. Just ask her what will be easier for the politicians to do in a crisis: taking, or borrowing against, the money of a few savers which is in easily identified accounts or a general tax increase ?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 02:58 - ID#39845)
something is moving POG right now!
Hope this is long and sustained. Should be, there aint much
holding back this bull only sentiment. And hey, all the
negative sentiment has dried up.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 03:00 - ID#257148)

Okee. If Fourier be de way. plse point me someone to an idiot's guide to Fourier. URLs Anyone?

You mean there's more to life than regression, EW and Flamin' Fibo???

mutter, mutter, mutter,

Off to discover another secret of the universe....

 Essential bits of the Brewer's Bible, taking wing acrosss the Pacific as we speak, and fart..

(Mon Mar 02 1998 03:09 - ID#28585)
PRAGMATIC THOUGHTS ABOUT PRECHTER WAVE THEORY... the prognostications of Joe Granville.

As incoherent as the ocean waves crashing against the shore.

FARFEL ( the Unpronounceable )

(Mon Mar 02 1998 03:10 - ID#253228)
John Disney
Another night I'll get back to you on this idea of cycles. I am too tired to make sense now. I know of no stock program that is available that really works. I use several programs that I run in a batch file. Most I wrote myself, but one I obtained from the Foundation For The Study of Cycles in Pennsylvania. I had to modify their program because of what I considered weaknesses. Unfortunately as with many home done programs the author skips a lot of the finishing touches that would make it usable by others. And to boot, if everyone could buy such a program and calculate the future then would not everyone act today to benefit. If you thought the price of Homestake in May would be $1 would you buy today? If you held it wouldn't you sell today? Would not everyone act likewise and would not the price of Homestake be immediately $1 plus any dividend discounted back to today?
The point is that even if my work is correct ( which only time will tell ) only a few people can know about it for it to work. Remember the admonition in the movie "Back to the Future" that interference in the past will affect the future. Well, we are in the past if the future is $1 or $2 Homestake in May, 1998.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 03:14 - ID#153102)
Mass failure of identity formation or manipulation of that portion of the population in which identity formation has been intentionally stunted by a school, media, and legal system that is hostile to independence ? I realize I'm only elaborating on your fundamental insight.

Thanks again for your posts. I shall keep some powder dry and in reserve. Please let us know of any change of view.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 03:15 - ID#233199)
SSC Warrants ???

Is there anyone there who can comment on Sunshine warrants?
NASDAQ: silvw?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 03:20 - ID#28585)
...necessary evil to get bondholders to "work" with the company and avoid foreclosure.

Major Downside...dilutive effect.

Major Upside...some very Big Boys now own these warrants and will want to see stock move up in order to exercise.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 03:22 - ID#233199)
@farfel: Thanks

(Mon Mar 02 1998 03:24 - ID#233199)
@farfel: with all due respect..

Does your nom de screem have anything to do with the Nestles commercil of old?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 03:27 - ID#28585)
Farfel ( the Unpronounceable )

(Mon Mar 02 1998 03:29 - ID#233199)


and G'night

(Mon Mar 02 1998 03:30 - ID#257148)
Auckland, my auckland, city of sails and a lot of candles..
Darn it I'm feeling prickly tonight, a brief foray into fourier, fooey!.
Great IMF birthday song. but, what's this "world turning to rendezvous with spring stuff, old bean? a tad geographocentric, not to mention, cosmologically incorrect and perhaps sexist to boot???

You're right about the Auckland power crisis as a possible portend. This crisis ( 10% power to the CBD ) has shown once again the frailty of our comnparatively sophisticates utility infrastructure that has just not accomodated the massive increase in population density in the past decade. A few years ago we had problems, after a prolonged drought, with the water supply, now the electricity supply. Some will recall that there was a computer problem before christmas affecting thousands of State Servants pay packets.

These infrastructure ruptures, when collated could lead one to think this is a third world city. The truth is far from that. just stress on a fast growing city that occupies one of the largest urban/suburban areas on earth. I must be mad heading into it. Just seemed like a good idea at the time...

away to count the US debt, eh Haggis?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 03:34 - ID#153102)
Glad you are posting again.
Did you see the New History of America based on facts about gold, silver, & debt that I posted ?

If gold were to drop below $218, the BIS ( and I think IMF as well ) would be technically bankrupt. The $280 figure assumes a Swiss currency standard gold backing factor for margin of safety for BIS.

I noticed the Australian mines are forward selling. Are RSA mines doing so ?

I am highly suspicious of this public tour announced for Mulroney by WGC. Mulroney is bound to know the drama written for gold since he is ABX board with Bush & Jordan. What could be the point of this publicized lobbying of European CB's ? Or is Mulroney just scamming WGC for a few extra bucks ? Who pays for WGC's activities ?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 03:52 - ID#39845)
this related to gold-yes-well maybe- anyhow at the laundry it is.Close all laundromats

(Mon Mar 02 1998 04:03 - ID#328159)
I have discovered something that has the potential to impact negatively not only on DROOY but also other gold fields in the Free State/West Rand.

I shall post more on this matter later

(Mon Mar 02 1998 04:23 - ID#393224)
I would hate to see Auckland, or any major city in the world, in a 'real' crisis. Imagine if someone was actually TRYING to shut a city down!! In N.Z. it happens all by itself!! I am afraid that our so-called civilization hangs by a slender thread on the civility of it's citizens. In Indonesia right now they are finding out what happens when that 'civility' disappears. In a real crisis Western cities may experience the marauding hordes of starving and disaffected. In our lifetime?? You betcha!!!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 04:35 - ID#31868)
I am alive, the Republic lives. Truly, there is a God, when I awaken I will appear in front of everyone, wearing only a white robe, I can never be reborn nor die, I am that which can never be silenced, but forever heard

mozel, I am the infinity the Watcher wished to be; Fantastic Four Comic number not remembered.

Truly there is good in man and woman, look deep, further than your mind might want to know.

mozel, you are on the right track

your friend,

Kevan Sarkis Khanamirian


middle name from Smryna

(Mon Mar 02 1998 04:42 - ID#393224)
Go to Jeil. Do not pass go. Do not collect $200.
Dangit, Jeil. I just bought a whole lot of gold shares last week. What is all this about 20 cents on the dollar by May?? MY charts say we're having a nice little anti-correction AND that just when everyone thinks it's gonna go back down--gold is gonna go up some more!! Now you're making me nervous about the placement of my stop-losses--SO now that you've entered the debate--don't you dare disappear on us. I shall be awaiting your progress reports with baited breath and the hope that you are an undergrad pretending to be older and more experienced while you take us for a ride.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 04:57 - ID#255151)

Yeah, I remember the power failure in New York City in, I believe, 1965. The looting began within minutes. In America, at least, we are much more violent and lawless now than we were in '65. Scary, eh?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 05:04 - ID#33024)
Gold, Mines, and Stocks: Technical Analysis

(Mon Mar 02 1998 05:05 - ID#33024)
Gold, mines, and Stocks: Technical Analysis

(Mon Mar 02 1998 05:05 - ID#393224)
G'day 500
Mate, didn't they have a baby boom 9 months after that New York power failure// They weren't ALL out rioting. I remember Watts as well. All major cities are just one food shortage away from major trouble. What good is gold in a riot?? You just chuck a few gold coins out your window, and while the rioters are scrambling for them you sneak out the back. Loaves of bread may do just as well--so stock up on a few bags of flour.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 05:09 - ID#31868)
I was there during the time you mention. 116 Central Park South, 12 N, hmmmm what did we see in that time of darkness. hmmmmmmm

(Mon Mar 02 1998 05:24 - ID#288295)
SWP1@ SSC warrants

There are two SSC warrants ourstanding - SILVW and SILVZ.
These have different conversion prices, and more importantly, one is CALLABLE ( I think SILVW ) , the other non-callable. Call shareholder relations to get the details, as I don't remember the specifics.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 05:29 - ID#255151)
tolerant 1, Nick@C

t1--I should have written that looting
started within minutes of darkness. I just
remember reading about it in the papers.
Nick--How about shouting, "Hey, there's GOLD
at Sutter's Mill!! ( It worked in '49 )

(Mon Mar 02 1998 05:40 - ID#255151)
And Speaking of Gold Rush

Check this out-- Go Gold!

Crystal Ball
(Mon Mar 02 1998 05:48 - ID#287367)

(Mon Mar 02 1998 06:00 - ID#284255)
Still chaos in Auckland?
It is indeed a fragile system that connects reality to day-to-day living.
All those Aucklanders who recently bought fans in the heat of the moment will now be wondering what to do with them.

Generators may soon be worth more than Rhodium.

This article is one of the best I've seen in layman's terms that explains how susceptible we can become:

And I posted some others URLs the other day

Interesting article on comparisons between the S&P500 and dividend yields - good charts.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 06:11 - ID#31868)
no need to knock, forever welcome in my home, Lyle's Golden Syrup is in the cupboard, and plenty of fresh bread, if you have no means, simply sign.......The Prince Of Manhattan... they will will be an honor for me

(Mon Mar 02 1998 06:27 - ID#284255)
Gold up on a Monday?
GCJ8 on
Is well bid @ 50 contracts.
Strong support.

Bully Beef
(Mon Mar 02 1998 06:48 - ID#259282)
Gold up but It's always New York that kills it.
I noted in my chicken entrails that it would go up. Is that fundamentals or Technical analyisis?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 06:49 - ID#39845)
Cherokee, if i may in your absence, please.
Chaos and flux are taking smoko, while watching the REPERCUSSION.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 07:03 - ID#93130)
Gold Bid
SHAREFIN: Where did you find the 50 contract size of the gold bid on QuoteCom?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 07:06 - ID#29082)
SWP1 @ SSC Warrants
This message board has some discussion of the warrants and prices well as general stuff about SSC.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 07:12 - ID#284255)
Looked good for a minute.
It was about an hour ago, aroung 6am.
Ask was 11 and bid was 50
It jumped about a dollar in the next 10 minutes.
Now the quotes are boring @ 1:1

(Mon Mar 02 1998 07:21 - ID#238295)
Farfel: Great post!

Fierce battle beingg fought at the $300 level today. Looks like the shorts are going to lose. $310 next major resistance.

Another good omen -- JSE gold index up 4% this morning

(Mon Mar 02 1998 07:25 - ID#284255)
JP Morgan burning paper? how much?
KEEP an eye on J.P. Morgan.

The most upitty of all New York banks, Morgan had to swallow hard last week when it announced that its profits were stinkeroo, that it would lay off 700 people and that it might have to submit to a merger.

The betting in banking circles is that it might run into the arms of another bank or - yuck - even an investment banking firm.

Which gets me to the point of this column. Why, exactly, did this 150-year-old banking legend suddenly have to take such drastic steps? Bank executives said the cutbacks were necessary "so that expected revenue growth exceeds expense growth."

Experts had their own take on things. One Wall Street analyst, who undoubtedly pulls in a small fortune being such a genius, blamed the move on the "rationalization that occurs in the ( banking ) industry from time to time."

That must have taken him quite a while to come up with.

No, my sources and I suspect that there is something a little more to J.P.'s sudden nervousness - Asia and a little something called currency derivatives.

A ticking bomb that isn't just going off at stodgy old J.P., which no doubt was a lot more cautious with these screwy investments than other banks.J.P. Morgan has already given some sense of its Asian problems. A few weeks ago the bank sued Boram Bank of South Korea for $180 million, alleging that Boram failed to make payment on derivative trades.

That's a lot of money, but not enough dough to make J.P. quake. So what else is there?

According to Charles Peabody, the most straightforward bank analyst I know, J.P. Morgan and other banks may be sitting on a lot of other faulty derivatives. And if the value of the U.S. dollar continues to remain at its current high levels, the derivative trades set up during the days when we actually envied Asia will become a bigger headache.

Peabody tells me that J.P. Morgan recently put more than $600 million in Asian investments on so-called non-performing status. Most of that money, Peabody believes, is involved in total return swaps - trades that bet one currency will do better than another.

But J.P. Morgan's exposure to Asia is far greater than the amount that is now not performing. For instance, the bank has $900 million in loans and trades outstanding in Indonesia, $3.4 billion in South Korea and $1.1 billion in Thailand. How many of those loans and trades will become non-performing in the future is anyone's guess.

The exposure, however, isn't all with risk-free customers. J.P. Morgan is on the hook for only $1.1 billion with government agencies. A far bigger amount - $3.1 billion is outstanding with Asian banks and $1.2 billion with corporations.

But there's a bigger story here. If J.P. Morgan got into this sort of trouble, how bad is the situation at other major U.S. banks? "Morgan is signifying it's going to be tough times for the industry," says Peabody.

This column started warning readers months ago about the trading problems that American banks and brokerage firms might have because of their involvement in Asia.

Specifically I pointed to a derivative called a "non-deliverable" or "undeliverable" currency forward contracts which, sources on the street tell me, are akin to plunking a bet down on a craps table.

The one bank that could have an even bigger problem is Chase Manhattan. "Chase is going to show more problems than Morgan at the end," says Peabody.

And J.P. Morgan's problems could grow. Peabody thinks 25 percent of the Asia exposure could eventually turn rotten - or about $2 billion.

Chase, on the other hand, hasn't allocated any reserves yet for Asian problems. The bank has around $10 billion in total exposure to Asia in loans and trades. If its problems are of the same magnitude as J.P. Morgan's it would mean that $1.2 billion would have to be reserved.

Banks like Citicorp have more exposure to Asia through loans rather than trading. So the pain there will probably be delayed somewhat.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 07:31 - ID#39845)
Hope they swallowed harder than you know who.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 07:33 - ID#26793)
Indonesia currency board idea a ploy?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 07:35 - ID#26793)
Indonesia on the brink of hyper-inflation

(Mon Mar 02 1998 07:35 - ID#284255)
Milhouse's article at you know where. golden-eagle
This should make you happy.

"When the turning point in confidence arrives, the gold price will rise irrespective of Central Bank sales or lending. It is also likely that the gold price will rise the most in terms of the currencies of the countries which have sold their gold reserves."

(Mon Mar 02 1998 07:38 - ID#26793)
Fuji Bank rating cut to one notch above junk

(Mon Mar 02 1998 07:39 - ID#284255)
Just a drop in the bucket or the tip of the iceberg?

Just the tip of the iceberg as the US Titanic steams ahead at full speed.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 07:39 - ID#39845)
Oh dear Chaos and Flux only took 15min.
Selamat malam. Indonesia itu sakit, sakit, sakit.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 07:41 - ID#26793)
Japanese car sales plunge ANOTHER 20%

(Mon Mar 02 1998 07:44 - ID#284255)
"That was the height of insult."

Camdessus showing off his bad body language.

Once more the dominant West rubs their noses the wrong way.

How much face will they lose before they react?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 07:45 - ID#398105)
Gentlemen, stand up and raise your glass to.................

US$300 per ounce............

(Mon Mar 02 1998 07:46 - ID#26793)
Japenese scandals widen; more arrests, suicides

(Mon Mar 02 1998 07:46 - ID#39845)
sharefin, thats the price you pay for being big.------]]]WHIMPERING KITTENS check this out!!!
Monday 2 March, 1998 ( 7:07pm AEDT )

Malaysia's Prime Minister has unleashed a new attack on
currency and stock market speculators, saying they had
reduced Asia's Tiger economies to whimpering kittens.

Doctor Mahathir also lashed out at international agencies,
saying they were imposing stringent conditions that would
prevent the region's ailing economies from recovering.

In a speech to businessmen, diplomats and trade union
leaders, he claimed the sharp devaluation of Southeast Asia's
currencies and the decline in share prices were used to
impoverish the region.

Dr Mahathir says the economic turmoil caused by the
devaluation of the currencies of these countries reduced the
tigers to whimpering kittens and forced them to seek help
from international agencies.

He complained that the economic collapse and conditions
exacted by international agencies will make it almost
impossible for the region to recover economically.

Return to the World News Menu

plus from the Asia Pacific Region in Indonesian, Chinese and Tok Pisin

 1998 Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Mon Mar 2 19:30:00 1998 ( AEDT )

AEDT = Australian Eastern Daylight Time which is 11 hours ahead of UTC ( Greenwich Mean Time )

(Mon Mar 02 1998 07:56 - ID#31876)
Kitco Showing $300

(Mon Mar 02 1998 07:57 - ID#26793)
Did the nightcrew miss this bombshell?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 08:04 - ID#316238)
CNBC Europe
Good morning to all. Would anyone know if there is a replacement site for the CNBC Europe\market\commodities? They used to report the pm's updated every 15 min.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 08:10 - ID#432148)
Great url, in a few months they will even have an English translation ;- )

(Mon Mar 02 1998 08:12 - ID#432148)
Lou_Jan CNBC site
I am getting 404 same as you, may be temporary.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 08:16 - ID#432148)
Donald_A - A new Bretton Woods
Very interesting news, long overdue. What will be the roll of gold? Japan been stocking up on the ole AU?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 08:23 - ID#432148)
Lou_Jan - Try this one

(Mon Mar 02 1998 08:26 - ID#284255)
Offices' 1.2bn hidden cost of millennium

(Mon Mar 02 1998 08:30 - ID#31270)
If Chinese devalue
Any suggestions on an investment that would benefit from the devaluation?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 08:34 - ID#284255)
Gold... And The Coming Stock Market Crash

Just before the Chastisement proper falls, gold, it is estimated by Michael Haga, to possibly go to $3000 - $6000 an ounce.And if Clinton bans gold alltogether; then places the U.S. back on the Gold Standard--it is felt he will in many of the bearish financial newsletters, gold will go to $50,000 an ounce!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 08:41 - ID#398105)
Donald__A (Did the nightcrew miss this bombshell?)

And what has old Soros suggested for the last ten years ?!

You can print paper money, but dear old gold can only be its' humble self.

The question is - does gold go up to what level before the "new" currency system is put in place.

The other issue is - who is going to lead from the front. Surely not the USA ?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 08:43 - ID#411259)
..... Up..Up..Up .....

Gotta' like that silver. It should be a fun week.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 08:58 - ID#411149)
HighRise- sure do agree with your post of 23:44 and other repeats
after that. That is the reason I own some of the shares you refer to.
When this thing does turn those are the shares the public will buy
first. I have owned ECO at 8 and sold at 85 once, the next time
will be better than that. and if Jeil is right might be able to pick up some at 50cents.

Tally Ho

(Mon Mar 02 1998 09:03 - ID#258427)
Ray...I am out of ECO, but
I like to keep up with what's going on...what's this about picking it up at $.50???

(Mon Mar 02 1998 09:05 - ID#26793)
@Haggis, Goldbug 23
The story quotes "Mr. Yen" as saying that "Japan expects to make a contribution both financially and intelectually". We know that Japan has problems but they still have plenty of cash, enough to be considered a rich country. On balance, government, corporate and the general public, I think they are richer than most developed countries including the United States. Mr. Hashimoto has already commented on the value of gold reserves over dollars. Perhaps that will be his intellectual contribution.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 09:09 - ID#26793)
Gee Notnick, I can't think of one ( grin thing ) .

(Mon Mar 02 1998 09:18 - ID#398105)
Donald__A (@Haggis, Goldbug 23)

Lets hope so.

I would tend to think that Japan has to act sooner rather than later - sooner as they still have the clout: later, they may well be truely up the creek with no paddle.

So, we may well have the Asian Block, the Muslim/Arab Block, the Russians/Chinese Block, the Indian Block, the African Block, and the European Block ( including the Brits ) - ALL wanting to go for gold.

The Americans - all they have to do is revalue their gold from US$25 per ounce book value, to........something sensible.

Looks like when it happens, there will be a HUGE rush.....or sould I say - A GOLD RUSH !!

It is rather interesting that even today a fair number of gold properties that I evaluate really have not had much work done on them since 1890-1912. the period of gold exploration and mining since 1985 until the present has only, again, scratched the surface.

How long will it take ???

(Mon Mar 02 1998 09:19 - ID#187218)
Limited Liability Partnership
This was the year I finally convinced a friend to enter into an agreement regarding a LLP. It had been many years in the making. The LLP was to invest primarily in PMs and related PM stocks.

Just received a phone call from him that his company ( a large financial concern ) is placing him on "Special Assignment" which is a polite way of saying 'start looking'. They offered him a job in Europe but with no guarantee 'buy-back'. This obviously changes his plans to be a limited partner. This sux.

There is no justice in this world. This guy is highly skilled with numerous advanced degrees and he's being 'down-sized' from his upper management perks ( some would say that this is Y2K related,,,, yea-right! ) . My 'pea-sized-brain' brother-in-law ( knows nothing except how to make calls to have a memorable dinner party BUT thinks he knows all ) makes his $125K/yr salary and has just been offered a promotion,,,,, what a world!

Anyone interested in being a partner,,,,,,, hmmmmmmmmmm!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 09:19 - ID#284255)
Extreme but gets the point home - chaos
60 - And 500 - Year Cycles
The End Of An Era

(Mon Mar 02 1998 09:34 - ID#197309)
GC J8 volume,
pretty brisk to say the least,46.600 and growing,lots of action!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 09:34 - ID#398105)
Looking to buy or rent a Kilt ?

The things I do for you ...........................


(Mon Mar 02 1998 09:34 - ID#340459)
Dow opens South

(Mon Mar 02 1998 09:38 - ID#411149)
BillD- go back and read his post just after midnight. He says that
gold shares will lose 80% of their value [they done done that]. Also
states that he might have been DRUNK! I hope so, drunk, that is.

Tally Ho

(Mon Mar 02 1998 09:39 - ID#328159)
DROOY- and all other gold mines- Radiation Hazards
Some information about the seemingly little-discussed radioactive hazards of the gold industry:
This is by no means a situation necessarily unique to Durban Roodeport Deep, or any other mines in South Africa; I suspect it to be a natural
world-wide phenomenon, although most of the evidence on the Net seems
to be from S.A. sources.
Gold and Uranium, both heavy metals, go hand in hand
as the name "East Rand Gold and Uranium Company Ltd" ( Marshalltown )
would suggest.
A July 1997 report of the "Electronic Mail & Guardian"
called "The gold fields' radioactive ghost",
- See -
described how "radioactive contamination way above
international safety limits has been uncovered
in the heart of the Free State's gold fields..."
Uranium is a by-product of gold production.

I have personally determined that a small piece of Durban Deep
mine ore, placed next to a geiger counter, registers
about 50% above local background radiation.

A 1994 "Weekly Mail & Guardian" report
- See -
describes how "a gold mine on the West Rand has contaminated
a nearby wetland with radioactive materials, according to a
study carried out by mining consultants."

The bottom line? As environmental concerns intensify, the pressure on gold mines to control hazardous waste, especially radioactive waste, which is a great bugaboo, may increase operating costs. How will this affect the so-called low cost new leaching processes? Could it narrow the gap? Might this be a factor in future gold mining costs that could increase the cost of production, which would ultimately raise the price of gold?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 09:52 - ID#225273)
Haggis; kilt

Thank you for that info. As providence would have it, I am in the market for a kilt. I was just telling some people at a party the other night that I wanted to wear one in downtown Atlanta and see how it went.

The Preacher

(Mon Mar 02 1998 09:55 - ID#368244)
Gold Stocks headed south
BMG - 11/16 , thats abig down move!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 09:55 - ID#341189)
China takes steps to meet BIS requirements - $32.5 B bond issue (S&P estimates bad loans at $540 B)

(Mon Mar 02 1998 10:05 - ID#225273)
Isure & BMG

I think you got a bad quote on BMG. My machine shows it down only 1/16.

The Preacher

(Mon Mar 02 1998 10:09 - ID#187218)
CJS,,, radioactive man
Thanx for the info. I'd venture to say with the global environment is high on the priority list for Al Gore and that this problem could only get worse ( from a stock investor standpoint ) . However, the POG will sore if they can't get the 'booty' to market. So physicals versus paper,,,,, hmmmmmmmmm ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

(Mon Mar 02 1998 10:09 - ID#368244)

Has now corrected, now shows -1/16, sorry for bad info.

The Hatt
(Mon Mar 02 1998 10:10 - ID#294232)
As Normal New York Puts Downward Pressure On Gold!
Today should be interesting as the price capping team continue to keep pressure on the yellow stuff. We need to decisively break through three hundred today, which would reverse the offensive line up! lets watch!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 10:16 - ID#410114)
gold lease rates
Gold lease rates over 3% today. Go gold!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 10:24 - ID#26793)
Pressure in the banking system today.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 10:38 - ID#238295)
HATT: If gold lease rates stay up, we will break $300 with conviction very soon even if we fail to do so today.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 10:40 - ID#225273)
Ray & Lyndex

As you can see, things are heating up in the gold market. We have talked about Lyndex Explorations before. I think this is the last chance to get on board.
I think they've been drilling but not telling anyone because of the low gold price. CEO told me they had some huge bids Friday. The bid and ask have each risen .03 today, now .25/.28
I doubt we'll see this price again.

The Preacher

(Mon Mar 02 1998 10:44 - ID#341189)
interest rates
I spent some time this morning listening to CNBC ( not a very wise use of time ) and heard their perpetual discussion of interest rates. It's always the same - the Fed will do this or that. I don't hear anyone even hint that interest rates are moved by the demand for money. Or am I just being old fashioned?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 10:57 - ID#345176)
@ mozel re: 02:56 Risk of IRA accounts

Mozel, I also see big risks on Profit Sharing accounts. In addition to market and liquidity risks, one may be faced with some heavy taxation on withdrwals, similar to the risks of IRA accounts mentioned in your 02:56 post.

I suggest that those who are retiring soon or have just retired, to deplete Profit Sharing and IRA accounts first.

Goverments love to take from those who have to give to the "needy".

(Mon Mar 02 1998 10:58 - ID#266105)

This article is one of the best I've seen in layman's terms that explains how susceptible
we can become:


'Zactly. Covering with accessible clarity the things that
crossed my mind with respect to basing entire modes and means
on a single grain of sand. If history serves guide, I suppose
one could expect some millenial madness to heat up in contagion.
Things like anthrax paranoia, maybe even the popularity of X-Files
and similar bunk. But this Y2K thing is starting to sink in to me.
In talking with the blues band lead guitar, who happens to be
systems administrator at the local hospital in his day job ( where
my wife works ) , they're just now forming a committee to address
both in house and network ( insurance, drug and medical suppliers,
Medicare, etc. ) problems. Me no like.

The Hatt
(Mon Mar 02 1998 11:00 - ID#294232)
OLD GOLD You Are So Right!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The pressure out of New York is just winding the spring that much tighter and the task of keeping the pog down is becoming more difficult by the day! Rising lease rates could have a devastating effect on the shorts.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 11:05 - ID#340459)
Can anyone suggest good gold stocks under C$ 2.00, Any suggestions will be greatly appreciated, I
Thank you in advance..

(Mon Mar 02 1998 11:09 - ID#334219)
Why do you limit yourself to gold stocks below $2.00 ? It is an error to believe that it is easier to make $$ with pennies than it is with $2-$3 or $5 stocks.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 11:11 - ID#233199)
Where to find Gold lease rates please..????

The Hatt
(Mon Mar 02 1998 11:11 - ID#294232)
MIDAS_A Take a Look at Claimstaker on the VSE!
Two properties within 6 months of production with would you believe Standard Bank, yes Standard Bank behind the financing. That in itself gives this debt free Company credibility. Just a thought. Trades in the mid $.20 range! Could be a real winner!

The Hatt
(Mon Mar 02 1998 11:18 - ID#294232)
Dow Up 10 Pts Bonds Getting Thrashed!!!!!!!!!!!!
It is hard to believe that so many investors refuse to listen to all the warning signals that may suggest the top is near. That is why I feel the Mutual Fund Industry will go up in flames shortly after the meltdown. These Fund Managers will be blamed for the next crash and rightfully so! Would still like to see disclosure on whether or not their personal investment dollars are in the fund or elsewhere? That would answer many questions for those that have bought into the idea funds are the only way to go!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 11:20 - ID#153102)
Yes, that kind of exposure will have adverse consequences. Better to lose all your feathers or even those and a wing now than still be a captive fat duck when the taxing crowd is hungry for dinner.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 11:24 - ID#225273)
Midas & gold stocks

I know several good ones under C$2.00. Now you need to decide what type of stock you want. It's sort of like buying a wardrobe.
Do you want a three-piece suit or some upscale khaki walkin' shorts?

Do you want something that's short-term leveraged to the price of gold?
Do you want a penny stock with a market cap of under C$5 million that has very high leverage?
Or. do you want a development stock that's almost into production?
There is a veritable cornucopia of fine choices.

I mentioned Lyndex Explorations earlier this morning. The property is in Spain. LYDX had one million ounces when it began drilling last year. After some of the most spectacular drill intercepts I've ever seen, we now put that number at 3.2 to 3.4 million ounces.
The shares moved from C$3.50 to $18.50. Then they split the stock 20-for-1. Then with the collapse in the gold price, the shares are now down 80% or so from the highs and trade at C$.25/.28.
With 154 million shares out, LYDX has a market cap of nearly C$40 million. The gold, however, is still there. With a runup in the price of gold, it's destined to move much higher.
I think this is one of the better deposits in the world that is not in production yet. With a higher gold price, I see it as a likely buyout candidate.

Guyana Goldfields is another one. It trades at C$.68. There are less than 10 million shares out and managment is putting together a minable deposit in Guyana. It got as high as C$1.60 last September before the ruckus. I think it should surpass that this year.
GGFI came out with two excellent drill holes in January, so it's a better deposit now than six months ago. Drilling continues.

Aurizon Mines is only around C$.60. It has solid production and has been earning money until last year. Right now, it has bought a mine from TVX and this is a big project that will either make or break the company. But that won't be known for several months.
In the interim, it should really scoot during a runup in the gold price.

Exploations Mirandor looks to have the makings of a minable deposit. Kinross has signed a $14 million joint-venture to develop the Nevada project. The stock is currently C$.47 and looks to be breaking out. Kinross is supposed to begin work there today. But I'm not sure if that's drilling or other work.
BTW, last year, MIQ hit 27 feet of 15.5% copper along with minable amounts of gold in one hole. That's what got my attention.

Hope this helps.

The Preacher

Gold dust
(Mon Mar 02 1998 11:25 - ID#431206)
Take a look at Sonoma Resources ( SNA ) on the VSE trades around $.23 and look at Arizona Star ( AZS ) which trades right around $2 both excellent companies with a handful of good reasons to own them.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 11:25 - ID#342282)
Preacher and Hatt
Where can I get details on Lyndex and Claimstaker -- finance and properties. Thanx. Preacher, working on reply to you.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 11:30 - ID#345176)
@ all

XAU positive now.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 11:40 - ID#187218)
Y2K ,,, AND,,,,,,, I'm glad we are being informed on this,,,,,,
My subscription of "The Economist" expires Nov 2000. What will I do if I don't get it that week since: the news correspondants won't be able to report stories with the telephone network oscillating on unknown frequencies; these frequencies will contribute to the spectral energy signals in the atmosphere and serve as a catalyst for additional acid rain that our children will not be able to survive; autombiles will be choking on unregulated fuel that was un-verified by governments and thus contain an amount of octane that is less than desirable for the Wankel engine; people will be barricaded into shelters and not able to supply reportable incidents to make news except for the occassional cannibal stories that have been reported due to the global food shortages; computer's at the editor's desk will have eaten its own brain and those around it; there's concern that some highly sophisticated computing networks in the news-room have found a subroutine that forces them to emulate the HAL2000; global positioning systems and air-traffic will be causing mass chaos and forcing governments to ground ALL air traffic both military and commercial; with military aircraft grounded the BAD-GUYS will act up causing additional looting, chaos, and killings on an apocolyptic scale that will mirror armegeddon; postal services in every corner of the earth will be shut-down since tracking systems are not functioning; and my door will be bolted shut and not accepting parcels since I am so engrossed in reading Y2K URLs that will be telling us how this is the end of the world as we know it.

Prepare now and hoard gold so that when the smoke clears and the SAGES tell us how the world was saved within the 3 glorious weeks of January 2000 by the "Super-High-Intensity-Team", herein known as "SHIT", we will be able to refund them for their insightful efforts. Your grandchildren will ask: "What was it like in those days, grandpa ?". At which time you may reply: "I can only quote Cicero my boy when he said 'The sinews of war; unlimited money' ".

Sitting around the campfire telling stories of the old-days will have new meaning. "Let me tell you, my dear grandson, how it was like when computers were flawed and programmers worked independent from government and SOMA was not yet introduced; when men thought with their brains did not submit their duty-card for verification; before the work houses,,,, before the collapse":


To summon the engineer or not ... that is the question.

Whether in this legacy of Babbage's fertile brain
Some errant, failing part may yet be found
That thwarts completion of my ill-starred run
And makes a mockery of production schedules.

Or in the cryptic logic of that troubled task,
An ancient algorithm exhumed from dusty archives,
I failed to set a switch, initialize a laggard subroutine,
Or overlay a segment of the miserly core.

Perchance, the dozing Operator, sleep bereft,
Bestowed with leaden hand an unsought aid,
And made himself the author of this mountainous dump
Whose octal mystery shrouds an endless loop, and puzzles the mind.

Aye, there's the rub.

For in that chartless realm of ill-conceived branches and motley patches
A mortal swain could scare his earthly wits sustain.

For who would bear the double-talk of manuals,
The analyst's wishful celebration,
The deadline that fall a week before,
The bellowing salesman's mendacious pitch,
Or files forever lost or scratched when he, himself
Might yet his final End-of-Job attain by surreptitious alteration.

But that the thought of no recurrent paycheck must give him pause
And send him back again, with darkened mien,
To curse anew a damned and down machine

Oh, BTW--- This is a WetGold: Copyright 1998.

The Hatt
(Mon Mar 02 1998 11:46 - ID#294232)
Chas here is a phone number for cln!
once you have done your D.D. let me know what you think!

The Hatt
(Mon Mar 02 1998 11:47 - ID#294232)
Sorry chas forgot the phone number!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 11:52 - ID#187218)
Very useful information on mining stocks that I will use.,,,,, thanx!,,,,,

(Mon Mar 02 1998 11:54 - ID#372262)

Midas--Take a good hard look at Vengold ( VEN.T, VENGF ) . Each share is the equivalent of one share of Lihir Gold one of the largest known gold deposits in the world! This stock will triple when gold moves to $425.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 11:59 - ID#286230)
THE GOLDEN PROPHET: Do you have a typo in your VenGold post? If not which one will tripple? Does Vengold have any property of it's won?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 12:00 - ID#286230)
that's -- own

(Mon Mar 02 1998 12:01 - ID#187218)
TVX really took a dive this year,,,,, bottomed out or what ?

ALL: Why are prices of so many mining stocks in low-figures; penny stocks. I was at an event this weekend and someone ask me for a recommendation at which time I described some potential in mining stocks,, I had a willing participant with a bent ear BUT when I mentioned some prices,,, he was gone and wanted to talk of Eli Lilly or Coca-Cola..

(Mon Mar 02 1998 12:02 - ID#345176)

(Mon Mar 02 1998 12:07 - ID#340459)
Thanks all for suggesting good gold stocks to me, Appreciate your help and
experience. Thanks..

(Mon Mar 02 1998 12:08 - ID#227290)
Claimstaker & Lyndex

I've not heard of Claimstaker before. I looked it up on my online service and the listed number was 306-763-7071. That's not Vancouver, so it might be the CEO's home phone. Whatever.

The number at Lyndex is 416-363-3933.

As for Sonoma, I'm very friendly to it right now, although they have nothing going on. I hear they will do another private placement in the near future.
You see, the company has C$4.2 million and an annual meeting coming up. Sometimes, there are people who will try to take over such a company. Management wants to load up on shares to beat off any potential challenge.
The stock should be good for a small pop after the private placement, but I can't see exactly why anyone would want it right now otherwise.

The Preacher

(Mon Mar 02 1998 12:10 - ID#57232)
Gold at the Crossroads - which way?
IDT: Appreciate your F Veneroso post. In a nutshell, it states that SEAsia has been selling gold big time, and that plus the European situation is why gold went down to $280/oz. As Old Gold has said several times, hard times in SEAsia mean gold sales. If China devalues or Japan implodes, more gold sales will occur, pushing gold down. A European or South American financial crisis could push gold down for the same reasons -- namely that you buy gold when you are worried about the future and can afford it, and sell it when you need food and shelter. During the crisis, few people can afford to buy gold.

The other side of the ( gold ) coin is that during a currency devaulation, the price of gold goes up in that currency. Hence, the price of gold in US dollars is likely to go up eventually, but the real driving force will not exert itself as long as the dollar is perceived as the currency of last resort.

So -- we have two conflicting forces at work -- the real likelihood of another downward push on gold - coming from SEAsia, and a later rise in the price of gold when the dollar weakens. My guess is that the US will be affected last in this crisis, so we need to be on our toes for additional downturns in the price of gold. As long as the current world wide deflationary process occurs in a 'rolling' fashion, rather than in a one-time 'meltdown' my guess is that gold has bottomed in US dollars. The pressure to build up an Asian - only currency, and even the EURO is also mounting.

I think I'd rather have those inflationary times of the 70's when it was easy to invest in gold. Now -- one must have a wary eye out for the next deflationary gold 'fire sale'.

Keep your powder dry -- we may test $280/oz yet again when China devalues, or the 'currency flu' spreads.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 12:11 - ID#316193)
Useful Comments

(Mon Mar 02 1998 12:13 - ID#227290)
Wetgold, TVX, & penny stocks

TVX is a major and I don't really follow majors as to fundamentals, but only as to technical analysis. Sorry I can't be of help there.

As to why penny stocks are so low, it's because with gold at $300 and copper at $.77, very few mines in the world have any value except the speculative appeal that things might get better in the future.
And how many investors truly believe the gold market is going to get substantially better? Not many.
So, these penny stocks have little or no value and there are few willing to speculate they will become valuable.
Ah, but there is the opportunity to pile in before the crowd. We think the gold market will get better. We think gold deposits will become valuable. And so we think the exploration stocks will be looking for a valuable commodity that can build worth for shareholders.
When others finally come to that realization, they will buy our stocks from us at substantially higher prices.
At least, that's what I hope will happen.

The Preacher

(Mon Mar 02 1998 12:15 - ID#345176)

For those who think gold will soon be above $350 these are the stocks to own:

(Mon Mar 02 1998 12:17 - ID#153102)
You associated my screen name with your tolerant views on the Keynesian ideas of debt currency and deficit spending. Please do not do that any more. It is a complete misrepresentation.

trader ed
(Mon Mar 02 1998 12:18 - ID#373349)
Elliott Wave Projections
The present move up in the near month gold futures will be contained in the 302 to 304 area. This will be followed by a zig-zag move down to the 285 area, before another zig-zag move up to 315 to 318.

The S&P 500 futures are very near a temporary top which will be followed by the first minor correction down to about 1000, a move down of about 5%. The first minor corrective wave up, which is the direction of the trend may take it to new highs.

The T-Bond futures are in the midst of the first major corrective move down after the recent highs. They will move up to above 123, before starting a zig-zag move down to around 119. The eventual low of this major corrective move will be down to around 116, before going up to new highs above 125.

If anyone is silly enough to trade my projections, they deserve what they get.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 12:18 - ID#187218)
@Preacher,,, thanx for your response to TVX and pennies,,,, BUT,,,,
what actually happens with those who DO invest,,,,,, we buy THOUSANDS of shares as opposed to HUNDREDS. The same money is invested but more ticks on the account statement. So from an a corporate standpoint,,, may cost more in overhead,,,,, from an investor standpoint,,, if may allow us to feel better about the amount of ticks we maintain since I could hardly afford 100,000 shares of LLY of KO.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 12:21 - ID#187218)
@Myrmidon,,,, good post
Recently picked up CAU and now will consider some of these picks to add my cache ,,,, thanx!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 12:27 - ID#269409)
@ PM's
Silver & Platinum Are our friends.....

(Mon Mar 02 1998 12:43 - ID#269409)
This metal's jumpin....(sung to the tune of "This joint is jumpin..)
Monday March 2 8:06 AM EST

Silver jumps

By United Press International

The spot price of silver is sharply higher in moderate-active trading ( Monday ) in early
European dealings while gold inched higher.

Traders said silver rallied in a continuation of the surge in prices seen at the end of last
week as a further rise in lease rates offered the market support.

Dealers said the anticipated release later this week, by Warren Buffet's Berkshire
Hathway, of details of its holdings of the metal will provide the market with its main

Gold was also slightly higher, it too having been helped up by a firming of lease rates.

Gold opened $1.60 an ounce higher in Zurich at $299.85 but opened unchanged in
London at $297.25.

The London morning gold fixing was $299.75, up $2 from Friday's close.

Silver opened 22 cents higher in Zurich at $6.61 an ounce and opened 20 cents higher in
London at $6.62 an ounce.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 12:46 - ID#197308)
must be a tech rally if gets up past 80.50 prob. trend rev.
question is ,I thought they had it piled to the ceilings,
who's buying just short covering or commercials,anyway it
is a encouraging rally for goldbugs,because the biggest bad
rap on gold is there is plenty of it ( ala copper ) go GOLD !

(Mon Mar 02 1998 12:50 - ID#227290)
jman & copper

Glad to see you're watching the copper story unfold. I don't know much about the fundamentals driving it right now, but I saw the turnaround formation last week. It is very nice to see follow-through today.

If we can break the February high of 80.50, like you say, we should then see a fairly substantial rally. There are a lot of deposits around the world that a higher copper price would help greatly.

The Preacher

(Mon Mar 02 1998 12:51 - ID#20136)
for those that didn't see this post earlier..
Gold Demand Trends

1997 Highlights: Full Year

Developing Markets

Total: Moved over 2000 tonnes for the first time ever, rising 13% to 2129 tonnes.
Continued growth in Middle East, India & Latin America more than offset soft
demand in the Far East.
Asia: Demand totalled 742 tonnes, down 10%, reflecting economic and currency
crisis in several key countries during the second half. Renewed growth in North
Asia was offset by the weakening in South East Asia.
Middle East & India: Record demand of 1280 tonnes, up 33%, driven by
continuing growth in India, Turkey and the Gulf States.
Brazil & Mexico: Total demand up 7% to 107 tonnes.

Developed Markets

Total: Rose 1% to 806 tonnes. Continued growth in the US and renewed upturn
in Europe balanced against further weakness in Japan.
Jewellery: Eased 4% to 628 tonnes. Modest progress in the US and Europe, up
2% and 5% respectively, offset by further deterioration in Japan.
Investment: Up 32% to 116 tonnes as lower prices stimulated progress in the
US and Europe, with consolidation in Japan.
Dental: Maintained 1996 level at 62 tonnes, based on solid progress in the US.

4th Quarter 1997 Highlights

Developing Markets

Total : Q4 demand 491.3 tonnes, +4% vs. Q496.
Asia : Demand in Q4 of 127.3 tonnes, -35% vs. Q496 as SE Asian economies hit by financial crisis. China, Hong Kong & Taiwan relatively unaffected.
Middle East & India: Record Q4 demand at 327 tonnes, up 37% vs Q496.
Brazil & Mexico: Consolidation of Q4 demand at 37 tonnes, equalling Q496.

Developed Markets

Total : Q4 demand 262.2 tonnes,+8% vs. Q496.
Jewellery : Totalled 208.5 in Q4, relatively unchanged ( +1% ) vs Q496.
Investment : Q4 demand more than doubled Q496 level, reaching a 2-year-high
of 38 tonnes reflecting brisk trade in N America and Europe.
Dental : Q4 demand moved 9% lower to 15.7 tonnes reflecting softening of
demand in Europe & Japan.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 12:54 - ID#246224)
Feels better when ..
silver goes up a few cents per day rather than $$'s. Gold pretty firm. I do not quite understand why all the focus on lower ASean demand and sales in 4th Qtr when India's demand increases more than adequately absorbed those sales. What am I missing here? We just look at bad news?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 12:54 - ID#238295)
Chinese devaluation?
JTF: Still it's a question of if not when as regards a Chinese devaluation. But such an event would be quite negative for the yellow -- no doubt about it.

But let's not forget the European CB. The level of gold reserves and the rules governing future sales by national CBs will have a big impact also. As well shifting perceptions re: US ability to call the shots economically, financially, militarily, and politically.

My $320 first half projection implicity assumes no Chinese devaluation or only a small devaluation. But a big devluation probably would postpone $320 until summer.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 13:02 - ID#401460)
Preacher - Remember The Numbers / Volume!

Some things we all should remember:

The % of the population between the ages of 46 and 56 is massive.

These same people have driven all markets for the last 50+ years.

They had a lot to do with Golds last big surge - they still have the rings, coins, and chains in their lock boxes.

They new the value of Gold then and will be quick to recognize the value in the future.

Just as the Dow has been driven to new heights by these people, Gold and Gold mining shares will be driven upward as they rotate out of the Dow.

The laws of supply and demand will rule as never before. There is a finite amount of Gold and Gold mining shares.

If just a small % of this Age group try to buy Gold the markets will be overwhelmed by the demand.

Even the cheap ECO, RYO, TVX, stocks will be in high demand. They will appreciate at multiples that boggle the imagination.

The past few months have shown that the markets are churning and investors are rotating from one type of stock to another.

It wont matter if only a small percentage are able to rotate into Gold and Gold mining shares, we are talking about millions trying to buy millions of shares and ounces that dont exist.

The Gold market is already depressed, therefore I am not sure it will collapse when the Dow retreats again. Investment dollars have always eventually sought out the best value and this time will be no different.

There are many clouds on the horizon, it is just a matter of time now.


(Mon Mar 02 1998 13:08 - ID#269409)
@ Allen...Gold in SE Asia
Allen, to provide ever the contrarian point of view, one reason that action in SE Asia is bearish in spite of increased worldwide demand is as follows;

One of the prime tenets of GoldBugs is that financial meltdown's ( Such as we've seen in Asia ) will drive buyers to Gold, thus driving demand and the price much higher.

In fact, just the opposite happened in the currecny crises we've seen. The folks who are distressed became sellers of Gold, not buyers, in spite of the fact that their Gold became more valuable in their newly devalued currencies. What does this do to the whole thesis of economic disastor's driving people to Gold? We don't see it.

In fact if anything, we've seen increased Gold purchases here in the U.S., driven by "bargain" prices and diversification from folks who have made a bundle in stocks. Warren Buffet and other's of his ilk come to mind......

This is the paradox of today's market. Gold may no longer accurately viewed as the "Safe haven" to which investors will flee, in the event their financial world comes crashing down, and on the other side of the coin ( St. Gaudens of course ) , some of the newly wealthy paper fiends are diversifying into hard assets like Gold.

I'm not so sure that a U.S. deflationary collapse, coupled with a stock crash, would cause any rise in the price of Gold. Perhaps just the opposite. It'll be slowly falling DOW, and runaway inflation, that'd bring Gold back to it's glossiest shine...

(Mon Mar 02 1998 13:09 - ID#390249)
Gold update - CB and fund activity
The attached update is very interesting. A CB made delivery on a gold sale last year and didn't roll over a large gold lease position creating a shortage in unallocated gold. Net short positions held by funds rose from 21,269 to 33,446 lots over a two week period ending Feb 24th.

I can't figure this market out.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 13:11 - ID#342282)
Hatt, Preacher & Myrmidon
Thanx for info. will get back as details permit

(Mon Mar 02 1998 13:21 - ID#252127)
$223.141 billion in external reserves

What country holds such a hoard ( of paper ) ?
The open purchase of gold would certainly hurt the value of US Treasuries that many foreigners hold here, but if Frank Venoroso is right???.... that a huge dishording of gold has taken place in Korean, Thailand and Indonesia, do you wonder where it is going.
Are the flows of this reputed dishoarded gold monitored? Think about it and spell......... J-A-P-A-N........... imho ( in my hopeful opinion ) .

(Mon Mar 02 1998 13:26 - ID#57232)
Keynsian Ideas? No - more like Hayek.
mozel: I do not believe in the Keynsian philosophy toward inflation of the money supply, and I am disappointed that you think I do, even if I said that I worry more about massive debt than mild inflation. Inflation does not cause depressions, but massive debt does, and that is what we are all about to face, sooner or later. That is not pro-Keynsian, as I recall. I do not see conspiracy most of the time -- just ineptitude and shortsightedness.

I am really disppointed that after all this time -- you think I believe in 'tax and spend' and the goodness of debt. I believe in the Hayek approach toward money -- but you have been posting over a relatively short period of time on Kitco, so you might not know. If I were a Keynsian I would have to lose my mind to read Kitco posts. That would be like BC communicating with Matt Drudge.

What you probably do not realize is that Alan Greenspan is not like most Federal Reserve chairman that we have had -- do you recall what he wrote about gold in those Ayn Rand days? So -- I give him the benefit of the doubt.

That is what I was doing with those posts yesterday. I was talking about the Fed as it is under his leadership, not what it was like in the 20's when the Fed leaders were incompetent, or any other time up to AG's leaderhsip.

I guess you have forgotten what I said about the US standard of living, and that it is dropping since 1968, due to the Keynsian economic approach, and that our national debt is due to the Keynsian approach. Taxes are too high, and discourage degt, not savings. I agree with you that the 'aquisitors' are stealing us blind. I just don't agree with you as to who the acquisitors are, and who controls the purse strings -- a moot point. I would not place all of the blame for all of that on Alan Greenspan, who just told the world that 'a currency board would be as good as the gold standard' for stabilizing a currency. A bit of a stretch, but can you name one other Fed Chairman who kept his job who said something publically like this? He is doing the best he can, I think, and he may be the only senior financial person in our government who is doing ( most of the time ) the right things.

If you think I am wrong, why don't you petition to have AG removed so that BC and the US Congress can run the Federal Reserve? If you think things are bad now -- give our Congress the power to print money as well as to spend it. If you are successful in removing AG, I will be leaving for a safer place to live.

I will probably share New Zealand with aurator, which is incidentally rated as the most desireable place to live in the World according to James Earl Davidson. We are becoming much too socialist for my taste, mostly to government over regulation, and 'tax and spend'. When will we need three jobs each to make ends meet?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 13:28 - ID#197308)
Preacher,look at copper,
if it breaksout could be nice maybe retrace above 100,
best looking chart formation Iv'e seen in a while,over 80.00already

(Mon Mar 02 1998 13:44 - ID#342282)
Hatt and preacher
Re claimstaker for the moment. Talked to PR man because Chf Geologist was out. Standard Charter standing by till POG increases. Then at about 320 the deal supposed to go thru. They have an 888 236 5200 #. When I can talk to geologist, I'll report.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 13:46 - ID#342282)
Claimstaker re sorry
I forgot -- fully diluted at the moment about 18 mill shares out

(Mon Mar 02 1998 13:50 - ID#269409)
@ Y2K....SchmY2K....Real world example here
We received some more charge card orders recently in our home based business, where the card expiration date was XX/00, yep, the terrifying 2000 expiration! Ohhhh vewy scawy.....

These charges flew right through with NO PROBLEM whatsoever, duly credited to our merchant account. When I called our credit card processing service, they told me that VISA / MC / Amex / member banks, anticipated issue this long ago, already upgraded the card processing systems, they're working great, and that the news reports on Y2K causing global finanacial meltdown, are greatly overhyped / overdone...

Just a thought from a semi skeptic. I think it'll be a mutli week, minor blip in January 2000, that'll have little or no real impact on financial markets, other than hurting corporate profits a bit, due to costs of resolution.

Let's remember that the financial world has been "computerized" for only a very short time. 20 years or so. We still have 2 years to fix the problem..... Even normal upgrades, "attrition" of networked systems will solve some of it. Most computer hardware/software, has such a short lifespan before obscolescence these days, that 2 years is practically enough time for a whole new generation of systemic upgrades anyway!

Not saying the effect will be Zero, just saying it'll be so small that any number of dozens of other potential scenarios could impact world markets a lot more than this overhyped Y2K problem will.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 13:53 - ID#246224)
I don't see your view as contrarian. The one scenerio that you discuss is not exactly the only goldbug vision. Indeed the 1970's scenario certainly would push the brilliant yellow to a more wonderful US$ level. There are other possibilities in which the yellow would shine well. Even Donald's deflation scenario has a rosy result in that the lower price of gold would still be much greater than the basement level of most other things; plus the tax implications of not paying tax on gains, etc. Its all comparative isn't it? ( BTW I'm not all that sure about the final play on this and have 50% of liquid funds in physical and 50% in cash. This can be moved very quickly into one position or the other as things become clearer. )

To my mind a subtle shift in investment demand ( in Europe and the USA ) would drain available gold supplies pretty darned fast. The aftermath of Asia's crisis ( which is not necessarily over yet ) may very well follow India's course. 1 Billion of some of the earth's poorest people, burned by currency instability crave the yellow as a means to offset their savings risks. Korea indeed knows the value of its citizens reliance on gold an will, IMHO, promote gold in the future. Japan also seems interested in gold as a reliable reserve ( see Hashimoto's June 97 comments ) . It is all very interesting and we shall see ...

As far as Equities, Bonds and Currencies I feel we are in very dangerous territory. There comes a time when, crash or bear, there will be a righting of these to their proper place via a vis real goods. But who knows when or how? Certainly there is 'One who knows mysteries and reveals secrets' ( Daniel 2:17 - 28 ) .

(Mon Mar 02 1998 13:59 - ID#269409) yer bets here.....
As to how many days until silver will broach the $7.00 level once again. I have my bet on Thursday....but's it's a "small" bet....

(Mon Mar 02 1998 14:01 - ID#255284)
Golden Power Cuts
You got ISP problems again? I sent you a detailed reply on the Home Brewing Kits over weekend, handy hints, kinda like Nick washing his car.

Look, old bean, I've apologised for sending in the Kitco Commandos to turn off Montreal's power when we were faced with the '98 bug on 1/1/98. It was just a dry run for Fort Knox. Now, plse call the Team home. Auckland needs 'lectricity. No 'lectricity means no computers means no work.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 14:07 - ID#255284)
whare = casa

my whare is your whare.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 14:14 - ID#26793)
BIG pressure in the banking system. Fed trying to force down rates.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 14:15 - ID#238295)
April gold up slightly, but lack of puch in gold stocks today suggests no decisive penetration of $300.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 14:17 - ID#287277)
Carl--Standard of Measurement/Value
Task--Define a Different P.O.V. for monitoring market/currecny/commodity
Well forget about price, because price, as now constituted, is virtual; well concentrate of the relationship. What is needed, is a STANDARD OF MEASUREMENT.

Spot [benchmark 3/2/98--Bloomberg]---Oil; 14.17--Gold; 299.65--Ratio--4.73%--
[5%]----Oils spot is approximately 5% of golds spot

Dollar price*Units/XDR--Oil; 19.05--Gold; 403.03; Gold/Oil--4.73%
[5%]---Oils spot is approximately 5% of golds spot

XDRs gold content, 3/2/98--0.0046;

We ignore price and Monitor the relationship. We ask:
What changes occur in what entities ( oil/gold/$ ) and what 'adjustments' are brought to bear?
Does any change in the pricing currency ( the $ ) occasion an adjustment in the Currency of Account ( XDR ) to maintain the ratio?
If the $/oil/gold ratio 'breaksdown' is it established in XEU? Cypress pounds? {:- ) ) )

[The XDR finds favor because the Islamic Development Bank is willing to transact therein...which, to my mind, means GOLD.] Your thoughts? bbl

(Mon Mar 02 1998 14:19 - ID#222231)
JTF, mozel, ECONOMICS 101,202,303404,etc.

The Economy

I define "economics" as "anything that has to do with our physical well-being,
whether it involves an exchange of money or not." Academic economics is only
concerned with money transactions, something which may be measured and
counted. I have little to say about this side of economics, other than to
advocate the full acceptance of John Maynard Keynes. No more "voodoo"
supply-side economics, which quadrupled the national debt during the
Reagan-Bush years. The 1997 tax bill is more voodoo economics, claiming to
be able to cut taxes while balancing the budget. Politicians will always tell us
whatever fairy tale we want to hear.

No administration has ever tried what I call the full-Keynesian counter-cyclical
policy of making taxing and spending adjustments to prevent depression and
inflation. It's not so difficult. It doesn't require a Ph.D. to understand this. It is
taught in every beginning class on economics. To even out the natural bumps
in the free enterprise business cycle, the government should raise taxes and
reduce expenditures ( sounds paradoxical doesn't it? ) during the boom part of
the cycle, running a surplus, something not seen for many years. During the
down side of the cycle, government should lower taxes and raise expenditures,
thus running a slight deficit.

There is nothing wrong with a deficit, so long as it is balanced in the average
by the surpluses. It is only this full Keynesian policy, scientifically rather than
politically applied, which can prevent depressions, reduce the depth of
recessions, and eliminate inflation. To learn more, take economics 101
( something President Clinton clearly understands, since he has halved the
deficit in his first administration ) . ( NOTE: SEE, DID'NT I TELL YOU GUYS THAT BC IS GREAT! )

The second matter of academic economics has to do with trade deficits. In the
economic textbooks, it says that unlimited free trade is better for all
consumers. The trouble is, we are not just consumers. We are also workers and
owners. And unless everyone plays the game of international trade by the same
rules, we may still gain as consumers, but this will be irrelevant, since all the
good jobs and the ownership of our businesses and property will migrate to the
more closed markets.

Our market is our own. We are not obliged to open it to anyone else. Those
allowed to trade in our market should consider it a privilege. And if a trading
partner has a market partially closed to us, we should close our market to them
in exactly the same degree, without negotiation. It does not matter how they
close their market; the Japanese have shown considerable ingenuity in this
regard. The last twenty years have shown the Japanese a way to become world
dominant without even possessing a fleet. Another twenty years of this, and we
will all be flipping hamburgers at McDonalds. On the other hand, if every nation
refuses to trade with the Japanese unless they open their markets, the
Japanese empire quickly collapses, since they must import raw materials.

The government must also take a much more aggressive stance regarding theft
of intellectual property. We should feel free to steal intellectual property from
those who steal from us. Turn about, fair play. As long as there are no negative
consequences, we will keep inventing things, like the VCR, and the Orientals
will keep stealing the technology, flooding the market at a loss until all our
own factories have gone belly up, and we will have gained nothing from our
own creativity. We should be quick to develop a new invention, so inventors
will not have to turn to the Japanese. And such developments should be
safe-guarded as if it were military technology. We should then protect that
market, until the industry is robust. Patents and copyrights are not sufficient in
a world where the Chinese, Japanese and Koreans ignore the rules regarding
such things. In short, the government should take a strategic interest in new
technology, as if the fate of the nation depends on Digital High Definition
Television and optical fiber, because indeed it does.

Free enterprise varies from country to country and from one time and place to
another. Theoretically, competition and the free market will keep it all running
automatically. But in practice, it doesn't. In the 19th Century, huge monopolies
developed, which then set their own prices ( high ) . It was necessary for the
Federal Government to step in. In the 1980s, corporate raiders ran rampant,
buying corporations with junk bonds, which were then paid off by dismantling
the company, and selling off the pieces. Eventually, most of these corporate
raiders ran afoul of the law. In the 1990s, the fad is corporate downsizing.

There seems something obscene about 40,000 workers in one corporation
losing their jobs, usually workers in their fifties and unable to find a similar job,
all to the self-congratulation of management, which votes itself huge pay
raises. Speaking of management compensation, why is it that American
corporate executives make two or three times as much money as their
Japanese or European counterparts? I could propose solutions to these specific
problems, but the general conclusion is just that the Aristarchy must keep an eye on the corporations. Occasional intervention may be required.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 14:20 - ID#26793)
Who is the "real seller" of T-Bonds

(Mon Mar 02 1998 14:25 - ID#390249)
Korean gold
I read earlier today that Korea exported $1 billion in gold in February. They reported their highest ever trade surplus of $3.29 billion so gold accounted for nearly 1/3rd of the surplus. In any event, this $1 billion equates to approximately 3 million oz and supposedly the Belgium CB refused to roll over a 3 million oz loan. Is it possible that Korea was shipping this gold back to Belgium? Being a neophyte, maybe my conjecture is way out there. Any thoughts?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 14:29 - ID#222231)

(Mon Mar 02 1998 14:38 - ID#36977)

(Mon Mar 02 1998 14:38 - ID#344205)
This guy BEAT the IRS in the 10th Circuit of Appeals!

Great on-line book by Bill Conklin
"Why No One Is required To Pay Taxes".
Recommended reading.
Downloads are available at

(Mon Mar 02 1998 14:51 - ID#36965)
CMAX and anti-IRS
There have been many who claim that there is no constitution requirement to pay taxes. Those who preach that and those who believe that are only kidding themselves. The constitutional argument has been made ad nausium and without luck in every case I have read. If there were no constitution requirement to pay taxes I would suspect that tax lawyers would have found the exact clause stating or implying such. As a tax lawyer I am amazed at the claims made by many book hawkers who seem to have discovered the prize that has eluded tax attorneys for decades and have kissed the tax blarney stone. My advice to you who would refuse to pay taxes, relying on a constitutional right to no pay, don't do it. The IRS can and may ruin your life. This is what I do for a living. If there was a way to keep from paying taxes I would quickly following that course and save myself $20,000 or so in taxes each year.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 14:51 - ID#269409)
@ CMAX...Nonsense!
Excuse me CMAX for pointing out the obvious, in case you've never read any news reports on this kind of thing, but this book you just recoimmended is just the latest in a series of similar discredited works, all of which have been based on the same premise.

Those who have followed up on reading such books, with personal action, have done so to their eternal impoverishment and destruction. Nice try though, none of us enjoy having our earnings confiscated, but becoming a sacrificial lamb so some whacko can sell his book, isn't in the cards for this weary taxpayer.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 14:52 - ID#36965)
LGB, I think we are on the same wavelength.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 14:59 - ID#359316)
Those Yahoo/Reuters articles on selling of Treasuries, as well as the ones on overnight RPs, are TERSE. Other Reuters articles do not hold off on the verbosity and analysis. One wonders exactly what they aren't saying...

(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:10 - ID#228100)
Y2K Issues - Small Businesses
LGB - If you have a small home-based business, you should check your PC HARDWARE for Y2K compliance. There are several free programs available on the Internet; here's one:

As long as you don't have a router or PBX equipment, and you can obtain "Year 2000 compliant" hardware and software for your business ( when and if they become available ) , YOU shouldn't have any Y2K
problems. Your bank may be another matter!

Basically, Y2K compliance must be analyzed at each of four levels: hardware ( such as CPU/clock ) , operating system ( Windows95 ) ,
application ( credit card processing ) , and data ( credit card records ) .

Also, please note that there are still Y2K "bugs" in Windows95, Windows 3.1, Excel, Access, etc. These "bugs" usually don't appear in simple calculations, but usually affect more complex calculations for amortization/depreciation/trending/etc.

Rather than review technical issues, look at it this way: If the Y2K issue were simple to fix, software companies would develop compliant products, then use compliance for marketing purposes. Why doesn't Bill Gates advertise: "Buy Microsoft Internet Explorer release 3.0 -- It's Year 2000 Compliant!"

Microsoft will not make any schedule commitments for Y2K compliant products. Instead, Bill has an army of programmers trying to resolve Y2K issues with Microsoft's products. If Microsoft doesn't have the resources to set firm schedule commitments, and then develop Y2K compliant software, who can?

Sometime in the next 21 months, this Y2K issue will impact the financial markets ( Especially PM's, I hope ) ...

(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:10 - ID#410198)
KEYNES another dead red white guy,thankfully

(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:13 - ID#222231)

(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:18 - ID#252127)
LIHIR GOLD reports 4th quarter profit

Based on the Lihir ADR which represents 20 shares of Lihir, the profit for the ADR would be $0.26 per ADR, which is not a bad start in a poor gold environment. The ADR sells for about $23 1/4 US.
An actual non-ADR share translates to about US $1.16.

Vengold VENGF sells at below $1 US and owns 10.3% of the actual Lihir float of 900 million shares.

Also McWatter's Kiena Mine work force has just begun to strike.

Charles Keeling
(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:18 - ID#344225)
Well--you certainly went way out on a
limb with your no problem Y2K bug theory.

You are wrong my friend. I agree it is not
going to be the end of the world, but it will
be for "some" businesses.

Info I have on 1 large bank in the Netherlands
is that 4,000 programmers are at work to solve
the problem. NOW---just extrapolate a wee
bit. There are not enough programmers to
go around to solve the problem for everyone.

Sorry LGB. Glad to see you so wrong for once.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:18 - ID#359316)
Reuters... allow me:
The following is a work of fiction. Any resemblence to real events might even happen one day:

Monday March 2, 2:16 pm Eastern Time

**US Treasuries steepen sharp losses early afternoon**

*U.S. Treasuries forge to new session lows in early afternoon.
*Key support level already broken on June contract.
*30-year yld seen broaching 6.5 pct.
*Gold up $10, silver breaks through $8 level

Sources reported large scale selling from key Japanese players. Some
cited Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's comments on 23rd June 1997: "I hope the U.S. will engage in cooperation to maintain exchange stability, so that we will not succumb to the temptation to sell U.S. Treasury Bills and switch our funds to gold." The sources said that this time, it was not a political move, but cash-strapped financial institutions desperate for liquidity before important financial accounting deadlines that forced them to liquidate bonds.

A US Treasury spokesman said "Many foreign interests hold our bonds. We will engage in constructive discussion with Japanese institutions to see if we can assist in some way so that unexpected disturbances to the financial system do not occur".

Any large scale selling of US Treasuries would make their increased yield attractive to investors, some of whom would be tempted away from equities.

Last year, Japan was the biggest holder of U.S. Treasuries worldwide with 25.1 % of US foreign holdings, at $321.2 billion on August 21st 1997.

US Treasury bonds are held by tbe Bank of Japan, and also as much as $US 1 trillion may be owned by the Japanese life insurance industry, which got into financial difficulties last year after the Asian financial crisis developed.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:25 - ID#318321)
Turks and Caicos
In Jeil's 02:38 post he mentioned setting up a Turks and Caicos Corporation. Does anyone know where I may find more information on this and what specifically are the advantages of doing this.
Thanks in Advance.

Good ol' boy
(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:25 - ID#26362)
High Rise, I was astounded at your naivity in stating that gold and gold shares are in finite supply. For all practical purposes, there is an infinite supply of gold and gold shares.

If you will reall ( how quickly we forget ) after Diamond Fields, Bre-X et al and others made their tremendous discoveries?, people concluded that gold companies were better than Las Vegas. To meet the demand, every shoe clerk in Canada started up a gold company. If you want gold shares, there are plenty available and with a stroke of a pen, countless milions and billions can be created with the stroke of a pen. The potential supply is infinite. Quality is a problem.

As for gold, there is plenty of gold. Admittedly, there is only som much, discovered and yet to be discovered, which can be produced for under $100 an ounce. There is more that can be produced for under $200 per ounce, still more at under $300 per ounce. But when you start talking aoout $4,000 per ounce, gold can be recovered form sea water and occurances all over this globe that are common. Gold is for all pratical purposes, in infinite supply. Quality is the problem.

This may sound like sour grapes ( and it is ) . I have several gold and silver properties available which will produce gold for under $100 per ounce, ready to be placed in production with good miners, miners who have worked for me in the past, ready to go to work and I am having problems finding the money to bring them into production. How so. Well in the U.S., there are few invesment banking types who know anything about mining. They will raise big bucks for major mining companies but have little interest in raising smaller amounts of money for smaller mining projects. The Canadians more or less have a lock on mine finance and all they are intersted in, for the most part, is exploring and promoting stocks. They are thicker than thieves and a Yank has problems breaking into this 'ol boy's club, particulary one who is interested in starting up mining operations without the obligatory feasibility studies based on several million dollars drilling which has drill proven a few hundred thousand ounces ( preferably more ) of gold. You could have a strong vein ( I have many ) defined on surface carrying excellent values per ton gold with some development extending it down and the Canadians would take a few years drilling before they would think of going underground even if the cost of drilling ( as it is in Mexico ) costs more than it would cost to develop by underground drifting. It is perplexing. For the same cost as it takes them to drill, I would have the mine have developed with sufficient production to pay the costs. The best way to explore a mine, if the conditions are right, is to drift on the vein recovering gold which will pay for the cost of developement. I have one little silver vein, 6" to 8" wide, which the Spanish mined on, cutting a slice out of a small hill, mining it down to the water table which stopped them. We have assays of over 1,000 ounces per ton and figure we can mine about 16 tons a day with two headings. The financial types say it is too small, there is no drilling etc. I have lots of such projects which won't cost much ( Some under $100,000 ) to start up where we can practically see making a million on so very quickly and they may get bigger, but the banker types and promotors want drill proven reserves. Most of the mines in this world were made before the drills were invented. Now with all the Scams, the investors don't know whtat to think and the Canadians are finding it necessary to have third parties monior or perform their exploration which further drives up the costs. Hell of a way to run a railroad. Sorry to unload on you High Rise, but you need to re-think things.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:26 - ID#269409)
@ Year2000
Thanks for info. For my own business, I do virtually everything calculation related in Excel/Office 97 on Win 95 platform. All the inventory tracking, invoicing, accounting, etc. are done with excel files of my own making, thus I don't anticipate any probs.

My only concern was with credit card processing, and of course my merchant account integrity. The first seems to be already under control as I mentioned. Re the second, my bank has told me they are already doing test routines, and are basically fully compliant already.

We always have our hard copy statements to fall back on, but of course I'll look closely at transaction tracking in Jan 00, to make sure all is going well.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:30 - ID#153102)
@Economics 101 @Pete @JTF
Neither of you have understood what I have posted.
Un-include me from your clueless chatter.

Good ol' boy
(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:33 - ID#26362)

(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:34 - ID#266105)
@have a nice day


(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:34 - ID#269409)
@ Charles Keeling...Y2K sky be fallin....
Well, time will tell, but I suspect that the Y2K thing will end up being more hype than disastor, though I don't doubt mucho bucks will be spent to fix the probolem before it occurs. Remember all the, very much hyped, April 1st, "virus that'll destroy all systems" scares and such we've had the past couple years?

Now, no one can even remember the virus included! What WAS the name of that virus that was suppsoed to bring the financial world to it's knees overnight?

Now as to 4000 programers for One bank in the Netherlands.... come now...that kind of number adds no credibility to the argument re Y2K, as it's obviously bogus. The stuff of urban myth......

(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:35 - ID#288260)
Local TV explaining how folks can go out and borrow money

and put it in using the "carry over" from years they didn't

put anything in their RRSP. Just imagine I go out borrow

money put it in a mutual fund lose my shirt and have all

that debt to carry.

Great advice as long as the markets go up. Maybe they

do go up forever.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:41 - ID#28585)
One thing that makes me even more cynical than I already am is the concept propounded by certain gold-bugs that "only numismatic gold is safe from government confiscation."

I consider this thesis to be one of the truly absurd notions posited by the ultra-paranoid visitors to this site.

Gov't confiscation of gold is probably as likely as gov't confiscations of other words, a virtual impossibility to effect given that the Pandora's Box has been open for far too many years and millions of people own physical gold today. Since Nixon opened the door in the Seventies, Gold ownership is no longer limited to a very small segment of the population the way it was back in the Thirties.

Bottom line: confiscation would be essentially impossible to effect on a mass scale. Those touting St. Gaudens and Liberty Double Eagles are primarily coin shop dealers trying to figure how to impart extra value to their inventories.

Thus spake FARFEL ( the Unpronounceable ) .

(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:48 - ID#318321)
gold confiscation
Farfel: They may try it just the same. People would then resist and not turn in their gold. Probably you would have a limited time to do so, after that it would be a crime to possess the yellow metal. Effectively there would be no market. You'd own the gold but couldn't do anything with it. Maybe a black market would develop. However I still think it is wise to keep the gold in hand.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:50 - ID#410198)
Farfel,as a dealer in numismatics I agree,supply and demand is the logic reason to buy numis coins

(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:51 - ID#334219)
Good Ol'Boy
You must keep the perspective. It may be easy to issue gold shares but still when you compared all that has been issued in the past 4 years, it is still peanuts when compared to the size of the capital markets. We are talking a few billions against trillions. When the boomers decide that they all want a few percent of gold shares in their PF...there will not be enough of them. As for the PM's you have located, maybe you should try to find a small canadian producer with cash and get into a JV. There are certainly a few that are searching for small 100K-200K ounces of low cost gold.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:51 - ID#269409)
@ Farfel...confiscations R us
As you know, I've been a promoter of "Saints" here, but it has nothing to do with confiscation. Like you, I think the Govt. would have difficulty explaining confiscation, since they've been in the "American Eagle" business since 1986 now, and promote Gold ownership on the U.S. Treasury website. ( So much for the Paranoid, U.S. anti Gold conspiracy theories )

The "Saints" plusses, have to do with a truly finite supply, a very small permium relative to historic premiums on this coin, and a Numismatic value floor that adds a safety margin. If you study these three issues carefully, you'll understand the benefits of owning "The World's most beautiful Coin design of all time"....

Unlike common bullion coins, when it comes to "Saints", they aren't making any more of these.....more buyers in the future, tighter and tighter supply, leveraged gains in an up market, resistance to declines in POG price

(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:56 - ID#410198)

(Mon Mar 02 1998 15:56 - ID#341189)
A little home made accumulation-distribution analysis of ABX and PDG
During Jan and Feb, ABX traded fewer than one million shares on 6 days. 5 of those 6, it was down. During the same period it traded more than 3 million shares on 12 days. 8 of those 12 it was up.

During the same period, PDG traded fewer than 1/2 million shares on 6 days. 4 of those were down in price. It traded more than 1.5 million shares on 10 days. 7 of them on up days.

I haven't done a chi square on these data for statistical significance, but there they are.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:03 - ID#222231)
Do you think we pushed him too far?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:05 - ID#269409)
@ Farfel....Pre 33, coins
Of course on the other hand, let me agree with you that certain NAMELESS Gold coin promoters, who are..umm...shall we say.....highly visible around here, use this "confiscation" hype as a selling scare tactic, catering to the paranoid.

The NAMELESS, high visbility dealer who does this ALSO charges way too much for their "pre 33" coins, and does not thus it's a buyer beware market.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:09 - ID#374211)
@ Heard on the Street....US$...Gold....US Bonds....Saudi Oil....Canada....
Johnson resigned as leader of Liberals in PQ, paving the way for a much
stronger candidate to oppose Lucien in future elections, it is all together
possible for the Liberals to win, most Francophones are "FED UP"
with the Quebec separation question, this would be very positive news
for the Cdn $.....War of the Titans on today, PPT vs Gold, April Gold,
as I suggested did manage to close above 300, a good show of stregnth
for a Monday....OPEC is waiting for the word from the Saudis before
calling an EMERGENCY MEETING in a few weeks....Higher Oil prices
on the way count on it, now that they are "buddies" with Iran...
The US military Complex is still trying to sell Bombings vs Iraq to
the American people and the world, trying to save face is more like it,
won't work.... The world can smell the US retreat....US Ass.Sec Treasury
Geitner is flying to Japan in a couple of weeks to attend the Asia
Crisis conference being held there, hmmm interesting....I have notice
recently that some posters here at Kitco believe that China will devalue,
why it was only a couple weeks ago we were being told every day
at least twicw a day that they would NOT, this also corresponds to the
speech given last week by AG when in the same breath and sentence
he told Congress we were in "Inflation" no wait "Deflation".this is the
so called "knife edge" wich has closed in terms of time to a few seconds
therefore I would be leary of statements like China will devalue and we'll
go into Deflation, simply because "they" do not even know the extent
of the damage the Asia Crisis has had thus far on the world economy,
I doubt "they" would risk a large devaluation, and let us not forget
thet Hong Kong $ which is tied to the US$....I believe we have entered another period of intense anti Gold activity, desperately trying to hold
confidence in the US$ and USBonds , putting stories out,. disinformation about massive Asian Gold sales from collapsing economies, IMHV
it won't work, the WORD is out!.....

stay tuned....

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:10 - ID#298259)
cmax and Tortfeasor

I bought Irwin Schiff's book..."How Anyone Can Stop Paying Income Taxes",
in 1982. I throughly researched what was written by combing through volumes of old tax code. Afterwards, I was convinced his argument was sound...the IRS cannot "require" anyone to "file" a tax return...however, there is a tax code law which "requires" the IRS to figure your tax for you if you don't file. I stopped filing returns for 1982 thru 1984 ( paid taxes for those years though ) . I got a notice from the IRS for penalties for failure to file a return in 1983... not failure to pay taxes mind you...and the penalty was on the amount that was suppose to be show on the return, regardless of the fact I that I had paid that amount.

I decided to fight the IRS in small claims court using the info in Schiff's book and actual copies of the IRS codes. When I was called to
testify on my behalf I started to read from a 20 page document I had prepared. The judge, not wanting anyone else to hear what I had to say
asked me to come up to the bench and said that we would meet in his chambers later that day. He also said my written documentation would be entered as testomony...yea, right... never was, only oral testimony which I wasn't permitted to present. Certainly wouldn't want to that kind
of thing to show up in court records.

What a joke in the chambers, two IRS agents, me and the judge. The judge
said I didn't act like a typical tax protestor since I had paid my taxes.
Outside the chambers, outside of the court room, in the hallway, the two IRS agents admitted that I had a solid defense...the IRS cannot "require" anyone to file a tax return... filing a tax return "is" voluntary.

After it was all over the IRS ended up owing me a $1300 tax refund. That
was also when I learned everything possible about Schedule A deductions - I was employed full-time but also a part-time grad student...lots of deductions for students.

Since I now file a return, I guess you could you say I lost my case, however I feel I won because it was extremely gratifying for me to prove to myself that the whole IRS is a scam. We never gave them the constitutional right to tax wage or investment income ( go gold ) or the right to require us to file a tax return. I now know that for a fact. Just one more abuse of power we are forced to live with.

PS The IRS went after Schiff big time for his book and the newspapers
said he was found guilty of fraud for failing to file and pay taxes and placed in jail.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:11 - ID#153102)
@2Bro2B Re: your interesting (but intensely intellectual) link
This hunger, this gnawing need passed in the genes from Father Creator to Posterity for life and to live it, for liberty under just law and independence in it, for negotiating from pleasure to pleasure in the pursuit of happiness unbounded, these inalienable rights of man cannot be extinguished though they be oppressed, for they are our human nature. Resist imposed organization.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:13 - ID#225273)
Good ol Boy & High Rise's comments
Good Ol Boy,

I don't think your refutation of High Rise's comments actually refuted what he meant, but was more of a rhetorical rebuke.
I mean, this being an investment forum, and not a scientific association, I think we can assume that most of us on Kitco aren't concerned that $4,000 gold will bring a limitless supply onto the market. After all, we will be wealthy beyond the imagination long before that point.
Also, your point about "every shoe clerk in Canada starting a mining company" is an exaggeration. And again, High Rise wasn't refering exploration stocks that have no property to explore when he spoke of gold shares.
He may want to speak for himself here, but I took him to mean that the combined value of gold mining companies of merit is less than that of some single corporations.
There are a finite number of gold shares that the public will pile into when /if gold moves above $500. Rhetoric won't matter then, those of us who are in now will have made a virtual killing.

I agree with you that American banks don't want to lend money for small mining projects. And all banks want drill proven results before they invest.
And, many companies drill just to sell stock, not prove up deposits that will actually be mined. ( I've invested in some of those along the way. )
So one trick is to find out which management teams are truly miners that want to find and mine gold; and which ones are paper runners that want to make noise and drive up share prices so they can sell and come back in two years and do it again.

If you're having a hard time getting financed for your silver venture, you might invest what money you do have in some highly leverage gold and silver shares now, then sell after a sustained rise in the price of gold; then you should be much closer to your goal of $100,000. Plus with the higher gold prices at that time, you should find raising the rest of it much easier, plus the sales of the product will reap more of a reward.

"Can you not also walk in the footsteps of giants?": ANOTHER

The Preacher

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:14 - ID#269409)
@ Farfel...Postus interruptus...Numismatic Gold
End of my last post truncated in midsentence. I was going to also mention that said NAMELESS high visibility coin seller of pre 33 Gold, does not give straightforward, clear, unequivical answers when it comes to such questions as "What's you're price today on M/S 63, PCGS Saints" and "What's your buy / sell spread" and "What's your normal markup", and "What is your price on raw Saints and do you guarantee they are truly original condition BU" etc.

When you come across this kind of dealer, that uses dubious scare tactics to sell their product, and doesn't deal "straight" with their clients, look elsewhere...

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:21 - ID#341189)
SDRer, Your 14:17
We agree that forgetting about prices in currencies and looking at ratios of prices of commodies and things ( where the currency unit cancels out ) , looks like a promising way to pursue this. However, your example of the ratio of oil to gold being the same in both dollars and SDRs is just an example of how the unit used, cancels out in a ratio. Notice in doing your calculations, the only difference is the application of the constant which converts dollars to SDRs. It doesn't matter what the constant is, it will cancel along with the currency unit in a ratio make up of those units. So, the ratio of gold to oil will be the same regardless of the currency unit used to express it as long as those currency units are all simply convertable into one another.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:24 - ID#243180)
LGB@13:50,,,, if the Y2K folks can yell with URLs,,, then,,, tit-for-tat,,,,,,,
A source close to CHARLES KEELING and YEAR2000 have told ABC-Newz ( that's "All Bug Central" ) that book publishers, authors, and contractors are offering several alternative theory posters jobs with Revlon in an effort to "Mask" the calming of the masses with a contrary position than the stated Y2K scare. Several posters were interviewed and adamently denied the charges.

Please do not read the following because it poses another point of view than we wish to disseminate,,, you are warned in advance and ABC-Newz bears no responsibility for your beliefs: ( usa.htm

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:24 - ID#286262)
Coin Dealers
The recent hype of the "Wells Fargo" horde by some dealers may be a good way to sort out the good dealers from the greedy. Those touting those high markup coins may be the least economical to purchase from. This is offered as a discussion point not as a definitive statement. What do the rest of you think?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:24 - ID#269409)
@ Frustrated...court system
Not to be unduly critical, but the judge in your hearing was not trying to "cover up" some "new" and explosive information on the tax system.

If you've ever been involved in a more serious court case, you'd know that no judge alive, would ever sit still for 20 pages of testimony of the type you wanted to present, in a small claims case. They dion't have the time to be so indulgent.

The judge wanted to settle your case quickly, seeing you were a good taxpaying cizitzen. No judge would allow arguing every point of constitutional law re IRS form filing, in a small claims court.

Try going back to not filing again, and see what happens.....

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:26 - ID#57232)
Economics posts whizzing back and forth -- Physics is much simpler and less controversial
aurator: Thanks for your kind words. I usually can converse with nearly anyone -- but -- my dad said never to discuss politics and religion in public unless you know who you are talking to. I think I will add economics. Keynes, Hynek and a few others seem to be blurring together.

I am going to stick to watching the gold market or buying gold coins, like any good non-Keynsian, heretic that I am. From my perspective all that matters is our common interests in salvaging as much of our economic system as we can, when the wave ( s? ) of currency debt crises finally reach our shores. All this discussion of who is to blame for what is a waste of time, and it is my fault for chiming in. I should know better.

Incidentally, saw that interesting post about fourier analysis of the gold markets by someone this am. I can offer a little insight into this.

Imagine a two-year graph of the Dow, and one does fourier series analysis of it. What one is really doing is repeating that two year period ad infinitum -- both forward and backward in time. One can then 'decompose' the dow signal into cosine series, or sine series of appropriate frequencies, the most appropriate frequencies determined by chosing the ones with the largest signals on forward ( frequency ) and reverse ( time ) integration. ThOne can do spectral analysis before one begins to choose the components of the sine waves, for example that you want to represent the signal. All that is required is that the sum of the signals add up to give the one you started with. Fourier analysis only works as long as the market follows a certain set of rules, and as the poster said this am, the rules can change.

Unfortunately, fourier series analysis is weakest at the current time ( now ) because of edge effects, so it has little predictive value. Ideally what one want is a 'fourier analysis' that ignores the edge in the data when the DOW changes from 8300 to zero one day in the future -- something that it always does, unless you wrap the data around the way I did be starting the two year cycle over again. That in itself introduces other undesireable frequencies into the data.

Wavepacket analysis is a way around this -- very hot -- but I cannot tell you how to do this, or whether anyone has done this well -- yet. But it is clearly replacing fourier analysis. What I find fascinating is that the wavepacket ( wavelet ) analysis has a quantum mechanical analogue, and also allows incredibly fast and compact compression of video images. We are seeing another information revolution in front of our very eyes -- of Nobel potential -- the Internet is only one of these revolutions. I hope to apply this analysis to the gold markets when I have time, and I understand more about it. Currently all I can do is pull out the Fibonacci series. Others know more. Nice to know I have a friend out there.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:31 - ID#252150)
Good ol Boy@Canadian Shysters
You are right about the Howe St. & Bay st. boys controlling the financing for jr au mines. Although they are a bunch of sleazy crooks, I must admit
that I derive some pride & satisfaction from the fact that there is at least 1 industry which Canadians can controll & out hustle their American counterparts.
We get screwed when it comes to fishing treaties, forestry products etc.,
but when it comes to au mining--we've got you by the short & curlies.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:38 - ID#341189)
I can tell you you have more than one friend out here ( :-}.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:40 - ID#246224)
Nice showing in gold and silver today.
Gold after heavy selling at open and prior to noon contiued its slow upward move to $300 ( +0.45% ) falling just shy of that mark at close. Silver also prudently advanced. A solid gain of 9 cents ( +1.38% ) over Friday's close. Soemwhat unexciting but foundation building none the less.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:40 - ID#246224)
Nice showing in gold and silver today.
Gold after heavy selling at open and prior to noon contiued its slow upward move to $300 ( +0.45% ) falling just shy of that mark at close. Silver also prudently advanced. A solid gain of 9 cents ( +1.38% ) over Friday's close. Soemwhat unexciting but foundation building none the less.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:44 - ID#57232)
Pete: I am going to stick with gold/gold stock investing, and none of the stuff I can't do anything about anyway. Glad to see you have a sense of humor -- that is an essential ingredient for any gold bug who expects to live long enough to see his/her efforts bear fruit. The next few years are going to be hard -- because we are talking debt deflation, not simple inflation. Any gold bug who is not nimble and quick to change directions, is going to get squashed.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:49 - ID#36977)
30-year US bond closed up (down?) at 6.024%, up 0.106 at its high yield for the day.
Looks like maybe Japan is selling bonds to raise cash?

Silver stocks have been flat to lower for the past couple of trading sessions while the spot price of ag has gone from 6.00 to 6.5x I noticed the same thing happened on the runup to over $7 -- anyone else see this?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:50 - ID#269409)
@ Allen..Silver
But notice that premiere silver mining shares, PAASF, and SSRIF both moved up 3% today! Nice move on both, and hopefully the trend will continue in an orderly manner now that the Buffet blip is past.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:51 - ID#243180)
A month or so ago I ask of application for Fourier Series/Transforms and wavelets as they realte to trading. You responded with a brief overview of what these mathematical conditions were. I have an extensive background in FS and FT, as well as, wavelets. JTF not knowing the background of WetGold I cannot blame you. Your overview was quite precious and short, good for the novice and casual observer.

NOW: I've recently read an article in "Stocks & Commodities" which discusses FS and FT as they realte to financial charts. My background with these tools are in direct relationship with Electrical Engineering principles. I am not a professional trader NOR am I in this business. I do it to make money and have been doing that for quite some time.

Knowing this information, could you provide me some insight as to some reference material that is available to meld my current knowledge of FS and FT to that of the professional trader, analyst, or specialist. Looking for application of principle including some theoretical development.


(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:52 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.53 ( This is not a new high )

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:52 - ID#36977)
30-year US bond closed up (down?) at 6.024%, up 0.106 at its high yield for the day.
Looks like maybe Japan is selling bonds to raise cash?

Silver stocks have been flat to lower for the past couple of trading sessions while the spot price of ag has gone from 6.00 to 6.5x I noticed the same thing happened on the runup to over $7 -- anyone else see this?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:57 - ID#280215)
From what I could tell, those biased towards a gold bull were saying three weeks ago, that the next week was supposed to be an interesting week. Two weeks ago, the next week was supposed to be an interesting week. Then last week, this week was supposed to be an interesting week. What's the consensus, will this week really be interesting for those who feel the gold bull is awakening, or will it be another boring bust. I hope it does something either sharply back down to tthe 280's or sharply up to the 320's. This market has been something else, but the last three weeks have been the most boring I can remember.

Glenn: you bring thoughts from the trading floor. What's goin on down there? Is it a bearish or bullish or a who cares attitude right now? A while ago you said that things seemed to be different this time and that you were the most optimistic in a while. Do the conditions still give you an optimistic tone?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:58 - ID#36977)
30-year US bond closed up (down?) at 6.024%, up 0.106
Close was at its high yield for the day. Maybe Japan is selling bonds to raise cash?

Silver stocks have been flat to lower for the past couple of trading sessions while the spot price of Ag has gone from 6.00 to 6.5x. I noticed the same thing happened on the runup to over $7 -- anyone else see this?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 16:58 - ID#36977)
30-year US bond closed up (down?) at 6.024%, up 0.106
Close was at its high yield for the day. Maybe Japan is selling bonds to raise cash?

Silver stocks have been flat to lower for the past couple of trading sessions while the spot price of Ag has gone from 6.00 to 6.5x I noticed the same thing happened on the runup to over $7 -- anyone else see this?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 17:01 - ID#153102)
@Good Ol Boy
The tale you tell, I think, is one facet of something very wrong.
In my experience I have seen too many instances of the best, the most productive and efficient, being disfavored for the inferior that it seems to me something systemic. The dominating influence of Wall Street and the advantages granted to the corporate form of business organization always seem to be at or near the source of this dysfunction. Corporate socialism is becoming indistinguishible in many respects from state socialism. And a tendency to promote the political over the productive is one of them.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 17:02 - ID#410194)
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after trading today:

Gold: Unchanged at 480,010 troy ounces

Silver: Fell 637,399 troy ounces to 89,457,865 -A 15 year low

Copper: Rose 1,370 short tonnes to 113,650

Silver inventories have a hard time getting back above 100 million ounces in the Comex warehouses ( not too mention the 90 million level lately ) , last year at this time, there were close to 200 million ounces in stock!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 17:02 - ID#243180)
Wavelets,,,,, fyi ,,,,,,,,,
I read a book by Barara Burke Hubbard last year that is a perfect overview for those interested. The title is "The World according to Wavelets - The Story of a Mathematical Technique in the making".

(Mon Mar 02 1998 17:04 - ID#269409)
Used cars
Would you buy your bullion from a place that runs ads like this?

"We are now taking advance orders for "THE FOOTSTEPS OF
GIANTS: The Inside Story of the Gold-for-Oil Deal that Could Rock
the World's Financial Centers" -- a collection of the remarkable and
mysterious internet postings of "ANOTHER" with commentary and
analysis by Michael J. Kosares, author of The ABCs of Gold Investing.
Advanced copies are available at the pre-publication of $25. Reg. Price
$34.95 "

(Mon Mar 02 1998 17:06 - ID#341189)
This "analyst" says higher lease rates indicate Central Bank selling. ??????

(Mon Mar 02 1998 17:06 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .251

(Mon Mar 02 1998 17:10 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 45.55

(Mon Mar 02 1998 17:12 - ID#258129)
Dow/Gold and Dow/Silver ratio's
I have posted several charts yesterday with ratios between S&P 500, Gold and Silver. One of them was not trivial, so I made the similar calculations with Dow. Result was practically the same. Attached chart shows dependence between Dow / Silver and Dow / Gold ratios. This chart is not usual time series analysis, but gives static picture: on X-axes we have Dow / Silver ratio, while Dow / Gold ratio is plotted on Y-axes. With growing of Dow / Silver ratio above approximately 1700 dependence between two ratios is broken - it shows horizontal line with Dow / Gold ratio approximately equal to 26.5 IMO that means, that after certain point usual dependence between Gold and Silver prices is not there anymore and all Gold / Silver ratio calculations are not applicable.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 17:13 - ID#153102)
Jeil is not the only student of the gold market who foresees $250 before $350. I saw it today in a fund letter.

JTF: thanks for your posts on the study of cycles using mathematics and other topics. I meant no offense. You just associated my screen name with a total misrepresentation of my views.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 17:16 - ID#298259)
Althougth I had 20 pgs of written testimony it would have taken me about 10-15 min. to present it ( mostly exhibits ) . I think the judge was more concerned when I first spoke of my rights as a citizen. So your argument that the judge was not willing to listen to a long winded dissertation on the tax code law isn't valid. I guess the two lawyers for the IRS who told me in the hall that the judge would not enter my written testimony into evidence because of what it contained were just playing with me. They even took thier valuable time to send me the court transcripts after they were released.

Have you actually gone back and read the tax code laws? Believe what you want based on what you know. BTW how does the judge know I was a good little tax paying citizen. Since I didn't file for 3 years, how did he know if what I paid is what I owed?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 17:41 - ID#28594)
Carl--My thanks
Your point about Currency Constants duly noted ( not the first time you've pointed this out to me--don't give up! {:- ) ) So--to work!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 17:55 - ID#338289)
WetGold, LGB, Charles Keeling: Y2K, Silver
WetGold: No URL's today. Just poppin in and out of my favorite playground that I don't get to visit much anymore. No URL's but go take a look at Tort's message at 14:51 today. Now there is a post that the vast majority of us can read and nod our heads vehemently in agreement with. By the time this Y2K thing is over most of us will nod their heads in agreement just as much when someone that gets on here and tells us about their latest Y2K nightmare.

As we get closer to the dates in question I hope everyone is paying attention. If those of us that are Y2K alarmists, like myself, keep our ear to the ground well enough we ought to be able to provide enough early examples of failures that make you rethink your position a bit and hopefully encourage you to start to making some plans. As for me, all my plans will be in place by that time ( early next year ) . As hard as it is, that's why I have given up most of my lurking time at Kitco and other joyful pursits, so I can work on 2 projects at once. And if I'm wrong about the whole thing, then I can laugh about it until we need 9 digit dates when we get close to the year 10,000.

WetGold, what is your take on Federal Governments general ability to be ready by 2000? Have you read much about what's going on with Medicare processing? How about the nuclear reactors that generate about 20% of the nations electrical power. Do you feel confident that the NRC is not going to shut some or all of them down prior to 2000? How about the international scene? How do you see Europe taking care of both the EMU and Y2K requirements at pretty much the same time?

LGB: Comparing the Y2K problem with that virus thing is like comparing someone who is about to find out he has an unoperable disease with someone that may or may not have the latest flu bug that is going around. Please don't compare apples with oranges.

Charles Keeling: 4,000 programmers?! WOW! I have a hard time swallowing that one although I've read that Bank of America does have 1,000 programmers working on their Y2K problems. Could some of those 4,000 programmers be working on the EMU specs?

Silver: Cheers all, and good trading. Go Silver! I think we are in wave II and we are going to bounce off the downtrend line at about 6.75 ( May 98 ) . I'm looking for that eventual 5.50 area that APH mentioned and will load up like there is no tomorrow at that point and below.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 17:59 - ID#57232)
Please list your questions - that would be simpler!
WetGold: I also look at Stocks and Commodities - great magazine! I could recommend math books, but I don't think that is what you are asking. As I recall, you are an engineer as well -- Chem E, or EE? Why don't you look at the article ( what month? ) and make a list of specific questions? I think that is the best way, as I suspect you know a great deal about Fourier analysis, but not in regarding how to apply it to the gold markets.

By the way, some of the Stocks and Commodities terms are rather confusing, such as the term 'stochastics'. It is hard for someone who is formally mathematically trained such as myself to decipher what this means, as I have been taught that a stochastic process was one that was essentially random.

If you come across anything on Wavepacket analysis, and its application to prediction in time series analysis, please let me know -- I can sense something very powerful -- but I know something is missing from the standard analysis. I may have to do some programming -- hard for me to find the time these days with my day job that puts bread on the table.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 18:10 - ID#36977)
Silver stocks lagging spot price
Sorry for the multiple posts.

After reading LGB and Allen's posts I thought I was daft. Take al look at the numbers, please. Prices are daily close, as best I could interpret them from the Yahoo 3-month charts:

1/28 6.11 15/16 9 1/4 4 7/8 1.60
1/29 6.09 1 9 1/4 4 1/2 1.60
1/30 6.24 1 9 1/2 4 1/2 1.50
2/2 6.33 15/16 9 3/4 4 1/2 1.46
2/3 6.66 1 1/8 10 3/16 4 1/2 1.50
2/4 7.24 1 5/8 11 1/4 5 1/16 1.70

As much as a four day delay to changes in spot price! Now look at the last few days:

2/24 6.32 1 1/4 9 1/4 4 1/4 1.48
2/25 6.03 1 1/4 9 1/4 4 1/4 1.46
2/26 6.15 1 5/16 9 7/8 4 1/4 1.40
2/27 6.49 1 5/16 9 27/32 4 1/4 1.54
3/2 6.58 1 5/16 10 1/8 4 3/8 1.52
Change +9% +5% +9.5% +3% +4%
Silver is up 9%, and except for PAASF, these stocks are nearly flat. Anyone want to bet that tomorrow, unless Ag tanks, that these will be UP!?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 18:14 - ID#269409)
@ RJ....paging RJ....Coin reporting requirements...
RJ, recall the conversations we've had here on coin reporting requirements, and your statements that there are no benefits to the pre 1933 Gold, over the "bullion" coins.

I'm wondering what you think of the accuracy of the below statement in the website promotional pitch of a certain NAMELESS dealer who states the following..quote;

"Pre-1933 $20 gold pieces have become a very important addition to most gold portfolios. Exempted from the gold
confiscation of 1933 and exempted from the 1985 federal reporting requirements, this item offers privacy protections not
available with bullion coins. For the privacy minded, we recommend at least half your gold holdings be in this form."

(Mon Mar 02 1998 18:20 - ID#287358)

what is the major cause of major quakes on the
left coast? el nino........add pressure to a
system--water weight---and what happens?
snap-crackle-and-pop--------temblor soon.

samething with gold.....the downward pressure has
created an equal upward pressure....wait till the
break-out will be measured on the richter


(Mon Mar 02 1998 18:27 - ID#34883)
I try to always read your posts, appreciate your input, thanx.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 18:41 - ID#269313)
If memory serves, the supremes threw out the Marijuana stamp law on the grounds that paying for Marijuana stamps would tend to incriminate the purchaser. So there is a bit of precedent in case law. Similarly, another 5th amendment case apparently says that felons can lie on the "yellow sheet" when purchasing firearms, tho honest citizens cannot. So there may be some legal reasoning behind 5th amendment-based "failures to file". Perhaps enough that the feds don't want to risk a serious court case if they can avoid it. OTOH, ya still owe the taxes.


(Mon Mar 02 1998 18:42 - ID#39845)
Gold patient flatlines it, but patients status upgraded from critical to stable.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 18:50 - ID#242249)
Big Chief I think your are right ON.
I think your are right for the next big tremor in California will be as effective as shsking a one big Jello cake...Watch out bellow.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 18:54 - ID#57232)
A little market followup
All: The dollar was down slightly, but the yen was up 2%, and cryo up 1%. Sure looks like the Japanese ( and others ) are selling dollars, and buying Yen. Is this reflecting a rally in the Nikkei? Given the dramatic change in the Yen and the minimal behavior in the dollar, the idea that someone else is buying all of those dollars isn't that crazy after all, is it? If US interest rates are not changing, those dollar purchases must be achieved by some subtle method that does not affect the money supply. How about the national debt?

Is there anyone who understands the currency/bond markets? What is going on? If we are printing money, that is bullish short term for gold -- if we are boosting our debt -- the inflationary effects ( I think ) will be delayed for some time.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 18:56 - ID#269409)
@ Frustrated....your incredible TAX breakthrough
OK, let me see if I have this straight. Your small Claims court judge immediately realized that your 20 page document of evidence, was so explosive a tax code breakthrough, that he needed to immediately supress it from the public.

The judge somehow realized this without even HEARING that complex 20 pages of evidence ( which of course would have taken only 10 minutes to present, as such a complex constitutional "breakthrough" issue would certainly need no more than 10 minutes to explain... )

The judge realized ( after NOT hearing your evidence ) that you had made this incredible breakthrough in tax code interpretation, which had eluded all the Tens of Thousands of Tax Attorney's and Tax Accountants that had spent millions of hours on this before you came along.

The judge also knew that it was up to him, a lowly Small Claims judge, to immediately initiate a "cover-up" of this explosive info., shielding it from the public record so that civilization as we know it, would be saved. Thus he pulled you into chambers so that society would not catch wind of this info and quit filing their returns.

Hmmm, the IRS agents and the judge must have been mightily relieved when you agreed to accept a puny $1500 refund without going "public" with this stuff and exposing it.

If I were you, I'd write a book and go on "Oprah", after all, she is into "meaty" stories ya know!


Don't forget, check with the Survivalist Patriot groups on another excellent constitutional interpretation breakthrough. Namely, U.S. Federal Reserve notes are not really money. Thus you can write your own checks against a made up account, and pay your debts off with this "money" and it's just as legitimate as if you had actually deposited the funds in a bank!!

Of course all these judges are also keeping this all a secret from us every time these folks are prosecuted...for fear we'll all do the same.....

(Mon Mar 02 1998 18:58 - ID#31868)
There is nothing forgiven about a lie. Ever. There is no forgiveness in me for that which lies. So sayeth, Kevan Sarkis Khanamirian...My heart is dark for the liars lips.

Done, I shall live by these words.

Forever more I am bound and this is truth. Love does have limits which it is yet to learn, hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

I will not cause pain to anyone...ever...You Kids,, thank you for allowing me to know your thoughts...

Thanks, much, I need a dip in the brine.......................

(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:07 - ID#26793)
During March Japan will do everything to keep stock prices up that it possibly can. Japanese banks are allowed to include their stock holdings as capital. The BIS capital standards test is April 1st.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:16 - ID#201238)
WetGold answer
WetGold - if you will send me an email, I will direct you to someone who can answer your questions on math and markets as only an EE could.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:17 - ID#269409)
@ Tyro...Silver stocks
Tyro, maybe I'm just feeling contentious today ( OK, definitely then ) ..but I'm confused by your posts re silver mining shares.

Silver bottomed in July at $4.22 and hasnow gone up to the $6.64 level. Roughly a 57% gain.

In this same precise time frame. SSC went from .64 to 1.31..which is a 100% gain! Similarly, PAASF has seen an close to a 100% gain from the $5.50 to $10.12 level, and Tolerant's FSR has seen a 100% ++ gain in that same period. Only SSRIF has lagged with a 50% approx. gain.

What am I missing in this picture? Should we not look at the long term and view this market from it's bottom in July? If I'd have bought and held silver mining shares at the bottom, I'd be a pretty happy camper. Certainly they've outperformed bullion, though it's doing incredibly well.

And as to little movement lately, SSC has drifted down lately, partially to offset the absolutely EXPLOSIVE move it made after the Buffet announcement. When it went up a full 68% IN ONE DAY !!!!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:20 - ID#57232)
Donald: I had heard about that -- but it did not register. But it still could be that the Japanese are propping up their market with the Yen they got by selling dollars. But -- if there are only 10 Japanese banks that statisfy IMF requirements, aren't they throwing alot of money down the drain? Something does not 'compute' as HAL9000 would say. My guess is that any crises are expected to wait till after April 1. I wonder, do the Japanese know what we Americans think of April 1?

Anything about South America? SDRer reported some US banks buying out some SA banks -- that is one way of erasing debt from your books -- just buy it if you can. Only works for a while if the problem is a big one. I think South America is next -- a month or so?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:22 - ID#201238)
the earth always trembles
Cherokee - the earth is constantly in motion, for its crust is like slabs of ice upon a pond stirred by a gentle breeze - moving, grind by each other, running into and over each other, but always moving. The moisture of The Child may add some lubricant, but not much, The pull of the sun and moon may add a trigger, but you can only trigger something that is ready to go off - like gold.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:23 - ID#365216)
Prepare for Y2K; even if it doesn't happen, you'll be prepared for job loss, hurricanes, etc.

All of these items have inherent value and will probably
appreciate in value even with a rosy economic scenario.
However, if Y2K, stock market crash, war, terrorist attacks,
hurricanes, tornados, snow storms, or any number of other
disasters strike, you will be thanking God that you had the
foresight to prepare for the worst ( while still hoping for the
best ) . Your family and friends may one day be counting on you
as one of the few who were proactive in their preparations.

I hope and pray that we will ultimately flourish as a country
but we must be prepared for hard times that may exist in the

May God bless all us Kitco-ites, our friends, and families.

That is all.

The General

(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:23 - ID#242249)
To all
As some of you already know , Ted and me had a little discussion in the UNITED NATION Offices.

For this forum `s sake we escaped the site and fixed the turmoil on E-mail in a very civilised WAY.

Well Ted is now my friend!!!

We have to set our pattern as an example to fix wounds outside Bart`s site.

How everybody feel since the last three days?

No HEPCRAP style fixing......Don`t you appreciate?

Do you think this site is more and more attractive for TOP of the notch peoples to come here and participate!!!

Ted is a thrue gentleman.

He understand how the mustard bowl went up to my nose.

We will be together a kind of model for futur boxers on this site.Instead poluting Kitco we meet more privately and we will in real time

with ICQ , a MARVEL...for free:


(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:28 - ID#255190)
What I really want to know is ..
do you sincerely want to be rich??? I just love that line! Here we are all waiting for the rocket to take us to the sky. These little days seem so UN inspiring. But before ya know it a few weeks go by and you've got a 10 or 20% gain. Real solid, very firm foundation.

Mid April will clarify the EMU/Euro picture which will clarify the gold picture enormously. I say about 15% gold reserves; some from the member countries and some from the market. That'll juice the markets up a bit. It would just be the funniest thing in the world if the European CB's planned this whole thing ( "CB's selling gold" ) in order to make getting the added reserves much cheaper, no???

Asians gonna get up-itty. They know they have been had and will have none of it any more. They will move swiftly to establish a local trading currency, probably a basket of currencies adjusted regularly. This will release all the dollars that have been tied up in intra-asian trading. This will put upward pressure on these currencies ( help stabilize them ) and downward pressure on the dollar ( will help return parity ) . Where will those dollars go??? Back where they came from.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:28 - ID#369174)
LGB@Confused and Silver Spot Leading Stocks
Yes, you are right. The stocks did do better than spot Ag in the long run. It has been stated on this forum that gold stocks lead the spot price of gold, and I am seeing evidence of the opposite of that with Ag/Ag stocks, namely that the spot price LEADS the stock prices. The large jump in SSC came about 3 or 4 days after spot silver had taken off, similarly for the others. Is this a one-time event? Possibly. Sure would make trading easier if it were the rule rather than the exception, tho'.

BTW, I agree with your position on taxes and other "Patriot Mythology." I'm sure that RobNoel could give us plenty of details.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:29 - ID#257136)
LGB-W(h)acko book sales!! Your 14:15 post!
Whyncha read the U.S. Code ( fed law ) re: Income tacx before you go off 1/2 cocked.
Until you have studied the subject, you're merely parroting gubmnt Bu** Sh**!
BTW- The Book referred to is free. Except for the labor, time and electricity ( depreciation on'puter ) ! Better ya shud reed the entire post b 4 ya go off into one of your tirades from the ol' irrational LGB days!!
( ( %+^} ) [

P.S. I actually appreciate your posts on metals -maybe 'cause they indicate the actual knowledgfe you have concerning them!
Stick to what ya KNOW!!

Mike Sheller
(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:31 - ID#347447)
The Earth HAS its CRUST! Your 19:22 positively POETIC!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:32 - ID#57232)
Must go home!
Arden: I like your response to Cherokee. The fundamentals always apply the market forces - eventually. The tidal ( and other ) effects only trigger, such as the remarkable connection between the Solar eclipse and the current short term gold market rally we are in. I think this rally will continue for a while -- unless we have another currency devaluation gold fire sale.

The offline approach to WetGold's request is better -- and even better from someone with his background. I will be glad to assist if asked.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:34 - ID#222231)
How about sh%$#&*t!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:37 - ID#369174)
BBL - Dinner Time!

Mike Sheller
(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:37 - ID#347447)
LGB, my brother, do you still hold your SSC? I have mine. I believe we bought it around the same time. I rate it still a HOLD. Did you see my latest Astrological Investor feature on CNPGF? It even startled me! I know how much you follow astrology. ( ;- )

(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:39 - ID#206358)
JTF!Some gold scenes here...!

I found your post 2/3 ( 12:10 ) was very interesting.Some points to support your's view.

Since the INDONESIA in very troubles,many black markets gold bars sold in the markets. ( no refinery com register name ) .Normally,the price was just simply state,depand on the demand and sellers.No commmisions,no premiun and other charged.Its much advantage for the time being.Thailand and malaysia govts too not encouraged the citizen to buy ornaments,instead selling to help the economy!Buy the paper,save more in to the banks...!With this,the markets out of the $.The businesss down,cut jobs,.....bankkrupts..!

just briefly...

(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:42 - ID#269409)
@ a.j....
May I freely admit to ignorance when it comes to expertise in the tax code. I don't proport to be an expert, nor do I need to study it and get a Tax law degree, to understand that the courts have already interpreted the code sufficiently, such that anyoine who thinks they are going to get away with not filing or paying, no matter what "breakthrough" they think they've achieved in their studies, is a Moron. And such folks, if they put their money where there mouths are, will be very POOR and beleagured Moron's when the IRS and the Tax court get through with them. This has all been tested many times in the courts, of this I am fully aware, expert or no.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:45 - ID#57232)
Logging off!
All: You all might like to know that the facility where I work will be Y2k compliant in about '6 months' according to our computer expert's report today. The main problem is not the mainframes, which are up-to-date. The problem is with the many embedded chips in various pieces of equipment. Someone has to hunt all of these chips down.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:46 - ID#374211)
@ Heard on the Street cont'd....Iraq...SE Asia....
Most of tonight's US News broadcasts lead off with the "what to do about Iraq" question, it is becoming evident that the US has lost face
and much more....Rubin mand Henke were on the money show, Rubin
saying everything is ok, Indonesian needs to adhere to IMF plan,
not yet ready for currency board....BUT economist Henke who is
advising Suharto said, Indonesian is looking to adopt IMF PLUS,
they want to take the IMF $, stabilize the Rupiah by currency board
with reserves of US$ and he hinted REGIONALcurrency backing from Brunai et al, as well as baking and commercial reforms under same
currency board system, the difference in holdings would come from
buying call currencies options and " DEBT RESCHEDULING" hmmm...
An interesting proposal from Republicans who want to scrap the
current US tax code, and BTW do away with home mortgage
deductability, whis is one of the most important pillars of the current
rise in US markets, since many ordinary people have borrowed from
banks on their mortgage to "bet" on the markets, all tax deductable of course....

Mr. Mick
(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:48 - ID#345321)
Tolerant - you aren't leaving us, are you?
Sounds like you are ready to jump off a bridge. DONT DO IT!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:50 - ID#269409)
@ Sheller....
Congrats on the SSC shares, and your recommendation. No, sadly, I own none of the shares though I made some plays in it that made excellent gains when it was rising. ( Missed out on the Buffet move though! )

I've been trying to buy some SSC for days but I keep trying for too low an order, so no buy exercised yet. Maybe I'll just bite the bullet and place a market order this week. I bet it goes up tomorrow!

As to the Astrology comments... where's my stepchild paddle? ( OK bad taste you stepkids.. )

I'll pretend you said "Astronomy" and ask, have you seen NASA/JPL's latest photo's of Europa and further evidence of sub surface oceans? Excellent stuff... the satellite will be looking closely at some other Moon's over next 2 years also... I wonder if they'll find STeve Puetz on Ganymeide? ( I been looking all OVER for him! )

(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:54 - ID#57232)
Secret gold currency trading? Must log off to visit with 'real boss' at home.
Jin: Do I understand you currectly? Have the Indonesian people set up a black market where gold is traded as a currency? Very interesting! That also means that much of the gold did not leave Indonesia, but is in hiding. I guess if you are using gold as currency you do not pay a commission, or taxes, do you? That is an excellent sign, isn't it? The people now recognize the value of gold -- probably always did. Now, if only the American people understood this -- that gold is the ultimate backup currency.

All you need to do now is link up with this market, and your skills will be appreciated again. Can you do that without risking life and limb? What do the authorities do to the the gold currency traders in Indonesia? Take care!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:58 - ID#28585)
If you don't buy your SSC shares now, you can be certain they will get away from you.

FARFEL ( the Unpronounceable )

(Mon Mar 02 1998 19:58 - ID#269409)
@ DRP...your 18:31
Now look here said "If memory serves, the supremes threw out the Marijuana stamp law"

I'll have you know I've been a fan of the Supremes ever since I was a kid, and they NEVER sang no songs about throwing out stamps about Mary Ju Wana!

( OK OK sorry to all, this is what happens when they put me on heart topic whacko posts.....I'll be quiet now )

(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:00 - ID#234218)
Y2K compliance
For what it's worth, I checked with some of the places I do business with, as well as where I work. My credit union and and the bank where my wife has her account, will both be Y2K compliant by 10-1-98. Both are small and the bank is locally owned.

I work for a branch of the Feds that projects budgets and material 3 to 5 years in advance. Many of the systems are already compliant, and the systems I primarily work with will be compliant in 3 to 6 months.

My feelings, from what I can determine, is that there will be problems, but nothing catastrophic. ( IMHO )

Steve in TO__A
(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:02 - ID#209265)
tortfeasor, lgb, anti-tax, et al.
There's a guy, Karl Kleinpaste, who hasn't paid tax since 1994. you can go to to have a look. He's not using the 5th ammendment/constitutional approach.

The IRS can collect income taxes legally in DC, from all federal employees, from all corporations, and from anyone who works as an employee of a corporation. They have never been given jurisdiction over individuals who are not employees of a *corporation*. There are a few more issues, but look at the pages. The IRS has not provided proof of jurisdiction, and he has not been successfully summoned by them, so everything is still unresolved.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:04 - ID#269409)
@ Steve in To
Uh Huh..he'll get away with not paying his taxes due to his cleverness....yeah.....and Bill Clinton "Did not have an inappropriate relationship with that woman"

(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:05 - ID#257136)
To all and sundry who in lieu of rational argument based on knowledge
would prefer to demean and vilify others with slavish intellectual hyperbole:

As a younger person, I learned the futility and danger of saying things on the phone or in print which were I face to face with the one being besmirched or derided I would never consider!
I have made a point of never cursing another, though I may call attention to proven ignorance and poor manners aS WELL AS TOTAL DISCOURTESY.

I believe one of the things I like best about this paerticular forum is the gentlemanl conducy of the majority.

In my studies of socialist dogma and doctrine, I learned early on that one must expect to be met with all manner of defamatory language as well as hyperbole, usually not even related to the point under discussion when dealing with the products of government funded and controlled education!

I am so grateful to see the better parts of most posters come to the fore in their entries!
To those of you who are gentlemen, I salute you!!
To those of you who care not to be recognized as men or gentlemen, enjoy life. May yours be always interesting!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:07 - ID#57232)
Heart Medication
LGB: Thought you might like this -- There is a 'vitamin' called Coenzyme Q. It is part of what is called the oxidative pathway as I recall, and is rich in the mitochondria which supply ATP to cardiac muscle. It has virtually no side effects at effective doses, and works better than many cardiac medicines, besides being cheaper. I don't know what types of cardiac medicines you are taking -- if they are contractility enhancers, you may wish to look at Coenzyme Q. Do a literature search if appropriate, and see what you ( and your doctor ) think. One of my colleagues is taking it ( post MI ) , and it seems to help.

I don't think it works for antihypertensive situations, however, but for that you should also look up alternative medicine articles -- there is something there too, but not as impressive.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:08 - ID#269409)
@ SNowball...Y2K
What did ya have to go and say that for? Now we're going to get 20 page Y2K lectures complete with 200 Url's...!!!!! Watch out for the Y2K true believer's, they'll put a firmware hex on your car's emissions chip!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:11 - ID#269409)
Thanks JTF I'll check it out, but my situation is pretty specialized. Randomly plunging blood pressure / heart rate due to Neuro/Cardial signal mix-ups. The medication is a bate blocker "Pindolol" and it makes me whacky, sleepless, cranky, irritable, dizzy, and tired. However, that all might be preferable to a quick arrythmia that causes drop dead syndrome!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:14 - ID#30116)
Well... At least it's something...
Alternate to CNBCeurope..........

(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:17 - ID#269409)
@ a.j.
Relax man, take a chill pill, be cool, take it easy. This isn't Hillary Clinton's forum thus we don't need "Political Correctness" squared in order to discourse. Humor and satire are legitimate means of expression, and without em, the world would be a boring place.

If someone posts nonsense, they'll get called on it. We're a tough audience. Anyone stating that you don't have to file or pay taxes on your income is posting NONSENSE! I don't have to be an expert to understand that. Any more than I need be an expert in Chicken entrails and psychic healing, to know I'm better off sticking with the professionals who have gone to Med school for eons when I make my choices on who to believe in this world re ailments. eh?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:19 - ID#234218)
@LGB sorry.........
That's not to say I'm not taking precautionary measures. I have been lied to and I've been wrong before. I just don't see it as the end of the world. At least not just yet.

Maybe no one will notice I said anything!!!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:21 - ID#201238)

It is not I who is poetic, it is the Earth.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:22 - ID#242249)
To all
As some of you already know , Ted and me had a little discussion in the UNITED NATION Offices.

For this forum `s sake we escaped the site and fixed the turmoil on E-mail in a very civilised WAY.

Well Ted is now my friend!!!

We have to set our pattern as an example to fix wounds outside Bart`s site.

How everybody feel since the last three days?

No HEPCRAP style fixing......Don`t you appreciate?

Do you think this site is more and more attractive for TOP of the notch peoples to come here and participate!!!

Ted is a thrue gentleman.

He understand how the mustard bowl went up to my nose.

We will be together a kind of model for futur boxers on this site.Instead poluting Kitco we meet more privately and we will in real time

with ICQ , a MARVEL...for free:


(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:23 - ID#348286)
@a.j. 20:05
Amen........ Good Post

(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:24 - ID#257148)
Some BULLion?
Can anyone help me with this I have seen a Canadian bullion ( ? ) coin 1978 ER on one side on reverse "Together into the Future." could be a flock of loons. Looks like 1/2oz. Tia

(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:27 - ID#30116)
In the near future, there may a medical device available to prevent you from dropping dead in the cardiac event you describe.... at least not with out a good fight. It's small, and it's wearable. Nuff said...... ( maybe too much.. )

(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:27 - ID#242249)
Sorry for multi posting, I do not know how it could happenned.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:30 - ID#374211)
@ LGB....offf topic....
Since you brought the subject of heart problems and medication, I
had an opportunity to do some research ( we have a family history of heart
problems ) which I feel might help you and others, Basically involves mega vitamins ( all of them ) especially B"s C and E, plus Folic acid, Coenzyme10
MAGNESIUM for your heart Ischemic. Here are a few URL's that might

This ought to keep you busy for a bit....

Mo in To
(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:32 - ID#347205)
Your Gold Coin
Your gold coin sounds suspiciously like one I have and wear round my neck on occasion. It's a 1978 ( natch ) 1/2 ounce gold coin, 22 karat, with a face value of $100.00. Is this any help? I purchased it in the year it was issued. I bought 10 in 1978 ( @$150.00 each ) and sold them for a tidy profit when the POG skyrocketed. I simply can't part with the last one.
Mo from To

John B__A
(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:35 - ID#77133)
Snowball Y2K
I was delighted to read your post. Y2K will not be a very big problem at all by the time 12/99 arrives. I think we goldbugs need to downplay the DOOMSDAY rhetoric on Y2K. If not prospective gold investors may think we are all paranoid and should be avoided along with any gold investment. They may be correct on the former.

Mo in To
(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:35 - ID#347205)
Just can't spell without spellcheck!
Sorry I missed the correct spelling on your name. No offense meant.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:40 - ID#257136)
LGB!! The astute ones were capable of comprehension! No P.C. lover me!!
My point was that if you are NOT an expert on everything, pleses state so when someone makes a statement which does not fall totally within the area of your experience.

As to your medical condition, I respect your acceptance of the medico.

Have you ever consulted a Psychiatrist re: the other problems you have manifested in the past?
My reason for asking is that you seem to be having a relapse.
Before you lose your cool, please be advised I have more than forty years experience in dealing with deviant and abberant behavior!
Sorry to be so personal, but the treatment you accord those whose posts do not suit your fancy has been less than gentlemanly.
Indeed, less than manly.
Get a good night's rest and try again tomorrow!!
Maybe a dog to kick or a full size heavy bag to be struck for half an hour immediately on arrival home?
It could go a long way toward smootjing your relationships with others.
Not just we lurkers and investors, but maybe your family also!!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:42 - ID#341189)
Mondale visit message to Suharto oh so "sensitive" "Under wraps" Hmmmm

(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:42 - ID#227290)
Market Comments
Monday, March 2, 1998

All in all it was a pretty good day considering the big climb we saw on Friday. There was some deterioration in places, but it was contained and shows markets paused and didn't reverse.

Gold: Broke through its 100-day MA on Friday. Interesting that in today's action, the low for the day reached down to the 100-day MA, which held the line. This is much better than trying to break over it.
I'm still looking for some explosive action to take out this year's previous high and the 200-day MA in one fell swoop. The 200-day MA now stands at $313.
The short-term trend is definitely up.

Silver: Continued last week's bounce. Weekly stochastic lines, which were pointed down a week ago, are now turning flat to upward, a positive sign.
The major silver producer on the NYSE, Coeur d'Alene, hit a new high for the year today. CDE made it to its 200-day MA and then pulled back ever so slightly. CDE broke through its 100-day MA four weeks ago. The low for each of the last three weeks has nearly touched the top of that line, but the 100-day MA has contained each pullback. Now the stock is knocking to get over the 200-day MA. It didn't make it today, but it looks like soon, it will.
This too calls for some explosive-type action.

XAU: Friday it rallied up to its 100-day MA. Today it still could not penetrate it, the line is right at today's high at 75.55. Maybe tomorrow and almost surely by Wednesday we'll be over it. The 200-day MA is at 87.25, 12 points higher than the current level. I think we're going to reach that. Getting over it is another matter. But we should make a run at it.

Platinum: Rose $4.40 today to close at $388.00 after last week's reversal. The 200-day MA sits right at $400 as of now. That's the next target.

Palladium: Rose $.80 today to close at $232.35. Although it's above its 100- and 200-day MAs and they are rising, palladium has the overbought look of a commodity nearing exhaustion. It will take a push above last week's high of $244.50 for me to get bullish again.

Stillwater Mining: Pulled back 3/8 today to close at $21.12. It is above both of its MAs but we're still looking for the 100-day to move above the 200-day.
Today's action looks great in light of last week's reversal. It will need some explosive action to surmount the descending downtrend line at $24.00. I think we're likely to get it.

30-Year Bond Yields: Powered above its 100-day MA today and the stochastics on the weekly chart have turned sharply upward. The descending 200-day MA now stands at 6.22, and I think we're likely to test it in the near future.

U.S. Dollar: Held above its 100-day MA and showed some strength late in the day. It's not going down without a fight. Still, the stochastics on the weekly chart have turned more sharply downward from a high level. When I put all the charts together I think there will be some major announcement or event later this week which will put some fire into all the markets with paper assets falling and hard assets rising. We will see. But it's going to take something powerful to push the dollar off the cliff. And I think it will be the same event that powers gold above its 200- day MA. Interesting picture.

Copper: Picked up right where it left off with last week's rally after the reversal pattern was complete. Copper is now near $.80. It 100-day MA and last month's high reside at $.805. So it's to the point where a decision must be made. Again, it will take a strong push to reverse the long-standing downtrend.
The stochastics on the weekly chart have turned upward from a low and oversold level. I think copper will break out to the upside.

CRB: I don't follow it closely but I noticed today it had a strong gap opening and closed near the high of the day, both signs of strength.

That's it for today.

Happy trading,

The Preacher

(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:44 - ID#28098)
FT Weekender--which USPostal service kindly delivered today...

A realignment across the Arab world reflects the failure of US policy
David Gardner

Excerpts--FT reporter is under the impression that ,  so unhappy at the prospect of a new assault on Iraq that it [Saudi Arabia] refused US the US the use of its bases.

...US-sponsored economic summit... boycotted by Arab leaders.

Does this mean Arab leaders, famed for their ideological and religious rivalries, and their vicious personal animosities, and their vying for regional supremacy, have had some end-of-millennium rush of blood? Hardly. Rather, they are responding to baser and sounder instincts of self preservation. The regional realignment is a response to the perceived failure and unreliability of US policy, and to fear--especially among US allies such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia--that the fallout may undermine their regimes.

John B__A
(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:54 - ID#77133)
Preacher-market comments
I appreciate your technical comments. The only disturbing technical data I've seen was in Kaplan's daily report the other day which stated, "For COMEX silver futures, commercial insiders were long 13,306, short 71,291; speculators long 51,662, short 5,541. This means that the commitments for silver remain extremely bearish." The stats for gold futures were just the opposite, with commercials long and speculators short. Kaplan interprets as bullish. Regards,

(Mon Mar 02 1998 20:56 - ID#24563)
Iraq to rejoin family of nations?
Monday March 2 8:10 PM EST

Council approves Iraq resolution

UNITED NATIONS, March 2 ( UPI ) _ The U.N. Security Council formally approved ( Monday ) a resolution unanimously
endorsing Secretary-General Kofi Annan's Baghdad pact. The measure warns of ``severest consequences'' if Iraq violates the
agreement but Annan says if adhered to, it will see the lifting of sanctions and Iraq rejoining the family of nations.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:00 - ID#270227)
Veneroso Gold News .....New Book Comming
-Veneroso Gold Newsletter

 The Computer Funds Return to the Short Side
 Why 1998 Should Be More Positive Than 1997

Last week we made the following statement:

Over the last week we have some fund buying as well as indications of
possible producer buybacks. Yet, the gold price has gone nowhere. There
has been persistent selling. Statements out of Korea suggest Korean
sales of possible 25-30 tonnes every week or so. Statements by Terry
Smeeton of the Bank of England hint at persistent official selling. In the
past, fund buying with no upside progress in the gold price has been a
harbinger of a renewed decline in the gold price. However, this juncture
may be different. Warren Buffet's move into silver may be causing funds
to re-assess the outlook for gold in a more positive fashion. Several
formerly bearish dealers are hinting to funds and producers that the
official selling of 1997 may abate soon. Along these lines, Peter Munk,
Chairman of American Barrick, has returned from Davos where he met with
the European central banks. The message he brought back is that these
central banks may soon clearly indicate that claims of endless official
selling out of Europe fostered by the financial press are a "totally false

Surely Asian dishoarding has helped abort the recent rally in the gold price.
We hear of a possible new large producer hedge program. Over the last
several days price resistance in large part from Far East dishoarding turned
the gold chart down. This is now generating a return to the short side by
computer driven trend following funds. This is no surprise.
Nonetheless, we believe that conditions are different this time. Why?
Below we list the adverse shocks to the gold market over the last year and a
half. We then counter with our expectations for the future course of these
Adverse Shock No. 1- The Asian Currency Crisis
We have just released our third monthly study on the Asian currency crisis
and gold. In each reiteration of this analysis, we have increased our
estimate of the negative impact this crisis has had on the gold market. In
the end, the Cassandra warnings of the markets' most vocal bears---Andy
Smith and Ted Arnold---have tended to be more or less correct. In our third
pass at analyzing this phenomenon, we have concluded that this crisis may
have depressed the gold price by $60 or more. Most of this adverse shock
has taken the form of investor dishoarding, chiefly in Korea, and inventory
dishoarding by commercials across Far East Asia.
In our estimation, the inventory dishoarding by commercials must be largely
over, though it may persist at a reduced rate for some months to come.
Investor dishoarding in Korea has been providing over 100 tonnes of gold per
month to the market in January and February. Korean households who have
wanted to sell their gold have probably done so by now. We expect this
dishoarding to cease by mid year. All in all, such investor dishoarding and
commercial inventory

liquidation, which may have approximated 100 tonnes a month since some
time in Q397, should dry up by mid year.
Adverse Shock No. 2- EMU Related Central Bank Selling
We do not know for sure whether there has been EMU related official selling
in 1997. GFMS estimates that several European central banks have sold
quantities of gold which have yet to be disclosed. We have our own special
reasons for believing the Dutch were sellers in 1997. There appears to be a
consensus in the dealer community that such selling occurred last year.
Terry Smeeton of the Bank of England and Chris Stals of the Reserve Bank of
South Africa have both predicted continued European central bank selling both
up to and after the formation of the European Central Bank. By contrast, we
have amassed evidence over the last six months that, once the ECB is
created, the French and Germans will restrain, if not prevent outright, further
European central bank selling. Peter Munk and Julian Baring have come back
from Davos with the impression that European central bank selling will abate
in 1998. Jean Claude Trichet of the Bank of France has made many public
statements that are supportive of gold as a reserve asset over the last
month or so. Peter Munk expects that the central banks of Europe will make
a statement to the effect that financial press allegations of a high level of
European central bank selling in the future are without substance. We have
heard today that , after selling its Barrick shares, Munk's real estate
company bought out-of-the-money calls on Barrick shares with an April
expiration date. This may reflect an expectation that the European central
banks will make such a statement before early May when the countries in
EMU and their exchange rates will be decided upon.
The fact that there has been no announcement yet on EMU related selling
suggests there is more to be done. Besides the hints of Smeeton and Stals,
we have received one report that some European selling is to be expected
soon. However, after the fixing of the currencies in late April or May, EMU
related selling should abate or stop. On balance, we expect an abatement in
EMU related selling in 1998 relative to 1997.
Adverse Shocks No 3 - Producer Hedging
Threats of EMU related official selling were widely advertised by the bullion
dealers in 1997. The data on producer hedging in 1997 is now coming in. It
is possible that the Australian producers increased their hedge position by
more than 400 tonnes in 1997. The leading survey of North American hedge
positions indicates a rise in the North American hedge position of close to 150
tonnes in the first three quarters of 1997. We understand that the North
American producers probably added to their hedge position in Q497. More
importantly, we understand that the African producers added to their hedges
in 1997 overall. It is possible that producer hedging increased by 700 tonnes
in 1997.
Seven hundred tonnes of hedging in 1997 would be a record. Will it happen
in 1998? The bear market of 1997 has convinced most producers of the
merits of hedging. The Australians have hedged four years of annual
production . The rest of the world's producers have hedged less than one
year on average. It is easy to see these other producers would eventually
try to hedge two years of production, but the odds are that they would not
try to do this in one or even two years. We expect considerable net new
hedging in 1998. However, the historical record suggests it will not equal
1997's record level.

Adverse Shock No. 4 Speculator Short Sales
We argued throughout the first eight months of 1997 that fund short selling
was depressing the gold price. Gold Fields Mineral Services, Ltd. ( GFMS ) has
estimated that the combination of Western investor dishoarding of physical
bullion plus speculator short sales came to 250 tonnes last year. We believe
that net speculator short selling greatly exceeded that total by September.
These speculator short sales comprise both derivative sales by funds as well
as gold borrowings by bullion banks and others to finance non-gold
positions. As an example of the latter, there is evidence that Korean banks
borrowed gold to finance non-gold positions. These latter positions have
been building throughout the 1990's. We would not be surprised if
speculator short positions of these types increased by more than 500 tonnes
through early September of 1997 and were the dominant selling pressure on
the gold market in the first eight months of 1997. However, there was a
dramatic reduction in these speculative shorts on the rally in
September/October. We believe that most but not all of these short positions
were put on again by year end 1997. In effect, there was something of a
reduction in the short position in the fourth quarter when net official sales
persisted, Asian end use demands declined, and Asian dishoarding and
producer hedging possibly intensified. We believe that there has been a
further reduction in the net speculative short position so far in 1998.
On balance we estimate that the net increase in speculative shorts in 1997
may have been on the order of 400 tonnes. If producer hedging was almost
700 tonnes and net official sales were 500 tonnes---both of which seem
plausible to us---there simply is no room for more than 400 tonnes of net
speculative short selling ( including gold carry trades ) in 1997.
Speculative short selling in 1997 was encouraged by dealer indications of EMU
related official sector sales. Some dealers are indicating these might abate
in 1998. Peter Munk and Julian Baring have suggested the same on their
return from Davos. Such reports should lead speculators to consider
reducing their short positions. We believe this has already begun to happen
in January and February of this year.
When the gold price rallies on a sustained basis in 1998, the trend following
computer funds will go from short to long. Hedge funds and proprietary
traders will cover their shorts. The gold carry trade might be reduced. If
official selling and Asian dishoarding abate in 1998 and lead to a gold price
rally, the net speculator short selling in 1997 will be replaced by net
speculator buying.
The gold market is basing amidst intense Asian dishoarding and possibly some
official selling on rallies above $300. Both of these should abate in the first
half of 1998. A reversal of net speculator flows will augment any rally. The
producer sector will probably not provide more resistance in such an
environment than it did in 1997. The greatest price resistance will come
from short run and largely transitory abatements in physical demand that
accompany all gold price rallies. Scale up delta hedging of central bank
options will also provide transitory price resistance. ( These effects are
discussed in detail in chapter four of our forthcoming Gold Book Annual ) . So
may official sales by non European central banks who have been convinced
by last year's torrent of bearish commentary on gold that they too should sell
some or all of their gold. On balance, with an abatement of Asian investor
and commercial inventory dishoarding, the gold price should retrace its
decline of 1996-1997, possibly over a time frame of similar duration.
Veneroso Associates:
All portions of this work, copyright 1998, all rights reserved.

-Frank Veneroso has a gold book coming our soon. If you are interested call
Bill Murphry 1 603-430-8482 or email

(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:05 - ID#26669)
LGB, you have my sympathy
both for the heart condition and for being out of SSC. I noticed they were stable in price on a volume of 435,400. So I might buy some more too at $1.25, thus nearly guaranteeing ( according to Murphy's Law ) the price will plummet. :^ (

Warning: off topic material ahead!

BTW, they already have a portable defibrillator with implanted electrodes and have been trying to perfect the completely implantable one. Reports are that people don't like it, as it feels like getting zapped by one of those cattle prod thingies the police carry. They say the arrythmias are painless until the person passes out, but the defib gets them before they pass out, too. ZAP! :^&

(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:06 - ID#230216)

(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:11 - ID#222231)
a.j. Hypocrisy or better yet, Hypocrite
a.j., please reread your 20:05 post and then your 20:40 post to LGB.
Then, if you have the time read Websters definition of a Hypocrite:

"One who feigns to be other and better than he is; a false pretender to to virtue or piety".

I really don'nt want to start anything with you, but I could not stand by and see you degrade others, especially when you stated in your 20:05 post that it is the ungentlemanly thing to do. Please do not take this personally.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:14 - ID#225273)
John B & Kaplan
John B,

This information from Kaplan qualifies as fundamental info as opposed to technical info, in my view. The charts incorporate all the data about who's buying and who's selling.
No technical indicator is absolute in its predictive ability all the time.
It seems to me like events are converging for some sort of trend change of large magnitude. I don't know what the trigger will be, but perhaps something will come out of left field in the next few days.
We'll see.


The Preacher

(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:15 - ID#411233)
@FARFEL (THE UNPRONOUNCEABLE) ---What's this all about,(Buffett
Announcement ) . Were you just joking, if not could you elaborate just
a tad more? THANKS.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:18 - ID#432221)
Private purchases

(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:20 - ID#242249)
Deficit double: Asian fallout

rocks Australian trade

Japan: CEOs Hesitant in Public

(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:23 - ID#288295)
Pete @ India premiums
I did some additional research on the premiums paid in India for gold and silver - this data is from the Indian Central Bank for 4 years - percent premium paid in Mumbai ( Bombay ) over London spot1990-91 gold 59.5% silver 162.1%1994-95 gold 20.8% silver 29%1995-96 gold 18.4% silver 24.3%1996-97 gold 18.4% silver 24.3%I still don't know in what year the official markup dropped below 100% for silver.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:24 - ID#280222)
TORTFEASOR or anyone...
Have you heard of a course by Keith Anderson, setting up offshore ( or domestic ) trusts?????????? Would appreciate opinions and any information ( pro or con ) . Thank you. ( C'mon GOLD! )

(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:24 - ID#432221)
Private purchases
S'cuse my ignorance. What's the best way to get the yellow stuff without it being reported to Big Brother? $1000+.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:28 - ID#225273)
Grant & Privacy

Here in and around Atlanta, GA, you can just walk into a coin store, buy gold with cash, and walk out. No questions asked
And with a name like Grant, you'll have more to fear from the locals if they find out who you are than you will the feds.

The Preacher

(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:32 - ID#369174)
Did what I posted make any sense? What I'm trying to say is that IF the pattern I noted on the last run in silver holds, then either tomorrow or Wednesday SSC and other silver stocks will go up with pent-up momentum from the last couple of price increases in spot Ag. Since they're leveraged ( 3X ? ) look for another 20% jump. I tried to buy some more SSC today and couldn't get in either.

I noticed this pattern when I bought some PAASF for a quick play, saw the spot price jumps, and had to wait 3 days for the price to bounce a measly 1/4 point with spot prices going up over .50 ! Of course, as soon as I sold for my 1/4 point profit, the stock went up about 1 1/2 points. I'm glad I learned my lesson and still made a profit.

KITCO very slow all afternoon. I'll try to BBL.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:33 - ID#401237)
Future Accounting Problems On The Way

Monday March 2, 8:47 pm Eastern Time

``In 1998, the U.S. trade imbalance with Asia is expected to worsen considerably,'' the White House said in its report to Congress.

``The loss of foreign investor confidence at the root of a number of these countries' international payments problems is significantly related to the existence and growing burden of non-transparent, anti-competitive practices in their financial and other markets,'' the report said.

On Japan, the report said the administration ``remains determined in its effort to open Japanese markets to foreign goods and services.'' On that front the administration said it will continue to closely monitor bilateral trade agreements with Japan and seek improved market access through the World Trade Organization.

Asia is getting interesting this pm or am depending on where you are viewing things from.


(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:36 - ID#32078)
30 year bond rate
TYRO and PREACHER comments..

Last friday, when the long bond rate reached 6.01%, buyers entered the market to buy bonds, driving the rate back down to 5.91%.

Today, bonds sold off until the rate moved up to over 6% again. However, this time, very few, if any buyers came in to push the rate down. The large increase in the rate indicates there are many more sellers of US treasuries than most experts predicted, and potential buyers pulled back to see how low the bonds will go. The .10% increase is a big one day change, and I consider this extremely bullish for gold at least short term.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:36 - ID#432221)
preacher...That fact is not lost ,..,,

Lived with that all my life, got a cousin named Lee,he got the better end o' that deal.
Tx. takes your D.L. and the type of bills you pay with.Kinda wierd.
Is this unusual?

John B__A
(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:42 - ID#211105)
Preacher - Silver B
Preacher - I agree the Kaplan data is fundamental and would be reflected in your technical data. This week should be interesting.

Silver Baron - To add to your statistics, the latest Andy Smith Bulletin states that "The premium on Bombay over world prices has fallen from 26% in July - when Mr. Buffett began buying - to about 2% in February. . ." Not being familiar with this subject I wouldn't know how to interpret this? Generally, it would seem any premium is positive?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:46 - ID#225273)
Bad joke & state laws

I felt bad about my joke the moment I posted it. You sure took it well, though. Sometimes my fingers type faster than my brain thinks. Sorry.

There was a time in GA when we had to fill out a green card. But no more. Just walk in and the shop insists on cash only.

Of course, Franklin Sanders ( Memphis, TN ) sells physical gold & silver and at least you know he'll go to jail before he gives your name to anyone.

The Preacher

(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:49 - ID#432221)

It strikes me that in the event PM's become worth alot more than they are now, one would be foolish to sell for dollars. All the more reason to get. The edge aint far away.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:51 - ID#225273)
larryn & 30-yr. rates

I too think the action is very bullish for bond yields. If you'll notice, the dollar index peaked Jan. 5, bonds peaked on Jan .12, the same day that gold bottomed. Nothing has changed since then; bonds down, dollar down, gold up.
Now we've come to the moment of truth. Is this a new trend or a correction?
To my way of thinking, the first of the three made its move Friday, gold moved above its 100-day MA. Today; the bond yields broke above their 100-day MA. Now it's time for the dollar to confirm.

A new trend must take gold and bond yields must higher and the dollar much lower. Things are falling into place nicely.

The Preacher

(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:56 - ID#432221)
Preacher, Me no understand.
I certainly enjoy a joke as much as the next guy.
Is it commonplace for bullion dealers to require traceability?

Lurker 777
(Mon Mar 02 1998 21:59 - ID#317247)
EB are you testing us?
Did we pass the test or are you working for the Emergency Broadcasting System. Are you sure this was only a TEST. Hmmmmm
Are you still long Gold? I sold my April calls today and have some almost worthless April 290 puts.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 22:00 - ID#153102)
Y2K doubters: a verifiable event
"By 2000 military command and control will be non-existent and it seems
likely most hi-tech weapons systems will be non-functional. Two weeks ago
the Y2K honcho for the US Department of Defense resigned and his
resignation was immediately followed by the resignations of his two top
assistants, leaving no one with the ability to rapidly step into this
critical national defense command position. No one wants to command a
sinking ship."

The Y2K related event which can be verified is these resignations.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 22:14 - ID#288295)
John B @ India premiums
Well, I'm not sure how to interpret it either....The Indian government controlled the price at a markup of over 100% above London spot until a few years ago, which means that the silver purchased in that time period is still above the current price. More recently ( I think '94 ) , the controls were lifted and the premium paid dropped considerably to 24-26% over spot....The concern of many has been that large amounts of Indian silver would come upon the market once the price reached the $7.00 level - I personally think this is unlikely considering the premiums which ( up to now ) have been paid. If the 'sell' price is now at only 2% over spot, then the 'buy' price must be considerably less than the price at which most silver was accumulated by Indians ( spot plus 24% or more ) . In addition, I am told that silver is a major store of wealth in India - as in many eastern countries, and is not so easily dislodged as thought by westerners.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 22:17 - ID#22956)
oh my...
go go silver...I think yer ready to run again....c'mon baby!!

Ted, how was Eddie's? Lakers are terrible right now...I am ashamed.

Mooney, EH? ...and what of cotton?....the 'seasonal' might prove fruitful afterall.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 22:18 - ID#153102)
Regarding your assertion that gold and silver coin cannot serve as the medium of exchange because of the size of the population, please tell the forum how much in ounces would be enough for just American citizens and how you arrive at your conclusion.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 22:28 - ID#31876)
Max Has It Right..Read "Asian Suckers'Rally"

Old Soldier
(Mon Mar 02 1998 22:28 - ID#185274)
Preacher, Please e-mail me.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 22:34 - ID#227290)
Grant & Traceability

I thought that back in the '80s, when we had to fill out a form to buy or sell gold, that it was a federal law that required that.
But for the past few years at least, this hasn't been required in coin shops around Atlanta. As for other places, I don't know.
Does anyone out there know what the law is on traceability for buying gold bullion?

The Preacher

(Mon Mar 02 1998 22:39 - ID#210235)
Have you considered old coins? You can buy some for little more than bullion, and avoid the accountability issue altogether. I recently bought some British Sovereigns, which were minted between 1902 and 1932. Also French Roosters, minted from 1899 to 1915. I am no lawyer, but the advice that I have been given is that these aren't reportable to the IRS.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 22:40 - ID#153102)
It's a fool who admits he has gold or silver coin to a tax man whatever a record somewhere may state. Personally, I have spent all mine. For the record.

PH in LA
(Mon Mar 02 1998 22:41 - ID#225408)
Two Brief Comments

Interesting verifiable event. Would be even more interesting if you would include the source of your quotation for verification calibration of said verifiable event.


Certainly as the current tax laws are being administrated the purchase of PMs is an unrecorded event. However, the proper procedures must be followed upon sale, for tax purposes. It would probably be advisable to have verifiable documentation of the purchase price at that time.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 22:41 - ID#369174)
mozel - What is the source of your 22:00 quote?

(Mon Mar 02 1998 22:49 - ID#57232)
Pre 1933 coins vs bullion coins
All: Someone posted that pre 1933 coins were not appropriate for gold bug because they would only be worth their bullion value during a crisis. Probably this would be true in Indonesia right now, except that bullion prices there have gone out of sight anyway. My guess is that we will have serious inflation first before we have deflation, so the bullion lovers can sell some of their pre - 1993 gold coins for a profit, and buy bullion. Only problem is -- the bullion coins could wind up being confiscated if traced, no matter what the laws are now. Perhaps I am thinking too much.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 22:50 - ID#242249)
What else?

Nikkei shrugs off $2bn crash:

U.S. Suharto Urged to Hold Course on Reforms:

Gusto Oro
(Mon Mar 02 1998 22:50 - ID#377235)
Hey Preacher, US Grant and Sherman were both scoundrels. Being from Wisconsin, I apologize for sending them down your way. I believe the Feds only keep track of your selling of PMs, unless you're selling the 40% silver halves which didn't get included into the law on an oversight. $8 silver would not surprise me by Good Friday.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 22:51 - ID#369174)
The Contrarian's View
Don't think anyone posted the Feb 28 issue link yet.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:01 - ID#257136)
junk silver and gold bullion---Need sources with reasonable prices(comparatively speaking)
Have a child and her spouse who are interested in getting somewhere between 3 and 5 gs in one or both metals combined.
I have not bought anything in over six months as I was too early on the scene.
Can't brag 'bout my perspicacity, but they are under our control and safe, even if I paid a little more for them than they would be now.
Unlike many of the genii here I buy to conserve assets, not increase them.
Please give me some dealers names. Don't bother giving Blanchard, as I've dealt with them several years back and still have a bad taste in my mouth from it!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:04 - ID#57232)
Indonesian Currency board
Oliver,TZADEAK,SDRer: I think the most important point about Indonesia and the currency board business is that South East Asian countries are offering to help Indonesia. This goes along with Mahathirs ( sp? ) comments not so long ago. That is why the IMF is upset -- they are moving away from the US dollar -- and foreign investment ( ? ) as their exclusive source of foreign funds. I think we are seeing a major sea change -- and the european/US interests don't like it. I think this is good for several reasons:

1 ) The US dollar will never be under control as long it is the world's currency, and

2 ) the world currency needs either to be backed by gold, or to be a currency basket ( SDR? ) to reduce currency fluctuations. That is what AG himself implied about two days ago -- what he said was that a currency board would offer currency stability almost as good as a gold standard. He then said Indonesia was not ready. For a word master, that's as close as you can get to saying that a gold standard is a good idea, without actually saying it.

Much of the trouble was due to instability in the US dollar, and I think many of the SEAsians are aware of this -- even if it was not the only reason for the crisis.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:08 - ID#242249)
Canadian Currency...Bart is more and more expensive..

CAND $ MAR98 .7058 +29

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:10 - ID#247273)
gold price
How about this for a "scheme" to control the price of gold. The CB's, particularly the large holders of gold, could be selling to themselves or to other confidant nations, somewhat as the US Govt can buy its own bonds if there are no other buyers, with, of course, funny money hot off the presses. No reason they could not do similarly with gold. In that case, however, there would be a concerted effort to keep prices at controlled levels for the sake of currencies. The gold market could be controlled in that manner, particularly as prices are forced lower, the producers have less and less leverage or maneuvering room. Imagine passing around the gold from one nation to the next, but not in reality, only on paper. The paper derivatives could then easily be moved around via the POG. Voila! CB selling would then be a mirage manufactured by the governments that participate, meant only to control prices. As has been said here many times, this cannot be done with silver, since it is a much more open market. I have not all the facts, but something must at last make sense of this irrational market in gold. Comments and thoughts, please.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:10 - ID#238422)
Allen (USA)
Yes, 15%. SHould be real close to this number.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:11 - ID#242249)
Forgot the graph url

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:13 - ID#153102)
@Tax Law
Tortfeasor, the tax lawyer, has the perfect handle. Dickens could not have invented a better. If you don't understand what I mean, look it up in a law dictionary.

The lawyer you hire is the friend of your enemy. Tolerant1 has posted what every American should have been taught about hiring a lawyer.
Irwin Schiff spent about eight years in a federal cage for resisting the income tax. I am proud to say I have shaken his hand. He is a man, not a mouse. I don't recommend his tax materials, however, though not because something is incorrect about his conclusions.

The best advice given on the forum about tax law was to fear the IRS. The reason to fear the IRS is obvious if you read and understood the posting titled the New History of America based on facts about gold, silver, and Debt. There is no government according to the Constitution; there is no law; there is just men with guns and judges under their thumb; taxes are collected and enforced in a martial law regional venue and martial law jurisdiction posing as admiralty. It's that simple. The whole federal apparatus is a cosa nostra without any legitimacy from the Constitution or the States or the people at all. Elections by themselves are no source of legitimacy. Legitimacy comes by way of the consent of the governed in which all the rights of all the individuals are to be protected equally by written compact. The federal has breached the trust of the compact. Might never makes right, but it may make legal. The IRS does not even stay within the legal. They seize based on informations qui tam. Everyone involved with the federal cosa nostra on the "legal" side is maintaining a pretense and proceeding falsely on "legal fictions" and obligations based on ficititious stipulations or ignorant of the law and its reason and sources. Chief Justice Burger said nine out of ten lawyers are incompetent, so draw your own conclusions. The only way to win in their courts is to stay out of their courts except in very limited, special cases having nothing to do with taxes. And you cannot claim independence at law and be receiving a benefit from government, actually or prospectively.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:16 - ID#238422)
John Disney
John, hope everything is fine with you.
I was not able to get Norilsk numbers.Sorry...
I will talk to Russians from Metallurgical
Ministry later this year, in April, during
Show in Dusseldorf. May be some of them will
give away the secret under influence, but I
doubt it. Will see...

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:19 - ID#57232)
Correction on Currency board post
Should have said: Indonesia and other SEAsians are moving away from the dollar, and other foreign investment funds, and moving toward local investments, and local currencies. They now have the wealth to do this, unlike the last time sudden deflation like this occurred, and they were nearly helpless.

I don't know if everyone knows this, but I have some friends in Taiwan, their medical care is 'state of the art', and the Taiwanese people have ready access to this care. In the US, we have it, but we can no longer get it ( easily ) . Now are we really better off, and SEASia is still a third world collection of countries? I think the time when we dictate ( US and Europe ) financial matters to the SEAsians is over.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:23 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

High Tech ( computers, software & electronics DOWN )
Computers -2.1%, Software - 0.9%, Elect -1.9%
FSAGX UP 8.2% in 5 days. GO GOLD!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:24 - ID#242249)
We can call that ......PUSHING the string
Walter Mondale encourages
Indonesia to make IMF
reforms :

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:26 - ID#153102)
@PH in LA @tyro
If I told you a blind man had reported an eclipse, you would be disinclined to check and see if an eclipse had actually occurred. If the event can be verified, it speaks independently of the source. I am interested in whether or not this event can be verified in order to have more or less reliance on the source. Let's see what anyone turns up. Then, I'll reveal the source.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:28 - ID#369174)
Grant@21:36 It is unusual to me (in CO).

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:29 - ID#257136)
Mozel: Read your 23:13 with interest.
If you have a mind to and are actually
interested in gaining some knowledge
( which you may already have ) 'bout
the criminal gubmnt,
email me

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:30 - ID#242249)
Merrill Lynch Japan
Merrill Lynch launches $6b paper to fund Japanese expansion

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:32 - ID#57232)
Logging off to be with 'real' boss -- at home
Schippi: Glad you have kept up the FSAGX posting -- music to my eyes! And right at the bottom was the Solar Eclipse. Bought some right at that bottom -- should have bought more! Now, the key question is -- where do we go from here? Are we to have another major crunch if China wipes out? My guess is that some time after April 1 we will have our next critical point -- since Japan will go all out to prop up their markets to reach that date.

I don't think the xxxgate crisis can heat up quickly enough to shift the scales and push up the gold stocks -- yet anyway. Clinton pal and virtuoso lawyer Vernon Jordan is testifying tomorrow -- with limited immunity. Even if VJ says nothing bad, BC just lost another supporter.

John B__A
(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:34 - ID#17470)
Silver B
Your argument is good. I would have to agree that it makes no sense for India to be disgorging any silver at all at these low prices.

I recall back during the Hunt brothers corner, that I didn't start selling silver dollars until the spot price was in the 20s. I then sold some in the low 30s and then stopped altogether because I became convinced the price was going to the moon. Why should the Indians be any different!

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:35 - ID#242249)
What can happen if your are staving to death and armed to the theet
North Korea's food runs out......

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:38 - ID#250251)
Third world Asia ?
JTF: I agree entirely with your last post, having lived in Singapore I can testify to their superb medical facilities and social care programs.

The USA is not the paragon of social advancement it pretends to be to the outside world, in the USA availability of almost any facility is strictly on a payment basis. ( Token charity cases for pubicity not withstanding. )

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:40 - ID#153102)
Post it. I'll read it with interest.
If it's about mena, I know already.

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:53 - ID#242249)
East Asia, SE Asia, U.S. To

Cooperate In Resolving Region's


TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -Japan, the U.S., China and 11 other

countries and regions in Southeast Asia have agreed to

monitor one another's economies as their economic links

strengthen. They will hold a meeting in Tokyo later this

month to discuss measures for stabilizing Asian currencies.

Participants are expected to require Indonesia, South Korea

and Thailand to carry out economic reforms agreed to with

the International Monetary Fund, an informed source said.

Japan, which is to chair the conference, will be called on to

boost domestic economic demand.

Deputy finance ministers and central bank vice presidents

will attend the first meeting, along with senior officials of the

IMF, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

( The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Monday evening edition

(Mon Mar 02 1998 23:56 - ID#31868)
Please pardon me, my heart is crushed, I still cannot get EMAIL,the grid will be fixed in the morning, if this message is pathetic so am I at the moment.