Prometheus
For my comparative purposes would you plse advise your buy price for the sovs?

Mo in To
Thanks for info, it is a v beautiful coin, especially the loonies ( ? ) flying in formation, and would look rather fine around Beautiful Jewel's neck, but why "Together into the Future"? Not that I disapprove, nor even understand the mawkish depth of the sentiment, but I am curious about the minting. What happened in 1978? I am a tad disappointed it is only 22k, too.

I most certainly agree, and have so posted, that we are at the threshhold
of a new era in world economics and finance and that the Asians
are attempting to help Indonesia out of it's current economic turmoil,
however I view the current events from the basis that the US$
is increasingly coming under pressure as sole reserve world curency
from a large number of quarters, and that it will take an exeedingly hard
and long fight with other "papers". You are correct in your quote of AG,
however I believe what he said was that tying the Rupiah to the US$
via a currency board would be as good as a Gold Standard, implying
that the paper US$ is as good as Gold, but we know better...
What I see happening in SE Asian is something of a wake up call for
said countries there that if they don't stick together and fight the US ( IMF )
they will be picked off one by one by "speculators"?. Having said
that, I believe they are going to play"both sides" that is accept IMF US$
and add further basket of Asian currencies to stregnthen reserves and
give them an counter balance to the US$. This will be the first of many
moves by many countries that will usher in what I have suggested as currency trading blocks, and thus the beggining of the decline of the US$ as sole world reserve currency.
But as far as Gold backing for these currencies, I do not see it at this
point in time, the name of the game IMHV is "paper" US paper or Asian
paper. Accept my paper and I'll accept your paper. They will want to
play the "paper" game as long as posssible, they are hiring US economists to teach them all about "paper"derrivatives and calls on "paper"derrivatives etc.....
Gold will come THUNDERING into the scene shortly thereafter, when the inevitable disputes will arise as to whose "paper" is real and better etc.....
especially when the Oil states paly their card.....and the long awaited "FIGHT" for Gold will overtly commence with a vengeance.....

According to Agence France Presse, Iranian forces attacked Iraq on Sunday

night, raiding anti-Iranian guerrillas based in Iraq. The attacks took

place along the central front, due east of Baghdad. Mujahadeen sources in

Iraq described a pitched battle covering several hundred square kilometers,

including everything from rocket attacks to hand to hand combat.

Iranian Forces Clash with Rebels in Iraq

According to Agence France Presse, Iranian forces attacked Iraq on Sunday
night, raiding anti-Iranian guerrillas based in Iraq. The attacks took
place along the central front, due east of Baghdad. Mujahadeen sources in
Iraq described a pitched battle covering several hundred square kilometers,
including everything from rocket attacks to hand to hand combat. The
Iranians, on the other hand, claimed that anti-Iranian guerrillas had tried
to infiltrate the Iranian border near the town of Mehran and that nine had
been killed. What is clear from the conflicting reports is that a major
clash occurred along the border due east of Baghdad. Fighting took place
up to twenty miles inside Iraqi territory near the towns of Tarsaq and Kut
as well as on the border itself. Weapons included 82 mm mortars and RPG-
18s, which are vehicle mounted rockets. From the weapons and casualty
claims, it appears that the Iranians deployed several company sized, mobile
units in the raid, while simultaneously ambushing several squads of
Mujahadeen forces. It is not clear from reports whether the Iranian attack
was fully successful.

It has been our view that the recent Iraqi crisis began with an Iranian air
raid on Mujahadeen positions in Iraq and that it had, as one of its
elements, a plan to dismember Iraq. The decision by the United States to
permit the United Nations to defuse the crisis apparently left Iran in the
lurch. We believe that the Iranians may have decided to pursue this policy
on their own. Or, to be more precise, Tehran may now read the balance of
forces between themselves and Iraq as favoring Iran. They are also
convinced that the United States will not, under any circumstances,
intervene on the part of Iraq. This makes it possible, obviously, for Iran
to attempt to reverse the results of the Iran-Iraq war.

If we are correct in this view, then the Iranian probe into Iraq was an
opening salvo in an Iranian attack on Iran. By striking at the central
front, Iran may be trying to draw Iraqi forces out of the south, from near
Basra and the Shatt al-Arab, the area of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers
that Iran lost to Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war, and an essential strategic
point in the region. Iran may, in fact, be pursuing the policy inherited
from the United States of ratcheting up tensions in the hope of triggering
a Kurdish uprising in the north, forcing Iraq to concentrate forces in the
north and center, while the main Iranian thrust comes in the south, through
the delta marshes.

Iranian diplomats have been on a major offensive in the week since the
Annan mission to Iraq. This has included senior officials visiting Moscow,
Beijing and Riyadh. Indeed, former Iranian President Rafsanjani completed
a full eleven days in Saudi Arabia today, returning to Tehran. While the
contents of the meetings are not fully known, the Iranians clearly broached
the idea of dealing with Iraq through regional means rather than by
depending on the United States. Put differently, they broached the idea of
an Iranian attack on Iraq.

A successful Iranian attack on Iraq would, of course, destroy the regional
balance of power, making Iran the preeminent regional power. This would
clearly endanger Saudi Arabia. However, Saudi Arabia is far more concerned
with the price of oil than with geopolitics at the moment, and would be
tempted to trade the balance of power for Iranian help in shoring up the
price of oil. It is not clear what Iran could do in this respect, save
that an attack on Iraq would certainly boost the world's oil price, at
least temporarily.

It is, of course, purely speculative to assume that Iran is planning a
unilateral attack on Iraq. One indication of its intentions will be if
fighting resumes in the next few days. However, if we assume that the
outcome of the Iran-Iraq war is intolerable to Iran, and they never tire of
making that point, it also follows that this is one of those rare moments
in which Iran has a reasonable possibility for rectifying that war's
outcome. If Iran struck hard at Iraq, it is unlikely that any outside
power would come to Baghdad's assistance directly or indirectly. It is a
moment full of historical possibilities from the Iranian point of view.
Last night's battle might have been an anomaly. We suspect that it might
be an Iranian test of Iraqi resolve and capabilities, as well as of
international response to such an adventure. Should we be correct, we may
expect further combat in the coming days.

you already know all about Mena, I'll surmise you also know all
about the subject I planned to broach.
I do not touch type and my time can be better spent, I perceive.
I am widely acquainted in the freedom fight, but prefer to not
post more than the average folks can accept or understand.
My apologies for my mistake!!
( %+^ ) [

Asia slipping into the red.

Could someone please comment on the action in the warrants today vs the common?

Something up or normal stuff?

Thanks,
:ignorant in MN.

http://www.montrealcam.com/

News is news. I usually go by the rule the more who know true news the better. If you don't care to post, I understand.
No apologies necessary. No offense intended.

I will not accept anything but your honesty.

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1004.htm

ever more...

For Mozel
Your post which draws the parallel between the
Govrnment and Cosa nostra is excellent. To add
on, this is the reason behind the Government's
obsession with fighting "organized" crime ( which is
little threat to the citizenry ) as opposed to
"disorganized" crime ( an obvious threat ) .
Government saw the Mafia as a threat to THEMSELVES.
For example, if the citizenry subcontracted Government
to the Mafia, Taxes would cease ( they would fund
themselves via lotteries ) and most useless branches
of Government would be eliminated.
Crime in the streets would end ( the only safe place in
NYC was always Little Italy ) . Since the Government were
thugs themselves, they could see how vulnerable they
were to infiltration and takeover by more honerable
( and probably more well meaning thugs ) .
This is also consistent with their desire to
disarm the citizenry. They can they get on with the
business of selling PROTECTION to guard citizens
against "disorganized" crime.
If you recall, The onslaught against organized
crime began under the Kennedy administration - it
was simply to destroy the competition.

G'day LGB
Was sorry to hear about your rapidly plunging blood pressure and heart beat problems and would like to offer some cures. The first is to drink about four bottles of either Victoria Bitter of Fosters Lager every afternoon. As I know these are difficult to obtain in the U.S.A. I would like to offer a more practical and portable solution. First you have to subscribe to the Steve Puetz newsletter. Then if you survive this experience, you should be sure to keep the latest issue at all times in your back pocket. When you feel one of these 'episodes' coming on -- you whip it out real quickly and start reading!! I absolutely guarantee that this will double your blood pressure and heart rate in a matter of seconds. No charge, mate. Cheers from Dr. Nick.

G'day Mo in To -- your problem is not quite as serious. You were worried when you mispelled Orator's name. Now your cure is quite simple. When you mispell a Kiwi's name--just relax as Kiwis have very thick hides. They need them to protect against wool burns. No charge, mate. Cheers from Dr. Nick.

For Brother Oris
Im well and hope you are too. Hiatus in
activity caused by renewed interest in predicting
outcome of horse races and investing in same.
Interested in learning Russian language, but
require good looking Russian chick teacher. Can
you offer any help on this?
Please try to get as much info as possible
from contacts. Vodka may help - but be carefull
you dont forget what they tell you.

Japan: Monetary net needs rethink, says finance envoy
TUESDAY MARCH 3 1998

Japan supports global monetary overhaul
Excerpts...
Neither the US Treasury nor the International Monetary Fund would be drawn into any public declaration on Mr. Sakakibara's interview,
although officials made plain that any ideas being studied stopped well short of a Bretton Woods-style fixed exchange rate system.

In his interview, Mr. Sakakibara, insisted that the crisis was not a uniquely Asian affair, but stemmed from shortcomings in the global financial system.

This just shows how unstable current world capitalism is," he said.

http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q347f2.htm

The Asean Family has good evidence in hand as to EXACTLY what happened ; and they--quite understandably--are not at all pleased, nor will they continue along the previous path.

"Gold bugs" is a term often used to describe people who love collecting or buying and selling gold. But there are real gold bugs, too: bacteria that love munching on rock containing gold.

In recent years, scientists have discovered how to use these bacterial "gold bugs" to help free tiny amounts of gold among piles of low grade ore that would otherwise be waste. When carefully sprayed on the ore, the bugs eat away the sulfur, iron and other minerals that trap the gold inside. This makes it easier to then recover the gold by conventional leaching processes.

Before the use of the bugs, there was no economical way of extracting the very tiny amounts of gold burried deep in low-grade, so called refractory ore, which usually ended up in waste piles at mine sites.

Now the bacteria make it possible to turn this waste into gold, literally. The method is called bio-oxidation. In 1995, the Newmont Gold Company alone recovered 15,000 ounces of gold from what would otherwise have been wasterock by using these little bugs. The technical names of these valuable bacteria are Thiobacillus ferroxidans and Leptospirillum ferroxidans. By helping produce gold from waste, they also save energy, increase efficiency and expand our nation's gold reserves.

( Source: an article from the Gold Institute )

aj ...
I dont know about mena .. can you type
me a wee clue ??

Yep. Selling protection is the racket. Licensing to protect you. Cops to protect you. Regulations to protect you from yourself.
It's bad, John. They have closed the Office of Justice of the Peace and federalized most Sheriffs. The magistrate is just a cop not in uniform. The federal magistrate judge ( not a member of the judiciary ) is akin to a commisioner in reconstruction tribunals. All the forms, due process, and procedures of law established in a thousand years of struggle for self-government in England are in disuse or disrepair.

Spot + 5%.

I'll be careful,I'm a trained drinker with
professional memory...

Hey, chick-teacher is no problem, will ship you
one if you really want to learn Russian - but
remember, you got to feed her - she is gonna
be blond like a gold...Are you ready for visa
support...and bunch of other support too?

Ye Testimony of Abl-Al Hazred
http://www.eerie.fr/~alquier/HPL/azif/book1/n_hazred.html

Thought to learn a bit about Arabic poetry. Was transfixed by this piece.
The story, the layout, the wonderfully evocative drawings...

Mo in To
Carabella is right, just don't call me Australian without expecting a pennance of a gold piece to widders and orphans.

One interesting goldbuggery thing about this Auckland ( Hey this ain't no 3rd world country, no no. ) power crisis bought a couple of mapes from a dealer in town. I walk into candlight on the counters and around the till. After me a blue-rinsed matron actually singed her hair peering through a glass counter. The dealer, he's a little worried. trade is slow. I make a good bargain. Hand him my EFTPOS card. No 'tricity. I say, "I'll just go across the road to the Bank for Cash." Course the bank is closed and the electronic tellers aren't working either. I go back into the shop, shrug my shoulders. He says he'll take a cheque! Never, before have I given anything but cash or a bank draft for bullion.

Daley criticizes Japan for failing to revive economy.

``The worst thing Asian countries could do right now is throw up more barriers or fail to make good on existing commitments to open their markets,'' he said. ``There would be no quicker way to prolong the crisis or to undermine U.S. support for Asian recovery.''

``We are optimistic that ( Suharto's ) commitment to implement IMF ( reforms ) will be fulfilled,'' he said. It would be a ``terrible situation,'' he said, if the government delayed much longer in taking tough measures under the IMF program.
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1004.htm

Starting to look like Clinton is going to take us all down with him.

HighRise

Yes,you too can have yer very own goldbug.

http://www.gityergoldbug.com

Makes a nice pet too!!

Hey aurator, I still get a kick out of that 'up periscope.'
Pop up, look around, decide. Toontown.

can't get to the URL you posted

Oklahoma Senate approves castration bill

Clinton better watch his step, there may be a movement under way.

The Oklahoma Senate, which turned down Sen. Frank Shurden's bill almost 20 years ago, voted 37-10 this time in favor of allowing judges to order the castration of rapists and child molesters.

Such criminals have ``a driving sex urge that makes them animals,'' Shurden said. ``They're no longer human beings. They act like animals. They are animals. It's time to treat them like animals.''

The bill now goes to the House.
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1020.htm

Do You Think - The United States Congress may get some ideas form Oklahoma?

HighRise

That reminds of a time quite a while ago when I was peddling policies. A friend of mine with a sense of humor ivited me over to make the pitch to his neighbor, a fellow who made his living by logging in the deep woods. Now, there I was in dim light, as it happened, broaching the subject of life insurance with a fellow whose ancestors had likely been afoot with Pettigrew and who himself could have passed for one of them on home leave. "Life insurance" was a term the meaning of which we had not in common. Needless to say, the matter got no further than to establish he could pertect his own self.

Truth and Error--We never think of working a permanent good in any other way than instilling the truth; nor do we ever dream that error would answer our purpose equally well, if we could only succeed in making it pass for truth. Any man would spurn the shameless effrontery of the scorner who should tell him that the good of society and of its individual members would be equally well promoted by teaching them to lie and steal and murder, provided we could only persuade them that these things were right. That man can be elevated in their moral character, or in any way benefitted by being taught to receive error as truth, is as monstrous an absurdity and as palpable a contradiction to all the lessons of experience as can be conceived. Man is so made as to be swayed to good only by the truth. His moral nature cannot respond to any other influence.
Albert B. Dod ( American, 1805-1845 )
Mozel ( American, 1998 )

Goodnight. God Bless.

at midnight. Rubin & his minions can prescribe whatever medicine they wish, but the patient will only progress from comotose to lethargic.

for Mozel
I saw this coming and left 17 years ago .. became
outlaw.
for Oris
Regarding Russian chick teacher ... Im your man.
for SDR er
Outstanding.. I Ibn al Crus'ti - salute you ..
Al'lah O akbar

That was a wonderfully expressed post and I am in your debt for the honor shown.

I think the Turks & Caicos Islands are one of the better tax havens right now. Politically very stable, hungry for growth in the offshore industry ( formation an maintenance cost total about $1500 per year minimum ( maybe $2500 with extra services - you need to make you deal up front like you would with a CPA or lawyer ) per corporation or trust ) , no exchange controls, US $ is official currency, legal system geared for tax haven industry, good communication ( direct dial for about $1.30 per minute ) , small but adequate financial community ( everyone knows everyone like in a small town ) ( some Canadians ) , eastern time zone, and no information exchange agreement on taxes with the US govt., and of course no income, estate or inheritance taxes.
Caymans expensive and have recently entered into deal with US to provide tax info on US citizens. Bermuda expensive and geared more to high rollers. Bahamas and Nevis some political instability. British Virgin Islands ???.
RE Turks & Caicos, Barclays PLC and Bank of Nova Scotia have branches there. RBC Dominion Securities and British West Indies Securities ( they use encrypted e-mail and also will set up and maintain a coropration for you ) are two brokers I know of there.
You can find a good deal of info on the web site of Business Monitor ??.. Run tax havens or Turks & Caicos thru a search engine. Poke around and you can get some e-mail addresses of people who form corporations for you, act as your registered agent, and will act as nominee shareholder, directors, officers etc.
The cost work out so that at $40,000 of $50,000 it starts to work out to your advantage in spite of the costs. The government there has a Financial Services Commission that has a partial list ( names, addresses, phone numbers ) of Accountants, Lawyers, Banks, Trusts, Registered Agents, Stock Brokers and the like ( available for download on the Internet somewhere ) . If you make a contact you can call them to confirm his credentials.
You will need to jump through a few hoops to get a corporate bank account opened there. $1,000 mininum plus you need a letter of reference from your US bank plus copy of passport or US birth record and driver's license all copied and taken to a notary to certifies that the copies are made from originals he examined. The hoops are required because they want to avoid dealing with real criminals so they want to know who is behind the corporation, but all this info is protected by strict secrecy laws on the financial services industry. All takes a few weeks but all can be handled by e-mail, fax phone call and maybe one $35 fedex overnighter.
The advantage irrespective of tax is having money out of the country really unavailable to creditors or tax seisure. Also should the US institute exchange conrtols in the future you will already have a bundle out where you can convert it to any other currency or gold as you desire.
US tax law basically taxes you on your share of the corporation's earnings. Because it is really difficult for the US government to know you have the corporation people often keep the whole deal secret and say screw the US government. It is common for your agent to act as a nominee shareholder for you and issue the shares in their own name with a trust agreement which effectively makes you the real secret owner.
If you want signature authority on the bank account or brokerage account you also have the problem of flying in the face of another US law which requires you to report that signature authority. Some people again ignore that law because it is nearly impossible for the US govt to know ( you don't need checks, everything is wire transfer, and one way to spend you money here is to have a corporate VISA ) . You can hire someone like a Chartered Accountant there to have this authority and you secretly issue the instructions thru him, plus he will receive all you mail and even keep books for an additional fee..
It amazes me that there are thousands of these Exempted companies operating in these various islands while the islanders and their US customers know the laws, yet with a wink and a nod the corporations get set up, the islanders have a much higher standard of living as a result, and lots of people are paying no taxes.
These island nations have a vested interest in helping you not pay tax or pay as little as possible and everyone understands the real deal. Hell, the US government acts as a tax haven for foreigners allowing them to earn interest or trade tax free here. That is why your foreign corporation can buy and sell US securities, US common stocks etc. all tax free. Were they to crack down on all this the capital flight our of the US would be dramatic.
"To pay tax or not to pay tax, that is the question." It all boils down to your view of the legitimacy of taxes in the first place and the extent to which you are willing to go to keep what is rightfully yours, should that be your view. In part people make decisions about going along with the tax system on the basis of how much they can get away with without getting in trouble. It is no wonder that self employed individuals who manage to keep payments to themselves from being reported on 1099's are the biggest group of non filers in the US and they I understand number in the millions.
Boilerplate disclaimer: I am not providing you legal or tax advide nor am I advocating violating any constitutional law. I am merely conveying to you what I have learned about some of the goings on in the world.

G'day mate. You Kiwis are getting some practice in for the 'end of the civilized world' scenario. I wonder how many of our North American mates are going to survive a bitterly cold winter without electricity?? How many of them have wood heaters and adequate stocks of fuel?? Where I live it doesn't get THAT cold, but I have made sure we will be warm and cozy without electricity. Have also got a good sized generator from my Papua New Guinea days, when the electricity was running every other day ( if we were lucky!! ) .

As per your ( Kiwi ) experience, I think more discussion is due on basics like eatin', drinkin' & seein' in the dark in a 'warm' and 'safe' abode.

ANOTHER topic that needs discussing on this site::::

Yanks/Rebs/Canucks/Euros S.A.ans and OTHERS welcome to join in.

Here it is:::: JIN reported that gold was being sold in Indonesian markets this week ( very black markets ) , ie, illegally and traded for 'goods'. In countries like the USA and her northern province, Oz, and N.Z.-- WHAT and HOW and WHERE are/will gold/silver going to be sold/traded for in CRUNCH times. I have given this some thought. My gold is going to be useless as a trading vehicle in 99% of Aussie shops. Chinese restaurants will probably give me several bags of rice, canned goods etc. for my gold. Banks--those that are still open--will be useless. Who wants to buy paper anyway?? Establishing a market for 'real' money may be difficult in a society where 'real' money is 60 years out of date!! I would appreciate words of wisdom from my Kitco mates whom have thought this through better than I.

The Soupreem Court has ruled a 1099 creates no presumption of income.

ALL: From the "For What It's Worth" Department, the most recent issue of Elliot Wave Theorist ( arrived today ) states categorically that the Silver bull is now officially OVER! They called the top to be at $7.40 and ( sure enough ) it went to $7.45 before plunging $1.50. Pretty good call, except that they were calling for a silver bull market for about three years before it finally materialized. I find Prechter and his group to be very entertaining. Following their recommendations, though, can be EXTREMELY costly. With regard to silver, it seems that in their zeal to make the market fit their mystical 5 wave formula they've neglected to factor the fundamental supply shortage into their calculations. I hear rumors from the trading floor that deliveries won't be able to be fulfilled. If so, there should be more than a brief spike up in prices before the bear comes back from hibernation. Only time will tell, but given how consistently wrong EWT has been in the past ( with the one exception mentioned above ) , my moeny is still riding on silver to go considerably higher in the near future. So far they've been a pretty consistent contrary indicator.

SDR_er
I am honoured that you thought of me with your 1:07. I have heard of this text, the Necrominicon. Now I shall allow myself to be transported to paradise.

Ibn al Crus'ti aka The Outlaw Crusty Wheels
caught you at last!!!!!!!



Dr Canabeera


Not drunk is he who from the floor,
Can rise alone and still drink more;
But drunk is he who prostrate lies,
Without the power to drink or rise.

Thomas Love Peacock

Your topic of paying people with gold who are accustomed to printed government paper is on the same vein with SDRer's search for some objective, constant measure.
I don't think there is any. The market evaluates what it will exchange for what differently in different circumstances. At first, Jin reported, if I recall correctly, that people were exchanging gold for currency. Now they have skipped an unnecessary intermediate step of exchange. I think the coin dealer accepting a check in Auckland is a similar example of market adjustment to changes in the commercial environment. Asking for price quotations in gold as well as printed paper will get the ball rolling. Getting proper change, I would say, will be the greatest initial difficulty.

Thanks for the 23:13 post. Schiff was truely a "man" willing to fight for his rights, not something many have the courage to do. I applaud the courageous.

One thing his book encouraged me to do was to learn how to prepare my own tax returns. And, that in itself, has given me a tremendous return on my investment in his book LGB. Amazing what I've learned since. Now, if I could only match that kind of return in my gold investments I could sleep well at night.

Does that mean that if you have a 1099 filed with your name and socsec number on it and do not file any return you don't hear from the IRS boys?
If one were not to file returns it would be nice to have multiple fallback positions and the ideal first position would be no reports to the IRS whatsoever.
Actually, I understand as long as you honestly believe you are not required to file that you cannot be successfully criminally prosecuted. It seems that there was a United ?? pilot who listened to some tax protest organization and did not file and the derelict nine ruled he was only subject to civil liability.
I have read Schiffs books and like his reasoning, yet he spent time in the small cage. I can't help but admire him. I do not think I would have the courage to individually confront the gov't directly. I am more geared to flight than fight.

My major concern is that there is no 'gold culture' in Western countries. We will have to look for Asians who appreciate 'real money'. Where I live will be no difficulty, as we have all of the Asian embassies here. But what is Joe Blow on Main Street USA going to do with his gold when 'Crunch Time' hits??

Are you asking this question, or is it the forum? I had not noticed that others in the forum were interested in my opinions regarding my conclusions.

You posed an interesting question. The US is not an island by itself. The existing above ground gold would have to be distributed world wide, otherwise the world outside the US would be destitute and poverty stricken beyond belief if gold was the only unit of exchange.

Several assumptions would have to be made, and all calculations are estimates.

1 ) Total existing gold above ground is +/- 120,000 metric tons.
2 ) 1 metric ton = 32,150 troy oz
3 ) 120,000 mt times 32,150oz = 3,858,000,000 troy oz's.
4 ) World population = +/- 5,500,000,000 people.
5 ) Assume 25% of world population would be able to purchase or own gold.
6 ) 5,500,000,000 times 25% = 1,375,000,000 people eligible for gold purchase or ownership.
7 ) Assume 5 yrs forward gold production of 2,500 tons/yr times 32,150 troy oz = 401,875,000 troy oz's ( use 500,000,000 oz's ) added to 3,858,000,000 oz's = 4,358,000,000 oz's for distribution.
8 ) Let's use a figure of 5,000,000,000 oz's for simplification.
9 ) If this gold were distributed evenly, each person would have possession of 5 bil oz's divided by 1.375 bil people or 3.64 oz's/person.

Now we know, or should know, that +/- 2% of this 1.375 bil people will own 90% of the worlds wealth. 2% of 1.375 bil people = 27,500,000 people would own 90% of 5 bil oz's. This leaves 5 bil times 90% = 4.5 bil oz's distributed between 27.5 mil people. The balance of 500 mil oz's would be distributed between 1.3475 bil people.

a ) The wealthiest would own 4.5 bil oz's/27.5 mil people = 164 +/- oz/person.

b ) The average person would own 500 mil oz's/1.3475 bil people = 0.40+/- oz/person.

All of the above are calculated using reasonable assumptions and even distributions. I've left silver out of the equation because I have no idea of what the above ground world supply is. For practical purposes, assume the above gold distributions are doubled to account for silver, as an estimate.

Wealthiest = 164oz * 2 = 328oz/person @ $300/oz = $98,400.00/ elite.

Average person = 0.40 * 2 = ) .80oz/person @ $300/oz = $240.00/avg person.


The availability for 100% backing of PM's as currency in this modern world would not be adequate for world currency demand. Even if gold was valued at 10 or 20 times the existing price to $3,000/$6,000/oz, it still would not be adequate. IMHO.

P.S. I know that I'm abrasive at times and I regret my actions if I have offended anyone. So, if you or anyone else wants to take a shot at me, be my guest.

SDRer: Thanks for your post to mozel!

mozel: I read your posts too.

And so also were you courageous, and a man, and you have my admiration for it.

In the previous post, assume that all gold dealers/coin shops etc. have been shut down by your beneficent gubmint.

mozel
I fear you may have misunderstood Callabella. I realised I had not thought through the tola bar issue as clearly as he. Nick says that chinese gold may be worth more immediately after a paper conflagration precisely because Chinese, S.E. Asians, Indians have a long and unbroken belief in the value of precious. ( Who broke the West's belief? ) And therefore, will have the knowledge of the tradeable value of gold for essentials. I have picked up several small chinese bars for beauty and curiousity, but I had not percieved their liquidity because I was focussing on assay costs. So I declined the offer of 10 tola bars....
i shall reconsider... I wonder if they'll take a cheque?


Thank you candelabra

Thanks, but just so you know I am a female, I know we are a minority on this site but I am happy to be in the company of so many great men such as yourself and others here.

I am in my 50's and have been somewhat reclusive since I moved to a rural area 15 years ago. ( I enjoy living in the natural habitat as opposed to an old style zoo. ) However, I don't see my old city friends and don't go to the old parties where light drugs were part of the fun. Yes Bill, I did inhale, but I havn't in years.
Anyway, I saw Jesse Jackson railing against drugs on CSPAN a few years back and he was complaining that over 40,000 tons of marijuana were estimated to be imported on the West coast alone that year.
I pulled out my calculator.
40,000 x 2000 lbs per ton = 80,000,000 lbs.
80,000,000 lbs x 16 oz per lb = 1,280,000,000 ozs.
1,280,000,000 ozs. / 350,000,000 population =3.657 ozs. per person.
And what about what is home grown or comes in the East or Gulf coasts.
It seems that the conclusion is that just about everyone but me is stoned.
The point is the hipocracy of these drug laws.
Freedom is the opposite of slavery. If we are slaves we are owned by others, but if we are free we own ourselves.
If we own ourselves then certainly we have certain rights over ourselves and can use and or dispose of ourselves as we see fit so long as we do not commit acts of agression against our neighbors. Certainly one of the righs of ownership would be to ingest or regergitate whatever we pleased from vitamins to drugs.

Frustrated
There are, fortunately, a number of women posting on the site. From time to time I cringe and some of the inadvertent and intentional sexism. But then I remember that our American friends still have a lot to learn.

New Zealand was the first country on this sweet gold world to give women the vote. No woman over here would take some of this crap.

Keep up the good work!

OTOH you might be suprised by the Chinese meaning of "Golden Gate."

CRUNCH TIME ( Doom and Gloom Hour )

No shops open, no food, no gas ( petrol ) , no electricity, no piped-in water, no piped-in gas. No radio, tv, internet ( KITCO ) etc.

OK folks--there are armed, marauding gangs running around your neighbourhood and you dare not go out. How long will your family survive?? Assume it is mid-winter. Do you eat? Are you warm?

Now--things improve--the gangs have been brought under control but everything else is closed. You know there are some Vietnamese farmers on the edge of town who have heaps of food. You go down to visit Joe Bloggs, who owns the gas station, and pull out a nice, shiny .999 maple!! "I'll trade you this for your pick up truck and a full tank of gas" you say. When he finishes laughing, he pulls out his 45 and shoots you!!!

There is no 'gold culture' established in the West, folks. Think about it!!! Ripost requested!!

We need more of the superior gender here. My wife 'thinks' differently than I do. It has taken me 30 years to figure this out and appreciate her point of view--which is invariably ( but not always ) correct. Welcome.

Aurator- You have mail.
Haggis- You out there? I can now give my report in full about mining in RSA and drinking chilled Vodka with John Disney.

It may be truly said, I think, that a man who is ignorant of his rights at law might as well not have them protected by law. The making of knowledge of law and of process of law into a specialty monopolized by the bar association, whose predecessors suppressed the 13th Amendment which was intended to prevent this state of affairs, makes fear and ignorance the ally of those who would separate you illegally from your honestly earned goods.

There is nothing simple or easy about the legal system as it is today. But, there are men in this country of great courage, determination, and conviction, and I don't count myself among them, who have conquered fear and acquired knowledge. You will know the pretender, well meaning or not, from the genuine article by his fruits. Seek to find. Verify by the fruits.

The Supreme Court has stated five tests of a man's conviction to distinguish it from his mere preference and one of those is to be willing to risk death. Merely preferring to have rights is not enough to secure them, in or out of law.

I will say this, too. If the people knew the law and the Constitutions, federal and state, as they should if they wish to preserve and to pass any blessings of freedom to their posterity, there are still men on the bench who know and uphold the law. But, we are a nation who has not tended the roof to our house. And if we do not soon repair it, the whole dwelling must tumble down. And then we shall be without any shelter from every political storm.

All my Maples are 9999, squire, and I'll thank you to not imply otherwise.

Have you been watching too many Mad Max movies Cinemerra? I can hardly see Norman, hat-sized-IQ spawn of furtive-behind-the-bike-shed-school-dance, now petrol-pump attendant ( okee gas-station ) smoking his old mate Cerebellum away with the pump-action shot-gun he keep hidden under the counter.

No mate. When I think about it, although it may be true most people are two cheques away from bankruptcy, and a fortnight of now power from starvation, I do not think that in this neck of the woods we have to worry about maurauding gangs. That is except, I suppose for the escaped prisoners ( yeah, you guessed it, they're mostly Australian ) from the local High Security Prison.... aw shoot. Nicoletto, thanks for helping me think through this...


away to shoot a few Aussies before they shoot me....

Interesting, but if gold were to hit $3000 to $6000 per oz., I believe the mineswould shutter, as most indiviguals and users would not be able to pay such prices.
On the hand, if governments bought the metal at those prices, it might work out, what troubles me is the existing paper debt. How would it be handled?
If it were gradually payed up and went back into circulation, it probably would be inflationary. If it were used for new productive investment, it would be positive, that is if the new production didn't get out of hand. Maybe the former Government bond holders could purchase some of the gold, but at $3000 to $6000, I wonder.
We need a gold back currency in a country controlled by the people, but we don't need a fed.
The government should never pay interest on its own currency. Treasury officials should be elected and subject to impeachment and oversight by the people.

Manly courage is not defined by gender, dear modern Molly Pitcher. Mankind includes us all. But, vive la difference.

No Nick, there's nothing superior about a woman.

mozel - well said.

aurator - I haven't been the recipient of any sexism on this site. I had a girlfriend who traveled quite a bit to the Orient on business and I wouldn't be at all surprised by the meaning of Golden Gate, but nevertheless, please DON'T enlighten me.

Nick@C - G'day to you too. I certainly don't consider myself to be of the superior gender - especially at this site. I have sooooo much to learn about the gold market. We females do tend to think differently on many topics, however, when it comes to the topic of gold...which I will now try to get back to before Bart gives me a warning... gender really doesn't come into play - unless you are trying to decide which gold gift would be the most appreciated by your wife.

Despite the calculations, I do not understand the impediment.
Think of gold for a moment as Reichmarks if you will. In 1918 the price of an egg was one quarter of a Reichmark. In November, 1923 it became 80 billion. Was this because eggs were rare or because Reichmarks became more plentiful ? The exchange price of all things adjusts to the quantity of the medium of exchange in circulation.

It is when debt is created that exceeds the quantity of the medium of exchange that a problem arises with that medium of exchange. That is the problem Congress created in the 1920's by entering into gold contracts with bankers for loans that exceeded the whole world supply of gold by 97%. And that was on top of the unpayable gold contracts of the period 1860-65.

The federal government is in permanent bankruptcy. Every revenue bill in enacted as an "emergency measure". You can find it explicitly stated in many state enactments. Congress uses the phrase "and for other purposes" to disguise what they are doing. Since we can never pay debt with debt and a bankrupt federal government, governing by necessity and emergency, is not bound by the Constitution, what shall be done ? Perhaps Y2K will rescue us.

mozel
"mankind" embraces us all
"manly courage" excludes women.
for courage is independant of gender. It was intentional sexism. my friend, still, I hope.

DROP IN ASIA'S DEMAND FOR GOLD.
Tuesday 3 March, 1998 ( 4:05pm AEDT )





Gold demand in Asia, excluding India has plunged
ten-percent to 742 tonnes last year due to the regional
economic and currency crisis.

The World Gold Council says demand in the region has
come under pressure from economic and financial austerity
programmes in some countries as well as currency and stock
market turmoil.

India, the single largest consumer country for gold, is NOT
treated as a part of the Asian market by the World Gold
Council.



Return to the World News Menu

plus ...news from the Asia Pacific Region in Indonesian, Chinese and Tok Pisin

 1998 Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Tue Mar 3 16:30:00 1998 ( AEDT )

You writing style reminds me of something I would read in the autobiography of one of the Founding Fathers. You have a gift.
Sad to say I have thought many times about what each generations failure to make a stand has done to the next. There was a time that I would have been more willing to take get involved, than at the present however.
My veiw now is that standing in front of a freight train does not work as well as getting off the tracks. Essentially I see government as a monopoly and monopolies need not please their customers nor their employees. The monopoly has never before been successfully broken except for short burst after the collapse of the previous monopoly in the interim before the entrenchment of the new monopoly. The various government charters ( constitutions ) may say that I have rights, but when the management of the monopoly says my right is not a right they win. Fortunately monopolies are inefficient and I like finding my rights in the cracks where they don't look.
I am also encouraged by the thoughts of Davidson, Rees-Mogg in their new book "The Sovereign Individual." Sort of a multi chapter repetition of the same thought, the agricultural age gave rise to kingdoms which allowed organized plunder by the powerful of a now stationary populus. The agricultrual age gave way to the industrial age which made possible larger organized plunder ( nations ) and now the industrial age is rapidly giving way to the information age.
They think that escape into cyberspace will keep us from being sitting targets and will force a withering of tax revenue for any government not providing an effective product.
It is amazingly easy to go foreign with investments as I described in my little Turks & Caicos post. My wife has been selling junk like gangbusters on the E-Bay auction, all not subject to sales tax and gee, she hasn't received the first 1099 yet. And here we are discussing the evel plunder Americans suffer, me sitting out in the middle of the Missouri Ozarks listening to the cayotees howel and you maybe halfway across the country.
I hope they are correct and I hope people catch on really quickly that cyberspace is a way to win freedom. And we havn't even talked about hiding all this with encryption.

Jeil! Jeil!

"I hope people catch on really quickly that cyberspace is a way to win freedom"


The Independent Republic of Kitco

is born....

what a precious, feisty baby!

I fear your imagination has been captured by the dream merchants of Hollywood who have found a market for producing nightmares. Likke Cape Fear.

We are social creatures. Society is by nature voluntary, at invitation. We mutually benefit from the voluntary associations we form with others. This was once the genius set free on this continent and it remains in our collective unconsciousness. Today, government exists in opposition to it. But, after a period of adjustment to shock, if this unnatural imposed organization is withdrawn, Americans will form committees and associations and carry on with common sense and common law. Those who breech the peace or flout the law of the golden rule will seek shelter, companionship, and safety in numbers in vain. Sure, there will be incidents. Exceptional incidents. And in the big cities where people have been disarmed and policed out of reason, adjustment will be longer and rougher.

But, gold does not rot, does not waste, and is an honest, true measure from day to day. By negotiation commerce will go on by mutual necessity and for mutual benefit.

auracious: "I've driven them all away."

aura_in aspic: "Well you ate too much Ginseg."

auracious: "How was I to know it was so, strong."
aura_in aspic: "You should have supped it like a possible poison plant."
auracious: "What?"
aura_in aspic: "Essential survival skill I shall teach you another time."
auracious: "Well the Ginseng was so cheap."
aura_in aspic: "That's true."
auracious: "Unbelievably price in local Korean shop last week. So I thought it must be inferior aussie/yankee ginseng. I Bought a bucket load of vitality at fire sale prices. The shop was glad for my business."
aura_in aspic: "Go shear some sheep."


The little~daughter waves of the Tsunami are lapping on the foreshore.

I may be naive...but intentional...I think not...at least I hope not.

aura_in aspic: "Oh Brilliant! Now your halucinating banner ads!"
auracious: "I had no idea the Ginseng was so strong!"
aura_in aspic: "They think you're talking drugs."
auracious: "Nope. I am talking about Ginseng root, not extract, not pill nor potion, not potage nor lotion, but root."
aura_in aspic: "You like rooting then?"
auracious: "Oh yes, especially with Ginseng."

Go figure

http://community.net/~timlig/jonnya.html

Frustrated
I stand corrected. Inadvertant through inattention.

@aurator Was the origin of your error in the reading or the rewriting of my post ? Did PC originate in NZ ? I always thought male chauvinist pig was a label of US origin, but perhaps I have been mistaken.

@Jeil My beef with Mees-Rogg ( sp ) & co. is their solution of avoidance or something like that. Self-interest, self-defense, and self-preservation are undeniably the starting point. But, bullies have to be resisted. It's a playground lesson. I enjoy reading their theories of history. But, their version is a little too impersonal, too detached for me. This site is a wonderful, social place and I think this internet creation in general is a percolator, the fumes from which, are even coming faintly to the senses of the other society which is not directly connected to it. And more so, tomorrow, I think.

If I have the gift you so generously claimed for me, I intend to make the most of it.

The only real difference between you and me is our plumbing...Go GOLD !!!

Bro2bro
may I call you that?

YYURYYUBICURYY4ME

that might keep you busy for a moment or 2. In the meantime, with or without Ginseng, Johnny Appleseed means only cider to me.

I hope your feelings about waves arising in markets will not affect your life's committment to assisting waves to arise from the strings of your fiddle.
I would forget Prechter and read Pythagoras and Plato if you want to understand how the two types of waves are related. Mystical? Maybe, but lovely to listen to and watch in any event

mozel

PC. My butt.



Frustated began:
Date: Tue Mar 03 1998 02:08
Frustrated ( @mozel ) ID#298259:
"Thanks for the 23:13 post. Schiff was truely a "man" willing to fight for his rights, not something many have the courage to do. I applaud the courageous. "

+++

Note please, for the hard of hearing, Frustrated acknowledges, as do all free sovereign individuals, that courage, and the courageous are to be applauded.

To which mozel, whose exposition is fine, but whose sexism needs refining, replied:

"Date: Tue Mar 03 1998 02:16
mozel ( @Frustrated ) ID#153102:

"And so also were you courageous, and a man, and you have my admiration for it."
+++

Not only were you courageous, Frustated, but, even better, you were a man, and therefore worthy of admiration.

+++

Deeper in the mire you fall....

Then, upon the revelation, made before, that Frustrated was a woman and

immersing yourself, amigo? I wonder, in the turgid miasma of magical thinking:

"Manly courage is not defined by gender."


Oh really?


No PC crap from this fine fellow. Just wonder at your lack of appreciation for half the human race. But then again, I suppose you've never met a kiwi woman, eh?

Had you not chosen to unmask, the words were still for the deed pefectly suited. Does that not exonerate my intention ? If courage be said to have a gender, that would be slighting men or women, one or the other. It is the deed and not the gender that imparts the character of the actor. And yours has been revealed.

BBL

Strad: I don't think goldbugs ( silver flies? ) are into waves very much as are speculators in other commodities and financial instruments. For instance I'll bet no one has commented on the important C major chord ( carolan spiral f21 ) yesterday to the 9/15/1989 gold low. This resonance is giving pause to gold's flight as we scribble. But since we are so near those major chords of the last two weeks ( to 9/23/80 and 1/18/94 ) , it should be only temporary. These techniques are used quite a bit in financial futures, but scarcely at all by gold traders who are otherwise so philosophical about nearly everything.

aurophile


you got my attention. Spiral Calendar f21. Where were you last May when i was onto caralan?

will you share your prognostications?

chewbacca_more_ginseng@rator

well you found me out

Crusty Wheels

I am overawed by your prose, mired in unrefined sexism. You have shaded me. You are justly proud of your kiwi women. And one of them, at least, should be gratified at your... well, it can't be chivalry... let's simply say your ready wordsmithing on behalf of their equal sexual, social, political, civil, human, and other rights. In my limited experience, American women generally can speak for themselves. And Frustrated certainly can.

Adieu, compadre. And thanks for the laugh.

Ersel
No No No

Date: Tue Mar 03 1998 04:39
Ersel ( @Frustrated... ) ID#228283:
The only real difference between you and me is our plumbing...Go GOLD !!!


_____


Truly my friends, you are barbarians.


hurummmphhhhh

mutter mutter mutter they can't all be passed their use by date? I am afraid they are..



No wonder Crusty became an outlaw. You americans are all crazy and I respectfully request that you leave this Canadian sight and take your anal-retenetive concerns over your 401's or whateverthehelltheyare and find another site for your insipid Tax chicanery.


LookingtogerthrownoffthissitecosImfree@ish_aurator

mozel
adieu compadre. It's been fun! go gold!

Aurator: I am pleased to learn of your interest in such arcane matters as cycles and waves. When I updated my 1998 spreadsheet in December I was pleasantly surpsed to find so many important dates from 2/20 to 3/2. After missing the 1/12 low by one day ( f24 to the last low of 1980 before the orthodox top on 9/23/80 ) , I suspected that late Febraury would be a top, but since gold played off the stock market bottom of 1/26, it has turned out to be a low. At least so far. ( If you rememeber this stuff from December, forgive my repetition. ) 4/3 and 4/16 ( non Carolan ) look like important dates. The next big cluster is from 5/28 to 6/3. Too early to say what but probably big. Bradley gives some clues, but I'd rather not try to be too clever so early.

I hope this will stimulate you to post on the subject again. Sorry I missed last May's posts. It IS a pain to put up with the inevitable "yuk, yuk" and worse one meets with in this field.

there. dues paid up.

well done aurophile! paying dues! Guns: Foxholes: Monolithic Deity ( ( on my side ) and gold


A quick flick through my filofax reveals it was last April:


Date: Thu Apr 24 1997 00:03 Aurator ( @ village ) :
FIBO: your remarks on Elliot waves relating to fibonacci
numbers of weeks is intriguing. I have previously spent
some time with The Spiral Calendar of Peter Caralan
attempting to correlate the fibonacci numbers of lunar
cycles with market events with little success.
My figurin seems to depend on a finagling factor I am
uncomfortable with. Is there anyone at Kitco who can shine
some light on the relationship of lunar cycle and fibonacci
numbers in markets?
Must confess to leaning toward the view that the markets,
like the future, are essentially unknowable if not random.
Who was it who wrote that attempting to ascertain the
future direction of any market is like gambling on which
side of his tunic the village idiot is going to dribble on?

errata
Peter=Simon Caralan
and the Biblically inclined would be wrong again.

Aurator: I remember how hard it was to learn to ride a cycle as a child, but now I could do it in my sleep. There are other cycle lengths besides Carolan: Fibo, Lucas, etc. The breakthrough for me was being around other folks who do this type of work. There are a number of such folk at the Avid site, although they are not there all the time.

actually it's christopher, the rock ( monolithic? ) upon which the numbers game was founded.

http://207.140.52.31/chat/


This is the site. There is also a frustrated physicist in Durham who archives all the chats. i'll post it for you if you wish to pursue it.

http://aig-www.dur.ac.uk/%7Enandrews/avid-chat/

aurphile

And I remember, when I was a child, looking behind at my teacher who was no longer running beside my brand new christmas present bicycle. He no longer had his hand balancing my bicycle saddle and I cried out for help.
He said
"You are riding a bicycle, now, You don't need my help anymore."
Please advise where I can sup of the intoxicating liquor ( to your President, I mean licker ) of such cycles, these Caralan lunar cycles in free discussion. I've never heard of Lucas --- apart from possum-spotting headlights, and you dont want to know about them....But I crave the next iteration of the Lunar calendar..

With dem possum lights you gonna fit right in over there. A couple of us are kicking some of it around even now.

aurophile
Well we got the Carallan bit right. Christopher! of course.. I have trouble remembering *my* name. Even BJ calls me salty sometimes.

1992 ( when I read the Spiral Calendar, I think ) does not seem so far away, except in memory.

salty kisses taste the same as salty tears

OH Darn

Hallucinatin' Pink Elephants, I mean Banner ads.


time to see if that Ginseng "works"

nite

Albeit a bit unusual, possibly, 2 weeks ago I traded 3 one oz. Eagles
for a toolroom lathe that the guy was askin' $1800 for.About 2 weeks prior to that, I traded 1 Eagle for a M-1 carbine at a gun show, asking price $375.
There is a PM trading culture in the US,but you gotta look for it.
I'm sure this culture will expand proportionately with an increase in PM's value, perhaps at first only among the learned.
I fear, as do others, that our fed. will feel compelled to put a stop to it.

Gold:

350,603 Registered
130,307 Elligible
480,910 Total no change

Silver:

36,531,320 Registered
52,926,545 Elligible
89,457,865 Total change - 637,399

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980303/malaysia_j_2.html

You are right about hypos who call for the end of the world every time a whizkid figures out a new piece of computer code. However the millenium bug has been systematically added to every chip dealing with time by the very best programmers. As well as I know there is only one similar systematic potential time bomb now.

We will know it on 9th September 1999. The date in code will be 9999 ( 4*9 ) . It also is a string for system error in many pre 1985 codes. It causes less harm than Y2K - computers, just refuse to work that day. At the same time it is harder to fix since error messages are a lot looser subject than time/date. If this will work out OK, so will Y2K, if there will be systematic failure 9/9/99 watch out for year 2000.

To verify this ask any regional software manager ( not the ones who sell but theese who maintain systems ) . The man who told that to me was IBM Eastern Europe.

Geb
Geb

I posted the full article by author unknown yesterday that explains how paper money, backed with or without as much gold as possible could work if we the people took our governments to task to be as honest in thier money dealings as most, honorable, decent human beings do every day of thier lives.

These people usually went without and sacrificed in order to pay thier debts. Now, if we could make governments act in the same responsible manner, we would not even need gold.

I remember, when people that were poor but honest workers, could go to the corner drugstore, or hardware store, or wherever, and would be greeted by name ( and respectfully also ) , and need credit. If they were hardworking, had a job, but no collateral, credit was extended to most solely by handshake. Most of these men would never think of stiffing anybody, especially those that befriended them. The majority came into hard times, and without this credit, many honest hardworking families would have perished for want. The main thing is thier debts were paid off, and many times without interest. They learned that thier personal debt was a matter of honor and if they had to go another year, or two, or even three or more, and budget in order to pay off thier debts, they did so. Many became scions of industry and many failed, but not before they had honored thier debts. I know whereof I speak. I was raised in the last great depression. I saw many horrors that impressed me as to man's inhumanity to man. I had an uncle that graduated from Case Western University as a Civil Engineer in 1930. The only job he could get after his graduation was as a salesman for Ideal Macaroni for 9 yrs ( He was one of the lucky ones ) . He eventually practised his profession as an outstanding engineer. In the meanwhile prior, he paid his bills, survived and is extremely wealthy by most standards today. That is what men are made of. We have no one to blame but ourselves. Instead, people are encouraged to live beyond thier means today by dishonest governments and nefarious merchants, etal. No matter how hard the times were back then, this country ( US ) became the place to be. There was no hope for most in the old world. Here they had hope and worked thier tails off to make a life for themselves that was better, honest and decent, than they had before.

EXCERPT:
I define "economics" as "anything that has to do with our physical well-being,
whether it involves an exchange of money or not." Academic economics is only
concerned with money transactions, something which may be measured and
counted. I have little to say about this side of economics, other than to
advocate the full acceptance of John Maynard Keynes. No more "voodoo"
supply-side economics, which quadrupled the national debt during the
Reagan-Bush years. The 1997 tax bill is more voodoo economics, claiming to
be able to cut taxes while balancing the budget. Politicians will always tell us
whatever fairy tale we want to hear.

No administration has ever tried what I call the full-Keynesian counter-cyclical
policy of making taxing and spending adjustments to prevent depression and
inflation. It's not so difficult. It doesn't require a Ph.D. to understand this. It is
taught in every beginning class on economics. To even out the natural bumps
in the free enterprise business cycle, the government should raise taxes and
reduce expenditures ( sounds paradoxical doesn't it? ) during the boom part of
the cycle, running a surplus, something not seen for many years. During the
down side of the cycle, government should lower taxes and raise expenditures,
thus running a slight deficit.

There is nothing wrong with a deficit, so long as it is balanced in the average
by the surpluses. It is only this full Keynesian policy, scientifically rather than
politically applied, which can prevent depressions, reduce the depth of
recessions, and eliminate inflation. To learn more, take economics 101
( something President Clinton clearly understands, since he has halved the
deficit in his first administration ) .

CONCLUSSION:

THERE IS ONLY ONE TRUE GOLD, MAN HIMSELF. When we take responsibility for our actions and make our government act responsible, prosperity and wealth for all will be attainable. Search your SOULS. How many of us are living beyond thier means? How many of us are working 2, maybe 3 jobs, and are still in debt over our heads? How many are risking thier life savings irresponsibly on investments they have no business being in or can afford? How many are shooting for the moon with these investments in the hope thier ship will come in? How many sacrifice that dinner out, that vacation, that mercedes, that sailboat, to get out of debt and save that gold coin for a rainy day. If you have, then you are a true man ( or woman ) and I would say a humanitarian. These are the actions that will save our country and the world, not gold, nor silver.

Where would this world be today without a sufficient money supply that made the expansion and advancements we have today to support the peoples of this world? Even with this funny money, the majority live far better today than our forfathers did. We just ( big word ) have to reign in greedy scumbags and governments to make this world better yet. And do'nt tell me about overpopulation, I do'nt buy it. Every man, woman and child has an unalliable right to exist, by the grace of GOD! Who or what has the right to tell you or me my father, mother, wife or child has no right to be here. When the elitists can tell us it's for our own good and that the population has to be controlled, they'll do it either by war, famine, pestulence or other devious, contrived ways. That will be the time I no longer want to exist in a God foresaken world.

THEREIN LIES THE WEALTH OF THE WORLD, MAN HIMSELF, HIS HONOR, HIS INVENTIVENESS, HIS MORALITY, HIS LOVE OF LIFE, FAMILY, AND COUNTRY!

GOD BLESS AMERICA, THE LAND THAT GAVE HOPE AND FORTITUDE TO MANY REGARDLESS OF IT'S MANY SHORTCOMINGS.

P.S. No way, no how, is there enough PM's in this world for a 100% backing of currency to supply sufficient money demand in the world as it is today. You can rationalize all you want, and I still do'nt buy it. Amen!

The bank of Portugal made statements yesterday suggesting that gold's reputation was no longer of "mythical quality" and therefore it was no longer justified as a central Bank reserve asset, which is kind of bearish for Gold don't you think so? Also, the bank of Portugal will be transferring 1 billion worth of capital to the EU with approximately 20 million expected to be in Gold so as expected, the EU will hold some Gold but not as a huge of a percentage as too many traders/investors would have expected!

By reading the week-end's comments here at Kitco, it looks like some people once again have put way too much hope and emotions into a normal little rally that every commodity does once in a while.

Yeah, it's good to be on the alert for a potential bottom but let's not forget that Gold is not like it used to be and I still suspect that in 1998 and beyond, many other commodities will provide much better opportunities to make money grow....a goal that all of us should strive for, right?

Be open minded and look around!

Jeil, thanks for the brief information. I think that I will move my paper and physical to the island. What are the chances of storing physical PM's on the island? Have you been there? Prices of real estate? Hotel accommodation? Sounds like a place a man can do some business. Main language spoken on the island?

Sheesh! Meager pickings this morning for us Lurkers. Gold and silver both take a hit in London overnight and no one seems to notice or care.

I guess being intellectually cute takes precedence over the mundane doings of the marketplace.

Excellent piece of writing.

C'mon guys; wake-up call! There's bunch of lurker lambs out here waiting for guidance!

If interested in heavens in Carribea ( language, real estate, accommodation etc ) check http://www.interknowledge.com/indx02.htm, lots of background information there

Geb

About 4000 contracts have taken deliveries since last Friday but the pace since before the week-end declined. Also for now, lease rates are somewhat supportive but not firm enough to spark another immediate massive rally.

Deliveries will have to increase soon or the daily warehouse inventory figures will need to drop further in order to make Silver react more to the upside.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980303/japan_saka_2.html

If interested in background of Carribea...

www.interknowledge.com/indx02.htm

It is only money my friend. No more, no less.

I would post this ( stolen from AVID ) ~~~apologies in advance to Bart~~~

Yesterday scientists revealed that beer contains small traces of female hormones.To
prove their theory, the scientists fed 100 men 12 pints of beer and observed that 100% of
them gained weight, talked excessively without making sense, became emotional, and
couldn't drive. No further testing is planned.

Yesterday scientists revealed that beer contains small traces of female hormones.To prove their theory, the scientists fed 100 men 12 pints of beer and observed that 100% of them gained weight, talked excessively without making sense, became emotional, and couldn't drive. No further testing is planned.
~~~~~~~~~~
09:00 Mitsubishi 10:00 New Home Sales, Leading Indicators 10:30 Greenspan, Rubin Testify 14:00 Greenspan 14:30 Announce: 3-Month, 6-Month Bills 14:55 Redbook 16:00 SF Fed Pres Parry 10:00 Greenspan Testifies ( Budget ) 13:30 Fed Gov Kelley Speaks 18:30 Money Mag/ABC News Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Last year bankruptcies hit an all-time record ( their second straight ) . And excepting the 1983-1984 and 1993-1994 periods they have risen every year since 1980. Ought we worry about this? Depends on who you are. From a micro perspective the banks are right to fret because bankruptcies go hand in hand with higher credit card charge-off rates; that reduces the profitability of credit card lending. But from a macro perspective we care about the absolute level of bankruptcies only if it damages debt burdens and, ultimately, depresses growth. The DSP/DPI column in the table above shows consumer debt service payments as a percentage of disposable income. This ratio shows two periods of notable increase: One between 1983 and 1989, and one between 1993 and 1997. Note that the ratio has risen for four straight years and now stands at its highest level since 1974. Has this depressed growth? Hardly. Indeed, the periods during which DSP/DPI rose through double digits are marked by multi-year periods of growth. When bankruptcies began to rise in 1995 many analysts predicted spending slowdowns. They never materialized. Instead, the stock market embarked on an extraordinary three-year rise and consumption continued to chug along; the economy is now steaming toward its eighth year of expansion. Again the bankruptcy numbers are prompting dire warnings about consumption. But one need only look at a paltry 1997 saving rate of 3.8% to see that, even in the face of record bankruptcies, Americans will always find a way to spend.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Gold/CRB chart:
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/CrbGold.gif

Last week, here on Kitco, we calculated that,
The US debt divided by the US Gold reserves puts gold at $5000/ ounce. Or another way to look at it is if Gold is worth $300/ ounce, what is the US dollar really worth?

I have not looked at it that way before, interesting. 5 trillion is to X as $5000 is to $300 = the real debt as valued at todays Gold price.

The US real debt = $ 15 Trillion. WOW!

Wait a minute, I think I did that wrong!

5 trillion is to $300 as $5000 is to X = the real US debt.

The real US debt may = $ 83.33 Trillion WOW!

And as Gold goes down does this mean the US debt goes up?
The US may have the same problem as us GoldBugs when Gold falls my debt to asset ratio doesn't look as good - how about you?

Heck, no problem! It doesn't matter, no one cares, put it on Visa.

The Japanese are not buying our bonds anymore - they are selling. Bond interest rates are rising as they are looking for buyers.

Bond interest rates are going up, as the world has less and less money of value to buy them

Maybe the US is not the one holding Gold down?
Maybe Another is on to something?

Meanwhile the US, while thinking it is the great world leader, is being led by a sexual deviate and as a result is forced into kissing every bodys rear end around the world. Will the World accept Clinton's BS or will they ask him for a BJ? Bring in Monica and the Girls - No, just have Clinton service them.

Look around, things are great aren't they?

HighRise

Gosh, let me write that down. Sounds like something JPMorgan, Astor, or one of the Vanderbilts would have shared with the guy who opened the carriage door...

BillD
You've got to be quick around here.

Free CRB projections for the coming year.
http://www.marketprojections.com/cpo.htm

A drop below current intra-day lows sets up a high probability of Apr gold seeing the 294-295 numbers. for May silver, let us NOT see below 6.35.

...and no reaction from this esteemed gathering. Perhaps our pundits are too busy selling their GOLD!

Well, one has to wonder, no?

Glenn: I posted yesterday ( 16:57 ) about how boring the last few weeks have been regarding gold. In case you didn't see it, let me just relay the last paragraph which is specific to you.

Glenn: you bring thoughts from the trading floor. What's goin on down there? Is it bearish, bullish, or a who cares attititude right now? A while ago, you said that things seemed to be different this time regarding gold's upside potential, and that you were the most optiimistic in a while. Do the conditions that you now see on the floor still indicate the optimistic tone?

Thanks for any input as I value the input you give, since it's based on what the floor traders are actually doing and not what we hope they will do. Thanks again in advance! By the way, anyone else on the floor who has any input in this area would be appreciated.

As long as they pay their rent I don't care who they talk to.

of recent rise from last week has so far not exceeded 44%, which doesn't seem cause for handwringing.

This is my reaction: This f'ing Gold market Sucks.......
Go Camdessus........

POG down 3.20? Has any "news" broken, or is this just a little profit taking?

A few choice quotes:

"Outside of the killings, Washington D.C. has one of the lowest crime rates in the country" - Marion Barry, Mayor of Washington DC.

"A liberal is a person whose interests aren't at stake at the moment" Willis Player, American writer.

Definition of a bigot - A conservative winning an argument with a liberal.

They should make getting welfare as difficult as getting a building permit.

If you think health care is expensive now, wait until it's FREE!.

And my FAVORITE:
----------------------
A democracy is not a form of government that will survive. For it will only succeed until it's citizens discover they can vote themselves money from the treasury, then they will bankrupt it. - Karl Marx

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980303/japan_saka_8.html
Like him or not, Sakakibara has become the main -- if not sole -- articulator abroad of Japan's often perplexing economic policies.

Just why allegations of impropriety by Sakakibara surfaced some seven years after the supposed incident remained a puzzle.

``It was a long time ago. Why would someone bring it up now?'' the financial expert said. ``It smells a little funny and suggests there may be a larger agenda,'

Just this week, he suggested the time might be ripe for creation of a new monetary system to deal with the the sort of financial crisis suffered by Asia.

``Such a situation ( as occurred in Asia ) can occur in any country in the world. This has demonstrated just how unstable globalised capitalism is,'' Sakakibara said in an interview with the daily Mainichi Shimbun published on Monday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980303/indonesia__5.html
``While the country is almost bankrupt, Suharto has personal wealth of $16 billion, according to Forbes Magazine. This should be part of his accountability report to the Indonesian people,'' Megawati said.

Suharto's Sunday MPR speech was billed as an ``accountability'' of his current five-year term.

Many of the world's capitals have expressed fears of widespread unrest in Indonesia, a nation of 200 million people strategically poised on major sea routes linking East and West and the world's largest natural gas producer.

Mobs angered by rising food prices looted and burned shops last month in at least two dozen towns across the country of 17,500 islands stretching for 5,000 km ( 3,000 miles ) along the Equator.

Some analysts say Suharto himself may be the problem. They say he has dithered on implementing the IMF reforms despite his public commitment because they could affect lucrative monopolies held by his family and associates.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980303/full_text__10.html
FULL TEXT - Japan parliament Q&A on Sakakibara

Well, I will ask the prime minister and finance minister about this, but in any event, I think there are problems with the actions of Mr Sakakibara.

Within the things I have discussed today, I feel that I am seeing the root of the sickness which engulfs the Ministry of Finance and the series of financial scandals which ensnared it.

I would like to get the answers. Mr Chairman?

gold lease rates are poping and gold is down today. this is what happended with silver where silver would have a big drop and rise in it's lease rates; to be followed by a strong rally in silver

I realize I am not one of the more "knowledgeable" on this site. However, patience seems to be a virtue that is somewhat lacking. The price of gold in the $290's is an opportunity to buy physical rarely offered by the market. Who among you would have said no to $297 gold in 1980, 1987, 1990, 1995? This price is in US$-the same dollars that in 1980 were worth a WHOLE lot more. 1997 to date is but a passing moment in the history of the price of gold. This history teaches waiting for gold to go to $280 or less in current US$'s is to veiw your life only by concern for the next forty-five seconds and not your future and the future of your children and their children. Dips are good if greed does not blind the mind of what is in front of your eyes. Smile. Tom

Pete, I did like your post but there were a couple of points that bothered me.

When people and governments cannot trust one and another, when they cannot respect one and another - their currencies seek another more honest, unchanging and dependable source of backing. And that has been for the past few thousand years - Gold.

The US president has lost world respect and trust. Even if, by his poles the American people seem uncaring the rest of the World is not fooled.

There is nothing wrong with a deficit, so long as it is balanced in the average
by the surpluses. It is only this full Keynesian policy, scientifically rather than politically applied, which can prevent depressions, reduce the depth of recessions, and eliminate inflation. To learn more, take economics 101

So long as it is balanced - Balanced by what? The US has no Surpluses except in the amount of debt - $5 Trillion and rising!

(  something President Clinton clearly understands, since he has halved the
deficit in his first administration )

Are you sure of this statement, I am not. The President has lied about so much and fudged so many figures I dont even think he knows what is true anymore. So many in Washington have been robbing Peter to pay Paul, that who knows what the true deficit and debt really may be? They are cooking the books.

Where are all of the Social Security surpluses going my friend?

What is the difference between National Debt. The Deficit, and Balance of Trade Payments?

....It is only this full Keynesian policy, scientifically rather than politically applied, which can prevent depressions, reduce the depth of recessions, and eliminate inflation. To learn more, take economics 101.

I did take economics 101, and they told me the national debt does not matter because we owe it to ourselves; well that is the way it use to be, not anymore, now we owe the World a bundle of CASH! And therefore, I can only conclude from your statement, that we are headed for a Recession or Depression, because the Keynesian policy has been politically rather than scientifically applied. Is that correct?

I am also not sure how long God will bless a country that endorses everything that is contrary to His desires for it.

Yes, I agree with you and pray that God may Bless America.

HighRise

http://www.wavechart.com/systemtrader/gold.htm

Plus other charts on this site.
Links at top of the page.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980302/yamana_res_1.html

Gebernax @ 'I know there is only one similar systematic potential time bomb now. We will know it on 9th September 1999. The date in code will be 9999 ( 4*9 ) . It also is a string for system error in many pre 1985 codes. It causes less harm than Y2K - computers, just refuse to work that day."

Wait a minute here, 9/9/99 will be my 40th birthday. Does this mean I can stay 39 forever????

Away.......totrademetalsandblowoutthecandles

at 1 1/4 ...you might get it this morning...showing down 1/8 to 1 3/16..
Hope that is just a knee-jerk....com-on ..silver, you are supposed to be in short supply...

There are many people who lurk and post here. It is terribly unfortunate that you paint the former as idiots and the latter as failed guides. If you have something constructive to add then do so. If not then please do not taunt the regulars. What's your position and outlook? What are your tools?

Then everyone will blame it all on you, bud. Happy B-day in advance ( since all systems will be tubed by then! ;- )

to send you to the hospital for some nitro.....I am wondering who has the chest pains now?? Damn, and I am trying to join the bull-camp... ( alas ) ....it matters not to me... ( direction ) ...It just goes to show ya that when the two greatest gold minds ( not mines Haggis ) get together ( ted and eb ) to discuss world politics and it's pertinence to POG that even we can be wrong ( cocktails didn't help either ) ....dang charts. go cotton!

Now, this blessed silver thingie is interesting. Who is dragging whom? Manipulations-R-Us.........huh? I am gonna go both ways here... ( sell the rallies ) ...it is just too unpredictable and the volatility ( 25-30ct ) price swings can really juice a guys fruit. yum-yum.

btw, did anyone see that documentary regarding fractals and Mandelbrot/Julia sets? How fascinating! It is related to gold, no? Patterns/Cycles are natures way of telling us.........well, I just don't know, maybe it is nature's way of telling Aurator that his ginseng/beer combo last night made for some zany stuff. Sleep it off, windy... ( zzzzz ) .

away...to the charts

?

I guess Kitco lease rates are a couple of days old.

since Monday. It will be a hot summer for usurious rates

For those who are interested, my Toronto Mining Issues McClellan Summation Index has turned upward in the past two days. This is one of the things that I was looking for prior to a fully invested gold position. It indicates good breadth. A level of +2000 would confirm a new bull phase. We are not close to that at this time.

The Toronto Gold Index trend line that rises weekly at 2% ( compounded weekly from the last low ) held last week. This trend is now at 6268. The Toronto Gold Index is available from Yahoo's quotes if you do a lookup on it. The 20 day MA has held up for the XAU so far. This is healthy, so far.

The New Lows in Toronto Mining issues have expanded to 10 issues in the past week. This is not a good sign. Less than 6 over several days is a sign of a good market. This is an alert to possible trouble.

The S&P should be topping any time now, as a third corrective wave is due in to spring. This should be done by late Apr-May and will set up a critical rally. The strength of this rally will determine whether we will enter a new bull phase or the dreaded?? bear. This calculation is based on the historical patterns following a McClellan Summation Index reading over +3000 as we had last July. Three waves down in the Summation Index as the market chugs on to new highs. This was expected and has occurred. Wave three is due now.

First- apologies for the locked caps! Poor typist!
Frustrated: there are myriads of individuals out there who have successfully ceased filing.
There are many who faced the IRS and paid dearly.
There were a few killed in the "Line of Duty" as they opposed the monster we call the USG.
To generalize and state such drivel as certain personnae
who are more closely affiliated with the problem than with the
solutions do from time to time is to deny the Right of All to choose Freedom or Slavery.
I say the proof of the puddin' IS in the eatin'.
Learn all you can about the problem and I am sure you will achieve a solution which from your point of view is acceptable.

As some on this forum have already done, to capitulate in your heart before having even attempted a defense, let alone an attack, is
tatamount to gracious acceptance of the slave collar.

I am sure there are a few of the genuine article posting here. I feel a kinship with some of them. Admittedly, I could be mistaken, but doubt it!


Nick:We in the American West would have planned ahead in terms of your scenario. That's O.K. for the silly con valley folks and others who have never known the joy of facing the beast in its lair. I have a hunch it aptly describes their behavior when confrontation rears its head!!
( %+^}[

Jeil: Right On!!! Remember what John Paul Jones said about having only begun to fight! Go get 'um!!

Thanks for the XAU chart site.

HighRise

Next time, I'll use a Smiley thingy so you won't take it personal. On the serious side, for us who are not in the "business" it's a bit disconcerting to see a swing in POG without a reaction from this erstwhile vociferous group.

I'm no more than a humble peasant investor who has a sizeable percentage of his life's savings in GOLD. My emotions follow this group's mood swings on a daily basis. My position and outlook is largely influensed by this group, which accounts for why I've not bailed out of PM's. It's rather obvious that I have no tools, nay, scratch that; YOU are my tools.

I hold:

ABX
HM
HL
PGU
BMG
FKRBX

I chucked:

RYO
ECO

... and in parting, my comments this morning were on-topic. Unless you have a function on this site similar to Bart's, I suggest you ignore my future meaningless and unproductive posts. To the rest of this forum, I fervently hope you don't share Allen's reaction. If you don't, THANK YOU... if you do, then GET A LIFE.

HenryD

The ticker symbol on Yahoo for Toronto Golds is ^tgl.

Parts one and two at the top of the "new" posts area. I found these two articles quite interesting. He identifies three ways a national government can spend more: raise taxes, print money or issue bonds. This helped me see some contunity in the period from the 1960's through the present in terms of inflation and the national debt, etc.

During the 60's and 70's the US printed money and inflation was the result. Volker put the breaks on the printing money business and Reagan shifted gears into issuing US Gov Bonds ( debt ) . Hence the astounding run up in out debt ( increase of 39 Billion in February alone? ) . Kutyn's contention is that at some point this must be paid via taxes or the creditors will discount the bonds to zero or there abouts. That means the 30 yr bond interest rate would escalate uncontrollably.

Right now the US has issued government bonds equivalent to 60% of its GDP. At this point the charade is acceptable to big money interests and the public is continually "educated" that the US Government is stable and unsinkable ( Titanic analogy plays through your mind at this point ) . The 'system' is willing to use the US$ ( and this includes US bonds ) as the medium of trade. But will it always?

It seems that the Asians are planning a little revolt where their trade ( intra-asian ) is accomplished in their own currencies. This kind of action will indeed change the equation. Right now a certain amount of US$/debt is used in trade. This volume of US$ is predicated on everyone using it. If some people begin to use their own currencies ( Euro/Asyen ) to accomplish trade than we are left with a larger pool of US$'s than is needed. The Fed can buy these back but they must do so with currencies other than US$'s. What will the impact of this be?

The US$ will become less valuable in terms of other currencies and tangible goods. Classic inflation. If this transition can be done in an orderly fashion then we might see a typical inflationary situation over a period of years. But if it is done in a unilateral, 'see ya later' fashion then what? Bond crash? Hyperinflation?

Just some thoughts.

instead of posting theories here. I have synonymous sentiment with you.

You are right in that there is some shortsightedness to some of these recent comments. However, to defend some of those who are a little emotional right now. that 45 seconds you talk about is a lifetime for some of the traders you see on this forum. Specifically, those who bought a sh_t load of April Call/Put options and are now literally running out of time ( 3/13/98 ) because gold is staying pat in the middle of these two strike prices, instead of showing any volatility and popping strong one way or another..

I forget who it was, but someone was playing a straddle with April 290 puts and April 310 calls. For them, they have slowly seen their options lose value because time is running out. For these traders, it is understandible that emotions are high and patience is running out. For those in this situation, I'm pulling for ya, and quite frankly, I think one of these strikes will hit before 3/13 and it won't be that bad. You might even still make a few bucks one way and break even. It can't stay in this stupid range for too much longer ( basis daily charts ) . 310 or 290 will be upon us shortly, once they stop giving out valium as candy in the gold pits and people start to wake up down there!

CNBC NBC MSNBC Just a mouth piece for Bill Gates, watch the politicians kiss up to him.
CNBC's Bruce Francis interupts Netscapes testimony to read again from Bill Gates.

Maybe they have let him get to big.

HighRise

$300 proving a tough nut to crack. Pretty obvious that heavy selling comes in every time POG exceeds this level. But the more the resistance, the bigger the move when $300 finally is broken with conviction.

Bob: Could you post the URl of your gold lease rates site.

The wizards on Wall Street and in the City of London never seem to run short of new ideas. Try this one: a ten-year bond that pays nearly twice as much as a typical low-risk investment--but with a twist. If Tokyo is struck by a serious earthquake during the next decade, the investor forfeits all or part of the PRINCIPLE. Tokio Marine & Fire, a Japanese insurance company, issued $100 million worth of such bonds in November. Your companys pension plan may well be among the owners.

...If this sounds a bit familiar, it should. Insurers are discovering what bankers know as securitisation: the process of assembling mortgages, credit-card receivables or even business loans into securities that provide reasonably predictable income streams and principal repayments. This sort of financial engineering has been going on for decades in America, and has lately taken root in Europe. Its big advantage is that, once the assets have been sold, the issuer NEED NO LONGER SET ASIDE CAPITAL TO COVER POTENTIAL LOSSES...
Economist, Feb 28 ~ Mar 6th, 1998

Sharefin@Out.to.get.Mr.Yen? I wondered about that too! Bad press is yet another Bizarre Indicator!

.

You came in swinging, dude. Just wanted to 'meet you at the door' so to speak. I am no hall monitor here. Its nothing personal, I'm sure, either way. If you've been here any amount of time then you know that the group tends to be quiet when things are down on gold ( unless its a REAL down ) . If there is nothing to comment on ( rumors, news, commentary ) then people don't post on it. Simialrly for nondesript rises ( unless someone want to club some other people for expecing a sudden rise and it doesn't materialize ) .

A +/-2% swing in POG isn't very meaningful anyway unless its followed by more of the same over time. A 30 Day MA is a decent tool to filter the noise and see a trend ( and this market certainly has trend-ness ) .

If those who are worthy here are your 'tools' then I'm sure even they would cast up all sorts of disclaimers about you doing your own 'due diligence, etc' as they often post at the end of their contributions. Hope that's the case.

Sharefin thank you for this CRB indicator for 1998.

Free CRB projections for the coming year.

http://www.marketprojections.com/cpo.htm

Here is why CDN $ is at the bottom right now and will take the same path the CRB will go in 1998 and beyond.

TORONTO, March 3 /CNW/ - Lower world prices for global commodities are

the main reason why the Canadian dollar has fallen 30% in relation to the US

dollar in the past 25 years, says a report released by Royal Bank of Canada

today.

More:

http://ww2.newswire.ca/releases/March1998/03/c0296.html

.

Mr. HenryD. Many bugs here feel your pain. It is too bad, but they

feel your pain. And MANY smart bugs saw this gold bear for what is

was ( money in the bank ) and went with the trend. It is

hard for me to understand how people can get so emotionally attached

to something. It clouds the judgement....it makes for fitful

sleep....it gets you kicked off ( HH ) discussion groups........it is gold,

and their is nothing like it. go gold......somewhere.

away...to w/w

?

i installed the net4.0 and tried to bring a new font to the group....unsuccessfully.......... ( bummer ) . It is pretty nifty nonetheless. It has a spell checker for those so inclined. Might I recommend it to some? ( you know who you are ) ...

Yes, nice little packages of loans or insurance. The only problem is that these packages carry completely fabricated 'ratings' from Moody et al. So one thinks they are 'safe' when they are 'risk personified'. Unless you are an actuary ( in the case of the insurance bonds ) or bond engineer ( in the case of loans ) and have complete access to the entire contract, all statistics and etc these are just crap repackaged. Recent book I read ( F.I.A.S.C.O. by Frank Partnoy ) really opened my eyes to this practise in the 'mortage and bond' arena. A really sickening scam. I don't know how these people can live with themselves.

I am trying to find out about this co. So far only sketchy. Waiting to talk to Chf Geologist. Now known - 18 mill sh out fully diluted. 2 mines, one in BC and 1 in Ca near Bakersfield. No debt ? Has a standby agreement fro Standard Charter. If you have anything, please let me know.
their phone is 888 236 5200. VSE last I heard was C$.20 about. TIA

Forgot, my email is out . when available, cdevoto@conninc.com thanx

their=there... ( duh ) .

My April calls ain't worth much now and I doubt they will be. They have, however been good insurance in order to buy physical in any case til mid-March. It's the Dec. contracts I watching. Thanks for your thoughts. Tom

Ck out lumber looks like Gold, if I am reading it correctly.

Home sales climbing. Bond rates climbing but AG can not raise rates.

Wage pressure?

Thanks for the site.

HighRise

I'm convinced, given the quick and dirty analysis of the action of ABX and PLD over the last two months ( posted yesterday ) , that the majors are in accumulation. Also, Mike's analysis of the Canadian stocks looks good. If and when the Candadian and Ausie dollars ever start turning up, I'm going to be really bullish.

Allen ( USA ) ; Not to worry. Came out swinging cause I can't determine moods in the written word... opted for two-barrelled approach - sorry. Appreciate you putting this morning's action in perspective ... I tend to spook in a vacuum.

Except for ABX, I had all of my holdings prior to joining this site some two-three months ago. I can't tell you what a relief it is to have you guys chatting all the time. No matter what the market is doing, I get a pretty good balance of opinion just listening. This is what I call insight and IT is what influenses me the most. And, no, I don't jump at every word or security mentioned here... but I sure as hell read every one of them.

Now if I could only understand ANOTHER... ( head-scratching thingy )

HenryD

I could sure use the spell checker.Any thoughts on why
sugar calls or puts are so cheap ,looks like a good
way to put on some kind of a trade for a small risk.

ABX and PDG, not ABX and PLD ( where did that come from? )

To all,

There is no problem this morning in bond yields, the dollar, or copper. All three are continuing the new trend.

There is a problem, though, in gold, silver, and the XAU, although none of them have fallen enough to warrant a call for a trend change.

Silver has fallen the farthest. But as long as it stays above $6.20 or so, it can be considered in good shape -- currently $6.37.

Gold is holding well above last week's low. I don't want to see $290.70 taken out -- currently around $296.00. Gold came a long way late last week. A pullback is normal. And after we've been through such a vicious bear, it's easy to see how fear could reassert itself so quickly.
But give it some time. As long as gold stays above $281 on any pullback, the head-and-shoulders bottom is still seen to be forming.

The daily chart of the XAU left an island reversal gap on it last Friday. Right now, the price is probing that gap, trying to fill it. The gap extends from 72.85 to 73.91. The current price is 73.62, so the gap is partially filled. Hopefully, it won't be completely filled as that will give the next upmove more impetus. But even if the gap gets completely filled, then it should act as a support level from which to launch another upmove.

Like you, I want gold to rise everyday. But it doesn't. The big turn came last Wednesday. It is still in force -- the short-term trend is up.

Happy trading.

The Preacher

I bought some AMAX Gold at 3$. Due to the merger they seem to sit like ducks. Shall I exchange them for something better ? Any thoughts
Go Think !

Yes! Yes! Yes! {:- (

Mike Stewart: Is the Toronto Mining Issues McClelland Summation Index available on the net somewhere?

Jeil,

Thanks for the information on the Turks & Caicos. This will be very helpful. Noticed you live in the ozarks, I'm right up the road in Kansas City. Buying gold mining issues through an account in the Turks & Caicos would be a good way to avoid capital gains when gold turns. I sincerely appreciate the information.

I do have some THOUGHTS regarding this Sugar thingie. I will be glad to discuss them through e-mail so as not to be off subject with these fine group of folks. eblm@utech.net going to work right now....will try to reply esta noche. Volatilities are too sweet ( pun ) . I will make money on this sugar thingie ( maybe ) :-0
away...to the grind
?

LGB - I'm one of the lurkers. Made a bunch on gold in the early 90s and like most other believers, got stabbed the past 6 months. I'm ready to move in the other direction. But about your cardiac problems, let me give you some encouragement.

Those arrhythmias are not to be taken lightly. They can produce a crippling life style and are potentially life threatening. If not controlled by drugs, the "difibrilator" mentioned has proven to be a lifesaver. I've lived with one for going on 13 years with the 5th unit in place. Grant you it isn't a pleasant experience to be "prodded" but if the drugs fail occasionally, it sure as hell beats the alternative.
Sorry you're having the drug reactions. But they've made great progress in that field and they may have you try others. Each case is unique but for what it's worth, they had a hell of a time finding a drug that would work for me and before they could, the unit was installed.

Other than the limitations we have to accept as we age, I now live a normal life with few restrictions. We're fortunate to be living in an age that can cope with these matters. Good luck to you.

I just received e-mail from Michael Bates. He was unable to provide me with any information about the newer islamic dinars. I refered him to a dinar web iste.

"I just took a look at the web site.... So far as I can tell, nothing was mentioned about the origins of the coin shown. I know nothing about it."

He has referred me to a Mr. Vadillo.

I will follow up and let you what happens.

I don't know if this has been mentioned here in relation to offshort trusts but Alaska and Delaware now have creditor free trusts which you might consider as an alternative to an offshore trust. Something about investing in and trusting the laws of another country kind of make me squeemish. With the Alaska trust ( the one I have looked at with some detail ) the irrevocable trust is set up with at least one Alaskan trustee and at least some of the trust corpus being invested in Alaska. The grantor of the trust can give the trustee the discretionary right to distribute money to the grantor ( thus making it possible to have income distributed to the grantor ) . Supposedly, and I don't know if this has been tested in court and the law is less than 1 year old, once this is done the trust becomes creditor proof. This does not shiel a grantor who already owes the money. Its a shield against future malpractice or debts. The one bank I investigated charged quite a sum to review the trust and then a rather hefty sum to administer the trust. The alternative may or may not be worth it.

I contacted Dr. Michael Bates, chairman of the Islamic Section, American Numismatic Society in reference to the Islamic Gold Dinar Web Site, and the existence of such a coin. Here is his response:

From: bates@amnumsoc.org

Sent: Tuesday, March 03, 1998 11:28 AM

To: Silverdolr@webtv.net

Subject: Re:Islamic Gold Dinar ( new )

I just took a look at the web site. It seems to be a mixture of long-standing

"gold-bug" arguments with elements drawn from Islamic economic theory.

So far as I can tell, nothing was mentioned about the origins of the coin shown.

I know nothing about it.

The e-mail address islamicmint@netmatters.co.uk is given. Perhaps Mr. Vadillo

can give you more information if you address him there.

Michael Bates

Furthermore, similar responses were gathered from a half-dozen other numismatic dealers - in the U.S., U. K., and Israel. All said either they had never heard of it, or that they thought the ideas presented were interesting, but also did not know of its existence.

Either this new gold dinar is the most elusive of coins, or it is a dead duck issue. I prefer the latter interpretation. The only other good source to check might be the British Museum, if any out there have a contact.

Allen ( USA ) : Thanks for posting your 10:42. I have not had time to review all the events which lead up to our current situation regarding debt, but I did recall that the Fed could not be blamed for all of our problems. It is my opinion that the lion's share lies with the 'tax and spend' congress. Vollker must have contributed to inflation by expanding the money supply as he did, but the RR/Bush era added trillions to our debt in a relatively short period of what seemed to be prosperity.

My suspicion is that the real killer in our future will be excessive debt, not inflation - as long as the inflation is relatively 'controlled'. Just wait till the interest on our debt represents 1/2 of tax collections, or the 15 trillion debt in entitlements comes due.

A debt implosion -- or its close equivalent -- sudden withdrawal of foreign equity, is what triggered the SEAsia crisis. In the US it will be different, because foreign investment is less prominent. But -- all we will need is some fort of financial shock to trigger a wave of defaults/bankruptcies, and the whole financial house of cards will implode. I noticed from some financial site like 'Fred' that we are only adding about 250 billion/year to our net assets with our current economic boom -- so there is no way we can rise out of the debt crater we have put ourselves in.

Also -- when the day of debt reckoning finally comes -- perhaps years from now, we need to be on the watch for a compensatory expansion of the money supply to 'demonetize' the debt.

I would be interested in hearing contrary opinions, or agreement, as I think this topic is very important to gold bug survival training.

Try http://www.techstocks.com and type in 'gold price monitor' at the search box. Two posts with this name appeared on 3/2/98.

Sorry, I didn't see your post before entering mine. Looks like we have the same response to our queries.

Date: Tue Mar 03 1998 12:54
Silverbaron ( A. Goose ) ID#289357:

Not a problem, besides your post was more informative. So I guess, we all may be late to dinar ( :^}. ( Bad joke )

If there is no dinar, some folks have gone to a lot of trouble to document it. Is this like the Roswell autopsy???

LGB: xye is right -- there have been major advances -- I did not think of that. Your problem sounds like it is electrical -- and if you cannot find a drug that you can tolerate -- you may want to consider this. You will not get any exotic mind-altering side effects from one of those pacers, some of which can even defibrillate if necessary.

Does anyone know how much gold exists in the world? Thanks.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980302/bema_gold__1.html

All: Paul Harvey quoted one of our national talk show hosts, who was discussing the national crisis we have in our teaching of mathematics. Our highly touted public education system was given a lousy math grade. The talk show hosts comment was something like : 'President Clinton considers this a major problem, and we should fix this right away'. Then there was a pause, and the talk show host brought up the problems of XXXXgate, and said: 'Does he really want the public to be knowledgable? Then they might be able to put 2 + 2 together'

Here is the balance of article I posted the other day.

EXCERPT:

The second matter of academic economics has to do with trade deficits. In
the economic textbooks, it says that unlimited free trade is better for all
consumers. The trouble is, we are not just consumers. We are also workers
and owners. And unless everyone plays the game of international trade by
the same rules, we may still gain as consumers, but this will be irrelevant,
since all the good jobs and the ownership of our businesses and property
will migrate to the more closed markets.

Our market is our own. We are not obliged to open it to anyone else. Those
allowed to trade in our market should consider it a privilege. And if a
trading partner has a market partially closed to us, we should close our
market to them in exactly the same degree, without negotiation. It does not
matter how they close their market; the Japanese have shown considerable
ingenuity in this regard. The last twenty years have shown the Japanese a
way to become world dominant without even possessing a fleet. Another
twenty years of this, and we will all be flipping hamburgers at McDonalds.
On the other hand, if every nation refuses to trade with the Japanese
unless they open their markets, the Japanese empire quickly collapses,
since they must import raw materials.

The government must also take a much more aggressive stance regarding
theft of intellectual property. We should feel free to steal intellectual
property from those who steal from us. Turn about, fair play. As long as
there are no negative consequences, we will keep inventing things, like the
VCR, and the Orientals will keep stealing the technology, flooding the
market at a loss until all our own factories have gone belly up, and we will
have gained nothing from our own creativity. We should be quick to develop
a new invention, so inventors will not have to turn to the Japanese. And
such developments should be safe-guarded as if it were military
technology. We should then protect that market, until the industry is
robust. Patents and copyrights are not sufficient in a world where the
Chinese, Japanese and Koreans ignore the rules regarding such things. In
short, the government should take a strategic interest in new technology,
as if the fate of the nation depends on Digital High Definition Television and
optical fiber, because indeed it does.

Free enterprise varies from country to country and from one time and place
to another. Theoretically, competition and the free market will keep it all
running automatically. But in practice, it doesn't. In the 19th Century, huge
monopolies developed, which then set their own prices ( high ) . It was
necessary for the Federal Government to step in. In the 1980s, corporate
raiders ran rampant, buying corporations with junk bonds, which were then
paid off by dismantling the company, and selling off the pieces. Eventually,
most of these corporate raiders ran afoul of the law. In the 1990s, the fad is
corporate downsizing.

There seems something obscene about 40,000 workers in one corporation
losing their jobs, usually workers in their fifties and unable to find a similar
job, all to the self-congratulation of management, which votes itself huge
pay raises. Speaking of management compensation, why is it that
American corporate executives make two or three times as much money as
their Japanese or European counterparts? I could propose solutions to
these specific problems, but the general conclusion is just that the
Aristarchy must keep an eye on the
corporations. Occasional intervention may be required.

MY COMMENTS:

Now all of these deficits, multi-lateral trade agreements, etc., are all enacted by politicians, as treasonuos acts against the people who elected them. IMHO. These elections are bought by interests against the better interests of the US. 90% of the citizens are fooled by constant bombardment of misinformation and promises thru the media. These citizens, many on welfare, social security, entitlements, corporations also on the take from the government, do not want these handouts to stop. Therein is our downfall. I'm sure you will admit that we elect these scoundrels, thru ignorence and lack of true knowledge of what is really occuring. Most, not all, of the time, when a Congressman, Senator or other high official is elected, look from whence thier monies evolve.

As I've posted before, when the Fed Act was enacted in 1913, thru subtrefuge, coniving and other cunnung means, our fate was really sealed. I do not remember the exact time of this post, but it was no more than 2 days ago. Basically, what I asked is who owns the Fed? It is an independent agency that operates with the blessing our elected officials gave them to create money. There was a very wealthy individual ( megabanker ) who said, "GIVE ME THE ABILITY TO CREATE MONEY, AND I CARE NOT WHO RUNS THE GOVERNMENT". Who owns our CB? Our national banks. Who owns these national banks? The directors are so mysteriously intertwined and secret, that no one truly knows who's pulling the strings. To me it is obvious. Foreign interests that are intertwined among international megacorporations that are interested in one thing and one thing only; POWER AND MONEY. They indirectly own other governments and manipulate economies to suit thier purposes, whenever, wherever, it is more profitable to thier interests. Are we all blind. What excuse is there for NAFTA, ad naseum, unless this were so.

The media is owned by a handful of powerful people that can set policy in secret to decieve us all by propaganda and misinformation. And without the majority of thier own employees any the wiser.

Until we the people understand and know who is our true enemy, we will continue on this merrygoround we are currently ensnared in forever. Hopefully, thru the web, true information will be assimulated over time to put a stop to this cruel, inhuman condition they are instilling in us.

Many on this forum want a crash or upheaval. They think gold by itself will be our saviour. Well, for everyones information, gold only worked temporarilly, and then back on the same merrygoround. I feel empathy for the common, honest, hardworking Asians that are going thru hell, right now. How far behind are we before we will be wearing thier shoes?

IN THE NAME OF GOD, I HOPE NOT. HAVING SEEN THE LAST DEPRESSION, AND WHAT IT DID TO HONEST, HARDWORKING PEOPLE THEN, I WOULD NOT WISH THIS FATE ON MY WORST ENEMY. WHEN YOU'VE SEEN PEOPLE STEAL A LOAF OF BREAD IN ORDER TO FEED THIER FAMILIES, AND THEN GO TO JAIL AND MARKED AS CRIMINALS FOR LIFE, OR YOU'VE SEEN A BABY STARVE TO DEATH FOR WANT, WHO IN THIER RIGHT SENSES WOULD WANT TO WISH THESE THINGS, EVEN ON THIER OWN WORST ENEMIES? OR FOR THAT MATTER OF FACT WANT THESE THINGS TO RECUR?

I, IN MY GUT, KNOW WHO THE REAL ENEMY IS. MOST HERE DO NOT SEE THE BIG PICTURE OF WHAT IS TRULY OCCURING UNDER THIER VERY NOSES.

GOLD IS VERY UNDERVALUED PRESENTLY. WE ALL KNOW THIS AS A FACT. IF EVEN 20% OF THE WORLDS POPULATION HOARDED SOME JEWELERY, A BRACELET, A NECKLACE, A RING, THEY WOULD CONSUME ALL OF THE WORLDS EXISTING GOLD IN AN INSTANT ( SEE EARLIER POST ON WORLD GOLD CALCULATIONS I POSTED TO MOZEL ) .

GOOD LUCK HIGHRISE, AND THANK YOU FOR YOUR COMMENTS.

http://www.kitco.com/gold.live2.html#leaserates

I had also studied law and ( as you know ) that unless you work in the Laws & Trusts area full time you must hire an attorney to do it to be done correctly.

In your experience, do you know what type Delaware Trust is best utilized in order to remove liability and reduce taxation ? I'm looking for something similar to a Limited Liability Partnership ( LLP ) without 20 limited partners. Essentially, I'd like to be a General Partner with my wife and children limited partners but an LLP of this type ( as you may know ) have been view by the courts to be 'holding companies'. Any suggestions ? How do the wealthy do it ( Kennedy, Rockefeller, et al ) ????

TIA

.

Statuatory Law is an effort by the state to control our personal and business affairs through the creation of laws that offer us "privileges" if we agree to place ourselves under those laws.

"The terms 'excise tax' and 'privilege tax' are synonomous, the two often used interchangeably." American Airways v Wallace 57 F2d 877, 880

So, if your trust is established by privilege granted in statute, will it be immune to the IRS. I think there is room for reasonable doubt of it.

There is a s#*^load of gold but noone knows for sure.

I am very interested in your remarks about potential predictability for your cycle filters and their projection. If you could post your email, I'll get back to you when my email is fixed. Many thanx. My email is cdevoto@conninc.com when it works

On numerous occasions I hav read posts
here at KITKO about the deflation that is
sweeping S E Asia. Lets get it straight.
What we have been seeing is INFLATION, and in
many cases HYPER INFLATION. Moreover, the
INFLATION problem is not confined to just
SE ASIA.

I offer the following:


Land of Mochtar
Riady

Soaring
Inflation

Not Good in Korea,
Either

JAKARTA - The
forced devaluation of
their currencies has
sent inflation rates
soaring, Indonesia and
South Korea announced Monday, in
a fresh sign that a
second wave of
turbulence in Asia's
economic crisis is
washing across the
region.

Indonesia's inflation
rate accelerated to
nearly 32 percent in
February, the brink of
hyperinflation, the
government reported.
The figures are the
worst since the
mid-1960s, when
economic and political
turmoil toppled
Sukarno, Indonesia's
founding father, and
propelled President
Suharto to power.

''This is just the
reported figure, can
you imagine what it's
really like out in the
villages,'' said Jimmy
Koh, a regional
economist at
Independent Economic
Analysis ( Holdings )
Pte. in Singapore. ''I
was looking at 50
percent for the full
year before this
number. Now I'll
probably revise it
higher.''

Over the past six
weeks, prices have
soared, hundreds of
thousands of people
have lost their jobs,
economic activity has
slowed to a crawl, and
dozens of food riots
have broken out in
provincial towns.

In South Korea, the
months-long slide of
the won has also sent
inflation soaring. The
Finance Ministry said
the consumer price
index had risen at a 9.5
percent rate in
February, after an 8.3
percent rise in
January. Producer
prices climbed 17.7
percent in February.
At the same time,
Seoul announced a
record trade surplus,
but economists said
this would not last. The
Trade Ministry said
the country had a
customs-cleared
surplus of $3.29 billion
in February, the
largest ever, against a
$2.12 billion deficit a
year earlier
''The surge in inflation
has been anticipated,
given the won's
dramatic fall to the
dollar,'' said Kim Joon
Kyong, an economist
at the Korea
Development Institute.
''But exports won't be
able to sustain steady
growth for long
because the basis for
exports is weakening
rapidly.''
Indonesia's inflation
figures were issued as
former Vice President
Walter Mondale, an
envoy of President Bill
Clinton, arrived in
Jakarta to urge Mr.
Suharto to implement
economic reforms.
Indonesia's Bureau of
Statistics said inflation
in February was 12.76
percent, more than in
all of 1997. The
year-on-year figure for
the month was 31.7
percent, close to
hyperinflation.

Analysts say that, as a
rule of thumb,
hyperinflation is
defined as price
increases running at
between 40 percent
and 50 percent. The
sharp jump in the
official figure backed
up anecdotal evidence
that price rises in many
basic goods are
already 40 percent or
50 percent or even
much higher. The
government's official
figures tend to
understate price rises,
analysts said.
According to the
official figures, food
prices rose a
month-on-month 16.07
percent in February;
housing, 10.03 percent;
textiles, 15.62 percent,
and services, 9.31
percent.

Anecdotal evidence
suggests that in recent
weeks, on a
month-on-month basis,
cooking oil has risen in
price by around 130
percent; rice around 34
percent; flour, 33
percent; eggs, 88
percent, and chicken,
34 percent.
( continued in next
column )



Getting High in the Gulf

Kuwait is
Drug-Dealer's
Delight

Another War-on-Drugs
Success Story

YOUNG Kuwaitis are a
drug-dealers delight: rich,
westernised and bored. Add to
that the countrys position on a
main trafficking route from Asia
to Europe, and it is not
surprising that drugs are a
problem. What is perhaps
surprising is that the authorities
in this conservative,
closed-shop Gulf regime admit
to the problem, and are giving
publicity to their anti-drugs
campaigns.

Kuwaiti policemen, hospital
workers, members of
parliament and civil servants
speak candidly of the growth in
drug-taking in recent years. The
amount of heroin seized has
increased fourfold in the past
two years and numbers of
drug-related arrests have shot
up. The governments
rehabilitation clinic, run by a
British firm, reports 15 new
cases a month, and has as many
as 1,000 regular patients, all of
them Kuwaitis.

Parliament has approved a law
imposing the death penalty for
drug-dealing. New measures to
fight money-laundering are on
the way. Children in state
schools are drilled about the
dangers of drugs and the
state-run television channels
broadcast warning programmes.

This relatively open approach
has not been without
embarrassments. Until its
recent change of management,
the rehabilitation clinic was
known as the best place in
Kuwait to buy drugs. And, as
elsewhere, the prisons turned
out to be dealing centres. When
a top anti-drugs official was
charged with minor
misdemeanours, cynics
whispered that the police dared
not investigate too zealously for
fear of what they might
discover. Kuwaits Islamists
predictably blame the spread of
drugs on the decline in public
morals.

Kuwaitis argue that drug
addiction is on the increase
throughout the Gulf; Kuwait is
simply more honest about it.
The United Arab Emirates,
following Kuwait in admitting to
a growing level of addiction, has
initiated public-education
campaigns. But others, such as
Saudi Arabia, are more
circumspect.

The Economist, March 7, 1998


( continued from previous
column )

''This February figure is no
surprise, everything is pointing
to inflation spiraling,'' said Neil
Saker, head of regional
economic research at
Socgen-Crosby in Singapore.

Analysts said a look at the base
money figures showed that the
central bank was printing a lot
of money and at the same time
in the real economy there were
shortages of food and other
essential goods.

''The classic definition of
hyperinflation is too much
money chasing too few goods
and that appears to be the
situation now,'' Mr. Saker
added.

Mr. Suharto, who said on
Sunday the current crisis had
begun to compromise the
economic lifeline of the world's
fourth most populous country,
also faced other problems from
an unexpected quarter on
Monday.

A legislator at the normally
docile People's Consultative
Assembly, the country's top
policy-making body, suggested
the 76-year-old former army
general should step down if the
crisis is not speedily resolved.
Other legislators spoke of a
deadline to sort out the mess.

The assembly is expected to
re-elect Suharto unopposed for
a seventh five-year term next
week.

Against a background of
mounting international concern,
a steady stream of high-level
visitors has descended on
Jakarta in recent weeks to
cajole, advise or warn Mr.
Suharto.

Mr. Mondale will meet Mr.
Suharto on Tuesday, U.S.
Embassy officials said. They
gave no other details.

International Herald Tribune,
March 3, 1998

Rob: Thanks for the lease rates site!

Appears I was too hasty in arguing that rising lease rates are bullish. Depends on the cause. If lease rates climb because the CBs are lending less, that indeed is bullish -- very bullish. But if short lease rates jump because of a sudden surge in spec short-selling that is bearish short-term. Problem is, we usually don't know the cause until well after the fact.

Spell it out please,I don't have the time or energy to
dwell on the problems of the whole world ( or I'd be bummed )
so since you seem to,lay it on me.Please be brief I tend to
to have my own beliefs on it. ( wrestle not against flesh and blood but~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~eph.6.12 )

Have you had an opportunity to view gcj8 on Quote.com today? If so, does this seem to fit some of your comments? I used daily 5 min. chart. Thanx

I've had detailed discussions with several tax attorneys regarding some of Schiffs endeavors. One I get them on the hook they change to another topic of law or paint him as a kook!!!

For those interested: ,,,, "The Federal Mafia" by Schiff is a good overview. I've read lotsa' his material BUT don't have the b_lls norr fortitude to do what he suggests. ( without kids and the proper protection ,,,,, definitely,,,, )

If you really bothered to read my post rather than scan it, you can only come to one conclussion. It would not matter whether I told you or not. IMHO, you have preconcieved notions that would take a stick of dynamite to dislodge. And my convictions would take the hydrogen bomb to move same. To each his own!

Didn't enlighten me any on










Didn't clear up the who the ENEMY ?I did scan your 1200+
word post 2times before I posted last,and other than the
useal ( howbe it true ) CB's politicians,media etc.couldn't
come up with anything fresh,so my ? was serious and my
reason for asking was serious ( not having the time or energy )
I was just looking for the easy way to figure out what
your point was. GO GOLD!!!








di

Model behavior? Banks credit-risk models are mind-bogglingly complex, But the question they try to answer is actually quite simple: how much of a banks lending might plausibly turn bad?

No model, of course, can take account of every possiblity. ...Many of the banking industrys brightest rocket scientists have been given over to the task. With the help of Taylor-series expansions, Gamma integrals, negative bionomial distributions and so forth, the models go from calculating the probability that any one borrower will default, to estimating the chances that Wal-Mart, say, will default at the same time as Woolworth or that loans to the French property developers will go bad at the same time as loans to Air France.

Credit-risk models have evolved from value-at-risk models, which were developed to estimate how much of a banks trading portfolio--foreign exchange, cash, securities and derivatives--it could lose in a single day because of adverse movements in financial prices....criticized for assuming that PAST CORRELATIONS in the prices of different assets will hold in future and for making simplistic assumptions about the range of possible price changes. They also fail when prices for the underlying assets become unavailable--when a stock market suspends trading, for example. Value-at-risk models however deal with assets that are publicly traded, so there is a vast amount of data for the models to crunch.

It is far harder to come up with data on the market value of loans or on how much of the value of bad loans banks eventually recover. That leaves it uncertain whether the results cranked out by credit-risk models are statistically valid. The models are clever all right. But how much relation they bear to reality may not be clear until after the next recession.
The Economist, Feb 28th ~ Mar 6,

Charles Keeting:

Inflation in SE Asia and deflationary pressures in the rest of the world are two sides of the same coin. When SE Asian currencies tanked that was inflationary for their domestic economies, but deflationary for the economies of countries competing with them or purchasing their exports.

New handle but same old habits?

Still 3 trading days left in the week.....

Date: Sat Feb 28 1998 08:16
OLD GOLD ( outlook ) ID#238295:
Still looks like the gold bear is dying and $300 will be decisively breached next week. I expect bullion to approach $320 within the next few weeks, before falling back to $305 or so. From now on it will be higher highs and higher lows -- in other words a bull market.

This still looks like the final stock market blowoff. The next few weeks should be a lot of fun, especially for the small caps, but this party will end soon with a very bad hangover. Dow 9000 in March, Dow 6000 by June? I'm not predicting this, but stranger things have happened.

See Pogo--

I hope we are all friends...GO GOLD!

The name escapes me, but let me thank the person who posted Venneroso's latest comments. He is the best gold analyst I have come across -- calling it like he sees it with little discernible bullish or bearish bias.

Ultimately, SUPPLY AND DEMAND are all that matter for gold or any other commodity for that matter. Venneroso's work contributes immeasurable to our understanding of the dynamic forces impacting gold supply and demand.

Prominent local trader "Tom Balkwin" is said to have offered a lot of bonds around 118.21.

Also, Solomon, Morgan Stanley, Deustche bank and Smith Barney each reportedly sold 1000 june bonds this morning!

Technically, it the market breaks 118.16, it could be in for a further downdraft.

Realistic: Let's wait a few weeks to see if gold does break through $300. I may be wrong, but the game isn's over yet.

Stock market holding up very well considering weakness in bonds. POG rebounding somewhat.

You, I, and aurator are friends. Cyber. Which is modern Platonic. Keep them links and comments coming.

Please take a look at the daily GCJ8 chart. Head and shoulder bottom forming with neckline at where? 310 will confirm?

I have bought gold stocks as a survival hedge after reading stuff such as
the Dines' letter that say that gold is the ultimate remedy for all
diseases. However, some questions remain: Let me take the following
case: A family father has earned 1 Mio by work and MSFT stocks. He has
bought a house on margin of the shares with 200 thousand "equity" and
400 thousand mortgage. If the stockmarket crashs and ends in depression
MSFT may be worth 200 thousand and his house 300,000. This leaves him with a debt of 600,000 and equity of 500,000: technically bankrupt.
Everybody would say: sell MSFT, repay the loan, be happy. But his
family wants to live in the house and in Germany it usually does not pay to sell a house if you want to stay in there.
So he buys gold stock. But is it a sure bet that gold will soar in a depression. It will, thereafter, in the hyperinflation. What is sure
that if he went short on MSFT he would only need 100,000 and ride the bear down to make 800,000. I am not sure whether he could do that with gold stock and neither, how much he would need to invest.
Any suggestions or preferences? Or is any "liberal" thought about alternatives to PM obscene at Kitco?

Perhaps you should write to the Islamic Development Bank and ask them what the Islamic Dinar is?
As of Muharram 1413 ( July 1992 ) , the authorized capital of the Bank was raised to Islamic Dinar ( ID ) 6.0 billion...
http://www.isdb.org/about/faq1/default.htm

chas,

I just looked at that chart. I don't have any experience in analyzing 5-min charts. but I will note that it shows a strong gap open to the downside which had no follow through
Gold made one attempt to close it and was beaten back. But again, there was no follow-through to the downside. And then gold made a second attempt to close it and the final bell saw the price near the high of the day.
I wouldn't want to go into tomorrow's trading short on gold with that chart staring me in the face.

What I'm really focused on is the XAU. The low for the day was 73.15 which means the gap from Friday failed to get completely closed. The XAU is now also near the highs of the day, down 1.05.

Let's see how it closes. Short-term, things are still a little bit up in the air.

The Preacher

Carl,

It looks like a head-and-shoulders bottom is forming to me also. The neck line is at $306.40. If we get above that then the target becomes $339.xx. IMO

The Preacher

You might enjoy this and you might not :- )

- http://www.aye.net/~bertar/rabbit/index.htm

.

"Which is modern Platonic."

....You mean "modem" Platonic?

Have you ever noticed, in just about every presidential cabinet and others in very high positions belong to the same organizations. I won'nt try to name them, I'll let you figure that out for yourself. I call it the octopus with one head and many tentacles reaching around the world. You might call it the good old guys club. Sorry, I did'nt mean to sound so flip in my response to you, but it's been a bad hair day for me.

I doubt anyone would consider comparing other investments to gold obscene, but your little math problem has a few holes before we look at it.

If a "mio" is a million earned by work and stock, why doen't the family man use some other money than a margin loan for his down payment on his $600,000 house? Is there a reason to pay this interest? He will be paying in after-tax dollars, right? So it's effectively double payment, maybe 16%.

Also, gold has gone up historically in buying power, relative to the cost of living, assets, etc. in deflations. But that hasn't always meant "soaring" prices. Did you do your homework on this one?

It was a simple mind trick and a not very good one at that.
Have a good day

"We have met the enemy and he is us." The Pogo Fallacy. It says if we were just better people, then the system would work. Keynes theory of debt currency would work. Congress would always have paid down debt in good times and only borrowed in bad times. If we were better people, we would be better voters and the system would work.

Well, damn, if that's not exactly what they said in the Soviet Union for 70 years about the communist system.

And what is it that the Pogo system and the communist system have in common ? Martial law rule for one thing. Debt for currency for another. Government run schools for a third. Constant propaganda telling people to be better is a fourth.

Some additional thoughts - I find your question interesting about why, if the Gold Dinar does not exist, would someone have gone to all the trouble/expense to create a web site for it?

I assume the available options are ( 1 ) It does exist, as advertised. ( 2 ) It does not exist ( now ) .

You and I, as well as others, have spent quite some effort trying to prove that ( 1 ) is true, with no positive results to date. Perhaps we should concentrate on the second option.

Some possibilities to justify the presence of the web site, if the Islamic Mint Gold Dinar does not exist are:

( a ) The site is for purposes of reinforcing Islamic principles to the faithful, and/or teaching them to others.

( b ) The site is for purposes of external ( gold-bugs? ) consumption. ( For what reason? ) ( A veiled threat to the paper interests? )

( c ) The site is there in preparation for a future installation of such a currency, perhaps coincident with events such as ANOTHER describes, or perhaps as a basis for a gold-backed currency block.

( d ) The site is a diversion or a complete scam, for some other unknown reason.

Can you suggest any other options?

Darn, it is off-topic, but how the hell did you do that? It worked seven times in a row. Coincidence?

Thanks for the chart look and interpretation.

"We have met the enemy and he is us." The Pogo Fallacy.

Put another way, if a form of government requires a new and improved version of mankind in order to deliver the promises of its proponents, it will not keep those promises. For, if mankind could be made angelic, no government at all would be needed.

Thank you Old Gold for your post. I, of
course, do certainly agree. I was talking
about just that inflationary side of the coin.

The were some posts that talked about deflation
in SE ASIA. Probably they meant devaluation?

I appreciate your questions. The tax situation in Germany is different from the US. If you hold stock for more than one year any capital gains are taxfree, ( likewise are gains from house sales after a longer period ) whereas certain house loans where deducible or subsidised You would just need the equity as a basis.
I hope I made things clear ( as a lay man ) The question about liberal thinking was just added to cause you experts to answer. I hope you don't mind.
I would welcome further inpt

Also see head and shoulders bottom forming. However, I don't know if the right shoulder bottom is in at about 292, or if we will drop to about 285 or so to finish the right shoulder. Any opinions?? Based on action today and yesterday, maybe one more drop, then upward.

RE: YOUR LITTLE RABBIT. Little slow today. That is cute. Will try it on my kids later.

For an interesting view of head and shoulder upside down mirror images, look at the daily chart of GCJ8 since Nov. 1997 and then go to the following site, set the time frame to Nov. 97 - present, click on US dollar in the first box and then on SDR's in the choice of currencies. Then take a gander at an evolving head and shoulders top with the head and shoulders in the same locations as GCJ8 bottoms. What do you think?

http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/cgi-bin/xrplot

Stock market closing strong despite bond selloff. If bonds dip below 6% again, the Dow could get close to 9000 in a big hurry.

As you are aware, I am very scepticle of how you describe the world. Are your "thoughts" intended to depict reality? I have read your posts through the October/November time period. You insinuate that there is something very disturbing about how and to whome the Central Banks loan out their gold. You say that there is more paper gold than actual physical gold. Is there evidence supporting this assertion? Do you mean to insinuate that the CB's have loaned out all their physical as well as gold they plan to have in the future? Don't central banks need gold to back their own currencies in the international market? If what you say is true, wouldn't governments want gold mines to keep producing, perhaps at an even faster rate? Yet they are closing, one by one. How, and why, do CB's keep gold mines out of the loop which you describe? I am beginning to understand your idea of how oil is traded for gold, but why not just let economics run its course?

Thanks for the look and opinion. Reading chart formations is not my thing, but I don't think we'll know about the formation until it either breaks down or does in fact finish up above the 308-310 area. IMveryHO

It could'nt hold above it's 12 day moving avg & POG could'nt stay over 300. May have to buy it back tomorrow. Thank goodness for discount brokers.

A gold stock is not gold. The stock of a bankrupt gold mine is worthless. Like a 1922 Cologne Bond. Paper rots and burns. Paper is a promise to pay. Promises are broken.

......is that when reality sets in, the crash that follows will most likely take everything else along with it. We live in a very over-extended time and I think that many here know who we are over-extended to.
Best the market loses steam slowly, giving the investor time to see the PM light and not according to some elitists timetable; which to me says destroy and conquer - the people of the USA.

Thanx a lot. I'm still lumbering thru comments ( ideas ) i want to pass by you. Will refine enough to stay inside encyclopediac size.

Do the calculations suggested by Another, look at average daily
volumes in London and Comex, Look at the open interest, extrapolate
the "suggested" inventories in London. There is, depending upon
the extrapolation, anywhere from 1 to 3 years overhang. Compare
to the meager inventories. All said and done, if all claims came
forward, there are roughly 400 paper claims for every ounce of gold.
Allow a year and 1 in 4 would be satisfied- *given the same market demand
as today*. Increase that demand, as in an investor surge, and the
proverbial sh..t hits the fan. The CBs are to put it mildly, *very
interested* in suppressing the price through the creation of new paper,
or the creation of rumor.

We think that nothing is powerful enough to stand before autocratic, monarchical, or despotic power. There is something strong enough, quite strong enough, --and, if properly exerted, will prove itself so, --and that is the power of intelligent public opinion in all the nations of the earth. There is not a monarch on earth whose throne is not liable to be shaken by the progress of opinion, and the sentiment of the just and intelligent part of the people.
Daniel Webster ( from a speech in 1852 )

SDRer - the graphically enhanced version ( sorry if already posted )
http://www.netmatters.co.uk/users/murabitun/Intro_dinar_dirham.html
( The last time I'll post this as it has an air of publicit )

Silverbaron:
from above ~ "The minting of the dinar and the dirham is therefore the first obligation of the Sultan to be commanded and to be followed." ~ Murabitun
I think this more a proposal of action than the announcement of a done deal.

Misc. coin photos for somebody out there -
http://www.dahlonegagold.com/dgcoins.htm#1
http://www.dataart.com/~skazmi/islamic.html

Aurator - thanks for the response ( watch the root-beer : )

I don't think it would be wise to bet the farm or house on 1 particular investment or equity. It remains to be seen how AU will perform in deflationary times. My own plan is simplicity itself. I will have a position in ABX, if & when it gets & stays above it's short term moving avg. My only core position in AU stocks are warrants for a closed end mutual fund ( BGR Prec metals ) . At the present time I have some jr gas & oil stocks ( mainly gas ) that have been performing well lately. My big bet is on the TSE index ( TIPS ) . I buy it when it moves above it's 24 day avg & sell it when it gets below. If it gets below & I have enough confidence that it will continue down, then I will go short.

I think we're having a little language problem here. When I lived in Germany, it was really painful trying to make myself understood in Deutsch, and bless the kind folks who struggled along with me. Let's be patient, and maybe we can formulate a question that will catch the attention of the REAL experts on this forum.

You wrote:

"Everybody would say: sell MSFT, repay the loan, be happy. But his
family wants to live in the house and in Germany it usually does not pay to sell a house if you want to stay in there."

Please clarify. Probably lost something in the translation.

"What is sure that if he went short on MSFT he would only need 100,000 and ride the bear down to make 800,000."

I don't know anyone who is that good a market timer. Maybe Jesse Livermore, but he's been dead for 60 years. A lot of people lost alot of money trying to pick the top in MSFT. You're not likely to find people here advocating this type of gambling. Even at 20 times book.

But if you're holding the stock in one account, while shorting it in another, aren't you going to lose a dollar on your short for every dollar you gain on your long if it keeps going up? Essentially, you're setting your price where you sell short. Why go to all the trouble when you can just sell it, and use the proceeds as your down payment.

"I am not sure whether he could do that with gold stock and neither, how much he would need to invest."

This is an interesting point to pursue. We know gold has increased in purchasing power, though not necessarily in price, in deflations. I've wrote a post quoting authorities on this a couple of months ago, maybe could dig up the source material again, but not today.

Sound to me like you've got a bad case of "fear and greed", those two opposing forces that move markets. Deal with the emotions first, and don't whine if you lose some capital gains if you sell part of your MSFT before it hits it's nadir.

Do you have even 1% of your net worth in PM?

Whatever, I'm out of here for today. Viel Gluck!

Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.83 ( This is not a new high )

XAU/Spot Ratio = .248

And who heard about what Greenspan said to a group of bankers in Hawaii?

He said that most of the elements that caused Asia's financial crisis were not applicable to the United states and its banking systems and also said that there was little chance now of Asia's crisis spreading and affecting the U.S. economy.

So, check out my previous post below and notice how the big ones sold bonds today! The perception is that there is very little chance for an ease now in the interest rates, the strong economy will continue to expand and who knows, maybe the trends of the past few years of increasing global stock markets is not about to end abruptly like so many are waiting for.

Thanks, I haven't seen any numbers in Another's work as of yet - will probably get to it in a couple days. But still, if the Central Banks need gold to come above ground, shouldn't they allow the price to rise so that mines will remain profitable? -c

Gold/Silver Ratio = 46.67

No one said that everything is perfect or would be so. Circumstances can be made better or worse. Don'nt we all strive to do better? Is it wrong to try to set things right, even if we know that because of the nature of man, there will always be glitches. Your last paragraph of your 1st post on pogo puzzles me. What in the world does pogo have to do with martial law and communism? And what does Keynesium have to do with communism? Our system, even with all it's faults, is superior to communism. The difference is, we still have greater freedom to act than any communistic system, but it seems we are gravitating towards communism, and are already socialistic.
Best regards, pete

I always get confused in this area because the intermarket dealings seem to not be the same as they used to be. It used to be that when one market went one way, another market followed it or went opposite of it. Gold for example seemed to be tied to the dollar and went the opposite. Then for some reason, it moved with the dollar. These intermarket relationships don't seem to be as reliable as they used to be.

Regarding stocks and bonds as an example, the usual opinion is that lower interest rates fuel the stock market ( ie bonds lead the stock market ) However, before last October, bond yields were rising ( bond price falling ) and the stock market was rising. When stocks tanked during the Asia crisis, bonds soared and yields went down. It looks like the stock market is leading bonds ( ie.. bonds are waiting for stocks to tank and then we'll see the bond market rally again with new or test of previous low or new low in yield.

What's your opinion of who is leading and following??

Maybe none of it!

Too many people think that because the bottom is in ( well, maybe ) , it has to go straight up and Gold will become the great investment that will outshine everything else.

Evidence now strongly suggest that Gold will trade within a narrow range of $290 to $310 or $320 for many years to come. This may not sound popular but it's an option that must be seriously considered. I think that only the next generation will witness a potential unbelievable pick up in prices of Gold.... when nobody will expect it to happen because they won't remember what Gold prices did a few times in the past.

Also, something to think about: Gold just barely made it above the $300 level by the end of last week and some whining from some central banks have already been heard yesterday! The message is clear....Gold is not to become what some goldbugs want it to be, no matter what!

Cut and paste problem. Nadir = zenith! Talk about confusing, and this is my milk language.

Selby,
If you have daily access to the Globe and Mail, I will give you the data to calculate it daily. It is my own, developed after using the McClellan's work for ten years on the U.S. general stock market. I have no problem with sharing it. E-mail me at stew001@ibm.net.

I had not visited that part of that site before! Thanks!
Added in the ECU...my goodness! That STRONG American dollar...and this gives one a view of Dollar against baskets, essentially...
http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/cgi-bin/xrplot
Thank you again, my friend. Needed that.

They are between a rock and a hard spot. If prices are allowed to
go up, invenstor demand might accelerate, and the inability to
meet demand would be obvious. Of course, they don't want to sell
all *their* gold. It would be swallowed into the black hole created
by the overhang. They can't allow it ( the pog ) to fall too far, or this
exascerbates the problem also, and production would soon fall to
seriously low levels- again exposing the shortfall. They thought
that by creating the paper market that the liquidity would spur
much greater exploration and development- enough to soak up the
overhang problem. Didn't happen. Go back and read all the posts
Another, et al, left- It's a fascinating idea.
I have to go back to work now.

I asked a simular Question of this forum as to how many actually owned physical gold. My bet is less than 20%. Shame on them, bring down a little fire and burn their paper.

Each person is entitled to his/her ( notice the political correctness ) own opinion on where gold is going. You could certainly be correct. I, however, disagree. While I certainly look at charts, history means more to me than the very near term. While gold may continue low for a while my guess, and that is what it is, is that by Dec. 1998 a major move up will have occurred. Why? Simply because lows,especially surpressed lows, reverse dramatically when they rebound. If in need of examples look at any set of futures charts over a two year to ten year period. Issue-has gold been artificially surpressed? I beleive so but no proof can be shown by a person not "in the know". Which I am not. I do say that the CB sales have been for a reason and that reason is NOT because gold has lost it's purpose as the prime asset of CB's. US, Germany, France, Russia been selling lately? No, buying probably-at least Russia is. How about BIS? Japan? No. The price in my opinion has been artificially surpressed. All those conveinient rumors since late 96-for a reason. Why? Don't know but do know it worked. By the way I'm no pure goldbug. I'd be in stocks if the situation was reversed and gold was at all time highs and stocks at all time lows. I'm in gold now but have a large reserve-just waiting for enough of a move to garner enough of a gain to minimize futher investment risk. With these lows, purschase of physical seems appropriate to me together with a few call options and a few late 98 or early 99 contracts-purchased on the dips-together with a few stocks. Just my less than expert unsophisticated opinions. Patience is a virtue. Tom

The best argument I've heard For gold is that at the current price, at least half of the mining companies in the world are losing money. If the price stays below 300 for another 6-12 months, these companies will go out of business and supply will decrease further, while demand continues to outstrip supply by an ever increasing margin. It is a myth that central banks will sell or lease all of their gold, especially at the lowest prices in 10 years, so prices will inevitably start back up. I agree with Old Man that it won't be a fast rise at first. The central bank overhang problem has been kicked around pretty thoroughly here in the past.

It would seem that I, the great skeptic, am the least disbelieving on this particular issue. The sites ( url sites i.e. ) are in North America, South Africa and Germany. The German site even has what appears--in a photo-- to be a newsletter! When I found the first site
http://www,zpub.com/aaa/dinar.txt
Donald immediately came up with the London site. If Im not mistaken, you brought forward the IDB, which holds its reserves in ID. That all the sites, other than the German site, are in English simply says to me that a diverse population--whose common bond is Islam--is being addressed. Nor frankly am I surprised about the stealth gold dinar --well...in the fullness of time, yes? Thank you again.

Hmmmm, SSC is down to 1.25 on a volume of 1,275,400. An ominous portent. I'm still holding my SSC but with my usual weak kneed fear and trembling.

Lease rates are up and I consider this bullish. There was a suggestion earlier today that this is not so. Any response would be appreciated. Perhaps this suggestion is from those who are short big time? I compared lease rates on silver over the last year and this indicates bullishness. My reason is that Ted Butler is propably correct that leasing held down the rates and now leasing may be ending or slowing-assumming there is much gold left to lease in the first place. Responses please. Tom

Realistic: You make the implicit assumtipn that the CBs are omnipotnet and can always keep gold just where they want it. That has indeed been the case for quite a while, but will it always be true. Gold soared during the 1970s despite heavy CB selling and will move again when the conditions are ripe. Besides we know that CB attitudes on gold differ greatly -- some of them would not mind if gold rallied sharply

You also make the implicit ( and very unrealistic ) assumption that the US always will be able to call all the shots and that foreigners will continue to support the dollar forever. Your position reminds me of the 1979 Business Week article, THE DEATH OF EQUITIES, which argued that stocks would stay depressed for many years.

I do agree that gold is unlikley to surge anytime soon,and the bull will start very slowly taking 3 steps back for every 4 steps forward. But it will still be a bull. And if Frank Venneroso is correct that the Asian crisis knocked POG down as much as $60, the recovery could be much faster than I am now assuming..

10. The death of communism marks a shift from a bipolar world, with two military camps allied with either Washington or Moscow, to a multipolarworld of economic competition. This shift will fracture the Western Alliance. In the future, there will be at least three major blocks. North America, doimnated by the United States, will compete with the Pacific Rim, dominated by Japan, and the European Community, dominated by Germany. In the past, the move to a multipolar environment in wrold politics has destabilized the international economic ssystem, contributing to deflationary collapse.

This last point is particularly important, and perphaps likely to be misunderstood. As Charles Kindleberger emphasized in his explaination for the Great Depression of 1929, one of the chief reasons for the collapse was that there was no longer a single country ( Britian had receeded into debt ) willing or able to discharge the following functions:

1 ) maintain a relatively open market for distress goods;
2 ) providing countercyclical, or at least stable long term lending;
3 ) policing a relatively stable system of exchange rates
4 ) ensuring the coordination of macroeconomic policies;
5 ) acting as a lender of last resort by discounting or otherwise providing liquidity in financial crisis.

what in the world is happening to grains and
bonds? who suggested shorting both with options?

where is realistic when he is really needed?
how about some comex inventories? gee whiz....
good work......

the saddle awaits my return......it will be with a vengance.
fixing to bail from the left-coast heading east.....
home, where the children and family roam....too much
time has passed....the future awaits.....NOW.
cherokee!;....hunting-at-huntington-beach....

Yesterday I saw to much pressure on gold so I sold my April 300 calls for a little profit. I am still holding April 290 puts but time is getting short ( 9 trading days ) . Got stopped out of my silver position at $6.35 today and look to get back in at $5.80. Bought some OEX March 500 puts yesterday at 5 3/4 and sold today at 7 3/8.

Still holding out for $285 spot gold so I can buy more Phillies for under $300 each. I have bought all my coins for under $300 each and then I simultaneously bought Dec 99 270 puts for protection. My downside risk is less than 10%. This is the most conservative coin purchase play I know of. Upside is large and downside limited.

The bond market closed above the 6% mark again today and this should have been bearish for stocks but it keeps on going. When the market does correct it might take PM stocks with it ( 87 ) and the risk it to great for my blood.

Gold failure to close above $300 spot and rumors of Korean dishoarding does not look good for gold short term. Then if that wasn't bad enough, we have the ECU currency gold reserve announcement haunting us.

Another: I sure hope the BIS has deep pockets and can support $280.

Left in the lurch by the Annan peace
accord, could it be that Iran still wants
a piece of Iraq?


"According to Agence France Presse, Iranian
forces attacked Iraq on Sunday night, raiding
anti-Iranian guerrillas based in Iraq. The
attacks took place along the central front,
due east of Baghdad. Mujahadeen sources in
Iraq described a pitched battle covering
several hundred square kilometers,
including everything from rocket attacks to
hand to hand combat."

This was a probe---Rafshanhani ( sp )
just finished an eleven day visit to Saudi
Arabia. The question is: Would the US
attempt to stop Iran from taking the southern
portion of IRAQ?

GO OIL/GOLD

OldGold....The CB's are not omnipotent, but remember that they have a 20+ year supply of Gold in storage at current consumption rates, even if all mines close tomorrow.... This being the case, their target price for Gold, and perception of Gold's role, and the financial community/public at large's PERCEPTION of the CB influence....will, IMHO, have more sway over Gold's price than any other market factor we discuss here. Barring of course the post millenial Apocolypse!

All...... Thank you for supportiveness re health problem, and advice. I especially likes Sharefin's advice ;- )

Now...what's going to happen with Silver in March? Looks like my target Thursday for $7.00 silver isn't in the cards..that's OK, let the market be stagnant, it'll give me a chance to add positions over the physical. Got some SSC today finally.....

Another emerging camp should be considered: the Middle East.

to move up. I recall that in the months before the last move up at the end of 1995, gold lease rates went up dramatically. The same happened to silver just recently. I doubt that the recent move up in leasing rates to over 2% is enough to indicate a move up as yet. However, if leasing rates continue to climb from here, I would bet that a good tradable move is on the way.

What a bunch of wimps!!
OK--so gold didn't quite make it over the 300 hump THIS time. I've never seen so many white flags waving.

Now how about going back just a bit--gather some strength-- and we'll have another go at it soon. Minimum 340 in the next 6 months. THEN the real fun will start. IF gold does not break through 340 later this year, then get your stops in because if you blink you may miss 277 on the way down. That's right folks--Decisively through 340 this year or we may be headed lower ( 200-250 range ) . Look at the long-term chart. The line connecting the 85 and 93 lows was breached at 340 on the downside in 97. Unless we get back above that line--long term we are headed lower. All IMHO of course.

I've haven't seen any reference to the following collection of articles that have been printed in various publications. I found them on another site. I'm sure many here will be interested in some of these articles.

http://www.year2000.com/articles/NFarticles.html

Even if you don't believe there will be a major Y2K problem that will come about from crashing databases, I do believe there will be much collateral damage which will result, not to mention the confustion. To think that the week or month after 1/1/2000 will just be another week/month I believe is very shortsighted.

I've been a businessman who's owned his own business for over 25 years and deal with a great many vendors who I must depend on for products for my own customers. Whenever I think about that, I start thinking about my upcoming retirement and wonder if nows the time. ( With or without social security, medicare ect. )

Perhaps some quite time devotion should be given to this problem by all and especially those who seem to be in complete denial regarding this being any more than hype for profit. ( won't mention names ) I've always liked to play a what if game. It can lead to some rather interesting possibilities.

If $300 - $600 million is expected to be spent on resolving the Y2K crisis, that's only the beginning. I expect to see tons of litigation. What'll that cost? If the $300-$600 is an estimate, do you seriously think it won't be in multiples more than that? ( especially if the government is doing the estimating ) I've never figured a project I haven't added up to 50% additional for complicated projects, to cover the unknowns which any business person knows always seems to enter into the equation.

What will that do for profits, the stuff which drives the market? Does anyone think that won't cause a serious problem with stocks? Then perhaps you'll see the metals as they've been in the past.

I guess I'm used to looking at future times instead of what's happening today due to my business background, but I think what most you of seem to be doing on this tread have the right idea. Patience, your time will come.

Looking at the back page of Monday's FT, large article,
"30 killed in Serb clashes with Albanian rebels"
"...up to 30 people killed in Serbia's southern province...police forces back by helicopters..." doesn't that sound like US involved
in shooting skirmish ( ? ) ..."police action"...oh! not again!

GOLD WILL ALWAYS DO JUST THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE THINK, WHICH INCLUDES GOLDBUGS! LAST WEEK WHO WOULD OF GUESSED THAT GOLD WOULD REBOUND SO QUICKLY! SO EVERYBODY TAKE A DEEP BREATH AND RELAX!!!!

particularly among Asian buyers. Ferdi Dippenaar, Harmony's commercial director, said market research suggested Harmony could command a premium of up to $1.50 a troy ounce for its branded gold. It has central bank permission to sell all its 24 tonnes of annual output directly from the end of this year. This could add $2.2m to income.

Harmony also saves on refining and handling costs and the extra benefit should total $3m and $4m.

For the project Harmony has set up its own refinery--only the second in South Africa--using a novel technique developed for small scale operations. It offers substantial savings, and is said to produce gold of 99.99 per cent purity."
FT, Kenneth Gooding, Mining Correspondent
Mar 2, 1998 Monday

http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/98/03/03/international_news/europeser_1.html

The current outlook is STRONGLY BULLISH, primarily because of strongly bullish traders' commitments for gold and slightly bearish traders' commitments for the "white" metals; a generally neutral and rapidly improving technical chart for the yellow metal as it continues to retest its 1985 bottom, with a break of the downward trendline connecting the peaks on a weekly chart from the first week of February 1996 increasingly likely as it coincides with the past of least resistance, and which would be strongly bullish; generally pessimistic analysts' and investors' behavior, as evidenced by the powerfully negative comments about gold in the first quarter of 1998 each time that it has a moderate down day, combined with a nearly unanimous brokerage downgrade of price estimates for gold and gold mining shares; a meaningful historic correlation between the early years of a major worldwide bear market in equities and a corresponding sharp rise in precious metals, with the recent Dow rise coupled with rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields making a decline from the stock market's peaks increasingly likely, and having a close linkage with a weaker dollar which is classically bullish for gold. An increasing army of short-selling speculators have been unable to push gold below $300 for any sustained length of time, and they are surely sitting with tens of thousands of contracts of buy stops not far above $300.

OK, as a G-Bug I'll take you up on that, Gold is Going down to 250. tomorrow.....

Just make sure you are not in a hospital dependent on an IV unit at the time..or in an OR..or about to be defibbed, etc. Chances are everything will be alright, chances...

Midwesterner - You are quite right. Your greatest vulnerability will be your suppliers AND your customers ( not the credit card system per se, but possibly the bank you do business with or your customers use or possibly the link between them which facilitates the transfer of funds ) . The question is do you manufacture something that people NEED or desire. If it is a need item you probably have a good shot of surviving and prospering even if there are large scale problems. Just get the supply and distrubution chain nailed down defore hand.

Good luck.

Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after trading today:

Gold: Unchanged ( again! ) at 480,910 troy ounces

Silver: Rose 281,233 troy ounces to 89,739,098 -Just above a 15 year low

LGB: CBs do indeed have a 20 year supply, but they had a 30 year supply in the 1970s when gold prices soared 20 fold. As Milhouse says in his latest article on golden eagle, when investor confidence finally turns down in a big way.gold will rise sharply no matter what the CBs do. Too, much of the CB gold has already been leased. And do you really think the CBs are anxious to sell much more at current depressed prices?

Today's anti-gold statements from the Portugese CB did not surprise the market much methinks. The market has long been aware of that CB's anti-gold attitude. Rumors have cropped up frequently the last few years about Portugese selling. Looks like these may have been correct.

Gold down another 30 cents on access. Looks like a few more bucks on the downside before the next rally.

Looking more and more like a classic blowoff top in stocks. The next few weeks promise to be great, but after that hold on to your wallets.

To all:
I've just reviewed all my charts and have little to add to last night's comments.
Only 30-yr. bond yields made a significant move today. And it was in the right direction.

Nothing else has changed much.

I'm still of the opinion that gold cannot "drift up" to $320. There must be some explosive action to get there.
( I see the same need in the dollar index market. If the dollar is to break its 100- and 200-day MAs, it will need some explosive downward action to do it. )
Gold has both its MAs above its head right now, as well as a downtrend line formed over the past two years. To take these out will require some $5-$12 up days. Moving $1.60 a day won't cut it.

In reading Kaplan's report, I see what could trigger explosiveness in gold: " An increasing army of short-selling speculators have been unable to push gold below $300 for any sustained length of time, and they are surely sitting with tens of thousands of contracts of buy stops not far above $300."

If these "weak" shorts are forced to cover en masse, then we could see some explosive action.

The Preacher

Regarding your post on the inflation-deflation question. The events now taking place in southeast Asia are really currency devaluations. From the point of view of the locals it has the appearance of inflation because prices go up in local currencies. Prices are stable to declining for the same items purchased in hard currencies or silver and gold. That is a subtle point but an important one to understand. Shopkeepers are being used as scapegoats by government.

Further, you have to differentiate between everyday items such as food and gasoline and luxury items such as the more expensive autos or real estate. There are fewer buyers for luxury items and in some countries these items are declining in price even in local currencies. While Hong Kong has not had a devaluation ( yet ) real estate prices are down 20% over recent months.

In addition to the problem of weak currencies you have an equally serious problem in production overcapacity. The best example of that is auto production. By the year 2000 the world will have factories running with the capacity to produce 80 million autos per year. That is clearly deflationary. There are further examples in computer/electronics etc. There will not be enough cash flow to keep this highly leveraged manufacturing capacity current with debt obligations in very short order. That is another deflationary influence. There are many more that will become apparent in the near future.

I know that it is difficult to believe deflation is possible having lived all our lives in an inflationary world but that is going to be the outcome.

I think you're correct - most of the damage will likely be of the relatively short-term nature, but I am particularly concerned about the effects of systemic transportation breakdown - ie. lost rail cars, etc. which could present some real pressures for inflation on the finished goods side of things, while causing deflationary pressures on the manufacturing side.Whatever happens, you can be sure that there will be some excellent money-making opportunities for the nimble investor who has conserved his capital, and has vision past the crisis.

I think you're correct - most of the damage will likely be of the relatively short-term nature, but I am particularly concerned about the effects of systemic transportation breakdown - ie. lost rail cars, etc. which could present some real pressures for inflation on the finished goods side of things, while causing deflationary pressures on the manufacturing side.Whatever happens, you can be sure that there will be some excellent money-making opportunities for the nimble investor who has conserved his capital, and has vision past the crisis.

preacher: Enjoy your market comments. Make a lot of sense to me.

Hong Kong Business Standard, Wed Mar 4, 1998

Yam urges Japan to stabilise its currency

Hong Kong Monetary Authority ( HKMA ) Chief Executive Joseph Yam on Tuesday urged Japan to stabilise the yen to keep other Asian currencies from falling. A Bank of Japan official said Mr Yam made the request at a meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Yasuo Matsushita. According to Takashi Anzai, executive director at the Japanese central bank, Mr Yam told Mr Matsushita a weak yen ``could have an adverse effect on Asia''.
http://www.hkstandard.com/online/finance/001/hksfin.htm

Now, what is the VERY best way to 'stabilise' a currency?

How impressive LGB2.Someone actually got the priorities straight.Your
numbers still s*k though.

Nick...Call up all yer Aussie mining co's and ask them are the reports
true that while we hear they have sold four years of production forward,
they sit like gorillas read to take a cr*p over the gold market when it
breaks above 300.Huh?The traders have been using this for weeks son.

Old Gold Dude...how many times ya got ta be puplicly wrong before ya stop
these predictions of yours?Only the gorillas in our midst know when the
POG is going to rebound.It has to do with time AND price.Don't ask why.

Lurkers all....noone of the folks on this or any other web site know when
gold is going to reverse fer sure.Everyone is guessing.That's it.A guess.
Many varied positions here.Everyone hopes.Everyone loves gold.

If everyone would quit the G*damn whining and do some research,you too
could be a goldberg...er goldbug.Oh ya.Oh ya.

I love you all man.I really do!

Away... to lobby the Portugease...sorry goose.

Bond plans disappoint some bankers

BEIJING: New details of China's plan to recapitalise ailing state banks with a US$32.5 billion bond issue disappointed bankers
and analysts on Tuesday.

The China Securities newspaper said the ``special bonds'' would be issued to the BANKS THEMSELVES.

Although the report did not say where the purchase funds would come from, there was speculation the government might cut bank reserve requirements to free up the cash.

``In terms of creation of money it's an accounting trick - there is no new money,'' said Ken Chan, an economist with Nikko Securities in Hong Kong. ``But the nature of this money has changed. It used to be on the liability side and now it will be on the equity side.''
http://www.hkstandard.com/online/finance/001/china/fina001.htm

I like this story. {:- )

To all:

Tonight is a slow night here at Kitco. So I have a real live story that may help someone somewhere down the line.
Something quite interesting happened in the market of a Vancouver Stock Exchange company today. It's no big deal, but it's the kind of thing that sometimes makes a bigger difference than one might imagine.

The stock is Sterling Pacific Resources ( SRZ ) . Prior to today, the high for the year has been C$.19. People began buying it today at C$.20 and there weren't any offers this side of C$.24.
Then, out of the blue, 10,500 shares get dumped "at the market" and the stock falls to C$.14.
VSE penny stocks involve a lot of confidence to reach their respective price levels. They are mostly very thinly traded and one seller can knock them for a loop.
Now this seller might have been forced to sell by the compliance department of a brokerage house, who really don't care what happens to the market as long as they get the money owed to them.
But such an event hurts confidence because now, buyers who were considering buying at C$.20 or even stepping up and bidding at C$.21, don't want to because the last guy just paid C$.14, and "he might know more than I do."
Something like this can hurt a stock for two or three weeks sometimes.
In this case it didn't. More buyers came in and the next trades took place at C$.20, where it closed.
That seller should have offered his stock at C$.20 or C$.21. He would have gotten filled, it just would have taken a little longer.
But he got blitzed and someone got a bargain.

The Preacher

Although the syntax and style is different, HepMeMoney might just be ANOTHER. Have you noticed they both spell "noone" the same?

The Preacher

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980303/portugal_g_2.html

The man says.. ya got to have a membership card to get inside.Oohh.

I am not Another,nor do I subscribe to the thoughts of another.There is
just not enough gold in the world to make these thoughts a reality.

They are simply thoughts.You have them.I have them.Thoughts.

Away...to think thoughts of Another mind.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980303/sakura_ban_1.html

Irish punt; lira; peseta; markka; escudo; D. krone; F. Franc;DMark; Schilling; Guilder; B-Franc"Almost everyone is a winner in the Emu numbers game" [headline] But can the achievements behind the European monetary convergence figures be kept up? Already, German Eurosckeptics are lining up to attack. They allege that some of the figures published last week were subject to CREATIVE ACCOUNTING [my goodness! that IS shocking news! sdrer]. Erwin Huber, Bavarian finance minister, called for a "very strict" examination of the data, warning that this government
would "not accept any tricks"."

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980303/21_japanes_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980303/u_s_yield__2.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980303/china_yuan_1.html

" Severest Consequences " will result if do not own up to being Another.

no one

http://www.amcity.com:80/sanfrancisco/stories/030298/newscolumn1.html

- Are Con Men Manipulating the Markets?

Black Monday

On the last Monday in October, the Dow dropped
550 points and, to everyone's relief, the
exchanges stopped the trading thirty minutes
early. If the new rules had not required the
halt, it might have been much worse. Is this the
beginning of the great crash?

If it is, it won't be from a lack of planning on
the part of President Clinton, Robert Ruben and
the Federal Reserve. According to credible
sources, it has become government policy to
"protect" the investment community from the laws
of gravity.

The government has even admitted as much. Alan
Greenspan gave a speech in Lueven, Belgium on the
14th of January, this year, in which he touted
the Fed's obligation to bail out banks and
private financial institutions not just by
printing unlimited amounts of money but also
through "direct intervention in market events."

S&P 500 Contracts

For a while now, there have been rumours among
traders that the US government was stepping into
the market from time to time to purchase S&P
contracts. The obvious reason was to thwart short
sellers and stem possible panics.

The rumours held that the government was buying
S&P futures contracts through the good offices of
Goldman Sachs, the firm once headed by Treasury
Secretary Robert Ruben.

If true, many people must have known about it.
Everyone who did would be in a position to profit
dramatically by purchasing the S&P futures in the
full knowledge that the federal government was
poised to intervene in the market to guarantee
the profitability of their trades. Under those
conditions, anyone could trade S&Ps as profitably
as Hillary Clinton did cattle futures.

But I was sceptical. After all, such activity
would ( or should ) require congressional approval.
Also, if short selling is a legally sanctioned
activity, wouldn't it be highly illegal to
secretly intervene with public funds on behalf of
the longs and ignore the rights of the shorts?
But seeing is believing, and now I'm convinced
its true.

Tawdry Tuesday

The next morning after Monday's big 550 point
break, I, and everyone else trading S&Ps
witnessed a most remarkable event. It must have
been the most blatant display of market
manipulation in the history of Wall Street. Or at
least the biggest and most public. In spite of
this, to my knowledge, not a peep was made by the
establishment press.

The tip-off was the "timing" of a dramatic rise
in the premium ( number of points in which the S&P
contracts were trading in excess of the value of
the underling stocks ) .

I have traded the S&P for years and I've never
seen anything like it. The average "fair value"
of the premium that day was 600 points.

Exactly six minutes before Bill Clinton was to
address the market crisis on television, the
premium rose almost instantly to 3,500. This was
undoubtedly caused by the concerted purchase of
what had to have been at least a billion dollars
worth of S&P contracts.

The Computers Blinked

The strange thing is that it almost failed to
work.

Normally, anytime the premium rises just a little
bit above the fair value, computers which are
programed by the arbitrage investment groups
automatically enter orders to sell the overvalued
contracts and simultaneously enter orders to buy
the undervalued stocks generating an automatic
riskless profit. But this time it didn't work. At
least not like it should have.

The premium rise was so fast and so big that,
evidently, the fail-safe systems kicked in
whereby the computer didn't believe what it saw.
Under these conditions, it stops trading and
calls a human to see what is wrong.

When I saw the 3,500 premium, I thought the same
thing. Some kind of computer error. I immediately
looked to see if the stock prices were rising,
and they weren't. Dead in the water!

I looked up at the TV, saw Bill, and it dawned on
me.

It was Slick Willie doing what he does best.
Blatant manipulation of the highest order.

I jumped in and made a very good profit. A lot of
other traders did too. Of course Hilliary and
Craig Livingstone were way ahead of me. But the
computers were slower than all of us.

It took about a half hour for their operators to
override the systems and order the mass purchases
of stock that the feds had been counting on.
Ultimately, though belatedly, it still worked.

A New Bull Market?

All things considered, the con was perfect.

The back of the would-be crash was broken and the
bull was reborn. At least for now. The real
mystery is why and how the media keeps mum.

A concerted investigation by the Wall Street
Journal, New York Times or Washington Post would
surely reveal enough evidence to blow this
outrage sky high. This is nothing less than the
illegal clandestine tampering with the free
market.

But like the murder of Vincent Foster, the
rigging of Wall Street is a dirty little secret
the media establishment would rather not reveal.

The "Big Lie" & Waiting for the "Second Shoe"

The American people suffer less from ignorance
and more from an illusion of knowledge. The
percieved knowledge that the proveribal "freedom
of the press" will protect their society from the
"Big Lie."

I, for one, want to congratulate the Laissez
Faire City Times on its first issue today on the
internet.

Just as the VCR helped to strip the scales of
socialist government duplicity from the eyes of
the Russian people, it is the internet and
efforts like this newspaper which will ultimately
do the same for the Americans.

Hopefully with the same result. I can't wait to
see the other shoe drop.

Let freedom ring!











v----------------

Donald_A ( 20:40 ) Looks like the Japanese Banks are desperate to get their hands on the "public funds" before the planned Japanese "Big Bang" on April 1.

Three weeks ago, a Japanese Banker, Mr Yoh Kurosawa of the Industrial Bank of Japan, told a Parliamentary Committee that he expected only TEN of 148 Japanese banks would survive the big bang.

The banks are obviously desperate to cut the Japanese people off at the pass. Get the money NOW - before the savers get the chance to send it outside Japan to earn a higher return.

All:

The silver market is very quiet of late. Order flow is very low and dealers are just pushing in whatever direction seems easiest trying to run some stops. There is pretty good buying support around the 625 - 630 level and no real selling to found. There seems to be small commercial buying coming in as consumers are resigning themselves to the current price range. Choppy trading with a bias to the upside seems to be in order.

The gold market is getting interesting. There is apparently one central bank with an aggressive straddle, who would like to see gold stay very near 300. If we get over about 302 on spot we should see a break to the upside possibly reaching 305. 305 might stimulate more buying interest and start the ball rolling. One month lease rates are now running close to 4%. If there are central banks out there with lots of gold to lend and are eager to do so, one must wonder why they have not stepped to the plate. 4% is a very juicy number. Perhaps last weeks move by the Bank of Belgium was the proverbial ringing of the bell.

The action in the US bond market is terrible. Not a lot of news, no problem with the dollar, minor reversals in commodities, and 6% barely put up a struggle.

The unemployment report on Friday could as usual be a market mover. Going in the general consensus is for a slowdown from the torrid pace of new job creation. The big number to watch is the hourly wage figure. A bad number here will not be well digested.

Fortune article dated Feb 2, 1998

http://www.pathfinder.com/fortune/pfortune/0202aga.html

All That Glitters. Why would anybody still invest in gold? Because it is cheap, says Ed Levy of Levy Harkins, a New York hedge fund. The metal just crashed to an 18-year low of $282 an ounce, but Levy calls it another discredited asset class that one day will regain its shine. That's why he owns gold-mining stocks like Royal Oak Mines and Bema Gold, which have sizable gold reserves, and Golden Star Resources, which owns shares in significant new discoveries in South America. But Levy says the metal won't start to run until "all of us who own gold run out of patience." What'll be the catalyst? Levy doesn't have a clue, but he points out that so much gold has been sold short that even a moderate squeeze by speculators could boost prices. If that happens, mutual fund companies could start loading up on gold stocks. "Do you know what would happen if Fidelity put 2% of its portfolio in gold?" he asks. "It would go berserk." Crazier things have happened.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980302/yamana_res_1.html

A 2.4 oz. piece of cake from the wedding of the Duke and Duchess of Windsor was auctioned off for $29,900 last month. This is $140 more than the price of 100 oz. of gold right now.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980303/ontario_te_1.html

Another is Big Trader and he is a regular poster. His household has two computers with different e-mail addresses or he has a second office computer at home. He has told others of his THOUGHTS and they want to play. They participate by e-mailing to Another and he posts using his registration. He is over 40 years old and has an income of no more than $65,000 year. He owns a few gold coins but no PM stocks. Unfortunitly he gets more respect as Another than his other handle.

Another you are the BEST. Keep it up!

I don't understand why my Fidelity SelectAmericanGold and SelectPreciousMetals rises and falls in lockstep with the price of gold. I am especially dumbfounded how the intraday moves mirror gold.

Why in the world would investors sell their shares of mining stocks with each $.10 drop in gold and then buy the shares back with every $.10 increase? It would seem that those investing in precious metals at this point in the game would have a longer view.

Also, following price shifts instead of forecasting them is surely a losing strategy. Buying a share of a mining stock after gold rises during intraday price shifts won't benefit you until that gold is mined. There must be a time lag between the change in the POG and the benefit to the shareholder than the immediacy I notice in intraday fund volatility.

Any explanations?

Realistic - earlier today you said that the Portugese CB will transfer $1 billion in reserves to the EMU, $20 million of which would be gold. The attached article said that they would in fact transfer $1 billion in reserves but that the amount of gold had not been determined. Where did you get the $20 million gold figure? This would be extremely low and I'm curious as to how valid the number might be. Does anyone know what the total Portugese CB gold holdings are now? Would greatly appreciate if someone could provide this number.

http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2553180272-c8c

I like the look of the rise in lease rates on gold. Pressure is rising somewhere, and it might get very painfull to those selling the market short.

Look for the cork to pop if this keeps up.

Thank you for your comments. I'd still like to know who indicated that higher lease rates are bearish. Anybody got an answer? Thanks. Tom

NEO-STAGFLATION....

Deflation bogeyman has been disseminated by Wall Street in order to convince investors that, if they don't like the stock market, they best put their monies in the bond market ( not Precious Metals ) . Naturally, in a deflationary scenario, interest rates fall, and bonds soar. Bottom Line: Wall Street is doing everything in its power to ensure that PM's do not become a favored repository of American investors' funds. Skyrocketing values in PM's greatly undermine the financial status quo that favors the American-dominated global markets.

I warned many friends to avoid this Wall Street propagandistic manipulation...in fact, I went down on my knees with some of them and BEGGED THEM not to place any monies in bonds. I categorically predicted the current bearish scenario now unfolding in the bond market; it will only exacerbate as the TORRENT of newly printed money ( printed in the aftermath of the October crash in order to maintain liquidity ) begins to hammer bonds even further over the short-term..

As Milton Friedman said, deflation is a non-issue...it can easily be prevented by turning on the money printing presses and providing easy credit to world consumers ( exactly what Greenspan has done ) . In the space of several weeks, manufacturing overcapacity can transform itself into goods shortages. Moreover, in America -- no longer a manufactured goods economy but rather a service and information economy -- too many dollars chasing a fixed supply of services and information providers is the main threat...certainly there is no threat of service or information oversupply in America given the enormous wealth creation over the past decade leading to increased demand for such services and information.

In conclusion, I do not believe we will see either a pure deflation or a pure inflation...instead, it will be what some economists are describing as "NEO-STAGFLATION." What is that? Essentially, it is a stagflation that takes place in an economy at full employment rather than in an economy with high unemployment ( such as we saw in the Carter years ) . The net result: falling prices with rising interest rates. The interest rates rise in order to preclude foreign investment capital from exiting domestic markets ( imperative in order to maintain strength of U.S. dollar, stock, and bond markets ) . Prices fall because, initially, cheap manufactured goods flood into the country. However, eventually, the new wealth effect translates into significantly increased demand for services, information, and vital commodities, ultimately leading to slingshot effect in these prices and a vicious circle necessitating even higher interest rates to stem sectoral hyperinflations.

Ultimate result: dollar, stock, and bond crash sends investors fleeing into skyrocketing PM's.

This analysis is sent to you on a brilliant cloud of heavenly insight from...FARFEL ( the Unpronounceable ) .

Just received this in my e-mail. End of the world? No!! Pain in your behind? Yes!! Cleaning up your credit record is not something I want to deal with!!
======
a true case that happened to one of my clients. The client, a bank, had a loan customer that had pre-paid his loan into the year 2000. The next payment date showed 1/5/00. The customer was reported more that 35,000 days past due and reported to the credit bureau. The system understood the next payment to be due 1/5/1900.
====

I hope the positive interpretation of the rise in lease rates is
correct. However, one could also place a negative interpretation on
the rise. The rise in rates at the short end and the inversion of
the yeild curve could indicate short selling or renewed C.B. selling or
both. Time will tell but I think caution is warranted.

( clipped from a local paper somewhere and sent to me, date unknown )

In his second day of congessional testimony, the Fed chief high-lighted a major story that has yet to make its way to the headlines of the financial press: the advent of a single European currency, the "euro", set to make its debut in January.

Although the initial members of the euro currency family have not yet been determined, the euro has the potential to significantly change the dynamics of the world currency trading and global asset valuations.

"You cannot create a single currency in that large an area, at that level of economic activity, without significant impacts on the United States," Greenspan said.

"So far as I am concerned, I would like to see nothing better than the euro to come into the market as a major new currency and compete with us. I think it would make us better.... If they can make it work effectively, I cannot see how it can not be a very positive force for not only us, but [for our] Japanese and latin American partners as well."

~~~

Here's that $20 million you asked about. I personally think the other article has better credibility. This story mentions Gold's "28 year low" in January vice the actual 18 1/2 year low and calls a 2 point drop in the pog a "plunge." Typical AP reporting, "more story tales" than facts. Everything else aside, $20mil is nothing in terms of gold anyway. This "mystical value" stuff is BS. I think that this story is dead.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/f/AP-Commodities.html

- c

Thats only 2% of gold backing for 1 billion dollars. It only amounts to 2 tons of gold.

and throw every spare dime at P.M.s, the hell with the little price fluctuations, you're lookin'at a no risk situation here.NO RISK SITUATION! Buy the gold. It will go up, most probablly dramatically.If it does go down a little, don't worry, buy some more.What ya got ta lose? What ya got ta gain?

Well I guess the EU is going to require 2% gold backing from the new members like Bank of Portugal.
Bank of Portugal governor Antonio de Sousa said gold's long history as a valuable investment -- it's ``mythical quality'' -- was no longer a reason for keeping it as a government asset.
In remarks to the European Union's monetary subcommittee, he also called it ``much more rigid than a treasury bond.'' And he said Portugal would move $1 billion worth of reserves -- $20 million in gold reserves -- to the European Central Bank, which will be created with the EU's launch early next year of the single euro currency.
I quit! Good night

Clone - thanks for the article. I hope you are right and that the 2% is false reporting. It certainly would be a very ominous development.

DA's post earlier tonight was interesting. Something very strange is going on. Lease rates up, CB's talking gold down. The CB's can't be so stupid that they would talk gold down and then sell their holdings. It doesn't make sense.

Farfel: Only 20 trading days left until your DOW 10,000 prediction comes true. Oh oracle of Delphi, beware the sin of hubris.

March 3, 1998
Leading U.S. Democrat seen switching gears on IMF

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The second-ranking Democrat in the House of Representatives, David Bonior, may switch gears and support an $18 billion package for the International Monetary Fund if oversight is improved and Washington presses for IMF reforms, his office said Tuesday.

Minority Whip Bonior, who threatened in January to oppose the funding and IMF bailouts for troubled Asian economies, will support the package if the Clinton administration takes steps to oversee the IMF and make it more accountable, Bonior's spokeswoman Gretchen Kline said."He will not support it if these first steps are not undertaken," Kline added. "We can't continue to support the status quo."

Bonior's willingness to support the IMF package could mark a breakthrough for the administration, which wants a skeptical Congress to approve the IMF funding to replenish resources drained by last year's multibillion-dollar bailouts for Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand.

The left-leaning Michigan Democrat, who was instrumental in last year's defeat of fast-track trade legislation, could help the
administration win IMF funding in the House.
House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt has already joined the Clinton administration's IMF campaign.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/IMF-CONGRESS.html

March 3, 1998
Key U.S Democrat says fast track could have passed

WASHINGTON, March 3 ( Reuters ) - President Bill Clinton would probably already have fast-track trade negotiating authority if he had decided to allow a vote in the House to go ahead last November, a leading Democratic lawmaker said Tuesday.

"I'll never believe if we had a vote on the floor of the House we would not have found 218 votes""to pass fast track, Rep. Charlie Stenholm, a Texas Democrat, said in a speech to state agriculture department directors.

Still, it is likely that fast-track negotiating authority **will not** be approved by April, when Clinton travels to Chile in April to launch talks on a Free Trade Agreement of the Americas, USDA Foreign Agriculture Administrator Lon Hatamiya said.

That is "unfortunate," he said, because it "raises questions about U.S. leadership.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/KEY-US-DEMOCRAT-SAYS.html

Themissinglink - my guess is that what you observe is due to the law of large numbers. The mutual funds hold a large number of companies in their portfolios. While one particular stock might not respond to small changes in the POG, the aggregate changes in share price of a large number of stocks should mirror more closely the price of gold. The larger the number of stocks, the closer it will track.

Midwesterner is right on the money. Each one of us
should take some serious time to understand what could
be the effects of systems failures even if it is only
10%. The disruption that occurs will be impacted.

What troubles me is Germany industry lags behind in
fixing their systems --only 5% have started. How are
the Asians going to tackle this issue with their present
problems? Prepare for the worst, pray for the best.

Now that's a good one! I'd like to see some more of this REAL stuff from other Y2K.

Thanks for your 21:15 post. Kinross/Amax news seems to be a rarity. Was about to pray over it then bury it. Anything that don't move that long, gotta be dead!

I can say I sold something a hundred times and unless someone calls my hand , who knows for sure. I think this gold loan, lease, what ever you want to call it, is gonna bite someone in the a-- before long. Since they already have most of mine, I think it's their turn. CHOMP---CHOMP

Why buy SSC for $1.25 when it only has a BV of $0.20.

Why not buy CDE for $11.375. It's BV is $14.71

Is there something great about SSC, or something wrong with CDE?

I have 70% of my portfolio invested in gold coins.
I'm not sure why. I think gold stocks will have a better
return in the long run. But I feel better having the coins.