Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 00:10 - ID#270315)
Whoomp here it is Whoomp;

John B__A
(Wed Mar 04 1998 00:16 - ID#211105)
Good Vibes on European Gold Reserves

(Wed Mar 04 1998 00:19 - ID#401460)
Starr & GM

S.C. lawyer accuses Starr of obstruction of justice in GM case

GREENVILLE, S.C. ( AP ) - A lawyer has accused Kenneth Starr, the independent counsel investigating President Clinton, of concealing perjury when Starr defended General Motors in a lawsuit filed by families of people killed or injured in truck fires.

They are really trying to get Starr off their back.
This is one heck of a fight to the death. Can Clinton stall out the last three years of his presidency, without creating a constitutional crises?

Someone better start helping Starr or they are going to kill him in the press.


John B__A
(Wed Mar 04 1998 00:32 - ID#211105)
I'd like to help buy him a one-way ticket out of Washington D.C.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 00:32 - ID#28585)

Deflation bogeyman has been disseminated by Wall Street in order to convince investors that, if they don't like the stock market, they best put their monies in the bond market ( not Precious Metals ) . Naturally, in a deflationary scenario, interest rates fall, and bonds soar. Bottom Line: Wall Street is doing everything in its power to ensure
that PM's do not become a favored repository of American investors' funds. Skyrocketing values in PM's greatly undermine the financial status quo that favors the American-dominated global markets.

I warned many friends to avoid this Wall Street propagandistic fact, I went down on my knees with some of them and BEGGED THEM not to place any monies in bonds. I categorically predicted the current bearish scenario now unfolding in the bond market; it will only exacerbate as the TORRENT of newly printed money ( printed in the aftermath of the October crash in order to maintain liquidity ) begins to hammer bonds even further over the short-term..

As Milton Friedman said, deflation is a can easily be prevented by turning on the money printing presses and providing easy credit to world consumers ( exactly what Greenspan has done ) . In the space of several weeks, manufacturing overcapacity can transform itself into goods shortages. Moreover, in America -- no longer a manufactured goods economy but rather a service and information economy -- too many dollars chasing a fixed supply of services and information providers is the main threat...certainly there is no threat of service or information oversupply in America given the enormous wealth creation over the past decade leading to increased demand for such services and information.

In conclusion, I do not believe we will see either a pure deflation or a pure inflation...instead, it will be what some economists are describing as "NEO-STAGFLATION." What is that? Essentially, it is a stagflation that takes place in an economy at full employment rather than in an economy with high unemployment ( such as we saw in the Carter years ) . The net result: falling prices with rising interest rates. The interest rates rise in order to preclude foreign investment capital from exiting domestic markets ( imperative in order to maintain strength of U.S. dollar, stock, and bond markets ) . Prices fall because, initially, cheap manufactured goods flood into the country.

However, eventually, the new wealth effect translates into significantly increased demand for services, information, and vital commodities, ultimately leading to slingshot effect in these prices and a vicious circle necessitating even higher interest rates to stem sectoral hyperinflations.

Ultimate result: dollar, stock, and bond crash sends investors fleeing into skyrocketing PM's.

This analysis is sent to you on a brilliant cloud of heavenly insight from...FARFEL ( the Unpronounceable ) .

(Wed Mar 04 1998 00:40 - ID#393224)
HEAVY auraHITTER@ginseng&beer
Whatever that was last night, mate, send me a barrel full!! Worth its weight in gold. Cheers, Candelabra.

John Disney__A
(Wed Mar 04 1998 00:43 - ID#24135)
The case of the missing platinum
for Oris ...
Believe this confirms info I had ( from anglos source )
that Russian PLATINUM stockpile was depleted. Source
said They still had Palladium .. couldnt assess
extent of supply. Believe only danger to platinum price
rise is Japanese economy .. Overiding end use demand
is jewelery in Japan .. article cut from reference
from another kitcoite ..

"Reports Wednesday quoted Valery Goncharov, a senior
official at Russia's State Reserve for Precious Metals,
confirming a report by Standard Bank last week, that Russia's
stockpiles of platinum have been run down."

John Disney__A
(Wed Mar 04 1998 00:44 - ID#24135)
The case of the missing platinum
for Oris ...
Believe this confirms info I had ( from anglos source )
that Russian PLATINUM stockpile was depleted. Source
said They still had Palladium .. couldnt assess
extent of supply. Believe only danger to platinum price
rise is Japanese economy .. Overiding end use demand
is jewelery in Japan .. article cut from reference
from another kitcoite ..

"Reports Wednesday quoted Valery Goncharov, a senior
official at Russia's State Reserve for Precious Metals,
confirming a report by Standard Bank last week, that Russia's
stockpiles of platinum have been run down."

(Wed Mar 04 1998 00:46 - ID#401460)
John B__A (Starr)

Starr is not responsible for Clinton's actions, Clinton is responsible for his own actions and someone has to investigate him.

We keep forgetting who the accused is in this situation, it is not Starr. Clinton is the accused criminal under investigation- the President of the United States.

Oh well I guess it doesn't really matter if the leader of the free World is a potential criminal.

Heck, Let the Jerk stay in office.


(Wed Mar 04 1998 00:49 - ID#153102)
@HighRise Starr
This doesn't read political to me. Worse.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 00:52 - ID#28098)
This gets worse and worse {:-(((
FT, Thur Mar 4, 1998

Kosovo: Albanians gather to bury 24 shot by Serb police
By Guy Dinmore in Likosane, Serbia

Tens of thousands of ethnic Albanians, in an outpouring of opposition to
Serbian rule over the province of Kosovo, gathered yesterday to bury 24
villagers killed by police.

The new violence in Kosovo, the worst single outbreak since the second
world war, has raised the threat of a broader conflict in the southern Balkans and placed the government of Slobodan Milosevic, Yugoslav president, under threat of further international sanctions

Among the victims were 11 men who, according to survivors, were dragged
from their homes last Saturday, beaten, then shot in cold blood in retaliation for attacks by separatist rebels.

Earlier yesterday the Serbian authorities had released the bodies of 14 men - 10 of them from the same family - from the morgue in Pristina, capital of the province. On the way to the funeral, the simple cortge of a truck and a jeep was stopped at a police roadblock and diverted into a long detour over muddy tracks to its eventual destination.

Some 50,000 Albanians, mostly Moslems, sat patiently on a hilltop near the village of Likosane awaiting their arrival. The corpses of a woman and nine other men, draped in Albanian national flags, lay ready for burial as Islamic imams completed final ceremonies.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 01:02 - ID#335190)
Barings @ Warning Signs...&...No Passing The Buck.
March 3, 1998
UK government bans two former Barings directors

LONDON ( Reuters ) - British Trade and Industry Secretary Margaret Beckett Tuesday banned two former directors of Barings, the bank that collapsed in a welter of debt three years ago.

Ex-Chief Executive Peter Norris has been disqualified from acting as a company director for four years while former treasurer Tony Hawes is banned for five years, the Department of Trade and Industry ( DTI ) said in a statement.

Barings, which was Britain's oldest bank, went bust after it was discovered rogue trader Nick Leeson had racked up huge losses with unauthorized dealing in Singapore.

The bank was later bought by Dutch banking group ING, or Internationale Nederlanden Groep NV.

"This sends a clear message to business. Directors must take their responsibilities seriously -- there can be no passing the buck. This message should be pinned up in every boardroom," consumer affairs Minister Nigel Griffiths said.

The allegations against Norris included that he failed to ensure Leeson's activities were properly monitored or controlled despite his awareness of a number of warning signs, the DTI statement said. It said Norris did not dispute the allegations.

Hawes was accused of failing to ensure that the provision of massive amounts of funding to Leeson in Singapore was ever properly understood, controlled and reconciled in Barings' accounts.

FYI......Barings 1783.....1998---WAR ON DRUGS, EH!

DOPE INC., IDENTIFIES BARINGS AS FOLLOWS:"Barings Brothers, the premier merchant bank of opium trade from 1783 to the present day, also maintained close contact with the Boston families....The group's leading banker became, at the close of the 19th century, the House of Morgan-which also took its cut in the Eastern opium traffic....Morgan's Far Eastern operations were the officially conducted British opium traffic....Morgan's case deserves special scrutiny from American police and regulatory agencies, for the intimate associations of Morgan Guaranty Trust with the identified leadership of the British dope banks."

John Disney__A
(Wed Mar 04 1998 01:03 - ID#24135)
Some comments
For SDRer.. Harmony is BRILLIANT. They have outstanding
management. So does Anglos ... same applies DDeeps and
Rangold.. Albeit Kebble is a little too visionary for
my earthbound spirit. In comparison to these guys, Monk
is a prehistoric sub normal accountant better suited to
running a hardware store.
For Mozel .. disagree angelism ( ?? ) precondition
for mankind to make Governments unnecessary. They are
pointless anyway. I only want someone to pick the trash.
I dont even want a police force. If I need help, Ill
raise a posse. In a pinch, Ill handle the trash myself.
For Carl .. You didnt ask me but YES .. I see H&S
big time crossing neck line in under 3 weeks. Thanks
for site.. Interesting

(Wed Mar 04 1998 01:05 - ID#28098)
The far less threatening Blue Suits War...
Barry Riley: Europe's benchmark war

A curious European stock market index war is erupting just as 11
European Union member states appear to be moving peacefully towards monetary union in 10 months' time.

Some of the index launches may be linked to the requirement for
Europe-wide benchmarks as Continental institutions adjust to changes in national regulations and in their prudential currency-match
constraints. Others may reflect, rather, a hunt for unique products by national bourses that otherwise face extinction as Europe's capital markets become unified.

The ultimate prize for these indices would be recognition as leading
benchmarks for the integrated European market. Which pan-European index
will be quoted on the German, Dutch or British television news in, say, five years?

There are big commercial incentives, because whereas indices were once
distributed free by newspapers, banks or stock exchanges as promotional
tools, today they can be profitably sold as benchmarks for tracker funds or as the basis for futures and options contracts. Here I should point out the Financial Times's commercial interest through FTSE International and its links to Standard & Poor's in global indices.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 01:13 - ID#225273)
Shortsellr & CDE

I've been beating the drum for CDE the past week with little apparent interest. It didn't do well last year, even though silver rose, because of the performance of gold.
This is a new year, though. And with gold performing better, CDE should be a big winner.
Still, if we get a full blown bull market in gold and silver, I would imagine that SSC will outperform CDE just because of the leverage you get from a $1.25 stock.

The Preacher

(Wed Mar 04 1998 01:42 - ID#153102)
Governments are severely deficient in trash collection performance.
They can't even clean up their own messes much less tend to anyone else's. Nevertheless, "for the common defense and to establish justice" seem essential.

I noticed the price of an egg is up about 80% in Indonesia. IMHO the egg should precede the chicken for price comparison.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 01:51 - ID#153102)
The Daniel Webster quote was one I had not seen before. Thanks for posting it.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 01:53 - ID#255284)
I don't think we're in Kansas anymore.

Too much Ginseng!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 02:23 - ID#266105)
@somewhere, over the Rimbaud

Black A, White E, Red I, Green U, Blue O, vowels,
Arthur R.

Verlaine in waite ( Tom? ) , the alchemy of words.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 03:03 - ID#316193)
Taking Shots, And The Most Announced War We've Ever Had..

John Disney__A
(Wed Mar 04 1998 03:05 - ID#24135)
Illuminations and Drunken Boats
for 2bro2b
Words are great .. couldnt do much talking
without them. Verlaine and Rimbaud had a way
with them ...

(Wed Mar 04 1998 03:07 - ID#153102)
@JohnD Are all governments in the hands of sociopaths ?

(Wed Mar 04 1998 03:29 - ID#266105)
@off topic

Favorite bartender once at place called Holler Liquor
noticed March 4th was the only date completing a sentence
so held bartop races for betting and revelry with some
silly little wind-up dimestore men clomping down the bar.
Hilarious, mine went over the edge. Crab races can
be a jolly too, given a good emcee.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 04:41 - ID#248180)
Russia "may" issue Gold Certificates in 1998 Interfax News Agency-Todays News
 The Russian Ministry of Finance may issue gold certificates to finance advances to the gold extraction industry in the upcoming 1998 season. The draft document on the gold certificates program, prepared on the initiative of Unexim Bank, has been undergoing approval by the Central Bank for two weeks, an extended board meeting of the Union of Gold Prospecting Artels reported Monday. Gold industry officials do not expect approval of the gold certificate measure to come until after the 1998 budget is passed. The certificates would be backed by gold. Preliminarily they would be denominated in one kilogram of gold. The certificates would be issued in several tranches in March-April with maturities in August-December. The state would issue the certificates to the gold extracting organizations, who could then sell them through operators on the secondary market.

I guess GOLD is still very PRECIOUS!!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 04:51 - ID#419147)
Dont believe everything newspapers write, they also preach new paradigm for example..

1. Past 30 000 scientists on biological warfare is an extravagation there were not that many STUDENTS of biology. And the biologists also worked on effects of chemical, nuclear etc weapons. ( Besides SOME worked also at peaceful projects in medicine, agriculture and so on as well. )

2. Newspaper correspondents DO NOT generally interview high level defectors, if they do they dont reveal their real names, if they do they do it is engineered by the government. what purpose...

3. Do you really believe US really terminated it's bioweapon programmes in 1969??

4. Logical mistake..the US is 'only' searching for vaccines, cure, protection from biological weapons. You can't do that withoug knowing the subject throughly ( origin, impact, mechanism.. ) eg. not being able to make them.

5. The fellow was born in Alma-Ata?..educated there?..he was of ethnic minorities of Soviet Union?..and became the leading scientist in a really tough field of research?..even big boss there? WELL..theoretically possible but not very likely.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 05:25 - ID#266105)
@sallie get'cher fannie

Reading an article here in yesterday's Wall Street Journal
on new records set in issuance of federal agency debt. $5.7T last
year, 'the lion's share in short-term debt.', 27.3% increase over
last year ( $4.5T ) according to the Bond Market Association.

'As recently as 1990, federal agency debt issuance was $637B.'

Ought-ought, that works out to an 894% increase in issuance
of federal agency debt in seven years.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 05:34 - ID#248180)
@ Sell the Gold Story & Currency Conspiracy on the DRUDGE REPORT
Half of the world population is reading the "Drudge Report" for regular information regarding Slick Willies PeckerGate Conspiracy, including other press and TV media reportes. Why don't the more articulate, talented and informed posters on this site start flooding Matt Drudge with the valuable information posted on this site daily. The juicy bits about the BIS, IMF and currency crisis opinions here are excellent opinions.

The Drudge Report has a facility whereby one can post a story.

Hell who needs facts in the Media - just make the story good.

Farfel: "Change the Perception" was once your cry, If not I stand corrected.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 06:15 - ID#317193)
What's the reason for the spike???

(Wed Mar 04 1998 06:36 - ID#284255)
Great idea - send "Matt the Drudge" the gossip.
Drudge has been in our local newspaper twice in the last two months.
And this is in Cairns, Australia with a population of approx 120k.

I guess this guy is being talked about worldwide.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 06:37 - ID#26793)
Yes, I expect deflation but you should not assume that I am also a bond bull. Far from it. I am a bond bear. Bondholders can not expect a repeat of 1929. The difference is the dollar and its current lack of gold backing.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 06:40 - ID#26793)
@Junior, Sharefin
When the Comex numbers were dropping and there was a scandal about missing inventory with one certified warehouse disqualified I sent the information to Matt Drudge. He ignored it.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 06:45 - ID#238295)
Farfel: Another excellent post. Deflation can akways be prevnted if the powers that be are determined to do it at all costs as Milton Friedman suggests.

Gold now flat after being off $2 earlier this evening despite strong greenback. Looks like another run at $300 may develop shortly.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 06:47 - ID#26793)
Brazil to cut interest rates. Currency no longer requires defense.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 06:47 - ID#39845)
When security of Asia is threatened for long time, hold gold for insurance.
Wednesday 4 March, 1998 ( 9:01pm AEDT )

Australia's Foreign Minister, Alexander Downer, says
stability and security in East Asia will be at risk for the next
two to three years.

Mr Downer told a regional security dialogue in Sydney that
it would take up to three years to overcome the economic

Speaking to a conference diplomats and defence officials
from 20 Asia-Pacific countries, Mr Downer said the crisis
would test regional solidarity.

Mr Downer said the four year old security talks - the
ASEAN Regional Forum - would have more time to
develop because military spending in Asia would drop.

He said the Forum could deal with regional tensions by
reducing misunderstandings and getting more openness in
defence policies.

Return to the World News Menu

plus from the Asia Pacific Region in Indonesian, Chinese and Tok Pisin

 1998 Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Wed Mar 4 21:30:00 1998 ( AEDT )

AEDT = Australian Eastern Daylight Time which is 11 hours ahead of UTC ( Greenwich Mean Time )

(Wed Mar 04 1998 06:49 - ID#341189)
Old Gold
Where are you getting your gold quote?

(Wed Mar 04 1998 06:50 - ID#284255)
What does Matt like?
He obviously has preferences.
Sex, scandals, and politics.

Your mailbox is overflowing.
No room for an aproaching seagull to land.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 06:51 - ID#26793)
Fuji Bank to fire 850, close 38 branches

(Wed Mar 04 1998 06:56 - ID#26793)
Daiwa Bank goes on public welfare, will cut salaries...DEFLATION

(Wed Mar 04 1998 06:57 - ID#393224)

(Wed Mar 04 1998 06:59 - ID#26793)
Japanese buy safes, yank cash from banks...DEFLATION

(Wed Mar 04 1998 07:02 - ID#26793)
Russian platinum and palladium news

(Wed Mar 04 1998 07:02 - ID#238295)
gold quotes
Carl: Gold, silver, dollar index and much more at:

(Wed Mar 04 1998 07:03 - ID#289357)
COMEX breakdown 3/3


350,603 Registered

130,307 Elligible

480,910 Total No Change ( This is beginning to look suspicious - no change in ANY of the COMEX warehouse reports for last 3 days )


36,531,320 Registered

53,207,778 Elligible

89,739,098 Total Net Change + 281,233

(Wed Mar 04 1998 07:06 - ID#26793)
Malasia banks; "when this type of news comes out there is sure to be a panic"

(Wed Mar 04 1998 07:10 - ID#341189)
Old Gold, Nick
Thanks a ton. Old Gold, I didn't know about that site.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 07:14 - ID#26793)
Bank of Tokyo to close 40 branches, reduce force by 1500

(Wed Mar 04 1998 07:23 - ID#328159)
$50,000 an ounce?
"I'm not a big believer in financial cycles but if you are, then you can
give some thought to the eighteen-year supercycle. Three six-year cycles
that were skipped equals eighteen years and 1998 is the year. If the
supercycle proved out, you would expect the gold price to go up
dramatically to make up for the missed six-year cycles. If it went up at
the same rate of appreciation as in the prior six-year cycles, gold
would sell for $50,000 an ounce."

(Wed Mar 04 1998 07:29 - ID#36965)
Wet Gold and Joke of the Day
Wet Gold, I don't know anything about Delaware laws. The general rule is that you cannot put money away and defraud a creditor. If you owe money you can put the money in an offshore trust of which I am suspicious or with an Alaskan or Delaware Irrevocable Trust. I know nothing about the Delaware Trust. If you just want an entity for your family which will preserve your assets outside of the entity I would sugest a limited liability company or a limited liability partnership. These entities are taxed like a partnership or sole proprietorship but provide the protection of a corporation. I am only familiary with the NM LLC but each of the states except one ( may all now ) have LLCs and they are rpetty decent entities with which to work.

Here's the joke of the day. The mafia was looking for a new man to make weekly collections from all the private businesses that they were 'protecting'.

Feeling the heat from the police force, they decided to use a deaf
person for this job--if he were to get caught, he wouldn't be able to
communicate to the police what he was doing.

Well, on his first week, the deaf collector picks up over $50,000. He
gets greedy, decides to keep the money and stashes it in a safe place.

The mafia soon realizes that their collection is late, and sends
some of their hoods after the deaf collector. The hoods find the
deaf collector and ask him where the money is. The deaf collector
can't communicate with them, so the mafia drags the guy to an interpreter. The mafia hood says to the interpreter, "Ask him where da money is."

The interpreter signs, "Where's the money?"

The deaf replies, "I don't know what you're talking about." The
interpreter tells the hood, "He says he doesn't know what you're

The hood pulls out a .38 gun and places it in the ear of the deaf
collector. "NOW ask him where da money is."

The interpreter signs, "Where is the money?"

The deaf man replies, "The $50,000 is in Central Park, hidden
in the third tree stump on the left from the West 78th Street gate ."

The interpreter says to the hood, "He says he still doesn't know
what you're talking about, and doesn't think you have the guts to
pull the trigger."

(Wed Mar 04 1998 07:31 - ID#238295)
Gold backed Asian Currency Very Bullish for POG

(Wed Mar 04 1998 07:50 - ID#258427)
Gold and Silver spot???
Kitco is "stuck" again at 03:43....anybody got current quote??


(Wed Mar 04 1998 07:57 - ID#20748)
Old Gold
Your 07:02. url did not work for me. Can you please check and repost. Thanks.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 08:13 - ID#183109)
maybe a little WD-40?

BillD, I'm also having the usual kitco sticking problem. If you check this kitco link, it appears the 24 hour graph is still updating. Gold was down, now bouncing back. Anyone else getting sea sick? : )

(Wed Mar 04 1998 08:23 - ID#238422)
John Disney
John, see Donald's post at 7:02. The same guy
in Russia ( Goncharov? ) tells different story.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 08:26 - ID#289382)

(Wed Mar 04 1998 08:27 - ID#411233)

(Wed Mar 04 1998 08:32 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Might be just a tad early, but I would now be VERY cautious of S&P and such. Very possible that they are ready to take a 'hit'.
Also looks like gold may be ready to resume an upward bias.
Would also now be carefully eyeing crude, heating oil, hogs, and even potentially test the grains.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 08:34 - ID#341189)
NJ, re Old Gold's quote URL
Go to full test mode to get the whole URL before clicking on it. I had the same trouble, but it's correct.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 08:38 - ID#341189)
correct spelling
"full text" not full test

(Wed Mar 04 1998 08:43 - ID#358318)
DRUDGE report exposure bid
Suggestion: Drudge seems to be mainly interested in XXXXgate. Send
stories that link XXXXgate and gold. For instance the following
( hypothetical, by way of example only! ) :

7000 tonnes of gold is being "offered for sale" in an obscure private market. Some suspect the seller is acting for one of the Federal Reserve banks with a branch- of all places- in Little Rock, Arkansas. Is this gold coming from the US's 8000 tonne gold reserve? Is it part of a plan to announce, when the crunch comes and gold looks like shooting up and killing the DOW and cheap oil, that the US central bank has disposed of 7000 tonnes of gold, leaving a nice round 1000 tonnes of the "poorly perfoming" asset?

Another example: Japan's Mr. Yen, Eisuke Sakakibara, recently came under
fire of "influence allegations". Analysts were puzzled, because the alleged wrongdoing was questioned after seven years delay- 'It smells a little funny and suggests there may be a larger agenda' said one financial expert, according to Reuters. "Mr. Yen" recently made statements in support of ASEAN countries using local currencies instead of the US$, and in support of Indonesia's currency board. This could
diminish the US$'s role in international trade, lead to selling of
dollars, weaken the dollar, increase bond yields, crash the DOW, increase US inflation and cause the price of gold to skyrocket. Could the 'labour leader' who raised the matter in the Japanese parliament have connections to the "almighty dollar"?

But I think that there needs to be harder evidence to support our stories before the Drudge report will take notice.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 08:47 - ID#258427)
Hey Stadler...How you do dat??? That Kitco
url is updated...strange~~~~~~~~~~~thanks ... will bookmark it

(Wed Mar 04 1998 08:48 - ID#20748)
Still no luck Who's the server? Can you please retype correct url for me. Thanks.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 08:54 - ID#258427)
ALLL...I sure find it strange ... the kitco frames
version prices are stuck at 03:43 ... but the url that stadler posted about 5 - 10 minutes ago is the same display ( Kitco frames prices ) and it is updated, silver is up to6.38 and gold at 297 or so...Go Gold, Go silver and SSC

(Wed Mar 04 1998 09:01 - ID#410194)
Gold and Silver news
Looks like some dealers around the world have turned a bit bearish again in Gold and some of them expect it to move back down to the 291 - 295 area for now. Several parts of the world have failed ( once again ) to show the type of reaction that would have helped Gold to continue higher and to at least re-test its January highs. Was it too much to ask for? It looks so.

Silver has become extremely quiet and many speculators have decided to stay out of the market after losing a lot of money trying to trade the long side of it since the Buffet announcement! ( They faild to realize that the Bull in Silver was already quite old by the time the Buffet news made headlines, proving once again that the "herd mentality" is rarely able to make profits! ) Despite some extremely low inventory figures, there is this "background bearishness" that started to surface again this week in the precious metals and for now, maybe even Silver won't be able to escape this perception. The daily Comex figures are still to watch though...

(Wed Mar 04 1998 09:18 - ID#228100)
Drudge Report
Matt Drudge is only interested in using the media to make money. ( Can't blame him for that! ) He knows that he can't sell a story about financial scams to people that don't understand the difference between stock and bonds, and absolutely nothing about the price of gold or the FRB. Most people in the USA can't tell you the current price of gold within $100/ounce, or the DJIA with 1000 points.

However, details about Clinton and young Monica's sexual encounters in the Oval Office will get MILLIONS to check the Drudge Report, CNN, and other sources for for the latest developments. Unfortunately, only these "sensational" stories sell to the public.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 09:22 - ID#197307)
Nick and Carl,
I'm sure you probably know this but just in case,you can get
that kitco graph by clicking on the small graph to the left.
although it seems to load faster with the direct url,the
case for Gold looks good to me,although I expect selling
on any rally's with futures options coming up,but
most will roll forward,then more buying. ( me thinks )

Steve in TO__A
(Wed Mar 04 1998 09:30 - ID#287337)
Matt Drudge is styling himself as a gossip columnist in the tradition of oldies like Walter Winchell.

He's interested in Hollywood gossip, and political scandal. He's also interested in the various US gov't corruptions on a personal basis, I think. You'll see if you look at his sheet, or subscribe via e-mail.

Silver gossip just doesn't have the same mass-market appeal as Hollywood and political gossip. Just compare the circulations of The National Enquirer and Time magazine with Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities and you'll get an idea of the relative interest the three topics hold for the public : )


(Wed Mar 04 1998 09:34 - ID#255190)
Check oout Mozel's 03:07 this morning
With a few grains of salt it still looks pretty bad. Reminds me of Revelation 6:7-8 the word "death" is best translated 'pestilence' or 'deadly disease'.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 09:37 - ID#419147)
gold prices
There seemes to be a major contradiction in the arguments people use talking about gold price.

On one hand gold is 'the only true money' and therefore the demand and it's price should rise.

On the other hand gold is a needed commodity, demand is bypassing supply, majority of producers are in red and therefore it's price should raise.

The third party stresses on stability of prices in gold ( classcal: 1 troz oz Au = 1 tailor made suit. However....

Modern chemical processing allows to extract gold from very low grade ores, which seem to be plentyful. So I suppose I am not very wrong when I claim the following:

1. provided the costs of production licences, processing plants, chemicals and labour remains constant a gold price above 500$/Oz will guarantee practically limitless supply, therefore temporary fluctuations above that level can only be caused by short squeeze.

2. if the production costs go up ( due to all this money printing ) the capital 'gains' vanish since all prices raise ( including the price of suites ) .

So I quite don't believe in theories of geting wealthy overnight via PM speculations. Preserving wealth yes, gaining wealth noway. Unless I by gold with borrowed dollars and pay off the debt in dollars also after crach. Which raises a question..when will it occur?..any1 know the date??


(Wed Mar 04 1998 09:40 - ID#255190)
As far as gold and silver ..
I'm still feeling pretty good about this as base building. Gold 295 to 300 range. Silver 6.20 to 6.40 range. Quiet and watchful. There are buyers waiting for the sellers if things go lower. Each month's movement toward depletions of eligible metal in the warehouses. I can aford to wait for my excitement ( 3 to 5 year POV ) .

(Wed Mar 04 1998 09:43 - ID#374294)
Gerbernex - know the date?? Sometime in the next 667 days...
I think market disruptions are going to be quite severe due to panic and liquidity problems because of computer malfunctions from the computer crisis that is fast approaching. Search "y2k" in any engine - and start reading! Good luck.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 09:46 - ID#374294)
A reference article about the 667 day prediction...

(Wed Mar 04 1998 09:47 - ID#341206)
central bank refusing to renew a gold lease on a million ounces of gold
does any one have any information on this subjest? like which central bank and who had the lease. please e-mail me with anything you have at Thanks a bunch!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 09:50 - ID#255190)
Good points. There are alot of dollars NOT in gold or silver right now. Even a minor commitment by money to be in Ag/Au would propel the price beyond orbit ( production costs @ $500 ) . Once there is sustained upward movement ( momentum players looking for this ) and other things turn sour ( not necessary for a crash to happen just instability/uncertainty ) then the price will not be determined ( IMHO ) by availability ( which is not unlimited BTW, but limited by refining capacity like oil products ) . The price will be determined by the number of dollars which are chasing the Ag/Au market. A steady rise over a few years time culminating in a blow off similar to 1980 ( ? one wonders ) .

As to when the crash might occure in equities and ( bonds ? ) throw a dart at a calender. Probably get pretty close +/- 182.62 days!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 09:56 - ID#340459)
We have lousy luck everyday...
King Tut got himself buried with Gold, Did he see an up market 5000+ years later. I wonder which wave theory he banked on..

(Wed Mar 04 1998 10:00 - ID#316193)
Stockholders of Meridian Gold Get Some Great News...

(Wed Mar 04 1998 10:03 - ID#228100)
I agree EXACTLY with your 180 day forecast for a few other specific reasons:
- Historically, October seems to be a month for "corrections".
- Typically, the POG goes up for six months ( March thru September, then goes down for six months. )
- A few real Y2K issues will begin. FY 1999 begins for the federal government, and their financial systems will encounter the first real "problems". These initial problems should be relatively minor, and won't shut everything down. But they will be a "wake-up call" for the entire financial community.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 10:03 - ID#340459)
What are the lease rates Today ? The long bond yields are coming down..

(Wed Mar 04 1998 10:04 - ID#286230)
Gebernax: I think you have overlooked an important point. Gold will rise when lots of "little" people want to buy it. When gold peaked around $850 it was being bought by ordinary folks in small amounts. Very little gold actually sold in the 700-800 area. So while we are considering price per oz, mine closings, CB conspiracies I think we will actually see another spike when the "little" guy gets convinced that it is a good quick way to make a buck. Just happened in the silver market. Little guys buying Canadian juniors that used to produced or were about to produce or might produce --after Buffett had revealed he had already bought his stuff. You can see the volume rising on such stocks across the board at that time.

Anyway I think focusing on the metal leaves out the buyers and its the buyers who will raise the price.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 10:09 - ID#348127)

Would somebody please say something positive about AU. I am growing severely depressed and am in need of support. I will be attending my GBA meeting tonight. ( GOLD BUGS ANNONYMOUS )

(Wed Mar 04 1998 10:15 - ID#20748)
Old Gold/ Carl
Still looking for that url, but this is what shows up on my screen.

404 Not Found

The requested URL was not found on this server:


( d:\www\users\swm\mrci\qpnight )

Please return to the referring document and note the hypertext link that led you here.

Need some help.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 10:23 - ID#197307)
Year 2000,
Hope your not using Allens 182.67 ( throw a dart at the calender )
number to back up you theory's,I'm pretty sure he was saying
your guess is as good as mine,although I'm not sure his
throw a dart theory can hold up to mathmatic probabilites?
natuaraly this is on the lite side,have fun.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 10:24 - ID#183109)
seems extreme...but so does GOLD under $300
'Asian turmoil may run for 15 years'

SYDNEY - Asia could face up to 15 years of political turmoil unless the IMF develops measures to cope with the region's currency crisis, former conservative opposition leader and economic professor John Hewson.

He told a conference on the regional crisis that the IMF had been caught unprepared for such a widespread economic meltdown and was still not ready to cope with its consequences.

One of the IMF's main focuses in solving the crisis should be to unbundle the "incestuous" relationships between Asian governments, businesses and banks, Hewson said.

"The management of the economic and political and social circumstances of these countries is phenomenally important and it's precisely there where I don't think the IMF is adequately prepared or even has started to think through the extent to which they and other institutions may have to play a role in this process," he said.

"I don't think we have the institutional structures that will be necessary to handle this over the next 10 or 15 years.

"The problem is if you get the economics wrong you get an identifiable short-term impact on people's livelihoods."

"If you compound that by getting the social policies wrong and the political ones wrong you could have very significant problems."


(Wed Mar 04 1998 10:26 - ID#222231)
I predict gold will reach $10,000/oz. Do'nt ask me when. And besides, noone listens to me anyhow. Keep the faith, and when your ready to jump, call me and I'll keep you company.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 10:34 - ID#287280)
The following statement was made during the briefing:
Pakistan's participation in the OIC Summit Tehran:

The Eighth Islamic Summit held in Tehran last week was a momentous and an historic event.

17. Faced with the challenges of globalization and economic liberalization, the Islamic Summit considered a series of measures aimed at promoting collective economic development of the Islamic community. The OIC is in the process of conducting serious studies about the impact of economic groupings creating supportive mechanisms and institutions to promote inter-Islamic investment and trade. A proposal for the creation of an Islamic Common Market was approved and the role of the Islamic Development Bank would be further strengthened.

19. The Prime Minister's arrival in Tehran was keenly awaited by diplomats and media against the backdrop of his triumphant steering of Pakistan through the recent constitutional crisis. Many heads of states and government expressed satisfaction at the resolution of the crisis and the restoration of stability in Pakistan. The Prime Minister availed of his presence in Tehran TO MEET WITH THE IRANIAN LEADERSHIP THE RAHBAR, GRAND AYATOULLAH SYED ALI KHAMENEI, PRESIDENT SEYYED MOHAMMAD KHATEMI. HE ALSO MET WITH THE LEADERS OF THE DELEGATIONS OF BANGLADESH, TURKEY, TAJIKISTAN, MALDIVES, EGYPT, NIGER, COMOROS, GAMBIA, Malaysia, Senegal, AZERBAIJAN, SAUDI ARABIA, Jordan, Sudan and Palestine.

20. The successful holding of the Summit in Tehran signifies a new era of reconciliation and rapprochement within the Islamic countries. The global transformation in the wake of the post Cold War adjustments have prompted the Muslim countries to conduct a sweeping review of their role in international politics and GLOBAL ECONOMY. The Tehran Summit provided an excellent opportunity for exchange of views on the issues which are likely to affect the lives of many generations.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 10:38 - ID#298259)
URL you want

(Wed Mar 04 1998 10:43 - ID#183109)
a Billion here, a Billion there, pretty soon we're taking real money.....
Ex-Yamaichi execs arrested

Three former officials are suspected of hiding huge off-the-book losses

In announcing the arrests, the prosecutors said the three had acknowledged in questioning that they were involved in the scheme to hide losses of about 260 billion yen ( $2.08 billion ) in the business year ended March 31, 1997.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 10:48 - ID#287280)
Reminiscent of Someone we know?-- "Heaven with these stars"-

"The intellect is a ship, passion a whirlpool, and knowledge the mast,
God is the shore and the whole cosmos the sea.
The shore is reached with certainty; the sea of the possible has become
the necessary....[The later Muslim authors following Ibn Sina divide
reality into the Necessary Being ( wajib al-wujud ) , the possible being
( mumkin al-wujud ) and the being that is impossible ( mumtani` al-wujud ) ]
How good it would be if the sages before us had said everything completely,So that the opposition of those who are not complete would be removed [All arguments begin because each side considers only one aspect of the Truth. But those who are "complete", that is, have a vision of the totality of the Truth, never enter into arguments]."

(Wed Mar 04 1998 10:53 - ID#340459)
@SDRer, Do you agree that the Sufi's never sought material success
Fortune is more a work of fate than intellect..IMHO

(Wed Mar 04 1998 11:11 - ID#340459)
Khaleej Times today
Gulf gold demand surges 21 per cent

By a staff reporter

GOLD demand broke all records last year in the Gulf with the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar posting a
21 per cent growth, marking the third year of uninterrupted growth.

According to the World Gold Council ( WGC ) , in the UAE, the largest centre for gold consumption in the Gulf,
demand continued to build on the strong progress made throughout 1996.

"The record full-year demand in the Emirates can be attributed in part to the success of the Dubai Shopping
Festival and the "City of Gold" promotion," said RoIf Schneebeli, chief executive of World Gold Council, Middle
East and Indian subcontinent.

He said after a strong fourth quarter, the full-year demand worldwide reached a record 2,935 tonnes, nine per cent
above the previous year. Fourth quarter world demand rose five per cent to 754 tonnes, the highest on record for
the period.

"The key to this record-breaking performance was that demand in India, the Middle East and northern Asia was
so strong that it more than offset weakness in some countries in eastern Asia. As always, jewellery demand was
the cornerstone, rising eight per cent in the full year. Demand for investment is smaller than for jewellery, but the
revival in bar and coin demand that occurred last year also played an important role. Investment demand gained
19 per cent," he said in a Press release.

In the developing world, aggregate demand moved above 2,000 tonnes for the first time ever, climbing 13 per
cent. "There was robust growth throughout India, the Middle East, North Asia and Latin America, and this more
than compensated for weakness in some countries in eastern Asia."

He said India strengthened its position as the largest consumer of gold in the world last year. Gold demand in
India set new records at 45 per last year. Demand in Egypt and Pakistan was also strong at 100 tonnes in each
country. Lower gold prices and moves to liberalise the gold trade in these two important markets both

Demand in Saudi Arabia rose eight per cent last year. It was exceptionally strong in the fourth quarter, rising 21
per cent. Turkey also had a strong year, with demand rising 32 per cent to a record. Trade reports indicate that
tourist demand for jewellery in Turkey may have been as high as 65 tonnes.

The lower US dollar gold price helped the tourist demand, while the sharply higher price in Turkish lire was
clearly no deterrent to domestic buying.

"This trend is universal barring the few markets affected by the currency crisis in South East Asia, demand for
gold has risen," added Schneebeli.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 11:24 - ID#286230)
Solvent Mouse squeeks at Elephant

(Wed Mar 04 1998 11:25 - ID#287280)
Midas, is not "material success" a
very modern, very western and ultimately, a very empty

(Wed Mar 04 1998 11:28 - ID#342282)
Preacher et al re Claimstaker
After some preliminary research on this co. The website is and the broker is Monty Sutton @ 888 821 2233. You can reach the co. @ 888 236 5200. Have not got with geologist, but so far it looks worth pursuing. When I can report better on grade and reserves I'll do it. No bad indications so far. Let me know before you load up so I can get in too!!!!

The Analyst
(Wed Mar 04 1998 11:30 - ID#293343)
Gold will reach 10,000 / oz (eventually)
Assuming the supply of gold is finite, the total wealth in the
world will continue to increase without limit, and people will
want a minimum percentage of their wealth in gold, the conclusion
must be that there is no limit to what the price of gold will
hit. If I knew how much gold exists I could be more concrete.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 11:31 - ID#348127)

Thanks Pete-
Every time I start working on my 12th step, I find myself buying more MAPLES - Maybe next time I will come here and talk it over.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 11:33 - ID#187218)
tolerant1,,,, where U bean,,,, I miss U'r posts,,,,,,

Bully Beef
(Wed Mar 04 1998 11:36 - ID#259261)
Golden Rule:Them what has the gold makes the rules.
Who has the gold? Who makes the rules?

(Wed Mar 04 1998 11:36 - ID#22956)'s all a myth.....ya know, gold is not real...
this according to a genius CB'er...... ( hmmm ) .
"Gold has been trading on either side of $300 for the best part of
a month now and needs a decisive breakout to create more interest,
though comments by the Portuguese central bank governor added a
bearish note today," said John Tyree, a broker with FIMAT in New

Portuguese central bank governor Antonio de Sousa said on Tuesday
gold value's was now largely "mythical" and other financial
instruments offered greater returns.

De Sousa told the European Parliament's subcommittee on monetary
affairs that Portugal still held gold reserves but these were
outweighed by its holdings of bonds.

He also confirmed Portugal would transfer around one billion
dollars of its reserves to the future European Central Bank. This
represented five percent of the country's total reserves.

He did not put a figure on how much would be transferred in gold.
Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock, the central banker ran up the clock..... watch the clock strike....something

when the walls come tumbling down...the walls....come tumbling, tumbling! ( john cougar )

(Wed Mar 04 1998 11:40 - ID#338289)
All: Governments and Utility Y2K Failure Warnings
All: Here is some interesting reading on the subject of utility failures ( power grid ) and other government services. Looks like this subject is finally going to hit the fan this year, about 3 years too late. Get your physical silver and gold while it's cheap.

Bully Beef
(Wed Mar 04 1998 11:49 - ID#259261)
Read my lips... Gold doesn't represent wealth anymore.
Think of it as a very expensive superconductor of limited quantity. Think of it as wires in the high tech industry. What industrial uses does it have? Intrinsic value as we knew it is no longer applicable. Pork bellies have intrinsic value. We eat them. Corn futures have intrinsic value.Gold just sits there and does nothing. Stop worshipping gold and have a BLT with mayo. See you at the deli.
THIS HAS BEEN A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT....P.S I'm still in gold for the long haul. Damn the fact I'm missing those still great returns in the market.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 11:56 - ID#187218)
I again state my Y2K prediction: "There will be a death attributed to Y2K in 1998",,,

(Wed Mar 04 1998 11:56 - ID#340459)
I guess we are the crossroads now, The Dow may continue to fall all this week, in this scenario any
of these things may push POG up.

** A 150+ point sudden drop in Dow may propel gold upwards immediately
** US Dollar weakening agst Yen/DM/SwFr
** Gold lease rates stay consistently above present levels
** OPEC's agreement or Oil recovering from new low's
** US presidency problems escalating

IMHO.. I hope..

(Wed Mar 04 1998 11:57 - ID#187218)
OR,,, shall I say,,,,, at least TRY to attribute one,,,,,,,

Lurker 777
(Wed Mar 04 1998 11:57 - ID#317247)
2% gold backing for EU currency?
Gold, which had staged a modest recovery from 28-year lows reached in early January, fell after Bank of Portugal governor Antonio de Sousa said gold's long history as a valuable investment -- it's ``mythical quality'' -- was no longer a reason for keeping it as a government asset.
In remarks to the European Union's monetary subcommittee, he also called it ``much more rigid than a treasury bond.'' And he said Portugal would move $1 billion worth of reserves -- $20 million in gold reserves -- to the European Central Bank, which will be created with the EU's launch early next year of the single euro currency.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:00 - ID#269409)

Wednesday March 4, 11:35 am Eastern Time

Small risk Asia will ignite world crisis-Greenspan

WASHINGTON, March 4 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday the chances were slim
that Asia's financial crisis would lead to a major global crisis, but the threat could not be discounted.

``Although the probability of an adverse event is relatively small, if it happens the consequences are so large that we want to
make certain to insure ourselves,'' Greenspan told the House Budget Committee.

Greenspan urged lawmakers to approve funding for the International Monetary Fund, saying that if, indeed, the Asia crisis
were to erupt into something ``far more virulent,'' the money would be crucial to helping to stem the fallout.

Greenspan said that the probability of the Asia crisis having a strongly negative effect on the U.S. economy was
considerably smaller than 50 percent, but greater than zero.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:05 - ID#269409)
Gold price prediction ....
The chance of an explosive up move in Gold, occurring in 1998, is less than 50% but greater than 0.

This brilliant analysis, inspired by the wisdom of AG...

Bully Beef
(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:06 - ID#259261)
Macbeth...Macbeth...beware the Ides of March
Great.Greenspam gives us a muted 50/50 on the Asia crisis.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:08 - ID#410194)
Oh, oh....the latest about Gold.
If you are caught up with Gold emotionally, please skip!

Talks are travelling around the world again today about the reduced need of Gold in the EMU. The emphasis among various participants still seems to be how and when to sell Gold... and lots of it.

We better face the truth: this is likely to be a huge problem for Gold and for a very very very long time, particularly in a low inflation environment.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:13 - ID#269409)
@ Midas
To be contrarian to each point, let me breifly say in response to each of your potential POG + ponts;

** A 150+ point sudden drop in Dow may propel gold upwards immediately

Not likely to happen since GOLD has not responded with up moves recently during DOW corrections.

** US Dollar weakening agst Yen/DM/SwFr

Not likely with Japan's problems, and disunity among the EU re Euro policy

** Gold lease rates stay consistently above present levels

Maybe, though silver seems to have decoupled from this indicator if the fall from the $7+ level is a guide.

** OPEC's agreement or Oil recovering from new low's

The glut's going to get even worse with the new happy Saddam agreements

** US presidency problems escalating

the prez is bulletproof because no one cares. If it comes out he's a murdering, pedohiliac molester, who conspired with hundreds of DNC cronies, he'll still get off scoit free. The media and the public have spoken....

Bully Beef
(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:15 - ID#259261)
Realistic..."Man cannot stand too much reality."
If you won't turn a blind eye to the apparently obvious... get off this page. Misery enjoys company. I need a gold miracle and I'm getting poor waiting.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:17 - ID#358318)
LGB: Goldspan
Greenspan's ( considerably ) less than 50% and greater than zero, can be related to the golden rule of thumb for estimating ( as used in project planning ) . Think of the largest conceivable number that the quantity to be estimated could be----- 50%. Think of the smallest conceivable number that the quantity to be estimated could be------ 0%. To obtain the best estimate, take the mean----- 25%. Therefore, I deduce that Greenspan is saying there's a 1 in 4 chance.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:18 - ID#410198)
Bullybeef,your problem with gold it's not an investment no was never will be it's insurance KISS

jim c
(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:24 - ID#69280)
(mapleman)(words of encouragement)
"A man who works for the Gold in the job rather than the money in the pay envelope, is the person who gets on". Joseph French Johnson

"A mask of Gold hides all deformities". - Thomas Dekker

"It is better to have your Gold in the hand than in the heart" T. Fuller

Be patient, we will be rewarded. This is a Golden Opportunity.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:28 - ID#153102)
@Realistic @Parallels
@Realistic Central Banks carry gold on their books at very low values.
If all of it were offered to market, would that drive the POG below $77 ? If not, then why isn't it being mobilized into T Bills on a wholesale basis ? Why was Argentina the only smart Central Bank ? ( Canada and Australia don't count because they apparently think in those places that gold in the ground is equivalent to gold in the bank. )

@Parallels Corporations, Limited Liability Parnerships, and the like are the moral equivalent of competitive currency devaluation. The one aims to compete on the basis of lowering the cost of moral responsibility and the other on the basis of lowering the exchange cost for exports. Both are government products.

Modern government has become the enemy, not the protector, of the good and truthful man and the wrecker of societies.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:30 - ID#57232)
Seeing the future dimly - Biological warfare accidents vs natural events.
mozel: Your 3:07 was interesting. I do not know if the statements are true, or disinformation given to the journalist in question. However, I have worked in Government research labs, and know a little about how the military-defense institution works. The basic idea is that 'the other side is developing x, so we must develop it too'. No consideration is given to the long term consequences, as there is a real fear that 'the other side will get it first, and use it against you'. So -- one develops strains like the Marburg virus variants, or multi-drug resistant plague.

In a wartime scenario, the device -- whatever it is -- may be deployed, even if there are no countermeasures -- as 'these can be developed later'. In the case of nuclear weapons, we know there are no real countermeasures, but they were deployed anyway. With biological warfare, we can only hope that these devices ( whatever they are ) are not actually deployed -- as there may be no practical 'antidote' even if you knew what is coming -- the ultimate in MADD. My guess is that the 'Marburg' virus variant -- if it does exists -- ( Ebola and Hanta do ) -- is not actually deployed, because there is no antidote -- for anyone.

After all that, I think the greatest peacetime danger of an infectious disease disaster will be from our environment, not from an American or Russian bioweapons research lab. Mother nature does molecular biology at a scale that makes our lab efforts look puny. And the source of contamination is the whole world.

So -- my guess is that Saddam does not have anything deadly such as the Marburg variant -- which could spread all over the world -- because there is no antidote -- unless he stole it. But we are at risk for a plague of some kind, due to the natural cycles of the weather such as El Nino which disrupt the ecosytem, and encourage growth of organisms which have not mutated to coexist with us. We now have a new strain of TB somewhere in Tennessee which is 1000x more rapidly growing than the standard strain, we have the Hanta virus hiding in NewMexico, and we have a boatload of organisms which are resistant to antibiotics ( MDR ) . One problem with MDR is that plasmid types of MDR can be transmitted from one time of microbacterium to another -- so all we need is one type of MDR where none our antibiotics work.

Thank God we have the CDC, which is well staffed for small outbreaks, at least. They have contained the Tennessee TB outbreak twice in the last three years or so.

Bully Beef
(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:33 - ID#259261)
It is better to have loved a short women than not a tall.
Thanx for the words of encouragement. Gold may be insurance but I really think many on this page have it for more than that. They say the miners in the YUKON are not going to work this spring.They just can't do it for 300 dollars.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:35 - ID#285392)
APH Great timing on your behalf
Sold my OEX options yesterday but still have May $6.75 silver options. As per your advice I will try to sell them on any reasonable rise and repurchase if silver reaches the $5.50 mark. I will hold off purchasing oex calls until we have the Dow 8300 you predicted. I know that no forecasts are imbedded in concrete but you sure are the best forecaster I know, THANKS.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:38 - ID#210235)
On the other hand, Limited Liability Companies may be the just another partial shield producers against consumers specious lawsuits and juries who equate the court system with a lottery, for the plaintiff. Currently, I am looking into that form for our next startup. How else to offer a product in the USA without exposing the kids' legacy?

(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:41 - ID#57232)
Japanes buying safes
Donald: Your 6:59 is intriguing. What would you put in a safe? Securities? I would have gold, platinum, silver, etc in it. If so, the Japanese people might very well be selling whatever securities they can sell, and converting the proceeds to a hard asset of some kind.

My guess is that things will get real dicey in Japan after April 1, if the Japanese people really do the 'unthinkable', and start withdrawing their money. I don't think selling all of their US treasuries holdings will be enough to prop up the Japanese markets, if there is a major 'sea change' in Japan. On the other side, the Japanese usually do what their government tells them to do -- but what if the government is threatening to take whatever savings they have left?

Anything new about China devaluations? The suspense is killing me. We may yet have another test of the $280/oz gold price if China devalues and Japan implodes.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:43 - ID#170304)
mysterious wabbit trick cards

can someone please tell me how this damn card game works....i am
going bananas trying to figure it pick a card and the
wabbit eats disappears....kinda a feels like my junior
gold stock picks....

Spud Master
(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:44 - ID#273112)
the second set of cards displayed have none of the original cards.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:47 - ID#288399)
Kitco great pool of info
Donald, keep up your good posts. We all appreciate it.

Steve in TO__A
(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:47 - ID#209265)
Silver's not decoupled
As per a recent post- silver is not decoupled from the lease rate! The lease rate has actually predicted the POS quite nicely, and still tracks it.

It started to rise several months ago, before the infamous "market manipulation" lawsuit, and kept rising through the period while Buffett was accumulating his position. The price of silver followed nicely along- which was what led the whining shorts in Vancouver & New York to try to get the courts to intervene as they took a bath getting out of their positions.

After Buffett's announcement lease rates shot up over 30% as the herd tried to stampede into silver, and now that demand, and prices have settled back into the $6 and change area, lease rates are down to a 6% - 9% range. They're not indicating anything we don't know now, but they were a valuable clue back when there was an unknown force ( Buffett ) driving the market. The coupling is intact & just fine. In the future, if you see some unexplained movement in the lease rates- pay attention, something is going on that you don't know about yet, it's not a matter of "decoupling."

BTW- Gold lease rates are very important right now. Less than 2% is a "reasonable" value, since borrowers can easily make money at those rates. In particular, Gold-Carry speculators can make money with POG being so stable. The Gold-Carry folks will be squeezed severely, though, if rates start heading into the same territory as T-Bill rates, and they're going to have to run cover. It'll be a positive feedback cycle, though, where covering will push the POG up, putting a further squeeze on the borrowers. Might cause a nice spike in the POG. Watch for a rise in lease rates to 6-7%, that'll do it, or any rise above 4% coupled with a significant rise in the POG. Not saying it will happen, but if it does, it'll squeeze out a whole bunch of arbitrageurs.


(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:53 - ID#289357)
Solomon Smith Barney on Gold/ Gold Stocks
Here's an excerpt from Mar 2 'The Weekly Prospector' published by Solomon Smith Barney:

'The price of gold has fallen back below $300 per ounce. We believe the market has absorbed dishoarding by South Koreans in the wake of Asian financial turmoil. Meanwhile, the issue of European central bank sales continues to perplex: South African Reserve Bank Governor Chris Stals said he expects more European selling ahead of Economic and Monetary Union, yet the market still awaits confirmation of substantial 1997 sales. The new European Central Bank appears likely to hold some gold, but EMU members appear to disagree on how much. The British suggest that gold will comprise about 5% of total reserves, while the French seem to be pushing for a higher percentage.'

'DIVERGING PRECIOUS METALS The price of gold has tumbled to 18-year lows, but we believe that downside risks are limited by the industry's high cost stucture. At current prices, more mines will be shuttered. Moreover, we expect that central banks will sell less gold in 1998 as European Economic and Monetary Union ( EMU ) approaches. We are positive, but selective, in the gold sector, with an emphasis on the large-cap companies, turnaround stories, and special situations in platinum/palladium and silver.'

Price targets:

Agnico-Eagle Mines $9

Amax Gold $4

Apex Silver $18

Barrick Gold $26

Battle Mountain Gold $6

Cambior $8

Echo Bay Mines $1

Getchell Gold $37

Hecla Mining $6

Homestake Mining $15

Lihir Gold $30

Newmont Gold $40

Newmont Mining $40

Placer Dome $20

Royal Oak Mines $3

Stillwater Mining $50

(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:56 - ID#57232)
Comex silver and gold stores -- when will they run out?
Steve in TO: Do you have any idea when comex silver of gold stores will run out? Are we talking about months, or years? I think the next runup in silver ( or gold ) is going to come from a crisis of this kind, as other events from Japan, China, Europe or South America seem bearish for gold. I think the war risk has receeded for now with Saddam, and Israel is petitioning to back out of the Golan Heights. North Korea is a wild card - with the news that they may run out of grains in two weeks. Would NK start a war to cover up internal weakness? Wonder why my investments in Oil stocks are rising rapidly.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 12:58 - ID#410198)
Bullybeef,not sure I get the short women thing,paper in all forms is a promise to pay
when that faith is questioned you have a problem that was the case in the late 20's no body TRUSTED the dollar the only way it regained respect was to offer gold in exchange,just see how long it takes for the Asian tigers to offer the same

(Wed Mar 04 1998 13:01 - ID#170304)
Spud master
DUH! wonder they fooled with the junior golds....thanks

(Wed Mar 04 1998 13:06 - ID#153102)
On what other hand ? Your rationale for using the government liability limiting product is the self-justification used by every user of it. Think of it as an arms race in legal products. These things are all creations of lawyers. None of their creations can appear in court to speak for themselves. They all have to be represented by an attorney. It's a race to the moral bottom with ever increasing non-productive carrying costs. The LLP is the legal equivalent in arms race terminology of a stealth weapon or a Marburg variant. In a few years they will obsolete that and come out with a new model offering even better limits of liability. Until finally nobody is liable for anything. Which is pretty much where we are now if you think about it. What does limited liability have to do with establishing justice ? Nothing.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 13:13 - ID#238295)
gold stocks
Gold stocks holding up very well today despite $1.40 drop in bullion.

Spud Master
(Wed Mar 04 1998 13:19 - ID#273112)
@JTF ... perhaps the COMEX gold pantry is already bare...
Tyler Rose, Questor - any lucking getting your COMEX gold bars delivered yet?

Hmmmm. Given the scandle concerning two former COMEX warehouses, one wonders if there is ANY physical gold left in the COMEX warehouse - only 'virtual' paper gold certs ( big grin ) . Yous cana hav all da gold yous wants, yous just cant take no delivery!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 13:22 - ID#238295)
Salomon.Smith Barney
Silverbaron; Thanks for the Salomon/Smith barney excerps! Hopefully other Wall Street firms will follow brfore too long.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 13:26 - ID#238295)
gold quotes
The site for gold, silver, globex, and dollar index again.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 13:37 - ID#26669)
Spudmaster. Ixnay on ethay OMEXCay efaultday!
Have you really stopped to consider the full implications of that last question? If the warehouses are stiffing the little customers and word gets out there could be a run like banks have had. Then if their is loss of confidence it could effect not just gold but agricultural commodities! The domino effect could be small and self contained, but if it progresses could be very large indeed. ( I read a very good book recently, a biography of Tecumseh Sherman, which discussed his hardships when his bank defaulted during the Panic of 1859 so am no longer minimizing such apocalyptic risks. )

So the question at this point is not "do you have physical gold" but "are you a member of a functioning but isolated agricultural community with sufficient pool of skilled tradesmen, teachers, et. cetera to survive a hundre years of dark age?" COMEX default is the sort of thing that Steven King should write about! ;^ )

Bully Beef
(Wed Mar 04 1998 13:41 - ID#259282)
robnoel ...It's a pun on " a tall" "at all".
It's totally unrelated.I'm not shorting gold. I long for it.Despite the experts on the asian crisis it is obvious that the powers that be are playing a game of damage control in the media, to keep investors from panicking and taking their money and running for cover. U.S. companies profits are about to drop and that is THE STORY. There is no other story in town. Lower profits will lead to a run in the market. Investors are looking for a sign that it's time to run and Greenspam won't give it to them. He caint.Thats his job. Look to the second quarter. I'm staying till October in here and if nothing happens I'm getting out.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 13:44 - ID#338289)
snowbird: APH
snowbird: I second your thoughts on APH. Did he post in the last few days? A quick search does not turn up anything. Based on the contents of your post he feels we are going to continue heading south on silver for the moment. Is that correct? BTW, I know exactly what it feels like to be in your current silver position. Been there, done that several times. Trading silver futures is the hardest thing I never learned ( yet ) . I may take a short term short position but, like you, I'm looking for that bottom of wave II before I get really serious. It's gonna be a beautiful ride up cuz the fundaMETALs for silver have not changed.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 13:47 - ID#222231)
The Analsyt-Re: your 11:30 post
The Analsyt, I saw your 11:30 post and thought you might be interested in reading the following post to mozel by me. You are right. Even the slightest interest by the masses for some gold could have a definite impact on price.

Date: Tue Mar 03 1998 02:15
Pete ( mozel ) ID#222231:
Are you asking this question, or is it the forum? I had not noticed that
others in the forum were interested in my opinions regarding my

You posed an interesting question. The US is not an island by itself. The
existing above ground gold would have to be distributed world wide,
otherwise the world outside the US would be destitute and poverty
stricken beyond belief if gold was the only unit of exchange.

Several assumptions would have to be made, and all calculations are

1 ) Total existing gold above ground is +/- 120,000 metric tons.
2 ) 1 metric ton = 32,150 troy oz
3 ) 120,000 mt times 32,150oz = 3,858,000,000 troy oz's.
4 ) World population = +/- 5,500,000,000 people.
5 ) Assume 25% of world population would be able to purchase or own
6 ) 5,500,000,000 times 25% = 1,375,000,000 people eligible for gold
purchase or ownership.
7 ) Assume 5 yrs forward gold production of 2,500 tons/yr times 32,150
troy oz = 401,875,000 troy oz's ( use 500,000,000 oz's ) added to
3,858,000,000 oz's = 4,358,000,000 oz's for distribution.
8 ) Let's use a figure of 5,000,000,000 oz's for simplification.
9 ) If this gold were distributed evenly, each person would have
possession of 5 bil oz's divided by 1.375 bil people or 3.64 oz's/person.

Now we know, or should know, that +/- 2% of this 1.375 bil people will
own 90% of the worlds wealth. 2% of 1.375 bil people = 27,500,000 people
would own 90% of 5 bil oz's. This leaves 5 bil times 90% = 4.5 bil oz's
distributed between 27.5 mil people. The balance of 500 mil oz's would be
distributed between 1.3475 bil people.

a ) The wealthiest would own 4.5 bil oz's/27.5 mil people = 164 +/-

b ) The average person would own 500 mil oz's/1.3475 bil people = 0.40+/-

All of the above are calculated using reasonable assumptions and even
distributions. I've left silver out of the equation because I have no idea of
what the above ground world supply is. For practical purposes, assume
the above gold distributions are doubled to account for silver, as an

Wealthiest = 164oz * 2 = 328oz/person @ $300/oz = $98,400.00/ elite.

Average person = 0.40 * 2 = ) .80oz/person @ $300/oz = $240.00/avg person.

The availability for 100% backing of PM's as currency in this modern
world would not be adequate for world currency demand. Even if gold was
valued at 10 or 20 times the existing price to $3,000/$6,000/oz, it still
would not be adequate. IMHO.

P.S. I know that I'm abrasive at times and I regret my actions if I have
offended anyone. So, if you or anyone else wants to take a shot at me, be
my guest.

Return to Kitco Homepage

Spud Master
(Wed Mar 04 1998 13:50 - ID#273112)
@223, COMEX, ticker-tape & lies
Ah well, indeed. Still, WHO really has proof that there's gold left in COMEX? Anyone got a Web-cam looking onto one or more of the COMEX warehouse floors to confirm bricks of goldlike stuff?

I would have expected Tyler Rose ( owed 1 contract = 100oz ) or Questor ( owed 15 contracts = 1,500 oz ) to have spoken up by now concerning delivery of the goods. Sure would be nice to HEAR something definitive.

Have they been silenced somehow? Wacked? Where's my LeCarre? ( grin )

Gold, gold everywhere, but not a drop to have... sure does sound as though everything is in place for the Mother of all Scandals...

(Wed Mar 04 1998 13:50 - ID#410198)
Ooh I get it Bullybeef, when u want to sell I'll buy and add it to the other stuff i got at $410

(Wed Mar 04 1998 13:58 - ID#286262)
@Spud Master
That's it! Everyone write their congressperson and demand that We The People have a web cam installed in Fort Knox so that we can look after our gold. Beautiful. Ok, Comex is probably a private entity, but as a public service, by all means, lets see it.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 13:58 - ID#333232)
Breaking News...
As a follow-up to "Capone's Vault", Geraldo Rivera will now examine the COMEX gold warehouse stocks - and then Fort Knox....

(Wed Mar 04 1998 13:58 - ID#255284)
a dead hand sheikh
mozel, compadre
This legal fiction of creating a "person" in the form of a limited liability joint stock company has become absurd. How can a human "person" defame a joint stock company?. As in the recent MacDinar's case in the UK. Words are being removed by copyright from our languages and symbols appropriated from humanity for these rapacious frankenstein beasts.

However the muslim world's legal system, as little I know of it has even greater systematic problems. It allows the creation of perpetual ( that means perpetual ) Islamic Trusts. Land donated to these trusts, often by way of checking one's ticket to Paradise, remains in the hands of the local mosque for ever. This is called Mort main. The dead hand. Once land enters these trusts there is no impetus to work it or care for it. The land deteriorates and is removed from active production. More and more land is annexed in this way, for ever. And that's a long time.

Frustrated: We 3 R 1.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 13:59 - ID#153102)
I believe it is a provable fallacy to equate the acts of Nature with the acts of evil intent done by depraved men and wwomen. Nature does not design death.

Bully Beef
(Wed Mar 04 1998 13:59 - ID#259282)
I bought at about 330.
A long way to go . What was the last thing that went through the shorts mind when gold hit 360.? It rect 'im ,damn near killed 'im.

Bully Beef
(Wed Mar 04 1998 14:04 - ID#259282)
I love this site. It's dynamic. I've got the flu and my brain is boiling but I'm amused and no one I come into contact here gets it. Thank-you for allowing me to participate. Good bye for now.

The Analyst
(Wed Mar 04 1998 14:07 - ID#293343)
Thanks, Pete.
It sounds like there are 4 billion ounces of gold, thats less than
1 per person worldwide, less than a pound per American.
Personally, I measure my wealth in gold, not dollars. I would like
to see gold go down, because I'm going to buy more. I doubt if
I'll ever sell, trade gold for paper? I have more dollars than gold,
so when gold goes up, my wealth decreases.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 14:09 - ID#262242)
To Mozel
Dear Mozel, regarding your 13.06 post. Your concept is excellent, we should be responsible for our own actions. However, in this country ( U.S.A. ) if you have worked, saved, and invested and have accumulated assets and do not protect them, there is a good chance you will die a pauper, depend on a government agency ( Social Security ) or be dependent on your relatives to support you in your old age. The money and assets you have worked for will go to attorneys & the plantiffs in a lawsuit. In earlier years, people would work hard, save and invest there money wisely to "get ahead". Now, most people want to either win a lawsuit or win the lottery to "make it big". Sir, you would not have made that statement if you had ever been a defendent in a lawsuit that you would have lost everything if you lost and it cost you substantial money to defend. We do need to do something to alieviate the actions of predetory attorneys in our wonderful country.


(Wed Mar 04 1998 14:10 - ID#153102)
Corporations, etc. are mortmain.
Read some Blackstone at
We are beset by a plague of Blackstone lawyers who spawn on the bodies of the vermin bankers.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 14:15 - ID#289357)
Old Gold @ Solomon Smith Barney
Oopsie! I left out their top pick:

Freeport-McMoran Copper and Gold target: $30

(Wed Mar 04 1998 14:17 - ID#340459)
Where is the money, Dow & equities down, T-Bill's down, POG is down, Almost all commodities down,
Where is the money going to, All the above positions seem to be liquidating, Any Thoughts wise Head's

(Wed Mar 04 1998 14:20 - ID#255284)
Auckland, city of sails, harbours, & volcanos just no power...
Breaking News Auckland's ( non ) Electricity Provider, Mercury Energy ( ha ha ) announced that they cannot foresee Auckland's CBD returning to full power for at least 2 months.

Retailers T/0 10-15% of expected. Many are going under, rents are still due, expenses need to be paid. Insurance companies are ducking for cover. Mercury energy is duck-shoving. All over Auckland's periphery ( and it's a big one ) offices have been set up in warehouses, empty suburban offices and private homes. This is a systematic breakdown in a modern city. The area affected is only the CBD. Most of Auckland still has full power. ( on Public radio *just* now, one retailer used the "f" word, I've never heard it on Radio New Zealand before ) . However traffic lights are out in the city, our over-stressed motorway system is suffering as motorway egresses are being clogged.

My kind of town.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 14:22 - ID#26669)
Pete re equitable division of wealth
Hmmm...IMHO you leave out one small point in your careful arithmetic dividing the world's wealth. That is the principle that wealth flows from weak hands to strong. As a point of illustration do you recall how Monteczuma and Cortes divided their gold?

I suspect that an obligate gold standard would first require loss of confidence in all other forms of wealth. So I would suspect that it would require global war or anarchy or plague to force complete suspension of the present rules and an international gold standard. In which case gold would probably end up as a proxy for those even more valuable metals, plutonium and uranium. And the possessor of the most bombs would decide the conversion rates. IMHO

So it ain't going to happen any time soon. IMHO

(Wed Mar 04 1998 14:24 - ID#33024)

(Wed Mar 04 1998 14:26 - ID#252127)

Bully Beef, your comments make me think of those to be expected from Heavy Hitter, when that ole slugger's batting slump seemed to be coming to an end.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 14:26 - ID#340459)
I bought Physical at $475-480 in 1990, Still waiting for it to pop back
Anyone waiting for longer period with physical ? God knows IF they will ever be a turn around, People talking about $10,000 ounce makes me wonder whether we are going nutty...

(Wed Mar 04 1998 14:27 - ID#348286)
@MoreNews: GOLD AUCTIONS much better way to sell Gold than the current CLOAK & DAGGER Methods......
"Following a decsision on the actual gold reserves to be held by the European Central Bank, the ECB should announce that if a member national central bank wishes to sell a proportion of its own gold reserves it must do so through gold auctions to be organised by ECB itself."

MARKET UPDATE ( 3/4/98 ) AM-----Gold remained unmotivated this morning after yesterday's $2 drop. We have pointed out consistently here and in our newsletter that the alleged budget surpluses were a figment of the Clintonian imagination with Congress, by and large, buying into the charade as a sap for their own re-election efforts. Now Alan Greenspan tells Congress this morning that future surpluses depend upon Congress itself "not succumbing to the temptation to commit prematurely to future surpluses that exist only on paper." In other words, the surpluses don't exist just as we've maintained. Of course there's not mathematical mystery here. All you have to do is subtract last February's national debt figure from this January's and you get something on the order of $200 billion -- so we don't know where this dreamland economics is going to get us. As far as gold news goes this morning, lease rates remained high. It's a wonder the price hasn't done anything. Korea announced that gold collections were now waning and that they collected 227 tons and already exported 196 tons. Warren Buffett is taking delivery on the final installment of his 130 million ounces of silver this week. It will be interesting to see if that metal starts to run now that the shorts have been able to fill their positions at substantially less than the $7 plus high. There was an interesting report on Reuters this morning our of Kalgoolie, Australia quoting N.M. Rothschild & Sons director Guy Rothschild saying that "Following a decsision on the actual gold reserves to be held by the European Central Bank, the ECB should announce that if a member national central bank wishes to sell a proportion of its own gold reserves it must do so through gold auctions to be organised by ECB itself." Rothschild went on to say that "The lack of transparency, the unwillingness to announce a clear strategy has undermined the market and damaged the mining industry." This statement by the powerful director of N .M. Rothschild & Sons is another indicator of the about-face change in the attitude toward gold by major players. This is an extension of the very positive ( for gold ) results of the Davos meeting reported on here yesterday and treated in some detail in the next News & Views, available by clicking on the Order Form at the bottom of this page. Sincere gold investors are invited to request a free copy of the newsletter. That's it for now. It seems pretty quiet overall. We'll update if anything happens but we expect trading today to remain subdued.

Spud Master
(Wed Mar 04 1998 14:33 - ID#273112)
@Midas ... it's all going
into 'General Magic' up 144% today after Microsloth weighed in with a minority investment in their new wireless networking slothware. Only 9.6 million shares of this teeny, tiny company exchanged sweaty plams today so far...

... if only Bill Gates would take a minority position in gold ( wink )

(Wed Mar 04 1998 14:33 - ID#153102)
I don't know to what statement you refer.

Your remarks indicate you don't get my drift at all.

And what does a line from a Lee Greenwood song have to do with anything ?
What God will bless a legal fiction like USA ? Lucifer ? How about "God Bless us every one." Tiny Tim

(Wed Mar 04 1998 14:39 - ID#187218)
@BillinOregon,,,, I receive your e-mail BUT haven't had a chance to digest it,,,,
When I do I'll get back to you!.,,,,, Thanx so much,,,,,

Bully Beef
(Wed Mar 04 1998 14:42 - ID#259282)
Apologies for making light.
I forget there are many here who paid much more than I for gold. We have to go out to every chat line and pump gold. How is it possible to positively affect the price of gold through this medium? That is the question we should answer. Perhaps a gold day where we all agree to speak on gold in every chat group and a day where we all make a 1000.00 dollar purchase of gold stocks or bullion to set the wheels in motion. Could a handful of people affect the price. ( if they aren't Barons )

(Wed Mar 04 1998 14:47 - ID#153102)
@BullyBeef Send an e-mail to the Bank of England.

Bully Beef
(Wed Mar 04 1998 14:49 - ID#259282)
Nice graph Stefan.
I don't know how you can postulate those future lines in the down direction but if tech analysis works this will be a real ride.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 14:51 - ID#153102)
In "Limited Liability" We Trust. And don't it show it everywhere you look.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:05 - ID#288399)
What are Prechter's latest targets, anyone? For equities and/or gold?

Spud Master
(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:09 - ID#273112)
Current US FedGov deficit now $115 billion dollars
03/03/1998 $5,528,586,832,076.70

09/30/1997 $5,413,146,011,397.34 ( start of US FedGov fiscal year )

US FedGov is up to a cool $115 BILLION dollars deeper in debt as of yesterday.

Just keep sucking up the sewage-line spumed from Washington D.C. and their pet reporters: "there is no debt. the budget is balanced. up is down. black is white...."

(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:10 - ID#266105)
@duh e-gulls, mo'tell (willy) californee

EB, coppywright

(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:11 - ID#153102)
"The availability for 100% backing of PM's as currency in this modern
world would not be adequate for world currency demand. Even if gold was
valued at 10 or 20 times the existing price to $3,000/$6,000/oz, it
still would not be adequate. IMHO."

What is "world currency demand" ? If you don't mind claifying that important sounding phrase. Are you just saying gold and silver coin cannot be used as currency because then we could not "print more money" because and when "we need more money" ?

Spud Master
(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:12 - ID#273112)
All that Microsloth touches is gold ... or how I learned to stop worrying & love Bill
'General Magic' now up 160% today, and a mere 10.5 million shares running around like a mad hampster on its tread wheel.

Guess I'll go play with my Mac & Newton & think of impending COMEX implossion.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:13 - ID#266105)

Correction, Blind Willie McTell

(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:17 - ID#28594)
When something dies, 5,000+ years of human history suggest that an appropriate ceremony is held, after which the communicants move on to things which have not died, i.e. Life. The unending funeral for gold is a message. We should read it.

China: The yuans funeral is an oversubscribed event. Look to the Hong Kong dollar.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:20 - ID#153102)
Let's collaborate on some IPO's. We'll name them "Galactic Magic" and "Universal Magic". Do you think Smart Barney would underwrite ?

(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:25 - ID#36977)
A little humor
A tourist wanders into a back-alley antique shop in San Francisco's Chinatown. Picking through the objects on display he discovers a detailed, life-sized bronze sculpture of a rat. The sculpture is so interesting and unique that he picks it up and asks the shop owner what it costs.
"Twelve dollars for the rat, sir," says the shop owner, "and a thousand dollars more for the story behind it."
"You can keep the story, old man," he replies, "but I'll take the rat."
The transaction complete, the tourist leaves the store with the bronze rat under his arm. As he crosses the street in front of the store, two live rats emerge from a sewer drain and fall into step behind him. Nervously looking over his shoulder, he begins to walk faster, but every time he passes another sewer drain, more rats come out and follow him.
By the time he's walked two blocks, at least a hundred rats are at is heels, and people begin to point and shout. He walks even faster, and soon breaks into a trot as multitudes of rats swarm from sewers, sements, vacant lots, and abandoned cars. Rats by the thousands are at his heels, and as he sees the waterfront at the bottom of the hill, he panics and starts to run full tilt. No matter how fast he runs, the rats keep up, squealing hideously, now not just thousands but millions, so that by the time he comes rushing up to the water's edge a trail of rats twelve city blocks long is behind him.
Making a mighty leap, he jumps up onto a light post, grasping it with one arm while he hurls the bronze rat into San Francisco Bay with the other, as far as he can heave it. Pulling his legs up and clinging to the light post, he watches in amazement as the seething tide of rats surges over the breakwater into the sea, where they drown.
Shaken and mumbling, he makes his way back to the antique shop. "Ah, so you've come back for the rest of the story," says the owner.
"No," says the tourist. "I was wondering if you have a lawyer."

No offence to Tortfeaser or other lawyers on Kitco intended.

Go Bronze . . . er, ah, gold!

Charles Keeling
(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:26 - ID#344225)
RE: COMEX Gold Inventory, and the
remnants that are left at Fort Knox.

I used to live in Ft. Lauderdale Fla.
There was a new business that opened up in the
late 70's in the highest downtown building in
Ft. Lauderdale. Their offices were on the top
floor ( penthouse ) . On top of the building was
a very big gold sign that read IGBE.

These letters stood for the International Gold
Bulion Exchange. When you visited the IGBE
offices you had a chance to look through the
steel bars that surrounded a large stainless
steel walk in safe. Inside the safe you could
see a large number of GOLD BARS stacked on the
floor. A uniformed guard with a gun was
stationed just outside the locked steel cage.

All of those bars on display were indeed an
impressive sight that instilled a great deal
of confidence in the investors who filed into
the penthouse offices to deposit their money.

The IGBE grew and prospered. The owners drove
new Jaguars around town and lived in an ocean
side mansion. I met the owners mother and her
daughter at a social function and became friends
with the daughter. Somewhle later we were
having dinner out together and I told her that
I was into gold stocks, and I was considering
depositing some of my cash at IGBE. The
value of deposits at IBGE fluctuated up and
down with the POG, so at that point in time
it did look like a very good thing.
To my surprise, my friend said "don't do it."

She would say anything else, and I decided that
indeed I would not open an account there.

Months later the scandal erupted. People
were having a very hard time getting their
money out of IGBE. In the end, the business
went bankrupt and the owners were jailed.

The gold bars in the vault turned out to be
made out of wood that was given a coat of very
fine gold paint.

The Arab countries that hold gold derivatives
( paper ) should be concerned. In the end,
someone holding this paper is going to come up

We should truly be concerned about what is
really in Fort Knox, and the COMEX.

That scam in Ft. Lauderdale worked fine for
years until it finally unravelled. It was
the downturn in gold from the highs of $850
that brought about the demise of IGBE.
People started wanting out, and the two
brothers that owned the company had spent too
much of the depositers money.


(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:28 - ID#222231)
My Dear 223, I had to use assumptions in my calcs. Those calcs were just to show how scarce gold is to the worlds population. Imagine, if each person in the world today owned gold, it would amount to less than 1oz/person ( you can have 90% & I'll take the other 10% ) . Then imagine, if 20% of the worlds population ( and I care not about the distribution ) , owned gold, with the calculations I used, 5 bil oz / 1.1 bil people would exhaust the current gold existing above ground, and 5 yrs forward production, of gold.

Now, if everone just bought a few little trinkets, all the goldbugs that scarfed up a few coins would be on easy street. BUY EVERYONE, BYYYYYYYY!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:29 - ID#36977)
Pretty hard to mess up the punch line of a "cut & paste" joke, but I was successful.
Make that a "Bronze lawyer" ( Insert a RED sad face thingy here )

(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:30 - ID#153102)
Very wise words. It's obviously a new, more "realistic" world. We have clearly at the banker-governor-lawyer level of the species evolved past human nature and become a new paradigm for the whole species.

I'm moving on. This is one dumb cluck that's going to acquire himself a few chickens.

But, not in Hong Kong.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:34 - ID#262242)
If I took your post out of context, I apolegize. Yes, GOD BLESS AMERICA and GOD BLESS US ALL

(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:39 - ID#222231)
Why do we have to be at loggerheads with each other most ( all ) of the time? Was it not you that said the currency should be only gold or silver coin. If you did not state or imply that, then I apologise. My God, I only wanted to show the relative scarcity of gold. No more, no less.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:46 - ID#266105)

mozel ( @JTF ) ID#153102:
I believe it is a provable fallacy to equate the acts of Nature with the acts of evil intent
done by depraved men and wwomen. Nature does not design death.


Youse gotta mozel yo'use can be proud of. I gotta go grocery

(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:48 - ID#342282)
Comex data on CBS marketwatch
I have been having a problem with volume and price data at this source. I found this number for clarification 800 762 7538. It appears as if the volume data for the previous session is posted on the current session. I don't quite see this as accurate info. The market sessions are stated as m - f 8:20 to 2:30, vol available at "about" 4 pm. M - th 4pm to 8am, vol at about 9 am. Sun 7pm to 8 am vol at about 8:30 am. If this is not appropriate to anyone's use please call the 800 #. I can't believe that CBS is carrying their normal news spin into financial data. Let me know if anybody gets any results. Thanx

(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:48 - ID#210235)
Ok, I can only agree with you that in the USA we have an arms race of sorts on liability issues. So we're on different sides of the street here. It's my money that is at stake here, and the guns may be pointed at me. Are you somehow under the delusion that only dangerous or harmful products could incur a product liability lawsuit?

Many Europeans have told me that they do not currently introduce new products into the US market because in this country, people do not accept responsibility for their choice to use a product, and the possible consequences. We in the US are much poorer for this assault on those who produce.

For example, on the continent, the children's playgrounds, both public and private ( such as at petting zoos, botanical gardens, etc. ) have wonderful and potentially very dangerous equipment on them. Swings on long ropes that rise up 20' into the air. Trampolines, jungle gyms, etc. These have been pulled out of the USA's playgrounds in the last 15 years. No thrills in these tube slides that you can't possibly fall off. The potential legal liability is just too high to offer these products in the US.

We are putting together a company, and know darn well that it's the depth of the pockets of the defendant, not the validity of a case, that will take it to court in the USA. Like the folks in ATLAS SHRUGGED, we have half a mind to stop creating. Maybe going offshore is a better answer. Do you have any real suggestions, or would you just like us to expose ourselves in the name of truth and justice and yell "fire" to one and all, see if they can hit us?

(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:51 - ID#222231)
The Analyst
My policy on physical gold is to buy it no matter what the price at the time I can move a few bucks into them. I've bought low, and I've bought high. I regard my stash as nothing more than insurance. Who was it that said, "BETTER TO HAVE IT AND NOT NEED IT THAN TO NEED IT AND NOT HAVE IT. And besides, when I pull a few out and inspect them, they are beautiful! Really gets my rocks off.

Spud Master
(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:52 - ID#273112)
@Mozel & @SDRer
Mozel - right-o. These market lemmings will snap at anything, apparently. I dread & dread the end of this great Ponzi scheme called 'the stock market'. 60 million participants all rush in, thinking they're rich - and they are, 'virtually rich'. Only they can never be 'really rich'. For if all could take their money out - at best they would only have what they put in. And of course, in reality, they will have less.

It's a great confidence scam: only the 'smart money' ( confindence men running the show ) take money out constantly & quitely. The poor lemming baby boomer investor just keeps pouring in his life ... waiting until the promised day in 2010 ... retirement day ... when he and the other 67 million ALL try to realize their 'gains' ... their 'virtual wealth'. POOF!!!

@SDRer - come now, old bean. Gold isn't dead. Any euphoria, any mania will always end, and reality, that harsh, politically incorrect femme, will reassert herself. Beware of brokers bearing paper! I'll take my gold, thank you. The Dow is an infinitestimal blip in time compared to gold's +5,000 years.

Charles Keeling
(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:54 - ID#344225)
RE Your post on countrys backing their
paper money with GOLD.

I certainly agree. There is not enough gold
for 100% backing.

There was a very excellent article on the Gold
Eagle site a few weeks ago that did a study.
Basiically this study showed that the US,
England, France, Switzerland, Germany and a
coule of other countrys had a very good
position in the yellow metal that seemed to
act as a confidence builder in each nations
currency. Japan does not have enough gold
to fill this need. Since the US has such a
high debt, it might make sense for them to
sell some ( 50%-60% ) of their US treasuries
and buy gold in order to stabilize their

Switzerland had the largest percentage of
gold to paper currency.

This article suggested that major countrys
could hold perhaps a 20% gold to paper
currency ratio in order to prevent rampant
currency speculation.

Steve in TO__A
(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:54 - ID#209265)
JTF - COMEX silver stores depleting
Replying to your earlier message. I'm afraid I haven't been keeping up with the rate of decline of COMEX stores- the last numbers I saw were a few weeks ago in the Financial Post. I guess I should look it up again.

Remember, though, that COMEX will not run out of silver. They have to make sure they can meet demands for delivery, so before they sell their last ounce of silver they'll either have to increase their supply, if they can, or demand will be reduced by means of commercials shifting purchases to other exchanges such as the LME, and price increases. What will happen is that as supplies get squeezed the spot price and prices on near contracts will be forced up, and the market will go into backwardation. Silver actually did go into backwardation several weeks ago.

Of course, the price increase part of the equation is what interests everyone here. BTW- I haven't seen any information to the effect that COMEX is running low on gold, and I don't think it would be likely to in the near future. Am I wrong about that?


(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:57 - ID#57232)
Equating acts of nature with Human depravity?
mozel: I think you again misunderstand me. If you review the history of molecular biology from its beginnings, the greatest objection to anyone performing genetic engineering was the monsters that the scientists would create. As it turns out, when it was permitted, we humans fortunately still have not been able to match the sheer immensity, perversity and diversity of nature. Despite the depravity of certain groups in this world, who could very well wreak destruction on the rest of us, nature is still much more effective than we are. For example, many genetically engineered products do not breed true. I do not wish to live on this world if there comes a day when our genetic engineering efforts outperform nature itself.

Furtunately it will take more than the sequencing of the human genome to do this, as we still do not understand the molecular biology of a bacterium, or even that of a virus. I would be more worried about our being unable to defend ourselves from that virulent new strain of influenza. Our molecular biologists are not yet able to do this. We still have not been able to control the HIV virus, or adequately deal with MDR resistant organisms in our hospitals.

I am not discounting the dangers of Anthrax, Botulinum, and Tularemia, all of which could be packaged by terrorists and disseminated by terrorists. You may recall from Old Soldiers comments that it is fortunately not that easy to effectively deliver these agents. Regardless, I am petitioning for our local medical center ( rural central US ) to have information on hand should a such disaster occur. But -- I still would be much more concerned about the organisms already threating our safety, rather than the ones we don't know about.

Spud Master
(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:58 - ID#273112)
Good point .... the Comex & Fort Knox web-cams
will also have remote robot manipulator arms able to pick up a random bar and place it on a scale for weighing, and a secondary x-ray emission spectrometer for purity. ( grin ) . Anything else?

A bank is just a confidence scam operation in a nice building staffed by well-educated, well-dressed conmen and conwomen.

For my money, I'll bet there's no gold in either Fort Knox, and very little to none in COMEX now.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:58 - ID#222231)
2bro2b, mozel
What the hell is the difference? The end result is the same.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 15:59 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Prometheus -- Why in the world would you want to start a business in this country given all the rules, regs, taxes, insurance, and all forms of other liabilities, plus toooo many long hours? It's not like you will 'own' it for the likes of all of the above. Bother!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:02 - ID#57232)
Thanks for your prompt response
Steve in TO: I appreciate your insight -- I had suspected that it was not as simple as watching the 'amount of sand in the sand timer'. I understand science fairly well, but the hidden mysteries of the markets escape me. I find quantum mechanics easier than trying to predict the price trend of gold. Too much of the markets are hidden from view.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:02 - ID#266105)

Pete- but you can't fault a guy for tryin' : )

Really gone now, it's more important.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:04 - ID#28594)
Mozel--Public Benefactors and Their Rewards--
"It has been the lot of all men, in all ages, who have aspired to the honor of guiding, instructing, or amending mankind, to have their paths beset by every persecution from adversaires, by every misconstruction from friends; no quarter from the one, --no charitable construction from the other! To be misconstrued, misrepresented, borne down, till it was in vain to bear any longer, has been their fate. But truth will survive, and calumny has its day." Henry Brougham, Baron Brougham ( England, 1778-1868 )

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:07 - ID#222231)
Try using Murphy's Law.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:10 - ID#210235)
Would you believe "because it's fun"? Am seriously reconsidering "in this country". Will re-examine overall tax strategy with off-shore company. If we didn't have this really fun product in mind that we're putting together with terrific folks, would go fishing. Thanks for a laugh, there. BBL

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:11 - ID#33650)
thanks for taking your time. I was unable to respond earlier as the WWW was much too slow to day. I will try to elaborate what I omitted before.
What I wanted to express is the following:

Of course Kicoites would say: "sell MSFT, repay the loan for the house, repay the whole mortgage, sell the house, rent one, and buy gold coins and stocks".
I agree to that, but: In germany capital gains on stocks are taxfree after 1 year. If I have a hefty gain and sell earlier, I have to pay 60 percent taxes and cannot deduct any margin costs. So a short term hedge would be necessary.
While it is possible to repay the loan on the stocks thereafter, it is not possible to repay the mortgage. It is fixed for a certain time and was agreed when interest rates were much higher. So any bank would require a high compensation which is not tax deductible. In my special case interest for the mortgage is still deductible for this year. And a capital gain from the sale of the house would not be taxed. But the bank's compensation would reduce this gain. Selling the house with the mortgage would work but the buyer would ask for the same compensation.
My family wants to keep the house and as I am not the only owner, I cant do what I want.
Mywife and kids want to live in this house not just another rented one. I could theoretically sell the house and stay in there, but prices for houses where families live in as tenant are much lower because of our socialist rent law. ( 25 to 30 % less )
So I have to keep the house and make a wise financial investment to offset the most possible price crash. This could be done by shortselling the stockmarket. But as you pointed out, timing is crucial and not my skill. Maybe options would be a little less risky.
My question is simply: are we sure that gold stocks is the best bet when the Dow crashs or is it that only sometime thereafter that gold soars when hyperinflation is triggered by increased money supply?
I also have to take into account that the mortgage will have to be repaid or rolled over in a few years, with then most probably much higher interest rates. So what I need is making a small fortune during the crash and repay the mortgage later.
Do Gold stocks do that for me ? So I agree and apreciate your hint to greed and fear. Thats the point I will have o think about as well, but the right hedge remains as question.
Thanks a lot for your input!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:12 - ID#28594)
SpudMaster--Well I know it is not (gold--dead)...
My point ( obviously not well crafted {:- ) ) was that "They"
feel it necessary to give us hourly bulletins as to gold's
death! Quite unnecessary. When something has actually died, we pay our hommage and move on! One must suspect that ( gasp! ) gold is NOT dead--that there are elite pockets ( e.g., BIS ) where gold is ( another gasp ) VALUED!!!

Not at all to the point, but rather fun--there was a classified ad in the Financial Times a couple of days ago for "Potato Processing Plant in Poland" sounded rather promisisng...are you interested?

Spud Master
(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:13 - ID#273112)
Bill Gates pulls rabbit out of hat...
'General Magic', well-known microscopic company, closed up +194.44% on a tiny volume of 13,438,900 shares.

sigh. gold, gold, wherefore art thou gold?

I'd just like to take this opportunity to say that I loathe & dispise the sorry, third-rate, copy-cat slothware that Microsoft flogs in its monopoly of the software world. Hail Microsloth, Tyrant of the Information Age. ( ps - turn the MS 'Flying Windows' logo on its side and you'll see something shockingly close to a certain Mark ) .

I'd also like to take this opportunity to say a few words to Apple management, past and present: "damn you ... damn you all to hell..."

thank you,
Spud, Mac user

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:14 - ID#153102)
You post. I post. Or vice versa.
I have pointed out that the Constitution says "No State shall ... make any thing but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debt." I have stated that substance given for substance received is the rule for honest exchange.
And I have posted on the consequences of a national disregard for that provision in the Constitution and that moral truth and the use of mere evidences of debt as currency.
I am not inclined to sit in passive silence when you post in contradiction.

The federal government is bankrupt and in contempt of the compact created by the States which authorized its existence. It has so been since 1860. We are in national denial about the consequences. Somehow we expect to have government according to a Constitution by a government that has already twice announced it will govern "by necessity and emergency" in bankruptcy. Uner Lincoln and FDR. This is government avowedly by no law. Necessity, emergency, and their offspring Expedience knows no law. We are totally in denial of the significance of the gold contracts which Congress entered into in the 1860's and the 1920's and repeat patently false statements like "we owe the national debt to ourselves."

Though the government be bankrupt, the law is not. What is legal when the government is bankrupt could not be legal under government constituted by law. We shall either pay honestly with gold and silver coin or go on this way into worse conditions wearing white or blue slave collars and laboring for the constantly devalued military scrip known as federal reserve notes.

And I can't stay silent about it.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:15 - ID#284246)
silver stocks
Anyone have latest COMEX stocks on silver? The latest I have is from FWN is for 27/feb.

Ref my post Feb 18 - 16:38. We bottomed out at close to $6.00 as I expected. OK - beginners luck!

Confident about the long term, I remain with more than 50% of my modest portfolio invested in physical SILVER acquired between July 97 and Jan 98.

Just an opinion for what its worth....

For the short term direction, Silver bounced a little too hard and is a little too choppy to convince me that we have started wave 1 of the next cycle. I'll watch with interest over the next week or two

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:16 - ID#57232)
Programmed cell death is called Apotosis
mozel: You made a statement 'Nature does not program death'. Actually what Nature is good at is Natural selection, and development. Apotosis and the telomere story are both examples where death is programmed by Nature. You would be amazed at what the Natural selection process can create.

Here is something else you can think about -- compare the time that human beings are supposed to have evolved from simpler organisms, and then consider the baseline mutation rate. You will find that there is a major discrepancy -- the mutation rate is much too slow. So how could Darwin be right? And, why is our death programmed at about 80-100 years or so? Why can we not live 6,000 years or more like the Bristle Cone pine? We are both eukaryotic organisms.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:17 - ID#233199)
Gold lease rates URL please??

I can't find it - could someone repost it please?

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:19 - ID#356379)
D.A. > where are you?

I miss my almost daily dose of silver insider insight.

Spud Master
(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:21 - ID#273112)
@SDRer with full-up Protactinium rounds...
rather, let us take heart that the lap-dog financial press continue to rail and shriek about gold being a 'dead asset'. The fury of their denials is in direct proportion to the threat gold presents to them & their masters: they know: when the public sees through the false promises of paper instruments, all hell gonna break loose. The market can only continue accellerating toward a titanic blow-off. I personally expect the FedGov to assert Emergency Orders and confiscate IRAs, Roth IRAs, Keogs, etc. and roll them into the 'Thing' that replaces Social Security. Believe it.

As for potato processing plants - not me! I respect plant life. Without plant life, life on Earth would be impossible! We would die.

Therefore, I honor plants by being a pure carnivore, hunting down and eating the vicious, cruel eaters of plants: bunnys, sheep, goats, cows, tapirs, tree sloths, zooplankton, ovo-lactarians and vegans. I care about the Earth!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:21 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Prometheus -- And people complain when they are down 'bucks' with gold! Unlike regular type of investments, a business is not easy to be able to walk away from when it's not fun anymore. I know people who wish they had only known what they were REALLY getting into. Better get your fishing time in now.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:25 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.85

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:25 - ID#57232)
Murphy's law
Pete: Thats great! Murphy's law says it all! The next pestilential disease we are likely to experience may occur by accident -- due to failure to use proper procedure, such as that airplane where one individual had TB and spread it all over the plane. Or the Ebola ( ? ) virus accident in Washinton DC. Whatever it was, it was deadly, but it was fortunately contained.

It turns out that our sophisticated international flights with state-of -the-art electronics use stone-age ventilation systems. So do most of our public buildings. For the sake of a horse the kindom was --- .

Sobering thought -- eg the ventilators in Philadelphia when Legionairres disease was first identified years ago.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:26 - ID#252127)
Wake up

There is no way that the present monetary/debt situation afflicting the globe can be solved.

Best advise is to own with zero debt.

Debt ridden property, companies and even countries will pass from hand to hand until no one can even conceive what the real value is.

Then some where down the line money will again be backed by substance. but the decay will start all over again, unless we have strict laws against ursury.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:31 - ID#238295)
Lease Rates
One month gold lease rate down 45 basis points today. Either more supply or less demand.

Spud Master
(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:33 - ID#273112)
@JTF & Mozel
JTF - I think what mozel meant intead of "Nature does not program death" was "Nature does not employ necrobiology".

Necrobiology is the design of biologicals to deliver or induce death for no purpose other than to kill. This is different from a sea anemone's stinging tentacles or a monitor lizard's nasty mouth microflora: both are intended to ultimately procure food.

Man's bioweapons are just designed to kill. period.

They pale in comparison to ideological warfare - to which we ahve been subjected to for ages. It's far easier to control people with cheap ideas than to poison them with NBC. Think about it. Think about how the press controls public perception of paper vs. gold.

As for why people die - no great secret: Evolution has an interest in turning over as many generations as quickly as is possible given an environment: that's how it pushes ahead with new technology, if you will.

In a food-rich enviroment, you want the parents to reproduce as quickly as possible and then die off - you DON'T want them hanging around competing with the potentially better offspring for reproductive resources ( food, shelter, mates, etc )

In a food-poor environment, you DO want the parents to last as long as possible, because it takes a LONG time to acquire the resources necessary to reproduce.

This is the unmentioned reason for life-extension observed in animals on near starvation diets ( along with the free-radical adjunct theory ) .

Spud, carnivore, destroyer of bunnys

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:40 - ID#28594)
SpudMaster--I am hearteningly gratified to know you are out there doing
your part to make the world Safe for Potatoes ( note "e" ) ...{:- )

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:41 - ID#288295)
scarface @ COMEX stocks

Check my post around 7:00 this morning. I post them daily at about this time

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:43 - ID#20748)
With XAU up .10 today, with POG down 1.75, POG is certain to move up tomorrow. A close above 301 on FRiday will open the door to 307.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:49 - ID#238295)
gold stocks and POG
NJ: POG is NOT certain to move up tomorrow, althought the odds look pretty good. Gold stock investors are supposed to have longer time horizons than futures traders. If the relative strength in gold stocks perists, it will be very bullish for POG some weeks or months down the road, but tells us little about the day to day fluctuations.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:51 - ID#339265)
The "little guy" is in no, way, shape or form invested in the silver market...even after the Buffett announcement.

My observation is technical ( the volume does not indicate little guy involvement by any means ) ...empirical ( most small investors I speak with have no concept of the POS nor any knowledge of the Buffett announcment ) ...and fundamental ( little guy participation would instigate a huge silver exploration binge...yet, such increased silver exploration as has been announced is still relatively tame ) .

Such are the ethereal perceptions of FARFEL ( the Unpronounceable )

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:54 - ID#330175)
Can't send e-mail(arrrggghhhh)-----------*go gold*
EB...Earl + Co....the rocket scientists @ the computer store screwed up my e-mail thingy and can't send any e-mail ( maybe )

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:54 - ID#153102)
Exactly so. Nature designs life. It abhors a vacuum and designs life to fill all space which are void of life. Nature's manifest intent by cycles is toward production of life, not reduction of life.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:55 - ID#339265)
...I would expect a major up-tick in "little guy" involvement as Buffett delineates the exact nature of his silver investment to the legions of Buffett disciples out there.

Be ready for takeoff!

- FARFEL ( the Unpronounceable )

(Wed Mar 04 1998 16:59 - ID#252150)
What a great example of linear thinking!
Bully Beef ( robnoel ...It's a pun on " a tall" "at all"

Steve in TO__A
(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:04 - ID#209265)
Lease rate URL & JTF
Here's the URL for lease rates:

JTF- Please don't think that I know a lot about what's going on in the markets. The metal markets are not very transparent. All us little people can do is look at the most reliable indicators of activity, use the information to make rational bets, and wait for the real background story to emerge.

When silver lease rates started moving up several months ago I had no idea why silver supplies were becoming tight, but eventually the Buffett story came out. Anyone who bought after buffett's announcement came out in the papers bought near the peak. Anyone who followed the lease rate, and who was aware that the market had a big overhang of short interest out there could have put two and two together and realized that silver lease rates going up and supply tightening would squeeze out a lot of the bears, with consequent juicy profits for the bulls. You could have bought silver at $5.30 when the writing first appeared on the wall. BTW- did I make a profit from that? No. I was hoping to buy some silver mining shares, but didn't have any cash free, and the time wasn't right to sell anything I've got. That was back in December. Just a couple of days before I figured I'd be able to liquidate something and pick up some silver stocks, the Buffett announcement came out and the mania began. I have a policy of never buying an investment that's been a big media story, and I think its value has been borne out in this case.

Silver will have it's day again, though, and this time I'm going to be ready. Note that silver lease rates of 8% or 9% are still not reaonable values for most people to make money. Silver supplies are still nowhere near being able to meet current demand.

Here's a question for anyone out there with more knowledge about Central Banking procedures than I. CB's love gold leasing because they can keep the gold on their books and not have to go to their governments for permission to do it.

People must default on these loans, though. Does anyone know what the CB's are doing when a borrower goes bankrupt, or when a metal loan is obviously going to be uncollectable? The net result of that happening is a decline in the nation's gold reserves. Are they accounting for these declines on a timely basis, or are they just letting them accumulate without reporting them, so as to not make any waves?


(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:04 - ID#153102)
@JTF I did not use any variant of the word "program". You did.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:04 - ID#222231)
I agree with you, up to a point. If all currency was coined in gold and silver, then any paper currency created to supply money demand, say M1 for the US, would have to be redeemed in gold and silver. IMHO, this would be a physical impossibility. Eventually, because of expansion of economy, the coin would be watered down as paper. The $20 St Gaudin would become the $5,000 golden eagle, or maybe the $20,000 golden eagle. Now, how many As%^$#holes do you know, unless they're dope dealers, go around carrying 20 grand in thier pockets. So the government calls in all golden eagles, melts them down, and makes a new coin ( ad infinitum ) for $20 or whatever. Lets see, 1/1000oz or 5/1000oz ( 1/200 ) coin in order to have reasonable change exchange. Pretty soon, this coin would be the size of say a grain of sand. Better yet we could use gold dust and carry scales. With the scarcity of gold and demand for money in order for the economy to grow, which it has done substantially since I was hatched, your solution does'nt make sense. Please, do'nt ask me for details as to money demand, M1, distribution in the US of A, because I have better things to do. Now, please do'nt get mad at me. Just get even!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:04 - ID#57232)
Debt deflation is the killer
Jack: I agree with you 100%. If we all had no debt ( and no margin ) , we could not have depressions, IMHO. The stock market would be able to survive much larger shocks before collapsing ( if at all ) . In 1929, as I recall - before the crash - the margin was 10%, although margins were increased immediately before the crash. Also -- if the market corrected sharply, and no one had debt, we could survive the loss without catastrophe. But -- we are now talking about borrowing money based on stock market equity. And Banks can now act as stock brokers -- perhaps there was a reason why those banking laws were passed during the great depression -- but, we seem to have forgotten, haven't we? And -- I think one can document that during that terrible depression, the average American had more savings than he/she does now. Frightening thought, isn't it -- that the next depression might actually be worse that the one in 1929. And crime rates are now much higher than they were during the peak of the depression. I know others can enlighten us much more on the topic of what lead up to the Great Depression.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:08 - ID#339265)
The governor of Portugal's Central Bank is lobbying for a mere 2% gold backing against total EU reserves. Why? Because Portugal, like Argentina, Australia, and Canada, hopes to sell most of its gold to help keep that poor little country economically solvent. Portugal sorely needs to sell off "something" to keep itself from falling into third world economic status.

The GOOD NEWS is this...Germany and France will determine the exact nature of gold support behind the EURO...not Portugal ( not in Portugal's wildest dreams!! ) .

- this assessment arrived on the wings of doves and is provided by FARFEL ( the Unpronounceable ) .

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:08 - ID#252150)
Mozel@Nature=God=Faith=The Unknowable= The Universe
Nature does'nt design or do anything; it is neither perverse nor beneficent....Nature just IS.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:10 - ID#35767)
RYO filling for poison pill with SEC to thwart takeover attempts. Rothschild making pro gold statements in Europe. Wall St frantically railing against silver "no India demand" "Buffet selling" and the latest is "Buffett will be through taking delivery soon". What do the insiders know that we do not?

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:11 - ID#28594)
This is, of course, simply co-incidence...but have a look anyway...

Stealth coins and memorial coins, gold and silver and
Interesting world, yes?

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:14 - ID#410194)
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after trading today:

Gold: Fell 96 troy ounces to 480,814

Silver: Rose 499,711 troy ounces to 90,238,809

Copper: Fell 1,243 short tonnes to 114,855

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:14 - ID#153102)
"Jack: I agree with you 100%. If we all had no debt ( and no margin ) ,
we could not have depressions, IMHO." This would be our situtation if nothing but gold and silver coins could be used as tender in payment of debt as the 1787 Constitution stipulates. There were localized effects of bank failures before 1860, but no depressions. Try to convey that to M1 fixated Pete please.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:14 - ID#288295)
I agree with you that the 'little guy' doesn't get it ( yet ) on silver. There has been no rush to my dealers for silver coins. If history is any judge of events, he ( little guy ) won't, until the story shows up on the front of every financial publication in the world as a 'sure thing buy'. Of course, at that point silver will be a 'sure thing sell' to buy whatever is cheap at the time.BTW - perhaps you need to come up with just a symbol for your identity, standing for the person once known as farfel ( THE UNPRONOUNCEABLE )

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:14 - ID#24095)
@ SnP Futures
Does anyone know why SnP futures at this hour are down sharply?

Spud Master
(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:20 - ID#273112)
You wrote: "Now, how many As%^$#holes do you know, unless they're dope dealers, go around carrying 20 grand in thier pockets."

Plenty of honest, law-abiding citizens walk around with PLENTY of cash in their pockets. It is perfectly legal.

You are the perfect parrot of the police state: if one has a lot of cash on their person, or gold, one must be a criminal.

It is also the case now: if one has hateful thoughts, you must be a ( hate ) criminal.

How easy to extend such a notion to: if one has thoughts or beliefs that conflict with the established order, one must be a criminal. So tell me, Pete, you ready to ante up like a good duckspeaker and offer to run the gaschambers and incinerators against we who assert the right to think our own thoughts?

I think George Orwell summed up your type perfectly with the words: "Orthodoxy is unconsciousness".

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:22 - ID#57232)
Only man kills for the sake of Killing!
Spud Master: Thanks for your insight -- There is a big difference between killing to eat ( survival ) , and killing for the sake of killing. And -- it is generally the unarmed civilians that get killed -- not the ones that perpetrate wars.

I read an interesting fictional story once, where if an individual tortured or otherwise injured a fellow human being, those same injuries would automatically be evident in the perpetrator. Presto -- no war, with perfect justice. Unfortunaly, in the real world, justice rarely seems evident. If I were able to live long enough, I would like our Creator to spend the time explaining to me why war is permitted, as it only seems to punish the innocent.

I would ask our Creator another question -- and that is if he/she created us, why are most of us unable to discern lies from truth?? Why is it that we gold bugs are speaking in the wilderness about truth -- be it with regard to the actions of our government or the manipulation of our money supply? Why must everyone suffer the consequences of the deception and lies of others?

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:23 - ID#153102)
It is what Nature is that I observe. I assess Nature's design and intent by the same operations of reason that I use with regard to people or animals. I discriminate.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:23 - ID#28594)
Poot Japan! Poor China! All those unspeakable trade surpluses...Woe, Woe
WHOA!!! One moment please...Who IS strong, and who is WEAK?

1997 trade surplus revised up to $40.3 billion

China's State Statistical Bureau on Wednesday revised up slightly its 1997 trade surplus to US$40.3 billion from a previous estimate of US$40 billion.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:27 - ID#28594)
PooR Japan...sorry!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:30 - ID#269245)
Spud Master & Pete
Sorry Pete, but I have to "second" everything Spud Master just wrote. I am one who has a "cash only" policy ( to include valuable coins ) . I also don't have any credit cards, never give out my SSN, and rarely carry ID. I know plenty of other honest citizens who do the same. You must live in some fantasy/TV/facist/90210/NYPD Blues world. - c

Spud Master
(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:30 - ID#273112)
@Pete again...
The real dope peddlers are the members of our government ( "There is no sexual relationship" ) , our press and our media who purvey the informational dope which clouds our reason, dulls our witt, leads our children into the vices of debt, drugs, smoking, alcohol, and Dr. Who all the while claim these things are "freedom". What a funny, upside down world!

"Drug dealers" HA! Those guys are IRRELEVANT compared to the damage done to our ethics, values and virtues by Hollywood, CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, and the former press. A weak, broken mental immune system is the perfect breeding ground for control of the asses ... i mean masses ( wink )

You must work for one of the above three institutions, or else feed-off the public-tax trough-teat. Your world ends when the false, malignant thing called paper collapses as the fraud it is - sadly taking many innocents with it.

Time to repeat that wonderful Charton Heston line again: "damn you, damn you & your ilk all to hell"

cheerio & have a nice day!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:32 - ID#222231)
This message is from M1 fixated Pete. Let's all go back to dark ages. I'm not the smartest guy in the world ( no comments please ) , but without debt, there would be no, or very, very, very, slow growth. Debt is a useful tool if used correctly ( notice I said correctly, or controlled ) . Now if you were Bill Gates, you would not need to borrow, ( I'll bet you 10 to 1 that he borrows also ) but we're not all billionaires, or are we? Are you a business man? Have you ever borrowed or used credit? If you have not, then you are one hell of a man and I congratulate and salute you.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:36 - ID#269245)
Spud: 2, Pete: 0 - Cya!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:37 - ID#222231)
clone, spudmaster
Thank you for your compliments. I've posted many of the same things you say. Why is your reaction so mean spirited? BBL.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:39 - ID#339265)

F*, The Unpronounceable.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:46 - ID#285392)
FundaMETAList regarding Aph post
The latest APH post that I have was on Sat Feb 28 1998 09:53. If this is not available I will give you the gist of the information as I have a copy. That man is good!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:46 - ID#57232)
Error noted!
mozel: If I misquoted you -- I apologize. I try very hard to only discuss the truth -- I have been trained that way as a physicist. Thank you for pointing out my error.

By the way, I wish I could say that success in life was based on always completely telling the truth. Sadly, I must say it does not. Many individuals, such as one of my relatives, do not wish to know certain truths, even though they affect their lives. My relative is not capable of accepting certain truths - a basic character flaw. So I no longer discuss the topics in question.

I think certain people also learn new truths at a certain rate -- and that rate cannot be accelerated. I think you know who I am referring to -- not you, by the way.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:47 - ID#225127)
Intel is down $10 on forcast of lower earnings

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:47 - ID#410194)
Stock market correction ahead?
S&P futures opened more than 1000 points down a few minutes ago on Axess.

The reason:

Intel announced that its 1st quarter revenues would be down about 10% ( ! ) from its 4th quarter revenues to around 6.5 billion. Intel is currently down about 10 points trading at around 76.

The stock market is due for a healthy correction anyway after about 15 consecutive record highs of the last trading sessions!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:50 - ID#269245)
I think the animosity was triggerred by personal offense to your previous question, "how many As%^$#holes do you know..." I will try to keep my retaliatory responses to myself next time in the spirit of to saving space on this forum. - c

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:52 - ID#153102)
@M1 Fixated Pete
How you can possibly imagine that borrowing debt ( federal reserve notes ) to be paid back with debt plus debt interest contributes anything to the productive labor of mankind or "growth", as you put it, is beyond me.

Do you understand double entry bookkeeping and the words assets and liabilities at all ? When your asset is debt ( federal reserve notes ) , what is a liability ?

It is investment of capital ( gold and silver coin ) in enterprises that yield return of more capital on inventions or facilities that increase production at lower cost which is economic growth. Do you think the "Dark Ages" ended in 1860 or 1933 ? Human production is going on now in spite of the debt currency system, not because of it. It's like you are saying to me, "See that fellow swimming with the rock on his back. He would sink if we took that rock away."

(Wed Mar 04 1998 17:59 - ID#269245)
Realistic & powmain
Exactly were did you get this Intel stock price correction info? It seems to me that the markets are closed. What is Axess? Are you referring to overseas markets? I am seriously missing something here! - c

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:04 - ID#255190)
There is no gold relationship.
Why is it inconceivable that gold and silver could not be used as money in replacement of paper? The paper world is entirely relative. Inflation, deflation and currency appreciation/depreciation all push the numbers used to express 'value' of things in currencies. Governments have occationally lopped 3 or 4 zeros off of the right side of the bill number ( Russia, Brazil, Argenrina as examples ) in order to facilitate its continued use.

There is no technical problem with saying the US$ is now pegged to gold at $20,000 per ounce and that the US government has bound itself to not printing any more dollars than it has gold to back it in the vault at that price. Where is the problem??? The probelm is political will ONLY. People just don't want to do that and so they don't.

Alan Greenspan was right. Nations are interested in manipulating their currencies. It is a form of relativism and theft. Well, maybe someone who has a greater vested interest in the stability of paper ( oil interests who have a tremendous amount to lose ) will do it for us, no? That is after they have cornered the gold market in physical. Not saying I expect this will happen or that I am an ANOTHER worshipper here. Just that it could happen.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:07 - ID#42365)
gold? vs paper?
your thougths make me wonder if the US really has any gold at all. they say they do, but till one actually sees it? they could say they have it and have 0 oz.??? right???

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:08 - ID#153102)
Fortune is a fickle mistress. "The race is not to the swift", etc.
But, the phrase "margin of error" applies to our individual and collective apprehension of and respect for truth at work and play. It is perilous to misapprehend or disrespect too often or too long.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:11 - ID#255190)
I am a fool.
Why didn't I recognize this before! If I had only bought Bonds @ 5.5% instead of PM's I could be making money instead of watching it slip through my fingers ( said with wicked grinny thing! ) .

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:12 - ID#338289)
snowbird: APH Feb 28 - Got it. Thanks!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:18 - ID#242249)
After years of stagnation, Japan is moving into recession. The likelihood
Japanese Economic Planning Agency Admits Hiding Evidence of Recession

According to the Kyodo News Service, the Japanese Economic Planning Agency

admitted on Monday that it had suppressed the views of economic experts who

felt that Japan was sliding into a recession. As a result, official

government confidence in the ability of Japan to weather the Asian crisis

went untempered by the much more pessimistic views of the Economic Planning

Agency's professional staff. According to the report, Yasuhiro Asami, who

heads the economic statistics division at the EPA, hid the views of his

staff from the public and government.

The Japanese government has been paralyzed by the Asian economic crisis and

has justified its paralysis by arguing that the situation is not nearly as

bad as some say. The willingness of EPA's management to publicly buttress

this view allowed political leaders to avoid the painful decisions that

other Asian nations have been forced into. In a very real sense, the

Japanese were evading the obvious. The Asian problem clearly meant that

Japan would be forced to cut back on exports into important markets, from

China to Southeast Asia. This meant that growth could not be maintained.

Since growth was already barely visible, it followed that a recession was

in the wind.

The current controversy over the suppression of economic analyses is not,

in itself, important. This is an old story in Japan. But the continued

willingness of civil servants and politicians to work together to evade

harsh realities, even in the face of economic emergency, is indeed

important, simply because it cannot go on indefinitely. Having avoided

confronting reality for nearly a decade, Japan is running out of economic

surplus to draw on. Life in Japan has been difficult in the past few

years. It is about to grow harsher. This is going to have severe

political consequences.

The willingness of the Japanese to endure hardship is well-known. The

willingness to permit face to be maintained is also well known. But in due

course, all room for maneuver is lost, and with it room for evasion. The

inability of the Japanese state to formulate a plan for even beginning to

solve Japan's problems means that a political backlash is inevitable.

Tolerating political foibles in times of plenty is much easier than

tolerating them during periods of precipitous decline.

After years of stagnation, Japan is moving into recession. The likelihood

of a quick recovery is slim. Therefore, there will be a political

reaction, and politicians and bureaucrats who evaded reality will

ultimately be held accountable. The interesting issue is not whether the

current political contraption can survive, but what forces will arise to

break it and what the new constellation of political forces will look like.

We feel that it is time to start looking beyond the immediate economic

crisis to the inevitable political reaction. What is frightening is that

in Japan, the world's second largest economy, the new political force is

not even vaguely visible. In the meantime, Japan, like Mr. Macawber, will

be waiting for something to turn up.

E-mail from STRATFOR Systems, Inc.MARCH 4,1998.

So what will be the next domino.....?

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:18 - ID#252127)
Mozel, Pete

Both are correct. Mozel wants the the coin in pocket and Pete as gold bullion backing a strong stabile money.
I'm sorry to say, that there isn't enough of the metal around to put into circulated coin, and still fewerf governments that can be trusted to safequard the value of their currency.
If a gold value based on outstanding debts were used it would put gold out of reach for normal users; on the other hand; if one oz. bought 10 Armani Suits it might be ok - or show real value.
The whole thing is very complicated, perhaps an elected US Treasury, with Treasury officials elected in each state having the right to inspect reserves -upon letter from any citizen to determine valid reserves- for currency backing. Such officials would have oversight on Congressional spending. These guys would not have it easy. They would be well payed and spitually compensated by the service they perform for the countries benefit.
There should be no federal reserve, no government bonds or the government paying interest on its own issued currency.
The government would have to pay for services with money provided from taxation and the taxpayer for specialized services rended by the government.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:20 - ID#288295)

This is true for all the central banks, I imagine..... But - I'll show you mine, if you'll show me yours! ( :^ )

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:21 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .250

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:22 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 46.47

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:24 - ID#153102)
Those who think the Ponzi scheme that goes by the phrase "the magic of compound interest" will last are in T Bills. It has lasted a long time in individual life terms, but not very long in historical terms. Anyone relying only on living memory would think themselves a fool to imagine it won't go on forever.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:29 - ID#20748)
Old Gold
Buy you a beer if POG does'nt move up tomorrow. Beck's Dark.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:29 - ID#252150)
A gloomy thought from beautiful Victoria
In the few brief seconds that the seagull described a parabola,
against an azure sky, viewed thru my bedroom window--it experienced more freedom than the vast majority of our wretched species ever will.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:30 - ID#57232)
Words of wisdom appreciated
mozel: My biggest problem is knowing how tolerant of others to be, to see their point of view. And when the lies spoken or believed are not to be accepted. Each of us lives a little bit of a lie, and tolerance must be given -- the problem is knowing when the lies are too much.

I remember being a child -- many years ago for me -- and seeing what appeared to be the truth that politicians would utter. What puzzled me was the the opposing arguments sounded just as convincing. Eventually I realized that shades of truth were usually spoken, with little regard to the facts. The skill of reliably knowing a lier when you hear one is a hard skill to learn, especially if the lier is very good. If it were, our president would not be where he is today.

What I regret about human nature is that our great leaders always seem to emerge during great crises. We would not have many of our crises if we could consistently have great ( and honest ) leaders, so that we would not generate the conditions where crises would be later be created.

Steve in TO__A
(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:35 - ID#209265)
Debt Deflation etc.
I had the privilege a few years ago of talking to a real old-timer who went through the Depression as a young man in his twenties. He said something from his experience that has since been confirmed by histories I've read.

He said the Depression could be summed up as follows: Few people had jobs, so there was little demand for products, so prices went down, so companies couldn't hire people, so there weren't many jobs- and the whole thing continued around in a vicious circle.

The collapse in demand was catastrophic, though. Why?

North Americans were responsible savers in the 1920's, but many ordinary were lured into the stock market and lost most, if not all of their savings, even if they hadn't bought stocks on margins. North American markets lost three-quarters of their value between 1929 and 1932. Unsophisticated people were buying shares in "Investment Trusts" which had a bad name until they were resurrected in the 1950's as Mutual Funds ( is any of this starting to sound familiar. )

You could have stayed out of the markets in the United States, though, and still lost all your savings. Banks had been making unwise investments, and margin calls on depositors who had made unwise investments resulted in bank runs that destroyed institutions all across the country. Hundreds of thousands of people were left with no savings whatsoever- and this put them two paycheques away from the street.

As many of these people with no savings lost their jobs in the economic slowdown that resulted from the crash, they defaulted on loans, lost their homes and joined the ranks of the hoboes, and guess what- the banks had more nonperforming loans, which resulted in more bank failures, which destroyed more peoples' savings. Everything spiralled downward in a vicious, self-feeding circle.

The economy is much like a living organism. It depends on a steady circulation of materials and energy to stay alive. People need the resources and the confidence to buy things, to perform services for others, and to build for the future, but when they're put out on the street their consumption and contributions fall almost to zero, or at least they did in the 1930's. This was why the collapse in demand was so catastrophic: job loss didn't just reduce demand in the case of people with no savings- it wiped it out.

The term Debt Deflation used by economists is a little too simplistic, to my mind. It fails to take into account the psychological factors- confidence and participation.

So how does this relate to our day & age. Well, it is obvious that welfare removes the sort of all-or-nothing aspect to job loss among people with no savings, smoothing out the effects of economic declines, but all our OCED countries are realizing that they're at the limits of their abilities to provide entitlement programs. There are a lot more people with no savings nowadays than there were in the 1920's! And guess what- many people who do have savings are setting themselves up to loose a good proportion of it in the next bear market. When that happens would any government be able to use social assistance programs to hold back the forces of panic and loss of confidence that would lead to another downward deflationary spiral? We're going to find out in time.

Here's another sobering thought, fellow goldbugs. We take comfort in the idea that you can always have a collection of gold bars or coins, and even if the currency-based economy becomes a shambles, you can always barter your gold for goods & services.

It was no accident that fascism spread all over the world in the 1930's. When people's livelihoods are destroyed they want solutions, and they want them fast. Canadian and British goldbugs were fine in the depression, but think about what happened to many Latin Americans and Europeans- their gold was simply looted, unless they had it in Switzerland, and going there to get it and bringing it back to spend could be a hazardous undertaking. Americans who had physical gold lost it in FDR's infamous confiscation if they had it stored with dealers or in safety deposit boxes. If you had it stored under a matress, you could only spend it at risk of being caught and facing felony charges. Numismatic coins were the only protection for Americans in those days, but in the case of many fascist kleptocracies collector coins represented even more of a target, since their value was that much more obvious. How's a person to know where to turn in advance?

I think there will need to be a network of people who communicate confidentially about developments as we enter the "interesting times" that Chinese people wish on their friends and enemies, acting as eyes and ears for each other.


(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:36 - ID#339265)
No need to wait any longer.

It's here.

F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:38 - ID#233199)
@F* ( The Unpronounceable ) .

...just thought I'd give teh new glyph a tryout..

Charles Keeling
(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:41 - ID#344225)
Could you please clarify your very
profound statement?

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:43 - ID#304282)
Can't wait til tomorrow
S&P 500 MAR98 1035.00 -1290
E-MINI MAR98 1035.00 -1300
JUN98 1046.50B -1250
NSDQ100 MAR98 1150.75 -3000

How's asia goin to react to this. I haven't seen limit down since october. My guess is we will see it tonight. INTC already down more than 10. Could make for an interesting ending to the week. Unemployment #'s out Friday.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:44 - ID#23782)
I watched a crow pick a french fry off the asphalt and fly up to perch on the Toy-R-Us sign today. -- Go Gold --

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:44 - ID#222231)
I do agree with you that the federal debt is out of hand. I meant to say that when one borrows in a responsible manner, and pays off that debt either thru earnings or out of pocket, then debt is not a bad thing. The government has not acted in a responsible manner, ergo the pickle we're in. Many small successful businesses would never have the oportunity to exist if they could not borrow short term or for that matter long term. We do agree on one thing, this debt burden that the government has put on us and our children, is a gross, vile dastardly ROCK ( as you said ) ,on us all while trying to swim to shore.

Of course, you and I know, that if it could be eliminated, they would start over anew and put us back in the same condition again. Such is the nature of Machevellian politicians.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:45 - ID#256254)
(Looking for Dinar!) ... or...

Ok. Let us see how this works out.

Europe is setting up their own currency. All looks to being going well as far as them starting up with the Euro on January 1, 1999. Once they go on line they will NOT be using the U.S. dollar as the main medium of exchange.

I have absolutely NO idea how many dollars are floating around Europe ( I assume that it is close to a googol ) that will be replaced by the Euro. Now if the holders of these dollars see the Euro coming in 10 months, what are they going to do with their dollars? Keep them for wallpaper? Send them to Asia? Buy something, anything?

Asia is looking to be sick of the almighty dollar and may not be welcoming as many as they once did. It is looking like the talk of currency boards and common Asian trade mediums is spooking Al, Rubin and associates. As Asia moves away from the dollar, even more dollars are put into a surplus condition.

In the U.S. , production of dollars is growing daily. The production numbers look to be without limit. The Fed comes in daily to add liquidity. The Fed looks to be buying our bonds ( bonds fall- liquidity added, coupon passes, market falls -Fed buys S&P futures ) . Where are all these dollars going? How are people going to use them?

It looks to me that the U.S. arranged the Asian currency crisis just to solve this dollar problem. One day those hard working productive Asians woke up and found that there was a run on their currencies. AND they had to get dollars to save themselves. Everyone knows how this story goes so we will skip forward.
And all is looking well for the dollar UNTIL, the Asian start getting the idea that their problems were caused by the U.S. dollar. They started talking about bypassing the dollar and using regional currencies for local trading. Then Indonesia starts talking about a currency board and the United States starts going bonkers. No longer do we see the IMF rushing over there and harassing the Indonesian government, but rather the U.S. sends it own government officials ( almost on a daily basis ) . We hear that the currency board would look to tieing currency to the dollar, but I wonder. The currency board may be looking to other alternatives.

SDRer has mentioned in the past that international companies are using the SDR instead of dollars ( avoids the pesky hedging problem ) . I suspect with all the meetings going on lately ( China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia , that the talk of another currency approach is coming to the for. A lot of Moslems live in Asia. We know that Moslems want currency stability. We know that Europe has set the direction for moving away from the U.S. dollar. I think that the United States is TERRIFIED because their scam in Asia is turning on them and the Asians are NOW looking very seriously about moving away from the dollar. I suggest that China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Indonesia, and Malaysia will be the key players in setting this new currency .

NOW what I wonder is how long will people, governments, companies, and industries hang onto their U.S. dollars when they see the incredible glut of unwanted dollars coming to the market in January 1999. As Asia moves away from the dollar will the still hang on the U.S. currency? I would be getting rid of dollars NOW. When will they?

( IMHO )

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:45 - ID#304282)
When does gold start trading again tonite?
or is it trading right now?

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:46 - ID#153102)
Is it not obvious by now that the debt will never be paid ? Can you ever pay debt with debt ? If you think so, tell me how.

The fact that you are living under a lawless government ruling by necessity and emergency in bankruptcy apparently does not faze you in the least. You have more nerve than I. Or your chains sit lightly on you.

When you have the gold and silver coin in your pocket, they have to have your consent to tax, spend, and borrow. When they have the gold, they don't need your consent for squat. When the collectors have to come out of the castle to collect, the mood of the people has significance. When they can sit in the castle and take it out of accounts, the consent of the governed may be safely disregarded. The issue is not about M1 or growth or backing of paper. It's about who controls the purse strings of government: the people or the politicians.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:48 - ID#317193)
Oh Almighty GOD ( please insert your favorite diety ) if my April calls are for naught might I beseach You to run the price of gold down for one day ( probably 3/13 ) and provide sufficient liquidity ( this a request for a one year interest free loan ) to allow this person of simple thoughts to purchase a bit more physical gold. P.S. Please do NOT hit my stops on my June and December contracts and please run up the price ASAP thereafter. Thanks,your devoted servant-well most of the time anyway-Tom

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:49 - ID#339265)
...and turn it to gold and silver.

The time has arrived.

It's here.

F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:49 - ID#57232)
Addendum to previous post
mozel: Strange as it may sound, in my case, I am probably too tolerant of others deceptions -- I often try to hard to see anothers point of view, only to regret that later. Flexibility has made me a success at my profession, but it makes the decision of when to disagree with others much harder. Defining everything in terms of black and white is much easier on the surface, but that can also cause problems in human relations.

What I am learning as a manager of people ( not what I was originally trained to do ) is that the best way to get others to work eagerly for you is to see their reality, and tell the part of the truth that they understand. That is not the same as telling a lie. But it reguires much more effort and skill than treating everything as black and white.

For an example that relates to gold and gold investing, I have long ago given up on aggressively convincing others to invest in precious metals or gold. Each of my associates has to decide for themselves. I must sense when they are ready to accept information. It is also the same way with truth in other parts of life, such as politics. But, in my little part of the world, nearly everyone I know thinks our president is a lier. A year ago, that would have not been true.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:50 - ID#227238)
Gold backing "stable money"??
Jack: I missed the exact context of "gold backing" but if what was implied, by the statement, refers to the US experience from the 30s to the '70s .... forget it. That was a con as well. Gold conversion was freely available to all comers - except Americans.

If a currency is not freely convertible to specie, by all comers ( including you and me ) , on demand, it is just another governmental scam. Free conversion, on demand, is the disciplinary mechanism that govts wish to avoid. With it, the people have their avowed masters by the gonies. Without free conversion it becomes but another sad illusion.

If a govt states clearly that a currency is 100% backed by gold and yet forbids conversion ..... of what use is the backing to holders of the currency??? More, where is the discipline to maintain a stable currency? For under those circumstances, they can clearly print as much money as they do now.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:50 - ID#390249)
Bullish statement on ECB gold
Check out Kaplan's site - very interesting comments re ECB potential gold holdings.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:51 - ID#304282)

Intel is one of the best tech companies around. If their revenues are down 10% from the last quarter what does that say about the rest of the techs? Notice the weaker orders for the box makers. Look for downgrades sector wide tomorrow. This may end the lies about asia not being a big problem. GO GOLD!!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:54 - ID#24095)
@ overseas markets
Early returns from this hour Aussie All Ords down nearly two per cent...New Zealand down over one per cent

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:56 - ID#304282)
How about the crisis was arranged as the first part of a worldwide collapse of all currencies. This would condition the world to accept a one world currency as predicted in Bible.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 18:57 - ID#348129)
Tomorrow could be a rout on the Nasdaq.
Stocks like Dell have had astronomical rises, and all it does is assemble computers - it has no product of its own.
PC's here in Canada have been plummeting in price, and I just can't believe that these high techs can maintain these levels.
This is a suckers market.............

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:02 - ID#23195)
I am not an expert that is why I prefer to read your opinions instead
of giving my own. ( silence is gold ,talk is silver )
I do have a question for Silver Baron:are your predictions on gold still
as optimistic on gold as in 1997??
What is your opnion on Freegold ( FSCNY )

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:02 - ID#304282)
CNBC just said this QTR would come in around .70 to .74

I thought the consensus is 93 cents ...
That is 20 cents short ...

Intel Now at $74/sh.eom

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:04 - ID#288295)
how fast can farfel buy gold and silver....

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:04 - ID#153102)
@Steve in To @Pete
"North Americans were responsible savers in the 1920's." Substantiate that assertion.
I don't think you can. Most North Americans were "buying on time" in the 1920's and borrowing to speculate.

Most North Americans could see that there was no percentage in being a saver in the 1920's. Just like now.

@Pete You have not yet disciminated in your mind between borrowing and being responsible to investors for a return on their invested capital. You do not yet understand that debt cannot be paid with debt or the significance of bankruptcy for a constitutional form of government. You just keep repeating the politically correct thing to say. Because, I suspect, deep down you just think you can have something for nothing. Well, you can by making another your slave, by mortgaging the unborn. It's not the politicians who are Machiavellian. Go look in the mirror.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:07 - ID#348129)
So they predicted .93 cents and we are only getting .70 .
Find me some rope, time to string up some of them hot shot, anal ists..

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:07 - ID#372344)
Heard on the Street....Dow....Gold....Oil.....
Intel after the market closed is to report much lower than expected
earnings and as a result Intel is trading after hours down $14 dragging
many oither Tech stocks with it. Many other earnings for this quarter are due out in the next few days so the Dow IMHV is due for at least a 10% correction here.....
As I suggested in mny last post the start of another"anti Gold" campaign
which has so far held Gold below 300 but not for long. Gold NEEDS
this "loss of confidence" of paper to attack and convincingly cross
the 300 mark which will happen in the next 2-3 weeks.
The US$ vs Yen WAR is far from over and the Suharto
"Bomb" is about ready to explode on the US$.....Oil minister are preparing to meet on or about March 16, Venezuela a US "pupet"
first saifd it would not attend now saying it will attend, but the BIG players
Saudis and Iran I hear are looking to cut world Oil production, so I
would look for higher Oil prices sooner than expected....

stay tuned....

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:08 - ID#254110)
One man's treasure....
Hi all - just lurking. Ive been following todays discussions and got the impression were like vultures. We seem to have a certain knowledge that if things go really wrong with the worlds economy we are going to be smiling with our little stashes of PMs. Unfortunately for me I remember way back in the late fifties my dad had a friend who had his basement full of bicycles and trundle sewing machines because these things will be just like gold when the bigun hits. He eventually moved to some safer part of the world ( The Faulklin Islands I think ) and I often wonder if his basement is still full of that junk or weather the Argentineans confiscated it during their invasion?

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:09 - ID#317193)
I know you not nor you me. I have in the past read your posts with interest. I find myself passing over your posts as of late due to a lack of positive content. Humor is not a four letter word. Your intellect is evident-there must be some hope in this world or some thought that can bring a smile to the face of the readers of your posts. Take offense if you must but simply ask if the person you see in the mirror has smiled lately-if not,give that person a reason to smile. I still enjoy some of your THOUGHTS. Look forward to reading all of them in the future. Tom

Charles Keeling
(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:09 - ID#344225)
@ The Scene
Where can I buy S & P puts this time of

FARFEL Do you have a brokerage account in

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:13 - ID#256254)
Date: Wed Mar 04 1998 18:56
tricky ( A.Goose ) ID#304282:

You may be correct. I am sure the U.S. was looking for that result, but looks like that may be the result. I feel very comfortable in saying that the Moslems are very interested in setting up a world wide currency. They seem to be talking to many key players.

Could be.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:13 - ID#222231)
Steve in To_A
Well said. I know, I was there.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:15 - ID#153102)
You can be a completely modern success if you only tell yourself and others what they want to hear.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:15 - ID#348129)
@Personally im begginging to warm up to the Euro - if we have 15% or more in Gold reserves......
From Kaplan:
Charles von Arentschildt, Deutche Bank AG managing director for commodities, stated on Wednesday that the incentive for the planned European Central Bank to hold a relatively large proportion of reserves of gold had been grossly underestimated by the market. According to Mr. Arentschildt, "We believe that the ECB will be biased toward holding a relatively large accessible amount of reserves as they build confidence in the Euro."

Mark Fellows, mining analyst for UK-based mineral economics consultancy Brook Hunt, said Wednesday morning that as long as the price of gold remains below $350 per ounce, the western world could lose about 200 tonnes of new production by the year 2001. According to Mr. Fellows, "It would appear that many of the projects currently in development will not make good returns at gold prices below $350. My conclusion is that many of them, possibly amounting to 200 tonnes of new production, will not be developed at current price levels."

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:16 - ID#256254)
Sorry mistyped.

"was looking " should be "was NOT looking"

better go rest.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:17 - ID#341189)
I've never seen the Nasdac on Globex down 30 before. Is that the limit?

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:18 - ID#372344)
@ SP now DOWN 12 points...Gold up 0.30

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:19 - ID#304282)
30 is the limit
15 on the s&p and e-mini

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:19 - ID#390249)
PPT's strategy - read DA KINE's 20:57 yesterday
Charles Keeling - before you buy S&P puts, you might want to read DA KINE's post of 20:57 yesterday. The government is bound to step in against any major drop. How can you lose in this market? The government won't let it fall.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:21 - ID#288295)
I do not know this company ( Freegold ) . Perhaps someone else can help you with it.As for predictions, I ( personally ) do not recall having made any on gold. The number of variables is too large, I think, for an accurate forecast by anyone, except accuracy by luck. On a strictly technical basis, $340/oz will be a good test - I agree with Nick@C that if we are not able to penetrate this level, we are likely see new lows in gold. On a fundamentals basis, I think that the right circumstances could push gold to an unbelievable value - although 1999 seems more likely ( to me ) for that than this year, because of the Y2K effect following a possible stock market and dollar collapse. All this is only conjecture on my part.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:22 - ID#341189)

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:23 - ID#256254)
(If the dollar is so darn strong why can't we get more goods from Asia for less bucks???
Wednesday March 4, 6:54 pm Eastern Time

Japan Feb first 20 days trade surplus up 218% y/y

TOKYO, March 5 ( Reuters ) - Japan's customs-cleared trade surplus rose 218.0 percent to 612.04 billion yen in the first 20 days of
February, compared with a revised surplus of 192.46 billion yen in the same period last year, the Finance Ministry announced on Thursday.

Free-on-board ( FOB ) exports rose 7.9 percent from a year earlier to 2.72 trillion yen, while cost, insurance and freight ( CIF ) imports fell
9.5 percent to 2.11 trillion yen.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:25 - ID#24095)
@INTC warning!
Intel Warning Seens As 'Serious Blow' To Tech Stocks

By Christopher Grimes

NEW YORK ( Dow Jones ) --Citing weaker PC demand than it had expected, Intel Corp. ( INTC ) lowered its revenue outlook for the first quarter.
And analysts said they expect Thursday to be a messy day for technology stocks, given Intel's bellwether status.
"Clearly this is going to be a serious blow to tech stocks," said Drew Peck, an analyst at Cowen & Co. "It's a real big hit" to Intel.
Intel said first-quarter revenue would decline by about 10% from the $6.5 billion it earned in the fourth quarter. It also said profit margins would decline in the first quarter to about 53%. The company's profit margins, or net sales after subtracting the cost of goods, for all of 1997 averaged about 60%.
Intel released the news after the close of the New York Stock Exchange Wednesday.
Intel also said it expected to take a one-time charge of about 9 cents a share for its recently approved acquisition of Chips & Technologies Inc.
Peck said Intel has had to cut chip prices faster than in the past to keep up with the increasing demand for less-expensive PCs.
"Unit demand for PCs is OK, but one would expect it to be much stronger given the price declines," he said. "Prices are going down but unit sales aren't going up enough to offset" the impact.
Peck said analysts would probably have to lower their earnings estimates for Intel. Before the annoucement, Intel was expected to earn 93 cents a share in the first quarter, which ends in March, according to a consensus estimate by First Call Corp.
Peck, eyeballing the company release, said he expected to lower his estimate to the "vicinity" of 70 cents a share.
-By Christopher Grimes; 201-938-5253

"Dow Jones News Service"
"Copyright ( c ) 1998, Dow Jones & Company, Inc."

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:25 - ID#153102)
Having extricated myself from the mire of sexism on another day, here am I accused of being over head over heels in the muck of pessimism. Sorry not to have given you any pleasure in perusal lately. It's a cruel world.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:26 - ID#339265)
You can step can step back...
you can step can step left...

But there is no escape...

It's here.

F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:26 - ID#57232)
Deflation and Debt deflation
Steve in TO: Thank you for your incisive insights on the great depression. You are right that indebtedness is not the exclusive key to the cause of the great depression, though I would guess why many of those faithful, honest savers lost their savings account was because the banks were loaning too much money to others who were indebted. Perhaps much of the blame should be placed on the banks that overused credit.

The bottom line I think here is that the fundamental conditions we have now are actually worse than the conditions leading up to the great depression of 1929. I find it frightening indeed that virtually noone in authority is publically concerned. Are the 'acquisitors' just stashing assets away for their own benefit, and saying nothing?

We may only need a 'nudge' to go into a depression that will make the 'great depression' look like a picnic. When it is our turn, will the SEAsians help us out with any more competence than the IMF is showing right now with SEAsia? I sure hope that for the sake of the world economy that they set up a gold-backed currency based on that 1990 University of Warwick Economic symposium -- ASAP. A good second choice would be a currency basket.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:26 - ID#317193)
Thank you. Tom

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:28 - ID#222231)
ALL Japan on the rocks, Dow to follow tomorrow
Japan-down 200 pts on the open
S&P futures down 11.60

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:28 - ID#269409)
DOW correction....Silver
If there is a big correction tomorrow, we'll have instant evidence of the effect of a stock downturn on POG, as was being discussed earlier today. IMHO, very little effect in POG even if we have a major downturn in DOW.

Now, can anyone elaborate on why COMEX inventory rose today? What is happening with Buffet's March deliverable 40 mill ounces? Is today's rise a simpe matter of distribution, or could it be that the first fruits of increased Silver refining, due to $7.00+ bounce, are starting to reveal themselves?

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:36 - ID#20748)
30 is the limit down for Globex.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:37 - ID#23195)
european cb
To Silverbarron thank you for your comment.
I agree that there will be a test for gold in the near future esspecially
when the EU CB goldreserves will be known.
Do you think that the EU CB will put its reserves in US dollars and thus
depend on the US economy ( Which does not seem to be the goal of the EU!! )
Or do you think they will put their reserves in gold and a basket of currencies ?
As to Freegold maiby John Disney could give me some advice

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:38 - ID#199183)
Charles Keeling: I bought 1/4 of a position in Spoos a little while ago at 1036. If I HAD any puts, I'd sure sell you some.: )

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:39 - ID#20748)
Trying again.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:39 - ID#57232)
Going home to see 'real boss'
mozel: You do have a sense of humor! Outside our little virtual world of Kitco, truth is generally not a matter to investigate. It is part of human nature to accept the words of leaders without question, and miss the deception, which can be very subtle. However those that lie find that they need to tell more lies to cover the lies already said. Eventually the house of cards come crashing down -- in a nonlinear, catastrophic fashion. That is why -- most of the time -- gold is not a good investment -- even if very very long term it is. Gold is the anchor of truth for our currencies, because it cannot be corrupted. I wish we had another truth anchor like this for our politicians.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:41 - ID#20748)
Didn't you say you may be wrong, ONCE.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:45 - ID#20748)
There is no denying though the market is very strong and this is not the 'one' time when you may be wrong. Jerry Favors for one maintains the market would go much higher in this burst up.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:46 - ID#339265)
I SEE BLOOD RUNNING ON WALL STREET... money mangers scurry around desperately looking for transfusions of gold and silver.

F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:46 - ID#57232)
Market Rally -- how much longer?
Oldman: You have been right on the money with our market rally. How much longer can this go on? Is AG really that afraid to pull in the reins?

I would think he would be worried about a market bubble forming, and a a crash in 1999-2000. What do you see over the next few months -- the next year?

By the way, I am too much of a gold bug to invest genrally in these etheric equities -- I am not experienced enough to day trade, so I only watch your moves with respect. But I am not afraid to invest in gold stocks, defense stocks, or oil stocks per se. Would you agree with me that commodities and gold are about to move up?

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:46 - ID#288295)
werner @ european cb
I would imagine the basket of ( major trading partners ) currencies + a small percentage in gold....Certainly they will not put all their reserves in dollars - central bankers may be stupid, but not that stupid.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:46 - ID#199183)
NJ: I'll surely be wrong at the TOP. When the top comes.: )

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:46 - ID#304282)
30 is the limit for GLOBEX 24 hour trading. It is not the limit for daily trading.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:50 - ID#28594)
A. Goose, hissing around the circle...
You are asking some very "mean-sprited" questions! {:- )
When "They" tell you the dollar is Strong, can't you just
believe it? Go along, get along? My goodness, next thing we know, you'll be suggesting we buy gold!

Mike Stewart
(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:52 - ID#270253)
Free State was until recently the largest gold producer in South Africa and possibly, the world. It is to be merged along with Western Deep Levels and Western Areas into Vaal Reefs. This will be renamed Anglogold.

Historically, South African Gold issues have been highly leveraged to the price of gold. During a bull market in bullion they can easily triple in value within a year or two. These issues also pay out most of their profits as dividends. These vary with the price of gold, but are substantial. These are fascinating stocks that can be your best trade or worst nightmare. I have experienced both over the last 13 years.

In the 1970's the South Africans increased by about ten fold, lost it all quickly and then did it again into 1980. If we have an explosive gold move, these stocks will go wild.

Anglogold is a conservative way to hold South Africans. ( an oxymoron?? )

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:53 - ID#20748)
Correct. NASDAQ has NO curbs or circuit breakers like the NYSE. That is what makes tomorrow interesting. Intel being the 'mother' of all high tech stocks.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:54 - ID#57232)
Market Downturn and gold up or down?
LGB: I would agree with you that with a 'small' correction, gold and gold bullion will not go down. And -- the more uncertainty in the equity markets, the more likely gold/gold stocks will go up.

But -- in a major crisis -- gold will go down in price. Our clever AG will be at work behind the scenes, trying to hold everything together, IMHO.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:54 - ID#339265)
Does anybody doubt that "It's Here?"

F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:57 - ID#20748)
My last post is officially canceled : )

(Wed Mar 04 1998 19:59 - ID#23195)
To Mike Stewart ..Thank you very much for your comments

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:05 - ID#199183)
How long, O Lord, How long?
JTF: As long as the Klintonista regime is gaining strength every day, the party will not end. The present unpleasantness will set up a huge buy in a day or 2, probably in the morning. I own very little of the "stock market" as most folks think of the stock market. No INTC,DELL,KO,MSFT,GE, etc. In the last couple of weeks I have bought several natural resources stocks, paper stocks, and steel stocks. That's where the value is now. I now own, among others, BHP, AR,HM, ABX, PCH,W, BCC, X, NX, AS, etc. I TRADE the SPOOS, both position trades and day trades. I am long from 1/26 in a position trade, and long 1/4 my usual position from earlier tonite for a day trade.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:06 - ID#225273)
Market Comments
To all:

I remain convinced that the precious metals markets turned and began the second leg up last week. It was imperceptible on Wed-Thur. But by Friday, everyone could see it. We've now had two or three days of pullback and the question is: "Will tomorrow be the day?"
A lot of gold shares ended at or near their high of the day, like ABX, HM, AEM. ( By the way, HM is standing there like a stone wall. It has made no move to fill the gap left in its chart last Friday. It's uncanny and this shows tremendous underlying strength in the stock. Also, since HM is highly leveraged to the gold price  for a senior  perhaps this is cluing us that gold will be very strong soon. )
Gold made a turn in mid-Jan from $277.50 or so. It rallied nearly $30. The three-week pullback dropped it $12. Last week it started back up. So here's the call; going out on a limb. Gold will rise above its 200-day MA at $312.71 by next Wednesday, March 11. And starting tomorrow is as good a time as any, as far as I'm concerned.
The XAU has not been able to close Friday's gap. Perhaps tomorrow it will make one more try early in the day: then we're off and running. The high for the year in the XAU is 79.01. Presently, it's at 73.99, which is 5.02 points down. The 79.01 high will be taken out by March 11 also.
ABX has not been able to close its Friday gap, either. After another try to day, it closed on its high; short-term bullish. I think it's ready to go. The price is 19 3/16. The high for the year is 20 3/8. The inability to close gaps on this chart tells me there's a lot of strength under it. ABX should move to at least 23 before any significant resistance is met.
HM has closed at 10.00 for four days in a row. This means while other gold stocks have been retracing last week's gain, HM has remained steady. The high for the year is only 10 1/4. The Dec 97 high of 10 3/4 should also be taken out easily. There is resistance at 12 1/8; we should see a test of that soon.
The U.S. dollar, closing at 99.99, is only .61 points away from last week's high. If it can climb over this 100.60 level, then I think a new upleg has begun. But I don't think it will. As gold is retracing its breakout, the dollar is retracing its breakdown. I look for a turnaround in both, possibly tomorrow. And if not tomorrow, then very soon thereafter.
There's nothing new to report in silver, platinum, or palladium, except that CDE rose 1/8 today while SSC was unchanged and HL fell 1/8. CDE's chart looks the best and it has performed well so far this year.
Bema Gold was down all day and then snapped to attention to close unchanged on both AMEX and Toronto. Tomorrow should see follow-through to the upside. The bears have taken their turn.
I'm going to look at the charts on the broader stock markets a little later. If I see anything there, I'll post it later tonight.

Good trading,

The Preacher

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:08 - ID#284255)
Good for a laugh
Once upon a time in the kingdom of Heaven, God went missing for seven
days. Eventually, Michael the archangel found him. He inquired of God,
"where were you?".

God sighed a deep sigh of satisfaction and proudly pointed downwards
through the clouds; "Look son, look what I've been making".

Archangel Michael looked puzzled and said, "what is it?"

God replied, "it's another planet but I'm putting LIFE on it. I've named
it earth and there's going to be a balance between everything on it. For
example, there's North America and South America. North America is going
to be rich and South America is going to be poor, and the narrow bit
joining them - that's going to be a hot spot. Now look over here. I've
put a continent of white people in the north and another one of black
people in the south."

And then the archangel said, "and what's that long white line there?".

And God said "ahhh that's the land of the long white cloud - Aotearoa,
New Zealand - that's a very special place. That's going to be the most
glorious spot on earth; Beautiful mountains, lakes, rivers, streams, and
an exquisite coast line. These people here are going to be modest,
intelligent and humorous and they're going to be found travelling the
world. They'll be extremely sociable, hard working and high achieving.
And I'm going to give them this superhuman, undefeatable rugby team which
will be blessed with the most talented, and charismatic specimens on the
planet, and will be admired and feared by all who come across them."

Michael the Archangel gasped in wonder and admiration but then seeming
startled proclaimed: "Hold on a second, what about the BALANCE, you said
they're was going to be a balance...

God replied wisely.... "Wait until you see the neighbours I'm going to
give them!"

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:13 - ID#20748)
U.K. has been removed from Europe. Maybe something to do with the E.M.U.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:14 - ID#426220)

sharefin: Forgive my geographical ignorance, but is NEW ZEALAND
sooo beautiful?? Does it have tropical areas?

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:14 - ID#269245)
bye, bye Dow!
Oldman, I beleive your prayers have been answered. Let's see here, Some lyrics come to mind:

Long you live, high you fly,
Only if you ride the tide;
But riding on the biggest wave,
You race towards an early grave.
- Roger, Floyd

So be it. - c

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:17 - ID#20748)
My 20:13
Try it the old fashioned way.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:24 - ID#199183)
clone: Do you REALLY believe the greatest bull market in history ended today, with Mother Merril, Goldie, Solly, and the rest of the Boyz panicking and selling out wholesale during the first 10 minutes of the globex session? I beg to differ. That was not the Big Boyz running for the exits after hours today. The Big Boyz will be there in the morning buying the 1030's, 1020's, and, if there is enough panic, the 1010's. It'll end, alright, but not when Joe Sixpak can point to the headlines and say,"There is the reason the bull market ended today." Never happened that way, never will. Look at 5/29/97 and 5/30/97to see what happens when a bull gets hit by bad news. Look at gold in '80, the Yen in '95 to see how a great bull ends. Keep your powder dry. Gone from here.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:24 - ID#410114)
Canadian Dollar
The Canuck buck is currently up 17 ticks. If it keeps moving up, the implications for the PMG is positive

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:27 - ID#284255)
Haiku - good for another laugh
here are some haikus based on Wintel error-messages.
Seeing my great fault
Through darkening blue windows
I begin again
- - - - - - - - - - - -
The code was willing,
It considered your request,
But the chips were weak.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
A file that big?
It might be very useful.
But now it is gone.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Errors have occurred.
We won't tell you where or why.
Lazy programmers.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
wind catches lily
scatt'ring petals to the wind:
segmentation fault
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Three things are certain:
Death, taxes, and lost data.
Guess which has occurred.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Everything is gone;
Your life's work has been destroyed.
Squeeze trigger ( yes/no ) ?
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Server's poor response
Not quick enough for browser.
Timed out, plum blossom.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Chaos reigns within.
Reflect, repent, and reboot.
Order shall return.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Login incorrect.
Only perfect spellers may
enter this system.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Printer not ready.
Could be a fatal error.
Have a pen handy?
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Windows NT crashed.
I am the Blue Screen of Death.
No one hears your screams.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
This site has been moved.
We'd tell you where, but then we'd
have to delete you.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
ABORTED effort:
Close all that you have.
You ask way too much.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
First snow, then silence.
This thousand dollar screen dies
so beautifully.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
With searching comes loss
and the presence of absence:
"My Novel" not found.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
The Tao that is seen
Is not the true Tao, until
You bring fresh toner.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
The Web site you seek
cannot be located but
endless others exist
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Stay the patient course
Of little worth is your ire
The network is down
- - - - - - - - - - - -
A crash reduces
your expensive computer
to a simple stone.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Yesterday it worked
Today it is not working
Windows is like that
- - - - - - - - - - - -
You step in the stream,
but the water has moved on.
This page is not here.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
No keyboard present
Hit F1 to continue
Zen engineering?
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Out of memory.
We wish to hold the whole sky,
But we never will.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Having been erased,
The document you're seeking
Must now be retyped.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
To have no errors
Would be life without meaning
No struggle, no joy.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:28 - ID#255217)
Confiscation of PM's ???
I notice from time to time that there is mention by various Kitcoites of conditions existing in the aftermath of the currency collapse and speculation as to the vulnerability of those possessing PM's. I have pondered this situation and have a few random thoughts.

That there will be open confiscation of PM's from individuals is almost universally assumed. I am not totally convinced that this will actually come to pass, although I would certainly admonish anyone having PM's to be prudent in their dealings and exercise extreme caution in disclosing the fact. I don't know if pre-1933 U.S. gold coins would be exempted in the exreme case of confiscation or not. Government in its desperation to survive can be capable of extreme measures. I'd hate to bet the farm on exemption of certain gold coins over others, just because of a few numbers or even a different design.

That there would be a black market in gold and silver coins is almost a 100% certainty, as well as a black market or at minimum a barter market in almost all goods and commodities. AND EVERYONE WOULD PARTICIPATE! Because everyone would want to survive ( or Prosper ) as best they could.

There would also be a great moral indignation against HOARDERS and HOARDING ( witness WWII ) , with perhaps strong penalties for offenders. Remenber the 70's, when people looked at you suspiciously if you mentioned you were going on a long vacation in your car? Fist fights broke out at service stations with long lines of cars waiting to gas up . And there were limits on the amount of gas you could buy. And all those little facts are TRIVIAL compared to what could happen in a REAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE! NO JOBS! Supermarkets half empty or TOTALLY EMPTY.

Think about these things when you pat yourself on the back for having the foresight to stash away gold and silver against this very day. I do. And I don't want to become a target for some poor sob who can't feed his family or worse, some looney with no moral inhibitions about anything, including murder for the thrill of it after he's taken whatever you might have of any value. And if you think I am being extreme, or morose I feel sorry for you. I don't enjoy thinking thinking about these sorts of things, I am just trying to anticipate the future. I hope NONE of these things ever come to pass!!!! Go gold! Go silver! Far better to have em and never need em than to NEED em and not have em.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:34 - ID#20748)
You may be having a party but every passing week is adding a year on the face of your leader.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:35 - ID#339265)
@OLDMAN...IN AN EXISTENTIAL WORLD... the one we live in, there need not be any rules or scientific formulae in which things begin or end. Charts are meaningless when random chaos appears.

So load up on your Metamucil.

It's here.

F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:36 - ID#284255)
Yes it is!

Yes, it's a stunning country.
It's like the whole of OZ compressed into a small island.
Absolutely georgeous.
Go and have a look.

That does'nt explain why I live in the nth of OZ.
Nor why many kiwi's choose to live outside NZ.

Maybe we ain't smart enough to stay at home.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:38 - ID#20748)
Old Gold Repeating my 18:49
Buy you a beer if POG does'nt move up tomorrow. Beck's Dark.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:39 - ID#298259)
more good news about Intel's drop...not just an Asia problem
Intel ( INTC ) Update: Intel did not specifically note its earnings expectations for Q1, but based on the $650 mln revenue shortfall and its gross margins, we can expect analysts' estimates to come down about
$0.20 from the current First Call consensus of $0.93. Other bad news: this Q1 shortfall was not just an Asia story; Intel cited weakness in Europe and the Americas as well. And still more bad news, margins
fell to 53% in Q1. In January, Intel said that margins were "expected to be down a few points from 59 percent" in Q4 -- the decline to 53% sounds like more than a "few points." While many will be quick to note that Q1 is typically weak for Intel, it is not this weak. In the last three years, revenues have always risen sequentially from Q4 to Q1; this year they will fall 10%. Even year/year trends look ugly -- revenues will be down over 9% year/year in Q1; from 1995-97, year/year revenue growth averaged 30%. One positive ( or not so negative ) note: Intel said that expenses will be about 5% higher than their January estimate, but this increase is due entirely to a nonrecurring charge related to the Chips & Technologies acquisition.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:42 - ID#348169)
@vronsky and Sharefin!
vronsky - old buddy, I believe that sharefin was trying to egg on his neighbours - those repugnent Aussies! And YES! I do believe that N.Z. has a range of climatic zones that would make us N.A.'s VERY jealous.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:44 - ID#25588)
SnP & metals
SnowBird - The SnP could be bottoming as I write. Dow could easily be down a 100 off the opening. I doubt if we'll get down to 8300, you may want to buy back your calls in the morning. The market is still on track for 9000+. The XAU seems to be holding up well which should limit any downside in the metals, short term its a flip. As far as a head and shoulders pattern in the gold, one would have to have an active imagination. I can't see a pattern like that and in general I find H&S patterns just about useless for recognizing potential market turns.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:44 - ID#298259)
Other tech stocks following Intel's lead down
After Hours Trading Update: Intel has now dropped to 74 on Instinet. here's a list of current quotes with the NY close in parentheses: DELL 133 ( 138 7/8 ) , IBM 99 ( 102 1/16 ) , CPQ 28 ( 29 1/2 ) , TXN 52 1/2 ( 55 ) , MU 33 3/4 ( 35 5/8 ) , MSFT 79 1/2 ( 82 5/16 ) .

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:55 - ID#341189)
I'm with you on the Canadian dollar and gold. Now if we could just get the Ausie to move up.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:56 - ID#269245)
Your comments are well received. I want you to know that my little verse was not directed at you, but at the Dow. I do think Intel will really shake the market - then again so do you. If I had a little more faith in the stock market, I too would be invested entirely in natural resource stocks. However, I do not have enough experience in stocks to justify such an investment. I definately would not be in high-tech. Who wants to buy a computer in a recession, anyway! - c

Bully Beef
(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:57 - ID#259282)
Co-incidentally my 13:41 post forsaw the effect of poor profits.
Wow I really know stuff. I'm a great sourc of info....not!!!!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 20:58 - ID#238295)
stock market
OLd Man: Agree that this probably is just another correction, although you can never be 100% certain. During this bull whenever stocks have gone dowd hard on some obvious piece of bad news, it turned out to be a buying opportunity.

The time to really worry is when stocks start going down hard for no apparent reason. But we will have to see how strongly the market bounces back before we can say for sure whether this is just another correction or the beginning of the big bear. If just a correction, Dow 9000 won't be long in coming.

Preacher: Very informative technical analysis of the gold stock action.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:00 - ID#197311)
N Z small Island ?
wow I'm tempted to pop in the cd atlas,I live on the Big Islad
of Hawaii,7 differnt climate zones 2 moutains over 13700 feet
and I always thought N Z islands were huge compared to us,
Are you talking about a smaller Island other than the main
ones?Anyway will check it out maybe have a steinlager,
from Island to Island over and out,almost P.S.
remember in oct. market on open next day after crash?
IBM micosoft all those guys bought millions of their own
stock and they came out smelling like roses,so I don't see
them panicing off the bat ,first they will buy back their
own,it will take more than a 1 day drop to shake this bull,

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:00 - ID#194311)
Dinar is served in Indonesia?
Islamic banks offer to help tide Indonesia over crisis

JAKARTA, March 4 ( AFP ) - A global panel of more than 40 Islamic
banks has offered to help tide Indonesia over its worst economic
crisis in decades, especially in easing credit constraints for local
traders, a report said Wednesday.
Representatives from the International Association of Islamic
Banks would arrive in Jakarta next month to hold talks with Islamic
intellectuals and government officials on specific assistance that
would be provided, the Bisnis Indonesia daily reported.
Confidence in the ability of companies in Indonesia, the world's
most populous Moslem nation, to pay bills has fallen with the
Indonesian rupiah's 70 percent plunge against the US dollar.
As a result, many foreign exporters refuse to recognise letters
of credit from Indonesian banks, choking off supplies of certain
goods. The letters facilitate imports on credit.
"The association, which has more than 40 member banks, is very
serious in helping Indonesia overcome the economic crisis it is
facing now," Muchrim Hakim, a regional official from the
association, was quoted saying.
Muchrim said the Dubai Islamic Bank, for example, had offered
funds for exporters facing problems importing raw materials used in
The bank was prepared to establish credit facilities of up to
five million dollars per Indonesian client to help exporters cope
with imports of raw materials, he said, adding the bank could be
flexible on its terms and conditions.
Muchrim said there was great scope for Indonesian goods in the
vast Islamic markets, which he added had not been full tapped by
local companies.

The Hatt
(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:03 - ID#294232)
JTF You are so right!
Any serious weakness in the Dow will result in a serious attack on the price of gold. The last thing Greenspan wants is the market to take its cue from a rising gold price! If we see some serious downside it will be very interesting to listen to our friends on CNBC. Anything over 150 points and they start to mumble big time!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:04 - ID#238295)
gold action
NJ: Gold now up slightly on access, so you may well be correct about tommorrow. But the weak action in Asian markets is a definite negative for the yellow.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:08 - ID#199183)
Old Gold: I'm sure you know that I dont think there is EVER a sure thing in markets. I posted tonite simply because I think that the odds of a bull market this powerful would END on a piece of news, with panic selling on Globex are about the same as the odds on Ken Starr getting on the Supreme Court. When I scrolled the chat and sow someone trying to buy puts after hours, I thought it might help some of the young'uns if I posted the way things usually work. There IS a small chance that the folks who panicked and sold Spoos at wholesale on Globex tonite were right. There is, however, a strong probability that those poor souls are wrong and the POWER will be there in the a.m., BUYING at juicy low prices. I may be wrong---I sure aint omniscient---but I want to be following the POWER, not the panicky sellers on globex.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:10 - ID#238295)
Hatt: If gold goes down tomorrow it will be because of weakness in Asian markets, not because of CB manipulation. Don't think most CBs are interested in pushing gold down further at this point. If Venneroso is on track, the Asian crisis -- not CB manipulation -- was the primary cause of last year's smash in the gold price.

Farfel: Very perceptive comments re: Portugal

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:10 - ID#431263)

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:10 - ID#23782)
All this talk of Aotearoa. I'm outta here in one week. 3 weeks of lookin' around. Cross hairs on Blenheim.
I'd settle there, but the wife can't pull the trigger.
I'll bet there is some gold in these hills!!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:15 - ID#238295)
Asia and gold
Golden Cheesehead: Haven't you learned by now that weakness in Asian markets and currencies is bearish for gold, not bullish?

Oldman: As always your posts are fraught with wisdom.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:15 - ID#431263)

Mike Stewart
(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:15 - ID#270253)
Top will come later!
Based on the predictible pattern observed every time the McClellan Summation Index has exceeded +3000, we have three corrective waves in a rising market during the 10-11 months following the +3000 reading. This occurred last July and we are now due for the third wave. These corrections are usually around 5-10%. A final high will follow this correction which is due to finish in late April-May. If the rally from this correction causes the McClellan Summation Index to again exceed +3000, the pattern starts again ( rare ) . Otherwise a bear is likely. That's how I have been trading it.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:22 - ID#431263)
HERR OLD GOLD--Haven't you learned that the US dollar hegemony over Asia is now coming to an end and that Japan Inc. is screaming at its central bank to set up a new gold-backed Asian trading currency? This is what will make meltdown 2 far more bullish for the precious yellow than meltdown 1 which only PROVED the enduring purchasing power of gold versus paper!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:24 - ID#199183)
Mr. Mc
Mike S: Your post re the Mc Summation Index was right on. It is one of 3 long term indicators that we use.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:29 - ID#424187)
Help What is GLOBEX (short for WHAT???)

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:29 - ID#199183)
Mike S: My data shows the Mc Summation Index went above 3000 again in October. I look for an old fashioned September top this year.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:34 - ID#288399)
1930's Depression/some anecdotes
My parents, alive and well in their mid-80's, remember the Depression and think another collapse is imminent. These are some things they used to tell us when we were growing up about the Great Depression:
1. Tons of beautiful objects from people's homes were thrown in the dump along the railroad station ( this was in a Westchester County city ) . No one picked the stuff up because everyday more people were losing their homes and having to move in with relatives.
2. My grandfather couldn't collect rent from his broke tenants so he accepted barter ( a piano ) instead.
3. Shopkeepers, if they managed to stay in business, fired all their help and stood in the doorways trying to attract customers.
4. An Italian uncle of my dad committed suicide rather than face the disgrace of "home relief".
5. If you kept a "good" job, you became better and better off as time went by -- your paycheck went further and further.
6. "Bums" would come up to the house and ask for a sandwich. No one was scared of the "bums" and people would invite them into their houses and feed them.
7. People had their ( previous ) half-day Saturday hours eliminated so that more people could keep their jobs.
8. "College-educated men", a minority of the population and usually from upper class families in those days, were pumping gas for a living and glad to have the job.
9. My dad said he joined the Army in '38 to improve his life. He was tired to living in an unheated shack without running water and tending to the rich mens' pleasure boats at the New Rochelle Yacht Club. Yet, he said at the time one was glad to have any income.
These comments are "personal", but thought they might be of interest as they were local for an urban, affluent area of that time.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:38 - ID#57232)
The Market bull continues! Logging off to rest -- long day!
Oldman: Thanks for letting me see what you are up to -- best of luck with your investing. You know, I think one thing you said is highly significant. The Clinton euphoria and the market euphoria are the same. When the markets go, so will BC.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:40 - ID#431263)

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:41 - ID#335190)
$18 Billion IMF Support @ Abortion Attached to Banking? IS THIS "THE POWERS TO BE"?
March 4, 1998
U.S. House panel leaders reach compromise IMF deal

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Leaders in the House Banking Committee Wednesday hammered out compromise legislation to fund the International Monetary Fund and make it more accountable after negotiations with the Clinton administration.

Passage of the legislation by the committee now looked more likely, and would represent the first major victory for President Clinton in his drive for $18 billion for the IMF, committee staffers say.

But many pitfalls still awaited the IMF in Congress. Abortion foes in the House have vowed to attach anti-abortion language to any money for the IMF. The attachment killed appropriations for the institution last November, and could derail IMF funding again this year because it would drive away many Democrats.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:42 - ID#339265)
...remember one thing...the Asian Markets already experienced their FIRST crash...naturally, everything was sold off then...every asset ( including gold ) was liquidated in order to raise cash to save the Asian house. Thereafter, as I am sure you are aware, Asia rebounded somewhat allowing the panic to subside.

In the calm that developed, the Asians were able to come up for air and determine that the only non-American denominated assets that did NOT severely depreciate ( and actually maintained their value fairly well ) were gold and silver.

Ergo, I would expect that, now that Asians have composed themselves somewhat, then the next financial debacle should result in ACCUMULATION ( rather than disposal ) of both gold and silver.

Historically, it has been the natural pattern to all financial crises.
all over the world.

At least, that is my insight presented to me this day by the fire-breathing dragons of Asia.

...F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:45 - ID#431263)
Herr FARFEL--You took the words right out'a my Mund! Danke!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:46 - ID#285392)
APH Thanks again for your prompt reply
FundaMETAList was enquiring about your latest position and I referred him to your Feb.28 forecast. I will follow your advice if the opportunity arises tomorrow.
Best regards

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:48 - ID#348286)
Nasdaq is limit down at 30 .........
Oldman: Of course you may be right again, but one of these days, as sure as sap runs from trees every spring, the 7 year + bull market will come crashing down......

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:49 - ID#285392)
To all --Consider APH'S advice
In my opinion APH has been one of our most accurate forecasters and ranks among the best of the Kitco contributors.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:51 - ID#26669)
Asian meltdown didn't reduce demand for 1997 Q4
according to the World Gold Council quarterly report published february 25 th. IMHO it was just the PERCEPTION that it would which drove down prices and actually boosted world Q4 consumption as millions of people saw a rare buying opportunity. I'll repost a reference to the report one more time, just for the sake of argument. You can also get there from the WGC home page.

Mike Stewart
(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:53 - ID#270253)
I use an issue adjusted McClellan Oscillator which forces the daily A/D to 1600 issues. This allows me to compare today's action with that of the 1960's, 1970,s and 1980's. So many more issues trade today that it distorts the amplitude of the oscillator. -125 readings, for example, are too commonplace without this adjustment.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:54 - ID#284255)
Where go the markets?
Not really having a go at the Aussies.
As I think that this place is one of the world's greatest places to live too.

Both NZ and OZ are beautiful counties,
With an easy way of life established.
Long may they stay that way.


Gold and Silver - Lease and Forward rates %.
Plotted and graphed for your inspection.
Data from Barts lease page.

Steve in TO__A
(Wed Mar 04 1998 21:57 - ID#209265)
JTF & Pete- Debt deflation et al.

You were in the Great Depression! You must have a lot of life's experience under your belt.

Anyhow, I think you're both right that the situation we're facing now is unprecedented. There has never before been a period when so many people have had such easy access to unsecured credit.

In the 1920's most people had savings, and believe it or not, a small majority of people even bought homes for cash. Mortgages would never have been extended to buyers who only put down 5%, as they are nowadays. My grandfather bought his first house on Runnymede Avenue for $4,000 in the 1920's ( kind of takes you aback, doesn't it, that house would now sell for about $180,000. )

Nowadays, not only do large numbers of people not have any savings, but many have a negative net worth- owing significant amounts of unsecured debt such as credit card balances or loans secured with rapidly depreciating items such as cars and furniture.

These people are not just two paycheques away from the street- they're five or six paycheques away from going bankrupt and defaulting on a pile of debt.

What will happen if a Depression-style contraction starts to occur after a stock market crash? Surely the loss of massive amounts unsecured consumer debt will acellerate the implosion beyond anything seen in the 'thirties, and beyond any government's ability to cope.

The economists know that a lot rides in that balance. I'm sure that's why they've tried so desperately to maintain an orderly exchange system and keep the US markets happy. Both Rubin and Greenspan have publicly said that the government has a plan to intervene in the markets. This is also unprecedented- tax dollars being used to try and keep the markets afloat. John Crudele and some market participants are convinced that the treasury is intervening by buying S&P and Dow index futures contracts, which is exactly what was done by the Treasury Dept. during George Bush's 1992 election campaign and Bill Clinton's 1996 campaign. In both cases markets were slightly bearish, and the Currency Stabilization Fund was used to buy S&P500 contracts. The mechanics of these operations are now well understood by the Treasury Dept., and they seem to follow the pattern described in 1989 by Robert Heller, who at the time was a Fed. Governor. It is surely no coincidence that the very first pre-election market manipulation ocurred in 1992.

We're entering uncharted territory here, guys. Markets have gotten pretty far out of balance before crashing precipitously, but never before in modern history has the government intervened directly in markets to prop them up.

As an ex-Californian, I've learned a bit about the theory of earthquakes. Earthquakes happen when pressure building up between two opposing tectonic plates is released, resulting in rapid earth movement along the interface. Little earthquakes happen when the fracture zone releases easily and often, so that only small amounts of movement occur at any one time. Big earthquakes happen along parts of the fracture zone where the interface doesn't release easily, and huge amounts of pressure must build up to trigger a shift. The thing about tectonic forces is, they don't just build up to some steady value and then stop, so that they could conceivably be contained. They accumulate, and they just keep on getting bigger- and shifting of the earth is the only thing that will get rid of them.

The US government is trying to contain forces that are tectonic, to my mind, in that they're not going to stop accumulating. When they eventually release, they're going to produce a financial earthquake that will be a 9 on the Richter scale.

BTW- if anyone is reading this in the Bay Area. I was there for the 7.1 Loma Prieta quake in 1989. Afterwards I talked to a geologist in Berkeley who said the San Andreas Fault in the area 5 miles out to sea off San Francisco has not released any pressure since the famous great earthquake it caused in 1906. He said in 1989 that their measurements indicated enough pressure had built up for at least a 7.6 quake. I don't know what it would be up to now. He said he couldn't imagine it going more than 30 years from that date ( 20 years now ) without releasing. Just thought you'd like to know : )

JTF- you were talking about a gold-backed currency. Perhaps now, as never before, the time is ripe for a privately-issued gold-backed currency. Some countries outlaw privately-issued currencies, and many countries, such as the US, try to make it very difficult for people to use them. The advent of securley encrypted computer communications means that a corporation could maintain gold reserves in an offshore location and allow people to do electronic transactions anywhere in the world. Two entrepreneurs have already set up a similar system, E-Gold ( ) but I have a few problems with it in that coins are being held in the US, and worse- the data is in the US. The US gov't is infamous, of course, for it's gold confiscation in the 30's, and for just bargeing in and taking computer data, the 4th ammendment notwithstanding.

Is anyone out there familiar with any initiative to set up an offshore gold currency with the gold held in a truly secure location?


(Wed Mar 04 1998 22:06 - ID#342282)
Allen B re Claimstaker
I got your message, but the send on my email says I can't send??? Apparently you can send to me ok and I'll have to post back. Thanx for your info. Any further will be appreciated. I'll be on the send problem 1st thing in am. At 100,000 oz it could mean about $30 mill. Standard should back a decent exploration program.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 22:12 - ID#26669)
There are different ways of looking at the Depression
In the southern half of the US the depression actually started around 1863 or 64 around the time that the foreign invaders had seriously started burning and pillaging. It continued through the end of the 19th century and early 20 century, eased only by the influx of wealth as our forests were clear cut, our resources strip mined and wealthy northerners returned as tourists.

It was customary to pay logging crews and miners in gold and silver coins and those who saved their money were able to buy thousands of acres of prime farmland as ridiculously low prices then hire others as sharecroppers to work it.

The 1930's were particularly bad, not from the standpoint of not much money but because they were bad drought years. There had never been much circulating money since the mid 1860's. But the drought and taxation drove many to ruin unless they had some reserve of hard wealth. The few who'd hoarded gold and silver and not overextended looked at the depression as an opportunity because suddenly the wealth of the rich yankee bankers, storekeepers et cetera was gone and they were able to buy it back for taxes.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 22:15 - ID#30116)
Did it work??? Inquiring minds wish to know...

(Wed Mar 04 1998 22:17 - ID#57232)
Must sign off - Chores
sharefin: Great Gold/silver lease rate graphs -- first rate as always!

So -- Except for the Spoo trades, the Oldman is not so different investmentwise from the rest of us. I think also that the market bear will not begin in earnest till the fall -- still have my sp500 puts - most expire in December. Might make a modest profit.

Still have a little 'funny money' left to buy more market puts. I think we still must be careful with gold and gold stocks, as a serious attack on the dollar, or a -500 point DOW will bring then down. It is really a moot point regarding whether this is due to the SEAsian markets plummeting, because this would also happen.

If the markets avoid an outright 'crash', gold will do very well in a market bear, I think.

Steve in TO__A
(Wed Mar 04 1998 22:18 - ID#209265)
Note on US gov't market intervention
Just another thought. When the Treasury Dept. goes into intervene mode on the index futures market, a ton of money can be made by people with the right access to fast executions.

On Oct. 28, 1997, when an intervention is known to have occurred, the spread between the S&P500 index futures and the underlyings reached 35 points! Whoever was buying these things for the gov't was willing to pay any price. The floor traders, and people who were watching it in real time and could get orders to the floor fast enough made a killing.


(Wed Mar 04 1998 22:19 - ID#222231)
Shlome-More depression stories
In 1934, when I was a lad of 9, I went downtown with my dad. An excavation for a building basement and foundation was going on. There was a railing around the pit. In those days, the excavation was done by hand, where men were shoveling into a cart drawn by a horse, around a ramp into the pit. There had to be 10 to 15 men jammed against the railing waiting for the chance to work. As soon as one of the men shoveling stretched or slowed up, he was fired on the spot. They would then hire one of the men waiting.

I had an uncle who graduated in 1930 as an engineer. He could'nt get any work save a job as a salesman for a macaroni co. and was glad to have that. It took 9 years before he could get a job in his profession.
There were stories of poor, dejected people commiting suicide every day because they lost everything.

My dad told me that the depression was an implosion due to a sudden failure of the banking system and thereby a huge lack of liquidity and credit available to most. My dad was smart, he saw something coming and pulled his money out before it was too late ( gold certificates, not coin. ) It seems like de ve jue again. I pray it does not happen again, and as much as I detest what has been happening in our present monetary system, I hope they can pull it off ( at least back to realistic values. ) Nothing can be worse than massive failure, for the average person will be affected severely. By the way, my dad was so affected by the depression that he did not invest in real estate or anything else illiquid for the rest of his natural life.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 22:27 - ID#334280)
Farfel: Only 19 trading days for DOW 10,000
Farfel: Only 19 trading days left till DOW 10,000 as per your prediction.
I will not forget.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 22:30 - ID#341189)
I suppose Globex stands for global exchange. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange offers overnight electronic trading in several futures contracts including major currencies, S&P contracts, and the Nasdac 100. You can find their quotes after 5:30 CST at:

(Wed Mar 04 1998 22:32 - ID#316193)
Japan To Peddle Worthless Loans, Ten Cents On The Dollar

(Wed Mar 04 1998 22:34 - ID#335190)
DOPE INC. @ 1996

By Jeffrey Steinberg
( New Federalist 06/17/96 )
June 12 ( EIRNS ) -- One week after Executive Intelligence Review [EIR] broke an exclusive story which pointed to probable witting collusion among the New York Federal Reserve, Citibank, and the brother of former Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gotari, in a multimillion-dollar international drug-money-laundering scheme, major European and U.S. newspapers, including the Wall Street Journal and the Miami Herald, have jumped on the scandal. But in all cases they've avoided the Fed connection emphasized by EIR, and have gone out of their way to misrepresent the affair as a case of an isolated corrupt banker or two.

Fed Receivership
In another exclusive that was long covered up by the financial press, EIR revealed back in 1992 that Citibank had gone bankrupt, and had been placed -- secretly -- into receivership by the New York Fed. This story, like the recent Salinas dope scandal, was later confirmed and reported widely in the Wall Street Journal and elsewhere.

In short, at the time that Elliot was helping wash millions of dollars in Mexican cartel loot through Raul Salinas's international accounts, Fed regulators were managing the day-to-day affairs of Citibank. Fed inspectors were micro-managing any transactions that passed the one-million-dollar mark! The Fed has never been forced to own up to its role in the Citibank-Salinas money-laundering scheme, although the U.S. Justice Department is now probing the entire affair, including the role of Citibank.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 22:42 - ID#222231)
All SSC holders - FYI

By: sellthishorse
Date: Mar 4 1998 4:49 P.M PST
Reply To: Msg. 1 by YahooFinance

I believe in the possibilities for silver, but the hype has gone
overboard, we've seen a rapid rise and were at about a steady
level right now, silver isn't going over $10 even $8 any time
soon ( less than six months ) , this makes me worry about this
stock. I exchanged e-mail notes with William Davis at the
company, he said:

"We sell our silver as produced each month, and our contracts
with our customers call for pricing of the silver to take place
based on average prices sometime after shipment ( 1 month to 3
months ) . The recent price improvement will have an impact this
quarter. We would be profitable with Pirquitas in production,
which should start in 2000, at a $5 silve price. With just the
Sunshine Mine in production, we will need about a $7.50 silver
price to be profitable."

I hope we reach $7.50 and stay there.

Chris Koontz

(Wed Mar 04 1998 22:43 - ID#288157)
A. Goose--Maybe your Thoughts started the boulder down the mountain!

1. Check Kiwis post re:"Islamic bank supports"...--exactly as discussed!

2. Stephen Roach has thoughtful piece in FT : Land of the Rising Dragon--
There are, in fact, three channels through which this venting could take place: the currency, the pace of reforms, or the economys growth rate. I am convinced that the currency channel is shut off for the foreseeable future. Its that simple. Western skeptics may think devaluation is only a matter of time, but Chinas leaders HAVE MADE A POLITICAL DECISION TO SUPPORT THE CURRENCY, a decision with obvious and important economic consequences.

...This contrast between China and Japan suggests a new Asian leadership is emerging in the wake of the crisis. ...China has embarked on a new path with determination. By resisting the temptation of competitive currency devaluation, China is exposing its inefficient state-owned enterprises to an ever-greater competitive challenge. But that is a calculated risk they seem prepared to take. And so I am left with a sense of a post-Crisis Asia that could well be dominated by the ascendancy of China and the decline of Japan.
Stephen Roach, chief economist, director of global economics
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter

3. The discussion of Chinas 1993-4 comments about backing its currency with gold, which was discussed today...and then THIS pops up. Look at the silver coin--doesnt that look like it might be about an ounce? A new Silver Dollar? ...A new Hong Kong Silver Dollar...current price of silver would mean a bit of a nudge down of the HKD vs USD...but a psychological revaluation of both worlds. Looking much better prophet!!!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 22:43 - ID#304282)
INTC down 24?
I have been reading the intel thread and about 75% can't wait for tomorrow's great buying opportunity. Incredible! The top is near. Here is one exception.

On one of the yahoo msg boards there is a post where someone's broker says intel will open tomorrow down 24 . Is it possible that this could be true? When are opening prices determined. The thing that bothers me is, my broker at Bear Stearns has occasionally told me the opeing price of some securities the night before, and they were right. But come on, down 24... that cant be possible.

Can it?


(Wed Mar 04 1998 22:47 - ID#288399)
Pete/Depression stories
It's interesting that your Dad stayed real-estate averse for the rest of his life. My parents to this day have never "owned" any credit card and, although they are millionaires, they still clip coupons! They raised us to pay cash for everything ( including a house ) and the Depression must have been one horrible experience, because it seems that everyone of working age was scarred/changed in their thinking permanently. Some times I think that the "Kondratieff cycle" of the usual 50 years has been inadvertently "expanded" to 60 or 70 years as they average lifespan has increased. The time for the next "Great Depression" will probably be when almost everyone who was 16 or older in 1930 is dead or addled.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 22:52 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Computers, Electronics & Software Sector Chart

One day High Tech Correction?

(Wed Mar 04 1998 22:54 - ID#248180)
Portugal Central Bankers- Say What? Who are they?
I am amazed, how those persons, powers and institutions hell-bent on keeping the price of PM's down seize upon the quotes of insignificant pencil-neck central bankers from of all places Portugal. Where does Portugal sit in the size/scale of World economies? I mean no disrespect for Portugese persons and I must say I love the place, culture and people.
It simply shouts to me that they are running out of reasons, and ways of explaining away the real problems of short supply of PM's. In addition the real trend towards gold backed currencies; the IMF does not want it.
All Investors keep accumulating PM's and mining stocks - go long, we have a bright future.

Steve in TO__A
(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:08 - ID#209265)
Michelle- next day's opening price
It's easy for brokers, or anyone with access to a live terminal to know what opening prices will be.

When markets close there will be a bid and ask price outstanding from the close. People often put in orders to be executed at opening. All a broker has to do is look at what the majority of these orders are priced at, and as long as they're reasonable they'll be filled at that price 1st thing in the AM.

I presume your broker has seen a bunch of orders outstanding from some people who really want to get out of Intel, and have put in orders at prices where they know they'll fill. If people really want to get out of a stock or into it they may even issue orders above or below the bid & ask so as to try to guarantee the first fill. So unofficial prices may even change outside of trading hours.

BTW- after US markets closed Intel issued an earnings warning. I presume this is why the bears are positioning themselves.


(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:09 - ID#256254)
Thanks SDRer.
As you pointed before, Islam controls vast amounts of oil, Not just in the Middle East but also in Asia and in the former states of the Soviet Union.

The Moslems, like the Chinese, have a long range plan. And it seems that their plans are coming together.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:21 - ID#411201)
@power in numbers.....
What do you suppose is the total aggregate of PM shares held by
all we kitcoites ? Hell if we poole em together we could have
our own Central Bank !

(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:22 - ID#336297)
Came across this table while flipping through a copy of Investors
Digest. Thought it might be of interest to some?--------------------------------
Gold stocks CPI ( inflation )
change 4 mos. change 4 mos.
after market top after market top
Market Top
Dec 1968 -2.0% +1.40%
Apr 71 +5.0% -.80%
Jan 73 +54.0 +5.8
Sept 76 +20.0 +1.1
Feb 80 +16 -3.1
Nov 80 -26.0 -3.1
Oct 83 +15.0 +1.30
Aug 87 -22.0 -0.3
Jul 90 -14.0 -1.90
Average annualized gold gain 4.5%

(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:22 - ID#20828)
newcomer on Kitco

I've enjoyed reading everyone's postings over the last couple of months and I hope that I can add some thoughtful consideration to the fortunes of gold and precious metals.

As a technician I am very encouraged by the recent test of the low 290's on gold from the January high. The rally back over 300 briefly has broken the back of the January downtrend line and we have been re-testing that trendline in the last couple of days.

Todays action in the gold stocks on the TSE was very encouraging in that they closed at their highs for the day. Good relative strength against the bullion. I would look for 313-321 as a near-term target. Stay tuned.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:23 - ID#288157)
A. Goose--Vast amounts of oil AND working on getting the rest in line!
From Isalmic Development Bank--
"The IDB has given special attention to the promotion of trade contacts with the newly emerged Muslim countries from the former USSR. Some countries emerging from the former USSR like Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrghyzia, and Turkmenistan have recently become IDB members and
many others are expected to do so in the near future. The IDB is keen to contribute to the promotion of exports of new Islamic countries to member countries."

Pete@debt.questions Pete you might enjoy rambling thru the above url site--
The Islamic faith has very strict prohibitions about paper debt. Their FAQ lays out exactly how they are providing capital for member
countries, without resorting to western paper debt.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:25 - ID#256254)

"A new Hong Kong Silver Dollar...current
price of silver would mean a bit of a nudge down of the HKD vs USD...but a psychological
revaluation of both worlds. "

Very interesting. They could replace the Hong Kong dollar with this new silver dollar which would add "value" to the currency while revaluing the paper currency, noting that an ounce of silver is $6.30. HK dollar is presently tagged at 7HKd or 8HKd to 1 U.S.d. It very well be the approach that China takes.

China is bold, bolder than we in many respects.

Wednesday March 4, 10:58 pm Eastern Time

China premier says to cut 11 ministries

BEIJING, March 5 ( Reuters ) - Chinese Premier Li Peng told parliament on Thursday that 11 out of 40 ministry-level bodies would be
scrapped as part of a streamlining of the bloated bureaucracy.
``State Council ministries and commissions would be reduced from 40 to 29,'' Li told the opening session of the National People's

China had restructured its government institutions in 1982, 1988 and 1993, he said. However, the incompatibilities of government
institutions with the development of a socialist market economy had become ``increasingly apparent.''

``It constitutes an important aspect of reform of the system of leadership of the state and is also a necessity in bringing the government
closer to the people,'' he said.

``China will alter the functions of the government and separate them from those of the enterprise so as to establish a highly efficient,
well-coordinated and standardised administrative system,'' he said.

``This reform involves greater changes for both institutions and people than similar previous reforms,'' he said. ``It should therefore be
handled persistently, prudently, patiently and carefully,'' he said.

NOW which western government would make a similiar announcement at this time?

(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:27 - ID#401460)

Nikkei 225
-170.53 -1.00%

Wednesday March 4, 10:12 pm Eastern Time

Summers says Japan's economy must grow from within

``It is crucial given the history of protectionist pressures around the world over the last several decades that this time Japan grow from within,'' he told bank executives at the Independent Bankers Association of America's Annual
Convention here. He was speaking via videolink from Washington,D.C.

Doesnt look like they are going to be much help.

Wednesday March 4, 10:20 pm Eastern Time

Japan Feb imported vehicle sales down 39.8% yr/yr

TOKYO, March 5 ( Reuters ) - Domestic sales of imported vehicles in Japan fell 39.8 percent in February from a year earlier to 22,133 vehicles, the Japan Automobile Importers Association ( JAIA ) said on Thursday.

It was the 11th successive month in which domestic sales of imported vehicles fell on a year-on-year basis.

February sales of imported vehicles, excluding sales of vehicles produced by overseas units of Japanese makers, fell 35.2 percent from a year earlier to 19,857 units.

Interesting to note that all imports are from Europe and the US, very very few from Asia -

SO who are they looking for Japan to bail out?


(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:28 - ID#252127)

Yes Earl; the US Currency should be convertible to Gold and Silver, but for the white metal, the monetary axe has fallen, compliments of LBJ.

What concerns: If the US ever puts a fair price on gold, very few americans would be able to afford it.

If M1 + money market funds outstanding were the basis $8300 per oz.,
would be the new price. If our direct government deficit were the basis, the gold price would be about 21,000 per oz.
But who really knows what the basis should be?

In any event, I surmise that those who control the world, would have even more power.

Getting rid of the fed would be a positive first step along with gold/currency convertability but with strict standards on who and how much. Would you want 'that who' the billionaires and well connected bankers buying out our gold reserve? Sometimes I wonder if they haven't already done so.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:30 - ID#373403)
As much raw data as Kitco provides, I feel immensely smarter after reading my bi-monthly Privateer. They work well together.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:32 - ID#336297)
First column--Gold stocks change---Second---CPI change.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:33 - ID#401460)
(newcomer on Kitco)

Thanks for your post.
Look forward to more tech analysis.


(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:35 - ID#222231)
I believe in cycles. The only problem is that no one can predict when, they can only approximate. Also, the markets today are more sophisticated and behind the scene maneuvers can delay the implosion.

I'm concerned for my children and grandchildren, and for all others also. Most have never known the lack of want, need or hardship. That's why I've made arrangements in thier behalf, because I know it's going to happen. Maybe not while I can still breathe, but for sure in thier years. I've also tried to educate them as to what can be expected, only I fear this time it will be worse ( what a horrible thought. ) I think I'll get them a Smith & Wesson also.


(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:36 - ID#227290)
newcomer on Kitco

I don't know if you saw my 20:06 post, but your ideas are right in line with mine.

The Preacher

(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:36 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Well, at least the S&P call from two-three weeks ago, and then this morning, panned out on schedule. Could be down through the open Monday. Mondays can be right interesting at these times!

Still think today may have been transition day for crude, heating oil, hogs and as it may turn out, gold, but in the opposite direction from my earlier thoughts. Interesting. Grains should have an eye kept on them. They appear to be at another critical point that probably no more than another day or two should 'define'. As usual, we'll see how it all pans out.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:38 - ID#252127)

Portugal, its a guilt problem. They along with the Spaniards were the ones who raped the new world.
Damn even in those days they were using that term 'New World', interesting.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:40 - ID#288157)
A. Goose, Bold and determined...
One of the things that impressed me greatly was the number of people in positions of great authority who had been in prison. The gentlemen they call "Mr. Bankruptcy" ( it is he who has been given the job of deciding who must go into bankruptcy ) was jailed in times past, for daring to suggest that the government shouldn't support business failures! And now he is in charge of the process. That is quite incredible, to my mind. And he is not a lone example of this breed of intelligent, determined men who have been through the fire. Tough team to play against!
Particularly as China has defined say nothing of that 55 year plan!

(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:40 - ID#28961)
newcomer on Kitco

One thing the markets have taught me in my 14 years is to be patient. So it is appropriate that I include my handle...


(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:42 - ID#284255)
Swing chart updated

The swing is caught in an interesting position at the moment.
It should be starting to base before the next upswing.
To send it down here could be damaging.

Also note that in the beginings of the previous bull legs the swing travelled from -15 to +15 in one wave.
This current move from -15 to +15 is an extended erratic move.
Perhaps the bull is weak and tired.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:47 - ID#284255)
You did shoo them away?
My seagull is still rejected.
Rooftop space overflowing.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:54 - ID#257148)
Aotearoa - sounds like home to me.

Thank you to all the posters today. Certainly been a very informative day, even an Aussie Joke or two. to make me really feel at home, thanks sharefin, and I see kiwi is back too.

vronsky we have no tropical rainforests, however the West Coast of the S Island is temperate podocarp rainforest up to the high reaches of the Southern Alps that bisect the island. The south Island also contains glaciers, fiords, alpine desert, plains and wide, wide rivers.

A thousand thanks to Bart for the site.

(Wed Mar 04 1998 23:57 - ID#28961)
Preacher, read your posting of 20:08

Nice summary, my sentiments as well. In fact the US dollar index looks a lot like the Toronto Stock Exchange ( TSE ) 300 index in the Oct-Jan period. A triangle pattern forming wave b, momentum waning and a sharp c wave to come to around the 96.50 - 97.00 area.

Bonds, dollar and gold all seem to be lining up.