Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 00:00 - ID#173274)
@the scene
I think in this discussion of 'what' should be 'backed' by PMs, a lot of confussion exists between 'money' and 'credit'. Only the currencies should be of real value. Credit should only be the concern of those that give it. Governments have a responsibility of putting and KEEPING an honest monetary system into place. That is one of three responsibilities they have, at least under the constitution of these united states. No more and no less. Given that the actual monetary demands of the country are, I believe, currently under 500 billion, that type of number should probably be used in the calculation. One other aspect that I haven't seen discussed is savings. I believe this too is a very important aspect of monetary concerns. That could very well add to the above figure to a large extent. Since our elected 'representatives' in Washington have only three REAL constitutionally based concerns to work on, THEY should have plenty of time to find the correct answers. 'Course, if they are toooo busy with further and further restricting freedoms through their statute legislations, then of course they'll never find the time to be doing the right stuff! We'd all be better off to pay them each a million dollars a year to not go to work. That would be a correct type of welfare! Think of all it would save US!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 00:03 - ID#210235)
A million a year to give a congressman the year off? A bargain at twice the price! Shall we start a grassroots movement?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 00:07 - ID#252127)

If the government didn't pay interest on its own money, taxes would be considerably less. On a $5.5 Trillion debt at 5%, it would be about $275 billion annually. Only corrupt dying governments pay interest on their own currency, as such are controlled by the few, not the many. This is slow death for the many, and nothing is done.
Usery laws should be in effect for all private debt, all things would be a lot cheaper. Credit cards should be debit cards, or have limits on the interest charged.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 00:20 - ID#257136)
Spudmaster's posts of 17:20 and 17:30 were both noteworthy. I concur in their content wholeheartedly.

Mozel: Yours of 17:52 and 19:04 were also masterpieces!

The main reason I see them as I do is the fact I cannot express the sentiments as well as do either of you! I do feel them as strongly, however!
I do not touch type and when I let my ire speak for me, my posts suffer.
A post of any length is a long ordeal for me, so if some of my stuff seems a little awry,-sorry!

Pete: I've wanted to respond to your most recent post to me for several days now, but have not had the time 'til now.
I too am a child of the depression. I have seen many folks who worked for fifty ( 50 ) cents per day who managed to save a portion of every day's pay.
They, through frugal living and control of their spending habits
were able to save enough to make small capital inveatments and ultimately become entrepeneurs. Many were and died as millionaires.

That kind of COMMON SENSE is nearly unknown today.

I really feel sad to realize you are a depression kid too, but have swallowed the ol' socialist line to the degree you can't think for yourself.

I do not call names! I only state the behavior I find repugnant.

I am not "starting something with you" either. Merely speaking my opinion.

You will note I did not use any epithets to or about you. Only mentioned some behavioral characteristics which are anathema to a free person.

Any time you can run your business or family's financial affairs by deficit financing ( as does the usg ) and survive as a legitimate business or corporate entity, please post the formula so we can all take advantage of the handout!!

In my lexicon or credo TANSTAAFL!

No hard feeling! Merely my NSHO!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 00:25 - ID#256254)
comex stocks for 3-4-98
warehouse stocks:

350,603 0 0 0 -4,775 345,828
130,307 0 96 -96 4,775 134,986
480,910 0 96 -96 0 480,814


0 -167,558 36,363,762
499,711 167,558 53,875,047
499,711 0 90,238,809

We can see that eligible gold increased today because someone transfered 4,775 ounces from registered to eligible.

Quotes as of Mar 04, 1998 ( Pacific Standard Time )
Last Quote
Current Market Mth Open High Low Last Change Date Time Ask Bid
S & P 500 ( CME ) ( Globex ) Mar 1044.00 1044.00 1034.60 1035.00b -12.90 3/4/98 21:10 1035.20 1034.90
S&P 500 Futures Premium 268 328 -1273 -1233 -1521 3/4/98 21:07

Mini S & P 500 ( CME ) Mar 1045.75 1046.00 1034.50 1034.50 -13.50 3/4/98 21:10 1035.00 1034.75
NASDAQ 100 ( GLOBEX ) Mar 1165.00 1166.05 1150.75 1150.75a -30.00 3/4/98 20:17 1150.75

goodnight all.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 00:31 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Jack -- The amount owed on the debt each year essentially amounts to the amount of additional debt. Take away the 5.5 trillion dollar debt and the usury payments thereof, and you have an automatically balanced budget, even given the off-budget expenditures. This is why it was originally provided that the government coin money, and not usurious charging blood-sucking bankers. I.E., no need to borrow at cost. We have a back-assward government here. One that hasn't worked for the people in a very very long time. As long as a debt-based monetary system is in effect, your children and mine, living within the system, will never be free, regardless of all else being rectified. 'Cost-of-living' TRULY DOES have a meaning, right off the top, and this debt system is where the blame must be appropriately placed!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 00:32 - ID#286249)
Sharefin--Did my eMail get out to you?
or am I totally isolated ( except, of course, for Kitco! )
After your message this morning, I IMMEDIATELY went to clean the mailbox with vigor--

I think I know what the Islamic Dinar is in USD: From the Islamic
Development Bank -- ( Islamic Economics and Islamic Banking Prize..."The Prize currently includes a citation and a cash award of Islamic Dinars 30,000 ( US$43,500 approximately ) ."

Now, if the dinar is, by Islamic Law "a specific weight of gold equivalent to 4.3 grammes, couldn't we ( well, actually--you ) figure out their "Price of Gold"? --in my fit of clean-up, I took off all the files with the conversion/equivalent stuff...and frankly, I don't remember any
of the weights!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 00:51 - ID#286249)
A Solution! forget the IMF--Gates can lend the money to Indonesia! {:-)
FT, Thur Mar 5, 1998

Soros reveals secret loan to Kremlin

George Soros, the financier and philanthropist, said yesterday he had lent the Russian government "several hundred million dollars" in June last year, helping the Kremlin keep its promise to pay overdue pensions. "They were stuck," Mr Soros said. "There was one period of a few days when we did make a kind of a bridge loan to enable the government to pay the arrears."

Think we will have an announcement from Bill Gates tomorrow?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 01:01 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Prometheus -- Most people wouldn't have their 'warm-fuzzies' anymore if Congress didn't show up for work. There is basically one 'movement' I'm regularly into once a day, and one day soon our scrip 'currency' might be of better use there. Beyond that, I think Congress will eventually 'relinquish' itself out of office, what with GATT, WTO, and all the rest of the multi-lateral BS and ad-nauseum.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 01:20 - ID#248180)
aj @ "Children of the Depression" @ 00:20
Ironic isn't it: Children of the Depression begat - "depressed socialist children". If not socialists in a political way then certainly in the socialist multi-national corporate way.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 01:26 - ID#284255)
ISP problem I think
I receive your emails fine.
When I send you one it comes back:
Returned mail: Mailbox full, Please try later.

I hazard a guess that your ISP who stores your email has a cloggage.
Contact them to relieve your anxiety.
Be carefull as they may just erase all your incoming mail to fix this problem.

Ask them to split your email file up and resend it to you.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 01:30 - ID#28593)
Thanks sharefin!
Will do! Goodnight!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 01:31 - ID#257148)
Well, if you don't have a Mac try
this on-line calculator

( I've posted a Mac shareware calculator before )
just one of over 5,000 on-line calculators at the centre of my research Universe

lookee here

(Thu Mar 05 1998 01:37 - ID#401460)
Current Price of Gold?

Does anyone know the price of Gold?

Every site I go to has Gold @ a different price,
some are a month old.



John Disney__A
(Thu Mar 05 1998 01:43 - ID#24135)
the Platinum caper
For Oris

This tricky guy is quoted to say ...

"that Russia's supplies of platinum were sufficient to
allow it to meet its obligations, despite reports that stockpiles
have been run down.

``They're enough, yes, to fulfil all agreed quotas,'' he said."

He does NOT say that the STOCKPILE is NOT gone ( im sure it is
gone now ) - he ONLY says they can meet agreed quotas. I interpret
what this tricky guy who keeps two, maybe THREE sets of books says to
mean ...
1. Platinum stockpile is GONE
2. PLANNED Platinum production and operational inventory is sufficient
to meet obligations

Between the lines I read .. if there is a strike due to starvation
problem with unpaid frozen miners, then there may be a platinum
Everybody feels sorry for Black South African miners who are fat
and warm . Nobody gives a stuff for Russian miners who are thin and cold
( presumably because they are White ) .
Maybe Spielberg will make a movie.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 02:04 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Humorous scenario; Everybody is expecting this drop to be fairly short and sweet, with new highs in the stock indices to proceed into April. At that point they will then get REAL short. Wouldn't it be a 'scenario' if it all fell like a rock without them aboard at this time! HAR! Now, I'm not saying that this break is IT. Only posting what would be a 'funny'! Besides, it'll 'speak' for itself as it will, as usual, and I do not believe it could get much past 990 in the Mar S&P in any case without at least an attempt at a decent bounce.

John Disney__A
(Thu Mar 05 1998 02:17 - ID#24135)
Government Debt
You said...
"I do agree with you that the federal debt is out of hand. I meant to say that when one
borrows in a responsible manner, and pays off that debt either thru earnings or out of
pocket, then debt is not a bad thing. "

Yes .. BUT . Governments do not have EARNINGS .. they
only collect revenue in the form of taxes FROM people
that have earnings. They only need to borrow BECAUSE
they cannot tax to a greater degree. and still be re elected.
Since this will ALWAYS be the case ... they will never be
able to repay the debt nor the interest on that debt.
They must PRINT the money to repay debt and interest.
This should be pretty clear to anyone... only it isnt.
Government should only have been permitted to borrow
money in times of national crisis. They have created
a shell game. There is no easy way out of it.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 02:19 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Should my 'funny scenario' somehow happen to come to pass, we could see at/near 860 Mar S&P at the end of the month! Don't you just love 'possibilities'!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 02:43 - ID#253228)
Depression stories
My grandfather was a relatively young man in the 1930's with a wife and two daughers. The depression cost his his job at Ford in Detroit and his marriage which ended in the despair of his wife who could not stand the poverty and went home to mom and dad with her daughters, never again to see my grandfather. They never divorced and neither remarried. I became a teenager in the 1950's and I can remember many stories he told me about his life. He thought that Roosevelt was a great man who saved the world from despair.
I listened and didn't know any better, and even if I would then have realized what an evil man Roosevelt was, I doubt that I would have expressed that to my grandfather who I loved dearly and admired greatly.
My favorite story was about a job he heard about on Bell Isle, which he said was an exclusive area. The job was for a bus-boy. He took the boat out and asked for the job and was hired on the spot by the bartender. He was told that it was an private club and that he was to pick up empty drink glasses, clean up any trash, etc., tend the fire and keep a pile of wood chopped to feed the fire into the night. After doing a little cleaning he was surprised to see a number of exotically clad women emerging from the upstairs area. He said he asked the bartender what was up and he was just told to mind his business and do his job. He was sent out to chop wood. Of course he realized at that point that he was in as he called it a "house of ill repute". He told me he started chopping and started worrying that he would eventually be disgraced for working in such a place, so after wrestling with his fear and his need for money, he finally just folder up the apron he had been issued, placed it on the pile of wood and started running toward the boat dock as fast as he could.
He lived in a boarding house and all tenants would look for work daily and if anyone made a little money they would buy milk, butter, and buckwheat flour and eat that for breakfast, lunch and supper until it ran out. He made several lifelong friends in that boarding house and eventually went to work for Chrysler where he worked until retirement. He never would buy a house because he kept expecting the depression to come back .
I miss that dear old man.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 02:50 - ID#173274)
@the scene
John Disney -- If ONLY they would print the money to pay the debt, vs. borrowing it to pay the debt that they then must again borrow, etc, etc. A one time hit of inflation is much much preferable to an ever increasing amount of inflationary 'pressures' caused by an ever increasing need to borrow at interest. If they had done this from the beginning, we would not be under the burden of debt. We would have had some inflation, which we have had anyway, and to a greater extent because of the additional debt burden, and with a few elitists getting super wealthy off the 'proceeds. But the slate would otherwise be clean. But to 'pay' it off now would mean hyper-inflation. Best to just say no and start it over. Many say that that can not be done, but the ever increasing 'weight' of the current system will/must bring itself down anyway, and probably in a most untimely manner. Best to put the foot forward and do it in a controlled manner. As long as it continues to stand, all those who live within the system will 'forever be in its debt'! ( No pun intended! )

(Thu Mar 05 1998 03:04 - ID#173274)
@the scene
to continue: Of course, no policy can exist of and by itself. So many other social and political issues also need to be rectified. But I 'suspect' that those too will get rectified in their own way should/when the dollar be valued at its true worth. Not a nice scene enveloping that scenario. That will truly be 'foxhole' time!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 03:04 - ID#22956)
news...old or new....depends on where ya been...
fwiw.... ( more hmmmmmm... ) ...


...In other news, Deutsche Bank AG managing director for

commodities, Charles von Arentschildt, told the Australian Gold

Conference in Kalgoorlie the incentive for the planned European

Central Bank ( ECB ) to hold a relatively large proportion of

reserves in gold had been "grossly underestimated" by the


"We believe that the ECB will be biased toward holding a

relatively large accessible amount of reserves as they build

confidence in the Euro," he said.

The chairman of South Africa's Anglogold Ltd, the world's

largest gold producer, also told the conference that European

central banks have indicated they plan no more gold sales.

Anglogold's Bobby Godsell said South African gold producers

and European central bankers met at the World Economic Forum in

Davos, Switzerland last month.

Godsell said he believed the new ECB would hold between 10

and 30 pct of its reserves in gold.


conjecture, will all be told.....eventually. buy intel after the smoke clears


(Thu Mar 05 1998 03:08 - ID#206358)
Rupiahs,rinngits,sin dollars ..been hit hard this afternoon!Rupiahs break 10000 :1 us now!Looked very weak!IMF helpless!one comment read
:With IMF ruling, problem as such has been created
- Unemployment 40%.
- Inflation 400 %.
- Growth 0
- Crime rate up 25 times.
What do you expect anyone to live under such conditions?

any comments...?!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 03:08 - ID#33650)
@ mozel / crash hedge for real estate
Thanks Mozel, I will double my coin holdings definitely.
Sorry for the late response, but web access was impossible

(Thu Mar 05 1998 03:09 - ID#206358)
Rupiahs,rinngits,sin dollars ..been hit hard this afternoon!Rupiahs break 10000 :1 us now!Looked very weak!IMF helpless!one comment read
:With IMF ruling, problem as such has been created
- Unemployment 40%.
- Inflation 400 %.
- Growth 0
- Crime rate up 25 times.
What do you expect anyone to live under such conditions?

any comments...?!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 03:09 - ID#33650)
@james / crash hedge for real estate
thanks James: I agree that diversification is necessary. I just don't know what PM will do in a deflation. I don't even know whether the Dow crash will trigger one or whether w're in one already or is it an infaltion or staglation with depression?
BTW: where do you get your 24 day moving average online real time ?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 03:11 - ID#257148)
It's Kitco, and it's morning.........


Thank you for a story from your golden heart.


Now, there's a great deal going in korean ginseng.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 03:14 - ID#253228)
On Constitutions. Starts with a con as is con-man.
This document is the equivalent of the Articles of Incorporation for a private corporation. Now if I were to subscribe to the shares of a private corporation I guess any gain or losses I incurred would have been a result of my actions. Somehow I don't remember signing any document when the Constitution was written. I really don't even remember being in existence. How could I be bound by it or claim any benefit under it. True, I was born in the territory that the corporation, US Government, claims as theirs. I don't understand how my parents having a moment of passion that resulted in me ( I wish I hadn't had that thought ) would have resulted in my being bound by some ancient document. I know you love it or leave it guys will say leave, but then why should anyone else have a greater ( or lesser ) right to be a resident earning his own way than I.
I really don't think the constitution which was really a grant of monopoly to a single corporation ( US government ) by a number of King of England authorized corporations ( states ) applies to me. No one has asked to to sign it that I recall, and I would not agree to the authorization of such a monopoly.
As for the effectiveness of the Constitution: Even if it was well intentioned, has is been followed. If the Constiitution authorized the actions of the government we have now then it is a pile of horse pooey. If it did not authorize these actions, then it surely didn't work to prevent what is now happening and it is again a pile of hores pooey.
So much for group activities.
I might not mind a corporation of mutual defense, supported much like the Salvation Army with freely given contributions. Then we would get as much government as we collectively ( I have that word ) hired.
Also, certainly I cannot authorize an agent to act on my behalf to do something that I do not have a right to personally do. I can't send my agent to your house and tell you to contribute to the organization of my choice or else in a 8" x 10" cell you go. I cannot go to my neighbors house and demand he so anything. I only have the right to defend my self against agression by another and that is all I can authorize my agent to do. So how is it that this government that we supposedly created can do all these things that none of us would dare do or claim to have the right to do lest we be accused of agression against our neighbors?

On the issue of usury: I doubt that any of you who hold real estate would like to be told not to charge the maximum rent you can get without losing your tenants. What the real problem with interest is that it is charged on "debt money" that is issued under a monopoly grant to banks. There are really two problems. One is fractional reserves and the second is the reserve is itself not now gold or silver, but bank and/or government debt. If we lived in a society where gold was officially money and I lent you some of my gold, then I sure as hell want some compensation, and the most I could get under market conditions. Even the times in history when gold was money, but banks in a free banking market issued bank notes as "credit money" under the fractional reserve banking system where gold was the reserve, things did not work out badly because market forces made banks be careful about how much credit they created.

I am aware that there is a group of "populists" who think that the US government should not let banks loan money into existence, but rather the US government should merely print up greenbacks and spend them into existence thereby bypassing the need to pay interest on governemnt debt. Imagine the baloon in M1 were the Feds to give out these non interest bearing pieces of paper as in payment of its existing outstanding pieces of interest bearing paper. The gold bugs at Kitco would be instant winners, but at the cost of total financial destruction in the economy.
You who like the Constitution should read Ron Pauls book from back in the 1970's where he describes the pre constitution debates about whether the US government should be allowed to print paper.

I don't know who manufactures depends undergarments, but I think that their common stock may be a good investment. I think the ultimate constipation cure is near for those on the long side of PM's and PM shares. I still stand by my calculations that gold shares will be devistated roughtly beginning near the end of this month and lasting into mid May, and that this early 1998 rally is just about over. These spring rally prices will not be seen again in 1998. And as Dennis Miller says, "Of course I could be wrong; that's just my opinion."

Finally, on the idea of the Turks & Caicos, make sure you deal with people on the islands themselves and not someone in a third country. The ones outside of the Turks & Caicos are not bound by secrecy laws, and the few that I have seen look suspicious to me.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 03:16 - ID#257148)
A friend recently returned from Thailand said things were still relatively calm. Where are you? I thought it was KL. The shops are still full of food, are they? How has rice/real estate changed in Ringitt price since 1 Jan.

Do you fear for your safety or that of your friends/family?

salamat datang
( I hope I got that right, it's been 20 years since I was in KL )

(Thu Mar 05 1998 03:24 - ID#253228)
I feel for you. You posted some time back a description where you said luxuries were gone and you ate only for the stomach. I printed that out and read it to both of my children. They do not really understand the ravages of paper money backed by nothing. It expands until the bubble bursts and then the human suffering begins. I can only listen to your words and am powerless to do anything else. Human suffering is not so much a natural condition as it is a result of government interference in what would otherwise be.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 03:26 - ID#206358) still awake?sleepless nite ...waitting for dow jones to fall..haha!
e mail ,thanks!

Both nikkie and hang seng down 250 points and 530 points now!Afraid more
financial sectors hit!bad debts,short term loans,securities companies in deep troubles, many bad things blow out now!Tell u more

(Thu Mar 05 1998 03:27 - ID#206358) still awake?sleepless nite ...waitting for dow jones to fall..haha!
e mail ,thanks!

Both nikkie and hang seng down 250 points and 530 points now!Afraid more
financial sectors hit!bad debts,short term loans,securities companies in deep troubles, many bad things blow out now!Tell u more

(Thu Mar 05 1998 03:42 - ID#255190)
JIN our Asean corrrespondant
The IMF is blamed. The 'real' problem is more complex than that. But most people can not think that well and feel bad. So news stories which are easy to read about the 'bad IMF' are eaten up by the crowds. Crime is up whenever and where ever bad times hit home ( see Los Angeles, California ) no one is free of this problem. People are angry and do things to others ( burn stores, etc ) because they have hate in their hearts not because the IMF told them to do this.

You know these things. Not trying to 'teach' you. You have shared so much with us and we are thankful for that. You are still online so things are still OK as far as that goes ( ? ) . Your meals are vegitables and a little fish if I remember ( these days? ) . But there is nothing like a simple meal with the ones you love. You are a very lucky man to have your family. I feel sorry for the many who are to far from family and now can not go back to them ( no money to buy ticket back home ) .

I'm sure I speak for many here when I say 'Our very best wishes for you and your family. May you live today and prosper in better times.'

(Thu Mar 05 1998 03:46 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Jin and others -- Lots of discussion has been posted here and elsewheres in the past about what would be happening. Now it is happening. Once it 'comes ashore', there are few ways, if any, for one to take shelter from the storm if one does not already have a 'shelter' built. People need to take the realities/eventualities more to heart. Better to be a month/year/decade early than a day late in having the 'foxhole' ready. Beyond having that done, one will just have to find 'cover' in the best way they can manage. Family and friends will have to help each other the best they can. Perhaps that concept can be extended even further.
Jin, thanks for your invaluable postings. They provide much insight to many here about the 'scene'. Aside from anything in the above, wish I had more to offer in how to cope with the problems and miseries. We too will at some point 'enjoy' the same scene, no doubt. Keep up your postings about it, please.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 03:46 - ID#253228)
I prefer not to post my email address. A combination of paranoia and a desire to remain reclusive. I don't mind from the recesses of my hidden chamber ( my computer room ) exposing myself much like you would talk to the passenger next to you on your next airline flight in a way you might not to your next door neighbor. I don't mind answering your question if you post it. I am going to visit my grandchildren, leaving this Friday for a week, so I'll look for any "chas" post when I return.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 03:49 - ID#258129)
This morning
Dutch bourse opened - 17.79 or -1.66%

(Thu Mar 05 1998 04:18 - ID#252127)

It seems that the only way we can beat them is to pack up and move to Kiwiland, Aussieville - that is if they'll have us.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 04:30 - ID#39845)
Portugal, WHO? What do they mean in the scheme of things.They are sucking on US clacxkers.
I am the mole that gonna make US beg for forgiveness. I already have
the "GO GOLD" cup. Let he who doubt gold be fuel for the currency, bond
greenback inferno.!!!!!!!!!! Viva la BRA. Stand back multi nat. corps.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 04:35 - ID#39845)
US spent all their ammo!
All over Monicas navy blue dress HAHAHAHAHAHA HAHA!!!!!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 04:44 - ID#39845)
Thursday 5 March, 1998 ( 2:39pm AEDT )

The environmental group Greenpeace says it's applied for
oil exploration permits around New Zealand as part of a
campaign to protect the climate from global warming.

Greenpeace says its applied for the permits not to find oil
but to prevent further exploration.

In a statement, the lobby group said it was seeking to claim
the remaining onshore and offshore areas in New Zealand
that had not yet been granted to oil exploration companies.

A Greenpeace spokesman called on the government to
consider the application seriously and not reject it.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 04:48 - ID#39845)
If so ,I can supply more than CBs can gold. If thats OK with
Kitco bros'n'siss, please let me know.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 04:48 - ID#252127)

Are you an attorney? If so, can you answer these
Can a state issue a PM coin and make it legal tender within its own borders?
Is that land contained within various states and termed "the federal lands" truly owned by the federal government, or is it termed such because a state is a part of the USA proper?

I ask these questions because it may possible for gold and silver producing states to constitutionally take the initiative and coin their own money.
A possible problem may be that unpatented claims on "the federal lands" would be the federal government's way of striking back at such "evil states" that issue their own gold currency. Are claims offices state or federal?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 05:03 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Jeil -- Re: constitution -- Yup, it is much like the articles of incorporation for a private corporation. No problem. It simply says how the government is to be run and how the powers are delegated. Also,and along with the Bill-of-Rights, which should have been extended on a number of fronts, IMHO, it tends to limit the extent of governmental intrusions into peoples lives. ( more on that later! ) Actually, it is quite a document, on the face of it! Perhaps not as limiting as the previous Confederation, but it certainly has its points, mainly common defense and a proposition to promote the general welfare and to coin a common currency for the states. Now, that all may be taken as good, bad, or ugly, but the essence should be beneficial to all parties ( states ) .
I think you personally have a problem with any form of authority, and I can see the view point of that, but I also know that I cannot be an army, provide all the infra-structure, make MY coin indispensible, etc, etc. Therefore, I can relinquish certain responsibilities to a common good, and at cost, which should not only wind up costing myself less, but promote the common ways for trade etc. to my mutual benefit. ( No man is an island ) .

Con: There are a few other meanings which you conveniently didn't post. Also, I'm sure your 'CONsort' might not particularly approve of your one of so many meanings, true or otherwise. Go back to the dictionary.

As for the constitution not applying to you because you didn't sign it, no problem. It doesn't apply to anybody or thing in this whole country except for the government ( s ) . It only alludes to you and me by the way of the coinage we might expect to be using and the Bill-of-Rights as being those explicit rights that they may NOT infringe upon. All other powers being delegated to the states and to the people.

As for the effectiveness of the constitution, well, that did basically go out the window when the southern delegates walked out of congress prior to the war of northern agression. Lincoln then began the rule by Executive Order; no other methodology exigent thereafter. Even now, congress is 'by resolution only'. Take that as a lesson to NEVER break an official meeting/session without recording the date of the next!

Somehow, you seem to think that is is better for bankers to loan money into existence than for the elected government to simply print it. In both cases, congress has to authorize it. In both cases, it gets printed and put into circulation. Only in the later case is more due back than was printed. Now, what is the rational behind those thoughts of yours? This is not too say that gold and silver are not the only real authorized currency of this country.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 05:05 - ID#153102)
@Excellence @Pete @JohnD @aj @Paying with gold & silver coin
@Excellence The posts yesterday evening were most exceptional. For those who opened their family story chests to share memory treasures from their personal heritage, I say thank you from my heart. To those who shared the results of their study and experience of these markets, particularly the equities market, I say your generosity is most sincerely appreciated by one lacking much depth of technical analysis expertise.

@Pete Your concern for people communicates itself very genuinely. The desire not to see human suffering explains to me the popularity of the admonition "don't rock the boat" among those of your generation.

@JohnD So clearly expressed by you: government produces nothing, earns nothing, and thus never pays for anything with earnings. The power granted to the federal to borrow without the express consent of the States for each instance of borrowing has proved another fatal flaw in the 1787 Constitution. For by making the "necessity and emergency" for their borrowing permanent, the federal have slipped all bounds and restraints. This state of affairs, this governance in bankruptcy by baldfaced lies and clever deceits, is truly now devouring the substance and spirit of the nation and will, as you say, not end easy.

@aj Thank you your post. I think you express yourself very well.

@Paying with gold & silver coin: So long as this Constitution is the law of the land, you can still demand local non-governmental adherence to the provision "No State shall ... make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debt" if and when you so desire. You must use federal reserve notes to "discharge" federal taxes. ( You "discharge" with FRN's because you cannot "pay debt with debt". ) You must also use FRN's to "discharge debt" to the Corporate State which has everywhere been created by the constitutional State to collect FRN's as taxes and to "discharge" any paper debt on paper from federally chartered or guaranteed institutions or corporations. You will likely not find a lawyer to help you. Nobody connected with government is going to give you the law; you must exert yourself to have it. But if you look, you can find people who can give useful counsel on process and procedure and deceitful legal terminology which is where they will try to trip you up or wear you down by resort to the appeals courts. Because the substance of the matter is plain.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 05:08 - ID#266105)
@ziva was always missing

nth wierd

(Thu Mar 05 1998 05:15 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Mozel -- In agreement, but why in H__l would I want to pay the bloodsuckers with 'precious' if they really want paper. It's not like I'M going to change the system in doing it, even if they will allow it. It is not like I'm going to escape the system in doing so. Perhaps you'll help me out with that particular 'mind-set' of those who feel 'adamant'.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 05:17 - ID#233199)
So...... a short squeeze eh?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 05:20 - ID#173274)
@the scene
SWP1 -- EH; Where, where?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 05:21 - ID#39845)
Like your stuff man. This has to go down as quote of our times, incredible sexual tailspin... every kind of sex freak from
homosexuals to nymphomaniacs... Gobble, gobble, gobble. Couldn't
get enough of it. Sex and speed. Wow. Like oh, God! A twenty-four
hour climax that can go on for days. I'd like to turn on the whole world
for a moment... just for a moment. I'm greedy. I'd like to keep most of
it for myself and a few others, a few of my friends... so that I'd radiate

(Thu Mar 05 1998 05:23 - ID#233199)
Short squeeze where

(Thu Mar 05 1998 05:25 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Mozel -- One addendum to the last to you. I assume within all that that using FRNs is not considered a 'benefit' provided by our 'benefactors'. You know what 'benefit' alludes to, right?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 05:26 - ID#233199)
Short sqeeze where..?

OOps! sorry ... that last post slipped..

I must have dozed off and dreamt it... I better wipe this drool off my chin and go to bed ....

(Thu Mar 05 1998 05:26 - ID#266105)
@hedgehog: the stanley cup, ollie?

( snort! )

(Thu Mar 05 1998 05:30 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Goodnight all. I'll have to pick up the rest of whatever later. Hey looky there. 295 April gold so far tonight. 294 anyone? Time near at hand for a bounce, at least!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 05:37 - ID#238295)
POG down $1.80 this morning -- looks like I was right about the Asian selloff being BEARISH FOR BULLION.

Next rally will be very important. If we don't take out $300 decisively, good chance that $290 will be breached.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 05:57 - ID#153102)
You ought not and, in fact, cannot "discharge" debt with any federal or State agency or federally chartered or guaranteed corporation or other legal entity except with FRN's. I suggest you reread what I posted. Tenders of payment in gold and silver coin in local, non-governmental transactions for things like food, clothing, and shelter are lawful so long as you have not entered into a prior agreement for FRN's and so long as the Constitution is the law of the land. Make the use of it that you can. I'm certainly not suggesting you will be able to reform anything by indiscriminately paying with gold and silver coin.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 06:02 - ID#26793)
Japanese bribery scandal widens to Bank of Japan

(Thu Mar 05 1998 06:03 - ID#153102)
The authority for saying no benefit attaches to the use of FRN per se is Thorington V Smith. The case is on the internet.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 06:05 - ID#26793)
Japan auto imports suffer worst drop in 27 years!!!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 06:11 - ID#26793)
Indonesian rupiah falls to 10,000 level

(Thu Mar 05 1998 06:16 - ID#153102)
It looks like there is something to this wave stuff after all. It's very surprising to me to see the Japanese in paralysis like a deer transfixed by a car's headlights. The Chinese government is by reports showing much more adaptability than I expected.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 06:18 - ID#238295)
gold bull
NJ: Looks like you owe me a beer, unfortunately.

Bill Buckler; Your conservaive approach to calling a gold bull has again been justified. We cannot say that a major gold bull has begun until POG decisively breaks the 100 day MA and $300 with great conviction and then holds well above these levels on a retest. My hat is off to you.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 06:20 - ID#26793)
OPEC lacking unity in oil price crisis

(Thu Mar 05 1998 06:24 - ID#26793)
@Mozel: Here are some Chinese insights on currency matters

(Thu Mar 05 1998 06:27 - ID#210235)
@ALL - hamlet needs a hedge
G'morning. Hamlet has an interesting case. Young, cash-poor risk-taker gets his first break. Enough of a high-tech, high-flying stock that he could sell it all and buy a house with cash for the wife and kiddies, but with no change. But if he holds it for long-term cap. gains, he saves the 40% tax, has a nice nest egg.

Being a risk-taker, he uses collateral on the stock as his down payment, and borrows the difference to get them into their first house. BUT, he's nervous about the markets. INFLATION DEFLATION, END OF THE BULL.

He maybe doesn't sleep too well at night, now. Built his house on the shifting sands of the markets and debt. Reads this group, and would like our experts to help him find the right hedge. Really wants to save that 40%. Asks about gold stocks as that hedge.

What would you do?

A GoldTrader
(Thu Mar 05 1998 06:35 - ID#6064)
Gold Bull
What's this about a Gold Bull? Did I miss something here?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 06:38 - ID#29082)
Bright spot in PMs
PALLADIUM: Futures rose at the New York Mercantile Exchange because of worries about delayed shipments from Russia, the world's largest producer. The March contract gained $3.30 to $241.35 a troy ounce. Robin Alssid, precious metals department manager at Mitsubishi International Corp., said that"the market is increasingly nervous about what we'll
see out of Russia."

(Thu Mar 05 1998 06:38 - ID#238295)
POG rebounding somewhat. Now down $1.20

(Thu Mar 05 1998 06:41 - ID#26793)
If I really like the house I would sell the stocks and pay cash for it expecting it to decline in price later.

Otherwise I would sell the stocks, buy gold bullion 25% and T-Bills 75% and rent living space.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 06:59 - ID#330175)
Looks like a BAD day for 'paper' and my computer 'tech(?) guy if he doesn't get
his STUPID ass 'out here' and fix my e-mail function along with the other twenty thingys he screwed-up ( all these thingys were workin when I brought the damn machine into the 'shop' ( my mistake...EH!!! ) ...

(Thu Mar 05 1998 07:01 - ID#330175)
@ Cape Breton
S+P Futures down 12.10 ( Thankx Intel ) ~~~~~~~~~~

(Thu Mar 05 1998 07:03 - ID#330175)
Anyone got the CBS GOLD futures site address as my 'tech guy'---------
erased my god-darn bookmarks....among other things****---* go team gold*

(Thu Mar 05 1998 07:13 - ID#238422)
John Disney
My brother John,

By the way, it's a good pount that nobody cares
about Russian miners and your reasoning seems
right too... When I tried to find out ANY believable
numbers on Norilsk, I got the whole bunch of them -
from ZERO to ZILLION. I'm now sure that even Boris
the Ruler of Russia has no idea what is going on.

Just considering that your bigger life experience gives
you better chances of reading correctly between the lines,
than my life experience, I would agree with your readings...
However, I still have a funny feeling that this is all
some kind of extremely simple game played both by
longs and shorts in PL market. Just ask yourself a question -
who is benefiting from rumors of "Russian stockpile is gone"
or "Russian stockpile is huge". I think you got good logical
way of looking at different things...

Anyway, I have no data I can trust or even send to you for
your consideration, but I am still hoping to learn something.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 07:16 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Sorry, correction: point=pount.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 07:17 - ID#266105)
@momma tol'me not to come

Brother Oris, didja ever see Solaris?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 07:19 - ID#289357)

Elizabeth Hill Silver Deposit: Munni Munni Leases


DATE: 1998/3/5


HOMEX - Sydney



East Coast Minerals N.L. ( ECM ) 70%

Legend Mining NL ( LEG ) 30%

The following announcement has been prepared to inform the ASX and

shareholders about the Joint Venture activity in respect to the

Elizabeth Hill silver deposit at Munni Munni.


After examination of all drilling results ( announced to the Australian

Stock Exchange on 11/02/1998 ) the consulting geologist noted that some

results did not conform to his drill log noted, together with visible

silver sighted in the core ( the re-assayed results were determined by

Fire Assay Method F660 ) .

The re-assays of these sections produced some changes in the

previously announced drill results ( see table ) .

An example of the coarse grained or nugget effect can be seen in Hole

1, sample 1.5m - 2.25m, which previously assayed at 504 g/t but the

most recent assay of 57,150 g/t is in keeping with the consulting

geologists notes in the core log book.

Hole No. Section ( m ) Previous New Ag Ag average Ag high

reported average ( g/t ) intersection


1 0-3.75 0.9% 2.03% 20,300 g/t 57,150 g/t

4.5-6.0 0.16% 0.16% 1,600 g/t 1,700 g/t


0-6.0 0.61% 1.31% 13,100 g/t 57,150 g/t

2 0-3.0 0.19% 0.31% 3,100 g/t 9,270 g/t

15.9-22.6 0.35% 0.36% 3,600 g/t 15,700 g/t

3* 0-3.9 0.83% 1.54% 15,400 g/t 28,055 g/t

9.6-12.2 0.81% 0.81% 8,100 g/t 9,080 g/t

4* 0-4.8 0.77% 0.86% 8,600 g/t 15,465 g/t

4.8-8.2 0.35% 0.35% 3,500 g/t 3,584 g/t

5 0-4.4 0.09% 0.43% 4,300 g/t 6,360 g/t

6 0-6.6 0.03% 0.75% 7,500 g/t 19,190 g/t

7* 0-11.1 0.42% 0.60% 6,000 g/t 12,950 g/t

8 8.1-11.0 1.23% 1.23% 12,300 g/t 36,430 g/t

9 13.5-17.0 Grossly


10 4.5-5.2 2.49% 2.49% 24,900 g/t 24,915 g/t

11 4.4-5.1 0.36% 4.27% 42,700 g/t 42,730 g/t

12* 2.9-3.7 0.24% 0.24% 2,400 g/t 2,369 g/t

Hole 9 has been especially affected by poor core recovery. Therefore

an accurate representative assay of this silver section is not


*Holes 3,4,7 and 12 ended in mineralisation when the holes were

abandoned due to the excessive core loss.


The Joint Venture partners reviewed progress of the significant

metallurgical work being undertaken on the the bulk sample. This work

is being undertaken to determine the best way to process the ore and

to provide a higher confidence level in relation to the silver

content given the difficulties in drilling due to poor recovery of


The considerable time taken on sample testing and recovery procedures

on the bulk sample has been a learning curve; however the information

gained through the process will be invaluable.

The Elizabeth Hill ore is complex and unique with the presence of

native silver in lump and wire form adding complexity to the problems

of crushing and processing. The work has been slow to progress;

however is nearing completion.

Independent Metallurgical Consultants have been working on the

bulk sampling in order to determine which of the gravity/float

methods is best suited to optimise silver recovery.

Two independent laboratories will report their final findings.

Options include:

( a ) Treatment on site by purchasing or hiring equipment.

( b ) Selling concentrate locally or off-shore.

( c ) Treatment in other plants.


The new program to further explore the silver deposit will consist of:

1. Lowering the de-watering level from 90m to 110m.

2. Replace old head frame with new 11m head frame, winder, skip

and install railway lines to use 1 tonne trucks, enabling significant

hoisting and bulk handling capacity to be conducted which will

facilitate ore handling.

3. Extend the shaft from current 85m level to 105m level.

4. Development of a new 20m crosscut from the 102 meter level to the

west. Once the orebody is intercepted a sill drive will delineate the

strike extent of the orebody. A rise in ore commencing adjacent to the

crosscut will link the 102m level to the existing crosscut on the 82m

level. It will be developed at an angle of about 70 degrees to the


The work will be conducted in accordance with the Department of

Minerals and Energy regulations.

L White


Information in this report which relates to geology and mineralisation

has been based on data compiled by G.B. Barnes, B. Sc. Dip.Ed. AusIMM,

who is a Corporate member of the Australasian Institute of Mining and

Metallurgy and who has the relevant experience as a Competent Person

as defined in the Australasian Code for Reporting of Identified

Minerals Resources and Ore Reserves in relation to the mineralisation

being reported on. This report accurately reflects the information

compiled by the person.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 07:25 - ID#258427)
TED...Is this what you want...??

(Thu Mar 05 1998 07:29 - ID#258427)'s futures...for a lot of stuff..

(Thu Mar 05 1998 07:35 - ID#31868)
My God, what a string of bad luck
I have had the past three weeks. Eating crow is a humbling experience. I have just now gotten my phone lines fixed, well, hmmmm, these other string of problems I shall not burden you folks with. However, I want to let all know that I will answer each and every email, and I apologize for not responding yet. Some sixty or so messages.

I would not wish the last three weeks of my life on anyone, and I mean anyone. Still here, eating crow in LI. and wearing a clown nose so everyone knows not to take me seriously.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 07:39 - ID#289357)
Rule #1 - Don't sweat the small stuff.

Rule #2 - It's all small stuff.

Very glad to have you back.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 07:46 - ID#410194)
Gold and stock market news
As mentioned yesterday, talks were circulating worldwide yesterday among key central bank players about how to find a way to get rid of more Gold... and lots of it! Gold is not out of the doldrums and there is some evidence showing up again that its problems could last many more years, especially if the current non-inflationary environment lasts.

Overnight, some dealers expected some light short covering to occur after the drop of the last 2 days in Gold prices but instead they saw even more selling coming in! Some Japanese interest is now expecting Gold to even back down to $290 for now.

Also, there are some rumours that a central bank had withdrawn some Gold from the leasing market and that's what caused the minor hike in lease rates last week.

As for the much lower opening in the North-American stock markets expected this morning, some people have too much of a high expectation once again ( read some Kitco comments of the last 12 hours ) for a huge drop to sustain and a few are even calling for major top!

Be careful.... and be realistic. Intel may not derail this strong bull market and realize that a correction was well over due!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 07:47 - ID#20748)
Old Gold
Just you wait until 14:30.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 07:48 - ID#31868)
Many thanks for the kind words and thoughts. Truly appreciated, I am on the mend and retightening my internal lug nuts. bbl

(Thu Mar 05 1998 07:52 - ID#419147)
Don't you think it's a bit funny that when stocks are raising everybody is speaking of 'stock market going up' and 'rallies' and when stocks are falling everybody is speaking of 'market corretion', 'profit taking' and in the worst cast 'speculative pressure'?


(Thu Mar 05 1998 07:55 - ID#288399)
My favorite word used when the markets go down is "consolidation". In other words, its a GOOD thing when they go down. What a bunch of spinning!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 08:14 - ID#348169)
@Sharefin and OZ!
Sharefin - Just checked back on last nights commentary and I hope you didn't think that I thought that you would seriously harbour ill feelings to our brothers and sisters in OZ! If in any way I inadvertently offended my friends in OZ, let me say that my words were in total jest and I offer this quote of the day in honour of all 'down under'. ( Yes that includes Kiwi territory! ) :
"The wind and the waves are always on the side of the bestnavigators."
- Edward Gibbon

(Thu Mar 05 1998 08:15 - ID#341189)
Your points are well taken regarding both gold and stocks. However, what is happening re earnings is not news; it was quite obvious at the end of 97 that the PC's that the average person buys had been cut in price by almost 50% and that the industry could hardly expect to double sales to maintain revenue. And with SE Asia's currencies freefalling, there would have to be enormous pressure on prices received by US manufacturers in many areas. Despite this, like a good Bull psychology is apt to be, the market prices for stock continued on their merry way after a short pause in Jan. I don't expect a one day change in this psychology; it takes a long time for participants in a long term bull market to realise they are on thin ice. As to gold, I don't believe anything put out in the press. I just believe it's cheap at hell. And if it gets cheaper, all the better. Someday, when the S&P dividend yield gets up over 6%, I expect I'll be doing the same with stocks again, all the while most people are saying they're dead.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 08:31 - ID#26793)
S&P downgrades Bank of Queensland...poor capital ratios etc.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 08:31 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Mozel -- Re: Your 5:57 -- Many thanks for the clarification on paying in metals vs FRNs.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 08:38 - ID#26793)
Everyone should read this Crystallex news. Very disturbing.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 08:45 - ID#26793)
More Crystallex news

(Thu Mar 05 1998 09:00 - ID#288155)
Donald, Now there are two who think China will not devalue!
Stephen Roach has thoughtful piece in FT : Land of the Rising Dragon--
There are, in fact, three channels through which this venting could take place: the currency, the pace of reforms, or the economys growth rate. I am convinced that the currency channel is shut off for the foreseeable future. Its that simple. Western skeptics may think devaluation is only a matter of time, but Chinas leaders HAVE MADE A POLITICAL DECISION TO SUPPORT THE CURRENCY, a decision with obvious and important economic consequences.

...This contrast between China and Japan suggests a new Asian leadership is emerging in the wake of the crisis. ...China has embarked on a new path with determination. By resisting the temptation of competitive currency devaluation, China is exposing its inefficient state-owned enterprises to an ever-greater competitive challenge. But that is a calculated risk they seem prepared to take. And so I am left with a sense of a post-Crisis Asia that could well be dominated by the ascendancy of China and the decline of Japan."
Stephen Roach, chief economist, director of global economics
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Jin, would that no-one ever had to go through the enormous difficulties with which you are faced. In my view, a strict gold-silver standard would provide honest money for honest people. Until we all--working together--can wrench our futures from the greedy hands of bankers, I can only express my concern for the safety and well-being of yourself and your family. With the sincere hope that we can meet with happiness on the other side of this mountain of trouble, best regards.

Tolerant1@.Week.of.Bad.Luck Missed you, glad you are back! Look at it this way--perhaps your worked through the entire years ration of bad luck! Only good things ahead! ( ? ) {:- )

(Thu Mar 05 1998 09:02 - ID#26793)
Kinross (Amax) news

(Thu Mar 05 1998 09:10 - ID#348286)
@Asensio & Crystallex
Asensio is a known short seller, & Crystallex has begun proceedings against Arsensio Hall & Company.
Stockhouse is following this developing story closely and today should be very interesting.


(Thu Mar 05 1998 09:11 - ID#26793)
Malaysian bank associated with political party is downgraded

(Thu Mar 05 1998 09:14 - ID#348286)
Bart the GIF at the top of the page is not updating. Any way to bring it back to life? Thanks.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 09:17 - ID#340459)
@Realistic, Thanks for your 7:46 post, Do you any latest news..

(Thu Mar 05 1998 09:19 - ID#197310)
copper up 3 00pts
wow if the quote line is correct thats a big break up,
should have a positive effect on Gold stocks?Anyone
see Larry Williams on CBN last night?talking about the
gold of Mt. Siani and his explorations there,pretty interesting.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 09:22 - ID#26793)
Morning European precious metals comment

(Thu Mar 05 1998 09:27 - ID#258427)
JMAN...DBC agrees with you !!
May High Grade Copper

(Thu Mar 05 1998 09:29 - ID#419147)
help neede with old Russian gold coins
I have particular interest in the coins minted before/during WW1, the gold Nikolais. Millions of them were mintedtheese days and in Eastern-Europe/Russia they still are an important 'source' of scrap gold.
Does any1 here knows the EXACT gold content of a coin?


(Thu Mar 05 1998 09:33 - ID#340459)
Nasdaq dowb 45 points at opening

(Thu Mar 05 1998 09:41 - ID#348129)
@FIXED MARKETS: INTEL not opened - anytime a stock is about to crash, they delay the opening.
Dow 8468.00 -71.24 ( -0.83% )
Nasdaq 1710.84 -48.86 ( -2.78% )
These markets are fixed to the upside - no point in shorting - yet.....

(Thu Mar 05 1998 09:45 - ID#197310)
Y2K bug,
CBN had a great piece on it last nightand said it plans to have
a regular update on progress.Advocated taking money out of
banks to live for 3 or4 months even stock up on food,pretty
serious stuff.can get the piece at

(Thu Mar 05 1998 09:48 - ID#228283)
You might want to buy Intel CALLS about an hour

from now. The NYSE specialist will run the stock as soon as the dust clears. BTDT bought a tee shirt. Buy when blood runs in the streets!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 09:49 - ID#340459)
I wonder what it takes for POG to rise, all traditional reasoning has been thrashed
IMHO, Gold has to regain and rebuild it's image soon. The CB's being largest possessor's of Gold have stupidly diluted their own and metal's worth with strategies that have not paid off and hurt everyone.
Mine owners, miner's, customers of this product, Investor's etc..

I lay the blame squarely on Central Banker's who are inadvertantly digging their own and our graves.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 09:55 - ID#57232)
Gold weakening
Old Gold: Thanks for your words of wisdom on the gold markets. My intuitive guess is that the US markets are so strong they can survive an Intel earnings droop. However, if we have an international financial crisis triggered by Japan ( or China devaluation plus Japan ) things could be very bearish indeed for Gold.

The CB's have apparently loaned out 8,000 tonnes, according to Frank Veneroso, and could theoretically loan out 8,000 tonnes more if necessary if we had a real financial conflagration. If something like this happens, I think we will have some warning in the behavior of the US dollar.

Personally I doubt a full-blown financial crisis, and expect the only bearish forces to be coming from SEAsia, as you say. I would guess then that we will not go below around $280/oz. Agreed?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 09:55 - ID#256254)
Don't get to distracted. The game is in the bonds. Opended at 6.04 being positioned to help the market ( IMO ) been moving up ever since. Now 6.051. When was the last time that bonds and the market dropped together. Not a good sign for the market IMHO. But a good sign for bullion.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 10:05 - ID#57232)
Best of luck!
Jin: Sorry to hear that the Indonesian politicians could not get their act together, and things are getting worse! I guess that is to be expected the world around. Who ever heard of a politician that could get anything done quickly?

Hope your family is safe! It will be our turn eventually ( years? ) -- the crime rise of 25x worries me -- would happen here too. Too many people here who consider support from the government a right, and not a priveledge. Also in the 20's and 30's many people here lived off the land. Not any more. Just wait till the US government has no money!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 10:13 - ID#340459)
Contrary to popular belief, Japanese have turned out to be far from intelligent, they backed the
wrong horse in WWII, had Nuke bombs dropped on them that killed hundreds of thousands and maimed scores more. Then they were compelled to work 60 hr work weeks thru 1960's to 1980's, lived in tiny and sparse habitat's and travelling distances to work in factories that were being financially skimmed off at the top. They built considerable savings through skimping and that are now being evaporated rapidly in 1990's.

And the Western mind called them extremely intelligent and a great threat.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 10:16 - ID#57232)
Alternative Gold Scenario
All: We have several posters such as OldMan that believe that the US markets are in a strong bullmarket rally -- so we must have strong negative forces to push the markets down. As long as Japan and China remain on an even keel, it is very likely that all the the Intel earnings trouble, or other earnings problems with the market will just add turmoil and uncertainty. That is bullish for gold.

I am going to hang on my gold investments for now, but I will not buy more until I see evidence for a rally, or gold revisits $280/oz.

The ony behavior that will cause me to sell my current gold investments will be a full-blown US dollar currency crisis.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 10:20 - ID#258427)
JTF....Why in a USD currence crisis would
you SELL your PM investments...seems that would be the time to I misunderstand?? Look at what happened to the Rupee...down 90%. Please enlighten "the unwashed"...thanx

(Thu Mar 05 1998 10:21 - ID#340459)
There are no laws anymore and No one is sure of their financial genuis..
Bonds, Stocks, Gold, Oil, Commodities and Currencies all are falling in a state of low inflation...,

Maybe AG, Rubin and so called wise are no smarter than some of us, IMHO

(Thu Mar 05 1998 10:23 - ID#246224)
are you talking about stox or bullion. If bulion why would you dump it when the US$ is in trouble??? Seems just the opposite of what I'd expect.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 10:25 - ID#340459)
@JTF, Ref your Post. In a state of full blown US $ crisis, I will BUY gold and not sell it, Gold is
low because USD is strong, IMHO. I have noticed that Gold rises with any weakness in Uncle Sam's greenbacks..

(Thu Mar 05 1998 10:25 - ID#342282)
Jeil re trip
I can appreciate your preference. Hope you have a great time with the grandkids. This will give me time to organize the ideas lumbering thru the dome. Thanx

(Thu Mar 05 1998 10:29 - ID#246224)
I have come to that tentative conclusion as well, Mr Goose. Bonds are were the big money is. That market is vastly larger than the equities markets. I tried to post earlier that I thought bonds and the 30 Yr LOng Bond in particular are like a gauge. There is significant correlation between Long Bond movement and POG trends.

A long bond rate below 6.5% to me seems like a green light. 6.5 to 7.5 and amber light. 7.5 to 9.0 a red light and above 9% is alarms and flashing lights.

The Long Bond activity seems to presage equities markets activities by a year or so. Also the Long Bond levels pretty closely match the POG from 1977 to date in terms of range and trend.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 10:31 - ID#348169)
Midas - I agree with most of what you say about the Central Bankers stupidity, but not with your conclusion. Gold's time will come regardless of what bureucrats say and do. Remember - 'You can fool some of the people all of the time and most of the people some of the time, BUT you can't fool ALL of the people ALL of the time.' Somebody please e-mail at and remind me of who it was that made the above statement.
"Life can only be understood backwards;
but it must be lived foreward" ---Soren Kierkgaard

(Thu Mar 05 1998 10:32 - ID#234311)
jman, your 9:45
The Sunday Times of London reports that British senior officials are trying to draw up plans for major infrastructure collapse ( power, phone, travel, water, food distribution ) in the aftermath of the Y2K rollover. See
for the full article. Hope I made no typos in the URL.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 10:33 - ID#57232)
Why gold stocks would go down during a dollar crisis
BillD: I do not profess to be an expert in this matter, but the best example is what happend when the dollar crashed in 1987, and the market crashed in Black October a few months later. The gold stocks doubled when people began to realize the dollar was in trouble, but those gold stock investors who held on during October saw their gold stock equity levels drop 50% or more. Took more than a year to recover, too!

Gold bullion is a different matter. That might survive a dollar and market crash -- but AG is a pro at keeping markets afloat, and now has a powerful tool to push gold down ( for a time ) by using derivatives. I can give you no solid proof ( like QED mathwise ) that this will happen, just a hunch based on the performance of gold bullion over the last two years.

If you are willing to take a wild ride -- gold bug surfers only -- you might be able to ride the gold stocks up during the uncertainty before an equity market crash, and make a fortune. However, you need to jump off before the 300 foot equity market Tsunami crashes!

Long - term, gold will go up -- and returns on gold stock investment will be even better after a market equity crash -- for those who saved their cash.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 10:43 - ID#334219)
JTF on stocks during a crisis
JTF, you are right that the golds went down in 1987, but as measured by the Toronto Gold Index, they went down only 40% during that crash. That isn't too bad if you consider that they were at their high of a 30 months bull ( up 160% from summer 96 and almost 300% from January 1985. Now gold are not in the same situation, they are cheaper now than they were in 85 or 92...a crisis that would cause gold to rise even modestly would be bullish for gold stocks...very bullish in my opinion. The key here is the level from where we start.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 10:45 - ID#57232)
Please see my prior post
Midas: My previous post will clarify -- I think you and I are not really disagreeing. I should have said that I would initially buy gold stocks if I saw evidence of a solid gold rally and instability in the dollar. But -- an outright crash in the dollar is a nearly certain trigger for a later equity market crash. At that point I would be watching my gold stock investments very carefully -- re what happened in 1987. Hope that clarifies.

I would also try to save cash on the side, and buy gold bullion on the way down, if we did have a full-blown gold bear during a market crash. Would be a real bargain at a market implosion-induced bottom -- even more that now.

In my opinion, IMHO, the gold market is at risk -- equities and bullion -- until the 'powers that be' have nothing to gain by trying to prop the equity markets up. As I recall in 1929, the best time to buy gold and gold stocks was after the crash, not before. There may be analogues to this in SEAsia right now -- but I don't really know.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 10:46 - ID#340459)
@Allen(USA)) Ref your below mentioned comment, can you kindly elaborate..
"A long bond rate below 6.5% to me seems like a green light. 6.5 to 7.5 and amber light. 7.5
to 9.0 a red light and above 9% is alarms and flashing lights.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 10:50 - ID#57232)
Comments appreciated
CC: Your point is well-taken, but a 40% loss that can be avoided is worth it. Also -- this time may much worse for the equities. My guess is that if we do have a crash, it will be more drawn out that it was in 1987, but I could be wrong.

There will be two problems for the gold bug Tsunami surfer -- one will be when to jump out to avoid the equity market crash, and the other will be when it is safe to jump back in -- after the crash. My guess is that the latter will be easier -- simply because we have been in a gold bear for so long.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 10:54 - ID#340459)
Are the curbs in at the Big Board since morning, anyone watching CNBC will know ?
Gold is not faring better in this environment either. I think 99% of Investors do not even think of Gold now as most hot shot wall street manager's laugh PM's off as refuge of the insane.

Gold is indeed in deep trouble due to CB action and investor perception.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 10:58 - ID#57232)
Rapidly rising interest rates a warning sign!
Allen ( USA ) I agree with you -- an excellent monitor of general market stability. When the US dollar tanked in 1987, interest rates took off! There was a nice 3 to 4 month window where gold stock investing was very profitable before all equities crashed on Black October -- Oct 17 ( ? ) .

(Thu Mar 05 1998 11:06 - ID#338289)
All: Y2K, Utilities, and the Titanic
All: Here is the last installment to the article that I posted yesterday. I agree completely with the author's outlook on why he is an alarmist on the subject of Y2K. No one knows exactly what is going to happen. I've spent 25+ years in the coding trenches in half a dozen industries doing mostly financial applications so I'm qualified to comment on this subject. The BIG problem is that most everyone, businesses and governments, have waited far too long to get up to speed. If the efforts that are just starting to be made had been started in 1995 we would be in good shape. There are going to be problems, what I can not predict, but we will learn more as each month goes by. The most important thing I can get across to you is that you need to look closely at this subject and make some preparations over the next year and half. Good luck and good trading all.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 11:07 - ID#330175)
BillD.................Thanks bro~~~~~~~~~~~~
Yup,that was what I needed ( ? ) ---the April Gold box-score...Through NO help from my 'computer-guy',my e-mail service has now come back from the DEAD and i can start spewing more crap out into cyber-SPACE ( watch out Earl!! ) ----a 'weaker-man' would be drinkin already!?!

Strad Master
(Thu Mar 05 1998 11:13 - ID#250297)
"Come and get it!!!"
ALL: Just heard a radio spot from an LA home equity mortgage lender: "We'll lend you up to 125% of your home's value whether you have equity in that home or not. How about using the money to buy that "hot" stock you've been hearing about?" Geez...Talk about leading the lambs to slaughter! I suspect that the rapid rise in bankruptsies we've seen is directly attributable to such loose lending policies. When I was a kid and wanted to get my first credit card, I had to jump through hoops to establish creditworthiness.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 11:13 - ID#57232)
Addendum Logging off --
To Reduce any confusion regarding my recent posts, it would not be a dollar crash per se that would cause gold stocks and possibly gold bullion prices to drop -- it would be the subsequent eguities market crash -- and what AG might do to the price of gold bullion to try to hold everything togther, IMVHO. Perhaps others have more insight on this, or can draw parralels to what is happening in SEAsia.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 11:21 - ID#238295)
Sharp POG drop this morning seems to reflect strong rally in greenback. But gold stocks still holding up very well considering.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 11:23 - ID#57232)
Great post!
Stradmaster: Makes you wonder doesn't it? Perhaps we will not have our market crash yet -- simply because things can get even crazier. It may be that there is more potential equity for the market to be squeezed out of unsuspecting suckers.

Perhaps someone here can enlighten us on the craziness of other market bulls before the bubble finally bursts.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 11:26 - ID#280215)
Strad Master
You are so right! Remember when it was actually exciting to get that letter of approval to get that first credit card. After filling out all of the info, I was thinking, " Gosh I hope I qualify!".

Today, I personally know people who have filed bankruptcy and still receive pre-approved credit cards for lines of credit in the 10's of thousands, and all they have to do is sign on the dotted line, no questions asked. To me that would mean the credit card company isn't even doing credit checks. I could be wrong on that point, but it sure seems that way.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 11:29 - ID#210235)
Donald's 06:41 is for you. Also, see JTF's 10:45, re gold stocks in a crash. It definately applies. I see you had some other responses, too. I don't qualify as an expert, so will pass. Best of luck to you.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 11:32 - ID#348169)
@Old Gold
Old Gold - I wasn't around yesterday to read all the comments but I'm sure that someone must have mentioned that yesterday's drop ( and probably follow-up today ) must be partly attributed to the Bank of Portugal's governor's remarks to the European Union's monetary subcommittee. He made pointed negative remarks about Gold and this once again has emphasised the fear that many European banks 'might' be selling a lot of gold in the near future.

The Analyst
(Thu Mar 05 1998 11:32 - ID#293343)
Gold is indeed in deep trouble???
Everything is relative. I consider gold to be the measure of wealth.
Wealth is measured by what it can buy, so if gold goes down, it can
buy less, and therefore is worth less. But, gold has always been the prefered form in which to accumulate wealth. Gold in deep trouble means other forms, paper, stock, bonds, are not in trouble, which means there is stability in the economy. Long after every form of paper money has become worthless, gold will keep its value. When gold is cheap, all it means is that your paper is doing well, and you can afford more gold. These times will be looked back upon as a "golden" age. Like all golden ages it will come to an end. As soon as a nuclear bomb is discharged in hostility, watch gold zoom to 500. Nukes are in the hands of more people each year, and to think that one will not be set off in the next few years is optimistic. The stock market is vastly over priced, and will correct. People in the stock market are spoiled. They don't know that you can lose money in the stock market. When people stop focusing on maximizing their return, and start focusing on maintaining their wealth, they'll buy gold.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 11:39 - ID#252150)
Midas@Your 10:13 Re:Japan
I found it to be insensitive in the extreme, if not outright racist, & not just because my Daughter-in-law is Japanese.

What the hell does the fact that they were nuked because the U.S. wanted to test their nukes, have to do with the intelligence of the average Japanese? The U.S. committed an atrocity on them, & you try to put the blame back on them. And don't give me the bs about doing it to shorten the war & save American lives. Curtis Lemay stated in his biography that he was against it because they were weeks, if not days from surrendering.

The fact that they had to work 60 hr weeks & live in cramped apts, was forced on them by their gov't which had to adapt to western style capitalism.

If they are going thru a bad spell financially/economically at this particular time, the fault lies with the corrupt politicians/bureaucrats
which have deceived them. Admittedly, the U.S. economy is doing well now, despite the corrupt politicians/bureaucrats but you too will hit the wall & when you do you may fall a lot further than the Japanese.

Don't count Japan out. If they can get rid of the the bloodsucking parasites that now run their Country, then they will be a force to be reckoned with. They now realize that they can't compete with the U.S. on a level playing field, because the U.S. keeps tilting the field. Their future lies in newly formed alignments with China & the rest of Asia which are now occuring.

The Japanese have an ancient culture that is much richer than the U.S. Disneyland culture. They have tried to embrace U.S. & western style culture & it does'nt work for them. They need to re-examine their priorities & adjust to a style of capitalism that is more in line with the soul & character of Japan. Then again, they will probably always be like the rest of us & end up being ruled by the ambitious , intelligent sociopaths of the world. Unfortunatley, that has always been & will always be the human condition.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 11:40 - ID#22956)
welcome back...
ted. 'bout time. can you spell B-A-C-K-U-P?? ( doh! ) . read more of oldgolds same-ole-same-ole-blah-blah-blah... ( zzzzzz ) ... ( skip ) .... ( skip ) .... ( broken ) .............. ( ugh ) ...


(Thu Mar 05 1998 11:41 - ID#348129)
@Canadian Gold EQUITIES
Queenstake QTR up on heavy volume and Francsisco Gold FGX up after
being halted on news. This stands out especially on an otherwise dismal day for AU equities ..........

Carpe Aurem
(Thu Mar 05 1998 11:44 - ID#342242)
First Prescott, now Munk?
Well, its official. Prescott "voluntarily resigned" yesterday ( from BHP ) not much surprise there. But, did anyone catch the rumour about the resignation of Peter Melnuk from Clark USA. Apparently he's going to be TAKING PETER MUNK'S JOB ( at ABX ) !?!?!?!?!?Anyone out there, please comment. This could be very significant.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 11:45 - ID#22956)
my guess is a mix between JFK and Groucho Marx and BC....a hybrid if you will.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 11:48 - ID#340459)
@Stradmaster. Agree with your view, Most of my current woes emante from "Borrow and Buy" syndrome.
I remember some time ago an article on how Visa Cards were offered by mail to several names that turned out to be 7-8 yr old school going kids in Canada and this created a bad image for that financial institution couple of yrs back.

They were more than 100,000 Canadian Personal bankruptcies in 1997 and ultimately ALL of us pay through Taxes / higher Card rates etc. The Bank always collects from others and Profits through all stages of the cycle of Inflation, Recession, Deflation or whatever economic clime that is prevalent.

But Knowing the ailment does not assure of a cure. We all know that expecting a 30% return in equities while GDP/GNP growth is mere 2-3% is insanity but Money keeps pouring in because of effective sale of un realisable dre

(Thu Mar 05 1998 11:48 - ID#410194)
How about some Silver news?
Just so that some of you goldbugs can take a break from the painful Gold activities of these days...

By the way, I noticed a message here from last night about someone who expressed his wish to buy some S&P puts in a hurry following the Intel news that came out after the day trading session...

Oh boy.... buying puts just after such a news is announced without further planning is like buying Silver right after the Buffet announcement! Except for a very few skillful day traders, practically nobody made money in Silver if establishing positions AFTER the Warren Buffet news made headlines. Try no to trade the news ok? What you hear and what you read is usually already in the market by the time you want to take action.

Open interest in Silver continues to decline and that seems to burden the current longs. However, it's not usual for Silver to correct for about 2 weeks and then to resume its uptrend. This market is no longer for the inexperienced though and extreme caution is needed because volatility can reach some very high levels at anytime!

The Comex warehouse inventories are still at critical low levels and it should be watched closely.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 11:49 - ID#420116)
fundaMETAList Y2K
Here is something else to consider when the Y2K computer glitches occur. Those who lose, will scream bloody murder. But to who? An automated telephone system?
Now, what about those who benefit from Y2K errors, such as new found funds on a bank statement. My bet is that those mistakes will be forgiven.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 11:52 - ID#342282)
Allan B re Claimstaker
If you're lurking, check your email shortly. It looks as if mine is ok. I'll try. If you get it, please email me back. Thanx

(Thu Mar 05 1998 11:57 - ID#340459)
@James. I am sorry if I hurt your feelings. My intention was to show how Hardworking and industrious
Japanese has been short changed of their wealth by financial maneouring. I remember in early 1980's when the Yen was 240 to 1 US. The West was crying that Japanese are screwing America by cheap exports and then how G-7 forced them at every turn to keep Yen conducive to US Industrial climate and forced them to keep rates below 1% on long bonds etc.

James, I never intended to denigrate Japanese but in fact trying to highlight that west is more shrewd than the east in matters 'Material"

(Thu Mar 05 1998 12:02 - ID#57232)
Your 11:39 -- last post for awhile -- I promise!
James: You are right -- we must all remember that Kitco is an international site. Even if it were not, I think we should voluntarily avoid posts that could be interpreted as insulting to any group.

What we sorely need right now is more Japanese posters -- we have not had one for months. It is our loss if we discourage international dialogue.

Fortunately, we have Jin to give us insight, but he is unable to penetrate the mysterious internal actions of Japan. I for one have not been able to reconcile the thriftness of the Japanese I have known with what I am reading about their government. I have a friend who just went to Japan -- I hope to talk to him in a few weeks when he returns.

My intuitive guess is that we underestimate the Japanese. One reason is that they only go after criminals when they have overwhelming evidence -- sort of like having the trial before the arrest. Hence, what we may be seeing in the news is after the fact, and that much more has been done behind the scenes than meets the eye. I have known Orientals for over thirty five years -- and we have much to learn from them.

Do you think a US president would be any more successful at controlling government bureaucracy than president Hashimoto of Japan? My hat is off to him for attacking the bureacratic medusa. Perhaps we will find out he is winning! And, perhaps we will learn how to do the same, and prevent a similar fate.

I have one last point to make. Do you think that the American people could pull together enough to keep a financial collapse from occuring for nearly 10 years? I find the Japaness economic system astounding, even if I would not wish to emulate it. There is alot to be said about the diversity and stregnth of the American economic system -- and I hope our complex governmental rules and regulations do not eventually destroy it.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 12:03 - ID#410194)
In my 11:48 post, it should have read:

It's not UNUSUAL for Silver to correct for 2 weeks and then to resume its uptrend.

Spud Master
(Thu Mar 05 1998 12:04 - ID#273112)
@Straddler & Midas re. credit cards and bankruptcies ...
I often wonder that it is precisely those who are living high off of borrowed money & credit cards who will have "made out" post-market/financial crash.

After all, they a ) have the goodies, b ) have been enjoying the goodies, and c ) will just declare themselves bankrupt & retain the goodies ( i.e. car, house, internal possessions ) .

Obviously MOST people around us will be in the same boat. So again, how will they suffer? We'll all be scramblimg from zero effectively.

Hmm ... could the efforts of Congress to reform the bankruptcy laws be foreshadowing a roadblock to this?

I would invite some comment as I am puzzled by what seems to be the "credit bingers" getting off easy post crash.


(Thu Mar 05 1998 12:07 - ID#330175)
EB .......and your 'doh comment'---------------I am NOT a ------------
'computer nerd'!!! ( got that,huh ) ---gotta run 'computer-guy' will be here in ten minutes~~~~~~~~~~bye.....and go ( up ) gold! ( pleeeeease )

(Thu Mar 05 1998 12:16 - ID#269191)
Higher lease rates mean lower gold prices.
I think the verdict is in. The higher lease rates mean more short selling and C.B. sales and lower prices. I think we will go below
the previous low of $278.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 12:19 - ID#225273)
Market Comments
To all:

Gold and the XAU are giving us a "gut check" this morning. So far both are down but the technical picture has not changed. Last night I wrote: "The XAU has not been able to close Friday's gap. Perhaps tomorrow it will make one more try early in the day: then we're off and running."

Well the XAU did try to fill that gap this morning and the gap got closed. The index has risen .32 points since the closure. I don't know if that qualifies as "off and running," but let's see how it closes.

Gold has so far remained above last week's low. I remain very bullish short-term. But as of now, gold has run out of excuses. It must move very soon or else.

The Preacher

(Thu Mar 05 1998 12:25 - ID#338289)
James: Atrocity?!
James: While I don't mean to step into your spat with Midas, I want to say I take great umbrage at your suggestion that the US committed an atrocity on Japan by dropping 2 nuclear bombs on them during WWII. I don't care what LeMay had to say. I would have supported dropping 10 of the damn things before the life of one more American was taken. Just to show you how ready to quit Japan was think about the fact that a second bomb had to be dropped 7 to 10 days later. They had plenty of time to see what happened in Hiroshima. I don't believe for one minute that the Japanese would have given up without a full scale invasion. Just look at Europe. The allies had to penetrate to the very heart of Germany. Jeez man.

You should study what Japan did in China during the 30's including the rape of Nanking ( spelling? ) before you start huffing and puffing about the US. If you're looking for US atrocities try looking at what the US did to the Indians but I don't buy the Japan thing.

Back to silver, gold, Y2K and work.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 12:31 - ID#338289)
iAtoIU: Bank Error In Your Favor
iAtoIU: Funny you should mention that. I can't recall the names but some large financial instituition, a brokerage I think, was doing some Y2K testing last year and it resulted in posting 19 million dollar credits to all of their customers accounts, over a trillion dollars in all. I bet that one was fixed right quick.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 12:35 - ID#348169)
Silver Traders
Silver Traders - If you look at Bart's 24 hour Silver Chart, there appears to be a nice little double bottom formed at about $6.23. Also if you're lucky enough to get the TradEZ banner at the top of the discussion page and you go to their site the featured commodity data this month ( under their guest button ) is Silver., and if I read it right they are stating that major suport ( according to their system ) is presently at $6.20. Seems like all things considered, now is a good spot to take a stab at a long Silver contract ( $6.25-6.30 ) There Mister EB - Is that a good enough start for you? :- )

(Thu Mar 05 1998 12:37 - ID#197313)
Preach it Preacher
got to agree with you on the gold call,but to be a contrarian
voice,I'd be nervous waiting around for this market to go
down,it has had plenty of knocks at this level and seems
to be firming,and how about that copper?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 12:41 - ID#254110)
Patience or Patients?
Hi all! Just lurking again. Many of kitocites have advised patience with the process and sav that these things go in cycles. However I remember that I used to deliver the Casper Morning Star on a cycle and I would hang my paper bags over the front handlebars. Once when I was speeding home with those bags empty they found their way between the spokes and the front forks. The cycles stopped. There was a crash followed by a big depression.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 12:45 - ID#280215)
Preacher, All
FWIW regarding some technical indicators as of now:

( April basis ) :

14 day and 20 day stochastics hooked down sharply yesterday, and the fast line is now below the slow line and heading south. The real bad part about this is that the stochastics have topped without going up much at all compared to the last price runup to about 310. It's not a divergence, but shows that the upward momentum here wasn't very strong. Even worse is that the WEEKLY stochastics look to have topped and are about to turn down also.

The daily MACD histogram shows that momentum tried to get above the zero line and failed and has now turned down. The bad sign here is at 310, the MACD histogram was way over the zero line in positive territory. This last rally a few days ago ( 302 ) didn't even carry to the zero line and has now truned down. Also the WEEKLY histogram shows the indicator heading south.

Other oscillator type indicators such as RSI are showing the same results of weakness. Daily Bollinger bands show that the recent rally tested the 20 day MA and failed and has headed down to the lower band. Also WEEKLY Bollinger bands show a test of the 20 Week MA and a failure that has also turned south.

Conclusion: Unless we get some major news of some sort to change the short term tone, we may get more here than just a test of the 289-290 area. Anyone still left holding April 290 puts who were going to let them expire anyway, I wouldn't jump off a bridge just yet!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 12:51 - ID#345176)
Gold stocks in recent days are "SKATA"

(Thu Mar 05 1998 12:54 - ID#246224)
Midas Re: Green-Amber-Red&Flashing w/Sirens
The interest rate of the 30 year 'long' bond is by ask/bid just like a commodity. As the markets settle on a particular interest rate which is acceptable in view of the entire economy, financial picture and government handling of affair it seems to me this interest rate expresses the willingness of 'big money' to invest in such an investment. If say 1 Bln US$ is put in at 6% and the rates go UP, then principle is lost on the resale of the 6% bond to compensate for the difference. The 6% bond is discounted in comparison to say a 7% rated bond. Conversely if the interest rate goes DOWN a 6% rated bond will APPRECIATE in principle since it is worth a bit more due top the higher rate of return compared to a 5% bond.

The international Bond markets are vastly larger than the equities markets simply because they are more liquid than stox; they carry comparitively less risk than NETSCAPE or even IBM. There is risk in variation of the interest rate ( dictated by the market ) , in the currency the bond is denominated in and the political component ( country of origin ) . If a country like the USA begins to faulter politically, if the currency becomes weak and if the interest rates rise because the market is less and less willing to commit money to such a bond then the former bond holders will also try to shift their money out of bonds. Just like a stock market sell off. This is indicated by a rise in long bond interst rates.

It seems to me that there are historical levels and ranges which indicate, like an automoble tempature gauge, the sentiment of the market about the country of issue and its markets: below 6% these days shows real strong confidence in such a country and its markets ( green band on engine thermometer. Between 6 and 7.5% there seems to be a change of sentiment from positive/optimistic to wait and see or neutral; this is a yellow or amber band on the thermometer - half way to red ( danger ) . From 7.5% to about 9% seems to me to be that the market is very concerned that things are becoming unstable and could become drasticly bad for risking money; this is the red band; danger. Finally interest rates in the long bond above about 9% show a complete lack of confidence in the country, its markets or future prospect; flashing lights and sirens - like an ambulance to the hospital!

The US 30 yr Long Bond rate has bottomed out and is rising. People who bought at the bottom are losing money they put into purchasing these bonds. 5.8% is extremely LOW. I really do not think this will last. And in fact it hasn't as we are above 6% and there is upward pressure. There is so much money in the Bond market that it would make the equities market look like a midget. As rates rise the equities market will start to look less attractive in comparison to the long bond rate. So this will distract large amounts of professionally managed money away from the stox. This happened in 1987 ( crash ) , 1990 and 1994 ( when the markets stalled out ) . Interest rates had risen prior to each of these events. They subsequently fell during the market booms in the following years ( 1988, 1991 and 1995 ) . Through present we have seen a sustained drop in long bond rates and so capital has not been distracted from flowing into equities.

When rate rise this will cap and possibly scuttle the stox. Interets rates lead the stock market not the other way around. If you want to know what the stock markets will do look at long bond interest rates and trends. Gold also tracks this closely.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 12:58 - ID#269409)
@ Reports re Market's death, greatly exxagerated
Hmmm, when I saw all the hyterical calls last evening for a full blown DOW crash today, I just KNEW that little or nothing would come of it....

Look at the DOW today vs. a week ago, 2 weeks ago, 3 weeks ago. Reports of it's death are greatly exagerated. Now if we talk about GOLD on the other hand......

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:00 - ID#340459)
I think that 'The Power's That be' know that they cannot allow DOW to fall too far and too fast as
would inculcate a global equities blood bath and would surely scuttle the carefully placed paper pyramid ponzi scheme, They will try to get a slow and steady 'correction' set in through Spring/Summer 98.

I think that lack of good news from Industrial sectors in 1998 and y2k scares in 98/99 will whittle away at the gushers of money going to equity mutuals.

Gold may yet rise but perhaps not at break neck velocity as envisioned by the wise of the forum. Gold requires shift in its perception of wealth/value by the common man. This is not a task that is easily achievable overnite in the light of recent decades of Gold's History in this century and returns on alternate Investment in the same period.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:01 - ID#22956)
Thumbs up on silver. Get some Sept. prepare the rocket ship for take-off.....for I must fly alone, alas, never having been invited to ride the smokemobile..... ( sad ) ...and the smoke-maker is *shoooshing* outside LA ( 2hours ) in about 8-15ft of packed, well-groomed, lightly dinged from LA proper ( smog ) , powder ....ohmy ( ! ) ..............................go copper. ( ! ) ( ! ) ( ! ) [{:-} )

99only25ofthetime... ( huh? ) 

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:16 - ID#252150)
Midas--You're right about them not being as shrewd, but look @ what has happened to all of SEasia. I think that more than shrewdness came into play here. I think that the U.S. with their attack dog Soros destroyed most of those currencies & economies & has been trying to destroy Japan as well.

Fundamentalist--I can understand your aversion to the U.S. landing in Japan. However, the fact remains that they dropped those bombs on strictly civilian targets with no military significance whatsoever. This is against the Geneva Convention as you are probably aware.

How come they did'nt drop 1 on Germany to shorten the war, but could rationalize dropping them on Japan? Racism pure & simple. Although the fire bombing of Dresden ranks pretty high on the scale of atrocities.
But I will agree--war is'nt pretty & the victor gets to write his

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:23 - ID#342282)
Straddler re your 12:45
That was a hell of an xray comment. Do you have any charts illustrating this? If so, and you can mail them, let me know and I'll give you my address. I don't know if I can give you what it's worth. Thanx

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:25 - ID#252150)
is the service I use. They use java for real time & historical charts with mvg avgs, obv etc. It's only good for Canadian stocks. For U.S. I use for delayed quotes & charts.

April AU not looking good & DM & JY look terrible, yet ABX doesn'nt want to go down. Has to be a lot of accumulation going on.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:33 - ID#253228)
Yes I do have a problem with authority when that authority is imposed up me in what amounts to slavery. I do not have a problem in following the requirements of a contract to which I have freely entered. Absent the institution of government men would volintarily form organizations for mutual protection to which they volintarily contribute and we would have private competing "government".
I believe I have a strong view of right and wrong. Acts of agression by one man upon another are wrong. Acting in persuit of my life and pleasure is right so long as I commit no act of agression against another.
This Constitution of which you speak is the document establishing the corporation which acts to plunder and enslave human beings, which is the history of each and every government that ever existed. I regard government ( as most think of it ) as not a necessary, but an unnecessary evil. I realize that my views are in a small minority, I realize that the power structure will not volintarily yield its monopoly and will continue its plunder until it is forced to do so, and I do believe that forces beyond the control of governments everywhere will make them and nations a thing of the past within the next 100 years. Too bad I am not a little younger so I can see if it really happens.
As to my preference of government "money" created and spent into existence, or "monopoly bank money loaned into existence", my opinion is that they are both immoral and I prefer that neither was an option. They both have the effect of transferring wealth out of the hands of people who created it into the hands of those using force to misappropriate it.I can see where someone who believed in the sancity of government would prefer to keep the plunder limited to the government and cut out the banking monopoly. I advocate free market soultions and I think that free men acting freely would choose a variety of moneys, most likely discarding some and keeping others and in the end, I think that precious metals and/or electronic money backed by precious metals would win out.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:34 - ID#197313)
Pearl Harbor is a very poular tourist atraction for
Japanese nationals?right or wrong droping the bombs served
the purpose and continue to serve as a mighty deterent.
Looks to me like the loser gets to write about the gulf war.
Speaking of nukes if SH acts up in a big way Isreal will
probably radiate the whole region and soviets while they are
at it.anyway over and out.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:36 - ID#57232)
Silver Rally?
EB: I'm in Silver because of what appears to be a major supply/consumption shortfall that has not been resolved. My physics analogy is that of sand falling out of a chamber, and the real price changes will not occur until the sand ( silver ) runs out, since silver production is inelastic.

You are a more short term person than I. What makes you think that Silver is about ready to take off again?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:36 - ID#348127)

We agree on one thing - that there are powers beyond what we are told that are in control. However, it is my hunch that the game plan is to make stocks and bonds look like the only viable tool and eventually only stocks. Thus the reason for supressing the GOLD price is basicly to make GOLD look like it is NOT an option. The longer they can keep this game up the more suckers they can round up on WALL STREET. Eventually the paper tiger will burn, but only when they say it's time, and it is not time yet. Great strategy, and it wants to work on me sometimes, but it wont. Then again I could be wrong??? 

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:37 - ID#33650)
@James TA
Many thanks indeed !

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:39 - ID#227290)
Straddler & TA

I agree that things look bleak; but I don't think it's time to throw the towel in just yet. The senior stocks are holding up better than the metal. Silver has now turned positive for the day. And gold is now trading in the top half of its daily range.

I want to see how things close; the picture might look better by then.

The Preacher

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:39 - ID#257148)
The Tasman Sea is getting wider, about 2 cm pa. NZ & Aus are moving apart, but not fast enough.
Have I got this right, these banks will lend 1.25* the "value" of a house?

Let me guess, and none of the valuers are crooks? Crsus, are these Banks modelled after Penn Square?

No need to apologise for the Aussie joke:- ) ) . There are millions of them in The Lucky Country.

Do you know how to make an Aussie laugh on Monday? Tell him a joke on Friday.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:40 - ID#33650)
@Prometheus /MSFT + house loan/crash
Thank you very much indeed for taking up my issue and thus giving it prominence and visibility. I will just know check out the posts you mentionend.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:42 - ID#33650)
@JFT and crash protection
thanks for your posts which I have just read. The picture and the risks are now much clearer to me

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:45 - ID#280215)
I apologize for not being able to post a link to charts. I have Lotus spreadsheets ( using very old LOTUS 2.0-DOS based ) that have all of these indicators ( Daily, Weekly, and Monthly ) progammed in with the corresponding graphs. However, I have to admit my ignorance in not knowing how to get these graphs as posts/links on the internet.

I do know that many here do have access to these charts and indicators and might be able to provide links to April Gold stochs, MACD etc.., a well as WEEKLY so you may judge these things for yourself. If this doesn't happen, I could mail/fax any of these without a problem.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:49 - ID#333232)
anecdotes & info
Interesting note:
While conversing with a recruiter today the topic of the deflationary environment for PC's came up. His comment - "Yeah, they're really only worth the gold in them"...

For James:

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:51 - ID#280215)
Agree. Gotta wait to see follow through to confirm any indicator. Once you get the follow through, then the picture becomes clearer. This market as well as any market has shown that the technical indicators can only allow you to put odds on a particular direction. but can't guarantee anything. That's the exact reason why I learned mucho years ago to play a straddle even if it looks obvious it's going in a particular direction.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:52 - ID#238295)
the action
Preacher: Agree absolutely with your prognosis. The fact that gold stocks have held up so well in the face of a $6 drop in bullion the past three days is quite bullish. Now with silver up for the day and bullion considerably above the lows, good chance of a decent rally tomorrow. Too early to say if will be just another bounce or the beginning of the next GOLD BULL.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:54 - ID#57232)
Glad I could be of some help
Hamlet: I think you need 'third or fourth order' logic to invest in gold these days - nothing is quite what it seems in the gold market. As someone on this site once said -- gold is a 'political' metal. Alot if reputations are riding on the price of gold ( in US dollars ) staying down.

But -- as we all know -- no one can hold back natural market forces forever. And as Gary North ( I think ) once said, some the best investment decisions one can make are made based on the economic distortions generated by public figures ( powers that be ) . George Soros also said the same thing in one of his books. The trick is to decipher the mystery, and wait.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:55 - ID#153102)
The Constitution did not grant a monopoly power to coin money to the federal. They took it "by necessary implication." There were private mints operating in the USA into the twentieth century.

The trust compact of the States made in the Constitution had a purpose of contract enforcement with the King of which only the insiders were aware at the time of ratification.

"Only the land was ceded to the states, that which was above ground, no mineral rights were ceded to the states. Why? The king could not cede the gold, silver or copper to the states when it was placed in an un
revocable Trust, given to the heirs of the king, that continue to
be born even today. Since the states were only granted what was
above ground, how could anyone after the 1783 Treaty, claim to
have allodial title to any property, to have allodial title you
must own everything above and below, own it completely, no liens.
If there is no allodial property, there are no freeman, the two
are synonymous. The Jay Treaty began the process of the king
regaining his land above, the Bank of the United States finished
the process, with the purchase of much of the Congressman and the
office of the President and the judiciary. Is the money still
transferred to Britain, you bet. How? The 1040 tax form is the
transference, and is a result of a treaty with Britain."

Chief Justice John Marshal was a major shareholder in the Bank of the United States and wrote the opinion in its favor in McCulloch v Maryland.

I know it is difficult to believe that the whole myth of the Constitution is a sham and old treaties still have effect, but the evidence says they do.

The people on this continent who fought for Independence had your conception of government, Jeil, and they were sold out in the Constitutional convention.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 13:58 - ID#33650)
@Donald_A@Prometheus /Hedge
Thanks for the post which is inded very risk averse. I understood buying Gold Bullion ( which is hard to do in big amounts if one wants to avoid any papertrail which inevitably will lead to confiscation ) and I understand the reason behind T-Bills. However, I was especially astonished that you didn't promote gold stocks. Are you out?
thanks a lot

(Thu Mar 05 1998 14:11 - ID#410194)
The important report
Bonds have made fresh new lows a few minutes ago and it looks like some big traders prefer to be more short than long ahead of tomorrow's so called important "payroll numbers" report released at 8:30 am.

This report has already shakened the bonds and stock market quite a lot a few times in the past.

Expectations are at around 250,000 but we sart to hear 300,000 a we approach the release. Both bonds and stock markets could rise if it comes in at 250,000.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 14:16 - ID#410194)
The 2nd year of the same...
One trading day left to the week...

Date: Sat Feb 28 1998 08:16
OLD GOLD ( outlook ) ID#238295:
Still looks like the gold bear is dying and $300 will be decisively breached next week. I expect bullion to approach $320 within the next few weeks, before falling back to $305 or so. From now on it will be higher highs and higher lows -- in other words a bull market.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 14:18 - ID#33650)
@Mapleman / informed plot/Trilaterals etc
I read some document ( the Illuminati Protocols ) on the Neotech page which reveiled ( ? ) that the past and present worldwide crisis are well planned since many decades I recall that in the final stage it calls for destroying the financial markets while secretly having accumulated all physical gold and the gold in the mines. Now this scenario of depressed gold prices, CB gold sales stagflation/depression in Asia, Dow bubble, soaring public debt looks to me a bit more than a coincidence. The source says that CB's are run by the Illuminati and their ultimate goal is to destroy all the stupid Governments by financial and other disasters, wars rebellion etc to implement an intelligent autocratic system. Neotech claims that this is in the best interest of mankind. ( ??? )
Any thoughts?? I could find out and post the url next week if desired


(Thu Mar 05 1998 14:18 - ID#334219)
Midason Gold perception
"Gold requires shift in its perception of wealth/value by the common man"
This always happens AFTER the new bull has started.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 14:19 - ID#227290)
Old Gold
Thanks, friend. You know, the dollar index is showing the same action as gold "in reverse." Early last week it peaked at 100.60 and then turned sharply downward. It couldn't break its 100-day MA and has now rebounded to a high of 100.55, just five ticks away from last week's high.
Until it takes out that high, though, I'm bearish on the dollar index.
But it does give some anxious moments to those watching.

The Preacher

(Thu Mar 05 1998 14:30 - ID#257148)
Throwing a Golden Apple of Dischord and Chaos

Oh! Cool!

The Ancient Order of Bavarian Illuminati, coming to a conspiracy theory near you. Adam Weishaupt, your ghost lives!

Hail Eris!


(Thu Mar 05 1998 14:30 - ID#335190)
FYI @ Gold Customers/Consumerism = We need a custom/habit, a citizens' belief in Gold=Value-eh!
"NOT TO WORRY" prattle the economists. "Heavens aren't really falling. There's just a bit of restructuring going on"

"NOT TO WORRY" jabber the politicians "We'll just shrink government and everything will brighten up in no time"

"NOT TO WORRY" intone the entrepreneurs. "This may seem like Hell, but it's really Heaven. It's a brand-new kind of Heaven, and a heck of a lot more efficient than the old one"

CONSUMERISM... ( 1944 ) Promotion-Buying Goods - consumer/purchaser/shopper/patronizes

CUSTOMER... ( 15c ) - "derived from the Greek word meaning HABIT or CUSTOM.

SUITS: "If economists were doctors, they would today be mired in malpractice suits"

FYI.....Take Care

(Thu Mar 05 1998 14:30 - ID#238295)
James; All sides committed brutal atrocities during World War 2. Germans and Japanese were worst, but allies also joined in with enthusiasm. The prime example of allied atocities was the deliberate targeting of civilians for slaughter via saturation and fire bombing. But the reason the atomic bonb was used only against Japan was the Germany surrendered before the weapon was first tested in July 1945.

Today, the toll of Iraq civilian dead because of the sanctions and contamination from US radiation weapons used during the Gulf War continues to mount. Just as in World War 2, the US is deliberately targeting civilians for slaughter. Those who cannot understand why our nation is so hated by the Middle East masses should read the following:



MER - Washington - 4 March:
All the talk about supposed Iraqi weapons masks a reality
few officials in the U.S. wish to discuss -- the spreading cancer
plague brought on by the use of tens of thousands of "depleted
uranium" weapons by the U.S.
With huge amounts of such uranium stockpiled from the
days of the cold war, the American military used this dangerous
metal to build tank-busting artillery shells oblivious to its
long-term consequences.
Now there is an epidemic of cancer in Iraq caused by these
weapons -- an epidemic now spreading across destroyed Iraq which
is likely to grow worse and worse for years to come. And with
the Iraqi health system itself destroyed, and U.S. sanctions
further crippling the country, large and still-growing numbers
of people are suffering terribly.
In a just world the Americans would be held accountable,
tremendous compensation would be paid the Iraqis, and as
former U.S. Attorney General Ramsey Clark has said "war
crimes" indictments would be issued. A good case can certainly
be made that there is either criminal intent or culpable negligence
involved with these "depleted uranium" weapons.
But this is not a just world and not only are the Americans
getting away with their crimes but they are still plotting more
destruction for Iraq and more use of these same weapons whose
effects are every bit as terrible as the "possible" chemical
and biological weapons the Americans claim Iraq possesses -- but
has not used.
In short, if anyone has been using weapons of mass destruction
causing tremendous harm to the civilian population, the United
States is right at the top of the list.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 14:31 - ID#269191)
Shorts are in control.
New lows are on the way. The rise in lease rates at the short end
is indicative of substantial short selling. The failure of gold to
make any progress in the wake of substantial short covering in previous
weeks was extremely bearish.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 14:32 - ID#285392)
APH thanks for the advice.
I bought two oex calls this morning at close to the low at that time. I still hold a May $6.75 call on silver. It's down about 1/3at this time. Your guidance in appreciated.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 14:33 - ID#246224)
You are always managing to tweek the nose of some goldbug somewhere aren't you???

jim c
(Thu Mar 05 1998 14:37 - ID#69280)
DEJ (12:16 remark)
I thought higher lease rates meant less supply and greater demand therefore higher prices.

Could someone enlighten us please?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 14:41 - ID#20748)
Old Gold- You can open that bag of potato chips now
Because you won the beer. Yesterday's action in XAU was convincing but, like Preacher, I too was aware of the need for it to fill the gap. Now that that's behind us the index should head for 79.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 14:41 - ID#246224)
Old Gold @ Cancer from "depleted Uranium bombs"
Hardly believable since radiation induced cancers take at least 20 years to develop. Uranium metal has been used on armor piercing shells since before Vietnam. This is a propaganda pc by Iraqi intelligence. It sells to those who know nothing about radition or cancer ( most of us ) .

(Thu Mar 05 1998 14:49 - ID#342282)
Hamlet re your offer URL
Lay it on us. Could add some perspective. Thanx

(Thu Mar 05 1998 14:50 - ID#238295)
gold bull
Realistic: Yes I was premature in calling for a gold breakout over $300. Anticipation is dangerous in this market. I will not again call a gold bull until we breach the 100 day MA and $300 with conviction and hold well above those levels on reactions. I am now a disciple of Bill Buckler's conservative approach. BTW, what would it take to turn you bullish?

Allen The shells uses against Iraq had many times the uranium of Vietnam era munitions.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 14:53 - ID#33650)
@auratorius illuminatus
you seem to know a lot about this although your post reads that mine wasmore of that same old nonsense ( ? ) who the heck is Eris???
Oh illuminatus auratorius, please enlighten us !

hamlet ( sitting in the dark and shivering, but now going home to wife and kids and sit at the fireplace of the house that is poised to be a pre crash emergency sale . Oh, how I love this world if I'm able ( sometimes ) to take it not too serious !

PS Kitcoite jokes are great fun in the english class of German schools these days. However, I did not disseminate all BC jokes. And the last one on New Zealand's creation needs some translation ( Germany vs UK and soccer ? )
Go joke, go goal ah gold !!!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 14:54 - ID#338289)
James: Time to bone up on your history...
James: You really need to bone up on your history.

If I recall correctly from my reading Hiroshima was picked for 2 reasons. 1 ) They were a BIG war industry city and 2 ) The mountains that ring the city would ensure maximum destruction. The thought was hopefully this will convince the Japanese to surrender so we don't have to do it again. It didn't.

The war in Europe was over in May '45. Look at the history of the development of the atom bomb. It did not come "online" until after the German surrender. Had the bomb been ready earlier I have no doubt that the Allies would have used it on Germany.

And when you talk of Dresden I think you're talking of a British affair.

Nice chatting with you but please know your history when you are going to post something like "How come they did'nt drop 1 on Germany to shorten the war, but could rationalize dropping them on Japan? Racism pure & simple. "

Lunch is getting cold. Gotta go...

(Thu Mar 05 1998 14:59 - ID#341189)
On the lease rate controversy
Isn't the bottom line that higher lease rates make it more expensive to maintain short physical poitions, hence making the shorts more uncomfortable in a flat or rising market?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:00 - ID#238295)
lease rates
Rising lease rates can be either bullish or bearish. If the cause is aggressive short selling that is bearish ( well bearish short-term anyway ) But if the cause is less CB gold available for lease that is bullish.

Mooney: Speculation about further selling by European CBs undoubtedly a factor behind the latest gold drop. But the strong dollar and renewed weakness in Asia also important.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:00 - ID#390249)
lease rates
DEJ - I believe your are right. I noticed that lease rates were at these levels last Sept and Oct and market went down substantially from there. There is a tremendous amount of short selling going on and I think it's due to Portugal's CB comment that the EMU should hold 2% gold as reserves. I'm almost ready to short myself. Asia and the dollar don't help. The dollar should get even stronger April 1st when the Japanese start investing in our stock market. How could they go wrong? The US market is backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government.

Does anyone know the gold holdings of the european CB's? I know this has been posted before but I can't find it. I'd especially like to know what Portugal's holdings supposedly are.

Bill Buckler
(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:02 - ID#256381)
Gold and 20 week (100 Day MA)
Old Gold: Yep, looks like the 20 week MA is holding again on the weekly bar chart with Kitco now having Gold down to just above $293.

If this is a "conservative" approach, I can only point out that it works. Those who trade the derivatives Gold markets ( notably futures ) will no doubt have their own methods, and if they have been doing it for a while, they will also have expunged emotion from their trading and be very disciplined.

If they aren't, they will fit the description of the futures trader who had a million in the market. Only problem is he started with 2 million.

The $US Gold P&F chart ( $1x3 ) is worth watching too. Any upturn this side of $290 will be interesting but, on any measure, One cannot be comfortable on the long side until Gold breaks above $300 and STAYS there.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:04 - ID#298259)
Canarc Resource Corp. acquires new property

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:04 - ID#342282)
Straddler re mail charts
Thanx a bunch for mailing. Address is, Charlie Devoto, 2422 warrior Fork Trail, Morganton, N.C. 28655. If you could give specs on charting software, I'll get it and keep up. I am in the middle of reducing a lot of old experience and some newer concepts to manageable proportions. It's not easy, but i hope it'll be productive. Will let you know if I don't bomb. I like your idea of straddling a price. Again many thanx

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:08 - ID#238295)
contrary indicator
If sentiment on this thread is indeed a contrary indicator, gold should stage a decent rally very soon. Notice I said a rally, not a new bull market. As Captain Bill says, gold must go above $300 and stay there for the basic trend to change.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:09 - ID#57232)
auratorious illuminatorious?
hamlet: I think you could hold your own with aurator! Is there a shakespearian connection? I think I will have fun watching the dialogue between you and aurator! Right, aurator?

Seriously, I don't think there is any organized conspiracy manipulating our 'fiat' currencies -- or the price of gold. I think it is a number of events that just happened to come together -- where a number of powerful interest groups all want gold to go in the same direction.

1 ) The Europeans want the dollar strong ( cheap gold ) for the pre-euro launch.

2 ) European cb's -- other than France and Germany -- want to sell gold because they will have no control over gold sales for the EURO when it comes on line -- only France and Germany

2' ) Other CB's have sold gold, because it has 'no investment value', or have loaned it to make money in dollars.

3 ) SEAsian countries are selling gold due to their financial crises.

4 ) Gold bear speculators have piled in to take advantage of the CB gold sales/gold loans.

Then there are the actions of the gold producers -- which I don't profess to understand.

And -- after all of that, the gold bear does seem to be unraveling, and bottoming.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:11 - ID#335190)
History @ Drugs etc.
This is a review/summary of a book that is unavailable in English.
Der Fall Charles Manson, Moerder aus der Retorte
( Test-Tube Murders, the Case of Charles Manson )
by Carol Greene
Dr. Boettiger Verlags-GmbH,
Wiesbaden-Nordenstadt, Germany, 1993 236 pages,
paperbound, DM16.80

- Indictment of the New Age Nazis -

But it was not Carol Greene's intention to write an expose. She has written a bill of indictment. The establishment scientists and social engineers of MK-Ultra a.k.a. the Aquarian Conspiracy a.k.a. the counterculture, stand accused of using sex, drugs, and synthetic belief systems to unleash Charles Manson and his ``family'' as irrational, sadistic and unrepentant killers. Prosecutor Greene has established opportunity and intent, but that leaves unresolved the question of motive. It is that question she addresses in the final and most jarring chapter.

It is Greene's contention that the actions of one or more key individuals were believed to trigger that 5% of the population that the rat scientists had found capable of murderous psychopathology. Thus the actions of Manson have unleashed a wave of ``copy-cat'' serial killings and related behavior in the subsequent years, among a population that has received the same kind of preparation that Manson had, i.e., sex, drugs, and the New Age.

During this time the FBI has assembled a massive databank of all those individuals who have perpetrated or shown a propensity for sociopathic violence. Greene describes this as a ``Who's Who'' of the potential fascist scene in America. She believes that if the establishment continues to insist on its present economic course, they may find it necessary to deploy some form of fascism, without the ``democratic face.'' She says in closing:

``This book was written because we believe that in the United States, as in Germany during the Third Reich, the majority of the population is against such a development. This majority must now wake up and act. What came to pass under the Nazi regime was believed by most of those who helped bring them to power, in a desperate economic and social situation, to be simply not possible. And yet it was possible, and it is today again possible.''

The title quote was from Timothy Leary

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:12 - ID#153102)
@hamlet @thoughts @conspiracy @domestic terrorism
My thought is that autocratic government is in the interest of the autocrat and his entourage and not in the interest of those outside the castle, that is to say, mankind.

Ideas have a life all their own which continues from age to age so long as the idea attracts individuals. All conspirators share some common idea as a goal or purpose. So, the appearance of a conspiracy would naturally occur associated with certain ideas.

People are being put in cages in the United States for conpiracy. Actually, as the prosecutors are applying Acts of Congress, the modern federal conspiracy charge is much akin to the charges prosecuted for sedition after publication of the Jay Treaty and the facts of the bribery of the Senate by Ben Franklin's grandson. The evidence is in speaking, not doing.

The Acts of Congress on "domestic terrorism" make for interesting reading. Ten ten man teams of swat type people are being organized and trained for deployment in each of the ten martial regions of the United States. They will temporarily be assigned to the National Guards as "requested" by governors. You might be surprised who fits the category of "domestic terrorist".

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:13 - ID#210235)
Did the wise guy ( nyuk nyuk nyuk ) within every wise man sneak out and cook you a big crow dinner? Yummmmmmmm . . . it's the lingering ache in the gut that makes such feasts so memorable. Got my clown nose in my pocket here, slipped it on ( honk ) in your honor. If you ( honk ) look around ( honk honk ) you'll notice we're all bozos on this bus ( honk ) . WELCOME BACK.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:14 - ID#252127)
I think that Switzerland is playing the bluff

With the faith of the Euro uncertain, during which its transition, existing european currencies will still circulate and with honest concern of a mass exodus of paper entering their country; the Swiss are purposely downplaying their currency.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:16 - ID#330175) computer has been 'down and out'(could be a blues
Since last weekend.....But G'Day mate!!!---'I ain't never comin back'............Stones--Tattoo You alblum----'I'm just standing in some doorway' with the DOW down 111~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:19 - ID#338289)
James: One last thing...
James: Just so I don't sound like someone who would defend every last action of the US in WWII, I'm aware that one or more Japanese cities were targeted for firebombing. These actions did nothing to hasten the end of the war and never should have been authorized.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:23 - ID#341189)
Intel inside
I hate to point this out to the dipsters among us, but if Intel should drop 10 points from here, it will have completed a massive top going back to Jan. 1997. ( about the size of todays drop. )

Spud Master
(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:30 - ID#273112)
@OLD GOLD ... wake up old boy
First, depleted uranium ( 238 ) has a half-life of about five billion years - so it's radiation hazard is practically irrelevant. There is far greater danger from the Potassium 40 and and Carbon 14 in your body than the faint radiation source of U238. What a joke.

Second, U238 is about as toxic as lead. BFD. There's more danger to a person's health from the bleeding 50% mercury amalgam dental fillings their mouth is full of than U238.

Third, depleted uranium is alloyed with 3/4 of a percent titanium to enhance machinability and reduce suseptibility to corrosion in the environment.

Fourth, most of the depleted uranium used in the war was from Abrams main tank gun rounds or A-10 gattling gun ammo - both of which were used WELL AWAY from Iraqi population centers, down around Kuwati border and southern Iraqi deserts. So, the metal and it's oxides are splattered on burned out tanks, trucks rusting out in the middle of nowhere desert. So HOW THE HELL does the depleted uranium get into the Iraqi food chain, eh? Are the Iraqis running around licking burned-out T-72 tanks?

Man, get informed before repeating prole-feed drivel.

As for US use of the atomic bomb ... Hiroshima is not surrounded by mountians - Nagasaki is though. We should not have used the bomb on those cities. Demo shots on Tokyo harbor and Mount Fuji would have made the point. Hell, just encircling Japan with a blockade and starving them would have done the job soon enough. Plenty of ways to "beat" an opponent without incinerating innocents.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:31 - ID#252127)
I think that Switzerland is playing the bluff

With the faith of the Euro uncertain, during which
its transition, existing european currencies will
still circulate and with honest concern of a mass
exodus of paper entering their country; the Swiss
are purposely downplaying their currency.

And a little help from alFonze d'amato and the media legions is welcome.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:34 - ID#333232)
Islamic Mint
Just received a reply.. BBL

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:35 - ID#356379)
D.A. > Your silver groupies are in need of some guidance.

With continued low COMEX silver stocks, why have we seen an erosion in the price of silver? The market acts like the completion of the Buffett deliveries this week is the only game in town. What is going on relative to deliveries against the March contract nearing expiration? Anyone besides Buffett taking delivery? Can the shorts meet their delivery obligations? Is the COMEX shortage real or contrived? Thanks in advance for your insight. Back to the still...

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:39 - ID#238295)
Spud master: Glad you are opposed to killing innocents.

Stock market selloff has resumed this last hour after a modest bounce off the morning lows. OLD MAN and APH thesis that this is another great buying opportunity does make sense except for the fact that this is the conventional wisdom on the street. Another thing that troubles me is the near total absence of any real fear in the marketplace. If this is just another correction ( and that does appear to be the case ) it could be considerable deeper than most assume.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:42 - ID#246224)
Look at the gold chart for the past 25 years ..
and tell me the last time gold sat at a bottom like this and simply stagnated for 3 months. We already have a first leg up settling in at about 7 to 9% having pulled back from 303. There is significant buying happening at 290 or there abouts. The range is tight +/-2%.

If we go down it will not be for long. If we go up it will be contagious. Let's enjoy the rest. Most of us have our bets in anyway, right? Even Ted is chiming in a bit with the *go gold* post-script once and again.

May I suggest that we look at the Asian banking situation more closely? There are some very screwy things going on in the run up to the Japanese "big bang". What after that??? More reports of people pulling their money out of banks, etc.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:44 - ID#210235)
Your last post deserves a little round of applause. Why look for a conspiracy when there is no need for one? With so much that is known, a conspiracy is really superfluous at this point. Unfortunately, your very logical analysis doesn't meet a basic human need to find the god in the machine to blame for the workings outside ourselves. This runs really deep, and isn't going to go away. Where's a Jungian analyst when we need one?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:46 - ID#333232)
Islamic Dinar
In a nutshell:

Available in UAE, SA and EU.
Production center in SA.
Possibly available in US in a month.

( I have reservations about posting a private email )

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:46 - ID#338289)
Spud Master: Bomb
Spud Master: Thanks for straightening me out on the mountain thing. I'm doing this from memory of books read long ago.

I gotta disagree with your comments about where the bomb was used. If dropping a bomb on a major city like Hiroshima did not get their attention ( remember, we had to do it twice ) how would bombing a harbor or mountain top convince them of anything. And isolating them might not have worked for years. Remember: Our boys were dying every day from the suicide bombers crashing into our ships.

Your comments on the U238 were great. I may have missed it in reading over your post quickly but do they use the uranium due to it's hardness and it's ability to cut through tank armor?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 15:49 - ID#269245)
Debt & who needs gold anyway?
Private debt, federal debt, trade debt, state & territory debt, gold debt, UN debt, holy debt! Did I miss any debt? Who's going to finance the IMF when the US goes down? It is too bad that the value of gold is "mystical." My understanding of "Another and freinds" is that the West is trading gold ( paper and physical ) in exchange for oil. This makes a lot of sense. My thought of Asia and the ME is that they like gold, whereas the West likes oil. One problem though - oil is consumed, gold is not. That leaves the East with Gold and the West with ... polution? hmmmm... The only advantage that I see for the West is that the oil drives an economic machine which manufactures goods, grows crops, explores space, and has some wonderful new DNA technology. So maybe this predicament is not so bad for the West after all! So, Iguess everything is fine, isn't it?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:03 - ID#246224)
Just War Theory/Ethics
The decisions to destroy civilians are wrong ( period ) . Unfortunately western traditions such as just war theory ( which seperate combatants from civilians ) are not shared universally. The further east one travels the further the departure from these principles. Human "sheilds" or hostages, putting troups and equipment in civilian districts for cover, civilian dress for undercover fighters, etc. There have always been 'actrocities' committed by Eastern AND Western armies in the asian theaters because of this lack of agreement in cultures.

This does not justify barbarism, in either culture, but the definition may vary depending who you talk to and when. Whereas Westerners have a tradition defined by some absolute standards, by and large Easterners are not so constrained because of the relativism endemic in those cultures. There is also a differnce in the sense of what is just and the worth of the individual and his/her life.

I do find it interesting that often people in the west who hold a fairly relativistic perspective about things that do not offend their conscience get very absolutist when it comes to things that do. This is inconsistant. A true relativist would shrug and say 'what a pity' or something to that end.

Remember, I'm a civilian so no fire storms, OK? Thanks!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:04 - ID#252127)
Check out Gold Reserve

When in doubt, why Crystallex?
Gold Reserve is Can $4.30 down from about Can $15.10 high this year.
Big low grade gold, copper property next to Las Cristinas ( sp )

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:12 - ID#246224)
Did they give any information on gold content/% and pricing??? FWTW the 6 Bln ID capitalization of the capital corporation would be somewhere between 100 and 250 Bln US$; ( ( 4.3 gr * ( 6*10^9 ) ) /31.103 ) *300=US$248 Bln if this was gold content of a larger coin. If 4.3 gr 10K coin is 42% gold then 100 Bln.

Spud Master
(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:13 - ID#273112)
US FedGov uses depleted uranium because:

1 ) we have ton of the crap from our a-bomb/h-bomb programs,

2 ) it's extremely dense ( for kinetic purposes ) ,

3 ) it acts pyrophoricaly in use ( the spray of uranium produced
as it hits a tank & punches a hole ignites into a million points
of death that shreds, incinerates and obliterates the sons and fathers
on the inside of the tank/truck ) . As always, war is a lot of fun until you have to be the one doing the dying.

We must disagree on the use of the A-bomb on Japan. Blockade would have reduced Japan to misery and starvation. It would take time. We would not have had to put our ships at risk to kamikazi because US Air Corps had done a fine job of trashing Japanese industrial capabilty, and because the blockade fleet would be well off shore & not a sitting target.

Demo shots around Tokyo would have taken the message straight into the minds of the Japanese military & bureacracy, instead of taking days to hear reports from devastation of Hiroshima ( which by the way, was the one city of predominant Christianity in Japan ) & Nagsaki. Don't you think Tojo & crew would have dumped in their pants to see a fireball & mushroom cloud towering over Tokyo from the harbor? Why is it we must always kill innocents. Why is it that the politicians and their bureacracies that cause the wars are spared?

Another example is our moronic retaking of several Japanese held Pacific islands: once the Japanese lost their local air cover, and their Pacific fleet was destroyed - who gave a hoot in hell that the Japs still held these miserable little specks of islands. Ignore them. They'll starve to death soon enough. And yet our military brass, safe & snug from harm, sent our troops into these meat grinders. If we didn't need them for air bases, just damn ignore them.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:21 - ID#36977)
mozel @ DOD Y2K Chief resignation
You stated in your March 2 @ 23:26 that you wanted to see what developed regarding this situation. From what I've seen, nothing. I did a net search and found only the hiring of a Real Estate Sales Lady ( eminently qualified ) as the head for DOD Y2K corrections. That was in Spring of 1997, I think. She just gave some kind of conference, so I don't think she was the one that resigned. I'm stumped. Ready to tell?

With the exception of defense systems, the FAA flight computers and a few other critical systems, maybe it will be good if many 'gummit' computer systems crash -- less is more, right? I did find it typical 'bureaucrateze' that one way DOD is lessening the problem is 'reclassifying' systems previously listed as 'mission critical' to the less significant category.

Also, I found it interesting that the GAO required system inventories to be performed in Feb, with March reporting requirements, and that the TARGET date for completion of Y2K testing is Sept 1999. ( I think 1999 ) Anyway, it sure didn't leave a lot of room for error. I think that only 3 months was allowed in the schedule for testing systems.

I also found a strongly worded policy letter from the NY Fed instructing bank auditors to look at Y2K issues, that many banks were not as far along as would be desired.

Nuff said. Over to you.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:22 - ID#57232)
Dollar up nearly 1%
Ok financial gurus! What is happening! Is this what we expect to happen if the US markets are tanking? Who is buying? Crisis in Europe? The Swiss Frank dropped and so did the Deutsche Mark. Are we worried about the wrong markets?

I don't have a clue what is happening.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:22 - ID#20137)
Umar Vaddillo has kindly responded to my e-mail
Thank you for your interest on the Islamic Dinar

The 1992 edition of the Islamic Dinar was a very limited one
of about 100 dinars and 1000 dirhams. They were minted in
Granada ( Spain ) by the authority of the Amir of the Islamic
Community in Spain.

They were totally sold. They can only be found now in private
collections. That dinar weighted 5 grammes. And the dinar weighted
5 grammes as well. Properly speaking they are not dinar and dirhams.
The Islamic Dinar is a weight determined by the Islamic Law of 4.3 grammes
of gold and the Islamic Dirham is a weight also determined by the Law of
3.0 grammes of silver. Following the tradition we are using similar types
of alloy that is 22 carats for the dinar and Sterling silver for the
This standards have been agreed upon by the World Islamic Trading
Organisation and have been now adopted for all the new dinars and dirhams
minted by the ISLAMIC MINT.

The reference you mentioned is correct. The Islamic Mint was founded by
the initiative of the MURABITUN. Our organisation in Europe is the largest
community of indigenous European Muslims.

Do not hesitate to contact me for more information.

Umar Vadillo
Director of the Islamic Mint.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:23 - ID#269409)
Weighing in...WMD's
Spud master, we rarely agree but I definitely appreciated your post on the laughable article claiming Iraqui cancer epidemic from depleted Uranium shells. If you didn't post the refutation, I would have felt compelled to.I may even agree on your point re how we might have used the A bomb on military targets...however, not being a VET or from that era, I think that debate is best left to those who are.

Old Gold, shame on you! You ought to know better!

Japan, Germany, U.S., Russia, China, Iraq.....Lost in all this immoral policy re use of weapons talk, is the underlying reason why most of these wars occurred.

Namely, blatant, unprovoked, violent, attack against peaceful world neighbors, with the intent of stealing their resources and enslaving their land through maniacal agression. I must agree with whomever commented earlier, if you want to lay something at the U.S. doorstep, it'd have to be the treatment of Native Americans, not the involvement in major world skirmishes since.

Anyone comparing the mudering, whack job dictator Saddam's philosophy on weapons, to U.S. policy, obviously has a few screws loose.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:24 - ID#20137)
Looking forward to Dinar
Date: Thu Mar 05 1998 15:46
cmh ( Islamic Dinar ) ID#333232:

Can you tell us where they will be available in the U.S.?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:36 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.79

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:36 - ID#57232)
How about a moratorium on WMD and Uranium?
How about it, fellow Kitcoites? Lets figure out why the US dollar went up nearly 1% today instead.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:38 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .249

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:40 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 46.20

Lurker 777
(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:41 - ID#317247)
How low can we go!
Only $6 more to go then I will be buying more Phillies for under $300. each. Yeeeeees! Austrian Philharmonic 999.9% pure gold coin with a 2000 Shilling face value ( $160 ) are the BEST BULLION COIN in the world bar none. I have already bought my DEC. 99 280 puts ( $600 ea. ) for a downside risk of less than 6% until NOVEMBER 1999. Found a dealer who will buy Philharmonics at 3% and sell at 4.25% over spot.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:42 - ID#333232)
No details, but...
"...we have no distribution yet in the United States or Canada. Yesterday night I got in touch with our Production Department in South Africa. I expressed the necessity to create a distribution center in the US. ... The coins will be available to all of you within a month..."

Further more detailed enquiries are pending - I'll let you know as soon as I do. cmh

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:43 - ID#338289)
Spud Master: Bomb
Spud Master: Thanks for the all too graphic explanation of why the uranium is used.

I guess we will just have to disagree on that point about where the bomb was used. I do know that the reason it was used was to end the war. I also know they only had two bombs to work with ( I think they were months away from producing bomb #3 due to a shortage of fissionable material ) , didn't know if one or the both of them would work and had to use what they had to maximum effect. When working within these parameters you don't shoot off such weapons for their pyrotechnics effect.

As for the blockade, after all the years of killing no one would think of standing down without the job done. Remember, Japan is a pretty big place and and they can grow a lot of food. Besides, there was still fighting going on in China and the Phillipines, wasn't there? No, I don't think anyone would have entertained that idea.

Thanks for the exchanges. I learned a few things today. Which is why I love Kitco.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:44 - ID#22956)
wishful thinking...nothing more. This is why I have September. That seems pretty long term to me ( ?!? ) , no? w/w and hold idle the rocket ship.... ( t-minus ( ? ) ) ... ( and counting ) ........ ( and counting ) ...... ( tick-tock ) ....... ( silver must run up the clock ) ...uh huh.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:44 - ID#341189)
The big loser appears to be the Britich pound today after running up recently.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:44 - ID#252150)
IT would'nt surprise me if Israel usues nukes. I posted here months ago that Netanhyu hinted that they would not allow Iran to develop a nucleur capability.

CMH--I have no doubt that Japan committed their share of atrocities. Most people on this planet under the right or wrong circumstances, depending on how you look @ it are capable of comitting atrocities they they could'nt even imagine.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:47 - ID#269409)
@ Allen...tweaking the Nose of GoldBugs
Ahh ahh ahh Allen, remember, LGB is the GoldBug's FRIEND! Yes it may seem that I make Gold bull nose tweaking remarks, but this is simply my perverse way of trying to be a "Realist", so that I can view this Gold market from every angle, in the hopes my quasi long term bullishness is not in vain.

Unlike the long term, hard core, faithful to Gold, I am emotionally a GoldBug, but intellectually a skeptic. Gold's failure to follow through every time it hits $300, and it's current lackluster performance in spite of rising lease rates, no new CB sale anouncements, tightening supplies, and mine closures, disturbs me. Add to this the dearth of inflation, and the strength of the U.S. economy......and an Equities market that can shake off even the Intel news...and the Portugal CB announcement, and a recent lessening of interest in Gold ( we had a nice spike there a few weeks ago ) , and the potential for years more of CB pressuring, and you have the makings of a market that could well lie flat, a la Realistic's potential scenario.

We GoldBug's have to look at that glittery stuff with a healthy dose of skepiticm, realizing that many have come to ruin with "Gold fever" in decades past.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:49 - ID#432148)
The right question...?
Do you think 1 billion people are concerned that Intel's earnings
did not meet expectations? Or, do you think that the 10% drop in
the rupiah last night, and the associated drop in other currencies
and markets was the true cause of a flight to quality?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:54 - ID#227290)
JTF & Markets

It's tough out there. I have been posting the following:
Dow -- going up
Dollar -- going down
Bonds -- going down
Gold -- going up
Copper -- going up

I haven't been looking for a drop in the Dow, not after the Dow Theory buy signal three weeks ago.
The dollar has broken resistance, and I guess it's back in an uptrend.
The bonds have performed according to plan so far.
Gold got very close to breaking out in the right direction but it couldn't get over and stay over its 100-day MA. Still, with ABX closing up 1/16 today, I have a little encouragement that we haven't seen the last of gold yet.
Also, this could be a head fake by the dollar. It might be a sucker's rally and we'll now see it fall while gold turns and moves higher.
Of course, remember that ANOTHER said we would know the end was near when we see gold and the dollar rising together. So let's watch for that.
But, all in all, I'm with you, pal. Tonight I feel like I don't have a clue. Maybe after I look at my charts, I'll see some things clearer.

The Preacher

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:55 - ID#153102)
Flight to safety = $ ^

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:56 - ID#252150)
Old Gold@ Atrocities
You are right each side committed their share of atrocities. Some were bigger or worse than others

I read that there were some during WW2 who wanted to move the nuke testing ahead so that they would have the option of using it on Germany.

I was'nt aware of the radiation in Iraq. Maybe that's why they wanted to attack again. I'm afraid that in 100 years if this planet is'nt destroyed
the U.S. will not look very good in the history books.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:57 - ID#213265)
@the scene
JTF -- Dollar met all the technical merits of proper testing of its support areas properly. Then also, I have a small fulfilled triangle on my chart which indicates that a short term change of direction was due. Guesss it made the move on the back of proven support. I'd tend to call this a technical move rather than something more fundamental. It should not last long unless it breaks outside of a larger triangle like the S&P did back at the end of January.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:58 - ID#288295)
I think we received the same response letter......Vewwy Intewesting....hmmmmmmm....Currency for a billion Moslems ( he says ) ....think about it.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 16:59 - ID#338289)
Spud Master: Flaw
Spud Master: I missed the obvious flaw in your blockade argument. Many Japanese civilians would have died by starvation in such a situation. Maybe more so than died in the two atom bomb attacks. I promise to let you have the last word on the subject if you wish. I've already posted too much off topic stuff today.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 17:03 - ID#36977)
Future GOLD stock charts . . . (?) (today)
I think we should invest in Copper coins.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 17:07 - ID#57232)
Thanks for all the posts on the dollar behavior!
I guess the bottom line is that Quantum Mechanics is simpler! Puzzling -- If this is flight to safety -- Europe, or Japan?

Donald -- any ideas?

I suspect that Intel's problems are minor relative to what may be happening behind the scenes. We should be careful not to take our own 'gloom and doom' stuff too seriously about the US markets and miss bigger problems elsewhere.

Spud Master
(Thu Mar 05 1998 17:13 - ID#273112)
@fundaMETAList : not a flaw, but a matter of choice
Granted there is no 'nice' way to die, but being starved to death via blockade gives people a chance to fight, think, overthrow their tyranical government and NOT die.

Being incinerated & turned into carbon plasma in a few milliseconds via atomic bomb blast gives NO CHANCE at all.

Think about it.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 17:13 - ID#288295)
A. Goose
Send me your email address & I will forward the response which I

(Thu Mar 05 1998 17:13 - ID#22956)
Can you send me info on that dealer please? buy some phillies

(Thu Mar 05 1998 17:14 - ID#339265)
...then it's here.

Some people fail to see it.

F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 17:15 - ID#288295)

Bully Beef
(Thu Mar 05 1998 17:15 - ID#259282)
Big bang in Japan will be nothing to compare to the one in the U.S
when the boomers lose their savings in a crash. See they believe the crap about staying in for the long term.Yea! stay in for the long term while I squirrel my savings into quality.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 17:16 - ID#246224)
Taken from Dinar Site (Section: Intro of the Dinar and Dirham) see last two sentences.
It may be that the return to the bimetallic currency will be an arduous and prolonged task. Since it was lost through a gradual erosion of monetary freedom, perhaps we will have to re-conquer it slowly and painfully going upstream back to freedom. This is the reason why we do not seek a law of reform or a law of restoration, nor a conversion or a parity, we are satisfied just with freedom. This is a short and direct path. It may take us years to tread this path and that will depend
upon the resistance from ignorance and public prejudice and the greed and love of power of financial institutions. The government may for that reason take some stages in the path, which will offer new challenges that invite the supreme effort to restore freedom. It may take a short time, however, as national interest-debt becomes manifestly unpayable, countries may decide that they cannot afford to stay in the system any longer. The system will not survive.

Recall recent news of efforts by Asean nations to free themselves from the yoke of the US$. Indonesia is primarily Muslim. And as well the recent shuttling of northern asian officials to Suadi Arabia, Iran, etc. Make your own connections.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 17:16 - ID#339265)
...and that is good news because it means...

It's here.

F*, the Unpronounceable.

Bully Beef
(Thu Mar 05 1998 17:31 - ID#259282)
When people lose interest in gold then the price goes up.
I read where an indicator was the number of hits on his web site. Fewer hits ...up gold. There are fewer hits on the gold price monitor on the SI Investor page than when I first lurked it.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 17:34 - ID#36977)
URL for Futures (cheese, currencies, GOLD, oj, etc), and lots of other stuff -- FREE

(Thu Mar 05 1998 17:45 - ID#36977)
Previous URL
For those interested in TA, the charts also have an trend analysis text. It may be very helpful for those new to TA ( "tyros" ) For instance, for the weekly April 98 gold chart,
"Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bullish, we will not classify it as extremely bullish until the following occurs: the slow moving average slope is up from previous bar. "

Lots of different analysis, including moving average, stochastic, volume indicator, etc. ( Most of which I don't understand, but there is also a tutorial. ) BTW, I have no personal interest in the site. Best I've seen. It has both breadth and depth.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 17:46 - ID#410194)
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after trading today:

Gold: Unchanged at 480,814 troy ounces

Silver: Fell 537,454 troy ounces to 89,701,355 -A 15 year low

(Thu Mar 05 1998 17:49 - ID#333232)
Silverbaron: Was this mentionned?

Allen ( USA ) : Good point - and if I'm not mistaken Indonesia is largest muslim nation by population and the 4th most populous on the planet.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 17:53 - ID#411233)

(Thu Mar 05 1998 17:53 - ID#372344)
Heard on the Street.....Psychology of Gold.....US$....Dow...
As I suggested a few days ago, a intense "anti-Gold" campaign is
well underway, was it just coincidence that at the very psychological
time Gold was ready to cross $300 we get a Portugese Bank official
bad mouthing Gold, I certainly DON"T think so! This one statement
had 2 consequences driving Gold down ( temporary ) and driving the
US$ up, since the intimate relationship between the two world wide.
We all know that the PPT is in there, now probably up to their necks
in it, since the coming Gold Bull will be a world wide event against ALL
currencies, in other words a gradual and eventual "disbelief" in paper.
We also know that some Bankers want to continue to print paper,
so it should not really surprise when such annoucements appear.
So one should not really be surprised at this Bank official's statement or
timing, and true Goldbugs LOOK for such statements and the general impact including psychological and financial, on the markets in attempt
to gage their "mood"and of course add to their positions......
Then, judging by the reaction lately of the Gold stocks,holding up rather well, the majority of Golgbugs are NOT buying the "anti-Gold"propaganda, and further they believe world investors have begun to consider the severe financial and economic problems ahead for the US and the US$. In other words these types of announcements are having an ever decreasing amount of impact on the Gold markets, and very soon will in fact have a positive impact in that, it will be cogent evidence that the " authorities" are becoming desperate,especially when NO further CB Gold sales actually take place.
ABX was actually up .33%....The Dow as I suggested yesterday ,took a hit, I made a nice bundle, I would look for another hit tomorrow......
The rally in the US$ is a "suckers" rally....NOT factored into the DOW
psychology are: very poor earnings a la Intel, highers long rates
up now to 6.06% and climbing, a heating up of the labour market,
and a probable hike in Oil prices after the Opec meeting in a few weeks...

stay tuned.....

(Thu Mar 05 1998 17:53 - ID#410194)
The copper thing
Quite an impressive upmove in Copper over the last couple of weeks but, but, but.... I closed 80% of my long positions this afternoon because I find that in this market too, many inexperienced traders are just starting to establish long positions and so It was time for me to sell them my contracts!

I keep 20% of my longs just in case it will continue upwards because everything is always possible in the markets but I have that feeling that Copper too caught the attention of too many traders this week.

And what's wrong with patting ourselves on the back once in a while?


Date: Wed Feb 18 1998 18:14
Realistic ( COMEX DATA ) ID#410194:
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after trading today:

Gold: Rose 417 troy ounces to 442,411

Silver: Fell 113,560 troy ounces to 91,825,814 -A new 15 year low

Copper: Rose 306 short tonnes to 105,975

All: There are currently about 227 million ounces of Silver open for March delivery.... with apparently about only 91 million ounces in the Comex warehouses, the situation remains strange indeed!

Finally, those watching ( and hoping ) for a bottom in Copper: it's now worth considering some upside potential near term! While the final low may not yet be in place, the downside potential is now quite limited...

(Thu Mar 05 1998 18:07 - ID#317193)
Allen ( USA ) -at least you were kind enough not to use the reference "ANOTHER" in your post. Time will, tell-hedge your bets . farfel-hope your correct, waiting for a confirmation might be akin to waiting for the last rights, you get the confirmation to late to do anything. Again-hedge your bets. By the way I've got some April calls-obviously out of the money- I plan to auction @2:29 on 3/13, any interst please advise. All proceeds will help fund my CHARITABLE physical gold trust I have established for the benefit of all who post under "TYoung" and defray all cost of gold in excess of $305. Truely a wothy cause. Tom

(Thu Mar 05 1998 18:09 - ID#316238)
Frank Venerosa
Can anyone suggest a link where one can read up on Venerosa's latest predictions? This would be greatly appreciated!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 18:10 - ID#187218)
ISLAMIC MINT replies regarding my question of new DINAR,,,,,
The return e-mail to me read:

"My team and I from the Islamic Mint have just arrived from Turkey where we are working in the further establishment of the Islamic Dinar as the world currency of one billion Muslims.

The Islamic Dinar in the hotest issue for the Muslim nation. You will be interested to know that the former Prime Minister of Turkey Necmetin Erbakan, deposed by a soft millitary coup only few mounths ago ( unnoticed by the world press ) , became a 'criminal' because he said, "the Islamic Dinar will be the currency of the Muslim people": the Turkish lira has a 100% inflation. He was not allowed to give to his own people a free and sound currency. Two weeks ago his political party was banned in Turkey and all their assets were expropriated. This is how worried they are about a little piece of gold.

The Islamic Dinar was ( is ) the currency of the Muslim world and a world currency. Its weight and its role were preserved because of they are part of the Shariah ( the Islamic Law ) . Paper money is forbidden to us. But Muslims were cheated by the same people that cheated the whole world.

Having said this, we have no distribution yet in the United States or Canada. Yesterday night I got in touch with our Production Department in South Africa. I expressed the necessity to create a distribution center in the US. I also spoke with the Amir of our movement in the US. The coins will be available to all of you within a month, Allah willing.

The coins are now available in South Africa, United Arab Emirates, and anywhere in Europe.

Islamic Mint is the only source of Islamic Dinars and Dirhams. We are planning to set up our own premises in the US at some point. Your interest may accelerate our plans.

We are delighted to hear from you. We will keep in touch with you.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 18:10 - ID#370201)
42 Million troy ounce silver delivery due tomorrow?
Any comments/ideas about the delivery of the remaining silver to warren Buffett? Silver price seems to be content below the peak a few weeks back.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 18:11 - ID#57232)
Wild day at work - wild day on Kitco! Heading home.
Here's a quote from the past, relevant in a general way:

'Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action.'

---- George Washington

Why do we no longer deserve leaders like him? Only in times of crisis? Why not before the crisis for a change?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 18:12 - ID#287338)
The Truth always has a way of coming out.
Lets say gold is your car and your neighbor wants to use your car for a certain period of time. You both agree on price and terms for the use of your car and a deal is set. After another period of time you decide that you want more for the use of your car. Why might you do this? It could be one of two reasons

1. Your car becomes more valuable to you because you feel you might need it soon.

2. You have a buyer that's interested in purchasing it.

So what's really up with the gold lease rates? Is it answer 1 or 2?

If I took out an add in the newspaper and told everyone that my car is basically worthless and then tried to sell it in that same newspaper, is that wise?

Do you really think that that The Bank of Portugal or any other central bank is going to sell more gold? When they did sell I'm sure they did it quietly without making any statements like gold only having mystical ( or was it mythical ) qualities. If their going to sell some gold, it doesn't make much sense to drive the price down first. Maybe they really want to buy some gold, so they make a statement like that to drive the price down.

The bottom line is The Central Banks want gold prices kept depressed and will play the fear factor as long as they can. The general masses will play into this fear and avoid gold like the plague. It is only us who understand, even if its just a little, about what is really going on. I, like many of you, will continue to wait patently for it to be our turn. The truth always has a way of coming out.

Charles Keeling
(Thu Mar 05 1998 18:20 - ID#344225)
Once again I do thank you for the
link to the news release on CANARC RESOURCES.

They made a smart move in the acquisition of
SILVER ore property!

Are you invested in this stock? This is the
second post that I have seen you make on
CANARC. You wouldn't be RC would you???

YES~~~~~~Now I have a bigger stake in SILVER.


(Thu Mar 05 1998 18:24 - ID#348169)
@Wet Gold
Wet Gold - I can not say enough about your latest post. I, in fact, am hardly worthy to be the one to point out that THAT communication that you have just had, may be THE most single important one concerning the future of the world's economy that we have witnessed in many years. Add that to any possible move in Asia towards hard currency, ( China etc. ) , and the world is going to be one heck of a different place than we know it now!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 18:24 - ID#288295)

Yes, and more. I can forward mine to you for a comparison if you like. Contact me at the address I posted to A. Goose earlier.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 18:28 - ID#390249)
CB gold holdings?
I know this has been posted before but I can't find it. If someone has the european CB gold holdings, I would appreciate your posting it.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 18:30 - ID#26669)
Thoughts on gold and Islam
Methinks the west is very ignorant about the reasons that Moslems buy and hold gold. This is a longtime oversight, not likely to remedy soon. Here is a link telling the Muslim perspective of the Battle of Tours. One might ponder how different it is from western accounts. Note too, the role of wealth in their account.

Charles Keeling
(Thu Mar 05 1998 18:31 - ID#344225)
Venerosa held a telephone conference
about a month ago. He is to release a new
book very soon.

His conference call and other infor can be
found at:

(Thu Mar 05 1998 18:34 - ID#372180)
First Intel...Now Motorola
Motorola earnings will fall way short.....

(Thu Mar 05 1998 18:36 - ID#372344)
@ Deja-vu Motorola just said it's earning are also down significantly..SP now down almost 5 points..

(Thu Mar 05 1998 18:40 - ID#335190)
A heating up of the Labour Market @ A heck of a different place. Debt & Tax.
What's the cost of corporate fraud?

ELP / CALM -- If it was discovered that people on welfare had ripped $2 billion off taxpayers, how big would the headlines be? Of if they caught people on UI sneaking $60 billion out of the country without paying taxes, how loud would the outcry be?

Yet that's exactly what corporations and the banks have done in recent months. And the fraud has gone almost ignored. The federal Science Research Tax Credit was supposed to cost taxpayers $100 million, but eventually cost $4.2 billion. Of this, $2 billion was fraudulently claimed and will probably never be recovered. The reporting? -- a quarter-inch headline in the Ottawa Citizen announced, "Revenue Canada ready to close book on $4.2 billion fiasco -- biggest tax loss in history." ( Did you miss that one? )

And in May the Financial Post reported that "Billions of dollars slip offshore undetected." Banks and corporations ship money out of the country without telling the government, thereby avoiding taxes. ( Did you miss the media campaign against corporate and bank fraud? So did we. )

Charles Keeling
(Thu Mar 05 1998 18:45 - ID#344225)
Read the report by Veneroso
& Associates, a respected
economic consultant and
investment strategy advisor to
governments, international
agencies, financial institutions,
and corporations world wide.
You may also see the
transcript of the conference
call with Frank Veneroso...

(Thu Mar 05 1998 18:47 - ID#26793)
Bullion ( gold and silver ) can be purchased via Central Fund of Canada CEF on the Amex. It is held in Canada and insured against Canadian confiscation by Lloyds.. Do not hold certificates in street name. Take delivery. Yes, I hold a few gold mining stocks. They are OK if you do your homework and can assure yourself that they will not go bankrupt at this gold price were it to remain flat for a year or more.

Charles Keeling
(Thu Mar 05 1998 18:56 - ID#344225)
Your logic in your last post is, IMHO,
very wise.

Without all the false rumors and fake press
releases what would the price of gold be

That was a good analogy about the car.

They have effectively removed GOLD from the
list of places for money to go when searching
for a safe haven. BUT FOR HOW LONG WILL THE

(Thu Mar 05 1998 18:57 - ID#26793)
@JTF ... Dollar Yen
On a day when foreign holders of U.S. stocks fear a down market they close out positions probably converting the dollar proceeds to their home currency at the same time. This can be a significant factor in dollar exchange rates.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 18:57 - ID#432221)
India's consumption of gold. Why?

The reports I've read indicate India is far and away the biggest consumer of gold. India is mostly Hindu, no? Would someone please enlighten me.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:02 - ID#26793)
Bundesbank comments lead to dollar-mark frenzy.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:08 - ID#347457)
It was a confused day but not so bad
Hey folks, cheer up. It was not so bad today. I for sure am confused about the market direction ( e.g. everything goes down, high tech, low tech, bonds, gold ) , however PM stocks did not do so bad. In view of overall market decline, I am happy that I made some money today. Fidelity FSAGX dropped just by one penny ( -0.07% ) , however, energy services went up. I turned into gambler and so far it pays. Keep my money in gold mutual funds offsetting in by betting my other money on some sectors movement. This makes me money most of the time and I won't miss the up-movement when it really happens.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:08 - ID#287129)
People see only what they want to see!
I'm sure that most of us on this forum, both posters and lurkers, have waited for many months...wondering if and when this gold bear will ever go back into hibernation. Meanwhile, I've noticed that over the last year, especially since summer of 1997, the media seems to blast every piece of bad news concerning gold into the four corners of the earth. Conversely, statements made that are pro-gold seem to get covered over or swept under the carpet.

You would think that just the info on the supply/demand over the last few years would make investors stop and we need insurance? Gold is insurance. Who, in his/her right mind, would gamble $100,000 or more on a home without fire insurance? Yet investors gamble with their entire life savings in the stock market with NO precious metals to insure themselves against the stock market bear. Does that make any sense?

Lately it seems that MANY pro-gold comments seem to make little or no difference in starting an ongoing rally...yet ONE COMMENT by a mouth in Portugal who happens to be a banker was apparently responsible for gold plunging down several dollars this week. This is totally illogical to me. Even in the face of many reasons to own gold, almost nobody sees the handwriting on the wall. I can only come to one conclusion: People see only what they want to see!


(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:14 - ID#298259)
@Charles Keeling
No, I have no holdings in Canarc, it's news articles are related to ECO which I received as a spin-off many many years ago. I will continue to post Canarc's news articles for you when I see them.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:15 - ID#401460)
Congress & IMF
You know things have to be really bad if the US Congress approved the IMF funding.

Just more $ into the Bankers pockets. Whereelse would it go - not to the man/women on the street
Thursday March 5, 6:35 pm Eastern Time

Rubin lauds House panel backing for IMF funding

WASHINGTON, March 5 ( Reuters ) - Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin on Thursday welcomed a decision from the
House Banking Committee to approve cash for the International Monetary Fund.

``I welcome the House Banking Committee's action to support full funding for the IMF. This is a very significant step,''
Rubin said in a statement.

He added: ``We urge Congress to act quickly to strengthen the resources of the IMF so that we have the capacity to deal
with risks to financial stability around the world.''

Wait till the employment number comes out tomorrow!


Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:16 - ID#26395)
More Changes Ahead
All posts which exceed 100 words in length will automatically be given a copyright  header, reserving the rights for the author. This is being done to encourage more posts with original thinking and provide everyone with some degree of control over if and how their contributions are distributed.

For anyone who likes to ramble inanely at length, the new headers should at least be helpful in making them feel important.

If anyone has any concerns or questions about this new policy, please let me know at

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:16 - ID#26395)
Rules revision for some.
Kitco netiquette rule #1 says: "Don't post any derogatory remarks regarding any group's race, religion, or ethnic background."

To Midas: Once again I ask you to refrain from posting messages that contravene this guideline. I'll re-iterate what JTF has said that our discussion group is international in scope and attracting knowledgeable contributors from other countries is absolutely encouraged. Remarks like the one you made this morning serve no purpose other than to dissuade newcomers from stepping in.

To OLD GOLD: On Sat Feb 28 1998 20:38 You said: "..BTW, being Jewish myself, I feel free to "tell it like it is." .."

It doesn't work like that Mr. GOLD. The rule applies to everybody regardless of race, religion or ethnic background.

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:16 - ID#26395)
Excerpt from this morning's Gartman Letter
"PRECIOUS METALS ARE WEAKER AGAIN despite the news that one of the major sellers in the gold market in recent years, the Australian Reserve Bank, has apparently sold all of the gold it intends to sell for quite some long while into the future... or at least so says Australia's Treasurer, Mr. Peter Costello. Mr. Costello said, in a report to the Parliament, that the Bank holds about 80 tonnes of gold, which represents about 7% of reserves. The Bank believes this is consistent with Australia's long term requirements, and has no plans for additional sales or purchases.We have no reason to doubt Mr. Costello's statement, for the Bank last year announced that it had sold nearly 170 tonnes of gold prior to July 1, apparently replacing that gold with purchases of government bonds that returned a stream of income to the Australian people. That was certainly the"trade" of the year last year in our opinion.

The Gold/silver ratio stands then at 46.94:1 compared to 47.02:1 yesterday, but still apparently tracing out a large interim top once again below the 50-51:1 level of two months ago. Platinum's premium over gold is quietly expanding at the same time, from yesterday's $86.80 to today's $88.20.

Given the comments made by the head of the Portuguese central bank noted here yesterday, we shall continue to recommend sales of gold vs. purchases of silver as the central banks continue to offer gold on any and all rallies creating enormous supplies, while silver production falls as mines producing silver remain unprofitable. As an aside, we note that the bullish consensus figures for crude oil have fallen to single digits; that is, less than 10% of those analysts covering the crude oil market are bullish at this time; 90% or more are bearish. Extremes such as this are rare, and very often mark important lows. Those of our clients who are bearish of crude should take very serious note of this circumstance and at the very least reduce their exposure... perhaps materially. "

Source: The Gartman Letter March 5 1998

(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:19 - ID#401460)
Grant - India & Gold

India is a large producer of jewelry.


Strad Master
(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:25 - ID#250297)
Gets my blood boilling!
OLD GOLD: How can you post up such reprehensible propagandistic twaddle as your "article" about US responsibility for Iraqui cancer rates? God Almighty - I can't believe that an intelligent person would give credence to such drivel! Leaving aside that it is scientific hogwash anyhow, how about attributing the source? Is it taken straight from the Baghdad Daily Gazette? Need I remind you that it was Saddam and Co.who invaded Kuwait in the first place? The US wouldn't have had to be there if it weren't for that. In war, the general idea is to win as fast as possible, using whatever means necessary to do that. If we have weapons that disable tanks, then we should use them. What are we supposed to say, "We have these armor-piercing shells that can take out a tank with one or two shots but, golly gee, we can't use 'em 'cause they are made of uranium and they might cause long-term health problems to the occupant?" Gimmie a break! The same is true for the US vs.Japan in WW 2. In case you and some others on this forum forget their history, the US sent film of the Nuclear tests in the desert to the Japaneese High Command so they could have some idea of what they were up against. They refused to capitulate. Even after Nagasaki, the High Command wanted to press on, and would have, but for the unprecedented action of the Emperor who threatened to abdicate if they didn't surrender then and there. Dropping the Bomb shortened the war - pure and simple - and saved countless American lives! If you don't believe me, look it up in "Modern Times" by Paul Johnson. BTW, need I also remind anyone here that it was the Japaneese who attacked Pearl Harbor? That innocent Japaneese died throughout the war is an unspeakable tragedy. That the Japaneese High Command bears the responsibility for ALL that resulted from their perfidy is justice.
I had to get that off my chest. Aside from that I have no strong feelings on the subject!

Strad Master
(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:29 - ID#250297)
Answers to my earlier post.
AURATOR: RE your 13:39 to me. Yes, you got it right 125% of your home's value. I've been hearing these ads for months on Los Angeles radio, but only today did I hear the hook regarding using the money to invest in that "hot stock".

Strad Master
(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:39 - ID#250297)
Answers to my earlier post - 2
SPUD MASTER: While it is a common practice of many to get themselves into massive debt and walk away from it by declairing bankruptsy, personally I find it to be a reprehensible position to take. It is also known by the term STEALING. I remember posting up here several months ago about an article in the LA Times that detailed how AIDS patients who were dying would go out and rack up enormous debts on several credit cards with the intention of dying and thus leaving the merchants holding the bag. Suddenly, they found themselves to be in trouble because the new cocktail of drugs was making them better and now they were staring at a whole mountain of bills that needed paying. I was soundly criticized by one regular menber of this forum who expressed to me ( in effect ) how in finances it is dog-eat-dog anyhow, so the merchants should have known better. That poster's moral capital dropped considerably in my estimation and I'll be holding onto my wallet in case I ever meet him face to face. I'll say it again, racking up credit debt without the slightest intention of ever paying off is called THEFT! Only a morally corrupt, rotten, values-challenged person would do such a thing.

Whooee! Am I on a roll today, or what?

Strad Master
(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:45 - ID#250297)
Answsers to my earlier post - 3
JTF, STRADDLER, & MIDAS: Thanks for your well-reasoned and thoughtful posts of 11:23, 11:26 and 11:48 respectively. I hear that it is now a common practice of credit card providers to issue new credit to people as they emerge from bankruptsy court, since they are the perfect credit risk - NO DEBT! "Yippie! Free at last! All those I owe money to be dammned!" What are we coming to?

OK - now I'm happy. Off to practice some Bach and Schubert.

Mo in To
(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:46 - ID#347205)
More Bad News for Techies
Hello out there in Kitcoland,
Thought I would share...Motorola has posted its second profit warning..not good news for the NASDAQ or the DOW. Tomorrow may be more rough riding for paper holders.

Mo in To

(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:47 - ID#215379)
Miro, I agree, But......
Lately, at least the last year, any hint of a correction in the stock market has also brought the gold down with it. Gold has not been acting like an insurance lately. I guess cause of all those bad mouth bankers.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:49 - ID#335190)
JOBS @ 300 lost in New York by Citibank-9,000 lost globally "ALL IS WELL"
March 5, 1998
Citibank seen cutting about 300 New York area jobs

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Citibank is expected to issue layoff notices to nearly 300 of its New York City area employees beginning next week, workers at the bank said Thursday.

Jack Morris, spokesman for parent Citicorp, confirmed an unspecified number of layoffs were coming, but added that they were part of a restructuring program announced in October.

At that time, Citicorp said that about 9,000 positions would be eliminated globally but 1,500 would be added over an 18-month period. Worldwide, the company has about 94,000 employees.

The layoffs could affect about 7 percent of the 4,000 Citibank employees in New York area branches, or 280 positions, according to some employees who have been briefed by their managers.

On Oct. 21, Citicorp said it was taking an $889 million pretax restructuring charge against its earnings. Chairman and Chief Executive John Reed said the charge represented costs that would be incurred in connection with cost management programs and customer service initiatives that would improve operational efficiency and productivity.

One source said that the layoffs expected in the New York region would largely hit the processing area -- the systems by which the bank moves transactions from inception to the end stage.

Citicorp has many corporate and global staff members in New York in addition to the 4,000-strong greater New York banking group.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:52 - ID#215379)
Wrong poster, It was Skip not Miro, sorry.

Mo in To
(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:52 - ID#347205)
India's Consumption of Gold, Why?
It could be a simple answer, maybe they are just smarter than the average bear. [to coin a phrase] Okay, cheap shot, but I couldn't resist....

Mo in To

(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:53 - ID#210114)
Skip: Bear Market
Skip, I totally agree with your comments. The fact is that we are in a bear. All good news is ignored, all bad news is pounced upon.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:55 - ID#26793)
Chinese Premier frankly discusses banking and other problems facing China

(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:55 - ID#210114)
Well done LGB. Goldbug at heart but intellectual sceptic. I enjoy reading your posts and those of REALISTIC. They are far more objective than most on this line.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:59 - ID#26793)
This is a recording..We will not devalue..this is a recording..We will not devalue

(Thu Mar 05 1998 19:59 - ID#287338)
I agree 125%!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 20:01 - ID#262242)
Time to pour another cup
WOW Strad just how many cups of coffee did you have?????????

(Thu Mar 05 1998 20:04 - ID#26793)
Japan bank rescue team has 1 trillion yen at the ready

(Thu Mar 05 1998 20:09 - ID#25588)
April Gold isn't looking healthy right now. The target area of 275-280 ( 2/4/98, 2/6/98 ) April Gold looks like it will be hit on schedule with the cycle lows due now through early April. If the XAU can avoid serious damage during a move under 280, a meaningful low will be put in place. If it collapses with the Gold even lower Gold prices can be expected. May Silver isn't looking to great either. A move to the 5.50 area is still likely in this time frame. March SnP should turn back up no later then Monday. If the low was not seen today 1025 is the next area of support.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 20:18 - ID#210114)
From where did you get your information?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 20:26 - ID#225273)
Market Comments
To all:

Things are getting a little dicey in the markets.

Gold has retraced farther than I wanted to see. It failed to stay above its 100-day MA and has now retraced all of last Friday's move. Still, it's above last week's high and could make a move starting tomorrow. Time is running out but until gold breaks down, I remain bullish and continue looking for some explosive upside action.

The XAU has held up much better: Barrick did what I hoped the XAU index would do today. ABX filled its gap and then turned up to close on the high of the day. ( ABX remains above its 100-day MA. ) Homestake dropped 1/16 today after remaining unchanged in the face of a declining gold price the past two days. HM looks very strong.
In the XAU, Newmont and ASA have been the worst performers. And the South African seniors have put in a pretty terrible week altogether.
The XAU remains with very acceptable limits for a pullback after last week's upside explosion. I look for the index to continue its uptrend shortly, hopefully tomorrow.

Silver has remained above last week's low and with today's turnaround looks ready to move higher. Coeur d'Alene filled the gap on its chart that was left from last Friday. It may be ready to turn higher again as well.

The Dow took a hit today. I think the major trend is still up although it would not be unusual for it to retest the "breakout point" at the old high at approximately 8,240.

The U.S. dollar index surprisingly broke above last week's high today with a powerful upmove. Technically, it looks like the dollar has passed the test of its 100-day MA and is poised for new highs above 101.68. The level of 101.79 was the high last August. If the dollar rises above it, then we'll see that the bull market is ready for another leg up.

The decline in the bonds looks like the beginning of something, not the end of something. I look for the bonds to decline further over the next few weeks.

Tomorrow should be interesting. Happy trading.

The Preacher

(Thu Mar 05 1998 20:27 - ID#238295)
etnic "slurs"
Bart; Since this is your site, you set the rules. But I have noticed WHAT SOME WOULD CONSIDER derogatory references to many national and ethnic groups on this site. These include blacks, whites, Asians, Arabs, Moslems, and very recently Japanese ( they are stupid, right ) , as well as Jews. Unless you ban ALL SUCH REFRENCES you will be guilty of the sin of HYPOCRISY. What is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 20:27 - ID#225273)
Charles Keeling: A Question, Sir

What is the status on Canarc? I thought I heard it got bought out but now hear it has acquired new property.

The Preacher

(Thu Mar 05 1998 20:29 - ID#25588)

(Thu Mar 05 1998 20:32 - ID#390249)
China to layoff 4 million
Per the attached, China is to ax 11 of 40 ministries which will put 4 million additional people out of work.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 20:38 - ID#372344)
@ Not in my 17:53 post ,reason 5, Indonesia scoffs IMF(US)will go with currency board(+SEA currency)

(Thu Mar 05 1998 20:48 - ID#238295)
Good site for gold, stock, aand commodity quotes.Updates automatically every 60 seconds;

Gold flat tonight despite weaker dollar. Agree with preacher that tomorrow will be very important. If gold cannot rally convincingly then a drop under $290 is a good bet.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 20:48 - ID#57232)
Brief visit - chores. The Dinar: Seeing the future -- perhaps not so dimly
Donald: I think you found the reason why the dollar went up -- talk about dropping German interest rates. This could be the beginning of deflationary changes in Europe if the most rigorously defended major european currency is loosening the reins of credit. This is not consistent with the launching of a strong EURO, is it? Perhaps the dollar can go up some more -- as the defacto worlds premier currency. Is the EURO going to be a stillbirth?

WetGold,Mooney, all: I think WetGold's post today regarding the Dinar is by far is the most significant Kitco post for the month.

The Moslem nations/people represent 1 billion individuals or so, and they could very well bail out Indonesia -- the world's 4th most populous nation. If that deposed Moslem prime minister of Turkey is able to launch the Dinar, that could also be the foundation of a new gold-based Moslem currency.

I think we owe our Moslem/Arab friends more respect that we give them for several reasons:

First, they are very values/family oriented, in ways that many Westerners have lost.

Secondly, despite the press, most are not terrorists and warlike, as we have been taught -- implicitly. Just think of all the wars where the Moslem peoples are victims, not the aggressors.

Thirdly, they have strict laws against debt and usury. We Kitcoites all know where our credit/debt - oriented culture is leading us, but not most of the rest of the Western peoples. I suspect that most of the Moslem world sees what we are doing to ourselves with our debt, far better than we see ourselves.

The human civilization is slowly moving toward a new acceptance of much of what the Moslem world holds in high value -- a need for rebirth in family values, a need to reduce excessive use of debt, etc. I do not agree with the treatment of women in the fundamentalist Moslem religious groups, and probably would not support other Moslem practices if I knew about them. However, if we -- the Western world -- do not voluntarily adapt some of the most desireable of the Moslem practices -- we may be forced to adopt more stringent Moslem practices many years from now.

It is our free will to choose the right path, and it is much more than the Dinar we are talking about. We are talking about a cycle of human civilization that is probably more than several hundreds years in length.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 20:49 - ID#153102)
Get used to it. You were free to say anything so long as you were 'responsible" about it. But, you didn't pay attention and obey and now you are a "website terrorist". Just be grateful kitco is in Canada and that so far at least there is no extradiction treaty for "domestic terrorists".

(Thu Mar 05 1998 20:52 - ID#28781)
comments on t-bonds

Price action on t-bonds have now touched the April - September rising trendline. Tomorrows release of employment data could spark an acceleration through the trendline or reverse the trend for one final rally. If that is the case a nice three wave pattern has been left behind with equality between waves a and c of a larger fourth wave.

This could result in some further price pressure on gold to the 285-290 area. This would be short-term. Looking at the big picture decline of Feb 96 to Jan 97 an intermediate rally needs to take place first for gold lasting anywhere from 8-13 months. 340-360 is looking more and more likely as we progress through 98


(Thu Mar 05 1998 20:53 - ID#393224)
No panic in Oz.
Aussie gold index -8.1 to 1087.3 ( ho hum ) . All Ords +10.1 to 2662.8.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 20:58 - ID#28781)
Preacher-reflection on Xau comments

Yes, gold stocks still looking better than the bullion. One more decline on Xau to 66-67 would only serve to wind the spring even tighter. Tomorrow is indeed going to be revealing


(Thu Mar 05 1998 21:01 - ID#153102)
I see you posted about Moslems and made some favorable remarks. Be warned. Complimentary remarks made about a particular ethno-religious-political-geogrphical-national-sex-preferential-other group are BY NECESSARY IMPLICATION derogatory to all other groups. Derogatory remarks made by necessary implication can be legally indistinguishible from derogatory remarks in general and will in some countries place you under suspicion as being a potential "website terorist" or evven a "domestic terrorist".

(Thu Mar 05 1998 21:01 - ID#26793)
So. Korean derivatives trading up 60%+ during 1997

(Thu Mar 05 1998 21:01 - ID#269191)
Lease rates.
It depends on why the lease rates are rising whether its bullish or
bearish. In the case of gold its probably bearish ( unfortunately ) .
The withdrawl of a central bank from the lease market probably means
that central bank is going to sell. The fact that the curve has inverted
with the shortest maturity loan rising sharply indicates increased
short selling ( short sellers borrow at the short end ) . Short sellers
have been emboldened by the Portugese comments and the failure of
gold to make any progress in the wake of previous short covering and
forward sale buybacks. They are probably shorting in anticipation of
the announcement of more Central Bank selling.

I think we all got too carried away with the comments from Davos.
I think the Central Bankers were trying to bull the markets a little
so they could get a little better price for their gold.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 21:02 - ID#393224)
Do NOT fur vun moment zink zat zese Auzzie jokes haff gone unnoticed!!! Your name hass been taken!! Vee are now making up zee list fur zee firing squad, and after zee invasion, vee shall be starting at zee END of zee alphabet!!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 21:05 - ID#26793)
Senate Majority Leader Lott says IMF bailout will be tied to abortion issues

(Thu Mar 05 1998 21:06 - ID#288295)
JTF @ Islamic Mint
This same letter response was received by a number of us, and I agree that the possible implications are staggering, and very threatening to the paper interests. I responded to the writer of this reply with the suggestion that if he has an interest in using advertising to promote the Islamic Mint mission, he could not find a more receptive worldwide audience than on this forum.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 21:08 - ID#257148)
Racial Slurs ---it's a bit of a dag.
Old Gold
Fortunately Aussies & NZers have thick hides and can laugh at themselves. As I see you can too.

Funny thing with this PC Racist crapola, ask a Japanese what he thinks of Americans, you'll be told one thing in public and another in Private ( if you're lcky ) . Just as well only Europeans are racists. ;-}

I jus don't like it when I read remarks dissing sheep on kitco. Every sheep a wanted sheep, I say.

aurator Defender of the sheep.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 21:11 - ID#339212)
@ Bart on copyrights

Now you are going to have people expounding their theories so they can become "celebrated authors"!!!!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 21:15 - ID#153102)
Imitations of the speech and mockery of the political history of a national group are derogatory of that national group per se and can be legally indistinguishible from derogratory remarks in general and in some countries will place you under suspicion as a "website terrorist" or a "domestic terrorist".

(Thu Mar 05 1998 21:19 - ID#288295)
Perhaps I was a little hasty with my judgement on the gold dinar. Mea culpa. Never have I been so glad to be wrong.....Of course, there will need to be a distribution center in NZ ( if the lights ever come back on ) ( :^ )

(Thu Mar 05 1998 21:21 - ID#57232)
Reverse discrimination by a single post? Cyclical backlash already?
mozel: I hope that is your tongue-in-cheek humor, but I can't tell. I only want to adapt the features of the Moslem world that you hold dear just as much as do I. Family values, no debt,etc. Agreed? I must admit that the Asian world also has much of this, and I am far more familiar with their world than the Moslem world.

While I have your attention, can you tell me if Kenneth Starr as special prosecutor has the right to subpoena Monic Lewinsky's former lawyers notes? Is that protected by lawyer-client priveledge, regardless of the source of the subpoena?

I have another question. The leak of Clinton's sworn testimony regarding Monica Lewinsky seems to be timed to benefit Clinton the most, not K. Starr. Is it possible that Clinton's army of lawyers -- in particular that Bennett individual -- is smart enough to leak the sworn testimony, and make it look like Kenneth Starr's people leaked it? I think so!

Lastly, I have a comment. BC testified that he talked to Vernon Jordan about Monica needing a job, but it was his secretary who actually carried the deed out. If I did that with my secretary, and I gave the excuse that my secretary carried out my request -- so that I was not responsible -- I would guess that the Judge would consider my claim ridiculous. I guess BC is again above the law. What do you think will happen -- is BC going to weasel out of this one too?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 21:22 - ID#28781)
Placer Dome looking very constructive

Last weeks soft decline in gold stocks allowed PDG to re-test the rising trendline connecting the Dec and Jan'98 lows. Nice little bounce late last week off the triple bottom. On the latest decline momentum diverged very positively with price. A move above 18.75 would confirm a break of the downtrend line going back to the Oct. 97 highs and open the possibility of a move ultimately to the major trendline of the last two years currently crossing at 23.50

Prices in Cdn dollars


(Thu Mar 05 1998 21:35 - ID#26793)
Japan caught in destructive deflationary spiral

(Thu Mar 05 1998 21:39 - ID#252150)
FundaMetalist@Superior Knowledge
I'll defer to your superior knowledge & your philosophical/moral rationalizations regarding Japan. Oviously you are better informed & better qualified than was Curtis Lemay, who was only the U.S.A.F General in charge of the Pacific theatre @ the time the bombs were dropped, & probably 1 of the 2 or 3 most respected Generals who served in WW2.

This is my last post on this subject.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 21:41 - ID#317193)
100 Words-ALL
To your great dismay, I shall not post for a while. I must be gone for a time-to conjure up a post of at least 100 words that may earn me a big C ( with a O ) that will provide my childrens children with the wealth that comes from being a much quoted Oracle. Lets see, maybe gold @ $30,000.10 at 1:37 on 3/13/1998! Or ,alternatively, gold @ $257.30 at 10:37 on 3/13/1998. OH, I must be gone for a time to consider such wisdom. Pray for me in this pursuit for I wish not to guess the future but to foretell the future. For if given 100 words AND a copyright I shall be transformed. Err-anybody got some tea leaves. Your newest ORACLE. Tom

(Thu Mar 05 1998 21:48 - ID#187218)
I've also replied in similar fashion and asked that he keep us informed as to the progress of the Islamic Bank's efforts.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 21:49 - ID#317193)
Mr. Kitner
I'm sorry, I could not resist. No offense or at least not much intended. I never THOUGHT ( S ) about spending $25+ for something already on this site. I understand your restiction now restricts use of ANOTHERS thoughts by those wishing to profit from same. Tom

(Thu Mar 05 1998 21:49 - ID#153102)
It is not unusual for a "website terrorist" or a "domestic terroist" to be disbelieving of the crime of which he is charged. Nevertheless, remarks that are complimentary of one group are by necessary implication deorgatory of all other groups. The doctrine of strict liability, popularly known as zero tolerance, requires all remarks that are derogatory of groups to be prosecuted with equal vigor. If a pattern of such derogatory remarks by necessary implication can be established by investigation, this evidence can be introduced against you at your trial.

A prosecutor can issue a subpoena for anything he can think of. The unwilling subject of a subpoena must defend. One way is to show cause why the court should not enforce his or her compliance. This could be expensive since Starr has unlimited credit to pay for research, briefs, and appeals. What is attorney-client privilege ? It is a privilege. Like a kitco posting privilege, it can be taken away, limited, suspended, etc. Like the attorney's bar privilege. Starr has an aura of precedent for his subpoena at least. The precedent occurred when the government launched an offensive on defense attorneys and their "drug lord" clients a couple of years ago.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 21:50 - ID#432221)
OK Next question... Why is POG following the S&P DOWN?

Today saw the largest retraction of the stock markets in a few months, typical response of POG would be up. Is today unusual? What gives?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 21:54 - ID#222231)
I see that I'm not expressing myself clearly to many or that some of my posts are misconstrued and misunderstood. This must be my fault because my writing skills are not as eloquent and proficient as most. I apologise to all for taking up band width. This will be my last and final post.

I finally realised that if some consider me a socialist, pinko or whatever, after reading my posts, that my words were taken out of context or misunderstood. This hurt me more than a dagger into my heart.

I have tried to impart my views as to a conspiracy by the powers that be, to control and enslave every person on this planet. Why do the CB's announce sales at the right time to influence the price of gold? If they are not working in concert or conspirantorial way and from most corners of the world, then what are they doing? Is it all coincidence? If they are capable of doing the above, what else are they capable of doing. These elitists are natural predators with exceptional skills and intelligence and power at thier beck and call. This is the nature of man. Most people are satisfied to live a properous, happy life, with no intent to harm thier neighbor or fellow man. Others have no bounds to complete autocratic control, wealth and power, and will not stop until they own all. This type of inhumane animal exists as a subspecies today and in our midsts. Up to now, it's been mind and body that they own. In the near future it will be mind, body and SOUL.

The first test started in Europe. When NR captured Englands wealth after the battle of waterloo, which I am sure most know about. Then the next real test began in 1913, when the Fed Reserve act was enacted by traitors in congress. Senator McFadden knew it for what it was and fought it tooth and nail, but as we should know, men are corruptible, and these corruptible congressmen passed the act at a time I would call, "in the middle of the night".

The next act by these scoundrels was to create a market bubble in the 20's, and then a banking crises of such proportion, that a major depression occured ( SOUND FAMILIAR TODAY ) . This depression was of such magnitude that the masses would submit to any solution that would ease thier pain. Hence welfare, social security, greater government control over our lives, and acceptance of these and other conditions without a whimper. Control of other sovereignties began in earnest. This condition worked beyond thier dreams and they have set the wheels in motion for the next phase.

This next phase is about to become reality in the very near future. This phase entails the whole world. China, the Muslims or anyone else will not stop them, even if a war is required to reach thier goals. If they could create the same conditions as the great depression in the whole world, the masses, 5.5 bil people, less 100 to 200 mil elitists, the people will accept conditions of a one world monetary system , which they will tell us is for own good and benefit. They will then enact laws, covenants and other scurilous rules for total autocratic control of our lives. Asia is the first indication. Who will be next; America? Europe? When America and Europe fall, they will have accomplished thier FAIT ACCOMPLI!

Gold will trade in a range of $275/oz to $400/oz for quite a while. As long as CB's, BIS own over 36,000 metric tonnes and sell forward , they will hold all the aces. They can control demand for quite a while by selling into the market when needed to dampen demand while buying future production. Even if they do this at a loss at times, the amount of losses is inconsequential to them as long as they keep the price within the above range, thereby deluding us all to the effect that INFLATION IS DEAD, AND THE MONETARY SYSTEM IS SOUND, while in reality, the world is on the verge of bankruptcy. When these massive debts implode, banks will be wiped out, and a world wide depression will ensue.

We all wonder why gold has not reacted upward. I see and agonise with many on this forum as to when it will go up, if ever. As long as the propoganda machines are working full bolt, the CB's are controlling price, the perception of gold as a true value will suffer. If and when they can not control the price of gold, and it starts skyrocketing, you can bet your bottom dollar that the crises is not far behind and by that time it will be too late. It is so cheap at the current price that I pondered and wondered why? In reality, if you calculate the price of gold to where it should be today relative to money demand, scarcity for people on a world wide basis, it should be much greater than $300/oz. Can anyone deny that these things are happening under our very noses? If anyone else can give a better explanation for this paradox, I would like to know it.

To all the lurkers out there. Gold should be acquired and or speculated with discretionary money. My suggestion is not in a safety deposit box or wharehouse if you buy physical. If you decide to speculate, do so at your own risk. If you take a loss, do so as a man and not as a cry baby. If you win, you are smarter than most. Remember, you are playing against a stacked deck. I wish you luck in your endevours.

a.j., my formula is, do not try to explain to anyone who has no conception of what I said or wrote, for it would be futile. I apologise to you for my unwarrented reactions to your posts.

mozel, LGB, Tolerant1, JTF, ANOTHER and all of the other fine handles, thank you for putting up with me.




(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:00 - ID#431263)
Anyone here know what mein Freund Arch Crawford has to say about the current market situation? He was supposed to appear on CNBC a couple of weeks ago and because of technical reasons? did not! Mike Sheller is calling for some real fireworks internationally ( AG, IMF, Clinton, Latin America, Dow ) in the April-May timeframe. What sayest Arch?

Looks like Meltdown 2 is picking up where she left off last night--RED, RED, and MORE RED! God help us if the wage component of the jobs report tomorrow is .6% or higher and new jobs over 300,000. The Bond market is getting real nervous now that 6% has been surpassed and successfully tested, and will quickly take out 6.25% if the jobs numbers are anywhere near what I think they will be! Joe Battipaglia still looking for 5% long bond and 9,600 Dow in 98! Michael Metz thinks the Dow is already reflecting a 5 1/2% long bond and will tank big time once it becomes clear that we're on our way to 6 1/2%+ instead! I agree! Quite frankly I'll be even more worried if Battipaglia is right and we head down to 5% on the long bond as this will definitely signal to me that DEFLATION, DEPRESSION, DEFAULT headed our way! Methinks China protests too much that it will not devalue the Yuan! From what I saw on ABC News tonight, it's only a matter of time which is FAST RUNNING OUT! I am now 90% in cash, gold and cheese! 5% in gold stocks, and 5% in gold calls, OEX puts, and T-BOND puts! LET HER RIP!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:03 - ID#153102)
@Pete You can't leave when you just started rockin' and rollin'.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:08 - ID#284246)

I am interested in your opinions.

If you find another discussion group that you feel more comfortable about contributing to, please post the URL so that I ( and others? ) may continue to read your posts.

Regards, Scarface

(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:10 - ID#317193)
For the sake of GOD-lighten up. Belief in a conspiracy does not condemn you to dispair. Know your beliefs, adopt a plan of action and live with the results. If you can't live with the downside of any plan of action then the plan is not right for you. Give someone a warm fuzzy-enjoy a little. Tom

(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:10 - ID#269245)
This is an international site, "us" does not mean the USA
Motorola is giving a very strong warning: "well below expected earnings." I see the plight of the USA this way. The country is built on debt and on industries which will not prosper in times of recession ( ie high tech, financial services, insurance, etc. ) . Not to mention that everything is overvalued: beer, real estate, cars, stocks, contraceptives, THE DOLLAR. A LOT of the USA's power comes from its high tech industry. The success of this industry has created A LOT of inexperienced wealth which propped up the markets with euphoria. When that euphoria dies, so will the market. I am already witnessing some very jittery computer geeks all around me. On even questions whether or not he will have a job in a couple years ( what? huh? c-c-could you repeat that please? ) . The HUGE raises are over. The stock options will be quite unattractive. I sold last year. I think others are beginning to respect that decision. Just wait until I tell them what I bought! : )
Oh yeah... remember LA? Well, I heard on the radio that the gap between the rich and poor is kinda HUGE! Thank god we got rid of racism years ago! At least we don't have racial clashes to worry about. And, we've got agriculture, McDonalds, and second-hand stores. Too bad I'm gunna miss it! I'll be on a boat somewhere in the South Pacific, seeking out those scalpers with front row tickets to the Sidney Games! Seeya! - c

(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:13 - ID#28781)
@grant -- step back look at the big picture

Good inter-market relationship question. Have read some good articles about the subject over the years in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities and by Martin Pring


(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:15 - ID#348169)
@Spock and a few others!
Spock - You must be extremely new around here. APH, when he speaks, Is next to GOD! I am serious here. He has the best track record of ANY analyst at this site. ( In other words - IN THE WORLD! ) I don't know how he does it and I don't care, as long as he keeps doing it! ( APH - e-mail me and let me know how you do it! :- ) )

(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:17 - ID#57232)
Interesting Comments
mozel: I still do not know if you are serious. Are you talking as a lawyer, or as an individual? If every thing that human beings need to do to correct their errors needs editing by a lawyer or 'word policeman' of some kind to prevent the application of the 'zero tolerance' drug enforcement rule, we are in serious trouble, and we can forget about one of our basic rights, that of free speech. Bart Kitner seems far more tolerant than the rules of discourse that what you are referring to.

Where is your desire for the elimination of debt, and control of the money supply?

What I was getting at with BC is the power of the special prosecutor versus other prosecutors. I gather what you are saying is that there are no well-defined rules, and all that matters is who has the deepest pockets, special prosecutor or no. That is a pretty damning assessment of our system of justice, though you might be right. I would guess that that statment of yours would be more damning than anything I said today. But -- I do remember the Inslaw fiasco -- I think that was Justice and Treasury.

By the way, if you are right that the deepest pocket wins, I would guess that the president would win. I think K Starr is outclassed when it comes to lawyerly intrigue and sublety by his numerous and apparently well-paid antagonists. Some are even movie producers, with fictional scripts at their fingertips. BC still has not lost control of the press, even though the tide has shifted significantly.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:19 - ID#335190)
Pete @ 21:54
Pete your not alone, many people get called Socialist/pinko/"Whatever", goes with the lay of the land, when a person puts forth a view. That is life on the NET.

When you lurk, you are considered the silent majority, and are all powerful. ( No opinion-No attack---Safety-Comfort )

Before you go. Can you tell me what "Powers that be" means???

Take Care eh!

Bully Beef
(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:20 - ID#260119)
Dear Pete...Way Cool EXIT!
Now...take a Valium drink a coupla beers and dream of 500 an ounce gold by Fri. noon. I like Clinton too. He's got a problem...he gets nervous and gets an intern to polish his helmet.He relaxes and gets the job done.Nobody gets blown up. This is the reason the U.S. is at the high point of the last 30 years.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:24 - ID#432221)
All P.M.s down. Two words...ARTIFICIAL, PAPER...!!!

CBs want you to believe paper is OK !!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:33 - ID#432221)

can't help but think the anomolous behaviour is significant.
Perhaps the CB s manipulating?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:34 - ID#431263)
Gott im Himmel! Water on the moon! Maybe NASA has also found some gold! No wonder gold is a'tanken! Damn conspirators! : )

(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:34 - ID#335190)
Pete @ Communist insurgency 1940 & 1950 British Rule-Imprisonment-Whipping (Kitco only opinions)
March 5, 1998

SVC--BC-MALAYSIA-WORKERS KUALA LUMPUR, March 6 ( Reuters ) - Malaysia, fearing an influx of economic refugees from Indonesia, plans to use a tough security law that allows for detention without trial on anyone bringing in illegal immigrants and may whip the refugees, newspapers said on Friday.

The ISA allows for virtual indefinite imprisonment without trial. It was enacted under British colonial rule to deal with the Communist insurgency in the late 1940s and 1950s.

Police officials on Wednesday suggested caning "syndicate" members who bring in the immigrants and the immigrants themselves.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:38 - ID#342376)
Kitco tensions up, very bullish for gold
Didn't a CB announce sales of Gold right before the October 500 point drop in the DOW? I'm beggining to believe this Conspiracy thing myself. Also, I've noticed when tensions mount on Kitco, gold usually rallys in the following days. So I'm strongly bullish on Gold. Steve Kaplan should put this new analysis in his "Gold Mining Outlook". Also, a Lunar Eclipse on March 12. The Financial Astologers I've read say that could be big trouble for the markets.

Bully Beef
(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:42 - ID#260119)
Lunar eclipse and the Ides of March thing.
These are the things myths are made the one about zero inflation and strong fundamentals.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:42 - ID#348169)
Hi Bart! - Your multiple posts at 19:16 prove that the owner-operator of a site can still have a few aces up their sleeves! I'm sure that no one else has ever been able to post three messages here at the exact same MINUTE! AAR- Thanks for backing up my post to OldGold of earlier today with a comment from today's Gartman Letter ( about the Portugese Banker ) . Doesn't it make sense to you people that some of us have been being plagerized by the mainstream media? I noticed a recent Guru article on vronsky's site that was repeated almost word for word in a subscription newsletter INCLUDING the charts! I think that Bart's message that he will add a copyright symbol to all of our substantial posts should be another reason that when we say our prayers at night we don't forget to mention Bart. However, Bart, I think that you forgot to consult with an expert before deciding on the length that should be copyrighted. I place the cut-off point closer to two hundred. The rest is chaff. I hope that this example is not over 200, although it very well may be! See what I mean!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:44 - ID#431263)
The 120% solution!
DOW up 15% from its Jan.12 low! Annualized this would be 120%+!!!! Does anybody really believe this market is not in the final throes of a generational blowoff?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:47 - ID#335190)
*****BALANCED*****@ Americas Trade Acord....Fast Track/MAI/NAFTA/SDR..DRUG TRADE???
March 5, 1998

U.S. wants "balanced""Americas trade accord

WASHINGTON, March 5 ( Reuters ) - The United States is committed to negotiating a "balanced""free trade deal for the Americas that addresses the issues of labor and the environment responsibly, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said on Thursday.

Global integration has produced healthier economies but has also generated debate in the hemisphere, including from critics who question whether "the benefits of globalization will be shared by the hard-working many and not reserved for the lucky few," she said.

Such critics want to "be sure that profits will come from perspiration and inspiration, not exploitation of workers or the environment""and they deserve a serious response, she said.

The summit must also "restate our commitment to the war against international narcotics trafficking and crime," she said.

John B__A
(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:49 - ID#211105)
Preacher - Sojourn
I also noticed how well Barrick and even Homestake held up today. I suspect that quality gold stocks are the place to be at this point in the cycle. They have the low operating costs and financial capability to grow and acquire good property and still increase profits at $300 per ounce. It would be normal for the gold blue-chips to lead the way out of this gold bear market.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:49 - ID#393224)
G'day Pete. I, for one, have enjoyed your posts and hope we can persuade you to stay. We get a real mix here. Some wish to turn Kitco into a legal and constitutional discussion group. Others grind various axes that have nothing to do with precious metals. Usually they get bored and move elsewhere. Posters who offer some knowledge and/or views about precious metals and markets and do not take themselves too seriously, usually stick around, as they receive much more than they take. Don't go. Cheers, Nick@Web-Terrorists-R-Us.

The Hatt
(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:53 - ID#294232)
That the bottoms are moving higher as gold pulls back. Last week it dropped as low as $290.00 and today $293.00 seems to be the bottom. Sometimes I think we all watch gold much too closely and as a result we suffer from the minute by minute girations. GOLD IS TRENDING HIGHER AND IT WILL DECIDE WHEN IT WANTS TO BREAKOUT! HISTORY TELLS US THAT IT RARELY GIVES ANY WARNING THAT THE TIME TO MOVE IS NEAR,SO LETS ALL TAKE A DEEP BREATH AND BE THANKFUL THAT WE ARE NOT PART OF THE SHEEP HERD THAT IS BEING LEAD TO SLAUGHTER! IWOULD MUCH RATHER BE PATIENTLY WAITING FOR GOLD TO MOVE THAN TO BE HOLDING SOME MUTUAL FUND FULL OF PAPER. WHERE IS THE RISK?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:54 - ID#266105)

(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:56 - ID#431263)
Thar's gold in them thar' moon mountains!
10,000,000 tons of ice on the moon! How's about that Mooney! CNBC just called this the "equivalent of discovering gold"! Perhaps the mother lode really has been discovered on the moon and will now be attached by the US to back up its relenteless stream of paper promises which are already enough to extend to the moon and back 4 1/2 times!! : )

(Thu Mar 05 1998 22:59 - ID#256254)
Pete ( ALL - GOODBY AND GOOD LUCK ) ID#222231:

Pete this is a tough bb. When you post, you have to believe that you are doing the best you can in adding content. You post to learn. You post to generate different views and opinions. You post to get feedback. You post to influence others.

Once you post, you need to set back and read the responses with a cold analytical eye. If you make a small postive impact or learn one little peice of information, you have been successful.

Everyone gets trashed sooner or later on this bb. Sometimes it is just because the tension and frustration is to much for us.

Don't worry about what we think, just focus on what we are learning together.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:00 - ID#28781)
@grant -- no more anomolous than bonds up, stocks down

For one day or days it can happen. Looking at longer time frames the relationship you're referring to is there. How well it is corelated I don't know.

Referring to Martin Pring's book and Gold, one of the tools he uses is to look at a particular index such as the TSE gold and silver index or the Xau index to determine the trend for gold and to watch for a possible reversal.

In early January when gold fell to a new low, below the December low, the TSE Gold index did not confirm the new low. To me this signalled a trend reversal.. Stay tuned.


(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:03 - ID#28781)
@John B__A, that is the order, blue chips, intermediates, finally spec stocks


(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:04 - ID#345268)
@ Hatt

Hatt: "Where is the risk holding gold?"

You may pass some of the best investment opportunities in your life time. Did you read some earlier posts on the depression? Some people were so scared with the real estate debacle that they never bought a house until now! Yet many became rich from real estate.

We have finite lives, and major screw-ups in lost opportunities are hard to quantify, much worse to rectify.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:07 - ID#431263)
Greetings NICK @ C! Wie geht's mate? How's my beloved LIHIR ( Vengold ) doing this morning in the land down under? Saw that it's ADR took a $1.75 hit today in the US? Any word on a Muslim bailout of Suharto? Danke!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:08 - ID#287280)
Good morning, Good Day, Good Evening--that should cover everybody!

WetGold, thank you very much for making the Islamic post.

Aurator, Thanks for the handy calculator!

JTF, Thanks for the thoughtful post regarding the wider implications of the dinar.

When first I met the gold and silver Islamic coins, I had a lovely rush of excitement at the find, and pleasure at the thought that someone meant to bring honest money into the world. But that particular evenings stack of reading quickly brought me back to earth. The dinars existence changes our comfortable world beyond all our imaginings. When one reads of the trade pacts the IDB has established with member countries, for example, one is forced to recognize that they deal in tangible goods, or gold...and that seems to be pretty much it.

In the peculiar way of the world, we congregate in our small cyber village and chat about a piece of vital information that is practically unknown to the rest of our world ( s ) . That is both exhilarating and terrifying. Calm me down somebody, before I think again! {:- )

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:09 - ID#342376)
Bull in paper is slow to die, so is the Bear in Gold
We should all remember that this is the Stongest Bull ever seen, but it appears to be getting close to it's last breath. The Bear in Gold may be close to it's demise but is also putting up a fight to stay alive....Stay tuned. It appears there is a whole lot of dying going on here.....

desert rat
(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:10 - ID#269118)
water on moon
Didn't they teach something in highschool chemistry about a
process called sublimation? If the moon has no atomosphere ie. a
virtual vaccuum, how long could water maintain a solid state?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:10 - ID#210235)
Take two British sovereigns and a long winter's nap. It will look better in the morning, and so will we. Is a commie pinko the worst you've been called on this forum? Doing pretty well, by my estimation.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:12 - ID#335190)
FYI @ Asia Pacific car sales --down 49%
March 5, 1998
Chrysler February international sales fall

AUBURN HILLS, Mich., March 5 ( Reuters ) - Chrysler Corp said Thursday that February light vehicles sales outside of North America fell 11 percent to 15,743 units from 17,732 a year ago.

Sales in Asia-Pacific, hurt by financial uncertainty in that region, were down 49 percent

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:15 - ID#187218)
Add me to the list of enjoying your posts. I would hope you would reconcider your leave and come home. There are posters on here with which I disagree and those to the contrary. I cannot think of any off-hand that I would want to banish. Pete, you are one of those posters that I feel have truly contributed to the overall theme at Kitco. Some months back LGB ( check back ) got hammered big time and he gave his farewell post. He must have longed for the continued mental jousting so much he came back home. His contributions were ( at times ) not appreciated by some but things change day-to-day here ( as U know ) .

You are welcome here at the Kitco home, Pete!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:20 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Computers, Electronics & Software Sector Chart

High Tech Disaster!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:20 - ID#431263)
TO ALL--Li Peng opening up the 9Th session of the Chinese National People's Congress on C-SPAN NOW!!!!!!! VERY INTERESTING! STATE CONTROL ALL THE WAY!!!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:21 - ID#341214)
A.Goose, James
A.Goose: Your 22:59 to Pete is very well put and something we should all read.

James: Can we patch it up? I'm not trying to offend anyone here. I was taking you to task for making such a sensational accusation when there were no facts to back it up. We are all entitled to our own opinion on the many subjects we discuss here but we should use facts, not feelings, to back them up.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:23 - ID#210235)
@odd thoughts
Since hearing of the Dinar, I have that strangest inkling that we will be seeing a new alignment of conservative Christians and Muslims based on hard assets that will include, by virtue of the honesty of the currency, libertarians of all sorts. A whole new alliance just waiting to form. One that I never would have dreamed of only a month ago.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:25 - ID#288399)
Friday's employment report
You guys really think it will be a "bad" number? You have more faith in Uncle Sam than I do. Since Intel/Motorola/Asia bad news is piling up on the markets, I expect some phone calls have been made, some "revisions" instituted for the prior month, and the market will be thrown a softball. Remember the mantra: there is no inflation and IF there were to be any, AG has told us that the slowdown from Asia will give a "healthy" balance.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:25 - ID#335190)
Intel @ Quebec (FYI)
March 5, 1998

SEATTLE, March 5 ( Reuters ) - Microsoft Corp. and Intel Corp. will announce new inventives on Friday aimed at getting software developers to shift their efforts to the high-end "Wintel""platform from rival Unix-based systems.

In another announcement underscoring Intel's commitment to high-end applications, the chip manufacturer said on Thursday it would invest $13.5 million for a 2.2 percent of Discreet Logic Inc. , a Montreal-based company whose software was used to create special effects for movies including "Titanic""and "Independence Day."

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:27 - ID#256254)
Calm me down somebody, before I think again! {:- )

SDRer, relax. They believe in gold, you believe in gold. They have gold, you have gold ( though they have lots and you a little ) . They want the good guys to win, You are a good guy. Now there, that should have you calmed down.

Now tell me, just when is this dangerous paper con game that the United States is running going to go up in smoke ( {;=}}}. Is the currency board in Indonesia going to be the straw to break the paper bank?

Thanks in advance. ( :- )

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:29 - ID#257136)
mozel(your post of 15:12.
Since 1973 I have been well acquainted with innumerable ( sometimes beknighted ) individuals who have in one form or another directly challenged the Federal Reservse Bank's collection agenccy and its adherents.
You know whereof I speak. IRS, FBI, ATF, DEA, CIA, ad nauseum.

This is not for purpose of argument ,lest any other vewer take umbrage and decide to call me to task.
I could recount, ( but for personal reasons I refuse to do so on this forum ) many instances where the confrontation was not pleasant-for either side.
The Waco thing was after the time of which I speak, but the Gordon Kahl murder was not.
I was personally acquainted with Gordon Kahl, Nord Davis, Ardie Mc Brearty and others who have had their "15 minutes" of fame or notoriety.
The founder of the Aryan Nations Church is included in the list.

The reason I am stating this is to give a little credence to the statement following;
Your and Jeil's assessments of the Nation and its Constitution are very close, even though you tend to diverge in your respective personal positions.
Would That I had the ability to speak it as you do.

My emotions tend to become active, due to the way in which I paid my dues in the movement to regain the freedom of the individual from the" corporate state" , "the elitist conspiracy" or whatever you choose to term it.
Most of the goldbugs seem to be able to think for themselves and assess new info as it is available.
I must apologize to those whom I deliberately offended by some of my posts.
I will not apologize for taking umbrage at the ignorance displayed by some, even though their posts indicate superb intelligence.
To ALL: I guess my lashing out verbally is mostly due to exasperation with those who will not hear or heed the facts as history has presented them and as they are being revealed on this forum and throughout the world today.
None are so blind as those who WILL NOT SEE!
I do not have to hope we will live in interesting times. We do!!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:30 - ID#393224)
Golden Cheesehead
G'day mate. With 1/2 hour to go, Lihir is up 3 cents to $1.72. Your ADRs are 10x that ? On my chart Lihir is still in uptrend and has not come back nearly as much as other gold shares. I have been waiting for a bigger correction---it just don't wanna!!! This is a VERY strong company.
PS--careful with that German, mein herr. Mozel is gonna sue your buns off!!!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:32 - ID#287280)
Oh dear, and poor Helmut with an election coming up...
Turkey: PM accuses Kohl on EU policy
By John Barham and Quentin Peel in Ankara

The Turkish prime minister accused Chancellor Helmut Kohl of Germany on
Thursday of blocking his country's hopes of joining the European Union.
Mesut Yilmaz charged the German government with pursuing in eastern
Europe a policy of Lebensraum - Adolf Hitler's policy of aggressive
expansion in the 1930s to create "living space" for the German people.

In an outspoken interview with the Financial Times, Mr Yilmaz rejected
last-minute efforts to persuade him to attend next week's European
conference of prospective members of the EU in London. He denounced the
EU for "discrimination" against Turkey, in leaving his country out of the list of would-be members, and blamed the German government in particular for Turkey's exclusion.

"The Germans continue the same strategy as before," Mr Yilmaz said. "They
believe in Lebensraum. That means the central and eastern European
countries are of strategic importance for Europe and for Germany as their

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:33 - ID#57232)
Cheap goods Tsunami much smaller than we thought! For now, anyway.
6pak: D.A. was apparently right after all -- so far we have not had the cheap goods Tsunami expected. That was the good news. The bad news is -- think of what must be happening to employment at those factories where the cars are made! This is not just currency deflation, this is depression -- unless the effects are temporary.

Regardless, I do not think we have heard the last of this. There may very well come a day when all of those low-cost factories start up again - later when the money starts flowing. That day will not be pleasant for us, I think.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:34 - ID#431263)
Li Peng's speech sounds a whole lot like Clinton's State of the Union! JOBS! EDUCATION! SOCIAL ENGINEERING! War on drugs, thugs, pollution and pornography! Guarantee the basic needs of laid-off workers, disabled and retirees! A minimum standard of living for all indigent people in city and countryside! New environmental standards must be developed and implemented! Must encourage ethnic minorities and oppose any acts to split Chinese societal unity! If he'd have grown up in Hope, AR he could've run for president here in the US! And won! Ain't that a thought! : )

John B__A
(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:40 - ID#211105)
Nice charts - thank you

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:43 - ID#57232)
Good point! How could there be free ice on the moon?
desert rat: I asked myself the same question. What is even more puzzling is that 'underground' individuals claiming to know some of NASA's secrets mentioned ice on the moon over a year ago. The ice on the moon may be on the perpetually cold side, and covered by a layer of debris that might prevent sublimation by allowing a relatively high vapor pressure.

Another question however, is how the ice got there in the first place -- certainly not by comet collisions with the moon. And, why do we find about this now, after so many years? I suspect that NASA knows far more about the moon than we are being told. How about mars?

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:44 - ID#17155)
**** Li Peng's speech sounds a whole lot like Clinton's State of the Union! JOBS! EDUCATION! SOCIAL ENGINEERING! War on drugs, thugs, pollution and pornography! Guarantee the basic needs of laid-off workers, disabled and retirees! ****

Yes, yes!!! But does Li Peng screw Girl-Scouts or trips on his shorts during his "official" acts????

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:49 - ID#345268)
Who called Pete a "communist"? He owes him an apology.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:53 - ID#393224)
G'day. IMHO NASA is pumping for more money for another moon trip. Have to justify it somehow. "We've struck water!" Good excuse. Next thing you know they'll find gold in some of those moon rocks.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:53 - ID#22956)
the breakout...oh my.
remember just about a week ago when I mentioned a pennant formation in the US$ and we were getting ready for a breakout. And it was also forming in the BP and the Mark. Remember? Well......
go to dollar index, BP, and D-Mark ( daily ) ......two words come to mind.

h M!

( Cha-Ching! ) ....$$$$$$$ watch the follow thru, for it will surely be.

eldo, why is HO ready. I am watching it. I want to believe, perhaps you can enlighten me. Broker is standing by. Thanks.

go silver...hi ho.

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:53 - ID#431263)
Macao and Taiwan an inviolable part of the Chinese motherland and must be peacefully reunited with the motherland. Taiwan's future is with the Chinese motherland! Ties with Taiwan must be strenthened! Army must be strengthened, supported and reduction of 500,000 implemented. Peace and Development are the watchwords of the day. Multipolarity increasing among developed nations. Sino-US relations are entering a new era of bilateral cooperation while putting aside differences! Closer ties with Russia and Japan. Sino-ASEAN ties to be strengthened! Solidarity with Asia, Africa and Latin America to be encouraged and pursued through economics. Closer cooperation with UN! Opposed to any intereference in Chinese internal affairs by outsiders! Opposed to use or threatened use of force against others. Promoting the New World Order of World Peace and Development for all! One Nation--Two systems concept must be expanded to include all of China!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:58 - ID#287280)
Australia: BHP falls 3% as Moody's reviews rating

Friday, March 6, 1998
By Gwen Robinson in Sydney

Shares in Broken Hill Proprietary, Australia's largest resources group, slid 3.3 per cent yesterday to A$15 as the Australian stock market digested Wednesday's resignation of John Prescott, BHP chief executive.

BHP also suffered yesterday from an announcement by Moody's Investor
Services, the US credit rating agency, that it had placed the group's short-term debt ratings under review for a possible downgrade.

In addition, BHP said it would close temporarily its Coloso copper
concentrate leach plant at its Escondida copper mine in Chile from May
because of continued depression in prices. Investors initially welcomed Mr Prescott's decision to leave, driving BHP's shares up 8 per cent to A$15.51 on Wednesday.

Mr Prescott's departure was seen as a triumph for institutional shareholders, who have been pressing for more than a year for a change in the group's management following a string of poor earnings, questionable investment decisions and asset write-downs.

A.Goose@Pete's.Place That post was a lovely bit of truth telling!
Also, thanks for the "calm-down"..I needed that! {:- )

Shlomo.They.Cook.The.Books I suspect you are right!

(Thu Mar 05 1998 23:59 - ID#57232)
Don't give up too quickly
Pete: I will miss you too! You should grit your teeth and dig in for a while before you throw in the towel. The Kitco world is a bit harsh at times -- on some days everything flows smoothly -- on other days fireworks only. What I do is simply stop posting to individuals, or stop posting altogether for a while when things get too hot for my liking. Also -- it is best not to focus too much on a few controversial topics such as religion, politics, and economics -- as I found out -- just like you! You must allow for the time factor -- sometimes the topic you wish to discuss is better discussed at another time with another group!

With regard to the conspiracy bit, I remember going off the 'deep end' with revelations about gold and the LBMA, months ago. It took me a while to realize that there probably was no organized conspiracy, and that it really did not matter anyway. It is hard to explain that -- but perhaps the best way is to say that is that world-wide conspiracies have a tendency of not surviving very long, due to basic characteristics of human nature. It is hard to make diverse groups of individuals to work closely together for any length of time -- look at the United Nations!