Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 00:08 - ID#339212)
@ aurator

What is New Zealand's GDP in $US ?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 00:14 - ID#255284)
Some Fundamentals to chew on ((as Bill said to Mon))


When the historic Earnings ratios venture above 8, purchasing shares becomes a belief in
( a ) in earnings growth. Rapid earnings growth can be substantiated & legitimated in several ways, by a revolutionary product, by a significant enhancement to an existing product ( efficiency ) , by rapid market growth, amongst others. or
( b ) capital share value ( the last mug principle )

The concern, in my mind, is how the P/E is legitimated, how is it justified? In my anecdote, is was justified by pointing at the Japanese bubble. How is it justified on your shores?

My concern for the high tech stocks is simply that they were ( mostly ) not around a decade ago. And, rather like the explosive number of car manufacturers ( & peripheral developers ) in the first two decades of this century, very few of these high tech companies are going to be around in a few years, let alone 30 or 40 as the P/E would suggest a paper holder believes necessary for earning to justify share purchase.

One thing that amazes me, is that the inferior MS Windows has apparently become a standard, the reaction against MS when the next wave sweeps over the Information game will, I believe relegate MS to history, unlamented.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 00:16 - ID#31868)
If gold and silver, are meaningless because the world has changed, how come those two words are popping up all over the place in print when just a few short months ago, you saw virtually nothing.

When Americans figures out that paper is worthless, whoa Nellie, there goes the game. I say we are very close to putting that saddle on Nellie.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 00:18 - ID#316193)
Here's Steve And The New Blizard

(Sat Mar 07 1998 00:19 - ID#335190)
USofA Consumer Credit @ $1.24 Trillion-before January seasonal adjustment
March 6, 1998
Consumer credit growth slows in January

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - U.S. consumer installment credit growth slowed in January, as the expansion of new-car loans eased from an aggressive pace in December, the Federal Reserve Board said Friday.

Total consumer credit rose by a slower-than-expected $2.9 billion, or at a 2.8 percent annual rate, in January, down from a December jump of $4.8 billion, which was at a 4.7 percent rate, the Federal Reserve said.

The overall growth in consumer credit in the past two months was led by automobile and revolving credit, but was partially offset by declines in other credit, the Fed said.

The growth of auto credit outstanding slowed to $2.4 billion, or a 6.8 percent annual rate, in January from a $6.7 billion rise, or a 19.6 percent rate, in December, when auto dealers were aggressively discounting new cars to clear off their lots to make way for 1998 models.

Credit card debt, also called revolving credit, rose $2.7 billion in January, a 6.1 percent annual growth rate, outpacing its December gain of $1 billion, or a 2.3 percent rate, the Fed said.

The catch-all catagory called "other credit," which includes consumer bank loans for things like mobile homes, boats or higher education, but not real estate, declined for the third consecutive month, the Fed said.

This category of debt fell $2.2 billion, or at a 9.2 percent rate, in January after falling $3 billion, or a 12 percent annual rate in December, it said.

In November, overall consumer debt fell $5 billion, a 4.8 percent annual rate of decline. It was the first decline in monthly consumer credit since May 1993, the Fed said.

Before seasonal adjustment, total outstanding consumer credit in January was $1.248 trillion.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 00:26 - ID#339212)
@ aurator

The best product doesn't always win. You are right in mentioning MS Windows vs Mac. I would also add VHS and Beta. It is all a marketing issue, but sometimes when a market is established it is hard to displace.

Another example is POWER PC ( Performance Optimization With Enhanced Risk ) and Intel's Pentium. I am sure you know that the POWER PCs now in Macs are manufactured by Motorola. The architecture, however, of the POWER PC was designed by IBM and was intended for IBM mainframes. This is a more superior product to the Pentium, but it was not marketed right and it failed.

I agree with you that some consolidation / merging will be done in hi-techs, primarily in the Networking field. In the semiconductor and communication area, Motorola will stay a leader.

P/Es of 8 I never remember on these hi-tech companies. I will take my chances and buy MOT when P/E is 15.

John B__A
(Sat Mar 07 1998 00:28 - ID#211105)
Y2K is a computer programming problem - a programming bug or series of like "bugs" Basically, it was caused by lazy programmers decades ago who didn't realize or think that the program they wrote would still be used when the year 2000 rolled around. It was easier for them to define a "year" in their computer program as only having two decimal digits, e.g. 60, 61 instead of allowing for four digits, 1960, 1961 etc. Obviously when the year 2000 rolls around, their program will calculate the year as 00 or who knows what instead of the year 2000.

Now this is a big deal for organizations ( such as some federal government agencies ) who are still using 1960 vintage computers and the original programs that were written for them. It will take a lot of effort for them to come in on weekends and test these programs to find all instances of this "bug"

Another and better solution for many is to magnify the problem so that Congress ( in the case of government agencies ) , out of fear, will give them the funding to invest in new computers and updated programming packages. Frankly this is the best excuse they have ever had to squeeze sufficient new budget to upgrade their computing facilities.

These "bugs" are being fixed or replaced with new programming every day. Mr. Highrise, however big you may think the problem is, it is getting smaller every day. As you so forcefully pointed out, none of those other problems are getting any smaller.

Perhaps we should focus on just what could pull our gold and silver investments out of the muck - because the Y2K will not.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 00:34 - ID#431263)
Speaking of good products, I still have a 1983 Toshiba Beta-Hi-FI VCR and use it every day to tape CNBC for replay. It has never failed me and looks as good as the day I bought it 15 years ago Jan.15! The Japanese may not know how to spend money, but they sure know how to make products
that last and last and last! Maybe that's why they have a trade surplus with the US! My Goldstar ( Korean ) VHS VCR failed after only 18 months! End of story!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 00:36 - ID#393224)
Antipodean Contrarian Newsletter
-----------------The Antipodean Contrarian Newsletter------------------

Free Issue #3
Nickaurator Enterprises 1998

Subscriptions: $10 001 per annum ( Put that in your pipe--Veneroso! )
Note: Subscribers will receive their copy one hour before it is posted free on Kitco.

Stochastic indicators for gold crossed the cyclical gyration line this week in conjunction with decreasing on-balance volume and a depressed coppock indicator. In addition the 7 year cycle is now coincident with the 54 year cycle while the moon is in the seventh house. This has triggered a major sell signal for gold and all gold-related investments. We strongly advise all subscribers to immediately sell all gold futures, options, straddles, twaddles, shares, coins, bars, wafers and teeth.

It is our recommendation that ALL proceeds be put into physical PORK BELLIES. Do NOT buy futures as you do not want paper pork. Pork bellies have a long history as the ultimate hedge against deflation and depression. In the coming crash and ensuing depression there will be soup kitchens opening everywhere. Bacon will then be in short supply and should rise dramatically in price. Derivative Bellies will quickly be in default as farmers and packing houses who have sold forward scramble for the dwindling Belly supply.

It is important that you locate suitable freezer storage facilities in advance of your physical purchase as you don't want pig carcasses hanging all over your house. We recommend a 300 year supply of bacon to insure your loved ones against the coming hard times. The beauty of this
position is that if you have mistimed your purchase, you can then EAT your investment. Try doing THAT with gold.

All the usual caveats apply. Nickaurator enterprises will not be held responsible for smelly bellies in case of electrical failure. It is further recommended that residents of Auckland, N.Z. buy live sheep, as no electricity is required for this investment.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 00:42 - ID#339212)

That is what I said in my post. BETA WAS BETTER, but VHS displaced it because BETA was not marketed right.

It is all an issue of marketing. People no longer buy value, they buy perception.

APPLE computers and DOS based junk is another example. NIKE $120 Air shoes vs. $60 of all other brands. Do you think Marathoners run on NIKES? No sir, primarily those shoes are worn by non-runners.

John B__A
(Sat Mar 07 1998 00:44 - ID#211105)
Nick - Very Funny
I needed a good laugh. Your post deserves a copyright. Another thing you can't eat is your house - unless you live in the "House of Pancakes"

(Sat Mar 07 1998 00:52 - ID#255284)
Ad- Ver---Tisement


NZ GDP is close as needed to $NZ100 billion, $US58 billion. What's that, about the same as Dakron Ohio?

Antipodean Contrarian Newsletter Issue #3 is currently being read by 30,000 investors per day from 186 countries and two UFOs according to independant Bald-Eagle Market Research statistics.

Watch out for Issue #4 ...out in two shakes of a lamb's tail...or maybe in a day or two...

(Sat Mar 07 1998 00:56 - ID#255151)
Investment Strategy

Nick of Canberra--I faxed a note to my broker advising him to sell all my Gold positions and buy Pork Bellies. My 10,001 is in the mail. Go Pork!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 00:59 - ID#339212)
@ aurator

New Zealand's GDP of US $58 billion = 2X Motorola's sales ( $30 billion sales each year ) .

But the important thing is NZ's GDP per capita. That is what really counts.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 00:59 - ID#373403)
Community Service
I just spent the last hour promoting gold in the Yahoo chat rooms.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:04 - ID#339212)
@ theMissingLink

If the price of gold is up on Monday, we will Know what caused it !

By the way, I visited your web page sometime ago and I found it very informative. You may want to show your web's site address again for our new viewers or those who missed it.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:07 - ID#255151)

Well done, sir! Go Gold!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:09 - ID#269245)
themissinglink and all
You have truly done a great service to the Yahooites, and to us. Spread the word, make people ask questions about their world. Teach and trade the physical. BTW, thanks for the URL's. Also, since things are quiet, could someone tell me what "IMHO" is - please? - c

(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:12 - ID#339212)


(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:13 - ID#255284)

Gee, I thought you asked for GDP. Okay, well divide the $US 58 bill by 58,2 mill ( if you want to include the sheep ) or by 3.2 mill if you're gonna eat the sheep.

All this talk of food, I'm too hungry to think straight let alone calculate.

Ibn Al Crus'ti
How goes your wandering? May you keep safe between the Oases.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:14 - ID#255151)

John Disney- 1.Traveller 2.The Curtis Institute 3.A songwriter. Wrote "I Wonder as I Wander". 4. A composer. Wrote a variation on Bach's Goldberg Variations.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:16 - ID#269245)
Myrmidon - and finally, every post I've ever read here makes sense!
THANK YOU! Obviously, this is an acronym which I should use more often, IMHO.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:18 - ID#339212)
@ aurator

Life must be good in NZ. It works out to US $18,125 per head ( $58 billion GDP / 3.2 million population ) . Thanks my friend.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:20 - ID#348169)
@ NickC and Auric
NickC and Auric - Have either one of you been communicating with EB lately? I just e-mailed him yesterday that it seems that pork bellies may soon sizzle ( in North America At Any Rate -AAR ) as the price is low and summer is around the corner! Does it go good with Fosters?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:23 - ID#348169)
IMHO was banned by mutual consent of all present on this site just about exactly one month ago. Its in the records. Check back. IMNSVHO AAR

(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:26 - ID#339212)
@ Mooney

Ah, now you are going to confuse clone and myself. What is AAR?

Clone IMNSVHO = in my not so very humble opinion.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:28 - ID#255284)
GDP/capita URLS anyone??
I wonder if you would return the favour and do the same calcns for --- ( I beg pardon, I do not know where you're from )

Si, la dolce vita.

I sometimes think I live the life of Riley.


(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:28 - ID#348169)
Its Dark on this FAR DARK side of the earth and My eyes won't even hold up the toothpicks anymore!
So Goodnight Oz And Kiwi And Polarbear and Jin and Glenn - wherever you might be!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:29 - ID#269245)
Mooney, IMHO
Very well, I take it back!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:33 - ID#348169)
It's my own invention and I ceaselessly promote it for use by all internet groupies. Re-Read my 1:20 carefully and all will become clearer.
SMOAO! Stephen Mooney Over And Out!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:36 - ID#339212)
@ aurator

I am in Arizona USA, a state of many abandoned gold and silver mines.
Now, I would like to do it for the US but I don't have the GDP number at hand. If you assume the average NZ household be 2.2 persons ( as in US ) ,
the GDP per household in NZ is 2.2 X $18,125 = $40,000. Not bad.

And I am sure you don't have all the giveaway programs the US has for the needy, the military and the rest of the world!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:39 - ID#266105)

'Nuf zed ( smiley thingy ) . Maybe out to some music here.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:53 - ID#255151)


(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:53 - ID#393224)
Go Pork!!
G'day Mooney.
Have never emailed EB. There is a time for all investments and there is an investment for all times--PORK BELLIES. And that's no hogwash, mate!!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:54 - ID#288140)
Mughal Dynasty
Twice each year at his solar and lunar birthdays the emperor was weighed against gold, and silver and jewelry and other precious things in the treasury, and for each thing, its value was distributed among the needy.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 01:56 - ID#255151)

G'day! Re EB--I am not in contact with him. I do, however, look forward to the time that he turns all out bullish on Gold!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 02:00 - ID#269245)
Pork Bellies, March delivery: 40.25 down 1.48 cents/lb
Buy at the dips! This is the deal of the century!! - c

(Sat Mar 07 1998 02:06 - ID#339212)
@ sam, @ clone

Sam, In which nation this dynasty occured?

Clone, In which country are you?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 02:19 - ID#339212)
@ all

Goodnight, at 12:25 local time I turn into a pumpkin.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 02:21 - ID#401460)
John B__A

Thanks for your reply.

Perhaps we should focus on just what could pull our gold and silver investments out of the muck - because the Y2K will not.

I posted the following the other evening. I will post it again in responce to your suggestion.

Some things we all should remember:

The % of the population between the ages of 46 and 56 is massive.

These same people have driven all markets for the last 50+ years.

They had a lot to do with Golds last big surge - they still have the rings, coins, and chains in their lock boxes.

They new the value of Gold then and will be quick to recognize the value in the future.

Just as the Dow has been driven to new heights by these people, Gold and Gold mining shares will be driven upward as they rotate out of the Dow.

The laws of supply and demand will rule as never before. There is a finite amount of Gold and Gold mining shares.

If just a small % of this Age group try to buy Gold the markets will be overwhelmed by the demand.

Even the cheap ECO, RYO, TVX, stocks will be in high demand. They will appreciate at multiples that boggle the imagination.

The past few months have shown that the markets are churning and investors are rotating from one type of stock to another.

It wont matter if only a small percentage are able to rotate into Gold and Gold mining shares, we are talking about millions trying to buy millions of shares and ounces that dont exist.

The Gold market is already depressed, therefore I am not sure it will collapse when the Dow retreats again. Investment dollars have always eventually sought out the best value and this time will be no different.

There are many clouds on the horizon which could start the rotation into Gold, it is just a matter of time now.


(Sat Mar 07 1998 02:29 - ID#290271)
Flyin' By about that gold market? Platinum is in quite the trading range as well. Hi to all my old Kitco buddies!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 02:54 - ID#255151)

G'day!--Kitco has been pretty good in the last few weeks, eh? I think we're at the peak of Dollar strength and Gold weakness. Can't say how long we'll linger here though. My guess remains $600 in 2000.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 02:59 - ID#401460)
The Other Shoe?

I would think this is worth posting in it's entirety.
And not a lot of posters tonight.

Saturday March 7, 2:38 am Eastern Time

Asian financial crisis looms over China

By Benjamin Kang Lim

BEIJING, March 7 ( Reuters ) - Chinese President Jiang Zemin has warned that the negative impact
of the Asian financial crisis on China's economy should not be underestimated, the China Daily
said on Saturday.

China has remained largely unscathed from the crisis, but the regional financial turmoil was
expected to take its toll on the world's most populous nation this year.

Central bank governor Dai Xianglong told a news conference on Saturday the crisis would slow
the growth of China's foreign exchange reserves, exports and use of foreign capital.

Jiang, who also holds the top jobs in China's Communist Party and the military, told a
parliamentary group discussion on Friday that the Asian financial crisis has ``lasted longer than
expected,'' the newspaper said.

``China has not been seriously affected,'' Jiang said. ``But we should have a correct understanding
of the situation. We should not underestimate its negative impact on our economy.''

``We should see both its challenges for our economic development and opportunities it may bring
us,'' the newspaper quoted Jiang as saying. He did not elaborate.

``We should be confident that we can fend off the crisis, consolidate the current good situation at
home and seek further development as long as we follow the principles decided by the central
authorities,'' Jiang said.

Dai, governor of the People's Bank [Nasdaq:PBCT - news] of China, said China's foreign
exchange reserves would grow at a slower rate this year because of the crisis.

China's reserves stood at $139.9 billion at the end of 1997, representing an increase of $34.9
billion on a year earlier. It was $140.3 billion at the end of February.

Weaker currencies in Southeast Asia were expected to cut into China's exports and foreign
investment, but Chinese leaders have pledged not to devalue the local currency.

Dai said he was ``not overly optimistic'' about exports this year but that 8-10 percent growth was
``entirely achievable.''

China's exports grew a whopping 20.9 percent in 1997.

The governor said China was expected to register a slight trade surplus or balanced foreign trade
in 1998.

China registered a surplus of $40.3 billion in 1997 on exports of $182.7 billion and imports of
$142.4 billion.

Dai said direct foreign investment ( FDI ) would fall but would be at least $30 billion. China's FDI
rose 8.5 percent to $45.3 billion in 1997.

Wary of social unrest, President Jiang said the government should look after workers laid off from
ailing state-owned enterprises.

Millions were expected to be out of a job after the Communist Party endorsed at a pivotal congress
last September Jiang's bold plan to overhaul the lumbering state sector through mergers, stock
sales and bankruptcies.

Jiang called for re-employment programmes to provide jobs for laid-off workers, the newspaper

``Re-employment programmes have a direct bearing on the success or failure of state enterprise
reform and must be put on the agenda of party committees and governments at all levels,'' Jiang

``Strenuous efforts should be made to develop collective, self-employed and private businesses
and support medium and small enterprises so that they can provide more jobs,'' he said.

Jiang cautioned against state enterprises laying off both husband and wife, the newspaper said.

He said China's top priority was to boost the economy and ensure that development was fast and
healthy, it said without giving further details.

Good Night All


(Sat Mar 07 1998 03:09 - ID#330175)
Late night out with Eddie at the hockey game---casino
Didn't come back empty-handed~~~~~but GOLD!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 03:30 - ID#257148)
Hey Ted
on its way

(Sat Mar 07 1998 03:40 - ID#286279)
Today we saw the exhibit King of the World, A Mughal Manuscript from the Royal Library, Windsor Castle at Los Angeles County Museum of Art. Beautiful! Astounding detail. Looked to me like gilt designs on all the backing pages. Take your own binocular magnifier, that focuses at about eight or nine inches, the kind that jewelers and machinists use. The exhibit will travel to Kimbell Art Museum, Ft. Worth May 31 - Aug. 23 and Indianapolis Museum of Art, Indianapolis, Sept. 6 - Nov. 29, 1998. After that the curators at Windsor Castle will rebind the illustrations and manuscript together, which means that nobody except select art historians and other scholars will ever see them again.

The Mughals were descended from both Turkic and Mongol forbears in Central Asia. Mughal Dynasty 1526-1858. The exhibit is of illustrations from Padshahnama Chronicle of the King of the World Akbars grandson, Shah-Jahan who ruled 1628-58 The volume exhibited is official history of Shah-Jahans first ten years as Emperor. The best I can remember from a map at the exhibit was that Mughal Dynasty at that time occupied what is now most of northern India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, maybe some other surrounding areas as well.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 03:45 - ID#255151)

I will make a point to see it when it comes to Indianapolis. Will give a report to Kitco.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 03:46 - ID#257148)
random computer musings
Bbrief sagacities thanks to






right baldy?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 03:52 - ID#153102)
Confusion is the vanguard of destruction.
What hardly of the governed in America grasp, but which the governors all know perfectly well, is that international law, the martial law of nations that might makes right, not the Constitution, is the refuge for legitimacy for the government de facto. There is no domestic sovereign legitimacy. The USG does not serve the Trans National corporations. They serve it and its goals of concealing its de jure illigetimacy with international legalities.

And so it is the author of confusion, having the purpose of dividing the people and clouding their understanding. This is something strange and new in history, I think, that a government should wage covert war on its own citizens. The mass failure of identity formation which has been noted is not an accident. It is a product of propaganda war by a government on its own governed. It is the result of deliberate policies, programs, and indoctrination designed to diminish the self-respect and self-esteem and sense of identity of the group of people who emigrated to, founded, and defended the new nation established on this continent. It is a strange, perhaps unique instance in history, of a government willing to destroy, while claiming to save, a nation to preserve itself. A US Army officer, when questioned about the prupose served by smashing a village in South Vietnam, simply replied, "It was necessary to destroy it in order to save it." It is a fitting epitaph, I think, for the federals to inscribe on America's tombstone.

Gold has many advantages and strengths over confederate money. Save it.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 04:06 - ID#257148)
Free Speach--
In the gathering darkness..

"Bell, book and candle shall not drive me back, When gold and silver becks me to come on."
Shakespeare King John

"In the gloom, the gold gathers the light against it. " Ezra Pound 1886-1972 Draft of XXX Cantos

I am no student of history ( dreaming SF dreams instead ) but I believe the situation you describe with your gobmint vs the people is similar to pre-Jacobean Revolution of 17thC England, and Pre French revolution of 18th C. Probably just before any public uprising.
JIN's comments yesterday were chilling. If Indonesian refugees are braving the straights of Malucca and hoping to land on Malaysian mainland, it does not bode well for the archipalego, the region, nor the world.

The people have much wisdom. Sometimes the leaders forget this. Unremembering, the leaders will lose their heads, in time.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 04:11 - ID#153102)
What hardly any of the governed grasp
Why Americans lack self-esteem and are despised for it.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 04:19 - ID#153102)
The historical parallels you put forth have similarity. But, were those governments covertly at war with the very nation and founding ideals which they were publicly sworn to serve ?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 04:23 - ID#153102)
You have a mighty library in your mind.
And the gift of excellence in selection from superior reach and grasp.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 04:34 - ID#257148)
Land of the Free? Ha Ha Ha---(:-(
You are right. My examples were shadows only compared to the situation as I begin better to understand it from you and others and kitco.
Out of these popular revolutions, eventually, your constitution arose phoenix-like from the ashes. Your nation, built: upon the freedom of its citizens from Sovereign oppression, upon the democratic ideal of No Taxation without Representation, upon the right of a citizen to defend self from Gobmint oppression seems, to this outsider, to be a poor shell of its once dynamic productive industrial leadership.

That it has no moral leadership must be taken for granted.

I saw your reference to my Tx citizenship last night. I confess I felt a chill down my spine when I thought of the tentacles of your gobmint daring to extend down here.

But hasn't it done so already in Vietnam? in Salvadore? Cuba? Iraq? And a dozen covert little operations? Rumours abound in NZ that one of our PMs was offed by your spooks. just rumours.

Someone should call those dogs home.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 04:47 - ID#153102)
These biting dogs have no home; they are interlopers in every place.
The New Paradigm Nation of Lincoln and FDR: Land of the Fee, Home of the White Slave.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 04:53 - ID#153102)
You know about Echelon, don't you ?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 04:59 - ID#257148)

(Sat Mar 07 1998 05:06 - ID#33650)
@ Chas / illuminati protocols @Mooney thanx
the original ( ? ) Protocols can be read at

(Sat Mar 07 1998 05:16 - ID#153102)
Actually, the cause of the American War of Independence was imposition of martial law on a people who believed they were born to the rights of British subjects. Taxes and policies forcing Americans to subsidize the English tea trade and slave trade were levied by Parliament. Americans petitioned the King as loyal subjects for his protection from Parliament where they had no reperesentation. Instead of upholding their rights before Parliament, the King brought admiralty law to the colonies, leaving his governors as Vice-Admirals to enforce it for collection of taxes and customs in derogation of the common law.

When the dust settled, the new form of government in every state was a republic established to secure the rights of each individual equally as in the common law.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 05:17 - ID#257148)
Oh that this too, too solid flesh would melt, fade and resolve itself into oblivion

"Though this be madness, yet there be method in't."

Could well describe the illuminati. Look rather to care for and protect those you love rather than waste time with book and candle when illuminati is the goal.

cave carpem: quotes from memory.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 05:20 - ID#33650)
@ worried house owners /rising interest rates
driven by crsh scenarios ( deflating house prices and high debt with soaring interest rates ) I have contacted my bank in Germany. They offer now to me and you what when I first learned about it in 1984 was a prime deal for top corporations: interest rate swaps.
Present real estae rates in Germany are at an all-time or long-time low with 5% for ten years fixed. I have to rollover a certain amount in Oct 1999 and an upturn in rates would wipe me out if the crash occurred and no more legal work for High Tech Cos would be needed. Now my Bank offers me to fix present rates at no cost !! Two conditions: 1 Mio DEM min and no retreat. If no crash occurs I'm happy to pay the interest. If the crash occurs my swap partner probably will pay the price.
Go Gold and: GOLD GO !! Verflixt, move your bl...... ar..

(Sat Mar 07 1998 05:20 - ID#257148)
much of that i recall, tho could not express so well. Now I understand your references to Admiralty that previously defeated me, many thanks.What of Echelon?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 05:28 - ID#257148)
ohh duhh
I can be v thick
The Echelons were the Navy wallahs empowered by Admiralty to collect and raise taxes?

Time for ANOTHER tea party?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 05:32 - ID#257148)
what is the spread between Mortgage Interest Rate and T-bond equivalent? Cos its the spread that's important.
My grandfather used to talk of 1.75% and less interest when inflation was 1.5%

(Sat Mar 07 1998 05:41 - ID#33650)
@Auratorius Illuminatus
It is good to read the real wording of what gave me my name.

Thanx !

Somebody had mentioned kitcoites sentiments going with the market. Thursday was depressed which caused ( ?! ) Friday to move up. Saturday is mildly optimistic or split, which will cause Monday to be a No Show ( ? )

Has anybody ever checked this relation here ? Could be better short term indicator than T.S. Eliot's Olio Waste or Dante's Peak Fibonacci Infernale Furioso. But my preferred Medium Term Tool remains the 'Antipodeon' ( or Antilopean ?, Antistochiast ? ... )

Bart: Help, is there a search tool for the Kitco posts by key words, such as

Pork Belly-Up, AG Limit-up, BC Trousers-down ?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 05:44 - ID#33650)
@Aurator: Spread Mortgage Rate vs. German Ten Year Bond
I will have to check this on Monday

(Sat Mar 07 1998 05:46 - ID#257148)
A child. A new life. More precious by far than gold
Leland thanks

Steve / Nathan

What a sweet gold world you got in front of you

(Sat Mar 07 1998 06:06 - ID#153102)
@aurator Echelon: the joke's on ...

(Sat Mar 07 1998 06:15 - ID#257148)
The Bard, aka the man from Stratford if you think Shakespeare is merely legend..

The devil hath power to assume a pleasing shape.

Rich gifts wax poor when givers prove unkind.

Our wills and fates do so contrary run
That our devices still are overthrown.
But wait, there's more
Neither a borrower nor a lender be;
For loan oft loses both itself and friend,
And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.
This above all: to thine own self be true,
And it must follow, as the night the day,
Thou canst not then be false to any man.

Almost got this right ( is*be )
Though this be madness, yet there is method in 't.

some quotes

for the text

One amazing search engine in English. How's it rate in German?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 06:27 - ID#257148)
After midnight. jj cale.......
Tip o' the Hat to you for linking to Nicky Hager. He has been prominent for 20+ years exposing these listening stations. I am scrambling through this glow-worm cave of memory for a story that needs to be told at kitco. One man's heroic action or a lunatic hell-bent on suicide. I shall repair to try remember the details and post later.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 06:33 - ID#248180)
He's Back , on Kitco's Gold Discussion, Bars & Stocks
Date: Fri Mar 06 1998 05:33

The moment is not long from happening. Those who matter are ready to collect their dues. I will post again in 24 hours.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 07:21 - ID#347457)
@John B on Y2K
Well, now youve done it John B. with your post on 00:28. So many times I said I wont discuss Y2K on this forum but your post deserves some reply. You totally misunderstand the issue and its origin. It was not "lazy" programmers, it was available hardware resources and system performance which forced the use of two digit years. Do you know that cost of storage was 1,000 times higher some 25 years ago and iven if you had money you could not buy it - technology was not there? But thats not important.

It will take a lot of effort on weekends? Oh boy, I work with lot of major companies and federal agencies and many of their DP staff dont do much of anything else BUT Y2K every day ( not on the weekends ) for the rest of this century.

Better solution through updated programming packages? Yeah, many organizations are in process of doing that, many of them are not able to "upgrade" on time. Let me guess, you must be from small client/server PC or unix based computing environment. Upgrading PC is a bit different from upgrading enterprise computing environment with mixture of all platforms and most of it sitting on mainframes running 7x24 operation ( meaning nonstop 24 hours a day ) .

By the way, in every organizations I go through, "new upgraded" applications are one way or the other "infected" by Y2K problem. Its not only "old stuff developed by lazy programmers". Just watch Bill Gates and MS. Some 8 months ago they issued a strong statement "MS does not have any problem, its just them old mainframes". 4 month ago statements for a technical crowd "oh well some of our older stuff may have some problem, not a big deal". One month ago "we realize a serious nature of Y2K issue, doing a detailed analysis of our software correcting it and setting up our Y2K web page in March 98 where we will post all information about MS product Y2K behavior or misbehavior". These are not direct quotes ( I am lazy to search for dirrect refferences" but that is a jest of MS statements, approach, and its timing.

Yes, I was there when the problem was created. Yes, I was there developing software and managing DBMS software companies and companies providing software solutions to major clients. Yes, I am there today trying to help companies to correct Y2K problems. If you just observe the issue from the side, dont make any strong statements "how easy it is to solve the problem created by lazy programmers in the past. "

Sorry for the long rant, had to get it off my chest. BTW, yes, it will impact financial markets!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 07:55 - ID#341189)
Fears in Washington over Indonesian blowup

(Sat Mar 07 1998 08:10 - ID#57232)
Upover to Downunder -- Monitoring devices
aurator,mozel: Great to see you and mozel corresponding. I think your backgrounds and interests overlap -- legal training both? I have a practical question to both you and mozel regarding that listening post, which undoubtedly concentrates on transmissions that are transmitted digitally through the atmosphere. Could a gigahertz freguency - level monitoring device be able to collect all raw data at all times on the Internet? I find that doubtful, given the sheer volume of information on the web -- ie so many terrabytes per second flowing back and forth.

The whole idea of the internet is distributed processing, so how could any single processor ( almost by definition ) have all of the internet data, even if it was massively parallel. I wonder, just how many satellite-based core internet links are there? My guess is that the listeners have a trigger device of some kind so that they only store data of interest, something like the way the IRS works -- certain key words are used as triggers. That might work, though the computing power needed is still staggering. Just wait two more years when internet traffic has quadrupled.

Since we are talking about confidentiality, etc. I have one other comment. I sent a check for about $1000 out of the USA about 6 months ago. I have sent small checks out before over the last ten years. But --- this time, when it was returned to me, it had a narrow yellow stripe printed on the back. First time I have ever seen this.

Comments from you or mozel? I think all money transactions in the US leaving the country are being monitored, no matter what their size --despite the offical threshold of $3000 ( not $10,000 ) . I find this staggering when I consider the cost of such a monitoring system. Thoughts from the legal eagles?

I enjoyed your quoting of Hamlet to hamlet.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 08:14 - ID#26793)
China to reduce bank reserve requirements. (Sort of a devaluation?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 08:24 - ID#26793)
Mexican banking system prepares for financial chaos. Deposit insurance to be cut.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 08:32 - ID#57232)
IMF in the hot seat in Indonesia. No -- win situation.
Carl: Interesting post. The IMF is in a 'lose lose' situation. The $18 billion they need is a drop in the bucket that they probably won't get. If they fail to bail out Indonesia they appear to be the bad guys, so they must act. But, given the bureaucratic system that they have, they will probably move too slowly with too little, too late.

The 'acquisitor' banking money collecting types have about shot their wad, and it is time for the 'worker' types to rise up and take over. It will be interesting to see what kind of 'warrior' type is handed the reins of Indonesian government by the 'workers'. I am using the terminology of Sarkar, who seems to be an unusually insightful analyser of human cycles throughout history. By 'worker' I do not mean this in the communist sense, but in the sense of the general public who have lost their assets to the 'acquisitors'. In the US the 'worker' would include me -- the middle class. And -- the same thing is happening here -- but it is not as advanced.

Indonesia's only chance of avoiding civil war is an emergency bailout by someone. But -- this is complicated by the fact that the corrupt business practices in Indonesia have probably not been corrected. Hence, much of the money sent to Indonesia will vanish in the deflationary black hole, never to be seen again. I doubt that any nations will step in quickly enough. Hope we have lots of ships near Djakarta to pick up evacuees. The staggering thought is that we are talking about a population equal to that of the United States -- about 200 million individuals.

My guess is that it will get worse before it gets better, IMHO. Jin - take care, and please keep your head down inside that foxhole I hope you have, or something like it.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 08:43 - ID#57232)
China reduces reserve requirements
Donald: Good morning! I have a question to our Kitco banker, information gatherer par excellance! If China reduces reserve requirements, that would mean that they have less banking reserves, and they are admitting problems with their debt. I would think that this approach would increase the likelihood of money going down the drain, as it sends just the opposite message that one would like to send during a financial crisis. Did our illustrious banking systems do the same in the US when we had the S&L and Banking loan crises?

I guess what is happening is that the Chinese are trying to hang on without devaluation, and consuming their reserves. When their reserves dry up, then we will have the devaluation expected.

I find all of this information gathering and interpreting frustrating. We can see what is happening, and we can see what is very likely to happen, but we cannot tell when. Reminds me of my days canoeing on the Connecticut river at night one time -- was terrified because I could hear the rushing water of a large dam up ahead. But -- I could not tell how far away it was.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 08:51 - ID#57232)
Logging off for chores -- Final post on moon water.
Obsidian, all: Still am embarrassed about getting dark side mixed up with far side. If I were to become an asteroid miner, I would nead a little refresher in astrophysics.

According to the morning paper, NASA has found over 6 billion gallons of water ( ice ) at the poles of the moon ( where the sun doesn't shine! ) . They used a passive neutron flux detector in orbit to detect the hydrogen, rather than the water directly. Sceptic that I am, I would stil l be much happier if we actually landed something and tested directly. But at -170 or so Farenheight at the lunar poles I do not have any suggestions. Regardless, NASA found a lot of hydrogen at the poles, and the most likely guess is ice.

See you all later!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 09:20 - ID#30116)
Food for thought....
A bottoming in the CRB index? A bottoming in the XAU? Just tossing the question out there...

(Sat Mar 07 1998 09:31 - ID#30116)
While we're at it...
Has anyone given serious thought to the fact that Intel has broken its' 200 DMA TWICE ( to the downside ) in the last six months? Or how about the fact that the SOX index ( Phili Semiconductor index ) has failed to breach the 200 DMA, and closed the week back below the 100 DMA?

This is not say that the tech stocks are dead, but there is trouble in happy land. The question could become, "Is this a classic 'narrowing' of the market?"

With unemployment at 4.6% nation wide, and the tech industry trying to loosen up imigration laws for more foreign engineers, one has to wonder, are labor costs that far from moving up??? I think not. Keep an eye on the CRB. This should be getting interesting soon.........

(Sat Mar 07 1998 09:33 - ID#30116)
Wow! I'm even copyrighted now.... :- ) )


(Sat Mar 07 1998 09:37 - ID#359316)
Junior Mar 07 06:33
The post at "Discussion on Gold Bars, Coins and Stocks" was not from ANOTHER on this date:

Date: Fri Mar 06 1998 05:33
The moment is not long from happening. Those who matter are ready to collect their dues. I will post again in 24 hours.

See also:
Date: Sat Feb 28 1998 11:20
Another ( ) ID#213337:

Yet Another!

And this one was posted by me just now ( try it yourself on that forum, there is no security there ) :

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 09:26
Test-please ignore. A gold key opens many doors.

When ANOTHER posts, it will be here, and the ID# will be 60253

(Sat Mar 07 1998 09:41 - ID#341189)
Mark these words for future reference - we will hear them again in many places.
"In an emergency situation,it would be more necessary to create order rather than openness."

Legislators moved today to grant President Suharto sweeping new security powers to deal with the potential social fallout of financial belt-tightening measures in the country's worst economic crisis in three decades.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 09:55 - ID#341312)
Miro, John B., Y2K
Miro, nicely said. BTW, Sec of the Treasury said yesterday that from now
on they will concentrate on mission critical systems only because there
are not enough resources to fix everything. So thats one agency that already admits they won't be fully compliant. I'm not sure how serious this actually is but it is rather unsettling. Also, Congressman Horn's latest grades for DOD and DOT progress on Y2K are nice, solid F's! Minor annoyance or full blown collapse? Who really knows? Tick, tick, tick...

(Sat Mar 07 1998 09:58 - ID#206358)
Thanks,Carl...great pos!Jtf,yes both L-L!
At last,the WHITEHOUSE curious about the tensions.They have been under-estimated the situations.
This monday should be big impact in the south east asia.Since some banks in singapore and malaysia been down grade by the moody.Land of the smile-Thailand also looks sad-face!Actually,few local banks and securities talked about merged.But,..none of them got MARRIED!Many listed companies also 'TECNICALLY BANKCRUPT',still teh govts deny the truth.Sometimes,i myself regret and feel sad why the ORIENTAL peoples always hide themself away,never face the truth!That's why happening the whole branches of SHITS!And the shits just spread wider and wider..!
Look back the histories,that's why we have the opiumwar,vietnam war,koreawar,cambodia,pakistan/india depart,......They loan the land ,spread the countries,until the BIG POWER to solved their's own countries problems.
What's the GREAT WALL means?Not to protect them self from enemy,but,to hide them self away.LIE TO THEMSELF for thousands years.What a civilizations......
Sorry,..just my opinions!off for the soccer match!Ohh, the way,thats only few things can union the people around South east asia!That's BADMINTON,SOCCER AND TAKRAW!IMF should provide these facilities,instead teaching them ECONOMY!

Just small me........good nite!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 10:05 - ID#256458)
aurator/Shakespear site
If you're a Shakespear fan you might enjoy this site

(Sat Mar 07 1998 10:09 - ID#341189)
SDRer, Donald, JTF, any of you wise well informed people - Question
The SDR ( IMF's world reserve "currency" ) is valued by a basket of 5 currencies. Two of those - franc and mark - are going to the uro dollar and maybe even a third if England joins up. Does anyone know what will happen to the evaluation of the SDR? Second question, how important do you think it is for maintaining the dollar as the world's effective trading reserve currency for the SDR to remain as the world's "bailout" currency?
Just thinking.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 10:16 - ID#341214)
Miro, John B
Miro: Last night I tried to prepare a response to John B that went a lot like yours ( expensive storage not lazy programmers ) and my text editor crashed just as I was finishing it. Thanks for picking up the ball.

John B: I wanted to add that you labor under another misconception, that of the government using 1960s hardware. I have no facts in front of me but I would presume that most government computers were built in the 80's and 90's. If, in fact, the government was using 1960 computers this country would be in much better shape. The power of the computer is one
of the factors that allows governments to be so intrusive in peoples lives. If they were using such old hardware that intrusion would be at a much lower level. The age of the software is another matter. Because it is possible to port software from an older computer to a newer one
the age of some of the code could possiby stretch back much further, the 70's and maybe even the 60's.

Just to give you an example of what you were talking about regarding expensive storage, around 1980 I purchased a floppy disk drive for an Apple II computer for $500. A diskette held the grand sum of about 167,000 characters of data, a character being the same as one letter of
this post. Today I can take that same $500 and buy a 6 to 8 gigibyte hard disk drive which holds in the neighborhood of 8,000,000,000 characters. Do the math to figure out the cost per character and you will see it's quite a difference. This is just an example on a small scale. The cost per character for main frames was much higher prior to the 80's.

You are also misinformed when you state that the problem is getting smaller everyday. Nothing could be further from the truth. This Y2K dragon is still growing and sprouting heads everywhere. Cut one off and two more appear in its place. Not a week goes by that I don't read
an article or two where someone states that the problem has been underestimated, the costs have been underestimated, the time to test the changes has been underestimated, the number of people to get the job done has been underestimated. We are still early in the growth of this
thing. When you see programmer/analyst rates double from their current rates you can assume that the extent of the problem has been discovered and we are finally on the downhill side of solving this thing. That moment will likely come early next year. The problem is the bottom of the hill ( full Y2K resolution ) is someplace in 2003 or beyond.

Miro and other people like myself know the job won't get done in time. We know how long it takes to plan a major project, staff it and do it. That's the reason we take time from our busy schedules to try and keep people on this board informed about. We are trying to do people a favor, not scare them.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 10:18 - ID#341189)
JIN, Thanks and take care.
Jin, I thought it was curious that your post of the other day describing unrest there could not be confirmed here except by news reports here on "student protests". You are an invaluable source of news and thought for us all. Many Thanks, Carl

(Sat Mar 07 1998 10:19 - ID#287358)
Barrons Article

There was an artilce in barrons today on Peter Munks speach to central banks. He suggested that producers might buy gold from the central banlks if they needed to sell. It stated that this may be illegal. Placerdome, AngolAmerican, and Barrick were in favor of this and Newmont was agaist it. I thought it sounded like a risky idea but it's nice to hear some effort on getting central banks to sell in an ordely way even if they don't use this metthod. Even Rothchild made comments this week on central bank sales killing the minning industry.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 10:38 - ID#341189)
Here's a phrase with an ominous ring - "multi-polar [world] order"

(Sat Mar 07 1998 10:38 - ID#287277)
SilverBaron, WetGold, JTF--Thoughts on the dinar...

I do not expect to find a gold dinar ( 1992 ) in my local Frankfort, Johannesburg, etc. shop...and here is why:

The task the Islamic world has undertaken is enormous and fraught with difficulties. In Iran, where the government and Islam are one, the gradual ascendancy of the dinar from the mosque to the bazaar will perhaps cause less political trauma, but other nations present delicate political problems.

Putting aside for a time the logistic problems of actually distributing the coinage, there is the simple dilemma of who gets what and when do they get it; there is the problem of distributing money without undermining--or in ANY way threatening-- the local duly constituted government ( one wonders if Dr. Erbakans problems are not attributable to this basic conflict ) ; there is the problem of compensating political authority for the loss of seigniorage, which will require delicate diplomatic resolution.

The problem panoply is daunting: and, as great care must be taken to ensure that no host government is made to feel threatened by the distribution of the coins--it might be reasonable to assume that the mosque must act as a focal point.

In addition, perhaps it is not unreasonable to suggest that Muslims holding the dinar will respond to Greshems Law, that is, spend the paper currency of the country and treasure the golden dinar. It will be some time before the dinar makes an appearance in western coin shops, or indeed becomes visible to western eyes. Or so I believe.

Car@You're.Always.Thinking ( and it's a dangerous habit, my friend! ) {:- )
My first post on the board mentioned that I beleived China would enter the basket when it is reconfigured in 2000. Essentially, there will be five 'regionals' I suspect. It ( China's entry--or Asean entry ) is one of the reasons I feel the region will seek to define its own hegemony through a currency--the currency a symbol of hegemony, or something ( more after coffee! ) ...very complicated with strands NOT economic...

(Sat Mar 07 1998 10:58 - ID#57232)
Saw your post about the SDR
Carl: SDRer knows far more than I about this. First, I don't think it is a question of whether the US dollar should be the world's premier currency -- it is and will be until turmoil in the US dollar is too much for people to use it. What I mean by this -- just as with the Pound Stering before the dollar -- is that people tend to use a single currency preferentially for their business, making all transactions cheaper in that currency. Economy of scale. Eventually everyone is 'locked in' to the use of that currency. Hence it will take alot of turmoil for people to move away from the dollar -- it will not happen voluntarily, sadly to say. But -- there are stirrings in SEAsia, and in the Moslem world.

Secondly I would guess the SDR will stay as it is -- a 'backup' basket currency for international exchange, with the exchange rates as published. If the German mark and the French frank were to disappear off the face of the earth, then the SDR would change -- probably with the addition of the EURO as replacement.

I have learned something else about the SDR -- perhaps SDRer will enlighten us on this matter. And that is that the SDR cannot ever be as stong as the strongest currency making it up, because it is a composite. However, it will always be stronger than the weakest currency, for the same reason. Hence, during a period of serious 'currency flight' the SDR will weaken relative to any stronger currencies. So, liquidity of the SDR is suspect during a full-blownout crisis, since all of the liquidity will be fleeing to the strongest world currency available. I suspect that this is a corollary to Gresham's law. Thus, strange as it may sound, you will always be better off putting your money in the 'strongest currency of the year' whatever that is, than you will be in the SDR.

So -- you do reduce fluctuations up and down with a currency basket such as the SDR, which makes it an excellent international medium of exchange. But as a place to put your savings, it would be best to put them in the strongest currency of the basket. And the liquidity in the SDR may not be there when you need it - in a really big crisis.

SDRer -- comments? You are the expert!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 11:13 - ID#31581)
ALL....I suggest looking at the weekly charts of the PMs
I'm not an expert in this area, but it seems to me that the weekly charts as well as the dailies are indicating a near term reversal of the prior trend. There are a number of double bottoms and reverse head & shoulder patterns that have developed. Some are a bit stronger than others so far such as CDE, HM, ABX, BMG & HL. So far, NEM & NGC are lagging. Much of this could be wishful thinking, but with all of the bad news on gold this week, the stocks surely don't reflect it in their action. All that is required from here is an increase in volume on some modest rise in prices and we could well have a full fledged rally from here.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 11:13 - ID#57232)
Carl: I think I missed part of your thoughts. Are you saying what will become of the SDR if the Dollar is deposed?

My guess is that the SDR will remain regardless as a basket of the world's strongest currencies -- unless something better comes along. I think that somehing better will be a gold-backed currency. Despite what Alan Greenspan said -- probably 'tongue in cheek' -- a gold backed currency is still a better choice than a currency basket -- because of Gresham's law. In one sense, we already have a 'black market' world gold standard currency at the LBMA. Now at 2000tonnes/day?

What better international currency could you use than one that is firmly backed by gold, and hence incorruptible? And -- during times of crisis -- flight to safety,etc. I think it would still be there to use -- unless someone figures out how to hoard it.

I agree with SDRer, Carl -- you are always thinking!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 11:17 - ID#287277)
Notes on the margin--I should probably wait for the coffee before I post...

1. That should be Gresham, of course ( sleepy fingers )

2. European Investment Bank ( goodness, but there are a LOT of banks...check the UN page some day and gasp ) ...the EIB to target US with euro benchmark--The European Investment Bank is to launch its much awaited 10 year benchmark in euros 3/5/98, with an eye to capturing the US investor base.
FT, 3/5/98

3. On the Australian gold conference--ECB urged to organize gold auctions, the last two paragraphs of the article should be of interest to us: Mr. von Arentschildt said the consensus was that gold would account for about 10 per cent of the new European Central Banks reserves. He suggested that this GROSSLY UNDERESTIMATED the incentive for the ECB to hold a relatively large proportion of its reserves as gold.

Germany, France and Italy would have a clear majority in voting on the composition of reserve compositions of the ECB, including the proportion of gold.Traditionally these countries have equated gold reserves with stability, Mr. von Arentschildt said. They are also some of the largest holders of the metal. Collectively they hold some 75 per cent of the 11 gold reserves held by the 11 Emu members. So they would suffer the most if the ECB were to hold a low percentage of its reserves in gold.

JTF@Happy.Saturday.Morning! I still hope that reason will reign, and the SDR become a gold-backed currency of account for the world, "belonging" to no-one country or region, but serving all with fairness and honesty... Let me have a cup of coffee in the garden, and we'll discuss more thoughtfully! {:- ) P.S. Enjoyed the "Other side of the moon" comments. Strangely enough, a young friend just finished her doctorate in that very subject. Long years at JPL pouring over datastream from the moon. She is--as she puts it--World's Expert-until-the-next-Expert. As she is on her honeymoon, she is unavailable for comment at this time! But you made a great stand-in!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 11:21 - ID#57232)
Logging off again
lenaxe: I agree with you -- the next two or three weeks are critical. Review of gold/gold stock charts over the last two years would indicate that our current upturn is one of the longest we have had.

So -- what will it be? A return to the depths, or a fledgling gold bull? Personally, I think only war, or a non-deflationary crisis in Europe would do it. Another major deflationary crisis in SEAsia -- obviously brewing as Jin has told us -- would be bearish for gold.

Strikes in South Africa are likely if the gold markets do not recover very, very soon. That might be bullish for gold outside SAfrica -- I defer to the experts.

We may need to trim our sails abit for the coming storm. We will have plenty of time later to invest in the world's only truly incorruptible medium of exchange -- gold.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 11:27 - ID#57232)
JPL! Better take off before spouse cuts the lines!
SDRer: Had some friends many years ago at JPL. More years ago than I would like to admit. If your friend wrote an entire PhD thesis about the moon -- that is a very good sign indeed. That at least means that serious thought is being given to colonization. I would very much like to hear what she thinks about how all that water go there!

By the way -- all may aguements about the weakness of the SDR go out the window if it is firmly gold-backed. That is clearly the way to go -- it is just a matter of knowing when the 'fiat' currency world is ready for a gold-backed currency -- and knowing what will be chosen!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 11:27 - ID#341189)
I think your obsevations on the PM stocks are right on. I too have noticed their relative non response to the physical. Most of them look like quiet accumulation to me, with low volume down days and higher volume up days. But, as with the physical, nobody is willing to carry through on the upside making it still a dangerous market for anyone except nimble range traders and long term accumulators. I'm in the latter camp.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 11:32 - ID#330175)
The day after

(Sat Mar 07 1998 11:38 - ID#330175)
Is it too early for this,huh


Accountants do it with Double Entry
Acupuncturist do it with a small prick
Ambulance driver comes quicker
Australians do it Down Under
Bach did it using the organ
Bankers do it with interest
Bartenders do it on the Rocks
Batman does it using his Robin
Bee Keepers do it with their stingers
Bookeepers do it for the record
Bosses delegate the task to others
Chess players check their Mates
Cops do it with cuffs
DJs do it on request
Deep-sea divers do it under extreme pressure
Dentist do it orally
Detectives do it under cover
Don't do it with Bankers, most of them are Tellers
Elevator men do it up and down
Engineers do it to specifications
Engineers do it to a first order approximation
Firemen do it with a big hose
Frank Sinatra do it his way
Garbagemen come twice a week
Lawyers do it in their briefs

Mike Stewart
(Sat Mar 07 1998 11:46 - ID#270253)
Short Covering on ABX
One of our astute posters ( I am sorry but I forget which one ) stated that the gold bear will be over when the massive short porition on ABX is covered. Well, in Toronto the short position went from about 18.6 million shares in mid Feb to 13.5 million share at the end of Feb. It is happening.

Whoever made that observation should post to take credit for a good idea.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 12:01 - ID#341189)
JTF your addendum
Actually, I was wondering about dollar depending on the IMF. ( the other way around in other words ) As you suggest, what is used as a reserve currency has a lot of inertia going for it for the reasons you mention. But reality has a way of winning in the end. The US has "benifitted" from the dollar status in that it can finance, what is it now? $6 trillion? in accumulated debt and a trade deficit without end. My question has to do with potential triggers for the loss of this status. Suppose the IMF loses its credibility in the present fiasco. Its function seems to have been to bailout $ denominated debt. What happens if credit dollars just start vanishing around the world? Are banks likely to continue to lend in dollars? Trade surplusses that others carry with us are in dollars. Are these countries likely to keep those surplusses in dollars if there is significant lending to be done in other currencies? This is all, perhaps, beyond my ability to track down, so I appreciate your help.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 12:04 - ID#258129)
John Disney__A , Your yesterdays 22:13
I have find Your message today only - it was 4 am in Europe, when You post it. I can agree, that Gold / Silver ratio is likely to go up. But, in last couple of weeks all changes in ratio where caused by Silver price ( WB effect ) . If it will remain like this, it is probable, that ratio grows will be caused by decline of Silver price and not by grows of Gold price. Prices of Gold and Silver more or less follow each other for years. Last weeks this dependence was broken - pure speculative event caused by WB purchase, IMHO. Sooner or later it should be back to normal. I will be glad to be wrong and see Gold up instead of Silver down.

Spud Master
(Sat Mar 07 1998 12:06 - ID#273112)
for Tolerant1; re. IMF getting birth certificates...
Tolerant1; you may recall a post here a month or so back concerning the IMF receiving birth certificates of US Citizens via the "Sheppard-Towner Act".

I got hold of the Act ( Sixty-Seventh Congress, Sess. I, Chs. 135, 1921, page 224 ) . It's three pages long and says NOTHING AT ALL about the IMF, birth ceritificates.

In fact, having read it TWICE,with great care, I can't really figure out WHAT the damn act created except some agency called "The Children's Bureau" of the Department of Labor. I be happy to fax a copy to anyone who'd like it.

It really just reads like another bureacratic sinecure.

Whoever posted here originaly about all new born birth certificates copies being sent to the IMF was full of it.

Spud, rooting about in the soggy, rotten paper of our corrupt Federal Government.

John B__A
(Sat Mar 07 1998 12:06 - ID#17470)
Miro - FundaMetalist
I agree that the origination of the Y2K problem goes beyond "lazy programming" Early mainframes ( and this is where 98% of the problem lies ) operated with as little as 8K of core storage. Programmers had to squeeze their programs to fit the limitations of physical core storage. Even when core storage expanded to 1M on large mainframes in the sixtys, it was important to limit the size of individual programs to accommodate concurrent multi-programming. This "programmer conditioning" to save space became more important than worrying about the year 2000.

Beginning in the 70s however, when addressing and storage limitations were progressively overcome, this "conditioning" became either a lazy habit or a disbelief that their program could possibly still be in use to the year 2000.

Nevertheless this problem now falls into the category of programming "bugs" I have never seen a programming bug ( s ) that could not be fixed. I suspect Mr. Miro that with your expertise and the assistance of one competent system programmer, one assembler programmer and one cobol programmer that over the next 21 months there would be very few Y2K problems that you could not fix.

My only true interest in this subject is that we "goldbugs" not delude ourselves that the Y2K problem will be the one that pulls our precious metals investments out of the muck.

Spud Master
(Sat Mar 07 1998 12:16 - ID#273112)
@JohnB & Year2000 cake walk...
you wrote:
"I have never seen a programming bug ( s ) that could not be fixed."

No. of course not. Just hand over the $200/hour rate I'll charge and the five or six months of overtime. No wait - Prez Clinton's lawyer get's $585/hour - I think that's just peachy-OK for us software engineers as well to fix the bleeding Year2000 problems fostered by lazy, inept managers & CEOs.

We are about to witness the biggest transfer of wealth this nation has ever seen: from the rich elite of New England, New York, Washington D.C., to the software engineers.

Small wonder Senator Moynihan passed that legistlation to TRY to limit software professionals income.

Mr. Mick
(Sat Mar 07 1998 12:28 - ID#345321)
SpudMaster - how much can s/w engineers ask for?
Is someone getting these high rates you speak of?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 12:42 - ID#266105)

I still like mine better-- CHL. Outta here, gotta
go to the bank.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 12:54 - ID#390249)
DOW at 10,000 or 5,000 by 2000

(Sat Mar 07 1998 12:58 - ID#60253)
With this post of:

Date: Sat Feb 28 1998 16:33


I offered, that these thoughts would be as morning sun thru the fog of night. Today, this sun does shine. Kitco does offer a public right, for all to see. We step forward and make this right as day. Please read the post that soon follow:

The Management of Gold, A Simple Tool for the 90s

A Noble Purpose, This Oil For Gold


At appx. 19:00 USA /CST I will offer a post for Price.

thank you

(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:00 - ID#341214)
John B, Mr. Mick
John B: I agree 100% with you that we should not depend on Y2K to pull our chestnuts out of the fire regarding our investments. I do feel we should all do some planning toward the day that Y2K could severly burn those chestnuts and PM's are part of my plans.

You also have a good point about what has gone on in the last 20 years but, like Spud points out, this has to be layed at the feet of the managers not the programmers. I've been mentioning Y2K to managers since the mid 80's and I had exactly one tell me to take the extra time needed to bring a system into date compliance.

Mr. Mick: Probably a good rule of thumb to use right now would be $50 to $65 dollars an hour for programmer/analysts with plenty of experience, at least in the SF Bay Area. I'd be interested in what others are seeing in other parts of the country. I bet Washington, D.C. is above what I mentioned.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:05 - ID#258129)
Y2K and EURO software problems
I do not know, how the things are in USA, but in Europe people are working on it at I see no reason for panic. Here are some numbers.
Companies, currently Y2K EURO
have projects or ready
Europe 82% 66%
Netherlands 92% 64%

(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:05 - ID#153102)
@Leland Thanks for the link to Yggdrasil notes @SS
According to these notes: CB's have 12% less gold than in 1988-89.
One fourth of world gold is in CB hands; three fourths is in private hands
Gold fabricated for the adornment of women is the largest portion of the world's hoard.
An accumulator other than a selling CB or an industrial user would not agree to deferred delivery ( i.e. paper gold ) ; slow delivery means the CB are having trouble keeping enough supply to market to suppress the price.

A Japanese bank crisis might be anticipated to cause a dishoarding of gold there. A gold price drop could occur from bolder short speculators in those circumstances.

This link documents the bankruptcy of social security in the less developed countries, like Argentina, in the past decades and
what governments did.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:08 - ID#60253)
The Management of Gold, A Simple Tool for the 90s

For any currency to maintain a reserve status, it must be, in some fashion, convertible into gold! In the past, the US$ was freely exchanged for a fixed amount of gold. $20 dollars was equal to one ounce. If the country wanted to make its money stronger, it would lower the amount of currency units fixed to one ounce. $10 dollars per ounce made the currency more valuable in the market and it would buy more things. Also, a country could decrease the value of its currency by raising the number of units to the ounce of gold, say $40. The problem with the fixed gold system is found in matching the amount of gold in the treasury to the fix! To make the money stronger, one had to bring in gold, as it took twice as many ounces to back a currency in circulation at $10 as it did at $20! The reverse is true when lowering the money value to $40. Then, one half the treasury gold backing had to be removed as only half was now needed to back the dollar.

You have probably not read this slant on the past gold standard because it was never quoted in quite that way, nor looked at in that fashion. If you allow your mind to perceive the above, one will clearly see that it was gold that gave the currency value. In that time one did not look to see how many dollars gold was valued with, rather, how much gold was bid for each unit in circulation!

Today, the world reserve currency is not on a fixed gold standard, it is on a freely convertible gold standard. One may, anywhere in the world, convert US$s into gold. This new freely convertible standard does still allow the dollar to be backed by gold for those who still demand a gold fixing. That requirement is enforced by a certain

commodity, oil. Yet, there is a price for the benefit of having all oil sales settled in US$. Yes, even in this modern era, for the US$ to remain on an oil standard it must be on some form of gold standard! Regain the perception in the top paragraph. Then understand that for oil to back the dollar, the dollar must find value in gold. And the dollar finds more value if it is fixed by the freely convertible gold standard, to buy more gold!

This convertible gold market is old from the mid 70s but is new from the early 90s. It is old by the 70s because it is freely convertible, but it is new by the 90s as it is not freely tradable! The US$ price of physical gold is no longer fixed from supply and

demand, rather it is created through the market action of paper gold. Truly, it is the US$ has become the item traded in the paper gold market, not physical gold. Participants have yet to realize that the gold futures, gold options and gold forward markets, worldwide, have become little more than currency trading arenas. The percentage of gold delivered against these markets has grown so small as to be nonexistence when compared to actual metal settled at closing. Physical gold does still move, and in size, but this is little or nothing compared to the paper gold traded.

We are brought to this point for a purpose, but how did we get here? The largestproducers of gold were introduced to the use of large scale forward contracts by the Bullion Banks. Once the process started, good business required it to expand. Shareholders want maximum profits at all price levels and forward deals were good at any price of gold. Once hooked on hedge profits during the good times of a high gold price, the mines now must have at all cost forward deals, just to survive. Some say the mines will not forward sell at these, break even prices. However, the shareholders say its better to hedge now, for a lower price will bring doom! With the US$ price of gold holding at just above average break even levels, and the ensuing virtual bankruptcy of several well known companies, it appears that the mine owners are correct.

Understand, that many entities lend gold, but it is the CBs that started and do most of it. Their purpose was to create a paper gold market that would allow them to manage the freely convertible price of gold. The CB lends the gold to a bank that sells it on the open market.

( Usually, the gold is placed privately as it must go to the correct

destination. ) Then the bank holds the money and draws interest as incremental payments are made to the mine for new gold delivered against the contract. Over the long period that a mine takes to produce and repay the gold, this money grows. To grasp the fact that the CBs had a plan, is to know that they lend the gold for only 1% or 2% while the proceeds set in a Bullion Bank and grow with interest for the benefit of the BB and the mine! And further, the lenders allow the return of the gold to be extended out for many years, as in spot deferred. The CBs allow public opinion to think of this as typical government stupid, its not!

Now that the gold price in US$ is around production cost, most mines must use paper gold to survive. The gold industry is coming under world bank domination, without signing away any sovereignty! Slowly, the CBs are gaining the ability to manage production and price with this simple tool.

If they want new mine supply on the market, they roll over the contract to the BB. If they want new supply off the market, they allow the BB to pay for and take delivery of the gold and return it to the CB vault. Also, by offering ( or withholding ) vault gold from lease, they affect the lease rate and thereby control private lending as well

Understand that the second sentence action is used because gold lending is done by many different entities. Many times a mine isnt even involved. Sometimes, gold isnt even involved, just paper. But, its still based on the gold price! The paper price, that is.

thank you

(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:11 - ID#31868)
The comment you refer to was posted right here from Cuervo Central and was pulled from the The Whitepaper on Citizenship. I still can not verify if it is bull yet myself. The laws in the United States and how they relate to one another are like sorting through the Universe and looking for an exclusive particle unto itself having no tie to any other in the Cosmos.

Clearly we all know that I think many of the laws in the United States are written so as to be incomprehensible. Clearly ignorance of the law could be used as a defense as our Supreme Court Judges cannot agree as to the various interpretations. One look at the tax code and I rest my case and I am sure the Judges on the lofty Supreme Court need advisors who themselves disagree as to the meaning of the code when filing their taxes.

With that said. I present the specific piece that your reference.

From the paper:

You may also find it disturbing to know how an administrative procedure can remove your children from you. In 1921 Congress passed the Sheppard-Towner Maternity Act that created the United States birth "registration" area ( see Public Law 97, 67th Congress, Session I, Chapter 135, 1921. ) That act allows you to register your children when they are born. If you do so, you will get a copy of the birth certificate. By registering your children, which is voluntary, they become Federal Children. This does several things: Your children become subjects of Congress ( they lose their state citizenship ) . A copy of the birth certificate is sent to the Department of Vital Statistics in the state in which they were born. The original birth certificate is sent to the Department of Commerce in the District of Columbia. It then gets forwarded to an International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) building in Europe. Your child's future labor and properties are put up as collateral for the public debt.

PS-I am usure of the copyright laws as they relate to postings here, but this most, for sure, ( plain speak ) came from The Whitepaper on Citizenship, off of

(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:19 - ID#60253)
A Noble Purpose, This Oil For Gold

When one considers the merits of a specialized world oil currency, the thought usually turns immediately to send in the military and stop them. I must ask, why? If an oil currency is born before or out of the shambles of an financial meltdown, and it offers great benefit to all, again I ask, why stop it? Look at the merits of such a move:

In a very real currency sense, oil will be devalued in terms of gold. As one makes a currency weaker by increasing the money units per ounce of gold. Oil will become very cheap in gold, as the amount of gold paid per barrel will fall dramatically as compared to todays ratio. There will be much more than enough gold worldwide to quantify a world

oil currency. To that end, the world paper reserve currency at use in that time, will continue to be traded for oil at an extremely low price relative to today. The only change will be the addition of a unit of real value added to each trade, a world oil currency, gold! However, in terms of todays currencies, gold will be upvalued to perhaps $10,000 to $30,000 an ounce. So as not to rewrite what is already an excellent piece on this coming readjustment, I will repost part of Mr. Allen ( USA ) s perfect article on the subject along with his requested changes per his :Date: Mon Dec 15 1997 11:06

Allen ( USA ) ID#246224:

Date: Sun Dec 14 1997 18:59

Allen ( USA ) ( More ruminations re: ANOTHER's recent posts ) ID#255190:

Last one on this topic until more ANOTHER posts. I'm not sure that it would be necessary to have that large a cabul in on the "offer" of oil for gold. Given the rather small market in gold in comparison to oil/currencies it would only take one or two well endowed oil states to pull this off. Here's why.

Let's say the Saudi's have been accumulating gold through the back door ( approx. 5,000 tonnes ) . They sell say 20 Mln Bbl oil a day. Close enough. At one ounce of gold per thousand Bbl oil that's 10,000 ounces of physical gold per day. That's a lot of physical gold.

The first few moments after the Saudi's proposal to trade oil for gold at a very steep discount of 1000 Bbl/oz ( approx. 1.5% of current US$ price ) there would be roars of laughter. One fast thinker after another would think "Hey. I buy some gold at $300/oz, trade for oil to receive 1 Mln Bbl, then sell the 1 Mln Bbl for US$ 10 Mln. Net profit is

$10,000,000-$300,000=$9,700,000. Easy money." .

Everyone at once turns to the gold market to buy, which promptly shuts

down. Now no one is laughing. Because everyone realizes that gold is now

worth at least $10,000 per ounce and no one is prepared for that revaluation. Whoever has gold now has 66.67 times the purchasing power in that stockpile. What appeared to be a stupid offer has now become a complete revaluation of all gold stockpiles vs all currencies.

Who has the gold?

( per corrections :Date: Mon Dec 15 1997 11:06 Allen ( USA ) ID#246224: )

Saudi stockpile guest-imate 5,000 metric tonnes = 5,000,000,000 GRAMS

not ounces. Gold now at US$9.65 per gram revalued by multiple of 66.67 =

US$643.37 per gram x 5 Bln grams = US$3.2 Tln.

Germany 2900 metric tonnes = 2.9 Bln grams, revalued to US$1.8 Tln.

USA 8,085 metric tonnes = 8.1 Bln grams, revalued to US$5.2 Tln.

Is this plausible??? How is it possible by making one little change in oil dealings could this ever happen? It is simply the very intelligent use of the scarcity of gold and the necessity of oil. It is the desire of one party, who is big enough to swamp the gold market, to make it the preferred vehicle for buying oil. In fact if not one ounce of gold is ever transacted for oil, but the offer is continued intact, then gold will be revalued simply by the possibility of trading. Those who are in a bad way in their currency situation can always get oil with their gold.

What would the impact of this revaluation of gold and currencies do? It

would instantly shift economic and financial power into the hands of those who own large amounts of gold: CB's, Saudi's, Roths et al. It would mean that gold/oil would be THE CENTRAL POINTS OF ECONOMIC REFERENCE. It would mean that currencies would be devalued by a factor of 1000 in relationship to the new standard of gold ( as a proxy for oil wealth ) It would upset an awful lot of people. There would be no TARGET to shoot

at or take over, however, because all other oil producers would immediately jump on this band wagon. Its a simple matter of what an interested party is willing to receive for their goods. Venezuela, with gold and oil reserves and production capacity, would be one of the wealthiest nations on earth. The world would be turned upside down geopolitically, wouldn't it. Literally

"..the 'have-nots of the world will become the 'have's.."

Mr. Allen ( USA ) , Another thanks you for this thinking. It should be read by everyone with an interest in this area. It should also be studied by students wishing to learn of market dynamics. We also offer this piece as an addumnum to the above, also by the same author.

Date: Mon Dec 15 1997 10:49

Allen ( USA ) ( Quick Note to JTF re: 23:05 post - US$ oil float ) ID#246224:

US$ price of oil is floating. The "proposal" to offer oil for gold at say 1000 Bbl/oz is far below the present float price in US$. The gold market is SO SMALL that if the oil nation that made this proposal was pumping enough oil the gold market would be swamped by oil buyers who were looking to make a few ( !! ) US$ on the discrepancy in price. In effect this would revalue gold by inserting an entire different group of buyers into the gold market who have ALOT of mney.

Why is it the oil nation would not just buy at market? Same as above. Their effect in the open market would basically shut down the market thereby frustrating their efforts to buy gold. Conversely, why would they then make the "proposal"? Because either they have enough gold to buy the world at the new price, there is a crisis in which they feel it is to their advantage to do this ( such as a US$ crisis ) or they might have a geopolitical rational. In the new valuation the US$ would still be intact. But its monopoly role would be altered. Its not that currencies would become worthless but that gold would become worth much more in relationship to paper currencies.

To answer the military question, asked at the begining of this article, I say:

The massive increase in the reserve currency price of gold would, no doubt be ushered into the USA house of congress as a godsend answer to Americas debt problems. With the full production of oil, now viewed as a sure thing, The world may well see the USA send the military into the Middle East just to ensure that this deal is not disturbed. After all, it is oil that will be massively devalued by gold.

Thank you

Spud Master
(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:21 - ID#273112)
@Mr. Mick & software enginering rates...
If you are a CONTRACT software engineer, in my North Texas area the rate is $50/hour - no health care, no dental care, no retirement, no butt-wiping. You are in charge of your own destiny.

If you are a CORPORATE software engineer ( translation: "slave" ) you get somewhere between $18/hour to $28/hour in the form of a "salary". Of course, if you STUPIDLY work overtime for $0 this drops your effective rate. You do, of course, get illusory benefits like health care ( premium/copay always increasing, benefits decreasing ) , same for dental care, and retirement ( that probably isn't worth a damn considering the devious shysters called CEOs and CFOs who manage same ) .

Personally, I am going to run the stops on my software rates, as I encourage all other software engineers to as well, for a variety of reasons:

#1 - We do real, tangible work - unlike lawyers & politicians - who pay themselves very, very, very well ( $500/hour ) & have no trouble sleeping at night.

#2 - To shove in the faces of lawyers & politicians that power is shifting from those who control with talk & words, to those who contol computers.

#3 - Most importantly - to shake down this rotten house of cards that the heirarchical elite have constructed over the years to effectively enslave ALL of us, while they live the good life. No lawyer, no politician, no corporate CEO is worth millions of dollars a year. They'd better be inventing warp drive, cures for cancer and working cold fusion. They aint. They are simply parasites with power; power they are going to loose.

EB, will, of course, ask me how I really feel about this ( grin ) .

(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:23 - ID#31868)
Brain Salad Surgeons - PUBLIC NOTICE
If and when you can figure out what the Another entity posted, tell me what you think it said as I feel that he and Greenspan are connected at the hip and doublespeak ain't my style. So I no longer read Another or listen to Greenspan.

Thank you.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:25 - ID#60253)

I would like to start with a post from a gentleman from the Kitco forum as it sets the tone for this article:

Date: Fri Jan 23 1998 22:57

Junior ( @ ANOTHER & Change ) ID#248180:

I am reminded by ANOTHER'S comments regarding "Change" of a profound statement by a spokesman from the Middle East Oil Producers during the mid seventy's ( approx.1975 ) He said:

"My Grandfather rode a camel, my Father rode in a Mercedes, I have

numerous Jet Aircraft, my Son will ride a Camel."

It provokes thoughts that the countries of the Middle East and China are not as nervous about change as the consuming and material minded nations of the West.

Mr., Junior, thank you for that deep thought!

During the span of ones life we must consider weather we really do experience changes or are we just experiencing a rebirth of old values from the past, repackaged for this modern world. In times past, real money did not earn interest unless it was lent out. Yet, it retained value relative to all things. Today, paper currency, also does not earn interest unless it is lent out. However, it does lose value against real things, over time. In this light one must also grasp that a currency unit, in hand, is lent out already! It is a credit, to be paid in the future. Truly, cash, outside the banking system is a receipt for lent out money that just doesnt earn interest!

Much of the discussion of today, evolves around; How does one recognize real money? My answer is, find the largest store of financial units, held by banks, that is not lent out and does not earn interest. It is by far, gold! There is no other unit, in the world today,that meets this criteria. Even with the current mobilization of bank gold, it is still the number one holding of non paper credits that is not lent for return! Some would point to its price in US$ and say, it does not hold value relative to real things. That would be true, but gold, while allowed to be freely convertible into any currency, is not allowed to

trade freely. Its price is managed. It is The political metal!

We can find one entity in this modern world that firmly holds that gold is the real money amoungst moneys. That entity is the BIS. They are the only bank in the world that can buy physical gold and become financially stronger with this act. They are The Bank and their central holding is The Money of today. Other CBs buy gold and show

its value as a liability as it is not marked to the market. Yet, they can hold capital of the BIS and it is as a 100% asset!

In this modern financial world, a person of little business knowledge, can make an investment of world class proportions! He may, if you will, walk in Anothers footsteps and in doing so receive a value for a lifetime of work. The coming change in perception of money will reward courageous buyers with a return unseen in these times!

To use a sophisticated paraphrase from the Kitco Forum, go gold!

thank you

Spud Master
(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:28 - ID#273112)
I've got the Sheppard-Towner Maternity Act in front of me. Additionally, they act is ( was ) only funded for five years 1921 - 1926. I am still happy to fax a copy to someone who can get more out its three pages.

Not one of the following notions below can be found in the act, NOT ONE!:

"That act allows you to register your
children when they are born. If you do so, you will get a copy of the birth certificate. By registering your children,
which is voluntary, they become Federal Children. This does several things: Your children become subjects of
Congress ( they lose their state citizenship ) . A copy of the birth certificate is sent to the Department of Vital
Statistics in the state in which they were born. The original birth certificate is sent to the Department of
Commerce in the District of Columbia. It then gets forwarded to an International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) building
in Europe."

(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:28 - ID#330175)
Another................line of BS
You have to copyright that crap??

(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:29 - ID#26669)
One lazy rainy dreary Saturday
an hypothetical goldbug drew his hypothetical children away from their conjectural t.v. and asked them to sort through a few rolls of nonexistant junk silver that would have been cluttering up the back corner of a forgotton closet had it been real.

When they were finished the demanded 'something else to do'.

He/she recalled that many years ago on a similar forgotton day there had been a visit to a long deceased ( and thus immune from prosecution by such agents of the federal government who might choose to sublimate their homosexual/sadistic impulses by enforcement of certain Acts designed to prevent the citizens from defacing the Coin of the Realm ) grandfather who had demonstrated a children's version of metalworking using silver coins.

So our nonexistant parent might or might not have taught the alleged children the following simple but time consuming recipe:

1 ) Take one junk silver coin of common date and low grade.

2 ) Heat it gently over the kitchen stove until dull red, allow to cool fully and clean with a kitchen steel wool pad. All under the supervison of an antisocial and anarchic adult.

3 ) Take the oldest and most damaged stainless steel spoon in the house and commence pounding on the rim, moving the coin around so as to equally distribute the blows.

4 ) As the material work hardens repeat steps 1 ) 2 ) 3 ) until the desired size ring is made. This takes 2 or three days of constant pounding. The sound can be recorded and replayed at 120db via an automobile stereo system if desired.

5 ) Allow the evil adult ( who probably also insists on private or home school for the hapless children and who encourages them to participate in other antisocial activities such as reading and Boy/Girl Scouts etc ) to drill a hole in the coin. Use the hole for a starter to saw the unwanted material from the inside of the coin. ( Our hypothetical goldbug might have used a number 2 jeweler's saw blade did he/she actually exist, but any similarly small saw or even a file can be used with enough time and effort. )

6 ) A small file is used for final metal removal.

7 ) When finished this will result in a simple ring which will have traces of the coins design on the inside where they can be seen only when the ring is removes. For 1964 half dollars this includes the word "liberty" which is an archaic Americanism meaning "outmoded belief of the vast right wing conspiracy".

( By publication of this recipe I am in no way condoning the practice nor recommending it be done by anyone. Indeed I recommend that it never be done and those who do it should be branded antisocial and suffer all the terrible punishments that the US Justice Department can think of. Unless the person is Canadian, in which case we would suspect they are a closet Separatist.This is merely an educational note. )

(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:32 - ID#330175)
No double-speak there,huh....Where's the RUM?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:35 - ID#31868)
SpudMaster - Noble Peeler, holder of the sharp
knife, and I thought you were going to enter Cuervo Central and filet me by informing me, with what my friend..........................My first thought that leapt to mind upon the original reading.....IMF was formed in 1946 - I do not know if it existed in a different form prior to that.

Like I stated, trying to comprehend the incomprehensible, maybe for a quick fix we should ask Another entity or Greenspan entity as the laws are written in the same double-speak as their writings and speeches.

Spud Master
(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:37 - ID#273112)
Kitco copyright crap
oh boy. automatic copyrights?

I hearby make all information I post free of copyright protection - people of the planet Earth, feel free to use it as you see fit: Varnishing over your pin-up picture of Madonna, sliding under the cage of "Biggles" the parrot, insulating Bill Clinton's ankles to keep them warm so he can keep his underwear up, etc.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:40 - ID#266105)

I beat a couple of those into rings, a Mercury dime given
to maybe a tiny handed girlfriend and a quarter I wore for while
beaten into shape while 'pulling pockets' in a grinding room
in a paper mill. But skipped the heating part?? What does
that do? I like the grooves yet on quarter/dimes mindful
of clipping/debasing. Still, maybe the Indian head nickel
is my fave, buffalo on back. Catch ya later on reply.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:42 - ID#153102)
If this thing were to come to pass, the debts of nations that are denominated in $ would be lifted if they had gold for payment instead.

The search for gold with which to retire $ debt would be a gold rush worldwide.

A nation with no oil and no gold on its territory would be a poor nation indeed.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:43 - ID#31868)
Ted - always a bottle for you in Cuervo Central
Now as to Another entity and its writings. You tell me after pouring over any of what it has written is any different with Abbot and Costello splitting fifty dollars. Abbot has the money, Costello does not know how to count or what is going on, by the time they are done, Abbot has $40.00 and Costello has $10.00 - point - Abbot does what he wants and lives how he wants and Costello, not knowing any better is happy to have the $10.00 and is having a fine life.

Although, in the original routine, Costello ended up with nothing, fiat paper boys and girls and runs after Abbot and smacks him - war -

nuff said - turn on a TV and you won't have to buy Another entities book.

Oh, one last thing, Abbot is providing Costello a fine life in Abbot's eyes and Costello not knowing any better, is happy.


Spud Master
(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:43 - ID#273112)
thanks for the IMF instantiation date - yes, that too is a dead giveaway.

Our US FedGov is venal & corrupt enough without anyone helping out by shadding the truth.

Now, I must be off ... dealing with a Richter scale 9.8 headache....

(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:52 - ID#39971)
Another ( Gold) Brick In The Wall?

We,the students,express our thanks for your " thoughts ".

We,the students,are open to any thoughts that may unravel

this mystery of gold------oil---------USD--------politics.

We,the students,don't need no " thought control ".

We,the students,are beginning to piece this charade togeather.

All in all it's just ... " ANOTHER BRICK IN THE WALL ".

Thank You

(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:53 - ID#330175)
Tolerant & Spud
Maybe I should copyright the drivel that flows from my mouth too

(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:54 - ID#204210)
TED @ Cape Breton -- off subject
Ted, if you have any masonry needs for your Swans Island house,
see Jeff Gamelin on Route 1, south of Ellsworth ( Freshwater ) . He
is a great guy, sells all kinds of supplies, and is very

(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:56 - ID#31868)
223 - rainy day
Excellent. Oh, by the way, has not the name changed? I think now they call it the Department of Injustice.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 13:58 - ID#341189)
In your senerio as I understand it, gold would only buy oil, nothing else, because the physical gold market would be shut down. How could this be, if no one could convert a currency to gold by buying gold or "buy" a currency by selling gold? In what sense would gold be worth any particular amount in any currency without a market to price it? Or is gold to be traded on black markets in the future?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 14:03 - ID#411149)
223- I don't know where you are but here in North Louisiana
the weather is the pitts. Rain Rain Rain and on Saturday of all days.
More storms and wind and hail predicted. Boy who was it that pissed
El Nino off. And I got to go to Monterey mid-april. Damn!
Ya all come over and we will cook some crawfish and have a party.

Tally Ho

(Sat Mar 07 1998 14:07 - ID#26669)
2BR02B? heating
The heating process is called 'annealing' and useful to realign the crystals of the metal to make it softer. Annealing is best done in semidarkness so the dull red glow is more easily seen. Word has it our fictional goldbug once allegedly annealed a half made silver bowl in the bright sunlight and the damned thing FELL APART because it was heated too much.

Actually my post was just mild satire of government's attempts to micromanage the citizen's affairs. Making such rings is illegal but classically only the most perverted of federal agents would think to enforcing it on such a small scale. But nowadays such excess is the norm in the executive branch of the US government. As Mozel points out, common, traditional behaviors of free citizens are retroactively defined as illegal and bad, justifying more and more excess from central government.

This is a modern story about one of the classic battles between central governments and the people. A much better example would be a good biography of Paul Revere, describing his illegal coin defacement for use in his silverware, or a history of the Colonial silversmiths in general. You know there have been times in history when Bart would have been hauled off and crucified or broken on the rack for having the gall to recycle PMs and cast ingots. Or R.J. would have been imprisoned for his markup, selling coins for more than face value. Think about it.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 14:10 - ID#153102)
If this thing were to come to pass, it will not end with contracts for oil only in gold.

Let us suppose a nation has a valuable knowledge of making things that it shares with none other. but no oil or gold. This nation, too, will demand gold or oil for the things created of its knowledge. And in a year of shortage, the seller of grain will also command oil or gold, if not at all times.

No, there must be an open market for gold to exchange against printed paper credit/debt currencies or the smoldering fire of trade in gold will eventually blaze up and all of them will burn.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 14:19 - ID#347457)
@Delphi on Y2K and EURO software problems
Delphi, I dont know where are you getting your numbers from. I am hearing much more negative story when it comes to Europe ( from government sources and DP professionals working on the issue )
As far as Y2K in Europe versus USA goes, Europe is considered to be way behind the US and much slower to work on it. Its interesting that some numbers coming from some surveys indicate more like reversal of you numbers for companies working on the problem or being ready.

BTW, there is an official Euro site for the EUC and Y2K in Europe, set up by EU

you may go and look, picture painted is not so rosy ( due to competing EU currency projects )

(Sat Mar 07 1998 14:20 - ID#258129)
ANOTHER - a long-term question
In a long run, say 25-30 years from now, when most of oil reserves will be consumed, what do you think the oil price ( in terms of $ or Gold ) will be? 100 times so much? Or almost nothing, because human race will invent or extend other energy sources?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 14:27 - ID#258129)
@Miro - Y2K and EURO software problems
Figures, I posted recently are taken from Dutch weekly "Computable", dd.27 Feb 1998. They publish these figures with reference to research bureau "Neaman Bond Associates". I shall look for Your link and come back on it.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 14:29 - ID#347457)
@Delphi and my response on Y2K
When I said "reversal of your numbers" I ment when you say 65% ready, I am hearing 35%.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 14:32 - ID#26669)
Ray, Bon jour Mon Ami
I'm too far away to drive there on such a wet day but I do have family ties among the Cajuns, Coon @sses and other Louisians of various stripes. Even kin to the poor side of the Long family, in a roundabout way.

You know that Louisiana is the home of the famous Jim Blanchard. I've never met him but he has the reputation of being one of the most experianced and respected coin experts in the US. I found his website not long ago. I've no comercial relationship to him, but the site may be of interest.

Got to go. I've just discovered a terribly wet dog sitting nearby and the smell is incredible. Off to get towels and blow dryer!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 14:37 - ID#28593)
Carl--The paper chase

The one tenet with which one feels reasonably comfortable, is that the world wishes to be de-linked from what they see as the tyranny of the dollar. We do well to remember that--according to that Canadian government briefing paper--the SDR was originally created to replace the ...less than reliable dollar... Aside from Germanys empire building--the World of Euro--there are other nations, other regions, of the world who feel that the US has an obscene privilege which is used with proliferous abandon.

One suspects that the USG, faced with --to cite just one example of the many available--the issuance of new Euro paper, is buying in Treasury debt ( which would explain the wondrous jumps in the daily debt tally ) . The world governments Belief in US paper is--one thinks it safe for us to conclude--in tatters.

Your very astute observation about the fortunes of the IMF relating to the fortunes of the USD is without doubt one harbinger. It is extremely difficult to compose a worthwhile Alert List...were stumbling over unknown, uneven ground, in the dark of a moonless night. There isnt just one pit somewhere in our path, but big boulders, trenches, bunkers and strange animals wandering about--who can see in the dark as we can not. Cheerful thoughts for a week-end, yes?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 14:45 - ID#258129)
Miro, I wrote "Having project at persent time or ready", not "ready".

(Sat Mar 07 1998 14:55 - ID#341214)
223: Thanks for the recipe and the history lesson
223: I'm sure my young daughter would like to try out your ring idea sometime. Thanks for the info. My wife and I were discussing Paul Revere just the other day. She pages me with an 01 if she wants me to call her at our regular phone and with an 02 if I should call her on the cell phone. You know, 1 if by land ( line ) , 2 if by c ( ell phone ) .

(Sat Mar 07 1998 15:05 - ID#341189)
Yes, the way is dark, but you and others here light candles instead of cursing the darkness. Thanks as always.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 15:10 - ID#60253)

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 13:58

Carl ( Another ) ID#341189:

In your scenario as I understand it, gold would only buy oil, nothing else, because the physical gold market would be shut down.

Mr. Carl, This is a misunderstanding. See the words from The Management of Gold, A Simple Tool for the 90s . They show how the price for metal is now made by the paper gold market. It is this paper gold market that will be destroyed, first! As Mr. Mozel has shown in his post of Date: Mon Feb 16 1998 17:55 mozel ( The United States Empire )


The second threat is, I believe, more out of sight, but more serious. This is the threat from derivatives, the $100 Trillion crazy aunt in the attic. 

Please reread his write. When a world oil currency is formed, it will bring forth a great turmoil. Even physical gold will not trade for some time! But, as paper loses are resolved, the governments will form some kind of real gold market. Perhaps, the BIS will make the market for the world, in much the same way as the LBMA. Understand, the new gold physical market will be not as a commodity, but as a free currency!

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 14:10

mozel ( @Another ) ID#153102:

If this thing were to come to pass, it will not end with contracts for oil only in gold.

Mozel, you have a good grasp for the currency issue. I ask you, can you see the benefits?

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 14:20

Delphi ( ANOTHER - a long-term question ) ID#258129:

Mr. Delphi, In the time from where you speak, gold will have become as, common use for all! No country or entity will not use it for all trade. Do you not agree, it is good for our families and children?

Mr. Mick
(Sat Mar 07 1998 15:17 - ID#345321)
Spud, fundaMETAList - I'll take $500 per hour any day...............
benefits or no benefits!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 15:18 - ID#335190)
Hockey in Indonesia @ "OFFSIDE" called by referee IMF. Causing food riots
Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.
March 7, 1998
............By Phil Smith

JAKARTA, March 7 ( Reuters ) - Indonesia is getting close to the edge in its face-off with the IMF and other donor nations involved in a $40 billion rescue package, financial analysts said on Saturday.

In the latest twist to the saga, which has seen much sabre rattling on both sides, the International Monetary Fund has said its board would not discuss Indonesia's reform programme before April.

But senior banking sources have said the disbursement delay was due to procedural issues, of which both sides were aware.

"The language is definitely getting tougher," said one Singapore-based analyst who declined to be named. "Frankly...this is turning into a face-off situation which could get ugly...Indonesians aren't doing themselves any favours as regards market confidence and that is something they desperately need."

"People understand that their pride must be hurt, but you don't bite the hand that feeds you, and if you think about it, after the food riots we've seen in Indonesia, that's exactly what they are doing," he said.

President Suharto's second son Bambang Trihatmodjo also chipped in and tweaked the tension by saying the government was likely to decide whether or not to implement a currency board around the end of March.

"The fact that the second disbursement is not going to be made according to the original deadline of March 15 does not imply that the disbursement has been cancelled," the IMF's country representative in Jakarta Kadhim Al-Eyd said.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 15:18 - ID#238295)
Paper Gold
Another: Correct me if I'm wrong, but I get the impression that you expect the paper gold market to break down very quickly when the time is right. What do you see as the likely trigger for this anticipated golden earthquake?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 15:21 - ID#411149)
223- I got one of them dogs too, right here by the fire place.
I was in Winnfield yesterday with one of my Long friends, home of
the Long family. Jim blanchard is a good friend of mine we both gona make another killin offa DROOY.
You keep that good ole dog dry now.

Tally Ho

(Sat Mar 07 1998 15:22 - ID#60253)
I must be gone for a short time. Please return for discussion at appx. 19:00 CST/USA. A good amount of time will be for this talk!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 15:25 - ID#60253)
Mr. Old Gold, I have many thoughts for your reason, but must make connections from far. Prehaps, 19:00? thank you

(Sat Mar 07 1998 15:32 - ID#28593)
Reciprocity. Believe it. Our small cyber-village makes a
very lovely golden template for the golden world that
shall be. And that is a HAPPY thought, not only for the
week-end, but for the world! {:- )

(Sat Mar 07 1998 15:34 - ID#335190)
Friedrich @ "Hello Euro, Goodbye Dollar", "odds were now overwhelming"
Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.
March 7, 1998
......Dresdner Bank says Euro will have big impact on U.S.

ACAPULCO, Mexico ( Reuters ) - Dresdner Bank AG chief economist and general manager Klaus Friedrich said Saturday he expected the introduction of a single European currency to have a major impact on U.S. economic policy.

"The Euro will mean the end to the policy of benign neglect with regard to the dollar," Friedrich told a Mexican bankers convention in the Pacific coast resort of Acapulco.

"That policy has brought considerable benefits to the United States and enabled the United States ... to command decades of enormous external current account deficits by printing more of its own money."

Friedrich said that with a viable alternative as a trading and reserve currency, "the U.S. will have to think about eventually balancing its current account or the market might do it through a devaluation of the dollar."

The European council of ministers is due to decide on May 2 which countries will participate in European Monetary Union

Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.
March 7, 1998

New York stock market to launch foreign share program

BOCA RATON, Fla. ( Reuters ) - About a dozen European firms will begin trading their original shares on the New York Stock Exchange in a pilot program that could lead to trading in multiple currencies and an extension of the trading day, NYSE President Richard Grasso said Saturday.

The pilot program is expected to begin in 12 to 18 months, Grasso told the Bond Market Association at its annual meeting in Florida. He said the NYSE had already begun negotiations with firms, whom he refused to identify, in the United Kingdom, Italy, Germany and France about listing their shares.

"We will choose between 10 and 15 existing non-U.S. listings in a pilot program where we will trade, in addition to their depository receipts, ... their ordinary shares denominated in U.S. dollars," Grasso said.
Some 344 of the 3,000 firms listed on the NYSE are non-U.S. companies, but they do not now trade their ordinary shares

"We will not depart from our tradition of floor-based agency auction price discovery," Grasso said. "We will stretch the clocks by creating shifts."

(Sat Mar 07 1998 15:37 - ID#258129)
@Miro - Y2K and EURO software problems
I have looked your link. Regular info on this items. In my view, Y2K problem potentially most dangerous in two situations:
1. Hardware chips ( not necessary in computers, but mostly in other devices, like credit card readers ) are out of date and do not understand right 2000+ dates. There was an article in one of our local newspapers, how someone had a trouble to pay at the gas station - car was tanked, no cash in a pocket, valid credit card with expiration after 01.01.2000 . I have my Visa card replaced on Feb 1, expiration date on a new one is 01/01 - thats Jan 2001. I have made 6 or 7 transactions today with this card without any trouble. For sure, there are some devices around that will not accept my new card and how many of them are there - who knows? But till now I have no negative experience.
2. Software - mainly that is about legacy systems of big enterprises, usually - "home brewed". Smaller companies usually consider too expensive to develop own tailor-made projects and buy some ready packages. Producers of such packages are now working hard indeed: they do not want to have liability problems. While big ones are in official statistics - who care to ask a company with 10 - 20 employees?
3. Regarding EURO - as You know, next January it supposed to start. But only business-to-business transactions will be covered at this first stage. All cash transactions, salary payments, etc. remains in national currencies. So, it affect mostly banks, insurance offices and accountancy firms ( who provide bookkeeping for most of small and medium size businesses ) . Besides, these small and medium businesses produce 70% of GDP in Holland while we have such well known big enterprises as Shell, Phillips, Unilever and others.
Of course, the problem is there, but in my opinion its importance is overvalued. Why - very simple - there are many software companies that are interested in it. They make enormous profits now ( look for example, figures of our Dutch "Baan" company - you can find them in NASDAQ ) . And all such companies are doing all possible to present importance of this kind of services to potential customers, who are not that professional in all this computer stuff. Kind of "mafia". This is bit different point of view on Y2K and EURO software problems, and IMO this point of view has a right to exist.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 15:45 - ID#341214)
Spud Master: Sing it Bro
Spud Master: Regarding your 13:21 post, I share many of your thoughts. I've often thought that one of the biggest hints non-programmers can look at about Y2K and it's aftermath is what the lawyers ( Tort, no offense ) are doing to prepare themselves for Y2K. Everything I've read suggests that they are gearing up for one of the biggest feeding frenzys in all of history. These people are not stupid. They KNOW what's coming. I can only hope that Y2K does not unfold like I think it will and that all their plans get tripped up. However, I don't make my plans based on hope but on cold, hard facts and 25+ years of experience.

May it be your good fortune to land system rewrites ( new code ) instead of system repair ( maintenance ) contracts.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 15:47 - ID#258129)
Thank You for answer - "gold will have become as, common use for all! No country or entity will not use it for all trade. Do you not agree, it is good for our families and children?"
Well, using Gold as common currency in future might be good for our families and children, but my question was another: what will happened with oil price in long term, when reserves of it will be mostly consumed? Will it be sky-high, or people will replace it with other energy source and oil price will lost any influence on world markets?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 15:54 - ID#255284)
The golden reciprocal. 1+1+kitco = *


My Anthropology Prof used to say reciprocity was the social glue that bounds individuals to society, and held a society together. Destroy reciprocity ( The IK in N Sudan ) and the society will die.

After all, is this not what gold means to us here? Is not gold the symbol of a past social interaction? Is not gold a physical token of reciprocity, of a trade extending beyond the kith & kin to a stranger? Does not this token endure beyond the present to humans unknown and unborn? If I accept gold, I do it in the expectation that ANOTHER, a stranger will accept gold too in the future.

This expectation of reciprocity has been well-founded and held true for at least 5000 years. Is it reasonable to suppose that this trust in gold can be overturned in a generation of Western Fiat currency? Meanwhile. the rest of the world has never doubted "The Golden Reciprocal."

No, it is the European CBs who have had the wool pulled over their eyes.

Many of us at kitco look forward to sheering a mob of CBankers.


a bit of a dag.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 15:59 - ID#255284)
asterix & obelix
The * looked like "infinity" on my Mac

(Sat Mar 07 1998 16:06 - ID#252127)
Ahh to play world policeman/woman in the affairs of sovereign nations

First, Thank you Mr. ANOTHER your 13:08 and 13:19 were very enlightening.
The people of the world just love us, to our leaders it's the wielding of power over sovereign nations, at only the cost of paper, to the citizen it's the waging of war, at the cost of lives.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 16:10 - ID#330175)
Aurator........................................and GINSENG...........................*go Gold*
Thankx bro~~~~~~~~

(Sat Mar 07 1998 16:13 - ID#370218)
Who Do You Trust-Johnny-Ed -ANOTHER???
Answer: It does not MATTER!! My fathers father was not a trusting soul. He did not even trust my grandmother. This was wise, she always lied to him anyway-with good cause because grandpa was found of the sauce and spent any money he could find on beer ( it must be hereditary-I own a tapper ) .My father, while trusting of my saintly mother was likewise not a trusting soul. Since ANOTHER is not known to me I can not trust his words. I, as my father and his father, am not a trusting soul. Especially of one I know not ( I'm on a roll, hope I get to 100 words ) .I would no more trust ANOTHER for investment advice than I would Johnny Carson or his sidekick Ed. However, I do believe the derivatives market, in the trillions of trillions of dollars will implode when the financial crunch hits. That cruch started last year and I believe, but could not prove, that Korean banks in the derivative market have already assured the collapse of many, many large financial institutions. Korea will never repay the billions and billions which these banks owe, not even with IMF money. Gold is at or near it's bottom, global financial crisis looms before us, the US and European markets are so overpriced it makes 1929 look like a picnic and the moral leadership in all the world is abysmal. Who needs the illusion of an oil/gold standard to be smart enough to buy some gold and silver to cover your ass ( ets ) ? No one can predict the future! Will there be a worldwide financial collapse-who knows. I do know all of my thundering herd fellow boomers don't have a clue and they think I'm nuts. Time will tell and patience is a great virtue. The herd is NEVER EVER right. That is why wealth has always been confined to the few and not the herd. If ANOTHER is correct I thank that person for their THOUGHTS, if not it really does not matter. Gold will go up and the stock market down-the only question is when. Want a guess-I'll give you one - Before December 1998, probably between March and June. This is no prediction-it's an outright GUESS. Earnings reports will start the herd moving-once started there is no out. They all stayed in the market to avoid paying taxes on their gains -won't be a problem any more. ANOTHER this is the last place on earth that needs ANOTHER reason to buy gold -call Andy Smith, maybe you can talk him into buying gold. I think most here are already in physical to some extent. GO CEF. As always your unknown friend. Tom

(Sat Mar 07 1998 16:13 - ID#330175)
EB.........and 'the answer' is we are both----------------------
brain dead.........

(Sat Mar 07 1998 16:15 - ID#341214)
All: Hello, my name is fundaMETAList and I'm a "Millennium Moaner"
All: Hey folks. I just came across a Y2K prediction that has already come true. I was rereading Peter de Jager Doomsday 2000 article from 1993 and found this:

The next seven years will be filled with dire predictions. "You are going to become very, very tired of millennium moaners telling you that your software will fail as it enters the new millennium," says Nicholas Zvegintzov, publisher of Software Maintenance News. "But be patient with them. There really is something to be said for them."

(Sat Mar 07 1998 16:17 - ID#255284)
Is there ale about?
by "tapper" do you mean taphouse, pub?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 16:18 - ID#335190)
He wanted back pay @ Managers were blasted
Copyright  1998, Canoe Limited Partnership.

**He wanted back pay, contending he should have been paid more for the computer job than his accountant's salary.***

March 7, 1998

Man returns from sick leave to gun down bosses

NEWINGTON, Conn. ( AP )  Matthew Beck was a changed man when he returned to work at Connecticut state lottery headquarters from a four-month, stress-related leave.

A blue sticker on their front door reads: "Warning: Trespassers will be shot. Survivors will be shot again."

He shot Logan and stabbed him with a butcher knife.

"Don't kill me, don't kill me," a law-enforcement source said. Beck told him: "Aw, shut up" and shot him, the source said.

pointed it at Mlynarczyk and told her: "Bye, bye" before shooting her three times.

"He didn't come in and just start blasting. He planned it," Donahue said. "He was definitely after the managers."

(Sat Mar 07 1998 16:30 - ID#370218)
THANK YOU for being able to find the only part of my post of any worth. I referenced a refrigeration unit, on wheel, with it's own CO2 tank which holds one 16 gallon ( US ) keg of beer. Sits next to the back door in the kitchen-always an extra glass on top to be filled if so desired. Present liquid is Bud-Here's to you. Tom

(Sat Mar 07 1998 16:32 - ID#342282)
Another re "gold in the ground"
I have just read your very interesting thoughts. The question I would appreciate comments on is the status of the gold mine. Especially any not yet in production. There are 2 aspects here- A well blocked out reserve that can be reasonably evaluated; and the prospect which has initial work not completed, but professionally promising. It is obvious that the cost of production has to be below the values, but what's not so obvious to me is ( beyond routine share issues ) how will reserve values fit the gold and currency markets and what type situation is all this related to your thoughts for the future ( which may not be that far off ) . Many thanx. Charlie

(Sat Mar 07 1998 16:33 - ID#31868)
So, after all this time, if everybody had just payed more attention to Mr. T we would not have to think so hard. Hmmmmmmmmmmm back to Abbot and Costello.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 16:39 - ID#287280)
Aurator--The golden reciprocal. 1+1+kitco = *
Can you hear the applause! Beautifully expressed Aurator.
La Forza del Destino!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 16:39 - ID#348169)
Hello All,
I thought I better clear something up from my chat with some Australian friends here last night. Although Pork Bellies are quite low, I don't want anybody out and out buying them on account of anything I said as I am not recommending an out and out buy at this point. It just struck me today that someone might act on my innuendoes of last night as about a year and a half ago, I did, on this forum, give the nod to shorting them when they were near their recent high of $1.02-1.05 and I'm sure some remember that fact. Here then, in part, is my most recent letter to EB on this subject and on Gold.
"...I've played the bellies quite a few times over the years and man are
those porkers greasy!!! They are about THE most dangerous commodity to
go outright long or short on. ... AAR - Historically, at least in my recent recollection, I believe
that about $.60 seems to be the median price. Less is cheap, more
expensive. For last few months it seems that bears are very much in
control and I have seen this end up below $.30. Reports I read say that
due to mild ( also no winterkill ) weather on plains livestock is coming
to market fatter than normal. There is going to be low beef prices and
so pork has to get even cheaper to compete. That's the storey that I
know, but as we both know the futures market will eventually bottom and
bounce back. That's why I said in my message to you it would be nice to
be in at the exact low point. I don't think its yet.
Gold is hanging in nicely above its 200 day moving average since it
soared through it giving a buy signal a few weeks ago. As long as it
holds above that number ( presently at about $287. ) I am in the bullish
camp. Don't be late in '98!"
And BTW ALL - I'm still drinking a lot of O.J just like EB kept telling us to do last year, ...or let me see, was that somebody else??
Hepcat! Pass the Ginkgo!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 16:45 - ID#26793)
Bankers are always looking for a black hole into which they can pour money

(Sat Mar 07 1998 16:52 - ID#26793)
Arab attempts to maintain oil prices

(Sat Mar 07 1998 16:52 - ID#341214)
All: IT Manager's Approach to Y2K
"I don't think the general public really understands how bad the
situation is," said Oswego County's Hogan. "Hopefully, the year
2000 won't come, because I don't know that anyone will be ready for it."

Too bad this really isn't funny. I found this quote at the following
link in an article about New York:

(Sat Mar 07 1998 16:57 - ID#26793)
Crude oil prices below $15; a four year low

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:02 - ID#26793)
Oil prices continue slide; $12 per barrell seen

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:08 - ID#26793)
Real cost of oil is $100 when you include defense costs for Middle East

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:11 - ID#252127)

I have deduced, from your many excellent posts, that 'when' gold is revalued upwards^ in relationship to things; that governments and those who hold paper issued by the mining cos. would plunder for gain, the properties of these companies.
My feelings are that holders of paper would try and succeed, upon those assets of miners with weak balance sheets, but most governments would keep hands off shareholder and private companies allowing them to do this specialized work, but perhaps burden them with special taxation.
Is my reasoning correct?
I thank you for providing our group with insights into this very complicated subject.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:14 - ID#28593)
Protesting too much?
German anger over Turkish PM's 'insult'

The German government reacted forcefully and with UNUSUAL anger yesterday to accusations from Mesut Yilmaz, Turkey's prime minister, that it was pursuing a policy of Lebensraum for the German people in eastern and central Europe.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:14 - ID#252150)
Franco & Euro Nevada@An incredible story
I caught Pierre Lassonde on investors-on-line on TV ( cdn ) this morning. I don't know how many own or are familiar with these Cos, but it really is incredible how they got started & how successful they have become. Lassonde & his partner run both of them. Apparently he got the idea for a AU royalty Co in the early 80s & along with his partner & a few investors
started on a shoestring looking for promising properties. Their big break came when their geologist was in Reno & noticed a small box ad looking for investors to invest in the goldstrike mine, which was located in an area that was thought to have been mined out. Of course that mine became the first of many extremely successful mines in Nevada. They pioneered open pit mining. From such humble beginnings they have become phenomenely successful by putting up seed money & then collecting net smelter royalties. They have collected many 100s of millions just from ABX alone. Lassonde is now worth a fortune as he owns 15% of the shares in both Cos. They are now sitting on 850 mil U.S. cash & are looking @ several promising properties. Lassonde expects the POG to trade around 300 until
the decisions about EMU--reserves etc. are out of the way & then expects it to start moving up, later in the year.

It's pretty amazing, & a never ending source of irritation to the U.S. politicians & bureaucrats that the Canadians got into Nevada early & bought the properties for next to nothing, & are paying very low roayalties to the Fed & State govt's. They keep trying to change the rules but with the help of G. Bush & other powerful lobbyists, ABX has managed to maintain the status quo till now.

I owned FN a in 96 & made a pretty good gain on it. I'm a little less positive on them now because they have a investments in oil & gas properties in western Canada. EN is the purer play.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:17 - ID#403277)

Bart: I have been completely out of touch for a week. What's with all the copyrights? Anything else new and different?

All: I have just returned from a week in the heart of Canadfa's exhilarating new diamond play. If there are any of you not familiar, you can get info right here on the diamond page.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:18 - ID#26793)
New NASDAQ rules will impact shares trading under $1.00

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:25 - ID#26793)
IMF endorses Swiss plan to sever the link between the Swiss franc and gold

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:28 - ID#238295)
oil prices
Donald: Much of the press comment on the oil price slide is grossly misleading and aimed at obscuring truth. Lower demand in Asia is an important factor, but even more important is that the regimes in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait -- complete US puppets both of them, especially Kuwait -- are following US orders to knock prices down so as to miminimize the impact of the strong dollar on oil consuming nations and prop up international financial markets.

Good for the US and the international financial markets, but very bad for the Arab masses who would benefit greatly from higher oil prices and more investment at home instead of in US stocks and bonds. What they say is unimportant; look at what they do.

Bottom line -- US does not tolerate any regime in a big oil producing nation that puts the interests of its own people ahead of the international financial markets. That is the real reason for the hostility to SH.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:28 - ID#317193)
Green Valley, Arizona-Sales pitch
I will be in Green Valley, AZ from 3/11 through 3/16- anybody from there that can update me on the goings on? Will be at the Best Western, 625-2250, just leave a message for Tom Young. I'll call and you can update me on gold and the herd in the evenings after 36 holes of gold, dinner and the NCAA. Now the sales pitch-I'm offering for US$00.05 each to provide my best guess on the location of all of my lost golf balls in the desert. Considering the supply/demand ratio I should collect a lot of nickels. Anybody got any golf balls I can borrow for a week or a little longer? Seriously, call and assure me my April calls are not even worth $.10 on 3/13. Tom

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:29 - ID#26793)
Argentina says it will not be hurt by a Brazilian devaluation. (huh?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:31 - ID#348286)
fundaMETAList 16:52 and All: I agree with that statement.
Many here don't ( yet ) buy into a developing crises scenario.
The cost is estimated at 600 Billion + a possible 2 Trillion in litigation - compare this to the new ECB reserves, reported to be a paltry 55 Billion!
I know that in Canadian IT professionals are being raided by the desperate US corporations.
Most companies in Canada have done NOTHING to retain their employees, the ones that are supposed to fix the Y2K problem.
My best guess is that these companies will be paying HUGE hourly wages to any available IT pros, once the axe falls.
Contractors are currently signing short contracts.
Many companies will breeze through Y2K, but even if 40% realize their late and won't make it, it's enough to overwhelm the industry.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:36 - ID#26793)
@Old Gold
Thanks for the comment. My reason for posting the oil price information was to get some discussion going on the comments of Another. I have been saying since I have been here at Kitco, nearly a year now, that everything is priced in ounces gold whether we like it or not. Another just wants to make it official. That is OK with me. I am ready. Most are not.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:36 - ID#317193)
IMF not found of gold??? BIS found of gold. Swiss found of gold. Rumors will be of no avail when the herd is spooked by the earnings reports and FEAR a loss of capital. A thought that has, heretofore, not risen in the mind of the 125% equity home loan invest the proceeds in the market herd.Tom

Charles Keeling
(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:38 - ID#344225)
I have read all of anothers posts just
recently. Many of the things that he says
are credible. I do, however, admit to some
confusion. Perhaps I need to go back & read
all of his posts one more time.

1 ) Before Derivatives the cost of oil was
based on the dollar. I believe that this
was about 15 years ago.

2 ) Dollars were then used by some of the oil
countrys to buy gold and take physical
delivery. A pretty cumbersome process.

3 ) I remember when oil countrys ( the Saudi's
in particular ) switched to London about
the time that derivatives came on the
scene. The word then was that oil was
pegged to the Pound.

4 ) Delivering gold to and from the vaults
of the Oil Sheikdoms was no dooubt a
costly, tedious and cumbersome process.
Gold Deriviatives probably did replace
that process sometime in 1983.

5 ) During the last half of 1987 there were
some unusually HEAVY transfers of gold
on the London market. Could it be that
this was the oil countrys cashing in some
of their gold backed derivatives and
taking physical delivery?

6 ) Oil for gold does make a lot of sense to
the oil countrys. One commodity ( oil )
exchanged for another commodity ( gold )
would leave the Arab States with a store
of value when their oil is finally
depleted. And, in the interim, posession
of gold would furnish protection from
currency fluctuations with all of the
countrys that they deal with.

7. Perhaps the Arab States have taken a hard
look at how much gold is available world
wide, and compared that to the amount of
gold backed derivatives that are in

8. It it possible that the last of those
holding gold derivatives will NOT be able
to take delivery?

9. A lower POG has triggered the purchase of
GOLD by the general populace. Could that
be worrying to those who hold Gold
Derivatives? Has it become a race between
the general populace and the Arab States
to see who gets to the gold window first?

10. Is this the reason that the Worlds Central
Banks have done everything possiible to
drive down the POG these past two years?
Is it possible that the intentions of the
CB's is to show the general populace that
it does not pay to hold gold? After all,
the talking heads on financial TV continue
to adivse one and all that "gold doesn't
pay interest and it doesn't play it's
usual role as a hedge against inflation
or a place to park your assets in times of

Enough TV can put a spin on anything since
most investors are mesmorized by the boob

Most investors have allowed the "spin" to
convice them that "LONG TERM" and
"AVERAGE IN" will work. Wall Street has
forgotten about BEAR markets.

In the meantime, the DOW/GOLD ratio is
hovering over that of 1929, and very close to
that of 1966.

AG did mention in one of his Hawkins speeches
that DERIVATIVES were a troublesome factor
in the economy that requires further study.
I have heard nothing further on that issue
from him to clarify what he meant.

IMHO I think that the "SPIN" that we are
seeing and the concerted action of the CB's
during the last year or so are indicative of

Also, what is this easy acceptance to the
great lie of a balanced budget when we are
already in the hole 180 billion this year?

Is ANOTHER the greatest "spin doctor" that we
have ever seen, or do I need to spend another
week or two studying his posts?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:41 - ID#26793)
The nerve of those creeps! The IMF of all people, now passing the hat to pour more money into a black hole. Telling the Swiss, of all people, how to run a country? They gotta be kidding.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:42 - ID#252150)
Panda@Tech stocks in La La land
I've come to the conclusion that the valuations have become completely divorced from reality. Even now, Intel, MSFT, Dell, Motorola etc are grossly overvalued. It does'nt matter any more. The Investment Houses, in collusion with the Analysts, Brokers, mkt makers & other big players, have become so adept at moving them up & down, that these cycles can go on forever.

Unfortunately, I'm such a slow learner that I shorted Mitel last week & am once again on the losing side.

Charles Keeling
(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:44 - ID#344225)
@ALL Correction:: 1987 Should read 1997
A correction to my post...

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:48 - ID#26793)
IMF praises high Czech interest rates

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:48 - ID#329157)
Pfennig for Thoughts - Pfennig Thoughts, Chuck Butler:

"Japan announced that the next Tankan report will be issued on April 2... Will we have seen a new stimulus package by then?... I warn you that the Nikkei and the Yen had better hope so, because after the Tankan shows how dreadful the economy is..."

I think, as Mr. Butler has already suggested, that a lot of people will be watching this Tankan report. The stop-go performance of recent weeks as to whether Japan will introduce strong economic stimulus measures or not, which has been driving the Nikkei up and down like a tart's drawers, may finally be resolved on April 2nd. Tankan...Tanking? I see much talk of stimulus measures, and more talk about using the postal savings system to prop up banks, but this debate has now been going on for some months and sooner or later investors are going to lose faith in the promises. Actual tangible measures, it seems to me, have fallen short, and R. Rubin continues to hector Japan about measures needing to be taken such as opening up the market and stimulating domestic demand. The markets' reaction to the next Tankan report may be very interesting.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:50 - ID#339265)
ANOTHER presents an interesting theory regarding the oil/gold relationship in our world. I am not so sure the relationship is quite as simplistic as he describes. However, I do agree that there is a direct relationship between oil markets and paper markets. As a result of the surge in oil prices ( during the Seventies ) , petroleum companies evolved into the wealthiest corporations in America. Thereafter, these companies became primary sources of capital lending for all variety of industrial projects through the Eighties. A high price of oil became the linchpin of the American economy. Much of the paper wealth of this country originated on the back of the high price of oil; conversely, the high price of oil resulted in the exponential increase in paper wealth created over the last two decades. Any sudden decrease in oil prices will lead to a paper debacle in that the oil collateral backing a huge supply of paper assets will be devalued. We are witnessing an oil market collapse as the first stage to a stock market collapse. If there is a Mid-Eastern war, it will have nothing to do with chemical weapons or Hussein; rather, it will be America's attempt to maintain the oil price at a high level and preclude the deflationary debacle that would result otherwise. In other words, Mid-East war presents the only possible salvation to short-term economic debacle.

Since the likelihood of war is receding, then the likelihood of oil price collapse increases, thereby ushering in a paper market collapse.

Once the American stock market collapses ( along with the Dollar ) , there will be significant instablility in the world financial markets. The net effect: essential commodities will revalue themselves upward ( in U.S. dollar terms ) in an astounding slingshot effect.

Ergo, it is imperative that, if the paper bubble is to burst, it must occur at a time when oil demand is at its least critical point. Inevitably, a financial market debacle will go hand in hand with a dollar debacle. The sudden revaluation in oil prices would be disastrous if said phenonomenon were to occur in the Fall or Winter months.

With oil prices going through the roof ( as a result of a dollar debacle ) , then many Americans would be put in a position of simply not being able to heat their homes.

The paper bubble is ready to burst...and the safest point, from the perspective of domestic national security, is to allow it to burst now as heating oil is not a seasonal requisite. Once the turmoil subsides, then the government should be in a better position to impose oil rationing or price controls, etc. to ensure Americans have sufficient heating oil for the Fall and Winter seasons.

These thoughts arrived to me today on the tail of a Westward wind....

F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:50 - ID#348286)
@Y2K - AND THIS IS IN THE USA: At present rate, only 63 percent of systems will be fixed by 2000 !!!
"There are almost 8,000 mission-critical computer systems in the executive branch. At the current rate of progress, only 63 percent of those systems will be ready for the date change when the clocks roll over less that 677 days from now."

MARCH 4, 1998 . . . 18:47 EST
Rep. Horn gives feds a failing grade for Y2K effort

At present rate, only 63 percent of systems will be fixed by 2000


Despite claims that it will avoid computer malfunctions in the next millennium, the Clinton administration received a failing grade today from Rep. Stephen Horn ( R-Calif. ) .

Horn, who as chairman of the House Subcommittee on Government Management, Information and Technology has been following how agencies are managing the Year 2000 problem, gave the federal government a D-minus for its effort so far in fixing its computer systems so that they can properly process dates after 1999.

The departments of Defense, Transportation, State, Labor and Education all received an F. The Energy Department, Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Agency for International Development received a D-minus, and the departments of Health and Human Services, Treasury and NASA received a D.

"Most are grades you would not want to take home to your parents," Horn said.

He also stressed the need for a "governmentwide focus" on agencies with large numbers of computer systems, such as DOD, which has "over one-third of all the mission-critical computer systems in the entire federal government."

Three agencies received an A: the Social Security Administration, the Department of Veterans Affairs and the National Science Foundation.

Rep. Tom Davis ( R-Va. ) , who is a member of the committee and whose Northern Virginia district includes many of the information technology vendors that do business with the federal government, said the costs to reprogram the government's computers are increasing because people who can fix the computer code problems "are in heavy demand at this time."

Davis also expressed disappointment that last year agencies procured $11 billion worth of IT that was not Year 2000-compliant. Last month President Clinton established the President's Year 2000 Conversion Council and appointed former Office of Management and Budget deputy director of management John Koskinen to head the group. But Horn said, "Even Koskinen's skills, however, do not change the fact that the executive branch is still on the edge of failure. There are almost 8,000 mission-critical computer systems in the executive branch. At the current rate of progress, only 63 percent of those systems will be ready for the date change when the clocks roll over less that 677 days from now."

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:54 - ID#26793)
New Asian turmoil sends Australian dollar plunging

(Sat Mar 07 1998 17:58 - ID#238295)
I heard today that Wall Street bigwigs are growing concerned about extortion and kidnapping attempts and have persuaded the mayor to open a new police precinct in the finacial district staffed by 200 officers. BTW, this is one of the safest districts in the city today

I supect these people know the bull is on its last legs and are realistically anticipating a tremendous backlash from the shorn sheep when the music stops. People will be coming after them with a pack of dogs.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 18:01 - ID#26793)
@Farfel...Trigger? Intel, Motorola, Compaq...three strikes; you're out!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 18:01 - ID#348286)
@Y2K - MoReY2K - Original cost was $2.3 Billion, then 4, then 10. Im now hearing FORTY BILLION!
Thursday, March 5, 1998
House Panel Warns of Year 2000 Computer Crisis
By RALPH VARTABEDIAN, Times Staff Writer

WASHINGTON--In the most dramatic warning yet of an impending computer crisis in the government, a congressional panel said Wednesday that 37% of the most critical computers used by federal agencies will not be updated in time to handle dates in the year 2000 and will be subject to widespread failure.
The estimate calls into sharp question past assurances by the Clinton administration that it is moving quickly enough to avert serious outages that could undermine military forces, benefit payments to the public and the nation's air transportation system, among much else.
With just 666 days left until the year 2000, a slew of reports and investigations in recent weeks have raised serious concerns that the government is not acting fast enough to avoid serious problems.
The executive branch has almost 8,000 computer systems that are considered critical to government operations, and nearly 3,000 of them will not be able to read dates in 2000, according to the report issued by the subcommittee on government management, information and technology of the House Government Operations and Oversight Committee. The computers will either shut down or spew out erroneous data.
California Rep. Steve Horn ( R-Long Beach ) , the subcommittee chairman who has taken the lead in Congress in solving the problem, issued a "report card" along with the new report that gave the federal government a D-minus in its efforts to avoid a crisis.
"Failure is intolerable," Horn said.
The year 2000 problem results from widespread use of two digits in software to designate years. Computers assume that every year starts with "19," so when 2000 arrives, they will interpret "00" as the year 1900.
President Clinton created a White House panel on Feb. 4 to lead the government's efforts in solving the problem and appointed John A. Koskinen, former deputy director at the Office of Management and Budget, to lead the effort. But Koskinen has not yet started his work, and his panel has hardly gotten off the ground after 28 days, according to Horn's staff.
White House press officials did not respond to queries about Horn's report.
As the scope of the government's problems become clearer, the cost to avert a crisis is also growing. The Office of Management and Budget had long insisted that the problem would cost a little more than $2.3 billion to fix, but that figure has been growing over the last year. Its most recent estimate pegged the cost at $4 billion.
Horn estimated that the government is facing a cost of $10 billion.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 18:05 - ID#257148)

" using the postal savings system to prop up banks" sounds like Gresham's law ain't been repealed.


A Silver Chalice doffed to you for 13:29!


Explain, plse, to this distant antipodean: "1 by land and 2 by sea", I sense a tale of freedom?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 18:06 - ID#252150)
Another Enigma from ANOTHER
If I got the gist of his 13:08, & I don't have much confidence that I did, then the CBs hold all the cards, so long as they are backed by the U.S. Military, & I probably should sell my few Au holdings on Mon. morning, because I cannot forsee a situation where a high POG will be bebeficial to Govt's who have to depend on fiat currencies in order to maintain their control.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 18:07 - ID#238295)
Farfel: You have it wrong on oil. US wants prices low, not high at this time. Otherwise strong dollar would be intolerable to Japan and other big oil importers. If US really wanted to prop up oil prices -- KUWAIT AND SAUDI ARABIA WOULD BE ANNOUNCING BIG CUTS IN PRODUCTION.

Of course they don't want prices too low either. But I suspect that $15 brent is just fine with Greenspan and Rubin at this juncture. US will not support substantially higher prices as long as the dollar is strong.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 18:16 - ID#280245)
Aurator--1 by land, 2 by sea
US first early warning system--Paul Revere ( SILVER Bart, so
this is a 'legal' post ) Ride... Someone here, I have no doubt, can
fill this outline 'in'! ( it's all a remember [red face] )

(Sat Mar 07 1998 18:17 - ID#238295)
sign of the times
I also hear that the Wall Street elite -- many of whom recieved bonuses of $25 million or more last year -- are ordering $10,000 bottles of wine for lunch.

Gold being given away, but $10,000 is not too much for a bottle of wine.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 18:18 - ID#317193)
Charles Keeling@17:38
You need not re-read Anothers posts. Simply see with your minds eye that which has occurred which will be the causation of future events. DUCK the sh__ is going to hit the fan. The only question is when. Another is correct in one respect, wealth in gold IS- it need not earn a rate of interst to have the value it has had since the dawn of time. History really is a great teacher-original thoughts, for mankind, are rather rare. Notwithstanding all rumors, gold is the measure of a persons worth. Always has been, always will be. Western society just has forgotten this-for a while. Tom

(Sat Mar 07 1998 18:19 - ID#243180)
What do you know of the Dinar comments posted from the Islamic Mint ?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 18:21 - ID#252150)
Old Gold@Oil prices
I think it's pretty obvious that there are 2 main reasons for the lower oil prices:
( 1 ) The SEAsian situation--they can't even afford it at these prices let alone $20.

( 2 ) OPEC ( mainly Saudi Arabia ) wants to get supply down by forcing marginal producers to shut down & others to cut back drastically on exploration. This is already working quite well as many E/Ps have announced big cutbacks in their budgets.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 18:23 - ID#30116)
James -- The techs are under going some 'shock' treatment at the moment, but more to the point, the XAU/CRB chart seems to be saying that gold/silver stocks are oversold in comparison to the CRB index. One can only hope... for a better balance in AU/AG share prices....

(Sat Mar 07 1998 18:30 - ID#238295)
oil pricing
James: You are falling for the myth that Saudi Arabia really is an independent country that makes its own policy. This is not true. They follow Washington orders slavishly on oil pricing and have done so for decades. This corrupt and tyrannical regime would not last long with US backing.

Rubin and Greenspan know that the international reaction to the strong dollar is muted by low oil prices. Low oil prices also helps keep the bond bears at bay.

Bully Beef
(Sat Mar 07 1998 18:39 - ID#259282)
Another reminds me of a guy on another chat line with the initials L.H.
I saw a writer who went from pidgeon English ( Russian Style ) to perfect English all in the same post on another chat line. He went by the handle of Ludvic Houchu. He operated the same style of dialogue and was indeed very good. Seemingly in depth knowledge of the topic at hand. Gold related in fact. That "another" guy spends a lot of time ,thought and writing skill. I couldn't say if he knows S=it from a load of hay. He uses a sort of Socratic teaching method where questions lead to dialogue and answers. He certainly has many of you in his "Golden Shower". I've been waiting to see what the fuss was about over this "GOLD PROFIT" and it was worth the wait. I like his posts because so many of you like them . That makes them worth while even if he is full of B.S. Did I make my first copyright?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 18:40 - ID#238295)
signs of the times

This speaks for itself. This guy was a nut, but was 100% correct about lotteries cheating people.

Killer of four believed Connecticut lottery cheated

NEWINGTON, Conn. ( AP ) - The accountant who gunned down four people at state
lottery headquarters before killing himself had complained to newspapers months
beforehand that lottery players were being cheated.

Matthew Beck, who worked for the lottery more than eight years, approached at least two
newspaper reporters to interest them in recent changes at the lottery.

He claimed the Connecticut Lottery Corp. exaggerated potential winnings to spur ticket
sales, and that store clerks were taking winning scratch tickets for themselves by cracking
the computer system.

His discussions with The Day of New London and The Hartford Courant included his
complaints of unfair treatment at work.

The Courant described him as frothing at the mouth and said his eyes were ``wild,'' while
the Day described him as ``scruffy'' in appearance.

Beck, 35, shot to death four of his bosses Friday, including one who was chased into a
parking lot and shot as he reportedly begged for his life. As police approached, Beck put
the pistol to his temple and fired.

Beck was described by friends and co-workers as a quiet, diligent worker who became
mired in depression because of job problems.

He went years without a promotion, then filed a grievance in August one year after he
was shifted from accounting to data processing work.

After taking a stress-related medical leave in October and undergoing treatment, he
returned to work Feb. 25 when an arbitrator ruled he had taken on responsibilities outside
his job description. Beck was waiting to see if he would be given back pay for the
additional work.

Prior to returning to work, Beck told reporters about alleged lottery scams.

``They need to increase ( revenues ) by $30 million and they're under a lot of pressure to
let other things take a back seat,'' Beck told The Day in January in explaining why
jackpots were being exaggerated.

In November, lottery officials admitted projected Lotto jackpots had been inflated for
years by rounding sales projections to the nearest half-million-dollar figure. For example,
if projections showed the prize would be $9.1 million, the figure would be rounded up to
$9.5 million in advertising.

Otho Brown, the lottery president killed Friday in the parking lot, said that the practice
had been stopped.

Beck also claimed that some store clerks had been cheating the system by ``fishing'' for
instant winning tickets, the Courant said.

He told the newspaper that the clerks punched code numbers into lottery computers until
they came up with the winning combination and then would take the cash.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 18:43 - ID#26669)
Aurator, thankyou, kind gentleperson for your comment.

The first reference is to the poem by Longfellow, an 18th century Amrerican poet. The second is some historical background. All the best writing about PR's silverwork is offline ( sorry ) . IMHO much of his dislike of the Brits was due to their predatory taxation practices and the silversmith's naturally high profile as a victim thereof. Leading me to wonder about modern parallels.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 18:59 - ID#347457)
MoReGoLd, Rep. Horns report card is correct. With all modesty I can say that some of it has my handwriting on it. It goes like this ( and not only in the US Gov. )

Organization says "we are not doing so bad," have everything lined up, these systems are fine - we just developed them using the latest technology, this other set of systems will be replaced before year 2000, and this other sets will be "renovated" on time.

Then we are asked to come and look how are they doing. We go, we look, and here is the real story:

1 - systems which were suppose to be fine because they are new ARE NOT OK and need to be fixed

2 - systems which are suppose to be replaced are significantly behind the schedule, and without some cuts in new functionality, or throwing much more money on it ( if that buys anything ) , they wont be ready on time

3 - renovation of "few legacy systems" has not started yet because all effort is put into new development and replacement of more critical systems.

4 - there is no real plan to deal with this thing - just a "plan" based not on the reality but on "reporting requirements" - so we can look good.

At the end of this assessment there is a panic and statements "Oh my God, how are we going to deal with this?". Mind you that we are not for profit company, can not compete and bid for renovation work, no money gained, just trying to do an honest work and give them an early warning "you better improve before you are beyond of any hope!"

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:00 - ID#341214)
Mozel, Tyro: DoD Y2K Chief Resignation
Mozel, Tryo: I came across the following reference to the departure of Anthony Valletta and staff. I went to the web site that is shown in the excerpt below but I could not find an actual news item mentioning the resignations.,4,19709,00.html

Horn was particularly worried about the
ahref="" Defense
Department, where the top four experts on the
problem had recently retired. The Pentagon was
responsible for a third of all the critical computer
systems in the entire government.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:02 - ID#197344)
Mooney,pork ,
ah your word of caution was good advise,trying to pick a
bottom is dangerous especialy in a perishable commodity,
where the farmers saying in a over supplied market is
( sell them or smell them ) ,I look for them to go up but
when is the ? Most of Asia would be happy for a belly full
of rice,and I don't see the grains going up yet,it's plain
to see the entire crb is low and getting lower and whoever
has the money to buy when it turns could get in the way of
some of the best moves in recent history.Yahoo I'm going to try

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:09 - ID#30116)
James -- Shorting tech stocks is NOT easy! Sometimes, in less than one trading day, you can go from reeeeally profitable to very broke. I had only one 'bad' short sale in the techs last year. The reason? I got stupid and pulled my stops... I was up $300+ in less than one hour, but something funny was going on. It looked like fund mangers were trying to squeeze the shorts on a down day in the tech stocks. Stupid me, not wanting to be stopped out because I 'knew' this stock was going lower... I pulled my buy stop. Needless to say, they did not let me out cheap. Since that day, I have NEVER pulled a stop out on a short sale.

Also, beware of stocks with large floats and miniscule daily volume. Somebody owns the stock and is clearly in no hurry to part with it... Always try and find out who owns large blocks of the stock. Is it a fund? An individual? Some group? Always know as much as you can before you sell something that isn't yours... AND ALWAYS CUT YOUR LOSSES SHORT. Thin markets are very hazardous to your financial health in this regard. The only thing worse ( I think ) is trying to sell a gold stock when no one wants to buy it...

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:13 - ID#285121)
Compaq Computer
This stock was trading a few days ago for 26 times earnings and a dividend yield of .18%. There profit warning was that their would be no profit. Folks problems are very near in our equities market.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:14 - ID#330175)

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:17 - ID#233199)
Debt to the minute URL?

Could someone kindly repost the US Gov't Debt to the Minute URL please?

Thanks ....

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:18 - ID#252150)
Old Gold@I,m fully aware of the control that the U.S. has over Saudi Arabia
but believe that it has diminished in recent years. Besides, there are many other Countries such as Venezuala, that the U.S. can't control. However, I believe that your thesis is flawed, because oil prices are now well below where the U.S. would like to see them. They don't want a situation like the 70's where prices were forced down to the point where oil dependant states & economies were devastated. If these prices stay at this level for a year, much damage will be done & then the prices will rebound much higher than before.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:21 - ID#330175)
cocktail hour(s) in Cape Breton
A man and a woman were having dinner in a fine restaurant. Their
waitress, taking another order at a table a few paces away noticed
that the man was slowly sliding down his chair and under the table,
with the woman acting unconcerned. The waitress watched as the man
slid all the way down his chair and out of sight under the table.
Still, the woman dining across from him appeared calm and unruffled,
apparently unaware that her dining companion had disappeared. After
the waitress finished taking the order, she came over to the table and
said to the woman, "Pardon me, ma'am, but I think your husband just
slid under the table."

The woman calmly looked up at her and replied firmly, "No he didn't.
He just walked in the door."

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:22 - ID#233199)

Do you expect Gold Co. Mining Shares to to be confiscated, i.e.; is ONLY physical safe for the individual to hold? Shoud I dump ( sell ) my SA Gold shares and buy "the real thing"


(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:24 - ID#30116)
No comments on the CRB/XAU chart?
Truely, this forum has divirged when a chart of the CRB versus XAU does not get ONE comment, good or bad.

Does anyone care about the bond market moves here? What about the employment reports? Other currencies? HELLO!

Or are we all convinced that the Great Depression II is here.

The overiding belief seems to be the Fed will not raise rates because of the Asian 'problem'. What if they did? What if the tech companies CAN'T find enough engineers and technicians to meet their needs? How does the market solve this kind of problem? What does this mean to the companies bottom line and earnings? Finally, what do these people do with all of this money?

Perhaps the CRB should be looked at a little more closely in the coming months... Who knows? Maybe even gold might move...

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:24 - ID#330175)
never been inc. before

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:25 - ID#285121)
National Debt Clock

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:27 - ID#30116)
Howdy Ted. Is the 'project' under way?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:27 - ID#252150)
Panda@thanks for the advice Re:shorting
I have become pretty adept at taking small losses. However, it's amazing how a bunch of small losses can quickly add up to a substantial amount.
Have you looked @ Mitel? With their acquisition of Plessy + a weak semi mkt I think the price has gotten a way too high.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:27 - ID#285121)

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:30 - ID#234218)
I have what may be a simple question. In your post of 14 Feb 98 19:58, you state, Gold will be repriced, once! It will be enough for your time of life. Then on 24 Feb 98 21:46 you post, gold may find a price of $50US/oz or $50,000US/oz, but the truth will not be known as an open market.

If gold were to become invaluable as the money for oil and monetary stability worldwide, would governments allow anyone to hold or spend it? I would think they would try to confiscate it and/or make it illegal to spend or barter. If an item has no known value and cannot be used in transactions, where in lies its worth??

You stated that the paper gold must first be destroyed. That would make the physical more valuable, but once this happens, and it is repriced in your scenario it will become even more of a political metal and not for the individual. If private holdings could be sold or bartered, it would almost certainly have to be sold to governments ( at their prices ) or on black markets, but without a known value, how? How would any type of physical gold be considered safe. Bars? Coin? What type?

I am not a market analyst or financial guru. Just a few questions that come to my simple thinking mind.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:32 - ID#288157)
Panda, Well...
I sitting here staring at the "Comment & Analysis" page [FT] which features a HUGE article on Andy Grove...there is a out-take box,
wherein, in big, black, bold letters is stated: "Even if another company could design a better microprocessor, none could put much of a dent in Intel"...and I'm 'a-thinking', yessss, that's pretty much the mind-set of the equity market, the $ forex market on ad infinitum. Glad it is a
dreary, rainy, cold day... And I think they re-jigger the CRB so, when
bread reaches $225 a loaf, it [CRB] will STILL be 225--228! {:- ( ( (

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:37 - ID#26793)
Asian Suckers' Rally

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:39 - ID#30116)
Timing is everything with a short sale. If you like the semiconductor playground, follow the SOX index. Also go here for some sector indexes and their component companies,

Select your poison ( index ) of choice, ( yes, the XAU is here to. ) Go to the 'symbol' window, select the pulldown button and choose the information that you want to see. Select 'submitt' and place your bets.. :- ) )

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:41 - ID#286199)
Catching up...

The Fed won't raise rates for a while. The U.S. markets are pulling the rest of the world like a train engine. AG won't tinker with the engine just yet. Also, inflation is perceived to be quite tame. An increase in rates would be politically incorrect and would hasten capital flight from weaker economic partners. Most importantly, any tightening of rates would have a negative impact on domestic markets and the perception of "all's well" that has thus far protected the government.

The most important number for Gold coming this week is the productivity measure. Worker's pay is going up at 4.1% per year. If productivity slips, then it signals inflation. Balance that against the declining PPI, though.

jim c
(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:43 - ID#69280)
Donald(17:54>Dollar plunging)
I bet the Australian CBs are glad they sold their gold. Gold is the real thing. As long as gold demands exceed suppies, the day will come when the price in the yellow metal will surge. Let us be patient.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:46 - ID#330175)
which project ( check yer mail )

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:47 - ID#390249)
Per Andy Smith, EBC to hold 2000 tons gold at most
The attached was posted on the SI site. It is 3 weeks old. This article might account for the large increase in gold short positions mid Feb. I've been trying to locate the total gold holdings of the 11 countries joining the EMU and have had no luck. If anyone has this info, I would greatly appreciate their posting it.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:50 - ID#348127)

Giving thought to some issues today I came to this realization. Everything has a reson. What is the reason for gold being such a valued material? Could it be that it is pretty.NO Could it be because it is a highly useful material.NO Could it be that it has extremely limited resources.NOT IN MY OPINION. How about this proposal. Could it be that thousands of years ago Earth was mined for its gold by a superior race and they still have a need for it. MAYBE???

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:51 - ID#30116)
Famous last words...
SDRer__A -- This was the same company ( Intel ) that was making ROMs ( Read Only Memory ) before Andy decided to switch gears and make microprocessors. Somehow, the old warning about pride going before a fall somehow comes to mind here.

As far as the CRB goes, if the economy is doing this good, then the demand for raw products will be there. This will have to show up in the CRB. Lumber anyone? I see more buildings ( commercial ) and homes going up all over the place here ( Northeast ) . To boot, I see construction teams working on Saturdays too. Hmmm, sounds like time-and-a-half to me. Now in the end, these buildings maybe vacant, vis-a-vis the late eighties real estate bust, but for now, they're going up fast!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:52 - ID#330175)
My recommendation for a non-gold 'long-term' equity(dollar cost-averaged into)-
and held in PNY

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:57 - ID#285121)
TO: Donald on the sucker rally
It is my opinion that the length and sevierity of a bear market is determined by the amount of debt at the beginning of the bear market. it Which means we're in big trouble.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 19:57 - ID#60253)

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 15:18

OLD GOLD ( Paper Gold ) ID#238295:

What do you see as the likely trigger for this anticipated golden


Mr. Old Gold,

The US$ price of gold is, now held between several extremes. In Nov. of last year, a understanding was reached that the paper gold market was out of control. The private market was using this medium in a way not intended. Gold was to be taken and held in the $320 to $360 range. This was good for all. As the down trend was not seen in price yet, it was known that trading was in place to drop the price. Perhaps, even below The BIS capital level! Several very large physical buys were made in the off market ( see Date: Sat Nov 29 1997 15:53 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253: ) as a warning. At that time the CBs started a slowdown in lending and sales. The market came close to a major resolution. In Jan. the BIS was close to a large open move, it would have caused a paper


Oil will not accept the position, as is. Gold must come back into range as oil falls no further. Any loss of perceived control by the CBs will trigger a bid by oil. It would be better for time to pass and allow a natural change to the new oil currency ( perhaps 1 1/2 years ) . However, it is now my view that the CBs have lost control! I expect a break above $360 to create an allout run to infinity, before year end. Physical gold should be purchased for a lifetime holding, not a trade.

thank you

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:01 - ID#26793)
JP Morgan and other banks may be sitting on a lot of faulty derivatives

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:01 - ID#390249)
Another - ECB gold holdings?
Another - last week you indicated that the BIS won't allow gold to go below $280 and that CB's had curtailed their selling and lending of gold. Indications from analysts and reporters are that the ECB will hold an insignificant amount of gold as part of their reserves and that we can expect increased sales as a result. Do you know how much gold the ECB will hold as part of its reserves? As goldbugs, will we be pleased or disappointed with the amount they hold? As a start, will it be above or below 10%? If above, will it exceed 20%? Any number you can give, if you know it, would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:02 - ID#261269)
ANOTHER...PERHAPS an unimportant question...but
what do you forsee for silver ???

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:06 - ID#233199)
Care to contact me by e-mail for further conversation?
SWP1 ( )

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:12 - ID#267298)
Idle Thoughts
It has often been stated on this forum that no one can predict the future.

I don't really agree with this premise. I am Quite willing to make a
prediction and wager a twenty four of Coors Light that my prediction
will be accurate. My prediction is:


What I do believe no one can predict accurately is the "EXACT TIMING" of the above prediction. Without specifying an exact date I
would say a good guess of the above becoming fact would be before
the end of 1998. My thought processes are not nearly as deep and
perhaps as insightful as many other KITCO posters, I tend to think in
rather simplistic basic terms. As I enjoy a lazy Saturday, sipping my
Coors Light, I just can't seem to get this recurring thought out of my mind.


No matter that P/E and P/B are at or near record highs. No matter that
Dividend Yields are at or near record lows, equities can and will probably
will continue to make gains so long as earnings remain strong. But,
there lies the rub.

The evidence is now starting to come in. INTEL, MOTOROLA,
COMPAQ all reporting warnings. What will GE and COCA COLA
and a myriad of others be in coming weeks? The glitch in the road
may turn out to be a crater. And yet, the BULL runs, perhaps not
for long. EARNINGS ARE EVERYTHING. Like I said......


(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:13 - ID#256254)
comes stocks... and a little more.
warehouse stocks:
n GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
n 345,828 0 0 0 100 345,928
n 134,986 0 0 0 -100 134,886
n 480,814 0 0 0 0 480,814


0 0 36,312,991
-682,060 0 52,706,304
-682,060 0 89,019,295

Didn't see if this got posted for Friday so here it is. Looks like silver is ready to drop below 88million ounces.

With all the contract trading going on, it looks fairly clear that comex is a paper gold game only. The real question is how little gold can they carry as eliglible for delivery and still do business. 134,886 ounces at $294.45 an ounce is only $39,717,182.70. So for $40 million dollars ( chump change ) in today's market, all of comex's eligible gold stocks can be purchased.

I would like to see that number compared with the average monthly contracts traded in a month on comex.

Fianlly, if governments are successful in removing all the gold from their control and putting totally in private hands, would you assume that the price would go down or up. I think we would see a very strong gold value, for private hands will carefully manage their horde. Gold is at its bottom.

The big question we are grappling with is... When will it start its strong move up???

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:13 - ID#26793)
XAU comment and analysis

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:14 - ID#255284)
There's Gold in tham thar banks
Here's a start:

Troy ounces ( millions )

1990 1992 1994 1996 1997*
UnitedStates 261.9 261.8 261.7 261.7 261.7
Canada 14.8 9.9 3.9 3.1 3.1
Australia 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 2.6
Japan 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2
Austria 20.4 19.9 18.3 10.7 10.1
Belgium 30.2 25 25 15.3 15.3
Denmark 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7
France 81.9 81.9 81.9 81.9 81.9
Germany 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2
Greece 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5
Italy 66.7 66.7 66.7 66.7 66.7
Netherlands 43.9 43.9 34.8 34.8 27.1
Norway 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Portugal 15.8 16.1 15 16.1 14
Spain 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6
Sweden 6.1 6.1 6.1 4.8 4.8
Switzerland 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3
UnitedKingdom 18.9 18.6 18.4 18.4 18.4
Subtotal 793.1 782.4 764.3 746.1 730.4
TOTAL 1,143.80 1129.9 1115.8 1104.9 1099.5
( Official Reserves ) *As of April 30
**As of July 3 Source: International Monetary Fund, CPM Group

Bully Beef
(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:15 - ID#259282)
When banks lose 100's of millions due to 28 year old kids making secret derivative deals to cover other losses what are the old experts doing? God help us if the world finances are dependant on young traders in red suspenders with the morality of... well...trying to decide double or nothing...sevens...snakes eyes...

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:15 - ID#376309)
You guys need your head examined if you think that there is some BIG trader out there who will stop gold from going under $280.00, BIS or BIG trader your a fraud!

Get real - Get short!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:17 - ID#30116)
Speed -- Interesting to see all of the noise made on capital hill about immigration law and work visa's for high tech workers. I guess there is such a 'shortage' of 'qualified' engineers and techs that we need to import them. Hmmm, maybe my rates are too LOW.

Here I thought, that high-tech was going to save our economy! Now, ( cut to a scene from, "Casa Blanca" ) I'm SHOCKED! SHOCKED! TO FIND OUT THAT GAMBLING, err, I mean, that we need to import workers because there's no one left to do the high tech jobs here...

Sounds like to me, that someone screwed the high tech workers over in the early ninties and now payback is a bitch. Also, the bottom line will be getting hit soon enough. Intel's warning should start, at least a tiny fire in every gold bugs heart. Intel's overhead costs are going up. Translation, labor costs more.

Psilver Psyched
(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:17 - ID#216217)
The USA has been openly courting Venezuelian oil. I believe within this last year, oil imports from Venezuela have exceeded those from Saudi Arabia.
Is this action of the USA a deliberate evasive manuever to derail oil's bid for gold? If the USA is actively attempting to avoid the outcome you forsee, does not each passing day without paper being challenged in the gold market increase the USA's chances of preventing a succesful bid? With the demand for oil falling worldwide, can the world simply refuse to purchase oil from the those wish to be paid in gold? As you indicated only a few are paid in gold by agreement. Would not the world price of oil continue to remain lower by refusing to purchase in gold than under the conditions you forsee? Will the world not try to resist? Will this not cause immediate hardship within the communities served by these holders of oil? Perhaps you believe that since the masses have already been trained to believe that gold is worthless, governments will freely release there gold for oil rather than face political consequence?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:23 - ID#330175)
This is not a joke................................................*go Gold*
A man and his young son are in the drugstore when the son comes across
condoms and asks his father what they are.

The dad replies, "Well son, those are condoms and they're for protection
you're having sex."
The son then picks up one of the packs and asks why it has three in it.
The dad replies, "Those are for high school boys. One for Friday, one for
one for Sunday."

The son then picks up one with six condoms asks, "Why six?" The dad
"Well son, those are for college men. Two for Friday, two for Saturday
and two
for Sunday."

The son then notices the 12 pack of condoms and asks the same question.
replies, "Son, those are for married men. One for January, one for
for March...."

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:24 - ID#26793)
Arab rights and Jewish gold

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:25 - ID#35767)
Unfortuantely I agree Go short in spades. This gold mkt is going to get hammered into oblivion before a bull can develop and below 250 is a minimum target. Short gold with vigor on any rally. When things do change it will happen with little expectation and be dramatic.. ie wiping out the shorts.SHORT THE OPENING MONDAY WITH A STOP AT 310 and let the profits run!!!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:25 - ID#256254)
Sorry about those n's. Do't know how they got in.

Welcom back Another.
Wow! Another is saying the game is up within 18 months. Sounds about right with a few other calls the people having been.

I, of course, think the time is much closer at hand. ( I am always to early. ) I see the actions in Indonesia ( including all the talks wwith Saudi Arabia, China, Japan, Russia ... ) as the straw that will break the U.S. dollar's back.

Another, is the dinar the currency fromt he past that you have referred to?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:26 - ID#30116)
Unfortunately, the trend in gold is still intact ( DOWN ) . I don't know what it will take to turn it around. Clearly, today's article in Barron's about the gold miners and 'GoldPEC' shows that they are getting a little worried. I think the turn in gold will come when it's obvious that labor costs are rising, productivity is down or flat, and it is perceived that the Fed is behind the curve in tightening ( for whatever reason ) . Untill then............more of the same.. :- ( (

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:26 - ID#330175)
I hate em too~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:27 - ID#330175)
Gephardt suks~~~~~

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:28 - ID#30116)

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:29 - ID#238295)
Andy Smith
Another: Thanks for your prompt reply.

Andy Smith's opinion on ECB gold holdings is just that -- his opinion. Others such as Frank Venneroso have a very different take. If Andy is right, we can forget about gold going over $300 on a sustained basis anytime soon. But the recent good action of the gold stocks and the yellow's resiliance in the face of the silver smash signals that he may well be wrong. For Andy Smith being a bear on gold has gone beyond ordinary investment analysis and has become a religion

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:30 - ID#60253)

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 15:47

Delphi ( @ANOTHER ) ID#258129:

What will happened with oil price in long term, when reserves of it will be mostly consumed?

Mr. Delphi,

A good thought, sir! Perhaps, oil will be replaced in 20 or 30 years? Oil has a very short history when compared to gold! I would say, my oil should be replaced with gold for that time to come!

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 16:32

chas ( Another re "gold in the ground" ) ID#342282:

Mr. Chas,

During the time that must come, all forms of paper ownership of things will come into question. Many persons have accepted the wall street/gold stock way as a true holding of gold, it is not the right holding for our new future! This new gold market is not as before and will bring much confusion of the perceived values that mines represent. Indeed, a mine may hold the value of $1.00 as all other things fall to $0.00, but it offers no safety of worth, if you purchased it at $20.00. It will be a bitter lesson for gold investors with a short history of life. good luck

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 17:11

Jack ( MR. ANOTHER ) ID#252127:

Is my reasoning correct?

Mr. Jack, The outline you have given, will no doubt, only be the beginning. I must ask anyone, if gold went to even $10,000/ current purchasing value, would that not be enough? History has shown that persons that hold gold during times of change, do always find a better life. Think now, if you lived in 1975, would a 8,500 Dow not have looked as not a real expectation, but thinking and perception of value does change!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:33 - ID#286199)
If the EMU sets it's gold reserves at 2000 tons or so, does it logically follow that the remaining gold will be sold/leased? If so, then I understand the sell signal. If not, then what other reasons do you have for negative sentiment?

Panda: See Spud Master's comments earlier today. I'm not a programmer but I get several calls every week from recruiters looking for programmers and network engineers. SAP is hiring away analysts and training them at incredible salaries. I am currently working on my MCSE and can reasonably expect 5-10K more per annum once I have it. It's nice to be on the right side of at least one market!! I'll need to be if this *?/& gold market doesn't turn around.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:41 - ID#330175)
More wasTED bandwidth
man is waiting for his wife to give birth. The doctor comes in and
informs the dad that his son was born without torso, arms or legs. The
son is just a head! But the dad loves his son and raises him as well as
he can, with love and compassion. After 18 years, the son is old enough
for his first drink.
Dad takes him to the bar and tearfully tells the son he is proud of him.
Dad orders up the biggest, strongest drink for his boy. With all the
bar patrons looking on curiously and the bartender shaking his head in
disbelief, the boy takes his first sip of alcohol. Swoooop! A torso
pops out!
The bar is dead silent; then bursts into a whoop of joy.
The father, shocked, begs his son to drink again. The patrons chant
"take another drink"! The bartender still shakes his head in dismay.
Swoooop! Two arms pops out. The bar goes wild. The father, crying and
wailing, begs his son to drink again.
The patrons chant "take another drink"!
The bartender ignores the whole affair.
By now the boy is getting tipsy, and with his new hands he reaches down,
grabs his drink and guzzles the last of it. Swoooop! Two legs pop out.
The bar is in chaos. The father thanks God. The boy stands up on his
new legs and stumbles to the left.... then to the right.... right
through the front door, into the street, where a truck runs into him and kills him.
The bar falls silent. The father moans in grief. The bartender cleans
his glasses and whistles an old Irish tune.
The father looks at the bartender in disbelief and asks, "How can you be
so cold and callous?"
The bartender says, "That boy should have quits while he was a head."
Only the individual sender is responsible for the content of this
message, and the message does not necessarily reflect the position
or policy of the National Education Association or its affiliates.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:54 - ID#267298)
Sexual things

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:55 - ID#344205)
Esteemed ANOTHER:
There is one issue that you have only touched lightly in the past..... that of silver.

What is your opinion as to it's rising with gold? Do you feel that it could outperform gold; or that gold, as the exclusive holder of real
wealth, ( instead of silver or platinum as comodities ) will take the sparkle out of silver in comparison?

My thoughts have always tended towards silver regaining it's proporional value in relation to actual quantities of gold and silver in existance, as determined by the price of gold. I do not know the absolute quantities in existance, but have always heard numbers of 16:1 bantied about.... which seems quite low.... as the world seems to have so much more silver than this. At around the present 48:1, it seems that silver MUST be a superior producer in comparison to gold, when gold drags silver along after gold makes it's run.

Lurker 777
(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:55 - ID#317247)
1. Can Bart at Kitco have your permission to sell your THOUGHTS to help defer the cost of operating Kitco?
2. What percentage of a persons wealth should be in Gold?
3. Do you think there is going to be Gold selling by the European CBs prior to the May 1998 announcement of gold holdings in the EMU?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:56 - ID#238295)
bulls and bears
One forecast that I am very confident of. When gold does make the big turn, very few on this or any other forum will be bullish.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:57 - ID#288156)
Neophyte--ECB's gold...
3. On the Australian gold conference--ECB urged to organize gold auctions, the last two paragraphs of the article should be of interest to us: Mr. von Arentschildt said the consensus was that gold would account for about 10 per cent of the new European Central Banks reserves. He suggested that this GROSSLY UNDERESTIMATED the incentive for the ECB to hold a relatively large proportion of its reserves as gold.

Germany, France and Italy would have a clear majority in voting on the
composition of reserve compositions of the ECB, including the proportion of gold.Traditionally these countries have equated gold reserves with stability, Mr. von Arentschildt said. They are also some of the largest holders of the metal. Collectively they hold some 75 per cent of the 11 gold reserves held by the 11 Emu members. So they would suffer the most if the ECB were to hold a low percentage of its reserves in gold.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:57 - ID#286199)
There's always another side to the argument
The U.S. dollar may well be devalued and the POG will go up in dollars accordingly.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:57 - ID#267298)
Whoops - hit the enter by mistake
Probably an old one by now

What are Bill Clinton's first words after having intercourse?

Hillary, I'll be home in fifteen minutes....

(Sat Mar 07 1998 20:57 - ID#26793)
How Saddam profits on oil futures by turning the war on and off

(Sat Mar 07 1998 21:03 - ID#60253)

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 18:19

WetGold ( @ANOTHER ) ID#243180:

What do you know of the Dinar comments posted from the Islamic Mint ?

Mr. WetGold,

I understand it. I do think of it as the beginning of a change in the perception of value by all persons.

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 19:22

SWP1 ( @ANOTHER ) ID#233199:

Mr. SWP1,

Please study the history of wealth as it has moved thru time and change. What your perceptions of value are now? Follow in the footsteps of times past, trace its steps in the minds of others. You will find the value for your future lie in gold today!

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 19:30

Snowball ( @ANOTHER ) ID#234218:

Mr. Snowball,

Please read the: Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 15:10 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:

Gold will become a currency of choice by all, for the benefit of all. Those of lost paper wealth will not remove coins from the world. They will use this deep currency as a building tool. Coins are good!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 21:06 - ID#317193)
IF, if's and but's were candy and nuts, OH, what a merry Christmas this would be! What if, what if-jeeezzz! Gold is going to tank-gold is going to the moon. Who should I believe? NO ONE! Trust only your own decisions-not that of others. Ted-good head. LIVE LONG AND PROSPER ( assumes you don't make any really dumb investment decisions-sorry, couldn't resist.

The Hatt
(Sat Mar 07 1998 21:09 - ID#294232)
Mutual Fund Meltdown Causes Violence in the Streets!!!!!!!!!
For far too long the average working Joe has been throwing after tax dollars at these financial gurus referred to as Fund Managers. We all wonder how the Dow stays up? Some fund managers have never seen a bear market and for that reason keep throwing money into over priced paper. The day is near when the liquidity will begin to dry up and then and only then will we see real panic. We are looking into a mirror of 1929 and the outcome because of these funds will be much different. It is common knowledge that the funds are borrowing large sums of cash to cover redemptions in order to stay fully invested. A serious correction would deplete the cash position of these funds very quickly and the need for cash will will rock the foundation of the Dow. Then and only then these average Joes will panic and the requests for redemptions will add fuel to the already out of control fire. Greenspan and the boys can play all they want with the S&P Futures when the panic sets in there will be no plunge protection team as the masses will have stopped listening. The sad part is many average people will suffer as a result of a Spineless Government who have painted themselves into a corner! The likes of Greenspan and Clinton will be HATED BY MILLIONS AND WILL GO DOWN IN HISTORY AS THE TWO MEN THAT COULD OF PREVENTED THE NEXT DEPRESSION! The PONZI GAME is about to end and as Goldbugs we should be trying our best to protect our families and friends from the soon to begin mass financial raping that all fund holders are about to experience. It makes me sick to think of the Seniors who helped build this Country have been sucked into this game that will leave them wondering about self preservation! God help America!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 21:18 - ID#238295)
Andy Smith
Here it is folks, the ultimate bear case from the ultimate bear. Comments welcome. Anybody who believes this spiel will be shorting heavily

Weekly Precious Metals
February 13, 1998



Site Map









"I believe it is peace in our time...And now I recommend you to go home
and sleep quietly in your beds"
Neville Chamberlain, September 30, 1938

As raised hopes go, a close second to the pre-war British prime ministers
is the notion that European Monetary Union will herald a cooperative
central bank ethos, peace in our time on the central bank sales front. That
the announcement of fixed cross-currency rates among EMU members on
May 1 - 3, followed by the establishment of a single European central bank
in summer, will remove the banana skins of ad hoc, uncoordinated official
sales. Indeed, if one prominent producers information is half right - that a
syndicate of 5 commercial banks stands ready to soak up then broker the
thousands of tonnes of residual ( berschssig ) gold left outside the
European Central Bank in national vaults - then the more subtle issues
below amount to no more than peanuts. Infact, this and other aspirations
turn out to be as clear as gorillas in the mist. But it is worth peeling the
arguments, so widely are they being aped as the missing link to the next
gold bull market.

* haircut over?: sales will stop with EMU, this argument goes, because
gold is already much nearer the 60% of its early 1997 market value which
important members ( like Germany ) considered an appropriate book value
( market price minus a haircut ) . A performance as likely to stimulate as
deter sales, surely?

* distracted attention: sales will stop, indeed may have already stopped,
because EMU members are pre-occupied with other issues. More important
issues? Gold is clearly not a priority: the issue whether the ECB or
members own Europes gold reserves "isnt one of monetary relevance",
according to potential ECB head Wim Duisenburg; translation - not
something an ECB with a full agenda would worry over.

* the letter of the law: the Maastricht Treaty wraps members freedom
for sales maneouvre in red tape. Infact, relevant Treaty provisions ( see table
attached, last page ) are articles of faith. Both members and the ECB will
enjoy considerable flexibility in gold policy ( especially in gold swaps,
which would not be affected even by low ECB approval limits on
members transactions because minimal capital is at risk ) . And laws change
or bend anyway. The rubber Maastricht Treaty ( elastic EMU entry criteria; a
potentially bendy first term for the first ECB head ) has achieved the
crediblity of peace treaties for the Plains Indians.

* the spirit of the law: even if the letter of the ( Maastricht ) law is
unclear, the spirit of the new club, peer group pressure, will limit gold
sales. After all, Belgium has already announced that its coin sale
programme after 1999 will be coordinated with EMU members. Underlying
this ( false ) hope is the idea of a peer group as current as, say, the British
House of Lords, where cobwebs move faster than opinions. Infact, in the
EMU peer group non-gold lenders or non-swappers are now in a minority
of one or two. And domestic barriers to sales, even in the most traditional
of members, are lower than supposed; according to GFMS, French savers
sold 3 tonnes per month last year of inherited gold.

Nevertheless, lifebelts are rarely spurned. And since EMU is the only
structural change on the official gold horizon, it is natural that those
drowning in a sea of central bank doubt should grab it with gusto. But
inflated hopes do not hold water:

Suppose things go swimmingly: reserves are pooled in the ECB
based on the current split of gold and foreign exchange held by members
( the share of gold in total reserves held by the ECB then falls out of the
arithmetic of member capital shares - the basis of member contributions to
the ECB reserve pool - and their existing reserve mix ) . At most the ECB
will hold just over 2000 tonnes ( assuming, heroically, a full 50 billion ECU
worth of total ECB reserves and, realistically ( ? ) , a 50% of market
valuation of gold on ECB books ) . However the cake of 12760 tonnes held
by the 11 probable EMU members is cut, an awful lot is left on the plate
( on top of the 1000+ tonnes in EU countries not entering EMU ) . At less
than the gold reserves held now by Germany, France or Italy, wouldnt a
2000 tonne ECB leave market sentiment with a sinking feeling? At a quarter
of the 8000+ tonnes of gold reserves held by the USA, a similar size
economy as Euroland, might not the ECBs gold-lite reserve mix
re-emphasise the excess ballast held by the US Treasury?

Suppose things ride with the tide already set by other central
banks who have recently asked the question: Why gold? In each of these
cases - Australia, Argentina, the USA, Switzerland - gold has failed to pass
the clean piece of paper test. When the historical salt is removed from
central banks eyes, they see clearly that they want much less, or even no
gold. Even the Swiss central bank/finance ministry expert group
justification for keeping less than half of existing ( 2600 tonnes of ) gold
reserves floats on tortuous reasoning inapplicable to EMU, ie golds place
in a modern Swiss National Bank portfolio was seen as a buttress to
Switzerlands unique importance as a financial centre; 1200 tonnes, valued
at 60% of market price, would cover ( a magic ) 7% of the net overseas
liabilities of Swiss commercial banks. And sales by Australia ( 2/3 of
reserves ) and Argentina ( almost all reserves ) followed 6 months after the
appointment of fresh pairs of eyes, new central bank heads, deciding they
would not like to start from here.

Worse, stripped of their currency intervention roles, member central banks
( and their tax paying publics ) may come to regard the 11,000+ tonnes
remaining in their holds more clearly as excess cargo, a more obvious
deadweight opportunity cost with no reserve role. So EMU may indeed be
a watershed, but by clarifying how leaky the good ship Europe really is.

Since expectations have been falsely buoyed up, market disappointment
when ( not if ) gold is jettisoned will be all the more profound. Making for
a not so peaceful time.

Memo: Articles of faith

In the early 1800s the Blackfeet Indian system of government revolved
around seven older leaders, Big Bellies, who decided when to hunt, move
camp or make war. In turn the Big Bellies chose four strong men, shirt
wearers, to execute their orders. "For both the chiefs and the shirt-wearers
their duties and responsibilities were exacting and precise, although their
powers were somewhat vague" believed Stephen Ambrose. The governing
council of the European Central Bank will probably enjoy less than Big
Belly hegemony over Europes gold. And shirt wearers to police the
councils orders are on the invisible side of vague.

At least this is the impression from applying to the Maastricht Treaty the
technique the editor of Harpers, Lewis Lapham, uses to decipher the
instructions accompanying large Japanese toys. Namely:

1. Read the sentences from right to left.
2. Read upward from the bottom of the page.
3. Place the first four pages under infrared light.
4. Place the last four pages in warm water."



Maastricht Treaty protocol on ECB

Gold policy implication

Article 10.2

Except for provisions of Article 10.3, the ECB Governing Council ( executive
board plus governors of national central banks ) acts by simple majority vote


Article 10.3

Decisions on ECB capital and reserves shall be made by votes in the governing
council weighted according to national banks ECB share capital ( executive
board zero weight ) . A qualified majority decision requires at least two thirds of
ECB share capital and at least half of ECB shareholders in favour

Germany, France and Italy ( a
probable combined 71% of ECB
capital ) dont necessarily rule

Article 10.5

The governing council will meet at least 10 times a year

Cosy club

Article 14.4

"National central banks may perform functions other than those specified in this
statute unless the Governing Council finds, by a majority of two thirds of the
votes cast, that these interfere with the objectives and tasks of the ESCB."

Members retain flexibility

Article 17

"the ECB and the national central banks may open accounts for credit
institutions ...and other market participants and accept assets, including
book-entry securities, as collateral"

Gold not acceptable collateral?

Article 18.1

ECB and national central banks may "operate in the financial markets by buying
and selling outright ( spot or forward ) or under repurchase agreement and by
lending or borrowing claims and marketable instruments whether in Community
or non-Community currencies, as well as precious metals."

Members retain flexibility

Article 23

ECB and national central banks may "acquire and sell spot and forward all types
of foreign exchange assets and precious metals" and "hold and manage" such

Members retain flexibility

Article 30.1

ECB "shall be provided by national central banks with foreign reserve assets,
other than member states currencies, ECUs, IMF reserve positions and SDRs,
up to an amount equivalent to 50 billion ECU. ECB has "full right" to hold and
manage reserves so transferred

ECB can manage gold actively too

Article 31.1

National central banks will be allowed "to perform transactions in fulfilment of
their obligations towards international organisations"

Members retain flexibility

Article 31.2

"All other operations in foreign reserve assets remaining with national central
banks...shall, above a certain subject to the approval by the ECB in
order to ensure consistency with the exchange rate and monetary policies of the

Members retain flexibility below
some threshold size of deal to be
specified by the Governing

(Sat Mar 07 1998 21:23 - ID#339265)
@OLD GOLD RE: MY 17:50 POST...
Old must understand one thing...oil is an interesting commodity in our world today...America does not want it to be too expensive...nor can it be too cheap. It is imperative that oil trade within a price range somewhere in the middle.

Major economic deflationary problems if the price falls too far...and major stagflationary problems if the price trades too high.

Today, the world is awash in oil. Just as excess supplies of gold are held by CB's, thereby imparting value to the metal, we see that if oil were traded in a FREE market without supply being withheld by OPEC, then oil would probably trade somewhere around $4.00 a barrel. Result: severe deflationary effect on America. Conversely, if oil went through the roof as in the Carter years, then there would be a major stagflation in this country.

Unfortunately, today, America has lost control of the oil market and cannot compel its Arab "allies" to reduce output. In fact, America's clout is so diminished that they can't even get certain "friendly" Arab nations to allow them to use their landing fields to launch an attack on Iraq. Thus, war is necessary to, at least in the relative short-term, ensure that the rapidly falling POO does not drop too far. Moreover, a military victory would, once again, put America solidly back in control of the POO. Thus, when the POO threatens to rise exponentially again, America can step in and obtain the output cuts it requires. In other words, America will be able to ensure "mid-range" POO in perpetuity.

Unfortunately, one of the saddest aspects of America's addiction to foreign oil is the likelihood that every six or seven years, America will have to engage in a Mideast military action in order to ensure that it controls the regions oil supply in accordance with its economic goals.
The sooner this country cures its oil addiction, then the sooner it will become a truly strong economy.

Please note: POO stands for Price of Oil and is not to be confused with anal emissions.

Thus spake F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 21:27 - ID#317193)
Laws Learned
There is no free lunch; the herd will not become the wealthy; gold has inherant value; if it's to good to be true, it's a lie, etc. History teaches truth, the bubble will burst and gold will rise because it has been so and will continue to be so. The exact cause will be known later-who can predict such things? Gold @US$250-I wish, I'll lose here and gain there, in physical purchases. Good night all, posted my limit for the month today. Tom P.S. Got a copywrite today, shall I frame the nonsense? NAWWW.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 21:27 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Charts
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors

(Sat Mar 07 1998 21:32 - ID#31868)
Keep going, let em have it and ram that last post home!!!

(Sat Mar 07 1998 21:33 - ID#255190)

Are you working from inside information? Do you know those who operate or do you operate in this area which we can not see ( BIS, oil, gold, leasing ) ? In the past you have spoken about your 'position'. Can you tell us a little about this without compromising your identity? Why are you making these things public?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 21:35 - ID#238295)
Farfel: Agree that America wants POO to stay in the middle range -- %15-$23 a barrel. But when the dollar is strong and foreign economies are hurting they want the price towards the bottom of the range. When the greenback weakens and overseas economies improve, then a price rally to the low 20s is acceptable.

They have not lost control of the oil market. Saudis and Kuwaitis will cut output significantly if Uncle Sam gives the word. These decisions are made in secret and do not incite the same hostility from the masses that allowing US planes to bomb Iraq from Saudi bases would.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 21:37 - ID#339265)
...that he has absolutely no conception of what he is talking about. He rambles on and on and he might as well be in a white padded cell talking to a doorknob. He is nothing but a half-baked intellect speaking in a chauvinistic vacuum of his own creation.

Germany and France will dominate the important decisions in determining the exact nature of the EURO and the gold support behind it.

Anybody who is half-literate and half-tuned in to the European information stream knows that every significant financial person in those two countries has made one thing abundantly clear:

They will not sell an ounce of their gold.

Pearls of wisdom courtesy of...

F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 21:37 - ID#31868)
I meant 21:06, my ISP is slower than government reform.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 21:49 - ID#339265)
...of the gold short sellers?

Because, propaganda is all they have to offer at this point.

No genuine concrete sales of any significance have occurred this year.
Because, at this point in time, the CB's holding gold are those that genuinely believe in its value and would not think of parting with it at these low price levels.

The weak holders have all been shaken out. There is nothing but doom, gloom, misery, capitulation, and hoplelessness amongst gold investors.

Absolutely, a certain sign of an impending dramatic turnaround.

These incontrovertible Truths are born of the Universal Breath.

F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 22:00 - ID#390249)
ECB Gold
Aurator - thanks for the info on CB gold.

SDR'er - thanks for reposting the bullish statement at the Australian gold conference. I agree, it just doesn't make sense that these ECB's would want so little gold backing when they currently have so much. If they only hold 2000 tons how are they going to get rid of the balance? I don't see how an auction is going to help. It might if the perception were that gold was in short supply, but with this huge quantity overhanging the market, they would be lucky to get $200/oz. This would be so incredibly stupid. It just doesn't make sense - especially after Rubin's recent comment that the IMF needed it's gold to maintain its creditworthiness. I don't think the US has any intention of selling its gold.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 22:13 - ID#317193)
In need of CASH to buy more coins. BOUGHT-12 condoms a year ago, have several left ( 11 unused ) will sell at reduced price. Bought -Bre-X stock, will sell for cost of fine wallpaper ( 1 1/2 per share ) . Any interested parties, please post. Tom, nite all

(Sat Mar 07 1998 22:16 - ID#153102)
The benefits are plain to see.

But, it is not clear that gold mines would lose value. Oil wells will not, so why should gold mines ?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 22:18 - ID#344206)
bema gold
can anyone help me find a thread concerning bema? I thankyou in advance

(Sat Mar 07 1998 22:22 - ID#31868)
I believe that people that read, or have met someone that explained the hard, real money, gold and silver understand its role throughout history. At this juncture in time I think it is foolish not to have a portion of ones assets in physical metals, no if ands or buts.

Me, I have been allocating more and more into gold and silver through three methods, numismatic coins, bullion, junk silver and gold and e-gold. I still hold some mining stocks, but not as much as before. The remainder is cash.

I think at this point if you are not in the game, my questions are, what are you doing?, and why are you doing it? If you can't answer those two simple questions faster than a snake bite you should really hold cash and study more.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 22:30 - ID#22956)
every last one of ya. disembark


Ted, hold the fort.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 22:30 - ID#267298)
Don't know if it helps but BEMA'S home page is

(Sat Mar 07 1998 22:38 - ID#330175)
EB------------Bon Voyage
hope this ain't the Titanic~~~~~

(Sat Mar 07 1998 22:39 - ID#153102)
Two who had no SSN: FDR & JFK

(Sat Mar 07 1998 22:42 - ID#348129)
cressy: Go to silicon investor:
You will have to register but its free.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 22:44 - ID#30116)
A most curious story.
China saves Asia? China saves the metals market? With what?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 22:46 - ID#31868)
TED - been dyin' to ask you this
Where does Andy Smith fit into the food chain.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 22:47 - ID#30116)
Let's try this again.
A most curious story.
China saves Asia? China saves the metals market? With what?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 22:51 - ID#348129)
@More proof that the IMF is full of S**T
Friday March 6, 11:40 pm Eastern Time

IMF plays down missed Indonesian deadline

By Ian MacKenzie

JAKARTA, March 7 ( Reuters ) - A delay in IMF disbursement of a second $3.0 billion tranche to Indonesia due on March 15 did not imply a cancellation of the Fund's assistance programme, the IMF's country representative in Jakarta Kadhim Al-Eyd said on Saturday.

The International Monetary Fund said in a statement in Washington that discussions by its executive board on a review of the Indonesian programme ``could not be expected before April.''

It said there was a need for its review team in Jakarta to discuss changes in ``a few macro economic functions'' with the new cabinet to be appointed following President Suharto's re-election by the People's Consultative Assembly on Wednesday.

The IMF made its first $3.0 billion disbursement from the Fund's own $10 billion assistance package in November. This was to be reviewed every three months, with a second disbursement due on March 15.

``The fact that the second disbursement is not going to be made according to the original deadline of March 15 does not imply that the disbursement has been cancelled,'' Al-Eyd told Reuters.

``It will be made as indicated in the IMF statement assuming that the agreement is made with the new economic team of the cabinet,'' he said.

Indonesian Finance Minister Mar'ie Muhammad issued a statement on Thursday saying Jakarta expected the March 15 deadline would be met and warning a delay could ``have a negative impact on efforts to strengthen and to stabilise currencies in Southeast Asia.''

Senior economic sources said the minister's statement was unlikely to help proceedings, containing what appeared to be a veiled threat over the consequences of a disbursement delay.

Senior banking sources have emphasised that the delay was due to procedural reasons, not a form of punishment or threat of cancellation of the IMF programme.

Indonesia has also been considering fixing the exchange rate through a currency board scheme.

This proposal has come under fire from the IMF and major nations on the grounds that Indonesia is not at present in a strong enough economic and financial position to implement such a scheme.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 22:53 - ID#238295)
Farfel: We disagree on oil, but agree on gold. Andy Smith is saying essentially that gold now is just a commodity. And the European CBs and eventually all CBs will sell most of their holdings, no matter what the price.

His implicit assumption that gold has lost its monetary value after thousands of years because SOME CB officials argue this way is the height of arrogance.

My take:

More CB sales are probable, but Mr. Smith is vastly overestimating the amount.

Much of this selling will involve gold now on lease; so may not be that bearish for the POG.

Mr. Smith's implicit assumption that the extant investment paradigm of total faith in CBs, the financial market, and fiat currencies will remain in place forever shows a lack of historical perspective to put it mildly. This is especially incredible in view of the recent meltdown of Asian currencies.

In the final analysis, how much gold the CBs sell or lease is not the crucial issue. The crux of the matter is how long will private investors maintain their blind faith in the financial establishment in general and the US financial establishment in particular. For when that faith is shaken and the greenback comes under sustained pressure, gold will surge even if the CBs decide to dump it all. ( Although they are much more likely to be buying than selling during such a period )

(Sat Mar 07 1998 22:54 - ID#344205)
Esteemed ANOTHER:
There is one issue that you have only touched lightly in the past..... that of silver.

What is your opinion as to it's rising with gold? Do you feel that it could outperform gold; or that gold, as the exclusive holder of real
wealth, ( instead of silver or platinum as comodities ) will take the sparkle out of silver in comparison?

My thoughts have always tended towards silver regaining it's proporional value in relation to actual quantities of gold and silver in existance, as determined by the price of gold. I do not know the absolute quantities in existance, but have always heard numbers of 16:1 bantied about.... which seems quite low.... as the world seems to have so much more silver than this. At around the present 48:1, it seems that silver MUST be a superior producer in comparison to gold, when gold drags silver along after gold makes it's run.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 23:15 - ID#407135)
Old Gold Musing
I agree Old Gold as you so wisely observe who could reasonably continue their faith in fiat currencies after such a recent and dramatic series of collapses in asia.The suddeness of the change in sentiment was breathtaking.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 23:16 - ID#60253)
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 20:01

Neophyte ( Another - ECB gold holdings? ) ID#390249:

Do you know how much gold the ECB will hold as part of its reserves?

Mr. Neophyte,

I do not know. I have knowledge of some discussion for 15% with a individual country holding that is very high. If this is as a final outcome, many CBs will be forced to call in lent gold and buy. I have reason to find this to be as fact!

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 20:02

BillD ( ANOTHER...PERHAPS an unimportant question...but ) ID#261269:

What do you foresee for silver ???

Mr. BillD,

It will not be purchased as a currency replacement. But, in the minds of persons with private holdings, it will be as a currency in time of change. I think it will gain much, but only after a trading halt by gold. Percentage wise, it will not equal gold as many expect.

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 20:17

Psilver Psyched ( @Another ) ID#216217:

The USA has been openly courting Venezuelan oil?

Mr. Psyched,

Please reread the most recent posts from Another. Your question should be: Why would the USA buy most of its oil from Venezuelan when it would be far cheaper to buy it from the ME using gold? It is possible that the new oil bid will come about with the introduction of the EURO and give that currency the oil backing!

All: If the EURO is backed with gold in a large way, oil may be purchased with EUROs and even a smaller amount of gold!

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 20:55

Lurker 777 ( Another ) ID#317247:

Mr. Lurker,

As a person learns, so to does he act! As in all things of life, it is more safe to follow a well walked trail. Truly, many have walked this path of gold. But, as no two men can take the same step, each must gather wealth as his experience will allow.

There is no standard percentage of gold for all persons.

Also, the CBs may start to call back their leases. Together, we will read this new book of gold.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 23:26 - ID#252127)
Old Gold and Robh

The once highly exuberant Asian Tiger economies and currencies entering the scrap heap of history; from
-riches to rags- in such short order has to make concerned people think.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 23:32 - ID#153102)
@JohnD @anyone
What is the outlook for the gold mines in SA to be able to get to market out of country without going through the SA CB ? Is the Reserve Bank the same as the CB ?

Does anyone know where GATT is online ?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 23:34 - ID#257148)

OldGold, 22:53

I agree wholeheartedly, despite, or perhaps because of, our differing expression.

I am interested in When/if Veneroosa's ( sp ) claim of 8,000 tonne short position by CB lenders will be exposed and the effect of same. How will we know that the gold paper game is unravelling? Will it be like wild fire or will it be slow and studied? ?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 23:35 - ID#335190)
Tobacco and Gold @ We The People "Go Gold"
...Corporations ( USofA ) ( Multinational ) can operate outside the "We The People" laws. It takes a **State Insurance provider** to gain access to the inner workings of such a corrupt and evil empire.

Children as young as 5 years old, and other citizen's hooked on drugs, by the exact same reasoning as is used in tobacco sales. ( They enhanced the nicotine content with DRUG ADDITIVES ! The Tobacco plant is a HERB-NOT ADDICTIVE )

Council for tobacco research, suggests a positive operation serving the tobacco industry, such as farmers and their families, and yes the customer, USofA citizen/Taxpayer/Worker. Dirty tricks eh!

Consider **poverty** ( Yes, poverty targets 5 year olds ) as a by-product of other corporations such as central bankers. Financial Institutions motivated by DIRTY profit.

Profit is a by-product of a balanced and productive corporation, serving the requirements of their respective customers ( citizen/workers/taxpayers. )

Judge Fitzpatrick states "When Congress and the American public see I think the pervasiveness and the fraud and conspiracy that is shown so clearly."

One is struck by these words of "pervasiveness"-"fraud"-"conspiracy" as these words have been used at the KITCO site, to describe the actions and standards of gold/silver and paper value, and the interactions of the USofA Government, and the Federal Reserve Corporation, and Wall Street Operatives.

Well there must be a place in the future for gold and gold bugs, the fight by those against the continued use of the ARTIFICIAL TOBACCO, and the drugs used as ADDITIVES in the tobacco, have won. The time is near for gold, and those that support a financial standard, based on "We The People"

YES, I Smoke !
Copyright  1998, Canoe Limited Partnership.

March 7, 1998
Minnesota judge orders tobacco papers released

ST. PAULMinn., ( Reuters ) - A Minnesota judge Saturday ordered tobacco companies to turn over thousands of secret documents in the state's $1.77-billion lawsuit.

Fitzpatrick pointed out one research study in the contested papers that reported on youngsters' motivation for starting to smoke, their brand preferences as well as the starting behavior of children as young as five years old. "Certainly this document should have been released earlier," Fitzpatrick wrote.

"When Congress and the American public see I think the pervasiveness and the fraud and conspiracy that is shown so clearly in some of these documents they're going to demand action to truly protect kids from addiction and disease."

The state and insurance provider sued the tobacco industry to recoup costs of treating smoke-related diseases.

Defendants in the case include: The Council For Tobacco Research-U.S.A. Inc. and The Tobacco Institute Inc.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 23:37 - ID#60253)
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 22:16

mozel ( @ANOTHER ) ID#153102:

The benefits are plain to see.

But, it is not clear that gold mines would lose value. Oil wells will not, so why should gold mines ?

Mr. Mozel,

The USA placed a special windfall profits tax on domestic oil during the last major rise in prices. I do think the oil stocks would have shown a greated value had this tax not been in place. Because gold will soon become a currency, mines will be taxed in a much greater way. Also, domestic mines will be asked to sell directly to the treasury at the

preceived commodity value value of gold, plus an opperating margin. As no private company will be allowed do your treasury job, produce money. Gold in the hands of the public will be thought of as a good thing, as citizens are asked to pull own weight as the government is much under.

Are you of this mind?

(Sat Mar 07 1998 23:41 - ID#390249)
Thank you for your reply. Let's hope the German CB prevails. By the way, it is Ms. Neophyte, not Mr. Thanks again.

Bill El Zebub
(Sat Mar 07 1998 23:41 - ID#261352)
Is gold acting as game pieces like those in the game RISK? THe US buying
and moving it to S. Korea,Japan,Taiwan, and Russia? China buying and building for the future in their own sphere of influence. Is this all
political smoke and mirrors, prior to reinflation?.Screw those Trilateralists.Pass the Absolute.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 23:43 - ID#320219)
Oil getting out at the top?

Another, first I would like to thank you for your posts on the mechanisms of the oil/gold/dollar economy. I ask this question, is the move by oil to bid for gold directly a repositioning of assests out of dollars at the top of the bubble or will it be a consequence of the bursting of the dollar bubble? I put to you that it is a repositioning of the assest at the market top and will be the cause of the dollar bubble bursting wether it is blamed who knows. Your postings are good advice and I would council lurkers to consider not the advice put forth for the masses that lead to destruction but the private advice for which large sums of money are paid. The race is not to the swift but to him that completes the journey.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 23:45 - ID#60253)
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 23:41
Neophyte ( Another ) ID#390249:

My mistake! Will not use the Mr. or Ms. in the future.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 23:51 - ID#153102)
Are you aware, since you keep posting this We The People crap, that no individual of the people and hence WE THE PEOPLE, are not a party to the document known as the Constitution for the United States of America ?

If you had any sense of American history, you would recognize this war on tobacco is War of Aggression and Reconstruction continued by other means. Tobacco is the cash crop of southern states. If Canadians had to ante up for the damage done to livers and victims of "drunk" drivers by Seagrams, maybe you would get the point. But, I doubt it.

(Sat Mar 07 1998 23:58 - ID#31868)
Then I guess WE THE PEOPLE need a new Constitution.