Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 00:11 - ID#60253)

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 23:43

Logical ( Oil getting out at the top? ) ID#320219:


Yes, this journey will be as one never traveled, for many! Indeed, a fit body and strong mind will be needed to carry gold down this economic mountain! The weight of gold will cause some to fall, even as others find this load helps to place the foot firmly on ground.

Traders say, gold go to $250 or $200, if yes, then they are right and I an wrong! But, when gold turns as in a storm, I will own them for all of their days! Time will prove all things!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 00:12 - ID#431263)
ANOTHER has just told us folks to buy gold stocks, but not the domestic variety as they will be forced by the government to sell the Treasury gold at the perceived commodity price plus a small margin for extracting it! My advice is to buy LIHIR or Vengold whose mine is far away from US hegemony and SE Asian turmoil on an island of gold 360 KM off the coast of Papua New Guinea!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 00:16 - ID#153102)
@Tolerant1 @ANOTHER
@Tolerant1 Well, the only peaceful way they are going to get it is through their State Legislators.

@ANOTHER On gold mines as private or government property, I think it will depend entirely on the government of the country. In some places it will be as you suggest. In others it will not.

Lurker 777
(Sun Mar 08 1998 00:17 - ID#317247)

Are you playing the paper game and taking delivery or am I reading to much in this post?

Traders say, gold go to $250 or $200, if yes, then they are right and I an wrong! But, when gold turns as in a storm, I will own them for all of their days! Time will prove all things!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 00:19 - ID#257136)
We The People- Constitution- New Constitution
Having read mozel's posts and learning of another site which " exposes" the "con" perpetrated on the settlers of this country, I am really at a loss to understand wherefrom mozel gets his info.
Not an argument- a simple statement to the effect I am at loose ends after having studied our Constitution and the gubmnt B.S. for 24 years.
Admiralty law concept is not foreign to me and the concept of it being the one in use here is rational to me.
Helps to explain the manner in which the ( ? ) intent of the Founding Fathers has been perverted away from the Common Law.
Mozel and tolerant1, please give me some references rom which to start my own study of the points brought out by both of you.
Had I known what I do now, I could have avoided some expensive ( financially ) mistakes in my dealings with the usg a quarter century ago.
I have a number of irons in the fire and wish to save time and still be able to learn the reasons WHY!!!Go Platinum and silver.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 00:29 - ID#31868)
How could anyone buy a mining stock if you could not buy domestic shares. Everywhere is domestic for someone. Now we all know I am not that bright, but the backstop caught that wild pitch.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 00:31 - ID#335190)
Mozel @ 23:51
"We The People" ...crap...-maybe "YOU" would get the point- But, " I " also doubt it !

The USofA Constitution was established by men of property. Yes, the result was commerce is in fact "We The People". That is not to say that the FREE people that founded the America's wanted it to be so. That only commerce was considered FREE. But in fact, the good and free "People" wanted to be a FREE. They in fact escaped from other nations that had control over their individual lives, those that had come to America were not FREE but were in service of Kings. They escaped the government of FREE commerce.

These NEW Free men did not read or write, and as a result, FREE commerce used this fact against them. Yes, a lot of blood ran, freedom has a cost.

These people from europe had experienced a FREE people, they seen the First Nations People were in fact FREE. Yes, this is the reality of those that were here in America, in the service of European FREE commerce.

FREE commerce, had to kill the First Nations People, to put their imported servants in place. Example is a powerful tool, to continue FEAR.

Yes, I have a degree of understanding of the history of the USofA and also the history of Canada. The future is the place we both will be tomorrow, will we fight for freedom, or protect Bull Sh*t from the money changers, and those lackeys that serve their paper/debt money masters.

The order of present FREE men is: Be Quiet...Consume...And Die. And I do not understand "We The People". Sorry. I read the wrong literature eh!
Thanks, take care.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 00:31 - ID#31868)
It was not peaceful the first time now was it. I have always said that the courts are the way to go, that first sentence was just an historic reminder.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 00:39 - ID#60253)

Date: Sun Mar 08 1998 00:17

Lurker 777 ( ANOTHER ) ID#317247:

Sir, a day will come, when those who have sold gold they do not own, will be forced to buy it back. It is the nature of men, to once in life do a foolish deed for gain. Some walk away, with understanding. Some stay to long and are made to walk low without wealth. Today, our world is fat with stolen profits in a paper world, even as poor ones starve.

In that day, men such as I, will take from those who make simple ones hide! You will find not the lies of paper in my house.

thank you

I will be gone for a size of time.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 00:40 - ID#31868)
a.j. Hmmmmmmmmmm
I could have sworn I sent you some email. Hmmmmm, send me a note at tolerant@hotmail if you did not get it and I will provide as many links and souces of info as I have.

John Disney__A
(Sun Mar 08 1998 00:41 - ID#24135)
"windfall profits" are unconcionable (is that a word?)
For Mozel
Believe Harmony at least markets gold directly - not through
the central bank, maybe others do too. This is a point I had
not focussed on before.
I think the reserve bank here, headed by Chris Stals, is the
same as the central bank.
If ABX's customer is who we think it is, then ABX may have
set a precedent that will make NA mines largely useless as
gold investments over the long haul. NA mines will become the
servants of the Treasury Department and supply gold at a fixed
price ( in line with the great "windfall profits" scam played
on the oil industry in the 1970s )

(Sun Mar 08 1998 00:49 - ID#170304)
windfall profits
Duly noted that gov't might put windfall tax on mines if price goes
too far too fast....On the other hand...what if the gov't SUPPORTS
a certain price while other assets ( paper ) are falling ?....It
might be just as well to own gold shares in a deflation if this
were true...

(Sun Mar 08 1998 00:50 - ID#252150)
The Unpalatable Andy Smith vs The inscrutable Another
Although I don't like Smith's forecasts for POG, they are more logical& easier to understand & unfortunately will more likely come to pass, than will Another's mystical musings...Occam's Razor.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 00:55 - ID#153102)
Your remark about the courts as an avenue for redress makes me suppose you have not understood what I have posted about our situation. The courts are giving legal sanction to a federal government that is openly and avowedly on an "emergency" war footing by reason of necessity. Every revenue bill says so. Other emergency declarations are contained in messages from the President to Congress. The Supreme Court has found those war powers to be in the Constitution "by necessary implication." It has said the situation is political and not judicial. It is perfectly willing to administer martial law for a de facto federal government if the people want it. And the only way peaceful way to change this state of affairs is by action of the State Legislatures.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:03 - ID#330175)
Tolerant1....................................A.S. and the food chain
@ the bottom

(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:04 - ID#57232)
A Little Focus is needed, think.
All: With ANOTHER actively posting, and questions/answers coming to and fro, I think we need to concentrate on what is most important -- Namely the big three items: oil/gold/US dollars. The only reason I concentrate on the dollar is because it is the defacto world's currency. Personally I would prefer that the dollar was not the world's currency, because then inflation of the dollar would be easier to control.

What matters to the world economic system is thus the following:

1 ) The price of oil in ounces of gold ( real value of oil )

2 ) The price of gold in US dollars ( real value of dollar )

3 ) The strength of the US dollar, and its stability

4 ) The stability of the world equity and derivatives markets

Since the price of oil and gold are now floating relative to the price of the US dollar, all three of these are subject to supply/demand constraints, and the effects of derivatives trading.

The US dollar will probably remain strong as long as the US economy is strong, and the dollar price of oil is less than approximately $20/oz. The price of oil is likely to remain relatively low as long as we remain in this deflationary phase where SEAsian factories are idled, and the Middle East is at peace. Also -- we know that when the deflationary phase passes -- perhaps years from now -- the demand for oil will increase, but world production of oil will probably peak around 2010-2020, and then drop. That will be very bullish for oil, unless an alternative energy source is found.

I think the biggest immediate threat to the world economy right now is world-wide deflation, not inflation. Given what we have seen with gold sales associated with currency crises, I do not think the price of gold will skyrocket in the near future, although we might have some nice short-term rallies.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:05 - ID#330175)
James......................How bout mystical

John Disney__A
(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:06 - ID#24135)
You're a good man Auric
Auric ..
You are one in a thousand?? 10,000?? 100,000??
How many Americans under 30 would know those answers
or even understand the significance of the questions.
Niles was also a singer with a most unusual voice. I have
an old LP. He wrote Black is the Colour and Venezuela.
Jennifer Larmore, a throaty chick from Savannah,
celebrates an America that used to be, in teldec 16069
"My Native Land" - Its a cheap trip home and back in time.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:08 - ID#153102)
If you made inquiry into the organization of the US Treasury, I think you would be surprised at what you found. It is completely uncertain that Rubin even has a bond and oath as an officer of USG. He is the governor of international banks. Remember in the US, the Federal Reserve System is the fiscal agent of the USG.

The other side of the transactions with ABX and other NA mines is almost certainly the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, St Louis, Atlanta, etc. or member banks like Republic in NYC.

Who owns the SA Reserve Bank ?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:14 - ID#233199)
@James 00:50

Ignorance in not necessarily simplicity; not that I'm implyijg ignorance, but I am saying that an uncritical denial is no shortcut. ANOTHER seems plausible to me, but so far I face no need to choose world views.

No doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

Best wishes..

(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:16 - ID#153102)
Intentional or not, you are a disinformation agent. Your words are propaganda tokens, full of sound and fury, but signifying nothing.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:18 - ID#31868)
ah, mozel my friend, I do most certainly
understand your posts. Hmmmmmmmm. I think that the law is the way to go, and your direction of pursuit is humane, correct and that path which men of honor and truth would desire to walk.

However, the states have become nothing more than the surrogates of the corporation in the District of Columbia and suckle from the tax cow. I am unsure if this path, albeit the correct one is the one which shall bring redress to the situation.

Perhaps I will read more as to which of the states are listening the people that live there and after having read these things I may have a better method of conversing with you on the State Legislatures as they exist today.

While there is breath, there is hope, where there is hope, there are possilbilities, certainly a garden where free people could plant seeds which might create fruit which is sweet and never be allowed to sour through lies and deceit.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:20 - ID#411112)
mozel:ther is a bill currently on the books in Colorado to repel the war powers act,let's see what

happens,your guess is as good as mine....understand that most Americansstill think that Waco was a bunch of one wants to ask the question did the USA use weapons of mass destruction against it's own other words if they can't grasp this how can they they figure out the "war powers act"

John Disney__A
(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:22 - ID#24135)
Im buggerred if I know who owns the SA Reserve Bank
For Mozel ..
But you got it right... The US runs on an emergency
footing. The vocal majority with the aid of
the US legal system and the media overide the Bill
of Rights .. the Constitution .. whatever.
Listening to Clinton talk about the evils of children
smoking was the craziest think I've seen on TV in some
time. But there he was, playing it to the hilt, and
the bulk of Americans were AGREEING with him no doubt.
Imposition of the will of the majority is a fact of
life in America. Not so here thank God. Not YET
By the way, When and How did the US Government FIRST
commence raising money by issuing Government BONDS ???

(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:22 - ID#57232)
Addendum to previous post
Short term, we may have inflation in the US, but I do not think it will be serious enough to weaken the dollar significantly, given the deflationary scenario elsewhere. It remains to be seen how the world deflationary scenario will affect the US markets. We may eventually repeat the events of the twenties and thirties, where the US is last to be affected, but gets hit especially hard.

A dollar/gold conflagration in the very near future would require an unforeseen world financial crisis of some kind -- the collapse of some key world bank, war, etc.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:23 - ID#31868)
Glass of rum poured in your honor at Cuervo Central.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:25 - ID#341214)
Mozel: DoD Y2K Staff Resignation
Mozel: Please see my 03/07 19:00 post.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:30 - ID#335190)
Mozel @ 01:16
Mozel get a handle. You suggest I am an agent of disinformation.

You regard law as the path to justice. History dictates power is gotten by force. Law was only accepted after the kings were forced to agree to law. Religion was also forced to accept law.

I truy am sorry, if you consider my post to be sound and fury, and of no substance. Obviously your formal training, what ever that is, has not prepared you for the streets of reality. But, hell, we all have baggage eh!
Thanks Take care.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:30 - ID#153102)
@Thoughts on ANOTHER's Messages
I do not know why, but ANOTHER has divulged facts and commentary that are invaluable IMHO. He cannot tell us what will happen in our individual circumstances inside different countries with different governments. All markets exist within some framework of law. You know nothing of a market unless you know the law in which it operates. Nor, can he tell us the short term POG or POO or POS. But, he has told us invaluable information. I think I will compose a post on why ANOTHER's information seems so valuable to me.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:32 - ID#153102)
You post confirms the information to my satisfaction. The source of my original post was Yourdan.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:36 - ID#374211)
@ I must say ANOTHER time....
Since about November '97, Another or one his personas has been predicting this Oil/US$/Gold "thing", well what is so new about what
he is "mystically" saying? We all know the Saudis et al are fed up with
paying for US "protection" with very low Oil prices, and that at some
point in the not too distant future,that unstable ME area is bound to
"bomb" out the US and hike Oil prices, this has been written and talked about a zillion times ... The bidding for Gold directly by Oil is IMHO
a plausable scenerio, but they will get little Gold in comparison to what
the US et al have in their vaults, further to ensure that Oil does not
take up a large position in Gold, it's price will be driven up to very
very high levels. Having said that I totally disagree with the statement
that NA Mines will be worthless. This is the same Another who on or
about December '97 was boasting that all paper Gold including all
Gold mines world wide would be worthless. What utter crap! In my post
to him on Dec. 07,1997 21:36 I pointed out that in the 30's+40's NA
Governments gave out incentives to said mines to produce Gold for the State, this is not a tax on profits, on the contrary, it is a subsidy to
NA shareholders. In addition what good would it do a NA to own a
foreign Gold mine when we and the rest of the world by this time,would most certainly have foreign exchange controls, just like what good are
pre 1940 Cuban Bonds worth etc...NO this part he has all wrong....
However a good solution in any event would be to but Gold in any
physical form NOW! thereby assuring that one would have some
when the brown stuff hits the fan.....

(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:37 - ID#31868)
JTF, preface, I do not pretend to have your
understanding on these matters and that goes for many, many who post here. If my skull was any thicker I would forever be on the run from cobblers wishing to make soles for footwear that would fit infinity and eternty, oh, from Silver Surfer, they are brother and sister.

That having been said. My take is that oil/gold/USD are not the items to be concetrating on. No, I believe that the currency fire in Asia is tearing a hole in the financial balloon. Taiwan, China, and ah yes, Japan. There is the destruction of currencies and hence the balloon ( Larry Storch voice-over there ) . Look to Japan and the major bank failiures which will set into motion something which will devastate the world economy and therefore the global financial structure and international system of payments.

In my opinion that fire is currently bringing us close to extremely perilous financial times. And I feel soon, within months.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:40 - ID#57232)
Fading out
John Disney: A significant question I think -- Just how long do you think most of the South African Gold mines can stay open if gold remains at $280-290/oz? I think it is reasonable to assume that there will be more gold mine shutdowns around the world if we do not have a gold rally very soon. Thanks -- wish I didn't have to ask, but gold is not especially lively these days.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:44 - ID#224149)
Welcome to all idiots
Away for a few weeks and more idiots have recognized another ------Away to the slumber Gods

John Disney__A
(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:46 - ID#24135)
The One Eyed Man is King .. but what does he see ??
For Robnoel..
Yes you are right .. Americans are so conditioned by
the media that they really just want to be told WHAT
to think so they stay out of trouble.
Schools now even teach that concensus is the way to
get along, and that individual thought is WRONG.
Frankly, I see NO sign or hope for any popular uprising
of any kind. The last real battles were in the 1960s.
The Government backed down. It decided it would kill
less people and concentrate on taking their money and
staying in power instead. It only kills people that it
sees as a direct threat to its sovereinty.
Look at Europe .. Its introducing ANOTHER layer of
Government in Brussels.. as if they didnt have enough
Only some form of financial disaster can bring this thing
down .. and that's what they have the army for.
For Tzadeak .. It does not surprise me that you disagree
on NA mines.
In fact it reassures me.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:47 - ID#153102)
I maintain a distinction between a Mushroom and a Mushhead. What do you think you are accomplishing by inciting with disinformation ? Are you fantasizing about arousing a mob of street people ?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 01:48 - ID#57232)
I think we are saying the same thing
tolerant1: I agree with you -- the threat is the worldwide deflation. Serial currency devaluations, probably eventually coming to roost in the US. A likely repeat of the 20's and 30's.

What I was trying to do was to channel the discussion of oil/gold/US dollar into a meaningful discourse, rather than the myriad of posts today. But -- I think I'm a little late for that.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 02:04 - ID#31868)
JTF, hmmmmmmm
Otay, hence my having many different coins sizes in gold and silver. You and SDRer and others lose me on the pricing of anything after we get to that point. Partly cause at this juncture in history technology is outpacing many of the old needs, countries and corporations will adapt quickly.

In The Great Reckoning they mention that the oil producers and companies could get hammered this time around because things have changed drastically from 1929.

John Disney__A
(Sun Mar 08 1998 02:04 - ID#24135)
Things are not what they seem ...
This is ground thats been covered before .. perhaps
you weren't reading then.
RSA mines .. despite conventional wisdom to the
contrary .. have the LOWEST average costs in the world.
They also have little debt.
There are several individual mines that are high cost
( such as Lorraine ) that should close. Also Libanon and
Leeudoorn that are "carried" by Kloof. But they are all
now hedging along with the NA mines and the Australians
but not at such juicy levels. Few NA mines make money
now even with their hedged production. The real
question is when will THEY start closing.
Should gold remain at say 300 for say 10 years, and
all the hedges slowly roll over until they reach the
spot price, the RSA mines will be the only ones left
standing.. along with the Nevada strip.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 02:05 - ID#153102)
That bill serves only the purpose of raising awareness. It cannot accomplish anything else.
The people of a number of States have been thwarted over Term Limits. In Colorado, they were thwarted over an amendment to the State Constitution. In California their initiatives are being thwarted.
They obviously do not understand the Constitution.
States have no rights. States have powers. No State was compelled into unemployment insurance and social security. The door is open anytime the people make their State Legislature walk out the way they came in.
The States must assert their civil authority together to get us out of this mess without a catastrophe.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 02:06 - ID#57232)
I think we differ on one item -- when. I think it will be more than several months
tolerant1: I think the Oldman is right about the strength of the US markets -- for the near future at least. So I do not expect the collapse that you are referring to -- in the near future. I am thinking that the US markets may enter a period of increased turmoil, but no outright collapse for some time to come.

What would happen if Japan and Europe started really going south? There would be a 'flight to safety' in US dollars/US equities. Gold and gold stocks might rally -- not because of what ANOTHER is referring to, but simply because of increased insecurity.

So -- I think we agree on what will happen -- US deflation. We just disagree on when.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 02:12 - ID#233199)
@JTF re: 1:22

"A dollar/gold conflagration in the very near future would require an unforeseen world financial crisis of some kind -- the collapse of some key world bank, war, etc. "

Unforseen by whom?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 02:12 - ID#57232)
Thanks -- goodnight all!
John Disney: I appreciate your comments -- I was wondering why the South African gold stocks wern't rising with the other gold producers in the current gold equity mini-rebound we are experiencing.

If you had posted all of that before, I apologize for not being more attentive.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 02:12 - ID#335190)
Mozel @ 01:47
"Street People" are citizen's, thrown on the scrap heap of life, used up, burned out. Many can be found to have been war/army veterans. workers, executives etc. a cross section of any good community. Down on their luck,used up, of no use, family and friends are gone, no strength to fight back.

Fantasizing has never been a forte of mine. Why not address the issue's raised.

My personality ( Mushroom-Mushhead ) has little to nothing to do with the control of your freedom, and the best course of action to resolve the lose of freedoms of you and me. You make much ado about the USofA Constitution and the Civil War. Gold is the subject, and how it impacts the financial well being of our respective countries.

Yes, you are doing your best to inform us at this site, regarding your take on how we citizens are confronted with the challenges facing each of us, as to our investments and belief in gold. I also am doing the same, yet, your form of understanding is the best take. I do not believe so.

I suggest we both are miles behind, and lost, and those central bankers and their lackeys are playing us for suckers. And we most likely are, when referenced to the standards they use to measure FREEDOM.
Thanks Take Care.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 02:16 - ID#341214)
Mozel: Here is a bit more on the DoD Y2K Resignation
Mozel: This is from Gary North's site. His post is dated 02/06/1998 but I had wanted to find another reference to both Yourdon's and North's posts. This is one of those situations that, I think, speaks for itself.

The Three Key Y2K Officials Resign

Anthony Valletta has resigned. As the Department of Defense's Acting Secretary for Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence, he was in charge of the y2k repairs. Two other key people have also resigned. Here is the assessment of the Information Technology Association of America ( ITAA ) in its y2k report for Feb. 6.

* * * * * *

At DoD, the Valletta departure caps an exodus which also includes Cynthia Rand, principal director for information management, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense/C3I; and ASD/C3I IT Director Sam Worthington. "There's no one left running Year 2000 for Defense," said one industry observer, adding, "No one is well placed to make decisions. You can't have GS 14 and 15s running around getting this job in a big agency like DoD.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 02:20 - ID#153102)
USG issued gold bonds prior to War of Northern Aggression. See Texas v White. In 1840's US trade was paid in silver per Tyler's letter to the Emperor of China. I think after the SF mint opened after 1849, gold entered the USG's finances.

Who owns SA Reserve Bank is a very important question. Why will not SA mines be the target of confiscatory taxation like Canadian and Australian are likely to be ?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 02:20 - ID#57232)
Unforseen crisis --
SWP1: I was referring to what might happen if some key world bank has a currency crisis of some kind, like the Rothschild's Austrian Kredistaten bank in the 30's. Triggered a world - wide banking crisis. Completely unexpected, apparently.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 02:22 - ID#228454)
Read title Money of the Mind by James Grant, of Grant's Interest Rate Advisor. I cannot give you the no. for the book, for I have lent it to my banker. Apparently six weeks to read a book is a vast time horizon for a banker. WHO KNOWS ANYTHING ABOUT "MINING INVESTMENT COLLEGE"?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 02:25 - ID#31868)
Adios from Cuervo Central

(Sun Mar 08 1998 02:33 - ID#233199)
@JTF (Unforseen crisis -- )

Couldn't a derivatives meltdown result in a banking meltdown? We've got that on our horizon at least,......

(Sun Mar 08 1998 02:34 - ID#153102)
You are still posting disinformation mush and romaticizing street people and feather people and generally inciting to no constructive purpose. Gold and silver coin are central to restoring the civil authority of the States in the country south of Canada. If you know nothing of the law in which a market exists, you know nothing about the market. Why don't you incite the Canadians with your disinformation for a change ? Or go lead a free nation riot in Quebec ?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 02:58 - ID#335190)
Mozel @ 2:34
Mozel: Mushrooms-R-Us. Thick as a board. Safety is living in the past.

Tell your story about disinformation to the war dead, and destroyed lives. Leading a nation, never can happen. Hitler was created by the times, Hitler did not create the times. Yes, with considerable financial help from the money interests of the USofA, not the "People".

Is it possible that you are a supporter of those that believe in benevolent dictatorship. I raise this as a question, I suspect that your take, and usage of words, make me consider that this is the reason you are so positive, your take on any subject, is a perfect solution.

Hey, on a positive not, mush leads to good booze eh!
Thanks Take Care.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 03:06 - ID#284255)
ANOTHER's transcripts updated

For those of you who love or hate ANOTHER - please enjoy.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 03:20 - ID#284255)
Another renter sold.
Yahoo! Just sold another one.
Another big slice of my debt all gone.
Slowly but surely the burden disappears.
The bank manager shakes his head in wonder.
So do most of our friends.
Why sell they say.

Oh to be debt free and footloose and fancy free.
Soon, oh soon, to trip the sands of the empty beaches of OZ.

Soon, so soon to hold my first precious within my fingers.
With no debts but my family's welfare to enjoy.

I wish to walk the beaches a free man.
Rather than to work endlessly for the debt collecter.
Oh, if I could but have back the interest the bank has collected.
No wonder the manager can't smile, the crocodile smile no more.

Many thanks to the many contributors of Kitco.
For from the depths of these pages
Has a vision sprung supreme.
To be debt free and a free man before chaos can strike it all away.

I too, had too much debt over too many assets.
And they are falling away faster than gold rises.
Soon to turn my debts to gold.

Away to the BBQ with a glass of vino.
Thank you all.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 03:21 - ID#153102)
You are a fountain of disinformation on every topic you touch. It's MASH not mush.

We already have the constitutional dictatorship form of government in the USA and I'm not running for President. I am sharing knowledge of facts of law about the Constitutional significance of silver and gold coin for Americans in their market. There are enough paid disinformation agents sowing confusion that the incitements of unpaid disinformants like yourself are superfluous.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 03:29 - ID#255151)

Congratulations, mate! Enjoy the freedom and the feeling. You've earned it, my friend.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 03:29 - ID#335190)
Mush ( up ) verb: syn Crush 2 ) becrush, bruise, "MASH",pulp, squash.

Take Care

Strad Master
(Sun Mar 08 1998 03:32 - ID#250297)
Gas Prices
ALL: Just got through reviewing the posts from the last few days and it seems Oil was mentioned a lot. With the price down now and possibly going lower, it struck me that it wasn't so long ago ( last summer, if I recall correctly ) that gasoline prices were "soaring" and there were calls all over the place for "Congressional Inquirys" regarding collusion between the Big Oil Companies to fix prices and screw the public. Now that prices for gas are ( at least in LA ) at or below $1 per gallon, the silence regarding collusion of Big Oil Companies to drive the price DOWN is deafening! How about a Congressional Inquiry into THAT, eh? The point of all this is to illustrate that most of the public hasn't a clue regarding market forces or the vagaries of supply and demand. If a two week spike in gas prices above $1.50 ( due to legitimate supply tightness ) could drive everyone nuts, just think what could happen if and when the equities market slumps appreciably, and some REAL money vanishes like a puff of exhaust fumes!

Time for bed...

(Sun Mar 08 1998 03:34 - ID#153102)
MASH is a noun.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 03:37 - ID#335190)
I am gone. No more needs to be said. I give you the floor.
Take Care.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 03:46 - ID#153102)
6pak ( Mozel @ 2:34 ) ID#335190:
"... mush leads to good booze eh!"

As I said, MASH is a noun.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 03:47 - ID#257148)
One is enslaved by debt, liberated by gold.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 04:04 - ID#153102)
I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that the only gold mine shares worth owning are in companies with properties in the USA and of those Barrick is starting to look good to me because of its senior advisors, Bush, Jordan, and Baker.

S.A. might be a special situation because of the clout of the mining industry. I hope JohnD digs into that. If they can only get to market through a Department of Money Central Bank, that's not good.

Canada looks in a fair way to be likely virtually to nationalize mining. Why else have they sold all their gold ? And Australia seems awfully socialist from here. Do you understand the chat about a Republic ?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 04:16 - ID#198170)
anOTHER thoughts
21 The crucible is for silver and the furnace for gold, And a man is tested by the praise accorded him.
22 Though you pound a fool in a mortar with a pestle along with crushed grain, Yet his folly will not depart from him.

Food for thought

(Sun Mar 08 1998 04:57 - ID#316193)
We Are At The Point - What Happened In 1971 Is Unwinding

(Sun Mar 08 1998 05:06 - ID#266105)

Popfizz. Damn good music, you woulda had to've been there
Lotus power.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 05:10 - ID#198170)
Davos Discussion = Dizzy Derivatives
This is from Monday's issue of Barron's. Excuse me for posting the whole thing but it really is a significant piece. It's incredible how complicated derivatives and the gold price market are getting. It's also something to see the large mining companies struggle to get out of the fix they've gotten them in through forward sales. Forward sales have helped some of their current bottom lines but it really makes for a mess overall.

Just Call It GoldPEC
Miners scheme to prop up the yellow metal

By Cheryl Strauss Einhorn
Key Commodity Indexes
Desperate times lead to desperate measures. Just ask the gold producers. After all, last year, the market capitalization of all the world's gold companies fell 35%, to $46 billion from $71 billion. This means that investors are putting a lower valuation on the whole industry than they are on, say, Gillette.
As a result, some major miners have put together a plan to prop up prices. But both its legality and potential effectiveness appear rather shaky.
Hatched during private discussions dating back to Christmastime, a few of the most senior executives at the world's premier gold companies planned a consortium to privately buy bullion from central banks that sell the metal. Dumping of gold by the central bankers has been cited as a factor in gold's long swoon, which has pushed the metal's price below $300 an ounce.
The private sales proposed by the miners wouldn't be announced to the public, and the consortium would pay market prices -- or more -- in an effort to stabilize the metal's value. While the companies themselves don't know how long they might hold gold purchased from central banks, they say they would dispose of it in an orderly way, so as not to disrupt the market. Companies that have participated in the talks include: Barrick Gold, Newmont Mining, Placer Dome and Anglo American Gold Investment.
The plan may not be overtly illegal, but it stretches the definition of a cartel and could bump up against U.S. securities and antitrust laws. For instance, antitrust laws make it illegal for buyers of sufficient size to try to influence prices by agreeing to remove supplies from the market. And tampering with prices is price-fixing. "It is clear to me that a buying program -- or a selling program -- designed for the purpose of stabilizing prices of gold is illegal," says an antitrust attorney at the Department of Justice. "That's classic Section 1 of the Sherman Antitrust Act, which prohibits price-fixing."
Unlike OPEC, the would-be oil cartel, whose participants are all sovereign nations, the gold purchasers include American and Canadian companies whose shares trade publicly in the States -- all subject to U.S. securities and antitrust laws.

Since its heyday almost two decades ago, gold has had a very bumpy ride. Now producers have hatched a plan to privately buy gold sold by central banks to prop up prices. Will it fly legally?
Another difference: While the OPEC nations are solely sellers of petroleum, the gold companies would be both producing metal and buying it back -- with shareholders' money. Investors buy shares in gold miners because they want a piece of the sellers' profits. Clearly, buying back gold would undercut profitability. It also wouldn't cure the overhang of the yellow metal. It simply would move the overhang from central banks to mining companies. And if any purchases were to occur, such a material change in a mining company's business plan -- essentially going from selling to playing the role of broker -- would have to be disclosed to shareholders. And none has yet informed its shareholders of this possibility.
Further consideration would have to be given to how miners that have bought gold would sell it. For instance, one U.S. government official considers a phrase such as an "an orderly sale" -- which has been used by a number of people in connection with the plan -- to be a tip-off of classic price-fixing. "If they are deciding the timing and quantity of a sale of the gold, that is classic fixing, too," this official adds.
In an interview last week, John Willson, chief executive of Placer Dome, confirmed the plan's existence. "Our meetings have been very private," he added. "The purchases by the industry of central bank gold positions would eliminate the view of the public that central bank sales are damaging because they'd be taken up by gold companies, I hope."
Moreover, Willson says, "the market would not know about the sale." Again, he repeated, "we would absorb it and the market would not be aware of the sale. The gold therefore would not be an overhang on the market and wouldn't have the same effect it is having now. Presuming that worked, it would eliminate the fear the market has about the central banks offloading a whole bunch of gold."
The reason, Willson explains, why "there is the potential to accommodate the central banks if and when they want to sell gold" is that "most of the gold companies are in short positions themselves, having sold forward a bunch of their production up to 10 years ahead."
Here's how Willson says it would work: "Central banks would let the group of companies know they wanted to offload gold, and we would swap our positions -- that is, our forward contracts -- for that gold and take it at the time. That way, it would not be another piece of gold overhanging the market because we would have taken the position."
Protection From Declines
What this means is that the miners would finance their purchases of central bank gold by selling hedged positions that producers already had in the market, protecting their future production from price declines.
And then? "Frankly, I don't know what we'd do with the gold at this point," he admits.
When asked how much the producers would pay, Willson said he hoped it would be the market price. Asked why central banks would agree to a private sale for the same price they could command for a public one, he replied: "Because in that way the gold would not be getting out into the market because it would be staying within the confines of the gold producers." Still, he did acknowledge that the banks might demand a premium.
Would the purchases actually stabilize prices? Willson concedes that he doesn't know, adding, however, that sales by central banks "have a psychological effect on the market" that the purchases might offset.
And Peter Munk, Barrick's chairman and chief executive, speaking at a meeting of central bankers that began in Davos, Switzerland, in January, stated in no uncertain terms that "if you would like to sell, let us get together; nobody can do a better job of monetizing your holdings than us producers," according to the text of his speech, which was acquired by Barron's.
In the printed text, Munk goes on to give the following example: "Barrick Gold has a hedge book of some $4 billion, that is 10 million ounces. And we are just one of the many who could cover this position and absorb your surplus. We could monetize your reserves, if that is what you desire." Again he emphasized, "we producers can sit down and do a deal with you."
When Barron's called Barrick and requested another copy of the speech, the version sent didn't include this section.
As for Newmont, its chairman and chief executive, Ronald Cambre, admits that the consortium idea "has surfaced" and "was discussed ... in Davos, Switzerland." But he says, "U.S. producers are restricted by antitrust laws against pricefixing." Still, he says, as far as producers getting together, "we're a small industry and we talk about what is in the best interest of our product. But this is not a rich enough industry for producers to step up and buy a lot of gold from central banks."
Yet Cambre goes on to explain how the plan might be executed. "The producers discussed at Davos ways of dealing with gold to support it. It is our view that orderly sales would fix the problem. One way to do that is to sell to a producer who had a hedged position, or to an institution, and put the gold into the market in an orderly manner. The concept is that if you want to sell, say, three million ounces, why don't you put the gold into the market in an orderly manner over a three-year period without being disruptive or dumping the whole three million at once? Do it in an orderly manner where you feed it in and not hit the market cold."
Veteran politicians, such as Brian Mulroney, the former Prime Minister of Canada, who is now working for Barrick Gold, are participating in the effort to make the plan a reality, too. In fact, Mulroney and Peter Munk recently traveled to South Africa, a major gold producer, and asked that nation's president, Nelson Mandela, to endorse the proposal. Mandela is said to have rejected the request. Several managers of gold-stock portfolios interviewed by Barron's view the plan as desperate and unlikely to work. Says SoGen Gold fund manager Jean-Marie Eveillard: "I find it bizarre, especially since some mining companies have contributed to the decline in prices by forward selling. This would be the complete reverse gear. Plus, the purchases would only move gold from weak hands to other weak hands."
In all, the scheme raises a lot of questions. Would purchases by gold producers stabilize prices for more than a short time? Would they merely create a new supply overhang? Would a policy of "buying high and selling low" help the industry or further strain its already diminishing financial resources and create additional operating losses? And does the public have a right to know when its government sells gold reserves? Obviously, producers believe that announced gold sales coming from central banks are far more detrimental to prices than their own forward sales. Otherwise, why would they want to subsidize the central banks? One thing is certain: Industry participants fear that gold prices could skid lower than what it costs even the most efficient miners to produce the metal. In short, all that's glimmering on the gold scene these days is fear.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 05:22 - ID#316193)
The Barron's story is fascinating. It must be the next classic
in the saga of the great gold squeeze of 1998! Thanks for

(Sun Mar 08 1998 05:31 - ID#266105)
@orderly: gold/silver/brass/iron

Brazen hussy/layladylay.


(Sun Mar 08 1998 05:37 - ID#198170)
The story is fascinating. I must say I don't have a clue how all this is going to flesh out. Each of us could dream up some cockeyed scenario that would result in a marked increase in the price of gold, but I really don't think anyone ( or ANOTHER ) really knows where all this is going to go. We ( the whole global economic community ) are really in virgin territory which has been prostituted by many for the purpose of short term gratification. What the longterm implications are going to be I really don't know. We may well muddle along for years and "get through this", but we may not and the doom and gloomers may be proven right. Caution is definitely advised.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 05:45 - ID#316193)
All I can say is the miners that have sold short are going to
get what they deserve!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 06:05 - ID#252127)
Another made it very me

Bullion and bullion coin are the safest road to travel.

When gold's value relative 'to all things' rises wouldn't just bullion be enough; and warns about the likely nationalization or heavy taxation of the mines.

Considering the above and from my point of view the best countries for mining investments seem to be the USA, Canada and Australia.

Chile looks to be OK, but past events in Latin and South America leave me wondering.

To much uncertainty in Africa and the former Soviet Union to even consider for mining investment for me.

Canada has a strong mining tradition and if its past is prelude, I see no problem.

Canada and Australia with large sparsely populated land masses are well endowned with minerals and expertise, their industry can easily outdo any government nationalization initiative.

The US/Canada/Australian governments will probably tax unfairly if gold rises greatly relative to things, but when compared with the rest of the globe they are the best bets. That is IMHO.

Another surely makes an excellent case for the physical metal over the mining shares.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 06:28 - ID#198170)
I'm glad things are clear to you. I definitely feel that the prospect of sharply higher gold prices could be envisioned, but it may just be a "vision". I'm certainly covered in regard to that scenario and don't care much for the doldrums gold has entered, but I'm not convinced that any nation ( even Middle Eastern ) will have the hutzpah to rock the boat in such a way that the scenario envisioned by ANOTHER comes about. It's a great scenario but pulling it off will be like sailing the straits of Magellan in a gail in a galley with the GPS, Loran and radar nonfunctional.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 06:33 - ID#329157)
Fed Res Bank of Cleveland said low POG reflects strength of dollar-
denominated assets and world stock markets:
So if dollar assets and world stock markets plunge...
This is an unusual point of view for a Fed source.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Mar 08 1998 07:05 - ID#347447)
Greetings all. Corporate duties have kept me from kitco recently, but in sweeping thru the previous posts, I would only comment on what appear to be the 2 most important stories here. 1 - Another. Another continues to stir a worthwile exchange that not only has stimulated kitcoite imaginations as to all the possible scenariuos relating to gold, oil and the great necessities, but the "proper" form in which to hold gold. While I myself am a shareholder in mining companies like most at kitco, and an officer and director in such an enterprise ( a considerable devotion of time and enery, thus a major investment, so to speak, for little me ) I must agree, in theory, principle and all practicality, that owning gold bullion, probably in nicely divisible form like coin, is the best way to hedge against the unknown horrors that governments and the fallout created by their stupidity, wreak upon humanity from time to time. Mining shares may be confiscated at the source. The mines cannot be hidden, nor can the certificates of incorporation of their owners. Corporate profits can be taxed, and operations managed from afar by government stooges. Trading may be halted, and all right to own bullion taken away at the stroke of a pen. This is all true. Only bullion in hand has a chance of being hidden and retained, thus preserving for its owner any benefit that accrues to the price of gold itself. The TRUE price. And make no mistake, just as the Dow went from 1000 to 8000 in this cycle of barely 2 decades, so will gold multiply 8 fold, or more, in the coming asset inversion. Just look at the past, and the future will become clear.

and 2 - the Barron's story about the major mining companies seeking to make arrangements with government to buy treasury bullion is so very very sad. For if currency were backed by gold this most insidious form of fascism would not be allowed to take root. This will lead, ultimately, if in any way successful an arrangement, to a legal and structural interrelationship between gold miners and government that will do irreparable harm to the citizenry when the sh*t hits the fan in one scenario or another ( no pun intended ) each and all of which are so eloquently and dynamically offered, examined and reviewed at kitco. Get me a YOUNG Alan Greenspan! This one is of no use to anyone who believes in liberty any longer. Ayn Rand must be spinning in her grave, God ( she'll pardon the expression ) rest her soul.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Mar 08 1998 07:07 - ID#347447)
Can I get a "TM" after my name too?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 07:48 - ID#284255)
Analysts say that politically, it pays to be vague.
Auric / Aurator
Thanks, mates.
Vague economic plan gives China scope for latitude
China sees jobless swelling by 3.5 million in 1998
Moderately strong quake hits north of Tokyo
Lots of quakes in CALIFORNIA
Indonesia's Suharto questions IMF objectives
CSFB warns HK economy may deteriorate late 1998
Indonesia ruling party blocks mention of crisis

(Sun Mar 08 1998 07:49 - ID#26793)
Suharto says IMF plan will destroy "family values"

(Sun Mar 08 1998 07:54 - ID#284255)
Silver report & Buffet>
This base, in our opinion, will serve as a springboard, propelling silver prices to possibly test its 1987 high of $11.25.

Also worth a look:

(Sun Mar 08 1998 07:57 - ID#238295)
mining shares
Rarely have I seen as much nonsense on this forum as the last 12 hours. The idea that mining shares will not be good investments if gold soars is totally absurd. If this is true, how come mining shares rally strongly every time POG moves up a few bucks and visa versa?

Some form of government control or excess profits tax is indeed conceivable if the POG skyrockets. But mining shares ( and especially the lesser hedged shares ) will have huge upward moves before that happens.

The main problem now is the low gold price. If that is resolved, don't worry about your mining share investments. But if that isn't resolved then mining shares could still drop considerably further.

BYW, the author of that Barron's piece is a well known gold bear. So beware the negative "spin".

(Sun Mar 08 1998 08:26 - ID#341189)
Mike Sheller
On the rummor that the mining co.s are shopping for the CB sales - could they be planning to cover their forward positions? Barrick, for one would book $600 million or so profit. The co.s could in one swoop remove two of the overhead barriers to gold price. Just wondering.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 08:28 - ID#284255)
"It's cataclysmic from Compaq's point of view."
Avid chatter:
--the charts looks like we are gonna be in for some pretty wild days ahead....buckle up folks and please wear a crash helmet .... looks like we are right on schedule for the rendez-vous with destiny toward the end of March....
--This is a market which does not pay attention to "bad" news. Fundamentally, a classic definition of a bull market. They key to the next BIG downdraft ( last Thursday was a pipsqueek downdraft ) will be the day the market does not pay attention to GOOD news. Fundamentally, that is the sign of a short-term top. This ties in very well with SWT's excellent advice of betting on the unexpected. Has zip to do with T/A, but it is excellent advice from the Forrest Gump Center for Higher Learning and Retained Earnings.
-- I think "everybody" is expecting record earnings further out. Also expecting low interest rates and no inflation to continue. If "everybody" starts to have doubts about the projections, P/E's will fall. But as sw said, it isn't working that way now. Greed is a powerful emotion. But, FEAR is the most powerful. Gread, doubt, fear, dispair. I think we are about to enter the "doubt" phase.
--usually bear markets begin when record earnings are reported; I went to the library and looked uo the wall street journal headlines on the exact top day of the 70-74 bear market "IBM earnings up 30%" seems like everyone is expecting bad earnings to start this bear...what gives? what am I not seeing?
--From Market Watch in Barrons: ( edited ) "Consumer confidence highest in 30 years. Last time it reached these levels was October 1968. That month was the exact top of the market advance. Dow lost 36 percent in the following 18 months."
--From that same Barron's article: " People are not optimistic because they are going to buy stocks, they are optimistic because they ALREADY HAVE bought stocks."
-- Investors Intellegence- Bulls:48% Bears 27% Consensus Index - Bullish 78% AAII Index- Bulls 53% Bears 13% Market Vane- 66% bulls ( take your pick )

(Sun Mar 08 1998 08:35 - ID#253389)
Mike Sheller - copyrights?
You've probably noticed by now ( it took me a couple posts with my "copyright" present ) that there are three bullets below your password entry spot. It comes up with Author/Kitco as the default. I'll have to remember each time to check "no one" since I'm of the opinion ( and probably not the only one by far ) that I don't have anything to say worth being copyrighted.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 08:36 - ID#284255)
"Be prepared. Protect yourself."
Think, too, about this: The worst bear markets historically have depressed stocks not for months but for years.

Could be why gold will soar over the years come.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 08:46 - ID#284255)
Joke for the day:
A very elderly couple is having an elegant dinner to celebrate
their 75th wedding anniversery. The old man leans forward and
says softly to his wife "Dear, there is something that I must ask

It has always bothered me that our tenth child never quite looked
like the rest of our children. Now I want to assure you that these
75 years have been the most wonderful experience I could have ever
hoped for, and your answer can not take that all that away. But,.. I
must know, did he have a different father?"

The wife drops her head, unable to look her husband in the
eye, she paused for moment and then confessed. "Yes. Yes he did."

The old man is very shaken, the reality of what his wife
was admitting hit him harder than he had expected. With a tear in
his eye he asks "Who?.. Who was he? Who was the father?"

Again the old woman drops her head, saying nothing at first
as she tried to muster the courage to tell the truth to her husband.

Then, finally, she says "You".

Mike Sheller
(Sun Mar 08 1998 08:54 - ID#347447)
Yes, I just noticed today the copyright option. I finally figured it out and don't prefer the copyright myself - it gets a little pretentious and pompous don't you think? - except that it seems to be the default on the posting program, and everyone will please pardon me if I just elect to have one less damn thing to click on with my mouse these days.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Mar 08 1998 08:56 - ID#347447)
maybe its ain't the default after all. maybe it's my fault!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 09:07 - ID#26793)
Russia to issue mark bonds due to short supply of dollars after Asia crisis

Mike Sheller
(Sun Mar 08 1998 09:13 - ID#347447)
Carl, maybe I'm stupid ( no...let me rephrase that...I KNOW I am stupid ) but it costs miners roughly anywheres from $200 to 280-300 to mine an ounce of gold. Buying it from the central banks at less than production cost would be neat, except that would mean that the open market price was down there too. That might be a nice way to "invest" in gold for miners, laying up a supply without anyone getting their hands dirty, but it would not make sense . Especially if they buy it at "market" price. If the goal is to "buy at market price" to stabilize gold, that is totally illogical. Market price IS what it is, and if it is declining, it does not matter from WHOM one buys the commodity. If gold is destined to go that low, then the world has indeed become totally unrecognizeable, there is a great plot and conspiracy to plunder us all, and we are truly in a "new era" and it is "different this time." And I have a nice bridge I would like to sell somebody. Mining goild would become impossible, and the miners would quickly run out of cash for lack of product to sell at a profit, so that cash to buy gold from central banks would quickly evaporate. Then central banks would be the prime source of gold to commodity brokers for industrial use. Period. Only the gold bears would be happy, and gold would settle at roughly $150 per ounce and be strictly commodified. Eventually the central banks would sell all their gold, above ground metal would be absorbed into its industrial uses, and mining would have to resume to replenish supply.
Might take a while for something like THAT to play out.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 09:13 - ID#330175)
Tolerant1(1:23)---missed yer post(had already passed OUT)
but there's always!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 09:15 - ID#26793)
U.S. Slowdown ahead, employment trend to reverse, we've seen the last good report.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 09:15 - ID#330175)
Poorboys...............Welcome back from your vacation but what does CUBA have-
that Cape Breton doesn't???---

Mike Sheller
(Sun Mar 08 1998 09:22 - ID#347447)
Re "drought" of dollars due to Asia crisis: If I remember correctly, it was the "dollar scarcity" for "emerging" or then so-called "third world" nations which was a political stimulant of the global dollar inflation of the 1960's and 70's. As long as the dollar is the world's foremost currency, it will doubtless be multiplied at whatever rate appears necessary by the financial crisis du jour. Asia seems to be a biggie, considering the usually taciturn Alan Greenspan's warning regarding same. Roll the presses.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 09:26 - ID#26793)
Oil price drop is the fault of OPEC and the UN says Egyptian Minister

(Sun Mar 08 1998 09:31 - ID#26793)
@Mike Sheller
I think they mean by dollar drought that bankers are beginning to be afraid to lend to those who they don't feel can pay them back. Are you saying they will nationalize trees too to get enough paper to print money?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 09:40 - ID#26793)
Asia is causing the worst crisis of this century

(Sun Mar 08 1998 09:45 - ID#398105)
Mike Sheller ...........

There was some interesting news concerning the IMF not forthcoming with a US$ 4 billion part of the package to Indonesia.

Bankers will "freely" loan out all the US$ that they can off load, the issue now is who wants to inherit more debt via the US$.

I would tend to suggest that the Central Banks will not now loan physical, and perhaps not paper gold.

It's all becoming like a game of "Pass the Parcel", and now a days you don't even need an Irish Pub !!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 09:46 - ID#26793)
Asian crisis clobbers Australia

(Sun Mar 08 1998 09:51 - ID#31868)
Kinda figured it was smoke detector backlash that got ya.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 09:56 - ID#341189)
Mike Sheller -
You're anything but stupid to point out to me the fact that the market is the market and it doesn't matter where the gold comes from, the market will price it. But I don't think the Majors are stupid either, especially Barrick. I'm just wondering if they are having a change of heart about being in the business of lending out money they have received from selling borrowed gold, instead of their real business of mining gold. If so, they could go into the market and buy gold and cover their positions. Or they might snag the gold that the CB's were going to sell anyway ( using the money they had been lending out ) and hold it off the market thus forgoing their interest, but managing the price upward. I would think such a strategy would be at least psychologically very bullish for gold.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 09:57 - ID#398105)
OLD GOLD (mining shares)........

I would tend to agree with you. Gold exploration and mining carry reasonable risk, it is not easy.

In Kalgoorlie we tend to feel that we have had our recession, things could get worse but they can only improve radically upon a gold price rally - even to US$350 per ounce. Money to be made.

The Aussie gold price is still reasonably static around AU$ 440, so most efficient operating companies are making the order of AU$100 profit - 25% return, which is not too bad.

I have a mate who is a Director is the Philippines, who at the Victoria Mine ( one of the worlds big ones ) still carry a 50% profit margin in US$ - much more in the local currency.

Good Old Kalgoorlie..............Gold is not dead, it's just having a "wee" nap ?!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 09:57 - ID#26793)
Can't get this Kissinger/ Radio Free Europe URL to work. Here is the summary
Kissinger says he has no quarrel with the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) and it's
quick action to forestall impending financial crises. "If you magnify these insecurities sufficiently," he
said, "you can get a flight of capital that exceeds anything the IMF can put in."
First found: 6 Mar 1998 ( Related Articles )

(Sun Mar 08 1998 09:58 - ID#330175)
Tolerant1..................No I ducked but the pieces are still----
on the much for the mindless chirping!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 10:02 - ID#26793)
Here is the Kissinger, IMF, Capital flight story

(Sun Mar 08 1998 10:04 - ID#31868)
and now, why the media is stupid and the Coward Erect
is an idiot. Fact - the media have not attacked economic issues. Fact - the Coward Erect called the Asia crisis a " Glitch." The media have yet to pick up on this and run any pieces which explain why the ZZ Top Tube Steak Boogie Coward Erect has no clue whatsoever about the real world of economics. Media, Coward Erect - worthless, pigs bred in the same sty.

I have zero sympathy for the people that feed on the teat of the District of Columbia tax cow. And to those I have met in Manhattan that are enjoying their riches, I say get away from my car, I did not ask you to clean my windshield. It will be easy to tell them from the long suffering in the streets. They will be the ones on Mill Dam Street that approach my car wearing a pair of the SAME shoes, and Guccis at that.

Good morning all.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 10:07 - ID#432157)

More positive comments on Gold comning out in the media in the Toronto area. Brian Costello and Toronto Star like resource stocks .

(Sun Mar 08 1998 10:11 - ID#398105)

"All I can say is the miners that have sold short are going to
get what they deserve!"

You must remember that gold exploration, mining and finance attracts ALL SORTS. I know of numerous cases where there are financial investors directly involved in exploration companies, ans it would be of no surprise to find certain gentlemen who carry short positions on the basis of "non-robust" mineable reserves.

I hope they get what they deserve - either a large profit by picking the market correctly, or going up in flames by picking it wrong.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 10:15 - ID#26793)
Citibank a likely big loser in derivatives, S&P index shakeout this Spring & more

(Sun Mar 08 1998 10:27 - ID#31868)
Donald_A in the Kissinger piece you left out
one main item in your synopsis. Kissinger does not want an independant, thinking Korea, he wants them in the fold of globalization/domination, it is a very cleverly crafted propaganda piece for the IMF and the bankers.

Look to who pays Kissinger, a waterboy in my opinion, for his advice at his "consulting" firm and you will find all the answers in one listing to tell you all about him.

If Kissinger was any more of a puppet you would see the strings on camera.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 10:30 - ID#26793)
Dipsters ready to move back into hot Russian stocks(????

(Sun Mar 08 1998 10:34 - ID#320219)
which creditor will balk first?

As best as I can determine there are two major view points at this site on which US creditor will pull the plug on the dollar. The view point of ANOTHER, which puts forth that oil will seek another form of payment based on the end of dollar/gold convertability and the other view that Japan will stop buying our debt and sell it in earnest ( Note oil is a creditor as imortant as the japanese ) . I see these as one and the same point of view all sides including Europe know that the dollar as the only major international currency days are numbered. Japan as a seller can not/will not put its thumb in the eye of its best customer. Oil can and will since it peddles a basic comodity that will have the same demand no matter what form of payment it asks for. The world will willingly leave it to oil to set international currency right and the oil hand is forced because it is presently being paid in inflated dollars with no conduit to invest those dollars due to the impending global recession/depression other than gold or another legitamate asset. It is as simple as wealth preservation and it is yet another data point to put along side the reports Donald provides. Put together it is obvious what will happen the good news is that there is still time to prepare but even this time is short it would seem.

Mr. Mick
(Sun Mar 08 1998 10:40 - ID#345321)
Tolerant - nice to see you woke up on the right side of the bed this morning......
and are in great form. Bart's page coming in at a roaring 66 bytes/sec, which means I won't lurk now. Check back in late tonight. Have a great day, all!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 10:43 - ID#26793)
Kitco is the World Headquarters for Rock Looking Under. Thanks for your input. That is why I post this stuff.

You know all those letters you get in the mail offering you a better life if you sign up for their credit card at 18%? Kissinger does the same job but his mailings are for bankers who want countries as customers. Countries are great customers. If they can't pay the IMF hits on every taxpayer in the world to get their contribution. Bankers get to maintain their lifestyle no matter what. DON'T BORROW. Teach them a lesson.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 10:46 - ID#342376)
Windfall Profits Tax? Come on folks, Gold can't get above 300 (Yet)
I agree with OLD GOLD's 07:57 post. I maintain that Mining Shares will do very well when the average invester needs a new place to put money. What about all those angst ridden Mutual Fund Managers that will need to put money in SOME industry for SOME returns? That will be Mining Shares and Resource Stocks IMHO.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 10:54 - ID#342376)
Ooops, one more thing...
We goldbugs suffer from a touch of paranoia I've noticed. Although the outcome of all this at some point may be very bleak, Rome didn't fall overnight and neither will the Global Economy. I can see that holding Physical has it's points and I plan on buying some, but still think it's premature to be looking at a years supply of crackers and canned tuna.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 10:56 - ID#280245)
Old Gold--re A. Smith's "Thoughts (?) on gold"....
Andy Smiths Animating Articles of Faith

Sic vos non vobis, fertis aratra boves;
Sic vos non vobis, mellificatis apes;
Sic vos non vobis, vellera fertis oves;
Sic vos non vobis, nidificates aves.

So you for others, oxen, bear the yoke;
So you for others, bees, store up your honey;
So you for others, sheep, put on your fleece;
So you for others, birds, build your nests.
Virgil, Dispatch in Praise of Caesar

(Sun Mar 08 1998 11:05 - ID#26793)
Can India be the next world disaster?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 11:06 - ID#31868)
Logical - if you think about it
Richard Nixon, by severing the dollar from gold and floating it, turned on the air spiggot which has now inflated the balloon known as the "bubble" that so terrifies everyone. Once the politician and the banker were given free reign to take paper, print numbers on it and call it money
the chess pieces were in a much easier and less easily seen position to be rearranged around the globe.

What we are about to witness is the calamity which shall arise from what Nixon did with the swipe of a pen 28 years ago. The rest is brain salad surgery as to the what, where and why of now, but rest assured, the salad was made in the kitchen 28 years ago. Nixon aborted himself and the world financial system, all for geo-political gain and greed. This then is what we are witnessing;


And I differ in thinking on the viewpoint that oil will set the value of gold, the more I think about it, the Middle East could end up a huge loser in the ensuing debacle.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 11:20 - ID#341189)
Now I've seen it all - Virgil on Kitco. Can the classics be coming back? Well I guess not since you felt compelled to give an English translation. ( :- ) )

(Sun Mar 08 1998 11:23 - ID#26793)
George Soros and Apex Silver Mines

(Sun Mar 08 1998 11:24 - ID#320219)
T1 that is my point
That is my point that the dollar is only baked by a creditors willingnes to accept it not by an actual asset. We as a country deserve what we get when we vote for free lunches. The world will vote to make us pay. In terms of wealth the ME are doing just fine- it is the rest of the world that is in shambles.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 11:38 - ID#31868)
Logical - okay, now that I have you on the hook,
the United States is the whore, Japan and the Middle East are two of the Johns. Answer this; who is the pimp that runs the whorehouse?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 11:47 - ID#368244)
Why Gold Won't Go Much Lower
As silver surpassed the $7 mark, and many on this forum saw the sky as the limit, I made the comment that at some point there would be a river of silver coming back into the market. When silver went to $50, there were hundreds of millions of ounces purchased and as the price fell back towards $3, these thousands of investors could not bear the thought of taking such a loss, so they simply held and held.

When the price then went to $7, many said enough is enough, and immediately liquidated their holdings. The fact is, most people who accumulate substantial amounts of physical ( anything ) are usually among the more affluent of our society, so they are in a position to hold. I believe that silver will go back up, but as before at $ 8-10, another river will flow. The silver market needs this to flush the overburden out, thereby allowing demand to once again take precedence.

Now, let's look at gold. As its price, percentage wise, was far less than silver's, most people that wanted to sell, have sold. I believe that a concerted effort was made to force these sales. I am not exactly clear on this point, but I believe that gold had to be gathered back into a central point. Now that the price is below $300, people are starting to buy. Notice that I said "people". Every government, every mine, is selling. This makes one wonder why ? I believe it started off with one objective in mind, relocate and identify as much of the precious yellow as possible. This was accomplished, and is being accomplished, by bringing other countries of the world to the brink of financial disaster ( notice Korea and the voluntary collection of gold ) . No one in his right mind would give up the one asset that had held its value in times of crisis. No one except those who are either forced, doing it for God and Country, or those who are doing it because of starvation. This will work on the masses, but in all societies, there is a group that is not prone to these pressures. When commodities or any physical asset goes below its real value, they are there to purchase it. I believe we are at, or close to, those levels in gold.

Now, let's talk about the dollar and its part in this grand scenario. People for many years and from many countries, have hoarded the dollar because it has been one of the safest soft currencies. So much so, that untold billions of dollars, in private and government hands, could and would defy imagination. Billions of these dollars have bought hard assets. Billions more are in the stock market, but trillions remain around the world in the form of simple green backs.

Enter the new 50 and 100 dollar bills, brought into existence to protect the American people from horrible counterfeiters and drug dealers. How many of you would like to bet that an effort to collect all these green backs is underway ? Since they can't be redeemed, what is a good government to do ? One day soon the announcement will come that all old currency must be exchanged within a certain time frame. This will do 2 things, it will immediately uncover millions and millions of dollars, the only catch is you must explain where they came from. If you can't, guess what, confiscation. Of course there will be millions more that no one will even attempt to redeem, because the result would be prison time.

Now, enter the stock market. All those overseas dollars can't be confiscated in the same way. But look at the U. S. stock market, a source of untold wealth. Returns of almost 30-50 % are practically guaranteed. Right ?? Wrong !! Governments borrowing from the IMF. Governments putting all those dollars into the stock market--guess what's going to happen ?

Re-enter gold. What's the one asset that can conceal those dollars? You guessed it, but since it has no value, who's going to buy it !!



(Sun Mar 08 1998 11:49 - ID#26793)
Books on gold and gold related issues

Mike Sheller
(Sun Mar 08 1998 11:49 - ID#347447)
tolerant 1
re your 10:04 - shouldn't that be "suckle at the teat"? Sir, you add new meaning to the phrase "Gucci loafers."

As for Nixon, by the time the buck was floated the "gold standard" had become an empty charade. A gold standard which takes into account ONLY governments robs the people. Say whatever one wishes about RMN, but he DID return to Americans the right to own gold. Therein lies the true power, if only Americans understood the power of that right, and the kind of choice it offers them. But alas, we are ignorant in our time, and thus make ourselves victims. The people are, in the end, responsible for what befalls them, in any age, in any time. By the time the people ( ie: the investing public ) realize the value of gold relative to a world in crisis, it will be time to sell the noble stuff, as much as now is the time to buy.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 11:57 - ID#320219)
T1 you are wrong the people are the Johns

(Sun Mar 08 1998 12:06 - ID#35767)

(Sun Mar 08 1998 12:10 - ID#31868)
Mike Sheller
1- Yes

2- Thank you

3- The more I thought about it, hmmmmmmmm. True enough. But the
baby was thrown out with the bath water when RMN used the pen.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 12:17 - ID#31868)
Logical - Oh, yeah, oh yeah, PAL
Ultimately, hmmmmmmmmmm, in the final, Logical analysis, you're right. Spit tooey, I hate the taste of crow, why I oughta...

(Sun Mar 08 1998 12:23 - ID#256454)
In Physical universe terms entropy discusses the theory that
in nature things stay in disorder and we as humans try to bring
order. In silver we are seeing entropy at work. One human
Warren Buffet sees the disorder and invest in 20% of the worlds
silver but the 80% left is in disorder as we all buy and sell
to seek mere crumbs of profit. We all must buy and hold to see
the 1980's move to 50.00 per ounce and higher. Silver is a
catylyst for our present level of technology. Silver also
may be the catalyst for upcoming bull market in all PM. My advice
buy and hold follow the leader!

John Disney__A
(Sun Mar 08 1998 12:33 - ID#24135)
questions .. questions
For Mozel
You ask ...
Why will not SA mines be the target of confiscatory taxation like Canadian and Australian are likely to be ?

Answer .. Because Industry here is much more labour intensive.
The Labour in question is part of the ANC constituency. They must
be kept in jobs. Confiscatory taxation and the mining companies
would close high cost shafts, fire workers, blame government, and
move part of their operations to other African countries.
Gold at say 5000 $ would be a different story .. But the US
would be the first to confiscate. They always have been. And they
alone have a precedent for taxing windfall inventory profits.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 12:42 - ID#320219)

Keep up the good work. It is all unfolding before our eyes however becareful what you hope for it may not be pretty. The more time this drags out the more time to prepare. I would rather be right latter than to get instant gratification now. America loves the lone visonaries ( I exempt myself ) who see things the masses don't, just look at the movies, but when it happens in real life they ( the visionaries ) will be the scape goats. The glory only goes to visionaries that save everyone from the destruction.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Mar 08 1998 12:54 - ID#347447)
John Disney
Hey John, now that I have you in my sights ( how the hell are you? ) have a question for you. Is President Steyn Gold still around? Came across an old 'scope in my collection.What's the diagnosis? This one has a Jupiter conjunction with its Venus in early/mid April. That looks very nice to me. Not quite the fireworks of Jupiter/Mars on DROOY a while back, but very pleasant. Might bode well for the group, or just an isolated example like DROOY. Thought I'd throw that one out for a look see. Any observations you might have appreciated.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 13:01 - ID#255284)
Mike Sheller
How does a gastrologer become a gold bug?

John Disney__A
(Sun Mar 08 1998 13:12 - ID#24135)
for Mozel
The SARB is a company, listed on the JSE. So far thats
all I know. However it doesnt appear to trade or have any
earnings. I think the question is who holds the shares.

For Mike ..
Im okay Mike .. But I think President Steyn was absorbed
long ago into Fregold ( ?? )

For Salty
Did some work this morning at Checkers supermarket on
alternative "standards" .. chicken is holding up well at
11.59R/KG ( US$ 1.95/KG ) - however another brand is avalable
at 10.98R/KG. It is possible that this brand is less than
99.99 % pure chicken.
The White sliced bread standard is another possiblity with
800 Gm at 2.75Rand ( $US0.56 ) . US bread may not qualify for
a bread standard because it is too fluffy and is almost
lighter than air. I seem to remember it being fastened to
the shelves to keep it from going airbourne.
To all
Someone asked me the price of biltong .. Beef is 65 R/KG.
Kudu is 85 .. Ostridge is 95 ..

(Sun Mar 08 1998 13:21 - ID#341189)
China to follow S Korea example - form business groups

(Sun Mar 08 1998 13:38 - ID#238295)
Gold, CB Selling, and The Dollar
Upon reflection I have concluded that the ultimate cause of gold's problems is not CB selling and the threat of same, but the incredible bull market in the dollar and dollar-linked assets.

CBs are selling and leasing because they have done far better on their dollar linked reserves than on their gold holdings to put it mildly.

When the dollar bull reverses, CB selling and lending will plunge.

Bottom line -- CB selling and the dollar bull really are two sides of the same coin. But when US financial assets finally enter a sustained slump, the situation will change radically. A weak dollar will hike gold prices triggering less CB selling and lending. And less CB selling and lending will hike gold further, putting additional pressure on the greenback.

It has been a destructive circle for POG on the way down, but will be a virtuous circle on the way up.

If the dollar bull continues for another year or two, Andy Smith will be proved correct. But if the dollar bull is near an end as TZADEAK and I maintain, the sky will be the limit over the next few years.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 13:45 - ID#347457)
@fundaMETAList on the DoD Y2K Resignation
fundaMETAList, I cant give you any internet references for the resignation. I am getting ITAA Outlook every week through e-mail. #5 from February 6 talks about resignations ( for whatever reason that issue is not on archive page of ITAA ( ) .

I know DoD Y2K key players, work with them on multiple IT programs. Cynthia Rand was effectively in charge of Y2K program, I was in her office a few times to brainstorm on DOD approach. However, because our company is not focused on DOD, I did not talk to her for a while, though I met her shortly before her resignation. I assume that despite her team building skills, she could not overcome opposing interests within DOD community which compete with Y2K work. That in addition for needing a scapegoats for failing progress would do you in DOD.

Arthur Money, CIO of the Air Force, has been designated as Valletta's replacement.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 13:47 - ID#330175)
'A Sea of White'.........................beautiful................with headphones---*go team gold*
The ocean from here to Scaterie Island ( 8.5 miles--nearest point; 12 miles--most distant point ) is a 'Sea of White' filled with large ice flows coated by a fresh layer of fallen snow and now the sun is breakin out ( ) ----'Walkin down a country road'...'Take to the highway,why don't you lend me your name'....'but I always thought I'd see you again'.....

(Sun Mar 08 1998 13:48 - ID#286230)
Welcome to our side of the argument George.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 13:58 - ID#25588)
Silver, Gold & SnP
All - Thanks for the encouraging comments made over the last few days. I hope my views of the markets have helped you profit or least prevented some losses. But that's old news. What's next? The collapse of silver on Friday stopped right at the support line. If May sliver opens below 6.00 Monday morning odds are the correction objective of 5.50 -5.40 will be met next week. If April Gold couldn't go up when silver was rallying it's not going to go up while it's dropping. Look for April Gold to test the lows and bottom at 277.5 this week. These are great buy points with minimum entry risk. But, if the XAU and gold stocks in general tank these targets could be exceeded to the down side. The S&P could be hit for a brief 2-3 day correction down to 1025. After that its back up into triple option expiration.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 14:04 - ID#431263)
Just a personalnote but I believe a fitting analogy for what's about to occur with gold. I live in the Upper Midwest US and as everyone knows El Nino has "robbed" us of our normal snowfall of about 50-60 inches this winter. Consequently our local Walmart had a clearance sale last weekend of all its snow scrapers, snow shovels, snow throwers etc. Prices were up to 75% off so I took advantage for the next 10-20 years of blizzards, ice storms etc. Today, we got clobbered by up to a foot of snow, ice, sleet and drifts as big as my car! Guess what? NOBODY has any any ice scrapers, snow shovels, snow throwers etc.! S___T! Shoulda' bought 'em LAST WEEK when they were giuving 'em away! TOO LATE NOW! THE SALE IS OVER! AND THE CUPBOARD IS BARE! So it will go with gold! The sale's almost over and the blizzard is brewin' to bust in when everyone is confident financial winter will never come! Let him that hat ears, HEAR!

Mike Sheller
(Sun Mar 08 1998 14:09 - ID#347447)
Actually I was a goldbug before I was a, I mean astrologer. I was a goldbug on philosophic grounds. I became VERY bullish on gold in 1972, couldn't buy it, so I bought silver bullion instead in 1975 or 76 at $5 and change.

It was a fun ride, but by the time silver reached $50 I was an astrologer! I had left the markets by then to study metaphysics and world scriptures. I wanted to find the answers to the great questions of life. I actually did not combine astrology with market activities until 1991. Are you still awake?

Mike Sheller
(Sun Mar 08 1998 14:11 - ID#347447)
Golden Cheesehead
Great story. A real Ice-breaker. I have ears, I have ears.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 14:18 - ID#255284)
Vertus Aurum

It deserves repeating:
"It has been a destructive circle for POG on the way down, but will be a virtuous circle on the way up."

Same same with fans in Auckland, hottest Feb since records began by several degs C. Fans could not be bought for gold. At last fans arrive coincidentally with end of the golden weather and power cuts. This is "just in time inventory-mindset" and its vulnerability to foreseeable but unlikely extraneous events is shocking. A thin vaneer of technology across this barbarous humanity.

My amigo on ice bergs. Sounds like a breathtaking outlook.

Spoke last night to cousins in To, said your mildest winter in memory. What is going on with this sweet gold world's weather?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 14:19 - ID#368244)
@ APh
On the other hand gold did not tank with silver.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 14:20 - ID#431263)
Scorn and mockery at contrary opinion is the best sign I know of a bottom!
One more thing! Last week everybody at Walmart ( family members included ) were laughing me to scorn for loadin' up the cart with winter items! Funny, nobody laughing at me now! Cuz, now I'm a genius! Go figure!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 14:22 - ID#255284)


up&offtowork someone's gotta support a goldenjones
Come on, you know I'm awaiting a speach, Mike.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 14:22 - ID#25588)
Isure - It's not Monday morning yet either.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Mar 08 1998 14:22 - ID#347447)
NY weather this "winter" has been very mild as well. More than just a thin "vaneer" of mildness, I might add. It's the real, full strength, 100% unadulterated MILD thing!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 14:55 - ID#335190)
FYI @ Machine tool demand falling (Manufacturing Deflation- Financials Inflation??)
March 8, 1998
Release at 6:30 P.M. EST Sunday, March 8 )

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - U.S. machine tool demand fell in January from the previous month, but was still up from a year ago, two industry groups said in a joint report issued on Sunday.

The American Machine Tool Distributors' Association and the Association for Manufacturing Technology said January machine tool demand fell 16.6 percent to an estimated $656.42 million from $787.43 million in December.

But the January figure was up 12.4 percent from $583.81 million a year earlier, in January 1997.

"The U.S. continues to be the strongest market in the world for machine tool orders, consuming 20 percent of world output in 1997," AMTDA President Ralph Nappi said in a statement. He said January's increase from the year-ago month starts 1998 "on a positive note."

Machine tools are used to shape metal in making everything from bicycles to aircraft. Demand for these tools can provide a leading indicator of the pace of manufacturing.

By region, the report said the Midwest accounted for about 41 percent of national demand in January, followed by 23 percent in the Central region and about 15 percent in the Northeast. The West accounted for 13 percent and the South 8 percent, the report said.

Export orders placed with U.S. machine tool makers totaled 194 units in January, the report said. That was down from 339 units reported for December and also off from 275 units in January 1997.

Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 14:57 - ID#330175)
Aurator.....................................*go ABX-GOLD*
awesome mail

(Sun Mar 08 1998 15:04 - ID#431263)
Could Michael J. Kosares, author of THE ABC'S OF GOLD INVESTING" and "IN THE FOOSTEPS OF GIANTS", now advertising on this site, be ANOTHER? Perhaps attempting to capitalize on his posts here at Kitco as ANOTHER by analyzing his own mind? The ANONYMOUS of cyberspace! Comments anyone?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 15:07 - ID#153102)
There is no ready substitute for oil. Oil is the blood of a modern air-land mobile military. But, more importantly, oil used by trains, planes, barges, ships, and trucks is the blood of all modern distribution of product. It is the low cost of distribution made possible by oil which makes possible the division of labor which is the basis for economic efficiency and modern wealth.

In 1850 there was oil in the ground in Saudi Arabia, but the Arabs were a poor people. Oil in the ground is like a crop in the field. It must be sold to have value. It can be sold at a high price if there is shortage; a lower price must be accepted if there is surplus. OPEC was formed to create a DeBeers of oil, to ration supply, to increase price. OPEC initiated a large scale transfer of wealth to oil producers. The numbers were staggering. The West adapted by making the Arabs into creditors and customers.

As a customer Saudi Arabia has debts to pay. But the decline in the price of oil in greenbacks means it is paying debt with more asset ( oil ) expensive greenbacks than the greenbacks it borrowed.
As a creditor Saudi Arabia has gold. But the decline in the price of gold in greenbacks means its asset ( gold ) is being devalued. The asset squeeze on the Saudi is funding the waste, fraud, and plunder of greenback government.

To put confidence in paper money is in simplest terms to trust a man made thing. We in the West have become accustomed to trusting the man made thing. Otherwise, we would not board airplanes. To trust a machine is one thing. To trust a man made thing composed of men is another. History shows beyond dispute that banks and governments are variable and not lasting. And neither is their paper money. On this point a wise producer would not yield and the Saudi will not.

OPEC initiated more than a wealth transfer. It initiated exploration for oil and for oil substitutes. Both of these inititatives have the potential of stranding the Saudi with debt to a Western Bank and with oil in the ground, oil having the same lack of value it had in 1850.

A bid to buy gold with oil for fewer ounces of gold per barrel than the greenback equivalent solves all of the Saudi's problems and lowers the cost of oil to the world. The economic growth and wealth that would result from the additional divisions of labor for efficiency made possible by lower priced oil would be astounding. It would stimulate, not deflate, just as lower cost oil did all through the first half of the twentieth century. Further, it will lift an intolerable burden of greenback debt from the backs of many nations and give gold in the ground rich countries purchasing power and thereby give means to the demand for the manufactured goods of the West and Asia.

The only way to stop an oil bid for gold is to occupy the oilfields. This may seem like an alternative to Americans made stupid by life under martial law. But, if such an overt act of colonialism were done, it would destroy the UN. It would shatter world confidence in the man made thing. It would unite the moslem world to liberate Mecca and either withdrawal or a general war would surely, inevitably, result. Could the federal government in Washington be so mad with power as to do it ? Let us hope not.

CB monopoly control over gold production exercised by flooding the market with paper promises for future gold and gold inventory creates an intolerable asset squeeze on the Saudi. They must act. The stock market may crash. Derivatives and bank failures may occur. But the Saudi must act. If they knew what we know about Y2K, they would already have done so. When they act, others will follow and, practically speaking, all paper will be gone with the wind.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 15:10 - ID#431263)
By the way, I have spoken to Michael and he assures me he doesn't know who ANOTHER is! Personally, I believe him, but how would we ever know since ANOTHER refuses ( for obvious reasons ) to reveal his true identity!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 15:16 - ID#344308)

who rode the silvered-one into the abyss? is the ride over?
volatility cannot be has yet to feel the
sting, of massive is the only pm that has
not participated in the pm's volatility.....options love
volatility. who wishes they had bought long-term silver calls
4 months ago? they will be the same ones who will wish they
had bought gold calls when the resplendent-one was down-trodden,
and said to be of-no-relative-value......reminds me of the recent
comments ( last year ) of silver......who believes now? can it happen
with gold? it HAS TO HAPPEN......

'for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction' isaac newton

apply pressure ON is overdue.....and WAY OVERSOLD!
when the pressure-cooker blows.....egg is gonna be on most folks faces...
and gollum's to the races.'ve you been? special ss's for your wife....

(Sun Mar 08 1998 15:30 - ID#335190)
Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.
March 8, 1998
FOCUS-No deal yet on OPEC emergency meeting-Saudi

DUBAI, March 8 ( Reuters ) - Saudi Arabia on Sunday cast doubts on a possible OPEC emergency meeting to discuss sagging oil prices, stressing it was the responsibility of all producers to rush to the rescue of world prices.

"Perhaps what delays the materialisation of a clear solution is that some countries, especially those which exceed their quotas, indicate that they are not prepared to reduce their production. This means that coming up with a joint solution within OPEC to restore stability to the market would be difficult indeed," the Saudi oil minister said.

Naimi said "those who demand the kingdom to assume alone, or together with other GCC countries, the burden of market stability, do not recognise that the kingdom pursues a consistent line which is based on the fact that market stability is a joint responsibility."

But OPEC's ability to find a meaningful agenda to tackle the price slump has been thwarted by Venezuela which has said publicly that it will not cut output by even one barrel.
Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.
March 8, 1998
Iran, Switzerland sign investment accord

TEHRAN, March 8 ( Reuters ) - Iranian and Swiss trade officials signed an investment agreement in Tehran on Sunday, Iranian television reported.
It gave no details of the pact.
Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.
March 8, 1998
Germany, UAE sign memorandum on shipping, trade

ABU DHABI, March 8 ( Reuters ) - Germany and the United Arab Emirates have signed a memorandum of understanding on shipping and trade, the German ambassador to the UAE said on Sunday.

Ambassador Martin Schneller told Reuters the agreement had been signed on Saturday during a visit to the UAE's capital by German Transport Minister Matthias Wissmann.

He said the memorandum emphasised "the shared interest in backing bilateral foreign trade, the exchange of services and increasing international cooperation in the field of shipping."

(Sun Mar 08 1998 15:31 - ID#374211)
@Heard on the street......Gold....US$...SE Asia....Russia/Kosavo....
Some very well placed newsletter "gurus" like A. Smith are still
calling for a few more years in the US$ bull....I say bull....The fact is that
a major pillar supporting the US$ ,SOLE military superpower is being overtly challenged as we read....First Iraq, backed of course by Russia
et al, where the US clearly is the looser, and this week a new potentially
explosive conflict involving Kosavo. A little history, Kosavo is where
the Serbian "dream" of greatness began, this is where Malosovich
made his famous "Greater Serbian"speech, right before the outbreak
of the Yugoslav war 90% of Kososva is Albanian....I am of the view that Russia once again is winking and noding with approval at this lates outbreak in the region since it has the potential of "sucking" in two NATO allies Greece and Turkey, since each back opposite factions in the area. Russia has long had it in for Turkey, and would benefit economically if
Turkey is destablized, in addition to "getting back" at the US for
the humiliation it suffered by NATO's inclusion of Eastern Europe....
Why even Old General Suharto is thuming his nose at the US ( IMF )
he has a campaign underway in Indonesia called "I LOVE RUPIAH"
good success so far, where he is asking people to turn in their US$
for Rupiah's as a show of love for their country, He will be re-elected
and will do "his thing" another sign of US inpotence....

BTW Germany's CB Pres Tietmayer has been accused of insider trading
which he has denied, buying and selling paper for his own profit, talk
about corruption...

Gold has gone UP vs almost all currencies so what we are all dealing
with really is the POGUS$. So as the US$ goes so will Gold in US$....

back a little later with a most interesting discussion I had with a great old
timer Mr. "B" RE SE Asia crisis....

(Sun Mar 08 1998 15:32 - ID#26669)
Mike Sheller, et all re 7:05 post
Such interesting posts this AM, while I was snoozing. So many people thinking of so many ways to hoard wealth.

So I will leave you with my minority opinion. Gold is meant to be worn by the women in the family, in an ostentatious display of its solid presence. ( It is also, traditionally, a dare, "whoever touches this gold or this woman will be visited with the wrath of a thousand dervishes, his head handed back to him on a platter, along with his right hand an his manhood", but being a non-violent soul, I'll pass on fuller discussion of this area of history. )

Gold is meant to be cast into massive objects of wonder such as horses, forest boars, lions, phalluses, chariots and griffons. The larger the object size, the more the status of the person who displays it. Those of a more circumspect and religious bent would seek to display crosses, flowers and plaques with key words and phrases if the idea of statuettes brings iconography to mind too distastfully. ( Sadly the only mas produced items of such type I know of now are the Korean pigs, turtles, etc. )

Twisted and folded into torques of unbelievable complexity, gold is worn around the neck ( again in an ancient dare, "take this head if you dare, for that is the only way you'll obtain the torque" ) . Or it is inlaid into the hilts of knives and swords, and hammered into sheets used to gild helmets, shields and greaves. And this yellow metal is worn not in the thin wash so commonly seen on our coffee cups and pens but thick, massive layers which say "Yes, I'm a man who counts".

Even cast as beetles, reminiscent of the gold bug from Poe's famous story, gold will shine as an object of wonder and fame. But we do ourselves no benefit by continuing to hide it in vaults and measuring it in meagre ounces.

This is why the POG is so low. We've allowed the Rumplestiltskins and Silas Marners of the world to hide it away where it can't be seen.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 15:33 - ID#153102)
Thanks for the information on the SARB. It appears to be a true bank like BIS. It would be good to know who are the major shareowners to know what political support it would have to maintain independence in the environment after an oil bid for gold.

Does the mining industry market product through it by agreement or by coercion of law ?

IMHO no debt, none, in the mining company is the sine qua non for a stock certificate's possibly having value in the future. Anybody holding a bond on a gold mine is going to own it if government does not expropriate the mine.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 15:36 - ID#261269)
Breaking News ... on CNN....Clinton's business partner
Jim McDougle "dies" ... won't the rag press have fun with this one!!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 15:37 - ID#194311)
Euro matador to slay dollar bull....long live the GOLD euro
Euro Seen Having Impact on US
ACAPULCO, Mexico ( Reuters ) - Dresdner Bank AG chief
economist and general manager Klaus Friedrich says he expects
the introduction of a single European currency will have a major
impact on U.S. economic policy. ``The Euro will mean the end to
the policy of benign neglect with regard to the dollar,''
Friedrich told a Mexican bankers convention Saturday. ``That
policy has brought considerable benefits to the United States
and enabled the United States ... to command decades of enormous
external current account deficits by printing more of its own
money.'' Friedrich said that with a viable alternative as a
trading and reserve currency, ``the U.S. will have to think
about eventually balancing its current account or the market
might do it through a devaluation of the dollar.''

(Sun Mar 08 1998 15:40 - ID#194311)
Asia...we ain't seen nothing yet...roll over you bad loan.
Asian banks brace for worse times as crisis hits bottomlines
SINGAPORE, March 8 ( AFP ) - Asian banks and finance institutions
which have so far survived the regional turmoil are bracing
themselves for worse to come as bad loans start ravaging balance
sheets, bankers and economists say.
With Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea in recession, corporate
borrowers collapsing, consumer confidence at rock bottom and the
real estate market choked by a glut, banks are expecting more
defaults, prompting exceptional provisions for bad loans which are
eating into profit margins.
Stockbroking and property activities which had helped buoy
regional banks' profit levels during the Asian boom could also hurt
the bottom line.
"You ain't seen nothing yet," said Song Seng Wun, regional
economist with GK Goh securities in Singapore after the island's
regionally-exposed banks reported sharp drops in profits, with one
small bank suffering a rare loss.
"If you call this poor, you should call again in six months'
time," he warned.
Global credit assessor Moody's Investors Service downgraded the
outlook of Singapore's leading banks from "stable" to "negative"
last week to reflect "the possible deterioration in regional
"I anticipate that economic growth will decelerate more in the
second half of the year and that, ultimately, will mean loans which
have been on the margins are going to fall into the non-performing
category," Song said.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 15:47 - ID#368244)

Would you suggest carrying around a beef round. The lady might find it a bit heavy, and the exchange rate in India is awful.

Just kidding

(Sun Mar 08 1998 15:48 - ID#238295)
TZADEAK: I find your posts among the valuable on this forum. Geopolitical analysis is the key to understanding the gold market and your understanding of this arcane subject is great indeed.

Gold is an ugly duckling until the dollar bull ends. Then it turns into a magnificent swan. And it does look like the dollar bull will be history soon.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 15:53 - ID#153102)
Interesting posts. Lots of motion beneath the surface of the pond upon which sit the idle warships.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Mar 08 1998 16:00 - ID#347447)
Ever think of going into advertising, marketing, and promotion? Out of sight, out of mind. You are absolutely right. I will scrape the white enamel off my lawn elephant immediately, proudly displaying his solid gold substance. Now where did I put those gold chains?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 16:00 - ID#285392)
APH Thanks for your enlightened comments
I really appreciate your regular commentary. You give us some guidelines to follow where there is no other informed and practical information available. Most times other commentaries are rumination and speculation about how one feels about a subject as opposed to the concrete information that you offer.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Mar 08 1998 16:05 - ID#347447)
How do you feel about that golden grain - Wheat? Does this look like a bottom to you or do you see further drift down before the next bull? Anxious on the Island.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 16:15 - ID#252127)

Eventually one of the rescue packages -especially this one in Asia- will flop for the IMF. The US puppets will cut their strings.

The Mexico save, at taxpayer's 'risk' is purported to have worked and now we have three serious and many other just as serious problems in Asia.

I still remember the "Thanks Bob" Barrons issue.
That sheet suffered with Alan Abelson's removal as editor.

RR, AG, and Soros, are real worried. We have a whole battery of lesser financial luminaries making constant visits and overtures to the region, the band plays on and no one is dancing to the tune.

The US market is way up^ and the risks simply outweigh the gains. The T's and feds major priority will become slowing its decline.

We have the investment pro Warren Buffet into silver and he hardly ever plays the dangerous game. I assume that India's currency or political problems may be attacked to bring out some extra silver, but that would really create one big rescue problem.

Silver at $11.00, gold at $400 plus by 12/31/98

If the European CB's announce that they will have a fire sale on that gold not transfered to their New European CB, then all hell will break loose -to the upside- in the gold markets.

My belief is that covet sales will be stratigically announced to keep the gold markets in line and guessing the next move.

It can go on just so long.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 16:18 - ID#31868)
I am now in hell, installed IE4.0 AGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Oh god

(Sun Mar 08 1998 16:19 - ID#374211)
@ Old Gold...
Thanks indeed for you show of appreciation, I am very pleased
to see an Old Pro like yourself with his eye on the ball, instead of
on the player who is down or up. I too consider your post important
and read all of them....let us keep up the good work to inform and
enlighten each other here at kitco, and a make whole bunch of
"money' and or maintain our purchasing power, wouldn't be bad either....

(Sun Mar 08 1998 16:24 - ID#26793)
BIS reports a "tightening of lending conditions" (deflation!!!

Mike Sheller
(Sun Mar 08 1998 16:25 - ID#347447)
repeat of
Ok, Ok. This is a tedious stretch here. Gold and Oil, Oil and Gold. Saudis and paper, paper and metal. Confiscate and hoard, bullion or shares...etc, etc. Even diehard goldbugs need a change of pace here. Enter the Kitco Kwiz of last year ( there are enuf new faces to make it worthwhile ) .The Kwiz Kwestion is:


If you can answer this kwestion ( not so fast kitcoites, not so fast ) you will win today's repeat kitco kwiz. If you can give the DATE ( Day, Month, Year ) you will be exhalted with a bronze oak leaf cluster. I will report back with the answer later. Avanti!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 16:35 - ID#224149)
Fidel says "hi"
Ted Cuba has more FBI agents than your Islands population ---away to count ducks at Lake Simcoe

(Sun Mar 08 1998 16:36 - ID#26793)
Indonesia Power Co. making payments in rupiah; contracts specify US$ (sounds like default to me

(Sun Mar 08 1998 16:41 - ID#342282)
N.A. Gold Mines and merchandising
The following thoghts are derived from a lot of posters and lately from Mozel, High Rise. M. Sheller, J. Disney, SDRer et al and Another. Where and how production from these mines is sold is not the point. The age 46 to 56 of the population is a hellacious market. There is a lower age market that is substantial. It is currently legal for anybody here to strike coins if they are not copies of existing coins. There are many charms, bars etc easy to produce. If there is to be any consortium of mining cos. there should be some consideration localizating some of there production at a mint capable of striking coins and producing other items that could be RETAILED. Several private mints exist. Probably the most successful is the Franklin. Some mining cos. may want to set up their own. They have the metallurgy and could obtain any missing skills. A study of Franklins methods of production and merchandising should boost the profits and make sales less dependent on wholesale markets. If this area would be looked at sufficiently, I believe the results would be obvious. I have no idea when confiscation or orders of treasury demands might happen, but he who jumps first will probably profit. The Dow is presently supported by this age 35 to 55 market, so it would not be a bad strategy to go after it aggressively. What do you think, I have no monopoly on brains.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 16:42 - ID#26793)
@Mike Sheller
OK Mike; I remember this trick question and trick answer. Better question: when you do a horosope on the US dollar do you use the date of the coinage act of 1792, a non gold dollar date like 1971 etc. Does it make a difference?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 16:43 - ID#224149)
mike sheller
may 31 1781 --19,390.00 revolutionary war ( not copyrighted )

(Sun Mar 08 1998 16:49 - ID#342282)
Mike re Kwiz
Best I know it was Jan 8, 1980 @ $852.etc

The Hatt
(Sun Mar 08 1998 16:53 - ID#294232)
Spin Doctors Working on Compaq!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I could not believe what I have just read! Compaq on a short term trade basis should be bought at the opening bell in the morning no matter what
price it opens. If you are holding the stock at much higher levels it would be foolish to sell because it will come back! When will these paper fools learn that this is the oldest form of distribution! Talk the weak hands into buying while the strong hands relieve themselves of an overhang of Compaq Paper. Guess they will never learn!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 16:59 - ID#26793)
Coinage Act of 1792

(Sun Mar 08 1998 17:01 - ID#252127)
Shucks; Bet that Suharto wishes that Bre-X was.....the real thing

(Sun Mar 08 1998 17:05 - ID#26793)
The courts and the Federal Reserve System

(Sun Mar 08 1998 17:06 - ID#233199)
@Mike Sheller & DROOY

Mike - Drooy is my main play right now, are yup up to date on it, and could you comment on how YOU see its prospects please?


(Sun Mar 08 1998 17:15 - ID#273227)
TYoung - Green Valley
TYoung - Green Valley doesn't have any desert courses. But Rio Rico

and Tubac are alot of fun. Rio Rico was ranked top 20 in the state.

I perfer Tubac - were "Tin Cup" was filmed. If you need a playing

partner on 3/15 - I could meet you in the Tucson area. drop me a note

(Sun Mar 08 1998 17:22 - ID#258129)
I think, I am going to buy $/NLG puts in coming week with expiration in June or July. $ is looks too high now and not likely to go up much more. On the other hand, May EU meeting is planned to be successful, EURO will be officially implemented.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 17:25 - ID#26669)
Isure, Mike et al
Elephants and beef rounds forgot about sailboat keels, belt buckles and doorknobs.

Seriously guys, I think gold got a bum rap about the time Moses ground up the gold calf and fed it to the Israelis. And its going to take poetic nonsense, p.r. and advertising. I'm not looking for a job, but with arm twisting could be forced to become a 'highly paid fashion consultant'. I don't know a thing about haute fashion.

Maybe one of the refiners will come up with a line of wearable bullion items ( 22k for durability ) then advertise it as THE sexy fashion statement. Remember Calvin Klein's ad, "Nothing comes between me and my CK's"? You'd have difficulty advertising fully on t.v., except m.t.v. but imagine a picture to go with this: "When you're not around I have only my gold to keep me warm"...

Bart are you reading this? There's gold in them thar frills! :^ )

(Sun Mar 08 1998 17:25 - ID#255190)
Hello, fellow gold warriors!
We don't make this market, ya know. We are just riding it. The big paper monster doesn't care if we buy or sell; doesn't feel the ounces which flow into the hands of the crowd. The market makers make the markets amoung themselves regardless of demand for physical bullion. They do not care where the physical market is going. The only thing they do is trade against each other. Million ounce contracts. Paper. That market is the tulip market. It just doesn't look like a tulip market because the price isn't ridiculously high. Its the same though.

Let's not be to terribly impressed by a day's, week's or month's activity in the gold 'market' price. Why? Because it is a paper market only. We are buying the real thing. And when the time comes it will be proven as the best and wisest choice. Until then we are buying ice scrapers in July! ( Loved that story GoldenCheeseHead! )

(Sun Mar 08 1998 17:30 - ID#317193)
Playing Rio Rico on 3/12 @ 8:00 and 1:00. Don't remember course for 3/15, might be Tubac, might be San Ignacio. Playing Raven at Sabino Springs 3/11 . Will e-mail when I get to my office to check the schedule-snow in the cornhusker state is resticting travel. Thank you for your post. Tom Bart-sorry, off subject.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 17:35 - ID#224149)
Sorry Eb It ! It took painful pleasure to post this.
Eb --- is on a roll-----HALF CENTS--each to be of the value of half a cent, and to contain five penny-weights and a half a penny-weight of copper.

Bully Beef
(Sun Mar 08 1998 17:40 - ID#259282)
Feed the beast
Here in Ca Na Da we have Registered Ret. Savings Plans and every year at the end of Feb. you borrow money to put into them so you can get money back on your income tax so you can pay off the loan so you can borrow more money to buy RRSP's for the next year and so on..... I know you have them in the U.S. They are IRA's or something's ( not internal revenue agents. This feeds the market big time as we all know. Is it possible that a change in the law restricting this type of investment could bring about a crash? What happens when we stop feeding the beast.
Is this the one event that has changed the markets so dramatically and possibly for ever? A catastrophic drop in the market will wipe out the savings of the biggest voting group in the US. This cannot happen! Think about the consequences. Bill Clinton would not get re-elected!
So if you ever question how and why there is no truly "Free Market" just ask your selves....Do you really want one? Think about how good things really are for those of you in this group and stop wishing for a catastrophe that will destroy all of your neighbours!!!
Incidenty.. How do you make a hormone? Don't pay er!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 17:51 - ID#368244)
Go to AOL market chat and monitor the coversations. There is more than a little fear about the markets. I believe this cookie is about ready to crumble. Have made some good gains in MF' S, hope I dont go down with the ship. To lose both ways would not make me happy. SUGGESTIONS?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 17:57 - ID#252150)
Possibly Very Bad News For AU
On mar.1 the opposition Social Democrats won a resounding victory in the State of Saxony in Germany. Subsequently, telegenic Gerhard Schroder Was named opposition leader.
The upshot: For the 1st time in 17yrs, Kohl & his party could be defeated in Sept. election
Schroder opposes the proposed single currency, the Euro, & could make it the #1 issue in his campaign.

If Schroder does defeat Kohl, there will be no Euro, & therefore no real competitive currency against the $U.S.
That would have to be construed as very bad news for AU.

Hi Ted

(Sun Mar 08 1998 18:03 - ID#431263)
Herr Isure

Have but one comment. If in doubt throw 'em out! SELL! SELL! SELL! BEFORE the markets go to HELL! BUY! BUY! BUY! AFTER all have said GOODBYE!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 18:09 - ID#210235)
@Andy Smith
Will someone please enlighten me on who this guy is, so I can better evaluate his pronouncements? He is being treated in posts as if he was the ultimate Euro CB insider. Who pays his bills? I thought he was a hack for Merrill Lynch, shows what I know.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 18:18 - ID#224149)
The Soap Opera's never change .
Prometheus ---Andy Smith ----changed his name ---was part of the Partridge family I think?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 18:25 - ID#28594)
Seldom does one see the fox turn and face down the hounds...
South China Morning Post, Mon Mar 8, 1998

Suharto remarks to test markets
Asian financial markets are bracing for more turbulence this week as Indonesian President Suharto was quoted yesterday as saying economic reforms prescribed by the International Monetary Fund were not in tune with the country's constitution.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Mar 08 1998 18:36 - ID#347447)
po' porri
Chas: Minting coinage. Ahhh Yess. My company is already considering such plans. You are, obviously, as brilliant as we! Our own gold and silver, God willing, will go in premium prices as special coin. The ultimate "hedge" is to make of gold and ( especially ) SILVER a CONSUMER RETAIL ITEM. Wouldn't you want to invest in a gold miner that did THAT??? Avanti! From your lips...

223: Thanx for the laffs. You ARE funny!

Donald: You are formidable. But the kitco kwiz is NOT a "trick kwestion." May the el nino gods continue to rain on your side of the Sound.

No Kitcoites, it was NOT 850 an ounce. Come on goldbugs, let's see what you're MADE of. Is it .999 or is it .000???

Isure: AOL worries on the Market indicate to me further gains. AOL is for amateurs.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 18:39 - ID#248180)
@Mozel -15:07 - Saudi's Oil & Gold
"But the Saudi's must act" This statement is possibly correct. I suggest that the "act" equals the "change" ANOTHER refers to. I would appreciate more focas and discussion from the academicians, investors, traders and analysts of this Kitco group regarding the "change". It appears that "change" or "action" is certain. The the M/East & China have by far a lessor aversion to change than the West. The demarcation between East and West is more clear and the gap is widening.The USA, the US$ & IMF are in a lose-lose situation. The USA requires internal inflation, and war to salvage the US$ and the USA & IMF must export inflation to maintain the balance. That will all "Change" from the "Act". When? What is the trigger? How?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 18:43 - ID#224149)
The news is close to death ---watch april 22
SDRer- why do you even mention that slime bag on this Gold page ---He is a communist and a thief that lives for death. Give it up OK. The only one that killed Gold Stocks in our lifetime.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 18:46 - ID#248180)
Great Debates of the Century "Right Here - Live"
I must leave for about 10 hours.
Thanks to all posters - it has been an interesting weekend.
Bart, once again, thank you.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 18:54 - ID#28594)
Poorboys--Observing, reporting NOT supporting!
About this time, most days, I check eastern press and bring forward
headline stories--if they are such as to move a market...I promise you I AM NOT WORKING a 'cause'...just sharing info! OK? {:- )

(Sun Mar 08 1998 18:57 - ID#210114)
APH Strikes Again
APH, who are you? Am happy to read your reports. Would love some background though.

The Hatt
(Sun Mar 08 1998 18:58 - ID#294232)
Why is it that Gold always opens down in Australia?????????????
I cannot figure out why the Aussies are always jumping on gold at the open! Just once I would like to see it open on the upside!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 19:02 - ID#368244)
Mike , I don't jump at mice, thats why I'm still in stocks . Believe me I know thats one strong bull. THANKS

(Sun Mar 08 1998 19:11 - ID#206358)
Thailand financial minister step now anytime..!
Another one bite the dust,hey...hey...!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 19:14 - ID#28594)
Speculation you understand...
One of the 'insider' briefs I read dealt with the difficulty that would
arise in derivatives should/could/would someone "trade" who had absolute knowledge of actions to be taken ( a govt's actions ) ...

Remember Lu Jian, President and Tian Yuan Chairman of the China International Futures Company, Ltd.? What wouldn't be possible? Slowly build up a tidy ( oh, say $750bn ) fund to do good works for the People?
Possible? Yes! Probable? Still studying that...{:- )

(Sun Mar 08 1998 19:20 - ID#153102)
If their diplomacy is as skillful as I suspect, the Saudi will prefer to act to bid oil for gold in a fashion and at a time to forestall envy, blame or accusation. There is wisdom in abiding until the fullness of time. After OPEC proves it cannot control production. After the storm from the East has put fear and trepidation in Western minds. Within eighteen months, I conjecture, but sooner, if friends arrive sooner from Europe or the East.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Mar 08 1998 19:21 - ID#347447)
kitco kwiz answer
OK, OK, I know it's not much time, but I doubt anyone will get this answer. The answer to the kitco kwiz kwestion "What was the highest price for gold per ounce in US currency?" is: $19,390.00 on May 31, 1781. Yes, friends, you read that right 19 THOU! So when Another, or some other, speculates on gold at umpty ump thousand per ounce, just adjust that figure for inflation and stand back. When the sh*t hits the fan ( as did the Continental Currency after the Revolution ) ANYTHING can happen. And it will.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 19:21 - ID#348127)

I am learning about futures and options and ran across the KRC offer to teach all for $200. Has anyone tried this? Is it reccomended? Steer me in the right direction guys.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 19:27 - ID#368244)
Congrats Poorboys
Poorboy, knows his stuff, give him his award , Mike.

Lurker 777
(Sun Mar 08 1998 19:36 - ID#347447)
Mike Sheller (kitco kwiz answer) ID#347447:
Date: Sun Mar 08 1998 16:43
Poorboys ( mike sheller ) ID#224149:
may 31 1781 --19,390.00 revolutionary war ( not copyrighted )

(Sun Mar 08 1998 19:38 - ID#347457)
@mapleman (KEN ROBERTS CO. ????
mapleman, after paying $200 fee to learn and loosing $10,000 on learning by your own mistakes, you may know something about options ( e.g., like to avoid them ;- ) )
Seriously, I hate options and futures - they are part of making this market similar to Las Vegas. However, if you want to trade and contribute to this market never going anywhere ( except up and down every day ) , you better learn how to do it. JMHO

(Sun Mar 08 1998 19:42 - ID#224149)
Astro people Know the dates
Mike Sheller ---No Reward necessary but tell me when gold gets to $180.00 --How about 2003 that damn Neptune Aaaa. ( Canadian Expression )

(Sun Mar 08 1998 19:44 - ID#257136)
Tolerant1. Sent mail to tolerant@hotmail @ 2:49 P.M. cst. It was waiting when I returned home.
Gotta be something amiss. I'll use the other email later.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 19:45 - ID#259400)
The following is a note I e-mailed my brother while deep into the cups. I submit for your comment.

Bro, lets throw out all the things we agree on and see where they lead us.
By the way, if you see something you don't agree on feel free to speak up.
ASIA. We both agree the asian tigers are in a state of turmoil.
Indonesia is in outright depression bordering on anarchy and revolution.
Singapore, Malaya, Thailand and a few others are in recession. Korea IS
beyond depression, they are in total bankruptcy. Japan is in a seven year
old recession that is tipping over into depression. All SE Asia has devalued and if the Chinese devalue with them they will devalue again. There does not
appear to be anything on the horizon to change SE Asia. The result is Asia will flood the US with cheap and maybe even soon to cheaper goods which we cannot keep out or match in price. There goes whatever number of
manufacturing jobs you want to assign to that. Lets give Asia a -3 for the US economy.
Europe. Europe is mired in a semi recession but that is not the big
news there. It looks like the Euro is going to go on line on time. It is
definite that it will have a partial gold backing. It doesn't matter what
per cent they wind up with for a gold backing because a gold backed currency will always draw support from the second and third world as opposed to a
pure paper currency. The Euro will compete with the US dollar and take away some of our business. I say the Euro is a -3 for the dollar.
The middle east. We lost face with the recent Iraqi thing but that is
not important. What is important is that we have been f***ing over the
Saudis for 20 years now. The Saudis have given us all the oil we asked for, financed our deficit current account deficits with cheap oil, take
greenbacks that we have deflated into wallpaper and we reward them by
allowing the world price of oil to collapse. Look at it from the Saudi point of view. Tanker loads of oil starting in the 70's were paid for with american dollars and the Saudis put those dollars in the bank. The problem is those 70's dollars today are worth 1/3 what they were back then and meanwhile the oil in the well gets lower and lower and lower while the dollars are worth less and less and less. You get the picture. I think, and so do many, many others that this is the year the Saudis switch currencys. It may be the Euro or it may be an oil for gold deal. Everyone agrees it will be this year. Meanwhile back on the farm all of Asia is pi**ed at the
US and our control over their economys. The chinese are rumored to be coming up with a gold backed currency for SE Asia. Lets just say the middle east and the currency thing is a -3 for the us. So far we have a -9 out of a possible ten. Do I really need to go on? By the way there is a 99% probability of all this sh** hitting the fan in 1998. Not next year or five years down the road but this year.
So far, and I think we are still in agreement, we have for 1998 a -9
out of a possible 10. Ok, now lets explore our options. The Japs start to
redeem treasurys. We can 1. Give them dollars from the existing currency
base and raise interest rates to attract the necessary capital or 2. Print more money at the risk of inflation. The Saudis start to redeem dollars in favor of the Euro so we can 1. Give them dollars from the existing currency base and raise interest rates to attract the necessary capital or 2. Print more money at the risk of inflation. If we raise interest rates the dollar will go up and gold will weaken. If we print money the dollar will go down and gold will go up. You be the judge and make your bet accordingly.
Ok, lets finally get down to asset allocation.
BONDS: As of a few weeks ago the 30 year US treasury was at it highest
point since they invented them some 20 odd years ago. If something is the
highest price it's ever been in history it would seem on the surface to be a bad bet. Besides interest rates have been in a long term decline since 1981. They have gone down for 17 years. Might they not be close to the bottom?
STOCKS: The Dow is at an all time high. The Dow is at an all time high
adjusted for inflation. The Dow is at an all time high based on valuation. The Dow is at an all time high based on book. The Dow is pretty much off the charts. The Dow has been in a bull market since 1981. How many bull markets in history lasted 17 years? ONE. This one. Might we not be close to the high?
Gold: Gold has been in a bear market since 1981. Adjusted for
inflation gold is lower than it was in the great depression. In the great
depression gold was at $35.00 an ounce. Give or take a little, I always have to throw that in because I know how precise you like to be, Gold is at about $30.00 an ounce in 1935 dollars. Given all that might it not be close to the bottom?
Given the Asian situation, the European situation and the Middle East
situation I say the US dollar is going to get hammered in the next 24 to 36 months. EVERY time the US dollar has gotten hammered in the past or the world markets have gone into turmoil gold has gone up. I say the upside potential for the Dow is nil to none with tremendous ( 30% ) risk on the downside for the rest of 1998. I say the upside potential for bonds is nil to none with tremendous ( 30% ) risk on the downside for the rest of 1998. I say the upside potential for gold is tremendous ( 30% ) for the rest of 1998. It's as low as it has ever been in history. Why would I suppose it to go lower in light of all the other things happening in the world. I say the downside risk of gold is nil to none ( 5% ) for the rest of 1998. No one on the planet thinks gold will go below $280 an ounce. That gives a 5% downside risk for gold with at least a 30% upside risk.
Asset Allocation: This does not apply here. Gold is not an investment.
Buy gold in 1982 and hold it 17 years and you lose your a**. Gold is a
traders game. Catch it on the upswing and you can make 100%. Catch the wave wrong and you drown.
Crazy Bill

(Sun Mar 08 1998 19:48 - ID#153102)
Thanks for the link to cases on the Federal Reserve and on the money issue. It can all be summed up, in the words of a friend of mine, as "Screw the Constitution; we want your money ( or slave labor for military scrip, as it were ) ." What a wonderfully deceptive phrase is "by necessary implication."

(Sun Mar 08 1998 20:00 - ID#26793)
@Mike Sheller
Your accursed rain curse is working. How do you do that?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 20:00 - ID#224149)
Better than Ezara
Bill2j ----Well said ---But the printing presses continue ------as the game continues ----The cycle is perpetual -----Away to find Ted -----He knows that C$

(Sun Mar 08 1998 20:03 - ID#341214)
Miro: Y2K DoD
Miro: Thanks for the additional data on the DoD resignations. I've been trying to find a source that might tell me if the resignations were voluntary or forced. Your post seems to suggest a little of both. My guess is that this is a voluntary resignation and these major players are exiting now because they see what is coming and don't want to be around when things start crashing. If you can elaborate on that subject at all I would surely appreciate the additional information.

Due to the fact that the DoD has the responsibility to remediate about a third of the systems critical to the Federal governments continued operation it would seem that this story is just as important as the appointment of the Year 2000 Czar. Yet, I've been hard pressed to find any mention of this subject in the general media available to us online. I too visited the ITAA site and could not find anything. I also searched the DefenseLink site and, while I found references to both Valletta and Rand, there was nothing about their resignations. I guess it's the same old same old: Useless good news will be shouted from the mountain tops and everything else will be buried under the mountain.

To someone like me the resignations are a much more important development than the appointment of some silly czar so close to the big date. The only thing the czar will be useful for is for everybody to point at and say, see, we're doing something. I think we might see a lot of high level people that are close to their IT departments in government and business bugging out this year and next so I was wondering if this DoD thing fit into that category.

I wish Mr. Money luck and I wonder how long he will last.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 20:08 - ID#372344)
@ Heard on the Street cont'd.... SE Asia.....
Earlier today I had an opportunity to speak to an old and dear friend
Mr. "B", a retired very wise and savy Goldman on the subject of SE
Asia "crisis". Our conclusions were as follows:

Said SE Asia "crisis" was instigated by the US, to:

a ) Keep the US$ and US markets KING as "funds" would naturally flow
to safety in the US.
b ) .Export Inflation, since cheaper goods would flow to the US making US inflation lower.
c ) .Have leverage over Japan and Europe since they have the most to loose in SE Asia.
d ) Decrease the demand for Oil worldwide, thereby lowering the US$Po
Oil, and thus lowering inflation.
e ) .Obviously all of the above, as has been duly noted by some here at Kitco, Keep the US$POG DOWN!

We both agreed that the extreme shock reaction of these SE Asian markets was NOT anticipated, in other words "they" felt said markets could be controlled, but now find themselves in a NO WIN situation,
since it has developed into a "World Crisis".

Our "solution" or probable scenerio for said "crisis" maybe one of two.
Scenerio 1.
After the first wave down a few weeks ago, then a second wave up,
we will see a third wave down, BUT this one will be BIG. This will
cause "them" to take immediate action on World curencies etc...
We will have the start of Deflation however, unlike the 30's "they"will
Inflate like hell,worldwide to consume SE Asian production which will send slowly at first, the US$POG, as Ralph would say "to the moon", while each and every player tries to better position themselves in world trade, which may take years....

Scenerio 2.

The third wave won't be down BUT UP, slowly at first,as the World turns away from the sole US$ dominated trading system, into a developing
regional trading blocks. The US$ come under severe downward pressure
Gold "goes to the moon"slowly at first but gaining speed as Oil and
others Russia, etc"kick" US but , forcing retreat home...

Either way the US$ is in a no win situation now, it is just a matter of
a bit more time...

stay tuned....

Lurker 777
(Sun Mar 08 1998 20:10 - ID#317247)
Miro & mapleman
I have been trading Options since last October. Every time I buy 100 Philharmonic coins, I buy a December 99 280 put to cover my ASSets. I have also tried to time the market with short expiration calls and puts but I am getting hammered. No Mas! Options are a great way to hedge your position if you own the Gold but not for the Newbee. We have great traders like EB, DA, Straddler and Cherokee but I am sure they lost money in the beginning. Futures are not for the novice unless it is gambling money.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 20:11 - ID#26793)
@Mozel: here is another sight with legal references. A repost.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 20:11 - ID#341214)
Spock: APH
Spock: I can happily report that in addition to making great market calls with his TA skills, APH is a dad and takes his kids to DisneyWorld. What more do you need to know!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 20:46 - ID#261269)

(Sun Mar 08 1998 20:49 - ID#330175)
what are ya testing

(Sun Mar 08 1998 20:52 - ID#261269)
thirty-five minutes between posts ...thot..
I had yer ISP or sumthing....

(Sun Mar 08 1998 20:54 - ID#330175)
I C~~~~~~

(Sun Mar 08 1998 20:58 - ID#330175)
Poorboys @ Lake Simcoe(Via Cuba).....
How was the rum & smokes ( cigars,that is ) ----betcha Cape Breton had better weather ( a little known fact ) and our beaches ain't crowded ( try deserted ) ...

(Sun Mar 08 1998 21:01 - ID#330175)
After much ruminating.........I think 'Another' is-------------suspense building------
Heavy Hitter

(Sun Mar 08 1998 21:03 - ID#284255)
Email unreturnable.

Your email received thanks.
My responce to you was returned though.
With this message:
The original message was received at Sun, 8 Mar 1998 23:45:46 +1000
from []
----- The following addresses had transient non-fatal errors -----
----- Transcript of session follows ----- Deferred: No route to host
Warning: message still undelivered after 4 hours
Will keep trying until message is 5 days old.
Have you received the email?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 21:04 - ID#261269)
Ted...what difference does it make ..don't you agree that
the world financial system is all f**-up ... and his scenaro makes just as much sense and any other one?? These markets defy logic....

(Sun Mar 08 1998 21:09 - ID#344308)

ever wonder who really pulls the strings?
this url has been posted before...will be again.

cash basis for soybeans in s america is .40 below
current world-wide spot prices.....what does this
mean? prices are fixing to tumble....big-time. their
huge harvest is fixing to hit the markets.our farmers
have been holding their crops hoping for higher prices.
not going to happen until the drought this summer destroys
most grain crops.........time is short.....the gold-n-grain
train is leaving soon...
can still get some cheap options....may5750 puts are CHEAP!!!!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 21:10 - ID#57232)
Mike McCurry: Spin Master for the President
All: Fascinating article from the Washington Post about Mike McCurry, and his damage control moves, while the Monica Lewinsky story unraveled. MM was 'always one phone call away from disaster'. Almost as complicated as being Chairman of the Fed. The investigative reporter, Michael Isikoff plays a prominent role in sniffing out the news about Kathleen Willey, and Monical Lewinsky. Comments about Matt Drudge having access to inner journalism circles are interesting too.

By the way Jim McDougal died in a Texas federal prison. Hope he had an autopsy -- even if it was 'natural causes'. Perhaps this once, an XXXgate death will be documented that is not suspicious.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 21:14 - ID#238295)
BILL2: very insightful post

HATT: The wek opening in Australia may feflect the pounding the Ausssie dollar has taken recently.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 21:19 - ID#413109)
Date: Sun Mar 08 1998 20:08
TZADEAK* ( @ Heard on the Street cont'd.... SE Asia..... ) ID#372344:
Would be grateful to you if you would email me, am interested to learn
more about the above. Thanks.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 21:20 - ID#288157)
Beijing 'sees US as waning superpower'
The mainland leadership holds "dangerous misperceptions" about US military power and intentions that could lead to political friction and even military conflict, a report prepared for the Pentagon warns.

This story is of interest because it exists wonders Why this story at this time? bbl

(Sun Mar 08 1998 21:21 - ID#330175)
BillD....what does F**-up mean???
Gotta change discs ( hold on ) ...a smooth transition from Cat Stevens to James Taylor.....Things been fuc*ked-up for a long time bro and the world always finds a way muddle through...but if this time is 'differen't'--I say bring it on ( I'll be ready ) ...still don't think ( that's obvious ) that my beloved DRIPS ( XON,SBC,PNY,CNG,SIG,HE,BGC ) will go out of business and if THEY do,then everythings goin down and I still got the tangible ( R.E. ) ...I continue to strive for self-sufficiency and never have trusted 'the system'...What's that sayin----'Authority Sucks'....About another: sorry but he comes across as complete BS to moi~~~~~~~~~

(Sun Mar 08 1998 21:23 - ID#330175)
welcome back

(Sun Mar 08 1998 21:25 - ID#344308)

mike sheller--

wheat is looking very good to me.....i'd buy the break
above 335....long term calls would be nice too....

(Sun Mar 08 1998 21:26 - ID#339265)
...Andy Smith and the dollar bulls are gloating.

What do you think that means?

F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 21:26 - ID#413109)
Long term gold vs US$ chart comparison
Panda, Sharefin-
You are the prividers of great charts, and comparisons with ratios.
Since the dollar relationship to gold has been spoken about endlessly
of late, why not see the Confucius side?!Please email so I won't miss

(Sun Mar 08 1998 21:28 - ID#339265)
ANDY SMITH IS CERTAIN THAT YOU CAN'T GIVE GOLD AWAY... his mind, gold and silver will be consigned to the rubbish heap of history.

What does that mean?

F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 21:29 - ID#339265)
F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 21:31 - ID#238295)
farfel: The definition of a goldbug has changed. Today a goldbug can be defined as someone who believes the gold bear will end some day.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 21:33 - ID#372344)
@ Reify...My e-mail is

(Sun Mar 08 1998 21:52 - ID#28594)
A. Goose, re: discussion Japanese Copper Fiasco...

1. Guess who else was trading copper futures[CIFO] actual fingerprints on this, but when one digs a little, there are some quite interesting associations! Dry run? --And not for the copper market!--

2. It is Awesome when history tosses something like this into ones lap:
More directly, it came about because of a large illegal outflow of gold from South Africa, which arose in response to the premium that could be earned on gold sales on the London market after the abandonment of the pegged wartime sterling-dollar exchange rate by the United Kingdom in March 1919. The South African commercial banks therefore had to obtain gold in London at a premium, but to pay gold out in South Africa at par in terms of their obligation to convert their banknotes into gold on demand. [SARB--historical overview]

(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:03 - ID#335190)
Iron Heel @ Jack London - On Gold & Surplus "And They were frightened by it"

by Jack London

It was at this time that Senator Mark Hanna said: 'The production of wealth in the United States is one-third larger annually than its consumption.' Also a fellow-Senator, Chauncey Depew, said: 'The American people produce annually two billions more wealth than they consume.'

'Sell them to countries with undeveloped resources,' Mr. Kowalt suggested.'The very thing. You see, my argument is so clear and simple that in your own minds you carry it on for me. And now for the next step.

Suppose the United States disposes of its surplus to a country with undeveloped resources like, say, Brazil. Remember this surplus is over and above trade, which articles of trade have been consumed. What, then, does the United States get in return from Brazil?'

'Gold,' said Mr. Kowalt.
'But there is only so much gold, and not much of it, in the world,' Ernest objected.
'Gold in the form of securities and bonds and so forth,' Mr. Kowalt amended.

'Now you've struck it,' Ernest said. 'From Brazil the United States, in return for her surplus, gets bonds and securities. And what does that mean? It means that the United States is coming to own railroads in Brazil, factories, mines, and lands in Brazil. And what is the meaning of that in turn?'
Mr. Kowalt pondered and shook his head.
'I'll tell you,' Ernest continued. 'It means that the resources of Brazil are being developed. And now, the next point. When Brazil, under the capitalist system, has developed her resources, she will herself have an unconsumed surplus. Can she get rid of this surplus to the United States?
No, because the United States has herself a surplus. Can the United States do what she previously did- get rid of her surplus to Brazil? No, for Brazil now has a surplus, too.

'What happens? The United States and Brazil must both seek out other countries with undeveloped resources, in order to unload the surpluses on them. But by the very process of unloading the surpluses, the resources of those countries are in turn developed. Soon they have surpluses, and are seeking other countries on which to unload. Now, gentlemen, follow me. The planet is only so large.

There are only so many countries in the world. What will happen when every country in the world, down to the smallest and last, with a surplus in its hands, stands confronting every other country with surpluses in their hands?'

He paused and regarded his listeners. The bepuzzlement in their faces was delicious. Also, there was awe in their faces. Out of abstractions Ernest had conjured a vision and made them see it. They were seeing it then, as they sat there, and they were frightened by it.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:08 - ID#253153)
Just a test
Just a test.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:11 - ID#31868)
Could someone post the address for the frames version of Kitco. Thanks

Lurker 777
(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:16 - ID#317247)

(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:17 - ID#252150)
Ostriches R Us
At 17:57 I posted a potential development that could be very negative for POG. I did'nt see 1 reply or comment. I have also posted views from such luminaries as Albert Friedberg & the Bank Credit Analyst, again no comments or replies.

I have come to the conclusion that that the majority of the posters on this forum have nothing new or relevant to say, but prefer to use this forum to support their preconceived, biased views, & don't want to be confronted with any contrary views, regardless of the relevance.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:19 - ID#57232)
Thoughts about the future -- World Liquidity deflation continues
Donald: You have done it again! Your 16:24 post indicates that the BIS thinks that liquidity is drying up! Perhaps all of those derivatives trades that went sour has made the lenders a little gunshy. The 'acquisitors' want the world's governments ( the people of the world ) to supply what has been lost.

World liquidity is drying up, Germany is reducing interest rates, and the IMF is broke: This does not sound good for Europe and the launch of the EURO on 1/1/99. Even if the European markets are showing signs of life, a liquidity crunch does not seem to be the ideal time to launch a strong EURO that will compete seriously with the US dollar. Unless -- certain key Europeans have hoarded US dollars to flood the markets. I wonder, just how much of those $8,000 tonnes of gold loans are from European banks? And just where did those hoarded dollars go? Treasuries, or equities? And just how much is Japanese, and how much European?

My guess is that AG will continue to quietly inflate the US dollar, in the hope that world liquidity will be restored. I wonder how much is needed -- 1 trillion US? We should watch our national debt ceiling -- and see if it keeps rising, because that would be subtle, deferred inflation. Logical place to inflate the dollar, because you don't immediately scare off the foreign investor. But -- not good for the average American, when the debt comes due around 2005-2010.

My guess is the dollar will go up short term -- flight to safety -- but down long term when others begin to realize what has been done to the dollar to keep the world afloat.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:25 - ID#31868)
Lurker777 - many thanks!
never, never, never, install IE4.0 again, agh...................and, a most unique thing, when it rains, my modem can only connect at 19200.


Thanks again.

bbl maybe!?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:27 - ID#348169)

(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:34 - ID#286199)
I read your 17:57 and thought your conclusions flawed. The formation of the Euro is generally thought to be short-term bad for gold. The failure of said union must therefore be good for gold. If the EMU forms up as planned, the various countries will have gold to sell as the reserve requirement is probably to be set low. We have talked about this all weekend. If your scenario works out and Germany shoots down the EMU, then each country would be where they are today, setting their own reserve requirements and that is better for gold. The failure of the EMu would be long-term bad for gold because the U.S. dollar would remain the reserve currency of the world and the U.S. can go on inflating and running huge balance of trade deficits etc. But your premise is flawed also, because Germany is committed by treaty ( Mastrict ) to joining the EMU. A single politician won't/can't veto the treaty and it's central banker proponents. The most likely scenario is that the EMU and EURO come online per schedule and the gold requirements are higher than the bears think. This is bullish for gold both short and long term. Short term, the leases will dry up and sales diminish. Long term the dollar meets competition and falls against commodities ( real assets ) . Longer term the Asians form their own currency union and the competition moves to a three way regional alignment. That would be very bullish for gold imho.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:36 - ID#57232)
I noticed your post about Helmut Kohl -- Seeing the future dimly
James: Not all of us think gold is going up shortterm, and sometimes a post just does not link up with the current focus of discussion. I found your post very interesting, but do not know enough German politics to know what to make of what you said. Do you have more info? How about gold purchases for EURO too?

By the way, even if Helmut Kohl remains Chancellor, I am not sure the EURO will be smoothly launched. There is the not so small matter of how much gold the EURO must have behind it, and whether the EURO will be more like a currency basket at its launching. I think that is what will happen, as Germany and France certainly will not part with their gold. And -- a currency basket is weaker than its strongest fiat currency -- unless one of the currencies is gold. So -- my guess is that if the proponents of the EURO want it to be a threat to the US dollar ( as they way it will be ) , they better start buying gold! And -- when they are done -- announce what they have done. Given what the average European central banker thinks about gold, I think this is unlikely. I think the gold-backed currency bit will not surface until we have more turmoil, and the first official return to a gold-backed currenyc will probably be in SEAsia.

Old Gold -- I agree with you -- gold will not rise until the US dollar drops. The only exception to this will be a world currency crisis of some kind that spares the US dollar -- in that situation gold and dollar will go up together.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:37 - ID#372344)
@ James...
The "news" you posted tonite about Kohl's opponent, and his possible
defeat, was dealt with last week in one of my posts.... the bottom line
is the Euro is a done deal, the Germans are in, even if Kohl looses,
which might not be...It's like our Cretien and the GST, when he was
campaigning for PM he said he would scrap it, you know the rest...
the fact is that there are "greater" forces at work and Kohl et al
are just "fronts"....

(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:38 - ID#253153)
Asia markets
Does anyone know how the Japanese and Honkong are openning ?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:38 - ID#335190)
James @ 22:17
James: "Nothing new or relevant" I suggest that we all have a bias, and if one were to consider the huge amount of information that is posted at this site. One could conclude we are having information overload.

There is not the time to read all the information. I do not have the time, yet I read most. Yours are read by me. I do not always go to the sites mentioned. I expect others will, and report, and I can watch the discussion unfold.

That's my take. Take Care.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:41 - ID#377196)
Indonesian Rupiah down 21% (nearing late January lows)

(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:44 - ID#377196)
Indonesian Rupiah down 21%...nears late January lows.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:46 - ID#30116)
Yield curve stuff....
Chart of the spread between the thirty year long bond yield and ninety day money ( what a term... ) . Obviously, inflation expectations are low. A hundred basis points more for money that will be returned in thirty years rather than ninety days????

(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:47 - ID#401460)


(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:50 - ID#348169)
Mooney's Famous Word's On Kitco ( from about a year and a half ago! )
RELAX. Smell the Rose's ( coffee - whatever! ) James we can't all be on here all at once everyday. Different people have different schedules and sometimes even business and family events in their lives to attend to ( such as Sunday Dinner at about 5:00 to 7:00 on Sunday nights ) etc.,Etc.,ETC. - So RELAX! Some of the all-time great participants show up here for weeks on end and then disappear for a month or two and then return again. ( Which reminds me has Ray or bb Fisher been around lately? -or ACW? - and how come I keep missing APH's posts lately? I must be having a spell of bad luck - damn el nino! Hey cherokee - where are you at ? ) People check in from time to time and review what was said in the last few hours, the last six, the last day, two, week etc. Believe this: if you say or point out something interesting, pertinent etc. - IT IS READ and APPRECIATED by many many readers whether it draws immediate comment or not. Also many lurk here who wait months before they feel adequate or adept at saying the right thing and yet they eventually do and yet they read on a daily basis to glean the tasty tid-bits of knowledge that all the rest of us share freely. Buck up matey, and take a well deserved walk in the park tommorrow and come back with more needed and appreciated inputs.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:50 - ID#335190)
Url @ Jack London (This may work?)
Jack London ( 1876-1916 )
The Call of the Wild ( Virginia Tech )
The Iron Heel ( Virginia Tech )
The People of the Abyss ( Virginia Tech )
The Sea-Wolf ( Virginia Tech )
Selected Klondike Short Stories ( ColumbiaNet )
The Son of the Wolf ( Virginia Tech )

(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:57 - ID#57232)
Suharto's government strikes all reference to the Financial crisis in 5 year plan!
All: This does not sound like the actions of the Indonesian leaders are realistic. This kind of thinking is likely to foment Revolution at a later time.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:58 - ID#30116)
Dollar index and gold.
Weekly chart of the U.S. dollar index and spot gold.

Lurker 777
(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:59 - ID#317247)
golddkm is that tonight?
Indonesian Rupiah down 21%...nears late January lows

(Sun Mar 08 1998 22:59 - ID#431263)
The Asian sea of red continues! Looks like another tough week for the IMF, AG, RR, and of course, BC!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:00 - ID#224149)
Ted It Came and Passed
Time That Is ------

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:02 - ID#335190)
March 8, 1998
Envoy to Indonesia U.S.-bound for consultations

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The U.S. ambassador in Jakarta will return to Washington this week for "routine" talks that will cover the International Monetary Fund's plan for Indonesian economic reform, U.S. officials said Sunday. Ambassador J. Stapleton Roy was due to arrive back late Sunday or early Monday. Details of his schedule in Washington were not immediately available.

A White House official described Roy's trip as routine, adding that U.S. envoys regularly returned to Washington for consultations as events warranted.

"He'll discuss a range of issues, including IMF and the current financial crisis in Asia," the official said.A State Department official cautioned against reading too much into the envoy's return, calling it "very routine."

On Tuesday, Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said Washington would oppose further disbursements of rescue funds for Indonesia unless the reforms were clearly back on track.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:04 - ID#330175)

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:04 - ID#253153)
When will Gold price rise ?
In my opinion, at some point in the future, probably when the public read
that the U.S officials want to relate our money to Gold and Silver again,both Gold and Silver should enjoy a long, healty demand at higher prices. I feel that this will come during a major depression. We probably
won't witness a major depression in business until late 1998 or 1999,
but the market has a way of discounting events ahead of time. For
this reason, I feel that Gold and Silver mining companies will begin an
upmove in April 1998 or there about. Such an upmove should progress
into 2000 , and later. The upmove in mining shares will be very slow,
at first,and gain momentumin 1999-2002. The first mining shares to move will be the senior gold stocks ( Barrick, Placer Dome, Homestake, ASA,
Battle Mountain ) and then the rest will follow. Any comments ?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:05 - ID#284255)




(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:07 - ID#57232)
G'nite all! May the world survive another week!
By the way, does anyone know Bradley F. Cowan's track record? He claims he predicted the Oct 97 market 'tremor', and he claims another 'tremor' ( or worse ) is yet to come. Would be interesting to know how good he is. His firm is called Market Geometry, P.O. Box 9756, San Diego, CA 92169-0756. Here is his web site, out of the 'Stocks and Commodities' Journal add.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:08 - ID#330175)
@ The end
April gold down .50 @ 294.70------S+P Futures down 4.80---nite all~~~~~~~~

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:15 - ID#348169)
Cheroee, Ted, and Silver
Cherokee - I tend to agree with you on the Soybeans, hope your right, love to get on board under $6.00 in prep for late summer run! Ted - You finally taking French lessons? ( Noticed you corectly spelt moi :- ) ) ALL - SILVER to have two big down days in a row? Approaching the pivot point right now - $6.02. ( Mentioned in HRK' s latest comment on Kitco 2 ) .
Goodnight ALL.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:15 - ID#286250)
Sharefin/JTF--This is the chap who heads China's International Futures Trading Co....
The Nature and Characteristics of China's Economic Cycle
by Lu Jian
SUMMARY: Lu Jian's article on the "Nature and Characteristics of China's Economic Cycles" provides statistical analysis of China's economic expansion/contraction cycles vis-a-vis those of the U.S.A., Japan, England, France, and pre-unification Germany. The article postulates that the average Chinese cycle in the past 40 years is 6.7 years in duration, with a standard deviation of 1.9 years. Periods of economic contraction are 1.5 times the length of periods of economic expansion.

On the contrary to this, there is a remarkable feature of China's economic cycle that is showing non-proliferated fluctuation in the world economic community, or not in synchronism with the world economic cyclical fluctuation. And this demonstrates in these years, our economy abides by a relatively independent cyclical fluctuation route in large timeframes. And this feature is decided by China's lower economy opening degree.

In the 1990s, China's economy will face a severe test in the world; how to prepare for the blasting and interference of world
economic cyclical fluctuation becomes an important context for China's economic policy research.

Jian Lu: Introducting Data Decomposition into VDM for Tractable Development of Programs. SIGPLAN Notices 30 ( 9 ) : 41-50 ( 1995 )
Jian Lu: Parallelizing Mallat Algorithm for 2-D Wavelet Transforms. IPL 45 ( 5 ) : 255-259 ( 1993 )

Selected as DAVOS Global Leader for Tomorrow...
Wouldn't he make a splendid warrior in the economic jihad? ( :- ( ( (

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:18 - ID#431263)
March Nasdaq futures DOWN 9.75 on Globex!! Look out tomorrow!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:21 - ID#30116)
Two more charts and then.... poof!
This exercise was designed to confuse. :- ) )

The dollar index has been inverted ( 1/x ) and compared to gold priced in U.S. Dollars.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:22 - ID#228128)
Dollar Index
Panda: I looked at that very chart of gold and dollar index today. Every gold bull and bear dating back to 1976 has a corresponding negative correlation to the dollar index. Do you know what the dollar index is composed of? Is it a basket of certain currencies and are they weighted in any way? I also noted in my view of the above mentioned chart that the absolute numbers aren't as important as the direction of change. In other words, their is not a constant that you can multiply the dollar index by to get the gold price. At various times the dollar index was higher and lower with similar gold prices. It was the direction that the dollar index was moving that mattered. If the dollar index whatever its level may have been was moving up on a sustained basis, then gold was moving down, and vice versa. So, that begs the question, what else has caused the POG to move down. Probably a combination of factors, including Central bank selling, interest rates, and the Asian deflation. It would be nice to put the numbers together though into a more complete mathematical model as opposed to hand waving.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:23 - ID#30116)
One more time....
The dollar index has been inverted ( 1/x ) and compared to gold priced in U.S. Dollars. I have expanded the scale in this chart. Good night all...

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:23 - ID#330175)
Bart taught me how ta spell MOI ( I ain't stupid ) --nite~~~

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:24 - ID#368244)
Gold, Pocket Watches and Pawn Shops
Want a way to spend a fun day. In most cities and towns, you will find many pawnshops. Went to some in Shreveport the other day, and bought some 1/10 ounce eagles for $30 each. Also picked up on some Gold Pocket watches below melt for the cases alone. Even if you dont buy anything you will be amazed at some of the stuff you see there. Being the Gold bugs you are I'm sure that you can tell the real stuff- TRY IT!

Good night, and good trading

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:27 - ID#228128)
Cool charts
Panda: what chapter in the Supercharts manual tells you how to overlay two sets of price data onto a single chart?

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:28 - ID#373403)
Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and all other potential IMF recipients
This quote from myself a few days ago:

"Here Asia, instead of defaulting on our corporations who give us hefty campaign contributions, take this $18 Billion and default on our taxpaying citizens."

Now from the Asian perspective. Once debt default becomes inevitable due to currency losses, what incentive is there for a country to transfer debt from foreign corporations to the IMF? The money leaves as quick as it enters but the IMF forces painful reforms on the economy.

I think Indonesia is quickly coming to the realization that it matters little if they default on the IMF or their foreign trading partners so they are resisting the politically upsetting IMF measures. The IMF will pull back a little as punishment and then do the same thing they did a month ago. They will beg Indonesia to take the money.

I wonder how long it will take Korea. The stigma is being lost on default just the same as it is with individuals and corporations.

I am off to the Yahoo Stock Chat Rooms to spread the word. Anyone care to join? One of us could lead and the other could act hesitant at first and then become "awakened".

My website if you are interested is:

Click on the word "custom" to see how jewelry is made.


(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:32 - ID#30116)
IDT & TED...
TED -- Good night.......

IDT -- I don't know the exact composition of the dollar index, but I'm sure that it's a basket of currencies, weighted, and that it's weighting changes from time to time. All that this seems to imply is that the dollar is the preferred 'thing' to hold. I'm just looking for a clue or warning of any impending change in sentiment. I'm sure that a quick search of the Web could turn up the Dollar indexes composition. Alas, it's getting late and I have to get up in a precious few hours.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:32 - ID#210235)
Read all your posts, thanks for taking the time to share what you're picking up out there. Will do the same as time permits. Don't worry about Kohl's coalition. He's a survivor who's been written off time and time again. Wait and see.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:36 - ID#287312)
It has puzzled me %(^$%%$
why it is that any Country suffering under far to much debt will benifit in the long run by more debt.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:37 - ID#286250)
Sharefin/JTF...He is (was) a professor of Computer Science!
Lu Jian. Born in 1960. Professor.
Research Fields: Software Development Automation; Specification Language; Formal Methods for Parallel Programs and Object-Oriented Method.

1."Framework of Algorithm Correctness in NDADAS", Science in China.
2.A Method of Acquiring Formal Specifications from Examples", ACM Software Engineering Notes.
3."The Design and Implementation of NDSAIL: A Software Automation system with Automated Learning Mechanisms", IFIP Information Processing '92.

( There is a picture of Lu Jian there, China's International Futures Company, Ltd. is headed by a 'rocket scientist'..fair assessment? Who just happened to spend time doing a study on time durations of economic cycles and who predicted that the 90's would see the five western economic systems in chaotic flux...BOY, I do not LIKE being knee
deep in coincidence!

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:39 - ID#30116)
Open a chart. Then insert ( second or third ) price data. Then, select 'format price data' ( or double click on the price graph in question ) . Go to the properties tab and select the appropriate subgraph number. i.e. The default is data 1 is subgraph 1 and data 2 is subgraph 2. Simply change subgraph 2 to subgraph 1. That's it!

Really gone now......... Good night all....

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:41 - ID#287312)
TO: JP / Price of gold projections
I don't know if your projections are correct or not JP, but I like em : )

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:45 - ID#408246)
Gold price rise
Agree that the next major price rise will occur as a result of the government wanting to reflate the economy and gold ( maybe silver too ) being the best way to do it. It will be the reverse of Central Bank selling. A way to put more paper and mostly credits out there after the bubble collapses and peole finally realize that debt is no longer advantageous.

The price from which this happens is unceertain, however, and could possibly be from even lower levels after many gold producers have given up. I'm for a 100 % gold coin backed money supply. I don't want to have to hold the stuff. Just want the right.

(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:48 - ID#267298)
Rea Gold
I know Rea Gold has filed for bankruptcy, but haven't
heard a word about them lately. Anyone have any info
at all?


(Sun Mar 08 1998 23:54 - ID#57232)
Should be logging off!
SDRer: Great pickup! Lu Jian is an expert in time series analysis. If he has been chosen by DAVOS, he was -- as you say -- at the right place at the right time! I suspect he has ties are with China, despite his US affiliations.

I read the article you posted -- it said several things of interest. First, China's economic cycles are becoming less violent, although they are still very strong, secondly, China's downturns are apparently without lasting effects, and thirdly -- the next downturn is now ( I think ) . Investment in China looks like a very good idea -- after the devaluation.