Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:01 - ID#153102)
If discretion is the better part of valor, then surrender must be the pinnacle of valor. There is no valor in intimidating yourself. Where is the valor in fleeing the field of contest ? Is surrender the new paradigm for victory ? Nothing ventured, nothing gained is true in everything.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:04 - ID#26669)
Please Mozel, I advise nothing!
That was an illustration from the history of the Roman Empire. Not modern day US. ( Not that I'm an historian. ) But I see your point, which was one mentioned in the Anti Federalist Papers some 200+/- years ago. I see as much more pertinant the fact that the US government is supported by paid-for votes from the welfare underclass, which knows no trade nor morality and which would just as soon eat the producing citizens as take our wealth if that is what it takes to sustain their idleness. I don't think that the form of government matters so much to the freedom of the people so much as its distance and you can't have distant government when Welfare buys votes even in small towns.
Good night.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:07 - ID#339212)
@ JP - deflation a reality?

Thanks for your inputs on Japan. It always helps to have an eyewitness like you.

The definition of deflation according to Webster's dictionary is:

"A reduction in the money supply resulting in an overall reduction in prices"

Has the money supply been reduced in Indonesia? or Malaysia? or Japan? or Korea?

Are the currencies of these countries reduced within the countries?

Forget their relative values to the US dollar. If you are absolutely sure that these currencies are reduced within the country, then you have deflation.

In 1973-1974 when the US market was crashing did you have deflation? NO, you didn't.

John Disney__A
(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:09 - ID#24135)
The Brotherhood of the chicken
It does my heart GOOD to see you comprehending
the wonder, glory, and variety of the noble bird.
for Mozel.
I admire your knowledge and tenacity in fighting
this Yankee Beast. But you cannot win. And to
destroy it you will also destroy yourself. I chose
to withdraw. To wear non descript clothing. I even
grew a beard ( not a Lincoln type ) .. and to travel
in foreign lands. I agree that knowledge is power.
But too much knowledge may be dangerous. There
seems to be a recent life shortening trend
developing among possible threats to the regime.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:09 - ID#373403)
Interesting Economic Analysis

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:15 - ID#188235)
I have been lurking here since January since I first bought gold, I am just a little guy only about 50 oz so far andit has been going down since I bought. I am not afraid yet as I only spend a small portion of my retired pay on it and am willing to wait for the turn around and buy as long as it is cheap. I enjoy the comments on the net here very much. I hope to learn enough that I can make a contribution to the forum.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:16 - ID#253153)
You are right about all these countries printing money like crazy, but despite of all the printing the economies in these countries are shrinking
and the their governments can't do anything about it. Remember, we have had inflation for almost 55 years in North America and no trend last for ever. I'm convinced that deflationay pressures are accelerating and this trend will continue until it exhaust itself.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:18 - ID#233199)
US Treasuries held by whom in Japan?

I pleas ignorance but seek enlightenment. Who hold and makes decisions about US treasuries held in Japan? Are they held by those that could decide to sell in order to bring the home the 'bacon" or are they held mostly by those that might move the chash elsewhere given the incentive?

Thanks in advance for your insights....

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:21 - ID#28594)
For Mozel--a small "Thank you."
National Debt as a Curse -- A President of the United States would, in my apprehension, occupy a prouder place in history, who, when he retires from office, can say to the people who elected him, I leave you without a debvt, than if he had fought as many pitched battles as Caesar, or achieved as many naval victories as Nelson.

And what sir, is debt? In an individual it is slavery. It is slavery of the worst sort, surpassing that of the West India Islands --for it enslaves the mind as well as it enslaves the body; and the creature who can be abject enough to incur and to submit to it receives in that condition of his being an adequeate punishment."
John Randolph, 1824

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:21 - ID#153102)
I have encountered so many spectating defeatists who rummage through history to justify their own comfort in servitude, who shackle themselves even without being given an order to do so, that I mistook you for another one.

Don't run out in front of trucks is good advice.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:23 - ID#227238)
Jewboy: Welcome to a paranoid's paradise. ...... No need to be apologetic, 50 oz here and 50 oz there and pretty soon you'll be as broke as the rest of us. ...... 'Cept for John Disney. He has the horses for backup to keep food on the table. .... BTW. How'd you get that handle past Bart's PC screening software???

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:23 - ID#339212)
JP on deflation

Have an open mind my friend. 10 plus years ago a similar situation was occuring in S. America, particularly in Brazil. Shrinking economies with inflated currencies, but no deflation.

Understand once and for ever: "Deflation is political suicide". The politicians understand this VERY WELL. They will avoid it at any cost.

John Disney__A
(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:28 - ID#24135)
There stands Mozel like a Stone Wall ...
For Mozel
You MUST be from Virginia .. there's no other explanation.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:28 - ID#339212)
Who holds US Treasuries in Japan?

Well SWP1, ask yourself who holds US Treasuries in the US and you have the answer for Japan.

Banks, corporations, brokerage house, and the like some on behalf for Japanese investors. Analogous to the US.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:35 - ID#28594)
JCI settlement--??
FT Thur, Mar 12, 1998

JCI: South African mining group to keep top mine after split

By Mark Ashurst in Johannesburg and Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson in London

JCI, the South African mining group, will unexpectedly hold on to one
of its best gold assets when the group is split up later this month.

Black shareholders in JCI will retain control of the Western Areas mine, the company will announce tomorrow, rather than passing it to Anglo American with its HJ Joel mine as previously planned.

The decision will alter plans by Lonrho, the UK conglomerate, to buy back
Anglo's 26.1 per cent stake in Lonrho. The South African mining giant had
intended to sell the entire stake to JCI in exchange for the two mines, and Lonrho planned in turn to buy the stake from JCI.

Under the revised deal, Lonrho will buy back 21 per cent and Anglo will
retain about 5 per cent of Lonrho's shares.

Lonrho's board meets today to approve the deal and to rubber-stamp the
R1.4bn ( 170m ) purchase of JCI's Tavistock colliery.

The transactions need approval from shareholders of both companies, but the latest twist in the long-running negotiations means that Lonrho will not be ready to put the deal to shareholders at its annual meeting on March 27.

JCI's settlement will enable blacks to retain a stake in the white-owned mining industry and could salvage the country's most troubled exercise in black economic empowerment.

It follows months of negotiations between black shareholders and Anglo,
which sold its controlling stake in JCI to promote black empowerment.

I no doubt do not understand the situation fully, but this seems...
well, rather racist?

Old Soldier
(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:35 - ID#185274)
For the record
Mozel, Ive hear a lot of tough talk from you. I admire tough talk from those who have done tough things. As tough as you talk, I suspect you must have killed a lot of Federals or Communists or something? Id like to hear your record of kills and hero medals. Au or Pb.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:37 - ID#255284)
Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Some good info on this unusual CB
6-Pack, Donald Mozel

Someone asked the question a spin or two ago Who owns the Reserve Bank of New Zealand?
The short answer is noone owns the Reserve Bank. It is a creature of statute, without shares or units or anything that would give it proprietary ownership. It is an appendage of Government.I

At the most basic level, the Reserve Bank has the duty of ensuring that people
can buy and sell goods and services using money, instead of having to barter.
Part of this involves providing currency. Cash is physically issued to the public
by banks, but they in turn buy their cash from the Reserve Bank. In addition,
banks hold accounts with us that they use to make payments to each other, on
behalf of their customers. For that reason the Reserve Bank is often called "the
banks' bank".

As the agency that issues money, the Reserve Bank is also required, by statute,
to ensure that money retains its buying power. In other words, the Reserve
Bank must guard against inflation or deflation. 


The Reserve Bank Act requires a public agreement between the Government
and the Reserve Bank which sets out in detail how the Reserve Bank is to
interpret its mandate to maintain "stability in the general level of prices." This
is called the Policy Targets Agreement ( PTA ) . The current PTA, signed in
December 1996, says price stability is defined as annual average price increases
between 0 and 3 percent in an adjusted Consumers Price Index. Previously,
between 1990 and the end of 1996, the target was 0 to 2 percent inflation. 


The Reserve Bank Act gives the Bank the sole right to issue New Zealand's bank
notes and coins, as legal tender. The Reserve Bank controls the design and
printing of New Zealand's currency and issues money to registered banks.

Retail banks buy currency from the Reserve Bank at face value and sell surplus
notes and coins back to the Bank in the same way.

It also mints some rather pricey, but interesting coins too

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:38 - ID#339212)
@ all

Amazing how safe the world is again from Iraq's mass destruction and biological weapons.

Amazing what power the news media have to scare everybody to death.

Amazing noone talks about them anymore.

Amazing some even thought such weapons existed.

Amazing what the media will feed us next time around.

Amazing how much time was spent at Kitco talking about them.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:40 - ID#153102)
The phrase Yankee Beast perpetuates and reinforces their propaganda, their lie, their divide to conquer strategy.

I met a man. He has knowledge. He has been paid a visit by one of Janet Reno's minions. The only way they will shut him up is to murder him. If you can be silenced by threat or dumb you down by threat, you might as well not be alive. Because you are not living your life after that anyway. You are living somebody else's script for your life. And if I can silence you and dumb you down you by threat, I can take your wife, your children, your land, your gun, and your gold in the same fashion and by the same means.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:41 - ID#28594)
Good Heavens! The Financial Times has taken leave of their senses!!!
FT Thursday March 12, 1998


Personal computer stocks may be out of favour following last week's startling profit warnings from Intel, Compaq and Motorola. But shares in companies involved in the internet continue to scale dizzying heights even though most of them have yet to earn a dime.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:48 - ID#373403)
Japan crashing in last few minutes!
see above

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:52 - ID#339212)
@ theMissingLink

Last Yahoo quote on Japan was down -0.95%. Where is the crash?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:52 - ID#188235)
@ Earl
Thanks didnt know how the handle would be accepted but after that what I am,as for Bart I dont know he probalbly thinks Im nuts. Anyway I hope to buy more as long as its cheap. Any davice on just what to buy for safety?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:55 - ID#373403)
I got jumpy when I saw the chart dropping so steeply.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:58 - ID#339212)
@ JewBoy

Well, lets see, gold is 4 billion ozs, bought 50 ozs,...

well you own 1 / 80,000,000 of the world gold.

Lurker 777
(Thu Mar 12 1998 00:59 - ID#317247)

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:01 - ID#233199)
@Who holds US Treasuries in Japan?

Isn't it true that now Japanese pension funds are more free to invest wherever they wish - as opposed to necessarily within Japan? Is this true?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:03 - ID#153102)
@Old Soldier
Old Soldier ( For the record ) ID#185274:
Mozel, Ive hear a lot of tough talk from you. I admire tough talk from
those who have done tough things. As tough as you talk, I suspect you
must have killed a lot of Federals or Communists or something? Id like
to hear your record of kills and hero medals. Au or Pb.

What is tough about my talk ? Are truth and knowledge tough ? Or just HARD ?

I am not a military hero. If I must have killed on command or kill by command to have your ear, or your respect, I will do without it. If murder and killing were a plan, the twentieth century would have made this planet into heaven. I have found it difficult to screw up my courage and speak in public. ( And this forum is not the public place I mean. ) But, I have done it. And, God willing, I will go on doing it.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:05 - ID#342376)
@ Lurker 777
On another site, I inquired about purchasing LEAPS Put Options on the OEX as a protection ( or investment depending on how you look at it ) The response I got was that they are VERY expensive and so I never looked into it anymore. Perhaps I should inquire more. You can't go wrong with a December 1999 expiration! Any comments?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:05 - ID#31868)
mozel, 222 years later and we have to start all over eh!? Well, this
sounded pretty good back then, still sounds good today. to me at least, I figure, why let all that good stuff some of those wacky kids wrote 222 years ago go to waste.

Our present condition is, legislation without law; wisdom without plan; a constitution without a name; and, what is strangely astonishing, perfect independence contending for dependence. The instance is without a precedent; the case never existed before; and, who can tell what may be the event? The property of no man is secure in the present unbraced system of things. The mind of the multitude is left at random, and seeing no fixed object before them, they pursue such as fancy or opinion presents. Nothing is criminal; there is no such thing as treason; wherefore, every one thinks himself at liberty to act as he pleases.

Thomas Paine
January 1776
Common Sense

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:06 - ID#233199)
@farfel : Thank you
Thank you for your 20:36; 20:01 & 19:30 posts

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:06 - ID#373403)
4 billion ounces gold
Lets say Warren decided to buy 20% of world supply. 800 million ounces at $300 is $240 billion. ( price will not rise because it is worthless after all ) Does he have that kind of money?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:09 - ID#339212)
@ theMissingLink

Warren alone probably not, but from where is he going to get it? So much of the yellow is not up for sale.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:10 - ID#255284)

Suharto and family have that sort of money, I believe.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:12 - ID#339212)
@ aurator

QE2 may be too!

Lurker 777
(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:18 - ID#317247)
Today I was quoted $700 for each Dec. 290 put and Phillies for $308. I buy the puts to cover my physical holdings and your downside risk is less than 8%.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:21 - ID#252150)
It's coming. All this bs about all the jobs that have been created & the 4.6% unemployment won't prevent it. The problem is that while 20-30% of the population are doing really well, the rest are either in jail, on welfare or working for subsistence wages. Even to keep up this anemic growth, people that consider themselves upper middle class have had to remortgage their homes-some @ 125%. Too much wealth is being concentrated in too few hands & the vast majority have very limited purchasing power.
It won't take much of a shock to collapse this ecocomic house of cards. We are almost 100% dependant on the PPT.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:21 - ID#153102)
@JohnD @aurator
Re: Stone Wall You credit me too much. Way too much.

@aurator Seems not like the S.A. or U.S. Central Bank at all. More a Department of Money thing.

Old Soldier
(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:21 - ID#185274)
Young lions take up the spear
Mozel, Well said. You are new at going in harms way and there is a first time for everyone who does so. Truth and knowledge are both hard. To talk them you must be tough. I do not doubt you. You are assuming a leadership stance. When your followers gather round you do not fail them.

You do not have to kill to get my ear. You have it by your proud words. My point is that "power comes out of the muzzles of rifles." Do not think that you can talk your way to success or "the twentieth century would have made this planet into heaven." At some point, when the talking is done and the proud words have been spoken, the only thing that separates a serf from a free man is the willingness to fight and die if needs be.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:24 - ID#255284)
Chicken Standard Bank and an introduction to the fauna of Aotearoa
Since we first started chucking the chicken standard around, you will recall that crusty & I tried something similar with bread before we tried chicken, I've had ANOTHER thought.

That is rather than working out how much local currency per pound ( we use kilos downunder ) of chicken breasts -- breasts is also not a good standard-- is too much variation, and has value added components of labour, presentation and packaging-- I propose we work out

**pounds of chicken per ounce of gold in local conditions**

The chicken should be plucked, gutted, bagged and fresh.
then we get the gold standard chicken. Uh hu.

"Moa" the giant birds of pre-historic NZ. With no natural predators, these birds developed 6 or more species. The largest stood over 12 feet tall. Arriving from their "Hawaiiki" homeland, the first Maoris had eaten all their chickens during the many weeks of voyaging in out-rigger canoes. They arrived on Aotearoa ( The Land of the Long White Cloud ) naming it after their first sight of land, a massive cloud bank. Once on shore they saw birds that looked like their chickens. They called these giant tasty and easy-to-catch birds, "Moa" meaning, chicken.


(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:29 - ID#255284)
I am so greatful for the question, I have studied this RBNZ in some detail, and have more to cover. Yes, like a Dept of money, I suppose. THe RBNZ is charged with the responsibility of maintaining "Inflation" in 0-3% band, it has to adjust monetary policy accordingly. Of course, noone knows how deflation will affect these formulae. Please feel free to ask any further questions, anyone.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:30 - ID#252150)
Ted@Conventional Stocks
Do you mean stocks that pay a dividend & go up in value? No, I don't own any of those.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:33 - ID#242246)
Any opinions on whether supply and demand will soon overcome this market? Traders, IMHO, can only fight the tide so long. Interesting to note the relative strength of silver share prices during the slide from around $7. Not sure what this would indicate. Have we established the "somewhat higher equalibrium" at current range?

Does anyone else follow Avino Silver and Gold ( ASM ) ? It seems like a good little company with a 500,000 oz production AG mine, with under 5 mil float, and negligable long term debt. Also, over the past year has upgraded it facilities, in anticipation of better prices.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:33 - ID#335190)
"I have found it difficult to screw up my courage and speak in public."

I also have been there. Yes, when you must speak up/out.
I am gone.....Take Care

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:39 - ID#153102)
Thank you for your words. There is a time and a season for all things as your words of wisdom reveal you know full well. As for leadership, being there will be honor enough for this private first class citizen.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:41 - ID#31868)
Go to and hunt through the GOLDBUG articles. I am almost positive you will find mention of Avino there. If not, his email is at the bottom of the page. I am sure he would respond to a direct question when he has time.

also have you been to - You sound like you have, but sometimes these things slip right under our noses.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:48 - ID#153102)
@Tolerant1 Your passage from Paine captures our situation exactly,
though our public is not yet so well informed as was his.

Old Soldier
(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:51 - ID#185274)
Take up you commission

Mozel, You have no choice but to remain silent or be a leader. You are a wizard of words and you speak freely. When that skill and that propensity are combined, followers will assemble in your wake. You are not then a private first class citizen. You have made yourself a brand new sparkling Second Lieutenant of Infantry. Your troops will follow you if for nor reason save idle curiosity and in your case much more. If you lead them to victory, your name will be whispered with reverence around the campfires of warriors for a score of years. If you fail them, you will be cursed for a hundred years. Leadership takes tough broad shoulders. My advice; take up the cudgel willingly and proudly or touch it not at all.

Mozel, You have no choice but to remain silent or be a leader. You are a wizard of words and you speak freely. When that skill and that propensity are combined, followers will assemble in your wake. You are not then a private first class citizen. You have made yourself a brand new sparkling Second Lieutenant of Infantry. Your troops will follow you if for nor reason save idle curiosity and in your case much more. If you lead them to victory, your name will be whispered with reverence around the campfires of warriors for a score of years. If you fail them, you will be cursed for a hundred years. Leadership takes tough broad shoulders. My advice; take up the cudgel willingly and proudly or touch it not at all.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:53 - ID#393224)
Will a Japanese recession prick the US bubble?

Japan's export growth runs out of

By Tony Boyd, Tokyo

Japan's downward spiral into recession is gaining
momentum as the positive impact of net exports starts to
fade because of declining export growth and a bottoming
in the decline in imports.

Balance of payments figures for January, released
yesterday, point to a likely negative contribution to
economic growth from net exports in the first quarter of
1998, according to market economists.

A negative GDP figure for the three months to March
would confirm that Japan is in recession, which is defined
as two consecutive quarters of negative
quarter-on-quarter GDP growth.

Although the fourth-quarter GDP figure for 1997 will not
be released until tomorrow afternoon, there is a
consensus among banks and think tanks in Japan that it
will be at least minus 1 per cent annualised.

Fourth-quarter GDP forecasts range from minus 4.7 per
cent negative by Daiwa Research Institute to positive 0.1
per cent by Goldman Sachs Securities. Yesterday's
balance of payments data raised alarm bells because of
the pointers to a decline in the contribution to growth
from net exports.

"Gross exports are rather sluggish and gross imports have
been in negative territory, but there is some evidence of a
bottoming out so overall net exports will have less
contribution than in the October-December quarter," said
chief economist at Barclays Capital Mr Susum Kato.

"In the October-December quarter, we had a large
increase in exports and a decline in imports which made
net exports contribute 0.5 percentage points to growth.

"Net exports will have a less positive contribution, or
even slightly negative contribution, in the first quarter
which means actual GDP growth will be in negative

Mr Kato said a negative fourth-quarter GDP figure later
this week would bring added pressure to bear on the
Japanese Government to stimulate domestic demand, but
there was a danger that it would "waste the money" with
more public works.

"There is downward momentum in the economy so it will
be quite difficult to reverse this," he said.

As well as highlighting a slowing in the engine of
economic growth, the January balance of payments
figures gave further ammunition to America because of
the surge in the year-on-year current account surplus.

The January current account surplus rose 212 per cent to
476.2 billion, the 10th consecutive month of increase.
Merchandise trade was in surplus by 538.8 billion,
more than double the figure in the previous year, while
the services deficit was 512.2 billion, slightly less than
the previous year.

Economist at Lehman Bros Japan Mr Matthew Poggi
said that weak imports were a sign of the weakness in
domestic demand.

At the same time, exports were suffering from the
downturn in Asia.

"The most significant aspects of these figures are what
they are saying about first-quarter GDP growth and
trade," he said.

"On both those counts, the message is negative."

Old Soldier
(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:54 - ID#185274)
Poor technique
Well men, by that last it is obvious I have lost trigger control. I will be away in my tent for a while. I am proud to have served with you.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:57 - ID#242246)
Yes, I have been through both sites you mention. Thank's anyway though. Seems like somebody won't let this one go below $2 Canadian, which where margin calls are made I think. With its tight float it hasn't been too tough. Note: I don't own this stock.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:58 - ID#255284)
Old Soldier

You have a mighty heft with the pen, too.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 01:59 - ID#393224)
Failing letters of credit.

Exporters fear letters of credit

By Stephen Wyatt, Washington

World oil markets steadied yesterday after plunging to
nine-year lows earlier this week as precious metals, on
the back of stronger platinum and palladium prices,

But that was the good news.

Most other commodity markets drifted lower, partially
unnerved by events in Indonesia and partly reeling from
the potential deflationary impact of the slumping oil

President Soeharto's re-election, his apparent intransigent
position on a currency board and the stand-off with the
IMF have done little to improve sentiment in commodity
markets that Asia's troubles are coming to an end.

It is particularly unnerving for Australia's exporters to
Indonesia. As the political and economic scene worsens,
the threat of failing letters of credit -- the backbone of the
commodities trade - increases.

And the Australian cotton industry is on the cusp of its
1998 shipping season. This is the time when letters of
credit are either successfully opened or are dishonoured.
Australia ships about 30 per cent of its billion-dollar
cotton crop to Indonesia.

But Indonesia can't take all the blame for the generally
softer global commodity markets.

In terms of poor commodity price action, the sugar
market won the prize yesterday. May '98 New York
sugar futures closed at their lowest level since August
1993 on continuing oversupply and soft demand from

North Sea Brent crude oil continues to trade at its lowest
level in nine years, while the US marker crude -- West
Texas Intermediate -- fell another 7 yesterday to close
at $US14.26/barrel. Fears of oversupply have been
heightened by the fight within OPEC between Saudi
Arabia and countries that are producing above their
OPEC imposed quotas.

The base metals have lost their recent upward
momentum, despite another closure announcement --
Denehust's Woodlawn mine in Goulburn, NSW ( 35,000
tonnes lead, 7,000 zinc, 6,000 copper ) .

Rising aluminium producer stock figures for January,
released yesterday, took some of the wind out of the
bull's sails. The IPAI announced a 79,000 tonne increase
in unwrought stocks and a 108,000 tonne increase in
total stocks.

And the net result of all this, is that Australian commodity
indexes are being knocked lower. Australian commodity
prices, as measured by the Commonwealth Bank's
commodity price index, have fallen to their lowest level
since October 1994. And that was before this week's oil
price slump and sugar weakness hit.

But on the precious metals front, the news was a lot

Silver rallied more than 22/oz to $US6.32/oz in New
York on continuing tightness and gold rose US$1.40/oz
to US$296/oz.

The price leaders were platinum and palladium.

These markets jumped higher on renewed fears of
shipment delays of these metals from Russia to Western
buyers, especially Japan. Russia is the world's largest
producer of palladium and second-largest producer of

Also, reports from Australia's Delta Gold, that BHP's
target for full production from its Hartley platinum mine in
Zimbabwe by the end of this year was unrealistic, also
lent the market some support.

Delta, which owns 33 per cent and BHP 67 per cent of
the Hartley project, pointed to problems with labour and
the smelter.

April platinum futures in New York rose by 1.5 per cent
or $US5.80/oz to $US388.50/oz while June palladium
futures rose $US6/oz or 2.5 per cent to $US246.25/oz.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 02:06 - ID#252150)
An interseting perspective on the Asian situation by Lord Rees-Mogg
He does'nt seem very optomistic & places a lot of the blame on the hedge funds.

Capitalism of the casino

When I was in Hong Kong last week, I was told an intriguing story about George Soros. He is said to have taken part in last October's speculative attack on the Hong Kong dollar, which was beaten off; he is also said to have lost $2 billion as a result. There are two interesting points about this story: the first is that it is believed by senior figures in Hong Kong; the second is that it is not correct. Yet it is an example of the hostility to financial speculators which is spreading throughout Asia.

It is not only Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamad, the Malaysian Prime Minister, who expresses this hostility; many others do so more discreetly. The chairman of Goldman Sachs, Jon Corzine, recently went to Tokyo to meet and greet his bank's customers. At one meeting he found himself being attacked most virulently over his bank's role in global markets. Some Japanese tabloids have started an anti-Semitic campaign, blaming the financial troubles of Asia on Jewish speculators. I did not hear the least hint of anti-Semitism in Hong Kong, but even now one hears plenty of criticism of the damage done by global speculators. Popular anti-Semitism is also reported from the Asian Islamic countries of Malaysia and Indonesia.

There is danger in this. The orthodox economic argument, which many people in Hong Kong would accept, is that there was a major flaw in the policies of the worst-affected Asian states; speculators, led by the hedge funds, spotted the market anomaly and forced a correction. There is some truth in that - speculation succeeds only when it is based on reality.

At a popular level, the role of the speculators is not regarded in so benign a way. They are seen as the Germans saw the bankers in the inflation of the 1920s. Most Germans were ruined by the great inflation, but successful speculators became rich. In Asia, many businessmen have lost their businesses and many ordinary people have lost their jobs. The ultimate cause may be the weaknesses of Asian "crony capitalism", with its tendency to corruption, but the immediate cause was the withdrawal of funds by international bankers. Few of these bankers were Jewish, but the hedge funds undoubtedly acted as sniffer dogs for the banks, and many New York hedge fund managers are said to be Jewish.

In Japan, it is the Japanese banks which are currently imposing a destructive credit squeeze on small and medium-sized Japanese businesses. In yesterday's Financial Times there was a horrifying account by Michiyo Nakamato. "Japan's credit crunch is hitting middle-class homes, where executives are taking their lives ... companies find that the banks they had relied on all along are suddenly pulling out." This is happening to relatively healthy as well as to unsound businesses. The same sort of credit squeeze happened in Britain in the early 1990s, and many smaller British businessmen swore they would never trust a bank again. In Japan, some anger is being directed against international speculators.

The hedge funds are relatively small, with total assets of only a few hundred billion dollars; their function is to act as buffers between investors and markets. The big assets are those of the world banking system. Yet the hedge funds get their finance from the banks, so the banks know what the hedge funds are doing. The profits are made when a strong trend is established, which occurs when the big international banks pile in behind a market movement that has already started. Hence speculation in currencies tends to exaggerate fluctuations; one should not think of these currency traders as primarily in competition with each other, but as in collaboration with each other in building big waves. Such speculators, in an open global market, may serve a useful purpose in correcting anomalies, but at the expense of massive and recurrent destabilisation.

If one looks at the process from the point of view of Asian governments, it is almost intolerable. They may recognise the defects of their own system. The incoming Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji's new economic policy is concerned to reform the Chinese banking system, to prevent over-investment, to take the Government out of business decisions, to reduce corruption and so on. But he plans to carry out these reforms before China considers making the currency convertible. It would be hard to argue that his task would be easier if China, as well as Hong Kong, had had to cope with the massive inflow and outflow of these speculative funds.

In Asia, there is the additional resentment over the dollar's monopoly as a hard currency. Asia has a much higher savings rate than the United States, and substantially finances the US Government. To them, it seems that the money goes from Washington to New York, to be used to speculate against their currencies. They blame America; they blame Westerners as such and some of them blame the Jews. It is becoming an ugly and unstable relationship.

The American response is to advocate more liberalisation, and to put the blame on Asia's past policies of restriction. I doubt whether the Asian governments will be persuaded to take the American view. At present, it is the greater China economy which has withstood the crisis best, though, as Mr Zhu points out, China still has massive anomalies to correct. Hong Kong and Taiwan have been protected by the stability of China, and China does not have a convertible currency. China is now, in purchasing power parity terms, the world's second largest economy. It seems likely that the Chinese will move slowly on capital liberalisation.

The International Monetary Fund has been holding a seminar in Washington on capital account liberalisation. The seminar reached the familiar Western consensus. As reported by Robert Chote for the Financial Times: "Asia's financial crises should not discourage emerging market economies from opening themselves to capital movements, but they should make sure domestic financial systems are strong enough to cope with big inflows and big outflows ... numerous speakers emphasised that the price to be paid for these gains was the danger of greater economic instability as money flowed in and out." They could well say that again.

In finance there are two perilous mismatches; one is the mismatch between currencies and the other the mismatch in terms of time. Those companies in Asia which borrowed in local currencies did not suffer when those currencies were devalued; those which borrowed dollars were hurt by the devaluations. Equally, short-term borrowing to finance long-term investment can never be safe. The Asian countries were building factories, offices, hotels and other business assets which have a long life, and sometimes a slow return. They borrowed funds which had flowed into their countries on a purely short-term basis. They assumed, wrongly, that similar funds would always be available. When the short-term funds were withdrawn, these businesses went bust.

Michel Camdessus, the managing director of the IMF, still argues that "it is clear in theory that free capital flows are a good idea. They offer borrowing countries the ability to finance more investment and promote economic growth". That is absolutely true of investments which are matched in terms of currency and timescale. Those investors who buy equity shares in the stock markets of emerging countries contribute positively to the economic growth of the countries concerned. But short-term speculative investments, which can move into and out of the currency within minutes, do not help to finance investment. The only use you can prudently make of short-term funds is a short-term use. Liquidity of the speculator can be achieved at the expense of the potential insolvency of the borrower.

There is now a huge financial industry which is purely speculative in character; it centres on the currency trading of international banks. It is deeply resented in those countries which have been ravaged by its inflows and outflows, however much they may have contributed to their own misfortune. Because it is entirely short-term in character, casino capitalism makes little net contribution to long-term investment. What investment needs is a proper matching of time to time; the world banking system, whether at the IMF level or at that of the Japanese banks, is failing to provide that match.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 02:07 - ID#31868)
Winston, I can tell you this of Avino, it is very, very
thinly traded. Any price movement upwards in silver and it jumps. It tends to hang up at level, even when the price of silver comes down a bit. I would say if you buy, forget it for a while. Just tuck it away and wait. This of course is if you feel the price of silver is moving higher.

With the additional gold properties in its portfolio it does have the horses in place to move up nicely with both metals increasing in price. At present I am unsure of its financing, but as the write ups suggest they have never had a problem in getting money when they need it.

Hope some of the above was useful. At present I do not own it either. I am loading up on CFB and FSR as they have dropped to levels where I think they have excellent value. FSRshould be releasing new information by the end of this month which will increase their reserves quite nicely.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 02:10 - ID#153102)
@OldSoldier @Spirit of '76
You must have seen it. I hope you recall the painting "Spirit of '76" which depicts a drummer boy, a man playing the fife, and a white haired man bearing the standard. What I want to share is this. I saw that picture a thousand times before I understood its message: it took three generations united to win Independence on this continent. It will require the same again.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 02:13 - ID#252150)
optomist=optimist. Need spell-check.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 02:26 - ID#393224)
All-- have you heard of 'shotguard' -- developed by the Israelis?? You fit it on to the end of a rifle and the FIRST shot fired melts and disintegrates before leaving the muzzle. The 2nd shot removes the debris and fires as normal.

Great for when your 5 year old kid is playing with dad's rifle. Come to think of it, would save many of dad's mates, when dad is playing with the rifle!! How many lives would be saved if fitted to all rifles??

(Thu Mar 12 1998 02:40 - ID#252391)
No Warren Buffett effect
Several hours ago it was reported here that Warren Buffett would have a statement on Saturday about his silver purchases. The market has since gone up 3 cents and fallen 3 cents. I'm surprised there isn't anybody commenting on their expectation of his comments. I wouldn't want to be short, but the market seems to be trading more on the recession expectation in Japan. Gold is falling by the minute. If the gold enthusiasts will note: 290 is closer to the current price than $300. Me thinks we may all believe each other's hype a little too much.

We'll see.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 02:47 - ID#393224)
2:32 am ET
Apr. gold 2945 -6
May Silver 6130 +5
May Pork Bellies 42000 -100 ( a misprint )
Go Pork!!

The 14 y.o. daughter ( going on 29 ) is dragging me down to Pizza Hut for dinner as the missus has deserted us for a staff meeting. I am going to discuss gold, silver and the IMF with her. She is going to discuss the Spice Girls, Aqua and 'boys' with me. Thank heavens Pizza Hut serves Victoria Bitter!!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 02:59 - ID#393224)
Many thanks to Memaurator--a reprint.

Date: Thu Sep 25 1997 05:37
Nick ( @Canberra ) ID#386245:
If you want to attend a barbecue and have a good time there are a few
rules you should follow:
1 ) Make sure you have your wiener on a stick well before the fire is
2 ) Do not put your wiener into a raging fire. Wait until the fire has
died down.
3 ) When the fire is flickering gently and most campers have lost
prepare to put your weenie in the fire.
4 ) Just as soon as a few of the bigger campers put their weenies in the
yours in quickly. Do not put all of your weenies in the fire at once.
5 ) If the bigger campers pull their weenies out of the fire before they
cooked---pull yours out immediately!! If the fire gets too hot you
should also
pull your weenie out. You can put your weenie back in when the fire
down a bit.
6 ) If your weenie is cooking along nicely, put another couple of
weenies in the
7 ) When all of the other campers see how well your weenies are cooking,
will soon come and join you. Get ready to pull your weenies out.
8 ) When every camper in the area is running to the fire with weenie in
hand---pull all of your weenies out of the fire!!
9 ) Now sit down and have a nice meal while all of the other campers
fight over
weenie space. Ignore them, as many will drop their weenies into the
10 ) Even if you are still hungry, do not rush back to the fire with
weenie. Sit back, relax and enjoy yourself. REMEMBER--there will always
another fire, but you can't always replace a burned weenie!!!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 03:01 - ID#153102)
@jims Unless you believe the price of gold will always be so controlled as it is today or are just trading, near term price drops are not crucial. And if you are wrong about their having perpetual control of it and you let go of your gold, you will regret it ever after.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 03:22 - ID#255151)

aurator--As I understand it, control of the RBNZ is with the Executive Branch, since the Finance Minister appoints and can dismiss the Governors and Board of Directors. Question--How is the head of the Executive Branch elected? In a direct popular vote, or by a majority in the Legislature?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 03:42 - ID#432148)
mozel - your 02:10 - Spirit of '76
Good message, and you probably know that only 1/3 of people supported the
revolution, 1/3 were undecided, and 1/3 were actually tory supporters.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 03:46 - ID#257148)
I shall investigate and report.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 03:58 - ID#432148)
Nick@C- Very clever, sage advise re barbecue :-)
Knowing all this, one can still get ones fingers burned, of course.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 04:13 - ID#153102)
@GoldBug23 @Earl
@GB The odds were against them, weren't they ? Perhaps that is why there are so many expressions of gratitude to Providence in their writings.


(Thu Mar 12 1998 04:17 - ID#411331)
@Winston re Avino Silver Have you seen any proven silver reserve
figures for Avino? I looked at this company, and all I could find under reserves was the phrase "mountains of silver". In this day and age,
any promoter who tries to flog a stock with vagarities like this
deserves contempt from the investing public. If I am too abrupt, and
Avino has published some concrete numbers, please accept my apologies
and indeed, many people on this forum would be interested in hearing
about them. I took my position in FSR, which has proven reserves,
and expanding production.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 04:22 - ID#39845)
Heads roll at the BOJjy. What the trunk is completely rotten yet the tree stands!
Thursday 12 March, 1998 ( 5:45pm AEDT )

Japan's central bank chief has announced his intention to
resign, following the first bribery scandal in the bank's

Yasuo Matsushita told Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto
over the telephone, before officially announcing his
intention to step down.

However Mr Matsushita has not revealed when he intends
to leave office and there have been no discussions about his

His resignation follows the arrest this week of a senior Bank
of Japan official, suspected of taking bribes from at least
two commercial banks.

It's alleged he traded sensitive information about the Central
Bank's operations in exchange for about 50-thousand
dollars in entertainment.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 04:29 - ID#183109)
HARMONY REFINERY INFO (can't recall who was asking for it )

(Thu Mar 12 1998 04:33 - ID#413109)
Date: Thu Mar 12 1998 00:15
Jewboy__A ( hello ) ID#188235:----------------
There has been a lot of offensive material, all quite unnecessary,
that has been posted on this site, and as a newcomer, I for one, would
appreciate your picking "ANOTHER" handle!!!
If you would like to joke about your handle, I'll be the first to
joke with you, as many here know. However anyone with even a vague
memory of relatives and friends that have lost their lives, as a result
of antisemitism, bigotry, or just plain hatred between humans, should
show a little respect.
Should you require any assistance to choose a handle, I'm at your
disposal, if not, that's the place to put the handle you have.

Now let's all get back to the subject of GOLD, please!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 04:42 - ID#39845)
Decency Hmmmmmmmm.
Moodswings in step with porkbellies.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 04:51 - ID#228283)
@Reify....Hedgehog is correct...lighten up.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 04:52 - ID#393224)
Just got back from Pizza Hut with the 14 y.o. daughter. I have been selling this generation short!! I was amazed at her understanding of the issues we discussed. These ranged from Weimar Germany wheelbarrow of 'money' for loaf of bread-----to 400 candy bars for oz of gold when I was a kid to 400 candy bars for oz of gold now----10 cents candy bar when I was a kid to a buck or two now------"...and dad, do you think we will have WW III in the next ten years?".......and "...why does the government print so much money?"...."Why don't the Indonesians just eat the food they grow and forget about the IMF and the rest of the world...?"etc. ----never mentioned Spice Girls or Aqua once!!! There is hope for us yet!!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 05:07 - ID#39845)
The week so far.
Soeharto sits on fart cushion and the IMF starts kissing air.
Storm clouds over Japan. Hovering for the past 4 months. Still
no sign of rain but thousands of lightning flashes.
Saddam spends last dime on US war ride.
Major nuclear disaster refused a berth.
Greenpeace lodges claims on Oil resources as Oil lets it hair down.
Gold, all my MAs just jumped into bed. There nice and warm and
having a hard earned rest.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 05:08 - ID#339265)
My theories on JEWBOY are as follows:
1 ) A self-hating Jew?
2 ) A Jew hater that "gets off" on the epithet?
3 ) A contemporary provocateur?
4 ) A government agent and/or Wall Street establishment member who wishes to portray goldbugs ( and this particular forum ) as anti-American, anti-Wall Street, anti-Jewish, and anti-minority?
5 ) ANOTHER's second personality overriding his first ( schizoid split ) .
6 ) Howard Stern in disguise?

Should such a handle be allowed?

I guess it's Bart's forum and he makes the decisions concerning access. Those people who don't like it will exit.

Thus Spake F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 05:12 - ID#401460)

An Astroid is on it's way towards a possible collision with Earth.

I saw this on the DRUGE Report last night now on NBC am news. Druge said that MSNBC reported that the Government has been tracking for some time, didn't want to alarm the public.

What if the Astriod is a solid Gold nugget? They are probably forward selling it now - derivatives and everything else.

I bet Clinton's people are trying to sell vacation beach front home sites on it to the Chinese right now.


(Thu Mar 12 1998 05:18 - ID#252127)

Medically; if a physician makes a correct diagnosis and then prescribes a proper treatment the patient is generally cured and the effect of the illness is not spread, that is, unless such illeness is termed to be contagious.

In economics when the nation is treated for a specific weakness, the effects of that weakness is almost always transmitted to a new location causing ever greater damage.

The floating currency virus 'Competivus Devaluasicati' the primary cause of global economic outbreaks can only be treated with auriferous and argentous based minerals.
Goodnite from Dr. Bug

(Thu Mar 12 1998 05:32 - ID#33164)
Morning ALL!
In the past hectic weeks [months?!], apart from glimpses as my email opened, I was able only this morning to scroll quickly through the postings from 00am NY time! Where are you Sharefin? JTF? SDRer? EB? Kevan? and Aurator for my early morn chuckle?

I've missed you all, and feel a little displaced [withdrawal symptoms? -
you warned me Nick@C!] without having the daily Kitco news.

POG much better than the last time I was on Kitco, and hope to see more action soon? Could someone please give me a short update on recent happenings?

John D- What is your view on deflation in RSA? Here? Coming? Not?

PS - What is this 'chicken standard' ?? ( :- ) ) ) I have a wonderful recipe for stuffed chicken breasts for those who'd like it.......

(Thu Mar 12 1998 05:55 - ID#256326)
my handle at the other place is twocents. email to if you are interested in the lucas or other matters. much of it goes via email rather than chat format.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 06:49 - ID#20748)
Controlled media
in action. Front page of NY Times carries a story on Clinton's visit to China being advanced from November to June, any connection to Jones is denied. Same front page also carries a bigger story on Paula Jones, trashing her. She is an illiterate with no taste and no friends. Husband is no better. They live in a one bed room apartment shared with their two children.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 06:50 - ID#222243)
Rhody - Avino Silver and Gold
Figures I have show: resource 50 million tons, grading 5 oz
per ton. 8.7 million oz AG proven. Production running about
900,000 oz annually with an equivalent value produced in
copper and gold. A good deal of potential in ongoing projects.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:01 - ID#341189)
Nick@C Discussions
Nice post. I love the child already. I suspect by the time she is in college, that too will be the same in gold as mine was - two ounces per semester.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:06 - ID#252391)
Rhody where does ASM trade
Where does ASM, FSR and CFB trade. I have heard you and others mention these stocks but they must trade other than on the AMerican exchanges.

On another point what do you think Warren B is going to say Saturday?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:08 - ID#286199)
EMU and Gold
Here is a long article on the EMU with references to "surplus U.S. dollar reserves" and gold reserves. My reading on the subject is that the EMU will be born on schedule, the dollar will suffer long-term despite reassurances coming from the ECI, and gold will be held in the reserves at 10% or better.

bullish quote..
...very unlikely that the central banks would want to sell gold during phase 2 of EMU, even for the purpose of generating revenue in order to satisfy the convergence criteria of the Maastricht Treaty more easily.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:12 - ID#26793)
Platinum news

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:13 - ID#252391)
Good morning America
Now, you all didn't do very well yeasterday. We were looking for two days up in a row and couldn't do it. We have silver up a whole cent for you this morning. Please, now nobody sneeze, you'd be likely to blow it down five cents.
Boy this stuff is feable - guess it's oil flirting with a tank under $14 and the Japanese's coming deflationary recession that get the blame. casue

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:17 - ID#26793)
Lower oil demand and prices causing civil unrest in Nigeria

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:22 - ID#26793)
Japanese Finance Ministry official found hanged

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:24 - ID#252391)
Good morning America
Now, you all didn't do very well yeasterday. We were looking for two days up in a row and couldn't do it. We have silver up a whole cent for you this morning. Please, now nobody sneeze, you'd be likely to blow it down five cents.
Boy this stuff is feable - guess it's oil flirting with a tank under $14 and the Japanese's coming deflationary recession that get the blame. casue

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:26 - ID#26793)
"Hashimoto's days are numbered; the knives are out for him"

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:29 - ID#26793)
Japanese economic condition getting more severe says MOF vice chair

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:34 - ID#26793)
Western powers behind plot to lower oil prices say Gulf Arabs

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:38 - ID#420116)
Al Gore Warns Cabinet: One of Them Will Be Held Responsible in 2000

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:41 - ID#26793)
Japanese worried about Chinese devaluation

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:44 - ID#330175)
James(1:30).....................April Gold down .30 @ 294.80
James: your loss,eh!....Bein in 'them' has enabled MOI to be a bum in Cape Breton and pretty soon Swans Island...How bout TRP?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:46 - ID#26793)
Mexico hopes "talks" with other oil producers will halt price slide

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:50 - ID#330175)
Diamonds in Canada

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:51 - ID#284255)
Still under 'War and Emergency Power 'act since March 1933?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:51 - ID#258427)
Ted...when you moving and
will you still have internet access?? er...go gold and silver ( up )

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:52 - ID#330175)
So bright I need shades
Mornin Donald!---first sunny start to a day in probably 2-3 weeks~~~~

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:52 - ID#26793)
Will oil be cheaper than water? Is the apocalypse near?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:52 - ID#284255)

Goldilocks and the three BEARS
(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:53 - ID#430219)
McDougal vs Greenspan
A provactive article which ( if I may summarize ) is saying that the powers that be on the left murdered James Mcdougal ( he was scheduled to talk with Ken Starr the exact next day after his death ) and now the right is responding with a warning of possibly some foul play happening to Alan Greenspan which would rock the investment and the economic world !!!

( I hate to say it but that would be bullish for gold ) .

An interesting read but I can't vouch for the sources, enjoy.

Go Gold !!!!!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:56 - ID#26793)
Oil supply nearing saturation point yet production continues to outstrip demand

Goldilocks and the three BEARS
(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:56 - ID#430219)
McDougal vs Greenspan http address

If the ftp:// doesn't work try this and select the first story.

Go Silver !!!!!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 07:59 - ID#26793)
Hi Ted. I am looking for a headline that says "Arabs in plot to block out sun" Must be here on the net somewhere.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 08:00 - ID#330175)
BillD-------------------55 days(but who's counting)
On May 6th my oil-rig friend ( Mo-Fo ) is picking me up in a U-Haul truck for the 'express-trip' to Swans Island ( if they let us through the! ) ...and yes I'll have internet access out on the island ( they actually have an ISP that works there!! ) ...Don't know how long I'll be offline ( depends on how OBSESSED I get on the 'house-job' ) but will probably be at least a few should be @ 5,000 and the Dow @ 178.9395 by god only knows how HIGH yer beloved SILVER will be by then...

(Thu Mar 12 1998 08:01 - ID#330175)
Donald and 'them Arabs'..............................and sunblock
They're doin a good job in Cape Breton~~~~~

(Thu Mar 12 1998 08:06 - ID#330175)
A failed attemp at GOLD mining in Cape Breton

(Thu Mar 12 1998 08:06 - ID#258427)
WARNING ~~~~To all Silver Shorts....the last time
that I drove to work and did not get stopped by a single stoplight ( there are 23 of them ) ... Silver went to $7.7?? ( sumthing ) ....WELL IT HAPPENED AGAIN TODAY ~~~~No red lights....

I can see it now...TED in a U-Haul at the border with the US customs going through everything...OK, Bud, Lay it all out on the table....~~~Whoa.....

(Thu Mar 12 1998 08:13 - ID#26793)
Gulf oil states facing budget cutbacks due to lower oil prices

(Thu Mar 12 1998 08:15 - ID#347457)
OK, fess-up, who did it?!
Which one of you shot that thing?! I am looking at daily charts and see no sign of life - like a flat line on heart monitor.
Must be a terrible time for you traders. Well maybe all of yu took off heading South to escape this cold weather in the US ;- )

(Thu Mar 12 1998 08:27 - ID#410194)
Gold and Silver news
Some reports out overnight suggest that the Russian Forex and Gold reserves increased by 600 million in March which is good for Russia but bad for the market if the bank decides to sell.

Also reported was the total of South Korean gold campaign which totalled 223 tons as of March 7th. This Korean collection is mostly factored in the market now but it is still providing uneeded supply to the market.

The big dealers continue to be negative towards Gold and are expecting further losses.

As for Silver, delivery notices were at 73 yesterday and Comex stocks rose half a million yesterday and it does become more and more obvious that the longs are now facing fierce adversity. Yesterday, Silver lost all but the 3 cents of the previous day rally which was done on average to low volume. If the market closes decisively below $6 a couple of times, selling could intensify.

As mentioned yesterday, the Silver collection in South Korea will start next Monday.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 08:28 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter - the other persective?
If you want to know why the market has kept going up and will continue to do so, you can start with the most basic principle of economics- supply and demand. The supply in this case is the amount of shares of stock available to the public to be purchased. Despite all the IPOs you hear about on a daily basis, the amount of shares available in US stock markets has only marginally increased over the past ten years. Why? Because while some companies have been selling shares, many others have been buying their own shares back ( or eliminating shares because of mergers ) . GM recently announced it was buying back 5 billion dollars worth of shares. That's 5 billion dollars that will now go chasing other shares of stock that are still available. That one buyback alone will more than offset all the Yahoo and Excite IPOs of this world. The demand side of the equation is a little more interesting. Many people like to compare this market to the one just before the 1929 crash, but they're overlooking one very important point. Back then, investors were only required to put down as little as 10% of the face value of the stock in order to buy it. I don't know what the exact figure was, but I do know that just before the crash an enormous amount of that market value was built on "paper" profits that investors just kept "pyramiding" back into the market. People truly were speculating with money they didn't have. That simply isn't the case today. The vast majority of stock now owned in this country was purchased with "real" money, not paper profits. I again don't know what the exact figures are, but I do know that the dollar value of outstanding shares that were bought on margin as a percentage of the whole market is not only low, but has actually DECREASED over the past few years. Who was it that panicked last October and sold during the Asian crisis? It was primarily hedge funds, who did have highly leveraged positions. Individual investors actually BOUGHT during the sell-off. This raises an interesting question- where exactly is all this "real" money coming from? The answer: the baby boom generation. The BB generation has just begun to enter the phase of their professional careers where their earnings are greatest. These earnings, combined with the fact that their children are now out on their own and their parents are covered by government programs, means these boomers have LARGE amounts of disposable income. In other words, they are not only in their peak earning years, they're also in their peak SPENDING and SAVINGS years. Their savings directly fuel the market by increasing demand and therefore the price of stocks, and their spending indirectly fuels the market by keeping the economy humming ( just look at the sales of RVs! ) . Anyone who doubts the effect the BB generation is having on the stock market should draw a line chart of the number of births per year in this country starting in 1940, and shift those numbers forward about 48 years. Thus, the number of people born in 1950 would appear on the chart above the year 1998. On top of this draw a line of what the S&P 500 has done over the last 50 years and guess what you find? That's right, they're absolutely identical. There are plenty of bumps along the way, but they both slowly inch their way upward and then begin to take off almost exponentially in lockstep. A picture of this chart appeared in TASC about a year ago ( maybe John can post it to the list for us... ) Of course, a cynic will say "this huge pool of savings may exist and continue to grow, but who says people will continue to buy US stocks with it?" My answer would simply be "where else are they going to put the money?" People could suddenly decide to buy a lot more bonds, but we all know there's a direct relationship between stock prices and bond yields. If bond yields get cut in half because of a massive influx of money, what do you think will happen to housing and auto sales? What will then happen to the stocks in the auto, housing, steel, rubber, lumber, plastic, glass, and copper industries. You get the picture. I guess a lot of people could suddenly decide to invest overseas, but I think the recent Asian meltdown has removed that temptation for the next ten years or so. This is why all the talk about the stock market being "overvalued" is, with all due respect, meaningless. Overvalued compared to what? The past? That kind of thinking doesn't take into account the massive growth in the pool of savings over the past 15 years. You're comparing apples to oranges. As long as large amounts of savings continue to be generated, people need to put the money somewhere. It doesn't matter if the average dividend falls to .001% ( that's still a better return what you get if you stick the money under a mattress ) , people are still going pump their savings into the stock market. Just out of curiosity, how many of you out there that think the market is overvalued are currently writing OEX call options long term? Not too many, I bet. By the way, in case you're wondering where the baby boomer / S&P chart says the stock market will end its hyper-up move and begin to fall... around the year 2007.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 08:29 - ID#330175)
FEB. Retail Sales.....(takin with a large grain of
up .5% ( just as expecTED ) ---yawn~~~~~

(Thu Mar 12 1998 08:31 - ID#26793)
Miners should prepare for a period of low metal prices

(Thu Mar 12 1998 08:34 - ID#222231)
ALL-I Lied, The cost of oil in oz/100bls or food for thoughts.

Reference: Golden-Eagle editorial by Abu Bekr al-Rashid.

I'm sorry, but these questions have plagued me for the past day. Especially since vronskys post re: identity of ANOTHER, and I had to ask your opinions and read your comments, no matter what. Please excuse me for going back on my word.

If you notice chart of gold cost per 100bls of oil from 1987 to 1997 as shown in the above location, the conservative oil producers have recieved roughly 4oz to 6oz of gold per each 100bls of oil.


CHART 1 - $US Price of Gold

"On the day our plan went into effect spot
gold was $472 per ounce. Exactly 10 years
later it is $325. Exemplary gentlemen, that
represents a compound annual price
reduction of 3.66%. Admirable. It allowed us
to accumulate substantial quantities of the
noble metal, which as you all well-know is
an important part of our cultural need and
long-term planning."

CHART 2 - $US Price of Crude Oil

"On the day our plan went into effect spot
crude oil was $19.02 per barrel. Exactly 10
years later it is $21.02. Exemplary
gentlemen, that represents a compound
annual price increase of ONLY 0.97%. LESS
than One Percent per annum. That is less
than half the world's population growth
rate. Admirable. It allowed you to
economically build your economies and
industries with cheap energy costs."

CHART 3 - Gold Cost of Crude Oil

"Through the mechanism of our plan the
oil-producing States have sold their
depleting asset to the rest of the world at
an ever-increasing gold price. On the day
our plan went into effect the Gold Cost of
Crude Oil was 4.04 ounces of gold/100
barrels. Exactly 10 years later it is 6.67
ounces of gold/100 barrels. Exemplary
gentlemen, this represents a 4.82%
compound annual gold-price increase of our
crude oil. In sharp contrast most world
commodities have NOT done nearly as well.
Well done gentlemen, well done!"

I think the key factor is when this imaginary? plan began, the conservative oil producers were getting 4.04oz gold/100bls of oil. This ratio of gold to oil was a critical point in 1987.

The current ratio is approximately 4.81oz gold/100bls of oil. $14.20/bl
times 100/$295.00/oz = 4.81.

June gold future price = $296.90/oz
June oil future price = $14.99/bl
Ratio = $14.99 times 100/$296.90/oz = 5.05oz gold/100bls of oil.

The future prices of June reflects the fact that the cost of oil in gold is better than the current price. This seems to be within the target of
4.04oz/100bl and 6.00oz/bl.

There are two scenarios that could affect this ratio. A drop of oil price below $12.00/bl and a gold price above $325/oz-ratio = 1200/325 = 3.69, or the oil price stabilizing at $15/bl and a gold price of $400/oz-ratio = 1500/400 = 3.75. All reasonable approximations.

Once the ratio of the cost of oil in number of ounces/100bls of oil goes
below the ratio of 4.00, could the proverbial s--! hit the fan?

Is it payback time for the oil producers? Could this be part of the reason for oil prices dropping. After you consider that gold prices have dropped more dramatically than oil in the past ten years.

Does anyone know who has been buying physical gold in a slow orderly manner in order not to push the price up? The CBs have been selling with someone buying in a controled range, or is it in part just bookkeeping entries?

Can anyone figure out the amount of gold sold by CBs in the last 10 years? How much future gold production is committed to the CBs or oil producers? The amount sold in forward sales probably was to oil producers and mining producers in combination. Future contracts between CBs and mining producers is probably part of the equation to the oil producers. Do not the mining producers have to sell this gold on the open market? Why not take the dollars in part instead of only gold and an agreement between gold producers and oil interests to purchase gold sold forward. This would cut out the middleman and the public. It would give future delivery to oil producers or physical gold in proportions as dictated by current market conditions. A so called gold sale by CBs may not in reality be a gold sale. This type of transaction would not deplete the CBs gold reserves in too fast of a manner while satisfying oil producers to some extent. By using these tools, the price of gold can be controlled in an orderly manner. Maybe the cost of production is crucial to these contracts being honored in the future. This maybe one of the reasons for the price of gold stabilizing at these current prices. Also, if the price of gold is allowed to drop farther, the price may attract to many buyers or curtail gold production which could be fatal to this imaginary? plan. So far it seems to be working.

The cash generated by oil sales could easily corner the gold market.
Purchasing in this way would make the price of gold too high, which would be self defeating. The oil producers could purchase gold in a slow methodical way with the help of CBs and mining producers in collussion, with a small portion of thier cash. Part of the rest of oil monies generated by oil sales may be a part of the deal of oil for gold. This money has to be invested somewhere. Can anyone calculate the amount of monies available thru oil sales that could be invested other than gold? Why not US stocks and bonds. This all together might explain the strength of the dollar, lower than normal interest rates, and the stock market mania. What does this all portend for the future price of gold? IMNSVHO?

Is this a pact with the devil and a policy against the best interests of the public, especially goldbugs?

Someting to think about and analyse more elaborately by the superior intellects on this forum. Comments and discussions welcome.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 08:37 - ID#330175) Thailand

(Thu Mar 12 1998 08:42 - ID#26793)
Indian exports no longer competitive after Asian devaluations

(Thu Mar 12 1998 08:44 - ID#328159)
Euro stocks fall as...
"...investor confidence suddenly drained away"
A phrase to send shivers through the bones of those of long memories!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 08:44 - ID#356379)
Donald's 7:22 post about the Japanese Finance Ministry official who was
found hanged brings up the obvious questions:

Was he in line to testify to the grand jury about Clinton? Has he been seen in the company of sweet Monica? Where was he on the day Vince Foster shot himself and then disposed of his own body at the Park? Has he ever lived in a trailer park in Arkansas? And...oh, yeah... Was he part of any CB gold sale conspiracy?

Back to the still... RR

(Thu Mar 12 1998 08:47 - ID#251268)
Talk about a narrow trading range?
whos going to blink first? longs or shorts?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 08:51 - ID#26793)
Russian platinum and palladium delivery news

(Thu Mar 12 1998 08:58 - ID#26793)
Foreign cars on Korean roads being vandalized (Throw gold at 'em

(Thu Mar 12 1998 09:02 - ID#7568)

The action in silver over the last few days has caused more psychological depreciation than price depreciation. On Monday night the Access market was swept down and a low price of 5.90 basis May was achieved. All the talk was that some big hedge funds were under severe pressure and were about to liquidate. This avalanche of silver ( 50 million ounces plus ) was supposed to drive prices easily to the 5.50 level and perhaps lower, putting an end to this bull market. Instead, the price gradually drifted upwards and the shorts that drove the market down were forced to cover at higher prices. During the rally on Tuesday the folks that I deal with reported a large amount of commercial selling. This selling was absorbed. Yesterday's decline was engineered by some of the bullion houses. The timing of the selling, begining before the Comex opened, seemed designed to get the price lower with the minimum of effort. This type of selling is solely for the purpose of shaking the tree, it is not long liquidation, but a short raid whose purpose once again is to attack the spec funds. The funds in theory, had raised their stop orders in the market and were thus seen as vulnerable. It is interesting to note that the price bottomed in the area where the call levels were placed. Perhaps this is fantasy of a long hoping for higher prices, but I am starting to feel as if the 'stops' in the market are actually there for the purpose of accumulation rather than for selling. If this thesis is true, we should drift higher today as the shorts are unable to make substantial progress. The next real rally could be a very strong one. If the commercial interests have done a good piece of their selling on Tuesday then on the next run to the upside the shorts will not have any natural backers.

Within the broad context of the fundamentals of supply and demand which will ultimately drive the market, what goes on short term is purely a game. It is no different than poker or chess and it is played in a similar manner.

John Disney__A
(Thu Mar 12 1998 09:05 - ID#24135)
Golden stuffed chicken
Colleen .. Where all have you been ??
I love recipes .. please give me ..

(Thu Mar 12 1998 09:07 - ID#57232)
Japan and Hashimoto
Donald: If the bureaucratic backlash has started, and the MOF and MITI et al bureaucrats depose Hashimoto, than all of his work will be in vain. If so, the Japanese implosion will continue. Looks like JP has inside information -- this is what we need -- much better than spirited discussion with few facts on either side of the argument.

farfel: I enjoyed reading your spirited posts about Japan yesterday. I don't think the 1990 Japanese bear market ( rather than an outright 'crash' ) was the doing of the US -- but it may have been due to the fact that the Japanese are more homogeneous and controllable then we are. The American economic system is more chaotic and varied, which is a handicap at times, and an asset at times. I prefer the American system of seeming chaos. Unfortunately, the more we rely on debt, the more we become 'synchronized' and at increasing risk for debt implosion ( sudden deflation ) . As sharefin has noted, the more in 'lock step' the markets are, the more at risk we are for a surprise -- either up or down.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 09:14 - ID#57232)
Silver News
D.A.: Thanks for your input -- the chess game analogy makes sense. Fortunately with your and RJ's input, as well as those of our our comex Hawks, we are well informed, and can wait out the antics of the markets. I am much more worried about the short to intermediate-term situation in gold, where major crises could push gold down to 280/oz once again. I have pulled out of some of my bullish gold position, and will await another bearish move before buying more gold and gold stocks.

Any opinions about the Japan situation? Or China? We could have another fire sale in gold, coming from Asia.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 09:14 - ID#7568)

As some here have noted, the price of gold has flatlined. Rumor has it that the central bank of Brazil is an active player short lots of straddles. The target for April gold as of this Friday is 295.00. If anything happens to break this range it will be probably be to the downside but no further than 290.00.

After the option expiration, I believe we will head on higher.

One of the side effects of this expiration has been been the utter destruction of the implied vols on gold options. We have taken this opportunity to complete our purchases of deep out of the money long term calls. It is remarkable that over a months time the price of these calls ( which I thought were cheap when we first began to buy them ) , can in some instances be almost 40% percent cheaper. In making some querries as to why this has occured, it seems that some of the mining interests are getting desparate. Because they are cash strapped and hemoraging money, they are willing to raise short term cash by writing calls at incredibly low prices. I am very glad we do not have any counter party risk with these entities, because they may very well not be around to payoff.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 09:20 - ID#57232)
Just saw your gold post
D.A.: Thank you!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 09:30 - ID#26793)
Chicken Standard
Adding to the posts last night on this subject. Boneless chicken breasts are regularly $2.99 per lb. in rural eastern Connecticut. They are frequently on sale at $1.99 giving an average price of $2.49

(Thu Mar 12 1998 09:33 - ID#261118)
Where's RJ?
Donald, when was the last time RJ posted? What does he think of silver's direction?

Bully Beef
(Thu Mar 12 1998 09:41 - ID#259282)
Gold price Mon. S.I. #8252
Good link from there. Don't know anything about the author but the idea of our money being used for derivatives and when the banks lose we pay their debts is interesting.Far more complicated .

(Thu Mar 12 1998 09:42 - ID#238295)
the action
Mooney: Your post last night discussing in great detail gold's much improved reaction to news was right on the money. If this continues, the next major move will almost certainly be UP. But more base building action likely in near future.

I will be VERY SURPRISED IF ANOTHER'S $320 forecast by the end of next week proves accurate. But once the gold bull gets underway, prices will ultimately go higher than most here think possible.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 09:47 - ID#286230)
Some hope for PMs on Horizon
Apparently there really is an asteroid about 30 years away heading towards Earth. Any speculation on the possible impact of a near hit or hit on the price of gold--from the point of view of the lasting store of value, or its enduring nature over time, or CB conspiracies; and, perhaps,---Is ANOTHER coming for a visit????

(Thu Mar 12 1998 09:54 - ID#344308)

grains going

(Thu Mar 12 1998 10:00 - ID#286262)
Chris Carolan's Spiral Calendar

JTF- I was recently impressed with your apparent knowledge of mathematics. I wonder what your opinion is of the Spiral Calendar research. They employ lunar cycles and Fibonacci numbers to predict major market turns. I recently opened the book ( reprinted 1995 ) after reading it a few months ago. I noticed that his forcast is for a major DOW low around July 27, 1998.This spiral originated in the "Silver Panic" of 1896. I would appreciate your opinion or any one else's as well. General time frame is also looking important from the astrologers' point of view.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 10:01 - ID#57232)
Chicken/gold ratio? And -- antioxidants
Donald: Good morning? I wonder, has the price of chicken in ounces of gold shown stability over the decades and centuries? With the concerns about saturated fats, and transhydrogenated fats causing heart disease, the Big Mac index may have had a fatal event. I guess if you are working on the PPI, you need to be on your toes!

All: I alluded to some hot medical news in the above! Remember the excitement about margarine as the solution to our fat cholesterol problems? It turns out that commercially processed fats tend to be trans-hydrogenated, such as margarine.

There was a study of approximately 8,000 female nurses over a period of years, and some of the fat - heart disease controversy was resolved. It turns out that a 15% diet of poly- and mono- unsaturated fats from fatty fish and plants reduces the risk of heart disease about 20-30% over the period of study, but even 2% trans-hydrogenated fats increased heart disease risk by 87%! That is staggering information, and justifies what many individuals have suspected all along -- that appropriate natural fats are much safer for you than artificially modified ones, such as margarine. One might even imagine lawsuits on this one -- this probably beats the statistical evidence for the hazards of smoking.

The above came out of the Harvard Heart watch journal -- I will try to find the actual reference to the study when I have time. I assume it was prospective.

Another hot topic -- Lycopenes in Tomatoes appear to be part of the reason why Italians have such a low risk of heart disease -- Lycopenes are unusually stable, potent antioxidants, and they are apparently lipid and water soluble. By the way, the antioxidant story is not a simple one, because the human body has many detoxifying metabolic pathways, all of which would benefit by additional nutritional support.

I hope everyone is enjoying their new chjicken price index, and are weaning themselves off the old one -- the Big Mac hamberger index!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 10:01 - ID#26793)
R.J. has posted within the past two weeks or sooner. I can't recall his position on silver.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 10:07 - ID#342282)
A.Goose re chickens
I checked major supermarket here, Morganton, N.C. and they have 3 brands. Tyson, Country Farms and their own. All $4.29/pd. These are skinless breasts chunks and strips. Hope this helps.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 10:09 - ID#26793)
We Kitcoites have made chicken salad out of my original posting on chicken. The original post commented on the Islamic silver dirham coin and made the point that an equivalent amount of silver today would buy the same weight chicken in London that could be purchased 1400 years ago during the time the dirham circulated freely and widely throughout the Islamic world.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 10:12 - ID#286230)
JTF: the study you are looking for is in a recent issue of JAMA --this week's or last week's.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 10:13 - ID#411259)
..... Lurking About .....

Badger -

I'm layering in silver trades. No telling where the bottom of this market is, but I worry about a run on 5.90 stops and a trip down to 5.80 or lower. Fund interest seems steady, but volume is very light. One or two good sized trades can break silver either way, with the advantage to the shorts.

Best you can do with a market like this is to buy less, but more often. I have been having moderate success just trading the 40 cent range, but this leaves me unsatisfied and cools my silver libido naught.

I like platinum, I think the gains will be had there rather than palladium, which is perched on the precipice of obsolescence. The Auto Industry doesn't like the Russian unpredictability. With palladium so high, platinum becomes the cheaper choice in auto catalysts. Since the Russian produce 60% of the worlds palladium, and only about 18% ( and falling ) of the worlds platinum. Retooling for platinum would leave the auto industry less subject to future uncertainties in supplies.

Gold is recovering from a prolonged illness and it will take some time before her cheeks are again rosy and there is a bounce in her step. I fear nothing lower than 280.

Back to the pits.


(Thu Mar 12 1998 10:14 - ID#342282)
Polarbear re Harmony Ref
It was I who was asking and I am much obliged for your post. Got some of the details and emailed for more. I have been experimenting in this area and hope I get some answers. Thanx again

(Thu Mar 12 1998 10:15 - ID#286262)
Trans fats

JTF-I agree with the trans fats thing. I think its more of the crap in a long line of toxic waste being recycled thru citizen's bodies instead of taken to the landfill. Margarine I avoid as much as possible. Its a non-food for one thing. Leave it out on the counter- what eats it- nothing. If the microbes and rats won't eat it, duh.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 10:15 - ID#206358)
Donald!Heard the news abt the step down of JAPAN BANK'S GOVENOR?!
Rumour or reality on these few days?!let's see!
happy trading!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 10:16 - ID#246224)
First , I want to make this absolutely clear that I am not now nor have I ever been ..
involved in a conspiracy to aim astroids at the earth in order to increase the price of gold or silver. Chickens on the other hand are 'fair game' in my book.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 10:16 - ID#298259)
The value of outstanding shares bought on margin as a percent of the whole market may have decreased over the past few years but the margin debt outstanding is growing at a faster rate than customer assets. I just read that according to the New York Stock Exchange, margin debt outstanding with member brokerage firms grew almost 30% last year...after rising 27% in 1996 and 25% in 1995. The rise in margin buying at discount brokerage firms is even more dramatic. At Charles Schwab, margin loans were said to surge 50% last year...well above the rate of customer assets.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 10:20 - ID#348286)
@JTF / ALL - Fats and Antioxidants
I have a bit of knowledge in this area.
The best fats to eat are as you say from certain fatty fish, and, certain oils: OLIVE / CANOLA / FLAXSEED ( LIN ) .
These contain a high proportion of omega-3 to omega-6 polyunsaturates.
Avoid all hydrogenated fats / corn oil / safflower oil etc.
There is an excellent book out on the topic if anyone is interested.
Avoid: Big Mac and Fries - contains about 50 grams of Fat - mostly the bad kind.
Antioxidants: IMHO Everyone should be taking vitamin E, from all that I have read it is a supervitamin. Best combination Vitamin E / Beta-carratin / Vit C / Selenium - a very powerfull combination of antioxidants.

Im not a doctor but use all of this myself. Incidentally most doctors don't
have a clue about many of these topics....

(Thu Mar 12 1998 10:23 - ID#206358)

Thursday March 12 7:13 AM EST

Report: Clinton's China Visit Moved Up to June

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - President Clinton will visit Beijing in late June, rather than November, the
New York Times reported Thursday, quoting senior administration officials.

"Chinese officials, who are anxious to showcase the first visit of an American president to China since
the massacre of unarmed civilians near Tiananmen Square in 1989, leapt at the administration's
proposal for an earlier meeting," the newspaper said in a report from Washington.

The trip is set for the last week in June and the first week in July. One official told the Times that the
White House was "eager to build on progress made during the visit by Chinese President Jiang Zemin
to the United States last October."

However, the newspaper quoted another official as saying "that the president's advisers were
concerned that relations with China had deteriorated recently," citing disagreements in the U.N.
Security Council over policy on Iraq.

The idea to move the trip forward came from the American ambassador to Beijing, James Sasser.
But Clinton had trips scheduled for April and May, the newspaper reported.

If matters go as scheduled, the visit to Beijing could follow the Paula Jones sexual misconduct trial
against the president, due to start in Little Rock, Ark., on May 27.

The Jones trial had nothing to do with rescheduling the China trip, the officials told the Times. "But
planners have left Clinton enough time in June to go to Little Rock if he chooses to."

There may be more tension for Clinton to clear up with the Chinese leadership, other administration
officials told the newspaper, in connection with the meeting of the U.N. Human Rights Commission in
Geneva next week."

Committees in both the House and the Senate approved nonbinding resolutions Wednesday, urging
the administration to denounce China's human rights abuses in Geneva," the Times reported.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 10:24 - ID#258427)
Dow down 50+, spot Gold down, Spot silver on precipice, Monica gold and silver....

(Thu Mar 12 1998 10:27 - ID#251268)
fat,if you realy
got a hankerin for some gooodd fat try a fresh advocado

(Thu Mar 12 1998 10:27 - ID#298259)
Royal Oak Announces Cost Overrun on Kemess Project

(Thu Mar 12 1998 10:35 - ID#251268)
what about copper?
I got it up over 2 bucks and breaking major resistance?
are my quotes right?if so why are they loading up?maybe
more mine closures,h'm lookin at more gold calls
aug 330=150
oct 350=100
dec 360=110 set it up oip

(Thu Mar 12 1998 10:35 - ID#57232)
Asteroids -- a 2038 close approach!
Allen ( USA ) : I too saw the Matt Drudge fictional account about an asteroid collision with the earth. Apparently there is truth behind the fiction. Just saw an article in the morning paper. Apparently asteroid xxx ( number given ) is to 'fly by' in 2038. The distance of closest approach is a topic of hot discussion -- might be much too close for comfort.

By the way, I'm not to sure how important gold hoarding would be if we were to have a close encounter with an asteroid. I think I'd rather spend my time helping NASA or ? build rockets that could be used to deflect the asteroid. I also would be very happy to get rid of some weapons grade plutonium in a constructive manner the more megatons the better!

Good argument in favor of setting up a moon base too!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 10:46 - ID#342376)
A good rule of thumb is that any fat would be solid at core body temperature of 98.6 would become solid in you as well, not good. That's why both butter and margerine are both bad as well as fat from meat. Fish fats on the other hand are great as they have lots of Omega 3's. Omega 3's help to lower both cholesterol and triglycerides. Flaxseed oil that was mentioned is my favorite. There is another form of Vitamin E that has been found in rice bran oil that is much more powerful as an antioxidant than Vitamin E. It also helps to reduce cholesterol safely. It's name is toco-trienol and is beggining to be found in health food stores. Sorry for off-topic but I happen to be in Alternative Medicine, I'm an Acupuncturist and thought I could contribute to the discussion.

John Disney__A
(Thu Mar 12 1998 11:09 - ID#24135)
CHICKEN BONDS !! There's no end to the possibilities.
To All ..
Lets take another look at those chickens.. Ive been
quoting Kilo prices while others talk POUND prices.
Hold everything .. I buy fresh farmer brown chickens
for about 11.5 Rand/Kilo = 11.5/ ( 5*2.2 ) = $ 1.05 per
pound !!!!!
This says that on a chicken basis the rand is
UNDERVALUED by a lot .. The play should be RSA BONDS
yielding about 13.5 %.--- backed by gold in the
ground and chickens on the farm.

John Disney__A
(Thu Mar 12 1998 11:11 - ID#24135)
By products
for Crazytimes ..

Don't forget CHICKENFAT !!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 11:13 - ID#284235)
(Chicken Standard)
Donald & chas: Agree with Donald. On Tues I bought 3# skinless/boneless breasts at $2.99/# and today they are on sale at-you guessed it- $1.99/#.
Go figure.

John Disney__A
(Thu Mar 12 1998 11:16 - ID#24135)
Keep yo eye on de ratio

To all
We are once again flirting with a break
through 48.5 on the gold/silver ratio. Maybe
something dramatic will happen .. like silver
to 5.75 or even gold UP. ???
The lease ratio by the way fell in a small heap.

PH in LA
(Thu Mar 12 1998 11:17 - ID#225408)
Verify part of D. Birch's "Sting", anyone?

"The third thing I learned was that the BIS had two ironclad
objectives. Both were so bold that they would take your breath

1 ) To destroy the Soviet Union, as a threat to world peace.
2 ) To destroy the dollar as the worlds reserve currency.

We all know that the Soviet Union collapsed in 1989. This was done
by the BIS without firing a shot. They simply loaned large sums of
money to the Soviets, and then called the loans. Just a routine
castration! A simple foreclosure. This is how they got the Russian

I have read here ( at Kitco ) numerous times that the Russian government holds one of the largest gold reserves in the world. Is this true? And/or is it true what I have copied above? Does the BIS now control Russia's gold? It has been noted here that Russia has been in the gold market buying gold big time lately. Is that to replace the gold supposedly forfeited to the BIS? Did the loss of gold reserves to the BIS affect the outcome of the cold war? Is the assertion quoted above accurate? If not, we can conclude that the rest of the epistle is probably fiction also. If it can be verified...

John Disney__A
(Thu Mar 12 1998 11:18 - ID#24135)
Imported chickens
for Fummer ..

Check that cheapo chicken for a Springbok
emblem ...

(Thu Mar 12 1998 11:20 - ID#93130)
Call Quotes
D.A. Are you aware of any place on the WEB where I can get a matrix of quotes on gold calls at various strike prices over various time periods - and/or the symbols for the various strike prices? I have a difficult time getting this information from a broker.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 11:27 - ID#210235)
Here you go.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 11:27 - ID#57232)
Selby: Thanks for the hint. I do want to see the original reference. Will try PubMed as a starter.

Do you know anything about the Lycopene story? Apparently Lycopenes are Vit A analogues, and may be the active ingredient in Vit A rich foods. This may explain why high Vit A levels are associated with low cancer risk for certain cancers, but that purified Vit A or beta carotene supplementation is ineffective.

We may not be making money in gold, but it does look like we will be living longer!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 11:42 - ID#57232)
How are you, good guy -- from a foreign country!
Jin: Do I have the translation done correctly? I had some help.

Hope all is well. Does seem likely the the Japanese CB director might resign. What do you think about Japan? Are they fixing their problems, or are they unsuccessful! We at Kitco are worried about more gold sales from SEAsia, like what happened near October 1997. Best wishes to you.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 11:44 - ID#206358)
3/12/98 -- 11:22 AM

Japanese official commits suicide, central
bank head offers to

TOKYO ( AP ) - A top Finance Ministry official hanged himself today,
becoming the fourth high-ranking Japanese bureaucrat to commit
suicide in a widening scandal over corruption in high places.

Yoshio Sugiyama, 46, a deputy chief in the ministry's powerful banking
bureau, killed himself in his Tokyo apartment, said Naoto Fujii, a
spokesman for the Tokyo Metropolitan Police.

National broadcaster NHK reported that Sugiyama had once worked
with two ministry officials who were arrested in January on suspicion of
accepting $37,500 worth of entertainment from banks in exchange for
tips about ``surprise'' inspections.

Prosecutors questioned Sugiyama in February, but didn't view him as a
prime suspect.

His death is the latest shock in a damaging scandal centering on the
chronic collusion between bureaucrats and the businesses they regulate.
The investigation has touched several aspects of government, including
the previously untainted Japanese central bank.

Faith in the ``bank of banks,'' as the Bank of Japan is known among
Japanese, was severely shaken by Wednesday's arrest of Yasuyuki
Yoshizawa, 42, chief of the bank's capital markets division.

TV news footage of an army of prosecutors marching into the Bank of
Japan, then carrying out cardboard boxes full of documents, stunned
even seasoned Japan observers.

``There has been a serious blow to Japanese credibility,'' said Ken
Okamura, a strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson in Tokyo. ``It
certainly shows that the scandal has spread much further than originally

The head of the Bank of Japan offered to resign to take responsibility
for the events leading to the arrest of Yoshizawa, who was suspected of
accepting lavish entertainment in return for leaking sensitive information
to two private banks.

Bank of Japan chief Yasuo Matsushita is not directly implicated in the
scandal, but it is common in Japan for the heads of institutions to resign
in an apologetic gesture.

``I take his intention very seriously, although I told him that for now, I
want him to do his best to fulfill his duties in his post,'' Prime Minister
Ryutaro Hashimoto told reporters, referring to the bank chief's
resignation offer.

With the scandal now marring the central bank's formerly spotless
reputation, fears are growing over whether it will further hobble Japan's
stagnant economy and possibly hinder ambitious plans to ease financial

The three other officials who had killed themselves were all facing
questioning over alleged acceptance of bribes.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 11:50 - ID#252150)
Hi Ted@Conservative Stocks
It's a good thing that you have them because it does'nt look like we're going to get rich with ABX any time soon. I'm lucky I've got my Air Force pension & the wife has a good job. One thing about my style of investing
is that it's always exciting. My RSP was up 120% in 1996 & down 40% last year. I've got a big bet on a recent IPO, Garneau, which coats pipes for the oil & gas industry. Also some small oil & gas E/Ps with the emphasis on gas. I'm buying them on the way down, so if we ever recover, I'll be looking good.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 11:50 - ID#258427)
While we all talk/read about fat....
meanwhile ( back at the frm ) ...SILVER has regained its lots ground and gettingb ready to shoot to the astroid...

Just went up .01 and on the way to "oudder-space"...

(Thu Mar 12 1998 11:52 - ID#258427)
My finger-spelling is terrible...
will not even attempt to correcbt et...

(Thu Mar 12 1998 11:55 - ID#269191)
Dropping lease rates.
Maybe the short sellers have shot their bolt. Gold dropped in response
to the higher lease rates which were in part caused by increased
short selling. This was evidenced by an increase in short position
at the Comex. Now that the lease rates are falling off especially
at the short end of the curve, just maybe the selling is behind us
and if the dollar weakens, we could hopefully get higher prices.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 11:55 - ID#330175) 'safety nets' here--------------and thus the conservative--------
investing~~~~~~~~~~P.S. Also like Telus!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 11:56 - ID#330175)
'March MADness'
Go 'Tigers'~~~~~~~~~~and ABX

(Thu Mar 12 1998 11:58 - ID#57232)
Thank you
Jin -- I agree. It is wrong to take ones life for almost any reason, and certainly because of humiliation. That is the coward's way out, and you can't fix any wrongs you have done if you are dead. And, why punish your family?

If you know any of Japanese that can post to us, please let him or her know. We need more info on what is happening in Japan. I would be glad to start the ball rolling for the sake of Kitco, if you give me an e-mail address.

Best wishes, and please make sure to duck! Looks like trouble ahead for you -- trouble for us may take a year, or longer to come -- unless a key Japanese bank collapses and brings down the world financial system.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 11:59 - ID#197289)
Avino Silver and Gold(ASM on VSE)
For those inquiring about Avino it is interesting to note that the principals of this company have been selling their stock. While it may be that everyone needs cash now and then, taking it from the market as opposed to other sources does not, in my mind, bode well for the near term future of a company. I am not bashing the prospects for Avino but if the directors are selling their shares the shareholders and potential sharholders deserve an explanation from the company. IMHO.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:03 - ID#411149)
MoReGoLd- I also am takin all those good oils and vitamins.
Plus ProFibe developed by University of Florida and Dr. Cerda
natural cholesteral reducer and glucosamine sulfate for
problems with arthritis. These are necessary so we can enjoy
all the benefits of this commin GOLD BULL!

Tally Ho

(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:08 - ID#251268)
got to agree with you on taking of life,but I wonder in
Japan if ( their culture thinks ) they percieve it as the honorable
thing to do,thus actualy saving family from dishonor?
Wouldn't be talking about this if gold was moving more than
.01 percent Hey whats up with copper?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:14 - ID#225273)
oldgoldpanner: ASM on VSE
This is the normal MO of the directors of this company. The Lou Wolfin Group runs a stable of companies, none of them ever accomplishing much with the exception of ASM, which is in production.
They run the stocks up and down and make a living at it, a very good living.
ASM is in the middle of a financing right now, so some directors may be selling shares to buy cheaper shares in the PP. Still, I doubt many will make money on ASM, even if the price rises. Management will see to that.

The Preacher

(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:16 - ID#408147)
Sheesh! Palladium is lookin like it is going to be passing Au in a few weeks if the current trend keeps going. That would certainly be a head-turner if it actually happens.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:23 - ID#246224)
Dishonor is a cultural crime in Japan. To dishonor one's family or nation is to be guilty of an offence which is like murdering their reputation. It is a capital crime, at least in the eyes of the old school. So suicide is considered the only 'considerate' and possibly even cleansing action one can take. In effect they are trying to expunge guilt from their families. If they went to trial and were found guilty, then locked away in prison for 20 or 30 years they would impose great burdens on their families to support them in prison and be demoted to the lowest station in society.

To get a flavor of this consider that 100 years ago people in the west considered some behaviors genetic. If your father was prone to violence or theft then people would not hire you for fear of your own tendences in that way. The expression 'The apple does not fall far from the tree' was simply considered fact. Much social stratification was based on this idea of bred inferiority/superiority ( which was ultimately expressed in Arianism in Nazi German and its equilvalent in Japan ) . The Japanese culture would still lump the entire family of the offender as criminals as well.

All that said, it is still a total transgression of life to murder others or to murder one's self. There are many reasons for it, all of them very extreme in whatever culture it is found.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:27 - ID#153102)
@Thanks Again To All for Your Posts
IMHO, based in part on the news that mines are writing call options to raise cash, if gold does not rise to $320 within a month or two, it would be reasonable to conclude that either the CB have lost control of the gold market they have been managing or that the CB have been deceiving and actually intended all along to bankrupt the gold mining industry and stiff the Arabs.

I wonder if coverage of "the progress of the 'solid gold' asteroid" story will replace Y2K coverage or the stock market report on the nightly news.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:28 - ID#238422)
PH in LA/your 11:27
In order to believe or not to believe what is true
and what is not, when talking about Russia ( USSR, etc. )
one must understand the country - Russia, its mentality
and its traditions. Based on my knowledge and life
experience, role of BIS in collapse of USSR and influence
of BIS in the modern Russia is pretty close to ZERO.
This is the same kind of fantasy as the fanstasy created
in the West about the role of my favorite President
of the USA, Mr. Ronald Reagan, in collapse
of the Soviet Union.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:30 - ID#28594)
For those of us interested in Mozels two-greenback currency system,
consider the Foreign Sales Corporation , or FSC ( pronounced fisc ) . It appears a very serviceable vehicle.

Firms that export from America qualify for income-tax relief if they book their exports through a FSC. Thousand of companies have therefore created one...

...They also suspect ( European officials ) that, because firms do not actually need to have foreign income to set up a FSC, many of them are used to park profits made at other subsidiaries. Everyone knows its a nudge, wink thing, says one tax lawyer.

In the late 1980s there were a few hundred. By 1993 there were 3,000, mostly registered in Barbados and the American Virgin Islands, with export receipts of $150bn and tax-exempt income of $4.1bn. The number has since doubled, and the income may have tripled

A basket currency[SDR? Business$?] relieves a trans-national of much hedging trauma. It creates a small islet of apparent stability. It also allows purchases made in US from offshore, to be transacted at very favorable exchanges. A stock buy-back for instance... It becomes rather like the Silicon Valley firms ( Oracle most recent ) who, when their stock price plunges, simply exchange existing employee stock options for new ones with a lower exercise price. The New Paradigm Sayeth, Everyone Always Wins....

(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:31 - ID#26793)
So. Korea says China is a threat to their exports

(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:32 - ID#410198)
Let us pray:Lord..I have been so good today,I haven't raised
my voice to anyone.I haven't called anyone rude names.I haven't yelled
and screamed or ranted and raved at anyone. I haven't even broken anything or hurt anybody. But Lord,I'm getting out of bed in about five minutes and I will probably need your help then.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:34 - ID#210235)
For your 02:06, thank you. Today the Japanese bankers squeeze their businesses just as American bankers did to their own in the early 1930's. A most interesting parallel, as well as the fall in interest rates and increase in money supply. Even the businessmen and bankers committing suicide.

To your knowledge, is there also a drain on liquidity from their citizens pulling cash out of the bank, and holding it? Fear of banking collapse? This is a highly leveraged act, as their banks lend out at something like 50 to 1, compared to the US circa 1930 at 10:1. Liquidity crunch time.

Each time someone turns their money into hard assets, also, this liquidity drain occurs. I have been wondering if that is behind the CB's badmouthing of the metals recently, especially as their sales of the metal seem to have dried up.


(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:37 - ID#26793)
@Allen(USA) Speaking of Japanese culture this reminded me of US action on Nisei in WW2

(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:38 - ID#210235)
@PH in LA
Re BIS, ( thanks Oris, too, for that insight on USSR ) , don't you find it a little hard to believe that the various chairmen of the Fed could be in collusion with these other bankers to destroy the position of the US currency? Or that the others ( over so many years ) could somehow carry on this plan without alerting the Fed Chairmen?

It's a strain on the brain, but then people will believe ANYTHING rather than to accept the chaos and flux that is just beyond our reckoning - too painful.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:41 - ID#210235)
Good morning, Donald
You really got us going with that chicken story. It's taken our minds off this enormous, but very long, game of Anaconda that's playing out on the world markets.

Now I'll really BBL

(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:42 - ID#26793)
About a month ago I posted a story about soaring sales of safes in Japan. They are pulling money out of banks and keeping it a home. I just looked in order to repost but can't find it now.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:44 - ID#345176)
Meridian Gold (MDG) ... taking a beating today, down 3/8, -12% to $2 3/4. Any ideas why?

Lurker 777
(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:46 - ID#317247)

(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:48 - ID#153102)
Great post. These FSC are like the change allowing gold coins in IRA in this way: they give a income tax benefit for a concealed purpose. In this case companies volunteer their exports into a monitoring scheme and perhaps also are, as you say, made ready for imposition of the "domestic" and "non-domestic" greenback plan.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:48 - ID#26793)
S&P says; "Most of the companies in Indonesia are technically bankrupt"

(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:49 - ID#330175)
Allthe way from OKC!!!---My FIRST PHONE ( versus cyber ) CONTACT with a KITCOITE!!!!Thankx BRO!!!--Too bad ya ain't here ta fire-up the peace-pipe and talk GOLDen thoughts.....What a PLEASANT surprise ( and here I thought it was the cops calling ) ....go GOLD ( up for a damn change! )

(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:51 - ID#330175)
All the way from OKC!!!---My FIRST PHONE ( versus cyber ) CONTACT with a KITCOITE!!!!Thankx BRO!!!--Too bad ya ain't here ta fire-up the peace-pipe and talk GOLDen thoughts.....What a PLEASANT surprise ( and here I thought it was the cops calling ) ....go GOLD ( up for a damn change! )

(Thu Mar 12 1998 12:53 - ID#26793)
@Jin: BOJ Governor has resigned. Will stay on job until end of March.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 13:02 - ID#285392)
D.A. Thanks for your 09:14 post on gold & silver as well as your other posts.
I have followed your information for over a year now and it is very accurate. Recently you had mentioned that you had bought Dec99 $380 gold calls for from $370 to 490. Is this still a reasonable price range? I am planning a purchase soon and would appreciate your guidance.


(Thu Mar 12 1998 13:08 - ID#57232)
Dishonor, Carolan Spiral Calendar
jman: You are right, there is a cultural difference -- save the familiy from dishonor. My problem is that a live person can do alot more to correct a dishonor than a dead one.

Spanky: Had a long post for you and Astroinvesting, but crashed my 486XT.

Need to upgrade. Anyway, I have not seen Carolan's newsletter. In a brief post, I am convinced that the lunar 18.7 ( ? ) year cycle affects the markets, and the weather. Did a Bay of Fundy tidal activity study for the last 100 years. The problem is that Lunar tidal activity maxima and minima give you market turning points, but not their direction. Also, El Ninos tend to occur about 1 year after a tidal activity minimum. An index case was the 1929 situation, which was an unusually long term tidal activity minimum. The droughts in the US were correlated with severl severe subsequent El Ninos. March was a Lunar tidal activity maximum, so either the markets are probably going to take off, or peak, long term. So this time the situation is quite different from the 1929 era situation. I can't give a probability for the turning point predicted in March. Right now I am unwilling to make other predictions from the tidal data -- such as other turning points in the next few months. Will try higher resolution tidal/market comparisons if I have time.

By the way, this data should also work with precious metals investing -- it is just that the turning point directions and probabilities will be different.

Beyond that, I cannot make sense out of Astroinvesting, despite the fact that there is clearly something substantial that Mike Sheller can see better than I. What I need is a market turning point indicator that triggers on a market down or up equally well. Then it is a simple matter of correlating historical turning points with planetary positions. Tried absolute value of first derivative, but that did not help. With a good 'turning point' indicator, I could decipher or improve the Bradley index. With regard to Fibonacci series and the planets, I do know that the orbital periods of the planets are 'quantized', with the exeption of one planet - Pluto, I think. My guess is that there is a regularity in their positions as well, but I have not discerned what it is.

Hope the ramblings of a physicist helps.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 13:08 - ID#246224)
BOJ, corruption and the END in Japan
Some months ago I posted a listing of stages through which manias progress, which David Christenson published back in 1995 and again in 1997. The last stage of a mania is filled with corruption and the revelations of the same which propel everyone into dumping confidence in the system.

Japan's prolonged disaster has been a well managed affair. This all could have come out back in 1991-3 but it did not. It did not because people still wanted to BELIEVE their leadership. The leadership played this need to BELIEVE to the Nth degree. Well, now their goose is cooked ( sorry A.Goose but it has come even to that ) !!! The public has been fed one corruption story after another until it seems there is no place of honor and dignity left in the entire nation. The people are withdrawing their support from their own nation by not spending any money other than on necessities. This death spiral is being amplified by Japan's inability to compete with its devalued neighbors ( since its Yen has not dropped to a level somewhere between 50% to 100% as the others have done in relationship to the dollar ) . They can't export to their Asian buyers ( 40% of their exports go to these countries ) .

The only thing that will save Japan now is ... nothing.

If they devalue it would have a worse effect than China on the other Asian nations. And all the FOREX derivatives tying the US$ and the Japanese Yen would be toasted. Think about this. Why is it that China and Japan are insisting that they will not let their currencies collapse in relationship to the US$ ??? Consider what happened when Korea ( a relatively small economy ) tanked and how much disaster that caused for international banking concerns. Multiply this by a factor of 25 or more.

These two nations are all that stands between the world economy and total disaster. Japan has said "We will not be the scapegoat for a world-wide depression; it will not START here". China has said, "We will not devalue, ever." Yet China and Japan are in very similar situations: both are losing tremendous export business ( the life's blood of their export centered economies ) because they can't compete any longer with what remains of the Asian nations. Both China and Japan are burdened with corrupt, incompetent, insolvant banking systems. Other than their US$ bonds they have nothing left which is not already steadily sinking into the sea.

The Federal Reserve has said recently, with a cheery tone, that they will be buying back US Bonds ( whisper it here, "monetarizing the debt" ) . This is the last act in this horror show. It will not work because this problem is not about having a few extra US$ to throw at debt or to capitalize a few worthy projects. The problem is that this rotten world financial system is unravelling and people are pulling back into a survivalist mode, which is a social problem. No one expects the future to be brighter, only dimmer.

US$ 100 TRILLION in derivatives, mcuh of it tied to international FOREX and trade are rushing toward the edge of oblivion. There is no possibility that this system can be saved by means of its own mechanisms. It has been destined to fail because it was built on a foundation of sand. That sand was the floating rate currency exchange system and government manipulation of same which was initiated in the early 1970's.

Sorry for being such a downer on this. The ONLY things which will retain value will be tangibles which are precious and indestructable. The commodities are collapsing ( just ask Cherokee ) because there is a growing realization around the world that tomorrow will NOT be a brighter day and so people are turning to a mind set of 'subsistance' economy; conserve, save, reduce, reuse, go without, plant a garden, etc.

If you doubt this go to JIN's posts and look at his change of lifestyle. He only eats what he must and no more; no vacations, no nice things, no 'desposable' income. Flatline. Now multiply this by 2,500,000,000 people. They are the world economy and they are not happy.

The bigest problem for the USA is derivatives. The Europeans are already toasted in this respect. They have just not let on to their losses. But considering that USB/UBS merger, Duetch MOrgan Grenfeld and others with anouncements of 'possible mergers', then JP Morgan saying it might be looking for a parent corporation and it does not take a swift or visionary imagination to see what this implies. We are just now entering the fallout period from the FIRST Asian calamity. The SECOND and THIRD ones are yet to play out. Their fallout is yet to grace our present view.


(Thu Mar 12 1998 13:09 - ID#153102)
@all Are those three carriers still deployed in the PG ?

PH in LA
(Thu Mar 12 1998 13:16 - ID#225408)
Collusion at very high levels?
Prometheus: Thanks for your reply @ 12:28

"don't you find it a little hard to believe that the various chairmen of the Fed could be in collusion with these other bankers to destroy the position of the US currency? Or that the others ( over so many years ) could somehow carry on this plan without alerting the Fed Chairmen?"

Point well taken ( I guess ) but you are no doubt aware that it has been reported here more than once that Alan Greenspan is a member of the board of directors of the BIS.

Isn't it fair to say that the motives of Greenspan are not well-understood by anyone? At one time he was an advocate of a return to the gold standard. Did he change his mind? Is he now in favor of a single world-wide currency? Can any of us pretend to know?

This is not a conspiracy post...rather a question about motives.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 13:21 - ID#251268)
copper!! ?
I gotit up 3 bucks now,if thats right it is major even though
its not a pm it is stacked to the ceilings and somebody thinks
its a good deal so golds turn is next,

(Thu Mar 12 1998 13:22 - ID#188235)
to farfel

Schmuck du kanst kuss mich am tuchas

(Thu Mar 12 1998 13:23 - ID#258427)
JMAN...and that $3.00 move in copper is more than
3%...the same as a 10-12 dollar move in gold or .20 in silver ... !~~~~

AllenUSA...great post...

(Thu Mar 12 1998 13:25 - ID#410198)
Mozel & Co.. I have two books you may have an interest in, one by a dead white guy
the other ( forgive me ) the Sierra Club, THE TRAP by Sir James Goldsmith,and The case against the Global Economy by Edward Goldsmith

(Thu Mar 12 1998 13:29 - ID#411149)
Ted- I have talked to many on this forum via land line. There
are some real quality folks here! Gime a holler some time

The sun is out today but it is to cold to do anything but talk and type!

Tally Ho

(Thu Mar 12 1998 13:32 - ID#318118)
@ John Disney-HARMONY
John- Have you heard anymore about the possibility of Durban Deep or Randfontein making a hostile bid for Harmony. I sure like what I see of the Harmony management team moves. I like the company better everyday!
You are a resident of SA, are you not. Later; must deal with our Infernal Revenue Service now. I have a permanent I.V. so they can drain my blood at will.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 13:36 - ID#28594)
PH in LA, Promethus, This is not a conspiracy post...rather a question about motives.

One doubts that there has been ANY Fed Chairman, in the last score of years, who was unaware of the worlds dollar displeasure. Nixon was compelled to remove the dollars link to gold because DeGaulle --for one-- declined to allow French bank vaults to be stuffed to the rafters with dollars; every Bundesbank chairman has lamented USG profligacy ; the US emblem has been not the eagle, but Fly now, pay later....this is later. IMHO

(Thu Mar 12 1998 13:39 - ID#153102)
That last post of yours was extemely cogent and I agree with every word of it. But, I'd like to amplify, if I may.

Fundamentally, the floating currency system and CB fiat paper banking system has terror as its foundation just as do the legal tender statutes enacted in every participating country.

So practiced and inured to the use of terror are the federal establishment that they are blind to what you see so clearly. They are focused completely on the use of force to achieve their ends. For my evidence of this statement, I offer the announced move up to June of Clinton's trip to China to discuss Iraq. Saudi Arabia produces one quarter of OPEC output. It is clear to me anyway that the purpose of US policy toward Iraq is to get Iraqi oil production flowing to cancel out the Saudi bargaining chip and possibly to complete what may have been a planned cheat on gold delivery. Having double crossed Saddam Husssein, they cannot trust him and must replace him before opening the Iraqi oil spigot. The whole focus of effort is to get a green light to attack Iraq. I daresay there will be a military coup attempt on Suharto in the near future. The NWO New Paradigm is a regime of terror with a patina of talk of benefits.

Everywhere you look the USG is acting contrary to the interests of the people of the American nation, but, as it has no legal obligation to serve them or to serve the interests of the Free and Independent States of America, there is no reason for it to do otherwise.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 13:41 - ID#345176)
XAU in positive territory!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 13:42 - ID#256326)
I have found Carolan's spirals quite helpful, along with several other number series. It is easy to program them all ( both forward and backward ) into a speadsheet for personal research. Frank Taucher's almanacks have some interesting ideas on many series as does the book "Sacred Geometry" in the Thames/Hudson series. There are also several programs available such as Dynamic Trader and Nature's Pulse ( sounds like a Bulgarian breakfast cereal ) which will do this all with the flick of a mouse. The guiding priniciple is to look for clusters of hits by different series and methods around the same time window.

Ray Merriman has also done statistical research on astro hits at market turns, published ten years ago as "The Gold Book" ( MMA PUblications ) and still in print. One can also access these in a program of Merriman's called F.A.R.

"Bradley-esque" studies are quite easy on the computer. Simple summation of planetary longitudinal vectors seems more fruitful than Bradley's rating system. There is no Sheller style interpretation in any of this. Just the facts, ma'am, no poetry please. ( Apologies to Mike! )

This is just simple number stuff, like crossword puzzles or games, but harmless fun and sometimes quite helpful.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 13:44 - ID#197289)
Preacher (ASM on VSE)
Thanks for your comment. It is hard to make money when the insiders are trading against their shareholders. I bought this at 1.80 and sold at 2.20 - okay, but not when the risk factor is calculated in. I figure the insider trading cost me 10k in potential profit on ASM.
Would you have a comment about FSR and CFB? I would like to be in a good silver prospect and am looking at these companies. FSR has had selling by a director but the company looks to have good management an prospects. TIA

(Thu Mar 12 1998 13:50 - ID#253153)
Avino, currently is very profitable. They are making a ton of money now in Mexico at these Silver prices. Their cost of production is $3.00 and they expanding their output. I'm told that Avino will make at these Silver prices almost $1.50 / share in 1998.. This is a great bargain now. the reported insider sellling was primarily for to raise money for children education. Buy now, it's very chip.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:01 - ID#255217)
Pd up again, surprise, surprise
Save your scrap palladium. NY Merc. Mar Pd $265.50 +$9.80. Move over, gold. You can't cut the mustard anymore.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:03 - ID#341189)
Jin, This report says student protests
Continue in Indonesia, "with little support from" others there. Is that the way it looks to you or are our reports being minimized for consuption outside Indonesia?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:06 - ID#57232)
Thanks for info
aurophile: Appreciate the post. My analytical style carries over into my investing approach -- I tend not to work with things I do not understand. I realize that this may be a handicap of mine, but at least when I do understand something, it is more useful to me. I know WD Gann knew something fundamental, for example -- the 'majic squares' stuff was a smokescreen. Problem is -- he was so secretive that some of his secrets may not have come out -- even now. I have one of Ray Merriman's books, and I find it somewhat more informative the Henry Weingarten's stuff. I gather you think 'The Gold Book' is worth buying. Have you come across any data that gives the foundation for the Bradley index? I have the raw formula, but I am talking about the principles behind the formula. I have one theory, based on the idea that gravity is caused by a particle flux emanating from the galaxy around us -- with possibly higher flux coming from the galactic center, and from stars of any kind -- like Jupiter, a failed star. Eclipses, for example, would entail the moon disturbing this particle flux. This is esoteric stuff ( don't even know if there is an elementary particle that is appropriate ) , so the equations are very approximate, but the force of gravity still comes out in the end. With a good market turning point indicator I could possibly unravel this, and see how well this 'gravity' model fits the relationship of planetary motion with the markets. This model would be less complex than the Bradley index.

Bully Beef
(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:12 - ID#259282)
I take extreme offence to the posters handle at 13:22
I don't care about your ethnic origin. Your handle is simply offensive.Be a sport and change it. L'chiam.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:13 - ID#431263)
Only $35 to go!
AND PALLADIUM IS MORE VALUABLE THAN GOLD!! Anybody got some Ballerinas they'd like to trade for K-Rands?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:16 - ID#316232)
Japan, China, Europe

Thank you for your astute comments. I would like to add that the Japanese and Chinese have one major ace in the hole when their currencies have problems. Financially speaking, they cannot allow the other Asian currencies to stay at such a devalued basis relative to the yen or yuan, or else China and Japan will have continued trade deficits with their Asian partners. This is unacceptable to Tokyo.

To aid the rest of Asian economies, and to keep the yen and yuan from falling at the same time requires that they take the dollar down with them. Slowly and judiciously of course, without obvious political effects... This will not be a pro-gold or anti-American decision. It will be for survival.

At first, I thought that if the dollar was to decline, I would buy Dmarks, but since much of the Asian problem is bad debt to Europe, I suspect that Dmarks will also decline, and will eventually force the selling of dollars as Europe declines. This leaves only one major asset which will appreciate in real terms, and especially in dollar terms. Take a guess.

The question now is when to buy gold. If Indonesia folds near term, there will still be a flight to dollars and another gold dip. Again, I find it hard for gold to rally if the dollar long bond rate is dropping, now near 5.87%, and still trending down. The dollar is still strong, but we're getting to a point where it cannot be sustained.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:21 - ID#410198)
Paladium may be moving has anyone checked out the buy/sell spreads,on Ballerenas

(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:22 - ID#341206)
world gold council reports
this site has some great info. on gold. it is the World Gold Councils Site.

Charles Keeling
(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:36 - ID#344225)
@ The Scene
Hindsight is 20-20. Miners are buying
puts to protect them from any additional drop
in prices. Hopefully these "puts" will
expire worthless and the POG has found a
solid base from which it can return to
profitable new highs.

Gold market sentiment
starting to look up again

By Stephen Wyatt, Washington

The $300 mark is proving a hefty resistance
area for the gold market. Rallies into this
area are persistently sold by gold producers,
funds and the odd central bank.

Even so, the bears are no longer looking for
big price falls from these levels. And while
the gold bugs remain dormant, still
hibernating after years of hyperactivity,
sentiment in the gold market is far better
than it has been for the past two years.

This mirrors the general sentiment in
commodity markets. They have been hit so hard
,primarily by Asia's economic slowdown, that
many dealers and analysts suggest that
the downside is now limited.

The gold price, for example, has already
fallen 30 percent since January 1996. And
because of the extent of this fall, according
to Dinsa Mehta, managing director, global
commodities for Chase Manhattan, the gold
market will find it hard to remain under
$US295/oz. "It is at marginal cost levels,"
he said, adding that there was a
growing sentiment among gold producers
"to re-acquire exposure to the gold price".

This has been demonstrated by significant
buying back of forward sales positions by
producers, especially North American ones.

Without a forward sales position they
certainly are "re-acquiring exposure to the
gold price" -- exposure to moves both up and
down in the gold market.

However, these producers remain cautious.
Few are outright bulls. While they think the
gold market has not much further to fall,
they are still not prepared to completely
open themselves to downside risk. In a way,
this encapsulates the current spirit of the
gold market in particular, and commodity
markets in general.

That's why some gold producers are not just
liquidating forward sales positions, but
replacing these forward sales with gold put
options. Gold put options provide insurance
to miners against gold price falls, but at
the same time, if the gold price rallies gold
producers can participate in this rally.

North American producer TVX, for example,
recently bought back 2 million oz it had
previously sold forward. But it also bought
1 million oz of gold put options.

But don't get too excited about a wholesale
buyback program that can push the market
considerably higher. The producer buybacks
were not a general trend, said Andy Smith,
precious metals analyst with UBS in
London. "Gold producers remember late 1995
when the gold price broke $US400/oz on the
back of a spate of producer buybacks," he

From $US415/oz, the gold market fell over the
next two years to 18-year lows in January
this year. For hedge-lifting gold producers,
like Canada's Barrick Gold, this was an
expensive punt.

For many other producers, the hedge lifters'
misfortune created the opportunity to
establish forward sold positions -- lease
rates eased, the contango widened and
the spot price rallied: a gold sellers' dream.

In fact, it was concerted gold producer
selling that was a primary factor forcing
prices steadily lower over the next two years.

Gold producers will not forget this event.
And today, more than ever before, gold
producers are aware of the threat of central
bank selling of their massive gold stocks.
Weighing on the market was central bank
liquidation of gold stocks. This also
discourages aggressive hedge lifting.

"Central bank uncertainty is still there. The
gold industry is now trying to pin down
central banks and pull them into the fold
in an effort to reduce uncertainty, to make
risk calculable. But don't hold your breath,
" said Andy Smith.

Further restraining gold producers from
aggressively lifting forward gold sales
positions are the commercial banks. No bank
these days is prepared to lend to gold
producers in the hope that the gold price
will rise. The bank might as well buy gold


Look to a successful EMU and a steadily
falling dollar for our next long run of the
GOLD BULL. Should "start" around Sept/Oct
time frame. Then really get moving on 1-3-99.

Look for the Euro to finally release it's
plans for the amount of GOLD reserves that
it will hold for a nice spike. Perhaps in
2nd quarter of 98.

Selection of Physical Gold is now becoming
sparse. Is a shortage developing?

Oil is probably as low as it goes. If it
bases, and then slowly start to recover
towards $20.00, this would be a good omen
for gold.

M3 continues to climb at a 10% clip. With
fears of deflation, the Fed has lost it's
fear of inflation.

The Japanese BIG BANG is coming April Fools
day! De-regulate-raise interest rates-let
banks fail-print money.....And if there is a
problem-------SELL US TREASURIES to raise
cash and BUY MORE GOLD.

If CHINA devalues, JAPAN will be forced to
raise cash. SE Asia will have another wave
of problems, and Wall Street stocks will come
under seige.

The Y2K bug will loom very much bigger on the
horizon after 1-1-99. Profits in 1999 will
be squeezed by the soaring costs involved in
the Y2K fixes. Profits down..Wall Street down.
Production down...Gold Up! PPI Up..Inflation
shows up on the scene.


(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:36 - ID#188235)
@bully beef
I will consider doing that sorry to offend anyone with good sense but farfel is a complete jerk in his postings and has spouted anti semitic remarks far to long to go unchallenged also his pretension to emulate
G-D by signiing off" so spake farfel" is offensive to me.who does he think he his the son of?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:39 - ID#342282)
Polarbear re Harmony Refinery
I tried to get a print on your URL for this. Printer ran out of ink and I can't find your post. Please post the URL again. Many thanx

(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:40 - ID#334219)
JP on Avino
I think you should revise your numbers on Avino. There is no way they can make $1.50 in 98. They may make a small profit though...$0.10-$0.20/share or so.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:44 - ID#26793)
Who are the "big buyers" of Treasuries today?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:46 - ID#188235)
@ Bully beef
I have e-mail Bart to change my handle I will now be identified as RETIRED SOLDIER which is also something else I am extremely proud of as is being a Jew is any body has a problem with retired soldiers they and read my post to farfel same sentiments apply.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:48 - ID#26793)
Rubin says we live in a "dangerous world". Asks IMF funding sans abortion hook

(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:50 - ID#288369)
@Ya'll....So's I call Info-mation Nova Scotia, Canada...and I says....
Maam, can you put me in touch with Ted in Cape Breton? You know, TED...the Cyber-Star of Kitco. She says ( in a very sexy northern draw ) ...Sir, Cape Breton is not a's a region. And then I said...That's TED I need to talk to...he lives there in that region,...yes maam, I sure do need to talk to him...why, it's an emergency...a good emergency, maam.
She says, What kind of an emergency? I respond, Ted has won the Publishers' Clearinghouse....he's goin' be rich again! She put me right through to the man.
Well, folks...Ted does really exist...and he's all he's trumped up to be...One Cool Dude! Stokin' and a Jokin'...keep warm man.

On the Phone....with Studio Yo. New e.mail address...

(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:51 - ID#339265)
...I will not use the "NEW HANDLE'S" name anymore as it might suggest that I am anti-Jewish. Obviously, I am not...on a couple of occasions, I have had to raise the consciousness of several gents on this forum who dislike Jews for no other reason than they are Jews.

As I have said previously, if the "NEW HANDLE" wishes to post his comments under his epithet-like name, then that's his business...just as it is Bart's business whether or not to allow it. I suppose that people who are unduly disturbed will exit the forum.

Thus Spake F*, the Unpronounceable.

Charles Keeling
(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:51 - ID#344225)
RE: Carrier deployment.

Yes, they are still deployed, at a cost of
100 million a week.


(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:54 - ID#26793)
British oil analyst sees oil at these prices and lower for up to 6 months.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:54 - ID#339265)
Good News!! NEW HANDLE has changed his name to RETIRED SOLDIER....
...nothing wrong with a retired soldier. Although their tendency to repeat old war stories can be boring as hell.

Thus Spake F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:58 - ID#342282)
Don't worry, I found the post, thanx

(Thu Mar 12 1998 14:59 - ID#188235)
@ Farfel
I will stop the war now and promis no war stories about my wars Viet Nam,Dominican Republic ( 1965 ) ,Panama,Grenada and Desert Storm this is the Only Mention I will make of this,if my handle hasnt changed yet be patient.Ol Soldier

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:01 - ID#26793)
Venezuela wants non-OPEC producers such as Russia, US, Mexico to "cooperate" on oil pricing

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:05 - ID#342282)
A.Goose re chicken pr
Correction- Meat dpt man told me $4.29/#, but I had to go see. Actually on pkge it's 2.99/# sorry.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:05 - ID#330175)
Hey Studio.............................................*go gold*.......and crude~~~~~
Can't believe ya found me in this remote berg ( speakin of which---ice-bergs are currently dotting my view ( damn it! ) --can't 'a guy' get a break???--or breaker,I should say!!...glad I'm movin 'South' where the gentle seabreezes can lull ya ta sleep and the Pina Coladas are cheaper ( why work--be happy )

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:08 - ID#330175)
Despite "the handle'-------------I like you---------------

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:13 - ID#252127)
This article a must

By L.Parks of FAME and lifted from SI. Very simple to understand it should be e-mailed to all your friends and foes around this planet.
"WHAT DRIVES THE PRICE OF GOLD"> or simply visit their web site occasionally at

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:13 - ID#197289)

The figures don't compute. The fall in revenue from copper and gold more than offset the rise in revenue from silver.
How do you arrive at your figures of 1.50 a share?

The director sold over $60,000 in one week.
Does he have 10 kids going to Harvard?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:15 - ID#339265)
@RETIRED SOLDIER...THE GOOD NEWS IS...'ve made many Kitco posters very happy with your name change.

The bad news is:

The government has decided to revoke your retirement and will be sending you to the Middle East ASAP to help fight the latest cause.

You are to report to the closest military induction center and obtain your anti-anthrax shots as soon as possible.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:17 - ID#252127)
This article a must

By L.Parks of FAME and lifted from SI. Very simple to
understand it should be e-mailed to all your friends and
foes around this planet.

or simply
visit their web site occasionally at

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:20 - ID#269409)
@ Kitco....Politically Correct?
Anyone who's read my posts knows that I go after Anti Semites with a vengeance...but what's this nonsensical political correctness that a new poster who is Jewish, can't choose the handle he wishes by calling himself JewBoy? Old Soldier, you ought to stand your ground pal!

Back to on topic posts, Chicken standard, and the "A"'s....ANOTHER, Astrology, Acupuncture, Asteroids, ( and other "roids..." )

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:20 - ID#345176)
@ Jack

it says "Forbidden access..."

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:25 - ID#188235)
Sorry to disappoint you but I am now too old,too fat,and too sick for this here now modern Army thank the Lord!!!! Ted,thanks for the support but I have asked Bart to change the handle be patient, it served its purpose

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:27 - ID#342282)
Straddler re T/A
I'm having trouble ( brandy ) keeping up with my Posts response. I believe you said from your work gold had a slight advantage to the upside. I find that after completing my charts the same. A pennant formed with a slight breakout to the upside for the price and a slight accumulation to the same. Hope this helps. If it was not you I'm supposed to respond, maybe somebody will id themselves. Sorry, arthritis requires lubrication

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:28 - ID#252127)
This article a must.......sorry for the problem,can't figure it out

Piece by L.Parks of FAME and lifted from SI. Very simple to
understand......... it should be e-mailed to all your friends and foes around this planet.


best to go and scroll down to their Honest Money tab, you will find it.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:31 - ID#339265)
...that on one level, it is every individual's right to nickname himself whatever he chooses. Personally, it did not unduly disturb me that "Retired Soldier" chose his originial nickname...I guess it's no weirder than blacks who run around calling each other "N___gers."

What bothered me is that, in order to address this person, I would be compelled to use that name...and some people who might be logging on to this forum for the first time might construe that, in my using that particular name, I dislike Jews.

You follow, LGB?

Thus Spake F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:32 - ID#227290)
oldgoldpanner & ASM
Sorry, I don't follow the other two stocks. The silver stock I like right now is Coeur d' Alene. I know it's a senior but I think the next rise in silver will take gold with it and CDE produces a lot of gold as well. Plus, it's next big project is a gold mine permitted, and scheduled to produce 200,000 ounces of gold per year in Alaska. It's on hold until higher gold price cmes along. So a higher gold price will not only improve its bottom line with what it already produces, but will work toward increasing gold production by 200,000 ounces as well.
I only follow ASM because of Lou Wolfin. He's a super-nice guy who does things his way. I don't know which director was selling, but if anyone can post it, I'd like to hear it.
One reason ASM doesn't trade well considering it's earning a profit is that the company won't drill off "X" number of ounces as proven & probable reserves. The mine has operated on and off for 500 years. They went completely underground about 2 years ago. But noone knows what the reserves are, so the market never knows where to value it.
About five years ago, Rick Rule got behind the stock and made some good money and then left ASM high & dry. The stock has never recovered.
The company has been permitted to open a gold mine in British Columbia for 3 years now -- and no production.
It's just a paper chase.

I haven't been on much lately, been having mucho computer trouble. I'm working off a laptop now and am taking my desktop to the fixit shop.

Bart, can I change my handle from Preacher to Dirty White Boy? That ought to get some people going good and strong.

The Preacher

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:37 - ID#188235)
2 LGB/Farfel
Thank you both for your support, however I have asked Bart to make the change it has served its purpose, I did the same thing on CNN and will not bore you with the tripe I got from them but it was much worse.
If any on cares my name is Jere

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:37 - ID#252127)
Myrmidon and all, please try my 15:17; it should get you to the article

Sorry for all the difficulties.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:38 - ID#197289)
Preacher(ASM on VSE)
Thanks for the response.
It was Lou Wolfin.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:38 - ID#269409)
@ ...Palladium..Gold..silver...
hursday March 12, 11:35 am Eastern Time

Palladium holds gains despite Russian remarks

LONDON, March 12 ( Reuters ) - Palladium rose to fresh 18-year highs on Thursday,
holding its gains through European trade as dealers ignored remarks by Russia's finance
minister that export licences were due any moment.

The white metal fixed at $259.00 an ounce in the morning and again in the afternoon,
having picked up further sharp gains during early European trade.

The other precious metals were dull in comparison, all losing ground as European trade

Gold fixed at $293.85 an ounce in the afternoon, down on the morning's $294.00.

Spot palladium hit $260.00 as New York trade began, falling only slightly as Russia's
upper house of parliament approved the government's 1998 budget and on comments by
Russian Finance Minister Mikhail Zadornov that the go-ahead for exports of platinum
group metals ( PGMs ) would come soon.

``We have already signed a decree on the export of diamonds. That happened earlier than
last year,'' Zadornov told a news briefing. ``We expect exactly the same decision on
platinum group metal exports in the very near future.''

Such remarks no longer carry much weight in a market which equates this year's supply
freeze with last year's six-month delay in all PGMs exports from Russia, the world's
major supplier of palladium.

``All this harms the reputation of palladium very badly,'' said one dealer in continental

He said Nissan Motor Co Ltd [Nasdaq:NSANY - news]'s February announcement of a
switch from palladium-only car catalysts to traditional platinum-rhodium catalysts would
be the first of many if Russia again failed to prevent delays.

``Carmakers are not really worried about the price, what they need is a reliable flow of
metal and this is clearly no longer the case. People will look for alternatives and the first
one is platinum,'' he added.

``This could really backfire on the Russians if they play this game. If it were to happen
again next year, they would end up with no one to sell it to,'' he added.

One London dealer was unsurprised at the rise in palladium, which was last at
$259.00/$261.00 versus Wednesday's New York close of $253.20/$255.20.

``One London dealer came in this morning with a buy order and that sparked off a lot of
others to come in behind him. Nobody wants to be short in this market,'' the dealer said.

``It can jump five dollars on only 10,000 or 20,000 ounces, which is not a lot of metal,''
he added.

Physical supply of palladium last year was an estimated 5.65 million ounces, 3.2 million of
which came from Russia, according to metals refiner Johnson Matthey.

Palladium opened the year just above $200, rising rapidly to break $250 before settling in
a channel between $225 and $245 until this week.

The metal is used extensively in car catalyst technologies to remove harmful exhaust gases,
as well as in high-grade electronics and dentistry.

Price softness in gold was aided by falling lease rates, which showed one-month metal at
1.90 percent, heading lower once again after a brief rise to 3.23 percent.

``The lease rates are coming off again so it's cheaper to go short. This is one of the main
reasons it's come off because fundamentally, nothing's changed,'' said one dealer.

``From my point of view, I would say we are going to test the recent lows again, maybe
not tonight but certainly tomorrow or Monday,'' he added, highlighting $291 as a target.

Gold was last at $293.60/$294.10, a touch down on New York's Wednesday close of

``The same is true for silver. We tried the upside and failed, which means the $6.00 level
is now critical and if it breaks that then we will go to $5.80,'' he said.

Silver was last at $6.06/$6.09, eight cents off New York's close, while platinum was at
$387.00/$389.00 an ounce, down just a dollar.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:40 - ID#269409)
@ Retired Soldier / Farfel
Anything that stirs the pot now and then, can't be all bad!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:41 - ID#210235)
Jack's link works if you cut and paste it.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:46 - ID#269409)
@ ANOTHER's prediction...4 days to go
Well now, we're well into ANOTHER's 5 - 10 day window during which this big "buy" is going to be made in the Gold market...signaling a desire to go to the $320 - $360 level. Hmmm, I don't see evidence of it yet, but we do have a few days to go eh? Gotta go hunt up the contract action and see if we have a huge rise....

(Thu Mar 12 1998 15:50 - ID#269409)
@ ANOTHER....interpreting scriptures...
Well..of course for you folks that believe every word "ANOTHER" breaths is "ex cathedra", and with all the interprative deconstruction of his every word I've seen here on the forum, surely a contingent will now come forth who will say that ANOTHER meant... 5 to 10 TRADING days, not 5 to 10 calendar days...right????

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:04 - ID#330175)
Great talkin to ya!!!-----------Go RYO!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:05 - ID#258129)
farfel, 15:31
Who else do you dislike?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:07 - ID#330175)
To Jewboy
Be yourself~~~~~~~~~~~

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:10 - ID#410198)
Great web page Jack thanks buddy,To all who are a little STRESSED out there a repost for you

I have been so good today,I haven't raised my voice to anyone.I haven't called anyone rude names.I haven't yelled and screamed or ranted and raved at anyone.I haven't even broken anything or hurt anybody.


I'm getting out of bed in about five minutes and i will proberly need your help then

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:11 - ID#285392)
D.A. If you have a chance would you please read my 13:02 post
Subsequent to that I contacted my broker and he tells me the farthest gold calls he can get from are Feb 99. Can you tell me where he could get quotes on and purchase Dec. 99 calls? Thank you

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:13 - ID#188235)
@ Ted
I never stopped being myself I have two identities I am proud of 1 being jewish 2 having been a soldier

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:15 - ID#39971)
Charles K.
Excellent " on topic " post!Thank you.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:23 - ID#410194)
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released this afternoon:

Gold: Unchanged at 478,974 troy ounces

Silver: Fell 23,156 troy ounces to 91,485,705

Copper: Fell 135 short tonnes to 116,231

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:26 - ID#238295)
Jihad against USA
What to expecxt if US attacks Iraq and perhaps even if US does not attack.


MER - Washington - 12 March:
U.S. and Israelis policies in the Middle East, supported by key
Western European states especially Great Britain, do not come without
a price. And that price could become considerably greater in the
months and years ahead.
Except for the huge military build-up to "liberate" Kuwait in 1990,
never before have so many American forces been stationed in the Middle
East; never before have U.S. attempts to control the region and "disarm"
the Arabs been so blatant; and never before has Israeli influence over
American policies been so considerable.
Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the U.A.E. are now practically
speaking American-protectorates. Other key countries -- including
Jordan and Egypt -- are very much American controlled.
As the Americans continue their policies to disarm and prostrate
the Arab country that was the most powerful -- with the aim of
installing a new client regime in Baghdad and teaching all regimes a
lesson -- a regional counter-reaction may yet take hold. Should the
Iraqis resist in any serious manner they will be attacked again with
massive military force; and this could yet be the spark igniting the
fuse of greater regional turmoil for some time to come.
The following call to Jihad against the Americans was made a few
weeks ago just prior to the U.S. decision to back from militarily
attacking Iraq, using the Kofi Annan negotations for an excuse. Even
so the entire region is now destablized and with an ongoing
reawakening of Arab and Muslim nationalist identity and determination
from Iran in the East to Algeria in the West.


( London, Amman, Washington ) AL-QUDS AL-'ARABI, 2/23/98 ( Page 1 ) :
Fundamentalist groups leaders have issued a statement in which
they issued a fatwa to "kill the Americans, civilians and military,"
in retaliation for any U.S. attack on Iraq.
The text of the fatwa -- contained in a statement faxed to Al-
Quds al-'Arabi and signed by

* Shaykh Usamah Bin-Muhammad Bin-Ladin ( the prominent
Saudi oppositionist;
* Ayman al-Zawahiri, amir of the Jihad Group in Egypt;
* Abu-Yasir Rifa'i Ahmad Taha, a leader of the [Egyptian] Islamic Group;
* Shaykh Mir Hamzah, secretary of the Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Pakistan; and
* Fazlul Rahman, amir of the Jihad Movement in Bangladesh

says that the ruling to kill the Americans and their allies, civilians
and military, is an individual duty [fard 'ayn] on every Muslim who can
do so in any country in which it is possible to do it, in order to
liberate the al-Aqsa Mosque and the holy mosque [Mecca] from their grip,
and in order that their armies move out of all the land of Islam
defeated and unable to threaten any Muslim in compliance with the
words of Almighty God.
Justifying the call to kill U.S. civilians and military men, the
statement said that "U.S. aggression is affecting Muslim civilians,
not just the military." [Fatwa text published in full on page 3]

"F A T W A"

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:30 - ID#341189)
A little problem of design
God said to Adam one day: I've got good news and bad news. The good news is I've given you two systems. A mind to think and solve problems and understand the world. And I've also given you emotions so that you can experience desire and anger and enjoy sex with Eve and have children and have all kinds of strong feelings.

Adam said: That's wonderful and I give thanks for your gifts. I don't see how there can be any bad news in that.

God replied: Well, when I created you I only gave you enough blood to operate one system at a time.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:30 - ID#284235)
(What Drives the Price of Gold?)
Jack: Someone may have posted the address, but if not try this:

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:36 - ID#266110)
@farfel-03/04/98 @00:34 "When someone sins, there's hell to pay"
In your discussion of NEO-STAGFLATION, you correctly reflected the position of Milton Friedman. For the benefit of fellow Kitcoites, while Milton Friedman was instrumental in the miracle turnaround of Chile, I think that he is shortsighted in the implications of his position - how to slay the dragon of deflation. I don't think that you can inflate your way out of it as he claims.


Friedman is a MONETARIST, that is why he says what he does when deflation rears its ugly head. Simply put - the Fed prints more money and immediately deflation has a stake driven through its heart. But its not so easy. The Fed has to get that money into the marketplace. The predominant way is to lend money to the CBs who then lend it out to borrowers. All things being as they are right now, that scenario is plausible. But it fails to reflect the potential situation if the economy tanks and no one wants to borrow money due to the RISK INVOLVED - because every borrower ultimately has to pay it back.

At the other end of the spectrum is the AUSTRIAN SCHOOL - they follow the principles of physics ( ie for every action there is an opposite and equal reaction ) . Utlizing that priniciple, they reason that when excesses occur in the economy - INFLATION - there is a price to pay for that excess. And when you have an excess such as this, you cannot impose the exact same recipe that got you into the kind of trouble you find yourself, in order to get yourself out of trouble.

It's not difficult to draw correlations in all aspects of life. If, for example, you gamble at a casino and lose $50K, the solution is not to lose another $50K in order to recoup the original loss. The AUSTRIAN SCHOOL says that when you lose the original $50K, you've lost the money and there is an impact for having lost the money. Of course this is a somewhat simplistic example. But it is completely logical and needs to be applied to the kinds of excesses we've experienced in the economy for the past 30+ years on a fiat currency.

PROOF - Direct proof of this principle bears out in the case of Korea, they buy coal from Australia to fuel their power plants. Due to the devaluation of the won, Australia companies saw an increased risk for short term trade credit before full payment for the coal received. The rates "soared from less than 1% above the yield on US government debt to around a 5% spread on US government debt...". Even though deflation hit with a real fury, there was a price to pay for the excesses. That was a 5% increase in the cost of short-term credit. If Korea produced more inflation to cover the deflation it is experiencing, then the cost of short-term credit would go even higher.

Correlating this to the US, we have massive asset inflation. The stock market reflects this as shares are bid higher and higher without any regard to P/E ratios or dividends. The bubble continues to expand. When it bursts and the Dow tanks to 5000 or less, money is sucked into the vortex of debt extinguishment. When thousands and millions of citiznes lose significant amounts of money - much of which is already being borrowed - does anyone think that they ( or the lenders ) will be willing to get fried again immediately after a major hemmorage like this? I think not !!!!

To SUMMARIZE, there will be automatic restraints within the market that will not allow for any counteracting of deflation with inflation.

My question to you is whether you think that employment will stay at its current high rate through a time of deflation - especially if profits begin to drop as the US market is flooded with low-cost goods? We're not even close to any kind of deflation in the US yet.

I fully agree with the tail-end of your assessment. People will flee to PMs, as reflected in your "Ultimate result". Yes we will see a major tanking ( sooner rather than later ) . And "yes" PMs will will offer salvation for those who have been wise enough to seek their all important protection.

And in keeping with the AUSTRIAN SCHOOL, those who are outside of the protection offered by PMs will have to pay for their sins - and more importantly, the sins of central governments ( CGs ) . It's bad enough that the CGs perpertrated such evil upon the populace via inflation over the past 50+ years - and then to put the burden of their excesses onto the back of innocent citizens. But keep in mind, there will be a double whammy when the asset bubble bursts. Because this once again, the populace will take it on the chin as their assets sink in value and they still have the same amount of debt.


(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:36 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.41 ( First notch down in an 18 year gold bull market grin thing ) )

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:38 - ID#342376)
TORO LOCO..........
I heard on the radio today driving to work a local AM radio station announcer talking about the DOW and that it had a dip in the earliest part of the session but that people were buying on even the slightest of dips! His tone was one of astonishment. He sees it. Why doesn't everyone else? Today's "slight dip" is still more expensive than only three days ago! Why doesn't everyone just put every cent they've got in this thing and get on with it. I've got friends I've advised to get out of the market. They say to me, "I'm sure glad I didn't take your advise, my stocks have gone up 10% in the last month alone!" So now I find myself daydreaming about a market crash and how I'll secretly want to come back with, you know-----"I TOLD YOU SO!" Which is not an attitude I want to have. I"m begging to wonder if the only thing that will derail this crazy bull is some shock in the world that will be viewed on CNN, MSNBC and the like. Everyone then runs to their phones or computers, dials and pushes the sell button...

Old Soldier
(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:39 - ID#185274)
Memories of a great Jewish warrior
Jewboy, until you said your name is Jere, I had about convinced myself you were the famous warrior Jew, Medal of Honor winner, Jack Jacobs. Undoubtedly you know him. E-mail me at and we can share some war stories that might scorch sensitive eyes.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:39 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .257

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:43 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 47.78

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:47 - ID#280215)
I didn't post at all today, but yesterday I noted some hourly chart observations. I'm not sure if you were referring to these or not

My bias has actually been to the downside in the Short Term. I say short term because the Gold Monthly charts look to be bottoming. Monthly MACD histogram is rising sharply and approaching the zero line indicating upside momentum even though prices are falling. It's the closest to the zero line since early 1997. At the same time Monthly stochastics have started upward. The fast line has gone above the slow and is approaching 20. Monthly moving averages have not been breached yet but most momentum indicators have now begun to point up on the Monthly charts.

Weekly indicators look like they have slowed but NOT TOPPED. The daily indicators are still pointing down though. Daily stochastics are still showing downward a little more and moving averages point downward. In addition, as OLD GOLD pointed out, no positive Open Interest on rising prices yet. This last few weeks of lathargic trading in a downward bias direction ( even the strongly downward days ) have been on very low volume. To me this shows that though we may still have one more push down, it won't be for long. At that point, both monthly and daily indicators will be pointing up from the bottom most point, and weekly will be in the middle pointing up with much upside potental as Preacher pointed out a few days ago.

From the perspective of a technical trader like myself, we're starting to form a situation where Monthly, Weekly and Daily indicators will all be pointing up at the same time. I should stress that this does not happen very often if at all. The next possible upmove could be a wild ride. The last time I saw this situation was Oil in March of 1994. It went from $13.90 a barrel to $21 a barrel by the end of May ( 2 months ) . One last tidbit is that this same situation is forming in the DOW and S&P, but in the opposite direction. Shortly we will have Monthly, Weekly, and Daily all pointiing down at the same time. Makes sense doesn't it??

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:48 - ID#252150)
Allen@The End Of Japan
My negative posts on Japan seem posistively pollyanish , compared to your
13:08. It's amazing how perceptions change. I can recall a couple months ago when my posts were dismissed by Tzadeak, Donald, Haggis & others as far fetched, alarmist & even racist. Now that everyone is starting to embrace the apocalytic view, I am finding some cause for muted optimism.

It's not difficult to envision a total collapse & global depression, but I realy feel that we will somehow muddle through & investors like TED, with his big multinational stocks, will still avg 10-12% per yr.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:50 - ID#215208)
Gold calls
snowbird - Today I picked up Dec98 330 gold calls for $350. Amazingly cheap for that far away. As D.A. mentioned, these have really come down in price.

cherokee - a long way to go to catch you, but 3 calls is a start!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:51 - ID#210235)
Ok, who knows this famous gold guy? Abd el-Melik.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:55 - ID#288399)
Inflation/Deflation conundrum

Well, IMHO, I think we already have both inflation and deflation. Inflation: all that IMF money sloshing around and going into markets. Deflation: lack of demand in the real, physical economy already resulting in falling oil, grains, commodities. That is, commodities in the traditional sense of the word, because -- since the equities begain acting like their own "commodity group", it's hard to know what a commodity is any more. Therefore, despite the bs that AG watches gold for inflation, his speeches point to the fact that he's afraid of inflation showing up in the stock market. Comments? Just a little bored and looking for some action.....

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:59 - ID#269409)
@ Maybe we should cheer for Y2K bug......
The Washington Post reported this week on the growing information service market where companies
legally gathers and sorts electronic data 24 hours a day, about 196 million Americans. These data
warehousing or datamining businesses assemble an array of facts from scattered sources from credit
card transactions and magazine subscriptions to telephone numbers and real estate records to car
registrations and fishing licenses to consumer surveys and demographic details. In a moment of time,
such services can provide electronic dossiers that give marketers details into an American's needs, lifestyle,
and spending habits. Meanwhile, individuals have almost no control over facts that are assembled and
disseminated about them. The report went on to report that "traditional American notions of personal
privacy have become obsolete, outstripped by technology's ability to peer into personal lives." Jim
Settle, formerly with the FBI said, "The whole thing is scary. It's not the government you need to worry
about. It's private industry."

(Thu Mar 12 1998 16:59 - ID#257114)
Canyon Resources
Does anyone know when CAU is scheduled to hit the pink sheets?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:00 - ID#252150)
Old Gold@Jihad Against Americans
The Arabs may vent their frustration & rage by ranting, raving & threatening, but the fact is that they are pathetically impotent. The only way they could really pose a threat would be if they had nukes & Israel will ensure that they never will.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:07 - ID#252150)
Prometheus@Japanese reluctance to spend
I see that Donald already mentioned 1 of his prior posts. It appears that their leaders have really let them down. They should all commit hari-kari ( sp ) .

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:08 - ID#376309)
Money Supply!
Well it's thursday and the money supply is out.
A Really nice move up especially M1 which has been lagging lately.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:10 - ID#347235)

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:10 - ID#269409)
@ James
I agree, my army pilot brother flew many Blackhawk missions in Desert Storm, the "Mother of all Wars". All he saw were white flags and raised hands, and the elite "Republican Guard" fleeing back to Bahgdad. He didn't take a hot, nor did he have any close calls. This is the same kid who's chopper took 23 rounds in the One day Panama incursion to get Noriega.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:11 - ID#269409)
Mo metal wire reports....No big Gold buyer yet....
Hmmm, lackluster action in Gold again today...where's ANOTHER's big buyer at???

New York--Mar 12--NYMEX Jun palladium built on
Wednesday's gains to hit
a fresh 18-year high of $258.50 per ounce late in the session. It
higher on continued nervousness associated with the protracted
delays in
Russian shipments, despite the fact that Russian Finance Minister
Zadornov said today that a decree allowing Russia to start exports
platinum and palladium would be signed soon. Jun settled up
$5.30 at $255.

"Palladium probably jumped because people think that it will
still take
sometime to actually get the shipments going...Or maybe some of
them are
just not believing the statements at all," said one trader, pointing
that last year reports that exports would resume had come out,
only to be
followed by yet further delays.
Russia's 1998 platinum and palladium supply contracts have
not yet been
signed with Japanese customers. Delays in last year's contracts
caused a
sharp runup in platinum and palladium prices and this year many
fear a
repeat in the huge jump in prices and lease rates if they are not
However, one trader cautioned that with Boris Yeltsin
expected to sign
Russia's 1998 budget soon, both palladium and platinum prices
could be
vulnerable to a downwards correction.
Earlier today, the 1998 budget was approved by Russia's
upper chamber,
the Federation Council, in a single reading.
Another trader said that palladium's meteoric price climb
"disconcerting" because it was "too far, too fast," noting that once
makes deliveries prices could "come crashing down."
Others, however, said that the market is so tight they
expected prices
to remain relatively firm, even once deliveries from Russia, the
largest palladium producer and second largest platinum producer,
are made.
Platinum edged higher today, primarily on the back of
gains, silver edged up and gold saw hardly any activity.
Silver climbed on fund buying, which pushed the COMEX
ring into a short
covering rally, said one trader. May settled up 6c at $6.185 per
Apr gold ended unchangedanged after drab trading in a
limited $1 range.
"Gold is sending a neutral signal," said one trader, although he
noted that
it could climb higher, given that there is good scale-down buying
under the
market. "We might see more producer buy-backs," he said.

--Apr gold ( GCJ8 ) at $295.10, unchangedanged; RANGE:
--May silver ( SIK8 ) at $6.185, up 6c; RANGE: 6.210-6.04
--Apr platinum ( PLJ8 ) at $387.9, up 70c; RANGE:
--Mar palladium ( PAM8 ) at $255.0, up $5.30; RANGE:

-- Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:12 - ID#258129)
@farfel, preacher - question about Jews
farfel: in your 15:31 post you wrote "I dislike Jews". Can you explain please in detail, what exactly do you dislike? Skin, nose, hair, behavior, business attitude? Do you dislike that Einstein happened to be a Jew? Other great names? Like Rostrapovich or Chaplin? Tell us about it. And tell us, who else do you dislike. Explain yourself. You was strait enough to announce to the people of the whole world, represented here, that you dislike Jews. Tell us, why do you dislike Jews. How come it to your mind? Is it something, you got from your parents, in school, or later? How far does it go?
Preacher, your 15:32 - "Bart, can I change my handle from Preacher to Dirty White Boy?" - Are your eyes blue? Nordic character?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:13 - ID#347235)

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:15 - ID#266110)
Allen(USA) - Please repost the David Christensen pub on Manias.
You indicated that several months ago, you listed the stages through which manias progress. Could you repost that? I'm relatively new to Kitco and value the wealth of knowledge portrayed by the other participants - you included.

I have read some other limited material on manias and concur with the concept. Why? Because it reflects human behavior. Only when gold gets to $500+ and ounce will the sheep come flocking to this archaic medium. Then, like sheep, they will be led to slaughter.

I agreee with your emphasis on a need to BELIEVE and a desire to BELIEVE their leadership. That's what's happening right now in stox and fiat currencies. The leadership of each CG has propagated inflation, high taxes, welfare victims, more crime, and a general destruction of postive citizenry. But through the process, the sheepeople have flocked to the temple of CG and asked for the next sign to follow each time they get fleeced. And each time, CG has another false prophecy for prosperity.

Even though Japan's CG may have cooked their goose, where else does the populace have to turn? Do you think that there could be an armed uprising as might happen in the US if it occured here? No way!! They have a compliant culture where they need to BELIEVE. They have nothing else.

But the populace in the US is a "threat" to the CG ( even though the Constitution recognizes the people as the government ) because of a potential armed uprising. That's why there's always so much hogwash spewed forth from the liberal elite about the dangers of guns. They know that they live a precarious existence if the silent masses arise. As each day goes by, the question is when?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:16 - ID#266110)
Allen(USA) - Please repost the David Christensen pub on Manias.
You indicated that several months ago, you listed the stages through which manias progress. Could you repost that? I'm relatively new to Kitco and value the wealth of knowledge portrayed by the other participants - you included.

I have read some other limited material on manias and concur with the concept. Why? Because it reflects human behavior. Only when gold gets to $500+ and ounce will the sheep come flocking to this archaic medium. Then, like sheep, they will be led to slaughter.

I agreee with your emphasis on a need to BELIEVE and a desire to BELIEVE their leadership. That's what's happening right now in stox and fiat currencies. The leadership of each CG has propagated inflation, high taxes, welfare victims, more crime, and a general destruction of postive citizenry. But through the process, the sheepeople have flocked to the temple of CG and asked for the next sign to follow each time they get fleeced. And each time, CG has another false prophecy for prosperity.

Even though Japan's CG may have cooked their goose, where else does the populace have to turn? Do you think that there could be an armed uprising as might happen in the US if it occured here? No way!! They have a compliant culture where they need to BELIEVE. They have nothing else.

But the populace in the US is a "threat" to the CG ( even though the Constitution recognizes the people as the government ) because of a potential armed uprising. That's why there's always so much hogwash spewed forth from the liberal elite about the dangers of guns. They know that they live a precarious existence if the silent masses arise. As each day goes by, the question is when?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:17 - ID#390249)
Glenn - money supply
Glenn - what were the money supply numbers? I've been meaning to thank you for posting those Dec99 and Jun99 gold call numbers a few weeks ago.
They were a big help to me. Thanks.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:18 - ID#210235)
Quick, reread farfel's post. You took three words out of context. He didn't want to use a nasty name when posting to RETIRED SOLDIER cause someone might think ( construe ) he dislikes Jews. Got it? That was his objection. It was troubling me, too. I sure wouldn't feel comfortable addressing a complete stranger with a racial slur.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:20 - ID#390249)
Snowbird - call options
I bought some Dec99 calls earlier this week through Lind Waldock. They told me I didn't have a chance in hell of my order getting filled and it was filled in 30 seconds. They couldn't believe it. they should be able to give you quotes.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:20 - ID#258427)
All Ready on the Right ... All ready on the Left...Gentlemen.. Watch your targets.....

See Allen @ 13:08 for manias ( posted today...13:08 )

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:20 - ID#269409)
@ Delphi....he said no such thing
Delphi, re your 17:12. Before you pen long moronic diatribes, based on an inability to read someone else's posts in full context, why don't you have someone you know who reads English, read the posts you're railing against and explain them to you?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:21 - ID#210114)
ECB Gold Reserve Announcement
Does anyone know the date when the EU countries will announce the proportion of Gold Reserves in the ECB?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:21 - ID#342282)
Straddler re T/A
It looks like you have it. I can't yet get by the hour, but my charts are so close i feel daily is good enough for now. I'm waiting for a few days to see how they firm up. Many thanx for your's of 16:47

Aragorn III
(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:24 - ID#212323)
Al in regard to CAU
Al, I'm sure you know better than to expect such an event. Even at these prices Canyon can tread water with its Briggs mine and the industrial minerals business. Your frustration at ever dwindling share-price is duly noted and echoed. It's tough to get excited about the prospects of the McDonald project when faced with the start-up costs vs. the ability to raise capital under current market conditions. Hitting a grand slam home run becomes a sacrifice fly-ball if a joint venture is needed to bring the mine into production. However, Canyon's percentage will probably be significantly larger than the 27.5% they had in their earlier partnership with Phelps Dodge. Hang tough! In the meanwhile, buy some Maple Leafs for short term gratification at these prices...

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:25 - ID#280245)
Carl--"a problem of design"
Well, I had wondered! {:- )
Carl, in the search for the value of things, it has occured [LightBulb goes on] that the ECU has to be formulating an ECU-CRB...don't you think
we need to 'crack that'...I'm not sure where to begin to look! London meeting? Think not. Brussels seems you too? Can you join the
search? ( I remember that you were the first to come up with some good SDR
stuff all those eons ago.

But going for the ECU commodity pricing algorithm seems like a VERY
sensible way to see through [or behind] the Potemkin dollar.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:29 - ID#344308)

announcing the imminent demise of 2 options purchased ( $40ea ) with the
hope for a healthy and long life. alas, they have reached a morass
as wide, as is deep. the hope they fostered has become a perpetual
motion machine...their replacements call......from beyond the brokered me.
time to add 2 more gold calls on expiry tomorrow....jan99 350's....
to me...
!; ) ..waxing-the-skis----big-bear.....charleston....brian head...oh yeah..

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:35 - ID#57232)
Japan on the brink once again - nearly 10 years later.
Allen ( USA ) , Larryn: Allen - appreciate your excellent post about Japan. I am not so sure that Japan will fall suddenly, after hanging in there for nearly 10 years, or more importantly, whether after 10 years, the fall would cause a world financial collapse. According to Donald, only a few Japanese banks are still approved for international trade. Regardless -- it is crucial for us to learn as much as possible about what is actually happening, because big time trouble in Japan would be bearish for gold. Too bad we have no Japanese gold bugs posting. It would also be interesting to learn what the average Japanese investor will do beginning April 1.

I think Larryn has an excellent point about bringing down both the US dollar and the Japanese yen together. The Japanese do have an advantage with a strong currency, in that they can buy or build factories in other SEAsian countries for their business. However, inflating their currency some more would help their property overvaluation/debt problem ( demonetizing debt ) . Also, it is about time for the Europeans to start weakening the US dollar so that they can attract attention to the EURO as a dollar substitute.

So we come to the insecapable conclusion that dollars will be sold and gold bullion will be bought by someone - soon. That may only be the 'closing out' of the 8000 tonnes of gold loans , but the effect will be the same as gold purchases.

The only problem with the future gold bull is that any major implosions in SEAsia, South America or Europe would lead to big time gold sales, not purchases. We gold bugs will be walking a tightrope until all of the major debt deflations are over. Until then we must take care not to get squashed.

If I had infinite patience, I would do like AG, and put most of my assets into something nearly bulletproof, like short-term treasuries, or gold bullion. And then I would wait. But -- unfortunately, I am not that patient.

Lurker 777
(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:35 - ID#317247)
Option quotes until dec.99 FREE

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:38 - ID#329157)
Prometheus gold trivia
Date: Thu Mar 12 1998 16:51
Prometheus ( @trivia ) ID#210235 said:
"Ok, who knows this famous gold guy? Abd el-Melik."

Was it one of these...

A certain Abd-el-Melik ben Merouane features in 'The Perfumed Garden'.
He asked his mistress Leilla what qualities women looked for in men.
Leilla answered him: 'Oh, my master, they must have cheeks like ours.'
'And what besides?' said Ben Merouane. She continued: 'And hairs like ours; finally they should be like to you, O prince of believers, for, surely, if a man is not strong and rich he will obtain nothing from women.'

Don't see the connection with gold apart from wealth.

The father of John of Damascus was was financial adviser to
Caliph Abd-el-Melik, who built the mosque called the "Dome of the Rock" ( which, incidentally, I have visited ) on the site of Solomon's Temple in Jerusalem. I believe it has a gilded dome.

John was known as the "Golden Orator" for his effective preaching.

Now I will ask one:
What is the connection between the following:
Haroon al-Rashid
Abu Bakr Muhammad ibn Zakariyya al-Razi
A A Aziz

Bully Beef
(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:39 - ID#259282)
You may already know this but when you go to the grocery store and they sweep
items that have the Plessy label it goes into a computer that becomes information they can use for buying.PAY CASH! If you use your debit card or in house charge card the store knows your weekly buying habits. They know if you have hemmoroids. They sell this info to consumer groups who have access now to your address so they can send you junk mail. They know how much you earn they Know your credit rating. They cxan tell all kinds of things about you just by what you buy. They will tell you they do this to get better deals for you. They manipulate you! Me I'll buy stuff at the overpriced corner store. ( not )
Retired Soldier thankyou. Its just I really couldn't stick around if this was perceived to be racist. There is a lot of it on the web and I can't be associated with it. I also hate political correctness but that's another story.Although a Canadian my family has fought in the American war of Independance with Ethan Allen ( Green Mountain boys ) before moving to Canada. Then fought War of 1812,WW1 and WW2. I was to young to fight in Nam and Canadians weren't called. Neither my father or Grandfather talked about it much.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:43 - ID#258129)
Sorry, farfel, something is wrong with my English indeed

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:44 - ID#348127)


(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:45 - ID#258427)
Bart...if you are watching.....
Are the frames quotes updating ?? DBC has silver up to 6.20 ...Thanx..

btw..all ... we sure do have some scholars on this group...fat ... arabs well as PM's...

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:46 - ID#347235)

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:48 - ID#344308)

cut and paste for free options quotes for gold

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:48 - ID#348127)


(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:50 - ID#57232)
Thanks! All: How can we get some Japanese posters?
BART: Thanks for being so prompt in getting RETIRED SOLDIER set up. You never cease to amaze me -- your attention to us virtual posters is truly abdmirable. By the way -- I would gladly help if you can think about how we can get some Japanese posters. I think we would all benefit from some more input from that part of the world. We all can see how helpful Jin's posts are.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:51 - ID#344308)

real soldier---
take your tests and stick-em where your head is.....

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:52 - ID#376309)

Thanks. I knew posting all the options would help. IRA Epstein only posts a few of the dec 99's. The money supply is here under H.6

As far as being able to buy Dec99 options. There is always a bid and ask for every option listed. The only difference between a june 98 and june 99 option is that the difference or technically called spread between the bid and ask of the 98 options will be smaller than the 99 options. The spread is simply wider on the long dated options but there will always be an active bid and ask. I've tried to buy some options on the "bid". The problem is there really are no sellers of long dated options. When I mean sellers I mean small paper selling at the market. If you want to buy '99 calls just put an order in at eh market, it will be filled immediately at the best price.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:52 - ID#344308)
apo for the typo-----retired soldier------

(Thu Mar 12 1998 17:55 - ID#266110)
@Shlomo 16:55 Inflation/Deflation
Agreed that there is a lot of IMF money sloshing around and being used to plug holes created by abuses of the market. This only reinforces the past mistakes which will conceivably result in something similar in the future that requires IMF bailout again.

It seems to me that the US has a gun to its head - it needs the Japanese to continue buying our debt. The US is using the IMF to keep the game going.

About deflation. I don't see it hitting in the US as so many claim. If it was, then we would see devaluation of property, lowering wages, and all sectors within the economy. We aren't even close yet. The drop in oil is due to supply, lower demand in Asia, a warmer winter, and increased refining capacity. Similarly in computers, the market keeps bringing more computer for the money.

AG? Who really knows? As any student of politics will reinforce, a politician will tell you anything as long as you give him what he wants. So, as long as the markets give AG what he wants, then he's a gold bug. But when factoring in the "inflation" factor. There are still a lot of drums along the Mohawk that are beating to the rhythm. When money flows as easily as it does - 125% loan on your house. I think that inflation is still alive and well. Otherwise, why are they willing to makes these kinds of loans?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:00 - ID#26669)
Ultimate paranoid trip: Gold to $100,000? Tsunami to wipe out CB's? I wonder if gold will go up when this thing makes its next pass?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:04 - ID#347235)
@ cherokee
Your head is obvipously in yours if in FACT YOU are CHEROKEE YOU

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:10 - ID#20136)
Chicken patrol and ...
I just got back. I am collecting the few responses I received and I will post the results later.

I believe that Mosel suggested that we try an egg instead because it is more uniform. I will buy a dozen eggs tomorrow and we will try it. Our problem is we need inputs from Japan, China, Saudi Arabia, Germany, France, England . As A.Goose, I should have know that a egg would be a better choice as a medium of measuring value.


I think that we are seeing the same scam going on against the Middle East as we have recently seen worked against the Far East. I admit that there is far to much oil flowing and the world is awash in oil, BUT the world has far more U.S. dollars floating around than grains of sand on the beaches. It is only paper back by the BIGGEST debtor, that manufacturers NOTHING and produces NOTHING but financial instruments.

To see oil go down in terms of the U.S. dollar is to step into the "looking glass". Up is Down and Down is Up. Remember reality sucks, but if you ignore reality to long IT WILL BURY YOU. The U.S. is in dire straights and I believe we are seeing the final acts of this facade.

The world is realigning against the U.S. dollar. China, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Russia and Indonesia will become a EU type trading block. Japan is going through a philological reorganization of their government. The old pro U.S guard is being replaced with a more pro Japan group that will reject the histroical relationship between our two countries. Within 18 months we will see major solid currencies come out in competition to the U.S. dollar. The Euro and the ______. The U.S. dollar is in major trouble, but we are in the "Looking Glass" and so things look backwards and upside down at the moment. Soon REEALITY will prevail and all will make sense.

I am so sick of hearing that we in the U.S. live in a Goldilocks economy. Indeed we do because the U.S. is not playing a honest game. Remember Goldilocks ate out of everyone else's bowl. And the Bears got quite upset once they found out Goldi stole from them.

( IMHO )

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:17 - ID#206116)

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:19 - ID#31868)
Try powdered eggs - easier to measure.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:24 - ID#266110)
Yen devaluation - expect Y140-Y150?
With all of Japan's problems, what kind of maneuverability do they have in their economic policy? Not too much. They have deficit spending that already runs at high levels. With that situation, they don't have much option in using fiscal policy for stimulating the economy. And when their interest rates are less than 1%, they can't lower rates to zero. So the question is: how to get Japanese banks to begin lending money again and hoping for the resultant stimulous?

To make matters worse, nonperforming loans in SE Asia are hemorraging losses. Real estate has imploded. And with the Nikkei on weak footing, how can banks perform when so much of their capital is tied up in the market?

The combined pressures of declining export competitiveness and the kind of appetite that Japanese investors have for high yields in foreign bonds, should bring more pressure for steady selling of the yen.

This means a lower yen even if there is a Japanese trade surplus.

Any thoughts?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:25 - ID#254110)
Big Blast
I'm sure that a mile wide asteroid will shake up the market. and send gold through the roof ( not to mention the walls floors and orbit ) but i'm nor worried in thirty years I'll be taken harp lessions. I need PMs to skyrocket now when I can still enjoy it!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:30 - ID#269409)
Asteroid Moot
Never listen to media hype ( Y2K freaks are ya listening? ) An exhaustive re-calculation of the Asteroid's trajectory has determined that the fly by will be 600,000 miles away minimum...

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:30 - ID#210235)
ALL RIGHT! Yes, he is the Caliph, Adb el-Melik of Damascus, in whose 7th century reign the very first dinars were minted. The first dinars imitated Byzantine coins, but soon changed into the form with all pictorial ornament religiously excluded in favour of quotations from the Koran. Sure would like to see one of those very rare first coins, if any exist today.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:31 - ID#210235)
nah - it will be a buying opportunity!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:33 - ID#210235)
I do believe one RETIRED SOLDIER is here looking for an argument. Now, he didn't pay his 5 bucks at the door, so his time's up.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:35 - ID#339265)
@DELPHI....RE-READ MY POST 15:31 (if you are half-literate)...
I never said anything negative about Jews....never have and never will.

That you would construe such is either a manifestation of something in your warped imagination or your abject inability to read.

Thus Spake F*, the Unpronounceable.

Charles Keeling
(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:39 - ID#344225)
Venerosa mentioned something about
the possibility of NEGATIVE interest rates.

Imagine-your living in Japan and you can
borrow at 1 % and invest in US Treasuries
that return 6%+/-. That is a better spread
than a S & L gets when making a mortgage.

Savings accounts pay like 4-5, and mortgages
are at 8-9.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:39 - ID#26669)
C'mon, LGB this isn't about asteroids. It's about Paranoia!
It's not the asteroid that would bring the market up but the fearful response. Remember this is supposed to be a world where people are like lemmings, willing to follow the herd over the abyss! Stranger things have caused panics. IMHO

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:40 - ID#266110)
@farfel - got a post coming at you 16:36 RE: Neo-stagflation
I'd like to get your reaction and continue the discussion.

Mike Stewart
(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:43 - ID#270253)
Racial overtones
I don't understand the racial comments/self expression that we are seeing here. We all share a strong interest in precious metals. That is why we are here at Kitco. That is our bond. isn't that good enough?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:43 - ID#28781)
Some technical thoughts on Silver

Good evening everyone, been away for a few days. I find it fascinating on Monday that silver prices touched the rising trendline connecting the October and January lows -- and then bounced so far. Needless to say I think this is critical support.

I think there are two possibilities that present themselves going forward. One is for a very bullish 1,2; 1,2; 1,2 formation that has evolved from the July 97 lows. That would be confirmed on a break above the early February highs. The other is for a wave "b" rally to at least 6.70 and then a final decline to around the 5.50 area. This would correct the advance from 4.35 to 7.50 and allow for a very bullish move above the old high of 7.50

In the short-term a break above 6.30 or below 5.95 is in the cards. Momentum has pulled back to neutral. I'll go with the upside.


(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:44 - ID#206358)

These few days,the movie "TITANIC" screened up in south KOREA.The peoples just Mad Rush for the film.Break all the records.It's a good lesson for everyone over here to remind the ASIA ECONOMY!Meanwhile,The govt of S.KOREA busy melting the ornaments which recently donated by the citizens. thousands kilos in good shape ( 1 kg or 1000 grams ) each.Ready for the sale when higher price.Not sure...!
After the election,these two days,seem calm.Indo sure have things to settle.The cabinet's,policy with imf,fx board,opposition parties protest.
But,the illegal immigrants just UNBELIEVEABLE smuggled through the border to neighbourhood countries.Busy sending them back,feeding,keep them,guard them,another big things to solve.the crime rates higher each day.not sure the situations will getting better in short term.

off for my breakfast.Rice with vegetable/meat/..curry!By the way,both indonesia and thailand hit terrible by the HIGH INFLATION!Malaysia followed up .....berggggggh

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:45 - ID#253246)



(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:46 - ID#238295)
Bart: Plenty of anti-Arab aand anti-Japanese racism on the site today. But perhaps that is OK.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:46 - ID#34857)
I fear Mr. RETIRED SOLDIER seeks attentions and redresses to wounds we cannot heal here. Pity.


(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:47 - ID#220325)
D.J. lurker777, Neophyte, Glenn
Thank you for your responses. I am looking into them all. This is what makes Kitco a very good site.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:48 - ID#210235)
Please see post of 17:43 to you.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:51 - ID#266110)
@ Charles Keeling - Yeah, 1% reinvested at 6%, I know
That's why I wrote what I did. I said that the Japanese are addicted to the high yield foreign stuff. They've got to buy the foreign bonds with yen which parallels the selling of yen. And with so much yen available, the conclusion that I come to is that the ratio between the yen and $US will potentially head towards Y140-150.

It's just a thought. But going NEGATIVE in interest rates? I'd don't think so Tim - at least not on this planet.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:53 - ID#393224)
Anvil(AVL)starting to move.
Aussies who may have noticed my comments a couple of weeks ago about AVL high grade/low cost copper-silver deposit in the Congo. The shares have woken up this morning. Up move on heavy volume means some of the bigger campers are putting their wieners in the fire.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:54 - ID#26669)
Retired Soldier, Cherokee, LGB, F*, et all
Sorry, but you boys/girls/berdaches all look alike to me. Jes' curiosity but did you know that the genetic difference between humans ( of all races ) and chimpanzees is less than 1 percent?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:55 - ID#339265)
@LOCK & LODE RE: Your 18:40...Very Compelling, smart analysis...'ve got me thinking.

Allow me some time to reflect on it and I will respond.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:59 - ID#206358)
Just read one message ( chinese version ) that on saturday there is one announcement by SHUHARTO,that he will appoint few family members and close friends into the cabinet.This sure will against the IMF rules and triggle the flame again.
Any comments!Sorry for my poor grammar!

happy trading!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 18:59 - ID#256254)
This Just about sums it up...
Relax, take abreath and ...

Play with the newest cards in town...

The Clinton-Lenisky Affair Trading Cards.


(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:00 - ID#251268)
could be your coment or the fact copper up 3 percent today.
gold up on nite trading already,h'm now that the j options
are expired or executed on the open am could be interesting
how many shorts want to go home for the weekend with exposure?

Bill El Zebub
(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:05 - ID#261352)
I'm a 1/2 Jewish & Japanese Man married to a black Arab Muslem woman...
but I thought this was a goldbug site so I haven't mentioned
it before.I hope I'm still popular.I get the feeling Hep is near.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:09 - ID#26793)
@Prometheus: Photo of gold dinar like one I own. G'haznavid kingdom 1059AD

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:12 - ID#375405)
Oxiana Resources(OXR)
Sure wish more of you N.Americans were investing in Aussie shares. Here is another little company with no debt,a going copper mine to pay the bills and a huge new silver/gold discovery in the Philippines. Grades up to 900g/t Ag over large drill sections. Completely overlooked on the market. I am going to enjoy saying "I told you so" when these guys triple in price on copper recovery and higher sustained silver prices.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:12 - ID#339265)
...Mike, the scary thing is this...

...the majority of goldbugs have not done so well economically, especially over the last couple of years. With gold stocks turning to trash, gold miners being thrown onto the streets on a weekly basis, once again, we are seeing a great increase in anti-minority sentiment ( aimed especially at the usual scapegoat, Jews ) from various Kitco participants who are thin in the pocketbook.

Now extrapolate this anti-minority sentiment to the majority of the population when the stock market bubble bursts...and you see we have a major potential racial problem around the corner.

That is why I am furious with Prez is up to the chief executive to do all in his power to rein in the excessive speculation in the markets...when the market started to turn Southward in October '97, it should have been allowed to fall to whatever equilibrium level necessary to stem the "irrational exuberance" at that time. Instead, Clinton held an emergency news conference to pump up the market again.
IBM announced a major share buyback program, thus interfering with the natural outcome of the market.

The mutual funds colluded to initiate simultaneous share buyback programs and the market went roaring back up faster than it fell. In other words, cartel-like behavior interfered with the natural progress of the free equities markets.

Net we have a stock market that is already almost 20% more irrationally exuberant than it was in Oct. ' the next collapse should be far worse...and possibly unstoppable, even with interference from the Prez and corporate America.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:19 - ID#26793)
Farfel; this is what happens when times get tough. Repost from AM

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:23 - ID#266110)
@ farfel RE: Your 19:12 You're right about the Prez in theory
BUT when you take into account the fact that it is the economy that keeps him in office, he can't have the markets have a self-cleanzing action. He has to keep the charade going so he can continue to be the sleezeball that he is.

The more the bubble expands, the more it's likely to burst and when it does, gold will come roaring forth with a vengence. It will consume those in it's path who are not under its protection. I think of the German experience in the 1920's when paper currency was only good for starting a kitchen stove. 20 DMark Kaiser gold coins were the only form of salvation. That's one reason why they are so beat up and more difficult to find.

If gold carried the wise holder of the PM through the 1920's then it can do so again. Remember, wealth is not lost - only transferred.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:23 - ID#251268)
Night trading
I think we might see some action at least a couple bucks one way
and the other there is a lot of presure building up in this
flat line trading, sooner or later someones got to come out firing there is at least 90.000 April contracts alone and you cant tell
me they are all content at 295,I think we will see some movement
tonight and I hope its up!I got apr,gold 295.40 and june 297.50

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:25 - ID#26793)
Another harbinger of things to come

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:29 - ID#31868)
I support Suharto over the US and IMF dirtbag banks
and corporations.

jim c
(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:31 - ID#69280)
I can't believe people would blame losses in investments on being a minority.
Being a minority myself, I thank that I have my health , limbs, and a fantastic country in which I live. It is always easy to blame someone else but sooner or later it is best to look within. BTW Go Gold! IMVHO.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:32 - ID#256254)
Date: Thu Mar 12 1998 18:24
Lock&Lode ( Yen devaluation - expect Y140-Y150? ) ID#266110:
Copyright  1998 Lock&Lode/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Lock&Load, what happens to the Yen's value if they send all our bonds and bring home the money home as Yen or Gold? What happens if they raise their interest rates a half of a point or more to negate the Yen/treasury investment? What happens to the Yen's value if they join in an Asian currency system that doesn't accept U.S. dollars for trade?

I think the U.S. dollar is standing TALL on quicksand, yelling for people to look everywhere except at the structure the dollar is standing on.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:32 - ID#26793)
Only one third of Korean construction firms will survive

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:32 - ID#269409)
@ Retired Soldier
You don't have a brother named "Bernatz Van Hepcat" by any chance do you?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:33 - ID#339265)
@ usual, another great post... provide the best info on this forum.

Several months ago, I warned several posters who expressed jubiliation about "cheap" imports from Asian that the turmoil there would eventually reach American shores...certainly, once Japan is fully caught up in the mess, America is bound to be infected as well.

There will probably be one major difference...Americans will probably react in even more neanderthal ways than Koreans simply because, in America, many people feel they are "entitled" to entitlement that comes simply from being American. At least Koreans, Japanese, and other Asians are more accustomed to a relatively modest standard of living...on the other hands, Americans demand at least two cars per least three TVS...a bedroom for each child, etc. etc. Any economic downturn will frustrate Americans 100 times more than its effects on Asians.

Thus Spake F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:34 - ID#31868)
jim c your quote below - so true, cheers!
"It is always easy to blame someone else but sooner or later it is best to look within."

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:38 - ID#257136)
farfelI detect a distinct 'O de Hen House int e 15:31 post, sir.
One can, you know, wait 'til one has been struck b 4 cryin'!

From a Middle aged non- retired Soldier. ( citizen soldier cerca 1950--51. )
Lest the sensitive become engorged, this is not a slam.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:39 - ID#26793)
Americans would face big changes if inflation changed to deflation,local/30d9f11a.311,.html

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:41 - ID#253153)
Great comments, farfel keep up your analysis

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:41 - ID#390249)
FARFEL - Govt intervention in the markets last October Glenn - Thanks
Here's what really happened in the markets last October. This was posted by DA KINE on March 3rd and I saved it because it was so significant.

Glenn - Thanks for the information on calls. Are you bullish or bearish on gold at this point?

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:44 - ID#26395)
No time to think of a subject header
To: RETIRED SOLDIER: My first reaction to your original name was that you wanted to disrupt things without technically breaking the rules, since there's no sub-section in our guidelines that covers handles. I was sure that you were some high school student using the internet without your parents' permission. I guess not. Anyway, you said "The original handle was a test to see if the pc types could stand a jew who isnt liberal in his thinkiing".

But this is a gold discussion group, not a social science laboratory. Now that you have nonetheless successfully conducted your experiment and obtained your results, please begin to focus your comments on gold.

To: JTF You said: "I would gladly help if you can think about how we can get some Japanese posters. I think we would all benefit from some more input from that part of the world."

I'm game. How about: I would gladly help if you can think about how we can recruit them?

To OLD GOLD: I direct your attention to farfel's 19:12 as a possible explanation for the amount of anti-minority sentiment we've witnessed here. It might be interesting to correlate the number of anti-minority sentiments here with the price of gold. My guess is that we'd see a lot fewer in a bull market if we could ever get one.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:50 - ID#26793)
Japanese economy is "decelerating on every cylinder"

Mike Stewart
(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:54 - ID#270253)
Vacation Gremlins
Everytime I go on vacation, ( Mar 93 Gold went nuts, April 94 Dow tanks, July 96 Techs die ) something happens to force me to phone home with trades. I always prepare a list of possible trades before I leave.

Warning : I am going to Chincoteague Island, Virginia tomorrow.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:56 - ID#30116)
Speaking of ....
Did anyone see the PBS news spot on the Indonesian problem? The Indonesians, it seems, feel that the local Chinese are the 'cause' of their high inflation. So the local peoples are 'rightfully' looting the predominantly Chinese owned businesses because they are raising prices higher than they 'should'. Go figure? The more things change... The more they stay the same. The only thing that changes, is the faces...

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:58 - ID#31868)
They are so clever, getting us ready for something eh!
Tours halted after 'possible terrorist activity'
Copyright  1998
Copyright  1998 The Associated Press

WASHINGTON ( March 12, 1998 12:42 p.m. EST ) -- Some public tours were halted after threats were made against federal buildings in the Washington area, officials said Thursday.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:59 - ID#26793)
Someone said widespread fraud is the sign of a top.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 19:59 - ID#347235)
@ Bart
Sorry to have caused all the problems,at first I just wanted to identify myself. After the initial hate mail I asked to change my handle some people did not want to just let go so I retaliated. I am sorry to have lowered my and your standards and will not do so again

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:03 - ID#347235)
@ Bart
Sorry to have caused all the problems,at first I just wanted to identify myself. After the initial hate mail I asked to change my handle some people did not want to just let go so I retaliated. I am sorry to have lowered my and your standards and will not do so again. In my first pst I said I am new to the Gold Bidness ( Pls no Texans get mad I lived there for years ) and only own 37 oz want advice whether it is better to buy bullion or numismatic coins for best growth and safety

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:05 - ID#347457)
Oh Boy, if I had to judge based on today posts, gold is in deep trouble
I guess there is nothing to be said about gold so we just turn into game of "I am bigger and better than you" where anything goes, ethnic origin, religion, race, or just a bigger "manhood" and fighting spirit.

Sorry, I am too old for this, just dont change my handle to "Old Grump".

What a sorry state of affair on this forum - the same goes for gold.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:08 - ID#254110)
One more comment about the Asteroid...
Maybe asteroid 1997 XF11 is thirty years off. But they dont always see these things coming. Remember 1996 JA1 They only saw that one days before it passed 288,000 miles away. See It was only half a kilometer wide but it would have been one hell of a kick in the nuts if it had hit.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:10 - ID#316232)
kitco power
To show the immediate influence of KITCO discussion, I heard on the TV that Saddam was withdrawing several divisions from the Kuwait area because he had been informed by his Kitco observers that some soldier was coming out of retirement to be assigned to Checkpoint Charlie on the Kuwait/Iraq border.

I think it was on CNN. Or maybe ESPN.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:10 - ID#30116)
The fact of the matter is....
Commodities have not been what the boomers are conditioned to buy. As a group, they believe in equities for their retirement. They are convinced that if they don't have one to two million dollars to retire on, that they will be eating dog or cat food out of a can on some park bench in the middle of winter somewhere. Twisted, self centered thinking for sure.

Gold? That doesn't 'grow', provide fixed income return, or do anything 'exciting'. So why should they buy it? For the moment, let the Russian's provide us with some action in the 'white' metals........

Besides, losing money always puts me in a foul mood....... ( Then again, if I were a bird, would I be in a fowl mood? English, what a language. )

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:14 - ID#257136)
Retired Soldier: Isn't the difference between 50 and 37 --13?
Triscadecaphobians prolly wun't a caught that one. ( :+ )

We do bidnes heer in Arkansas too!!

Mr. Mick
(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:14 - ID#345321)
Donald - Thanks for the post on Japan and deflation..........
it confirms my previous postings about the fact that we are in world DEFLATION.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:16 - ID#288295)
FREE FREE FREE PGP Download site

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:20 - ID#30116)
Besides, how about that Stillwater today? Just keep on thinking, "SUVs ( sport utility Vehicles ) are good, bigger cars are better, cleaner emissions are.... Greed is good..."

:- ) )

Lighten up folks.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:20 - ID#316232)
JDS-BC comments. The experts are predicting that the asteroid in question will come close to us after earth has moved around the sun 30 times and the solar system has moved some zillion miles thru the cosmos and the said rock has also moved around the sun 15-20 times without hitting anything else to alter its path. This sounds like a promo for anti-asteroid funding, and we have only 30 years to get with it.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:21 - ID#255217)
Nick@C, Re: OXR
Nick, I am in Texas. Does that qualify me as a N.A.? I went to OXR's home page. But I would like you to fill me in on current price of OXR and its prospects near term, if you would be so kind. Looks to me like the major mine is in the Phillipines. Correct?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:25 - ID#30116)
Things could be worse...
Cool, 'breezy', overnight temperatures anyone??

Kind of reminds me of the gold market...

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:26 - ID#30116)
One more time...

Cool, 'breezy', overnight temperatures anyone??

Kind of reminds me of the gold market...

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:28 - ID#411149)
BUFFORD- what was tht 18:45 all about? You must be a little
confused, Blanchard sold those funds some time ago with the sale
of his Blanchard coin operation, the whole works. I am not aware that he
much saso to the running of the present day fund.
I can assure you his largest personal holding is DROOY! And YES we both would love $320 gold, tomorow.
Good luck to you!

Tally Ho

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:30 - ID#20748)
There is nothing wrong with the people in America. It is the corporate leaders and the financial markets who are in state of complete denial, refusing to recognize that it's only a matter of time before the Asian problems reach the U.S. shores and do serious damage to their balance sheets. While Rubin and Greenspan are doing their best to stem the tide-witness the personal telephone calls from Clinton to Soeharto and the despatch of Walter Mondale to Indonesia-no one is willing to speak up in public, lest it roils the markets. That's what happens when the political fortunes of the administration are tied up so closely with the S&P 500.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:31 - ID#426220)


Methinks, he ain't that smart!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:32 - ID#413109)
War stories
Date: Thu Mar 12 1998 16:13
Jewboy__A ( @ Ted ) ID#188235:
I never stopped being myself I have two identities I am proud of 1 being jewish 2 having been a soldier.
Hey man, let's put on our helmets and tell some war stories, but not
on this site, please!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:41 - ID#330175)
Panda(20:26)................................and March MADness
'Them' are summer temperatures in Cape Breton~~~~~~Go Tigers & gold!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:42 - ID#342282)
Jin re Japanese recruits
Have you got any friends that would like to Post your or area views on Kitco? Check with Bart and see if we can get some real people comments. thanx, Charlie

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:45 - ID#247273)
Asteroid deflection
The asteroid in question could be deflected if a powerful laser beam were trained upon it and held there for long enough to produce sufficient deflection to avoid any chance of collision with earth. This laser could be positioned on the moon, or in space, with sufficient accurate guidance electronics to maintain the aim of the beam. Perhaps an IPO for a company dedicated to this concept and implementation should be held. Of course, one would also need to determine in advance the occurence and content of precious metals within the asteroid, to ensure recoverability and cashing in on the "rock". By then of course, the price of PM's should be in the $M range, unless we have fusion to manufacture gold and platinum from other metals. The company will be called De-Flaser-Oid, a penny high tech stock. Someone is probably working on this concept right now. Cheers.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:46 - ID#316200)
A link to more links
Here's a link to many interesting links regarding finance.
There is something here for everyone, enough for three men.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:50 - ID#393224)
Argent--re:Oxiana Resources
G'day mate. I guess Texas barely qualifies as part of the USA. For up-to-date prices there is a place to click on in the URL. You can also click on the Australian Stock Exchange in the URL to find out how to trade in Oz. Wish more of you would expand your horizons beyond N.American mining shares. Oz shares extremely undervalued in comparison IMHO. Y'all have a good nite now, hear?

Bully Beef
(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:50 - ID#259282)
There should have been no intervention when the market was falling.
Farfel is in my opinion quite right.NO FREE MARKETPLACE.BUT WHAT WOULD BE THE COST IF THEY HADN'T? U.S. and Canada are pretty cushy places to live right now. High gold at what cost? Well there is a full moon and I'm going out to howl at it. After all Tommorrow is Friday the 13th and this is the Ides of March. Someone said there is a partial eclipse somewhere. The gold Messiah has spoken to us with a prediction ( ANOTHER ) .We have resolved cultural conflict without shooting anyone. Just another day in paradise. OWWWWWOOOOOOOOOOOOO! The best laid plans of mice and men gan oft aglay. Next week will be a hummer. All we need is an earthquake in the northwest.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:52 - ID#170304)
Donald : House deflation....

Great article...deflation and house prices...only problem i see with
their article is that its 10 years too late....we have had
deflating house prices in the northeast for at least 10 years...the guys
who wrote that article are boobs...only in the last 18 months have
prices/sales for houses moved up....if there is a conspiracy it must
surely be by those nincompoops who are pounding the table about

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:55 - ID#39971)
Calling All Japanese

Latest News.Hashimoto to visit Indo. for arm twisting session.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:57 - ID#20748)
Money Supply. A must read

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:57 - ID#30116)
-23 degrees F with a 60+ mile per hour wind? If that's summer time temps up there, then what happened to global warming? ( And you can keep your 'summer' time temps too! )

BTW, if 'the' asteroid hits, there is much talk of it causing global cooling. It's TRUE! :- ) )

Can you believe the way that the eco-heads are talking about this? As though we can do something about it? :- ) ) ROTFL :- ) ) I guess that some peoples minds are so open, that their brains fell out and they picked up some hubris to replace it with........

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:59 - ID#194311)
Dollar bear's first Spring growl ....
U.S. Trade Deficit Jumps
WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The government said Thursday the U.S.
trade deficit jumped to its second-highest level ever last year
just as the financial crisis began to sweep through Asia. The
Commerce Department said the current account deficit, the
broadest measure of the country's trade performance, widened to
$166.45 billion from $148.18 billion in 1996. Officials say
that's the biggest gap since the record $168.1 billion deficit
in 1987 when Ronald Reagan was president. Clinton administration
officials have eyed the rising deficit with growing alarm
because Americans are growing increasingly wary of free trade
and globalization.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 20:59 - ID#252127)
What happened to MoneyBags?????? He wasn't real mean, just out of place occasionally.

Aren't we all, at times???????

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:00 - ID#255217)
@ Retired soldier et. al.
When it comes to a decision about whether to purchase bullion gold ( maples, eagles, etc, ) or numismatic coins for survival, I always go with the bullion items because of the ( much ) smaller premiums. Buy the most gold for the least money ( always coins; NEVER buy bars ) . The numismatic material is nice ( I own some ) , but your purpose is to accumulate GOLD, not collectables. If you like numismatics, fine, become a munismatist. But if gold ever goes to the moon, premiums may disappear like the morning dew. A gold coin that has a 40% premium over its gold value now, will almost certainly lose that premium if ( when ) the gold value goes up substantially ( $600, $1000, $1500/oz. ) . True rarities will be the exception. Buy the gold, not the collectible.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:02 - ID#341189)
I may be the only one in North America who hasn't seen Titanic. Thank you for keeping us up on what's happening "on the ground" over there. I and many of us here ( on this forum ) are suspicious that the reporting on what's happening there which we receive is minimizing the potential for political chaos. The impression here ( at least mine ) is that Suharto is playing with the IMF and the US and has no intention of doing anything which will not profit him personally. This whole thing reminds me a bit of the Shau of Iran in his last years. Take Care.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:03 - ID#194311)
New soils for dollar hegemony
Moi protests West's forcing of economic systems on Africa

NAIROBI, March 11 ( AFP ) - Kenyan President Daniel arap Moi said
on Wednesday that it was wrong for western countries and donor
agencies to force African nations to accept economic systems which
were incompatible with individual needs, the official Kenya News
Agency ( KNA ) reported.
The agency quoted Moi as telling African heads of mission in
Kenya, who paid a courtesy call on him at State House here, that
"every individual case must be studied separately and local leaders
consulted before prescribing such systems."
"Economic and political systems in Africa were going awry
because nations had been arm-twisted into accepting irrelevant
politics," Moi told the diplomats grouped under the umbrella
organisation, African Diplomatic Corps.
Moi also advised that African countries should present their
individual problems and needs in an honest manner, without trying to
please anyone.
"It was worrying that Africa had for a long time been used for
political experiment, most of which had gone wrong," Moi said, and
decried the practice of spending up to 60 percent of aid money on
feasibility studies and consultancy, even in cases where this was
not necessary.
Moi noted that the main reason for Africa's crippling poverty
was its late arrival into the technological arena, pointing out:
"Although the continent had enormous resources, it lacked the
technological capacity to exploit them."

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:07 - ID#78136)
Spent the last week in Hawaii and I think they have
a good dose of the Asian Financial Flu. Cheap return
air tickets and cheaper accommodation. Although they
have been in a recession for the last five years, now
a lot of talk of real estate being dumped by the Japanese.
There is no question there is a lack of Asian tourists, although
many there are still buying at the Gucci store. How long will it
be until this "Asian Flu" hits the mainland?
Does anyone have any figures with respect to Asian buying of gold
this quarter?
To Retired Soldier. I would recommend you stock up on gold Maple
Leaf. A few good gold mining stocks wouldn't hurt.
Does anyone else like Steppe Gold, VSE, SPE? Shares don't trade much
it is about 0.34 and they have some interesting property in Russia.
Their president is quite open in his email on company developments.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:09 - ID#348169)
@Carl and Argent
Carl - Keep chin up - I haven't seen it yet, either. Argent - WHY never buy bars? Premiums are low compared to other vehicals and quality is assured by reputable refiners mark. Please clarify your statement.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:14 - ID#341189)
If you're still out there, your suggestion about the euro CRB got me to thinking about all the ancilary plans that must be being made which might be quite revealing. I think I'll spend some time in the library over the weekend in the journal section. ( The Web is fine for what it is, but nothing beats a good library, nor will it. ) You've got me thinking like a spook. {:- )

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:16 - ID#330175)
Soaring Nikkei
Nikkei up 525 ( 3.17% ) ~~~~~~~~~Tigers win!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:16 - ID#20748)
HepMeMoney_Hmm. A deal
is being offered to Suharto through Hashimoto. Just as one was struck with Saddam through Kofi Annan. It will not be too long before all UN sanctions are lifted from Iraq. For humanitarian reasons, of course.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:19 - ID#255217)
Nick@C, OXR
Got it this time, Nick. Was in a rush the first time and missed it. Thanks

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:20 - ID#330175)
JIN(younger brother)..................I echo what Carl just said
Thanks for keeping us 'Westerners' alerted to what is going on in your part of the world!!!----I also haven't seen the Titanic~~~~

The Hatt
(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:21 - ID#294232)
Japan up 525pts/Gold up $.45
Gold will have to make a move one way or another and my guess is that we will see it breakout to the upside. It will be very interesting if we break the $300.00 level with enough conviction that a new support is created. If so I believe we are well on our way to $325.00! USA GOLD made mention of rising lease rates and Kitco shows declining lease rates. What am I missing? All comments appreciated........

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:22 - ID#20748)
Moi should telephone Suharto before Hashimoto reaches Indonesia.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:24 - ID#20748)
My posts
are really not off subject, because political uncertainties are very bullish for gold.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:26 - ID#227290)
Persecuting Minorities
To all:

I've been out with the other white, Anglo-Saxon, protestants in the county persecuting minorities all afternoon and seemed to have missed a great deal of racial action right here on Kitco.
I'm asked frequently why I persecute minorities so fervantly. And I always answer that so many folks say that me and my people are so terrible in the way we treat others, and I don't want those poor minorities to be liars.
Go gold!!!

The Preacher

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:29 - ID#224363)
How much lower can it go...
I think it is quite apparent that the influencing the price of gold is not currently within the domain of the common man. It is a job best left to Central Banks and large funds. And I must admitthey are doing a mighty fine job of it. RememberBuy Low and Sell High

Will gold go lower ? I think it could very well go lower without a major change in sentiment. Not that many years ago an ounce of gold could be had for $35. In 1998 dollars what would that $35 be worth ? What did it cost to mine an ounce of gold back then ? We hear of various per ounce production figures now that range from $100 to $300. Is it more or less profitable to mine gold now ?

Forget all the economic babble about fiat currencies, inflation, deflation, etc. Plain and simple - Gold has been used for monetary purposes for thousands of years. It will be continue to be used and once the shine wears off of our overheated equities market, some number of investors will go back to gold for at least a portion of their investment basket.

ANOTHER's oil for gold is interesting and quite possibly true but there is nothing new about what effectively amounts to as barter. Consider the North American indians trading beaver pelts and animal skins for European trinkets. Or the South American Indian trading gold for other European trinkets.

My point in all of this is"The value of an item is defined by the parties that trade it and right now, many of the people trading golddon't think too much of its value."

I invite any pollsters amongst us to ramdomly sample 1000 people for their views on the relative value of gold compared to: $US, Oil, Real Estate, Food, Bonds, etc.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:32 - ID#284255)
Govt intervention in the markets last October.
Add this one to Neophyte's article

Where there is lots of articles to read on such matters.

When the pyramid turns to a bubble.
There is only one thing to do.
Prop it up till the last moment.
Then watch out below.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:33 - ID#247273)
Impulse Response
Any move by gold will be very swift, as in an impulse response. This is a must because of the extremely well developed communications and trading networks now in operation. The ONLY way this will happen will be a quick, faster than your pro's can react, faster than a speeding silver bullet ( gold? ) . Technology changes everything, and response time is no exception, so the discourse from contributors here, such as Another, will bear out for these simple reasons. No warning, no possibility for the big boys to quash or control the upswing. Nature and Economics will make it so.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:35 - ID#31868)
PMF - the people TRADING GOLD know full well
its value. In many countries people would never take paper for gold. In the United States people have not only a short memory, but do not even know the Constituion under which they live. ( mozel, stop it! not now Cato! )

Coined gold and silver are the money of the land. Fiat Federal Reserve notes are not money, they are credit/debt contracts, no more, no less.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:36 - ID#252127)
Why didn't they announce this tomorrow.......friday the 13th
Trade deficit, foreign purchases of US stocks and treasuries.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:41 - ID#31868)
Meant to be offensive, uh huh.
The putz known as the Coward Erect called the economic meltdown in Asia a "glitch."

Hello, hello, Earth to the Coward Elect. And I still say if they toast the Sergeant Major, they ought to nail the Coward Elects member to the front door of the D.C. whorehouse he is renting. With a gold alloy nail.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:45 - ID#26793)
Moody's downgrades all of Russia

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:48 - ID#339265)
If ANOTHER is right about an impending upward move in Gold... will be owing to insider info on Buffett's PM announcements on Saturday. IMHO.

Thus Spake F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:48 - ID#217268)
Donald__A: Your hard work is very much appreciated. Thanks.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:48 - ID#26793)
Placer Dome news

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:51 - ID#26793)
Now we know why the Nikkei is up 525 points tonight.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:54 - ID#26793)
That would be nice. My guess was that he made a long term deal with Kodak for silver. I seem to recall he sits on their board??? Just a guess.

( Thanks Pyramid )

(Thu Mar 12 1998 21:59 - ID#26669)
Donald_A that was a REALLY cool website! Thanks!
Look at these two pics of Phoenician silver tetrachchms I found there! One is the goddess Nike and the other an eagle. A lot less baroque than our present day US coins IMHO...just simple, clean lines.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:00 - ID#7568)

Sorry not to have responded sooner, but it was a long day of meetings. I see that some have posted sites where the gold options are priced, however I didn't see any of the way out of the monies. For a reference, we just purchased an OTC option which expires 12/31/99 with a strike of 380. The option is American style and is exercisable against physical metal. These features of the option make it somewhat more valuable than a similarly dated ( dec99 comex expires 10/31/99 ) and struck Comex option. We paid $3.20 per ounce, an implied vol of between 11 - 12. Just to give you an example of the spread, we were quoted 2.60 - 3.20 as a composite from several dealers. I would not be surprised to see the Comex spread wider.

As Glenn has said, Comex options are available, they are just thinly traded. If someone from your brokerage house calls down to the floor they can get a market. I would not advise going down there with a market order. Instead, call for a price and then decide if it is OK. If so, then put the buy in with a limit of the offered price. Good luck.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:01 - ID#26793)
Now we know where our 18 billion IMF bailout is going; New York!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:02 - ID#247273)
The Japanese have been well trained by the Americans, and use of the press and media are no exceptions. They have learned, like the Americans that press releases and hype are often sufficient to evoke desired responses in the markets. Until proven wrong, these government tactics will continue to be applied with success.

Truth will out.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:05 - ID#152163)

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:06 - ID#228128)
Dwelling in the house of Chicken Changers
John Disney - Lets not forget high finance chicken strips, and zero coupon chicken. I believe also that McDonalds corporation has beat us all to this chicken thing. They of course are the dealing in the international chicken exchange currency - Chicken Nuggets.

farfel - I had to laugh at your analogy to the typical American household that demands two cars and a T.V. in every room. In America today mom and pop need two cars so that they can both shuffle off to work each day and TVs to keep the kiddies occupied so that they can collapse in exhaustion each night. I'm laughing not at you but because ironically I went to pick up a new truck for my employer today with a young man that I recently hired. I commented to him how times had changed. He with a college degree would have to work more than a year to pay for that truck while my father in the 60s could do the job on less than 4 months salary working in a foundry. Whats this got to do with gold? We should all keep in mind that although gold is valued in U.S. dollars, the standard of living has in the U.S. has been declining along with the value of the dollar for more than 30 years. This should be taken into consideration as we try to place a value on the metal and attempt to figure whether it is cheap or dear. Also, back in 1987 when gold was $500 per oz it took more than twice as many yen to purchase one U.S. dollar as it does today. It would take roughly 4 times as many Yen to buy an oz of gold back then as it does today. Gold is cheaper then most N. Americans think.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:07 - ID#339265)
TVX EARNINGS RELEASED....and it ain't good news... recently projected gold & silver hedge gains of $70 million...and only realized net gain of $40 million.

Also, TVX announcement of increased reserves is entirely dependent on problems in Greece being decisively resolved. Protesters are trying to shut down its operations there. That battle continues.

TVX needs gold to break decisively above 300 and silver to head decisively North in order to move into profitability.

Stock market will probably knock stock down slightly or let off a great big yawn of indifference IMHO.

Thus Spake F*, the Unpronounceable.

TVX Writes Down Non-Core Assets; Projects a One Third Increase in Production
and Doubling of Reserves in 1998

Thursday, March 12, 1998 06:43 PM

TORONTO, March 12 /CNW-PRN/ - TVX Gold Inc. announced a loss of US$49.8 million ( US$0.36 per share ) for the year
ended 31st December 1997, compared to a loss of US$86.0 million ( US$0.53 per share ) in 1996. Both years included asset
write downs, US$43.4 million in 1997 and US$94.7 million in 1996. Earnings from mining operations before write downs
improved to US$29.2 million from US$23.1 million in 1996, mainly as a result of lower cash operating costs.

TVX's share of 1997 production from its five joint ventures was on plan at 395,300 ounces of gold equivalent ( 318,300
ounces of gold and 5.1 million ounces of silver ) , seven per cent lower than the 424,500 ounces of gold equivalent ( 335,100
ounces of gold and 6.8 million ounces of silver ) produced in 1996. Total cash costs were seven per cent lower at US$223 per
ounce of gold equivalent sold, compared to US$239 in 1996.

Forecast production for 1998 is 530,000 ounces of gold equivalent ( 335,000 ounces of gold and 11 million ounces of silver ) ,
a one third increase over 1997. The high silver production will place TVX among the world's top three silver producers in both
1998 and 1999. The 1998 increase in gold equivalent production will result from mining the high-grade Chimberos silver
deposit near La Coipa in Chile; an increased ownership interest, better grades and a full year's expanded production from the
Brasilia mine in Brazil; and a full year's production from the new Musselwhite mine in Canada. Total cash costs in 1998 are
expected to be 10 per cent lower than in 1997 at US$200 an ounce of gold equivalent.

Metals prices realized in 1997 were US$398 per ounce for gold and US$5.44 for silver, better than average spot prices of
US$331 and US$4.90 due to the company's hedging program. Realized prices in 1996 were US$396 and US$5.24 per ounce
for gold and silver, respectively.

Cash flow from operations was US$24.5 million in 1997, versus US$35.6 million in the preceding year. The decrease was
mainly attributable to additional requirements for project working capital in 1997. Cash and total debt at year end 1997 were
US$50.7 million and US$151.9 million, respectively, net of Brazilian export financings utilized to arbitrage interest rates in

At the 1997 year end, proven and probable reserves increased by 15 per cent to 6.2 million ounces of gold equivalent ( 4.4
million ounces of gold and 99.8 million ounces of silver ) compared to 5.4 million ounces in 1996. The 1997 reserves are
based on projected long term prices of US$350 per ounce of gold and US$5.50 for silver, versus US$385 and US$5.30,
respectively, in 1996.

Total 1997 resources ( reserves plus measured, indicated and inferred resources ) of gold equivalent ounces were 25.0 million
( 22.5 million ounces of gold and 149.6 million ounces of silver ) . This total is about the same as 1996's total of 24.8 million
ounces after excluding 1996 resources of 1.9 million ounces relating to properties held for sale at that year end. These
properties, Mineral Hill in the United States, Casa Berardi in Canada and Pachicutza in Ecuador, have not been included in the
1997 resource.

Reserves are expected to double in 1998 when resources of over 6 million ounces of gold are upgraded to reserves at the
Olympias and Skouries development projects in Greece. The upgrade will occur following completion of project feasibility

Write downs in 1997 of US$43.4 million included mining property write downs of US$17.5 million relating to a provision for
the closure of Mineral Hill; non-operating property charges of US$18 million relating to Pachicutza and writing down mills
being held in inventory; and other expenses of US$7.8 million relating to reducing an investment in Valerie Gold to market
price. The 1996 write downs of US$94.7 million were to provide for placing two high- cost mines, Casa Berardi and Mineral
Hill, on care and maintenance when the properties were put up for sale.

Production levels at all five currently operating joint ventures were on or slightly better than plan for 1997, with the exception
of the Brasilia mine. A longer startup period than anticipated at Brasilia's new recovery plant resulted in a 10 per cent reduction
in planned production. The plant allows the different metallurgy of the B2 mineralization to be economically processed. The
upgrading of this mineralization and an increase in TVX's ownership from 33 to 49 per cent at year's end has resulted in an
increase in reserves of 950,000 ounces and in resources of 1.8 million ounces.

Three mines, La Coipa, Musselwhite and Crixas in Brazil, improved total cash costs by five to ten per cent compared to plan.
Musselwhite's ten per cent cost improvement is particularly commendable in its startup year, as is New Britannia's similar
improvement between 1997 and its startup year in 1996.

At year end 1997, TVX had a substantial hedge position for gold and silver, with an estimated mark-to-market value of
US$105 million. When silver prices increased in early February 1998 on the news that Warren Buffett's company, Berkshire
Hathaway Inc., held a large silver position, TVX monetized its gain on gold, and opened up its exposure to silver price
increases previously capped by call options. At the completion of this restructuring, the company realized a net gain of
approximately US$40 million. This gain is lower than that previously announced due to further costs in increasing the upside
participation for silver in 1998 and 1999 and reducing calls in subsequent years. Today, put options cover one million ounces
of gold at US$280 an ounce and 10 million ounces of silver at US$5.00. In the third quarter of 1997, the company also
realized a gain of US$13 million on its gold hedge position when it reduced the strike price relating to part of the position.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:09 - ID#26793)
Have you noticed that the recent die changes on the U.S. quarter make George Washington look like Louis Rukeyser? ( sp ) Those ancient coins are real works of art. When you think about the crude tools they had in those days the result is all the more impressive.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:12 - ID#347235)
@ AJ
You are right I have 37 at home and 13 on the way from an out of town source thay just havent arrived which may mean I dont own them yet.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:14 - ID#339265)
TVX...another ROYAL OAK???
How in God's name can a company project a $70 million dollar hedge gain just a few weeks ago...and then come forward and have the unmitigated gall to announce a mere realized gain of only $40 million?? ( Off target by 40%??? )

You talk about undermining credibility??


Thus Spake F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:20 - ID#252150)
Bullbeef@Earthquakes NIMBY
Since I live in Victoria I don't think that an earthquake here would be a great idea. Why not southern Cal. where the population is so much higher
& there is so much more infrastructure? Not that I wish anyone any harm.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:21 - ID#26793)
@Pmdhrh: They are talking about house price deflation in Australia too.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:21 - ID#26669)
Donald_A, Yes, you're right. that is weird, I hadn't noticed before.
Have you really looked at the goddess Liberty on $50 golden eagles? She looks really horse faced like Janet Reno in drag. I much prefer looking at ancient coins. No fancy computerized pantograph images there! Just some really steady work with hand gravers. I was surprised though how reasonable some of the prices were at that website. To hear the rare coin afficianados talk you'd expect them to keep going up forever, but they appear to level off after a few hundred years. ;^ )

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:21 - ID#411112)
Donald;old African saying,monkey see monkey do..the boys in Washington have for a long time
wanted to put SS into the market,it worked here Japan is just doing the same

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:21 - ID#252127)
Donald; What if Buffet owns some of the other reputed silver hoards in London

And will only sell to Kodak and hold the rest for investment purposes. Wonder what the WTO would say?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:24 - ID#153102)
The American people do not even know the Constitution under which they don't live, State or Federal. The band has been playing "Anything Goes" for so long, everything is gone.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:24 - ID#330175)
James...............How bout TRP today

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:25 - ID#26793)
Can the WTO control the actions of an individual? I thought it only could take a whack at a country that abused tariffs etc. I don't know much about the WTO.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:26 - ID#330175)
@ Retired Soldier
We should compare 'war stories' one of these days~~~~*go team gold*

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:27 - ID#252150)
Placer Dome@Rolling The Dice
The last time that they got involved with a jv in Russia, they walked away from it & a 30 mil deposit, which I don't think they ever got back.
Glad I don't own the stock & definitely would'nt buy it.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:31 - ID#31868)
Not now Cato!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:32 - ID#252150)
Ted@Good for you
How about MLT, which I'm short--down a whole dime.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:37 - ID#252127)

Through WTO members nations shots have been taken against 'a countries' record on Human Rights.

It would be something if Fuji Japan couldn't get silver and accused Buffet of unfair bussiness practice. Was just a thought.

In any event, I'm for silver and hope that we win one every now and then.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:38 - ID#344205)
The IRS reality
Results of a recent investigation, legally show:
1. The IRS was never created by Congess nor Presidential decree.
2. The IRS is an OFFSHORE TRUST, whose Benificiaries and Settlers are
3. The IRS, Secret Service, and BATF are one in the same.
4. It is not known exactly where your taxes go.
5. That income taxes are 100% voluntary to citizens of the United States.
The only exceptions are: Federal Employees, residents of Guam, Puerto
Rico, Virgin Islands, Washington D.C., and South Pacific
protectorates, and naval shipyard residents.
6. The Federal Reserve is an OFFSHORE TRUST, whose exact settlers and
benificiaries are unknown.
7. Only foreign investors in the U.S. are by law obligated to pay U.S.
income tax. What would THAT do to the bond market if it was
8. The BATF has jurisdiccion ONLY in Puerto Rico?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:39 - ID#284255)
Donald posted this earlier

``I think it imperative that we do it quickly. We live in a very dangerous world right now. Hopefully Asia and other things will not ignite,"
Rubin said during testimony to a House panel.

What does Rubin know that we don't?
What's the insider scoop on what's going on?
Surely Rubin's not a gloom and doomer?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:43 - ID#7568)

A few items crossed the wire today that seem germane to the inflation / deflation debate.

First, as has been noted by other posters, M3 tacked on another 21 billion dollars last week, bringing the three week total to a smokin' 44 billion. This kind of growth in the money supply is a harbinger of one thing, and it ain't deflation.

Second, the current account deficit for the US came in at a robust 166 billion dollars for 1997, with the final quarter weighing in at around 45 billion. The yearly figures were only surpassed by a few billion in that memorable year of 1987. The key part of the report, is that for the first time since the end of WWII, not only was the US trade account in deficit, but so was the investment side of the ledger. The interest paid on huge amounts of treasuries outstanding has finally overwhelmed the returns Americans have gotten from their investing abroad. The tie in to the inflation/deflation debate is through the value of the dollar. Since a very large part of the current low inflation environment can be traced to the dollars strength, any reversal of this state of affairs will tend to be inflationary. The question is, how long and to what depth will be foreigner's appetite for our financial assets, and at what price. Last year saw a huge chunk of US financial asset buying, by Europeans. This may well be tied to the impending EMU launch, as many do not wish to risk big piles of money on an untested monetary system. When this effect ceases to be an issue, there may be a large shortfall in treasury demand. Should the dollar begin to decline, the real possibility of a reinforcing cycle may come into play. Lower dollar, means declining returns for foreign investors, forcing liquidation, forcing a lower dollar.

Finally, I pointed out a few days back that the copper prices were firmer, despite the impending deflationary collapse. As I said at the time the sentiment remained extremely bearish even in the face of a fairly good bounce. Today, the bounce got bouncier by another near 4%. Another side to the commodity story which has not been told revolves around the destocking of SE Asia. As a result of the currency collapses and banking system freezeups, manufacturers have been unable to obtain letters of credit to finance inputs for production. Instead, all manner of stocks have been drawn down, and some liquidated for cash. It is not so much that manufacturing has come to a halt, but that the normal inflow of material has been stopped because of financing difficulties. Even though the economies of SE Asia are likely to be collectively in recession this year, many of the imported raw materials are used for products to be exported. These uses are likely to increase rather than decrease. While there is no doubt that commodity consumption will decline in this area, it is by no means heading to zero. Since the destocking cycle is near an end, it is likely that future consumption is going to once again draw on world inventories. This may partially explain the small to now medium sized turn around we are seeing in some of the base metals. The other macro factor effecting base metals consumption is a resurgence of European growth. The realtime economic data has been coming in consistently stronger than expected in France, Germany, Italy and England, the largest part of European growth.

The deflation story will someday be right, but not until we have a credit collapse that effects something really big. Even then the outcome might look more like SE Asia does today than anything resembling the 1930's. Southeast Asia was good sized, but not big enough to get the cart rolling down the hill. We are going to need much higher interest rates to get the next big credit sector to collapse.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:43 - ID#344205)
States that income taxes in the U.S. are voluntary, and how to legally "unvolunteer' yourself.
A fascinating read.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:45 - ID#252127)

Through WTO members; shots have been taken
against 'a countries' record on Human Rights.

It would be something if Fuji Japan couldn't get
silver and accused Buffet of unfair bussiness
practice. Was just a thought.

In any event, I'm for silver and hope that we win
one every now and then.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:46 - ID#153102)
@Tolerant1 You are right. Enough is Enough.
Adieu. I think an American with any knowledge and awareness is safer overseas than in America these days. John Disney is wise. I leave the forum to the warriors and their war stories, the serfs whom they gaurd and who feed them, and to the many fine posters on PM trading and current events. Cato, over and out.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:46 - ID#252127)

Through WTO members; shots have been taken
against 'a countries' record on Human Rights.

It would be something if Fuji Japan couldn't get
silver and accused Buffet of unfair bussiness
practice. Was just a thought.

In any event, I'm for silver and hope that we win
one every now and then.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:49 - ID#373403)
Who buys our debt.
Foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities set a record in 1997 of $163.1 billion, up from the previous record of $155.6 billion.

Public Debt
09/30/1997 $5,413,146,011,397.34
09/30/1996 $5,224,810,939,135.73

This means that U.S. citizens bought just $25 billion or 13.3% of our own overindulgence.

Just thought you might want to know.


(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:54 - ID#390249)
Placer Dome rolling the dice
James - I agree they are rolling the dice with this one. They lost $40 million in Russia a few years ago when the government walked away after Placer gave them the money. They have the Las Cristinas fiasco. They had serious environmental problems in the Philippines and Costa Rica. This is the last gold company I would invest in. If anyone is looking for a reputable gold company to invest in, check out Euro Nevada ( EN ) and Franco Nevada ( FN ) .

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:56 - ID#344308)

golden channel.....

which way will it break? the opposite of grains....

(Thu Mar 12 1998 22:58 - ID#330175)
James----don't 'short-change' yourself
MLT was down 15 cents ( TSE ) ----and Wilson of PDG is ( and always has been ) an idiot~~~~~near full moon ( where's Puetz? ) glistening off floating ice-bergs ( beautiful! )

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:00 - ID#252127)

DA makes good points for stronger base metal consumption. European recovery and greater exports from SEA of products that using copper, zinc, ect.
Didn't someone post an opinion of a $250 billion trade deficit for 1998.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:00 - ID#252127)

DA makes good points for stronger base metal consumption. European recovery and greater exports from SEA of products that using copper, zinc, ect.
Didn't someone post an opinion of a $250 billion trade deficit for 1998.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:00 - ID#330175)
Have you found ( and killed ) the robbers yet?

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:02 - ID#39971)
Castro's Gold
CBC Canada,eh,has a show on now about a company trying to find

the gold from the sunken gallions around Cuba.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:03 - ID#31868)
mozel, leave not, do not take away the lantern
that is your mind lest you leave us further in darkness. It is dark enough in America as it is. Do not become a speck of light on the horizon that we might wonder what is there, bewilderment need not be the word of tomorrow, today perhaps, while there is breath, there is hope.

Do not let a comedic quip get to you my friend. If all the Americans leave who will be left. You do not seem to be one who would give up, especially on matters meaningful. There are tens of millions of Americans that will not let the liars and dirtbags in the District of Columbia win out.

Sure, things might not be all swell, and rosy, but they will get worse, and then they will get better. It truly is a cycle, at present the cycle is dragging us through the bottom of the barrel that America can be. Eventually those of better spirit and will shall win out. Sort of like a musician playing a fine melody on a Trumpet, we just have to let open the spit valve and purge the bilge of the human bile.

No more , no less.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:07 - ID#288156)
ALERT!FT-Thur 3/12 Judy Shelton--A walk in Bretton Woods--GO GOLD!
Japan has raised the stakes in discussions of how to overhaul the global financial system by suggesting it might be time to return to fixed exchange rates.

It would be easy to dismiss the proposal for this new Bretton Woods agreement advanced by Eisuke Sakakibara, Japans vice-minister of finance for international affairs, as a nostalgic impulse. Or worse, an attempt to use currency disorder as the scapegoat for the endemic structural problems in Asian economies. However, the rush to discredit the notion that the global economy would be better served by an orderly international monetary system than by todays free-for-all reflects just how profoundly thinking on this subject has changed.

The essential function of money is to serve as a unit of account. Individuals should be able to rely on money and the price signals it conveys; daily personal decisions about whether to buy or sell, consume or invest, depend on sound money for their validity.

Keynesian principles developed earlier this century, though, provided academic justification for adjusting the purpose of money from serving the needs of people to accomplishing the objectives of government. Budget deficits, along with the ensuing inflation, were deemed useful to stimulate the economy. Money became a vital tool of domestic policy. ...

...Similarly, on the international front; the idea that a nation could gain a trade advantage in foreign markets by compromising the value of its money was seemingly disproved by the disastrous beggar-thy-neighbour episode of the 1930s. Indeed, the compelling force behind the 1944 monetary conference at Bretton Woods was the resolve of participating nations to prevent currency wars ( and real wars ) by establishing a stable international monetary foundation to support free trade.

It thus seems peculiar that the IMF--which came into being at that very conference--today poses institutional resistance to fixed exchange rate mechanisms rather than providing support.

...Despite the indictments launched against its lending practices, insider dealing and corrupt government, Asias problem is fundamentally the result of currency collapse. The crony capitalism argument has been overworked; even the most solid loan is apt to turn sour when the unit of account that denominates the value of the underlying asset has decreased 70 per cent while payment is still required under the original terms. No wonder Indonesia is seeking to stabilize the rupiah as a priority in its economic reform programme -- in defiance of the IMF.

The crux of the dispute: should money preserve its own integrity as a standard of value or be used as a flexible instrument of economic policymaking? A disciplined fixed-rate currency mechanism ensures that the value of money is determined by the rule of law, not of men.

...Of course, how the exchange rates are fixed is critical to the viability of any new monetary regime. Under the Bretton Woods system, the currencies of the participating nations could be conveyed into the dollar at a fixed rate and foreign central banks could convert the dollar into gold at a fixed rate. But important social, political and economic changes since Bretton Woods need to be considered in constructing a new system.

The primacy of the individual has asserted itself in the technology-driven new economy with the implication that private citizens should be ABLE TO CONVERT NATIONAL CURRENCIES INTO THE RESERVE ASSET. the reserve asset for any new monetary system should not be the dollar.


The chances of world leaders considering a new Bretton Woods agreement are better than they might appear initially. For Asia such a move could bring about needed stability. For Europe, the benefits would accrue to its single currency in terms of instant credibility. For the US, already basking in conditions of low inflation, the payoff is continuity.

For the world, access to sound money is reward in itself.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:09 - ID#339265)
@LOCK & LODE...RE: your 16:36 and your deflation theory...
...take a good look at D.A.'s extremely astute 22:43... says it all...

And I would add the following...

...the real reason the deflation monster ( as opposed to inflation or stagflation monsters ) is being propounded avidly by Wall Street and various key government figures is this:

...they know the stock market is ready to tumble hard at any moment...however, in order to discourage fearful investors from putting their monies in PM's ( and they would if they thought a severe inflation/stagflation were around the corner ) , they are trying to encourage them to place their money in treasury, municipal, and corporate bonds...the ONLY place to be in a severe deflation.

Once again, let me restate the following: before this country sees a severe deflation, you can be pretty certain that we will go through a period of neo-stagflation or even sectoral hyper-inflations ( in essential services and select commodities ) ...and that is tremendous for gold and silver investment.

Do not be conned by Wall Street or leading Treasury and Fed figures...
investments in bonds are as doomed as equities investments when the SH_T soon hits the fan!!!

Thus Spake F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:09 - ID#269191)
I agree with your post. I was one who thought the Asian crisis would
lead to deflation. However, I've changed my mind. I now think we
will go the way of the Asian economies--inflationary depression.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:09 - ID#253153)
Placer Dome
Great bargain at this price $12.75 us. Remember, they will produce 600k oz at about $85/oz at the Pipe Line deposit in Nevada. Over all production costs in 1998 will be less then $200 /oz 9 from all mines.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:12 - ID#238422)
James \ Your 22:27
I don't really care, just for more accurate info:

Placer Dome planned JV with Kazakhstan, not Russia.
Placer Dome did manage to return major part of their
initial investment, I recall about 25-27 mil.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:17 - ID#339265)
@D.A....I think you 22:43 is brilliant analysis... should disseminate it onto various mainstream forums and chat is too compelling to leave it sit on this somewhat incestuous web-site.


Thus Spake F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:18 - ID#31876)
Fuel Cells Will Use 500,000oz Platinum/yr by 2010

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:19 - ID#253153)
Farfel, I disagree with your inflation/deflation theory
The way I see it, deflation has started and will intensify until it will exhaust itself. There is nothing any politician or central banker can do about it. Once a trend is in motion it can't be reversed until it ends. I expect interest to continue to decline and predict 2% treasuries in the US
within the next 2 years. Gold will begin to rise in April , and the stock market will top within the next 30-60 days.

John Disney__A
(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:21 - ID#24135)
for tsclaw
Dbn-deep is still digesting Blyvvor and Buffels and
have no cash to take anyone over. Randfontein is part
of JCI which has been surprised to still have western
areas. LOTS of money will be needed to develop Wes
Areas. They wont try to take Harmony.
Harmony is in my view the best mining vehicle of them
all - because of management and a massive resource
base. I think we have a $50 stock ( in any kind of a
gold market ) selling for $3
For Mozel ..
I cant believe what I just read ..

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:25 - ID#238295)
Farfel: Although I do not agree with all your posts, you are one of the best and most prolific contributors to this site. Keep it coming!

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:25 - ID#344205)
Federal Reserve Bank is actually NO MORE FEDERAL than Federal Express !

Apparantly, not one cent of U.S. tax dollars ever reaches the Treasury?!

PH in LA
(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:25 - ID#225408)
Overheard in cyberspace

I hope the exchange between you and Tolerant does not refer to a decision on your part to leave this forum. Your posts are among the truly enlightened here and would be sorely missed.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:25 - ID#288156)
Carl--No, there are two of us who haven't seen 'Titanic'!
That ( project ) sounds PROMISING! I've got a board meeting this weekend, out-of-town, so nothing I can contribute for a bit.
Go get 'em Tiger!

John Disney__A
(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:29 - ID#24135)
Wait a minute, 223
For 223
Do you mean Janet Reno ISN'T in drag ????

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:32 - ID#344308)

retired soldier@1824----

look lenny, tell squiggy that my re-tort had nothing to do
the handle 'jewboy.' it is the blatant ( admitted ) baiting of
everyone here, by you....i've never ever, stepped-on anyone for
their race or religon.

you should be happy that the hand that laid the trap, was only
bitten, and not bitten-off.......look at you, hiking your skirt
on the very first date.......shame...shame...shame.!;\

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:33 - ID#253153)
Farfel, I forgot to mention something else
Runaway inflation in the US is possible only if federal employees
get paid in cash instead of checks. So far federal employees are paid with checks.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:35 - ID#344205)
IRS = Puerto Rico Treasury?
Now why do you think we have all this sudden heated talk again about making a full fledged state out of Puerto Rico?

How about..the IRS isin reality.just an extension of the Treasury Department of Puerto Rico!


(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:36 - ID#344205)
IRS = Puerto Rico Treasury
See info at:

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:48 - ID#253153)
Gold Price Rise
In a severe deflation only gold and silver rise,all other commodities sink and interest rates decline because there is no business expansion and no demand for money. The rise in the price of gold and silver within the next few years will astound all of you. It will rise because of political chaos,defaults,devaluations,currencies reneg and primarily for safety. Money will be diverted from all other investments to gold and silver to find safety.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:50 - ID#339212)
Sad to see some heavy weights leaving the forum

First PETE, then TZADEAK, now MOZEL, what is going on?

You guys have been excellent contributors, why leave? Intimidated by some new comers? This forum needs you. Come back and ignore those who do not deserve your attention.

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:57 - ID#267298)
There have been numerous postings on this site
questioning just who "ANOTHER" is. Well, I think
I know. "ANOTHER" is just exactly that. That is
He/She is just another Goldbug hoping to Hell that
the POG will rise but not really having any idea
whatsoever what the Hell it will actually do. I will
go on record right now and speculate that come
March 20th there is a greater probability that Gold
will be trading in the range of 280/oz - 290/oz
than 320/oz - 360/oz. I hope to Christ that I'm wrong
and "ANOTHER" is right, but I just don't believe it.
If I'm wrong I will be the first to post a retraction and
give full credit to "ANOTHER".

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:57 - ID#42365)
Hey all you bubbas... I think i feel it a commin..
kinda like all those quakes out in cali.. i feel tha gold in muh hand start a quiverin, and i feel a golden drunk heh passin over me... here we go, soon gold fiends... soon...

(Thu Mar 12 1998 23:59 - ID#39845)
Oh dear more complexity
Friday 13 March, 1998 ( 3:43pm AEDT )

The entire North Korean nation has been put on wartime
mobilisation by the government.

The announcement was in a government statement
distributed to diplomats and foreigners in North Korea and
obtained by Reuters newsagency.

It was presented to foreigners by a senior foreign ministry
official who said it meant that the wartime system and order
applies not only to the regular armed forces, but also to the
national economy and overall social life.

The foreigners were told that during the mobilisation period,
Pyongyang would limit entry to the country to North
Korean nationals and that only foreign residents with
official business would be allowed to travel outside the

It was not immediately clear whether North Korea had
declared martial law or if the mobilisation was connected to
Pyongyang's recent grave warnings of worsening food

Return to the World News Menu

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 1998 Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Fri Mar 13 16:00:00 1998 ( AEDT )

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