Monday, March 16, 1998
Events in China Indicate Rumors Of Deal With U.S. May
Turn Out To Be True
For believers in financial
conspiracy theories, events in China last week offered some evidence that
one major rumor could turn out to be fact.On January 30, upon returning from a trip to Asia, Ian Harwood, London-based global economist for Dresdner Kleinwort Benson, flatly told
clients that China and the U.S. have cut a critical deal. It will benefit
not only both parties but also the entire global financial system. ( On Friday, Harwood said this arrangement was "suggested" to him in Washington and "confirmed" in Beijing, but he can't name names. ) Specifically, China, which late in 1994 began a round of competitive
currency devaluations in the Asia-Pacific region, would refrain from debasing the renminbi again. Thus would be avoided a second downward spiral, one that likely would hurt all financial markets.In return, Washington would do two things. First, it would help China fulfill one of its fondest wishes -- to join the World Trade Organization ( successor to GATT ) and thereby upgrade its status among global economic powers. Second, the U.S. would pressure Japan finally to resolve its
banking crisis and to stimulate domestic demand. In 1997, Harwood noted, 25% of China's exports went to Japan.Jump to last Monday. Shi Guangsheng, China's vice minister for foreign trade and economic cooperation, said in Beijing that the impact of Asian economic and financial turmoil on China's trade "cannot be underestimated." He added that China will seek new export markets in the U.S. and Europe, but ruled out a devaluation.Also last Monday, Long Yongtu, China's chief WTO negotiator, clearly linked China's WTO bid with its currency decision. He said Beijing wants to accelerate discussions on its entry into WTO. Further, he hoped Beijing's pledge not to devalue would enhance its image in the international community and contribute to its WTO entry, Kyodo news service reported. Whether this decision helps China's bid, Long noted, "will be determined by the [WTO] members' own attitudes." He went on to say that China's currency move likely will mean slower export and investment growth, but "we are prepared to pay a cost."Subsequently, Long reiterated China's previously stated demand that it be allowed to join WTO before Taiwan does, and that Taiwan must join as a Chinese territory, not as a sovereign nation.Geopolitics and private promises aside, Richard Fisher, deputy U.S. Trade Representative, in his first visit to China since being named to the post, last Wednesday criticized Beijing's latest proposals on industrial and agricultural tariffs as "inadequate." Again according to Kyodo News, he added: "We don't have a basis to assess their seriousness for proceeding toward WTO accession until we have firmly in mind, on a ine-by-line basis, what their proposals are for tariffs on industrial goods."As for Taiwan joining WTO before China, Fisher said that Taiwan, as a "separate customs territorial," is allowed to proceed with its WTO bid on its own merits, separate from China.When U.S. President Bill Clinton makes a state visit to Beijing, perhaps in late June, these issues undoubtedly will be discussed frankly with Chinese President Jiang Zemin.Meanwhile, Dresdner Kleinwort Benson's Harwood opines that "China wants to be taken responsibly, be seen as a good neighbor economically and as people fit to sit at the top table." He adds that not until midyear can China properly assess the damage to its economy by the continuing Asian crisis. In other words, not until well after the summit at the earliest is
China likely to unleash the dogs of devaluation.
Safe Journey
Anyway, I can understand your need to get away if only from a psychic point of view. In the short few weeks I lurked before posting I had, with many others, been ground through intense emotional extremes with the shifts in height and breadth of topic. The conclusion I arrived at even before I first keyed into Kitco1 is that the object of our discussions -- gold and such -- are really just distillations of what we care about most deeply, the welfare of ourselves and loved ones. All this discussion is a release -- a defining of our rationale, if you will -- for the passionate decisions we have made by which we'll individually thrive or die.
We've each got a lot on the line. And to those of you who've been in PMs this past year -- watching daily, hourly maybe -- my hat's off to you. I think the downward volitility of gold especially would have sent me to the nut farm by now.
As farfel says, "It's here." We're watching, thread by thread, this thing rip apart at the seems. In the macro view if it all comes down in the space of a few years, the axe has fallen quickly. But in the micro view, watching moment by moment, we see it's here. It's just not on top of us yet.
Mozel, the level of intensity you've maintained for as far back as I or anyone may read of past posts -- I don't know how you did it, man. You must be made of steel. And neither I nor anyone else can blame you for needing to get away from it for awhile.
Looking forward to your return.
Respectfully,
Dean W. Jones
Fresno, California, USA
( Spies: I'm in the book. )
"What I am going to say now will be difficult for some to accept. But, it is just the truth. America was founded by white, Christian people for themselves. This is not unsupported opinion. The documentary evidence is
overwhelming. Look for yourself. It ranges from judicial opinion of the U.S. and State Supreme Courts, to passages in the U.S. and State Constitutions, to all immigration Acts except those most recent."
Mozel is right, or at least half right, about this. Despite its many virtues, America was indeed founded by white people for themselves. It was hardly founded for the purpose of treating all races, including the Native Americans from whom the continent was stolen and the black slaves packed in from Africa, justly. But the founding fathers also appealed to certain principles that they regarded as self-evident--e.g., "All men ( humans ) are created equal"--and these principles, as they came to be applied more and more consistently, fortunately undermined over time the very racist institutions that Mozel evidently wants to perpetuate.
-Tom
Every segment of society has been down these roads. In the south the rebel flag is about to be outlawed, schools that were male now have to
let in women breaking 100,s of years of tradition. Every segment, every group is sure that they have been mistreated more than anyone . Hogwash, let your accomplishments speak for themselves, quit your griping and move on. If you were not born with a silverspoon in your mouth, than forge one. NO ONE OWES YOU ANYTHING!! BLAST AWAY, only goes to prove what I'm saying.
For deep mystical philosophy try the local library.
No, I dont support everything what Mozel says, however, nobody has hold of "absolute knowledge of right and wrong", and the truth can be found only after discussing all information, disagreement, but free exchange of information about "elephant in the dark". I just question if this is the right forum to do it.
We like to hear what supports our beliefs and tend to vigorously reject what goes against it. However, is our belief the one which is based on "truth and only the truth?"
How soon we forget. We ( meaning citizens of the USA ) like to talk about this great nation of the US based on democratic principles, and forget that this nation was born through violent rape and genocide of native nations which already lived on this continent for centuries. Talk about democracy, right to freedom, and "all men created equal". I guess these ideas apply only when they support the "stronger one"
My friends, its not so bad that somebody reminds you of not so pleasant facts. So dont go and call on Bart "please, stop it, he has no rights" because today its Mozel, but tomorrow it may be you. The truth can not be found through political correctness, nor any great nation can survive the quest for freedom through enforcing PC and suppressing the freedom of speech.
PLEASE GENTLEMEN --
The correct spelling is *doo-doo.*
Otherwise, your references to an extinct flightless bird are incomprehensible.
Respectfully,
dj
I would never approach any woman at work in a way that might be considered sexual -- as that is not professional. All individuals -- male or female are expected to work because of their intellectual skills -- not other talents. BC has violated this rule of ethics.
I would never take advantage of another who has asked for assistance in some major problem linked with work -- an illness in the famiily, financial crisis, etc. BC has violated this rule also.
The latter is an even more serious moral infraction than the former, as it reveals a serious character flaw. How could BC be thinking of sexual matters when someone like Kathleen Willey is desperately asking for help?
My guess is that BC's popularity will continue for a time, just as it did with Nixon. But -- this is the high water mark in his popularity. The 60minutes program shows that the major news media are now willing to address the truth about BC, no matter how unpleasant it is. And -- the media are crucial to a president's popularity -- as they can make or break a president -- or anyone for that matter. We can expect that investigative activity on all of the xxxgates will heat up. And, just how long will the Democrats put up with this, when they start thinking about the next presidential election? Womens rights in the workplace? Elect a BC 'clone'? Women make up nearly 1/2 of the popular vote.
I will be happy just to confirm a bottom.
Them's fightn words -- for BC lawyer R. Bennett. I get a kick out of the fact that R. Bennett is William Benett's brother -- the fellow who was the 'Drug Czar' and wrote that little book of fables. Oh well, I guess the Bennett family is entitled to have one 'black sheep' in their midst.
Interesting though that the 'black sheep' of the Bennett family is BC's lawyer. What about the backgrounds of the other lawyers that work for BC? I find it amazing that Kenneth Starr is still in one piece, given the hight powered lawyers on the other side.
OldSoldier: I thought I was replying to you in my last post. Sorry for the confusion! Any opinions about North Korea? It must be getting warm enough for troops to move -- smoke screen or the real thing?
All of you should look carefully at foreign currency investments as an alternative to equities, or commodities. I was amazed to learn that most international banks offer investments in all the major currencies -- CD's, etc.
If you are good at determining long term trends in currencies -- not too hard for a gold bug -- you can do much better than the typical 20% per year in the stock market.
What you do is put some assets into an international bank, borrow a weak currency on margin -- up to 80%, and buy the currency you think will go up. If you are correct about buying the currency that goes up, and borrowing one that goes down -- over a period of several years -- you can make alot of money without much of the stress generated by investing in the markets right now.
To understand some of the activities of the LBMA, consider gold a cheap currency with low interest loan rates that is steadily going down vs the dollar. So -- investors borrow gold on up to 80% margin on the international markets, and buy US dollars. Works great as long as the price of gold ( in dollars ) is going down. But -- just wait till the tables are turned! Then US dollars will be sold, and gold will be bought.
And many large firms ( CB's? ) may wind up on the wrong side of the fence.
If the Japanese Yen , or the EURO strengthens in the near future relative to the dollar, more US dollars will be sold, too!
A strong dollar feeds on itself, but so does a weak dollar. Likewise for gold.
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