Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 00:03 - ID#339265)
GOLD/SILVER PESSIMISM HIGHEST EVER... doubt, more and more gold/silver bugs are throwing in the towel and defecting to DOW investments and platinum/palladium plays.

Tonight's forum...the least stimulating forum I have seen since first posting on this site. Only a handful of regular posters are here tonight.

Either this is the bottom or else we about to witness complete capitulation in the gold/silver markets and a plunge through the floors.

Again, it is interesting to contrast this dismal atmosphere with the galloping BULL mania developing in the platinum/palladium markets.
These metals are definitely moving synchronously with the DOW and NASDAQ.
By virtue of their vertical uptrend, you might almost believe that there is a real shortage of platinum/palladium in Russia...rather than the fabricated shortage by way of delayed deliveries. When those PM's bust, it will be as dramatic as a DOW collapse.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 00:04 - ID#257136)
tolerant1 SIR YESSIR. Received LOUD and CLEAR!
I'll try to make a call maana. Thanks fer the offer! ( :+}
Been rainin' here for several days ( 2, to be precise ) and a lot of folks, me included, are becoming depresssed.
Just a bunch of wimps who need good clear days very often. El Nio has done us no favors here in the former land of the koward erect!
Guess i'll hold my fcx. I had not planned to sell any Freeeport stuff except the IGL and if possible, the options on IGL for I believe it is 2002. I think it might be a good time to shed them.The stocks later. Maybe late this year or early to mid 99. The site I posted was for srock quotes. SFR is fslvf on that site.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 00:07 - ID#31868)
Reason was I switched over to IE 4.0 earlier this evening. I must say now that I have had time to disect it, it runs pretty darn good. I lambasted it a week or so ago, and, well, hmmmmmmm, mostly my fault on the install.

Glad ya got the mail, look forward to hearing from ya.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 00:13 - ID#195112)
Tolerant1 re:ssc
Thanks very much for the advice regarding FSR and the golden eagle site. Much appreciated.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 00:14 - ID#31868)
most welcome

(Tue Mar 17 1998 00:19 - ID#42365)
!!! lets go gold... its commn soon..
"i want me gold" from the movie Leprechaun!!!!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 00:35 - ID#31868)
Forget the markets for a moment, could someone please
explain how these people stand up and discuss how the budget has been balanced. I mean, I know the answer, they are liars, but the fact that they get away with it, is at this point pathetic. Simply pathetic.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 00:40 - ID#253228)
Homestake Mines stock is inching up to the edge of a cliff from which it will fall dramatically until late May. And it won't be back up to today's level for the rest of the year. This is the projection I posted weeks ago and which subsequent calculations and market action confirm. This should be evident to all when it breaks below its low of January. The action should begin within two weeks.

I believe money which cannot be created out of thin air is honest money. Gold and silver meet that criteria. Temporarily, the masses have been forced to use this counterfeit money and will be happy to do so until they suffer beyond tolerance.
However, the money monopoly scam is not widely understood any more than the government protection racket that so many embrace, even among Kitco numbers.

I am interested in preserving myself and those I love. Since accumulation of wealth is a means to that end, I do not like to lose money, but rather like making it, so I am neither a bull or a bear. I don't care which way the market goes as long as I am on the correct side. The masses now do not see the value of precious metals in its roll as money. Certainly is has not been a good store of value since the big runup in the late 1970's early 1980's. It is basically not accepted as a medium of exchange, certainly not officially.

On the subject of cycles: I see some posts that talk about "a cycle." This is meaningless. There are hundreds of cycles operating simultaneously. Cycles are addative, so the market price you see at any given moment is the net result of all these hundreds of oscillations plus a long term trend plus small random unpredictable movements. Unless you have a method to measure the size and position of each individual cycle then you cannot even come close to a reasonable projection. If you are looking a charts and visually drawing in an up/down type movement that appears to be regular you don't stand a chance of being other than randomly correct, and that won't do much toward making money.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 00:58 - ID#57232)
Seeing the Future, dimly.
All: So what will we see next?

Mexico and Venezuela wiped out by cheap $10 oil?

Dow 10000 secondary to foreign 'flight to safety' and the baby boomers?

North Korea invades South Korea for no apparent reason?

China devalues?

Japan deflates on the first phase of 'big bang' April 1?

BC fights impeachment, having been dumped by his own party?

The US dollar falls as international investors realize that M3 is growing too rapidly, with an ElNino-induced commodity price surge?

The European central banks go on a gold-buying binge, while keeping the price of gold rigidly controlled at a $295+-2 /oz trading range? Gold liquidity dries up unexpectedly due to this action, with a sudden rise in price, ending the gold bear.

I don't know what will happen. I think we should be on the alert for more deflationary worning signs in South America and Europe. My biggest concern is the collapse of the South American economies from the side effects of cheap oil. If we have no more financial collapses for a while, inflation will return to the US -- with a gold bull, or a drop in the US dollar as the likely first sign of trouble.

Keep your powder dry ( at least most of it ) .

(Tue Mar 17 1998 01:05 - ID#253228)
Commodity price deflation
I like books, and occasionally find an old one that has some interesting thoughts. Some noted investor in the early 1900's published a work that essentially looked at markets in relationship to long term trend. He also looked at the pattern between major markets, stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities. In particular he looked at the timing relationships between these markets.

It certainly is not uncommom for lead/lag relationships or even inverse relationships. It should be clear that in the 1970's money was not flowing into the stock or bond markets like it was into the commodity and real estate markets.

Today it is clear that the stock and bond markets are in favor. It is also clear to me that the stock market is not that high in relationship to its trend line. Before the 1987 break, it reached about 40% above trend. While the market is much higher in dollar terms today, it is no where near 40% above trend. The trend is rising. I realize that by some measures like price/earnings and yield stocks seem high, but you need to factor in the simple idea that stocks are the discounted value of future cash flows from dividends and sales proceeds. The lower the interest rate, the more present value that is produced by a given future cash flow, so that alone can support higher prices.

I saw someone post the idea that the trend is your friend. In that case the DOW probably can continue its pace upward into the summer.

An interesting side note; my elder daughter and her husband just returned from a week at the Hilton on Hawaii. In conversation with some of the locals they were told that tourist business is off about 30% because at least 40% of their total business is from Asia. The normal $400+ room rate was discounted to $200. Supply/demand. Downward price pressure.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 01:10 - ID#31868)
JTF - hmmmmmmmmmm
Problem with your post, almost any of those items could happen. I believe they are all currently in various stages which frightens me. Even a collapse would take time due to the huge numbers the markets are dealing with.

One of the things that disturbs me greatly is the fact that the media here is not discussing the suffering in Asia due to the currency fires burning over there. What those people must think of us, or well, better put, a large portion of us. Our fearless leader calling Asia's economic woes a glitch. What a jerk.

America is totally unprepared to face what is coming, and I do truly pity those people that think the government will be able to handle things.

The lowering of oil prices and the havoc that will wreak on Mexico and others to the south will be devastating. Devastating to say the least.

Keep your powder dry, strong advice, I hope many heed those words.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 01:11 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother John,

Would you say your little brother Oris
is too optimistic if he says tonight that
POG will be in the range of $330-345 in April?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 01:11 - ID#57232)
Newt Gingrich thinks about impeachment
All: The Kathleen Willey counterattack is the release of correspondence between KW and the president, apparently after the purported incident. Again the approach is to attack the credibility of the witness. Have any members of the media noticed how all women who claimed to have known BC intimately have been discredited with virtually the same attack? And, BC has later admitted to liasons with women he discredited, such as Jennifer Flowers.

Eventually the dirt slinging splatters back on the face of the accuser.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 01:13 - ID#339265)
March 17, 1998

Market Place: Companies Release Bad News, Dow
Just Goes Higher


NEW YORK -- They call it the "confessional season," the period when corporate
America begins to warn Wall Street of the troubles that lie ahead.

It is a time near the end of each quarter when companies begin to leak out their bad news,
acknowledging slowing sales growth at home, declining sales abroad, backlogs in
inventory and cyclical downturns in business.

Walt Disney, Nike, Intel and Compaq Computer have all made dire first-quarter forecasts,
causing Wall Street stock analysts to lower their estimates not just for these companies but
for the market over all. And these analysts, according to First Call Inc., which tracks
earnings estimates, now expect profits at the nation's biggest companies to grow less than
2 percent in the first quarter, the slowest pace of the decade.

But attention is beginning to shift to the end of the year. Will the coming slowdown be just
a blip or something more sustained? Expectations for the second half of the year remain
quite robust from stock analysts, an optimistic group by nature. By their count, profits
could show tremendous gains, up 17 percent in the fourth quarter.

Perhaps this explains why the stock market has rocketed to record highs in the face of
weakening results. But if these forecasts prove overly optimistic, as some vocal market
strategists suggest, investors may be in for a sharp selloff in the latter part of the year.

"We think there's going to be a big squeeze on profits this year," said Cynthia Latta, an
economist at DRI/McGraw-Hill. "We're calling it a big turning-point year."

After six years of mostly double-digit profit gains, the case for a longer lasting slowdown
is growing. Labor costs are rising, companies are grappling with the year 2000 problem,
and the economic squeeze in Asia is only beginning to take its toll on American business.
And after years of restructuring and productivity improvements, companies appear to be
running out of ways to expand their profit margins.

Even the rosy stock analysts now accept that these factors have conspired against
companies early this year. First Call said that estimates have been "falling like a stone" in
recent weeks. IBES International Inc., another earnings watcher, said that estimates
suffered the largest downward revision last month in more than five years. Since Jan. 9,
estimates of first-quarter earnings growth have plummeted from 10 percent for the stocks
in the Standard & Poor's 500 to 2 percent, the lowest since 1991.

"We haven't seen anything like this since the recession of 1990," said James E. Glassman,
a senior economist at Chase Securities. "Throughout the 90's we've been spoiled; we've
only seen double-digit growth. So this year could be sobering."

The same people racing to ratchet down their early year forecasts -- Wall Street analysts --
are undaunted, forecasting a pickup in growth in the second half that will lead to a 10
percent profit gain for the entire year. But many economists and market strategists, who
look at the big economic forces instead of the prospects for individual companies, are
forecasting a more sizable slowdown, well below last year's 11 percent growth rate.

The most optimistic among this group forecast 8 percent gains in corporate profits; the less
optimistic see gains of under 5 percent.

Corporate outlooks start with the economy, which grew at a 3.8 percent clip last year -- the
fastest pace in a decade. Blue-chip profits jumped nearly three times as much.

So the question is: can blue-chip companies produce solid gains in the eighth year of an
economic cycle, and extend the longest continuous period of profit growth on record? "I
don't think so," Ms. Latta said.

The financial crisis in Asia -- seen last October as the prime threat to the great bull market
of the 1990s -- is a big factor, she says, but just one among many.

For instance, the unemployment rate in the United States is 4.6 percent, the lowest in 24
years, and as corporations struggle to find skilled workers and retain their best employees,
pressure mounts for higher wages and more training programs. That means corporate costs
could rise and cut into earnings growth.

"We've got rising labor costs, rising fringe benefit costs and fierce competition, and so
margins are getting squeezed," Ms. Latta said. "We're probably not going to see as much
of a productivity gain this year."

There are also currency problems emanating from a strong dollar and a widening trade
deficit because of cheaper imports from Asia. Eastman Kodak, for instance, said that
profits declined by 38 percent in the fourth quarter, partly because of the strong dollar.

If the stock market's recent strength is any indication of investor sentiment, many are
dismissing the earnings warnings and cautionary tales, perhaps because they've heard them
so many times during the great bull market of the '90s.

The Dow Jones industrial average -- after a record three consecutive years with gains of 20
percent or more -- is up 10 percent this year. And the S&P 500, a broader gauge, is up 11

Such gains have pushed stock valuations into record territory. The price-to-earnings ratio
on S&P 500 stocks has reached 26, meaning that investors are paying about $26 for every
$1 earned by those companies in the last year.

Share prices generally reflect future earnings prospects instead of past gains. But even on
that basis, stocks are trading at 20 times future earnings, at or near a historic high.

"The only way you can support these kinds of ratios is to see profit margins expand," said
Steven Leuthold, an analyst at the Leuthold Group in Minneapolis. "And I don't think
we're going to see that."

The threats to the market are several. Byron R. Wien, the United States investment
strategist at Morgan Stanley, Dean Witter and a long-time bear, expects a big economic
growth spurt will come in the second part of the year, pushing up interest rates and
knocking stocks for a loss.

Others, pointing to Asia's continuing economic woes, expect the economy to go in the
opposite direction.

"Those who think this is a one-quarter phenomenon in Asia are just not in touch with
reality," Leuthold said. "I've talked to a number of people in Asia and they say that in the
U.S. we're just not cognizant of the devastation in Asia."

Of course, there are those, like Abby Joseph Cohen, the co-chairwoman of the investment
policy committee at Goldman, Sachs & Co., who expect the slowdown in Asia to temper a
robust economy in America and eliminate the need for the Federal Reserve to raise interest
rates, a positive for stocks.

Profits may moderate, she says, but the U.S. economy is like a "supertanker," not the
fastest or flashiest ship on the sea, but because of a well-balanced economy and
well-managed companies, perhaps the sturdiest.

To some strategists, the earnings numbers in recent years seem almost too good to be true.
Skeptics say that companies have managed their earnings, through such things as special
charges and mergers, to the point where creative accounting can no longer help them out.

Barton Biggs, the erudite global strategist at Morgan Stanley, likens the American stock
market to the Titanic, and he has written repeatedly about how companies distort their
earnings through accounting sleight of hand. "It is well-known that the S&P 500 sells at
the highest valuations of earnings in history," Biggs wrote recently. "But it is less well
recognized that the index's earnings are overstated.

"For example, a company may take care of a mistake with a one-time writeoff, in which it
also buries other expenses that are to come. In effect, future earnings are enhanced."

James S. Chanos, president of Kynikos Associates, a New York firm that specializes in
betting on which stocks are poised to fall, agrees. "Earnings quality has gone downhill,"
he said. "The longer the bull market has lasted, the lower the quality of earnings companies
have reported. We're seeing companies play games in write-offs.

"Companies know they have to show bottom-line earnings growth," Chanos added. "So
by hook or by crook they'll do it."

The S&P earnings game is becoming so difficult to understand -- in part because of the
recent changes in how companies report earnings -- that Ms. Latta at DRI/McGraw-Hill
says she does not trust her own firm's projections for S&P 500 growth in 1998.

She does, however, trust her projections for earnings growth for all U.S. corporations, as
listed in statistics compiled by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Those figures have steadily fallen, from 16 percent in 1995 to about 8 percent in 1997, she
said. Her projection for 1998 is just 1.2 percent.

If earnings slow sharply, that could depress share prices, which have vastly outpaced
earnings growth since the 1980's.

Although earnings growth and share prices tend to rise equally over time, they alternate
leadership roles, according to a Federal Reserve study released last year. And for a long
stretch, since 1982, share prices have been the leader, with an average annual stock gain of
12 percent, compared with an average earnings gain of 8 percent.

"The implication is that we're in the next 15-year period, when earnings will do better than
the index," said Robert Farrell, a longtime strategist at Merrill Lynch. "And if that's the
case, we can't afford to have earnings disappoint."

Still, shares of many companies are soaring. Even companies that have warned of trouble
ahead -- or had their earnings estimates slashed in the last month -- have done well.

Disney and Intel, for instance, saw sharp declines after issuing earnings warnings, but
remain strong this year, with shares of each up 11 percent. Sears, Roebuck warned of a 50
percent decline in first quarter profits because of difficulty in its credit card business, but its
shares are up 30 percent. A month ago, Nike warned of profit trouble, caused by sales
declines and inventory buildups in Asia and the United States. Still, shares are up 15.5

A growing array of economists and market historians are baffled.

"It's like all news is good news," said Farrell of Merrill Lynch. I've spent my life saying
the market's right, but the sustainability of this is questionable if earnings are going to
disappoint beyond a quarter or two."

(Tue Mar 17 1998 01:17 - ID#31868)
Jeil - your post has much truth in it.
However, the billions upon billions of dollars that have been lost in Asia, the harsh realities of the currency devaluations and Japan, coming up very shortly on a tremendous economic upheavel on the first of April, well, plenty of that money that is in the US stock market will have to go home to help pay these bills.

The gyrations of world markets has only begun and I do not believe that it can last into the summer. The economic plates are shifting and the damage done to markets will be abrupt and much like an earthquake. IMHO

(Tue Mar 17 1998 01:24 - ID#57232)
G'Nite all!
All: I suspect that we will see gold at a steady price near where it is for some time -- we will have our bottom. But -- the CB's and the pros need time to move in. Perhaps the CB's will loan more gold temporarily so that big short positions can be unwound. The Europeans will want to buy gold for the Euro, so they cannot afford to let the US dollar drop until they have enough gold to launch the Euro as a currency with at least as much gold backing as the US dollar. We know that Germany and France will not allow anyone else to have their own gold, despite their commitment to the EURO.

IMHO, the emergence of a currency firmly backed by gold will come first from SEAsia, and not from Europe.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 01:25 - ID#31868)
farfel - that article says it all - finally, today
a member of my family moved a large portion of their money out of their mutual fund in equities to the gold fund held by the same group. It has taken roughly 6 months. I have not badgered them, merely taken articles and various well written posts from kitco and handed them to them to read.

I do my best not to sound like a doom-sayer, but it is difficult when all they own is paper in equities.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 01:26 - ID#253228)
I am very confident in my work on Homestake Mines. I sporatically have done a set of calculations on the S&P500 which have not worked out well. So, my financial activities are limited to trading that which I think will make me money. My comments on the stock market in general were more meant as a caution to those who are looking for some imminent sharp panic out of the stock market. I think the greater likelyhood is a blowoff top. I really don't like to see anyone lose money ( unless of course they are on the opposite side of my trade ) .

(Tue Mar 17 1998 01:32 - ID#339265)
Platinum down TWELVE DOLLARS overseas.

Palladium down FIVE DOLLARS.

They're falling like rocks.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 01:38 - ID#257148)
ketchup -- I'll not linger tonite

we just turned out clocks back. Autumn definitely here ( hear ) El nio is over, the rains begin..... ( shoulda closed my sunroof, eh Ted? )

Serious GOLD TYPE Question ( REMEMBER THEM, GOldbugs? )

can noone help me with the value and spending power of one ( gold ) sovereign in 1903?

You've not seen a korean pig? try this

here some cool gold trinkets for the Betties

or, for the intrepid out-door types ( RJ )


We're not in Kansas anymore.

Next issue of

-----Antipodean Contrarian Newsletter ----

has been delayed due to colour-strippers taking a week off in mourning for D'Arcy Clay, an undoubted and unrecognised genius who penned a recent NZ Classic Song ( I kid you not, this was great ) called "Jesus, I was evil." We all remember Jimi Hendrix & Morrison and Janis J--- I shan't go on.. There's one hell of a band in the next life, eh?

aurator, remembering....those who have passed this way

(Tue Mar 17 1998 01:41 - ID#253228)
Robert Prechter, et. al.
Elliot wave theorist seem to be more wrong than correct. In spite of that I like the group out of Gainsville, GA and appreciate Bob Prechter's views on mass psychology. When one looks at markets from that point of view then it is apparent that reason does not always work. There may be too much reason among the Kitco posters.

I personally think that forces outside of the market places themselves drive the human actions in the markets, and those forces are as little understood today as were microbes in the dark ages.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 01:44 - ID#257148)

As one bookworm to ANOTHER

Please have a look through your old books for

( 1 ) the CB gold holdings from 1900-1950, and for
( 2 ) "value" of a sov in 1903

(Tue Mar 17 1998 02:01 - ID#31868)
jeil - I wish more people had your sober attitude in looking
at the markets. So many I know think things will keep going up.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 02:51 - ID#26144)
Does anyone else find this a little creepy?
Oil is WAY down, palladium is ( was? ) WAY up, gold is flat, BC's
situation is looking worse by the minute, the "blue chips" are roaring
supported by investors' belief that "it will never end", Asia is in
turmoil and half the posters at Kitco are missing - even John Disney
hasn't posted lately - this is downright SPOOKY!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 02:51 - ID#393224)
You can call me Al Nino
From the Canberra Times:

El Nino has been blamed for a lot of ugly weather. So has Al Nino.

Alfonso Nino, who is listed in the phone book as Al Nino, has fielded calls from people who for some reason think a weather phenomenon would have a telephone. Mr. Nino, 74, was awakened at 2 am recently by an enraged, foul-mouthed woman complaining about the weather. Mr. Nino, a retired navy man, replied in suitable nautical language and hung up.

"It's happened at least a half-dozen times," he said. "It's always something like, 'Why are you doing this?' And I say, "Well, I didn't really have nothing else to do. I thought maybe it would be kinda fun.'"

Only in California!!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 03:08 - ID#255151)
GOLD According to ANOTHER

We got about 4 more days for Gold to get to $320-$360 U.S. by Friday March 20, 1998.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 03:27 - ID#26144)
Dear Auric ...
I am relieved that someone is still around tonight -- as you look to the left at the platinum and palladium graphs, don't things look a tad
volatile ... I'm sure I've never seen anything quite like it! ( up $11, down $10.5, up$10, down $10... ) The full moon is past, so how do you explain it??? Perhaps Kitco has a virus.....

(Tue Mar 17 1998 03:32 - ID#255151)

I can't explain Palladium. Can't explain Gold neither. It OUGHT to be going up!

John Disney__A
(Tue Mar 17 1998 04:26 - ID#24135)
I think its a good idea
for Brother Oris
I have no argument with your suggestion that
gold will go to 340 or 360 in the next few months.
I dont think you're being optimistic at all ..
I think you're being quite reasonable..

(Tue Mar 17 1998 04:35 - ID#215379)
There can be but one reason that the "free markets" ( with tongue in cheek ) act contrary to fundementals. Thats because of man-ipulation.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 04:40 - ID#39845)
Palliative care. You get what you ask for shtoopid.
Tuesday 17 March, 1998 ( 6:49pm AEDT )

Japan's economic planning chief says the Japanese economy
is now in a "very severe" condition.

The director-general of the Economic Planning Agency,
Koji Omi, says the situation is very sensitive and Japan
might record negative growth for the financial year to the
end of March.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan, in its monthly report, says
there's little chance of an imminent recovery in domestic

However, the Bank's incoming central bank chief has
vowed to steady his country's rocky financial system and
stabilise the yen.

Masaru Hayami, a senior business leader who spent a large
part of his career at the Bank of Japan, will be formally
appointed the Bank's governor on Friday.

Mr Hayami said he would do all he can to win back public
trust in the central bank.

Return to the World News Menu

plus from the Asia Pacific Region in Indonesian, Chinese and Tok Pisin

 1998 Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Tue Mar 17 19:00:01 1998 ( AEDT )

(Tue Mar 17 1998 04:49 - ID#393224)
"Where have all the flowers gone...?"
G'day. Maybe all of these odd occurrences mean something BIG is about to happen???


1 ) Drop of 3000-4000 in the Dow in a week?
2 ) Gold up $50 in a week?
3 ) ANOTHER turns out to be Auracious?
4 ) Gold down $50 in a week? ( Who said that!!--tar and feather him!!! )
5 ) BC holds press conference and 'tells all'? ( Pigs grow wings and fly around the White House!! )
6 ) Ted becomes a Jehovah's Witness?
7 ) Mike Sheller gives up astrology and becomes a priest? ( Still waitin' fer that goddam copper rhino, mate!! )
8 ) Announcement that the Euro will be 50% gold backed?
9 ) HC holds press conference and 'tells all' about BC?
10 ) Donald turns out to be a 14 y.o. computer whiz-kid playing hookie?
11 ) Farfel the unpronouncable turns out to be Madeleine Albright?
12 ) Gold zooms, Kitcoites all make an absolute fortune and decide to have a Kitco-conference at the Honolulu Hilton in Dec. 98?
13 ) European Central Banks announce a 'Gold Buy-Back Plan'.
14 ) Sharefin buys CALL options on the S & P ?
15 ) JTF makes a short post? Luv ya mate!!
16 ) OldGold says "Gold will never recover and is headed for $150?"
17 ) Hmmm Hep Me Money Hmmmmmmm turns out to be Alan Greenspan?
18 ) LGB turns out to be Bill Gates?
19 ) ? turns out to be Xaviera Hollander?
20 ) Auric turns out to be AJ Foyt?
21 ) Earl turns out to be an 8 y.o. kid with a big finger?
22 ) APH,DA,RJ,Preacher,Panda turn out to be blackjack dealers at Vegas?
23 ) Tolerant 1 turns out to be Camdessus?
24 ) Haggis turns out to be Billy Connolly?
25 ) 6-Pak turns out to be the president of Anheuser-Busch? ( Where's my goddam spell checker??? )
26 ) Reify turns out to be Fred?
28 ) John Disney turns out to be A.A.Aziz?
29 ) Cherokee turns out to be Tecumseh reincarnated?
30 ) Silverado turns out to be the Prez of the World Gold Council?

And if you are silly enough to have read this far---

31 ) Nick@C gives up drinking Victoria Bitter and stops making stupid posts?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 05:21 - ID#252127)

Maybe Japan has had a bit of speculation, but seriously ask yourself, is the US really beeter off.

Are US Bank's such pillars of conservative money?
Has the US Congress ever shown any resolve in spending?
Does Japan flaggerently destroy its own citizens to earn a profit?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 05:26 - ID#252127)

Maybe Japan has had a bit of speculation, but
seriously ask yourself, is the US really any better off.

Are US Bank's such pillars of conservative money?
Has the US Congress ever shown any resolve in
Does Japan flaggerently destroy its own citizens
to earn a profit?
Do you really believe in the tooth fairy

(Tue Mar 17 1998 05:46 - ID#185448)
Herrschaftsseiten! This site appears to be a collection of manic-depressives not seen in a long time. Even Barts frames refuse to work. Reading the last 12 hours of posts is similar to the farewell letter of a broken hearted teenager. Aint there no pride left, fellow Gold-Bugs? What about that talking bout gonades of stainless steel ? If Gold goes down another 100 bucks, who cares - lets take it like real men/women.
Correct me, when Im wrong: But didnt ANOTHER say that the purchase should be taken as a sign that Gold should return to the 320-360 range, rather than saying it will return in fact?
Waiting for the "sign" ANOTHER mentioned as there is nothing else to do as far as AU is concerned. Also curious, if ANOTHER turns out to be the real Sheik of Kitco or just Another poster with a bad timing. Would prefer the first option- for me, you and the resurrection of a true goldbugism by confidence and faith.

Go Gold, I know you will.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 06:01 - ID#39845)
Info on amounts forward sold by producers. Good article.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 06:08 - ID#224149)
Who needs pepper?
Porky Pig a cartoon right! Not on the Kitco page. I find it very distasteful posting Pig Recipes on the Kitco GOLD page, as this is probably insulting to most greedy investors. I am vegetarian and love all animals including the human kind. Stop immediately or my cannibalistic voodoo pygmy will have you for lunch.
Palladium and the Russians seem to have a nice relationship now but then most Russian mobsters eventually end up in Siberia or get a windowed office on Wall Street with rest of the boiler room impoverished sapsuckers. To the media most should yell GIVE ME BACK MY LIFE Send the Government back to the people ----- Get rid of the Golden Calf of Wall street -----Close down the dead meat fast food outlets ------Put the real criminals in jail ----Overdose the drug pushers -----Away for some carrot juice and celery.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 06:31 - ID#39845)
re your cannibalistic voodoo pygmy.
Has he got a brother called Harvey, cause Harvey told me your
voodoo pygmy a long way from home, and he left a bit of a mess
over here. The family want to square off with him. They are
really upset. Looks like you got a plane full of voodoo pygmies
heading your way. Big fat mother voodoo pygmy said she is
definately going and she just dont like makin a pig of
herself. Looks like your the lucky Poorboys.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 06:35 - ID#26793)
Bank of Japan say economy remains stagnant with downward pressures increasing

(Tue Mar 17 1998 06:39 - ID#26793)
China to overhaul stagnant industry and ailing banks

(Tue Mar 17 1998 06:45 - ID#26793)
21 Japanese banks need 1.82 trillion yen of public money before April 1st.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 06:50 - ID#26793)
Several years of poor economic conditions have created Mexican crime wave

(Tue Mar 17 1998 06:54 - ID#26793)
Prices of oil company bonds plummet along with oil prices

Mike Sheller
(Tue Mar 17 1998 07:06 - ID#347447)
Are you wearing leather? ( no, that is not an indecent inquiry, I am merely tweaking your vegetarian proclivities ( ;- ) )

Mike Sheller
(Tue Mar 17 1998 07:13 - ID#347447)
Mike Sheller kwits kitco!
I have endured the snipings of the anti-astrological lobby, suffered the slings of the No metaphysics conspiracy, and been attacked viciously by the supply/demand demented funnymental analysts. I have even had to endure ersatz astrological escapades by the likes of Steve Puetz and other bizarre eclipse worshippers. But this recent not so veiled castigation of my Saigon Pork Chop recipe, perhaps the most sacred and valuable thing I could give my brothers and sisters here at kitco, is the last straw ( of lemon grass, tied around each porchop before grilling ) . I am leaving kitco, and I won't be back until I feel that the posts here more clearly and civilly reflect the high purpose of this forum as I have come to envision it. Good Bye.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 07:22 - ID#26793)
@Mike Sheller
Can I use your vacated bandwidth for my Thousand Island dressing recipe?

Mike Sheller
(Tue Mar 17 1998 07:25 - ID#347447)
The impassioned posts concerning my leaving kitco, and the clear openess to recipes in my absence, has impelled me to return. Hopefully the tone, and taste of this forum will continue to elevate itself, and become done to a golden turn. It's good to be back friends. Don't crowd around me. It's's ok...

(Tue Mar 17 1998 07:26 - ID#185448)
There are some, who would miss the two of you: The astrological as well as the gastrological. Me for instance. Please stay.

To all: When Mike Sheller goes this could indicate 2 things:
Either Gold has definitely died or the bear has definitely died.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 07:32 - ID#289357)
Mike Sheller

Aw, come on now, Mike - you are a valuable asset to this forum. We NEED and APPRECIATE your perspectives, even though I know that you take a lot of heat sometime for them. As to the Saigon recipes - sorry, but you're welcome to them - I'm afraid that I had enough to last me several lifetimes ( as a shavetail 1st Lieutenant in the field artillery ) , but nevertheless, I ask you to please reconsider leaving the forum - WE NEEDYA HERE!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 07:38 - ID#289357)
COMEX breakdown 3/16

321,832 Registered

156,258 Elligible

478,090 Total net change -296


36,260,817 Registered

54,242,908 Elligible

90,503,725 Total net change -1,036,542

(Tue Mar 17 1998 07:40 - ID#35767)
REMEBER IN THE LAST TWO MONTHS OF THE GOLD BULL IT GAINED ALMOST 50% IN TWO MONTHS. DOW 15000 BY JULY. It really isd beginning to feel like we are entering the tulip stage. Thoughts?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 07:43 - ID#258427)
MIKE SHELLER...You are one more cool..
sophisticated, enlightened and witty DUDE!!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 07:46 - ID#289357)
Bill D

Mornin' Mr. Gold Panner! ( :- ) )

(Tue Mar 17 1998 07:48 - ID#330175)
ROR........................and Tullips
Did YOU miss the entire 15 year BULL-MARKET?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 07:52 - ID#330175)
Bravo 'fellow-veggie'~~~~~~~~~~~~down with the 'meat-eaters'!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 07:52 - ID#286199)
Warren Buffett says stocks may not be overvalued. Oil is headed for single digits. The birds are singing, the sun is shining. "Blue skys..."

(Tue Mar 17 1998 08:04 - ID#330175)
Nick@C.(4:49)......................& Aurator on pins& needles
Nick: I am a Jehovah'a WitLESS~~~~~~~~Aurator: Go acupuncture!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 08:05 - ID#26669)
aurator, thanks for the photos
What I meant to say was I've not seen a Korean pig bar in real life. I've only seen pics. From the looks of it the other posters are well on their way to founding a new religion, that which worships pigs in lemongrass. So they might make a ready market for the pig bars. IMHO

Such a strange world. We'll see soon if it is so strange that gold and stocks will rise together in the final blowoff. IMHO

(Tue Mar 17 1998 08:09 - ID#289357)

Spent some time last evening talking with my brother-in-law ( 30-ish ) from the left coast about the stock market. Gott Im Himmel! They have totally, completely, brainwashed these newbies!!!

He even mentioned that he was going to write his Congressman about writing new legislation for Fed insurance to protect against losses in 401 ( k ) accounts. These people really think the stock market is their new bank, with guaranteed returns of 20% per annum....Methinks a very BIG SURPRISE coming, yes?

P.S. he couldn't answer my question about who's gonna pay for the insurance, and who would fund the payoff when the market drops about $3 trillion in value.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 08:10 - ID#330175)
Studio.R.....................& 'Crude'
Bad-day yesterday,huh ( put away the razor blades bro ) ---*go gold*--as ANOTHER ( with all his 'inside-info' ( har har har ) is runnin out of time,even though the excuse-makers are NOW tryin ta put another 'take' on his latest BS~~~~~~~~~~~Like Hepcat said months ago----Another probably lives in one of those grimy apartment complexes on the way to Newark airport....

(Tue Mar 17 1998 08:16 - ID#330175)
*go gold*--------*go Sonics*

(Tue Mar 17 1998 08:26 - ID#348169)
@Speed and Inflation and Deflation
We know that Spring is here, but what has that got to do with the price of oil? ;- ) Let's face it, if oil gets down to single digits again, its just one more sign that this whole economic scene is going to implode when the madness ends. How can Oil ( Gold, Silver, Wheat, Sugar, Cattle etc. ) be worth only about the same as they were in 1979 and yet cars, buildings, land, stock prices, etc. cost 5-10 times more. The dollar has devalued at least five fold from 20 years ago in purchasing power, EXCEPT in relationship to hard assets? Somethings going to give sometime soon, next 1-3 years, and I'm betting we will see inflation and deflation simultaneously. Deflation in the value of overvalued assets ( stocks ) and inflation in the cost of undervalued assets ( pretty well the entire commodity complex ) .

I sincerely hope that this can happen in a series of stages, ( something like the way Gold went in a step-ladder, downward progression over the last year ) , because, if not, we may all be wishing for these 'good old days' to come back for the next 20 years.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 08:35 - ID#36156)
Mike Sheller: Thanks for starting my day with a hearty laugh!
May the stars be with you.

HenryD - Go GOLD ( today, hoy, heute? )

(Tue Mar 17 1998 08:39 - ID#238295)
I've said it before and will say it AGAIN -- the ongoing blowoff in the Dow was predicted by Armstrong ( Princeton Economics ) last fall. He argued then that the Dow might approach 10,000 by spring 1998. But he also predicted this would be followed by a 40% drop.

Armstrong also has opined that gold will make new all time highs early in the next century.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 08:44 - ID#330175)
to OLD gold
How many years have YOU been predicting the 'blow-off stage' will soon end?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 08:44 - ID#36156)
FYI... OPEC Home Page

(Tue Mar 17 1998 08:44 - ID#238295)
Mooney: Very thoughtful post on the possibility of simultaneous deflation of financial assets and inflation of commodity prices.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 08:44 - ID#258427)
WELL....There goes the neighborhood....Silver
down to 5.90 ...minus .18...

Mike Sheller
(Tue Mar 17 1998 08:46 - ID#347447)
lemon grassss...very pretty

(Tue Mar 17 1998 08:46 - ID#222231)
Remember Guys-UP is DOWN and DOWN is UP. If you use this contrarian strategy, you'll all be millionaires within a short time. Just think back a little, how far ahead would you be today if you followed this policy? ( I'M GOING TO THE WOODSHED. )

(Tue Mar 17 1998 08:46 - ID#286199)
"Blue skys smilin at me...
SilverBaron: Cradle to grave, my govt takes care of me,...what me worry? I don't need insurance man, I have stocks!

Mooney: Efficiency in production and greed have sent commodities lower. Oil producers are pumping for all they are worth. Gotta run get some of that 91 cent gasoline!

Seriously, gold will rally, but not today. The sky is just too blue.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 08:47 - ID#398105)
We are in "No Mans Land"..........patience is a virtue

Bob M
(Tue Mar 17 1998 08:49 - ID#26059)
Stock Blowoff
Been hearing a prediction of stock blowoff since 1987...the stock market will not decline substantially until the US is challenged militarily by someone ( and I mean a real military threat such as during the early stages of WW2 ) ..then the dollar will decline and the paper game that the US has conceived and made the rules for, will be rattled..then gold will have a chance to recover

Mike Sheller
(Tue Mar 17 1998 08:56 - ID#347447)
Jumpin' Jupiter
Jupiter conjuncts US Currency's Venus in the 8th house ( April 2, 1792, NY ) next week. This could bring a blip in the US Dollar which may clue in the next move. I wont hazard a guess, but lean toward perhaps a short blowoff of a week or two, and then a reversal. But dollar watchers MAY get something to look at in the next few days and next week. Great day all. I have to go earn some of those dollars now.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 09:02 - ID#251166)
@ Mooney*

I'm inclined to think *these* are the good old days -- even as gold flatlines. ( There are still a few of us trying to secure our positions. It seems incredible to me that I can buy in for the same price I bought in last month. ) These days, despite our rising impatience with the lack of movement in POG, are still days of the order of what might be called "normal," -- that is, days in which the old premises still *seem* to apply. When the stuff hits the fan -- and it will, and hard -- that broad or narrow circle of friends and associates about us will suffer. Bad. And one would have to be a Neandrathal not to suffer with them. True, our own immediate families should weather well -- due to our foresight. But the pain we feel for those beyond our inner circle -- pain is pain to whom love binds -- will hurt even so, especially by our helplessness as we watch them go down.

I'm in no hurry to see it come down, though it will as inevitably as night follows day. I am, however, urgently fixing my position -- blessed by every flatlined day 'til then.



(Tue Mar 17 1998 09:12 - ID#318123)
Its good to be back on my favorite chat group it was a semi cold winter but not quite as cold as the last one '97. I can't believe the market is
sky rocketing and commodities are falling down to earth ( crash and burn )
Catch this a small company who just ( yesterday ) put out a news release
of discovering 2 350 metre natural gas zones on its 100% owned property it went up a whooping .1 cent Cdn. $1.04 to $1.05 on 71K I know some of the respondents here use their internal computer micro chips to keep warm in the winter butt this just goes to show how fickled the average investor and investment analysts are getting, pass me the chips and blips pardner!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 09:16 - ID#26144)
Re:Stock Blowoff
A family member of mine owns a VERY large number of shares in Safeway,
and although he considers a stock "blowoff" is a possibility, his
attitude is that "the stock willgo back up again afterwards", so no
worries .. . . . do you encounter this attitude ( the mutual fund
mindset ) in others?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 09:18 - ID#411259)
..... Whooooooooooooooooooooooooooosh .....

At last I can let out the breath I've been holding for a week or more. They are finally probing the bottom of this whole silver thingie. A flock-o-stops waits just below 5.90 and the dance has begun. I would be more comfortable seeing a break down to 5.60 before I add any silver.

Bought 1000 one oz Platinum Eagles yesterday near the low. The down is done, look for continued and sustained gains in platinum, while palladium writhes in the death throes of a soon to be obsolete commodity.

Gold could use a vacation. Could we take up a collection or something? Maybe a couple weeks in the sun would return some of the color to our faded friend. Who knows? Maybe gold could even get lucky, and return rested and full of vigor. For now, I'm staying away.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 09:20 - ID#25588)
Silver ( May ) has finally broken down under 6.00 this morning. Ideally a low should be put in today or tomorrow morning. My wave 2 correction target of 5.50 is dead ahead. Buy May silver between 5.60-5.50. If you have the resources don't use a stop today...if not use a 5.40 stop.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 09:25 - ID#348129)
I said weeks ago I could see silver down to 5.55, looks like it's coming.
Gold is frozen like a dear in the headlights, nothing until Europe comes clean and declares their position.
Just one thing, why are you negative on palladium ?

Spud Master
(Tue Mar 17 1998 09:35 - ID#273112)
"Damn the DOW, full speed ahead!"
my word. I go away for a few weeks and this happens. hmmm.

After reviewing the latest Clinton duplicitious BS, with full American press complicity, and the Dow's surges up, can one help but think we are
indeed toast? Some historian will look back upon this uncoupling of morality, this endemic perversion of the American mind effected over
the last fifty years by the manipulative, venal liberals/press/television as the end of the American dream.

The US Dollar is the yoke of slavery around the necks of the peoples of the world.

As I have said before, the multitude sitting at the casino table called the Dow are only 'virtually wealthy' - they can not realize that wealth in reality.

The first significant mutual fund redemptions, starting with the retirement of the first Baby Boomers, prior to 2010, will cause wholesale implosion.

We can't all be wealthy - "those" in power who enjoy power won't abide it. It would make them unspecial. Ordinary. Think about it.

Convert from slavery-based US dollars, to honest gold.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 09:44 - ID#410194)
Gold and Silver news
The BOE mentionned that no decision has been made yet by the ECB regarding gold reserves and that no decision should be expected until after the bank is formed on June 1st which delays what should be a it negative to the market.

Open interest is about to reach the same level as we have seen around last January lows but the volume is severely lacking.

Any upside in Gold at this moment is even hard to imagine except for a few technical bounces.

Traders on the floor talk about 285 and even 280 price levels again!

As for Silver, the important $6 psychological barrier has been broken this morning and let's see if the market will be able to get back above soon.

Deliveries picked up at 232 contracts yesterday but we wonder if that level is still not too low for a rally to develop. Still, it's the equivalent of about 1.1 million ounces that still have to be taken out of the warehouses.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 09:45 - ID#25784)
The glass is half full or it is half empty. The big action this week should be Thursday and Friday. IE reverse. I'm not watching Silver that closely, but Gold should make that 285 and then BUY!

I'm trying to remember the name or date of that posting last week about the tidal and lunar 18.7 year cycles. It was a physicist. Those cycles are certainly valid but each market has its own personal one. Gold's came in Jan 12. S&P's is the weekend of May 8--11. That'll be a BIG TOP.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 09:49 - ID#410194)
@George S. Cole
Could you share with us YOUR "forecast capabilities" regarding Gold and the Stock Market from let's say.... 1997 thru a few weeks ago.


Date: Mon Mar 16 1998 18:04
OLD GOLD ( forcasts ) ID#238295:
ALL; GLENN has mad many good forecasts, but he has erred enormously at times. Back in late 1996 when oil was around $24, he was talking about $30+ in 1997. Well it was all downhill from there to the current level of around $13. So do not be mesmerized by his bearish call on gold.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 10:01 - ID#410194)
Strong economy?
February housing numbers were released this morning and the February "housing starts" rose 6% to 1.636 ( ! ) million units which is the highest since November 1987. February housing permits rose to 1.625 million units, up 8.5%!

These impressive reports keep coming in and yet, interest rates are tough to raise given the still fragile state of parts of Asia.

Odds are very high that rampant inflation is brewing while we can't even see it and ounce it will be out in the open, it will be so late that it will be very difficult to contain.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 10:08 - ID#401460)
Housing Up 6%

Well we are close to the blow off. Housing has historically driven the market, and especially today - that is all the US makes anymore.

Home prices are rising. How long can AG let this continue?

Industrial production is slowing, who is going to buy all of these houses in 8 months? Therefore, AG doesn't have to raise rates, the economy will again control itself.

Everyone now has a home, secured by investment equity in the stock markets - or is it the other way?

Credit card delinquency down.

No inflation, everyone has a job.
Oil @ $12 Gasoline @ $1 not $0.75
Grains down Cereal @ x2 in cost by volume.
What a wonderful world.

I guess I better get back into the markets. DOW 10000 just ahead, maybe DOW 11000 by June? What the heh! Lets join the lemmings, they are getting rich while we sit here looking at this stupid Gold chart run flat or down.

We either have inflation or deflation - or both; NO we have nothing. Asia is OK, no affect; Clinton OK no affect; CPQ, INTC, Iomega, etc reporting lower earnings no affect - GO FIGURE.

I can't figure this thing out anymore.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 10:13 - ID#401460)

Yes, but we will never know it.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 10:21 - ID#289357)
Can't figure this thing out ANYMORE?? Heck - I've been mystified since at least '95.......The so-called 'Boom' in the economy has missed most of the people I know, except for their holdings in the stock market. As for inflation, somone ( can't remember who exactly ) said that inflation wouldn't raise its ugly head again, until the Fed has given up on controlling it. Looking at the recent money supply numbers, and now the new housing numbers, maybe they have done just that.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 10:29 - ID#410194)
Yeah, you're probably right.

Only here at Kitco we'll know it.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 10:30 - ID#401460)
US buying US bonds ?

Here is part of the aswer!
Tuesday March 17, 9:01 am Eastern Time

U.S. Treasuries flat to higher despite strong data

*U.S. Treasuries flat to higher, unshaken by strong hsg data. *Feb housing starts up 6.0 pct, grew at 1.636 mln
annual rate. *Central bank buying seen over past few days lends support. *Players unwilling sellers, await
industrial prod, cap use. *Industrial production, capacity use seen as market friendly.

"Central Bank buying seen over the past few weeks lends support"

When ever a country has to buy its own bonds; I call that monetizing the debt.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 10:32 - ID#244242)
Spreading Confusion
It seems from what I have read recently that more and more experts, analysts, commentators, plain folks, investors, etc. seem to be at a loss to make sense of the goings-on in the markets in particular and the financial system in general. Some are more-or-less just "going with the flow" and hoping they can jump ship at the right time to avoid getting creamed. Others seem to be heavily into self-delusion and/or rationalization. A few keep doing the same old thing out of habit because that is the least disconcerting and mentally challenging thing for them to do. The action in Gold and Silver reminds me of the saying: "The nail that sticks up will get hammered back down."-Buffet's moves notwithstanding. There is just so much STUFF going on right now that God only knows how it will all play out. Once all your debts are paid off, a bag of 90% silver coins, a month or more's worth of houshold goods and most importantly, some real close friends and family within a day's walk could come in real handy in a year or two. Just my one cent worth.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 10:37 - ID#401460)
Perception of what is reality.

When a tree falls in the forest and no one reports it does anyone know that it has fallen?

pretty soon a cereal box will be the size of a pack of cigarettes.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 10:39 - ID#14480)
Highrise (Monetizing Debt)
This was my question of last evening. I truly believe the Fed is buying
60% of the treasury debt. This is naked inflating.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 10:49 - ID#289357)

Not a bad plan, but you might want to add a couple bikes to the mix, and about an equal dollar amount of gold to the silver.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 11:03 - ID#401460)
Perception of Justice and Truth?

Off subject but shows the state of affairs in country.

Did you hear where the Sargent Major got off with a hand slap for sexually harassing those women?

Did you hear where he is now sueing one of the ladies for slander etc. million plus?

I guess the women's rights org. should be pleased - this has set the womens movement back 30 years. There will be few women coming forward now - I would guess that all of the president's accusers are shaking in their high heels right now.

It does appear that the US court system has broken down. OJ now this guy. The Prez will never come to justice.

" the sex issue is none of the public's business and is not affecting the President's job - 2:1 pole just in" CNBC just reported. Thats 66% of the people - by the way the pole was conducted by the White House 37 lawyers - the poled themselves and only managed to get 66%.

The President does show excellant jugement doesn't he? Just the guy that I want controlling the destiny of the World.

Back to the Tree; if these guys are found innocent does that mean the events never happened?

Is Gold really @ $500 and are we just being told that it is @ $293; and is the US Bond really of value, or is it just artificially being supported by Central Bank buying?


(Tue Mar 17 1998 11:23 - ID#401460)

They are buying, it has been in the news. That post of mine was from Yahoo news this am.

It is being reported like it is a non event, something that is being done for one reason or the other. They actually once used the weather as an excuse - El Nino and shopping affecting the banks liquidity or something like that.

They just release this info to the press in the form and context they choose; and the press blindly reports it with out question.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 11:27 - ID#255151)
Update and Commentary

Gold at $293 and change. Dow down 24 on volume of about 250 million shares. NOW ( National Org. for Women ) credibility at a new all time low. Two and a half days left to get to $320-$360. Hate to say this, but Go Gold-to THREE-TWO-FIVE!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 11:27 - ID#280215)
Realistic 9:49 post - Right On!!
I am not one to get into baiting or arguing about anyone specifically. I'd rather focus on the markets. I promise you after this post it won't happen again ( well maybe ) ! But that post by Old Gold at 18:04 on March 16 finally made me crack. The steam coming out of my ears almost melted my PC. Where did that even come from?? ( Left field? ) I always get in in the morning and review the previous days posts from 13:00 on to the present. The only reference to Glenn was when someone asked about some options.

OLD GOLD: What prompted you to even mention Glenn's calls? Glenn's down there on the floor and gives us not just his opinion, but that from the other traders actually on the floor. More than not, he is on the money because he's reflecting what's actually going on on the floor, not what he hopes will happen. However, tone changes and eventually markets reverse. I'm sure he saw this with your oil example.

Everyone's wrong a few times, but I should remind you that Glenn also said before our recent rally to 306 that " for the first time, things seem different and that a rally could develop-- and it did. A few days ago he said he leaned to the short side in the short term. Sorry, but I think his record is pretty good. It just bugs me that you trashed him like that when your record is not even close. And don't try to put a different spin on it. You didn't just constructively object to his call, you outright trashed him! I have been lurking for a year or so before finally posting and am aware of your "the bull is right around the corner" calls of years ago that continued even as gold tanked relentlessly. I apolgize to you in advance for my tone, but you have no bisuness trashing Glenn or anyone for that matter, with your track record.
Enough said! Again, I apologize to all for this tirade but I couldn't take it anymore!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 11:29 - ID#210235)
@central banks buying bonds
Foreign central banks reduced their holdings of US Treasury securities at a 13/2% annual rate in the latest 3 month period, increasing the rate of drawdown. It is 9.9% over 6 mos. and 3.5% for 12 months. How long can this keep going on? Those numbers are quoted by Byron Wein from Grant's Interest Rate Observer.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 11:30 - ID#410194)
This just in
Bonds turn lower not too long ago and guess what is the talk on the floor...

Clinton may be asked to take a lie detector test ( ! ) with threat of impeachment proceedings if he refuses.

The Hermit
(Tue Mar 17 1998 11:32 - ID#369247)
@ HighRise & Jed
The people are being taught ( along with other things ) that:
( 1 ) Clinton/McKinney are truthful and the women are the liars.
( 2 ) Good is evil and evil is good.
( 3 ) What is true is false and what is false is true
( 3 ) Debt is money and true money is worthless.
( 4 ) The DOW will go up forever and gold is headed for the bottom.
( 5 ) UP is DOWN and DOWN is UP

We had better not believe it. There is a TRUTH and gold does have value.


The Hermit

(Tue Mar 17 1998 11:37 - ID#252150)
Leaner@Natural Gas
I own some oil/gas jrs with emphasis on gas & would be interested in communicating with you.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 11:45 - ID#372262)
Silver Implosion

Silver being trashed this morning! 5.80 support must hold or we're headed back down to $5.00! WB or nor WB.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 11:49 - ID#227290)
Hermit: Well put, sir.
Wish I'd said that.

The Preacher

(Tue Mar 17 1998 11:52 - ID#410194)
The Clinton saga
Bridge News has now picked up on the story and it's a Republican Senator who wants Clinton to take a lie detector test and if he refuses, the congress would start impeachment proceedings.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 11:57 - ID#252150)
You ask "how can hard assets be worth only about the same as they were in 1979"? Is'nt it pretty obvious that E/Ps have become much more efficient?
Look at the oil & gas industry. Within the last 5-10 yrs 3D imaging has been perfected to the point where some companies have drilling success ratios of well over 70%. With the metals they are becoming more & more effective using magnetic imaging from aircraft. With ags they are also becoming more efficient. Monsanto has genetically engineered soybeans that are resistant to the pesticide roundup. They spray the soybean crops & kill everything except the soybeans. Makes one wonder how much roundup that the soybeans absorb. How many 1000s of acres are they clearing every day in the amazon for agriculture?
There are a lot of reasons why commodity prices are low & could stay low for a long time. Man's ingenuity & greed are 2 of the main ones.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 11:57 - ID#183109)
Amplats on mission to start a new rush for its 'white gold'

(Tue Mar 17 1998 11:57 - ID#36156)
My broker thinks I should buy into Glamis Gold ( GLG ) . What do you guys think?


(Tue Mar 17 1998 11:58 - ID#32078)
Trading opinions
I would like to concur with Stradler's defense of Glenn and many other commentators on this forum.

As most traders recognize, the market changes often. Since the first of the year, I have been a buyer, seller, buyer, seller, buyer, and now a seller of gold stocks and funds. Since I feel that the trend is slowly down, I am now mostly cash.

If someone else tries to invest using my comments on this forum, then he will probably think I am wrong half the time. I consider Glenn's comments in that light. Don't try to make a long term decision by looking at short term comments, and if you do, it's your problem, not Glenn's. Because I am short term oriented, I understand Glenn's comments and find them very informative.

No meaningful source of good opinion should be discouraged from posting, even if he's crazy enough to think BC is telling the truth.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 11:59 - ID#204244)
selkirk pass
tolerant1 ( grant ) ID#31868:
Plain old regular folks are already fed up, it will get worse before it gets better. This next go round could very well lead to the states breaking off into territorys. Each part of the US is vastly different and with the exception of the huge cities, the "folks" out there don't like central control of anything.

Well said and very interesting. A number of Yankees have asked me in the past what is the Quebec problem? It is control. The question we all are asking ourselves is who do we want controlling our lives ( me, the province/or state, or the Federal government ) ?. In Canada and the US ( and other Western countries ) this is the struggle at its basic level. In Canada our federals consist by majority of Quebecers ( or Central Canadians ) and by no means represent the country as a whole ( possibly a problem experienced in the US ) . If Democracy has any hope of functioning properly it has to be put closer into the hands of the individual - such as what happened in Scotland last September ( a tide of which our respective governments will be attempting to stem ) .

Gold = personal control. It is not popular at present time. It may be again ( ie. 1970-80s ) . If it does governments will attempt to discredit it ( if they have not already ) . Why were bearer bonds made illegal? Ans: no government control. The lure of power over others is always more popular than money.

The truth at the end of the day is that governments can not control it citizens nor "money" - only YOU if you choose to use THEIR money. Some Rhodesian/South African friends have reminded me of this when removing their savings from these countries then eventually fleeing themselves.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:01 - ID#401460)
Diversion from Truth

If Kathleen Willey has a book deal does that mean the event never happened? I am sure the public will think so, or at least who ever they pole.

We are constantly being diverted form the truth and true issues.

I had a friend who the other day said "we are witnessing spiritual warfare - good against evil"
I have to say that I am agreeing with him.


Newt has suggested it may be time to appoint a special committee to review possible impeachment of the President.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:03 - ID#222448)
Prospector @selkirk pass
Saturday Review


The latest addition to the periodic chart: Administratium

The heaviest element known to science was recently discovered by physicists

at the University of Toronto Research Centre. The element, tentatively

named Administratium, has no protons nor elections and thus has an atomic

number of 0. However, it does have one neutron, 125 assistant neutrons, 75

vice-neutrons, and 11 assistant-vice-neutrons. This gives it an atomic mass

of 312. These 312 particles are held together in a nucleus by a force that

involves the continuous exchange of meson-like particles called morons.

Since it has no electrons, Administratium is inert. However, it can be

detected chemically as it impedes every reaction it comes in contact with.

According to the discoverers, a minute amount of administratium caused a

reaction to take over four days to complete, when it would normally occur in

less than one second.

Administratium has a normal life of approximately three years, at which time

it does not actually decay but, instead, undergoes a re-organization in

which assistant neutrons, vice-neutrons and assistant vice-neutrons exchange

places. Some studies have shown that the atomic weight usually increases

after each re-organization.

Research at other laboratories indicate that Administratium occurs naturally

in the atmosphere. It tends to concentrate at certain points such as

government agencies, large corporations, universities, and can actually be

found in the newest, best maintained buildings.

Scientists point out that Administratium is known to be TOXIC at any level

of concentration and can easily destroy any productive reactions where it is

allowed to accumulate. Attempts are being made to determine how

Administratium can be controlled to prevent irreversible damage, but results

to date are not promising.

Source unknown

(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:03 - ID#57232)
Currency Inflation -- what do we watch?
Jeil,all: Jeil -- I think you made a comment about the Fed buying US treasuries that foreign investors have sold. We know that the money supply ( M3, I think ) expanded dramatically in 1997, and that the Federal debt has gone up nearly $200 billion in the last 12 months, despite a 'balanced budget'. I still have preoblems deciphering what is happening.

Does anyone know what one needs to watch -- for short term vs long term inflationary effects?

Long - term inflation: National debt. Ie, I think increasing the national debt is long-term inflationary, as noone except professional dollar watchers will notice. The actual inflationary effects only occur when the US government is unable to meet interest payments -- years later. We probably could abosrb 1 trillion more in debt and never know it if we were not watching the numbers.

Intermediate term : Selling US newly created treasuries to foreigners, increasing foreign dollar reserves.

Short term: Printing money, buying US treasuries from foreigners, sudden sales of CB reserve dollars by foreign banks to stabilize foreign currencies in difficulties.

Comments, anyone -- --- Specifically, what do we watch? M2, M3, national debt, and?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:05 - ID#195112)
Henry D GLG
I have owned GLG for about 4 months. BOT for 3 1/2. Since then it has hovered in the 3 3/4 - 4 zone. I don't know diddly about gold mining but the company has plenty of cash and the stock, so far, has been relatively stable. If gold ever does go up, I think this one will follow nicely. IMHO

(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:12 - ID#26793)
Fed in the treasury market? Take a look at these past few days.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:12 - ID#410198)
Preacher,as promised,and off subject,here is the info on Ian Smith in his own words

(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:13 - ID#288295)
An excellent find! Perhaps it is somehow related to the other recently-found elements....Donthavnium, Cantfindnium and Unobtainium

(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:14 - ID#36156)
nanyuki (Henry D GLG)
I thank you, Sir. What do you know about their long term debt? My broker says it's ZERO, but I don't exactly know how to interpret that vis-a-vis price stability, earnings, etc.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:17 - ID#410194)
Clinton - again
Stocks, bonds and the US Dollar have now recovered on the belief that the lie detector test story has no solid foundation.

The markets are becoming fragile again when it comes to Clinton's problems.

There isn't too much room left for more messy stuff. It appears that the cup is getting full.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:18 - ID#31868)
selkirk pass
Something people tend to forget. Americans can be the most adrenal people on the planet. It is my contention that the idiots in the District of Columbia have completely lost sight of this. In addition, the vast majority of Americans cannot stand the United Nations, they hate the District of Columbia and as I stated, the now silent, for the time being, majority is getting more and more hacked off by the day.

When the pendulum swings the other way it will not be a pretty sight. The use of force by the US government against her own citizens has not been lost on "folks" all across America. I truly wish it were not so, but I feel that America is entering a period of severe dislocation, and as I have stated before, I pity any country or entity that sticks its nose in that affair because the retribution will be harsh, unforgiving and brutal.

The politicians and bankers who would mold a world into their particular point of view thesis as to how the human race should operate and be run are in fact causing their own demise. I believe in the not too distant future that people that work for or represent themselves as part of government will be literally be spit upon by the populace.

But then history has shown us this before, it is a shame, something that any sane individual prays does not happen, but does and appears to be an act of such cosmic proportions so as to remind human beings that they are the created and not the creator.

Such is a life. People don't start wars, governments and bankers do.

Peace, a shot of Cuervo to ya. Cheers, gulp.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:18 - ID#347123)
Jed's Simple Truths
Jed, your earlier comment regarding confusion over reality versus truth and the need to be prepared for simpler ways are wise. Undoubtedly we are in territory in the financial world which is so out of touch with the physical world that we have no alternative but to stare stupified at the splendour of an expontential growth curve that has no apparent plateau. Yet our heart and gut tells us that such an expansion rate, in the markets and in money supply, cannot be sustained without breaching the fundamental laws of physics and those governing our natural world.

You are wise in suggesting the need to prepare for simpler times when the unsustainable markets, unsustainable money supply growth, and the Y2K will collapse upon itself and we will be left with systemic systems collapse that few will be able to cope with. Suicides will undoubtedly increase as this unfolds. We cannot imagine a world without our creature comforts of our current infrastructure ( including financial ) yet we must be prepared to cope with such a future when it comes. Yet we must prepare for days of simplicity when what we have taken for granted will be no more...when the illusion that we face today will be unmasked, just as the Wizard of Oz was "unscreened."

The unsustainable market situation calls for a time of preparation for simpler times....

(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:24 - ID#26793)
Low oil prices causing past due loan burdens for Mexican banks

(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:29 - ID#210235)
Maybe we can bail out Mexico once more, for old times sake.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:31 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother John,

One of the most interesting things going on
in commodities is a very low oil price.

I would really seek for an opportinuty to
hear your opinion about this development.

Is this too much oil around or else?

Your very green brother Oris...

(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:33 - ID#210235)
Those Kitco readers who are not out digging their Victory Gardens in the back yard burst into a chorus of Auld Lang Syne.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:36 - ID#401460)


Date: Tue Mar 17 1998 12:12
Donald__A ( Fed in the treasury market? Take a look at these past few days. ) ID#26793:

Everyone should see this.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:39 - ID#210235)
I have the pleasure of talking to many young ( high school and college ) and find that 99% of them just hate the federals. This opinion, for differing reasons, is the one thing I hear from the young Christian fundamentalists as well as the dope-smoking nihilists, and nearly everyone in between.

They are too disgusted with the antics in Washington to react anymore to news. They've discounted it.

Time to go dig my Victory Garden.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:44 - ID#401460)
Fed Funds Rate

The Fed Funds rate appears to be rising from just below 5 1/2 to a plus 1/16 or more over the last fews days.

Any thoughts?


(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:46 - ID#57232)
I like your analogies
Realistic: I think what you are saying has relevance. BC's problems have yet to involve the markets -- but now the majority believe that he is lying about his sexual encounters. And -- the polls now indicate that he probably would not be reelected if the election were to be held now.

But -- right now the majority do not think BC should be impeached, because there is 'no proof to the allegations'.

So - the seeds of doubt have been sown in the public. The trigger has been set, and the next revelation about BC's extracurricular activities will be far more damaging. Nixon's Watergate took about two years from start to finish. With our electronic media, I would guess 6-12 months. It may not be long before there is a paradoxical situation where the Democrats want him out, but the Republicans want to draw out the crisis to 1999. I think the xxxgate crisis will be most damaging to the Democrats if it rises to a creshendo in 1999.

Perhaps the biggest problem with 2yk will not be the computers after all.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:46 - ID#342282)
Larryn re your 11:58
Right on. I know a lot of "investors" who are long term because of the confusion between L.T. and S.t. I'm one

(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:52 - ID#244242)
Scary, ain't it? Reads like a broken record. We are still in control today... We are still in control today... We are still in control today... ad nauseum.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 12:54 - ID#347123)
JTF..what to watch. M3, M2, M1
JTF your comments are what has kept me awake at nights as well. It has been some time since I posted to Kitco...but I'M BACK!

I certainly don't have any answers to your question but I can present some theories based on examining past M3, M2 and M1 money supply growth rates.

The short answer as to what money supply statistics to watch is probably all three forms as well as total debt, but most importantly M3 and M1. Milhouse undoubtedly has greater wisdom on this issue.

I have been contemplating assessing how money supply statistics may serve as early warning signs of systemic least if the growth rate in money supply begins to exceed the growth rate in physical assets ( particularly gold in terms of the annual production ) does this margin suggest a reflexive moment ( Soros's words ) or systems collapse or correction is imminent? I have not completed my analysis but I do have a theory. If anyone wishes to engage me in this debate or refute my theories, please do so.

M3 is currently roaring at an annual growth rate of 9% per annum ( January statistics ) . Clearly this is completely out of synch with annual gold production ( our proxy for the normal growth rate of our natural world ) . Such a growth rate is clearly fact inflation is caused by expanding the money supply to aggressively. Our formal economic indicators do not, however, suggest inflation in the real economy and this is largely the case. This leaves the only possiblity that inflation is occuring elsewhere. Where? The Economist wisely pointed in an article back in November ( I believe ) that the stock market itself is exhibiting inflationary tendancies. This isn't surprising to most of us and supports Warren Buffet's comments that there is nothing worth buying on the stock market given that stocks are overpriced...i.e. inflated. It behooves Greenspan to do anything about this situation except to engineer a soft landing or sustain the money supply pump to keep sustain an inherintly unsustainable and inflationary stock market. Greenspan can control the real economy with monetary policy levers like interest rates but he cannot at this stage, despite irrational exhuberance, pop the stock market inflation bubble without catastrophic consequences that would ripple throughout the world. Obviously, part of the inflationary momentum is driven by the inflight of investment capital from abroad seeking "value" or safety in the U.S. dollar and markets. This inflight of capital also requires the priming of the M3 money supply as investors seek the U.S. dollar for safety.

Undoubtedly, the IMF bailout packages have also required a priming of the money supply pump which is partly to blame for an M3 growth rate of 9%. This may also be an enormous game of chicken between the U.S.-backed IMF and the BIS in Switzerland ( as some commmentators on golden eagle have suggested ) . The IMF bailouts clearly are meant not only to correct inherently corrupt and inefficient financial systems in South East Asia ( at least that is what we are told in the media ) but also to place constraints upon these nations so that they are beholden to the mighty US dollar and US monetary system rules in the future....dominion in short ( just what New Zealand experienced years ago with their own IMF to any New Zealander...they live under financial dictatorship unable to exercise their own style of social policy or military prerogative ( eg. nuclear free zone ) .

What we are experiencing today is unique. M1 ( paper species ) is continually shrinking.....negative growth rates. To some this may not seem surprising given the increasing use of eletronic currency trading including debit cards, Interac transactions, etc. While M1 is shrinking M2 and M3 are roaring at unsustainable and inflationary warp speed. In part M2 and M3 must be growing at this rate to keep the stock market inflated, to fund the IMF bailout packages, and basically maintain the illusion of a strong US currency and market.

A curious thing happened at the time of the October 1987 stock market correction. Examine the statistics for M1 and you will see an enormous increase ( I believe in the order of 20% increase ) in a very short period. This primed the liquidity pump to pull the stock market out of its tale spin. It obviously worked yet few media comments are made about how the day was saved. The danger of course is that this priming of the liquidity pump requires new debt instruments be sold to finance the rescue plan.

In the natural world, natural systems maintain sustainable rates of energy flows in a virtuous cycle of birth and death and rebirth. My primary thesis has been that our financial world and even our economic consumption-based world is so out of synch with the real world and the laws of thermodynamics that we must eventually see a "iceberg" emerge where the entire system experiences a reflexive moment...a monumental die back that corrects the system back to something that is sustainable.

Gold, ironically is one of the best proxies for sustainable growth rates for an economy that closely mimics the real or natural world. With the total supply of gold only increasing at an average 2% per year over time, we can see that an economy and monetary policy that attempts to mimic the natural world would be wise to consider the rate of growth in global gold supply as a guidepost for sustainable economic growth. Clearly with M3 roaring at 9% we are completely out of synch and heading towards that iceberg.

The daunting question that most of us, including gold bugs, face is WHERE is the DAMM the Titanic...will that reflexive moment be upon us when we least expect it and we have gotten lazy and left our binoculars below deck! Undoubtedly our fate is like the Titanic, I fear....the iceberg is out there in the mist but we have no sense of where and when we will strike it!


(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:02 - ID#342282)
Donald yours 12:12, JTF and High Rise ,Fed buying
The illigitumus's are soaking up evry bit of neg mkt action they can see. JTF I have some questions too about what to watch. High Rise, it looks like you've got them nailed too. I'm going to try a considerate post about this later, which may help focus some, but there is a need for division of labor. Anyone interested can pick what they think appropriate and/or add to cover and then maybe compare notes. Hope it works TIA

(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:05 - ID#26793)
You have to be careful with the M's. A lot of that money is going overseas lately because of local currency fright. When it gets repatriated back to the US is when the big problem will start.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:10 - ID#401460)

Thanks for the post.

There is a possibility that we have already hit the iceburg or at the very least a we have had a warning.

We have to be close, well closer than we were two years ago.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:12 - ID#31868)
All - hmmmmmm - I think one number that will snap people back
into reality will be an almost over night rise in unemployment. Things ARE grinding to a halt, there is overcapacity everywhere around the globe. The harsh reality is that companies will be letting workers go left and right to try and stay in business.

You won;t have to wait for the unemployment report. Daily accounts of company layoffs will soon start flooding company press releases.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:13 - ID#347447)
Excellent post re money supply, and I regret I do not have time to reply intelligently ( nor the intelligence even if I HAD the time ) . But it occurs to me that the process of this inflation ( in money and credit ) began in the early 1990's and is now at a truly inflationary pace in the modern definition of that re money supply growth. It has been my experience in the past, since the 1960's, that such money supply growth rates as are obtaining today have always been followed by a heavy foot on the monewtary brake down the line by the Fed. This current cycle is an institutional paper-based inflation. The rotting institutions of the past century are escaping reform by absorbing credit. This is a fin de siecle ( sp? ) end game kind of inflation for financial institutions. There has been very little monetization and consumerization of the created credit flows as it has mostly gone into institutional transactions ( debt ( ( bonds ) ) stocks, and capital expansion in the former "third" world, asia, China, etc ) . When this process comes to a halt, there will be either a collapse, or a stagflation in which industrial activity returns to natural levels, and credit vehicles become progressively monetized. Psychology follows the investment mode du jour, which has been high quality paper ( tho many here think that an oxmoron ) . This has been an extraordinary cycle, and it must end as all such cycles - with the eruption of rising interest rates and restimulation of the gold market. This will not come until rates begin to rise. Any attempt to stanch the rise of rates by over supply of money and credit will only create a larger balloon to burst down the road. I would nit pick only one statement you made: I believe that the true definition of inflation is any increase in fiduciary note issue above and beyond the amount of specie ( gold and silver backing ) in existence. Since there is no such restriction today, we think a 6-9% increase in money supply is inflation, while 2-3% is ok. All is inflation at this point, and has been for some time. In a fiat system, any increase in money supply is inflation, and it goes on all the time.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:16 - ID#342282)
Markus, 12:54
Excellent. No further comments at the moment. Please consider my post later with your perspective. Thanx

(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:17 - ID#31868)
Markus - excellent post - thought provoking to say the least -
It is my contention that we have hit the iceberg - Asia - the ship has been buoyant due to many factors, but the hold is taking on a tremendous amount of water, when the ratio hits the point of no return the market will sink faster than the Titanic in relative terms.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:22 - ID#368244)
Federal Reserve

Bill, try this.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:22 - ID#401460)

It was my understanding that those dollars were now coming back?

I agree that you have to watch M1, M2, M3, and all of the numbers the government is giving us. This administration has shown there ability to lie about the smallest of things so they must be lieing about the larger issues also.

It has been obvious that the employment numbers coming out of the labor department are fudged and juggle prior to every election or Fed meetring. I would have to assume the inflation numbers have been rigged also.


Chase Bank has been halted, they are going to cut 4500 jobs and have 2 for 1 split. Looks like the Rockefellers are doing well. I think I got that right just came over CNBC.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:32 - ID#289357)

Markus, I agree with the others. An excellent piece of work. Must read it more closely when I get the time.

Do you think M1 may be lagging because of all the cash that is exported? What happens when that cash returns home ( perhaps replaced with another currency ( EURO ) , gold, silver ) ?

Have you done any work on relating the M numbers lately with Fed holdings of Treasury Debt paper?



(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:32 - ID#269409)
@ Black / Red ratio
Love Bart's new format on the Metals price page. Now since DOWN moves are noted in red, I wonder if we'll start a new "Black/Red" ratio! Silver...oh my poooooor Silver........

(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:32 - ID#401460)

The layoffs will be the canary that died. Could be, if it is correct, that this Chase layoff announcement is the first of many. Sounds as if they are trimming the sails and getting ready for a big storm. They are reducing their overhead while positioning their stock at a lower and much safer price level.

If anyone in this world know, before anyone else, it would be them - they are the major owner and controller of the Fed.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:39 - ID#36156)
Does anyone else have comments on Glamis Gold ( GLG ) ? All I know is that it's a Canadian mining company, has no long term debt, and has been trading at between $3 1/2 and $4 for the last four months. I'm thinking about splitting my HM shares between these two.

For that matter, any other comments on Homestake and it's future trading potentials? Saw something earlier this morning that didn't bode well for the stock. Would really appreaciate knowing your reaction/opinion on this.

HenryD - Go GOLD!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:40 - ID#410198)
after keeping an approving low profile for the last year,the SHADOW OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE is back on the warpath,accusing the Federal Reserve's real Open Market Committee of having planted"the seeds of higher inflation" the steady acceleration of the money supply has alarmed the group of monetarist economists.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:42 - ID#347235)
@ All
Keep the faith now that gold is still relatively cheap NOW is the time to buy,not to worry it will get back up there, I am putting ALL of my retired pay I have saved over the last three years into it and will enjoy the ride up.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:43 - ID#238295)
My post re: Glenn began with the observation that he has made many good calls. He has been especially good re: gold and the stock market. Considerably better than me and many others here.

Nonetheless his late 1996 oil call was one of the worst ever made on this forum. And it was not just a tactical call either. I have rarely seen anybody as positive on anything as Glenn was on oil in late 1996.

The point being that we all human and even the best of us can get it toally wrong sometimes ( hepcat excepted ) . EVERYBODY'S forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:46 - ID#251268)
same old obvious,
post silver down 4.0% PAL. down 5.0% PLAT.down 1.0%
Gold only down .35% but all those other metals have made a
up,oh well got 4 more aug.calls~~~~~~~~~~theres a time to buy
and a time to sell a time to wear green and drink green beer,
got to go have some fun I just cant keep up with the torent pace
of gold,to much stress~~~don't get luled to sleep my friends.
( sp )

(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:47 - ID#251268)
Oh I guess.
I posted that a little to soon

(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:51 - ID#401460)
Chase Bank

Just reopened up $4+, after announcing 4500 layoffs and a 2 for 1 split.

Nice deal if you can get it. Other bank stocks are all up, more will try the same slick move.

I figure that is at least 4500 Chase credit card accounts that are in trouble now - and they just raiosed their interest rate to 22%+

Remember, that all of the banks have converted their credit card interest rates to Prime Plus 10%. And do you remember when Prime hit 21%, that would require a 30%+ interest rate on credit cards., Therefore, I better make at least 30% on my Gold. Scary!


(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:53 - ID#341189)
robnoel - Shadow omc also wants IMF junked
``Moral hazard will remain as long as the IMF continues to bail out international banks,'' the statement said. It added: ``The IMF should be abolished. The Bank for International Settlements should assume the responsibility for lending in the rare instances where such lending is useful.''

(Tue Mar 17 1998 13:55 - ID#246224)
Mike Sheller
I am holding you personally responsible for my near death experience after reading your early morning posts ;- ) I hope this weighs heavily on your mind for at least a few seconds. BTW what kind of bow do you tie with that lemon grass? TIA

(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:00 - ID#251268)
? anybody else
notice that when there is a big move in cash price of gold
it takes time to get to the futures market quite a bit of
divergence for 1/2 hour or so?seems to obvious to trade
off of but I have noticed it before and even as I post
april and june gold both only down .80 any thoughts?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:01 - ID#410198)
Carl:standback the chickens are heading home

(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:07 - ID#401460)

The Big guys moving millions can follow and take advantage of those moves, heck they probably create the delay for their benefit.

I have noticed the same kind of delays with some mutual funds. Some of them react two days after a move in related markets.

Friday is tripple witching options epirations, and the next few days could be strange.

I thought of buying some OEX puts last night but didn't follow through this am. May still be a good play?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:07 - ID#307364)
Thebishop (Midwesterner re: Allegheny Mines Corp.)
Thanks you very much for the information in your March 09 messages. With the help of the electronic links you have given, I was able to find more about Allegheny Mines and to have a more understandable look at the evolution of the compagny. I am now becoming a bit warmer about that stock prospect because they seem to have the potential for a large structural discovery in their base metals property.

I have learned about the successful Prospectors and Developers Convention held in Toronto a week ago and somebody informed me that Allegheny was present and that, following the Convention, there are companies now reviewing the geophysical results with a joint venture interest.

Is anybody aware of any articles or recommendations on Allegheny Mines Corporation?


(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:11 - ID#269409)
@ Bland uninformative news releases

Tuesday March 17, 10:04 am Eastern Time

NY precious metals sharply lower midmorning

NEW YORK, March 17 ( Reuters ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures were sharply
lower across most of the complex midmorning Tuesday, with gold the only metal little changed.

``Silver is seeing heavy liquidation by funds now that the $6.00 level has been broken on the
downside again,'' said Refco analyst James Steel.

COMEX May silver was down 23.5 cents at $5.860 an ounce midmorning, after seeing a two
month low early at $5.825.

Standard daily momentum indicators, such as a five-day slow stochastic, a nine-day relative
strength indicator ( RSI ) , a 13 and 26 day moving-average convergence-divergence ( MACD ) and a
14 day Directional Movement ( +DM-DM ) are all negative for silver, while the contract's five day
moving average is back below both its 20-day and 50 day average, analysts noted.

In the bullion market, spot silver was quoted $5.89/92 midmorning, compared to the London
Tuesday fix at $6.0725, and the New York close Monday at $6.10/13.

But silver's forward price curve remains in backwardation, even though deliveries have now been
completed under the purchase of 129.7 million ounces of silver by U.S. billionaire Warren Buffet
announced in February.

In February spot silver prices saw nine year highs around $7.90 on news Warren Buffet controlled
about 15 pct of estimated above ground silver inventories.

Meanwhile COMEX April gold was seen down just $1.10 an ounce at $294.00, after trading a
$296.00-293.80 early range.

In the bullion market, spot gold was quoted $293.30/80, compared to the London Tuesday morning
fix at $293.80 and the New York close Monday around $294.30/80.

After falling to 18 year lows in January this year, spot gold prices recovered to $305.80 in early
February, but have been drifting lower again since.

NYMEX April platinum was down $8.00 an ounce at $394.50, after trading a $404.50-393.00
range early range, while NYMEX June palladium was down $9.50 at $260.50, after a sharp fall on
the Tokyo Commodity Exchange ( TOCOM ) overnight, and after spot palladium hit new 18 year
highs Monday.

But in the bullion market, spot palladium lease rates remained high around 20 pct for one month,
reflecting the ongoing absence of Russian exports since last December.

Russia supplies about 60 pct of world's palladium

Spud Master
(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:15 - ID#273112)
You now the climax is near
when everywhere, and I do mean EVERYWHERE you look there are signs begging even for UNSKILLED labour ( and I have, having been flying all over the US the past few weeks ) .

From the back of the "Super Shuttle" van ( $250 sign-on bonus - for an unskilled driver?! ) to the local MacDonalds ( $9/hour ) to the grocery stores.

When the lowest-tier of employment is screaming for more bodies, it can't be too long now.

Rampant construction. Awesome contructions ... vacant fields erupting with slab-crete shopping malls. A furious rush to put them up, suck in consumers, round and round and round in an ever increasing rush of spend and buy and credit and spend and buy and...

How dreadful this is all going to be when it comes collapsing down.


Spud Master
(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:16 - ID#273112)
Sorrow ... Ebonics training
now = know

(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:17 - ID#20748)
On a day like this, let us all sing
a pirated song from the Spectator.

Blow jobs and land deals in backwater places,
Big Macs and french fries and girls with big
Lots of nice cleavage that makes willie spring,
Theses are a few of my favorite things.

Susan McDougal and Gennifer Flowers,
Horny young interns eho while 'way hours,
Profits from futures that Hillary brings,
These are a few of my favorite things.

Beating the draft board and getting elected,
Naming to judgeships some hacks I've
Conspiracy theories that blame the right wing,
These are a few of my favorite things.

Meeting with Boris and Helmut and Tony,
States of the Union with lots of baloney,
Winning debates and the joys of my flings,
These are a few of my favorite things.

When the Jones bites,
When Ken Starr stings,
When I'm feeling sad,
And then I don't feel so bad . . .

And for an encore :

Golfing with Vernon and urging some perjury,
Falling down drunk and requiring knee
Hollywood tarts who come here to 'sing',
These are a few of my favorite things.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:20 - ID#401460)
Gold falling off the Edge again?

Nose dive in PMs and other issues.
Not reflected in the DOW average.
I noticed earlier that many stocks are down that have little relationship to one another they are in totally different market sectors. It looks like there may be hidden selling or unloading of stocks. Could be tripple witching or just some smart people taking some profits.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:22 - ID#288369)
@As I see it, dimly....
Gold could slide $40. to $60. over the course of the next two months....this would not be nearly as dramatic a fall as oil's current price adjustment. We must prepare ourselves for this possibility.

Mentally adjusted, I remain Studio.or Sheikh-en-my-Bootz

(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:22 - ID#401460)
April Gold

Down $ 2.70


(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:23 - ID#20748)
Edited with typos corrected
Blow jobs and land deals in backwater places,
Big Macs and french fries and girls with big
Lots of nice cleavage that makes willie spring,
Theses are a few of my favorite things.

Susan McDougal and Gennifer Flowers,
Horny young interns who while 'way hours,
Profits from futures that Hillary brings,
These are a few of my favorite things.

Beating the draft board and getting elected,
Naming to judgeships some hacks I've
Conspiracy theories that blame the right wing,
These are a few of my favorite things.

Meeting with Boris and Helmut and Tony,
States of the Union with lots of baloney,
Winning debates and the joys of my flings,
These are a few of my favorite things.

When the Jones bites,
When Ken Starr stings,
When I'm feeling sad,
I simply remember my favorite things,
And then I don't feel so bad . . .

And for an encore :

Golfing with Vernon and urging some perjury,
Falling down drunk and requiring knee
Hollywood tarts who come here to 'sing',
These are a few of my favorite things.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:27 - ID#339265)
...and with that little piece of news, gentlemen, you can kiss the gold and silver market good-bye for at least the next month...maybe longer!

DOW bull mania seems unstoppable in the the public says, "THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND" and "DON'T WORRY , BE HAPPY." Again, the American public don't give a Sh_t about anything other than their monthly balance statements from the mutual funds. President Clinton could rape his secretary on the doorsteps of the White House...Iraq could drop a chemical warhead on Tel Aviv...IBM could announce that it will NOT earn another dollar until the year 2005...China could declare a complete trade boycott with Japan...the U.S. government could announce a mandatory sterilization program for all minority ethnic groups...etc. etc. NONE OF IT MATTERS ONE IOTA TO THE AMERICAN PUBLIC. They fear nothing and care about nothing that does not affect them on a first hand basis. Moreover, their collective ethics are in the toilet and the more tawdry and horrendous the national or world problem, the more inspired they are to figure out some angle to exploit in order to make money from the negative. Of course, that's part of the problem...every negative is denied and perceived as a positive. It has created a horrendous, immoral national mentality because sometimes, hard to believe but true, truly awful things are actually truly awful. There simply is no positive spin one can put upon them unless one is totally immoral and/or irrational. It is truly a dismal decade we live in.

Unfortunately, owing to a sudden spurt in workload, I will probably be absent this forum for some time.

I've enjoyed many of the great posts here and the interesting variety of characters. However, I have noted that in the last month alone, there has been a notable decrease in some of the more interesting posts as people depart this forum for DOW-ER pastures. I suppose gold/silver bug depression is to blame. God knows, I suffer my own bouts with the syndrome.

Myself...I plan to return to check in and see what is transpiring when I get more time.



(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:28 - ID#195112)
Henry D: Re (GLG)

GLG has no long term debt and a current ratio of 13. This means to me that they can weather a continued bear market a lot better than some others. It does not mean the price of the stock will not go down if gold keeps plummeting.

I am a devotee of the "cash talks, b.s. walks" school of thought. In a situation such as this I prefer an under leveraged company.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:29 - ID#26793)
@High Rise
The truth is that no one knows, not even the Fed, how much U.S. currency is circulating overseas. The last attempt by the Fed ( that I know of ) was $233 billion which they estimated on December 31, 1994. Since then the trouble in Korea and especially, Indonesia, it must be much higher. There could be some offset in Europe as in Greece over the weekend. Since 1989 large sums circulate in all the former communist countries. A few months ago Barron's had a report that the Fed changed the reporting to extract the overseas numbers. It has made the number unreliable because when you compare to the older figures it was still included. I expect that the confusion was deliberate.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:31 - ID#410194)
No large purchase yet...
No sign of any large purchase yet that should bring Gold back to the $320-$360 US range.

As soon as we spot anything that looks like it and I mean anything, I will let you know ok?

Date: Mon Mar 09 1998 07:55
The purchase of large physical stocks of gold in Nov. did send a message to the CBs. They did begin slowdown of sales/easing. The "management tool of gold in the 90s" ( see Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 13:08 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253 ) is now to go into reverse! A large purchase, now, is sending another message, "bring gold back into $320 to $360 US$ range. We should see this in five to ten days. This will be a hard thing, as it may create a crush to cover. Let us watch this "new gold market", as it is not as before.
I will post later in march!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:34 - ID#246224)
Welcome abck Markus!
And such a good post as well. The M's are interesting and, as Donald points out, tend to flow different places. My recollection is that M1 is: cash & demand accounts ( checking and savings ) . So M1 is not paper per se but includes it. My check goes direct to the bank. No paper money involved. Still M1 stuff. Circulating paper money in the USA proper is a small proportion of the 'credits' in the system. It seems like we have fractional reserve banking at many levels in our banking system.

Now let's say there was a general perception that banks were not able to supply paper currency equal to what you had in the bank. And let's say you and alot of other people decided that, well MAYBE it would be better to have SOME of that money in paper currencies, just in case: BANK RUNS. Now let's say banks are having a hard time coping with this and then a computer problem cripples the banks. Ouch!!! ( Nah, how could that happen?! )

Let's imagine that some people have some paper money but most do not. In fact people still need to use paper or SOMETHING to buy and sell. Cash paper currency than becomes VERY PRECIOUS INDEED. The price of real goods declines drasticly as people are willing to part with their property for a few pieces of paper or other precious money.

But in this scenario it must be understood that PM's are even MORE SCARCE than paper money and will command a premium over paper money. Private investors in the USA have approximately 275 Million ounces of gold. That's approximately 1 ounce per capita. In comparison there is approxiamtely US$250 Billion in paper bills floating around the USA. That's approximately US$1000 per capita. Gold is 1000 times more rare than paper bills. My SENSE is that in such a scenario one would do well to own paper, silver and gold in modest amounts in order to afford one the opportunies of a lifetime. People will give away their property, businesses and possessions to obtain what they did not obtain prior to this time of trouble.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:34 - ID#410198)
Farfel,want to tell us how you really feel........don't depart for to long brother.....Chow

(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:37 - ID#401460)
I have been thinking that we can see much lower Gold I just didn't want to accept it. I guess we are all in denial with the Prez.

Looking at the historical Gold prices, Average Gold price was at $97.32 in 1973 and $159.26 in 1974; just 6 years later it hit $612.56.

If 1997 was 1973, then $ 97.32 : $ 330.98
Gold High 1980 - 2013 $612.56 : $2083.28

Aren't numbers great! Heck I can wait 6 years.
Man! is a box of cereal going to be small then.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:38 - ID#410198)
Donald,don't forget the new $100's $50 soon the $20's,they were supposed to take out the old,
when they put in the new,didn't happen

(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:43 - ID#26793)
Every once in a while CNBC runs a film file to accompany an Indonesia story. There is a counting machine flipping bills and a table stacked with bundles of bills. Notice that the bundles are all the new $100's. You are right about the old notes. A lot are still circulating or stashed.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:43 - ID#15388)
Farfel, you are right on!

Your post echos my own feelings about the current situation. Whenever I bring up the situation with people, I get a blank stare. The majority of the people out there are blissfully unaware that there is anything wrong or out of kilter with our economy. One friend was rather animated over the Asian crisis, as it might provide an opportunity to buy a cheap computer or television set! Where or how this will all end, I do not know. But I have my gold, whether it's in favor or not. I cannot believe it will not hold me in good stead, one day. I enjoy your posts, and all the others here. Not posting is not because of lack of interest, but rather because I don't think I could add to the vast store of knowledge on this board. Back to lurking, but keenly interested.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:43 - ID#401460)

Good Work, only problem is I can't get the tune out of my mind...a few of my favorite things..


(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:44 - ID#246224)
Farfel, you snivling wretch, get back here!
After all your posts about defections you are leaving us now because of WORK. What's more important work or Kitco ;- ) Come back to play soon, buddy!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:47 - ID#250121)
Purchasing power of a 1903 Sovereign
Agree. it is best to hold a variety of liquid assets now. I was very "struck" by the Dinar & Dirham. The dirham as a silver coin for small transactions like chickens, and precious for larger transactions. THis is the reason for my repeated question on the buying power of the Sovereign in 1903. My thoughts are, that if precious will again be recognised as a monetary store of value, there will be tendency for a gold sov to purchase a similar quantity of goods today as then. Not much point in only having $10,000.00 note or a single philli to buy a pint of milk.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:49 - ID#238295)
The big question
Gold complex battered today; looks like the stops at or just below $290 will soon be taken out. The big question -- FALSE OR REAL DOWNSIDE BREAKOUT?

Is there anybody here who still believes ANOTHER'S forecast of $320 by week's end?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:51 - ID#401460)

CPQ is now at an 8 month low, I have maintained since the 87 crash that Compaq is a market leader. Durring the crash of 87 it led every stock down. We are going down, just a little slower. The next few days will give us direction.

Oil service stocks are being hit hard also. It is beginning to look like we hit the Ice berg. Deflation and Deflation at the same time, it just depends on what side of the pond you stand.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:52 - ID#410198)
Donald,Do you remember a story about Republic National Bank flying 747's out of New York loaded
loaded with cash for Russia

(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:53 - ID#288369)
@farfel...I have really begun to enjoy your posts.....
Their ( your ) character, which has evolved over the last few months, has created an exciting new dimension. I want to affirm what you very well said ( paraphrased ) ..."this decade is rather, decayed". Hurry back...we need enough wagons to form a circle. Studio.*

(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:58 - ID#410198)
Farfel, have to go retro here,but can you FEEL THE LOVE..

(Tue Mar 17 1998 14:59 - ID#39971)
ANOTHER One Bites The Dust?
Farfel:You shall be missed.Hope you didn't have a near-death experience!

Come back when the PMs are not lower than the White Cliffs of Dover.OK?

Don't happy...have a Big Mac...and a Coke.Now git ta work.; )

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:01 - ID#330175)
I still believe in ANOTHER----------------
that he is full of crap~~~~~~~

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:04 - ID#288369)
@NJ...your 14:23.....
That's great! Your work?

Old Soldier
(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:06 - ID#185274)
Farfel quote
On 11 Mar 98 at 20:36 Farfel refered to this as "The Decade of Mass Hysteria." Some day we will look back with pride at being present for the naming of this strange decade.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:09 - ID#342282)
Donald re your 14:29
Extremely right. This has been going on since the 50's. I have Fed bulletins from then which have radically different reporting data than any time since. Maj. Racey Jordan beyond orders from Ickes the elder, FDR advisor, found engraving plates for $US going to Russia under Lend Lease in the mid 40's thru Great Falls Mont AFB

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:09 - ID#36156)
(All) The Goldbug's lament-or-what Shakespear SHOULD'VE said
Oh thou elusive spirit of Gold.
If thou hadst no name to be known by,
Let us call thee devil.

HenryD - Go you rascal GOLD!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:11 - ID#252127)

Your short 08:26 speaks volumes as to prices of other items -congrats, but we have to let lurkers know that since 1979, there were many victories for PM investors.

It seems that the detractors categorize gold as an item that never rises.

Even Dell, Texas Instruments, Micron and Apple had price swings simular to the yellow and its shares.

The general feeling that I get; is that most posters are hinting that gold will fly and never return to to past lows -this would be nice- but most likely not the case.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:13 - ID#349232)
TheBishop re: 14:07 - Others / Allegheny Mining - Huge Discovery???
You asked: "Is anybody aware of any articles or recommendations on Allegheny Mines Corporation?" I was told that a Mr. Skillings of the Skillings Mining Review was on Allegheny's property last month and will be doing an article that will be published somewhere about the 28th of this month. Was told they took a lot of pictures that will be in the publication. ( Front Page )

I have a question for you. As I am not a mining person, I don't know a lot of the more technical terms that is contained in some of their press releases. You mentioned "I am now becoming a bit warmer about that stock prospect because they seem to have the potential for a large structural discovery in their base metals property", could you tell me what some of the more technical descriptions are in the latest press release they put out on 3/3/98.

I don't know how normal people can understand what's being said in that press release. Sounds like they have something that's huge. Is that your understanding?

Anyone with the expertise to deciper that information for me, I would really appreciate. Especially before I increase my position with them.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:13 - ID#249285)
Gold bottom
I believe that gold will be making its bottom WED MARCH18/98.As I posted on Friday March13/98 that my cycle bottom would be in the week of March 13-20 /98 the middle of that time is Wed. IMHO,we will see. Hope I am right as we could all use the up move in gold.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:22 - ID#25784)
Yes, maam or sir. I agree with you seeing this unique must-be cyclically determined bottom coming in this week. However it can NOT be Wednesday. I am leaning to Thursday but it could be Friday. Lets work on it. some aspects are here making it. It should be 281 I now think not 285.

John Disney__A
(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:23 - ID#24135)
Cheap Oil
for brother Oris.
It seems as if oil demand has taken a big hit. I assume
this is caused by the setback in the far east.
The producing countries are slow to adjust in cutting back
and have never been able to cooperate in their "cartel".
Opec only worked in periods where demand was very
high and couldnt be met anyway. A cartel didnt make
any difference.
These oil prices are dropping WITHOUT the
benefit of extra Iraqi crude on the market.
However, we may be getting close to the marginal cost
on some of the North sea producers. They may start
cutting back at 12/13 $/bbl ... the US producers are
probably starting to feel the pinch too . I dont know..
We had a warm Northern Winter followed by at least
a perceived decrease in Eastern oil demand... so we
had high inventories coming out of winter and then
an additional schlonk in demand. Looks like that to me.
I dont like it at all. Falling oil prices are

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:24 - ID#340344)
Don't go Far, fel.
To paraphrase the title of an old Uncle Scrooge story, without
F* we would be more like "just plain Arfel."

F*, I appreciate your contributions, and I really have wondered how you and a few others can devote to us the massive amount of time that it surely must require to post so often and so well.

Occasional is better than never. And even if we add together many of us
small post-its, we still don't create a big poster! Heh

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:29 - ID#237149)
Gold heading south..
I'm aware of ANOTHER's prediciton for gold, but after today and with some CB anouncements to come, gold will probably retest its $280 bottom...

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:32 - ID#318118)
The market ( stock ) is doing some crazy things. Here is an example that is available now for those of you who would like grow you PM purchasing dollars. CNSI on the NASDAQ goes X dividend April 2, payable April 14 with a one time special dividend of one dollar per share. The stock sells for two dollars folks. All aboard!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:33 - ID#348129)
I hope your boys are buying....... SOON.
This PM market SUCKS.......
If, as I am suspecting, the idiot european CB's are dumping AU before their CB's have to freeze holdings, their lousy new currency will fly like
a plucked chicken.......

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:38 - ID#286279)
Old Soldier
Thank you for your reply to me the other night.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:40 - ID#286279)
Don't take any wooden nickels.

In a while crocodile.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:41 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother John,

Thank you for the informative answer.
I'm also worried about oil price being
so low - bad for POG in general.But I
feel some tension under the cover of
complete quiteness in the sea of the
precious metals. Something is there...
Some MobiDickGuy or what was the name
of this monster...

Thanks again, brother.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:41 - ID#410198)
Hopefully one day we will be able to shove this article up Greenspans butt

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:43 - ID#204244)
(selkirk pass) ID#204244:You are closing in!
Everythings is about CONTROL and POWER.

Gold is about power. Politic is about power.Sex is about power...

Even love is about power .....never heard about the power of love from Celine Dion from Quebec?

The wises men know who realy control who,and who is in power right now!

Gold is in the dulldrum....crushing...Get out AND GET OUT or stop weeping.The control and the power is obviously not there...!...FOR NOW!!!

BC is up 5 % more in the polls todays !

Dow is at 8700

Crystal Ball
(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:43 - ID#287367)
For those of you "hoping" gold shares will hang on here, check out
punch in $xau and stochastics ( at bottom ) . You will see that the $xau is giving a sell signal today on the daily chart. The weekly chart is into heavy resistance, and the weekly stochastic will likely turn down this week. I dumped all my PM mining shares yesterday, and will buy back later.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:46 - ID#220325)
Mike Sheller Welcome back
Your contributions are valued and were sorely missed. plese do not leave again without our permission ( which will be witheld ) .

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:47 - ID#342282)
Midwesterner re Alleghany
If you can give me an URL on Alleghany, I'll try to unravel it

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:48 - ID#368244)
New 100's, 50's, and 20's

These bill's are being removed everyday. When the time comes you will be
made aware when you should turn in the rest, and the time frame will be
short. I don't believe old ones are still printed.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:50 - ID#410194)
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released this afternoon:

Gold: Rose 89,484 ( ! ) troy ounces to 567,574

Silver: Fell 56,392 troy ounces to 90,447,333

Copper: Fell 542 short tonnes to 114,380

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:51 - ID#249285)
As with cycles they are very hard to predict to the day, but I think in this time frame we should see a bottom. If we do not get a bottom this week it will be in the first week of April. Imho

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:55 - ID#269409)
@ Realistic...ANOTHER, Oil Gold
AS Reagan would say, There you go again! Posting actual predictive quotes by way of "reality check!" Don't you know that when "ANOTHER's" prediction falls totally flat ( by Friday ) , we're going to hear a whole chorus of how his analysis is right on, and only his timing was off?

Not only that, but be reposting his quote, we're now going to see yet another round of linguistic deconstruction. You know, the meaning of the tense of the verbs, the meaning in the original Greek of ANOTHER's papyrus manuscripts, the meaning when read backwards, the hidden esoterica in the subtle "signals" it all relates to the dual Friday 13th between Eclipses theory...........

Personally, as I mentioned when ANOTHER's post first appeared, I find the link between oil and Gold to be mighty bearish for Gold short term. And now we have the news that oil has now dropped to a 9 year low as of today....

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:57 - ID#197289)

I don't follow GLG but the chart looks good.
You may want to look at this company - Richmont Mines on TSE.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 15:59 - ID#252127)

Can anyone tell me why Warren Buffet a shrewed investor and whose Berkshire Hathaway has the abundance of its money in shares -would say anything other than he did?
I quess that soon we will eventually know of any BH changes.
The CB's on the other hand love to announce gold sales, this in the face of massive currency problems globally.

Conclusion: Paper debt is the selected avenue of the world financial elite and one of them got a bit concerned and bought silver using the excuse of supply shortages -which by the way have been going on for some time.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:00 - ID#434189)
Dow Jones / Gold ratio ... 8751/291.7 = 30
This is an all time high, I believe.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:01 - ID#26793)
Let me try and confuse you about the purchasing power of a 1903 sovereign. I seem to recall that an unskilled laborer earned $10.50 per week in that general time period. That is roughly 2 days pay for the sovereign.

Another attempt is that a sovereign equaled $US4.86. Postage for a First Class letter was 3c ( someone please confirm ) so you could mail 162 letters. Today in the U.S. it would cost you $51.84 to mail 162 letters, while the sovereign has about $68 worth of gold at spot $292

I searched the web to try for more exact references but nothing came up. It is a good question.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:01 - ID#36156)
oldgoldpanner (henryd(GLG)) - Great, thanks!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:03 - ID#269409)
@ Apocolypse
A quart of wheat for a denarius, ( days wage ) and do not harm the oil or wine.....

Biblical book of Revelations, predicting high food prices but LOW oil ( and wine ) prices? during the coming tribulations of the Apocolypse.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:04 - ID#7568)

Apparently the central bank of Belgium will announce in a couple of days that they have sold another 300 tonnes of gold. The reason that they did not roll over their leases is that they sold the metal. My guess is that todays action is putting on bearish positions ahead of the announcement. More later.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:05 - ID#252127)

Good advise on RIC, it seems that this fine gold producer gets very little fanfare from the financial media.
There is a rumour circulating that there are large institutional holdings in RIC, do you know of its validity.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:16 - ID#252150)
Henry D.@Forget Glamis & buy some lottery tickets--the odds are better
Or better yet, buy some call options on the S&P.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:18 - ID#317193)
Six Days
I go off for a six day vacation with no computer or phone and return to find mozel and farfel will no longer tweek my simple mind together with talk of $280 or lower gold. Anybody possessed of any good news? How about this being an opportunity to buy gold at bargain basement levels! How about my futures contracts losses will be underwritten by Uncle Sam! How about gold at this price guarantees a shortage in the near future! How about I wish no ill for those in the stock market bubble but know history will claim victims to numerous to count! How about the silver lining in silver-it's cheaper! How about Another may be a fraud or a oracle but this matters not for gold will rise or fall based on factors contolled at this point by no one! Lighten up people. Find a reason to smile-like a belief in honest currency founded on gold which will rise as the derivatives implode and the major financial institutions of the world declare losses in the trillions and trillions of $US. OK, so it's hard to smile with that thought in your mind. If all else fails try thinking about your children and their children and the gift you are giving to them, one of the same gifts said to have been given to a newborn outside of Bethleham almost two thousand years ago. That's better, now I can smile!!! Tom

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:19 - ID#317193)
Six Days
I go off for a six day vacation with no computer or phone and return to find mozel and farfel will no longer tweek my simple mind together with talk of $280 or lower gold. Anybody possessed of any good news? How about this being an opportunity to buy gold at bargain basement levels! How about my futures contracts losses will be underwritten by Uncle Sam! How about gold at this price guarantees a shortage in the near future! How about I wish no ill for those in the stock market bubble but know history will claim victims to numerous to count! How about the silver lining in silver-it's cheaper! How about Another may be a fraud or a oracle but this matters not for gold will rise or fall based on factors contolled at this point by no one! Lighten up people. Find a reason to smile-like a belief in honest currency founded on gold which will rise as the derivatives implode and the major financial institutions of the world declare losses in the trillions and trillions of $US. OK, so it's hard to smile with that thought in your mind. If all else fails try thinking about your children and their children and the gift you are giving to them, one of the same gifts said to have been given to a newborn outside of Bethleham almost two thousand years ago. That's better, now I can smile!!! Tom

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:21 - ID#317193)
Sorry for the double post!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:21 - ID#317193)
Six Days
I go off for a six day vacation with no computer or phone and return to find mozel and farfel will no longer tweek my simple mind together with talk of $280 or lower gold. Anybody possessed of any good news? How about this being an opportunity to buy gold at bargain basement levels! How about my futures contracts losses will be underwritten by Uncle Sam! How about gold at this price guarantees a shortage in the near future! How about I wish no ill for those in the stock market bubble but know history will claim victims to numerous to count! How about the silver lining in silver-it's cheaper! How about Another may be a fraud or a oracle but this matters not for gold will rise or fall based on factors contolled at this point by no one! Lighten up people. Find a reason to smile-like a belief in honest currency founded on gold which will rise as the derivatives implode and the major financial institutions of the world declare losses in the trillions and trillions of $US. OK, so it's hard to smile with that thought in your mind. If all else fails try thinking about your children and their children and the gift you are giving to them, one of the same gifts said to have been given to a newborn outside of Bethleham almost two thousand years ago. That's better, now I can smile!!! Tom

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:24 - ID#252150)
It's not easy to not make money in the greatest bull mkt of all time
I'm reminded of David Feherty's comments on bad putting 2 weekends ago @ the PGA tournament. He said "When I missed a 2 ft putt, I did'nt get upset but felt that it was quite an accomplishment."

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:25 - ID#36156)
James (Glamis)
Options. ... Got it. ... Thanks ( impish smiley thingie ) .


(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:27 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.00 ( This is a new high. The Dow is at 620.10 in pre 1934 dollars )

Aragorn III
(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:29 - ID#212323)
Belgium sale
It's all in the spin. The bears growl from the hilltops that a central banks have sold 300 tonnes of cannon fodder. It seems to me that the same story when viewed from the other direction is bullish to a greater degree--somebody BOUGHT the gold. It wasn't left on the door step for birds to pick at or sold like pencils in a cup by a begger in exchange for donations. I repeat...somebody always BUYS this gold. The spin is always presented as bearish, the truth is always...the TRUTH. And that's no bull.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:29 - ID#375108)
Jack & Oldgoldpanner: RIC announced intention of a share buyback today as company considers its stock undervalued. See Richmont thread on SI for URL if interested. I don't own RIC but may consider a purchase down the road a spell.

Oh yes, ANOTHER seems to have been right on gold price move except for the direction ( but then I'm monday morning quarterbacking ) .

Spud Master
(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:29 - ID#273112)
LGB - just let it go, man.

Or else, make yer own brave prediction sos we can ridicules yous.

Spud makes his own:
gadolinium will go above $857/kilgoram in the next Korean war.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:32 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .250

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:34 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 49.61

Psilver Psyched
(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:35 - ID#216217)
Opinion re: Another
To date I have not joined those expressing opinions about the validity of ANOTHER's predictions. I will credit ANOTHER with providing very valuable input and discussion here at Kitco. His/her contributions has, and hopefully will continue to be, very thought provoking. I think it has been an underlying assumption by many of us that if ANOTHER was who he wished us to believe, then he would have an close knowledge of both the oil and gold markets. While speaking with a firm understanding of gold, his knowledge of oil affairs seems limited. On 3/7 ( 20:17 ) I posed questions about the present oil price effects on oil producers domestic economies, as well as, citing the US-Venezuelan pressure on Saudi Arabia. This was before the media had picked up strongly on the conflict between Venezuela & Saudi Arabia on oil production quota adherence. ANOTHER's reply of 23:16 showed confusion about the US-Venezuelan OPEC-busting connection. Furthermore, none of my other questions were answered.

Reality is that OPEC strength has been eroding for years. The effect of today's market price on their domestic economies has reached a very painful level. ANOTHER has predicted something to happen this past week. A calculated risk prediction. I guess, I agree with ANOTHER's assessment - if OPEC could do something to bring about an end to the present oil price crises they would do so RIGHT NOW. I agree.

Unfortunately IMHO, the gold market is not cornered ( except in the short term by CBs ) and there is no power behind the "oil for gold" scenario being presented. If gold has been used as partial payment for oil, I cannot say. What can be observed by the continued painful endurance of present market conditions is that the party receiving this gold for oil payment lacks the power to dictate the market as ANOTHER describes.

Just as in retail purchases, sometimes you would like to write a check. If the retailer won't accept your personal check, you pay cash or use a credit card. In oil, someone may wish to receive partial payment in gold form. If the oil purchaser refuses to pay in gold, the producer will accept dollars. The producer has no choice!

Go gold... ( but for other reasons ) .

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:40 - ID#287312)
I gota what if for ya.
What if the Japanese are, and have been selling tresuries and the Gubment is buying them pack with freshly printed greenbacks. How long can they keep this DOW engine running before the world figures out it's afloat with green paper. Another year maybe ?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:41 - ID#252127)
Novice; thanks for the RIC info

Remember that someone had to buy that Belgian gold____if that rumor is fact. Value would be around $3 billion, chump change for many countries and a couple of handfull of indiviguals.
Mr Hashimoto, they insulted you in Denver; time to act.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:41 - ID#349232)
chas re: 15:47 - Allegheny's requested URL
Sorry to take so long to answer you. I run a business so I periodically check Kitco during the day.

The URL for the last press release I'm having problems understanding is at: ( You'll have to cut & paste as I can't seem to figure out how to get it from selecting 1/2 of the total URL )>

The prior one which shows the results of 10 slant holes is at:

then click on the release 1997-07-08.

Thanks for anything you can tell me.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:47 - ID#269409)
@ Realistic....Silver
With silver holding firmly at the $5.88 level most of the session, is spite of massive attack and fund selling pressure, and with drawdowns on Comex 2 days running, and with Buffet story effect pretty much completely played out now, and with Silver mining shares showing relatively strong resilience.......would you concur that Silver appears to finally be building a firm base of stronger support, from which we could very well see a strong upward trend based more on fundamentals, than manipulation?

That's my take. I think we have a healthier silver market ahead of us. I'm even considering derivitaves once again...though maybe I'll just buy some shares in Paasf, and SSC. Lot's of physical already, and all purchased around $4.40 average buy price last July/August.

Gold, on the other hand.......I still believe in that $280 bottom, but leaning toward your flat trading range possibility for the forseable future. I'll stick with my "Saints" accumulation...bargain prices, resistance to further drops, potential for gain as the supply seems to be drying up due to strong resurgance in Numismatic market.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:51 - ID#26793)
Interesting afterthought on the 1903 wages for a laborer of $10.50 in gold here in the US. At $6 per hour for unskilled labor you earn $240 per week. Deduct $17 for Social Security and $26 for Federal tax at the lowest tax rate. Takehome pay $197. With sovereigns at $84 you can buy 2.34 of them! Exactly the amount of a unskilled laborer in 1903. There were no taxes on wages in 1903.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:55 - ID#267276)
Gold coins
To all:
About 3 months ago I bought some St.Gaudens and Double Eagles ( pre-1933 ) . I paid $450 and $455 for GS62. I recently received a offer to buy GS 61 for $549 in the mail from a large texas company. This is either a rip off or the price is going up for these coins. GS 62 is a higher grade than GS 61.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:58 - ID#252127)

Remember that oil turns the global machine -if some disgruntaled producing countries turn down the spigot big problems can occur.
If you are a producer with little less than oil as a cash product, you might have to consider being payed in something other than paper as your future may very well be limited, by new either technology and even possible new discoveries.
It is any wonder why so much gold passes through the middle east, does anyone really know how much stays.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 16:59 - ID#431263)
$7.00 OIL!!!
Wayne Angell believes we could see $7.00 oil before enough western production gets shut in to balance supply with demand! Can you imagine what this is gonna' do to Mexico and Venezuela? MORE CURRENCY DEVALUATIONS ON THE HORIZON!! Where's Camdessus when ya' need him?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:00 - ID#269409)
@ DigDeep
"GS" designation confuses me. The only genuinely reputable certification services for "Saints" are PCGS and NGC. They use the standard "M/S" grades of MS 61, MS 62, etc.

Saints have remained firm in price, even as POG fell, but they aren't up in that region of a 61 or 62. More like $460 to $500 depending on other factors.

If "GS" is some unkown third party grading designation, it has little meaning relative to value or your "Saints", and they'd best be viewed as "raw" brilliant Uncirculated, worth approx. $420 to $480 range, depending on numerous factors including eye appeal, and actual grade.

Prices vary wifely amongst dealers, with some selling "Saints" at astonomically high, ripoff retail levels. That's what you have to watch out for.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:02 - ID#246224)
Let's keep our eyes and ears open.
We are witnessing one of the greatest market blow offs of all times. This is something we have read about. Often times we shake our heads at those back in 1929. "How could they have been so foolish?" we think. Well, look around and I think your agree that when everyone is into to this up to their eyeballs it is very difficult to NOT be swept away. Also consider your own emotional state. We would all like to be vindicated by a major turn in gold ( and contiued run in silver ) ans a stiff drop in the equities markets. One's 'contrarian' attitude is sorely tried in such times. It takes guts to be so completely OUT. Do you have the guts to deal with this??? Get focused. Do not be fooled. Think long term.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:04 - ID#26793)
Former Sec. of State James Baker calls Japan "inept" in dealing with banking system

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:08 - ID#324209)
S&P 500/Gold Ratio hits new high, too.
For whatever it's worth, the S&P 500/Gold ratio hit a new high today, as well, at 3.704. The S&P is now 32% higher than the absolute peak day in 1968 ( 2.802 ) and 139% ( ! ) higher than the absolute peak day in 1929 ( 1.547 ) . Wow.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:08 - ID#269409)
@ Brain scramble
All, please excuse bassackward writing style. Unable to write an articulate post anymore, even allowing for and ignoring the typo's...damned heart medication!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:10 - ID#288369)
@Allen (America)......
I was pretty well focused ( on the muzzle of this Colt Python ) until Cheesehead said $7. a barrel oil...Ohmy! I'll say blowoff! Momma, I'm comin' to see ya'!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:11 - ID#410198)
Digdeep,I'am assuming you mean MS(mint state) GS is a new one...
if the coins you bought were certified by NGC or PCGS you got a good buy,as for the flyer in the mail,bend over,current wholesale bid MS 62 Saints/Libertys $475.00 bear this in mind some dealers may pay a little more depending on outstanding orders these things are getting tough to get in quantity,and yes the prices have been moving higher

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:13 - ID#431263)
Venezuela down 2.38% today! Russia down 4.49% BOTH OIL PRODUCERS!!! Sign of things to come!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:13 - ID#410198)
Digdeep,I'am assuming you mean MS(mint state) GS is a new one...
if the coins you bought were certified by NGC or PCGS you got a good buy,as for the flyer in the mail,bend over,current wholesale bid MS 62 Saints/Libertys $475.00 bear this in mind some dealers may pay a little more depending on outstanding orders these things are getting tough to get in quantity,and yes the prices have been moving higher

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:16 - ID#246224)
Coin ad sent to our home through the Carol-Wright distribution company ..
single Morgans for $38.00 each ( no grade mentioned ) ! Ad phots looked like junk coins to me. They also had sets of gold and silver coins. 1 oz 1903 old eagle XF for $959.00 I think I'm in the wrong business, folks.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:16 - ID#26793)
Mexican interest rates rise sharply (250 basis pts) at weekly 28 day auction

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:19 - ID#217268)
DigDeep @16:55
The two most accepted coin grading services are PCGS ( Professional Coin Grading Services ) and NGC ( Numismatic Guarantee Corporation of America ) . MS stands for Mint State. Once graded by either of the above, the coins are sealed in hard, clear plastic holders with bar codes and a hologram. The coins have now been "slabbed". This guarantees the buyer and seller the authenticity of the coin. I would be very leary of any other grading service. PCGS and NGC will grade any coin for you for about $25. with about a 4-6 week turnaround. You might call Blanchard and Company, Jefferson Coin, etc. to confirm.

IMHO, "slabbed" and MS62 or higher is the way to go. Cheers.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:26 - ID#26793)
Venezuelan stocks slump 2.38% on oil price crash

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:29 - ID#210235)
Yikes! All the unknowns today. Unknown USD overseas, creating unknown future calamity at unknown future time. Unknown hundreds of trillions of dollars cast about in global derivative trades. Could be more than that if the BIS alone has 85 trillion exposed. It's all making me a little sea-sick.

One thing's for sure. There are a lot of professional money managers who aren't at all concerned about all of the above. Outside of this forum, and a few tens of thousands at SI, there is just enormous complacency. Just yesterday I challenged a college instructor ( CPA ) who was instructing his students that the stock market was a safe place to put money because of the SEC's regs. He felt that all risk due to leverage that had caused the '29 crash was completely eliminated. He just had no idea of derivative exposure in banking or in the pits ( S&P futures, Dow futures, etc. ) and how they created leveraged positions that could take the market down.

Oh well. Guess the Siren song of instant wealth for all hasn't lulled quite everyone to sleep yet. Thanks for staying awake, and taking the time to post.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:31 - ID#267276)
Sorry you are right they are MS GRADE. I am a novice at coins and got my letters screwed up. Im a pro at gold stocks only down about 33% in the last year and a half. However I recently bought some Freeport Macmoran for 14 and 7/8. It has gone up to about 16 and 1/2 today. It has a PE of about 15 and a large copper business. If it were not in indonesia it would be about double. Thanks

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:34 - ID#431263)
9300 BY April FOOL'S DAY?
Just did a screen of GM, GE, IBM, MSFT, MRK, FNM, CCI etc. and they're all goin' parabolic! We are within days of a classic equity mania blow-off spike and key-reversal to the downside on heavy volume ( over 1 BILLION SHARES ) . This is the event I'm waitin' for to convince me that the paper mania is over and the hard asset mania has begun! Should see Abby's 9300 or higher by the end of March--and then---Look out BELOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:35 - ID#39845)
God damn defence depatment doing what it god damn pleases.
Wednesday 18 March, 1998 ( 7:57am AEDT )

The U-S State Department has denied claims that the
America military has circumvented a ban on direct aid to

Agnes Cusack reports, U-S Congressmen say the
Department of Defence is using a legal loophole to provide
aid to the Indonesian military.

The US congress banned military aid to Indonesia in
1991, after its military crackdown in East Timor. The ban
states military aid to Jakarta must be used to promote
human rights. But politicians here claim the Defence
Department has circumvented the ban by training troops
in psychological warfare and markmanship. State
Department spokesman James Rubin denies the charge:
"Itis our understanding these exercises are of a purely
military nature and are unrelated to crowd control." Mr
Rubin says the joint exercises benefit US interests.

Return to the World News Menu

plus from the Asia Pacific Region in Indonesian, Chinese and Tok Pisin

 1998 Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Wed Mar 18 08:00:00 1998 ( AEDT )

AEDT = Australian Eastern Daylight Time which is 11 hours ahead of UTC ( Greenwich Mean Time )

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:35 - ID#267276)
Thanks for the info. They are in hard plastic and bar coded as you said. I bought them from a local coin dealer who a friend dealt with for years. Im learning!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:36 - ID#26793)
If death and taxes are the only "knowns" I prefer the "unknowns" anyday, thank you!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:38 - ID#237149)
It's possible that funs may attack silver price down again tomorrow. If so spot price may kick in more sell-stops and go down to $5.50. We'll see...

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:39 - ID#237149)
Funds not funs
Altough they are having fun in jerking silver's spot price around...

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:40 - ID#195112)
Gold Bottom
In case you really want to know, gold will be bottoming the first week of May.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:42 - ID#431263)
Really only averaged 9%+ instead of over 23% as reported! Computing error! Forgot to account for monthly contributions! REMEMBER THIS AS ANOTHER SIGN OF EQUITY MANIA BLOW-OFF TOP!!!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:43 - ID#288369)
How in the hell do you know that? My advisor, Sheikh-en-Bake, has told me it's going to $360. by Friday. Huh?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:48 - ID#153116)
Echo Bay News
Two news stories from Yahoo about Echo Bay. Sorry, I haven't figured out how to paste URL's yet despite numerous training attempts.

Looks like someone didn't agree with this decision.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:49 - ID#26793)
Is that the same Sheikh-en-Bake who makes the golden dinars?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:50 - ID#26669)
So much for palladium
Seems to have lost some ground today. Oh well.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:53 - ID#431263)
Just did a screen of xau and hui gold stocks and all of them are forming minor up channels having bottomed a couple of months ago. I believe gold stocks have bottomed and will lead the new bull market in hard assets when the DOW and S&P BLOW-OFF and REVERSE! The financial crisis that will ensue will ultimately lead to their nationalization! Buy foreign mines or have your profits confiscated by our good uncle!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:55 - ID#259400)
Sound Familiar
40 Years ago when I was in high school my father gave me his
views on capitalism. They went something like this. Pure
capitalism is doomed to failure because the wealth and money
created by it are constantly moving toward fewer and fewer
hands. The rich get richer and the poor either get poorer or stay
static. Government trys through a variety of means to prolong
the cycle. Mangagement of interest rates smooths the business
cycle and adds years to it. Taxes and redistributing the wealth
add more years to the larger cycle. Eventually all is doomed to
failure as the wealth of the nation gets concentrated into fewer
hands. Fiat currency is part and parcel of this whole thing.
Managing interest rates and redistribution of wealth can only go
so far. In order to add decades to the larger cycle of boom and
bust government must be able to create money from nothing. A
100% gold backed currency prohibits that. Government cannot
tolerate a gold standard and must have a fiat currency for the
system to work. Once you have a currency based on credit you
can really start to add decades to the cycle. Eventually all the
wealth will still be concentrated at the top but the time to
accomplich this can be stretched out over lifetimes instead of
decades. 40 years ago he predicted a great collapse would occur
again. He did not think it would be in his lifetime but it would
likely be in mine. He said my children would have no first hand
memory of the great depression and would have to relearn all
the mistakes made in the past. All this leads up to gold. If
government cannot compete with gold and must maintain fiat
currency for the game to continue to be played what makes
anyone think gold will go up in price? Just asking.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:57 - ID#234218)
@ TYoung Re:16:18 and Allen(USA) re: 17:02
My compliments on both these posts. It's often hard to stay focused when predictions and expections are positive and high and then to be let down. It grates on ones nerves and totally disillusion. I have not been in gold investing but a short time and it frustrates me. One minute it's "HERE WE GO, WE"RE ALL GONNA BE RICH" then it's "WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED".

It would be nice to make all the money one dreams of in a month or two of investing, but it just don't happen that way. It's tough to stay in the game and stay confident with all the build ups and let downs and contrary opinions. However, I know that financial turmoil is around the corner. When? I don't know. Current world situations are warning us, Prophets of the distant past foretold of it, Bible prophecy tells us it will happen and if you search your common sense you know it to be true.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 17:58 - ID#288295)
Just curious - who was your source for the 9300 top?? It seems to me that our Elliott Wave Friend from France was showing about that on his chart for the peak, just before the FAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALL.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:00 - ID#431263)
Abby Cohen.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:04 - ID#431263)
Merck's weekly chart looks like BC's phallus at full erection, crook and all!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:05 - ID#288369)
One and the Same...Another one...etc., Sheikh-en-Bake and the Colonel grew up across the street from each other in Kentucky...started fryin' squirrel at Cub Scouts on weekend outings. Had a big falling out over the concept of extra crispy....Sheikh started cookin' without oil and selling the oil instead...and the Colonel started swappin' gold for chickens...which ultimately led to "finger-lickin' golden chicken"....and a whole lot more gold and golden fried chicken. This should help explain the chicken/gold ratio.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:05 - ID#234218)
Finish my 17:57 (hit the wrong #$#^%& button)
My point being, that the worst that can happen is that you leave your children or grandchildren something of value and protection. It would be nice to make a huge profit, but my goal it to try and protect what's mine. If I make a bucket of money fine. If not it is something for later generations that they may not otherwise have. It sure makes the "bumps" and depression a lot easier to endure. It makes it easy to stay committed to what I think is right.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:08 - ID#347235)
Snowball,Silver baron all
Keep the faith the time to buy all the gold you can get is when it is cheap, I pland to spend about 3 years worth of my retired pay which I have been saving since I am still working for the Army as a civilian. Buy all you can as long as you dont borrow money then we can all enjoy the ride up!!!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:09 - ID#431263)
Everybody wants a piece of the DOW before first quarter earnings are announced! After that they'll all want a piece of the XAU!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:12 - ID#195112)
Studio R
Well, if you promise not to tell anyone, I got the word from my astrologer. And, oddly enough her predictions have been uncannily correct. I do fundamental analysis, TA and poke my nose out the window. I've got to tell you, based on what's happening in the world these days I've just about given up trying to make any sense of it so I'm going with the stars!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:12 - ID#431263)
Valuations are not relevant in a market blow-off! It's all about money flows and momentum! This is what is now driving this euity bubble!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:13 - ID#368244)
Off The Wall, but thanks

I really took a serious hit today, but want to say thanks to all . I know many of you don't feel much like smiling, but you do anyway. Hell , look at the bright side, gold has an intrinsic value of $5.00. Our turn will come.

Bully Beef
(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:14 - ID#260119)
I've only look at this site for 1 or 2 months and......
Today must be a record for posts.i don't have time to read them all. Don't let it happen again!!! Neurotic compulsive. Something wonderful is going to happen. Right ANOTHER? 2 days and counting. Big sell late this after noon I think.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:15 - ID#233199)
Mr. Claw -

I'm interested but concerned.
After the stock drops $1.00 the day after the payment is there any reason to believe the stock will still be worth even $1.00?

Could it be that the primry holders are just looking for an easy way to get some $$ out before thet abandon their positions?

Is there any reason to belive all this hasn't already been disounted by other smarter than myself?

DO you know anything of the fundamentals of this company that would give me reason to believe it might recover?

Are you associated with this company?

If you'd care to it and want to keep the Kitco forum focused on Gold I'd really appreciate your feedback.

( )

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:16 - ID#431263)
Can't have a market top with GE, FNM, IBM, CCI, MRK and utilities making new all-time highs! Watch 'em like hawks and when they give the sell signal--SELL LIKE HELL!!!!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:18 - ID#233199)
Re: Nabuki

So ? What DID your astrologer have to say?

Care to share?


(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:19 - ID#233199)
Re:? Nanyuki Sorry about the mispelling

Mea Culpa

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:22 - ID#342282)
I could not access the 10 hole results. For the first url, what has been said appears to be a split on eaither side of existing other owners. I'm not familar with the dimensions of the others, but it seems they have located a masive s deposit extension. These can be from vertical to horizontal orientation. This is horizontal. Values not bad, but area and thickness outlined are not " very" big. It looks like they are expecting an increase in volume from further exploration. If the rest is not too clear, email me and I'll answer the questions if possible. YAW

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:23 - ID#288369)
You're mighty cool, my friend.....Here's to a better day! Chin up and Cheers!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:24 - ID#26793)
Oil price decline leads to credit downgrade of US producer

Mike Sheller
(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:26 - ID#347447)
Yes, what DID your astrologer have to say?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:26 - ID#431263)

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:29 - ID#288295)
I think you're right.....This is a MELT-UP, just what AG was warning against, and now he is absolutely powerless to stop it - money flow is the name of the game. There is just no way this story is gonna end up good for most people, or for the world in general. Looking for your guidance when it comes time to double-down on my 98 LEAP puts. One thing I'm not good at seeing ( and worse at predicting ) is a top.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:32 - ID#195112)
Always care to share. She says basically we are in for a bumpy ride from here to the end of the quarter. The main dip will come the 1st week of May and the price will trend higher from there. FWIW

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:42 - ID#57232)
Brief post -- busy day
Marcus: Thanks for your excellent post on M1,M2,M3. Your analogy with nature makes sense. Any system that moves too far away from equilibrium is likely to return with a big move. I can think of dozens of examples, from the forrest fire/conservation link in Yellowstone, to the quantum mechanics of lasers ( excess excitation of forbidden states ) , nuclear energy, earthquakes, and tidal waves.

I would add something to your post -- it is not just M1,M2,M3 unfortunately. It would be if the US dollar were not the world's currency. Every CB in the world has US dollars in reserve, and will not hesitate to dump them if their currency is in jeopardy -- such as Greece on last Friday. Perhaps more so now that people are dimly realizing that gold may be more valuable than dollars at current prices. And as Donald has pointed out, we really do not know how many dollars are outside the US, in addition to the known dollar reserves. Also as I think you pointed out, AG would be tightening our economic purse strings if the US economy was not so intricately linked to the world economy -- now at risk for another round of currency devaluations.

I sense that a sequence of events are playing themselves out -- and -- AG -- like us -- may have little control over the ultimate outcome. Looks like his international 'damage control' efforts are winding up inflating the US stock markets, reminiscent of what lead up to the stock market collapse of 1929. But this time -- there will be less savings to fall back on, or subsistence farming to keep food on the table. Our public welfare system/debt-based economic system -- supported by both parties -- has discouraged independence, or the need to save.

Donald: Never expected that our next round of currency devaluations might come from an unlikely source -- cheap oil!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:42 - ID#288295)

R. Nolan your source, or other?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:43 - ID#376309)
My ears were ringing today around noon time.

Gold seems to be under pressure again. I was short coming into today's session. Perhaps I should stick to just trading gold. I seem to be better at it than trading other commodities. THere is good support for gold around $290.5 to $391.0. I was thinking of coving my shorts around there but talk of more central bank sales could push us through that. Someone mention today that this move would bottom around the first week in May. That would be a good guess. The stock market is just doing too good right now and crude oil is getting crushed. Both will reverse this year for good.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:45 - ID#376309)
obviously that should be "$290.50 to $291.0"

(Tue Mar 17 1998 18:59 - ID#431263)
Herr Glenn--Why ain't you tradin' SPOOS instead of gold! Seems to me you'd be havin' a lot more fun than shorting the yeller' stuff! : )

Old Soldier
(Tue Mar 17 1998 19:13 - ID#238299)
Advisability of U.S. citizens moving assets offshore
For some time now I have noted the assumption by several U.S. posters that getting physical assets offshore would protect them from confiscation by the U.S. Government. While this may be true, it does not protect from confiscation by the offshore government. Some of the offshore governments discussed are way less stable than the U.S. All offshore governments are going to have less regard for foreign investor rights than they do for their own citizens. About the only very stable non-U.S. government with a history of caring for the assets of foreigners is Switzerland.

Lets assume you are in the U.S. and things go to hell. I doubt that assets in Switzerland will do you much good. Now if you have very large assets and can get to Switzerland perhaps the offshore strategy will workout for you.

Im not too concerned about U.S. confiscation and I think that no matter how bad things get worldwide, the U.S. will still be about the best place to be for U.S. citizens.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 19:17 - ID#431263)
Garzarelli predicts 11,000 before 2,000! April Fool's Day lookin' better and better for gold!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 19:17 - ID#35767)
YEN And Crude
At least they are two way mkts interday unlike the PM which are under attack. Made profitable trades in both today /not mucho but better than gold.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 19:21 - ID#195112)
Silverbaron Re: Nolan
Do you know her work?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 19:23 - ID#431263)
Beardstown Ladies off only $60,000 on a $10,000 investment! 9.1% return instead of the purported 23.4%! More like govt. accounting!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 19:29 - ID#238295)
DA; Thanks for the info re Belgian CB selling gold. But if everybody already knows about it, gold could well rally when the announcement is made. Sell the rumor, buy the news.

Golden Chessehead: Valuations don't matter in a liquidity driven market. That's what they were saying in 1987.

BTW, Wayne Angell also is predicting $250 gold ( perhaps he has lowered his target further of late ) . He has made some great calls and some awful ones. $7 oil will lead to upheaval in Saudi Arabia if long sustained. I do not think this is going to be one of his better calls.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 19:29 - ID#35767)
Looks like the play, at least there is a powerful constituency for the up. Gold will explode but only when others implode.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 19:29 - ID#341189)

(Tue Mar 17 1998 19:31 - ID#431263)
Moneyline just reported that today is the first anniversary for last year's shake up in the Dow! New entries up 48% since last March 13% better than the stocks they replaced. Dow up 200-250 pts MORE THAN IF THEY HAD LEFT THE OLD STOCKS IN! Hey, if it worked once.........!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 19:33 - ID#431263)
Herr Old Gold--I agree with you! Point is it's 1987 revisited!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 19:38 - ID#288295)
Yes - I have R. Nolan's January thru April chart in front of me, and have been charting Au above it. So far, there is a vague correlation in the shape of the two charts, with a little lag between the forecast trend and the actual price peaks and valleys. However, I find no correlation whatsoever between the actual price extremes and the forecast trend extremes. For example, her trend chart forecasts the 4-month short-term top on Mar 4-5 and the actual top ( so far ) was way before, around Jan 27-28. I find the work interesting, but ( so far ) not particularly useful for me.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 19:39 - ID#228283)
@ all...

Interesting last 3 sentences of this.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 19:41 - ID#346458)
chas re: 18:22 -- Allegheny Mining Co.
chas let's try getting to the correct URL with this.

Company information can be found at the URL below. At the first page, click on ISDN for all press releases, then select the 1997-07-08 for the results of the 10 slant holes.

1998-03-03 is the press release I'm trying to figure out. By the way, Allegheny controls all of the 4.35 miles which includes Lone Hill and the area under the water of Three Mile Bay, ect.

You wrote, "I'm not familar with the dimensions of the others, but it seems they have located a masive s
deposit extension. These can be from vertical to horizontal orientation. This is horizontal." Is horizontal move or less favorable than vertically?

You wrote, "Values not bad, but area and thickness outlined are not "very" big. It looks like they are expecting an increase in volume from further exploration". Could you look at the results of the 10 slant holes as shown above and give me your opinion?

Sorry I'm so slow at trying to get this info for you. Had trouble with the links. My son, who I started on learning computers 9 years ago when he was 8, now laughs at me as he has far surpassed my ability. ( and is much faster ) Thanks for your help.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 19:50 - ID#25255)
LGB--"Apocalypse Now"
Please! Proper terminoloby is a necessity during these "days that try men's lives". I take it that you mean "Cataclysmic" in your reference to upcoming days and events. An Apocalypse is an unveiling of things to come in a more prophetic sense. Open your eyes, and you will see the Apocalypse unfolding even as we speak. The Cataclysm is even at the door.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:00 - ID#228283)

Help! Need some varifications that the Russians are running out of platinum and palladium. Are there any storage facilities for these two metals? If so,are there any reports of how much is in stock and available? One would think that a shortage of either would be bullish for all.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:06 - ID#267276)
The Plan
Here's what I think! If you look at the world of politics and its dependence on big money ( actually owned by big money ) you can see a pattern between the bulls*%$ that the public is fed and the movement of certain legislation. Right now the government is trying to pass funding for the U.N. and the IMF, it is also engaged in trade agreements such as the Sub Saharan Africa agreement and the very evil unamerican agreement on international investment. All of these and others are unconstitutional and will take rights away from americans. If the stock market were to crash it would upset the applecart and cause public outrage and expose the plan. Things like clintons folly's, abortion, affirmative action and other problems that dont affect the control of money, resourses and power are just used to take the publics eye off the ball. Resourses like gold, oil, agriculture and so on are being quietly accumulated by those in places of power. If you notice there is hardley a resourse that does not have a bad public reputation right now. Instead of bidding up the resourse like the Hunts did,it is being accumulated at bargin prices by a campaign of mis-information. A common sense observance and understanding of this will convince one to position themself in a likeminded defensive mode.
Corporations are totalitarian entities, ruled from the top down with an iron fist. Underlings who dont follow the rules will soon be looking for a new job. The status of the worlds largest corporations are such that soon stockholders will have no voice in corporate policy. The self perpetuating board of directors and chairmen intermingled in multiple corporate boardrooms representing the most powerful will rule as they please. When companies buy back stock, they only strengthen their hand, and if monopolies dont exist according to the government, they do exist in a de-facto reality. The problem that will arise when the stock market crashes is that the price of the stock may not really matter at any particular time to a cash cow companies board of directors. They will be positioned in the right place at the right time.
I dont have any good answers, just get your hands on real assets and pay attention to the workings of government. Good Luck

(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:07 - ID#206358)
China new premier name,great!interesting!

ZHU-- motherhood surname,means,RED!

ADD IT UP=STRONG CHINESE PREMIER!Think he going to reform the chinese
in very strong power!Even,in the forex devaluelation issue!
Tuesday March 17, 9:24 am Eastern Time

FOCUS-China's Zhu takes centre stage as Premier

( Adds reaction from Taiwan )

By Andrew Browne

BEIJING, March 17 ( Reuters ) - Zhu Rongji, China's reformist economic tsar, was elected
Premier on Tuesday with a mandate to oversee the most radical overhaul yet of crumbling state
industry and ailing banks.

The National People's Congress elected Zhu, 69, by an overwhelming majority and greeted the
result with thunderous applause in Beijing's Great Hall of the People.

Zhu replaces retiring Premier Li Peng, 69, who was elected head of the national legislature on

Nicknamed ``The Boss'' for his blunt -- even arrogant -- style, Zhu's challenge will be to keep the
economy growing amid the Asian financial crisis as he tackles deep-seated problems of waste
and inefficiency.

He could face a social explosion as his reforms throw millions out of work.

As vice-premier in charge of the economy, Zhu tamed galloping inflation that had reached a
communist-era high of 22 percent in 1994. Inflation is now around zero.

In his previous job as major of Shanghai, he dusted the cobwebs off a city that had suffered four
decades of neglect under communism and gave it a new sheen as the emerging financial hub of

Popular with foreign investors -- they dubbed him ``One-Chop Zhu'' for his ability to cut through
red tape -- the new Premier speaks fluent English and graduated with a degree in electrical
engineering from Beijing's prestigious Qinghua University.

Although not a political liberal, his compromising words avoided bloodshed in Shanghai during
nationwide pro-democracy upheavals in 1989 that were crushed in Beijing by army machineguns
and tanks around Tiananmen Square.

``A great country like ours needs somebody like Zhu to make us stronger and more prosperous,''
said Zhao Zhongheng, a Henan province delegate, after Tuesday's vote.

Poker-faced Zhu cracked a rare smile, stopped his furious scribbling on a notepad and took a
quick bow after the announcement of his victory came booming over loudspeakers in the
cavernous meeting hall. He was the only candidate.

Zhu already ranks third in the all-powerful seven-member Communist Party Politburo Standing
Committee. President Jiang Zemin, 71, ranks first; Li second.

The Asian financial crisis has stalled China's export-fuelled growth. The economy is officially
forecast to expand by eight percent this year, but some economists say the figure could be as low
as four percent. Last year, growth reached 8.8 percent.

Economic collapse elsewhere in Asia has highlighted China's own shaky financial system.
Commercial banks, saddled with up to $200 billion of bad debt, are technically bankrupt.

Zhu's strategy is to recapitalise banks and force them to stop lending to unworthy borrowers.
Tougher controls will be imposed by a central bank reorganised along the lines of the U.S.
Federal Reserve.

Zhu has decreed a three-year timetable for restoring loss-making state enterprises to health.
About 1,000 will be reborn as South Korean-style ``chaebol'' -- giant conglomerates that will
dominate the economy.

Many firms will be auctioned off, merged or closed, but rising unemployment is likely to spark
anger among industrial workers whose support underpins Communist rule.

Four million civil servants are to be fired after 15 ministries were axed in a government
downsizing. Around 3.5 million state workers will be laid off this year, adding to 7.9 million
already made redundant.

Zhu is expected to reshuffle the cabinet and nominate vice premiers, state councillors, ministers
and the central bank governor for endorsement by parliament on Wednesday.

One of Zhu's biggest policy concerns will be relations with rival Taiwan, where his election was

``I'm optimistic about Zhu's appointment because it shows China's commitment to practical,
economic issues -- especially those issues dealing with Taiwan,'' said economist Ma Kai of the
Chunghua Institution for Economic Research.

``It shows China is committed to increasing economic ties with Taiwan,'' Ma said.

Despite political estrangement dating to a 1949 civil war split and a 32-month freeze in
semi-official talks, China is Taiwan's top destination for private overseas investment.

In a separate vote on Tuesday, parliament voiced anger at rising corruption with a large protest
vote against the choice for top prosecutor.

More than one-third of 2,950 delegates voted against or abstained as Han Zhubin was elected
Supreme Court Procurator. Han, a former railways minister, was seen as lacking the skills for the

just me,JIN

(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:08 - ID#432169)
From SI - Interesting Comment ... Requested in be posted here.
People on SI thought their Kitco buddies would appreciate this:

From Barrons this week:

13D Filing - Homestake Mining

"German investor August von Finck holds 10,510,000 shares ( 7.1% ) , after purchasing his entire position from January 12 to March 5 at $7.84-$10.02 per share."

Comment of Poster: "I'm not plugging Homestake, I just found it interesting that someone from the von Finck family made a 100 million dollar bet on gold and he started buying right at the January bottom. The von Finck family is one of the richest and most well connected families in Europe ( For any conspiracy theorists out there, their name has been connected with the elite group of aristocracy and business leaders that supposedly dictate world policy ) . In any event, one would suspect August von Finck would not have made such a large bet if he was concerned about how much gold the European Central Bank was going to hold."

(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:09 - ID#348286)
@COMEX Gold stocks
Gold stocks rose over 89000 ounces today.
Could this be the real reason for todays sharp selloff at the end of trading ( and not any rumoured Belgian sale ) ? My guess is yes....
My take is that this is another pre-emptive strike against Gold taking off in the near future, after some unexpected announcement or event that would normally be bullish for Gold!
Remember, Gold IS a political metal!
Note this prediction, will do a followup on it in a weeks time.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:11 - ID#433422)
Do any of you guys read James Cook? He wrote a book titled

THE GREAT GOLD COMEBACK. I definately recommend it.It's available at no charge from Investment Rarities Inc.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:13 - ID#286199)
EMU and Gold
I have been visiting EMU sites and requesting information on dates and gold reserves. Today, I received this quote by email:

"In my view, the important issue is the fact that, under the provisions of the Treaty of Maastricht, the founding document for EMU, all the reserves, both currencies and gold, of all the central banks of the member states will be controlled by the ECB. This means that, whatever the level of gold in the initial pooling of interests process, the ECB will have effective control of about 14,000 tonnes of gold. And everyone expects ECB policy to be dominated by Germany, France and Italy, all of whom are very much in favour of countries holding gold in their reserves."

Patience, a little while longer....

(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:13 - ID#342376)
TORO LOCO.......
Since there have been predictions out there that the market will got to 10,000 or 11,000 or even 12,000, it just might. This market is working only on mania and greed. People won't want to miss out on this "last act of a three act play". The run up should be quick though. Watch for the run up to slow down and stop. I might even move some of my funds into it just for the adrenaline rush. Of course, the day I move funds into it, is surely the last day of the longest bull in this century. Yes, I do have that much power over the markets, don't each of you feel you do too?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:19 - ID#195112)
I have not used the charts for gold but just very succesfully used it in an oil driller play using the oil chart. Combining my experience with the drillers and her chart I literally sold all my positions at the very top of this last runnup. It was one of the most successful trades I've made. I bought back in at the height ( or low as the case may be ) of todays feeding frenzy. I may be a little early but that's ok I was in the plus column at the close.

Clearly if you look at her predicition for the DOW this week she missed the mark but watch the Platinum chart.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:21 - ID#227290)
Market Comments
To all:

Not a pretty picture. I'll now admit that the technical theory I
have been working on in the current move in the metals has not
been correct.

In gold: The monthly chart put in an "outside month" reversal in
January, followed by an "inside month" consolidation in February.
I expected March to be a follow-through to the January reversal.
We have not gotten this to date, and with today's action, my
perspective is in serious trouble.
But it is not quite doomed. Today's low of $291.30 is still a
full dollar above the February low. If the Feb. low holds, we
are still in business and we could see a powerful rally through
month's end. If gold breaks the Feb. low, then a retest of $285
is most likely for starters.

In silver: The price has now broken the 100-day MA, a negative
sign. Still, although things look bleak, it takes more than one
daily close below or above some technical marker to confirm the
breakout or breakdown. So, we'll have to wait a day or two
before pronouncing a breakdown in silver on the weekly chart.
If silver does give us more breakdown, then the Jan. low of $5.42
or the 200-day MA at $5.34 are the next logical stopping points.

In the XAU: We are close to a breakdown, but not yet. The 100-
day MA sits at 72.08 and the XAU closed at 72.80, 72 ticks away.
We are still above the Feb. low.
Someone mentioned that the stochastics gave a sell signal today.
But it takes more than one daily close to confirm a sell or buy
signal. By week's end, a turnaround could easily negate that
sell signal. We'll have to wait.
As for now, both the 100-day MA and the Feb. low have held. I
don't "feel" like that will be the case at tomorrow's close. But
neither do I trust my feelings.

Barrick Gold: Is still well above both its 100-day MA and its
Feb. low. ABX is reeling from its 200-day MA, but is not close
to a breakdown. Also, the stochastics have not given a sell
signal here. So ABX, being one of the strongest of the XAU
components, is still in fair shape.

Coeur d'Alene: I have been beating the drum for CDE based on its
performance. But that performance has turned sour. The gap on
the daily chart at $10.00 is beckoning CDE to come hither. The
close today was $10.81. The 100-day MA sits just below $10. It
could be moving there. We'll see.

The dollar index: It has been nearly 11 weeks since the dollar
peaked at 101.68. Still, no breakdown has occurred. Today's
close was 99.98; the 100-day MA sits at 99.08. The stochastics
on the weekly chart are drifting downward. The possibility still
exists for a breakdown in the dollar and a corresponding breakout
in gold. It doesn't "feel" like that will happen, but our
"feelings" won't determine the outcome.

The U.S. T-bond: Yields broke decisively above the 100-day MA,
but didn't stay there long. The stochastics are at a turning
point now. The picture to me is very unclear. I'll have to wait
to see how it pans out.
I do know that in bull markets, positive market indicators work
better than they do during bull markets. This is why the Dow
Theory buy signal for the Dow and the Transports in Feb. worked
so well. Positive technical indicators in gold these past two
years have so far all turned out to be mirages. In bear markets,
positive indicators don't work so well.

What I would like to see happen is for the bonds to turn down,
the dollar to turn down, and the precious metals and the gold
stocks turn up. There is still a live possibility this will
happen, but bit by bit, technical damage is being done to this
upmove in gold and the precious metals sector. We'll see.

The Preacher

PS. -- a little long-winded tonight. LGB, I think the prophecies of Revelation you speak of have already taken place and are not things to look for in the future.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:23 - ID#342282)
Midwesterner re 1998-03-03
Got it. Will be back later. Re your son, don't feel like the lone ranger, I got one too. Will do my best.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:30 - ID#348286)
@goldhound 20:08
Great post. Veeeerrrrrry Interestinkk .....

(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:30 - ID#342376)
R. Nolan
She predicted a "Land Mine" in the dow in February. She stressed it over and over. The exact opposite happened, a run up. What I got annoyed at is her not owning up to it in her recent issue. I believe in Astrology but the planets cant even overcome "Mad Bull Disease" to quote another Financial Astrologer ( Henry Weingarten )

(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:39 - ID#222231)
MARKET WAS +/- 4000


Every market mania has two major phases. First, there's the "MANIC PHASE"...that's when investors are wildly bidding up prices. Then there's the "PANIC PHASE"...when investors are so frightened they will dump thier investments at any price. That's the simplified version. When you look closer, the pattern becomes even more familiar.

First, demand rises and high prices follow. As prices rise, investors go deeper and deeper into debt. The cost of buying on credit is outpaced by the rise in prices. So, investors take advantage of cheap credit to keep participating in the MANIA.

Then, where knowledge is lacking, imagination fills the gaps. More and more amateurS are lulled into the market by glory storieS on the nightly news and self serving optimistic reports issued by the government. This stage has a double effect---as more and more people jump into the market, other amateur investors are convinced to jump in.

Next it's lies, lies, lies. Many investors are hungry for profits, but don't know what to do to get them. Unscrupilous market operators start drooling like cats in a canary store. Shady, deceptive dealS are everywhere. Companies lie about earnings. Mutual funds lure in investors with slick annual reports. And those are just the legal activities.

Meanwhile, as demand increases, suppliers try hard to keep pace. They churn out as much as they can of whatever the public is after---new mutual funds, corporate bonds, new stock offerings. The more they make, the more they can sell---until they get too ambitous and start making too much. Supplies surpass demand and prices start to level off.

Finally the bell starts ringing, but nobody listens. The market reaches a dangerous point. Warnings are issued by a growing no. of experts ( Almost always contrarians ) The warnings get more pronounced as risk increases. But the majority of investors usually mistake the warning bell for the sound of a bell ringing on a cash register. ( SOUNDS LIKE THE CURRENT STAGE. )

Suddenly, panic seizes the market. Prices go into a steep decline, like a warplane with its wings blown off. Almost every investor loses money, except the contrarians. Why? Because they took thier profits before prices turned sour. But rather than say "I told you so", they're busy snapping up premium investments now available at bargain prices.

As you might imagine, for most investors, market manias ultimately lead to big losses. But for those who understand how manias happen, they see nothing but fantastic opportunity.

The fact is, no matter what the majority of investors are doing, opportunity exists somewhere. WHEN ONE MARKET IS OVERPRICED, ANOTHER MARKET IS UNDERPRICED. There's only so much investment capital available. People can't afford to invest in every market at once. So, while others are dumping thier money in the OVERPRICED MARKET, you can go out and snap up the bargains in the neglected market. This is a cycle that repeats over and over again. AND WHAT'S ABOUT TO HAPPEN IN TODAYS MARKET IS NO EXCEPTION.


Doug Casey was expecting a meltdown in 1995 when the dow was +/-4000. The market has more than doubled since, and the music goes on and on. WHY?

1 ) Low interest rates. ( No real returns from CD's, etc. )

2 ) Massive Mutual Fund Capital inflows monthly.

3 ) IRA's, 401K's, retirement funds that are tax deferred.

4 ) Hype by experts ( so called ) , medias and government.

5 ) Creation of a delationary enviroment ( In Commodities, products, etc. )
( The only inflationary product are services. These inflationary products are more than offset by the prior. )

6 ) Government interference in a free market by manipulation with your tax dollars to defeat certain investments in lieu of other investments.

7 ) The perception of a strong dollar.

This is what I would call an ENGINEERED economic policy. Who knows how long they can keep it up? My prognosis is that with the major commodity, OIL, going down in price since the 80's, a perception of a strong dollar in place, low interest rates, a boost in earnings for many businesses ( regardless of Asia ) is going to happen. The worlds foremost engine of growth is ENERGY costs.

THINGS TO LOOK FOR A TURN IN GOLD, commodities, is a MARKET MELTDOWN as follows:

1 ) Oil prices above $20/bl.

2 ) A weakening dollar.

3 ) Interest rates at or above 7%.



(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:44 - ID#26793)
@Ersel: Platinum news

(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:46 - ID#227290)
Allegheny Mines Corp
To all interested:

I've looked over the press releases for AYM and here's the story I found. The latest drill results were published on July 8, 1997. The CEO said that the drilling had proven 20,000 tons of ( $89 per ton ore by my calculations ) .
Since then, no drilling has been done. Some preparatory exploration has been done and this has led management to suspect the ore body could be quite larger than 20,000 tons. The CEO has now said that up to 100,000 tons can be proven.
Two things: the 100,000 tons is still a long way from proven, and 2 ) 100,000 tons is not very much.

If there's more info that I don't have, then I'd appreciate seeing it. It seems like simple promotion that a jv has been discussed. There's not much there yet that I can see. There looks to be potential with a reasonable risk involved. But potential is all that there is for now. Unless there is another processing plant in the area that can be used, I doubt AYM would build anything for just 20,000 tons. I really doubt that 100,000 tons would make a mine because this ore is about .32 OPT gold equivalent. And 100,000 tons would only be 32,000 ounces of gold.

If I've missed something, please let me know.

The Preacher

(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:50 - ID#20167)
Digdeep, your plan
Your 20:06 post is very cogent. As to what we as americans can
do about it, I have a few suggestions.
The country is run by a criminal cabal which involves the white
house and its useful idiots, congress and the federal reserve.
We must have a plan to defeat them if we are to survive as a
constitutional republic. Here is what we as individuals can do.
1. Never vote for an incumbent politician. Drive them all from
office and give honest and selfless people a chance to serve
and make our laws as was intended by our founding fathers.
Pay them a decent salary to create a disincentive to engage in skulduggery which they are wont to do.
2. Never keep excess money in the banks. Use a generous percentage
of that fiat money to buy precious metals, or mining and ancillary
type companies. Eventually as more and more people participate the
fiat money system will collapse along with its attendant evils.
The people will eventually regain control of the money supply.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:51 - ID#252150)
Mike Sheller@It's Kwite Konceivable
that if you kwit Kitco you could run a kwik kerb business in your spare time & make a lot of money. But I would prefer you to stay.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:54 - ID#210235)
Maybe I'm a little slow, but the implications of the BIS information you posted a few days back has finally taken shape in my sorry brain. If the BIS had 85 trillion+ in derivative exposure, and that is only one bank. Whether we multiply this by 20 or 200 ( other really big banks ) , we're looking at more than a quadtrillion dollars worth of derivative exposure out there,counting only the biggest players.

I subscribe to the Dave Barry school of thought, and keep it really simple. I will henceforth refer to these as simply "really big numbers". Whatever triggers the next currency crisis, or stock market collapse, these are what will trigger the big asset deflation that will leave us walking around like zombies for a few days. Since I've been walking like a zombie today, I'll enjoy the company.

Glad you're comfie with such figures. It all comes from having seen it already and planned for it, I suppose. These really big numbers are a mite bigger than I had previously estimated. Seasick no more. Thanks for your patience.

Do you sleep well with these really big numbers jumping out at you from under the bed?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:56 - ID#411149)
nanyuki-my star lady chart also shows a low for the 1st week of
May, but she ain't been too right lately. How do you arrive at your

Date: Tue Mar 17 1998 17:53
Just did a screen of xau and hui gold stocks and all of them are forming
minor up channels having bottomed a couple of months ago. I believe
gold stocks have bottomed and will lead the new bull market in hard
assets when the DOW and S&P BLOW-OFF and REVERSE! The
financial crisis that will ensue will ultimately lead to their nationalization!
Buy foreign mines or have your profits confiscated by our good uncle!

GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD- that is a good suggestion and one of the threats of
owning the NA stocks. But don't buy the ADR shares, most any broker
can buy and deliver the ordinary shares! Then if the worst does happen
you have some options.

Tally Ho

(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:56 - ID#195112)
So what do you think of the letter? Have you taken it long? Obviously, her results are mixed.

I have been a lurker on this site for several months and a ways back there was a link to another astrological letter that predicted that the gold bottom would occur on April 20th.

By the way, IN MY NOT SO HUMBLE OPINION, the people on this thread are some of the most intelligent and inciteful people I have read anywhere on the net. And, my sincerest thanks to those of you with a sense of humor. You have made me laugh and made my day many a time.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 20:57 - ID#26793)
I will look for the post again. I recall it was 94 trillion, total, in all the 41 countries they supervise.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 21:01 - ID#26793)
Oops: It was 94.7 trillion for the last qtr of '97

(Tue Mar 17 1998 21:08 - ID#252127)
Mine Looking for a Quick Starup

From the Whitehorse Star Daily, some extra tidbits about United Keno Hill a silver producer.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 21:10 - ID#26793)
I take the 94.7 trillion to be turnover, not total. I am not sure but some expire, new ones are written etc. and we might be in error if we said 94.7 X 4 is the total outstanding at any one time. Help anyone?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 21:14 - ID#30116)
Recent perspective...
Daily chart of gold. The trend lines and moving averages are holding too well...

(Tue Mar 17 1998 21:16 - ID#411112)
Preacher:did you get my AM post on Ian Smith..... Over


(Tue Mar 17 1998 21:16 - ID#342376)
@ Nanyuki
I've read 2 issues so far. I'm not impressed. I've been a goldbug a bit now mainly for the reason of my screen name, but I've purchased one or two Put Options of the S&P based on her predictions. Needless to say, I havn't done well. Now, I'm even worried about my April expiration Puts. I read three Finacial Astrologers and they all said a top in the Market last week. This Market will end when it ends. I havn't a clue.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 21:21 - ID#30116)
Don't forget! This Friday is a Triple Witching session. Otherwise known as, "How do we burn the largest number of option holders." :- ) )

(Tue Mar 17 1998 21:22 - ID#267276)
The purchaser of the 7% interest in Homestake Mining was Baron August Von Finck, a rich german industrialist and a member of the group of 300. Others in his club are the likes of David Rockefeller, the Rothchilds, George Bush,Queen Elizabeth, you get the picture.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 21:24 - ID#410114)
Central Bank sales
Old Gold

I made the same comment to R.J. about his knowledge of a pending Central bank announcement as proof that the price had discounted the news. R.J. said that when the announcement was made gold would drop. It turned out that R.J. was right and I was wrong.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 21:26 - ID#411149)
nanyuki- I got a star guy who has been right on the money with
his reading of the astrological charts and he is looking for $550 for Aug. 98. Now I will go with the winners!

Tally Ho

PS- I bought TWO gas guzzlers this year from the profits
on them snp puts. But we don't need $7 oil not even $10.
Now iffin I can only figure out when to do them puts again.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 21:28 - ID#287358)
Good 'n' Funny
All: One of my favorite sites is Investor1. Great columns by
Kaplan, and the Jones Report is really funny in addition to being
"spot on." Recommend you visit today's Jones Report. For an
additional laugh, in his ( serious ) paragraph about oil,

substitute these for these

BC Saudi Arabia
President bonanza
Hillary reason

You may be able to add to this....

(Tue Mar 17 1998 21:37 - ID#20748)
Waiting to hear from you.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 21:40 - ID#210235)
Do you have a URL for the site?

Lurker 777
(Tue Mar 17 1998 21:40 - ID#317247)
Will $280 hold?
Someone please post a site where I can get overnight gold prices.

I own Dec. 99 270 & 280 puts now but those May 98 285 puts are only $130. Hmmmmmm

Has anyone dealt with AJPM or Southern Coins & Precious Metals?
Southern says they will buy Phillies for 3% over spot and AJPM quotes 3.5%.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 21:42 - ID#288369)
@Off Topic (Who me?)...I.E. 4.0 sufferers.....
On the advice of a friend, I downloaded from the latest version of Internet Explorer 4.0 ( called 4.01 ) seems to work better than the version I bought just 2 weeks ago at CompUSA. I recommend the download...sure seems to be friendlier to my ISP...and I know those guys hate ie 4.0.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 21:47 - ID#287358)
My columns disappeared...

Am trying this again...

Substitute "BC" for "Saudi Arabia"

Substitute "President" for "bonanza"

Substitute "Hillary" for "reason"

Also, now I realize that this site doesn't support the
making of spaces between columns. This explains the
occasional posts with run-on numbers, which I often
cannot figure out. I'd like to suggest that those who
post same try using "..." rather than blank spaces, to
present their work in a more readible format.

I still recall my parents extolling the virtue of "learning
something new, every day," and the thought of learning
something new every day is with me, every day. And now I
realize that learning something new every day is not enough,
as the world is spinning so fast that I feel the need to
learn A LOT of things every day, just to not fall behind.
This Kitco site is wonderful. So much to learn! Thanks all.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 21:50 - ID#401237)
A blood bath, not a happy site.^XAU+ASA+ABX+BMG+BGO+ECO+HL+HM+NEM+PGU+PDG+RYO+TVX+^HUI+AEM+CDE+FCX+GLG+KGC+WMC&detailed=f

How long can they hold on?

Royal Oak in Default of Senior Secured Debentures

Echo Bay to Defer Capital Securities Interest Payment

Echo Bay Vice President -Operations Plans to Leave Company

We keep waiting for the other shoe to drop and it may be overhead.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 21:51 - ID#287358)

Hey, I've just been "copyrighted" and "copy-righted" at the
same time. Cosmic. Heh.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 21:56 - ID#225273)
Yes, I got it. Copied the article to my hard drive and will read it tonight.

The Preacher

(Tue Mar 17 1998 21:58 - ID#287358)

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:01 - ID#25588)
Gold and Silver
May Silver and April Gold are on the projected paths to 5.50 and 280 respectively ( 2/19, 2/23, 2/28, 3/5 ) . The problem I see now is the weakness in the XAU and metal funds in general. They have to stabilize to prevent a collapse of the metals. Take half position in May silver at 5.60 and April Gold at 287 - 283. Use fairly close stops ( $500 or less ) . If the XAU stays close to even on the day as the metals retreat it will be a good sign these numbers will hold. If the XAU is plus on the day when these numbers are hit put on a full position. Beware if 5.50 is taken out the next objective is 5.25, if 283 goes next stop is the low 270's. I'm short May Silver from 6.10.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:03 - ID#335190)
Japan Selling US Bonds @ Who is buying bonds & Hashimoto wanted to sell and buy GOLD?



BACK in September 1995, the United States came to an agreement with Japan that then seemed of little consequence. Washington agreed that it would purchase U.S. government debt held by Tokyo in the event the Japanese had to sell.

Two years ago the Japanese were experiencing economic problems but nothing like the obstacles faced by that country today. The failure of Yamaichi Securities this week has caused the Japanese to do the unthinkable - take the U.S. up on its offer to buy those bonds.

It was unclear yesterday just how much of the $200 billion to $300 billion worth of bonds held by the Japanese government and its financial insitutions will have to be unloaded. But if Tokyo must cash in any significant amount, it could be very bad news for the U.S. financial markets.

I mentioned this agreement - long forgotten by everyone else - in a column last Friday that raised the very legitimate question: Why the heck are U.S. investors actually happy about Japan's financial problems and the way that country has decided to handle them?

That column pointed out that if the Japanese have to bail out their financial institutions, the only money available to do so is invested with the U.S. government. And if those U.S. government bonds are sold, then interest rates here will rise sharply and the stock market will fall decisively.

This column has been saying for months that problems encountered by the Japanese could cause serious consequences in this country.

The Japanese purchased all those bonds in the first place for a number of reasons. First, they were paying better interest than their own securities. But the bonds were also bought to help the U.S. in funding its budget deficit without causing interest rates here, and then worldwide, to go so high they'd put another hole in the ozone.

And if the purchase of all those billions in bonds kept rates low, then the sale of those very same bonds would drive rates up. How high? It depends on how bothered Wall Street becomes over the fact that the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve must now print billions of dollars in extra currency to ship to Japan in exchange for their bonds.

But let's not understate the effects. Japan's financial crisis, which has easily slipped across oceans in our newfound global economy is now at our doorstep.

If you didn't think the Asian financial crisis was dire when a number of tin cup countries came to us for money over the past few weeks, you probably believe it now with Japan essentially too broke to keep loaning its yen to Washington.

Yesterday, the Kyodo News Service of Japan announced that the Bank of Japan has asked the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to assist Japanese banks in raising dollar funds. Translation: Sell those bonds.

The Bank of Japan refused to comment on the Kyoto report. But if you know how that country works, the Japanese press got the story from official sources who then turn around and decline comment.

None of this should be much of a surprise to any of us. Remember last spring when Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto wondered out loud during a speech at Columbia University what would happen if the Japanese started unloading all its U.S. bonds? I guess that question wasn't just academic.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:03 - ID#401237)
STUDIO.R (off subject)

I am staying away from MSFT he scares me.
I logged onto the MSNBC the other day and had more trouble than I have ever had on any site. I couldn't leave the site without rebooting my computer .

He has everything rigged in his favor. And his products are put out with known problems. He forces his users to keep updating, and his OSs are not compatable.

Mac is;
of course Gates has paid Apple 100 million to use Explorer. I have had no problems with Netscape.

For what its worth.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:03 - ID#255190)
Look at it this way.

1 ) PM's are a 'buyers' market right now.

2 ) Equities are a 'sellers' market right now.

Which would you rather put your money into, a market which is starving for buyers or one that is overwhelmed with them???

Would you buy a house when prices were high or low? How about cars, high or low? We always 'go shopping' for bargains, things which are at the 50% off table.

Alot of folks who buy American Eagles as investment think this is a buyers market. 1996 sales of Eagles was about 250,000. 1997 just about 500,000. These prices are GOOD fo buying. Buy low, sell high. Buy now, sell later.

Belgium bank sells 300 Tonnes to SOMEONE, eh? Never hits the market. Market hears about this after the fact and sags. Why? Trader psychology? This metal never touched the floor, never saw a trade. Someone said a big purchase would send the message that gold should be in the 320-60 range. Is this the 'message'. We are only talking US$ 3 Billion here. Less than 2 hours of LBMA trading volumn.

Look at the gold charts. Look at history. 2 years +/- for a gold bear typically. When was the last time gold declined for three years: answer - never did. We are AT the bottom. Any little retest is just that. I'm ready to buy more. Will be waiting like a hawk for just the right moment then BAMB. Nab that sucker!!!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:03 - ID#210235)
I am quite content with "really big number", especially since it is quite obvious that the banks are mostly out of compliance with reporting derivatives and their risk re such. It's not the trigger, but it's the gun powder behind it that will make the explosion noteworthy.

Maybe Studio.R will parcel off his land so that we can plant our gardens there, in preparation for the simple life predicted earlier today. Where I live a little eighth of an acre is runs well into 6 figures. Not very practical for planting onions.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:03 - ID#411149)
That little article about them europeans buyin gold shares
is more important than any of OUR opinions as to which way
GOLD SHARES! Well dad gum, dad gum.

Tally Ho

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:06 - ID#256326)
Thanks friend. I am buying under 5.70 and 288.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:12 - ID#401237)

Does anyone know what Gold is doing, it seems as though we are in another blackout period.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:12 - ID#243180)
I've dealt with both dealers. I use them when they have the lowest prices. Seem to be reasonable firms. I'm fortunate ( in that ) I've never sold a coin,,,, I ONLY buy until the end is here and they I'll OWN THE FIRM,,,

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:14 - ID#28781)
@Preacher, reflections on technical comments earlier

Yes, there is some technical damage being done, however in Elliott wave terms one of the possible wave counts is for a triangle formation to be developing between 285 and 305, with the C wave portion now taking place. This type of formation is exhausting in terms of pyschology but not so in terms of price. Maybe a further injection of patience is needed here.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:15 - ID#30116)
Hmmmmmm............ Inverted UK Gilt yield curve? A rising FT-SE 100 in the face of this? Perhaps Bloomberg has the data wrong?

If the data is correct, then is inflation the concern in the U.K. or defending the pound? Perhaps their economy is too 'hot'...

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:21 - ID#341214)
Lurker 777: AJPM
Lurker 777: I'm just now starting a junk silver buying program with AJPM. Initials contacts via e-mail were good. They were courteous, helpful and responsive. The business is a family affair. I'll be sending in my first order soon. Will let you know how it goes.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:21 - ID#270315)
AOL P/E Ratio
Hey ladies and gentlemen!!! check out the price to earnings ratio on this gem!!! The market is not over valued at all?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:28 - ID#233199)
Seeking prediction

Assuming silver goes to $7.00 and Gold to $330 - what would be likely for SCC and DROOY?

All guesstimates gladly accepted ..

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:30 - ID#401237)

I think this is current, but who really knows?
Bid $293.80 Ask $294.30


(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:33 - ID#269245)
Someone posted an extremely resourceful interactive currency comparison graphs page a few weeks back. I beleive it was a Canadian, UBC site. I lost the bookmark. PLEASE REPOST!! I am having no luck so far in an archive search. - c

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:33 - ID#342376)
Networking on Gold.........
Everyone open your doors, your windows and scream, "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take this low price of Gold anymore!" Say it with me!!!!!!!! "I'M MAD AS HELL AND I'M NOT GOING TO TAKE THIS LOW PRICE OF GOLD ANYMORE!" Together we can do it!!! "I'M MAD AS HELL AND I'M NOT GOING TO TAKD THIS LOW PRICE OF GOLD ANYMORE!"

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:35 - ID#431263)
AOL @499 PE!!!
Herr KMTMAN--PE'S don't matter in a blow-off anymore than any other meaasure of valuation! Could be 4,999 instead of ONLY 499! All that matters in a blow-off is money flows and momentum! But you're right, a PE of 499 is a DEFINITE WARNING THAT THE END IS NEAR!

Lurker 777
(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:38 - ID#317247)

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:42 - ID#271383)
chas,,thebishop,Midwesterner---Allegheny Mines Corp.
News releases for allegheny Mines can also be found at;

choose News Releases at left side of screen

under news by symbol, type in AYM and click on GO

There are six releases at this site.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:42 - ID#342376)
Or for you more inclined to the New Age.....
Everyone hold hands ( wrap your hands around your moniter ) and Chant, "Gold to the Moon!" Together, we can raise the vibration of gold to a higher conciousness! "Gold to the Moon!" Where's Ziva?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:43 - ID#288369)
@God O' Fire and HighRise........
G.O.F.: I've got us covered on the land, cattle and lubricants requirement...don't sweat that part of the deal. New tractor too! Yea!!! Mi terra es su terra ( de fuego )

H.R.: Gates has got my ass...unless you allow MSNBC to fill your hard drive with their're S.O.L. on their site.

The Hatt
(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:46 - ID#294232)
Gold @ $260.40 Now does everyone feel better!
Gold will comeback once the paper game has ended!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:46 - ID#271383)
Preacher re: AYM

There may be mills close by


(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:46 - ID#431263)
Now it's drought! Brazil on fire due to El Nino-inspired drought! What next? Extremes all over the place! Not good for the status quo and those who are countin' on it!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:47 - ID#342376)
Sorry guys, just another goldbug slowly going insane
I think I caught what Farfel had a few weeks ago.....

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:47 - ID#233199)
Canadian Content

It struck me the other day what seems so familiar about the Kitco site. I've been away form Toronto and Maple Leaf Gardens for a few years, but my lmemory finally kicked in.

This site is just like the street scene in front of the Gardens before a leafs game. Not a hope of going all the way, but there was always a constant rumble of Go Leafs! in the air.

Well, it might as wll be Go Gold! That "Game" ran the same way too. As long as the seats were full, the "powers that be" were content.

So who cares about the price go Gold? Just look a that daily volume - and somebody always gets a cut! An ll the while in the backround there's a family fued going on over the real ownership.

Go Gold!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:48 - ID#432148)
High Rise
Try this one:

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:48 - ID#411149)
SWP1- I can tell you with some confidence that DROOY should
be around $5.00 @ 330 and $10.00 @ 375 or so. SSC is anybody's
guess, I bought it to be diversified and have been very disapointed!

Tally Ho

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:50 - ID#269245)
Lurker - THANK YOU!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:52 - ID#233199)

Did you conscdeer the SSC ( SILVW or SILVZ ) warrants?
They look intesting to me but I don't really have a clue.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:53 - ID#401237)

That must have been it, I refused all of his cookies. I thought it was him trying to slow down Netscape - may have been both.

I would watch out for his stuff - and his cookies. There are people in the know, who fear what his stuff may be doing and the information that it may be sending back to MSFT.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:54 - ID#233199)
Never take cookies from Billionaires?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:55 - ID#222231)
WB will buying silver again. ( if he is'nt already ) . Trust me!


(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:58 - ID#401237)
Thanks for the URL, but I think that is todays NY April future closing price.

I will ck that other one again in a minute to see if it alive or a week old.

Thanks again,


(Tue Mar 17 1998 22:59 - ID#288369)
@HighRise...I'm a very picky eater.....
Only snarf cookies from Mom....and brownies from Teddo!!! Yahooooo! Theodore Edward I, Minister of the Botanical at the Kitco Kingdom.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 23:00 - ID#411149)
SWP1- thanks I will have to check that out. I got a bunch of
DROOY options but they ain't done much yet.

Now to bed! Got to be in top shape tomorrow to watch them
Cumberain Indians beat the WIN out of Life U. in Tulsa.

Tally Ho

(Tue Mar 17 1998 23:02 - ID#318118)
Try this for 24 hour quotes:

(Tue Mar 17 1998 23:05 - ID#373403)
Gold $260?
I'm in!

(Tue Mar 17 1998 23:06 - ID#225273)
ANOTHER's Large Gold Purchase
To all:

Has anyone considered that this Belgian gold sale IS the large purchase ANOTHER was speaking of? In his scenario, the CBs provide the gold to the buyers in the oil states in return for cheap oil. So with oil getting cheaper by the day, is it surprising that a buyer would be redeeming the promise and picking up cheap gold for the cheaper and cheaper oil?
Now, we'll have to see if this large purchase sends the correct signal that gold needs to be brought back to the $320-$360 range, and if those able to do so, do so.

The Preacher

(Tue Mar 17 1998 23:06 - ID#287358)
Yet another...

I predict that someone will buy something
( I didn't say "gold," ) and that the price of gold, measured in
U.S. dollars will go up a coupla notches within ten days. You
can count on it. Trust me. I will return to plant another
post in your imagination. And maybe I will post after I am
right, or maybe I will post before I am right. I am not gonna
say until I feel like it, as I have to think up some more
ambiguous terminology. I can find this site. I can write
clearly. But I want to keep you workin, workin, workin on it.
Truthfully, I appreciate Another, regardless of the amount of
substance backing his "prediction," because he really does
encourage us to pay close attention while looking for answers.
And you are welcome to read anything into that sentence that
your heart and brain desires.

(Tue Mar 17 1998 23:06 - ID#233199)

What is the sybmbol or CUSIP for those Drooy warrants and wht are the details

(Tue Mar 17 1998 23:11 - ID#431263)
Even Pat Robertson says investing in the present stock market is gambling
on a mania! How many Christians will take his warning to heart and sell out before the inevitable 'correction'?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 23:11 - ID#335190)
Public Opinion Polls @ Confused ?
March 17, 1998

Documentary takes light-hearted look at problems in public opinion polls

TORONTO ( CP )  In a recent, ahem, survey, Americans said they were prepared to take up arms to stop Canadians from poaching that national treasure, U.S. silverfish.

Many also condemned that flamboyant TV personality Knowlton Nash, saying she dresses too provocatively and uses foul language unfit for family viewing  although, said one man, she is the most beautiful woman on television.


(Tue Mar 17 1998 23:14 - ID#255217)
Who's to save us now?
Could it be that Bill Gates is the anti-christ and Microsoft is the Beast? Who can make war against him ( or them ) ?

I thought ( hoped ) that silver wouldn't fall below $6.00. Now that it has ( decisively ) , is $5.40 the next stop? Is there nothing between? I wonder if Bill Gates owns any silver. Perhaps I should pray to him? What if Bill Gates were ANOTHER? Could he be both at the same time?

(Tue Mar 17 1998 23:17 - ID#401237)

$292.10 +$0.40


(Tue Mar 17 1998 23:19 - ID#225273)
Sojourn & Elliott Wave
If you're still up; as I understand the EW, the triangle is a consolidation pattern roughly half-way up the wave. The C-wave is the third part of a three-part retracement.
So, what you're saying is that the psychological exhaustion being caused by the current correction will be resolved by an upward thrust in the gold price that carries to about the $325 level.
I could live with that.

The Preacher

(Tue Mar 17 1998 23:20 - ID#401237)
Bill Gates

Soon you will have to have his mark ( software ) to conduct commerce on the Internet - maybe every where. Biblical I think?


(Tue Mar 17 1998 23:25 - ID#401237)


Somebody got a lot of Gold today for a very good price.

OK Another let's let her rip!


(Tue Mar 17 1998 23:29 - ID#401237)
Tick, Tock, Tick.......BOOM!!!!!

S&P 500 JUN98 1092.80 -140

Check it Out !


(Tue Mar 17 1998 23:32 - ID#335190)
FWIW @ 22:03 post..........Others asked today about Japan & Bond sales
Bank of Japan has asked the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to assist Japanese banks in raising dollar funds. Translation: Sell those bonds.

Remember last spring when Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto wondered out loud during a speech at Columbia University

U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve must now print billions of dollars in extra currency to ship to Japan in exchange for their bonds.

Japanese have to bail out their financial institutions, the only money available to do so is invested with the U.S. government. And if those U.S. government bonds are sold