Truly true. Really real. Ya catch that Dow/Gold ratio today? 30. Not 29-point-squishy squeeze. THIRTY!
Look for a SERIOUS spanking in silver tomorrow. The longs see the gap at 5.50 and they will wait for the fill to reload, leaving the funds free to sell our blessed silver into a black hole. I still have lots-o-silver in the mid $6 range, as do many, we will see those levels and higher before this whole thing is played out, but not before a bit more down. I too expect WB to buy more silver in the mid $5 range; he may end up with the 200 million oz he originally intended to buy.
Is it just me, or does anybody else crack up when they see WB printed here? I keep thinking of a frog in a top hat singing, "Dubba - Dubba - Dubba - Yoo - BEEEeeee."
For the first time in since December, I am short gold. I think the lows will hold and I fear naught lower than 280 but risk must be tempered. The shorts are more of a hedge than a profit play.
I am buying platinum with both hands, several toes, one elbow, a knee, and other appendages not suitable for discussion in mixed company. The wild swings in palladium still make it too rich for my blood. The volatility is just too high. I will be content to ride the platinum caboose pulled by the mighty palladium engine.
Somebody asked why I am down on palladium. Not I, mate The auto manufacturers are tired of these Russian games and will retool back to platinum to gain predictability in future supplies. Palladium is great stuff: Its shiny, it cost a lot, and it changes ozone into oxygen. Platinum does all that, but somehow it seems more. noble, I guess. Anyway. Made my clients most of their profits in 1997 on a long silver/platinum - short gold scenario.
Seems like old times.
OK
LGB
My girlfriend say's I do an excellent Ronald Reagan, But the "there you go again", somehow always comes out more Clint Eastwood than RR. Maybe I could change it to "There you go again..Punk". My John Wayne sounds like George Bush with a cold. I can do a passable Bill Clinton, with just the right amount of insincere sincerity, but who would want to? My Felix the Cat is legendary ( and not all that much different the Marge Simpson ) , and my Kermit the frog will make you long for you tender years when the letters Q and S and the number 4 were all you had to worry about. I can also do an excellent impression of a goldbug: "Don't confuse me with the facts, I've made up my mind".
GO GOLD
Gold:
321,832 Registered
245,742 Elligible
567,574 Total net change +89,484 !!
Silver:
36,260,817 Registered
54,186,516 Elligible
90,447,333 Total net change - 56,392
..........to come in and clean out the COMEX gold stockpiles. Looks like an open, VISIBLE purchase is the only thing that may have a positive effect on the gold market.
All these CB private sales ( to BIS, or whomever ) are only going to continue to push the price DOWN, DOWN, DOWN. ( and oil is sinking even faster than gold - bad news for the gold-for-oil deals )
Comments on the EURO: I think John Disney stated correctly that the europeans may not need as much gold after EURO than before all of the gold sales, because much of the inter-country currency risk will eventually be reduced.
I think the key question is not how much gold the EURO needs to stabiliize currency fluctuations, but whether the EURO gold reserves are sufficient to compete with the US dollar.
John Disney: Do you know how many US dollars or other US treasuries the europeans have? This I think will be highly significant, since the europeans will probably have reduced US dollar reserve requirements after the EURO is launched. If I was a European banker, I would eventually be selling US dollars, and buying whatever is needed for the EURO reserves, before 'go live' Jan 1, 1999.
I'll send you an e-mail in a little bit.
Thanks
I might add that Prechter's analysis of the overall stock market + $2.00 will get you a cup of coffee almost anywhere...He has the most dreadful of track records...I'm a subscriber to EWT, but his call on silver may push me off his list.....we shall see.
I am disappointed to hear that Rebecca Nolan was wrong about some of her predictions, and failed to admit them. Astroinvesting is pretty good with turning points, but the investor must guess the direction of the new trend and which market. And -- I suspect also the magnitude of the change.
I think Allen may be on to something with ANOTHER's predictions, and the actual price of gold. What if the Belgian's sold their gold at $300 plus per ounce to other central banks, but released news implying otherwise to depress the gold market. If this is true, I don't think this charade can go on much longer. By the way, if the Belgians sold their gold to other european CB's, who sold all that gold to China, and why is China also paying a premium over the official 'spot' price?
All: What if the 'black market' gold price on the LBMA has already gone up? That would be good news indeed!
Prechter's newsletter typically deals only with Elliott Wave pattern analysis, although he does infrequently inject some other info such as comittments of traders, etc. In the latest issue ( in which he calls the silver bull over ) , he has added no such comments.
I might add that reading and following of Prechter's book ( which I thought was very well done and convincing ) and his newsletter has cost his readers many lost opportunities to make money in the last few years, yours truly including.
On the subject of Nolan's work on gold trend forecasting - I'm interested ( still ) because the trend and price patterns do have some similarities, even though I think it is useless for predicting pricing patterns in gold. The fact that there is some non-random degree of correlation between the peaks and valleys between the forecast and price patterns, indicates to me that there is something there, ( but WHAT?? )
This is not logical, as Spock might say. One is forced to conclude that much of human behavior is modulated by natural events, and not entirely 'free will'. And -- some individuals are more affected than others. Our serial world-wide financial crises, linked with the ElNino are good examples of events beyond our control. Or the idea that 'fiat' currencies can exist without backing by gold. The final outcome is predictable, and apparently not preventable. I do believe that we would exercise more 'free will' if we wanted to - but it is hard for many humans to swim against the tide.
One concept does make sense. If so much of nature is 'quantized' at some basic level following the sequence of the fibonacci series, then it follows that human behavior must be affected by that phenomena, whatever it is. I suspect that we will find out that the concepts of gravity, and electromagnetic phenomena are much richer than our current understanding.
For example, perhaps the electrostatic potential of the earth -- driven by the solar wind -- affects our behavior -- and perhaps the planets modulate this process as they pass through the solar wind. The motions of the planets may be synchronized by this phenomenon as well -- so all events in the solar system are linked together.
I apologize for this off-topic discussion -- but I think these concepts are fundamental to the markets, and to understanding the mysteries of WDGann's investment technique. If we could only understand this better.
I agree - it is most interesting that these forecasts and price movements are apparently non-random, and thus ( perhaps ) predictable if one knows the correct variables.
It is more strange that Nolan ( apparently, from other's input ) does have a better track record on other markets. Can it be that her trend forecast correlations are turned against the gold market by the manipulators? As was stated yesterday, systems forced far away from dynamic equilibrium sooner or later react to correct........lets go gold!
BTW - silver performing nicely today......maybe running the fund stops didn't work?
No URL for her, sorry. - I spent quite some time searching for this several months ago before a friend faxed me a copy of her gold chart ( the one I've been examining ) . However I did receive another solicitation in the snail mail the other day - which has her U.S. mailing address and fax number:
Rebecca Nolan, Editor
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY
12254 Nicollet Avenue South
Burnsville, Minnesota 55337
Fax: 1-612-895-5526
Although the cash costs of many of the South African Mines are ( and have been ) historically high, reorganization within the local gold mining industry and within individual companies is doing an excellent job of reducing these costs.
In the latest quarterly report of DROOY ( ending Dec 31 ) , for example, they show an 8% reduction in cash cost for gold production in one quarter, and have cut cash losses by 96% ( this in a down gold market ) . Many more changes are in the works to conserve cash pending higher gold prices in the future.
Yes, it seems the market is finally realizing that these CB sales go mostly from bank to bank and never hit the mainstream. When the market finally doesn't react at all to such an announcement, the tide will have turned.
I have extracted a reasonable facsimile of the Fibonacci series from time series analysis of the DOW ( 1992-1994 ) . What has her track record been with the DOW?
My own research leads me to believe that SA mines just do not have the ability to generate the kind of cash flow that NA Co.s' mines do ( if this is a cash flow argument ) .
Lest we forget SA Mines Minister's comments a couple of months ago stating that 14 mines would be closed if gold prices did not improve rapidly. This tells me that these 14 mines are mostly cash flow negative right now.
Either way, a sales pitch must me made for people to move away from the US dollar to the EURO. Would be interesting if a gold 'premium' would be part of the sales pitch. I think a EURO solidly backed by gold -- so many units per ounce of gold -- may be too much to expect, unfortunately.
My comment about 'black market' pricing of gold through the LBMA -- above the spot price of gold wasn't that crazy after all, it seems. Didn't someone post today that a 'bid' system was used to sell the gold at a price different from the spot price?
Looks like this is the end of the gold bear to me. Congrats for putting this together, and we must complement ANOTHER as well for alerting us. I think this day will go down in the Kitco historical annals ( whatever that means ) , IMHO.
Really good post. Let me see if I've got it. By Aragon's scenario we seem to ask, What if people refused to acknowledge the "confidence" portion of the Euro and instead transacted only per the gold-backed portion?
Because they're thinking of backing their currency with some percentage of gold, and because that's sure to get people thinking about why currency should be backed by gold in the first place, then it strikes me that any backing less than 100% is just not gonna cut it the way they envision. But how could 100% backing come about with anything less than a revaluation of gold?
Eh?
Insight much appreciated.
dean
Beware the silver tide
As it flows
So it shall ebb
After scanning the articles the other night, I got to thinking if it
could be. Could "Another" be a middle eastern prince? The part that got me thinking was his handle. About a year ago we had a small discussion here about the handle each of us choose to use. Back then we weren't required to have one but most of us did. A good portion of the handles choosen were very personnal. Figuring them out was like a puzzle. I've alway's wondered about the "Another" handle. After reading that poem, it became alot clearer.
800lb gorillas usually don't invest with me - I sure do like the feeling.
Golden our hopes
Dashed on a silver shore
Today the tale
And then to snore
OK
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Good Night Bart
I hope you can get data soon.
HighRise