Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

John Disney__A
(Thu Mar 19 1998 00:07 - ID#24135)
Great site .. lousy formula
For JohnB and Highrise..

The site for overnight gold in Yen is fantastic.
Sometimes I feel someone doesnt want us to know
the gold price .. how's that for paranoia ?.
Your formula is less good .. I have 31.1 gm per troy
oz not 32 gm .
thus ..1215 yen/gm becomes 1215*31.1/130.1 = 290.4
for march gold.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 00:09 - ID#369174)
Thanks for the earlier warning. I am truly a tyro with metals investing. My quote for the BU Sovereigns were from a guy named "Eric" that I think you know. He promised quick delivery, too.

I was busy today shoveling snow, so I didn't get a chance to get back to you here ( or Eric ) , but would like to discuss with you tomorrow. When can I call your 888 ### to reach you?

Silverbaron, thanks for the heads up about sov's being a little too popular now. I'll try to get something a little more out of favor. Hmmmmmm -- gold is becoming popular??? I think I was out in the snow too long!!!

John Disney__A
(Thu Mar 19 1998 00:28 - ID#24135)
Elimentary, my dear Watson
to All
The evans pritchard site is excellent. BC
is making a mistake in attacking this one I
The autopsy report really does look a
white out job.
Although there is a fairly simple explanation.
Foster shot himself ONCE in the head with a
small caliber pistol. He wasn't happy with the
result. So he got a BIGGER pistol and shot
himself again. He liked the result better and
so he died.
Doesn't that hang together okay for you ??

(Thu Mar 19 1998 00:28 - ID#369174)
KITCO has crashed . . .
and I think I will too. G'night all. After all, tomorrow is another day.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 00:30 - ID#267298)
Domestic vs Foreign Investment
Does anyone have any idea whatsoever as to the
ratio of Domestic vs Foreign investment in the Dow ????


(Thu Mar 19 1998 00:30 - ID#253228)
Gold bear to roar very loudly. No later than end of next week
Based on my trend and cyclical work on Homestake mines, I look for up to an 80%++ loss in value from the current levels, move to be completed the third week in May. Historically, Homestake has swung 90% from its trend for its extremes. An unusual convergence of cycles will take it down deep. I may sound like a broken record, having posted this information before, yet I feel that with the overwhelming bullish sentiment of postings on this site I need to repeat.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 00:35 - ID#255151)
Big Conspiracies

All right, might as well add my 2 florins worth to the speculation. Who is the buyer of CB Gold? How about well connected individuals in Government/Banking/Finance in the various selling countries? Somebody has to make a decision to sell the Gold. The reasons they give just don't seem to make sense. Maybe those who control the CB Gold are "privatizing" this asset at what they perceive to be fire sale prices?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 00:35 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

(Thu Mar 19 1998 00:39 - ID#28939)
@Jeil, Just don't see the downside potential on Homestake

The pattern is very similar to the price of gold, maybe a dollar downside to re-test the February lows. Mometum measures do not in any way suggest that kind of loss in value.


(Thu Mar 19 1998 00:39 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Hi, my brother John,

Just want to share simple thoughts and learn
what you think. Belgium sold 299 tons at the price
above spot ( as people figured out ) . Now, here comes
ANOTHER, like usual, as a great predictor...

But here comes your brother Oris with his take:

Belguim wanted to sell, somebody else wanted
to buy. If somebody would buy in a casual way, on the
open market, 299 tons ( ! ) , it would probably trigger
large price move up - buyer looses.. On the other hand,
if Belgium would sell 299 tons ( ! ) in a casual way,
on the open market, it would probably trigger large price move
down - Belgium looses... And here comes rule of engagement -
- buyer and seller just decided to cooperate in the interests
of the business - both sides figured out the price which
would be "medium" price...and deal went through. Of course,
I believe Fed was an advisor or even on the middleman -
- Fed got to take care of market and U.S.dollar - Fed
does not need even a local earthquake in the form of
sharply rising gold price, and other CB's do not need
their assets devalued in the form of sharply lower
gold price. One word only - BALANCE. That's it.

What do you think, my respected brother?

Your still green, but very fast learning brother Oris...

(Thu Mar 19 1998 00:39 - ID#401237)

We will go negative on Gold if that changes your forcast on HM.

I really don't need HM to go down another 80%,
that would put it at about $2. TVW then would be at $0.25 - Yah I can be down on Gold.


(Thu Mar 19 1998 00:45 - ID#238422)
John Disney

...Fed was one of the middlemen...
..Fed was on the middleman..

Still learning second language!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 00:46 - ID#401237)

A CB sells 8 zillion tons of Gold and know one knows that they did it for months.
And no one knows who bought it.
And no one knows on what exchange or what back room.
And no one knows what was given for the Gold.
And no one knows who controls the US Gold.


(Thu Mar 19 1998 00:46 - ID#28939)
good night all, happy trading!!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 00:59 - ID#78136)
To Dbog
Strategic Investment, Davidson & Rees-Mogg had something
in their publication recently, but I can't put my hands
on it. European investment in N.A. Equities was at
least twice perhaps three times domestic investment.
Their point was, what happens when these folks
repatriate their funds?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 00:59 - ID#401237)
John Disney__A

Thanks for the correction in the Yen / $ for Gold formula.


(Thu Mar 19 1998 00:59 - ID#373403)
I agree! How is it that these large transactions take place without the markets knowledge and to no effect until the post-sale announcement? Why was the sale at above spot prices? This volume should be at a discount to spot if the price of gold was really "fixed" properly.

John Disney__A
(Thu Mar 19 1998 01:01 - ID#24135)
I think you've got it.
For brother Oris.
I dont know about the Fed part. I fancy the
Europeans feel that they can move gold around
without the fed's advice .. maybe.. maybe not.
But I agree your mechanism completely.. they
dont want to upset the market by making annoucement
before they do the deal. After the deal is
done, the market shouldn't really be affected
much as gold simply changed hands.
What seems to have changed a bit is that
the media play and the public/market reaction
seemed a little bit tamer than usual. I dont
know if this is good or bad or not relevant.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 01:04 - ID#253228)
HighRise, Sojourn
I realize that my projection sounds extreme. I have no real interest in convincing others that I am correct. I more am just doing a "Look Ma, not hands," routine so I can later come back and say see, see, or if it turns out that my work is faulty I can just disappear along with the capital I have placed and will place additionally Monday where my mouth is. I can only say that my work was close on the leg down from last fall till January, 1998. I stumbled a little then and did some rework. Since then my projection has been very close to the market action.
If you have a chart of Homestake mines going back to the 1950's you can almost visually draw a trend line through the data that will approximate one that a polynomial equasion will precisely compute. Look at the extremes of the actual data from the line and you can roughly see that on the upside the extreme tops are a little above 100% from the trend line. The bottoms obviously can't go below 100% of the trend because the price can't go below zero, but the extreme bottoms can go to 90% below the trend line. Right now my calculated trend line is sitting at 14.44.
I have no way of showing you the statistical tests I have run on hundreds of cycles to prove to my satisfaction that they are not just random swings. You will just need to wait and see if we hit my projection, but it is clearly within the realm of the history of Homestake's price movement.
If I am right for my own life it will be the equivalent of having touched the sun.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 01:06 - ID#267298)
Thanks for the info

(Thu Mar 19 1998 01:07 - ID#22956)
....the sleepy Mark....
will Awaken...uh huh.

soon. ( said EB whilst buying with his extremities{:-$ ) )

hey ted...g'day crusty...savage, did you like that buy two sell one? ( pl/gc ) ... ( ohmy ) ( ! ) ... ( $$ ) ....go plat. and silver to boot, this game is hotting up. Damn! I feel good. StudioR, I'm half inclined to sell this ( so called ) oil rally. She wants to go lower..uh huh. And so does gold. Nick@C, man you still kill me. yuk-yuk. Xavier??!? Monex-Boy, let us ride this to the moon, EH?



(Thu Mar 19 1998 01:08 - ID#238422)
John Disney
I think, in general it is not relevant, in a sense
it does not mean that gold bear is dead as many
excited guys at Kitco think... But! - It means
there was a buyer ( s ) of relatively large quantity,
and it general it means, I think, that gold is
still playing its 6000 year old role... It is
probably not very bullish, but it is at least
not bad and even slightly good ...FOR THE FUTURE...
I recall my Fed stuff, you are right - it was
pure European business.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 01:09 - ID#287280)
Notes on the margin--

( 1 ) I stumbled into Socit Gnrale de Surveillance ( SGS ) because I was following the money--in this particular instance, Baron August von Finck. It may be of interest to some of you that the good Baron is listed as a member of the committee of 300

( 2 ) I found SGSs choice of new head of Natural Resources of interest.
Naresh Bedi, who directed the Whistling Hunters, "Lotan Baba - The Rolling Saint,"; is a staunch conservationist and author of several books. For your average GoldBug, he seems a....strange.....choice....

( 3 ) Baron von Finck seems to lead to Triton Energy too...but nothing solid yet. Probably purchased HM to balance Triton...{:- )

( 4 ) The ISO situation is a wonderment. SGS notes that Credit Suisse was the first financial institution to receive their 14001 certification. Environmental Management System certification....what in the world does THAT really mean?
For a bank?!

( 5 ) One of the first posts I ever made on this board asked, "Who is BUYING?" Because I could not--CAN NOT--understand why the total lack of
interest in who made a 2bn purchase. Sell a painting for $35mn and watch
the press salivate. So the answer must be, IT IS NOT "SOLD"...
Did you know that ECM has a slick little arrangement wherein the country
"pays in" and then "gets back"? It is a pretty hefty per centage as I remember...

No number six...the world is mad enough as it is, thank you very much!

A.Goose@Wondering.about.currency Goose, sometimes I am very, very stupid. It struck me after our conversation exactly what they are
doing to maintain the Potemkin $!

Goodnight all. One of these days, the good guys will win! {:- ) ) )

John Disney__A
(Thu Mar 19 1998 01:13 - ID#24135)
McCurry seems like a resonable guy.
For Robnoel and JTF.
I think McCurry is nuts to attack Evans-Pritchard.
It will only direct attention to him and to the
telegragh web site.
The photographic stuff is really worrisome. A guy
who just blew part of his head off with no blood on
his white sleeve. An obviously doctored autopsy report.
Looks really bad.
Maybe McCurry really BELIEVES BC. In that case he
must be a first class idiot.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 01:16 - ID#78136)
indicators seem meaningless
How could anyone not be a contrarian when that state seems so
obvious. BC is probably the most corrupt President in the
history of the U.S. The fact that U.S. society is ambivalent
about it mirrors their moral standards. We as Canadians have not
sunk to such depths and we view the U.S. as a country in decay.
N.Koreans, hungry, threat of war. Asian currency in a mess.
Japanese businessmen committing suicide, three at a time. EUD
scrambling to decide if a portion of their currency backed by
gold. P/E ratios that I never would have entertained 30 years
ago. A Y2K problem that is being dismissed as a little inconvience.
It goes on an on and gold does the opposite of what you expect. Go figure.
The CB's or whoever are only going to keep a lid on this for so
long. Look at the spread between gold and the white PM's.
When this breaks, I think it breaks bigtime because by the time
Mary Mutual Fund investor jumps on, it will give gold that
wonderful push that got the Dow where it is today. We could
see gold at $2,000/oz before 2000.
Does anyone else see it this way or did I shovel too much snow
in the hinterland this week?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 01:21 - ID#401237)
John Disney__A - on McCurry

An Idiot,
He Is. I have seen him on camera several times when he appeared to be under the influence of something, making a fool of himself.


(Thu Mar 19 1998 01:26 - ID#253228)
Bulldog, maybe $500 before the year 2000 but lower first. Probably after 2007 before your price.
You are thinking logically. An American populus educated in government owned and operated schools has been dulled to thinking.
The human mind is highly over rated. Sure people can tell a tree from a rock, but start to discuss abstract concepts and the old computer in the skull can be programmed in any fashion. Clearly the vast majority of Americans think they live in a free country. They think that with their indoctrinated skull computers. Many, many. people alive today who live in the USA don't even recognize the smell of silver money. How can you expect them to think that other than paper is money. They have not experienced it.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 01:27 - ID#238422)
$2,000/oz? I'm afraid you may be wrong.
My guess as good as yours, but I did not
fight with the snow this week...

John Disney__A
(Thu Mar 19 1998 01:30 - ID#24135)
Follow the Money
For SDRer
I wanna follow the money too. I wanna know whow took the
3 mill oz than ABX sold to them in 1997 and paid them 400$/oz
for it. I think that was maybe 90-100 tons at 400$. How can I
follow that money ?? Any ideas on how to do that??

(Thu Mar 19 1998 01:39 - ID#20136)
Eligible silver stocks dropping again (low 52,706,304 March 6 )
warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

321,832 0 0 0 0 321,832
245,742 0 0 0 0 245,742
567,574 0 0 0 0 567,574


0 730,663 36,991,480
-136,757 -730,663 53,319,096
-136,757 0 90,310,576

(Thu Mar 19 1998 01:43 - ID#255284)
Cars, Oil, SDR_er - Octopus', Donald - 1d Black, Sovereigns, Income Taxes & Passports
Wouldn't you know it? There's no Hyundai model "Elantra" marketed in NZ. These asian cars have a plethora of names and models hawked everywhere. The current Top of the Range Hyundai marketed in NZ is a 3L V6 Sonata, with all the bells & whistles sells for NZ$36,990, that's US$21,550.

I think we can do better with gasoline at the pump. name your grade ( and boy, Do I expect the grades to be meaningless internationally ) and I'll suprise you with the NZ cost.

I am in awe at your research and presentation of your results. Thank you. This SGS is tentacular.

Here's the problem with postage. At the time we are talking, 1903, postage was still a comparative luxury. The price of mail is, compararively much less today. Think of the effort required to deliver a letter in 1903, even with the train/railway network. I'd be happier with a comparison with, say, the number of loaves of bread per sov. or maybe pounds of steak. I thank you for your thoughts too on the number of days' labour required to earn a sovereign. ESPECIALLY for the reminder that in 1903 there were no income taxes. Neither were there passports. Ain't it good to live in the modern "Free World"?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 01:46 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother John,

I just realized that if ABX could sell for
$400/oz, it means there is very good buying
interest over there, same story as paying
above spot price for Belgium gold. This buyer
( or buyers ) do not want to buy on the open market
for known reason of not willing to spark a huge rally.
The bad thing is I do not know who is this "buying
interest", and it is not "oil guys" for sure ( presumably
top secret--ANOTHER-told everybody-can be excluded
from consideration just because top secret is revealed ) .
One thing is clear - there is a buyer, and big one.

Probably, there were never "pure dumpings" of gold by CB's,
there were always deals between buyers and sellers. CB's
would not sell ( dump ) unless they had buyer ( s ) , I think...

Interesting.. and you are right about coverage of all
these sales by press, looks to me like military operation
called "Disinformation Made Easy".

Your team member-Brother Oris.

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Thu Mar 19 1998 01:48 - ID#25867)
THIS glitch & Royal Canadian Mint Mountie Coin
We had a fire in our building today ( March 18 ) which left us with no significant damage, but did manage to shut the main power to the building down. I'm quite sure that tomorrow morning everything will be back to normal in terms of getting our quotes back on line.

To Aragorn III: Interesting post, but don't worry about the bullion dealers. Their profits can be made in gold, currency or any combination as they wish. Their inventories can be hedged or not. So even a dealer who wants all his corporate assets in gold can do so. If they sell their entire inventory for paper on any given day it's because they know they can immediately replace the paper for gold at a lower cost. That's the object of the game, to end the day with either more gold or dollars than you start with.

Speaking about bullion dealers .... You'll notice an advertisement soon for the Royal Canadian Mint Mountie Coin which they guarantee to buy back for USD$310 before Jan 1, 2000. Consider this our next effort in trying to generate enough revenues to maintain and improve this site. The ad is going up exclusively on our discussion group for a two week period during which time all profits from the sale will go towards maintaining this page. That's not to say that it's going to disappear if we don't sell enough. Charging for "full text" mode is still an option, but only as a last resort.

So if you feel you'd like to support our group AND invest in gold with a limited edition $310 guaranteed value 1 oz pure gold bullion coin ( count the adjectives ) here's a great way to do it. In the absence of a bull market the price will be only $325 + shipping.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 01:52 - ID#255284)
And now for some gold, in the ground, for sale, and at kitco

All these forward sales, like the ABX 95 tons at $400+. The only answer my salty little bwain can come up with is that there are at least two markets. An "official" public market price as seen on Comex, and London Fix, and a covert "Black" market where the "real" deals are done.

Let's face it. Comex gold trading is the little brother when compared with the hundreds of tons that are apparantly moving around the globe. THese hundreds of tonnes move in ANOTHER market all together. Does anyone really think that the Belgian CB sold Over The Counter?

The Comex price is a fiction. A fiction on small volumes. It is one heck of a joke on the peopleo, when you come to think of it. And the Peopleo's revenge is to buy and take possession from the playmarket at COmex.

Excellent posts.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 02:01 - ID#255284)
Deus ex Machina
I hope the fire damage was not too intense. Having been concerned recently about Italian fake Soverini, I was wondering how I could get some Mounties. I asked here where I could buy Mounties in Toronto, and got no reply. I shall look forward to the advertisement.

Didja see my post about altering the copyright default to "Noone"? An inadvertant claim to copyright some work that is copyrighted by another is, I'd suggest, prima facie a breach of the true copyright.

If someone want to try claim copyright, I suggest you make them choose to do so.

Thank you for your effort to keep the best darned corner of the WWW free.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 02:14 - ID#255217)
Bulldog, and others of like thoughts
I'm witchu. I don't understand it either. I don't think most Americans have a clue as to what real adversity is and are coasting along on what's left from past accomplishments by Americans who did know ( WWII and the Great Depression ) . I have shown gold coins to a few neighbors and acquaintances and am dismayed by their total lack of interest in REAL money. Most seem inclined to believe the status quo will continue indefinately. Perhaps because it has been so for so long now, they can't imagine any real change ( or they are AFRAID to think about such things ) . I know really nice people who are still buying Microsoft and Coca Cola and don't see anything wrong with that ( I doubt that they know what P/E really means ) . I don't wish these people ill; I just feel sorry for them.

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Thu Mar 19 1998 02:26 - ID#25867)
Aurator - The "no one" option should be used when one is not the author of the material they post. That's what it's there for.

Otherwise, I would think that to claim ownership of something that you don't own is innocuous unless you act on that claim. I can claim ownership of all the gold in fort knox. Nobody would really care until I show up at the front gate politley asking the guards to load it in my pickup truck.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 02:28 - ID#255284)
Argent, you are a real gent.

I know v well what you're seeing, it is the gold-bug's burden. What we have been discovering here, in a kind of gestalt, is that the community of goldbugs share not just belief in real money, but also a golden heart for our nearest and dearest who do not see what we see.

As always, all you can do, is live your life by example. That is the best way to "educate" those you care for. Do the wise thing

educate- ex ducare: to lead out.

cave carpem

(Thu Mar 19 1998 02:37 - ID#252127)

The value of commodities, oil, copper, zinc and nickel flounder. Gold and silver -once real money- have been replaced by instruments of government promise, while numerous global currencies hit the skid. The dollar stands erect like a super hard-on ready to fall limber for lack of a suitable stimulus.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 03:01 - ID#413109)
Still the same!
Finished my tech homework, and nothing has changed, except maybe that
today is the day. Almost everything I've been doing shows the gold stocks and other PMs looking like buys, buys and more buys. What else can I say.
If I'm wrong so be it!

Another matter- Have seen many posts say get out of debts, don't buy on
margin etc. I ask you, especially those that believe in cycles, after the period we've experienced of low inflation and lower inflation, what would
logically follow a period like this? With the US debt out of control
what may we expect next? So if your conclusion is the same as mine why
wouldn't you be buying gold on margin? If one expects the price to rise
wouldn't you be paying off the margin with profits on the purchase?

Those that have been expecting a recession, deflation, I say, as I have
in the past, I'm expecting both. AN INFLATIONARY DEPRESSION. It's
happened before, and since there is nothing new under the sun, why not

(Thu Mar 19 1998 03:03 - ID#252127)

The value of commodities, oil, copper, zinc and nickel
flounder. Gold and silver -once real money- have been
replaced by instruments of government promise, while
numerous global currencies hit the skid. The dollar
stands erect like a massive piss hard-on ready to fall limber
after letting it all out.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 03:04 - ID#31868)
That which might be new under the Sun, hmmmmmmm, could or would you recognize it? Do you have those capabilities?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 03:07 - ID#31868)
Bart - I very much appreciated your time on the phone
today. Namaste'

(Thu Mar 19 1998 03:17 - ID#273227)
Oldman 22:52

Yes, I think the specific trade discussions were from Avid. I don't

surf over there daily, so I'm sure I've missed alot. What I have is


(Thu Mar 19 1998 03:23 - ID#273227)
S. Africa dividends
John D. - do you know the settlement ( ? ) date for dividends for each S. African stock?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 04:09 - ID#22956)
I always get that mixed up...and who coined it?...
crusty=salty in EBspeak.

G'day salty ( i meant in prior post ) .



On your mark...

get set...

hmmmmm ( ... ) ...

(Thu Mar 19 1998 04:29 - ID#22956)
there may be a few weeks left...
have you done all your shopping? visit a Frulein


(Thu Mar 19 1998 04:44 - ID#20748)
London Gold
Just heard on Bloomberg radio London Gold up 1.4 to 292.40.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 05:35 - ID#252391)
Thanks A Goose for the stocks data
Thanks Goose for the stocks update. Where do you get the information?? Seems Silver stocks are 1/2 million ozs from making a new all time low. That's ALL TIME LOW!! - that's why I want to own silver stocks. Conspiracy theories and astrology don't do it for me like good old fashion ALL TIME LOW silver stock piles at the comex. Thanks again for the high.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 06:57 - ID#26793)
@Bart Kitner
Maybe you don't need a whole pick-up truck. You can do the job with a Radio Flyer. Bart; I don't seem to be smart enough to activate the copyright choices. If I click or highlight them there is no change. What am I missing?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 07:10 - ID#419147)
an old question, but still not answered
--Feb 25--Czech central bank announces 25-tonnes gold sold in 1997
--Dec 3--Argentina's Central Bank announces 4 million ounce gold sale
--Jly 4--Reserve Bank of Australia announces 167-tonne gold sale
--March--Belgian central bank announces 203-tonne gold sale
--January, 1997--Dutch central bank announces 300-tonne gold sale
--January, 1993--Dutch central bank announces 400-tonne gold sale
--January, 1993--Belgian central bank announced 400-tonne gold sale
--June, 1992--Belgian central bank announced 202-tonne gold sale
--March, 1989--Belgian central bank announced 127-tonne gold sale

WHO IS THE BUYER?!?!?!!!!!!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 07:13 - ID#183109)
It's the Oval Office cam. Take a look at what's going on in the Oval Office. I guess Clinton is concerned about his public image. Look closely, you might even see Janet Reno looking in.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 07:13 - ID#289357)
jims @ COMEX stockpiles

You can get the free COMEX data ( with about an 8 hr time delay ) at

( free Internet membership for delayed quotes )

click on Internet services

click on News

click on FWN Metals

COMEX stocks for gold and silver are listed separately; part 2 for silver has the totals.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 07:27 - ID#26793)
Seven Japanese brokerage houses warn of heavy losses

(Thu Mar 19 1998 07:29 - ID#287358)
For Reify
My reasoning for not buying on margin is so you don't have to sell your gold stocks every time you get one of these B.S. anoucments. A man on margin is a weak holder because he gets scared sh!t on every move. Just in case you do it anyway, make sure you don't margin a company thats dieing of cancer. One margin call on one of these companies and your forced to sell other stocks immedatiely. Try and enjoy investing, instead of living on the edge with each swing. This market has too many fakes in it to play the buy stop sell stop game. Anti momentum seems to work better right now. Good Luck.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 07:31 - ID#26793)
Japanese vehicle sales at 10 year low

(Thu Mar 19 1998 07:34 - ID#289357)
Islamic Gold Standard & Gold-for-Oil ........ YES!
From the Research Studies section of

( a great site for news and research, if you haven't tried it - use the full menu option to find Research Studies )

Toward an Islamic Gold Standard

Final Call - February monthly edition

By forming an International Islamic Central Bank and issuing its own gold-backed currency notes, the Islamic world could establish the most stable money system on earth. But, would it be credible? Yes. The enormous mass of the Muslim nations - 10,450,000 square miles, a one billion member population, the combined Gross National Product of all of the Muslim nations and blessing of having much of the worlds oil supply running beneath its feet - would give the Islamic gold-backed currency all the credibility it would need.

Most people outside of political and economic circles do not realize that since 1945 it has only been possible to purchase oil with U.S. dollars. This creates a guaranteed demand for dollars that no other currency in the world can claim. The fact that oil is denominated in dollars ( meaning you have to use dollars to purchase oil ) means that people will always need dollars if they want oil. This is one factor that makes the dollar so unique.

The oil-producing nations ask for dollars because the dollar is the strongest currency in the world, but nothing is stopping the oil-producing nations from asking for another currency in exchange for oil. If the oil-producing nations with significant Muslim populations were to ask for their oil payments in the form of an Islamic currency, all the strength and purchasing power that the dollar gains from being the oil-producers currency of choice would now switch to an Islamic gold-backed currency.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 07:36 - ID#26793)
U.S. Cattlemen apply for corporate welfare. Quick! Call Oprah Winfrey!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 07:40 - ID#287312)
Polar Bear
Thanks for the great article on RANGY at golden eagle.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 07:43 - ID#258427)
Has anyone got an "up-to-date" price on Gold and Silver
DBC is giving off conflicting info ... and Kitco's got problems...

Sources anyone??

(Thu Mar 19 1998 07:53 - ID#26793)
Sorry I am late in responding to your comment of last night. There is every reason to think that the Dow/Gold Ratio will drop down to the 1 or 2 area. The big part of that will be from the Dow. Bear markets in history have been 90% of the top. Starting today that would give us a Dow below 1000 and it implies a gold price of $500 to $1000.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 07:56 - ID#289357)

(Thu Mar 19 1998 07:57 - ID#289357)
BillD showing

GC98J at 291.6
SI98H at 5.891

(Thu Mar 19 1998 08:05 - ID#234218)
@Donald A re: 07:53 post
I REALLY like your numbers! Any chance of that happening today or tomorrow?? I sure would like to retire Monday!! Then I wouldn't be up at this hour.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 08:08 - ID#286199)
Silver Blip
Silver popped down to 5.78 on Bloomberg and DBC and then just popped back up on DBC. Gold is steady plus or minus a nickel. The WSJ-Interactive appears to be down as well. Might as well go to work!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 08:10 - ID#258427)
SilverBaron...thanx, but DBC showing a much drab'er

May Silver

(Thu Mar 19 1998 08:10 - ID#252391)
Thaks Silverbaron
Thanks for the link to the Comex stocks. With my old antique of a computer it took me about an hour to get through all the pages to the important information. Someday I have alot of time I'll explore the other pages of my new membership

Seems all the overnight quote servers are messed up. CBS had silver down to 5.75 last I looked which was, well about an hour ago.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 08:16 - ID#25588)
This a low risk trade if you can get filled. SnP is at the top of a 5 wave wedge. Sell the June at 1099 use a 5 point stop. Silver and gold no change from yesterday.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 08:21 - ID#258427)
I believe that the DBC Silver number is correct
Silver down .13 .. 5.80 or 5.79 or so...DBC seems to be updating

not good news!!!

Bully Beef
(Thu Mar 19 1998 08:24 - ID#259282)
I do tests because I have an old 486 66MHZ that is half torn down.
Sometimes I don't think when I hit reload it is getting other messages so I test to see if I'm getting through. Just because I can use this thing does't mean I can do it well. Anybody got duct tape.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 08:24 - ID#252391)
Got to go w/ Silverbaron
BarChart is showing silver having been down to 5.74 current ( or a while ago ) at 5.79.

This is a healthy drop especially in view of the fact that gold is off only 20 cents and the CPI hasn't even been released yet. This could really be a blow out day. I still think $5.45-5.50 will have to be hit before this thing turns around. Can not get two up days in a row - pretty much the opposite to the stock market where you can't hardly get a real down day. Starting to feel I came to this party to early, before they had finished cleaning up from the last.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 08:25 - ID#289357)

Methinks RJ was telling us this last nite about silver......Hmmmmmmm.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 08:28 - ID#258427)
Silverbaron...Perhaps so, but

(Thu Mar 19 1998 08:28 - ID#413109)
BILLD-- Try this one-

(Thu Mar 19 1998 08:33 - ID#411149)


Tally Ho

(Thu Mar 19 1998 08:34 - ID#26793)
No chance of my putting a date on it but I do think it is "soon" if you think of "soon" in the context of an 18 year gold bear market that could be a year or two to the Dow bottom. As they say, you should not give up your day job.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 08:42 - ID#410194)
Gold & Silver comments
After Gold's huge breakout down following the 9 days consolidation type of trading, it managed to closed firm yesterday and some technical traders might called the action a failed auction!

When the trade has the market on the run and fails to hold it down it shows a lack of controlling sentiment. Open interest is on a steady increase and that is certainly needed to sustain a rally.

It's starting to look like that prices below 290 are no longer valid and it may be a solid floor underneath!

With only 64 deliveries yestersay, Silver is fighting an uphill battle. Here too tough, some long interests are ready to buy the dips as demonstrated yesterday.

Comex warehouses need to remain stagnant or to continue dwindling down for another imminent rally.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 08:52 - ID#253418)
Any pop in gold or silver
Any reaction to the CPI numbers that anybody can see.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 08:53 - ID#258427)
DBC bouncing Silver around again...up to 5.92
and back to 5.78...what's a guy to believe?? BART...we need your updates ~~~I'm hooked on them and withdrawal symptoms are appearing.....

(Thu Mar 19 1998 08:53 - ID#246224)
What is the total core rate now. Up 0.3% from what to what?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 08:54 - ID#398105)
Gebernax (an old question, but still not answered)

Who sets the GOLD price daily in London !

(Thu Mar 19 1998 08:57 - ID#258427) reaction on Globex...dollar strong..SnP
down .30...What's a little inflation anyway??

(Thu Mar 19 1998 09:08 - ID#258427)
Silver really getting "worked"...taking a beating
down .18 to 5.74 on DBC..Go Bart!!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 09:09 - ID#26793)
It is set by a group of 15 or 20 dealers sitting around a table who talk it over and agree on a price. Takes about 10 or 15 minutes. I had a post a few months ago. Can't look for it now but will repost this afternoon.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 09:09 - ID#411149)
core rate
Allen- I don't know and they won't say, you understand they
are not reporters but stock sellers. Seems like these numbers
have been in the negative region for sometime. We must also remember
they usually refer to the CORE rate that does not include the
VOLITAL food and energy sector. WEEEELLLLL you know what has happened to this sector, energy down, food up.

Tally Ho

Gusto Oro
(Thu Mar 19 1998 09:11 - ID#377235)
Just bought a pile of silver stock yesterday on a lowball bid that actually went through. Figured yesterday was the bottom. Oh well.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 09:33 - ID#411259)
..... Yep .....

Silverbaron -

I was.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 09:42 - ID#289357)

I'm not a trader, ( so it really doesn't matter to me what happens short term )

but I appreciate the insights that you, D.A. and others have who are inside the market.

Just curious - how didyaknow it was going down today?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 09:49 - ID#25171)
Dollar bear
A figure ignored by financial markets last week gave us some insight regarding the medium term trend for the dollar.
The current account deficit for Q4 was established at $ 45.6 bn. This means that for the whole year the deficit was a staggering 165 bn , the highest in 10 years.Projection for next year show a current account deficit in the 210 bn area.
In the last 2 years a lot of these dollars were recycled in the US economy as hot money found attractive bond yields and exceptional Dow performance.
However this is not true anymore as Tbonds offer 6% return and stocks are grossly overvalued.
It is very unlikely that the US will be able to run such a huge deficit without currency depreciation.I even anticipate that on top of that, there will be net outflows from US financial assets are investors believe that they don t need the safe haven status os the US anymore as Asia is recovering ( ! )
Even US investors start to chase higher returns abroad and in the 3+4Q US investors ploughed 200 bn into overseas markets.
Most of the funding of the US deficit is now through short term deposits.US bank liabilities to foreigners rose by $90 bn in Q4 ( versus 10 bn in Q3 ) The Asian effectagain.
The US can not rely on hot money to fund its long term deficit and enjoy the non inflationary benefits of a strong dollar.
The fed will have to hike rates sooner rather than later and this morning core price index points in that direction even though markets are blind.
This will lead to a strong correction in stock prices but if it is not a freefall it will please AG. The problem is that it will be a freefall !.GO GOLD.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 09:49 - ID#57232)
Good Morning!
Donald: Do you think your news about Japan is a sign of more trouble ahead, or house cleaning by Hashimoto? I have a real hard time deciding what to believe. I know bad news comes out at bottoms -- but I just can't believe Japan's market rally is a sign of a bottom yet.

aurator: Thanks for your input on the gold price situation. It sure does look like there is the 'public' price of gold on Comex for us ordinary people, and a 'black market' price of gold on the LBMA.

Someone once told us that the LBMA uses the Comex 'spot' price, and that is why the LBMA does not post spot prices. I think we now know the real answer, don't we?

Allen -- I repeat aurator's comments -- great pickup yesterday, and as far as I am concerned, whatever ANOTHER told us seems to have come true.I do with whoever ANOTHER is would be more explicit, though. We don't need to know who is buying and selling, just that there will be a purchase or ? of some kind.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 09:50 - ID#229214)
metals price updates
Price updates are working at the top of the page at:

Happy Trails !

(Thu Mar 19 1998 09:57 - ID#177109)
i' m verplexed, verplaetse........
["The programme has been finished entirely. In order to avoid any impact on prices in the gold market, these operations were carried out exclusively with

different central banks," Verplaetse said, leaving it unclear if the gold had remained with the other central banks or been sold on.

"It has not influenced prices on the gold market and neither the liquidity of the monetary market," Verplaetse told a news conference.]

This is of, course, the man who pledged to the Euro goldbug

CB's a year or more ago that they ( Belgium ) were through selling gold. But what does "different central banks" mean? This does not sound like idiomatic Euro-English. Was the statement released or made in English or translated by a reporter? In some American English idioms "different" can mean several or variable, but this is not the common meaning which is, well, different. A "different" CB in this sense could only be the BIS, or *possibly* an international agency bank ( WB, IMF ) .

Another aspect of this reminds me of Veneroso's remarks that some gold dealers have been stung by this Belgian and Dutch clearance sale over the past few years. The idea was that these low country bandits place some gold for sale by dealers while saying that's all there is, and then dump some more while the dealers are carrying the inventory ( bagholders ) . I'm thinking that the dealers are refusing to deal with them, and they had to use a CB trading desk ( BIS, NY FED ) to move the merchandise. This would make a private ( non-govt ) buyer a little more transparent to "authorities" which is not what they normally like. Of course NM Rothschild or someone like them ( is there anyone? ) could have acted as "quiet" agent for the buyer or for themselves.

We still do not know who bought the Australian gold, at least I don't. Rumors ranged all the way from Soros to China and Korea CB's. The latter seems unlikely in rerospect. Nevertheless these are two reasonably large deals totalling about $5 billion at market price, rather a paltry sum in these days. If this were a stock deal we wouldn't bat an eyelash. What will Merrill Lynch go for?

I think the main point is that the governments of the world have given further evidence, if any were needed, that they are an impoverished lot and getting more so by the month. By selling gold for US bonds, since that is where the proceeds end up, they are grasping for income. This is a bad or a good sign depending upon whether you would rather have your freindly, familiar local government rule you or large private corporations and individuals. Most western governments have been liquidating and distributing a liquidating dividend to their politically favored "shareholders" for some time in the form of social transfer payments. This may just be more of that long term project from the 1930's.

We think that the US, Germany, France, Switzerland, Italy, and the IMF have not been selling their gold, apart from coinage sales, and that they are holding still substantially what they have had since the 1970's disgorgements. We know that China and Russia have been buying some gold but we don't know how much. Middle Eastern government and private gold holdings ( not always separate ) have varied, but suggestions have been made that this is where some or much of the recent gold offered has been going. It is interesting to speculate that the massive pumping of oil recently by OPEC members may in some cases have been for purposes of funding gold purchases. I have no proof of this, only hearsay.

$5 billion is also well within the range of many wealthy individuals and corporations/funds.

Another possibility with the EMU looming on the horizon would be US gold purchases. In earlier times gold was bought at guaranteed price from our mines. Doubtless the Tresasury will want the US dollar to remain the primary reserves unit, a place of honor which has sometimes seemed threatened or compromised by the coming of the EMU unit. On the other hand if the EMU unit is to be backed by dollar bills and bonds, even if only as "backing" for EMU bond issues, is it really much of a threat?

Less so I would think if the Euro CB's are offloading gold with which to buy US Treasuries. ( Of course they may be buying German treasuries. This would partly explain the amazing bond rallies in Europe. )

The point is, however, that the US with its declining deficits ( budget, current account, not trade ) might wish to make a statement ( quietly ) by adding to gold reseves. $5 billion is really nothing of substance for US finance except as a political/economic statement.

These are some overnight thoughts, based not on insider ( or trade ) information.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 09:59 - ID#57232)
Appreciate your posts on silver!
RJ: I am not doing trading either. But -- this looks like an excellent opportunity to buy more silver during the 'Clash of the Titans'. Never expected silver to drop this much -- I guess this shows how much the market can be manipulated in either direction.

Personally, I don't understand why anyone would want to sell silver right now, before the next big runup.

Any comments about gold? Agree with the Kitco assessment that the announcement of the sale of 300 tonnes of Belgian gold was the end of the gold bear? What remains to be seen is how much gold the europeans will need to back their new currency. Considering how weak Europe is relative to the US right now, it will take a big sales pitch to get people to shift away from the US dollar, IMHO.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 10:02 - ID#298259)
Royal Oak may shut down Kemess gold mine

(Thu Mar 19 1998 10:02 - ID#288155)
Some markets act rationally, i.e., stocks go down on bad corporate results....
Hong Kong Business Standard Thur Mar 19 1998

Tech stocks drag Taipei, mixed day for B shares
Taipei stocks dropped 1 per cent on strong selling pressure on the technology sector triggered by negative corporate results, brokers said

(Thu Mar 19 1998 10:05 - ID#411259)
..... Say it once, Say it twice .....

Silverbaron -

Sadly, I "knew" nothing.. Nobody knows what these markets will do, but I did suspect an attempt to slam silver down to at least the 5.50 gap. My posts last night were meant to be cryptic. Funny thing is: I spelled it out quite clearly two days ago and nobody seemed to notice. The following from Wed Mar 18, 1998 00:16:

"Look for a SERIOUS spanking in silver tomorrow. The longs see the gap at 5.50 and they will wait for the fill to reload, leaving the funds free to sell our blessed silver into a black hole. I still have lots-o-silver in the mid $6 range, as do many, we will see those levels and higher before this whole thing is played out, but not before a bit more down. I too expect WB to buy more silver in the mid $5 range; he may end up with the 200 million oz he originally intended to buy."

After seeing the response to ANOTHER's posts, I figured that just telling it strait, without extraneous mysterious nonsense, gets little notice. If, however, one writes with cryptic and vague aplomb, all sorts of fellows will speak endlessly about possible meanings, and peer deeply for portends. This was on my mind last eve.


(Thu Mar 19 1998 10:08 - ID#288155)
Only politicans [or economists] could feel 'cheer' at this development...

Lower wages, higher taxes force down savings
Japanese average household savings fell for the first time in four years in 1997, as higher taxes and falling wages left consumers with fewer yen in their pockets.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 10:17 - ID#289357)

Thanks for your insight. You are probably correct in your statement about drawing attention when you hide your message inside some sort of cryptic statement. Perhaps that says a lot about the psychology of the gold/silver bugs just now - looking under every rock to find out who owns what, who's selling, who's buying, who is in control, what are they likely to do. Things for us outside the daily market workings are not transparent at all. which contributes to the intrigue.

One thing I strongly believe is that under the conditions we have experienced in the last 6 months, the ONLY buyers of silver and gold now are traders, and investors with VERY STRONG HANDS. It will take a large incentive for me to divest my little hoard of the physical stuff, because I really didn't buy it for investment purposes in the first place. Maybe others feel the same.

The mining stocks are another matter - those are for investment purposes, but in any case - will only leave my control under very much higher prices, sometime in the future.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 10:19 - ID#348286)
Pretty good call on platinum. How long are you holding on, target ?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 10:24 - ID#288155)
The talking CNBC heads mentioned that some goods were UNAVAILABLE...

in major retail outlets in NY. A trend? A harbinger?
Ive posted several times about shipping problems developing in the Asean world. What happens to rosy scenario inflation if there is a dearth of goods on which to spend all those strong dollars? mmmmmh?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 10:30 - ID#401237)
Just Maybe

I have been concerned for some time with the inability to put a tag on these markets, in particular; are we going to experience inflation or deflation and is the Asia problem going to affect us and if it does, how will it affect us?

Some numbers are coming in that start to clear the view of what is really happening.

CNBC has reported the following this morning:

1 ) PPI was up 3% which indicates inflation, remember Oil is at historically low price levels.

2 ) Imports are DOWN 1%, when everyone expected the US and the rest of the world to be flooded with imports. Large stores are short on Asian inventory

3 ) Nike and income warnings, why, they should have an advantage of cheap labor and their net should be increasing. May be that Asian instability is not only affecting Asian buying of products but also the production. Nike does not own those Asian sweat boxes. Even if an Asian company has a foreign contract they may not be financially functional.

4 ) Asian funds may be coming into the US markets, note that the DOW moves significantly positive at the end of the day; further draining Asian capital resources.

5 ) Preliminary conclusion is that Asia has a liquidity crises and that Asian industry can not get enough funds to produce.

6 ) US exports to Asian are not that significant, therefore may not be a factor.

Therefore, this would explain the confusion in the bond market and among the rest of us as to what is going on? We may have a perfect scenario for Gold. Cheap imports from Asia have been slowed.

Once Oil stabilizes look out.


(Thu Mar 19 1998 10:31 - ID#271349)
RJ say it again
RJ I took note of your remarks about silver, and if I recall correctly, platinum as well. Silver now headed for 5.5 as I had been thinking possible once 600 broke cleanly. Was it you buying platinum with every appendage? I am a novice and a Kitco lurker, but thought you might like to know that simplicity is appreciated out here.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 10:34 - ID#7568)

The same fund that blew out about 25 - 30 million ounces on Tuesday appears to be establishing an equivalent short position today. It is likely that todays selling will mark the low at least for the short term.

One of the things to keep an eye on are the lease rates. Tuesday's and todays sales put a lot of pressure on the physical market because the silver must be borrowed in the cash market to be sold. If this silver ends up in strong ( non-lending .... WB, Tiger etc ) hands, the market could get into a squeeze position very quickly. As I write this spot silver is trading 10 cents higher than May. Just a few days back the market was in contango. If this level of tightness exists for more than just today and tomorrow, look for the game to begin anew.

Just as this fund was targeted on the downside, so shall it be a target on the upside.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 10:37 - ID#228283)

Severarl days ago I posted a buy 2 platinums and sell 1 gold because of some amateur chart work I do and asked the group for input. Received none because no one could find how much plat. was in storage The spread is WORKING TOO WELL because historically the spread is $80 to $100 different. The SAME happened to the gold/silver spread just before silver exploded.
I also asked if anyone could confirm that the rumors of Russians being almost void of platinum were true. Maybe the market IS telling us the truth. If so platinum has a way to go on the upside and will drag gold up thru all the stops on the COMEX, which is delicious! Yum,yum.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 10:38 - ID#410194)
Silver (True or not?)
We hear some speculation this morning that Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway has sold some of its 129.7 million ounces of Silver. Berkshire Hathaway refuse to comment. I think they must have had it with all these Silver moves being associated with them.... the latest moves not being too much in their favour so I don't think they are interested to comment on any of their doings for a while.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 10:42 - ID#25588)
I follow your posts along with a few others. No matter how experienced one is in this business there is always new bits of information and/or ideas to be learned from others.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 10:45 - ID#266110)
@Donald your07:53 --- RE: Dow Gold ratio
I agree with your hypothesis on a Dow / Gold ratio of 2:1 or even 1:1. The question is: "how will it play out?". Will it be gold at $US 1,000 and the Dow at 1,000 or something like gold at $3,000 and the Dow at 3,000?

While the details do not necessarily matter, there is a point to be made. When the Dow drops, gold's value and buying power will increase dramatically, and I mean DRAMATICALLY. IMHO. There are further implications about the future buying power of gold than just the effects upon the Dow. When the buying power of gold increases, then wealth will be transferred from those who put their trust in paper assets ( and electronic assets ) , to those who have gold.

But there may be something even more significant in what might occur. In the 1930's depression, it was the first time that nations went off the gold standard. Since then, we've had 60+ years of paper inflation, the likes never seen before. And what holds it all together? The flimsy trust of the public. There is nothing to back the drunken issuance of currency and loans. Bad loans are "written" off with the shrug of a shoulder. Governments have a vested interest in keeping this scenario going.

If gold actually backed the currencies of today, then the kind of abuses that have ( and continue to happen ) would come to a screaching halt. But no, we create even more funny money to pump into the market through the IMF. And we reward the wrong kinds of activity because of the need for government to continue both, its addiction to debt and redistribution of wealth in order to keep an iron fist on its power. ( Through the redistribution of wealth, government "proves" to the populace just how much we "need" them. And in doing so, it creates an environment in which anyone who would criticize government's "compassionate" concern for the people, will be shouted down by the rest of the populace as being uncaring. So, those who don't agree with the abuses of government have little choice but to keep a low profile. There's no place for rugged individualism. )

Keep in mind -- MASSIVE DEBT has been accumulated by CGs, like never before. This debt HAS TO BE EXTINGUISHED. It cannot go on. Look at the "minor" inflation of 30% created by Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia. Last year this time, the Asian markets were "robust" and "strong". In less than 6 months, we saw a massive blood letting that will make the collapse of the fiat currency system seem like the crashing of a 747 as compared to the Piper Cub crash of the Asian "crisis". We have a system that has continued a 60+ year expansion of asset inflation to unprecedented bounds. This system has rewarded destructive and non-productive behavior/activities. There is no possible way that a system built on such shaky ground can continue indefinitely. I think the collapse is coming - sooner rather than later.

The only true shelter from the storm will be PMs becuase the fiat currencies will be swallowed up in the whirlwind. Maybe instead of hyperinflation caused by government printing. We will experience massive inflation based upon all of the government vehicles that already exist - and not a deluge of new money.

Remember how it was in post WWI Germany, paper currency was used to light stoves, while TANGIBLE GOLD gold was universally recognized as the only REAL MONEY.

A great site to put this all into perspective is

AG's words in 1966 were right on target. He puts it all into perspective.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 10:47 - ID#197289)
Jack - Richmont - Institutional holdings
Jack: re #252127 Mar 17 16:05
Institutional investors own 9,000,000 shares or 60% of the company.
This is not a rumor but comes direct from Richmont.
Sorry for the delay but I have a job.
Hello ..... Jack ...... are you still there?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 10:48 - ID#286249)
Highrise, your point #4
Wouldn't inflow of Asian funds to US markets be an historical
anomaly? In times of economic duress, do not funds flow BACK
to the center, in an effort to salvage whatever can be salvaged?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 10:48 - ID#33164)
Hello All -Special hello to you, JTF!
Sorry JTF not to have responded to last mail yet-will do.
Have just snatched a golden 'moment', saw you were on-line, and thought you'd be interested [ and anyone else of similar insatiably curious & excellent mind with the technical/scientific expertise needed to assess all this]

Crooks'daughter tells me he has been looking at the Trend correlation between the DOW and neutron flux. As he has no computer, and is somewhat of a hermit, I find it frustrating that there is no dialogue between his & other minds such as yours. I have no doubt that his .618 Constant which he's shown on scientific data other than his own in his books has already proved if we could only get a team together who have the consistency and enthusiasm to decipher the timing riddle!!

I asked that she give me the URL for you chaps- and insert her response below-

"Here's the website on neutron flux:

Regards to you all

(Thu Mar 19 1998 10:55 - ID#228283)
Who, in this astute forum ..

previously posted that silver always gives you a second chance ?
Is this our second chance?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 10:59 - ID#266105)

The lone ranger. If one is to speak the truth, have one
foot in the stirrup-- Turkish proverb

(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:01 - ID#287358)
For Silverbaron

Dido! Start passing out the pamphelts. He who has the gold has the last laugh.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:05 - ID#228283) SILVER tongued devil you!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:09 - ID#289357)
Perhaps one of our learned friends could translate that last statment of yours into Latin for us.

I would like to have someone create a T-shirt with a Big Fat Gold coin, and that statement on it.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:18 - ID#33164)
Bart Dear- what is the 'copyright' story? I certainly cannot give anyone the calibre of posts such as SDRer and those many others give, and notice SDRer hasn't a copyright notice?

[Hi SDrer! ( :- ) ) Still great posts! ]

(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:23 - ID#228283)

Submit your suggestion to Bart as a money maker for KITCO!

Illigitimi non carborundum !

Read the lines AND in between

(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:24 - ID#25588)
I just bought back my May Silver shorts at 5.60 and went long.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:27 - ID#289357)
Ersel @ 11:23

Not a bad idea; will do.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:31 - ID#220325)
APH Thanks for the silver information.
What do you anticipate for the high on this run up?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:34 - ID#25171)
Gold Silver Ratio
All these hedge funds which have the GS ratio with the bear leg on Gold are getting smoked today.
All these hedge funds which are short Gold outright are getting scared today
How much more can they take ? After all their gains on their shorts were booked last year. Now they are at the mercy of a hike in Gold lease rates.
By the way,the money being poored out of Asia during crisis is mostly hot and volatile money belonging to rich individuals ( including a lot of gvt officials ) or rich trading corporations .They want to secure whatever they can if there is a total collapse of the economy.If they loose their core business they still will be very wealthy.To the hell with the people!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:41 - ID#256326)
Thank you brother APH. Something which took six months to run up in five waves and has corrected a nearly fibo amount in three waves over two months is an overbalanced market begging to be bought.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:42 - ID#246224)
Hello, Colleen!
You have been published. Doesn't it feel good? As some have said it makes one feel ALMOST important! Hope you and all your are well. Triedthe URL but my server said "No DNS entry".

(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:44 - ID#28098)
From China news site....Where would you invest (see item 5)...

This Week's News

1.Economic prospects promising: WB official ( Mar 19,1998 )
2.Nationwide investment appears set to increase ( Mar 19,1998 )
3.Swedish company sees Chinese market potential ( Mar 19,1998 )
4.Anti-pollution campaign vital ( Mar 18,1998 )
5.Auto imports decline; exports up ( Mar 18,1998 )

(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:46 - ID#22956)
*seasonal tendency*
Ersel - your amateur charting looks exactly like a seasonal tendency that has been posted in MANY publications. Here it is:


Buy 2 Oct Platinum

Sell oct Gold 3/18 to 4/16 93%


Hmmmmmmm... Congratulations on coming to the *exact* conclusion doing only chart work. WOW! My hat is off to you. Tell me, how did your charts tell you to buy 2 plat and not one or three?? and sell gold?? ( scratching his head ) ...



(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:48 - ID#28098)
Colleen! Our wonderful Sprite!
Your presence ADDS happiness...thinking of your beautiful
"Ascot [ie]" headgear from Harrod's! Hope all is well, and proceeding
according to 'well-laid' plans!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:51 - ID#25588)
Snowbird - If 5.57 is the bottom and we're not sure yet. I would call it a wave 2 bottom with a projected wave 3 high of 10 - 12 dollars by August or sooner.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:53 - ID#246224)
Ah, SEQUIN, how cynical of you!
But probably right on target. Wealth knows no loyalties these days. HOT MONEY MOVIN'. In milliseconds it races from key strokes to digital, virtual holdings, to transiting currencies to .. whatever. It knows no boundaries but its owners' imaginations. It is not tangible. It is the neurological impulses of a great collective.

The only problem is that that collective and its medium of expression are about to be destroyed by a computer programming error so ubiquitous, so subtle that no one can smell its seething fuse. But the day will come when ALL that wealth TRIES in vain to find its way OUT of the ether of virtuality and into tangible substance. When the smoke clears from the explosion only those who hold real things will be 'wealthy'. It will be quite a stampede for the exits into the material world.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:54 - ID#36156)
Silverbaron - aurum est risus [gold is laughter]

(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:54 - ID#33164)
Allen -Hello
Sorry it didn't work- will phone Fiona Crooks again tomorrow and see if I can get the correct Url from her - You may like to chat to JTF about neutron flux and the Markets, as he's so knowledgable about all this. He did say he had some neutron flux data, but it was 'sketchy', and I hoped the new site would give this further and up-to-date info. [ every 1/2 hour, I believe] Apparently it has remarkable effects on human behaviour- Stockomania?- and would be interesting to see what you chaps think. The site is a Russian site- an alternative name she gave me for a search waS MOSCOW NEUTRON MONITOR , but have had little time for anything.

Not sure I feel important at all!! ( :- ) ) Inadequate, more like it!!
Must fly-

(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:54 - ID#342282)
JTF re email
I got yours. but not sure mine went. If you did get one shortly ago, let me know and I'll repeat.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:57 - ID#287358)
For Silverbaron

That's a great idea! I want to pre-order now.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 11:58 - ID#228283)
@EB...I appoligize...

for upsetting you enough to make one of your ascerbic remarks. tell me,oh observent one, who is MANY??? any relation to ANOTHER???

Go Gold!!!

Spud Master
(Thu Mar 19 1998 12:06 - ID#273112)
@Silverbaron - Latin tranlsation
He who has the gold has the last laugh.

my best stab at translation is:

habet aurem, habet utlima risibilis.

this reads something like: "he has the gold, he has the last laugh"

A real Latin scholar could do the original phrase justice.


Spud Master
(Thu Mar 19 1998 12:08 - ID#273112)
sorrow - still recovering from flu :/
tranlsation = translation
utlima = ultima

Aragorn III
(Thu Mar 19 1998 12:11 - ID#212323)
Bart response to my 16:24 post yesterday
I'm am honored that you and several others found that post to be interesting. Sometimes it is insightful to try to view events ( such as the issuance of gold-backed currency ) through the eyes of the public. I'm sure the European culture and history is conducive to a far more rapid progession of logic to arrive at gold's role and purchasing power in the money system than could be expected by their American brethren.
And Bart, I'm confident that you didn't expect me to fail to recognize the bullion dealer's strategic operating methods for maintaining a sound's just that the PUBLIC may perceive the bullion dealer as addle-minded for swapping EURODollars for 100% gold when the Central Bank will only capitulate fractional gold per paper value. In the ensuing confusion/enlightenment about the money a bullion dealer will have an enviable operation, and the public wins also because they will be buying physical gold. Again, any gold-backing at all for a major trading currency will eventually enlighten the public...but they must be able to redeem the paper for physical at their discretion and purchase and own bullion to complete the equation.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 12:11 - ID#220325)
APH Great information
Thanks for taking the time.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 12:16 - ID#25171)
A spokesman for the Bank of France issued a statement this morning
" BOF has no intention to sell any of its Gold" He was reacting to BCB 's annoucement yesterday.
This is in the true spirit of General De Gaulle 's request to exchange all BOF dollars against Gold when FRANCE split whith NATO
( Don't hear me wrong; De Gaulle was one of the most evil stateman in FRANCE ever )

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Thu Mar 19 1998 12:21 - ID#26395)

You too can have a copyright on your posts merely by exceeding 100 words. Quantity, not quality is the rule.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 12:25 - ID#288155)
Walking the circle...[this is a 10/97 piece, worth a revisist]

It Would Create Panic Now

The room for fuel prices adjustment is getting cramped. Dont give people with more burdens.

The burden of fuel subsidy was admitted by Dr.Pande Radja Silalahi as to have been causing heavy burden to our national budget of 1997/1998. Should this burden be reduced, the impact would be to increase or to adjust fuel prices. Whereas premium price in Indonesia, according to the economic observer from the Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS ) was already very high compared to several other countries. "Therefore, for more price increase, this will bring more burden to the people," said the former Rector of Parahyangan University in Bandung.

In his relaxed way, the PhD graduate in economy from Kobe University of Commerce, Japan elaborated on the many reasons of his objections if the price of oil is to be increased in the near future.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 12:27 - ID#372262)

Qui aurem tenet, optime ridet. He who has gold in his hands ( holds ) gold laughs best.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 12:29 - ID#57232)
Brief posts - busy
RJ: You almost sound envious of the attention given to ANOTHER and his mystical, often less than clear posts! I am quite happy with your delivery, and the human touch of telling us your reasoning. I would preferentially vote for your style of delivery anytime! There are enough riddles in the markets anyway -- we don't need them in the posts too! Thought you were going to give us your thoughts about the recent CB gold sales -- if you have time, please! Personally, I think the gold-selling 'cartel' is unraveling, just as it did at least once in the 70's. We won't have that much of a run-up, but even $400/oz would be nice! Have you noticed that the gold/cry0 ( spot ) ratio is now at a 10 year low?

Colleen: Thanks for your neutron flux website - did not work when I tried it -- could have been a bad time in the day to try.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 12:32 - ID#342282)
Colleen, re Neutron flux url
I tried at least 6 times and no connect. If you're right it must be me. Thanx

(Thu Mar 19 1998 12:34 - ID#375108)
APH + D.A. + RJ, et al.
Appreciate the insights you bring to these markets. Thanks. Go silver.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 12:37 - ID#269409)
@ RJ...Great call on Platinum AND silver!!
A++++ Now that's what I respect, a guy who actually knows the market as a pro, is involved in it every day, all day, and uses his experience and knowledge to actually make ACCURATE calls! Not 100% perhaps, but extraordinary nonetheless...particularly compared with Shmoe's like ANOTHER who called for a big player to move the Gold market up by the end of this week.... ( Course we still have Friday to go...but I think it's safe to say ANOTHER's "insider" insights have gone up in a puff of smoke...always thought his posts were smoke n' mirrors anyway, but the True believers luv im! )

(Thu Mar 19 1998 12:43 - ID#7568)

Looks like the boys went on a little whaling expeditition in the silver market. Also looks like they may have pooned a big one.

Just for balance on the Buffet rumor mill, the grapevine has it that WB may have tacked on another 40 million in the last few days. Amazing how the rumors run with the price.

One fact which I can report is that about 5 million ounces worth of May 625 and May 650 calls were purchased a short time ago at implied vols well north of 50. Someone has laid down a few hundred thousand dollars of chips on a very short term game.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 12:48 - ID#57232)
Warren Buffett harpoons the great silver Whale?
D.A.: We Kitcoites are scrambling for the long boats! Thanks for all the news.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 12:54 - ID#57232)
chas: Didn't get your e-mail yet, but my ISP e-mail is unpredictable. Still haven't figured out why my home Pentium crashes with 'insufficent memory' -- I have 48 megabytes, and Netscape 4.04. Work 486sx is still doing just fine.

I saw your interest in the neutron flux data. If you know where to find this, or long-term geoelectromagnetic field data ( preferably real time ) -- I am interested. I have monthly Sunspot data to 1750, but am looking for comparable ENSO,SOES,geoelectromagnetic,neutron flux, etc. time series data.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Mar 19 1998 12:56 - ID#347447)
Utes hitting roof?
The moment of truth for the stock bull may have arrived yesterday. The Dow Utilities, my favorite crystal ball, had begun to turn back from the massive resistance noted at 280. It's only a day, and perhaps a bit early to tell, but what the hell. The Ute top may be in! The charts tell me here is where the BIG resistance is, and the last few weeks have been a tailending move. If the Utes have had it, then interest rate rise cannot be far behind. Stocks can follow a declining Ute average by anywhere from 2 to 8 months. So shares could still squeeze higher ( I was looking for 9500 top ) in the next couple months even if the Utes start to soften. But the important point HERE is that gold will not bull until interest rates bottom and begin to rise. Period.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 12:56 - ID#289357)
Here's another one for you to Lantinize

( A corruption of the NC State motto 'Esse Quam Videri' ( To be rather than to seem )

How 'bout:

'To be money, rather than to seem ( as ) money'

Mike Sheller
(Thu Mar 19 1998 12:59 - ID#347447)
IN flation
One more note: Watching CNBC at lunch a few moments ago and they took their OWN informal survey of several American towns & cities of price changes for a list of very real, human items we all use. They found a 2.4% month to month rise over last months CNBC "Inflation index." These folks could redeem themselves here. Items like CD's, toothpaste, Breakfasts, etc, etc. REAL life.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 13:02 - ID#289357)
chevy @ Kitco motto Tees

Bart wants me to make 'em & he'll sell 'em to support the forum, but merchandizing isn't my thing. Anyone else who wants to take this project on, have a go at it.

And you Latin scholars - just one translation ( that you agree on ) , please.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 13:07 - ID#289357)

Congratulations, guys, I am impressed, big time!

I was gone to lunch during the silver turnaround, and just looked at the charts. UNBELIEVABLE !!!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 13:18 - ID#26793)
@Lock & Lode
I would expect to see Dow and gold at 1000 & 1000 and not at 3000 & 3000. My reason is that the excess has been on the Dow side of the ratio. As markets tend to overshoot to the extreme it would seem that stocks take the hit. Dow 3000 was only a short time ago. Because I expect deflation during the worst part of the Dow drop that will tend to dampen the rise in gold. Folks who put everything into stocks and are now broke will be selling the family jewels for eating money.

Bully Beef
(Thu Mar 19 1998 13:21 - ID#259282)
Warren Buffet (buff it). When you are that rich there are few goals left.
He's just trying to finish what Bunky Hunt failed to do. Arkansas? Wut part of Texas Is that?

PH in LA
(Thu Mar 19 1998 13:23 - ID#225408)
Stayin' with the times

Yesterday Allen ( USA ) and JTF unravelled the ANOTHER prediction and showed rather conclusively that he was referring to the Belgium CB sale of 299 tons of gold that was announced yesterday. Please check it out and give us your opinion on their analysis rather than a rehash of your oft-published skeptical fog about ANOTHER which always sounds a bit like envy, anyway.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 13:23 - ID#25171)
Bank of England
Terry Smeeton , head of the BOE's foreign Exchange division stated today that" Central banks due in at the start of Europe's single currency could sell Gold without reference to their Europartners until the end of this year.Monetary Union doesn't formally start until Jan1st next year. I think it's the right of national CBs to adjust their reserve composition to prepare themselves for what they may have to give to the ECB"
Obviously it is not only in Japan that central bankers get entertained lavishly.I am sure that a lot of UK based bullion dealers love this guy and will stay short as long as he is around.Note that the BoE shows a lot of nerves to comment on something they are not part of.They still resent the french and german snub from 2 month ago when they were ousted ofrom the council setting up ECB rules.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 13:24 - ID#269409)
....Flux Shmux.....
Yikes! Now we're talking precious metals investment strategies based on Nuetron flux from the sun. Amazing.....You'd get more effect from the EMF's given off by the clock on the wall...let alone all the other dozens of appliances around you, than you'd ever get from the solar wind's influence on our investor psyche. Oh well, it's always more interesting to go for the magic, than the science.........

(Thu Mar 19 1998 13:25 - ID#36977)
ADVERTISEMENT >>> LURKERS . . . Support Kitco and BUY Mounties!
Bart -- hope this is permitted. Ordering was easy.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 13:26 - ID#347235)
b*&^ards grind you down.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 13:29 - ID#26793)
@Haggis: here is the London gold fix stuff

(Thu Mar 19 1998 13:30 - ID#256326)
whaling expedition or wailing wall;- ) ///////MikeSheller: my sentiments exactly.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 13:32 - ID#342282)
JTF re email
Will try afterwhile and into this evening to email you. Maybe it's the flux!!. Hope not the bloody flux. Will work on your interest. Thanx again

(Thu Mar 19 1998 13:32 - ID#36977)
Is there additional postage from US to Canada?
or is it still just 32 zinc thingys?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 13:38 - ID#269409)
PH, with all due respect to JTF / Allen, two Gentleman contributors whom I respect, there's simply NO WAY that even the most tortured interpretation of ANOTHER's prediction of a big BUYER that would drive Gold way UP could be twisted into meaning the CB SALE of Gold by Belgium.

But of course, 2 days ago, I predicted that when ANOTHER's progostication came to naught, we'd start seeing all these new and bizarre interpretations of his post, so that we could all "keep the faith" in the mystery wisdon from ANOTHER.

Come now PH, saying I envy ANOTHER because I post skeptically, is like saying I envy Puetz because of his Eclispe calls! The guy I envy, is RJ! ( How high do you think Platinum will go RJ??? )

(Thu Mar 19 1998 13:51 - ID#258427)
Chas...mail came thru..
You now have programming...

(Thu Mar 19 1998 13:52 - ID#410194)
Quite a spectacular "40 cents range day" so far in Silver.

The following is from FWN:

today, but have been able to trim their losses
substantially when the market bounced after fund sellingdried up, traders said.
"There was good liquidation this morning by funds," one
dealer said. The May contract fell all the way to $5.57, its
weakest level since $5.43 on Jan. 13.
"But there was physical support down there," one dealer
said. "Once the selling dried up, it bounced back verystrongly."
May silver has recovered nearly back to $5.90, and the
dealer noted that local London trade has been up around$6.04.
He put support for May silver at $5.60, with "minor"
resistance around $5.95 to $5.98, then "more major"resistance around $6.30.

Lurker 777
(Thu Mar 19 1998 13:54 - ID#317247)
I have a futures account and I need advice. I want to :

Sell 3 Dec. 99 270 option puts/ Bid $340 Ask $440 ( $1320 )
Sell 3 Dec. 99 280 option puts/ Bid $550 Ask $650 ( $1950 )
Buy 4 Dec. 99 290 option puts/ Bid $820 Ask $920 ( $3680 )

If I use the Ask prices for the trade I will owe $410 difference. I don't want to pay more than $500. plus the 3- 270 & 3- 280 Puts for the 4- 290 Puts.
How do I tell the broker to do this trade?
Is this a two legged Option Spread with a $500 cap?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 13:58 - ID#269409)
@ PH..Beating (ANOTHER) dead horse
PH, heres what I said Tuesday...just one day before new analysis came out stating that ANOTHERs post about a big buyer driving Gold up by this weeks end. has been mis-interpreted by us all, and it REALLY meant the Belgian CB sale of Gold!! Below that, is ANOTHERs actual quote for reference....

Date: Tue Mar 17 1998 15:55
LGB ( @ Realistic...ANOTHER, Oil Gold ) ID#269409:
Copyright  1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
AS Reagan would say, There you go again! Posting actual predictive quotes by way of "reality check!" Don't you know
that when "ANOTHER's" prediction falls totally flat ( by Friday ) , we're going to hear a whole chorus of how his
analysis is right on, and only his timing was off?

Not only that, but be reposting his quote, we're now going to see yet another round of linguistic deconstruction. You
know, the meaning of the tense of the verbs, the meaning in the original Greek of ANOTHER's papyrus manuscripts, the
meaning when read backwards, the hidden esoterica in the subtle "signals" it all relates to the dual Friday 13th
between Eclipses theory...........

Personally, as I mentioned when ANOTHER's post first appeared, I find the link between oil and Gold to be mighty
bearish for Gold short term. And now we have the news that oil has now dropped to a 9 year low as of today....

The ANOTHER quote

A large purchase, now, is sending another message, "bring gold back into $320 to
$360 US$ range. We should see this in five to ten days. This will be a hard thing, as it may create a crush to cover. Let us
watch this "new gold market", as it is not as before.
I will post later in march!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:00 - ID#246224)
Now LGB, regarding neuron flux ..
I got to tell you that it indeed is VERY influencial. In fact I was JUST about to post a rather long, drawnout and emphatic post on how this works. But it seems like you've just stepped on my puppy and I feel AWEFULLY bad about it right now. ( hang dog looking frowney thing )

As regards to 'NOTHER's posts. I am an observer of them . They are interesting, much more so than reading my own rather conventional posts. And s/he DOES seem to have a different point of view than just about everyone here. I'm still keeping an eye and ear open for that disqualifying contradiction or prediction. As for the last post s/he did not predict that gold would rise to $320-360 last or this week. The prediction was of a 'sizable sale' which would communicate that THAT range was were gold should be.

As for the Belgian sale it was to/through five unnamed CB's. Very possibly a swap for US$ cash or bonds. Then again possibly a way of filtering a sale into private hands with the utmost discretion. Pains were made by the BCB director to explicitly describe the sales as not on the open market and intended to keep from jazzing the market.

Well, my neuron flux gauge is running low and I'd better lay back for a while to ponder the imponderables for future posts.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:04 - ID#25171)
Some broker might say that you are buying a 290 280 270 ladder 3 times plus a 290 put
just give it to him as a linked order where u want to buy the ladder AND the put for whatever amount of ticks u want to spend

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:09 - ID#342282)
Trying to contact some textile firms. Hanes left here and so far no luck. Will report later. Great idea. Have to watch hawkers.

PH in LA
(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:11 - ID#225408)
ANOTHER lives in spite of LGB!!
LGB: OK, OK, already. You said it all two days before...etc...OK! But at least have the decency to demonstrate that you know what we are talking about and have read what Allen ( USA ) et al have said on the topic before you expect us to take your skepticism as more than just an empty formula. To put it another way, consider sticking to the subject at hand rather than reiterating positions put forth ( and taken in ) in the past. We'll love you all the more for it.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:13 - ID#269409)
@ Allen
Ever study Neutrino capturing studies using measurement equipment that they bury deep underground to measure solar ourbursts? It's interesting stuff....but I do indeed remain a skeptic of it's influence on investment/market cycles. We've heard it all before re Eclispe theory, something completely disproven when objective scinetifically designed studies are done. Must O post the URL's yet again?

As to ANOTHER.... his posts may be interesting, but that has nothing to do with credibility of his market knowledge. Psychic healers are more interesting than MD's, but I wouldn't advise visiting one for cancer treatment.

Tomorrow will tell matter how esoteric his writing style, the prediction he made of 5 to 10 days bringing in a large buyer, changing the nature of the Gold market, driving the price higher, etc etc can't easily be interpreted as anything other than what it quite straightforwardly says.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:14 - ID#287358)
I'm sorry but I couldn't sell an igloo to an eskimo. Anyone who wants to use the pharse is more than welcome.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:16 - ID#28098)
Walking the Japan...
One has only questions...
What is it that Japan has NOT done..
.it has refused ( by not taking overt action ) to bundle bad loans into the accepted round-eyed configuration, i.e., sweep bad loans out of the banks where your strongest supporters are in control, place bundled bad loans into a bad bank, shut down selected banks to which you are politically indifferent, and carry on...

So, is it fair to suggest that Japans crime is in not playing to the Western Belief Game?

That, in refusing to accept the tenet that losses dont matter--as long as they are quarantined--- Japan has called the Rules-of-the-Round-Eyed Game into question? Is THAT their cardinal sin?

And what is the properly articulated question behind the BIS that Japan subscribe for an additional 8,000 shares? Because Japans banks were in trouble? And it was a REQUEST, not a dun, on which the BOJ board of governors voted...AND Japan has the MONEY...but not, evidently, the inclination to play the Losses Dont Matter game any longer...

So, was BIS having difficulties? As unthinkable as that seems on the surface, in this time and in this place, one is compelled to deal with the unthinkable with dismaying regularity.

Japans actions--or careful Inactions--may lead one to conclude that a different road will be explored in the future.

Because, one regrets--but nonetheless, one affirms--that Japan, Indonesia, etc., etc., are no more prone to cronyism and corruption than the USG....or so it appears from this place on the circle.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:19 - ID#342282)
Silverbaron re tee shirts
Trying to contact some textile firms. Hanes left here and so far no luck. Will report later. Great idea. Have to watch hawkers.
Forgot header on previous

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:20 - ID#269409)
@ SILVER...yes!
On to ANOTHER topic... I love the action today in Silver and I'll go "barely" out on a limb by stating that we've seen the bottom of this current correction...Higher prices ahead short term, higher highs ahead by year end ( $8.00 + )

I'm going to buy a few thousand shares SSC today if I can get filled at $1.00

DA/Realistic/RJ have all posted excellent analytical comments re the activity in silver past 3 days. IMHO, the action in silver, confirms that the final major attack on the downside has ocurred, and we will now see more battles waged where the longs prevail.

Gooooo Silver.... ( And LOVE that Platinum....I'm going to sell some shortly though and take profits, by late next week, you think I'm premature RJ? )

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:25 - ID#57232)
Belgium , gold and ANOTHER
PH in LA, LGB: I don't think I said that ANOTHER's prediction was specifically in reference to the Belgian gold sale. However, I think there is a good bet -- simply because it looks like there is a 'two-tier' gold price out there -- one for the public ( us ) on Comex, and one for the LBMA or BIS.

The key point is that ANOTHER made a comment about gold going to $310-320/oz about this time, and it appears that the LBMA price was about the same -- thanks to Allen ( USA ) 's digging, not mine. Also there was another ( forgive the choice of words ) Kitco post that a Rothschild had proposed that gold be sold at 'auction'. Now -- why do that if the Comex spot price is the correct price?

So -- by inference, ANOTHER may have told us something. However, as I have posted many times, I do not take any posts in this site seriously without confirmation, and I propose that you do the same with any of mine. All that being said, I do weigh more heavily posts from D.A., RJ, Oldman, and APH.

It is a waste of time to disagree whether ANOTHER said is right or not -- the point is that we were alerted, and something bullish for gold happened. That is all that matters. Think about it -- that is the only time ANOTHER has given a specific time for the event. Usually he is very vague.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:27 - ID#342282)
Allen re your's on neuron
Great post. The real connection is neuron/neutron. I'll do my best to email you why if I have an email address for you. Thanx

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:28 - ID#246224)
The "Iron Triangle" and Y2K
Some one has described "Energy", "Telecommunications" and "Banking" as the 'Iron Triangle' ( I wish I could remember in order to give the credit, sorry ) as these relate to Y2K. These systems stand as the core of our modern way of life. If any of these is seriously impaired for any length of time then everything else in our modern social and economic environments grinds to a halt.

As a triad they all must work or nothing works. At best we have a 1 in 8 chance that in any one place all three will remain intact. If power drops then the other two do not matter. If power is OK but telecom dies than banking is toasted. If power and telecom were OK its still a 50/50 on the banking sector. These dependencies compound the likelihood of systemic failure.

Each of these sectors has significant problems to overcome but power and telecom have the greatest exposure to embedded systems vulnerabilities. There's a lot of chips out there and virtually no way of testing them. The power industry is way behind, hardly even admitting there is a problem. They have less than two years to completely map, replace and test every chip in every pc of equipment they own or operate.

If it is neccessary to triag the continental power grid by compartmentalizing each plant, line and sector, so that those which work are not dragged down by the failures than telecom will be used ( ? ) to coordinate the effort. If telecom is not operable in the areas where power work is being done than, you guessed it, no triag. I think you can see the problem.

And if power dies then everyone will call 'mom and dad' to see if they are OK. Of course this will completely overwhelm the telephone system.

Let's look this square in the face. No power, no nothing. No telecom, no nothing. No banking, no nothing.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:28 - ID#342282)
Allen re your's on neuron
Great post. The real connection is neuron/neutron. I'll do my best to email you why if I have an email address for you. Thanx
Sorry, forgot my address---

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:32 - ID#269409)
@ Allen...Y2K
Yesterday's WSJ had an article on Banking industry and Y2K, re costs associated with borrowers potentially defualting or suspending payments on loans due to Y2K difficulties.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:37 - ID#269245)
Astronomy is not Astrology, and neither is the marketplace!
A comet just collided with the moon, throwing the moon out of Earth's orbit, causing major tidal/weather turbulance. I am in my sailboat, taking my treasures to more sensible, profitable destinations. Suddenly a huge wave appears ( as I am distracted by the moon's irregular motion ) washes me overboard, and I watch in dispair as my boat sinks to the bottom with my gold. Then, I fill my lungs with sea water and go after the damn stuff! THAT IS HOW ASTRONOMY RELATES TO GOLD! Please leave Astrology out of it. It hurts me so much to think that people actually listen to such insane mislogic! Allen, please snap out of it! You are a much better critical thinker than that. I do not consider economics to be religion or science; rather it is trade. "How do we allocate our scarce resources? What do we consider valuable and when?" The only thing I might find a little more valuable during a lunar eclipse would be a telescope and some popcorn! Sheesh!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:40 - ID#25171)
Central Banks
One might wonder why some CB are so vehemently anti-Gold.
The Belgium debt to GDP ratio is above 120% This might explain why they don't want any relationship between Monetary agregates and Gold to be reestablished.
The australian sold their Gold arguing that they had huge underground reserves! When they need it it will take a while to extract.That was a dumb reason.
The Dutch hate monetary reactionaries ( that's a way to describe us )
Maybe the most cunning are the Brits.They could be buying?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:42 - ID#26793)
Protugal has not sold gold but is active in swaps

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:45 - ID#224149)
Never ending story
Another is like a virus that lives in Kitco and kills off all the logical posters. Away to find disinfectant

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:46 - ID#330175)
This could be a
Yesterday scientists revealed that beer contains small traces of female

To prove their theory, the scientists fed 100 men 12 pints of beer and
observed that 100% of them gained weight, talked excessively without
sense, became emotional, and couldn't drive.

No further testing is planned.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:47 - ID#26793)
France insists it will not sell any gold (Previous post is "Portugal"

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:48 - ID#330175)
Poorboys @ Lake Simcoe & the loonie
Good call mate!!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:49 - ID#330175)
Peggy Witte @ Royal Oak

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:50 - ID#341214)
Allen, LGB: Y2K
Allen: Those are good points to think about. Regarding the statement "At best we have a 1 in 8 chance that in any one place all three will remain intact", is this your own prediction or do you have a source for it.

LGB: Thanks for the Y2K post. Seems a bit out of character for you to post something that probably ( have not read the article ) supports Y2K alarmist views. Are you changing your mind on this subject or are those of us that support the alarmist view still "Y2K freaks", as I think you recently referred to them.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:51 - ID#330175)
Royal Oak needs money(who don't?)

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:51 - ID#252127)
oldgoldpanner; Re: Richmont Mines

Thanx for the info on Richmont Mines, a 60% institutional holding of Richmont's approximate total of 15 million shares outstanding speaks volumes about this well run and successful gold producer.

While exploration is the hearthblood of mining, there are to many companies whose bold predictions are just so much hot air.

RICHMONT OF COURSE IS NOT ONE OF THEM. What they produce are results, not interesting news stories with glorious perdictions.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:55 - ID#26793)
Alan Greenspan has a lot of interest in the gold price

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:55 - ID#410198)
SEQUIN,its not that CB are anti-gold if you look at all the CB that sold/lease there gold
all had currencies that were in the tank,if you had a bunch of these what would you do,bolivar,cruzeiro,dinar,forint,escudo,lev,zloty etc

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:56 - ID#288369)
@Disparaging ((THOUGHTS)) a few more jiggles out of a dying horse....
My business partner, who is an avid Kitco lurker ( smarter than me because he doesn't post ) , uttered a salient observation this morning regarding Another. He said that it would be wise to throw Another's thoughts into the same barrel as all other posters'...mix it with all the other posters' thoughts. He said a dangerous fallacy would be created by placing Another's work in a special pot. In other words, all posts should carry the same weight...because all people and their thoughts comprise the market. Conditional or selective appraisal would likely yield biased conclusions. Interesting.
I guess the main problem I have with the vaulted preference afforded Another's thoughts lies in an aspect that is hardly tantamount to the pursuit of thruth. Let me say it this way....Another knows he occupies a special place of priority here. He can not be oblivious to reads, thus he knows. He has read the conclusions and the investment strategies that have been developed or are being developed around his thoughts. He has not issued any warning or disclaimer that would prompt caution or impede any other poster or lurker from acting, as in investing, based on his thoughts. This is why I question his motive.
If I began to sense that any of my Kitco friends were about to risk their hard-earned money on one of my calls, I would be quick to enjoin that reaction. I simply would not want to suffer the consequences of this, albeit "we are all sophisticated investors".

I know we all want the inside scoop....BTW, I muchly prefer a scoop to all the brilliant technical analysis available in the world today. But why would anyone post the scoop here at Kitco?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:57 - ID#330175)
TYRO(13:32).......................greetings from Cape Breton
YES,there is additional postage to get a letter from the states to Canada but Canada Post will probably still lose your letter!!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 14:58 - ID#238295)
For the life of me I cannot see how the Belgian sale signals that big buyers want gold between $320 and $360 as Another has suggested. Does look like the gold bear is near an end, but I do not think we will see a decisive move above $320 for some months yet. Just like the stock bull will take time to roll over so will the gold bear.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:01 - ID#330175)
Studio.R......are you sayin my 'scoop' ain't---------------- somethin-----get out the 'pooper-scooper'!!-well,back to my gosh-darn charts ( well-used ) ...Musac is soooo LOUD I can't think ( duh )

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:01 - ID#342282)
Allen re yors 14:28
If you're familar with the NEW MADRID fault system ( Mo. ) you'll know the main trunk lines for phone service cross this. Any movement on this system can emit powerful emf's. Bell Labs knows this, but not what to do. You are on the money

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:02 - ID#26793)
Trent Lott says Camdessus should be removed; "he is a French Socialist"

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:03 - ID#224149)
Loony forever
Ted  C$ --MACD sell signal mar 17. Still like the C$ .7018 is my buy area. ---Maybe Friday ---Nothing like investing in Loony Tunes. The comedy is free.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:06 - ID#307364)
Midwesterner and others re Allegheny Mines Corp.
It took me more time than I wanted before answering the question you asked in your Mar 17 message. The reason is that I am not myself a mining expert and I wanted to give you a correct and undestandable answer. So I asked one of my friends, who is not a geologist but has a technical background, to prepare a text for you. He knows Allegheny very well and has studied the Vanguard properties base metals project.

Here are his comments:

" My research to date indicates the Kashabowie properties are located in favorable volcanic setting ( fault locations, type of volcanic rock and rock alteration ) for a major base metals discovery. The setting is similar to Sturgeon Lake, Matagami, Noranda and Kidd Creek.

" A base metals deposit is never isolated; it tends to occur in clusters of up to 10 or more orebodies within an average circular area of approximately 32 Km in diameter. Typically these orebodies contain from 1.0 to 10.0 million tons ( Mt ) . But there may be much larger deposits. Located at less than 5 Km from the West Vanguard, the Northcold Stream Mines ( a neighbouring property ) hosted 2Mt. The West and East Vanguards host together a mimimum geological reserve of 0.3Mt. But they are larger than that: on the East Vanguard alone, where Allegheny drilled 10 short holes on the first 100 vertical feet last summer, the deposit " is open at depth and to the west where higher values were encountered ". Are they the second deposit of the cluster?

" A bundle of metallic showings are shown on the AYM Kashabowie Vanguard Project Map. It is evident a hydrothermal system has passed there, very close to the Shebandowan Lake in the middle of the Allegheny Kashabowie property. This system has left much more than the Vanguard deposits.

" Then we better undestrand why the last AYM News release tells us: " Three parallel structures are recognized across Allegheny's Kashabowie Shebandowan Vangard property ". Those structures are separated by approximately 1Km ( on a large scale Shebandowan map ) . The two priority targets of the Company have respectively lengths of 1.8Km and 0.6 Km. Third and fourth deposits of the cluster? "

All these deposits are not yet proven. But the Company has made surface works including IP during the autumn and the beginning of 1998,. They are discussing for a jv. And their main targets now are outside the traditional East and West Vanguard area drilled before, which means they have seen something else better than that. So " there looks to be potential with a reasonable risk involved ", as mentioned by the Preacher in his Mar 17 message.

Hopefully this gives you a better undestanding.

Waiting for replies.


(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:09 - ID#36977)
Ted - Canadian Post Office
Maybe I should spring for FedEx???

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:09 - ID#252127)

If you are the most productive society globally and you want to stay within a competitive position while hopefully repatriating your oversized US dollar holdings without sending your currency to new heights-------WHAT DO YOU DO? SIMPLE: YOU MAKE YOUR DOMESTIC FINANCIAL CONDITION LOOK MUCH WORST THAN IT IS.

This allows for your currency to be acted upon by two opposite forces, creating a mininmal change so that you can still buy commodity cheaply and produce your products. Also you want to save or guide some of other Asian countries who are in hock to you out of their morass, but you do not want to be their reserve currency. It carries to much ups and downs, and you like stabilty.
So come on Mr. Harshimoto, get mad buy a lot of gold and convince the SEA's to use gold backing.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:11 - ID#342282)
Silverbaron re Tee shirts
Trying to contact mfrs. 2 left, one back tomorrow and the other??

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:12 - ID#246224)
LGB re: neurons, .. er, neutrons
My post was in jest. Neurons != Neutrons. Another off centered, wacko post for your amusement. Please go back and read it again. ( smile thingy )

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:17 - ID#246224)
All our systems are based on an expectation of stability. What happens if that is not the condition of the future? Systems don't work.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:19 - ID#255284)
Trent Lott
It's worse than that, Camdessus is not a French Socialist, but

" He's a socialist from France."

And there's a world of difference.

G'day buddie.

off to the salt

Bully Beef
(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:20 - ID#259282)
If you want to get fluxed.( Fleeced)
See ANOTHER at Now these are real predictions on stocks and PM's.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:22 - ID#28098)
Donald, your 14:55 gold post...

``While gold has many virtues, it's not as highly liquid obviously as dollars or yen. Therefore one wouldn't expect any central bank...
to hold a majority of their reserves in gold.''

There you have the thesis statement of 20th century banking; liquidity,

Donald, your Mission, should you care to accept it, is--
Please find for us an Islamic bank that accepts deposits from non-Muslims.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:23 - ID#288369)
@Teddo......I always think you are brilliant....
So...into the pot you go. 1998...the year of Los Locusts...buzzzzz. God, it's cold here...must be 35 or so...30 mph wind....send me an old coat, pal.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:24 - ID#238295)
gold bull and stock bear
April gold up 70 cents despite another strong rise in the dollar index. Gold's reaction to news -- the most single indicator of a market's technical health -- continues to improve.

Some here have expressed the opinion that the gold bull will not begin in earnest until the financial bear commences. My take is that the gold bull will begin several months BEFORE stocks, bonds, and the dollar break down decisively. The smart money probably will start moving into gold aggressively when they sense the end is getting close for financial assets.

RJ: I do not trade silver and platinum, but still want to congratulate you for your brilliant calls on these metals. You are one of this forum's most valuable contributors.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:29 - ID#410198)
Donald,thank you add that to Rubins statement yesterday"The financial stability of the world is at
risk"then Albright added "We are in danger of shutting down U.S.national security policy"........... desperation comes to mind,

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:31 - ID#269245)
They PM currency model is already in place and senselessly ignored.
One ounce golden eagles have a face value of $50. This is LEGAL TENDER! Thus ( if you are a US citizen ) , when you use gold for purchases ( ie boats, cars, houses ) you report the purchase at six times less ( $300/$50 ) than you would if you paid in paper money. Why does anyone want to use paper when taxes on a purchase could be reduce six fold using "gold dollars." Even better, use Silver Eagles. A car advertised in the classifieds for $5000 can be purchased for 500 to 750 Silver Eagles with a face value of $1. You pay sales tax on $500 to $750, a factor of 6.67 to 10 less than if you had used paper moner. This is perfectly legal. When you use Platinum Eagles, you only save on taxes by a factor of four. Canadian Maples are even better than "Eagles," due to the currency conversion. FIGHT THE PAPER MYTH, USE YOUR COINS, MAKE THEM WORK FOR YOU, SPREAD THE WORD, INCREASE THEIR DEMAND, AND TAKE A BITE OUT OF INFLATION! - c

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:34 - ID#289357)
Allen(USA) 14:28

I agree with your post, except a couple things I would add to the mix:

( 1 ) shouldn't overlook the importance of this, in view of our recent universal adoption of just-in-time delivery. A one-time scrambling of all the rail cars in the country ( so no one knows what is where, and where it should go ) would have all sorts of unforeseen effects.

( 2 ) Faith in the system.......this is probably the most important thing of all. If the public faith turns to fear, then your 1 in 8 scenario is very optomistic.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:34 - ID#269245)
Allen - I took you seriously too! Please disregard. - c

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:36 - ID#210235)
@Clone's suggestion
Are there any ( USA ) legal eagles who could comment on Clone's last post. Has this position been challenged in court yet? It's most intriguing.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:45 - ID#22882)
Proof Coins

Does anyone here know where to obtain infomation about $100 face value 22 karat gold proff coins of legal tender produced by the Canadian Royal Mint. I believe these coin were minted during the 70's & 80's.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:47 - ID#15388)
Cloans post

o.k. but a 1 oz. eagle costs $300.00, so arn't you in effect paying the same?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:50 - ID#269245)
If you used real Silver Dollars to make a purchase, they are still recognised by the government as $1 even though coin dealers recognise them as worth a lot more - period. golden eagles are backed by the US government for $50 and ARE legal tender - period! If only the Freemen realised this! Posts by 6pak yesterday ( and everyone else for that matter ) got me thinkin'... PUSH THE PHYSICAL!!! It WILL make a difference! - c

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:53 - ID#246224)
f-METAL re: 1 in 8 chance at best. Try 1 in 512 chance if looking one step deeper.
Basic combinatorial product of 3 elements; 2 to the 3rd power = 8. Since they must ALL work ( OK, OK, OK ) or things grind to a halt there is only 1 state in 8 which is a working state: power=OK, telecom=OK, banking=OK. All other combinations do not work.

This is the BEST chances given all only having one point of failure which could keep each sector from functioning. In fact there are probably "A LOT" of dependencies ( points of failure ) in each of these sectors which could distrupt any of these sectors as a whole. Let's consider three catagories: hardware ( embedded chips ) , software ( lines of code ) and inter-system connectivity ( host to host data swapping ) . For each sector all three must run perfectly. This again is a 1 in 8 condition for success and only a 1 in 8 chance at best that a particular sector will not die.

A 1 in 8 chance that power will remain OK. A 1 in 8 chance that telecom will remain OK. A 1 in 8 chance that banking will remain OK. A combinatorial product of 1 in 512 chance that all will be OK in any particular area. ( This is getting to sound more and more like a lottery for the chances of successfully surviving this. )

Greenspan has said he will cut off any banks, whether domestic or international, which can not prove Y2K compliance. Yardeni has upped his expectation for "severe worldwide recession" from 40% to 60% resulting from Y2K problems just recently. AT&T has multiple billions of lines of code to bring into compliance. GM has 2 Billion lines. Greenspan has said that banks ALL must be 100% compliant for things to not shut down.

Only two of the issues in the above paragraph ( software and interconnection ) are being discussed. Hardware ( embedded ) is not discussed. It is to invisible to even think about ( since most people do not understand these devices or how they operate anyway ) .

Isaiah 47:5-15 seems appropriate:

( v9-11 )

"..But widowhood and the death of your children both shall come upon you completely in a moment, in one day.. you trusted in your crookedness and said "no one sees me doing these things" and your so called 'knowledge and wisdom' has perverted you .. evil will come upon you and you will not know where it is coming from and you will not be able to put it off: and desolation will come suddenly for you .."

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:53 - ID#341189)
Donald - On the Smeeten interview
I read the report several times: each time it seemed stranger and stranger. Why is a British CBer talking about gold and the EU a few days before retirement? And in the scheme of things, what difference does it make whether it is May or December - the clock is still ticking for the shorts. Is the BOE involved in the short trade and he's setting up an alibi ( time left ) as he exits? Something is there between the lines, I'd bet.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:54 - ID#269245)
Yes, golden eagles ARE worth $300 ( to me they are worth a lot more! ) . That is the beauty of it! They are only recognized by the USG for $50. - c

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:55 - ID#28098)
Clarifications and Approbations

One might argue that liquidity is a function of value; the more vaulable an item, the less liquid it will be, a simple observation of economic reality.

Offered, in 1934, the "Mona Lisa" painting [to be stored by seller for you in Zurich] or 10 million Spanish pesatos, Italian Lira, French Francs, German Marks or Pound Sterling, which would have served you best as a CONSERVATION of your wealth? That which was least liquid at the moment of choice. The truth of great value elminates the possibility of great liquidity. The cheaper something is--the less value it holds--the greater may be its transaction volume.

What do you want? Ten million acres of the best farm land in the world or 10 trillion USD? Wheres the tractor?

But how sad to live at a time and place where only transaction/price is highly valued; and where the concept of value itself has been lost.

Clone@The.Dazzle.'em.With.the.NEW.REALITY What a [you should pardon the expression] Sterling Idea! Can we go along to watch your first purchase?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:56 - ID#411149)
SILVER IS DEAD according to Kathy Jones so called director of futures
research @ Prudential on CNBC. Now iffin you all don't know this B-T-H is
one of your/our best enemies. We ought to get her in a tote sack
haul her a-- down to the white house and sick klinton on her!
BTW- she also said that was not sure what Buffet would do with his pile
lease it of just dump it.

Tally Ho

Aragorn III
(Thu Mar 19 1998 15:57 - ID#212323)
Clone's post
Excellent! You pay US$300 for 1 oz. Eagle with a US$50 face value. You walk into a bike store where the owner is as savvy as you are and you find a bicycle tagged at US$300. You flash the Eagle, he smiles and rings up $50 on the cash register plus tax. Tax for you is smaller than had he rang up $300, plus you could conceivable use the receipt to show that you took a loss on your precious metal investment ( bot at 300, sold at 50 ) for a capital LOSS, also the bike dealer could show receipts that he bot the bike for $225 or whatever and sold it at a loss for $50. I believe you are my kind of thinker!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:08 - ID#57232)
Neutron Flux

Cosmic rays of solar or galactic origin are a major mutagenic source for biological organisms through the millenia, with periods of high earth surface activity causing high mutation rates in the organisms that survive. Neutrons are are a major ( uncharged ) component of 'cosmic rays' hence their usefullness as a marker. Earth magnetic field inversions are a ( fortunately rare ) period of high risk to human life because the geomagnetosphere does not deflect the charged cosmic rays. Right now we are at a level of low cosmic ray activity -- one of the reasons we humans are now flourishing on this earth.

Solar activity and the strength of the solar magnetic field also modulate the flux of cosmic rays reaching the earth, and hence our general health. As I recall the effect of generally increased solar activity is beneficial because it tends to strengthen the geomagnetosphere, thus blocking charged cosmic ray activity. Thus, if I recall correctly we may be moving into a period of low cosmic ray activity. However, high energy solar flares are detrimental.

So, the cosmic ray question is a complex one to unravel, but it is highly relevant extraterrestrial modulator of human health and activity.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:13 - ID#269409)
Fundametalist...Y2K...& Allen
No my Y2K post wasn't made due to changing views re Y2K. Just trying to report the news, even when it runs contrary to my views!

Actually, I havn't been one to try and say Y2K won'y affect financial; markets. Just the cost of upgrades and fixes alone will certainly have an impact on profit/loss statements. However, my own personal Layman's opinion is.... it'll be a "non event" on 1/1/2000 relative to all teh predictions of imminent collapse of markets & institutions. My faith remains with the thousands of folks who will be working on this over the next 21 months. They'll achieve enough progress to prevent any major disruptions. ( Meanwhile, I'll certainly save my "Hard copy" bank, brokerage, and 401K statements in 1999! )

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:14 - ID#410198)
RAY is that the same Prudential that paid millions in fines for ripping off old people

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:14 - ID#246224)
Clone, you are a such a creative thinker!
I like that in a fellow Kitco-ite!!! Go gold.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:14 - ID#287312)
Day Dreams
Wish I had a VDJXT ( Dec. 99 Dow put ) for every lie Clinton has told, WOW

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:17 - ID#410194)
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released this afternoon:

Gold: Unchanged at 567,574

Silver: Fell 214,250 troy ounces to 90,096,326

Copper: Fell 578 short tonnes to 113,180

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:17 - ID#368244)

Funny you should mention rail cars. At this time 5000 of em are backed up all over Texas. All rail shipments into that area are put on hold. I know because about 10 loads of lumber belong to me.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:18 - ID#330175)
TYRO......................not PYRO
Not a bad idea bro~~~~~~Canada Post suks

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:19 - ID#408147)
Clone does the retailer avoid being screwed on this deal by simply going to their nearest coin dealer and convert to cash to play their employees, etc??? Would still look suspicious on a balance sheet -- Uncle Sam would tax the 'capital-gain' on the $50 gold to $300d cash -- or would they?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:20 - ID#347235)
Kathy Jones is just hoping you will dump silver so She/Prudential can buy it up and enjoy the uphill ride. I still thnk now is a good time to by all the gold you can without borrowing any money because when it does take off we will all be glad we did. HOOAAAHHH ( A little Army Lingo there ) . GO GOLD!!!!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:21 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.20 ( This is NOT a new high )

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:21 - ID#330175)
Poorboys.................and Loony tunes are us
Go Vegetarians & gold too....Death to Another!!---P.S. What did the Can $ do today?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:22 - ID#330175)
What kinda pot ya puttin moi in??---me only coat is ragged---can ya spare a dime buddy?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:22 - ID#411149)
robnoel- that is the same SOB's. We put most of them out of business
in my area by tellin the truth. You know term and funds! Those folks
have done really well and I am beggin them to GO TO CASH now.

Tally Ho

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:23 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .247

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:23 - ID#410198)
Clone,interesting post,however what you save on taxes you will
spend more on attorney fees trying to explain that to Uncle Sam

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:24 - ID#330175)
Aurator.......................and sunroofs can be dangerous
G'Day mate!!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:24 - ID#22882)

Your idea may also apply in moving money out of the country. The $10,000 paper maximum should be equal $60,000 worth of golden eagle coin with $50 dollar face value. Interesting.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:25 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 48.83

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:28 - ID#368244)
Gold stocks

Amazing!!! All my gold stocks went up today. Hope its a sign of things to come.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:34 - ID#410198)
Explor/clone I hope you guys are just bantering,you are putting out bad info
if someone takes this as serious they will incur huge legal bills if not jail

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:37 - ID#57232)
$300 gold coin with $50 face value as legal tender
clone: I am no legal eagle, but I think the problem is that although these are not collectors coins, I'm not sure they are considered by the government as 'legal tender'. However, it might not be a good idea to publically press the issue, because the government might get nervous, and stop letting us buy bullion coins. On the other hand -- only the buyer and seller know what has happened if those gold bullion coins are used. Exchanging receipts for much less than the actual used goods sale is also fairly common practice to reduce taxes, though I have not done that. Another point is that on the US 'black market' -- mostly rural areas, services and goods are exchanged already without using any dollars. Hence there is no payment of tax! The governments defense would be to police every small town in the US, and monitor all financial or non-financial trasnaction -- an impossible task. The only area the government has a chance of collecting is when large corporations do this -- like in exchange for like. As I recall, the IRS does have rules about that.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:40 - ID#288369)
da Power Pot....buzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Turn the musac down...I can hardly think....neutron neuron i'mron dadooron...huh?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:43 - ID#372262)
Where's the Beef?

Clone--Sounds great BUT you still have to pay tax on the original PURCHASE of Gold and SIlver Eagles!! Where then are your savings on taxes? You pay a sales tax to buy the eagles at six times+ their real value only to turnaround and purchase items with already taxed eagles at 6 times+ their real value. Either way, you PAY THE TAXMEN!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:46 - ID#372262)

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:47 - ID#341189)
Good name for a gin. MAKE A COSMIC MARTINI!!! Think I'll do that right now.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:48 - ID#227290)

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:48 - ID#269409)
@ JTF...Solar
JTF, firstly, we agree that solar flares, outbursts, changes in energy output, etc. have a demonstrable effect on a number of Earth / physics / biology / etc. systems. As to a major effect on humanity or other lower forms of life ( such as the CLinton's for example )'s all rampant conjecture.

Now as to how all this affects financial markets and POG in periods of months or years....while I'd concede there may be some effect, my educated guess would be that said effect would be the same as spitting in the Ocean affects the tides and Global warming.....there are just too many dozens of other fundamental market forces that surely would overwhelm any affect of solar wind on POG prices.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:49 - ID#269245)
Don't you think that such a court case would be bullish for gold? Couldn't it prove to be the demise of unbacked paper money? Such a case would become an international debate. Gold would either be confiscated forever or be resurected. - Well worth the battle in my eyes. Mines and other interest groups would definately back the defense ( I hope! ) . The question is, does anyone have the balls to confront such a corrupt legal and law enforcement system ( Freemen! ) ? You all do realize that we sold our freedom when this whole unbacked currency thing began, right. You all would back such a case, wouldn't you? PUSH THE PHYSICAL! - c

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:50 - ID#57232)
Neurons vs Neutrons!
Allen ( USA ) : Did not see your post in jest to LGB. Any more thoughts about yesteraday's dialogue? I doubt a two-tier gold price system will last very long -- the cat will get out of the bag very soon. Aragon III's post about the europeans understanding the value of gold much better than Americans was a good one -- any comments, thoughts about the EURO? My problem is that the EURO is likely to be very weak with recession in Europe. What are they going to do to launch the EURO 1/1/99 -- back it with a boatload of gold?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:53 - ID#269409)
@ Tax on coins
Golden Proph. is right. Any investment you make is considered, for tax purposes, in terms of it's "basis" which is total "paper" dollar cost, vs. total "paper" dollar gain, rendering "face" value meaningless.

Now as to escaping a portion of sales taxes by doing a direct exchange, the IRS, and the state tax boards, would call this a "like kind" exchange ( in other words, 2 itesm having relatively same value ) and would tax you on the "dollar" value of the exchange not the face value.

Great ideas though! Let us know if anyone pulls it off successfully.

Aragorn III
(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:53 - ID#212323)
The GOLDen Prophet
I'm aghast! Why have you been paying sales tax on your bullion purchases? Where do you obtain your metal? Stop this at once!! It is not necessary.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:54 - ID#197211)
Could this be where the Belgian Gold is headed????????

Obtained from Arabiaweb. December 1997.......DUBAI- World gold council says that Dubai beat its own record in importing gold from January through November with 600 tons of the yellow metal reaching the country. Dubai is considered the main re-export center in the Middle East with destination reaching all around the world. WGC added that gold imports to the United Arab Emirates ( UAE ) member came to 595.6 tons in the first 11 months 1997, compared to 318. Tons imported in the same period in 1996. For November1997 alone, gold imports totaled 66.9 tons, nearly double the 33.5 tons imported in November 1996, stated WGC. Most of the gold Dubai buys is re-exported to India, Saudi Aribia and the Middle Eastern countries with new destinations such as Egypt and Iran on the move. WGC director for the Middle East and India, Rolf Scneebeli, said that since 1994, this region has been showing a consistent rise in gold demand. SWITZERLAND, Dubai's top supplier, has provided 401.3 TONS since January 1997, followed by BRITAIN which sold the Emirates 127.4 TONS and South Africa which sent 47.8 TONS.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:55 - ID#252127)

Robnoel makes an excellent point about problems that clones gold coin purchase method may bring one legally.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 16:55 - ID#288369)
Most of the sales tax here goes to the funding of public schools and city/state services ( infrastructure ) .

Ronald Jett__A
(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:00 - ID#413119)
London gold
Please, did london gold trade today? The Kitco area hasn't been updated.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:00 - ID#269245)
robnoel - your points are well taken, but it is too late!
I should consider that we no longer have free speach either. Perhaps you are right. I should consider the ramifications before I speak out. Well, what is done is done. The internet is a wonderful medium for individuals to exchange ideas. We, as a global community, must take risks if we desire to maintain our freedom. - c

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:00 - ID#57232)
Neutron flux and the gold market
LGB: What would happen if we had a really big solar flare ( days duration ) , and everyone was feeling poorly from the radiation dosage. Would that affect the gold market? Just a thought -- would be like a low level neutron bomb.

I will freely admit I do not know what natural events modulate the markets. However, I know that there is external modulation, and I will keep looking.

Charles Keeling
(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:01 - ID#344225)
@ ALL RE: Gold Sale Info
I have been gone for awhile, so this may,
or may not, be information that you already

Gold Market

Belgium's Central
Bank Sells 299

More sales to come?

Belgium's central bank
revealed yesterday it had
sold 299 tonnes of gold,
worth about $2.8bn at
current prices, over the past
few months. This was
enough to satisfy about 8
per cent of global annual
demand and almost
equivalent to the output of
Australia, the world's third
biggest producer.

The sale cut the value of
Belgium's gold reserves
from BFr164bn to BFr61bn
but added BFr110bn to
foreign exchange reserves.
The bank made a profit of

Gold fell more than $5 a
troy ounce immediately
after the announcement
yesterday - close to the
18-year low of $281.30
reached in December after
Australia's central bank
said it had sold two-thirds of
its gold reserves.

However, the price
recovered to close in
London down $1.55 at
$290.40 after Alfons
Verplaettse, governor of
Belgium's central bank, said
the gold had been sold to
five other central banks. He
refused to identify them.

Nevertheless, Andy Smith,
analyst at Union Bank of
Switzerland, said the
experience of eight previous
central bank gold sales
showed this was harmful.

"In not one of those cases
was the gold price higher
after one week and only
after the 1993 Dutch sale
was the price higher after
three months," Mr Smith
said. That was because of
the brief rise caused by
intervention in the market
by financiers George Soros
and Sir James Goldsmith.

Belgium was responsible for
four of the previous bullion
sales and it has now
disposed of about 1,000
tonnes since 1989.

The country's finance
ministry said the capital
gain from the sale would be
used to repay public debt.
Analysts pointed out this
would cut the debt, nearly
120 per cent of Belgium's
gross domestic product, by
less than one percentage

Mr Verplaettse insisted that
Belgian citizens would also
benefit because the gold had
not produced any income
while the foreign currencies
it was swapped for would
yield interest.

Mr Smith said it would take
some time for market
participants to absorb the
implications of Mr
Verplaettse's revelations.

Taken at face value, the
governor had suggested the
European Central Bank
would hold 15 per cent of its
$43bn of pooled reserves in
gold, equivalent to 660
tonnes. The 11 members of
the new bank would hold
back five to six times their
ECB contributions and
one-third of that, about
8,000 tonnes, would be gold.

However, as the individual
central banks at present
held about 12,000 tonnes,
this left 4,000 tonnes "as a
dead weight".

Financial Times, March 19,

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:02 - ID#346458)

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:03 - ID#410198)
Clone,although I agree with your questioning authority,a 60's thing
a few years ago this was tried,WSJ ran a article on a guy who attemted to buy a house for $120.000.00 with a rare tail feather Morgan Dollar,to cut a long story short,he just PO'd all the wrong people,and ended up costing him big time,the best way to get what you are looking for, support Dr Eugene Schroder

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:04 - ID#341214)
Allen, LGB: Y2K
Allen: Thanks for the clarification. I'm still stuck back in Statistics 101. Were you still interested in finding out what I'm personally doing towards Y2K planning or would you rather have some ideas ( books, URL's ) on how to get educated towards that end? I can finally get around to posting the personal stuff this weekend, if you're interested.

LGB: Hard copy and Hard money will both help. It wouldn't surprise me to see you do an about face on the subject sometime in the next year or so so keep us posted. As you know, I'm one of those hard at work on the subject ( 55 to 60 hour weeks right now ) . There just is not enough time nor enough qualified people to get the job done right and on time. Simple fact. You certainly wouldn't put your faith in hard working brokers to tell you how to approach your investments and you shouldn't put your future in the hands of companies and governments that have seen this event coming for literally decades and have waited until the last minute to fix it. To me, "the last minute" started in 1997.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:05 - ID#346458)
TheBishop re: 15:06 - Allegheny Mining - What Do You Think??
Tell your friend thank you for me. I appreciate his "technical report", however after reading your post a half dozen times, I'm not sure I know any more than I did before.

Could your friend sum up in "Layman's Terms" what does he think of this mining company as an investment at this time at today's stock price. ( about .56 US )

About a year ago I was told about this company by a friend who was really excited about Allegheny's Vanguard properties. Last April I bought a sizable position in ALY when they had only the East and West Vanguard locations which were about 1/2 mile apart. At that time they had some 300,000 ton proven. Now with the last announcement seems the 1/2 mile has increased to 4.35 miles due to the IP which was recently announced. I guess they have to systematically "prove" more reserves by slant holes. Is that how it's done?

It seems strange to me that the price of the stock has not moved much since this last announcement so this might be a good time to increase my position.

What do you or others think?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:07 - ID#269245)
golden eagles are LEGAL TENDER. If this is not true, then they have been falsely advertised! We have many dealers on this forum. Please contribute and prove me wrong! HOW could this be a legal issue? - c

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:10 - ID#410198)
The only legal way to not pay State sales tax,is buy out of state,California
is a little differant,if you spend more than a $1000.00 on G/S no tax,go figure

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:13 - ID#269245)
robnoel - thank you for the site post. will investigate thoroughly

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:13 - ID#288295)
Isure @ rail cars
With the rail car tracking system being managed by who-know-who's computers, if you are in the manufacturing or distribution end of your business, I would say you're smart if you build up a few months extra inventory by mid-1990 to carry you. You can imagine the chaos that could develop if the system loses the whereabouts of all those hundreds of thousands of cars, and they have to ( 1 ) remain still for a period of national ( physical ) inventory, ( 2 ) determine each car's contents and proper destination, ( 3 ) be assembled a little at a time into freight lines, all without the use ( for some time ) of a computer management system. Sort of a reversion to the 1960's, without the people trained to accomplish the job. Perhaps not a pretty picture, and it may be even worse if you are a shipper like DuPont, who could have a billion $ worth of rolling stock lost for a time, some of it hazardous material.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:16 - ID#342282)
Bart re Tee Shirts
After Silverbaron's note, I made a few calls. Only one response so far. Here are the quotes: quantity- 500 with picture and logo $3.95 ea. ( cheap ) . Same, but better quality $4.45 ea. If this is any help, let me know. Anybody can do better, go for it. I know something about merchandising, but am not in textiles. Good luck. Naturally the more quantity, the less cost.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:16 - ID#410198)
The US Treasury,still values it's gold reserves at $42.00 an oz,call them and try and buy it

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:16 - ID#372262)

Michael J. Kosares of USA Gold informs us that a couple articles on Another's Kitco comments are going to be published in national publications soon!! Once his ideas are spread nationally and televised on CNBC and CNN we'll know whether or not he's a real gold prophet or simply another gold profit!!By the way, Kosares says to buy your personal copy of "Footsteps" ASAP as they are flying off the shelf at the special pre-pub price of $25. $34.95 once they are printed!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:17 - ID#288295)

1990 = 1999

BTW, don't be surprised next year if a lot of people see this problem coming, and abandon their just-in-time arrangements with shippers. It could cause some pricing pressure, unless the 'big one' hits us from the stock market before hand.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:19 - ID#287129)
Explorer (Proof Coins)
While I'm uncertain as to the older coins with a $100.00 face value, it is a fact that you can obtain United States coins with a $100.00 face value: Platinum Eagles.

Can someone explain the logic of this:
One ounce of gold = approx. $300 ( + or - ) , or $50 face
One ounce of platinum = approx. $400 ( + or - ) , or $100 face
According to the official ratio, platinum should be worth $600/oz.

Based on the above, I believe that platinum coins represent an absolutely OUTSTANDING buy at today's prices... so perhaps we'd be wise to own silver, gold AND platinum.

It's also interesting that there is only 1/10th as much platinum as there is gold, yet platinum is only at $400 an ounce instead of $3,000 an ounce. Why isn't the rarity of platinum reflected in its price?


Mr. Mick
(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:26 - ID#345321)
Robnoel - do you have a reference or URL for your statement/quote of Rubin
and Alldike - I mean, Albrite?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:28 - ID#246224)
Post on, bro! Am interested in whatever others have thunk on these issues. If its to long or seems off topic ( PM's ) Email me at , OK? Thanks.

The forgoing posts and odds ( 512 to 1 ) were just a way for me to get a handle on the basic scale of this in simplistic terms. The poem about "For the lack of a nail the war was lost" springs to mind also. It can be pretty easy to blighly opine that "everything will probably work out". But I just don't think that it'll be that easy.

No one would play Russian Roulette with one live round in a 6 shooter. Why play it with a gun that has 511 shells in a 512 shell revolver, eh???


Lurker 777
(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:28 - ID#317247)
Puetz, I need some encouragement here!
Bought some March OEX 525 Puts at the close for 6 and Stops at 4 1/4. The OEX was at 519.71 so I paid about 3/4 of a point premium. The DJIA Broke 8700 for the first time today and tomorrow is triple witching day. This market is nervous and looking for an excuse to sell off. The Nikkei 225 and the Hang Seng will close down in Asia tonight and the DJIA will close below 8622.47 tomorrow. OR I lose everything and eat MREs for a year! And of course this is IMVHO.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:29 - ID#251268)
Golden Prophet,
for a prophet thats pretty old news,had an offer in the mail
2 weeks ago with somebodys gold letter,big add to by and
suscribe to ANOTHER'S stuff,I'm not giving you a hard time
just can't tell if your serious or not,on gold looks to me
like the Arabs are setting up Walmart and Comex is the little
mom and pop store. ( to many regulations and rules and such,
I doubt thats as big a problem for them )

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:30 - ID#410198)
Mr.Mick,hope it's still there

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:31 - ID#347235)
Sales Tax
There is not sales tax in Alaska on anything,except in the town of North Pole alaska. To buy and not pay sales tax email me a and I will connect you with a dealer in Fairbanks.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:36 - ID#372262)

Lurker 777
(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:36 - ID#317247)
The DJIA Broke 8800 not 8700 for the first time today and tomorrow is triple witching day.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:37 - ID#252127)

I have no problem with your thinking, those bastards make the laws easy to break and then they shaft us when we do.
Maybe that shotgun that Cherokee brought up some months ago may eventually become another ( no pun intended ) means for us to express ourselves. God help my evil soul.
On another ( * ) note; when reading various breakdowns of our trade balance figures over a longer time, I have noticed that more gold leaves the country than the US produces, thus I wonder if 'the elite' are practicing Explorer's suggestion.
Just a thought whose meaning is -whats legal for some doesn't apply to us all.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:46 - ID#372262)

Pecunia esse, quam pecunia videri. To be money rather than to seem to be money!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:49 - ID#347123)
Revisiting ANOTHER's Wisdom
It is fitting to revisit ANOTHER's prediction of ten days ago for $320-360 gold, but more importantly to reflect on his past wisdom articulated clearly on golden eagle ( Red Baron's LBMA expose articles ) . Unless a miracle occurs today in the form an enormous short squeeze we won't see $320 gold.

I am about to go out on a limb here but please feel free to correct my ignorance or naivety as a venture into "what if" territory.

ANOTHER has noted that "the western world uses paper as a real value, but oil and gold will never flow in the same direction." Indeed with we examine the "paper price of gold" and the "paper price of oil" we witness a disconnect in directionality compared to the increase in not various measures of money supply ( both specie and M3 ) . We also witness an imbalance between the annual increase in the physical supply of gold ( 2% per annum ) which is exceeded by at least 7% ( real terms ) by M3 increases ( some have argued correctly that it is M1 "paper specie" that probably really counts, but I would tend to argue that this current market run up is built on confidence and greed whose correct proxy is credit ( M2 and M3 ) ....who isn't borrowing to be part of this market? ) .

Global oil supplies are increasing at a rate which is also in disproportion to the increase in US M3 money supply ( someone more knowledgable can provide annual oil production statistics ) . Of course, unlike gold, a significant portion of annual oil production is consumed. Another disconnect, as I have noted is the imbalance between the rate of growth of the real physical economy of the Western world and financial markets, including money supply.

The physical imbalances between the rate of growth in physical stuff ( gold, oil, and the real economy ) , which constitutes "real wealth" and money supply, which is an "article of faith" based on pure confidence must eventually manifest itself in systemic dysfunctions.

Where are the signs of such dysfunction? I proport, as does ANOTHER, that the signs are in the statistics of the LBMA. As Allen astutely noted ( March 10, 20:00 ) key indicator is the fact that 100 times ( 300,000 tonnes ) the annual production ( 3,000 tonnes ) of global gold is trading on through the LBMA ( using the most recent statistics ) . Since the LBMA first revealed its trading volumes ( an unprecidented disclosure ) back in January 1997 ( I believe ) the monthly trading volumes have continued to rise. As Allen asks, why is gold being traded so furiously and why are we witnessing a "fractional reserve banking" a sense a NEW WORLD BANK, using a gold system?

Because, as both ANOTHER and Allen have noted, the real currency "oil" is being transacted in the form of $USXXX+XXXounces of physical gold. If this is the case, the LBMA and Bullion Bankers have indeed every reason to want to maintain the illusion that gold is not "scarce" and steadily move gold price down in an effort to discourage speculation that will result when the world realizes that there is not enough physical gold in reserve by the LBMA or CB's in the world to meet the "call" requirements, if and when they come. I am always amused that the media does not pay any attention to the statistics the LBMA so freely reveals and that the LBMA has become the world's defacto CENTRAL BANK, at least for the transaction of oil, the world's second most strategic commodity. It is as if those who run the LBMA ( including one N.M.Rothschild ) are sending warning "flares" to all of us that an iceberg lies ahead of this stupendous market ship "Titanic". Instead the media and the world remains fixated on inconsequential news of the Belgian gold sale that was immediately absorbed by other "banks" ( perhaps the LBMA and Rothschild banks themselves ) knowing full well how "short" they really are. ANOTHER has supported my own theories that tight connection exists between London, South Africa and the Middle East and those transactions of gold and oil involve the master change agents, the N.M.Rothschild & Sons and other Rothschild affiliates, and undoubtedly their disciple, George Soros. Never forget that these folks know and understand that in these latter days of the confidence game, physical goods and assets are king ( why else is Soros buying prime agricultural land in Argentina, silver interests or Warren Buffet buying silver but offshore away from the "Presidential Order" risk that would be exercised in the US should there be a financial crisis...WB continues to show wisdom )

Enter my next theory as to why oil has dropped so dramatically. If you are part of the gang at the LBMA and part of the Western oil consumer "cartel", and you realize just how vulnerable you really are to the short squeeze and potential for a major default in confidence in fiat currencies and an evaporation of available gold supplies to cover, you buy yourself time. How, by depressing the price of oil itself ( again moving in the opposite direction of the fiat currency confidence game ) . Of course all of this is muddied by real statistics of demand/supply short-term imbalances, El Nino effects, Venezulan over quota production dyanmics. Is this orchetrated smoke and mirrors. The US undoubtedly is content with overproduction by Venezula or increased capacity from Alberta, Canada since it improves their reserve situation and leaves them less vulnerable to the Arabs who continue to request payment in terms of both US$ and gold bullion. The Saudis still make money even at $9 oil and still demand an ounce or two of gold as payment. But, the fact is that a depressed oil price means less gold flowing into the hands of the Arab suppliers, thus reducing some pressure on the enormous short squeeze building at the LBMA.

When she blows, as I believe ANOTHER is alluding to in his $320 gold predictions, we will all stare in wonder and awe at the marvels of that exponential line, just as we stand transfixed at the wonders of the illusionary and surreal DOW or at the plummeting oil price line.

Thoughts?....Where is ANOTHER when you really need him or her. Undoubtedly, ANOTHER is one who understands the value of real physical assets, like gold, prime agricultural land, silver, and oil.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:49 - ID#225273)

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:51 - ID#287277)
2nd most powerful, most admired man (AsiaWeek Power 50 List) speaking 'bitterly'...
Hong Kong Business Standard Fri Mar 20 1998

Mahathir `muzzled' by currency volatility
OUTSPOKEN Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said in an interview published on Thursday that he had been muzzled by fear of triggering a loss of confidence in Asia's troubled economies.

In an interview with Asiaweek, Mr Mahathir, 72, appeared bitter, saying ``the problem we have now is something we cannot even talk freely about''.

``The prime minister has lost his voice. I find that I am actually not allowed to explain. I must say the correct things,'' he said.

``Because if you say something that is not quite right, it will cause what is known as a loss of confidence. And when there is a
loss of confidence, we suffer. We have to pay a price,'' he added.

Mr Mahathir's comments demanding curbs on currency speculators have in the past been blamed for triggering selling pressure on the Malaysian ringgit and other regional units, which have dropped sharply since July.

He said Asia's economic growth in the past decade was ``no miracle, just sheer hard work and doing the right things'' and alleged the growth had been undermined by ``some power'' which he declined to name.

He ruled out a conspiracy in the crisis, saying ``currencies devalue because somebody does something to devalue it. Somebody
wants to make money. You devalue our currency, you make money. That's all.''

He also targeted the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) for veiled criticism. ``We try to follow ( IMF prescriptions ) not because we think the IMF is right but because if we don't, then there will be a loss
of confidence,'' he said. ``But I can tell you that the IMF believes that companies should be bankrupted.''

(Thu Mar 19 1998 17:59 - ID#342282)
Allen re yours 15: 17
I'm sure you know what a blivit is. What happens- exploding blivits, all hell breaks loose, the CEO is crashed and the janitor becomes CEO.

bernatz du ventadorm
(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:05 - ID#182192)
And with a much more powerful computer, I might add
Now the hidden messages will most assuredly get through.

bernatz du ventadorm
(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:05 - ID#182192)
Well they tried and they tried and they tried and they tried
But they just couldn't keep a good man down.

Hey, everyone, how about that there Dow?
Just like I said.

How about nominating RJ as the divine prophetess,
with ANOTHER as his bovine palimpsest?

Who ya gonna call?

Du-du-du look out old Mackie is back.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:05 - ID#288295)

Thank you, sir! I kinda that. Let's let Bart or the forum at large make their choice of mottos. ( I would have said all this to you in Latin, about 33 years ago ) .... ( :^ ) )

bernatz du ventadorm
(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:07 - ID#182192)
Oh he's the greatest
And he is once again on the airwaves


Doggin you all

(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:18 - ID#210114)
Doing My Bit: A letter to the Australian Financial Review

Dear Editor,

Firstly I would like to point out a factual error. In your article "WMC cuts gold cover in $2bn deal" of 20 March, you reported that the RBA sold 280 tonnes of gold in 1997. The RBA in fact, sold 167 tonnes last year.

Secondly, many of your articles on gold in recent times have been bearish. While this is undrstandable considering the current price of gold ( at 18 year lows ) it does not reflect the total 'big picture' regarding the yellow metal.

While central banks have indeed been selling, their total sales relative to total holdings has been small. ( 400 tonnes net sales in 1997 compared to holdings of 32,000 tonnes ) .

There have been positive signs for the yellow metal. The Bank of France says that it will not sell any gold. The Bundesbank has also stated the same. Both Germany and France are pro-gold and will dominate the ECB. Thus there is a strong possibility that the ECB will hold substantial gold reserves. Russia has signalled its intention to build up its gold reserves by 100 tonnes a year and the recent sale by the Belgium Central Bank went to five other central banks.

Thus there is strong evidence to suggest that gold still has a role to play as a reserve asset in the world's financial system. Furthermore the value of gold as a reserve asset has been vindicated by recent events in Asia. When curerencies were crashing, the value of gold in those currencies skyrocketed. Korea and Thailand instituted gold collections from its citizens in order to help with their debt problems. As I have said, a perfect vindication of gold's traditional role as a reserve asset.

While I am not a 'goldbug' and I do NOT believe in returning to a gold standard I do believe that gold is worth holding as a reserve asset. I am astonished to hear people saying otherwise. I would like to suggest that you perhaps do a report or present an article on the positives of gold or perhaps a review of the 'the big picture' regarding the yellow metal.

Lurker 777
(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:22 - ID#317247)
Heees Baaack.
Its ALIVE and more powerful! Yes, its the Catman doooo all over you.

Bully Beef
(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:22 - ID#259282)
Dr. Livingston ,I presume?
This could be fun. Beam me up Scotty .There's no intelligent life here... Only goldbugs. GOOOOO! GOOOOOLD.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:22 - ID#287277)
Reading between lines, for truthful news....(or less lying news, or maybe it's news, or...)

( 1 ) Glitzy leg-up for Africa: The sheikhs guests included Bill Clintons chief advisers on Africa, financiers from five continents, top Arab bankers and Ugandas President Yoweri Museveni...all were delegates at the Addis Forum...The Addis Forum was conceived to highlight the economic reforms now sweeping parts of East Africa. But the strength of the Washington delegation MAY HAVE HAD SOMETHING TO DO WITH AMERICAS DETERMINATION TO CONTAIN THE ISLAMIST REGIME in the neighborouring Sudan.
[aside--US forgave $1.2 bn in debt recently !?? From WHERE does it all come?]
Economist column
( 2 ) "Charlemagne" on Turkey: When Europe to the west of the Bosporus insults Turkey, this ambivalence swells. Most Turks--count Mr. Yilmaz among them--think the West is cold-shouldering them because they are Muslims. And many, looking towards the Balkans, suspect that westerners, seemingly indifferent to the deaths of Kosovars and Bosnians, think Muslims expendable.

Worrisome? Yes.

Charles Keeling
(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:24 - ID#344225)
Very nice post!

Since I am inclined to believe what I want
to hear, I agree 100%.

Let us all hope that your read of ANOTHERS
post's is how it really plays out.

It is logical that a "new currency" evolved
from what originally was intended only to be
used for purchase of oil from the Arab States.

This "new currency" ( derivative ) was originally
100% backed by GOLD in the Vaults of the LBMA.
Who knows exactly what amount of gold remains
at the LBMA? Delivery has not been requested
by all who hold this "new currency".

Perhaps the LBMA is guilty of overbooking, i.e.
the printing of more of this new currency
than can be delivered if all holders go
physical. This has been going on for 15 years,
so I think that we can be sure that this is
indeed the case.

If the new Islamic coin is hugely successful
and the Arab countries call for physical, a
lot of other holders of these derivatives will
be out in the cold.


(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:28 - ID#57232)
Glad you're back again -- Must post briefly
Marcus: How about thinking about the following:
First, lets say that the LMBA is becoming the world's backup bank, with gold as the medium of exchange. Even with the massive daily volume of gold trading hands, from the LMBA's own data, this is still only a few percent of the daily US dollar volume. I submit that the growth of the LBMA volume is not a sign of trouble with gold per se, but with the world's financial markets. For that matter, the world's derivatives trading volume may be a symptom of trouble -- such as currency instability, rather than the actual cause of the trouble. I do agree with you that it is likely that the 'virtual' gold trading or whatever it is, cannot increase without limit -- simply because there is not enough physical gold to go around.
Secondly, what do you think of the idea that there is a 'two tier' price for gold -- one on the Comex, and one secret ( black market? ) one on the LBMA. If we are truly moving to a 'two tier' gold pricing system where the Belgian CB has to sell gold at say 310-320/oz rather than the spot price that is probably the end of the gold bear. Also, did you see the post that a Rothschild has said that gold ( Belgian? ) was to be sold at 'auction'. That again suggests a two tier system -- a public price, and a private price for the big players that know better what gold is worth.

The Hermit
(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:30 - ID#372248)
@ fundaMETAList & Allen(USA)
Your disscussions regarding Y2k are most interesting. I hope you do continue the discussion here. IMVHO, I do believe the discussion relates to the METALS as we just might be using our coins for exchange purposes soon. Who knows?

Thank you for the interesting posts.

The Hermit

(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:33 - ID#238422)
I would not agree with your logic that depressed
oil price means less gold for Arabs when you take
ANOTHER's story as a basis of your theory.

Another said that "they" value oil at XX amount of US$
( whatever! ) , but sell it for X amount of US$ ( who cares
how much ) , because they demand a specific, fixed amount
of gold to be added to the dollar part of the oil price.
If US$ price of oil drops, then it would be logically
correct to assume ( according to ANOTHER's theory ) , that
the gold part of oil price ( physical weight of this
gold payment ) should increase, to make them happy.

Increase, but not decrease. So, they are getting less
dollars, but more gold, right? Any objections?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:34 - ID#7568)

The presses are running full tilt. M3 continues to explode. Last week another 14 billion dollars created in the banking system. The four week total was north of 62 billion dollars for an annualized growth rate around 15%. Is it any wonder that the stock market continues higher?

in-fla-tion, n.
1. the act of inflating or the condition of being inflated.

2. an increase in the amount of currency in circulation, resulting in a relatively sharp and sudden fall in its value and rise in prices;

We certainly are getting the first part of 2. The resultant is on the way.

The Hermit
(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:37 - ID#372248)
@ Markus - your 17:49
A most interesting post! Thank you Sir.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:43 - ID#57232)
Addendum -- LBMA and a gold trading crisis.
Charles Keeling, Marcus: I am not that worried about the LBMA if their virtual gold trading blows up, because the LBMA is just a clearing house. The LBMA has been around for over 20 years, and has weathered problems like this before -- it will probably be up and running again within days -- with the same players, minus the blacklisted ones that played too much virtual gold.

What worries me is the implication to the world's 'fiat' currencies, and how this all plays out. My guess is that the price of gold will go up, until it overshoots, and reaches a new equilibrium price. My intuitive guess is that the failure of the LBMA gold trading will have little effect on the worlds's markets, given that the monetary trading volume is still infinitesimal compared to world dollar trading volume. But -- if the day ever comes that the LBMA funnels a major portion of the world's currency trade through gold, that would be a different matter altogether.

So -- I submit that the main effect of a LBMA crisis will be a rising price of gold. This has probably happened in that past -- when the gold selling 'cartel' failed in the 70's?

See you all later!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:44 - ID#227238)
To all things, there is a season ......
Allen @15:53: I'm not much on scripture and such but your offering was most appropriate. IMHO.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:44 - ID#251166)
@ ANYBODY  Re. Triple Witching Day tomorrow
What's that mean, Triple Witching Day?


(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:45 - ID#57232)
Sorry -- LBMA around over 200 years -- misstyped

(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:52 - ID#238422)
Last night John Disney and me had a little conversation
on this "mysterios" Belguim sale above spot price...
If you are interested, check it out. John, whom I respect
very much, said that I got it right, I also think that
I got it right. If you read these posts, tell me what
you think, please.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:56 - ID#26669)
D.A. question about the upcoming inflation (talking points only, no advice)
Given that gold is part of a balanced portfolio, which would also include various portions of equities, bonds, income producing equities, money market instruments, et cetera. What would you predict to be the most lucrative form of bond or bond fund for that portion over the next two years? And what would be the safest form for the next 15 years?

For a starting point I should mention that I watched the entire process of the Sunshine Mining Silver Convertable bonds from inception to dissolution and it was a very sad sight, so I think that the PM and bond portions must be entirely separate. For the second point, I believe that for my personal inflation risk is more than my personal deflation risk so I presently have 3/8 of my investments in PM related instruments and only 20% in debt and fixed income ( 15% in federal bonds and 5% in money market funds ) with the remainder in conservative stock funds.

Disclaimer: This portfolio is pertinant for me only. I think that anyone else would have to be insane to follow my lead in such things! Talk to your certified investment advisor before investing in anything!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:58 - ID#288295)
Charles Keeling @ Islamic Gold-backed currency/gold-for-oil
Apparently the possibilities from discussions here on the Islamic Dinar and ANOTHER's story have reached high places. See my 07:34 post this morning.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 18:59 - ID#28593)
Why the 'Liquidity Solution' may not work this time...

The concept of the Lender of Last Resort is deeply ingrained in the western financial consciousness: the belief that, if sufficient liquidity is supplied, not too much, too soon--nor too little, too late the systems systemic malfunctions will mend and allow the system to continue to function. This time, it may be different.

Reflection on the history of fiat currencies in the western industrialized world distills to a crystal truism: money ( i.e., fiat money specifically ) is BELIEF--and additionally-- it is the UNCONDITIONAL belief in strangers. One takes note of the fact that ( again in history ) this is an anomaly:

the languages of the world are rich with pejorative words that identify the stranger, e.g.,  barbarians, described by one etymologist as those who are not we. Strangers.

For the G7 worlds, the past fifty years have given citizenry no reason to question the efficacy of fiat currencies. The song playing was Gershwins, Summertime, and the living is easy; Summertime, and the living is good... That-- fifty years on-- the demographics have changed, that the fall of the wall, e.g., brought into the labor market hungry, educated competition, that summertime eventually must give way to autumn, the G7 nations behind closed doors decry and in front of the cameras deny.

Meanwhile, in the non- G7 world, governments who have taken more and given less while promising nothing--primarily because no promise would be believed-- are finding the citizenrys belief in the paper miracle a fragile balloon, beautiful, great fun, but prey to every vagrant current of capricious economic rumor-winds, to say nothing of monetary pinpricks.

There, belief in government is less vigorous; there commitment to the paper issued by governments less robust. It is there, in what the G7/financial world is pleased to call the emerging markets that the fiat currency Death Watch has been established; it is here that the belief-balloon upon which every fiat currency is predicated has been pricked.

The Western world believes that broken Belief in South East Asian currencies will in no way affect the emerging markets Belief in western fiat currencies. Western governments believe the efficacy of THEIR rule--and hence, their fiat currency, is obvious.

Does it remind you at all of the smiling negotiations between Herr Hitler and Stalin?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:09 - ID#26669)
Clone, how about this?
I have a simple idea. What would happen if people started tipping with silver or gold coins instead of on their credit cards or with paper money? A few VF or AU silver dollars here and there would create some real interest when word got out about them. Fractional ounce gold coins would only be for big occasions of course.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:11 - ID#28593)
Spock (Doing My Bit: A letter to the Australian Financial Review)
Great letter! You have the 'makings' to become a very
fine goldbug. {:- )

(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:14 - ID#293379)
jonesy( triple witch)
dj, The "triple witch" is the simultaneous expiration of stock and index options and options on index futures contracts occuring on a single day. It has often been a day of great volatility for the DOW. A little movement in one direction gets accelerated. But investors in today's markets are inclined to buy on dips and sell on highs, thereby muting the traditional wild ride. There is lots of cash out there... it is nearing the end of the quarter and many mutual fund managers who are driving the bull market still have 5 - 10% of their assets in cash will look for buying opportunities.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:22 - ID#269409)
Skip.....PLatinum Eagles are our friends
Skip, slight correction to your 17:19. Platinum is TWENTY times rarer than Gold. To re-quote for the nth time ( excuse the redundancy folks ) , "All the Platinum ever mined would fit in a square cube 25 ft. diamter"

I can just feel those $100 Plat. Eagles dripping with rarity! BTW, I have some PROOF PLatinum 1997's, ( Half Oz. ) with a mintage of only 18,000 that are quickly going up in value if anyone is int......Oops...sorry Bart!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:24 - ID#224151)
a turn on the soap box
The US $ is the paper king and paper is king. Until this confidence comes into question
the role of Gold will remain in the doldrums...despite its ancient credentials. Fiat
currencies..deficit financing....easy credit have led us astray from the disciplines and
truths asscoiated with real money. In its current paper form money is nothing more than
an accounting unit ....only representing things of Real ( intrinsic ) Value.When this begins
to dawn on the public consciousness Gold will begin to shine again. Meantime a
gullible?public remains fixated by the apparent prosperity the Paper Game is offering ,
oblivious it seems to the high cost ( interest ) and entranced by its fancy book-keeping
practises and intricate derivative products...not to mention questionable businesss
practices like mortgaging the house to buy Hot stocks....or prize- seeking credit card
purchases.The real mania today involves credit ( Funny Money ) .IMHO

(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:25 - ID#251166)
@ Michael
Thanks much. So we're looking for the last chorus of the Dow's swan song tomorrow . . .

(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:26 - ID#269409)
@ Shennanigans
Wednesday March 18, 6:30 pm Eastern Time

Crystallex claims to gold mine false - Venezuelan

By Angus MacSwan

MIAMI, March 18 ( Reuters ) - The head of Venezuela's Congressional Commission on Mining said on Wednesday that Vancouver-based
Crystallex International Corp.'s ( AMEX:KRY - news; KRY.TO - news ) claims to the disputed Las Cristinas gold mine deep in the
Venezuelan jungle were false.

Both Crystallex and Toronto-based Placer Dome Inc. ( NYSE:PDG - news; PDG.TO - news ) have claimed title to the mine, which some
analysts said could be one of Latin America's richest gold mines.

Last year, Crystallex filed an appeal of Placer's rights in the Venezuela Supreme Court, touching off speculation that Placer could lose
its rights to the concession.

``We want to tell you that, despite numerous published claims in the Canadian press made by Crystallex International Corp. and its
promoters that a pending court challenge in Venezuela could give it the rights to gold concessions on these parcels, the claims are not
true,'' Rafael Rodriguez Acosta told a news conference.

``That is all. Plain and simple. Crystallex does not have the rights it is claiming and which it is telling its investors it has,'' Acosta said.

Trading in Crystallex on the Toronto Stock Exchange was halted on Wednesday morning, with the share price having tumbled down
2.65 to 4.50 a share in heavy trading on news of Acosta's comments. Last month, the share price had reached C$11.85.

Acosta also said the Venezuelan government had asked the country's supreme court to render a speedy decision on the pending court
case and added that it was unlikely that Crystallex would win its appeal.

``We must reassure all potential investors in Venezuela that the rule of law prevails in Venezuela and that claims like those made by
Crystallex cannot and will not be tolerated,'' Acosta said.

He accused the company of ``judicial privateering'' in an effort to stall development of the Las Cristinas 4 or 6 by what he called the
rightful party, Minera Las Cristinas C.A. ( MINCA ) , a joint venture between Placer Dome and the state-owned Corporacion Venezolana
de Guayana.

There was no reason to believe the Supreme Court would reverse an earlier decision that Crystallex had no right to sue over gold
rights, he said.

``But if it is reversed, Crystallex would merely have the ability to file a lawsuit. It would not receive any rights.''

The congressman, who is from the state of Bolivar, said Crystallex also had no rights to four other parcels it was claiming -- Santa
Elena 7 and 8, San Miguel 8 and Carabobo.

He had written to the Ontario Securities Commission advising it of the commission's findings on Crystallex's claims, he added.

Acosta was speaking at a Miami Beach hotel where a conference on mining entitled ``Investing in the Americas'' was being held. The
Crystallex booth showed maps of its interests including Las Cristinas, but company representatives were not on hand when a Reuters
reporter visited.

An estimated 11.8 million ounces of gold are estimated to be buried in the mine. Placer, which has already spent $110 million
developing the site, said in January it had put the project on hold until the Supreme Court made its decision.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:30 - ID#26669)
LGB, my heart goes with you but my head is staying home!
I too have thought a lot about buying more SSC at the $1 to $1.125 range, but I've seen several times where it reacts sluggishly a day or two later to news. Such news might well be the fall of silver below $6.00 IMHO.

Their volume has gone up to over 900,000 which bothers me. So after pondering it I've decided that for me $.875 is a good buy price and $.625 would be a fantastic buy price. I've been sitting on the fence now about buying more for the whole new year, but am drawing interest on the money I haven't spent. :^ ) IMHO

(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:30 - ID#285392)
Lurker 777 Suggest you put that question to APH
APH has been making fantastic calls all along, you may want to use his expertise on your calls he is very obliging in sharing information.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:32 - ID#288295)
223 @ BONDS
Some things to consider about bonds..... ( 1 ) whether their will be inflation ( bad for bonds ) , dis-inflation ( good for bonds ) , or serious deflation ( bad for low quality bonds, good ( maybe ) for high quality bonds..... ( 2 ) The present credit-worthiness of the borrower ( you are the lender ) .... ( 3 ) the economic impact of the forecast condition ( inflation/deflation ) on the ability of the borrower to pay the bond coupon.... ( 4 ) whether the bond is callable.The large present debt overhang of the U.S. and the fact that foreigners own a substantial fraction of current U.S. debt ( which they may sell ) complicates the issue of bonds considerably, as private bond rates tend to follow Fed rates. If those bonds are sold in the auction market, rates will rise, perhaps dramatically. If the bonds are sold to the Fed and the debt monetized, rates will eventually rise due to inflation pressures. In either case, bonds would lose value and you would lose money, unless you can buy individual bonds and hold them to maturity. There is also the large question of how the U.S. will continue to finance its large ( mostly short-term ) debt, especially if the tax base erodes in a deflationary scenario. Will they convert all the short-term debt ( 85% ) to long-term bonds? Zero-coupon bonds? Many questions, few answers, unfortunately, about bonds, depending on the inflation/deflation outcome.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:32 - ID#269409)
@ The Crystallix scam just posted
Didn't ANOTHER say something about interests in Venezuela?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:34 - ID#269409)
@ 223...... SSC
What!!! You, the great believer in SSC are going to hang back just when it's getting to be a juicy "buy" opportunity??? OK, well I didn't get my order filled at 1.00 today, but still trying. I agree that anything below .7 would be fantastic, but I just don't see it happening. I'll settle for 1.00 and if we go down to .80 I'll buy some more.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:36 - ID#286230)
Royal Oak has troubles too.

bernatz du ventadorm
(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:40 - ID#182192)
HoppinJohn, hot in the skillet with some flannel cakes to match

Well, how is everyone faring in the aurophile age?
Is that dorkfus still posting here, two years after
telling us everythin gonna be alright with gold at
$380? $380? Man, what a memory that was. That was
two years ago, when I was telling everyone that
gold was going to $280. What a fantastic call!!!!!!

I am awesome to da max, dudes. And I am back to
steer you all right. My writings will be published
in many major magazines, so watch for me.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:46 - ID#269409)
@ ANOTHER...Oil and MB's
Hmmm, maybe there's more to the story than I've been able to fathom. New analysis out of the EU followers, re Middle East oil, the upcoming Euro, the Belgian connection ( headquarters of the EU ) , and the German DM currency, indicates that flows of ME oil have been intentionally increased as of late to prop the MB factor.

MB factor is of course, "Mercedes Benz" factor, Namely, the exchange of oil by ME magnates for Mercedes Benz's as a form of like exchange currency. A careful analysis reveals that you'll never see MB's and oil flowing in the same direction. Also, MB's are considered by the major oil shieks as being more liquid form of true wealth than dollars and other "paper" vehicles.

Look for the German Bundesbank, to make a play for superiority in the EU influence deals currently taking place, re required CB reserves, by exploiting their "MB" for middle East oil factor.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:48 - ID#347447)
LGB, baby
How does one get a "square cube 25 ft in diameter?"

(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:51 - ID#348129)
@Massive increases in AU volume and open interest: BUT NO PRICE RISE? M2 money supply soaring.
It is inexplicable that the AU price is not rising????

Steve Kaplan: COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities were moderately lower on Thursday, while precious metals ended narrowly mixed. Gold gained fifty cents; silver dropped 3.8 cents after having been down a very sharp 36.8 cents in the early morning while touching its lowest level since January 13, 1998; platinum rose forty cents; and palladium fell fifty cents. COMEX gold interest continued to climb sharply, up 4,560 contracts after the previous day's unusually large gain of 9,630 contracts, demonstrating that commercials are anticipating a significant increase in price. Open interest has risen from 157,946 lots on January 30 to the current level of 204,818 lots. Silver, meanwhile, is looking stronger technically after rebounding from sharp early losses on two consecutive trading days.

Having turned more bullish on the price of gold, Australia's Western Mining Co., Ltd., substantially reduced its hedging position by closing out previously contracted forward sales for a profit of A$310.8 million. This continues the trend of producer buy-backs which began in December 1997.

On the New York Stock Exchange there were 285 new highs and 13 new lows, with 1640 stocks advancing and 1268 stocks declining. The index put-call ratio was a modestly optimistic 1.14, while the equity put-call ratio was a modestly pessimistic 0.45.

The volatility index, a measure of implied volatilities for U.S. stock index options which demonstrates complacency vs. fear in the market, closed down 0.29 at 18.28 after hitting an intraday bottom of 17.92, its lowest level since November 26, 1996. This indicates an unusually high level of investor complacency about the potential for a drop in the stock market.

Thursday's COMEX gold estimated volume was a heavy 68,000 lots. Total COMEX gold open interest on Wednesday rose a sharp 4,560 to 204,818 lots, intensifying the recent trend toward commercials' increasing their accumulation on moderate dips in the gold price. Silver open interest fell 2,913 to 88,058 contracts. The implied gold lease rate is about 1.8% for one month and 1.9% for one year. COMEX gold warehouse stocks were unchanged at 567,574 ounces, while COMEX silver warehouse stocks fell by 214,250 to 90,096,326 ounces. The Johannesburg gold index closed Thursday morning at 686.3, up 13.7, with the U.S. dollar quoted at 4.9755 rand.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:53 - ID#348129)
@Mike Sheller
Easy, you put the square peg in the round hole.........

Mike Sheller
(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:53 - ID#347447)
This one's for YOU, LGB. Get it on with SSC! Jupiter conuncts its Sun at 22 Pisces ( Scientific fact!!! ) in Mid May. Either the company goes out of business, or the stock jumps. I've still got my position under a buck and am holdin' for the JUMP! Mark your calenar. If this one's a dud, I buy you dinner, pal. If there's action Mid May, you buy mine! Ok?

Mike Sheller
(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:55 - ID#347447)
I meant to say "Jupiter conjuncts" ( really I did ) not "conuncts"

Mike Sheller
(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:56 - ID#347447)
Square pegs R' Us

(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:57 - ID#269409)
@ Mike SHeller
OK Mike, they aren't goin out of business so that only leaves a big rise eh? But don't expect me to start believing in Astrology if it comes to pass dammit!

Mike Sheller
(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:59 - ID#347447)
It is a known fact...
that all the Platinum ever mined is in RJ's clients long positions.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 19:59 - ID#347123)
oris, JTF, Keeling...ANOTHER
JTF, oris, Keeling...Thank you for your comments. In all humility I value your comments and input, knowing that the more I study the less it appears I know ( sometimes you have to feel for Einstein ) .

oris: your logic is undoubtedly correct that the gold part of the official oil price may be increasing while the Arabs are getting fewer US dollars. I must admit this issue is more complicated than Pandora's box!

JTF: I have thought about the possibility of a two-tier gold pricing system or black market gold market as well, and tend to concur. Even if that is the case and even if ANOTHER is right that gold did trade for $320/oz on the Belgian transaction ( read: AUCTION ) ...with N.M. Rothschild's hands in it, it hasn't made resulted in an gains in my personal porfolio.

I suppose this is the state of our world today where illusion is pile upon illusion and we are blinded by the sight!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 20:00 - ID#288369)
@SDRer.......Pricking the Belief Balloon...swoooosh!!!
A Great're 18:59. Thanks.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Mar 19 1998 20:01 - ID#347447)
I aint askin' you to believe in astrology! I figure if it goes bust, or it takes off, we both have a reason to break commisseration with each other, or celebration with each other ( ;- )

(Thu Mar 19 1998 20:02 - ID#57232)
Two tier price for Oil too? If so, bullish for Oil
oris: I did not find your posts with John Disney yesterday on a quick scan -- must have been in the morning. But I do have one thing that I think is relevant to some points you made today.

Several times in the past a two tier system has been used when a currency was inflating, and the problem was not accepted by the 'powers that be'. This most memorable one was the period just before Nixon closed the gold window in 1972 ( ? ) . Another was the one used in South Africa until recently. Now, after yesterday, we suspect that there now a 2 tier gold price as well.

The punch line is this -- why not for oil too? Perhaps ANOTHER was right after all about the concept, but not the premium placed on oil. I must admit I thought ANOTHER's comments about the 'real' secret price for Oil were totally unrealistic, so I discounted his concept.

The story goes like this -- a currency ( the dollar ) is weakening, but the central banks that control the printing of dollars -- the FED,the BIS, and the Europeans ( EURO ) indirectly --- decide that they want to maintain the value of the dollar -- 'at any cost'. But the big players, the buyers and sellers of gold or oil say: 'Now wait a minute -- all of these studies indicate that gold ( oil ) is worth alot more. We realize that the spot price of gold ( oil ) is xxx right now, but since we know it will be going up this or next year, and you do too, we won't trade unless you give us a premium over the price that gold ( oil ) is on the open market.'

The point is that the 'big players' ( big trader?, ANOTHER ) can refuse to play by the CB rules, expecially if all the trading is done in secret at the LBMA where only the big players know what is going on. Presto -- two tier pricing system -- one for the big guys ( LBMA, BIS ) , and one for the little guys ( COMEX ) . But -- finally the system breaks down, just like that gold cartel did in the 70's. Both the price of oil and the price of gold went up soon after.

Interestingly, ANOTHER warned us about the time that gold/oil and the US dollar would go up together -- I'm not sure what he was referring to, except that a 'flight to safety' in the US markets with US market inflation fueled by AG's monetary expansion could parallel a rise in the price of gold. That may be exactly what is happening right now. Of course, a situation like this is unsustainable, once investors realize the craziness of inflating the stock markets with all of the dollars that can't seem to find a home anywhere else. All of those dollars that AG wants to use to reflate the worlds currencies seem to be coming home to roost.

Food for thought -- but disturbing.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 20:08 - ID#348129)
@Friday - Hmmmmm
Triple witching + M2 money supply soaring + Strange increased volumes
in Comex AU + Rumblings out of Europe re Gold in the ECB + US Equities at all time Highs ( with many dissapointing earnings warnings )
= Very Interesting Day Tomorrow............

(Thu Mar 19 1998 20:10 - ID#318172)
Looking for Kaplan tonight.... anyone with a current URL?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 20:13 - ID#57232)
LGB's worst nightmare
Mike Sheller: I think LGB's worst nightmare would be to be locked up in a room where all the trading information he got was from you -- he couldn't use any of his preferred sources of information!

LGB: I do not understand much of what Mike Sheller says, but I know Astrology does work, and that Mike S understands something I don't!

There are alot of skeptical investors like you out there, but J Paul Getty was not one of them. And -- one of the wealthiest Chinese in Hong Kong also has an astrologer.

I think J Paul Getty said that 'A smart investor can make millions, but an smart investor who uses a ( good ) astrologer makes billions'.

And -- I'm sure J Paul Getty was smart enough to use all of his convential methods as well -- the astrology part allowed him to choose the better of two choices -- so nothing lost. You can bet your bottom dollar that JP Getty checked out his astologer's track record, too!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 20:13 - ID#348129)

Mike Sheller
(Thu Mar 19 1998 20:18 - ID#347447)
Thanks for the belly laugh ( LBG's only info is my stuff!! That's FUNNY! Talk about "No EXIT" )
But it was actually J. Pierpont Morgan, who used astrologers ( I believe Evangeline Adams was his No. 1 - someone correct me if I'm wrong ) , who actually said, and I quote : "Millionaires don't hire astrologers. Billionaires hire astrologers." Not a bad trader and investor, old J. P.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Mar 19 1998 20:20 - ID#347447)
BTW - I don't understand half of what YOU're talkiin' about either. ( ;- )

(Thu Mar 19 1998 20:21 - ID#255217)
@ Mike Sheller
LOVE your post of 19.59!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 20:27 - ID#57232)
Mike: My mistake -- I had the JP right, anyway! Anything about gold, now that we are apparently at a major turning point? This gold bottom could go for months -- or weeks.

By the way, I think the gold equity bottom was not far from that March Solar eclipse, which also turned out to be within one month or less of an 18.7 year tidal activity maximum. I back scanned tidal activity minima and maxima for 100 years, and discovered that they tend to be long term equity market turning points. That's my 'poor man's astrology' -- only moon-sun-earth -- something simple enough for a physicist.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Mar 19 1998 20:29 - ID#347447)
Talking about Chinese Investors using astrologers, the first writeup I ever got in a public journal was in Beijing, in the Sino-Foreign Joint Ventures business journal, a very respected and avidly read business publication in PRC China. This was an article on my work with Pluto conjunctions in corporate horoscopes. I had brought in a 50% capital gain on a portfolio of 13 stocks in 6 months. The DOW only rose 7% in the same time window. The article was sponsored by the Nanjing University School of Economics. It was an honor to be the first American "financial astrologer" to become recognized in the People's Republic. But then, the East has a different esoteric tradition than the West.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 20:33 - ID#316238)
To MoReGoLd re: Kaplan
Thanks for the referral!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 20:35 - ID#57232)
Logging off!
My real boss wants to know why I am still at work -- better go home!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 20:37 - ID#330175)
Welcome back--------------
Cat-man-DO~~~~~and Earl!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 20:39 - ID#253246)
(Any thoughts on joint venture partner for CAU)
In the February issue of The Gold Stock Analystit its reported that
Canyon Resources is talking with 4 possible partners and hopes for
a JV by the end of 1Q98. States a JV will "pop" stock into $2's with
gold around $300. GSA shows that if CAU only gets only 49% of the
reserves of the McDonald project their total p & p reserves would be 4.33
million oz.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 20:41 - ID#255190)
chas, what's a "blivit" and why does it explode???
Hello HepCat, dude! How are we going to know the articles are by you? Next prediction? Last I recall you thought gold was bottomed and was going higher. We are higher but not by much. What's yer take, maestro?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 20:45 - ID#411112)
Let me give Bart a plug,I said on my national radio program this morning that
Kitco,this page is truly something special,reason like most things I don't think anybody at Kitco expected the kind of responce they would get,but yet here you have a forum were previous bitter political opposites come together and from time to time agree on somethings, I personally lurked on this page for a few years before I stepped up to the plate,the information I have got,the friends I have meet,and just the shear joy and yes entertainment I have got from this page, is hard to put a Dollar figure on which is why ( here comes the Pitch ) i think you should buy a Mountie ,what's the risk if we all feel gold is going to rise ( please God ) this is a no brainer,the worst thing that could happen you could lose the price of a decent steak,I think my daily fun with you guys is worth more than a decnt steak

(Thu Mar 19 1998 20:52 - ID#342282)
Allen re blivit
Hey, Allen. a blivit is 20# of sh!t in a 10# bag. They explode mostly because of heat. The post was a euphemism on facts and humor.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 21:03 - ID#195112)
Mike Sheller SSC
Well, I for one hope SSC's action in May is not "going out of business" because I couldn't resist biting off a chunk at $1 today.

What do you think of R. Nolan

(Thu Mar 19 1998 21:06 - ID#227290)
Bufford & CAU
The company's not saying who the possible suitors are. Owning the stock puts you in a pretty wild situation right now. The company owns this huge mine that has cleared several of the regulatory hurdles to getting permitted. But, there's no way the company can develop this mine without help from someone with deep pockets. So the stock has drifted lower and lower, with today's exception.

John Doody covers this stock like the dew; it is one of his favorites. And I agree with him; once the market gets the idea that the Seven-Up Pete project will get permitted and be mined, the shares will soar.

But like you, I have no idea who the four possible jv partners are.

The Preacher

(Thu Mar 19 1998 21:06 - ID#227290)
Bufford & CAU
The company's not saying who the possible suitors are. Owning the stock puts you in a pretty wild situation right now. The company owns this huge mine that has cleared several of the regulatory hurdles to getting permitted. But, there's no way the company can develop this mine without help from someone with deep pockets. So the stock has drifted lower and lower, with today's exception.

John Doody covers this stock like the dew; it is one of his favorites. And I agree with him; once the market gets the idea that the Seven-Up Pete project will get permitted and be mined, the shares will soar.

But like you, I have no idea who the four possible jv partners are.

The Preacher

(Thu Mar 19 1998 21:06 - ID#227290)
Bufford & CAU
The company's not saying who the possible suitors are. Owning the stock puts you in a pretty wild situation right now. The company owns this huge mine that has cleared several of the regulatory hurdles to getting permitted. But, there's no way the company can develop this mine without help from someone with deep pockets. So the stock has drifted lower and lower, with today's exception.

John Doody covers this stock like the dew; it is one of his favorites. And I agree with him; once the market gets the idea that the Seven-Up Pete project will get permitted and be mined, the shares will soar.

But like you, I have no idea who the four possible jv partners are.

The Preacher

(Thu Mar 19 1998 21:08 - ID#227290)
Sorry about the triple posts, guys and gals. I have a new browser and things are not going very smoothly.

The Preacher

(Thu Mar 19 1998 21:13 - ID#25588)
Trade Updates
If you're following these trades you're long May Silver from 5.60 with a 30 cent profit ( 3/17 9:20 & 22:01 ) , we now need a close above 6.00 to reinforce the possibility that the low is in, we're not out of the woods yet. The April Gold did not reach the buy point. I still think it will. Buy April Gold at 285 or better, this one needs a close above 302 to change the trend. These markets are still in down trends despite today's move. They need to close above their trend lines. If you're short the June SnP from 1099 wait until 30 minutes after the opening, place a stop above the days highs or 5 points above your entry price if that number is lower. The SnP is breaking out above it's wedge which is to be expected, it should turn tomorrow and drop like a rock for a couple days before reversing back up to make new highs.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 21:18 - ID#26669)
Silverbaron re bonds, defaults, etcetera
Thanks for your discussion. I wonder sometimes if the Kitcoites who keep mentioning a paper dollar recall might be on to something. That way there could be a de facto default but not one de jure. Considering that bank notes are zero interest bearing debt instruments.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 21:31 - ID#401460)

Re: Venezuelan ( sp ) Oil production and sales, Last year it was reported that they traded a bunch of Oil for Bonds or Gold for Bonds - or something like that.. It may be worthwhile researching. I will look and see if I have a copy of the report.


(Thu Mar 19 1998 21:33 - ID#26669)
C'mon, Mr. Bug! :^ ) Its a STOCK! just like Coca Cola or The Gap. 'Sides, my handle is no longer valid any more. Their market cap is more like 250,000,000 rather than the 223,000,000 last year. I thought about changing my handle even to 250 even, but it just doesn't have the same pun value.

And although SSC at 80 cents maybe would be a good buy I remember when $7.50 was thought to be a good buy too. What if you buy at 80 cents and they go through the reverse 8 to one split then it falls from $6.40 back to a dollar? I hate to see people win a dime on it for one buy then lose a quarter the next. I'll admit its one of my favorites ( and I'm holding on fundamental value and will buy more at 7/8 if I'm lucky ) , but its kind of like a pair of old socks that a person just can't bring himself to throw out. I'll disregard the fact that I've made some money on it. I made money on GE ( yawn ) , too, with a lot less risk. IMHO

(Thu Mar 19 1998 21:37 - ID#210235)
I've been through one of those "reverse splits". Stings!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 21:38 - ID#255151)
Blivit-BIG BANG!

chas--The things ya learn at Kitco! Got a hearty chuckle out of that. Robnoel_A--Gonna take your suggestion and get one of them unround Mounties. How's the Webtv?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 21:41 - ID#316200)
Re Silverbaron bonds, defaults, etc.
223, I am also interested in the paper dollar recall.
As you know, the introduction of new bank notes in the US
constituted a benign switch. It is my understanding, however,
that the bank notes are interest bearing instruments. How they
create and support interest amounts is beyond me.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 21:48 - ID#26669)
Interesting web-page...goodnight all

(Thu Mar 19 1998 21:50 - ID#401460)

Well here is the warning or threat, however you want to take it.

Deutsche's Walter sees ECB rate hike in H2 1999
BRUSSELS, March 19 ( Reuters ) - Deutsche Bank ( DBKG.F ) chief economist Norbert Walter......

``I believe the markets will be surprised by price developments ( in the U.S. ) ,'' Walter told an audience of Belgian financiers..........................

``I do not expect currencies that go into the euro this year to be strong against the dollar. I do not expect the euro at its start next year to be strong. I do expect it to become strong until the first time the European Central Bank raises interest rates,'' Walter said.

Walter said he expected this to happen for the first time in the second half of 1999 and its impact on the dollar would be compounded by the U.S. current account deficit passing the $200 billion barrier for the first time.


(Thu Mar 19 1998 21:50 - ID#210235)
Prometheus (@223) ID#210235:
Sometimes currencies have several reverse splits, too.
Fortunately, sometimes people are warned by a one-for-one first.

Lurker 777
(Thu Mar 19 1998 22:02 - ID#317247)
My last two trades playing OEX Put options have paid off and I would like your opinion on my latest trade. This is gambling money and I am playing with the houses money so please don't worry about your advice given. THANK YOU!
Bought some March OEX 525 Puts at the close for 6 and Stops at 4 1/4. The OEX was is at 519.71. Should I cancel my stop and place it after 30 min of trading? What Price?

ALSO, I have a futures account and I need advice. I want to :

Sell 3 Dec. 99 270 option puts/ Bid $340 Ask $440 ( $1320 )
Sell 3 Dec. 99 280 option puts/ Bid $550 Ask $650 ( $1950 )
Buy 4 Dec. 99 290 option puts/ Bid $820 Ask $920 ( $3680 )

If I use the Ask prices for the trade I will owe $410 difference. I don't want to pay more than $500. plus the 3- 270 & 3- 280 Puts for the 4- 290 Puts.
How do I tell the broker to do this trade?
Is this a two legged Option Spread with a $500 cap?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 22:03 - ID#368244)
Dollar Conversion @ Laslo T

New dollars for old dollars, get um exchanged at your local bank, then watch the rush to buy precious anything. Trouble is, that door will be closed also.

I posted on this the other day, GOSH, thought I was paranoid.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 22:09 - ID#316200)
HighRise: EMU
I suppose Deutsche Bank Chief Economist is also telling us
The ECU will not be 100% backed by gold. He was on C-SPAN
TV the other day, and he makes some sense to me. Some German
economists can be really hard on US$ prospects, almost to the
point where I would expect them to be posting on Kitco. They
are usually very sensible.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 22:16 - ID#411112)
Auric,just waiting on the new improved Webtv,heard they just launched them in the UK
way to go on the Mountie,they come in nice a package,credit card size, the coin is in soft plastic,could be a strong collector piece someday..

(Thu Mar 19 1998 22:24 - ID#255190)
Quick one and I'm off.
RE: Belian gold sale. Average 37.45 Belian Francs to the US$ from Jan 1 to Present. Gold sale price was $305.50/ troy oz. During the period average spot price was $293/troy oz.

Spot gold shot up to $313/oz at the end of January in Francs converted to US$. very short lived phenom. I think our markets saw 303 or there abouts. If the Belgians sold over a period of time for the past quarter or so then they did pretty well. Very close to 4.25% premium over spot.

I find that number interesting because it seems like a financial number: four and a quarter percent.

That's what I know.

chas will catch your comment tomorrow. No time now.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 22:33 - ID#411149)
..... All youse guys .....

Mike Sheller -

Don't forget the several storage locations brimming with Russian platinum bars all bearing the likeness of the Czar. Rocco has made the rounds and quietly filtered some into the Japanese market to ease market tensions and to pay off his rather substantial Geisha bill. Have heard nothing further about Fireplug and his micturating cohort. Probably rotting in some Gulag.

Regarding the diameter of a square cube: Your thinking is too Euclidean here, Mikey. Think space-time. Think of the universe folded back upon itself, finite but without boundary. Think Einstein here, fella'. I believe there are truths to be found in the diameter of a square cube. If you really have some time on your hands, check out the square root of pi, which is a fanciful journey and end unto itself. Several trillion places to the right of the decimal will be found the answer to all your questions. The trick is to figure out which question fits which answer.


Your factor of 20 of the rarity of platinum to gold is correct - for the stuff in the ground. Aboveground: the factor is several million times less platinum exists than gold. Pretty rare stuff. One can gesture in any direction and will be pointing at a whole lot-o-gold. We have only two directions to point for PGMs. SA seems disturbingly quiet. There is a lack of upheaval and bloodshed one would expect when an oppressed people suddenly find themselves holding the reigns of power. PGM production has managed to continue despite labor unrest. We will have to conclude that, barring societal upheaval in SA, PGM production will continue as before.

Russia is therefore the key. As virtually all of SA PGM production is under long term supply contracts, Russia is the wild card. They have to be careful here. They are very close to upsetting the apple cart. If palladium stays at these levels, industry will substitute other metals. The lid on palladium should be just shy of $300 - and then only in a squeeze. Platinum likes trading above $500. Spent a lot of time there in the late Eighties. I think it will go back to its traditional trading range ( post catalytic converter ) of $450 - $600. I'm holding my platinum, my clients are holding theirs, and I know you are holding yours - platinum that is. Platinum is a better buy and hold investment than gold in every scenario that does not include the apocalypse. Thanks for the attaboy, believe it or not, its nice to hear sometimes.

Hep -

Divine? Nay! Perhaps just Cardinal Prophetess.


Congrats on your 5.60 silver. Sweet day trade.


Nay ANOTHER envy. It just seems sometime that many here are so wrapped up in next year and next decade, that they simply miss out on what is making money today. Regarding gold: The Belgium sale was a non-event. Further sales have been expected for quite some time with Belgium among the usual suspects. Will this trigger another round of CB sales? I think not. The pressures to sell are quite different this year than last, and not nearly as severe. I am hold some gold shorts as hedges, but would gladly loose on those trades, because the long silver and platinum will outrun gold five to one in the current environment. Thanks for the kind words.

All -

Tomorrow silver will act much the same as today. Volatility, tempers, and blood pressures will be high. They'll run it down on the open. I'd still like to see 5.50 but 5.60 would be fine. When the funds step in, we could actually close in the black. That was one hell of a bounce today. I still don't know how much was short covering and how much was new longs. I suspect, like DA has reported about in reverse, that they are rolling right out of the shorts directly into longs.

PS Mike Sheller -

I am recalled of your description of my "short trades and short fiction". It occurred to me that it is important to understand which is which.

John B__A
(Thu Mar 19 1998 22:43 - ID#211105)
Re your comments on platinum - did you mean that platinum to gold in the ground is in the ratio of 20 to 1 or the other way around? Are there common stock plays on platinum? Would ASA be one of them? Appreciate your input.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 22:43 - ID#287277)
a little [if you're not Japanese--& you don't own the stock] derivatives problem...
Yakult execs to step down over losses
Asahi Shimbun, Friday Mar 20 1998

Yakult Honsha Co., a leading beverage company, said today that its
chairman and vice president will resign to take responsibility for massive investment losses the company incurred through DERIVATIVES

(Thu Mar 19 1998 22:44 - ID#57232)
EMU (EURO) and the US dollar -- logging off to be with spouse.
Lazlo T, Highrise: Appreciate the posts about Germany and EMU. So -- we hear that the EMU interest rates are not to be raised in the first year of launching. I read that as: 'Even the Germans know Europe is hurting and they cannot contract their money supply to make the EURO stronger'. Since the EURO is a composite of several currencies -- it must be weaker than its strongest component -- the Deutsche Mark -- at least initially. I think this is why AG cannot raise rates when he needs to -- he must inflate the US dollar relative to the european currencies, as well as SEAsia.

I think the most likely thing that will happen is that during the first year of the EURO launch the EURO will remain weak, but the US dollar will be pushed down relative to other currencies. It will not be until the european economies revive that european interest rates will be raised in earnest. The only wild card in this is gold -- the europeans could boost the EURO with large purchases of gold -- which they probably need to do now if they want cheap gold. My intuitive guess is that they do not have the reserves to do so with their weak economies, unless they sell dollars and buy gold. But I don't know if they have enough dollars to do this.

Interesting questions -- the only clear answer is that the dollar is going to go down, and the AG will not raise rates until it does, as he does not dare boost the dollar any more by raising rates now.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Mar 19 1998 22:46 - ID#347447)
Everyone knows pi r round. Cornbread r square!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 22:48 - ID#401460)
IMF's Camdessus

IMF head says Indonesia shelves currency plan-pape

Camdessus also said that economies in South Korea and Thailand were strong and unlikely to be affected by events
in Indonesia.

`` ( South ) Korea and Thailand are strong now, and I don't believe that they would be dramatically affected by
difficulties in Indonesia,'' he said.


(Thu Mar 19 1998 22:48 - ID#222448)
(the golden RCMP)
robnoel__A ID#411112: ( 22:16 )
way to go on the Mountie,they come in nice a package,credit card size, the coin is in soft plastic,could be a strong collector piece someday..

I don't think the Mountie coin is a good "investment". As a conversation piece, however, it is OK. The price guarentee is just a ploy to squeeze an extra premium out of the consumer. The are being sold at a market value of $350 US. A tidy profit for the Royal Cdn Mint - and it just may help with our national debt. Provided the gov. does not squander it.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Mar 19 1998 22:50 - ID#347447)
I am really not familiar with Rebecca Nolan's work, so I can't comment. I did receive a direct mail piece for her newsletter once, and it really didn't interest me much. Nick Guarino does a better sales pitch ( tho he's not an astrologer by any means ) , but he has been spectacularly wrong the past two years. Are you familiar with her work? Is she good?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 22:51 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Hate it when I have to be away! Fortunatly had a nice but only small buy order in on the silver from last night. 5.62 or lower. Seem to have caught it appropriately. Must have faith in the chart lines. APH is correct with the assessment that silver MUST gain 6.00 Plus in order to have 'turned' the corner. Else, 5.40 WILL be in the cards! But even given that, seeing 5.70 or so again is also a distinct possibility with just a normal 'correction'. Be aware.
Still expecting a wee bit more soutward movement in the gold. Where's that damn spike! Maybe it'll come with a 'normal correction' in silver.

I am now watching the grains again for a turn. I'm not expecting too much more southward movement, at this time anyway. Only a few small cents left on the corn and wheat that I can see. Tomorrow? I'll have a couple buy orders in should they 'deign' to cooperate.

June S&P will probably attack 1150 before much of a fall becomes much of a serious possibility. Probably near a couple weeks off yet. For those who trade, dollars to be made in both directions between now and then. A 'rest and corrective' day or two 'should' be just ahead. I can't see it being particularly severe though. We are out of that mode until THE turn!

So, what else is happenin' here at this time? Haven't yet caught up on it all.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 22:53 - ID#57232)
pi --- G'Nite all!
Mike Sheller: No -- pi are 3.14159 ... ( couldn't resist )

(Thu Mar 19 1998 22:56 - ID#411149)
..... Heeeee Heeeeeeeeeeee .....

MS -
Gotta' get me some of that cornbread.

John B-
The 20 to 1 figure is in regards to proven and probable reserves. Often takes more than 10 tons of ore to produce 1 oz platinum. SA mines tend to go way deep. Some extend five miles under ground and under ocean. Refrigeration is required in deep mines to offset heat generated by heavy equipment. Therefore SA PGMs are more expensive to produce than Russian PGMs - which are primarily byproducts of nickel production. The comparative rarity of above ground platinum to gold is astronomical. Gold is accumulated. Platinum is consumed. Consider that.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:02 - ID#347447)
SSC's recent spike attempted a test of the downtrend overhead resistance line in place since 1980. The price was flung back. The price pattern is not encouraging in itself, recently, but a close above $2 gives it room to run to next major resistance at $4. If $4 is breached, then we go to 7.50 before any kind of stress lines come into play. This would coincide with a possible $9.80 silver later this year. This stock is well worth a silver play for believers in las lagrimas de la luna.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:07 - ID#401460)
Rate increase maybe?

Thursday March 19, 9:35 pm Eastern Time

CORRECTED - U.S. labor market seen worrying Fed -- again

In WASHINGTON story headlined ``U.S. labor market seen worrying Fed -- again'' please read in 2nd paragraph ...
``looked for Asian financial woes to pre-empt the need for a monetary tightening that would calm the booming
economy...'' instead of ...``looked for Asian financial woes to lead U.S. policy makers to tighten monetary policy...''

My post from this morning.

I have been concerned for some time with the inability to put a tag on these markets, in particular; are we going to experience inflation or deflation and is the Asia problem going to affect us and if it does, how will it affect us?

Some numbers are coming in that start to clear the view of what is really happening.

CNBC has reported the following this morning:

1 ) PPI was up 3% which indicates inflation, remember Oil is at historically low price levels.

2 ) Imports are DOWN 1%, when everyone expected the US and the rest of the world to be flooded with imports. Large stores are short on Asian inventory

3 ) Nike and income warnings, why, they should have an advantage of cheap labor and their net should be increasing. May be that Asian instability is not only affecting Asian buying of products but also the production. Nike does not own those Asian sweat boxes. Even if an Asian company has a foreign contract they may not be financially functional.

4 ) Asian funds may be coming into the US markets, note that the DOW moves significantly positive at the end of the day; further draining Asian capital resources.

5 ) Preliminary conclusion is that Asia has a liquidity crises and that Asian industry can not get enough funds to produce.

6 ) US exports to Asian are not that significant, therefore may not be a factor.

Therefore, this would explain the confusion in the bond market and among the rest of us as to what is going on? We may have a perfect scenario for Gold. Cheap imports from Asia have been slowed.

Once Oil stabilizes look out.

The Fed will have to raise rates now.


(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:09 - ID#411112)
Prospector,so you having crapie day then,lighten up a bit

I did not use the word investment,if think gold is a investment you will be mistaken,never has been never will be,I did say a collectors piece besides it's a better product than that over priced Pinko Panda stuff

(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:10 - ID#339212)
@ Mike Sheller

Mike, any idea what the 1998 average silver price should be for SSC to break even? A week ago someone posted $8 Ag, but this seems kind of high.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:12 - ID#287277)
Mike Sheller--your tact and talent make you the logical choice to explain to the Japanese that

JapanTimes Mar 20 1998
February trade surplus up 89% as exports log 11th straight rise
they are NOT supposed to MAKE money on their EXPORTS! My goodness, one
would think they could just look at us and 'get the messge'. I'm sure you'll be able to diplomatically bring them to reason [Western reason].
Thank you. {:- )

"The nation's customs-cleared trade surplus for the month of February grew 88.7 percent from the same month of last year, reaching 1.28 trillion yen, provisional figures released March 19 showed.

It was the 11th straight month in which the figure recorded a year-on-year increase, according to the Finance Ministry, and the largest monthly figure recorded since March 1995, when the surplus hit
1.29 trillion yen."

John B__A
(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:14 - ID#211105)
RJ "Gold is accumulated. Platinum is consumed. Consider that." Hmmm never thought of that - now how does one invest in this interesting medium? Thanks again for your input.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:17 - ID#224151)
Will someone explain how one turns those URL's Blue.Haven't learnt that trick yet. TNX

(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:19 - ID#287277)
China's new PM DOES have a sense of the dramatic!
FT Friday Mar 20 1998

Zhu Rongji to scrap housing subsidies

Zhu Rongji, China's new prime minister, on Thursday made a bold pledge to turn his country into a nation of home-owners by abolishing state-subsidised housing. In his first press conference since being elevated to premier this week, he signalled a new phase of activism in economic reforms

(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:20 - ID#411149)
..... ? .....

John B -

Look into buying Platinum Eagles.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:21 - ID#257136)
LGB: Do you ever get the feeling that ANOTHER could(& proly b) laughin' up his sleeves at the
translations being done on his/her/their handiwork?
Un otro o si quieres, El Otro o La Otra, estas muy interesante, pero creo no es una persona verdad!
BTW, I really appreciate your posts of the past several days, ascerbic though some of them seem to Be.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:23 - ID#284184)
S&P 500/Gold Ratio vs. Historic Mean and Median

Hello, all:

I was travelling for a couple of days and couldn't get my fix of Kitco for a couple of days. ( I really missed it, too. ) Anyway, I saw there were some questions regarding how high stocks are, relative to their historical averages. I don't have the data for the Dow, but do for the S&P 500, vis-a-vis gold, based mostly on their annual averages over the century. And the ratio now, relative to the mean and medians for the century, are startling.

Today the S&P 500/Gold ratio hit a new high for the century: 3.738. This is 142% higher than the absolute peak day for the ratio in 1929, which was 1.547 ( I was able to get that data, too ) . In addition, the ratio is 33% percent the absolute peak day in 1968 ( 2.802 ) .

Naturally, today we VASTLY exceed the mean and median ratios for the century. The mean ( average ) for the century is 0.890; we are 4.2 times higher ( ! ) than that, as of the close today. And the median for the century is 0.525; we exceed that by a factor of 7.1!

That the ratio is so far above any other point in the century tells me both that stocks are extremely rich and that gold is severely depressed.

What was it that Bernard Baruch answered when asked how he did so well with his investments? "I never bought at the exact low, and never sold at the exact high."

I am selling stocks and buying all the gold I can--for the long pull. Splitting hairs over $5 on the POG here or there is silly. Buy gold and be patient.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:25 - ID#287277)
We have a BIG bank in BIG trouble folks....
FT Friday Mar 20 1998

Chase: US bank widens search for merger partner

By Tracy Corrigan and William Lewis in New York

Chase Manhattan Bank, America's largest commercial bank, has approached
at least four potential merger partners in its effort to build a bulge bracket investment banking business.

The Financial Times has learned that in recent months Chase has held informal talks with Credit Suisse, the Swiss bank which owns CSFB, the investment bank, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs, two leading US investment banks. It has also approached Merrill Lynch - talks which have been widely rumoured in the market, prompting a surge in Merrill's share price earlier this week

(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:26 - ID#173274)
@the scene
RJ -- I think you have some decent number 'scenarios' on the platinum and palladium. And the fact that platinum is 'used' is oft forgotten. There is very little above ground stocks, thanks to catalytic converters and such.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:31 - ID#413109)
Our Kitco breathren, are nicely diversified, with some, like Mike, that look to the heavens, or JTF, with
superior knowledge and techniques in physics ( I flunked it in college ) , and some with just a broad knowledge,
due to much reading and/or experience, and some like DA or Glenn that work in ,and with, the financial
markets- but all in all, you must admit, a formidable bunch.
May I suggest some stuff that I enjoy playing with, which some may consider mental masturbation, voodoo,
or whatever, but it frequently works, and the mathematicians may even have a logical explanation for the
following phenomenon, that I like to fool with.
Let's use silver for this demonstration- the weekly chart,go to "Bohl" if you don't have a long termer.
take a compass, and measuring from the bottom in '97 as the focal point, connect back to
the bottom made in '92/'93 and let the circle flow. What do you see? Now also look at the pattern, and the
time of the up/down move in '92/'93, and compare it to '97/'98, and what do you see? Now play with this further
by placing the focal point at bottoms to tops, or breakout points, where trendlines were penetrated and
go to tops/bottoms and swing. Do the same thing on charts of SSC, preferably monthly, logarithmic charts,
that go back 25-30 years and measure from
top to top or bottom to bottom. and a lot of interesting information for forcasting will appear.
It isn't a scientific way to do things, but I warned you that it just a little fun thingy, that may have a good
explanation for why it works. Einstein would probably tell you about time and distance. I prefer to think of it
as the rythms of nature ( cycles? )
Have more silly things for y'all to play with, at another time.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:39 - ID#287277)
"Thursday: Two Nordic rate rises engage"... Europe Going UP???
FT Friday Mar 20 1998 Thursday: Two Nordic rate rises engage Europe
By Simon Kuper and Richard Adams

Finland raised interest rates yesterday, prompting speculation that other likely founders of European monetary union would follow suit. Norway, not planning to join Emu next year, also increased rates yesterday.

Finland denied that the 15-basis-point rise had been coordinated with its
European partners. It said that its economic growth, forecast stronger than in other European Union countries, had prompted the increase. Finnish inflation was 1.9 per cent in February, higher than in core EU countries.

However, Tony Norfield, head of treasury research at ABN-Amro in
London, noted that many other European countries with stronger growth than Germany might also prefer higher interest rates. He cited the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. He said of Finland's rate rise: "Rather than being seen as something funny going on in some Nordic country, it has had some impact." The market raised its prospects for German rates, selling Euromark futures contracts even though the German Ifo survey of business sentiment and M3 money supply figures, both for February, emerged tame.

Between the weak economic data and the perceived upward pressure on
interest rates, the D-Mark closed in London barely changed against the dollar at DM1.827. The dollar was held back by a large January US trade deficit. It barely moved against the yen.

Bill El Zebub
(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:42 - ID#261352)
@I know it's been said before...Read in US News and World report...backlash
in S.Korea aimed at goods produced out of country...Protectionism
and Trade Wars looming? Similarities to Smoot Hawley and 1929?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:43 - ID#222231)
ALL - Good site for spot prices and other info.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:49 - ID#287277)
You all deserve a good laugh--the papagraph below is offered in that spirit {:-)
FT Fri Mar 20 1998

Both the president's and the Senate proposals offer the prospect of growing federal surpluses over the next five years - cumulative black ink of $147bn from the Senate, against $100bn from the White House - and both would use the surplus to shore up social security, the state pension. The main point of contention is on spending - specifically, the proceeds that could result from any agreement in the Congress on a tobacco settlement this year.

(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:51 - ID#24563)
Inflation roaring?
Correct me if I am wrong but doesn't inflation mean an increase in the number of dollars ( or marks, francs, etc. ) ? Is it not true that as the number of dollars increases, the value of each dollar falls? To compensate for this fall, prices rise. Therefore, rising prices are not inflation, they are a symptom of inflation.

The US gov is creating money at a record pace. Isn't this inflation?

(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:55 - ID#347127)
@ Pete

Nice to see you back!

(Thu Mar 19 1998 23:57 - ID#253228)
Absolutely correct Woody
And what is this newly created money being to bid up? Could it be stocks and bonds!