http://www.logancapital.com/comment/octcomm97.html

Anybody out there? Almost an hour of quiet. Enjoyed catching up on recent posts.

RJ, traded platinum for years but never owned the physical. Sounds like an interesting buy. Thanks for the insight.

Donald, thanks for the Market Science site. Looks like the long period of good news will sensitize markets to shocks. We shall see. Also, your home improvements sound wise, whatever the raison d'etre. We are doing much the same.

223, I am truly jealous that you have received 5 credit card offers in a single day. I am sure we have never received more than two on one day.

prometheus
I've been expecting a fox in the henhouse. This unsolicited credit card volume. WHo are the lenders? are they mainstream banks small town capitalists with delusions of grandeur or followers of the Penn Square School of Banking?

All those San Francisco stock investors are going to be chortling in their chablis when the stock market fulfills their 34% per annum dreams and hits 150,000 in 2007!

Heck, I'll lend someone with perfect credit some money for 20% real returns ( over inflation ) in a disinflationary/deflationary environment! All those regulations in banking are to keep the rest of us out of the game.

Banks have been adjusting all
credit card accounts for the last
few years. Potential Gold Mine
for the banks.

Credit Cards are Prime +10%
Rate could hit 34% someday.

I still have a gut feeling that things
could inflate rather than deflate.
Nothing is slowing down or getting
cheaper where I am and in Japan
tool orders are up? Who knows?

Excellant Post Tonight Thanks
and Good Night All

HighRise

Prometheus
As would I, if I could be assured his job would last the term of the loan and that his equity cushion was sufficient for me to regain my investment. Trouble is, I hear that they are offering 125% Mortgage loans. Also have to wonder over the quality of the valuations being relied upon.

It sounds like leverage into stocks however you look at it.

A wee bit of Glendronach is mighty fine on a rainy Saturday night. G'nite.

I agree that there is a possible uptick. I pegged it to last through Tuesday where I planned to short Homestake Mines. I think it might pust up to just below $10 and then fall like a rock to under $2. Sounds zany, I know, but my calculations have a mind of their own so to speak. My work is strictly statistical. I wouldn't know a chart pattern if it bit me in the butt.
I calculate a line using a fifth degree polynomial equasion as a means to detrend my data and then use a modification of the fractional period array analysis developed by the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. I have identified hundreds of cycles and use a synthesis of those projected into the future along with the polynomial line. It doesn't always work perfectly, but gets me close enough to be on the winning side more often than not. Biggest problem is accidentally identifying aftifacts as cycles. It is a constant battle to keep the calculations "fresh".

Jeil-- Are ya thinking my April '98 Homestake strike price 15 call options may be flushed down the terlet? ( wouldn't be the first time )

My thinking is that you would be a lot better off with $10 or $7.5 April puts. If my work is correct those $7.50 puts could be a real thrill ride, as you could get them for 1/8, maybe even 1/16. April is cutting it close although I think the day those options expire should be the end of the next big drop down before a little rally. Of course, you have to put up with the fact that the day you buy them they are instantly worthless until the drop happens. It is rare to pick up an option for 1/16, but back in the fall when Homestake was up around $13 I put in an order for 100 Jan 10 puts and got them for 1/16, but then I had to pay 1/8 for the next 100. I sold those out at $1 in December just before Christmas which was a nice trade for me. I tell you this because at least it gives some credibility to my work. I already have 200+ April 7.50 puts and plan to short about 7000 shares this week, if that gives you an idea if my confidence level. I plan to hold the puts until the day they expire. The only thing that would stop me from the short sale would be a rally Monday and Tuesday that carried Homestake above $10.75. The short position I plan to hold until the third week in May or until something makes me change my mind.

I will look into the downside of HM as a short term trade over the next 3 months. Hmm... would hurt to hedge a bit, eh?

and talked about gold to the uninitiated. They were rapt and soaked up my words of wisdom like a sponge --and will all go out and buy gold on Monday morning and we will all sit down together and watch the pigs fly around the city.

Can't help myself--just one more little one, please, Bart... ( a little Aussie party chat... ) .


What's the difference between BC and the Titanic?

Only 1500 went down on the Titanic.

Must get some sleep. This upcoming week is ANOTHER week, eh? Go Gold!

If you have April 15 calls, I would say you look for big moves and like risky deals. I have an affinity for the low price options myself. In general big moves are rare. Certainly they are rare enough for option writers to make a living off premium erosion. When you get down to it you aren't supposed to be able to make money buying options because the price is rigged for each option for the writer to make money under normal market variances which are easily calculated. Anyone making money buying options absolutely must have a method to beat the averages. If you are planning to add money to the market then I think puts are better than calls, but since you have the calls and they are no doubt at or near $0 you can become a hedger.

Yep, they were pretty close to zero when I last checked. I bought them about a year ago. Seemed like a good idea at the time.

An all American Boy............

http://www.kmf.org/williams/bushbook/bush_book.txt

This from The Northern Miner, on Royal Oak Mines http://www.northernminer.com/free/1.html
Sorry but I can't get you in to stories on other companies, but essentially things are pretty uneventfull.

He's on the Board of Directors of ABX. It's ALL coming together now. The game is afoot, Watson.

A BIT DATED, BUT AN INTERESTING READ IN RETROSPECT..............

"More than three years ago, STRATEGIC INVESTMENT published one of the
first reports on Whitewater. While Clinton was still dancing at the
Inaugural balls, we told readers, "Major scandals are about to engulf
the current Administration. Clinton's chances of reelection are zero.
Part of the reason is his wife... The stories you hear from the Secret
Service people, detailed to guard her, are mind-boggling."

....MUST HAVE BEEN THE BOYS WHO WENT TO WACKO......

http://www.buildfreedom.com/tl13h.htm

Nick@C ( G'day all. Just got back from a party where I drank nothing but
mineral water ( :- ) )


HERE IN THE WILD WEST IN KALGOORLIE.......WE KNOW WHAT GOLD IS !!!!

A BIT DATED, BUT AN INTERESTING READ IN RETROSPECT..............

"More than three years ago, STRATEGIC INVESTMENT published one of the
first reports on Whitewater. While Clinton was still dancing at the
Inaugural balls, we told readers, "Major scandals are about to engulf
the current Administration. Clinton's chances of reelection are zero.
Part of the reason is his wife... The stories you hear from the Secret
Service people, detailed to guard her, are mind-boggling."

....MUST HAVE BEEN THE BOYS WHO WENT TO WACKO......

http://www.buildfreedom.com/tl13h.htm

Cyber-Cash:
The People Are About To Take Over Control Of The Money From The Government

"A company in Amsterdam has launched the most revolutionary experiment in
the history of banking. It has invented a new form of digital money,
which allows users to pay for purchases on the Internet in complete
privacy. They don't pay in dollars, or marks, or pounds. They pay in
E-cash, a new form of private money.

This development is in its infancy. But when "cyber-cash" reaches its
full potential, the elite of the Information Age will do their business
in private, international money, not issued by any government.
Transactions will take place electronically in unbreakable code. No one
but the buyer and the seller will know what happened.

This international money will be backed by gold or other real assets,
unit for unit. For example, you may sell a luxury home on a Caribbean
island for a million units of cyber-cash. Meaning, the title to a
million units worth of gold in a Swiss vault is transferred from the
buyer's name to your name, and you transfer the deed to the vacation
home to his name. All by computer, all done internationally, all
private, all untraceable.

As with many coming developments, this will be a return to the Middle
Ages - to the way things were done before big, centralized governments
got into the act. Paper money was originally a receipt issued for gold
in a vault.

Then, the issuers figured out they could issue many receipts for the
same bar of gold. Who would know? Modern banking was born - a fraud from
start to finish. Naturally, the government got into the game, seeing the
profits to be made.

The game is about to come crashing down ( in every sense of the word
"crash" ) .

Governments will resist cyber-cash in every way they can. The IRS
already holds that you have to report your profits on cyber-cash
transactions, and pay the taxes. But they are going to lose. The thing
will be too big for them to control.

Cyber-cash will be the next - and final step - in the government's loss
of control. The underground economy will be the economy. There will be
no other. It will be global..." [emphasis added]

EXTRACTED FROM .......... Strategic Investment

I just looked at a horoscope of HM I happen to have right here at the computer desk, and for what it may be worth in the tactical mode you seem to be in, there is an interesting bit of astrological activity swinging in right now. I find it potentially significant that HM has its Sun and Moon a degree or so apart at Sun 13 Scorpio, Moon 14.57 Scorpio, and it likewise has a Saturn/Mars conjunction at 13/14 Pisces respectively. The transiting Jupiter is now 11 degrees Pisces, and will aspect those HM horoscope clusters I have just mentioned the FIRST TWO WEEKS IN APRIL ( conjuncts HM's Saturn/Mars, while trining ( ( 120 degreee angle ) ) Sun/Moon ) ( sorry for shouting, but I wanted to emphasize the time window ) . This window is imminent and indicates to me a very good chance for high volatility. If HM gets pushed off the cliff ( below $9 ) it may bottom again in late May or early June. To rally, it must clear 10 3/8 on the upside. That's my take from the day chart. The montly looks like it is at general long term support now. My bias here would be to go long, actually, but I would wait for that little upside breakout above 10 3/8. A breakdown below $9 is a definite short. However, the VOLATILITY that seems coming in a week or so might well be captured very nicely by one or the other of a dual option position. One goes worthless, the other triples, quadruples, etc.... Jupiter often brings a decent move.
This is a very nice astrological situation that could play cleanly into a pure volatility capture play. Hope this helps, or at least hasn't added any confusion.

A recent Scottish immigrant attends his first baseball game in his new
country and after a base hit he hears the fans roaring "run... run!"

The next batter connects heavily with the ball and the Scotsman stands
up and roars with the crowd in his thick accent: "R-r-r-un yah bahstard.
R-r-run!"

A third batter slams a hit and again the Scotsman, obviously pleased
with his knowledge of the game, screams "r-r-r-un ya bahstard, r-r-run
will ya."

The next batter held his swing at three and two, and as the ump calls a
walk, the Scotsman stands up yelling "r-r-r-un ya bahstard, r-r-run. "
All the surrounding fans giggle quietly and he sits down, confused. A
friendly fan, sensing his embarrassment whispers, "He doesn't have to
run, he's got four balls."

After this explanation the Scotsman stands up in disbelief and screams,
"Walk with pr-r-ride man, walk with pr-r-ride!"

Check out.......Precious Metals Australia

http://www.reflections.com.au/PMA/Announcements.html

BETTER THAN A GOLD MINE

Since Old Bill failed to initiate a "new" Gulf war, it would appear that he no longer has "a problem", but "A PROBLEM".

Ever increasing media coverage, and acceptance that "he has done something wrong".

He must be saying to himslf ...."all I wanted was a war".

The price one has to pay !

making head lines ( London Telegraph ) ,all the big players involved Barrick,Anglo,etc.sorry don't have the url,but you can link from http://www.drudgereport.com

Trust you won't mind my giving my take on HM as I was going to post
about SSC anyway. It's a heck of a way of replying to an email, and
I apologise.
HM looks to me to be ready to head up to the 13-15 range in the next
month or two, and SSC I believe, is about to take off to the 3 1/2-4
range over the next 2-3 months.

What was that gold bug rallying cry again? GO GOLD-HIYO Silver!
Platinum, platinum, platinum. Clip clop.

the UN thinks it's time that free water comes to a end,no kdding,reminds me someone saying if a politician could figure out a way to tax the air he would
Chalk this up to reason 2001 to dump the UN in the East river,or better still let Clinton take it to Africa

OK, I seem to remember the movie. They were on a submarine and hearing a telegraph signal from shore in a place that had been nuked. Thinking there was still life there they went ashore and found a windowshade cord blowing in the wind and touching a telegraph key from time to time.

http://www.webpage.com:80/hindu/daily/980319/06/06190003.htm

A crore is 10 million rupees, or 100 lakhs. Now, what in blazes is a lakh?

http://www.southasia.com/kcs/struct01.htm

Mines plan millennium coin to cut gold mountain

By Bill Jamieson



THE world's largest gold mining companies are planning a global millennium coin that could absorb more than 1,000 tonnes of gold, dramatically altering the supply-demand balance.



The project, lead by Canada's Barrick Gold, would create the biggest selling product of its kind since the mighty South African Krugerrand where sales have totalled more than 1,400 tonnes. It is set to dwarf sales of the 1986 Hirohito coin ( 182 tonnes ) and the 1991 Akihito coin ( 60 tonnes ) .



Initial proposals envisage the establishment of a marketing and co-ordinating Millennium Gold Company, with a promotional budget close to the $200m annual total put behind the De Beers "A Diamond is Forever" campaign. The World Gold Council would also be brought in, though not in a lead capacity. News of a millennium coin, backed by an advertising budget of $150m, is set to electrify the world gold market, deeply depressed by continuing central bank gold sales and the effects of the south-east Asian crisis.



The millennium coin is expected comfortably to absorb central bank gold sales, which hit 825 tonnes last year ( 393 tonnes net ) . It could transform prospects for the bullion market and put a floor under the gold price which closed in London on Friday at $291.70, down from more than $400 less than three years ago.



Companies working on the plan, which is in its early stages, include Anglo American Corporation of South Africa, the world's largest gold producer, Newmont and Placer Dome. Disussions are being co-ordinated by Swiss Bank Corporation in London.



Spokesmen for Anglo American in Johannesburg and SBC in London confirmed that proposals for a millennium global coin launch are now being worked on, together with preliminary research on regulatory approvals for marketing and distribution round the world.



Peter Munck, Barrick Gold chairman and prime mover behind the plan, is due to fly to London for talks with senior SBC executives a week tomorrow and a marketing company could be set up by the end of June.



An Anglo American spokesman in Johannesburg said: "We have had discussions on the proposal. It is at an early stage and nothing is set in concrete as yet. But you could say we are not averse. People with experience of the gold coin market see it as a very real opportunity. They are selling the concept of 2000 as a key gold purchase occasion."



Oliver Baring, senior SBC gold division director, said yesterday: "Our initial calculations put potential sales of the coin at substantially above 1,000 tonnes. And it is possible that the coin could move 2,500 tonnes.



"The coin would have a millennium design on one side and a national, institutional or corporate motif on the other. Ford Motor Corporation is extremely excited by the potential as a sales promotion."



Complex legal and regulatory hurdles will have to be overome - in Britain gold coins attract VAT unless they are legal tender and this would dampen sales.



George Milling-Stanley, head of the World Gold Council in New York, said: "We have heard proposals . . . If it comes to fruition, there would certainly be a role for us."



10 January 1998: Gold falls to lowest price since 1979

On one side, the logo "Y2K proof". On the other side, show a computer crashing.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980322/china_econ_1.html

Its a fantastic read. Makes you think what is valuable. All that glitters isn't gold. Book much better than movie. I know that's cliche.

Great URL with myriad gold and stock market links:

http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/finan.htm

I guess the real question is how many ounces of gold do they have?

good morning, all. Caught up on all the news. Thanks Donald for your posts.

Stock market dive?, Gold soaring, Platinum soaring????

Donald--1000 tonnes is 32 millionne ounces, eh! Go Gold.

Sunday March 22, 5:30 am Eastern Time

Japan to move this week on long-awaited stimulus

( Recasts lead, adds remarks from other lawmaker )

By Yoko Nishikawa

TOKYO, March 22 ( Reuters ) - Japan's ruling party puts forward a plan this week to boost
government spending by more than 10 trillion yen ( $77.5 billion ) , a measure long demanded by
major trading partners to help revive the economy.

The policy chief of the LDP, Taku Yamasaki, confirmed on Sunday that the package would be
presented by Friday and that it would contain spending for telecommunications, the environment,
education and welfare.

The measures had been expected after the lower house of parliament on Friday approved the
budget for fiscal 1998/99, which begins on April 1.

The LDP, with a large rural constituency and support from the construction industry, has been
criticised for focusing such programmes in the past solely on road building and other heavy
construction projects.

``The package will feature public works spending, tax cuts for policy purposes and steps for Japan's
bad loan problems,'' Yamasaki said. He did not provide any details.

But he said he remains opposed to permanent tax cuts, such as a six trillion yen reduction proposed
by the opposition. He said such reductions take too long to help stimulate the economy and that
public works projects are more efficient.

There have been increasingly strong demands from other industrialised nations for a cash injection
into Japan's economy to pull it out of a recession and help soften the effects of the Asian financial
crises.

That pressure continued on Saturday with comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin that
nations had to continue to work ``to try to help create a situation in which Japan does the kind of
things they need to get back on the right path.''

``I would say that over the last year and a half the evidence is certainly that that has not worked...
That's not just a frustration for us,'' he said.

The Japanese government has been reluctant to act because it has not wanted to worsen its debt
load, already among the highest of any industrialised nation.

The new budget is the first under a tight fiscal austerity plan that aims to cut state debt to three
percent of gross domestic product by March 2004.

Another influential LDP lawmaker, Upper House legislator Masakuni Murakami, said on Sunday
that tax cuts were needed to stimulate growth.

``We should implement income tax cuts,'' Murakami said on a television panel show, adding that
when the economy is clearly recovering, some increase in the sales tax should be considered.

He said the ratio of indirect taxation, such as the consumption tax, compared with direct taxation,
mainly income taxes, should be examined. Such a shift would follow steps taken by other major
nations.

But asked directly if he wanted higher sales taxes, Yamasaki said: ``I would not like to say that at
the moment because we have Upper House elections coming up.''

Elections to the less-powerful Upper House are expected to be called for July and are expected to
be a key measure of the LDP's popularity.

There is about 1 ton of Gold in the 30,000 Mounties that the Royal Canadian Mint minted. Well, I'll say this for the Mountie, a non circular coin is a novel idea. The whole issue could be bought for around 10 million dollars. That is pocket change for some players.

My prediction is that the odds of my having a bad day Monday are 10 to 1.

Where can I get some of that pocket change?

Why, pray tell? :- )

Allen ( USA ) : Appreciate your being the Kitco spokesperson. What binds us and ANOTHER together is a common interest and concern that 'fiat currency ( paper ) ' based wealth is a sham - bound to fail long term until someone figures out a way to keep it from being corrupted/inflated. I sense a genuine desire on ANOTHER's part to convey something to us, as well as a desire to learn from us.

I have something to add which may make dialog between the two of you easier.

ANOTHER knows gold and oil, and thinks almost exclusively long-term, I suspect. I would guess that his economic future is secure because he has enough of what we all desire.

We at Kitco are more heterogenous, with day traders, intermediate - term traders, and long term investors. Most of us know we do not have enough. Also, we at Kitco tend to focus on short-term phenomena in gold ( days ) regardless of our long-term goals.

So -- it is not surprising that one such as ANOTHER says that one day gold will be revalued, and nothing will be the same. And someone who thinks long term -- decades perhaps, is likely to consider gold/oil worth alot more than it is now ( spot price ) , relative to the dollar. So, it is our differing concepts/perspective of time that makes our communication with ANOTHER difficult, and vice-versa. This also explains much of the mystery in his posts.

I propose the following concept -- that that 'one day of reckoning' about the true price of gold -- is ANOTHER's point of view from his long term perspective. It is up to us -- the short timers -- to determine -- for his ( and our benefit ) just how quickly this 'day of reckoning' will actually take, and the process by which it evolve. I would guess -- weeks to months -- took less than three months in 1987 for gold stocks to double ( I recall, IMHO ) .

Here is another analogy. Lets say that one of us has a very rare one ounce gold coin, and thinks it is worth $10,000 dollars. But -- when he places it on the market, 20% of the buyers offer him $300/oz, 30% offer $500/oz, and one offers $5,000 dollars. But noone offers $10,000 dolars. Are any of these individuals wrong if the inflation of the currency used to calculate these prices is certain? No -- of course not! The only difference is how much premium is placed on the time factor.

The same story applies to oil, as one day it will be all gone.

Here is another analogy: Spot gold, derivatives based on the price of gold one year in the future, and derivatives based on the price of gold in 2015, when the US is likely to have a major credit crunch. Spot gold would be $280, one year from now possibly $350-400, and $2000-$5000 in 2015. Hence it is no surprise that the long termers in the world might place a premium on the price of gold sold by Belguim on the LBMA ( BIS ) . As the price of spot gold starts to move, that LBMA premium is going to go up more.

Thus, I think we can look back in history to guess what will happen to gold this time -- imperfectly, perhaps. The rise in the price of gold will be fast -- fast on ANOTHER's time scale -- but probably not ours.

Hope this helps the kibitzers. We all need to remember that noone should blindly take the advise of anything on Kitco, regardless of source. All information should be corroborated with other independent sources.

http://www.webpage.com:80/hindu/daily/980316/02/0216000h.htm

Good luck on the move~~~~~

I've been betting on the wrong horse in the wrong time.

Donald: Very interesting post. I'm not sure he will get this, as many foreign investors are a bit gun-shy regarding SEAsia. I think he is using the AG approach, and making remarks about what is needed for xxx to work. Then, if the investment goal is not met, and the markets falter, Z Rhongi can just say he warned the Chinese people. He also may be sending a message to world leaders -- 'if I don't get foreign investment dollars soon, I may need to devalue the yuan'.

paper assets rule for the time being, and PMs will languish. This will continue until social/political factors, ie. "confidence" changes drastically, which might not be for some time. So, be wise, spread your assets around, and play the best game you can. If you can make money in the PM market in the short run, more power to you......

IT'S SLOW THIS AM, SO HERE I GO AGAIN.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 16:29
Pete ( ALL, DISSECTION OF ANOTHERS THOUGHTS. ) ID#222231:
Copyright  1998 Pete/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
THESE ARE MY REMARKS TO VARIOUS PARAGRAPHS OF WHAT I
CONSIDER ANOTHERS MOST IMPORTANT AND REVEALING POSTS.
PLEASE TAKE AN OPEN MINDED VIEW THAT ANOTHER MAY BE AN
ANGEL IN DISGUISE FOR GOLDBUGS. WHY WOULD HE TRY TO HELP
US? I SINCERELY BELIEVE THAT ANOTHER HAS RESPECT FOR PEOPLE
THAT RECOGNISE THE TRUTH IN AN HONEST CURRENCY THAT IS
CONVERTIBLE TO GOLD, NAMELY GOLDBUGS. OF COURSE, THE FINAL
DECISSION TO ACCEPT OR REJECT HIS KNOWLEDGE IS UP TO EACH
AND EVERYONES FREE WILL.

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 13:08
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
Copyright  1998 ANOTHER/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The Management of Gold, A Simple Tool for the 90s

For any currency to maintain a reserve status, it must be, in some
fashion, convertible into gold! In the past, the US$ was freely exchanged
for a fixed amount of gold. $20 dollars was equal to one ounce. If the
country wanted to make its money stronger, it would lower the amount of
currency units fixed to one ounce. $10 dollars per ounce made the
currency more valuable in the market and it would buy more things. Also,
a country could decrease the value of its currency by raising the number
of units to the ounce of gold, say $40. The problem with the fixed gold
system is found in matching the amount of gold in the treasury to the
fix! To make the money stronger, one had to bring in gold, as it took
twice as many ounces to back a currency in circulation at $10 as it did
at $20! The reverse is true when lowering the money value to $40. Then,
one half the treasury gold backing had to be removed as only half was
now needed to back the dollar.

REMARKS: THIS IS HOW A RESERVE CURRENCY SHOULD BE BACKED
BY GOLD, OR HOW THE OIL PRODUCERS PERCIEVE THE TRUE VALUE
OF A CURRENCY. A TRUE GOLD/CURRENCY CONVERTIBILITY.
STABILITY OF $US IN TERMS OF GOLD ORICE.

You have probably not read this slant on the past gold standard because

it was never quoted in quite that way, nor looked at in that fashion. If you
allow your mind to perceive the above, one will clearly see that it was
gold that gave the currency value. In that time one did not look to see how
many dollars gold was valued with, rather, how much gold was bid for
each unit in circulation!

Today, the world reserve currency is not on a fixed gold standard, it is
on a freely convertible gold standard. One may, anywhere in the world,
convert US$s into gold. This new freely convertible standard does still
allow the dollar to be backed by gold for those who still demand a gold
fixing. That requirement is enforced by a certain commodity, oil. Yet,
there is a price for the benefit of having all oil sales settled in US$. Yes,
even in this modern era, for the US$ to remain on an oil standard it must
be on some form of gold standard! Regain the perception in the top
paragraph. Then understand that for oil to back the dollar, the dollar must
find value in gold. And the dollar finds more value if it is fixed by the
freely convertible gold standard, to buy more gold!

REMARKS: IT IS DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A TRUE STABILITY BETWEEN
THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THE PRICE OF OIL. THE OIL PRODUCERS
WOULD ACCEPT A REASONABLE CONVERTIBILITY WITHIN CERTAIN
PARAMETERS THAT REFLECTS THIER VIEW OF A REAL VALUE IN THE
EXCHANGE OF OIL FOR GOLD.

This convertible gold market is old from the mid 70s but is new from the
early 90s. It is old by the 70s because it is freely convertible, but it is
new by the 90s as it is not freely tradable! The US$ price of physical
gold is no longer fixed from supply and demand, rather it is created
through the market action of paper gold. Truly, it is the US$ has become
the item traded in the paper gold market, not physical gold.
Participants have yet to realize that the gold futures, gold options and
gold forward markets, worldwide, have become little more than currency
trading arenas. The percentage of gold delivered against these markets
has grown so small as to be nonexistence when compared to actual metal
settled at closing. Physical gold does still move, and in size, but this is
little or nothing compared to the paper gold traded.

REMARKS: IN THE 70'S, THE PRICE OF GOLD WAS CONVERTIBLE IN $US
IN THE OPEN MARKET ( CONVERTIBILITY ) UNTIL DEBASEMENT OF THE
$US CAUSED THE OIL PRODUCERS TO RAISE THE PRICE OF OIL. THEY
FELT THAT IN ORDER TO GET TRUE VALUE FOR THIER COMMODITY, A
RISE IN OIL PRICES WAS NEEDED TO GET A TRUE CONVERTIBILTY TO
GOLD. THIS ACTION ROILED THE MARKETS FOR THE PRICE OF OIL AND
FOR GOLD. IN ORDER FOR THE PRICE OF OIL TO LOWER, THE PRICE OF
GOLD HAD TO BE LOWERED A SUFFICIENT AMNT THAT WOULD BE
ACCEPTABLE TO THE OIL PRODUCERS. BY THE 90'S, THE OPEN
MARKET DID NOT WORK ANYMORE. A POLICY WAS NEEDED TO
DEPRESS THE PRICE OF GOLD.

We are brought to this point for a purpose, but how did we get here? The
largestproducers of gold were introduced to the use of large scale
forward contracts by the Bullion Banks. Once the process started, good
business required it to expand. Shareholders want maximum profits at all
price levels and forward deals were good at any price of gold. Once
hooked on hedge profits during the good times of a high gold price, the
mines now must have at all cost forward deals, just to survive. Some
say the mines will not forward sell at these, break even prices. However,
the shareholders say its better to hedge now, for a lower price will bring
doom! With the US$ price of gold holding at just above average break even
levels, and the ensuing virtual bankruptcy of several well known
companies, it appears that the mine owners are correct.

REMARKS: GOOD BUSINESS MEANS THAT WITH THE EXPANSION OF
MONEY SUPPLY, GOLD AND GOLD RESERVES HAD TO EXPAND WITH
THE CURRENCY EXPANSION. GOLD PRICES HAD TO BE MANIPULATED
LOWER BEFORE OIL PRODUCERS WOULD LOWER THE PRICE OF OIL.
FORWARD SALES AND ROLLOVER OF FUTURE CONTRACTS ON GOLD
PRODUCTION FOR MANY YEARS INTO THE FUTURE WOULD CREATE A
QUASAI PAPER GOLD MARKET. ( ILLUSION OF MORE GOLD. ) THE
MAJOR GOLD PRODUCERS ARE NOW HOOKED, SCALED AND GUTTED,
AS ANOTHER WOULD PROBABLY SAY.

Understand, that many entities lend gold, but it is the CBs that started
and do most of it. Their purpose was to create a paper gold market that
would allow them to manage the freely convertible price of gold. The CB

lends the gold to a bank that sells it on the open market.

( Usually, the gold is placed privately as it must go to the correct
destination. ) Then the bank holds the money and draws interest as
incremental payments are made to the mine for new gold delivered
against the contract. Over the long period that a mine takes to produce
and repay the gold, this money grows. To grasp the fact that the CBs had
a plan, is to know that they lend the gold for only 1% or 2% while the
proceeds set in a Bullion Bank and grow with interest for the benefit of the
BB and the mine! And further, the lenders allow the return of the gold to be
extended out for many years, as in spot deferred. The CBs allow public
opinion to think of this as typical government stupid, its not!

REMARKS: TYPICAL GOVERNMENT STUPID OR SMART AS A FOX? THE
MARKET CREATED BY THIS PAPER GOLD BY BB'S AND CB'S IS HUGE.
WHEN ONE CONSIDERS THIER RESERVES AND FUTURE CONTRACTS
FOR A MAJOR PORTION OF THE WORLDS GOLD PRODUCTION FOR
MANY YEARS OUT, THAT ANY OTHERS INVOLVED IN THE MARKET ARE
INCONSEQUENTIAL.

Now that the gold price in US$ is around production cost, most mines
must use paper gold to survive. The gold industry is coming under world

bank domination, without signing away any sovereignty! Slowly, the CBs
are gaining the ability to manage production and price with this simple
tool.

REMARKS: "WOW", WHAT A STATEMENT. THE BB'S AND CB'S HAVE
CORNERED THE GOLD MARKET WITH THESE SIMPLE TOOLS. THEY OWN
APPROXIMATELY HALF THE WORLDS GOLD RESERVES ABOVE GROUND,
THEY OWN, PRACTICALLY, ALL THE MAJOR GOLD PRODUCERS, PLUS
THE FUTURE PRODUCTION OF GOLD FOR MANY YEARS INTO THE
FUTURE. THEY HAVE CREATED AN ARTIFICIAL PRICE FOR GOLD. GOLD
IS TRADED TODAY IN A PAPER MANNER, NOT PHYSICAL ( SMALL WHEN
COMPARED TP PAPER. ) THIS IS WHY ANOTHER IS TELLING US TO BUY
PHYSICAL. IF AND WHEN PAPER MARKET IS NO LONGER WORKING IN A
CONTROLLED MANNER, A PERIOD WILL OCCUR WHERE ALL TRADING
WILL STOP. THIS STOP IN TRADING WILL HAPPEN BECAUSE THE PRICE
OF GOLD WILL RISE VERY RAPIDLY, FASTER THAN ANYONE CAN
IMAGINE. AT THAT TIME IT WILL BE TOO LATE. ( ( PURE AND SIMPLE. ) )


If they want new mine supply on the market, they roll over the contract
to the BB. If they want new supply off the market, they allow the BB to
pay for and take delivery of the gold and return it to the CB vault. Also,
by offering ( or withholding ) vault gold from lease, they affect the lease
rate and thereby control private lending as well
Understand that the second sentence action is used because gold lending
is done by many different entities. Many times a mine isnt even involved.
Sometimes, gold isnt even involved, just paper. But, its still based on
the gold price! The paper price, that is.
thank you

REMARKS: THE PLAN TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD WORKED FOR
A WHILE. THIS PLAN SEEMS TO BE BEGINNING TO FALL APART AT THE
SEAMS. NOW, BECAUSE OF ANOTHERS BRILLIANT POSTS, ( IMHO ) ,
ONE CAN BEGIN TO SEE THAT THE BANKS CAN NOT KEEP THE PRICE
OF GOLD IN A RANGE ACCEPTABLE TO THE OIL INTERESTS. ONCE THIS
RANGE OF $320/OZ TO $360/OZ IS BROKEN, OIL PRODUCERS ARE
GOING TO BE VERY UNHAPPY. THEY ARE NOW.


Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 19:57
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
Copyright  1998 ANOTHER/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
REPLY TO:

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 15:18

OLD GOLD ( Paper Gold ) ID#238295:

What do you see as the likely trigger for this anticipated golden
earthquake?

Mr. Old Gold,
The US$ price of gold is, now held between several extremes. In Nov. of
last year, a understanding was reached that the paper gold market was
out of control. The private market was using this medium in a way not
intended. Gold was to be taken and held in the $320 to $360 range. This
was good for all. As the down trend was not seen in price yet, it was
known that trading was in place to drop the price. Perhaps, even below
The BIS capital level! Several very large physical buys were made in the
off market ( see Date: Sat Nov 29 1997 15:53 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! )
ID#60253: ) as a warning. At that time the CBs started a slowdown in
lending and sales. The market came close to a major resolution. In Jan.
the BIS was close to a large open move, it would have caused a paper
panic.

REMARKS: I BELIEVE ANOTHER MEANS BY EXTREMES, ANYTHING
BELOW THE PRICE OF $320/OZ+/- AND ANYTHING OVER $360/OZ+/-
PRICE. ONCE THESE EXTREMES ARE BROKEN, THE BB'S AND CB'S
HAVE LOST THIER ABILITY TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD. LAST
NOV,97, A MEETING MUST HAVE BEEN HELD ABOUT THIS LOSS OF
CONTROL. THE PRICE IN GOLD WAS $334/OZ+/-. SEVERAL LARGE
PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD WERE MADE TO WARN THE BANKS TO
STRAIGHTEN UP AND FLY RIGHT. THERE HAD TO BE CONCERN ON THE
PART OF THE OIL PRODUCERS THAT THE PRICE OF GOLD WAS HEADED
LOWER. A PERCIEVED THREAT THAT IF THE PRICE WENT BELOW THE
BIS CAPITAL LEVEL ( ( $280/OZ+$72/OZ ( CONTINGENCY ) ) , THAT THE
BIS WOULD HAVE TO BUY IN THE OPEN MARKET. IF THIS ACTION IS
TAKEN BY BIS, THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD WOULD COLLAPSE
THEREBY CAUSING AN UNWANTED PANIC. ANOTHER PURCHASE WAS
MADE ( BELGIAN? ) TO INFORM THE BANKERS THAT THE PRICE OF
GOLD HAS TO BE RAISED TO THE ACCEPTABLE LEVEL OF $320/OZ TO
$360/OZ. THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED AS OF YET.

Oil will not accept the position, as is. Gold must come back into range as
oil falls no further. Any loss of perceived control by the CBs will trigger a
bid by oil. It would be better for time to pass and allow a natural change
to the new oil currency ( perhaps 1 1/2 years ) . However, it is now my
view that the CBs have lost control! I expect a break above $360 to create
an allout run to infinity, before year end. Physical gold should be
purchased for a lifetime holding, not a trade.
thank you

REMARKS: THE CURRENT CREATED ( ARTIFICIAL ) PRICE OF GOLD AND
OIL IS NO LONGER ACCEPTABLE TO THE OIL INTERESTS. THE 2ND
WARNING BY A LARGE PURCHASE ( BELGIAN? ) HAS NOT WORKED TO
DATE. THIS SITUATION IS GOING TO FORCE THE OIL INTERESTS TO
MAKE OTHER LARGE PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD UNTIL THE
BANKS GET THIER ACT TOGETHER ( OR IS IT NOW BEYOND THIER
CONTROL ) . THE PRICE OF $360/OZ SEEMS TO BE CRITICAL. ANOTHER
IS ALLUDING TO THE FACT THAT ONCE THIS PRICE IS BREACHED (
BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR ) , THE PRICE OF GOLD WILL STOP
TRADING UNTIL A TRUE BALANCE BETWEEN THE $US AND GOLD IS
REACHED. SEVERAL ON THIS FORUM HAVE CALCULATED THE PRICE. IT
IS IN THE 1000'S.

Date: Mon Mar 09 1998 07:55
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
ALL:

The purchase of large physical stocks of gold in Nov. did send a message
to the CBs. They did begin slowdown of sales/easing. The management
tool of gold in the 90s ( see Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 13:08 ANOTHER (
THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253 ) is now to go into reverse! A large purchase,
now, is sending another message, bring gold back into $320 to $360 US$
range. We should see this in five to ten days. This will be a hard thing, as
it may create a crush to cover. Let us watch this new gold market, as it
is not as before.
I will post later in march!

REMARKS: ANOTHER HAS CONSISTANTLY TALKED ABOUT THE PRICE
GOLD SHOULD BE IN THE RANGE OF $320/OZ TO $360/OZ. OBVIOUSLY
THE BANKS CAN NOT OR WILL NOT ATTAIN THIS RANGE THAT THE OIL
PRODUCERS WOULD ACCEPT AS A TRUE VALUE OF EXCHANGE. THE
OIL INTERESTS WILL DO IT FOR THEM BY LARGE PURCHASE IN THE
PHYSICAL MARKET.

GENTLEMEN, THE BANKERS HAVE LOST CONTROL AND ARE PROBABLY
PULLING OUT ALL STOPS BY COVERING SHORTERS TO PREVENT A
FURTHER DROP IN PRICE.

ANOTHER DID NOT MEAN THAT THE PRICE OF GOLD WILL BE IN THIS
RANGE IN 5 TO 10 DAYS. I BELIEVE HE MEANT THAT THE POLICY TO DO
SO IS STARTING. HOW ANYONE CAN ACCUSE ANOTHER OF MAKING
SPECIFIC PREDICTIONS IN A SPECIFIED TIME IS BEYOND MY
COMPREHENSION WHEN HE HAS ALLUDED TO THIS RANGE IN
PREVIOUS POSTS AS BEING DESIRABLE TO THE OIL INTERESTS. IT IS
OBVIOUS THAT HE IS TOO INTELLIGENT TO MAKE A SPECIFIC
PREDICTION IN A SPECIFIC TIME. I'M SURE HE DOES NOT BELIEVE HE'S
GOD.


SUMMARY:

FOR MORE INFORMATION AS TO ANOTHERS IDENTITY, LOOK UP MY
POSTS TO "ALL-3/16/98-10:32, PH in LA-3/16/98-13:05 AND
PREACHER-3/16/98-15:12. THE SITE FOR THIS INFO ON THE COLLIN
SEYMOUR PAGE HAS BEEN MYSTERIOUSLY DELETED. SEYMOUR
HIMSELF WONDERED WHETHER IT WAS A MERE COINCIDENCE
-ALL-3/20/98-08:14. THIS COINCIDENCE MAY SUPPORT THAT ANOTHER
IS A REAL, LIVE, HONEST MAN OF STATURE WITH CONSIDERABLE
INSIDER KNOWLEDGE. ( IMHO ) .

THE PROVERBIAL S%%T IS GOING TO HIT THE FAN SOON, UNLESS THE
BANKS REGAIN CONTROL. ANOTHER DOES NOT BELIEVE THEY HAVE.
THIS MEANS THAT PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD ARE IN THE
WORKS, WHICH WILL SOUND THE DEATH BELL FOR PAPER GOLD.
!!!!SOON!!!!

THE ABOVE IS MY OPINION. I JUST ASK THAT YOU CONSIDER WHAT I
HAVE WRITTEN SERIOUSLY AND MAKE YOUR OWN DECISSIONS TO
ACCEPT OR REJECT. THE INDICATION THAT THERE IS A SHRED OF
TRUTH IN ANOTHERS IDENTITY WARRENTS A DISSECTION BY ALL AND
A FINAL COMPARISSON OF NOTES.

THIS MAY BE THE MOST IMPORTANT THING THAT LURKERS AND
POSTERS ON THIS FORUM CAN DO "RIGHT NOW" BEFORE IT IS TOO
LATE. THE TIME IS AT HAND.

THE SHADOW KNOWS! ( OR MAYBE HE DOES'NT KNOW JACK S##T. )

Return to Kitco Homepage

Yeah, I'm no ANOTHER. As Gerald Ford said upon assuming the Presidency in 1974, "I'm a Ford, not a Lincoln".

http://www.dendritics.com/metal-f.htm

Delphi: Thanks for your insight on the EURO launch. If I got your post correctly, there may be a Dutch head of the new european central bank. My guess is that the French and Germans are neutralizing each other, permitting the Dutch 'dark horse' candidate to win. That will be interesting, as France and Germany hold most of the gold.

By the way, if I read the murky depths of the EURO sites correctly, the real power regarding purchase and sale of gold ( and other money issues ) will not be executive ( EURO CB director ) , but by vote from member countries, weighted 50% by GNP and population, IMHO. I could not discern who represents member countries -- the politicians, or the central bankers. Real important information for us.

I will look forward to further comments from you, SDRer, and any others who undersand the EURO situation. I think the price of gold over the next 2 years or so will depend very strongly on how the EURO evolves.

Have a nice day, everyone!

Sound advice, sir. I have been moving assets from "paper" ( stocks, bonds, CD's ) into "stuff" for about 18 months. Got about 20% of my total investment money in Gold related stuff now. I'm planning to up that to 50% over the next 6 months. Going to focus on the physical and stocks. I like the Gold Maple Leaf and the Central Fund of Canada ( symbol CEF on the AMEX ) as investment vehicles. Might just pick up a few Mounties as well, eh!

As gold mining companies fall, who is there to pick up the pieces.

Answer, the company who financied them in the first place, generally with a gold loan. And which company is that ?

As commercial banks fall, who is there to pick up the pieces.

Answer, the company who financied them in the first place, generally through derivatives trading and paper gold. And which company is that ?

http://www.rothschild.com.au/

Gold is a cartel.......................................

there is a lot of credibility in what he says, and your analysis is right on, IMHO. Time will tell.........

Pete: I think you and I are on the same wavelength. I do not aggree with all of ANOTHER's comments over the last six months - such as gold for oil at 1000/oz, etc. But I do believe that he is geniuine, now that he is willing to start dialogues with some of us. ANOTHER has things to tell us -- through Allen -- and we have things to tell ANOTHER. Once we both have established the same time scale, I think the converstaions will be more fruitful.

Looks like Wayne Angell's forecast of $7 oil was a bit off, to put it mildly. OPEC production cuts in the wings. Looks for oil to trade between $15 and $20 for some time to come.

unfortunately you are right........

Haggis, are you alluding to a CONSPIRACY ( ( S##t, there I said that word again. Slap,slap, slap ( with my hand to my cheek ) ) , you know I do'nt believe in that crap. BTW, who is Rothschild?

Many thanks for the compelling recapitulation of the essence of Another's observations, insights, and warning. This is certainly the most important story at kitco, and may prove to be the most important economcs and market story of our immediate time.

http://goldsheet.simplenet.com/

Substitute the word SYNCHRONOCITY for COINCIDENCE in my post re: ANOTHER'S IDENTITY.

No conspircy, it's the way it works..............

The Rothschild's are supposedly the Mr. BIG of Gold and other things. ANOTHER has not made any comment on them. I, for one, would like a THOUGHT from him on the Rothschilds. In plain English as well.

http://www.kuwait.net/~zakbat/guide/current.htm

Nobody can explain anything to me. MY HEAD IS TOO HARD.

You will not have to wait for 2015 to see gold over a thousand dollars.
In 2003, Pluto trines ( 120 degree angle ) NYSE Moon ( silver ) from 19 Sagittarius. The last important aspect Pluto made to NYSE Moon was in 1979. It closed out the year at exactly 19 Libra, in exact opposition to NYSE Moon. Silver spiked at $50, after having risen dramatically from around $7 all year. The trine in 2003 is an even more "supportive" aspect. I dare not guess where silver will be at that time, but if indeed Another proves correct, and gold has ceased trading in the thousands of dollars per ounce, then free trading of silver will be an experience to behold. Silver bullion may be the "sleeper" investment - certainly the "people's" investment - of the first several years of the new century. With gold out of reach, and unavailable except only to those who already are in possession of it, silver will take the public investment place of gold and rise to extraordinary heights.

http://www.cruzio.com/~blackops/

Just in case you get bored, or your head softens...............

I and most others here have used "paper" to refer to stock holdings. Perhaps it would be helpful in our discussions to be a bit more precise in our usage of terms. Stocks represent ownership of real assets in the same way our land deeds do. Paper "assets" don't represent ownership of anything except someones promise to pay or perform - such as bonds, options, futures and endless derivative instruments. This is why it makes sense to form a ratio of THINGS like Dow and Gold; they are both asset classes which can be "priced" in a common measure. What we are seeing is extremes in the valuation of certain asset classes relative to others on the one hand, and also a huge glut of paper holdings ( promises ) at the same time.

I work all day and all nite just to make up for my losses. There's nothing wrong with being a Rothschild. A very noble name.

GO GOLD, ESPECIALLY SILVER, I'M TIRED OF WORKING DAY AND NITE.

Perhaps so. A simple yes or no from... HIM... would clear things up. Aye, go Gold!

http://www.zakathouse.org/

To explain or tell the meaning of:present in an understandable terms; to conceive in the light of individual beleif, judgment or circumstance: construe... Question: what does one of "simple thoughts" NOT need? Good Luck people. Tom

Good, positive FT article of 'junior' exploration companies: "Many are fighting for financial survival because of low metal prices and investor disenchantment following Bre-X scandal...CRU study points out that there is a close relationship between successful exploration and growth in shreholder value. CRU says junior use far less money..."Success in discovering new mines is not related to the amount of money spent. It is the quality of the exploration programme that matters. He suggests that big mining companies would do better to give up most grass roots exploration, but to get involved at a later stage by carefully monitoring the progress of the junior exploration and identifying potential partners or acquisition candidates."

Donald@Always.Helpful.Stuff Many thanks! Yet again!

Thank you for your insights. Your comments are an important part of the discussion. The search for the truth is very interesting, is it not? I appreciate your ability to "turn over every stone".


Sincerely,


The Hermit

Speaking for myself, one does NOT need complications. "Keep It Simple, Stoopid" is my philosophy. Auric- Keeper Of Odd Kitcoisms ( K.O.O.K )

down as kook....the book review of Feudalism...alias American Capitalism was spot on just look at the MAI deal,this book was written early 90's. Thanks HAGGIS

Bart ( Kitco ) this page on the net is awarded Number 1 Soap Opera status. Forget Gold call Days of our lives to sell the rights. Away to read Phantom of the opera.

The most recent very large gold transaction that makes our lives here at Kitco so exciting, was announced about two weeks ago by ANOTHER as a PURCHASE.
In the meantime this transaction has happened and is called the "BELGIUM GOLD SALE" following the media imposed regulation of wordings.

ANOTHER has announced the transaction as an aggressive move to purchase with the intent to send a message to the CBs. This announcement was extremely bullish for gold ( as every purchase report or announcement is ) .
For instance: Warren Buffet's silver purchase was not reported as a "sale", even though his silver transactions involved a lot of sellers too.

I havn't read anything about the purchasers involved in this most recent gold transaction. Imagine the press would have reported this transaction as a LARGE PURCHASE by an impoprtant oil prodicing country or a consortium of such countries. I think the market momentum for gold would have turned on the "spot".

Such wording of events is not an accident. I don't care if somebody wants to call this symptomatic for a conspiracy. I call it regulation of terminology. Question: who has the power to regulate such wording???

Of course this explains why the price of the transaction was 4.5% above the "market" price. The Belgians were not he ones who initiated the sale.
But how did the LBMA get to chose the Belgians?? Who ordered them to sell at such a lousy price?? Did they volunteer?? Are they hopeless??

And finally: who were the purchasing parties???

Alberich the Dwarf

--just frustrated...
From FT, "Markets Report"

...Mr. Buffet announced...Berkshire had built a TREASURE TROVE
totaling 129.7m ounces.
"The sell-off coincided with a drive by five South Korean companies to collect silver TO HELP THE COUNTRY's ECONOMY."

Ergo: Gold and Silver have V A L U E. When your back is to the
wall, they provide an ASSET of VALUE that can be SOLD to SAVE your
whatever...why is this SIMPLE truth so difficult for folks to understand?
bbl

Carl@AMX.and.'paper'.distinctions Enjoyed those posts!

Your post was a most remarkable compilation of Another's thoughts and its possible meanings. Thanks for taking the time to pass on your comments to us lurkers. You should write a book ( doesn't everyone? ) and gold sales ( purchases ) would soar another 1000 tons.

As you refocus the thought aperture, center on this: central banks gold sales have constituted a propaganda ploy. When Belgium made her first sale her debt to GDP stood at and eyebrow raising 167%. Only one paper reported accurately what the proceeds of this sale accomplished. In a throw-a-way last line to a side-bar story, the Financial Times noted, the proceeds were used to pay-down public debt.

Really BBL--off to champagne Sunday brunch--that should help {:- )

Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Mexico
agree to cut oil supplies .

And more...:
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news101p.htm

for Alberich the Dwarf

You said
"But how did the LBMA get to chose the Belgians??
Who ordered them to sell at such a lousy price??
Did they volunteer?? Are they hopeless??

I only know the answer to one of these questions.
Yes ... Belgians are hopeless.

Ted Only two apologies to Bart? Try another and you have the magic 3 then you can post 3000 words with a few ANOTHER comments and some Gold innuendoes and never be banished. Away to keep the waves down.

A most interesting post. I agree with your assessment that the "regulation of terminology" in the media is "not an accident". Why would they "who have the power to regulate such wording" do so except to control the "THOUGHTS" of the people. IMVHO

These are interesting times, especially here at Kitco.

Thank you for the post.

The Hermit

Aother reason for gold in Asia...

Korean peace on hold after failed 'cheese diplomacy'.

More:
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/032298/world6_6292.html

WSJ interactive reports " A new regulation slaps 5% tax on offshore foreign exchange transactions from rupiah into foreign currencies, effective Monday." IMF "..not properly informed...". "Bankers and economists seemed stunned..." Tom

I do not appreciate being called an idiot. I do consider the source though! Does that post shoot down your insults to ANOTHER, or is it just sour grapes? Others are interested, even if your not. I see in your eyes, others do not count. Maybe others should leave and have only your opinions as gospel!

G'Day fellow 'veggie'---I could never compete with Another...Who can,eh??.....By-the-way....The Princess of Wales died on my birthday...

We'll have the media giving us plenty of notice to wish you a "happy".

The only pertinent question one can ask about the tragedy of South East Asia is, Why?. As with so much we observe in todays global market, so much of this story seemed so strange: why Suharto obdurate behavior; why Mahathir Mohamad anger?; why the willingness of old enemies to work together; why the sudden disavowal of the Sacred IMF?

We wanted to uncover 1 ) Motive, 2 ) Opportunity, 3 ) Timeline , while still acknowledging that no flood-stage river so swiftly running could be explained by the fall of one raindrop.

In the early summer of 1997, the government of Indonesia informed CalTex [Caltex=Chevron and Texaco] that it would not renew CalTexs leases in 2001 for one of the most productive and rich areas that CalTex pumps. This was a major blow. Thailand also was reviewing permissions.
These policy adjustments were --reasonably--the result of the Petroconsultants, Geneva ( and other major reports confirming Petroconsultants view ) that oil production would peak much earlier than had been previously thought and that the price of oil--given the upward, gradually slope of consumption--would experience a one-time repricing UPWARDS. [All the relevant urls were posted within the last 10 days or so.]

So CalTex ( and others ) were about to be cut-off at the pass, just as even greater rewards were in view. MOTIVE.

In late summer of 1997, the currencies of SouthEast Asia began to be attacked. CalTex Singapore headquarters offers a full-range of services, including risk-management [derivatives, hedging, etc.]. CalTex sought to improve their bargaining position. OPPORTUNITY

It was a simple, straightforward business attack plan. It went awry because todays markets are filled with players who carefully watch, for a train leaving the station which they can jump aboard. When CalTex put their play in motion, summer of 1997, others say a bullion train leaving the station and jumped aboard. TIMELINE

The unintended consequences are eerily similar to the ABX--forward sales--paper gold debacle. Players observe what appears to be a cant lose money making play and jump on, without knowing--let alone understanding--what the motivations/goals of the originating player were/are. What results in unintended but a disaster nonetheless.

Other problems....tieing other threads together...

Agree the Belgian Government is hopeless. They threw good money ( Gold ) after bad money ( the EMU ) . They stand to reap a cash cow from a Federalized Europe. And with Brussels being the Washington D.C. of the European Union. The whole EMU thing looks like a farce just waiting for its pants to fall down.

Bully Beef ( Nevil Shute wrote On The Beach ) ID#259282:
Its a fantastic read. Makes you think what is valuable. All that glitters isn't gold. Book
much better than movie. I know that's cliche.

__________________________________________


I'm ever amused by these sojourns to Lourdes or somesuch
to witness the reoccurrence of the reflection of the image of the
virgin M. in a cathedral window or something. Flash-- Jesus spotted
in a burrito in Xpatl, Mexico. People make meccas halfway around
the world looking for the miracle. Like, where's the miracle!!?!
where's the miracle!!?! As Aurator noted in his little soliloquoy
related to that of an Oriental sage, I'm reminded of what a third
grade teacher once said and stuck, that the pointed finger has
three curled the other way. Which to me, I've come to see, probably
properly apportions ( approximately ) . Knowing myself as I do, I
don't expect much change coming from that quarter either : )

Pete  Gold resistance 298.00 297.40 Silver resistance 6.23 Platinum support 379.50-378.10  Palladium support 228.00-233.50 ---Try some technical indicators instead of double posting 2861 words to brainwash newbies on this form----Away to find the in crowd

The design of this "millennium coin" will certainly be interesting. I suspect that it will be on a level with the 1776 "novus ordo seclorum" on the back of the dollar bill. A Redshield Triumph of extraordinary magnitude.

Tuned in to see

What's new on Kitco

Seems just ANOTHER day

So sad, but its so.

PS

No need to tell me this is the worst rhyme in history. That is the intent.

OK

Just saw Your yesterdays message to me - I am not a big fan of ANOTHER and decided to quit yesterday - too much noise.
To my knowledge, there are some alternative candidates for the chair of ECB president. Possible names are: Angel Rojo, president of CB of Spain, Sirkka Hamalainen ( CB of Finland ) and de Minister of Finance of Belgium Maystadt. The last one is also candidate for East European Bank. I do not think that Dutch will withdraw Duisenberg as candidate, so there will be a battle anyway.
What is also important now - the board. In addition to President and Vise-President, there will be 4 to 6 board members. Germany, France and Italy ( ? ) wants permanent seats there, UK want to reserve a chair just in case UK will decide to participate in EMU. Smaller countries want some rotation system. In the mean time Dutch struggle to reduce their current EU payments from 0.7 to 0.4% of GDP.
Regarding all this Another story - oil for gold deal - even if it is true - what does it mean? It means, that Arabs ( long time investors in this case ) are interested in lowest oil/gold ratio - high oil prices and low gold prices. Maybe I am missing something, but except some demand, that does not change much if it is an existing deal, it can not drive gold up. And I do not understand, how much time this idea could be such an attractor for so many people. It looks like a lot of people wanted to be told what to do, finally - to be manipulated.

Why should I talk to LGB? Is he God? I know, as well as everyone else, that he is in your camp re: ANOTHER. I do not try to insult your opinions. Why is it that your crowd can not keep an open mind and insist on degrading those that do not agree with you? As far as tech indicators, if they were always reliable, I'd be a billionaire today instead of a lousy millionaire.
Many a good man has been burned in future prices before and will again. I for one would hate to sell a future contract for say $350/oz, to find it at $1,000/oz before expiration, would'nt you?

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news101r.htm

Not "Lowest" but highest oil/gold ratio, of course

Another did have a comment about Barron Rothschild just after he died. It sounded to me like he knew the Barron personnally.

Pete, good job with the Another piece.

Up until the two-tiered gold price theory was presented, I thought Another's writings were interesting, something to think about. Like the investment advice "always keep 10% in gold". D.A.'s comments about the internal workings of the paper gold market not confirming anything in Another's writings seemed more real-life to me. Now with the two-tiered theory, I believe the paper gold market wouldn't confirm/reject Another's writings. It's funny how the clearer the theory gets the cloudier it becomes.

I also want to put a plug in for supporting this BB - buy a Mounty from Bart!

It seems to me, as noted somewhere, the whole EMU scheme
has placed the cart before the horse, monetary union before
political union. It makes sense somewhat for Florida and
Michigan to have a common currency, policies, etc. As I've
also seen noted, should the plan actually come to fruition
approximately on schedule according to present frameworks,
the rub lies in that should it prove catastrophicly unworkable,
there is no return mechanisms in the founding papers.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980322/emirates_g_1.html

Given much of the debate on this forum regarding gold's role in a new paradigm era, it comes as some comfort that Greenspan still considers gold a monetary instrument, apparently the equal of dollars. For those of you who missed the Nightly Business Report last Friday, a participant in an interview had this to say:

"MOORE: The so-called currency board Indonesia is talking about would have little of the Federal Reserve Board's policy making flexibility and yesterday Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan said such arrangements are very rigid and carry very high risks. Rigid because the Indonesian currency board could not print money, rupiahs, unless it had dollars or gold in hand to back the new money. And risky because it takes a very high level of political and economic discipline, the kind that Hong Kong and Argentina had to make it work.

Does this imply that those who have been downgrading gold to the status of a mere commodity had better consider the Chairman's most significant opinion of gold's ability to back currencies?

How come everyone is so surprised with this statement ?Oil is traded for gold?? I thought this was common knowledge. I've heard of it atleast 10 years ago. After reading some of the surprising posts here, asked a bunched of friends in the oil business, they all knew about it also. This has been going on for so long I didn't even think of it as news when Another started posting it.

I return

FYI--FWIW
Soros is getting out of his Lloyds position and increasing his Venezuelas Banco Caracas position...

His term expires in August, 1999. After assuming the reigns of the Federal Reserve Board in August 1987, Alan Greenspan will have served 12 years. Under his watch, Stocks literally went gangbusters. Same with TBonds. I say Dr. Greenspan will not serve a fourth term. I would also love to know how much physical Gold he personally owns.

What I have found interesting: the MERE introduction of Trichet into
the play [and at the beginning of the second act, for heavens sake!].
The 'play' had been written, approved; and cast; THEN the French demand that their star be cast in the lead role? Out of a clear-blue-sky appears such a thundercloud! One can not help but
wonder at the motivation; most particularly when--as before mentioned--
it was linked to such a fervent PR campaign from the UNITED STATES! {:- )

Pete Sorry youre not a billionaire ---Maybe you need more study----Instead of pushing ANOTHERS ideas maybe you could learn how to trade. Away to find my strait jacket.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980322/malaysia_w_1.html

The last paragraph of your post 13:12 is the truth,
which I figured out 2 month ago.

March 22, 1998

Oil price set to leap on news of major output cuts

LONDON ( Reuters ) - World oil prices are set to jump sharply when the market reopens Monday after a trio of oil producers Sunday announced a surprise package of supply reductions.
 Analysts and traders said that a pact struck in the Saudi capital Riyadh after secret talks would immediately add a dollar a barrel to the price of oil and quite possibly more in the short term.
 They said that the size and durability of the price rise would depend on the producers' ability to deliver on a pact aimed at cutting up to two million barrels a day ( bpd ) from the world market.
 "A cut of two million bpd will get Brent back up to the $16 a barrel level," analyst Mehdi Varzi at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson said. "But they will need two million to restore confidence in the market place particuarly given the prospect of extra Iraqi exports."
 Benchmark Brent blend crude ended trade Friday at $13.27 a barrel, having recovered from a nine-year low less than $12 amid rumors of secret consultations to secure production cuts. Brent averaged $19.30 last year.
 Analysts said the agreement will help repair the damage done to oil markets by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ( OPEC ) in December when it raised member country supply limits 10 percent to 27.5 million bpd.
 "It looks as if OPEC has made itself whole again," Peter Gignoux of Saloman Smith Barney, said. "There was obviously a realization that things had gotten out of hand."
 The meeting in Riyadh over the weekend between OPEC producers Saudi Arabia and Venezuela and non-OPEC Mexico reached an agreement to undertake an effort with other producers to withdraw a total of 1.6 million to two million barrels daily from the 75 million bpd global market.
 Oil ministers from the three countries said they already had a commitment for 1.1 million bpd of cuts and said details of the full reduction would be released after meetings with other oil nations in coming days.
 The supply cuts come into effect April 1 and will be effective to the end of the year.
 Bob Finch, head of trading at Vitol, said the 1.1 million commitment would be enough immediately to add a dollar a barrel to oil prices.
 "There's probably a $1 a barrel in it," assuming a cut of 1.1 million bpd," Finch said. "But if they get a cut of two million we could see prices up $2."
 As details of the Riyadh pact emerged Sunday, Saudi Arabia promised to slash 300,000 barrels a day ( bpd ) from current supplies estimated at 8.7 million.
 Mexico's Energy Ministry said it would order a 100,000 bpd supply cut and added that Venezuela had made a commitment to reduce its sales by 200,000 bpd.
 Kuwait's Oil Minister Issa al-Mazidi weighed in with a 125,000 bpd contribution and Algeria with 50,000 bpd.
 Other Gulf OPEC producers the United Arab Emirates and Qatar were also expected to cooperate although there was no immediate confirmation.
 Producers like Britain and the United States, where the oil industry is run entirely by commercial firms rather than state oil companies, will not participate.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980322/swiss_nati_1.html

Hello. I was not sure about Your "no return mechanisms" question ( ? ) . It force me to look papers and some web sites. Will be back soon.

Mike Stewart, Panda, other technical chartists - I've been looking at technical indicators that will work well at finding buy signals for gold. Working with the Toronto Stock Exchange gold index I've found that a combination of the slow stochastic and the RSI seems to have some merit. If you look at long term and medium term ( 6 month or so ) bottoms in gold they always start with both indicators in the oversold region. As the upswing progresses the slow stochastic will oscillate between overbought and oversold with dips and upswings. The RSI will bounce off 39 or 40 ( neutral territory ) when the slow stochastic moves to the oversold condition during these cycles. As long as the RSI remains above 39 the bull is still in progress and the index will move higher from a temporary low. If the RSI drops below 39 the bull run is over. Right now we are in an oversold condition on the slow stochastic and the RSI hit 40 on Thursday and moved up to 42 on Friday indicating that we have strong potential for a move up on Monday. Do you guys look at these indicators? Comments?? If you are using Supercharts it is best to plot first the slow stochastic and then go to insert technical indicator and pull up the RSI. While you are doing the later set the scaling for a minimum of -10 from the default of 0. That way the chart produces an axis for the RSI with 40 in the legend. Otherwise its hard to se where 40 is at on the axis.

'Year 2000' bug won't go away
2.22 p.m. EST ( 1922 GMT ) March 22, 1998

NEW YORK  Almost two years before the fabled "millennium bug'' is due to strike the world's computer systems, its story is already being derided by some on Wall Street as a tired old tale.

Quite a few investors, analysts and commentators on the financial scene complain that they are growing weary of Year 2000 horror stories, and declare that are much more interested in hearing about solutions to the problem.

Certainly the stock and bond markets don't seem to be very troubled about the issue, which arises from the fact that many computer programs used in business, government and elsewhere were designed to recognize only the last two digits of a year. If the software isn't fixed or replaced, it threatens to go haywire when the year turns from 99 to 00 on Jan. 1, 2000.

The stock market indexes continue to set record highs. With double-digit gains so far in just the first quarter, they have already matched or exceeded most optimistic forecasts for the full year.

But observers in both the public and private sectors who are monitoring Year 2000 preparedness efforts have been issuing increasingly ominous warnings in recent days. Whether investors like it or not, the subject seems certain to loom larger and larger as an economic and financial issue as the deadline draws closer week by week and month by month.

Last Wednesday, the General Accounting Office of Congress said government agencies were making only "uneven progress'' toward fixing or replacing important computer systems as quickly as they must. "Some agencies are significantly behind schedule and are at high risk that they will not fix their systems in time,'' said Gene Dodaro, the GAO's assistant comptroller general.

Edward Yardeni, the Wall Street economist who has emerged since last year as a leading Y2K voice, said last week that he had raised his projected probability of a recession induced by the problem from 40 percent to 60 percent.

"I would love to be wrong on this issue,'' Yardeni, of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Inc., said in a report dated last Monday. "I am not predicting the end of life on planet earth.''

But he added, "let's recognize that Y2K is an emergency situation that requires immediate attention and enormous resources.''

Even if most computers are ready on time for the changeover to a new century, analysts point out, a relatively small percentage that aren't could easily disrupt communications, transportation and financial systems that make up the veins, arteries and nervous system of the world economy.

For investors, reliance on computer systems extends not only to electronic marketplaces and brokers' or mutual fund managers' World Wide Web sites, but also to the record keeping and security of their accounts at any financial institution.

Stock and bond certificates, and even savings passbooks, have become increasingly rare in the modern world, replaced by entries in computer systems.

"A recession,'' says Yardeni, "could begin before Jan. 1, 2000, perhaps during the second half of 1999, if the public becomes alarmed and takes precautions. If stock prices fall sharply in 1999, in anticipation of a recession in 2000, the resulting loss of confidence could cause consumers to retrench.''

He also observes, "if information technology systems do fail, perhaps the resulting disruptions and adverse economic consequences will be minimized by contingency planning and preparations. I hope so.

"Let's be realistic. We collect, store, process, analyze and report so much information with our information technology systems that in most cases there are simply no viable low-tech alternatives. Going back to `manual' systems means going back in time to when our output and productivity were much lower than today.''

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980322/malaysia_m_1.html

Rubin Defends IMF Chief
8.56 a.m. ET ( 1356 GMT ) March 22, 1998

By Patricia Wilson, WASHINGTON  U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin Saturday defended International Monetary Fund chief Michel Camdessus and reiterated Washington's demand that Japan stimulate its economy in the face of Asia's economic turmoil.

Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, a longtime critic of the IMF, has urged that Camdessus, the institution's managing director, be fired.

"I would like us to get rid of the head of the IMF. He's a socialist from France. Am I too blunt?" the Mississippi Republican said Thursday.

Rubin disagreed with Lott, praising Camdessus for doing "a very good job in a very difficult environment" and calling the IMF "very effective" in dealing with financial crises in South Korea and Thailand.

"I think we are well served by Michel Camdessus," Rubin said on the CNN program Evans & Novak.

Camdessus, 64, has completed just over a year of his third five-year term as head of the IMF. He was appointed by the IMF executive board for a fixed term, which cannot be ended prematurely by the U.S. Congress.

The IMF, often criticized for ignoring the needs of the poor, has come under fire from left and right in Congress for its lending policies. The Clinton administration is fighting an uphill battle for new funds to replenish IMF coffers depleted by multi-billion-dollar Asian bailouts.

In the interview, Rubin warned Republican lawmakers against attaching controversial anti-abortion measures to the $18 billion IMF package, declaring passage of the legislation "essential to our interests".

Rubin also expressed "very great concern" about Japan's "inability to get back on a strong domestic demand-led world path" and said the United States and other industrial nations needed to keep the pressure on Tokyo.

"I think it's very important for Japan, but it's also very important for its Asian neighbors," he said.

"On balance, I think the high probability is we'll have a good economy, low inflation and low unemployment going forward," Rubin said. "But we need to face these issues ... so they don't become severe and have the potential of a more severe impact on our economy."

U.S. officials have pressed Tokyo to cut taxes and increase spending, even suggesting clear economic goals. With economic woes plaguing much of Asia, they say it is essential for Japan to boost its economy and help the region recover.

But Tokyo has accused the Clinton administration of interfering and insists it is constricted by a huge budget deficit and legislative opposition.

Rubin said that despite their lack of success, industrial nations had to continue to work "to try to help create a situation in which Japan does the kind of things they need to get back on the right path."

"I would say that over the last year and a half the evidence is certainly that that has not worked ... that's not just a frustration for us," he said.

http://www.aicpa.org:80/news/031998d.htm

Zakat on Gold and Silver ( alloys, coins, utensils and jewellery )

Rules:

( 1 ) The duty of paying Zakat on surplus gold and silver is not dependent
on either the intent to save them ( since they are inherently supposed to
be saved ) , or to trade in them ( since they are inherently adapted to
exchange and investment ) . The method of payment was left to the reasonable discretion of the owner while zakat was prescribed as an encouragement to keep wealth in continuous circulation.

( 2 ) The fiscal year means the lapse ofa complete ( lunar ) year from the
accomplished existence of nisab.
( 3 ) Nisab for gold, i.e. the minimum limit on which zakat is due, is
20 dinars. One Islamic gold dinar being 4.25 grams, the nisab for gold
thus amounts to 20 x 4.25 = 85 grams in pure silver.
( 4 ) Nisab of silver is 200 dirhams. One Islamic silver dirham being 2.975
grams, the nisab amounts in this case to 595 grams of pure silver.

( 5 ) The fiscal year and nisab are considered together for all properties
in gold, silver and/or commerical goods, so that a lower nisab of any may be added to any other to make up a complete nisab, taking into account whichever is more favouraable to the poor in terms of value and weights. for instance, a person who own half a nisab of gold ( i.e. 4.25 grams ) and half nisab of silver ( i.e. 2.975 grams ) , is deemed to possess the full nisab by weight.

The start of the fiscal year for anyone of gold, silver or commercial goods applies to the others.

( 6 ) The payable rate is 1:40 or 2.5%.

( 7 ) the amount is payable by either of these two methods:

( a ) the due amount in pure gold or silver by weight from from the wealth
liable to zakat or some other.

( b ) the due amount in paper currency or other value at exchange rates for
gold and silver on the day prescribed for zakat payment in the country where the property is held.

( 8 ) In paying the zakat on gold and silver, consideration should be given
to such criteria as weight, high or low quality as compared to the
natural prosperties of these metals, and to changes resulting from their
processing into coins or jewellery. zakat on gold and silver is based
upon their inherent characteristics as precious metals - disregarding
these criteria would improperly shift the original basis of the zakat tax
to their value as manufactured or processed articles.

Examples:
What is payable on the following property liable for zakat?
Example 1:
1,000 grams of gold ( above the exempted nisab =85 grams ) = 2.5% x 1,000 = 25 grams of gold.

Example 2: 1,000 grams of silver ( above the exampted nisab = 595 grams ) = 2.5% x 1,000 = 25 grams of silver

Donald@This.Was.Truly.A.BRILLANT.Find Thank you. Thank you. THANK YOU!

GUIDE TO ZAKAT
By Dr. Abdul-Satar Abu Qhodda
Rapporteur of the Juicial Body of Zakat House
http://www.zakathouse.org/guide/index.htm

My apologies to Dr. Abdul-Satar Abu Qhodda for so carelessly
neglecting to give attribution [and my thanks to the good doctor
for such a clear and thoughtful exposition on the subject of Zakat.]

MoReGoLd, Please why don`t you post the URL instead of paste.
I did , Donald did... we can save a lot of bandwith at Bart1s great delights.

What I meant by 'no return mechanisms' for EMU is simply
what I've seen stated somewhere, that supposing after the
EMU transition officially begins and parallel currencies,
both sovereign nation currencies and the Euro are circulating
on the way to transitional phaseout of national currencies,
should the Euro encounter difficulties due to domestic
concerns, I've read that there is no 'fallback' or reversion
mechanisms in the EMU arrangement to restore national
currencies.

The glaring flaw that I see is, here in the US of A
if the Texas or Colorado oilpatch fails for a time, and
Detroit automaking is hot biz, there's labor migration
to take advantage of existing opportunity/necessity.
I don't expect that if Sweden is hot and Italy not,
Italians would be realistically prone to emigrating
to Sweden for 'balance'. Thus, in my opinion, domestic
concerns are and can only be of primacy, creating
tensions and dissensions within the EMU should it come
to pass, and no road at present back to what presently is
serving as currencies.

Greek 'arete' ( classical Adonis, ideal, virtue, courage )

From Sanscrit 'rta' - first order

From underlying Proto-Indo-European ( PIE ) root morpheme-- 'rt'


Latter day derivatives-- arithmetic, aristocracy, artist, rhetoric, worth, wright, right, righthanded, art


Mr. Green in the library, checking out.

Source, amongst others, author Robert Pirsig's 1992 'Lila: An Inquiry into Values' which fell
published with a resounding silent thud. His second book, a dozen years or so after his
popular first book, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance.


Possibly germane.

related to my post below I should mention that I'm looking at daily charts.
sorry for the omission.

I believe I'm in the "other" camp- nice job anyway, showed a lot of thought and effort. I just find it hard to understand that one of "simple thoughts" can not seem to be clear in what is said, except the part about buying physical, which I agree with. Again, nice effort. Tom

Financial radio talk show yesterday. This guy charges $500 per month for his letter & is well worth it judging by his intermediate term calls. He went short on oil 8-9 months ago & anyone who followed that reco made a fortune. He is now flat & thinks it will avg 14-15 for 6-12 months.

Japan & Asia--Very negative on Japan & thinks that the $U.S. could get as high as 170 Yen in the next year. He feels that they are really on the ropes & have no choice but to try to export their way out of their morass.
He is fairly positive on Korea & thinks that they will be well on the way to recovery within a year. Of the other Countries he's most negative on Indonesia because of the ingrained corruption.

Likes the $C & thinks it could get to parity in 10 yrs.

PMs-Thinks that AU will remaim under a lot of pressure because of CBs, but positive on AG because of copper mines being closed.

You save me hours and hours with you posts. Thank you, thank you. Tom

http://www.webpage.com:80/hindu/daily/980318/06/06180004.htm

This will be a great chance to sell the news. Venezuela has never kept their word & it's highly unlikely that they will this time.

http://www.drudgereport.com/drudge.htm

.

Regarding "no return mechanisms" for EMU - just looked papers, You are right. Participation in EMU is a definite decision. In case of wrong doing ( high deficit, etc. ) there could be some sanctions against member of EMU. Last document on this subject, known to me is "Resolution of the European Council on the Stability and Growth Pact". I can post English text, if it is interesting.
Back to Duisenberg - Trichet story - I do not believe, that Trichet has any chance, no matter how good the introduction was done. Duisenberg is currently a head of EMI and seen by majority as "natural" first candidate. Holland will not cancel his candidature. If problem will not be solved before meeting in May, then they will vote, and both candidates will be excepted - al 15 voices are needed. If vote will give significant majority to Duisenberg, he may decide to participate in second round if it will be unclear situation - withdraw himself. Of course, nobody knows what exactly is going to happened in the future, so all - IMHO

I'm sure your others ( credit card applications ) are in the mail. :^ ) but I double checked and my wife told me that since I'd not read the previous day's mail she'd just put it all together; she believed two of the credit card offers were from the day before. So you can try to beat my amended record of three in one day or five in two days.

It is frightening though that recently I've seen several credit offers among our circle of friends addressed to minor children and one to our house addressed to our dog! You know that when this sort of thing starts to happen, particularly when the rate of bankruptcies is so high there must be trouble.

Thank you for your kind words. The only reason I posted what I thought ANOTHER said and my interpretation was because I thought many found him hard to understand and the many derogatory remarks being said about him. This may be because he is of ME origin and expresses himself differently than we in the west. I for one do not want to chase him away as some seem to be trying to do. I still do not know if my remarks are as ANOTHER intended. The only thing I found distasteful was that several were intentionally trying to say that he said the price of gold would rise in 5 to 10 days. THIS IS NOT TRUE!!! He has spoken of this range for quite a while in previous posts. It' an excuse to put him down. The easiest thing in the world to do is demean someone as an ego boost. As I stated in the post, everyone has the free will to accept or reject, or at least give others a chance to express thier opinions. What is lead to one may be gold to ANOTHER.
One thing I do know, he makes one think a little more deeply, and that can not be a bad thing.

Ooops, have I mixed You with SDRer? Sorry in this case, the subject was the same...

both famous and the little known,he reveals
the inside story of the revolution that has
stripped governments of thier power to
control money.

Today,traders have taken the law into
thier own hands.Like vigilante,they enforce
fundamental economic laws not for love of law
but for profit,regardless of what regulators
or central bankers think.

The new financial vigilantes move more
than $1 trillion every day,in currency
alone....more than all the
cars,wheat,oil,gold and other products traded
in the so called"real" economy.

In a nut shell forget trying to predect
market action,charts graphs,signs,crystal
balls..etc...traders care less for the
politics,whats right or wrong,interbank
market traders make their money in the same
place as floor traders between almost and
immediately, ( spread ) the facts be of little
use,its the action stuped

Hi, your reply appreciated

I listened to your radio program the other day. Enjoyed it very much. Hope you push Rush to the back burner. Regarding your last post, I wonder what the Hunt Bros. would think?

If you can come up with and market platinum alloys with color anywhere in the range between warm yellow, melon orange and rose pink you'll assure them to be much more popular. With its greyish, bluish cast, platinum hasn't the instant eye appeal of even copper/brass costume jewelry. I think gold looks better the vast majority of women although platinum does look good on a small minority of very, very dark women. Then there's always the problem of fear it will be mistaken for silver... IMHO

Since the study of trends in use of the metals in jewelry is unavoidable to the fundamentalist I thought this worth pondering over on such a slow and lazy Sunday. Particularly when the warming weather is bringing out so many interesting combinations of material to study, down at the Plaza. ;^ )

Big brother gets PO'D when you play in his sand box,Publishers Clearing House just got nailed for doing what every State does,YOU TO CAN BECOME A MILLIONARE,Michael Milken,evil junk bonds, he did, what they do only smarter,what happened to the American Dream,REWARD SUCCESS,seems we now punish achivement,Milken,Keating,Bill Gates......

Amen

1. Who were the prime movers of the Tulip Mania?

2. How many Belgians make their livelihood both directly and indirectly as a result of the presence of the EU headquartered in that country? Hell they already have given up their sovereignty.

3. As for big tonnes to strike the new millenium gold coin; how many years will it take to sell them, especially when considering the smeer campaign that has ruined golds image? Better the miners consider paying their employee and suppliers in gold coin/slugs, not all will return to the supply pipeline.

4. The latest oil agreement is great if it holds up, but like that the non OPEC producers will take part.

5. blablablablablabla

The whole EMU story is to big to be 100% ready now or any time after. There will always be difference between countries involved, in their approach, own interests, etc. not to mention "natural" difference in language, culture, etc. In is very natural, that everyone tries to get the best conditions for own country while its possible. In fact it is more political decision, but with strong economic background. But there are pluses too. According to Dutch forecast, initial cost of implementing EURO in Holland ( about NLG 5.5 B ) will be covered in 2 years. In fact, if there will be a decision to postpone EMU now, uncertainty will be a big damage to economy, not to mention damaged faces of some politicians.

GOLD
London: US$292.15 an ounce-- ( +US$0.30 )
Hong Kong:HK$2,689 per tael ( -HK$4 )

Delphi--Thank you for the input!

Kuston, Let's talk about what you know about this. What kind of terms are set in these deals? Specificly is it gold at spot for oil at spot? Or is it like Another's scenario, oil for fractions of gold ( take less gold than the gold spot price would indicate ) ?

Do you have any examples or could you get your friends to tell you a few tales and then drop us a line. Much appreciated, compadre!

"seems we now punish achivement,Milken,Keating,Bill
Gates......"
Junk Bonds, Crook, Junk Software......

I hope you are kidding?

HighRise

The tone and temper of this weekend at kitco has my Kitco Kasualty Indicator ( KKI ) at an all time low. This is an inverse indicator. When casualness ( kasualness ) at kitco is high, recipes, jokes, old army stories abound. Folks get very philosophical, talk about gluons, and black holes, and expanding entropies n' stuff ( I don't understand any of it, but I decided the next time a black hole came up I'd look into it ) . Also there's lots of back and forth about the best combat weapons, rifles, shotguns, canned meat ( peas for the vegetarians ) , stuff like that. Saturday started out with a lot of talk about entropy ( not one of my favorite subjects, but I can empathize with the concept by the end of the day after a martini and dinner ) , but that kind of subsided like...well...entropy. Things got progressively serious until we're now hot n' heavy with rancor and attacks over Another, observations about a new bullion issue marketing campaign, lots of tech analysis peppered in, and even talk about Belgians. Now this OPEC oil agreement ( Yeah, right! ) brings another serious increment ( excrement? ) to the table. With the seriousness and on-topicality so high, it is likely that investors are going to go out into the markets Monday with a chip on their shoulder, something to prove, or enlightened inspiration having been exposed to such serious and substantial talk at kitco today. There will be action ahead this week because of this, instead of gold investors just milling around with hangovers after a weekend of talk about beer, vodka, pickles, porkchops, and black beans. Thank God Ted has more sense left in him than everyone else, and is a rock of Gibraltar in the face of this. A lesser man would be germane by now ( or is that Belgian? ) . Come to think of it, it's almost dinner time. Where did I put that bottle of vodka and that jar of olives?

Jiang grooms rising star for military role
New Vice-President Hu Jintao is being considered for a senior post in the Army's policy-setting body

Mike Sheller--I'm a big fan of your thoughts, your humor, your humanity--
so you can IMAGINE my GREAT distress when you mention a vodka martini!
Please Sir, reconsider. There is much involved here. Tradition. Taste.
I shall be forced to splice the mainbrace way before time ( the shock
you know ) . No matter-- as Robert Benchley is said to have remarked, "It's 5 in the evening SOMEWHERE! Off for a medicinal tipple. {:- )

Jiang grooms rising star for military role
New Vice-President Hu Jintao is being considered for a senior post in the Army's policy-setting body

Mike Sheller@Vodka.What! I appreciate your analysis,your humor, your humanity--so you can IMAGINE my GREAT distress when you mention a vodka martini!

Please sirrah, We traditionalists ask that you reconsider. There is
much involved here. Tradition. Taste. Shake or Stir. Olive or Twist.
Perhaps this is too heavy for a lazy Sunday afternoon...
I shall be forced to splice the mainbrace way before time ( the shock
you know ) . No matter-- as Robert Benchley is said to have remarked, "It's 5 in the evening SOMEWHERE! Off for a medicinal tipple. {:- )

Thank you God for 1 ) a spouse that never said no to just one more coin purchase and then one more; 2 ) for gold under US$300 ( but not for to long ) ; 3 ) for the stock market not crashing before I got out; 4 ) for my contracts being in June and December; 5 ) for healthy children; and, most of all, 6 ) for waking up this morning-the alternative isn't good. My life could always be worse, thank you God for not making it so. Tom P.S. I re-read Kitco's netiquette rules, not a bad idea to do- ALL. P.P.S. Will not mention some of my mistakes and bad calls-not enough time or room.

Camel's milk does not curdle.

HighRise

Rigorous Statement from Commanders
Following the three hour meeting that the Chiefs of Staff held yesterday a five-item declaration was published. Commanders
repeat their respect for the constitution and democracy and that
they have no intention to govern. However, they claim it is their legal duty to fight against seperatist and reactionary movements.
Dnya Newspaper

I shall repair, forthwith, to the apothecary ( local liquor store ) and purchase a bottle of Bombay Sapphire! Thank you for bringing me to my senses.

Why do I get the feeling I'm not alone? I need a return of 8% to be on track and I'm not getting it. I know I've discussed this, but the question of selling the Resource fund and the PM fund and buying a Equity fund bothers me. Are these sectors going to come back with a vengence or not. The Millenium Coin sounds like Gold producers are desperate to find a new market to devour all the extra gold kicking around.

Your statement that ANOTHER, "makes one think a little more deeply, and that cannot be a bad thing", is very well put Sir. I wonder, is this why he labels his posts "THOUGHTS", do you think? Your analysis was much appreciated by me - you put much "thought" into it - THANK YOU.

I too hope ANOTHER continues to post here and does not get chased away. Bart Kitner has created a DISCUSSION GROUP here and ANOTHER's posts on gold and oil ( valid topics ) do stimulate discussion, do they not?

I very much appreciate ANOTHER's most gracious manner, something we all could learn from, do you agree?

Respectfully,


The Hermit

I can't find a word about it. Have you noticed anything?

All--sorry about the double post. I only clicked the wretched button ONCE!

High Rise, Mike Sheller, all Kitcoites: I do not understand all of the dissention around ANOTHER. He should be allowed to post like anyone else, and the most effective way to fill the airways with unnecessary posts is to do what is being done!

Has anyone noticed that ANOTHER at least tolerates our posts without comment? Are we to behave in a less civilized manner regardless of his origins or the accuracy of his posts? I think that we should all accept him as a fellow poster, and take his input like we take any input at this site -- with caution until confirmed. I was impressed when one time he said the very same thing about his own posts!

I must admit that I do not agree with many of ANOTHER's posts, but he has made me think -- I now understand the LBMA much better, and I see how the two tier system might evolve, which is probably much the same as the 'oil for gold' argument.

I look forward to hearing from one of us who states that the 'oil for gold' system has been around for years. Also -- I would like to know more about those times in our history when misguided Governments insisted on tightly regulating the purchase and sale of key commodities -- leading to distortion of the markets and occasionally 'two-tier' systems. I certainly don't know all I could now about the time the US 'two tier' gold system collapsed in the 70's. Apparently the world's major countries were all supporting the US dollar by selling gold ( cartel? ) for a time to foreign investors only -- until it fell apart.

Since we are at the end of a CB gold-selling gold bear, I think our discussions would be better served focusing on the historical ends of other gold bears.

The Hermit: I can not see any harm in thinking from a different perspective.

I have many times been stymied by physics experiments that did not work the way I thought they should, or worked as expected -- but I missed somthing subtle that was far more important than all previous work. I found discussions of the physical phenomena with others having a totally different perspective where highly rewarding. In fact -- the more divergent the background of the other conversant -- the more rewarding.

In recent days the conflicting information regarding PM's is often more discouraging than it is encouraging...and frequently confusing. Some of us have made the right decisions at the wrong time, and have lost; yet we keep hoping and hoping.

Will gold go up...or down? Will it stay flat? ...and what about silver and platinum? And what about the words of ANOTHER? ( I enjoy his/her posts. ) Recently someone gave me a pun-filled response to the questions:

"Gold will go up when Russia cooks Turkey on Greece and serves it on China to the Hungary USA, unless people Rush into Limbo and drink Canada Dry, in which case they will need hot French wine to keep from getting Chili in the land down under." I'll admit that I found it funny ( or punny ) ... Perhaps by passing it on, the humor might lighten up others on this newsgroup that often feel to heavily weighted with metals that should be going up when they are going down. Sometimes it helps me to laugh when I feel like crying.

If that doesn't confuse you, then you're doing good!

--Skip

Pete Talk about ego ---Your post regarding a has rendered my posts ( hard disk wise ) frivolous for the last two years. What a front man for a group of boiler boys. Away for some proteolytic enzymes and a touch of selenium .

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980320/turkey_gov_1.html

In another post, Greece accuses Turkey of violating Greek airspace. I think we need to watch Turkey, Algeria ( and Egypt? ) very carefully because of the moslem majority -- suppressed by a non democratic minority rule. A financial collapse -- such as the one that seems to be evolving in Turkey -- will only add fuel to the fire.

To all:

Friday was a pretty good day. Some of the junior producing gold stocks bottomed along with gold on Wednesday and seemed to have gotten a head start to the upside.
Bema Gold has run up C$.30 the past two days from C$2.70 to C$3.00. Western Copper, while not a gold stock but one I mentioned Wednesday night as a stock that had been knocked down because of inaccurate info in the Vancouver Sun, has rebounded from a low of C$6.00 on Wednesday morning to close at C$8.35 on Friday. I said it should go to C$20 on Wednesday and still believe it, although not in a straight line.

Has oil bottomed and begun a rebound? Let me suggest you look into Denison Mines Ltd. ( DEN:Toronto, C$29 ) . This small oil producer used to be a major corporation in Canada with a share price of C$20.00. Still has its full compliment of 318 million shares out. DEN is now on the rebound. Should enter uranium production by year's end with COGEMA, the large French uranium producer. Higher oil prices and the drive toward uranium production will bring nothing but higher DEN prices.

Bully Beef wants more than 8%. I'm not sure if that's quarterly or annually. Let me suggest, Mr. BB, Lyndex Explorations ( LYDX:Canadian Dealer Network, C$.28 ) . It's up 40% for the year so far, holds a multimillion ounce gold deposit in Spain, and will appreciate rapidly with a runup in the gold price. Last year's exploration program was spectacular and the only drill results I have seen better in the 90s were from Arequippa. ( If anyone thinks that is an overstatement, please look up the press releases and read the assays -- 518 ft. of .18 OPT, 716 ft. of .107 OPT, 431 ft. of .289 OPT, etc )
With a higher gold price we should see another round of drilling and if success can be struck like last year, this stock could move to C$1.25 with gold at $350. An 8% return will be no problem with LYDX, provided we have an upmove in the gold price.

I'm looking for the gold breakout this week. It's running three weeks behind my schedule -- which shows just how closely gold listens to me. APH and others said they wanted to see silver above $6.00 before they were comfortable calling Thursday's bottom THE bottom. We now have that. Gold and the XAU played possum on Thursday and Friday after bottoming on Wednesday. The sharp rise in Bema, whch has no reason to rally absent higher gold prices, tells me IT'S HERE!, as Farfel would say.

Good trading,

The Preacher

All: Does anyone know who I can painlessly convert my Pentium 75 to Windows 95 or NT from WFW 3.1? I am interested in some sort of diagnostics program that I can run, while still running on the old system ( WFW ) , so that I know I have all necessary drivers available -- CD rom, video, tape drive, printer, etc.

If there is nothing suitable, I may just use something like 'partition magic' so that I can still access the old system if necessary.

Thanks in advance from the computer literate out there.

The price of Denison Mines is C$.29, not C$29.
29 cents not 29 dollars.

The Preacher

Skip--Another "A time when men, such as I" Ergo: relax, use "he", which
is accurate, correct AND PC! {:- ) )

JTF: Turkey--yes! Something is in the air...ever since they robbed
the Murabitan of 15.9 trillion TL, there has been 'unrest'.
Are you going with W95 or NT? I'm about to change-over and would be
interested in your choice. Thanks!

Preacher: Thanks for some good news to stir everyone up! The one I liked best a few days ago is the one where the Belgian CB went out of its way to state that it sold to other ( european? ) CB's -- and not just anyone! That is as close to an outright admission of a CB gold purchase I think we can can expect for some time. First one I can remember in years!

http://www.ecofinyork.com/whatsnew/main2.html

Is wfw3.1 Windows version 3.1? If so, use the upgrade vers of Windows 95 and install following directions. BE SURE TO BACKUP YOUR ENTIRE DISK FIRST! If something goes awry, you can always uninstall Windows 95 from the control panel and on to install new software icon. You will see programs listed that can be uninstalled, namely windows 95.

GOOD LUCK, I really hate MSFT. My Daughter and Son in law are both graphic artists and they use MACS which are far superior as far as operating systems go.

In my opinion, if you are planning to buy Gold and Silver stocks, purchase high quality stocks such as the seniors on the Toronto, NY and American stocks exchange. In every study that I saw,high quality stocks always perform much better that the juniors in a bull market.

It is the endless blathering and repetition by the rest here that becomes tedious. Is anyone really buying that cutsie little, "yes?" at the end of his posts? The trouble with a farce is that the players affectations ultimately trip them up. His posts take up very little bandwidth, the endless posturing of his disciples fills these pages with naught but yammering.

This said, I remove myself for all time from any discussion regarding ANOTHER, yes?

http://www.economeister.com/archive/960604ca/euemu_pe.htm

1.Gold is not going up because at this time
nobody purchases large quantites of gold
on the open market. These are all special
out-of-the market arrangements between
sellers and buyers..

2.Gold is down because the only active participants
in the open market are ( were ) short sellers,
operating under the cover of publically available
information regarding this mainly out-of-the market
sales ( and purchases, which seem to be "secondary"
to sales at this time )

3. Gold will start moving up when....should I continue?

http://netec.wustl.edu/BibEc/data/ftheeccou.html

SDRer: NT is the more robust system, but I already have Win 95 installed on one computer -- so it is free. Will probably start with that. Neither system appeals to me because I do not like the feeling of inaccessibility to the operating system -- and the relative lack of documentation relative to DOS. I much prefer DOS where I could see what I was getting -- and actually program what I wanted. But -- WFW 3.1 crashes all the time when I am on the net, randomly destroying files unbenownst to me, and I prefer the memory access, 32bit software, and graphics to DOS. Hopefully I will find some software that will let me access the operating system with Win 95 or NT - there is one, by the way! By the way, with these 'plug and play' systems -- it is possible to totally crash your computer so that nothing works -- as I found out once -- just installing a CD rom. My problem with just doing what Pete suggests is that I would like to know that I have all of the suitable drivers before I start -- rather than finding out hours later that all the work was unnecessary.

I think what I will do is use something like 'partition magic' so that I can go back to the old operating system at the click of a button. Hard disk space is now cheap. Much of my software is exotic -- and may not work with Win 95 -- or especially NT.

223 -

The Japanese, it is said, believe platinum goes better with their complexion than gold, ergo 80% of all platinum jewelry is sold to Japanese. I prefer gold jewelry. Saw a cutie at the beach today with a gold waist chain. This is behavior to be encouraged.

Sheller -

Don't let 'em talk you out of it. The vodka martini has a noble tradition. Beware though, the mixture can be entirely entropic.

Exactly! Well said, Sir.

RJ, your comments are especially important to us, as they are practical and easy to understand. As I think I have said before, I value your posts more highly than that of ANOTHERS, as your posts generate a much higher information content to word content ratio.

Have you got a mome page on this? Thanx

I echo the sentiments in JTF's post of 19:20. As an investor in the physical metals ( coins ) , I appreciate very much the highly practical aspects of your posts. I try to learn something from all of the posters here at Kitco.

Thank you for your posts!

Sincerely,


The Hermit

I suppose that if one wishes to not contribute to 'wasted bandwidth' regarding a topic the best idea is to pass it by. I do appreciate your posts and expertise. Hope to hearabout your killer deals et al as time progresses. Go Plat! Go Sil! Go go!

Good night, "yes"?

Yes. Se everyone tomorrow.

What does the sale of RMC with a guarantee say ----Over supply of Gold with no real demand. I purchased some from Kitco because of virtually no downside risk .I am now ready to purchase some platinum coins or wafers which is a risk .I do like the long term charts. -----Regarding another ---The casket is closed and the brain is dead ---Away to never speak of another or his disciples again.

RJ: Would have loved to see the young lady with the waist gold chain, and the bikini. Must have been expensive -- the gold chain, I mean, given more to go around than a neck. I do miss California at times -- the flora and cliffs on Route 1, Mt Shasta, Mt Lassen, Pt Reyes, Mendocino -- and the fauna on the sunny beaches -- but I don't miss the LA traffic.

Will the Europeon CB's sell huge amounts of gold -only if the price is very high. I doubt much,if any,real "sales" will occur. If you are a Westerner and want to sell something and you effectively contol the price you RAISE the price prior to the sale. If you wish to BUY that something you LOWER the price. If you have to submit a financial statement ( EURO ) at some point in time you assure your assets are at their highest value if you have that capability. Open your minds eye-see what is before you. Gold sales by Europeon CB's are not an issue. This has merely been a ploy to surpress the price of gold. Watch as the Euro time frames roll on what happens to the price and value of gold. IMHO Tom

Ted --Juno Awards on now

chas,

Sorry, there's no home page. CEO is from the old school. Assay results are available from some services. I use Canstock, which is a paid service. Stockwatch also has them. Here is the url. If this doesn't work, just go to stockwatch and look up lydx and navigate it from there.

http://wwwf.canada-stockwatch.com:80/cgi-shl/dbml.exe?template=/sw/Bull&what=search&how=symbol&symbol=LYDX&date1=19970322&date2=19980322

Best of luck.

The Preacher

It has been a very long time since i have seen Gold open on a strong note in Australia. Could this be an indicator that we may have a positive week? Lets hope so, watching Gold recently has been like watching paint dry!

Mr. Preacher- I sure do like your Sunday night message! Dad gum,
dad gum, take that and that and that Jeil!

Can't wait for Mr. Another to give us more of his GOOD WORD!

Tally Ho

Emu qualification: Germany opens door to high-debt countries

MONDAY MARCH 23 1998
By Lionel Barber in London and Wolfgang Mnchau in York

Germany has given a decisive signal that it is ready to support the inclusion of high-debt countries, notably Italy, as founder members of European economic and monetary union.

At a weekend meeting of European Union finance ministers in York, Theo Waigel, German finance minister, unveiled a five-point plan to accelerate debt reduction and tighten budgetary discipline among the likely Emu-bloc countries.

The plan is intended to reassure a German public that remains nervous about giving up the D-Mark. However, a survey by the country's chambers of industry and trade today suggests that 54 per cent of companies believe the euro's introduction is both "probable and desirable". That compares with 39 per cent a year ago and only nine per cent in 1995.
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q3ee8e.htm

Good article in this weeks Barron's on the death of gold. If you're a goldbug , it is a ray of hope. I hope the Preacher is right about a decent move in gold this week--as the Lipper gold fund index has also shown some strength.

Tom

Your URL gave me a cookie. I tried all of my CDN sources, No luck. Anything else possible? If not thanx anyway.

Oil is up to $16/barrel.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980322/markets bo 1.html

small busness the tools,i.e. MCI would not be employing thousands and making millions for share holders,plus giving you internet access if it were not for Junk Bonds,and if you checked lately,the current darling of Wall Street is Junk Bonds. Keating,took what the government gave him,and ran with it,you should be asking about the Keating 5 before you condem Charles As for Gates,the last time I checked I had a choice between going with his browser or netscape,I use Mac so I don't have a problem,IF I HAD WINDOWS AND WANTED NETSCAPE I COULD GET IT FOR FREE. With all due respect HighRise if you believe what government tells you then you also believe,that Waco,was justified,and the using of chemical weapons on children is ok IF YOU BELIEVE EVERTHING YOU READ YOU MAY AS WELL EAT EVERYTHING YOU SEE

To all:

Let's look at the charts once more.

Gold remains below its 100-day MA, now standing at $295.26. It won't take much of a push to get above that. The 200-day MA sits at $310.95 now. That's a little more formidable. We'll worry about that one later.
Also, gold has made a two-thirds retracement of its January upmove. It came off the bottom well from Wednesday, but has not been able to get going. Still, the price closed in the upper end of its trading range. And the evidence leads me to believe the next move is to the upside, not the downside.
On the daily chart, the stochastics have given a downside non-confirmation, with the price falling lower than on the last pullback but the stochastics remaining higher than on the last pullback.
I alluded to Bema in the last post. This same divergence showed up on the Bema chart three days ago. Bema has rallied strongly off the bottom. I'm looking for gold to do the same.

In the XAU, the retracement of the January upmove has only been 45.6%, well within the limits of a meaningful upmove. It has remained stronger than gold despite the action of the past two trading days.
The current price is 71.21 and the 100-day MA sits at 73.92. It won't take much.
Unlike gold, the XAU has held above its Feb. low and I look for a rally to begin immediately, or soon thereafter.

If gold falls below last week's low of $286.45, then I'd say we're in trouble. If not, then we're in business.

JP made the observation that studies he has seen show that the seniors outperform the juniors in a gold rally. On an overall basis that may be true, but for the best performing stocks of each group, I truly doubt that's true. Some of these juniors will triple on a move in gold to $340. I am willing to bet, and already have, that Lyndex Explorations will far outperform Barrick Gold or Placer Dome on a move in gold to $320. In fact, Lyndex could outperform both of them put together. Let's hope gold goes to $320 so we can give it a test, yes?

Good trading,

The Preacher

1. All countries to correct unexpected budgetary shortfalls in the current year and use windfall surpluses for debt repayment.

2. All euro zone countries to co-operate on their 1999 budgets.

3. All countries to enforce the Stability Pact from May 2.

4. Accelerated debt reduction for all Emu-bloc members.

5. Countries to reduce the amount of short-term borrowing as a proportion of debt. [Spain & Belgian have already been at the 30yr Euro-bond trough;
which probably doesn't count because it is in Euros--what a system!]

Donald, thanks yet again.Bet you could find gold at the bottom of
my pool! [I found the divergent tone of the articles interesting. FT
was quite upbeat--standing alone!

I've been watching LYDX for a while. Some of the writers like it. Could be a good one. I did well on Arequipa and I feel that Chesbar ( CBI/MSE ) will be my next big hit. Another great stock is Orvana ( ORV/TSE ) which has all the ingredient and it is hugely undervalued. It is held by the Royal Bank's Precious Metals Fund. It is a four banger minimum once gold decides to breath a little heavier. It's at an all time buy. Look it up and you'll find all the info you need. Might get some Lyndex soon. Good luck.

Thanks for the posts on the EMU and Euro etc. Some of my info was dated and your posts are spot on.

On Friday evening newscast {SF] account that BofA was been investigated
by FBI for improper accounting of various muni-bond interest payments.
Havent heard a peep since then, but I havent been paying much attention either.

RJ--I too, very much enjoy your posts. So it is with deep regret I must disagree with your martini stand. A martini IS gin [which has been stored facing a bottle of superior vermouth].

Speed--Very Good! {:- )

May Silver - If you're long from 5.60 and want to trade the market try selling at 6.30 and wait for a pullback to 6.00 to re enter. 6.00 should hold if not the move up from 5.60 maybe retraced. April Gold is still under pressure, buy under 285 use a 3 dollar or more stop. XAU looks weak look for it to retest the lows in the low 60's. Buy ABX at $15.00 or less on a spike down.

LONDON, March 22 ( UPI ) A key Swiss Bank Corporation official says the world's largest gold mining companies are planning a coin that could seriously enhance the demand for gold.



The senior SBC gold division director, Oliver Baring, says in Britain's Sunday Times, "Our initial calculations take aim at potential sales of the coin at substantially above 1,000 tons."



He speculates that sales could even exceed 2,500 tons.



Gold mining and marketing industry executives confirm that what's being planned is a global millennium coin that could dramatically alter the supply-demand balance.



The project, as described in Sunday Times, is led by Canada's Barrick Gold, and contemplates a major selling campaign.



The newspaper reports those behind the plan say they hope to sell as many millennium coins as the mighty South African Krugerrand sold.



Krugerrand sales have totaled more than 1,400 tons.



News reports said initial proposals would establish a marketing and coordinating Millennium Gold Company, with a promotional budget close to the yearly $200 million behind the De Beers recent diamond push.



Backed by a contemplated advertising budget of more than $150 million, the millennium coin is being created to offset depressed worldwide gold sales and the effects of the south-east Asian crisis.



In London, central bank gold sales hit 825 tons last year.



The gold price closed in London on Friday at $291.70, down from more than $400 less than three years ago.



Among the companies involved in the plan, are the Anglo American Corporation of South Africa and the world's largest gold producer, Newmont and Placer Dome. Swiss Bank Corporation in London is coordinating creation of the coin.

Riyadh oil pact could hurt U.S. bonds
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980322/markets_bo_1.html

May be good for Gold. I hate to say this, but the 5-10 days were just up - Friday right.

HighRise

chas,

I put together some excerpts from LYDX press releases. I don't want to put them out on Kitco. I'll have them on a web site within an hour. Hang around and I'll post the link.

Winston,
Thanks for the info on these companies. I'll check them out.

The Preacher

I was just about to ask you about your take on silver. My next question is are you still anticipating a drop on the S&P and if by how much and in what time frame? Is it time for the Wolanchuk drop to 8400? Looking forward to hearing from you, thanks.

They have to many share issued, but are cheap in price, I didn't read any further. I thought I'd check them out, heres about 11 releases ( ? )
http://www.newswire.ca/cgi-bin/view.cgi?OKEY=OR-22041

It sounds like a great gift to give for the new millenium. $200 million advertising campagn.
I would also mint many versions, maybe with the likenesses of historic
figures etc, to attract collector demand.
Sounds like they have a good project if its planned right.
I heard CAMDESSUS doesn't like the idea though.

chas,

Here is a crude piece of work.

http://www.mindspring.com/~dennisw/lydx.htm

The Preacher

Thanx for the tip ,however I must admit I need a positive move before I do anything. I am " How would you say?"...Fully Exposed at this point. I am investing for my retirement. 8% per annum to me is my goal. I was doing fine in the one fund ( resource ) until this fall. It was not as remarkable as some people's equity funds. The PM I bought on the way down figuring on a comeback that hasn't happened. I was hoping for exponential growth. I will follow up your tip and I like the technical approach although I haven't got the patience to do it myself. People who use it seem sensible and I have seen it work. ( The last gold rally in dec. was forecast buy a guy on PURECHAT Tech. Analy. I prefer to talk fundamentals because it suits my natural instinct to Bulls$%&.Informed bull however.
The Reverend Preach and his lost followers.

I tuned in on CNN - "70 years of Gold"

Dumb me, It was about the Oscars.

I should have known - no one talks about Gold the real stuff.

HighRise

Thanx a lot. I've got it now. AWAY to the hills.

Thanks. I would really like to see a challenge of that 660 level. it seems the risk is more time related than price related here. by which i mean that the abc down was fairly short in time. if we are going up again, we should go right on up now. the question is whether this will be the third wave now or wave B of the correction. but in either case the rally should be a good one or else the correction has much longer to go in time.

I asked David Foster if he would join us on Kitco for a Question and Answer period after the Juno Awards be he refused .He said Until Kitco can get their hard disk space up to 20 gigabits it would be a waste of time  Sorry Bart I tried.

I think this backbiting and fighting and taking sides has got to stop. Everyone thinks only THEY see the real scoop, have the right formula. But we all have our prejudices and should be a little more tolerant of each other ( except for Tolerant, who already is, no matter what he says, unless you happen to be a government ) . I'm talking, of course, about Martinis. If the truth be known, "purists," a REAL Martini is made 4 parts gin to 1 part Dry Vermouth. Yes...that's a full 25% vermouth! Now that you've finished gagging, tell me who among you out there EVER has a REAL Martini? Not Moi, certainly. So please be patient and understanding of such granted aberrations as vodka Martinis, Martinis made from Gin stored near vermouth, Martinis made from cheap gin , Vermouth bottles merely opened and swiftly closed in the next room, or down the street, etc, etc. They may all have their wonderful qualities to recommend them, but they are NOT true Martinis. And, truth be known, they do not have to be. In the summer, actually, I often go outside to the front lawn and pluck a berry from one of my 2 juniper bushes ( just happened to be there when we bought the house ) and crush it between thumb & forefinger, dropping it into the shaker with my vodka. Sort of a down home Martini, I guess. That should satisfy everyone, I should think. Now, if you please, you may all go back to picking on Another. But leave the Martini alone, for all our sakes.

If you are going to install a new OS on your computer, either Win95 or NT, consider formatting your hard drive during the installation and re-installing everything from scratch. If you try to install on top of an old OS, Windows will sometimes give you problems. Just make sure you have all programs, data, and drivers you need on floppy, especially special drivers like your SCSSI adapter driver if you have a SCSSI card. Note that the new OS will have many of the drivers you need built in, and the built in ones seem to give less trouble. Also, prepare to spend lots of time getting everything back the way you want it.

Question, how do I convince someone that the stock market is not a sure thing? My Mother and her husband just retired and have about 90% of their retirement in stocks. I have been e-mailing them posts from this site and information about Y2K, but they do not think they will be hurt by a correction. I even sent my Mom an ounce of gold for her birthday as a hint. Am I crazy to think that 1999 might be a REALLY bad year?

For what it is worth, DeBeers has made statements to the effect of "no more free rides"; meaning they do not want to advertise and defend the market prices while other producers undercut them. The Canadian rough will be marketed this year outside the cartel. Australia and Angola have gone their own way and Russia continues to leak rough outside the CSO.

Toward this end, they are planning to market branded DeBeers diamonds with a "watermark" which will be read with special equipment.

It sounds to me like DeBeers is planning on letting the market find it's own equilibrium. What I mean is that DeBeers must be looking down the road to a FREE MARKET for diamonds based on global supply and demand. No longer will they advertise to build up the entire diamond market to the benefit of RECOGNIZED COMPETITORS.

Branding would not be necessary in a monopoly.

Branding. What will the DeBeers brand represent? It is not enough to be a brand. Will DeBeers represent quality? It cannot because DeBeers handles all qualities. Will DeBeers diamonds be cut by DeBeers and "certified"? If you have two equally cut and equally graded diamonds and one has a DeBeers watermark and the other has a GIA certificate, for the same price which would most consumers buy? A "certified" diamond has more information for the consumer.

Maybe a DeBeers diamond will be a guarantee of genuineness, non-laser, and non-clarity enhanced. But then a DeBeers diamond could be lasered and clarity enhanced post watermark.

Synthetics. Maybe DeBeers knows that synthetics are very near. If this is the case and they have not really developed a "black box" as they have promised then they may flood the market with their stockpiles and differentiate genuine from synthetic with their watermark. This would be a good exit strategy from a crumbling monopoly.

Monopoly. If DeBeers beats the drum of synthetics as they flood the market with their branded stones then they can maximize profits. Without this strategy they would depress the market by letting diamonds flow freely to market. I suspected long ago that their announcement of a synthetic "black box" was a confidence ploy.

Gold. How does this affect gold? You set diamonds in gold. I believe the jewelry industry will be in for a major shock in the next 20 years with a decrease in volume as the luster of gemstones continues to tarnish under enhancements and synthetics. Jewelry will still be worn but less so. Of course I am fully invested now, but it is a short to medium term position until the next gold rush when I will liquidate.

Things are a little red tonight.
http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi

HighRise

When I was in the service stationed in the South we made martinis in a half gallon pitcher, 1/4 dry Vermouth, 3/4 gin and a handful of olives, put in the freezer until cold and poured over ice. They were served in large iced tea tumblers, over cubed ice. If we ran short of tumblers we used pint fruit jars. I think that people who just wave the Vermouth over the glass must be drinking from those little bitty ( pardon ) sissy martini glasses.

We made gin and tonic for the wives using a 1 to 6 gin to tonic ratio, wedges of lime but didn't put them in the freezer as the women liked them watered down.

We had a flight surgeon at our base in the early 80's who'd been very long and heavily leveraged in silver during the runup. When he sold out at the top he had enough money to retire, so he joined the Air Force just for fun, to learn aerobatics in the jets.

Just buy a Mac and you don't have to go through all of that crap. Why do people put up with that junk?

HighRise

You're right. One of my pentium systems has Win95 installed over Win3.11
while the other has a formatted Win95 install. The former has always been problematic, especially the "Plug and PRAY" aspect. By copying Win95 into a separate directory before installing it, the two OS's can exist side-by-side, but I recommend against this method.

I would like to see 6.60 also. If it gaps over 6.30-6.35 on the opening we could see 6.60+, on the other hand if it trades up to 6.30 I think it will find resistance and trade back down.
If the June S&P has a hourly close below 1096 tomorrow we could have a sharp drop to 1065 or lower. This would only be temporary, the money managers are going to want to be fully invested by the end of the quarter to make their portfolios look good. They will buy on any dips

I remember an old formula they used to quote some years ago...100 minus a person's age equals the percentage of the prtfolio in common stocks. Thus a 60 year old would have 40% in stocks. Not that I believe in old formulas. IMHO

But then maybe they think they can time the market? Or maybe they have income stocks like utility companies and banks which they're using as a hedge instead of bonds? Are they planning to retire to a farm or have a hobby they develop into a business? Or are they planning for you to take care of them in the style to which they hope to become accustomed? IMHO

You know, I've seen 'way too many elders just run their bills up and leverage everything as far as it will go on the theory that you can't take it with you and they can't collect on your debts after you're dead. I used to think they were a minority, but then I realized that hedonism has been a cult in the US for a long time. If I were you, I'd just make sure that my state had a legal way for children to divorce themselves from their parent's bad debts. And I think that once a parent grows up and gets married they should have to move out on their own and make their own way in the world. IMHO

Microsoft products give a lot of problems and are not very intuitive, but they are the standard ( or the Monopoly ) . If it is this much trouble to update your operating system, imagine how difficult it will be to fix all the custom programs ever written to fix the Y2K date problem. I admit, dates are not critical to most programs, but have you ever seen some of that old COBOL code? It is a mess. After I realized that my old company had been calculating plant efficiency wrong for the last 20 years, I got a programmer to take a look at it. The efficiency calculation is actually fairly simple, but the program was so complex, and the D.P. department was so slow, it took months to get the problem fixed.

I was talking to a guy who writes software that updates mainframes on bill payments. He said that every system he has seen still uses a 2 digit date. The "fix" is to assume that any date from 00 to 50 is a 2000 date. Does this mean another Y2K bug in 2051? I am sure all the old software will be replaced by then...

I think the next 2 years will be a good time to have gold and cash.

It's been my experience in the gold market that rallies can start at almost any time. Just when all hope is gone and there is no apparent economic reason for gold to go up, surprise. Something out of the blue zips into the scene and changes the entire market attitude. It also happens on the top side, so its not about being optimistic or hoping.

A free flowing market tends to over-react in one direction if left alone and if not careful will over-extend to the point of rebound. On Friday, most gold stocks fell near Feb lows and they are now in a position for a bounce. All it takes is a little surprise that the market is overlooking.

You are so right about Plug and Pray!
I pray gold stays low for another week so I can buy more cheap.

Economist--Commodity Price Index
1990=100......................................Percent change on
..............Mar3.........Mar 10.........one month.....one year
Dollar Index
All items.........99.4..........98.6............-3.8.........-18.7
Food.........118.3.........116.7...........-20.0.........-16.2
Industrials
All...........82.9..........82.9...........-1.7..........-21.5
Nfa...........95.4..........95.6...........-3.4..........-23.5
Metals........75.3.........127.1...........-0.4..........-20.0

Sterling Index
All items....107.3.........107.4...........-4.6..........-20.4
Food.........127.8.........127.1...........-6.2..........-18.0
Industrials
All...........89.9..........90.3...........-2.6..........-23.1
Nfa..........103.0.........104.1...........-4.2..........-25.0
Metals........81.4..........82.0...........-1.3..........-21.6

SDR Index
All items.....99.9..........99.7..........-3.1..........-16.7
Food.........119.0.........117.9..........-4.7..........-14.2
Industrials
All...........83.4..........83.8..........-1.0..........-19.6
Nfa...........95.9..........96.6..........-2.7..........-21.6
Metals........75.8..........76.1..........+0.4..........-18.0

Gold
$ per oz....296.95.......294.83...........-1.8..........-16.0

Crude Oil North Sea Brent
$ per barrel.......14.03............13.03......-13.9..........-31.3

I had forgotton about that 100-age formula. I guess even if there is a crash, they will be okay. They do have everything paid for including the house, which is better than most. It is surprising that I am more conservative at 31 than they are at 60.

You Silverados out there, why does HL seem to lag the pack on silver moves. I own a bit more of it than I would like to admit. The same ratios that apply to gold stock vs physical gold in stock movements don't seem to apply here. Any Analysts care to comment?

No one answered me last night. Is it true that the M3 measure of money supply rose $430 Billion over the past 12 months? Is this not staggering?

Sure hope those credit card offers to your kids aren't pre-approved! And the dog, heh?

If I catch the phone number of that 125% home second mortgage offer the next time it's on the radio, I'll call them and get more information. Anyone remember the company's name? LGB are you out there tonight?

There was a good post recently on M3 may have been your answer - showed each month.

Yes it was $400+ billion

I thought I saved it, but have not found it.

HighRise

ANOTHER interpretation !! All:
Is has occurred to me, that the 5 to 10 day time frame that ANOTHER speaks of, may start from the time of the Belgian announcement ( 3 days ago ) , not the time of ANOTHER's posting. This would extend ANOTHER's window till April 3rd. There is nothing that specifies the baseline for the stopwatch. I say we give the Gentleman, ANOTHER round of consideration. IMHO


Date: Mon Mar 09 1998 07:55
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
ALL:

The purchase of large physical stocks of gold in Nov. did send a message to the CBs. They did begin slowdown of sales/easing. The "management tool of gold in the 90s" ( see Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 13:08 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253 ) is now to go into reverse! A large purchase, now, is sending another message, "bring gold back into $320 to $360 US$ range. We should see this in five to ten days. This will be a hard thing, as it may create a crush to cover. Let us watch this "new gold market", as it is not as before.
I will post later in march!

Gold for the good guysGMJ

Found it:

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 23:41
themissinglink ( M3 ) ID#373403:
Copyright  1998 themissinglink/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
1996.01 4626.9
1996.02 4658.8
1996.03 4692.3
1996.04 4710.2
1996.05 4739.3
1996.06 4764.3
1996.07 4783.6
1996.08 4801.7
1996.09 4832.1
1996.10 4867.1
1996.11 4894.2
1996.12 4935.5 $308.6 Billion in new money for FY1996
1997.01 4961.1
1997.02 4997.8
1997.03 5032.0
1997.04 5075.2
1997.05 5091.2
1997.06 5114.3
1997.07 5154.2
1997.08 5199.3
1997.09 5237.2
1997.10 5274.4
1997.11 5325.8
1997.12 5375.7 $414 Billion in new money for FY1997
1998.01 5423.7
1998.02 5462.2 $430.2 Billion in new money March thru February

Is this accurate? It is from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis website. This new
money was created and spent in addition to the government selling bonds to finance
deficit spending? How can this not have shown up as inflation? Did it all go into the
equities market and how?
_____________________________________
Really something to behold isn't it?

HighRise

Another, will you lay off the "cute" if RJ does?