TO TED: Thanks for the acknowledgement. A lot of people read this site and everyone, even under the guise of their handle, has to take responsibility for what they post. If you must make fun of a groups of people sharing a common background then pick on Antarcticans or the Toronto Maple Leafs.
I will continue some at 19:00cst. Will address some others thoughts/questions from past posts with this write. Also, questions for you.
thank you
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategic oil reserve at a glance Facts about the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve:
-Created in 1975 in a series of salt domes in Louisiana in response to
the 1970s oil crisis to moderate oil supplies and price spikes. Oil
reserves to be released in event of emergency supply shortage.
-Authorized for 1 billion barrels, but has never contained more than 591
million barrels. Current inventory, 563 million barrels.
-Last oil purchased in 1993. Average purchase price over the years,
$27.14, though much of it bought at $30 to $35 a barrel.
-About 28 million barrels of oil sold in last two years to pay for
reserve operation. Price ranged from $18 and $22 a barrel.
-Congress directed to sell enough oil in 1998 to pay $207 million to
operate reserve. Energy Department estimates selling price under current
market condition at $13 a barrel.
Bully Beef -
Am conspiring today to sell gold. Sorry.
And gold better git-off it's hind........uh huh.
And Ted better git outta Canada..........uh huh.
And Aurator better rethink his 'Best Wager' Auscar......it was most definitely D.A. and EB's wink battle that beat 'em all......uh huh. He has obviously not been to the Shrine......oh my.
And Old Gold better............oh well, some things are better left alone.............uh huh..........and don't change your story tomorrow to fit the moment.
away......$
?
aurator: Love your Auscars this AM! I will be glad to let that poster called 'noone' debate whether I am ANOTHER any time! Ever since your post months ago, I have tried to post 'no one's rather than 'noone's, but bad habits die slowly.
SDRer: Thanks for the ZPE post. I am slowly sifting throught the 'free energy' or equivalently 'zero point energy' web sites. I'm sorry to say that I sense something real in some of this, but so far I have not been able to quantify anything. It is tantalizing, but it does not put bread on the table. With regard to derivatives, I do agree with you that runaway derivatives trading is dangerous, even if much of it is due to 'fiat' currency instability. It is addictive, and appears on the surface to reduce risk. But - only if we have a quasi-steady state where the risk formulas work. My point was that a derivatives fiasco during market turmoil will have a mostly delayed -- not instant effect. The real risk to the markets is not the use of derivatives per se -- it is what happens months later when the losses are calculated, IMHO.
All: Gold. My assessment is that of D.A.'s in a nutshell. We have a long-term buy. But, as LGB said, and he has good common sense, the current gold rally will probably fizzle soon. We will have plenty of time to pile in. So, I am not buying more gold stocks -yet. I will wait for the next intermediate - term downswing. Also -- it will be interesting which dominates the price of oil -- the over production of oil pushing its price down -- or the pending fall in the US dollar. AG has no choice now but let the US dollar weaken, and that seems to be what the SEAsians, and the Europeans want as well!
away...to await the eventual/inevitable spike...but how low can it go~~~ ( ugh? ) ..... ( ohmy? ) ..... ( tick-tock ) .......
M$
go gold~! either way~! just GO~!
and the silver spread is almost back to even........ ( yeah! ) ...what a difference a day ( or two ) makes.
LGB: Lets be modest please -- humility is a quality to be cultivated. I was just complementing you on your good sense - please don't make a fool out of me, and lean on Pete. We all are entitled to our opinions. By the way, just as Pete and others will say that ANOTHER predicted this gold rally, I know you will say it is not due to ANOTHER, but something else. That is as predictable as the phases of the moon.
Personally I don't really think who is right or wrong matters. What matters is that we Kitcoites were alerted, and we all either responded or we did not. I sold part of my gold stock holdings - to play it safe, and am regretting that now
oris: Thanks for the Russian info. Makes sense. I think part of what Boris is trying to do is 'clean house' -- ie rid Russia of gangsters.
But -- that is like trying to rid your house of cockroaches -- not possible. The real turmoil is yet to come. Do your Russian friends know where Boris got the political support to do what he did? Some general, I bet. Someone with military power will eventually call in his chips, and Boris will have to comply. If he removed everyone, who will replace him when he steps down?
My reasoning is as follows: Causality cannot be proved in any ( human-traded ) market, it can only be inferred. The reason is that the market behavior is loosely coupled to the news events. Sometimes unusually bad or good news has no effect, and sometimes it does. Sort of like 'fuzzy logic' with a time delay. Our problem with following the markets is that the 'fuzzy logic' threshold, the market direction, and the time delay are all unknowns, only to be guessed at with technical analysis, although the pattern ( whatever it is ) does persist for a time. The only hard facts are the fundamentals, which are now looking good for gold.
By the way, if you are saying we still have a gold bear, you are wrong. I'm not sure what you are saying because your posts seem so bearish, gold-wise.
http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2553464786-d03
fund buying and profits taking and rolling over the month........I say this market is NOT in strong hands ( yet ) ....as someONE ( not noone ) had posted this morning...... ( who could that be? ) ...
But.....what the hell, a couple of bucks up is better than a couple of bucks down...go gold.
away...to grind......no, seriously. {;-$ )
?
They are certainly oblivious to real value etc.. Right now they are making
zillions and I am in intensive care with my short S&P.
As value is a concept out of the way, what is going to stop them? We know the grenade will explode but could 1st Q earning cool the bulls? It doesn't look like it as they brushed off profit warnings as mere blips on the screen.
Only a worlwide crisis , Asia back with a vengeance, or AG trying to prevent a speculative bubble which will be too damaging when it explodes could shower the market.
I argue for the later as Asia will likely need a few more months before collapsing into unpaid debts.
Last week inflation and growth figures show that the fine balance described by AG in his H.A. testimony is on the verge of disappearing.
I think the FED will hike rates in the coming weeks and rather sooner than later.
Do you agree that we have our gold bottom?
Any word from the precious metals floor traders? Are they buying with both hands yet?
It will be interesting to see what Frank Veneroso says today.
away...to party w/ Jack
?
and I have effectively 'strangled' ( either break ) this en thing ( JYU8 ) ....now move it! Ya gotta love a good strangle...
Date: Sat Aug 23 1997 07:47
Roebear ( @Tort ) :
This market is like the Titanic, it shall cruise ahead majestically with
its unsinkable reputation. But like the Titanic, unknown to its crew and
passengers, it is made of a very brittle alloy which will shatter upon
collision, sending it down in infamy. I think I hear the screams already
and there are not enough lifeboats!
Rallies in our old gold bear were lasting for about 3 months - max.
Your carefully worded contrarian posts I think are appreciated by all. When you start to 'load it on' - I often lose track of what you are saying.
I agree with your comments that we should always think for ourselves, and not follow the advice of any one person. I did that a few times when I was inexperienced -- was with the Aden sisters, and John Dessauer -- lost a bundle.
I think we need to remember that there always will be new inexerienced visitors to Kitco that don't know enough to know how to respond to investment advice -- free or at $200+/year -- this always has been a problem with investing ( or life ) - and always will be.
But -- when gold does finally rally, it will make up for years of waiting. That is one problem with gold -- it is like flying an airplane. Hours of boredom -- with minutes of intense excitement. Same way with being an Anesthesiologist.
For those of you who disparage the movie, be reminded of your youth, and bury your cynicism deep. True, the story was a bit sappy and melodramatic, but that is exactly what was required to play against the backdrop of the legendary ship. The trick was to tell a story, not just show a boat. I found the effects to be transparent at times, but I could care less. The tie in with present day gave the movie its soul and sense of perceptive. The "boy from the wrong side of the tracks" story has been told before, but rarely with such simple open honesty.
Even the necklace ( which I thought was a distraction throughout ) proved to be the pivotal point of understanding - for me at least - That old Rose could have cared less about telling her story. She had no need to open the secret she held her entire life, she simply needed a boat ride to a funeral. The price of the ticket was the story, but she was there to bury her lost love and, in a very real sense, consummate her marriage to him, if not in life, than in destiny. The cutaway to the photos of young Rose living a full life, experiencing many of the things she and Jack spoke of, was a good a conclusion to a story as I have ever seen. OK, I admit it, I'm a sucker for a good love story - and this was a good one.
Some one posted here that they would rather watch a movie on the VCR. That is seeing half the movie at best. 50% of the film must by cut to fit the format of your TV screen. This "pan & scan" editing reduces the movie to a shell of its original form. I'm very pleased that DVD is finally here, so you can choose to watch in wide screen format.
As for the experience of the movies - and that is what they are: MOVIES, not "films" as pseudo Hollywood types and critics like to call them - I would rather see it on the big screen than the little set. Perhaps it is because they are building so many new theater hereabouts. Stadium style seating, high back seats, curved screen, incredible sound, all have improved the movie going experience.
I have made it a life study in "time dynamics" to achieve the ability to walk into the theater just as the lights go down, no waiting about in bright theaters for this fellow. When the lights do go down and the curtain draws, reality is bent, and disbelief is suspended. The experience is very personal even though the theater is filled with people all around you. Each takes the images and story in their own way, and no two will have seen exactly the same story. This shared experience can greatly enhance the movie. "As Good as it Gets" would have not been the same movie, were it not for the laughter of the audience. I know this is so, because I decided to see it again and the theater was nearly empty. The few and muted chuckles did not sweep me away as they had in the original viewing.
I saw Titanic on the day it was released, and the theater was filled with teenage girls. The collective pheromones released by this dreamy eyed lot when, "Leo" first appeared on screen was something to experience. Trust me on this.
Sold gold at $302. Silver has me worried, looking for the close above $6.40 like everybody else. Got lots-o-platinum, will buy more soon. As for palladium. Homey don't play dat.
OK
So -- unless our short term rally fissles and we make new lows, I am not worried. I will just add to my position on the next bottom. I consider D.A.'s post highly significant -- namely that his commodities program is signalling a long term gold bull.
I will be happy if we reach $360/oz by December. Given what is happening to M3 and with saturated emplyment figures that is highly likely. The surge in public debt is probably ignored by most except us gold bug types.
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980323/V000690-032398-idx.html
We must experience the natural cycles between living in a 'fiat' currency dream world, and a world without debt ( or at least much less debt ) .
It will be painful -- it is unfortunate that we do not have a 'collective' memory where all humans remember all previous human mistakes. Many things must be relearned after several generations of forgetting past lessons.
For those that disagree with the LAST word -
Perhaps the millions who find some entertainment value in the "film" are sadly misguided, empty shells of souls who know not better. It is a certainty that their lives would improve if only viewed through the bleak lenses worn by its detractors.
For those that think I am wasting bandwidth, the last paragraph was all about precious metals. That I take a while to get around to the point should disturb you little. If you don't like some of my posts, I invite you to disregard all of them, yes?
I will pickup from my last post ( Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 15:59 ) , but must add this. I did find humor in the post from SDR_er, that the resulting high price of oil was an "unintended consequence"! This was of the early OPEC, yes, it was truly that way. Some thoughts on this later.
Mr. Allen, the Beirut Resolution was real. In that time, the threat was to price oil in all currencies, not just US$! When the US$ went off the gold standard, the problem was not that oil would buy gold. The gold freemarket was very small for oil. In the back rooms, all talk was how to keep oil prices and settled in US$! As the dollar was the reserve for all countries, a move from oil in dollars would have destroyed it and the financial systems of most large economies. With the US$ just off the gold system, it was very susceptible to any loss of usage.
The price rise of oil was much more than many thought would hold ( SDR_er ) . We found that it was the fear of oil not priced in US$s that kept the price rise in tact. As the resulting price of oil in dollars, after its removal as oil reserve currency was the true reflection of pricing in the, then current market. Not the oil supply cutbacks. All knew that high price from cutbacks, alone would have never held!
To hold a dollar backed oil system, the governments agreed to create a liquid free gold market. They did this by selling much gold over years and allowing it to rise to $200 US. Then, as now, free dollar reserves could go into gold. As the US treasury did no longer back US$ with gold, it hurt not the currency. In a very real way, the dollar went onto a
oil standard to replace the old gold standard. As $180/$200 was to be the limit, for gold ( the BIS set at $180 then ) , in 1978 the US did bomb the gold when it went to $250. The market went out of control and rest is history.
For many years, gold was kept high for the price of oil standard, after gulf war this system fell apart. But, I am ahead of self, questions / comments?
my post take much time to transmit, apologize.
Many have thought that oil is in short supply/reserve and someday we run out. In that time the price will rise due to shortage. This is not true for your lifetime. There is a great deal of energy/oil, for a very long time. The shortages will not come true, look even to the past important reports that say oil run out in 1989! As the crude oil will be fueling your economy for many years, one should look to the market for oil not the supply. It will be the change of this century as oil finds a new medium of exchange. Even the SDR_er looks for producers to cut back:
Perhaps you refer to a price that is sufficiently high to compel conservation on the part of the consumer? Thus restricting sales of the producers? But would this not allow the producers to produce at a moderate level over a longer period of time? What am I not considering?
Oil does not look to cut back, but to supply more! What is now found, is a currency that will allow full supply without loss of wealth.
Mr. Allen, do you see the EURO as a help in this area? Would you use EUROs as a currency in your land, side by side with the US$?
A call for the collected good vibes from the entire Kitco crowd. A couple of quick, but vicious storms will hit So Cal on the morrow. The RJ lime crop has suffered tremendous damage from the cumulative effects of recent storms. My precious little lime blossoms have stood courageously through wind and rain whilst their brethren loosened their hold and fell lifeless to the ground. For these fallen limes that will never be, there is no redemption. We need to address our efforts to the living.
For those that think this post is off subject:
There is a metaphor to be found in the above. Seems somehow appropriate, yes?
Pete -
I am here to testify, cherokee has NO cohorts. He rides the wind; a restless spirit. One may as well wrestle with the mysterious sirocco that unsettles your camels and steals your tent in the night.
Fight the wind
Rail against gravity
Will electrons to leave their orbit
But do not fight cherokee
OK
pete--
take your barbless hook and fish elsewhere....newbie-itis becomes you.
i've no paper except what was given....and i'll soon sell it.
the truth is usually quite un-palatable....go ahead and swallow...you'll feel better, and you should know better.....don't tug on the cape.
read kitco....the archives on bre-x and big trader.....who said what,
and when.....THWOCK! there...your hide hangs high....phew....
Down .70 cents------------------------Bart, bring on the fees, maybe
something will work then.
One mustn't forget that the socialists were the ones that ruined the natural paradise of South Africa.
One day, it will be Africa's turn. But not with what peckerwood is dreaming up with his trip there. Please accept my apology, but, I cannot really, for, I had nothing to do with it. GO Au,Ag,Pt,Pd,Y,Yt,Tb,etc.
Feelings run deep when our heritage, freedoms , and pride are stripped from us. Goodnight and God bless!!
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