Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Tue Mar 24 1998 00:04 - ID#401460)

Check It Out!


(Tue Mar 24 1998 00:07 - ID#227290)
One More Market Comment
To all:

Gold looks to be tracing out a "flag pattern." First we have the flag pole, the $28 runup from $278 to $306 in January. Second, we have the flag, the slow, tortuous correction from $306 to $288. And third, we have the culmination. What will happen?

"The flag flies at half-mast" is the rule of thumb, meaning the second leg up will be similar to the first. A $28 runup from the low of $288 would bring gold to $316. If measured from the point of breakout ( $295 ) , then gold will go to $323.

Somewhere in there -- $316 to $323 -- we should see a medium-term top.

The Preacher

(Tue Mar 24 1998 00:07 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Robnoel -- I must have missed their charts somewhere. Thought I covered their site fairly well. I'll have to revisit it.

Cavender -- $25,000 coin? Not for me. I'll settle for just slightly numismatic. And any rarity has its value should the so-called economy continue to chug along. Especially concerning downside protection vs. the bullion, when purchased low in the first place. Personally, I don't 'require' the premium valuation on these coins. I did by them as 'insurance'. But I don't condemn the premium either. Seems that in either case, it becomes a non-issue, at least on these lower MS coins. One thing I like about these old coins is that they are more readily identifiable to people than foreign coins might be. It also 'might' be argued that they are presumably non-confiscatable, though I tend to think that nothing anymore is really such. I also like their appearance. Classy.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 00:11 - ID#411112)
Cavender,sorry if come across a little snippe,we are not talking about "rare" coins,these are common

date coins,there are only two players in this
market collectors and investors,a collect
buys with no intention of selling,as the
collector base grows and takes from the
finite supply,there is less product available
to the investor,who buys and sells for a
profit,as the investor base grows you get
more dollars chasing less product....sounds
to me you got your ear chewed out by a slick
coin broker,as i said to Eldarado,check out
this site ,prices graphs charts population

bernatz du ventadorm
(Tue Mar 24 1998 00:15 - ID#182192)
Anybody tuned in
Could you give me the last two Oscar winners,
Best Director and Best Picture, when they
come up?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 00:18 - ID#411112)
Eldarado,you two are going to drive me nuts,go back to URL on the left hand side it says DAILY COIN

PRICE,scroll down to Mint state rare coin,index,its got a 3 month chart 1 year 10

year all the way back to 1970,seek and ye shall find

(Tue Mar 24 1998 00:23 - ID#20137)
eligible sivler dropped 624,016 ounces now at 50,150,644... getting lower and lower
COMEX Gold Warehouse Stocks

Gold hasn't changed one ounce since
Date: Tuesday Mar 17 1998. Definite looks like a paper market. You only need $73,034,522.40 to buy all the eligible gold in comex. ( at the sale price of $297.20 )

warehouse stocks:
GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

321,832 0 0 0 0 321,832
245,742 0 0 0 0 245,742
567,574 0 0 0 0 567,574

( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

0 624,016 39,797,762
276,933 -624,016 50,150,644
276,933 0 89,948,406

(Tue Mar 24 1998 00:29 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Possible Gold BREAKOUT!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 00:31 - ID#401460)
Another Town Meeting

One Screw up after another now.
Sorry if posted earlier.

President's town meeting on race turns into shouting match


(Tue Mar 24 1998 00:32 - ID#255151)
Oscar Update

Best actor-Jack Nicholson, Best actress-Helen Hunt, Best Picture- ( still pending ) Best supporting actress-Kim Bassinger ( Yeah! ) Titanic up to 8 Oscars.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 00:36 - ID#28594)
OIL--To say that there are divergent schools of thought might be an understatement!

On the one hand, from Tuesdays FT Martin Wolf: "Opec's last stand"

Once the oil cartel had the world at its feet. Today it is desperate to stop a collapse in the price of crude.

Last week the price of crude oil fell to its lowest level, in real terms, for a quarter of a century. Indeed, it came very close to where it had been before the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries appeared on the scene. Terrified of the abyss before them, Opec's leading members struck a surprise deal to shore up their crumbling cartel.

On the other hand, From Wind Energy Weekly, Vol. 15, 12 Feb 1996

If present economic and oil industry trends continue, future price shocks appear likely as early as the year 2,000, with the world facing permanent increases in the price of oil, two new studies have concluded.

In the first study, The World Oil Supply 1990-2030, which was completed in late 1995 by the prestigious Geneva, Switzerland based group Petroconsultants, deals with the realities of the statistics, point out that the world is finding only about seven billion barrels of oil each year in a falling trend, while producing 23 billion barrels a year in answer to rising demand. The study describes this situation as a recipe for bankruptcy.

The death of the oil economy ( which also refers to the two 1995 studies )
With the earths oil supplies due to run out sooner than expected,...

Now...somebody's right and somebody's wrong. Unless Asia is going to
stop the world in its tracks. But hasn't Rubin assured us that is
not the case? So, if the market discounts the future snigger, snigger )
the price of oil, given these reports, should NOT have fallen in the
first place. Fe, Fie, Fo, Fum; I smell the blood of derivativeScum...

(Tue Mar 24 1998 00:37 - ID#401460)

Best Director and Best picture


(Tue Mar 24 1998 00:38 - ID#411112)
Eldarado,sorry missed a place,click on Daily coin price/guide...then scroll down to coin market

summary,at the bottom of the page you will have various choices,generic,mint state,etc.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 00:44 - ID#28594)
A. Goose--That's 73 million? That's NOT a typo? We could purchase
ALL the gold at Comex for 73 million dollars? Perhaps Kitco
folks could pool loose change and LET'S GO FOR IT! Our
little window of opportunity to go into the HISTORY books
[or jail?]. But wouldn't it be a kick to send them a
fax and a letter of credit and tell them we want to make
shipping arrangements? OK, folks. This is it. This is what's
going to separate the REAL Goldbugs from the namby-pamby, "Welllll, I think gold is a nice investment..." crowd.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 00:51 - ID#252150)
James Cameron, a Canadian, won academy awards for directing & producing the biggest grossing movie of all time. Appropriately enough another Canadian, Celine Dione, sang the song from that movie that won the award for best song.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 00:55 - ID#267298)
(Let's Do It)
I'll kick in a thousand, we only need another 73,000 or less
to corner the market. If this gets going I'll kick in two grand.
Lets go gang.

SDRer, you keep track............

(Tue Mar 24 1998 00:56 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Robnoel -- Ah! Got it. That was a beer job!

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Tue Mar 24 1998 00:57 - ID#25867)
Mounties & Leafs
POLARBEAR & Tyro: The $30.00 shipping charge reflects the fact that there is time involved in the back-office functions from receiving an order to getting it out the door. The cost is the same whether we have to prepare one or 100 coins. The word "Transport" really means, shipping, invoicing, packaging, insurance, and that at some point we had to pay something to get them here. You can always save the expense if you pick them up in Montreal. Early June is a good time to come. There's very little snow left and you can always catch a Montreal Canadiens playoff game.

TO TED: Thanks for the acknowledgement. A lot of people read this site and everyone, even under the guise of their handle, has to take responsibility for what they post. If you must make fun of a groups of people sharing a common background then pick on Antarcticans or the Toronto Maple Leafs.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 00:57 - ID#401460)

You would think someone would do that.
73 million to own the market - really.

Let's go for it!


(Tue Mar 24 1998 00:58 - ID#267298)
Lets Do IT
I mean we only need another 73,000 to put up a grand..

Can this be all that's needed????

(Tue Mar 24 1998 01:03 - ID#401460)

I just checked, and I still have 5 credit Cards
that are not maxed out.

If we all place an add in our local paper and garantee a 10% return, we can raise millions.
Limited partnerships, heck with the mines.

It would be interesting to inform the press that it would only take 73 million to buy out the comex.

Let's all e-mail CNBC in the AM.


(Tue Mar 24 1998 01:11 - ID#224149)
Lets go RMC
Montreal Playoff Game ----ha ha haaaaa My store sold over 100 copies of Titanic Soundtrack today Its all gone ---Waiting for next shipment ---Hope the RMC does the same .Go Gold Right Ted.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 01:13 - ID#28594)
Highrise--It surely would be an ADVENTURE!
Don't you think we should "limit" the LP to Kitco board folks?
Cause to tell you truly HiRise, I dinna think the responses
we would get from a newspaper ad...let's face it, we [Kitco
folk] are viewed as strange beyond reckoning. The outsiders
who would give US money..well, it would be like that old
Groucho Marx joke, "I wouldn't belong to any club that would
have me as a member." But truly, you KNOW it is 'do-able".
$73m is really chump change in today's market.

Soooo, A. Goose, when and where to we meet to elect officers, sign papers and pool our credit cards? {:- ) ) ) )

(Tue Mar 24 1998 01:15 - ID#257148)

Best News poster:Donald
Best Pl Call : RJ
Best Numismatic call: LGB ( See how they've kissed and made friends? ;- )
Best Gold call HepCat
Best Tech Analysis: tie DA/Preacher/Eldorado
Best local poster: Glenn
Best Researcher: SDR_er
Best All-round good guy: JTF
Best chart Poster ( consistancy ) : Sharefin/Yauger
Best bunfight: LGB vs RJ
Best kept secret: JTF = ANOTHER ( noone can dispute it )
Best Indian: cherokee
Best Au/Dow ratio caller: Donald
Best SA Analysis: J Disney
Best architect: Highrise
Best goldsmith: Themissinglink
Best Useful alround site: Colin Seymour
Best post to keep the kids amused: 223 ( beating dimes into rings )
Best Newsletter writer who has changed his handle: Gartman: tgl
Best humour - Nick@C
Best gatrologer Mike sheller
Best fight in Asgaard: Bart vs Vronsky ( time to drop the "en" Bart? )
Best Understanding of American constitution: mozel ( where is that rascal? )
Best new poster 1998 - alberech the dwarf
Best French joke - Ted
Best gritting of teeth despite being unfairly picked on by Deus: Earl
Best apocolyptic claptrap ; Ziva
Best wager: Auric ( a ) with Puetz ( who honoured the wager ) & ( b ) with aurator who will have to
Best Iron ovaries: Frustrated
Best handle for testing one's sobriety: 2BRO2B
Best Recipe: Mike sheller
Best Hawk: Old General
Best self-defence weapon: AK 47
Best method for hiding precious: sam
Best Village Idiot: aurator
Best Handle: hamlet
Best computer glitch: Bart's programmer who forgot 1998 follows 1997
Best poster who will not be drawn out on a previous identity: Old Gold
Best Gold Discussion Forum: kitco
Best Deus ex Machina: Bart Kitner

please note, the above list, while final, may be amended subsequently if this poster's palm is greased with the appropriately weighted coin ( s )

John Disney__A
(Tue Mar 24 1998 01:30 - ID#24135)
Getting Things into Perspective
For Polarbear and Vronsky
I appreciate your efforts to publicize RSA Gold Mines.
Thet are stupidly underpriced relative to their US
As I have explained in the past to the point of
extreme nausea, I regard RSA as slightly less
"politically instable" than the US, Canada, and
Australia. These three countries have LONG AGO installed
investor unfriendly taxes like on capital gains and
dividend. The only nasty tax here is the tax on
horseracing winnings .. Which Australia abolished many
years back.. during a brief period of enlightenment.
The US I believe still tries to withhold taxes on
horse racing winnings.. jeez..
All the above aside... Please never poo poo the RSA
mining management for having underplayed the merits
of their mines. Look .. they dont have to "look good"
like their NA counterparts.. because they dont BORROW
money. This is the reason for all the NA mines crapola
about how good their "cash flow" is... they're talking
to their BANK MANAGER not their shareholder.
Imaging you are Anglo American...You are a top drawer
ex Jewish now Catholic ( I think ) a la Gustav Mahler
extreme Anglophile family. You are wall to wall class.
You cancel board meetings when the cricket is on.
You take care of your shareholders and they know that.
You produce as much gold as the US. You produce much
more platinum than RUSSIA. You produce more diamonds
than anybody ... also coal.. whatever.
Now you want to streamline your company.. and sack
half of your staff to remain competitive. You dont
want to ..but business demands it. Also you dont want
to raise a ruckus with Government while you sack what
also happens to be their constituency. You have to
get the Government on your side ...
NOW think about that.. during such a period .. would
you be beating a drum about how good your mines are ??
NO .. you would be planting press articles about the
desperate state of your industry .. such articles
frequently picked up by various well meaning souls on
KITCO and played back to yours truly .. who normally
doesnt respond too sympathetically.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 01:34 - ID#28594)
mmh, hope no-one is going to go 'bonkers' if I mention another Another comment...
but, with the silver stocks dropping, I keep seeing that photo in
the HK Standard with that Morgan Dollar size silver coin the Chinese
just minted, and I keep waiting for a new Asian currency unit for
trade and I keep wondering about Another's comment:
"As the Asians started buying up everything last year ( 97 ) "

Goodnight all. Hope you have the plans completed for our big coup
by tomorrow morning. All I ask is that you not NOT get Ann Richardson
as our Director of Communications. She may be ready to leave the WH, and be willing to work cheap, but --folks-- she's not our kinda person.
{:- )

(Tue Mar 24 1998 01:46 - ID#28594)
DBog--Didn't see your post!
Could you keep track [Acting Secretary] whilst I leave for
a bit. "DBog", is that like "de-thatch" only sturdier? {:- )

Aurator@The.Community.Ledger You forgot "Best Wit" ~ Auratoratthekeyboardwithallbraincellscrackling

Nite again!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 01:48 - ID#257148)
I'd rather have a free bottle in front of me than a pre-frontal labotomy
crusty 1:30
are you telling me that people lie when there's money involved?

This capital gains tax sure sounds like a joy. What is it? nahh I don wanna know...

If i had half a brain I'd be australian.

( is that joke ok Bart? ) let's all pick on the Newfies..

(Tue Mar 24 1998 01:49 - ID#257148)
a bit---- of what?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 01:49 - ID#238422)
I want Nobel Prize in Engineering for the development
of ZIVATRON, which helped to prevent war with Iragi I also want another Nobel Prize in Technology
of Genecological Diplomacy for chasing Ziva from Kitco site..

Can you make arrangements?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 01:50 - ID#252150)
Eldorado@The Sinking Yen
Your technical work may tell you that the JY should rise, but fundamentals will out. And the fudamentals are terrible & getting worse almost daily. Their deficit is now over 7% & their debt is 120%+ of their GDP. And yet Rubin wants them to loosen even more. Their only hope is to export their way out of their financial morass. I can see the $U.S. at 160 within a year.
IMO Rubin & the treasury dept. have pretty well succeeded in destroying the Japanese economy.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 01:57 - ID#257148)
being from the mothercountry, you know all things can be arranged. I am willing to forego my usual golden handshake for a solid Platinum patina'd anthrax - sniffer. The nobel prize is yours.

anyone else want a medal? name your price

(Tue Mar 24 1998 02:11 - ID#238422)
Very good, thanks...

Will call Stockholm tomorrow to ask for delivery...
As a token of my appreciation, here is top secret
result of vodka/pickle based forecast for this week:


Good night.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 02:20 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother John,

I want to thank you for your question which you
raised some time ago - who bought $400 ABX gold...

Seriously speaking, it made me think real hard and
I believe, in right direction...I think I finally
came to some logical conclusions on what is going on...

Your brother Oris ( loaded with conclusion up to the ears ) .

John Disney__A
(Tue Mar 24 1998 02:20 - ID#24135)
Damn - you're funny
For Aurator ..
You must be the funniest salty bugger on earth

John Disney__A
(Tue Mar 24 1998 02:22 - ID#24135)
God .. you go to bed early..
for Oris ..
My guess is 307 using vodka and prickly pear method.. How come
you go to bed now .. its only 9 am

John Disney__A
(Tue Mar 24 1998 02:25 - ID#24135)
are you gonna sleep on it ??

For Brother Oris
How long are you gonna keep me in suspense .. until you
wake up???

(Tue Mar 24 1998 02:26 - ID#393224)
Thankyou Auracious(Gracious acceptance speech, bs, bs, etc).
Thankyou, thankyou, thankyou,Auracious, for the Best Humour...,err.... humor...whatever...Award..for 1997. I was only trying to keep from going insane while waiting for this goddam yellow stuff to be worth more beers now than it was in 1929. Donald--I want a beer/gold ratio by 8 a.m. this morning Kitco time. Let's see if you are worth your award!!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 02:27 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother, it's 2:25 A.M. right now...
Have mercy, I got to go to work
tomorrow ( opps, today... )

My number was 303-303.50.

Hitting the pillow...

(Tue Mar 24 1998 03:14 - ID#401460)
Interest Rates



(Tue Mar 24 1998 03:16 - ID#173274)
@the scene
James -- Re; Yen: Yeah, I know about the 'fundamentals' et al. However, 'bounce time' is near at hand too. Also, as you well know, They are capable of massive dumping of 'securities' should they feel overtly threatened with a continued sinking of their currency. Also, believe it or not, we are ALL one, big, 'happy' family. Like the oils, anything surprising can happen at anytime. Even the Yen is not beyond that. Therefore, I'll watch the charts. They'll tell me all I need to know about the yen on a minute-by-minute, hour-by-hour, and day-by-day basis. Anything else to be 'heard' will be after the fact. I personally do not like to have a particular belief in a given scenario as it affects how I might otherwise trade. Having preconcieved expectations is very hard to get past in trading, even if it be a particular number that one simply has as a 'goal' that MUST be met!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 04:44 - ID#185448)
In absence of Donald, here the actual spot-beer/Au-Index as of 4:45 standard-kitco-time: 686,95
( 500ml-cans for 1 Oz )
Cheers Fred

(Tue Mar 24 1998 05:34 - ID#238295)
Farfel: Your GOLD AND PERCEPTION post was brilliant as usual. The powers that be will indeed fight the emerging gold bull tooth and nail, but they are doomed to failure. Gold and gold stocks are in VERY STRONG HANDS TODAY, probably the strongest ever. By contrast conventional stocks have never been so weakly held.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 05:40 - ID#238295)
the shorts
Bill Buckler; That sharp drop in open interest occurred on FRIDAY, NOT MONDAY. Those shorts must have known something to cover like that just before a big rally. Let's face it -- the shorts have been the smart money over the last few years, and the big drop on Friday, was BULLISH NOT BEARISH.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 06:08 - ID#26793)
SA mergers could cost 6000 miners their jobs.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 06:08 - ID#238295)






1 ) 1-604-517-3400 ACCESS CODE - 5754
2 ) 1-604-527-9450 3 ) 1-604-527-9451
4 ) 1-604-527-9452 5 ) 1-604-527-6453
6 ) 1-604-527-6454


(Tue Mar 24 1998 06:10 - ID#224149)
Another Day Another Study It Never Ends
Mike Sheller  I am about to do a month study on Gold using December 31 1974 9:45 am EST Comex Chicago. Would you know if this is the correct Date and Time for the start of future trading? I will keep you updated on the study here at Kitco.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 06:11 - ID#26793)
Japan slipping further into the economic sea

(Tue Mar 24 1998 06:15 - ID#26793)
Still defending the yen with mouth, not muscle.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 06:19 - ID#26793)
Norway holding out on oil production cut promise

(Tue Mar 24 1998 06:28 - ID#224149)

Radix Chart:
Gold Comex - Natal Chart
Dec 31 1974, 9:45 AM, EST +5:00
Chicago Illinois 41N51 087W39
Geocentric Tropical Zodiac
Koch Houses, True Node

Radix Points:
Mon Sun Mer Ven Mar Asc MC
Transiting Points:
Sat Ura Nep Plu Chi
Progressing Points:
Sun Mer Ven Mar Jup Sat Ura Nep Plu Chi Nod

Transiting Aspects:
Cnj Opp Sqr
Progressing Aspects:
Cnj Opp Tri Sqr Sxt SSq Sqq SSx Qnx

Selected Events:
Transits to Radix
Progressions to Radix
Progression Type: Secondary Q2 SA in Long

Report Period: Mar 24 1998 to Dec 23 1998, Time Zone EST +5:00

SatSqrVen ( X ) Tr-NaApr 9 199822Ar54' D22Cp54' D
ChiSqrMon ( X ) Tr-NaJun 6 199813Sc27' R13Le27' D
SatSqrAsc ( X ) Tr-NaJul 7 199802Ta20' D02Aq20' D
ChiSqrMon ( X ) Tr-NaAug 15 199813Sc27' D13Le27' D
SatSqrAsc ( X ) Tr-NaSep 24 199802Ta20' R02Aq20' D
ChiCnjMC ( X ) Tr-NaDec 1 199825Sc35' D25Sc35' D
VenSSxVen ( X ) Pr-NaDec 12 199822Aq54' D22Cp54' D

*** END REPORT ***

(Tue Mar 24 1998 06:37 - ID#60253)
Allen ( USA ) ,

I will continue some at 19:00cst. Will address some others thoughts/questions from past posts with this write. Also, questions for you.

thank you

Mike Sheller
(Tue Mar 24 1998 06:37 - ID#347447)
You think that Saturn square Ascendant later this year will spell trouble?

Mike Sheller
(Tue Mar 24 1998 06:46 - ID#347447)
I'm confused. You have Chicago but you have EST +5:00.Shouldn't it be CST +6:00? That will screw up your Ascendant. Was it New York or Chicago for Natal Comex? Your coordinates for Chi are ok. But time zone is off.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 06:50 - ID#365216)
Vronsky: any new news on the golden eagle site?
are you still alerting us, Mr. Vronsky?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 06:54 - ID#286199)
Good start this morning
The Johannesberg gold indices are taking off....up nearly 6% and the graphs look great.^JGLD&d=1d^JGAI&d=1d

SWC was up $2 and 9% yesterday!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 06:55 - ID#351224)
Like OTHERS I appreciate your posts. You advocate purchase and holding of physical AU - In what form is physical to be held?
A ) Coins - What 'currency' / denominations ?
B ) Ingots ?

What are your THOUGHTS on upcoming Year 2000 computer glitches and the potential impact on global economy ?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 06:56 - ID#412172)
EX. of gov't market timing, BiHISellLO, re central banks??
3/24/98 -- 4:33 AM


Strategic oil reserve at a glance Facts about the Strategic Petroleum


-Created in 1975 in a series of salt domes in Louisiana in response to

the 1970s oil crisis to moderate oil supplies and price spikes. Oil

reserves to be released in event of emergency supply shortage.

-Authorized for 1 billion barrels, but has never contained more than 591

million barrels. Current inventory, 563 million barrels.

-Last oil purchased in 1993. Average purchase price over the years,

$27.14, though much of it bought at $30 to $35 a barrel.

-About 28 million barrels of oil sold in last two years to pay for

reserve operation. Price ranged from $18 and $22 a barrel.

-Congress directed to sell enough oil in 1998 to pay $207 million to

operate reserve. Energy Department estimates selling price under current

market condition at $13 a barrel.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 07:01 - ID#284255)
Perfect timing - and Hugh knew why.
Interesting to see WMC closed out their hedging position last week.
The boss of this company also sits on the RBA and has used inside information previously.

Another positive for gold.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 07:07 - ID#377196)
DJ/Gold ratio...29.44 down from 30.48

Bully Beef
(Tue Mar 24 1998 07:31 - ID#259282)
If they are to stop this rise in gold...
We will see a strong sell first thing in New York. How long can they keep it up. A sell in the morning erases everything made last after noon. If there is a sell I say conspiracy. It's just like the purchase at the end of the day. As someone mentioned... if it had happened in the morning there would be no stopping it. Good luck out there today boys and girls and nobody get hurt...

(Tue Mar 24 1998 07:34 - ID#222231)
ANOTHER-Only for those intersted in ANOTHERS THOUGHTS!

REF #1:

I want to thank Poorboys for the above references mon mar 23,1998 06:03.
Don't lose any sleep over it Poorboy!

REF#3: ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS ) sat mar 21,1998 15:59
fri mar 20,1998 22:12
mon mar 09,1998 07:55
sat mar 07,1998 23:16



By MID 1998, the Euro Holding Company,
WHICH IS ALREADY IN BIZ NOW & has been for t'last several mo's, goldbugs
from which the Euro BANK will spring,
( You see, all holding co's spawn other financial related subsidiaries )
& it has already been decided will be headed by
a Prominent BRITISH Economic/Financial Type
( do you realize, Ole Prospector, that you are saying t'UK has already decided
they're going to participate in EMU! AYUPPP! b/c I believe it! )
that HOLDING COMPANY will decide by mid 1998 how MUCH gold the EURO
BANK will hold, in its vaults, for reserves, to support the new EMU.
What does this mean?

Well, it means several is underscoring the severe manipulation
of the physical gold market in US Dollar terms
in order to even make said new gold reserves' purchases even possible.
You see, t'15 EU member nations will not be "surrendering" any gold
in order to join!
Think about it...
If they were to do that, then each EXISTING CURRENCY would be in great
and wreck their respective fiat exchange rate because of a reduction in their
physical Au reserves.
So, the EURO HOLDING COMPANY, has had to systematically accumulate,
dollar cost averaging as it were,
enough gold to back the new EMU.

The next logical question to ask is:
How much gold will they be needing, Ole Prospector?
I don't have that answer, but I do know the timetable is MID 98
for said major accumulation to be done.
I'm all ears for said clues as to how big the Buy will ultimately add up to!

Do I believe this is the mother of all rallies that will cause
the hedgers to roll out of their short positions?
In the most emphatic of terms!
Look at your long term Gold Charts and see how many SUSTAINABLE rallies
have occured in the last 18 yrs that were "V" shaped bottoms!
Until SEVERAL of my rav fav 9 Technical Indicators turn Positive
I will be selling this rally
and shorting ABX, PDG, NEM via options
when the irrational exuberance peaks.

We've already been treated to "irrational Bullshit" by t'Gold is Dead folks...
( anyone 'sides me old enough to remember when God was declared Dead a few
yrs back? )
Fool'em once, shame on liar...fool 'em twice, shame on the listener!
Gold that the new EURO BANK HOLDING COMPANY is busy acquiring
is certainly "alive and well"
while we've been b/s'd to believe otherwise, in order to disgorge ourselves
of the worthless stuff...
Anybody besides me see something wrong w/this picture?

So what do I do, O/P, you ask...
Simply this...
Accumulate what is hated, i.e., buy low
When to sell? Just B4 the EURO HOLDING COMPANY announcement is leaked
mid '98!
Do it in options, physical, gold stocks, or futures.
I don't care which....JUST DO IT if you are a goldbull.

Yes, I'll be shorting into this rally, but NOT ALL RALLIES ( grin ) ...



There is an obvious concerted effort by CB's and MINES to depress the price of gold thru the LBME to short the market. Once they accomplish this feat which will eventually give them control of the majority of all physical gold and future production for many years out, why do they need to concern themselves with oils desire for a gold convertibilty? It seems that there is a DOUBLE CROSS OCCURING BETWEEN CB'S AND OIL,OR IS IT A COLLUSION BY BOTH? ) with the CB's holding the upper hand right now. The CB's will continue to depress the price as long as it takes to create this MONOPOLY.


The big question is, will oil join them thru the BIS, or will they buy into the physical market and push the price of gold up by these means? Or, is it both?




(Tue Mar 24 1998 07:39 - ID#330175)
Mornin fron SUNNY Cape Breton
April Gold @ unch~~~~~~~

(Tue Mar 24 1998 07:42 - ID#222231)

(Tue Mar 24 1998 07:44 - ID#330175)
Answer 'the guy'..............damn it....
Date: Mon Mar 23 1998 15:40
aurator ( Anyone know an honest broker? -- ROFL-- )
ID#257148:....P.S. He wants ta trade the XAU!!!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 07:44 - ID#365216)
I second MILes_A's request for your thoughts on gold bullion
and y2k glitches.

Thanks in advance.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 08:04 - ID#287338)
Looking good so far!!!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 08:08 - ID#330175)
'yellow stuff' surgin......April Gold up 1.40(*go gold* Poorboys)
G'Day BART: Yes,the Toronto Maple Leafs are a! ( Go Cape Breton Screaming Eagles ( we play the Quebec Remparts tonight and Eddie & MOI will be in our usual seats ( on the ice---next to the penalty )

(Tue Mar 24 1998 08:20 - ID#287338)
And the cries goes out!!!
BUY! BUY! BUY! Good healthy New York open.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 08:23 - ID#224149)
Mike Sheller If the date is right I can adjust the time Away to work in a rush ----back late tonight

(Tue Mar 24 1998 08:28 - ID#287338)
A sign of desperate shorts trying to drag the market down? Someone sold April for a tick low of $297.60

(Tue Mar 24 1998 08:30 - ID#411259)
..... Note from the Conspiracy .....

Bully Beef -

Am conspiring today to sell gold. Sorry.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 08:37 - ID#330175)
RJ........................and you should be

(Tue Mar 24 1998 08:38 - ID#238295)
Ted and Andy.
If gold moves higher today we can expect Ted and Andy to make well publicized statements that this is just a technical rally and POG will soon be making new lows. Wayne Angell -- fanantic eneny of gold investors who wants prices so low that only the most efficient miners can make a profit -- probably will join in.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 08:38 - ID#210114)
Rocket or Rollercoaster??
Encouraged to see the recovery to $US299 - 300. Will it continue like a rocket or will it dive like a rollercoaster? Have had too many ups and downs in the last 6 months to get excited.

Fingers crossed................

(Tue Mar 24 1998 08:40 - ID#330175)
Aurator(1:15) and the Kitco Auscars
a gem!!.....or should I say NUGGET~~~~~April gold up 1.70 ( holy cow! )

(Tue Mar 24 1998 08:41 - ID#287279)
Hi again.
It's good to see golden eagle post article about the significance of the Y2K. Almost a year ago I posted here that we will see no major drop in DOW until the late 1999. It seemed obvious to me that the Fed would do anything to control the situation until something inevitable and external could be blamed. It is shocking to me that the markets are still ignoring y2k. Not much longer. The masses will be destroyed financially. Y2K is the tip of an iceberg. Vronsky, bravo!
Y2K is the BIGGEST problem facing the markets and will influence the price of gold soon.
Some will profit handsomly from Y2K, most will lose everything.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Mar 24 1998 08:41 - ID#347447)
Conspiracy Confirmed
re RJ's post, I have that old feeling that this pop in gold is in sympathy with the pop in oil, neither of which will last for very long on the face of it. I still want to see HM break 10 3/8 - 10 1/2 decisively and rumble on, lest I conclude that this is just a reflex rally to resistance and another unsettling settling back is ahead. Silver, on the other hand will doubtless receive some fire from Mars conjuncting NYSE Moon thru the next several days and into the end of the month. Any dual option play on silver volatility in the next 10 days will pay off. Go Mars. Go Ag. Otherwise, lets hear it for my Kitco Kasualness Index ( Inverse KKI ) which predicted "Action Ahead" for the open this week based on the "on topic" seriousness of kitcoites on Sunday. No recipes. The traders had their aprons off with an axe to grind Monday, didn't they.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 08:42 - ID#31868)
Pete - two comments in response to your post
I don't think the past fifteen years have a thing to do with the gold and silver markets today. The financial markets are imploding, gold will be the safe haven it has always been and the crush to get out of paper worldwide will drive up the price, even if the CBs sold all their gold into the market. Silver is in a severely depleted position and it will take years to get it back to levels which will once again bring the price back down to earth.

Secondly I think that the rumblings in the Islamic world are clear and concise. The move away from the usurious paper of America and Europe are in motion and will be implemented with a vengence, literally.


(Tue Mar 24 1998 08:43 - ID#287338)
Gold and silver seem stuck now. April gold $300.20 Silver 638. Where do we go from here?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 08:49 - ID#410194)
Gold and Silver news
It is suspected that the Russian situation created some concerns about the actual reserves of the former Soviet Union with respect to Gold, Platinum and Palladium which is why Gold joined the rally yesterday. Some traders also suggest that Gold rallied on the sharp gains in the energy prices but it is extremely premature to talk about inflation premiums behind the gains when most commodities are only correcting extremely oversold conditions for now!

Comments from the bank of Italy suggested that the EU may hold Gold reserves higher than what it carries itself, which is about 30% so this could mean that there may not be much in the way of further Gold sales by most EU banks until after the formation of the Bank. Estimates are now less than 25,000 tons, 50,000 tons and possibly 30% above reserves.

For the first time since 1995, the "shorts" have been given something to be concerned about!

In Silver, beside tight stocks and deliveries, the possibility of a new fuel cell comprised of zinc and Silver was floated on the market Monday giving the longs more hope to hangh on. The trade thinks Buffet was aware of this when he bought his Silver but there are also reports that the new fuel cell process is still too expensive.

There were 104 deliveries yesterday which is barely enough to offset the slight Comex warehouse stock increase of yesterday.

Bully Beef
(Tue Mar 24 1998 08:51 - ID#259282)
RJ buying those dips and selling the highs...How dare you make money?
Thats not what this is about!!!Its about er.. um .. ah Oh forget it.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:00 - ID#287338)
Good Luck RJ!
Although I don't think that play is going to work out for you this time. April now $301.60. Maybe near the end of the day it will!

Bully Beef
(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:01 - ID#259282)
Honest broker...conradiction in terms.
with the little money I have it doesn't pay to trade for 80 dol CDN buy or sell.Brokers don't even want to look at me .Its a joke. Richardsons Greenshields wants your first born. There are ALTERNATIVES TO GETTING GOOD ADVICE. I'VE LOST EVERY WHICH WAY. FIND A FISH WITHOUT A WATERTIGHT ARSE HOLE.sORRY ON THE SHOUT . TOO LAZY TO FIX.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:01 - ID#255151)
The REAL Reason for Gold's Rise

UFO's to save humanity starting March 31, 1998. Taiwanese cult leader in Dallas receives communications through his GOLD ring. Go Gold!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:05 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Auric -- Gee, and they thought the people at Waco were nuts! Until the governemt is able to genetically engineer 'aliens', don't expect tooooo much.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:07 - ID#255151)
Try again

UFO-Gold story

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:07 - ID#426220)

OLD GOLD ( Ted and Andy. ) "Wayne Angell -- fanantic eneny of gold investors who wants prices so low that only the most efficient miners can make a profit -- probably will join in. ...

Right-on OLD GOLD! This will most probably be also echoed by
Bob Rubin. They only need handle-bar moustaches, garter
armbands and wide-suspenders to harmonize... But as this type
of singing lost its popularity long ago, so shall our Gold-Bashing
Barbeshop Quartet singing soon fall on deaf ears.

Come to think of it, did not Barbershop Quartet harmonizing
reach its pinnacle popularity just before the 1929 CRASH?

Take it Ted, Andy, Wayne & Bobbie...HMMMMMMMMMMMMMmmmm....

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:10 - ID#7568)

For anyone that cares about such things, our system generated another buy signal for gold last night. The last one was almost a year ago.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:17 - ID#222231)
Tolerant1, Questions to questions!
I don't think silver will be affected as much as gold. ANY SHORTING THEY COULD DO AGAINST SILVER WOULD BE PURELY NAKED, THEREFORE I DOUBT THEY WOULD SHORT SILVER THE WAY THEY'RE SHORTING GOLD. IMHO. The only thing that will affect silver is the negative spin on gold carrying over to silver. My question to you is, do the big boys have enough resources to crush the longs? Seems to me that so far it's been working for them. The only ones that I see being able to give them a fight for thier money is oil. That is why I asked if there might be a collusion between both bankers and oil. That way oil will gain gold at cheap prices and in the end be part of the biggies. I really don't know.

Did you read ref#2? This guy is predicting a further drop in gold to below $200/oz before the EMU comes to fruition ( middle of 98 ) . Could this be possible? ANOTHER says that the BIS will pull out all stops to prevent this. If ANOTHER is to be believed, then they ( oil ) are not part of this concerted effort. Are the resources of oil bigger than the resources of the BIS and CB's? ( OR ARE THEY BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE; REDUCED DEMAND FOR OIL; NEED FOR REVENUES; ETC.? ) ANOTHER should comment on this, or has he already? I appreciate your input.


(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:20 - ID#287338)
Message from aliens to all gold shorts
You will be assimilated... Resistance is futile.

Mike Stewart
(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:25 - ID#270253)
Technical Update
I am back from vacation at Chincoteague, Virginia. Great place to hike, observe nature and eat seafood. As predicted, I had to phone home to execute a trade. This always happens when I am away.

The Toronto Mining Issues Summation Index turned down last Tuesday, warning of trouble, but will turn up today. This is a short term all clear signal. Ideally, we will see it rise rapidly over the next two months to a level above +2000, confirming a new bull phase. If it makes it above +1000, but dies before +2000, look out below! I will keep you posted.

The new lows in Toronto Mining shares have been over 5 issues daily during the last couple of weeks, but did not expand significantly. They are now drying up quickly. This is a good sign.

S&P has exploded but the McClellan Oscillator/Summation index have not been very strong. I still expect weakness into May prior to a final thrust up. This thrust will determine whether we will end this bull or continue.

I have an old model, which is very safe, and always gives early sell signals. It said sell at Dow 8900. It is time to reduce my general market exposure. Individual issues that I hold have been very strong lately, so they need to be reviewed on an individual basis.

We should make a few bucks today if it holds over $300.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:27 - ID#411149)
Jest saw the ambulance, strike that, dead meat wagon go by.
The scanner said they were goin to pick up some dead GOLD SHORTS!

Tally Ho

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:28 - ID#210163)
Today is a big day in the gold market. Every big move up on day one has been met by selling at the end of the day on day 2. IF that doesnt happen today it could be an interesting week.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:30 - ID#368244)

What part of La. are you from?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:33 - ID#255151)

Check this out. NSC may get expanded powers. Jack-booted thugs in the making? and auricdiggingthatfoxhole

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:36 - ID#426220)

Further follow-through of yesterday's gold rally was demonstrated by the
Johannesburg Gold STock Index ( JSE ALLGOLD 10 ) cloSing on the day's high ---- UP 7.24%

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:37 - ID#255151)
Try again- first URL incorrectly typed by Moi

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:38 - ID#341189)
Interesting action on the JGLD today.
The Jgld acually sank for first several hours even though the gold price run up had occured while they had been closed. Then about 5AM it took off, wiping out losses and finnished up over 7%. Maybe we have a real rally here.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:38 - ID#188244)
D.A. - are you out there?
D.A. could you please post your EMail- I've been meaning to take you up on a offer to discuss some macro issues for months now. If the offer is still open, I'm ready to revive my attempt to understand SOMETHING about the world economy.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:40 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Well damnation. According to all the charts and quote services, April gold did 'ping' to 310. I wonder who bought that one!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:46 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Auric -- That's NAZI jack-booted thugs. All jack-booted thugs are not quite equal. Some have bigger jack-boots.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:47 - ID#28593)
FTSE futures expiries had some interesting moments!
"Proponenets of efficient market theory might struggle to explain why the UK market's value could fluctuate nearly 4 per cent in 20 minutes or indeed 2.7 per cent in 15 seconds...! Brave new world indeed...

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:49 - ID#222231)

Crystal Ball
(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:50 - ID#287367)
@ Eldorado
It's not just April gold that "pinged" to 310. I've checked June and December; they also show "pings". I still think it's an error.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:52 - ID#222231)

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:57 - ID#288399)
CNBC, the national "cheerleader"
CNBC makes me sick -- I think I'm in need of a therapist. Did you notice that after the market shut down in mid-afternoon trading in October, CNBC came up with a new programming "strategy" to buoy the markets throughout the afternoon hours: voila! Power Lunch extends till 3:00 pm and EVERY guest is bullish. No pause in the action, blah, blah, temporary correction, headed for new highs, long-term horizon b.s. all day long from Squawk Box through closing. Makes me puke.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 09:59 - ID#348286)
Are we fianlly moving?
Well lets look at things.
- Many nations making up the ECB want significant
Gold reserves and this may end europes Gold liquidation.
- Stocks are at more obsene levels than 1929.
- Mines and AU companies are shutting down.
- Russia is teetering on the brink.
- WB holding major silver position, Gold?
- M2 hitting record levels.
- Extreme bearishness towards PM's.
- RJ is shorting Gold again.

Well we have been disappointed many times before, but when the move hits many people will be unprepared / caught short. Thats the only thing thats certain about the end of a bear market.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:03 - ID#398105)
Needs to achieve and maintain US$320 to establish new foudation...

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:04 - ID#20748)
Ted Arnold
In his daily commentary today says that gold market is very frisky due to some very agressive buying by a leading U.S. bullion house and couple of other lesser players. Their objective is to force a short covering rally. Dealers expect to see spot gold at 308-310 today or tomorrow. This, he maintains will be a 'wonderful' opportunity for producer forward selling.

Wonder how long this circus barker is going to continue once the CB game is played out.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:07 - ID#426220)

A picture is worth a 1000 words....

Buy low and sell HIGH

Yesterday RANDGOLD & EXPLORATION ( RANGY ) was UP more than 11%. Within the last year its high price was more than $8. Currently, selling for One Buck plus pennies. Check out the chart:

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:07 - ID#246224)
Looking forward to your comments. Will do my best regarding your questions. Looks like follow through will take us to US$320-360 area shortly. Thank you for making the effort to contribute your views on this site. I'm sure the ones who have questioned your comments may now be willing to hear a bit more. See you at 19:00 ( CST ) .

Do you see the paper market starting to burn? How will this proceed?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:10 - ID#213265)
@the scene
vronsky -- And they thought holding coins has been bad!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:11 - ID#398105)
Pete (Ooops)................................

I'm not aiming this at you Pete, but at the article............

STRUTH, what bullshi*..........

Are the following figures wrong ??? I don't think so !!!

03/20/1998 $5,538,571,184,190.64

Month Amount

03/19/1998 $5,537,630,079,097.83
03/18/1998 $5,537,178,813,514.71
03/17/1998 $5,536,663,723,483.42
03/16/1998 $5,530,456,190,863.05
03/13/1998 $5,529,816,594,280.28
03/12/1998 $5,529,750,398,747.62
03/11/1998 $5,528,971,446,018.69
03/10/1998 $5,525,631,040,092.91
03/09/1998 $5,523,019,454,633.25
03/06/1998 $5,525,824,113,483.61
03/05/1998 $5,528,529,698,719.50
03/04/1998 $5,529,409,747,928.18
03/03/1998 $5,528,586,832,076.70
03/02/1998 $5,514,791,303,162.77


02/27/1998 $5,520,668,318,465.51
01/30/1998 $5,490,064,235,079.64
12/31/1997 $5,502,388,012,375.95
11/28/1997 $5,462,621,557,837.57
10/31/1997 $5,427,225,185,059.66
09/30/1997 $5,413,146,011,397.34
08/29/1997 $5,404,420,294,885.51
07/31/1997 $5,373,228,560,474.27
06/30/1997 $5,376,151,252,876.02
05/30/1997 $5,344,961,362,266.83
04/30/1997 $5,353,971,314,439.39
03/31/1997 $5,380,889,857,391.59


09/30/1997 $5,413,146,011,397.34
09/30/1996 $5,224,810,939,135.73
09/29/1995 $4,973,982,900,709.39
09/30/1994 $4,692,749,910,013.32
09/30/1993 $4,411,488,883,139.38
09/30/1992 $4,064,620,655,521.66
09/30/1991 $3,665,303,351,697.03
09/28/1990 $3,233,313,451,777.25
09/29/1989 $2,857,430,960,187.32
09/30/1988 $2,602,337,712,041.16
09/30/1987 $2,350,276,890,953.00

Source: Bureau of the Public Debt

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:12 - ID#269409)
@ Gold...Silver
Sorry to be contrarian once again, but Gold's failure to follow through in overseas market, and it's failure to continue a decisive move today, leads me to believe that this rally will shortly fizzle as several other mini rally's have the past few months.

Silver on the other hand...those COMEX inventory numbers have resumed their slide, the shorts are primarily shaken out, the weak longs are gone, look for $7.00+ again on the near horizon. Probably by 3rd week of April. With some bumps along the way....

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:18 - ID#269409)
@ Gold Spike....ANOTHER let down
Two causes for the Gold spike... Boris Yeltsin's shennanigans in firing Russian officials, and Oil producer agreement leading to big oil price spike yersterday. Neither of these is likely to produce much follow through.

( A new agreement among oil mavens sends this message...bring oil back to the $15 per barrel level. This will be hard as some will be crushed in rush to cover....anyone with GENUINE inside knowledge of OIL/GOLD would have known all about this in advance...apparently no one we know on THIS forum saw it coming until it was already happening... )

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:21 - ID#287280)
In "Mastering Global Business" business is being warned to turn away from derivatives!
"...But global companies deal with a continuous stream of cash flows--and by defination hedging short-tem risk has absolutely no effect on the level of uncertainity over a number of years. An easy way to illustrate this is to compare the volatility in spot and future prices. The conclusion is inescapable...there is no significant difference. Future prices contain no additional information content over spot prices. There a policty of hedging all cash flows is really an exercise womewaht similar to rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic."

David Hume, "An Enquirty Concerning Human Understanding" ( 1748 )
"When we transfer the past to the future, order to determine the effect, which will result from any cause, we transfer all the different events, in the same proporation as they have appeared in the past...As a great number of views do here concur in one event, they fortify and confirm it to the imagination, beget that sentiment which we call BELIEF."

Said it before, will say it the WEST,the business world--not governments--will demand a stable, value-oriented currency of account...because without one, it is impossible to run a globall business.IMHO [sorry Ted]

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:22 - ID#22956)
en=es.........and stuff.
I go with Eldo on this one. The charts have set up a nice little pennant pattern....or a declining wedge....or a Bull flag..... ( take your pick ) . It has not made new lows despite it's bad fundamental picture. ( this is not to say it couldn't tank tomorrow ) . Couple this with Donald's 'news' earlier regarding intervention and we have the makings of a nice little bump. I have made some good money from this kind of trade starting last May ( anyone remember that NICE move by the en? ) . It matters no more about ones economic situation. It is all about favors and manipulation of sorts, etc. I went long en esterday. And I will look for a time to go short. w/w/crossfingers/'s ALL good!

And gold better git-off it's hind........uh huh.

And Ted better git outta Canada..........uh huh.

And Aurator better rethink his 'Best Wager' was most definitely D.A. and EB's wink battle that beat 'em all......uh huh. He has obviously not been to the Shrine......oh my.

And Old Gold better............oh well, some things are better left alone.............uh huh..........and don't change your story tomorrow to fit the moment.



(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:24 - ID#398105)
LGB.......................still smoking cigars ?

LGB ( @ Gold Spike....ANOTHER let down )

Och man, I didna realize that the world stops when you "speak"?

A suggestion -

why don't you take Clintons' job when he is impeached......

You appear to have all the answers - yes/no.

Get a hair-cut !!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:25 - ID#183109)
GOLD FOR 20 CENTS AN OUNCE.....yes FIVE ounces for a DOLLAR.
Here's my favorite example of a market in LA LA LAND...
( delete the EN in )

Crown Consolidated is a newly listed ( JSE ) gold dump retreatment company in which RANGY owns 50.6%. Crown recently completed its maiden quarter with a strategy to combine the best practices out of the components Knights and RMP Properties. Crown is incorporating new technology for the pretreatment of dump material. This includes the use of spirals and cyclones that can concentrate 70% of the gold into 15% of the mass, which will dramatically reduce treatment costs. This year's average production cost is estimated at $275 an ounce, but, using the new preconcentration procedure, Crown is aiming for costs of $53 an ounce! Yes, fifty-three dollars an ounce. Crown's initial gold production is approximately 150,000 oz a year - with major increases forecasted for the future. Crown is also investigating opportunities for expanding the company's reserve base. It already has reserves of 126-million tons, containing 2.5-million ounces of gold, resources of a further 141-million tons with 1.5-million ounces of gold and tailings sites holding 1.4-million ounces.

Crown's opportunity for expansion is indeed promising. Firstly, it can develop uneconomic reserves within the compass of its current operations, located in the central Witwatersrand region. In addition, the company may decide to mine reserves in the West Rand, owned by Durban Roodepoort Deep. Further down the road, Crown is eyeing international expansion, firstly on the back of Randgold Resources which could provide an introduction to dump retreatment in gold-producing countries like Ghana or Mali, and later into India, South America, and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Also, reserves in Australia could be targeted where Continental Goldfields - which has a 17% stake in Crown - wields some influence.

With outrageously low production costs coming down the pike, substantial current production, $11 million in cash, 5 million ounces of gold, and a huge potential for growth, it is indeed insane that this company is selling for a total market capitalization of ONLY $12 million. Blame it on the unglamorous business of waste reclamation, blame it on a low gold price, but just like all the other assets of RANGY, this one will have a very positive impact on RANGY's bottom-line.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:29 - ID#210235)
CNBC: It's tolerable with the sound off, where you can glance up at the numbers every so often.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:31 - ID#411149)
Isure- I am in Ruston, LA but for the next two days I will be
camping out in Tyler TX. gime a holler

Tally Ho

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:32 - ID#213265)
@the scene
LGB -- Perhaps. But a four dollar intra-day correction in the gold price could also simply be in the cards, though I rather tend to think that a correction should happen from higher numbers that bring it back to current levels. We'll see.

Even with the backwardization in the silver, which is bullish, silver has got to make it above the 6.60 area. In my book, current numbers are not quite good enough to suggest that a raging bull has redeveloped. Even 6.60 simply suggests that there might be more room to the upside. It might also prove to be the end of the current wave.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:32 - ID#7568)

I can be reached at

If you like we can have our discussions out here in Kitco land. Perhaps we can attract some other points of view.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:36 - ID#237149)
Yor're right LGB. It's almost time to short gold again, and to be long on silver...$7.00 on Silver would be nice. I'm also holding some long positions on platinum. I'm already in profit, but it will go further higher in the near future.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:41 - ID#340459)
Folks, can you pls give your opinion and assessment on the following Co's standing
1 ) Bema Gold ( BGO.T )
2 ) Echo Bay ( ECO.T )
3 ) Pegasus ( PGU.M )

Thank you in advance for your frank comments.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:41 - ID#237149)
PS: I'v missed the oportunity to by some oil contracts by a day when it was around $13.00. I've waited to long, but I didn't expect OPEC's news this early. It looks like to me it wouldn't be a bad idea to short some oil future contracts a this level.

Mike Stewart
(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:42 - ID#270253)
South Africans
I just got my quarterly reports from Harmony and Durban Deep in the mail. They are for December 97, but read very well for someone who likes turnaround situautions. Harmony is making a small profit at current prices and produces about 800,000 ounces annually. Durban produces about 700,000 ounces and is losing a slight amount of money at current prices. When gold moves, they will explode immediately. There will be no excuses.

On the other hand, I have some Royal Oak!!! They will survive the next two months, but what will remain will be of little value to common shareholders. By the time they pay off their growing interest bill, or dillute the shares like crazy, gold will have to go to $400 for these guys to get the shares back up to $2.00 U.S. I had a feeling that Peggy Witte was a self-serving liar, but foolishly bought into the Kemess prospect anyway.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:46 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Ouro -- You might also save yourself the bother of shorting the oils and simply hang yourself instead. End result may be about the same.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:49 - ID#269409)
@ Haggis
Look Haggis, Sarcasm and insults I don't mind at all...but mentioning me in the same sentence as Clitton? Now THAT's a low blow dude!

Go Gol...uh I mean SILVER! ( yes? )

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:52 - ID#57236)
Auscars,Derivatives,Gold,Zeropoint energy
Having trouble getting through to post, so this is multiple.

aurator: Love your Auscars this AM! I will be glad to let that poster called 'noone' debate whether I am ANOTHER any time! Ever since your post months ago, I have tried to post 'no one's rather than 'noone's, but bad habits die slowly.

SDRer: Thanks for the ZPE post. I am slowly sifting throught the 'free energy' or equivalently 'zero point energy' web sites. I'm sorry to say that I sense something real in some of this, but so far I have not been able to quantify anything. It is tantalizing, but it does not put bread on the table. With regard to derivatives, I do agree with you that runaway derivatives trading is dangerous, even if much of it is due to 'fiat' currency instability. It is addictive, and appears on the surface to reduce risk. But - only if we have a quasi-steady state where the risk formulas work. My point was that a derivatives fiasco during market turmoil will have a mostly delayed -- not instant effect. The real risk to the markets is not the use of derivatives per se -- it is what happens months later when the losses are calculated, IMHO.

All: Gold. My assessment is that of D.A.'s in a nutshell. We have a long-term buy. But, as LGB said, and he has good common sense, the current gold rally will probably fizzle soon. We will have plenty of time to pile in. So, I am not buying more gold stocks -yet. I will wait for the next intermediate - term downswing. Also -- it will be interesting which dominates the price of oil -- the over production of oil pushing its price down -- or the pending fall in the US dollar. AG has no choice now but let the US dollar weaken, and that seems to be what the SEAsians, and the Europeans want as well!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:54 - ID#348129)
@FROM USAGOLD - Italy's Statements and The New Millenium Coin (How about a Y2K problem coin?)
MARKET UPDATE ( 3/24/98 ) AM---- Gold continued to move to higher ground this morning on the strength of a statement by Italian Finance minister Fazio that the new European Central Banks would hold gold reserves higher than Italy's -- about 30%. Also pushing gold higher is the news reported here yesterday afternoon that a consortium of gold mining companies including Barrick, Anglo-American, Newmont and Placer Dome had offered to purchase any of the gold central banks might be willing to sell. The gold would go towards the minting of new coin issued by the group to be called the "Millennium Coin". The group stands ready to buy as much as 1000 tons of gold per year for the new coin, and plans to spend $200 million on its promotion. The group's offer stands as a counter-balancing force against the continuous stream of rumors about central bank gold sales which have served as a bearish back-drop for gold over the past few years. With this announcement, the wind is taken out of the rumor-mills' sails. Particularly vulnerable now are short sellers in London and New York who in recent years have made a fortune shorting gold. Overnight, gold held onto its gains overseas and added another $1.00 to the price in London. Demand was strong around the globe and gold was as much as $3.50 higher in early New York trading. In other news, the markets are still nervous over Boris Yeltsin's well publicized maneuvers over last weekend and the move by key oil producers to strengthen oil prices. Crude was down about 25 early on news that the U.S. government was going to sell off part of its strategic stockpile of oil. The dollar is slightly firmer this morning and the stock market is up. Bonds are sideways. We'll update if anything interesting surfaces.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:55 - ID#398105)
LGB........... I could always get you a job in Bolivia..........

Forget about Silicon Valley and California.........

Did someone else mention Eaglecrest in Bolivia...........

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:56 - ID#33164)
JTF , Allen {USA} Sharefin: chas & All who are
interested in DOW correlation with Neutron flux that Crooks is now working on-
Hello there - As promised,

is the correct URL- have just received it from Crooks'daughter and checked it out. It's the "Moscow Neutron Monitor "site, updated every hour- can you chaps see if there's a correlation with gold at all? They have a chart on their home page, which is probably as easy for you to read as ABC!! ( :- ) ) If any problems, please let me know per mail JTF,Nick? Little time to scroll through. Thanks and regards

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:58 - ID#348129)
@GOLD leading the PM pack - Now thats a welcome change.....
I think the close on the Comex today will be very important and signal the short term direction. The BULLS and BEARS are getting ready for a scrap........

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:58 - ID#269191)
LGB you forgot about the new gold coin.
The new gold millenium coin will take 1,000 tons per year.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 10:59 - ID#286279)
Auscars are rigged. I nominate aurator for overall best Kitco dude.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 11:02 - ID#269191)
I think I figured out what the USA Today guy is doing.
He keeps quoting lease rates of 3.7% in his articles when Kitco
shows lease rates of below 2% and the commentary on the World
Gold Council web page seems to agree with Kitco. Look at Kitco's
chart for forward rates: 3.7%. He must be confusing the forward
rates with the lease rates.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 11:02 - ID#7568)

We should indeed be hearing more from the bear camp shortly. Rumor has it that some strong selling is coming out of the Swiss area. Since everyone has been conditioned to sell any gold rally into the ground there is a bunch of skepticism out there. Even here in Kitcoland there is a healthy smattering of would be short sellers. Somehow the fact that gold is better than a buck higher from yesterdays little flurry is construed as bearish.

One interesting note is that the options market has seen a remarkable shift in the last day. Last week when we were purchasing our last load of calls, people were falling all over themselves to sell volatility, and complaining that no one would buy anything. My friends on the metals desk report that implied vols for out of the money June calls are being offered at 20, almost twice the bid from a week ago.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 11:05 - ID#269191)
It's not USA Today but USA Gold.
I made a mistake. It's USA Gold not USA Today. Anyway,
I think he's confusing the forward and lease rates.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 11:10 - ID#213265)
@the scene
EB -- Your Yen long might very well be OK. Just be aware that a quick drop to the January lows is still a distinct possibility in the very near term.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 11:12 - ID#288156)
From Are the worlds financial markets integrated or segmented?[Bernard Dumas]

A very interesting study, from which this flag:
One contains months classified as US contractions by the National Bureau of Economic Research; the other contains months classified as expansions. Correlations are noticeably larger during contractions than during expansions.

a Tolerant1-like observation--mmmmmh {:- )

(Tue Mar 24 1998 11:15 - ID#286279)
Just saw the solicitation at the bottom. OK, I'll cough up to have aurator receive best all around Kitcoite auscar.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 11:18 - ID#269409)
@ DEJ / Millenium coin
Yes, I think that Millenium coin will add a bit of interest to Gold, but only a bit. Most of the sales will be at the expense of other coins. Krugs, VP's, Maples, AE's. Gold buyers are Gold buyer's. They aren't created out of the hype of some new coin development. Sure we'll see a handful of folks who will buy one as a novelty, some may even go on to be actual investors. It'll be a small percentage.

U.S. Treasury Dept./mint is also researching production of a new Gold coin that'll be .9999 fine, to better complete with the Maples and VP's of the world.

Unfortunatley, the U.S. mint is ALSO going full forward on plans to mint 100's of millions of DOLLAR coins that'll be "Gold" colored. This will cheapen Gold's image in the states IMHO. Lessen it's exclusivity a bit.

Would that "Heart of the Ocean" reproduction necklace, from original designer who made one for "Titanic", have auctioned for $2 million plus last week if the designer had allowed the cheap imitations to be made and sold on Home SHopping shows? I think not......That's why they immediately sued and prevented that occurance.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 11:24 - ID#22956)
No worries............
I've got JYU8...MickJ would say.......Tiiiiiiiiime is on my side....yes it is! ( sang in my best off key voice ) await the eventual/inevitable spike...but how low can it go~~~ ( ugh? ) ..... ( ohmy? ) ..... ( tick-tock ) .......


go gold~! either way~! just GO~!

and the silver spread is almost back to even........ ( yeah! ) ...what a difference a day ( or two ) makes.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 11:33 - ID#253153)
XAU URL address
Does anyone has a URL address that provides up to the minute XAU quote ?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 11:35 - ID#288155)
JTF--I agree! One might suggest that what we are NOW seeing is

the little snowball [at whose center is a hard rock] starting to slide
down the icy mountain. Present dislocations are no doubt attributable to the first crashes in Asean markets--the currency attacks, which one might believe ( probable, plausible] tied to oil.
Fee, Fo, Fie, Fum, I smell the stench of PaperOilScum...

re:url--your welcome. We do seem to 'load you down' with reading matter. You'll have to give-up sleeping! {:- ) )

(Tue Mar 24 1998 11:36 - ID#238422)
In case somebody is interested...
I just talked over the phone to some guy in Moscow,
he is a director of mid.size plant ( 1500 employees )
and he is upset... He thinks what Yeltsin did was
not good for stability inside Russia and Russian
Economy in general.

I agree with him.

For those who think it was cleaning of goverment from
"mafia elements", first think who is the "main mafiozi"...

This Yeltsin's action was a pure political BS.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 11:49 - ID#348129)
Good point. I agree that too many rallies in AU have failed.
Most people are now well conditioned into assuming that every future rally will also fail.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 11:58 - ID#373403)
Millenium Coin Minters offer to buy central bank overhang
EXCELLENT! Finally we strike back against tyranny and deception! Go GOLD!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:00 - ID#372262)


(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:00 - ID#341189)
@ oris
Are you getting any hint of "dire" events in the Russian East? Mines, oil fields?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:00 - ID#222231)
Your humility and humbleness is beyond words, oh exalted one.

your serf forever

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:03 - ID#31868)
anybody out - can you look up JVAG in Canada
none of my quotes are working, last quote showed it up.61 to C1.00

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:04 - ID#251268)
D.A.~~~~~bear camp
I'm sure we will hear from them but I got a pile of Aug,330 calls
last week for 120 got a bunch of June 310's and 320's,I think thats
going to be the undoing of the bears a lot of small guys like
me who don't have ANY more downside risk than our original
cost ,and the shorts have been selling out to the century for
peanuts,if I'm wrong I'm wrong a little if they are back up the
trucks and loadem up,if there is a slide I'll buy more calls
as long as they stay this cheap. ( of course if there is a run at 320
in a hurry I'll be looking to sell some farther out of the
money calls myself )

Quixotic 1
(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:09 - ID#48200)
Real time XAU
JP, All;
FYI, Yahoo provides real time market information for the indices, equity quotes are delayed 20 min.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:09 - ID#25171)
The case for a $ bear market is getting stronger every day.
I already posted earlier on the fundamental reasons why the $ is overvalued ( namely current account deficit rising strongly , need for non european to rebalance their currency exposure in favour of Euro , reserve status of $ being challenged and European rates going quicker higher than US rates )
Now , if you look at price action, yesterday was a surprise.Trouble in Russia and higher oil prices were not even sufficient to maintain $ value vs DM as the dollar drifted by 0.7 pfenig.On the charting side , a series of higher lows is compensated by a seemingly unbreakable barrier around 1.84. A false break on the upside to wipe out the shorts is still possible but unlikely.
If the dollar gets weaker Gold will rise accordingly with the usual time lag.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:13 - ID#269409)
@ Gold Demand
You Kitcoites want to REALLY drive the POG up? Here's what you do..Talk the "Academy" into making those "Oscars" out of real Gold! With the many millions they give away every year, SURELY this would add megatons to the consumption of Gold!

( Best art direction of a leftist documentary made in a Banana Republic by Native speaking indigenous peoples goes to....... )

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:13 - ID#340286)
JVAG is 0.38-0.39 today. No trades. No news. The $1.00 quote must be an error.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:16 - ID#31868)
Many thanks!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:17 - ID#342282)
Mike Stewart re Tech update
Mike, how about sending your email. I would like to talk about your T/A work. Glad you liked Chincoteague. I'm in N.C. now, but originally from Richmond. That's some of my old stomping grounds. Used to be great duck & goose hunting and you couldn't beat the food. Thanx, Charlie

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:27 - ID#57236)
Neutron Flux,gold, Russia
Colleen: Thanks for the real-time neutron flux website! Hope all is well in South Africa. Looks like things may be looking up in that part of the world, now that the 2 year gold bear is over.

LGB: Lets be modest please -- humility is a quality to be cultivated. I was just complementing you on your good sense - please don't make a fool out of me, and lean on Pete. We all are entitled to our opinions. By the way, just as Pete and others will say that ANOTHER predicted this gold rally, I know you will say it is not due to ANOTHER, but something else. That is as predictable as the phases of the moon.

Personally I don't really think who is right or wrong matters. What matters is that we Kitcoites were alerted, and we all either responded or we did not. I sold part of my gold stock holdings - to play it safe, and am regretting that now

oris: Thanks for the Russian info. Makes sense. I think part of what Boris is trying to do is 'clean house' -- ie rid Russia of gangsters.

But -- that is like trying to rid your house of cockroaches -- not possible. The real turmoil is yet to come. Do your Russian friends know where Boris got the political support to do what he did? Some general, I bet. Someone with military power will eventually call in his chips, and Boris will have to comply. If he removed everyone, who will replace him when he steps down?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:31 - ID#266105)



Orwell Orwell didn't didn't know know the the half half of of it it.


Orwell Orwell didn't didn't know know the the half half of of it it.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:31 - ID#288156)
Wanted to mention Friday last FT lead editorial--
A nation of homeowners?
Does anyone remember the history of US house acquisition-- the demographics and the economics of which lead US into a very comfortable boom? Because nothing has more trickle-down than the new-home market, yes?

Imagine China setting sail on THAT voyage! Mr. Zhus speech yesterday was a bold, and welcome, statement of his vision for Chinas future. Housing reform shuld certainly play a large part in this vision. ...Mr. Zhu must remain alert to the risks he runs in initiating such a fundamental change to Chinas economic system. 

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:34 - ID#31868)
Alright, let's get something un-spinned here, from the quotes
in the zillions of posts concerning the Another entity. It is clear here at Cuervo Central that the entity predicted a large purchase/sale - not a rise in the price of gold in the now famous allotted time frame.

It was addressing the purchase/sale - not the rise in price.

This has been a Public Tequila Message - thank you

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:39 - ID#288156)
Carl--you may find these urls helpful...Russian newspapers on line, in ENGLISH {:-)
St. Petersburg [Russia]

Moscow Times

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:41 - ID#57236)
Causality and the markets
LGB: Some 'thoughts' about cause and effect. You say that it was not ANOTHER's predictions of a gold 'buy' of some kind but something else, but it was not Russia either. So what was the reason for gold going up in your opinion? Do you have one? I'm willing to bet that whatever you have is no better than anyone elses.

My reasoning is as follows: Causality cannot be proved in any ( human-traded ) market, it can only be inferred. The reason is that the market behavior is loosely coupled to the news events. Sometimes unusually bad or good news has no effect, and sometimes it does. Sort of like 'fuzzy logic' with a time delay. Our problem with following the markets is that the 'fuzzy logic' threshold, the market direction, and the time delay are all unknowns, only to be guessed at with technical analysis, although the pattern ( whatever it is ) does persist for a time. The only hard facts are the fundamentals, which are now looking good for gold.

By the way, if you are saying we still have a gold bear, you are wrong. I'm not sure what you are saying because your posts seem so bearish, gold-wise.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:42 - ID#26793)
Two major bank downgrades sends shivers through Japan

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:45 - ID#289357)
If anyone has the link to the US Treasury debt page, please email it to these birds with a caustic comment that they have not a clue about the US debt/budget situation. I would, but lost the link. TIA

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:46 - ID#26793)
Gold stocks rally in Toronto

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:48 - ID#288156)
Looong article on "Managing currency risk in a volatile world"
under, "Who Should Hedge", 4 catagories, the second being,

"Companies with lots of debt--Hedging will decrease the possibility that foreign exchange problems will prevent them from meeting their fixed obligations." oooooh Out to the garden! BBL

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:49 - ID#213265)
@the scene
The next move in gold, one way or the other, is about to begin.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:49 - ID#411259)
..... JTF .....

Gold went up on short covering. This, does not a breakout make. A failure here would spell a retest of the lows.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:49 - ID#238422)
Sorry, I do not have any fresh info on mines or oil
fields. I do talk to some people in Moscow pretty often...
but it's limited to specific areas of interest.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:50 - ID#237149)
; )

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:50 - ID#252150)
Ted@Your 07:44--Honest Broker???A Great Oxymoron.
Right up there with "military intelligence" & "jumbo shrimp".

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:51 - ID#238295)
Could some of the bearish posts today be just sour grapes. I think perhaps yes.

I recall that RJ said he is shorting gold mainly as a hedge against his longs in the whites and woiuld not mind losing on this hedge.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:53 - ID#26793)
Ethnic riots in the Ukraine

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:53 - ID#266105)

I trace my interest back to the mid-Eighties when they
moved my/our military paycheck/s from Dec31 to Jan1 to satisfy
Gramm-Rudman and have kinda kept an eye since. Had a debt clock
facsimile TSR, flashing in the last few columns, running up in
the corner of the screen for some years back in DOS days.

Concord Coalition webpage is an extensive resource area
for parsing through the devil in the debt details, they seem
to hew to the facts with some sort of reputation/credibility
to protect/project.

Bully Beef
(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:54 - ID#259282)
Want the price of gold to go up...A Titanic director ..about gold.
Bubbas dig up physical from backyard, put in pick-up truck.. kiss hounds good by and drive to Montana with Bobby ridin' Shotgun with his DEFENDER , with plug out.All of a sudden Y2K kicks in followed by stock crash. Close up of bubbas with a S%%$ eating grin on faces. They meet two girls in Kansas City and offer them a ride. 2 days later they are found hitch hiking back home...THE END. An academy performance.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:58 - ID#411259)
..... Yen is High .....


Add to your two reasons for the gold rally: The drop of the dollar against the yen; usually good for gold, always good for PGMs. Back to the office. I will sell gold today.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 12:59 - ID#341189)
@ oris And SDRer
Thanks to both of you.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:00 - ID#22956)
fwiw dept.
Always good a.m. ( PST ) reading...

fund buying and profits taking and rolling over the month........I say this market is NOT in strong hands ( yet ) someONE ( not noone ) had posted this morning...... ( who could that be? ) ...

But.....what the hell, a couple of bucks up is better than a couple of bucks down...go gold., seriously. {;-$ )


(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:01 - ID#31868)
Titanic shmytanic - 11 awards, blah, blah blah

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:03 - ID#25171)
Some guys out there want to take out the 9000 level on the DOW.

They are certainly oblivious to real value etc.. Right now they are making

zillions and I am in intensive care with my short S&P.

As value is a concept out of the way, what is going to stop them? We know the grenade will explode but could 1st Q earning cool the bulls? It doesn't look like it as they brushed off profit warnings as mere blips on the screen.

Only a worlwide crisis , Asia back with a vengeance, or AG trying to prevent a speculative bubble which will be too damaging when it explodes could shower the market.

I argue for the later as Asia will likely need a few more months before collapsing into unpaid debts.

Last week inflation and growth figures show that the fine balance described by AG in his H.A. testimony is on the verge of disappearing.

I think the FED will hike rates in the coming weeks and rather sooner than later.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:05 - ID#25784)
April Gold next few sessions.
Expecting a drop back to 296--297 today and tomorrow. Then resume the rally into a high Monday about 310. Mercury retrogrades this weekend. We've got to go the other way for a bit. Not below 293. This is progress.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:07 - ID#25784)
Almost forgot---Big S&P top May 8--11. Only in hindsight will we see it.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:11 - ID#31868)
SDR_er - China housing eh! Hmmmm you should look at RYG on NASDAQ
In addition to traditional home building products like window frames, garage doors, vertical blinds, and the ever popular vinyl siding, the company has developed such innovative products as lightweight doors for Coca-Cola trucks that reduce driver back injuries. And you've heard of minute rice, how about the three-day house? The Royal Housing System is a modular PVC house made of hollow plastic tubes that snap together and fill with concrete.

The plastic house may not be fit for a king, but Royal is marketing it in developing regions like China and South America where efficient housing solutions are in great demand. The company also just received US Building Code approval in November. A scaled-down application is plastic storage sheds for gardens and agricultural use, which Royal sells in home improvement centers throughout North America.

In December Royal announced a deal to acquire Gracious Living, a manufacturer and marketer of patio furniture and indoor storage products. The deal not only broadens Royal's product line, but bolsters its retail distribution efforts.

Life as a vinyl extruder ( which means squeezing the compound out through a mold to form shaped products ) doesn't exactly put a company in the fast lane along side high-tech stocks, but Royal Group is nonetheless posting solid growth figures. Acquisitions as well as the aformentioned new product development helped Royal achieve 21% growth in sales last quarter and a 26% increase in net income. Profit margins continue to widen despite an aggressive capital expenditure program to add capacity. Royal is building manufacturing plants in China, Argentina, Colombia and Poland.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:11 - ID#238295)
Aura; With the North American gold stock indexes basically flat today, it does look like things will cool a bit before heating up again.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:13 - ID#57236)
Thanks for the warning!
RJ: Appreciate your post -- perhaps short covering from Switzerland? Confirms my suspicions about jumping in now with both feet.

Do you agree that we have our gold bottom?

Any word from the precious metals floor traders? Are they buying with both hands yet?

It will be interesting to see what Frank Veneroso says today.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:17 - ID#22956)
not much of an oscar fan but....
Tol#1 - I think Titanic was not an actors film even though it had semi-romance thing going. btw, you of all people should know how much conspiracy goes on in the voting. It is as bad as this gold scenario or the Clinton fiasco ;-^ ) .......or....well, you get the pic. party w/ Jack


and I have effectively 'strangled' ( either break ) this en thing ( JYU8 ) move it! Ya gotta love a good strangle...

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:20 - ID#57236)
Royal Group Plastics
tolerant1, SDRer: RYG seems to be a very well run Canadian company that makes quality plastic frame houses that can be filled with concrete. About as easy as building with a erector set. All you need is unskilled labor and a hacksaw -- fill the empty columns with concrete, and you have a rot-proof, hurricane proof house. I'm not so sure about fire. RYG has set up factories all over the world, and has a large effort in China. Given what the new Premier said about a 'house in every pot', paraphrasing FDR, looks good for RYG. Bet its price has already risen today!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:21 - ID#287129)
tolerant1 (Titanic shmytanic - 11 awards, blah, blah blah)
I also find it interesting that no awards were given for acting. Certainly IMO deserved the awards that it received; however, Leonardo Di Caprio helped carry that movie. He is the reason that most of the people I know saw the movie two or three times...yet he was not even nominated. Apparently there must be age bias at AMPAS ( among other biases ) . Meanwhile, back at the DOW, are the bulls acting? Perhaps the media should get nominations for their roles in convincing so many investors to avoid buying gold when the price is down. EVERYONE knows: buy low, sell high. Yet our great exalted "experts" keep encouraging people to buy the DOW at the highest point in history and ignore PMs. Go figure...

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:22 - ID#26669)
Bull Beef, easier to film on location in England.
Change Montana to London, change KC to Oxford, change truck to bus, change shotgun to rolled up newspaper and change girls to junior boys Rugby team. Box office success guaranteed.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:24 - ID#213265)
@the scene
These are the levels that moves back up must happen from in both metals, or else expect more downside.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:26 - ID#342282)
Mike Stewart re my last
Forgot my email address--- -- sorry

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:28 - ID#269191)
Another rally fizzles.
I think we'll get more downside. Once again gold and gold stocks have
failed to penetrate upside resistance. In the next few days we'll
probably move back to $290. When the Central Banks stop selling, then
maybe we'll get higher prices.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:30 - ID#31868)
Have not been to a movie in years, nor sports arena cept a couple
of times to see some highschool kids play. Refuse to pay the money to watch a bunch of over paid cry babies in person.

From what I understand Titanic made it's lion share of money on ticket sales to kids 16 and under. 3 - 4 - 5 - 6 tickets per pointed little head.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:32 - ID#289357)
Thanks for the link; I ripped 'em good. Anyone else who wishes to comment, send email to:

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:33 - ID#289357)

Messed up the second link:

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:38 - ID#225273)
Market Comments
To all:

In my 23:46 last night I wrote: "What I'm looking for tomorrow in gold is some follow-through with a positive close, then over the next few days a retest of the 100-day MA where the gold price "kisses" the top of the line. After this test, we should see the price challenge the 200-day MA at $308-309....
"ABX closed on its high today. Maybe we'll see a gap open tomorrow.
CDE broke through its 200-day MA again -- very positive. Bema stalled at its 100-day MA. I look for it to go through tomorrow."

We did get some follow through on gold. It's still in positive territory and we could get a strong close this last half-hour.
ABX did gap open. That gap is now closed, but I'm still hopeful it can rally here at the end of the day with a positive close.
On Toronto, Bema gapped open too and passed its 100-day MA. There's bee little or no movement so far on AMEX, but the day isn't over.
We don't want things to go too far too fast and have entropy set in. Let's give this market a little time and look for some backing and filling before meeting my medium-term objective at $316-$323.

We watch togeather, yes?

The Preacher

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:42 - ID#342282)
JTF & Allen
Would like to talk to y'all by email, but it's out. Will comply as possible. Sorry and thanx, Charlie

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:45 - ID#246224)
Y2K ..... tic tok tic tok ..... POOF!
Japan is toast. All asia is toast on the roll over: If there is anything left there by that time, it will be ruined. The first world will be cut off from their jobbers and resources. International telecom down. Payments system in shambles. NO lines of credit, just soup lines.

No one will notice though because we will be in total chaos ( cherokee will love it? ) and not thinking about buying cheap VCRs, cars or anything.

Did anyone see the movie during the 80's about nuclear winter? I can't remember the name. At the time everyone was concerned about the 'really big bang'. But a side bar was called EMP ( electro-magnetic pulse ) . Not many were thinking about this. A phenomina that would toast all our sensitive electronics throughout the entire country. At the time I thought alot about the impact of all of our "systems" going down at one time. Ultimately just as scary as a really long winter. Ultimate very similar to Y2K.

Speaking of toast how about them shorts, eh?!? Neat. Can smell 'em burning. Go Gold!

Yourdons' "Time Bomb 2000" is a must read, folks. They've done some solid thinking and present a very even handed risk management approach to this issue. Present scenarios on the order of 2-3 day, 1 month, 1 year and 10 year problem duration. A bit pricy for a paperback but ultimately could save your life.

The only problem is we think linearly but the real problem is a break down of synergy or 'the sum being greater than the parts'. If you took a radio and randomly removed 10 % of the parts would the radio work? How about if you took 10 randomly selected slices into a human brain? How about if you randomly select 10% of US companies to fail instantly? We have built, over time, an extraordinarily complex and interwoven enterprise called "the economy". There are redundancies but not as many as you would like to think.

Remember the UPS strike? That was ONE company out for a few weeks. Our manufacturing base is ultra automated and computerized. Any guesses as to the chances of all *their* suppliers being able to deliver just in time inventory? Triag means identifying the parts that must be saved for minimal survival of the whole. When we talk triag we are talking on the same level of emergency as wars, disasters and plagues.

If you wonder what it will be like consider this image: only ONE major breakdown in every municipality, industry, bank, store, school, hospital, electricity provider, telecom service, fuel distributor, police, fire or rescue system. The equivalent of a major news story on any particualr day happening all at once, everywhere for the same reason ( technical problem ) . No one has a plan to deal with the problems this causes. Everyone calls their vendor to ask for support - all at the same time. Everyone tries to find alternative resources - all at once. The systems that are intact begin to fail because they are being over used. Etc, ect, ect.

Spud Master
(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:50 - ID#273112)
@Titanic - agreed - fairly poor movie
Titanic is a looser as a movie:

1 ) Boring plot ( boy meets girl. boy wins girl. snotty white males
design, build and loose great big ship to ice cube ) .
2 ) Brainless adolescent-bate actors/esses
3 ) YMBTDTCAFX - ( Yet more, been there, done that, computer animation FX )
4 ) No Vorlons
5 ) Usual poitically correct crap tossed in

I walked out somewhere just past the halfway point, bored.

As a general comment, Hollywood, and to a lesser extent, it's Hollywoodettes around the world, are just grinding out formulaic, politically correct movies that are frankly crap. Tolerant1 is missing much.

I will breath a sigh of relief when they just drop all pretense and produce movies that are XXX-rated political-party orthodoxy. Why pretend.


(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:54 - ID#31868)
Allen - RE: tic, toc - poof
Yeah, but think about it, what a great time for an Executive Order to set the various governmental yoyo's loose to literally take over the country.

Everything could be accomplished in less than 30 days.

Hmmmmmm, just sailin in the breeze, what a wonderful feelin to be sailing in the breeze.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 13:55 - ID#410114)
DA vs. RJ
Two of the best posters on this site are now on opposite sides of the gold market.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:02 - ID#251268)
Ha all the floor traders
are looking for the chump who bought at 310,good luck,I think
there is a chance we will see a run up on close and more of
the same later this week,if dumping 299 tons only fazes this market for
a couple hours whew,thats like a boxer taking opponents best
shot and smiling,na the BULL is banging on the door of the
shoot and the shorts won't make the 6 second buzzer when it opens HEHAW!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:02 - ID#412172)
Thought you might enjoy this in view of the Titanic subject matter. If this prediction comes true this year, it will be the greatest irony, the movie being released with great fanfare this year. At the time I wrote this I had no idea there would be a film. And so far it looks like I had no idea about the market either!

Date: Sat Aug 23 1997 07:47

Roebear ( @Tort ) :

This market is like the Titanic, it shall cruise ahead majestically with

its unsinkable reputation. But like the Titanic, unknown to its crew and

passengers, it is made of a very brittle alloy which will shatter upon

collision, sending it down in infamy. I think I hear the screams already

and there are not enough lifeboats!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:03 - ID#222231)


What of the LBMA mess?

Gold is cornered. Plain and simple. No complicated theories, no options problems.
The commodity value of gold was forced so low in paper currency terms that all of
the new mined gold, going out some 10 years is spoken for. Between the third world
buying physical gold and the jewelry industry ( same people buying ) there is none
left for the oil states! They do value oil in terms of gold, but not IN the paper
currency price of gold! How much is gold worth in terms of oil value? ( ( ( ( Just stop
supplying gold to them in ultra cheep US$ terms and you will find out by watching
the currency price of oil! ) ) ) ( HOPE LGB READS THIS, BUT I DOUBT IT. HE HAS ALL THE ANSWERS ALREADY. ) In any event, LBMA has traded so much paper/oil/gold that
any rise in the currency price of gold will implode them. The CBs must become the
full primary suppliers of gold or the system as we know it is done.

One last note: No form of paper wealth will survive the financial crush once the CBs
stop selling!



(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:05 - ID#31868)
I remember that post and at the time I thought it fitting, now even more so.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:11 - ID#28593)
and where in this happy world is your money "working"
"Accountants gather round different standards--
Central and eastern Europe--If it is difficult to understand the Germanic tradition, it is almost impossible for the Anglo-Saxon businessman to comprehend the position in the countries of the former Soviet bloc.

Here there is no accounting profession--although western countries are making heroic efforts to try to get one established. The concept of profit has had to be learned from scratch.

The lack of progress by central and eastern European countries in implement IAS has been a major impediment to investment by western companies [but not MF's--SDRer] and to the development of reliable domestic stock exchanges." "Mastering Global Business", FT Special
Report, Mar 1998

(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:11 - ID#412172)
I have the same view of going to the arenas that you do. Unless it is also a reaction from an earlier ( christian/gladiator/? ) life :- )

BTW, somebody put a prop under that Au, would be nice to see it on the sunny side of 300 for a bit longer!!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:13 - ID#412172)
NOW look what I've DONE! 299.70! Back to lurking!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:17 - ID#251268)
Still smiling about that 310 gold buyer
gotta be on line trader who typed 310 instead of 310 ouch
or a discount brokerage like mine,they woudn't go out of their way
to straighten out your order,I think that a good broker is
going to save money for you in the long run

(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:18 - ID#342282)
Colleen re your URL for neutron
Colleen, sweetie, am having trouble accessing. I feel it's my goofy machin's fault. Thanx a lot. Will reply when I solve it, Charlie

The Hatt
(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:19 - ID#294232)

(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:22 - ID#28593)
Tolerant1, JTF--Thanks!
If I'm not VERY careful, you guys will have me making
money! {:- ) )

Tolerant1--comments on movies: Guess this means there are
three of us ( Carl, you and moi ) who didn't see Titantic! And in my
case, no other movie in a long while..."now" movies=not enough to keep the mind alive. IMVHO

(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:26 - ID#251268)
futures price of gold up and holding? hm

(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:26 - ID#340459)
I am losing my F!@#ing Shirt on this Pipe Dream of Gold
Golden aspirations seemed to be now buried deeper than Egyptian Kings.
King Tut had visions of grandeur too like the fellow sufferer ( s0 in this forum......................
end of thether for me. If people like paper today and get their rocks off on virtual reality, Who am I to call them stupid. The herds are smarter Than this Hunter...

Happy fishing folks..

(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:31 - ID#317193)
Is the glass half full or half empty? Depends ( bad word to use ) on your perspective. Tom

(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:43 - ID#288157)
Next, Dr. Pangloss asks, Is your fiat money working in Asia?

Even a casual observer will have been aware that the Japanese, who do not accept IAS for foreign companies trying to list in Tokyo, have been very slow to disclose detailed information about the composition and financial interdepednce of their industrial groupings. This is even more the case in Korea, where secrecy is a way of life.
Mr. Banker, may I introduce you to the concept of DUE DILIGENCE?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:44 - ID#342282)
Pro & con gold
Many appropriate posts last couple of days. After some consideration, It looks like to me there is an attempt to get a LARGE position in the physical by some competent buyer ( s ) . This strictly right brain suspicion, no T/A involved at this point. What do you think?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:46 - ID#340459)
We talk of some unseen forces cornering the market, If they are than they must have lost a lot in
last 20 yrs and so far unable to recover the sunken money. I have bought physical intermittently during 80's, lying like dead weight in Bank locker. Gold is one step forward and three leaps back so far. We talk of Oil producers of Middle East as if they have un limited resources. Most of their budgets are in extensive defecits. Saudi's, Kuwaiti's have all cut their budgets by 25 to 30% this year alone. They are borrowing heavily to keep the their infrastructure afloat. UAE the size of perhaps Greater Metro Toronto has 5 International Airports. They have already steadily spent money on grandiose schemes and were hit by bankrolling Iraq against Iran to stem anti monarchy sweep in the region. They have spent $ 300+ billion in last Gulf War through direct demands by US and buying the old aramament inventories of Uncle Sam and the Queen of england. These wars are a game to recover R/D and dispose old Inventory of Western defense forces. I see a lot of talk about Dinar / Dirham etc.,
Who will accept any economic idea from Muslim countries, All Rich Saudi's are now converting their Rial's into US currency fearing dipping oil revenues into their economies. Arabia has served it's purpose of supplying cheap energy to western industrial machine since begginning of this century, I do not see it changing as Might is always right, Russia a superpower is in the hands of Gangster's. yeltsin with us backing is doing whatever the hell he wants, where is the Red Army and hyped 'evil empire'.

Moral of the Story is that Wall Street and forces therein have proved time and again that 'listen to us or perish'.

Sadly, like weather, we can discuss but cannot change.

Excuse typo's, grammer etc...I am totally pissed off with myself..

(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:46 - ID#289357)

Let me add my voice to the Titanic ( or any other movie ) for at least 10 years...I can buy 'em on VHS cheaper than I can visit the theater.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:47 - ID#307364)
Midwesterner and others re Allegheny Mines Corp.
Back from a long weekend, I now have time to do some extrapolation from the data available for Allegheny Mines.

My calculations are based on the drill results announced last summer. I used the recent depressed base and precious metals prices and I got U.S. $ 85.55 per ton of ore ( Can $ 121,52 ) . Any $ 0.01 change in zinc price means a variation of $ 0.76 per ton.

Based on the number of shares issued ( 12 169 250 ) and with a conversion price of Can $ 0.704 for U.S. $ 1.00, the value of one million tons of ore means approximately Can $ 8.00 of ore value per share ( due to the 80% interest in the property ) .

But these numbers are meaningless because net income is the most important thing to consider. What will be the % of recuperation after dilution ? What will be the operation cost per ton? What will be the value of base metals ? or gold ? when the mine will operate ? Will the compagny be able to extract much ore in an open pit ? And so on. Questions are numerous at this point.

But what is astonishing and gives me excitement, is the fact that a rough calculation gives surprising results. At today depressed metal prices, we can realistically estimate a net income value of about U.S. $ 1.00 per share, for every million tons of ore. The small number of shares issued allows these fine results.

With the perspective for a huge discovery, that means very much for the investor ready to take some risk. Right now, the risk/reward ratio is very positive for somebody willing to invest in the future of Allegheny mines. That future may be very profitable...


(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:51 - ID#238422)
SDRer/Your post 14:11
It's some kind of fashion now to say that
there are no accounting traditions and etc.
in Eastern Europe ( most compaints are about
former republics of the Soviet Union ) , and
"heroic" westerners try to educate stupid Russians,
for example, on the subject on how to make ( calculate )
profits, revenues and etc.

Here is a simple reason that most westerners
DO NOT UNDERSTAND because of complete lack of
knowledge regarding current Russian situation:


For this simple reason, nobody in right mind in Russia
never showed, never shows and will never show any profit...
unless tax code changed.

Do they want to learn from westerners about being robed
and destroyed by the Russian state? No fools there...

By the way, for the same "profit/tax" reason it is not smart
to buy Russian stocks, officially reported profits will never
make these stocks to move up, may be something else will...

(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:51 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Unless you were the one to sell that unfortunate soul the April contract at 310.20, there wasn't squat to be made in gold or silver today by holding. In fact there is mostly red showing in the physical commodities today, except for some minor moves up in a couple. Then we have the relentlessly marching equities. June S&P still headed for 1150. Dow up 100 pts, making up for yesterdays 90 pt loss. After that previous 'correction' down, I just knew this down days would be woosy. Blow off stages are like that. Paper ain't over 'till it's over, but that should be commencing fairly soon.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:58 - ID#257148)
Just a cabin boy, me, but i got a long memory
Roebear 14:04
I don't think you were the first to suspect that this equities market is titanic-like

I think Ted was the first, and a special golden auscar lifejacket goes to him ( just don't wear it Teddo )

Date: Tue Apr 01 1997 08:23 TED ( @capebreton ) :
WOW!! Just snapped out of a long sleep an lookat the losses in
London down 72.1, DAX down 133.12 ( 4.02% ) and Paris cac down
83.81.... Wonder if we'll have a down opening on Wall
Street......S+P futures, if you can believe it, are UP 3.50.....Still
not much interest in the yellow stuff,but hey folks, it's still
early...Those long-term ( novice ) investors..."I'm in IT for the
long-term"....wonder what they're thinkin....can they?....the
leeming mentality will come back to haunt many....Storm is just
startin...thanks for the weather PANDA!!Is this the same storm
that'a blowin across the world financial markets...... large ice-
bergs are floatin in...could we have another "Titanic" on our
hands....Mark ( talkin head on CNBC ) still talkin about positive
opening on Wall Street.....tortfeasor, didn't you mention you are
in Soybeans....long bond down 2 ticks and yield now at 7.09%.....


(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:58 - ID#280215)
Open Interest & Volume Stats??
Anyone have the Gold Open Interest and Volume figures so far today?

By the way, someone ( I'm not sure who ) mentioned Bill Buckler got his Open interest figures for the wrong days. Bill was actually correct. Yesterday ( Monday ) Open interest fell 12,966 contracts with volume about 55,000+ for the 7+ dollar close-up. Friday, Open interest rose 2,015 contracts on volume of 40,000+ on the close up of about 10cents.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 14:58 - ID#237149)
Gold to retest $280.00 level
No follow thru on gold spot price. Looks like its time to short gold agains, we may see it retesting the $280.00 level soon. Italy's announcement concerns me a lot. I think they are just creating smoke, as they do not have a strong position on the ECU. I wouldn't be suprised to see Italy selling gold here soon.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 15:02 - ID#288157)
The WAR on GOLD has several is a Janus face--one facing east....
Dnya, Istanbul, Turkey Mar 24, 1998
Government Takes Precautions against Fundamentalism Council of ministers has decided on a number of precautions for the fight against fundamentalism. PM Yilmaz said that the government was doing its duty and the support of other institutions, especially of the general assembly was a must. The precautions include:

Schools and student hostels founded by private institutions and foundations will be inspected on local level.

Monetary sources of fundamentalism will be investigated by the finance ministry and related state minister.

Punishments for anti-secular activities will be increased.

Law drafts for illegal demonstrations and crime law will be submitted to the Parliament for approval.

Our golden dinar is obviously making headway. Turkey wants VERY badly to
be a "western player"; it is a strategic decision she may regret.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 15:07 - ID#269245)
To men just "sprayed" a bunch of kids in Arkansas - check AP news
At least one dead. Could it be possible that the midwest is becoming a kind of hot-spot? Things in that region seem to be a little tense. - c

(Tue Mar 24 1998 15:11 - ID#288157)
Thanks Oris, that is valuable input--
I imagine you have more than enough to do {:- ) ) , but you
should consider a "Letter to the Editor" of the Financial
Times. I believe you can do that on-line
In our world, Truth, is a rare and precious commodity, and
God knows we work hard to "mine" it out of the devil's bedrock of dis-information. Thanks again!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 15:12 - ID#269245)
I think the conventional way of spelling the #2 is "two," not "to."
Also, the update says these "men" were actually youths and were in custody. - c

(Tue Mar 24 1998 15:15 - ID#269409)
@ JTF re ANOTHER / POG / Humility
JTF, Im somewhat puzzled by your 12:41 question as to how I explain Golds price blip. I already stated it earlier. Yeltsins summary surprise firing of his cabinet, and the blip in oil price caused by weekend agreement with Oil producers. RJ added a couple more good reasons, including short covering and currency market moves.

There is no big mystery to this POG move. Weve seen similar moves dozens of times in the past, in direct response to news events, market related, world economy related, dollar strength related, and world political stability related. No mystery here at all. It certainly doesnt take a rocket scientist to make the connection.

As to ANOTHER, you and I agree that the true believers will try and ascribe the POG move to his prediction of a big buyer, no matter what kind of tortured reasoning it takes to make such a connection. ( Including the long term liquidation of 299 tons announced by Belgium, or changing the timing, or the meaning, or the window of when the prediction really was supposed to begin, etc etc ad nauseum ) .

How this past 2 days Gold action constitutes a new, big time Buyer who will cause a New Gold market to emerge, is beyond me. We certainly see no evidence of such yet.
Eventually we will see a new Gold market, I myself stated three months ago that the worm had turned and $280 was a bottom, but I was just one of a huge chorus of such voices . When the true bull market in Gold does emerge, I suspect itll be tied to strength of the dollar, supply/demand fundamentals, CBs coming to the end of their dishoarding mania, world economy developments, perhaps a drop in equities, and a healthy increase in the inflation rate.

All this will have little or nothing to do with ANOTHER, or his Oil/Gold postulations. The ME oil magnates have been trading their oil for Gold since the 60s. This Gold/Oil connection is no news at all, with 3 major exceptions. Namely,

a ) the ME players are large buyers and thus affect the supply/demand equation, and
b ) Rising oil prices generally contribute to inflationary pressures and
c ) The health of the world economy and individual economies of certain third world nations such as Mexico and Argentina, is somewhat tied to the value of their Oil exports.

To repeat once again for the Zillionth time. I dont begrudge ANOTHERs rightful place on the forum. He may very well have valuable knowledge to impart. Personally, I find the straightforward metals markets experts here, far more valuable. DA, RJ, APH, Realistic, et al.

My earlier comments were not directed as a slam at ANOTHER, merely the latest in a series of reality checks. As to humility, who is the more humble? He who reads a straightforward message from ANOTHER, and interprets the plain meaning thereof, or those who presume to read 15 different, complex levels of hidden mystery meanings into his messages as, as if they were direct revelations of scripture from an imagined deity? Requiring the brilliant analysis our local Kitcoite prophets to interpret the Golden ANNOTHER Tablets for the rest of us ignormauses.

Anyway, I'm all for ANOTHER and his disciples to go on posting like mad...but do expect a little rational critique from the skeptical on ocassion, YES?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 15:22 - ID#338289)
Allen, All: Y2K "Fun" Time
Allen: If you have a moment please take a look at the article at the URL posted below and see if you can tell us which sentence indicates just how seriously the Feds are starting to take Y2K. For extra credit ( grin thingy ) see if you can expand on why the message in that sentence is important. I have to return to my work now but I'll check back in about 5 hours to see what you came up with and add my commentary. Happy hunting.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 15:24 - ID#57236)
Perhaps not!
Rob: RJ is a day trader, and D.A. is a long term ( intermediate term? ) commodities trader. So -- my guess is -- what we have right now is short covering at the gold bottom. We will have a tug of war between the shorts and the longs, but the longs are winning. Just wait, and buy on the 'dips'. I will let you decide how long a dip will take is -- probably weeks to a month.

Rallies in our old gold bear were lasting for about 3 months - max.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 15:26 - ID#287312)
How about 100% annual gains ???
Gentlemen, From Jan,26th to March 20th was 40 trading days less holiday. The Dow gained 16.5% in 40 trading days. This projects a 103% gain this year. No doubt this is a blow-off top. I believe it to be possible for this to last several more months and see possibly a 10,000 Dow. Why ? 120% home loans. Joe Sixpack is getting himself a 120% loan paying off his other two morgages and has several thousand left. He throws the extra in his mutual fund, with the banks blessing. Life is gona be hard for some folks soon.
I had lunch with two Bankers today. One told me I was unAmerican because I have no debt.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 15:28 - ID#288157)
Accountants gather round different standards--Commercial consequences
"These differences are not just of academic interest; they can have
serious practical consequences.

Some years ago, the procurement director of a large US engineering firm told me how they had decided to outsource the manufacture of certain high-precision components and had sent assessment teams to Europe to determine the technical capabilities and financial substance of potential suppliers.

To my surprise, he said that all GERMAN firms on their list had been rejected, not for technical reasons but because they were all financially unsound. This turned out to mean that they had debt/euity rations higher than 5:1 and by US domestic standards probably would have been bust. As each had a major German bank as a lender and shareholder, this assessment seemed a little harsh.

However, he went on to tell me that they had found suitable suppliers in Spain. He nearly passed out when I mentioned the lack of an audit requirement in that country [at that time]."
Stewart Hamilton, Mastering Global Business

Buy Gold and wait a while.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 15:29 - ID#269409)
@Tol,Spud,all ..... Titanic
We can all agree that the art of moviemaking has reached a rather sad low when Titanic takes all the Oscars. It was entertaining, great effects, sets, convincing in bringing the trajedy of Titanic to life......but completely devoid of any brilliant storyline, acting, or plot.

One of my favorite moments though, was seeing the authenticity of a "Barber" dime being used as payment for Rose's sketch! That egocentric director dude, was meticulous about attention to detail!

( Now does anyone else feel Madonna needed only a broom to complete her outfit as the Wicked Witch of the West from Wizard of Oz? )

Voyeur Professor
(Tue Mar 24 1998 15:32 - ID#231101)
Liquidity driving the bull

In case anyone doubts the continuing life of this bull, recent figures for new money reveal that in three days down to March 19, equity funds took in $3.96 billion new dollars! But some like "The Ord Oracle" are still long on gold:

"The XAU appear to have started its run up, closing up today 5.56 points and closing at 76.77. It needs to close above 78.50 on good volume for a valid break out. Still looking for 100 to 110 on this index due in April or May."

Still, gold seems to have yielded to the bears and lost its momemtum today. This is not a good sign.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 15:40 - ID#238422)
Thanks for your kind words.

If you could just imagine what kinds of bookkeeping
tricks Russians use in order to avoid showing any
profits to Uncle Boris, you would be amazed what
the great "accounts" they are... Of course they have
profits....I learned about one of the ways from my Russian
business partner, it is absolutely astonishing!

In general, Russian tax code is #1 reason of Russian
economy problems. Junior will confirm...

(Tue Mar 24 1998 15:43 - ID#238295)
According to Kaplan's site, the big drop in open interest occurred on FRIDAY.

HATT: Gold will move before the paper bull ends. The yellow is a leading, not a lagging, indicator. The big bear in stocks and bonds probably will commence several weeks to several months after POG breaks out decisively.

The fact that gold was able to advance at all today -- when almost all other commodities fell -- is another signal that the tone of the market is steadily imrpoving.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 15:46 - ID#347235)
In reading and lurking only for several days I have come to the conclusion that "Another" is a fraud, he doesn't exist his writings are never the same twice he has no particular style and everyone is spending too much time trying to figure him out. I dont think it worth wasting time on. Guys who know what they are doing ( DA,EJ Robnoel & others ) just ignore him and I think that is the thing to do. He is just a blowhard trying very hard to project a big image.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 15:52 - ID#57236)
My apologies -- Gold bottom -- $280 - agreed
LGB: Appreciate your thoughtful post. Hard to read all the posts when day job distracts. Have to keep food on the table.

Your carefully worded contrarian posts I think are appreciated by all. When you start to 'load it on' - I often lose track of what you are saying.

I agree with your comments that we should always think for ourselves, and not follow the advice of any one person. I did that a few times when I was inexperienced -- was with the Aden sisters, and John Dessauer -- lost a bundle.

I think we need to remember that there always will be new inexerienced visitors to Kitco that don't know enough to know how to respond to investment advice -- free or at $200+/year -- this always has been a problem with investing ( or life ) - and always will be.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 15:56 - ID#31868)
I forgot to mention TNX - Tan Range - at the current price I believe it is a steal. Buy, forget it and when gold has moved up even $15 or $20 she will move upwards nicely IMVHO

(Tue Mar 24 1998 15:56 - ID#269409)
Money supply
Tuesday March 24, 3:15 pm Eastern Time

U.S. money supply growth no worry yet -economists

By Kathie O'Donnell

NEW YORK, March 24 ( Reuters ) - Rapid money supply growth had a group of leading economists known as the Shadow Open Market
Committee ( SOMC ) calling for tighter credit last week, but some experts say, this time, the Shadow doesn't know.

``They look at money and see the exact opposite of what I see,'' said Brian Wesbury, chief economist at Griffin Kubik Stephens &
Thompson Inc., adding that money growth has been demand driven, not supply driven. ``And, as long as it's demand driven then it's not

Helping to fuel demand is the increasing use of U.S. dollars or dollar-denominated assets as a substitute for a host of different
currencies, he said.

``Even Cuba has stores where only dollars are accepted, and we have an embargo against Cuba,'' Wesbury noted.

Asia's economic woes have also contributed to U.S. money supply expansion, the economist said. Difficulties there have sharply
increased demand for dollars during the past six months, he said.

Yet another factor in money supply growth stems from U.S. interest rates that are relatively high compared to the inflation rate,
Wesbury said.

``We're offering not only a safe haven, but very high real returns,'' he said. ``You couldn't ask for a better currency in terms of a safe

The SOMC urged the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee to hike interest rates to get M2 money supply growth down to 4 percent
from its current level of around 6 percent. SOMC Chairman Allan Meltzer said the 5.5 percent federal funds rate should be hiked by
``whatever rise is necessary'' to slow M2 growth.

Scott Grannis, chief economist at Western Asset Management Company, agreed with Wesbury that the SOMC failed to look at the
demand side of the money supply equation.

``The Shadow Open Market Committee, those guys need to wake up and smell the coffee,'' he said. ``Pure monetarists assume that
demand for money is always constant, and it's definitely not; it does change.''

Money growth is only inflationary when supply exceeds demand, Grannis said.

``The monetarists look only at supply,'' he said. ``They forget about the demand.''

Grannis also noted Asian economic troubles and declining U.S. inflation as factors fueling demand for U.S. dollars.

``In inflation, money demand falls because money becomes like a hot potato, and you want to spend it as fast as you can,'' Grannis said,
adding that just the opposite occurs when inflation declines.

``Then you are willing to hold onto money longer, which is a way of saying that money demand rises,'' the economist said.

Money is ``a very attractive asset'' now, and, because investors are holding onto more of it these days, money supply is growing, he

``And it's not inflationary at all,'' Grannis said. ``It's a very healthy sign.''

John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's Investors Service, said rapid growth of the monetary aggregates does not justify a near-term
rate hike. But he said that while rising money supply will probably not prompt the Fed to raise interest rates within the next three
months, the final quarter of 1998 could be a different story.

``Once it becomes apparent that this very rapid pace of economic expansion, be it M2 or M3, is materially increasing inflation risks,
then we can look for the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates,'' the economist said.

Lonski said the Fed places less emphasis on money supply than the SOMC does.

``The Federal Reserve perhaps still attaches secondary importance to the money growth measures, unlike the Shadow Open Market
Committee,'' Lonski said. ``They make no bones about it; they think the Fed should go ahead and hike interest rates right away.''

But while the Fed is less apt than the SOMC to focus on money supply, last month's Humphrey-Hawkins testimony reveals money supply
is growing substantially faster than Fed targets, Lonski said.

For M2, the Fed outlined a target range of one percent to five percent, a spokesman there confirmed. As of February 1998, M2 was
growing by 6.3 percent year over year. The Fed's M3 target was two percent through 6.0 percent. By February 1998, year-over-year
growth for M3 was at 9.3 percent, the spokesman said.

``That's even higher relative to the upper end of its target range,'' Lonski said.

While Asian economies remain embattled, European economies appear to be doing better than anticipated, he said.

In a recent report, Lonski wrote: ``While U.S. merchandise exports to the Pacific Rim experienced a 2.6-percent yearly setback during
the two months ended January 1998, U.S. exports to the rest of the world advanced by 15.7 percent yearly for the same period.

``And when you combine this with rapid money growth, which is to say rapid liquidity growth, the Fed's next move, though not within
the next several months, but sometime later in the second half of this year, will be to hike interest rates,'' Lonski added.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 15:57 - ID#238295)
theft in SA
SA gold mines apparently losing a third of ther profits to theft on average. That undoubtedfly is a key facvtor behind their lower valuation relative to the NA mines. But if they attack the problem seriously, this "theft" discount could be reduced.

Gold valued at R1,6bn stolen from SA mines ( Business Day )

Gold theft from SA mines is denting the profitability of the industry, which could
otherwise have reported average profits at least a third higher last year according to
estimates by the Chamber of Mines. The chamber has no firm figure for last year, but,
based on statistics from chamber members in 1996, the eradication of gold theft would
have helped gold mines to 29% higher profits. It is estimated about 28 tons of gold was
stolen from SA mines in 1996.


(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:00 - ID#31868)
I think it was JTF who posted the numbered warnings we should look
for which could/would lead to a major downturn signal. UNEMPLOYMENT - when these numbers start coming in during the next several months it will be apparent to everyone that not all of US are sharing in the wealth. IMTCO

(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:00 - ID#246224)
fundiMETAList@the Y2K Funny Farm
"Noting that efforts have just begun to identify points where data is exchanged among different levels of government, Hoskinen ( head of Presidential Year 2000 Commitee ) said he has already met with the Federal Emergency Management Agency to initiate talks with state and local disaster-relief agencies to prepare contingency plans."

'The Federal Government will not be able to maintain its place in governance of the country after Y2K. It will be "every State and County for themselves".'

It is good to hear they are planning for this level of disruption. I grieve for our country. I only hope they will do more than simply talk. A few well placed and worded Executive Orders would do much to move some butts into higher gear. My greatest concern is the loss of civil authority ( ie - police and State National Guards, etc ) . Cities will burn and be emptied of all those who have a means to leave. They will become war zones of gangs and jungles. Only the animals will have guns.

Unfortunately many of the worst possible scenarios presented in The Great Reckoning many be played out here over the next twenty or thirty years.

This is judgement from God for our arrogance and self idolization. It is literally a destruction of the "images" which we have made to worship rather than to worship Him. Computer technology is in its essence an imaging of human will ( consider the language used - 'commands', etc.. This vain imagination is going to be destroyed. Things really haven't changed that much since Isaiah's day have they?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:09 - ID#316238)
Anyone with any posts relevant to the Veneroso conference of this afternoon? Advance thanks.

Carpe Aurem
(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:14 - ID#339292)
Attention All Kitcoites :

Please be apprised of a conference call on GOLD featuring the venerable Frank Veneroso - someone who, I would think, should be known to most visitors of this forum. It begins at 1:40 PST and one may begin dialing at 1:30 PST at any of the following numbers and you may or may not need this access code ( 5754 ) :

1 604 517 3400

1 604 527 9450

1 604 527 9451

1 604 527 9452

1 604 527 6453

1 604 527 6454

Please do dial in, if you have the means. Mr. Veneroso is a widely respected and consulted gold analyst out of Connecticut.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:18 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.75

(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:19 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .254

(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:21 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 46.69

(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:23 - ID#269245)
Bart and all
Does anyone care that entire copywritten news articles are reprinted here and copywritten in someone elses name?? I don't know the law, but I think this is a serious violation - let alone being disrespectful of the author. - c

(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:23 - ID#410198)
clone,it was not men but children sad 11 and 13 America now looks like it's leader,hang in there
Midas,to the winner goes the spoils

(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:25 - ID#410194)
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released this afternoon:

Gold: Unchanged at 567,574 troy ounces

Silver: Fell 1,030,883 ( ! ) troy ounces to 88,917,523 -An 18 year low

Copper: Fell 160 short tonnes to 112,476

(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:27 - ID#252150)
Pete's 07:34@Ole Prospector
I'm the James who asked her who would be selling AU @ 265 & lower. She is
a very savvy Lady & although her predictions & manipulation/machination theories seemed too far out when POG was 350, they are very believable to me today. Thanks in large part to her, I got disillusioned with BGO/AZS,
got out before the big decline & managed to preserve my triple.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:27 - ID#57236)
It wasn't me!
tolerant1: Unemployment is a usually a lagging indicator -- but in this crazy, mixed up market, who knows? My guess is that the most important information will be something about when the current surge with banks getting into the investment mania ends, and when the credit gurus are able to squeeze the last drop of blood from the average investor. 125% house loan in Calif are an example. All of those baby boomer retirement accounts and scared foreign investors are adding to the bull. I think much what is happening right now is that alot of less than honest ( or naive ) brokers are still drumming up business. When that fades, the mania will end. I am still amazed that the Old Man knew this would happen, and is raking it in on the spoos. Here most of us are bystanders.

But -- when gold does finally rally, it will make up for years of waiting. That is one problem with gold -- it is like flying an airplane. Hours of boredom -- with minutes of intense excitement. Same way with being an Anesthesiologist.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:30 - ID#269245)
Robnoel - yeah, the first article said "men" and was quickly corrected to say "youths."
This slaughter has little to do with gold, but I thought it was worthwhile to recognize on this forum ( a group that actually seems to be moved by such events! ) - c

(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:30 - ID#266105)
@arusa/repost/america's net worth

(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:36 - ID#25255)
Yours is the most encouraging post this P.M.-- as always level headed and straight from the shoulder.

Of course one of the "Talking Heads" on CNBC was already verbally downcasting Au at the close today. Actually it was one of ML's finest saying he expected gold to return to 288.

Fortunately for us "Pride Goteth Before A Fall", and I expect all the Anti-Gold Mouthers to eat their words in coming weeks--if you can find these people when we hit 316. Just remember about your entropic conclusions: An isoentropic system is quasi-static, adiabatic and REVERSIBLE.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:37 - ID#269245)
JTF - I don't know about you,
but riding a plane is never boring to me. I am always on edge, fearing a sudden CRASH!! I would compare airplnes more to the DOW - it's a LONG WAY DOWN! Let gold be our parachute and a soft landing. Boy Scouts: BE PREPARED. - c

(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:40 - ID#402260)

Hello Boris?... Boris....can you speak up I can hardly hear you.Yeah...
that's better.I'ts me, Allen the Green Machine Span. Can you believe this market...up another friggin 88 pts.... Da Mother of All Bulls.
Betcha we hit 12,500 on the Dow by September! ....what do you mean
No Vay Jose....It's a done deal...Yeah, it's a going away present for
Mr. Rubin.....but that's not why I called. The real reason is that we
would like to make an offer to buy ....uh ... to control assume
ownership of your beloved homeland much like we did with Alaska.
I mean we are going to run out of oil sooner than the world thinks and
thought maybe you would at least entertain the idea by having lunch with me and Don the Trump-ster next Friday. We'll discuss the details over some corn dogs. What do ya think....Boris?.....Boris?.......helloooo
Booooris.... Soon to be a major motion picture

(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:48 - ID#252150)
Midas@Your ME Analysis
I think it's right on & stated my views in a similar vein, although not as well as you. It's difficult for people to believe that those Countries are essentially broke, but because they have sqandered their wealth on armaments & unecessary infrastructure, that's what it comes down to. This does,nt bode well for the POO or POG.
Sorry that you are experiencing a bad spell in these trecherous mkts & hope that your investments get headed in the right direction.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:51 - ID#280245)
It happens that one can devise a game, devise the rules, teach the game to others, and
they get sooo good that they can "Beat You At Your Own Game!"
Hong Kong Busienss Standard Wed Mar 25 1998

`Honest' bankrupts get reprieve By David Evans

A NEW bankruptcy law will take effect on Sunday bringing Hong Kong into line with other countries in the region.

An estimated 2,300 bankruptcy cases over eight years old and about 1,045 between 31/2 and eight years old will qualify for
automatic discharge under the new law, an expert said.

``Generally most bankrupts have ended up in bankruptcy because of bad luck or bad investments,'' John Toohey of Arthur
Anderson said.

``Those people shouldn't be penalised for the rest of their lives.''

(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:52 - ID#225273)
zeke: thanks
We didn't get the afternoon strength I was looking for. I'll analyze the charts in a couple of hours and be back with more then. Gold rose about $14 in five days, not bad. It's due for a pullback. But therein lies the rub. For the past two years, the pullbacks have snuffed the rally. I think things have changed this time, but don't know absolutely, positively just yet.
zeke, when you say: "Just remember about your entropic conclusions: An isoentropic system is quasi-static, adiabatic and REVERSIBLE," I have to agree.

The Preacher

The Hermit
(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:52 - ID#374232)
@ Allen(USA) - your 13:45
Good post, Sir. Y2k is a serious matter! Thank you.


The Hermit

(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:55 - ID#25255)
Gold Stocks which held their Highs
High hangers today included Ashanti ( ASL ) , Freeport Mac ( common ) , Meridian ( MDG ) , Pan Am silver ( PAASF. Can anyone ( or noone ) comment on why these issues don't pull back with the pack? I so wanted to buy some ASL for my kids, it runs like "Spend-a-buck".

Voyeur Professor
(Tue Mar 24 1998 16:56 - ID#231101)
All hail the bull god!

Whenever a poster hits the nail on the head, I believe we should pay attention. Yesterdays post by LGB at 16:55, uttered in the very midst of our euphoria over the uptick in gold, had this to say:
"Gold, unable to sustain above $300, even with instability in Russia. . . ."
There has been much elation and despair on this forum, much cheerleading and much fatalism. Much of the tone here represents the exacerbated condition which gold investors have endured now since the collapse in prices that began last January. All too often posters have yielded to hysteria, certainly justified if one has risked some egg money that has not come to fruition. But if we regard LGBs perceptive view, we will encounter the heart of an important understanding about golds future. Gold will not move until the psychology of this market is broken, and gentlemen and ladies, it surely has not collapsed. In fact, a sober look at this bulls ability to sustain itself compels us to seriously regard the formidable and entrenched force that it represents. So long as investors perceive the markets power to overcome a sullied president, poor earnings, apocalyptic currency events in Asia, hyperbolic equity valuations, outrageous yield expectations, and the repudiation of almost every traditional measure of market behaviorthen we ignore the phenomenon this bull has become. I might even risk calling it mythic in its proportions; it seems larger-than-live, transcendent. Gold faces an uphill battle. That it could not triumph for 24 hours, tells us much about its adversary, paper!
I'm sure many of you know of the ancient worship of the bull. If you have travelled to Knossos on the Isle of Crete, you would have experienced the great pleasure of witnessing drawings on the walls of the Palace of Knossos--drawings representing the mysterious rites of "bull leaping." Greek mythology tells many stories of Zeus' adopting the form of a bull to further his Clinton-like sexual thirst. One of the most important myths concerns the so-called "Rape of Europa," a myth that served as an explanation of the founding of Europe. Today we might speak of "The Rape of Americana," for certainly this bull has gained full control.
My apologies for the lecture.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 17:02 - ID#31868)
Midas_A - James
Wall Street is not invincible, the US Govt and the US$ are not invincible. Hold your metal, a day and a series of days after that is coming, and all of the preceding will snap like twigs in the economic wind. You won't get a notice in the mail, you won't see it coming at all, it will simply arrive and one and all will look surprised, when it really takes hold, one and all will find their jaws on the floor.

Do not be fooled by timing. Being prepared means the timing does not matter, sorta like a squall coming out of nowhere when you are driving, prepared your merely reach for the windshield wiper control.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 17:12 - ID#280245)
Well, they have all those lovely new euro-bond recipts to lend dont cha know...
HK Standard Business Post Wed Mar 25 1998
Belgian Bank launches 10pc mortgages
Belgian Bank on Wednesday launches a mortgage lending scheme with an annual interest rate of 10 per cent to buyers of flats under the Housing Authority's Tenants' Purchase Scheme.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 17:15 - ID#359316)
Bears into Bulls (This is not a joke, yes?)
The stock market bull is not over until the last bear has capitulated.
Investors may develop a fear of heights above DOW 10000.


The Hermit
(Tue Mar 24 1998 17:16 - ID#374232)
@ fundaMETAList and Allen(USA) - Y2k
Gentlemen, your posts of 15:22 and 16:00 are most interesting. So, FEMA is going to prepare contingency plans. They tend to be a nasty outfit. Speaking of contingency plans, President Clinton's executive orders and FEMA the following web site may be of interest.

Thank you again for your posts on Y2k. Highly interesting!


The Hermit

(Tue Mar 24 1998 17:19 - ID#372262)
How much does that conference call cost with Mr. Veneroso?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 17:21 - ID#411259)
..... The LAST word on Titanic, Yes? .....

For those of you who disparage the movie, be reminded of your youth, and bury your cynicism deep. True, the story was a bit sappy and melodramatic, but that is exactly what was required to play against the backdrop of the legendary ship. The trick was to tell a story, not just show a boat. I found the effects to be transparent at times, but I could care less. The tie in with present day gave the movie its soul and sense of perceptive. The "boy from the wrong side of the tracks" story has been told before, but rarely with such simple open honesty.

Even the necklace ( which I thought was a distraction throughout ) proved to be the pivotal point of understanding - for me at least - That old Rose could have cared less about telling her story. She had no need to open the secret she held her entire life, she simply needed a boat ride to a funeral. The price of the ticket was the story, but she was there to bury her lost love and, in a very real sense, consummate her marriage to him, if not in life, than in destiny. The cutaway to the photos of young Rose living a full life, experiencing many of the things she and Jack spoke of, was a good a conclusion to a story as I have ever seen. OK, I admit it, I'm a sucker for a good love story - and this was a good one.

Some one posted here that they would rather watch a movie on the VCR. That is seeing half the movie at best. 50% of the film must by cut to fit the format of your TV screen. This "pan & scan" editing reduces the movie to a shell of its original form. I'm very pleased that DVD is finally here, so you can choose to watch in wide screen format.

As for the experience of the movies - and that is what they are: MOVIES, not "films" as pseudo Hollywood types and critics like to call them - I would rather see it on the big screen than the little set. Perhaps it is because they are building so many new theater hereabouts. Stadium style seating, high back seats, curved screen, incredible sound, all have improved the movie going experience.

I have made it a life study in "time dynamics" to achieve the ability to walk into the theater just as the lights go down, no waiting about in bright theaters for this fellow. When the lights do go down and the curtain draws, reality is bent, and disbelief is suspended. The experience is very personal even though the theater is filled with people all around you. Each takes the images and story in their own way, and no two will have seen exactly the same story. This shared experience can greatly enhance the movie. "As Good as it Gets" would have not been the same movie, were it not for the laughter of the audience. I know this is so, because I decided to see it again and the theater was nearly empty. The few and muted chuckles did not sweep me away as they had in the original viewing.

I saw Titanic on the day it was released, and the theater was filled with teenage girls. The collective pheromones released by this dreamy eyed lot when, "Leo" first appeared on screen was something to experience. Trust me on this.

Sold gold at $302. Silver has me worried, looking for the close above $6.40 like everybody else. Got lots-o-platinum, will buy more soon. As for palladium. Homey don't play dat.


(Tue Mar 24 1998 17:29 - ID#31868)
RJ - So that is why
movie theaters smell like low tide to me.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 17:33 - ID#269245)
Xerox to cut 10,000 jobs - go figure!
One thing I should have mentioned after the last employment report is the effects of temperary agencies. Most of my freinds with college degrees work for such agencies. "Temps" are counted as employed. I count them as "slaves." By the way, I think there is something in the Constitional Ammendments that makes slavery illegal, but who really cares anyway? The news of Xerox does not include the number of temps that will be "let go." These "temps" will obviously be the first to go in any downsizing company trying to compete with business overseas. Then the regular employees will go - and if they are lucky, they might get rehired as temps ( just for the holidays, of course! ) . The definition of "employed" has changed over the years, and that is something we must consider. Temps are why unemployment figures are so low and why we can expect to see employment figures act differently in the future. They paint a pretty, rosy picture. Sometimes, it helps us more to consider the frame in which the picture is set.

My regards to all those who have lost or will loose their jobs as a result of this currency revolution! I hope you are not in debt. Perhaps you have some gold in the house... - c

(Tue Mar 24 1998 17:34 - ID#410198)
RJ,you could not be more wrong,rather than plain read Elizabeth Farah

(Tue Mar 24 1998 17:37 - ID#410198)
RJ sorry the ex in explain got lost in cyberspace

(Tue Mar 24 1998 17:37 - ID#57236)
Failed Gold bull? Still has a pulse.
Voyeur Professor: I think it is too early to conclude that our partially failed one-day surge is a sign of disaster. Yes - much of it was a flash in the pan, but look back over the last three months. Both gold and gold stocks had a short term bottom, and have rallied up from it -- this rally is longer than any bear market rally we have seen so far since the beginning of 1996. A DOW bull will be just what we need to scare a few dollars into gold -- only need all the equity in Coca Cola.

So -- unless our short term rally fissles and we make new lows, I am not worried. I will just add to my position on the next bottom. I consider D.A.'s post highly significant -- namely that his commodities program is signalling a long term gold bull.

I will be happy if we reach $360/oz by December. Given what is happening to M3 and with saturated emplyment figures that is highly likely. The surge in public debt is probably ignored by most except us gold bug types.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 17:41 - ID#210235)
@310 April gold sale
It's hard for me to understand how the same group of people who agree that some poor idiot erred in typing 310 for a purchase of April gold, when the same could be had for 301, can believe that some great, if occult ( hidden from our view ) statement might be made by an oil baron by insisting on purchasing that huge amount of Belgian gold at 15 over spot. Don't see any genius there, can think of several better ways to use the same money to better advantage.

My suspicion is that Belgium sold it to another CB, just as our banks pass around unsellable foreclosed houses when the auction price is too high. It's a paper sale but meaningless. As for some brilliant statement to the world of finance, The emperor has no clothes.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 17:41 - ID#411259)
..... Oooooooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhh .....

Robnoel -

Read the article. That that woman probably has very few orgasms.

Charles Keeling
(Tue Mar 24 1998 17:47 - ID#344225)
@ FundaMETAList RE: Y2K quiz
Looks like the FEDS are ready to throw
in the towell on on Y2K fix and turn control
over to the Fed Disaster Team.

Still 21 months to go before "D DAY", and it
is already being accepted as a fete acompli.

My reaction: Buy one year PUT LEAPS on the
S & P 500 about June 1, 1998. Then, if
possible buy more PUT LEAPS on Jan 3, 1999.

When we get into early 1999 everyone will be
in total panic. Bank runs will begin;
hoarding will commence; stocks will sell of
and GOLD will soar. The sale of portable
generators will reach a cresendo and people
will be storing extra gasoline on premisis.
Just In Time Inventory systems will fail, and
store shelves will be bare of batteries,
flashlights, lanterns, and weapons.

On 1-1-00 Bill Clintons bridge to the 21st
century will appear out of the haze as a
six foot plank attached to the TITANIC.

GLOOM & DOOM.....I LOVE IT. But not to fear-
my resume is being updated reflecting my 30
years as a Programmer/Analyst & Manager of
Systems for a major S & P 500 Computer firm. I
I will enter the fray in order to be on the
front lines when the ship of State hits the

As a Programmer for a major S & L in 1963 I
noticed the "glitch" of the one byte year and
I said to management: Hey-this will only
suffice until the end of 1999. Then what?

The answer: Dont worry about that, we will
all be retired or dead and gone by then.

Our system came with this one byte field for
the year pre-programmed in by the factory who
made the computer. It was embedded in the
software that was known as the untouchable

In later years, the word was: Dont worry,
the new PC Technology will replace all of our
application systems and hardware and everything
will be re-written. That was in 1980-81.

Just like many programmers/analysts I put in
hundreds of systems while being ever mindful
of the "glitch" involving the arithmetic that
would go bad in the year 00. It was like
building a huge 100 story skyscraper on a
faulty foundation.

No one could ever convince the TOP BRASS to
budget for this coming fiasco. Everyone knew
it. We were too busy fighting everyday brush
fires and meeting constant deadlines to turn
our attention to something that would not be
immediately productive.

I retired in 1992 as President of my own
company after selling and installing systems
throughout the Caribbean and Latin America.
Finally the problem is recognized, and budgets
have been allocated to fix this problem.

Should I make myself available at $50.00 per
hour as a consultant and programmer? Or
should I just pop open a bottle of champagne
on New Years Eve of 99 and make a toast to
Bill Clinton's "bridge to the 21st Century."?

BAL spoken here. Also, machine language,
COBOL, and NEAT/3 level 2.

The one and only:

Chuck Keeling the master
of absolute programming code.


Yes indeed. I am invested in Gold and Silver
with the full knowledge that the SH_T will
hit the fan in the year 00.

Hoskinen said he has already met with the
Federal Emergency Management Agency to
initiate talks with state and local
disaster-relief agencies to prepare
contingency plans.

David Yardeni, chief economist at Deutsche
Morgan Grenfell, the investment banking arm
of Deutsche Bank, says that's not enough.
"The government is admitting they are not
going to make it, and that is totally
unacceptable," Yardeni says.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 17:49 - ID#269245)
If movies MUST be reviewed on this investors dicussion group...
please allow me to contribute my opinions as well

- NOT!

Bart, perhaps you could open another discussion group for the show critics. Meanwhile, those who want to concern themselves with REAL LIFE will continue to comment about how these shows ( enjoyable nontheless ) , and the media, are indirectly accountable for the niavity and ignorance most have when it comes to reality. - c

(Tue Mar 24 1998 17:51 - ID#408228)
Yet another RE: Another
First, I wish to apologize for the length and subject of this post, but..

Ive watched with interest the reaction at this forum to Anothers prediction of much higher gold prices. Since I stop by only occasionally, the level of attention given his thoughts puzzled me. I wrote it off to the promise of rain ( higher, active POG ) in a community that had suffered a long drought.

Thoughtfully, someone last night was kind enough to leave a record of Anothers posts, which I dutifully read. They are intelligently written, and worthy of attention if only because of their controversial nature. I come from a western background, but have been a trader-investor for a while, am well informed but by no means an insider, if such a thing exists, and keep my own counsel ( and am amazed at the occasional stupidity of the company that I keep! ) . Coming from this perspective, I am troubled by some of the logic and facts that Another marshals as his argument.

First, in a market, it is possible to control a price for a while, but it is a great deal easier to ride the market in the direction that its going. Thus it makes sense that Saudi Arabia could put on a multi-year oil for gold trade at new price levels. They have oil, whose marginal cost of production is perhaps 10 cents/bbl., so they could choose to sell oil for gold.

But, if they did so, what would it gain them? Yes, it would provide a large mark-to-market profit on their gold reserves, but if you are the person pegging the price, to whom do you sell? The Hunts found out about the creation of a one way market in silver, and if memory serves me correctly, there was Arab involvement. It did not help. The women of the world would happily take the other side of the trade, selling gold necklaces in exchange for consumer goods. The people of India would be ecstatic sellers at the prices mentioned, and would anyone buy gold jewelry at those prices?

Yes, the price of oil is probably kept at a low level to assure demand, and it makes sense that there is a dollar-oil agreement. But as a store of value, would a Saudi prefer to keep oil in the ground at $12/bbl, or $1000+ gold. Perhaps a bit of both, but why would a nation that has traded for a living for centuries decide to cheapen what they own in bulk for what they have less of, and at a price that they then couldnt sell without taking a huge loss? They may wish to wean their economy away from a dollar basis, but the random economic dislocations a gold revaluation would cause might be too great a risk to the world economy, and thus the oil market, which is, after all, their reserve asset.

Anothers posts also conveniently forgot to mention that the Arab oil embargo of 1974 did help raise the price of oil, and the huge outpouring of effort by the west to find and conserve oil had a negative impact on its price. Likewise, the behavior of the Hunts caused hard-rock miners to look almost exclusively for precious metals for over a decade. This has had the same effect on the price of gold. Only now, with the Pegasus and Royal Oak-type problems, has it become highly unfashionable for bankers to lend to gold projects. This change in lending attitude is the most reliable portent of a bull market, because it directly affects supply. Unfortunately, it isnt the up 500% tomorrow kind of news, but it argues that the seeds of higher prices are now being planted.

The Saudi govt. isnt dumb, and hires bright advisors. They were educated in the west, and probably were taught about Keynes aversion to gold. If they know that the western seller is culturally likely to offer gold at well under $1000, why on earth would they pay so very much so quickly? To impress Jodie Foster?

As to paper gold and derivatives, it may be worthwhile to consider that gold is certainly not unique in having multiples of derivatives per physical unit. Look at the US Dollar!!! After all, bank loans ( not to mention the whole cornucopia of hedging devices ) are assets that derive from the dollar. IMHO, the reason for the Asian financial crisis is the mismatch of Asian based assets that generate a mix of dollar and Asian currency income, vs. dollar-based liabilities. Because of caution due to new BIS rules, the Japanese banks reduced their lending to the region. Seeing that, Citibank followed suit. The dollar-denominated loans were called in and the Asian nations were, and are, massively short dollars. This short squeeze resulted in a reduction in liquidity, which brought about the chain-reaction of debt defaults that we have today. This could maybe happen in gold, but if the Central Banks supply physical gold to the market at higher prices, the possibility of large, discontinuous changes in price, which is the bane of a derivative traders existence, would be unlikely to occur.

The question that next arises is, who stands to benefit the most from reduced option selling, or physical gold buying that might occur because of Anothers posts. The answer, and perhaps the source of the posts, likely lies with a gold producer or derivatives house that needs to sell options and metal to keep their business afloat. I apologize for my display of cynicism, but 20+ years of dealing in markets have made me this way.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 17:51 - ID#57236)
Fellow Kitcoites, help is on the way for Gold -- heading home.
Ron Brown has risen from the grave 'so to speak'.

Spud Master
(Tue Mar 24 1998 17:53 - ID#273112)
In my "youth" I watch the TV serial "Flash Gordon" - cheasy props, costume, etc - but excellent plot & story. Your imagination was engauged.

In my "old age" I watch the movie "Titanic" - excellent props, graphics, and FX - but cheasy story & plot. Your imagination shuts down.

There's all the diference in the world, lad.


(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:04 - ID#269245)
If I had made your observations, I wouldn't be apologizing. Thank you for your well-thought insights ( esp. dollar derivatives! ) . Gives me something to think about. For a minute, I was trying to get Flash Gordan and The Titanic out of my brain - back on track now... I think! - c

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:07 - ID#280245)
This paragraph, in what was otherwise a tedious read, is VERY interesting....
Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four on International Monetary Affairs--April 27, 1997 [Excerpt]

3. The consequences of introducing the single currency as a result of EMU are bound to be far-reaching for the international monetary system. There is therefore an urgent need for the IMF to exercise leadership to ensure that the transition to a TRIPOLAR currency system proceeds with much closer international coordination to minimize instability in the exchange and capital markets and to enhance the prospects for global prosperity. There are major implications of EMU for Fund surveillance, and it
is important to ensure that the current, undesirable asymmetries in
the application of surveillance are not further intensified by
the advent of EMU.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:07 - ID#269409)
DOW to keep blastin higher?
Dow poised to bust through another milestone

By Richard Jacobsen

NEW YORK, March 24 ( Reuters ) - The Dow industrial average on Tuesday set itself up for an assault on yet another milestone.

Analysts expect the Dow 9,000 mark to fall shortly, as part of the rally that has tacked on over 1,300 points since the stock market's
1998 lows in early January.

``I think 9,000 will be just like all those other milestones have been,'' said Robert Dickey, technical analyst at Dain Raucher. ``We'll
blast right through it.''

The Dow rumbled past 7,000 on February 13, 1997 and knocked off 8,000 on July 16.

The Dow finished Tuesday up 88.19 points, or one percent, at 8904.44.

For the year it is up 996 points, or 12.6 percent.

More impressively, the average has tacked on 1,324 points, or 17.5 percent, since its 1998 closing low of 7580 on January 9.

Dickey expected the widely watched gauge of 30 blue chip stocks to falter at about 9100 and perhaps retrace about 500 points in a

But stocks have shown startling resilience in the face of bearish news, including earnings warnings from market heavyweights Intel
Corp. ( INTC - news ) and Motorola Inc. ( MOT - news ) and Monday's spike in world crude prices.

Firms that track forecasts for corporate profits are also saying that Wall Street analysts expect first quarter earnings to be at a six-year

"The market's turning a deaf ear to that," Dickey said.

While at the current rate 9,000 appears inevitable, some analysts said that, after such a steep climb, the Dow may run out of steam in the
next few sessions.

One factor could be the phenomenon of portfolio ``window dressing'' under which fund managers make last minute sales or purchases
of stocks at the end of the quarter, which ends next Tuesday.

Lackluster performance this quarter by some leading high tech stocks, including Intel, could lead some money managers to sell those
shares before the quarter is done, said Gregory Nie, technical analyst, EVEREN Securities.

"It may make 9,000 a bit of a hurdle temporarily," he said.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:08 - ID#57236)
I think our gold rally will be multifactorial when it comes
All: We must wait -- the patient ( the USA ) will eventually figure out that it is sick, and start looking for the truth. I am not looking forward to that time, but I am convinced that cycles of up and down are an essential part of our existence. Without natural cycles, entropy reversal 'eddies' could not have permitted intelligent life to exist in the first place. So -- we are partially driven by natural cycles we do not recognize consciously.

We must experience the natural cycles between living in a 'fiat' currency dream world, and a world without debt ( or at least much less debt ) .

It will be painful -- it is unfortunate that we do not have a 'collective' memory where all humans remember all previous human mistakes. Many things must be relearned after several generations of forgetting past lessons.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:09 - ID#253153)
Gold Stocks holding firm
Gold stocks are beginning to exhibit strength. Today action was part of the base building process. Once the Gold price break decisively above $300-315 I expect the mining shares to accelerate on the upside. I suspect that we will see $500+ for Gold by the summer.Hang in there,the mining shares are still cheap and being accumulated.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:09 - ID#348127)

Is their a psychologist in the house? I have to wonder what has made this group of individuals think the way they do. Something must have happened along the way which gave us all a vision of things to come. It seems that most if not all posters here are aware that something is terribly wrong. The question is not if but when will Sht hit the fan. The answer is -- No one poster on kitco knows, but we all feel it coming. My little tip for the day would be to watch SSC. Ithink this litttle stock will ride the silver wave to 4 bucks '

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:20 - ID#269409)
@ Voyeur Prof., RJ
Voyeur Prof....thanks for recognition and your post is an excellent steadying influence on the ocassional "overexuberance" we see here re Gold. The day will come, in the not distant future, when Gold will shine again. Till then, let's remain rational about the stuff, lest we become lost souls like the 49'rs! ( Gold mining maniacs not football team dammit )

RJ, Enjoyed your Titanic review. While I had given it a "semi" pan earlier, I pretty much agree with every thing you said. Certainly it was an entertaining film and should only be seen on big screen, preferably in ultra THX stero.

Clone.....Pound sand.....or find a contributory remark, whichever comes first.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:20 - ID#317193)
The Gold "BULL"
This is an observation from one who has lurked about for some time at Kitco. I'm not adverse to the stock market although out since January ( darn ) , to risky at this point in time. Gold jumps $7+ and does not retrace the next day and the mood is somber. WHY? Perhaps, most here have been conditioned by the last several years to expect gold to go down. Maybe Farfel is correct, negativism here is bullish. Gold is technically within a few dollars of it's bottom. Tops and bottoms do not last. Change is lifes way of telling you your not dead. Expect change and plan for it. Gold will rise soon. The DOW will bottom soon. Look at your charts. Look at history. Don't be overly technical-change is often swift and the reasons unknown in advance. Keep some cash in reserve, hedge your bets knowing the one constant in life is change. Lastly, smile, for the goldbugs will have the last laugh in the next few months. Think positive, gold is still cheap-buy some. IMHO Tom

Voyeur Professor
(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:24 - ID#231101)
JTF: Not disaster, but purgatory at least


Possibly I have allowed my mythmaking to obscure my basic point: which is to argue that gold will remain in a rather narrow trading range, certainly no threat to paper, if in fact nothing occurs to alter the prevailing market theology. I hope I am not being obtuse here, but we are not witnessing the triumph of "fundamentals" or an economy with few problems. I believe many here have posted about the problems this market faces. You are one of those whose views have proven particularly sound as a critique of this markets potential tragic flaw. M2 and M3 have launched into the proverbial stratosphere and paper seems to roll off the presses faster than rumors about Clintons sex life, we have talked about supply/demand, failing gold mines, short traders caught in the throes of disaster, gold derivatives that assuredly will swamp those lenders and borrowers alike! All these catastrophe scenarios, none the less, have a constant: they assume a near-term disruption will ravage the faith that the market is invincible. The oil threat and the potential Russian collapse was discounted, as have so many other possibilities for disaster. And this very faith sustains this market in a way that no other era has experienced. One possibility that few have discussed resides in the global market which, when it came on line in the past 10 to 15 years, particularly suited the U.S. economy. We know foreign investors have an enormous stake in U.S. securities, 65% of all treasuries are held by foreignersat least thats the last figure I saw bantered around. Part of the liquidity driving this market to Orion can be attributed to the almost universal recognition that the U.S. represents the best game in town. So, while we have witnessed the deconstruction of Asian economies and, until recently, European stagnancy and growth problems, the global investor has fed at the trough of our horn of plenty. Investors will change their faith only when their god fails them and they perceive gold to represent a better wager.

I dont mean to imply by all this that I foresee disaster for gold, only that gold will struggle so long as the monopoly men luxuriate in an age that has raised equity investing to the status of a propitiation to the gods.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:24 - ID#288295)
Gold Envelope Chart

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:27 - ID#288295)
Crude Oil Envelope Chart

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:28 - ID#269245)
It has all been said! To the sand, I go! - c

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:29 - ID#288295)
U.S. Dollar Index Envelope Chart

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:29 - ID#280245)
In the new TRIPOLAR currency world [see previous post] whose on de board....
Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four on International Monetary Affairs
Communiqu--April 27, 1997

Ministers of the Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four on International Monetary Affairs held their fifty-sixth meeting in Washington, D.C., on April 27, 1997. Mr. Antonio Casas Gonzlez, President of the Central Bank of Venezuela, was in the chair, with Mr. Abdelkrim Harchaoui of Algeria as First Vice-Chairman, and Mr. G.L. Peiris of Sri Lanka as Second
The meeting was attended by {excerpts]Mr. Y. Seyyid Abdulai,
Director-General, OPEC Fund for International Development;
Mr. Stefan Balabanoff, OPEC;
Mr. Enam A. Chaudhury, Islamic Development Bank;
Mr. Liu Jibin, People's Republic of China;
Mr. Mohamed Seqat, Morocco;
Mr. Hamad Al-Sayari, Saudi Arabia
Mr. Trevor Manuel, South Africa.
url as previously noted

USD ( ? ) ; Euro ( for sure ) and......

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:31 - ID#26669)
Thoughts on Titanic construction, need comment by pros
RJ, Mike Sheller, Mr. Disney other pros:

Consider this. The Titanic had watertight compartments which extended from its keel up about 3/4 of the way up its structure. But they had no watertight caps, so once the water could flow over them it could go from one to another without impediment. The initial ~12 square foot hole resulted in the forward lower decks flooding before the watertight compartments could be closed. Closure was delayed by human error. So the boat settled forward so that even when hatches were closed the water was able to go over the top into the forward areas. Then it was just a matter of time until they all filled.

Now for the question. Knowing what you know about economics what are the conditions which will flood our present free market system and force chaos past the stops and bulkheads presently installed?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:32 - ID#238295)
I listened to Venneroso today. Will post his speech when able. He thinks all of the factors responsible for the 1997 gold bear -- CB selling, producer hedging, hedge fund shorting, and Asian liquidation -- will greatly ease in 1998. Expects POG to rebound to $350-%375 by year-end.

Longer-term, he projects a breakout well above $400.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:35 - ID#288295)

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:37 - ID#280245)
Voyeur Professor, a most agreeable read!
And a view with which I find myself in full accord. Thanks!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:39 - ID#317193)
Gold Stocks
Gold stocks since 01/09/98 are actually up rather nicely. Since mid January my gold stocks and mutual fund are up over 8%- not the 17.5% of the Dow but rather nice nontheless. The DOW has a lot further to fall than gold. In other words the downside risk is limited. Be positive. One bull will fall and another bull will rise. This is, of course, not for day traders but longer term players. Have some faith. Tom

Voyeur Professor
(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:42 - ID#231101)
RLubman, forsooth a Tiresias

No apologies necessary, ". . .if you peg the price to whom do you sell." Thank you for a most enlightening critique.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:44 - ID#339265)
Time to sneak in one more thesis...then back to work.

Although many of the posters on this forum are technicians, I happen to subscribe to fundamental analysis, especially in explaining significant shifts in market direction. I do not feel stupid in doing so particularly when one considers the most successful stock investor of our time ( W. Buffett ) is a disciple of fundamental analysis over and above technical evaluation.

What is most fascinating about Yeltsin's recent actions ( firing his entire cabinet ) is the spontaneous, ostensibly irrational, unpredictable
left field nature of the action. Naturally, many American financial analysts have mocked the action with comments such as, "The old guy must have had a pretty bad hangover that day."

Equally surprising, we witnessed the sudden, totally unexpected collusion between several major non-OPEC oil producers and Saudi Arabia. This...after a long period of time in which these parties would simply not sit down at the table together and agree upon anything.

Naturally, it is not surprising to see Wall Street downplay the Yeltsin maneuvre...or the agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC producers. After all, for the Dow Bull to keep running, any and all left field events must be transformed into benign, perfectly understandable, non-threatening phenomenae...

Yet, these types of radical left field events seem to be multiplying as the year progresses...add in Clinton Zippergate, American warships massed in the Middle East, etc., etc., and it is a marked departure from the relatively halcyon years that have marked this decade.

In effect, what I call "Titanic psychology" is spreading rampant throughout the land. Icebergs keep appearing out of nowhere...and with each collision, the so-called captains of industry and finance step forward and announce, "Don't worry,'s really no big deal...the ship is OK...the sound of rushing water you are hearing is merely a figment of your imagination."

The linearity of America's great economic boom is confronting an increasingly non-linear world. If he were alive today, Sartre would describe America in 1998 as a truly existential in which every moment is unique and discrete...which means that just because today was one way ( prosperity ) does not necessarily guarantee that tomorrow will be the same.

This year is truly shaping up as "The Year of the Left Field Event." It seems that as more "leaks" burst, the great ship Americana will topple into turmoil ( but let us hope, not ruin ) as the bullish economic experts lose their credibility...much the same way the captain and designer of the Titanic eventually were compelled to disclose the bitter truth to all the ship passengers.


(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:46 - ID#280245)
and this might be of help....
International Monetary Fund
IMF Primary Commodity Prices
Prepared by the Commodities and Special Issues Division
The Primary Commodity Price tables are presented annually, quarterly, monthly, and weekly. The list is updated monthly.
Last updated March 10, 1998
Indices of Primary Commodity Prices, 1982-97 ( in terms of U.S. dollars )
Indices of Primary Commodity Prices, 1982-97 ( in terms of SDRs )
Indices of Market Prices for Non-Fuel Commodities and Petroleum, 1994-1997 ( in terms of U.S. dollars )
Actual Market Prices for Non-Fuel Commodities and Petroleum, 1994-1997
Average Weekly Prices for Non-Fuel Commodities and Petroleum

The Commodities and Special Issues Division of the Research Department provides information on primary commodity market
developments. Questions about these tables may be directed to

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:48 - ID#222231)
I want everyone to know that I do think for myself contrary to others opinions. I have no axe to grind other than my opinions and do not claim superiority over anyone else. I have found that some here believe they are the end all, and that is fine if it is done in a civil manner. It seems that a strategy of just a few to belittle and snipe at those that dare to think differently is the vogue thing to do.

The little time I have lurked and posted here has imparted to me that many ( most ) are floundering as to what,when,why gold has been behaving in a most unusual manner; not just days but years. Many have been predicting that tomorrow is the day, or next week, or next year, or next decade. It will happen someday. There will be many variable causes, BUT, WHAT IS THE ROOT CAUSE? I will grant that some have short term knowledge that is useful, but many of us are not short term traders. Many have also been burned because of wrong timing, interpreting fundamentals incorrectly and bad technocal analysis, myself included. I only gamble with money I can afford to lose. I fear that several can not.

Whenever someone makes comments or analyizes ANOTHERS comments, it seems that many posts by just a few go out of thier way to make snide remarks about those posts. If this were criticism, then there would be no compliant. I would not have the guts to denigrate anyone on this forum by calling someone a fraud. A post made a short time ago reminding me I was a disciple of ANOTHER was in my eyes demeaning and AROGANT, while professing tolerance. Are those remarks truly criticism, or are they meant to discourage anyone from commenting regarding ANOTHER? Methinks the latter. I did'nt fall out of a blue spruce yesterday even if some believe this to be the case.

What am I getting at and why have I been commenting on ANOTHER? No one ( NO ONE ) outside of ANOTHER, has made any logical, rational arguments explaining the long term decline of gold. ANOTHER seems to have drawn the ire of those that can not stand the attention that many have shown to him. Is this attention justified? Only time will tell.

lets look at the facts:

1 ) Most will agree that our money is being abused and debased by compounding debt.
2 ) Most will agree that gold should be valued higher just on fundamentals.
3 ) Most will agree that gold would be higher if we were dealing with a true free market for same.
4 ) Most will agree that the something unusual is happening in a market, the LBMA, that trades the yearly production of gold many times over in the same period.
5 ) Most will agree that the news regarding investments is biased and slanted.
6 ) Most will agree that someone or something manipulates the markets to forestall the inevitible.
7 ) Most will agree that unusually heavy shorting is being done by big money as if they know something we don't.
8 ) Most will agree that our representatives in government are untrustworthy and that nothing ( NOTHING ) is beyond thier scope.

If anyone here has any doubts that the price of gold is not being manipulated by someone, something, somewho ( new word ) , I have a bridge in Brooklyn I would like to sell to you.

I'm willing to call a truce if others are! All I ask is to treat me or anyone else with the respect you would want for yourself. AMEN!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:52 - ID#401460)

Watch Lumber


Mr. Mick
(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:55 - ID#345321)
All: I find it incredible that the DOW can rise when corporate profits.......
are all coming in lower than expectations. This is a true mania! and has nothing to do with reality. P/E ratios have to be through the roof!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:58 - ID#26793)
I think you are you are being a little too casual about the risk in gold derivatives. In reality, the Great Depression was a failure in gold derivatives as holders of the paper receipts began to have concerns that there was enough gold to cover redemptions. It only takes a tiny number asking for delivery to upset the scheme. That was true in 1932 as individuals took delivery and again in 1971 as only one country, France, demanded delivery. If the Euro is to be backed 30% by gold that means that 14 nations are "taking delivery". I think we are on very, very thin ice here.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:59 - ID#317193)
It is perhaps better to ignore statement perceived to be directed at you than to "fan" the flames and respond in kind. Keep faith with your beliefs and be comfortable in the knowledge that you trust the soundness of your position. Who is to say what the future holds? NOONE or is that NO ONE. Enjoy this forum. Tom

(Tue Mar 24 1998 18:59 - ID#252150)
RJ--You are right on about our cynicism preventing us from enjoying so many things...movies, the greatest bull mkt in history, etc, etc.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:02 - ID#288295)
I, for one, would like to say that while not yet a complete convert to the whole scenario of causes and probable effects that ANOTHER presents, I do appreciate your rational analysis of his ( THOUGHTS ) ..... For what it's worth, I have taken steps recently to prudently shift away from acquisition of mining stocks and silver coins, into purchase of gold coins, just in case all this comes to pass. I didn't fall out of a Spruce Tree either ( or as they say down South, out of a watermelon truck ) . Thanks again for your efforts.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:03 - ID#401460)

Amen Brother,

It is interesting that all of this Oil unity and Gold move up occured 11 days after Another's post, predicting within 5 to 10 days a major move/change would occur.

In my book that is pretty darn good, and a heck of a lot better than I have done or anyone else here.

I would have made a few more bucks if I had acted on his lead. Oh Well!, we all do the best we can. The joke is or will be, that I am still a doubting Thomas and will be sitting on my duff when Gold hits the $320 mark.


(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:11 - ID#401460)
Silverbaron & Pete

You may have made the right move, I already have some Gold coins and a bunch of mining stocks - some great ones too RYO and PGU are a couple. As a matter of fact those two alone reinforce what Another has said.

However, I tend to believe that when Another is talking about paper he is more focused on derivatives and loans than shares - at least I hope that is the case.

If Another reads this post I would like to have his oppinion on mining shres.

He has definitely suggested that when Gold begins to move it may blow right on by availability and even that in the ground.


(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:13 - ID#34857)

Pete; Stick to your convictions, period. Right or wrong, they're yours and you don't have to defend them. As for me, I'm one of those few that are still trying to soak in ANOTHER'S message while learning about PM's at the same time ... not an easy burden for me. But I gotta tell ya, the peanut gallery here is getting so loud I wouldn't hear the man's THOUGHTS! even if I DID understand them. And THAT'S not right!!!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:13 - ID#60253)
Allen ( usa ) ?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:14 - ID#26793)
No stock market crash has ever been followed by a soft landing for the economy.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:17 - ID#401460)
golden eagles

Has anyone been shopping lately for coins?
If so, How is the availability?

I think I will do some window shopping tomorrow night. May be to late? There has been a lot of talk about gold and inflation the last couple of days.

Tonight and tomorrow will be interesting - come to think about it, the next year will be interesting.


(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:18 - ID#288295)
I, too, am curious about the mining shares, and what could happen to them if the physical market disappears for a time. Not to say that I'm selling them, mind you. I'll gladly give you my Pacific Amber ( a Bre-X neighbor ) in trade for your Pegasus...... ( ;^ ) )

(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:21 - ID#253153)
Gold Stocks vs Gold Coins
If I'm correct ( will see ) and deflation is accelerating, a portfolio should be structured with senior gold stocks for appreciation and income and a smalll percentage of gold coins. In deflation, you may lose your job and will have to rely on bonds and mining shares for income.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:24 - ID#252150)
Tolerant1@Keeping The Faith
I'm not discouraged & would'nt mind a move in POG back to 280. I sold my ABX after the previous run up & was just starting to scale back in before this latest move.
Looks like my advice on Sun. to sell the oil news would have worked well.

silver plate
(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:25 - ID#288433)
I sure like your even handed and logical apporoach to PM's and the various postings here. You are a great example for others to follow and would be a delight to know personally, keep talking to us as often as you can.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:26 - ID#288295)
I'm sure robnoel or other coin dealers on the forum could give you a complete picture, but I shopped around a little last week and was told the supply of US $20 double eagles and British Sovereigns was getting pretty tight, but they are still obtainable. I ended up buying a bunch of the French 20 Franc 'Rooster' coins for $64 each in BU condition, which contain $56 each worth of gold. Very beautiful coins, 90-100 years old.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:28 - ID#401460)

If any one has news on PGU, I would appreciate the information. It is not being traded in the US. I have to call Schwab International and listen to some nice Canadian read the news to me - a real hassle for them.

And there is always static on the line - probably some Lake Erie Carp chewing on the line.


(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:30 - ID#26793)
Japan; Hurtling toward paralysis

(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:33 - ID#280245)
F*--The linearity of America's great economic booms...
This exemplary paragraph must win an award for the widest range of thought contained in the tightest word-corral. [Sigh...Envy...Admiration...Regret--i didnt write it {:- )

(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:35 - ID#252150)
JP@I'm starting to have serious doubts about deflation.
This is from Friedberg's Commodity & Currency Comments:

Japan has joined the happy group of the money printers. The monetary asymmetry that lies at the heart of a modern Central bank is evident for all to see. It is a lot easier to ease than to tighten. Ergo, inflation will always be a greater threat than deflation.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:37 - ID#227290)
Market Comments
To all:

Gold did not cooperate with me today very well. We got our follow-through early in the day, but then the close was quite weak. The XAU stocks were even worse.
I'm looking for gold to pull back to the $295-$296 area before heading to its target of $316-$323.
Gold moved above its Feb. high today but the XAU did not. Usually, the XAU tells the truest tale of what's going on.
Just think how the psychology of the gold market has changed this time around. We are five days after the announcement of a major central bank gold sale, larger than the Australia and Argentina sales put together, and instead of being down $7, gold is actually up $7.
Still, I'm looking for short-term weakness, which hopefully will be out of the way by Friday. We'll see.
The gold stocks should work lower as well. Bema Gold was a leader last week, moving up two days ahead of gold and the XAU. Well, unfortunately, Bema turned down today on Toronto and after reaching a high of C$3.33, it closed down C$.03 for the day at C$3.10. Not good.
Couer d'Alene made a new high for the year this morning and was thrown back for a negative daily close. I don't think this is any kind of major top, but I see it as a minor top which will get blown away next week or next month.
I still think we're heading to $316-$323.

Happy trading,

The Preacher

(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:39 - ID#34857)
ANOTHER; Allen ( USA ) is expecting you at 1900 hours CST ... that's about 20-minutes from now.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:41 - ID#255190)

Apologies. 19:00 CST is central standard time. I am on the east coast. Was waiting for 8PM here. Fire away.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:43 - ID#253153)
Deflation , James
In my opinion once a trend is established it can't be reversed by any central banker or politician. The trend will run to completion and will exhaust itself. No amount of printing in Japan or anywhere else will stop deflation. That is the way I see it .Gold during deflation is a very strong hedge against political chaos, currency reneg, defaults,rising unemployment,etc. Gold is very bullish now and will be substantially higher by year end. Oil will collapse in price despite whatever Opec does.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:45 - ID#227290)
Silverbaron & Pacific Amber

I believe Pacific Amber has a lot of money in its treasury. The Dec. '97 Fagan Report said it 88 cents in the treasury for every dollar of market capitalization.
I don't know that it's a good one to sell, given this situation.
What needs to happen, IMO, is for the shareholders to put pressure on management to find a project in either Nevada or Canada to work on. There are loads of companies with worthwhile projects and no money. The two that come immediately to mind are Hanover and Gold Canyon.
Pac. Amber management could finance the development for these two deposits and get a big piece of the action; and the projects are in Canada and the U.S., much better at the moment than Indonesia.
You might start a shareholders revolt. Get management moving in the right direction.

The Preacher

(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:49 - ID#401460)

For What It Is Worth, a couple of months ago I was torn between the deflation / inflation arguments. Now I tend to favor the Inflationary scenario.

If they can control the production of Oil and if demand for Oil continues to grow in the third world economies we are going to have inflation.
The odd thing is that low Oil cost spurs on development and growth around the world creating inflationary pressures in everyother commodity - lumber to labor.

These are definetly strange times to perdict.

I would have to guess that it will take at least a year, if we started to wind down now, from a 2.5% unemployment rate. And quite the contrary the unemployment rate just keeps dropping.

People just keep buying cars and houses. Evidently the only thing they are not buying is Nikes, but I amnot sure that is Nike's problem I heard that they may have some production problems in Asia?


(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:56 - ID#401460)

Just about all charts which would indicate inflation, are starting to turn up.


(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:58 - ID#288295)
Preacher @ Pacific Amber
Thanks for the info - I never hear anything from this company, and had assumed they were nearly belly-up. I don't have many shares, and I try never to sell when underwater ( trust me, I'm REALLY underwater with this one - it went down 95% at one point ) ...a character-building experience.... ( ;^ ) )

(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:58 - ID#411259)
..... .!.. .....

For those that disagree with the LAST word -

Perhaps the millions who find some entertainment value in the "film" are sadly misguided, empty shells of souls who know not better. It is a certainty that their lives would improve if only viewed through the bleak lenses worn by its detractors.

For those that think I am wasting bandwidth, the last paragraph was all about precious metals. That I take a while to get around to the point should disturb you little. If you don't like some of my posts, I invite you to disregard all of them, yes?

Charles Keeling
(Tue Mar 24 1998 19:59 - ID#344225)
Thank you. I am vindicated. With all
of the money being printed by the Fed, and
a high rate of employment. We will IMHO
see inflation.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:01 - ID#60253)
Allen ( USA ) ,

I will pickup from my last post ( Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 15:59 ) , but must add this. I did find humor in the post from SDR_er, that the resulting high price of oil was an "unintended consequence"! This was of the early OPEC, yes, it was truly that way. Some thoughts on this later.

Mr. Allen, the Beirut Resolution was real. In that time, the threat was to price oil in all currencies, not just US$! When the US$ went off the gold standard, the problem was not that oil would buy gold. The gold freemarket was very small for oil. In the back rooms, all talk was how to keep oil prices and settled in US$! As the dollar was the reserve for all countries, a move from oil in dollars would have destroyed it and the financial systems of most large economies. With the US$ just off the gold system, it was very susceptible to any loss of usage.

The price rise of oil was much more than many thought would hold ( SDR_er ) . We found that it was the fear of oil not priced in US$s that kept the price rise in tact. As the resulting price of oil in dollars, after its removal as oil reserve currency was the true reflection of pricing in the, then current market. Not the oil supply cutbacks. All knew that high price from cutbacks, alone would have never held!

To hold a dollar backed oil system, the governments agreed to create a liquid free gold market. They did this by selling much gold over years and allowing it to rise to $200 US. Then, as now, free dollar reserves could go into gold. As the US treasury did no longer back US$ with gold, it hurt not the currency. In a very real way, the dollar went onto a

oil standard to replace the old gold standard. As $180/$200 was to be the limit, for gold ( the BIS set at $180 then ) , in 1978 the US did bomb the gold when it went to $250. The market went out of control and rest is history.

For many years, gold was kept high for the price of oil standard, after gulf war this system fell apart. But, I am ahead of self, questions / comments?

my post take much time to transmit, apologize.

The Hermit
(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:03 - ID#372248)
@ RJ
Thank you for your post of Mar 23 1998 12:10 regarding the purchase of platinum. I believe you had also posted something similar earlier. I do appreciate these posts of yours concerning the purchase of physical.


The Hermit

(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:03 - ID#288295)
I caught your comment on lumber - wouldn't you say that both lumber and copper are great economic indicators? I know that copper has bounced recently, and stockpiles have modestly begun to grow smaller.bbl

(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:03 - ID#280245)
Donald--do you ever wonder if Japan bashing isnt about something else altogether?
There is a hint of madness in the Mavens of Corrupt incessant lamentations about Japan cronyism, acceptance of entertainment crimes, on ad nauseum; consider the Lincoln bedroom sales; Italy--in almost anything one would care to view; Latin America; Africa; is it 'joy' that the Priest of Clean needs a shower?

Just yesterday, this forum was enthusiastically rallying around the Italian CB as the Icon of Gold Fiscal Discipline. Italy!

As to Japans financial inactivity --one might easily predicate a number of scenarios wherein snail-like movement was the very essence of prudence. ( I am not suggesting--necessarily--that that is the case; rather, that the normal frenetic American/English reactions may not be a style suited to every country.

Bully Beef
(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:13 - ID#259282)
Wow! R Lubman come back and post any time...
And this is not to disrespect Pete. It is just that the man took the time... and his logic and language is/are great. Well said man! Bravo! Well Bart... So you are Another are you? Just as I thought.

Bully Beef
(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:13 - ID#259282)
Wow! R Lubman come back and post any time...
And this is not to disrespect Pete. It is just that the man took the time... and his logic and language is/are great. Well said man! Bravo! Well Bart... So you are Another are you? Just as I thought.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:15 - ID#252150)
JP@It's very complicated.
Velocity of turnover argues against inflation. However, even if we have only 1.5% inflation in the U.S. today, can it get any lower? What with low POO & most other commodities possibly coming off their lows & low unemployment, I can't see U.S. inflation going any lower. Besides, the CBs will co-operate & fight deflation with every tool in their arsenal. I think that was what was lacking in the last depression--a co-ordinated global attack on deflation. It's totally beyond me. I'll just watch the numbers & hope to make some sense out of them.
I do agree that OPEC probably won't be successfull in maintaining the increase in POO.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:19 - ID#16693)
A. Goose posted COMEX stocks earlier today showing 245,742 ounces elibible and at $297.20US could be purchased in total for $73,034,522.40US. I FAXed his posting to my broker and asked him if he was willing to help me raise the $73M. After no response, I called him late this afternoon and he told me he did not believe the #'s. He then checked and verified, and said he was stunned - will call COMEX statistics office in AM to verify. He's traded metals for 20+ years.
Donald_A posted tonight about derivatives in ref to 29 crash. Another posted in Feb ( ? ) that all holders of paper would be very sorry when gold blasts off. If LBMA/CBs/& COMEX have this pathetic amount of inventory, it isn't going to take much to upset this phantom marketplace.
Maybe we watched a battle of giants in the gold market today, it overall a draw until tomorrow. Crazy rules tho - no contestant may deplete COMEX's stocks. Maybe that's why WB chose silver - he's a chicken!
I can understand how the shorts would be wiped out if gold skyrockets considering that only $73M US would clear out COMEX - at least speculators will be - maybe not producers or CBs selling short. But how would the longs be wiped out since they have a contract to purchase at a fixed price. If COMEX cannot deliver, isn't that COMEX's problem or my broker or my broker's clearing house? Big issue now with me considering I have a bunch of June contracts and some 305 calls.

By the way, I work with securities all day, and have no idea why gold stocks will be immune from a market crash. If the "value" of stocks erode with the dollar and ergo the DOW what makes you mining stock buyers think your stock will be tradable - for what? Currency? The little producers won't be able to borrow and the big ones have forward sold as far as they can so no partial redemption of gold for your stock.

My first post - maybe that is why it is so long - forgive please.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:22 - ID#247309)
SO how did I post that message without my name in front of it?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:26 - ID#31868)
US vs Coward Erect

(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:26 - ID#255190)
More apologies. My ISP was down. I'm back now.

So, of course, oil IS concerned about keeping the world economies intact in order to assure a need for its product. Part of that was to back the US$ as the 'oil settlement currency' thus assuring a high demand for its use. Gold also was managed ( BIS ) more or less, and was keep at certain levels to saticfy interested parties.

The Persian Gulf war part has me a bit confused. How is it this ruined an agreement? Was this about gold?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:27 - ID#234218)
(ALL) don't know if this has been posted yet.

Industry News

FOCUS-Gold's jump likely short-lived--traders

By Kenneth Barry
HONG KONG, March 24 ( Reuters ) - Higher gold prices will
probably be short-lived, bullion traders in Asia said on
They said gold might test Monday's figure but was unlikely
to go much higher and probably would drift lower because of
factors such as supply and demand.
Gold jumped more than seven dollars on Monday on higher oil
prices, inflation fears, political uncertainty in Russia and on
comments from an official of Italy's central bank.
Oil rose $1.90 to $16.51 a barrel in New York on Monday
after major producers agreed to cut output in a bid to halt a
slide that had pulled prices to their lowest in nine years.
After ending in New York on Monday at US$298.70/299.20 an
ounce, spot gold drifted lower in Asia on Tuesday.
Traders did not think the strong gains from Monday would
continue when markets opened in Europe and America later on
"I wouldn't think we will have any strong follow through,"
one bullion trader in Singapore said.
Dick Gazmararian, executive vice president of Republic
National Bank in Hong Kong, said there was no correlation
between gold and oil prices.
"Gold does not serve as an inflation hedge," he said.
"Inflation has been down, but gold isn't going down
necessarily. It has gone up $25 to $30. And when inflation has
gone up, gold has gone down."
Supply and demand is the main factor determining the price
of gold, and that relationship is roughly in balance, he said.
"It's difficult to see a scenario where you would have
significantly higher prices for gold," Gazmararian said.
Spot gold was quoted at US$297.50/298.00 an ounce at 0630
A precious metals analyst said recent comments by the
governor of the Bank of Italy were more relevant to the price
of gold than the recent rise in oil prices.
Antonio Fazio said on Saturday the planned European Central
Bank ( ECB ) could hold gold reserves of as high or higher than
the Bank of Italy, which has 30 percent of assets.
The gold market reacted positively on Monday, but the
analyst said it was unclear whether Fazio's remarks meant there
would be no more gold sales by European central banks as they
prepared to become part of the ECB in 1999.
The threat of official gold sales by central banks has
weighed on gold prices in recent months.
"The total reserves of the ECB have not been completely
worked out yet. They certainly look like being a lot less than
the combined reserves of the central banks that will be going
into it," the analyst, who asked not to be named, said.
He said the short-term outlook was for a stable gold price,
ranging between US$290 and $300 an ounce.
Spot silver prices, meanwhile, continued firm as lease
rates rose to 14 percent, traders said.
Silver was quoted at US$6.41/46 an ounce at 0630 GMT.
One trader said the high lending rate was forcing
speculators to square their positions.
"It may be that there are not enough lenders in the market
or somebody may have bought back silver," he said.
2847-8055; Fax ( 852 )
2845-0636 ) )
Rtr 03:04 03-24-98

(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:32 - ID#26793)
Pre 1989, when Japan was King of The Hill, they could do no wrong. Americans read all the books that gave the "secrets" to their success. Now it is we who are smug because our markets are giving us an illusion of power and wealth. We will get our comeuppance. Gold in your pocket and things paid for in full is the reality of true wealth. Everything else is the an illusion no matter what country you live in.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:35 - ID#222231)
HighRise, Silverbaron, TYoung, Silver plate
Thank you all for your kind words.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:35 - ID#255190)
Gold reserves drop in CB's

Looking at the total world wide CB reserves I notice a steady decline in inventory from the late 1960's through about 1983, then a period of stable reserves and recently more drops of about 50 Million ounces over a 4 year period.

Starting at 1100 Mln a shot up to 1200 Mln then steady decline to about 950 Mln by 1983. recently in the past four years a drop of 50 Mln ounces.

These gold reserves were sold to oil interests in exchange for US$ reserves? This is about 6000 metric tonnes. These are the outright sales not including leasing.

Mr. Mick
(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:38 - ID#345321)
Tolerant - it's coincidental you mention this, as one of the newsletters I read
sometimes mentioned the same thing. But it also asserts that Clinton will not go peacefully. He will fight it tooth and nail the whole way.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:38 - ID#284246)
commodity brokers

So far I've been just buying physical gold and silver. I now wish to start doing short-term trades ( options, futures, longs, shorts etc ) .

Can someone recommend a broker, who is ipreferably based in a jurisdiction where I don't have to pay tax on my profits and who might tolerate a client with ( at the moment ) limited means?

Also it would help if trading could be carried out over the internet.

Any suggestions would be appreciated.



(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:42 - ID#222231)
Have the CB's stopped selling physical gold to oil interests? ( or close to stopping sales? ) Does the recent oil cutback have something to do with this?

As ANOTHER would say


(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:43 - ID#288295)
I thought a couple weeks ago when ANOTHER made his bold forecast, that something like clearing the COMEX elligible stocks would be the only CLEARLY VISIBLE sign ( that would be unmistakable to all ) that the gold market fundamentals had changed in a way never before seen. I still feel this way. $73 MM is chump change for the BIS or big oil.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:44 - ID#28961)
@Preacher, reflections on market comments

Yesterday's action has all the earmarkings of wave b and wave d rallies which tend to be sharp and brief. ( ealier comments with regard to triangle formations ) .

It is also a possibility that the triangle has ended and what we saw was wave 1 up with a short wave 2 to follow as per your comments. It should be brief and quickly followed by a wave three thrust to that 313-322 target range.


(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:45 - ID#210235)
Thanks for your posts. My daughter's friends have done their drooling at the theater, and I have considered letting her watch the same. I saw Dr. Zhivago young, first run, and wept with them knowing full well they were "wrong". I remember my mom drilling that point home to me, too. Also Gone with the Wind gets much of its staying power from complex and difficult characters behaving badly, you might say. I loved it as a girl without condoning the behavior. I risk being bored to death, but fear I must capitulate and spend the day at the movies. I had my turn!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:46 - ID#408228)

Please keep in mind that the governments make the rules in what backs, or doesnt back, their currencies. They are not very likely to paint themselves into a corner. If the rules dont suit them, they change them. In the meantime, the backed, or not backed, money, buys beer at the local grocery, pays taxes, and functions as wampum, cowrie shells, or all the other things that passed for money over the millenia.

The dollar may be backed by nothing, but it does pay for tuition at MIT, dinner at La Cote Basque, admission to Disneyland, and other niceties that are desired by both US and non-US persons. All that said, there is a value to gold, which is as insurance for the unanticipated, for maybe 5-10% of a portfolio. That insurance is now being sold very cheaply.

As far as commercial default on gold derivatives is concerned: Who is short the gold derivatives? Wall Street and the bullion houses. What happened the last time that these entities were squeezed? They changed the rules of the game. Remember the margin rule changes on the Hunts?

None of this is likely, provided the market is continuous.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:46 - ID#60253)
Allen ( USA ) ,

Many have thought that oil is in short supply/reserve and someday we run out. In that time the price will rise due to shortage. This is not true for your lifetime. There is a great deal of energy/oil, for a very long time. The shortages will not come true, look even to the past important reports that say oil run out in 1989! As the crude oil will be fueling your economy for many years, one should look to the market for oil not the supply. It will be the change of this century as oil finds a new medium of exchange. Even the SDR_er looks for producers to cut back:

Perhaps you refer to a price that is sufficiently high to compel conservation on the part of the consumer? Thus restricting sales of the producers?  But would this not allow the producers to produce at a moderate level over a longer period of time? What am I not considering?

Oil does not look to cut back, but to supply more! What is now found, is a currency that will allow full supply without loss of wealth.

Mr. Allen, do you see the EURO as a help in this area? Would you use EUROs as a currency in your land, side by side with the US$?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:48 - ID#26793)
Japan says trillions will pour into stocks after Big Bang on April 1st.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:50 - ID#31868)
Mr. Mick - oh he will fight, but now he has enemies everwhere
and he and his team are no match. They will filet him. The Coward Erect can now call too many Senators his enemy in both the Republican and Democratic camps. This latest attempt to circumvent the law through Executive Priviledge is the rope around his neck. And believe me his enemies will pull it tight and pull the switch on the trap door.

His mockery of the different branches of the government, especially in the Justice Department are slowly creeping into the news. And where is the Janet Reno that people respected in Florida, I certainly cannot answer that one either, but, she made her choices, she has to live with them as does the Coward Erect.

His constant comment theme of "I am doing the work of the people." is a mockery of the office and most certainly the vast silent majority that never seems to be polled.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:53 - ID#257253)
Don't you mean 'edible' instead of "eldible"? We could breed a new bacterium that eats gold! That's it! You have just solved our problem. Seriously, $73M is trivial, when compared with the paper markets. But what is the real story, and how many ounces are waiting to hit market given the right price? This is latent supply that must exist, either through the CB's, mining companies, or the huge "virtual" gold inventory created by media, the paper brokers and others.
The low supply is reflective of the low demand, and nothing else. Be realistic; supply will increase as the price goes up, simply because of manipulation. Of course, a few renegades can spoil the whole plan.

bona fortuna aurum!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 20:58 - ID#320219)

You have shown that the dollar is just a mechanism to initiate a transaction, that the transaction is completed when oil has transfered dollars into another store of value not when dollars are deposited in a bank. I belive, you would not have us believe, that gold is/was the only store of value these dollars past into- but was the corner stone that the other investments rested upon. I believe that your contention is that the other investments lose all value unless the fundamental measure of value gold is freely exchangable and that it shortly will not be. Your proposing an upheaval in international currency- is that why the EMU will be backed by so much gold or do we look else where for the future international currency? Your earlier posts had a much more urgent tone has oils plans been pushed to the right or is the increased gold backing of the EMU a workable solution for the interim?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:03 - ID#255190)
We are bouncing around here. For a while talking about oil bidding for gold, using this as a means to stabilize the paper currencies - forming a triad: oil/gold/paper. Where gold's scarcity would be the 'valve' that would realign these interests.

Now you suggest Euro's. I'm sure that the people in New York would use any currency they needed to in order to trade, gold, oil or otherwise. If that happens to hurt the US$ then I'm sure they would figure that out in a hurry and find some way of hedging that exposure as well.

This is confusing to me. Can you please be more clear?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:06 - ID#224151)
I see CNBC is planning a 3 hour "special" when the Dow breaks 9000.
I can hardly wait!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:06 - ID#288295)

Excellent material on the US v. Clinton. The bell is ringing ( but nobody is listening except us ) .

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:09 - ID#255190)
EURO is holding foreign reserves
including gold. It will not be "backed by gold" such as the Swiss Franc ( at 40% ) . This is an importnat difference. They can produce any amount of paper/credits they want to just as the US or any other hard currency nation can do. The 'foreign reserves' are a way of managng short term fluctuations in currency to currency exchange rates.

At least this is what I understand the situation as being. The Euro is just paper.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:09 - ID#26793)
Governments think they make the rules but the truth is that markets do. Government rules didn't help Argentina, Mexico, Bolivia etc in years past nor will it help Indonesia now. The overhang of derivatives is so huge that it has the power to overwhelm the financial system of the entire world in a single afternoon.

You are right that governments will try, and will make our lives miserable in doing so; but in the end they will fail. I don't think that anyone should count on the promises of governments to fix this mess. The Fed is fighting tooth and nail to prevent the FASB from issuing new rules on marking derivatives to market. They would only do that if they knew what a black hole the market is right now. There may be dead banks now who are being propped up by Fed action. Maybe that is why the M's have been so robust in recent weeks. I enjoyed the insights in your post but my suspicions on derivatives, fueled in large part by recent BIS warnings, leads me to think you should be a bit more frightened of them.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:14 - ID#288157)
Donald, thanks.
Paid my last debt off today, as a matter of fact. {:- )

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:15 - ID#288295)

I'm sure the switchover to trading commodities in EURO or anything but US dollars would cause a flood of those dollars to come home, causing an instant inflationary reaction.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:15 - ID#317193)
Ditto-you know I believe derivatives will implode the world economic system. Hope not but still think so. Tom

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:15 - ID#287338)
@Snowball News you posted.
Is this guy backwards or is it just me???

Dick Gazmararian, executive vice president of Republic
National Bank in Hong Kong, said there was no correlation
between gold and oil prices.
"Gold does not serve as an inflation hedge," he said.
"Inflation has been down, but gold isn't going down
necessarily. It has gone up $25 to $30. And when inflation has
gone up, gold has gone down."
Supply and demand is the main factor determining the price
of gold, and that relationship is roughly in balance, he said.
"It's difficult to see a scenario where you would have
significantly higher prices for gold," Gazmararian said.
Spot gold was quoted at US$297.50/298.00 an ounce at 0630

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:15 - ID#210235)
Could you please elaborate on the Great Depression as a failure of the gold derivative market? I haven't come across that in my reading, and so, can't just nod and read on. WHAT? How did that play out? Especially important if the Euro could represent a possible replay ( history never repeats itself, it just rhymes. Was that another one from S. Clemens? ) .

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:18 - ID#78136)
safe investment?
Prudent investment might be better. I am looking
for some advice. I have some good gold stocks. I
now exclusively purchase ML, both gold and silver.
We read the posts here, do our independent research
and come up with a conclusion which is that we are
very bullish on gold in long run. We have more
disagreement on the time frame. I am not a trader
anymore. Is there a limit to the physical gold that
a person should buy as a percentage of his portfolio?
I see $500 gold by the summer as well. There is so
much bad news, it is obvious this is a well
manipulate market. I is not only the Asian Flu
both physical and financial, El Nino and the weird
weather,y2k, anon. When the lid flies off this
powderkeg, gold will zoom. We will be vindicated.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:19 - ID#411112)
Being a White African,Iam just a little pis#@d off,with the leader of the free world

Once again your President,has left the US to trash the US and he did it in my country ,it's not the first time,he trashed you guys, when will America wake up.............lets talk facts,today he said "The United States has not always done the right thing by Africa".He also said Africa suffered during the cold war competition between the US and USSR.Europeans and Americans"received the fruits of the slave trade.And we were wrong in that as well.

Just like the liberals AKA socialists will blame auto weapons,for the sad story in Ark. today,rather than the real problem a failed social experiment....he blames America for Africa's failed ability to achive greatness.....what a jerk.......facts....Africa is four times the geographical size of the US,it has approximately 700 million people.It is a continent with immense mineral wealth.Africa has "40% of the worlds hydroelectric power supply:the bulk of the worlds diamonds and chromium:30% of the uranium in the non-communist world:50% of it's GOLD:90% of it's cobalt:50% of it's phoshates:40% of its platinum;7.5% of it's coal:8% of it's known petroleum reserves:12% of it's natural gas:3% of it's iron
ore and millions upon millions of acres of untilled farm land.THERE IS NOT ANOTHER CONTINENT BLESSED WITH ABUNDANCE AND DIVERSITY.

Yeah sure it's a SLAVERY PROBLEM,I guess you can also blame the problems of Washington DC on slavery......the reason the symbol of the FREE WORLD looks like a third world country...look who is the Mayor ....some may say I am being raciest...I say to you stick it where the sun don't Jack would say .....YOU CAN"T HANDEL THE TRUTH

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:21 - ID#25255)
The Preacher--ECO
Do your know anything about Echo Bay? Will it ever emerge from the basement? I can't find anything horribly negative about this stock but nothing seems to move it up or down. Please, somebody comment.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:22 - ID#210235)
Thanks for the NYTimes editorial. As we sit waiting and watching for justice to prevail, here are some interesting numbers:

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:22 - ID#31868)
That's why they are called the SILENT MAJORITY, they care and they are listening.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:23 - ID#372400)
With respects to all die-hard PM knights, allow me to express doubts,
hopefully reasonable, on Another's thoughts.

I would agree that the idea of oil-exporters demands to provide gold
as payment for oil is not impossible,
provided that Another is right on a major assumption --
that oil-exporters have the control to dictate oil prices.
The game looks rather plausible -- oil-exporters keep prices low to make
stronger the future shock of huge price increases.
But as strong as I agree that "secrets are for the fools", I beilive
that in dealings with West everything looking plausible is the most risky.
( Japan is the best example of that. )

It is possible for Saudi Arabia to push prices lower,
but the next step -- to control price increase is far less certain for
me, who have Western ideas, than for people proclaiming
to have "Another thoughts". Here is why.

Western thought, in my humble opinion, has only one axiom:
Only uncertainty is certain. ( Pliny )
Practically, it means that when oil goes significantly up or down --
Western tradition of thought makes no assumption
that it will go the other way soon.

It learns to live with it.

When oil went up in 1970 what was outcome:
West learned how to limit consumption,
how to substitute oil with Uranium,
and how to find more oil on the ocean floor.

When oil went down, it learned how make discovery of new oil so cheap,
that it still makes a lot of financial sense dispite low oil prices
( look at the performance of oil-drillers for the last two years ) .

If some "very simple minded" people in oil-exporting countries decide
to blackmail West with oil -- what would be the outcome?
They will succeed in the beginning -- but later they will get
into the situation of Saddam --
to beg for permission to make oil-for-food deals.

For people in-power in oil-exporting countries gold might be
the ultimate wealth, but for the rest of 99.99% of their country's
population the food is of more necessity -- you can't have gold coins
for dinner, can you? I doubt that they are self-sufficient when it comes to
food. So, it will be gold-for-food, not oil-for-gold deal.

I have no doubts, that it is possible to create shortage and panic on
the world oil market by such "simple minded actions",
but the outcome is as certain as the one of "Desert Storm".

And lastly, try to imagine, what will happen if all the gold disappears,
or get concentrated in one hands. Not much.
Since Adam Smith, it is pretty clear that a country can prosper with
no gold at all. The pig farmers are much more important
for the prosperity than coffers of gold -- as comparative history of
the West and Middle Asia during last 300-400 years
demonstrate -- as far as my education goes.
Ask yourself, if gold ounce would shot up in price to the price of your car,
or house, or college education of your kids, would you exchange any of
the above for the one Golden Eagle? I will not.
In such situation -- hell with the gold. Only "simple minded people"
who never knew what famine, war or epidemic are on there
own experience can fantacise about ABSOLUTE value of gold.

But for a westerner --
nothing is certain but uncertainty --
value of gold included.

( Here, I anticipate bitter feelings of PM-longs. Well, uncertainty is not
synonym of gold-going-down. )

So, if you can, hedge your future by owning some gold --
but relying on it too heavily is pretty much like spending all your money
on various insurances -- insane.

What is the best strategy to live through such years of disaster?
Many believe that gold is the best. But let me remind you, my patient reader,
that brains and skills of a man are much better. During the latest catastrophe
in the history of West - World War II - it was not gold that saved "victims-to-be
of nazists" - but the courage to face uncertainty of fighting for freedom and
skill to do the fight.

I am not certain that my doubts are reasonable -- so I will be glad
to hear any reasonable refutation of them.


(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:23 - ID#28961)
John Ing, comments from Financial post today on gold

John Ing, technical analyst says next major move will be linked to the US dollar. Asian demand has not tailed off, suspects buying holding up in face of further devaluations. He is very encouraged by the fact that gold is holding well in the face of the Belgium announcement last week


(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:24 - ID#433422)


(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:25 - ID#255190)
I will be going soon. Please continue the conversation with those here if you will. You had questions for me???

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:26 - ID#288295)

You should not under any circumstances exceed 100%.... ( :^ ) )

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:29 - ID#426220)

Donald__A ( Japan says trillions will pour into stocks after Big Bang on April 1st. )

This is PRECISELY what the Bank of Japan hopes for, but alas and ironically since it comes on APRIL-FOOL'S DAY, the monies will flow
to the US of A!!!!! Sometime between tonight and tomorrow the golden-eagle ( sans the "en" ) will post an article which will blow the roof off of Japan's futile attempt to recesitate its doomed economy!!!!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:31 - ID#298259)
You may be aware of Pacific Amber's website, but if not try... ...the most recent press release says the company has $4.3 mil available for future projects. Also shows progress in Indonesia. It ain't over till it's over, even though it isn't looking good. Those 95% losses are difficult to stomach as I can attest to... still Frustrated but patient.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:33 - ID#31868)
Prometheus - hmmmmmmmmmmmmm
I still wonder about these numbers from the polls. I always ask, and now ask you, have you ever met anyone that has been polled? I never have in the entire time I have been on the planet.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:35 - ID#288295)

Thanks for the link - I'll see what they're up to.....When Bre-X imploded ( as you know if you also own Pacific Amber ) , there was no time to react on this one.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:36 - ID#7568)

I find it hard to believe that the persons writing the article on money supply growth were actually economists. The idea that somehow money supply growth due to high money 'demand' is good while growth due to high money 'supply' is bad, borders on the absurd.

Since there appears to be a lot of confusion as to how money is created in our system let me take a stab at clearing it up.

In a fractional reserve banking system such as ours, money comes into being one of two ways. It is either 'printed' ( or electronically created ) by the Federal Reserve, or it is electronically created by a bank. Since there is little confusion about what it means to run a printing press I will focus on the creation of money through the banking system.

Let's posit a small society just starting out on a fractional reserve banking system. On day 1, the Fed prints up $100 and distributes it to the population. ( This is not quite how things started here in the good ole USA but the genesis is of no consequence to the current state and it's continuance ) Further assume that all of the money ends up in a bank called First Fiat. On day 2, Bob the Businessman walks into First Fiat and asks to meet Larry the Loan officer. Bob has a great idea and all he needs is 90$ to get his website off the ground. After a few minutes of due dilligence Larry decides that Bob is an OK guy and that the 100 year loan should be approved. Larry hands Bob 9 crisp 10$ Fed notes and away Bob goes. That very same day Bob meets Wanda the Web designer who accepts Bob's payment of 90$ for her site design. Wanda walks over to Second Fiat bank and deposits the 90$ just as business closes for the day.

On the evening of day 2, Fred from the Fed walks around fiat land and inspects the banking system. He finds that First Fiat has $10 dollars in reserves ( $100 - $90 ) and $100 in deposits. Since the Fed's rule is that a bank must have $10 in reserve for every $100 in deposits, there is no problem over at First Fiat. Over at Second Fiat, Fred is happy to find that the 90$ deposit is covered 100% by 90$ in reserves. Fred duly notes that the Money Supply is now $190. This is the sum of all the deposits in the system.

On day three Bob wakes up and decides he needs some more money for his nascent business. He walks into Second Fiat, meets with Larry's brother Leo, and walks out with $81 dollars. That very same day he heads for Carl the Computer salesman, and buys the latest and greatest gizmo for $81 dollars. Carl runs over to Third Fiat and deposits the money. At the end of the day Fred from the Fed again makes the rounds. The situation is unchanged at First Fiat, at Second Fiat there are only $9 in reserves, but that's OK because there are only $90 in deposits. Over at Third Fiat there are $81 of deposits and an equivalent amount of reserves. He duly notes that the money supply is now $271.

This process can go on up until the money supply is maxed out at cash * the allowable deposit to reserve ratio. In this example, the multiplier is 10 so the money supply will max out at $1000. In the end there will be $1000 of deposits in the system with $100 of reserves backing these deposits.

In order for the money supply to grow beyond $1000, one of two things must happen ( assuming that the reserve requirement is kept constant ) . The Fed must inject more reserves into the system either by buying something and paying for it in reserve notes, or loaning reserve notes to the banks. In our system the thing that the Fed buys is government debt. Buy purchasing this debt ( monetizing it ) more reserve money is added into the system. Each of these new reserve dollars can then multiply up into the money supply by the same factor of 10 as before. The second way the Fed can accomodate growth in the money supply is to lend reserves to the banks. The banks can then use these loaned reserves in order to meet the reserve requirements that Fred so strictly enforces. In our example above, if First Fiat loaned out its remaining $10 it would have zero reserves. Fred would be very unhappy to come into First Fiat and find out that the reserve requirements were not met. Fortunately for the folks at First Fiat, they could go the discount window and borrow reserves from the Fed at the discount rate to cover their shortfall.

If the banking system is getting by on borrowed reserves, then the rate at which the Fed loans reserve money to the banking system will have an influence on the rate at which the banks will subsequently loan money to the public. Since they are in business to make money they will not loan money at a rate less than it cost them to borrow it. As the Fed raises the rate at which reserves can be borrowed it indirectly effects the rates that banks will charge their customers for loans. In theory, higher rates will dampen loan demand and growth in the money supply will slow. If old loans are repaid faster than new loans are created, money supply will actually shrink, assuming that the Fed does no printing on its own. The Fed can also lower reserve in the banking system by selling something ( again bonds ) and being paid in reserve notes. This can get the system to a level of tightness where it again must either borrow reserves or call in loans.

From the above, it is clear that the debt monetization which the Fed conducts is but a small portion of the growth in the money supply. It is the subsequent lending, redepositing and lending of this newly created money which really is responsible for the bulk of the growth in money supply. All this money ( 90% in a system with a 10% reserve requirement ) is money which is fueled by the demand for loans. Because the Fed can influence the cost of these loans its, it is always in a position to dampen their creation.

If the growth of the money supply exceeds the growth in actual asset creation, be that asset a building, a computer program or an airplane, then over time, sure as the sun comes up in the morning, the amount of money needed to purchase those assets is going to increase. This is happening as we speak. The name for this phenomenon is inflation.

Much has been made here at Kitco of the idea that the gold market will only go up when the equity market goes down. There is a general misconception that somehow money will 'come out' of stocks and flow 'into ' gold. There is no money in stocks and there is no money in gold. All of the money is in the banking system. Stock prices and gold prices are just that, prices. Prices are indications of the amount of money transfered from one party to another during the most recent transaction involving the underlying asset.

Typically what happens in a cycle such as this is that the price of some assets in the system are bid up to a point where the Fed believes something is out of whack. This causes the Fed to stem the tide of money creation through its actions on the amount of reserves in the banking system. By slowing the growth of the money supply in relation to the growth in the quantity of assets, the rate of rise in the price of assets will slow. The tricky part is to slow the rate of growth without stopping it. If certain asset classes have been bid to wild extremes, like Japanese real estate in the late 80's, then stopping the rise in prices may produce a downward countertrend which snowballs into a deflationary collapse.

Since it is apparent that there is no level of excess in the stock market that the Fed will not tolerate, there is no reason to believe that the Fed will try and intervene against the growth of credit ( money ) except in other circumstances. They are boxed into a political corner and must have a visible smoking inflation gun, or else they will be shot at high noon for taking away the punch bowl when there is no 'reason'. As a result, this party will go on until their is measurable inflation. With the way that the government measures inflation, this could be a long time indeed. During this period of continued financial largesse it is likely that assets which have not heretofore bin bid to the moon will get their share of attention. It is here that gold may find its footing. Just as stock markets rises generally do not end until every trashy equity is selling at an astounding multiple, it is likely that this general asset inflation will not end until even the lagards such as gold have been well bid. It is likely that the increase in price of these lagging assets will be the trigger which causes the Fed to finally act.

The consequences of 'pricking the balloon' will be very hard to predict in this environment but cash will no longer be a four letter word and equities may well become one. The time for gold will be between now and then. If its time has not occured when the music stops, its time will not occur, at least in nominal terms, unless some radical change in the banking system occurs. That will not be something worth betting upon.

The Hermit
(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:36 - ID#369247)
tolerant1 - your 21:22

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:38 - ID#26793)
I meant that in 1929 we used both gold coin and gold notes interchangeably. Several years after the crash, by 1931 and 1932, business conditions worsened and the U.S. public and foreigners lost confidence in those gold notes ( derivatives ) and began to draw gold from the banks. Quoting from "The World in Depression" ( Kindleberger )
"On September 21, 1931, Governor Moret of the Bank of France asked the Federal Reserve Bank of New York whether it minded the conversion of dollars into gold. Harrison assured him it did not. On September 22 the Bank of France converted $50 million to gold, and the National Bank of Belgium $106.6 million....Gold losses in the statement of Federal Reserve System were unavoidable, and when they were reported they disturbed the foreign exchange market. On October 1 the Bank of France converted another $25 million, on October 8 another $25 million and on October 13 $20 million."

Things went downhill from there. My point is that US dollar gold certificates were derivatives in the same sense that a COMEX warehouse receipt is today.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:38 - ID#287338)
I have don't know a single sole who likes BC!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:38 - ID#298259)
Silverbaron...let's try that again Pacific Amber Resources Website. Says the co. still has $4.3 mil cash available for future projects. Also, some progress is being made in Indonesia. It ain't over till it's over even though it don't look good. I can certainly sympathize with that 95% loss in value, it caught me too...still Frustrated but patient.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:39 - ID#257136)
Tolerant1: I have just come on line and was catching up for the past couple days when I read yours
of 13:54.
If I were someone other than I am, I'd have to go get drunk or argue with the next person I meet the demerits of the scenario you developed.

Being who and where I AM AND HAVING BEEN WHER i'VE BEEN ( fangers ) I can only state this: I must concur as to the absolute horror which you conjure up when you speak of the executive orders, etc.
God help the USof A and its people, if the coward erect and his masters decide to do something such as your scenario postulates.
The more reason for all who know of the possibilities to MAKE READY and gird up the loins.
We still have somewhere around 647 actual days ( Not work days or trading days ) within which we can accomplish a lot, if we should decide to do so!!
BTWprobably like eveeryone else on this forum, I have enjoyed the past two days as I see what my stocks and futures are doing. Perhaps I will after all have been on the right side of a few trades this past couple years. The next two weeks should tell one way or the other.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:44 - ID#288399)
Merrill Lynch's slick ad/repeal of Glass-Steagal??
Has anyone seen Merill Lynch's slick advertisement asking you -- the 90's financial consumer -- to call your congressman and demand the repeal of "financial laws" from the 1930's? Are they talking about repealing Glass-Steagal? Why do they now want to repeal a law that has been around for 60-odd years? How come when the earlier generation ( that wrote a law ) dies off, the next generation steps right in to repeat the same mistakes?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:47 - ID#342282)
Silverthorn your 20:19
Great. Sounds like something I would try, but a LARGE part of the 73 mil is missing here. Please keep it up and post ( s ) . Charlie

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:48 - ID#257253)
April Fool's may be may's mavens
Indeed, if the scenario is realized about Japan on April 1, as has been suggested, and money flows to the US stock market, this will "suck"' the life out of all the Asian economies into the US, to "get all the wagons in a circle". Only Europe remains, and thereby setting up the "showdown" between the EURO and US$. This will shape up in the months to come, with competition for money into the inflated paper markets. And ultimately, this competition will be mediated by gold, as the common mode between the two. What else is there? LEAPS? Give me a break. This will be strictly hardball. Other resources ( re: oil, etc ) will take a back seat to this scenario, and the Asians and other emerging economies will be the betters on the race. Who do you think will win?

Probably the Euro, because they will establish gold linkage.

place your bets.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:52 - ID#26793)
Japan MOF says can not rule out more bank failures.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:53 - ID#60253)
Allen ( USA ) ,
Your thoughts, they are true American. I ask a honest question; Do you feel the future is at risk if you must use another currency for trade? If yes, why? I ask this for others, in lands apart from yours. They use your US$ and feel that it works, and the future is not at risk.

Also: Your question?
The Persian Gulf war part has me a bit confused?

Yes, it did bring a different outcome from what was expected. I will write of this next time.

I will make commits to other questions, later.

Thank you

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:53 - ID#210235)
ONLY 33% of those polled believe BC is honest and trustworthy, although they want him to continue managing things. ( Everybody knows what happened to the economy after the Nixon debacle ) . But what will BC draw upon in a crisis, if he has so little credibility? We could come up with a hundred scenarios which could lead to a major crisis of confidence in his administration. He left American troops in Bosnia indefinately! Doesn't anyone else worry about them? I know a couple whose son was there until last summer. She said the news doesn't filter out at all, and if we had even an inkling how often our soldiers are put at unnecessary risk there, we would be walking up Pennsylvania Avenue arm-in-arm. Enough worry already, BC's got no paddle if he hits the rapids, and there are always more rapids just around the bend.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:56 - ID#248234)
not in japan
As a Tokyo based lurker, the list might be interested to know that local rail and subway platforms now have security guards posted. Their job: suicide discouragement. There have been daily schedule delays from jumpers. on the yen- one analyst expects temporary strengthening to 124, and then the bottom to drop quickly to 150. US equities will surge, and then gold will have its day.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:56 - ID#26793)
Foreigners are net sellers of Japanese stocks

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:58 - ID#210235)
Never saw it that way before. Hope you're doing research for a book, with all these insights. They should be preserved for posterity, not lost to the ether.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 21:59 - ID#234218)
Whew!! That makes at least two of us. I'm sometimes ( nearly always ) a little slow to catch on, but to me it sounded like some goldbear double talk that didn't quite add up. I posted it as info to see if anyone else might be able to clarify.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:01 - ID#287358)

time has told the tale....the pretenders

big trader....

we've witnessed first-hand the fiascos, perpetrated by man, upon man.
the reasons different, the results the same. attention creates animation.
another has been animated without any validation....not a very prudent avenue for supposedly discerning individuals.

now look where the animation has led....another is asking the questions...this is a conversational control technique! wake-up peopleo....gee whiz, idle minds and another taskmaster....

crack the whip have 'your' did jim jones in guyana, and the heavens gate comet riders.

as before----with big trader and is now with another joke.

bite me pete.

LOOK OUT! it's a herd of peopleo....headed for the cliffs of dover....
they heard a bridge of oiled gold leads safely to the sea-shore far below...where the huskies go....

listen to your eyes...
they are screaming.


(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:03 - ID#210235)
Please continue to inform us of your observations. Looking at Japan only from published news, it is very difficult to understand what is really going on there. Thank you!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:04 - ID#19883)

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:06 - ID#31868)
Prometheus - 21:53
Nicely put -

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:06 - ID#210235)
Good evening, Cherokee. Having a bit of sport I see. Hope the AGS continue to go your way.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:09 - ID#373403)
If this fractional money is in the stock market then a downturn in asset values underpinning the banking system, i.e. a stock market correction, would destroy the banking system.

Our 12% reserve requirements would mean that M3 growth of $430 Billion in the past twelve months indicates base money creation of $51.6 Billion. While this is still substantial, why does your explanation mean that the $430 Billion in fractional money created is not real in it's inflationary abilities?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:11 - ID#222231)
Greetings to the land of the rising sun.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:15 - ID#255190)
Let me make this very clear,
there will be no "USA" as you know it today after the year 2000 arrives. This will be true for the world financial system as well as international trade. At the very least this world is heading for a decade long depression of great severity.

I fully expect that our country, the most computer dependent country in the world, will not be operational after that date change.

If the EURO is a covert attempt to recreate a core financial system that might survive this finacial and economic holocost then more power to them. I hope something can be salvaged from this abismal mess.

As far as people in the USA or outside of it using the US$ as a medium of exchange, as a currency, I apologize, but you all will be holding virtually worthless paper.

At this point I think the exercise is academic. In less than two years we will face the worst systemic crisis the world has ever know. I dare say that no one will care much about the things we ramble about here at this time. We are at the zenith and soon to be at the midnight of our experience.

I hold solid gold and silver as well as US$ cash and food, free and clear. I am positioned to deal with this. 99% of most Americans and about 100% of the rest of the world will not be prepared.

This is not intended to shut down this conversation. Let it proceed. But my eyes are focused on an oncoming train which will not stop and which is coming on fast. IMO POG can go down, it can go up. It can go sideways. I do not care.

If you do not have your PM's now then WHEN will you pick it up? Do not wait for a line at a bank to convince you thatyou should have most of your hard earned money in cash of one kind or another. Even Euros! Remember Germany 1923.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:18 - ID#288157)
The WORLD is not just Europe; not just US--and the most PRODUCTIVE
part of the world, from whence the resources and all the nifty products, is NOT just the WEST...having said that, ask is the East willing to bow to the West's yoke yet again? One finds that very difficult to believe.

"THEY" are planning a TRIPOLOR currency WORLD.

Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four on International Monetary
Affairs--April 27, 1997 [Excerpt]

3. The consequences of introducing the single currency as a result of EMU are bound to be far-reaching for the international monetary system. There is therefore an urgent need for the IMF to exercise leadership to ensure that the transition to a TRIPOLAR currency system proceeds with much closer international coordination to minimize instability in the exchange and capital markets and to enhance the prospects for global prosperity. There are major implications of EMU for Fund surveillance, and it
is important to ensure that the current, undesirable asymmetries in
the application of surveillance are not further intensified by
the advent of EMU.

SOME of the folks at the 'meeting'--
Mr. Antonio Casas Gonzlez, President of the Central Bank of
Venezuela, was in the chair, with Mr. Abdelkrim Harchaoui of Algeria as First
Vice-Chairman, and Mr. G.L. Peiris of Sri Lanka as Second
The meeting was attended by {excerpts]Mr. Y. Seyyid Abdulai,
Director-General, OPEC Fund for International Development;
Mr. Stefan Balabanoff, OPEC;
Mr. Enam A. Chaudhury, Islamic Development Bank;
Mr. Liu Jibin, People's Republic of China;
Mr. Mohamed Seqat, Morocco;
Mr. Hamad Al-Sayari, Saudi Arabia
Mr. Trevor Manuel, South Africa.
url as previously noted

USD ( ? ) ; Euro ( for sure ) and.....
What is the only "currency" that NO ONE government "controls"...
and which has at least a nodding relationship to GOLD!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:18 - ID#222231)
The slings and arrows of misfortune fall upon me once again. I had hoped it would stop, but an agenda must be met by those with little class.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:19 - ID#247309)
Silverthorn_A(Preacher...silver help
Appreciate your analysis of gold today. I am long May silver from 5.93. Had one target of 6.49. The market hit 6.47, retraced to 6.27 ( my minimum was 6.25, and while I was watching the market sat around 6.35 and closed thereabout. Which way tomorrow? Anybody have ideas about platinum?

I appreciate all of the efforts at technical evaluation of the markets and find many of them very helpful. Thank you all!

Bill El Zebub
(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:19 - ID#261352)
All @ musing ...Is this all about BALANCE?The Middle East and Japan want AU
The US wants to dump some,Europe wants to juggle some,ANOTHER
is the educated stepchild of an Oil Shiek? I just want my 10

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:20 - ID#210235)
My 17:41 said much the same as yours - just a different style. Gotta go. Forgot, guest for dinner tonight!!!! Darn, this site is like a good book sometimes, just lose track of time.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:22 - ID#238422)
Your doubts are reasonable. Even more, there are
some bigger doubts I got. We got nothing less than
Phantom of Kitco on our hands, although quite impressive...

Bill El Zebub
(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:26 - ID#261352)
@ All @ Vronsky and Donald_A @ Japan Big Bang@ How do yo spell
BLOW OFF? Yeah! I'm short up to my eyeballs!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:27 - ID#288157)
Add Southeast Asia, season with the Russia & the Caspian "stans"
Director-General, OPEC Fund for International Development;
Mr. Stefan Balabanoff, OPEC;
Mr. Enam A. Chaudhury, Islamic Development Bank;
Mr. Liu Jibin, People's Republic of China;
Mr. Mohamed Seqat, Morocco;
Mr. Hamad Al-Sayari, Saudi Arabia

The Pivotal Power Block in the 21st century--
Mr. Enam A. Chaudhury, Islamic Development Bank--remember how the Islamic Development Bank translates 'business currencies'....

They will want--will DEMAND--a currency without hegemony and, further, a currency tied to gold--in SOME acceptable way!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:27 - ID#7568)

The credit money created is every bit as real as the printed money created at the base of the monetary pyramid. It most certainly can and will have inflationary effects. The price of many assets such as a share of Microsoft are wildly inflated.

It is true that if the collateral for the loans in the banking system is indirectly the stock market, then a serious decline in the stock market could unhinge the banking system. We know that the linkage is not direct because margin debt is only a hundred and change billion dollars. The big tickets are usually in the real estate market. But the effect will be the same. The point of my previous rambling was mostly that the end will not come until it is engineered by the Fed. As long as credit growth continues to expand the bubble will grow.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:28 - ID#304282)
DOW 9000 tomorrow

S&P 500 JUN98 1119.70 +260
E-MINI JUN98 1119.75 +275
SEP98 1131.75B +300
NSDQ100 JUN98 1223.00A +740

The end is almost here. Look for us to get close to 10000 in the coming weeks. Enjoy it while you can. The signs of mania are all around us. We may never catch a glimpse of 10000 in our lifetimes again.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:29 - ID#257253)
The Y2K juggernaut is NOT the problem. Trillions of funny money is. The Y2K problem is but a symptom of underlying problem, and will offer a n easy scapegoat or cover for the real problem. But whatever the true cause the net effect will be the same, i.e., disruption. Will not use the "D ( epression ) " word, because I heard it all my life from elders. But let not the lesson itself be lost in words.
OK, enough preacher talk. Enough doomsday. What to do now.
As posted before, bet the EURO. As a rational global citizen, I believe
in those that have learned from history, not those who will stumble through the same errors. Unless better signals are received from US and its "wisemen", I continue to believe that the mania will see its top. and its bottom.
Place your bets ( which is all you have done with the stock markets ) !

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:32 - ID#287358)

the slings and arrows of misfortune....poor fellow.

what is your opinion of bre-x....?
big trader.....?

you were not here when these episodes took place ( at least not posting ) , and now you would
chastise some here for expressing negativity at the veracity of another dummy? disneyland is hiring 'agile' minds for creative causes....give em a call...

!; ) ..harvester-of-the-rotten-wood...looking-for-john-barleycorn.....

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:38 - ID#368244)

Go figure, Turkey up a mere 27% tonight, strange world indeed.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:43 - ID#222231)
My such negativity. You must have bought into bre-x and now want to blame everyone else save yourself. Where do you and your cohorts get that venom?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:44 - ID#401460)
Pete (ALL)


Did I miss something again?


(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:44 - ID#257253)
DOW 100,000
Yes, it is possible! Believe!

Why not? Let's make to 100K, makes as much sense as 10K. We could use a logarithmic stock market scale! PE's in the 100's, and 1000's.
No limits. Accountants would choke. Lawyers would croak. Maybe the purgative our system needs. Only the producers would survive.
Now, I won't get carried away, save for the lesson only survivors will understand. Stretching the limits is a boundary problem, ie, it only happens a little at a time. Boiling a frog.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:48 - ID#411259)
..... Lime Away! .....

A call for the collected good vibes from the entire Kitco crowd. A couple of quick, but vicious storms will hit So Cal on the morrow. The RJ lime crop has suffered tremendous damage from the cumulative effects of recent storms. My precious little lime blossoms have stood courageously through wind and rain whilst their brethren loosened their hold and fell lifeless to the ground. For these fallen limes that will never be, there is no redemption. We need to address our efforts to the living.

For those that think this post is off subject:

There is a metaphor to be found in the above. Seems somehow appropriate, yes?

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:50 - ID#222231)
You have'nt missed a thing. It's a bustout nite with Allen and ANOTHER. Cherokee wants my arse, otherwise a normal nite.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:53 - ID#257253)
I have no hot beer, or mexican beer, and I KNOW better with Ta-Kill-Ya, so may your limes rest in peace.
We reamain the subjects of her majesty mother nature,

so pass a law, or better yet, pass gas!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:55 - ID#317193)
Dumb and Dumber
I'm sorry, once again I must be not just dumb but dumber. So the Euro will be backed by a large percentage of gold and replace the US$ in oil sales. OK, where do I go from here? I think I'm back to derivatives. No offense Allen, Pete, etc. By the way I do have a few extra Bre-X shares I could be talked into selling, I'll even accept fiat money. Call me in ten years and will explain this to all. I'm obviously not able to understand it now. Tom g'nite

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:57 - ID#334280)
US- No involvement in African affairs like with Europe.
ROBNOEL: Just came across your 21:19 post blasting Clinton for saying US has not done right for Africa. You focus on the slavery thing, but I think his comments focus on the role US has NOT had in the many African civil wars/slaughters/massacres, news which gets buried in the back pages of the newspaper. Somehow, black suffering doesn't seem to hit home as much as white suffering ( e.g. Sarajevo ) . Why not a European coalition to intervene when one Tutu tribe wipes out another? Clinton's statements were on target.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:58 - ID#341288)
pgu trades on the nasdq symbol is pgsqf

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:58 - ID#411259)
..... For Pete's Sake .....

Pete -

I am here to testify, cherokee has NO cohorts. He rides the wind; a restless spirit. One may as well wrestle with the mysterious sirocco that unsettles your camels and steals your tent in the night.

Fight the wind

Rail against gravity

Will electrons to leave their orbit

But do not fight cherokee


(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:58 - ID#238422)
Preacher, how is your Canadian Gentleman doing?
Any news on when he starts running Norilsk?

Preacher, your technical analysis is usually interesting,
but you do not take into consideration that you can not
probably apply rules of technical analysis to the open
"shortsellers market".That is why you have some problems.
All big buyers and big sellers are currently operating
outside the open market. So, you are trying to analyze open
market w/o "normal" buyers and "normal" sellers, but saturated
with short sellers. Just a thought why it does not work
at THIS TIME....but will probably work later. Keep posting...

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:59 - ID#411112)
RJ,should of known are you from the land of fruit an nuts

where else could a Titanic gold lover be from,peace love dove brother........whats the deal with the limes........

(Tue Mar 24 1998 22:59 - ID#287358)


take your barbless hook and fish elsewhere....newbie-itis becomes you.

i've no paper except what was given....and i'll soon sell it.

the truth is usually quite un-palatable....go ahead and'll feel better, and you should know better.....don't tug on the cape.

read kitco....the archives on bre-x and big trader.....who said what,

and when.....THWOCK! there...your hide hangs high....phew....

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:01 - ID#288157)

" urgent need ... to exercise leadership to ensure that the
transition to a TRIPOLAR currency system proceeds with much closer
international coordination to minimize instability in the exchange and capital markets..."

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:02 - ID#247309)
(Scarface - internet trading of commodities
is financial suicide and I assume you are either naive or trying to get at some kind of off-shore kind of thing. Rule number one of commodities trading is that you will lose money, at least to start with and statistically in the long term as well. Rule number two is don't trade commodities on the internet - read prior posts today about the 310 gold long assumed to be an internet typo trade. And finally, if you want to use an off-shore trading entity or broker you need to do a lot more homework and don't expect too much free reliable info on the internet.

Start by paper trading and by reading the posts here - there are some really smart guys sharing their skills here. Good luck!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:05 - ID#78136)
re your post y2k. I generally agree with you. I
have read everything on the web, books and have
emailed the banks I deal with, CPRail, Air Canada,
City, Province,etc. Most have standard form letters.
The bottom line is that the world is unprepared.
Britain added this to the G8 meetings in May.
The best confirmation I could get is from a former
client who has struck gold with y2k fixes. I won't
bore you with the details, but when I asked him where he
was going to be on January 1, 2000, he responded on an
island in the Carribean. No one can predict the outcome,
but you must plan for the worst and pray for the best. To
the others here they should recognize the various
psychological stages one goes through on this issue--
ignorance, denial, anger, resolve and finally action.
For all you wallstreeters, the State of NY has chartered
a Concorde on December 15/99, have contracted with U.K.
Programmers at the rate of $5,000 per diem until they are
no longer required. If Allen's prediction and many others
comes true, they may be a long time getting back to the
U.K. I urge everyone to investigate the y2k issue and make
their own informed judgement.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:05 - ID#304282)
This sure isn't comforting
Graeme Inchley, head of the Australian government's Year 2000 initiative created to fix the "millennium computer bug" in the nations information systems, said yesterday that Australia has run out of time to fix its year 2000 problems and will not be prepared by January 1, 2000. He said in an interview that the best they could do was to fix its most critical systems and put up "word arounds" for the others. He said, "The government is going through an assessment of its areas of greatest risk and will have to move very quickly in order to at least be able to operate by 2000."

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:05 - ID#222231)

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:06 - ID#201238)
RJ needs a lemon-lime tree
RJ - perhaps your problem is that you of all people are too narrow minded! I recall being in you neck of the woods visiting relatives when a young boy was asked to pick us some lemons to take home. He came in and told his mother that he had found a lemon-lime tree. Some were yellow and thus lemons and others were green and thus limes! Ah beauty is only in the eye of the beholder!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:07 - ID#341288)
I gave you wrong symbol. should have read psgqf

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:09 - ID#341214)
Allen, Charles Keeling, The Hermit: Y2K
Allen: You nailed it! I was looking for a mention of the National Guard. After seeing that article I'm going on record with a prediction: That National Guard troops will be deployed in and around major US cities on Dec 31, 1999.

Charles Keeling: Regarding contracting, come on in and join us in the pool but be careful. Some of those projects over in the deep end will pull you under. Right now I'm taking a very close look at projects before I decide to take them on. You don't want to take on something that can not possibly be finished on time and then find a couple of sharks swimming after you.

Why do you feel that the stuff is going to hit the fan in early 1999? I think we could easily slip though much of 1999 with general awareness levels remaining where they are now. Invisible. People are already sick of Y2K. I'm sick of it. Governments may run into a lot of problems as they move to fiscal 2000 around the middle of the year but I don't see much solid proof coming out of what Y2K is going to do until we actually get there. My outlook would change if the governments and the media started yelling from the rooftops but I don't see that happening. It's also possible that people will wake up and see the impact that remediation will have on earnings. NOT! I'd be very interested in hearing your opinion.

silver plate
(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:10 - ID#288433)
You are more difficult to interpret than ANOTHER.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:13 - ID#401460)

It was up almost 12% today!


(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:14 - ID#257253)
Yes, it is possible, but it is like announcing your going to blow up the world on Jan 1, 2000. As a Computer Engineer I wish to inform you that this is much like the lady in waiting, much effort is expended in the anticipation, to take the edge off the reality. The twenty years of waiting ( time of existence for Y2K ) will let you down when it occurs!

But it gives us so much to distraction.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:15 - ID#257136)
Cavender: re: your 22:57. Since it is basicsally a cultural thing with the bosnians and the hutus
and tutsies, or tutus and hutsiea, whatever, why should we get excited about either?
As in the US, the problem, to hear ol' b.j. tell it, is due to availability of firearms.
"course he has never said that about Burundi or Zaire or ugunda or any other african nation.
Only about the descendants of those tribes who live in US.
He and his keepers have a solution for the intertribal and clan killing in the sociopathic inner cities!
Take away all the guns from the majority in the Nation and solve the problem.

I believe he would also have to take away all the machetes, clubs, ball bats, knives and razors, as well as wires and cords and butcher knives .

One would think that his having been raised in Arkansasa he would know that people do operate on one another with whatever is at hand.

Rhodes Scholars are a singularly ignorant bunch when it comes to social mores and tribal and clan turf wars.

Or so they seem to be!! Go GOLD!!!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:17 - ID#31868)
robnoel - cavender - hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
I put to the both of you that no clean conversation can be had regarding America and Africa - NONE - The Coward Erect is a dirtbag, that is clear and becoming more so with each piece of inventory as it is introduced.

Let this one clean conversation can be had.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:19 - ID#368244)

Down .70 cents------------------------Bart, bring on the fees, maybe

something will work then.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:20 - ID#255151)
I Never Metaphor I Didn't Like

There are some AWESOME posters at Kitco. Hell, even the whiners are good. Relax, fellow Kitcoites, and appreciate the fact that we have the best seat in the House. Enjoy the show!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:21 - ID#255151)
I Never Metaphor I Didn't Like

There are some AWESOME posters at Kitco.
Hell, even the whiners are good. Relax,
fellow Kitcoites, and appreciate the fact
that we have the best seat in the House.
Enjoy the show!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:21 - ID#341288)
glad i could be of some help. goodnight everyone try not to argue so much

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:22 - ID#190411)
robneoel's tirade
The one who cannot be touched by our laws, and HIS entourage calls "European Americans" to task for the wretced tribal bloodletting in Africa. Meanwhile, He does his best to encourage the same here with his prattle about multiculturalism. I will do what I can to pass on our civilisation - "Euro-Ammericun"- to my children. Among some of my fine employees there,is a nascent awakening toward learning something of American values and culture.

One mustn't forget that the socialists were the ones that ruined the natural paradise of South Africa.

One day, it will be Africa's turn. But not with what peckerwood is dreaming up with his trip there. Please accept my apology, but, I cannot really, for, I had nothing to do with it. GO Au,Ag,Pt,Pd,Y,Yt,Tb,etc.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:23 - ID#411112)
Cavender,you either do not live in the US or did not understand my post
Clinton is pandering to the Black US vote bybring up slavery,there are greater sins being committed by blacks on blacks in Africa to-day...then anything that happened in US history,Slavery is alive and well in Africa today....does the main street press talk about it no,did Clinton talk about it no....did the NAACP talk about it no.....did that idiot Jesse Jackson talk about it no.... Cavender don't talk to me about Clinton ...he is nothing but a two bit was his type....Jimmy Carter...Cyris Vance...Henry Kissenger.....and that piece of s##t they call the UN that destroyed my the liberal/commie line.... but you don't want to hunt with this dog

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:24 - ID#257253)
The fact that y2k has hit the mainstream and media is enough to prove that it is well beyond a planned solution. If the Comp Sci's and others have not sought and found a solution by now, then it is indeed too late!
Like many other things, once it hits mainstream, it is like so much flotsam. It is in the tulip stage, and some may try to capitalize at the expense of others.
Stick with gold.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:27 - ID#78136)
There are various important strike dates. The earliest state
to go into fiscal 00 is NY in April 99. If there are computer
glitches, they will immediately occur, if they are going to,
in that month of April. The rest of the states are July/99.
This allows us to monitor public bodies that can't hide the
problem very long if welfare checks don't go out. A very
important date is 9/9/99 which was used in these old cobol
programs as a garbage file by many short-sighted programmers.
I predict that 80% of the population by mid 99 will still be in
denial, with the rest of the population at various other stages.
However, I expect less than 1% to actually be prepared at the
millenium, specifically having a rural retreat, at least one
year supply of food for each family member, guns, living off
the grid,etc. You may need to use your stores of gold, but if
this thing ever gets fixed, you should be in the pink to
re-puchase the property you sold. The haunting specter for me
is that I may like the lifestyle and not want to come back. So
be it.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:28 - ID#267298)
Irrational Exubererance
Does anyone know the date and what the DOW was at when
AG commented on Irrational Exubererance? I believe it was
approximately Nov/Dec 96 and the DOW was somewhere
between 6000/6500? If someone can be more specific, please
post the actual. If he indeed was concerned at that point in time,
what must he be thinking today? MANIA I think, doesn't even
come close to describing whats happening today - its INSANITY.
Funny thing that we don't hear AG saying too much these days,
I think he Knows its beyond his control.

Any Comments???

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:30 - ID#288157)
The face of racism--Western Banks are NOT at fault--the fault is ASIA's [sorry for the length]

World bank: Developing countries may suffer private capital fall
WEDNESDAY MARCH 25 1998--By Peter Montagnon, Asia Editor

Private capital flows to developing countries are likely to fall this year in the wake of the Asian economic crisis from the record of $256bn set in 1997, the World Bank says.

The bank's figures, in its annual analysis of Global Development Finance,
show that private flows now vastly exceed official aid, which has been
declining for many years.

Official aid did rise last year to $44bn from $35bn, mainly because of the nternational rescue package for Thailand. The World Bank says the Asian crisis will lead to slower flows of capital through the international bond and equity markets. But it says this may be
offset to some degree by higher foreign direct investment, which accounted for 47 per cent of flows to developing countries last year. This may even increase in 1998 as multinational companies seek to exploit low asset prices and production costs in Asia resulting from currency devaluations.

The prospects for capital flows are uncertain, however, and will depend on policy responses in the countries most affected by the crisis. With suitable corrective action the disruption to capital flows should not last too long, the bank says, noting the speed with which Argentina and Mexico were able to return to international capital markets after the 1994-95 crisis.

But the downside risks are considerable, the bank says, and there is a chance that private capital flows will fall sharply. Continued devaluation in Asia will lower the competitiveness of countries such as China, whose currencies have maintained their parities. Intensification of the crisis could cause industrial country stock markets to fall, prompting a "flight to quality", which would hit flows to emerging markets.

International banks with exposure in east Asia could also be placed at risk, the World Bank says. The assets of banks from the leading Group of Seven industrial countries in the five Asian countries hardest hit by the crisis amount to 27 per cent of their total capital.

For Japanese banks the ratio is 43 per cent, although the overall share is lower than the 60 per cent of capital tied up in Latin American loans by industrial country banks during that region's debt crisis of the 1980s.

The World Bank says it is struck by the role played in the Asian crisis by a self-fulfilling loss of market confidence. Asian countries had made themselves vulnerable by weakness in their financial sectors, poor corporate governance, failure to accompany financial liberalisation with better regulation and supervision, and by exchange rate regimes that encouraged external borrowing in liquid international markets.

Lenders and credit rating agencies also failed to assess the situation properly, it says, but a big problem was the loss of confidence caused by lack of transparency, which prevented investors from distinguishing between good and bad debtors. With this factor aggravated by substantial uncovered foreign exchange exposure, currency depreciation became self-perpetuating."

Are we being asked to believe that SEAsia is incompetent but Mexico is
a symbol of fiscal probity! Codswallop! Double Codswallop!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:31 - ID#339212)
@ Isure, Nothing strange about Turkey

The 27% increase in the turkish stock market, indicates either a devaluation is to come, or a devaluation has just occured, ( inflation in Turkey is 90% ) .

Last week Greece devalued the drachma by 14%, and the stock market went up by 30%. In such countries people use stock markets for hedges agains capital loss. Anything away from paper - even the stock market is safer than paper! Brazil and many other S. American countries acted similarily when their currencies devalued.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:32 - ID#267298)
I mean Exuberance not Exubererance

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:34 - ID#368244)

Feelings run deep when our heritage, freedoms , and pride are stripped from us. Goodnight and God bless!!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:40 - ID#31868)
DBog your "I mean Exuberance not Exubererance."
I think you had it right, it was exuberance, but now it is EXUBERERANCE!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:42 - ID#215379)
Free Market, HUMBUG
Man-ipulation is the name of this market. Wise King Solomon said it best, "everthing ( relating to Man ) is vanity." ( ECCLESIASTES 12: 13 ) "The conclusion of the matter, everything having been heard, is: Fear the true God and keep his commandments. For this is the whole obligation of man."

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:43 - ID#401460)
Oil for Palaces not Oil for Food
The oil-for-food program allows Iraq to sell limited quantities of oil to buy needed food and medicine for its 22 million people. It is an exception from U.N. trade sanctions imposed after Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait.

Iraq has said, however, it may only be able to sell $4 billion worth of oil - and that only if
the United Nations approves badly needed spare parts and chemicals for the oil Industry.

Give the SOB more money he will just build another 8 palaces. Saddam is the one hurting his people. Oil for Palaces not Oil for Food. Thats like Clinton blaiming every one else for his problems.


(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:44 - ID#267298)
Kind of sounds like I stutter with the words doesn't it
tolerant1 t1 t1

Old Soldier
(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:44 - ID#185274)
Y2K will hit the fan well before 1-1-2000
The weak link in Y2K in terms of U.S. mass reaction is the supply and demand of cash. Most Americans carry very little cash. There are already numerous articles out there saying that having extra cash on hand is a prudent measure. Some people have already taken action on accumulating cash. The amount of cash available in the U.S. is quite small compared to the potential demand. The first time someone tries to get cash out of his bank and is denied it, the press will be notified and the panic will follow with the speed of modern communication. There is nothing that can be done about this. The Bureau of Printing and Engraving is operating at or close to capacity now. They literally cannot come close to printing enough to meet demand. The day is fast approaching when you will not be able to increase your supply of cash, Au, Ag, Pb or Fe to accelerate your Pb to social velocity. The social destruction will not wait until 1-1-2000 to commence. It would not surprise me if it began well before 1-1-99.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:46 - ID#31868)
They DO want us to believe everything they put in print. Codswalop, great word, right up there with BRABO!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:48 - ID#257253)
closing note
Kitco denizens, rest easy, that redemption must occur in accordance with the immutable laws of economics, nature, finance, and oh, of course, human nature.

ANOTHER is right, as are many on this site, but what we lack are the clear details of implementation. A curse of soothsayers, that the big picture matches, but the world redeems only the precise!

Fall Back on the foundation
Rest on Centuries

Fidelis Aurum Semper

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:48 - ID#288157)
mmmh, Tolerant1 is brabo a word I should know?
or not? {:- )

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:49 - ID#222231)
ALL, Cherokee
Goodnite and pleasant dreams. Sorry for being a jerk again.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:49 - ID#287358)
Pegasus Gold has been trading on the Montreal exchange for
a month or more. Tuesday it went up two cents to .60, and this
is Canadian, so that about equals the .48 ( U.S. ) on the Nasdaq.

My guess is that it just now started trading again on the
Nasdaq, so the change from last close was large.

They had $27 MN in cash, which would tide them over for at
least a year. Cost of production is about 275/OZ. I do have
a nice position in it and am looking for a Douglas Casey-type

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:51 - ID#31868)
I think it was oris one evening with a typo, sort of like DeBog below, but in that instance it was Bravo! which came out Brabo! and I kinda liked Brabo! better, it had styyyle!

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:53 - ID#69149)
Y2K Reactions
I have posted Y2K-related links to some friends and relatives of mine and so far it has been roughly 1/3 no response, 1/3 denial/skepticism and 1/3 "Ohmygosh!". A showcase of human nature.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:53 - ID#288157)
Aimed at UK? surely not? verrrry interesting....
FT Wed Mar 25 1998 Top story:
Brussels puts emphasis on ERM membership A report by the European Commission will today confirm that countries wanting to join the European single currency must be members of the exchange rate mechanism.

(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:54 - ID#401460)

Clitton should visit the Arab World, where if he started to mess around with one of their daughters he would find his pecker in his mouth when he awoke or a curved bladed knife at his Groin.

I like the way he is giving away america's money to Africa for the CIA's and Bill Gate's Internet.

I am starting to get pissed off again like so many others here - I better go to bed. I may as well, Kitco only has accurate info 50% of the time anymore. No Gold price since 3:00 close, 9 hours ago. That is not very good.

Bart who supplies or doesn't supply the data to you, or is that a secret also.

Good Night All, Now be nice to one another, we have to hang together through all of this.


(Tue Mar 24 1998 23:56 - ID#287358)


jacques cousteau predicted the need to euthanize 200 MILLION people
per year till we reached a population that the earth could sustain.
the nwo has not released this number....
this speech was given to the UN! THEY ( nwo ) believe that it is their
duty to control the world's population using whatever means necessary.

look at africa....torn by strife and starvation. how is it possible
people are starving in todays modern world? africa has been chosen
as one of the killing fields jacques cousteau deemed necessary.
the nwo has decided how many people the earth shall maintain....and
they are actively pursuing that agenda.

to slavery---

the slave trade existed ( and still does ) in africa as a part of their
SELF-INITIATED tribal ways. the portugese, dutch, and spainards, exploited and exported this profitable commodity around the world.
it is incredible that american white males are being demonized as the
evil slave traders, when the truth reveals the slave trade started

want to know what henry kissinger GAVE russia?

read-----'kissinger on the couch' by retired admiral chester ward

it will make your hair stand on end....conspiricy? damned right lgb....