Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:01 - ID#401460)

Thanks for the Pegasus Gold info, I may buy more tomorrow.

And thanks again Chessy.

Good Night!


(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:03 - ID#411259)
..... Discovery! .....

Arden -

Send boxcar of LLs post haste. I must experience this. Send bill to robnoel for he knows not what the limes are for.

Robnoel -

I drink four, maybe five bottles of Coronas per month. Each is swilled with RJ limes. It must be this way.

Pete -

As well you should.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:04 - ID#257253)
World Capacity
Meier predicted in his book that the world could sustain as many as 25 billion, but only at soylent green levels. The truly comfortable levels lie in the teens. Where? 12 maybe. Think of square footage of food production per head. Sustainable levels, no cheating.

this is a most fascinating subject that could be off by billions!

It's like economics, no penalty for being wrong!

Harry Truman said, "what I need is a good one-handed economist"

If economists were held to their conclusions, they would be on the endangered species list.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:04 - ID#411259)
..... D.A. --> Thanks .....


Hey fella', give the fingers a well deserved rest. Your recent posts have exceed their customary excellence.

Somebody posted that we are now at odds on our positions. I think it is less a case of different views than different time frames. I admit to sometimes being the whore of the day, and will unabashedly sell any of my beloved metals into the dirt for some decent profits in a market that will go down with or without me. I still fear nothing lower than 280 gold. If that support is broken it will not be for long and the recovery, albeit modest, will follow hard on the heels by. On all this I think we agree.

I recall you explaining that your trades are entirely computer generated, please correct me if I am wrong. The market showed a buy for gold this week............ but it still doesn't feel right

Charts and inventories and macro economics and oil and the DOW and dojis and haramis and moving averages and all sorts of other indicators may say do this, but sometimes it comes down to a feeling. Something more than a hunch but less than knowledge. Kind of like watching the live price feed from the floor; some days you get a feel for the cadence and you intuitively know what the market is trying to do - even though this may run contrary to the technicals. After more ups and down than I could ever count, I have intimately traded almost every price range. Something still feels weak about gold. Silver has a lot of room, but it gets a little scary with a dollar downside in a heartbeat. Only in platinum am I convinced that the move will be soon and severe and up.

There is an old axiom is chess. Something like, "When in doubt, take a pawn". More times than not, doubts about these markets are best followed by inaction. But I still lament those trades I felt were wise but the charts argued contrary.

Thanks for the posts, and the insights. A client faxed me one of your posts on silver last week, said, "you gotta' read this guy, he knows his stuff." When he found I was already familiar with your work, his estimation of me rose by proxy. Thanks for the assist..


I read some very interesting numbers today about a $400 + million joint effort between Ford and Mercedes Benz to develop fuel cell technology. If this info has already been posted, let me know, otherwise I will dig up a link. I only saw a hard copy, but I believe it came off the Internet. I don't feel like typing the entire notice.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:06 - ID#215208)
Silver and platinum?
Silverthorn - I don't consider my predictive capabilities in the same class as those of APH and other Kitco greats, but for what its worth, I was waiting for platinum to hit the top of its channel, which I had pegged around 423-425 ( London close ) . It closed yesterday at 422, and I decided that was close enough and closed out my long position at 421 this morning, and went short. It can drift back down well under 400 without breaking out of its new upward-trending channel. Since platinum and palladium tend to make major peaks at the same time, I also took a short position in June palladium ( gulp! ) at 278. So far these trades are looking OK.

As for silver, I am in the long camp. However, I have waited until it

seemed highly probable that the lows are behind us, to increase my

position. I will buy more on the next dip back to the 6.15 range.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:10 - ID#339265)
...then you will see a plethora of new posters appear on this forum. Many of the new posters will be curious to learn about the metal and determine if they should invest. However, I expect most of the new posters will seek to propagandize against the metal. These nervous gold shorts will eagerly seek to enlighten goldbugs as to the gross stupidity of their PM investments.

Therefore, I suggest that forum members be extremely cynical of new posters bringing "bad" news about gold or gold-related developments.

In any case, I feel that, at this point in time, most gold shorts have lost their ability to frighten the gold bugs to any significant degree. I can best illustrate this point by drawing an analogy to "The Boy Cries Wolf" fable.

For the past several years, the gold shorts have been warning the world at large that gold is just another commodity whose ultimate value will be a mere single figure multiple of silver's value. Each time a central bank sold gold, the PM shorts cried, "Wolf!!!" Naturally, goldbugs would run for cover whenever they heard the cry.

Yet, several years later, goldbugs are keenly aware that gold is not being abandoned by the superpower central banks in any way, shape, or form. It is now obvious that most central bank sales have simply been transfers from weaker central bank hands to other, stronger central banks.

The gold shorts will continue to cry "WOLF!" The effect should be nil except for newcomers to the gold game who have not figured out the constant, increasingly panicky manipulations of the gold shorts.

F* ( on a work-break )

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:11 - ID#255151)

My limited research says that the United States leads the world in dealing with the Y2K computer problem, followed by Canada, then Australia. Europe is in the talking stage, and Asia has given virtually no thought at all to this ( Singapore might be an exception ) . England is somewhere between Europe and Australia. Is this an accurate assessment?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:15 - ID#411112)
RJ,let me guess,you live either in Marin County or Orange County,you strike me as being maybe
ah how about Newport,knew a few folks that did that quante American thing of destroying perfectly good beer,by sticking a sour fruit in the way,I picked up on the 4 aces not being to paranoid or anything but someone changed my ID

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:16 - ID#339212)
@ DJ on Platinum, Palladium

I agree with you on the Pt, Pd intermediate tops, so I sold SWC ( Stillwater Mng ) at a 4 point profit and I am now waiting for a pullback in these two metals.

However, if gold rallies there will be no pullback. That is the risk one has to take.

It is possible that after April 1st the Japanese will start investing in gold stocks. If they do, we may very well see a good rally in golds.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:17 - ID#298259)
PGU has been trading on the OTC BB under the symbol PSGQF since it's delisting from the NASDAQ. *f was the one to alert us of this. I have not been able to get any quotes during the day for PSGQF. The quote becomes available after the last trading for the day, generally around 5:30-6pm. Quotes are available throughout the day for PGU.M

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:18 - ID#247309)
(DJ)Thank you
I agree, except short wild palladium? Brave man, you.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:23 - ID#78136)
Auric y2k
I agree that the U.S. leads the way. Latest Fed gov't fix is
estimated at $4.7B. If Canada is next, the rest of the world
is in trouble. StatsCan released a survey a few months ago
which demonstrated that we are woefully behind in our fix
solutions--only one in ten companies with more than 5 employees
had started on the problem. The Aussies are not in good shape.
Less than 5% of German industry has started. Remember, the
systems should by y2k compliant by the start of 99 to allow
a years testing time. There no way that most in Asia can
wrestle this bug to the ground with their present financial
difficulties. I suggest you expand your "limited reading".

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:25 - ID#31868)
go to and click on the link BULLETIN BOARD FORUM in the right window. You may find an answer there, in addition you will find a great deal of other information.

It is interesting to read about gold, executive orders, and much, much more.

Hope this helps.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:25 - ID#339212)
@ Farfel

We will elect a Kitco educational team to educate the newcomers to PM investing. I do not think that any PM negativity during a sustained rally will go well on this forum.

However, the perception is changing. More positive talk in the last 2 weeks everywhere. And the new coin is definetely a plus.

Question: How come we don't have other economists like you believing in PMs? How did you escape the Yale brainwashing?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:25 - ID#411112)
RJ,never mind aces are back....time for bed...maybe time for a shrinkta (jewish for head docter)

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:26 - ID#39971)
RJ--Fuel Cell
That is a deal with Ballard Power of Vancouver.Symbol BLD on Toronto.

RE:GOLD.....Stay tuned for a link or post from OLD GOLD in the next few

days on the Frank Veneroso teleconference today.Very interesting stuff.

Short term......a little weakness maybe...long term....look up to see

whats coming down.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:27 - ID#411259)
..... robnoel .....

Newport Beach Lad!

Land-o-augmented breasts in neon tube tops. Lan-o-billion dollar derivative trades with taxpayer $, land-o-phonies and petty pretentious preenings. Land-o-Monex. Land-o-Me....................

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:27 - ID#257253)
Agree with assessment the US has most to lose. Only because we have most extensive and dependent system on computers. Also in forefront of the solution for same reason. By the time media and bureaucracy has locked on and makes it news, it is too late. Done.

Look elsewhere.

Starts with a G, ends with and D and is very old indeed!

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:30 - ID#215208)
Myrmidon - Have a soft spot for SWC. I visited the mine last July. Snuggled up against Montana's Beartooth mountains. Absolutely gorgeous location. I will probably also buy some again. I hope for a pull back to around 20. As their hedges fall off this year, it should start inching up. This will probably be a "buy and hold" ( for awhile ) .

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:31 - ID#255151)

In less than one week will be April 01, 1998. I keep hearing about the Big Bang in Japan. I've heard other such Dates of Doom. Like Halloween, '97. Now, my question is simple, "Will April Fool's Day be a non-event, or will there be fireworks, eh?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:31 - ID#287358)


it is not a question of how many peopleo the earth can sustain...
it is a question of the nwo deciding who lives, and who dies,
based on their elitist perceptions of the new order to come.
the constitution of the us has become a piece of paper----
here-to-fore, it was a way of it is bastardized
from sig's......we are witnesses to the royal scam--steely dan--
yet it as if the snake has mesmerized the rat with its' stare. by the
time the peopleo awaken, they will have snake-bites all over their heads.
the snake has waited paitently, he is coiled, anticipating the body strike that will fell the foe of the nwo....the peopleo, yearning to be free....we the nation under god, divisible by our government and special interest groups.....divide and conquer. simple as that.

what is going on today? division and fractionation. destroy from lgb, this is no conspiricy.....just chaos and flux
coming to visit you and yours.


(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:36 - ID#39971)

My understanding ( limited too ) is Canada is further ahead than any other

country at this time.Don't know where I read it.US second and the rest

sound right.Euro folks say they have things " under control "..uh huh.

US is trying to " steal " all of our programmers.Offering golf in January

and trips to Dizzy Land.Gotta like it.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:36 - ID#339212)
@ DJ on SWC

Are there any options of the stock and if so what is the symbol?
I like SWC and I will get back in it. Around $20 is also my target reentry.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:38 - ID#411112)
RJ..small world I used to play in that cess pool,

hows LOU baby doing,I know all the men in the shadows....and now I have your number....I'am in the valley of the sun,Americas most livable traffic,no smog,no leaf blowers,no drop dead good looking women just the desert,and ice cold Bass beer.....this is the America I love

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:39 - ID#257253)
Riding more than just waves, my friend.
More like the smoke from the peyote.
But hear, hear, you, and your subtle breeze,
that knows at least the night

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:40 - ID#373403)
Gold Limit Up!
We are conducting a test of the Gold Alert System, this is only a test. Gold Limit Up!

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:44 - ID#20137)
Eligible silver down another 1 million ounces (WOW!!) and it went directly out of comex.
Gold stocks continue to be FROZEN ( since March 16th ) . My be your last change to get all the eligible stocks at $73,501,432.20 ( spot $200.10 tonight. Please note that gold volume was 88,000 today alone.


Gold 88,000

COMEX Final Volume/open Interest by Month:
Gold & Silver

-- GOLD --
Finals for March 23
Contract Volume Open Int Change
March 98 0 0 + 0
April 98 47982 55804 - 12428
May 98 3 5 + 3
June 98 11557 54053 + 6878
Aug. 98 176 7491 + 91
Oct. 98 15 4075 + 8
Dec. 98 584 15179 - 365
Feb. 99 5 7805 + 0
April 99 0 6859 + 0
June 99 183 12036 + 16
Aug. 99 0 453 + 0
Oct. 99 0 204 + 0
Dec. 99 1 5979 + 0
June 00 0 4458 + 0
Dec. 00 0 5045 + 0
June 01 0 2152 + 0
Dec. 01 0 4868 + 0
June 02 0 1549 + 0
Dec. 02 0 55 + 0
Total 60506 188070 - 5797

warehouse stocks:
GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

321,832 0 0 0 0 321,832
245,742 0 0 0 0 245,742
567,574 0 0 0 0 567,574


0 0 39,797,762
-1,030,883 0 49,119,761
-1,030,883 0 88,917,523

My questions are:

Just how long is comex going to have it's eligible stocks frozen?

What does it mean when acutal bullion doesn't trade ( move ) when paper certificates for said bullion trade fiercely?

Where is Questor and Tyler Rose?
Did they get their comex gold ???
Folks please put out a feeler for these guys. They have gone missing and we should find out what happened to them.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:46 - ID#287358)


speak not of that which you know not.......

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:47 - ID#411112)
Cherokee,what a nite,find out RJ at my old haunt,now you surfer dude and smart...

when I was surfer dude I was liberal,wanted to save everything ,whales dolphins,birds,now I'am older I just eat them,great post earlier,petty so many are so the way I grew up on Jeffries Bay barrels

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:48 - ID#215208)
SWC options?
Myrmidon - Can't help you on that. Rarely do options. Holding only Dec 98 330 gold calls I bought a couple weeks ago. : )

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:51 - ID#266105)
@french oui, german ja

Where is Questor and Tyler Rose?
Did they get their comex gold ???
Folks please put out a feeler for these guys. They have gone missing and we should find
out what happened to them.


I'll consult the Oija board.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 00:55 - ID#257253)
no speak
of not, speak not,
know knot, speak volumes
high desert wishes you well


(Wed Mar 25 1998 01:00 - ID#287358)


i live in the water...and dream of utah powder at alta....
wish we had waves like this in galveston...we had 5' breakers
today....and it was awesome....heading back east wed or thur...
got one hell of a dose of sol as a beet....

(Wed Mar 25 1998 01:02 - ID#330175)
April Gold down .60 @ 299.30.......and some great HOCKEY playoff action
Quebec Remarts 2 Cape Breton Screaming Eagles 1 ( ) Eddie + MOI enjoyed the game but wished fer a differen't outcome....Hit the casino after the game and the 'bad luck' continued.....Maybe tomorrow our luck will change,huh....

(Wed Mar 25 1998 01:04 - ID#247309)
(A.Goose - *FROZEN*?
What does "frozen" mean in COMEX terminology? No delivery against contract? If I don't see an answer here before Wed a.m. I will try to find out. Was this preceded by a large withdrawal pre-3/16? Maybe this concept of freezing could be extended to the federal debt.
Off now to sample a wee dram of the holy water from Jura and to bed.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 01:09 - ID#287358)


my friend....the healing smoke is in-bound...i'll send
a sick seagull to visit you when i get back home.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 01:12 - ID#339265)
...for about a year prior to the October "correction," CNBC regularly featured a well-known Yale professor ( Shiller ) to speak of the over-valuation of the DOW. This erudite, soft-spoken, incisive gentleman regularly drew analogies between '97's equities markets and the markets preceding the '29 crash -- without actually declaring a direct relationship between the two markets. In other words, he was very subtle for fear of alarming the investing public. Similarly, he "suggested" hard assets and mining stocks would be the best protection against market turbulence.

Why did CNBC regularly bring out such an articulate bear given the network's obvious bias in promoting the bull market?

The answer is simple: most of the Wall Street Gang consider Ivy League professors, academic economists, and their ilk to be completely talentless where the stock market is concerned. Academics are regular targets of scorn by the captains of industry and finance. In the minds of most businessmen, when the economists are most gloomy, that's the time to buy! They are perceived as a contrarian signal to the market professionals.

Essentially, CNBC exposed the professor to the public for the sole purpose of turning him into a living joke.

However, after the market debacle in Oct. '97, professor Shiller no longer seemed to be such a living joke. So now, he seems to have disappeared from the face of the least as far as CNBC is concerned. His ominous opinions are no longer sought by the network.

It seems obvious that the professor was just a little too perceptive and accurate in his evaluation of the patently over-valued stock market.

Today, CNBC seems determined not to repeat its mistakes of the past. It still occasionally brings forward "bearish" analysts...however, the network always endeavors to ensure that these analysts are not particularly well-educated nor especially articulate...very simply, they express the bearish point of view in the most elementary, unconvincing manner.


(Wed Mar 25 1998 01:16 - ID#288157)
Well, this is their story.....
The Economist--Mar 21-27
Saving is supposedly vital for economic growth. So why are some of the worlds most reluctant savers prospering as more frugal countries struggle?

Combine artificially cheap capital with cronyism and government meddling, and the result was that money frequently went into those projects with the best connections rather than those with the best economic prospects.

Please understand: it is not that one disagrees with anything above stated. These are not laudable attitudes, nor are they exclusively Asian attitudes; they are human attitudes and readily observable in all economies, in every country, through all times.

It is apparent the Explanatory Script of What Went Wrong has been drafted, approved and the leading scapegoat role has been cast. When the first Western Bank falters, the defamation program will be disseminated. [And if a major Japanese bank fails, a few Western Banks will falter as if receiving--at the very least--a hard blow in the solar plexus. No less than they deserve.]

And the poor beetle, that we tread upon,
In corporal sufferance finds a pang as great
As when a giant dies.
Measure for Measure


(Wed Mar 25 1998 01:19 - ID#341214)
bulldog, Old Soldier
bulldog: I agree that the April 99 date will be important. From what I've read NY is not in good Y2K shape. I'm sure that it will take several months for news of any problems to trickle out to us. Surely they will get some things fixed and welfare is an obvious high profile application. What I think a lot of people might overlook is that these Y2K broken systems might continue to work sufficiently until Dec 31, 1999 simply because they are still working with 20th century dates.

As a programmer, I don't agree with what is being said about the 9/9/99 date. In the database this is stored as 990909 if the date format is YYMMDD and as 090999 if the format is MMDDYY. My experience shows that in those cases where 9's are used to specify the end of the data the date field is ALL 9's as in 999999. If the logic is looking for 999999 it won't trip up on 090999 or 990909. I think the other programmers on this site will back me up on this.

So, these are some of the reasons I think we could easily slide through at least the first half of 99 ( excuse me, 1999 ) with little rise in awareness. The general population is going to need some God awful event, some unrefutable evidence that Y2K is going to burn them before they do anything about it. Of course, it's too late by then.

You can include me in that 1% you mentioned. I plan on working remotely ( telecommunicate ) during most of 1999. I live a semi-rural lifestyle now and am looking forward to the real thing raising emus ( not the Euopean kind, the Austrailian ) . This is something I was planning even before Y2K grew from a nasty alligator to a multi-headed fire breathing dragon so it's easier for me to do than most folks. I am most fortunate in that respect.

Old Soldier: What event in late 1998 or early 1999 do you feel is going to cause people to start building up reserves of cash? The only thing I can see is a possible stock market crash and then they won't have any to build up. I think it is a real possibility that we could slide by some of the "spike" dates that have been identified. In fact, Murphy's Law almost demands it. The worst possible thing to happen in 1999 is for everything to go smoothly computer-wise so everyone can point after the spike dates and say, "See, no big deal." Howsomeever, real things will begin to happen after the big date, of that I have no doubt.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 01:24 - ID#20137)
Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 01:04
Silverthorn__A ( ( A.Goose - *FROZEN*? ) ID#247309:

"FROZEN" - Just my way of trying to focus attention on NO CHANGE in gold stocks since march 16th. Paper gold is flying while actual stocks move NOT.

Eligible stocks went from 156,258 on March 11th
to 156,258 on March 12th
to 156,258 on March 13th
to 156,258 on March 16th
to 245,742 on March 17th
to 245,742 on March 18th

to 245,742 on March 24th

I have only been watching the eligible stocks for a month, so someone else will have to speak up on whether this lack of movement is meaningful during this time period. Goodnight.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 01:45 - ID#255151)
fundaMETAList @ 01:19

Are you saying it wouldn't hurt to have a stash of paper dollars tucked away with one's Gold and silver? Sounds like a good idea to me. Maybe there'll be a mad dash from "electronic money" into the actual physical paper itself, eh?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 01:47 - ID#57232)
Hillary may try to get executive priveledge - logging off
All: This will cause some commotion -- Nixon tried to do this for associates. Hillary was described as 'Czarina' by someone.

Loaded windows 95 -- up and running - mostly.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 01:52 - ID#339265)
...and then I must go to bed.

As forum posters are well aware, the hallmarks of goldbugs are their keen knowledge of world events...their above average education in terms of finance and macro and micro general, they are cynics who have learned to avoid taking facts at face value; they subject all alleged facts to analysis and examination until the Truth is ascertained.

Unfortunately, some of these forementioned traits are not conducive to making money in today's markets.

The average mutual fund investor today does not look at the news more than once or twice a week...his education about world affairs is somewhere around the junior high school level. Essentially, his sum total education of the financial markets is equal to whatever his financial advisor told him prior to cashing his deposit.

Thus, when negative world events occur, is it any wonder that the average mutual fund investor does not react in panic? Since he neither reads nor listens to the news, he must learn about events through word of mouth. Then, when he places a phone call to his professor ( aka financial advisor ) to learn more about the negative news event, the professor spins
the news in the most optimistic manner. Why should the average investor doubt his money manager? After all, the manager embodies the sum total of the investor's education about financial markets...and if he has been invested for the past several years, then the professor has provided him a hell of a nice return on investment. Such success validates the professor's opinions on life.

On the other hand, goldbugs make a habit of keeping up on world affairs and usually access multiple sources of information about various developments. If a central bank announces that it is selling X number of tons of gold, then most goldbugs are aware of this event by the time the news hits the streets.

It is the goldbug's attention to the news...their lack of obliviousness...that is really their undoing where investing is concerned. Knowledge leads to fear. Ignorance is bliss.

It well behooves the goldbug to develop more of the complete indifference and lack of comprehension that the average Joe Public brings to the picture. In doing so, the goldbug will be far less likely to panic at the revelation of negative events. In fact, like the mutual fund investor, he will develop the great ability "not to react."

Just shorts peppering the commodities markets with all kinds of horror stories about Central Banks dumping gold...nightmarish tales of gold holding nothing more than mythical value....and all of the
anti-gold propaganda all for naught because the goldbugs are down at the beach with the kids...or they're dancing at the neighborhood nightclub...their newspaper subscriptions cancelled...their internet access shut down...and their CNN, CNBC and all other TV news channels terminated because they only watch TV sitcoms now.

If the goldbugs are not listening to the bad news, then does the bad news really exist? And if the bad news does not exist, then how can it scare them?

It's time for goldbugs to turn the tables on the oblivious bull crowd and adopt the same kind of indifference to the negative news that affects goldbug financial interests!!


(Wed Mar 25 1998 01:58 - ID#341214)
Auric: Cash
Auric: I feel good about having the silver and gold on hand. I'm starting to think about the cash thing. On the face of it, having cash sounds smart because many people might not be comfortable dealing with the PM's. On the flip side, what if I had a cache of cash but no one would honor it. Apparently, in a recent issue of Dr Gary North's Remant Review he became a bigger booster of cash and less so of PM's. I'm hoping to get my hands on a copy soon to review his reasoning.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 02:05 - ID#255151)
Donald, Bill Buckler, D.A. or Any Kitco Persons

What are the current figures for M3 vs. actual paper dollars that exist? I am wondering if the physical paper itself is as leveraged as physical Gold is.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 02:11 - ID#57232)
Couldn't resist one last post!
All: So -- is the 'big bang' on April 1 going to be a bust, as Vronsky says? Logically, I would say Vronsky is right, because the 'flight to safety' might very well be to the US markets.

But -- the Japanese ( who unfortunately do not post on Kitco ) do things collectively. I would guess that most of their assets will move into Japanese or SEAsian markets -- because that is what they are being asked to do.

I still wonder whether we are actually interpreting the Japanese news correctly -- perhaps the flurry of bankruptcies in Japan reflects the bottom for Japan. The Japanese never do anything unless it is signed, sealed and delivered -- rather than the more impulsive Western approach. We must never forget how much money the average Japanese has saved, relative to the average westerner -- despite the real estate and market bubbles. And -- the Japanese yen does not need to be weak for their profits to be high. All they need to do is own factories in other ( much cheaper ) SEAsian countries -- hopefully functional ones. However, I do admit there is no evidence that the Japanese are rolling in cash to bail out other SEAsian countries.

So my vote is for the 'big bang' to be a non-event in Japan.

I think the real threat to world stability from that part of the world will come from North Korea, India or China.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 02:16 - ID#330175) friend------------------------April gold down .70 @299.20
sounds good

John Disney__A
(Wed Mar 25 1998 02:21 - ID#24135)
Thank you for your contribution but I feel nauseous
For Cavender..
I suggest that if you wish to intervene when
Tutzis fight Hutu you got ahead and do it. They'll
have you @ss for lunch.
Your confusion of the tribal names with the
goofy Archbishop elegantly displays your knowledge
on this issue.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 02:27 - ID#399119)
All, RE: Y2K + elec. power grid problems
,one who should know, can be accessed at THE CLOCK IS TICKING! but most of the GDP ( generally dumb public ) refuses' to hear it. I've been lurking for a number of weeks now and I wish to say that the calibre of the participatory parties opinions, the insight, knowlege, and wisdom is impressive. Aside from some very understandable ( in the human-nature department ) bickering and a few mean-spirited posts that really don't contribute much, I am getting to like and respect quite a few of the "netizens" ( please forgive the term, I guess it is the appropriate nominclature ) who post here, and I hope I can contribute in a positive way and do my bit toward fomenting Liberty, Self Reliance and Truth. They say that in bad times there are two types of prepared people; those who've put aside gold, and those who've put aside guns, leading to the ones with the guns soon having both! ( kinda like governments ) IMHO its best to have plenty of both and the will to defend yourself and loved ones. GET PREPARED!

(Wed Mar 25 1998 02:37 - ID#330175)
@ the end
G'night all.......

(Wed Mar 25 1998 02:37 - ID#335184)
Farfel the magnificent & other prescient elders
What do the Beardstown Ladies, Mickey Mouse & Abbie Joseph Cohen of Goldman's Ransack have in common? A bogus way to review earnings!
At year's end, Abbie said the bull would run & valuations were no problem because earnings would be in robust double digets. This week she is revising her Dow preditions for FY 98 from 8700 to 9300 while revising earnings forcast down to 8%.
Martin Biggs of Morgan stanly, ( the sane side of Morgan Stanly ) let the cat out of the bag last week in a well documentd BARRON'S article that informed us that the S&P earnings were materially & consistently overstated. This week BARRON'S nailed Michael Eisner's Disney with blatant Accounting Mickey Mouse sleight of hand in connection with improper GAAP Accounting principles applied to the CAP/CITIES/ABC acquisition resulting in inflation of FY 97 earnings from 10% to 25% & the Dec Quarter from ZERO TO 18% ! Biggs believes these practices are endemic in the S&P, witness the tricks that Coke employs year in and year out to do the same thing. Apparently a prime benefit to the merger mania must be the myriad opprotunities afforded to manipulate the earnings line & thereby mask structural & systemic weaknesses. And Wallstreet says Asia is not tranparent!
So this levitation act known as the Bull US stock Market is riding on a wave of non-existent earnings! My My !
But the fix is in for the long ride. I believe that the Clintoistas, R. Rubin, of Goldman Sucks Your LIFE, are force feeding the stock market with the M3 accellerator while A Greenspan is helpless to apply the brake with out "CPI" type evidence that inflation is any where in sight ( don't mention the groping bloated monster Bull bleeding from the mouth as inflation animated ! ) . They must also believe that the Japanese big bang and the Easter Bunny will bring that bigger fool to the punch bowl that the big girls will need to make a graceful & hasty exit for the powder room. MY guess is a blow off top between April 15 & May 1 and then retracement to the hell of anybody's guess, say Dow 6000 & then US $ collapses, as AU sky rockets in the face of a slow vicious Secular Bear Equities Market with narrly pointed teeth to a trading range from 2500 to 3500.


(Wed Mar 25 1998 02:48 - ID#240142)
Big Bang
Didn't see this posted so sorry if it's a re-read. Big Bang in commosities for the japanese is apparently in full awing. Would that include Metals, one might ask?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 02:55 - ID#255151)
Good Night

Webtv shuts down for 3 hours soon. I have an absolutely AWESOME set of links on Y2K, Gold, El Nino, and economic data sources that I got saved and instanstly accessible. I have an e-mail set up that you can request these links if interested. Go Gold!

(Wed Mar 25 1998 02:56 - ID#341214)
HardGuy2: Welcome
HardGuy2: We have both in this house but need more of the gold stuff. I fell into this site about 18 months ago and it was love at first site. I can't say enough about all the fine people that post here, people that are willing to take the time to educate us in many ways. Bart, the guy that is responsible for the site, is an Angel of Mercy to Gold Bugs. So welcome and I hope you enjoy your stay.

The power grid. After the people, it's the single most important asset in our society yet we have no idea what is going to happen to it come Jan 1, 2000 and after. Assume the worst, hope for the best.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 03:01 - ID#341214)
Auric: It's not your URL lists we lust after...
It's your e-mail address! Night.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 03:12 - ID#22956)
surf? beer? Calif? Plat? Limes? in that order?
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhh! kitco-at-nite. I missed all the good talk. oh dear....where are the mates? It's your turn!
I think those who were not paying attention ought to re-read Lime-Boys post regarding Pl...... ( severe and soon ) ...or something like that. Perhaps it would be prudent to take heed.
OK. I'll repost it:
"Only in platinum am I convinced that the move will be soon
and severe and up". Lime-Boy
Be good boy scouts............uh huh.
Cherokee - good to hear of your journeys through my stomping grounds. Perhaps during one of your trips we can meet up. Snow, surf and smoke signals........gotta love it. Perhaps a get together in Vegas, where a small scattering of us ( kitco-ites ) can scare up some good times. I know you go there regularly. We can talk Ted and Irvine-Boy into it. We'll have a pow-wow of sorts before hitting the tables.....complete with samplings of all the local flavor.....seriously.
Ted - My roulette system is a good one. You must try it. You have the bank what of the brass ones?
go gold. load up on more PL.....I must fund the Vegas trip.

robnoel, I must agree with the lime thing. Limes were made for Herraduras. mmmmmmmmmm good.

John Disney__A
(Wed Mar 25 1998 03:13 - ID#24135)
Pickles work very well
For Brother Oris
Packo pickles working better than prickly pears on
gold forecasts. However what would you say to a
palladium price of 360$. Is this impossible?? RSA
doesn't produce much.. its mostly a Russian drama.

- to Brother Oris and anybody else. I asked a swiss
guy last night to explain the effect of the "formula"
for the European central Bank on Gold surplus/deficit.
He said that all the European CB involved had 12000
tons, and that the new Euro BIGBANK would need 4000
tons unber the "formula". But he doesnt know if this
means that all Europe stays at 12000 with 4000 in
new bank and 8000 in national CB ( at reduced levels )
OR 4000 tons is extra demand and total Europe rises
to 16000 ton OR 4000 tons is all they need, and the
national Banks dump their 8000 tons on the market.
I also mentioned that nobody uses gold to "protect"
their currency anyway. The "Euro" defender Bank would
use the yen and $ it holds to do that.. If euro weakens,
then it sells $ or yen and buys euro. If euro
strenthens .. no problem .. it just buys $ or yen
and sells euros. I think gold should be seen as
needed in national emergency.. when nobody wants
euros at ALL.
He seemed to lose concentration and rang off.

Bill Buckler
(Wed Mar 25 1998 03:20 - ID#256381)
M3 vs Paper Dollars
Auric: No one seems to know the exact amount of paper Dollars in existence. I have seen estimates of cash circulating outside the U.S. of as high as $250 Billion. I would guess that the ratio between M3 and cash circulating is in the order of between 8 and 10 to 1.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 03:24 - ID#266105)
@local beat

Published in tonight's local newspaper with no source reference--

Oregon's 15 fastest growing jobs:

Semiconductor processors
Home health aides
Computer scientists
Social welfare assistance aids
Data base administrators
Keno writers
Blackjack dealers
Cleaning/building service workers
Casino key persons
Gaming workers
Craps dealers
Casino cage cashiers
Casino currency counting clerks

Top 15 declining occupations:

Central office frame wirers
Peripheral edp equipment operators
Central office operators
Data keyers: composing machine
Job printers
Billing and calculating machine operators
Computer operators
Wood sawing machine setters
Statement clerks
Electrocardiograph technicians
Central office pbx installers/repairers
Telegraph and teletype operators
Switchboard operators
Paste-up workers
Transit clerks

(Wed Mar 25 1998 03:50 - ID#255151)

I can only send one URL at a time from my Big Screen TV. Much as I would like, I can't send the entire URLs at once. I can send an AWESOME link to a more specific topic such as "Y2K and the IRS", for example. Webtv shuts down in 10 minutes. Go Gold!

(Wed Mar 25 1998 03:53 - ID#335184)
Always a Frenzy at the Top!
All blow off tops include buying panic driven off the top by foreign money & a variety of securities fraud froth !
Buyer beware !!!


(Wed Mar 25 1998 04:07 - ID#266105)

Then that would preclude this being a top for
reasons of foreign buying. The sales of US of A
domestic equities and securities by Japanese companies,
financial institutions and funds to raise capital
in light of difficult straits-- is demonstrated
and quantified of recent.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 04:13 - ID#228283)
@newtron and all...

Is there really going to be an end to this stupid stock market? If it continues to "confound the pro's''. What are we, chopped liver?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 04:16 - ID#228283)
Opps.. sorry...


(Wed Mar 25 1998 04:20 - ID#228283)
I'LL get it right yet...go gold!!!

Just got up and not awake,excuse.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 04:45 - ID#266105)

Hyundai did drop their auto pricing in India 30% some
months back. The Arab prince scooped up $150M worth of Hyundai Motors.
Hyundai currently making run at bankrupt/in government receivership
Kia Motors. Unfriendly takeover. One would think that the entire production capability of Hyundai Motors will not be finding freindly
reception domestically in Korea nor anywhere in Asia anytime soon.
Sending buku Hyundais ( recently expanded assembly lines just before
collapse ) to American and European shores exclusively.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 05:35 - ID#286279)
Good morning Ersel
Remember what happened to a fan on someone's desk in "Airplane"? I about did the other thing in my pants, I laughed so hard. They don't and can't make movies like that anymore. Good night. ;-D

(Wed Mar 25 1998 05:50 - ID#238295)
According to Veneroso, we can expect more CB sales announcements -- probably by the Dutch and Portugese -- in the weeks ahead. Some confusion on whether these sales will end in April. Germans and French want an April termination, but British want to allow sales through year-end. But gold will play a much bigger role in EMU reserves than the bears think.

Bullion dealers now much less bearish on the yellow and hedge funds starting to cover short positions. Producer hedging -- which picked up a lot during the final quarter of 1997 -- also easing. Massive Asian liquidation winding down.

He still expect POG to recover all its 1997 losses by year-end. But I got the impression he doesn't expect much upward movement until the EMU announces its gold reserve policies in May.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 06:16 - ID#26793)
Japanese Big Bang seen helping commodity funds

(Wed Mar 25 1998 06:21 - ID#26793)
Rothschild sees opportunity in Korea (now that IMF money is flowing in

(Wed Mar 25 1998 06:23 - ID#26793)
Students riot in Indonesia again

(Wed Mar 25 1998 06:26 - ID#26793)
Oil prices decline for second day

(Wed Mar 25 1998 06:29 - ID#26793)
Japanese seem unable to boost stocks over 18,000 level

(Wed Mar 25 1998 06:33 - ID#26793)
Japanese land prices in 7th year of double digit declines.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 06:36 - ID#26793)
Tajik rebels kill 20 Russian troops, hold 180 hostage

(Wed Mar 25 1998 06:38 - ID#26793)
Russian Communists demanding a role in newly forming government.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 06:41 - ID#26793)
Russia will have no part in oil production cutbacks

(Wed Mar 25 1998 06:47 - ID#185448)
Some things to consider
EMU participants are burdened with high debts. Maastricht asks for either less than 60% of GDP or "a downward trend" ( from any given figure ) . Italy runs 120%, Belgium 131%. They are only in because of the "downward trend" ( hehe ) . Today is the day, when EU announces the report, which nation fulfill Maastricht and are thus accepted as participants in the EMU. As posted several weeks ago - anything but accepting all eleven candidates would be a harsh surprise ( and de facto the signal that the project EURO has been cancelled ) . Nothing like that will happen, as implementation of EMU&EURO has allready been a fact. Furthermore, as the action in recent weeks can be interpretated - Greece is likely to be accepted too ( maybe from EURO-beginning ) despite chronical not fulfilling of Maastricht. The UK, Sweden and Denmark are out as of their own will. Dont be surprised, if one or another joins EMU in the last minute ( my personal bet: UK ) .

Some reasons to back the EURO with everything available including grandmothers wedding-ring:

1. Once implemented, the European Community faces some problems that are kept under the carpet so far. As there was no consensus re. punishments, if a nation will not be able to fulfill the criteria in the years to come, one can guess, what is likely to happen: Increased public spending to get conjuncture/unemployment-rates under control. This has to be accomplished with an increased supply of money ( IMO ) - which could water down the EURO and make it vulnerable against speculative attacks.

2. EMU-participants are an inhomogenous collection of different economic structures. As it is impossible to let one participant fall out of the system or abolish the entire system of EMU, it has to be guaranteed that the negative impacts caused by differences in prosperity and economic power are kept at a minimum rate.

3. The declared next step of the EC is the expansion towards the eastern parts of europe. Poland, the Czech Republik, Hungary and Slowenia are the next possible candidates to join the EC and ( maybe a little later ) the EMU. They altogether are lightyears away from fulfilling Maastricht-criteria. ( Poland for instance would approximately need 15 years of double digit GDP-growth at reasonable inflation to reach todays wealth of an average western european nation ) . But a united europe, based on political and financial stability is a major goal of the EC, and somehow the bill has to be paid.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 07:15 - ID#365216)
Well said on your previous post. Be prepared for Y2K including
gold, guns, and survival supplies. Like I've said before, it
does no harm at all to prepare ( your goods will always have
intrinsic value ) but if you just have some electronics bits in
a bank computer somewhere or no means to protect your hard assets,
you are "banking" on no problems at all which is not a good bet.
In days where teenagers are mass murderers ( Jonesboro, Arkansas ) ,
natural disasters hitting all the time ( 11 dead in GA from
tornadoes ) , trucker strikes, etc., do you really think things
will just "work out" because you have escaped calamity so far?

BE PREPARED!! See various websites such as the one HARDGUY@
mentioned and gary north's y2k links.

Hardguy, if you would like to talk more, please leave your email.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 07:28 - ID#286199)
EMU begins with 11 countries

The European Commission, the EU's executive body, tapped Austria,
Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the
Netherlands, Portugal and Spain as having met the criteria to join the
single currency, called the euro, on Jan. 1. It would be one of the most
important economic events in postwar Europe.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 07:44 - ID#289357)
Islamic Mint coins are FOR SALE !!

(Wed Mar 25 1998 07:49 - ID#217338)
Internet commo trading:
Silverthorn: I and many others trade 6 & 7 figure commo accounts every day with buy and sell orders via the internet.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 07:54 - ID#26793)
Gold Institute expects mine closings to continue for three or four years.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 08:08 - ID#28594)
Silverbaron --You DON'T Give Up!
Kudos! {:- ) )

(Wed Mar 25 1998 08:21 - ID#224149)
Mike Sheller I have had a frustrating time verifying this date plus many other dates regarding the Comex .I usually work two days a week and this is one of them. Away for more Titanic

(Wed Mar 25 1998 08:27 - ID#316256)
Hello, everyone. have new job just testing to see if I can post

(Wed Mar 25 1998 08:28 - ID#289357)

I guess it's hard to be a gold ( silver ) bug these days without being tenacious.......Trying hard to push these guys ( Islamic Mint ) into using Kitco as a distributor.......we'll see.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 08:40 - ID#358318)
Next time you email the new Dinar people, do you think it would be worth mentioning to them that it would be a good idea for them to post a list of distribution centres on their web page where people could obtain the coins, in person, or by post etc.?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 08:41 - ID#289357)
ALL @ Islamic Mint Coins

If anyone on the forum thinks the idea in my previous post is a good one ( for gold and for Kitco ) , please send a note to that effect to Mr. Vadillo at


(Wed Mar 25 1998 08:46 - ID#289357)
It's my understanding that the distribution of the coins is still to be worked out. Please feel free to contact them with any ideas you may have. The more inputs from Kitco, the merrier.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 08:54 - ID#28594)
How to debase a currency? "Let me count the ways...."
The Economic Times, India Wed Mar 25 1998
Heading for Hawaii? Pack a dollar card
Nidhi Nath Srinivas
"PLANNING a holiday abroad this summer? Forget the boring travellers
cheques and passe company credit cards. Instead, flaunt your own personal
dollar cards, which are now the RAGE WORLDWIDE."

(Wed Mar 25 1998 09:05 - ID#36156)
Doesn't look good for HOMESTAKE...

(Wed Mar 25 1998 09:05 - ID#342282)
A. Goose re Comex data this am
Where do you get your GC J8 volume? I'm having trouble from CBS Marketdata. For what I' doing it would be nice to get each sesion complete. Many thanx, Charlie

(Wed Mar 25 1998 09:12 - ID#20137)
Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 09:05
chas ( A. Goose re Comex data this am ) ID#342282:

Data comes from futuresource

(Wed Mar 25 1998 09:16 - ID#28594)
Poor, trapped Japanese--all they do is 'EXPORT' & 'MAKE MONEY'...woe is thee...
Japan Times, Wed Mar 25, 1998
Auto exports to Europe on the rise

"Japan's auto exports to the European Union in 1998 are likely to total 1,167,000 units, up 13.2 percent from the 1997 figure, though a marginal rise of 2 percent is expected in overall auto demand for the union, the Ministry of International Trade and Industry said Wednesday"

(Wed Mar 25 1998 09:32 - ID#401460)
Thanks for the URL
I have been looking for a lumber Chart



(Wed Mar 25 1998 09:36 - ID#28594)
April 1st is beginning to assume 'mythic' proporations!
Dnya, Wed Mar 25 1998
Instanbul, Turkey

"TIR" Crisis with Russia
Russian Customs Committee has decided to bring important limitations to border trade. Starting on April 1, it will be prohibited to bring
several categories of goods by TIR licences. Deputy Foreign Trade Undersecretary Ustn Gven said that they had discussed the matter
with the Russian Counsalate in Ankara and asked that the decision is postponed.

Chambers Become "Ombudsman" [Dinar battle]
Ministry of industry and trade has given the authority of "ombudsman" to TOBB, TESK and TZOB, Union of Chambers of Trade and Commodity Exchanges, Confederation of Tradesmen and Craftsmen and Union of Chambers of Agriculture, respectively. The three NGO's will act as mediators between the citizens and the government. The protocole was signed yesterday with a ceremony.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Mar 25 1998 09:37 - ID#287367)
Anyone who has read any of my posts knows I have been buying stock market puts and buying gold for the past 18 months or so, anticipating the demise of the stock bull. I recently have stepped back and tried to be objective about these admittedly emotional markets in which I have a considerable investment in money and ego. Although I still believe gold is seriously undervalued and the stock market is ludicrously overvalued, after observing the behavior of these markets from the perspective of my study and understanding of mass psychology, patterns of price behavior, and market dynamics; I have come to the remarkable conclusion that we are at not the end, but the BEGINNING of the stock market blow-off. I forsee a huge rally in bond futures to 130 or higher, the dollar index to at least 110, and the S&P 500 to ( perhaps ) 1500 before it's over. What does this mean for gold and silver? No progress is possible for gold in the near term. Having spent the past 18 years in a trading range between $300 and $500 and now having decisively broken DOWN out of this range, every time we approach $300 we can expect selling from disgusted and disappointed investors. On the other hand, drastically lower prices are not ahead for gold; we could stay between $240 and $300 for awhile. For silver I see a prolonged wide trading range between $4.00 and $8.00; there should be opportunities for trading and scalping profits. The paper markets will eventually be thoroughly discredited. From the rubble of the subsequent collapse/desolation, metals will register in the collective consciousness of the "sophisticated" people of the western world and begin a new age of respect for work, integrity, value, and freedom.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 09:38 - ID#210163)
EMU and gold
NOw that all of the countries have been accepted to the emu doesnt this mean that we dont have to worry about distressed gold sales to fix up the balance sheets of poor countries to help those countries make it in the emu. It seems like we are over the hump with that fear because everyone made it and what is the hurry to sell gold now? Please let me know if I am off base. bye

(Wed Mar 25 1998 09:39 - ID#342282)
A Goose
Thank you. I think I'll join

(Wed Mar 25 1998 09:39 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Interesting. I think I'm detecting some initial signs of a breakdown in the dollar and signs of an upward breakout in the yen. Both currently of the very short term variety, until/unless further moves prove otherwise.
If this really proves to be the case, then there should then be some more upside to the gold. Even as I write this, 'conditions' continue.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 09:46 - ID#286230)
Crystal Ball

I am not sure that this is the beginning of the blow off of stocks but I can't see it as the end. With regard to gold it will rise as the little guy begins to get interested and starts buying the 1, 2 5 and 10 oz pieces. It will be the Little guys who get stuck holding the stuff after if declines as well. Of course if you believe in the world coming to an end as we know it then other signs are more important.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 09:46 - ID#330175)
Why'd the sun hafta be out today

(Wed Mar 25 1998 09:55 - ID#411259)
..... PL up .....

Gotta' love that Dow.
Platinum is still cheap.
Gold is in a coma
Silver is a duplicitous fornicator.


(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:01 - ID#401460)
Home Sales

+8.7% Existing Home Sales
Durable Goods Feb-1.7% BUT Jan rerv UP
Let her Rip


(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:02 - ID#28594)
That's a negative then, on silver? {:- ) )

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:04 - ID#401460)
Follow the Money


30 Yr has turned negative.


(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:07 - ID#28594)
Euro-sceptics? good heavens!
ECOFIN--York, UK--last weekend
Chancellor says EMU will mean "new chapter in world history"
Imminent decisions on the single currency and the enlargement of the
European Union would amount to "a new chapter in world history",
Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown said.

Mr Brown said he was proposing "a third way, a new European way which
allows us to combine support for enterprise with our enduring commitment to social cohesion and fairness".

But, as Mr Brown launched the meeting, there was the drone of an aeroplane in the background as anti-EMU protesters displayed their message across the skies of York. The plane was towing a banner bearing the words: "No euro, save the pound."

In the city centre there were a string of protest events organised as a late bid by Euro-sceptics to head off EMU, preparations for which should be nailed in place by May 3.

Whenever a politician mouths the word "fairness", hold on to your
wallet. Better yet, hide it. {:- ) bbl

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:09 - ID#410194)
Gold & Silver news
The overnight action showed European buying which is what should be expected if the Italy inspired Gold news is to be believed.

In another story overnight, it appears Merrill Lynch ( them again ) is throwing water on the idea that ECB are not forced to hold Gold reserves under the Maastricht Treaty and that their Gold sales could remain "unhindered". The ability by Central Bank sales should never be argued with but one still has to wonder what judgement suggests that unloading long term assets at such low levels is prudent.

So if the Central Banks sales threat continue, Gold will have an even bigger uphill battle than can be won by the current open interest.

A decline in Silver stocks and 164 deliveries should normally support prices.

One point of interest for some: the open interest has declined once again all the way down to 84,900 contracts from the February high of 113,903 contracts which means a significant amount of specs have left the market.

The new power cell technology seems to be forgotten by the market place for now probably because of the cost factor.

Breakouts beyond "599" or "651" could be significant once again.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:09 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Hmmmm. Could be worse. Could be rainin'. Gold showing green numbers. XAU showing green numbers. There's still hope for the 'cause'.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:11 - ID#28594)
Euro-sceptics? good heavens!
ECOFIN--York, UK--last weekend
Chancellor says EMU will mean "new chapter in world history"
Imminent decisions on the single currency and the enlargement of the
European Union would amount to "a new chapter in world history",
Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown said.

Mr Brown said he was proposing "a third way, a new European way which
allows us to combine support for enterprise with our enduring commitment to social cohesion and fairness".

But, as Mr Brown launched the meeting, there was the drone of an aeroplane in the background as anti-EMU protesters displayed their message across the skies of York. The plane was towing a banner bearing the words: "No euro, save the pound."

In the city centre there were a string of protest events organised as a late bid by Euro-sceptics to head off EMU, preparations for which should be nailed in place by May 3.

Whenever a politician mouths the word "fairness", hold on to your
wallet. Better yet, hide it. {:- ) bbl

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:12 - ID#324266)
Crystal Ball
You could be right if the y2k problem does not materialize; and please note that most of the writers pushing the y2k problem have a vested interest is scaring everyone.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:15 - ID#411259)
..... Back to the Office .....

I would more accurately describe my views on silver as ambivalent. Looks as if we will retest $6. Yes?

Robnoel -
E-mail me, would you?

Hep -
Thanks for the Ballard Link. Haven't had time to review it yet, but I think the deal I was referencing is something new??? I'm still not sure. I'll dig up the info. The news came off of WSJ interactive, and I think it was dated 3/6/98. If anybody here has access to WSJ interactive, please see if you can get the fuel cell article.

Grinding Lad -
More Rain, Aye? Didn't you guys loose a couple of cops who drove into a river near you during the last set of storms?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:15 - ID#31868)
Realistic - Merrill Lynch is a paper pusher plain and simple
I received a call from some clown worried about my metals investments. Not my regular broker, one of his boss's - I fired back one simple question - Would you please supply me with a written statement that Merril Lynch is Y2K compliant and if not, please put same in writing.

Needless to say the call ended quickly. To date I have never heard a peep and never received anything in writing related to Y2K.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:15 - ID#401460)

$300.30 CNBC


(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:16 - ID#57232)
Japan, Windows 95
SDRer: I think more and more we underestimate the Japanese. They have the best of both worlds, earnings wise. They have a strong currency so they can buy bargain factories ( companies ) in SEAsia, and they can sell the goods based in that cheap foreign currency. Hence their balance of trade will be even more favorable this year than last -- with cheap goods heading our way.

What I meant about 'Big Bang' being a non-event is that the Japanese markets will not crash due to Japanese investors pulling out of Japanese markets, although there may be some rearrangements. What I did not think of is that the Japanese love platinum jewelry, and may be enticed to buy more gold with their assets ( other commodities, too -- right D.A.? ) . Some Japanese got burned years ago with gold buying programs set up by Japanese banks, but I think that will be ignored. The average Japanese is much more asset conscious than the average Westerner -- I would do the same if I saw 1/3 of the world's economy go belly up right next door. Old Gold has repeatedly stated that a recovering or stable SEAsia would be good for precious metals ( I agree - commodities included ) .

I do not think Japan will trigger a world crisis, given that their balance of trade will probably be comparable to mainland China. I would guess that the US trade balance will be staggeringly negative this year, given the Japan and China situation. Just imagine what our balance of trade will be like if China devalues 25%.

SDRer, All: Windows 95. First - made tape backup of entire hard disk. Then bought Peter Norton's book on programming windows 95 -- excellent technical detail -- better that any other Win 95 book - because most are written by software people. PN is equally conversant in HW and SW, and he writes very well. PN says Win 95 is more backward compatibile than NT and WFW -- even for DOS programs. You will need PN's book to handle the inevitable screwup where the Install 'Wizard' acts very unwizardlike. Upgraded last night with a Quarterdeck partitioning program thinking that was the safest way, and crashed my computer anyway. Nearly destroyed my hard disks -- they apparently could not be low level formatted. Finally mostly up and running about 2AM.

Here is what I suggest: Install the Windows 95 ungrade, but set it up on a separate partition from the original software ( WFW or ? ) . PN says somewhere that you will automatically have access to old and new systems anyway. I did it the hard way and used OEM W95. Fortunately I had a tape backup for everything - still alot of work ahead manually retrofitting programs I want. Only problem was a hardwired modem that hung up a PNP modem. Will probably have to remove the hardwired modem until the PNP modem is properly installed. Then hard wire it to a different port, address, interrupt. By the way, make sure you have all the W95 drivers for your hardware before you proceed -- or you will not be pleased.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:16 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Yen going up. The 'almighty' buck now breaking.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:19 - ID#22956)
signs of an upward breakout??!?
Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 09:39

Eldorado ( @the scene ) ID#213265:

Interesting. I think I'm detecting some initial signs of a breakdown in the dollar and

signs of an upward breakout in the yen. Both currently of the very short term variety,

until/unless further moves prove otherwise.


99 ticks???! That equates to a LARGE breakout to me ( $1,200 per ) .....

hM! I agree this will be short term so I am 'capping' my long and taking profit ( uhhuh ) and putting in another short right now. I love a two-day nicely profitable trade. Thanks Donald!!!!!! yu da man! Although this was an EASY one. Patterns and well placed I said it ain't about funnymentals anymore.......

Yahoo! Go en!! ( Mark? ) ...... ( hello?? )'s your turn.

Damn I love a good breakout in the morn.......!! ( $ ) count the duckets ( $ )


(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:20 - ID#31868)
ForkLift - re: writers having vested interest in scaring on Y2K
I would put to you that Ed Yourdon is living very comfortably without penny one from his new book on the above topic. I would say that he has a very sincere conviction about the subject matter in his book.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:23 - ID#401460)

My God man! Buy a Mac!

All you have to do is plug it in and turn it on.


(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:24 - ID#20137)

Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 09:32
HighRise ( A.Goose ) ID#401460:
Thanks for the URL
I have been looking for a lumber Chart

Well, it certainly broke the more recent down trend line. Thanks for pointing that out.

A liquidity driven market. Now let's see, that means ... that there is so much money that stocks in Europe and N.A. go up because people can't find enough places to put there money. So prices don't matter anynore. The higher stocks go, we know they will go higher because they will be MORE money printed.

Call me old fashion, but LIQUIDITY driven sounds SCARY to me.

Interesting Times
(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:25 - ID#423355)
Y2K (Forklift)
True, some writers and consultants profit from purveying the Y2K message, but for our purposes this isn't important. What is important is the real extent of impact. It is quite possible that the self-interest of these writers and the truth might lie in the same direction.
As a software developer, I can attest that the programming task posed by Y2K is immense. Estimates of the number of lines of COBOL in use range upwards from 80 billion ( a number appropriate to this forum ) . Some of this code has been unchanged for so long that the source code is gone, and only the executable machine code remains. Don't think they teach you how to read machine code in school anymore...
Another side of the problem is 'embedded' processors, with mini operating systems burned into the chips. It is unclear how many of these ubiquitous devices have date dependency problems.
For a pretty good Y2K overview, see Ed Yourdon's site at
Thanks, I.T.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:30 - ID#213265)
@the scene
EB -- Yup. Things were changing as I was writing that post. Barely had any numbers on the yen at the time, but with that initial gap at the open. I was mostly concentrating on something I saw in the dollar chart which otherwise appeared rather inert.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:33 - ID#330175)
Nova Scotia politics----this is ridiculous.....but predictable

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:35 - ID#210163)
EMU and hard money choices
If you are of the hard money choices try out this scenario. YOu can either put your money into the new EMU that includes countries who already have violated the entrance requirements or you can buy the dollar or gold. If you buy the dollar I think you are making a big mistake.The beauty of living in the US like I do is we dont have to be fiscally responsible as long as we are the reserve currency. Lets face we print money and the world has to take it and we get our cake and eat it too. If the EMU ( and it will ) becomes another world currency they will obviously want to be as reckless with the EMU as we are with the dollar but countries will link to it as well. That then means the US will have to be more fiscally responsible. That aint gonna happen soon. So what are you left with. STuff that is of the physical nature. Fill in the blanks and short the dollar.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:36 - ID#210163)
Does anybody know how you get out of the EMU if you want to? HOw do you get out of this as a country if you dont like it?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:36 - ID#28593)
The key to the executive washroom...
Banks set for accord to cut credit risks
FT 8/21/96

European and Japanese banks are poised to slash billions of dollars from the credit risks they run up with each othr in the $6,000bn cross-border deposit market.

What the agreement says is that if I lend you 100mn in sterling, and you lend me 100mn in yen, we are even., explained one London banker closely involved with drafting the accord, which was launched yesterday by the British Bankers Association.

QUESTION: When the necessity arises to USE this accord, which banker we still have the key to the executive washroom? The sterling banker? or the yen banker?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:36 - ID#255151)

Yes, Ed Yourdon actually had most of the text to his book available for viewing and downloading a few months ago. Once the book was published, he had to discontinue this. My question--If someone has that text stored in a file, can they distribute it for free? Or is that now covered by copyright? It was totally legal to do so prior to its publication.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:38 - ID#225273)
xau5 & union

I have an idea that the EMU will turn out like Lincoln's union: you sign your way in, you fight your way out.

The Preacher

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:40 - ID#28593)
TRIPOLAR CURRENCY....(1).....(2).....(3)
"...therefore an urgent need ... to ensure that the transition to a TRIPOLAR CURRENCY system proceeds with... international coordination to minimize instability in the exchange and capital markets..."

USD ( ? ) ; Euro ( for sure ) and..Asian Currency Unit...or..SDR

Interesting Times
(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:48 - ID#423355)
Yourdon book (auric)
My guess is that the contents of "Time Bomb 2000" may not be distributed now that it has been published under copyright. You could probably excerpt it, though... "As Yourdon points out..." followed by a few hundred words.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:50 - ID#28593)
A. Goose--Comex "FROZEN" as in "not moving"?
We can buy all the gold at Comex for $74mn...
But there may not be ANY gold at Comex?
They are moving it from one stack to the other
And back again?
Comex as Jason and this is the Golden Fleece par excellence?

Out to the garden. Really bbml this stime

The Hermit
(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:51 - ID#374232)
@ Allen(USA) - Making it Clear
Your post of Mar 24 22:15. Holding solid gold and silver, cash and food, free and clear. AMEN TO THAT! Thank you.

The Hermit

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:53 - ID#31868)
Auric - Hmmmmmmmm
I would say that you could not distribute those pages. But to his credit
( and I believe a family member, his daughter helped write the book ) that they have a constant series of updates for readers that come up with new ideas and problems as they pop up.

They have been forthright from the start and continue to be so. The web site is indicative of their open an honest, and helpful style as writers and to their credit as human beings. Once you link to the page you can go in and read many discussions ( individual comments from readers and such ) and ideas which are part of an ongoing dialogue that serves to help inform people.

I view the Yourdon's as people that are trying their best to prepare people, not scare nor intimidate. Jolly good people there in my opinion.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 10:53 - ID#251166)
Re. Escapism / ANOTHER / Dow Bulls / Euro / Titanic / Sluts Endeared / Violins
It strikes me that us newbie little guys probably have little reason to be prowling about the likes of Kitco. Many of us are long on the yellow stuff and ought to take the advice to bury our stuff and forget it. But the novelty of actually "investing" -- along with the financial outlay we make to take our stand -- can't be easily dismissed. We have a tendency to think that just because we've opened our eyes to what's going on that everyone else should be seeing it too. Of course, it doesn't work that way. So, for lack of relatable company, we hang out with guys who've taken the same stand and seek reassurance of our decision.

I've read most of ANOTHER's posts, as well as many of yours. What so enchants me, and maybe others, about ANOTHER's posts is that he presents a fantastic -- derived of *fantasy* -- view of gold. I enjoy thinking that what ANOTHER says might be true, just as I enjoyed daydreaming as a kid. It was escapist then; and, not discounting ANOTHER's interpretation of past and current events, his delightful conclusions stimulate escapism now, IMHO.

Goldbugs have been through -- are going through -- malaise, especially agitated by the success enjoyed by the Dow bulls. "The sky is falling," we shout in our termite voices. It's all been heard before; Dow bulls "know" this time it's different. We harbor our hopes of vindication in ANOTHER scenarios. "You'll see then!" A one-day two-percent rise and we holler "It's here." The bull rages forward without acknowledging our "fundamentals."

As the violinist in *Titanic* said to the other musicians as the ship sank, "Gentlemen, it's been a privilege playing with you." Then he went on playing, alone. And the others rejoined him. And the ship went down. But the music was beautiful.

ANOTHER's interest last night in your/our/Allen's view of the Euro struck me as vested and sinister; it recast my view of his reasons for all he's said from cameraderie to sales. Impressionable? Yes, I am. Gullible? More than I'd admit to myself. But if you're old fashioned and still believe you ought to leave the dance with the date you came with, then the dollar, weak and pimply and flighty as it is, still stands to enable all that we hold dear in this financially slutty nation. *Our* slut, America.

"Ma'am, it's been a privilege playing with you. . . ."

Thanks for reading. I'll go back to lurking now.


Dean Jones

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:05 - ID#401460)


Several people ( Chessy & ChasAbar__A ) were helpful last night, here is an update on what I found.

Pegasas Gold is not traded on the NASDAQ it is listed but not traded. Your broker will have to go through the Montreal exchange, where it is trading @ US $0.48 and Canadian $0.60 approxamately.


(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:05 - ID#255151)
Deutschmark Question

Looks like Germany is going to give up the D-Mark. Seems a shame to destroy a currency that has served them and Europe so well for the last 50 years. What happens to the value of physical D-Marks after May, 1999? Will the paper D-Marks be worth anything?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:09 - ID#333127)
Russians must have found more plat. and pall.

Strad Master
(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:10 - ID#250297)
A question and a recommendation
ALL: It's been awhile since I've posted. Been busy with lots of stuff. Two things:
1. ) Since we're back to the discussion of Y2K, Gary North recommends taking out substantial amounts of cash denominated in ones and fives with the idea that when the banking system collapses due to Y2K the government won't be able to increase the supply of $1 and $5 and deflation will hit. Consequently, those bills will increase in value between 30% and 700% tax free, since it is a buying power increase. Also he recommends periodically buying $500 boxes of clad quarters. Does this make sense to any of you Y2K experts out there?
2. ) Go out and get last week's "New Republic" and read the cover article on Alan Greenspan and the cult of brokers who worship at his sainted feet. It's a fascinating and illuminating piece. If there is a God who dislikes and punishes idol worship, Wall Street is in for a big drubbing! ( :- ) )

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:11 - ID#339265)
...the same oblivious mutual fund investors will turn with amazing wrath upon their financial advisors. They will rush back from the beaches...from the nightclubs...from the various distractions in life...and rage like neanderthals against the brokers they feel betrayed them.

Then, they will strike out against the politicians that allowed the over-speculation to build in the markets. There will be rioting in the streets...with powerful political and corporate leaders strung up right in the streets, left dying upon street lamps. Ethnic frustrations will rage and minorities targeted.

Indonesia is a mere, subtle preview to what will transpire in this country. At least in Indonesia, the people there are accustomed to being treated like dirt by their politicians and corporate bosses. Here, it is different.

In America, with all its delusions of mass equality, the sudden losses incurred by the public will be overwhelming.

Think of the rage that will explode....

"But you guaranteed I would receive at least 25% a year!!!"

"Hey, you never told me my entire stash was at risk...and hell, I'd need a magnifying glass to read this small print warning me of the hell with you, you F___king weenie, I'll come over and rape and kill your entire family for what you've done to me!"

"You lied... you lied!!!"

It is a tragedy that the overspeculation in the markets is not simply allowed by the American is actively encouraged.

At some point, when a first hand crisis that cannot be denied arrives in America, the dollar, Dow, Nasdaq, and bond markets will tumble hard. It will mark the end of American hegemony in the will mark the beginning of the darkest chapter in American history.

Can the pepetrators of this mass financial hysteria be stopped before it is too late?


(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:11 - ID#57232)
EMU meets in York University -- Why England?
SDRer: I wonder why -- could it be because of that Gold related American ( NBER ) and British ( XXX? ) economic symposium at York Univ in 1990 or 1991? I have the book for this meeting, as I have said before. Much of it was about how much gold that one needs to cushion fluctuations in a currency, and how to go back on a gold standard. One key point was that the only way to do it was secretly, and announce what was done after it was done. Unfortunately the York economic symposium book is filled with economist-type math formuas, and does not specify about how much gold each economic entity would need to stabilize its currency. I would be glad to converse with an economist about this -- because math is one of my strong suits. Together we might figure out what EURO gold reserves the academic economists think they ought to be. Of course, there will be a trade off between what the economists think is reasonable, and what the politicians do.

Interesting -- I wonder how far away the LBMA is from York. Does anyone know if England or the US is buying gold? England will probably not be want to be left out of any new ballgames. If I were a UK central banker with access to the LBMA, I might have a private concern buy gold for me, and stash it somewhere -- so that it is not in the books -- until the right moment comes.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:11 - ID#345176)
@ Allen / Hermit

Mr. Allen ( USA ) re: Mar 24, 22:15
Mr. Hermit re: Mar 25, 10:51

What good will be food when someone has to live among those who die from starvation? Will you be able to stand to see little children dying while your food hoards keep you alive? I think living under those circumstances will be worse than not living at all. If this is the scenario of mankind, I rather be dead.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:12 - ID#324266)
tolerant1, Interesting Times
I'm familiar with the works of E. Yourdon and G. North, and to a point, have done my homework and acted upon it. The truth is somewhere in the middle as the problem is not clearly defined. The computer network in North America may be the most complicated thing humans have ever devised, but it is flexible and capable of taking some mighty hits. The potential is there for the government to get smaller or a lot bigger. Opportunities for people of merit may also be forthcoming. I know that this is a real issue for my family and business to face, but I'm looking forward to dealing with it in its time.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:16 - ID#317193)

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:20 - ID#345176)
@ Farfel

Noone blamed the financial advisors in 1987, or in 1991 in Japan. Everyone will put his tail between his legs and keep quite. I think you overstate the public reaction. Besides that, they will blame the crash to some other world event.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:20 - ID#298259)
I am able to trade PSGQF on the OTC BB through E*Trade.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:20 - ID#244242)
Answer: It won't. Too late. Human Nature strikes again.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:21 - ID#22956)
Ted!! Don!! Monex-Chap!!
That is Willy scratching at the git out there and do your 7 mile walk......EH!! He ain't gonna like it that you were out partying all night and don't have any time for him!! Some master, open ALL the drapes and let the sun SHINE in.

oh yeah.....go gold.

Monex - Yes, they have since fixed the road only to have ANOTHER storm come and knock it out........ ( w/w ) . Thanks for knocking plat down a little. I needed to p/u some more. Perhaps a wait for retracement is in order ( the gap at 395ish? ) Now cover your limes.... ( can I say that in public? ) . And thanks dude. Vegas and scantily clad nubiles?? Summer?? ( ohmy?! )

Donald, how many times is your 'nose-for-news' gonna pull through for me?? Can I buy you a cold one?? A nice cup-o-coffee? A vacation in the Carribean?..... ( wait a second, I am getting a little carried....... )

AWAY!!! ( $ ) !


(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:22 - ID#244242)
@farfel again
I mean it won't stop.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:22 - ID#372400)
Farfel comment on DOW crash, etc.
The American hegemony is not based on stock market or dollar -- it the industial power -- that is reflected in stocks, bonds and dollars -- that
makes America much more flexible to survive crisises of the future, is it not?

Bob M
(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:26 - ID#26059)
Stocks will not go into a true bear market for at least another 10 years. AG and the boys have got the game under control..expevct stocks to at least double from here..the real stock blowoff is yet to come...when the US is challenged militarily by a greater force, then the game will end..until that threat is visible, forget gold and buy equities you will be making money rather than losing only does well in times of military conflict, just as in the late 70s, inflation was there but the real reason metals excelled was the Russina threat to invade the Middle East and the Iranian war 3 was not that far away at that time,,gold will not turn in a major way, until a war is imminent..

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:28 - ID#255151)

I think it would be a good idea to have some cash along with Gold and silver. One caution with respect to cash. If you try to get your hands on more than $10,000 of YOUR money in a single year, then you must report it to the Government. You might also be required to explain its purpose, and even have to prove you were not using it illegally. In theory, you should be OK if it's less than $10,000. I wonder what Thomas Jefferson would think of this Fourth Amendment issue, eh? ( good to have you posting again )

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:29 - ID#7568)

The gold and silver markets are pretty quiet today. Our Swiss friends are still the featured sellers and are trying to cap the market at $300. The recovery in the oil price is helping gold. It is interesting to note that there was also a kind of 'cap' at $295. When that was broken, it was taken out quickly. For the gold market not to have given back any of its gains from Monday's rally is a sign of strength. Its been a very long time since we have seen any good rally that did not fade almost immediately. Just hanging in at these prices is a strong positive.

In silver, the lending market is having a direct effect on spot prices. There is someone advertising the roll of a fair sized long position out a few months and this is putting pressure on the lease rate. In the current environment, the lease rate bears directly on the price. If lease rates decline enough to put the market into contango then there is the fear of producer selling. Since the producers lack physical metal, the only way they can sell is to borrow metal, sell it now, and repay with future mined and refined metal. As long as the lease rates are high the producers have little incentive to presell. Silver is vulnerable until such time as this long position is rolled or sold. Something should happen over the next day or so. If the price has not declined over the next 24 - 48 hours we should see a resumption of the rally. Given the nature of the rallies we have seen in the last week or so, it is likely to be very fast. There's probably not a good way to trade this event from a short term perspective. By the time one sees that the things are going higher it will probably be too late, the same may well be true in the other direction.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:31 - ID#289357)
Strad Master

AG won't be there for them to worship ( or hate ) when Y2K hits. He be gone in the fall of '99 ( term expires ) . Impeccable timing, yes?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:32 - ID#345176)
@ Auric on cash

Even less than $10,000 in cash if it is found on your car or your pocket is subject to confiscation. Remember Florida and the woman who was going to pay off her mortgage? The police took the cash and is gone.

Remember gentlemen, Gestapo is alive in the land of the "free".

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:33 - ID#324266)
farfel: puh-leez
Here, it is different. The politicians and bosses have been underestimating the people for so long that they aren't even aware that North America is filled with people of merit who will fight like demons to do what is right.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:37 - ID#345176)
@ AUric on cash

By the way, $100 dollar bills during a crash become worthless. Nobody with change will be around! Need dimes and quarters!

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:40 - ID#22956)
crazy talk
With all due respect Allen ( USA ) . I think the wine was talking for you yesterday. Your picture of hell and damnation has been painted before. Do you really believe that *stuff*? C'mon man! Snap out of it! Are you starting a following?? Should we go long Nike ( reference to heaven's gate ) ?............


Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 10:51

The Hermit ( @ Allen ( USA ) - Making it Clear ) ID#374232:

Your post of Mar 24 22:15. Holding solid gold and silver, cash and food, free and

clear. AMEN TO THAT! Thank you.


if it comes down to it gold will not be too valuable in theses times. Foodstuffs will be of MUCH greater value. The barter system will reign king. My wheat for your apples, etc. Gold?? Hungry people will laugh. Can't eat it, can't grow it, can't do anything with it. ask 'clone' ( another kitco kop ) for permission to post off topic stuff

 ( scratchinhishead...again ) 

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:42 - ID#330175)
EB.....@ draggin myself out the door(ughhhh)---can't stand Willy staring @ MOI
any longer~~~~this will be a painful walk....*go Gold*

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:43 - ID#31868)
Dear Bob M - some friendly advice
Buy gold and silver, physical, bullion and junk.

It is my contention that your thinking is totally incorrect.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:43 - ID#339265)
@MYRMIDON...the "crashes" of '87 & '91 involved a much smaller segment of the American, we have the largest percentage of the American public involved in the markets in the country's history...thus, there are great many more poorly educated Americans who have risked significant portions of their savings. They will not react nicely when the bubble pops.

@BOB M....what makes you imagine that "AG and the boys" will be in power 10 years down the road? I don't think so...continuous rumors in the media of AG's imminent retirement...Clinton and his cabinet will not be around much longer. War as the cause of the crash? I doubt will likely be some kind of ostensibly meaningless event occurring in a climate of apprehension...such as a large institutional sell order program that hits the market which nobody chooses to buy...or something equally banal. War would alert too many "little guys" to bail out...and one inviolate axiom of investing is this: the little guy, in the long term, is always wrong.

@THOMAS...America and its industrial power? When most of its manufacturing is now performed overseas...when it has transformed itself into an information and service economy? Are you talking about the same America I am speaking of?


(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:44 - ID#330175)
'The End' is near~~~~~~

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:47 - ID#255151)

Is Gold possession subject to reporting laws? Let's say I buy $15,000 worth of golden eagle coins by a cashier's check. Do I have to report that Gold? I would certainly have to report a $15,000 cash withdrawal.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:51 - ID#372400)
Farfel: Is it the same America
America is huge -- so we might be speaking of different aspects of it.
Japanese makes a lot of car making in US, chip companies are moving factories to US, food is grown in US, there is capability to start manufacturing on the US ground if it is needed ( know history of World War II? ) If it comes to vital intersets, US has strong military to defend national interest in any place, where manufacturing capacities are, has it not?

Bob M
(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:55 - ID#26059)
Gold is not money(perception)
How many people do you know ( other than gold bugs and survivalists ) that have any clue on gold or silver being used as an exchange vehicle? The majority does not have a clue on how to value a pre64 silver coin and its trade value. If there is a crash, cash would be knig..why? because that is what people are used to trading, they understand it...for gold and silver to be used as a trade unit, a massive overhaul of the American public would be neccessary, and its hard to teach an old horse, new tricks..even in the 1870s in the hayday of silver dollars, everyone except a few western states, hated them, they preferred paper..over 100 years it has been that way...dont ignore the supply and demand factor..stocks will continue to reise until something better comes along..and it is hard to beat a 15% annual return...rather then losing 15% on gold..hang it up is worthless as a monetary metal at this time

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:57 - ID#345176)
@ Auric

A cash withdrawal is not reported by you but by the bank if it is in excess of $10,000.

If you move $20,000 out of the country, in any form ( cash, jewelry, money orders send abroad ) then you have to notify the treasury department.

If you can provide proof of purchase, your coins will be OK ( not confiscated ) .

As the government departments aquire bigger and better computers, expect the $10,000 cash withdrawal to be reduced to $5,000. The bank will notify the treasury department without you knowing.

Remember, this is the land of the "free" and all the government wants is your "protection" !!!!

(Wed Mar 25 1998 11:58 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother John,
I'm currently a little bit busy, will be happy
to speculate in regard to your last post to me in a few
Very Busy Brother Oris

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:01 - ID#342376)
need some advice on buying coins....
Just got a brochure from Jefferson Coin and Bullion. They've got Swiss Helvetias and French roosters for about 65 each. Any comments?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:04 - ID#31868)
farfel - agree with your thinking
However I think it would be important to specify more directly that the major disruptions will occur in the larger metropolitan areas and medium sized cities. No question this coming period in America's history will be riddled with mayhem and social horrors. The rural areas will be less affected, large and medium cities and urban outskirts will suffer greatly.

One fascinating aperture into the rage will be viewed at the epicenter of the lies, the District of Columbia. Truly, there will be days of rioting there and nothing will stop it, nothing. The people will not be mad on that day, they will have gone mad.

In addition, look to see how many of our beloved government officials celebrate New Years 1999 there, the exodus shall be hypocrisy at its zenith.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:04 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Bob M -- Perhaps only the survivalist types will still be around after the fact, everyone else having starved or been robbed and killed. It's not as if BIG trouble can't happen should the 'lights' go out.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:06 - ID#345176)
@ Auric

No, you don't have to report the buying of gold coins because the government already knows. There is a paper trail of the cheque you wrote in your bank, the coin company's account, their books, the clearing house, etc. It is traceable and the government knows.

So much for privacy! Here all the credit agencies know so much about you and you think you will pass ingognito from the government?

That is why I have debated the issue with gold coins, bullion etc. Someone knows or someone will know when you sell. So, if it is not a secret your purchase ( or sale ) , you might as well trade the stocks, have more leverage and added liquidity.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:07 - ID#57232)
The British want gold 'sales' till Jan 1999?
Old Gold,SDRer: The plot thickens, doesn't it? Could there be a reason that one of the countries with the least amount of gold ( UK ) wants gold sales to continue till 1/1/99? Perhaps the Brits still do not have enough gold stashed away to compete with the EURO gold 'hoarders'. Isn't it odd that the european countries with the most gold are calling the shots? Where did we hear that before?

So -- the UK does not have all of the gold that they want, or they don't want to sell US dollars, just yet. My suspicion is that if the continental europeans decide that it is time for gold to go back up, England will have little say in the matter.

I have another point that may be important. The US is basking in the role of the world's reserve currency. If the EURO launch is to have any credibility at all, a major sale pitch must be made about how much better it is than the US dollar. Since the european economies are still weak, the EURO sales pitch will not be easy. So anything goes -- even talking about 30% backing by gold,IMHO Gold will become a featured asset to have in Europe, at least till the EURO is well-launched. Just like that new restaurant down the street, the ( EURO ) service will be first rate, for a while at least.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:11 - ID#31868)
Myrmidon - hold the phone
You can purchase coins in cash. No reporting, plus you get a receipt. The only people that know are you and the seller. Simple. Confidential.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:13 - ID#288295)
The French and Swiss coins you are talking about have about $56 each in gold in them, and I'm told dealer cost is $61, so spread is fairly narrow. Jefferson quoted them to me for $63-64 last week. They are similar to Sovereigns, in that they are considered semi-numismatic, and quite common. My advice would be to buy the French 20 FRF 'Rooster' coin, as it appears to have a high relief, and is really a beautiful coin in BU condition. I have seen these offered in excess of $110 in BU at coin shows recently, so the current price is a real deal for a coin 90+ years old.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:15 - ID#410198)
BobM,I guess you got lost, this is not paper mullets disscussion page,

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:17 - ID#339265)
WHO CARES ABOUT THE BRITISH OR THE SWISS? (COROLLARY TO MY 01:52) per my 01:52, goldbugs are better off paying NO attention whatsoever to fundamental announcements regarding the metal. In this vein, we would likely see a gold bull market equivalent in power to the current Dow and Nasdaq phenomenon.

The current Dow/Nasdaq bull market is powered by the complete and sheer indifference of the American investing public to any and all negative fundamental events.

Goldbugs should adopt a similar strategy of indifference to negative announcements about the metal propagated by gold shorts.


(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:17 - ID#31868)
Dear Bob M - Are you and Internet Postit Comic Clown?
Is this how you earn a living, you're killin me. This is fabulous humor and I must say Bart did not tell me he had hired a clown to lighten things up around here.

Oh how I love a good gag. Aghhhhhhhhhhh, Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ( knee slap here ) you're just killin me.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:18 - ID#339265)
WHO CARES ABOUT THE BRITISH OR THE SWISS? (COROLLARY TO MY 01:52) per my 01:52, goldbugs are better off paying NO attention whatsoever to fundamental announcements regarding the metal. In this vein, we would likely see a gold bull market equivalent in power to the current Dow and Nasdaq phenomenon.

The current Dow/Nasdaq bull market is powered by the complete and sheer indifference of the American investing public to any and all negative fundamental events.

Goldbugs should adopt a similar strategy of indifference to negative announcements about the metal propagated by gold shorts.


(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:19 - ID#238295)
DA: Appreciate your posts from the front lines so to speak. Agree that gold's ability to hold its recent gains is very impressive.

I warned recently that Ted Arnold and Andy Smith would issues bearish prognostications after the recent gold rally. So do not be surprised and do not take them seriously. Their day is done. The fact that gold is better today despite Merrill Lynch's bearish views shows the real nitty gritty.

Bob M: If you really believe Dow will go up 15% annually forever you are beyond redemption. Our best and still bullish stock market prognosticator ( OLDMAN ) expects it will end with perhaps the worst bear in history.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:19 - ID#345176)
@ tolerant1

This is true when you buy. But when one sells unless this is done in small quantities ( less than $5,000 ) in a coin shop, or with special arrangements for them to pay you in cash then everyone will know.

Nevertheless, it is an alternative if done in small quantities.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:20 - ID#57232)
The end is near?
Ted, EB: Is it going to be a direct hit by an Asteroid? If the world ends, gold and hideaways won't be of much use, will they? My personal take on y2k is that most US stuff will be y2k compliant. The government, inefficient that it is may not. The big problem will be outside the US - Europe, South America, etc. That will be the source of most of the turmoil. I like the idea of our markets requiring that all firms that trade on the US markets be certified ysk compliant. There must be teeth in something like this. But -- please don't forget that the European markets are bigger than the US -- a european collapse could still make a major dent in the North American markets, IMHO.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:25 - ID#238295)
Lots of adds from Blanchard pushing gold coin investment on the History Channel. This kind of thing will multiply tenfold when the gold bull gets underway big time.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:37 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Looks to me that if May silver breaks below 6.25 again, it should see 6.10.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:40 - ID#373403)
30% gold reserves for the Euro
What if America were to compete on the gold reserves. 30% of $5 trillion in M3 money supply would require $1.5 Trillion in gold. This would be 2.5 Billion ounces of gold at $600/oz. Is there 2.5 Billion ounces of gold to be had? I guess the U.S. Treasury had better try to scuttle the Euro.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:43 - ID#26793)
Sorry to hear about your breakout. Those things usually clear up as you get older.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:48 - ID#26793)
Any merchant who receives $10,000 in cash from an individual is required to report that event to the IRS on a special form. I think it is a total of $10,000 during a year. Applies to coins, cars, home, boat anything.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:50 - ID#257136)
Thomas-your 11:51: I suggest you do a little research in regard to the current state of our military
You may discover that we cannot protect any thing or any body for a prolonged period.
vix, Bosnia, somalia,south Korea.

Perhaps you did not know that the much bragged on "reduction in size of federal gbmnt" is due to the horrendous downsizing of our military.
Nearly 30%.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:52 - ID#31868)
Donald_A - True enough
Go to different retailers. Simple, clean, legal and veeeeeeeeeeery, veeeeeeeeeeeeery quiet.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:52 - ID#31868)
Donald_A - True enough
Go to different retailers. Simple, clean, legal and veeeeeeeeeeery, veeeeeeeeeeeeery quiet.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:54 - ID#39971)
Through The Looking Glass--Into The Smokey Mirror
Gold And Liberty------- ( Written April 1995 )

What does the U.S. dollar's recent sinking illness mean for your long-term financial health? Our dollar

recently hit record lows against the Japanese yen, the Deutsche mark, and the Swiss franc. The Mexican

peso and some other third-world currencies fell even faster. Nevertheless, even the "strong" currencies

now have only a small fraction of their former purchasing power.

No matter what country may have issued it, paper money never has retained its value. Rising and falling

relative to other currencies like elevators on the Titanic, paper currencies nevertheless sink with the ship.

How can you avoid the money machinations of desperate governments? In the end, gold has been the

only enduring money; spendthrift nations return to gold-based money when their world "credit" dries up.

Politicians can manipulate the value of your paper money only as long as you believe in mere paper

"I.O.U. nothings." To keep you from the facts about gold, politicians and the media have kept most

discussions about it from you. An entire generation knows little or nothing about the store-of-value role

that gold has played throughout history.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 12:56 - ID#19366)
Prof. Dornbusch on Japan

In Tokyo, everybody is waiting for "Big Bang". They might be in for a surprise, big bang might be the collapse of the Japanese economy rather than a new age of competitive finance. Surely the greatest paradox today is that one of the richest countries in the world, Japan, is flirting with bankruptcy. Its banks are being downgraded, its budget deficit is alarmingly large, its debt is huge and if the unfunded pension liabilities are included, reaches levels of above 200 percent of GDP. One might even say at in financial terms, Indonesia looks good compared to Japan. The Japanese say their plight is not real: threat work hard, they are better educated than anyone else, they have technology, they are the lenders to the whole world  how can they be bust? All that could have been said of the Us in 1929 when President Hoover and the Federal Reserve pursued deeply misconceived policies that plunged the US and the world into the Great Depression.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:01 - ID#410198)
To all,reporting ...bad news guys....Internal Revenue Code Sec.60501
acts as a supplement to a prior existing record keeping transaction for financial institutions found in 31 CFR part 103.
Essentially,Sec. 6050-1 provides that any person engaged in a trade or busness who receives $10,000.00 or more in cash in one transaction or two or more related transactions is required to file a return with the Secretary of the Treasury
Example ( 1 ) .A person has a tacit agreement with a gold dealer to purchase $36,000.00 in gold bullion.The $36,000.00 purchase represents a single transaction under paragraph ( c ) ( 3 ) ( i ) of this section and the reporting requirements of this section cannot be avoided by recasting the single sales transaction into 4 separate $9,000.00 sales transactions
In a nut shell you can run but can't hide,in some States this law has a reporting requirment of $5,000.00,if as a dealer I recieve $10 grand in cash I have to fill out a form when I deposit it at the bank,just because we are paranoid does not mean they are not watching

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:01 - ID#26793)
Interesting stuff about the Euro.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:02 - ID#347235)
@ AJ
You are so right, what was happening to the military is why I retired before I really had to or wanted to.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:27 - ID#246224)
Friend EB (think - 'a breakdown in synergy')
Recent news:

1 ) Fed is/will be printing cash to meet any "bank problems that might arise due to Y2K". Per conversation between Sen. Bennet ( R-Utah ) and AG. ( Can you say "Bank Runs"? )

2 ) Chair of Pres Committee on Y2K to start discussions of contingency plans with state and coounty governements. ( Can you say "Marshall Law"? )

3 ) Australia publicly saying "there is no way we can meet the deadline..must immediately set up contingency plans.."

4 ) State of New York has chartered Concorde for 15 Dec 1999 to fly programmers from Britian to USA to work TILL ALL PROBLEMS ARE RESOLVED. Contract pay $5,000 per day per person. ( Can you say "What?!?!?" )

5 ) Britain expecting approxiamtely 35 to 40% of its manufacturing to fail. ( Can you say "Spare parts?" )

6 ) FAA flight control system will be inoperable. ( Can you say "Shut down?" )

7 ) Telecommunications companies only now starting to ASSESS their systems. ( Can you say "No dial tone"?

8 ) Recent IT Y2K conference speaker, major vendor, "only 5% of those we are consulting for have BEGUN to actually change code". ( Can you say "Don't worry, we are on schedule"? )

EB, go up to the mountains tonight and look down on the San Diego/LA area ( that's where you are right? ) . What do you see? Millions of people, lights, etc. Your entire urban environment is supported in its present state of peace, tranquility and prosperity by information and distrubution systems which are completely unique and utterly vulnerable to Y2K. Remember LA when the King trial sparked the riots? Now look out again on this vista. Imagine it all burning before your eyes. All because of 2 digits instead of 4. Imagine New York and Chicago and Philly. This will happen EVERYWHERE there is a city that depends on computer technology to maintain its present form and activities.

I am not trying to foment a panic or start a cult. The reality of the situation is that we will not be prepared even if the problems are moderate. Lack of preparation in addition to panics caused by a realization of the lack of preparation will do more harm to us than most of the immediate effects of computers dropping dead.

The biggest problem is the disruption of something we can call 'synergy'. When a system breaks down in one place then resources are directed to that one place to repair or circumvent it. This can be akin to a person having a broken arm. Painful, needs attention. Alot of resources taken to develop a treatment. Takes time to repair. After effects from atrophy, etc.

But when a person is in a car wreck and suffers 'multi-trauma' we are dealing with a *qualitatively* different problem: multi-system failure. Lungs, Blood Pressure, Kidneys, many broken bones, head injury, bleeding, shock, etc. There is an emergency protocol for dealing with this. Its called TRIAG. The synergy of the person is at risk. Once synergy between the parts fails then you have death. One could look at the victim and say "but there are so many parts that are still in pretty good shape" or "each injury by itself is not that bad" but you would be wrong.

Consider the North Ridge earthquake. North Ridge was broken but there was alot of resources close at hand which could rush to the area to begin to repair the damage. The Y2K problem is that THERE WILL BE NO UNEFFECTED AREAS. Think about this. The equivalent of an earthquake EVERYWHERE AT THE SAME TIME ALL OVER THE WORLD.

Who ya gonna call, baby?

Consider the 'effeciency' we have created in almost all of our economy. Almost all sectors are 'tuned' to our present environment to do the most with the least in the cheapest and fastest way possible. If one part convulses it immediately causes people to search for ways to 'work around' the 'problem' area. This sudden surge in demand on other components of the 'system' causes the other services to become overloaded almost instantaneously. Think about the UPS stike and the Western/Mid-Western rail fiasco ( currently in process ) .

Who ya gonna call? Where ya gonna go?

Now, let me ask you a question. If its possible that these things could happen even to a moderate degree, then why aren't you dealing with it by making preparations and plans? At the worsest you will have settled the issue from you rmind and have no worries if it comes. At the most you might be embarrased by your prudence. But what if you don't plan and this thing rips your guts out? Rational risk management says; 'look at the worst and plan for it according to the propbabilities you access'. And 'keep reassessing the probabilities with new information'.

On a weekly basis the news is filtering in that this is not going to be a nice time. As I see these news items and evaluate their accuracy and impact I adjust my plans. My plans have been steadily adjusted toward the worst case scenario. When that occures I post my concerns here.

We are about to experience a head on collision with a brick wall. We will have multi trauma and we will be in danger of being thrown backward from between 50 and 75 years in terms of the practise of our economy. We have virtually no manual systems to fall back on.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:28 - ID#256254)
Does anyone know if and when Questor and Tyler Rose got their comex gold?

If anyone knows them, maybe you could ask them and post their respond.

Thanks in advance.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:33 - ID#410198)
Re: robnoel__A (To all,reporting....Internal Revenue Code Sec.60501) ID#410198:
Does those transactions mean 1 transaction broken into 4 parts, or does it mean an total over a period of time? If so, what is the time. i.e., could this be done as 4 transactions of $9,000 each over a 4 month period of time, each independant of the other, which then escapes the reporting?

Just wondering...

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:35 - ID#289357)
A. Goose
Maybe it's time to give a sanity check to the static elligible reserves at COMEX. Do we know anyone who plans to take a delivery soon? If so, we could see if it shows up in the statistics. Something smells pretty fishy to me about those numbers the last few weeks.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:37 - ID#289357)

Who cares? Beat the reporting system by spreading your purchases between several dealers, and you won't have to worry about it.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:38 - ID#345176)
@ all

I am serious guys:

Is Kitco Y2Y compliant? Can we post then and get our quotes? If not lets get some Short Wave radios!

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:41 - ID#410198)
Midwestern,12 month reporting requirement, the clock starts on the first
.first transaction,the really bad news,Rubin trying to expand reporting on all transactions over $500.00 ( not a miss type )

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:43 - ID#410198)
silverbaron,better you say it than me

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:44 - ID#26669)
two cents worth of opinion about gold reporting
My two cents worth is that I always buy gold with either a personal check or a credit card with money easily traceable to the post-tax dollars I put in my account from my legal occupation. And I can back up every assertion of wealth with a long paper trail.

I might remind everyone that part of the problem with the US government is that it tends to steal assets from its citizens based on loose interpretations of laws originally meant to reduce organized crime and drug importation. A prevalant legal theory is that any wealth which can't be proven to come from legal channels comes instead from illegal ones. Sure I realize that philosophy is 'ex post facto' and 'without due process', but you've got to realize that the US government of 1998 is more like the German than US government of 1939. IMHO

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:45 - ID#345176)
@ Silverbaron

The problem comes when trying to sell. And if at that time gold becomes illegal, even if you try to sell a small quantity which gets reported, the FED Gestapo will be in your house door looking for the rest...

How liquid is really the physical? I don't think that people have thought about it in detail as they haven't thought the Y2K problem.

Allen ( USA ) brought up some really good points in his last post.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:46 - ID#339265)
The solution is very simple.

Here is the mantra:

Anti-gold info: the British are selling all their gold.
Goldbug Response: Who cares...I'm buying more.

Anti-gold info: the Euro will not be supported by once ounce of gold.
Goldbug Response: Who cares...I'm buying more.

Anti-gold info: gold is a mere commodity with mythical value.
Goldbug Response: Who cares....I'm buying more.

Anti-gold info: there is more gold in one cubic foot of seawater than
all the underground gold reserves in the world.
Goldbug Response: Who cares...I'm buying more.

Anti-gold info: the American dollar is as good as gold, ergo the real
thing is no longer necessary.
Goldbug Response: Who cares... I'm buying more.

Anti-gold info: the central banks have decided to replace their gold reserves with semiconductor chip reserves.
Goldbug Response: Who cares...I'm buying more.

The bottom line is this....if goldbugs were to become as fearless as Dow/Nasdaq investors, then more and more of the latter group would hop on board the goldbug express. A raging gold bull would develop in no time at all. Again, I cannot begin to stress the importance of perception where valuations in today's markets are concerned.

So, to all goldbugs out there, just keep repeating the mantra....



(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:48 - ID#345176)
@ Silverbaron

Possesing gold during a crash will the equivalent of possesing URANIUM now. However, NO URANIUM MINE HAS BEEN YET CONFISCATED.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:49 - ID#410198)
Myrmidon,sell for what more FRN's,does the word barter come to mind

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:49 - ID#31868)
Robbin Rubin is a sc_mbag of the highest order. Plain and simple. He is a slick's slickster and when the lies are layed open for all to see I am sure he will be out of the country or in front of a commitee with a small jar on the dais to house his testicles.

After reading what Janet Reno considers to be a subversive I am surprised she has not arrested the whole crew at the Whitehouse, but I think we are all seeing her true colors in the past 6 years. Her title should be changed to Attorney Complicitor.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:49 - ID#342282)
Silverbaron re Roosters
How about emailing me some details on them and a source. Will get back after I hear from you. Thanx

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:52 - ID#57232)
Rudiger DornBusch on Japan
All: If Rudiger Dornbusch thinks Japan is flirting with bankrupcy, that is a serious matter indeed. I retract my rosy statements about Japan. If Japan does go down, our precious gold investments may again see the deflationary effects of a retesting of the gold lows. This is bad news indeed for us little goldbugs if RD is right.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:54 - ID#401460)

Ultimately, the zloty and the tolar, the forint and the lei could go the way of the markka, the punt and the escudo -- giving way to the euro as legal tender from the Baltic to the Black Sea, and a reserve currency in central banks of the world.

Did you catch this comment?
"and a reserve currency in central banks of the world."


Spud Master
(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:55 - ID#273112)
@Silverbaron & A.Goose ... COMEX shell game...
Hillary & I believe that the reason we haven't heard
from TylerRose or Questor on delivery of their
COMEX gold bars is that COMEX officals got to them
( get it, a vast right-wing gold conspiracy ) .

It probably went like this:

"Rosey, Questor, we can do this two ways - yous
can have a lot of cash, more than yous paid for this
lousy metal stuff, and just keep, like, quiteish ...

or yous can have yous gold - in bullet
form. All you'll gotta do is digga it outa yous back, chest
and head. Whatsit gonna be?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:57 - ID#31868)
223 - well stated - do it legal and have paper to ram down their
throats. You can do this quietly or loudly, but it matters not if done to the letter of the law, which I think, key word,THINK still has meaning and merit in the US.

It would seem our leaders feel they are above the law and the people are no more than cattle to put out to pasture and then recall at will to the corral.

The tide does appear to be changing though, as I have stated the silent majority of decent, hard working Americans is starting to lose their patience with the District of Columbia. One of these days the FEDERAL government is going to be in a world of trouble.

I have zero doubt in stating that. Absolute zero.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:57 - ID#256254)
Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 13:55
Spud Master ( @Silverbaron & A.Goose ... COMEX shell game... ) ID#273112:

Spudmaster works for me. I don't want any of that comex gold!!!

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:58 - ID#26793)
Rumor of Japanese intervention to support the yen

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:58 - ID#432148)
tolerant1 ur 13:49
Couldn't agree with you more. We have the most unethical immoral

(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:58 - ID#401460)

Rubin's Company Goldman Sachs reported record earnings yesterday - no wonder they are running the whole show.

Did you see were our Ambassador to Japan, Mondale, now also works for Goldman Sachs.


(Wed Mar 25 1998 13:59 - ID#432148)
tolerant1 cont.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:01 - ID#368244)
Gold stocks

If gold stocks are an indicator, look out below.

Spud Master
(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:02 - ID#273112)
@Myrmidon & Uranium
Myrmidon, old boy, there is nothing illegal about possesing elemental Uranium. Alpha will be happy to sell you small amounts at an exorbitant price.

No doubt, plenty of misinformed, chickens-with-heads-chopped-off Greens/Enviro-types are out there now fainting at the thought of a private citizen having deadly heavy metals. Never mind there's more mercury in the average US citizen's teeth than in the deadly, bad, bad, awful, terrifying, dinosaur-killing 30 parts per billion lead in some East Dallas soil.


(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:05 - ID#410198)
tolerant1,gov worst nitemare beside me being on the air for 3 hours a day
.is the coming together of both left and right over MAI

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:05 - ID#287277)
Oh my, Oh my, look what we have here....
"The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency ( MIGA ) was established on April 12, 1988, as the newest member organization of the World Bank Group. Its purpose is to encourage the flow of foreign direct investment to its developing member countries for economic development. Its primary means of facilitating investment is through the provision of investment guarantees against the risks of currency transfer, expropriation, and war and civil disturbance ( political risks ) ."

Just popped in for my kitco 'fix'...bbl

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:06 - ID#26793)
Yes. I saw that. We need a currency Olympics, competition to see who has the best. Too many countries only qualify for the Currency Special Olympics.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:09 - ID#31868)
SpudMaster - now stop it you subversive element you.
If you don't stop spreading the truth, action will have to be taken!

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:11 - ID#26793)
Fed worried about real estate bubble (but not stock bubble. Whew)

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:11 - ID#342282)
JTF your 12:07
A really good point. Needs to be explored further--yo SDR er

Spud Master
(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:16 - ID#273112)
@Tolerant1 & District of Columbia.
You might take some solace from the thought that when this elaborate mess that is the Great Amercian Scam comes crashing down, the District of Columbia will probably end up looted & burning overnight by its own masses of poor - raised on years of free bread and circuses, enslaved to Welfare, job with futures at places like Wendy's, McDonalds, bereft of even the dimmest clue about democracy, minds pulsing with brutal rap-music themes.

My only question is how many of our responsible politicians will be trapped there to personally enjoy the ensuing festivites - flustered, red-faced, shouting "stand back, stand back!".

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:18 - ID#365216)
MONEX Y2K Compliant?
I just wrote a letter to the President of Monex, Mr. Carabini,
asking him what measures his company is taking to ensure Y2K
compliance by New Year's 2000. I will post his response.
I think we all should write similar letters to all banks and
other financial institutions with which we do business.


(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:20 - ID#287277)
BobM re gold--
We will listen to your 'policy position' with greater attention the day that BIS eliminates their currency of account, the Gold Franc.

JTF--Thnx! Some very helpful stuff re Win95. I appreciate that! {:- )
Found some interesting 'gold' stuff, about which more after a day of
[gag] mtgs.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:21 - ID#432148)
a.j. Your 12:50
Some day the U. S. will pay for the decimation of the military engineered by our Slick UKW. Why the Republicans are not making this a major issue Teddy Roosevelt would ask???? I guess that is why he became a Bull Moose? Excuse the expression. Whatever happened to the big stick ? I am actually a bear on the market, and a Bull Moose on gold - somewhere down the pike. When? The time draws nearer every day. As a student of history I can believe nothing else.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:22 - ID#31868)
SpudMaster - you missed this earlier
Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 12:04
tolerant1 ( farfel - agree with your thinking ) ID#31868:
Copyright  1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

However I think it would be important to specify more directly that the major disruptions will occur in the larger metropolitan areas and medium sized cities. No question this coming period in America's history will be riddled with mayhem and social horrors. The rural areas will be less affected, large and medium cities and urban outskirts will suffer greatly.

One fascinating aperture into the rage will be viewed at the epicenter of the lies, the District of Columbia. Truly, there will be days of rioting there and nothing will stop it, nothing. The people will not be mad on that day, they will have gone mad.

In addition, look to see how many of our beloved government officials celebrate New Years 1999 there, the exodus shall be hypocrisy at its zenith.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:24 - ID#287277)
[taking a leaf from SilverBaron's book] T RIPOLAR....(1)....(2)....(3)
Intergovernmental Group of 24--

"...therefore an urgent need ... to ensure that the transition to a TRIPOLAR CURRENCY system proceeds with... international coordination to minimize instability in the exchange and capital markets

USD ( ? ) ; Euro ( for sure ) and...Asian Currency Unit..or...SDR?
and might as well take a glance at the Group of 77...

Spud Master
(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:24 - ID#273112)
On second thought,
Reno could just as easily take a page from the robber barrons of old and hire half poor masses into a riot control force with shoot to kill orders against the other half rioting in Washington D.C.

I seem to remember that the prerequiste for the the Gestapo/SS was a body demoralized young people eager for any idelogy to drag them out of the morass of 1920's, & 1930's Wiemar Republic ambiguity & poverty.

Does anyone else see the parallel here between Wiemar/Nazi Germany and the masses of America's inner city youth? Perfect recruits, amoral, directionless, desperate.

Spud Master
(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:26 - ID#273112)
@Tolerant1 ... stunning observation!
"look to see how many of our beloved government officials celebrate New Years 1999 there [Wasington.D.C]"


(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:27 - ID#345176)
@ Spud Master on American youth

.. and you don't have to arm them. The youth is well organized ( gangs ) and carry their own weapons ( saves taxpayers money on arming them ) .

PH in LA
(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:31 - ID#225408)
Wanted: tolerance and respect for OTHERS!

From time to time I am deeply embarassed by the behavior of certain members of our forum when they are confronted by opinions and/or facts they do not subscribe to. Guffaws, hilarity, sarcasm are usually tried first. If ineffective, name calling commences...we all know the routine. When I read Tolerant's comments to BobM I cannot help remembering the response offered when the pollitically correct view that "gold will go up in a deflation" was challenged here some time ago. Mr. Tolerant trundled out an "expert" and quoted his conclusions. Unfortunately, when facts and corroberation were requested, Mr. T quickly retired from the fray having offered nothing whatsoever of substance to the discussion.

This is not to say that the aforementioned should be censured. On numerous occasions he has demonstrated a depth of humanity that anyone would envy. However, this does make him an expert on every subject. It bears repeating: Everyone has a contribution to make. Some greater and some some smaller. They should all be allowed to make that contribution.

Unfortunately, the same tactics have been used towards ANOTHER potentially invaluable poster of late. Last night, I returned from work rather late but nevertheless came on line to view the promised discussion between Allen ( USA ) and ANOTHER. The much anticipated discussion was disappointing to say the very least. Two comments by each by which time Allen ( USA ) had completely departed from the subject at hand and wound up on his current soapbox of Y2K. ( Which topic has benefitted greatly, BTW from Allen's capable and imaginative treatment. ) In any case however, ANOTHER's subject was completely ignored. If this result was even in part caused by the less-than-respectful treatment given ANOTHER's story lately, the guilty parties deserve chastisement. ANOTHER was offering his comments to all of us through Allen ( USA ) . Those of us interested in what he had to say have a right to feel cheated by the egotistical scoffers who seem offended that OTHER opinions than their own receive credence here.

If tolerance and respect were offered to every poster, regardless of the views proffered, this forum would benefit greatly.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:35 - ID#26669)
Tolerant1 I think that the old principles of life are still sound.
IMHO persons of sound ethical and moral standing are right to never offer unprovoked offense, but once they or their communities are damaged it is equally correct for them to defend with vigor. I believe that there is serious harm done by both extremes, that which seeks to overthrow the present institutions and that which will perpetrate injustice for the next generation.

I think that here on Kitco there is often too much worry about ways to 'game' the tax reporting system out of confiscation fear, and this worry reflects more general worry among the people, probably part of the reason the general population distrusts gold so much as a consistant store of wealth.

On Kitco I've heard endless worries about several tangential issues including Zippergate, abortion, gun control, the UN, the DOD, the IMF, global warming legislation, et cetera. So, if people are so worried, perhaps they should seek to divert a fraction of their wealth into ongoing efforts to reverse ( by litigation, education and other legal means ) the recent government excesses. A basic web search will reveal lots of places which need their contributions. Then, instead of saying, "I'm so afraid of XYZ that I have to hide my gold in the woods" they can say, "I contributed to the anti-XYZ legal defense fund and I DARE that So and So to come take my gold" or "I resigned from QRX organization and wrote them a letter saying it was because they support XYZ then bought some gold with the refunded dues". IMHO

In 1930's Europe, people "voted with their feet", so a 1998 analog might be "voting with the pocketbook", contributing to flat-tax, anti-IMF, anti-fellation, pro-tariff, pro-mining-rights candidates if that is what they believe in. Or they can buy mining shares in a vote of confidence for the industry or a gold coin specifically to wear on a chain around their neck. It might make the long term bear market easier to tolerate if we think of at least some of our purchases as being less motivated by the profit motive and more motivated by a political desire for freedom, justice, Mom and apple pie. IMHO

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:36 - ID#288399)
Donald/Fed worries about real estate
It's really heartening to know the Fed is on the job. After all, since 1988, my house has appreciated about 5%. And the stock market has only that that quadrupled....I forget. Anyway, only hard assets count went one is looking for inflation...didn't you know that??????Keep up your good posts, Donald; I, for one, REALLY appreciate your perspective and sense of humor. Thanks.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:38 - ID#339265)
Back in the early '90's, when the economy looked truly dismal, Wall Street decided that it would adopt a new strategy for the decade.
All negatives would either be ignored or cast in a positive light. No matter how bad the daily news looked, Wall Street would present it in its best face.

Of course, that strategy is not hard to follow: any event can be perceived either as "the glass is half-full or the glass is half-empty."

Now, it is time for the gold market and gold investors to adopt the same strategy: all negative news pertaining to gold MUST either be ignored entirely or reshaped into its most positive form. Once this strategy is effected, a gold bull market is inevitable.

The mantra is very simple:

Anti-gold propaganda: XXX gold mining company is about to collapse and
its bankruptcy will drag all the other gold companies down/
Goldbug response: I don't care...I'm buying more.

Anti-gold propaganda: the American government intends to sell Fort Knox
and build a new money printing press in the the same spot.
Goldbug response: I don't care...I'm buying more.

Anti-gold propaganda: George Soros announces to the world that he is selling all his gold in order to buy a stake in a Czech porcelain factory.
Goldbug response: I don't care...I'm buying more.

Just keep practising the will see just how quickly things change.



(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:38 - ID#247309)
A.Goose - COMEX warehouse gold stock
The following was FAXed this AM by COMEX. These are combined numbers - registered + eligible:

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

JAN 2,954,904 1,501,896 1,863,721 816,755 427,062
FEB 2,957,560 1,386,467 1,405,671 582,219 480,910
MAR 2,862,186 1,350,543 1,411,055 1,000,125
APR 2,801,550 1,391,251 1,334,781 964,583
MAY 2,433,550 1,487,744 1,692,993 888,169
JUN 2,665,205 1,504,671 1,263,797 844,994
JUL 2,574,171 1,592,613 1,269,093 914,011
AUG 2,029,622 1,408,401 1,479,551 733,065
SEP 1,903,576 1,706,659 1,315,276 894,413
OCT 1,843,244 1,422,087 1,050,087 635,388
NOV 1,866,948 1,315,059 1,130,832 718,176
DEC 1,577,427 1,458,371 666,165 489,158

Your MAR 24 #'s of 3/24 combined = 567,574

3/24 opening interest was 55,800

X 100 oz per contract = 5,580,000 oz

1st notice date 3/31?

NOTE: COMEX claims the ability to draw on London et al if needed to make delivery if necessary. I wonder if the Hunts would agree with this claimed ability....

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:42 - ID#223146)
Where Was The Gold??????
In response to A_Goose and his query regarding the delivery of our contracted gold from the Comex, the following is a summary of what happened. The last delivery day was Feb 25,1998 and we had received only 3 contracts out of 20. Lind Waldock was the broker and was beginning to become concerned due to the pressure being applied by us. All money required to fulfill the transaction was sitting in T-Bills in the account. On the 27 of Feb we received 2 more contracts and then nothing.
Upon considerable pressure to go to the Comex directly Lind Waldock put three people on tracing the gold. On March 11 1998 the balance of the gold was delivered. I do not know why the delay or what might have happened but the concept of taking physical delivery is alien and has impacted their system. We now know that if there is a run on the shorts and the longs request to take delivery, first notice day is when they will look for the physical to complete the transaction. That may be too late in a crazy market on the verge of shut down. I think "Another" may be correct about holding the physical rather that the derivative. With this problem in an orderly market, the disorderly market may not function.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:43 - ID#289357)
What you postulate is a possibility - HOWEVER - my small purchases are only numismastic and semi-numismatic coins, no bullion coins.

Perhaps gold and these coins may become illegal, but I've done everything I can to minimize the risk and I'm not gonna worry about it. For at least 1/2 of the total ( in gold ) I have small coins ( 1/5 ounce or less ) which could be used for barter purposes.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:44 - ID#31868)
PH in LA - Hello, hello - Mr. Phlitically Correct
I will will stick with the good Dr. that provided the thorough and lengthy study, in addition to Lord Rees-Mogg, J. Taylor, need I go on or should I run off and hide again as you suggest. In fact I think that there are many analysts that have proven that gold does not rise in inflation but rather in deflation.

This topic has been beaten to death here, until I see a study half the length of the good Dr.'s I would prefer not to engage in such intellectual drival. But, it does not really matter does it, one way or the other we are all going to live it, the proof is in the pudding as it is said.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:45 - ID#269245)
farfel, pushing the physical - who's next?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:45 - ID#247309)
Plaintalker - internet trading
No offense intended to big traders like you. The GUY said he had only a little money and I thot he wanted direction on HOW TO TRADE. Maybe I should have told him to start trading commodity accounts with 6 and 7 digit balances like you and that then internet trading would be an excellent idea. I assume a GUY because what woman would want the handle SCARFACE???

Bob M
(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:47 - ID#26059)
PH in LA
I am just trying to make the point that investor sentiment has to be changed in a major way for people noot to buy stocks, and that is not going to happen overnight. My contention is that war or the threat of war will be the ultimate death of equities..and usually war does not happen over is forseen a long time before it happens. I have been around the gold market and have observed since the late 70s, and I have heard the same old story of it is going to go up tommorrow for years now...I believe people try to analyze all the political and economic factors to death, and overlook the basic factor, supply and demand..for the last 18 years, the demand for gold has been declining while the supply has been increasing ( mining technological advances ) and in the equity markets, the demand has been increasing while the supply has been shrinking ( corporate buybacks of their own stocks ) ..all I am trying to say is that this run on equities will continue until something better comes along..and that may be much longer then people anticipate...thanks for your kind words

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:47 - ID#289357)
A. Goose

I don't need no stinkin' COMEX gold either, under those conditions.....

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:51 - ID#345176)
Where is the ship heading?

The DOWTanic has changed direction and it is now down 31 points.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:51 - ID#266105)
@farwolf in sheep's fell

( taptaptap ) I don't care. I'm buying Nevermore.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:51 - ID#410198)
SDRer,Multilaterail Agreement on Investments,now there is insurance,BUY GOLD LOTS OF IT

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:54 - ID#339265)

Keep practising the mantra fellas...the gold bull will follow shortly.


(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:56 - ID#271215)
PH in LA
I have noticed your lack of tolerance on this forum and suggest that perhaps you too should live up to what you preach.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:58 - ID#57232)
Rudiger Dornbusch post -- Japan and the state of the world
Donald, SDRer, All: Please read this earlier post of RD: 'Asian Crisis Themes', posted by an unknown contributor. It is an eye opener, even if it is 'pro-IMF'. RD actually states that all we is need is a match -- sooner or later -- and what happened in SEAsia will happen in the USA. This is highly significant coming from a well-connected, mainstream, well respected MIT economist such as RD. He suggests that what will most likely do in the US markets is the resumption of inflation -- rising long term rates, I would guess. No comment about what AG could do or wouldn't do. Wouldn't it be interesting if that site in Texas reported months ago that apparently had piles of US paper currency was part of a Fed contingency plan -- in case of deflationary collapse?

Japan: RD is deeply pessimistic, giving reasons we have discussed many times -- the lack of transparency being one of the most serious matters. A key item I did not know is in regard to unfunded pension liabilities, reaching total levels of 200% of Japanese GDP. Japan has few baby-boomers like we do to subsidize government income, so these are probably due now, even if our unfunded liabilities are about 400% of GDP. Japan will probably try to demonetize their debt to cover all the retired Japanese. This explains the new Japanese interest in commodity funds.

Who's next according to RD? Brazil, he thinks. Nothing said about Europe -- worrisome if those German firms are so debt ridden, and an early Kitco poster mentioned earlier. Looks like RD thinks we are repeating the 1925-1929 scenario.

So RD's scenario is US inflation first before a crash. A key question is how many more times can gold spike down due to the turmoil in other countries before inflation engulfs us. My guess is not much below $280/oz. -- but a world threatening crisis of some kind coming out of Japan could still happen.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 14:59 - ID#345176)
@ Bob M

Investor phsychology can change overnight. 1987 you remember?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:01 - ID#339265)


(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:02 - ID#28098)
Big, Bigger, BIGGEST bureaucracy in the history of the world...
Tripolar currency system makes necessary YET ANOTHER
Central Bank! There will be BIS, the central bank for the central banks
ECB, the European central bank
FBR, the US central bank
and what? The World Bank as the SDRs central bank?
The PRC central bank as the Asian central bank [dont think so]
A NEW central bank to cover the emerging nations--because that is the composition of the Group of major industrial giants on THAT committee....
Really got to go...darn it...I'm out of here!

Spud Master@on.Tolerant1's.stunning.observation? We like BRABO! {:- )

(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:03 - ID#31868)
223 - good grief, could you get more different inventory in yoiur next post
I think you almost covered everything. Your last sentence though, I shall comment on. There, in that thought is quite a bit, in and of itself to think and ponder on. I believe it goes something like; The love of money is the root of all evil.

True enough, I have said many times that I am not interested in making oodles and oodles of money, then I would just replace various worries with others. I accept responsibility for my actions, pay my own way. I live a simple or meager life as some might view it, but to me I have all the riches in the world in family, friends, the natural world around me, especially the ocean and I am content.

I am happy with the oodle of money I have and any extra funds which come
my way simply funds my emotions extended to others

Bob M
(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:03 - ID#26059)
and how long did the "overnight change last" was just a blip on the overall stock was not a major change to a classical bear market..actually the crash of 87 was the greatest buying opportunity of the entire stock bull market

Mike Stewart
(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:06 - ID#270253)
Strange Patterns
I was just looking at my McClellan Summation charts for patterns around day 175 to 200 from a +3000 reading. ( We had one last July. )

This looks a lot like the 1976 pattern from my perspective. If that pattern follows, we should see a quick decline for the next eight weeks, then back up to current levels in another eight weeks. At that point, we have a double top around Dow 9000 ( 8999 just to annoy CNBC programmers ) .

Note that gold had a very major low as the Dow peaked in late 1976. It began a four year bull into 1980. During this time the large South African issues rose by about 10X and the leveraged ones rose by 20X. It must have been difficult not to sell out too early. When the next gold bull arrives, many of us will have to deal with this problem.

Just some silly thoughts for us as we watch the Dow drop this afternoon.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:08 - ID#27499)
Missed the handle in my first posting
trying again

(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:08 - ID#266105)

Investor phsychology can change overnight. 1987 you remember?


Iinteresting study of 1987. Within an efficient market framework,
investors were queried as reasons for selling into the decline. Was
it a comment by the Federal Reserve? News of an unfortuitous overseas
event. Political developments somewere? No, the overwhelming majority
of investors stated that their primary reason for selling in October

(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:11 - ID#210235)
You're right again.

No, really, you are absolutely on top of the reality of what the brokerage houses will experience when they reap the rewards of luring the underclass into the toppy stock market. I am thinking of a real person I know who put her meager present for her grandson's college into a mutual fund rather than a savings account. The baby, born to a unwed welfare teenage mom and a dad convicted of a violent felony. Multiply their disappointment by what? half a million others?

These fellows in their leased mercedes had better stop partying long enough to see the possible outcome of their greed.

As for buying gold in the face of bearish news. Great advice. No better time to buy!

Spud Master
(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:11 - ID#273112)
WHOA HORSEY! .... Dow down 102
anyone know the reason for the wild ride today?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:11 - ID#333232)
Real Life & the unexpected
Well, I've been very busy as of late and it's good to see that the thematic content continues unabated. I just wanted to relate a real-life anecdote.
My wife, ( not a goldbug by any stretch of the imagination ) recently floored me with the following commentary she gave after having just returned from an aborted fast-food run. She says:
"I just can't believe it - there were a ton of people in the drive-thru. Doesn't anybody actually make anything by themselves any more? They just go out and CONSUME. I mean, look at the newspaper ... buy buy credit credit... Doesn't anybody realise that credit is selling your future? I don't like this, something is really wrong. I mean this whole consumer based thing could really just fall apart. All that needs to happen is a wave of *bad luck* - layoffs, whatever. What happens when enough people just decide *not* to continue buying new stuff for whatever reason. Or if they instead, pay off debt, where do all those new *things* go? I can't put my finger on it, and I'm not millenialist nut - but *we* need to go completely defensive - *something* - no, I don't know exactly what - bad is going to happen soon, I'll give it two years.
But what I'm really worried about is: after paying off the debt, how do we actually *keep* any of the money we've saved? I mean, mutual funds and banks seem like a good idea - but aren't they essentially big ATM's? What would we do if one day their systems were just *down*? They could just say *sorry, temporarily out of cash*. Where does that leave us? So what do you think? How do we keep what we have? I need a beer."

-- Just an aside, she has never read the Kitco board nor was she, until she said the above "conservative". She is very much a gen-Xer I do believe that the commentary was *somehow* gold related : ) Can anybody come up with a well reasoned response for her? I was stunned, and just sort of babbled on about keeping close ties with family & friends, keeping a reserve of food, good will, cash & a little gold.
PS. the 401k is being liquidated Friday - penalties and all ( I only accounted for 62% of the total as actual after-tax value anyway ) .

Anybody got a Dinar yet?


(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:11 - ID#339265)
ANOTHER, REALISTIC, A.GOOSE, SILVERBARON, GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD, and all the other guys ( my apologies ) whose names escape me.




(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:12 - ID#410198)
JTF,I think Donald posted this,Prof.Paul Krugman (MIT) AKA Liberal
Told a conference of business executives in Manila "I think it's sell North America,which really looks overvalued right now.I don't understand the current value of the US stockmarket.I think we're crazy. ( reuters )
Everything suggests that inflation is building up but being concealed temporarily by a strong dollar.......No s##t

(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:13 - ID#31868)
farfel - agree with you once again, I don't care, I'm buying more.
Roughly thiry minutes ago in a conversation with my brother I was saying the same thing. He asked, even though he knows better if I buy coins every month only to hear me say yeah, when I can, every week.

Buyin and buyin more each and every opportunity.

I have even given him and his wife, their kids and their kids gold and silver coins, sorta like trying to jumpstart their metal buyin motors.

The little people are the best, Holy cow, is this REAL? I love it.

Get the kids, then their kids and then their kids..............

(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:16 - ID#210235)
@robnoel and Myrmidon
You seem to have a good grasp of reporting requirements, which I am just picking up in bits and pieces. Do you know of a source, book or website, where I can get a comprehensive account of the laws?

Robnoel, in your 13:41, re Rubin: Report each 500 transaction? By whom? To whom? For what type of transaction? By the banks for cash withdrawals or by the merchants for cash transactions? Over the course of a year?

Thanks to you both.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:16 - ID#266105)

1987- I think it took eighteen months to be 'made whole'
if having bought at peak before decline, if I recall correctly.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:17 - ID#210235)
The reading was a pleasure. Thanks for the writing.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:20 - ID#210235)
Your charts have arrived. Thank you. Will try to get them back to you ( Email ) by the weekend.


(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:22 - ID#338289)
Allen, All: Y2K: Does it belong here?
Allen, All: Your 13:27 was a great summary of recent Y2K developments.

For those of you that think the subject of Y2K does not belong on this site, I would suggest that you also discourage people from making comments about the stock markets. Throw bonds and curriencies in there too. "Not the same thing", you say? Think again. Just like the start of a bear market in stocks will probably occur right around the emergence of a gold bull market, those of us that are Y2K-alarmed think this event will have a great effect on the POG and POS. The discussion of when these Y2K-related events might occur and how we should prepare for them is just as valid as the discussion of various future stock market events.

Bob M
(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:22 - ID#26059)
If it was 18 months to "be made whole again" that is not that long..the goldbugs who bought in 1980 have waited 18 years and they are still waiting ( still down 70% ) ..years as opposed to months?????....

(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:24 - ID#247309)
Midwesterner - Beware of RICO
The IRS reporting requirements technically apply to cash transactions which do not include checks since your bank keeps copies of those. However, banks often report unusual movements of money by depositors to the IRS ( one source of audit trigger ) . The series of $9,000 payments may work, or you could order each lot from different dealers.
BUT - and this is big - engaging in a series of related actions with the intent of disguising what you are doing triggers money laundering/RICO problems. The best known example may be the Treasury dept employee working in the US currency printing plant filching the printed bills ( he was the one who counted them, so he just subtracted the amount he took from the daily total ) and depositing $9,900 in his bank every week. A suspicious teller called some gov't XZY agency ( FBI/IRS/whatever ) who investigated with the result of a conviction of not just theft but RICO.

BIG BROTHER and his innumerable minions are watching your every move!

By the way, did you know that George Orwell wrote "1984" on the island of Jura, which produces one of the best "island" whiskeys?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:24 - ID#31868)
cmh *******************
look earlier in the day, SilverBaron had some posts on where to get the elusive Dinar.

Great story.

Bully Beef
(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:25 - ID#259282)
Bob M is sensible but...
If Bob M's advice were given in Oct. and we followed his advise we would have made money. If you had bought gold futures two weeks ago on ANOTHERS advise you would have made money. Something tells me if we followed RJ's advise we would make money ( But he would short sell his grandmothers gold ) .

Bob ...everybody here thinks the financial system is going to crumble. I have thought that way for two years. There are alot of people here who have got fleeced on gold. I've lost maybe 20% in since Sept.97. I don't care about the stock market.I believe the system is about to break...Somewhat. Not total social and economic disaster...but a correction that will burn the boomers.

I don't know if you've noticed but I don't agree with much that is said here but there is one thing I emphatically agree with these people and that is the great economic reckoning is coming.

So if you are a liberal please buy some gold so I'm not the only one to survive.

Remember that age old Chinese curse...May you live in interesting times.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:26 - ID#317193)
Perceptions and Change
F*- the glass is half-full. Once again, change is God's way of telling you your not dead. Expect change, it's coming to a city near you soon. Hedge your bets and find the bright side to any situation. Off to buy some freeze dried food stuffs for the millenium. Tom

(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:28 - ID#410198)
Prometheus,a good book all should have,Coin World Almanac,(St.Martins Press)
As for $500.00 reporting,it is in affect in NY area,currently on bank wires,money orders to South America ( drug thing ) however he wants to expand it nation wide

(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:30 - ID#251166)
I don't care! I'm buying more!

(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:37 - ID#410198)
BobM ,you are a liberal,rather than your time frame of golds high try 1975
.when gold was $35.00,how long did it take for stock investors to recover after 87,I'am talking about those who did not sell,

Bob M
(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:38 - ID#26059)
Bully Beef
A liberal?? I am a rabid conservative..and yes I believe in gold as an insurance policy. ( a small percentage ) ...but I have watched the crash mentality and doom and gloom destroy peoples financial lives over the is Ok to be prepared within a degree of reason, but do not base your entire life on some event that may or may not must live in the meantime and enjoy yourself ( but not to excesses ) is like the doom and gloom crowd wish disaster to befall everyone and get enjoyment from it...the survivalist types look forward to the day when chaos breaks out so they can don their AK47s and play army...ask someone who has been in the ultimate life and death situation and see how many enjoyed it.....

(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:39 - ID#345176)
@ Prometheus

Sorry, I don't have a specific book or site to refer you to. But if you ask your bank they will tell you that they report cash transactions over $10,000. But I am not sure if they report withdrawals of $10,000+. This subject of cash monitoring has been brought up at Kitco in the past, and it will come up again.

There is an IRS code for the $5,000 paid by a coin shop for coins sold by an investor which must be reported. A gentleman on this site mentioned it some time ago. If the seller has no receipt of the purchase price then he has to pay taxes on the entire amount received.

BANCONE in the fine print stipulates that they reserve the right to notify the government Gestapo agencies for any suspicious cash transactions ( which means that any airhead teller can initiate such process ) .

(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:44 - ID#269245)
I sing the Goldbug Mantra:


F*, back to you...

Bob M
(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:44 - ID#26059)
The $35 gold price was a once in a lifetime government giveaway as that price did not change for decades thanks to was an unrealistic low price as the market proved when gold shot up to $100..which was a better reflection of reality..the $800 was awildly speculative price that the Middle east events precipitated...the people who did not panic and sell in 1987 were rewarded greatly ..besides the bull vbegan at 800 Dow..the dropoff of 87 was more fear thaen reality

(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:45 - ID#339265)
...was clearly palpable when the DOW turned down rapidly over 100 points.

Remember those looks of fear...they are the true indicators of impending weakness and disaster in the Dow and Nasdaq.

Remember those looks of fear...and know in your heart that you are more perceptive, much stronger, and possess a clear mind where your own contrarian investments are concerned. You are the strong ones now...and the equity/bond investors are weak.

So, when the next anti-gold propagandist unleashes his torrent of BS upon you, you'll know what to say...



(Wed Mar 25 1998 15:58 - ID#31868)
Bob M - How do you expect anyone to take seriously
any of your postings when you say that the only thing that will derail the markets is war? C'mon, gimmee a break. You see no problems with insolvent banks, derrivatives, over-capacity everywhere, bankruptcy historical highs, the US with the highest national debt of any nation in the history of civilization, etc.

And last but not least, the world reserve currency backed by nothing save confidence.

I say gain, buy gold and silver.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:02 - ID#317193)
Bob M
Everyone is entitled to steer their own ship. Having just recently abandoned the Dow/Nas. for less inflated gold stocks and buying physical I can only suggest that the amount of insurance needed rises in proportion to the risk. Not surprisingly, I see considerable risk within the near future. I veiw the downside risk in PM's as small and, obviously, the downside risk in the Dow/Nas. as great. All a matter of perceptions,eh. Good Luck on your course of action. Tom

(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:05 - ID#217268)
We should all be concerned about the preservation of SOME wealth. After all, "money in the bank" is simply an electronic journal entry that requires electricity for validation. Even the paper market depends on electricity as most investors do not have the stock certificates in their possession. It is with their broker in the "street name". My understanding is IRA's are not allowed to be held in anything other than street name. Redemption-In-Kind may not return the original investment to the investor, in hard times.

Along those same lines ( no pun intended ) , I wonder where all the money to continue to fuel the stock and bond markets will come from. If credit cards are maxed out and soon 125% home equity loans are maxed out, both of which are being sent to the stock and bond paper markets, what's next ???

I have lost all "feel" for this supply/demand paper market. But what a ride ...

(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:10 - ID#252150)
Bob M@War is not necessary to wound the bull
All it will take is a slight uptick in interst rates. If the long bond gets over 6% it will start to stumble & at 6.25% it will collapse.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:11 - ID#410194)
Record highs in equities....
When the North-American equities will top for good, it will probably happen like today: a quick retreat from all time highs without any specific reasons for it! ( I agree with Farfel who also mentioned something similar in one of his earlier posts... )

The S&Ps recovered half way from their highs to lows, which is also subtle enough not to make people panick and therefore increasing the odds of a legitimate breather.

So is this a top? Short term? Long term?

Nobody knows but it is certainly worth watching what will follow with this all time biggest bull market given the need of at least an overdue correction, all of this unfolding the very week that the Titanic has been awarded the all time best movie ( tied with Ben-Hur ) about the all time biggest commercial ship.

Caution is of course needed! The biggest bulls tend to drag out longer than most can imagine. Been there, done that, eh?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:11 - ID#342376)
It seems a little bit of bond selling derailed the market today....
The U.S. Markets are very fragile with such lofty heights.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:15 - ID#410198)
BobM,sorry for the label,however gold was $35.00 from 1933 till 1975
Americans may not have bought any at that price,the rest of the planet did,for the record President Ford signed the bill lifting the 40 year old restrictions on US citizens on Dec.31 1974.European gold dealers anticipating a "gold rush" by Americans after it became legal,were dismayed when this failed to come about,the price of gold which reached $195.00 on Dec 27 th. actually slipped to $175.00 on Jan.2nd.
Higher inflation,increasing US trade deficits and a weak dollar drove the price to $223.00 on Oct.3 1978,nine months later on July 18 1979 it was fixed at $303.00 it rose till it's high Jan 21 1980 $850.00
Does history repeat it self thats the question you need to ask

(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:19 - ID#266105)

Bob M ( 2BRO2B ) ID#26059:
If it was 18 months to "be made whole again" that is not that long..the goldbugs who
bought in 1980 have waited 18 years and they are still waiting ( still down 70% )
..years as opposed to months?????....


According to my calculations the Dow surpassed its
previous high set in 1966 but in recent months.

Tough crowd.


To the beach, which I've heard tell life has been
for millions of years.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:21 - ID#39971)
This DOW-TANIC verses GOLD discussion has been blathered about so many

times on this board and others,all one needs do is grant the regular

contibutors a little levity and research the site before flying off with

the same old tired argument of.............

1 ) Goldbugs are ----------------------*

2 ) The Dow is-------------------------*

3 ) Gold is----------------------------*

4 ) The media are--------------------*

5 ) You should have--------------------*

6 ) Don't worry------------------------*

7 ) If you bought ( date ) ----------------*

8 ) If you sold ( date ) ------------------*

9 ) Buy low----------------------------*

10 ) Buy high--------------------------*

Anyone wish to fill in the blanks? Yawn............

And F* are so right.Every time some hero wants to save the

GoldBugs from themselvs for the green green grass of Wally Street,it is

usually after a big rise after a near death experience.They never present

an argument which includes the risk factors and relate to the numbing

gut wrenching experience.They develope amnesia when asked " where were

you when the markets hit the last ice berg.Were you on the upper decks

with a life boat waiting,or were you one of the lesser folks locked below

watching the ocean flood in "?

PS:Gee!I guess that was just the first little ice-cube the DOW-TANIC just

hit.Time to speed up me thinks.

BobM:You came with guns a blearing.What did you expect?I thought so.:- )

GoldBugs prepare...we will soon be our little golden boats....

that will surely stay afloat...when the DOW-TANIC hits the berg...the

cries that will be heard.... " Moms and Pops last....Gold going up fast!"

(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:24 - ID#410194)
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released this afternoon:

Gold: Unchanged at 567,574 troy ounces

*** This must be the 4th trading day in a row I think that it is unchanged. ( ? )

Silver: Rose 351,759 troy ounces to 89,269,282

*** Just above an 18 year low

Copper: Rose 19 short tonnes to 112,495

(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:32 - ID#252150)
Dornbusch@Apocalypse Now
I thought I was bearish on Japan until I read his latest. If he is half right, the easiest money will be made this year shorting the JY. Unfortunately, a very weak JY does'nt bode well for POG.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:35 - ID#339265)
...Hey, guess what?



(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:43 - ID#27499)
All: Reading Prof Krugman,
its amazing to realize, that "Anyone who claims to fully understand the economic disaster that has overtaken Asia proves, by that very certainty, that he doesn't know what he is talking about. ( The guy who convinced Suharto that a currency board would solve all his problems is a case in point ) . The truth is that we have never seen anything quite like this. Of course the country doctors at the IMF and the US Treasury Department are obliged, by the nature of their position, to adopt a reassuring bedside manner as they prescribe their bitter economic medicine. But we all know that in reality they are pretending a confidence they do not at all feel, that even as they lay down the law to their clients they are groping frantically for models and metaphors to make sense of this thing. In fact, the best thing I can say about the people running the show in this case - who happen to be people I know rather well - is that they are smart enough, and also personally secure enough, to know and admit to themselves that they are making it up as they go along. In fact, some of them do something really unusual: they continue to come to academic and quasi-academic meetings, to listen to the give and take of outsiders who have the luxury of being able to engage in irresponsible speculation. ( Whether they are prepared to act on what they hear is another matter ) .

So, in my confusion, Im not alone. Feeling better already! You?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:46 - ID#258129)
DOW today
I have the same feeling as in July last year. It had to collapse today or week before and almost for sure tomorrow In practice - few more weeks to go

(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:48 - ID#347235)
A Farfel

(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:48 - ID#347235)

Pete T__A
(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:48 - ID#170184)

(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:50 - ID#288295)
aurator, Nick@C ARE YOU TWO UP YET?
A little chicken dinar for your breakfast ( replay from this morning ) :

(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:52 - ID#57232)
Japanese Bank runs in progress -- R Dornbusch
All: ANOTHER tidbit from the Feb 98 Rudiger Dornbusch manuscript -- well hidden in his 'Asian Crisis Themes ' manuscript that was posted by an unknown Kitcoite earlier today:

A bank run is 'in progress' in Japan.

Wow! Talk about news blackouts! That makes our news media look like 100% Matt Drudge types.

I think this explains the Japanese US treasury sales. If RD is right, the Japanese government will not be buying gold right now if they are desperately pumping money into any black hole they can find. However, the Japanese people could be buying gold or similar items -- over 100+ million of them. I would. I guess those home safe purchases were no passing fad.

Can anyone confirm this information? Also -- if so, Japan may be an 'ace' away from the final implosion. And -- if this is happening, Hashimoto must have failed at any meaningful banking, etc. reform. I wonder what it takes for the Japanese who loyally trust their government for eons -- decades at least -- to panic and withdraw their cash from the local bank. The average American or European would be much less trusting of their bank if trouble was in the air.

Pete T__A
(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:54 - ID#170184)
Allegheny Mines
To all Allegheny followers: Have any of you ever visited the Vanguard Base Metals Property? This is the property with the 3 parallel structures.
Please let me know what you saw, and what your impression was?
Thanks, Pete

(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:54 - ID#231337)
Thanks to all
I am a new participant of this discussion group, and would like to commend many of the contributors for fine insights into the great gold controversy. My only critique is to the over reaction and premature comment to gold related events, but generally, there is much value in the comments made.

I am left increasingly with a gut feeling that goes as follows: a parallel senerio to what's happening today.. equities in the US markets on the greatest bull run ever seen ( a super supply of dollars looking for a home ) and the static ( no measurable return ) value of gold, can be likened to the movement of one gigantic earth plate against another static plate. Only so much friction, tension and stress can be absorbed by either before there is a massive correction ( the earthquake ) . The greater the disparity, the greater and more violent the correction.

In the end, a devaluation of the dollar by 25% or 40% of its current value, means that gold valued at $300 moves to $375 or $420, while not really increasing in value at all or accounting for the other pressure on this commodity value because of shortages etc. God help those on the 'plate' that corrects. The difficulty is in the wait for those knowing that they see no return while others around them revel in their 'new found wealth'.

He who laughs last.... laughs best. But beware kind soul, if your are laughing last, you may be carrying a great new and heavy burden.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:54 - ID#347235)
@ Farfel & All
Sorry about this Old timers disease is making my right little finger twitch don on enter prematurely. Farfel for once I agree with you, the lower it goes the more I will buy until I run out of savings then I will still buy with my monthly retirement check. One day we will all enjoy the ride!!!!! Shalom

(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:56 - ID#365216)
to CMH
I was so impressed by your wife's insightful thoughts without the
benefit of our discussions that I copied and pasted them onto an
email and sent them to my girlfriend. We are both trying to prepare
for Y2K, and any other man-made or natural disasters which may be
waiting ahead for us. How many Americans will be asking themselves
2 years from now: Why didn't I buy some bullion? Why didn't I get
some cold, hard cash? Why did I just house enough food supplies for
a week or month? Why didn't I learn firearms protection to defend
my family and estate? WHY? WHY? WHY?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 16:57 - ID#252127)
Millenium Silver Coin??

Some silver gossip taken from the S.I. thread "silver prices" and then some.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 17:06 - ID#26793)
Thanks for the gold dinar news. I e.mailed the Islamic Mint after your first post expressing my interest in purchasing. Nothing yet. I will post it when I get a response.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 17:07 - ID#246224)
Tell her that she is seeing the rotten foundation. It is time to soberly assess the ways to preserve wealth and to keep assessing the situation as news and information roll in ( credit, debt, market bubbles ( RE&Stox ) , Y2K, etc ) . Also to keep an eye on her like minded friends. There will be a critical mass of opinion and then explosive action. She is part of the fuse that it burning down to that charge ( many others awoke at the same moment she did, this will happen more and more ) . I'm glad for you both that this has come now and not in 6 months.

Your 'babble' was right on. Keep close and prepare. Know the exits. Look for the signs of things to come. Don't wait for a crowd to recognize the obvious. Seek high ground. Lay low.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 17:10 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.62

(Wed Mar 25 1998 17:12 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .250

(Wed Mar 25 1998 17:13 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 47.26

Bob M
(Wed Mar 25 1998 17:13 - ID#26059)
down 31 points today, surely this is the beginning of a great collapse of the dow..maybe 500 points tommorrow..interest up to 6.25 that will be the end surely of equities..I have heard these stories for years now, the prediction of the worst ..but the worst never happens..forget the the money..its been pouring into stocks and bonds for years now and you know why..been to a store lately, or someones is full of products being manufactured by publicly owned companies..everyone ( including Kitocoites ) is buying manufactured prooducts every single day..we constantly consume..and the consumer base around the world is increasing every day..people will demand products forever..dont ignore the basics..

(Wed Mar 25 1998 17:15 - ID#288295)
It would be great if we could get Kitco to be a distributor for these, as they have done on the Mountie coin......

(Wed Mar 25 1998 17:21 - ID#288295)
Bob M

The consumer base isn't growing at 15-20% per year....the market is way, way ahead of any rational basis.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 17:48 - ID#20748)
The I word again

(Wed Mar 25 1998 17:50 - ID#287338)

(Wed Mar 25 1998 17:54 - ID#287338)
Must be a Y2K Problem...

(Wed Mar 25 1998 17:57 - ID#20748)
Hepcat: Is that the kinder gentler you ? We need proof. Give us a poem, or a bitch slapping post.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 17:58 - ID#57232)
Possible trouble in Australia construction industry

(Wed Mar 25 1998 17:59 - ID#26793)
Jitters over Japan blamed on treasury selloff today

(Wed Mar 25 1998 17:59 - ID#26669)
Tolerant1, glad you liked it!
It does my heart good to see a real afficianado of the written word! You do know how to cut to the point of the whole thing, though. :^ )

(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:03 - ID#26669)
cmh (Real Life & the unexpected)
cmh, congradulations! Some years ago my own young wife came up with the same idea. So I switched my jewelry buying habits to focus on bigger, more expensive gold with fewer stones. Then I bought her a cute little S&W pocket warmer and walked her through the legal process necessary to carry it in her purse.

Lurker 777
(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:06 - ID#317247)
BEAR with me please!
Today I bought some May 290 Puts for only $60 each. I have two weeks to break 290. Piece of cake, in the bag, no problem, a walk in the park, its a give me, Its ANOTHER sure thing, ANOTHER one bites the dust! Oh yea GO GOLD.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:07 - ID#338289)
All: Y2K News You Can Use
All: I'm not sure if the URL below will work ( might require free registration ) so I posted the whole article which is short. Pay special attention to the 3rd paragraph. I have seen Dave Hall's name before in my reading but I don't know how to contact him. Does anyone have a site or e-mail address where I can reach him? I sure would like to find out how many total power plants are included in that 100% failure rate.

Industry acts dumb to embedded chip threat

Manufacturing firms are four times more likely to face problems with millennium compliance in embedded systems than in their mainframe applications. Dave Hall, a member of the US Society of Information Management's year 2000 working party, believes the embedded chip issue is still underestimated by industry. "The level of awareness is equivalent to that for mainframe systems two years ago," he said.

Hall has been consolidating data on the millennium problems facing embedded systems for three years. "If the present trends continue, then parts of the water, power and telecoms infrastructures are going to go down," he said.

"Every test that I have seen on a power plant so far has resulted in the operation shutting down within a minute. I have seen tests on four different water treatment plants, and each time they have either stopped purifying water or dumped raw sewage on to beaches when the tide was out," he added.

An estimate by Gartner Group said 2% of embedded chips will present problems.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:09 - ID#57232)
Paul Krugman's home page
This is one of Rudiger Dornbusche's MIT economist colleagues, who apparently got some credit for warning the world that SEAisa was in trouble before anything happened.

- Plenty of articles to browse --

bernatz du ventadorm
(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:11 - ID#182192)
HepMeMoney is not me
Since Bart instituted his registration policy,
it should be obvious who I am and who I am not.
I only have one e-mail address. I tire of these
non-contributions to this BB, and also allowing
people to post silly chants ad nauseum.
What Bart needs is a way to restrict the number
of posts each day, or a way to shut people up
who obviously have nothing valuable to contribute.
This site needs to be about where gold is heading,
not where pathetic losers who are always on the
wrong side of every investment want gold to be heading.
In short, this site sucks, and I stopped posting
here for two months because it sucks. I only came
back now to tell people that it sucks, and with
the exception of people who post here who I like
or whose opinions match mine, I think everyone
else sucks. Oh, also, I think V. Professeur is
R. Hughes.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:12 - ID#329157)
Japan Jitters
Check the 1929/1998 mania blowoff top chart at the stock market warning page:
Today's blip down could be one of those squiggles on the "left hand shoulder" of the blowoff peak. If so, it is set to shoot upward again shortly.

See what Reuters reported on today's blip down:
'' "The five-year note auction wasn't too good," one trader said. "And the yen was up all day and that scared a lot of people into thinking about Japan and the possibility they may sell their Treasury holdings." ''

Could be a taster of things to come...

Date: Fri Nov 07 1997 22:37
1 ) Why then did Hashimoto threaten to sell US SECURITIES and buy gold?
He will do both, but not in order or in amounts supposed. The BOJ is buying gold now , much more than assumed. They will sell US debt but only after a rising oil price runs the US$ thru the roof. Even then it will be as minor currency management!

Well, we have had a rising oil price, and now thoughts of Japan selling their Treasury holdings. But the US$ hasn't gone through the roof yet. So perhaps what is happening now is a mere preshock. Not to mention the new $8 Australian camel tax.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:14 - ID#287358)

key reversal in dow and s&p today....thursday and friday
going to be real BEARS.....

eb--it will time....probably sooner than later too...

grains are fixing to make some BIG moves reflecting next tuesday's
usda reports on planting and carryover....i've got my tickets to
the you have yours?


(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:15 - ID#57232)
Paul Krugman is my kind of guy
See below: 'Habits of highly Defective Investors' -- Forbes article.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:18 - ID#20748)
Inflation ?
All : There is continous discussion of the effects of an iflationary or a deflationary enviroment on the price of gold. I happen to agree with Martin Armstrong who, supported by research of financial history going back to 1868, maintains that gold rises not as a hedge against mere inflation, but as a hedge against the unsound practices of the government and/or political uncertainty. "Steady rising inflation does not act as an underlying support mechanism for gold. Its role within the modern investment strategy is a hedge agaist political and economic uncertainty. Gold has always risen the MOST when the confidence in the government is at its LOWEST!"

It is no coincidence that the recent rise of POG occured on the day Yeltsin fired his entire cabinet. Wait until you see the effect on POG if a Presidential resignation or impeachment comes to pass.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:21 - ID#26669)
But look at the OTC market. I's still going up.^IXIC&d=t Methinks this might be a good one to watch too, waiting for the stall before the fall, if any. IMHO

(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:24 - ID#287358)


you'll always be the feel it, and we know it.
now, go back to your room.......and repeat after me.....

2-7-5......what happened?

is the cheek still rosy from the first cuff? another awaits.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:27 - ID#238295)
Bernatz: Where do you see gold going from here? I'm sure all on this would greatly value that information. I know that I would

Bully Beef
(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:28 - ID#259282)
I read a treatise by George Soros about capitalism and I think ....
He belongs to the'L' camp. Bob I'm sorry for calling you a Liberal...and I take back all that stuff about me being one.....How about those Montreal Canadiens...? Uh....Ronald Regan was the best Prez....and Conservatives have better sex...they just don't smile...and How do you know a conservative has had an orgasm? He/she drops her balance sheet. I don't care.I'm buying more!

(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:30 - ID#247309)
Allen - EURO/Y2K/OIL
With a gold backed EURO vs a $5 trillion debt backed dollar, perhaps gold and oil will abandon the $. Which will be worth more/anything on 01/01/00?
The following are some of my THOTS - not too clear on this hiding gold scenario. The "Beirut Agreement" set up a mechanism whereby a pricing structure could be implemented. That is - how to pay the $ for oil and how to pay the gold for oil. The mechanism is the CBs, who acted as the enforcer of the Agreement.
Logical, since the CBs were already indirectly bankrolling the mining companies who controlled the source of gold. CBs don't want to sell. CB worked deal through the mining co whereby the mining co pledged forward gold production as collateral for cash. When mined, the pledge was redeemed by delivery of the gold as long as the current price of gold was less than the loan amount. If the market price of gold was higher, CB rolled the loan. CB would then orchestrate a CB sale and drive the price down, thus ensuring delivery the next time aroune. CB would direct delivery to be made to oil nation or to third party internediary in exchange for third party paper.
The paper was nice because it could be used as interim asset/etc. Logically, then, why not issue paper ( against CB gold reserves ) directly for interim needs, just like mining co. Use LBMA as clearing house.
With falling gold prices, no problem covering the uncovered gold paper. Simply roll it over - make the deal slightly sweeter - hey, the price is down, wait until its up and we'll add 5%. Worked until the paper wound up in hands of big trader who demanded delivery against paper NOW. Thus, two edged sword - how to buy gold to cover without increasing the price and hence compounding problem.
Original deal worked great. Pay $19 in cash/derivatives/whatever. Pay $11 in gold "valued" at $1,000 per ounce. The $11 on that basis equaled one third of market price. CB's fee, aside from mining co interest fees, received from repurchasing US$ at discount. Oil producer happy because cash cow consumers not hurt. CB happy because can make 1% per annum loan to mining co. Mining co thinks gold is valued in $ set by market...
With falling prices for oil, the $ part of the equation evaporated, hence the uproar from ME countries about the short term effects on their economies. Now oil price must move up.
Gold price must also move up. Since the profit from the $ repurchase is drying up with cheap prices, the lease/loan rates have to go up.....
If you think I'm making any sense so far, let me know and I'll send more later.
THE POINT of all this is...the CBs lost control of the short game to big traders who caught on and drove the price too far. One reason the ERUO is coming is to compete internationally with the $. If the EURO itself is backed in part by gold ( 15%? ) , the me producer maybe can be induced to switch from the $ ( no gold backing ) to the EURO ( part gold backing ) . The dollar gets hammered, EURO increases in value, and maybe by some miracle gold can be kept reasonably priced. At least it has to go to $320 to $360 to increase production!
BIG SELLING POINT - introduce EURO right before Y2K problem destroys accounting system for a $5 trillion debt.
Wouldn't it be nice to see one of the gold script documents or the Beirut agreement or any other document lending substantive credence to any of this dialogue?
Off to the pub for some real inspiration!

Mr. Mick
(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:31 - ID#345321)
EU has 11 countries - for those that don't already know......
Wednesday March 25 4:18 PM EST

EU Signals 11 States to Launch Euro Currency

By Ian Geoghegan

BRUSSELS, Belgium ( Reuters ) - Eleven European Union countries were declared fit Wednesday to
launch a single currency that officials hope will guarantee Europe its place among the world's greatest
economic powers.

"This is an important epoch that will decisively influence our country, the European Union and the
world," said German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, the architect of Europe's economic and monetary
union ( EMU ) .

French President Jacques Chirac called the approval the start of a new era. "We are giving ourselves
a monetary tool which ... will be one of the most important in the world," he told reporters.

European Commission President Jacques Santer predicted the euro, as the currency to be used by
300 million people from Lisbon to Helsinki will be called, will join the ranks of the world's leading

"There will be a stability zone incorporating the euro, the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen," Santer
told the European Parliament.

In separate reports, the EU's executive commission and the European Monetary Institute said
Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal
and Spain had made enough economic progress to join EMU's first wave, although the EMI voiced
lingering doubts.

The EMI, the forerunner to a future European Central Bank, was more critical than the European
Commission about some states' public finances, raising worries about whether Italy would be stable

But Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi declared Italy had reached its goal of joining EMU, saying:
"We have achieved the objective we set ourselves from the first day of our government."

Financial markets took the reports in their stride, with European bonds holding firm and major
currencies mostly stable.

The EMI said progress toward economic union had advanced considerably since 1996 but warned
that further steps were still needed in most countries.

"Within the context of a single monetary policy, the adjustments seen over the recent past need to be
carried substantively further," it said.

Santer praised EU nations for curbing their debts and their budget deficits, proclaiming: "A Europe
that does something like this is a Europe that can win, a Europe that can move into the 21st century
with confidence."

But he acknowledged that while the euro's launch on Jan. 1, 1999, appeared set, officials still faced
a hard job convincingpeople to give up their beloved national currencies.

"We need to make much more effort ... to get the euro accepted by our citizens. It's absolutely vital
that the man in the street, the consumer, sees the euro as being in his or her interest.

"The euro is not an end in itself. It's an instrument at the service of the citizen, of a strong economy,
jobs and the international status of the Union," he said.

EU nations, worried about economic competition from Asia and the Americas, forged plans for a
single currency to make their economies more efficient and competitive.

Britain and Denmark have opted to stay out of EMU for now, while Sweden has decided not to join
from the start even though it has no formal opt-out. Greece has said it will not be ready to join until

(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:32 - ID#225273)
Question on Japan?
To all:

The exceeding pessimism about Japan and its imminent collapse reminds me of three things: ( 1 ) the pessimism about the U.S. dollar in April 1995, ( 2 ) the pessimism about gold in January 1998, and, ( 3 ) the pessimism about oil one week ago.
I could add ( 4 ) pessimism about corn in October 1985, but most here couldn't relate to that.
In short, I doubt there will be a collapse. But look more for a rally in both yen and Nikkei based on the prevailing sentiment.

Happy trading,

The Preacher

(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:39 - ID#269409)
@ DA
Appreciated your treatise on money supply yesterday. Excellent layman's language explanation. Good thing it's copyrighted or USAGlob would snag it and sell it!

Go silver!

(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:42 - ID#269409)
@ Preacher...Japan
The excessive pessimism re Japan's imminent collapse reminds me of....the excessive pressimism re Japan's imminint collapse as expressed here weekly for 2 years straight! Remember when a break below Nikkei 15,000 was supposed to mean total meltdown within a day or two? What happened? Nada! Same with the Bank scandals, Govt. official scandals, et al.

Not much changes here at Kitco.....

(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:45 - ID#26793)
Add the Dow/Gold Ratio to your key reversal list for Monday.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:48 - ID#286279)

(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:56 - ID#26793)
FOMC ignored 34 requests for interest rate increases in 1997 by FRB branches

(Wed Mar 25 1998 18:57 - ID#269191)
The next stage in the crisis.
I agree that the Asian stage of the monetary crisis is behind us.
Asia is being bailed-out not by the IMF but by the massive expansion
of the U.S. current account deficit. The current account deficit will
gradually erode U.S. growth, lead to renewed trade tension and efforts to lower the dollar. Dollar depreciation will lead to stagflation and
perhaps later to outright deflation.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:01 - ID#317193)
Such shyness. Come now, tell all the folk what you realy think of this site. What do you think Japan and perhaps China will do to preserve their existance considering the economic problems facing them? Can old enemies realy join forces? Is the west such a threat to cause centuries of hatred to be subdued? Does gold bind these nations as never before? Tom

(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:03 - ID#248234)
Preacher on Japan collapse
Preacher is right to be sceptical re 'immanent Japan collapse.' Reason? Japan collapsed in 1991. W/o political change JPN joins North Korea and Cuba as the remaining unrestructured Cold War client states. No collapse, but no recovery in sight either.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:05 - ID#26793)
Argument continues about pricing derivatives to market.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:17 - ID#26793)
Year 2000 glitch won't go away

(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:19 - ID#340302)
...and you are all aspiring young stockbrokers at boot training camp over at Merrill Lynch, Paine Webber, Prudential, etc.

Your teachers apprise you of the cold hard facts. The American investing public got its ass kicked in 1987...they hate the stockmarket...they hate stockbrokers...they hate you!

The American economy looks like crap...the economic engine sputters fitfully but refuses to fire up and get into gear.

Your teachers emphasize that the average American does not like to invest in the markets when everything around him looks awful. So, in order to get the bull going, all economic negatives must either be ignored or viewed from a positive perspective.

There will be no negativity about America accepted inside the stockbroker
training class!!

Gentlemen...the collusion between the major investment brokers of America back then represents a stroke of genius on their part. The creation of a de facto mutual funds cartel...nothing less than a stroke of genius.

Now, it is time for goldbugs to adopt the same ideology.

Remember....there is nothing negative going on in the gold markets.

Remember...that which can be perceived as a negative re: gold is in reality a positive.

Remember...once the gold bull kicks into gear, many equities and bond bulls will eagerly jump on the wagon. They are far too nervous at current stratospheric levels of their investments.

Most importantly, shout it loud and clear for all the Bernatz's to hear...



(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:21 - ID#252197)
want to buy some stamps
Talked with a coin and stamp dealer today. He

said that people are foolish not to be in the

stock market. He said it would be 10 to 15 years

before the market declined to any significant

degree. He said nobody was buying any gold or

silver these days.

Since this man was a coin dealer I was puzzled by

his remarks but when I discovered he wanted $325

for a k-rand his statements began to make sense to


(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:21 - ID#287358)

weekly chart for gold...miles to go before she sleeps.......

time for more options.......the sellers have to feed their children!

(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:25 - ID#26793)
Problems in Japan
Since 1990 Japan only had to deal with its own internal problems. Starting in July it received an additional burden as its Asian investments went sour. It has yet to deal with its greatest burden which is the soon to occur collapse of European and North American markets and the resultant loss of its current best customers. I do not yet see a light at the end of the Japanese tunnel

(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:25 - ID#253153)
What is next ?
In terms of cycles, we had out runaway inflationary phase between
1966-1982. Following it, we had a disinflationary phase between 1982-1997. Now we are entering runaway deflationary phase which will last for many years to come. What shall we do ?
1. Buy bonds ( US treasuries and AAA corp ) for income. During runaway deflationary , unemployment will rise, businesses will go bankrupt and all commodities and real estate will decline in value.
2. Buy senior GOLD STOCKS for appreciation and income.
3. Buy Gold coins.
4. Gold is the best HEDGE against runaway deflation ( for many reasons such as political chaos,defaults, safety, etc ) .
4. The price will GOLD will SKYROCKET.
5. SILVER is OK, it's not prime . Gold is prime. Remember, During this phase the demand for SILVER will decline, but I do think that SILVER will be OK.
6. Pray a lot .

bernatz du ventadorm
(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:25 - ID#182192)
cherrytwat, don't you hate people who hang
around only to read their own posts? It's like
people who look at their excrement before it
waves goodbye. You were packing for
Vegas and then all of a sudden you are able
to pretend to dis me when you are so stupid
you forget to recognize that I was making
fun of myself in my last post. Are you daft?
Are you so thick headed that you can't see
satire? Did you graduate from college?
Are you a wanker? Why are people telling
me I didn't make the correct call? Did
gold somehow slip under $277.25? Did I not
call the bottom and then tell people I
would make another correct call when the
time warranted. Did I not say that how
far gold rose above $277.25 was up to you?
Do you not look stupid, worshipping your
false gods and spewing the same tired crap
about "Oh, the economy of Minorca is on
the fritz and the world economy revolves
around Minorca" or "Oh, the mayor of Saipan
was caught with his hand in his pants and
everyone knows that ANOTHER said that when
the mayor of Saipan was caught with his hand
in his pants it meant the imminent destruction
of the economy of Minorca, and you know what
that means."

Hey everyone at Kitco!!!!

Could you please pull your heads out
of your well-rested asses? Stop bitching
about CNBC and get out and interact with
the world.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:25 - ID#269409)
@ James2
Coin dealers are well noted for being ignorant, out of touch, fools...and I say this even though I happoen to be a coin dealer as a sideline.... ( no gallery comments )

(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:26 - ID#269409)
Interesting analyst comments this time
NY precious metals end lower on good volume

NEW YORK, March 25 ( Reuters ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended lower
across the board Wednesday, with gold seeing another day of high volume.

``There's been good producer activity in gold lately, with some buybacks offset this week by some
Australian hedging,'' said Refco economist James Steel.

COMEX June gold, now the active contract, ended down $0.50 at $301.30 an ounce after trading
from $302.60 to $300.00.

COMEX volume was estimated at a high 65,000 lots, after another large fall in open interest
Tuesday of 15,155 lots to 172,915 lots, reflecting fund shortcovering and the impact of the
April/June roll.

In the bullion market, spot gold ended quoted $298.80/30 compared to the London Wednesday
afternoon fix at $299.25 and the New York close Tuesday around $299.40/90.

Implied gold lease rates were little changed around 1.65 pct for one month and 1.90 pct for 12

The focus in the gold market remains on what role gold will play in the planned European Central
Bank's reserves when decisions are made in May, analysts said.

``While the dollar, the euro and the yen will be the most important currencies in the world for
some time to come, it would be a mistake to ignore the role of gold,'' said Robert Mundell,
professor of economics at Columbia University, writing in the ``Wall Street Journal'' Wednesday.

``Gold is currently the second most important reserve asset,'' he said.

``Europe may find that its gold holdings have a hitherto unnoticed use in building confidence in the

Meanwhile, COMEX May silver ended down 14.5 cents at $6.190 an ounce, after seeing a three
week high at $6.510 Tuesday.

But COMEX warehouse silver stocks fell 1.030,883 ounces to 89,917,523 ounces in Tuesday
night's data.

In the bullion market, spot silver ended quoted $6.24/27, compared to the London Wednesday fix
at $6.33.80, and the New York close Tuesday around $6.41/44.

In the physical market, silver's forward price curve remained in backwardation and one month
lease rates remained high around 11.00 pct.

``Silver's bounce looks to be fading again, as last week's report hyping the potential for increased
silver demand for battery use starts to fade from memory,'' Refco's Steel said.

Last week a research report suggested the potential demand for silver-zinc battery technology may
be one reason why U.S. billionaire Warren Buffett bought 129.7 million ounces of silver in recent
months. Buffett indirectly has an equity stake in battery maker Duracell.

But a Duracell spokesman Tuesday said Duracell was not involved in developing such technology.

``Many batteries, both rechargeable and non-rechargeable, are manufactured with silver alloys as
the cathode,'' according to the Washington DC-based Silver Institute's annual silver survey.

``Although expensive, silver cells have superior power-to-weight characteristics than their
competitors and the most common these batteries is the small button shaped silver oxide cell
( approximately 35 pct silver by weight ) used in watches, cameras and similar electrical products.''

Demand for silver for use in batteries and electronics rose 8.6 pct in 1997, according to industry
consultants, CPM Group in New York. NYMEX April platinum ended down $7.80 at $403.00 an
ounce, after seeing a six month high at $423.50 Tuesday.

``Both platinum and palladium saw some heavy selling on TOCOM overnight and have had a good
run up on the lack of Russian supplies, but you'd have to buy platinum again once it got back to
around $400, at least while the Russians are still absent from the market,'' Refco's Steel said.
NYMEX June palladium ended down $11.20 at $263.25, after seeing a new contract high Tuesday
at $281.35.

Spot palladium prices in the physical market fixed at a new 18 year high at $295.00 in London

Lease rates for spot palladium for one month remained around 30 pct annually Wednesday, while
the rate for platinum for one month was around 10 pct.

In industry news, a decree on setting export quotas for Russian platinum group metals is expected
to be issued imminently, Alexander Livshits, deputy chief of the presidential staff on economic
issues said on Wednesday.

Russian exports of platinum group metals have been held up so far this year because no state order
on export quotas has been signed.

Russian supplies about 60 pct of the world's palladium and about 20 pct of its platinum

(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:29 - ID#287358)

'another' longer term look at gold----

what does....

'for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction' i newton

have to do with it????

(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:30 - ID#340302)
...ranting and raving like a lunatic in heat but...



(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:32 - ID#26669)
F* that's why they call this phase of the market the ACCUMULATION phase, IMHO

(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:32 - ID#287358)


(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:34 - ID#269409)
@ Cherokee & Hepcat, bitch slapping each other
Say what you will about his caustic manner...but Hepcat has certainly been accurate on his calls about 99.99% more often than Cherokee...and is no more annoying in his posting style ( IMHO ) .

Now Hep, why don't you silence your critics by giving a substantive explanation of the rationale behind your Gold calls and mellowing out?

Lurker 777
(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:41 - ID#317247)
18,000 by Tuesday!
Japan Nikkei 225 7:41PM 17057.54 +399.20 +2.40%

(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:42 - ID#256326)
surely you jest. the gentleman in question was asked to do that 18 months ago and more at this site. one theory at that time was that his coin shop friends didn't want him to.

Bully Beef
(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:45 - ID#260119)
Can you say lithium Mr. Ventadorm? What's the spot price?
I suggest when you leave the trading floor take a walk... have a beer... get a "tickle me Elmo", buy a puppy...listen to Barry Manilo and do all the other things that chill "A" type personalities.Make a call for tommorrow ...if it's 20% of what you say I 'll be mildly

bernatz du ventadorm
(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:45 - ID#182192)
aurophile, do you live in Santa Fe or Albuquerque?
Cause I sure can't find a Ted Drake in either location,
and as gd famous as you are you should be somewhere.
Thanks for shutting down my e-mail account at UNC.
We wouldn't want this site corrupted by someone
who disagreed with your inflation/deflation nonsense
that you post day after day after day.

Lurker 777
(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:45 - ID#317247)
$285 by Wednesday
Kitco GOLD 298.65 299.15 -0.15 -0.05%

bernatz du ventadorm
(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:47 - ID#182192)
Or a Tom Drake alumnus of Carnegie-Mellon, for that matter
Great call on gold these past two years.
What are you, unemployed?


bernatz du ventadorm
(Wed Mar 25 1998 19:55 - ID#182192)
aurophile, when I find you I'm going to
kiss you, give you a big, sloppy wet kiss.

Do you know what that means? Do you?


I don't care, I'm bsing more
I don't care, I'm bsing more
I don't care, I'm bsing more

(Wed Mar 25 1998 20:00 - ID#318118)
Is anyone besides me not receiving e-mail alerts on PM's from Kitco. It must have been their fire or something because my alerts just stopped about the same time last week.

Bill El Zebub
(Wed Mar 25 1998 20:04 - ID#261352)
@ Bob M 17:13 ...If productivity starts to slow in the US and labor costs increase
what then? Does the inflation spiral begin in the US?Do the European
and Asian markets begin the growth cycle the US has enjoyed,
predicated on technology?Does the Middle East participate in this
expansion promising stable oil prices? What are the consequences
of all the puzzle parts not coming together?What will the US
do to make sure they don't loose their technological competitive
edge?A direct comparison to the PAST performances of US auto
makers.Sorry I'm just ranting.

Bully Beef
(Wed Mar 25 1998 20:05 - ID#260119)
RYO up 25% tommorrow.
There I put out my neck.Buy low ( today ) .Sell high ( fri. ) Never look back.Never become emotionally envolved. Simple trade ,simple win.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 20:17 - ID#26793)
Moves afoot in Venezuela to establish currency board. Fad du jour?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 20:23 - ID#20748)
Try this.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 20:30 - ID#238422)
Bully Beef
Hey, not bad, $120 mil. financing...
Smart guys who bought at 5/8.
Suckers who sold at 5/8.
Still a long way to go, but...hope is there.
Good for now.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 20:30 - ID#225273)
Market Comments
To all:

Gold has now remained above its 100-day MA for three closes. That hasn't happened since last October. It has not made a move toward its 200-day MA yet, but is retracing toward the top of its 100 -day to "kiss" the line. Hopefully, it won't make it that far down ( $294.70 ) . But with the weak close in the XAU today, it is possible.
I look for a turn by Friday afternoon and for gold to have a strong weekly close. In a bull move, you always want to see the close in the upper half of the range.

In the XAU a 2/3 retracement of the Mon-Tues move would take it down to the 73.20 level or so. We don't want to see that broken or this run could start breaking down.

I don't want to say more than needs to be said. We're holding our own here. If we've got a bull move in gold, it needs to prove itself. We've seen three moves to $300 or higher. So what? It's got to give us more for this to be real. I still favor the long side to the $316-$323 level.

Happy trading,

The Preacher

(Wed Mar 25 1998 20:38 - ID#280245)
Prof. "D" this morning,. Prof. "K" this evening--an economic battle of a kind!
South China Morning Post 3/26/98-- Krugman launches broadside on Hanke

Professor Paul Krugman yesterday did much to bolster his reputation as one of the world's cleverest, if most combative, economists.Having verbally shaped up to several of the best brains in the discipline over the years, the professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ( MIT ) chose the Credit Suisse First Boston conference as the venue to take the gloves off with his present foe.

The target of a couple of deftly executed jabs was Steve Hanke, professor of applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, who has in recent months gained notoriety as the world's most outspoken supporter of currency boards to stabilise exchange-rate movements in developing countries.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 20:42 - ID#431263)
Foreigners now 15-20% invested in US. Normal around 5%! Once dollar shows signs of tanking they will sell the hell out of their US holdings and then we'll see how out of touvh with reality this market really is!

(Wed Mar 25 1998 20:45 - ID#255190)
It means you have not been taking your medication. Its time to get back on schedule. We appreciate you when you are not so nasty.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 20:47 - ID#411112)
farfel,had to smile,I went through broker boot camp,the last thing they do is teach you the market
believe me that is the easy part,what the GDP don't understand, a broker today and yesterday,the successful ones,do have a lot in common......hard work,long hours,thick be successful when you are a rookie means a hundred calls a day,lots of rejection,little money,big money comes later when you have built a book ( clients ) you are there at the door I'am a broker....only to find that market info means nothing your job ,as they tell in the RA RA morning meeting is to sell there recomendations....and to think there are thousands of these folks out there every day it's no wonder the market moves higher for no reason,now if these guys were pushing would be $5000.00

(Wed Mar 25 1998 20:47 - ID#348127)
Theory # A17653478948

Gold price will not rocket to the levels that many are looking for until EU makes it's inivitable announcement that they will be backing currency with gold. I am always trying to make sense out of thngs that make no sense. Now it only goes to reason that the buyer of all that rcently sold European gold would be ---well da

(Wed Mar 25 1998 20:50 - ID#287358)
Belgium Sale?
Info that central banks had bought the gold holdings sold by Belgium. Report states that the purchase is a positive for gold.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 20:50 - ID#317193)
I love it when the children get excited. Tom

(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:03 - ID#222231)


Growth of M3 Portends Faster Nominal GDP Growth

The now rapid creation of liquidity, as approximated by the M3 monetary
aggregate, suggests that US bond yields are more likely to be higher, as
opposed to lower, 12 months hence. Bonds have usually not been very good
longer-term investments when the year-to-year growth of the M3 monetary
aggregate well exceeds the corresponding growth of current-dollar GDP. Bond
yields tend to follow current-dollar GDP growth and the faster growth of M3
relative to nominal GDP has more often than not presaged a steeper climb by
nominal GDP.

Starting with the first quarter of 1960 and ending with the final quarter of 1996,
the year-to-year growth of the M3 monetary aggregate has exceeded the
accompanying yearly growth of nominal GDP on 79 occasions. For 54, or 68%,
of the quarterly incidents of faster M3 growth relative to nominal GDP growth,
the year-to-year growth of nominal GDP would climb higher four quarters hence.

For example, during the final quarter of 1986, the 9% year-to-year growth of M3
exceeded the corresponding 5% climb of nominal GDP by an ample four
percentage points. By the final quarter of 1987, the yearly growth of nominal
GDP had risen to 7.4%.

The wider is the gap between M3 growth and nominal GDP growth, the more
likely is it that the yearly growth of nominal GDP will climb higher over the
next four quarters. For 27 of the 28 occasions since 1960s first quarter when
the yearly growth of M3 exceeded the corresponding rise of nominal GDP by at
least three percentage points, nominal GDP growth would be faster four
quarters hence.

In the final quarter of 1997, the 8.9% year-to-year growth of M3 bettered the
accompanying 5.6% rise of nominal GDP by 3.3 percentage points. The now
much faster rise of M3 relative to current-dollar GDP warns against taking an
especially bullish position on bonds. When M3 growth was last this far above
nominal GDP growth in the first quarter of 1987, the average 10-year Treasury
yield would ascend from the 7.19% of 1987s first quarter to the 9.12% of 1987s
final quarter.

For the 79 incidents of M3 growth outrunning nominal GDP growth, the median
excess of M3 growth over nominal GDP growth was 2.09 percentage points.
Among the 39 observations above the median, M3 growth outpaced nominal
GDP growth by 4.09 percentage points, on average, while the yearly growth of
nominal GDP four quarters later would rise by 2.39 percentage points, on
average. In 32, or 82%, of the 39 quarters where M3 growth topped nominal GDP
growth by at least 2.09 percentage points, nominal GDP growth would quicken
over the next four quarters. The latest difference between M3 growth and GDP
growth unequivocally tops this median.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:06 - ID#31868)
If money were gold and silver and paper represented that gold and silver we would not need all these intellectual economists. And if banks and the payment system were seperated all of this mess would go away.

Politicians, bankers, economists and intellectuals, ah what a wonderful world they have never created.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:07 - ID#224149)
Piggy Power
Mike Sheller Best I could Find Gold December 31 1974 9:45 EST New York ---Pork bellies September 18 1961 Chicago 8:45 CDT ---Now we can do the Piggy thing ---Away to check the Titanic Belly Up

(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:08 - ID#348286)
Big news coming tomorrow. Jean Charest is expected to anounce his candidacy for the liberal party of Quebec.
By most accounts, the job is his, and the polls show that he would unseat the Separatist Leader Lucifer Bouchard in the next election.
Big news in that the main overhang on the Canadian dollar is the separatist threat in Quebec.
The CAD should rally significantly on his announcement, with more gains to come if the polls keep confirming his widespread popularity here
( latest was 50% Lib / 39% Separatist ) .
Canadian buck may finally be a buy........

(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:15 - ID#401237)

One Year Chart^XAU&d=1y

Pretty Steady


(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:19 - ID#269245)
chevy (and all), in response to the article.
To quote:
When news of Belgium's sale of 299 tons emerged last week, gold fell below $290. Investec Securities gold analyst Dean Cunningham said the fact that the Belgian gold was bought by other central banks, presumably by Asian ones, was seen as "extremely positive".
I agree only that the sale was bullish, however I would be interested to know what makes this analyst believe the sale was made "to" other CB's and to label it as fact. If my memory serves, the origonal report indicated the sale was made "through" ( not "to" ) five CB's. I would claim that this analyst either knows something we don't ( and knows specifically what banks they were sold "to" ) or he has made an error in his basic assumptions. Any thoughts by the group would be appreciated. - c

(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:23 - ID#23398)
Miss Peg got US 120 million financing from Trilon Financial of Toronto. Wander what she gave up. Should be interesting tomorrow

(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:23 - ID#42365)
public debt up a bill in 2 days... todays update isnt there, Hrmm I wonder if they work overtime
calculating our debt, therefore actually contributing to the outflow?

03/23/1998 $5,539,832,909,123.38
03/20/1998 $5,538,571,184,190.64
03/19/1998 $5,537,630,079,097.83

(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:24 - ID#280245)
Yet anothet battlefield--this, clearly staked out, lines drawn
Turkish Islamists
FT Mar 25, 1998
Turkey's PM promised a new government assualt on Islamist

The prime minister promised that the authorities would keep a close eye on the Islamists FINANCES..."

(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:25 - ID#270236)
M3 growth and inflation.
Whether rapid M3 growth will produce higher inflation depends on the
demand for money. In our overindebted world the demand for money to
service debt and for cash balances has tended to increase along with
the supply of dollars thus dampening inflation. So don't necessarily

expect higher money supply to produce higher inflation. No less
a luminary than Milton Friedman kept predicting a return to high
inflation in the 80's because of double digit money supply growth.
He turned out to be wrong because he failed to take the demand for
money into account.

My own thinking is that the demand for dollars will not increase
as rapidly as the supply for the rest of the 90's because soaring
trade deficits and the corresponding slower real U.S. economic growth
will restrict the demand for dollars. Also the Euro's introduction
will give the dollar some competition for the role of reserve currency
thus diminishing demand for the dollar. Therefore the odds of getting
higher inflation from this latest surge in money growth are better than
in the recent past.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:37 - ID#86291)
Y2K: Problems at the Telecom Industry
My great passion is gold and the analysis of global financial markets. The problem is my alter ego: he/she works as a computer expert in the telecommunication industry. I wanted to share his/her Y2K assessment with you.
What makes Y2K compliancy testing so complicated is the simple recognition and acceptance that you need a completely seperate hardware/operating system environment in order to test your application. Note: you must manipulate the system date from Nov./Dec. 1999 to Jan./Feb./2000 in order to find out how your application behaves in this time frame.
You cannot test your application in parallel to ongoing production activities or test activities for ongoing development, because the manipulation of the system date would crash all date sensitive applications which require the present date/time stamp. So you must buy a computer or several computers to run your Y2K compliacy tests. To get approval from senior management for these purchases costs quite a bit of convincing effort. So far, this problem is not typical for the telecommunication industry. It is typical for any industry, including banking, electrical power whatsoever.
Now a brief look at telecommunication technology:
No matter whether you transmit by fiber optic cables or by satellite, to build the adequate test environment in which you can manipulate your system date in every component and every chip in every component in a synchronized manner: that's the real nightmare. It is relatively simple to test application software on one computer under the conditions of a manipulated system date. But to do this in a complex hardware/software environment where many components are switched in a row and each single component's failure crashes the whole circuit: that's the first challenge. And listen what this first challenge means if you get it done: you have built a model, you dont mirror the real world nor do you test the real world.
To test the public switched network ( PSN ) or all the PSNs worldwide, is impossible. That means: all the PSNs worldwide will remain untested. Only single components ( encoders, decoders, compressors, decompressors, modems, transmit terminals, receive terminals, scramblers, descramblers and so on and on and on ) will be tested and model scenarios can be tested. The real PSNs will remain untested. Good luck 1st January of Y2K.
That's what my alter ego is telling me.
Don't blame me for it.
I prefer gold and the analysis of the golbal financial markets.
I am Alberich the Dwarf.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:38 - ID#372180)
Money Flows
Does anyone know if this is part of a continuing slowing of money flows into mutuals?

NEW YORK, March 25 ( Reuters ) - U.S. stock funds took in an estimated $339 million in the two days ended March 23 for a monthly rate of $3.7 billion, according to mutual fund flow tracking services Mutual Fund Trim Tabs.
This compared to estimated inflows of $3.96 billion in the previous three days ended March 19, Trim Tabs said.

Aggressive growth funds lost an estimated $607 million in the two-day period after taking in an estimated $685 million in the previous period, it said.

Growth funds took in $125 million in the two days after taking in $1.90 billion in the prior period, and growth and income funds took in $743 million after previous inflows of $1.25 billion, the group said.

International funds took in an estimated $674 million in the two day period after prior inflows of $1.91 billion, it said. All stock funds, including international funds, received $1.01 billion after prior inflows of $5.87 billion.

Bond funds received an estimated $540 million after prior inflows of $938 million, it said. High yield bond funds took in $143 million after inflows of $480 million.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:45 - ID#411112)
ALBERICH,so what is it that you actually do,and could you repeat that in Webtv terms(all I know in

is point and shot )

Steve in TO__A
(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:49 - ID#209265)
The scenario you posted will happen if the US gov't ( it seems that's who they're talking about ) is able to keep expanding M3 *and* maintain confidence.

In the early 1990's Japan kept trying to boost liquidity by lowering interest rates- and they got them down to less than 1%, as close to zero as you can go, and it didn't do any good. The stock market continued down until 3/4 of its value was gone, the banks were saddled with tons of bad debt that they tried to hide while they scambled around trying to figure out discrete, off-the-books methods to repay or consolidate the debt.

This is exactly what Hoover tried to do during the early years of the Depression in the US- and it didn't do any good then either. The stock market continued down until it had lost 80% of its value by 1932. Banks couldn't hide their bad paper in the America of the 1930's, and there was a rash of bank failures.

Boosting or contracting the "M's" by injecting or withdrawing liquidity is the way central banks think they can control and stabilize the economy, but as the Americans in the early 30's and the Japanes in the early 90's discovered- it's possible for the economy to start to violently contract in an implosion that can't be reversed even by negative real interest rates, i.e. rates lower than the rate of inflation. Of course, in this situation deflation quickly takes hold, and real interest rates become positive. To stimulate you'd have to introduce negative interest rates- an impossibility!

Deflation may be injected from elsewhere. Deflation is happening right now in the ASEAN countries. The US is pressuring Japan to inject liquidity, but the Japanese deficit is already unsustainable- they're paying 22% of their tax receipts to interest on the national debt already. It would take them years to climb out of debt, even if they balanced their budget right now. They owe 1.5X their current GDP already!

How could they raise enough money to liquify if they don't inflate by borrowing more money? By selling off their US treasury debt, but the US is pressuring them to not do that. If countries like Japan start to sell massive amounts of US debt- the Fed will have to raise interest rates- and guess what- that will drive down the M3 along with all the other M's! Higher interest rates will drive the markets down, and Mr. WJC knows that the only thing keeping him in office is "the economy, stupid."

You may have heard about W. Clinton's appointees in various Federal agencies fudging data to try to buoy confidence in the economy, and you may have heard about Treasury Secretary Rubin's strong-arm tactics on the Japanese to keep them from selling their US debt. Now you know why they're doing this.


(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:49 - ID#344206)
Just have a hunch mind you, going to be a nice looking day for Gold as it is getting very close to about time.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:49 - ID#31868)
When he is done can you explain point and shot?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:51 - ID#269245)
Pete (and all), in response to your article...
The numbers and trend offered in your article are indeed inflationary indicators. I would like to add, however, that we should not see marked inflation until investors overseas find confidence in their own currencies. As mentioned in another's ( someone else ) earlier post, there is still a huge demand for the Dollar soaking up the supply. Whenever that demand reverses is more likely when we will see inflation - might not even be 'till the Euro. Meanwhile, expect both imports and domestic products ( esp. computers, cars ) to get cheaper, and cheaper, and cheaper... - c

(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:52 - ID#348286)
@Here's a nice one day-er.........
Last Trade 10:32AM  4118.95 Change +877.86 ( +27.09% )

(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:55 - ID#60253)

Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 14:31, PH in LA ,

Part of the problem for last night was on my end. Two of my post held at one computer and were sent to europe. I will no longer try to converse on a quick basis as the thought is lost over time. Will address individual posts as able. Some writers offer much thought, but I am unable to speak of each. The Peat does do much!

Date: Tue Mar 24 1998 21:23 Thomas ( Doubts ) ID#372400:

I would agree that the idea of oil-exporters demands to provide gold

as payment for oil is not impossible, provided that Another is right on a major assumption -- that oil-exporters have the control to dictate oil prices. he game looks rather plausible -- oil-exporters keep prices low to make stronger the future shock of huge price increases. 

Sir, Producers do not create the price for oil, the world economy does. Producers can and do controll one thing, full production! They hold the controll to offer all out supply and the $4.00 price that would bring! THAT controll is all that is needed to create correct political and economic conditions. What creates your future shock of

huge price increases? A currency system that no longer values real things on equal basis to preceived value of economic trade!

Also, you write,

If some "very simple minded" people in oil-exporting countries decide to blackmail West with oil -- what would be the outcome?

Sir, I offer you my posts of past, if this is blackmail, I should think your army would be sent to enforce such!

Date: Sat Jan 17 1998 22:22 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:


Date: Sat Jan 17 1998 22:06

Schultz ( ANOTHER ) ID#288349:

Schultz, Your view is a good one. The perception of the US is one of your

view from where you stand. Many do not hold America as a taker without

cause. At a low ratio of gold per barrel, with gold priced high enough, the USA would no doubt receive oil, relative to today at perhaps $8.00. The Us gold reserve and in ground reserve would last a great while. Also, the US gold reserve value would increase a great deal!

That, your Washington would understand, VERY WELL!

Date: Sat Jan 17 1998 22:07



Date: Sat Jan 17 1998 21:35

Tyler Rose ( ANOTHER ) ID#373164:

If, as you say, a major oil producer were to say that they value oil at $x per barrel, and we will take payment 1/2 in dollars or eurodollars and 1/2 in gold, then it would be to the benefit of that oil producer to "value" gold aslow as possible, in order that they would receive more gold for the 1/2 of the payment in gold.

Tyler Rose:

At this point of time the drive would be to make a usable currency. Thiswould require a high value for gold. For gold to trade with oil on a physical basis would also require perhaps a small fraction of gold/bl.

All would gain from this. The intent is not to destroy the oil market.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:55 - ID#210235)
@Alberich, Allen and friends
Dear friends, we share a dirty little secret, don't we? I was working in the computer industry back in the early 80's. We who were there know that the programs written in those good old days were obscure and difficult to read - even the next day by the person who wrote them. Usually proper explanations were omitted.

Staff turnover was great, with code passing from hand to hand before it was implemented. The routine method of correcting disasters was to logically figure out the difference between the erroneous answer spit out by the software, and create a FIX for it. 2 + 2 = 5? 3 + 2 = 6? No problem. Can't read the code, so we wrote a fix that added "1" to all the sums. Often projects went on for years, becoming more disorganized until one BIG ANONYMOUS bank brought in a Librarian to head their electronic banking system ( ATM ) project, and try to make some sense of it, two years into its creation. Oh yes, and what did she discover? Write-only code, as it was commonly called. Almost completely undocumented and virtually indeciperable.

Now, today, some people actually think that programmers who don't even use those languages anymore can go back and decipher and correct millions of lines of it! So you ( and I ) realize the magnitude of the problem and try to inform others, who believe you are a fear-monger!

I will view Auckland's recent problem beginnning February 20 as the model of what may come. We will be well-stocked, not only with firewood for the fireplace insert, clean water supplies, etc. Why take a chance?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:56 - ID#286199)
Steve in TO_A
What Hoover did not do was print money and use it to buy S&P futures. There is a thread of thought here that the current denizens of D.C. are piping the inflation straight into the market.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 21:58 - ID#210235)
WHAT? BC's staff fudging data to boost confidence? I'm simply shocked and demand to know how you could suggest such a thing.

Actually, haven't heard of it, and would appreciate some elaboration.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 22:00 - ID#411112)
tolarnt1,I think also trying to understand that

Webtv is my new toy,it lets me watch TV and surf the has a remote's hooked up to my big screen.....however it does not function like a computer it's high tech for the other words ALBERICH spoke in high tech computer lingo.....I want to know what is going to blow up

(Wed Mar 25 1998 22:07 - ID#269245)
Pete, Steve, Alberich, DEJ, Tech
Perhaps the decision to increase money supply has partly been made to deter heavy deflation as the populus inevitably withdraws their cash ( those who don't go for gold ) in preparation for Y2K. The FED would be smart to raise the amount of cash the banks are required to keep on hand. -c

BTW: Pete, it's good to see you have returned ( belated ) .

The Hermit
(Wed Mar 25 1998 22:14 - ID#374232)
@ fundaMETAList - your 18:07
Dave Hall is moderator of the Society for Information Management Y2k Core Infrastructure Topic. His e-mail address is:

Hope this helps.

The Hermit

(Wed Mar 25 1998 22:14 - ID#401237)
30 Year Bond

Looks like the interest rates may be turning up.^TYX&d=5y^TYX&d=3m


The Hermit
(Wed Mar 25 1998 22:20 - ID#374232)
@ Myrimidon - your 11:11
Thank you for your comments. I do apologize for my callousness! I am duly chastened. I meant no offense.

Very Respectfully,

The Hermit

(Wed Mar 25 1998 22:22 - ID#341214)
The Hermit: Thanks for the address...
The Hermit: I'm going to see if Mr Hall can provide us with some additional info regarding the power plants that have shut down during Y2K testing.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 22:24 - ID#210235)
Re your question about the Y2K thing. It's all a modelling problem. Now, it's fairly easy to find out if your PC is Y2K compliant. Set the date ahead and watch what happens, then run each program you have installed at the new date. We can take components of big systems and do this for the programs that run them. Just buy a system that can serve as a model for your system, and run your programs on it.

But you can't test whole systems, because the chips are imbedded in all the stuff that's using it today. If you try to check a part of a working system by changing the date, you crash the whole system. It's not ( often ) possible to create a working model of even a significant segment of a working system, such as a telephone long-distance network. There is a lot of money, time, and personnel to allocate. You need to get the actual same makes and models of the hardware that are in the system. They were probably purchased over several years, possibly from several different vendors. Most of the hardware is no longer in stock ANYWHERE. Furthermore, finances are everywhere strapped.

It appears that the individual hardware components will have to first be examined to see if they have non-compliant chips. Every single non-compliant chip model will have to be remanufactured, with compliant chips then new chips will have to be manufactured to replace those that date problems. These will have to be put in place in these really big systems, all over the place.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 22:25 - ID#86291)
Dear Robnoel....
...I feel sorry that I might have confused you.
You ask spot and point what I am doing.
I am probably a split personality. Here I am Alberich the Dwarf,
greedy for gold and power, whatching the hoard of the Nibelungen, and knowing where it sank in the river Rhine. I always felt compelled by George Bernard Shaw's description of Alberich, how he watches for hours and hours the beatiful Rhine-maidens, how they dance around the gold reflecting the sun on the ground on the river. They dance around this beatiful golden reflection in their wonderful grace. And Alberich, with complete lack of understanding why they don't take it, the gold, why they only dance around it in their graceful innocence, completely lost in the eternal beauty of the golden reflecting light. Alberich wanted the gold for reasons of power. He only knew where the treasure was. He couldn't get to it. And the Rhain-maidens didn't even touch it in their innosence. G. B. Shaw's comment, after he drew this picture: "There are quite a few such dwarfs here in London."
I always liked this antagonism between the Rhain-maidens and the dwarf.
But as I said: my alter ego has managed the development of computer software since about 25 years. And since almost nine years he/she is engaged in a $1b company which serves international telecommunication.
My alter ego does nothing but keeping me away from my true passions which includes three worderful children, a very beatiful spouse, and a passion for gold and financial markets.
I cant help if this is confusing. To be confused about outside reality and inside myself is my permanent state of mind.
Alberich the Dwarf

(Wed Mar 25 1998 22:26 - ID#210235)
@Sorry!! Ignore that last post.
Wasn't ready to post that last, hit the wrong button. There are alternate solutions, but this isn't the place for them! I was going to DELETE it all. LETS TALK GOLD, SILVER, MARKETS.

Bye for now.

The Hermit
(Wed Mar 25 1998 22:28 - ID#374232)
@ fundaMETAList - your 22:22
A very good idea, Sir. Please let us know what you discover.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 22:32 - ID#210235)
As tangents go, computer stuff is like the great black hole of endless variation. Ask at your own peril for one to explain. It's like a path that keeps splitting in two, but you have to keep each part in your mind, while it keeps splitting, and changing, and you have to keep it all modelled, and soon the models are so complex only the computer can remember them, and on it goes. Fun if your mind is tuned that way, but very difficult to translate.

Much more remunerative to concentrate on what is solid in life, family, gold, land, flora and fauna, friends. There is your future.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 22:34 - ID#266105)

maunderings, wanderings on a slow gold day

"It's difficult for the human mind to grasp how much time geology allows us, so various picturesque
metaphors have been developed. The one I like is as follows: I stand with my arm outstretched and the
distance from the center of my tie to my fingers represents the total time available since life began.
That's about four thousand million years. Out to about my shoulder we still get nothing but bacteria. At
my elbow you might be starting to get slightly more complicated cells - eukaryotic cells - but still single
cells. About mid-forearm you start getting multicellular organisms, animals you can see without a
microscope. At my palm you would get the dinosaurs. Somewhere toward the end of my finger you
would get the mammals. At the beginning of my nail you would get early humans. And the whole of
history - all of documented written human history, all the Babylonians, Biblical history, Egyptians, the
Chinese, the whole of recorded history would fall as the dust from a nail file across the tip of my
furthest finger."

- stolen


The gold window was closed in '71.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 22:35 - ID#60253)

Date: Tue Mar 24 1998 20:58

Logical ( ANOTHER ) ID#320219:

 Your proposing an upheaval in international currency- is that why the EMU will be backed by so much gold or do we look else where for the future international currency? Your earlier posts had a much more urgent tone has oils plans been pushed to the right or is the increased gold backing of the EMU a workable solution for the interim? 


The large gold backing for the Euro and the much greater gold reserves for the individual countries of the Euro, is a direct result from observations of gold buying by oil! If it is well known by the BIS that a move by oil to bring crude to $10.00 US, is a precursor to an new world oil currency, then it is well known to the Euro makers! Gold will be managed back to a range of $320/$360 with much hope for participation of Euro as the currency/gold payment for oil. My knowledge is that the new range will bring a breakup to the London operation, with the ensuing run by gold to infinity. We will watch this, together, yes? I offer my past thought:

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 23:16


Copyright  1998 ANOTHER/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Neophyte ( Another - ECB gold holdings? ) ID#390249:

Do you know how much gold the ECB will hold as part of its reserves?

Mr. Neophyte,

I do not know. I have knowledge of some discussion for 15% with a individual country holding that is very high. If this is as a final outcome, many CBs will be forced to call in lent gold and buy. I have reason to find this to be as fact!

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 20:01

Mr. Psyched,

Please reread the most recent posts from Another. Your question should be: Why would the USA buy most of its oil from Venezuelan when it would be far cheaper to buy it from the ME using gold? It is possible that the new oil bid will come about with the inroduction of the EURO and give that currency the oil backing!


If the EURO is backed with gold in a large way, oil may be purchased with EUROs and even a smaller amount of gold!

Steve in TO__A
(Wed Mar 25 1998 22:42 - ID#209265)
Speed- You're absolutely right. Stock index derivatives didn't exist in the 1930's, and there would have been a national uproar anyway had Hoover tried to inject government money directly into the stock market. People had stronger fiscal ethics in those days.

There would definitely have been a 1987-style crash in October last year had Rubin's "plunge Protection Team" not intervened by means of sponsored stock buybacks by friendly companies such as IBM, and by means of S&P500 Index contract purchases through Goldman & Sachs.

In fact S&P futures contract purchases were first suggested by a Fed official in the early years of the Bush administration, in a report on how to short-circuit stock market crashes. During the 1992 election there seemed to be the potential for a bear market, and Bush intervened. He used a slush fund, the "Currency Stabilization Fund," over which the President has discretionary authority, to buy large quantities of S&P futures. Bush never was a very astute politician, though. It was Bill Clinton who was harping on "the economy, stupid" and Bush's actions played right into Clinton's hand. BTW- those purchases were only reported in the specialized business papers, the WSJ and the FP. The masses were oblivious to these shenanigans.

In 1996 Bill Clinton was playing the same game, the CSF was being used to buy S&P contracts just like in 1992. Talk about duping the rubes with their own money!

You're right- this procedure mainlines liquidity straight into the stock market, attracting more of the main street suckers into the mutual funds that will destroy anywhere from 1/2 to 3/4 of their life's savings when the music stops.

This direct intervention of the US gov't in the stock markets is unprecedented in history. Another thing that is unprecedented is the placement of political operatives in various federal departments who pressure those agencies to release fudged data. This makes me think that the chaos that will erupt when the whole system becomes unstable will be unprecedented too.

Clone- Don't expect to be able to get those extra-cheap Asian goods for very long. In the 1930's deflation actually started in Europe, then in South America, before it did in North America. When deflationary pressures started to reach American shores Congress decided to simply exclude the cheap imports with protectionist measures. What they didn't think of was that those measures ( the infamous Smoot-Hawley Act ) would kill a lot of jobs- which coupled with a loss of confidence engendered by the 'Crash of 29' caused a catastrophic contraction of demand, which led to deflation! What these politicians don't understand is that you can't legislate deflation away- it can osmose through things like tariffs and minimum wages and national borders. You have to run your economy with integrity.

Expect exactly the same thing to happen again as the Asian countries start to flood North America with their newly priced goods. Congress will can free trade and bring in protectionist measures. Then when the Asians can't export their way out of their fiscal problems expect them to retaliate by selling US treasury debt to raise cash and to try to form their own regional currency reserve system. They might even start building up some decent gold reserves. Anyhow, that will be the sound of the music stopping- exactly like it did in the 1930's.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 22:44 - ID#269245)
Another - a different view...
I am fairly convinced that we will not see a significant rise in the Dollar price of oil for some time. There are too many problems within the global economic infrastructure. I anticipate the demand for oil to continue to decrease as industry braces for a deflationary recession. For a while, OPEC may have limited success in curtailing quota delinquency, but one must remember that the majority of OPEC members are heavily dependant on oil sales. Already, many industrialized nations are contracting. With stable or decreasing demand, these nations will be desparate to sell high volume at whatever price they can get, just to remain competative. Investors will go to gold before oil ( I am assuming this ) , thus oil producers will not be able to yield as much gold per barrel. Once the world gets back on track, then I think we can expect oil prices to follow in gold's footsteps as demand for oil recovers. But I really don't see this happening for a while. Any thoughts? - c

(Wed Mar 25 1998 22:46 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold , Energy & Tech charts
Fidelity Select Sectors
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart

Energy & Energy Service Sector Chart

Computers, Electronics & Software Sector Chart

(Wed Mar 25 1998 22:50 - ID#288156)
Banks would like to change the rules, please...
Bankers seek now formula
George Graham, Banking Editor

International bankers are calling on the Basle committee of bank supervisors to change their formula for calculating how much capital banks need to hold as a cushion against risk. ...the ten-year-old Basle capital accord is "flawed" and could ENCOURAGE BANKS TO TAKE

"Recommendations for revisiing the regulatory capital rules for credit risk" published by Institute of International Finance

(Wed Mar 25 1998 22:53 - ID#320219)

Your point is now clear, thank you for your patience.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 22:56 - ID#411112)
Promrtheus/ALBERICH,put those two posts together and you get BUY GOLD AND LOTS OF IT..thanks guys..

nite Gracy

(Wed Mar 25 1998 23:02 - ID#287358)


had no idea packing meant is a preparatory event..
thursday bub...

lgbito--you belong in bed with the rat-man....imagine....

young hepbito's running around the house....what a sight...
and smell...phew...stinky-cat-the-mad-at-the-world-kitty-kat....
behave, else another flaming-cyber-arrow will pierce thine spine...
as did the one at unc!; )

Steve in TO__A
(Wed Mar 25 1998 23:05 - ID#209265)
Tell this one to yer friends who have mutual fund shares
Hey gang. Did you know that in the US should "chaotic, uncontollable" ( i.e. "crashing markets that the plunge protection team can't control ) develop, the mutual fund companies can meet redemption requests by issuing shares to their unitholders!

This is for real. I contacted the SEC about it, and a fellow there was kind enough to send me a photocopy of the relevant legislation.

Yep- tell your friends that if the market implodes, they could find themselves the proud owners of a bunch of share certificates, that they'll have to pay a broker to unload at some incredibly low price. If they can be sold at all, that is : )


(Wed Mar 25 1998 23:09 - ID#45173)
Gems on Greenspan from The New Republic, March 30, 1998
Excerpts from "Praised be Greenspan"

( c ) The New Republic, March 30, 1998

In 1980 when Ronald Reagan divulged his plan to cut taxes, boost defense spending, and balance the budget, the candidate trotted out Greenspan to quell any accusations of voodoo economics. "This is an exercise in reasonable budget making," said Greenspan, the a well-respected economics consult earning a living in the private sector. And also: "To argue that Governor Reagan's program is irresponsible and nonsensical." In 1984, Charles Keating hired Greenspan to examine Lincon Savings and Loan. Greenspan did, and he then urged Congress to grant Lincon and other S&Ls a legal exemption that would allow it to make riskier investments. Keating, he wrote, "is seasoned and expert in selecting and making direct investments" and "has a long and continuous track record of outstanding success in making sound and profitable direct investments." Greenspan's prestigious endorsement helped Keating win over Congress.

One might suppose that his bit parts in the two greatest economic fiascos of the last two decades--the huge deficits of the 1980s and the savings-and-loan debacle--would dull Greenspan's luster at least a little bit. Instead, he faces ever more pleas to oraculate.


The elevation of Greenspan has occurred during an historical moment when the Federal Reserve doesn't have a particularly clear understanding of its job. This is because the guideposts that traditionally steer monitary policy no longer hold much validity. The Fed used to pay a lot of attention to the money supply. The idea was to allow the money supply to grow at a slow but constant rate--fast growth would mean inflation, too slow growth might mean recession. But, because of new financial instruments like money-market accounts and ATM cards, the Fed has a hard time calculating the money supply. You can't base your decisions on the money supply if you don't know what the money supply is.

The Fed used to also follow the unemployment rate. Many economists belived that if the unemployment rate fell below about six and a half percent, inflation would rise. So, if unemployment fell below this point, the Fed would get ready to raise interest rates and slow things down before inflation broke out. But that notion, too, has fallen by the wayside. Unemployment is now below five percent, and inflation is dropping, not rising. The Federal Reserve used to be very confident of how to manage the economy. Now, nobody is.

The point of this is that the Federal Reserve--or at least its chairman--is now more inclined to let the economy run its course and see what happens. Think of Greenspan as a basketball coach: he doesn't strictly choreograph his team's every move; instead, he lets his players play. Since 1995, he has made just one tiny change in interest rates, and that came in March 1997. Essentially, he has done nothing. The strategy seems to work, and of course Greenspan deserves some credit--doing something might have messed up the economy. Nevertheless, it is true that we would have had the exact same monetary policies over the past year if, instead of Greenspan, the Fed had been run by a turkey sandwich.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 23:10 - ID#269245)
Steve, Aberich the dwarf
Steve: Your contributions as a realistic historian are much appreciated. I don't understand how the USG ( any branch ) could close its borders and isolate themselves when it failed the last time ( as you have illustrated ) and after the USG has spent so much time trying to open the asian economies under the IMF's mandate. I guess stranger things have happened...

Alberich the Dwarf: Please excuse my arrogance, but we all know you are a dude! You can dump the whole he/she thing already! Thanks for your insights.

All: Push the physical as we approach the inevitable...

And now I return to the sand, goodnight! - c

(Wed Mar 25 1998 23:12 - ID#60253)

Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 10:53

jonesy ( Re. Escapism / ANOTHER / Dow Bulls / Euro / Titanic / Sluts Endeared / Violins ) ID#251166:


Your post was of much interest for me. The new country, America was also a fantastic dream for many. However, for some, this dream of a great nation did come true! For all you find to look down on her, she is still held as the best of the best. I find this to be a true feeling for myself, also. The greatest changes in history were always found with much confusion and anguish by the very persons that made just history,

great history!

find our new world the same from before, as history will look back to see when men changed the perception of value

thank you

(Wed Mar 25 1998 23:13 - ID#248180)
It appears to me that the strongest position of Oil Exporter Nations outside of the USA is the "Threat" or actually the "Move" to full production resulting in very cheap oil for an extended time period. Does this equal the "Change" or trigger the "change"?

The USA/IMF and its' Hegemoney currency could not withstand cheap oil prices.

Does Oil Bid for Gold with the "Threat" and action of Full All-Out Production?

Is the USA in the Gulf to maintain a moniter/checked controlled production? It is not there to maintain the "Free Flow of Full Production".

In fact the USA/System does not want Iraq and Iran back on full production. Full production poses the greatest threat to the USA and IMF systems.

All Your Thoughts Please.

Currencies: US$____? Euro$____? Gold Backed_______? Yes___ NO___

(Wed Mar 25 1998 23:13 - ID#288156)
Cherokee, here is a Japanese forex trader who is rather interesting to 'track'
albeit always a day behind! [not much good to you I guess, but still
interesting... ( ? )
Tokyo market commentary
[24MAR98 14:35 JST] Whether USD/YEN peaked at 131.30 has not been confirmed yet since the trend line colored green has not been breached. However, the following factors may heighten the possibility that the dollar hit the ceiling:
1 ) the dollar traveled from 124.76 to 130.30 the same distance as it did from 122.55 to 129.05 and the entire wave from 122.55 to 130.30 can be seen "corrective" in nature.
2 ) a "hanging man"-like formation emerged on the candlestick charts, which is often observed when the market reaches the top.

(Wed Mar 25 1998 23:21 - ID#26669)
Another. Comments?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 23:27 - ID#222231)
STEVE in TO_A, clone, ALL
Thank you for your comments. I'm trying to digest the entire article and your comments. When I can come up with something half way intelligent, I'll reply to youse guys. ( Brooklynese )

Off to feed the chickens first.

Interesting Times
(Wed Mar 25 1998 23:29 - ID#423355)
America (ANOTHER)
As an American, I appreciate your view of our country. In a time of corrupt leadership, ethical decay, and fears of systemic collapse, it is worth remembering the remarkable resiliency this system has shown in response to past crises. Now a time of change approaches, for this country and for others. May we all make use of the best within us...


(Wed Mar 25 1998 23:30 - ID#288156)
FT, [SR] "Investing in South Africa:New dawn for the golden age "Gold"
by Mark Ashurt [Excerpts]
"A wave of consolidation in the industry has followed the fall in the gold price." ...wave of consolidation has not been ignored by Anglo plans to merge its diverse gold interests into a new focused gold company a significant move it will be a quasi-independent company in which Anglo American will hold a 40 per
cent stake. It will also acquire JCI's HJ Joel mine, which Anglo American bought back from the wreckage of JCI barely a year after it disposed of its controlling stake in JCI to promote black empowerment.

To these local assets, Anglogold intends to add the international gold interests of Minorco, Anglo American's Luxembourg-based associate.

Even if the present round of reforms can resucitate investors confidence, more corporate restructuring is in the pipeline. As the new gold giants seek structures which spread risk, they will inadvertently create a new market for marginal producers highly geared to the old price.

A further round of mergers and acquisitions is likely among the most
vulnerable operations. For example, all but three of Gold Fields' mines have been earmarked for disposal."

(Wed Mar 25 1998 23:31 - ID#60253)

Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 22:44

clone ( Another - a different view... ) ID#269245:


I respect your view as it makes much right. But, I ask you, what if? In response to a world wide currency crisis and possible depression, Oil offers to sell its reserves for a much lower price than today. For your eyes, I will say, they drastically devalue oil, using gold! One producer offers to accept a currency price of $8.00US and a tiny fraction/oz. gold. With all CBs holding much gold, the market dynamics would raise the reserves of many nations several thousand %. Would this not be a welcome to a cash strapped world?

All: I ask you, why did the world go off the gold standard in the early 70s? You have an answer, yes? For all the problems this created, could the countries not just revalue gold upward, to say $300 ( back then ) ? What was the real reason the world entered a period of freely traded managed gold?

Thank You

(Wed Mar 25 1998 23:44 - ID#345268)
@ Another

Sir, those countries whose CB's do not hold much gold, how are they going to survive in the event of a significant upvaluation of gold?

Lurker 777
(Wed Mar 25 1998 23:51 - ID#317247)
ANOTHER (Belgium)
Why not! I'll play.

ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253 ) is now to go into reverse! A large purchase, now, is sending another message, bring gold back into $320 to $360 US$ range. We should see this in five to ten days. This will be a hard thing, as it may create a crush to cover. Let us watch this new gold market, as it is not as before.
BELGIUM 299 tons?

(Wed Mar 25 1998 23:58 - ID#60253)

Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 23:13

Junior ( ANOTHER @ ) ID#248180:

Copyright  1998 Junior/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

It appears to me that the strongest position of Oil Exporter Nations outside of the USA is the "Threat" or actually the "Move" to full production resulting in very cheap oil for an extended time period. Does this equal the "Change" or trigger the "change"?

I do not understand?

You state: The USA/IMF and its'Hegemoney currency could not withstand cheap oil prices.

Mr. Junior,

Be very sure to understand this: They can stand cheap oil prices. But, it is the loss of having the US$ removed as the world reserve currency that makes them fight a lower oil price, and the new world oil currency that it would bring!

Bring this thought into focus and you will inderstand why Iran and Iraq did fight so long. And why Iraq invaded. The warships are an attempt to keep prices from falling! You think long and hard on this!

(Wed Mar 25 1998 23:59 - ID#345268)
@ Another

Sir, you see that this forum is frozen, noone is posting because all of us are awaiting your posts. Please speak up...

Thank you