Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 00:00 - ID#210235)
Howdy. Never posted at ya before, although I've read your posts over time and agree with you on the big issues. Think we're going to deal with deflation although some segments of the economy, such as private insurance, private education, and other luxuries which serve smaller and smaller segments of society ( the affluent ) will continue to experience inflation.

It is obvious from history that gold does best in a deflationary environment. So why in the heck am I writing?

Well, it has to do with timing.

As the chaos expert dryly noted, it's fairly easy to predict the temperature of that hot cup of coffee an hour from now. It's a minute, two minutes from now, when extremely complex systems need to be simulated in order to predict it's temperature.

My question to you is, what kinds of analysis are you using to project your deflation projection, and what kinds of time-frames are you comfortable with? I really don't know whether we're looking weeks, months, or years ahead before deflation becomes an issue here ( USA ) . The closest model I can find is Great Britain during the great depression, when their GDP rose steadily throughout, albeit at a slow pace. They actually did quite well.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 00:05 - ID#339212)
@ all on the great depression

Did other countries had national bank failures as the US and if so which were these countries? Any of the majors?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 00:10 - ID#227238)
Riddles and conspiracies.
Prometheus ( @Bernatz ) : Apparently when certain posts are read backwards, they spell out: "Hep.nut". ...... Best to pay the business no never mind. Only Hep is important enough in this world to warrant the attention of the darker powers of the universe. At least it is so in his mind. Wherever that may be. ..... Sheeeeesh!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 00:12 - ID#344308)

earthquakes you say...

a recent el nino/major earthquake study shows a
quite definitive correlation between the two.....

the huge amounts of precipitation...and what all here
already know...

for every action---adding tremendous pressure----there is
an equal and opposite reaction----release of pressure---earthquake.

the correlation is astonishing, and cause for immediate concern...

on the positive side, there will be large amounts of placer gold
washed into the streams from the storms....

earl---howdy! aadgt..


(Sun Mar 29 1998 00:17 - ID#253153)
Deflation-- Prometheus
I use phase cycle analysis that deals with trends. All my decisions are based upon the prevailing current trend. The trend is your friend. Usually, trends last from 10-17 years. We had our walking inflation trend between 1948--1965. In 1965 we started our runawaway inflationay phase which lasted until 1982. If you recall ,in 1982 inflation was running at %14 annual rate. As I said before, we started our disiflationary trend in 1982 and it was concluded in 1997. Now we have entered the runaway deflationay trend and it will last somewhere between 10-17 years. The reason why I share this info is to make people think for themself. Many people will lose every thing they have got as this deflationay trend intensifies. I hate to see people getting hurt .

John Disney__A
(Sun Mar 29 1998 00:18 - ID#24135)
Tell Me More Mr JP
for JP/Ray

Just an example to comment on JPs 70 % tax rate.
But before itemizing .. 70% of WHAT ???

Taking fregold aa a ramdom sample ( mill rands ) .
YEAR, working profit, Tax, %
1993, 502, 99, 20
1994, 789, 245, 31
1995, 627, 123, 20
1996, 208, 43, 21
1997 ( 9mos ) , 225, 35, 16

JP .. I hope you weren't in the tax department
of that "international" company ... They may be
over paying tax. Also capex in RSA is taken as a
direct expense against working profit in the year
in which it is incurred. There is no "depreciation".
Sorry to introduce facts. We were having such a
fun discussion.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 00:18 - ID#45173)
JP: I agree with you about deflation
Ultimately it's driven by the enormous mountain of individual, corporate, and government debt in the world economy. All the Fed can do in the USA to combat deflation is lower interest rates and increase the money supply. The money supply has been increased steadily for the past five years but inflation continues to slow. Interest rates are already lower than they've been during periods of inflation.

The basic premise of capitalism, as I understand it, is that it must continuously grow in order to not contract, and expanding debt is the mechanism of that growth. The natural cycles of boom and bust are driven by the need to unwind debt at the top of a cycle and start over. If there is enough debt in the economy you can't lend money even at 0% interest--at some point even at 0% the borrower says, "No thanks. No more." The rate of personal bankruptcy is at a record high in the USA, perhaps a strong indicator that his limit is being reached.

I agree that individual investors and fund managers will flock to gold at some point during this unwinding and that gold will climb higher than ever as a result. But I worry that if that happens the government will once again need to confiscate gold at an artificial fixed below-market price. This argues for a heavier investment in gold stocks and funds than in physical if you are placing a bet on a deep deflationary period.

John Disney__A
(Sun Mar 29 1998 00:20 - ID#24135)
Talking early morning blues
for Ray/JP
Ramdom is my way of saying random at 7 am

(Sun Mar 29 1998 00:21 - ID#210235)
Thanks. I still hope that Bernatz gives us some clarification, as such a breach of implicit confidentiality would be very upsetting. It would be best to get past the innuendo.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 00:29 - ID#225283)
cayman bank failures

does anyone recall specifically which cayman bank ( s ) recenty failed??????

(Sun Mar 29 1998 00:36 - ID#400214)
cherokee_A --- earthquakes you say...
Then you might like all this quake data

(Sun Mar 29 1998 00:36 - ID#227238)
Cherokee: Ciao, Amigo.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 00:42 - ID#210235)
Re: bank failures. Yes, there were some big European ones. In 1931, French banks called their short-term German and Austrian notes ( considered to be a political move ) , causing the collapse of the Kreditanstalt in Vienna, the biggest Austrian bank, which set off a bank panic. The Weimar Republic was forced to default on its ( WW1 ) reparation payments, due to gold withdrawals from its banks. The Americans tried to intervene politically with the French, but no go. The British tried to help both Austria and Germany monetarily, but got caught short and were forced to abandon the gold standard. The European problem caused a fresh round of called loans back in the USA, to satisfy a critical and immediate European demand for gold. Another wave of liquidations occurred in the USA. This all happened by autumn of 1931. A prime example of a "vicious cycle", sort of a financial tornado.

John Disney__A
(Sun Mar 29 1998 00:42 - ID#24135)
Relax ..Gianni .. come on down.. buy a farm
For Gianni
Not joking .. many Germans/Europeans buying wine farms
now for fancy prices .. just in the Cape of course.
There was talk in early days of Mandela to expropriate
land form white farmers for use by Black farmers. That died.
Activity now centers on establishing some land rights for
farm workers that have lived in cottages on large farms
for several generations and been paid partly in rum. IE
have they acquired some rights to some land by living there
for ages. This involves mainly colored farm workers rather
than Black ones ( though not exclusively ) . Answer will probably
be to give them use of some land is they want it or they
can sell it back to the land owner ( and use the money to
have a party?? ) .. It's a social justice type problem
that will probably wind up in the toohard basket as there
are too few votes attached ( coloreds vote against the ANC
predominantly ) .
It is not much of a "threat" mainly because many Blacks
already leaving farms that they have in transkei and ciskei
to come to shanty near urban centers.
The nats have an active program to get them back to the
farms... didnt fly.

John Disney__A
(Sun Mar 29 1998 00:46 - ID#24135)
I know .. He stole one of my Monikers.. BAD TASTE
To all
I wouldn't worry too much about what Bad-nuts has to say
about anything .. but watch out.. he steals you know.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 00:47 - ID#45173)
PrivateInvestor: Nope I can't recall the Cayman bank and
I couldn't find anything on the web either. But I did run across an interesting report in the archives of newsweek at

(Sun Mar 29 1998 00:54 - ID#257148)
Private Investor, 223, Earl, cherokee

here you go, good to see ya again.

Tuesday January 13, 9:05 pm Eastern Time
Bank failures stir regulatory questions in Caribbean tax
By Rick Catlin
GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands, Jan 13 ( Reuters ) - Ordinarily, the forced closure of
one bank in a small British territory should not cause much talk.
But the self-destruction of the First Cayman Bank has prompted questions about the
Cayman Islands' fledgling regulatory agency, caused a run on another bank and led to
the dismissal of a government minister with ties to First Cayman.
And the answers matter, since the Cayman Islands is a leading off-shore financial center
and tax haven, with 580 registered banks -- or one for every 53 residents -- serving
corporations and wealthy clients from around the world.
The Caymans, composed of three islands 150 miles south of Cuba, are also home to
about 400 offshore insurance companies. Dozens of the world's biggest banks are
registered in the islands, and bank assets were $464 billion at year-end 1996.

THough why anyone would think the caymans is safe is beyond me.

Yeah, I reckon late November will be a good time to let on to y'all..BTW, don't forget it'll be summer down under at christmas.

Earl, cherokee, salud.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 00:56 - ID#253153)
South AfricanGold Stocks===John Disney
John, I'm not knocking out South African Gold stocks. I think they will do well. All I'm saying is that I think North American Gold stocks will outperform the S.A mines. When I was there ,before Mendella took over,
the %70 tax rate applied to net income after all expenses. I have not heard of any changes in the corp tax rate in S.A . As a matter of fact, I think that as the price of Gold rises and then mines begin to make money,corp taxes in S.A will rise. Mandella has promised the world to his country men.

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sun Mar 29 1998 00:56 - ID#182192)
Earl - On a joke forum, everything is taken as a joke
Or is made into a joke.

How specific do you want me to be? Do you want me
to reveal the information that was revealed? Do
you want me to reveal the name of the person who
sent me an e-mail alerting me to this?

I pointed out that someone who I did business with
in the last two years has started dropping hints
about who I am and where I might be. You can accept
it or ignore it, but why does everything I post have
to be immediately rejected? Are you somehow more of
a godhead than anyone else at this site? Is there
no helpful information that I can impart from my experience
on this site, such as "Be careful"? Or does someone
who is correct at this site against the wishes of others
just naturally get what he deserves, and the more of
it the better? Jeez, Earl, start interacting with the
human race instead of just proselytizing others to
share in your Earlview.

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sun Mar 29 1998 00:59 - ID#182192)
John Disney, are you now admitting
that, prior to registration, you were then one posting
under the handle Bernatz de Ventadorm?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 01:01 - ID#257148)
PI, crusty, M*, auric
Okee it's expired, got the whole thing archived if you'd like more details let me know, I'll upchuck it.

ah, so 8.00 am now? How far E/W - or time zones of Greenwich RU?

M* the unspellable
My screen same, same, however never seen it as a problem. You got a Mac, and that's gold.

see if you can find a Mac's Gold Lager in that beer shop you get the DB from. Let me know if you'd like some info from the brewer's bible.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 01:06 - ID#227238)
By way of clarification.
John Disney: While not completely clear, I assume that you are referring to "Hep the Usurper". The Faceless One of many handles. He of the unknown thread. While impossible to discern ( a coherent thread ) , it's certain to be shrill, personal and bordering on the hysterical. Today was but another example. ........ I share your outrage ( feel yer pain?? ) regarding the usurpation of a venerable handle. And may the fleas of a thousand camels take up residence in his darker regions.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 01:09 - ID#252286)
Private Investor
PI - are you still up?


(Sun Mar 29 1998 01:13 - ID#284255)
More Y2K
XAU/Joh Gold Index - ratio

VP Al Gore To Not Seek Party's Nomination

---------- It's too late baby now its too late,
Though we really did try to make it...

"At the current pace," the General Accounting Office
warned, "it is clear that not all mission-critical systems
will be fixed in time."

Year 2000 Efforts Falling Short -- Government warns of shortfall

It's Already Too Late to Fix All Year 2000 Bugs, U.S. Government Auditors Warn
( requires registration )

---------- Currency Conversion Crisis Complications Cause Confused Consensus

Euro adds to the Year 2000 odyssey

Euro headache bugs business

EMU crisis could cripple companies

GETTING READY FOR THE EURO BUG: Programming computers for the new currency may cost $175 billion

Date bug pushes Emu to back of bank queue
( site requires free registration )

---------- When the Network won't Work

Date code crisis spreads: Realization sinks in: It's also a problem for
client-server nets

Year-2000 Problem: Can Its Ripples Cripple The Net?

JavaScript Programmers, Heed The Warnings

---------- "Y2K is a wonderful opportunity to do nasty things"

Computer-Reliant U.S. Society Faces Growing Risk Of 'Information War'

---------- Neither a borrower nor a lender be

Tough Y2K warning for U.K. banks,4,20040,00.html

Banks watch borrowers as Y2K nears

Banks Worry Year 2000 Woes May Lead to Rise in Bad Loans
( requires paid registration )

Banks watch out for customers' Year 2000 problems

Hawaii banks have plans of their own

What Every Loan Officer Needs to Know about the Year 2000 Computer Problem ( But Doesn't Know How to Ask )
( in pdf format )

Kansas banks meeting `Year 2000' problem head-on

State may force banks to deal with `Y2K' issue

Financial authority threatens closure if banks don't comply
( requires free registration )

U.S. FDIC warns banks of Year 2000 problems

---------- Whatever you do, don't let all this gloom and doom make you ill

Hospitals ignoring Y2K bug

Hospitals Face Big 2000 Risk

Hospitals try inoculation against the millennium bug

$100M to fight health bug

Hospital finds remedy for Y2K bug

Testing begins for Year 2000 bug

---------- Nuclear News

Millennium bug could cripple US nuclear missiles

HSE experts give all-clear on threat of nuclear meltdown
( requires free registration )

---------- Special Reports on Y2K

Software Magazine's Year 2000 Survival Guide

Business Review Weekly's Y2K Focus

NZ InfoTech Weekly Year 2000 Special Report

Financial Post Y2K Series

---------- Gives a whole new meaning to the phrase "Millennium Bomb"

'Ww2 Bomb' Unearthed At Millennium Site

---------- Odds and Ends

Profits of Doom

Insurers have Y2K glitches covered

Year 2000 advice: Plan now for testing

Olympics threatened by Y2K

NT 5.0 awash in uncertainties

Millennium bug will prompt worldwide recession, Australian experts predict

A Staggering problem: Lawyers could reap $1 trillion bonanza from Y2K glitches

Plan Your Triage

About that year 2000: It may be much worse than you think

2000 and your VCR

Locked up

Yes Virginia, There is a Phone Card

---------- Ending with the oddest:
Y2K has them stocking up on freeze-dried foods in Ohio

Survival instincts unleashed

(Sun Mar 29 1998 01:16 - ID#227238)
bernatz du ventadorm (Earl - On a joke forum, everything is taken as a joke
Hep: Master of impeccable timing. And as usual, incomprehensible, personal, shrill and bordering on hysteria. Case dismissed. ........ In point of fact, out of the many hundreds of customers ordering by remote control, only YOU seem to be singled out for special attention. Why???? Only Hepper the Great is made to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. Why?? Is your wisdom so great and your contribution to the greater good of an otherwise stupid humanity that you must be put down at all costs by the enslaving powers of the universe?? Cut us some slack Hepper. You are the joke. But yer right in one respect; the joke is on us.

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sun Mar 29 1998 01:16 - ID#182192)
Earl - To clarify, I have been using one handle since registration
Also, it should be pointed out that I have an identity,
John Meissner, and then when someone pointed it out,
I freely admitted it, whereas when I asked John Disney
a number of times if he was Bernatz, he never admitted
it. When Bill Buckler talks about trading strategies
and how successful people are able to admit things
to themselves, perhaps this is what he is talking about.

To recap:
John Meissner = One handle since registration, admits
when people are correct. Currently nonhysterical.
John Disney = One handle since registration, doesn't
admit when people are correct. Apparently wouldn't
admit to being hysterical even when confronted by
others who have definitive proof that he is hysterical.
Earl = Insolent and pedantic.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 01:17 - ID#225283)

thanks....but i had heard that the failure was related to the asian mess....someone here at kitco made mention of it.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 01:23 - ID#210235)
Do you happen to know if that problem in Auckland with the power is fully fixed yet? It's become something of a model in my little brain for Y2k.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 01:24 - ID#210235)
You've outdone yourself. Guess lots of people are waking up to the problem. Sort of creeps up on a person.

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sun Mar 29 1998 01:24 - ID#182192)
Earl - We're through talking for the night
Sometimes people are remembered because of the
particular qualities of the transactions. If you are
not completely bereft of intelligence, you will
comprehend what I am getting at without me
having to humiliate you yet again by pointing out
who always wins these pissing contests.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 01:28 - ID#227238)
Hep: Win/lose is only discernible to those in possession of lucidity. ..... and may the hobgoblins that infest your soul find respite elsewhere. End of thread.

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sun Mar 29 1998 01:32 - ID#182192)
Oh, and Earl, just so we don't have to cover this ground again
when we're through talking tomorrow night:

Is it possible that people who buy and sell gold
and silver for a living ( i.e., as their business )
might have some interest in this site, and indeed,
might post here on occasion. ( I can supply you
with at least two examples if you're having trouble. )
Is it possible that people who buy gold and silver
on this site for whatever reasons might interact
with people who buy gold and silver for a living,
that is, is it possible for someone on this site
to have business dealings with someone else who
also happens to know about this site?
Is it possible for you to post without being
supercilious, or do you even recognize this
as you normal posting style?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 01:39 - ID#257148)
Hot potatoes-- is that from flying too close to the sun?

Thank you for your golden-hearted story a day or two ago, it was e-mailed to me by a friend. The power problem was supposed to be fixed, but there was another power outage on Thursday for a couple of hours. There has been quite an effect on the small businesses, the ones who could not move away from the central business district. Others escaped to the out-lying commercial or residential areas, and are returning now. Some businesses have realised they do not need to be in the CBD and will not return.

As for a model for Y2K? Well, the antics of the last few days makes me come to theses conclusions:
( a ) No civilisation, to my knowledge, has been destroyed by a technology.
( b ) civilisations are destroyed by external events ( conquest ) or from inside - revolution
( c ) the Y2K problem will be handled differently by different cultures.
( d ) antipodean cultures will survive because we "make do" and, despite our differences, we have a sense of community, we pitch in to help each other, "Mates" is big here.
( e ) come to your own conclusions about american "civilisation"
( f ) Old Soldier on mar 17 19:13 said it best:
----I think that no matter how bad things get worldwide, the U.S. will still be about the best place to be for U.S. citizens.
( g ) says a bunch

(Sun Mar 29 1998 01:40 - ID#227238)
On posting styles.
Hep: I don't understand it but, you just bring out the best in me. ~~poof~~.

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sun Mar 29 1998 01:45 - ID#182192)
On the contrary, Earl, I would say that
if we took a poll of unbiased observers,
60% of them would give Clinton a favorable rating
and 40% of them would call you a poofter.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 01:45 - ID#26669)
One comment on the Y2K problem before bed
In 1900 the world's greatest thinkers projected that all the major cities would be inundated by horse doo doo before the year 2000.

Just think on the bright side, all the millions to be made in programming and additional millions made in recycling the gold from all the useless computers! Goodnight!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 01:46 - ID#210235)
@farfel, or the unpronoun
I don't personally remember this, but used to have a couple of books on it. Back in the late 60's there was a terrificly easy way to invest in an aging bull market. It was the "nifty 50", such stocks as Polaroid, Avon, the big names of their day. They were an exact parallel to our INDEX stocks, which are being sold to the uninitiated in ever greater numbers as the sure bet in the stock market.

The nifty 50 was THE safe haven in the dangerously lofty market of the late 60's. However, they crashed with the rest of the market. Had no added safety whatsoever. Many ( half of them, if memory serves me rightly ) never did recover, after the market regained it's footing in the 80's, and lost their glamour forever.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 01:52 - ID#284255)
Not more Y2K
Auckland is still having trouble meeting its power supply.
The only reason that they have got some power up and running is because the have a large ship alongside the wharf and are using its generators - not aurators
Those urls come from an email I receive once a month.
I subscribe to the mailing list

Lots of good reading and reasons to buy physical.
Plus they are only ever send forward the newest articles.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 01:56 - ID#210235)
You're welcome. Glad to have you posting again.

Not too terribly worried about Y2k. We'll have lots of stories to tell the kids after that one. Will have plenty of provisions, in case clean water or energy become temporarily unavailable. Auckland reminded us we have settled into a bit of complacency, which may not be warranted.

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sun Mar 29 1998 02:01 - ID#182192)
L. Neenyo is now officially over, you can crawl out of your bunkers
And yet the stock market is near an all-time high
while gold is at $300. Remember when we had all
the EOW links about L. Neenyo? When the Y2K problem
is but a memory in three years, who ya gonna call?

silver plate
(Sun Mar 29 1998 02:01 - ID#289468)
Weekend doldrums
It would appear from perusing this evenings posts that with the PM markets closed the cats and dogs are back to biting each other. Lets get back to GO GOLD and other related subjects

(Sun Mar 29 1998 02:02 - ID#340302)
@GRANT...yes, I agree...the internet brokers with their cheap transaction fees have suckered in a great number of small investors. In fact, the internet itself has hooked a tremendous number of small investors. Unfortunately, too many of these individuals treat stock trading as though it were a sophisticated video game...on various chat lines, I have observed a shocking number of teenagers are "in the market," actively trading stocks from allowance monies and part-time jobs. Is that any surprise? After all, most younger people have been raised with computers while their parents have yet to figure out how to operate a video recorder. I would love to discover what percentage of total internet stock transactions are effected by young people under the age of 25. My rough estimate would be in the order of 40-50%. In any event , no matter what the percentage figure, these low internet brokerage fees are inducing a huge wave of middle to lower income people to play the market.
What they are saving in transaction fees, they will more than lose in the impending market debacle.


(Sun Mar 29 1998 02:05 - ID#210235)
@silver plate
since gold ain't going anywhere right now, markets being closed and all, here's a silly sideline to keep you out of trouble for 5 minutes or so.

( Nice to see it finish the week above 300, eh? )

Good night, all.

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sun Mar 29 1998 02:07 - ID#182192)
It's official - Noone is prepared for
the year 10,000 problem. Government officials
have admitted that they didn't have the foresight
to allow for the possibility of a year having
five digits, and so all computers will have to
be reprogrammed, thus holding out a glimmer of
hope to goldbuts that gold will rise above
50,900 dlozlotuys.

From the APwire, year 9998 - 50,900 dlozlotuys
is equivalent to $15.80, or the cost of one pound
of salt in 20th century America.

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sun Mar 29 1998 02:18 - ID#182192)
A word to the wise
Exactly one month ago on the Golddigger site at SI, George S. Cole
was saying, yes, indeed, it does look like the end of the
gold bear is at hand. Yesterday at this site, GSC was
saying, yes, indeed, it does look like the end of the
gold bear is at hand. Also, he said he would be buying
on the dips, for which see November of last year.
If George is cheerleading, I actually have a preference
for Farfelnoodle's propaganda. Shorter and catchier,
and really points out the reason behind the action.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 02:22 - ID#340302)
@JP...I ONLY AGREE WITH YOU ON ONE SINGLE POINT.... a spontaneous, rapid, severe deflation, gold should do very well. Why? Because such an economic catastrophe would cause currency instability as countries effect wave after wave of competitive currency devaluations and/or competitive interest rate hikes to stem capital outflows. During any currency instability, people look to precious metals as a flight to safety.

On the other hand, a slow, progressive deflation is anathema to precious metals. They will deflate as much as any other asset ( maybe even more ) .

However, as I said in previous posts, I do not believe we are entering a deflation. More than likely, we are witnessing the first stage of a stagflation...which if the government decides to puts its foot on the money printing press pedal could transform into an inflation ( or in any case, a stagflation with various sectoral hyperinflations ) .

The Asia slowdown is being used by Wall Street to argue in favor of mild deflation. Why? Because a mild deflation means lower interest rates....lower interest rates mean that, even in the worst case scenario in which we see a stock market debacle, the bond market should still perform well since bonds always do well in deflationary environments ( NOT Precious Metals however ) . With a strong bond market, America can still maintain economic hegemony...and that remains the government's main focus.

On the other hand, Wall Street knows what happens in inflations and stagflations...stock AND bond markets both get hammered and Precious Metals become the most favored asset class.

As for your repeated insistence that severe inflation is impossible in this country because the government pays its workers with cheques rather than cash, could you please ( as I requested earlier ) supply me the rationale by which you have arrived at this truly bizarre theory????

Again, I guess I missed something back at Yale while obtaining my degree in Economics...I must have been asleep at the wheel the day they provided the lecture on "Government Paycheques and Inflation."


(Sun Mar 29 1998 02:27 - ID#227290)
Myrmidon & platinum stocks

I've been out all evening to see the Passion Play put on by the First Baptist Church of Atlanta in the immaculate Atlanta Civic Center. It's 2:20 AM in beautiful, downtown Hapeville, GA. I just read today's posts and thought I'd give you the skinny on some of the stocks you mentioned earlier.
SWC should nearly double its production over the next couple of years plus add some base metal production to the mix. Of course, the company unwisely hedged most of its platinum production last year at much lower prices. Those hedges are now gradually expiring. As the year wears on, the price should rise even without a further rise in the pgms.

PLDCF is a turnaround situation with a new management team. The company produced 54,000 ounces of palladium last year and less than 10,000 ounces of platinum. The mine is in either Quebec or Ontario. It has seen two years of decreasing production, but the new management team will turn things around and we'll see increased production from here on out, I hope.
The price has not responded very well to the higher pgms prices. I think the market wants to see a couple of good quarters from the new team before it jumps on the bandwagon. Hopefully, we'll get that.

All-North and Northern Platinum are concerned with the Wellgreen project in the Yukon. This deposit hosts 50 million tons of .36% copper, .36% nickel, .6 lbs per ton cobalt, and .04 ounce per ton platinum & palladium plus gold. There is the opportunity to increase the resource but work cannot begin up in the frozen Yukon until late May.
All-North will hold a 20% interest in the project and Northern Platinum will hold a 40% interest. The other 40% will be held by Pat Sheridan of Toronto, the CEO of Northern Platinum. ( He's also the guy who found the Madelleine mine which is produced by PDLCF. )
The low prices of copper and nickel have kept the market from believing this mine will ever be put into production. But I think it will and that makes these companies real bargains at the current price. But we don't know when the payday will come.
There's one more twist to this story. In December 1995, the Canadian Geological Survey issued a report comparing the Wellgreen to the Norilsk mine in Russia. There is a possibility that a huge, high-grade nickel-pgms deposit lies underground, in addition to the low-grade surface deposit. Supposedly, this is to be drill tested this summer. If a Norilsk-type mine underlies the Wellgreen, then these shares will both rise above C$10. The potential is high, but that's a long way from a sure bet.
With the low base metal prices but high pgms prices, Wellgreen is starting to make sense as an open-pit, pgms mine. I doubt that will happen, but these stocks are just ridiculously undervalued right now.
All-North is bid C$.16/ask C$.19. And Northern Platinum is bid C$.82/ ask C$.99. Both off about 70% from last year's highs. I'm a shareholder and expect a big payoff from both.

Hope this helps. In fact, I hope you read it.

The Preacher

(Sun Mar 29 1998 02:28 - ID#340302)
...yet another reason to believe that either inflation and/or stagflation are around the bend is the sudden up-spike in gold prices.

Again, in a gradual deflation, we should see the POG gradually drop in price. However, with this latest upswing in gold, economic forces are suggesting that deflation is not in the cards.

If the POG rises above 320, then....WHOA BABY...that will be the time to pile into the metal at full throttle. It will be a confirmation that the entire Asian deflation thesis is a crock of &*&^&^&&*&* designed to justify absurdly lofty bond and stock prices.


bernatz du ventadorm
(Sun Mar 29 1998 02:36 - ID#182192)
Farfel, are you Oldman?
He claimed to have attended Yale as well.

( Or was it that he claimed to yell as well? or
that he planned to yell and wail? )

(Sun Mar 29 1998 02:43 - ID#252150)
Prometheus@Nifty 50
There's an article in Barron's today about the nifty 50 from 1972-1997. Surprisingly, although a few of them disappeared,they still outperformed the S&P by a considerable margin.

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sun Mar 29 1998 02:46 - ID#182192)
Preacher, how is ValuJet doing this days?
What do they call it now? I heard they reopened Centennial
Park. How far are you from Athens?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 02:47 - ID#252127)
If you're so inclined??

Go over to SI's "Gold Price Monitor" and read post #8953, from TOR and submitted by Gabriella Neri, -very interesting read- the initial header will seem negetive, but please read on.
From my readings here at Kitco tonight, I feel that some are a 3wee bit positive and that concerns me.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 02:53 - ID#340302)
Of course, Wall Street says that Asia will keep inflation at bay in America. Any indigenous inflationary pressure will be dampened by a flood of cheaper imports from Asia.


In fact, reports are coming daily from Asia to the effect that economic disaster there is causing one factory after another to shut down completely. Foreign banks are suspending letters of credit right and left. So, Asian manufacturing facilities are unable to obtain raw raw materials = shutdown. What does this phenomenon portend for America??? America the Great...that now manufactures most of its consumer goods offshore???

It means that we are likely to see consumer product shortages over the next several months...fewer Sonys and Samsungs...fewer Hyundais and name it, we'll see shortages.

The next time you go to a store and they don't have the product you want on the shelf or in the showroom, then ask the salespeople some hard questions. They probably will say it is just a distribution probem...when in reality it is a manufacturing problem.

With product shortages and increasing consumer demand, America will be in the first phase of a stagflation/inflation that many economists had predicted would first surface at the start of this decade. The fact that it didn't owes a great deal to the ingenuity of the Clinton administration. By convincing Japan and Germany to drop interest rates along with America, the Clinton regime helped usher in this global interest rate generated recovery. However, Clinton and his friends have now moved from ingenuity to disingenuousness. In order to sustain the Great American Recovery, all negatives are denied or transformed into positives. The net result: the American economic bubble grows bigger and bigger. If it had popped in October '97, we would have faced an economic slowdown at worst after the markets had found their proper, lower equilibrium level. Unfortunately, the administration intervened to preclude the markets reaching a natural equilibrium point. Today, I am afraid that a burst economic bubble will result in a genuine economic calamity as collapsing markets seek a much lower equilibrium point.


(Sun Mar 29 1998 02:57 - ID#340302)
@BERNATZ...YES, I AM OLD MAN... a younger man's body.

At least, that's what my wife tells me.


(Sun Mar 29 1998 03:04 - ID#340302)
....existential malaise.

Just concentrate on gold...imagine a golden glow forming in your mind...
now repeat after me...


Now don't you feel a lot better?


(Sun Mar 29 1998 03:18 - ID#273227)
ghosts from the past
Earl - Its great to check in and find your posts. Welcome back.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 03:32 - ID#431263)
VRONSKY AND DIZZY @ (R)eal ( S)cheiss ( A)gain
LIHIR @ 26 3/4 UP 2 1/8 ( 8.63% ) DROOY @ 2 11/32 UP 1/32 ( 1.35% )

LIHIR OUTperformed DROOY by a factor of 6+!! AND WITHOUT ANY HYPE FROM GOLDEN- ( Drop the -EN ) EAGLE!!!! Let's cheer for LIHIR! And yes, JACK, what's good for LIHIR is GOOD for VENGOLD ( VENGF ) which is now at 1 1/16 US on heavy volume in both the`US and Canada!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 03:50 - ID#252127)
Golden Cheesehead

Yes, with the status of mining labor improving in SA ( and it should be that way ) , who in his right mind would want to go one mile deep into the bowel of the earth and trudge through waist deep water in overheated workings that are rockburst prone and for peanuts?
I'm not trying to badmouth SA mines, and they should, if an initial gold surge occurs -move up.

My main problem with South Africa and Africa is that bad things have happened there and who knows where in Africa they will happen again.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 04:26 - ID#255151)

People at work are convinced I am nuts now. They found me sitting on the floor, hands clasped around bent knees, rocking back and forth and repeating "I DON'T CARE, I'M BUYING MORE!" Luckily I was able to snap out of it, and mumble something about a "daily affirmation". They'll be watching me closely now, I just KNOW they will! But, I DON'T CARE, I'M BUYING MORE!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 04:57 - ID#404189)
Do you have a specific view on gold price direction 3 months to 1 year out?

Thank you.

Mr. Mick
(Sun Mar 29 1998 06:50 - ID#345321)
Investors believe the government over private reports.....
Saturday March 28 8:03 AM EST

Markets View Some Economic Data with Jaded Eye

By Steven Scheer

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Financial markets once pored over every piece of available economic
data, but market players say that even as economy-related measures have proliferated, investors are
ignoring many of them.

Many economic reports these days barely get a look, and data collected by the private sector tend
to take a back seat to reports issued by government agencies.

"When you have had five strong ( monthly government-issued ) employment reports shrugged off by
the market, it is hard to make a case that private survey indicators mean squat," said Bear Stearns &
Co. Inc. senior economist John Ryding, echoing the sentiments of many of his Wall Street

Investors have even de-emphasized the importance of some of the traditional monthly government
heavyweights -- employment, retail sales, producer and consumer prices and trade reports --
because they are already looking to future reports that they think will portray a different picture of
the economy.

Yet at no other time has the economic indicator field been so crowded. Almost every day, someone
somewhere puts out a report -- from manufacturing activity and auto sales to inflation and chain
store sales. Often, the data calendar is saturated.

Some are established and well-respected -- like the National Association of Purchasing
Management monthly survey. But many come and go with little or no fanfare.

Some "wallflower" reports include data from The Educational Society for Resource Management
( APICS manufacturing survey ) , CNW ( auto sales ) , the University of Michigan ( consumer
sentiment ) , Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi/Schroder Wertheim ( chain store sales ) , Redbook Research
( retail sales ) , the Center for International Business Cycle Research ( inflation ) and the various regional
purchasing managers' surveys, with the exception of the Chicago version.

"These ( private ) indexes can be very misleading and as a result they have to be utilized with some
degree of caution," said William Sullivan, director of money market research at Morgan Stanley
Dean Witter. "There are so many examples of how at times these data have widely diverged from
what the broad economic reports from Washington D.C. -- the Federal Reserve, Commerce and
Labor Departments -- said," he added.

Sullivan and others said seasonal adjustment and sampling techniques from the various private firms
that issue economic data often do not match or even contradict government figures.

That's not to say the indicators are altogether useless. Some traders and analysts said the anecdotal
data from many reports help to form an opinion about the economy.

"They are more significant than people give them credit for," said one head trader at a large U.S.
primary bond dealership, "If anything, ( Fed ) Chairman ( Alan ) Greenspan is very much from the
school of looking at some anecdotal evidence."

Still, most non-government entities that issue data have started to come under pressure from
budget-conscious Wall Street firms, which are more reluctant to pay for an indicator that the market
barely blinks at.

Just recently, Lynch, Jones and Ryan Inc., publisher of the Redbook Retail Average, has come
under pressure from clients furious at a monster price hike in its weekly retail sales index, from
$1,500 to $10,000 a year for the privilege of receiving the data roughly one-half hour before

"They are raising prices at a time when people have a greatly diminished interest in the number in the
first place," Bear Stearns' Ryding said. "Demand is down; prices are up. Economics doesn't work
that way."

Indeed, many clients have reportedly canceled their subscriptions to the report while others have
referred the matter to their firms' legal departments.

Redbook and other indicators -- both from firms that charge fees and those that don't -- flourished
and received much publicity in recent years due to the bond market's insatiable appetite for
up-to-the-minute economic data in the hopes of predicting the Fed's next move. But unlike 1994,
1995 and 1996, when the Fed frequently moved interest rates, the Fed acted only once in 1997,
and many market participants believe it is on hold indefinitely.

"The only reason you need to know ( economic information ) the second it comes out is if the market
reacts to it," Ryding said. "If the market is not going to react to it, you don't need to know it."

Analysts said the market will ultimately return to trading off economic news. But they said it will be
government data, and not private data, that will mainly move Treasury prices once the market starts
paying attention to economic news again.

"In the long run, the market's tone will be set by the government statistical mills," Sullivan said, "not
what Redbook shows on a given Tuesday afternoon."

Mr. Mick
(Sun Mar 29 1998 06:58 - ID#345321)
Opec to agree on cuts and price hikes.........
Sunday March 29, 4:08 am Eastern Time

OPEC gathers to bless output cut, jack up prices

By Steven Swindells

VIENNA, March 29 ( Reuters ) - OPEC oil ministers were gathering on Sunday to confirm a
landmark output cut with other petroleum producers and strengthen a rally in battered prices.

An emergency meeting of the producer club on Monday is expected to approve its contribution to a
reduction of around 2.3 percent in global output to relieve glutted markets.

Other major producers outside the cartel have taken the unprecedented step of agreeing to cut
output in concert with OPEC, sacrificing 170,000 barrels per day ( bpd ) on top of OPEC's
reduction of 1.25 million.

More non-OPEC cuts could be announced by Norway later this week, raising hopes for a further
rally in the price of the lifeblood of industrial economies from 25-year lows in real terms earlier this

``Our main objective is to reduce the production level which will eventually, hopefully push prices
even higher,'' Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Saud Nasser al-Sabah said in Kuwait before leaving for

He declined to say what price level the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries wanted to
see for the world's most important strategic traded item but added: ``The best we can get ... So far
so good.''

Nigerian Oil Minister Dan Etete was the first to arrive for the meeting.

The agreement with non-OPEC powers, if it sticks, would mark an unprecedented expansion of
influence for the group founded in 1960 to protect the interests of developing country producers.

Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and non-OPEC Mexico agreed in Riyadh on March 22 an accord that has
drawn support from all 11 OPEC members bar Iraq plus Oman, Egypt and Yemen. Norway is
expected to announce its support this week.

Benchmark Brent crude futures closed on Friday more than $2 a barrel higher than when the accord
came to light, the equivalent of $3.50 up from nine-year lows in nominal terms touched earlier this

But markets are keenly watching for signs of whether the promised reductions in output will be any
more effective at supporting prices than the cartel's much-abused quota system.

``We hope it is not going to be an April Fools' Day agreement,'' said a senior Gulf Arab oilman.

One of the group's main priorities will be to avoid any sign of dissension over reducing volumes that
could stampede jittery markets into a price slide.

The West's energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency, cautioned last week that even if the
agreement held it would not reduce all of the excess supply in the market.

IEA executive director Robert Priddle recalled that OPEC has found it difficult to restrain output in
the past under its ramshackle system of production allocations.

But one harbinger of harmony in Vienna was an apparent unanimity of views between Saudi Arabia
and Venezuela on the need to shut in capacity for the common good.

For years the two heavyweights have waged a thinly-veiled war of words over policy, with Saudi
Arabia calling for outpout discipline to support prices and Venezuela pumping at capacity to
maximise market share.

OPEC insiders say the two countries' decision to cooperate to spearhead the pact, along with
Mexico, means the omens are good.

``You will see history repeating itself. It is the story of OPEC's survival all over again,'' the Gulf Arab
oilman said.

Mr. Mick
(Sun Mar 29 1998 07:01 - ID#345321)
Indonesia done with talks???
Sunday March 29, 3:58 am Eastern Time

Indonesia says debt main problem in IMF talks

JAKARTA, March 29 ( Reuters ) - Indonesia said on Sunday that it had concluded most discussions
with the International Monetary Fund on a package to resolve its economic crisis, but ways to tackle
its $74 billion private debt had to be finalised.

``The problem of foreign corporate debt is in fact very difficult,'' Coordinating Minister for the
Economy Ginandjar Kartasasmita told reporters before a round of talks with chief IMF delegate
Hubert Neiss.

``Talks on the other four areas are mostly concluded...only some details remain,'' he said.

The IMF and the Indonesian government have been holding discussions for almost two weeks in five
main areas -- corporate debt, bank restructuring, budget and subsidies, monetary policy and
structural reform.

Neiss said on Friday the IMF believed an Indonesian proposal to resolve the debt crisis using a
model adopted by Mexico in the early 1980s had merit. Ginandjar said some alterations would have
to be made although that remained the basis for the plan.

``Mexico's experience was about 15 years ago,'' he said. ``Some elements ( of their plan ) can be
implemented but there are some elements which are different for Indonesia.''

``There was the South Korean experience recently, we are also studying it,'' he added.

Under an accord struck in New York in late January, South Korean banks were allowed to
exchange $24 billion in short-term, non-trade credits for loans maturing between one and three

Ginandjar said there were three types of Indonesian corporates involved in the debt crisis -- those
which could repay debt, those which had the potential to repay debt but needed help in the
short-term and those which were unable to repay debt.

The government was pushing through a bankruptcy law to resolve the issue of the third group, he

However Ginandjar said he was optimistic the talks with the IMF would be concluded soon.

``It is not easy, but I am convinced,'' he said. ``Our concepts ( on debt ) have already crystallised.''

(Sun Mar 29 1998 07:31 - ID#359316)
I didn't really think you were associated with a cult. It was just the way your first sentence came out. "Bare-Faced Messiah" is a excellent expos of Hubbard, a much better read than anything he wrote. Can't remember who wrote the "Bare-Faced Messiah" book though.
Hubbard good science fiction? You could have fooled me.

If you are long gold after the meltdown, wives will be two a penny, take your pick. Ever think where the expression "golddiggers" came from? They don't say "equitydiggers" do they?

Sorry about the late reply, but 20:39 is 01:39 where I am and I had given up for the night.

OPEC Oil meetings over the weekend... most interesting fact reported is that Norway is in for cuts, did I hear right that they the 2nd biggest producer? Or was it 2nd biggest non-OPEC producer? That leaves only odd places like the UK and Russia, where oil production is up to the private companies. A rising oil price will increase costs, reduce profits, generate inflationary pressures, which should all be a positive for gold.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 07:50 - ID#317193)
Quiet here. Tom

(Sun Mar 29 1998 07:57 - ID#384350)
Consider Norway an exporter over a producer
Norway is a net EXPORTER of oil. Their ranking of an exporter is surely higher than its ranking as a producer.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 08:02 - ID#347457)
SA vers. US Gold Stocks
Looks like Fidelity FSAGX appreciate the potential of SA market. I've just received a proxy from Fidelity where they are seeking to change the current limitation of FSAGX investing only in NA gold companies. The change they want to make will let them invest in worldwide markets. I assume SA is their target. Sure enough, I cheerfully said "go ahead"

(Sun Mar 29 1998 08:06 - ID#317193)
Volitility-this week?
In trying to consider replacement of my stops for this coming week my mind and gut tell me gold will be volitile this week and next. Any thoughts or guesses. Tom

(Sun Mar 29 1998 08:09 - ID#317193)
Franklin Gold has,or at least had, about 25% in RSA shares. Tom

(Sun Mar 29 1998 08:10 - ID#359316)
Stewart Steven, columnist in "The Mail on Sunday" ( UK ) :

"Price Transparency will, in short, be the mechanism which brings the continent into the 21st Century. Europe-wide industries, with their vast home single-currency market, will be forced to cut costs to meet internal competition.

That will be the process which proves for them the opportunity they can now only dream of- and that is to open up their products to markets worldwide. Small businesses, with their low overhead costs, will lead the charge. They will create new employment opportunities.

By the turn of the century Europe will become the centre of the economic universe. It will be the European tiger economies which the world will then be speaking of."

Another argument in support of the Euro becoming the world's "tiger currency", replacing the dollar, which would cause convulsions in the gold markets.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 08:15 - ID#359316)
I disavow the copyright on my 8:10 posting.
"No-one" should be default! Otherwise, I can see aggrieved original copyright owners who are frequently posted here filing lawsuits on Kitco Inc.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 08:18 - ID#333126)
Y2K news: Most Aussie businesses will probably not be prepared on time

tsk tsk tsk. the story just keeps getting better....

(Sun Mar 29 1998 08:29 - ID#410114)
South African Platinum shares
If everyone is hot on SA's gold's, take a look at on of SA 's platinum stocks. The company's name is Platexco ( PGMI ) . PGMI has a 19 milion oz platinum resource which was arrived at by drill results in two well known reefs. The shares trade at $5/sh which gives a market value of $2.20/oz for each oz of platinum. This is better than Rangy, no? Look at this report from David Williamson.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 08:33 - ID#410114)
PGMI trades on the Canadian dealing network SYM ( PGMI )

Bully Beef
(Sun Mar 29 1998 08:55 - ID#259282)
Ventadorm says gold dealer divulging personal info...
Hopefully everyone here realizes when they enter a chat line or give info for a free prize that this info is compiled and sometimes sold to consumer groups. I am not saying that this site is one of those .But suppose you entered a sight on gold ,the person holding the site knows you have interest in it ,and that info alone ,is of value to someone selling gold related items.
There is no other reason to give out personal info. Now that I have stated the obvious... one other thing. Never say anything on the internet that you wouldn't say on the front page of the NEW YORK TIMES.
Suppose you had an aspiring political carreer and someone knew you posted on a site and you had said something not politically correct. This info could be sold. Your aspirations would be finished. I do not infer that this is one of those sites.
I am not talking about paranoia this is common sense.Besides everyone is out to get me.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 08:56 - ID#238295)
word to the dumb
Ted Arnold is saying sell gold and gold stocks on rallies.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:01 - ID#411112)
John Disney/all land grab in a news link from SA

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:03 - ID#17796)
Ted Arnold-the perfect indicator
Mr. Arnold's track record is very good. I beleive he became positive on gold and had a "buy" recommendation at $850 some years ago. Tom

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:06 - ID#427357)

Gold bullion prices are indeed cyclic. In absence of extraneous influences ( war, political unrest in a major area, and/or other international calamities ) , there is a seasonal trend in gold prices.

According to a study made by an internationally recognized financial research organization, "investors should be alert to the seasonality in gold prices." The study covered the 13-year period from 1982 through 19994 -- basically the major portion of the long bear market, which began in January 1980 when gold futures reached $850 per ounce.

The study results demonstrate bullion prices usually begin the year with first quarter weakness - which is worst in March. This is followed by increased strength in the price to August, when gold begins its second weakest month. Subsequently, the gold price trend strengthens to yearend.

The report asserts there may be identifiable reasons for the regularity of the gold cycle. March celebrates the end of the Chinese New Years festivities, the end of the Indian marriage season, and commencement of the Islamic holidays. August weakness is attributed to traditional summer vacation time in Europe. Similarly, the 11 weeks ( three months ) prior to Christmas account for 40% of jewelry sales, meaning good levels of fabrication demand are experienced in September and October, allowing prices to strengthen. And price strength at yearend is also typically "window dressing," since most producers and gold mutual funds use yearend prices for published statement purposes ( Annual Reports to the public ) - and therefore have a vested interest in higher prices, causing prices to be bid up.

Gentlemen, needless to mention we are at the end of the gold's weakest price month ( March ) - albeit bullion prices have ALREADY BEGUN TO RISE. Subsequently, based upon gold's 13-year seasonality study, we should be enjoying higher bullion prices for the next four months. CONSEQUENTY, gold mining stocks should indeed appreciate - perhaps even substantially.

History demonstrates that succeeding bull markets always take out its past highs. This one will be no exception. Consequently, when the looming gold bull market progresses to that stage, we will see each of the above three securities again reach their March 1997 highs. Following are the expected per cent appreciation of these securities. You may verify my figures by going to the websites listed below - just set default parameters for "3-years/weekly and Stochastics for an 8 period, and a Simple Moving Average of 40:

FSAGX will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: ....80%

DROOY will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: .270%

RANGY will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: ..480%

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:10 - ID#427357)

Robnoel: This URL does not work. Pls recheck and post again. Thx

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:11 - ID#285121)
Bargin on Gold Shares yet to come ?
An equities panic and crash will not differenciate between types of stock to a large degree. I believe we will see a fall in mining stocks as well as all others. I do believe that immediately after the first major fall in the market will be the time to buy PM stocks. Some valitity can be put to this theory by taking a look at Oct. 27, 97. I personally will stay with ( The prudent bear fund BEARX ) and some puts until this opportunity presents itself as I do not believe we will see a ( strong ) recovery of gold until after the crash.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:16 - ID#411112)
Sorry going blind....heres main index page..Wits is a university..used to be a good one now?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:17 - ID#238295)
Ted Arnold
T Young: Let's face it -- Ted Arnold despite his earlier bloopers has been right these past few years. But like Andy Smith, the anti-gold mantra has become a religion for Ted. He can no more envision a gold bull than Abby Cohen can a stock bear. There are very few fanantical gold bugs left, but anti-gold fanatics abound.

There is noone so blind as someone who has been correct about a major market trend for a long time, but casually dismisses signs of change. Like Joe Granville in the 1970s.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:21 - ID#411112)
Bully Beef....the road to surfdom promoted by Bernatz..paranoid says it all...power to the Republic


(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:24 - ID#400214)

Hubbard good science fiction? You could have fooled me.

***** Just curious, do you not like his science fiction or did you not know he wrote science fiction?

***** golddiggers? Thanks, I hadn't thought about that. hmmmmmmmm...... Life may get better. I have to be better at being rich than sensitive.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:25 - ID#17796)
Your thoughts may be correct. However, I beleive gold stocks need to rise substantially before any significant fall in them will occur along with the Dow/Nas. correction. Not until the general market participants are buying gold stocks will a panic mindset affect gold mining share prices. Right now, from what the market tells me, few if any, of such participants are now in this market. How low can present gold mining shares go from the mid january lows as of this time? Methinks it is simply a question of where to place your stops. How much risk do you wish to take. That's my dilema at the present. I'm leaning towards stops reflecting a gold price around 290 US$. Just a guess. IMHO. Tom

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:26 - ID#330175)
When Mr.. Wilkins answered the door late in the evening one
day after he'd lost his wife scuba diving, he was greeted by
two grim-faced policemen. "We're sorry to call on you at this
hour, Mr. Wilkens, but we have some information about your wife."

"Well...tell me!" he demanded.

The policeman said, "We have some bad news, some pretty good
news, and some really great news. Which do you want to hear first?"

Fearing the worse, Mr. Wilkins said, "Give me the bad news first."

So the policeman said, "I'm sorry to tell you sir, but we found
your wife's body this morning in San Francisco Bay."

"OH MY GOD!," said Mr. Wilkens, overcome by emotion. Then,
remembering what the policeman had said, he asked, "What's
the good news?"

"Well," said the policeman, "When we pulled her up she had two
five-pound lobsters and a dozen good size Dungeoness crabs on her."

"Huh?" he said, not understanding. "So, what's the great news?"

The policeman smiled, licked his chops, and said, "We're going
to pull her up again tomorrow morning."

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:28 - ID#238295)
Andy Smith
Andy Smith comparing gold bulls to believers in a flat earth. Sounds like Andy and his short selling friend are getting worried. Else why the verbal overkill?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:30 - ID#398105)
Who needs oil ???????

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:32 - ID#238295)
T Young: Your reply to SUSPICIOUS was right on the money. No way will stock break badly until gold shares have had a nice run.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:33 - ID#17796)
Old Gold-the blind leading the blind
I concur. Change is hard to accept. A sure sign of a rally in gold is when non-goldbugs begin to buy. Soon,I beleive,soon. IMHO Tom

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:33 - ID#31868)
The undeniable fact that the US $ is no backed by gold will be
reflected in the price of mining shares NOT diving in a slow spiral down or an "equites" crash. In addition, while Amercians have been lulled into believing that gold is no longer a store of value the rest of the planet knows otherwise.

The youthful market mavens will be brutally informed by the ignorance of their choices to realize that in fact youth is wasted on the young. The US, and the US$ have been riding the crest of a foreign investment tidal wave mixed with the massive inflows of its citizens life savings.

A mere fraction of the equities will throw themselves at the mining shares and the mining shares will explode.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:35 - ID#427357)
FSAGX -- CAN YOU IMAGINE the impact on RANGY & DROOY????
Miro ( SA vers. US Gold Stocks )

REF YOUR: "Looks like Fidelity FSAGX appreciate the potential of SA market. I've just received a proxy from Fidelity where they are seeking to change the current limitation of FSAGX investing only in NA gold companies."

Can you imagine what will happen to the prices of RANGY & DROOY if Fidelity starts to buy into these two exemplary South African gold stocks?! Pls also remember that Fidelity has TWO GOLD MUTUAL FUNDS: AMERICAN GOLD & PRECIOUS METALS.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:36 - ID#285121)
It could be that PM shares will appreciate enough between now and the crash that they will not fall below their lows of receint, however look at the chart for the XAU for October 97. This was only the beginning of a panic, eventhough it was averted by the PPT on the 28th.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:37 - ID#286199)
Platinum and Palladium demand
The Japanese are large consumers of PGMs, largely for their auto industry. They are in recession, and a glut of unsold product exists. Isn't this bearish for the PGMs, at least short term?
The Russians will deliver PGMs, late, just like last year and won't the price will suffer just like last year? It seems to me that some caution is in order. I sold my SWC at 24, and I am interested in analysis on which way the Platinum group metals are going.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:39 - ID#17796)
I KNOW!!! That's why I'm working on my stops. Risk/reward,eh. Tom

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:44 - ID#17796)
You could always buy some puts and quit worrying. IMHO. Tom

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:45 - ID#17796)
I ment could have. Tom

(Sun Mar 29 1998 09:55 - ID#286199)
I'm reconfiguring my account with Fidelity to do options. I am making some money in a non-metals stock while I sort out what to do with SWC.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 10:00 - ID#17796)
It was just a thought. I don't have any gold puts yet-guess I don't mind the worrying-yet. Tom

(Sun Mar 29 1998 10:03 - ID#411112)
For those who have an interest in SA/Rhodesia..from a differant perspective

(Sun Mar 29 1998 10:03 - ID#330175)
Pretty good 'Cat-fight' last night...........................*go Gold*
Good show Earl & Bernatz~~~~~~Time for the 'daily walk' ta see if I can work off some of the sins of last night ( good ) ..bbMl

(Sun Mar 29 1998 10:09 - ID#286230)
vronsky Perhaps because it is early here I can't find a spot to change the defaults on the 3 charts you posted. Clues?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 10:18 - ID#342282)
Cherokee re El Nino positive
You got that right. There are floods and there are floods. Around here we have had some hellbinders, nothing like Ca. We classify the as rising water, toad stranglers and the biggy is a nugget roller. That stuff out there could bring down 10 to 15 pounders. Hope you get some.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 10:25 - ID#288369)
Thanks for posting the Teddy Roosevelt quote the other day. I printed...scribbled a note on it for my I notice that she has it neatly packed away, ready to take back to school with her. A freshman...having a hard time adjusting to tough professors and sorority society....and meat-eating boys...remember? huh?
Anyway...that Teddy was a great damn doubt...had it pretty damn straight... IDCIKSA I don't care I'll kick some ass. Somebody has to.

Printing another for my older daughter flying in tomorrow morn. Bet she takes it back home with her too.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 10:34 - ID#266105)

Fidelity Select Precious Metals ( FDPMX ) in it's
August 31st, 1997 annual report shows holding Durban
Deep ( 15,000sh ) , Harmony Class R ( 913,000sh ) and Randgold
( 815,900sh ) and convertible Randgold, it's only convertible
holding at 1/2mil worth. The annual report ( 12/31/97 ) of
the small Midas fund shows holding DD warrants ( 540,680 )
DD shares ( 430,000 ) , Randgold Exploration ( 200,000 ) ,
Randgold Resources ( 148,909 ) and Harmony options
( 500 contracts expiring 7/31/01. These are past reports,
I have no idea of present holdings within these two funds.

silver plate
(Sun Mar 29 1998 10:41 - ID#289468)
Shoeshine boys and barbers waking up
Last night a well to do neighbor called me and wanted to know where he could buy some gold buillion coins. Out of the blue my sister-in-law

mentioned that she was watching gold and silver prices. The masses are becoming aware.

John Disney__A
(Sun Mar 29 1998 10:48 - ID#24135)
I dont know exactly why I dont like you other than ..
For Heprat
You steal monikers
you are boring
you are humourless

Is that hysterical enough for you .. ??

(Sun Mar 29 1998 10:51 - ID#252352)
Gold Safety
Is it possible that gold could become a safe haven consideration until this Y2 computer problem gets fixed?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 10:53 - ID#431263)
Herr Vronsky--Don't hold your breath on Fidelity buyin' DROOY. Even their SA GOLD FUND ( FDPMX ) has little exposure to this watered-down puppy! More likely they will concentrate on brand new, low-cost mega gold mines like LIHIR 300km. off the coast of Papua New Guinea!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 10:55 - ID#342282)
Haggis re Vanadium battery
You are a real source of pertinent facts and concepts. I appreciate your post about UNSW. Looks like a fountain of great potential. BTW, my damn outgoing email is down again. If you have anything you can post, please do so. Many thanx , Charlie

(Sun Mar 29 1998 10:58 - ID#433422)
jimsy,no doubt, the only true safe haven
.....well.....'cept for ammo, beans,penicillan,fuel,and Cuervo Gold

(Sun Mar 29 1998 11:00 - ID#342282)
Studio.R Tedy's words

(Sun Mar 29 1998 11:07 - ID#348129)
@Jimsy - Y2K
Many are already using Gold as a hedge against Y2K turmoil. But the significant point is that all the Y2K warnings are coming from IT industry experts ( the people that know the subject ) , and not form Gold bugs or other entities that harbor an agenda.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 11:13 - ID#228128)
Durban Deep increases float by 3.7 million?
John Disney: Speed posted a message yesterday about Durban Deep issuing 3.7 million shares for aquisitions. Do you know anything about this? I searched my internet sources including Dogpatch and came up empty.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 11:17 - ID#238295)
Farfel: Your analysis of the different impact on gold of rapid and slow deflation has the ring of clarity and truth. Sudden deflationary collapse potentially very bullish for POG, but slow grinding deflation quite bearish. This is, however, an academic question since we are moving gradually into a period of inflation/stagflation.

History teached us that BIG CHANGES in the economic and financial environment always follow when the stock market gets grossly out of line with reality. Deflation in the 1930s, inflation in the 1970s. Probably stagflation in the new millenium.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 11:17 - ID#431263)
DURBAN Deeeeeeeeep!
There's a reason why they call it DEEP--You need DEEP pockets to get it out!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 11:24 - ID#238295)
SA and NA
Vronsky; Only in the middle and later stages of a gold bull do the SA golds outperform in a big way. FSAGX substantially outperformed FSPMX last week.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 11:29 - ID#431263)
BC to go on Safari! Maybe the lions'll get him after all! Bet he's more secure in the Serengeti than in Washington DC these days, eh?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 11:33 - ID#427357)

It is indeed ironic AND PROPHETIC you named yourself CHEEZEHEAD!! Your ignorance of the gold markets and mutual funds is only surpassed by your inability to read and understand a simple straight-forward report. I refer speicifically to your braying:

Herr Vronsky--Don't hold your breath on Fidelity buyin' DROOY. Even their SA GOLD FUND ( FDPMX ) has little exposure to this watered-down puppy!"
etc etc

Your statement demonstrates you are in NO POSSESSION of current data, or for that matter ANY DATA - and worst, you choose not to know. But as many will say here, you are entitled to your opinion, however spurious and uninformed - yeah, just like my 3-year old nephew.

It would be intersting for you to know FSAGX & FDPMX PERFORMANCE HAS HERETOFORE BEEN PATHETIC!!! They struggle even to keep up with the Gold & Silver Stock Index Average ( XAU ) . So WHY pay a mutual fund to manage your money? My point is the following. FIDELITY knows their record leaves much to be desired. Therefore, they will do the necessary homework ( eventually ) to discover that SOUTH AFRICAN GOLDS repreent the best buys in the precious metals world today - based on total reserves, and more importantly MARKET PRICE FOR THOSE RESERVES. And Mr.Cheezehead, DROOY is one of the most outstanding in this area.

Nonetheless, you have my deepest sympathy... as a closed-mind is indeed
a heavy CROSS TO BEAR... and will prove to be very expensive for you.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 11:36 - ID#238295)
Confidence in SA gold sector still very depressed But if POG goes to $350 this year as I expect, this will change radically.

Mining futures fail to attract a single investor ( Business
Day )

A few days after the introduction of a mining-based South African futures contract not a
single trade had been registered, reflecting investors lack of faith in the sector, analysts
said this week. The contract was listed on Monday to replace the gold shares contract,
which was withdrawn last Friday after the weak gold price hit trading volumes. Analysts
said the lack of interest was compounded by Anglo and De Beers making up half of the
index and a lack of clarity on recent mergers in the industry.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 11:37 - ID#266105)
@brevity is the soul of lingerie

The Sorting Line

A curious fellow died one day and was waiting in a
long, long line for judgement. He noticed that some people,
after they went through the line, were able to go through
heaven's gates. Others were lining up behind satan who was
throwing most of them into the eternal fires of hell. Every
once in a while, though, instead of tossing the poor soul
into the fire, he would toss him/her to one side. After
watching for hours, the fellow could not resist. He gave
up his place in line and went over and tapped satan on the

"Excuse me, sir," he said. "I'm supposed to be in line
for judgement ( didn't want satan to mistake him for someone
who had already been condemned to hell ) but I couldn't help
but wonder why some of these people are being tossed aside
instead of into the fires of hell?"

"Oh," satan said with a snicker. "Those are Oregonians.
They're too wet to burn."

Mr. Mick
(Sun Mar 29 1998 11:38 - ID#345321)
Repost: OPEC jacking up prices
Sunday March 29, 7:51 am Eastern Time

OPEC gathers to bless output cut, jack up prices

By Steven Swindells

VIENNA, March 29 ( Reuters ) - OPEC oil ministers were gathering on Sunday to confirm a
landmark output cut with other petroleum producers and strengthen a rally in battered prices.

An emergency meeting of the producer club on Monday is expected to approve its contribution to a
reduction of around 2.3 percent in global output to relieve glutted markets.

Other major producers outside the cartel have taken the unprecedented step of agreeing to cut
output in concert with OPEC, sacrificing 170,000 barrels per day ( bpd ) on top of OPEC's
reduction of 1.25 million.

More non-OPEC cuts could be announced by Norway later this week, raising hopes for a further
rally in the price of the lifeblood of industrial economies from 25-year lows in real terms earlier this

``Our main objective is to reduce the production level which will eventually, hopefully push prices
even higher,'' Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Saud Nasser al-Sabah said in Kuwait before leaving for

He declined to say what price level the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries wanted to
see for the world's most important strategic traded item but added: ``The best we can get ... So far
so good.''

Nigerian Oil Minister Dan Etete was the first to arrive for the meeting.

The agreement with non-OPEC powers, if it sticks, would mark an unprecedented expansion of
influence for the group founded in 1960 to protect the interests of developing country producers.

Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and non-OPEC Mexico agreed in Riyadh on March 22 an accord that has
drawn support from all 11 OPEC members bar Iraq plus Oman, Egypt and Yemen. Norway is
expected to announce its support this week.

Benchmark Brent crude futures closed on Friday more than $2 a barrel higher than when the accord
came to light, the equivalent of $3.50 up from nine-year lows in nominal terms touched earlier this

But markets are keenly watching for signs of whether the promised reductions in output will be any
more effective at supporting prices than the cartel's much-abused quota system.

``We hope it is not going to be an April Fools' Day agreement,'' said a senior Gulf Arab oilman.

One of the group's main priorities will be to avoid any sign of dissension over reducing volumes that
could stampede jittery markets into a price slide.

The West's energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency, cautioned last week that even if the
agreement held it would not reduce all of the excess supply in the market.

IEA executive director Robert Priddle recalled that OPEC has found it difficult to restrain output in
the past under its ramshackle system of production allocations.

But one harbinger of harmony in Vienna was an apparent unanimity of views between Saudi Arabia
and Venezuela on the need to shut in capacity for the common good.

For years the two heavyweights have waged a thinly-veiled war of words over policy, with Saudi
Arabia calling for outpout discipline to support prices and Venezuela pumping at capacity to
maximise market share.

OPEC insiders say the two countries' decision to cooperate to spearhead the pact, along with
Mexico, means the omens are good.

``You will see history repeating itself. It is the story of OPEC's survival all over again,'' the Gulf Arab
oilman said.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 11:41 - ID#431263)
Argumentum ad hominem arguments are usually the result a pathetically weak mind, mein Herr! What is more, they don't prove a D____thing! Your refusal to acknowledge the obvious superiority of the gold deposit at LIHIR to anything Durban DEEEEEEEEEEEP has is a monument to your pseudo-intellectual pride! Lihir will be mining gold at the rate of 1,000,000-1.2 million ounces long after Durban DEEEEEEEEEEP becomes a watering hole for bushmen and babboons!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 11:51 - ID#233278)
Vronsky; Seasonality of gold prices
Thank You for your interesting analysis,I would like to study the charts you are recommending.But what is the RIC code,I have to use???

(Sun Mar 29 1998 11:52 - ID#426220)

OLD GOLD, I respectfully submit you are NOT up to date on your:
OLD GOLD ( SA and NA )
"Vronsky; Only in the middle and later stages of a gold bull do the SA golds outperform in a big way. FSAGX substantially outperformed
FSPMX last week."

Firstly, if you will check, many many individual South African
gold stocks well-outperformed BOTH FSAGX & FSPMX recently. And
holdings which represent 63% of its entire portfolio. Consequently,
the statement does not support your assertion. Moreover, Fidelity
has recently requested to be allowed to invest in gold stocks outside of the NORTH-AMERICAN area. A careful evaluation of G-O-L-D-EAGLE'S
report, "GLOBAL GOLD COMAPRATIVE ANALYSIS" will show the South
Afican gold stocks as the best buys in the world today. Therfore,
FSAGX desire to buy outside N/A borders is tantamount to declaring
it will buy SOUTH AFRICAN.

For those who wish to verify my comments, pleas call FIDELITY
toll-free NOW ( they work Sundays ) at 1-800-544-7272.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 11:54 - ID#426220)

Observer: What do you mean by RIC Code?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 12:02 - ID#253153)
Good Morning All

(Sun Mar 29 1998 12:09 - ID#199172)
Vronsky & Disney
Great spreadsheet in your Gold Comparison essay!
Is Eland and Elandsrand the same mine?
How is gold refined in RSA? Is it government controlled?
Why can't a mine ( except for Harmony ) do the refining?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 12:15 - ID#255151)
Gold Stocks

Regardless of whether you go for the N.A. or S.A. Gold stocks, remember the following-- If you stand around with your hands in your pockets, you'll feel foolish. But if those pockets have holes in them, you'll feel nuts! Off to work, only 3 more days to BIG BANG. Go Gold!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 12:20 - ID#288157)
Hey--Are They Going into Mining? Ooooooh YES! YES! YES!
March '98
MIGA is pleased to welcome two new members this month. LatinSource is a
network of independent financial advisors from the major economies of Latin America and Member of IPAnet. Likewise, we welcome Ashford International, an international project development firm providing customized microtechnology support solutions to governments, industry and international organizations.

MIGA is organizing the Global Mining Investment Opportunities Symposium which will be held in Montreal on May 4-6, 1998. This event is being held in conjunction with the Centennial Celebration of the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum ( CIM ) . Senior public and private sector officials from over 60 countries have been invited to participate in the MIGA symposium. Over 8,000 mining industry representatives are expected to attend the CIM/CMMI/MIGA conference sessions and exhibition.

COMMENT: Government BECOMES 'commercial business'...don't "tax" 'em--
BE 'em!

John Disney__A
(Sun Mar 29 1998 12:26 - ID#24135)
Money talks ... says strange things
For Mr Cheesehead
Lihir has 42.6 mill oz proved and probable reserves . Their
project cost so far are 800 mill ... Gee I make that 800/42
or 50$/oz and not even any gold yet. then there are
900 million shares ... weee So that 42.6/900 = 0.047 oz
per share ... little gold much paper.
Then if you're lucky you have the PNG government to
contend with .. If you're not .. its the Indonesian
Government ... spears one way .. tanks the other .
Name your poison and ENJOY .... IT .... I'm selling my
Lihir related stuff .. YOU KEEP YOURS AND LEARN

John Disney__A
(Sun Mar 29 1998 12:30 - ID#24135)
You're a funny guy Cheesehead
So were Larry Curly and Moe

(Sun Mar 29 1998 12:31 - ID#288157)
Donald--Would you direct your eagle eye to anything on this out of London? Thnx!
MIGA is organizing a three-week program of seminars and workshops in London, from March 9-27. Agency staff will be available to meet with investors, clients, insurance brokers, and other investment insurers during this time to discuss how its guarantee program can serve the investment community. Sessions will be held at the London offices of the International Finance Corporation, MIGA's sister private sector organization in the World Bank Group. The program also includes a seminar
for insurance brokers on March 12, which will be addressed by MIGA's Executive Vice President, Mr. Akira Iida, and the new Vice President of Guarantees, Mr. Roger Pruneau. Those interested in further information on this program, and insurance brokers interested in receiving invitations to attend the seminar on March 12, please contact Ms. Marjorie Melbourne.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 12:31 - ID#341214)
All: Dave Hall and Power Plant Rollover Tests

I recently came across an article where Dave Hall stated that every power plant Y2K rollover test he had seen had failed. A rollover test is where they set the date on a system to Dec 31, 1999 and then let the equipment function while the date rolls over to Jan 1, 2000. Now, a 100% failure rate is kind of "up there", to say the least. What the article did not state is the number of power plants that were tested. Obviously, the higher the number the more significant is his statement.

Thanks to The Hermit, I was able to get Mr Hall's e-mail address and contacted him about his quote. Our exchanges are found below. We had one hiccup in the communications due to the fact that Mr Hall missed one of my questions and I misinterpreted his initial brief response. FWIW, I added some additional comments after the e-mails.

From: Bob Benson>>>>>
Subject: Seeking Additional Info Re Power Plant Shutdowns During Y2K Testing
Date: Wednesday, March 25, 1998 9:37 PM

Mr Hall:

I came across the following quote attributed to you in a Computerweekly article:

"Every test that I have seen on a power plant so far has resulted in the
operation shutting down within a minute. I have seen tests on
four different water treatment plants, and each time they have either
stopped purifying water or dumped raw sewage on to beaches when the tide was
out," he added.

I'm hoping you can provide me with some additional details on this subject. First, I was wondering if you could tell me how many power plants the Y2K testing failures have occured at. Second, I was wondering if any of the tests were restarted and failed again but in a different way from the initial test. Third, is there an Internet site where I can keep up to date on the subject of power plant Y2K remediation and testing results?

Thank You,

Bob Benson

From: Dave Hall
Subject: Re: Seeking Additional Info Re Power Plant Shutdowns During Y2K Testing
Date: Thursday, March 26, 1998 6:37 PM

Check out the following URLs:

There is one case of the same test being run three times and causing a
different failure each time. You will find that on one of the sites above.

Dave Hall
Year 2000 Infrastructure and Embedded Systems Engineering

From: Bob Benson
Subject: Re: Seeking Additional Info Re Power Plant Shutdowns During Y2K Testing
Date: Thursday, March 26, 1998 9:17 PM

Mr Hall:

Thank you for the URL's. Based on your brief response to me your quote in Computerweekly hardly seems fitting. This is a very serious subject and
the wording of your quote certainly implies that you have seen more
than one power plant shut down as a result of rollover testing. You may
make the point that the quote is true in the literal sense but I would quickly add that it is misleading. That is something we absolutely do not need when discussing Y2K. If, in the future, you can point me in the direction of results from power plant rollover testing I would be very glad to hear from you. In the meantime, I'll look over the sites you suggested.

Thank you,

Bob Benson


From: Dave Hall
Subject: Re: Seeking Additional Info Re Power Plant Shutdowns During Y2K Testing
Date: Friday, March 27, 1998 8:22 PM

You asked if I had seen any tests run several times with different results.
That is the only one I have seen. As to more than one power plant
test, there have been numerous such tests and every one I know of has been of the shut down the plant result ( If the plant had been operating at the time ) .

Tests were done on different plants in different countries, and had similar
results, so my contention is that, so far, there is building proof of my
opinion that utilities will have numerous problems dealing with Year
2000. And that there is no proof that they will not have numerous problems ( proof such as finding no Year 2000 problems during a test in a power plant ) . If tests are run and no problems are found, then I will revise my opinion.

However, every test I have seen and have read about only strengthens my original opinion. If such no-problems-found tests have been done, then I would expect the conducting utility to shout that to the skies.

I do not, and will not, express opinions about anything unless I have
very valid reasons for doing so. My engineering training has at least
drummed that into me.

Dave Hall
Year 2000 Infrastructure and Embedded Systems Engineering

From: Bob Benson
Subject: Re: Thanks for the further details.
Date: Friday, March 27, 1998 11:57 PM

Mr Hall:

Thank you for responding with further details. Perhaps you overlooked my very first question which was:

"I was wondering if you could tell me how many power plants
the Y2K testing failures have occured at."

Your initial response left me with the impression that the one plant with
multiple failures was the only rollover test failure of which you were
definitely aware. The reason I asked the question was to qualify your
statement that such tests at all plants had failed. Obviously, the
higher the number of failures the more significant is your original statement. This kind of data is very hard to come by for someone not connected to the industry but it is of the utmost concern to anyone trying to plan for this event.

I did begin a search over on and noticed there was a new thread regarding the publication of Y2K rollover tests. I'll keep an eye on
that but I don't expect much in the way of revelations from the power

I agree completely with your statement that utilities would be shouting
to the skies if the rollover tests were going well. In this case no news is
bad news.

May I have your permission to post our exchanges at a couple of web sites that I frequent ( one would be Yourdon's ) ?

Thank you for taking the time to deal with my questions. I would surely
appreciate hearing from you in the future if you can point me in the
direction of results of power company rollover tests.

Bob Benson

From: Dave Hall
Subject: Re: Thanks for the further details.
Date: Saturday, March 28, 1998 11:51 AM

No problem. However, missing questions is one sure way to get wrapped
around the axle. Sorry about that.

Dave Hall
Year 2000 Infrastructure and Embedded Systems Engineering

=======End of Exchange====================================

I have absolutely no expertise in the generation of electricity so I must rely on the expertise of others regarding what to expect from the power industry after Dec 31, 1999. Obviously, I'm going to err on the side of caution and prepare accordingly.

Here are some of the questions going through my mind as I contemplate this subject.

Will all of the 9,000 power generation facilities in the US be tested and made compliant by Dec 31, 1999? It hardly seems possible. I assume that the utilities will need to work out a schedule that allows them to take individual power plants off-line for rollover testing. If they don't work out a schedule they probably run the risk of bringing down the grid if too many plants are taken off at the same time. Organizing this schedule will obviously take a long time, something we have little of at this point. Once the testing starts, I'm sure it will quickly get off track. Remember the power plant that Mr Hall mentioned had multiple failures during rollover testing. Well, if I remember correctly, the last failure shut the plant down for 2 weeks! Just like I spend time debugging logic in a program the utilities will have to take time to debug the failures. Debugging is like the first time you go through a tunnel with a curve in it. You know the other end ( the answer ) is out there somewhere but you don't know how long it's going to take to get there. Once you do get through the tunnel there could well be others ahead.

Will the NRC will shut down most or all of the nuclear reactors in late Dec 1999? Based on my reading, I see this as a likely possibility. These folks err way, way, way on the side of caution, as well they should. The nukes provide about 20% of the total power in the US. Current power generation facilities give us the capability to generate about 16% more power over and above what we need. That means if the nukes go down we are already in the hole.

What length of time will there be no power or only intermittent power? One or two days is no real problem but given the lack of preparation up to this point, the short amount of time remaining and the results of early rollover tests is it prudent to plan for just a one or two day outage?

Given the likely possibility we will have power problems, who is going to be out there waiting to take advantage of the situation? As we get closer to the Big Date more people will become aware of what we are facing. Not all of them will be nice people.

There are lots of other questions going through my mind but that covers the most pressing items regarding power. Feel free to call me overly dramatic, an idiot, doom and gloomer or whatever else you feel is fitting but please visit the sites mentioned by Mr Hall ( I'd add Ed Yourdon's site to that list too ) , do your own, what do we call it here, due diligence, and come to your own conclusions. If you come to some of the same conclusions that I did then DO something about it. I see Y2K as a multi-headed fire breathing dragon. The issue of power generation is by far the largest and most dangerous head of them all. If you know your enemy and plan accordingly, you have less chance of getting burned than someone that waits to take action until their arse is afire.

I don't plan to post on this subject much longer. Between now and the end of 1998 I have more to do than I can possibly get done. I hope I have been able to convince at least a few of you to take a closer look at this subject. If you think I can be helpful in resolving some of these issues in your own mind then feel free to contact me at the e-mail address listed in the exchanges with Mr Hall. I'll do my best to respond.

Good luck to you all!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 12:37 - ID#411112) there a conection between MAI(multilaterial Agreement on Investments) and this crowd

Sounds the same to me Governments abdication of sovereignty to Transnational Corporations,which stands capitalisem on its head...reason for confussion....Transnational Corp. have a loyality to its share holders,never does what is good for the country....welcome to surfdom

(Sun Mar 29 1998 12:40 - ID#431263)
Wrong again, John!LIHIR has been producing gold since May of last year and has already produced over 200,000 ozs. of the stuff by now at a hedged price of @ $380-$390 oz. They are running AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND HAVE RAISED THEIR PROJECTED OUTPUT TO 675,000 OZS. THIS YEAR AND 1,000,000 Ozs BY THE YEAR 2000 AT A CASH COST OF $225 OZ. JUST WAIT TILL GOLD SPIKES BY $1,000 OZ! This will be a GOLDEN CASH COW FOR DECADES TO COME AND NO ANC BULLSCHEISS TO MESS WITH! Go ahead, lose your hard-earned capital waitin' for a conservative white gov't. in the RSA, I'm already cashin' in on the superior reserves of LIHIR! CHECK OUT THEIR LATEST QUARTERLY REPORT ON YAHOO! Then see if you can find DROOY'S. ENOUGH SAID!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 12:46 - ID#238295)
Vronsky: Our argument is really just about timing. Yes the SA golds will outperform as this gold bull progresses, but so far THEY HAVE UNDERPERFORMED AS A GROUP. The Toronto Gold Index has done better these past few weeks than the JSE gold index.

But this undeperformance will not last much longer if POG continues to climb. Also agree that FSAGX decision to change its charter does mean they will be buying in SA. Very bullish for the SA shares longer-term

(Sun Mar 29 1998 12:48 - ID#384350)
Barclays Senior Executive Fears Global Crash in 2000

In todays Sunday Times, the lead story in the Money section features a Senior executive at Barclays who warns of the millennium bug.

He has "warned people to sell their homes, stockpile their cash and buy gold in case of a global economic collapse caused by the millennium bug".

The Times goes on to say that this extraordinary warning is echoed by other bank managers who fear a run on deposits.

I say why take chances. The threat of banking complications, be it real or perceived, is likely to lead to a bank run.


(Sun Mar 29 1998 12:49 - ID#411112)
SDRer...sorry left out the er last time check this gov. you are nuts...yeah sure

(Sun Mar 29 1998 12:50 - ID#384350)
Times link

(Sun Mar 29 1998 12:56 - ID#31868)
Kitcocalypse Now
I love the smell of dissention in the morning.

It smells like,..goldbugs.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 12:56 - ID#411112)
SDRer,sorry screwed up URL this will work

(Sun Mar 29 1998 12:58 - ID#411112)
SDRer ,third time a charm

(Sun Mar 29 1998 13:13 - ID#287277)
John Disney--might check out who is attending from your neck of the woods...
( Hey--Are They Going into Mining? Ooooooh YES! YES! YES! Investment GUARANTEES--buy THOSE stocks?!?! )

March '98
MIGA is organizing the Global Mining Investment Opportunities Symposium
which will be held in Montreal on May 4-6, 1998. This event is being held in conjunction with the Centennial Celebration of the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum ( CIM ) . Senior public and private sector officials from over 60 countries have been invited to participate in the MIGA symposium. Over 8,000 mining industry representatives are expected to attend the CIM/CMMI/MIGA conference sessions and exhibition.

COMMENT: Government BECOMES 'commercial business'...don't "tax" 'em--
BE 'em! Thanks!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 13:19 - ID#431263)
LIHIR ( LHIRY ) 26 3/4 UP 2 1/8 ( 8.63% ) DROOY 2 11/32 UP 1/32 ( 1.32 ) Somebody besides me thinks LIHIR is a better deal than DROOY!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 13:23 - ID#31868)
fundaMETAList - I have just gotten
Time Bomb 2000 by Ed and Jennifer Yourdon. Buy it! It is an excellent read.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 13:30 - ID#224149)
We live with our own personal ghosts
Earl Cleaning and eradicating weeds is a full time job unless you use chemicals or a natural pest .If one is to change SA ( eradicate the weeds ) for the better maybe investment blackmail is the answer .I personally will not invest in SA until human rights issues are brought to the forefront and many small steps are taken that lead to political change .We all have different reasons for investing greed, profit and ego are but a few but human rights is first on my list .One dead body is to many. The individual investors in North America will make their own decisions ---- I have made mine. ---Away for some carrot juice

(Sun Mar 29 1998 13:38 - ID#400214)
sharefin (More Y2K) @ Mar 29 1998 01:13
Gee and I thought I was a Year 2K extreeeemist. A very good selection of articles. I spent from 1980 through Dec 1997 in the computer field. Computers are what gave me the money to play futures. So I know enough to be scared.

Everyone seems to be MISSING A VERY IMPORTANT POINT. Everyone is acting
like the computers will refuse to work at all. Just like it does when
the power goes off. In some cases this will happen, mostly having to do
with hardware ( ROM ) problems causing the equivalent of crossed wires in
the system.

In my opinion the reality is that most of the time the computer will GIVE THE WRONG ANSWER and happily keep on working. So the question becomes:

"Are most employees able to recognize incorrect answers, when given by a
computer, and are they competent enough to correct it?"

Which leads to the following questions:

"What about computerized controllers whose outputs ARE NOT CHECKED by
humans, i.e. what could opening the wrong valve in a refinery, power
plant or airplane cause to happen? Even opening it at the wrong time
would be a problem"

"Are government employees going to worry about WHO IS RIGHT when their
computer says that you did X, Y or Z?"

"When the bank's computer says you have $10 in your account, who are they
going to believe you or their computer?"

Scarry isn't it?

If anyone thinks up any other good questions please send them to me.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 13:42 - ID#331205)
RSA smuggling

(Sun Mar 29 1998 13:42 - ID#331205)
RSA smuggling

(Sun Mar 29 1998 13:44 - ID#341234)
Thank you Gianni, ravenfire, sharefin, and all others for the links and discussion on Y2K. I am trying to convince family members that this issue is no joke. Gold is being handed to us on a silver platter. The looming problems are being ignored by the general public. I do not know if "it's here" yet, but it is close enough. Buy gold while it is cheap. The next couple of years are going to be very interesting.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 13:53 - ID#210235)
Most of the nifty 50 came back? I will check this out. My readings on them were some time ago, more than 10 years. Perhaps someday I'll have a chance to chart out their performance and see where they switched from underperformers to overachievers.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 13:56 - ID#288155)
From the MIGA "GOLD" database--first 100 'in depth' 'studies'
contain an astonishing amount of data on a resource that is passe!
#11. "Small-scale Gold Mining Law, 1989 --anyone know what this is?
#24. "Africa Country Assessments: Potential and Exploration Requirements
#27. "Table 4: The Major Gold Producers in South Africa, 1992"
#34. Precious Metals--Production, Processing and Marketing"
#37. "Institution Reform: Strategy for African Mining
#39. "Insitutions of Investments Promotion
#40. Foreign Trade

#42. "General law of Taxation of Mongolia"!!!!
#53. "Labour Law of Mongolia"
#56. "Foreign Investment Law of Mongolia
#63. "Government of Mongolia
#64. "Political and Legal System of Mongolia"
#68. "Customs Law of the Mongolian People's Republic
#69. "Customs Law of the Mongolian People's Republic
#66. Regulation on Establishment of Bonded Warehouse

#92. "List of Companies which have been granted Prospecting/Reconnaissance Lic."
#97. Mines and Minerals Chapter 329 of the Laws of Zambia
#99. "Mining Industry Perspective

Are we not talking "real interest" in the barbaric relic? {:- )
Many countries are listed, but none so often as Mongolia. Mongolia??

(Sun Mar 29 1998 13:58 - ID#31868)
Fred - they can't comprehend it,
so instead of money, try food, sanitary napkins, tooth-paste, toilet paper, fresh water, and then say, ALL GONE. Tell them that each of them is responsible for their own hygiene. If they have not made provisions, too bad, you gave them almost two full years notice.

That ought to get their attention.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:02 - ID#210235)
It's a really cheap shot to throw a Yale degree in economics into an argument over economic theory.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:06 - ID#411112)
I hereby rest my case on communism,"money woes in Asia good for communist's"

(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:07 - ID#286230)
A computer problem may or may not be as important as some think. But if you start to see ads and commercials for water purifiers, food dehydrators, Swiss bank accounts made easy, guru sisters ( gold at 3000 in 1980 ) , silver plates and golden letter openers--buy.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:08 - ID#411112)
Must be the water,try this

(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:15 - ID#411112)
OK last try,its from Newsday International 7.34 AM story..

(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:16 - ID#426220)

for Mr Cheesehead

Our GLOBAL GLOD COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS demonstrates the RSA gold stocks represent the CHEAPEST GOLD RESERVES per share in the world:

 Gold Reserves Per Share

RSA owns nearly SEVEN TIMES more gold reserves per share as North-America

RSA owns nearly FORTY-SEVEN TIMES more gold reserves/share as Australian

 Market Price Per Ounce

- North-America shares reflect a market price of $138.09 per gold reserve ounce

- Australian shares reflect a market price of $172.00 per gold reserve ounce

- RSA shares reflect a market price of ONLY $12.01 per reserve ounce

 Market Price Per Ounce - Expressed Differently

North-America gold reserves are more than 11 TIMES more expensive than RSA

Australian reserves are more than 14 TIMES more expensive than RSA

Mr. Cheezehead, it ain't even close!

1998's big market play will be in South African Gold Stocks

(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:18 - ID#399119)
@robnoel, I keep getting
"Object Not Found" when I click on the last two url's you posted, is it me, or your accuracy on a keyboard? IDCIBM, I am a hardguy too!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:19 - ID#31868)
Try the white keys.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:23 - ID#411112)
Vronsky,Mandela on CNN this morning spoke of a "coup d'etat"did not say who,only that it was ,

within the Milatary,could be boers or Pan African.....something is a foot ....did you read Nesday piece...

(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:27 - ID#411112)
tolarent1,O a little..Reggie White humour....very funny...


(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:28 - ID#411112)
tolarent1,O a little..Reggie White humour....very funny...


(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:31 - ID#411112)
Ease up guys I'am no computer's WebTV,and multiracial...its in colour..

(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:33 - ID#410215)
..... Platinum & Gold .....

EJ wrote @ Sat Mar 28 1998 ( As gold goes up, Platinum goes down ) ID#45173:

I get a lot of precious metal dealers trying to convince me that Platinum is "the precious metal investment for the next decade" at the same time they're saying gold is a the best hedge investment against an economic/political downturn. This doesn't make sense to me. Platinum is an industrial metal. If things go wrong, gold will go up in value while demand for all products, including those that contain platinum, will decrease, lowering the price of platinum. Anyone disagree with my logic?

EJ -

I have been waiting for some time for this question to be asked. Many here know me as rabidly bullish on platinum. Average volatility is about $130 per year in platinum, so there is lots-o-room to trade for profits. Platinum demand is rising at a pace that is outstripping mine production, and the end game will be played with much higher prices.

As an industrial metal, an investment in platinum is as much a bet on continued economic health, as a play in the precious metals. On the surface, one would think that as economies worsened, demand would decrease, and value would fall. We all learned this in economics 101, yes? Platinum defies the standard supply demand picture in a couple of important points.

First, there is simply no substitute for PGMs for many applications and, as auto catalysts, unleaded gasoline, and industrial smokestack emissions, PGM use is mandated by law. There are no laws that force you to own gold or silver, but if you buy a car, or use unleaded gasoline ( PGMs are used as a catalyst to remove lead from gasoline before it ever goes into your car, to then be further processed thought your PGM catalytic converter on the way out ) , you are required to own PGMs. This legal mandate places a floor on PGM use. As each year passes more countries are adding the requirement for auto catalysts, and countries with existing requirements are tightening standards. This offers very powerful support for PGMs.

Your assertion that as economies unwind, and industrial use declines, the price for an industrial metal will fall, is a good one, but does not seem to be the case with PGMs. Rather, when economic uncertainties arise and gold responds by moving higher, platinum gets a kick in the butt and a free ride on gold for awhile. If you look at the history of platinum, you will always find it moving faster and higher than gold as gold rises. For every $50 rise in gold. You will see a $100 or more rise in platinum. This free ride effect is short lived, but will still offer several months lead time to exit any platinum position you may have.

It would seem that platinum offers the best of all worlds. As gold is sick and bedridden, platinum is the obvious choice for profits or long term holding. As gold rises, platinum will rise short term before the fundamentals of use and supply come into play. I invite you to look at an overlay of platinum to gold prices. Only rarely has gold risen above platinum and then only for a very short time. In fact, in a market where sure things are the stuff of dementia, a platinum/gold spread trade when the metals are near parity is a lock. You will always make money on this trade.

Even with much slower world economic growth, PGM use is increasing and will continue to increase. History has proven that platinum is far superior to gold for profits and protection. True, you may not be able to barter bread for platinum, but when it comes down to this, any gun will take all the gold you hold, unless you are also holding more guns that your foes. So the true currency of a crisis is bullets. Lead is cheap, and all the alchemy in the universe will not make your golden bullets more effective than the lead ones.

Everybody here knows that I am a metals trader and who I work for. You also know I trade both sides of the market, so I don't care which direction it chooses, as long as I am on the right side of the move. There is no agenda here to load up the world with platinum. Most of you already own gold, much of which was purchased at much higher prices. Instead of buying more gold to add with the rest, why not diversify within the metals and add platinum?

Platinum will outperform gold and silver in 1998. Count on it, yes?


(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:37 - ID#31868)
Which story? I cannot find a 7:34 story. Title maybe?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:38 - ID#224149)
Anyone got Rat Traps ?
Weeks of the big A now day after day of the big V and so many SA sheep ---MY MY how easy the boiler makers move in ---away to catch BIG SA rats

(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:39 - ID#288155)
FT Friday Mar 27 1998
by Philip Stephens [Excerpts]

"The Money Masters"
"The secretive society of central bankers has accumulated a great power without accountability. Citizens will demand redress"

"Central bankers are the masters now. Presidents and prime ministers may play at war and peace. They can prance abroad and posture at home. But money is different. Leave the politicians in charge of our money and they will debauch it. They freely admit as much. We are to put our trust instead in greyer men in darker suits. These guardians of price stability have been tip-toeing from the shadows for some time.

The euro will change everything. We have heard a thousand times that economic and monetary union is a political project, a venture to bind Europe to a peaceful future. The economics was an afterthought. That's true. Yet EMU is also the final victory of the central bankers. In 11 of the European Union's 15 nations, the unique power to create money and to set the rate at which it is borrowed and lent will henceforth lie with a new central bank.

The ECB, as it is known, will have awesome authority. It will ultimately detrmine the living standards of 300m people in a currency zone that
produces 20 per cent of the world's output of goods and services. It's president will be the most powerful man in Europe. Two men , Wlm. Duisenberg and Jean-Claude Trichet, are bidding for the post. One is Dutch, the other French. Both are steeped in the orthodoxy of their institutiions. Both are barely known beyond them. I cannot recall a moment in history when so much power was so eagerly relinquished.

Yet Europe's new central bank represnets a quantum leap. The Fed is independent within the US system of government. Even the Budesbank can sometimes be overruled by the politicians, as it was over German unification.

The ECB is being built behind impregnable walls.
We are told to be content with this brave new world of technocrat as autocrat. It is the way of the future. Global markets are unforgiving. Feckless politicians cannot be left to take on the bond traders. Like citizens of Plato's Republic, we will rejoice in the rule of the philosopher kings. I doubt it."

"The Central Banks" by Majorie Deane and Robert Pringle ( Hamish Hamilton ) is an excellent account of the rise and rise of the central banks.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:41 - ID#411112)
RJ,You said a very telling thing...its not getting on you or anything,just that the folks who drive

the market care less for logic and reason,it's the action stupid,movements either way is where the money is ,kind of like or lose the bookie wins

(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:45 - ID#411112)
tolarnt!:7.34AM it's still there,Asia money have to scroll down


(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:45 - ID#431263)
If DROOY is so blasted cheap why does it stay so blasted cheap? And don't tell me it's bad PR--Kitco and Golden-Eagle have been vehicles for singin' its 'praises' back before the merger when its was supposedly BLYDY that was gonna' blast off for sea level. I remember well all the weeping and gnshing of teeth over the heart-stopping losses Blydy was ringing up for the poor suckers who sank their "wisdom" teeth into that fiasco! Then, suddenly, BLYDY REVERSED SPLIT 3 for 1 and promptly plunged from a reverse split $6.00 down to a couple of bucks or less before it got merged in with Durban and co. What a freakin' fiasco!
And now. suddenly, we're to believe all is well if'n we could only get gold a couple of bucks north of $350! Gott im Himmel! Even Mandela and Brother Qaddafi ain't that stupid! Sheesh!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:52 - ID#31868)
I used my good eye this time, found it.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:53 - ID#411112)
SDrer,SCREAM as loud as you want,this subject causes eye glaze..the only time the GDP will pay

attention is when its to late,Africa has been there testing ground,now the big prize...yeah I know we are all crazy

PH in LA
(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:56 - ID#225408)
Kitco technical question
Would the person who posted the following mind revealing how it was posted so that no miniker was included in the post?

Date: Sun Mar 29 1998 12:09
( Vronsky & Disney ) ID#199172:
Great spreadsheet in your Gold Comparison essay!
Is Eland and Elandsrand the same mine?
How is gold refined in RSA? Is it government controlled?
Why can't a mine ( except for Harmony ) do the refining?

Please be assured that the question is not an idle one. Your cooperation will be greatly appreciated.

PS. Also feel free to answer anyone who knows how this has been done.

PH in LA
(Sun Mar 29 1998 14:59 - ID#225408)
Typo update to 14:56 PH in LA post
Miniker=moniker in my 14:56 post...but you probably already knew that!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 15:08 - ID#342282)
SDR er re Miga 100 !!
Where did you get this? I would be interested in anything like this in US. I'm familiar with most laws/regs , but this is a wild shot off of what I know. You can go hunt squirrels and hunt for gold, but if you are wirking on private property in the US, get the owners permission. The Fed lands are a different story now days. The way gold occurs in nature is without respect to who owns the land, so you have to be careful. Let me know. Thanx, Charlie

(Sun Mar 29 1998 15:11 - ID#359316)
ALL and HARDCASE 13:38
HARDCASE made a good point about the type of errors caused. My favourite errors are the ones that cause everything to shut down, explode, or print @$!@#%#$^%#$%^$%^#@$% ad infinitum all over the monitor. These types of errors are, you might say, "in your face" and must be fixed. Furthermore it is obvious when the error is present and when it is not. It is also fairly straightforward to isolate the cause. The very worst type of error, whether in software or hardware, is the intermittent error, which is difficult to repeat for debugging purposes, or occurs only for very peculiar sets of conditions. These bugs could be in your system for months and you wouldn't know it. Example: The famous Pentium bug. Another example: Enter 1.40737488355328 into certain earlier versions of Excel spreadsheets and you will get a different number! These are the insidious types of errors that will have the potential for undetected damage in Y2K. They could also show up some time after January 1st 2000. Inspect your bank accounts very carefully. These types of errors could also be the undoing of businesses that think they got through the 1st of January 2000 but missed the insidious type of bug. So a goldbug mentality will be good for self-protection for a time after January 1st 2000. Allow enough time for the situation to reveal itself in full and don't rush to sell the physical, that is what seems to be the message.

Incidentally, HARDCASE, if you enjoy Hubbard's SF then why not. Whatever... taste is relative.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 15:15 - ID#359316)
I disavow the copyright on my last post
Pshaw and a pox on "Author/Kitco" default.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 15:16 - ID#224149)
RJ and LBG know something
RJ  I purchased Maple leaf Platinum coins about 10 days ago 656.89 Canadian ---This Friday 693.09 from RM ---5.5% increase in ten days I agree platinum has a long way to go. The Bart RMC is still the best deal to date.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 15:18 - ID#317193)
I Love It
I love it when the kids argue over which candy is better,i.e.,which gold mining stocks are better. F* would be ( is ) proud. In just a few short days the discussion has gone from which companies are going to file BK to which companies are going to have the best rise in share price. Does anyone realize the nature of the change in the tone of the discussions? BTW,just in case gold goes down for a few days, if you would be so kind as to sell your gold shares, it would be greatly appreciated by those of us who will be buying. Place your stops just in case the totally unexpected happens. IDCIBM ( courtesy of GOD and F* ) Tom

(Sun Mar 29 1998 15:23 - ID#255284)
Off topic Ron Hubbard SF
Ohh, my poor, poor memory
L Ron Hubbard met John W Campbell in the golden days of sf. John W Campell, then editing Amazing SF ( ? ) convinced LR to write for his mag. JWC later, convinced LRH to develop a SF story, it became Dianetics which became scientology, made LRH pots of $ and twisted some otherwise fine minds. Some of LRH's earlier short stories are quite good, he wrote under many pseudonyms, fortunately i remember none. His latter works excruciatingly bad, imho, he never devloped from the '40s, I suspect they were ghost- written.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 15:25 - ID#384350)
@John Disney South Africa Residency
Thanks for the offer. I've been meaning to pick me up a farm.

I got a book here. It says that South Africa encourages white immigration and will provide economic assistance and pay passage for the able-bodied. Also says that you can live very well on $20,000 a year as food, housing, and servants are inexpensive.

Criminal penalties apply to having undeclared foreign assets. A foreign trust will keep your offshore income tax free.

It says RSA is a good place to go and make a quick nest egg. After when you should be prepared to leave when or if the proverbial brown stuff hits the fan.

The book talks of "Financial Rand" where a foreigner is able to convert into Rands at favorable rates giving a 20-40% bonus.

Is this true Mr. Disney? Hey I'm white. Will they really pay my passage to RSA? What other economic benefits are there? And does buying a farm qualify for favourable exchange rates? How much does a farm house cost on a couple hundred acres in a safe part of RSA?
Hey, we might even be neighbours some day.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 15:30 - ID#252150)
Prometheus@Nifty 50
You don't have to chart them out. It's all done for you in this weeks Barron's. I'd repost it if I could, but for some reason my browser doesn'nt permit me to repost from Barron's. I would imagine though, that
although those investors who bought the nifty 50 @ the top of the mkt were eventually made whole, they were probably under water for 15-20 years.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 15:32 - ID#384350)
Currency Restrictions @all
Does South Africa still have currency restrictions?

I heard of a gimmick. One could buy 1st class or full fare airline tickets with cash ( check? ) and then when they arrive in their destination, they simply redeem the tickets for cash.

Is this feasible?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 15:44 - ID#330175)
'Burnin one'-----------------------------------*go gold & $$$
spruce log in the fireplace that is....Just had a visit from Eddie and our mutual friend from Newfieland ( Marty--the cow ) --whatta!---guess somebodies gotta do 'it',huh..

(Sun Mar 29 1998 15:51 - ID#233278)
When I enter the sites,with a chart,there is scheme to be filled out,I dont know the code for the goldcharts.Can you explain me how I find the charts on the sites you are recommending?
Thank you in advance

(Sun Mar 29 1998 15:52 - ID#287277)
Chas@World.Bank.PrivateSector.dB.outof.MIGA.IFA The way they hide information is the Purloined Letter approach [my opinion only, and --of course-- I am starkers...

One must register for the net is somewhat daunting as the example they give , to illustrate you must give your region of operations is: Minister of be sure to enter your title in that way [chuckle, chuckle]

The list I came up with was a full text search on the enigmatic term gold. They will only give you the FIRST 100 documents, so if you are interested in a particular thingy youll have to construct a decent query.

Robnoel@Eyes.Glaze.Over Sigh. How well I know. Ive become an expert in the EGO conversation. At that is just within my immediate circle of family. Which is why I consider Kitco not only an information resosurce, but a MENTAL HEALTH resource! {:- ) )

(Sun Mar 29 1998 15:53 - ID#426220) a discussion with my 3-yr old nephew

Mr Cheezehead: In REF to your latest braying:

"GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD ( HERR VRONSKY--ANSWER ME THIS ONE! ) If DROOY is so blasted cheap why does it stay so blasted cheap? And don't tell me it's bad PR--Kitco and Golden-Eagle have been vehicles for singin' its 'praises' back before the merger when its..."

Frankly I stopped reading at this point, because you are NOT ONLY ill-informed, but make up information in an futile attempt to support your spurious arguments.

Firstly, DROOY is not "stay ( ing ) so blasted cheap." since its low of a couple of months ago, it has reached a high of about 3.73 - that represents a rise of 161% from January's low. And although the entire gold stocks market has been soft since January highs, DROOY IS STILL UP 63% from this year's low.

Secondly, your comment, "...and Golden-Eagle have been vehicles for singin' its 'praises' back before the merger when its..." That is totally FALSE statement. G-o-l-d-E-a-g-l-e only began mentioning DROOY about three weeks ago. At best your slipping mind is embracinging senility, at worst you are a blatant liar.

Rest assured I no longer have interest in responding to further braying from you - because it's about as productive as a discussion with my 3-yr old nephew about the same subject.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 16:00 - ID#426220)

The following URL will give yoy the DRROY chart

When you want the RANGY chart, just type "RANGY" into the small
window in the middle right-side of the above webpage.
The window is labeled "Get Quote and chart" Then ENTER it

(Sun Mar 29 1998 16:01 - ID#329157)
You have discussions about Durban Roodeport Deep with your 3 yr old nephew? My 2 year old son can say "stock market crash".

(Sun Mar 29 1998 16:02 - ID#340302)
South African GOLDS VS. North American GOLDS...
...and the tragedy of a united front in the gold market.

As I posted previously, one of the hallmarks of DOW success has been the the de facto union of the mutual funds in targeting DOW stocks aka index purchasing. Regardless of what economic acti*ity these various DOW companies pursue, the mutual fund index purchasers make no distinctions. They follow a very simple cash inflows to these darlings and the rest of the market will follow their upward path. Negative info pertaining to any of these DOW stocks is always transmuted into positive info...or else denied completely. There are no genuine debates amongst the major mutual funds as to which DOW stock is better than the other. From the mutual funds perspectives, all the DOW stocks are great...some maybe greater than other...but certainly they are all choice investments from their perspective and fund inflows are distributed quite equally amongst them.

On the other hand, in the precious metals arena, goldbugs seem unwilling or unable to unite in purpose. They choose instead to evidenced by the interminable debate as to whether South African golds are better or worse than North American golds. This debate is nothing less than a tragedy. Why? Because the net result of such division is that the Wall Street investors end up learning ALL NEGATIVES about each type of gold company, both S.A. and N.A. As such, who can blame them from wishing to avoid the PM sector entirely?

It really would be best if goldbugs would extoll ALL MAJOR gold stocks and expunge any negative criticisms from their vocabulary. Then, Wall Street investors would be more inclined to purchase them.

I know that I am as guilty as many other KITCO posters for denigrating specific gold companies. For example, as many of you know, I am not in love with Barrick Gold, not so much because it is a bad company. Instead, I simply resent the hedge position they took back in '96 which I feel harmed many other gold companies including some of my key gold investments. The truth is that Barrick is a wonderful, genius gold producer...the smartest, shrewdest gold producer of the decade. It's difficult for me to admit this...yet the facts speak for themselves. However, I have made a decision recently in the face of a potential and incipient Gold Bull to avoid any criticism of any gold companies from this point on. Repeat. I refuse to say anything negative about any gold companies from now on.

These negatives are used constantly against us by Wall Street. After all, who knows the negatives of these companies better than goldbugs?? We would be much smarter in adopting Wall Street index methodology and extoll ALL GOLDS to the heavens. Analogously, we should continue to highlight the negatives of DOW and Nasdaq stocks because, God knows, Wall Street never seems so inclined.


(Sun Mar 29 1998 16:02 - ID#304282)
DOW 20,000
Peter Gibson, chief strategist for Scotia Capital Markets, is talking about the Dow "quite handily" hitting 10,000, while Salomon Smith

Barney's veteran technical analyst, Alan Shaw, says that if the market continues to track the way it has, the industrial average will hit

20,000 by the years 2002-2003. That's 10 times the level it was at only a decade ago and would make a lot of fully invested aging

boomers very, very wealthy.

Why would I think this is mania?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 16:07 - ID#41385)
Is Gold about to rise with May Central Bank announcement & what about 299tons of gold sold?
Hi....I am a grandfather on Horse Lake...central know ..Canada!

Does anyone else find it strange that the central bank sold 299 tons of gold basically to itself...just another branch? Could it be they are merely trying to bring the price down by dumping just the right amount on the market...& than buy it back? Last I read they owned 68% of the world's with the Central Bank to announce the mechanics/details of how gold is to back the new central currency in May you feel gold about to rise ?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 16:10 - ID#252127)
Yep Mr Golden Cheese Head

When those South African Miners start demanding and receive a decent wage, all SA golds are going to be in real DEEEEEEEEEP Dung.
Add to the possible increased labor costs; the cost of cooling workings heated by hot rock temperatures and the cost of bringing cool fresh air down one mile plus; its not cheap. Pumping water uphill against a head of 5000 feet plus cost money also. Then their is upkeep and energy costs. SA gold mining problems look unsurmountable, not to mention the others.
Hell; South Africa can always do a competitive devaluation, you know lower their currency -spelled wages- against the dollar and be payed in dollars for their product.
But crap, currency manipulations are the damn reason why gold stays stagnent and the US wants a strong dollar. I read as this as Sec. Rubin wants a weak gold price so that we can have more of the same ole same ole.
I quess the US social planners are convinced that the dollar must remain strong, or the whole country dumps.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 16:11 - ID#258129)
A few days ago I got a newsletter for businesses from my bank regarding EURO. Among other things there: all business accounts can be converted into EURO starting from Jan 1, 1999. Conversion is free of charge. Up to every company to decide, when convert account ( s ) . If conversion is not done yet, account will continue to "live" in national currency. All transactions on bank slips will be pictured in two values - national currency and EURO. The difference before and after conversion: before - first amount in national currency, then in brackets - EURO, after conversion - other way around. There are no extra costs for this double figures. It looks like these fellows are ready.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 16:24 - ID#340302)
...and the tragedy of a united front in the precious metals market.

Just as there is a debate amongst goldbugs regarding the relative merits of North American and South African golds, there is an analogous battle between gold bugs and silverbugs.

Once again, let me reiterate: mutual index funds on Wall Street have united over the past decade to target cash inflows to ALL major DOW stocks and specific Nasdaq darlings. This has been the secret to the astounding success of this bull market. Regardless of what the mutual fund managers feel are the relative merits of these index stocks, the cash inflow gets distributed quite equally amongst them. For example, they don't care if Disney has a much higher growth rate than Wal-Mart. From their perspective, they are all wonderful investments.

On the other hand, precious metals investors act as selfish, independent units, extolling one sector and deprecating another sector. On this forum, there is a neverending debate between gold vs. silver. Silverbugs proclaim that the central banks will dump their entire gold reserves at any moment, thus gold is headed for the toilet...while goldbugs declare that silver is a manipulated market with vast concealed oversupply. The net result: Wall Street learns ALL THE NEGATIVES about each respective sector. Is it any wonder that Wall Street then avoids investment in the entire precious metals sector?

I suggest very strongly that it is in the interests of all precious metal investors to focus on the positives of each PM market and expunge the negatives from their vocabulary. In other words, adopt the methods of Wall Street index fund managers. Certainly, in the face of a potential precious metals bull market, I refuse to say anything negative about any metals...not about gold or silver or platinum or palladium. As far as I am concerned, they are all wonderful investments...they are all heading for the moon.

Sometimes I think that the divisions and battles existing between precious metals investors is instigated by various Wall Street equities and bonds bulls in order to ensure that the same unity of purpose that raised equities to such lofty heights this decade never manifests itself in the precious metals arena. Of course, if I believed in this theory, then I would probably be decried as "just another goldbug conspiracy theorist."

Yet, although I am cynical about most conspiracy theories, sometimes what looks like a conspiracy really is a conspiracy.


(Sun Mar 29 1998 16:25 - ID#287277)
Risk Free Investments--which may be the REAL new paradigm...
"MIGA has focused substantial efforts on encouraging the flow of foreign direct investment into Africa. Since 1991, when MIGA signed its first guarantee for a project in Africa, it has issued approximately US$190 million in coverage for approximately US$1.2 billion of foreign investments in nine African countries. The investments cover a broad range of sectors--infrastructure, agribusiness, financial, manufacturing, and MINING--and have brought significant developmental benefits, including the transfer of modern technological know-how, to recipient countries.

MIGA's approach is two-pronged: first, it works actively to encourage foreign investors to venture into the region by insuring their investments against certain political risks; and second, it provides a variety of technical assistance services and legal advice to its members in the region to help them attract foreign investment. MIGA membership in the continent currently includes 40 countries; seven others are in the process of fulfilling membership requirements."

Now, would anyone like to place a small wager, concerning the WB/IMFs frenzy over Idonesias reluctance to obey IMF format? Could it be...frown, feigned puzzlement....that there are GUARANTEE CONTRACTS in Idonesia [gasp of wonderment]....and that is why they will eventually go with whatever plan with which Jakarta is willing to agree! To let the game go forward?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 16:27 - ID#41385)
Gold to back new central currency, Reuters News
Bob on Horse Lake B.C., here.

In responce to Delphi...I find that interesting about new currency & how they will do things but have seen rules change very quickly at the last minute to inconvenience we people.

Would you think gold will rise quickly before the May announcement...or after it?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 16:31 - ID#376309)
Date: Sat Mar 28 1998 18:14 jims ( To Glen at 14:28 ) ID#252391:
Enjoyed your perspective in your post timed at 15:28. Timely that some of these conspiracy theories be deflated. As you seem to know something about the workings at the COMEX perhpas you have a comment on a story I read that silver inflow to London totalled 300 million oz in the first two months of '98. How big are the London stocks, is London trading at a premium or discount to New York? - a couple of questions I have.

Supposed 40% of the inflow tookl care of Buffett's acceptance.
Answer ---
I have no idea how big the silver stock are in london. This is truely the $1,000,000 question and many traders would love to know the answer. None of the traders on COMEX Floor truely know that answer either. London is currently trading at a premium over New York silver.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 16:32 - ID#330175)
Aurator..................................*I will GOLD to soar*
G'Day blood-bro.......Still can't get over my recent guest ( Marty from Newfieland ) ...and his 'job'---collecting bull sperm and impregnating innocent ( ? ) cows---he commutes between mainland Nova Scotia and Newfoundland----knockin em up & MOI are only a 15 mile drive to the 'Newfie ferry' landind in N.S,so we're a convenient stoppin place in the enternal search for bull-sperm...Time foe a new musac! ( Tattoo You ) ....'stop me up me up'.....'Don't make a grown-man cry'....LVF ( EH! )

(Sun Mar 29 1998 16:35 - ID#340302)
...the negatives about gold and silver and platinum and palladium must be avoided like the plague.

These negative analyses and prejudices are used constantly by Wall Street and the Precious Metal shorts to drive down the values of precious metals. The perceptive gold bull who speaks against silver...the incisive silverbug who besmirches gold..whether they realize it or not, they end up ultimately harming their own investment interests. The battle perpetuates itself and it is a NO-WIN battle.

It is in the best interests of Precious Metals investors to focus on the positives of the metals & their respective producers in order to provide fuel to the incipient metal markets bull. There are already more than enough enemies on Wall Street and amongst the PM shorts to ensure that negative info pertaining to metals is disseminated broadly.

Again, I reiterate: I am as guilty as any other Kitco poster for denigrating certain producers, etc. However, I will not pursue a policy of negating the values of any producers any further. If asked, I will simply state: "They are all truly great!"


(Sun Mar 29 1998 16:38 - ID#384350)
farfel, jp, et al Deflation/Inflation
Past periods of deflation has been marked by an unwinding of credit, a glut in capacity, and a drop in demand amongst other things.

Credit levels in the US may be peaking. However, because gold is not used as the currency, there are no limits to the amount of paper dollars that can be created in an eventual unwinding of credit.

The lack of a gold standard allows governments to try and print their way out of trouble. Are the Asians experiencing deflation? Let's see. There is a glut of capacity, an unwinding of credit, and a sharp drop in demand. But most of their currencies have plunged.

If you look at the price of commodities per ounce of gold as a currency unit, then there is deflation in Asia. If you use Rupiahs, there is nasty inflation.

I don't know about where you live, but here in the last year the price of food seems to have risen by around 5-10%, real estate 10-20%, businesses ( equities/shares ) around 30%. Isn't this inflation?

The type of deflation that we are likely to see is that of equities and real estate which have both dramatically outpaced inflation in recent years.

In a related matter, checkbook banking is inflationary, given a fractional reserve system. If people everywhere held cash instead of leaving their money in the bank and writing checks on that money, Banks would fall below their reserve requirements and would not be allowed to lend money.

This is why just the mere threat of year 2K problems in the banking sector might spur a bank run of epic proportions. If banks have to pay out cash then they will be forced to either borrow from the fed, call in loans, and stop new lending. Likely all three will happen.

I went to the bank last week and asked what kind of interest I would receive on quite a large deposit. Their response: 0.6%. All the sheeple getting no or very little interest on their savings/checking accounts will surely pull their money out of banks and sweat out the new millennium in cash. Why would they take the risk of leaving it in the bank. Faced with this scenario won't the Fed will be pumping like crazy. And if they ease credit to an extreme, what will happen after 2000?

Comments appreciated.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 16:40 - ID#376309)
a bullish note
Gold closed above the previous 20 day high on friday. A techincal break-out. can it continue????

(Sun Mar 29 1998 16:47 - ID#340302)
CORRECTION TO POSTS: 16:02 & 16:24...
First lines should read:

16:02...and the tragedy of DIVISION in the gold market.

16:24...and the tragedy of DIVISION in the precious metals market.


(Sun Mar 29 1998 16:55 - ID#288369) too many peyote buttons....
back in the early seventies... ( used only for religious purposes, I might add ) but am I seeing things? huh? My version of the frames version has infoseek on the top and bottom. Lord, just let me be the way I was...I repent...please Lord. studio.highandhellbound. Go Gold ( not to hell ) !

(Sun Mar 29 1998 16:55 - ID#41385)
to Glenn & all

Bob from Horse Lake,B.C., Canada, here

This time....I think metals are on their way up. Would like to know if anyone knows how to get up to date gold quote on a Sunday morning of the Asian Market which is some 13 hrs ahead of us or the Australian which is approx.18hr.ahead of us. Right now Gold should be trading in Australia...anyone got that web site? I have to dash....grandchildren
just arrived.

Please email me.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 17:00 - ID#238295)
Robert Franklin: You can sure the insiders will know the details of the EMU gold reserve policy before a public announcement is made. Whatever POG is going to do in response, most of it will be over before that long awaited press release.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 17:01 - ID#432157)

(Sun Mar 29 1998 17:08 - ID#258129)
@ Robert FRANKLIN__A
Thanks for reply. I think, future Gold backing of EURO is already influencing the price. In fact, it is known for some time, that EURO will be backed by Gold, but now there are more and more messages in media about it. I had January information about 15% backing, few days ago there was a message in press [from Italy] about 30%. For sure we will know only after May 2. IMO, after this 30%, if finally figure will be less, it can have negative effect. I think, that some European CBs will be glad to rise this percentage: book price of Gold in many national CBs are much lower then market price, while ECB should book it or by market price, or by some value, based on market price.
I have tried to access Your link, but without success.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 17:08 - ID#288157)
Floor Trader error "like" pilot error?
FT--Frid Mar 27 1998

The London Metal Exchange has fined Deutsche Sharps Pixley Metals, A Deutsche Bank subsidiary, 90,000 pound for two breaches of its rules.

...Deutsche had failed to report certain large positions held by itself and its clients between Ocotber 1996 and June 1997 in accordance with exchange's rules.

A disciplinary committee also concluded that Deutsche had further broken LME rules by failing to ensure proper training and supervision of the staff responsible for producing the large position reports."

(Sun Mar 29 1998 17:08 - ID#431263)
Herr Farfel--OK, you've got a good point. Goldbugs are their own worst enemy! I repent. Never again will I take aim at another goldbug, or another Bre-ex, or another Pegasus, or another Blydy, or another Rea, or another Ryo, or another IPMCF or another Delgratia, or ANY OTHER GOLD MINING FIASCO! I will simply keep my mouth shut, watch the carnage from A FAR-fel, and thank my lucky Maple-Leafs that I was fortunate enough to do my own due diligence and avoid 'em! I apologize to Herr Vronsky and to Herr Disney and to anyone else whom I may offended with my biting satire! I DO APPRECIATE THEIR POSTS AND PRAY THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO POST! My only request from them is that they do the same! Farfel's right! If true goldbugs cannot agree to disagree and put their personal disagreements, prejudices and egos aside in the interest of a PM BULL MARKET every bit as insane as the present paper one, then we have no one to blame but ourselves if no one buys gold or gold stocks ever again. C'mon, Kitcoites! Smile! Be happy! Feel good! The gold bull is just beginning, and before its over it will have converted everybody! Then even the DURBAN DEEPS of this world will fly like eagles ( if'n they can get it out of the ground and keep it outa' the clutches of the ANC. ) Scheiss! There I go again! Won't I ever learn? : )

(Sun Mar 29 1998 17:12 - ID#41385)
In responce to my comment ...You are right "Old Gold" we may be the last to hear about new currency plans, & "Geoff" wondering where Horse Lake is half way between Kamloops & Williams Lake in know....Canada...just below Alaska..Ha! Click on to my photo of my spot in town but we live 4 miles out on Kokanee ( Land locked salmon ) filled lake. Grandkids here....I really have to dash this time.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 17:15 - ID#288157)
HK Business Post, Mon Mar 29 1998

Taiwan's Formosa Plastics Group says it wll go ahead with a US$7 billion ( HK$54.6 billion ) thermal power plant in Fujian despite a
Taiwan government ban on investing on the mainland. Group chairman Wang
Yung-ching said on Sunday he would go ahead with the investment and seek a meeting with new Premier Zhu Rongji.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 17:16 - ID#31868)
farfel - so you want us to sound like the equity clowns? I don't think
so. Everyone here believes in the metals. Well, most, anyway back at the subject. Heated conversations are healthy.

United yes, uniform message, not from Cuervo Central. Sorta like each to their own under a common flag eh!

I will stick to the way I think and spout my thoughts right from where there they always come, unrestricted and straight from the heart.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 17:18 - ID#347235)
A Robert Franklin
You are already on the best source front page of this site has quotes from London New York and Asia Live today it is 304 and change

(Sun Mar 29 1998 17:21 - ID#341214)
tolerant1: Thanks for the tip...
I've been reading parts of it here and there. I've been reading so much of the subject on the web the past few months that most of the what is in the book is already known to me. The best thing I can do with the book now is to get copies of it into the hands of others.

I've actually grown sick of reading about the subject of Y2K in general. Every week I look for a glimmer of hope out there and every week I am disappointed by more and more and more bad news. And it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. The best thing now is to focus on my preparations or I'm going to end up in one hell of a depression.

You folks best listen to Allen. He's good with words and has a good handle on what's coming down the road.

See ya...

(Sun Mar 29 1998 17:21 - ID#288157)
HK Business Standard, Mon Mar 29, 1998
Currencies perk up as IMF deal nears
SINGAPORE: Asia's troubled currencies were expected to continue recovering against the US dollar this week with Jakarta and the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) close to signing a third pact to restore Indonesia's economy.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 17:22 - ID#288369)
Glug! Fire from the throat. I learn a lot from the juxtas....after all and first of all...that's our very nature. Go Goldbugs! I don't like aluminumbugs at all.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 17:27 - ID#41385)
To Delphi & all

Thanks for comments but on Sunday mornings even the fine Kitco people do not have the Asian up todate gold/silver prices.

Also I see my one web site photo does not come up for some reason...but the other does at;

Forgive us on Horse Lake in central B.C. ( you know just above Washington ) some of us don't even have a radio.. ( just joking! ) My wife is calling me to come downstair ...logging off.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 17:34 - ID#288157)
Obviously, the Americans-wheat-people are a LITTLE out-of-touch {:-(((
HK Business Standard, Mon Mar 29, 1998
Americans dig in on wheat-sale ban

By Michael Chugani in Seattle

LEADERS of America's wheat-growing industry have said they will block China's entry into the World Trade Organisation
( WTO ) unless it lifts a ban on US wheat.

Industry leaders have pressed President Bill Clinton to raise the matter at June's Beijing summit with President Jiang Zemin,when WTO membership will be a major item. They claimed the US Senate would never approve Beijing's entry unless the ban was lifted.

``The issue is not going to go away as long as China wants to be in the WTO,'' said Christopher Shaffer of US Wheat Associates _ a power in Washington.

While on Wed Mar 25, 1998, the FT had a BIG article "The European Union plans to urge Zhu Rongji, to dispel growing doubts about Beijings attitude to joing the WTO, by stating that his government is firmly committed to membership. The DEMAND, to be made at next week's EU-China summit in London, is prompted by concern in Brussels and Washington that Beijing's previous enthusiasm for early WTO entry is starting to wane."

(Sun Mar 29 1998 17:38 - ID#22956)
Hey Teddo!
Don't get any ideas with those cows. Humans can't make 'em pregnant, EH! There is no money there....EH! I think Studio has tried already during one of his peyote-flashback-stupors, EH! He owns all those cattle ya' know. Perhaps you can ask your Newfie to step up his biz and then having the inside dope we can all short cattle next year at the precise time. CHA-CHING! ( $ ) ! Sawgrass


go plat!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 17:38 - ID#431263)
Herr JIN--Hope all is well with you and yours in IMF-land! Let us know what's goin' on down there economically, politically, socially and militarily from time to time will ya?

Also, JIN, let me know if Indonesia ever begins to lay plans for annexing Papua New Guinea or Aussieland! : )

(Sun Mar 29 1998 17:44 - ID#31868)
STUDIO_R -Gulp, Gulp, ahhhhhhhh
Gulp, three in a row from Cuervo Central to ya. Glad to hear you had a fine time on the trip!

I think I have decided that Cuervo Central has to be moved into the Keys after all. Much thought has left me with no choice but to start planning and getting ready to pull the anchor and head south.

Ya know what, life aint a bitch unless you try real hard, down there its against the law to be miserable! Gulp, Happy Sunday to ya.

Oh yeah, ingestion is not a religion, its a way of life.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 17:58 - ID#431263)
What we really need to help build a gold equity bull market is a GOLD EQUITY INDEX FUND like Vanguard's for the S&P! We could put a market-weighted index of ALL GOLD STOCKS EVERYWHERE into it and then anyone who wanted to invest in gold mining stocks would simply buy the index thereby causing ALL GOLD MINING SHARES EVERYWHERE to rise equally, in keeping with their relative market caps! Then we wouldn't have to argue about which stocks would do better and which stocks were dogs. They'd all go up! Just like DOW dogs! We could even have a dogs of the GOLDEX which might even out-perform their better capitalized cousins over time! Heck, why not lobby all gold mining companies everywhere to consolidate their operations into one huge global cartel ( uh, corporation ) worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Then we could control the price of gold like OPEC once did the price of oil! Naw! That would take all the FUN out of it! Anyway, we already have a gold index fund of sorts--BGEIX ( Benham Gold Equity Index Fund ) now a member of the Ameriocan Century Family. Yeh, I own a few shares, so what? : )

(Sun Mar 29 1998 18:01 - ID#288369)
@T#1.....Warren (tin-newbie) wouldn't know......but Jimmy (tequilaville) would.....
The Keys are under the rainbow....Kee-lo West Here We Come!...nice new frame colonials? two-beds ( asking $500 K. ) two-blocks from "High"way One...Mile One...we'll operate our Havana operations from there. Hurry and smoke your last cigar...Fideleesta! Bay of Fat Pigs...oink! gulp! burp! Three blocks from margaritaville ( the real one ) and all the friends we'll ever need...Kitco convention site? huh? T#1 for Mayor! Hoorah!...The "real" Buffett for King! Glug!

Bully Beef
(Sun Mar 29 1998 18:01 - ID#259282)
I know I'm the most negative on gold here but I heard a rumour that....
GOLD WILL BE AT 330 BY NEXT FRIDAY!!!!!!!! tHIS COULD BE AN UNFOUNDED RUMOUR.However in my heart I know that it is true!!!!! This is bullish for gold.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 18:03 - ID#45173)
Delphi: More EURO -- Lester Thurow asks "run on the dollar?"


Published on 02/24/98. Article 10 of 24 found.
SOURCE: By Lester C. Thurow

For Americans the debate over Europe's common currency, the euro, is over. It doesn't make any difference whether we think it will be good or bad for Europe. It's going to happen in just 10 months. For those of us who live outside Europe, the only relevant question is: How is it going to make our lives different?

For Americans it means the dollar will no longer automatically be the world's reserve currency. Individuals, companies, and countries will have to decide how much of their reserves they will holf in the EURO...

Aw, crap. Ya hafta pay to read the rest of the article You get the idea...


(Sun Mar 29 1998 18:03 - ID#330175)
EB........and them hedious ideas that I will try an banish from my one---
operating brain ...cell...I gotta good feel bout GOLD tomorrow--you a BULL...?---Hey,'the Mailman' delivered,EH!!! ) ---god bless em!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 18:04 - ID#31868)
Ted - Hey, Yo, Ute breath!
Did you get that email to open.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 18:07 - ID#31868)
STUDIO_R Kitco Convention
In the Keys, I second that motion. And what, a house, tsk,tsk,tsk, sailboat mon' good grief! You bin inlan too looooong.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 18:10 - ID#342282)
SDRer your 15:52
I gotcha. Much obliged. It's kind of like Kilroy, he ain't only there- he may be here. Great work

(Sun Mar 29 1998 18:10 - ID#330175)
Studio.R.........................Go 'Crude'(xon).......& GOLD(do somethin damn-it!)
Bottom of the mug ta ya bro........'Crude'---up...down...side-FREAKin ways--I'm @ loss ( not the ) ....tryin ta the 'tea leaves' but situation only seems ta get more muddled...and sorta confused ( like up is down ) --just the bacics,huh...where was I ( huh ) matter---carry on my friend~~~~~

(Sun Mar 29 1998 18:13 - ID#330175)
no........................I'm somthin...I'm only into computers that I want ta click on somethin--and there 'it' is ( dig ) ---yer dealin with an tryin ta reform..

(Sun Mar 29 1998 18:20 - ID#45173)
Fred: Y2K from a hacker's perspective
Yes, I've been in the biz too since 1981. I've coded in PL/I, FORTRAN, Pascal, C, and even COBOL. I too have been trying to imagine how all that ratty C code that's running in the back office at Fidelity is going to behave when they try to calculate anything based on a date. Most computer languages have functions that convert a character string date into an integer to use in a calulation and then back again. If the subroutine you've written using the function parses only the last two digits, then you're going to get the wrong integer as a result. As you say, it ain't gonna stop, but it WILL be wrong.

So I ask myself, how the hell would anyone find this in a piece of code I'd written ten years ago when I worked at company X? Well, one way would be to search the source code for all instances of date/time conversion functions and then figure out how they work and fix them if they're not written for 20XX. This does not strike me as an impossible effort. It won't be fun, and it will take a long time, but it is possible. Am I missing something?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 18:26 - ID#266105)

Site with an article by Judy Shelton, author of Money
Meltdown; Restoring Order to the Global Currency System
and staunch gold standard bearer. Apparently a site
where on can post e-mail to Dr. Shelton and receive
replies, a number of to and froms follow the article.
Ms. Shelton has some interesting things to say of
Fed Chief Greenspan in one of the responses.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 18:28 - ID#255217)
RJ (Pt & Au)
Must beg to disagree with your statement that Pt will outperform Ag this year. Not that I dislike Pt; I wish I could afford a few pounds, but IMHO, Ag offers a better potential for appreciation AT CURRENT LEVELS than Pt.

I am aware of your credentials, but in my considered opinion ( IMCO? ) it will be far easier for Ag to double in price than for Pt to do likewise. Twice current Ag price would ( will ) be abt $13/oz. Twice current Pt price would be abt $800/oz. I think we'll see $13 silver long before we see $800 platinum, IMVHO.

Later in the game with both metals at much higher levels, I might not be so sure.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 18:35 - ID#35767)
Earth to Ted's remaining brain cell. What da gold ghonna due dis week eh?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 18:36 - ID#29082)
I posted the info about Durban Deep from a shareholders notice I received in the mail ( it came too late for me to vote on the special resolution ) . I own 1k shares and am holding, not adding at this time. The resolution says: Resolved as a special resolution that, in terms of Section blah blah as amended blah blah, the directors are hereby authorised to allot and issue up to 3 700 000 ordinary no par value shares at a cash price of 1 025 cents per share, being a price lower than the amount arrived at by dividing blah blah blah.

Listed as reasons for the new issue are: the collapse of the gold price in the second half of 1997, suspension of certain capital projects, restructuring of the company, to raise sufficient capital to complete the upgrading of metallurgical infrastructure and accelerate pre-stripping of overburden of the Rail Reserve at West Witwatersrand Gold Mines Limited.

If you are really interested in the text represented by "blah blah", I can type it up pretty quickly.

This sort of stock dilution is common in struggling companies ( see SSC for instance ) and is preferable to bankruptcy, or selling bonds to people who then control the company. I rate the company as a hold at this time.
Harmony ( HGMCY ) is doing better and I own some of that too.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 18:38 - ID#45173)
Argent & RJ
Thanks, RJ, for the thoughtful reply on Platinum. I'll think about your suggestions. Argent makes a good point, that other PMs may have a greater prospect for short term gain. This brings up another question that's been dogging me: why did Silver go up so much in the 1970's and are conditions similar for another gold run? Sure, Buffet says he's making a long term investment and he does tend to do that. But then if you're holding so many shares in Gillette that selling it all would equal 200% of a day's normal trading volume, you kinda have to invest long term. But just maybe he speculating...

(Sun Mar 29 1998 18:39 - ID#266105)

Couple samples of Ms. Shelton's writing and thinking
in responses to comments at aforementioned site--

2/2/98 Judy Shelton>
Allen: When you write: "The collapse in exchange rates will of course damage our
competing industries, but asking for an internationally-managed system of currency
for the world is ridiculous without reverting to gold"---all I can say is BINGO! I have
been propounding this theory so long I am at risk of being labeled a right-wing nut
by people who have no real understanding of the history or mechanisms of
international monetary relations. Gold is by far the best potential reserve asset for a
fixed-exchange rate system because it is universally recognized and historically
associated with value. It could provide a neutral solution to the problem of
international monetary disorder, as opposed to a politically-loaded one.

2/2/98 Judy Shelton
Dennis: I agree with you that I emphasized the penalty to businesses in countries
with stronger currencies rather than elaborating on what happens to citizens who
must contend with their own devalued currencies internally. I assure you, my
deepest sympathy is for the latter; they are the true victims of currency devaluation.
I am a professor of international finance at a graduate business school in Monterrey,
Mexico, so I have seen first-hand the financial fallout of money meltdown. It pains
me to witness dreams that have been devastated, and careers derailed, because
the monetary rug has been pulled out from under people who were working, saving,
and planning. It is utterly unfair. Indeed, it is immoral.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 18:56 - ID#266105)

2/2/98 Judy Shelton
Thank you for agreeing with me "that the business community has displayed an
alarming passivity toward fixing the system." It puzzles me that individuals seeking
to participate in the international marketplace are not more demanding when it
comes to the importance of a having a decent unit of account. Free markets require
accurate price signals to function at optimal levels---don't they? Why accept the
distortions and inaccurate signals regarding supply and demand, future investment
returns, and other pertinent business information all engendered in today's hybrid
"system" of pseudo floating rates? Who knows where genuine opportunity beckons
when the price signals transmitted through cheap currencies or rates of return
bumped up to compensate for exchange rate risk obscure real value? I believe in the
fundamental morality of democratic capitalism and open markets. Moreover, I am no
"one-worlder." So for reasons of practicality and logic, I would urge the business
community to demand a meaningful unit of account and a reliable store of value from
its money. Since we do live in a global economy---at least we all insist as
much---isn't it only reasonable that we be able to measure value across borders and
through time with a recognized global unit of account? I prefer to do it with fixed
exchange rates convertible into a common reserve asset---gold. Why the business
community remains so cowed by government when it comes to monetary issues, I
don't understand.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 18:58 - ID#266105)

2/4/98 Judy Shelton
AllenM: As far as Greenspan and his "golden" roots, please check out the 5/15/97
edition of to read my own viewpoint that he is indeed fulfilling
his long-term objectives consistent with his admiration for the classical gold
standard. It is just such a slow process! He feels that the political implications are
even more dramatic than the financial ones---that people would never again tolerate
deficit spending by governments ( we may be getting there ) and would wish to
guarantee gold convertibility against government abuse of power. Greenspan may be
one of the most vertically-integrated thinkers I have ever known, able to go from
principles of political philosophy down to the most trivial minutiae of business
inventory statistics. I just shudder to think of his replacement one day...

(Sun Mar 29 1998 19:04 - ID#28594)
SouthChina Business Post, Mon Mar 29 1998
IMF, Jakarta talks hit snag over corporate debt Indonesia made progress during the weekend in discussions with the International Monetary Fund on a package to aid its economy.

Suharto has everyone against him, but he still keeps winning. The key is whether he sticks to the new deal. And now the IMF has backed down twice, who is to say they won't do it again?"

(Sun Mar 29 1998 19:18 - ID#340302)
...and I love gold and silver...I really do!

And if you don't love me, well...



(Sun Mar 29 1998 19:23 - ID#29082)
IDT and others interested in DROOY

This is the news release on what I posted earlier.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 19:34 - ID#28594)
Gold: Spanish trove that ancient Romans
By Kenneth Gooding, Mining Correspondent

Gold is being produced in Spain again for the first time in nearly 2,000 years. The El Valle mine in the north-western region of Asturias, whose mines provided the Roman Empire with much of its wealth, has started up and should produce 100,000 troy ounces of gold a year.

Somebody obviously forgot to tell them that "Gold is dead" {:- ) )

(Sun Mar 29 1998 19:35 - ID#341189)
Alisa Resenbaum (Ayn Rand) comes home to St. Petersburg- works in Russian

(Sun Mar 29 1998 19:38 - ID#341189)
That's Rosenbaum

(Sun Mar 29 1998 19:40 - ID#217338)
Do any of you have a site for graphs of COMEX warehouse Platinum stockpiles?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 19:42 - ID#431263)


(Sun Mar 29 1998 19:46 - ID#317193)
Shorts made a run late friday afternoon. I expect another run monday-just a gut guess. Maybe into tuesday morn. Interesting week methinks. Do not beleive I will buy into whatever is said or seen until thursday. Stops set for prices reflecting gold @ US$292.00. Will buy into it until stops hit. What mind games we ( I ) play. Tom

(Sun Mar 29 1998 19:46 - ID#340302)
...hopefully, there are others on this forum who might help create such a financial institution.

It's called "fighting fire with fire."


(Sun Mar 29 1998 19:47 - ID#255217)
Silver prices in the 70's & 80's vs now
Silver in the 70's was just emerging from a long sleep in which the price was stagnant around the $1.00 level ( give or take ) for many , many years.
As the price approached $1.29/oz. due to supply/demand factors there began to appear articles in print discussing the implications of increasing silver prices on our nation's silver coinage. Among other things, at $1.29/oz. the bullion value of a silver dollar ( 0.7734 oz. ) would be equal to $1.00. Above that price the bullion value would exceed the face value, and Gresham's Law would begin to assert itself, resulting in the disappearance of silver dollars from circulation. The same phenomenon would occur with halves, quarters and dimes at $1.38/oz.

As the price continued to rise ( slowly ) silver coins began to be hoarded and disappeared from circulation, resulting, ultimately, in our wonderful money substitute we now call clad coinage. Also along about this time ( I don't remember the exact year ) , a guy by the name of Jerome Smith wrote a booklet entitled "Silver Profits in The Seventies", extolling the virtues of investing in silver over the coming years.

Jerry Smith's writings along with others along the same lines combined with the Carter Administration years of government spending and the tremendous debt burden incurred by the Vietnam War resulted in an increase in silver prices that culminated in the Hunt Brothers fiasco in the early 80's.

The point of all this is that the price of silver in the 70's and 80's was a result of many factors that are not operable today. The situation has changed. How much is a matter of personal opinion. I believe we are in a different ball game now and that the price of silver we are currently seeing ( and that we will see ) is much more realistic and is reflective of true supply/demand relationships in the marketplace than in the hectic years immediately before and just after 1980. There will always be speculators and opportunists as there are in any market. And there will be excesses and blowoffs, but my money is still on silver, both figuratively and literally.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 19:49 - ID#32078)
Gold funds last week
Last week, there were over 17 gold funds which advanced more than 10%, led by Rydex Precious Metals ( RYPMX ) at 16%. Here's to next week.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 19:49 - ID#284255)
Sell your home, stockpile your cash and buy gold.
Bank boss fears global crash in 2000
Bank accounts, mortgages and pension funds could be wiped out by the millennium bug
Prepare now for the year 2000
Blair warns of economic chaos unless millennium bug is cured

(Sun Mar 29 1998 19:52 - ID#317193)
Sorry, forgot ( courtesy GOD and F* ) . Tom

(Sun Mar 29 1998 19:53 - ID#28594)
Tolerant1--Get out the wax doll again--it looks like the IMF is winning the PR war
Asian financial crisis: Role of surveillance and transparency underlined
MONDAY MARCH 30 1998 By Robert Chote, Economics Editor

"Forewarned is forearmed", the International Monetary Fund argues in its
internal post-mortem on the run-up to the Asian financial crisis.
The global economic watchdog concludes that it needs to do more to predict potential crises and to persuade national authorities to take corrective measures.

"Of course, some crises will continue to occur, and there should be no
implication that by simply strengthening surveillance procedures the Fund
could prevent all future crises," the report argues. "And Fund surveillance risks being ineffective unless members are willing to give full consideration to the views expressed by the international community through the Fund."

(Sun Mar 29 1998 19:59 - ID#30116)
Just wondering aloud, what other variations will we see of 'millenium madness'? It happened as the year 1000 approached, and to a smaller degree, as each century turned over. The human mind is an amazing thing. What will it think of next? Inquiring minds want to know! :- ) )

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:00 - ID#28594)
MIGA likes Mining
March '98
MIGA is organizing the Global Mining Investment Opportunities Symposium
which will be held in Montreal on May 4-6, 1998. This event is being held in conjunction with the Centennial Celebration of the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum ( CIM ) . Senior public and private sector officials from over 60 countries have been invited to participate in the MIGA symposium. Over 8,000 mining industry representatives are expected to attend the CIM/CMMI/MIGA conference sessions and exhibition.

COMMENT: Political risk in SA? Not with MIGA at the conference table...

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:01 - ID#340302)
@TOLERANT...No, I am not asking you to become an "equity clown"...
...I am simply saying that, during an equity mania such as we are experiencing, your negatives on certain golds or silvers are always going to be used against you. How? Because you infuriate other PM investors whose stocks you are denouncing...and they then look for anything negative they can find about your investments such that "they can get even." These negatives are then picked up by Wall Street and used against ALL PM investors.

You may take the attitude of, "Hey, I don't give a damn...I just buy the physical! I don't care about gold or silver stocks!" The problem is that there is a division even within the physical PM world. One group says golden eagles are great...another says they're horrible, subject to government one must only buy St. Gaudens or Liberty golds ( pre-1933 coins ) . So, the Eagle purchasers get pissed off and tell everyone, "Hey, those numismatic gold coins are're paying mostly for numismatic value and during a gold panic, who gives a damn about numismatic value?" NET EFFECT: you turn off all potential buyers of gold physical because they cannot trust who is right or wrong in the entire debate.

So, Mr. Tolerant, I am simply saying that you should live up to your should be tolerant and the way you do that is you revert to what your mother once most likely taught you, "IF YOU DON'T HAVE ANYTHING NICE TO SAY, THEN DON'T SAY ANYTHING AT ALL."

The first legs of a gold/silver bull are always shaky. We must help get the gold/silver bull on its legs so that it can mature into a full adult.
If you ever want to witness a full blown PM bull analogous to the equities bull we are now witnessing, then IMHO you must at least initially resort to the same methodology practised by "the enemy." Your negative thoughts about PM's are your own worst enemy.

You follow?


(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:02 - ID#32078)
SPEED.. I also received a notice of the DROOY action in the afternoon mail for a meeting in SA that morning, too late to do anything. I'm not sure what I would have done anyway. The price of DROOY for the new shares was that on Feb 18, at which the ADR was trading at 2.375. Therefore, since someone can get new shares at that price ( or near ) , why would the stock rally as others have done. I feel like I was definitely out of the loop since the decision was made a month ago.

The Hatt
(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:05 - ID#294232)
Those Idiotic Aussies Sell Gold From The Opening As Usual!
They are on the same level as the Mutual Fund Sheep who are being lead to slaughter as we speak. Sooner or later Australia and Canada are going to pay the price for selling or excuse me, giving away their Gold! I am a Canuck and if the EU is backed by Gold I will be putting my profits from gold into EU backed Bonds!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:05 - ID#317193)
SDRer IMF+S.E.Asia=Black Hole
IMF may win the PR battle but the war was lost in '97. There ain't that much cash to cover all the loses of the financial institutions involved. We'll see this in the next month or two. Derivatves!! Tom

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:07 - ID#31868)
farfel - so essentially what you are saying is
____ __ __ __ _____, __ ______ ____ ______ __ ___ ____ __ ___ _____ __ _

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:10 - ID#32078)
FARFEL.. As much as I recognize the importance of optimistic attitudes toward gold, etc, I don't really think that the comments on KITCO have the slightest effect upon the market. You give us too much credit.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:15 - ID#28594)
TYoung--The amazing thing is --they didn't HAVE the money they "lent"
in the first "go-round"...and that fact doesn't seem to
matter! It is the financial fairy tale of the late 20th century...
Derivatives, yes--one would rationally conclude that they are the
steel trap. We'll see, yes?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:16 - ID#400214)
Re:EJ (Fred: Y2K from a hacker's perspective)
No you're not missing anything. Problem is lack of warm bodies to do the job in time. Programs to scan for this and then fix what they find is what would work in time. So a lot of money is being spent trying to do this right now. Lots of Catch-22s. Date field format and x y coordinates are the same in some systems.

With so many different programers over the years using all kind of different "programming styles" it means that you have to have some really smart computer programs to not make things worse.

Massive problem is in hardware -- embeded controlers. In an office a large amount of the work can be done by hand till the software is fixed. But with the controlers there are not enought people to fill in for them. It could get very dark for a long time.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:20 - ID#317193)
Unlike larryn, i beleive you, by yourself, have positively impacted the market notwithstanding the fact that you are from an Ivy league school and, apparently, have an Econ degree.IDCIBM Tom

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:21 - ID#340302) a specific ad hoc sense, I agree...
...the Kitco forum probably does NOT move the market based on daily comments made here ( although I have learned some vital timely info occasionally with respect to certain stocks I am evaluating ) .

However, in a cumulative sense, I feel certain that Kitco has an effect on the markets. If the forum supplies continuously negative energy, then there are enough interlopers and visitors to this forum where various tidbits of such info will be picked up and disseminated broadly. Many of these visitors and interlopers ( Karlito is a most notable example ) are probably all too happy to spread negative "insider" info about PM's to equities bulls ( and PM shorts ) back on Wall Street.



(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:22 - ID#330175)
WW..........................and yer talkin 'funny' again---ummmmmmmmmmmmmm
What's gold gonna do this week---hang on a sec---heads=up & tails=down......and it''s heads!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:22 - ID#288369)
@F* T#1 needing to change IYO.....
I choose to consider T#1 as a teacher, obviously wise, for his offerings seem to trace back to a wealth of experience. Free wisdom...what a wonderful gift.....thoughts seined by a finely-woven mind. Listen for subtle overtones as well as the dominant tones. studio

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:22 - ID#31868)
SDR_er - I have said it before and I will say it again - GET CAMDESUSS!
Camdesuss is a dogs bottom sniffing, no good, meely mouthed, dishonest dirtbag, that lives off the backs and sweat of honest people anywhere in the globe. He is the foul diseased representative of what a human being evolves into when it lies, cheats and tells everyone else to tough out economic circumstances while he eats caviar and imbibes drinks which are never paid for out of his pocket, but the very pockets of the people he is informing that they need to tighten their belts and act fiscally responsible.

He is that form of maggot that the world does not need, he eats only of the healthy flesh and makes it diseased so that he may exist.

Camdesuss = maggot

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:23 - ID#393224)
Smiling in Oz
Gold shares up strongly here this a.m.. Have a look at Bill Buckler's Oz gold share chart to see why we are smiling in Oz. Gold index now just short of 1200.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:24 - ID#330175)
Brother Studio.R................and like minds(?)...think alike---
once again we doubled posTED~~~~~

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:25 - ID#227290)
SDR & El Valle
There was some talk on here last night about Lyndex Explorations ( LYDX ) but I got home after the posters had gone to bed.
Well, this El Valle deposit on Rio Narcea, sits next door to LYDX's Salave property. That is important for LYDX because when you look at the assay results from the drill programs of each company, you'll see that although the grades were quite similar, the widths on Salave were several times that of El Valle.

If El Valle returned 35 feet of .18, Salave returned 250 feet of .18.

El Valle now holds an estimated 800,000 ounces. Salave holds an estimated 3.3 million.

While it's true that LYDX has 154 million shares outstanding, it certainly wasn't always that year. As '97 began, there were 7.4 million out. The shares were C$3.50. They ran to C$18.50 last June and management split the shares 20-for-1 in July. The current price of C$.26 is equivalent to a pre-split price of C$5.20.
A financing was done at C$12.00 and a major mining company exec bought 12,000 shares at C$18.00 last year.
My opinion is that a run to $350 in gold will propel LYDX to C$1.00 or better.
If anyone's interested, there you have it.

The Preacher

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:26 - ID#330175)
G'Day mate~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*go gold*

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:29 - ID#431263)
Guten Tag, Mate! How's my precious LIHIR doin' this fine day in the land of Oz? ADR closed here in the US at 26 3/4 UP 2 1/8 or 8.63% on Friday. Remember each ADR is the equivalent of 20 Aussie shares. Do you accept Vronsky's opinion that LIHIR is in imminent danger of an Indonesian takeover? Keep me informed on its progress will ya matie? DANKE SCHOEN! And put one on the barbie for Cheesehead!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:29 - ID#340302)
@TOLERANT...No, I am not saying that you should say, "NOTHING."
...I simply am saying that the negative attacks are in essence shooting yourself in the foot. There are far too many PM antagonists out there and you simply supply them the ammunition to use against you.

There is a way to warn other goldbugs about "problems" with producers or metals in a way which does not negate an entire PM sector. For example, there are ways to point out the positives about N.A. golds without at the same time destroying the validity of S.A. golds. I am not saying "No criticism whatsoever...rather I am saying that the criticism should be voiced euphemistically in a manner that does not harm a specific PM sector, e.g., if you believe in N.A. golds, you tell your buddy, "Have ever taken a look at XYX stock, it has ZZZ benefits and is really worth the investment." Instead of..."You should only invest in N.A. gold stocks because S.A. gold stocks suck, there is political instablitiy in S.A., high taxes, you're gonna get screwed, etc. etc."

You follow?


(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:29 - ID#317193)
Come now what do you really think of Camdesuss. Unique, not crazy, that's my vote. Sorry. Tom

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:29 - ID#330175)
April Gold
down a dime @ 3-0-3

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:34 - ID#411112)
Unless someone can come up with Dummies Y2k,easy for Joe 6pak(no the kitco 6pak)to understand
it's a hard sell,there is enough talent here to do it........this is your mission if you accept......mankind will be truely gratefull

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:35 - ID#45173)
Argent: Thx for the background on silver
You know your history well. I agree that the value of silver reflects supply and demand. I'm not so sure that's true of silver coins, tho. The following relates to your comments about our clad coins. I carry around a bullion quality US silver dollar as a good luck piece. Occasionally someone will see me tossing it or something and ask me about it. I hand it to them and ask then how much they think it's worth. They consistently guess between US$15 and US$20. In fact it's worth about US$6.50. The higher price estimates come from those born after silver coins went out of circulation--maybe they've never seen one before. The coins are old, they're heavy, they look good. No doubt there's an opportunity for someone who knows how to market U.S. silver coins effectively to a target market to capitalize on this delta between perceived value and actual price. And I bet any real or perceived loss in the value of the greenback ( see the piece below on the EURO causing a run in the dollar ) will only increase the perceived value of silver coinage.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:37 - ID#233199)
Durban Deep Warrants

Can anyone here tell me anything definitive about DD warrants?

Is there anyway to purchase them ( should they really exit ) from N. America?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:41 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother John,

Technique of AU testing
included 3 SSS X 2 TPP
Result: high = 308 for this week.

SSS=Straight Stolich Shot
TPP=Tony Packo's Pickle

Technique of PL testing
included 2 M X 1 PR
Result: insufficient data, but
appears to go slightly under 400,
than recovers to 410. No reliable reading.

M=Merlot ( in glass )
PR=Prime Rib ( medium, with baked potato )

Let's watch, my brother.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:41 - ID#31868)
farfel, farfel. farfel, I will give you this, you are relentless,
I still see things my way, not to negate the validity of your ongoing commentary. However, I shall try to do a better job of living up to my tolerant name, dont ask for anymore than that, cause the shelves are empty in the pantry of my mind on this topic.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:41 - ID#210235)
@Farfel the *
All along I thought you were joking with this IDCIBM. Fun and funny it was, briefly. Now it does appear you are serious, and wish to set the tone of this group.

If we carried on this way, I fear, the very fish who might come into our waters out of curiousity, would be repulsed and swim away. Only market professionals and independent contrarians are likely to be seriously considering metals as investments at this juncture. They aren't going to be sucked in by a bunch of idiots chanting.

On the other hand, since if the gold bear is, in fact, at an end, we will be entering a basing period. Perhaps an extended one. The savvy will quietly accumulate. It is these people who have a chance of catching on to the value of these investments. These people will be captivated not by chanting, but by spirited discussions of value.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:43 - ID#31868)
folks. I gots to watch the ladies play some
hoops, been waiting all day for this, be back in a little.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:43 - ID#431263)
Japan losing early gains and most Asian tigers red and turning negativo! Could be ugly in Europe and US if Nikkei can't rally tonight ahead of BIG BANG! Jim Cramer lookin' for a 2-5% DOW pullback before going higher--too many bulls ( 49% ) . Need more short sellers and goldbugs to get bearish before it can climb the wall of worry higher. NERVOUS BULLS ON EQUITIES AND NERVOUS BEARS ON PM'S=DOW CORRECTION AND PM RALLY!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:48 - ID#260433)
Over time I have come to value your opinions over all others. What do you figure the odds are of gold reaching $350.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:54 - ID#411259)
..... Let's look at the numbers .....


I agree that silver has great potential, but I would hesitate to agree with the numbers you put forth. Count the number of times silver has been over even $8 ( about 30% higher than present prices ) , and the length of time it remained that high. Now count the number of times that platinum has risen over $520 ( again, about 30% ) and stayed there.

At 6.35, silver is OVER its average high of the last dozen years, while platinum is $90 BELOW its average high. Further, average yearly price moves for platinum are uniformly higher than silver. These charts have a somewhat different focus, as most of my silver trades are very short term. Platinum trades tend to be held longer, so I did not include average monthly moves.

Please, lets not bring 1979 - 1980 into the picture as that was an aberration and unlikely to happen again, besides, you don't trade the market looking for the jackpot, you trade the range - wherever the range may be.

That platinum is so volatile and has spent so much time above $500 is a surprise to many. Platinum is the quiet metal. No headlines were made when platinum spiked $120 last June, but let gold rise 20 bucks and the WSJ will put it on the front page. People tend not to trade platinum, because they don't know enough about it. Platinum is a more purely supply/demand driven metal, and far less susceptible to daily manipulations - quite apart from gold and silver, which only a true innocent would argue are not massively manipulated.

It looks as though the numbers support platinum over silver, although I trade both quite heavily, silver, at these levels has a ton of down to it, while platinum has substantially less downside.

I'm buying platinum.


(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:54 - ID#35767)
Solution Just make it 1900 again reprint the calendars and stop screwin' with da computers.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:54 - ID#288369)
@God of Fire (Teddo...where would we be without a Zippo? Huh?)
Yours was a fine chant...I do believe gold is becoming a considered investment option again, we're fortunately a wee bit early. Why be on time when you can be early?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:55 - ID#330175)
go La.Tech~~~~~ditto gold

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:57 - ID#431263)
Tennessee whoopin their A__! 32-13!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:57 - ID#340302)
@PROMETHEUS...of course, there is an element of whimsy... the IDCIBM chant.

Yet, there are also seeds of truth within such a chauvinistic strategy.
Because that is how the Great Wall Street Bull was effected.

In fact, Promey, do you remember the day of the October '97 dive? After the market turned around ( following the massive IBM repurchase announcement ) , there were reports that most of the floor traders chanted "GO, GO, GO, GO..." as the bull resumed its upward path.

Remember, the public is not simply looking for an investment to maximize wealth. They are also looking for a communal ideology they can hand their hats on. The crowd loves corny things ( like "THE WAVE" at a football game ) . PM exponents must cater to the cravings of the crowd if they want the crowd to join their camp.

If PM metals investors expect Wall Street equities investors to be won over by spririted, cynical, negativity on this forum...PM investors that can't seem to form a consensus on any single investment...then I think they are kidding themselves.

Either adopt the strategies and tactics of the bull crowd...or lose!


(Sun Mar 29 1998 20:59 - ID#225273)
Bill2j & $350 gold
Thank you for the compliment, Bill2j.
I think the chance to see $350 gold this year is quite good. The market seems to me to be figuring out that it has made a big mistake and that gold should never have been valued at $280.
The positive gold action in the face of a large CB gold sale, the breaking of major MAs by some of the stocks, the ongoing bull markets in silver, plat, and pall, the larger-than-expected gold backing of the Euro, the in-your-face intransigence of the Japanese and the Indonesians to the IMF, and other factors, lead me to believe we are at the beginning of something, not the end of something.
And $350 is an attainable goal from this level.

Go gold!

The Preacher

(Sun Mar 29 1998 21:00 - ID#411259)
..... No pile to go to .....

Plaintalker -

Platinum is traded on NYMEX.

There are no stockpiles.

End of report.


(Sun Mar 29 1998 21:00 - ID#35767)
I thought you was goin' down Maine, why is ya still up in God's country. I am glad ya got yer mail. Any luck at the Sydney casino lately?!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 21:04 - ID#411112)
RJ the question begs......if brokers(guys on the floor not CTA's)trade the spread,not the facts,how

can logic play a role

(Sun Mar 29 1998 21:05 - ID#210235)
@RJ (off-topic but short)
Thanks for the Titanic recommendation. Won't get into a critique of it, but overall glad I went and the kiddos really enjoyed it.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 21:11 - ID#393224)
G'day Ted/Golden Cheesehead
Ted--I like the direction this stuff is heading. Hope you and yours doing as well.

G.Cheesehead. Your precious Lihir up 2 1/2% this am. No way the Indonesians are going to take Lihir/Papua New Guinea. That would be tantamount to invading Oz. I spent 9 years in PNG. Australia has a very close affinity with the land and it's people. Much more likely the Indonesians would squeeze Freeport M. and other gold miners in its own country. They then run the risk of no further foreign investment. They ain't that dumb.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 21:14 - ID#259400)
Having heard words of wisdom from what I consider to be the very fount of
wisdom I shall sleep well indeed. Farfel * the unpronouncable, I love your posts.
Crazy Bill

(Sun Mar 29 1998 21:14 - ID#210235)
Thanks. Yes, we are probably early to the party. May be boring waiting around for the fun to begin. Such is the lot of the contrarian.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 21:21 - ID#431263)
Hope Vronsky's listening to your reassuring words of wisdom! Somehow he's got it in his head that Suharto wants ALL the Pacific islands for Indonesia, including LIHIR! Hopefully, the FACTS you just presented will change his mind, although I doubt it. He's got a huge emotional investment in DROOY and RSA GOLD in general. Poor guy! Missin' out on one of the premier gold mining operations anywhere on earth! IMHO

(Sun Mar 29 1998 21:28 - ID#30116)
This similar to the HUI index. It is not weighted like the HUI is. It has FCX/A in place of FCX/C stock, other than those two differences it is very similar. One thing this chart does show is the sum of the stock volume traded in the index.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 21:29 - ID#267276)
Does anyone have a opinion on Anglo American--pro or con. Thanks

(Sun Mar 29 1998 21:30 - ID#432148)
Swiss gold sale info

Forgive me if already posted.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 21:30 - ID#411112)
Y2K Front page in UK

(Sun Mar 29 1998 21:33 - ID#356379)
Tennessee Lady Vols (Orange subject, not gold)

Off topic. But... Hey, it's for the national championship!

From here in Knoxville, the first half was a joy to watch.

Ted, just think of how much the Lady Techsters are learning!

Back to the still, and the game...

(Sun Mar 29 1998 21:36 - ID#339320)
@ Missing the point

It seems to me that the trees are not being seen, for the

The January LBMA volume announcement over a year ago
gave that incredible bombshell, which has lead to the
explanation, as to the how/why of gold market activity of
the last 25 years. We have seen how gold and oil are
unseparably tied together, their relationship with the U.S.
dollar, and how the fiat markets have come to be, thanks to
this triad.

A few common sense conclusions have been;
1. Since the 1971 Beirut accord, oil has been directly tied
to gold.
2. Gold and oil are INCREDIBLY undervalued, and only
by having BOTH in this state, have the fiat monetary
systems been able to survive up to now. If the possible
corollary scenarios are thought out, there is shown as an
absolute. High oil would crash world economies, and high
gold prices in a fiat ambience would create high oil.
3. Gold is, and has been, very cleverly manipulated, thru
the advent of leasing and forward sales.
4. COMEX, at its puny volume as compared to the LBMA,
continues to be the worlds puppet price setter for gold
prices. This is almost unbelievable, when you consider the
difference of the two markets volumes. LBMA
intentionally avoids influencing COMEX.
5. The incredible volume of LBMA shows, irrefutably, that
gold contracts are being used as money in commerce. There is no
logical relation between LBMA volume, and world gold
purchases.....LBMA just simply moves FAR TOO MUCH.
This can only be achieved by selling gold
paper......why.......because it is pay for
oil. Who else would get involved under these terms?
6. COMEX is now a fractional reserve bank. In physical
delivery, it can only cover but a very small percentage of
those holding the paper for supposed physical on deposit
in this warehouse. No one would have tolerated this 75
years ago.
7. The worlds central banks CANNOT sell enough gold,
if they HAD to, to fulfill current demand. Look at yearly
LBMA volume. And COMEX sets the world price...what a laugh.
And to think its is hardcores ( goldbugs by definition ) who want
tangibility who buyinto gold....thru COMEX. I hereby rename this
organization, more appropriately, Comex Savings and
Loan Bank......why not....there is no real difference in the end, except that the bank can give you their puny FDIC guarantee, whereas COMEX

I guess what Im driving at is:
WHY, would those buying thru the LBMA, accept paper,
when they MUST know there is but a very small
percentage of physical that can supply yearly demand??
This answer is obvious, in that THEY KNOW the world
economies have one foot in the grave, and the other on a
banana peel. Even so, this needs to be precisely analyzed,
hopefully by the collective ( hate that word ) mind here on

Even more specifically,
-How is it that $300 gold can presently exist, with the
givens mentioned above?
-How can it have existed at this price for so long?
-What are the present eco-mechanics being used at this light that those in the doing business thru the
LBMA know that they are buying and selling into a false

The search for the answer to these questions, should be our
present mission. These answers will most definitely show
the primary forces that shapes the worlds near
future......and our beloved gold market.


(Sun Mar 29 1998 21:40 - ID#330175)
5/6 is departure date----4/30 is the end of cyber-life ( ? ) ~~~not muck luck @ casino...

(Sun Mar 29 1998 21:43 - ID#210235)
Sorry, I've been very busy this last month, and have ( apparently ) missed much of what's been going on here at Kitco.

Where do you get the LBMA numbers? I thought they were not public knowledge. That might be a good starting point.


(Sun Mar 29 1998 21:43 - ID#330175)
Ridgerunner & Lady Techsters
It's an ole fashioned whoppin......

(Sun Mar 29 1998 22:01 - ID#228128)
Speed: Thanks for the info. Nobody likes to see a stock dilution.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 22:05 - ID#330175)
Old Man said Cornell not Yale

(Sun Mar 29 1998 22:08 - ID#339320)

Yes, Ive been away too. I have only just peeked in once or
twice per week...too much work, a family, and two
households on different continents.
Its just that whenever I logged onto KITCO, most of the
dialog has been too far away from Gold Market Analysis.
That coupled with the present inexplicable market behavior
( as I see it ) , it seems time to remeber WHY we are here.
The present market even has ANOTHER stumped, for the

LBMA: They have let out figures several times now, and
have been reposted on KITCO......but not on a consistent
basis. This would obviously indicate that there is some
dissention in the ranks of the LBMA. There are a few here
who have recorded every pertinent detail to the LBMA, and
maybe they could repost them again.

Time to cruise the celestial highways.
Golden dreams to all.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 22:10 - ID#330175)
@ The End

(Sun Mar 29 1998 22:15 - ID#411259)

Robnoel -

Pick any time that gold and platinum were very close in price - say. under $20. Buy platinum, sell gold Wait. You will make money.

Promethius -

Glad you liked the flick. I have been meaning to add my compliments to some of your recent posts. You are a very human and humane voice for this forum. These pages are the better for it.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 22:18 - ID#288369)
@Teddo....You, me and Bobby
Make Three Grate Minds...G'Nite...

(Sun Mar 29 1998 22:19 - ID#431263)
Avid's Heads-Up column has some pretty encouraging things to say about gold if'n it can successfully penetrate 310. Lookin' for 330-340! Negative on stocks and bonds however. At least short term projecting DOW down 155 pts. from here to support.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 22:20 - ID#370218)
Nikkei at 16,853
Apparently, Japan can't even move the market to the required 18,000 with the Postal Savings money. Some type of bold new effort is required to head off a full-fledged depres..... Sorry, can't use that word. Coming to a town or city near you soon-change. Tom

(Sun Mar 29 1998 22:24 - ID#431263)
Auger's XAU page lookin' for xau to make it up to 90-93, possible 110, before correcting back!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 22:32 - ID#31868)
Hats off
to the Lady Vols - 3 in a row!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 22:37 - ID#411149)
round ball
Congratulations to the Tennessee Lady Vols -NATIONAL CHAMPS

Tally Ho

Bully Beef
(Sun Mar 29 1998 22:41 - ID#260119)
I don't think logic ever drove a market ...nor did it win an election.
Pos-it-ive vib-ra-tions Day-o. Logic got man to the didn't send him there.LOGIC NEVER GOT A MAN TO THE ALTAR...his ( oh well ) ...GO GOLD POSITIVELY!!!!!

(Sun Mar 29 1998 22:41 - ID#22956)
Ricardo James
Good spreadsheet. Thanks. It is now on the wall. Plat has room to run. I will add to my position, just waiting for a minor correction.....Sydney has been very harsh during the last few sessions. W/W. I will add to October, it looks good to me. Time is on my side.....Yes it is! ( sang in my best MJ voice ) . I am knee-deep the money, some is 'capped' ( paid for/free/call it what you will ) some is completely naked and loving the freedom. How are those gold shorts?? Did you close them Friday or just biding time.....Tick-Tock.....lime-boy ran up the clock. Someone was looking up your skirt............ohmy! the X-files


(Sun Mar 29 1998 22:50 - ID#411259)
..... Grinder Feller .....

Sold at 302. Next week will tell................

Away - Tofindsomebodywhowillgrinda9baselensformyballaramas


(Sun Mar 29 1998 22:52 - ID#373403)
Observations and Prognostications
Asian crisis
Credit contraction
Asians sell off foreign debt
Inflate M3
Equities Inflate
M3 spills over into economy
Brisk business
Inflation in business costs
Lower corporate profitability
Higher interest rates
Credit defaults
Credit squeeze
Money flees equities into treasuries
Interest falls
Deflation looms
M3 growth continues
Higher interest
Money flees treasuries into hard assets
Real estate booms
M3 growth continues
Higher interest
Money flees real estate into other hard assets without debt
Credit contraction after real estate bubble bursts
M3 contracts

(Sun Mar 29 1998 22:54 - ID#22956)
Try a 7 base....mail me. I can do ANYTHING. do the hard stuff


(Sun Mar 29 1998 22:58 - ID#255217)
RJ (Numbers...)
You make a cogent argument based on past performance of Pt vs Ag. And I would certainly agree on the manipulation aspect. If past performance were the only criterion for anticipation of future price action, I would have to agree with you in general. And I do not accept the Hunt runup in price as "normal" and therefore discard that out of hand.

My fundamental belief is that silver has a much wider range of industrial usage than platinum and that alone may account for much greater demand in the future, leading to a higher price structure. I guess only time will tell if supply/demand pressure on silver will offset platinum's much greater rarity advantage.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 23:01 - ID#411259)
..... Thanky .....

Helpful guy -

7s go !POP! out the frame and the UV bores into my corneas. Must have 9 base, for that wrap around, aerodynamic look. Me go zoom way fast on foot wheels.

Away tolookwindswept

Re: Back to the hard stuff. Grindin' or Drinkin'?

(Sun Mar 29 1998 23:08 - ID#252391)
Silver stocks at new lows
Don't notice much comment on the fact that silver stocks at the comex hit new lows last week with an 1 million oz outflow on Friday. At some point this should become a focus. My only thought that this may not really be important is the level of imports of silver to London in the first two months of '98 which I read to be 300 muillion oz. Anybody have anything on this?

It curious to me that everybody completely dismissed silver ever going to $50 again, how about $25, how about $15, how about DOW 8900 afew years ago when it was 3000. Who would have believed. Unusual circumstances would have to prevail, I admit. How about comex stocks at 10 million oz, the dollar weakening, the DOW falling and money flowing into precious metal investments the way they have gone into internest stocks these last few months.

No high is too high if fundlementals, moeny flows and mania converge.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 23:18 - ID#384350)
@jims Silver
I was talking to Australia a few weeks back. The guy told me that they had taken in HUGE amounts of Silver granules from Singapore, had melted them down into bars, and had shipped them off to London, most likely for Buffett's taking delivery of his Silver in London.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 23:26 - ID#255217)
jims - Big nos. in silver prices
Was about to pull the plug, but couldn't resist a comment. I DO pay attention to COMEX stock nos. as I am sure many others do also. And I DO think we could see big nos. in silver prices. $50, maybe. $35 I think. $25 almost for sure. $10 this year ( I hope ) . Yeah, it can happen! But there's many a slip twixt the cup and the lip. And NOBODY knows for sure except God and he ain't tellin.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 23:28 - ID#411259)
..... Love this supply/demand stuff .....

Argent -

I agree that silver has big potential in the current market. Could be that the fundamentals are finally taking hold. A decade of supply deficits have created a possible silver shortage over the next couple years. Actually I don't worry too much about down silver. I think it might stay around $6 for a couple years. A spike to $10 and higher is not an irresponsible expectation. There is no way to quantify the amount of silver that would come into the market from current hoarders, and at what point they will sell. There is muchu silver worldwide to be had, but at what price?

As for industrial base, one out of five products you come in contact with everyday has platinum in its history: fiber optics, lasers, laptop computer screens, polyesters, Styrofoam, plastics, paints, jet fuel, pharmaceuticals, anti-cancer drugs, pacemakers, fine jewelry, explosives, light and oxygen sensors, electric fuel cells, unleaded gasoline, pollution control devices for autos and industry, all rely on platinum. I think platinum has the same ( or better ) potential as silver, albeit with lesser risk.

There is one consideration that has not been mentioned. Actual amounts of platinum used on a per product basis are minute - excepting jewelry which is all platinum. Double the price of platinum and you will add about $80 to the price of a $20,000 car. Double the price of silver, and the effects would be more strongly reflected in the end product. This per product cost effect of platinum insures that price will not play as significant a role in lowered demand as silvers prices would.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 23:29 - ID#22956)
bring it on Monex-fella
remember, I owe you...... fire up the generator


(Sun Mar 29 1998 23:32 - ID#25784)
big Bang--could someone kindly briefly explain what this is due on April fools day?
Thank you--I have missed the loop.

PH in LA
(Sun Mar 29 1998 23:36 - ID#225408)
Requesting clarification from C-Max

On what do you base your remark that "even ANOTHER finds himself stumped by the current gold market". My impression has consistently been that ANOTHER is perhaps the poster who understands the gold market's broadest outlines best.

(Sun Mar 29 1998 23:50 - ID#45173)
G'nite Thanks for all the great info on y2k, silver/plat, etc.
For those not familiar with, here's some DOW-nearing-9000 bedtime reading for gold holders.