I've also been a bit obsessed with Y2K, but for me it goes back to early '97 when I first read about it on Westergaard's site www.y2ktimebomb.com The USAJournal's advice on getting paper copies of EVERYTHING is quite good but I disagree quite a bit with them on both cause and effect of Y2K. The cause was not the "elite" consciously deciding to ignore this so all the borrowers would default, rather it's simply the all too common trait of procrastination. True, this problem was known way back when ( to the programmers, at least ) but who wants to fix a problem that won't occur for twenty-five years? Then in '85 it was 15 years and still, who cares? There's plenty of time. Then it was ten years, then five, then three ( perhaps we should put someone on this part-time ) , then two ( hmmmm, this is a *little* more involved than we thought ) and now its ONLY TWENTY MONTHS OH SH*T! WE NEED A YEAR JUST TO TEST WHADDYA MEAN THE SOURCE CODE IS MISSING? Perhaps "Revenge of the dissed and downsized mainframe programmers" would be a better name than millenium bug. I also don't think records will be irretrievably lost but they will be inaccessible for some time. What I think WILL happen is a domino effect of businesses ceasing to function profitably and going under which in turn causes others to founder, etc. etc. Investor sentiment in the stock market will turn from absurdly bullish to anxiety to PANIC and all stocks, good and bad will be decimated. The smart money ( me, I hope ;- ) ) has already left equities and is parked in that safest of all safe havens, precious metals. After the crash there will be a typical post-crash long grinding bear market and those who didn't panic will finally give up in disgust. Then the smart money will pick up those shares for literally pennies on the dollar. As society rebuilds, the surviving companies will begin to turn profits again and s-l-o-w-ly stocks will begin to appreciate though I think it will be many, many years before we see anything like the mania occuring now. ( You know it's a mania when factory workers keep the NASDAQ index updated on a chalkboard! ) Oh well, time to buy some more worthless, barbaric, "mythical value" $300 gold. And some silver ( Warren Buffet, anyone? ) . Maybe some platinum if it goes down some. I think Mike and Mary Mutual Fund have some nasty surprises ahead of them. As Louis Rukeyser would say, "Twas ever thus!" Or, with regards to those buying Coke at p/e of over 40 ( ! ) maybe P.T. Barnum's adage would be more appropriate: "there's a sucker born every minute." Think I'll always keep some of the metal I've bought, though. After all, you never know....

I'm with you on the gold scene over the next few months, anyway. I read where Cyclist issued a sell signal on the XAU today and said gold would drop to $296.
All I'll say there is that in uptrends, downside cycle targets don't usually get met while upside cycle targets are usually exceeded. $296 wouldn't hurt a thing in the medium-term nor the long-term.
To me, though, the most probable scenario is for a reversal to the upside tomorrow afternoon after some more weakness in the morning. It probably won't happen which is why I don't trade short-time-frames like APH. But a reversal tomorrow and a strong day on Friday would put us back in the driver's seat.

BTW, I like the action in North American Palladium today. It had a reversal day with a long tail extending downward and a positive close 1/32 from the high of the day. Everything is going great guns at the mill with the new management team. The results of the next two quarters will tell the world how good it is.
Myrmidon, I think you made a great purchase today. Give it a little time, you may triple your money before you know it. You probably won't, but you just might.
Someone on here a few weeks ago was cheering on SWC so he could buy an SUV. SWC rose over $5 last month. I hope you made a good bit of money.

The Preacher

PS. -- Hope I'm not posting too much. I'm not usually like this. But I'm really into Kitco tonight.
Bart, I'll be in Montreal in May. Hope to see you then.

Your right, there has never been an age without it's problems but there has never been a "global community" as there is now. All systems are becoming linked together and there is no place to hide. There has never been anything even close to the circumstances we have today. We are in uncharted waters. I know I have an uneasy feeling about the direction of the ship as well as the people plotting it's course.

As a '67 graduate, I was privileged to see much of what you have described, including the famous Heisman-winning kick of 1966 against Univ. of Auburn. Spurrier of course did not graduate but eloped and married his present wife. I still remember living in Miami as a boy when people didn't do what Cavender says "everybody does". In those Halcyon days a simple latch on an ever-open screen door was our only defense against these now "normal" events.

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 12:04AM 15857.54 -384.12 -2.37%

As a holder of ABX I'm pulling for your LBN Index. I Don't suppose you would like to include TVX in your index? It could be a winner if they solve their Greek problems.

that field goal. I was just a boy. It was a 40-yarder. I listened to it on the radio. Then, after the game, I went into the backyard and starting kicking the football off a tee over the clothesline.
I remember it like it was yesterday. I kept telling myself. If he can kick 'em 40 yards, I can kick 'em 30, surely. And I practiced and practiced and practiced. Even made a few, very few.

The Preacher

Your market analysis is always welcome. Post away. And thanks for
sharing your views.

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/vronsky040198.html ( minus the EN in goldEN-eagle.com )

This one in SURE to raise quite a few eyebrows. Here's a section from it.



MOTHER OF ALL MERGERS: Marrick Gold & Durban Deep

Although the following Annual Stockholders' Meeting in Toronto, Canada is hypothetical, the numbers are indeed very real - consequently, a situation entirely feasible and quite possible and most probable.

* * * * * * * *

May 15, 1998

ANNUAL STOCK HOLDERS' MEETING

MARRICK GOLD

Toronto, Ontario - CANADA

Peter Bunk, Presiding

Gentlemen:....

Benefits For Marrick Gold Share Holders

Gold production will increase by 22% from 3.0 to 3.66 million ounces.

Gold reserves will increase from 0.249 to 0.345 oz. per share - UP 39%

Total gold reserves increase from 93 to 133 million ounces - UP 43%

Stock dilution will be only 3.5% - from 373 to 383 million shares

Cost of acquisition is ZERO

Expanded global production diversification into and area of lesser regulation, but a region with existing infra-structure and ample local labor force.

Benefits For Durban Deep Share Holders

Their investment triples in value over-night

They obtain international diversification of their investment portfolio

They significantly increase the liquidity of their investment - as Marrick trades much higher daily volume

It is a WIN/WIN situation for all concerned except the competition.

Incidentally, our next target is Randgold & Exploration.



Peter Bunk

President

Marrick Gold

All together I traded SWC twice with a combined 5 1/4 points gain, but I want to get back in. No harm having both PDLCF and SWC. I hope I doesn't run-a-way on me!

Go Pt, Pd, Au, Ag, and Cuuuuu !

It is always amusing to read posts such as yours that assume that judicial opinions should reflect the popular will. You say that it is your belief that two thirds of the American people want some result. The Constitutoin & the courts are not political institutions of popular opinion. They should be bulwarks against popular terror. The Susan Weber-Wright Summary Judgment is a purly political opinion based soley on "Home Cooking" & will be reversed on appeal just like her last one in this case ( 9 to 0 ) which tried to place Clinton above the law. I'll, give you a political literacy cudo if you can guess the correct number of Republican Judges in the entire state of Arkansaw.

Y.O.S.

TAR BABY

Gold has Broken its 50,100,and 200 day MA in rand,
yen, swiss, and dmarks. Not so in dollars and pounds.
Pounds are tough. Yen-gold looks like a move to 42000
pretty easy which makes yen push as high as a possible
140. Being short yen is probably groovey play.
Jse-Gold broken up through long term-down trend line
and through all MA... But not if expressed in $.
Harmony and Randfontein crossed 200 day ma .. not
so rangold .. with 200 day at aound 11 rand. Rangold
has a lot going for it at this level .. playing
catchup.
Gold/silver ratio above 30 day AMA.
PS .. Yes preacher man .. as the mighty promethius says
YOU are good and getting better .. AS Bernatz Xll says
"zair eez no such zing as a bad tradair"

Pete You the Super Ninjaz --You Know my Steez The Rep grows bigger ---- Need New York strait talk --- My advise 2 you ----Learn some Rap ---Check out doz fake MCs ---Like Atoms and Adam ---Like Big V retro and A fake ddb ---Got It! ---Like see I use to eat Sillion for break fust Turned Veggie ---You lucky fellow Dont play around yo dealin with the Gangster Star Yo Yo Yo gotta spend the day catching up on Kitco rapers  yo yo yo

The Nikkei plummeting:

http://web.kyoto-inet.or.jp/people/je3tbc/stphome.html

This has been an April fool's day to remember. The first one that started
at 4 in the afternoon of the 31st with some fools in New Zealand. There's just nothing to compare to it.

For the record, Cherokee, all your links worked just fine from this server. Thank you. Congratulations on your grain shorts. Now, buy us all a beer.

What do you project for shares of DROOY common on a short term basis. I have a fairly large stake.

.. and on RANGY please your projections. Thanks.

scratch with that cheesy offer. All kidding aside, you list 40 million oz. of reserves for DROOY in your golden-eagle article. I've heard another figure of thrown around, namely 20 million oz. Do you know which is correct?

For Cardinal Oris

But send zee blonde anyway .. Ill take my chances

http://www.tor.ec.gc.ca/forecasts/forecast.cgi?city=Sydney?ovince=Nova+Scotia

A judge has just removed another block from the foundation of our Bill of Rights and Constitution. By allowing anyone, especially the President, to committ immoral acts and degrade women has just crushed another stone. Pray God to help us..

Nikkei down 563 ( 3.47% )

Prometheus 0;15
Who? Where? What?

Teddo
Yr card arrived today. tnx.

For Zeke .. I know you didnt ask me but..
Get real .. Any projection on deeps,
rangy, or Harmony is influenced to
say the least by the GOLD PRICE. if
gold goes to 400 .. deeps will see 10$
Harmony ( Im biased .. will see MORE )
rangy will be carved up at about 4$.
But check with bearnose du cacacrud..
he never makes a bad call..

IDT: In addition to the our DD data, which came from the DD
Annual Report, the following comes from the Nov 1997 edition
of Jim Blanchard's GOLD NEWSLETTER:

- Gold Reserves of DD are 42.5 million ounces

- DD owns mining properties in South Wits area which offers major
gold opportunities. Estimates of gold reserves range
from 16 to 48 million ounces in the new region. THAT'S ON
TOP OF DD 40 MILLION WE ALRADY MENTIONED

Jim Blamchard is not bashful in stating that "the long-term
potentil price of DD is about $40-$50 per share if and when gold
nears $500.

Futhermore, the NOV 1997 GOLD NEWSLETTER goes further by
making the following prediction"

"A major move of gold to $500, associated with a higher
P/E on south African gold shares of about 12:1, would
mean Durban Deep earnings of $3.91, or a market price
of $48.87 --- a profit of almost 2,400 percent from its
$2 level."

bout time~~~~

TOTAL ESTIMATED VOLUMES
Gold 25,000
Silver 12,000
H.G. Copper 20,000

New York-April 1-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX GOLD
warehouse stocks:
GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

TOTAL REGISTERED
571,508 0 0 0 0 571,508
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
148,278 0 0 0 0 148,278
COMBINED TOTAL
719,786 0 0 0 0 719,786

Silver

TOTAL REGISTERED
-1,211,672 0 35,968,042
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
1,211,672 0 50,957,881
COMBINED TOTAL
0 0 86,925,923


New York-March 26-FWN--COMEX ESTIMATED VOLUMES

TOTAL ESTIMATED VOLUMES
Gold 85,000
Silver 13,000
New York-March 27-FWN--COMEX ESTIMATED VOLUMES

TOTAL ESTIMATED VOLUMES
Gold 75,000
Silver 13,000
New York-March 30-FWN--COMEX ESTIMATED VOLUMES

TOTAL ESTIMATED VOLUMES
Gold 40,000
Silver 8,000
New York-March 31-FWN--COMEX ESTIMATED VOLUMES

TOTAL ESTIMATED VOLUMES
Gold 30,000
Silver 16,000


Someone mentioned today that it was unlikely that anyone could walk in with $44.6 million and walk away with the eligible stocks at comex. Of course, that move would start a stampede, BUT if only 1,500 contracts take delivery -- its gone in a blink. 255,000 contacts have traded in the last 5 DAYS ALONE. If 0.6% ( 1500 contracts ) of the contracts that traded in the last 5 days decided to take delivery - the eligible comex stocks are gone.

Think about it, it is easy to buy the contracts ( NO ONE thinks you will take delivery ) BOOM - take delivery and NEWS MAKER YOU BECOME. COMEX eiligible gold stocks WIPED OUT. And I you have an instant winner.

For those that think the Asians have no recourse to the American fiat power game, think on this. How hard would it be for the Japanese to announce that they are selling treasuries and buying gold. Take delivery of comex eligible stocks. Require future trade agreements with the U.S. be made in SDR's . And push trade with Asia and Europe.

Remember without the U.S. dollar, the U.S. is bankrupted and cannot afford to pay for foreign goods. So not much is lost as far as Japan may be concerned.

IMHO

Goodnight

JD-- advice: skip the blonde. From one with a weakness
for'm. Particularly the robinbreasted, longlegged, weakeyed
with a bit of moxie upstairs type. Those chances take YOU.

What'd the blonde say. btw, when asked the capital
of Montana?

"M."

You seem to be a reasoned person with this y2k and have
personal experience in the area. Let's cut to the point.
Where are you going to be 01/01/2000?

vronsky ( TOKYO IS TANK CITY ) ID#426220:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Please Mr. Vronsky, this this Netizen slang lingo
does not become you, presumably of the dignified
and elder wizened. Yours truly, on the other claw,
with nothing to live up to, is free to cavort
with wild abandon. Perhaps three fingers of red eye,
to be sure.

NIKKEI falling so fast, it went off the chart tonight. The Url shows tonight's debacle in Tokyo. The bottom of the chart reads a Nikkei
of 15900 - it is now down 540 points to 15700!

There is no stock market bottom in the Land of the Setting Sun. John
Kutyn's analysis is right on. Furthermore, he foresees gold soaring
due to all that is currently transpiring.

2B&c
You are not paying attention. Have you already forgotten?:

"the investing public's ignorance of pertinent data on South African
golds is indeed encyclopedic."

Vronsky will chart his own course in using the English language.

BTW vronsky, I'm glad to see you posting again.

I have been following your comments with interest and they as usual informed and interesting, even dynamic. I believe that you stated that To reach old highs Drooy will quadruple, and Rangy will sextuple. In light of your report of Jim Blancard's comments which of these two would you recommend to purchase? Thanks old friend

I hope Kutyn is correct in that gold will soar. If so, I get a double score. My Japan Index puts have already more than doubled and that was before tonight's action.

They met on the net ---A true love story ---Ted found Pete ---Pete found Ted ---After spending hours catch up reading ----Only great post I found ---The Ted and Pete thingy  PLEASE MR V ---Give it up with SA and send your sheep home  YOU MADE YOUR POINT Away to rest my eyes.

Its time to pull the plug on the rest of the Junk bonds and buy gold...

el, em and en are all printer's measures. I have developed an irrational hatred of the root en since I have to delete it from links to one of the best gold sites in cyberspace. How long will it be before I can't look at el and em without wincing wherever they appear in my cherished language?

BART
Has this not lasted long enough?

Keep that good information coming on your excellent golden-eagle site

but aurator, if the leash is lengthened but one link,
who knows WHAT will bound through the door next. It is
a relatively pristine nexus of the odium, the caretaker
taking pains not to sully.

HenryD: The NY Access futures market opens at 4:00, but since it's not a spot market we don't label it on our chart. Rarely spot quotes come in which, I have to assume are derived from that exchange since they can't really come from anywhere else. The Access market is thin and the spreads are called wide. I think they invented it to service the workaholics and gambling addicts.

Bernatz; Help me out here. are you suggesting the we limit the number of posts per day and institute a registration policy with some teeth?

A posting limit will be needed only if the atmosphere begins to resemble a regular chat room as opposed to a discussion group. Requiring a valid email address is enough. I'd prefer to fill up the spectator section than add teeth.

For quotes : we have a mirror site at http://kitconet.com/gold.live.html with the metal prices that should be updating if kitco.com is ever down, like now.

A little boy was playing with a pile of sh!t, building things. The
Republican comes over and says, "Hey little boy, what are you building?"
"I'm building a Democrat," the little boy answers.
The Republican finds this totally hilarious, and calls over the nearest
Democrat and dares him to ask the kid what he's doing. The Democrat
complies.
"So little boy, what are you doing?"
"I'm building a Democrat," repeats the boy.
"And why are you building a Democrat?" queries the Democrat.
"Well, I don't have enough sh!t to make a Republican."



******************************************************************
Only the individual sender is responsible for the content of this
message, and the message does not necessarily reflect the position
or policy of the National Education Association or its affiliates.

Vronsky --- Conduct Guidelines for the Kitco Discussion Groups - Don't advertise. If you have something to sell use our Classified Ads section. It's also free. Do South African gold shares? Wake up stupid!

Just sitting quietly at home looking out for my parents who are getting on in years, as they say. I plan on being well stocked enough on the essentials for us to live comfortably for a few months, anyway. I'd rather be living on the outskirts of small town but I doubt they'll decide to leave their suburban house. Should be safe barring full scale inner city rioting. If that happens, well, we certainly won't be defenseless but I find it hard to believe it will come to that ( unless the power goes off and stays off...not good! )

2B&c

Neither the responsibilities nor the wrath of the gods are to be taken lightly by us parrots bejewelled and belaboured by our mortal coils. Fury and grace are both meted in abundance by our masters. When their immortality is assured by our frail human glorifications, the enlightened ( or lighted, sans the "en" ) ones will make peace. There is room enough for both in the heaven of our hearts. But perhaps we must pay a higher price yet?

G'nite Aurator & the 'night-crew'~~~~~

On the one hand Canada legislatively enacts the investment
of pension funds into the stock market, funds akin to Social
Security south of the border. On the other hand, a government
official/head announces the unfunded liabilities in the
national healthcare system equal the federal debt, a debt
somewhere north of nine tenths of GDP.

Teddo@theothersideofthis_SweetGoldWorld

Nick
What's going on with WCM?

I thought this was a gold threat, not a psychiatric thread. Let's quit the petty childlike carping and stick to the main subject.

One of the most interesting theses propounded by Wall Street's New Paradigm is this notion that technological advances ( most notably the internet ) have advanced productivity in America to an exponential degree.
It is this productivity enhancement that is extolled as the factor precluding inflation in a new, paradisiacal America. Technology chauvinists declare that computers make everything much more efficient and reduce the costs of doing business. Forget about the millions of workers playing video games on the sly on Monday mornings...technology exponents assure Wall Street that these types of non-productive activities are minor flaws in the development of a super-productive, perfect America.

Yet, one of the most interesting aspects of internet usage is its increasing employment to disseminate non-establishment, non-mainstream, non-sanctioned ideas all over the world. I gladly include myself in this disestablishmentarian category. The internet, in providing access to radical ideas that are not broadly distributed by mainstream TV and newspapers, does not seem to perform a productivity enhancement role. Rather, it provides its antithesis...what I would term, productivity disintegration.

What is productivity disintegration? I would define it as workers who arrive daily at their jobs, filled with troubling questions and inner turmoil pertaining to the meaning and validity of their work. In this computer age, we are witnessing more and more of this social anomie, notably in the white collar sector where people access computer information on a daily basis. The net result...as soon as white collar workers put together a relatively decent stash, they drop out of the system, and either head for the beach or commit themselves to undermining the status quo. Does this cumulative effect represent productivity enhancement? I think not. The burgeoning technology sector is sowing the seeds of the destruction of our capitalist system. It does so in a simple progression:

1 ) Worker operates in technology environment.
2 ) Worker accesses loads of information from various sources.
3 ) Worker assimilates non-mainstream radical anti-establishment opinions for first time in his life.
4 ) Worker becomes disillusioned with status quo.
5 ) Worker accumulates multi-million dollar payout through work and investment efforts.
6 ) Worker immediately drops out of rat race and lives off of accumulated profits. Over time, he either pursues a life of hedonism or a life of disestablishmentarian activity.

The cumulative effect of tens of thousands of such workers dropping out of the system, living off their capital and the labor of others augurs a substantive problem in the normal, smooth functioning of a capitalist society. How many multi-millionaires can the capitalist system create before it "gets out of whack?" Analogously, how many abject poor can enter the population before revolutionary turmoil builds?

The central foundation of a healthy capitalist country is this: approximately 5% of the population will control approximately 90% of its entire wealth. The remaining 95% of the population are middle class, with some 5% of that sector at poverty level. WHen a significant imbalance begins to occur ( as we are now witnessing with the spate of multi-millionaires created by a stock market in complete verticality mode ) , then the ratio changes such that an increasing percentage of the population controls the same real stock of wealth ( from 5% to demographic estimates of 10% ) . Net Result: a much larger leisure/anti-disestablishmentarian population along with a much smaller population available to do "all the dirty work."

Along with the rapidly increasing leisure population appearing in this country, there is an equally if not larger mass of hostile, disillusioned proletariat. These people represent the hundreds of thousands of downsized workers, thrown into the streets by corporate America in the name of productivity enhancement ( and its corollary, higher stock prices and profits for the burgeoning leisure population ) . The net result: a much higher percentage of the population exit middle class status and enter poverty level ( from 5% to as high as 10% ) However, although at poverty level, these people continue to regard themselves as "middle class" -- albeit a much angrier, frustrated middle class. They do not perform society's "dirty work" as it goes against their middle-class self image; instead, they foment disestablishmentarian activity in the same vein as the huge new leisure population.

From all of this "devolution," we end up with a much more pronounced schism between rich and poor...and a much greater propensity for social turmoil.

What does this analysis mean as it pertains to gold?

You should care...and you should buy more.

F*

Old Gold

You got my vote

cave carpem

Is the latest Veneroso conferenc call transcript available anywhere yet?

Thanks....

It always amazs me who little attention we all pay to farmers ( food producers ) who form the real base of the pyramid.

Bye the way have you heard the rumour that Cocoa ( a hiighly addictive substaance ) will attempt to push Oil aside and bid for Gold?

Maybe now will will be seeing 100 bean futures contracts?

The Asian markets tonight remind me of last
Autumn with all the red. Hasn't done much for Gold so far. I wonder if the U.S. markets
will weather this second Asian storm. http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Best to check Canarc's website every couple of days to see if transcript is posted. Canarc sponsored the Conference Call. All that I found so far was his previous Cunference Call.

You say: I thought this was a gold threat, not a psychiatric thread.

A clear-cut case of a Freudian slip. What threat do you see from gold? The threat that it will soar into the ANOTHERsphere? Or perhaps, since you probably are a gold bull, the threat that gold will plummet below $280 ( did I hear something about new production methods with costs of $35/oz? ) . Or perhaps you are experiencing hostile feelings towards the poster you were addressing. Would you like to talk about it some more?

for snowbird
You asked Senor Vronsky and Im sure he will
offer a suggestion .. but just for info . At
current gold price and share price etc .
I rate harmony first , rangold second,
deeps third .. I also rate Randfontein
very highly. Reason for low RELATIVE drooy
rating is because of somewhat higher operating
cost, plus ungodly high resources for Harmony.
If gold goes up and drooy lags a bit, it
will become a slot machine. Looks like Harmony
moving first . Its up about 70% from its lows.

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980402/invest/invest7.html

SDR_er


What trails you blaze! What novel thoughts you encourage! I watch in awe as your razor mind slices through the undergrowth of my dark confusion. What demons you defy! What incubi you ignore as you shake us from our dim slumber! You are the vanguard to higher thoughts.

Bless you.


now, if we could only encourage mozel to once more light his candle.....

Looks like Deadsville to me. Somebody tell me if silver is gonna make its move ( up ) today. If not today, WHEN? Any takers?

RJ says it's gonna hang around $6 for a couple of YEARS! Maybe it's been around GOLD too long!

Excellent post at 2:10; I agree and disagree with elements of it. The seeds of destruction of Capitalism are not the computers. It is the lack of savings. Only a fool will save in a world that only offers poisoned paper currencies. The computer and the net are the tools that broadcast that message. They also have the ability to broadcast the message of gold, the antidote.

No takers. Away to bed to dream of silver sheep jumping over a golden fence.

I was driving along the exciting avenue of speculation when I saw the sign for silver bull turn here. The picture postcard said the trip would be fundlementally exhilerating. But since going down this path I've had a tough time staying awake at the wheel and on the road.

The period of early April ( to the 15th to be exact ) has often been a slow period in silver, even back in the old '70s when we were actually in a bull market. In fact Silver made a great bottom in mid April at $2.15 in April '73, I think it was.

What I don't understand is how can comex stocks keep falling ( now 87 million ozs ) and silver not be screeming. There must be alot of shorts that figure they can get their hands on silver when necessary from somewhere, or there is an aspect of supply that is not fully understood by we little bulls.

Some new speculators have to come into the market and that probably will not happen until either the dollar weakens or the European and US markets stall. Falling markets don't seem to be a motivating ffactor all their own or given the fall in Japan and Asia gold and silver would be jumping. Dollar based assets ( stocks ) have to loose their alure. That has not happened, but it could be close.

Franklky, $6.51 is my key now. I'm not getting any more excited about silver until the up trend is back into effect and solid action above $6.51 is needed to convince me of that.

Hello Farfel:
From my vantage point I have come to have an opinion on the issues of computing, work efficiency and technology.
A sociologist ( Jack Schlesinger ) believes that fasion drives technology more than technology drives fashion.
A recent study released has discovered that the computer has not yet truly increased the output of workers in corporate america.
My slant on this is that the fashion of returning to self employment, ( after 120 years of the industrial revolution having taken away the multi milenia tradition of producing something to trade while staying home to raise family, ) is the trend driving compartmentalised, cheap and portable computing. I would also contend that the
place that computers have increased efficieny is much more with the self employed
than the corporate employee, in that it allows them to multi task and do tasks that they only need in part or need help in doing, such as accounting, promotional matterials, design, artwork, marketing and comunications, research, etc.
An accounting employee of XYZ inc. still has to enter data and read off of invioces etc. The computer may help them find things already entered faster but the increase in actual work is not much, especially when the cost of computer maintanence personel are considered.
More and more corporations are serving mostly as figure heads to sell products and services under, while much of the work is handed to outsiders with either general tasks done cheaper like customer service hotline answering services, or special tasks under the heading of consulting. Some of the biggest firms that I have consulted for, actually have most of the components and sub services farmed out to small companies or consultants.
Big brother of course hates all of the above, but will not succeed in halting it.
68% of america is employed by the small companies of america and self employmebnt is the third fastest growing industry in america. The rest are employed by big brother and corps. Who do you suppose gets lawmakers ears ?
This may sound like the disestablishmentism that you 2:10 post was concerned about. The industrial revolution is almost over, and the information revolution is here, each has there chalenges and moral battles. Creative destruction is the way of markets, new replaces old. I do not see technology as responsible for devolution as much as I see the human condition using technology as an attempt to control outcomes. Submitting to change is one of the hardest deeds for the human soul to accomplish.
My apologies for the long winded post, and my thanks to you all for allowing me to speak.
Nicodemus

Hello Farfel:
From my vantage point I have come to have an opinion on the issues of computing, work efficiency and technology.
A sociologist ( Jack Schlesinger ) believes that fasion drives technology more than technology drives fashion.
A recent study released has discovered that the computer has not yet truly increased the output of workers in corporate america.
My slant on this is that the fashion of returning to self employment, ( after 120 years of the industrial revolution having taken away the multi milenia tradition of producing something to trade while staying home to raise family, ) is the trend driving compartmentalised, cheap and portable computing. I would also contend that the
place that computers have increased efficieny is much more with the self employed
than the corporate employee, in that it allows them to multi task and do tasks that they only need in part or need help in doing, such as accounting, promotional matterials, design, artwork, marketing and comunications, research, etc.
An accounting employee of XYZ inc. still has to enter data and read off of invioces etc. The computer may help them find things already entered faster but the increase in actual work is not much, especially when the cost of computer maintanence personel are considered.
More and more corporations are serving mostly as figure heads to sell products and services under, while much of the work is handed to outsiders with either general tasks done cheaper like customer service hotline answering services, or special tasks under the heading of consulting. Some of the biggest firms that I have consulted for, actually have most of the components and sub services farmed out to small companies or consultants.
Big brother of course hates all of the above, but will not succeed in halting it.
68% of america is employed by the small companies of america and self employmebnt is the third fastest growing industry in america. The rest are employed by big brother and corps. Who do you suppose gets lawmakers ears ?
This may sound like the disestablishmentism that you 2:10 post was concerned about. The industrial revolution is almost over, and the information revolution is here, each has there chalenges and moral battles. Creative destruction is the way of markets, new replaces old. I do not see technology as responsible for devolution as much as I see the human condition using technology as an attempt to control outcomes. Submitting to change is one of the hardest deeds for the human soul to accomplish.
My apologies for the long winded post, and my thanks to you all for allowing me to speak.
Nicodemus

The 80,000,000 vehicles per year is world production estimate for plants already working or under construction and on-line in year 2000. Those producers who will be targeting North America will need to comply with US standards and likely will use platinum.

Absolutely I look for postable news that supports my point of view. I presume that others who have a different point of view will look for and post contrary information.

ALL:
Much is in progress now, and I must be away for a time. Will not post on April 04. Will write from another country if time will allow. There will be much thinking with gold, very soon. We will talk another time, yes?

Thank you

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980401/japan_econ_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980402/snb_snbzn__1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980401/interview__10.html

Copyright  1998 Nando.net
Copyright  1998 Agence France-Presse

KARLSRUHE, Germany ( April 2, 1998 02:25 a.m. EST http://www.nando.net ) - Germany's Constitutional Court on Thursday rejected several legal challenges against Germany's joining in the European single currency, known as the euro.

Among them was a suit filed in January by four economics and law professors.

The court said European monetary union did not threaten fiscal stability.

A He put out de flava to confuse every fella  Yo Yo He the juiceman

Technical analysis for April 2 Futures market xau support 74.98 Gold gc98m support 300 next 289.90 Silver si98k support 571 next 557 Platinum pl98n support 391 next 383  Dow Jones dj98m Resistance 8895 support 8592 ---Good luck trading.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980402/dollar_on__2.html

Hype@hype.com Welcome to the new and Improved South African Gold Page On the Weekend it will be  A s page. out@of-touch.com

If you have any comment please post-them in-between those major subjects. Thank you This message has been brought to you by the North American alliance of Boiler Room Boys. The B.R.B as you know for years has helped most investors get rid of unwanted cash .If you wish to join you may contact us at 1-888 SLEEZE or bull@bull.com
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http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980402/portugal_a_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980402/japan_trus_1.html

Something for the shorts to think about.




Wednesday April 1, 6:17 pm Eastern Time

INTERVIEW-Gold will have role in EMU -SBC Warburg

By Clive McKeef

NEW YORK, April 1 ( Reuters ) - Gold prices may receive some support when the market realizes there will
effectively be a freeze on further European central bank gold sales from May, and when it sees gold will have a role
to play in European Monetary Union ( EMU ) , according to Stephen Yorke, director of foreign exchange research for
investment bank SBC Warburg Dillon Read.

``The reason many gold analysts did not forsee the extent of European central bank gold sales last year, and are
currently not expecting the coming freeze in European central bank gold sales, is that they are not reading the
Maastricht Treaty and the European political situation correctly,'' Yorke told Reuters in an interview Wednesday.

Spot gold prices fell to 18-year lows around $277.00 an ounce in mid-January, but then recovered to around $304.00
an ounce, and were trading around $299.00 an ounce Wednesday.

The two keys issues facing the gold market currently are the question of how much gold the planned European
Central Bank ( ECB ) will hold, and what happens to the gold remaining with the national European central banks,
after the introduction of European Monetary Union ( EMU ) on January 1, 1999.

Official views on the answers to these questions have varied, Yorke noted.

Belgium's central bank governor, Alfons Verplaetse said in mid-March that the Belgian central bank's latest gold sale
of 299 tonnes was to bring Belgium's gold reserves down to about 15 percent of total reserves, implying the ECB
may hold about 15 percent of its reserves in gold, Yorke said.

But recently Bank of Italy governor Fazio said he expected the ECB would hold 30 percent of its reserves in gold, the
same percentage as in the Bank of Italy's reserves.

``But the whole EMU project is driven by law and the basis for any decision must be the Maastricht Treaty,'' Yorke
told analysts on a trans-Atlantic telephone conference call.

The Maastricht Treaty says the decision on ECB gold will be made by the governing council of the ECB, which is
comprised of the heads of each of the 11 national European central banks, plus six full time executive board
members.

But the decision will be made by a simple majority of the weighted vote, Yorke noted. The weighted vote for each
country represenative is based on a formula involving GDP, population and other criteria.

``Germany has 28.9 percent of the vote, France 21.8 percent and Italy 20.3 percent, so Germany and France together
have a majority and will most likely make this decision in conjunction with Italy,'' Yorke said.

So how much gold will the ECB decide to hold?

``At least 10 percent of reserves ( of 50 billion ECU ) , which appears to be the market consensus, but the risks are on
the upside, that is, it is more likely to be 30 percent than zero percent of total reserves,'' Yorke said.

``Why? Because Germany, France and Italy will effectively make the decision and they have the highest proportion
of gold-to-total reserves of any European country.

``France has about 50 percent of its reserves in gold, highest of any industrial country,'' he said.

If the ECB were to hold less than 10 percent of its reserves in gold, the decision may affect the spot price of gold and
that would affect the value of reserves, Yorke argued.

``As France has gold on its books at around $340 an ounce and Italy at around $364 it would clearly not be in their
interest for gold prices to fall much,'' Yorke said.

``But there are also political reasons why ECB gold reserves are likely to be higher than the market is currently
expecting,'' he argued.

``Germany has an election this year and there is a huge amount of sckepticism in Germany and France about how
stable the euro will be, so clearly ( German Chancellor ) Kohl will need to reassure the electorate of euro stability and
gold backing may be necessary to do this, as gold equates to stability in the public's mind.''

The ECB is due to come into existence around the end of May, the first ECB meeting is scheduled for June 2, and a
decision on the reserves issue will likely be high up on the agenda, Yorke said.

What happens to the gold remaining with the individual European central banks?

After the start of EMU on January 1, 1999, every European central bank is obliged by law to obtain ECB approval
for changes to reserves, above a certain limit.

``But it will be very difficult to get the ECB's approval in the first few years of EMU as the ECB will not want to do
anything that will jeopardize the stability of European foreign exchange or interest rate markets and gold sales may
affect these markets,'' York said.

But Terry Smeeton, until recently Bank of England foreign exchange reserves manager, has argued that European
central banks can continue selling gold until January 1, 1999.

``Technically Smeeton is right legally, but the pressure to co-operate from May this year is likely to be so great as to
effectively put a freeze on further European central bank gold sales from May,'' Yorke said.


Related News Categories: currency



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http://www.irish-times.com:80/irish-times/paper/1998/0331/wor17.html

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/upi/story.html?s=n/upi/98/04/01/general_news/uscopper_2.html

Much doomsaying and quoting of Prechter at The Contrarian Q&A with Bill Fleckenstein at http://www.stocksite.com/features/contrarian/
which popped up linked at http://www.fiendbear.com today:-

"The mania we are witnessing in the country right now,
I feel, is the biggest mania of all time."

"it will eventually end differently from a bull market, and no one gets out"

I have been waiting for the type of propaganda to surface in earnest as is presented in your last post concerning gold/shorts/EMU - The specific I am representing here is that the CBs appear to work in tandem while financial markets are fat and the money is pouring in.

Now that the financial markets are taking the final breaths the CBs are splitting into age-old territorial boundaries. Clearly this talk of global co-operation is just that when you get right down to it. The Europeans will start to inject new and more intense articles/propaganda into the media regarding the gold backing of their new currency.

The fireworks should be spectacular as May gets closer. Even though their "gold backed" currency is another sham it will still weigh heavily against any and all fiat currencies especially the dollar.

As the threat to the dollar becomes readily apparent to the US it would not be so awfully surprising to see a bold announcement by AGreenspan to complicate matters by announcing that the US dollar "in order to bring stability to world markets will be tying the dollar to gold with a _____%."

We are at the point IMHO that all co-operative/global bets are off as each power base seeks out whatever they consider to be their respective positions in the monetary pecking order.

Clearly the currency that re-establishes itself with a "direct" perceived tie to gold would be in a position to call the shots as the reserve currency of the global ( sounds good, but we are not really there yet ) market place. My sense of AGreenspan doing something radical as mentioned above would develop from paranoia in the US power base that they would lose world reserve currency status and they will not want, nor maybe be able, ( and survive ) to give up this status.

Could someone verify that they have actually seen gold in Fort Knox ??
I think someone on this thread might have a friend who is a guard at Fort Knox and might be able to shed some light on this matter.
If there isn't any then the U.S. won't be backing their currency with gold ( maybe that's why the US Central Banks have not been selling or loaning gold, it's been misplaced ) .

You can read the full article at:

http://www.shout.net/~bigred/cn0.html 'FDR: Tool Of Hidden Power'

Regards All: --- Go GOLD !!!!!


FDR and the Gold Robbers
------------------------

The next scheme to rob the American working public was launched
through FDR. ( You can see how these schemes keep coming along;
e.g. S&Ls are robbed in the 1980s then bailed out by taxpayers,
and now taxpayers are about to be robbed again by paying for
bailouts of banks, over-extended in Asia. ) FDR decreed that the
American people had to turn in their gold, in return for funny
money from the Federal Reserve. Gold could not be owned by
Americans, but Europeans were free to purchase all the gold they
wanted from the USA, through European banks -- at bargain prices
of $20 - $35 per ounce! Gold poured out of Fort Knox and into
Europe, and now Fort Knox is empty. A false impression is
maintained by keeping guards around Fort Knox, as if there's
anything in there to guard! ( Just like Napoleon who, invading
the Netherlands, discovered that the Bank of Holland held no
gold. )

I certainly cannot say for sure if there is, or is not any gold in Fort Knox. If I am not mistaken it has been posted here that an entity ( CB? ) presented paper to the US government and took possesion of said gold. I have no direct knowledge in either direction.

Given a reflective millisecond, if the politicians/bankers/thieves/dirtbags had the oportunity to rob We the People the gold is long gone.

Of course, in my humble Cuervo induced opinion.

Reuters says that London-based Arabic-language newspaper AL-HAYAT reported Apr. 1st that Saudi businessman Prince Alwaleed plans to invest $500 million in southern African countries.
Hey, there are gold mines there aren't there?
http://www.infoseek.com/Content?arn=a0534LBY731reulb-19980401&qt=alwaleed&lk=noframes&col=NX&kt=A&ak=news1486

As a novice student of economics and political science with 15 years experience in the High Tech industry, I offer my $.02.

The impact of computers on the world economy can be divided into two parts: effects on business and economic processes that were in existence before computers and new business and economic processes created by computers. In the first case, computers have sped up all manner of mundane business trasaction processes, from a product manager determining the probable market opportunity for a new product, to a corporate buyer ordering materials to build that product, to a brokerage house back-office settling a trade of stock in that company. Business decisions are made more quickly with better information. Computers and communications increase the efficiency of markets by accelerating established trasaction processes. In the second case, computers create entire new industries. The comuter industry itself is, of course, the most obvious example. Others include digital prepress and post-production and all manner of home-based businesses that were not possible before personal computers and the wide array of software applications that allows a single individual to operate without high labor costs.

The cumulative effect of this increase in efficiency is greater aggregate productivity and the creation of wealth. If you accept this thesis, then you can extrapolate at least linear increases in efficiency from continued expodential increases in computer and communications network speeds. The Internet2 project will produce an Internet in the first half of the next decade that's actually designed for business use. Right now, trying to transaction business on the Internet is like using a Model T as the basis for a ground transportation fleet. If you think we've gotten some efficiencies from computers and the Internet so far, you are in for a shock. Yes, Y2K may cause a slow-down in information and transaction speeds for a period, and that may indeed be experienced by corporations in individuals in a way that causes panic and sets off a string of events that will rock our world for a while. Or maybe nothing much happens. No one can say. But the Information Age is here to stay and if you're uncomfortable with the rate of innovation in computers and software in the past 20 years when this technology has been though a painful adolescence and how it's changed your life, fasten your seatbelts. You ain't seen nothing yet. Look for massive increases in information communication and transaction rates fueled not only by faster computers and networks but by the wide implementation of communications and data type standards, driven by none other than Microsoft and the Internet.
-EJ

.

Ted Butler- Where is this, after a long search I stil can't find
it, help?

Date: Wed Apr 01 1998 12:01
ted butler__A ( silver ) ID#317184:
Copyright  1998 ted butler__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

There's a new entry on the Kitco Web Resource Links - the page for
Frank Veneroso. Under the silver market section, he talks about the
short position and the leasing of silver.

Thanks!

Tally Ho

http://www.venerosogold.com

john disney@4-1@2321----

the blade is being sharpened with THOUGHTS of liberating
your hide from its' current residence....leave the children
alone.........

counterrally in the offing when XAU 81.5 taken out.
Happy trading

One admires--from a Oh! Their manipulative skills viewpoint, the extraordinary power of the round-eyed magician to turn our eyes where he wills.
Folks--the historical, factual, data-induced truth of the matter is: weve been here before, 1993, e.g..

Rummaging through six years of daily currency data--1989, 4/7/89,Fri, JPY=132.45
1992, 4/3/92, Fri, JPY 133.47
1993, 4/2/93, Fri, JPY 113.95 [ In January of 1993, the yen was at 125.42 and APPRECIATED to 113.95 by April 6, 1993! Wonderful for US Exports--we had em NOW!
oh yes?

The difference is SPIN--in 1989, 1992 and 1993 the talk was of the disaster of the dollar...

It is IMPERATIVE that now--this time and this place--the dollar be perceived as Strong....

Because the perception of strength is the only strength that can be perceived...

See: Vol. 20, No. 3, Autumn 1993 Japan Echo
( 1 ) "The Yen Climbs Again" ( Takeuchi Yasuo )
( 2 ) "Responding with Stringency to the Rise of the Yen" ( Mitzutani Kenji )

I had to leave before your 19:21 post. Sorry to be late. I should not have cracked open with my first post in that manner. This is no way to conduct intelligent discussion on this forum. As you may know, you can't drive a spike with a tack hammer. IE, to each his own. The dow is there for one purpose and gold is there for another. Each trader/investor has their own program. Use it for what it's worth and good luck to all, Charlie

La-Z-Boy inventor passes away in the famous chair he crafted
Copyright  1998 Nando.net
Copyright  1998 The Associated Press

MONROE, Mich. ( April 1, 1998 4:13 p.m. EST http://www.nando.net ) -- Edwin Shoemaker lived the La-Z-Boy life to the very end. He invented the plushly padded, rocking-and-reclining chair, and he died in one, slipping away after settling in for a nap at the age of 90.

http://satellite.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/index.html

Wed, 1995/04/05 DEM= 1.3803
Wed 1998/03/25 DEM= 1.827

Now THERE is a currency that is "weak" against the dollar...
and one needs to ask, "Why?"

Vol. 20, No. 3, Autumn 1993
( 3 ) Currency Appreciation: Reasons and Reactions ( Harada Kazuaki )
[forgot this--off to have memory-improving coffee} {:- ) )

Thanks for the article Donald. It would be much too easy for a geologist to find a mineral deposit on the seafloor. It takes all of the fun out of it. No, we must wait a billion years or so and then try to find it after it has been mangeled and mutliated, torn into a hundred peices and thrust half-way around the globe. Then we will look for it.

All:

Looks like the fund which bailed out 50 million ounces a few weeks back is getting on the other side of the market. Fasten safety belts, and don't get short.

Do you mean that Gold is still heading 296--way before it gets to 310? I see Monday as a change, I thought a low, but what is this gaining now?

Hey TORTFEASER--- You are having email problems,please advise.

Is DA talking Gold or Silver? Thanx...

Should anyone have the slightest doubt about the Nikkei direction,
pls take a gander at the following chart. As Japan goes... so the
West will follow:
http://web.kyoto-inet.or.jp/people/je3tbc/stphome.html

May Silver hit 6.55

Futures Contracts
Updated as of: Apr 02, 1998 @ 9:42 am ET

Sym. Company Name Last Change %Chg High Low Vol.

GC M8 June Gold 3026 +7 +0.2 3028 3012 28.0K
SI K8 May Silver 6465 +135 +2.1 6480 6300 12.6K
HG K8 May High Grade Copper 7685 +15 +0.2 7720 7650 17.9K
PL N8 July Platinum 4010 -35 -0.9 4035 3980 2.37K
PA M8 June Palladium 26050 0 0.0 26200 26000 255

The US IRS chief thug squeals "save us, save us!" from Year 2000 bugs:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/mds2.htm

Personally, I'll be happy to ATTEMPT to fix that vast, bloated, corrupt pile of ratty COBOL, RPG, PL/1, PASCAL and C code as a contract software engineer ...

... for $200 an hour plus per diem!

Let us hope that Year2000 brings down the rotten, filthy fascade of the IRS, an endlessly Byzantine rat's warren of 'rules' made by accountants and lawyers to preserve the wealth of those who would be our masters, while stripping We the Peope of our hard-earned property!

1776 Now,
Spud

May silver hit 6.57 now back to 6.50. Gold moving up 302.2

Never mind gold in F. Knox. What about the 2100 tons
that used to be in the Russian CB vaults?
Leo Wanta are you on-line?

.. in the 30th. He followed the example of Lenin/Stalin ( you know, his "good old oncle Joe" ) and Hitler followed his example.
So, FDR was in a respectable company with his gold confiscation policy, don't you think so?

I wouldn't be surprised if the gold in Fort Knox had disappeared, but I don't believe it. But I know for sure that Baruch, a close friend of FDR and one of his top financial advisers, had shipped a lot of gold to U.K. before the prohibition of gold was imposed.

Alberich the Dwarf

6.51 ... sure wish "good ole BART" would get frames updating!!

ALL:
Much is in progress now, and I must be away for a time. Will not post on April 04. Will write
from another country if time will allow. There will be much thinking with gold, very soon. We
will talk another time, yes?

Ask...and ye shall receive...thanx BART

Now that is better:
9:59

Gold 302.40 +2.90
Silver 6.505 +0.15

Good Morning everyone!!

XAU:

http://fast.quote.com/fq/briefing/chart?symbols=INDEX:$XAU.X&time_period=1-minute%20Bars&bars=600?wstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key=

OPPS..

tolerant 1- I did not get any response there, maybe I was in a hurry
You see the SUN issa out and I am goin for the 5K.

Damn is gold really UP $3.00+??? Is Bart right? Sure hope so!

Tally Ho

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980402/yamana_res_1.html

Suppose Another was really the minister of finance for some Arabian country. Now that would be funny! We are buying 1000 kilos of gold tommorrow morning...Yes?

buying gold now with both fists?

DEATH TO FIAT PAPER!

Spud

Just watching The Stock Market Observer on a Chicago channel and many gurus are warming up to June Gold on the Comex. They say " need to take out $310 to $312 for a meaningful rally to continue.FWIW.

Anybody have any info on whats going on with Gold Standard, unable to locate any info as to why it is UP OVER 200% this morning, yes THATS 200%! Thanks

*** Go GOLD *** We need a ten dollar day.........

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/docs/news/19980402/ROBFront/rbrex.html

That is even more of a JOKE!!---Like some M.O.F. of a foreign country would spend his time posting @ Kitco ( by the way,I'm Winston Churchill in 'real life'... ) ---XAU up 2.26

See gold ??? See GOLD rrrrrruuuuunnnnnnnn... http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/indicators.html?source=dbcc

Jumping in here; haven't scrolled through anything yet today . . .

In ANOTHER's 11/5/97 20:33 reply post, in answer to the question, Is there anything to look for that will tell us when the problems [that is, the beginning of the burning of paper assets] have started? -- he answers: "At first the US$ and gold will go up together against all other assets!"

It remains my opinion that the surge in equities over the past two months has been fueled largly by re-financing of homes. Joe gets himself a 120% low interest loan, pays off his other two mortgages and has a few ( thousand ) left which he dumps into his mutual fund with the banks blessing. What a scam! After the big dive happens bankruptsy laws will be changed dramatically and leave middle class America in literal slavery.

Apparently Another won't post before 4/5. In the meantime, at your convenience, how about looking at this question-- If you were a ME oil producer, what currency would you prefer ( not counting direct payments in gold ) , and why? thanx. P.S. I have Fed Res exchange rates per year in currency units/dollar from '69 thru '94 ( Australia to UK ) . If you want let me know. I'll have to mail-no fax.Charlie

http://canoe5.canoe.ca/FPInvesting/apr2_eldoradogo.html

As poorboys would say, we are in love. If that does'nt turn your stomach, nothing will, seeing we are at opposite spectrums concerning our thoughts. That does'nt make either you or me bad, does it? For some reason, I get rejectedI'm used to that ) when sending e-mail to your address. Please e-mail whenever possible to make sure I have correct address.

Most everyone on this forum have something in common, love of the fatted calf. Look at what happened when Christ saw those idolaters. hmmmmmm.

Gold bullion prices are indeed cyclic. In absence of extraneous influences ( war, political unrest in a major area, and/or other international calamities ) , there is a seasonal trend in gold prices.

According to a study made by an internationally recognized financial research organization, "investors should be alert to the seasonality in gold prices." The study covered the 13-year period from 1982 through 19994 -- basically the major portion of the long bear market, which began in January 1980 when gold futures reached $850 per ounce.

The study results demonstrate bullion prices usually begin the year with first quarter weakness - which is worst in March. This is followed by increased strength in the price to August, when gold begins its second weakest month. Subsequently, the gold price trend strengthens to yearend.

The report asserts there may be identifiable reasons for the regularity of the gold cycle. March celebrates the end of the Chinese New Years festivities, the end of the Indian marriage season, and commencement of the Islamic holidays. August weakness is attributed to traditional summer vacation time in Europe. Similarly, the 11 weeks ( three months ) prior to Christmas account for 40% of jewelry sales, meaning good levels of fabrication demand are experienced in September and October, allowing prices to strengthen. And price strength at yearend is also typically "window dressing," since most producers and gold mutual funds use yearend prices for published statement purposes ( Annual Reports to the public ) - and therefore have a vested interest in higher prices, causing prices to be bid up.

Gentlemen, needless to mention the year's weakest month for GOLD just ended ( March ) - albeit bullion prices have ALREADY BEGUN TO RISE. Subsequently, based upon gold's 13-year seasonality study, we should be enjoying higher bullion prices for the next four months. OH, and an added gold price booster will be the announcement by the EMU in May as to amount of gold backing ear-marked for the new Euro. Expert consensus estimates the gold backing will be between 15% to 30% -- with most educated bets on the latter. For the Euro to see the light of day as a weak currency would ensure its STILLBIRTH. Frankly, I credit Europe's financial powers to be with more common-sense. Noteworthy to remember is the fact that Italy's currency is already 30% gold backed, France's currency is 50% gold supported, and if I'm not mistaken the ultra-conservative Swiss Franc 100%. All logic forces one to conclude the Euro will have a very strong gold backing.

CONSEQUENTY, gold mining stocks should indeed appreciate - perhaps even substantially.

History demonstrates that succeeding bull markets always take out its past highs. This one will be no exception. Consequently, when the looming gold bull market progresses to that stage, we will see each of the above three securities again reach their March 1997 highs. Following are the expected per cent appreciation of these securities. You may verify my figures by going to the websites listed below - just set default parameters for "3-years/weekly and Stochastics for an 8 period, and a Simple Moving Average of 40:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/_charts/achart.htx
http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/g/R/RANGY.html
http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/g/D/DROOY.html
http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/trmf/F/FSAGX.html

FSAGX will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: ....80%

DROOY will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: .270%

RANGY will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: ..480%

Perhaps you underestimate the value of Kitco's collective commentary - yours included, my good sir. It never ceases to amaze me how often comments and predictions made here end up in my Morning Coffee e-mail updates or spouted by some unknown "analyst" on the Yahoo! newsline. Some are so uncannily verbatim that I get a bit paranoid. So why wouldn't a Winston Churchill or a M.O.F., or even Willie himself find value in the only forum of this caliber on the globe?

You wield more power than you think ... all of you!

HenryD - GO KITCO GOLD!

I can't tell you how much I appreciate the info you bring to this board. As a former ( read "has been" ) CTA, I really enjoy the details of the power struggles going on between the various camps. Please keep it up.

Thanks, Doug

Back to the still...

RJ, it looks like Another took the bait. see his recent post

Re. your post --

Date: Thu Apr 02 1998 00:01

crazytimes ( @ Cavender ) ID#342376:

Your right, there has never been an age without it's problems but there has never been a "global community" as there is now. All systems are becoming linked together and there is no place to hide. There has never been anything even close to the circumstances we have today. We are in uncharted waters. I know I have an uneasy feeling about the direction of the ship as well as the people plotting it's course.

I beg to differ with you, sir. There *was once* a global community -- about 5,000 years ago, on a plain in the land of Shinar. The place was later called Babel. These waters, dear sir, are not uncharted. But your uneasy feeling, IMHO, is not unwarranted.

Respectfully, dj

Have you ever noticed...everytime POG starts moving up the graphs on
this site have a technical glitch and stop
working. I'm sure that this is not intentional,
but it sure would be nice to see the little gold
rocket go up after all of these months of
downturns. The graphs in the frame on the left
still show March 31.

what makes you think we would collectivly throw all our
gold together to melt into a calf?no way we are individuals
and that is our most common bond~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~GO GOLD

I can receive email, but can't send. If you prefer use cdevoto@conninc.com

If ya value it,yer in deep trouble,eh.....

I've never been religious or overly
superstitious, but your post about the
golden calf arrived just as I was calculating
a gold stock buy. My calculator showed
6666.6666667 shares. ;- )

On CNBC
$304.30

HighRise

June Gold @ $304.40 and movin' higher!

Cuervo Central - RYG - Royal Group Technologies and PWN - Cash America - look for these stocks to just keep going up, and with good reason, RYG is expanding its prefab pvc/concrete home building all over the globe and my go for the throat pick, PWN owns over 350 pawn shops in the US alone and I expect them to do a booming business as people look to turn anything into cash as things get worse and worse.

Oh my darlin, oh my darlin, oh my darlin paradigm.

On Thursday, April 2, 1992
1 US Dollar = 134.380 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen ( JPY ) = 0.007442 US Dollar ( USD )
Median price was 134.380 / 134.450 ( bid/ask ) .
Minimum price was 133.550 / 133.650
Maximum price was 135.000 / 135.100
75% of the prices were above 133.820 / 133.900 and below 134.730 / 134.800
Computed from a sample of 3278 prices on Thursday, April 2, 1992

On Thursday, April 2, 1992
1 Gold ( oz. ) = 341.050 US Dollar
1 US Dollar ( USD ) = 0.002932 Gold ( oz. ) ( XAU )
Median price was 341.050 / 341.500 ( bid/ask ) .
Minimum price was 339.000 / 339.500
Maximum price was 342.900 / 343.950
75% of the prices were above 340.200 / 340.700 and below 342.350 / 342.800
Computed from a sample of 794 prices on Thursday, April 2, 1992

They are playing with the currency translations by simply estimating dollar rates --rather than calculating on the basis of X number of sample prices...how every convenient.

This means they can try to tell us that GOLD IS DOWN because of the YEN---well, look at the 1992 figures!

My uneasy feeling has just intensified. Thanks for your thoughts.

OK. Then I'll accept SDRs. Why?
1. Shelters me from market turmoil ( they are not traded in the open
market )
2. Shelter's me from individual currency gyrations --it is a basket of currencies
3. I think you'll sweeten the pot by linking my SDR payment to
gold--or defining it in gold, or in some way making it more than
printed paper...'cause I know its 'been done before'...

As fond as I am of the Swissie, the forex people can take down
any market currency at any time for any reason--or NO reason--
so I elect STABILITY, with the hope of attached VALUE! {:- ) )

http://www.usagold.com/Daily%20Quotes

Point 1: You don't know the tenth of the government angst seething behind closed doors because of Y2K -- the Defense Department is not scheduled -- you saw that right, SCHEDULED -- to complete its Y2K changes until 2018. Other departments are discovering that the better they know about their computer systems, the more they realize they don't know. This goes for big banks, too -- did you see in the news recently where Chase Manhatten all of a sudden sez, oops, we are gonna need 50 million more this year to stay on track...as if there was a hope in hades...

Point 2: COBOL, RPG, PASCAL, C, ??!! Try ADA, ALGOL, SNOBOL, and a couple dozen other languages that no one outside of government has ever seen, no one makes compilers for anymore, and no one alive wants to claim on their resume. No way they'll make it. No freakin' way.

Point 3: $200/hour?? Before this is over, we will be able to ask for 5x that, plus lifetime immunity from taxation. Rake it in while you can, because even if Y2K does not overturn society as we know it, this boom will become a bust around 2002 or so, except where countries are still trying frantically to convert to Euro processing...

What's up ( besides the price of gold and silver ) ? Tom

...but the thrill of new-found knowledge can sometimes dull the edge of financial setbacks. I may not come out of this a wealthy man in a monetary sense, but I assure you I am already richly rewarded thanks to the reserves of wisdom residing on this forum.

HenryD - Now, whatamIforgetting? ... oh! ... GO GOLD!

All,

Read one reliable source from taiwan said that the China central bank been bought up 500 billions worth of trust/bond since last febuary.To avoid the 2 nd wave of speculations of the currencies,this is one of the steps the govts act.The report/admit by the inner central hich officer,NONAME!
sMALL POST........good luck!
Not a good week,the regions stocks and currencies hit hard by the YEN weakness and the local own sickness....
err....off!
JIN

Cherokee ...
I love your posts .. I only wish I knew
what the hell you were talking about.

Hi younger brother!!

THANX, I think I got it. Your work here is essential and I should be able to catch up. Do you want the historical currency exchange data? Appreciate this.

.. but don't know the symbols for Harmony and Randfontein.

Please anyone, what are the symbols?

J. Disney - Are DROOY, RANGY the above 2 and ASA enough diversity into SA golds?

I scanned posts again, but did not find a response to your question of whether D.A. was referring to Gold or Silver. Did you get any answer from anyone via EMail? If this refers to Gold, and if it is true, then this should be just as exciting as if farfel's April fool post was real. If you think about it, this is big if true. Being April 2, and taking for granted D.A.s credibility, I am going to assume this is true. If he is referring to Gold, this could really get good if other funds follow.

Technically, ( if upward move holds ) , the daily stochastics fast line hooked down and touched the slow. For the last few down days, it looked like the fast would penetrate and head down. Now with todays move so far, the fast line has bounced off the slow and is heading up. The Weekly stochastics did the same a few weeks ago and are strongly heading up. As Preacher pointed out a few days ago, the Monthly stochastics are pointing up strongly and the fast line is moving above 20. I should mention that other indicators such as MACD and RSI are confirming.

One other thing I noticed on the Weekly chart is that On-Balance volume is leading the price for the first time ( ie., if you superimpose the Weekly On-Balance chart on top of the Weekly price chart, the On-Balance line is diverging above the price for the first time in years. This means downside volume is drying up ) . Friday close is key to see if this continues!

Last year the SA Rand took a beating Vs. The US$. What is the group's opinion re this exposure ?

Y.O.S.
TAR BABY

Herr Vronsky--Once again enquiring minds want to know why your vaunted seasonality/cyclicality gold model FAILED in 1996 and 1997 to perform as advertised! If the investor demand ai'nt there then gold will go down. If the investor demand IS there then gold will SOAR. The other stuff is at best a minor influence, like solar, lunar and other sundry planetary influences. Just to humor you, I plan on buyin' 100 shares each of RANGY, DROOY and HARMONY to see if they appreciate anywhere near your projected percentages for 1998. And by the way, mein Herr, as has been pointed out to you by others here at Kitco, we've been posting about the debacle in Japan and Asia since the collapse of the THAI BAHT over 7-8 months ago, so please cut the breast-beating that you or Kutyn had some special insights that none of us here at Kitco had. Whatever you know now about the coming Asian tsunami you heard here at Kitco FIRST just like we all did! Your hubris, sir, is both amazing and amusing--a lot like Heprat but on a higher plane!

Both are up strongly ... Appreciate your analysis and posts...
and I do put a lot of faith in D.A. observations....

Herr newtron--Vronsky's spin on this is that when the dollar price of gold starts to take off the Rand will too. Personally, I think the Rand is headed for currency heaven to be with Vronsky! You'll have to make up your own mind on this subject as all subjects discussed here at Kitco!

Cheez guys/gals, just a joke. Kitkat, thanx for reminding me that it's golden calf, not fatted. My brain and fingers are not in sync as usual.

Let's take that golden calf ( CB reserves ) and melt it down into eagles.

The Wall Street Journal had an article on the rand yesterday
titled South African Rand Hits New Low, Promising a boon to Exporters

snippets--

The South African Currency, the rand, yesterday slid to its lowest level ever against the dollar and is expected to continue falling.


The rand has been softening against the dollar on and off for
years

The slide started Monday

The rand continued to fall yesterday, closing at 5.0375 to the
dollar, since the end of last year, the rand has lost 3% of its value
against the dollar.

Some economists are predicting that by the end of 1998, the rand
will fall to 5.30 rand to dollar.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Article goes on to state that the decline will aid SA exporters
and the SA central bank condones it and is not expected to intervene.


At present, Rangy up 4.44%, Drooy up 2.6% and Harmony down 0.9%
in $USD

is known as dagga,and yes I assume he inhaled...did'nt we all except Babba,by the way my daughter can't add

Look at the amount D.A. indicated and appreciate that is 2,000 tonnes. This is silver, not gold.

Look at the amount D.A. indicated and appreciate that is 2,000 tonnes. This is silver, not gold.

Give me a quick call, apparently new info

Use this URL to check the SA prices.
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/soafrat.html

Man, this site is busy today! Gold up a percent and all of a sudden page access gets stymied to a turtle's pace. Okay, lurkers . . . Ready, Set, Post!

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/dbcfiles/SOAFRAt.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

You can find the ticker symbols, prices etc here.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/dbcfiles/SOAFRAt.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

You can find the ticker symbols, prices etc here.

Date: Thu Apr 02 1998 11:35
newtron ( RSA AU STOCKS & Currency risk ? ) ID#335184:
Last year the SA Rand took a beating Vs. The US$. What is the group's opinion re this exposure ?

Y.O.S.
TAR BABY

newtron- you must have missed this the other nite. Reality is
that there is no currency risk for the mines! They pay their
local expenses in Rand and sell their product in foreign currency.
The best of both worlds is to have a lower Rand and a higher
gold price then you can really get an upside explosion with
the share prices likened to what happened in 1996. Logic would
dictate that the Rand would rise with the gold price but the mines
love it the other way around.

Tally Ho

PS=Bart thanks for Kitco but it is sooooooo slowwwwwwww today. Maybe
it has to fight the arthritis too!

At this time!

At this time!

...regarding my April Fool's Day article pertaining to a mysterious speculator purchasing the entire COMEX gold inventory for $50 million.

I Faxed this article to a broker friend who acts as a venture capital scout on behalf of several wealthy Asian families.

He simply refused to believe the plausibility of this imaginary scenario and insists there must be controls in place to preclude such monopolization of the COMEX gold inventory. In any case, he declared he will do some due diligence. If there is any merit to the hypothetical piece, he said it would be of significant interest to his people.

Hmmmm...did I just open up a Pandora's Box?

F*

Should we match the "BIG SELLER" with this Buyer? with the provisio of a finders fee for Bart? Turn SilverBaron loose on this one? {:- ) )

We have several very large gold Buyers. Swiss Procedures only, i.e. gold proves, money moves. Seller must issue FCO and Authority to Sell.
We also have Capital Enhancement Programs. US$10M+.
Kenneth W. Smith ( USA )
P: 1 713 783 9292
F: 1 713 783 9352
e-mail: attysmith@earthlink.net

http://www.intgate.com/13mesg/3204.html

Hey ...
Remember Karlita .. and how it would explain about
if the Asian currencies weakened that gold demand
would go dowm because they couldnt buy as much ...
remember .. and he explained it like he was
the KING of economics ville and we were dopeydork. If we
said but hey people BUY gold when they anticipate that
their currency will weaken .. he would just have to
catch a plane .. and tell us how he was a management
consultant ... poor clients. But nice legs ..hey ??
And where is "realistic" with his crapola ?? Gone with
the wind ...
For Myrmidon .. for real diversification .. I suggest
a dash of anglos plus a hint of vaal reefs in a delicate
sauce of impala platinum ... stirred rather than shaken.
Serve HOT
GOLD IS LOOKING VERY STRONG IN CURRENCIES. AM I DREAMING??

Ya gotta spot an attaboy to A.Goose.

Respectfully, dj ( IBM,M,M,M,M... )

speed- thanks for posting the location for quotes from DBC, again.
But you can buy any SA stock in the USA, DBC only lists a select
few and I don't know how they decide. Been tryin to get them
to list RANGY but have not been successful so far.

Tally Ho

Thanks for the continued news-sharing. You are well within your rights
to pick the best of the worst. I was joking around, you know.

Now, it's really hard to get a grip on stock today. Not behaving
normally, even for our aging bull. We see a huge percentage drop in S&P 500 earnings predictions, and they go up, continuously, for 2 days?

Maybe we see the influence of Japanese investors entering the market.
Compared to some of their P/E ratios, even our high-flyers only
match levels they've seen for over a decade.

From "The Art of Contrary Thinking"

"Now for an offbeat note: If one relies on the Theory of Contrary Opinion for accurate timing of his decisions he frequently will be disappointed.

However, this does not invalidate the theory's usefulness. There is no known method of timing economic trends - but it is known that the crowd is always wrong at IMPORTANT reversal areas in market trends. Your watch is still useful, although it may run fast; you allow for the error and recognize that you may be early for appointments, but you do not miss the train." Humphrey B. Neill ( the originator of said theory ) .

All aboard.

I will gladly partake of,prodigal son comes home and the Father
says lets party,yeah now I can do that!

If someone is looking for 50 million ounces of silver from Comex. Forget it. It would wipe them out.

Last half hour of trading could be very interesting...

...ohmiGod, this is too weird...I will post later.

F*

Date: Wed Apr 01 1998 19:19
RJ ( ..... Yes? ..... ) ID#411259:

On the morrow:

Dollar go way up

Yen go down

Gold go down

Silver go down

PGMs hold true

OK

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Of course, the day, week, month, year is not over.


Nicodemus-- ! Like, the microtech revolution is here,
deal with it. Just trains, ships, planes,
steam, internal combustion, airconditioning,
hell, barbed wire or stirrups converting
a horse and rider into a unitary weapon,
innovative engineering drives sweeping
societal change. Like they say, life
is lived forward, understood backwards.

A declining Rand and an Increasing Gold price - combo made in heaven!

RAY.. Do you have an email address for dbc to request they add RANGY and change Vaal Reefs to AGOLY. I can't find anything on their site.
Thanks.

.. and buy a few shares of banana-fontein while you're
at it.

Harmony=HGMCY and Randfontein=RNDEY

http://bos.business.uab.edu/daily.gif/m3sl.htm

Notice the post 1995 upswing. It looks alot like the DOW, no? Sustainable? Of course not. Hyper-inflation and a major DOW funds flow reversal waiting to happen.

It makes me think that the FED has lost it's independence and has become dependent on politics. It is starting to spill over the sides and cause a rise in wage inflation and real estate inflation. I wish I could predict WHEN this will become front and center but predicting only leads one to ridicule on this forum.

I think a gold backed ECU threatening the dollars' global reserve status will probably act as a trigger. If the central banks felt threatened by rising gold then they certainly ought to fear the devaluation of their reserves.

BILL D, STRADDLER: I had the same question re. D.A.'s earlier post, but upon reflecton I realize that he has to be refering to silver. Not only because of the huge amount involved ( as I believe it was Arden who pointed out ) , but also because D.A. has been and continues to be a bigger bug for silver than gold - consequently his main focus is there. As mine is too, D.A. has become one of my most important and reliable sources of information.

Thanks D.A.! How are the wife and little one?

I don't feel too good about today's rally since the Joburg index is down, London's PM fix is still negative and the long bond rate is down. Why is gold up? After last week, I'd say we were short term overbought. Gold stocks are all up, which means most gold funds will be too.

To all:

Speaking of Pandora, I talked with someone on here a couple of weeks ago about Pacific Amber. Well, today PCR announced a jv with Pandora Resources on a property in Chihuahua, Mexico.
PCR will have to pony up C$145,000 and spend C$600,000 over four years. This is a step in the right direction, IMO. My perspective is the exact opposite of Golden Cheesehead, if I understand him correctly. I think North American assets are the place to be, especially in exploration stocks, whereas I think he likes overseas assets.

As for gold, last night I wrote that the optimum situation would be further weakness this morning and then a reversal day with a strong close on Friday. If my numbers are correct then gold did drop another $.70 this morning before turning around. We've got a good up day. Now we need a positive close tomorrow and I think gold will be ready to take its first crack at the 200-day MA around $309. And the XAU will be ready to take its second crack at its 200-day MA.

Many of the exploration and development companies aren't moving like the senior and junior producers. The little guys are moving in fits and starts as opposed to an orderly price flow due to fluctuations in the price chart.
Once gold moves above its 200-day MA for a few days, I'll bet the exploration stocks get kicked into high gear.

Isure, I'm glad to see Bema and CAU doing well today. CAU is a real sleeper. The new crushers at the Briggs mine are said to be working very well. Throughput has greatly increased, although Cheryl Martin didn't say by how much.

Happy days are almost here again,

The Preacher

Mr. Disney, I am going to call you Lord Disney and forget this papal title, thanks for the advice. I got a few minutes ago HGMCY at $3 17/32
and AGOLY at $4 5/16. These are US ADR prices. Thanks again.

Mr. GHEESEHEAD, include the AGOLY in your list, you can also go a few months back, and calculate the prices for both NA and SA stocks in your index, so we have the database going. You can get the approximate prices from the Yahoo charts. Impatient to know.

I hope that you post the results regularly, something similar to what Donald does. Thanks, and please post some of the past comparison data.

Salt at pick and Pay today ..
2 rands buys you One KG of salt ..
.. a deal or what ?? about $0.4
a kilo .. good or bad??

God Bless

Robnoel ..
Good looking models dont HAVE to be
able to add.

I hope you have! Give me your odds. I DON'T CARE, I'M GOING TO BUY MORE!

listen to the PREACHER,ja man

Ok, I too was caught up in this morning's
exuberance. I wanted to see that graph fly
like a rocket. On second thought, I see
Canadian Tire up 2.50 on the sale of 1000
shares on the TSE. Yesterday it was up 4.00
at one point and closed at least up $2.50.
You can buy this puppy for $40 Can. The action
on Gold seems tame in comparison. So why
all the excitement?

FOR ALL THE SILVER BUGS: I heard a story from my broker the other day that was very interesting. He's generally extremely reliable in these matters, so I think it is important to relate here - nonetheless, remember that it is still just a story:
Seems that the past President of the brokerage now works for ( I think this is right - but not a crucial detail ) the Australian Mint which is putting out a silver coin in the near future. They need the silver and are having a hard time getting it. This fellow contacted Berkshire-Hathaway to see about leasing it, but was told that BH isn't leasing because they're still waiting for delivery of 30 million ozs owed to THEM!!!. If this is true, it augurs well for the future..

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100m.htm

http://www.bangkokpost.net/today/020498_Business03.html

Notice the post 1995 upswing. It looks alot like the DOW, no? Sustainable? Of course
not. Hyper-inflation and a major DOW funds flow reversal waiting to happen.

_________________________________________

In another decade equity prices were figured into government
inflation figures. I don't know what the doublings of indices
equivalent to the entire U.S. GDP would do to CPI but something
probably. Maybe the shift in calculations is akin to the former
"billion dollar a day deficit spending" era found popularly
troubling and correlated directly to Treasure debt figures.
Somewhere along the line there's been a switcheroo in reporting
so that those figures derived according to the same governmental
accounting methods, thus directly comparable year over year, decade
over decade, no longer bear any relationship.

What I said about Vronsky inflates 480% for you. You two guys deserve each other! The contest begins at Friday's close! And as the sainted Ed Hart used to say on the old FNN, "We shall know in the fullness of time!"
If worse comes to worse I can always use my 100 shares of Drooy to paper my bathroom walls with as I contemplate the golden catacombs of RSA DEEEEEEPS while mounted on Poop Dizzy's golden throne!

specific instances of your claim
that I make predictions after
the fact. Of the seven calls
I pointed out to Cherrytree
yesterday, please say which of
these seven were made after
the fact.

Vronsky - I don't know how many
voices you are hearing, but only
one of them is mine.

I mean opening Pandora's Box, and you who was regarded as the Rev.

Government reporting accuracy or not, previous periods in history have had detrimental inflation without as much government transparency. I really feel that people rely too much on analysts to tell them what is going on with the economy.

When will peoples gut instict tell the that the dollars they receive today are less valuable than yesterdays? If they wait for the government to tell them, they will wait an awfully long time as the authorities are the money value deflators. It is obviously not in their best interest to let on that they are taking care of problems with freshly created dollars. It would be counterproductive.

ABX $31.10 +3.0%
TVX $4.85 +11.2%

Government reporting accuracy or not, previous periods in history have had detrimental inflation without as much government transparency. I really feel that people rely too much on analysts to tell them what is going on with the economy.

When will peoples gut instict tell the that the dollars they receive today are less valuable than yesterdays? If they wait for the government to tell them, they will wait an awfully long time as the authorities are the money value deflators. It is obviously not in their best interest to let on that they are taking care of problems with freshly created dollars. It would be counterproductive.

Chart not happening for me. Thanks!

The Asian Index ( ^AXCN on Yahoo ) which warned us last Fall that Asia was in trouble just today made a NEW LOW of 875.6 ( -9.1 ) . 52 week range was 876-1062.9! Looks like a new leg DOWN for the Pacific RIM only this time it will be mighty Japan leading the way instead of tiny Thailand! What's wrong with KLOFY? Down 3/16 on an otherwise UP market! Thought they had their strikin' miners satisfied! : )

Thank God CNBC can FINALLY get in its 3 1/2 special! Tomorrow's negative employment numbers would have meant a lotta' egg on their television cameras! Course it hasn't happened YET!

Have I not warned you, my brother, about taking presents from Zeus?
Have you forgotten the laments of our brother, Epimetheous after accepting lovely Pandora and her beautiful box?

"The executive branch received a 'disclaimer' from its auditors
for the fiscal year ended Sept. 30,1997, meaning that the data weren't
reliable enough for accountants to even render a clear opinion on the general state of the government's finances, according to report released
yesterday by the Treasury Department andthe Office ofManagement and Budget. Only 10 of the government's 24 departments or agencies received an unqualified opinion from government auditors.

( .. )

The audit was required by the 1994 Government Management Reform Act

( ... )


One administration official acknowledged that if a private company
had received the same opionion the auditor's gave the federal government,
"it wouldn't be able to issue securities."

---WSJ;3/31/98;A2

The balance sheet calculations of the audit-- assets, liabilities
and net worth-- are approximately in line with the figures at this site:

http://www.arusa.com/tmpls/sect2_2.htm

401K's to become 201 K's or 601 K's in this BRAVE NEW ERA of STOCK TRADIN'! ( AG ) Assets have been built up to a point that debt and debt service is no longer the problem that it used to be! ( AG ) World bein' converted to free market capitalism! Asian debacle marks A NEW ERA in the develpoment of free market capitalism around the globe! ( AG ) Skeptical, but not totally unsympathetic to the NEW ERA!

MY FRIENDS, IF THIS AIN'T THE TOP FOR THIS AGING BULL, THEN I'LL EAT MY GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD!

You said "sainted" in ref. to Ed Hart. Is he still living? Would like to know. Please e-mail me. rrc@hctc.net

Cheesehead-- The Japanese stock market recently dropped
to third in terms of market capitalization, behind the London
exchange. At its peak it was 10% larger than the U.S market.

Current market caps-- U.S. $12T+

Brit $1.942T

Japan $1.881T


Outta here for hedge trimming-- too slow.

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980402/V000728-040298-idx.html

401K's to become 201 K's or 601 K's in this BRAVE NEW ERA of STOCK TRADIN'! ( AG ) Assets have been built up to a point that debt and debt service is no longer the problem that it used to be! ( AG ) World bein' converted to free market capitalism! Asian debacle marks A NEW ERA in the develpoment of free market capitalism around the globe! ( AG ) Skeptical, but not totally unsympathetic to the NEW ERA!

MY FRIENDS, IF THIS AIN'T THE TOP FOR THIS AGING BULL, THEN I'LL EAT MY GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD!

Gold spot close $301.90. Silver spot close $6.508.

In my younger years I often wondered what it must have been like to have lived in ancient Rome during its decline. Corruption was rampant. Moral values were perhaps almost non-existant. Elected officials were unresponsive to the public need. And this situation endured for a long, long time before the final curtain.

It appears to me as if my curiosity is being answered by observing what is going on all around me now. Thirty years ago I would not have believed it could happen here. Now I see it unfolding before my very eyes. It is all so sad. For those with no real understanding AND no gold or silver it is going to be a tradgedy beyond description. ALL of us will suffer in some degree.

No offense kitcoites, but I'm off to buy more gold next week and I'd like to see the price drop a few bob by Wednesday.

I Do Care Because I'm Buying More.

...you have provided invaluable information about the existing low level of COMEX gold stocks that proved to be a significant revelation. Certainly, the psychological effect of a major purchase of these stocks would be tremendous. Let's all wait and see the effect this revelation will have upon financial opportunists performing their due diligence into the entire matter.

F*

Bart ( Kitco ) my two boxes of Mountie coins arrived ---WOW You now have my order for Platinum coins BTW you have the best prices ---Away to stare at my Mounties.

... Notice where the EXITS are and where they lead. The theater IS crowded. It is important to not contribute to panic as this would block your timely and safe departure. This theater is called "Investments, Savings and Operating Capital". The show has been running well for quite a long time now, but time IS running out. May I suggest you begin, discretely, moving toward the exits.

These exits are small and narrow. You will need to duck under as you traverse through. There are three: cash, physical PM's and 'other tangibles of value' such as land. Unfortunately the last exit mentioned is a trap, do not go through that door as it will lead you back into the theater again.

The narrowest door is platinum. The next narrowest is gold and finally silver. But do not be fooled even the 'cash' exit is extremely small and when even a few try to exit through that way it will be blocked.

There is US$5,500 BILLION US$'s in the "liquid" section of this theater, some of which may decide to leave the theater rather to hastilly through the 'cash' exit. Unfortunately there is only room enough for US$ 100 BILLION to actually leave in total before that exit weakes and fails.

That is the largest exit. The other exits will, of course, be blocked if even a minor portion of the patronage wishes to bypass the 'cash' exit in an attempt to egress.

... Notice where the EXITS are and where they lead. The theater IS crowded. It is important to not contribute to panic as this would block your timely and safe departure. I believe we are in the last portion of the closing act. It may be a good time to move slowly to the exits, now.

Good night.

I WOULD LIKE TO SEE POG STAY DOWN FOR ABOUT 3 MORE MONTHS MYSELF, didn't mean to shout fat fingers as well as old timers disease, but by then I will have bought as much as I planned for for the immediate future and will only add small purchases after that. Then I will wait for the ride up and enjoy it.Comments?

business as usual. CNBC cut off coverage of Greenspan at any point wherein he was saying something of substance and preferred their tried and true method of manufacturing what he said. Sec. Cohen wants to shut down more military bases. Japan slid further into economic calamity. The DOW continued upwards. Kitcoites expressed their views, beat up on each other and became vigilant for the opening of the Asian markets.

It was a Thursday, April 2, 1998. And the chorus sang,

Oh my darlin, oh my darlin, oh my darling paradigm.

As a warm-up for tomorrow's contest:

HDR INDEX CLOSED TODAY @7 13/32 UP 1/32 ( .42% ) ( This is the SA INDEX )

LBN INDEX CLOSED TODAY @78 1/8 UP 1 1/8 ( 1.44% ) ( This is the NA/NON SA
INDEX )
I WON'T RUB SALT INTO DIZZY'S WOUNDS BECAUSE--
THE CONTEST BEGINS TOMORROW! STAY TUNED FOR THE TRUTH!

...and a good supplement to my own early morning post, "TECHNOLOGY: SAVIOR OR DESTROYER OF 21ST CENTURY AMERICA..." We are both in agreement about the dubious claims of productivity enhancement in corporate America.

( incidentally, my piece deals with the concept of disestablishmentarianism...there is one accidental reference to ANTI-disestablishmentarianism...please disregard this mistake ) .

F*

and harder to back them up with specific data.

For example, I could accuse you of lying when I asked
you a number of times if you were Bernatz and you
denied it ( oh, bad example, that actually turned out
to be the correct accusation, as you have now admitted ) .

In the present case, you have accused me of making
predictions after the fact. Of the seven
predictions that I outlined to Cherrytree yesterday,
which of these were made after the fact?

It must be here. I'm having alot of trouble getting on this site! If there is a crash my question is still will Gold Mining Stocks take a hit as well? I think not much. The only people in them now are people that still believe in them as insurance or Goldbugs. Couple that with Gold making a move now and I don't think they'll get hit. In fact, there may be a rush to get into the sector causing an explosive move. If the market doesn't crash soon but goes higher to 10,000 then I'm going to be real scared. Everything may tank at those oxygen-deprived levels. Let's just get on with this thing. AG is a coward. Whomever said we might as well have a ham sandwich in charge was right. I wonder what his investment portfolio looks like? To Bart- If this site gets too difficult to access due to a newborn goldbull ( ain't it cute! ) I'd be willing to pay.....GO GOLD!!!!

Regarding my post of gold + silver down, PGMs hold true today.

Never mind

The Dow reacted to the Jones suit dismissal, and I expected the metals down today. Since I made no trades based on that scenario, all I suffer is the public humiliation of a wrong call.

Strad -

True BH will not lease their silver. Or write options against it.

Maybe you should re-mortgage your house at 125%
and buy a bunch of Gold now.... :- ) ???

ah well .......maybe not

I have no intention of going into debt, I only spend my retired pay on it,so far I am spending savings? : ) ) )

Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.74 ( This is not a new high )

The Dow is rising at 85 % angle . Can't continue to rise much further like that. I suspect it will reach 9400--9500 within 2-3 weeks and down we go.

XAU/Spot Ratio = .272

Thank you, sir. I do believe that even if you yelled "FIRE" today in this theatre, the crowd wouldn't hear a thing. They are utterly transfixed by Lucent Technologies, which has reached the lofty P/E of 188.75. The crowd didn't hear this, of course, only that it had risen over 70% this year.

Go ahead, yell. No one will hear you who isn't already awake.

Gold/Silver Ratio = 46.20

In further conversation with my friend with the technical background, I learned that he has looked closely at the Three Mile Bay target area regarding the hydrothermal activity related to sulfide deposits.

I would like to share with you his comments.

" The presence of graphite proves that vegetation has grown there, and vegetation grows only in shallow water. Therefore it was almost impossible to have water convection and hydrothermal activity in this basin. All the basin water was warm or hot.

" Notwithstanding that, there is the probability of hydrotermal activity in the Three Mile Bay area because the three parallel conductors on the Vanguard property were faults or fractures of the sea floor, with the East Vanguard extension conductor under Three Mile Bay closest to the heat source.

" These fractures allow water to reach the volcanic intrusion or the root of the convergence zone at deeper levels where the temperature was high ( around 800 degrees C ) . This setting allows hydrothermal and convection activity and precipitation of minerals inside all fractures and on the sea floor and it can be defined as the alteration zone.

" The heat source is also the mineral source and near that intrusion, there must be a massive sulfide deposit and also, inside the intrusion, a porphyric gold-copper deposit ".

Sorry, it is so technical!!! Maybe somebody else can rephrase this text in simpler terms.

Thebishop

...although there is significant evidence of some mounting enthusiasm by Kitco posters, I would still say that most posters remain wary and cautious with respect to gold's future progress.

That is good news as once again, it indicates that gold investors are staying on the sidelines with ample cash, ready to invest at the moment gold's upturn seems real and sustainable. Personally, I am holding 50% of my assets in cash, looking for the right moment to put the chips down.

News by Mr. Yorke concerning impending announcements about substantive gold support behind the EURO should be of significant concern to gold shorts. It provides positive verification of gold market manipulation over the past two years on behalf of strong central banks accumulating gold from weaker central banks, disguising such accumulation through proxies and utilizing mainstream media sources to scare down the price of gold. Once this news is more broadly disseminated, then I would imagine both professional and populist interest in gold investment will pick up significantly. Hopefully, we are seeing a solid foundation established for a potential "Gold Buy" panic analogous to the kind of phenomenon we have witnessed in Palladium recently.

F*

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980402/half_japan_1.html

My wife has four grand parked in T bills in her RRSP. I have told her not to invest it in equities. Meanwhile she shows me the earnings she has lost since the end of Feb. ( not being in equities ) and laughs at the performance of my gold fund. ( incidently a little voice really did tell me to buy gold last Sept. I hate to admit I'm a lunatic. ) Don't know what to do but it's her money. We have a modern relationship. Hate to have that go down the toilet too.

In July og 97 I posted here that flat tax is guaranteed by 1999.
From todays front page of Washington Times:

" A number of experts believe that the Internal Revenue Service is already in such a mess that a flat tax in 1999 may be the only way to get ahead of the curve. Similarly in the European Union, there are growing doubts that members can cope simultaneously with the year 2000 and the planned adoption of a single currency, the euro."

http://www.washtimes.com/news/news3.html

"Investors should expect the U.S. equity market to decline by the end of 1998, with our forecasts indicating a 25% to 30% decline from the end of 1997. This decline will be significantly attributable to a condition that has been predicted for more than 30 years - the Year 2000 computer crisis. Year 2000 will be financially significant in 1998 because, in the coming year, every company faces critical Year 2000 compliance deadlines. Our research indicates that most companies will be unable to meet those compliance deadlines and, as a result, will begin to see an impact on financial performance."

Read more at:
http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/II/TK/tk9813.htm

In the October 1987 crash ( Monday ) gold stocks did great, so did gold, but when Tuesday rolled around gold was still strong but gold stocks
lost 20 - 30%. Margin calls forced investors to sell the 'good stuff'
to meet margin requirements, at least that was what I attributed the drop to, looked but found no other explanation. I remember it well because
I anticipated a correction in stocks and only had positions in gold stocks, thinking they would be good performers.

If the US equities do a slow fade while gold moves up steadily, gold stocks should hold their own at least, it is a crash that can potentially
be devastating as investors charge out of everything. Stop loss orders
may not be triggered in a crash as strike prices plunge through the stops
and never trigger, also many of us invest in secondary markets having
no stop losses available.
Anyway I am not an expert and do not presume to lecture anyone, just
sending up a warning flare.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980402/japan_econ_4.html

Bought April OEX 545 Puts at the close for 11 5/8 each. The DOW could not close above 9000 today and the mother of all reports ( employment ) comes out tomorrow. PLUS, as a added bonus Asia could tank tonight. This is a day trade and after 30 minutes of trade I will put a stop to limit my downside.

" The heat source is also the mineral source and near that intrusion, there must be a
massive sulfide deposit and also, inside the intrusion, a porphyric gold-copper deposit ".

Sorry, it is so technical!!! Maybe somebody else can rephrase this text in simpler terms.

__________________________________________________

There's an ongoing research interest in these superheated,
mineral-laden seafloor vents off the PacNW coast and their
strange accompanying marine biology. I trust that the merest
mention of a mining interest, at least here in the NW would
raise the hackles of the politically powerful green crowd
and create formidable opposition. For example, a government
funded university research vessel last year was gathering
data on marine biology and ocean chemistry along with samplings
for mineral mappings. Just the attempt to discover the extent
of mineralization offshore for research purposes produced
the strange bedfeollows alignment of Greenpeace and commercial
fisherman harrassing and hampering the research vessel off
its mission, project abandoned.

http://nt.excite.com:80/news/r/980401/14/retailing-compusa

.

larryn- go here and hit "contact us".
http://www.dbc.com/cc/www.htx?source=htx/cc

Tally Ho

PS- you boys that want on board better get on. You po boys
that still want a DIP to get on, well sc--w Y-u! This train
issa leavin the station. We done had our '29 some money leavin the
BOW WOW DOW should find it's way to where the SMART MONEY is.
Looks like we may well have inflation then the sale starts and
if you play it right you may find yourself as one of the owners
of the place. Jest like them boys that owned the old Standard oil
before it got split up.

Tally Ho#2

...yes, it's true gold stocks did well during the '87 crash, then weakened shortly thereafter. However, the situation for gold stocks back in '87 was far different than it is today.

Back then, gold stocks were much more widely held and the perceptions of gold companies were much more positive. Today, a very narrow sector of both professionals and the public own gold stocks. This after the disastrous performances of gold stocks over the past two years. Moreover, the share prices of many of these gold stocks are so low in dollar terms that they will appear extremely cheap to Dow/Nasdaq investors fleeing from the inevitable storm awaiting them. Since many goldbugs are expecting market calamity, they have avoided significant leverage ( again, in my own case, 50% cash as opposed to the average 2-3% cash held by most major mutual funds and their respective investors ) . Therefore, I believe margin calls triggered by collapsing Dow/Nasdaq stocks will not be a significant factor where gold investors are concerned this time around. Most highly leveraged bull acquaintances of mine do not own any significant amounts of gold nor a single gold stock this time around. With a simultaneous bonds and equities debacle, then gold and silver will be perceived as the only genuine flight to safety and quality. Therefore, I suspect gold stocks shall stay strong through a crash and rise extremely quickly thereafter. IMHO.

F*

F*

I can feel for you. Have a roughly similar situation in part. If you or she can swing on a dime when equities begin to crash and the phone is not tied up, ride them for all they are worth. If you want to sleep, I would say you are on the right path. Good luck, Charlie

Perhaps someone has already posted this. One of Japanese ministers said today that Japan is on a verge of total colapse.

With so many mutual funds and their respective investors leveraged to the hilt, we are witnessing cash margins averaging 2-3% at the most bullish institutions.

As I said in an earlier morning post, the normal balance for a smooth-functioning capitalist society is as follows: about 5% of the population own 90% of the societal assets.

Two facts seem evident to me: today, no more than 2-3% of the population controls significant gold assets...and the cash level average is around 2-3% at most mutual funds.

Hence, I believe that we are about to witness the dramatic re-balancing of our capitalist system in which, following a bond and stock market debacle, once again, approximately 5% of the population ( those holding the gold and the cash ) will control 90% of the wealth.

F*

is the fact the mining shares have been decimated, they have had their crash and some of the finast companies in the world are selling way below their true value.

Compared to the general equity market there is virtually no money in the mining shares presently. When the move comes it will be explosive.

RJ aren't you long Platinum/silver and short gold at 301?

Does anyone here know the post where one can look up today's comment by some official about Japan's current situation? Thanks. Shlomo

From steve.blizard@eepo.com.au

Tax swoop on overseas companies
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980403/news/news2.html

Stagnant Japan heads into broad recession
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980403/world/world1.html

Falling prices on Japanese Car imports will hit GM, Ford in Australia
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980403/pageone/pageone4.html

Indonesian Airlines in a downward spiral
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980403/world/world1.html

Latest Asian News Updates
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/blizard.htm

http://www.nando.net and click in business tab on left of page. Scroll to 13th story using scroll bar on right of page.

While gold still hangs precariously over the $US300 precipice, it is interesting to note that in Australian dollar terms, gold has risen in the past two weeks from $438 to $459.

Bill Buckler has argued that a rise in the $A price of gold preceeds a rise in the $US price of gold.

While I am still holding my breath for gold to get to $US305 and hopefully $US310, it appears there may be hope if Bill Buckler is right.

While I am still a little bearish it seems there MAY be some reason for optimism. POG has to hold above $US300 though.

All the best.

seems to indicate that the recent congestion of this week, after the strong rally of last week, is over, and that we should be seeing new highs for this move probably by tomorrow. It's interesting that there is so little comment on silver now that the price movement has calmed down. I doubt that Buffet has sold any significant amount of his purchases, the Comex supplies are at near lows and stocks refuse to close their upside gaps; so I think we are going to see significantly higher AU prices ( bullion & stocks ) shortly.

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 7:02PM 15824.08 +121.18 +0.77%

South China Morning Post Fri Apr 3 1998

Sony boss warns of world recession
Sony chairman Norio Ohga has warned Japan faces a collapse that could trigger a WORLD recession and has attacked the nation's politicians for failing to take urgently needed policy steps.

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19980403014630025?=biz&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2518

Nathan be jammin dude.

Enjoyed our phone chat, drop by and I'll buy you a cup of coffee. I promise we sure as heck want talk about flowers.

DEAR DOW INVESTORS:


We wish to thank you for your past support and hope that you will appreciate the urgent need to continue this support. As you are all aware, we are now but a few points away from DOW 9000. It is absolutely imperative that you continue your contributions to the cause...otherwise, we may not be able to sustain our vertical momentum, in which case all our past efforts will have been for naught. Please do not pay any attention to our detractors out there who have established an agenda to undermine our noble efforts. When these detractors state that there are no future corporate profits out there to sustain the Dow at its current levels, well, we do not wish to dignify such slander with a response.

Although we respect that many of you do not have huge amounts of remaining cash reserves, owing to second mortgages you have taken on your homes and cash advances upon your credit cards, nevertheless, we urge you to consider the extreme importance of the DOW 9000 in your life. Every dollar, every dime, every nickel counts...so please give just a little more. Your contributions will make some anxious investment broker's life just a little bit better.

Although many of you prefer to use your last few bits of available cash for other items, such as food, clothing and shelter, nevertheless, we urge you to forego these luxuries for the sake of the DOW 9000.

We respect that there are many other telethons out there that solicit monies from you each and every day. Naturally, it is impossible to give something to each and every one. However, we believe that solicitations on behalf of muscular dystrophy, fatherless boys, arthritis, seniors' food programs, Alzheimers, deprived inner city children, AIDS, and a host of other community charities are not quite as important at this time in America's history as our fight to reach the DOW 9000.

As you know, we have a big party planned once we cross DOW 9000. Our associate fund-raiser, CNBC, has cases of champagne and thousands of party hats, horns, balloons, and a big cake waiting in the wings...and while you are tooting your horns and munching upon your cake, CNBC has THREE WHOLE HOURS of never-before-seen footage celebrating the entire momentous occasion. It would be nothing less than a crime if these various celebratory items were left unused merely to collect dust.

Once again, we ask you to look into your hearts and find a little something for the DOW 9000. You know it will be worth the pain.

Very Truly,


THE DOW 9000 TELETHON.

South China Morning Post Fri Apr 3 1998
Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest bank, yesterday said it had cut back its loan exposure to Southeast Asia by 23 per cent to 7.3 billion deutschemarks ( about HK$30.58 billion ) .

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19980403014630032?=biz&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2935

Farfel: Gold bullion had soared to nearly $500 an ounce before the 1987 crash. Dow gold ratio was around six. Gold stocks had exploded in 1987 along with the gold price.

Today Dow/gold ratio is pushing 30. Gold stocks have been totally smashed and are cheaper than they have ever been relative to the overall market.

In short the situation today is radically different than 1987. I agree that gold stocks will hold up exceedingly well should a crash occur, and soar into the stratosphere thereafter.

My asset composition is similar to yours. Nearly 30% PM funds, 10% small cap funds ( which I will exit within a few weeks ) , and over 70% cash. Moving rapidly towards 50% PM funds and 50% cash.

farfel- 18:12 you sure did SAY THAT WELL! DITTO, DITTO.....

GOLD STOCKS ALREADY HAD THEIR '29, YOU BETTER GET ON IFFIN YOU
ARE GOIN TO GET ON

Tally Ho

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 7:26PM 15809.79 +106.89 +0.68%

Isure- I almost made it there yesterday! But could not get away
from the BEAUTY of spring. Made all the old house sites in central LA.
The azaleas are in full bloom - screw gold I had to smell the
roses!

Tally Ho

Just have to ask, do you really, really, believe in gold as an investment vehicle?

For those curious about today's statements from the head of Sony, below is the Stratford Global Intelligence Update for today:

Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
April 3, 1998

Sony's Chairman Warns of Impending Collapse of Japanese Economy

Norio Ohga, Chairman of Japan's Sony Corporation, warned today that Japan's
economy was close to collapse and that Japan's collapse could lead to a
worldwide recession. According to Ohga, the Japanese economy was facing
its most difficult time ever. He compared Japanese Prime Minister
Hashimoto to Herbert Hoover: "What President Hoover was saying then, there
are so many similarities with what Prime Minister Hashimoto has been saying
recently. Hoover triggered worldwide recession. I just hope remarks by
Prime Minister Hashimoto won't trigger worldwide recession". According to
Ohga, the central problem facing Japan is deflation, driven by a lack of
consumer spending in Japan. Ohga therefore called on the Japanese
government to stimulate the economy, increasing consumer spending and
stabilizing prices.

Ohga has merely stated the obvious. Japan has been stagnant throughout
most of the 1990s and its condition is worsening. The Bank of Japan's
"business condition diffusion index," which tracks business sentiment has
fallen to the worst level since 1994. This understates the problem. The
extended malaise of the Japanese economy is wreaking structural damage as
time goes on. Both Daiwa and Tokai banks announced cuts in lending to
large companies while it was announced that capital spending in general
would decline in 1998. As with the United States in the 1970s, the decline
in the availability of capital triggered by the banking crisis means an
increasingly aging and less efficient industrial plant. As this happens,
Japan's exports become less competitive, increasing pressure on the yen.
As the yen declines, the willingness of investors to invest in yen
denominated paper declines, increasing the capital crisis.

The obvious answer is to stimulate the economy, as Ohga suggested. But
Japan's financial condition is much worse than the U.S. condition in the
early 1980s. Stimulating consumption must come at the expense of the
savings rate. A high savings rate at low interest is now and has always
been the foundation of the Japanese banking system. The availability of
nearly free money to banks that are in dire trouble is the only thing that
permits them to continue functioning. Eliminate the constant infusion of
savings and the banking system would collapse and with it the inefficient,
linked companies who depend on cheap money to maintain their balance sheet.
Increasing domestic consumption is the long-run solution, but as the
Japanese bureaucrats understand very well, it is not clear how to get there
from here. Increased consumption would stimulate the economy, but only
after knocking the bottom out of the banking system. Ohga, who heads one
of Japan's more successful companies, is not completely sensitive to the
precarious condition of most other Japanese companies.

This means that Ohga's warning should be taken seriously while his solution
cannot be. Ohga's warning is an important turning point in the Japan
story, since it represents a dire prediction from a leader of the Japanese
business community, someone who cannot be dismissed as merely a
sensationalist or alarmist. If Ohga is worried, everyone should be. The
problem is that there does not appear to us to be any way out of Japan's
dilemma. This is not the first time Japan has faced this dilemma. During
the 1920s, a very similar banking crisis took place. The result was a
devastating recession and the emergence of political extremism.

Until this point, analysts have been focused on the question of whether or
not Japan can avoid economic disaster. It has been our position that
Japan's economic fate has been sealed ever since the Japanese government
decided to follow a strategy that refused to deal with the emerging banking
crisis--that is, since around 1992. Now, Sony's leader has come close to
the same conclusion, at least in the sense of facing the magnitude of the
crisis. From our point of view, the central question is no longer whether
the Japanese economy is facing calamity, but rather what the consequence of
that calamity is going to be. One aspect of this is its effect on the rest
of the world. We are not certain that Japan's decline will have an
enormous negative effect outside of Asia. The second aspect is its effect
on Japan itself. Since the end of World War II Japan has been a liberal
democracy, a system imposed by the United States. If Japan goes into a
depression, it will be a very different country than the prosperous and
cocky Japan of the 1980s. With that difference will come wrenching
political changes. We urge analysts to study the 1920s in order to get a
sense of the possible evolution of Japan, should Ohga be correct.


___________________________________________________

To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates
or Computer Security Alerts, sign up on the web at
http://www.stratfor.com/mail/, or send your name,
organization, position, mailing address, phone
number, and e-mail address to alert@stratfor.com

Saudi-Online
IRANIAN-SAUDI RAPPROCHEMENT UPSETS U.S.
By Dilip Hiro

LONDON - One of the highlights of this year's upcoming "hajj" in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, when Muslim pilgrims walk around the sacred Black Stone, the Kaaba, will be the participation of Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.
http://arabia.com/ips/iran041397.htm

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980402/korea_cars_1.html

come marchin' in. Lord, I want to be in that number...oh, when.... Yep, the long-awaited arrival of my dear Saints will be in the morn'. Kosares just called to cheer me with this golden news. Hallelujah!

Looking at these $20. Liberties here....which INMYOPINION are as beautiful as azaleas...is it normal for some of them to have a slight greenish film?...they still have that unc. dull luster....TIA and Glug!

You have been very accurate and a great contributor to this site, keep it up please.

ALL: I got a call today from a numismatic coin dealer pitching ( among other things ) the Morgan MS 65 Silver Dollar for $115. The pitch revolved around the disruption that Y2K will cause and how such numismatic coins ( he started out hawking very rare gold coins - in the neighborhood of $2500 apiece ) would be a good insurance against that ( blah, blah, blah ) . The first thing I asked was, "Who will buy these things at appreciated prices if all the money is gone due to monetary collapse, etc.?" His response, "Well, we ( his company ) will always buy them right back if that happens." To which the next obvious question is, "What if you can't be reached due to global computer shutdowns? How am I supposed to contact you or sell it back to you? Besides, why would you have so much liquid cash available?" He had no good response to that. Anyhow, the Morgans were a compromise insofar as they might be barterable. I'm not particularly interested in buying them, but I am curious to know from any of you numismatic experts if you think 1. ) that's a fair price ( $115 ) and 2. ) if it makes any sense to buy them at all. 3. ) If so, how many at a minimum, would be useful in times of crisis?
I'm off to practice and will check in later for any replies. Thanks.

My, you're up early! Hope all is swell...got a good feelin' 'bout our metals, my friend.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980402/near_term__1.html

Farfel could very probably be right if we were to consider the dollar value of the market now against that in 1987.
Roughly; the market could lose up to 2/3rd's of its dollar value and it would still have about the same dollar value as in 1987. If we include loss of purchasing power, let say that the market could loose up to 1/2 of its dollar value.
Specifically, there will still be enough fiat looking to find a new home things -which may be gold and gold stocks that are much cheaper today than they were in 1987.
Conversely, those with large debts may balance the above reasoning to an unknown extent.

An interesting closing market report from DBC.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/snapshot.htx?source=core/dbc

Heavy foreign buying? Dow up 20% from the January lows? Is this the stuff of the begining of the end?????? Looking for the parabolic shot.

Rob -

Long silver ( all over the place ) , long platinum ( below 400 ) , short gold 301 - 303. Those trades were put over the last couple weeks. I was just coming clean on an overnight prediction that gold and silver would drop today. The dollar was up, and the Dow was happy, I thought it would translate into lower metal prices today.

Tomorrow is the key. If these gains can hold, we should see silver flirt with 6.80, but it had trouble at 5.58 today and lacked the muscle to push through. I think a run above $7 is inevitable by mid May. Gold has me a bit concerned, and I can see the possibility of maybe 310 near term, lacking any further announcements of sales or leasing. If its holds above 303, I will pare down my short positions.

PGMs may look dull now, no? They won't soon, yes?

OK

Buy junk silver coins, you get a whole lot more for your money and they will work well if silver goes way up in price and as insurance against a currency meltdown. Your downside is minimal to say the least at this point in history.

I think I like the Kitco quotes on PL / PA at http://kitconet.com/gold.live.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980402/adr_report_1.html

1-- Markets tumble after gloomy economic report

2-- Business confidence slumps

3-- Plunging confidence in Japan a blow for Asia

4-- Economy on verge of collapse: Ohga
http://www.economictimes.com/

And why is the Nikkei even open?

I thought it was DEAD

To all:

Today ended quite curiously as the gold was strong and the senior gold stocks were strong until the gold market closed and then some of the seniors began to sell off. Several, like ABX, finished far off their daily highs.
I chalk this up to tomorrow's employment report. Anticipation toward this saw bonds and stocks rising this afternoon and gold stocks falling.
Still, a gain is a gain. And several of the seniors and junior producers had good days and finished very strongly.
CDE rose to a new yearly high of $13.19 and closed at $13.12. BGO, DROOY, SSC, CAU, and others also finished on the high of the day. Many others were not far off it.

In gold, a daily "outside day" was formed today with the low lower than yesterday's low, a turnaround, and the high higher than yesterday's high. That's a pretty good sign that an end to the pullback is over, although it's no guarantee tomorrow will be an up day. ( We had the same formation form today in silver, which is another weapon in the bull's arsenal. )
We don't want to see today's low penetrated and then the next move will be upward. Also, today's action, undoing three straight down days with a one--day move, sets up the possibility we will see an explosion tomorrow toward the 200-day MA around $309. Stranger things have happened.

The XAU also erased the losses of the past three days today. It got within 1.08 points of its 200-day MA and then backed off some. Maybe this is just one last headfake and tomorrow will see a powerful rally in which the XAU takes out that MA. It won't be fatal if this doesn't happen. But the market's acting like it's ready to do something dramatic. And not all the indicators are in sinc, or else everybody would see it coming.
We'll have to let the market speak. But I'll sleep tonight in high anziety and anticipation that tomorrow will bring some very good news.

Bema Gold, which closed yesterday below its 100-day MA, sprang back to life today and left its MA in th dust. It closed at $2.44 and the 200-day MA sits way up there above $3.25. It won't surprise me if BGO takes a run at that MA over the next week or so.

Silver is also looking like it's ready for some high drama. It too formed an outside day today. It also moved above last week's high after being down all week.. APH has said the move could go to $7.20. That's over $.70 away and should certainly be enough to "drag" gold and gold stocks with it.
The power in CDE today lends creedence to the idea that silver is ready to move higher also.

I won't know what's to happen tomorrow until tomorrow. But I guess I'm leaning toward something big.. Let's see how it goes.

Happy trading,

The Preacher

Ditto, Ditto, Ditto comment by Tolerant1

Would your heart be broken if gold made its move up BEFORE the crash, as one of the last sectors in an aging bull, then crashed with the rest? Last year showed a good rise in so called value funds which had lagged earlier. The scenario of gold rising with the market has happened before you know. If so, we might could expect gold to rise shortly leading to a crash of all this year or contrariwise the bull might continue to run until the gold market catches up in the 6 to 18 month time frame...IMHO

Knowing nothing about the market except some history makes it easy for me to make wild guesses.

Strad-a-Matic: You lucky dog you. How come you get all the good calls??

I got yours today. When the other comes in, I'll let you know.

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 8:08PM 15936.76 +233.86 +1.49%

They are beauties are they not. I have limited my numismatic purchases but have a couple of racks of different US coins of excellent quality. It took me a while to buy them when the market was nice and low. My most recent purchases have been straight bullion coins with a bunch of the helvitias and soverigns mixed in.

The way I figure it, any time I can turn funny money into real money its a bargain.

1. the Dow will hit 9k and shooot fall back sum.

2. I will eventually get a p2-333 under $500.00

3. errr... Gold will go... Up.

Crashes and depressions occur every 50-60
years. We are overdue. Before the bottom
falls out, stocks and other speculations reach
peak values. This is alsways driven by an
influx of available new cash. Early retirements
and buyouts are adding gobs of cash to mutual
funds. These funds are plowing it all into
a common collection of stocks.10,000 or higher
may not be incomprehensible in such a
situation.

The Dow may not crash until 95% of the Gold
Bugs become convinced that it is unstoppable.

Comments?
( PS - CTR ( TSE ) closed up 4.50 today.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980402/markets_pr_2.html

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 8:27PM 15889.31 +186.41 +1.19%

Crisis aid to cure Millennium Bug
By Robert Uhlig, Technology Correspondent

TONY Blair announced a raft of measures yesterday to tackle the Millennium Bug.

While the computer industry was relieved that a political leader was at last addressing the Year 2000 problem, opposition parties said the proposals were "too little, too late". The bug arises because most computers use two digits for the date and cannot tell if "00" indicates 1900 or 2000.

Mr Blair told a City conference: "It sounds trivial but it means that many computer systems could fail. If we don't act it will mean loss of money, power and influence on an immense scale. If we don't tackle this problem, the economy will slow as many companies divert resources to cope with computer failures, and some even go bust." It was time to treat the crisis as an emergency, he said.

An internal audit for the NHS Confederation has estimated that 1,500 patients could die if the bug is allowed to interfere with hospital equipment. Experts have also warned that the computer industry cannot cope with both the bug and preparations for European Monetary Union. Dr Ross Anderson, a computer security expert at Cambridge University, gave warning that the bug would become Mr Blair's defining crisis.

The Prime Minister said that no new funds would be provided to fix the bug, despite a Government estimate that countering it could cost the public sector 3 billion. But he pledged that 97 million of the 100 million extra funding for high technology announced in the Budget would be diverted to the problem.

This included 40 million for a network of centres of excellence in information technology training and 30 million to help small businesses develop skills to assess and fix their Year 2000 problems. Some of funds will go towards training 20,000 "bug-busters". A further 17 million will be directed to Action 2000, set up by the Government to advise business and the public sector on how to address the problem.

A new central Government unit, based in the Cabinet Office, will oversee Whitehall's elimination of the bug and a contribution of 10 million will be made to a proposed World Bank fund dedicated to raising awareness in other countries. Local authorities, utilities and emergency services are being urged to draw up contingency plans to take account of the bug and its possible implications.

Cheryl Gillan, Tory trade and industry spokesman, expressed alarm that a committee of officials had been set up in the Cabinet Office when the current Millennium Bug ministerial group, chaired by Margaret Beckett, the President of the Board of Trade, "appears only to have met once". She said: "It is now a question of damage limitation. The Government cannot afford to waste any more precious time. Hospitals, local authorities and schools will have to find money from existing budgets and therefore cuts will have to be made."

Robin Guernier, an adviser to the Government on the Millennium Bug, said there were only nine months remaining for large companies to get the problem solved. He said they were "not nearly far enough along the line as they should be". He said: "This is an extremely serious situation. There is no doubt in my mind that we are going to have a mess."

Surely you meant ATTENTION DOW SHOPPERS.

I loved your comment about predicting tomorrow until tomorrow
comes. Aren't we just one day away from the explosion? Your
guess when we are even getting "close" will be appreciated!!

Whoa....... Asia trading Gold up +.90 ???

Somebody or someone bought over 1/2 mil shares at 1-3/8 at 3:00 PM.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980402/wall_st_sh_1.html

SSRIF LAGGING SILVER PRICE THIS YEAR. WHAT DO YOU
THINK OF 20 -30% MOVE FOR A EASTER PRESENT IF BOIUGHT
AT THIS PRICE.

Thanks for the posts. IMHO, it irritating to see Herbert Hoover blamed for the Depression, or Hashimoto criticized. It makes the assumption that government can prevent deflation. Government caused the deflation in the first place by inappropriate credit expansion; when the market forces roll over towards implosion, all the government can do is put off the inevitable and/or protect those on the very bottom from losing their lives to social unrest/starvation/war. If it weren't for WWII, Roosevelt wouldn't have "fixed" the Depression with "government spending". Remember, John Maynard Keynes was right in the long run: he's still dead.

Gold is blowing and going in Japan tonight.

bufford pusser--

why must you scream? you ran the bad guys out with the big stick...

remember? i do.......you da man.

Turn around .....japan down 190

Did they run out of public funds this early tonight? More postal savings deposits please.

I am interested in Kitco contributor's view of the Y2K problem. If you would be so kind and post what you feel the effect of the Y2K will be on the global economy.
0 = don't know anything about y2k
1 = no problem
2 = minor recession
3 = severe recession
4 = very serious problems worldwide
Thank you.

A matter of days, weeks or, if we are lucky, months. Tom

4

Let's see. We collected all the gold. We got $48 billion from the IMF. We stiffed everyone we owe money to. We kicked out the old government. We laid off all the workers. We scratched up all the non korean cars. Any new ideas guys?

oh yeah,IRS just spent 10 years and billions on new system
and it never workrd one day,no way buracrats ( SP CK ) can fix this
mess

4 1/2

3 or 4....But for purposes of your survey, count me as a 4.

As usual, you pick up on the early peas in the pod. How do YOU read this for$/dinar? thanx

This doesn't involve any fundamentals at all but my best guess for a date of a market crash is April 14. Why? It's the date the Titanic sank. The biggest movie of this year and of all time. The mania about this movie is comparable to the mania in the Market. And everyone has read by now comparisons about our economy having hit an iceberg while everyone is still partying. If it is April 14, I wouldn't want to be James Cameron ( the director ) . I don't think he will be "king of the world" anymore ( that's what he said when Titanic got best picture ) .

Yeah! How 'bout a war?

3-4...... I am completely in Gold, Silver and Cash and presently shopping around for a generator to power up the house. I expect the worse..........

0,
but with all the hype, which to me is manipulation; and it succeeds it might give us a scare to a possible 4.

This the power structure will then solve and in so doing gain more respect from the herd.

Wherefore art those junk silver sacks of which you speak? Could possibly use some in me larder 'longside them 50 cal collector slugs.

Tom, I'm feeling lucky tonight. Let's go
for months. But let's not count on them!

Shek, count another 4.

Tom, I'm feeling lucky tonight. Used to be my nickname, too. Let's go
for months. But let's not count on them!

Shek, count another 4.

A big 4

4 Please post the results

When, not if, the price of gold soars you will not be happy with the world around you. Catch 22,eh. Tom

are you out there? Been wanting to ask you a couple of things . . . .

4

Sorry for the double post. Don't count twice! This dumb machine not
only tells me it didn't post, it proves it when I look. Grrrrrr.

4 1/2 here Shek

HERE ARE TWO COMPANY'S THAT SAY THEY WILL BE COMPLIANT BY THE 4TH QT.OF THIS YEAR."LA SUISSE" INSURANCE CO. AND "UN LIFE OF CANADA"

I am not sure. I think that the year 1999 will not be allowed to end.

December 31, 32, 33, .... 87, ....134, 135, etc.

I figure that on December 9,678,982,089 they will figure out that they missed Christmas and April 15th a couple of times.

AND President Clinton's term in office will never end - it's a Right Wing Democratic Conspiracy.

This will allow Starr to continue his investigation without further dealines.

AND of course all Paper Gold Transactions will never come do.

BUT, the mines can keep digging up Gold, making the total Gold mined in 1999 a record, further driving down the price of Gold.

At least a 4!

HighRise

Far as I know you can still buy sacks of junk silver. Unless something radical happened there should be plenty around.

Shek, your survey results are probably gonna come in at least
3.5. What else would you expect from us? We're gold bugs,
looking for the silver ( where we should be ) lining out of
every catastrophe.

got to work on it,grain train going south,everybody hungry
but no money GO GOLD!!!

S & P 500 ( CME ) ( Globex ) Jun 1129.20 -1.80
Japan Nikkei 225 9:02PM 15679.32 -23.58
GC M8 June Gold 3048 +6
Shek 777

my purchases of gold options crested last month at 22....
replacing 2 per month at expiry...none cost over $200. most
were around $70... small price to pay for the level of leverage
commanded..2200 oz. no strike higher than $400..

yes, this level has been comfortable, until today...time to
re-focus...chaos and flux....they be's amux us all...
i'll not idcibm....i'll btfadd! yes........BTFADD....
rationalized.....buy low, sell high..friday will see
2 more added....

the ants are far and few between....look at all the grasshoppers
and jimminy crickets bouncing from leaf to leaf, knowing full well
there will always be plenty of green leaves with which to gorge themselves... reminds me of a race called the peopleo that were once
quite great..great as a pyramid...except inverted. their leaders were
perverted, and brought a great roman-esque tragedy of self-destruction
upon them-selves....poor, poor, peopleo...they did'nt know....they
were somnambulists-extrordinaire.......and proud of their abilities.
now they occupy the layers known as silt, one day to be found by
the ilk of haggis and arden....aeons and aeons away...contact has been
made....the machine has lost its' lubricity....and lubricity is the
key to the machines incredible abilities...the problem is, the riders,
not being able to see inside-her, have no idea that it is indeed,
an empty hulk, bolsterd by the man behind the curtain....let's go
toto.....dorothy awaits.

cherokee!; ) ...storing-gold-in-ruby-slippers--and-then-there's-dorothy!; )

A.B.& C.,INC. 1-800-222-6490 & 1-800-327-8606 FAX 1-864-605-1005

Ok, quick, while you're still interested in writing.

BTTADD!

What?

it would get me in deep dodo with bart....

Hey 3-Cubed ( "27" ) , do these silver junkies at AB&C have E-mail or Location? How do I knkow good prices for comparison? Anybody?

zeke---

good prices here...bags of mexican silver...damned good buy..
big selection for collectibles..mexican.

baja numismatics

5052990402 phone
5052995811 fax

Shek; 3

I see the Y2K problem exacerbating an already-ongoing economic downturn. By 1-1-2000, our economies should be drowning in paper-blood from the trauma of the SEAsian crisis.

Isure- when does Japan close CST?

Tally Ho

Also the day Abe Lincoln was shot....and my b-day....

THE ADDRESS IS ATLANTIC BULLION & COIN, 203 SILOAM ROAD, EASLEY,S.C. ZIP 29642

Despite massive buying by the Bank of Japan in early trading when it
boosted the Nikkei to a +150 points, the masses continue to sell. The
Nikkei is now in negative territory, off more than 15 points.

Thanks for the info: will contact subject vendor. Still need price information for typical junk silver purchase.

HOW MUCH LONGER CAN THIS SHELL GAME LAST.

4 to 4.9 ( and I have been in the computer business for 37 years ... since 1962 ... hell, I wrote most of those Y2K non-compliant programs! )

AT 21.37 SHOWS GOLD AT 305.7

Ref your comment. An analyst on TV last week stated that because this year there will be many more taxpayers paying instead of getting refunds, and they will wait until Apr 15, then somewhere between April 1 and April 20 there will be a shortage of new cash into the market due to paying Uncle Sam and therefore the crash will start in those days.
Makes sense to me. Of course a rally could start on May 1 with the next paycheck.

There's plenty of guilt to go around....

zeke--

looking at a pricing sheet from baja--

they have a mexico con silver special---for $499.00

they will send you a bag of mexican silver coins of
denomination-type-date-fineness that will melt to
100oz of .999 pure silver. the bag contains from
200 to 500 silver coins.

enuf? you wonder how these prices? they have set prices
on certain items.......go get em...this pricing sheet
was sent last month.

South Korea
Seoul Composite
^KS11
9:31PM
433.30
-20.36
-4.49%

~~~~~poof~~~til 05:30 est..

( Down-under...you got the ball...bounce it, eh )

There is a huge gold stock merger reported @ the eagle, see Mother
of All Mergers. Remember to scratch off the en
http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/vronsky040198.html

Tally Ho

GO Gold GO gold GO GO GO GO Come on lets see 310.

Globex June gold up 90pennies @ 305.10

Tally Ho

GO Gold GO gold GO GO GO GO Come on lets see 310.

Moody's changed its outlook for both Japan's country ceilings and the domestic currency rating for the government to negative from stable.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980402/japan_rati_2.html

HighRise

A definite 4+

1/2 bag - $2300 - full - bag $4150.00 This is only a guideline, and is approx - but does include shipping. You can try 1-800-593-2585 ask for Russ Savage - Jefferson Coin and Bullion - I deal with Russ all the time and he is honest and very forthright.

Like I said, this is ballpark, I am sure others will provide companies and names, call them all and get delivered prices for half and full bags. Go for dimes and quarters.

Thanks a bunch. This is what I was asking for. G-O-O-O Shiney stuff!

Now it is up a buck to 5.20
Tomorrow may be a gooood day?

Tally Ho

Shek--count me an iconclast at a know-nothing '0'.
( hey, wasn't that a political party once? )

Amongst all the millenially mad nuttiness one is
sure to hear rising to crescendo, this y2k thing is
a perfect fit for the event. The talk ranging from
pooh-pooh to end of the world is limitless from
now 'til then, the only proof in the pudding to
any case made is the actual tick of the clock
and ensuing events, evidencing who knew and who blew.

The car companies the other day announced their
progress, GM and Ford said working on it and pretty
penny estimate yet to be spent. Chrysler says that
they and ALL their suppliers were fully y2K compliant fully
two years ago. Some of the big int'l financial
institutions stated large sums yet to be expended
towards the effort, large even for those big firms.
Of course, stating all will be well in time, which
is about worth what's said, considering the source ( s ) .

To reiterate, in my opinion, no hard evidence
of any claim is to be had in hand until the actual
tick of the clock. That, in itself, is unsettling
and so ironically apt to millenial nuttinesses.

Make that 305.20
To the Hay

Tally Ho

Hey #3Monex-Dude - Platinum is consolidating nicely and forming a nice wedgie.....or something ( use your imagination ) . I am kinda *pissed* that I didn't bother to BUY MORE. I was waiting for a tumble under 400. Friday's have been interesting for platty and I hope she doesn't go anywhere tonight. The move will be soooooooon, you are right.....again. The Morrow should prove interesting.....OK.

Cherokee - I used some corn/oats put proffies to go long beans today. It is a seasonal play that looked good to me. There is good support at current levels.....or so it seems. w/w. I carry July 7000's. ohmy?\

Hep - give me some good sh$t regarding Platinum.......vibes and comments and stuff. Do it in one of your ways that will make me ROTFLOL. I want to spill beer all over myself......c'mon dude, your humor groooooves me.

Teddo - sorry about those Yanks......crappy team anyway...go Tony!

away...to crack a fresh one....aaaaaah.... ( glug-glug ) .

$ ( ! ) 

of course that wedgie could spell a dive...... I guess that's why I didn't buy more............I love this stuff...... ( yahoo ) ( ! ) .
Bart - save one of those mounties for me....I am jealous of poorboys.......
away...to break my piggy bank
?

Korea down 20.36 to 433.3 down 4.49%

Cherokee at $4.99/oz., that is below spot. Silver hasn't been that low since Buffett started buying last summer.

I bought some junk silver last fall. I paid about 10% over spot. These coins are kind of neat but they are tarnished, scratched ( junk ) . In chaotic times, I don't see many people valuing my coins over some currently minted nickel/copper coin. I could be wrong. Still, junk Silver coins are cheap way to get some physical silver

However, I would think that mint condition silver coins would be even better in times of currency collapse and chaos. Sure they are more expensive, but they look a whole lot nicer. A 1 oz. silver coin may cost roughly $15 US, a 2 oz. silver coin maybe $22. These coins might prove more valuable for emergency purposes.

I know people have mentioned Auckland's power outing and Year 2K in the same sentence.

Does anyone think that the power outage was caused by a new computer system that couldn't handle post 2000 data? I mean what if the computer was programmed to turn on lights at a certain time every monday morning, and that the people set it to run through 2006 or something, and the computer couldn't handle it.

What I'm trying to say is that was the power outage in Auckland a year 2000 glitch?

WASHINGTON, April 2 ( Reuters ) - Britain surpassed Japan during January as the key holder of U.S. Treasury securities, a Treasury Department analysis showed on Thursday.

At the end of January, Britain held $300.1 billion worth of U.S. Treasury securities. That topped Japan's holdings of $293.3
billion and easily exceeded the total held by any other country.

As recently as in December 1997, Japan held $300.7 billion of U.S. Treasury securities while Britain had $287.7 billion worth.

Previously published figures showed Japan sold a net $8.48 billion of U.S. Treasury securities in last year's final quarter. Britain, by contrast, was a heavy buyer, taking a net $22.54 billion worth more of U.S. Treasury bonds and notes in the final three months last year.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980402/treasury_h_1.html

Looks like Endland is filling the Gap - I doubt it, probably more of the shell Game.

HighRise

shek-4--

i'm buying some fractionals friday....will
re-check the junk silver 100oz price.

desecrate the memories or resting places of your tribe. The blood of your Nation flows through the veins of three of the esteemed group I am associated with, all of whom incidentally have been CEO's of US public companies - this ilk could lose his scalp if he did not respect history!

I want to apologize to all of you for suggesting a couple weeks ago ( when gold hit 300 ) that you should all sell as gold was at its peak - or so I thought. Obviously I was wrong, and although I have already sold every ounce I must admit that had I waited just a couple more weeks I could have earned an extra $2.60 per ounce ( $US ) ! I hope that most of you did not listen to my compelling advice before because right now we are seeing an even greater opportunity to really make it big by selling gold! SELL, SELL, SELL! Do it fast before gold loses its strength and momentum! I am ashamed for giving you faulty advice before, but one can never be sure of these things - unless, of course, if you are another! This time, however, I know I am right. Please, get out of gold while you can. Remember, gold only has MYSTICAL VALUE. The last gold bull has peaked, it is time to move on to the new, real holdings of value. Catch up with the times - save your family from certain ruin. Sell that gold and buy Compaq, CompUSA, and Ford! Do it while the prices are low! I heard a stock broker say on the radio that the Dow would just keep going up. It's true! Believe it. The proof is undeniable! I only say this because I care deeply for you all. Good Luck! - c

COMEX gold and silver futures ended significantly higher Thursday,
but NYMEX platinum group metals futures finished mixed.

"Silver was clearly the leader today, on a lot of delta options
hedge buying in New York, ahead of the options expiry next
Thursday," said Merrill Lynch director of commodities research,
Bill O'Neill.

"Gold benefited from the rally in silver but also from further
comments from French and Italian officials suggesting gold had a
role to play in EMU ( European Monetary Union ) ," Merrill Lynch's
O'Neill said.

On Wednesday SBC Warburg Dillon Read analyst Stephen Yorke said he
thought the planned ECB would hold 15-30 pct of its reserves in
gold as the Maastricht Treaty effectively gave France and Germany
the right to make the decision.

Bill & Hillary just walked back into the White House arm and arm. CNBC's prattle today about Dow 9000 was just a dress rehearsal: the fund managers know they'll get more mileage out of Dow 9000 if they "do" it on Friday and can spin it all weekend long. Welcome home, Bill; perception is reality, style is substance, the world is perverted.

Hi.I've mentioned Auckland's power outtage as a model for Y2k. This stems NOT from any known computer glitch. As far is known, just from the news, their problem was purely mechanical. Three cables went out, resulting in a collapse of the remaining system that was overburdened. The only reason it came up as a Y2K model is that it is a possibility that some non-compliant chips will remain unnoticed until they stop functioning properly at the 00 date change, causing localized failures. If enough of these failures occur, one might see a reaction like Auckland's. A destruction of that part of the system that didn't collapse. That's all.

The ability of POG to move modestly higher despite renewed financial turmoil in Asia stands in marked contrast to last fall. This action is EXTREMELY BULLISH.

I too subsribe to the idea that POG will move significantly higher BEFORE the stock market breaks down. Then down a little as everything else implodes. Then up a lot. A whole lot.

As Ray would say:

Tally ho!

The ability of POG to move modestly higher despite renewed financial turmoil in Asia stands in marked contrast to last fall. This action is EXTREMELY BULLISH.

I too subsribe to the idea that POG will move significantly higher BEFORE the stock market breaks down. Then down a little as everything else implodes. Then up a lot. A whole lot.

As Ray would say:

Tally ho!

Shek, Hate to tell you and whoever wrote that interesting article, but you will not see a flat tax in 1999. Not as long as we have the know nothing, do nothing boobs in Washington that are to self serving to be able to agree on a picnic.

Earlier this year I was contacted to see if I wanted to be part of the Republican effort here in Missouri and if I would like to hear a recorded message by good ole boy N. Ginrich...I listened to the recording. Memory serves, the rep's had shot down the flat tax the demo's had proposed, now seems the rep's what to sponsor a flat tax. I graciously had to decline after I chucked to the person who had called.

You won't see it, period. Neither side will allow the other to gain the advantage by being the sponsor, and will always shoot the other's idea down.

What I think you might end up with at most, will be a consumption tax that will be put together in a last minute desperate attempt to keep our government going. This will happen when someone in our government finally realizes they have procrastinated far to long and they are all about to loose their jobs. ( no more money left to pay themselves ) How unfortunate.

How quick do you think they could implement a flat tax at this point.

Won't happen!!!

Put me down for a 5 in your survey. This is going to be even worst than my post over a month ago.

Can you spell G O O D B Y E G O V E R N M E N T......

The ability of POG to move modestly higher despite renewed financial turmoil in Asia stands in marked contrast to last fall. This action is EXTREMELY BULLISH.

I too subsribe to the idea that POG will move significantly higher BEFORE the stock market breaks down. Then down a little as everything else implodes. Then up a lot. A whole lot.

As Ray would say:

Tally ho!

From what I have read on Auckland it is not a y2k problem.
Only the Central Business District is without power. If
the grid went down, probably the whole place would be without.
There was a lot of news about it when I was in Hawaii last
month. Those that could moved their offices home in the suburbs
where they had full power. It was thought that the cables
carrying power to the CBD melted due to the hot summer from
El-Nino, but that has been officially denied. Surely if they
were testing a system for y2k compliance, they would have done
so in a far less populated area. No official cause has yet
been determined.

Man, I dogged Cherrywee last night with that
TNT comment. He wimpered off to nurse his
wounds, probably used a magnetic bracelet.
Currently I am dogging a guy purporting
to be Chris over on K-2.
I bought platinum last in 1995, when it was
around $415. It will be at $415 again on
April 15.
Does Mr. Vronsky have any direct evidence
of massive intervention by the BOJ tonight,
or is he just guessing?

arden--

i hope not to be amongst the 'general' flotsam and jetsam
that will be found in great deposits where the great cities
used to exist. sets the scenario for the possibility of a
fictional book of how the great oil-fields came to be...

10000 thousand years ago, a great group of peopleo existed in
small areas...their currencies collapsed due to the de-coupling
from the golden potato...it was a horrible sight to see...shortly
there-after, and after a cult suicide, a comet passed too close
to earth, and burned them all to a crisp....thus was spindletop
and the austin chalk formed....prudehoe bay is ANOTHER STORY....

!; ) ...life-is-good-------make-it-safer---buy-gold-and-silver------

Shek - put me down for ANOTHER - 4

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Anybody ever seen a cash index make and hold a new high, while the future couldnt get there? I dont remember such. Dow and DJM did that today.
Hmmmmmmmm?????

yes, i am. i think we will head in to a sharp bear market, starting
no later than early next week, which will plunge in 12/18/98, as a first
stop. it will be total carnage, looking back. i am stocking my mountain
cabin -- many umc communities across the country and around where i live will become Weed Farms withing five years.

I just trade the chart day by day. But the best stock picker I know,
who bought hand over fist on 1/12/98, just left here after selling more
stock than he's ever sold in one day. Didnt tell me why-----he just did it.
Guess he'll clue me in later.: )

i know it must sound like babble to someone who doesn't follow this
stuff daily. the upshot is this -- i realize i may be wrong. but, if not,
this is the most dangerous situation any of us have ever seen. i don't
think it will resolve itself like 1987, that would be good, optimistic.
this one could go and keep going.

I've no idea where we'll be in a week---or even at tomorrows close.
But today's high in the spoos WILL break tomorrow.

possible. but, i am looking for a lower close tomorrow, and a lower
week next week.

Most bearish thing would be to run it way up tonite, then not see
that globex high for a century or so. But if tomorrow is an up close, we're
in blowoff city. Gone outdoors. bbl.

the first down phase may last until 12/18/98. *if* we have seen a
supercycle top - and that is what i believe until proven wrong - we could
easily see the 1994 range visited this year.

the "buy" is not a consideration for me, at all. zero, zilch, nada.
this is the kind of market that *could* do what the gold market did when it
finished. the idea of holding overnight longs here, to me, is a horror
story.

just think, ofter 1150 breaks, 1200 will only be a measly 50 handles away. BTW my price prediction before a break is 1280 spoos. I think the Dow will get to 11,200 and all that's gonna happen this month, maybe early May

you're on. I am saying that no later than 5/15/98 the DOW will have
traded above 11,000 and the spoos above 1240. More than likely absurdly impossible, but I have had my eyes on those #s for 8 months

The Jones dismissal is a sign. Our very slick, teflon emperor will suffer
no political or legal damage. There is absolutely NOTHING out there that
could cosmically interfere with this market. At this time the only thing
that can take the market down is the market itself. Like a child testing
the limits and waiting to see when the authority figure will step in and
say "too far", the market will press it until the CBs freak out and are
compelled into action, that is really all I can think of. The only other
thing would be Rubin and/or Greenspan dying suddenly. Somehow the energy of an out of control market produces cosmic interference. The 2 seem to work in tandem - one cannot exist without the other. It's weird, but I think that is how it works. But right now, and I could care less what happens tomorrow, that point where the price meets its cosmically interfering counterpart is very far away indeed, imo, thus the TREND is your AMIGO

I don't know cosmic from cosmetic, but we have a healthy economy, with baby boomers in prime earning years amply rewarded for socking huge amounts into the market. They're not going to sell. We just keep going up. Given the gains of the past few years, even a traditional bear turn would not knock these people out of the market. Correct, yes - we need to, but crash here and now? Takes a buyer and a seller to make a market. I suppose we'll see in the coming weeks.

not sure, but prices will get so blown up, there'll be a tremendous
amount of pressure to 'do something' about it. I believe history repeats
itself, and the way the $$ is trading, I see rate hikes - BIG ones - to
stop the advance. I am unbelievably blown away that it has taken 3 years and I am still waiting for the rate bomb to go off - and not a chintzy 1/4 point either

dudeck ( sp? ) will move out of the bear box very soon. It is idiotic to
be bearish right now anyway. It would be credible on her part to at least
go nuetral, considering what sarue just said, even if the market DID break here, it'd take MONTHS to work out the trend voodoo before we knew conclusively we were definitely in a bear market. But the thing is when people are wrong in the market, they ALWAYS are against the trend and they are REALLY wrong and wild horses can't get them to change their mind. The more wrond the market proves them to be, the more they dig in until finally it gets SO BAD, and they look SO STUPID, that for the sake of redeeming ANY professional credibility, the change their mind. Gail Dudeck is a CLASSIC study, and I can't WAIT until she turns bullish!

you have milked the upside with a great entry around 2/3 - 2/6, your
remarks should be very important to most here as you have shown your market savvy time and time again. I am on the look out for signs of weakness just because of your statements. Until things change I will continue to buy.

the only problem with that theory is this -- many bears will get
their licking by turning bullish as the market declines. it will look cheap
even to them at 8000, 7000, 6000, 5000, 4000, 3000,

just remember all the boomers been averaging UP for a long time now
( not down as the fund mgrs suggest is good ) ..the breakeven gets higher and higher and the amount of money invested has prob grown at the higher levels..if and when they see all the gains gone with red on the balance sheet they WILL panic..

I suppose the argument is that once everyone is bullish the last
dollar has been put in the market. What I don't know is how much is coming in from ongoing earnings in 401k plans and the like. If this is sufficient to keep the market afloat it has a long way to go yet. If it's been
climbing because people have been putting savings from cash to work then things could slow down.

..... babbling on about sentiment and amateur bears: for many many months the permabears here were talking position trade shorts. now, you here very little of that. for many months, a large number showed up after each days tarding. where are they now? where is steve spuetz? why aren't the hounds of the baskervilles barking?

I'm sure there are many more amateurs involved in the markets now than ever before, but most amateurs only know how to buy, they are scared to death of selling.

it will be no different than all other mkts..the late comers with the
highest cost will bail first..then the next layer will kick in..and so on
until the avalanche occurs..let it be written..only question is
where/when..

stolen from usenet, gary smith: Subject: Will Employment Friday Bring Joy
to Bearville?? Date: 2 Apr 1998 20:39:13 GMT From: "Gary Smith"
hiyield@caveland.net Organization: All USENET -- site link Newsgroups:
misc.invest.futures, misc.invest.stocks, misc.invest.mutual-funds Since its
low on January 12, the stock market has been in an almost parabolic rise, up over 1400 points in the Dow. But how can this be? The prophets of peril have been telling us the entire way, it's a fools' rally. And no one wants to be a fool. Unless of course it's a rich fool. The trumpeters of tragedy began playing their song back in mid-January. It was at that time we were sternly warned to watch out, the Fosback high/low Logic index had just flashed one of its rare sell signals. Then in early February, another maven of mishap e-mails me with a special two week free trial offer to his fax service. He reminded me that the market, although at a new high, was extremely overbought with the most glaring non-confirmations of any high over the past year. He then rambled on about 42 day cycles and sloppy Elliott Wave patterns. ( I passed on the free offer ) Come mid-February, and up pops another peddler of panic telling us various sentiment indicators are at the same high readings as were present before the mini-crash of October 1997 and the 9% decline of March/April 1997. Also around mid-February, we get a crash warning in the newsgroups at Dow 8369. Seems that the market had carved out in almost identical cyclical fashion to the market tops of 1987, 1990, and 1997. March brings new worries from the mavens of mishap. The headlines scream, "OUR FIBONACCI TARGET NUMBER HAS
BEEN HIT" so watch out below. Other prominent pessimists tell us the tick readings don't look good, the Commitments of Traders Report is at its worst level in years, the Wall Street Elves Index is at a major sell reading, ( on a contrary basis ) and some animalistic sounding wave theory is proclaims SELL! It's a good thing we bulls aren't too bright. The analysis by the bears sure must have seemed impressive to those bright enough to understand all their mumbo jumbo rhetoric about some bubble about to burst at a moment's notice. Still, someday the wrong way Corrigans will get it right - at least temporarily. All this talk on CNBC about their special three hour bull lovefest when the Dow closes above 9000 is a bit worrisome. And tomorrow is employment Friday. In the past, that day has often been party time for the bears. So what's my prediction? Who cares? I'm not immune to bouts of bearish stupidity. If I had been foolish enough to act upon my occasional bearish impulses these past three months, I would be about $60,000 poorer. I've come to learn that when bulls like myself turn bearish, that's proved to be an opportune time to be buying. I'm a great contrary indicator of the market and often have used my bearishness to my advantage by buying instead of selling. ( Who says trading isn't 85% or more psychological? ) Nevertheless, I'll be watching tomorrow very closely. About the only indicators that still give me any bullish comfort are the McClelland Oscillator, the index options put buying ( *everybody* is expecting a correction ) and the Utility index. You gotta love the action of the Utilities. One has to believe this powerful bull market is best left unexplained. Just exploit it for as much as you can and as long as you can. When the trend changes, run like a thief. Gary Smith

U.S. Global Investors ( GROW ) Has 12.54% Of Franc-Or Resources Shrs

SAN ANTONIO ( Dow Jones ) --U.S. Global Investors Inc. ( GROW ) has acquired a 12.54% stake in Canadian mining company Franc-Or Resources Corp.
U.S. Global said it made the purchases for investment purposes and "does not have any present intention to increase its control or direction over such securities."

April fools day was yesterday in case you lost your calendar.

This is far from the only place it has been found, but I now have personal access to the following which has been found in a college library's rare book collection:

"The Revised code of the laws of Virginia : being a collection of all such acts of the General Assembly, of a public and permanent nature as are now in force; with a general index. To which are prefixed, the constitution of the United States; the declaration of rights; and the constitution of Virginia. Published pursuant to an act of the General assembly, entitled "An act providing for the re-publication of the laws of this commonwealth." passed March 12, 1819.

On page 30 is printed the header "Federal Constitution" and below is found:

Article 13
If any citizen of the United States shall accept, claim, receive, or retain any title of nobility or honor, or shall, without the consent of congress, accept any present, pension, office, or emolument of any kind whatever, from any emperor, king, prince, or foreign power, such person shall cease to be a citizen of the United States, and shall be incapable of holding any office of trust or profit under them, or either of them.

*******************************
This ORIGINAL 13th Amendment to the constitution is the law in Virginia. The complete potential importance of this amendment cannot be understood unless you know what the words "title of nobility" and "title of honor" meant in 1819 and unless you know whence came the Bar and the attorney privilege. Suffice it to say, this amendment forbids all Dewey Cheatum, Esq. from places in government and no Judge who would be a Judge can demand to be called "Your Honor" when it is enforced. This amendment has been until now lost to us, the Posterity, through the perfidy of a lawyer named Patton.

Some say an individual can do nothing. I say that's a serf's excuse for staying in his foxhole or on his chain.

"If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen." - Samuel Adams."

Off your asses, Americans. You have nothing to lose but your chains. Be they beautiful, glittering, chains of gold, they are chains still. And which of you is bound by anything stronger than a paper chain ?

Miles to go before I sleep and promises to keep. Tempus fugate. And so must I.

Thanks,

I missed your first warning.
Put Comp USA, NIKE, Kmart and MSFT on your list to buy. It is also a good time to buy those stocks with a PE above 60.

HighRise

PS: IWST2000x0.2

I tried to get to the URL you posted earlier entitled ( by you ) "More good news..." Anyway, the article had been removed. Would you kindly post for me the important specifics of that article/report? - c

I see great value in gold and silver and indeed, black gold. Buy it now, buy it in the ground where it is safe. Safe from chaos and flux. This is a vision I have with great clarity.

As this was my bowling night, I just finished reading all the posts and ran across your 17:50 about the technical thoughts your friend had given you.

As usual, all this seemed to go right over my head. Perhaps chas can decipher this for us as it seems he has that type of background. In fact, he has been in touch with Allegheny's president, George LaFontaine, who has sent him a packet of information which might contain some of the more technical stuff. I'm not sure. Maybe then chas can give us his ideas on their Vanguard properties in plain english.

welkommen mozel....your seat awaits.

'if i have seen farther than others, it is because i have
stood on the shoulders of giants' .......sir isaac newton

damn, what a view........

http://www.yamana.com/Q1-98-8.htm

Yes, some solid advice from one of like mind. Also, if you are into currency trading, check out the Russian ruble. In the next couple months it should become the new world currency, I think. Good political, social, and economic fundamentals, outstanding untapped resources. Much potential for growth - a definate BUY! - c

Good to see you post again.

Guess this is the end of the Drug Czar. Darn.

believe that we all must do what we know is right. To seek the truth, to act upon our convictions and to expect others to respect us as we do them.

arden--

well put from an inside perspective.....and it will pay off
handsomely...

mid-east violence is fixing to go off the scale...israel
is going to surprise everybody with their moves...
very good for gold and oil...very bad for sentient beings
around the globe.

For EB and Oris ..
Belgians are fairly heavy buyers of
RSA script. A press article printed
here quoted Belgian sources that
the Russian StockPile of Platinum
was depleted a while back. This
has been my info here as well. The
article was silent on Palladium.
However Palladium is MUCH less
relevant to RSA as it is mainly a
PLATINUM producer .. roughly 77-78
per cent of world supply. Anyone
who believes in Platinum should
hold amplats or implats.
You never hear about RSA political
instability from anybody in Platinum
because they know RSA has been a steady
reliable supplier since platinum began to
be mined here. Also the US produces only
5% of world supply .. not much mileage gained
by bad-mouthing RSA in US controlled press in
that department.
Not so Gold where US is shakey HIGH overall
cost HIGH debt producer. Must pray for
revolution ( or something ) in RSA to make
US mines make sense .. or ELSE banks will
cut off their loans

For EB and Oris ..
Belgians are fairly heavy buyers of
RSA script. A press article printed
here quoted Belgian sources that
the Russian StockPile of Platinum
was depleted a while back. This
has been my info here as well. The
article was silent on Palladium.
However Palladium is MUCH less
relevant to RSA as it is mainly a
PLATINUM producer .. roughly 77-78
per cent of world supply. Anyone
who believes in Platinum should
hold amplats or implats.
You never hear about RSA political
instability from anybody in Platinum
because they know RSA has been a steady
reliable supplier since platinum began to
be mined here. Also the US produces only
5% of world supply .. not much mileage gained
by bad-mouthing RSA in US controlled press in
that department.
Not so Gold where US is shakey HIGH overall
cost HIGH debt producer. Must pray for
revolution ( or something ) in RSA to make
US mines make sense .. or ELSE banks will
cut off their loans

I disagree with the premise that it is different this time. I do agree that the general public is not heavily invested in gold stocks at this time, but I don't think the Dow crash is as imminent as several people on this forum seem to think it is. If the break in the market follows past history, ( and if enough Dow Bulls believe in past history it probably will ) it wont crater until the Utilities have turned decisively downwards, gold has had a significant bull run, and gold and oil stocks have joined the party. By this time John Q public will be heavily involved in Gold Stocks. So I would not be at all surprised to see the 1998/9/? crash play out similiarly to 1987, with Gold Stocks cratering shortly after other stocks but with the price of gold hanging on for several months. In the meantime I will continue to trade the volatile Gold Stocks for profit.

You've been missed. Keep sending us those tidbits...they may lead us all one day to mozeland.

posted in honor of mozel-----

things taken,,

http://www.zolatimes.com/V2.9/amerika.html

Last fall I REALLY got the hots for some silver to use in mass quantities to ballast my safe deposit box ( Wow do you get some weird looks when you carry in a 35 pound bag. The bank v.p. will make you open it so she can stick her hand in to make sure its not a bomb! ) and wanted to pay a relatively low premium so I got casting grain. When I retire I can use it to cast trinkets and sell them for well above spot, without the hassle of weighing, mixing, graining, et cetera.

Kitco has got some durned compeditive prices, I'd presume based on some large quantity like 1000 ounces or 50 kg quantities. Tonight they're advertising a price 13 cents US over spot on the main bar listing page ( without specifying quantities ) and on the grains page 37 cents per pennyweight ( 1/20 ounce ) for one kilogram quantities of the .9999 fine variety.
http://www.kitco.com/gold.sellbar.html
http://www.kitco.com/product.grain.html

I have never bought from them due to the huge freight bills involved for such purchases shipped thousands of miles, but with my ( relatively close and with cheaper shipping ) seller last year that was the cheapest form of ready mixed sterling at the time to buy. When you consider how its fabricated you understand, no milling, casting, etc, they just drop the molten metal through a shot tower then weigh and bag it.

Good grief, good to hear from you. And the research goes on, and on. Thanks for the post. Be well.

I wonder if you could take some time to address
my question from earlier today -

Of the seven calls I pointed out to Cherriotomy,
how many did I make after the fact? Please
provide evidence for same.

Otherwise, John, I could say you had a criminal
record in the U.S., if we're just throwing out
accusations without any supportive data.

Doesn't the price of metals go up when US $ goes down ?
When metal prices go up, don't interest rates go up ?
Don't commodity prices go up with price of metals ?
Its good that I don't use fundementals, just technicals, in my trading

Got all your assets in gold and cash? Heading out to the Home Depot this evening for a generator, eh? Love to come visit you in my ox-drawn Chevy when you get set up. I'll bring some whale oil for your generator.
-EJ



Estragon: I can't go on like this.
Vladimir: That's what you think.
- Samuel Beckett, Waiting For Godot

down almost 6 1/2 % - this is getting uglier by the day, only a matter of time before it gets to the US. Boy do I feel good knowing the Coward Erect and the First Bunt Cake are in control with that Executive Order Pen.

I see no mention of what the dead Nikkei is doing.
Is it starting to stink and release toxic fumes
all over Asia, spilling beyond the Pacific Rim
to threaten every living human being
as well as jeopardize our Mars probe?
Is this the end? Can I have a snack before
deadtime?

Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
April 3, 1998

Sony's Chairman Warns of Impending Collapse of Japanese Economy

Norio Ohga, Chairman of Japan's Sony Corporation, warned today that Japan's
economy was close to collapse and that Japan's collapse could lead to a
worldwide recession. According to Ohga, the Japanese economy was facing
its most difficult time ever. He compared Japanese Prime Minister
Hashimoto to Herbert Hoover: "What President Hoover was saying then, there
are so many similarities with what Prime Minister Hashimoto has been saying
recently. Hoover triggered worldwide recession. I just hope remarks by
Prime Minister Hashimoto won't trigger worldwide recession". According to
Ohga, the central problem facing Japan is deflation, driven by a lack of
consumer spending in Japan. Ohga therefore called on the Japanese
government to stimulate the economy, increasing consumer spending and
stabilizing prices.

Ohga has merely stated the obvious. Japan has been stagnant throughout
most of the 1990s and its condition is worsening. The Bank of Japan's
"business condition diffusion index," which tracks business sentiment has
fallen to the worst level since 1994. This understates the problem. The
extended malaise of the Japanese economy is wreaking structural damage as
time goes on. Both Daiwa and Tokai banks announced cuts in lending to
large companies while it was announced that capital spending in general
would decline in 1998. As with the United States in the 1970s, the decline
in the availability of capital triggered by the banking crisis means an
increasingly aging and less efficient industrial plant. As this happens,
Japan's exports become less competitive, increasing pressure on the yen.
As the yen declines, the willingness of investors to invest in yen
denominated paper declines, increasing the capital crisis.

The obvious answer is to stimulate the economy, as Ohga suggested. But
Japan's financial condition is much worse than the U.S. condition in the
early 1980s. Stimulating consumption must come at the expense of the
savings rate. A high savings rate at low interest is now and has always
been the foundation of the Japanese banking system. The availability of
nearly free money to banks that are in dire trouble is the only thing that
permits them to continue functioning. Eliminate the constant infusion of
savings and the banking system would collapse and with it the inefficient,
linked companies who depend on cheap money to maintain their balance sheet.
Increasing domestic consumption is the long-run solution, but as the
Japanese bureaucrats understand very well, it is not clear how to get there
from here. Increased consumption would stimulate the economy, but only
after knocking the bottom out of the banking system. Ohga, who heads one
of Japan's more successful companies, is not completely sensitive to the
precarious condition of most other Japanese companies.

This means that Ohga's warning should be taken seriously while his solution
cannot be. Ohga's warning is an important turning point in the Japan
story, since it represents a dire prediction from a leader of the Japanese
business community, someone who cannot be dismissed as merely a
sensationalist or alarmist. If Ohga is worried, everyone should be. The
problem is that there does not appear to us to be any way out of Japan's
dilemma. This is not the first time Japan has faced this dilemma. During
the 1920s, a very similar banking crisis took place. The result was a
devastating recession and the emergence of political extremism.

Until this point, analysts have been focused on the question of whether or
not Japan can avoid economic disaster. It has been our position that
Japan's economic fate has been sealed ever since the Japanese government
decided to follow a strategy that refused to deal with the emerging banking
crisis--that is, since around 1992. Now, Sony's leader has come close to
the same conclusion, at least in the sense of facing the magnitude of the
crisis. From our point of view, the central question is no longer whether
the Japanese economy is facing calamity, but rather what the consequence of
that calamity is going to be. One aspect of this is its effect on the rest
of the world. We are not certain that Japan's decline will have an
enormous negative effect outside of Asia. The second aspect is its effect
on Japan itself. Since the end of World War II Japan has been a liberal
democracy, a system imposed by the United States. If Japan goes into a
depression, it will be a very different country than the prosperous and
cocky Japan of the 1980s. With that difference will come wrenching
political changes. We urge analysts to study the 1920s in order to get a
sense of the possible evolution of Japan, should Ohga be correct.

StradMaster: April issue of CoinAge lists MS-65 Morgans for $85-$190,000 depending on date. In an economic crisis they would be no more valuable than any other nice looking silver dollar, as pointed out by Tolerant1 and others. It'd be a great time to buy rare date high grade coins, though! Say mister, I'll give you $30 for that 1934-S Peace Dollar in MS-66! I like VF to AU grade peace dollars myself as well as Franklin halves. Both generally cost substantially less than their more desirable counterparts ( Morgans and Walkers ) . Ramapo 1-800-776-1234 sells 20 coin peace dollar rolls in what they call "very choice BU" ( actually VF-AU ) for about $170 and Franklin rolls in similar condition for $57. This works out to $11/oz for the dollars and about $8/oz for the halves. All the rolls I've bought from them contain only nice looking coins though I suspect some have been cleaned or dipped. Fast service and Sat. hours, too. As far as the survey goes, Shek, I agree with Quixotic 1. Nasty prolonged recession/depression with possibly some civil unrest and who knows what else thrown in for good measure. Call it a 3 with electrical power on and right off the charts if the grid goes down and stays down.