Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 00:00 - ID#373403)
Moral Hazards
As the insurers of all bank deposits and as a consequence all bank loans, shouldn't you and I, the American taxpayer, be outraged by these 125% home equity loans? We ought to have a say in these things if we are expected to bail out the banks.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 00:05 - ID#410114)
Moody's down grade
Moody'd down grade of Japan's gov't debt has implications for all countries debt.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 00:09 - ID#248180)
Oris- I just returned from the Old Country. Still very cold. Not like wonderful climat in the land of Oz, facing Great Southern Ocean. I thought I would butt-in and support your facts regarding Russian Blondes. Russian Blondinka's are the genuine 100% pure article. If one chooses a GOLDEN BLONDE or a PLATINUM BLONDE it does not make a difference as both are most PRECIOUS GENUINE creation of God.

But then again if one consumes sufficient quantities of STOL/Vodka and Pickles, then the other Blondes start to look equally as good, not so precious or rare one can select from strawberry blonds, dirty blonds ( the dirty blonde can be a task ) and so on.

Personally drunk or sober I prefer the dark eyed gypsy types~~~~ "OCHIN Chorniya Oh Preckrasnaya LA Da Da dee dee dah~~~~~ Ouuiigh!!! ZOLOTO & PLATINA!!!!!

To our USA friends "Blonde" in Russia does not imply dumb or thick female persons, as the stereo type Hollywood blond; but quite the contrary.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 00:09 - ID#286230)
Old Golden George:

"Likewise for EB and Selby -- our most dedicated and fanatical gold shorts whose hatred of the yellow rivals that of Andy Smith."

Now George after forecasting a rise in the price of gold for over 2 years and during a loss of over $115 it does your image no good to assume a 10 buck rise makes you a guru a sage or even permits dropping the gentlemanly facade and the uttering of insults. I had no idea that the prospect of someone not following your advice and thereby doubling their money would bother you so much. But rest assured I will remember it in the future.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 00:12 - ID#411259)
..... Snippy .....

Just wanted to see how this post from this morning reads with a couple of word changes, to which the response will probably be repetitive and unoriginal.

Date: Fri Apr 03 1998 18:32

farfel ( And finally, the ALMIGHTY DOW... ) ID#340302:

Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved ( guess I'm messing with the law here )

The failure of the GOLD to close above 310 today should be of significant concern to all GOLD investors.

Despite enormous strength in the SILVER market in the early morning...despite the never-ending spate of producer forward selling by many of the GOLD heavyweights....despite today's Kitco posts deemed by farfel propagandists to be mildly deflationary, thereby auguring lower interest rates....despite the flood of farfel analysts trotted out by the media ( notably Himself ) to announce new GOLD targets of $10,000 and higher by mid-year...despite the entire telethon approach of the GOLD 310 exponents...

...the close did not hold above 310.

When the GOLD bulls employ every strategy conceivable to ballyhoo GOLD and come up with a mere whimpering gain, then one must truly ponder whether the GOLD is now completely topped out, ready to confirm a bear market soon with a particularly dramatic tumble.

There is truly little doubt that after today's anemic performance, any left field event that develops on the domestic or global scene will probably impact the GOLD in a particularly negative way. GOLD liquidity inflows seem to be mated out and their cash margins dangerously low.


You Wrote:

RJ: When are we going to hit that $285 target you have been pushing for weeks? Your record is very good, but you got overconfident and arrogant.

Covered some of my gold shorts today. Beware there fella', forward sales are tempting at these levels. The first $15 dollars of the gold move was all short covering. This is not a strong rally. So I lost a bit on some gold shorts. It happens when you play. If you followed your own past advice, you own a lot of gold above $400. I would rather have a short at $303 than holding over $400 gold for all those years.

I must admit I was a bit surprised by your post since you have shouted from the rooftops that the Dow was over at 6000, and 7000, and 8000, and that gold has hit a bottom at 380, and 350, and 325, and 300. You live in a glass house George, don't throw stones. I stand by my posts, and always with the same name. Some here find it easier, when consistently proven wrong, to change their handle and continue on as if they had any credibility.

It was a cheap shot from the most consistent staggeringly wrong guy on this forum: GSC


(Sat Apr 04 1998 00:13 - ID#248180)
@Russkie "Blondinka's" - ORIS & J. Disney
My title was cut off. Sorry for double post. Toast! Na Zdarovia!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 00:25 - ID#248180)
ANOTHER- I have been away and have in in the last few hours reviewed your posts. Welcome back and thank you. In light of all the political and macro economic changes ( oil/gold/currency/Year2K/Asia/M/East/ ) facing this planet. I have chosen to buy land on a Mediterranean Island and I have purchased my first camel. The sale of the jet and Mercedes is on hold. Would like to meet you in the Mediterranean for a coffee.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 00:31 - ID#373403)
What if Japan got fed up with U.S. megaphone diplomacy and said "ick, we don't want these U.S. Treasuries as reserves anymore"

What if the Federal Reserve printed up $1 trillion in new money in the past three years and just traded it for Japans' Treasuries"

What if Japan looked down at this money which was fresher than sushi and said "ick ick, we don't want this either. Lets buy gold for our reserves"

What if gold just went up and up and up.........

Goodnight all.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 00:32 - ID#286230)
Old Coled Gold. Forgot--I have never shorted gold as you suggest--been without but never sold short.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 00:42 - ID#224149)
They have Madonna Singing I love me forever 
Junior ---I have purchased my first camel New York will be trading Camel Futures Next Month but beware of the acid rain ---It hurts their nostrils ---Away to buy Platinum for horse like animals-----SEE YOU MONDAY PROMISE

(Sat Apr 04 1998 00:44 - ID#411259)
.....Synchronicity .....

Selby -

Seemed we took the same offense of the same post by the same guy who keeps saying the same thing about gold being the same thing as a sure thing.

Also, the fellow who fell far railed against "ideological shorts", then went on at some length about how one should support gold and only speak optimistically. He screamed in capital letters that he is a GOLD BULL and only looks one direction. How is it, when any metal spends 80% of its time moving sideways or down, that so many here can only see one direction? Markets move both ways, why would one look at only a small part of a market?

The reason for my shenanigans with the farfel post, was to show that the vocal gold crowd at Kitco sounds EXACTLY like the "talking Heads on CNBC" ( fingers marking air ) , separated only by a couple substitutions in words. When he reads that post he will probably try to respond by doing the same with my posts. Again, no original thinking there. It'll be fun to see him try. He 's kind of like flat beer; It get's you drunk, but it just ain't no fun drinkin'



(Sat Apr 04 1998 00:48 - ID#238422)
Junior/Oh, man!
Junior, I still remember all this stuff very well,
particularly correlation between consumed bottles of
"blondinka" and blondes. Do you know the other meaning
of "blondinka" in Russian? - it's slang word for vodka,
although not very common. And "Brunetka" means wine ( vino )
In extreme case, vino is "bormotuykha", if you know.
Can you possibly imagine how to translate this word in
English? I can not!

Anyway, I figured you had some fun and I'm happy for you.
I like brunetok also, they are pretty sharp when natural.
Sometimes, I feel I really want to use time machine and
come back to grab a couple of weeks of real life, not these
"fat-free ham" lifestyle, which is great but kind of boring.
But, you know, only for a couple of weeks...

Junior, I do miss something...

(Sat Apr 04 1998 00:56 - ID#286230)
The object changes but the viewer is constant
RJ: Not really offended but surprised at both the emotion and the continued posting of errors. I have never shorted gold ( or anything else ) and I don't hate it, and I made money on it today. About C$1.2 on Barrick and about 12% on a junior I have been holding almost as long as Old Cold George has been seeing gold going up. Anyway Monday is another day.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 01:13 - ID#26669)
Oris, Oh, you mean RUSSIAN blonde, not AMERICAN blonde!
Most American blondes are merely gold or platinum plated, not the pure through and through of Russian blondes. Although the stigma of blondness is fading here as some of the dingbats are choosing to dye their hair purple, orange or blue instead.

I wonder if there's any cultural correllation between US liking for the 14k gold and other countries for 22k. The one is hard and brassy the other soft warm and ruddy.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 01:14 - ID#153102)
Statuatory History of Deep Do Do; Eagles; How to pay with them
The statement that "federal reserve notes are dollars - this was so ruled in U.S. v. Rifen" - may not be entirely accurate.

I include here some items of interest.

12 USC 411 specifically states in pertinent part, the following:
"....The said notes SHALL BE OBLIGATIONS OF THE UNITED STATES and shall be receivable by all national and member banks and Federal reserve banks
and for all taxes, customs, and other public dues. They shall be redeemed
in lawful money on demand at the Treasury Department of the United States, in the city of Washington, District of Columbia, or at any Federal reserve bank." ( Dec. 23, 1913, ch 6, sec. 16, paragraph 1. 39 Stat. 265; Jan. 30, 1934, ch 6, sec. 2 ( b ) ( 1 ) , 48 Stat. 337. )

In the interpretive notes and decisions: "Federal reserve notes are
legal tender in absence of objection thereto." MacLeod v. Hoover, 159 La 244, 105 So. 305 ( 1925 ) .

As can be seen from the above, Congress new that Federal reserve notes
weren't "Dollars" -- they were specifically called OBLIGATIONS of the
United States, which are now known as "Special Drawing Rights" or SDR's
pursuant to the amended Bretton Woods Act under Public Law 94-564, many
parts of which were carried out in absolute secrecy. Everyone needs to
read the Legislative History of this Act, Senate Report 94-1148, which was
in conjunction with HR 13955, August 10, 1976.

However, even before this occurred, a series of other Acts come into play:

1. The United States officially ABANDONED the domestic gold standard in
1933-1934 pursuant to the declared Emergency Banking Relief Act of
March 9, 1933 ( 48 Stat. 1 ) .

2. Via Public Law 89-3 on March 3, 1965, the gold certificate reserve
against Federal Reserve deposits was ELIMINATED entirely.

3. The so-called Coinage Act of 1965 discontinued silver coinage ( 79
Stat. 254 ) . After a one-year grace period, redemption of silver certificates
in silver was discontinued as of June 24, 1968 pursuant to the Act of June
24, 1967 ( 81 Stat. 77 ) .

4. Public Law 90-269 of March 18, 1968 ( 82 Stat. 50 ) REMOVED entirely
the gold reserve requirement against Federal Reserve notes in circulation
-- in order to make available additional amounts of gold for INTERNATIONAL
monetary transactions.

5. Via Public Law 92-268 ( 86 Stat. 116 ) on March 31, 1972 - the Par Value
Modification Act - Congress established the new par value for the dollar
equal to one thirty-eighth of a fine troy ounce of gold.

6. On September 21, 1973, the Par Value Modification Act was AMENDED by
Public Law 93-110 ( 87 Stat. 353 ) , which changed the par value of the dollar
to equal "0.828948 SPECIAL DRAWING RIGHT or, the equivalent in terms of gold, of forty-two and two-ninths dollars per fine troy ounce of gold".
At this time the definition of the "dollar" in terms of gold was SOLELY
FOR THE PURPOSE of meeting U.S. obligations in the IMF. The ONLY DOMESTIC
PURPOSE for which the legal definition of the dollar in terms of gold
continued to be relevant, was the issuance of gold certificates to
Federal Reserve Banks pursuant to section 2 ( a ) of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 ( 31 USC 5117 ) .

7. The par value of the dollar, which was established under Public Law
92-268 ( 86 Stat. 116 ) - The Par Value Modification Act - was repealed
by Public Law 94-564, upon the entry into force of the amendments to the Articles of Agreement of the IMF. Under these amended IMF Articles,
which became effective April 1, 1978, the United States NO LONGER had a legal obligation to establish and maintain a par value for the dollar.
And of course, by 1977, the entire monetary system, that is to say,
every financial institution in the United States of America, including local
banks and credit unions, were place under the direction and control of
the alien, corporate "Governor" of the IMF and World Bank via Public Law

The essence of what has just been described is a major "coup de tat"
over finance, in which the obligations of the United States through Federal
Reserve notes were completely DISHONORED, DISAVOWED and REPUDIATED, and
the loss passed off to the Citizens of this Nation. This economic overthrow
effectively annihilated the sovereignty of the United States Government
to the objectives of the International Organizations, corporations and
associations. The greenback Federal Reserve Notes people earn and spend are
the notes of a foreign government and have nothing to do with the United
States of America. The USA is the alter-ego of the IMF and World Bank under the United Nations, and is officially recognized as a 19.96% voting share stockholder in "The Fund" and "The Bank" ( the IMF and World Bank ) .

In a letter dated February 16, 1977 from the Department of the
Treasury, Office of the General Counsel, to wit:

"This is to respond to your letter of November 23, 1976 in which you
request a definition for the dollar as distinguished from a Federal
Reserve note.

FEDERAL RESERVE NOTES ARE NOT DOLLARS. Those notes are denominated in
dollars, which are the unit of account of United States money. The
Coinage Act of 1792 established the dollar as the basic unit of account of
United States currency, by providing that "The money of account of the United States shall be EXPRESSED in dollars or units, dimes or tenths, cents, or hundredths...." 31 USC 371.

The fact that Federal Reserve notes may not be converted into gold or
silver does not render them worthless. Mr. Bernard of the Federal
Reserve Board is quite correct in stating that the value of the dollar is its purchasing power. Professor Samuleson, in his text Economics, notes
that the dollar, as our medium of exchange, is wanted not for its own sake,
but for the things it will buy.

I trust this information responds to your inquiry.

Sincerely yours,

Russell L. Munk,
Assistant General Counsel."

NOW FOR SOME GOOD NEWS: Pursuant to Public Law 99-61 and Public Law
99-185, both enacted during 1985 through the efforts of the Honorable Phillip Crane of Illinois, you have American Eagle Gold Coins and American Eagle Silver Coins, which pursuant to 31 USC 5112 are denominated in dollars gold and silver. There is a "material difference" in the value between the paper SDR ( Federal Reserve Note ) and the intrinsics under both of these public Laws. The U.S. Mint supplies these coins through a nationwide distributor network to coin dealers. In the case of Silver Dollars, the mint charges $1.25 over the spot price of raw silver bullion - which are not dollars ( which by the way is fixed in London -- and not by Congress pursuant to its DUTY under Article I, Section 8, Clause 5 ) . To calculate the base cost to the dealer, take the afternoon fix for the spot price ( which is the selling site rate ) -- today, silver bullion is in the vicinity of 6.34 per ounce - add to this 1.25 and you have 7.59. The coin dealer will charge over this amount a small premium in order to keep his doors open. Today if you pay 8.00 Federal Reserve notes for one silver dollar - that would be about right, and some discount for quantity. This amount then represents the "buying site rate" pursuant to 31 USC 5112 ( e ) ( f ) ( g ) ( h ) and the Uniform Commercial Code at Article 3-107. You will find "tender" under the UCC at 3-604. If you want to PAY for something, you must do it with REAL money at the "buying site rate" of exchange on the day of tender.

Want to pay a loan contract off with gold or silver ? Go get the real money first, tender it at the exchange rate pursuant to 31 USC 5112, and when they refuse the tender, sue them. They have just breached their contract with you. You might wish to read 74 Am Jur 2d, "TENDER".

John Disney__A
(Sat Apr 04 1998 01:21 - ID#24135)
Making Use of What we have.
To Anyone
Klepto-rat - the Moniker thief - claims that he is
right all the time .. OK that interesting .. as you
know, I do not believe a word of it and consider him
to be a half- crazed retard. He spends his time
resenting and attacking other people who actually try
to contribute to the site and assist others - like
brother Vronsky.
But lets me FAIR... does anyone on this site feel that
they ever made any money as a result of Klepto's
postings.?? If so .. please say so.
If not .. he could still be of some use to us ..
perform menial tasks .... like maybe wash our cars ..
polish our boots .. mend our socks ... He must be good
for something.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 01:22 - ID#287277)
Tolerant1--The Dinar post--BRABO! {:-)
Re: "American oil interests--Farfel"
One might suggest that American Corporate Oil Giants are no longer American,. but GLOBAL and have about as much allegiance to the US as Elf or Total. [And a good bit of the Russian oil resides in stan provinces, which are Muslim.

FTs 10 Week Special Report Series on Mastering Global Business underlines the Global Citizen posture of ALL corporate entities; one might argue that the EXISTENCE of an organization like WEF, and their very well-attended annual dos also underscores the Corporate Global Citizen and that Citizens input into Global Governance--about which they are VERY serious indeed.

Please Note--1/3 of the UN is Muslim ( this from a statement during debate on adding two Muslim holidays to UN calendar ) + China = ? Tripolor Currency and Global Master of the Mint?

As you know, Ive worked diligently on this thread and--one hopes--objectively: walking the circle one finds incredible obstacles have been surmounted. From the 16 trillion TL that Turkish workers in Germany sent back to the People of the Ribat in Istanbul, to the creation of a far-flung Islamic banking system--much of which was in place when the Dinar was officially unveiled at the Blue Mosque in 1992, to the moral bulwark which underpins the entire enterprise and, all of this accomplished while the rest of the world slept. Except, as I am now learning, the central banks--who have been very aware, and very concerned. Thank you very much Tolerant1; you are so very often thoughtful, kind and generous with your time and your talents.
It is very much appreciated. for the last three months of 1978 and the first quarter of 1979. Can anyone direct me to a source on-line? Thanks.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 01:27 - ID#316200)
RJ, Selby: Shorting Gold
RJ wrote: "Also, the fellow who fell far railed against "ideological shorts", then went on at some length about how one should support gold and only speak optimistically. He screamed in capital letters that he is a GOLD BULL and only looks one direction. How is it, when any metal spends 80% of its time moving sideways or down, that so many here can only see one direction? Markets move both ways, why would one look at only a small part of a market?"

Comment: A recent but presently departed poster bought several

hundred gold coins and hedged with gold puts. This is an

accepted and viable technique, and I employed it myself

with some moderate but varying degrees of success during

the bear market. This is the design intent of hedging, and I

take no exception whatsoever to this technique.

The subject of shorting metals was discussed by DA on this forum.

His rationale to avoid shorting, as I recall, had a basis in

mathematics relating to unlimited liability on naked shorts,

and a corresponding unlimited upside on longs, with an approximate

$300 downside. I concur. I value all posts and inputs.

I respectfully submit that I regret to see any animosity on this

forum, as I find it to be a waste of very valuable talent.

Your thoughtfull comments are always appreciated, and rest

assured that I am aware that every development is not fundamentally

positive for the metals. That said, I do believe the highs

are behind us, and also ahead!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 01:30 - ID#238422)
223(Yes,yes,yes...Russian Blonde)
Your comparison between 14K gold and 22K gold
is absolutely perfect and even artistic. I'm afraid
that a lot of soul and pure fun was lost when 14K's
were invented - it's a great man's tragedy...

(Sat Apr 04 1998 01:35 - ID#286230)
LazloT: I have no philosophical problem with shorting. It is something I don't do I think because it gets more complicated than I want to bother with.

John Disney__A
(Sat Apr 04 1998 01:35 - ID#24135)
For the Russian Guys
Junior .. I like your style.. The order is for a RUSSIAN

Brother Oris .. I bet you DO miss something.. Things aren't
what they once were. Can you imagine Shostakovitch eating fat
free ham?? Or Sholohkov drinking a Diet Coke???

(Sat Apr 04 1998 01:36 - ID#252127)
Three $20 updays in the next week and I become a gold bull extrodinare

Now; just a simple bull, who sees nothing but the same old manipulative efforts to keep the yeller down.
Golden Cheesehead, if you keep fighting with Vironsky and Co., the Lihir ADR ( lihry ) will likely go to $60 bucks if gold hits $350.
But to Golden-Eagle ( sans the -en ) much credit is due. Without costs and other negatives S.A. is ok, especially if a good stable gold price of $500, plus assured internal stability were the case.

John Disney__A
(Sat Apr 04 1998 01:40 - ID#24135)
The KGB Martini Method ..
Brother Oris
OF forecasting the weekly gold price is amazing.. I could
do it better IF I could get the right pickles. Im
shooting HIGH and to the right with the RSA pickles.
You beat me every time .. you got an unfair advantage
with those pickles.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 01:45 - ID#340302)
@RJ...It's good to see you are becoming more of a gold bull...
...welcome aboard the gold bull train.


(Sat Apr 04 1998 01:54 - ID#238422)
John Disney \Official statement from the Kremlin
Our brother John,

It is absolutely clear to all brothers and sisters
that our famous brother citizen Dmitri Shostakovich
did not eat free fat ham even once in his life. In regard to
our great writer comrade Mikhail Sholokhov, we must assure
you that he did not drink diet coke in principle. As one
of our brothers in medical department said - great people
never use substitutes...

Brother Oris is known to eat free fat ham once and then
stopped because of health considerations on recommendations
of our doctors, and diet coke was excluded from the menu
for political reasons - brother Oris must drink vodka and
coca cola classic if he wants to be politically correct -
and we know he wants.

Best regards and wishes,
Brothers ( and blonde sisters ) from the KremlinCo.


(Sat Apr 04 1998 01:57 - ID#248180)
@Zolota ei Platina
Oris- Russia is now changed forever. My first "bizziness trip' was in 1991 and I had only some what experienced a "Soviet" Russia in tatters. I will never know what it was like under the "idealism" of Soviets. That is all politics and economics. The Russian man/women is still the heart and soul of the country. Yes it is a very special feeling to get in touch with ones roots so too speak. I enjoy doing "buzziness" in Russia and Ukraine. I can understand your fond memories and the romance of the rich culture and life that is Russian. I am a westerner heart and soul, yet I fell in love with the people and rich culture.

Oris- your camel? Is she blondinka? Could not comment on Brunetika, this term was not introduced to me.

J.Disney- When ordering Blondinka, specify that only "grain vodka", and "Pillmennei" from the Urals and pickles from Rustov na Don, must be included with package. You will live forever with that menu.

Russian Platinum: Will have fantastic news in about 6 weeks. Things are looking real bright.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 02:08 - ID#340302)
@MYRMIDON...Yes, we sent to dinner at Arnold's joint... Santa Monica, Schwarzenegger has a nice little place with really great wife's suggestion.

With respect to my essay, "TECHNOLOGY: SAVIOR OR DESTROYER OF 21ST CENTURY AMERICA" and the central thesis: 5% of the population control 90% of the assets:

Yes, it is true that, within each corporation there seems to be broader public ownership of those corps. However, keep in mind the following facts: almost half of Americans still do not participate in stock purchases ( and never will ) . They are ideologically uninterested or don't care. Not even 401K plans can entice ( or coerce ) these Americans to play the game. Moreover, the average American can only buy a couple of hundred shares in a few companies at most. In aggregate, they may appear to control the wealth, yet on an individual basis this is far from true.

At the same time, also remember that there has never been such a broad dissemination of ownership by the wealthy, i.e, more stakes in more companies than ever before.

I cited the Bronfman family earlier as an example: they hold either controlling or minority stakes in a vast number of companies ( as many as 100 corporations ) , forming a pyramid shape. At the top, the holding company exercising controlling power over the entire pyramid. Add up all the the value of all the stakes and that represents a hefty piece of the wealth pie. Again, that's just one family: maybe five or six individuals. Then there are others: DuPonts, Rockefellers, Kennedys, etc. with similar pyramid structures to their respective empires. They may only own 8% of Company A....but unlike most Americans they have similar or much greater stakes in a vast number of such companies. Add up all the respective stakes and that represents a hefty slice of the entire wealth pie.

I agree with you that there is now greater diffusion of ownership in each individual company with greater public participation thus altering the ratio ( IMHO around 10-15% of the population now control 90% of the wealth ) . This represents a notable imbalance than previously seen in this country's history.

Hence, in order for things to rebalance, unfortunately for the average investor, the walls may come crumbling down.


(Sat Apr 04 1998 02:12 - ID#248180)
One good Day for PM's & we celebrate!!!
Must be gone for about 6 hours. Dinner party awaits - abundance of Barossa Valley, South Australia Shiraz ( maybe Grange ) , Racks of prime suckle Lamb, etc. Tough life but someone has to keep the faith hold the fort.
Oris I promise prior to dinner it will be StoL/Vodka and Pickles cut quartered down the length of pickle ( never in round chips as one would place in a "Big Mac" Yuck ) ~~~ "Bon Appettite" ( spellling )

(Sat Apr 04 1998 02:14 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother, I don't want to play unfair game,
I do understand your problem with pickles.
Next time I'll use taboulli and absolute,
you should be able to get similar stuff...
Will post next forecast for a week this
Sunday or Monday next week. Let's see if
it works third time...

But two weeks in a row with an accuracy of
10 cents per ounce - do you think I was
just lucky or I'm another another? Or the
other another? Or may be, just may be?

I just love mysteries and good movies.

Talk to you soon, my brother.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 02:18 - ID#238422)
Junior, you know the drill very well.
My respect for you, droog.

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Sat Apr 04 1998 02:22 - ID#25867)

Hepcat: I already replied to your customer suggestions. Time to cool down the rhetoric. Calling another contributor stupid is stupid, and increases the likelihood of getting tossed. Some teeth have been added that you should know about - theres a one week delay from the time you register until you can post.

SDR: If you had many metric tons of gold to sell ( or buy ) would you do your marketing in the classifieds? Thanks for thinking of us just the same.

Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug: Take as much thunder as you desire. I would be difficult to make the time to involve myself in organizing such an event.

Poorboys: 30,000 mounties were minted. There are roughly 9,000 still being stored at the Mint. Once those are gone supply will have to come from the secondary market which will dictate price. We are charging the greater of $325 or ML+5 ( $5.00 premium over the maple ) . Well buy them back at the greater of $310 or spot gold +5. The premium will increase as supplies decline.

Heres why I think theyre an excellent alternative to Maples or Eagles:

1. ) Until Jan 1, 2000 they will never be worth less than $310.00

2. ) They are scarce, much rarer than Eagles and Maples and may always carry an additional premium for that reason. The 30,000 minted are dated 1997.

3. ) If gold is less than $310 on Jan 1, 2000, they will become even scarcer as people take them out of circulation for their redemption value.

4. ) They can always be easily swapped for Maples & Eagles, but not vice versa

5. ) Each coin comes individually sealed for scratch resistance and freshness.

6. ) They cost only a few dollars more than Maples and Eagles.

7. ) Sales, at least OUR sales, help support this site.

8. ) They have ten sides. Thats ten more than both Eagles and Maples put together.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 02:24 - ID#316200)
farfel, your essay
With respect to my essay, "TECHNOLOGY: SAVIOR OR DESTROYER OF 21ST

CENTURY AMERICA" and the central thesis: 5% of the population control 90% of

the assets:

You have hit the nail on the head. It is somewhat normal for this inverted ( concentration of economic wealth ) pyramid to occur over time in any economy. Recently, even in developing countries, this has become more prevalent than any time in history. I am in no way a socialist, but I truly believe this is an untenable situation, and is a crucial and central issue of our times.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 02:28 - ID#340302)
@BERNATZ...why are you so angry at everyone?
I know you told me "you never short gold" and since you claim you are making much money, I can only presume you are doing so as a bull in the equities or bonds markets.

Given these facts...then why are you so upset with the poor beleaguered gold bulls, given that most have suffered financially during this lengthy gold bear? Why don't you leave them alone?

Are you simply afraid that the operative rationale of gold bulls is beginning to "infect" the equities markets, thereby threatening your chances of continuing to make significant earnings?

Are gold bulls the enemy that must be obliterated? The crowd yelling that "the Emperor Wears No Clothes?"

Don't you think you would feel happier posting on one of the YAHOO chat forums with all the other equities bull crowd?

For such a young guy ( as you claim to be ) , I have never witnessed such venom and bitterness.

You remind me of Hitler, cursing at the Jews, damning them for all the ills of Germany after WWI...except instead of aiming your ire at Jews, you aim it at goldbugs as though somehow they are denying your supremacy, verity, and ideology.


(Sat Apr 04 1998 02:34 - ID#238422)
Brunetka - this word is Russian but has French roots.
It means woman with a very dark hear, nearly black hair.
I used to have a girlfriend in Russia for some time
who was brunetka with BLUE eyes - can you imagine?

Shatenka - woman with a brown hair, light or even
reddish brown. Right now she is shatenka.

It's always nice to talk to a person like yourself,
who understands...

(Sat Apr 04 1998 02:34 - ID#340302)
@LAZLO T...thanks...I find your posts to be equally compelling..
...I especially like your corollary slogan, "I DON"T CARE HOW HIGH IT IS...I'M NOT SELLING ANY!"


(Sat Apr 04 1998 03:10 - ID#330175)
@ Cape Insomnia..............................*Go Gold*
If I can't sleep I'd might as well blab---damn waves are so LOUD I can't get no sleep~~~~

(Sat Apr 04 1998 03:16 - ID#20135)

Gold 65,000
Silver 17,000
H.G. Copper 10,000

warehouse stocks:
GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

571,508 0 0 0 0 571,508
148,278 0 0 0 0 148,278
719,786 0 0 0 0 719,786


-1,264,114 14,932 33,850,340
1,862,788 -14,932 53,928,659
598,674 0 87,778,999

Allen, I really enjoyed your post on comex supplies. Please note that gold was up $5.90 today. It rose to 307.70 "SPOT". Well, as we can see 6.5 million paper gold ounces traded AND NOT one single ounce of actual gold bullion changed status.

Now I don't claim to be an expert on comex and LBME, but it looks more and more like this comex is a PAPER game. I think that your assumption that they must carry some percentage of actual bullion to be allowed to trade a certain level of paper gold is correct. The bullion they have is more for show and not delivery. When folks like Tlyer Rose and Questor and Warren actually take delivery, they are thrown off their game as you point out.

I just love it, we get all excited about this $5.90 rise in Spot to $307.70 and NOT one ounce of the actual bullion in their stocks changed status. The number of contracts that were written did increase from 30,000 to 60,000 today. So spot price of gold bullion looks to be a paper contract concoction to me.

The price of deliveries at the time of deliveries may well be the actual spot price of bullion ( gold, silver or otherwise - maybe even oil ) .

The spot prices are for mass consumption. Bullion is actually being priced somewhere else.

We live is a spin doublespeak world, so before gold bugs can find their way we may have to demonstrate in the light of day what the actual prices of commodities are - including or possibly starting with precious metals.

I am fairly certain that the exact same paper contract game is going on in the other commodities. Paper for paper. CRB stays low. Inflation disappears forever. And the average citizen never directly sees the relationship between the supplies, demand and the price on the actual market. Maybe I am moving the circle too wide??

Anyway, it is certain that a very complicated game is occurring in the precious metals market. My advice is we can not just BUY MORE, but that we MUST


I suggest:

I don't care .... I just bought more and I'm going to take delivery!!!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 03:22 - ID#20135)
FutureSource is a great site. Thought it would be good to show who has what...
COMEX Gold Warehouse Stocks

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
177,616 0 0 0 0 177,616
12,983 0 0 0 0 12,983
190,599 0 0 0 0 190,599
186,134 0 0 0 0 186,134
22,889 0 0 0 0 22,889
209,023 0 0 0 0 209,023
207,758 0 0 0 0 207,758
112,406 0 0 0 0 112,406
320,164 0 0 0 0 320,164
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
571,508 0 0 0 0 571,508
148,278 0 0 0 0 148,278
719,786 0 0 0 0 719,786

( c ) Copyright 1998 FWN

Again as Allen mentioned the Swiss and others walk again from this game because they were playing with nonexistent bullion stocks.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 03:24 - ID#20135)
I'm done. Goodnight...
We will not be out of the woods until we move form a paper gold spot price to ACTUAL price for bullion delivered.


(Sat Apr 04 1998 03:24 - ID#330175)
GREAT POST!!---the name should be OLD FOOL

(Sat Apr 04 1998 03:32 - ID#198170)
Banking Crisis Gets Bizarre
Here we have a Brazilian branch of a Japanese bank failing and bailed out by an Italian bank of all things. The Japanese definitely have there problems.

SAO PAULO ( Nikkei ) -Banco America do Sul SA, in which Fuji Bank ( 8317 ) is the principal shareholder, will move under the umbrella of an Italian bank operating in Brazil, Banco Sudameris Brasil SA.

Fuji Bank received a request to shoulder the full amount of a capital increase for the ailing financial institution, which is struggling under an excessive bad debt burden, but was unable to comply due to the poor business conditions in Japan.

Banco America do Sul is to allocate shares to Banco Sudameris Brasil, which will acquire at least a 51% stake in the bank.

Fuji Bank will maintain its current 22% equity stake.

Higher interest rates following the financial crisis in Asia and the poor business environment in Brazil due to tight fiscal measures have increased the amount of bad debt held by Banco America do Sul. That, together with increased fund procurement costs, pushed the institution toward collapse.

Although bad debts at Brazilian banks are increasing due to the economic crisis in Asia, this is the first time the bad debt has caused a bank to fail. Banco America do Sul's bad debt is projected at about 300 million real.

( The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Saturday morning edition )

(Sat Apr 04 1998 03:34 - ID#330175)
Great post!!---the 'glass house' remark was very appropriate,eh!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 03:45 - ID#266105)

Periscope up!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 03:55 - ID#330175)
I've got ya in my sights---duck!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 03:56 - ID#330175)
Poorboys.........................and Pork Bellies

(Sat Apr 04 1998 04:28 - ID#255151)
Late Night At The Kitco Bar&Grill

Good morning Ted and other Kitco patrons.
Nice to have a place that never closes, eh?
Actually gonna work some day shifts next
week. Don't know if I can handle a day job!
I'm near the end of a long stretch here
working 8 out of 9 days. Two more to go then
it's Mac Gold lager time. Still looking for
them Acapulco Gold coins.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 04:44 - ID#266105)
@ted, with feelin'

(Sat Apr 04 1998 04:46 - ID#255151)
Gold Coins

The St. Gaudens Gold coin has been called the most beautiful Gold coin ever minted. Here are some pictures. and

(Sat Apr 04 1998 04:56 - ID#255151)
Get FDR!

455,000 Double Eagles were minted in 1933, but were melted down in 1934. The more I learn about FDR, the less I like him.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 04:56 - ID#228283)
@ 2BRO...
You forgot to take the feathers off that parrot before ya grill 'em !

@Auric...Yup those St.G's are almost as pretty as my bride.

@Ted...Here's a gulp of Beck's dark to ya for stayin inside on a chilly nite. Gulp..ahhhh.

@Bart ... GO MOUNTIES!!!! go Cubs!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 05:04 - ID#266105)

(Sat Apr 04 1998 05:05 - ID#255151)

G'day Ersel, I'm thinking I should complete my planned purchases of the physicals soon. Gonna get a bag of '65-'69 half dollars. Also gonna get a stash of cash and put it in a safe place. If no problems develop, it will all still be available and usable. A sealed PVC pipe makes for a nice airtight safe, eh!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 05:13 - ID#255151)

What a beautiful Golden Retriever! I still miss my Golden, Lester. More beautiful than any Gold coin. Thanks for a wonderful memory.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 05:18 - ID#228283)
@ 2BRO.....Auric....

2BRO,you old dog,you! Only with a baked potato and a tossed salad with a delicate vinegarette dressing!...and a LOT of Beck's dark!

Aurical...remember to bury the pvc/au/ag DEEP,then tamp a 1 foot layer of dirt over that, then a semi rusty coffee can over that ,followed by the remainder of the dirt, tamped and watered. This should fool the people w/metal detectors!! FWIW.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 05:20 - ID#266105)

Not sure what she is, sprung her out of the pound
some years ago, now she's half mountain goat chasing
these kids around the steep shorecliffs. Anything less
vertical than tree...

(Sat Apr 04 1998 05:24 - ID#284255)
ANOTHER's transcripts updated

Interesting comments from AVID:
Re calls/puts and hedging .
And their effects on the market.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 05:34 - ID#228283)
@ Sharefin...

what was the date of that AVID post?

(Sat Apr 04 1998 05:40 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter
It is from the most recent period.
Maybe their chat has rolled over ( approx 3.00 )
In that case go back to the previous chat.

Espin charts for a global view.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 05:59 - ID#26793)
Thanks for your ongoing Comex warehouse updates. I own shares of CEF. They take delivery and provide their own storage in Canada. I do not know who they obtain the metal from but they provide independent audit reports regularly. I have spoken with the fund and am told that an officer of the fund accompanies the independent auditor and actually inspects the metal. Additionally, it is insured by Lloyds.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 06:11 - ID#228283)
@ Sharefin...

Thank you for that info, it helped clarify an awful lot ! I agree that Uncle Sam will do any thing to avoid a "crash. Perhaps that is why M1,2,3 are rising so rapidly...pre-emptive strike? Right after the -500 point 1987 drop , Greenspan said," The Federal Reserve WILL provide any liquidity when needed. " That, when some of the NYSE specialists were about to go bankrupt from taking in all of that stock.

Thanks again and goodnight from the chilly Midwest.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 06:52 - ID#255190)
A true militant! Very possibly the COMEX folks have 'ridden the wave' so to speak re: making dough from all the exchanging of paper. Since they make their money from other peoples' trading.

Contracts jumped from 30 to 60 thousand in one day? WOW! Must be them shorts, huh? ;-v

The problem is very similar to fractional reserves in banks. If any one of size EVER gets the idea that they should take delivery, then ouch! The doors will be jammed. Sounds like Buffett thought that was OK. Maybe he'll find out its not so after all.

At some point someone will figure out, in the broader market, that physical is worth more than paper, rather than physical being nailed down by paper. I think, possibly, Warren has found that the price of physical is 20% annually above spot! That is what he is being paid to hold off on demand of delivery.

One niggling detail that does not make sense to me is WHO is paying Warren to defer delivery. If contracts are more numerous than physical there can not be a certificate attached to particular trades, and therefore no specific seller is liable. Who is the party paying US$ 12 MILLION PER MONTH, every month, to not defer taking delivery

Such a small detail.

And with that I leave you 'for a time'. BBL

(Sat Apr 04 1998 07:37 - ID#286199)
Hong Kong gold up
4/3/98 -- 10:14 PM

Hong Kong-Gold

HONG KONG ( AP ) - Gold in Hong Kong opened at $308.25 an ounce on Saturday, up $4.00 from Friday's close at $304.25 an ounce.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 07:46 - ID#426220)

Speed: What is the URL for HK Gold?

(Sat Apr 04 1998 07:46 - ID#426220)

Speed: What is the URL for HG Gold?

(Sat Apr 04 1998 07:47 - ID#26793)
Japanese bank bonds taking on the characteristics of high yield (junk) bonds.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 07:47 - ID#341189)
Donald, re XAU and Spot
Here's a little project. I've always taken the leverage in shares to be about 3:1. This obviously can't be correct for all values of gold because production costs of mines are overwhelmed quickly at relatively low gold prices while at astrononmical gold prices ( should they ever be seen ) , marginal gold price increases and decreases would drop directly to the bottom line and the change in share price would be the price earnings multiple afforded the stock times the marginal change in gold price. So, here's the project. Suppose we studied the weekly or monthly historical gold price CHANGE relative to the XAU CHANGE. If the 3:1 rule of thumb is correct, then these changes should have averaged 3:1 historically. Have they? Second, during periods where the XAU has run up or down slower or faster than 3:1 ( or the historically correct ratio ) has this really signaled a change in trend for gold as the old rule that shares lead the spot would imply? Third, has the ratio of change ( leverage ) changed historically when gold has been high vs. low? I would be happy to help with this little project if I had the weekly or monthly XAU going back to it's beginning? ( When was that? ) Do you know where it is available? ( I'm still looking for ways to avoid working on my income tax. ( :- ) )

(Sat Apr 04 1998 07:50 - ID#286199)
Vronksy, I got HK gold from AP breaking news

(Sat Apr 04 1998 07:59 - ID#26793)
I have the data here which I received courtesy of Sharefin under his old handle. It ends sometime in October. I have incorporated it into a wider database that includes Dow, silver, ratios etc. since that date. It is in Paradox 7 format but I can export to several formats. Do you want to try a download or use regular mail? Sounds like a good project. I woke up this morning with the thought on my mind that the XAU database is entirely contained within a gold bear market which may or may not yet be over. That will be a problem in working with the XAU for many years. I will be here for another hour but out until about 3pm EST the rest of the day.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 07:59 - ID#426220)
Speed: Thx for the info

(Sat Apr 04 1998 08:04 - ID#26793)
Japanese problems having an impact on Mexico

(Sat Apr 04 1998 08:06 - ID#432157)
To Sharefin

Please Keep up the file on ANOTHER, spent a hour going through his posts .Very Interesting

Bart--------GREAT SITE


(Sat Apr 04 1998 08:09 - ID#26793)
Indonesia "freezes" licenses of 7 banks (whatever that means

(Sat Apr 04 1998 08:10 - ID#330175)
@ Cape Breton...........................................................* go GOLD*....but no SNOW
mornin.....typical my ABX was one of the worst-winners of the gold flock yesterday,huh..arf...arf..arf...Snowin like hell right now---8 mile walk over---musac blarin,eh!...hard to think ( duh ) ...from my simple- minded thought process,it appears ( notice I'm! ) that Sunday night ( ASIA ) will be the key ( again,duh ) to GOLD's near term future ( another hedge,huh.....yup,big waves and snowin soooo hard ya can barely see the ocean ( wonder if the water's warm...yet?? ) ....well,over & out!---HI 'ole Newbrunswickers'!---

(Sat Apr 04 1998 08:14 - ID#26793)
Text of Indonesian bank freeze order.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 08:17 - ID#341189)
Thanks for the offer to share your data. I only need the XAU. Perhaps mail would be best. I don't have your e-mail address. Mine in now If you send me a note I will return my home address. Perhaps this could be expanded back further by using ASA or HM as proxies for the XAU?

(Sat Apr 04 1998 08:18 - ID#330175)
Donald(fellow ocean-person)...........................and the weather
Mornin Donald: 32 degrees & a total 'white-out'---feels like Christmas and all those old 'golden' moments....*go ABX ( arf... ) --do somethin Munk ( I read yer damn book!---where's that shareholder 'friendly-stuff' behavoir,huh? ) .. ) ..

(Sat Apr 04 1998 08:18 - ID#248180)
Lighten Up Kats & Kittens - PM's are going to soar this year!
Don't you just luv the way booozzze talks, with such confidence.
Som-one please pass the "quick-eze" that's "Rolaides" or Alka Seltzer to you Yanks. Great Oz wine, lamb, Stol/Vodka and only very below average pickles. "Life was not meant to be easy" said Malcolm F with his pants down.

ORIS - for Russian only another drink can fix the problems of over indulgence. Great time had by all ( well at least me anyway ) . Did my great Boris Nickoliavich Yeltsin routine and dismissed all the politicians, but demanded that their wives stay for games etc. Ah Boris Nickoliavich, always better when he is drinking, so so so Ruskie Yelaveik.
Good night must go find my Blondinka~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

ANOTHER, Hey Mr. ANOTHER - what is name of your Camel? Is it a blond camel? Or oily-greasy blackish with a golden tail?

I remember a beautiful song "Ahab the Arab King of the Burning Sand" Ahab's camel, I think was called ClYDE "and into the tent he went"!!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 08:19 - ID#26793)
Argentine stocks down 3.1%, Asian problems blamed.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 08:31 - ID#26793)
We are 42F and cloudy, nothing to brag about today. Hey, it keeps the tourists away a little longer.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 08:39 - ID#411112)
Those who follow the numismstics.(saints/lib's) MS 63's have been on fire ,while there has been much
attention paid to bullion moving $10.00 +_,MS 63,s have moved $ close attention to this area,even if you do not like this market,it reflects more of the real world,only two players collectors,investors,collectors buy with no intention of selling,as more collectors come in taking from a ever dicreasing supply,this leaves investor,who buys for profit,chasing fewer nice coins,the old supply demand kicks in,yes it still works as reflected by current rising prices and tight supply

(Sat Apr 04 1998 08:47 - ID#286230)
Ted: Off on my 5 K walk along the eastern beaches of Toronto. It seems to be sunny but too cool wear my golden longs just yet.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 08:48 - ID#210114)
Don't Startle the Waking Bull
Am delighted to see POG at $US307.70. With an exchange rate of .656 that makes the POG in Australian dollars some $469 ounce. That is a rise of $30 in the past two weeks.

Bill Buckler's pointer has once again worked. Oz dollar rise preceeds US dollar rise.

My only concern is another anouncement of a CB sale. Rmemeber last October when the Swiss announced that it might be selling 1400 tons? Other than that it looks like the bull is on. Let it not be startled by another CB sale.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 08:55 - ID#411112)
Two interesting storys,Microsoft stock stronger than the $,CIA bust a spy,for giving out US info,

yet Babba does it for soft money,go figure.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 09:09 - ID#238295)
Selby: You sure did sound like a gold short all these months. As bearish as Andy Smith and correctly so for quite a while. Guess you didn't have the courage of your convictions.

RJ: I am the first to admit your forecasting record was very good until recently. You were correctly bearish when others ( myself included ) were mistakenly bullish. Nothing wrong with shorting gold or anything else. It is your arrogant know it all attitude that turns me off. You too can get it wrong, badly wrong.

Among those posters who kept the candles burning during the darkest hours of the gold bear, I must include Hepcat. When he said the bottom was in at $277, that clinched it for me.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 09:10 - ID#253246)
Ted what ya think is on Munks shopping list for this summer
In a G & M interview a month or so ago he stated that he was going
to look at growth opportunities "within" abx and didn't plan on
looking outside until mid year.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 09:29 - ID#257136)
Mozel: Your post re: money and frns awakened memories for me.
Some of them better left unsaid. I spent an inordinate amount of time in the Library of The University of Denver Law School in 1974--1978.
Major area of research was the trail of our money and why it kinda disappeared.
I for one appreciate what you are doing in terms of educating the "masses". We on kitco have stupendous knowledge, but I venture to state that less than 2% of the posters and lurkers fully comprehend what it is you are about.
I want to say "been there and done that", but it was a LONG time ago. And not to the degree to which you are laboring.
Had I known then what I know now about finance and the constructs of the financial world, I would be literally millions ahead.
I did learn that some things are not for sale.
I also learned that the average serf does not WANT freedom. The average American slave can't handle it. They will relinquish the little they have for a beer, a 4 wheeler, and 100 frns worth of Food Stamps, if push comes to shove.
I've heared the old saw 'bout" my cold dead fingers" and I know less than 5% of our people will have the temerity to hang in there when the curtain begins to descend.
Which may be any day now.
BTW, in the course of my lookin' I found the treaty which permits U.S.Citizens to bank offshore and it was part of the basis of many of the trusts drawn up in the 70s and early 80s.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 09:44 - ID#420116)
tolerant1 Thanks for the tip$$$$ last month.

To all Kitco -

A passage from "The Early Ayn Rand", A selection from her unpublished fiction. The play is called "Ideal"

KAY GONDA. I want to see, real, living, and in the hours of my own days, that glory I create as an illusion! I want it real! I want to know that there is someone, somewhere, who wants it, too! Or else what is the use of seeing it, and working, and burning oneself for an impossible vision? A spirit, too, needs fuel. It can run dry.

JOHNNIE. I want to tell you only this: there are a few on earth who see you and understand. These few give life its meaning. The rest - well, the rest are what you see they are. You have a duty. To live. Just to remain on earth. To let them know you do and can exist. We can't give up the earth to all those others.

Sha mat. Gooo Gooold ! ! !

- A.I.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 09:50 - ID#238295)
Preacher: Let me again express my appreciation for your TA posts on bullion and the XAU. You are one of the most valuable posters on KITCO.
And unlike some here, you do not claim to be infallible.

Why is gold holding up as Asian markets and currencies slide again? Perhaps insiders know that gold will account for a much bigger portion of EMU reserves than most think? Or perhaps US-Japan confrontation has reached the stage of open financial warfare. US encouraging hedge funds to smash the yen and Japan trying to smash US markets by pushing up POG sharply.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 09:51 - ID#429121)
The recent ( past year ) trend shows that if the DOW rises quickly or to new highs, the metals go up; if the DOW falls rapidly, so do the metals. ( With the occasional exception of Platinum. ) A lot has changed ( lower COMEX inventories, Buffet, etc. ) but could one reasonably expect the DOW-PGM relationship to continue? Just a question.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 09:52 - ID#288369)
@this particular this predictable place, I must say..............
"I feel good" "like I knew I would"...OOOOOHHHHHHH! James Brown, the Godfather of Soul....Soulbrother Numero Uno. Good Mornin' J.B. Wherever you are! Stay in school and GO GOLDBUGS!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 10:02 - ID#433422)
OLD GOLD, please share with me what you know, or where to look,
in regards to Japan pushing up POG.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 10:09 - ID#288369)
@question?? for you Bible-onians.....
Are there passages in the Bible, or the Koran, or the Book of Islam, er go, that addresses the situation where forty people own the same gold. Maybe someone like The Preacher could offer this verse...we may desperately need guidance when the chaos and flux comes...amen ( BTW, Preacher, thanks for the continued enlightenment..what do we owe ya? )

(Sat Apr 04 1998 10:10 - ID#411149)
Got a good story over @ Barrons "Crude Awakening" GET READY FOR

Old Gold- yesterday wuz jest the beginning, I can start to see
how my friends prediction of $550 by CAN happen.

Ted- The sun is out again today! beautiful spring day here in
N. LA.

Tally Ho

(Sat Apr 04 1998 10:12 - ID#411149)
Here it is

TallY hO

(Sat Apr 04 1998 10:17 - ID#222231)
ALL-Current hotest industry is Gold & Silver!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 10:20 - ID#288369)
addresses=address...not that anyone gives a flying flip. Poorboys...what Big V and huh? lumdee...lumdee...lye..eye...yea! lumdee...lumdee lye...eye. ohmy! ( eb )

(Sat Apr 04 1998 10:23 - ID#258129)
@gunrunner, 09:51
I have posted about this dependency several months ago with chart and correlation figures, but seams that nobody took it serious

(Sat Apr 04 1998 10:34 - ID#411112)
Of all the states there is a lot going on in Colorado,must be something to "Rocky Mountain High"

Lan Man
(Sat Apr 04 1998 10:40 - ID#320108)
@Pump up the Volume
On friday I rcvd not one but two offers from my credit card companies to help inflate the money suppy. Both included checks and one offered a low 8.50% variable APR on balance transfers and cash advances. Since I don't have any balances can't use the tranfers. BTW the rates are not introductory teaser rates. Wonder what they would say if I said "Sure, give me that $10k cash advance so that I may go and Buy Gold and what the heck, give me ANOTHER $10k so that I can pick up some extra Mining Shares!"

Tyler Rose
(Sat Apr 04 1998 10:55 - ID#373164)

That URL requires a password. Can you post the article?

Thank you.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 11:01 - ID#270283)

oldgold when a body enters atrade they will recomend that a body risk a certain amount.can you tell me where this figure comes the amount of the trade or what?

(Sat Apr 04 1998 11:04 - ID#411149)
Tyler Rose- It won't let me do that. Won't copy. I think you can go to the main page and sign up for a free trial. I tried. I could almost make a paper airplane and throw your way!

Tally Ho

(Sat Apr 04 1998 11:11 - ID#288369)
@EBeans.....poot. your pot
The more you've got
The more they have not.


(Sat Apr 04 1998 11:16 - ID#183109)
Tally Ho....Get ready for inflation to resurface
Monday, April 6, 1998
Crude Awakening
Get ready for inflation to resurface
By Cheryl Strauss Einhorn
Key Commodity Indexes
Most commodity prices have been falling steadily for the past six months, but don't be lulled into a false sense of security. The slide probably won't continue much longer, and in coming months, firming commodity prices could contribute to a surprise spurt in inflation.

In recent months, of course, the story has been quite the opposite: Weak commodity prices have helped keep inflation in check. For example, even as workers were winning slightly higher wages over the past year, their pay gains were being offset in the Consumer Price Index by falling prices for metals, textiles and oil.

Of course, the most important commodity to the economy is oil, and after falling to a low of $13.80 a barrel a few weeks ago, oil prices have recovered to a recent $16.50. Although recent OPEC production agreements remain murky, no one is predicting that prices will fall back to that earlier low.

Make no mistake, any serious rekindling of inflation would come as a shock to the markets, in part because deflation has been the order of the day in recent months. The energy-heavy Goldman Sachs Commodity Index fell to multi-year lows not long ago, and the Journal of Commerce Index has dropped every month since August of last year, making for a total decline of 15%.

That said, commodities do seem to be preparing to bounce back. The broadest measure of commodity prices, the CRBBridge Index, for example, showed signs of bottoming out nearly a month ago. Further evidence comes from the trading floor. The Commitment of Traders Report, which tracks market buyers and sellers, shows that 82% of companies dealing in physical commodities are betting that prices will rise. Don't be surprised if such confidence leads to a spring rally.

It's true that commodities make up only a small part of the overall cost of producing goods -- about 12%, to be exact. But even if commodity prices simply stop falling, they would allow any further increases in wage costs to show through more clearly. And recent tightening in the labor market makes further wage gains, and future inflation, seem highly likely.

"There will be nothing ahead but upside and blue skies for the labor cost cycle," says Morgan Stanley Dean Witter economist Stephen Roach. "Now labor will be the dominating factor in the CPI."

One of the major arguments against inflation centers around the collapse of the Asian economies, and that disaster certainly has hurt commodities. When Asia was expanding apace, world soybean demand increased along with Asia's surging demand for meat and poultry. Soybean prices rallied above $9 last year. Now, though, as Asians are forced to shutter unprofitable businesses and banks, the agricultural industry must contract, too. One result: soybeans may trade to $5 this fall. But the November contract is already at $6.

One could make a similar argument for other commodity markets, like meat and cotton; the deflationary shock of Asia has been largely factored into prices by now. Roach goes a step farther. He says Asia's effect on the U.S. economy has been overestimated; adding that 80% of the U.S. economy is driven by domestic factors. Moreover, Asia, excluding Japan, accounts for only 7% of world trade, and world trade is 20% of global economic output. That means only 1.5% of the world economy will be affected by Asian trade. "The world won't feel global deflation because of this," Roach says.

Another point: 90% of commodities are priced in U.S. dollars. Should the dollar continue to rise, commodity prices will fall. But the U.S. dollar could suffer due to our ballooning balance-of-payments problem as we import more and export less. Without deflation or a rising dollar, it seems certain that commodity prices will tick upward and the Consumer Price Index will follow suit.

This may not become obvious until May, when the April CPI data are released. Commodity prices tend to lead the economy because they're used in basic industries, but the CPI is a lagging indicator.

Firm commodity prices, mixed with rising wages, will affect not only the CPI but bonds as well. Roach expects the CPI to surpass 3% this year. And while historically, 3% is benign, Roach points out that a bond market "like ours, which is priced for no inflation, is in for a rude awakening."

Key Commodity Indexes

CRB Group Indexes 4/3 3/27 Yr. Ago
CRB Futures 227.88 229.93 240.35
Industrials 206.58 211.30 261.13
Grains/Oilseeds 202.16 207.44 229.37
Livestock 230.91 228.52 270.40
Energy 180.44 178.78 189.06
Precious Metals 271.78 266.04 246.75
Barrons Bridge

Return to top of page
Copyright 1998 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 11:22 - ID#200235)
French Govt announces support for gold backing
US Global Investors telephone information line ( l 800 US FUNDS ) explained the rise in POG because a French Government Official announced that the EMU should have some gold reserves to back the EURO.

Can anyone expand on this. IMHO, once the euro becomes reality and is in fact backed with a percentage of gold the Asians will surely notice. Then, the OPEC countries will surely initiate their own currency.

These two new, and viable currencies will spell doom for the ability of the US to print unlimited dollars.

Stay tuned . The next 6 months will be very interesting.

TO BART: Keep up the good work. This is the best bulletin board on the WWW.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 11:29 - ID#254112)
@mozel(Apr 04 1998, 1:14 am)
Thank you very much for your very valuable information about the socalled "US"-dollar and the list of the laws, which adjusted the Federal Reserve System to the needs and to the comfortable use of the international bankers oligarchy, which rules this country.

Don't forget to analyse the process of creation of money, to ask who has the power and the benefit to create money, and how this process of money creation works in detail. There are different levels of money creation. The most important one happens on the federal level: the Treasury Dept. issues T-bills or T-bonds to the FRB ( of New York ) and receives an uncovered check. The Treasury deposits this check and can spend the money. This is creation of money out of thin air. But this doesn't explain the whole story.

It shows only that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has the monopoly right to hand to the government an uncovered check and supply the money once this check is deposited.

This does not explain, what the FRB does with the proceeds for selling the T-bills to the public. And, what the FRB does with the T-bills which it cannot sell to the public. If the proceeds for the sales of T-bills would be dumped by the FRB into a black hole, so to say vacuumcleaned away from circulation, this process wouldn't be so interesting. But we all know that this is NOT what happens. We all know these proceeds end up somewhere. But where? Exactly where and how ? It's not enough to say: "o.k., it ends up in the hands of those international bankers who have pushed for this system and gotten the FRS law on December 23, 1913."

This is only the most plausible supposition. But we must understand in detail, how the T-bill proceeds are booked and converted into assets of whom after they are sold to the public.

One of the best books about the Federal Reserve System, how and by whom it was created, is "The Creature from Jekyll Island" by G. Edward Griffin. ( American Media, P.O. Box 4646, Westlake Village, CA 91359-1646 )
Griffin should be very popular on this site because he is a strong advocate for gold backed currencies. It's exciting to read, but it doesn't sufficiently explain the above questioned booking mechanism.

Any comments ?

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sat Apr 04 1998 11:38 - ID#31876)
Allen(USA), Colin Seymour's Link to Your Fine Analysis on Fractional Reserves

(Sat Apr 04 1998 11:39 - ID#342282)
I need to talk to you. Somethings up. My incoming email is ok. The outgoing is still out. You have my phone or you can email me yours. Got to go out awhile, be back by 7PM. Thanx Charlie

(Sat Apr 04 1998 11:49 - ID#286230)
A stopped clocked is right every 2 years
Coled George: Actually George putting money into the stock market back in the summer of '96 was my conviction and I stated that between your daily forecasts of gold going up for the last 2 years. I suggest you hang on to your view that gold is going up because you will be correct. In your case when gold gets back to $395 you will have come full circle and you never have wavered in your views through out the trip. And, contrary to some views Hepcat has been the best predictor locally and --in sharp contrast --showed definitively that posing as a learned gentleman is not the same as knowing what your are talking about.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 11:49 - ID#331205)
You can search here for Bible ref.:
Proverbs 25:11 A word aptly spoken is like apples of gold in settings of silver.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 11:52 - ID#411149)
Polarbear- I wish you would tell me how you did that?? My computer
won't copy that? Thanks a BUNCH!

Tally Ho

(Sat Apr 04 1998 11:53 - ID#411112)
Alberich,current supporters of as gold standard Steve Forbes,Ron Paul,posted this before there are

folks out there doing something.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 11:53 - ID#238422)
AUH20\OPEC currency:oillar?pound oiling?OPEC frank?..
I tried to expand on your thoughts.
After expansion was completed, I came
to the conclusion that OPEC countries
will not initiate their own currency,
because these countries will never agree
on the subject of the name for the new currency...
Somebody should help them to name their new currency.
Any ideas on Saturday morning?

(Sat Apr 04 1998 11:54 - ID#342282)
Midwesterner re packet
I think I have enough on this. Got to go out for awhile, be back by 7PM

(Sat Apr 04 1998 11:58 - ID#238422)
Oh, I forgot to mention.
The winner of the contest for the best name for
OPEC currency will be awarded 1 barrel of OPEC oil
( in a plastic blue barrel ) and a thankyou letter
from Another...

(Sat Apr 04 1998 12:00 - ID#342282)
Midwesterner re packet
I think I've got done. Got to go out awhile, be back by 7PM

(Sat Apr 04 1998 12:08 - ID#224149)
Go GOLD ---Go Platinum
Ted 8 miles ---seems I have some hangy from yesterday Dont eat the little piggies just invest in the critters since Americans love bacon and all that stuff ---Away for some kind of walk .

(Sat Apr 04 1998 12:16 - ID#258129)
EURO - Gold article
Sorry, if was posted before - was away for a few days

(Sat Apr 04 1998 12:43 - ID#28594)
Bart: Never! Secure lines, known net, encoded transmissions....
It is commonly referred to as private money for a reason, yes? {:- ) )
The 10% was to cover the improbable possible. {:- ) )

Delphi@Salt.Survey Would you be so kind as to please join our
"hunt" for a world price standard that is NOT fogged by USD?
If you could price salt, and give us weight and cost in NLG it
would be much appreciated! Thank you. {:- ) [You may have missed
A. Goose's post re: this Salt Survey...

(Sat Apr 04 1998 12:54 - ID#28594)
Oris--How about calling it the "SDR" ? {:-)
therefore an urgent need ... to ensure that the transition to a TRIPOLAR CURRENCY system proceeds with... international coordination to minimize instability in the exchange and capital markets

(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:00 - ID#224149)
Technical analysis for April 6 Futures market xau support 80.29 Gold gc98m support 301.20 Silver si98k support 6.23 Platinum pl98n support 391 --- 383  Dow Jones dj98m support 8805 ---Good luck trading.

John Disney__A
(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:02 - ID#24135)
An odd way of looking at things.
to All
Regarding Harmony .. Take a look. Between march29 and july 5
last year it fell from 36 to 22 rand .. plus or minus .
I estimate that less than 1.5 million shares were traded over that period.
On this past friday an amazing 500,000 shares were traded. Thus the
area from where we are now up to 36 rand has almost NO overhang and could be taken out very quickly with the volumns we are now seeing.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:05 - ID#28594)
Alberich the Dwarf--What happens after Creation?
[From a BIS annual report to shareholders--]

"2. Signifcant accounting policies
( a ) Unit of account and currency translation

The unit of account of the Bank is the gold franc, which is equivalent to US$1.941 49... . Article 4 of the Banks Statutes defines the gold franc ( abbreviated to GF ) as representing 0.290322 58... grammes of fine gold.

Items representing claims on gold are translated into gold francs on the basis of their fine weight..

ITEMS DENOMINATED IN US DOLLARS ARE TRANSLATED INTO GOLD FRANCS ON THE BASIS OF A GOLD PRICE OF US$208 PER OUNCE OF FINE GOLD ( this price was established by the BANKS BOARD OF DIRECTORS IN 1979, resulting in the conversion factor of 1 gold france = us$1.941 49... ) ."

(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:08 - ID#373403)
Reserve banking and by implication reserve warehouse gold brokerage has the potential for panics and runs on reserves. Who are the traders of this paper? Speculators? Jewelry industry users? It seems they should be concerned whether their gold will ever be available or if their hedges are really reducing risk.

Who supplies Comex their metals? If Comex gets squeezed, will their reserve system hold up? Won't they in effect have to cover their short position?

(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:12 - ID#431263)
"Creature from Jekyl Island" is a John Birch publication is it not? Many of them living here in my neck of the woods. Good people but definitely paranoid! See conspirators and conspiracies behind everything--kinda' like Sen. Joe McCarthy another Birch sympathizer. The facts however are pretty clear. The Federal Reserve is a creation of the elite to protect and preserve not the Constitution of the US but rather their own monied interests! No wonder Jefferson was opposed to the creation of a Central Bank for the fledgling new nation! He knew it would eventually lead to tyranny with a capital T!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:13 - ID#22956)
GSC....aka........OLD GOLD....(duh).
Opening LARGE cans-o-worms are we??!? I guess this is par for the course ( golf expression ) . i.e. - more crp from Cle...whatever....... ( yawn ) .
nuff said...
away...from his nonsense

who is this Andy dude anyway?? BFD...

go plat. ( $ ) .

(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:24 - ID#240316)
One way to get a Barron's article copied is to right click on the article and save it. Once saved, change the extention to .txt and use notepad or some other word processor to edit it to remove all the html codes. You have to remove the codes before Bart's system will allow you to post it.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:26 - ID#258129)
SDRer__A - salt survey
Its my wife who does shopping. Just asked her - dont remember exactly - told something between 0.5 and 0.7 NLG / kg. Shops already closed today, will be opened on Monday. I can post more precise data then

(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:29 - ID#22956)
one more thing....
six figure gains my  said it yourself ( after all the ENDLESS cheerleading ) that you were not even in the gold markets. If the nonsense you spout was even true it most assuredly does not begin to make up for the losses you must have suffered ALL of last year...... ( ugh ) .....

btw, what funds have brought you these lofty profits from a measly 25 dollar rise in POG ( assuming you even bought at the bottom which is highly unlikely ) ?? NEVER believe a word of his crap!

roflolandspillinghotcoffeeonthecat.... ( meow!...phffffttt! ) ...

turned off by George S. Cole..........aka....Old Gold.... ( duh ) .

(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:31 - ID#22956)
don't even get me started....
( ! )

(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:33 - ID#23398)
General info; S.A. 495 US 329 AUS 289 CAN 164 CHINA 145 RUSSIA 130 INDONESIA 92 UZBEKISTAN 71 PERU 65 BRAZIL 64.

0. They are waiting for the unseen hand of the arket tocorrect the lighting disequilibrium.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:36 - ID#430236)
Barron's... and the
Barron's Cheryl Strauss Einhorn did it again in the "Commodities


After blasting gold as lousy investment early this year, she went on

criticizing Peter Munk's speech in Davos Switzerland as a "Goldpec" type

of move.

She had 3 choices for the 1998 "gold problem", in this week's Barron's.

1 ) talk down gold and gold investments ( that would have been bullish )

2 ) suggest that gold and gold stocks is the way to go now ( that would

have been bullish, but not as much as 1 ) and 2 )

3 ) ignore gold altogether ( that is what she did and that is bullish in

view of her background as being negative about gold ) . She talked about

oil instead! Great... time to load up on some more gold.

Is Barron's take on gold a "casual mistake"? Or is it manipulation? Or

simply incompetence? ( In Germany and Europe: they talk about gold and

suggest to invest in it, right now,... and suggested that 1 month ago

despite local CBs gold selling! ) .


(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:41 - ID#288369)
@EBlack Cat Bone......down and dirty.
Six figures in rupiah=$10. US....jumpin' cat's a gas...gas...gas. SO, Where's the whale now? Calling big whale....calling whale....Please, radio your position!...Geeze, I luv Ca.. I'm goin' put transmitters on my cows. Calling my cows! Come in. over....

(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:41 - ID#411149)
Gaston2- I think maybe we ought to sack her up too and haul her
down to the white house!

Tally Ho

(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:42 - ID#430236)
1998's gold problem...
Interstingly enough, here are the performances for DOW, XOI and XAU this

year, and to this date...

Data from

( a ) beginning of 1998 to now followed by

( b ) From 1998's low to now

DOW ( a ) +14% ( b ) +19%

XOI ( a ) +7% ( b ) +17%

XAU ( a ) +18% ( b ) +42%

and the XAU is ze weiner

Interstingly enough, here are the performances for DOW, XOI and XAU this year, and to this date...

From beginning of 1998 to now From 1998 low to now

DOW +14% +19%

XOI +7% +17%

XAU +18% +42% and the XAU is ze weiner

I guess gold was a bad investment at the beginning of 1998 and still is a bad investment... Let's short gold and gold stocks... especially because the XAU is making higher lows and higher highs recently...rofl...

And make sure nobody buys this coming commemorative "Millenium" gold coin designed to take 500 to 2000 tonnes of gold off the market. Puuleeeese! don't buy it: that could be bad for your financial health.... gggg

(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:43 - ID#238295)
Ted: This is one rich old fool despite his mistakes. You are the fool my friend. Your TED SPREAD is getting truly gross Seems to me that you should be on an equities thread. That is your true love. Can't figure out why you are here.

EB: Yes I did make a six figure gain last week. Eat your heart out my friend.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:45 - ID#411149)
ol'paint- I ain't vary smart on them things but I will sure try,

Tally Ho

(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:47 - ID#402148)
...any thoughts on when it starts up?

(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:47 - ID#411149)

Tally Ho

(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:49 - ID#224149)
Go ---Platinum --Go ----Gold
I see some of our posters are gaining weight ---Six pounds in one week Better follow Ted ---get walking ---------

(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:57 - ID#238295)
Selby: I agre Hepcat is the best gold forecaster on this thread and have said so several times. But unlike some he knows a bottom when he sees it.

Always wondered about the rationale for your long and correct gold bear position. You stated many times that gold is going down because no one wants it right now. To that I ask. Why does no one want it? And under what conditions will this change?

BTW, are you still bearish or have you changed your position

Selby I do consider you a gentlemen and a scholar and have no animus towards you at all despite our differing views. You express your take and make no arrogant claims about infallibility.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 13:58 - ID#342437)

(Sat Apr 04 1998 14:04 - ID#238295)

Gold Watch, February 27, 1998


The Computer Funds Return to the Short Side

Why 1998 Should Be More Positive Than 1997

   Last week we made the following statement:

Over the last week we have some fund buying as well as indications of possible producer buybacks. Yet, the
gold price has gone nowhere. There has been persistent selling. Statements out of Korea suggest Korean
sales of possible 25-30 tonnes every week or so. Statements by Terry Smeeton of the Bank of England hint
at persistent official selling. In the past, fund buying with no upside progress in the gold price has been a
harbinger of a renewed decline in the gold price. However, this juncture may be different. Warren Buffet's
move into silver may be causing funds to re-assess the outlook for gold in a more positive fashion. Several
formerly bearish dealers are hinting to funds and producers that the official selling of 1997 may abate soon.
Along these lines, Peter Munk, Chairman of American Barrick, has returned from Davos where he met with
the European central banks. The message he brought back is that these central banks may soon clearly
indicate that claims of endless official selling out of Europe fostered by the financial press are a "totally
false assumption".

Surely Asian dishoarding has helped abort the recent rally in the gold price. We hear of a possible new large producer hedge program. Over the last several days price
resistance in large part from Far East dishoarding turned the gold chart down. This is now generating a return to the short side by computer driven trend following
funds. This is no surprise.

Nonetheless, we believe that conditions are different this time. Why? Below we list the adverse shocks to the gold market over the last year and a half. We then
counter with our expectations for the future course of these shocks.

Adverse Shock No. 1- The Asian Currency Crisis

We have just released our third monthly study on the Asian currency crisis and gold. In each reiteration of this analysis, we have increased our estimate of the
negative impact this crisis has had on the gold market. In the end, the Cassandra warnings of the markets' most vocal bears---Andy Smith and Ted Arnold---have
tended to be more or less correct. In our third pass at analyzing this phenomenon, we have concluded that this crisis may have depressed the gold price by $60 or
more. Most of this adverse shock has taken the form of investor dishoarding, chiefly in Korea, and inventory dishoarding by commercials across Far East Asia.


In our estimation, the inventory dishoarding by commercials must be largely over, though it may persist at a reduced rate for some months to come. Investor
dishoarding in Korea has been providing over 100 tonnes of gold per month to the market in January and February. Korean households who have wanted to sell their
gold have probably done so by now. We expect this dishoarding to cease by mid year. All in all, such investor dishoarding and commercial inventory liquidation,
which may have approximated 100 tonnes a month since some time in Q397, should dry up by mid year.

Adverse Shock No. 2- EMU Related Central Bank Selling

We do not know for sure whether there has been EMU related official selling in 1997. GFMS estimates that several European central banks have sold quantities of
gold which have yet to be disclosed. We have our own special reasons for believing the Dutch were sellers in 1997. There appears to be a consensus in the dealer
community that such selling occurred last year.


Terry Smeeton of the Bank of England and Chris Stals of the Reserve Bank of South Africa have both predicted continued European central bank selling both up to
and after the formation of the European Central Bank. By contrast, we have amassed evidence over the last six months that, once the ECB is created, the French and
Germans will restrain, if not prevent outright, further European central bank selling. Peter Munk and Julian Baring have come back from Davos with the impression
that European central bank selling will abate in 1998. Jean Claude Trichet of the Bank of France has made many public statements that are supportive of gold as a
reserve asset over the last month or so. Peter Munk expects that the central banks of Europe will make a statement to the effect that financial press allegations of a high
level of European central bank selling in the future are without substance. We have heard today that , after selling its Barrick shares, Munk's real estate company
bought out-of-the-money calls on Barrick shares with an April expiration date. This may reflect an expectation that the European central banks will make such a
statement before early May when the countries in EMU and their exchange rates will be decided upon.

The fact that there has been no announcement yet on EMU related selling suggests there is more to be done. Besides the hints of Smeeton and Stals, we have received
one report that some European selling is to be expected soon. However, after the fixing of the currencies in late April or May, EMU related selling should abate or
stop. On balance, we expect an abatement in EMU related selling in 1998 relative to 1997.

Adverse Shocks No 3 - Producer Hedging

Threats of EMU related official selling were widely advertised by the bullion dealers in 1997. The data on producer hedging in 1997 is now coming in. It is possible
that the Australian producers increased their hedge position by more than 400 tonnes in 1997. The leading survey of North American hedge positions indicates a rise
in the North American hedge position of close to 150 tonnes in the first three quarters of 1997. We understand that the North American producers probably added to
their hedge position in Q497. More importantly, we understand that the African producers added to their hedges in 1997 overall. It is possible that producer hedging
increased by 700 tonnes in 1997.


Seven hundred tonnes of hedging in 1997 would be a record. Will it happen in 1998? The bear market of 1997 has convinced most producers of the merits of
hedging. The Australians have hedged four years of annual production . The rest of the world's producers have hedged less than one year on average. It is easy to see
these other producers would eventually try to hedge two years of production, but the odds are that they would not try to do this in one or even two years. We expect
considerable net new hedging in 1998. However, the historical record suggests it will not equal 1997's record level.

Adverse Shock No. 4 Speculator Short Sales

We argued throughout the first eight months of 1997 that fund short selling was depressing the gold price. Gold Fields Mineral Services, Ltd. ( GFMS ) has estimated
that the combination of Western investor dishoarding of physical bullion plus speculator short sales came to 250 tonnes last year. We believe that net speculator short
selling greatly exceeded that total by September. These speculator short sales comprise both derivative sales by funds as well as gold borrowings by bullion banks
and others to finance non-gold positions. As an example of the latter, there is evidence that Korean banks borrowed gold to finance non-gold positions. These latter
positions have been building throughout the 1990's. We would not be surprised if speculator short positions of these types increased by more than 500 tonnes
through early September of 1997 and were the dominant selling pressure on the gold market in the first eight months of 1997. However, there was a dramatic
reduction in these speculative shorts on the rally in September/October. We believe that most but not all of these short positions were put on again by year end 1997.
In effect, there was something of a reduction in the short position in the fourth quarter when net official sales persisted, Asian end use demands declined, and Asian
dishoarding and producer hedging possibly intensified. We believe that there has been a further reduction in the net speculative short position so far in 1998.

On balance we estimate that the net increase in speculative shorts in 1997 may have been on the order of 400 tonnes. If producer hedging was almost 700 tonnes and
net official sales were 500 tonnes---both of which seem plausible to us---there simply is no room for more than 400 tonnes of net speculative short selling ( including
gold carry trades ) in 1997.


Speculative short selling in 1997 was encouraged by dealer indications of EMU related official sector sales. Some dealers are indicating these might abate in 1998.
Peter Munk and Julian Baring have suggested the same on their return from Davos. Such reports should lead speculators to consider reducing their short positions.
We believe this has already begun to happen in January and February of this year.

When the gold price rallies on a sustained basis in 1998, the trend following computer funds will go from short to long. Hedge funds and proprietary traders will
cover their shorts. The gold carry trade might be reduced. If official selling and Asian dishoarding abate in 1998 and lead to a gold price rally, the net speculator short
selling in 1997 will be replaced by net speculator buying.


The gold market is basing amidst intense Asian dishoarding and possibly some official selling on rallies above $300. Both of these should abate in the first half of
1998. A reversal of net speculator flows will augment any rally. The producer sector will probably not provide more resistance in such an environment than it did in
1997. The greatest price resistance will come from short run and largely transitory abatements in physical demand that accompany all gold price rallies. Scale up delta
hedging of central bank options will also provide transitory price resistance. ( These effects are discussed in detail in chapter four of our forthcoming Gold Book
Annual ) . So may official sales by non European central banks who have been convinced by last year's torrent of bearish commentary on gold that they too should sell
some or all of their gold. On balance, with an abatement of Asian investor and commercial inventory dishoarding, the gold price should retrace its decline of
1996-1997, possibly over a time frame of similar duration.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 14:10 - ID#22956)
Whale of a story......
StudioR - that whale thing is pretty funny stuff....he kicked off his transmitters fifteen miles out. Your guess is as good as mine.

Old-Bullsh!tter-Gold-G-S-C .... Yeah right......whatever. Name the BIG BS'er!! Eat my heart out.......really.....keep your powder dry!! Old-BS' THAT is one WHALE of a story...........shouldn't you be out spending your million-billion-gazillions? My math says GSC LOST six figures last year and had NO dry powder this year to make ONE figure......figure it out.

Ted - easy man, it's just the same old-mold-gold....I didn't know you were into the Ted Spread.....hmmmmmm.

away...from his nonsense


(Sat Apr 04 1998 14:28 - ID#288369)
@Martha Studio.r.... "It's a good thing...yes? HTHWIK......
( how the hell would I know ) ...So I got this idea ( first one in several years ) ...I said to those silver-wound nylon stings get funky and dull...what do you use to clean and brighten them? Huh? Why I use...FingerEase...all us guitar boys like keeps silver-coated strings from getting grundgey. Makes 'em last two to three times crap!

So what the hell does this have to do with a typical everyday GOLDBUG? Huh? Well, I sprayed a light coat on those funky sovereigns ( that looked like they were old bronze ) wiped and VOILA! Bright and clean...and I bet they stay that way...we'll see. Non-abrasive...really just a cleaning/protecting soloution. Neat stuff! The sov's look brand new and the fumes are delightful. Again, no acid...7 ph...I don't know what this crap is....but I do love it.

Away! take over FingerEase company...kinda' a sexy name? yesno?

(Sat Apr 04 1998 14:34 - ID#208393)
Japan & Great Depression
from Globe and Mail - Sat. Apr. 4, 1998

TOKYO -- Grim new warnings that Japan may be

on the brink of economic ruin have plunged

the country into a full-blown funk. For the

first time, Japan's predicament is now openly

being likened to the United States during the

Great Depression of the 1930s, when collapsing

prices inflicted economic havoc.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 14:38 - ID#238422)
SDRer and All
56th meeting, 69th meeting, D of C, Washington...
I can read, I hope, but what was it?
Exchange Club meeting?
Could you please explain the main idea to me in two words,
I'm confused, it's not simple enough for me, I got my
limitations...and ministers got their limitations.

To All: It's too early to declare Gold Bull, it's
just a tiny Gold Veal.Be realistic. Investors are not yet
in gold market - no numerous buyers - no dramatic
movement up. It's quite simple. By the way, if EURO is
as good as it planned to be, it's a competitor to gold
along with US$. Anybody thought about it? On the other hand,
we care about US$ price of gold, which will rise to match
realities. By the way, Europe ( EMU countries ) does not have
major gold mines and gold mining costs....

(Sat Apr 04 1998 14:38 - ID#330175)
Studio.R & EB...........................................................*go Gold*---go ABX(arf arf)
yoooooooooo bros...EB-check your mail

(Sat Apr 04 1998 14:39 - ID#254201)

Ouro and Others- you asked about shorting Silver. Here is my view. The next 2-3 weeks will be a period of sideways to downward price movement in the PM's. Friday's rally looked impressive, Yet gold and silver have not taken out their upper channel or trend lines from the 1995-6 highs. Until those channel lines or trend lines are violated on a weekly close basis the trend still has to be considered down. The current rally should exhaust itself early next week. If you're a trader; sell and or short June Gold between 311 - 313 use a $3-5 STOP, sell and or short May silver between 6.70-6.75 use a 5 -10 cent stop. Sell and or short the Xau at 95. I consider these lower risk entry points. These prices may or may not be hit. If they are not met don 't chase the market down. If the market looks like it s going to gap open above theses prices Monday morning cancel the trade. If during this correction process the xau can hold 80 or better it would be very bullish longer term. Silver may be completing a B wave rally with a hard C leg down to come. I'm currently long silver from 6.54. Yesterday morning ( 4/3 04:59 ) I sold out all my silver at 6.71 and bought it back at 6.54. I was lucky enough to take out profits amounting to 95% of the price move from 5.57 to 6.74. ( 3/17 9:20, 4/1 23.28 ) . I guess if you turn these charts the right way they do work sometimes. June S&P should it 1145 - 1150 next week then a sizeable correction.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 14:39 - ID#20135)
Date: Sat Apr 04 1998 12:43
SDRer__A ( Bart: Never! Secure lines, known net, encoded transmissions.... ) ID#28594:

SdRer I just checked my mail and zip, zero nothing... So I guess I'm not doing well in getting input on the price of salt around the world.

Lurkers please e-mail Salt> ( you need a space between Salt and Std )

So far I have 2 submissions that I just happened to pickup on kitco.

aurator ( cum kilo salis )

1Lb table salt ( with iodine ) = NZ$0.358

chas Morganton, N.C.

4 major stores: range 33 cents to 35 cents/pd. Average is 33.75 c/ pd

my own

$0.265 per pound Cupertino CA USA

With this very small sampling:

1 USDollar in cupertino CA usa = 1.3509 NZ$
1 USdollar in Morganton, N.C. usa = 1.0607 NZ$

Using the yahoo currency converter

Sat Apr 4 2:35PM Eastern U.S. Time -- U.S. Markets Closed.
US Dollar Exchange Rate New Zealand Dollar
1 Apr 3 1.815871 1.82

1usdollar = 1.815871 NZdollars

A big difference!!!!!

So please lend a hand and send the price of 1 pound of salt in your loacal currency to ( Salt ) . Include city, and country ( location ) .

Thanks in Advance.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 14:46 - ID#20135)
Don't know why last post had problem on e-mail address.

Send price of salt to:

( Salt )

Price in local currency per weigh unit, city, country.

We know that paper gold is maniputlated. Let us find out the true relationships between currencies. This test will be a good first step.

Thanks in advance.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 14:50 - ID#238295)
EB: Your nonsense and obvious wishful thinking gets ever more gross. Yes I did take some losses in gold last year, but they were quite modest indeed. So I had tons of try powder to enter this market near the lows, putting in more on the way up.

In the past I have ususlly avoided reading your boastful and arrogant posts. Now I will be skipping all of them.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 14:54 - ID#368244)
@ Studio R

Don't ever clean any type coin that might have collector value. Junk coins is one thing, but any numismatic coin with collector value will be ruined. You may already be aware of this, but just a friendly reminder.

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sat Apr 04 1998 14:58 - ID#182192)
Bart Kitner
I call nonentities "stupid", like the rock in the sidewalk
that causes me to stumble or the nameless person
who cuts me off in traffic. I will refrain
from calling someone named Big Time Tom "stupid"
when he criticizes me using a real name so that
he becomes a real person, and when he develops
something more than a selective memory for what
I post. As John Disney ( who incidentally,
has called me a lot worse than "stupid" without
threats of being kicked off ) has demonstrated,
it is easy to accuse someone of something if
you don't have to show any evidence of it.
Big Time Tom neglected to mention a subsequent
exchange with F+ which also took place before
Friday in which I stated "I never short gold".
I never stated I was always going to enjoy
100% infallibility, nor did I ever state that
I was always 100% right in everything I did
or said or spelled on this forum. But people
who have some perverse need to deny what has
happened over the last two years have the
same perverse need to extinguish every remnant
of it, and that involves expunging me or changing
everything I have said. For example, when I
state that I have posted under one handle since
the implementation of the stricter registration
policy, Vronsky tells me that is a lie while
insinuating that I am a homosexual, while Earl
tells me that that is the truth while comparing
me to a fart. I realize this is all just in
fun, right? Vronsky calls me a HOMO, Earl compares
me to a fart. That really is fun, and I sure want to
be able to participate in that fun, and of course
I can, because this is a forum where everyone,
people who make money on gold and people who lose
money on gold and people who make money by
temporarily staying away from gold, can be assured
of perpetual posting rights and the right to
modify what others say to best fit their message.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 15:06 - ID#317193)
Gold June Contracts-Help appreciated
I get to travel to Georgia this week and spend a day at the Masters. I plan to give instructions to my broker on tuesday regarding going long on June gold. I'm not a day trader, but might turn into one. I have both June and Dec. contracts already with good gains. My thought is to go long if June gold hits 315 with a larger number of contracts ( larger for me anyway ) . My real question deals with my stops. I'm planning on stops around $4 under purchase price of the new contracts for all my June contracts. This would result in a small loss on the total of the June contracts but even a $4 loss on the Dec. contracts would leave me with a good gain . My other thought is to place the stops very tight and take my gains and wait for another day. Of course this assumes a rise in price of $5 which may or may not be seen. One last alternative is to set close stops and double or triple the number of contracts purchased. Yes, I have the cash to back up just about any big swing down. Also, I already have some options-out of the money and don't want to spend the money on closer ones. I'd rather take my risk and possible loss on the contracts. I'll take any thoughts, good or bad. If gold moves another $5 my gut even more than my TA says jump hard and soon. This may all be academic but got to plan ahead. My risk/reward level is good considering last weeks gains. I'm gambling with mostly house money unless a major downswing occurs. I expect gold to either retrace or rocket next week, you already know my preferance. I'll check back sunday for any responses. Thanks. Tom

(Sat Apr 04 1998 15:18 - ID#317193)
vronsky-short and sweet
Contempt for me is intellectually impossible on your part. I have a good size block of RSA shares, visit your site regularly and I am quite tired of reading or having to jump over the identical double or triple posts every day. Have some consideration for others. It won't hurt you to be considerate of others in all your posts. Smile, God is watching. Show some HUMOR. Tom

(Sat Apr 04 1998 15:19 - ID#224149)
Warning -- Leave the day trading to the pro-boys
TYoung  I know a trader in Newmarket that specializes in day trades ---He has a sophisticated program plus millions of dollars for back-up ----Beware of what you are up against ---His profits are usually 5 K a week ---Needless to say the Program is in-house.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 15:25 - ID#45173)
Lan Man: Money! They're given it away!
In the past few months I've gotten the following offers from credit card and loan companies:

$42,000 @ 9.2%
$24,280 @ 9.8%
$7,500 @ 9.9%
$5,000 @ 8.9%

The pitch they make is that I can consolodate my high interest credit card debt and make lower monthly payments. Seeing as how I don't have any credit card debt, this is none too appealing. I save these things because they are historical novelties. In a few years, no one will believe there was a time someone sent you offers of $42 grand at 9% without requiring any justification or collateral.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 15:32 - ID#224149)
better offers
EJ ---Just received a Mastercard offer for 50 k @ 7.9 % ---I could buy ten houses at 5% down ----Must be a lotta loose cash around ----The banks love to loan ----Away for another walk.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 15:33 - ID#373403)
Why do you assume that all goldbugs rode the POG down over the past few years? I buy gold all year long as I operate a custom jewelry store but as the POG fell under $300 at the end of last year I KNEW we were in bargain country so I stocked up. Every diamond I sell I buy another 10oz. bag of .999 gold casting shot instead of replacing the diamond.
When gold moves up I will repatriate the money into inventory.

I moved my wifes IRA into FDPMX. I did this January 5 and have profited quite nicely with more upside potential than the overpriced DOW.

Why must you deride those of us who have invested wisely in something which has stood firm while all other money has fallen? Are we all wrong? Is the EU wrong for backing their new money with gold?

You sound bitter, take it somewhere else.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 15:33 - ID#373403)
Why do you assume that all goldbugs rode the POG down over the past few years? I buy gold all year long as I operate a custom jewelry store but as the POG fell under $300 at the end of last year I KNEW we were in bargain country so I stocked up. Every diamond I sell I buy another 10oz. bag of .999 gold casting shot instead of replacing the diamond.
When gold moves up I will repatriate the money into inventory.

I moved my wifes IRA into FDPMX. I did this January 5 and have profited quite nicely with more upside potential than the overpriced DOW.

Why must you deride those of us who have invested wisely in something which has stood firm while all other money has fallen? Are we all wrong? Is the EU wrong for backing their new money with gold?

You sound bitter, take it somewhere else.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 15:37 - ID#411150)
..... Can't win this one, George. Let it die quietly .....


I took some losses on gold shorts. Again, big deal. The long silver and platinum has outperformed the short gold. The loss is negligible. I wonder why you, of all people, would stand on your shaky soapbox and point fingers?

NOBODY has a clue what will happen tomorrow in these markets. It is all a crap shoot to some extent. It becomes trickier when you trade both sides of the market. It does take a bit more acumen to day trade, quite apart from sitting at home and calling this a bottom for gold and the end of the Dow from 400 down and 6000 up.

Sooner or later you will be right George. Not yet, but someday. I'm sorry you don't like my arrogant writing style, much of which is an affectation for effect than anything else. Many at this forum, who have spoken with me personally, find my writing to be vastly different than my personal style. I'm pretty laid back and casual about all this stuff, quicker to laugh or joke, than to deconstruct the market with all sorts of charts and crystals and Fibonaccis and wedgies and heads and shoulders and all these things that are delved into endlessly and are still more or less wrong or right.

If all these things worked, why isn't everybody here rich? Because they are simply tools; when used correctly can add some comfort to a trade, but they tell you nothing of tomorrow.

I detail my trades on these pages. This comes with the necessity of standing by my calls or changing my name. I opt to accept the responsibility of my trades and will drag the bad ones out into the light to die an ugly, but not silent death. Others here do the same. APH, JD, D.A. and more don't hide when they made a wrong call, they say, "ooops" and move on.

You, however, have an anchor of mistaken calls around your neck which has dragged any credibility you may have ever had to the bottom where you can be the king of lumps on bumps on frogs on bumps on logs at the bottom of the sea.

Why don't you go back to the GSC moniker, and keep silent until everything goes to hell and gold goes to 10K? Then one post of "I told you so" should clue the world into your own particular brand of insight.


(Sat Apr 04 1998 15:39 - ID#200235)
@ ORIS a dollar by any name is a dollar OR is that a rose

I like all of your possible choices for the OPEC currency.

I do appreciate what you are saying, and it would be a huge

accom[plishment to get them to agree on anything .

However it is certainly in their best interest to persue a form of settlement other than US $.

Maybe we can get Henry Kissinger to explain it to them, I understand he is still running for Secretary of State.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 15:47 - ID#28594)
Oris--my friend there is NO GOVERNMENT DOCUMENT that can be summarized
in ONE word!
Scroll down to I. World Economic Outlook--
then down to Paragraph 3.--very first sentence--IMF, Committee of Twenty-four, etc., etc., are working on seamlessly introducing a
Tripolor currency system...
Hope this helps? {:- )

(Sat Apr 04 1998 15:48 - ID#359316)
OPEC currency---
Has anyone mentioned the new gold dinar?

(Sat Apr 04 1998 15:55 - ID#330175)
EB.......................................*go GOLD*
now we have voices~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Sat Apr 04 1998 15:55 - ID#31868)
SDR_er - sure there is -

(Sat Apr 04 1998 16:07 - ID#259400)
Bernatz, I am not often puzzled by what I see and hear but you have me puzzled. I can't tell if you have a good sense of humor that is just a few octaves off and winds up coming out off key or if you are really an unhappy person that seem to hate pretty much everyone on Kitco. I am basically a lurker with no more than a few posts every quarter but I do very much enjoy the wide variety of opinions that are posted on Kitco. Lately I find myself wishing that everyone else out there would just stop responding to your baiting so I wouldn't have to skip over so many posts. Now I find myself responding to you. Is it your intention to aggravate every last reader and poster on Kitco? If so you are succeeding. Having said that how about if all you other guys out there stop responding. Just think of the valuable time that could be saved for intelligent discussion.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 16:08 - ID#411150)
..... Lazlo .....

Regarding the upside risk of a short position:

Use buy stops.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 16:15 - ID#252127)

The transcript of the Conference Call by F. Veneroso will be posted by April 8 and the Canarc Resources web site.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 16:16 - ID#376309)
APH - Made some good comments. I would like to add to them. He said sell gold between 311.0 -313.0. Then later he said cancell 'if' market opens above target. I think that we will open above 312.0 on monday in gold with a target of 315.0-317 on monday or tuesday. If we open below 312.0 then the market may not make it and shorting at 312.0 may be good. I do NOT think it will happen but 'IF' we open lower on Monday that would be very bearish.

At first I was not that impressed with his work but everyone goes throught a HOT streak and right now he is HOT!!!!

Read what he has to say. An idea move to 315.0 with a chance to 340.0 and then all the way back down with the XAU going to 35!!! That would be AWSOME and would set the stage for a mind boggling rally there after!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 16:20 - ID#28594)
Oris, Trinovant, AUH20--

Folks, whilst we discuss, they DO...this meeting was in April 1997,
they are well along the way...check their meeting communiques! Were a little behind the curve, but catching up ...

If you check Mozels post from the first time slot of today, youll get a feeling for the timeline involved...

I. World Economic Outlook and Globalization
...therefore an urgent need ... to ensure that the transition to a TRIPOLAR CURRENCY system proceeds with... international coordination to minimize instability in the exchange and capital markets 

Trinovant@dinar Tripolar may well be a 'reaction' to dinar? At least
in the stages from 1992...Dinar is a moral force; tripolar is "business as usual"?

Tolerant1@"That.Word oh dear...

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sat Apr 04 1998 16:22 - ID#182192)
Hey, Bill2J, what a great name, are you a robot?
Already I can tell we are going to be the best of friends.
You say you can't figure me out - Either I am a lunatic
who doesn't fit in or I am a loser who doesn't fit in.
Not much room in your world for the possibility that
I am a normal person on a site where the abnormal
( like people with robot names whose first post is
unfriendly ) is accepted. As such, you can be sure
we won't be communicating in the future.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 16:23 - ID#20135)
OOoooops another mistake...
The e-mail address for ( ) cn't have a space included in it.

For all those that send me information to this incorrect address - I am terribly sorry.

Please resend to (>> ) . For those that haven't provided data we need it from around the world, please help - China, Japan, Australia, ...

I have tested this sending from a couple of other sites and addresses to verify it works correctly.

So far I have 2 submissions that I just happened to pickup on kitco.

aurator ( cum kilo salis )

1Lb table salt ( with iodine ) = NZ$0.358

chas Morganton, N.C.

4 major stores: range 33 cents to 35 cents/pd. Average is 33.75 c/ pd

my own

$0.265 per pound Cupertino CA USA

With this very small sampling:

1 USDollar in cupertino CA usa = 1.3509 NZ$
1 USdollar in Morganton, N.C. usa = 1.0607 NZ$
Using the yahoo currency converter

Sat Apr 4 2:35PM Eastern U.S. Time -- U.S. Markets Closed.
US Dollar Exchange Rate New Zealand Dollar
1 Apr 3 1.815871 1.82

1usdollar = 1.815871 NZdollars

A big difference!!!!!

So please lend a hand and send the price of 1 pound of salt in your loacal currency to ( ) . Include city, and country ( location ) .

SDRer please send me test e-mail --- for a triple check.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 16:24 - ID#376309)
I know I have not made many comments lately but gold has been boring. I'm so happy we are moving again, and UP no less too!

Voyeur Professor
(Sat Apr 04 1998 16:25 - ID#231101)
Old Gold

Old Gold at 14:03

Thank you for your cogently analyzed comments on gold. While you have proved premature in your calls for a bull market, most of us here have also been tripped by similar enthusiasm for a moribund gold market. But the past year has proved idiosyncratic and not sympathetic to rational analysis about gold fundamentals. The gold market, like the equity market, has stumped knowledgeable and seasoned professionals. Witness the continual funk suffered by men who should be able to recognize basic trends. Analysts like Michael Metz and Allen Ableson have had to endure the repudiation of their best calls on this bull market in equities. Frank Cochrane, a hedge fund manager, came on Nightly Business News last February ,when gold was still around $375, and told Paul Kangas that he was committing a major portion of his fund to gold. Stephen Leeb, the well-known author and publisher of the largest financial newsletter in the states has been touting the beginning of a gold bull for nearly six months now; and his book "The Agile Investor" devoted a chapter on the coming gold bonanza! One of the more ironic and disturbing aspects of this bull market resides in the fact that were one to ignore time-honored investment strategies, one would have profited by the equity run-up. Attention to irrationalities like outrageous PE ratios, diminishing profits, the explosion of M3, weak and unstable currencies throughout the worldthese and many, many other warning signshave proved irrelevant. Like our very culture that has undergone a widespread "dumbing down," investment has paradoxically rewarded those who merely leap into the bubble with impunity. If one cherishes prudence, one wears egg on his face; the day has belonged to the intemperate. Such a repudiation of the traditional values of careful investment strategies and the morality of thrift itself has dumbfounded those who wish to commit their professional and personal lives on behavior that transcends random and short-term appetites.

I have found your posts "defensible." That is all any of us can ever hope to achieve. Stay the course; ignore the predators! I for one am looking for a return of the old verities. We might be on the brink of a metamorphosis that will reward the prudent investor.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 16:25 - ID#266105)
@history become whatever whoever says it is

From Barron's Einhorn article:

Roach expects the CPI to surpass 3% this year. And while historically, 3% is benign,


Hysterically, 3% inflation was so alarming a rate
that it served inflection point for institution of wage
price controls in the Nixon administration.

Today, perhaps 3% inflation is viewed as benign.
Historical, no. Ms. Einhorn's facts are uncoordinated.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 16:27 - ID#20135)
Heaven help me. It is

Cnn is giving coverage to Islam Holly Days. Looks interesting, wonder if the Dinar and financial traditions will be discussed??? I believe a special is to on this weekend, anyone know for sure ??

(Sat Apr 04 1998 16:28 - ID#208393)
Time to Refocus
Please, enough bickering, name-calling and fingerpointing. It only wastes your energies and creates further animosity. Monday draws closer and it is time to refocus on the issues at hand. Namely, precious metals and their direction. Someone last week posted that you DO exert considerable influence on this market. Don't let this professionalism slide.

Forgive me as a newbee to this forum for speaking out. As a lurker I was impressed by the intelligence of the posts at this site. Today things have really deteriorated beyond control and it becomes impossible to to harvest the nuggets from the sludge.


The "Silicon Investor" site has a Bull/Bear graph which tracks the sentiments of the contributors in graph form compared to an index of Tech stocks. Amazingly enough, the group can actually predict the movement of the index by a short time period. Would it be possible to duplicate such a tool for this group?

Big Time Tom
(Sat Apr 04 1998 16:33 - ID#212320)
To Bart and John
Bart: I would hate to see John Hepcat get into any further trouble on my account, and, believe me, I was in no way offended when he called me "stupid." The fact is I kind of like the guy, despite his penchant for incoherent ranting. When I first kidded him about his statement that the short side of gold was "the place to be," I knew he would not take kindly to it. But as I said at the time, I just couldn't resist having some fun.

John: You wrote, "I will refrain from calling someone named Big Time Tom "stupid" when he criticizes me using a real name so that he becomes a real person . . .."

How about "Bernatz"? Would that qualify as a real name? Actually, "Tom" *is* my real name. I chose the handle "Big Time Tom" because I knew it would give my father, who knows how naive I am on financial matters, a big laugh. Incidentally, some of your own plays on my handle have been very clever indeed. The best, I thought, was when you referred to me awhile back as "Bib Time Tom." I still occasionally chuckle over that one!


(Sat Apr 04 1998 16:35 - ID#393224)
G'morning 
I made a million $$ last week on gold shares and nearly two million on calls...

...then I woke up ( dang it ) .

Getting niggly 'round here pardners!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 16:37 - ID#266105)

As surely as night follows and day night, boom and bust.
The cyclicalities of human affairs are simply a given.

'In finance, decay is more colorful than probity,
and the direction in the past decade has only served
to enhance the content of the narrative.'

- James Grant; Money of the Mind; 1992

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sat Apr 04 1998 16:44 - ID#182192)
BTT, I think you would be hard pressed to find
anyone on this channel who doesn't know who Bernatz
du Ventadorm is - in fact, on the other channel, they
are busy trying to locate my address once again, since
they have my real name. Sorry, but I had to go to
ground with this current handle to flush out John
Disney. I have asked that Bart restore my old one
but so far no results. Bart generally does just the
opposite of what I request, so maybe if I started
saying how much I wanted to keep this handle...

(Sat Apr 04 1998 16:47 - ID#270227)
To All
Sorry.....No bickering.....Just thought ya might like to read a seriouse observation of gold and the world markets.....Relax.....It's not even very long.


(Sat Apr 04 1998 16:50 - ID#287277)
Just rec'd this email--
From: Indobanking

"All legitimate depositors have the full protection of the Government's
guarantee. They have nothing to fear, their money is safe." This was the
clear message delivered today by Fuad Bawazier, Minister of Finance, as he announced the freezing of the operations of seven banks and the placement of a further seven banks under management control by BPPN ( otherwise known as IBRA - the Indonesian Bank Restructuring Agency ) .

A.Goose@SaltmMines.4.Us I've collected posts from SA and NL. Will forward 2 U. Great posts of Comex's Cupboard being bare! We may
break through the ....mmmm "stuff" yet! {:- ) )

(Sat Apr 04 1998 16:54 - ID#220325)
Bart-Thanks for the excellent site
Access has been very slow during the last few days, is this because the enquiries have exploded or is this a net problem? Keep up the good work.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 16:57 - ID#403234)
(2BR02B) Inflation
Last year ( 97-98 April - March ) Stats Canada supplied us with a figure 1.07% to add as inflation adjustment factor to contractor prices. Received figure of 2.9% to add this year.

To all: Certainly enjoyed watching the action the last couple of days.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 17:00 - ID#316200)
RJ:Regarding the upside risk of a short position:
Use buy stops.

OK, thanks for the tip, always a good idea.

I am still concerned with bad executions and lock limits.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 17:10 - ID#316200)
Silver and Soybeans
Anybody else ever notice an apparent correlation in years past?

(Sat Apr 04 1998 17:13 - ID#344308)

golden dreams--

(Sat Apr 04 1998 17:20 - ID#259400)
Bernatz, I did not express myself well earlier. The key phrase I was searching for and did not come up with was value added. When the Preacher speaks I would pay to listen. When Farfel * the unpronouncable spakes I read, am amused and if I filter out the chaff am informed. There are countless others that add value, some more, some less, but when I search your words I am left empty of any value added. All I come up with is the Polemic of someone who has far more education than common sense and sure as hell has some kind of axe to grind. CONTRIBUTE my friend CONTRIBUTE. Do not lessen. Do not demean. Add value.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 17:20 - ID#393224)
Gun shy.
Some of you have had the gun explode in your face so many times that you are now flinching and afraid to pull the trigger. We may be on the verge of a historic money making opportunity in precious metals--and still you sit, with your finger on the trigger. Do not ignore the warnings of APH, RJ etc. about the downside possibilities. Set stops in place to get you out with small losses if things don't work out. There is a chance that this thing is going to go through the roof. More likely it will be a zigzag up. Whatever the case, don't sit there flinching with your finger still on the trigger. Go ahead--pull it!!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 17:20 - ID#316200)
Gold and Gold
Hi Cherokee_A, Hope your protein Gold plays are doing as well
as the real thing.

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sat Apr 04 1998 17:25 - ID#182192)
Bill2j, my robot friend, is this what you mean?
Dow pulls back after topping 9000

NEW YORK - The Dow Jones industrial average surged above 9000 for
the first time Friday before pulling back to show a modest loss at the close.
Although the Dow did not hold on to finish above the historic mark, the
development marked a stunning comeback for a market barometer many
were about to write off after a historic stumble just five months ago.

The Dow rose as high as 9030.49 in early trading, but finished Friday
down 3.23 points at 8983.41. Trading was heavy and major broad-market
indexes rose to new highs, padding Thursday's record gains.

The Standard & Poor's 500-stock list rose 2.69 to 1122.70, the NYSE
composite index rose 1.04 to 583.08, the Nasdaq composite index advanced
2.44 to 1855.40, and the American Stock Exchange composite index rose
0.16 to 747.19.

Advancing issues narrowly outnumbered decliners on the New York Stock
Exchange, where volume totaled 649.11 million shares, vs. 669.17 million
in the previous session.

''I sit back in awe at the sheer power that this market has,'' said Russ
Labrasca, senior vice president at State Street Research in Boston. ''We've
come very far, very fast and that's because of the almost perfect balance
between inflation, interest rates and earnings.''

It wasn't that long ago that the outlook for the stock market was grim. The
Asian financial crisis sent the Dow plunging 554 points on Oct. 27, its
biggest one-day point drop ever. Many market watchers thought the end of
the bull market had come.

While the market climbed back from its depressed levels, it was a wild ride
and few expected 1998 to be another record-setting year. The Dow had
already climbed more than 20% for three consecutive years and fallout
from Asia was expected to subdue the party.

But after a shaky start in early January, the stock market's pace has hardly
slowed this year. Concerns over the impact of Asia's troubles have waned
in recent months and, while the U.S. economy remains strong, investors
remain confident that inflationary pressures aren't on the rise.

The latest evidence of a cooling off of inflation came Friday with the
Labor Department's report that the nation's unemployment rate inched up
to 4.7% from February's 24-year-low of 4.6%. That news sent bond prices
soaring and yields tumbling. The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury
bond fell to 5.79% from Thursday's 5.84%.

''We are back to an economy that is still perking along and not
overheating,'' said Steven Goldman, market strategist at Weeden & Co. in
Greenwich, Conn. ''This long economic recovery is rare, but all the
ingredients remain in place for a healthy market.''

The Dow, which is comprised of 30 blue-chip companies and is the oldest
and most widely followed Wall Street indicator, has climbed nearly 14%
this year and has doubled in less than three years. The rise toward 9000
comes eight months after the Dow first closed above 8000 on July 16,
1997. The blue-chip index fell below 7000 in late October, before staging
its comeback.

Helping propel the Dow higher has been a steady stream of money into
stocks from managers of mutual funds, such as retirement accounts. In
addition, international investors, especially those in Asia, have looked to
U.S. financial markets for growth opportunities.

''Cash is like a hot potato - no one wants to hold on to it too long,'' said
Alan Ackerman, senior vice president at Fahnestock & Co. ''No one wants
to be caught on the sidelines while the market keeps rising.''

(Sat Apr 04 1998 17:25 - ID#17796)
I can't day trade on a golf course and I work for a living at another trade. Appreciate the concern, it was more in jest than serious just in case our day traders cared to respond. Tom

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sat Apr 04 1998 17:28 - ID#182192)
I am struck by the lack of "irrational exhuberance" in that USA Today articale
A far different tone than some would ascribe to this rally.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 17:31 - ID#17796)
That's why I dump the Dow in january. Thank for the post. Tom

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sat Apr 04 1998 17:34 - ID#182192)
Bill2j, the improved model of Bill2i
Is this what you mean?:

Gold has crossed the 200 day reverse osmosis flash point
dot matrix definite buy signal generator which has only
been activated once before when we turned the machine

For silver, I see more of the same, only in greater
or lesser amplitudes, corrected for damping of
waves typical of this pattern. A definite "do something" here.

It's quantity, not quality, among SA gold stocks.
The story of the year is SA gold stocks, except
when the story of the year is the collapse of the
Japanese market, except when the story of the
year is the manipulation of the gold market.
I don't care, I'm buying more.
I don't care, I'm buying more.
I don't care, I'm buying more.

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sat Apr 04 1998 17:39 - ID#182192)
Bill2j, is this what you mean?
Hey all - I can't believe how much money I made
in gold and gold stocks at a time when it appeared
that gold was falling from over $400 to a low of
$277. Actually, this was just the prices they
told the general public. On my exchange, I made
lots of money, selling my gold back to myself
at ever increasing prices, and did I tell you
when it comes to actual profit, that whole thing
about gross and net is just economic artifice and
government manipulation, and that you subtract the
big number from the small number and drop the
silly dash in front and who cares if you have
to buy the cheaper brand, it's made by the same
company and it's all poisoned anyway.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 17:41 - ID#17796)
bernatz 17:34
Humor-thanks. Tom

(Sat Apr 04 1998 17:48 - ID#254112)
@GOLDEN CHEESHEAD (Ref: mozel's post from 1:15 am)
Lieber Herr Goldener Kaesekopf:

I thought you might like to be addressed that way. Do you?
Actually, I don't know anything about John Birch or any theory of conspiracy published by him.
The book which I have recommended is very well researched in it's historical parts and written like a suspense movie. It's focused on facts. ( G. Edward Griffin: The Creature of Jekyll Island, American Media,
1-800-595-6596, $19.50 ) .
Personally, I find the expression "conspiracy" for a project like the Federal Reserve System not adequate. I prefer mozel's characteristic, calling it "coup d'etat".

Don't miss mozel's post shortly after midnight today ( around 1:15 am ) .

Mit vorzueglicher Hochachtung

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sat Apr 04 1998 17:51 - ID#39971)

Gotta like that one.............

''Cash is like a hot potato - no one wants to hold on to it too long,'' said Alan Ackerman, senior vice president at Fahnestock & Co.

If your flux-capacitor capacitates to it's capacity,does it explode?Huh?

Voyeur Professor
(Sat Apr 04 1998 18:17 - ID#231101)
2BRO2B @ 16:32

I don't know Grant, but I have read Giordano Bruno, Giovanni Vico, Frederich Nietzsche, James Joyce, and William Butler Yeats-- all cyclical thinkers who inherited the ancient Greek mythological view of the so-called "ages of Man." Yeats' poem, "The Second Coming" begins:

"Turning and turning in the widening gyre,
The falcon cannot hear the falconer.
Things fall apart, the center cannot hold.
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world.
The blood-tide is loosed and everywhere,
The ceremony of innocence is drowned."

I am also fond of Groucho Marx's wonderful reproach to a stockbroker who was boasting at a yacht club shortly after the '29 crash. The broker effused, "Groucho, look at all those yachts out there, and every one of them belongs to a stockbroker!" Without any hesitatation Groucho shot back, "Really? And where the hell are their clients' yachts!"

(Sat Apr 04 1998 18:18 - ID#253153)
Gold Bull Market
A move in gold above $315 will confirm the bull market. The Xau has already broken on the upside. In the beginning of a gold bull market it's very healthy to have many negative opinions . Just plug your ears and don't listen to all the negatives being said about gold. As the runaway Deflation progresses the prices of gold and silver will soar as people seek something with "value" in it. The administration has "bad mouthed " both gold and silver too long. The public will no longer believe it. History is in the making . Our money will become fully convertible into gold ( with silver coins in circulation ) as the administration begin to realize that we are headed into a depression.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 18:29 - ID#22956)
Please accept my apologies. If you infer or assume that I meant every gold bug took losses riding POG down please accept my apologies. I have stated at Kitco MANY times during sub 300 prices that gold was a good buy and you should be buying the physical if that is what you are into. I do not deride anyone who buys physical gold and holds it for however long they want ( I do not always understand it though either, but I am learning ) . In your case it is a wise and prudent business decision and I, as a small biz owner ( the backbone of US in my opinion ) , respect you greatly for being in biz for yourself. I have a great understanding of buying low and selling high, cost of goods, balance sheets, P&L, etc. These things are the tools I use to manipulate and squeeze to 'stay alive' in the world of 'free enterprise' My hat is WAY off to you. Keep the faith. And my beef is not with you or anyone else but GSC. My disrespect is missplaced in you and many other gold-bugs of kitco. This is a fine collection of individuals....this Kitco. I have a HEALTHY bit of respect for countless individuals here. The quality and collection of knowledge amassed here is, at times, unparalleled. The main reason I 'tune-in' to Kitco is to learn and 'keep up' with the times. This Kitco, she tells me good and she tells me bad. I do believe that Governments should have a supply of gold, perhaps a percentage or something. I do not know the true answer and this is what is talked about at kitco. For various reasons we have countless theories of how much and why..... I have learned a great deal from all the commentary here. I think gold has VERY historical values and is a rather good insurance policy for MANY governments and for many individuals.

I congratulate you for your good play into the metal mutuals. I have been considering such a move for many months now. But, until now I have done nothing. There are plenty of other low priced stocks out there that have the same, if not better, potential as some gold funds. These gold funds and gold stocks are not so immune from a terrible crash that is so prophesized at these hallowed walls of Kitco. I am still trying to figure what would hold them back from pure collapse as well. It is my struggle and I am dealing with it.

Hold gold if you want. It is your decision not mine...good or bad. btw, I bought one Mountie from Bart today. Just one. It looks like a beautiful coin and I want to have one. I like the idea of limited quantity. Gold is good food. I am slowly getting hooked on the metals but my fancy is for Platinum mostly.

I have no beef with you missinglink. Just the opposite, I enjoy your participation in this group. A 'licensed' Economist is a good person to have on your 'team'.

George is my beef. He has consistently cheerleaded the same stuff here since I joined kitco. And now that the gold bull is FINALLY shaping up he has to call it his own and deride others who trade from both sides....who, btw, are now profiting on the way up. I have scratched my head for too long and I became confused when I saw his post mentioning my handle. Old has some good tihngs to say but he also says some REALLY BAD STUFF too. And I feel obligated to call him on it. Don't know why I just do.

And, as far as being bitter.....hmmmmmmmm. I am not. In fact I am happier than a pig in mud and the future is looking quite bright to me. I must wear darks shades sometimes..... ;- ) .

George - if you do not read any of my posts that is OK too. I will continue to read yours. Gotta keep you on the straight and narrow ya know.

Carry on troops...



(Sat Apr 04 1998 18:34 - ID#304282)
"Our money will become fully convertible into gold ( with silver coins in circulation ) as the administration begin to
realize that we are headed into a depression."

Why do you say that? I think the chance of our currency becoming convertable to gold and silver is nil. Only AFTER a severe and prolonged depression would our government even contemplate such a dramatic move. They certainly aren't prepared to do it now. It might rock the boat. All the government sees is DOW 9000 and goodtimes forever. We are in a new paradigm remember? No, our country will have to be conditioned for such a move. The conditioning is near though. I just think it is more likely we are being conditioned for a unified one-world currency, as promised in the Bible, than a currency on the gold standard. Who knows-maybe both.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 18:35 - ID#34857)
This thought seems strangely appropriate...
At times, at opposite extremes we stand
And shout across the [cyber] spaces, barely
Achieving more than sonic contact; there we
Exhort, expostulate, expound, expand,
Exhaust ourselves excelling one another
To kill our inconvenient [friendship] with
Unkindness, trying vainly to discover
The pitch to burst the solid [Kitco]
Of us ... And after all is said and all
Our words are broken hammers, we fall silent
And lie in silence where we fall: We fall
In [Kitco-love] again! You understand what I meant
And I at last interpret what you said
By hearing just the opposite instead.

 1979 Estate of Ray Blakely [as Modified by HenryD]

(Sat Apr 04 1998 18:38 - ID#411149)
Nick @ gun shy
DITTO DITTO DITTO DITTO..................
The train issa leavin the station!

Tally Ho

(Sat Apr 04 1998 18:45 - ID#253153)
Gold move--Tricky
The market has a way of discounting events ahead of time. The move in gold is the market perception of events to come. I suspect our currency will be fully convertible into gold sometimes in the years 2000-2003. This is the first step that our government has to take to get us out of the deflationary trend.When gold and silver increase in price in terms of the currencies of the world, then the fist step towards the next period of prosperity has been taken.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 18:55 - ID#266105)
@the delicate balance of nature

Back from a stroll with the kids and friends along the
beach. Missed a landslide of hundreds of tons of rock and
trees by a minute or two of forward progress, good show.
It does that alot, a rapidly changing coast. Part of the road
came down with this one. Then going back out, about 800
lbs. of Stellar sea lion was blocking the way up, bellering
and hissing. It was missing a front flipper, gaping flesh
and bones protruding. Killer or white maybe, possibly
ship screw/propellor. Hohum, go gold.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 18:58 - ID#340302)
You note that you are encouraged by gold's upward move, yet remain concerned about a possible CB gold sale.


I could care less about any announced CB gold sales...they are completely irrelevant to the future direction of the gold market.

It is the PURCHASE of a CB gold sale that is relevant. As long as those
purchases are made by other CB's ( as we are now discovering is the case ) , then why should any gold investor give a damn about any announced CB sales.

The entire focus on CB sales has been nothing more than a scam concocted by Wall Street Bulls ( aka gold shorts ) and various European CB's in order to scare gold investors into dumping their gold and re-directing their their monies into DOW/Nasdaq investments. I categorically have no doubt that there has been huge re-accumulation of gold at prices below 300 in advance of the impending new currency standard announcements. It is an amazing joke, really.

The next time you hear about an announced CB gold sale, then find out first who the buyer is before you get all nervous and sweaty. If the buyer turns out to be a fishermen's association in Newfoundland, then maybe some "concern" might be warranted.

If you are in a panic and want to sell your gold, hey I'll be happy because....



Barb Hughes
(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:04 - ID#20783)
A couple of months have passed-----tuned in to Kitco only to find****
EB and RJ are still teaming up to verbally abuse folks! Wonder if they are one in the same? ( alter egos etc. ) ----Doesn't anything ever change?----Would be nice!!!!!!!!!!!

AT Least the metals are pleasant. AND there seems to be alot of new and interresting personalities.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:05 - ID#190411)
Speaking only for myself, I do hope te CB's do one last fling at the goldbugs. I have real estate that I would like to grt as much Au for as possible. Don't leave the station yet, I don't have all of my baggage.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:08 - ID#266105)
@ms. Hughes

Say, if I recall correctly, you mentioned a possible interest
at around $308 up to $325 ( ? ) Still think so-- reply or position
statement not required, just curious.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:09 - ID#45173)
DA KLINE: thx for the URL to Privateer
Very interesting reading.

"The global paper currency system is very young. It depends for its continued functioning on the belief that the debt upon which it is based will, someday, be repaid."

My interpretation of history is that a national economic crisis begets a national political crisis. The political crisis pressures politicians into making bad economic decisions to protect national interests ( e.g., protectionism ) that have the effect of expanding their the national economic crisis into a multinational economic crisis. It's my sense that it that if it is possible that a collapse of the paper money system can occur in the near term, it may be triggered by Japan's need in a political crisis stemming from a financial crisis to call in loans to the USA, even if the negative impact on the USA will have severe consequences for the relationship between the two nations. I wonder what the US and Japan do to avoid this scenario?

Gold dust
(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:10 - ID#431206)
CB selling?
Does anyone think that 310 gold will trigger CB selling?
1 - strong selling
2 - mild selling
3 - no selling at all

(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:10 - ID#393224)
Mr. Ten percent
Anyone remember Mr. 10%?
He is the mythical investor who always waits for a 10% move from a bottom or top before buying or shorting a market. Mr. 10% never gets the exact highs or lows, but he is much more successful than the average investor. Occasionally a market will retrace more than 10% and resume its previous direction, but more often than not Mr. 10% does extremely well.

278 + 27.80 = 305.80.

Mr. 10% just bought gold!!!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:15 - ID#34857)
Gold dust (CB selling?) ... My vote: 3

(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:16 - ID#340302)
...apparently, unable to push the DOW above a 9000 close, CNBC is rumored to be ready to make a startling announcement tomorrow... seems the master of all telethons, JERRY LEWIS himself, will be hired by the network Monday to take over from Ron Insana and use his decades of fundraising skills to extract enough monies from DOW investors to push the DOW well over 9000.

Apparently, CNBC determined that a more humorous approach along with some
terrific variety performances ( Norm Crosby with his spoonerisms; Charo's broken english while wiggling her tush and titties; Don Rickles lobbing insults at Dow CEO's, etc. ) will be the key to achieving a DOW 9000 close.

Furthermore, the network feels confident that when Jerry breaks into his
off-key rendition of, "YOU'LL NEVER WALK ALONE," DOW investors will be so choked up that they will go out and get another home mortgage and remit the monies toward the cause, i.e., achieving the DOW 9000.

At least that's the rumor I am hearing.


(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:16 - ID#224149)
And The Earth Stood Still
The life And Times ---May I Confess --Eb Thee new book -----Next The Bible----Oh My---

(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:19 - ID#340302)
...does anybody give a damn?

Not this fella.


(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:23 - ID#373288)
At this point in history, the Central Banks will not sell,
if they put the entire amount of gold they supposedly have, on the market for sale it would disappear in no time at all into private hands.

Oh my darlin, oh my darlin, oh my darlin paradigm.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:26 - ID#340302)
@GOLD DUST...get with the New Paradigm, man!
Wall Street no longer really cares about any of the negatives, e.g., astronomical P/E's, destruction of the Asian economy and its effects on U.S.A., potential impeachment of the Prez, etc.

So, why should you worry about some inconsequential little negative like CB sales as it pertains to the price of gold?


Gold's moving up...THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND.

Gold XAU has outperformed the DOW so far this year...IT'S A NEW PARADIGM!



(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:32 - ID#368244)
Give gold
My employees, friends, and family will receive their gifts and bonuses in gold this year. Most people have never touched a pure gold coin, never seen the beauty of that sparkle, or the way the suns rays dance off its golden face.

I know that they will show it to their friends, and they also will be amazed at the raw beauty of a gift that will last forever. I will carefully explain about it's unique qualities. I will tell them that the coin they hold may have been minted from gold that was held in the hands of Kings or ancient rulers.

Physical moves markets, let's do our part to make it move. If the 'little guy' gets in this market, look out. And guess what ?? We have 5000 years of history to back us up. WE have the power.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:36 - ID#22956)
so say I...let it be...make it so...carry on... change my water ( glass ) to wine ( glass ) ...after all it's happy hour.

akaRJ...I think you are on to something Barb... ( not ) ...uh huh. Welcome back.

has everyone bought their mounties??

(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:36 - ID#224149)
So Be It. ---
Farfel---Dow 12880 Why oh why have you left us? Please come back ----And let the band play.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:43 - ID#368244)
Hi Barb

Glad to see your still checking in.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:44 - ID#373288)
Isure - just an idea from someone who gives away a bunch
of the stuff. If you have any smaller denominations of junk silver or smaller gold rounds, depending on the value/importance of the bonus/gift,
find some small leather pouches like in the days of old. Place said coins into the pouchs. In additon, small velvet pouches which come in a variety of colors add a nice touch for the ladies.

People love it. The younger s m alls turn into little versions of Robin Hood and Maid Marian. Come to think of it, so do the adults.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:47 - ID#340302)
@The populist attitudes truly are changing...
At a little fashion show this afternoon, I am truly amazed how easy it is today to frighten mutual fund equities bulls. All it takes is the calm presentation of old-fashioned, cold logic. Their complacency seems to rest on one weak foundation...they socialize primarily with other equities/bonds bulls and have little if any exposure to an articulate, compelling bearish point of view. They are like ostriches with their heads in the sand. However, once they access the irrefutable arguments of precious metals exponents, then it is truly something to witness the wheels turning in their brains. More often than not, the concentrated looks upon their faces transmute to palpable fear.

I truly believe that goldbugs are the strongest sector of the population today. Wall Street and the gold shorts made one major error in their strategy to de-index gold monies into the DOW/Nasdaq darlings. They simply cried "WOLF!" one time too many...and the wolf never appeared at the door.

Having been through fire, gold investors are now inured to the scare tactics of Wall Street and the gold shorts.

But, what will happen when the wolf shows up at the complacent DOW investor's door? Hmmmmm?


Bully Beef
(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:48 - ID#259282)
National Enquirer reports aliens are buying up all the gold.
Caused a 5.90 run up on Fri. Get yours now!!! Remember when the rich figure out that sh*t has value we po folk won't have none of it neither.Enquiring minds want to...No?

(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:50 - ID#340302)
@POORBOYS...I can't believe you are an equities bear now....
DOW falling to, you are pessimistic.


(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:52 - ID#224149)
The Night has No More Eyes -*Go Gold * (Right Ted)
Water to Wine ---Barb to Bob ---Wire to Net Knitting ---The night is bright ---EB Book Writing Ted Un walking Yes Saturday Night is for Fighting ---Elton John.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 19:55 - ID#60253)

I do try and go back to complete where we left off. This question was offered for thought:

" Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 23:31 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:

All: I ask you, why did the world go off the gold standard in the early 70s? You have an answer, yes? For all the problems this created, could the countries not just revalue gold upward, to say $300 ( back then ) ? What was the real reason the world entered a period of "freely traded" "managed gold"? "

This question has more impact on the gold market of today than it did then! In days past, it was held as good knowledge that the US stopped gold backing to protect the dollar and keep gold from leaving to other shores.

But, in the same time frame, all central banks did sell gold to all persons, even the US. All treasuries held gold and dollars as reserves. To what end did the world financial system gain with the dollar off gold backing, and then allowed to "dirty float" against all currencies? Would the world not have been better off to find gold revalued to, say $300 and then begin a "dirty float"? Noone would have lost, and the inflation would have , at best, not have been worse!

Truly, I tell the reason for this action. The US oil companies knew that the cheap reserves were found. The governments knew this also. The only low cost oil reserves in the world at this time were in the Middle East, and their cost to find and produce was very low. It was known, that, in time, ALL oil would come from this land. As much higher US dollar prices were needed to allow exploration and production of other reserves, worldwide. But, how to get crude prices, up, when the Gulf States were OK to pump and produce in exchange for "gold backed dollars"? I will not name the gentlemen that brought this thinking to the surface in that era, but it was discussed. It was known that oil liked gold. It was known that "local oil" would be used up without higher prices. What if, the US dollar was taken off the gold standard, and gold was managed "upward" to say, $208 per ounce? The dynamics of the market would force oil to rise and allow for much needed capital to search for the higher priced oil that was known to exist! The producers would find shelter in gold even as the price of oil was increased in terms of a now "non gold dollar"! Price inflation would rise, but gold and oil would also increase. The dollar would continue to be used as the only payment for oil, and in doing so replace gold as the backing for this "reserve currency". All would be fair.

The war in 1973 and the Iran problem did make markets "overshoot", but all did work to the correct end. The result was "a needed higher price for a commodity that was, as reserves, in much over supply by the wrong countries"! It was known that the public would never have accepted this "proposition" as fair. To this end, we have come.

And it is from this end, that the gold markets are managed for today! I do now take you to my post to Junior:

Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 23:58 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:

" You state: "The USA/IMF and its'Hegemoney currency could not withstand cheap oil prices." ?

" Mr. Junior,

Be very sure to understand this: They can "stand cheap oil prices". But, it is the loss of having the US$ removed as the "world reserve currency" that makes them "fight" a lower oil price, and the new "world oil currency" that it would bring. Bring this thought into focus and you will understand why Iran and Iraq did fight so long. And why Iraq invaded. The warships are an attempt to keep prices from "falling"! You think long and hard on this! "


Look now and see if the US dollar does not "fight" for a high oil price! In every way, the question of supply disruptions is shown as the need for other suppliers. But, other suppliers cannot produce at a lower price? If the gulf states are allowed to bring oil "down" to it's true "fair" production price, in terms of a "correctly higher revalued" gold price, the US dollar would no longer be priced and backed by oil. Any paper trading currency would do. I would say, "if the Euro is strong in gold, and crude oil is allowed to be devalued by gold at $10,000 to $30,000, then all other paper currency reserves held against the EURO would be , "for show?"

"The world is going off the dollar standard as the dollar is going off the oil standard ", find this event "in your time"! We watch this new gold market, together, yes?

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:00 - ID#288140)
Is my favorite restaurant still over there near the corner of Lincoln and Santa Monica?

BTW I Don't Care... Yesterday, as I said I would, I Bought More, gold and SA mining shares. IDCIBM

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:01 - ID#399119)
@ALL, & BART, RE: BERNATZ, I'm tired of this child,
I wish to point out the discussion group guidelines we all must have read and tacitly agreed to, by posting here. Please, All, re-read the "THINGS TO AVOID" points # 3 & 4, then "the final guideline: "What to do when somebody breaks the "DONT" rules; IGNORE THE REMARKS". I vote to "SHUN" this non-contributor in the Pennsylvania Dutch, & Mennonites manner, make him invisible, his posts do not exist to me any longer. I suggest those in agreement, do the same.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:01 - ID#432157)
To ALL & Bart

Dear God

I love this site .TV is killing me because they don't talk about GOLD.
Or what is going on with GOLD.

Another post are very very interesting. Can't explain why.

It's time to get physical ( GOLD ) that is.

Good luck this is more fun than a cat house on pay night.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:08 - ID#348127)
MY 2 

Lets see, we are at 308 and 6.60 with good news at home and bad news abroad.

If Japan worsens this week -Gold goes to 330 and silver to 7.10
If bad news hits home - Gold goes to 340 and silver to 7.25

If both happen this week look for spikes to 350 and 7.40.

There is also the wild card - If NASA shows a clear image of Cydonia on Monday we could have CHAOS

My gut is that the week will close at 322 and 7.30. Have I ever been wrong before.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:09 - ID#224149)
Let The Uninformed see
A why do you understand the complexity? Please post more so Vronsky may understand.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:11 - ID#189273)
Good evening.
I haven't a clue what you mean by NASA et Cydonia. A joke, perhaps?

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:13 - ID#189273)
That's Good Evening, Mapleman. Better reboot my brain.

Bully Beef
(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:16 - ID#259282)
One US Dollar exchanged for gold or "In God we trust...."
All others pay cash ( or Oil ) .

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:18 - ID#42365)
hrmm Is this why noone ever responds to me?? ": )

-paper makes dollas but it dont make sense...

Bully Beef
(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:22 - ID#259282)
acknowledged G-nutz
You exist. Gold even at 310 would be sweet...but 330 would be a shock to the system. Give it to me Doctor ...I CAN TAKE IT!!!!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:22 - ID#266105)
@cydonia: good food but no atmosphere

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:23 - ID#189273)
Why? Have you been flaming people?

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:26 - ID#238295)
Voyeur professor: Thanks for your support!

RJ: There you go again! Arrogant and cocksure of yourself. You just know I and all the other bulls like Frank Venneroso are wrong. Not that we might be wrong but that we are wrong. I would have thought yesterday's rally would have tought you the value of at least a little humility, but apparently it has not.

I have no problem with the bear case; I do have a problem with bears like you who are oh so sure of yourself. You seem to consider yourself a kind of financial god making pronouncements from on high. Just like Andy Smith. You are headed for a fall and a bad one.

Jack; Thanks for the Canarc URL!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:29 - ID#344308)


cydonia is the location ( not on earth ) of 'THE FACE'
if i'm not mistaken...the face of
ANOTHER homo sapien ( look alike ) .....
the pictures were taken by nasa
years ago.....there is also a non-natural
crystalline structure that has a lot of
researchers baffled.....

a high ranking ex-employee with nasa--dr hoagland--- has
been pursuing these un-natural discoveries since their discovery...
run a search on his work and......... read on dude.

it's fascinating.......and he more than credible....his
credentials are impeccable.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:29 - ID#288140)
Yes, another interesting post, what is really fascinating is the flurry of impassioned posts that always follows.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:30 - ID#288140)
It's good to be reading you again.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:36 - ID#189273)
You mention chaos alot. Something very much on my mind of late. Been reading up on the science of chaos lately. Do you consider it in your technical work? Did this discussion group ever discuss it in depth? I've only been reading about 6 months now.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:37 - ID#238295)
Farfel: Your posts are the best antidote to the constant barrage of bearish pronouncements from RJ, EB and other shorts. Keep em coming!.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:38 - ID#42365)
Tricky: one world currency? as y2k aproaches ( if it is an event or non event is the question ) the media is sure to catch wind one day. if it is a non event possibly that scenario may pan out. HOWEVER, if y2k is a problem, then there may be a large distrust in computers in general by the sheep. And as one knows, this world currency would have to be electronic right? or is it GOLD? hehehe bahhh nuff of muh ramblinz...

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:42 - ID#60253)

Date: Tue Mar 31 1998 09:58

Allen ( USA ) ( ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ) ID#246224

" So the Euro will be an alternative to this? Its creators must have known that this 'inflation' of the USA and LBMA markets was not liked by oil. When was this recognized? Was this at the time of the Gulf War ( as you have implied in the past ) ? How was it recognized or communicated to Europe? Certainly the Euro has been built with this 'market' in mind? "


The link to my writing was broken during our discussion. Some items were lost. I do now understand your thoughts. I will now reply, "as able, over time".

The Gulf War was the last insult! It was viewed as an attempt to show an "unstable area", but the war itself was not intentional, events were "out of control".

We must grasp that all commerce is done, at least, in the US dollar concept of "valuations of real things". In this way, " the true value of the purchase of real money" is hidden from view! Persons will say in the future, "how could gold be $500 one day and $5,000 the next"? I tell you now, it is already past that level, as in "present reserve currency dealings" it is not seen! Consider, that in all that you do and think, your "western values" are of paper concepts. From your birth, real things are not used to cross value themselves! When the battle to keep gold from devaluing oil ( in direct gold for oil terms ) is lost, the dollar will find "no problem" with $30,000 gold, as it will be seen as a "benefit for all" and "why did noone see this sooner"?

Thank you

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:50 - ID#42365)
Tricky: one world currency? as y2k aproaches ( if it is an event or non event is the question ) the media is sure to catch wind one day. if it is a non event possibly that scenario may pan out. HOWEVER, if y2k is a problem, then there may be a large distrust in computers in general by the sheep. And as one knows, this world currency would have to be electronic right? or is it GOLD? hehehe bahhh nuff of muh ramblinz...

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:50 - ID#26793)
Impact of the XAU/Spot Ratio strategy on the 1987 crash
Someone asked the other day about the behavior of gold stocks during the '87 crash. Using the strategy I mentioned the other day, sell half your XAU or XAU proxy position when the XAU/Spot Ratio reaches .300 and the second half when it reaches .320 you would have had the following results:

8/3/87 XAU/Spot Ratio .306 ( XAU 145.76, Spot 477.10 ) sell half
9/2/87 XAU/Spot Ratio .323 ( XAU 150.13, Spot 465.30 ) Sell 2nd half
You are fully in cash on 9/3/87

10/20/87 XAU/Spot Ratio .207 ( XAU 96.07, Spot 463.20 ) buy back half
10/26/87 XAU/Spot Ratio .194 ( XAU 92.29, Spot 476.20 ) buy second half
You are fully in XAU or XAU proxy

That position can be maintained under the strategy "rules" until:
1/2/90 XAU/Spot Ratio .306 ( XAU 122.00, Spot 399.60 ) Sell half position
1/29/90 XAU/Spot Ratio .325 ( XAU 136.27, Spot 419.10 ) Sell 2nd half
You are back fully in cash.

That is a far as I have the data back tested.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:51 - ID#45173)
mapleman: predictions
You may be right. What surprises me is that gold moves so little with the bad news that's out there. If this were 1975 and the CEO of Sony told the world he thinks the Japanese economy will collapse if the gov't doesn't take action, you'd expect more than a $5.90 move. But a lot of folks got into gold at $700 and up and got burned. Once burned, twice shy? Just another theory...

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:53 - ID#348295)
I have not posted since going short 5 months ago.
No need to brag with all you long goldbugs.
But, since closing all short positions week before
last, I feel the urge to comment on a situation that
I see about to change totally.
Having talked with many of my relatives who make their
primary living from the markets, the consensus is that
we are at the beginning of a huge upmove.
Much backing and filling of course, but just sit back and watch.
If you happen to be short, set your phone speed-dialer to your
nearest pawn shop, or shops !!!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:53 - ID#348295)
I have not posted since going short 5 months ago.
No need to brag with all you long goldbugs.
But, since closing all short positions week before
last, I feel the urge to comment on a situation that
I see about to change totally.
Having talked with many of my relatives who make their
primary living from the markets, the consensus is that
we are at the beginning of a huge upmove.
Much backing and filling of course, but just sit back and watch.
If you happen to be short, set your phone speed-dialer to your
nearest pawn shop, or shops !!!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:56 - ID#42365)
Hoagland and areas of that nature are featured on usually... lotsa crazy stuff on there, but alot is very interesting...

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:56 - ID#340302)
@OLD GOLD...thanks, I appreciate many of your observations...
...pertaining to gold. You seem to possess a great deal of fundamental common sense. Unfortunately, in the '90's, wisdom seems to be "out of vogue." I am hopeful it will return again.


(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:57 - ID#284255)
How can this be?

How can they reprice gold to $30,000?
When companies can produce millions of ounces each year.

Even small companies which are presently valued at a few million are producing 50,000 ounces a year.

$30,000 gold would create a gold rush the likes of what we have never seen before.

Everyone with gold jewelry would sell and demand would implode.
Everyone would want to find and sell.

But no one would buy at that level.

Methinks gold at $30,000 would kill the industry.

Too much, Too high, Too fast.

Not in my lifetime.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 20:59 - ID#331205)
RSA gold and foreign reserves increasing.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:00 - ID#344308)


i introduced the subject last year. my source...

'chaos' making a new science----by james gleick

only re-inforced my lifes experiences. chaos and
flux always are front and center in my considerations
with ANYTHING. i worked off-shore during the 70's and
got caught on a 400' pipe-line barge when hurricane allen
entered the gulf. the ground swells were 12' plus even
when the the 'caine was 600 miles away. no helicopters
could land to evacuate the personnel ( too rough ) ..we were too far
from land for any ships to arrive before the storm hit...
nobody knew how powerful it would become...or where
it was going....talking about chaos and flux! 350 men
trapped in the gulf of mexico, on a 400' match-stick,
with the biggest ( size ) hurricane in history closing in.
we had chubbies in reverse!! the tug-boat tenders eventually
were able to move our vessel into the bay of campeche in mexico...
one hell of a ride.....

yes, chaos and flux are the REAL determinent factors for all of our lives...
just most of the time, you never know 'they'--the hurricane-- are around..until the storm surge washes you and yours away....

look at gold.......chaos and flux are the reason, she has been a-pleasing, us all lately...the cyclic demands of the carbo-earth-anouts
are made so, by chaos and flux....i assure you, they be amux us all..
prepare and be a man.......or follow the peopleo.......the cliff awaits.

cherokee!; ) ..back-from-the-left-coast.....with-the-truth----ciafwpbbw.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:01 - ID#348127)
Cydonia is a region on Mars where an ancient civilization leftb their mark. Nasa photos back in 1972 showed pyramids and a huge face sculpture. My point was simply that if by chance NASA decided to come clean and reveal photos proving life exist or existed elsewhere there would be serious ramifacations. I dont think they will release the truth on Monday but it's coming out soon.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:05 - ID#255217)
@ Murrstein
I'm not quite sure how to take your message. I think you must mean a coming move UP in the PM's, since we have been having a huge move up in the Dow. And the reference to pawn shops must mean you might need to buy PM's from them to cover your short positions in the PM markets. Do I read you correctly? I'm kinda slow on the cryptic stuff.

Are your relatives pretty savvy???

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:08 - ID#284255)
Faces and places on Mars revisited
Urls for Mars face viewing:

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:12 - ID#373288)
sharefin - a detail in $30,000.00
You are assuming the dollar is still worth anywhere near its current value.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:14 - ID#284255)
Chaos and Cherokee - spinning through the vortex
Heaps of links and articles:

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:15 - ID#183109)
RANGY-ZIP............and POORBOY comment
RANGY-ZIP file: To all who requested a copy of the 80+ Randgold Articles Ive zipped into a file ready for emailing, it should now be in your inbox. If it doesnt show in a day or so, depending on your ISP, then let me know and Ill resend. Anyone who missed my first offer and is interested in these articles to do your own research on RANGY, feel free to send me a request at> and please put RANGY-ZIP in the subject. And just to reiterate, these are all articles that I felt were worth saving after sorting through hundreds of randgold hits I found on the net. Thanks for all the kind words attached to the many requests. Im glad to help contribute to our Kitco community.

POORBOYS, if nobody cares about S.A. gold shares, then why is my inbox overflowing, and why are the daily volumes and prices of S.A shares blasting off? After reviewing a dozen or so of your kitco posts, it seems you never have anything benefical for the group. Youre only comments are your constant badgering of pro-S.A posts. Instead of being a useless whiner, why dont you contribute something positive to the group? If you have some personal hangup on putting your money in S.A., so be itto each his own. But instead, how about some constructive dialog where you tell use the best places for our money. Id recommend you buy as much S.A stuff as you can, and then when you sell it down the road for a ten bagger, you can opt to donate all your profits to the S.A charity of your chose.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:18 - ID#288369)
@Mashed potatoes, yea....
If gold goes to $30,000./oz...I'm one toothless bastard. I'll learn to live on grits and "viennie" sausages.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:18 - ID#183109)
a posting worksheet for POORBUYS.
Heres an outline you may consider using.

Dear Kitcovites,
My name is POORBUYs, and I refuse to tolerate any mention of S.A mining on MY Kitco thread. Due to my personal beliefs, I refuse to put any money in S.A. stocks, and am thus appauled by anyone with views other than my own. Instead, I prefer to invest in the continent of _______. The reason I like the company _______ so much is ______ and ______ and _______. They have production of ______ per year, with an anticipated increase to _____ ounces by the year ______. Their present reserves are _______, with resources of _______. Their symbol is _______ and they are traded on the _______ exchanges. Their recent low was _____ and their recent high was ______, with their 52 week high being ______, and their 52 week low being _____. A very useful website mentioning ________ can be found at They currently have _____ geologists exploring in ______ countries, and have _____ prospects located throughout ______. Their current cost of production is ______, with an anticipated drop to the ______ level by the year ______. At their _____ mine located in _____, they are employing new technology to massively lower production costs to _____. I have spent over a hundred hours researching ________ company, and think it is really getting ready to move. I have included all of my research in a detailed report that can be found at the following web site : ___________. The __________ train is leaving the station. All aboard!!! This, IMO, is THE best stock to buy, and I am thus putting my money where my BIG mouth is.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:19 - ID#45173)
tolerant1: this implies hyperinflation
on the order of, what, 1000% annual or more? I don't understand how this can happen. Can you fill me in? Thx.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:25 - ID#17796)
tolerant1 12:12
Seeing with your minds eye-interesting. Tom BBl, off to the wife & kids

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:28 - ID#373288)
EJ -
It was just a comment, no more, no less. It can never happen here, right.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:30 - ID#253153)
Gold Rise Projection
First phase--1972--1974----- $35--175----- 5 times
Second phase--1976--1980---$100--850---- 8.5 times
Third Phase ---1998- ? --- 280--- ?
I suspect the third phase will be a minimum of 10 times the second
phase which implies $ 2800 +

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:30 - ID#411259)
..... Looky here boys and girls ....

Lazlo -

Not such thing as a bad fill or getting locked out of the cash market.


I told you to let it die George You wanna' play? Say hello to my little friend

Its called cut and paste. For each post you make, I will respond with 2 of your old posts ( I got 'em all ) . I will pick blindly as ALL were completely and irrevocably wrong. You cannot win this George..

Let it go.

Barbie -

The cut and paste works for you too. Your initial posts to me were extremely hostile. You went on the attack immediately and when you tripped up again and again, you disappeared. Should you wish to proudly display your new angles wings, fine, but if you flap them in my face perhaps a bit of your prior blatherings to temper this fine and holy visage you now present.

To the rest -

I am not a bear, I am a whore. I will trade any side that makes money.

When called to task for the words they write, the response is usually to change the subject. Perhaps it is arrogance to take a stance and stand by it, right or wrong. The polite and gentile will whisper their heartfelt encouragements to each other, and gladly join in the delusion that anyone actually listens. And when the cumulative total of their written wisdom here adds up to zero, they will change their names and shout from the bushes.


(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:34 - ID#284255)
Not the $US
Regardless of whether you are talking of the value of the $US or the $OZ or the $Can or any other currency.

I think that gold to such a level will remove it from the desire of many.
At those levels you would love to have it to sell but not to have to buy it.

My question was more -
What of the effect on the miners of gold?

How would you value a company who produces,
More than a million oz per year.
And who could afford to buy that much gold.

1,000,000oz x $30,000 = $30,000,000,000 p.a.
That's $30 billion p.a.

I just can't see who the buyers would be.
I know I would love to be one of the sellers though.

It's sort of like drinking wine.
I'll pay the fair value of wine to drink it every night.
Once a week I'll pay double the value for the pleasure.
Once a year I might go for the top shelf.

But to drink from the top shelf at the highest of prices.
Is beyond my means and the means of most.

Nice to buy the most important girl in the world a $1000 necklace.
But @ $100,000
I might need to get a second job.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:38 - ID#45173)
tolerant1: sharefin makes a good point about ANOTHER'S
$10k - $30k gold price prediction. You make a good point that we'll be talking about year 2005 or 2010 dollars. A huge jump in the price of oil will put tremendous inflationary pressure on the dollar. Other than oil, what might cause such inflation to get gold up to the prices ANOTHER is talking about? I have a lot of respect for your and ANOTHER's opinions. I'm just trying to fill in the blanks in my understanding. I appreciate your help.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:41 - ID#340302)
April 5, 1998

The Bull That Devoured the Cash Position


Cash is trash. At least it is in mutual funds these days. Managers of stock mutual funds are keeping less cash on hand than at any time in the last two decades. The prevailing belief is that it is simply wrong for a stock fund manager to ever have much cash sitting around.

That attitude worked in the quarter just ended. Those few fund managers with a lot of cash -- most notably Foster S. Friess, the veteran manager of the Brandywine Fund -- paid dearly in lost performance and redemptions.

The Brandywine Fund turned in a total return of 2.85 percent for the quarter -- ranking it dead last among diversified United States equity funds with assets of more than $1 billion. The problem was that its cash position rose to above 75 percent at one point, although stock purchases have since cut that to a bit above 40 percent.

Friess said he was concerned that many of the stocks in which his fund specializes -- mid-capitalization growth stocks -- would see their profits damaged by Asia's economic woes. So far, he seems to be right about many of the profit reports -- but quite wrong about the market reaction.

In the first quarter of 1998, almost every kind of stock went up, whether small or large, growth or value, Asian, European or American. And by and large, bond investors also made money.

The average stock fund gained 11.2 percent in the quarter. The best performers were generally communications funds, which benefited
from merger mania and from a hope that local phone companies would soon
get into the long-distance business. The average return from such funds was 21.2 percent.

Not surprisingly, the worst strategy was to be overtly bearish. Stock funds that chose it dominated the list of worst performers. Otherwise, real estate funds suffered most, returning just 0.2 percent for the quarter. Some real estate investment trusts fell on the news that a tax break was under attack; others just slipped as investors sought more adventurous investments.

Across virtually the entire spectrum, stock-fund managers tried to avoid having cash on hand. Some cash is inevitable, of course, because dividends and new investments from shareholders arrive all the time.

But by the end of February, the latest figures available, cash accounted for just 4.6 percent of domestic stock-fund assets. Not since 1976 have fund managers shown as great an aversion to cash.

Historically, such low levels have been a sign of complacency, and a warning of bad times ahead. But many believe that this era is different -- and that low cash levels simply acknowledge that a stock fund manager's job is to pick stocks, not to invest in other types of assets.

That is not a belief that Friess, who turned 58 last week, happens to share. "Our mission is to protect and grow assets," he said in an interview. "It has never been to own stocks, regardless."

Over the years, the Brandywine Fund, which has earned more than 19 percent a year, compounded, for the last decade, has gone heavily into cash when Friess could not find stocks that met his criteria.

Such moves always raise questions, but the volume of opposition has been far greater this time, Friess said. "We have a number of people who are saying: 'We are not paying you to make an asset allocation decision. We're paying you to buy stocks,' " he said.

One shareholder, in a letter to Friess, pointed to the profits already missed by going into cash. "I am much readier," he wrote, "to take my chances with the fund's selection of worthwhile companies than with a policy of sitting on the sidelines which, from my perspective, involves greater risk."

To be sure, some shareholders have praised Friess, complimenting him for using his judgment. But critics have been more vocal.

Years ago, money managers were expected to use their professional judgment to choose the best investments from the wide array available. Now, more and more, they are perceived as being hired to do a specific, narrowly defined job.

They are to choose small-growth stocks, or large-value stocks, or corporate bonds, or whatever. If the manager of a large-value stock portfolio thinks there are better values in another sector, well, that is just too bad.

Only very limited excursions outside of the mandate are allowed, and the manager can expect to be pilloried if those excursions do not work out.

That change has come with the growing belief that it is folly to try to time markets, and that investing on dips is always wise. Whether that attitude will survive the next sustained bear market -- whenever it comes -- remains to be seen. But for now, it is a powerful force.

Corollary of that attitude is that it is relative performance, not absolute performance, that counts. If your fund outperforms similar funds, then you deserve accolades, regardless of whether your fund made money or outstripped the relevant index.

"People tell us, 'If your mid-cap sector goes down 20 percent, and you go down 18 percent, that's all right.' " Friess said. "Well I've got my high school basketball coach in the fund, and I don't want him down 18 percent.

"People went through 1987," he added, "and there is this idea that if you just keep buying on the dips, you'll make money."

In the old days, the level of cash in mutual fund portfolios was a good contrary indicator of what would happen to the stock market. When fund managers had very little cash on hand, that was often a very bad time to own stocks. And high cash levels were a sign of excessive fears.

As recently as 1990, when the stock market fell sharply, albeit to recover within months, mutual funds that invested primarily in American stocks bolstered their cash levels to as high as 13.1 percent of assets. But since then, high cash levels have gradually gone out of fashion.

That was shown last October, a month when stock prices plunged -- and United States stock mutual funds ended the month with less cash than they had begun it with.

The Investment Company Institute, a trade group, has cash figures back to 1968 for all stock mutual funds, although breakouts for domestic, as opposed to international funds, are available only since 1984. ( International funds were previously relatively small and had little impact on the overall statistics. )

Before the autumn of 1996, there were only 36 months when cash was below 6 percent, the most recent having been January 1977. The 6 percent level had obtained a reputation as a warning sign of bad times.

During the two years after cash fell so low, the Standard & Poor's 500 generally declined, and never rose a lot. The best performance was a 14.9 percent gain in the two years after a cash reading of 4.7 percent at the end of October 1971.

But that was then. This is a new era, or at least Wall Street sees it that way The cash level in domestic stock funds fell below 6 percent in November 1996, and has remained well below that ever since, while the S&P index has soared by about 50 percent.

At the Brandywine Fund, Friess said it wasn't so much that he was bearish as that he and his analysts had been having a lot of trouble finding stocks that met the selection criteria he has used for decades.

These criteria are threefold. First, rapid earnings growth. Second, less-than-exalted price-to-forecast earnings ratios. Third, and most important, Friess must believe that the companies will do better than Wall Street generally expects.

Friess says he has relaxed the first two criteria, reasoning that in this era of low inflation it is acceptable to buy stocks whose earnings are growing more slowly than he used to expect, and selling at higher price-to-earnings ratios.
"We are learning to be sensitive to the flow of funds and to market liquidity, which can influence P-E ratios," he said.

He has bought some stocks that are largely dependent on a strong domestic economy, like some housing-related issues, and has gone back into some oil-service stocks. But he says he won't buy stocks in cases where he thinks Wall Street is still too optimistic about their prospects.

"We are," sighed Friess, "finding companies with deteriorating fundamentals that are going up, when logic says they should not be."

In fact, in this market most stocks have gone up. That no doubt will end some day, but Friess is only the most recent manager to have expected the great bull market to end before it did.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:44 - ID#286234)
I realize it is a well kept secret, but I felt sure you would know it. The story I heard is that food critics would get off the plane and head straight for Warszawa but would never write about it. They like it that much. I haven't been there since moving out of town. Just wanted to know if it was still there. If you go, try a shot of Rowanberry vodka!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:44 - ID#411112)
Besides gold my other passion is cooking,something a lot of us I'am sure can come together on
what say we swap our favorite recipes,what the heck,besides buying gold..... food is just as fun and as important....and I get the feeling a lot of good cooks out there in Kitco Land

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:46 - ID#189273)
First read Gleich's book in '90, when it arrived in a package purchase of books on Chaos Theory from a Science Book Club that I ordered. After I fully grokked its implications, a process that took several days of weeding and pruning in the garden, I became one of those "passionate advocates", urging one and all to read about it. Not an original response to chaos, but an honest one. Needless to say, no one really cared.

Of course, most of my friends hadn't spent years studying various trading strategies and schools of technical analysis, wondering why the best of them left their practisioners high and dry at critical points. ( This was the source of my rather nasty comment about TA a few months ago ) .

I've created a loose combination of trading discipline, fundamental and TA plus seat-of-the-pants right-brain gut reaction, all of which I use or discard at will in investing. I've read that there are people trying to incorporate chaos theory into their market analysis. This interests me. As I'd rather not re-invent the wheel, I'm looking around.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:47 - ID#410114)
$30,000 gold
Sharefin, if gold went to $30000 it would be because gold demand has/had exploded

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:51 - ID#45173)
farfel: thx for the report on mutual funds
"But by the end of February, the latest figures available, cash accounted for just 4.6 percent of domestic stock-fund assets. Not since 1976 have fund managers shown as great an aversion to cash."

I also read your post about talking bear to mutual fund owners. I do this all the time and find that I'm not exactly the life of the party. No one really wants to hear about the gold/DOW ratio, etc. I did manage to talk my office mate's girlfriend into buying some gold stocks into a fund she manages and he's bought some physical. Generally my friends think I'm a nut for talking about gold and risks in the stock market. My wife doesn't, but then she's from asia. She knows better.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:51 - ID#340302) describe yourself as a "whore" in you previous post...
...and seem very proud of that fact? What type of whore are you? Do you swallow on command? Do you take it up the butt?

Is that why you & your buddy, Bernatz, spew venom & bitterness at all the gold bulls on this forum.

You have no ideology, no dominant beliefs to guide your life, so you hate yourself and even more so, you hate ideologically-committed goldbugs? Anything to make a buck, huh?

Just innocent questions from your old friend...


(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:56 - ID#255190)
Sharefin RE: ANOTHER gold @ $30,000
To many dollars and still printing. No relationship to a tangible standard. Loss of political will to control same. After a while 'those who have the oil make the rules'.

I think his point is that the US$ dominated system and its stewards are no longer functioning even marginally to the benefit of the oil producers. His last comments to me regard paternalism and outright domination of the US over ME via military management of perception of that region as 'unstable'.

Can see the possiblities he is suggesting regarding 'keeping oil price high enough to allow development of other oil sources' etc. Very intriguing ( literally ) . Must think a bit about these things. Alot of geopolitical issues more than money issues. Money a means to the end of power ( oil unable to dominate US ) . Concentration of oil production in one region certainly would be problematic since it would effectively transfer power to that one region. ( see Arab effort to penalize the West for supporting Isreal's 1973 agressive acquisition of Arab lands ) 1973 oil embargo, etc. Oil as a weapon. Iran in 1979.

So the real issue is control. Oil is the control. And who controls oil controls evrything. That is the battle ground.

As regards gold as the new world oil currency and why? It would 1 ) give the Arab's the material, cultural standard which is currently lacking in a paper only pricing scheme and 2 ) give the industrialized countries a higher paper price to keep oil flowing from many sources so as to reduce the impact of an embargo, etc. He has said in the past that oil would be much higher in US$ terms without gold as partial payment ( US$100/Bbl ) . Its not the US$ or gold it is oil as the central point.

Also interesting that he considers that most all gold mining would be nationalized. One can see this happening in the USA easily since, of course, they confiscted gold coins once without much truble. Here the Emergency Powers Act is still renewed each year by the President. Part of that is statements that say the President can, at his discretion, grab anything and everything in the country for the good of the country. So there ya go.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 21:56 - ID#340302)
@EJ...just keep on telling it like it is...
...they may not want to talk about it or listen to it...but they will remember you and seek you out for advice when the time comes. Whether you realize it or not, you are becoming more and more powerful with each and every passing day.


(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:00 - ID#340302)'s a great little restaurant in Santa Monica...
...not the name you mentioned however.


(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:03 - ID#183109)
RJ ......and MR. CHEEZE
RJ, never got around to thanking you for your very interesting post a long time ago on your interrogation training and techniques. Reading them brought back crystal clear memories of my resistance training, and some not so fun interrogations.


On your Fri Apr 03 1998 21:08 post:

Thankyou for your kind words, and your highly informative post. I will take very little credit for the goldEN-eagle chart to which you refer. The bulk of the credit goes to Mr. Disney and Vronsky-san for all their hard work. You have a valid point on LIHIR, and I would love to see all the figures on it included in such a chart. If you have all this data, maybe we can talk Mr. V into including it in the present or in an upcoming chart. Ive tried to come up with some info on LIHIR, but found it to be as difficult as finding info on most S.A. shares. Regarding your comment of as the bull gets going I believe that most Americans will pile into Fidelity Select American Gold and BGEIX far quicker than they will a fund which specializes in SA mines!  This may be true, but do not forget that Fidelity has its own fund specializing in S.A shares ( Precious Metals is the name I recall ) . With these favorite S.A stocks of ours being so tight, it wont take nearly as much money flowing into them to get them really moving. Id also venture to suggest that the SA shareholders are more diehard goldbulls, and wont be so anxious to take small profits along the way. If you locate any good articles or sites on your favorite LIHIR, please post or send my way. And Ill be sure to keep you abreast of the big three from the kitco SA index : )

Most of all, GO GOLD!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:06 - ID#411112)
Farfel,your 20.41 post,speaks volumes,reason we might as well talk cooking


(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:08 - ID#331205)
Over the past several quarters while M3 has soared, its M1 component
has been dropping. M1 is cash, coin, and checkable deposits and to
have it reduced implies reduced liquidity. The situation in mutual
funds seems to confirm this and perhaps a move to the exit ramps
is in order.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:09 - ID#286279)
Sigh, change is inevitable. Maybe it is better now, if that is possible.


(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:10 - ID#340302)
@ROBNOEL...thanks for your compliments...
...and appreciate your good thoughts.


(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:11 - ID#411259)
..... Man, you are EASY! .....
Date: Sat Apr 04 1998 21:51

farfel ( describe yourself as a "whore" in you previous post... ) ID#340302:..and seem very proud of that fact? What type of whore are you? Do you swallow on command? Do you take it up the butt?

When faced with logic and facts the response is above. Makes you wonder about a mind that can do this. This fellow has some education, tis evident, still he has no class, and spends his time pitching gold at parties. The word boorish come to mind.

Don't know what this guy does for a living, but its my JOB to trade, perhaps his misplaced anger is from when he kicked the dog as a child, but his overreactions seem to be borne in a maelstrom of buried rage.

Hey Beverly Hills Farfel Fellow. I'll be at the Whilshire theater in Beverly Hills tomorrow for a 2pm show of Penn and Teller. Feel free to come on by and say high.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:12 - ID#393224)
Gold 30 000??
Some of you are having trouble believing a price of gold in the thousands of $$/ounce.Let's do a little calculating:

1932 DOW=42
1998 DOW=9000

9000/42 = multiple of 214

1932 gold=35? ( or was it 1933? )
1998 gold=300

300/35 = multiple of 8.6

Now let's compute the POG at the DOW multiple of 214.

35 x 214 = 7490.

How does gold $7490/oz sound??

Now let's compute the DOW at the gold multiple.

42 x 8.6 = 361.2

How does DOW 361 sound??

Simplistic, yes. However, the rough relativity of values is way out of scale here. Either the DOW has got to come way down, gold has got to go way up, or both.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:14 - ID#340302)
@RJ...your heated emotional reaction to my innocent questions...
...suggests you might not be the cool, calm, unemotional trader you claim to be.

At least that's one man's opinion.

Your friend,


(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:16 - ID#254112)
@Sharefin: Price of Gold
...I think it's completely relative.
Today you can buy one ounce of gold for $310 units of thin air.
In other words: you buy one ounce of gold for zero value because thin air is available in infinite quantity. So is in principal the US$ as any fiat, non-gold based currency, of course including the Yen.

Maybe you and me we don't belong to those for whom the thin air units called US$ is available in infinite quantity. But mathematically, that doesn't matter as long as there are those for whom the thin air units called US$ are available in infinite quantity.

Now think of the worldwide experience which might be made very soon, that all currencies are worth nothing and only a type of money which finds universial acceptance because of it's intrinsic value, gold, will be needed by all nations and all human beings to replace the paper betrayal with something real. The demand for gold will explode! And it is very possible that there will be a transition period in which the old paper currencies have to compete with gold, which means to price it. Do you think you would sell one ounce for $30,000 thin air units so easily???

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:20 - ID#411259)
..... Polarbear .....

There is a story behind your last post which I MUST hear..

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:24 - ID#254112)
@Nick: I completely agree with you.
You found a very empiric method to demonstrate the relativity of pricing gold by comparing it with the DOW.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:25 - ID#411112)
Put these two storys together and you get the big picture

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:25 - ID#267344)
F* (and all) Questions to ponder...
In the past, one of the many ways you have contributed to this forum was by analyzing the pessimism and optimism of the posters on it. I would be curious to read your thoughts concerning the Overall Quality of this forum over these past couple months, including: optimism, respect, tastefulness, sensitivity to conserving bandwidth, objectivism, and whatever else you want to include. In my own observation, I have noticed a marked down trend in many of these areas. Although the good posts continue by many of the same people ( and some new ones ) , there seems to be a lot of crap in between.
I have begun posting on a more irregular basis for two reasons.
- there are fewer posts that interest me enough to respond to ( it becomes weary sifting through the BS ) .
- I do not want to contribute to a problem I think is getting out of hand.
Does a problem exist or is the group OK with the evolution of this forum?
- c

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:30 - ID#340302)
@ALL...remember, strength and power...
...and peace in the knowledge that your gold assets are valuable, now and forever.

Today, it is the paper pushers who are beset by rage, fear, and anxiety.
They appear regularly on this forum, infuriated that there are still hold-outs in "The Great Paper Chase;" fearful because they know that the verticality of these paper markets is not sustainable much longer; and anxious because they are growing fast aware that the charade can not be perpetuated much longer.

Anyway, we're headed for a buddy's birthday party.


(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:31 - ID#227238)
At the cusp of the golden calf.
Nick@C/Sharefin: We are accustomed to viewing the value of gold in paper's terms. In return we have gold regarded as just another commodity. As long as it remains such, we will continue to ruminate of the possibilities of various values vis a vis our favorite form of paper. Erroneously.

When gold functions once again as money, the equation will revert to what it once was. That is: "How many of oz's of gold is a particular piece of paper worth." ...... and value in terms of dollars will be a moot question. In short, it is Donald's tenaciously held thread that will prevail in the end. I would hope to live long enough to see it personally but I doubt it.

In the meantime it reamains a fascinating conjecture.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:33 - ID#411112)
Sorry last post seems you can't enter Electronic Telegraph , first story was Japan now wants big

big tax cuts ( bummer give the people back thier money ) second story Germany warning folks about scams on the currency

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:34 - ID#254112)
You said:
"Here the Emergency Powers Act is still renewed each year by the
President. Part of that is statements that say the President can, at his discretion, grab anything and everything in the country for the good of the country. So there ya go."
1933 in Germany, that kind of power was called: Ermaechtigungsgesetz.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:34 - ID#373288)
sharefin - EJ -
The world needs oil and many other items in the inventory, which are necessary for progress. Over the course of thousands of years gold and silver have been money. Nothing traded as money that is paper has withstood the many thousands of years, as have the metals. I utilized the US$ due to the fact that it is the worlds reserve currency.

But what is it in and of itself worth, nothing. No paper money has value. Is that not the problem with the trading houses, the banks, etc, many people now hold paper, but the thing of value is long gone. Things have a value, paper is nothing more than a promise and the ink on it only as solid and value filled as the word and bond of the issuer.

The dollar regardless of which country prints it is nothing more than a debt to be repaid. Some criminal takes blank sheets, prints numbers on it and our governments call it money. In addition it is money upon which a levy of interest is to be paid that can in fact, never be repaid.

Gold and silver do have value they each have intrinsic worth which is so genuine that it is not disputed. It is when the lies and ruse of the politicians and bankers have once again relieved people of their senses and their gold and silver for paper money that we enter into an episode such as we are about to embark upon.

Irrespective of whether or not the tale woven by the Another entity is close to the mark or not, the upheaval we are about to witness will culminate in the implosion of the paper house of cards into which 10s upon 10s of millions have cast their life savings.

There are so many variables alive in the markets today that any number of colliding scenarios could literally cause paper to lose value in a very insignificant amount of time.

There are far better minds than mine, which have prognosticated bedlam from 1995  2005. I do not have their brains but I think either grouping of academics could be off as much as 2 to 3 years. Utilizing 2000 as a center point, we are overdue or getting ready for chaos.

Gold and silver will have a value, $30,000.00 who knows? Not I said tolerantadamus The Central Banks wield a mighty sword of gold, when they are forced to revalue paper I want to make sure I at least have a penknife of gold and a silver thumbtack.

It couldnt happen here, right?

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:35 - ID#340302)
@CLONE...responding to your questions before I leave...
...with respect to optimism...the majority of Kitcoites seem a little more hopeful yet not convinced. This ambivalent mood augurs well for the initial phase of a gold bull.

...with respect to taste and respect for others...I think the forum is very impressive on that level...certainly much more decorum here than on a Howard Stern show, for example. The occasional flare-ups occur, then dissipate just as quickly.


bernatz du ventadorm
(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:36 - ID#182192)
Farfel - you are really funny
I would offer you more encouragement,
but then you'd just be another me.

( Remember, it's not a really "out there" post
until you use the F word. )

"I found her bald upon the couch" - lyrics heard
on the radio

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:36 - ID#320219)
check your ego at the door?
I must say to live in past glory is shallow, to buy out of idiology is shallow ( if you present it as investment advice ) . There are posters that have contributed for long periods of time with little to say and were wrong, they are easy enough to skip, there are posters who present a position and they make the effort to back it up with facts but are laughed at. I for one am willing to consider any perspective- as long as I don't have to find a giant to climb on anyone see any giants lately. Gold could easily go to $30,000 if the dollar lost its status as the currency of choice. Its true value now is zero the question is timing. The world will come to an inflection point- just look at Japan if you doubt it can happen, read the news just before it happened the unsinkable SS Japan Inc.coming to a theater near you do you hear the SOS who will save her where are the life boats is the SS US tied to her? can we cut our ties? There are only two options war or depression. Think and act as you are able

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:36 - ID#189273)
@RJ and Farfel
Going to have you both star in the nude mud-wrestling competition outside the Wiltshire theater tomorrow if you don't chill now.

Lurker 777
(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:37 - ID#317247)
Farfel: pull back and regroup!
RJ has been a great benefit to Kitco and you owe him a apology.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:40 - ID#183109)
RJ and the talking Helo ride technique.
Yes, a definite story or two to tell, or at least the unclassified version. Can ya save me the searching and repost your email? Thanks.

And some trivia for the group. The japanese word for gold is "kin", ( keen ) . And Friday is Kin-yobi ( gold-day ) . Very interesting giving yesterday's action, especially the big, big jump on the asian scene.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:41 - ID#411112)
clone,funny you should mention the quaility of this forum,as someone who has visited many forums and
even if some will question this,the civility at Kitco far surpasses many other forums,at times it does see to sink into the gutter,however thier are quite a few gentleman present

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:41 - ID#284255)
Wallowing goldbugs

If gold goes to $30,000

We all better sell our gold shares before the Gov't takes them off us.

And we had all better buy guns to protect ourselves.

And we had all better find ourselves some foxhole.

Cause when gold gets to $30,000

This world will be wallowing in chaos.

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:41 - ID#182192)
Yeah, now I see it
$30,000 gold. I can come to accept that, just
like my wife came to accept my 10,000 foot stiffy.

$30,000? Is there any number that strains your
credulity? Hell, why not $3,000,000,000/ounce
gold? Then everyone who's ever been to the
dentist could own their own state.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:42 - ID#60253)

Date: Sat Apr 04 1998 20:57

sharefin ( How can this be? ) ID#284255:


" How can they reprice gold to $30,000? "

Mr. Sharfin,

This question from you, it proves for my eyes what I have said. Indeed, if I viewed as a western person, gold money as $30,000 paper dollar credits, my thoughts would also show " this cannot be"! But, from another world, I view this US$ and say "how can it be of such value to all and have numbers as the stars in heaven"? Please understand, money as paper or metal is as "perception of value in the minds of people". If all the gold held by earth were placed in the hands as money, it would be used to revalue every "real thing" at a fair price. A tiny fraction of gold would buy much production of goods and services, on a basis equal for all men, not as a debt for later settlement, as currencies are now!

Thank you

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:42 - ID#373288)
there are many kinds of precious metals... - a tiny bit of anything that burns for five minutes and I can stir fry a glorious meal, anywhere, anytime.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:45 - ID#189273)
I can't access your two links of your 22:25 post. Know another way in?

Your recent links have been well worth the time to peruse.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:48 - ID#342376)
@ clone and All
Nice comment clone. Why is it that on a forum for an investment arena that has been decimated for years, there is so much bickering when it fact the thing we are here for is showing signs of life? This forum, when I discovered it, reminded me of a local bar filled with a diversity of people of high intelligence wit and wisdom that got together every day, had a few drinks and a good time. Now it appears people have stayed too late, drank too much and the nit-picking fighting has broken out. Ego, Ego, Ego, the most chronic of all ailments in this century and any other.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:50 - ID#399119)
@ clone, RE: the direction of the posts
My opinion was stated 20:01 today, I think that compliance to this sites rules is in order. the need to shun BOOR'S is necessary and proper. Maybe Bart should privately ( or publicly ) re-state the rules emphatically to those who have de-evolved to adolescent invective and non-productive wasting of band-width, and just block their access after suitable warnings. TO ALL:comments? agreement? on this I think I'm a Hardguy to disagree with.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:51 - ID#411112)
RJ,did you get my last Email,just checking,,,as for your last post that got you and farfel all wound

up,I refer to my question,traders care less on market logic it's the action stupid

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:54 - ID#42365)
Bernatz: 3Bill or 30K?? whos cares.. it will be revauled.
DO YOU AGREE? and it will be much higher than todays value? YES? If you dont believe this why are you here? If gold were to become an alternative haven for wealth, would you agree gold may go up maybe to stratospheric highs?

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:57 - ID#373288)
a hearty thank you to one and all associated with the Polarbear
zip I found in my mailbox. Most appreciated!

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:57 - ID#190411)
O.K. clone
Let's solve this. I as a lurker, like M'srs Preacher,Ted, esp Mr. farfel, who got me off my dead butt and convinced me to repeat the F*mantra: and to so many others.

I figure it's worth $50. CDN to continue to read your poop on the markets. It has been difficult to get on KITCO lately as a lurker.

Therefore to limit the "new guys" who have suddenly "got religion, I suggest that those of you habitual posters should send Mr. Bart a check for what you think your comments and advice are worth. Especially, the posters who are so distraught about the handles. My check is in the mail Monday.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:58 - ID#411112)
Prometheus,sorry tried to give access to Electronic Telegraph

without having to sign up the URL is

(Sat Apr 04 1998 22:58 - ID#30116)
crazytimes, ALBERICH__A @ 22:34
crazytimes -- Remember, this bar is open to the whole world twenty four hours a day. There are lots of different types of people out there. Some people fall asleep when they have a drink or two, and others....

ALBERICH__A @ 22:34 -- Congress re-ups the War Powers thingee every two years, I think. The President cannot do this by himself, that would be a dictatorship.. :- ) )

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:02 - ID#267344)
F*, Hard, Crazy, and all
I am in agreement with H* & C*. It should be noted that I have gotten out of hand myself. I am trying more to restrain myself. I find that my thoughts are better received when I choose them more carefully. Restraint is a dicipline that I beleive best propagates strength of character on this forum. - c

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:02 - ID#189273)
Farfel, Bernatz, RJ, to cheer you up:
Did you see Dave Barry's calendar today?

"Q. How is the Internal Revenue Service coming along in its mission to develop a tax form so scary that merely reading it wil cause the ordinary taxpayer's brain to explode?

A. Extremely well. The latest effort, sent in by alert accountant Craig Podosek, is Schedule J, Form 1118, which is entitled -- I am not making this up -- Separate Limitation Loss Allocations and Other Adjustments Necessary to Determine Numerators of Limitation Fractions, Year-End Recharacterization Balances, and Overall Foreign Loss Account Balances."

All of you make contributions of note to this forum. Hate to see you make such a fuss playing ego-boys. Of course, if you don't behave, I'll be at the Wiltshire myself with my trusty camera, tomorrow at 2. If I leave about 6am it will give me just enough time . . . It will be more fun than 2BROTB's dogs, for sure.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:04 - ID#300202)
Methinks that face to face it wud be kissy kissy-huggy huggy. This manner
of communications brings out the dark side. Although a die hard goldbug-
I never contribute to this wonderful forum-too busy learnin'. Wud luv
to attend a Kitco bash just to meet the "real personalities". Do u really
think people wud really converse in this manner. Not. Afraid that most
wud disappoint-exception Farfel/Studio errr well a few of the other quality posters also. Conversations such as Bernatz not to be taken too
serious-can hear the laughter as he raises everyones ire. He's probably
short/bald & henpecked by his wife. He wud never attend a Kitco party.
Gotta go fer a refill & cig. Go ANOTHER-$30,000 & countin.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:04 - ID#42365)
Would any be interested in moving this forum to irc? ( internet relay chat ) real time chat... would be interestiong eh? but this would probly exclude the webtvers hrmmm maybe

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:05 - ID#45173)
tolerant1: thx for your explanation
I get the part about paper representing wealth, that it's not actually wealth. But I am unable to resolve what appears to me a conflict: if the stock market implodes, as most folks here at Kitco ( myself included ) expect, then a lot of wealth will be destroyed. A lot of paper money will be no more. Most people will have a lot less money. Folks will be out of work, including a few thousand kids who were formerly managing mutual funds with 4.6% cash. It's my understanding that in a case where there's not a lot of money around, you get deflation. How does the price of gold rise to thousands of dollars an oz in a deflationary period? If no one has any money, who can pay for gold at $10,000 an oz? Am I missing some important intermediate step between a the deflationary aftermath of a paper money meltdown and the vertical rise in gold prices? Your thoughts are appreciated.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:06 - ID#331205)
"how can it be of such value to all and have numbers as the stars in heaven"?
Great line! Through the same routers that make this forum possible
are passing network packets of dollars which are multiplying like
mad. When these packets start to return home, $10,000 gold looks
pretty easy.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:12 - ID#254112)
@Another: EURO - Who Defends Arabia ?
Last time you said that a gold based EURO would bring the oil producing states to abandon the US$ and price oil in EUROs.
You questioned if America would see any meaning in having war ships in the Gulf and asked: "Who will defend Arabia".

I'm very interested in your thoughts about the future impact of the possibility of a temporarily imploding US economy, the breakdown of the US$ as a reserve currency, on the geopolitical situation, especially on the ME.

Thanks in advance!


Alberich the Dwarf

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:13 - ID#411112)
G_NUTZ,so you want us WEBTV guys out,BART we have to do something about this HATE SPEECH,next thing

he will be after MAC guys stop the madness

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:16 - ID#22650)
All: re the decorum on this forum, I think a little venting is not bad
especially in the mostly witty way as is done here. Once vented it doesn't last long. since the world is not a perfect place there is not reason to think it should be here. As for $30,000/oz gold, it is indeed unbelievalbe at this time, but so is a wheelbarrow full of DM for a loaf of bread. As Another says, if you were from his part of the world ( ? ) and looking at what is backing the dollar ( military might ) I could see the possibilities. I am for gold attaining a value to create some sort of economic stability through discipline, but I do not want to see some crazy distortion of its value because if that is the case, then we will be living in chaos. That said: go gold!

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:16 - ID#182192)
Gosh G-Nutz (hesitant to type such an offensive name)
I do think it will be revalued. This next week, for
example, I see it revalued to $308. But as to some
belief system that I must possess in order to belong,
I'll pass, thanks. The fringe element scares me,
especially when it hides behind names like G-Nutz.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:20 - ID#331205)
Candidates for Arabian defense.
RSA - Plenty of people in Africa for whom a well led army would be a
step up.
Rhodesian Army - between engagements.
USA - They own it now and could very well, with Clinton as President
for life, ionize anyone who wants it.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:20 - ID#60253)
Date: Thu Mar 26 1998 00:26
Myrmidon ( @ Another ) ID#345268:

" the US will confiscate gold coins and bullion some day? "

I think, that gold will be viewed as money by the USA government. It's new, much higher price will offer a "way out" from many economic sins. In that day, persons will not try to "buy" gold, as it will already be used "as currency". To ask, "how can one afford $30,000 gold" would sound as today as "how can anyone afford $30,000 in savings account"? One does earn money, not afford it, yes?

Thank you

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:22 - ID#182192)
By the way, pagoda, what part of the world is ANOTHER from?
If all of this eminates from a place as foreign as, say, Vancouver,
doesn't it make you all the more shivery? Bring on the $30,000
gold, and man, are those Mounties a rip off at merely $310 or what?

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:24 - ID#342376)
@ caper
Yep, I stand corrected. This medium brings out the "ID" not the "EGO". The relative anonymity allows for that. I shouldn't post as much as I do in the presence so much talent. I could write a book "All I ever needed to know on Investing, I learned in Kitco." I still consider this an incredible site and would miss it dearly if it was gone. Watch out though, me thinks the rooms gonna be very crowded soon.

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:25 - ID#182192)
ANOTHER, this is fascinating
What I really want to know is, how do such
exotic things as "savings accounts" work
in your country? Do you go to a "bank" and
fill out some kind of "deposit slip" and
hand a "teller" your "money" along with the
"deposit slip"? Isn't that wild? Oooh,
I'm getting goosebumps. So swarthy, and
yet so knowledgeable about our ways.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:26 - ID#284255)
A buyer and a seller I may be.
Who buys gold?
For jewelry and for collections.

@ $30,000 would those investors still purchase gold?
Especially if their currencies had just devalued by 10,000%

If gold went to $30k who would buy?
Everyone would have sold - but to whom?

For a commodity to be tradable it must have a fair value.
A fair price for the buyer and the seller.

If no one could afford to buy gold as their currencies had fallen in a hole.
And their was no jewelry demand as no one could afford to buy gold.

Who would effect the other side of the trade?

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:27 - ID#255217)
@ Nick @ C
Your arithmetic is interesting. Simplistic, yet with a ring of truth. Maybe I like it because I am a simple kind of guy. Let's see, $7,490.00 X 100 = $749,000.00. Yep, I like it. I can almost talk to RJ as an equal, now. Hmmmmmmm, maybe I need another zero in there just to be sure.

Lurker 777
(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:28 - ID#317247)
Short hater's & Another.
Short hater's: I have a large physical holdings and for the RECORD I do buy PUTS on gold to protect my bullion purchases. If gold climbs to $315 I will double my PUTS so I will be in a position to benefit from a rising or falling gold price.

Another: Where are the ME oil for gold nations holding their gold? Are they taking delivery? PAPER?

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:30 - ID#182192)
Bart, I've decided what you can change my handle to
Change it to ANOTHER. He's so dreamy. I want to
be like him. I want to be inside him. Oops,
sorry, I just farted.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:30 - ID#45173)
changing the subject to: gold!
I have a variety of gold coins: Eagles, St. Gaudens, Kugs, Sovereigns, Dukats, Columbian somethingorothers, Mexican Guanajatos, and assorted singles. I just got some Maple Leafs and I have to say they are the most crudely minted gold coins I've seen. The edges are sharp and the surface is grainy, as if the gold sheet they were stamped out of was not well finished. The Eagles have the highest production quality. Anyone else noticed this about Maples?

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:33 - ID#399119)
@EJ, RE: your 23:05
IMHO, I suspect the govt. reaction to a meltdown, a full-blown crash might be to ease lending rules and rates and fire up the mints production of FRNs. This reaction is likely because it is the opposite of the reaction to the crash in 29 when the policy the FED and Govt. followed, led to "The Depression". This is HYPER-INFLATION" so $30K ozs of AU could happen. Its a scary thought, and I remain a Hardguy in thought word and deed. IDCIBM

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:34 - ID#182192)
And by the way
I think that-whew, sorry, I FARTED AGAIN

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:35 - ID#182192)
Man, if $308 gold brings out all these jarhead types
I'm all for $308 gold. Hiya, big boy, over here.
Sorry that I farted YET AGAIN.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:39 - ID#256250)
I think we are starting to see a trend even with this small amount of data.
aurator ( cum kilo salis )

1Lb table salt ( with iodine ) = NZ$0.358

chas Morganton, N.C.

4 major stores: range 33 cents to 35 cents/pd. Average is 33.75 c/ pd

my own

$0.265 per pound Cupertino CA USA

.9070 Rands per pound of salt

0.2721 NLG per pound slat ( new data coming Monday )

We this small sample we see:

1 USDollar in cupertino CA usa = 1.3509 NZ$
1 USdollar in Morganton, N.C. usa = 1.0607 NZ$
Using the yahoo currency converter

Sat Apr 4 2:35PM Eastern U.S. Time -- U.S. Markets Closed.
US Dollar Exchange Rate New Zealand Dollar
1 Apr 3 1.815871 1.82

1usdollar = 1.815871 NZdollars

1 USDollar in cupertino CA usa = 3.423 Rand
1 USdollar in Morganton, N.C. usa = 2.500 Rand
Using the yahoo currency converter

US Dollar Exchange Rate South African Rand
1 Apr 3 5.0390 5.04

1 us dollar = 5.04 rand

1 USDollar in cupertino CA usa = 1.027 NLG
1 USdollar in Morganton, N.C. usa = 0.756 NLG

Using the yahoo currency converter

US Dollar
Exchange Rate Netherlands Antilles Guilder
1 Aug 1997 1.79 1.79

( Delphi is NLG different that NAG ???? )

We need much more data. China, Japan, ... ,Germany, France, ....

Lurkers please send me the price of slat in your local currency.

Price per weight unit, country, city:

Send this information to:

( ) Thanks in Advance

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:41 - ID#254112)
@EJ (23:05)
It's true what you say that the bursting DOW bubble will cause money to evaporate.
But on the other hand, the money supply is growing right now. There is created an oversupply of money for the financial markets. You have extreme inflation in the financial markets and not yet visible inflation in the consumer markets.
I think when investment assets will be priced low, that doesn't necessarily mean full blown deflation. IMHO the currency with intrinsic value, gold, will become the only one with real buying power. Gold will increase its relative value to all paper currencies. Worldwide.

Alberich the Dwarf

bernatz du ventadorm
(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:42 - ID#182192)
I'm Bernatz, the homosexual farter
Bernatz, the homosexual farter.
Yeah, baby, yeah baby, ooh I
really like the gay life and
the cheese knife if your
lucky I'll fart on your rod
while it's inside my bod.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:46 - ID#266105)
So the real issue is control. Oil is the control. And who controls oil controls evrything. That is the battle ground.


I think there is more known oil reserves now than at
any time in history at the lowest price ever, as with every
mineral. I think the current cost of production, including
exploration and development is around $4bbl. Long term,
prices tend toward cost of production. Same with paper
currencies and base metal coins, steadily. This doesn't
argue for gold and silver, simply states the evidenced
fact about fiat currencies, at all times, in all places.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:46 - ID#344308)


interesting perspective..looking at the historical
chart for pog.....the trend is our friend..and there
is a definite trend....all up-ward...this last decline
from the $800 highs should have re-traced approx 50%
of the move up to $800----technically speaking----
looks like we over-shot a bit. i'm looking for a few
quick moves to a least the $450 level....but probably
well beyond due to hugely over-sold conditions---AND----CHAOS AND FLUX!!!
gold to $7500/oz when the paper-tiger collapses and the
money flows to gold....the talking heads at cnbc are
already hawking the possibility of a 'flight to quality'
the implications are obvious...the amount of $$$ that will
be flowing out of paper will over-whelm the supply in an
instant.....there will be no riding the gold-train with-out
tickets...physical, options, or futures, if fortunate to be
long when the throats of the shorts are cut.

ink is fixing to fill the streets as the paper beast is slaughtered....
the life-time accumulation of hundreds of millions will vanish into
that from which it came..thin air...the circle, and cycle of life. as
it has been with gold...she has been down, as the beast has trampled
upon the truth. no more, no more...the truth is out, the asians KNOW
NOW! the american peopleo don't want to know. the pseudo-wealth created
by the international banking community-----made possible by de-coupling
currencies from gold------IS AN INVERTED PYRAMID! this sucker was designed to fail....pressure is added daily....there are cracks from
the far eastern side...extending into s and central america...canada
is poised on the brink...she cannot service her mexico cannot..
the recent drop in oil prices has sounded her death knell tam bien.

speaking of oil---and the us supplies...the us is awash in oil. i personally capped wells in the 80's that were marginal--strippers---gas-lift tertiary wells with production of less than 15bbl/d....there were hundreds of thousands of these wells shut-down
nation-wide...they are still capped...think about is in the best interest of the us to IMPORT as much oil as they can. why use our vital resources and destroy the environment, when we can utilize the resources of other countries at incredibly low prices? the shallow wells in the desert areas are producing oil at their cost of $2 to $5/bbl..the cost
per/bbl in the us is much greater---let the arabs sell every drop of their oil to the was planned this way.

this is going to be a chicken-choker-gold-bull the likes of
which will leave 99% of all at the gate....the riders of the
gold-tiger....we will decide who ends up inside-her.

yes....the limb...has always been my friend.


(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:46 - ID#344308)


interesting perspective..looking at the historical
chart for pog.....the trend is our friend..and there
is a definite trend....all up-ward...this last decline
from the $800 highs should have re-traced approx 50%
of the move up to $800----technically speaking----
looks like we over-shot a bit. i'm looking for a few
quick moves to a least the $450 level....but probably
well beyond due to hugely over-sold conditions---AND----CHAOS AND FLUX!!!
gold to $7500/oz when the paper-tiger collapses and the
money flows to gold....the talking heads at cnbc are
already hawking the possibility of a 'flight to quality'
the implications are obvious...the amount of $$$ that will
be flowing out of paper will over-whelm the supply in an
instant.....there will be no riding the gold-train with-out
tickets...physical, options, or futures, if fortunate to be
long when the throats of the shorts are cut.

ink is fixing to fill the streets as the paper beast is slaughtered....
the life-time accumulation of hundreds of millions will vanish into
that from which it came..thin air...the circle, and cycle of life. as
it has been with gold...she has been down, as the beast has trampled
upon the truth. no more, no more...the truth is out, the asians KNOW
NOW! the american peopleo don't want to know. the pseudo-wealth created
by the international banking community-----made possible by de-coupling
currencies from gold------IS AN INVERTED PYRAMID! this sucker was designed to fail....pressure is added daily....there are cracks from
the far eastern side...extending into s and central america...canada
is poised on the brink...she cannot service her mexico cannot..
the recent drop in oil prices has sounded her death knell tam bien.

speaking of oil---and the us supplies...the us is awash in oil. i personally capped wells in the 80's that were marginal--strippers---gas-lift tertiary wells with production of less than 15bbl/d....there were hundreds of thousands of these wells shut-down
nation-wide...they are still capped...think about is in the best interest of the us to IMPORT as much oil as they can. why use our vital resources and destroy the environment, when we can utilize the resources of other countries at incredibly low prices? the shallow wells in the desert areas are producing oil at their cost of $2 to $5/bbl..the cost
per/bbl in the us is much greater---let the arabs sell every drop of their oil to the was planned this way.

this is going to be a chicken-choker-gold-bull the likes of
which will leave 99% of all at the gate....the riders of the
gold-tiger....we will decide who ends up inside-her.

yes....the limb...has always been my friend.


(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:52 - ID#60253)

Date: Sat Apr 04 1998 23:12
ALBERICH__A ( @Another: EURO - Who Defends Arabia ? ) ID#254112:

" I'm very interested in your thoughts about the future impact of the possibility of a temporarily imploding US economy, the breakdown of the US$ as a reserve currency, on the geopolitical situation, especially on the ME?"

From the past, to this day, America has held the "reserve currency" for the world. In that time, it has been the economic fuel for all economies. This is as it should be. However, this fuel was supplied as debt, borrowed from the future of children yet unborn. Neither myself, or any other person should enrich their home by holding the assets that give "bondage upon future life". It is as a "trader" that plays any side, without recourse for who is destroyed! "An investment without honor brings no gain to ones life"!
When the dollar is displaced, it will be as a "leveling" of the world economy. A few will learn to walk without the luxury of holding a debt upon others, "as an asset for gain". But, for every one that is brought low, ten others will gain from the loss of this dollar burden. And when one gains more in life than before, that same does "buy more" and such will be the new engine for the world economy under a new currency. A golden future is "just ahead"!
We must wait to view this "geopolitical situation".
Thank you

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:53 - ID#45173)
Hardguy2: the gov't will definately print $ and drop interest rates
in the event of a market crash. But I read in a couple of contrarian analyses of the "Great Depression" that the U.S. gov't did the same then but to no effect, that it's not true that money was kept tight. I'll see if I can find the texts where I read about this, if you're interested.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:55 - ID#22650)
EJ: the maple leafs are crudely finished, but I really like the detai
work on the leaf.

(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:55 - ID#411112)
BERNATZ take your low life opions somewhere else,you mindless twet


(Sat Apr 04 1998 23:59 - ID#26669)
$30,000 gold? Why not?
This running debate on hyperinflation continues to be fascinating, at least the core problem that is. As my branch of behavioral science isn't at all involved with economics all my reading on the subject is new knowledge for me. But I'm convinced that $30,000 gold in the future ( hopefully distant ) is much more probable than Hep's giant swizzle stick. IMHO

I'll post 3 links tonight. The first two deal with various economic theories and practicalities related to hyperinflation. The third hasn't anything to do with the subject at hand. Rather it is a reply to Cherokee's bone chilling post from earlier this week, from the "Do you want to see something REALLY scary?" genre. It is a website which, as far as I can tell is from an ultraradical postmodernist thinktank, written by people who'd apparantly weep more for a swatted mosquito than for the death of all the goldbugs in the world...IMHO