Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:00 - ID#431263)
Guten Tag mein Herr! Viel Dank for the latest quote on Lihir and other high-flyin' Aussie gold shares! Was today's 25 cent move ( 12.5% ) in Lihir on heavier than normal volume or light volume? And am I to read in your subsequent post that Aussie gold shares in general and Lihir shares in particular are now over-valued and headed for a steep correction in the near future should there be a general stock market sell-off or a correction in the price of gold or both? Danke schoen!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:03 - ID#240170)
thank you
Iwant to thank all of you for sharing your valuable knowledge and information so that we can be more aware of what is happening in the markets so that we, who are strangers to you, can make better market decisions.

You have my respect and gratitude.


(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:04 - ID#284246)

Am I seeing things? Kitco prices not changed in last few hours. Can someone please post latest gold and silver prices.

Regards, Scarface

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:04 - ID#330175)
HASHimoto sees no colapse(neither did Hoover,huh)

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:07 - ID#284246)
All, forget last post - seems ok now!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:07 - ID#411259)
..... .!... .....

After reading over my last, it occurred to me:

People ranting about 30K gold. Japan will collapse ( with 1 trillion in foreign assets and reserves, and zero external debt ) . YK2 will cause planes to drop from the skies. The collected sages here, who perhaps in another situation are entirely rational, follow blindly a prankster with a hole through his story a mile wide.

I post numbers which prove that gold has been an abysmal store of value and a horrible buy and hold investment. The silence screams. The same automatons blink and blindly spout assurances that do not obey any mathematics on Gods Earth.

Who needs this?

I will be gone for a time, yes?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:08 - ID#330175)
hey Al: all i know ( which is not much,eh ) is the futures price=June gold UP .10 @ 310.4

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:13 - ID#31868)
How goes the move, packing, drinking and waiting eh.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:15 - ID#330175)
'I will be gone for a while,yes'
Say it ain't so RJ----I prefer arrogance-to ignorance& duplicty----don't leave us poor lost souls....In gold-bug hell...

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:16 - ID#45173)
RJ: what do you expect?
A lot of folks here see gold as a good short term investment. As you can see from the "go gold" and "I'm buying more" posts, there's a lot of enthusiasm for a rise in the price of gold that may come from an economic debacle, due in no small part to the personal gold holdings of the enthusiasts. I too am a crash prognosticator by nature. I also know that there has been steady progress in the human condition over the past 7,000 years, and a whole lot of progress in the past 50. I don't believe or wish that this will run backwards. I view gold as a hedge against the part of me that engages in wishful thinking, that all is well and that the machine of world capitalism and technology will continue to grind out linear increases in productivity and wealth without interruption.

The problem is, history does not actually really ever repeat itself. We won't have a stock market crash and a depression per 1929 because it's not 1929. The whole world is different. But the current worldwide monetary system is full of contradictions born of historical causes. Something completely unexpected will happen that no one can anticipate to correct these contradictions. Somwhere in the relationship among gold and oil and the world's reserve currency live many contradictions. I sure hope change holds off for a few years. All my energy now goes into the start-up software company I work for. I want it to go public in a strong stock market in 1999. I'll make 100 times more if that happens than I will if the stock market crashes and my gold rises in value.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:17 - ID#189273)
@What's going on here?
I couldn't get on for half an hour, Friday it was just locked up. Now I see people seriously discussing thirty-thousand dollar gold and slamming RJ because he fails to recognize gold as a religious artifact? Vronsky calling the end of the world when Japan goes down 1.7%? The Another cult gaining steam, and farfel who doesn't care.

I think it's time to fly out of the cukoo's nest.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:18 - ID#238422)
Good night too...

I was thinking what you were thinking. What if we first
do v.shot-to-v.shot combat comp. and than beer can combat
comp. Should be fun. You can use 9 mm, no problem. We can
even use sandbags to support ourselfs in vertical position.
Distance to the target ( beer can ) shall be no more than 3 feet
otherwise I do not see us hitting those cans at all...

All right, fun is over, now let's get back to POG. Market
is waiting to be forecasted....

like in

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:21 - ID#330175)
don't like this 'limbo-like existance ( ? ) and my sprit has already left---29 days ta go!-----would like ta see a nice pop in gold tonight instead of profit-takin from fridays big comex up move....Maine-the land of cheap rum~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:24 - ID#238422)
John Disney, take my hand in your hand.

What is going to be your forecast for this week's POG?
I want you to get gold medal this time. Put your number
on the screen...

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:26 - ID#251268)
number 1
run on pms might be platinum,asians love it and it is still
cheap,I wouldn't be surprised to see it lead the way this week'
also looking forward to further adventures of APH milking the
silver cow,the guys been getting it all,3 1/2 day trading week?
masters,ah let er rip! ( pl.and pa going up )

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:27 - ID#31868)
I think too much emphasis is put on the 30k figure stipulated rather than
what might drive this possibility. Forgetting the number for a moment, this reminds me of the does hot air rise or does cold air sink question. I guess it is not too difficult to fathom what might drive the price of gold up, but, will it increase invalue or is US dollar devaluing. And yes I know, the US dollar has no value save the confidence that backs it but I am simply saying that if gold went to the 7k range presented by Nick last evening we would be quite amazed. I mean that would be a rather hefty gain.

As the hundreds of billions of dollars exit a market that is crashing would there not be people trying to find value in 2-3-4-5-6-7k valued gold? I think people will park as much of their money in it as they can.

Mining shares should do well, and physical, hmmmmmm, if you can find any at that point.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:29 - ID#402131)
Donald--Just a thank you for your posting re: XAU/spot gold
I just saw a part of it posted on the Stratigic Investor site on the Gold Price Monitor subject-I was kind of hoping that you would stay a
secret to the rest of the world.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:30 - ID#20135)
Date: Sun Apr 05 1998 19:19
arden ( No, A. Goose, you can't buy gold at Comex price ) ID#201238:

Thanks for your detailed answer on comex's involvement in setting the buy and sell prices of bullion.

The base still seems to me that the comex ( which is mainly a paper gold market sets the outside spot prices ) . I want to go over you post a few more times and think on it. Thanks for the effort you put in on it.


Just wnated to remind everyone that at the end of trading on Friday comex had 148,278 ounces of gold bullion eligible for delivery. Friday paper gold traded 6.5 million ounces ( 65,000 contracts ) . If 1490 contract that traded on Friday decided to take delivery:

1 ) Their contract price would not go up, since it has already been set.

2 ) Comex would be out of eligible gold for delivery.

3 ) Gold would be shocked into a new trading level ( though I am not sure it would be at the COMEX ) .

4 ) ANOTHER's point now comes into play... if spot gold no longer traded how would our gold stocks be valued ??? I would like to suggest we not worry about their value, but that we get them to pay us dividends in bullion.

How could comex stocks be depleted?

1490 contracts is only 2.29% of the contracts that traded on Friday alone.


Gold 65,000


Gold 30,000


Gold 25,000


Gold 30,000

New York-March 27-FWN
Gold 75,000


Gold 85,000


Gold 65,000

375,000 contracts in the last 6 days. If 0.4% of those contracts decide to take delivery Comex's eligible gold stocks are gone. No change is price --- BECAUSE they have already had the sale price set. IN fact, since it seems you can get the bullion only by taking delivery on future contracts, the delivery price would probably range from $300 to $315 per ounce ( loose guess based on contract purchased and how far in advance othis month's delivery date ) .

With a minimum amount of effort, comex can be under seige. I strongly suspect the same situation holds with the LBME. I believe that Comex can easily come under seige from Japan, China,... or just some aggressive hedge fund.

I suggest we change the call to:

We don't care ... We are BUYING MORE and TAKING DELIVERY!!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:30 - ID#45173)
Tech note: how to avoid posting multiple posts
If you hit the "Submit your comment" button and your browser just hangs, don't keep pushing the "Submit your comment" button over and over. Each time you do, you're resubmitting the request to the server and it will be posted as many times as you hit the button. Meanwhile, the server is thrashing on multiple requests to read other records on the server, locking everyone out. Instead, go to your browser File menu and open a new browser, point it to the Kitco site using your Favorite or Bookmark, and you'll get back in again.

Bart, any chance of upgrading this puppy to handle the popularity?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:31 - ID#284246)

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:36 - ID#399119)
@ Bart, RE: connection problems,
all evening, the refresh rate has been sloooow, 3 to 5 minutes per, or a failed connection would pop up. I have a net-connection program called "net medic" running which indicates a "local router traffic index performance problem" with a 10% network delay, and a 90% site delay. Is kitko being overwhelmed by the traffic? Did you sell enough Mounties to upgrade the set-up? Can we look forward to a better connection in the future? If so, when? Iguess I am a Hardguy2 please.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:39 - ID#287279)
As far as your knowledge of the markets, I am impressed.
As far as your understanding of the y2k problem, we all have much more to learn.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:40 - ID#26669)
$30000 gold?
It is seductive, the idea of $30,000 gold. But what would it do to the Kitcoites?

Steve aka the family jeweler could retire on the contents of his floor sweepings alone.

The Retired Soldier and other military retirees would have their retirement funds entirely wiped out so they'd have to go back in to the Army. I wonder what helecopter vibration would do to one's arthritis? "Hey, my back is killing me. Let's put down over there, in that grassy spot next to Denny's. They have really good senior citizen's specials."

Hepcat would have to subsist on his music, which I hope is more pleasant than his writing.

Mr. Disney would be able to buy his own third world country, maybe next to Another's and across the river from the Silverbarony.

R.J. would have to buy and sell wheat pennies, which sould be worth $500 in BU condition. Come to think of it, I have about 20 pounds of wheat pennies if I can remember what I did with them. Only worth $50 apiece though as they're all circulated.

But All kidding aside, I was in South America in the early 70's and I saw with my own itty bitty eyeballs the various banknotes coming out with zeros regularly lopped off the end of each new series, usually three at a time. If ( and I say IF very loudly and vehemently ) there ever is an hyperinflation of any timespan one could easily see not just $30,000 gold but $300,000 gold or $3,000,000 gold. But everything else would go up, too, like $3,000 per hour factory wages, $100 bread and $100,000 bribes for government officials...wait a minute, scratch that, we already have 100,000 bribes...Sorry, just wasn't thinking.

( All IMHO of course. )

Goodnight all!, Even you, Hep. You know you do need to sleep, too. ;^ )

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:44 - ID#347185)
Welcome, I've been lurking for quite a while.
( Not much to add I'm afraid )

Well, where to start?! Things really depend on threat assessment
-or your definition of "crash". I feel comfortable as an independant ( Bob Brinker just called gold a "dead cat" quoting the "from $800 to $300 over the last 16yrs" twerp...anyway ) computer consultant working primarily for little to medium sized companies while maintaining and expanding my skills as a "jack of all trades" with all the tools.

Minimum debt, maximum useable real-goods ( clothes you wear etc, "spare parts" if you will ) and a full cupboard never hurt anyone. Did I mention precious metals? :- ) I have a weakness for silver myself but they all come after food! Really.

RJ -Do you feel that the value of gold has not held value well?? Is this in consideration of buying power for real-goods or just FRNs? I'd like know where to look for figures showing the former.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:45 - ID#20135)
pardon the repost, but I am trying to get more input from the midnight shift...
Date: Sun Apr 05 1998 22:55
A.Goose ( Lurkers please add your data to this table. ) ID#20135:
Copyright  1998 A.Goose/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
We need data from Japan, Indonesia, ..., South Korea, ... Australia

Send the price of salt in your local currency to:

( )

Include price per unit weight, country and city. Help us build an alternate currency table to validate
usdollar vs other currencies.

Thanks in advance.

1 USDollar in cupertino CA usa = 1.3509 NZ$
1 USdollar in Morganton, N.C. usa = 1.0607 NZ$
1 USDollar in cupertino CA usa = 3.423 Rand
1 USdollar in Morganton, N.C. usa = 2.500 Rand
1 USDollar in cupertino CA usa = 1.027 NLG
1 USdollar in Morganton, N.C. usa = 0.756 NLG
1 USDollar in cupertino CA usa = 1.626 SFr
1 USdollar in Morganton, N.C. usa = 1.20 SFr

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:47 - ID#284255)
Quotes on Ozzie market and metals

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:50 - ID#342376)
Getting on Kitco..
I suspect the problems of getting on here are just the beggining. POG moves up more over the next week or two and traffic here will be enormous. Of course, all this is good for POG but bad for Kitcoholics. I don't know much details but it appears Bart doesn't make any money at all from this site. He certainly deserves it. Of course all this may be premature but there is no doubt that if POG goes up more, everyone will have ALOT of trouble getting on here. All I can say is I'd be glad to pay for it. This site has been worth more than the dozen investment newsletters I subscribe to.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:50 - ID#342376)
Getting on Kitco..
I suspect the problems of getting on here are just the beggining. POG moves up more over the next week or two and traffic here will be enormous. Of course, all this is good for POG but bad for Kitcoholics. I don't know much details but it appears Bart doesn't make any money at all from this site. He certainly deserves it. Of course all this may be premature but there is no doubt that if POG goes up more, everyone will have ALOT of trouble getting on here. All I can say is I'd be glad to pay for it. This site has been worth more than the dozen investment newsletters I subscribe to.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:51 - ID#347127)
@ all

Did the time zones change today. I see that AZ has 3 hrs. difference to EST according to Kitco. If so stock market should open one hour earlier.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:52 - ID#293211)
Stock Markets to crash soon
Sony CEO stated "Japans economy is in Ruins"
Moodys=Japans credit rating is now adjusted from stable to "Negative"
Excute fallback positions immediately7777777

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:54 - ID#284255)
Hashimoto says can't say Japan verging on collapse
TOKYO, April 6 ( Reuters ) - Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto on Monday rejected a comment by the chairman of Sony Corp that Japan's economy is verging on collapse.

Pointing to the nation's huge overseas assets and foreign reserves and lack of foreign debt, he told parliament: ``I question whether one can say such a country is on the verge of collapse.''

Hashimoto was responding in the Upper House budget committee to a questioner who asked him about a remark last week by Sony's Norio Ohga, who told foreign reporters in Tokyo that Japan ``is on the verge of collapsing.''

Ohga also likened Hashimoto to Herbert Hoover, the U.S. president who clung to tight fiscal policies as the stock market crashed in 1929 and the Great Depression ensued.

``I am not aware of the details of the Sony chairman's remarks,'' Hashimoto said. ``But assuming he meant it would be troubling if the Japanese economy is not firmly managed, then I myself fully understand the need for Japan to escape from its stagnation as soon as possible and achieve a strong economic reconstruction.''

Ohga's comments were virtually ignored by the Japanese media until they were splashed across the front pages of newspapers in London, where Hashimoto was attending a summit of Asian and European leaders over the weekend.

Hashimoto told the committee Ohga's remarks came up at the summit, being mentioned specifically by British Prime Minister Tony Blair at a news conference, although he insisted Japan was not criticised in London.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:56 - ID#20135)

Futures Contracts
Updated as of: Apr 06, 1998 @ 0:52 am ET

Sym. Company Name Last Change %Chg High Low Vol.

GC M8 June Gold 3104 +1 +0.0 3113 3097 32.6K
SI K8 May Silver 6590 +15 +0.2 6620 6570 17.1K
HG K8 May High Grade Copper 7630 -5 -0.1 7630 7630 4.81K
PL N8 July Platinum 4117 +82 +2.0 4125 4080 1.88K
PA M8 June Palladium 26500 +400 +1.5 26700 26000 309


(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:57 - ID#284255)
BOJ chief says expects permanent tax cuts--paper
Hayami was quoted as saying in an interview with the newspaper: ``I expect to see permanent income tax cuts, and I hope to see corporate tax cuts and more efficient public spending.''

``After the tankan, the stock market and the yen weakened...because of these dark prospects. I think there is some sign of a vicious circle developing. Something needs to be done,''

(Mon Apr 06 1998 00:58 - ID#284255)
Japanese weakness to hurt OECD growth - WSJ
SINGAPORE, April 6 ( Reuters ) - Japan's economy is likely to shrink by 0.3 percent this year, slowing growth by industrial nations more than previously expected, the Wall Street Journal's interactive edition on Monday quoted OECD economists as saying.

It quoted the economists for the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, which group's the world's leading industrialised nations, as saying Japan's economy was set to shrink for the first time in more than two decades, by 0.3 percent, against earlier estimates of 0.1 percent.

With South Korea's economy seen dropping by 0.7 percent, OECD experts now expect overall growth in the OECD area to fall below the 2.5 percent forecast in December, the Journal said.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:01 - ID#284255)
Japan must boost demand to hit growth target-Foley
Asked about the outlook for the U.S. economy and the rise in the Dow Jones industrial average to a record 9,000 points last Friday, Foley said: ``We ought to be careful about predicting the future.''

LDP policy chief Taku Yamasaki said on Sunday he expects a promised economic stimulus package to include at least eight trillion yen in fresh fiscal measures, with some in tax cuts.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:02 - ID#330175)
@ The End......June gold sill up a dime @ 310.40
We're countin on ya 'night-crew'~~~~~~~~

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:04 - ID#340302) "your desire to fly out of the cukoo's nest?"
Promey....let me ask you this...what constitutes madness?

Goldbugs making academic speculations about gold's ultimate price destiny ( even on the high end of $30,000 ) in the most analytical manner...

...or posters espousing the virtues of being whores for sale...devoid of any ideological commitment but simply wedded to the pursuit of profit at any cost? You know, the Howard Stern School of High Morals?

Who are the real lunatics?

...goldbugs trying to analyze the relationship of oil and gold...

...or DOW investors throwing every cent of their cumulative net worth plus 50% more of accumulated debts into equities on the basis of such brain-dead catch phrases as, "THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND," "DON'T WORRY... BE HAPPY," etc.

Who are the real lunatics?

Please let me know.


(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:08 - ID#347127)
@ all

I will repeat my dumb question, did time zones change today?
This makes a lot of difference for those who live in the West Coast and the Mountain states because if time changed, the markets in the Mountain states will open one hour earlier local time, ie. instead of 8:00 am at 7:00 am.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:08 - ID#286230)
farfel Just going to bed farfel me lad--but I'd say anyone who passes up a profit for years in favour of continuing with a loosing bet runs the risk of being called a lunatic

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:10 - ID#340302)
@A.GOOSE..."WE DON'T CARE...WE ARE BUYING MORE (and taking delivery)
...your revised slogan is closer to the truth than you will ever imagine.

I "think" there is a little surprise in store for the gold market soon.

Thanks again.


(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:10 - ID#373403)
Gold HAS been a terrible store of value at certain prices and during certain time periods. Gold NOW and at producer prices is easy. We do not respond to you because we do not agree with you. Historical gains and losses have little bearing on todays potential. Give it up, tell us who are your masters who want gold shouted down.

Gold at $30,000 is like talking about ho one would spend their lottery winnings, should they win. It's fun. Stay or go away but chill out.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:10 - ID#284255)
Email Chatter
In the Orlando Sentinel, FL. Sunday newspaper, top of the page, big black letters


There is 1 1/4 pages of problems of the Y2K.
Wow- this is a first for exposure like this in newspaper here.
They spell out the whole 9 yards.
They give a web site where you can take a test for compliance
They also recommend that you should write manufactures of VCR's phones, organizers, answering machines, thermostats, security systems and even electronic in your car and ask for written assurances that the devices can handle the Y2K.
If a company refuses, keep records of your letters and responses.
I am soon going to have to get a filing cabinet just for Y2K with all the web site material and now this good stuff.

Know what Nick.
This Y2K thingy is gonna be brutal.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:13 - ID#215379)
Daylight saving time in effect, Spring forward one hour

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:14 - ID#255284)
We'll keep the gold flat flying here.....
Well we'll do what we can. Picked up the America's cup limited edition 1995 set ( NZ winners ) today. Oh my. Oh my. one 1.5 0z 9999 Gold bullion commemorative and 2 x 2.5 oz Ag comms. Beautiful box set for US$492.
Looking for more. Oh my. not a shabby deal.

g'day sharefin

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:14 - ID#340302)
@MISSING LINK...Yes, just who are the gold shorts' masters?
Soros...Buffett...the Bronfmans...Germany...Switzerland???

Just who exactly manipulated this market downward for mass reaccumulation?

One can only imagine??


(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:17 - ID#286230)
Munk takes a hit:

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:19 - ID#373403)
Female Challenge
Welcome. I work in jewelry which bets on a good economy. My wife works in unemployment representation which benefits from a recession. Hot dogs do well in a recession and steaks don't. Butter does well in a boom and guns do well in a depression.

Buy gold, either it goes up in a troubled future or it does nothing and you lose 3% in a passbook account.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:19 - ID#347127)
@ dirt

Thanks for responding. Arizona NEVER changes time. So I asked five people before I posted my question at Kitco, and guess what, nobody knew!
Thinking about it why should they. Clocks never change in Arizona.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:21 - ID#255284)
Trivia & Prometheus & Kipples
F* the unspeakable

You ask "Who are the true lunatics?"

Easy riddle. Look in your wallet.

You got a social security number?

next question please.

I understand. Believe me. I understand. I've often thought this periodic kitco loopiness is lunar related. It will pass. Be assured, it will pass, and from the ashes greater creatures will rise....
"If you can keep your head
While all about you are losing theirs...."
It's that Rudi fella again, talking about how to be a golden human...

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:32 - ID#393224)
G'day Auracious.
"If you can keep your head
While all about you are losing theirs...

...maybe you should have another look around!!"

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:36 - ID#220325)
Have a heart RJ we need sensible people on the forum such as yourself. Don't leave us to the wishful meanderings of the uninformed, most mean well but they just don't know what you do. There are a lot of good people here and you are helping to educate them. It is RJ, APH, GLENN, VRONSKY, DA, MIKE SCHELLER and a few others that make the Kitco site what it is. Look on your role as a mentor, a teacher who guides those searching for knowledge. A classroom teacher always finds students at the back of the class whose sole purpose is to disrupt. They make no valuable contribution but they attract attention to themselves WHICH IS THEIR GOAL. They mean no harm FOR THE MOST PART but they cause it by distracting from the real lessons to be learned.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:39 - ID#340302)
@ZEKE...BATTLE MOUNTAIN GOLD as a barometer...
...the reason I cited BMG as a good barometer for the entire gold sector is this:

1 ) It is a pure gold play.
2 ) It is an international senior producer with great amounts of liquidity.
3 ) It has a lengthy history, making it a good candidate for volume analysis.

Beyond those facts, I cannot comment as to whether or not it is a good investment. Sorry.


(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:41 - ID#207205)
I too lurk in jumping cholla land. South of Ajo, specifically. Had the same time zone issue this evening. Seems NY elected to go forward in time an hour. I thought only O. Wells & captain Kirk could pull that off. If you're ever enroute to Rocky Point would be interested in a metals chat.

I'm heading down to Hecla, Newmont, & Campbell in N. Sonora sometime in the next month. Sort of a financial recon mission. If you happen to have the directions to the Campbell mine I could use them. I recently ran into the one of engineers at Newmont's new operation and he indicated the heap leach pad was about done. Any info from N. Sonora I'll post.

That El Ninito has sure brought out the critters!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:42 - ID#431263)
BMG also has a big stake in LIHIR up 12.5% today in the land of OZ.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:46 - ID#347127)
Farfel, your after dinner post..

of Apr 04, 02:08 on redistribution of wealth, was very good. It must be was it is now happening in SE Asia. Japan, Europe, and finally the US will eventually follow.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:46 - ID#252127)
Another......keep away from that stuff

ANOTHER is entitled to a few snorts too, I mean $30,000; might even had a bit more than a few.
The eligible gold on the Comex would cost about $4.45 billion.
Love the thought of RJ selling wheat pennies for a living. HARHAR

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:48 - ID#284255)
Stop complaining BVD
G'Day Auracious & Nick of the C

Here's one while you're looking behind to see whose lost their head.
A gay man, finally deciding he could no longer hide his sexuality
from his parents, went over to their house and found his mother in
the kitchen cooking dinner. He sat down at the kitchen table, let out
a big sigh, and said, "Mom, I have something to tell you: I'm gay."

His mother made no reply or gave any response, and the guy was
about to repeat it to make sure she'd heard him, when she turned
away from the pot she was stirring and said calmly, "You're gay --
doesn't that mean you put other men's penises in your mouth?"

The guy said nervously, "Uh, yeah, Mom, well I guess so." His
mother went back to stirring the pot, then suddenly whirled around,
whacked him over the head with her spoon and said, "Don't you EVER
complain about my cooking again!!!!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:51 - ID#340302)
@SHAREFIN...I really do miss your poetry...
...when do we get to see more?


(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:52 - ID#284255)
Sniffer Klinton and his snooter - time for a change --- soon
Continuing Common Sense
4-4-98 Doug from Upland
Larry King, Geraldo and others have talked to St. Susan the Martyr from prison. Why won't they talk to Sharlene Wilson?
We on this forum know exactly why they won't. Wilson would tell the audience that she testified to the Saline County grand jury in 1990 about Bill Clinton's cocaine use. King and Geraldo would not want to hear about that, would they?
Perhaps they would like to talk to Gary Parks about his use of cocaine with Bill Clinton in the "playroom" under the governor's mansion.
Perhaps they would like to talk to Jerry Parks widow about the teenage girls and coke parties at the Vantage Point apartments in Little Rock.
Perhaps they would like to talk to Sally Perdue about how Clinton used cocaine "like a pro" in her presence.
Perhaps they could pin down Roger Clinton about how his brother "has a nose like a vacuum cleaner."
Perhaps they would like to discuss why Willy has refused to reveal his complete medical record.
No, guess they don't want to talk about that. Because if they did, they would have to talk about the Great Secret that most of America does not know --- Mena and money laundering. They would have to talk about the $50 million wire transfer from ADFA. They would have to talk about Coral Reinsurance. And they would have to talk about "Lasater's deal."

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:53 - ID#255284)
Come Back Limey
snowbird 1;36

I'll drink to that.


I'll drink to that too

(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:53 - ID#340302)
@MYRMIDON...thank you...
...and your extrapolation seems incisive.


(Mon Apr 06 1998 01:55 - ID#340302)
@AURATOR...I still get a big kick...
...out of your sense of humor.



(Mon Apr 06 1998 02:02 - ID#284255)
WHAT MAN AMONG YOU - would buy more gold?
Please excuse the lapse.


Two men in every man I see
And all of us half knowing
Which of these men we be

Who choose the better way
They overcome
the burden of their day

Or wrong the choice
Condemn ourselves
To the bitterness of remorse

Before the naval battle of Salamis in September 480 B.C. Themistocles thus persuaded the Greek captains who were undecided to engage the immensely superior Persian fleet.
'In every man there are two men, one base, one noble; and we shape our lives as we choose between them. The easy way is cheap but the man so defeated pays for his choice as long as he lives; while that man who chooses to be brave, and risk the prize of the good life, will die with glory, or live in honour, and this is our choice today.'
The Greek captains chose the better way and though outnumbered more than ten to one destroyed the Persian navy.

More to be found at:

(Mon Apr 06 1998 02:03 - ID#255284)
chortle, chortle. Gag.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 02:03 - ID#347127)
To the resident South of Ajo in AZ USA

I do not know how to address you because you have no handle. But I do not know where the 3 mines are. About 15 or so years ago I visited a Hecla mine in S. Arizona when they were mining copper. They soon closed it. The only mines I visit are abandoned shafts for curiosity to see what life was in the early west. Someday before gold hits $30,000 they will reopen.

According to estimates only 10% of the gold has been mined from AZ, but at some price level of Au ( $1,000??? ) a lot of the mines will be profitable. I was amazed to find out that there are 6,000 + shafts ( now abandoned ) already in AZ.

Good luck, and watch for nuggets. A lot of them washed out on the creeks...

(Mon Apr 06 1998 02:07 - ID#340302)
@DELPHI...Netherlands as a "poor" economy...
...the reason I labelled the country as such has to do with the issue of "economic diversity." Again, it is very weak there...same problem that besets Canada and Australia ( both countries sold their gold reserves to raise much-needed revenues for their economies ) .

However, as you point out, there are certainly countries worse off than DutchLand.


(Mon Apr 06 1998 02:10 - ID#347127)
@ Farfel on Netherlands

Main industry after Philips is cheese and whores.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 02:12 - ID#340302) crack me up!!!
Do you speak from personal experience? Have you tasted "the cheese?"


(Mon Apr 06 1998 02:14 - ID#255284)
F* The unpallatable

your 1:55. Funniest thing is, I was serious.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 02:16 - ID#340302) will always be my favorite comedian...
...on Kitco. Just keep 'em coming!



(Mon Apr 06 1998 02:17 - ID#431263)
SPOT GOLD @ 309,0 +1.30!
Gold lookin' good even though Japan up overnight. If'n we could get spot gold to close in Asia above 310 I believe London and New York would try to take it higher. A gap higher opening on Comex above 312-313 spot June would trigger a flood of stop loss orders and could give us a strong push toward 320! I would sure hate to be short going into trading on Monday!

Herr Nick @C--G'day mate! Let me know wwhere Lihir closes today down under will ya'? Thanks!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 02:20 - ID#255304)
Sorry about the handle issue but that's out of my control. It is Aztec.
As for the mines, all three are in the Northen part of the state of Sonora, Mexico, not S. AZ.
I wasn't following gold 15 years ago but I was following javelina's and have run across several abandoned mine shafts throughout the state. I dont think the gold went away. Just the folks.
The Phelps Dodge Ajo copper mine is rumored to be reopening in 1999. The ore will not be processed there but shipped to another location. Ya got me on this one.
Of the three mines, the only one I do not know how to get to is Campbell Resources. I'll probably just call them for directions.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 02:23 - ID#373335)
$30,000 GOLD
When it goes past $1000 on the way to 30,000 I'll be opening my first

gold mining supply store. Should be selling franchises at the end of the first month.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 02:25 - ID#347127)
Farfel, as I recall in my younger days...

... when I frequented a particular area of Amsterdam, I recognized a
CHEESEHEAD ( I think it was GOLDEN ) in one of "those" shop windows!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 02:28 - ID#255151)

If your clocks don't change, the markets in New York will open one hour earlier. We don't change times here in Indiana either ( with the exception of 4 counties ) .

(Mon Apr 06 1998 02:34 - ID#431263)
Spot Gold @ 309.40 UP 1.70!
Herr Myr--You sad piece of scheiss! What the h___ would you know about cheese in Amsterdam? You're probably one of those F_____ fags that wouldn't know a piece of A__ from a Big Mac! Shame on you! Didn't your mama and papa teach you any manners? Now go sit in your corner and contemplate your navel until you learn how to behave in public!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 02:35 - ID#347127)
@ Auric, @ Aztec

Stock market will open at 6:30 instead of 7:30 AZ time. The problem with changing times is that East Coast Kitco posters go sleeping one hour earlier now, so you and I are left rocking the cradle.

Aztec, make sure you have a Jeep paid off when you go south of the border, and plenty of provisions and some gold - the Sonoran jails leave a lot to be desired....

(Mon Apr 06 1998 02:39 - ID#347127)

Ahhhhhhhhhhh! Now you speak, four times I have posted to you with no response, at least now I hear you friend.......

(Mon Apr 06 1998 02:48 - ID#393224)
Aussie gold share update--at close.
Gold share index:
+++82.3 to 1301.4 ( +++6.75% )

Normandy + 10 to 1.76
Resolute +7 to 1.40
Acacia +16 to 2.18

AAAAAAAAAAAAnnnddd---drum rolllllllllllllllllll
Lihir +23 to 2.28
( One happy cheeseman!!! )
Here's a little yeeehaaaaaaaaaaaa!!! for both of us!!!

Add 82 to Bill Buckler's chart and see how Aussie gold shares have taken off!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 02:49 - ID#255304)
It's a Nissan and it's paid for.
As for the Sonoran Jails, saw an ASU buddy of mine in there one night. Cost me 1 case of BUD in cans, $40 and a swatch watch. He's sitting comfortably in Scottsdale now!
It seems to be a perception issue down there, how you see it and how the federale see's it. Like most matters in life it is a matter of negotiation. Respect and electronics ( walkman, radio, etc ) go a long way.
El coyote calls early, adios!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 02:55 - ID#431263)
Now I can buy me and Myr a plane ticket outa' Amsterdam! Prost! And a tip of the Goldener Kaesekopf to you and yours in Aussieland! I AM ONE HAPPY CHEESEHEAD heute, mate!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 03:00 - ID#340302)
@HAGGIS...what's happening with PEGASUS (psgqf)?
...maybe some "good" news coming round the bend??

Fill me in, my kilt-clad, insider friend.


(Mon Apr 06 1998 03:09 - ID#255151)

Unfortunately, Mena is lumped together with all the wacko theories out there. I think it deserves a serious, open minded look. Here is a good summary--

(Mon Apr 06 1998 03:21 - ID#284255)
Is this man an idol or what?
Thanks mate, I got your email.
Will go for a look.

Dave in CO
(Mon Apr 06 1998 03:32 - ID#229103)
He's an idol for the idle ( tax money leeches. )

(Mon Apr 06 1998 03:32 - ID#266105)
@Fidelity Select American Gold renamed Gold Fund

The requirement that FSAGX invest 80% of its assets in
North, Central and South America is being removed with name
change to Gold Portfolio to comply with SEC Name Test Rule.

One of the larger PM funds with $322M in assets as of
third quarter '97, 56% Canada, 5% Peru and 35% U.S. at that
time. Fund allocations will be shifted from the Americas
to other geographic locations. Date for shareholder response
to proposed fund changes is May 13, 1998.

The sister fund FDPMX had assets of $196M reported
on August 31, 1997, same fund manager and following allocations:

Australia: 13.5%

Canada: 33.4%

South Africa 21%

U.S. 27%

(Mon Apr 06 1998 03:35 - ID#252127)
THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS....Hope they fu*in choak on them.

Anticipate One trillion yen of dollar buying.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 03:40 - ID#340302)
@JACK...I checked out the article you mentioned...
...absolutely none of the sources are named...not the bank sources nor the interviewee sources...what does that tell you?

It's another planted piece of propaganda by dollar bulls and gold shorts...devoid of any credibility.


(Mon Apr 06 1998 03:42 - ID#340302)
@JACK...hey, Jack, relax...DON'T WORRY...BE HAPPY... are on board the best global investment there is...GOLD.


Dave in CO
(Mon Apr 06 1998 03:51 - ID#229103)
You got it. Mena is the place to look. Unfortunately, both the Republocrats and the Demopublicans would be in jeopardy; i.e., a replay of 1776 may be the only solution.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 03:51 - ID#255151)

Your 03:42--"Gold is the best global investment to be in now." That simply and elegantly states my view on Gold as well.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 03:54 - ID#253418)
So much interest
I'm with who ever it was earlier who suggested a fee be imposed on this web site to help Bert or Brett or who ever's great idea and hard work keeps this going. I agree its worth something. Heck its my first choice, I pay $5 for James Crammer's stuff and he hasn't mentioned gold yet, I dont think. I've been reading here mainly. $5 fee will drop off some lurkers and perhaps keep the serious people interested.

We're going to need good information if gold heats up in the years ahead. What's the Webmaster have to say.

Re $30k gold - the real issue is what will that price be in purchasing power. The DOWQ has risen 10 times the rate of inflation so I'd puit a price ast $2,000 - $3000 in real dollar terms as a possiblilty if the convergence of events we are beginning to witness comes to pass. How many big moeny folks have to shift a small percent of their wealth to gold and silver and related to see an ignition tha'll bring in every technical system and news letter to the party.Just look at internet stocks - a mania could return to gold, too and $2000 ( real dollar ) is not out of the question, in my mind.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 04:04 - ID#93199)
2BR02B? ( @Fidelity Select American Gold renamed Gold Fund ) ID#266105:

Where did you find the info you posted here about the changes
in FSAGX & FDPMX?? Thanks in advance.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 04:05 - ID#393224)
G'day 500
I start worrying when things go up so far so quickly. However, there are a lot of past sins to make amends for. Remember that all these gold sales and other propaganda pushed gold down faster and farther than the natural course of events would have taken it in a bear market. Now for the comeUPance. Few more days like today and I'm gonna need a throat transplant from all the yeeeehhaaaawing. Correction soon and then......

I shall be humble, as we have a long way to go...
I shall be humble, as we have a long way to go...
I shall......

(Mon Apr 06 1998 04:10 - ID#284255)
And the beat goes on.

Investigations In Progress . . .
 David Guyatt
1 September 1997

The recently announced Winterthur takeover by Credit Suisse group leaves the Swiss banking giant ranked "as Europes third largest financial services group, and the third largest global asset manager with assets under management of SFr700bn," according the Financial Times of London - which added "... big trends [are] pushing banks and insurance companies together: increasing concentration in the financial services industry..."

This blurring of traditional financial sector boundaries, following widespread global deregulation, has resulted in a new form of banking known as "bancassurance."

Hitherto, the most successful bancassurance merger was that of ING Group, the Dutch giant that was created following the merger of Nationale Nederlanden - the largest insurer in the Netherlands - and NMB Postbank, the then third largest bank. ING rushed to the rescue of Barings - Britains oldest Merchant bank following its collapse in February 1995.

Many questions remain unanswered regarding the collapse of Barings. The Bank of England investigation into the affair was a clumsy whitewash. Out of pocket Noteholders engaged in a legal manoeuvre to have Leeson returned to London where he could speak openly about what really occurred. This resulted in the notoriously politicised Special Fraud Office ( SFO ) forceably taking over the Noteholders law case and cancelling it "In the Public Interest."

Unrevealed at the time were the regular visits made to Barings, by Sir ( now Lord ) John Cuckney, a former MI5 official and Director of Midland banks trade finance subsidiary International Trade Services ( ITS ) . Lord Cuckney was a central figure in the British "Arms to Iraq" affair that led to the peculiar Scott inquiry. The exact circumstances regarding British banks financing of the arms trade is said to have been placed "off limits" to Lord Justice Scotts investigation. However, Cuckney, a close colleague of Stephan Kock - the one time head of Group 13, an unofficial British assassination squad - and the now disgraced Jonathan Aitken of Aitken Hume bank, is said to be an "untouchable."

Meanwhile, the following outline was heard in the boardroom of Credit SuisseAccording to a Credit Suisse source, leading banks have privately agreed amongst themselves that within three years, the six largest banks will, in the words used: "run the show." Those who dont make one of the the top six spots, will be left out in the cold - presumably to wither into oblivion.

The confidential agreement between top bankers to acquire one of the coveted top six slots, is said to be a first-past-the-post arrangement. It is believed that this is a private plan to cartelise the financial services industry. In any event, it is, apparently, the guiding principal behind the spate of various takeovers and buyouts that now regularly feature in the news - as the big players jockey for position to become one of the jumbo players.

It is not yet known if these "top six" are a phenomenon of a European banking agreement or part of a larger, global strategy. Of interest, however, is the recent merger between Nations Bank and Barnet that leaves Nations bank in the top three slot in the US. Meanwhile, sources say that a weather eye should be kept on Nations bank which is rumoured to have some interesting connections in Japan.

Once a giant of the US banking industry, Bank of America, has now been shunted into fourth place by Nations bank. The top two slots are held by Citicorp and Chase. The latter was subject to industry rumour that it was on the brink of ruin which forced its merger with Chemical bank. DT

(Mon Apr 06 1998 04:11 - ID#266105)

Hey Schippi, nice site. Shareholder materials arrived
in the mail last week with changes for all Select funds.
Little expense recalculations and stuff.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 04:13 - ID#255151)

The thing that bugs me about ANOTHER is that he never makes things clear and simple. The idea that these matters are too complex to state clearly is bunk. If you can't state a concept in a brief, simple way, then you either don't understand it or you are deliberately muddying the waters. He could start by giving us an idea of how many US Dollars does he foresee for one ounce Gold in 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months. Your best guess please. Here are mine--$325, $360, and $410.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 04:17 - ID#252127)

Thanx; but I'm not like Ole Heavy Hitter, but will back my semi at the comex warehouse quicker than you can say Jack Flash when I get the signal.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 04:33 - ID#253418)
Firerworks tonight
While America sleeps the metals markets are lighting up. Look at Plat and Palladium up a cool $15 bucks each. Watch out SWC shareholders, new all time highs coming soon to a quote board near you.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 04:33 - ID#257148)
nature's bounty
2B&c your 14:27
v, impt. Many maori traps were devised around this simple observation. PVC piping just uses modern materials. Our native rail the Pukeko, fall for it. And if noone understands what we just said----

For gold to get to $30,OOO is for that small item of knowledge to be worth a lifetime of eating. May it never happen. Yet, because it is so inconceivable, it is worth serious consideration on this, the one time contrarian conclave of kitco.. perhaps our thinking is devolving, at last into main stream. How far ahead of the crowd can you speculate? And, retain your standard of living? Who can kill a bird without a gun?


(Mon Apr 06 1998 04:35 - ID#284255)
I thought it srtange how he said he would be gone for a while.
Then he comes back after watching the $30,000 contagion ripple it's way through Kitco and adds a couple more comments.

The comments today that he sees:
"When any commodity becomes money, the free market is not allowed to produce such without laws to govern that production. As any person, worldwide can produce dollars and sell them as a business, it is "against the law". In the time to come, it will be this way with gold also. "

Leads me to believe that he is aluding to Gov't control of gold.
When questioned about this he declines to answer.

It seems like he wishes to remain MYSTERIOUS and just out of reach.
Any direct pinning down by questions from Kitcoites always ends with him answering in a non direct manner.

He could have come on here months ago and said that gold was going to be repriced to the stratosphere and that the Gov'ts would ultimately take control.

But then his story would be told in one post.
I presume that this is not what he wants.

He is a master story teller who has the ability of drawing the crowds to listen.
But he never gets to the end of his story cause then all would wander on to the next story.

I do not doubt that he has a source of information from whence his story unfolds.
But I do see that he is trying to string his story along for what it is worth.

I believe that he should come out with his full thoughts - if he is serious.
Or he should desist from stringing along a bunch of goldbugs - who will regardlessly listen to his every word whilst sitting on the edge of their keyboards.

One and all of us have a story to tell but to string it out for six months and never get to the point smacks of a story teller.

And the art of a story teller is to have a captivated audience.

So far he has suceeded - admirably so.

I give him full points but would like to know his motives.
To captivate the audience or to profit from the fluctuations of gold.
Come back and tell us some more please.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 04:41 - ID#253418)
One Trillion yen
Looks likle part of Japanese institution buying slated for April has already started flowing into the metal markets, or somebody over there in Europe got excited about something. Hey we didn't get this much a pop out of the Sadan Hussein scare.. Shows it's money flows that matter.

Up $5 in gold, $29,685 more dollars to go.

Anybody heard what's behind this move.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 04:47 - ID#266105)

One picks up things along the way. Never tried it but
assured it works, from old friend, big, strapping Finlander
and builder of fine log homes. He had his own method for
collecting the precious-- rings, earrings, shiny pence--
big raven called Nevermore on his shoulder with a pencant
for shiny things-- gum wrappers, anything-- and a known
stash place flown away to. "Gee, I'm sorry."

(Mon Apr 06 1998 04:47 - ID#253418)
South African gold stocks
Yahoo reports South African gold stocks up 10%!!!


(Mon Apr 06 1998 04:54 - ID#284255)
Want a thrill?

Go and have a look at what's happening to GCM8.
It's moving up in an accelerating mode.
Sort of parabolic like.
Up a couple of bucks in 20 odd minutes.

Go gold!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 04:57 - ID#228283)
Hello, Night Shift Guys...

Comex Gold $313.80 ....ya gotta love it !!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 04:59 - ID#393224)
Futures update
June gold 313.80 +3.50
May silver 6.62 +4.5
July plat 411.70 ++8.20
June Pall 265 +4.00

Betcha APH can't sleep!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 05:01 - ID#257148)
Quoth the raven--Beg your pardon?
Your friend's story has the ring gotterdamerung ( sp? ) of truth to it. These are some of the reasons that I am just an ordinary, ornry, 'orny ornithologist. I have caught birds in funnel shaped traps, lassoos, and snares.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 05:07 - ID#257148)
POG and nite shift- happy to oblige
Yes, we love it. THis was one of the 3 pillars of the gold bull that a poster from a long time ago ( and ANOTHER universr ) George C Cole used to say would be the start of the gold bull. When physical led precious.

I wonder where he is now?


(Mon Apr 06 1998 05:08 - ID#39828)
Its been a Dr Tim Leary sort of a day
Message being. Drop out of idustrials, techs, and money s/trippers.
Tune into the motherlode Sir G. Cheesehead speaks of. It beckons
with a bossom that will drown us all. Gigantor gi gann-a-an tor.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 05:15 - ID#266105)

I just blast'm, but not for ten years. Last time
out ( ducks ) we got five. Tickets.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 05:16 - ID#255151)
sharefin 04:35, Nick of Canberra

sharefin--Yes, I have to confess that I do read every post from ANOTHER. Forteans would be as interested in the "ANOTHER phenomenon" itself, as they are in content of his posts. Where else but Kitco, eh? Nick--For the reasons you stated, Gold does have that potential built under it to take off suddenly. Who knows? Maybe we're into it now. Go Gold!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 05:16 - ID#393224)
Gold shorters REPENT!!!
There is still time for you brothers. REPENT and embrace the TRUE investment. Hallelujah brothers and may the gold be with you.

June gold 315 ++++++ 4.70!!!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 05:20 - ID#228283)
Gold now @$314.80...

and I don' have enough....ah greed. Gotta go get more! Goodnight, from the chilly Midwest. ; . )

(Mon Apr 06 1998 05:21 - ID#284255)
GCM8 =
High of $315.7

Now at $315.5 and going UP!!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 05:22 - ID#393224)
Exquisite timing, mate!!

Mr. Mick
(Mon Apr 06 1998 05:23 - ID#345321)
Just woke up.......What did my eyes see??????!!!!!!
the PMs are going like the Space Shuttle!!!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 05:28 - ID#393224)
Wake up Cananks!!!
Yer gonna get caught in the rocket exhaust!!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 05:28 - ID#257148)
ANOTHER as a fortean phenomena? -- auric ? Good thinking!

Nick@Cathedra getting Messianic?

Auric getting fortean?

Oh! Woe!
The end is nigh.

The end is nigh.

{don't you mean, Night?}

{Oh. That's right.}


(Mon Apr 06 1998 05:30 - ID#253418)
What happened - Russia say No to Plat and PLD exports
Spot Plat and PD prices are jumping $10 more than the futures. Seems somebdy want to get their hands on the stuff.

Now I'm real disappointed silver can't get into gear. NOw down one cent whil gold flirts with a $6 dollar gain. May be the weak industrial numbers out of the UK.

It's alright I have all the bases covered - as in craps if you bet on enough things you'll only loose a little every time.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 05:32 - ID#393224)
Hallelujah brother Auracious!!

May we have a moment of silence for the gold shorters!!!

( silence )


(Mon Apr 06 1998 05:33 - ID#39828)
Ho ho ho ho
Aint we a happy bunch of rocket scientists tonight. Gryphon is
on the flag of Indonesia. Eagles head, Tigers body.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Mon Apr 06 1998 05:33 - ID#384350)
store of value
Excuse me mr RJ but hasn't the FRN ( USD ) lost 97% of its value to gold in this century? Hasn't the USD lost roughly 90% of its value to gold in the last 25 years. It appears that you try to cover up the truth with lies.

Gold dust
(Mon Apr 06 1998 05:35 - ID#431206)
Guess Who's buying........
Seems to me the Russian market just opened and look at gold rise

(Mon Apr 06 1998 05:51 - ID#255151)
Russian Gold Buying?

Where do the big Russian Gold players buy their Gold? Which exchanges?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 05:56 - ID#393224)
Ruskies haven't got two rubles to rub together. Shorts are caught by the 'short' and curlies and are bailing out!!!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 06:01 - ID#393224)
Sue Herreira, where are you?? I'm in the mood...

(Mon Apr 06 1998 06:06 - ID#255151)

Some news event will be trotted out to explain Gold's uptick this a.m. Any guesses?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 06:10 - ID#266105)

F* the inconceivable.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 06:15 - ID#284255)
May Pork Bellies up 5.1%
Pork bellies out shining gold.
The pigs are getting fatter.

And Greece is on a roll up 4.08%


Fortean - the age of a young girl I once knew.
Alas she is now the same age as me.
Fortean x three.

Perhaps another meaning?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 06:16 - ID#185448)
Must be the hell of a short-sellers nightmare to start a week like that.

"Just an insignificant correction due to recent lows, in fact supporting a sustained rally in the DOW."

(Mon Apr 06 1998 06:17 - ID#35767)

Mr. Mick
(Mon Apr 06 1998 06:23 - ID#345321)
Off to work, guys and gals...............
don't let the PMs go too high ( ?! ) :- ) )

(Mon Apr 06 1998 06:30 - ID#284255)
Who is going to buy bonds now?
Psssst, Psssst.
Hey, wanna buy some bonds?
Perhaps we could trade you some gold?

We got lots of bonds to sell,
But haven't got rid of enough gold, yet.

Now what sort of conversion rate do you want to do the deal at?
Bonds @ 1/3 the rate of gold.

Gee whiz, that sounds attractive.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 06:31 - ID#317193)
Just woke up, I think
I'll read the posts to see why . Tom

(Mon Apr 06 1998 06:40 - ID#30116)
All of the metals moving in the same direction! :- )

(Mon Apr 06 1998 06:41 - ID#266105)
@media feedback loop

CNBC spin on rise in London gold price is speculation
on European central bank 30% gold backing.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 06:42 - ID#252197)
Ring Ring Ring
Is that phones I hear ringing?

Catching the sleeping shorters like fresh fallen

snow on a winter night.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 06:48 - ID#35767)
By stating 30% gold backing they are setting it up for the RUMOR that it in fact may not be that high then Rubin et al can come in with a raid. Notice how they state the high end of what Europe might do. Very clever.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 06:57 - ID#255151)
Good night all.

One last prediction--Kitco will be difficult to access today. Go Gold!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 06:58 - ID#286199)
WOW! JGAI up 11%!
Some Analysts Are Taking A Shine to the Price of Gold


The words "euphoria" and "gold" haven't been used in the same sentence in quite a while. Until now. With gold-futures prices climbing 12% from their longtime lows only three months ago to Friday's close at $310.30 an ounce ( a percentage gain that isn't far below the pace of the ebullient U.S. stock market ) , "there's quite a lot of euphoria being spread around," said Anthony Warwick-Ching, a metals analyst at Flemings Global Mining Group in London. Friday's figure was the highest closing for the
June contract since November.

Behind the sudden shift in sentiment is the approaching creation of a European central bank: more to the point, a European central bank that
intends to hold some gold reserves. Fears that the bank would sell much of the remaining 440 million ounces that are held by European central banks had been one of the big factors that drove gold-futures prices to 18-year lows of $277.50 an ounce just a few months ago.

"There's a feeling that much of the bad news is out of the way," Mr. Warwick-Ching said. "We now know there will be gold" in the Euro central bank ( ECB ) .

Belgians' Position

Last month, Belgium announced a gold sale of 9.6 million ounces, but then added that its long sales program was finished and that gold should play a part in the ECB's reserves. Bank of Italy governor Antonio Fazio has said the ECB should put 30% of its reserves in the precious metal. Jean-Claude Trichet, governor of the Bank of France and a nominee for the
head of the future European bank, also has endorsed the idea of putting some gold in the new bank's vaults. The pronouncements have eased some of the doomsday predictions in the metals markets.

These are "key calculations," says Vahid Fathi, senior metals and mining analyst for ABN Amro Chicago Corp. "Their impact one way or the other will establish the direction of gold prices for years."

Mr. Fathi drew up three likely scenarios unfolding from the new European central bank. In the first, 15 potential ECB member countries would bring their gold reserves down to 10%, unleashing nearly 300 million ounces of gold, a "big-time negative" worth years of production, he said. But more likely, Mr. Fathi added, is a scenario in which most of Europe's big gold holders -- France, Italy and Germany -- keep their metal. Other nations may need to buy some gold to stay in line with the rest of their
Euro-partners, he noted. Indeed, Belgium's National Bank chairman said the gold sold by his country was bought by five other central banks.

Analyst's Estimate

Edward Kempf, a metals analyst for research firm CPM Group in New York, says prices probably will move higher to $320 an ounce as the expected decision by the European central bank approaches in May or June.
Friday's close of $310.30 for gold for June delivery was up $6.10 from the day before on the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division. Recent central-bank statements are "a very positive sign for the gold market" Mr. Kempf said. Because of the statements, some traders have boosted their expectations on the amount of gold the Euro will hold
to 30% of its reserves. The 11 countries on the inside track for acceptance into European monetary union hold about 23% of their reserves in gold.

But there is still a chance that the ECB could decide to hold less gold, Mr. Kempf warned. "If the ECB wants less than 20%, then gold will be shipped back to the domestic central banks. Then, what will they do with the extra gold?" he asked.

That is the core of the issue that many traders have forgotten recently, say gold bears who believe sales of the metal will continue. During the past nine years, gold sales have accelerated because holding dollars and other financial assets has been more lucrative. The Netherlands, Belgium, Canada, Australia and Argentina all have publicized gold-sales programs.

"There will certainly be more sales, with or without the permission of the ECB," writes Ted Arnold, metals analyst for Merrill Lynch & Co. in London, in a report sent to clients last month. "We would be extremely
surprised if the gold-mobilization policies of the individual European central banks did not continue more or less unhindered after the ECB is created."

Mr. Arnold and other bearish analysts foresee growing pressures on individual European countries to sell gold for fiscal purposes. "A national government will view the gold sitting in its central-bank vaults as a treasure trove and an easy substitute for having to raise taxes," he said.

Other Problems

The precious metal suffers from other problems. Many analysts say mining companies will unleash gold onto the market any time the bullion price peeks above $305 an ounce, extinguishing any rallies. In addition, Asia's important physical demand for the metal continues to suffer as financial problems in the region persist.

Meanwhile, the fundamental economic backdrop that brought gold down sharply in 1997 hasn't changed much. Stocks and bonds continue to outperform hard assets such as gold, and investors who once bought the yellow metal as a hedge against higher prices have been chased away by the lowest inflation in decades.

But some value-minded investors have taken a liking to the metal since its price dropped below $279 an ounce in January. American Eagle gold-coin sales jumped 62% during the first quarter of 1998 from a year ago, while new money flowed into gold mutual funds in four out of the past five weeks, mutual-fund tracker AMG Data Services reported.

With strong rallies in silver and platinum helping, precious metals have outpaced all subsectors of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index this year. Gold, a laggard last year, has been the fourth-best performer in the 22-commodity index.

Bully Beef
(Mon Apr 06 1998 07:03 - ID#259282)
Please let it be true.
And don't let some%^&#*&^ central bank sell a load of it today.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 07:04 - ID#348127)

Anyone who believes hat they hear about gold on cnbc needs to have their head examined. TRUTH FROM THE MEDIA ABOUT BIG MARKET MOVES OR POG - YEA RIGHT
********** GO GOLD ***********

(Mon Apr 06 1998 07:07 - ID#286199)
South African Gold stocks are off and running^JGAI&d=t^JGLD&d=t

(Mon Apr 06 1998 07:09 - ID#432148)
Thanks for the WSJ article. I note ML is as usual bad mouthing my insurance. I look upon that the same as Business Week's famous anti stock cover some years back. Do I really smell a turn around this time? Up about six bucks in London! I like it. How much are those Monties, Bart :- )

(Mon Apr 06 1998 07:20 - ID#432148)
My guess on the gold upturn: Japan's problems, and some smart investors smell a top in the stock markets?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 07:23 - ID#393224)
Breaking News!!
Reuters ( April 06 )

In a shock announcement it has been reported that the President of the United States has acquired a gum disease of the nether regions.

Penis specialist, Dr. Irub Lightly, has examined the President and reports that the affliction is the first reported case in the annals of medical history. "It must have been something to do with the climate in Washington, D.C.," reports Dr. Lightly. "We can find no other causitive factor for the disease."

Dr. Lightly reported that "The President justs wants to get back to his work for the American people" and would soldier on.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 07:32 - ID#286199)
Parting shot
The overall market for South African stocks is going up, not just the mining companies. Money is coming in from somewhere.^JSAI&d=t

Apparently, Europe isn't as worried about the country as some of Kitco's SA detractors. My U.K. contacts say the money managers have lots of cash and are looking for places to put it. The U.S. market is considered over-valued. Y'all have a good trading day now, y'hear.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 07:41 - ID#289357)
A. Goose
I contacted the World Gold Council to see if they could give me the historical data on COMEX elligible stocks........received a reply this morning that





(Mon Apr 06 1998 07:44 - ID#238295)
Looks like the financial god RJ has bombed out again. His day is done..He is a fanatic gold bear who cannot recognize changing times. All who followed his recent advice are either losing heavily or missing out on huge profits.

RJ: I at least have learned from my past mistakes. Will your learn from your disastrous calls this year?

Great to have a real big long position on a day like this. Right Farfel, DA, Ray and all the other long suffering bulls.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 07:45 - ID#248180)
Russia - PGM "Delayed Again"

LONDON -- ( Reuters ) A further delay to Russian exports of platinum group metals ( PGMs ) may drive prices sharply higher, with actual deliveries seen up to two months away, analysts and industry sources said on Friday.

Russian promises that palladium exports would have started by the end of March and platinum exports by mid-April have been unfulfilled so far and deliveries may only begin in June as a result of the country's latest political crisis, they said.

"People are talking about only supplying in June now," a South African platinum industry source said.

Macquarie Equities metals analyst Kamal Naqvi agreed, saying: "This delay could last for a good month to two months."

Russia is the world's largest producer of palladium and the second-largest of platinum after South Africa. Exports of Russian platinum and palladium have been suspended since December 1997, pushing prices sharply upwards.

Analysts said export decrees had been ready for weeks waiting for Russian President Boris Yeltsin's signature.

The decrees would allow palladium and platinum to reach Russia's main market in Japan, where the metals are used mainly for automobile catalytic converters and platinum jewelry.

But even Russia's Finance Minister Mikhail Zadornov is in the dark and does not know when exports will resume, according to Dr John Helmer, a Moscow-based analyst with South African investment bank Standard Bank.

"Based on talks with Russian Finance Minister Mikhail Zadornov this morning, I can tell you that Zadornov does not know when or whether President Yeltsin will sign the export quota for precious metals," Helmer said during a telephone conference call with analysts in the U.S. and Europe on Thursday.

With Yeltsin's dismissal of the entire government last month and the ensuing political wrangling, the PGM export decrees have been moved to the back stage, analysts said.

"There seems to be an added dimension this year in terms of internal politics. There are more hurdles in the way this year than in the past," Flemings Global Mining Group analyst Tony Warwick-Ching said.

Russian exports of palladium and platinum were also delayed last year, which led to higher prices.

This year, palladium powered to an 18-year high in March while platinum was trading at prices not seen since October 1997.

Russia's metal woes have been compounded by a harsh stance taken by major Russian platinum-palladium producer Norilsk Nickel .

"It is not only a political problem, but there is also a problem with Norilsk itself who have withdrawn or kept back metals because they felt they should be receiving a higher price for it," the industry source said.

Norilsk delivers its metal to a state depository for export through state trade group Almazuvelirexport.

Norilsk said last month it had already lost $50 million through unsold PGMs because Moscow had not approved the order allowing export quotas.

A Norilsk spokesman said late in March that the present situation on PGM exports was the same as last year.

"Government officials say that the exports are to be organized according to the rules, but there are no rules," the spokesman was reported as saying.

Standard Bank's Helmer said this year's battle over PGMs was between the Finance Ministry and the Central Bank over who should control the portion of the quota to be sold.

Warwick-Ching said the market would remain tight until actual physical deliveries of platinum and palladium.

"It is a case of believe it when we see it." (  ( c ) 1998 Reuters

(Mon Apr 06 1998 07:49 - ID#393224)
J'burg gold +++12.25 %^JGAI&d=t

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:00 - ID#26793)
G10 Central Bankers are watching stock market closely; have drawn no conclusions.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:04 - ID#393224)
The Russians are the best chess players in the world!!
Do not expect any palladium or platinum soon.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:08 - ID#393224)
The Russians are the best chess players in the world!!
Do not expect any palladium or platinum soon.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:09 - ID#26793)
FLASH! Ted Arnold claims Buffett has sold one third of his silver position.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:09 - ID#411233)

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:10 - ID#411149)
feels goood
Old Gold- It feeelllssss gooooooooood!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Like bein
alive again.

Thanks for EXPOSING the RJ RAT!

Tally Ho

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:20 - ID#20135)
On this Wonderful Morning I would Like to repeat... Comex has ONLY 148,278 ounces of gold
eligible for delivery!!!!

375,000 gold contracts in the last 6 days. If 0.4% of those contracts decide to take delivery Comex's eligible gold stocks are gone.

Date: Mon Apr 06 1998 01:10
farfel ( @A.GOOSE..."WE DON'T CARE...WE ARE BUYING MORE ( and taking delivery ) )
...your revised slogan is closer to the truth than you will ever imagine.

I "think" there is a little surprise in store for the gold market soon.

Thanks again.


Date: Sun Apr 05 1998 19:19
arden ( No, A. Goose, you can't buy gold at Comex price ) ID#201238:

Thanks for your detailed answer on comex's involvement in setting the buy and sell prices of bullion.

The base still seems to me that the comex ( which is mainly a paper gold market sets the outside spot
prices ) . I want to go over you post a few more times and think on it. Thanks for the effort you put in on


Just wnated to remind everyone that at the end of trading on Friday comex had 148,278 ounces of gold bullion eligible for delivery. Friday paper gold traded 6.5 million ounces ( 65,000 contracts ) . If 1490 contract that traded on Friday decided to take delivery:

1 ) Their contract price would not go up, since it has already been set.

2 ) Comex would be out of eligible gold for delivery.

3 ) Gold would be shocked into a new trading level ( though I am not sure it would be at the COMEX ) .

4 ) ANOTHER's point now comes into play... if spot gold no longer traded how would our gold stocks be valued ??? I would like to suggest we not worry about their value, but that we get them to pay us dividends in bullion.

How could comex stocks be depleted?

1490 contracts is only 2.29% of the contracts that traded on Friday alone.


Gold 65,000


Gold 30,000


Gold 25,000


Gold 30,000

New York-March 27-FWN
Gold 75,000


Gold 85,000


Gold 65,000

375,000 contracts in the last 6 days. If 0.4% of those contracts decide to take delivery Comex's eligible gold stocks are gone. No change is price --- BECAUSE they have already had the sale price set. IN fact, since it seems you can get the bullion only by taking delivery on future contracts, the delivery price would probably range from $300 to $315 per ounce ( loose guess based on contract purchased and how far in advance othis month's delivery date ) .

With a minimum amount of effort, comex can be under seige. I strongly suspect the same situation holds with the LBME. I believe that Comex can easily come under seige from Japan, China,... or just some aggressive hedge fund.

I suggest we change the call to:

We don't care ... We are BUYING MORE and TAKING DELIVERY!!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:30 - ID#426220)

For Nick@C ( J'burg gold +++12.25 % ) & Especially CHEEZEHEAD

We have designed a special chart which depicts $100,000 vestments in each security on January 1, 1998 to demonstrate the South African gold stocks have and will continue to OUT-PERFORM their North-American counter-parts. The chart will be updated at the close of every business-day. We owe our thx to CHEEZEHEAD, who motivated the creation of this chart. The securities are Durban Deep, Harmony Gold, Randgold & Exploration, Barrick Gold, Fidelity Select American Gold Fund, XAU Gold & Silver Index and Spot Gold.

So as not to abuse Kitco hospitality I will ONLY announce this once as a courtesy. The chart may be found at following location. Remember to delete the extra letters "en" in the URL before pasting to your location finder.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:31 - ID#375108)
South African, North American...
Australian, European, Asian, who the h*** cares. GO gold stocks and wake up, TED!! Bart, ever think of fumigating K-II?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:37 - ID#20135)
Remember those unfreindly to this rally use the media to spread "rumors"
be careful of Merrill and their sources. Warren has NEVER been a trader.


Date: Mon Apr 06 1998 07:41
Silverbaron ( A. Goose ) ID#289357:

Totally Amazing, Silverbaron. But this whole situation is Amazing. Thanks for checking the World Gold Council. It gives us another peiece of information that validates this insanity that has been controlling the free market in gold.

Date: Mon Apr 06 1998 07:45
Junior ( Russia - PGM "Delayed Again" ) ID#248180:

Great information on Russia and platinum and palladium. Russia is obviously in TERRIBLE shape, but PEOPLE have been able to drive down and/or hold platinum and palladium prices down with whimsical news releases for nearly a year. It may be coming to an end. Palladium was around $160 a year ago, my God look at it now and it still has upside.

Donald, I just don't believe it. "Ted Arnold, precious metals analyst at Merrill Lynch, said bullion market sources had told him the U.S. investor had
sold at least a third of his 129.7 million ounce stake."

It seems to me Merrill has not been a supporter of pm market for some time. This story sounds like the old game used to drive the metals down. Just like the law suite that brought Warren to announce early that he legally purchased the silver.

We have to be very suspicious of these convenient "heard from unnamed sources stories".

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:41 - ID#411149)
Have not even seen CNBC post the GOLD price at the usual time.
Our best friend!

Tally Ho

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:45 - ID#368244)

Ray those 40, 310 Oct. calls are looking better maybe they will work out yet. GO GOLD !

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:47 - ID#20135)
Let us think about it...
What has happened to all of a sudden change the market in such a way that Warren can value value in stocks. NOTHING.

HE bought silver because it was low and he had no alternatives in the stock market. He bought at $4.50 range. Silver now sits at 6.48.

I do not believe this is the type of profit Warren generall hungers after.

I am very skeptical about Merrill's announcement. They must be short today.

Yes I own gold and silver and stocks areas. And I am not going to sell on Merrill's new release. Can somone tell us Merrill's market positon as regards silver???


(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:47 - ID#215208)
Whoops. What's happening to silver?
Silver down to 6.375

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:47 - ID#411112)
What a day to be on vacation,sorry about multi posts last nite I have no idea how that happened

let me blame it on WebTV...go gold

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:48 - ID#23782)
I swill a cup of java to another 6 figures for you.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:49 - ID#368244)

E- MAIL them demand they put some pro gold people on, it works.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:51 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter
With the way SPM8 is raging up the hill:
These comments seem apt.
Japan did not go down cause Hasimoto promised to bring in new stimulus measures..... I believe this is the 19th time he has said as much....very encouraging talk ...THIS time I think we should believe him!

very mixed reaction over in asian ...some up some down some sideways ....over in europe seems like the same some up some down some sideways

Over in NA markets I expect today to be different....some down some up and some sideways

golds still climbin $313

yup gold does look a bit better these days

The aussie $ seems to like gold at higher prices.

same with the CD....the shine of gold seems to be rubbing off:}

FTSE heading slightly lower with Daxi holding around unchanged levels ..... wonder what a dippy is to do

USD losing some of it's luster....hmmm

if short rates decline, expect the rack to stretch you a bit more

samurai: this week should see major turning points, should indeed be interesting....

samurai: nothing about disasters though.

lots of short squeeze coming in various areas.

one of these hours a globex fill on the shortside might be the ultimate top

manias aint rational - at least you're in sync

nope they ain't rational but they can be very profitable

I've just been yakking with a trader who was a CBOE mkt maker back in '87. He re-iterated that, at that time, investors were buying calls and selling puts ( any put ) to pay for the call ... it was a lock, they were told by their brokers. At worst, the put would expire worthless and pay for the call, so ... no loss. The calls, naturally, were going to the moon. Sound familiar? Deja whoops? Thyen he said something which stopped me in my tracks. "So, I guess we will keep getting a reverse crash ... I have always said that one day we would get a 500+ UP move in the DJI just as we had that -500+ day in '87." ... Now that would be a fitting end to the bull ( at least for awhile ) . Great trading, folks.

only 500 points? I'm surprised at this gentlemans timidness

if we break 1126 cash, you may get to attend your own crucifixion

LOLROF samurai ... obviously he made no allowances for the inflated bubble bath we wallow in :o )

neely suggesting poss 8000 more up - sam would look like a telephone wire

Citicorp swallowing Travellers

hmmm, on a percentage basis we would need an upcrash of about 2k dow points.

... that would put some stretch marks on the mighty warrior, wouldn't it? ... 'course he'd have side bets goin' right, left and center :o )

hope they don;t choke

gold to the moooooon!!!!!! bbl

aint jesting either, - was accurate quote - sanity was never mandatory

... I know you weren't jesting. In this market, sanity is a liability, second only to intelligence :o )

I'd have no trouble shortin a dow 11k close today. LOL

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:51 - ID#286349)
CNBC not even showing Futures prices on the ticker at the normal times.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:56 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter
I musta miss sumthin when I took that stock market 101 course back in college ..... oh yeah now I remember ..... the professor mentionned sumthin about lookin for value out there,,,, I guess he was a bit old fashioned

today one doesn't look for value they seek to increase their risk

Well this market looks like it is going to crash. :- )

....and the justifaction to do so is to look at ones neighbour and content oneself with the knowlege that if someone one day should wake up to the fact that there is little or no value...he too shall be wiped out

just keep on buyin till it really hurts folks

'value' found only in dictionary of archaic english - no relevance to boomer boom

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:58 - ID#251166)
Boy, I wish I'd bought more gold.
 Boy I wish I'd bought more gold.

 Son, you spent everything you had and then some. You're maxed out on gold.

 I know, huh. Still I wish I had some more.

 Well, don't it make you happy what happening? I mean, look at that riser!

 Oh yeah, you bet I'm happy. I just wanna be happier.

 Happier, huh?

 Yeah. Say, maybe I should get a cash advance on my Visa and buy some more gold. By the time the statement comes I'd have made enough to pay it off plus the cash advance fee.

 You think that's wise?

 Well . . . or maybe I could just start buying some silver. Poor man's gold, ya know. And I am definitely a poor man now that I bought all that gold.

 Why can't you just hang in there with what you have?

 I suppose I could. But I already told all those Kitco people that I didn't care, that I was buying more.

 An ethics thing, I see -- owning up to your word . . .

 Yeah, yeah, that's it! So I gotta figure out how to buy more.

 Well, that yellow stuff you got stashed is pretty liquid. Just take it down to that coin dealer and he'll give you cash for it.

 You're right! But I need a lot of cash. Boy I wish I'd bought more gold.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:58 - ID#45173)
Reality check
Gold went from 378 to 385 between the start and middle of Oct. 1996 before dropping to 337 ( -48 ) by the middle of the Feb 1997 when it rallied back up to 363 ( +26 ) . It the dropped back down to 320 ( -43 ) in Sept 1997 before rallying again to 342 ( +22 ) and then dropped to the dreadful low of 282 ( -60 ) in Dec 1997.

Question: How can we tell if we are looking at a gold rally or an upward trend? My guess is that we are looking at an upward trend based on the fact we have a 4 month duration of increases, with some setbacks, between Dec 1997 to now. Gold news reporting is now not entirely negative as it was before, meaning more investors may have gold in mind when the look for shelter in a stock market reversal. Just a guess. Wishful thinking? Anyone?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 08:58 - ID#215208)
SI down
May silver as low as 6.25. What's going on?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 09:00 - ID#426220)

The Johannesburg ALLGOLD Stock Index was decisively penetrated in early morning trading. This breaks a 13-month long downtrend, heralding a new bull market in gold stocks worldwide.^JGAI&d=2y

(Mon Apr 06 1998 09:03 - ID#248180)
Could it be that PM's are really rare & in very SHORT supply? YES YES YES
Don't you just love the Russia PGM Delayed shipment article. Great timing. I hope they can't deliver until Dec.98. Just friendly self interest wishing & hoping.

Robnoel: Oscar Winner - Multi Poster: You should have taken Nick's advice "Stick your weenie into the fire do not bang it on the computer mouse trigger. Man, you were as rapid as Buck Rabbit in Heat on a fine Spring morning.

Good Night All - You Northen Kats & Kittens had better push those PM's up to say about ANOTHER 10% by our OZ Tuesday Dawn.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 09:03 - ID#20135)
It will be interesting to check the comex stocks tonight.
Merrill uses the power of the press. Will they be sued if this story turns out NOT to be TRUE.

They should be, but I suspect not, because the USG is not eager to have the pm's rally.

Warren should come out and comment on this rumor and NAIL merrill's hide Or validate the rumor.

A quick look at the comex silver stocks for the last month.

warehouse stocks:
350,603 0 0 0 0 350,603
130,307 0 0 0 0 130,307
480,910 0 0 0 0 480,910

0 0 36,531,320
-637,399 0 52,926,545
-637,399 0 35,156,745 ( 89,457,865 )

warehouse stocks:
GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

321,832 0 0 0 0 321,832
245,742 0 0 0 0 245,742
567,574 0 0 0 0 567,574


0 0 39,797,762
-1,030,883 0 49,119,761
-1,030,883 0 88,917,523

warehouse stocks:
GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

571,508 0 0 0 0 571,508
148,278 0 0 0 0 148,278
719,786 0 0 0 0 719,786


-1,211,672 0 35,968,042
1,211,672 0 50,957,881
0 0 86,925,923

At first glance it does NOT look like enough silver moved into comex for Warren to handle the transfer at comex. Of course, I have no idea about the LBME. But he chose to use Comex for his initial purchase.

I guess that is enough talk of silver this morning. Let us focus on gold, platinum and Palladium.... WOW!!!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 09:17 - ID#348129)
@AU Shorts
The shorts must be crappin their pants now! Veneroso reported the total OTC Gold shorts may be over 8000 tonnes!
Anybody here feel sorry and spare a little Gold for the Shorts?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 09:34 - ID#426220)

June Gold futures have been as high as 320.50 today.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 09:34 - ID#411149)
Maria @ CNBC
Hey gang Maria @ CNBC jest reported Morgan Stanley likes Gold Stocks!
Newmont and HEY TED, HEY TED- they like ABX.

Also reported seeing a bunch of shorts down @ the BAR havin breakfast.
One had already jumped out the winder. Actually they were arguin

Tally Ho

(Mon Apr 06 1998 09:35 - ID#398105)
MoReGoLd............... THE SHORTS......F... Them............

Being a "New Age" Scotsman, I don't really have a lot of time for the Poms..... BUT............

US$ 320 tonight ??????????

Looks like our Friend ANOTHER has got some BALLS.....Good on ya Mate....

(Mon Apr 06 1998 09:37 - ID#20135)
Did I hear correctly! Maria B. said some house has come out with a recommendation for Godl and Gold stocks.

I missed which house it was. I am sure it wasn't Merrill ( gag ) .

Maybe Morgan Stanley??

Silver is in short supply, fundatmentals strong, ... Someone call Warren and ask him to Set Merrill straight.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 09:40 - ID#426220)

The Gold & Silver stock index gaps 2.07 to 89.42

(Mon Apr 06 1998 09:45 - ID#333126)
re: the gold cupboard getting bare @ COMEX
thinking a little bit about the number of contracts delievered that it would take to empty the registered gold stocks at COMEX ( heck, why not the entire lot ) ...

When's the next delivery date due?

I can't wait to see a *spectacular* short squeeze ... but perhaps I wish too hard.

the gold shorts are getting scared, yes?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:07 - ID#398105)
Will it be................

A "High Noon" on Wall Street.......... and for our "friends" THE SHORTS.

What would Gary Cooper and John Wayne do...............

I hope THE SHORTS have watched CITY SLICKERS, because be city folks, they may well need a few pointers to survive............back to basics.... oh for the simple life........

Old Rothschild have been doing "the deed" on a number of operating companies here in Western Australia - no prisoners - Australian Gold Fields and Consolidated Gold NL.

Och Aye the Noooooooooooooooo..........

(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:09 - ID#183109)
Could you please clarify what a GAP is? When MR.SHORT's mouth drops open as he watches the gold ticker, doesn't that form a GAP?

Our Kitco S.A. triplets pulling away from the pack...up 10, 8, 6 % alphabetically : )

(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:14 - ID#251166)
Sorry, Bart, but your chart page is nearly inaccessible now.

Thanks in advance! dj

(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:15 - ID#401237)
Gold Does Trade

I guess Gold did trade last night?

Great site when it works.

XAU 90.43
Clinton free to order Gun Control now.


(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:16 - ID#246224)
Can somebody get a video camera ..
.. to record the shorts krapping in their pants. We need to retain this footage for posterity .. and to show ( over and over again ) at the Kitco "GOLD TO THE MOON" bash we're planning!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:21 - ID#401237)

We have to find another place to get spot Gold prices. Kitco doesn't work have of the time.

They may not be getting any Data??????

The problem is, no one knows who, what, when where, how, etc. etc. or anything about Gold trades. BIG SECRETE???????

313.10 CNBC


(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:29 - ID#373288)
and now something on Y2K to break up the monotony

(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:30 - ID#398105)
A small example of the Bhouys in action..........Rothschild

Around the traps.......

Australian Gold Fields owe Rothschild AU$ 40 million

Consolidated Gold NL owe Rothschild AU$ 15 million

Pegasus Gold Inc owe Rothschild, how much of the US$ 353 million potential default........

Given that these are only three examples, and given that Rothschild are the leading financiers of gold mining companies, I wonder how many other companies around the world owe them .....

Clearly the cumulative sums of outstanding debts could rise and rise.... BUT, Rothschild are not stupid - its the gold in the ground that counts.

And so, given that Rothschild set the gold price daily in London - how do the regain their "losses". Very simple, they take the GOLD price up, and up and UP and UPPPPPPP, and away.

I wonder..............

(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:35 - ID#251166)
@ HighRise
I guess I'd better confess. I was lurking Kitco this weekend but posted nothing. Instead I got onto other stock market discussion groups and posted this:

An Open Letter to Mr. Warren Buffett, CEO, Berkshire Hathaway, Inc.

Dear Mr. Buffett --

Were you aware that the entire physical gold at COMEX may now be purchased for as little as $50 million? As you know, there's a great deal of gold sales, leasing and forward selling ON PAPER, but little physical is actually being moved. The underground theory is that the gold isn't there. You like value. Gold is trading for more than $1,000 ounce for oil, albeit on a parallel but separate market ( cf. LBMA ) . With available physical at such low figures, and the price of gold so cheap, you, with your resources, are in a position to wrench a squeeze.

I wish, for the sake of yourself and your stockholders, that you would look into it. If you have any questions, please check into the Kitco Gold Discussion group on the web.

Dean W. Jones

So this may explain our serious access problems this morning, as well as POG's HIGH RISE :- ) . . . imho.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:37 - ID#431263)
Jerry Favors lookin' for a DOW TOP this week in the 9132 range and then a long overdue correction back to @ 8000! May have seen it this morning with that 110 pt. spike! Should we top out this week, the break out we saw on Friday and this morning in gold should continue and run until the shorts get squeezed out of the market. Since many of these shorts have considerable powder dry from all the money they made on the way down there is a lot of UPSIDE POTENTIAL STILL LEFT! I look for some dramatic swings both up and down as investors begin to adjust to the new reality shift away from paper to hard assets. One thing for sure, the premium on gold calls is going to go MUCH HIGHER TOGETHER WITH THE GOLD PRICE! The Citicorp/Travelers merger is yet another sign that ALL THE GOOD NEWS FOR FINANCIALS IS NOW IN THE MARKET!

Herr Vronsky--Like your new chart on G-E BUT I STILL WANT TO SEE LIHIR ON IT! After all the stock in OZ trading was UP 23 centavos to $2.28 for a gain of 11 1/4 perecnt last night! Somebody posted that the Japanese are looking to diversify into gold mining stocks and LIHIR ADR'S are near the top of their list! SOME BIG MONEY IS READY TO ENTER OZ GOLD STOCKS AND LIHIR IS ONE OF THE BEST OF THEM! THANKS TO YOU AND POLARBEAR FOR ALL YOUR EFFORTS! As you can tell I am ONE HAPPY CHEESEHEAD THIS AM and LIHIR IS BUT ONE MAJOR REASON WHY!

CCI UP 26+ to 169 and change!!! IF THIS AI'NT A MANIA I'LL EAT MY GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD! It's gonna' be fun watching the shift away from paper to gold! The movement has barely begun! ROLL OUT THE BARREL! WE'RE GONNA' HAVE A BARREL OF FUN! PROST TO ONE AND ALL WHO'VE BEEN WAITIN' FOR A DAY LIKE TODAY!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:40 - ID#286349)
June Gold now at $312.90
Whats up Shorts? Is this the best you can drag gold down to today? You can do better than that. Get it down so we can buy some more!!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:41 - ID#373288)
since everybody loves scenarios but only based on who presented them
I find it interesting to think of higher gold prices in this manner. Lets say that gold moves up and realigns itself with the other obviously exorbitantly priced things in the world.

Let us say gold goes to rediculous heights, you pick the number, the number is irrelevant in my mind for the sake of the exercise. Now lets say the dollar crashes, again, use your own figure.

In this scenario it is not difficult to see the value of gold reach what today would seem to be an unbelieveable price.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:42 - ID#251166)
AJPM web site just updated: Spot Gold at 301.40 . . . a typo? Or did something happen during the Kitco chart blackout? Need info!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:44 - ID#398105)
G'nite, forty winks time - going to sleep like a Babe.........

(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:45 - ID#298259)
Spot Gold
Last quote I heard on Bloomberg at 10:45 was 310.80 up $3.10.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:47 - ID#251166)
@ Frustrated re. spot @ $310.80
I was thinking it was something like that too. And if so, then we better buy some more from AJPM.

( not an advertisement )

(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:50 - ID#398105)
A TUG OF WAR..........

London vs New York........who is going to "win".......

My bet is London..........but it will not happen over night......


(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:50 - ID#316238)
TGL + XAU up nicely....I DON'T CARE, I'M PAYING MORE!!!!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:53 - ID#411112)

Question,am I going nuts,after banning guns, Bubba today he will then talk about how bad tobacco is,killing the children of America,now read I nuts?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:56 - ID#431263)
HEUTE IST DER TAG! HEUTE IST DER TAG! HEUTE IST DER TAG! CAN ANYBODY SAY T-----------------------------------O-----------------------------------P

(Mon Apr 06 1998 10:58 - ID#183109)
other QUOTE options
nothing stunning, but here are a couple options while Bart runs to the store for ANOTHER can of WD-40 to get his quote machine "unstuck".

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:00 - ID#431263)

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:00 - ID#317193)
Dow-Up then DOWN

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:01 - ID#251166)
Re. spot prices -- good sites. Thanks many ounces! dj

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:01 - ID#251268)
Taking delivery on Comex?
maybe I'm not thinking right but that scenario of buying
all the gold at comex is full of holes,of all the contracts
only april is bound to make delivery ( less than 900 contracts )
and if someone tried to buy alarge volume they would have to find
sellers which in this thin if a market ( GCJ8 ) Idoubt you would find
sellers?anyway it doesn't make sence to me.GO GOLD!!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:02 - ID#411112)
Three stocks moved the market this morning/Travlers,JP.Morgan,American-Ex. gollie gey..3 out of 30

ain't bad.....stock buyers...prepare to assume the position.....grab your ankels...

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:09 - ID#431263)
As Herr Robnoel pointed out only 4 DOW STOCKS LEADIN' THE DOW DOG HIGHER!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:10 - ID#251166)
Within less than a minute watching the Dow: +84, reload, +96, reload, +90, reload . . . What is happening there? These swings represent massive dollaration. Is the big strong guy teetering, drunk, staggering about the ring? Could it be that ( farfel forbid ) it's here?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:12 - ID#431263)
NOW 56-55-54 LOOK OUT LONGS!!!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:13 - ID#225273)
zeke, Market Comments
Here's a repost from Friday night. I had forgotten what I had written; been busy on other things this weekend.

To all:
Last night I wrote that we wouldn't know what would happen tomorrow until tomorrow, but I
was leaning toward some explosive action because of the "outside day" formation on the daily
charts of both gold and silver. I'd say today qualifies as explosive action.
In gold, here are the numbers I have. First, this is ten straight closes above the 100-day MA.
The 200-day MA sits at $308.64. Today's high was $308.50. The close was $307.95. Gold is
very close to its 200-day MA.
Last October, gold reached its 200-day MA at mid-week, but by week's end it had fallen off it
by a good bit. This is the first time in two years or so that gold has closed the week very near to
its 200-day MA. I'm looking for it to move above it next week, although there are no guarantees
it will be Monday.
In the XAU, going back to last Nov. 6, there was a downside gap still open on the daily chart
around the 84 level. Last week, the XAU moved into that gap and then fell back. Today, it
gapped open above it, which sort of makes the entire chart since last Nov. 6 a huge island in an
"island reversal". It may be that today's upside gap "never" gets filled and that this is a
"breakaway gap" which means big things are in store for gold stock investors.
Normally, when the 200-day MA is broken, after an initial run higher, a retest of the line is made.
We should see a pullback to this area at some point. If the XAU passes the test, then the next
resistance level should be around 110.
What's very encouraging to me is something that Old Gold mentioned last night: the reaction of
gold to the latest collapse in Asia. Each time before when Asian markets crumbled, gold
crumbled right along with it. This time gold is reacting differently. If someone can explain this, I'd
love to hear it.
Also, something that's been a concern to me is that since January, gold and the yield on the
30-yr. T-bond has been moving in tandem. And since the yield had penetrated its 100-day MA
but not its 200-day MA, like gold, and then had fallen back, I guess I've been a little worried
that gold would follow suit.
But it hasn't. In fact, the T- bond yield fell sharply today and this week. But gold has now started
moving in the opposite direction. Again, if someone can explain this, I'd like to hear it.
The action in Coeur d'Alene, Hecla, and Sunshine tell me that silver is to move much higher.
And, although I haven't thought they would do so this time, in the past, the South African gold
stocks have been upside leaders in legitimate gold upmoves. It seems they have assumed that
leadership role this time as well. And despite my personal grudges, I see what I see, whether I
like it or not.
The Vancouver Stock Exchange Index has hit a new high for the year. The average VSE stock
has not participated in the excitement yet. But some of the larger ones with for-real gold
deposits, like Francisco Gold, have done very well. I'm still holding onto my opinion, until proven
wrong, that once gold climbs convincingly above its 200-day MA, the exploration stocks in
Vancouver will catch fire. And nothing burns like the VSE, both up and down.
So things look good tonight. Let's not get carried away just yet. But like I said last night, good
times are almost here.
The Preacher

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:14 - ID#344308)

who has their tickets to what is going to be the
greatest show on earth?

we've known from whence the fell wind would blow. the
storm had stagnated over the it screeches
with the voices of a million me, my me.

the harvest of 69 years of man's endeavours is well nigh upon
us.......the swang song sung......

cherokee!; ) ....owner-of-24-gold-calls-----patiently-awaiting-flux

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:14 - ID#431263)

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:15 - ID#251166)
What's the url for your Dow info ( my page seems to be well behind yours ) . Thanks, dj

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:15 - ID#317193)
Exits-closing fast

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:18 - ID#431263)
Wacthing on the PC and CNBC REAL-TIME TICKER on the TV!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:21 - ID#22956)
what's the big deal?
You'd think gold was up $30,000 from all this chatter. Get yer undies outta yer cracks, EH! Gold up two and one half dollars. wow.
away....from the giddy school girls

go gold.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:24 - ID#251166)
@ Herr Golden Cheesehead
Danke, seor! So there really is something good that can come out of that box! Aloha, dj

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:26 - ID#340459)
Comments please..
PGU ( Pegasus ) has not moved up and remains at .67 as it was when POG was $298.00. Is it risky to hold on to it.

TVX, what is the upside potential, Bought it today at 6.15


(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:27 - ID#401237)


We are making money now! +28%+


(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:28 - ID#431263)

VENGOLD ( VENGF ) with a 10.3% stake in LIHIR UP 15.34% this morning from 1 3/16 to 1 3/8!! LIHIR ADR'S UP 3 1/2 to 31! ( UP 12.7% ) HEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE-HAWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:29 - ID#251166)
@ EB
Undies de-cracked. Hey, thanks for the right perspective ( tee-hee, tee-hee-hee ) .
Respectfully, dj

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:30 - ID#373403)
You and many others are missing the point when you say that $30,000/oz is just $300 with extra zero's and coffee will cost $200 a cup ( $2 plus two zero's )

This is not how I interpret Another's comment. Since everything is now valued in fiat money, the exchange value of goods is based on the quantity of money divided by the quantity of particular goods. Now, if money increases relative to goods you get price increases. Likewise if goods fall into short supply you get price increases. What Another is saying is that everything will be valued as it relates to gold when gold becomes MONEY!

The value of gold will be repriced to reflect the amount of money needed for commerce and banking. $30,000/oz times 2.64 billion ounces above ground ( very innacurate estimation of 110,000 metric tonnes ) is $79.2 trillion in global market capitalization. $30,000/oz is the price needed then at that level of capitalization for money to be fully redeemable for gold.

The price of a good mens suit will still be $400 in this circumstance because the amount of money and mens suits did not change. Only the relationship of gold to money changed. Money went from fiat to convertible.


(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:34 - ID#431263)
DANKE MEIN HERR for a most lucid presentation of what ANOTHER means when he speaks of a revaluation of paper to gold! I do believe what you say is true! All the more reason to own some precious yellow to fend off the REAL barbarians of paper!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:35 - ID#20135)
Date: Mon Apr 06 1998 11:01
jman ( Taking delivery on Comex? ) ID#251268:
maybe I'm not thinking right but that scenario of buying
all the gold at comex is full of holes,of all the contracts
only april is bound to make delivery ( less than 900 contracts )
and if someone tried to buy alarge volume they would have to find
sellers which in this thin if a market ( GCJ8 ) Idoubt you would find
sellers?anyway it doesn't make sence to me.GO GOLD!!!

jman you may be right, but I am just pointing out it is very possible. Looking at the contracts:

COMEX Final Volume/open Interest by Month:
Gold & Silver

-- GOLD --
Finals for April 1
Contract Volume Open Int Change
April 98 431 1259 - 1204
May 98 0 4 + 0
June 98 28002 80328 + 830
Aug. 98 175 7577 + 47
Oct. 98 1010 5154 + 638
Dec. 98 104 16181 + 54
Feb. 99 30 8024 + 0
April 99 300 6587 + 115
June 99 363 11841 + 232
Aug. 99 51 447 - 6
Oct. 99 0 204 + 0
Dec. 99 8 6032 + 3
Feb. 00 0 0 + 0
June 00 0 4463 + 0
Dec. 00 0 5045 + 0
June 01 0 2152 + 0
Dec. 01 0 4867 + 0
June 02 0 1549 + 0
Dec. 02 0 60 + 0
Total 30474 161774 + 709

-- SILVER --
Finals for April 1
Contract Volume Open Int Change
April 98 0 0 - 2
May 98 12607 45059 + 1105
June 98 0 0 + 0
July 98 649 16562 + 187
Sept. 98 22 5224 + 9
Dec. 98 101 10933 + 41
Jan. 99 0 15 + 0
March 99 0 2360 + 0
May 99 1 315 + 0
July 99 3 2341 + 0
Sept. 99 0 12 + 0
Dec. 99 35 2636 + 35
Jan. 00 0 0 + 0
July 00 0 911 + 0
Dec. 00 0 673 + 0
July 01 0 1 + 0
Dec. 01 0 151 + 0
July 02 0 0 + 0
Dec. 02 0 168 + 0
Total 13418 87361 + 1375

We can see that the 1259 contracts in April could take a be bite out of the 1490 contracts needed to remove all eligible gold from comex stocks. Certainly the 80,328 for June would only need 1.9% of the open interest to take delivery to wipe out the comex eligible stocks. My understanding is that all the owner of the contract has to do is let comex know that they are gooing to take delivery -- and its comex's job to deliver. The owners of these contracts have already paid their money and they can either sell their contracts, roll them over, OR TAKE DELIVERY.

It looks easy to me. I appreciate you concern, if I am missing something I certainly want someone to tell me. BUT it looks like COMEX is a very leverage paper gold game to me.

-- GOLD --
Finals for April 1
Contract Volume Open Int Change
April 98 431 1259 - 1204
May 98 0 4 + 0
June 98 28002 80328 + 830

It does look like today has turned into a rather strong battle ground this morning. There was a VERY POSITIVE post early this morning on Platinum and Palladium ( about Russia's problems ) . Gold was going great guns.

Then Merrill put out the RUMOR, attached silver and apparently the pm conplex as a whole. LOOK at the fundentals. Not the words of the shorts.



(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:37 - ID#401237)

PGU is still traded on the Canadian exchange - symbol PSGQF.
Hold on to it, they filed for reorganization not Bankruptcy.

Closed @ 0.43 Friday now up to 0.55 +/_ ?
Will bounce a round a lot - tightly traded.

That also means that it could move up fast?


(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:47 - ID#251268)
Thanks A,Goose,
I wasn't thinking right ,it just seems like some fund or
big fat cat would jump all over it ( they should and might )
h'm something to smile about,platinum and palladium,seems like
japenede and russians doing a stand off,my money is on the russians.
thanks again for oiling up my groggy brain with something to think about.GO GOLD!!!!!!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:50 - ID#373288)
Thanks. Hmmmmmmmm, still thinking and working on this in my mind. Some things just don't register. I don't know about you, but I realize there are certain things that are right in front of my face, but the harder I look the less visible they become. This for me is one of those things.

Once again, thanks for laying down your thoughts in an easy to read manner, still working on getting it through my thick skull.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:55 - ID#258427)
FWIW to those who know that I am a SSC bigot...
I want you toknow that I "bailed" at the open this morning ... and for once got a good execution at 1 7/16 ( the top so far ) ... and I thought I would try a little DROOY, huh Vronsky ... so now it's Go Gold..go Drooy and go Vronsky...

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:56 - ID#7568)

As has been said many times here at Kitco, the silver market is one of the most manipulated markets around. In the short run, it is nothing more than a poker game, where the participants try and make a buck by discerning the other hands at the table.

Today's selloff probably contained a fair amount of gold / silver ratio covering. Because the silver market is much thinner than the gold market this trade would have more of an impact on silver than gold.

In the short term game mode, the key feature is still the May options expiration which comes up at the end of this week. Open interest in the May 650 strike is between 3800 - 3900 contracts or near 19 million ounces. The rumors which reach my ears say that a fair chunk of these options are held by Phibro, a.k.a. the House of Buffett. A large number of these options were bought in the 10 cent range leading to a break even price of 6.60 on the May. In addition there are another 12 million or so ounces up at the 675 strike which are by no means out of play. I would be very hesitant to make bets against the house which is clearly the largest player in the game.

There seems to be a new feature developing in the gold market and that is a distinct lack of producer selling into higher prices. As prices have gone over A$475 there has not been any selling of note coming from down under. The larger North American co's have also been very quiet.

One theory that I have heard which makes a bit of sense is as follows. When the price of gold was well below $300 and 'destined' for $250 or less, every small rally brought selling from the high cost mines. By and large these sales were forced so that cash could be raised to continue operations. The larger and more financially sound ( read 'well hedged' ) mines were actually net buyers rather than sellers at the bottom. As the price of gold has begun to recover, the higher cost mines are already sold out and can not bring ammo to bear. The lower cost and better hedged mines are begining to see some interest in their companies through increases in their stock prices. There has been a lot of investor feedback decrying forward sales. The stock investors are basically saying we do not want you to speculate on the price of gold. Instead we would like you to simply dig it out of the ground and sell it. The investors are investing so that they can get exposure to possible gold price rallies and do not want to find out after the fact that their bets were not as they assumed.

The gold companies are apparently listening of late, because there has been very little producer selling in the face of this rally. Should the price continue higher it may even be that the hedgers become net buyers as they try to lock in profits on their hedge books.

Up until now the fundamental pillar of the bear case in gold has been the expected dishoarding of central bank stockpiles. Andy Smith has hammered home the point that after EMU, European CB's would be disgorging their 'excess' reserves and that this act would put a cieling on gold prices for a decade to come. Now that various members of the EMU community have come out in favor of a more significant role for gold as a monetary asset the bear case is suddenly shifting to expected forward sales by producers. Given the current hedge positions of the producers, there is no chance that they will be responsible for capping gold rallies for years to come. It is in fact more likely that they will reduce their hedge books rather than increase them.

The use of call option sales by marginal mines to create short term cash flow, may also contribute to a more rapid rise in price than might otherwise occur. Owners of call options experience growing exposure to price changes in the underlying as the underlying moves higher. In a very real sense owners of call options have adopted the F* mantra with a small twist.


We don't care, we're buying more ( as the price goes higher ) .

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:58 - ID#340459)
@high Rise, Thanks my friend for your advice on pgu

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:58 - ID#238295)
Looks like we hit a short-term peak this morning. Gold still up two bucks but the other PMs downs sharply. Au will have a tough time getting over $320 and I suspect several failures will come before the real breakthrough.

Best to buy the dips; chasing rallies still very dangerous.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:58 - ID#22956)
morning call
Japanese propping the market ( ? ) long can that be sustained? And this EMU thing will fizzle too ( ? ) . How will this bode for gold? I wonder......and Warren is at it again. Why sell silver? D.A.?

already we are due for a correction w/ regards to gold. will be a choppy road to hoe, no?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 11:59 - ID#373288)
SDRer - a tidbit and one more reason to look at RYG
China property market seen propelling '98 growth
Copyright  1998
Copyright  1998 Reuters News Service

BEIJING ( April 6, 1998 01:49 a.m. EDT ) - China expects to derive about one-tenth of its targeted economic growth of 8.0 percent for 1998 from the residential housing market, the China Daily said on Monday, quoting figures from the Ministry of Construction.

Reforms that replace China's socialist housing system with a commercial housing market, announced last month by new Premier Zhu Rongji, would stir demand for commercial residences, the newspaper quoted Gu Yunchang of the ministry's policy and research center as saying.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 12:07 - ID#324266)
JSE All Gold Index up 9.97% to 971.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 12:12 - ID#431263)
WHAT BETTER WAY TO TOP OUT THE BIGGEST BULL MARKET OF ALL TIME ( EX-JAPAN ) THAN WITH THE BIGGEST CORPORATE MERGER IN US HISTORY! HEUTE IST DER TAG! But as OLD GOLD ( GEORGE COLE ) correctly warns, there will be some more backing and dilling before gold can surge through 320!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 12:18 - ID#333127)
Can anybody set me straight, I have a bad feeling with plat. and pall.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 12:48 - ID#373403)
Herr Cheesehead
From the land down under ( Wisconsin ) , thanks.

As a goldsmith, I can only imagine what wedding bands will be like. Six dwt 14K will cost:
$30,000/20dwt = $1500dwt X .5833 = $874.95dwt14k X 6dwt = $5,249.7

Plus labor! Hahaha, no one will ever complain about my labor charges again! Every crumb of bench filings will be $1.

Diamonds are not forever, they can be made in a laboratory. Gold is forever, it is Biblical!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 12:55 - ID#289357)
COMEX elligible stocks - a perspective

Lest anyone thinks that there is not potential in the gold market, compare todays manic activity ( so far ) in Citicorp ( CCI ) :

7+ Million shares traded between $162 and $171 for a money flow of about $1.17 BILLION !



( ;^ ) )

(Mon Apr 06 1998 13:00 - ID#431263)

(Mon Apr 06 1998 13:11 - ID#57232)
Off in Smokeys for nearly nine days: ANOTHER on gold, and Japan
All: Nice to see my gold stock investments rise when not able to access net. Usually what happens ( Peter principle ) is that everything goes to pot when I can't do anything about it.

ANOTHER: Did ANOTHER make 'another' $10,000 plus gold prediction, and the Kitcoites are in turmoil? Has everyone forgotten that time for ANOTHER is very different from time for a Kitcoite? Yes, we will have $10,000 gold, but it will not be this year, or the next. I will be happy with $350-400 gold by Dec 98. We should also all be prepared for another attempt by the shorts to go below $300. They will not give up easily.

Japan: Did some reading while on Vacation. The Economist article by an invited Japanese ( around Mar 26, 1998 ) was very good: The basic problem is that the Japanese bureaucracy is still in control, not Hashimoto. My opinion is that the gloomy comments by the Sony president, R. Dornbusch, and the Moody's downgrade is to panic Japan into action, as nothing else will get their bureaucracy moving. The Economist article stated very clearly that the problem with the Japanese bureaucratic system is that major changes are not possible until they think they are at the 'brink'. Apparently more of the Japanese postal savings must be dumped down the Japanese debt black hole before substantive action is taken. It still amazes me how their economic system seems to defy gravity virtually forever.

Several scenarios are likely, from mildly optimistic to severely pessimistic, depending on whether the Japanese bureaucrats finally realize how much trouble they are in.

One item we must consider is the following: Will the average Japanese investor want to invest in Japan or in the USA? Will they follow the guidelines offered by the bureacrats and invest in a country where bank runs are apparently occuring, or 'flee to safety' into the US markets?

That is the wild card in all of this. And -- if there are large scale bank runs in Japan as we are told, why is there no news of this?

My guess is that Japan will muddle through, until their bureaucracy finally realizes that fundamental changes are needed.

When our time eventually comes in the USA, we will not be so fortunate to have a bureaucracy/savings cushion that permits a nearly twenty year procrastination.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 13:28 - ID#340302)
@A.GOOSE, once again, thanks for your invaluable contribution... the increasing strength in the gold market.

Your info pertaining to severely depleted COMEX gold stocks is now
being disseminated widely through the global financial markets.

One person CAN make a difference.

Thanks again.


(Mon Apr 06 1998 13:29 - ID#258129)
@A.Goose - You asked for salt price
Checked in supermarket today - 1 kg pack cost NLG 0.89, US$ today is NLG 2.073

(Mon Apr 06 1998 13:46 - ID#208393)
London / New York
What do the traders in London know that the boys in New York don't? Or vice versa?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 13:47 - ID#224149)
Sheepsville --Revisited
RJ It is very difficult to be a professional Trader and post at Kitco ---It seems everybody here ---See only one direction ---While others talk in riddles Have a nice Holiday

PH in LA
(Mon Apr 06 1998 13:52 - ID#225408)
JTF's Japanese bank runs, ANOTHER's timeline.

Your voice has been missed. Welcome back. Your comment on the Japenese bank runs seems to come from the RD article. Do you realize that it dates from February 98? It seems to me that there were a couple of bank runs reported at that time, downplayed, of course, in the mainstream media. One in Hong Kong, also. The implication has been that they have ceased since they were small, insignificant banks anyway. This theme is an interesting one to me and would share a comment with you off-site if you send me your e-mail. I am at:

My impression is that ANOTHER has most recently said that the uncoupling of the dollar to oil will occur in the next few years irrespective of the launching of the euro.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 13:53 - ID#348127)

Did anyone else feel as thgh they were having a Y2K preminision this morning. No harm done but you realize how useful kitco is when you can't get in.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 13:55 - ID#340302)
@ZEKE...some news about BATTLE MOUNTAIN GOLD (and it's good!)

It looks like old Mr. Elers might be on his way out...leaving the renowned Mr. Bayer ( mastermind of the HEMLO takeover ) in complete control.

Look for Mr. Bayer to put BMG up for sale immediately or merge it into another stronger gold company. He is an empire builder.

Stock volume is unusually high for this early in the day.

Hanover Gold names Karl Elers as chairman.

COEUR D'ALENE, Idaho, April 6 ( Reuters ) - Hanover Gold Company Inc. Friday appointed Karl Elers as chairman.

Elers, who joined the board as an outside director in the last quarter of 1997, replaces Jim Fish who remains as president and chief executive.

Elers is also chairman of Battle Mountain Gold Co. ( Nyse:BMG ) and was chief executive of that company until March 1997 when he retired from that post.

Before joining Battle Mountain in 1987, Elers had extensive mining experience in a number of companies since 1962.

Quote for referenced ticker symbols: HVGO, BMG
 1998, Reuters

(Mon Apr 06 1998 14:00 - ID#287277)
Tolerant1-- re: RYG Thanks for the "pointer", it does indeed look very
promising! Tolerant1, do you happen to know--or know were I can find out--what a "grain" of gold is? This "measure" ( ??? ) is mentioned in documents from the thirties, and frankly I haven't a clue...
a grain the size of sand? wheat? what? Is "grain" synonymous with "gram"? Many thanks...for all the valuable "grains"/kernals of knowledge/wisdom...{:- )

JTF@back.from.spring.break Welcome home!

AGoose@Watching.Comex.Cupboard We all thank you for your diligence!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 14:00 - ID#432157)
EMU -Gold - Rumor -25% -----Comments

(Mon Apr 06 1998 14:03 - ID#269409)
Gold Shares
Monday April 6, 9:44 am Eastern Time

RESEARCH ALERT - Morgan Stanley ups gold shares

NEW YORK, April 6 ( Reuters ) - Morgan Stanley on Monday said it raised its rating on shares of golds stocks from neutral to

-- No further information was immediately available.

-- Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX - news ) up 11/16 to 23-3/16.

-- Prime Resources Group Inc. ( PRU - news ) , up 1/2 to 8-1/2.

-- Normandy Mining Ltd. NDY.AX up 0.102 in Australian dollars to 1.760.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 14:05 - ID#288369)
@This must be the place!....
To learn about the greatest investment of this coming decade! The Precious Metals. We Kitcoites are being squeezed out by an onslaught of the curious....couldn't log on this morning at all. Well, I guess that's the price to pay for success. And as Always...Attention Kitco Shoppers!...GO GOLDBUGS!

PH in LA....I trust the concert went well last night...Play ON!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 14:06 - ID#31868)
SDR_ER - JTF-hope you had a great time!
My advice is to write to and ask Doug. He is one of the most knowledgeable people I know as well as an indvidual that studies the history of such.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 14:06 - ID#251268)
Longs are in for the LONG haul
not much profit taking today,after the last 15 months of getting
pounded not many longs are content to exit with small profits,
day by day more will jump on the long side,I'd guess some
really good traders shorted at the peak in London on Globex
and I'd expect more of the same tonight,but am optomistic
about a run up to 340 before any major resistance,even if its 10 dollars a week towards that goal if it gets there and breaks could be
great. GO GOLD!!!!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 14:11 - ID#401460)
Kitco ??????

Looks like they stopped trading Gold again?

Has anyone found another site for spot Gold Price?

Schwab has been down today also - interesting.


(Mon Apr 06 1998 14:15 - ID#285121)
Irrational Exuberance + 3000 = Insanely Extatic
Geoffs / A test of 290 again in my opinion unless a CB makes a big deal out of selling gold SHhhhhhh, to another CB that don't tell about the buy. You know, same old trick. Probably at least one more this month or next. I have much confidence in the manupilation ability by CB's until the market tanks.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 14:16 - ID#289357)
SDRer @ grain

1 Troy ounce = 480 grains

(Mon Apr 06 1998 14:22 - ID#288369)
@LGB and JTF....Two legendary Kitco-posters...par excellence.
LGB...say something about these beautiful St. Gaudens....ohmy! I'm in love with an inanimate ( some think ) object. Come to me my little precious Saintie...ohmy!


(Mon Apr 06 1998 14:28 - ID#36156)
Midday NY precious metals mostly off led by silver

NEW YORK, April 6 ( Reuters ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious
metals futures were mostly lower Monday, led by silver, which
sustained heavy losses reacting to a report that Warren Buffett
liquidated a third of his 129.7 million ounce long position.

The Financial Times first reported on Merrill Lynch's
two-week old report Monday, sending funds and dealers pummeling
the New York market with fresh sell orders that triggered stops
on the way down.

At 1158 EDT, COMEX May silver was $6.355 an ounce, down
22.0 cents from Friday's close, trading between $6.260 and
$6.63 an ounce.

In the bullion market, spot silver was quoted $6.38/41 an
ounce, compared to the early London fix at $6.635 an ounce, and
Friday's New York close at $6.60/63 an ounce.

"There was some panic selling that stemmed from the
report," said Carlos Peres-Santalla, a trader with Hudson River
Futures. "Apparently a lot of people believed the story.
Personally, I'm a little skeptical and $6.35 looks like a good
buy to me."

The selling appeared to bleed over into the platinum group
metals market, both of which were off sharply in absence of any
fundamental news.

"We saw some heavy fund liquidation in both platinum and
palladium," said one floor trader. "The decline in silver may
have put pressure on the platinum and palladium markets."

Japanese palladium consumers are still waiting for Russia
to approve export licenses to pave the way for sales to Japan.

"There wasn't any news regarding exports out of Russia,"
added James Steel, commodity analyst with Refco Inc. "The
selling seems to be in sympathy with silver."

NYMEX July platinum was $408.00 an ounce, down $3.70 an
ounce, while June palladium was down the limit of $6.00 to
$259.00 an ounce.

Gold came off the highs as the silver market plunged, but
was still higher on the day, gaining support from belief that
gold will have a role in European Central Bank reserves.

COMEX June gold was up $1.30 an ounce at $311.60 an ounce,
trading between $309.70 and $317.00 an ounce.

The selling came from one of the New York investment banks,
traders said.

Producers have, so far, exercised restraint withholding
from forward hedge selling until the price hits $320 an ounce,
traders said.

( ( Derek J. Caney, New York Commodity Desk, 212-859-1640 ) )

(Mon Apr 06 1998 14:32 - ID#342282)
A> Goose re Comex
Got a call from Comex. No historical on eligible. It's all on total

(Mon Apr 06 1998 14:34 - ID#342282)
A> Goose re Comex
Got a call from Comex. No historical on eligible. It's all on total

(Mon Apr 06 1998 14:35 - ID#36156)
I disavow any copyrights on my 14:28

Strad Master
(Mon Apr 06 1998 15:14 - ID#250297)
White rabbts, Goldbugs, and Volsts
ALL: The world of classcal musc s full of volst jokes. Here's one of my favortes: You are walkng n the forest and are lost. You come to a fork n the road and don't know whch way to go. Standng there are a good volst, a bad volst, and a 6 foot tall whte rabbt. Whch one do you ask for drectons? ANSWER: The bad volst because the other two are fgments of your magination. All ths s preamble to mformng you all that PH n LA s really just a fgment of our collectve Ktco maginaton!!! He cannot exst because he s a wonderful volst! Heard hm perform last nght n a tremendous concert blled as the "The Magc Of The Vola" and even got pressed nto service turning pages for the Brahms G Minor Piano Quartet. Before that he performed a fascnatng and tough ( previoulsy unknown ) vola sonata by Anton Rubensten. Extremely well played. Actually, I knew he was really magnary when we frst met about 20 years ago to play Schubert's "Trout" quntet together. Now, t turns out that he s a Kitcoite, Goldbug, and Super-Sleuth wth regard to mysterous posters here, n addition to being a mere fgment of the maginaton. Charmng wife and two sweet kds, too. And, he lves just 10 mnutes away from me. Small world, eh? Wonder how many other PM bugs are also musscans? Greenspan s - he plays Sax. Anyhow... Bravo PH in LA - wherever you are...

(Mon Apr 06 1998 15:14 - ID#238295)
LGB: Thanks for the Morgan Stanley gold stock update!

My observation has been that when POG makes a peak after a sharp upward spike, prices usually drift down for a few days. Wouldn't surprisw me to see June gold down to $306 or so before we start up again.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 15:15 - ID#238295)
LGB: Thanks for the Morgan Stanley gold stock update!

My observation has been that when POG makes a peak after a sharp upward spike, prices usually drift down for a few days. Wouldn't surprisw me to see June gold down to $306 or so before we start up again.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 15:19 - ID#285121)
Timing of the surges ? ? ?
Both on Friday and today the surge in gold took place around 3:00 am. NY time. Can someone determine if this will indicate who is doing the buying. Evidently the U.S. did the selling.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 15:41 - ID#288140)
Lurking larvae:

You havent metamorphosed into a goldbug.
You will change but what will you change into?
If you buy overpriced Wall Street stocks,
what is the best that can happen; what is the worst?
If you buy ***GOLD***
what is the worst that can happen, what is the best?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 15:44 - ID#340302)
@ZEKE...the buzz is good.
...Elers paving his way for his imminent departure??

NORANDA has a nice stake in think they might want more?

Now that would be some marriage!


(Mon Apr 06 1998 15:53 - ID#431263)
Farrell believes that the US markets will correct in the second half of the year because of a renewed sell-off in Asia as the reflex rally of the last 3 months in Asia has run its course and now the real economic problems of Asia are about to bite and send Asian markets back into the toilet taking US stocks with 'em! Here's a man who knows what he's talking about and those who are wise will heed his warning! Nasdaq down 24 while CCI and Travelers prop up the DOW! When, Yahoo, INTC, MSFT and Dell are all down while gold stocks are all up we know the market is in trouble! DEEEEEEEEP TROUBLE, eh VR! : )

(Mon Apr 06 1998 15:57 - ID#431263)
Farrell believes that the US markets will correct in the second half of the year because of a renewed sell-off in Asia as the reflex rally of the last 3 months in Asia has run its course and now the real economic problems of Asia are about to bite and send Asian markets back into the toilet taking US stocks with 'em! Here's a man who knows what he's talking about and those who are wise will heed his warning! Nasdaq down 25 while CCI and Travelers prop up the DOW! When, Yahoo, INTC, MSFT and Dell are all down while gold stocks are all up we know the market is in trouble! DEEEEEEEEP TROUBLE, eh VR? Looks like a Pyrrhic victory to me? Let's get this Dow Bull special out'a the way so we can get on with the preparation for the Dow Bear special! My BEAR-X has suffered long enough already!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 15:58 - ID#244360)
I just recieved a copy of Moneyworld in the mail. I have no idea why I received it other than that financial flyers and paraphrenalia are currently being fired off at a rate that rivals even the steady staccato of denials from White House.
The front cover is graced with:
"Mega-Volume Shocks Gold Traders."

Inside, an article by Michael J. Kossares outlines the
story of ANOTHER, introducing him with this:

"Beginning in October, 1997 a series of remarkable postings
appeared on a well-known internet investment chat room under the pseudonym ANOTHER......Rumors persist that ANOTHER is the internet identity fot a high ranking member of the Saudi Royal family...."

He elucidates the ANOTHER "essense" ( or nonsense ) :

"His sometimes deeply philosophical, almost mystical thinking on the markets appears in a seemingly incongruous stream over many months on the internet..."

Cenntenial Precious Metals is selling bound copies of
ANOTHER's postings with commentary by Kosares under the title, "In the Footsteps of Giants: Has the Gold Market Been Cornered?" Price? Pre-publication edition ( 500, first come, first serve ) $25. Thereafter, $35 The context in which the offer appears is a full page, editorial like column. Very interesting.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 16:05 - ID#255284)
Grains and Gold, the missing ink
Date: Fri Dec 12 1997 00:31
aurator ( .....Food for thought..... Food for thought? ....Food for thought...

Metal based currency, yup, however, i would like to add another idea and
throw it into the ring. Years ago I read a polemic in the Wellington
library about wheat and gold. Unfortunately, I am told that most books on
gold are out right now ( another unorthodox index for SDR_er ) , so I
shall have to rely on far from perfect memory.

Some days ago I posted a challenge to spell the relationship between wheat
and gold, I am not sure if the lack of response was because noone reads
me ( and i wouldn't read me- a la Groucho ) or because nooone knew..
any way, for the first time on kitcom ( does that mean the lefties have
taken over kitco? ) the relationship bewteen gold and wheat;
there are 480 grains in a troy oz
480 grains of wheat.
why 480? That is rather obscure, but there are 24 grains in a
pennyweight, and 20 pennyweight in a troy ounce
It was discovered ( ?? ) that and measurement of 480 grains of wheat had
the same weight, this is a manifestation of the law of large numbers, the
variance is small enough to be ignored. That weight became the Troy
And so on to the monograph, the author ( was written in 1930's I recall )
advocated the adoption of a dual gold/wheat standard. The idea was
similar to the separation of capital and interest. A paper currency could be
issued by a nation that was backed both by gold and the food production
of that country. ( This production was measured by the staple, wheat, rice,
of that country. ( This production was measured by the staple, wheat, rice,
maize, barley, whatever ) This, said the author was a measure that would
allow the CB to fairly back the domestic currency, this fairness ( ie
strength of both capital and income- keeping the citizens fed ) would
translate into the readiness or reluctance of other countries to accept the
first currency in trade exchanges. The comfort to the accepting country is
that the currency can always be exchanged into gold/food, according to
criteria and details long since forgot

(Mon Apr 06 1998 16:09 - ID#431263)
This on a day when we celebrate DOW 9000 for the first time! Seems like a Pyrrhic victory at best! If this ain't a classic divergence at a market top I'll eat my golden cheesehead! How anticlimatic can you get? Not nearly as much fun as the DOW 8000 bash!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 16:10 - ID#57232)
Kitco slow as molasses! K Starr, Win 95 and the 'War on Gold'
All: Thanks for the feedback!

Here's something from John Crudele -- He thinks Kenneth Starr is well on his way to preparing a strong case for impeachment of BC. It is hard for me to know whether the tide is moving for or against BC in the XXXXgate cases. As Oldman says, BC's fortunes and the markets fortunes are linked -- and the US markets are not showing much weakness.

SDRer: A little feedback on Windows 95. I am still not operational on many software programs, such as my investment software. Not as easy to program as the old DOS 6.22. Unfortunatly W 95 still a better choice than Windows NT, since NT does not support alot of software. But -- I now know that W 95 can do what I want -- eventually.

By the way -- do not - I repeat - do not - use anything except 16 bit FAT tables with Win 95. There is a bug of some kind with 32 bit FATs in Win 95, according to one of my more computer literate friends. And -- 32 bit FATS are not backward compatible.

Have you read Sutton's book called 'The War on Gold', published about 1975? Many interesting points about the last time the CB's declared war on gold, and lost. The two-tier public and private gold pricing scheme and the Gold Pool from the 60's and 70's is described in detail. Also, Sutton describes the SDR as a scheme for creating 'paper gold', as the SDR was initially created as being valued in so many grams of gold. Didn't last long before it was used to create 'instant money'.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 16:17 - ID#227108)
aurator (Grains and Gold, the missing ink)
Concerning Grains and Gold: This weekend I was rereading the chapter on Gold in Murphy's book on Intermarket analysis and he discussed his observation that Soybeans is more helpful than Silver when doing gold intermarket analysis.

Good luck,


(Mon Apr 06 1998 16:17 - ID#227108)
aurator (Grains and Gold, the missing ink)
Concerning Grains and Gold: This weekend I was rereading the chapter on Gold in Murphy's book on Intermarket analysis and he discussed his observation that Soybeans is more helpful than Silver when doing intermarket analysis.

Good luck,


(Mon Apr 06 1998 16:18 - ID#263184)
ALL... back from another trip out of town and PMs
break out to new high for the rally. Seems like I ought to take more vacations. Anyone want to contribute to my vacation fund? Seriously, looking like some of the leaders are running into congestion areas.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 16:22 - ID#234311)
StradMaster, we must protest.
The shock value of your 15:14 in mentioning the musucal proclivities of Greenspan and PH in LA, we do not want to read about sax and violist on this discussion group.

Couldn't resist a setup that good. If you must throw things at me, make them Sovereigns...

(Mon Apr 06 1998 16:23 - ID#20135)
Date: Mon Apr 06 1998 12:55
Silverbaron ( COMEX elligible stocks - a perspective ) ID#289357:

Right ON!!! Clear and concise and to the point.

Date: Mon Apr 06 1998 11:47
jman ( Thanks A,Goose, ) ID#251268:

Your Welcome jman. It is a team effort and TEAM KITCO is going to be on TOP!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 16:25 - ID#267344)
Clinton bans foriegn assault rifles.
As of today, your AK47 is illegal by executive order. Bill, do I sense a little paranoia? - c

(Mon Apr 06 1998 16:28 - ID#20135)
Date: Mon Apr 06 1998 13:28
farfel ( @A.GOOSE, once again, thanks for your invaluable contribution... ) ID#340302: the increasing strength in the gold market.

Farfel thanks for your kind words. I am one among many such as yourself, SDRer, JTF, mozel ... . BUT I do appreciate the kind thoughts.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 16:37 - ID#431263)
Deflationary forces will hit US during 2nd and 3rd quarter.


(Mon Apr 06 1998 16:38 - ID#340302)
...results again were somewhat encouraging. Volumes increased somewhat from Friday, yet still remain relatively modest...still NO exuberance and still very little small investor participation.

Most gold stocks retrenched from their highs at the end of the day. However, overall retrenchment seemed fairly insignificant given how far some of these stocks have come since the beginning of the year. The fact that there was retrenchment is good as it indicates further base building and an absence of euphoria. Again, contrast this sober aspect of the gold market to the virtual verticality in the equities markets.

The results augur well for a continuation of the creation of a solid foundation for a gold bull.

Certainly, there should be several fundamental revelations over the next few weeks that should enable the gold market to maintain a decent level of strength...and who knows, maybe even a touch of exuberance???


(Mon Apr 06 1998 16:42 - ID#266105)
@remember the bismarck!

Date: Mon Apr 06 1998 08:31
Novice ( South African, North American... ) ID#375108:
Australian, European, Asian, who the h*** cares. GO gold stocks and wake up,
TED!! Bart, ever think of fumigating K-II?


A jelly good time....

(Mon Apr 06 1998 16:42 - ID#246224)
You said you could take vacation. We'll be looking into this. And believe me it will not happen again! Welcome back ;- )

(Mon Apr 06 1998 16:48 - ID#431263)
Sure sign of a top! Will put more money in stock fund even if market corrects, cuz market always come back! Make more money in market than 2% interest in bank savings account. Gott im Himmel! Talk about sheep! BAAAAAAAAAAA! Humbug!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 16:48 - ID#246224)
Golden Cheese Head
IMO your posts about the DOW every 5 mintues ( hyperbole ) is not helping here. When it crashes please let us know, OK? Until then please restrain the impulses that so easily persuade you to continue screaming about the DOW getting trashed. It will be when it will be. As for gold, scream all you want ( if it helps the price rise, that is ) .

Your admirer, Allen ( USA ) .

(Mon Apr 06 1998 16:50 - ID#246224)
IMO your posts about the DOW every 5 mintues ( hyperbole ) is not helping here. When it crashes please let us know, OK? Until then please restrain the impulses that so easily persuade you to continue screaming about the DOW getting trashed. It will be when it will be. As for gold, scream all you want ( if it helps the price rise, that is ) .

Your admirer, Allen ( USA ) .

(Mon Apr 06 1998 16:53 - ID#255217)
Rev. farfel
I would like to solicit your opinion as to the effect on the current price of platinum should the reticent Ruskies elect to make good their dellivery to the Japanese. Big drop? Little drop? No drop? Seems like there oughtta be SOME drop. Question much? Whaddya think?

Bill Buckler
(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:00 - ID#256381)
Gold - Two Intra-Day Breakthroughs
According to CBS Marketwatch, the April spot future Gold contract ( GCJ8 ) opened at $314 and got as high as $314.50 before subsiding to close at $309, up $1 on the day.

This rise to $314 breaks above the 40 week ( 200 day ) MA on my weekly bar chart and the downtrend line on my $US 1 x 3 P&F chart. These are major resistance areas and, as such, are seldom taken out in "one go". What I have got on my P&F chart with the $309 close is a new uptrend line.

Gold is firming up nicely. If it gets above $310 and stays there, all the technical indicators are in place. Then, it will take concerted CB intervention and/or a kamikaze short attack to squelch the price. Such things are never out of the question, as all who have watched Gold know too well.

But genuine bull markets, especially in their early stages, climb a wall of worry. There's no doubt that is exactly what Gold is doing now.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:01 - ID#20135)
Date: Mon Apr 06 1998 14:34
chas ( A. Goose re Comex ) ID#342282:
Got a call from Comex. No historical on eligible. It's all on total

Just amazing. Key data like that and they don't keep it. Comex is looking stranger and stranger. It is a paper game and they just don't want anyone to find out and spill the beans.

SORRY COMEX. It is to late. WE KNOW and we are TELLING EVERYONE!!!



(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:02 - ID#431263)
You RIGHT Allen! WILL BE AWAY FOR A TIME--YES? Must find more money to put into market since market alway come back stronger than before. So sorry to have made you angry! Will refrain from further bullish talk in future. Away to find more liquid to pour on flames of fiery-hot market! CHOU!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:02 - ID#286230)
Munk dumps US malls:

(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:03 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.25 ( we are 1.29 ounces down from the high, 4.22%. The divergence is very encouraging. )

(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:06 - ID#340302)
@ARGENT...Platinum? I do not know much about it.
IMHO My own hunch is that, if the Russians deliver to the Japanese, that could be the end of the great Platinum rocket.

However, what if at the same time, it were announced that Mr. Yeltsin had expired? Fears of instability in Russia?

A positive and a negative...the two should cancel each other out.

However, please understand that this opinion about platinum is coming from someone who has paid relatively little attention to that fairly esoteric market. My attentions have focused on gold and silver ( particularly over the last five years ) .


(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:07 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio .288

(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:08 - ID#316238)
Can anyone hypothesize as to why there has been no definitive response so far to the Merrill Lynch rumor by a Berkshire Hathaway rep, or Buffet himself? Without a disclaimer, the market may remain in a downward mode. Any views in this regard?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:11 - ID#255217)
I beg to differ with Mr. Bug; I appreciate occasional divergances, especially those that enlighten us as to the proclivities of certain contributers to this forum or those who might have an inordinate influence on the beliefs or opinions of our posters. It perhaps gives us greater insight into those individuals' thonking and expands our understanding of their motivations. Then again, it may not. All IMHO, of coarse.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:12 - ID#176200)
You can still own an AK47 but cant import one anymore. This is just
another step closer to the banning of guns alltogether. They will pry
mine from my cold dead fingers with a spent magazine!! :- )

Standard disclaimer:
Not speaking for my employer!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:13 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 48.25

(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:13 - ID#375108)
Forgot South American golds. May they ALL go up. Among the 10 most actives today on the TSE ( Toronto ) , and all up 2% or more, were ABX, K, PDG, TVX, and GRE ( Greenstone ) , with GRE up nearly 8%.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:36 - ID#359316)
'"There is a pure Matter" (saith another)-'
'"which is the Matter of Gold, containing in itself the Heat that giveth Increase." ( Fire of Generation. ) This is lock'd under thick Folds in common Gold; nor is it to be extracted, but by a strong and tedious Decoction, which is a Work liable to many Errors, and hath always occasioned those that wrought in it to complain of the length and trouble of it. But in the other Work, the Body is soon dissolved, by a sweet and kindly Bath, or moist Fire.
As the former Path requires much Pain and Patience to effect the Work, so this requires great Skill and Application to find it out, it being deeply concealed. The Masters of these Secrets do also affirm, that these Works ( which are all one in the Beginning ) may be conjoin'd, and made their grand Medicine. And I have been informed, that the way of making them one is but slenderly hid. For should they but change some Words ( which they affect to use in order to conceal it ) of one Syllable, and sometimes of two, for others of three, and sometimes of four or more, it would not be difficult for a Tyro, to conceive it. And the Reason given for
this slender Covering is, that if any one should discern it and yet be ignorant of the means of both it would be of little avail; and that if he knew the means he could not long remain ignorant of the Practice. So that the Knowledge of the Means seems absolutely necessary in the first place.'

It does take great "Skill and Application" to unravel the games of the markets in which we take an interest. The "Masters of the Secrets" desire to keep them close, for if all were to know the "Knowledge of the Means", the great power of confidence that maintains the value of a "promise to pay" over its "cost of production" might see rivalry in gold.

And, given the rise in the price of gold recently, one may imagine that those indulging in "slender covering" would utter some choice "Words of One Syllable"!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:41 - ID#373403)
DOW 9000
Gold stocks help according to CNBC! Does this kill them? No, like many Kitco posters they want others to perceive them as right and to have others seek out their council. If this means giving up the initial profits of a new bull by waiting until the proof is already appearent then so be it. Now they will tell everyone cautiously that they were sure about gold bottoming before everyone else and will hedge positive statements more and more.

DOW is starting to climb a wall of worry at the end of its bull. DOW slowing it's pace will be self-fulfilling to the DOW bear. As analysts begin to hedge their bull advise, people will take profits and park it in accounts where they can see it and it will not be growing much. Now they will SPEND some of it. So what? INFLATION. The unmeasured equity inflation will translate to real price inflation which will fuel wage inflation down the road. Inflation news will begin to permeate the landscape and cause the real DOW crisis.


(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:46 - ID#183109)
Bravo to all my firearm friends!! And a question.
We'll have to have our Gold $500 Kitco party in a gun-friendly state and see who can hit a Krugerrand at 200 meters : )
MSFT Microsoft. P/E of 62 Hummmm....can you say Lawn Dart? Do I really need to spend money on Office 98, Office 99, OfficeY2K?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:47 - ID#14431)
S&P500/Gold Ratio

Donald: FWIW, the S&P500/Gold ratio is off its high, too, by 3.66% ( from 3.769 on March 20th, to 3.631 today ) . The ratio ended 1997 at 3.402. so the ratio has to drop by about 6.31% more to retrace to its year-end level.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:50 - ID#284246)

In response to your post re WB selling silver, I think that the reason that you haven't heard much response is that Kitcoites haven't stopped laughing yet!

I've heard this type of stuff before, albeit from the same source. It just makes me chuckle.

I think that Mr R Monger who put this stuff out got confused with the rumour that Warren BEATTY has sold a third of his silverware!!!.

Seriously, though, silver is notoriously choppy and I wouldn't be surprised if we get a modest retracement to 615 - 620 - with or without the help of Monger from the Mill.

Personally I'll be increasing my holding in the next day or so.



(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:50 - ID#255217)
Rev. F*
Thanks for your opinion. My feelings are much the same as yours. Over the years I have never taken Pt seriously enough to load up on it, although I have flirted with the idea of putting away a small amount, just in case.

Now, however, I am wondering if that wasn't a mistake. Platinum reminds me of an insistent suitor whos just won't go away. It's always there, beckoning... . One thing I don't like about it is its color. It looks like stainless steel to me. If it were purple or green, I might like it a little better.
Of coarse, you can say the same thing about silver...almost. But silver doesn"t cost $411/oz. One thing for sure, the Japanese like it. I don't know how much of an endorsement that is , though. They also like raw fish.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:52 - ID#25256)
@Dr. farfel
Thanks for the sizzling news! As I have previously related, I'm the proud mother of a rather preponderant load of BMG. Knowledge of a sell point will be difficult to assess for this big boy. This news, though wonderful enough, doesn't help the decision process. Charts say 12 might be a good point-to-ponder.

Additionally, I am very long HL which seems to be holding firm. Any news on either of these will be most welcome.

As to the ak47 stuff, I say he should buy up all the silver soz nobody can cast silver b-o-o-olets--his only weakness. G-O-O-O Shiney Stuff!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:52 - ID#317193)
Suggestion for posts during market hours
Keep them short and sweet. Tom

(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:52 - ID#344308)

this chart sure does not indicate any-thing but......

UP....and volatility city.....

1 more coming....

(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:54 - ID#183109)
READABLE? The JSE looking good :)
--- ----- ------ --- ----------
| ----- -- - --- ---- ---- - - -- --- |
| CROWN 125 130 130 148 130 5+ 0,0 528800V |
| DBN DP 1430 1470 1470 1490 1295 210+ 54,1- 417330V |
| DBNDPBOPT 155 220 200 210 180 60+ 0,0 13667V |
| DBNDP OPT 600 750 575 575 575 75+ 53,8- 24800V |
| HARMONY 15,9 2285 2310 2300 2450 2050 360+ 31,8- 935811V |
| HARMONYOP 380 400 300 380 380 80+ 62,0- |
| CAM 138 140 140 145 135 10+ 0,0 845259 |
| CAM OPT 17 20 20 23 15 5+ 0,0 615000V |
| RANGOLD 755 780 780 810 750 70+ 77,6- 304787V | +------------------------------------------------------------------------

(Mon Apr 06 1998 17:55 - ID#344308)

and ANOTHER THOUGHTful perspective......

what do you see grass-hopper?

Bully Beef
(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:01 - ID#259282)
Can anyone tell me what happened to the rally?
I am P%%%ed OFF! Is this the way it will go up? Ten steps forward and nine back. Even so GooD Nuff.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:03 - ID#288140)
Argent & Y2K
Your 17:11 is a joke too right? If not go back and read Mr. Bug's again! Good one Mr Bug.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:03 - ID#255217)
How about Arizona? Do we get to keep the Krd if we hit it? Can we use a scope? How about blackpowder & no scope, 200 yards? ( I can't even see that far. )

(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:04 - ID#288369)
@scarface....bravo! to your 17:50.....
Perhaps, the "real" Warren ( as opposed to the real Buffett=Jimmy ) is also adding to his yourself. And perhaps, a buyer likes to buy at lower prices....Warren says "thanks" to little Andy@M. Lynch.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:05 - ID#31868)
JTF - go here, it will give you much info on w95

Aragorn III
(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:06 - ID#212323)
Trinovant....your 17:36 was...
Excellent. Required reading for my kindred friends, Tolerantl and aurator. Thanks.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:06 - ID#287338)
I find it hard to believes that Buffet is selling any of his silver. He is not the kind of guy to buy it one year and sell it the next. Especially with something like silver. I believe he looks deep into the future and sees an opportunity with silver. Look at his track record. He is a smart man who has made his fortune by buying and holding. Could it be that this is misinformation?

The rumor floating around here at Kitco a few days back was that he was still waiting on delivery of 30 million oz. Maybe he just gave up and said "just give us our money back". Could this have been interpreted as him selling? I don't have a clue. But I doubt that he would just give up on waiting for his delivery anyway if that was the case.

As for Berkshire Hathaway being tight lipped about today's silver news, IMHO if I was them I would not acknowledge it either. If they did sell and they acknowledged it, it would only drive the price down further. If they did not sell any silver this makes for the process of weeding out any more weak longs who are disbeliever's in silvers future and build the base for a strong bull market in silver. Or could it be that they just want to buy some more, so they don't mind if the price drops?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:08 - ID#317193)
Bart Kitner
Thanks fo trying to keep the quotes up. Wait til REAL gold prices show up. The screams will be deafening. Change, ahh yes. Tom

(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:13 - ID#288369)
@and as always,
A slow, painful death to Camdessus.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:14 - ID#344308)

the monkey's sang about it...
those with grain puts are singing it now....

'ohhh i'm a believer.......

the golden-maned bull has ridden into town.....he has the
face of a clown...given him by the sellers of gold...they
attempted to geld the gilded all will see....

this big bull has big b@!!s........easy hep-rat....down boy..

time to step-up to the plate of life...swat a hep-rat or two....
and swing the bat in the greatest game ever played!! the gold market...

cherokee!; ) ...looking-gargle-eyed-at-a-gargoyle------------

(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:23 - ID#258129)
ECB president
According to "Guardian" of today "French lose the Bank". "The presidency of the European Central Bank, the body which will decide the interest rate for countries in the single currency area, looks certain to go to Wim Duisenberg of the Netherlands, the current head of the European Monetary Institute Bank will be tough on inflation." and other news regarding ECB:

(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:26 - ID#287338)
Are we looking for a correction here or will it continue higher?
If they buy gold again tonight and it opens higher in New York tomorrow, it will be a good lesson for those who short it today. Time for the shorts to get burned a couple of times.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:27 - ID#411331)
The merrill Lynch story that W Buffett was attempting to unload over
40 million of his recently purchased silver hoard sounds like misinformation to me.
Last Thursday, I was entertained by a story from a broker in Australia who said that the Royal Australian Mint was having difficulty purchasing sufficient silver for the production of a new silver coin.
They contacted Berkshire-Hathaway and asked if their silver was for lease. Berkshire told them that not only wasn't Buffett silver for lease, but that they were still waiting for the final 30 million oz delivery to arrive from their original 129 million oz purchase. Don't you think it odd that Buffett, who is renown for his long holds, would be willing to unload at these low silver prices before even taking delivery of his original purchase???!!
Both of these stories are unsubstantiated, but which one makes more sense?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:28 - ID#57232)
Buffett and Silver sales?, Gold short status?
RJ,D.A. where are you? My guess -- without inside information from them or others, is that since WB is not a trader, but rather a buyer and holder -- the story of silver sales is probably false.

But -- there is another likely side to this story -- just who bought the silver, if it was sold? Could this be analogous to one CB selling or loaning gold to another CB?

I doubt WB would want to dilute his massive silver holdings at this point, with comex silver stores continuing to dwindle.

It sure is interesting watching the fluctuations in physical silver, while our diligent Comex watchers post the supply numbers.

Anyone know what the status of the gold shorts is? When should we expect the next bearish counterattack? $310? $320? I can't believe they will lie down without a fight.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:34 - ID#257136)
Sharefin: Your post of 01:55 and the earlier one re: cocaine hit me where I reside.
Metaphorically speakin' 'course. I actually reside in Mena and have a small knowledge of whereof you speak re: the b.j.'s sniffer and asssorted other drivel and trivia as well as a miniscule portion of fact. It has all been said in the videos which many here are familiar with.
The post about the base and honorable men-juxtaposed, made me wish I was again in even my 50s which was long before I began to slow down.
It's gonna be a turibul tahm fer us'ns heer in the U.S. of A. unless something untoward occurs to de--rail the locomotive they are putting on the track.
My fear is that it will make Waco and assorted other occurences look like Sunday School picnics.
That is, unless we the people luck out and are able to get the first moves in. Time will tell.
Puttin' in another order for drooy and rangy. Taking a look at Claimstake resources. Waiting for the broker to phone back, so will shut up now!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:36 - ID#317193)
A time for every purpose under heaven-turn,turn
Place your bets and watch in awe over the next few weeks. After Tuesday I must be gone for a while. I will watch gold lie quiet while its thunder roars. Tom

(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:41 - ID#57232)
Lost some of my Warren Buffett post
Please add: Warren Buffett might have loaned or even sold some of his silver to one of his pals who also wish to do the same thing he does -- buy up physical silver. WB might have a more efficient buying oraganization, and hence might be able to get a lower price for silver than others.

Even better if the 'sales' depress the silver price so that more can be bought.

You can bet that whatever happened, that silver in question will not get back into the markets for some time to come..

(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:47 - ID#31868)

(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:47 - ID#340302)
...apparently, the deal to bring Jerry Lewis over to CNBC to host the DOW 9000 Telethon fell apart...I think his asking price was just way too high ( compared to Ron Insana's salary anyway )

So, in lieu of Jerry ( crooning the old tearjerker, YOU'LL NEVER WALK ALONE ) ...

...Citibank and Travelers decided to announce the greatest financial merger in history ( and most likely the greatest financial scam in American history, designed to hide the many loan and operations write-offs incurred from the Asian and Latin American debacles. No doubt it will be an accountants dream to wade into the deep red sea and, through the magic of goodwill and oddball amortizations, transform the red to green. Although describing the event as such a happy merger, neither Reed nor Weil seemed anything other than the picture of mournful, anxious concern...kind of like, "Gee, we sure hope our dimwit shareholders never figure out why we're really doing this!" ) .

YET, despite the epic announcement, the DOW proved to be a limping shadow of its former self. If not for the maniacal upsurge in the financial sector plus the drastic re-direction of monies from the Nasdaq to the DOW, then most likely the DOW would have dropped at least 200 points today.

So, DOW 9000 is here...unfortunately, it took a while longer than was expected so the party cake is a little stale over at CNBC. However, fresh cake is being purchased as the THE DOW 10000 TELETHON launches into full gear.

Donations should be forwarded immediately to:

c/o .2 Percent Cash Margin in Your Mutual Fund


(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:51 - ID#257136)
Dave in Co: Please confirm current email status. Sent you one this a.m. and it was returned.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:56 - ID#20135)
JtF this is a little old, but does it help. I will keep my eye out for more recent data.

CEI Gold: Commitments of Traders

3/27/98 --FWN--As of Mar 17,1998
Non Commercial 7,047 -6,449 58,345 +10,196 16.3
spreading 18,815 +422 18,815 +422 9.4
Commercial 135,033 +21,161 83,753 +389 54.6
Tot lrg trader 160,895 +15,134 160,913 +11,007 80.3
Small traders 39,363 +996 39,345 +5,123 19.7
Total OI 200,258 +16,130

CEI Silver: Commitments of Traders

3/27/98 --FWN--As of Mar 17,1998
Non Commercial 40,039 -9,266 5,057 +620 24.8
spreading 10,770 -2,599 10,770 -2,599 11.8
Commercial 13,549 +5,180 61,442 -4,802 41.2
Tot lrg trader 64,358 -6,685 77,269 -6,781 77.8
Small traders 26,613 +339 13,702 +435 22.2
Total OI 90,971 -6,346

I found this information VERy interesting ( note the total delivery notices so far for April ) :

COMEX Delivery Notices for Today 4/6/98

Merrill Lynch Futures, Inc. 1 Republic N.Y. Securities 1

Aig Clearing Corporation 157 Aig Clearing Corporation 148
Goldman Sachs & Co. 20 Carr Futures Inc. 1
Prudential Securities Inc. 18 Refco, Inc. 2
Lind-Waldock & Company 1 Republic N.Y. Securities 41
Pioneer Futures, Inc. 1 Spear, Leeds & Kellogg 3
Smith Barney Inc. 1 Smith Barney Inc. 3

-- -- -- -- TOTAL DELIVERY NOTICES -- -- --
ISSUED TODAY 225 1 198
SO FAR FOR April 3,858 43 3,943

NOW just how is comex going to cover these gold deliveries??? Looks like fun. Remeber I don't care I am bying more AND TAKING DELIVERY!!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:57 - ID#340459)
@farfel, I have synonymous sentiment. The Dow was up because of merger
Nasdaq is an early indicator for upcoming correction. Motorola is down 2.5 points in after hours trading. I feel that Dow will dive this week.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 18:57 - ID#255151)

Here is a neat site called the BigEye. It has over 1,000 links to various topics, arranged in a random order. Topics include news sources, financial info, music, arts, poetry and lots of early American History. Believe it or not, Kitco is among the links!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:00 - ID#340302)
...GOOD NEWS...Trichet would have been better than Duisenberg...however, Germany's ISSING is a good augurs well for the gold support behind the EURO. In any case, the Germans, French, and Italians will determine the gold composition of Euro reserves...certainly not the Dutch.


(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:04 - ID#266105)
@dry ice, it's a gasgasgas

Some of these stocks skipped liquid from solid froze...
in volume, simply sublimed.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:05 - ID#340302)


(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:07 - ID#258129)
Option contracts and Gold price in May
I made some calculations regarding number of call and put Gold contracts, as published by Router. Here is the summary for 1998. Each contract = 100 oz.
Month Calls Puts
May 1035 961
Jun 3530 700
Aug 1181 46
Oct 4314 66
Dec 916 39
Huge Call / Put ratio for months Aug to Dec will probably change later - it is always like tike this when we talk about longer period options.
Most popular calls series in May - 305 ( 560 ) and 310 ( 316 ) , while most of puts in May are 305 ( 801 ) . Looking at this figures, I can assume, that at the day of expiration of May options Gold price will be a little bit above 305.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:11 - ID#284255)
STRATFOR's Forecast for Second Quarter 1998
Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
April 6, 1998

The first quarter of 1998 was highlighted by four intersecting phenomena,
which will affect events in the second quarter:

* For the first time since the end of the Cold War, an international
coalition blocked a major American politico-military initiative, an air
campaign against Iraq.

* The Asian crisis continued to lurch along, destabilizing Indonesia and
Korea and wreaking havoc on the key economies in the region -- Japan and

* Global oil prices fell to their lowest level in real terms since prior
to the 1973 Arab oil embargo.

* The Russian government fell, with future plans and policies left in

Each of these events are part of the process, which we named in our annual
forecast ( ) , The
Year of Logical Consequences.

In our 1998 forecast we wrote that: "To the rest of the world, the United
States appears simultaneously arrogant and indecisive . The growing sense
of frustration with the Untied States is global. It is not yet matched to
a growing sense of power. However, in Asia, Russia, The Middle East and
Europe, the ongoing, increasingly open conversation consists of plans to
block or supercede American power."

This anti-American coalition broke into the open during the recent American
adventure in Iraq. A broad-based coalition, including Russia, China,
France and Saudi Arabia, formed to block the United States from striking
against Iraq. The United States, of course, had other considerations in
deciding not to strike at Iraq. Nevertheless, the event was historic in
the sense that, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, the
United States was not only unable to organize a coalition in support of its
policies, but an effective and open anti-American coalition was formed.
This is not a passing phenomenon. As we have noted, the international
system tends toward a balance of power in the same way that markets tend
toward price equilibrium. As powerful as the United States is, the
counterweight to the United States must be broad. Except for Britain and
Germany, no major power supported U.S. policy.

We expect this global coalition of France, Russia and China to continue to
act to thwart U.S. politico-military adventures. Indeed, we expect this
coalition to gradually move toward a more formal expression. Each of these
nations has their own motivation in resisting the United States. The
Chinese see the Americans as trying to contain the expansion of Chinese
influence in Asia, while at the same time being behind the failure of
efforts to stabilize the economic situation. The Russians are increasingly
concerned with reasserting their geopolitical hegemony within the former
Soviet Union's borders as well as with traditional allies, particularly
those in the Middle East. They see American policy as deliberately designed
to thwart them in this effort, both in expanding NATO and increasing their
influence in Central Asia. France, with a long tradition of resisting U.S.
hegemony, sees itself with emerging interests in the Middle East,
particularly in the area of energy development, and sees the United States
as an obstacle.

These three powers, taken together, cannot match American economic or
military power. But they do bring with them a host of other countries.
The United States retains the ability to act in opposition to their wishes,
but what this coalition has done is to raise the political price of such
actions beyond what the United States is rationally prepared to pay. The
United States could have struck against Saddam regardless of what this
tripartite alignment had in mind, but the price would have been
disproportional. We expect to see this alignment playing an increasing
role in trying to bring the international system into balance.

At the same time, we must understand that the American decision not to
strike at Saddam had other reasons behind it. STRATFOR's Global
Intelligence Updates chronicled the crisis from its beginnings. It has been
our consistent view that American fear of Iranian participation in the
Greco-Syrian-Iraqi entente forced the United States to seek an
accommodation with Iran. That process of accommodation, which we have
tracked since September, continues to intensify. It has been our view
that, to a large extent, American bellicosity toward Iraq was part of an
attempt by the United States to convince the Iranians that the United
States is committed to bringing down Saddam and to rectifying the outcome
of the Iraq-Iran War.

The last quarter has seen Iran provide a tour de force of diplomacy.
Tehran simultaneously manipulated the United States into courting it, while
enhancing its relations with Russia, China and France. Most important,
Iran has managed to dramatically increase its influence within the Persian
Gulf region. The extended visit of former Iranian President Rafsanjani to
Saudi Arabia resulted both in heightened tensions within Saudi Arabia's
Royal Family between pro and anti-American factions, as well as a serious
consideration by Saudi Arabia of what would have been unthinkable only a
year ago: Saudi participation in an Iranian sponsored regional entity
designed to replace the United States as regional policeman. With Iranian
President Khatami planning to visit Saudi Arabia following the end of the
current Islamic Hajj period, we expect the Iranian diplomatic offensive to
continue unabated, and with a very real chance of success.

Driving this process is an unprecedented lever: the collapse of oil prices
to levels not seen since before 1973. One of the consequences of this
decline is that Saudi Arabia has been placed in an extraordinarily
difficult position. Saudi Arabia has concentrated on production, with some
refining and little downstream operations. It also bet heavily on the
growth of the Asian market and developed strong relations there. The
collapse of Asia has dealt Saudi Arabia a terrific blow, while its failure
to develop effective vertical integration has left it extremely exposed to
price declines. We feel that Saudi Aramco is heavily exposed financially
at this point. It is already cutting back on several development projects,
but we also feel that it will be facing serious debt problems by this
summer and fall if prices don't rise.

The recent agreement with Venezuela and Mexico, which was confirmed at the
March 30 OPEC meeting in Vienna, has not solved the problem. The market,
which is oversold, tends to respond uncritically to news, such as the
report that China, a net importer of crude, would cut domestic production.
This indicates to us that there is now a floor under the price of crude.
However, this does not mean that the price will rise and without a rather
strong rise in the price of oil, which is not likely to happen by agreement
alone, Saudi Arabia is in serous financial trouble.

There is one clear solution to the problem. According to the International
Energy Agency, excess oil production is running about 2 million barrels a
day. Current cuts, if implemented, will be less than 2 million barrels,
which leaves a surplus and therefore is insufficient to boost prices.
There is, however, a single source of oil which if cut off would
immediately solve the problem. Iraq currently is producing about 2.3
million barrels a day. Were that oil to be taken off the market, the
entire equation of energy prices would shift.

An idee fixe of Iranian foreign policy is reversing the outcome of its war
with Iraq. Oil prices, while of some consequence to Iran, are not the
central issue that they are for Saudi Arabia. For Iran, action against
Iraq is not possible so long as the United States might intervene to
restore the balance of power. Clearly, the United States would not come in
to save Saddam, and a successful attack by Iran might bring Saddam down,
followed by an intervention on behalf of a new government. No such
intervention is possible without Saudi Arabian territory and equipment
prepositioned in Saudi Arabia. Therefore, the key for Iranian policy is to
move Saudi Arabia out of the U.S. camp. The oil price collapse has
provided Iran with the needed leverage.

We are of the opinion that there exists a substantial possibility of
unilateral Iranian action against Iraq in the coming quarter. Saudi Arabia
clearly does not want to see Iran dominating the region. On the other
hand, we think that Saudi Arabia's financial condition has become so
serious that it may be forced to agree to dangerous undertakings that hold
open the possibility of raising the price of oil. Iraq is working hard to
make such an action meaningless, by reducing the need for Turkish
intervention in the North. Turkey, which wants to see Iraqi oil flowing
through Turkish pipelines, would not be pleased with an attack. Hence,
there has been interesting cooperation between the Iraq and Turkey on the
Kurdish question. Turkey remains a problem for Iranian policy.

A final threat to Iranian plans stems from the internal struggle between
conservatives and moderates in Tehran. On Saturday, Tehran Mayor
Gholamhossein Karbaschi, a close ally of President Khatami, was arrested on
corruption charges. This is perhaps the most overt challenge to Khatami
and his reformist agenda by Iran's conservative faction to date. Should
Khamenei choose this moment to rein in Khatami, the resulting inward focus
may temporarily distract the Iranians from their foreign policy goals.
Nevertheless, we judge the possibility of a renewal of the Iran-Iraq
conflict as substantial in the coming quarter.

The resignation of the Russian government complicates matters further. We
have long expected a reversal in Russian economic and foreign policy and we
believe that this government reshuffle signifies this reversal. The most
powerful men now remaining in the government, Boris Nemtsov and Yevgenii
Primakov, represent pragmatic, moderately nationalistic perspectives.
Nemtsov is the architect of Russian energy policy while Primakov is the
architect of Russia's Middle East policies. Together, this indicates
increasing focus on regaining influence in Central Asia, lost when the
Soviet Union collapsed. Russia needs Central Asian oil and it needs
Central Asia's geography to assert its influence. In the long run, this
brings Russia into conflict with Iran. In the short run, it dovetails
Russian foreign policy with Iranian: both want the Americans out of Central

So do the Chinese. China, on the one hand desperately trying to stave off
the Asian fever, needs the U.S. economic support. On the other hand, China
fears that the United States is feeding separatist movements in western
China, both in Tibet and Xinjiang. Thus, the Chinese would be delighted to
see the U.S. position in Central Asia dismantled. But the core concern of
China is financial, which means that its foremost concerns are with the
Asian crisis.

The region appears about to enter phase three of the crisis. The first
phase was the long, slow deterioration of the Japanese economy. The second
phase was the sudden implosion of the Korean and ASEAN economies. The
third phase will be the intensification of the Japanese crisis and its
spread to China. We have commented extensively on both of these problems.
The Japanese are finally facing the depths of their problems. The Chinese,
and Western banks and investment houses heavily invested in China, are
still in denial. However, with ASEAN imports disappearing, and China's
unwillingness to devalue its currency, China is now in an impossible
position. Because of secrecy, we will not know how bad the Chinese
situation is until it actually cracks apart, but there is no way that the
ASEAN crisis and the Japanese banking crisis have left China's economy

We therefore see the second quarter as a period of intensifying crisis. We
see the probability of an Iranian-Iraqi confrontation as quite high,
mitigated only by Turkish policy. We believe oil prices have probably
bottomed, but we don't see upside potential unless some substantial source
of crude is taken off-line. We think Iraq is the prime candidate for that
role. We believe we will be seeing an intensification of the Asian crisis,
particularly in Japan and China and believe that observers should be aware
of the political consequences. Finally, and most important, we are seeing
an intensifying relationship between France, Russia and China, less planned
than instinctive at this point, designed to limit U.S. global power.

In the meantime, the extraordinary American boom, fueled by Asian money and
extraordinary growth in productivity, continues. The strange situation in
which the U.S. floats above an increasingly unsettled world remains intact.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:15 - ID#26669)
Another spin on Clinton's "gun control" bidness.
Interesting, but the US domestic firearms industry is scattered throughout the heavily Democratic US region fondly known as the Rust Belt. Could Mr. Clinton's most recent imperial decree be a way of protecting overpriced domestic products from foreign competition without alerting his free trade cronies? He might be tacitly admitting that while we can do without a domestic basketball shoe industry we can't survive without solvent weapons factories.

We see similar "interesting" incentives in US government support of its own coinage programmes and dicencentives for foreign coin purchases. The world is a complex place.

All IMHO of course. I know nothing. I see nothing.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:18 - ID#26793)
Bema Gold news

(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:18 - ID#258129)
@farfel, 19:00
Of course, Holland is a small country and can not determine monetary policy of whole EU. It is not what I am talking about. I think that Duisenberg, as former President not only Dutch CB, but also BIS, knows well the real price of Gold. And personalities sometimes are important, right?

Strad Master
(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:20 - ID#250297)
WB's missing 30 million ozs of silver
RHODY: I posted EXACTLY the same story about a week ago as the one you posted at 18:27. The source I got it from was very reliable so, although as you point out, it is still a rumor it is, nevertheless, coming from a number of different places. I think it is a far more believable story than the one that WB is selling anything.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:21 - ID#248180)
Japan & Russia ( I'll bet you that EGGS & CHICKENS won't get a mention)
Yeltsin Puts off Japan Trip by One Week

MOSCOW -- ( Reuters ) President Boris Yeltsin on Friday postponed his April 11-13 trip to Japan by one week due to political uncertainty in Russia following his decision to nominate a new prime minister.

Japan's Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying Yeltsin told Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto by telephone that he was delaying the trip due to "Russia's internal situation."

The statement, issued in London where Hashimoto was attending a meeting of 25 European Union and Asian leaders, also said the visit would be shortened to two days from three.

Russian officials were not immediately available to comment but Itar-Tass news agency quoted a Kremlin press spokesman as saying the delay would give both sides more time to prepare for the informal talks.

It said Hashimoto agreed with Yeltsin that it would be "more expedient to hold their meeting after the appointment of Russia's new prime minister."

The Russian parliament must debate and vote on Yeltsin's choice, outgoing energy minister Sergei Kiriyenko, by next Friday.

If the opposition-dominated chamber fails to back Kiriyenko the political turmoil could continue for weeks. If his candidate is rejected three times, Yeltsin would have to dissolve the Duma and call early elections.

The Japanese Foreign Ministry statement said: "President Yeltsin told Prime Minister Hashimoto that because of the internal situation in Russia he would unfortunately have to delay his visit, which was originally scheduled to start on April 11 to the weekend of April 18/19."

Yeltsin told Hashimoto he was extremely sorry and hoped the Japanese leader would understand the reason. Hashimoto replied that he understood Yeltsin's reasons and was looking forward to the rearranged visit.

Yeltsin earlier discussed Russia's relations with Japan with acting First Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov and Sergei Yastrzhembsky, his press spokesman and foreign policy adviser, at his country residence outside Moscow.

Yastrzhembsky told Interfax new agency that Yeltsin was satisfied with the improvement in Moscow's long troubled ties with Tokyo since his informal "no-neckties" talks with Hashimoto in Siberia last November.

He said Yeltsin hoped to discuss "new ideas" with Hashimoto at this month's talks, due to take place on the Izu peninsula southwest of Tokyo but he gave no details.

Russia and Japan, once bitter Cold War foes, remain at loggerheads over the ownership of four Pacific islands. The issue has blocked the signing of a peace treaty formally ending World War II hostilities.

Hashimoto signaled a more flexible attitude to the territorial dispute last year, saying Russia and Japan should try to improve their broader economic and political relations.

At their November meeting he and Yeltsin pledged to work towards signing a peace treaty by the year 2000. (  ( c ) 1998 Reuters

(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:23 - ID#26793)
Asian crisis seen restoring traditional role of gold as store of value

Bill Buckler
(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:24 - ID#256381)
Gold Correction
Strongman ( 18:26 ) There can be "corrections" within a day's trade, you know. Take the example of Gold briefly diving below $290 intra-day back on March 18 when Belgium announced their Gold sale. It got almost all of it back by the close of trade and that has proved to be the start of this run.

I have heard that Gold traded over $315 briefly in Paris. If you are on Kitco using Bart's "frames" page, you can see the big intra day move in NY today.

I posted earlier on the fact that Gold breached its 40 week MA and its downtrend line on the $1x3 P&F chart today before falling back near the close. That's a "correction" in itself.

Without meaning to denigrate your legitimate concerns in any way, I must repeat that I find the caution and skepticism about Gold being able to continue this upmove very encouraging. This is the classic wall of worry syndrome. I don't think too many people here at Kitco doubt that Gold has bottomed. If it has, then we all have to relearn what it is like to get onboard a bull market at its start. Cast your mind back to the summer of 1982 in the stock market. Remember that?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:28 - ID#26793)
10 million Indian weddings to absorb 300 tonnes and other Indian gold stats.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:29 - ID#255151)

There are times when I think the US ought to just say the Hell with Russia, China, France, and the Middle East and concentrate on strengthening ties with Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. The wealth, land area, and resources match any combination that could be put together by anyone else. Let Europe and Asia worry about the Mid-East, Kosovo, Serbia, etc.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:31 - ID#340302)
@DELPHI...ultimately, the board of directors will determine...
...all matters of importance re: the EURO. The board looks as though it will be composed primarily of countries favorable to gold. In any case, my expectation is that Germany ( via ISSING ) will dominate key decisions regarding the EURO policies...and Germany is in full gold accumulation mode ( as per the revelations from the London Telegraph last month, with Switzerland acting as Germany's purchasing proxy ) .


(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:32 - ID#26793)
South African gold sector needs change

(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:35 - ID#208393)
GEO - Ranked #1 by Yahoo
A Canadian gold mining stock that produces gold and has earnings. On this anniversary date of Bre-X check it out at...

(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:35 - ID#332340)
Alaska Permanent Fund to purchase 6.75 million oz gold.
Alaska's oil fund has over $25 billion invested in real estate and
equities. That is over $35,000 per man, woman, and child in the
state. Please help me to make the title of this message a reality.
I would like some help in drafting a letter to the Governor and board
of Trusties for the Permanent Fund suggesting that they purchase 10
oz of gold for each citizen. That would only take a little over
$2 billion at toady's prices, but would provide a basis for:

1 ) helping Alaska's gold mining industry
2 ) preserving some wealth in uncertain times
3 ) The Permanent Fund could issue an Eagle with each
annual dividend to encourage thrift. ( last year our check
was $1296 and most people blew it )
4 )


PS - Am I glad I left Phibro for the woods back in '92. Would not
want to be in NYC when 99 goes to oh oh.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:36 - ID#113316)

My Compaq 486dx50 is highly modified and 4 years old. I have "OS/2 Warp 3 Connect" installed on a second "drive D" 3.6 gig IBM HD. Win95 resides on the the original "drive C". Win95 has much 16 bit DOS code [FAT file system] remaining in the architecture to support "backward compatible" function. I rarely operate the win95 "C' drive.

OS/2 is *true* 32 bit os, HPFS [high performance file system], multitasking, multithreaded, allowing the operator to open an unlimited number of applications at the same time without any memory or address conflict, as each application is assigned a separate [multithread] address. As I understand it, win95 uses one large "pipe" or address for all open apps. in its system of multitasking. This may not sound like much of a difference, but it makes os/2 much more robust and less likely to crash. Now that I understand its usefulness, multitasking is a large leap forward in the practical application of PC technology. HPFS file system also "reads" FAT file system 16 bit software. This means win3.1 software can run within os/2 in a win/os2 session. This is "IBM Downward Compatibility" technology. It runs win3.1 software as well as MSFT.

os/2 is similar to gold; undervalued and misunderstood. However, it is the top os in the banking system throughout the world.

Its worth investigating.

Go Gold -- CAU up +35% in three trading days.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:47 - ID#411331)
@Strad Master re Buffett Silver sale ....sic..
Thank you for your post. Yours is the story that I paraphrased. I felt that your information should be re-introduced here to provide some balance to the misinformation provided by Merrill Lynch. Thank you for
commenting on the high quality of your sources. I too DO NOT BELIEVE THA W.B. IS IN ANY HURRY TO SELL HIS SILVER. It is amazing how far a lie will go and how many people can be hurt by false reports from a big name liar.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 19:59 - ID#258129)
@farfel, 19:31
Well, Swiss where always financial proxy of Germany, even in WWII. The question now is who will form the ECB board of directors. Permanent representatives of bigger European countries ( Germany, France, Italy, ?UK ) or it will be on rotation basis, as it is usual in other European Union bodies.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 20:06 - ID#286349)
@Bill Buckler
Thanks for your thoughts and observations regarding corrections. I'm beginning to think that at some point all technical indicators will go out the window regarding gold and it will just mystify us with its continuing rise day after day.

Lan Man
(Mon Apr 06 1998 20:21 - ID#320108)
@U.S. Fractional Reserve Debt System
From "The Power of Total Perspective" by R.E. McMaster, Jr. - page 254:

The fact that in the Middle Ages, during the first Industrial Revolution, as well as in early American history, a man only had to work a third of a year to meet all his annual economic needs and live debt-free is incomprehensible to the working slaves today trapped in a win-lose, closed system of fractional reserve debt banking. That there are honest, successful banks which work for the people, which grow by leaps and bounds, which have never had a loan failure, such as The Bank of the People's Labor in Mondragon in the Basque region of Spain, is a reality unknown to the American People.

There is ALSO the Islamic banking system, where the bank effectively acts as an investment agent for its depositors ( the community ) who earn profits from businesses the bank invests in, rather than interest, thus enriching the community overall. These alternatives are not discussed at the educational or professional level in the United States, or by the mass media, much less the politicians. The U.S. fractional reserve debt ( death ) system is anything but people and profit-sharing oriented. There is no equitable balance between the "one and the many" in the U.S. fractional reserve debt system. It can only be a win-lose system short term, a lose-lose system long term.

There is no such thing as the crushing geometric compounding of interest under Islamic banking.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 20:32 - ID#284255)
Not for me - no sir.
I for one wish that the mania's of the good old USA stay well away from the simple and naive countries of OZ and Kiwiland.

Peter Grandich
U.S. Stock Market - I was home ill last Friday and was
flipping through the TV channels. I was taken aback by
how many networks ( non-financial, in particular ) were
covering the Dow going through 9,000. I could
understand 10,000. It's yet another indicator of how many
people are now riding the runaway bull train.

Since I have train tracks all over me from previous stands
in front of the train, I haven't personally played the short
side for a few years now. There's still plenty of momentum
to get to 10,000. ( Trust me it's not fundamentals no matter
how much they try to sell you on the idea ) . Unfortunately,
I don't have the will to play for another 11% or so
particularly since I have great reservations that for the first
time it is indeed different this time and finally, everyone
lives happily ever after.

Two facts arose on Friday that I thought were worth
running by you.

1.The increase in market value during the first quarter
in just two companies, Microsoft and GE,
surpassed the total increase in the GDP.
2.The Chicago Mercantile Exchange ( CME ) filed a
proposal yesterday to trade futures on - are you
ready for this? - the number of U.S. bankruptcy
filings. Can you see it now? Several hotshot,
25-year-old fund managers are long the contract
and are just praying that some more unlucky souls
go bankrupt. I don't know about you but it kind of
makes me less proud to have been part of the Wall
Street scene. CAN YOU SPELL T-U-L-I-P-S?

US Bonds - Put a gun to my head ( but make sure it's
loaded ) and I buy bonds versus stocks. Otherwise, no
long-term paper for me.

US Dollar - It has a lot going for it, particularly against
the Yen, but I feel any sharp rise could be the blow-off
top. I am particularly interested to see how it fairs when
the ECU is a true competitor. But then again, Clinton
could pull his pants down at his next press conference and
the Dow would skyrocket along with bonds and the US
dollar. Clinton has given new meaning to slick ( Willie ) . Gold - I am very proud of the "fact" that I never hedged
my forecasts when I was a financial advisor. Words like if,
but, and maybe are all too common these days.

I believe my Miami Gold Show commentary on gold
( March 16 ) clearly noted my return to the very bullish
camp for gold Two Keys -

1.Get to and stay above $325. This will all but
certainly bring in a lot of technical buying which
could ignite a fairly strong short-covering rally and
producer buy-back programs.
2.A clear announcement on what role, if any, gold
will have in the new European Central Bank ( look
at my March 16 commentary for details ) . The
surprise here could be to the bullish side.

Let me remind you that my observations and commentary
are not to be taken as investment advice. Also, most
junior resource companies will not turn into producers so
"failure" is the norm, not success, in this segment of the

With this in mind let me say it's my observation that the
major gold producers have as a group ( based on the
XAU ) turned up nicely. Meanwhile, the juniors are
looking to be either totally washed out or already in new
bullish base-building phases. A significant junior rally is
now a distinct possibility.

My swing chart is now looking very ominous.
The equity markets need to lift their act here and now or risk starting downhill.
The internals are breaking down.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 20:33 - ID#421269)
@ Preacher

That little 5.5 millon extra oz. of gold that BGO just announced finding should help our cause. How about that CAU it ain' t to shabby either.
Maybe by the time gold corrects back to 290 those still on the sidelines,
well thats ANOTHER story------.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 20:38 - ID#376309)
Yvan Auger
Well the XAU met it's '90' target and gold hit it's target of $315.00 ( spot ) EXACTLY!! He's been hot! Now get ready for the move down to 35 on the XAU and new lows in GOLD!!!

Please don't blame the messinger, I'm just tring to view this in an open and objective manner. You can't have ALL BULLS in this group. Alittle reality every now and then is good.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 20:52 - ID#35767)
GLENN - The New George S. Cole in reverse.
Gold- 1000 per oz within one year.
Dow Bottoms at 1300 in July-Aug 2000.

Glenn called for 35 xau long ago and was a bear on gold as it refused to fall. He is now in denial and therefore is the new George S. Cole version for the bears. If you look at gold's action in relation to the "fun" da "mentals" it is fabulous. This rise has occurred with. Merrill bad mouthing Siver this AM/ a risin' dollar and collapsing commodity and oil prices. G O O D B Y E D O L L A R!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 20:53 - ID#253246)
Isure CAU

April issue of GSA reports six majors examining CAU to Joint Venture
McDonald property. New Briggs crushers operating fine; leach rate
builds to full production by early Q2 98.

CAU hit low on 3/19 @ 5/8 another 1/16 thats a double in 3 weeks

Looking for another double with JV announcement

(Mon Apr 06 1998 20:58 - ID#227238)
Glenn: Do you have any idea of the rationale behind Yauger's call for 35 on the XAU? At your behest, I visited his site the other day and noted his intermediate call for 35 but failed to see any explanation or reasoning for making the call. Under these circumstances, it does seem extreme ...... but, what the hell, so was $285 POG.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:00 - ID#421269)

Will buy extra puts in the morning. Thanks for you concern.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:01 - ID#421269)

Will buy extra puts in the morning. Thanks for your concern.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:02 - ID#421269)

Will buy extra puts in the morning. Thanks for your concern.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:08 - ID#401460)
S L O W I N T E R N E T ?

A few problems on the internet today and again tonight.
Kitco Chart down again, and access and posting slow all day.

Yahoo, quote access also slow.

May be a sign of things to come?

Let's go Gold, try that 313 again.


(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:10 - ID#267276)
I had a e-mail conversation with yauger the other day and he thanked me for calling him a pure chartist. He follows the Elliot Wave theory and does not let outside influences change his course. I believe that the elliot wave theorist look at gold as a commodity only and do not consider the interrelation of it as a currency. Therefore gold wears two hats one I believe is chartable and one that reacts to the whims of central bankers and politicians. As far as a currency goes gold will prevail, just look at the fluxuations in the world money markets a major charge must take place soon or we could have a complete financial collapse

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:12 - ID#255151)

Re US manias--Point well taken. I want no part of them either.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:14 - ID#331205)
sharefin 19:11
The STRATFOR Forecast outlines the possibility of Saudi Arabia joining Iran in a regional coalition.
This could be an answer to the question of who would stand for Saudi Arabia. The Kuwaitis would
be sensitive to this also, and the gold could flow.
When is the end of the current Islamic Hajj period?
Thanks for the info.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:15 - ID#288295)
This call of Yvan Auger's is essentially ( perhaps exactly ) the same as forecast by Bob Prechter of the Elliott Wave Theorist for quite some time.....FWIW, there was a Canadian trading/forecasting system ( can't recall the name ) posted on this site a few days ago which is calling for a very similar result - a new high in the Toronto Precious Metals Index the last week of July, followed by a precipitous fall to new extreme lows thereafter.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:18 - ID#288295)

To add something to your last post, Y.Auger ( and everybody else ) is doing their gold chart work on the basis of PAPER gold, not the real stuff.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:27 - ID#227238)
Digdeep: Thanks for your comment. I don't disparage the call or quarrel with it in any way. It would just be nice to hear an explanation for the position. I'm not sure that Ewave is limited to commodities/equities. As a physical manifestation of human action, it would seem to me to be just as applicable to gold in its role as a quasi monetary element as well. But then, if I was an avid Ewaver I would have no need to ask the question.

In a larger sense, stated positions without accompanying rationale always strike me a less than credible. The recent 3-2-5 mantra comes to mind. In the end it was correct but there was never any rationale behind. ..... As in: "Trust me, the check is in the mail."

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:30 - ID#304282)
What Mania??

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:31 - ID#230216)
can you say....
K-E-Y R-E-V-E-R-S-A-L...

Lookie here:

go to June looks REAL ominus ( sp? ) .....kinda like the black clouds currently outside ( ugh ) out below. How far will it go? I say sub 300 again... This train has not left the depot yet. uh huh. More of the same choppy stuff, eh. This battle being raged by bull&bear will prove to be furious and frenzied.....making and breaking along the way. uh huh. Right George? It's gonna blow through your 306....oh yeah, I forgot, he ain't reading my posts anymore....... ( aw shucks ) ....... :- ( watch the fall......oh dear!


Bart....did you ship me that Mountie yet? oh boy! {:- ) )

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:34 - ID#230216)
Earl just reminded me of one thing....
The check is in the really. But I guess if I wait I could pick it up for less.....hmmmmmmmmmm. tackle the postman

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:37 - ID#348286)
@COMEX gold warehouse stocks dropped 96,147 ounces to 623,639 ounces !!!
THIS is a 13.5 % drop in one day! Why isn't anyone discussing this?
I smell something going on in COMEX. There have been too many up and down days with large stocks coming and going. Is this normal, don't think so.
My own take is that they have been warned to increase stocks by insiders as something will come down, soon.........

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:37 - ID#255151)

There are indeed mantras chanted at Kitco. Happy to report that I will never resort to chanting a simplistic, monosyllabic phrase. Go Gold!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:39 - ID#267276)
Elliot Wave
I suscribe to the monthly Elliot Wave Forcast by Prechter and it has cost me plenty over the last few years. His book "AT THE CREST OF THE TITAL WAVE" came out about 2 1/2 years ago, of course I rushed to get a copy right away. Prechter who is a pure chartist always gives many human stories as to the manner in which humans are now acting. His examples of how crowd behavior is taking place and so forth but for some reason they never give any credit to the powers of central bankers, politicians and oligarchs.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:42 - ID#340302)
@GLENN...XAU@35? Thank you for providing my day's good laugh... and Aurator are my favorite clowns on this forum.

Thank you.


(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:44 - ID#257148)

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:44 - ID#340302)
@MOREGOLD...thank you for providing first notice...
...of some good fun awaiting the COMEX gold stocks over the next little while.



(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:44 - ID#390249)
Comex gold stocks
Per Kaplan's report today, comex gold stocks dropped 96,000 oz today! A. Goose, do you know if this is eligible or registered?

Kaplan's report is most interesting today. sorry if this has already been posted but I've been having difficulty accessing this site all day.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:47 - ID#227238)
EB: Yes, I noted the same pattern you termed an island reversal, on today's chart. Ordinarily it would be an ominous candlestick if it were to appear in a major trend of some length. Given that this trend has not been in place for a long period, it MAY NOT be as significant as it would otherwise be. ..... It does bear watching however. ...... BTW, the letters: NSF, mean the same thing on a check in Canada as they do in the US. Uhuh, they do. : )

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:48 - ID#340302)
@AURATOR...please stop... sides are splitting. You are TOO funny.


(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:51 - ID#227238)
Auric: A guy can be excused for enthusiasm. Besides there is a world of difference between a "Cheer" and a "Position". Eh? : )

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:51 - ID#288295)

You and me too, pal - early victims of Prechter's Tidal Wave.....

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:52 - ID#316269)
Steven Kaplan
Would anyone please let me know where I can locate Kaplan's review for today?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:54 - ID#390249)
Lou Jan
Sorry I meant to post Kaplan's site. Here it is.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:56 - ID#316269)
Thanks for the info! ( re Kaplan )

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:56 - ID#340459)
Our Slogan
Think Positive, Think Profit

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:56 - ID#348286)
Yer welcome. Could be some interesting fireworks on the horizon....

(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:58 - ID#340302)
@ALL...Steve Kaplan's comments...A MUST READ...
...apparently the gold short position is RAPIDLY INCREASING!!!!

I think I have died and gone to heaven.



(Mon Apr 06 1998 21:59 - ID#340459)
Motorola is going to sink high tech tomorrow

(Mon Apr 06 1998 22:01 - ID#348286)
@CHECK THIS OUT: 8 out of the 10 most actives on the TSE were Gold stocks....
( needless to say, all UP ) :

(Mon Apr 06 1998 22:02 - ID#287277)
If Germany, France & England can....
China nicely interlaced in South American trade; Japan finally disenchanted with following Western Instructions--two very wealthy, very powerful states...

Published in ASIAN AFFAIR, Summer,1997.
Copyright  1997 by ASIAN AFFAIRS
The PRC and Latin America: From Indifference to Engagement
by Frank O. Mora
The visit of Chinese Minister of Foreign Economic Relations and Trade ( MOFERT ) , Wu Yi, to seven Latin American countries in June 1996 in order to strengthen and expand economic and commercial relations with the region is but the most recent instance of BEIJING'S TWO DECADE OLD POLICY OF ESTABLISHING DIPLOMATIC AND ECONOMIC RELATIONS WITH A REGION TRADITIONALLY OUT BEIJING'S SCOPE OF INTEREST. Minister Wu's month-long visit, the longest and largest ( 24 government officials and business executives ) Chinese delegation to have toured the region, was given the task of fortifying and expanding trade, which more than doubled in the past five years from US$2.9 billion in 1989 to US$6.1 billion in 1995; the number of joint ventures during the same period increased from 40 to 160. Since 1989 Sino-Latin America relations have intensified to a degree unimaginable by many only fifteen years ago. This dramatic change in Sino-Latin American relations is a result of Beijing's strategy to diversify its markets and sources of investments in an attempt to reduce its vulnerability to US political and economic pressures...."

Important to view Japanese position now within its economic history matrix--they acquiesced at Bonn...
Social Science Japan No.7 August 1996 University of Tokyo.
Copyright  Institute of Social Science All rights reserved.
William W. GRIMES

Japan and the Problem of International Economic Coordination

INTERNATIONAL economic coordination in the post-Bretton Woods era has not been good to Japan. Career MOF officials still lament the effects of the locomotive strategy of the Bonn Summit, which had Japan carrying out a fiscal stimulus just in time for the second oil crisis ( personal interviews ) . Moreover, it has become common wisdom that the train of events set in motion by the Plaza Agreement of 1985 led inexorably to the bubble economy of the late 1980s, and thence to the present recession ( see, for example, NHK, 1996 ) . Thank you very much.

SilverBaron@480.grains Thank you very much.! You are really quite incredible! Eloquent, Elegant and Enjoyable. A large and imaginative menu of Tasty Knowledge Offerings served with impeccable style [and at very reasonable prices] at Maison Aurator!

JTF@Win95.FAT.INFO Thanks JTF! {:- )

News of Japans Economic Death may be ....exaggerated?
Headlines from DNYA April 6, 1998 Monday
Anadolu-Honda to Increase Capacity Anadolu-Honda Group has decided to increase its capacity to 50 thousand cars/year from the present
30 thousand. The supplementary investment in Gebze will be completed in 1999.Manufacture of Honda Civic will start with %31 locally produced parts, which will gradually increase to %70.

Folks, if their financial system goes, it ALL goes...[imho]

(Mon Apr 06 1998 22:03 - ID#227238)
Digdeep: Evidently, we read it together. ...... so to speak. I didn't base any decisions on the book however. In fact the only item that has stuck in my mind from the entire treatise, is his call for $100 POG. Try as I might, I cannot imagine the circumstances that will surround such an event. Should it occur.

As regards the technical prognistication of POG, I don't think enough weight is ever given to the 40 year break in the open market for gold. That discontinuity should be given more consideration when long term projections are being formulated. As I recall, Prechter did not offer any soothing comments in that regard. ..... The technical distortions created in that period may plague us still.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 22:03 - ID#230216)
earl the pearl
Go to the same chart....ok. Now, look back to December. Now, tell me what kind of trend was being established then? The trend was less than two weeks old and then....... ( BAM! ) set new lows... ( and EB was one wink heavier, thanks D.A. ) . And besides the trend for gold is down anyway......depending on who you talk to. EH? ;- )
BTW...the check will clear... ( I am using '97 gold-short profits ) .....and it is in the mail...and thanks for the spell check.
away.....from work....tengo hambre, hombre.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 22:03 - ID#288369)
@You'll know we have arrived when.....
the Chairman of the LBMA withdraws to his morning chamber, accesses Kitco, hurredly absorbs the posts, returns to the clubhouse and announces the spot price of gold. I bet these crusty fellows wonder, at least a bit, about all us johnnie-come-latelys becoming somewhat knowledgeable of their game.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 22:05 - ID#16255)
Yepper, stratospheric p/e's, banning of semiautomatic weapons
( slick hunts with a semi-auto shotgun ) your comment had me
ROTFL! ( rolling on the floor laughing ) hey I am still on windows
3.1 and it does all I will ever need! Thanks for the humor!!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 22:06 - ID#340302)
Excuse me...disregared my previous post. I wish to remain cool and circumspect...just go read Kaplan's site...most informative...and provides fairly good grounds to remain optimistic about gold's upswing.



(Mon Apr 06 1998 22:10 - ID#230216)
oh yeah....
Same Chart.....go to late September.......before gold fell off the planet into the made the same pattern ( more or less ) . That pattern is called my attention and I profited.....BIG. And no direction was established then either.......OK.
away....I am really hungry now.

go gold.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 22:30 - ID#344308)


(Mon Apr 06 1998 22:43 - ID#255151)

Chaostan seems like a good place to steer clear of, eh!

(Mon Apr 06 1998 22:43 - ID#344308)


(Mon Apr 06 1998 22:43 - ID#411112)
Don't want to pour cold water here,vacation over,back to work to-morrow,advice to all
don't sweat over trying to pick the bottom by $20 gold and lots of it.....the only asset that has held value for 5000 years they are going to throw everthing they can at gold right now...stick to there line...every pull back is a good time to buy........the really cool thing about gold is you hold it in your hands....a bird in the hand..... you know the rest........I DON"T CARE I"AM BUYING MORE

JOE Smith
(Mon Apr 06 1998 22:43 - ID#24869)
That "funny little aussie silver "find gets serious

Appointment of International Consulting Firm


DATE: 1998/4/3


HOMEX - Sydney


The Joint Venture Partners are pleased to advise that they have
engaged international consulting firm Behre Dolbear Australia Pty.
Ltd., the Sydney based subsidiary of the United States consulting
firm, Behre Dolbear and Company Inc of Denver, to assist in the
evaluation of the Elizabeth Hill silver deposit.

The terms of reference include an evaluation of all work to date and
recommendations on the ongoing development programme.

Behre Dolbear were chosen due to their expertise in silver deposits
in North America and Mexico.

The terms of reference also include assessment of platinum and
palladium prospectivity.

The programme will commence Tuesday 7 April 1998.

L White

(Mon Apr 06 1998 22:46 - ID#344308)



(Mon Apr 06 1998 22:53 - ID#237149)
It was only a joke!
OURO__A ( WB's Silver back to COMEX? ) ID#237149:
Some of my sources indicated to me that some of WB's silver has been sold out at the $7.00 rangeand that it could be flowing back into COMEX ( at least some of it ) . Isn't WB a long term player? What's going on? My concern is that this may bring the price of silver back further down...anyone knows anything about WBs sale of silver?


(Mon Apr 06 1998 22:58 - ID#225273)
Market Comments
To all:

This was a good day. I've been having a lot of computer trouble. I finally got my desktop back from Compaq and it won't work correctly and they certainly don't know what the problem is.

Let's start with silver as I see something very interesting. I want silver followers to look at the daily chart and see if they can visualize the formation of a head-and-shoulders bottom that will, once completed, take the price above the FEB high.
I'd like to see silver hold above $6.03 on this pullback. The breakout will come at last Friday's high of $6.80. Think about it.
CDE fell a tad today but closed in the top half of its range. It doesn't want to give much ground. I think there's a reason for that: there's still strength underneath this market.

Gold jumped over its 200-day MA this morning and looked very strong. The limp-to-the-close tells me we're in for a couple of down days. But I think there is at least one more push in gold to the upside, and it could be a doozy. BTW, it has been June 1996 since gold has been above its 200-day MA. Welcome back!

In the XAU, I'm still of the opinion that Friday's opening gap may not be filled. There is a downside gap from last autumn around the 105 area. I think that is the XAU's next target, although I look for a couple of down days immediately in front of us.

Hang tough. There are more upside surprises on the way, if the picture I see is correct.
Where did Newcomer go? A few weeks ago, four or five, he said gold would go to $320 near-term. I have not heard from him before nor since. But his one and only post made a lot of sense to me.
Come back , Newcomer

The Vancouver Stock Exchange Index was only up .44 today. The excitement has still not made it to the exploration stocks. It is though, creating a climate in which exploration stocks that find something will be rewarded. But who wants to depend on an exploration stock finding something? I like it when they triple with only moose pasture. Come on back, speculators.

Happy trading,

The Preacher

(Mon Apr 06 1998 23:06 - ID#340302)
...up until the present, the Dow Index Funds have had it easy. Beginning in the Early '90's, a relatively small amount of liquidity was available for stocks. The genius of the mutual fund cartels is that they targeted this liquidity to special DOW/Nasdaq darlings...and these darlings rose quickly since the initial pool of investment capital was relatively small.

Even more fortunate, there were few if any appealing alternatives. The gold/silver markets were dead in the water, slowly but steadily expiring over the last decade. The only other significant financial alternatives, BONDS and REAL ESTATE, turned in lackluster performances which only recently in the last year or so turned upward dramatically...this fact owing to the vogue of talking up impending deflation in the economy ( re: BONDS attractiveness ) or when talking up hard assets ( re: REAL ESTATE ) . Naturally, in either negative economic scenario, the establishment will always espouse BONDS & REAL ESTATE over PM's.

However, now in early '98, the returns so far in gold & silver have been outstanding....the DOW index funds, owing to the huge amounts of invested monies and the lofty heights obtained ( values of companies must increase
astronomically simply to register a mere 10% increase in the DOW ) , are lagging quite well behind so far.

Ultimately, capital is attracted to the hottest sector. It should not be long before index fund capital turns its attention to PM's...and there is every reason to believe index capital will be attracted to this sector
as metal to a magnet. Although there is little doubt that the index funds have behaved as a de facto cartel to date, just like OPEC, a cartel can crumble to some degree. Self -interested index capital is bound to defect at some point and enter PM's full stream. Witness Peter Lynch, father of Fidelity, turning into a major goldbug.

Therein lies the tragic flaw in mutual index fund strategies...targeting capital to certain specific DOW stocks, then watching the entire stock market track their path, is financially shrewd and viable PROVIDED THAT THERE ARE NO ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT SECTORS THAT OUTPERFORM THE INDEX FUNDS. In such a situation, then one can only expect that mutual fund capital will begin to shift loyalty to those sectors in which it will earn a higher return.


(Mon Apr 06 1998 23:08 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Sharp Peak .... Short term trouble?

(Mon Apr 06 1998 23:11 - ID#340302)
@And I leave you once again with the words of A.GOOSE...

(Mon Apr 06 1998 23:13 - ID#284255)
Email Chatter
, To help your task of forcasting the price of YRI, I would like to add the price of Gold. I technically trade the metal and at this point see tremendous upside of the metal this year...It is trading as we speak at higher levels and supplies are mysteriously being depleated at the COMEX...Now with the Central banks holding the yellow metal back from the market and 8,000 tons held in short positions, this could be a very explosive and interesting year for all the quality Precious metals. Now add the fact that the XAU has broken out of a Bull Wedge/Head and Shoulders bottom, and you will start to get the big money leading the small investor into this market. I have already made 50% on my money holding TVX in just 4 weeks, and look for much higher returns in the next 4 weeks, as the big money managers come diving back in...And to add gasoline to the fire, I ( IMHO ) will project that silver will hit $10 this year ( you can let me know in December if I am wrong ) . As always, no one can guarantee results and this is no guarantee, but I have been trading the metal for over 25 years and this move up ( I believe ) is for real.
To all, best of luck in your endeavors, but keep the faith.
Re: silver spilling over into the hallway. MV hit upon one of the keys - refinery capacity - in short-term analysis of supply/demand for any metal. Silver refiners have been running at about full capacity. Remember that the vast majority of silver is a by-product of mining/refining other metals, a copper producer, for example, will not crank up copper production in a big way ( copper being in a bit of over-supply ) to earn a little more on added silver output, while losing big time by producing too much copper.
Hence, in the short run we must look to the scrap refiners ( Handy & Harmon, Englehard, etc. ) for the increase in silver supply. Their capacity is limited so, in the short run, there will be a lag in raising production. Therefore,because they can't handle all the available scrap, it spills into the hallways.
Some observers believe that because there is a vast, unreported inventory of silver ( old coin, antique tableware, etc. ) there will not be a silver shortage. This misses the point - refinery capacity won't be increased to refine this metal until silver price rises high enough and stays up long enough to assure the owner that the price rise is not temporary. Only then will the refinery owner increase capacity. The full analysis must be conducted to arrive at the correct interpretation.
Because scrap silver inventory can't be refined fast enough to make up for the rising supply shortfall there will be a major blow-off as the short side gets squeezed.
Hedge fund operators can, in a short period of time, buy enough silver to absorb all the available excess inventory. Once worldwide available refined silver inventory is down to about 80 million ounces users will experience lengthening delivery lead times and to them that spells shortage. Then users will begin to hoard and they could readily take up another 100 - 200 million ounces of overhanging inventory.
This, I believe, will trigger a major short squeeze. This scenario looks to me to be a re-play of 1980 with the possibility of a short-driven major upward spike whereupon the specs dump silver and down it crashes. However, down from $20 - $50 - $100??
I've been a metals analyst - 30 years on Wall Street - and was there, working for Bache when they traded silver for the Hunts during the 1970's silver bull market. This is deja vu all over again - the closest thing to a guaranteed bull market in a metal that I ever analysed.
Hang in there, its going to be really exciting. Just remember that like the 70's, it took a few years for the story to fully develop and reward, handsomely, very handsomely, the patient.
I've known for about 16 yrs we've been quietly unloading our gold to China in order to suppress the horrific imbalance of payments truth between what we import from their cheap labor produced goods market and what we export to them in the way of cotton, grain, etc.
This quiet and stealthy export of gold to China is just one example of an generally unreported and unacknowledged drain on our gold reserves.
Now factor in
A ) US "IMF payments" in competition w/the BIS which your earlier post today succintly laid the groundwork for,
B ) G-7's cooperative "where's the ( golden ) pea/walnut shell game?" called "gold mobilizations"
C ) the horrendous straits where Japan is paying .5% and made God only knows deal with the French and German goldmeisters if you please, to our US detriment, let alone the detriment of our gold reserves...
D ) the immediate 31% devaluation of our US$ when the EU becomes official reserve currency 1/1/99
....well, I think you get the picture.
Ft Knox Gold may be here and it may be just a hologram.
I'm afraid with our historical track record and Volker at the World Bank who was very instrumental in the initial set up and enactment of the recent gold mobilization,
well, cyberfriend, I believe and I'm leaning to the hologram side.
to put it another way...
The world has demonstrated an insatiable desire for only 2 commodities:
Gold and Oil
They both DON'T flow the same way as ANOTHER so succintly reminds us.
We have ( had ) the gold and we got the oil!
Now the gold is probably a hologram
and the gold is now in Europe's hands and in Asian Hands.
How long until they become "oily slicks/holograms?"
BTW, if you stop and think about it, Mr. Glass' Protection of Gold Act passed in Feb '32,...
the repeal that is just around the corner of said Act is not being spun as the "Authorization to Raid US Gold Reserves" if memory serves.
Mostly we are hearing spin about repeal of Glass Stegal as just the repeal of "interstate banking restrictions which are now archane and inappropriate in this age of the computers called the new millennium." Hmmmmmm
Today's comments from Canaccord!
On Friday of last week, gold staged a mostly sentiment-driven
short-covering rally, and as an old commodity-market saying goes, "in
the short term, sentiment is everything but in the longer term,
fundamentals hold the key." Virtually all of the bearish fundamentals
have been discounted by the market following its two-year decline. As
such, bear factors have recently failed to have a material negative
impact on gold prices, while seemingly nebulous bullish factors appear
to be having a positive influence. This has resulted in gold equities
rallying by 42%, from their January 1998 lows.
Nonetheless, given the extent of the rally to date, we reiterate our
March 30 recommendation to short-term "traders" to take profits near
technical resistance around the US$308-310/oz. area, basis spot. On
the other hand, we recommend that long-term "holders" of gold equities
maintain their positions since share prices are likely to rise above
current levels in 1998-1999.
Note that if the market pierces resistance at US$310/oz., buy stops
and speculative buying could temporarily drive gold prices US$5-10/oz.
higher. Nonetheless, we believe this would present an excellent
opportunity for producers, especially those outside North America
because of their weak currencies relative to the US and Canadian
dollars ) , to hedge future production. Gold prices in the
US$310-320/oz. area would also likely coincide with reduced physical
Bearish fundamentals continue to exist, and there is no indication
that this is likely to change soon. As a reminder, the most
significant bear points that have plagued gold include central bank
sales, uncertainty about the European Central Bank's policy on gold,
speculative selling, and a strong US dollar. All of these factors
continue to exist.
We believe that since the bullish fundamentals that currently exist
are not sufficiently positive to justify a sustained bull move, the
this rally is also likely to be temporary. The one important
difference between the current rally and the three others is that the
market appears to be in the midst of a basing pattern, and is poised
to rally if more bullish fundamentals arise.
The fundamentals that we believe could prompt a significant rally in
gold includes a substantial decline in the US dollar against most key
currencies, a clear announcement ( hopefully positive ) by the ECB on
its policy toward gold, possibly a global stock market crash, and/or
defaults on Japanese sovereign debt ( which we believe is highly
unlikely to occur ) .
The bull points that have been focused upon of late, which we
continue to believe are weak arguments for a sustained rally in gold,
are inflationary concerns linked to the rally in crude oil. Yeltsin's
firing of his entire cabinet, most of whom were later rehired. Bank
of Italy Governor Antonio Fazio's recent comments suggesting that the
ECB might hold 30% or more of its assets as gold. It is our
understanding that each ECB member will have an equally weighted vote
in determining the asset mix that backs the new euro. A proposal by
gold producers and other industry participants to mint a special
millennium coin to boost demand by 1,000 tons. This is just a
proposal, and it remains to be seen whether it will be implemented, or
if this amount of gold is purchased. Spillover buying from strength
in silver and platinum group metals ( PGMs ) . The fundamental factors
impacting silver and platinum have been quite different than those
affecting gold. We do not concur that silver prices should remain
elevated over the long term ( in the near term, silver could rally
above US$7/oz. ) since there are huge amounts of above ground
unofficial" inventories. Similarly, PGMs are higher largely because
of an absence of Russian exports to date in 1998. Of course, gold has
not been affected by this fundamental.
Since we don't believe the current gold rally is likely to be
sustained in the near-to-intermediate term, we continue to have a
conservative policy toward gold share recommendations. Among our BUY
recommendations are companies that we believe can weather a prolonged
depression of the gold price. These include Barrick Gold, Placer
Dome, Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold, Euro-Nevada, and Franco-Nevada.
Larry Strauss - Canaccord Research.
R. Farrell was interviewed on CNBC..he implied that the SE might
start tanking shortly..he said based on past history it was expected
for the SE Asian markets to rally for three months and time might be
up now and that might be the catalyst to bring the
market done..
gold still sleuthing..hidden under the Traveller's umbrella.. ( red
not yellow )

(Mon Apr 06 1998 23:20 - ID#201239)
OK, just for old times sake
Comex eligible gold stocks were unchanged today. The registered stocks dropped about 89,000 oz ( I didn't write down the number as Steve already reported it ) , after all, this gold was just parked in the Comex garage.

OK, comex silver stocks were down 373,029 oz to 87,405,970 oz.

Seems like I hear a drumbeat resonating on this topic when for sooo long there was only a distant daily beat.

Gee, maybe the next beat I hear is to buy gold and silver properties?

There has been far too much rancor on this site concerning both "which country has the best gold stocks" and "who was the best market timer over the last year". You all have your good points and your bad points. Quit acting like a pack of infighting hungry wolves and chase the prey, for they are weak and they are running.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 23:25 - ID#284255)
A bit of a change from the high of $317 yesterday
GCM8 just passed through $311 to $310.80

Volatility plus.

(Mon Apr 06 1998 23:29 - ID#284246)

Excellent post, Sharefin

(Mon Apr 06 1998 23:46 - ID#267298)
EB "Some chart.....go to late September"
That was then, Now is Now

That was shortly after ( July 3rd ) when Australia announced its Gold sale.

That was during a year that other CBs had announced Gold sales ( Without identifying the PURCHASERS ) .

That was when CB sales were all the rage ( The only CB sale to be
heard of this year was supposedly to other CB's ) .

That was when the introduction of the ECU was fifteen months in the future ( Now only nine months ) .

That was when speculation was ECB Gold Reserves would be in the
neighborhood of 5 to 10 percent ( Now believed to be as high as
25 to 30 percent ) .

That was when the DOW was much lower than it is today, every day it moves higher it seems to me that it gets closer to its top ( WHATEVER that may be and NOBODY knows, it could top tommorrow ) .

That was when GOLD was getting NOTHING but bad press, Now it is not as bad, possibly even getting the odd positive statement, ( I believe today some Brokerage firm even recommended GOLD and GOLD stocks ) .

That was when GOLD was substantially higher than it is today.

That was before the SE Asians really began to FEEL the pain of their
devalued currencies and the resultant disdain of the US and especially the US $.

That was ( I believe ) before Bill admitted under oath ( Jennifer Flowers ) that he was a LIAR. Also before his Zipper was allegedly unzipped a few more times.


(Mon Apr 06 1998 23:47 - ID#344308)

nikkei pushing against itself........