Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 00:00 - ID#317193)
If Another is for real he/she/they is not gone. No one purporting to share such "thoughts" for the higher purpose of truth and wisdom would ever bolt based on what one or even a few people posted. Who the heck would even care about what somebody you did not know posted. No, it's either total BS or will post again. Tom

(Mon Apr 13 1998 00:02 - ID#393224)
G'day again.
Yanks/rebs. We really love youse guys. Just ask the Canucks. They have been sleeping with an elephant for years, so you can understand their aversion to pancakes!!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 00:05 - ID#255151)
Federal Agents Zeroing In On Chicago Corruption

From the chilly Midwest-- Click on the story about Federal Agents zeroing in on Chicago Police.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 00:06 - ID#339212)
@ Aztec

Welcome home! Lots of rain here too!
I hope you read a post addressed to you on DROOY being the most leveraged gold company in the world. Can you imagine what its price will be if gold hits $500?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 00:11 - ID#342376)
@ Aurator, Andy Smith and All
Aurator, Thanks for the link to Andy Smith's Article. I think that if the Gold Bull is here, we should post that link at least twice a day. All the newcomers could read it. What do you think Andy?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 00:18 - ID#255284)
Andy Thmith ith dithing uth
Studio R
Having all his albums, I'd like to see Robert Earl Keen on that Bill.

I think you made a mistake with the date of Andy Smith's dithing, it was 10 March.

You & Haggis soften them up, I'll move under their legs 'n trip em

(Mon Apr 13 1998 00:21 - ID#288369)
Sorry for the spellings...I honestly can not see the screen right now...yea, Jose' Feliciano...please go to stand-by on purchasing Robben's c.d.'s...I need to find out if a certain one has been released yet ( old Witherspoon gig ) . I'll report back to the meanwhile, if you must ( curious cat syndrome ) "talk to your daughter", 1988, I believe that's the date. happiness

(Mon Apr 13 1998 00:23 - ID#255151)

G'day Nick. Are you reading Bill Buckler? My
take is that he is more bullish on Gold right now than he has been for many years. Any THOUGHTS?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 00:27 - ID#31868)

(Mon Apr 13 1998 00:30 - ID#288369)
@aurator....austin and armadillos.....
Cut 5 Good nightall...I be

(Mon Apr 13 1998 00:34 - ID#228128)
Ray and Aurator: I'm sorry that I didn't reply sooner but I was busy this
afternoon snarfing down some Lousiana crawfish and catfish and spent the early evening watching the Apollo miniseries on HBO. I highly recommend it.
Ray - I haven't gotten my Goldnewsletter yet. Not being personally acquainted with Jim Blanchard as you are mine comes via Cajun boatmen over the Achafalya Swamp from New Orleans. Takes a few days longer. Also, I know you were just joshin.

Aurator: Are you a professional ornithologist?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 00:36 - ID#210235)
Tolerant1 - re your wishes for us all on 23:07 last evening. It doesn't get any better than that. Prosit!

Studio.r - been enjoying playing the little horns on your web page. Guess you finally got that wave maker workin'. "The check is in the mail" and the other two great lies to ya!"

Nick, you're breakin my heart. We thought everyone loved being pushed around by bullies.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 00:38 - ID#255284)
Miles and miles of texas
Studio R
Got it. Did I ever tell you I was a DJ playing Border Radio, Texas, Oklahoma, TexMex, cajun, got me a big big collection of big big Country Stars ( pox on Nashville )

I found my Texas Citizenship papers in the move, just can't put my finger on it until I unpack!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 00:43 - ID#255284)
No, just ordinary, orn'ry and 'orny

(Mon Apr 13 1998 00:49 - ID#288260)
Japan down 178.57 Taiwan down 190.91

(Mon Apr 13 1998 00:55 - ID#288369)
@Aurator.....Yes I knew.....
You were a Diskman ( and so does the rest of the friggin' intelligent world...if they're worth knowin' ) and you're a friggin' genius ....and YES, I HATE NASHVILLE....AND THEY HATE ME....AND THAT'S THE WAY...IT'S GOTTA' BE.....LUNACY records C&W kicks their dumb ass. YEEEEEHaaaaaaaa!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 00:59 - ID#288369)
Thanks for the plug & your support...and keep those cards and letters a comin'! Muchas Garcias' Pard.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 00:59 - ID#31868)
EJ - a fractional response...
The imaginary easel upon which you ask me to paint, the future, hmmmmmm, one world I see approaching is keenly affixed in the eyes of the children I meet. Hope has no understanding of whether it is seeing or being seen;

Two weeks later, round noon on 7 August 1941, in North Calcutta, in an upstairs room of the house where he was born, Ranindranath Tagore expired.

The sun of the first day
Put the question
To the new manifestation of life-
Who are you?
There was no answer.
Years passed by.
The last sun of the last day
Uttered the question on the shore of the western sea,
In the hush of the evening-
Who are you!
No answer came.

The time must surely come for the laws to fit the time, but while the lorry is standing, youve got to open up your mind. It seems to be the fashion to say your right and say your wrong.
John Mayall  Room to Move

Even in translation, bereft of its melody, far away from Shantiniketan, it suggests that interpenetration of human life with the cosmic life of the world of which the poet spoke: the quintessence of Rabindranath Tagore.

The ocean of peace lies ahead of me.
Sail the boat, O pilot
You are my constant companion now.
Take me in your lap.
Along our journey to the infinite
The pole star alone will shine.
Giver of Freedom
Set me free.
May your forgiveness and compassion
Be my eternal resources for the journey 
May the Mortal ties fall away,
May the vast universe
Hold me in embrace,
And with and undaunted heart
May I come to know the great unknown.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 01:01 - ID#31868)
Of course it should be Rabindranath, if I had a brain it would die of loneliness...

(Mon Apr 13 1998 01:07 - ID#31868)
second to last line
And with an undaunted heart.

I am the scarecrow...if I only had a brain!?!?!?!?!?!?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 01:08 - ID#288369)
I've only read two books that I believe....The Holy Bible and Siddhartha. Now I lay me down to sleep......

(Mon Apr 13 1998 01:11 - ID#393224)
Stop losses.
Wee hour of the morning for most of you, so I am going to jump on my hobby horse again. As it is a lazy Easter Monday holiday here, the missus got stuck into me about the total mess in my home office. I mean, I know exactly where to find everything in the Mt. Everest sized piles of assorted papers and rubbish. So big-time clean out overdue.

And theeeeeeen, I came across my trading folder for 1996. Here is my portfolio for 21 April 96, along with 96 and current prices:

Share price 21 April 96 price 13 April 98

Allegiance .11 .096
Burdekin .235 .031
Centaur 1.60 .79
Coolgardie .185 .054
Elmina .085 .12
Giants Reef .225 .032
Gindalbie .35 .15
Jubilee .20 .57
Laverton .41 .08
Lynas .275 .065
Menzies .70 .19
Sipa .12 .071
Takoradi .135 .016
Titan .255 .195

Now back to stop losses. One look at the above should convince you of their value. I made a lot of $$ in 96. By early 97 I owned few of the above. Some of the above became ten baggers. Those made up for a lot of little losses. I'll say it again--LITTLE losses. Buy $20 000 worth of a share. Get out with a $2000-$3000 loss. Let it run and you can lose the lot!!! How many of you would like to buy the gold shares you bought 1-3 years ago at today's prices instead?

I am back in to many of the above. An example. Takoradi bought at .137 in 96. Sold on stop loss. Have now bought back at less than one tenth the price. Huge ground in Africa. Nobody wants 'em. Already up 60%. This will be a ten-bagger. Another one. Laverton gold. Gold mine in Indonesia plus huge ground. Noone wants gold and noone wants Indonesia. Bought back all of their forward sales last month--at the lows. In 96 I bought at .41 then sold on stop loss. Glad I did. Bought back at .055. Sold at .11. Bought again at .06. Sold at .09. Bought again at .07. Now at .08. This time I'll keep half on rise. I've been in-n-out more than bjC and I'm lovin' it. Ten bagger two years from now. There are hundreds of potential ten-baggers out there right now. If you don't use stop losses--you'll never find out. You'll be watching from the sidelines, making 'woe is me' goldbug posts on Kitco and saying-- Jeeeeeeeeeeeeeez, wish I had bought xxxx back in yyyy!!!

Stop losses do not apply to physical. It is your friend at whatever the price. Stop losses-- as the gal in the condom ad says : "If it's not on, it's not on".

(Mon Apr 13 1998 01:17 - ID#31868)
your words, a priviledge, for me, to be thought of kindly, by one of the likes of you.


(Mon Apr 13 1998 01:22 - ID#39828)
Andy, these sure are weird times.
Especially when your boss overlooks your reports and goes
straight to these pages.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 01:23 - ID#31868)
I apologize for the spelling error in your name.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 01:31 - ID#255304)
Yes I did read that. Afterward I had to sit down a while! 39 mil shares is not a lot when compared against a company like ABX. We are in for a lot of fun and money.
Summer 99 should be an interesting time for bankruptcies, losses and the like. Gold will play nicely into the mediator role as uncertainty rises. The Y2K issue is so uncertain. Who knows what the ceos of a lot these companies will do. GM at 500 mil to get up to speed. Anyone who thinks inflation isnt on its way has been watching toooo much cnbc. I think the metals move will carry into 2000.
Did you catch some of mozel's posts about the imf/bis situation. There does indeed appear to be a bipolar international banking system. Sooner or later a PUBLIC global medium will need to be established and to date the metal of choice has been gold. I'm staying.
What do you think is an out price for TVX. I went in at $3 & got out by luck at 4 1/16. I bought back less shares at 3.81 and have not decided on an out price. Any ideas? This stock sure gets a lot of relative volume considering its profitability.
Mon is HGMCY day! All hail ounces.
The $64,000 question is who is going to be the $ behind CAU's new mine. ???? I really like this company.


(Mon Apr 13 1998 01:34 - ID#393224)
G'day 500/thauracious
I have a great deal of respect for Bill Buckler and just love his charts. All them foreign currencies have been tellin' us what gold was gonnado long time ago. The US $$ will take a bit of time to learn that its days are numbered. Yen is already tellin' us that. So is gold.

thauracious--thope you geth your thongue fixthed thoon. BBL.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 02:02 - ID#240266)
I've been watching CAU for about eight months now and
bought in at $1 1/8 on wednesday.The chart seems to be indicating
a run to $2.00 in the next month;heavy accumulation has been
going on for at least a month.We'll see...hopefully.Please
don't take this as advice because after all I just sold RYO
What a genius!
Happy Trading!GO GOLD!

Quixotic 1
(Mon Apr 13 1998 02:15 - ID#48200)
US Gov't Office reports 250% inflation in 10 years !!!
US Gov't Office reports 250% inflation in 10 years !!! Stick that in your CPI, and light it up. OHHH, but don't inhale, it'll go away !!
I was channel surfing the other night, and happened onto C-SPAN. A Woman, whom was the Director of Librarians in Washington DC, was giving a plea for donations and support. During her testimony, She cited raising cost of 250%, over the last ten-year period ending 6-30-97.

She asked; "How can we be expected to maintain our quality of resources when we are fighting for a budget increase of 8%/yr, and these materials have increased 250%/10yrs ?"

Now we know where to send the CPI indexing crew. Off to sleep-e-time land, with a good book...

Gold for the good guysGMJ

(Mon Apr 13 1998 02:21 - ID#255284)
golden inventiveness

From those wonderful people who brought you the stamp vending machine, the safety pin, split atoms, jet boats and bungee jumping, now The Dirt Surfer. Oh boy, strap on a 4 wheel-drive skateboard, size of normal skateboard save for oversize wheels & Briggs & Stratton motor,capable of 40+ kph, handle held controller, this looks goooooood.

Bill Buckler
(Mon Apr 13 1998 02:23 - ID#256381)
Nick@C and Stop Losses
Nick@C Glad you like the charts, mate. The respect is mutual. You are one of the posters I most enjoy reading.

Speaking of reading, take a look at Nick's STOP LOSS post at 1:11. That's the whole secret right there. DON'T HOLD ONTO A LOSING PROPOSITION. Everybody takes losses on investments. The trick is to TAKE them. Never buy a gold stock without deciding at what price you have been proven wrong. If the stock hits that price - SELL IT.

You can always buy it back again. Or you might find something better. The point is simply if you hang onto a stock that's going down, three ver bad things happen.

You are losing money

You are losing opportunities in other investments

You are getting soured on investment in general.

Right on, Nick!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 02:29 - ID#255304)
CAU is a good buy right now.
When gold moves and one of the major players has a little more capital to work with the deal will be done. CAU expects to produce 88,000 ozs this year from it's existing mine. CAU's expected action on the new mine is 125,000 ozs/yr. Lets say they split this with joint venture firm their output will go to around 140,000 ozs/yr.
Last year the firm produced somewhere around 65,000 ozs and the stock was selling at $3-4 with gold averaged out at around 330-340. IMHO this stock will probably move to between $5-7. In at a $ is larceny. There are a lot of CAU fans on this forum just ask. Enjoy the run, we'll be talking about the developments as POG rises.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 02:32 - ID#252150)
Thoughts on America--A totally fuc*ed up Country
America blew it when that little ass*ole Calley got a slap on the wrist for his participation in the murder of 100s of innocent civilians in My Lai. From that point on America became a renegade Country. You lost your self respect & have been rotting ever since. America is possibly the most corrupt, immoral Country that ever existed. What goes around comes around
& retribution is coming your way soon.

Bill Buckler
(Mon Apr 13 1998 02:35 - ID#256381)
Bullish On Gold?
Auric ( 00:23 ) IMO, having a fairly intimate knowledge of the trials and tribulations of Gold over the past 25 years or so, all my charts are pointing in the same direction - UP

But if you read my newsletter or my website, you will know that I have left the same preface on my Gold commentary page unchanged since I started posting it over two years ago: 'GOLD IS THE POLITICAL METAL'.

There are some VERY important meetings coming up in Washington. I must admit to some surprise that Gold did not retreat further last week, although I know that it was down in intra-day trading almost every day.

As far as I am concerned, this latest move is entirely intact as long as Gold stays above the $Us 295 level. If it breaks through $310, and stays there, I will be as comfortable as I have been since 1976 not only have we seen the bottom, but that Gold is going to go up from there.

I'm not going to go into great detail on these upcoming ( G-7, IMF etc. ) Washington meetings. I dealt with them in detail in the latest issue of The Privateer. Suffice it to say here that the most significant development I have seen in quite some time is Rubin's PUBLIC approval of the Bank of Japan's intervention in the currency markets last Thursday.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 02:38 - ID#266105)

For golden inventiveness gimme Franklin's glass armonica.
So rare a gem I guess I'll have to settle for scuffling
along the barking beach sands barefoot.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 02:42 - ID#240266)
Thank you for the information.I like the building of assets
going on.In that it's reserves are deep the play will be sensitive
to the POG.
ergot...GO GOLD!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 02:52 - ID#255284)
Huh? don't know about Franklin's glass armonica. I'm guessing it's more use than a solar-powered torch/flashlight?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 02:53 - ID#266105)
@yen intervention

Mr. Buckler the Friday WS Journal had currency traders
estimating about a $1B intervention by BOJ and then a link
here rumored the largest intervention in Japanese history
at $10B, claiming it 5% of total reserves. Then CNBC currency
expert on Friday says not meaningful because only Japan money,
no action by any other central bank and their own money, only
on behalf of Jpanese request. You make any sense of it?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 03:01 - ID#255151)
Bill Buckler

Yes, the Willard Group is meeting April 16th, this Thursday. It is composed of the Central Bank Chairmen from 22 of the wealthiest nations. Alan Greenspan will be there. Some have compared its importance to Bretton Woods. It's something to watch, eh?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 03:05 - ID#266105)

(Mon Apr 13 1998 03:08 - ID#252150)
The easiest money made this year will be by selling every rally of the JY
Soros & the hedge funds will do to the JY what they did to the British Pound.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 03:14 - ID#393224)
Anyone own gold out there??
June gold +2.20 to 312.40

Bill Buckler--thanks for your comments, mate. I'm actually gonna get off my assets and subscribe.

Where is the Aotearoan??

(Mon Apr 13 1998 03:18 - ID#255284)
I'm watching the "harvest" moon rise over the porch which is now my workspace. gotta carve some beast of the field...

(Mon Apr 13 1998 03:19 - ID#393224)
Check it out yourself.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 03:26 - ID#393224)
Waxing lyrical
'Victoria Bitter" + "Old dogs, children and watermelon wine"
Great combination. Oh oh, here comes 'I Fall to pieces" - great lady.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 03:26 - ID#255151)
Hillary Involved in Chicago Scandal?

The White House is going to attack this story tooth and nail.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 03:34 - ID#266105)

Far from being the sleaze operators of the global
monetary marketplace, Newsweek magazine improbably suggested
in August 1993 that foreign exchange dealers eventually might
emerge as economic policy heroes:

'The five day crisis highlights two emerging realities.
One is that control over the world's financial markets has
shifted from central banks to private institutions. The
other represents a startling role reversal. Currency traders
and speculators, despite their bad rep, have become a force
for stable growth. Europe's central banks and monetary
"policy planners," supposed bulwarks of economic order,
actually impede it.'

--Michael Meyer and Anne Underwood
"What Currency Crisis?"
Newsweek, August 16, 1993, p. 65

Like, maybe it's a dirty job but someone's
gotta keep'm honest.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 03:37 - ID#266105)

Nick@C--would that be the Tracy Nelson rendition of 'Pieces'.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 03:49 - ID#393224)
No mate. Patsy Cline.
Now into Dire Straits, up loud, ala Ted.

Everyone has been dissing the XAU around here ( all the experts ) and while I don't trade it, I have looked at the charts and come to the opposite ( UP ) conclusion, so am preparing to A ) eat heap-big humble pie next week or B ) tell the experts to stick their stochastics and Elliots where the sun don't shine. Stay tuned to this channel.

Gotta go 'Twist by the pool'--see ya.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 04:02 - ID#340302)
@GOLD SHORTS...thank you for the various tributes in my absence...
First, of course, we have Andy Smith, first quoting verbatim then mocking my comments ( re: Kitcoites' fundamentally bearish attitudes toward gold ) as they were lifted from my Kitco Forum Barometer which I often post as part of "F*'s Gold Market Evaluation."

Then, my buddy, Glenn, transforming my "I DON'T CARE, I'M BUYING MORE" chant into an equivalent gold shorter's chant.

What does it mean?

Esssentially, it means that goldbugs are beginning to win the war of perception. They are becoming increasingly proactive and less reactive.
They are taking the fight to the antagonists instead of simply responding to the attacks.

As a result, gold shorts are reacting, often in sarcastic, ad hominem, irrational fashion. Why? Because they simply are not used to being on the defensive and so, unable to logically defend themselves, they resort to adolescent emotional outbursts instead of compelling rational argumentation. They now realize that the usual proactive assaults against gold ( e.g. central bank gold sales ) are becoming ineffective. Goldbugs have de-mystified these assaults under the scrutiny of logicical analysis...they understand them and realize these incestuous sales do not undermine the value of fact, they raise it!!

Unfortunately, for gold shorters, they have been operating on automatic pilot for so long with their banal cries of "CENTRAL BANKS ARE SELLING! CENTRAL BANKS ARE SELLING!" that one wonders whether or not they have any other ammunition against the value of gold.

Goldbugs have a better understanding of the gold shorts' methodology in attempting to frighten them. So, with this recent epiphany, the goldbugs are starting to fight fire with fire, using the same gold short tactics against gold shorts themselves. The main tactic: Focus on proactivity, de-focus on reactivity.

Again, I must say "thank you" to all the gold shorts who find my analyses so compelling that they are compelled to address them directly. It is always nice to strike chords of truth.

The fundamental Truth: gold and silver are both absurdly undervalued and we will most likely see a "panic buy" in the next little while reverberate through these markets.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 04:15 - ID#340302)
@ALL...discussions during holiday dinner re: the Price of Gold.
...probably, the most encouraging discovery I made at the holiday dinner we attended is this: the Wall Street Bull complacency really hangs on a mere thread. In discussions with several "businessmen," I politely listened to them extoll their various Dow-heavy investment portfolios in the hackneyed, brain-dead catch phrases that they have absorbed from CNBC, Wall Street, and their stockbrokers.

Then, rather than sermonize or preach a gold-bug line, I simply asked a variety of questions. Just questions...essentially no pontification whatsoever.

Obviously, the questions I raised are very rarely ever imagined or debated by these various gentlemen. Yet, these questions obviously created much internal dissonance in the minds of these various businessmen...a good deal of palpable anguish.

I can safely say that, by the end of the evening, these particular gentlemen were chafing at the bit to call up their brokers. Their message: sell my DOW stocks and buy precious metals ASAP!!



(Mon Apr 13 1998 04:20 - ID#256326)
Re your 0018: the date of Andy's piece says 10 March but the time stamp on the document is 9 April. But assuming that it really WAS from March, it's quite interesting that the comments he based his critical remarks upon were repeated here a month later. It brings up interesting possibilities regarding the identity/handles of various posters at Kitco.
Or have I simply caught the prevailing conspiracy virus......;- ) ) ) things are not always what they seem in cyberland.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 04:23 - ID#256326)

(Mon Apr 13 1998 04:35 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Thought I would go ahead and repost my current market thoughts from Thursday after the close:

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:12
Eldorado ( @the scene ) ID#213265:
Copyright  1998 Eldorado/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Man, that 6.20 number on the May silver was one of the prettiest things
I've ever seen. Just doesn't seem to happen often enough with silver.
Came right down to the trend line formed from the tops from Feb and the
top formed in late Mar. Then she sprang right back up! Just don't let it
crash it again! As it stands right now, I'd have to say UP! Next stop
near 7.20 me thinks, with a couple minor areas in between.
If somehow we see gold down a few bucks at/near the open, buy the hell
out of it! I'm beginning to wonder though. Must be close to something
when I begin to wonder.
Spoos at some fairly heavy resistance. Still hasn't fully accomplished a
50% retracement back up though. But the days not done. Near 1126 should
do it, IF it should even get there.
Thought I'd buy some wheat at the close today. went skinny dippin' in
the corn and beans yesterday.
Cocoa and sugar both should now be ready for a long position next
trading day. I'm lookin' for lower lows than what cocoa did today and
what sugar did yesterday.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:32
Eldorado ( @the scene ) ID#213265:
One final note on the May silver: IF it can't make it over 6.43, fairly
early on I would think, be a bit 'leery' of it! That would signify a
general lack of any real strenth at this point, given todays movements.
Simply watch its behavior! Let us also not forget 'Holiday', and holiday
weekend. Typically a good time in ALL the markets for all appearances to
be deceiving.

Further comments: The 1126 area on the Spoos still stands, even though the trading day ended. THEN we see how it goes! I'll be keeping stops in close on the grains, and the cocoa and sugar should I also go long in them also.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 04:36 - ID#340302)
Final comments of the night: prepare for Wall Street Assault...
...on the XAU.

As many of you are probably aware, there has been a tremendous amount of XAU option activity over the last few weeks. Naturally, a good deal of the call writing has been done on behalf of Wall Street institutions and I imagine many of the calls are "naked."

I don't imagine many of these institutions ever expected the kind of strength exhibited by the XAU over the last several weeks. Most likely, they are both shocked and panicked by it.

So, naturally, it was not surprising to discover some Wall Street institutions step forward and lower their ratings on several gold producers...and I would not be surprised to see them continue this strategy for the next few days of this particular options expiration week.

These ratings reductions are completely bogus and classic examples of institutional manipulation. It never ceases to amaze me how many normally logical gold investors suddenly become fearful, placing credence in these "warnings" designed solely to protect call option writers.

Often, there is a second aim in these institutional warnings: heavy re-accumulation at much lower prices by the very same institutions that issue the warnings.

Naturally, this second aim is most frequently utilized in advance of an impending takeover bid. Certainly, it was used very skillfully in the takeover of Hemlo by Battle Mountain Gold. Now, I suspect the same strategy may be utilized once again.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 04:42 - ID#228283)
@F* and Auric...

First, we must LOVE the shorts not hate them !!! Without them, there would be no upcoming rally. HistAuric, I might add!
Auric... the Chi cops have been crooked ever since I can remember and I was born there...everyone has to be born somewhere...Problem is ...No-one cares...Go Gold !!!

John Disney__A
(Mon Apr 13 1998 04:42 - ID#24135)
Sheer Luck Holmes speaks ...

Elimentary my dear Kitco ..
Farfel IS Andy Smith .. I've suspected this for some time.
AND YOU SALTY are allan Greasepan's brother who just HAPPENS
to live in NZ.
Not certain who Vronsky is but Im sure he's not himself lately.
More revelations will follow after I've had a few drinks.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 04:45 - ID#256326)
the magical kingdom of Disney
( 8^ )

(Mon Apr 13 1998 04:48 - ID#228283)
June Au on COMEX 312.20

John Disney__A
(Mon Apr 13 1998 04:52 - ID#24135)
To anyone with time to waste
Andy "Smith"'s real name IS Andrew Farfelstilskin
Research always pays off.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 04:53 - ID#266105)
@Dark Side of the Moon 1,100 weeks on the Billboard Charts, a record

Wizard of Oz with Dark Side of the Moon

Pink Floyd fans have discovered a new way of watching the MGM movie
classic, The Wizard of Oz. Supposedly, if you play the movie and use Pink
Floyd's album Dark Side of the Moon as the soundtrack, eerie things happen.
For example, loud chimes and bells ring when the wicked witch appears on
screen riding her bicycle. Another unusual tidbit is that the first side of the vinyl
album is exactly as long as the black-and-white portion of the film. The
cash-register noise in the song Money is heard right as the film turns to color.
Many of the characters in the film lip-synch some of the words in the actual songs
on the Pink Floyd album. Be sure to try this experiment with a group of friends;
you don't want to be alone when you hear the heartbeat of the Tin Man from the


Clearly, the human wont and ability to seek/see/find patterns
where there are none knows no bounds, the human face the most powerful,
weather on Mars, a window reflection of the Mary, or market analyses.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 04:55 - ID#39828)
the stench is getting stronger
Conflicting stories seem to be the order of the day.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 04:57 - ID#252391)
Shame on you Farel
Shame on you Farel for scaring all those DOW bulls; they just want to keep charging and it's good for AMERICA to have stocks up. Besides, if any of them do end up calling their broker after the wine has worn off, there will be less gold shares for us to buy.

Seriously, I suspect the bull case will weaken alot faster than most people think. And once the yuppies start to see their big gains disappear they'll be running for the hills.

One thing I remeber though about the crash of '29 is that it didn't just start down with a crash one day. In fact the market was rolling over in August and September and then fell - sort a like Soybeans do when the crop starts coming in.

I think we are about ready to enter the roll over period when buying on the dips will occur but fades into the close will be ever more common. Interest rates will fall as money moves into Treasuries, lowering the carrying cost of gold further - an inmaterial fact for Silver Platinum and Palladium where demand is already exhibiting itself.

I'll be very surprised if we close April with lower prices than exist today - expect that is for the DOW.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 05:02 - ID#393224)
Guitars and golden memories. Please read to the end. I bare my soul.
Enjoyed the guitar discussion earlier on. As I am now listening to Mark Knopfler ( Dire Straits ) , I would be highly insulted if he were not included in the guitar hall of fame, along with my other two favourites, Eric Clapton and Jimi Hendrix. Wanna hear a guitar scream!!!! Get Hendrix to play the Star Spangled Banner ( teeth and all ) and the 'rocket's red glare' will take on new meaning.

And while I'm at it. When I was a teenager I lived in Anaheim, California ( Father was a peripatetic pilot--and i got to see the werld ( sic ) . Worked in Disneyland at the age of 17 ( Aunt Jemima's Kitchen ) .Walt Disney got in line and bought some of my pancakes.Had a chat with him--was a brash 17 y.o. Asked me how I made the pancake with the ears. Showed him. Was so nervous, I broke an ear--he laughed!! Treasured memory. His minders took him away. Probably killed him ( pancakes--not chat--though Kitcoites would disagree ) --though it took some time. Met brother Roy--nice man, and heard Louis Armstrong on several occasions ( sneak off on my breaks ) , met Lucille Ball--would you believe she was sitting all alone about 50 feet from where I worked, having a drink--wonderful lady--and was that hair RED!!!--but I digress-- I went to a little pub one night with a tall skinny brunette in my 1955 Oldsmobile ( pedal on the floor to make the antenna go up--haven't seen it since ) which I bought for $10 worth of "old" coins--another story, flashed my fake I.D., and listened to an unknown singer/guitar player. Blind he was. Chunky Mexican chick led him out and sat him down. He played and sang. Complete unknown. Made that guitar sing. One song he showed off. Took one hand off the guitar and took a drink without a pause in the guitar. Was fingering and strumming with one hand. Magician with the geeeetar!!Jose Feliciano before he was Jose Feliciano!! Next time I saw him was in Las Vegas. Still love him and the woman I married that day, 30 years ago.

I have lived a golden life and I hope for @40 more years of gold to see me ( and my loved ones ) through. My 14 y.o. daughter will inherit the riches of a wasted world. I just hope I can prepare her for what is to come. I have no higher calling in life. Play on Mark.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 05:03 - ID#39828)
try this/Japans finance minister wont attend G7

Monday 13 April, 1998 ( 5:04pm AEST )

Japan's central bank has predicted a bleak future for the
nation's economic health, warning that shrinking business
investment is putting new pressure on an already stagnant

In its monthly report, the Bank of Japan says industrial
production is falling along with private spending and public
sector investment, indicating a recession is looming.

It says even exports, hit hard by the Asian economic crisis,
will bring little joy.

Japan's current account surplus in February jumped
97-percent from a year earlier to nearly 13-billion dollars.

The finance ministry says the trade surplus gained 68-percent
with exports rising more than two-percent and imports
dropping 17-percent.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 05:16 - ID#255151)
Trouble In Paradise?

Hedgehog--I hadn't heard of the April 15th G7 meeting. Is that a separate event from the Willard Group meeting on April 16th? Japan won't attend, eh?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 05:17 - ID#330175)
June GOLD up 2.00 @ 312.20
as I awake ( ? ) to a 'white-winterland'.....

(Mon Apr 13 1998 05:25 - ID#330175)
great post bro....Vegas father was a pilot too.....

(Mon Apr 13 1998 05:30 - ID#39828)
Series of meetings starting Tuesday. IMF ,World Bank and Willard
I would say. If Japans MOF pulls the pin on one to stay at home
wouldnt they pull the pin the lot. Are they playing footsies.
These meetings held to mull over Asia crisis and ramifications
and I would of thought it vital that Japan attend.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Mon Apr 13 1998 05:41 - ID#347196)
Kitco 24 Hr Gold
Kitco chart is a "Flatliner" this am. Any suggestions for current spot POG appreciated. TIA

PS I go to pieces when I hear Patsy!!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 05:42 - ID#266105)
@Japanese currency intervention

The U.S. government gave Japan rhetorical support for
its campaign to shore up the sagging yen.

But U.S. officials didn't join Tokyo in intervening
in currency markets

( ... )

In its first foray into currency markets since December,
the Bank of Japan yesterday sold about a billion dollars
for yen in New York, hoping to stem the Japanese currency's
recent plunge to six-year lows against the dollar.

( ... )

U.S. officials stressed, however, that Mr. Rubin's
comments weren't intended to reflect any change in American
views on exchange rates. And the U.S. government didn't sell
any of its own dollars yesterday. Mr. Rubin has been unusually
cautious about intervening in currency markets, and the U.S.
hasn't done so for more than two years.

( ... )

-- extracted from WSJ article 4/10/98;A7

So that says, however accurate or verifiable,
that Japan spent $1B intervening last week, the
intervention taking place in the New York markets
on behalf of the Japanese at their request with
no participition by the United States or U.S. dollars.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 05:44 - ID#393224)
G'day Ted.
Gonna miss you bro. Can't live without my Swans Island weather reports!!Ever heard of laptops, mate. Spend some of them ABX'ers on communication with yer mates and save on the nails. Better yet, get a subscription to Andy Smith and use the bullshit to glue yer house together. Mois is gonna be tres pissed off if you don't stay on Kitco, mate!!!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 05:49 - ID#330175)
Nick@C..................and A laptop
who do ya think I am---Billl Gates?? a very one-dimensional ( obsessed,eh ) human ( ? ) and don't know if I can juggle --sawing---cursing----nailing---swearin with laptops ( do they storee well in tents? ) ......

(Mon Apr 13 1998 05:52 - ID#330175)
close as I can get to a Swans Island weather report

(Mon Apr 13 1998 05:58 - ID#255151)

If ya got a phone and a TV, you can access Kitco with a Webtv. Only $99 now. $20 a month fee for unlimited usage. I believe it would work off a cellular phone also.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 06:00 - ID#255151)

If ya got a phone and a TV, you can access
Kitco with a Webtv. Only $99 now. $20 a month fee for unlimited usage. I believe it would
work off a cellular phone also.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 06:04 - ID#330175)
Auric......TV & phone?-----I'll be livin in a tent like----------------

(Mon Apr 13 1998 06:09 - ID#393224)
Ted--Victoria Bitter speaking!!!
If I name a silver wannabee mining company, and you buy some shares, and they double, or treble or quadruple in the next six months--will you buy a laptop and satellite or whatever connection and keep giving me the weather reports???? All paid for. Free!! HUGE DEPOSIT!!!! Many times bigger than Francisco Gold Corp deposit ( 100 km away ) . Francisco gold cap is $CN500 million for 3 million ounce resource. This company is capped at A$$$$14 million. How does that sound mate?? Cause I got a little Aussie miner with 20 000 000 oz of silver in Mexico that noone knows about. I ain't tellin' right now cause I'm beggin', borrowin' and steelin' more $$$ to buy more afore all youse guys find out who they are. We can be squillionaires together. E-mail me. We'll tell the 'others' later!!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 06:20 - ID#393224)
20 000 000 oz ag +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 06:21 - ID#330175)
Nick@C.................Ginseng speaking
will e-mail ya later in the day,yes

(Mon Apr 13 1998 06:24 - ID#39971)
For Andrew *F On The Dark Side

Us, and them

And after all we're only ordinary men

Me, and you

God only knows it's not what we would choose to do

Forward he cried from the rear

and the front rank died

And the General sat, and the lines on the map

moved from side to side

Black and blue

And who knows which is which and who is who

Up and Down

And in the end it's only round and round and round

Haven't you heard it's a battle of words

the post bearer cried

Listen son, said the man with the gun

There's room for you inside

Down and Out

It can't be helped but there's a lot of it about

With, without

And who'll deny that's what the fighting's all abouut

Get out of the way, it's a busy day

and I've got things on my mind

For the want of the price of tea and a slice

The old man died

Yes,and here we have Another teacher to the gold shorts to be........

OK..........and here we have Ted's new lookout point on the island....

Thats about it.

Oh ya,I think LGB ( Local Gold Basher ) is the REAL Andy in drag.....

G'Night From Me..Good Morning To You...........

(Mon Apr 13 1998 06:27 - ID#240170)
investments in mines
SWC has gone up quite a lot and as a small investor it is quite expensive for me. Would PDG and/or PAASAD be good substitutes to invest in?

Secondly, can anyone explain why PDLCF is not moving despite the jumps in the price of paladium?

Thank you

(Mon Apr 13 1998 06:28 - ID#330175)
June Gold......................................
UP 2.20 @ 312.40

(Mon Apr 13 1998 06:34 - ID#320376)
Another high-level but interesting Y2K article

(Mon Apr 13 1998 06:39 - ID#393224)
May pork bellies + 4.6%
Ted--I'm also nibbling on some auraginseng!! Kiwis have got a LOT TO ANSWER FOR!! Now--how does XAU 100 sound???

(Mon Apr 13 1998 06:41 - ID#35767)
Kitco can not survive til fall w/o Ted. We've already lost tortfeasor and Speed ( almost ) and George S. Cole.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 06:56 - ID#286199)
Bank Merger Mania
From the WSJ:

BANKAMERICA AGREED to merge with NationsBank in a deal valued at $60 billion or more, according to people familiar with the situation. The
new entity would be the biggest U.S. bank, with $570 billion in assets, and the closest thing yet to a national bank, spanning 24 states from
coast to coast.

Banc One agreed to merge with First Chicago in a stock swap valued at about $30 billion. The deal creates a Midwestern powerhouse and the No. 2 bank credit-card company. The surprising pair of mergers is likely to usher in more banking consolidation.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 06:57 - ID#35767)
We have also lost Oldman and WW, you can not be next. Use a lap top from Swan's Island. Yer gonna live in a tent my A! Are ya really movin' or are ya justy ready to switch identities to say George S. Cole?

Mike Sheller
(Mon Apr 13 1998 07:01 - ID#347447)
I vote we take up a Kitco emergency fund to finance farfel's dinners with as many Dow-laden businessfolk and investors as possible. By dessert, the cascade of selling will have begun as a dribble, and after several weeks of charming dinners, asking "innocent" questions, and, as Kitcoites can do SO uncannily, playing dumb, brother farfel will have sent the major averages reeling, gold soaring, and lit our hearts afire.

Mike Sheller
(Mon Apr 13 1998 07:03 - ID#347447)
We have lost WW...and what's the BAD news????

Bully Beef
(Mon Apr 13 1998 07:04 - ID#259282)
One day in the pasture there was a gold bull and a wall street bull...
They come up over a hill and see a herd of cows. The Wall street bull says " Lets run down there and screw one of those cows!" and the gold bull says " No... lets walk down and screw them all!"

(Mon Apr 13 1998 07:14 - ID#407135)
spot price for Mtn Bear
For spot gold try Http://

(Mon Apr 13 1998 07:16 - ID#238295)
Gold up nicely despite upcoming high-level economic meetings. Very unusual and very bullish.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 07:17 - ID#407135)
How about

(Mon Apr 13 1998 07:18 - ID#411331)
@*F and ALL: Thank you Shorts for selling gold down into the underworld so I can buy more.
Thank you Shorts for selling silver down to a price level that I have not seen since I was in highschool 35 years ago. Thank you Shorts for continuing your selling so I can accumulate more and the present overwhelming shortage in pm's is worsened. The price of pm's can be likened to a basketball pushed down by the manipulators into a liquid that constantly increases in density as the world currancy markets
deteriorate. Eventually our ball will soar!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 07:18 - ID#286199)
WSJ: "Nothin but blue skys can I see....
Remaining Bears Appear To Be Moving Toward Bulls


With the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 9000 for the first time last week, the bull market is finally winning over some of the last bearish holdouts. Wall Street strategists, individual investors and investment advisers are all registering their greatest optimism on stocks in years. And that could spell trouble.

Traditionally, market sentiment is seen as a contrarian indicator. Markets rise, the theory goes, as bears become bulls and put money into the market. The market peaks when there are no bears left and everyone is
invested. "There is nothing in [the] past record to justify more or less enthusiasm based on crossing 9000," says Robert Farrell, senior investment adviser at Merrill Lynch. "What is consistent is that millennium crossings have been accompanied by near-peak bullish sentiment." That was the case when the Dow Jones Industrial Average passed both 7000 and 8000 last year. The market struggled to hold near those levels for some time after attaining them.

The signs of rising optimism include not just bullish sentiment readings but also low levels of mutual-fund cash reserves, and rising performance expectations by individuals. Some even call last week's megamerger announcement of Citicorp and Travelers Group a sign of speculative frenzy on the theory that financial companies are among the last to join a bull market. Against that is the troubling signal of higher selling by corporate insiders.

Mr. Farrell doesn't see an imminent serious top, but warns: "It is not a time for complacency... .The bullish chorus is rising despite the fact price/earnings ratios are rising to historically extreme levels while
earnings prospects are deteriorating."
The rally that has lifted the Dow industrials 13.7% this year so far, to
8994.86 Thursday, and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index 14.5%, hasn't brought about just a preponderance of bulls but an even more striking scarcity of bears. ( The market was closed Friday ahead of Easter. )

In its weekly survey, Investors Intelligence has found that the bearish portion of advisory newsletters has fallen below 25% in the past two weeks, hitting a six-year low. "It's hard to stay bearish when the
market goes up all the time," says Michael Burke, editor of Investors Intelligence in New Rochelle, N.Y. Meanwhile, the bullish percentage is 52.4%, close to a one-year high. ( Those who are not bulls or bears are essentially bullish but looking for a market correction. )

To be sure, sentiment indicators are usually used to time short-term moves in the market, and they, like many other indicators, have given their share of false signals. Some of the recent increased optimism may
be less relevant for market timing and more indicative of longer-term shifts. For example, Wall Street strategists, whose caution rose steadily along with the market from January 1996 until October 1997's correction, have rapidly turned more bullish since. Their average recommended equity allocation in a balanced portfolio rose to a four-year high of 54.5% in March, according to a survey conducted by Richard Bernstein, head of
quantitative research at Merrill Lynch, from 48.1% in September.

Mr. Bernstein considers that negative for stocks, but not unduly so. Indeed, gurus aren't so much turning more bullish, as easing their entrenched bearishness.

"Over the 13 years of data that we have, the average equity allocation is only 53.4%," says Mr. Bernstein, with the remainder in bonds or cash. But he notes that most survey participants consider a 60% stock allocation to be about neutral. "So through time, Wall Street is underweighted on equities. There's all this talk of the 'wall of worry': There it is. The people who have the greatest incentive to sell equities are habitually bearish." When Salomon Smith Barney raised its recommended allocation to 60% from 50% two weeks ago, it "wasn't a short-term call on the market, it was recognition that trying to time corrections is going to be very tough," says John Manley, co-investment strategist at the firm. He made the change after taking charge of allocation earlier this year. In
January, the firm had lowered its equity allocation to 50% from 55% on the view that bond yields wouldn't fall much and earnings estimates would drop. Says Mr. Manley, "Both calls were right on the money, and the market still went up. The market-timing move was trying to raise a little cash at the beginning of the year. This is the antimarket-timing move."

Mr. Manley says people focus on three things when trying to forecast the market: valuation, earnings momentum and interest rates. The first two have been poor timing devices, he says. "In the last four years, the [market's] price to sales ratio has doubled. The trouble is, the last time it doubled was 1954 to 1958 and the peak in the market wasn't until 1966. The last time the market's valuation was cut in half was from 1966 to the beginning of 1974. If you bought it then because it was cheap at half the price, you bought in front of the worst calendar year in the second half of the century." Furthermore, in 19 of the stock market's 40
best quarters since 1950, earnings growth was negative, he says.

That leaves interest rates, which historically are the best market indicator, he says. In the past 30 years the kind of drop in long bond-yields seen in the past few months has always preceded a positive 12
months in the S&P 500, he says. If the market does gain from here, it would add an unprecedented fourth year to three extraordinary, 20%-plus years for investors. And individuals are coming to expect that: A survey of 1,002 average investors by PaineWebber and Gallup Organization
released last week found their standards for satisfactory performance have risen markedly in the last year.

That isn't shared by professionals. A separate poll of 60 international financial institutions managing more than $3.2 trillion in assets by KPMG Investment Consulting Group found on average they expect large-capitalization stocks to return only 6% this year, up slightly from their 5.7% forecast a year ago but down from 8.6% in 1996.

"People who have been in the business over a period of time have seen these heady, euphoric periods before," says Wayne Nordberg, a partner at fund manager Lord, Abbett & Co., explaining the lingering skepticism of big money managers. He compares the current environment to 1966, when the Dow Jones industrials almost went through 1000 for the first time. "Similar to now, there didn't seem to be anything that could go wrong. Low interest rates, lower inflation than today, solid growth, high
productivity. But the economy did overheat as we began to escalate the Vietnam War and we had a sharp correction in 1966," he says.
Scott Black, president of fund manager Delphi Management, knows of two fellow managers for one pension client who have sharply raised cash levels in the past year, although to their regret so far. With Internet search firm Yahoo! closing Thursday at 309 times expected 1998 earnings, Mr. Black says, "this is the most speculative bull market we've seen since 1973."

Another important group is also turning thumbs down on stocks: "insiders," such as corporate officers. In the past five weeks, the ratio of inside sales transactions to inside purchases has climbed to 3.1 to 1, compared with an average ratio this decade of 1.8:1, says Robert Gabele, president of CDA/Investnet, which tracks insider transactions. It last topped 3:1 in August, around 1997's market peak, and returned to 2:1 only during January's dip, he says. "Insiders are not running with the bulls,"
says Mr. Gabele. He cautioned against drawing too strong a conclusion: "This [selling] could go on for a while" without the market dropping sharply. David Coleman, investment manager for Watershed Investments, a Washington firm that invests according to insider trading, added, "I don't believe they're signaling the market is due for a correction
because while selling has increased, buying has held relatively steady."

(Mon Apr 13 1998 07:28 - ID#26793)
Only bankers can start out with two banks worth $570 billion, per your post, combine them and have the new value be worth $60 billion. Those guys should get busy with the Dow.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 07:30 - ID#36965)
You haven't lost Tortfeasor
You haven't lost Tortfeasor. He has been the victim of 70 hour weeks for the past couple of months. After the 15th he will be back with a joke or two and some inane comments about the gold market.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 07:30 - ID#289357)
ALL @ DROOY merger with Marrak Gold

Just got an email from a friend, asking my thoughts about a merger between Marrak Gold and Durban Roodeport Deep.

This isn't on my radar screen - does anyone out there know of such a merger, and the possible impact?


(Mon Apr 13 1998 07:37 - ID#286199)
What's a zero or two between friends? Blame the WSJ typesetter.

Bloomberg gold down .70 to 307.75
Silver down .01 to 6.39

RJ is AWOL, send out the MPs.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 07:37 - ID#26793)
BOJ accused of padding the payroll with phantom employees. Cost? 50 billion yen.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 07:41 - ID#248180)
Nick@C @ Jose Feliciano - Huntington Beach
Nick if I remember correctly the place was called the Bear at Huntington Beach. Saw the same Mexican lady escort the chubby blind kid on with his 12 string. Boy could he play! Back then when folk and folk rock were popular, we saw another great act/duet; Ian & Sylvia from Canada and Gordon Lightfoot all cut there teeth in those little beer/wine cafes in the Beach area. Ahhh the 60's ~~~~~~~~

(Mon Apr 13 1998 07:42 - ID#320376)
Waiting for Tortfeasor...
Or someone like him. Enjoyed Torfeasor's humor so much that we moved our family 1833 miles to be closer...

So far, we love Albuquerque.

Also, the POG has been doing better since the relocation.

Of course, in the virtual village of the net we are only a few nanoseconds apart. That's why they call it the World Wide Wait.

Latest rumor: Due to a Y2K bug Clinton will be in office until 2003. Any support for that?

$312/oz sure beats $278/oz.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 07:45 - ID#22157)
I read with interest the ongoing exchange of recipes how to make homebrew, God, didn't know it was that complicated. I have been brewing my own beer since 12 years here in Australia, the reason being that I believe that beer is totally overpriced/taxed here. I use a commercial product made by the Coopers Brewery, it's very simple, you buy the kit, which includes a tin plus dry yeast, add water, mix in the yeast and sugar according to the instructions and let it brew for a few days using an airlock or a teatowel to cover the container. After this you bottle it using 750ml bottles. Each bottle gets a teaspoon of sugar to start secondary fermentation which facilitates carbonation. The kit cost about $11 Australian and yields 30 750ml bottles ( whatever this is in english/imperial/US ounces, gallons etc, I think it is about 1 1/2 pints ) , cost per bottle about 30 to 40 cents, compared with a bottle shop price of well over two Dollars. Well, this beer might not match the brew you experts produce, however it is done relatively quickly and produces a delicious GOLDEN Lager or Ale, or a darker Bitter, which my friends really love ( well, they won't be offered anything else ) , leaving me enough time to read Kitco and take care of my gold related investments. By the way, thank you Bart for this wonderful discussion group.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 07:56 - ID#251268)
1 more homebrew post before the action starts,I concur making beer is easy,I prefer to buy bulk hops and malt and save the yeast from each
batch cheaper yet,but I do pay atention to sainitizing everything,thats the big key.I made some dark holiday beer this year with orange peels
and cinnimon,was good,next I'd likee to try some mead.Okay enough said about that its almost time to earn our beer~~~GO GOLD !!!

Mike Sheller
(Mon Apr 13 1998 08:33 - ID#347447)
Ian and Sylvia! Jose Feliciano! Man, you're makin' me feel old.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 08:44 - ID#342282)
JTF re Quakes
I'll be gone to Charleston till Thur. Will work on my quake info. See you when I get back

(Mon Apr 13 1998 09:12 - ID#253418)
guess quotes are dead
Is anything alive - guess the quotes are dead. Anybody know where anything is.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 09:17 - ID#402148)
is up. June gold at 312.50. May silver 6.39.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 09:17 - ID#342282)
Haggis re questions
If you come up with anything, post. Got to go out of town till Thurs. I'll catch it when I come. Thanx, Charlie

(Mon Apr 13 1998 09:18 - ID#251268)
everything opened kinda flat June gold 312.40 silver down 2 cents
bonds downhard maybe everyone is waiting for stocks to open?
I know what you mean been up for a couple hours expecting aaction?
maybe eveerybody is taking today off too,GO GOLD!!!!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 09:20 - ID#251268)
June Gold
312.90~~~~~~~~~~up up and away!!!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 09:22 - ID#298259)
Bloomberg...Spot Gold
Bloomberg just reported spot gold at $310.90 up $3 and something.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 09:33 - ID#410114)
bonds & the dollar
since all currency is now debt the decesion to devalue the dollare will have the effect of droping the value of bonds.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 09:37 - ID#288369)
I am shocked ( and pleased ) to discover this morning that Bart didn't "pull my plug" during the dark hours. Consequently, I am encouraged to penetrate further, dragging the unwilling into the my intellectually trite the detriment of all. er, Maybe Not on rare thought.

GO GOLDBUGS!!!! And to all, have a profitable day! ( go oil too )

(Mon Apr 13 1998 09:38 - ID#269409)
@ Bulls...

(Mon Apr 13 1998 09:39 - ID#238295)
I have June gold up $2.10. But that is from the Thursday close.

I must now concede a point to LGB and the stock bulls. No doubt that stocks are a much better long-term investment than gold. That is how it must be in a capitalist society geared for economic growth.

But on those rare occasions when the markets go completely bonkers and gold falls to ridiculously undervalued levels, gold and gold stocks can appreciate huigely in a fairly short period of time. And this is most cwertainly one of those rare occasions.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 09:41 - ID#411149)
gold charts


Date: Mon Apr 13 1998 02:35
Bill Buckler ( Bullish On Gold? ) ID#256381:
Copyright  1998 Bill Buckler All rights reserved
Auric ( 00:23 ) IMO, having a fairly intimate knowledge of the trials and
tribulations of Gold over the past 25 years or so, all my charts are
pointing in the same direction - UP

But if you read my newsletter or my website, you will know that I have
left the same preface on my Gold commentary page unchanged since I
started posting it over two years ago: 'GOLD IS THE POLITICAL

There are some VERY important meetings coming up in Washington. I
must admit to some surprise that Gold did not retreat further last week,
although I know that it was down in intra-day trading almost every day.

As far as I am concerned, this latest move is entirely intact as long as
Gold stays above the $Us 295 level. If it breaks through $310, and stays
there, I will be as comfortable as I have been since 1976 not only have
we seen the bottom, but that Gold is going to go up from there.

I'm not going to go into great detail on these upcoming ( G-7, IMF etc. )
Washington meetings. I dealt with them in detail in the latest issue of
The Privateer. Suffice it to say here that the most significant
development I have seen in quite some time is Rubin's PUBLIC
approval of the Bank of Japan's intervention in the currency markets last

(Mon Apr 13 1998 09:46 - ID#288369)
Fortunately ( for all of Kitco ) your had A VERY minor stroke last night. Not to worry, I have them every other day. Best wishes for a speedy recovery....GO OLD GOLD!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 09:49 - ID#410114)
buckler's url
what is bucklers url?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 09:52 - ID#31868)

(Mon Apr 13 1998 09:54 - ID#251268)
one easy way to get to the url is scroll to the bottom of this page click hotlinks and look for The Privateer~~~good luck

(Mon Apr 13 1998 09:56 - ID#289357)

GCM8 312.8 + 2.6
SIK8 6.375 - .025

(Mon Apr 13 1998 09:56 - ID#398105)
James (Thoughts on America--A totally fuc*ed up Country)


Mate, would you like a wafer thin mint ?

Och aye the nooooooooooooo....................

(Mon Apr 13 1998 09:58 - ID#285121)
Gold up to fast !
Prepare for another CB sale next month !

(Mon Apr 13 1998 09:58 - ID#269409)
@ Old Gold.....09:39
You've just been upped 28 points on the professional Esteemometer there George! I agree 100%.... We had a phenomenal opportunity to buy PM's last summer at grossly undervalued levels, and at the very bottom ( relative to just about anything ) ...that opportunity still presents itself.,

However, in the LONG run....and on average, given just about any real world scenario we might put forth, stocks have and will continue to far outpace Gold as a medium of investment gain ( or even "insurance" , or "Store of value" for that matter ) .

If I were a Sheller, I might say that some conjunction or another demands that Stocks must fall and Gold must rise at the moment, and this trend could last 2 to 4 years. However, beyond that.......history will be our guide with certain modifiers insereted to account for economic levers sinstituted since the great depression, and the major changes in the basic funtioning of our economy since.

Falling corporate profits ahead? Yep. Rising unemplyment ahead due to balance of trade and weak foreign currency's? Yep. Better competition from EU after Euro is introduced? Maybe, Overvalued Equities by any classic standard of measure? Yep. Undervalued Gold/Silver/Plat., compared to historical ratios re DOW, dollar, Real Eastate......Yep!

But the opportunity for gain in PM's will be short lived of we look down the long road. Best capitalize quickly.

Caveat to above.... A total worldwide economic meltdown, or Apocoloypse in early 21 st century remain possibilities. In that scenario, PM's MAY and I do mean MAY, provide some protection. Then again, they may not! We live in a different world when it comes to trade and the technology which drives it. Sorry GoldBugs, electricity is here to stay. Fat lamps are gone...even if they DID remain viable for 6000 years.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 10:02 - ID#269409)
You're the only male I know with penis envy. Have you seen a therapist for that inferiority complex re U.S. of A. yet? Guy's like James can't stand success...I can see why you'd fall into his camp. Sorry, facts is facts. U.S. policies have often been immoral, illegal, and unethical...just to a lesser extent than other superpowers.

To bastardize a famous quote "This is the worst political system that exists....except for all the others"

(Mon Apr 13 1998 10:03 - ID#427357)
GOLD TRIVIA 1970-1996

In cleaning out my desk the other day I ran across some Gold Market Trivia - which you might find interesting.

Based upon gold bull markets from 1970 through January 1996, there have been 15 short-term rallies in gold bullion - averaging about +29.5% gain. The average rally lasted only about 2.5 months. However, there were three distinct clusters:

1. An average gain of 17.9% within 2.4 months.

2. An average gain of 40.1% within 2.6 months.

3. An average gain of 32.8% within 2.7 months.

Assuming gold has indeed put in a bottom - and if history repeats exactly - which it usually never does - we are then looking for the following gold prices per the above clusters. For our initial point, we will use The Privateer's breakout price of US$295
In the first week of April. See chart at:

Gold Targets based on historical rallies:

Per cluster #1 -- $348 by approximately June 20, 1998

Per cluster #2 -- $413 by approximately June 26, 1998

Per cluster #3 -- $392 by approximately July 1, 1998

HEY Who Knows..? In any case it would make for a nice summer ( :- )

P.S. - Historically, the XAU rises 3 to 5 TIMES more than gold in a legitimate precious metals bull market and the South African golds do EVEN BETTER!!!!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 10:10 - ID#288369)
@LGB and OldGold..........
BRAVO! Good ideas deserve capital...but right now, for the most part, the ideas are over-capitalized. Money is not learned, for fear of being idle, it has chosen to become reckless.

Write this one down by my name....."It is better to have laughed, than to have thought". away to the office ( and you know what goes on there ) !

(Mon Apr 13 1998 10:10 - ID#427357)
And South African Golds EVEN BETTER...

Three verrrrrry interesting South African Golds sold as ADRs in New York are:

RANGY - symbol for Randgold & Exploration
DROOY - synbol for Durban Deep
HGMCY - symbol for Harmony Gold Mining

Quotes may be obtained at:

(Mon Apr 13 1998 10:12 - ID#398105)
Nick@C (Thin skins.)...............
G'Day Nick,

One good thing about being Scots is that you develop a VERY thick skin//

From the rather limited response from our American Cousins, it would appear that a number of them are VERY sensitive. Rather strange..
What is this "American Dream" that "they" keep on going on about ?
It's got me rooted.........

No one appears to be able to give me relative statistics on the growth of the DOW/value of stocks vs the growth in the USA National Debt - since Clinton arrived in Washington ??


Oh to be an American...breeding isn't everything, but it sure is fun !!!!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 10:14 - ID#269409)
@ Pegasus
Pegasus is up 10% for you PSGQF followers...not bad eh?

( The thin skinned Ear biter...LGB )

(Mon Apr 13 1998 10:16 - ID#269409)
T Bills
Monday April 13, 9:26 am Eastern Time

US Treasuries weaker on dollar-related selling

*US Treasuries weaker on dollar-linked selling. *Support cited at 119-16 on June T-bond contract. *Support seen at 5.97 pct
on 30-year bond yield. *No economic data due until CPI, retail sales Tuesday. *Fed funds at 5-1/2 pct. System repurchases

(Mon Apr 13 1998 10:16 - ID#316193)
Bridge News Summary of Asia's Precious Metals Activity for Monday

(Mon Apr 13 1998 10:19 - ID#398105)
LGB (@Haggis)...........

G'Day Mate,

Penis envy............

It is a well know FACT that Scotsmans pricks are long and thin - the reason, they are so tight fisted !!

Scots wear Kilts because they have no pockets......

Every morning I start the day by borrowing three eggs.....

The Scots are environmentally sensitive - they recycle condoms..

Penis envy..........INDEED........

(Mon Apr 13 1998 10:24 - ID#398105) have got to know something ?!

No one appears to be able to give me relative statistics on the growth
of the DOW/value of stocks vs the growth in the USA National Debt -
since Clinton arrived in Washington ??

(Mon Apr 13 1998 10:26 - ID#269409)
@ US Debt...the DOW....& The American Dream
All numbers in this world are relative....The U.S. debt is around 5.5 Trillon at the doubt some of this "debt" has found it's way itno equities in a too quickly expanding money supply. However, realtive to economic gains, the debt is not disproportionate IF policymakers can take advantage of current conditions to mend their ways. Recent legislation is enouraging.

To put U.S. 5.5. trillion debt in prespective....U.S. real income growth rose in Jan. & Feb. to an annulaized rate of almost 8 trillion dollars. More annual REAL income gain, than the ENTIRE debt. And of course we have 28 year record low number of any major ecomomic entity. Add the strongest currency worldwide, highest corporate profits, and highest worker productivity, lowest tax burden for services performed, most diverse economy.....and it doesn't exactly add up to a collapse of the US of A.

Housing affordability in the US is now at the best level it's been in decades, as are gains in minority income, falling welfare rolls, falling crime rates, and a few dozen other powerful positives.

No, I don't think we have too uch to feel "thin skinned" about here.....lot's of problem left to solve, but going in the right direction. In any case, those who paint the picture as totally bleak, are simply peddling blatant falsehoods, and what's the point of that?

Lies for the sake of lies? Not healthy....not good for anyone's world view...not good for anyone's investment strategy....

Ahhhh phoooey ayyyyeeee

(Mon Apr 13 1998 10:28 - ID#280215)
Ray, OLDGOLD - RE: Bill Buckler
One thing to note from Bill Buckler's comments is that he mentions that $295 must hold. In other words, it would be nice for gold to go up in a nice straight line, but it could drop to around $295. Other than Glenn's call for new lows, most of the people who have posted shorting messages the last few days, such as APH, have indicated a SHORT TERM opportunity to the down side.

Someone pointed out last week that Andy Addison was on CNBC. He is considered one of the best or the best gold timer around. I watched it. He said that his work indicated a strong bull phase has started. However, even he said he now has to rethink and look over his shoulder a little because gold's gotten a little toppy at the moment.

Bottom line is that don't get too down should gold go to $295. If it goes lower, then start drinking. But until then, even a move to $295 still keeps the monthly indicators pointing up. Monthly gold shows that gold looked to have bottomed last month and all indicators show it is rising strongly.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 10:29 - ID#269409)
@ US debt
Almost forgot, Washington Post article last week, projects 50 Billion US budget surplus in 98. ( Not a Govt. number, independant economic analysis )

Not sure I believe it yet, time will tell, but if we don't go into major recession, a surplus is well nigh possible...

(Mon Apr 13 1998 10:34 - ID#269409)
@ Haggis
Y'all shouldn't feel bad anyway, you come from a country that makes the best Hard stuff in the world!

And remember, I'm 20% SCOTCH myself...... Uhhh...I mean 20% Scot !!! Too early AM to be that high SCOTCH yet....

(Mon Apr 13 1998 10:41 - ID#269409)
@ Haggis...size doesn't matter
This Scotsman and American were sitting on a pier on Loch Lommond drinking and waiting for Nessie to swim by. Needless to say that both had to take a leak, so they both stood up at the rail, and began.

The Scotsman said "Aye, this water is COLD!"

The American commented...."Yeah...DEEP TOO!"

(Mon Apr 13 1998 10:46 - ID#348286)
Gold spot 320 coming soon to a Gold store near you......

(Mon Apr 13 1998 10:49 - ID#411149)
STRADDLER-Thanks! Tally Ho!
I appreciate all comments but I wish glenn would give reasons and not jest a passing OPINION with no basis.

I ain't really worried about the short term, I have used the term before

Thanks ALL

(Mon Apr 13 1998 11:02 - ID#238295)
Gold stock indexes up just slightly today despite good rise in POG. Does suggest more backing and filling before next major upmove.

Dow down despite two big merger announcements! What is the world coming to?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 11:03 - ID#240120)
-56.54 @ 8938.32

(Mon Apr 13 1998 11:09 - ID#340459)
If the banks dont merge they die with overexposure, Down Curbs in Dow inspite of Financial Stocks up
I am heavily invested in TVX, Battle Mountain and Bema.
Any comments will be appreciated. Why is TVX down, I am in at C$6:15 ?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 11:09 - ID#398105)
LGB (@ US Debt...the DOW....& The American Dream)

According to your figures, there is clearly no problem !!

No worries Mate, she'll be right.

Get real, something has got to give ?!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 11:15 - ID#401237)

Interesting Chart Formation to the left. Could this be what they call a "spike up".

They are beginning to rotate into Gold - I HOPE!


(Mon Apr 13 1998 11:17 - ID#398105)
LGB (@ Haggis...size doesn't matter)

It's the quality that counts ... Of course, Americans would not appreciate that !?

GOLD... did you hear about the Dealer who asked the Central Banker for a gold loan

- "How do I stand for a gold loan?".

- "You don't, you kneel !".

(Mon Apr 13 1998 11:19 - ID#401237)
The Chart with an Attitude!

I think maybe the Chart is responding to Haggis and LGB's intellectual conversation about Pricks. And they haven't even mentioned the Prez.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 11:20 - ID#398105)

LGB... please rember that those who think they know it all upset those of us who do !

(Mon Apr 13 1998 11:21 - ID#398105)

LGB... please remember that those who think they know it all upset those of us who do !

(Mon Apr 13 1998 11:25 - ID#269409)
@ Pegasus now up 14% !!
Hmmm High, you may have a point there. After all, it would seem that some of our best economic "boom" times, correlate to philandering presidents...Kennedy comes to mind.....

(Mon Apr 13 1998 11:29 - ID#356379)
Hecla Mining (HL) Annual Report

Just got a copy of the Hecla Mining annual report, and was wondering if others on Kitco have had a look at it. They seem to have turned a major corner and are poised for even higher levels ( currently up 40% off recent lows ) . As a major player in both gold and silver, they will benefit as both metals continue to rally. Opinions?

Back to the still...

(Mon Apr 13 1998 11:40 - ID#263184) Hecla; stock has been acting much better since the
breakout in silver. It has long been a recommendation of Steven Leeb in his Personal Finance newsletter ( primarily the preferred ) . The stock price dropped a lot when they had to reevalue the feasibility of a new mine that they opened several years ago. Overall, I rate it above average in the precious metals sector in that it has a large exposure to silver. CDE has a larger silver exposure and seems to be the leader when silver rallies. Also, although I haven't studied the situation, I have seen statements that indicate that HL could be a takeover candidate. At these levels for gold stocks, lots of companies could also be deemed to be candidates; but with the turnaround at Hecla and its silver exposure, I would put it high on the list.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 11:42 - ID#188244)
Income Doubling?
LGB, unless I'm missing the intention of your post, you are saying that the real income GROWTH is annualized at 7 trillion dollars? This in an economy with a GDP of 7-8 trillion? Somethings wrong. Let's consider the true debt: the 5.5 trillion plus another 10 trillion or so in UNFUNDED liabilities. That puts our debt at about 200% of GDP. We may be able to grow our way out of it, but we are all going to have to eat more so that we can keep this record number of hamburger flippers busy!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 11:45 - ID#316193)
USAgold For Monday A.M.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 11:49 - ID#263184)
ALL... now that we have a gap in gold futures, do we see it close or is
it up from here? So far today the gold stocks have been quiet and holding relatively well in a weak overall market. Seems to me that there is a decent chance that the move up will resume with volume coming in to get some PM followers and others excited. BOJ intervention on behalf of the Yen this weekend should lend support to this theory.
On the other hand, most gaps do get filled so the realist in me keeps me from adding to my positions.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 11:50 - ID#25171)
Even though I am a true believer of the financial meltdown theory I have to acknowledge that the down move in the DOW today is mostly related to ARB , TRADERS , PEOPLE switching out of stocks into the banking stocks which are in the light today.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 11:52 - ID#408147)
@LGB Pegasus
...BBoard stocks quotes are not meaningful without the Bid/Ask spread being considered. Pegasus has had a large spread ( 50 bid/57 ask ) for quite some time. Any percieved 'big move' in their price is more likely a simple difference in the buy/sell price being executed. This is NOT the NYSE!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 11:52 - ID#212197)
@WSF: Unfunded Debt ? Where can I find more information about this?
You state the $5.5 trillion plus about $10 trillion unfunded debt.
Do you see a way to specify this number ?

Thank you in advance.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Mon Apr 13 1998 11:57 - ID#269409)
It's the actual transaction price I've been looking at, yes I knmow spread are larger, but with large buy/sell spread, you can take the medain, or you can take the bid side each time, or's still a move in one direction or the other, No??

(Mon Apr 13 1998 12:02 - ID#269409)
Where'd you come up with that GDP number? And what's this "unfunded" liability stuff? Is this the tired old solcial security thing agian? It has no meaning, the whole program is a pay as you go plan, "trust fund" terminology notwithstanding..and is coming under intense scrutinty at the moment to assure solvency long before the 2028 "break even" point of declining contribution vs. payouts.....Sure the younger employee's are being raped by their fat & happy retired elders at the moment, but that's anotehr issue. NO?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 12:04 - ID#324266)
JSE All Gold Index closed for Family Day as approved by Parliament.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 12:07 - ID#269409)
Global deflation...low risk
Monday April 13, 10:59 am Eastern Time

FOCUS -IMF cuts world growth forecast due to Asia

By Janet Guttsman

WASHINGTON, April 13 ( Reuters ) - The International Monetary Fund revised its global growth forecast down for the
second time in four months on Monday as Asia's rumbling economic crisis took its toll on prospects around the world.

The IMF's World Economic Outlook report, a summary of economic strengths and weaknesses in IMF member states, said
world growth would slow to 3.1 percent this year, from 4.1 percent in 1997.

But growth would recover to 3.7 percent in 1999, pointing to a less severe slowdown than in previous downturns in the last
two decades.

``Risks are about evenly balanced around the world growth forecast,'' IMF chief economist Michael Mussa told a news
conference introducing the closely-watched report.

``We may have upside potential for North America and Continental Europe, but there is some downside risk in Asia and a
number of other developing countries heavily dependent on commodity exports.''

The previous IMF forecast, released last December, said the world economy would grow by 3.5 percent. That was a
downward revision from an October forecast of growth of 4.3 percent.

The latest report said Asia's problems would encourage industrialized economies to keep monetary policy relatively loose, but
policymakers had to watch inflationary pressures.

The IMF report, written before Japan announced a new stimulus package of tax cuts and public spending, projected zero
Japanese growth this year, down from 0.9 percent in 1997, although Mussa expected negative growth in the first half.

``The fiscal stimulus offers some reasonable hope that in the second half there will be some resumption of positive growth,''
he said of the world's second-largest economy.

But the IMF said there was little risk of global deflation, because conditions were considerably different from those during the
Great Depression of 1929-33.

Even if the slowdown in global growth accelerated more than expected, it said central banks would have ample scope to lower
interest rates to prevent deflation, which occurs when the general price level declines over a prolonged period.

``Fortunately growth in North American and western Europe has been well sustained and appears likely to remain so in the
period ahead,'' the IMF said, noting that domestic demand was robust in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom
and was strengthening in much of continental Europe.

``The Asian crisis is likely to exert a moderate contractionary and disinflationary effect on the industrial, as on other
economies, thus reducing the risk of overheating in those countries operating at high levels of resource utilization, in
particular the United States.''

The IMF forecast 2.9 percent growth in the United States this year, declining to 2.2 percent next year.

Canada would be the fastest expanding member of the Group of Seven major industrialized countries this year with forecast
1998 growth of 3.2 percent.

The Fund predicted negative growth in Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea, the three countries which won big
IMF-sponsored rescue deals last year. Malaysia and the Philippines would also experience slower growth.

``Although there are painful adjustments yet to come, there are grounds for expecting a continuing recovery of confidence in
these economies in the year ahead, followed by a moderate pickup in 1999,'' it said.

The IMF said other developing countries would also be hit by the Asian economic flu, but it still forecast 1998 growth of 4.6
percent in Africa, 3.3 percent in the Middle East and 3.4 percent in Latin America.

It said economies would grow across the former East bloc, with gas-rich Turkmenistan -- forecast growth of 20.0 percent --
leading the upward trend.

``For the first time, none of the transition countries ( of central and eastern Europe ) is expected to experience a decline in
activity and the overall expansion is expected to strengthen further in the medium term,'' it said.

The Turkmen economy declined 25.9 percent last year.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 12:10 - ID#408147)
@LGB Pegasus
...yes, its still a move, but more of a move of the ask from 55 to 57 than a move from a 50 bid to a 57 ask... Need to be sure you are comparing apples to apples...

(Mon Apr 13 1998 12:15 - ID#345176)

You ask my opinion on TVX, ... I own it.
Here is someone else's opinion from the TVX Yahoo msg board, msg 467


One of the top
Canadian stock MJPR_98 Apr 13 1998
selection for 1998 2:13AM EDT

Excerpts from the HSBC James Capel's Top Picks for 1998.
Low cost operations and great potential best describe TVX
Gold. With interests in five gold mines and 1998 average cash
costs likely to total US$220, the company can survive the
current gold price weakness.
Despite the negative press coverage of the Kassandra assets
in Greece, these world-class assets will be developed
boosting cash flow, earnings and the stock price. Our target
price is CAN $9.
You do not have to buy into TVX if you are afraid, but I did
at CAN $3.85 in January 98, last Friday it was CAN $5.60.
Only $3.40 to go. Go Gold...Go Gold.
Do not forget the Silver...TVX is number 3 in the world.
TVX was close to Can $16 in January 96 when Gold was just
under $400. It could happen again....right???

(Mon Apr 13 1998 12:20 - ID#188244)
I got the number off the top of my head. But to verify:

US Census bureau has US GDP at 7,756 billion ( that's 7.76 trillion ) for 1996. Add your favorite growth number to get 1997. As to the unfunded liabilities, if you understood the demographics of this country, you'd consider it important. I'll get some background on this at some point and get it to you. Got to go for now

(Mon Apr 13 1998 12:21 - ID#188244)
LGB: My last post was directed to you

(Mon Apr 13 1998 12:23 - ID#340302)
Just as various Wall Street institutions often seek to downgrade golds ( aka de-index golds ) in order to preclude call option losses, redirect bear monies to DOW/Nasdaq darlings, and/or force the prices lower for re-accumulation purposes, so it is wise for gold investors to act in a proactive manner and issue their own DOW/Nasdaq downgrades as a means of de-indexing DOW stocks and redirecting cash flows to the gold sector.

So, in keeping with that spirit, my own special DOW downgrade of the DAY: the old rhinoceros, IBM, whose lofty share price in the face of a radical decline in global computer sales, is certainly largely the factor of an extremely active corporate share buyback program. In fact, I would suspect that as much as 20% of the IBM share price is owing to corporate share buybacks. The most ominous indicator of IBM's future weakness is the recently announced disastrous results and forecasts of major U.S. retailer, COMP USA. Retailer results are often future indicators of manufacturer results. There is little doubt that computer manufacturers are experiencing signficant sales weakness as a result of Asia...and now a major indigenous computer retailer is indicating a notable slowdown in computer sales in America as well. It would be very interesting to take a good look at IBM's cash position when it is revealed shortly. My own suspicion is that it will be on the "narrow" side.

On a macro level, one other negative factor can be included: as a result of rotation in the markets, the banking sector is currently being targeted with mutual fund inflows while the tech sector is the new favored target for mutual fund outflow. This rotation, although described by Wall Street bulls as a healthy sign of a bull market, is actually a substantive indicator of the bull's weakness. It is becoming harder and harder for index funds to sustain the entire market on its vertical climb. Hence, rotation is more actively employed, allowing certain sectors to boom while other sectors must necessarily languish.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 12:25 - ID#25171)
IMF economic forecast
I guess nobody forgot that the same guys who still dare speaking were the one who gave the world a " green light " for investing in THAILAND just days before it collapsed.
How can these people still have the nerve to try to predict anything?
Would be funny if I could interview him on CNBC!
Did they take the Y2000 bug fixing cost into account ( at least 600 bn dollars for OECD ) ?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 12:38 - ID#411149)
gold stocks
TVX, HL, BMG should do varry well in this gold bull, but iffin you
really want to make some money you need some [or a BUNCH of DROOY]
depending how RICH you want to be. IMO you could not GIVE me
Bema, low grade, don't like clive Johnson, plus the Preacher
will not say grace on it.

Tally Ho

(Mon Apr 13 1998 12:39 - ID#17796)
F*-Who made you God?
Bless me F* for I have........Amen. Tom IDCIBM -more K's today.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 12:42 - ID#345176)
@ RAY on HECLA Mng.

How can you like HL - a company which incurred losses
in each of the last 7 years? Reflection on management
and not on PM prices.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 12:46 - ID#25171)
T-BOND down almost 1%
The FED has been selling T_BILLS on behalf of the BOJ today.Gold up 2 dollars from thursday.
The day of reckoning is one day closer every day.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 12:53 - ID#269409)
@ WSF...U.S. GDP vs. Personal income
Not sure the numbers in the article I cited earlier were correct, BUT, while it's true that GDP has been growing to approx. the 7.5 trillion level annually, my reading of the personal income data as that it is well in excess of 7 trillion per month or 85 + trillion per annum, and the increases in Jan/Feb., if annualized, would exceed 7 trillion.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 12:55 - ID#269409)
@ WSF...
Here's a good link for all kinds of basic US economic data. it's where I get most of my basic figures when making relative comparisons

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:01 - ID#345176)
Answering some more questions on GLAMIS GOLD LTD. - GLG

Some posters wanted more info on GLG, here it is:

The break even price per ounce of gold, including all costs,
depreciation, depletion, royalties, corporate administration,
and exploration,
BUT EXCLUDING inventory, investment write-downs, and one time costs associated with corporate restructuring are:


1998............$ 303 ( estimated )
1997............$ 328 ( actual )
1996............$ 340 ( actual )

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:06 - ID#427357)

If this is not a bullish ( 60 minute ) bar chart for RANGY, I don't know what is:

Mike Sheller
(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:07 - ID#347447)
LGB, and other chart readers
Fatlamps! Aren't those them lamps with the big colored globules of fat what keep rising and falling ( like markets ) inside the liquid lamp base? One thing I love about you, LGB, is your standing up for America. I'm right beside you pal. And I don't have to dis any other's STILL the light of the world.

Now, what's this stuff about Bill Buckler really knowing how to read a gold chart? Come on gang, its just so typical. A prophet ( and even a profit ) in his own land, etc. I'm here almost all the time, and where is Buckler? Maybe he posts here once a month, throwing scraps to the Kitco pack of dogs. But HE is the big chart reader. Sure! And he's saying practically just what I've been saying. Here, I'll post it again because it really is worth your reading folks...last person I relayed this to was on demand by a Hindu astrologer. I think you guys and gals are at least equally deserving...

"Judging from the channel gold seems to be etching here, there's room for one more wavelet up to 319. Resistance might come in there. If so, and there's a failure, we could see a retracement to about the 296ish level, with the uptrend

and embryonic bull still breathing. Remember, Easter signifies that we no longer have to sacrifice animals to please the Almighty, so I say let the bull go free, and

sin no more ( the hard part ) . An upside penetration of the upper line of this current intermediate term price channel will take us to 330 by the end of April. Possible new resistance comes in there. IMVHO, of course. So 319 is critical

here. The shares may be a tad overbought, technically, but in the early stages of a good rise, that condition can persist for startlingly long periods of time. PDG, for

instance, on the weekly chart looks like it has either begun to reverse, or is ready to put in a straight line upweek or two blast off."

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:09 - ID#373403)
Bank Mergers
What is up with these mega mergers? The CEO's get on TV and state that they only talked with each other three weeks ago and it seemed like such a good idea that it's happening very quickly. Same story last week with CitiBank/Travelers.

Something else is going on here.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:09 - ID#427357)

If this is not a bullish ( 60 minute ) bar chart for DROOY, then I don't know what is:

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:11 - ID#410114)
Philly exchange
SEQUIN, are you a floor trader on the Philly options exchange?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:11 - ID#345176)

Breakout at $1 5/8, currently the stock at $1 9/16.

1/16 more to go. GO RANGY, GO !

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:13 - ID#356379)
Hecla Mining (HL)

Thanks, lenaxe, for your 11:40 response. The hit you took from Menopause was based on a simplistic approach to equity analysis.

Some companies DO improve with time. Hecla has reduced its cost of production significantly in the last two years, and is now benefitting from its focus on a leaner operation. The stock's big increase in value in the last few months is proof that this improvement has not gone unnoticed by some big players with deep pockets. As the good senator from Carolina might say: "They's some accumulatin' going on out there." Several funds have added Hecla to their portfolios. I expect a run to $8.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:17 - ID#25171)
It is not to difficult to figure out what is going on.In fact , it is just about money and ego ( or vice versa ) .
Banks CEOs see their pals getting bigger and richer and want a part of the dough.Their stock options are skyrocketing but they know the party will soon be over. ( How could it be otherwise when john nobody is brainwashed into being persuaded to buy stocks on margin with the proceeds of his home sale )
So the quicker the better as the famous bowl of punch will soon be taken back.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:17 - ID#238295)
One month gold leade rate down to 1.2% -- far below the one year rate of 2.1%. Shows that the shorts ( who have been the smart money in this market ) are no longer shorting in any appreciable size. Some would say this is bearish, but I say it is bullish.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:18 - ID#225273)
Ray & Bema

Not sure what you meant. I like Bema as a trading vehicle. I sold mine this morning at C$3.80 for a C$.50 per share profit. I bought it on Feb 27. Not so bad.

Although the POG is up this morning, nothing has changed from my post last Thursday ( The Ugly Truth ) in my mind. The senior gold stocks are not responding to the rise in the gold price. They should be leading if this is for real.

Of course, in a bull market, there are many upside surprises. But I still think today is giving us a good opportunity to lighten up on gold producers.

Myrmiddon, you are not doing badly with PDLCF. It's been bouncing between its 100- and 200-day MA. I think it's just a matter of time before it breaks over the 200-day and moves substantially higher.

The Preacher

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:18 - ID#217177)
Fund selling in gold above 313.00 basis June ? Are we running out of steam already? Or are the Aussies getting itchy ..... ?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:19 - ID#340302)
BKX and the XAU & momentum parallels between the two indices....
In much the same way that the BKX has exploded without warning, we will soon witness a similar explosion in the XAU.

The imminent, pre-annual meetings announcements of consolidation in the gold industry certainly will trigger a "Buy Panic" in XAU stocks just as fierce as that now occurring via consolidation in the banking sector.
Many gold investors will be caught by surprise...and many mainstream DOW investors who finally "get it" will probably redirect enormous investment money flows to the XAU.

Moreover, the XAU continues to climb "The Goldbug Wall of Worry." Owing to the lengthy gold bear, most goldbugs simply cannot imagine anything more than a maximum, short-term 10% rise in the POG and/or XAU without a notable correction. Chartists and technicians play upon this notable Achilles Heel in the psychology of goldbugs, commonly issuing very downbeat forecasts after any 10% rise in either the metal or the XAU.
Their forecasts become part of a self-fulfilling prophecy -- one based upon a keen understanding of goldbug fears and the penchant of most goldbugs' to subscribe to such "technical voodoo."

Owing to the goldbugs' psychological Achilles Heel, much of the huge upspike in POG and the XAU will come most likely from mainstream Wall Street investors who perceive the imminent hefty spikes in store for the gold sector. Unfortunately, goldbugs themselves will likely not participate in gold's good fortunes to the same degree as these outsider investors.

Why not?

Again, the answer: the entrenched, bearish psychology of goldbugs owing to years of intimidation by Wall Street. When you are wrong so long, it becomes difficult to trust your own instincts. Therefore, the real force of strong, conviction-filled buying will come from "born again" Wall Street professional Bulls who have both the financial resources and the strength and courage of their convictions. When they truly perceive the gold bull is in full force, they will come in heavily and "buy and hold" -- a strategy which most goldbugs do not endorse since any such strategy has, on a historical basis, generally ended up in failure.



Joe Champion__A
(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:19 - ID#252237)
Synthetic production of precious metals
For those interested, total commercial processes for the production of precious metals, via low energy nuclear reactions is available at:

Joe Champion

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:20 - ID#410114)
gold lease rates
Old Gold

James Turk says it is bullish. You and he agree.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:21 - ID#25171)
@ Rob
I used to be a floor market maker on interest rates options on LIFFE 7 years ago but I haven't gone back in the pit since then.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:23 - ID#345176)
@ Preacher

Holding PDLCF long term. Up 1/8 ( +6.67% ) at $2.00!
This is really good considering that SWC is down 1/16 to $26 3/16.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:31 - ID#286279)
If memory serves me right, it was ironically called the Golden Bear, just across the street from the beach. We had to wait in line to see/hear Butterfield Blues Band, Mike Bloomfield ( lead guitar ) , Sam Lay ( drums ) , Elvin Bishop ( rhythm guitar. )

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:31 - ID#345176)

Suggestion: Modify slightly your post about IBM and post
it at the YAHOO IBM msg board. You will certainly make them think.
We couldn't care less about IBM, although we love your posts.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:37 - ID#25171)
@ F*
Even though I am a great admirer of your psychological war on Goldbears I tend to disagree with your latest post . Sir , have you no faith anymore in your fellow Goldbugs? We, who are still there, are mostly undeterred by the Wallstreeters you 're referring to.
The path to financial independance is clear and we will hold and buy more as XAU goes higher!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:37 - ID#289357)
Joe Champion

( From a Chemical Engineer )

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:37 - ID#340302)
@MYRMIDON...thanks again for your valuable input...
...I am not familiar with the Yahoo Chat if you wish to take it upon yourself to post my comments there, then naturally, I would approve.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:45 - ID#340302)
@SEQUIN...I do not lack faith in goldbugs....
...however, I believe I understand the current, predominant psychology of
the group...and I do not condescend but rather fully empathize with it.

Moreover, I think Wall Street errs in its current conception of goldbugs as "a bunch of negative, downbeat depressives."

Today, for any individual to be a goldbug -- in the face of constant mainstream disparagement and ridicule -- takes an enormous amount of positive energy...and a tremendous amount of optimism.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:55 - ID#269409)
@ Farfel...OPtimism?
Farfel, You said "Today, for any individual to be a goldbug -- in the face of constant mainstream disparagement and ridicule --
takes an enormous amount of positive energy...and a tremendous amount of optimism. "

My question is, optimism about what? The end of economic civilization as we know it? Global economic meltdown? The popping of the DOW bubble leading to deflationary collapse? Some optimism!!!!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:56 - ID#270315)
I could not agree with you more. I am very bullish long term, the biggest verification that I am correct comes from a quote. Peter Monk of Barrick Gold fame was quoted as saying; the rise in silver prices over the last year will pale in comparison to the impending price rise that is due in the price of Gold. I am and will remain on the ship of good fotune, no matter how rough the seas become.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 13:59 - ID#347235)
@ Mr Champion

I have some nice beach front property @ Point Barrow Alaska for sale!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:07 - ID#269409)
Gold....Very bullish Kaplan comments
From late last week....

BUY GOLD-The recently accelerating commercial accumulation of gold futures in a rising market is the most impressive
feature of the past week's trading, especially since it has been given scant attention by analysts, and indicates that the price of
gold is likely to continue to rise sharply.

LOW EXPECTATIONS SUPPORT GOLD-Bundesbank council member Ernst Welteke announced on Tuesday that gold
would play only a minor role in the European Central Bank. Though gold initially sold off on the remark, it later recovered
to end the day with a small gain. An enormous amount of negative news and expectations is built into the current price, so that
additional bad news will merely cause the price to remain stable, while good news will lead to a rally. Since there are almost
no "stale" longs in gold, while speculators continue to add mightily to their short positions, there is almost no one to sell, and
many who must eventually buy.

EQUALLY UNDERVALUED-For half the price that they paid for Citicorp, Travelers Group could have purchased all of the
world's precious metals mines. All of them at half the price! ( In practice, of course, any such massive takeover would require
a significant premium, but it would still have cost considerably less than Citicorp. ) Naturally, analysts almost universally
praised the Citicorp acquisition as a tremendous bargain. Go figure.

STILL COMMITTED-Commercial accumulation for gold surprisingly accelerated on Thursday, Friday, and even more
strikingly on Monday, with a net increase in open interest of 15,369 contracts on Monday alone-a number usually only seen on
a day when gold drops several percent. Such consistent commercial accumulation in a rising market is extremely bullish,
indicating that commercials are willing to continue buying without waiting for a dip in the price. Many analysts who are
puzzled by the rise in the gold price are attributing the move to short covering. Ironically, they could claim that it is due to
"Japan" or "Asia", or to a sudden urge to diversify ( this last theory has suddenly gained credibility, possibly because it makes
sense even to those who don't understand the financial markets very well ) , or to a rekindled desire for something yellow and
shiny, or even to "El Nino", and it would be hard to dispute such a claim with solid evidence. The short covering hypothesis,
however, can be easily disproven by simply checking daily open interest figures, which continue to rise. This is something that
would be mathematically impossible ( like the Rangers winning the Stanley Cup this year ) if there were speculator short
covering, since speculators are heavily net short, and open interest would be declining. The fact is that, so far, an increasing
number of speculators are selling short as the price rises, historically a dangerous course of action.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:15 - ID#28861)
Optimism about what?
LGB: I am optimistic about an improved mining industry with declining costs, mergers & acquistions, smarter and smaller work forces etc. Harmony is an example of a mining company that is making money without any major disaster driving the price of gold up. Battle Mountain has been through the ringer and is now up 20% over my buy in point. Throw out the "End of the world as we know it" theories and just evaluate the industry like you would any other one. What other industry group still has single digit P/E ratios? low price-to-book? etc. etc.

The best future case for gold is not "doom and gloom". The best case comes from global competition against the U.S. dollar as THE reserve currency for the first time in over 50 years. If the Euro and/or some Asian counterpart can challenge the dollar, then gold will fare well. Until then, I'm prospecting for good companies which can make money during boring times.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:15 - ID#25171)
Is this the same P. MONK who sold a significant stake of his holdings in ABX to buy real estate a few month ago ?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:18 - ID#345176)
@ FARFEL - your modified post as posted on Yahoo IBM msg board
This article is posted here with the author's permission

Author: Farfel


IBM, whose lofty share price in the face of a
radical decline in global computer sales, is certainly largely the factor of an extremely active corporate share buyback program. In fact, I would suspect that as much as 20% of the IBM share price is owing to corporate share buybacks. The most ominous indicator of IBM's future weakness is the recently announced disastrous results and forecasts of major U.S. retailer, COMP USA. Retailer results are often future indicators of manufacturer results. There is little doubt that computer
manufacturers are experiencing signficant sales weakness as a result of Asia...and now a major indigenous computer retailer is indicating a notable slowdown in computer sales in America as well. It would be very interesting to take a good look at IBM's cash position when it is revealed shortly. My own suspicion is that it will be on the "narrow" side.

On a macro level, one other negative factor can be included: as a
result of rotation in the markets, the banking sector is currently being targeted with mutual fund inflows while the tech sector is the new favored target for mutual fund outflow. This rotation, although described by Wall Street bulls as a healthy sign of a bull market, is actually a substantive indicator of the bull's weakness. It is becoming harder and harder for index funds to sustain the entire market on its vertical climb. Hence, rotation is more actively employed, allowing certain sectors to boom while other sectors must necessarily languish.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:18 - ID#410198)
No charts,No secret info,No taro card reading,just good old gut feeling BIG WEEK FOR GOLD

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:21 - ID#421269)
I own and operate a retail - wholesale hardware lumber store.

I ran a computer check on top 1000 items in my store , taking cost now

as opposed to 12 months ago. Cost now, +12.7% over year ago.

Inflation , deflation... you figure!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:21 - ID#432157)
Is there a URL to support KAPLIN's position ????

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:21 - ID#345176)
@ Farfel, lets see if this will work for you

go to:

and click on msg 1106

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:24 - ID#280215)
LGB, Anyone RE: Kaplan Report
Kaplan indicated the Commercial accumulation accellerated last week. The last COT report dated April 7 showed commercials net SHORT by about 30,000 contracts. Is this accurate?? If they are now net long or at least very close, this is VERY bullish to make up that many contracts. This would kill the bear theory that the buying ( heavy volume ) in the last few weeks was related to solely rolling over from the April contract to June.

Is the lastest COT out yet? If so, does it show any changeover to now being net LONG or at least close? Thanks in advance!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:25 - ID#286230)
"Peter Monk of Barrick Gold fame was quoted as saying; the rise in silver prices over the last year will pale in comparison to the impending price rise that is due in the price of Gold."

Can you give us the site for Munks comments. I 'd Love to read the entire message from Mr. Barrick.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:28 - ID#411149)
Preacher- I ain't got time to trade and don't like Bema. Was under
the impression you talked down on Bema because of it's LOW grade
and some other things. I jest got a BAD taste for Bema when I
owned a large chunk and Clive sole us down the river. Also had
Arizona Star on Bishop's recomendation as a better play and
got screwed there to. Sure glad I sold KRY at a double the
same day Bishop recomended it, I learnt a long time ago to don't
play around with them court decisions.

Tally Ho

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:31 - ID#266105)
@what color is your parachute

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:31 - ID#338228)
confirmed here...
net long position in gold of 5,247 lots as of April 7

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:33 - ID#286230)
glenn: Could you give us your views on the factors supporting an increasing gold price and those that point to a decline?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:34 - ID#340302) I have often said... is all in the perception...

Do you wish to see the glass as half-full or half-empty?

From your perspective on goldbugs, the glass is always half-empty. You will always regard the goldbugs as doomsayers and negative people.

Yet, let me analogize your comments to Wall Street...that is, I will provide you a half-empty glass perspective on your esteemed Dow investments.

From such a half-empty glass perspective, I posit that the irrational exuberance and over-speculation in the Dow/Nasdaq is not an indication of optimism or positivity...rather, it is a clear case of blind greed, cynicism, opportunism, and twisted logic. If anything, in today's hysterical investment world, the bulls are the misanthropes...the ones holding the most negative and sour perspectives on humanity and the future.


For example, much of contemporary Wall Street's meteoric rise is predicated upon "the greater fool theory." Many bulls do not have a single ounce of conviction in the Dow's sustained vertical rise...they are certain that Wall Street's verticality will end in disaster and a long depression. However, they are counting on other "idiots" piling on board, thus maintaining the market's perpetual verticality, such that at a particular opportune moment discernible only to a select "enlightened few," these "geniuses" will jump off the bandwagon, leaving all the other fools holding the bag.

That makes Bulls a very cynical group who have very little faith in the good judgement of their fellow bulls...and certainly no greater positive faith in the future.

Another example:

Much of the great Wall Street Bull verticality owes itself to the plethora of misfortunes afflicting America's workers. Hundreds of thousands of people have been thrown into the streets by corporate America these past few years...and with every announcement of layoffs, Wall Street cheers its approval by sending corporate America's stocks higher. Increased profitability at the expense of millions of unemployed Americans ....hmmmmm? Furthermore, these mass layoffs usually result in the remaining employed workers taking on much greater work burdens. So, for example, let's consider an airline...the work performed by four stewardesses now carried out by only two. Increased pressures and frustrations piling upon the remaining workers...not to mention airline customers who are peeved by reduced service provided owing to insufficient manpower.

All of this makes Wall Street Bulls extremely misanthropic, cold, beasts who cheer and revel in the misfortunes of others...who applaud the increasing levels of frustration, anger, and resentmentamongst the working people of this country.

So, by extrapolation, what would be the ultimate fantasy of a Wall Street Bull?

Answer: the announcement that every company in America is laying off all its workers and replacing them with robots? To hell with the resultant domestic strife...the increase in alcholism, spousal abuse, child beating, etc., resulting from people unable to lead fulfilling, engaged, meaningful lives.

Higher Unemployment is a supreme good in the Wall Street Bull's Weltanschauung.

So, LGB, again, it's all in the perspective...

Someday, hopefully, you will "get it."



(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:34 - ID#338228)
Straddler...lets try that again

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:37 - ID#280215)
THANK YOU, Frustrated!
You may not have to be frustrated much longer!!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:47 - ID#410198)
A word to the wise,numismatics are a leading indicator to future price of gold,
the Kelly Blue book of numismatics the CDN has this comment on gold:

The gold chart shows many plus signs.Strong Bidding by dealers is evident for Uncirculated Gold.This is especially true for grades MS-63 and better.The complaint by many dealers is not being able to find sufficient quantities of Gold to fill their customer needs.Unfortunately as the price of Gold bullion increases,added pressure is being exerted on price.Dealers need Gold coins and are hoping more will appear on the market

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:48 - ID#340302)
@MYRMIDON...thanks for your encouragement and help...
...I like your revision and please feel free to post it.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:51 - ID#345176)
@ FARFEL, re: 14:34 post

The example you cite of the Airline industry can be extended to many industries, but in particular to the Health care / Hospital industry.

The Hospital industry in order to reduce labor costs has laid off many many nurses to the point that Hospital wards are now operating below the critical staff to patient ratio. This has resulted in bad patient care, bad treatments, nurses errors due to work overloading, and seldom publisized deaths. Nurses often breakdown in tears because of the work pressure now imposed by the Wall Street gangsters. I am well aware of the reduction in patient care in the Medical industry because my wife is the Nursing Supervisor in one major Columbia HCA hospital.

Now, one can point to the increased standard of living in the USA, but he should also point to the decreased quality of life.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:52 - ID#289357)
A. Goose at COMEX elligible stockpiles

I contacted the people at to see if the daily published elligible stockpiles for gold and silver are maintained by them in a data base....Nope!....Nice house, nobody home......No one ( but US ) seems interested in these numbers.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:53 - ID#345176)
@ Farfel

Sir, I posted it, go to the URL I indicated and read msg 1106!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 14:57 - ID#411149)
Well Dad gum, dad gum! Looks like gold closed on it's HIGH
for the day UP$2.70 to $312.90.

Tally Ho

You BEARS take THAT AND THAT AND THAT.............

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:02 - ID#330175)
Isure(14:21)....& inflation in the building supply business
Isure: Bein a carpenter I've noticed the inflation in your business during the past year!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:04 - ID#411149)
Jest another example today in the STOCK market of SMART money
sellin and them PO boys buyin on the dip. Bow Wow now UP!

There was an 84 year old manager of $6Billion bucks on CNBC
the other day said new money comin into the market would take
25 years to get back to even much less make money.

Isure- plant growers can get a $500/mo raise jest fot the askin.
Ain't never seen that before. Heck we ain't got no INFLATION!

Tally Ho

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:09 - ID#317193)
F*- I think LGB was able to "get it" some time ago.
LGB just doesn't see the need for a disaster for gold to rise. LGB is correct in the short term. Gold mining stocks may be the "penny" stocks of this Dow bull. Unfortunately, a currency crisis may transform the just commenced gold bull into a thundering herd of bulls in the china shop. Who knows for sure? Something is,however, brewing with the big money boys. Spot gold is consistantly up the last half-hour the last few trading days. Tom

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:10 - ID#340459)
Why are Gold stocks anaemic, while spot has climbed $2.70
?????? This market defies my assumptions???

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:13 - ID#269409)
@ Farfel
I'll try and respond to your thesis without using the word "inane". Let's look at one of your final lines, which of course destroys your entire post. You said...

"Higher Unemployment is a supreme good in the Wall Street Bull's Weltanschauung. "

And yet..... we now enjoy the lowest unemployment level in 28 YEARS! The highest peak in the DOW, accomplanied by the best employment numbers, and highest real income increases seen in decades.....

Why don't you tune in to Bob Brinker some weekend and find out what a REAL stock bull believes about the American worker, and what drives Wall Street higher..instead of your delusional fantasies eh?

Bulls and Bears exists on teh Street, and in PM's for various reasons. I find myself currently a stock Bear and Gold Bull..let me emphasize CURRENTLY.

In the long run however, I MOST long term stock bulls, believe in higher equities due to US economic strength, and the strength of the AMerican worker, enterprenarialism, ingenuity, and many otehr positives. The majority of stock bulls fall into the camp for the same reasons.

With Gold Bulls I find the opposite is true IN GENERAL. Lot's of Gloom and Doom end of the world folks, and few who believe our lot in life will continue in a positive direction.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:13 - ID#340302)
@MYRMIDON RE: your 14:34...that is exactly the point....
...quality of life is not measured simply in terms of "profits."

But Wall Street Bulls don't "get it."



(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:22 - ID#288369)
Just a short note because I've gotta' get back to work.......

And also I must preface this comment with due respect to Old Gold's "revelation" overnight....But I can only recall a handful of instances in my "adult" ( past 40 ) business career whereby some person changed my mind. Oh yea, I listened, I debated, I scoffed, I laughed off, I politely agreed to dispose of the matter....but I virtually always walked away from a contrarion encounter with an "unchanged" mind. I guess we all get a bit hard-headed in our GOLDen years, eh?

I say to you that your steadfast "open" opinion and analysis of investment opportunities such as those which have existed in the stock market have changed the way I look at them. This may not seem to you of any significance, and, certainly in the overall scheme of things it's not; however, to me it is. I have listened to many extremely wealthy and powerful persons expound on these matters, and yet they have not swayed me. You have.

I would also say to you that I appreciate the time and effort that you have freely given to our group, and, in particular, me. And it has been a full time job for me to just keep my mind open. I know you know what I mean.

In closing, I also know you, like myself and all here, only have some of the answers and ears are one of the two apparatuses which we have to find them. I must have mine intact to discern my prolific sour notes and such.
And let it also be said, that you stand here today in our house to pursue our common benefit. And others do not.

Thank you, studio.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:23 - ID#340302)
@LGB...of course, I expected your response...
...highest employment in 28 years, you exult! Obviously, Farfel must be completely out to lunch, you rejoice!

Once again, LGB, let's examine the facts...

Again, I reiterate...quality of life is key.

Much of the employment in America today is "low quality employment." Specifically, minimum wage jobs or de facto minimum wage jobs....and "overstressed jobs" owing to people performing certain jobs today that used to be performed by many more people.

What about the abundance of people working two jobs in our society just to get by? Again, so much for "quality of work."

The only workers in America who are truly, unambiguously experiencing the benefits of Wall Street are the Wall Street workers themselves as they wallow in their slop of filthy lucre.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:24 - ID#411149)
Midas- I take my baby boy, 275lbs, 6'3", [he was born PISSED off to] fishin.I catch three times as many fish as him because he always checks
his bate too many times instead of jest bein CALM and PATIENT. Jest
sit back and hang on everything is gona be FINE. You probably gona be RICH!

Tally Ho

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:25 - ID#269409)
@ Farfel.....furthermore
Also, since you seem to believe that Wall St. profits must necessarily be built on stealing from the "little guy" workers..... how do you presume to account for the afct that currently we have

* Fastest decreasing welfare rolls in decades
* Fastest decreasing percentage of below poverty families in decades
* Fastest INCREASING minority income levels in decades
* Fastest INCREASING minority owned business in decades
* Most affordable housing index in decades
* Fastest growth in real personal income in years
* Rising savings rate, past 3 months
* Extremely high consumer confidence

Couple thses FACTS with historically low level interest rates, relatively low inflation ( compared to the 70's anyway ) , improving quality of life indexes virtually across the board in almost every area of the country...

All co-inciding with a stock market peak....and I'm supposed to believe that stock market bulls all believe in decimating the American worker ( and hence the American economy ) as a way to boost stock prices? Uh huh....yeah....uh huh......

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:28 - ID#252150)
LGB@You said:
My question is, optimism about what? The end of economic civilization as we know it?
Global economic meltdown? The popping of the DOW bubble leading to deflationary
collapse? Some optimism!!!

It hardly qualifies as optimism, but what you described is already stark
reality for millions of people in SEAsia.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:29 - ID#340302)
@MIDAS...why are gold stocks anemic in the face of a POG rally... per previous posts...goldbugs do not really believe in the solidity of the POG rally.

They are waiting nervously for the trapdoor to open suddenly ( as per the historical gold bear ) and the inevitable fall into disaster. They are unconvinced that a gold market trend shift is occurring.

Meanwhile, the bulls are too busy today throwing all their money into the exploding banking sector to look at any other investment alternatives.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:30 - ID#210235)
@All - on stocks and social security fund
I have been chaining some recent news together and wish to present my take on it for you guys to rip apart, shred, destroy as you will, that I may fine-tune my reasoning:

From Andrew Tobias' entertaining read, Money Angles ( 1984 ) "What most people do - particularly those who can least afford it - it to invest wistfully, buying whatever it is they wish they had bought sometime before. They are convinced this is the way to make money, because all the success stories are about people who have been making money this way ( whatever "this way" happens to be at the time ) , and so finally they take the greedy plunge - and are the last ones into the pool.

Now, you say, how can "most people" be the last ones in? Surely this is a contradiction in terms. But it is not. The reason 95 percent of the people into some investment may be among the last ones in is that the other 5 percent, who got in first, have most of the money. It takes a lot of poor suckers, in at the end in $3,000 chuncks, to enrich a few millionaires."

Now, we are mostly agreed that we are at the mature stages of a bull markets, a period of distribution, as the pros like to call it. What has been bugging me all weekend are those statistics, posted a couple of times here, that mutual fund inflows failed to compensate for individual stock outflows to "retail ( little guy ) customers". It's only a 2:3 ratio, approximately. I would contend that the efforts of one ex- Solomon Brothers treasury exec. to open the social security trust fund to stock purchases is, in effect, a hostile takeover of our monies. In short, we aren't buying up the high price-to-book stocks fast enough to ensure the really big boys will get out before the next pre-recession/stock downturn, so they're just going to take the pension fund.

While the public may be fed the line that putting this fund into stocks improves the chances it will gain higher returns, all it is doing is forcing the funds to buy horribly overpriced assets, in many cases 40 or more to 1, cost in dollars to actual book value of the asset. I don't envision this extending the bull any longer than the investment bankers can divest themselves of these assets, then take it down and start the process over.

This pertains to gold in that as one's assets are turned to so much thin air, one needs even MORE insurance than previously supposed. IMVHO.


(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:31 - ID#269409)
@ Farfel
What planet do you live on? Do you EVER read any financial data re Quality of life indexes, or any of the data that goes into same? In teh Wall St. Journal or anywhere else? ( Oh yeah...I forgot...all the numbers are made up....and even my anecdotal sensory evidence decieves me... )

Quit lookin at the face on Mars and take a look around you son. I don't care if you live in Poduck or Silicon Valley. Things are better overall than they have been in decades, countrywide, Quality of Life issues certainly included....

Believe me..I remember hard times and these ain't it! ( Back to Rocket Science where even Engineer's have better horse sense about what surrounds them than delusional Farfel )

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:37 - ID#269409)
Re your 15:28, I can only repeat what I've said here before. Ask a Southeast Asian if they're doing better in weathering their current crises of currency devaluation and attendant hard times....

or whether they were better off in the "Good old days" of no foreign capital investment, coupled with no industrilaization, and no jobs, and mass starvation. Times are bad there.........and better than they were in the "Good old days" of pre Global investment. When I was a kid we were sponsoring starving South Korean children. Today, those children are eating well and bemoaning partial loss of their assets as they get their economy back on track after the "too quick" expansion.....

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:39 - ID#410198)
LGB,sounds like you are reciting Clintons State of the Union address
with all due respect,

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:47 - ID#252150)
LBG@My Lai
I regret posting my early A.M. tirade. I served in the RCAF in the 60's & was privleged to know many fine U.S. Servicemen & many of them were against the Viet Nam carnage. Regardless of the travesty that occured at My Lai,I should not have made a blanket condemnation. I was heartened to
see that the helicopter pilots were finally honoured recently for the bravery they displayed in rescuing some of the civilians.

As for not being able to stand success, I think it's great that many are prospering in the U.S. Unfortunately, they only comprise a small % of your population, & most are no more that 2 paychecks from poverty.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:49 - ID#269409)
@ Studio..thank you
I appreciated your comments greatly. I realize that I come off to many as a fundamentalist, closed minded, fanatical attack dog.....but let's face it, would a hardcore dogmatic stock bull be out of Mutual funds and buying metals?

I do try and look at all the facts and the big picture, and keep an open mind. The reason ( as you seem to precieve ) that I post in such strong advocacy terms, re US economy, long term prospects, that we seem to have a dearth of the "counterpoint" view here.

Many have called me shallow, without substance, without credentials, etc etc. Well, I've always been straightforward that I have no wish to pass myself off as an "analyst" technical or otherwise. I'm an investor. And as to shallow, the fact that I don't spend hundreds of hours delving deeply into ANOTHER's writings re the LBMA and BIS and how it all fits with Oil for Gold theories....

Well to me, myopia is shallowness. Rather than dwell on every theory that comes along, I attempt to digest the "big picture" in small bites....never being wedded to one view for life. At least not in the area of investment.

To me, "shallow" is the inability to look back on the very obvious results, of various economic models, throughour history. Those who can only see the bad today....and don't see it in realistic terms at that, scare me..... do they have no concept of what "bad times" are really about and what caused them? What constitues genuine human misery? When why and how it existed?

Anyway, again, thanks for the post.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:50 - ID#345176)

LGB: "quality of life better..."

On planet "earth", continent "America", region "USA", - which I live -

many except you are noticing that Americans are under seize from
"Youth Gangs", ... this decade's development!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:51 - ID#57232)
Japan and the Yen rescue -- what's up?
Donald, all: I gather the BOJ just bailed out the Yen, and the US watched. And, we have a 'Willard group' G7 meeting coming up with world bankers present, but Japan is not coming?

This seems ominous to me, and I think we should try to find what is happening. If faith is fading in Japan's Big Bang solution, then we could have a serious deflationary process looming in front of us -- possibly as severe as the recent SEAsian event back in October. This will be very bearish for gold bullion and stocks, unfortunately, since the Japanese could be tempted to sell their gold.

I have a few facts to add to this scenario -- much of it from a 'US News and World Report' issue, dated Apr 13, 1998:

1 ) The average Japanese has little debt and extensive savings in their postal system -- $11 trillion worth ( dollars? ) .

2 ) Foreign investment firms are eagerly ready to encourage the Japanese to invest outside Japan.

3 ) Foreign investers are interested in buying Japanese realestate at '10c on the dollar', according to the article.

4 ) Most of bad Japanese debt is in real estate, and 40% of that is controlled by the Yakuza, which are more than a match for any foreign investor who desires Japanese real estate.

5 ) Even local Japanese banks and other creditors have little success in collecting bad debts from the Yakuza, who are 8,000 strong, and firmly entrenched.

The last quote of the USN&WR article says it all: 'As the Japanese like to say, dealing with the Yakuza is like feeding a tiger. If you try to stop, the tiger will eat you'

My assessment is that the 'big bang' will fail to resolve the problems with bad real estate loans in Japan, simply because no one there can deal with the Yakuza -- certainly not foreign investors. So -- will many Japanese banks be forced to close their doors, as a consequence? I think so. Just imagine what it would be like in the USA if the Resolution Trust had roughly twice the bad debt they to deal with, and the Savings and Loans were all run by bonafide Yakuza-type gangsters.

I think we should be watching Japan very carefully -- our gold rally might make a turn for the worse if the Japanese are forced to sell their gold. If this happens, it will be interesting to see who does the buying. Probably some European Central banks, or China.

And -- are the hedge funds going to attack the Japanese Yen?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:52 - ID#269409)
@ James/Robnoel
James, I respect any man who served his country, and certainly any man who posts a retraction of that kinda comment. Accolades. If I had a Gold American Eagle for every comment I regret making here, I'd own the U.S. Gold reserves.

Robnoel, The same sentence with Clinton? Arrrgggggghhhhhh! ( Like HE had anything to do with the present prosperity!!! )

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:55 - ID#340302)
@LGB...with respect to your previous post... are certainly an odd contradiction, exhibiting a split personality struggling between extreme naivete and extreme cynicism.

I must say that the source of your "feel-good" statistics is not particularly reputable today, is it? Always remember Oct. 97...

After the "financial Waco" of Oct. '97, in which the American free financial markets were subverted in order to provide a false, elevated equilibrium, then it is quite obvious that establishment macro data is highly suspect today.

Of course...anything to keep a vertical bull sustained in its verticality mode, right?

However, at some point, the current establishment will lose its reins of could happen another month...another year..who knows? Yet, it will be very interesting to see how all these "feel-good" statistics will be re-interpreted by the new establishment in fulfillment of its new agenda.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:55 - ID#210235)
Just remember, you've been called an ear that bites, not an ear-biter.


jim c
(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:56 - ID#69280)
(Why are gold stocks anemic...)
It takes guts to play the start of any bull market. Most people are too busy sitting on the fence and only when prices skyrocket, do they react. When gold gets up to 320-350, I believe prices will be reflected in the price of stocks. Although, I thought stock prices were suppose to lead price of gold ( oh well, at least some companies are beginning to move ) . Also, most people like to buy overvalued stocks only ( look at the Dow ) . What a laugh.
When we all look back in a year from now, we'll be wishing we would have doubled our gold positions. IMVHO. Go Gold!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:58 - ID#345176)
@ FARFEL - your post on IBM which I posted on the Yahoo IBM

msg board drove IBM down $1 9/16. Lets be careful how we handle the markets, we two may cause a crash and be blamed for it !!!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:59 - ID#252150)
LGB@I'm not a certified GBF (Bold Bug Fanatic)
Although there are some who would say that I'm certifiably bonkers. I have only about 20% of my portfolio in AU stocks, but am looking to buy a good dip.
However, I do have a sense of forboding that this whole financial house of cards is eventually going to collapse...Now, if I could just get the timing worked out.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 15:59 - ID#269409)
Comex inventory's drop...what about Paper inventories hmmm?
All this hype here all the time about COMEX inventory's dropping, now here's an artcicle about how PAPER inventories can drop as well and with this shortage stock prices should soar because.......what?? What?? It's ACTUAL paper we're talking about? Ohhhhh NEVER MIND!

Monday April 13, 3:39 pm Eastern Time

Paper stocks up on whisper of low March inventory

NEW YORK, April 13 ( Reuters ) - Shares of U.S. pulp and paper makers rose Monday amid speculation the industry's
end-of-March inventories were below the seasonal average.

``Normally seasonal inventories at the end of March drop around 70,000 tons,'' said Lehman Brothers analyst James Flicker.
``Now it looks like they ( end-of-March inventories ) will be down at least 200,000 tons.''
higher prices for their products.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:05 - ID#345176)
@ LGB re: paper stock inventories down...

May be due to government's excess paper demand for currency printing ?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:05 - ID#266105)

Kinda quiet volume in the SA adrs.

Farfel, I've been wracking my brain for days
trying to construct the bearish gold case
which cannot be recast or deconstrued into,
actually, the bullish reasons by you, so
far to no avail. But don't get overconfident,
I haven't given up.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:10 - ID#25171)
If JAPAN has been doing anything on GOLD recently it is buying.
Before they sell any Gold they have so much treasuries to unload that long bond rates will go up to 7.5%
If you see this happening, stocks certificates will not even be worth their weight of paper and japanese investors will gladly buy directly the Gold from their own CB .
Gold coins sales in JAPAN were up 80% in the last Q of 1997

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:11 - ID#340302)
@LGB...always remember one thing, my Wall Street Bull friend...
...I never denied there has been a substantive improvement in YOUR OWN quality of life over the past several years.

Certainly, committed Wall Street Bulls have made huge sums of money...and great riches for the privileged few allow them to overlook the quality of life deficits for the many in this country.

For example, the roads and highways of this country ( and many other infrastructure components ) continue to deteriorate at an alarming rate.
However, for those who can afford first class airfare and/or private jets, it's not an inconvenience, is it? Nor are they about to notice the significant decrease in manpower servicing the airlines ( as I alluded to in an earlier post ) ....never affects first-class or the private jets, does it?

I live in Bel Air, California...and it is nothing short of amazing the extent of road deteriorationover the last few years in even the nicest neighborhoods in America.

Why is this great infrastructure collapse occurring across the country?

Because in spite of Wall Street's enormous wealth, America's corporate giants are the new welfare recipients in America ( this little fact does not show up in LGB's official litany of ""feel-good stats" ) ...hardly paying any taxes through all variety of offshore tax scams while at the same time bleeding the American middle class by extorting all variety of tax benefits from the government.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:18 - ID#269409)
@ Prometheus....your retirement fund theory
The one comment I would make is, if your scenario re the propoposed Social Security changes is being done for those reasons...wouldn't it make sense for them to make mutual funds the mandatory investment vehicle?

Yet that's not the proposal, and I seriously doubt it will ever become the proposal. The proposal is that some portion of the recipients contributions be allowed the OPTION of investing in mutual funds, Bond funds, money market funds, etc. Esentially a self directed IRA kinda situation. I just can't envision a mandatory stock mutual fund risk scenario ever being approved in this type legislation. I think the chances oi such are slim and none.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:20 - ID#410198)
LGB...:)...hows the heat in the kitchen....but really with all due respect your 15:25
.post was hes pitch,what can I say,enough from me you have bigger fish to fry in the kitchen of your choice

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:20 - ID#340302)
@ALL...Corollary to my previous post: THE BIG ONE!! and wife and I just saw this movie, THE BIG ONE, by film-maker and corporate gadfly, Michael Moore...certainly one of the best feature films making the circuit today.

It is a MUST-SEE film in order to get a better perspective on "the quality of life" ( or lack thereof ) in America today.



Gusto Oro
(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:21 - ID#377235)
LGB, any thoughts on silver for the rest of the month? --AG

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:22 - ID#57232)
'Flight to safety' in the US markets
All: Despite the weakness of US corporate earnings, markets are not fully rational as we know. Also -- foreign investors fleeing more troubled waters will find a safe haven -- regardless of how it looks here -- if it looks worse elsewhere.

In this light, I reviewed the trends in the 1929 era, versus the current era. In 1929 the US markets were also the strongest, and the last to collapse, probably very similar to what is happening now. I compared 1929 era and 1990's era market blowoffs, using 'Price rate of change', in percent. My reasoning was that this would show the market mania behavior better than total long term market growth, which overall is greater now than it was in the 20's. I do not have comparative info on P/E ratios, earnings growth, or market volume, but I do have one fact that I got out of my new W95 software upgrade: The final price blowoff surge in June 1928 - June 1929 was approximately 8 times stronger than the most recent price blowoff surge in Oct 96 to Mar 97, on a percent rise basis. Extending the time to a one year perod with two surges still would indicate a 4 to 1 differential.

So -- if I am right, we are nowhere near a final blowoff stage equivalent to the great 1929 era - yet, anyway.

I would be very interested in other opinions about this, as I think our US market bull has a more than a year to go before a major correction, barring major external shocks. It is also very likely that we will have a concomitant gold rally by the professionals who are starting to 'flee to the exits'.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:23 - ID#253418)
Pretty odd day
Pretty odd day - maybe due to London being closed. With these higher metal prices I would have and did expect a rally in the shares. No dice


(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:23 - ID#269409)
@ Farfel
Anecdotal evidence has little or no meaning. Besides if that was a basis for my opinion, I make short business trips to 11 different regions in the country all year long, and in all 11 areas, things have improved greatly over where they were a few years ago.

That's why stats..... do indeed become important. Lot's of quality of life issues are deteriorating. But in many cases this is due to increasing pressures from a burgeouning population. The commute some of us suffer through is a good example.

In any case.....dude......

Don't care, buy more Gold!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:26 - ID#266105)

This seems ominous to me, and I think we should try to find what is happening. If faith
is fading in Japan's Big Bang solution, then we could have a serious deflationary
process looming in front of us -- possibly as severe as the recent SEAsian event back
in October. This will be very bearish for gold bullion and stocks, unfortunately, since
the Japanese could be tempted to sell their gold.


Some Japanese guy on the tube last nite stated the growth
in Japanese money supply over the past 12 months is equivalent
to 20-30% percent of Japanese GDP. For comparison, a comparable
increase in U.S. money supply ( if true ) with a GDP of say $8T
would equate to another $2T+ floating around or $165B/mo.

Milton Friedman holds that inflation everywhere, anytime,
is a monetary phenomenom, as in printing too much money in relation
to that warranted by actualities. Of course, there's some debate
about that tenet but, if history serves guide, there appears
to be strong case made for at least some linkage.

Like, spray enough of the stuff around and it eventually
catches fire, again, if history serves guide.

Of course, if that amount of Japanese money creation is simply
replacing that evaporating from both sides of the balance sheets
as bad loans are realized and [del] then I don't know what to
make of it, or what is going on nor could anyone, really.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:29 - ID#230244)
Just got back to Canada after spending the winter in Florida, I new the local grocery operators where taken excessive margins. Here are some examples.I would venture to say that fruits and vegetables are 40 to 50% higher in Florida versus Ontario. Prices paid today stated in U.S. funds.
sugar .69/lb lemon .14cts ea.product of U.S. half price from what I paid last week.minneola oranges .49/lb for those clculating beeg ground lean 1.19/lb Avocado .35 ct.ea. about third of the price.This is going to blow up one day.Hidden by cheap gas and electronics.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:29 - ID#307364)
Midwesterner and other Allegheny Mines followers
Re my post dated Thu Apr 02 1998 17:50

I don't know if this may be useful, but here is some explanation about the content of the post mentioned above.

Hydrothermal mechanism is similar to a coffee machine or a percolator. The cold water is sucked to the heater element ( heat source and minerals source ) . Then the water is heated to the boiling point. The vapor pressure pushes hot water through the vertical pipe ( alteration pipe ) to the top of the coffee machine ( at sea floor ) and drops water in the filter basket filled with coffee to infuse the coffee ( minerals precipitation occurs in contact with cold water ) .

The solution carried by the hot stream is a mixture of water, acids and dissolved minerals. When the solution is cooled, crystals of minerals ( like snow ) precipitate, fall and accumulate on the sea floor to form a polymetallic deposit.

When a volcanic eruption happens, it recovers the minerals layer ( deposit ) with lava. Many minerals layers may be deposited during the millions of years of that geological process. That means the Three Mile Bay conductor can be a vertical polymetallic deposit and on the sides of the conductor, there may be many horizontal layers of minerals.

How many tons? Imagine a deposit layer measuring 600 yards ( 1800 ft ) long by 200 yards ( 600 ft ) wide and 3 yards ( 9 ft ) thick, at 3 tons per cubic yard, 1,000,000 tons of minerals are there for every thickness layer of 9 feet. One million tons is enough mineral to feed a mill with 1000 tons/day during 3 years of production.

If Allegheny Mines IP survey detected something, it is because it is close to the surface ( 150ft deep maximum ) and there are probably many layers of that kind between the surface and 3000 feet.


(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:30 - ID#269409)
@ Gusto Oro...Silver
What!! You want me to venture an opinion on a PM related question? How dare you!

Seriosuly, I'm baffled. The option expiry last week, did not produce the decisive move expected in either direction. COMEX inventories are still falling nicely, but I have to give some credence to Kaplan's comments re Producers & insudtrial users being short by a wide margin, over longs. Then we have Silver showing relative weakness considering Gold's ( and Platinum's ) strong showing the past few days. I don't buy the Merril Lynch BS about Buffet being a seller...if anything I bet he's still quietly accumulating, and perhaps a few of his peers as well.

IMHO, Silver will not make a decisive break above $7.00 until May or June, but it WILL make a break..... Best I can do for now, I'm a long term bull but doubt we'll see action in April that greatly breaks below $6.20 or above $6.80

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:32 - ID#269409)
@ Gusto Oro...SIlver
PS, India purhases down substantially according to report given at Silver Institue meeting last week, however, this may be a temporary situation.....traditional buying season coming up.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:35 - ID#57232)
Japanese gold buying
Sequin: I am aware that the Japanese were buying gold. That fits with their long-term approach, which is undoubtedly to move away from the US dollar, and increase their gold reserves to what they should have been, if the US hadn't discouraged them from buying for so many years.

What I am describing is an Indonesia - grade meltdown, perhaps precipitated by a Hedge fund attack on the Yen. Not long ago, I would have said that this was unlikely, given the assets of the average Japanese. But -- recently we have learned how much the average Japanese distrust their own Japanese bureacracy, which is riddled with ( Yakuza ) corruption. So -- the Japanese financial system may be a house of cards, waiting for the smallest breeze to bring it down. If you do not believe me that a Japanese meltdown would be bearish for gold ( and the world markets ) , you should read some of Rudi Dornbusch's comments.

I hope I am wrong about this -- and eagerly await news from the International bankers. I will not add to my gold position until I see some resolution to the Japan situation.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:36 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.99

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:38 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .278

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:39 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 48.65

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:40 - ID#341189)
We agree. ( :- ) )

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:48 - ID#57232)
Japanese Inflation or Deflation? -- Deflation much more likely.
2BRO2B: The Japanese are desperately increasing their core money supply ( monetary base, as we call it in the US ) . But -- the multiplier is dropping, I believe. And -- much of their money is going into the black hole of debt, or escaping to other countries because of the low interest. Now 0%? One very telling point made in the last week or so on Kitco ( sharefin, I think ) is that the average Japanese refuse to spend their money or incur debt, reminiscent of the great depression period in the USA.

Until the Japanese leaders come to terms with their debt problems, they are at risk for financial implosion.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:48 - ID#26793)
IMF seeks urgent Japanese reforms; "even zero growth will be hard to achieve"

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:50 - ID#26793)
The rest of the world should run so smooth!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:52 - ID#57232)
Will Japanese Public savings save the Japanese financial system?
Donald: You are the banking expert. Any comments about the Japan situation -- ideas about what the Willard G7 meeting about. The Japanese are not represented?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:54 - ID#238295)
Farfel : Gold investors have indeed been conditioned like Pavlov's dogs to assume that all decent rallies will be followed by big reactions. Sell the rallies still is the mantra of many. But only those who recognize the changing paradigm will make any real money in this emerging bull market.

The gold stoks seem to have corrected their overbought condition relative to bullion. If POG jumps again tomorrow, the gold shares will tag along.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:56 - ID#26793)
Japan likely seller of $12 billion U.S. Treasury bills today. Needed to raise cash.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:56 - ID#410198)
Donald,if you posted this before,sorry, worth posting again.PPT

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:56 - ID#340302)
@JTF, 2BRO...Japanese and their relationship to GOLD...
In the event of a Japanese financial meltdown ( beyond the existent negative scenario ) , it is simply implausible to imagine they will sell any gold.


First, to date, despite the existent meltdown, they have not sold any.

Second, with plans underway to create an Asian Currency Standard, it is imperative that gold reserves back a portion of the new currency in order to give it global credibility. If anything, one would expect further accumulations of gold by the Japanese rather than any substantive sales.

Third, the Japanese had a good and recent opportunity to view the two non-paper financial assets that retained their value best during the S.E. Asian currencies debacles....namely gold and silver.

Fourth, people tend to place higher value on things that have both stability and historical proof of value retention...namely gold and silver. The American dollar, on the other hand, has had wide swings in value since the dawn of American hegemony.

Fifth, there is a superabundance of American paper instruments in Japan versus a relative scarcity of precious metals...if the Japanese are compelled to go into their "closets" and toss out unnecessary items to maintain their wealth, it is only natural to expect they will first jettison the huge pile of super abundant U.S. treasuries and dollar holdings.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:57 - ID#258129)
JTF - 'Flight to safety'
I think, you are right. No crash. Correction in calendar. Will be seen as an great buying opportunity by majority.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 16:59 - ID#340302)
@OLD reference to goldbugs...
...your Pavlov's dogs analogy is perfect.

Or you might make a good comparison to B.F. Skinner and his positive/negative reinforcement experiments as they relate to human behavior.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:00 - ID#57232)
You and Carl agree!
Donald: That is hilarious! I thought you two were talking about some highpowered, exotic point of great sigificance, and you were just comparing numbers. Important numbers, nontheless!

I think your mutual dialogue brings out one highly significant point, and that is that agreement is possible, even on Kitco.

Hope all is well in your part of the world. My Windows 95 is mostly installed, but I am still behind on e-mail duties and some other tasks still not fully functional.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:03 - ID#201238)
comex data

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for April 13
Gold 634,304 + 16,075 troy ounces
Silver 88,108,692 + 1,230,870 troy ounces
Copper 112,680 + 149 short tons

Note - all of the comex rise was in eligible stocks - in the past such a move forcast a dip in gold prices - will it this time?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:05 - ID#26793)
I like the theme posted here this weekend. It boils down to two financial points of view. The BIS point of view, hardnosed old fashioned, gold oriented. The IMF point of view, print money, paper over the cracks in the plaster. The BIS represents the creditor class, The IMF the debtor class. Sort of like the world has come to the position the US was in in the 1896 election. William Jennings Bryan "Cross of Gold" etc.

We are at a crisis point and only one can be the winner. This time, rather than just America, the entire world is at stake.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:05 - ID#57232)
Gold sales in Korea and Indonesia -- not too long ago.
Farfel: How do you explain the gold sales in Korea? Hundreds of tonnes. The Koreans made the mistake of copying the Japanese economic system.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:08 - ID#316193)

Newsletter for April 10, "GOLD: Both the short and long term
trends are favorable as the June contract has now closed above the
key 311 level and has completed a major base formation."

Maybe Louie will have him on the show again soon. Nah, this
probably cancelled anything like that from happening.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:13 - ID#26793)
Banking expert? Not this week. I am now a fertilizer, crabgrass preventer, weed killer expert. Ask me anything.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:15 - ID#256250)
A proposal to bring the gold market into the new century.
A proposal to bring the gold market into the new century.

Last night someone mentioned the new UBS site. They pointed out how the site was nicely designed and aimed at increasing gold sales. I agree it is.

BUT, we are the internet generation about to embark on the new millenium. Remember the POG's fade. Those circular disks that kids bought and sold ( apparently in the billions ) . Apparently making millions for the marketing companies that sold them to the public.

What I suggest, is a GOLDEN POGs revolution. Specification will be one-tenth of an ounce and one-twentieth of an ounce of gold. Every producing mine in the world would be encourage to produce these POGs. They would initially be very simple ( stamped with date, name of mine, and a simple design or logo ) .

I would love to have a collection from historic mines from around the world.

Cost would be say $31 + 50% for the one-tenth ounce version ( at today's spot )
And $15 +50% for the and one-twentieth version ( at today's spot )


Children could trade and play with them with their friends ( remember they are much cheaper that most toys ) , make collections,

Adults could trade them like baseball cards or set up displays that demonstrate the history of civilization.

SOMETHING like my example is what the world gold council and the world mining companies NEEDS to do. GET real hardly anyone knows about the beauty and beautiful history of GOLD.

Think about it. If John Q. could spend $20 a week and buy a interesting golden POG for himself, his children or a friend HE WOUL DO IT. LET's get on the marketing bang wagon "GOLD COMPANIES" --- you are selling gold almost exactly as you did in 1849!!



(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:18 - ID#25171)
korean gold sales. WHY?
Koreans were tricked into selling their Gold by their government . Japanese people hold their politicians in such contempt that it is highly unlikely that they would sacrifice their household insurance policy ( i.e. GOLD ) with the same patriotic enthousiasm as Koreans who think that any weakness will be exploited by the North.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:20 - ID#26793)
IMF tells India how to run its country. Trouble ahead.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:22 - ID#340302)
@JTF...I will answer your question about Korean GOLD sales.... asking you a series of thought-provoking questions...

First...who suggested to the Koreans that they should sell their gold, ballyhoo this announcement all over the media, thereby driving the Price of Gold downward? ( Hint: the gentleman's initials are G.S. ) .

Second...what renowned famous billionaire is now considered to be an active purchaser in the precious metals markets? ( Hint: the gentleman's initials are G.S. )

Third...after the Koreans collected the gold from their people, what did they then proceed to do with this gold? In other words, did they keep it or sell it? And if they sold any of it, who bought it? ( Hint: the NEW GOLD PARADIGM says central bank purchases are good for gold...and central bank sales are even better! ) that some approximation of economic stabilization has occurred finally in Korea, are the Koreans still selling their gold or are they purchasing new quantities? ( Hint: in which direction is the Price of Gold moving? ) .

Fifth...what country is one of the leading exponents of a new Asian Currency Standard ( which must necessarily be supported by gold reserves ) ?
( Hint: the country's name starts with a "K." ) .



(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:22 - ID#253418)
Arden - Thanks
Thanks for the COMEX numbers - doesn't look very constructive for tomorrow's opening. But them are the facts.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:23 - ID#26669)
Farfel, some economic links for you
Some of these might interest you. As for me I prefer to study chicken entrails. Today the chicken livers I studied ( fried with a side order of jalapenos ) tell me that maybe buying more gold last week wasn't such a bad idea. But the jalapenos told me to hold off buying this week...burp!

National Budget Simulation Game

American Council for Capital Formation

Macroeconomic Advisors...see its monthly list of indicators

US Monitary policy page FRBM

US Bureau of Economic Analysis page

bankruptcy data link

Editorial about welfare reform issues

Homelessness info page ( also heavily editorialized )

(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:24 - ID#26793)
IMF tells Russia how to run its country. Lashes out at low tax collections.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:24 - ID#373403)
Gold up $2.70
FDPMX was unchanged. hmmmmm......

(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:26 - ID#57232)
The Japanese people probably will not sell their gold
Sequin: I agree with you on that point -- unless the Japanese bureaucrats find a way to get their hands on it. And, as I recall, the amount of gold they hold outside official Japanese hands is substantial.

I doubt that the South Korean people voluntarily gave all of their gold to their government. They may have been coerced.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:31 - ID#341189)
@Donald & JTF, Donald's 17:05
Donald, Your observation about IMF and BIS and debtor and creditor classes is simple, penetrating and brilliant. I was just thinking this afternoon about why, for example LGB, and others see such a different world than I do. I was comparing my experiences as a young man with those of my children and their friends. The big difference that came to mind is that their friends are in debt up to their ears. Yes, they work and go to school and live pretty well, but for the most part, their futures are morgaged. Makes a big difference in one's point of view.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:37 - ID#340302)
@JIMS...rise in eligible COMEX stocks is very bullish for POG...
...under the NEW GOLD PARADIGM.

...again, you focus on the sales side and fail to ask the most significant question...who is purchasing? ( Hint: note the difference between eligible and registered ) .


Looking good...looking REAL good.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:39 - ID#373403)
I feel a currency crisis in the works.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:39 - ID#57232)
Farfel - question for you
Who might be involved on a hedge fund attack on Japan?

Who might be interested in buying cheap gold?

Hint: the initials are G.S. ( etal? )

My point is that as B. Buckler and others have said, gold is a 'political metal', unfortunately, and subject to deflationary surprises unless you happen to be in the country where the collapse is occuring, such as South Korea. I sometimes wonder why I persist in being a gold bug, when there are other precious metals that are easier to understand. But -- the insurance and the eventual rewards are admittedly substantial.

Buy the way, I only have about 1/3 of my liquid assets in gold/gold stocks, awaiting proof of a rally. How about you?

silver plate
(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:41 - ID#288433)
Always interesting to read your postings and ongoing jousts with LGB but didn't know until today that we live in the same part of town.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:46 - ID#17796)
I have a sense of uneasiness with regard to world currency and financial markets. Bank mergers occur suddenly ( hide derivative loses? ) ,stock markets rise and fall at extremes, Japan and S.E.Asia reflect impending economic disaster, IMF preaching w/out enough money, the Euro, Willard Group meeting,G-7 meeting, etc.,etc. This all reflects a convergence of numerous events any one of which could cause substantial change in the status quo. My uneasiness results from a lack of knowledge of what is really going on. Another was correct-we live in interesting times. Actually, this is a source of excitement-at least for the time being. Tom

(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:51 - ID#256250)
Arden not always... Rmember they pulled this game in early March.
Date: Mon Mar 09 1998 17:14

345,928 0 1,382 -1,382 -21,830 322,716
134,886 0 426 -426 21,830 156,290
480,814 0 1,808 -1,808 0 479,006

0 -153 36,312,838
1,778,012 153 54,484,469
1,778,012 0 90,797,307

As you can see gold eligibles rose 21,830 while silver eligibles rose 1,778,012 on Mar 09 1998. I the price did drop briefly in the next three days but then started heading right back up.

I believe this is a old game that they have been playing successfully for a long time ( until March 9th ) . As I said then and I repeat it now, its a game of manipulation but now we see it coming. I suspect that a sea change has occurred and they will no longer be able to threaten prices lower. Heaven knows maybe even the Japanese will buy gold instead of bonds.


(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:54 - ID#266105)
@Wall Street-- score: Bears 1, Bulls 1


Hyped SA adrs-- drooy, rangy up 2-4%. hgmcy unch. hmm

Cabeza de Queso-- lihry unch.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 17:54 - ID#340302)
@JTF...I cannot concur with you on this one...
...every indication suggests "the cat's out of the bag" amongst the big money gold purchasers. The proof: we are in the early stages of a gold trend shift with a new focus upon gold purchases instead of sales.

G.S. has probably accumulated as much as he wants at this point...I do not think he can "scare" Japan into dumping its gold in the same manner he manipulated the Koreans.

Now, dumping U.S. treasuries...that's an entirely different story!!

( Hint: which billionaire is rumored to have taken a major short position on both the Hong Kong Dollar and its peg, the U.S. buck? ) .

Also, in answer to your previous query, I hold almost 40-50% of my net liquid worth in gold ( physical ) and several gold/silver stocks.

I continue to BUY MORE at opportune moments and adhere to a buy and hold strategy. Thankfully, when the gold bull kicks into full, frenzied gear, I am in a position to increase significantly my position and take advantage of the inevitable mania. To date, we have witnessed very mild gold market optimism...nothing approaching mania.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:00 - ID#23484)
Silver Dollars

Does anyone know of a web site where I would be able to find numismatic prices on the old US silver dollar coins? Also, does anyone
know what the actual silver content per the Morgan silver dollars is?

Thanks in advance for your help!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:01 - ID#57232)
Your 17:05
Donald, Carl: Donald, I just saw your post about the BIS and IMF. What you say was true also in the 70's. It was the IMF and the USA against the BIS, and the BIS held some sort of debt recall threat over the USA to force the US into a more pro-gold stance. I think much of this transpired about the time of the 1975 Rambouillet conference, which was to rewrite the Bretton Woods agreement.

I would love to know what the BIS had over the US. Perhaps they still do, and are using it now to get some control over the actions of the IMF and the US. Could it be that the gold in Fort Knox actually belongs to the BIS?

Unfortunately I do not think the BIS has the clout to make the EURO 100% backed by gold, or something similar. My guess is that the outcome of a current battle between the BIS and the US/IMF will be a rise in the price of gold, but not to the degree of what happened in the 70's. We may have a bumpy road, however, if something happens to Japan on the way.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:02 - ID#340302)
@SILVER PLATE...hello, neighbor...and if you think Bel Air roads...
...are miserable, you should see how bad they are in So. Central?

I think you will agree that the sorry state of the infrastructure in this country does not mirror the purported prosperity described by the Establishment's leading economic indicators.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:07 - ID#253153)
Dollar sales
Does anyone know if the federal reserve sold dollars today on behalf of the bank of Japan ?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:08 - ID#270247)

(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:09 - ID#253246)
CAU Montana geography

CAU sporting 100% gain since the 3/19 low of 5/8. McDonald JV
announcement must be getting closer.

Does anyone know if the McDonald project is in the same part of
Montana where Stillwater mining operations are located. Would
Stillwater be able to put the cash together to JV this project. Any

(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:10 - ID#26793)
They apparently sold $12 billion of Treasury Bills for Japan but will never say so directly.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:10 - ID#269409)
@ Saul..SIlver dollars
US Silver dollars of 1878-1934 vinatge have approx. ( Eight tenths ) .8 Oz. of silver.

As to price guides online, try

Keep in mind the following. The prices you find at this link are for certified BRILLAINT UNCORCULATED dollars, and are retail prices.

For wholesale, try "Coin Dealer Newsletter" which does not have online prices but will send you a copy for a small fee, for both "raw" ( Uncertified ) coins or Certified. ( "Blusheet" for Certified, "Greysheet" for uncertified )

Common date Silver dollars in Very good or better condition sell for approximately $7.50 to $10.00 retail, and in the $7.50 range wholesale ( except for 1921 Morgan dollars and 1922-1925 Peace dollars which sell for a bit less as they are ultra common high mintage )

(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:11 - ID#57232)
We agree to disagree
Farfel: I doubt that you and I are all that different in our approach to gold investing -- you are not 100% invested in gold, either.

Why not use that formidable intellect of yours ( and your economics connections ) , and find out what secret weapon the BIS has to control the USA? It is some sort of debt instrument that is perpetually being rolled over, according to Anthony C. Sutton. He probably knows. If we understand this, we may better understand what is going on behind the scenes.

Interesting times, aren't they?

Aragorn III
(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:12 - ID#212323)
Tolerentl ...perhaps you missed my Apr 10, 16:27 to you...
Sure to raise a smile as you are no rock thrower nor ash generator.

I thoroughly enjoyed your post the first time ( which flagged our kinship in my mind ) , and appreciate the recent repost. I reprint your words here that I found particularly keen.
"Where there is no dream, the people perish. We must collectively provide
hope, and challenge the human spirit. Life is effort, when any
individual no longer believes this they begin to wither. ...

Instead of acting like children that shy away from the dark, let us move
together, step by step, hand in hand, into a world which is illuminated
by sensitivity, intellect and compassion. Let the global populace
embrace a universal sense of community through the individual gift that
each member of humanity brings into the world." --K.S.K.

The day approaches that I will enhance your e-gold ( tm ) account with some small tribute ( well to the right of the decimal ) for your prose. I maintain every intention to establish an account soon in capitulation to honest banking.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:16 - ID#26793)
Let me add to your uneasiness by pointing out that there are less than 20 months to combine their computer systems AND fix the Y2K problems AND deal with the Euro computer changes in their European offices.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:16 - ID#401460)
TYoung (Uneasiness)

Bank mergers, timing is very interesting. "Why now?" was the question of the day.

1 ) YR2K easier and cheaper to handle one than two.

2 ) Bank One "Jobs will be lost" here, just on the local news, "they may be made up later with growth" Sure, in about 5 years.
There will be massive layoffs in the banking industry - that is were the new found money, to be created out of the merger, will be found.

3 ) They see the clouds on the horizon - what better way to hedge your bank - merge @ high stock valuations before depreciation hits. Just like the Chase ( Rockefellers ) splitting their stock - only makes sense.

4 ) Add Derivatives, Asia, Euro, Japan and who knows what else, and consolidation/ downsizing of payroll and other expenses makes even more sense.

Just another Canary dead in the mine shaft.


(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:20 - ID#269409)
@ Saul....Silver dollars
Sorry, forgot to include link for "Coin Dealer Newsletter" the most used idustry wholesale price guide.

Remember it's just a "guide" as actual transaction prices vary widely, depending on a wide number of factors.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:22 - ID#269409)
@ Saul...Silver dollar prices
Unbelievable brain dead, one last time, here's the link

(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:23 - ID#253153)
Dollars sales by BOJ---Donald
Thanks for the info. If your info is correct then the deflationary trend is really intensifying which is super BULLISH for GOLD. Sales of dollars by Japan will reduce their money supply . Funny , we are finding ourself in a period of time where the CB are deflating their own economies and don't even know it.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:24 - ID#317193)
the Dow is way to high with the bond market set to go much lower. Change,my freind, change-she is a coming. Tom P.S. keep up the posts

(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:45 - ID#401460)
On Bank Mergers

Sidman this AM on CNBC " The larger these banks the more they are owned by the Government, they are to big for the government to let them fail the government will have to back them all the way." FDIC get ready.


silver plate
(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:46 - ID#288433)
Farfel - Hi again
Mulholland has had some good patches recently but Benedict Canyon and others are a mess. LGB reminds me of a fellow enjoying the "screw" of the moment but not thinking ahead about who will take care of the coming baby. So we have the "good times" credit bunch and the debit worriers

( gold bugs? ) . I became enamored of the yellow stuff in my pre-teen days

reading about pirates and chests of gold.

Intrigued by your handle - the wife says it was a comic strip and I say it was a food prepared by my mother. go gold

(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:50 - ID#39828)
Auric, it will be interesting week.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:50 - ID#340302)
F*'s Evaluation of the GOLD market...
Although the price of gold had a slightly encouraging uptick today, the XAU proved to be a much weaker performer. Volumes were unusually low in some cases. It seems many investors were throwing their monies into the soaring banking stocks today in the belief that the wave of mergers is auguring great things to come rather than simply masking all variety of substantive and massive global losses. Bull mania is truly blind, just like love!

Again, the low volume upswing in gold is bullish for the metal, suggesting some strength on the basis of entirely professional interest. When even fairly decent volume arises in the sector, the up move should prove to be explosive. For those who do not already have their "BUY" points firmed with their brokers, then I suggest they will find it very dificult to get on board the bull train anywhere near their desired points of entry once the bull races forward. The next significant upspike will probably occur on relatively moderate volume as it does not take much volume lately to move these XAU stocks.

Again, I continue to believe that we are just around the bend of the much heralded wave of consolidation in the gold industry. However, unlike the marriages occurring in the banking sector, the gold consolidation wave will be a very healthy one whose ultimate goal will be reduction in the production of the commodity. Less supply can only enhance the value of the metal. On the other hand, banking sector consolidation is not occuring in order to reduce the supply of an overabundant commodity ( when was the last time you stood in a SHORT bank line? ) ...instead, its primary aim is most certainly the camouflage of impending extraordinary losses incurred in various economic weak regions of the world ( S.E. Asia ) and country ( the El Nino Effect ) ...not to mention Wall Street's continuous campaign to throw hundreds of thousands more workers into the streets, thereby precluding full employment in the country and its inevitable consequence, inflation ( However, although this ongoing human tragedy might succeed against inflation, it will most likely fail against that old Wall Street nemesis, stagflation, that is now threatening to rear its ugly head ) .

Yes, everytime that employment report comes out and indicates no significant rise in employment or even a nice rise in unemployment, the market celebrates by increasing in value at least 10%. Remember...this perversely twisted celebration is deemed a good thing by Wall Street Bulls ( Now, who was it again who said Goldbugs are the ones that celebrate the awful economic developments in our society? Yeah, right! ) .



(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:53 - ID#410114)
200 Day MA
Gold has closed above the 200 d MA

(Mon Apr 13 1998 18:53 - ID#269245)
When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:03 - ID#269191)
JP the sales are sterilized.
The BOJ sells yen for dollars and then uses open market operations
to put the yen back in circulation.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:05 - ID#26793)
Perhaps the XAU had moved too far ahead of the metals. With gold up today and the XAU/Spot ratio at .278 that is a healthier relationship than on Wednesday when the spot ratio was .288. Silver may be the weakness in the XAU rather than gold.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:06 - ID#339274)
Haggis or anyone else?
Are you familiar with the Longwood project in New Zealand?



(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:13 - ID#269245)
Hint - I did not write this
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.--Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:14 - ID#340302) can the XAU move too far ahead of the metals...
...when the DOW and Nasdaq have moved exponentially too far ahead of the real earnings of the companies forming their indices?

Again, I submit that there must be some correlation...either the DOW and Nasdaq are preposterously over-valued...or else the XAU is ridiculously undervalued.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:14 - ID#269245)
would someone please erase that copywrite thing in my last post!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:20 - ID#340302) other corollary to previous post...
...the historical XAU/spot ratio strikes me as invalid today.

If the Dow and Nasdaq can be untethered to past historical logic ( on the basis of New Paradigm doublespeak ) , then why must the gold market remain tethered to its "normal" ratios?

In other words, I reject the notion of a normal XAU/spot ratio today. In the NEW GOLD PARADIGM, the XAU should be able to redefine what is a normal XAU/spot ratio...there should be no historical ceilings placed upon these or any other gold market related ratios.

You catch my drift?



(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:21 - ID#253153)
Dollar sales by --DEJ
No, when the BOJ or the federal reserve ( on behalf of BOJ ) sells T Bills they receive dollars which they sell on the open market in exchange for yens. During inflationary times the reverse is true. Because we have entered a runaway deflationary period , the BOJ has no choice but to sell dollars in order to prop up the yen. Eventually ,if they keep selling dollars they will run out and then they won't have any other tools to protect their currency.. There is basic capital shortage in Japan and these yens probably will be pumps into the Japanese banking systems as well as buying GOLD.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:23 - ID#340302)
@MYRMIDON...thanks for your encouragement and help...
...I like your revision and please feel free to post it.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:25 - ID#340302)
OOPS! Previous post is an accidental repost...
...of an earlier message.


(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:35 - ID#304282)
SF Fed says Markets are "very high"

(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:36 - ID#210253)
Stillwater/Canyon Resources

Lincoln, Montana is the proposed site of CAU's McDonald project. I don't know where SWC's platinum mine is. Canyon will most likely need a partner for this 5 to 6 million ounce mine. More difficult than financing is a very active environmental movement in the area. Mine permitting hinges on politics rather than commerce. At 5/8ths CAU was trading at about 60% of book value. CAU's industrial minerals division is the hidden asset of this company. Hecla uses a similar strategy as Canyon in this regard, and maybe there is some synergy between them. Hecla is located in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho. Good Luck!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:38 - ID#269245)
These are some of the best ones...
He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

For protecting them ( troops ) , by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:

For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:

For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.

He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.

The rest are at

(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:40 - ID#26793)
A previously recognized problem with the XAU/Spot Ratio is that it has spent its entire 15 years in what is now recognized as a gold bear market. On its first day of life, December 19, 1983, the ratio was .295. Most did not know that we had entered a gold bear at that time. We now that .295 is toward the high end of its range. Of course we did not know it then.

I agree that the XAU can come untethered from its previous ratio history but I would expect that to happen when everyone agreed that we were in a gold bull market, perhaps several years from now. It seems less likely a worry today.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:42 - ID#316193)
Steven Kaplan is Sounding Verrrry Cautious

(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:43 - ID#176200)
Boy, I love those words! More people here in the U.S. should read this and just maybe they would wake up from the DOW stuper and get PISSED!
God, Guns and Guts are what started this country and now SLICK, the FED
and WALL STREET will bring it to its knees... IMHO

not speaking for my employer.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:45 - ID#228128)
Silver Baron
You asked a question about Marrak Gold earlier today. I believe that is the name of the fictitious company that Polarbear created in his golden-eagle piece. I forgot the title, but its about how a merger with a commpany like DROOY would be a major improvement for the bottom line .

(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:45 - ID#288295)
JP @ Japan Bond Sales
Here's an article that mentions the Japan bond sales:

(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:46 - ID#269245)
And soon, the dawn of a new era...
In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:48 - ID#288295)

Thanks; I read the POLARBEAR article some time ago, but didn't make the connection when my friend asked...I'll pass on the story.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:50 - ID#269245)
Open Loop - it is good to hear that someone is awake out there!
- c

(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:52 - ID#210114)
Move to Precious Metals as US$ weakens.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Mon Apr 13 1998 19:59 - ID#384350)
Troy Ounces per Kilo???
Can anyone tell me how many troy ounces there are in 1 kilo?

Thanks in advance.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:02 - ID#28994)
United States of Europe
In Sept. 1946, in Zurich Switzerland, Winston Churchill issued a call for a United States of Europe. He called for France and the just defeated Germany to lead the way. Why he did not include Great Britain is very curious indeed. With the advent of the Euro it becomes interesting to note that Britain is still a holdout and France and Germany are backed by Gold with no known intentions of selling.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:03 - ID#255284)
I'm a converter
32.150742403 in one kilo

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:05 - ID#210114)
Warnings for the US Economy (from the Oz Financial Review)

However, the US current account deficit is expected to

widen substantially and there may be warning signs for

the dollar, for monetary policy and, consequently, for the stockmarket.

"There is the potential for a change in sentiment toward

the dollar at some future stage," the IMF notes, "which

would reverse one of the temporary factors that has been

helping to hold down US inflation. If world commodity

prices were to recover at the same time and labour

market pressures continued to push up wage growth, the

Federal Reserve could face the need for significant

tightening of monetary conditions, and both bond and

stockmarkets might be subject to significant corrections.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:06 - ID#210114)
Troy Ounces per Kilo
32.15 ( troy ounce equals 31.1 grams )

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:09 - ID#426220)

The Nikkei continues to dribble DOWNWARDS....

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:09 - ID#340302)
@ALL...with respect to Steve Kaplan's warning today about... impending blow-off top in the gold market.

I must first state that I think Mr. Kaplan often makes very astute analyses about the gold/silver market. His newsletter is very impressive.

However, that said, I believe that his latest prognostication is wrong specifically... Mr. Kaplan is claiming that, with commercial insiders going net short and speculators becoming net long, gold does not have much room to move upward before encountering a blow-off top.

Normally, I would agree with Mr. Kaplan's analysis...except in the case of a trend shift in the gold market ( from a bear to a bull ) which is what I believe is now transpiring.

In such a trend-shift scenario, one would expect that many commercial insiders would in fact be completely wrong in terms of their market expectations. One may also analogize this phenomenon to the the DOW shifts from bull to bear, inevitably, many professional bulls will be caught with their pants down, getting crushed in the debacle along with a plethora of small investors. Although it is normally true that in such trend shifts, the small investor is always extrapolation, that does not necessarily mean that ALL professionals and ALL big money investors are always right.

Essentially, today, we are witnessing a gold market and stock market like no others. When the stock market breaks ( and probably just prior to such a break ) , then I believe it is quite possible ( and certainly likely ) that speculator interest in gold will completely overwhelm and dwarf commercial insider activity in gold. In such a scenario, the speculators' buy actions will predominate to such an astonishing degree that the commercial insiders will be compelled into a PANIC BUY. Again, this phenomenon should be the final confirmation of the end of the gold bear...a sharp series of double digit gold price rises over a period of several days, as both commercial insiders and speculators dramatically chase the fast rising POG.

Where will gold end up in such a scenario? That's anybody's guess...but I would not be surprised to see it spike sharply above $800 before settling down for a correction.

In that sense, I agree with Mr. Another. Gold's initial move in the confirmed gold bull should be quite dramatic. On the other hand, where I differ from Mr. Another is in my belief that gold's upspike will not be quite as dramatic as he forecasts.

But, then, hell, who really knows?

The main variable is this: stock and bond flight money must park itself somewhere...if the target is to be precious metals, then of course, these markets are very small relative to the American equities/bonds markets.
If even 25% of the flight money moves into precious metals ( ) , then Mr. Another's prognostications do not seem quite so absurd. On the other hand, acting against his predictions, one would expect some government intervention...but then the variable there what price level? And just how effective would such intervention be?



(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:12 - ID#401237)
Another Dead Canary in The Mine

Today, CNBC very casually announced, that do to popular demand the frequency of the Commodity ticker has been increased on the top ticker at the bottom of the screen.

Interest in a commodity seems to be picking up.


(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:16 - ID#286230)
glenn: I realise you are busy with your job and don't necessarily tune in here as often as some of us layabouts do--could you list your reasons for gold going up and/or down in the near future?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:20 - ID#269245)
Skinny - let me give this a shot
England will not join the EU. It has the dollar and the LBMA - and that is all England thinks it will ever need. - c

Bully Beef
(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:20 - ID#259261)
Gold up at the end of the day on Monday?
This is bullish for gold. If one could buy in the morning and sell Fri. afternoon, some tidy profit could be made. That is if you could be professionally detached from the glittering, envious ,yellow, precious, wonderful, awe inspiring, cold, heavy, metal. Don't look back.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:26 - ID#210114)
Bill Buckler and Kaplan
Bill, would love your comments on Kaplan's somewhat bearish article.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:30 - ID#26793)
Dollar-yen news and comment

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:33 - ID#317193)
clone-In God we trust!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:33 - ID#227238)
A Declaration in need of renewal.
Clone: There are some thoughts so profound, so universal and so well stated that to invite idle comment by a reader would only seem to diminish the whole. You have hit upon one such.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:34 - ID#426220)
Least common of the senses is common-sense

REF: farfel ( @ALL...with respect to Steve Kaplan's warning today about... )

I totally concur with you farfel However, I will state it more emphatically that Kaplan's comment that " impending blow-off top in the gold market" IS TOTALLY ABSURD - THAT IS ABSURD BEYOND BELIEF for the following reason.

How in SAM-HILL can anyone define a BLOW-OFF from $280 to a measly 312???!!! That's ridiculous!!! I cannot believe anyone familiar with the markets can make such a ASININE statement. Here is a empirical definition of a BLOW-OFF:

About 15 months ago our illustrious Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA states that the US market - as represented by the DOW - "demonstrates all the ear-marks of IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE." The DOW was then about 6000. TODAY THE DOW IS ABOUT 9000 - 50% higher THIS INDEED IS A BLOW-OFF and certainly not a price rise of $280 to a mere $312.
Someone has lost touch with the realities of the market - METHINKS.

This reminds me that the least common of the senses is common-sense.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:38 - ID#421269)
Mass mind F-- -- K
GOLD IS A GO! Is it cheap enough, HELL YEAH! BUY GOLD!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:42 - ID#206358)
4/13/98 -- 1:43 PM

Foreign embassies in Brunei look to escape
hazardous haze

BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN, Brunei ( AP ) - Faced with soaring levels
of air pollution, the American Embassy in Brunei has requested
permission from Washington to temporarily remove its staff from the
smog-choked capital.

Meanwhile, fires raging throughout South Asia have forced airports and
schools to close down, threatened the health of millions and endangered
wildlife to the point of extinction.

U.S. Ambassador Glen Robert Rease said Monday he was waiting for
State Department approval to fly his staff to either Australia or back to
the United States until conditions changed for the better.

Wildfires stemming from drought conditions have shrouded the region in
a blanket of choking smog, soot and debris. Low levels of visibility have
forced international airport to close in parts of Brunei, Malaysia and

Officials in Malaysia said they are considering calling a state of
emergency in sections of Borneo to aid thousands who are facing food
and water shortages.

An eye-and-throat-stinging smog throughout Borneo has thousands
complaining of asthma-like symptoms and crowding local emergency
rooms for treatment.

The hazardous haze has also pushed the Pollution Standards Index deep
into the danger zone. A PSI above 200 is considered ``very unhealthy,''
above 300 ``hazardous,'' and above 400 ``very hazardous.'' Reports in
Brunei put Sunday's PSI around 500.

Although Singapore's 78 reading on Monday pales in comparison to the
600 and above levels seen on Borneo, it was the city's highest level of air
pollution this year.

That record came as easterly winds from Borneo carried the smoky
conditions into the city, reducing visibility to about one mile and
threatening yet another hazy, muggy summer.

In mid-March, the U.S. Embassy issued a travel alert that advised the
200 Americans in Brunei to stay inside, and to wear protective masks if
they must go outdoors.

Students at the Brunei International School have had no recess or
outdoor sports activities since January, when pollution levels climbed into
the danger zone. Students now strap on pollution masks to walk through
the school's outdoor hallways.

Indonesian officials said the wildfires have charred hundreds of thousands
of acres in forests since January. The runaway blazes have reportedly
killed dozens of rare Sambar deer, and threatened orangutans, birds,
crocodiles and a specie of butterfly found only on Borneo.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:43 - ID#22985)
farfel - one of my favorite movie quotes,
from Men In Black ( I paraphrase from memory ) :

Will Smith: People are too smart to believe that.

Tommy Lee Jones: A person is smart. People are stupid, panicky animals

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:44 - ID#210235)
Thank you for taking the time to respond to my admittedly vague worries about investment bankers using the Social Security trust fund to enrich their pockets. My posting was incomplete, as there are many reforms being bandied about.

The group which was commissioned to study and report on this issue determined that PSA's ( Personal Security Accounts ) or IA's ( Individual Accounts ) were too difficult to administer, and recommended against them.

They did recommend the gradual investment of up to 40% of OASDI trust fund assets in "broad private market funds".

Because of the gradual nature of such an investment, if it were implemented, it would allow the treasury department to buy at will, and we'd be the ( in my case, at least, unwilling ) owners of these overpriced assets.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:49 - ID#227238)
Vronsky: A blowoff when we are within a weak pee of the recent lows??? I agree with you completely. In Kaplan's defense, perhaps it should be brushed off as an unfortunate superordination of inappropriate terminology. ....... or something like that.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:51 - ID#421269)
Don't give up....

Buy, Buy , Buy , and hold on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:53 - ID#260433)
@Farfel and Vronsky
Kaplan may be full of Boston Baked Beans but what if we are not dealing with a fresh young bull market for gold here but a counter trend rally in a long term bear market? Many of the Elliott wavers are predicting 35 on the XAU and 140 an oz for gold. The prevailing wisdom seems to be that a tidal wave of deflation is going to wash ashore from asia this year and I have to believe that gold will accurately predict the rate of inflation. I would assume in a period of deflation gold would go down to reflect that. Just a thought.
Crazy Bill

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:55 - ID#342376)
Kaplan's comments....
Me thinks he's just being cautious and "covering" his bases. After such bad times in a decimated sector, it' understandable. Another example of the "wall of worry".

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:56 - ID#210235)
My book, Money Meltdown, that you recommended has arrived. BBML

(Mon Apr 13 1998 20:57 - ID#57232)
Kaplan's report is bullish long term
Vronsky, Farfel: I think you both need to re-read today's Kaplan report. If I understand correctly, he thinks shorts covering will cause a short- term blowoff type rally to $320/oz, followed by a correction. He is long term bullish on gold after that.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:06 - ID#330175)
'Loonie tunes'..............................................................June gold down .50
What in the world happened to the mighty ( ? ) Loonie today?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:06 - ID#42365)
!!! Rubin just turned BULLISH on Gold Nuggets !!!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:08 - ID#57232)
Here is Kaplan's Newsletter
Kaplan think's we may head down one more time -- briefly -- after a test of $320/oz. Many of you are more expert of gold than I, so I am puzlled that you would not expect another brief test of gold lows. The gold shorts are not going to give up without a fight, IMHO. Japan looms over the horizon, I think -- that may have scared off the commercial longs -- for now.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:15 - ID#373403)
So the government does not cook the books? From the San Francisco Federal Reserve article posted earlier:

"However, he added, productivity increases, a strong dollar, low oil prices and further improvements in price measurement would help offset the inflationary pressures stemming from the tight labor markets."

Improvements in price measurement offsets inflationary pressures? I thought price measurements MEASURE inflation, not affect it!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:15 - ID#222231)
Cesare Americanium Kitco Wars, Act 1, Scene 2
Enter Cesare Americanium:

I have come not to conquer but to enlighten those that do not comprehend the words of Cesare Americanium. I spake with the words of one who reigns supreme. My words shall not be denied by those sheep, infidels, morons, idiotiums, and bastardos, for Cesare Americanius is the ruler of the kITCOLAND.

My knowledge and wealth is beyond those of small and ignorant minds. Listen and harken upon my words and ye shall reap wealth beyond thy meager thoughts. I am a GOD! Until ye acknowledge that I am the OMNIPOTENT, OMNIPRESENT, WRITE OF ME AND PRAISE ME, I shall put upon thee a curse that will make thy days of labor long, and thy nights darker than dark.

Enter Mikela Stellera:

Cesare, beware the ides of April!

Enter Cesare Americanium:

Wherefore thou speaketh of the ides of April? I fear noone, for I am GOD! My words and knowledge are beyond compare. I have come to save thee from thyself, ye of ignorent thoughts.

Enter Farfella:

Cesare, beware the ides of May!

Farfella, thy be a doubter? Wilst do thee warn me, thy GOD? Thou knowest I will repeat to all, yeah, to the world, time and time again, that my word is indisputable, OMNIPOWERFUL and beyond thy question.

Enter Studiera:

Cesare, beware the ides of June!

Enter Cesare Americanium:

Again and again, I, a GOD beyond comparison, am confronted by more sheep, infidels, morons, idiotums and bastardos. Take heed, do not take ANOTHER above me, for ye shall rue the day that thou doest.

Enter Toleranta:

Cesare, thou do not get it:

Enter Cesare Americanium:

I will spit in thy eye, and hold those of small minds in contempt forever!

Enter Pierrino:

Cesare, thee will never get it!

Act 3, ANOTHER day.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:15 - ID#269245)
Bill, a legitimate concern...
Despite the deflationary trend, Gold will rise - though not as rapidly as it will when we return to inflationary. We have already seen gold sink due to deflation. For some reason the price index has trailed gold - too much ignorance out there I guess, people are just starting to tighten their belts and save. When investors really understand that the equity markets just are not making the grade, then they will turn to metals and land for security, later to energy and resources as our global economy recovers and finally back to stocks as we get rolling again. This the cycle I am placing my bets on. - c

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:17 - ID#330175)
Two nuns, Sister Mary and Sister Helen, are traveling through Europe
in their car. They get to Transylvania and are stopped at a traffic
light. Suddenly, a diminutive vampire jumps onto the hood of the car
and hisses through the windscreen.

"Quick, quick!!" shouts Sister Mary. "What shall I do?"

"Turn the windshield wipers on, that will get rid of the
says Sister Helen.

Sister Mary switches them on, knocking the vampire about, but he
clings on and hisses again at the nuns. "What shall I do now?" she

"Switch on the windscreen washer. I filled it up with Holy Water in
the Vatican," says Sister Helen.

The vampire steams as the water burns his skin, but he clings on and
hisses again.

"Now what?" shouts Sister Mary.

"Show him your cross," says Sister Helen.

Sister Mary opens the window and shouts: "GET OFF MY FUKING CAR!!"
Only the individual sender is responsible for the content of this
message, and the message does not necessarily reflect the position
or policy of the National Education Association or its affiliates.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:19 - ID#340302)
@JTF...I do not believe gold will retest its lows...
...for one fundamental reason...

...if gold were to fall below 300 again, then it would probably indicate the resumption of the gold bear. In other words, I believe such a downward move would prove psychologically devastating to gold longs and I would expect there would be huge capitulation, taking the metal down to 200 or less over a relatively short period of time. Since I fervently believe we are a gold bull...given the amazing strength of gold recently in the face of a spate of continuous daily negatives and Wall Street maneuvres attacking the metal...therefore I cannot foresee the scenario allowing for such a severe retraction.

On the other hand, I see increasing evidence of an imminent "BUY PANIC" developing just around the corner for both gold and silver.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:21 - ID#421269)
Ignore me ...
My money is all gone, it's in BGO.... and krugs, and libs, and LUMBER...

I don't invest all my money in GOLD!! HA, HA!!!!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:24 - ID#411149)
JTF- Kaplan ain't been right a SINGLE day since he has been posting,
why in the world would anybody make a move on his comments NOW?

Tally Ho

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:26 - ID#317193)
Those of "simple thoughts" need not cast aspersions if their words are "true". Tom P.S- patience,patience. bbl

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:28 - ID#57232)
Person - smart, People -- dumb, silly
Dyzd: I got a kick out of that! Read alot about chaos theory and the Santa Fe Institute while on vacation. The Santa Fe Institute was a hot bed of computer modeling of chaos, with at least 5 nobel prize winners from many disciplines from economics to particle physics.

The part I liked the most was one about artificial life. One program consisted on a bunch of 'birds' with very simple independent motion, but all programmed with the same built-in 'desire' to be with other 'birds',as well as some other rules that were later individually 'learned' with a simple algorithm as the birds flew. After several iterations, they always flew in flocks, and if one collided with a pole or other object, it would flutter about, and then join the flock. Reminds one of the markets.

Another more interesting case was the replacement of the bird model with a simple model of a 'flock' of investors, each one given the desire for a profit, and rules of trading for a single stock -- equity value based on earning, P/E ratio,etc. The rules were elementary. Initially, the stock price rose to a certain level, and stagnated. The experimenters became puzzled, and gave up for a while. They came back many hours later, an found the stock price oscillating between two values, as if the many virtual investors had collectively developed a trading model.

All of this was nearly ten years ago -- I wonder what is happening now! EG, with a little more thought, one could probably design a very nice economic model based on these multiple little individual, independent programs. Just imagine what one could do if a little 'irrationality' was added! Market manias in a black box!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:31 - ID#26669)
Leland re Kaplan's cautious tone
Leland, IMHO Kaplan bases a lot of his short term bearish worry on US traders committments. With a worldwide gold market being driven in large part by non US buyers one could easily discount the effect of his projected blowoff IF ( and I say IF in caps ) the world use numbers hold steady. Considering that all the US figures are denominated in the US dollar, but there is no assurance that it will remain stable in the face of world currencies that is another wild card in the equation. So, while a $320 POG has been mentioned it could as easily be a $340 ( where there was a strong resistance last year BTW ) , $380, or even $400 short term.

So as for me and my humble house, I'm preparing to watch the world market stats more closely. This may be a nice ride.

( all IMHO, of course )

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:33 - ID#343259)
Getchell Gold (ggo) amex
Rumors are heating up about a takeover of Getchell Gold, owner
of what must be Nevadas best exploration play. They have mineable
reserves somewhere around 6 million ounces, have been mining and
milling at a loss though so are undervalued given the potential
to add to those reserve.
Minorco said to be hot on the trail, but Newmont seems most
likely, I am hoping for a bidding war. Stock goes for $23,
has been near $50, should be an easy 50-100%, if gold stays strong.

As for a forgone conclusion that gold stocks are so undervalued,
as is gold, that in a general market crash they will perform
well, caution is warranted. There is zero evidence that suggests
that the herd won't out-sell the goldbug bargain hunters if such
a crash should happen. If there is an overwhelming mass of selling
in any issue without buying liquidity the price will drop.

- G-Nutz - thanks for the fun-fun

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:34 - ID#231337)
farfel and IBM
I respect most of what farfel may say about gold, but feel that he may be too negative on old blue IBM. IBM is currently trading somehwhere in the 16 - 17 times earnings range. This is not overly inflated, esp when compared to Microsoft which seems to like the 50+ times earnings range. IBM is a company not nearly as dependant on hardware sales as it was years ago, in fact less than 40% of revenue comes from H/W sales. So it will like every other high teck company feel the pinch when the pullback comes, but I suspect the fall will be much less than a Microsoft, that company being very highly inflated. Also, IBM has really not moved at all since last summer... still in the $100/share range as it was then, so it has held a real position while the DOW has moved considerably in that same time.

Now for something lighter.....I AM TOLD THIS IS A TRUE STORY!! happened in Richmond B.C.

Neighbor A has a dog in his fenced yard. His friend neighbor B next door buys a little white bunny rabbit and builds a small bunny hut for the pet, then places it near the fence bordering neighbor A. The dog, being curious about the new 'thing' next door creates a disturbance with his increased barking and running back and forth along the fence, unable to get at the rabbit. This does tick off the neighbors and frightens the rabbit. So, to settle things down, neighbor B moves the rabbit hut and rabbit around to the other side of his house out of sight of the dog. Things settle down to normal.

Neighbor B leaves town for a few days. While he is away, neighbor A, having actually forgotten about the rabbit, leaves the side gate of his yard open thus allowing his dog free roam.

About an hour or two later, he sees his dog trotting proudly around his back yard with the rabbit, dead, very muddy but unmangled, in its mouth. He is horrified that his dog has killed the rabbit, and wanting to be a good neighbor, but not willing to admit to his oversight in letting his dog loose, decides that he will quickly take action before his neighbor returns. He cleans the rabbit, to the point of drying its fur with a hair dryer, and carefully puts the rabbit back into its cage, hoping that the owner will believe that the rabbit died of natural causes.

Seeing the neighbor next day, he casually asks how his trip was. The reply is 'OK', but that something relly strange has happened. Just before he was to leave, his rabbit had died, and not having time to properly dispose of it, he had temporarily buried it at the back of his yard. But upon his return the rabbit was back in its cage, but dead!. He thinks he may have buried te rabbit too hastily as it was probably not dead, and that it had dug its way out of its temporary dirt grave and found its way back to its cage. But the strangest thing was that it was totally clean, and he cannot for the life of himself, figure out that part of the puzzle!!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:35 - ID#57232)
Gold will go up for while, then it will go down for a while
Farfel: We may disagree on the fine points, but not on the fact that the gold bear is over. I think I know what you are doing -- you are truying to talk the gold market up -- and you are good at it. Unfortunately you are talking to the choir -- we are mostly gold bugs.

If you realy want to talk gold up, you need a bigger audience.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:35 - ID#316193)

Wouldn't it be nice to have Another give us his THOUGHTS??

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:38 - ID#340302) as a forecaster of deflation...NOT!
...I doubt it...Milton Friedman doubts it...most American academic ( as opposed to government or corporate ) economists doubt it...and given the extremely hefty, daily injections of liquidity into our economy, deflation just does not seem in the cards.

On the other hand, gold as a forecaster of stagflation...yes, that is something I expect to see...and it bodes extremely well for the yellow metal.

Why not deflation?

Because there is increasing evidence that currency problems and pandemic letter of credit terminations in Asia are causing raw material shortages for factories, thus leading to manufactured goods shortages...portending inflation and/or stagflation in America as citizens find it difficult to satisfy their nouveau riche material desires for various imports. Moreover, given that America is a service sector economy today...and given that Americans hold such enormous hefty aggregate purchasing power, then even if there were to be a deflation in goods imports, this deflation would be more than offset by service inflation created by the excess demand.

Well...then what about the oil price slide, you might ask?

The reduced price in oil has more to do with the El Nino effect in the country than Asian deflation...this is a simple ( and very temporary ) fact. El Nino transmutes into La Nina as of next winter.... and oh, oh!! Freezing cold winters all across the country again.

What about after a stock market crash, you might further inquire?

Again, stagflation...not deflation. Even with a crash, there would far too much vestigial purchasing power to allow a pure deflation.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:44 - ID#26669)
Leland,yes it would
But unfortunately doesn't look to be the case. Another hasn't been back since his 'ears that bite' message.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:47 - ID#401460)
Otis Layoffs - Slowdown ?

FARMINGTON, Conn. ( AP ) - Otis Elevator will close 13 of its 19 worldwide engineering centers and cut 2,000 jobs as part of a broad restructuring plan to revive its ailing business.

Otis, the world's largest elevator manufacturer, also said it will reduce the number of its
international factories, due in part to slower demand caused by the Asian economic


(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:48 - ID#253246)
CoolJing GGO a pass for Barrick & Newmont

In the April issue of GSA John Doody reported that Barrick & Newmont
looked and passed on Getchell cited potential enviromental liabilities
from prior operators as an unacceptable risk to buyer.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:52 - ID#300202)
U always spell dat word wrong. Must be Cape Bretonese. Been doin' a mini
study on our unigue language. Interesting that people from New Aberdeen
in Glace Bay refer to a "bus" as a "buzz" & Sydney is referred to as
Cindy. Now that I'm back-am getting used to dis, dat, dese, dose & dem.
Am on the juice tonight-wine again. Invested 100% in gold over 1 1/2 yrs
ago. Lost bout 1/2 & startin' to see light. Wud have cashed in months
ago had it not been for stumblin' onto this site. Great to see more
civility here. All the best Ted!!!! Rockin' to Robbie Robertson &
The Band-Cripple Creek. Dose guys are guuuuuud!!!!!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:52 - ID#330175)
June Gold down .70 @ 312.20............................
I will be back later,yes?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:52 - ID#373403)
Your recent post against deflation is based on the how externalities will affect our market. You are saying that deflation in other countries will cause implosions in their export business due to credit problems so will be inflationary for us. You also say correctly that our ( U.S. ) service sector is experiencing inflation more than offsetting any deflationary tendencies from abroad.

What your arguement does not analyze is a domestic deflation at the end of our bull and boom market while the rest of the world is healing from theirs. A stock market bust will cause a credit crunch as people cannot hold onto their inflated way of living. Capital will flow out as our economy goes into recession and Asia is recovering.

Our economy is inflated due to our $5.5 trillion debt. For fifty years prices have gone up, up, up! Deflation happens at regular intervals in history. It can happen today as evidenced by Asia. I personally believe that whatever is causing deflation in Asia will systematically work it's way around the globe, ending with America.

Printing money and using fiscal stimulus packages does not always overcome negative sentiment.


(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:53 - ID#210235)
Farfel, good post on blow-off top. It would be pretty funny to get one at the end of a long bear market, yes?

ORCA, that bunny joke, true or not, is just terrific. Ted, how many joke thanks do we owe you? A hundred? The perfect counterpoint to worrying about global economic realities.

Pete, you may have heard that an epileptic will leave the chaotic, apparently random pattern of brain activity as part of his mental seizure. So too, a heart will enter a remarkably random pattern on the ECG, looks like a series of U's and upside-down U's alternating. On the social dynamic front, in human discourse, conversation can sometimes develop a similar pattern of repeated elements, with the elimination of all other competing ones. If not checked it leads, unfortunately, to the madness of crowds bemoaned by Charles MacNay and used to great advantage by social demegogues from Hitler to modern-day cult leaders. Although uncomfortable, unkind, and apparently unwise, it is better to break it up and return to the chaotic normalcy of discourse. Please understand that we are all on the same lifeboat, rowing in the same direction. Some of us have different disciplines ( courses of study ) and try to help in ways that may seem awful and even obnoxious to others. I'm sorry, only that I cannot impart my understanding at this time complete with references. I won't insult you by asking you to trust me. But I do trust that you are a good guy, and your heart is in the right place. Be assured, it will all work out in the end. With highest regards, Promey.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:54 - ID#293379)
Gianni Dioro_A (re your 1959 post)

I couldn't sign off until asking you to think before you grab that calculator... Okay, take a deep breath before using that conversion factor. The unit of mass-the kilogram-is defined in terms of a physically held, non-paper standard, a particular platinum-iridium prototype kept near Paris ( go platinum ) . If were nuclear, we'd use measurements on atomic scale, the atomic mass unit, which would be defined by international agreement to be 1/12 the mass of the carbon-12 atom. Mass is not weight, but is often referred to as such. Mass is a characteristic that relates the force on a body to the resulting acceleration. A kilogram mass of gold on earth may weigh 2.205 pounds on earth and it remains a kilogram mass on the moon, but will experience 1/6 the local force of gravity and will have 1/6 the weight relative to mother earth ( 0.375 pounds, yikes, this is worst than the Belgium CB selling ) . When we write a kilogram is equal to 2.205 pounds, we mean that a kilogram is a mass that weighs 2.205 pounds at a location where the constant of acceleration, g, has the standard value of 9.80665 meters per second squared. Sea level may sounds like a good place to start to the uninitiated, don't give up just because your calculation gets messy when you consider that the earth is not uniform, the earth is not a sphere, and the damn thing rotates, but go ahead, for a first order approximation consider your kilogram to be at rest in a non-accelerated frame of reference. Rather a utopian ideal found only around frictionless inclined planes.. ( Just between you and me, a physicist will assume a horse is a sphere if makes his calculations easier ) Where was I, oh yes, a pound is a unit of force as in the international system of units the newton is a measurement of force ( which is a kilogram meter per second squared, of course ) . The troy ounce, the apothecaries weight, is equal to 5760 grains, and is 1/12 of a pound, while in the English speaking countries, an ounce is 1/16 a pound, an avoirdupois unit of weight equal to 700 grains. The grain is the smallest unit of weight in the British system, equal to 50 milligrams or  a carrot me thinks, or 0.0648 grams or 0.002285 ounces.
If you don't mind using some wild ass approximation like 1 gram equals 15.432 grains ( 1/1000 of a kilogram ) , then go ahead and cut your gold with an ax-- use that 32.15 number. But frankly, how can you sleep wondering about significant digits? To really be at peace, you might want to look into the non-linear properties of the earth's gravitational field where you store your PM, consider the steady state shifting of the tectonic plates in your hemisphere, and remember the earth is precessing about it's angle of inclination, has variation to it's elliptical solar orbit, and, yes it is true, the liquid mantle spins slightly faster than the crust, causing perturbations to the centripital forces...

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:54 - ID#411149)
farfel- where is BelAir? are you close to Monterey or are you in India?
gime a holler

Tally Ho

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:54 - ID#340302)
@ORCA...thank you for your input re: IBM...
...I am well aware that IBM today is more of a computer service company than a computer hardware company. Ergo, slowdowns in computer purchases do not impact it as severely as other more hardware-dependent companies.

However, unlike many other major service or hardware companies, IBM has greatly "overindulged" in corporate share fact, I would guess that IBM is the King of Corporate Share Buybacks in America today. They began the entire process in Oct. '97, announcing the most dramatic share buyback of the entire year ( remember? ) .

Where does this leave IBM? Take a good look at its cash margin when the new figures are released and you should get a better picture.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:56 - ID#26669)
Farfel, its been a while since I heard someone use that word here.
"Again, stagflation...not deflation. Even with a crash, there would far too much vestigial purchasing power to allow a pure deflation."

Vestigial, as in teats on a boar hog I presume.

Such vestigial purchasing power would include money the hords of young government job retirees, persons with massive IRA's, the landed gentry, the general class of people known in the Southern half of the USA as "snowbirds", all the masses of persons on one dole or another, your friend of whom I will not speak.

Sadly it sounds like a recipe for civil unrest. And while the LA riots or the Watts riots before them were welfare recipients burning their own government subsidised property one could project that stagflation riots would be the former middle and working classes burning out the gentry.

I'm reminded of the scene from the movie "Titanic" where the people trapped on the third class deck rammed the wooden chair through the gateway and stormed up to the upper decks.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:58 - ID#343259)
GGO enviro problems
there is a plume of down wind contamination from the early
operations at Getchells property, visible from satelite
images, plus an high orpiment-realgar ( antimony-arsenic )
gangue component in the previosly mined waste dumps.
But as they say "mines are made". Can't think of any projects
you can take on without some enviro drawbacks, just have to
weigh the risks and potential remediation costs. The new ore
is not a problem, from what I have heard, but I havee no
metallurgical reports to validate that.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 21:59 - ID#340302)
@MISSING LINK...I do not disagree with the major thrust...
...of your argument.

However, I do not foresee a pure deflation in America...nor a pure inflation.


If you are unfamiliar with this economic phenomenon, then I suggest you look into it. It augurs well for precious metals.



(Mon Apr 13 1998 22:06 - ID#26669)
SWC press release
Stock is still holding over $26, but off a bit.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 22:10 - ID#210235)
@CB gold sales, you really want to read this.
Several posters here have mentioned that CB gold sales aren't significant in terms of global gold sales. I found some numbers to support this allegation on Harry Schultz's webpage:

In one of the old letters he offers for free, Feb. 24, 1997, he states that "Gold market's decades-old shroud of secrecy was finally lifted on 1/29 by London Bullion Market Association report. Satisfying even the most voyeuristic fundamentalist, the world now knows media & govt attempts to characterise gold as an anachronistic cottage industry were, at best, borne of total ignorance. The true size of the global bullion market is HUGE!

How huge? 930 tonnes, over $10bil, are traded every day in London. That's more than twice the annual production of South Africa. It's equal to the gold reserves of EU central banks.

There's more. Gold traders tell us that's only the tip of the Midas metal iceberg. Matched orders, equal to 3-5x the 930 tonnes, aren't included in the tally. This relegates central banks sales & threats of sales to mere footnotes."

Harry is a good, solid analyst I've trusted for 25 years. I plan to subscribe to his letter forthwith. I should have known this last year.

p.s. my apologies for not remembering to proofread my last post. I cringe at the misspelling I deliberately let pass, planning to go back and get it. My hands got ahead of my brain, AGAIN.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 22:11 - ID#401460)
Yen In & Dollar Out

TOKYO, April 14 ( Reuters ) - Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, saying that over-dependence on the U.S. dollar was one cause of the Asian financial crisis, called for greater use of the yen in trade and as a reserve currency in an interview with a Japanese daily published on Tuesday.

Mahathir was quoted as telling the Mainichi Shimbun: ``I have already called for an increase in the weighting of the yen as part of our foreign reserves.''

He also said he recognised the importance of increasing the amount of trade settlements carried out in yen.

It would appear the US Dollar is beginning to loose respect.


(Mon Apr 13 1998 22:18 - ID#330175)
Caper.......glad yer feelin no pain----Monday night(hmmm)
My favorite is ---'how ya doin buddy'....100% in Gold 1.5 years ago ( I'd have blown out my one remaining brain cell by now ) ....

(Mon Apr 13 1998 22:21 - ID#373403)
The Future
I think we will have simultaneous inflation and deflation. Nothing ever happens the same way twice so this may seem a little off the wall.

Global competition causes business to work on ever shrinking profit margins and therefore to make it up in volume. The deflation will be in producer prices as companies struggle to compete. Goods will continue to fall in price until economies of scale are used up.

Inflation will come from the globalization of the wage rate. Producer costs will rise. We have already sold the American worker out to globalization. This is what masked inflation for the Reagan/Bush spending spree. Our workers, were forced to forego pay raises when a similiar plant could be built in Asia.

Now that the market has priced in these lower costs already, wage inflation will once again bump up against price competition. What we are seeing is the disequilibrium between investment capital and human capital. As companies become larger to compete on economies of scale, they hire more people. As the labor market ( and there are many labor markets based on geography and skill level ) thins out they have to raise wages and prices rise or profits get squeezed where prices are locked. At a certain scale, it makes sense to put massive capital into machinery to replace the humans.

A case in point is a friend of mine who helped build a machine for manufacturing printer ribbons. It was actually five machines which were built and airlifted via two jumbo sized cargo jets to Ireland. The laborers worked and received pay raises until the volume was such that this $20 million machine could produce the ribbons cheaper. Labor went up initially, goods prices eventually deflated, and the former ribbon workers are all flipping burgers and serving coffee.

Thhe ultimate deflation will come when all the workers are working at service jobs which automation and globalization cannot take away. The goods prices will stop falling when the economies from capital investment and globalization lose their marginal benefits. At that point, the middle class will not exist and the manufacturers will have no one with money to sell to.

This is the proble with measuring GDP, inflation, wages, etc in the aggregate. GDP is going up as the rich get richer and the poor get more numerous. Inflation looks in check as goods and labor prices fall offsetting a burgeoning debt and money supply. Wages look good even though the middle class is thinning out. The structure of our country is weakening while the aggregate numbers make everything look o.k.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 22:24 - ID#255151)

Thanks for the AFR article. Kinda frustrating waiting for these things to pan out. It's
like waiting for Goldot!

Mr. Mick
(Mon Apr 13 1998 22:27 - ID#345321)
themissinglink - you are right about everything except .............
the statement about nothing happening the same way twice. History repeats itself - only the names change.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 22:36 - ID#39828)
Also much like Das Glasperlenspiel
History notes the materialisation of Das Glasperlenspiel here
on Kitco.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 22:42 - ID#373403)
New piece of jewelry on the way
I am working on a new pendant which I will try to keep at one ounce fine gold. I wonder if there is a market for this among gold investors. As jewelry, it might stay beyond the reach of the confiscators. Can I get a ten percent premium for this or should I concentrate on heavier designs to cast customers gold for pay? Comments welcome.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 22:43 - ID#330175)
lawyers SUK~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(Mon Apr 13 1998 22:43 - ID#256326)
Leonardo of Pisa
To make a simple story simpler, the targets for gold ( basis GCM8 ) ,IF this is a new bull market, range from $317.20 to $387 on this current leg. We have so far missed the last and least of these by about a dollar. My point is that barring a retest of the lows, gold must step up to the plate and give us a mean game face quite soon. Futzing around in the teens does not impress. C'mon gold. Show us your best stuff!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 22:54 - ID#256326)
It's invigorating to see someone other than D.A. and myself on the *de-disinflation* cart. It's getting hard to remember back to when goldbugs were not mostly politically correct deflationists. Amen!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:00 - ID#330175)
June Gold down 1.0 @ 311.90

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:03 - ID#190411)
@farfel and prometheus, re Yen buys
This weekend, when many of you were off; doing non-productive things, I asked my simpleton-question about the Japanese CB support of the Yen.

It seems to be an ongoing thing, so, I would like your opinions.

They spent, on this one seemingly unexpected support operation, about eight billion USD.

Today, I have seen numbers in the range of $Twelve billion in treasury paper sold by them today, alone.

If I wanted to support my currency, as in the days of yore, I would have increased my country's Au holdings.

For the $8,000,000,000. divided by $320.00/OZ equals 25,000,000 OZ gold. Twenty-five million OZ makes Belgian, Argentine, Australian, Candian ,etc., sales pale. I had a few other points, but, : Is gold MONEY anymore?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:03 - ID#344290)
Barrick's Hedeging program -10 million ozs. currently
I just rec'd. Barrick '97 report and it is candid as to how Barrick through a dealer borrows CB gold, sells it on the open market and invests the proceeds @ 7% interest. They pay the CB 2% annually for the use of the gold. The contango, 5% accrues to Barrick and effectively ups the price Barrick receives by that amount compounded annually until the gold is returned to the CB. If the spot price is higher than the hedge price, Barrick sells at spot and rolls the hedge over - they just concluded negotiations to allow them to keep rolling for 15 years should Barrick wish. This scheme has netted Barrick $580,000,000 in the last 10 years. 10 million ozs. currently hedged. See page 10 of the annual report.

Great program for the company - surely others with the financial heft to do so will be getting their own programs going like this.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:05 - ID#255151)

A Nobel Prize winner for literature, 1943. Here is a good site on that subject--

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:06 - ID#253153)
The Case for Deflation
1. We have massive world wide debts.
2. With any hints of inflation in the US bond market will collapse and interest rates will soar.
3.There is no more liquidity in ASIA.
4. Commodities have begun their downward move.
5. Most companies in the US are using historic cost accounting for profit and loss statements ( should be using current cost accounting ) . The camelot professors never understood that historic cost accounting
swallow capital at a leveraged rate.
6.The backdoor of regulation and taxes has eroded industry's ability to
produce real profit.
7. We had our run away inflation between 1966-1982.
8. The Fed won't be able to do anything about it.
9. In deflation public's requirement for currency decreases.
10. Big banks mergers mania mask future loan losses.
11.Foreign CB beginning to sell their dollars.
12. A market decline will accelerate deflation.
13. I'm afraid of a financial panic in the not too distant future.
14.The world economy is contracting as a result od capital shortages.
15. What else can I say. Good luck to all.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:07 - ID#93114)
LGB Silver
LGB thanks for your earlier info on the silver dollar price information.

Maybe you could share your opinion on a deal that has just come across
to me. An elderly lady wants to sell me 500 miscellaneous silver dollars
she and her late husband have collected about 40 years ago. She wants
to just dump the entire lot for $5.50US per coin. I have no way of knowing the numismatic value since, she does not want me to handle
the coins. Do you think that buying blindly at $5.50 is worth the risk of picking up just a bunch of 1921 Morgans that might not even be in decent condition. This is like a real surprise package, you don't know
what you might find.. Any ideas?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:08 - ID#288369)
I still think our bash should be on T#1's yacht, docked@KeyWest.....Fete 318.....crocked@KeyWest....I'll get the band....How's About....Treasure Island....Rob't Louis Ste.....Mel what's his name's museum is there...atrocha bars and, matey?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:14 - ID#26669)
JP the case for stagflation
Count the number of people on your block who are supported by interest, dividends. Take a drive down to the public housing areas and look at the results of government largesse. Very simple.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:18 - ID#368244)
@ Saul ref. silver dollars

Saul, I say , what you got to lose.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:18 - ID#255151)
Kitco Bash

Been thinking about it. I think that wherever it is held, it should have a Big Screen which is hooked up to Kitco. There should be several stations where the revellers could post.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:19 - ID#26669)
themissintlink re heavy jewelry
Just one man's opinion, but have you thought about belt buckles, really tacky ones and silver electroplate followed by copper followed by tin? I mean if a person is REALLY paranoid about confiscation and all...

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:20 - ID#288369)

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:20 - ID#270265)
Gold down but is it buying or crying time?
I am a new member and an interested in the expertise of the Kitcoites. Will be on when I have a bit more time, I follow Kinross.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:23 - ID#26669)
themissinglink, serious reply.
I think that a one ounce pendant is pretty good idea but wonder about 22k instead of 24k just for the wearing qualities. Also could consider custom casting service, with the customer getting his jewelry cast while he watches if he's paranoid about losses.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:23 - ID#288369)
@Isure...of what?
Do you have two handles now?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:23 - ID#190411)
One thing about Barrick's report that you didn't mention:Why do they have to make such an expensive -high gloss paper, thick, waste of money report?
The gold's have been whacked, and yet the bigs produce more glossy paper than new reserves. See PDG,ABX,NEM, reports.
I can hardly wait until I get reports from TVX,AU,KGC,HM.
I will have a stack of wasted resources that could have been devoted to more pressing needs - get out of those hedges.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:24 - ID#344308)

the atocha......
and it'll be on the planned.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:24 - ID#330175)
Studio.R......I assume-----this bash will be NON--------------

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:26 - ID#288369)
You may "assume" all you wish. But I will be drunk.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:29 - ID#270265)
Was un winterizing mine today. I have room for three . Does the price shown from the Far East mean anything I always wondered if you could use that info to buy stock at the open here and make a point or two???

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:30 - ID#368244)

My dear friend, my names are as grains of sand, oil and gold shall not flow in the same direction... forgot who I was for a moment!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:30 - ID#411112)
themissinglink....who's going to buy this 1oz clunker...JAMES BROWN


(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:30 - ID#255151)
Kitco Bash

Should have several limos available. A full bar. Smoking IS permitted. For the non-alcohol persons there will be-what else- Buckler's Beer!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:32 - ID#330175)
Bash Brothers
Studio.R:I will be drunk & Stoned~~~~~~~~yes?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:35 - ID#330175)
Thoughts(?).......................................June Gold down 1.40 @ 311.50

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:35 - ID#288369)
I am ignorant of you have any pieces of eight or dubloons ( ducats ) er? ( sp? ) I want some bad.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:38 - ID#373403)
If they are really paranoid, I can cast a piece to fit in the heel of their shoe.

As to having non-trusting people stand over me watching to see if I am stealing from them, what makes them think I trust THEM enough to come into my back room? I can sell a $10,000 diamond ring on my say so but I can't be trusted to cast 10oz of gold? I do have a window to my bench from the showroom so that the North Shore women can watch their stones get set without me switching them. They are not allowed in the shop though.

Seriously, what sort of premium would be competitive with coin premiums? I have only ever bought fine gold casting grain. Then again, why should I bother, I can make jewelry out of the coins with alot less hassle.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:38 - ID#255151)
Bash Bros

Ted--Beer and Gold will flow in the same direction. Yes?

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:39 - ID#215208)
Bufford - SWC is located SW of Billings MT on the Stillwater River. Its snuggled up against the Beartooth mountains ( or wilderness area, one of the two ) , a magnificant area. The reef extends for more than 20 miles, as I recall, intersecting East Boulder Creek. SWC is currently in the early phases of development of a second mine at this location. I think this will consume their cash and attention in the near term and doubt they are looking at acquisitions.

While we are on the subject, all stock holders, including me, with the benefit of hindsight, were chastising SWC management for hedging their '97/'98 palladium at $135. I don't know about the rest of you, but if they want to hedge a year's production at the current $295, they have my permission.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:40 - ID#288369)
Ain't nobody's bidness what goes on behind closed floors.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:45 - ID#347196)
To All:
Given: The extreme valuations of the Dow/S&P/Market; and Given: the well formed base in OUR gold market after a long bear; and Given: the EXTREME bearishness in oil and energy stocks; and finally, Given: the linkage between gold and oil as taught to us by ANOTHER; I ask for your arguments here as to why, when the general market finally cracks, money should not flow in the same direction to both of those two most valuable sectors??? Might we not see a bull in both gold and oil? Other than a severe world wide recession/deflation, why not??
Regards; Mtn Bear

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:46 - ID#347196)
To All:
Given: The extreme valuations of the Dow/S&P/Market; and Given: the well formed base in OUR gold market after a long bear; and Given: the EXTREME bearishness in oil and energy stocks; and finally, Given: the linkage between gold and oil as taught to us by ANOTHER; I ask for your arguments here as to why, when the general market finally cracks, money should not flow in the same direction to both of those two most valuable sectors??? Might we not see a bull in both gold and oil? Other than a severe world wide recession/deflation, why not??

Regards; Mtn Bear

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:46 - ID#288369)
I'll be bringin' Pamela Sue Anderson.....babe watch...perfect attendance, now!

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:50 - ID#347196)
Double post
Sorry 'bout that!!

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:51 - ID#344308)

this is THE test to determine if you are ANOTHER

or just a-dreamin-of-tradin---for the riddle solvers..

the is it relative to this forum? and i
assure you it is...

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:52 - ID#341312)
Saul-silver dollars
Morgan and Peace dollars contain approx .77 troy oz silver so melt value at $6.43 spot is about $4.95. As LGB stated, nice VF-AU common date Morgans ( 1921 ) and Peace dollars ( 1922-P to 1925-P ) go for roughly $155 to maybe $180 for a 20 coin roll depending on spot. I'd be a little suspicious if she won't let you even *see* them. They're probably real dinged or scratched up. Still, at $5.50/coin you're only 10% over spot.
Btw, Franklin halves are also a nice way to get bullion content in a semi-numismatic coin. I've bought them at between $46 and $58 per roll recently. Silver content is .362/coin so a roll has 7.24 troy oz. This has worked out to about 25 to 30% over spot in the same VF-AU condition.
63-D Franklins seem to be quite plentiful in this grade presumably because they disappeared from circulation after only a year or two due to due to the introduction of clad coinage. Boo Hiss!! Bad Bankers!! Slap!! Slap!! Oh, well. Too late now. You have to catch them in the act, otherwise they don't understand.

(Mon Apr 13 1998 23:57 - ID#340302)
@ERLE...Japanese purchases and sales of U.S. dollars re: GOLD...
In answer to your earlier question... why are the Japanese not simply purchasing gold or silver and replacing U.S. Dollar reserves with PM support?

Unfortunately, in the short term, the Japanese are "victims" of the extant global financial status quo. If they were to announce to the world today that all U.S. dollar trade is suspended and future trade will no longer be conducted in anything but gold and silver, then they would be regarded like some deranged loner with a rifle sitting atop a tower somewhere. It would be an effective declaration of war against the United States.

No...there is a war developing against the American hegemony of the global financial system...however, it will be insidious and will not originate with only one country but rather various collectives of countries, slowly but steadily replacing U.S. dollar reserves with new regional currency standards. In no time at all, Americans will wake up one day to see a global currency revolution has developed right under their collective noses.

The EURO kicks off the new currency wars...and an Asian Currency Standard will represent the next prong of the attack.

How long will it take before we witness the full fledged war? That, of course, is the million dollar question.

My own guess is that it will be sooner than later. The main trigger to such a currency debacle lies in any potential collapse in the value of the U.S. buck ( possibly precipitated by a U.S. stock/bond market collapse ) .

When such a problem develops, then the various national collectives may very well hasten the replacement of their U.S. Dollar reserves.

However, I doubt that one single country ( like Japan ) will unilaterally trigger the currency wars.

Yet, it is interesting to note that U.S. treasuries liquidation seems to be much higher than U.S. dollar purchases to support the Yen. Where are all those excess dollars going?

Gold and silver purchases maybe.....hmmmmmm?