G-Nutz
!!! Rubin just turned BULLISH on Gold Nuggets !!!
Look!!!
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Speaking of reading, take a look at Nick's STOP LOSS post at 1:11. That's the whole secret right there. DON'T HOLD ONTO A LOSING PROPOSITION. Everybody takes losses on investments. The trick is to TAKE them. Never buy a gold stock without deciding at what price you have been proven wrong. If the stock hits that price - SELL IT.
You can always buy it back again. Or you might find something better. The point is simply if you hang onto a stock that's going down, three ver bad things happen.
You are losing money
You are losing opportunities in other investments
You are getting soured on investment in general.
Right on, Nick!
But if you read my newsletter or my website, you will know that I have left the same preface on my Gold commentary page unchanged since I started posting it over two years ago: 'GOLD IS THE POLITICAL METAL'.
There are some VERY important meetings coming up in Washington. I must admit to some surprise that Gold did not retreat further last week, although I know that it was down in intra-day trading almost every day.
As far as I am concerned, this latest move is entirely intact as long as Gold stays above the $Us 295 level. If it breaks through $310, and stays there, I will be as comfortable as I have been since 1976 not only have we seen the bottom, but that Gold is going to go up from there.
I'm not going to go into great detail on these upcoming ( G-7, IMF etc. ) Washington meetings. I dealt with them in detail in the latest issue of The Privateer. Suffice it to say here that the most significant development I have seen in quite some time is Rubin's PUBLIC approval of the Bank of Japan's intervention in the currency markets last Thursday.
Us, and them
And after all we're only ordinary men
Me, and you
God only knows it's not what we would choose to do
Forward he cried from the rear
and the front rank died
And the General sat, and the lines on the map
moved from side to side
Black and blue
And who knows which is which and who is who
Up and Down
And in the end it's only round and round and round
Haven't you heard it's a battle of words
the post bearer cried
Listen son, said the man with the gun
There's room for you inside
Down and Out
It can't be helped but there's a lot of it about
With, without
And who'll deny that's what the fighting's all abouut
Get out of the way, it's a busy day
and I've got things on my mind
For the want of the price of tea and a slice
The old man died
Yes,and here we have Another teacher to the gold shorts to be........
http://www.mtnlake.com/%7erobp/PICTURES/ART/TRIAL.JPG
OK..........and here we have Ted's new lookout point on the island....
http://www.mtnlake.com/%7erobp/PICTURES/ART/FLOGO.JPG
Thats about it.
Oh ya,I think LGB ( Local Gold Basher ) is the REAL Andy in drag.....
G'Night From Me..Good Morning To You...........
Just got an email from a friend, asking my thoughts about a merger between Marrak Gold and Durban Roodeport Deep.
This isn't on my radar screen - does anyone out there know of such a merger, and the possible impact?
TIA
So far, we love Albuquerque.
Also, the POG has been doing better since the relocation.
Of course, in the virtual village of the net we are only a few nanoseconds apart. That's why they call it the World Wide Wait.
Latest rumor: Due to a Y2K bug Clinton will be in office until 2003. Any support for that?
$312/oz sure beats $278/oz.
Now, what's this stuff about Bill Buckler really knowing how to read a gold chart? Come on gang, its just so typical. A prophet ( and even a profit ) in his own land, etc. I'm here almost all the time, and where is Buckler? Maybe he posts here once a month, throwing scraps to the Kitco pack of dogs. But HE is the big chart reader. Sure! And he's saying practically just what I've been saying. Here, I'll post it again because it really is worth your reading folks...last person I relayed this to was on demand by a Hindu astrologer. I think you guys and gals are at least equally deserving...
"Judging from the channel gold seems to be etching here, there's room for one more wavelet up to 319. Resistance might come in there. If so, and there's a failure, we could see a retracement to about the 296ish level, with the uptrend
and embryonic bull still breathing. Remember, Easter signifies that we no longer have to sacrifice animals to please the Almighty, so I say let the bull go free, and
sin no more ( the hard part ) . An upside penetration of the upper line of this current intermediate term price channel will take us to 330 by the end of April. Possible new resistance comes in there. IMVHO, of course. So 319 is critical
here. The shares may be a tad overbought, technically, but in the early stages of a good rise, that condition can persist for startlingly long periods of time. PDG, for
instance, on the weekly chart looks like it has either begun to reverse, or is ready to put in a straight line upweek or two blast off."
Not sure what you meant. I like Bema as a trading vehicle. I sold mine this morning at C$3.80 for a C$.50 per share profit. I bought it on Feb 27. Not so bad.
Although the POG is up this morning, nothing has changed from my post last Thursday ( The Ugly Truth ) in my mind. The senior gold stocks are not responding to the rise in the gold price. They should be leading if this is for real.
Of course, in a bull market, there are many upside surprises. But I still think today is giving us a good opportunity to lighten up on gold producers.
Myrmiddon, you are not doing badly with PDLCF. It's been bouncing between its 100- and 200-day MA. I think it's just a matter of time before it breaks over the 200-day and moves substantially higher.
The Preacher
I ran a computer check on top 1000 items in my store , taking cost now
as opposed to 12 months ago. Cost now, +12.7% over year ago.
Inflation , deflation... you figure!
This seems ominous to me, and I think we should try to find what is happening. If faith is fading in Japan's Big Bang solution, then we could have a serious deflationary process looming in front of us -- possibly as severe as the recent SEAsian event back in October. This will be very bearish for gold bullion and stocks, unfortunately, since the Japanese could be tempted to sell their gold.
I have a few facts to add to this scenario -- much of it from a 'US News and World Report' issue, dated Apr 13, 1998:
1 ) The average Japanese has little debt and extensive savings in their postal system -- $11 trillion worth ( dollars? ) .
2 ) Foreign investment firms are eagerly ready to encourage the Japanese to invest outside Japan.
3 ) Foreign investers are interested in buying Japanese realestate at '10c on the dollar', according to the article.
4 ) Most of bad Japanese debt is in real estate, and 40% of that is controlled by the Yakuza, which are more than a match for any foreign investor who desires Japanese real estate.
5 ) Even local Japanese banks and other creditors have little success in collecting bad debts from the Yakuza, who are 8,000 strong, and firmly entrenched.
The last quote of the USN&WR article says it all: 'As the Japanese like to say, dealing with the Yakuza is like feeding a tiger. If you try to stop, the tiger will eat you'
My assessment is that the 'big bang' will fail to resolve the problems with bad real estate loans in Japan, simply because no one there can deal with the Yakuza -- certainly not foreign investors. So -- will many Japanese banks be forced to close their doors, as a consequence? I think so. Just imagine what it would be like in the USA if the Resolution Trust had roughly twice the bad debt they to deal with, and the Savings and Loans were all run by bonafide Yakuza-type gangsters.
I think we should be watching Japan very carefully -- our gold rally might make a turn for the worse if the Japanese are forced to sell their gold. If this happens, it will be interesting to see who does the buying. Probably some European Central banks, or China.
And -- are the hedge funds going to attack the Japanese Yen?
In this light, I reviewed the trends in the 1929 era, versus the current era. In 1929 the US markets were also the strongest, and the last to collapse, probably very similar to what is happening now. I compared 1929 era and 1990's era market blowoffs, using 'Price rate of change', in percent. My reasoning was that this would show the market mania behavior better than total long term market growth, which overall is greater now than it was in the 20's. I do not have comparative info on P/E ratios, earnings growth, or market volume, but I do have one fact that I got out of my new W95 software upgrade: The final price blowoff surge in June 1928 - June 1929 was approximately 8 times stronger than the most recent price blowoff surge in Oct 96 to Mar 97, on a percent rise basis. Extending the time to a one year perod with two surges still would indicate a 4 to 1 differential.
So -- if I am right, we are nowhere near a final blowoff stage equivalent to the great 1929 era - yet, anyway.
I would be very interested in other opinions about this, as I think our US market bull has a more than a year to go before a major correction, barring major external shocks. It is also very likely that we will have a concomitant gold rally by the professionals who are starting to 'flee to the exits'.
What I am describing is an Indonesia - grade meltdown, perhaps precipitated by a Hedge fund attack on the Yen. Not long ago, I would have said that this was unlikely, given the assets of the average Japanese. But -- recently we have learned how much the average Japanese distrust their own Japanese bureacracy, which is riddled with ( Yakuza ) corruption. So -- the Japanese financial system may be a house of cards, waiting for the smallest breeze to bring it down. If you do not believe me that a Japanese meltdown would be bearish for gold ( and the world markets ) , you should read some of Rudi Dornbusch's comments.
I hope I am wrong about this -- and eagerly await news from the International bankers. I will not add to my gold position until I see some resolution to the Japan situation.
Until the Japanese leaders come to terms with their debt problems, they are at risk for financial implosion.
I think your mutual dialogue brings out one highly significant point, and that is that agreement is possible, even on Kitco.
Hope all is well in your part of the world. My Windows 95 is mostly installed, but I am still behind on e-mail duties and some other tasks still not fully functional.
National Budget Simulation Game http://garnet.berkeley.edu:3333/budget/budget-1.html
American Council for Capital Formation
Macroeconomic Advisors...see its monthly list of indicators http://www.macroadvisers.com/
US Monitary policy page FRBM http://woodrow.mpls.frb.fed.us/info/policy/
US Bureau of Economic Analysis page
bankruptcy data link
http://www.cdt-creditdata.com/
Editorial about welfare reform issues http://www.igc.apc.org/handsnet2/welfare.reform/Articles/art.889037577.html
Homelessness info page ( also heavily editorialized )
I doubt that the South Korean people voluntarily gave all of their gold to their government. They may have been coerced.
Who might be interested in buying cheap gold?
Hint: the initials are G.S. ( etal? )
My point is that as B. Buckler and others have said, gold is a 'political metal', unfortunately, and subject to deflationary surprises unless you happen to be in the country where the collapse is occuring, such as South Korea. I sometimes wonder why I persist in being a gold bug, when there are other precious metals that are easier to understand. But -- the insurance and the eventual rewards are admittedly substantial.
Buy the way, I only have about 1/3 of my liquid assets in gold/gold stocks, awaiting proof of a rally. How about you?
I would love to know what the BIS had over the US. Perhaps they still do, and are using it now to get some control over the actions of the IMF and the US. Could it be that the gold in Fort Knox actually belongs to the BIS?
Unfortunately I do not think the BIS has the clout to make the EURO 100% backed by gold, or something similar. My guess is that the outcome of a current battle between the BIS and the US/IMF will be a rise in the price of gold, but not to the degree of what happened in the 70's. We may have a bumpy road, however, if something happens to Japan on the way.
Why not use that formidable intellect of yours ( and your economics connections ) , and find out what secret weapon the BIS has to control the USA? It is some sort of debt instrument that is perpetually being rolled over, according to Anthony C. Sutton. He probably knows. If we understand this, we may better understand what is going on behind the scenes.
Interesting times, aren't they?
( gold bugs? ) . I became enamored of the yellow stuff in my pre-teen days
reading about pirates and chests of gold.
Intrigued by your handle - the wife says it was a comic strip and I say it was a food prepared by my mother. go gold
For protecting them ( troops ) , by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:
For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:
For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:
For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:
For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.
He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.
He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.
He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.
The rest are at http://www.nara.gov/exhall/charters/declaration/declaration.html
However, the US current account deficit is expected to
widen substantially and there may be warning signs for
the dollar, for monetary policy and, consequently, for the stockmarket.
"There is the potential for a change in sentiment toward
the dollar at some future stage," the IMF notes, "which
would reverse one of the temporary factors that has been
helping to hold down US inflation. If world commodity
prices were to recover at the same time and labour
market pressures continued to push up wage growth, the
Federal Reserve could face the need for significant
tightening of monetary conditions, and both bond and
stockmarkets might be subject to significant corrections.
Buy, Buy , Buy , and hold on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't invest all my money in GOLD!! HA, HA!!!!
The part I liked the most was one about artificial life. One program consisted on a bunch of 'birds' with very simple independent motion, but all programmed with the same built-in 'desire' to be with other 'birds',as well as some other rules that were later individually 'learned' with a simple algorithm as the birds flew. After several iterations, they always flew in flocks, and if one collided with a pole or other object, it would flutter about, and then join the flock. Reminds one of the markets.
Another more interesting case was the replacement of the bird model with a simple model of a 'flock' of investors, each one given the desire for a profit, and rules of trading for a single stock -- equity value based on earning, P/E ratio,etc. The rules were elementary. Initially, the stock price rose to a certain level, and stagnated. The experimenters became puzzled, and gave up for a while. They came back many hours later, an found the stock price oscillating between two values, as if the many virtual investors had collectively developed a trading model.
All of this was nearly ten years ago -- I wonder what is happening now! EG, with a little more thought, one could probably design a very nice economic model based on these multiple little individual, independent programs. Just imagine what one could do if a little 'irrationality' was added! Market manias in a black box!
Now for something lighter.....I AM TOLD THIS IS A TRUE STORY!! happened in Richmond B.C.
Neighbor A has a dog in his fenced yard. His friend neighbor B next door buys a little white bunny rabbit and builds a small bunny hut for the pet, then places it near the fence bordering neighbor A. The dog, being curious about the new 'thing' next door creates a disturbance with his increased barking and running back and forth along the fence, unable to get at the rabbit. This does tick off the neighbors and frightens the rabbit. So, to settle things down, neighbor B moves the rabbit hut and rabbit around to the other side of his house out of sight of the dog. Things settle down to normal.
Neighbor B leaves town for a few days. While he is away, neighbor A, having actually forgotten about the rabbit, leaves the side gate of his yard open thus allowing his dog free roam.
About an hour or two later, he sees his dog trotting proudly around his back yard with the rabbit, dead, very muddy but unmangled, in its mouth. He is horrified that his dog has killed the rabbit, and wanting to be a good neighbor, but not willing to admit to his oversight in letting his dog loose, decides that he will quickly take action before his neighbor returns. He cleans the rabbit, to the point of drying its fur with a hair dryer, and carefully puts the rabbit back into its cage, hoping that the owner will believe that the rabbit died of natural causes.
Seeing the neighbor next day, he casually asks how his trip was. The reply is 'OK', but that something relly strange has happened. Just before he was to leave, his rabbit had died, and not having time to properly dispose of it, he had temporarily buried it at the back of his yard. But upon his return the rabbit was back in its cage, but dead!. He thinks he may have buried te rabbit too hastily as it was probably not dead, and that it had dug its way out of its temporary dirt grave and found its way back to its cage. But the strangest thing was that it was totally clean, and he cannot for the life of himself, figure out that part of the puzzle!!
If you realy want to talk gold up, you need a bigger audience.
It seems to be an ongoing thing, so, I would like your opinions.
They spent, on this one seemingly unexpected support operation, about eight billion USD.
Today, I have seen numbers in the range of $Twelve billion in treasury paper sold by them today, alone.
If I wanted to support my currency, as in the days of yore, I would have increased my country's Au holdings.
For the $8,000,000,000. divided by $320.00/OZ equals 25,000,000 OZ gold. Twenty-five million OZ makes Belgian, Argentine, Australian, Candian ,etc., sales pale. I had a few other points, but, : Is gold MONEY anymore?
Saul, I say , what you got to lose.
My dear friend, my names are as grains of sand, oil and gold shall not flow in the same direction... forgot who I was for a moment!
While we are on the subject, all stock holders, including me, with the benefit of hindsight, were chastising SWC management for hedging their '97/'98 palladium at $135. I don't know about the rest of you, but if they want to hedge a year's production at the current $295, they have my permission.
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