Are you going to give us the answer? I'm just ANOTHER untrader.

its value is melt....besides have you seen how ugly a 1oz coin looks round someones neck.....visions of 70's disco ducks come to mind hence the reference to JB

Thanks for asking. The short answer to your question is yes, gold is still money. It is the one real money that is recognized anywhere, regardless of which country happened to coin it. It is the real money of foreign exchange. Don't know how much time you have, but if you are sincere in wanting to understand exactly how it works, you could not do better than to scan back to April 11, and just use your Control-F search function for SDRer's posts. He has been offering a great gift, a course in international finance, using clear language and explicit examples to clarify this very issue. It isn't really easy reading, and the first time through, you might want to just bookmark but not read his references. Gold is, without a doubt, money. Only those who want you to be happy trading pieces of fiat currency would be so foolish to state otherwise. The game seems to be forcing people to accept a currency without backing in their exchanges within the borders of a country, while reserving the "real money" for inter-bank transactions and foreign exchange.

Kaplan has it completely wrong. The specs have been the smart money in gold these past few years, not the commercials. The commercials were net long and the specs net short all the way down.

He is also wrong on a near-term blowoff. To the contrary, the relatively weak action of the gold stocks these past few days portends some short-term weakness in the gold sector. Once this latest correction runs it's course ( probably with XAU at 80-82 ) get ready for a big move to the upside.

So gold coins only retain their premium in mint condition? What if they get scuffed in a roll?

very soon.

James Brown is an elegant dresser, and if he chooses to accessorize with glamourous gold coinage...the whole fashion world will stand up and take notice. JB is elegance defined.

As long as the POG isn't going down, I am happy. If it wants to rest awhile after it's first flight of stairs why are we all questioning it's motives? It's ready to take off.

As I mentioned in my previous post, the Japanese most likely do not wish to engage in a unilateral economic war against the U.S. It seems to me they would need many global allies in order to succeed. However, such consensus will not likely manifest itself overnight

However, if the Japanese simply wished to impress upon the American Establishment the imperative of greater co-operation ( and fewer intimidation tactics ) in the creation of a more equitable global financial system, then a roughly $50 million dollar purchase of the entire COMEX gold inventory might just do the trick.

It would be a mere gesture...but just imagine its impact!

Thanks.

F*

Just reread your post. Specifically as regard the Japanese sale of treasuries, they held US notes and sold them, just as they might sell your mortgage note, if they hold one of yours. There are games being played with US currency because it is bereft of any backing, so is fair game. That a the game is afoot was announced by Hashimoto at Columbia University last June, in his speech there. This relates only peripherally to the gold-as-money question you posed.

I didn't suggest that Japan renounce dollar holdings, I merely question; Why don't they reinforce their CB gold holdings? One doesn't have to make a spectacle of it. It seems to me, that no country is supporting their currency in the manner that it was done in the past. Where is the rise in POG? Perhaps the CB's are so screwy that they don't realise what a gift they are being given by the low POG, or, gold isn't going to be money for a long period, if ever again.

Who says that the Japanese, Chinese, or any other CB isn't buying gold? With the LBMA seeing over 930 tonnes of gold traded daily, and ain't nobody's business but my own who's doing the buying and selling? Just makes that little Belgian sale of last month sound like somebody's dust bunny.

1. 6781-- Go here and enter 6781-- http://www.inferencefind.com/infind/

You have just answered two of my questions at once. The control-f function-I was unaware of. Thanks many times over.
As for Mr. SDRer, He is the one who prompted my question. I have been reading his posts. I merely ask about the practical applications of his posts.

Did you know? That Buddy Holly and Elvis Presleys auto- graphs were worth 5oz. gold each. Got em both! I is a collecting fool.

coins in jewelery,it's the same as a
cancelled stamp......granted if a coin is put
in a bezel and great care is taken you could
retain the premium...I'am just speaking as a
dealer and someone walks in with a piece like
that, you are right about uncirculated coins
they are the only ones that hold there
premium.....even with bag marks,which most
have

Please doublecheck your link. I've tried it various ways and can't get in.

Oops. Try this-- http://www.inference.com/infind/

http://www.fibblesnork.com/lego/guide/space/set/6781-1.html

Hi Saul, LGB again at home. re your question on the $5.50 each silver dollar deal.

If they were collected 40 years ago, there's a much better chance that "better" dates, EF to AU coins, etc. will be in the mix, rather than just a bunch of beat up 1921's and Peace dollars. Back then, the Numismatic premium on most common date Morgan dollars, ( And some of the better Peace dollars ) was very small to non existant.

At $5.50 per coin, you're so close to melt that you have little to lose. If it were me, given your situation, and knowing no more, and if I trusted that the woman was telling the truth about when they accumulated them, I'd jump on it! ( And I'm a part time coin dealer... )

LGB ( Biting ear...... )

I still don't get it. Time to put this brain to bed.

http://www.melfisher.com/giftshop/acoina.html

mtnberry--!; )

here is what is going to set crude on fire before the y2k..

the wannabees in the middle east and europe know the us
coalition has been shattered, as they planned. they also
know the us--due to klinton--has given them the edge needed,
and prayed for, since israel burst upon the scene with menachem ( pm )
begin, bombing and murdering to gain their home-land. israel
was borne from blood-shed....so is her legacy......and the
fanatic muslims count the days...as israel counts the fanatic
muslims, for their body-bags.

it is all bill klintons fault......at the be-hest of the apathetic
american peopleo.........what a pathetic representation of that
which is supposed to be great.......my ass.

what the hell is happening to the grains? who would of guessed?nrhiaah

read on......buy gold and crude calls.......they're cheap..time is short.

http://www.aci.net/kalliste/mewar.htm

cherokee!; ) .......

Yes, I have read Mr. Hashiomto's comments.sp? What I am getting at is: Japan CB has vast piles of issue from US Treasury ( oxymoron ) . Why don't they just tell Mr. Rubin that the game is up?
"We will mount a campaign to support our currency from attack. We will do it as quietly as can be done. We will cooperate with the treasury dept of the US as much as can be done, but, we will not allow the assets of Japan to be put into recievership, and sold for a pittance."
I am not being lucid about this. All I am getting at is that Japan hasn't used the classical means of currency support.
IDCIBM- as a state policy.

Where are LBMA sales reported?

Wow. That Atocha Silver Piece of Eight was beautiful.

greater autographs don't exist. WOW!!!! studio.greenwithenvy....nytol~~~~~~~~~~say g'nite, teddO.

hot damn----form 6781

is the irs form to report LOSSES or GAINS from futures
or options.......whooooooooo.....whoooooooooo.....whooooooooo
as curly would say...

No luck so far. Anyone figure out the 6781 riddle. Lookin for clues!

He's a sneaky one!

... because most gold companies are much leaner now, and more efficient.

When gold goes to $400 the gold stocks will ascend to higher highs than those they held in the previous $400 Au level.

The XAU this time may appear to run ahead of the metal, which will be normal considering the change in fundamentals of gold stocks. Don't be fooled and sell out early.

...will send a message to America. If they choose gold to be the vehicle for this message, then maybe it will take this form:

WE DON'T CARE...WE'RE BUYING MORE
WE DON'T CARE...WE'RE BUYING MORE
WE DON'T CARE...WE'RE BUYING MORE

And should the Japanese send the preceding message, Americans need not be shocked. After all, in a sense, this message encapsulates the Americans' amazingly insensitive attitudes toward S.E. Asia's current woes...their battered currencies...their abrupt economic deprivations.

The current American Wall Street Bull Mantra is really no more than a revision of the NEW GOLD PARADIGM chant...and it goes something like this:

WE DON'T CARE...WE'RE JUST BUYING YOUR CHEAPER GOODS
WE DON'T CARE...WE'RE JUST BUYING YOUR CHEAPER GOODS
WE DON'T CARE...WE'RE JUST BUYING YOUR CHEAPER GOODS

Hmmmm?

Thanks.

F*

I posted my cycle based thoughts on Homestake Mines a month or so ago, saying that we were working our way up to the edge of a cliff from which a sharp drop would follow.
My estimate was a little off. Originally I was looking for a rally no further that the $10's and it actually touched just over $12 on what Mr. Greenspan might call irrational exuberance.
It seems to me that there was a lot of talk for a few days of $30,000 gold. The January to April rally in Elliot terms looks like a simple a, b, c ziz-zag with the b breaking down into a typical little a, b, c. My cycle work ( mathematical model ) is fluid and changes slightly based on new data points being introduced into the time series, however I still show Homestake falling sharply with the first leg ending in June, a small rally and the final bottom in August, before the great bull market slowly starts.
I still show the bottom being under $2 per share with a possibility that on the August dip that the floor will be kissed for a day or two.
One point I would like to make is that when religion is involved that rationality isn't. That is why religion is based on faith, not logic or evidence. It seems that for some that gold has become a religion and that the idea of making money is secondary to the worship of the metal.
If I am correct then a lot of the faithful will be soon full of woe. I like the metals as objects, particularly silver. I like the smell of it, particularly since that smell reminds me of the cigar box that my grandfather kept his loose change in for his grandchildren to spend on visits, but that does not make me willing to sacrafice financial gain while worshiping at the precious metal alter.

FWIW, that strategy of investing in Gold Stocks for the ride to $400 sounds like a good idea. Might just nibble at some DROOY, RANGY, etc. Hell, might even throw a buck or two into Lihir and ABX!

CHEESESPREAD suggested VENGOLD as an alternative to LIHIR so I got into it as well. VENGOLD owns 10% of LIHIR stock, the symbol is VENGF.

I got DROOY, last week I doubled on RANGY, and now I am waiting for HARMONY ( HGMCY ) .

AZTEC, did you buy HARMONY today? If so, congradulations and good luck.

The fundamentals as I said earlier have changed. Most gold companies have now significantly reduced production costs and the XAU will outperform its previous performance. Be aware. When companies start upvaluing their reserves then we are not going to believe what we see.

Just read your 01:28. IMO, that was a good, honest post of your reading of the Gold market. My guess though, is that Gold will hit $400 before it hits $250. Thoughts?

Eligible stocks increased today as the did in early March, price dropped slightly for the next three days and then continued UP. Stock levels we have now in gold are close to those on March 26th ( 159,474 ) which jumped to 182,784 on March 27th. Today we had 143,071 jump by 16,075 ounces to 159,146 ounces. The general trend is DOWN for eligible COMEX GOLD STOCKS.

"Recent thoughts--that the soon-to-be-formed European
Central Bank will hold more gold than was once feared--again
lent strength to gold, said Guy Gleichmann, senior trader at
Futures Trading Group.

He also pointed to weakness in the U.S. stock and bond
markets as one of the factors that helped gold move higher
today

Gleichman related that of 10 daily indicators he
monitors, five gave him a positive reading for the short-
term outlook of gold, while four were neutral and one was
negative.
"Although some of the momentum indicators on the daily
charts are slowing to a neutral to negative reading, the
breakout which occurred on April 3 from a low of ( around )
$303 to $310 is still valid," he continued. "We are now in a
pennant formation of a bull flag."
Trendline support remains around $297 in the June gold,
said Gleichmann. He put Fibonacci support levels at $308.60,
$303.40, $299.20 and $295.10. Meanwhile, Gann support lies
at $301, he added.
"We have in place an upside Gann target of $320," he
continued. "The next one in place above that--which is not
really relevant right now--is at $365."
Gleichmann added that "the weekly chart formation is
very bullish," giving him nine positive readings and one
neutral. He put longer-term support from the weekly charts
at $292.
"Based on the cycle, June gold is set to challenge, we
believe, $317, which was last week's high, then the Gann
target of $320," said Gleichmann. "A close below $303.40
would be needed to neutralize the rally."
From a fundamental standpoint, he commented, gold's
recent price breakout has coincided with rhetoric from a
number of European central bankers, which has led to the
optimism about future central bank holdings.

Also, Gleichmann noted that when the Belgian central
bank sold some 9.6 million ounces of gold last month,
officials indicated that their sales program was essentially
over. "That may have signaled the end of the bad news on
central bank selling," said the senior trader.
He reminded that a key for the future, however, will be
the level that the soon-to-be-formed European Central Bank
does decide to hold, which won't be known until May or
June.
Gleichmann said he suspects the U.S. stock market is
about to hit a plateau and may be due for a downside
correction."


New York-April 13-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX GOLD
warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

TOTAL REGISTERED
475,158 0 0 0 0 475,158
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
143,071 16,075 0 16,075 0 159,146
COMBINED TOTAL
618,229 16,075 0 16,075 0 634,304


Silver

TOTAL REGISTERED
0 0 33,795,629
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
1,230,870 0 54,313,063
COMBINED TOTAL
1,230,870 0 88,108,692


New York-April 13-FWN--COMEX ESTIMATED VOLUMES

TOTAL ESTIMATED VOLUMES
Gold 13,000
Silver 8,000
H.G. Copper 6,000


Goodnight

I show a straight move down from here. I don't analyze the gold market directly, only Homestake Mines, however, I think that if Homestake kisses the floor that gold will not likely be moving up. I just cannot see $400 gold until 1999 at the earliest. I agree with the posts that mining companies have been forced to become more efficient, which can cut both ways. If there were to be a bull run now, then certainly the mining companies would for a while squeeze more profit out of an ounce, but if the bear growls again, then there is less cost cutting that can be done to save the ship.
The shares are certainly more out on a limb now that is gold. Homestake for example gained 50% from its January low and this is a company losing money. If my work is even close to correct a lot good people will take a slamming.

Gold will surely hit $400, but sorry, no $250.
ANOTHER said that the BIS will buy all gold available
below $280 and I believe him. Even if he is wrong,
the Kitcoites will get it at $275.

Even if the Kitcoites don't get it at $275, Soros will, Buffett, Greenspan, Rubin,
... even Camdessus if he escapes from the hands of Tolerant1 !!!

...the hallucinogenic drugs you are taking.

I could always use some.

Thanks.

F*

Sheesh, now what. The moon or the gutter.

Yes. If you are right on Gold, then HM will fall Big Time. Are you thinking Gold will hit $250 before it hits $400?

Not only Homestake gained 50% from its low, but so did
Hecla, Battle Mountain, TVX, Kinross, Meridian, and many
others who continue to lose money. Jeil, the problem with charts
is that you are extrapolating history, not always a good idea.

ABX is up about 50%, one would have expected a better performance.
Same with Newmond Gold.

Read the law until you think like a lawman; not lawyer, but lawman.
*********
The dream merchants peddle dreams, fantasies, and false visions. Behold in our time the new mode of The Graven Image. The Image. The ignorant are the prey of every charlatan, sorcerer, magician, and demon of demoncracy. The people perish for lack of knowledge.
**************
2BOR02B said: 1. a unit of account 2. a medium of exchange 3. a store of value
The functions of money in their order of priority.
Gold is the sine qua non unit of account because mankind is weak. Mankind will falsify the entries in the ledger, will lie, defraud, conceal and reveal to deceive, to save face, to gain, to avoid, evade loss. Dishonest mankind must have honest money else fraud unopposed by the truth of substance will destroy the foundations. Examine the foundations. What do you see ?

The mill of truth grinds slow in the affairs of man, but exceeding fine.
************

Date: Mon Apr 13 1998 22:42
themissinglink ( New piece of jewelry on the way ) ID#373403:

I am no expert, but I think that coming out with designs that are simple and exciting like those used in the POGs craze of a few yesars ago would get alot of Americans ... excited. If you can sell over the internet you may be able to get away with a small mark up -- but if you can sell in the $30 to $60 dollar range I don't think the public would mind the prices even if you had higher margins.

I would think they would make GREAT gifts - simple straight forward designs. With gold at these low prices, you may well excite the general public with these SUPER GOLDEN POGs.

I want to see the mines themselves sell 1/10 or 1/20 ounce slugs that represent the mines form which they came. I would love to have a collection from around the world.

Goodnight, and the best of luck with your designs

I might like to try something that would take me away on occasion, hovever, the only drug I habitully take is Tums ( and sugar free at that ) to help me deal with the stress of risk taking. Maybe it is the handful of high quality vitamins that I take daily or the careful diet that gives me these wierd views.
In any event we won't have long to find out if my venture into future finding is rational or folly. The summer is just around the corner, and if turns out I am wrong, I will still be happy because my third grandchild will have arrived by then, and I will be happily spending time getting to know her.
If gold goes up from here you can send me an "I told you so" message, and I will do the same for you should it turn out that I have the combination to the vault.

Farfel for the nth time I am telling you that the message was posted on the Yahoo IBM board. Go to this URL and click on message 1106. Then read it. Please do.

After I posted it the stock started taking a dive and closed down
$2 3/16. They will accuse us for the IBM demise. Dangerous stuffffff!

http://messages.yahoo.com/?action=q&board=IBM

All,
Just a small pcs of news from the "haze" region!Read on:
Pick this up from today's paper:

"LARGE-SCALE social unrest could erupt in Java and other parts of Indonesia in the next six
months if the government fails to rescue the country's ailing economy and push back rising food
prices, analysts said. They said that 60 per cent or 120 million Indonesians living in villages and
engaged in agriculture in Java were now "politically dormant" but were on the verge of becoming
politically "alive" if the economic crisis deepened.

"The worst-case scenario for Indonesia is when large numbers of people from the villages join
forces with those in the cities in demonstrations," said political sociologist Lukman Sutrisno from the
Gajah Mada University in Yogyakarta on Sunday. He said signs were emerging of developments
that could push political forces in this direction ...

"If there is instability at grassroots level, there will be general instability at national level." ...

SUHARTO Administration will fall. Better braced yourself. The worse is yet to come!


More....need help!
Anyone can show me a site where i can study Future and options course.Your helps are greatly appreaciated.

regards,
JIN
( cssamtrue@hotmail.com )

Well stated. I appreciate the viewpoint from the loyal opposition. But, $400 before $250, eh?

~~~..~~~

I would venture a guess that most of the posters on Kitco understand the paper money scam. Yes it is a bubble. Yes is will eventually contract. Every great paper expansion has ultimately been followed by a return to the gold standard. Some of them have been gone very far before contracting, however. Witness the great German expansion between the two World Wars. Until enough people feel the pain, there is not a smidgen of a change that those who benefit from his scam will step aside.
So it all comes down to a question of timing to jump on the PM bandwagon, and all I am saying is that my own work shows that you present bulls are a little ahead of schedule. That may not matter to some of you, but to me a paper loss is a real loss and I do not choose watch my assest erode down to near nothing. I would rather wait and buy at close to nothing and then watch a return of 100's of times my investment.

LIHIR trades ADRs in the US with symbol LIHRY ( you already know ) .
One US ADR of LIHRY is equal to 20 LIHIR shares ( you already know ) .

That is why the price of the ADR is $29 3/4 ( and this you know but some lurkers may benefit from the info ) . Also Battle Mountain Gold ( BMG ) owns 8.3% of LIHIR stock.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in your previous prediction did you not say you believed that there would be a big drop in late March, a really sharp move down during the first 3 weeks of April, followed by a bounce and a small further decline into about May 15th...then buy.

MARSHALLS REPORTEDLY AGAIN
CONSIDERING NUCLEAR WASTE DUMP
Tuesday 14 April, 1998 ( 2:33pm AEST )




The Marshall Islands Government is reportedly again
considering a proposal for a nuclear waste dump.

Last June, Marshall Islands President, Imata Kabua, decided
not to proceed with a feasibility study for a waste dump, and
imposed an indefinite freeze on the project.

But the Marshall Islands Cabinet has decided to allow the
feasability study to go ahead and has authorised a company
called Enviro-Safe Technologies to conduct the study.

It's understood the study will be conducted at NO cost to the
Marshall Islands Government, and that the company has paid
a three million U-S dollar grant to the Government.

The Marshall Islands Government has been trying to set up a
waste dump since 1994, but various plans have attracted
strong opposition.

...in U.S. dollar terms by historical standards.

Jeil, here is an interesting article for Kitcoites. When the IMF ( obedient sheepdog of the U.S.A. ) is posting warnings about an imminent stock market collapse, then that is truly something. Take note of the final line re: "no fear of large adverse consequences"....hmmm, then why mention it, right Jeil?


April 14, 1998
NEW YORK TIMES

I.M.F. Warns U.S. That Markets Could Tumble

By DAVID E. SANGER

WASHINGTON -- The International Monetary Fund said on Monday that while the United States was likely to ride out the remainder of the Asian financial crisis largely unscathed, the American stock and bond markets were increasingly vulnerable to a major fall.

The assessment was contained in a survey of world economies, published as finance ministers from around the world began arriving in Washington to assess the impact of the Asian crisis and debate how the world should react to such shocks in the future.
The meeting comes as Congress is debating whether to increase the United States' contribution to the monetary fund by $18 billion, a step opposed by many Republicans and some Democrats.

In the survey, the fund lowered its projections for world economic growth for the second time in four months, predicting that it would slow to 3.1 percent from 4.1 percent a year ago.

The major drag on world growth, the report suggested, would come from Japan, which the fund's economists said in polite language would be lucky to post zero percent growth this year. Other economists are predicting that Japan could slip into a deep recession that might drag down much of the rest of the world.

Such projections will almost certainly keep Japanese officials on the defensive this week. Already they have been attacked by European and Asian nations for a slow and insufficient response to their country's financial slide.

Predictably, the United States received the best marks for the management of its national finances over the last year, and the monetary fund projected that inflation would remain low through the rest of the year, in part because of a flood of low-priced Asian imports.

But the fund warned that American stock prices were currently "at or very near historical peaks." The fund's chief economist, Michael Mussa, said at a news conference that a sharp fall in the market was "a risk that should warrant concern at this point in time".

"There needs to be concern about the possibility of an equity market correction," he said, "but I don't have any reason at this stage to fear that there would be large adverse consequences from such a correction."

...that has sold off most of its gold reserves. Jeil, it is truly a sad development for such a great nation. Unfortunately, once again, the world currency markets continue to deliver a negative assessment of Canada's past strategy of removing the gold support behind its dollar.


Tuesday, April 14, 1998

Market caught off guard by C$'s drop

By DAVID THOMAS
Economics Reporter The Financial Post
The C$ tumbled nearly half a cent yesterday, falling back below the US70 level for the first time since mid-February. The Bank of Canada was forced to intervene in currency markets, selling its US$ reserves and buying C$s in order to minimize the slide, which analysts said was accelerated by thin holiday trading flows. The C$ closed at US69.66, down US0.46 in its largest one-day decline in five months.
"The C$'s bucket has once again sprung a leak," said David Ebata, senior Canadian analyst at Boston-based Technical Data. The C$ had been trading steadily lower in recent weeks after receiving a boost last month from the prospect of a Quebec Liberal party victory with Jean Charest replacing Daniel Johnson at the party's helm. The C$ hit its 1998 high on March 11, when Johnson announced his resignation and Charest became the top candidate. But the currency has fallen back, even after
Charest decided to run for the top job.
"This totally caught the market off guard," one trader said of the C$ fall.
Now the Charest factor has dissipated, attention may have returned to some of the negative factors weighing on the C$ for months, said Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC Wood Gundy Securities Inc.
With the current account deficit growing, Canada must get foreign capital to fund the shortfall and the difference between Canadian and U.S. rates is bad for the C$, he said.
Lower yields on Canadian bonds make C$-denominated securities less attractive than higher yield fixed-income investments in the U.S.
Analysts said some traders may be preparing to test the Bank of Canada's resolve again, after getting the bank on the defensive during a 5% slide in the C$ between September and February.
In that period, the bank raised its benchmark overnight lending rate from 3.5% to 5%. The corresponding U.S. federal funds rate is still half a percentage point higher at 5.5%. - with files from Dow Jones


...in the past, in order to defend the Canadian dollar, Canada has often resorted to significant interest rate hikes.

Naturally, America is often compelled to follow. The problem in having a relatively stable neighbor like Canada is that, when it raises its interest rates significantly, then there are often tremendous American capital outflows chasing the higher return.

America is usually left with no other choice but to raise its own interest rates.

Not a good idea for the vertical American equities markets, Jeil.

Thanks.

F*

This won't be the first time Gold funds outperform the rest:

http://www1.stocksmart.com/

Good night all,
must get some sleep to get up early
to watch the golds tank in tune with gold.

Anyhow. Bill Buckler says the bull is born in Australia. We got
big mothers of bulls. Wide open spaces, healthy diet, love and
nurturing. What more does a bull require. What better place for
the secular gold bull to be born especially when the AUS$ behaves
itself. Here is to the green pastures upon which this bull wik umm
will graze.

AAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH.

Yes that was what my work showed a month ago. I run the calculations in parallel on three different machines. I tinker with them and occassionally totally scrap the calculations on one machine and start over to see if, ignoring the previous combination of cycles, I get the same answer by starting from scratch. The new combination generally comes up close to the old. The new calculation can easily be recognized as similar to the old. In my month ago calculation I did show the last week in March to be the top for Homestake. If the top in the first week of April holds then that projection will not have been that far off. The shape and timing of the downmove has changed somewhat. Now I now show the first week of June as the end of that first move instead of late May. The rally out of the June low now shows much weaker that my last month work and the return from that rally now shows much weaker with an extreme low in late August before the bear dies. Can you understand the bottle of Tums sitting on my desk?
In any event, I still am bearish. I am not posting my comments to get an award for perfection. It really relates more to insomnia and lack of a book that currently interests me. I do think however that my work is more valid than anything I have ever seen anyone else do. I certainly have been impressed by some past successes and I think it will turn out that if you had gone short at the end of March you will wind up making a good deal of money by early June.

...you are definitely the paradigm of the defeated goldbug. I hope you have reasons to smile soon.

Cheer up...

Thanks.

F*

Not first time, I mean last time.

Hedgehog
Agree. No nukes.

Brian Eno.

Are ya saying Gold, HM, DROOY, etc. are going into the TERLET?

I always have doubts. If my work showed them all going up dramatically I would have just as big doubts as I do about them going down. I learned a long time ago that it is impossible to rely upon anyone else to tell me what to do with my money. If someone really knew how to make a fortune by trading he would do it and he would not be selling that information to anyone else, therefore all commercial sellers of advice are making a prima face case that they are incompetent. So that leaves each of us to make his own way.
I have experimented with different ideas. If you are satisfied with the wealth level where you are then fundamental analysis might keep you where you are, if you buy the "efficient market" hypothesis. Mr. Buffet seems to have been the exception to that rule, but that is rare.
I became interested in the idea of cycles many years ago, but it has only been since PC's were widely available at sufficient speeds to do the required calculations that I have started to believe that it is possible to project the future. Just like the first telescopes, you get a blury view, but I have concluded that it is a workable hypothesis. that is my own way and since I have never been through this point in time before except thru calculations I cannot positively say that the calcualtions will prove to be correct enough to keep me from wandering off the road.
I have made money in the recent past and I feel as confident as my personality allows me to that the "terlet" is where the PM shares are headed.

As you all probably saw Kitco recently quoted Palladium at $300. At this historic moment I tip my hat.

I have no doubt that the information your site is correct and has validity. I don't know how to use that type of information, however. There is so much to look at and after a while it all becomes a jumble to me. I just do my little thing with my computers and math I have to stretch to understand and apply, and the little charts come out at the end only they don't stop today. Rather they go into the future as long as I set them up to go, and then I put my money on the line or stand aside as the case may be. I'm going to go to bed now and in another month or so, I'll get back to Kitco and we'll compare notes on what has happened between now and then. If I am wrong, I'll fess up to an advanced case of insanity.

To any knowledgable trader:

Are there any restrictions as to which market gold traders may
buy and sell on - ie. can American or Canadian buyers "play" the
Australian market, or are they restricted ( by legislation, not
convenience of time zone ) to trading on their own domestic markets?
If not, I'd be buying in Australia most of the time!!!

Thankyou in advance for your response.

Jeil--I hope your new grandchild is better looking than your gold charts.

All--That hot silver stock I was alluding to with Ted last night went up 15% today. Not finished buying myself yet, but I believe I may have mentioned it in a previous post. Little Aussie silver wannabees doing very well the last month or two.

KITCO CONVENTION:
When silver hits $8++, gold 360++, XAU 200++, XGO 2000++, JGAI the moon++ etc., how about we all meet at the Royal Hawaiian Hotel in Waikiki ( the big pink one ) . Auracious will buy the drinks, Donald will give a talk on info collection, Sharefin will bring the prawns, Ted will bring the...err...ahhh...no, that's illegal...and so on. Oh, and Haggis will bring the haggis!!! I will bring Andy Smith's head on a big platter ( with an apple in his mouth---a GOLDEN APPLE ) . Anyway--you'all get the idea. More suggestions solicited!!! Let's get this thing on the road!!! Go gold/silver/Kitco convention!!!!!Probably early '99 before all the factors will be in place. Sooner if the public figure out what Y2K means!!!!!

I believe Homestake is over priced, and probably has been since they announced the merger/takeover with Plutonic Resources in Australia.

Since the announcement Plutonic shares have risen from Aus$1.95 to Aus$5.90 ( 200% ) , Homestake has probably done some thing similar ( but I dont know as I only follow the Aussie market ) .

Plutonic is very over priced, they have 2.5 million oz in reserves ( US$295/oz ) , contained within a resource of 10.0 million oz ( US$70/oz ) . This makes them the most expensive stock on the Aussie gold market on a cost/ounce basis.

Because of this I dont think Homestake is a very indicator of the gold industry.

Let's get this thing organized. Brilliant idea!!! We're going to need some profit, first. Tonight its good to see silver coming back with the help of Palladium shining at $300. Problem is this continues to be the pattern. Firming up in European trading then down with the NY opening.

I like your confidence; maybe its time to make reservations - perhaps we should get a read from the cycle guys to get the timing right - unfortunately I can't find one that bullish.

Go Silver - see you at the Royal Hawaiian when silver gets to the moon or whatever price is necessary to get SSC off 1 3/8. wa

Your charts maybe correct but YOU'RE standind on the wrong side of the table !!! Now just walk around to the opposite side and SMILE ! Goodnight from the chilly Midwest.

go against the flow and present the information in such a manner that the conversation does not turn ugly and insulting. Don't agree with what you are saying, but certainly respect the tone and presentation.

It must be 12:00 somewhere, gulp, cheers to ya.

On second thought reservations won't probably be required when we are ready to have our Kitco 1st Annual Silver Hit the Moon Convention. Reason: there won't be anybody but us at the hotel. All the stock bulls will be nursing losses, the Japanese will be awaiting their governments 545th economic package and the US won't let the Chinese in since by then they will probably rule.

I thank you for the kind comments and thoughts. When you have the chance send me an email at tolerant@hotmail.com ---

June Gold down 1.90 @ 311---crucial Dollar-Yen= 129.70 +.14

G'Day mate!!....only 15 ( geeeeeze ) ...no extra $$$ ta speculate on anythin these days....Just wood & nails buddy!...Will still send ya a missive though~~~~~~~

illegal where?

In order to facilitate the needs for a gold celebration I have decided to steal Long Island. Press releases will soon be going out containing information of an impending invasion by New Foundland. Once the masses have evacuated I will fly Ted down to affix a sturdy motor mount on the west end of the island to which a powerful Briggs and Stratton 10hp motor with plenty of low end grunt will be attached.

We will then disconnect the bridges and fill in the tunnel severing our ties to the mainland. After a brief celebration ( okay, a month or two or until we run out of Cuervo and matches ) Ted and I will fire up the mighty little BS motor and embark on our mission of separating kitcoites from their various ports of call.

Mike Sheller will navigate via the stars. All kitkcoites currently on the island must remain in their homes until they receive notice of the secret rendezvous point.

Encoded messages will be placed in the want ads section of various papers around the world with further details.

http://www.feer.com

Tuesday April 14, 2:16 am Eastern Time
Japan 97/98 bankruptcy debts hit record Y14.5 trln

TOKYO, April 14 ( Reuters ) - Debts of Japanese firms that went bankrupt in the year to March 31 jumped 56.8 percent from the previous year to 14.52 trillion yen, a record for a third straight year, a credit research firm said on Tuesday. Tokyo Shoko Research said in its monthly report that the number of corporate bankruptcies in the 1997/98 fiscal year grew 16.4 percent to 17,496, reflecting Japans deepening economic gloom.

The annual bankruptcy debt surpassed 10 trillion yen for the first time ever, pushing up average bankruptcy debt per company in the year to a record 830 million yen, it said.

In March alone, bankruptcy debt grew 13.8 percent to total 1.62 trillion yen, the highest level ever for that month, while the number of bankruptcies surged 31.9 percent to 1,811.

The March figure for bankruptcies was the second highest for that month since 1984, when 1,925 bankruptcies were recorded, it said. Tokyo Shoko said in the report that the governments injection of some two trillion yen of public funds into the troubled banking sector last month appeared to have helped prevent any huge bankruptcies by firms such as general contractors. But it added: The massive number of medium-sized corporate bankruptcies with debts of over one billion yen illustrated not only the effects of the bursting of the ( late-1980s ) economic bubble but also the current seriousness of real economic conditions.

Albright Asks Va. to Stop Execution
By Richard Carelli
Associated Press Writer
Monday, April 13, 1998; 6:48 p.m. EDT

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Secretary of State Madeleine Albright will ask Virginia's governor to delay the execution of a death-row inmate from Paraguay, administration officials said Monday.

A State Department spokesman said Albright would urge Virginia Gov. James Gilmore to use his power to stop Tuesday's execution of Angel Francisco Breard.

But the Justice Department urged the high court to allow the execution to proceed. Breard is scheduled to die Tuesday, despite pleas for a postponement by the government of Paraguay and the World Court.

The high-level split by two agencies of the federal government is outlined in the Justice Department's brief to the high court and was confirmed by State Department officials.

``Secretary Albright has written to Governor Gilmore asking him to exercise his discretionary powers to stay the execution temporarily,'' said State Department spokesman James P. Rubin.

Albright referred in the letter to ``the concerns she has as secretary of state about the potential risk to Americans abroad about the Vienna convention not being fully implemented,'' Rubin said. The convention guarantees that persons accused in other countries have access to diplomats from their country of citizenship.

Breard, a citizen of Paraguay, was convicted of the 1992 stabbing death of Ruth Dickie in her Arlington, Va., apartment.

The U.N.'s big push for power

On April 2, Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright ridiculed critics of the United Nations who say the world body is a threat to U.S. sovereignty.

"There are some who believe the U.N. is a sinister organization" with "a fleet of black helicopters which may, at any moment, swoop down into our back yards and steal our lawn furniture," she told a meeting of the American Society of Newspaper Publishers.

Ha, ha, ha. Pretty funny, huh? The assembled members of the media elite certainly thought so. They yucked it up at all the punchlines and gave Albright a standing O.

But let's examine the chain of events since that speech:


A day later, the U.N. Commission on Human Rights urged abolition of the death penalty globally, while one of its top investigators specifically singled out for criticism the United States' policies on executions. Waly Bacre Ndiaye of Senegal, who traveled the United States studying the use of the death penalty, said U.S. policy "seems to continue to be marked by arbitrariness."

A week later, the U.N.'s World Court intervened for the first time in a death penalty case, ordering the United States to spare the life of a Paraguayan facing execution in Virginia this week. The court doesn't contend, by the way, that the murderer, Angel Francisco Breard, is innocent of the crime. Rather, it found that his rights were violated because he wasn't informed of his right to assistance from the Paraguayan consul. In other words, he wasn't read his international Miranda rights.

If I wasn't seeing black helicopters before Albright's speech, I sure would be seeing them now. I hope this attempted intrusion into U.S. domestic affairs by the U.N. serves as a wakeup call to all Americans.

It's not just the U.N. we should be worried about. U.S. politicians like Albright and her boss are the bigger threat. They are literally rolling out the red carpet for this kind of attack on American constitutional self-government.

On March 30, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected the appeal of a U.S. soldier facing a bad-conduct discharge for refusing to wear a U.N. shoulder patch and blue beret in a Macedonian "peacekeeping" mission. Army Spc. Michael New had argued, sensibly, that he is entitled to an honorable discharge because the order he disobeyed would have violated his oath of enlistment and turn him into a U.N. soldier.

"I have never taken an oath to the United Nations, but I have taken the required oath to support and defend the Constitution," New explained.

The Supremes didn't buy it. But maybe now, with the World Court pushing its weight around, they're not really the Supremes anymore.

There are other ominous signs on the horizon, and you don't have to be part of what Albright derisively calls "the black helicopter crowd" to see them.


If the U.N. has its way, the United States will soon be offering more than U.S. soldiers up as sacrificial offerings. Last July the U.N. Security Council voted to encourage members "to make appropriately trained police available to the organization at short notice, if possible through standby arrangements." It also agreed "to promote a standardized approach to the training and recruitment of civilian police."

Earlier this year, the United Nations held a "firearms workshop" in New Delhi, India, for the purpose of developing a "U.N. Universal Declaration of Principles." Needless to say, there were few advocates of inalienable gun rights at the meeting. "The right to possess firearms was discussed and the general consensus was that there was no right to possess firearms," explained delegate M.K. Shula. "I strongly believe that the possession of firearms for hunting should be totally prohibited." The kind of "universal declarations" under discussion at this meeting, once approved, are normally followed by a convention or "treaty." A treaty, by the way, becomes domestic law in America by a simple vote of the Senate.

Let's see: No death penalty ... U.N. busybodies traveling around the country studying our archaic ways ... U.S. soldiers under foreign command ... civilian cops trained for U.N. duty ... an end to the right to bear arms ... and we get to pick up most of the tab. What a bargain our U.N. membership is, huh? Anyone who doesn't like what they see gets ridiculed by our own secretary of state ... and laughed at by the know-nothing, pro-establishment press.
-------------------------------------
Joseph Farah is editor of the Internet newspaper WorldNetDaily.com and executive director of the Western Journalism Center, an independent group of investigative reporters.

Sounds like an unbeatable plan to MOI especially when ya start talkin Briggs & Stratton...Will contact me Newfie friends ( if they ever sober up,eh ) and get the ball rollin....

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980413/japan_doll_1.html

33 degrees with rain-snow-sleet-hail & fog but otherwise a spectacular day on the North Atlantic

eh

Hi Ted. We are 41F, nice sunrise right now but showers forecast for later.

http://www.tor.ec.gc.ca/forecasts/forecast.cgi?city=Sydney?ovince=Nova+Scotia

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980414/moody_s_pu_1.html

Sunrise looks great here by the harbor. Just in from maneuvers in the yard, running from tree to tree evading the coming onslaught from New Foundland.

If you listen carefully by the waters edge you can hear the oars of the NF navy dipping into the water.

They will never get underway from Canada because of the Labrador retrievers.

Excellent, the power of the internet. Recon from around the world will insure our victory.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980414/quake_chin_1.html

Is that quote for palladium correct???? If so, :- ) :- ) :- )

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980414/japan_firm_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980413/uzbekistan_1.html

More....need help!
Anyone can show me a site where i can study Future and options course.Your helps are
greatly appreaciated.

regards,
JIN

SOON!

noone fuks with the Newfies....or they pay the price~~~~RUM ain't cheap up this way,eh!

Hey, Ted, how goes it? We must be able to get gold heading north again. it seems to have lost its direction like a poor sheep without a shepherd. Baa! Baa!

Where is our joke?

TED AND FAMILY,

Thanks for the concern...for you,

Imagine

John Lennon

Imagine there's no heaven
It's easy if you try
No hell below us
Above us only sky
Imagine all the people
Living for today...

Imagine there's no countries
It isn't hard to do
Nothing to kill or die for
And no religion too
Imagine all the people
Living life in peace...

You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I hope someday you'll join us
And the world will be as one

Imagine no possessions
I wonder if you can
No need for greed or hunger
A brotherhood of man
Imagine all the people
Sharing all the world...

You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I hope someday you'll join us
And the world will live as one


Best regards,
JIN
( 14/04/98 )

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/front.htm

Sometimes the gold market reminds me of the following story. Withot further adieu I post this powerful and hardhitting tale of woe.

A plane full of retirees headed for Florida was gripped with
fear when the pilot announced, "Two of our engines are on fire; we are
flying through a heavy fog, and it has eliminated all our visibility."
The passengers were numb with fear, except for one...a retired
minister. "Now, now, keep calm," he said. "Let's all bow our heads
and pray."
Immediately, the group bowed their heads to pray...except one
man. "Why aren't you bowing your head to pray?" the minister asked.
"I don't know how to pray," replied the passenger.
"Well, just do something religious!" instructed the minister.
The man got up and passed his hat down the aisle, taking an
offering.

Just about to cross over !

$308 going up fast vs $309.50 just resting.

John_C back in Sunny Brisbane

John Lennon was my favorite.....younger brother!

bout time my friend!!----good one ta boot!

You're right, T-1, the U.N. sucks. --AG

All: The good news is that gold mutual funds were #1 for a one month comparison with about 200 mutual funds that I follow with TC2000. My mother-in-law noticed and asked if we were in gold stocks. How did she get that idea? How about that, aurator?

Incidentally, one Kitcoite was wrong yesterday. It was Russia that is not coming to the G7 meeting, not Japan. Also, apparently Hashimoto is talking about a tax break this AM -- I think it was $60 billion US over two yearsJapan is now talking about raising interest rates. I'm no currency expert, but it seems that raising interest rates for the Yen are bullish for the Japanase markets as that will reduce the loss of the Yen to foreign investors who wish to borrow Yen at low interest rates, and buy other currencies at higher rates. Right now, the Japanese need to encourage return of the Yen to Japan due to their liquidity crisis. So, paradoxically, they must raise rates.

I wish I were confident that the Japanese could dislodge all of those Yakuza types from the bad debt, and turn around the Japanese economy.

I think we should be cautious in assuming that our bottomed gold bear will make a 180 degree turn, and immediately turn into a gold bull.

That is not how the gold market usually works. However, more and more positive short term rallies are likely.

I think anyone who thinks gold will go below $280/oz again is excessively pessimistic, however.

Belated greetings

Robert and Dorothy King of
Burnaby, B.C., hold the
Christmas card they recently
received - 21 years late. Canada
Post isn't sure what happened.

Photo by CANADIAN PRESS

1. The United States of America's most beloved President was shot in the head, President Abraham Lincoln.
2. The unsinkable Titantic sunk.
3. It is also a day giving occasion to great lying and cheating since Tax Returns are due tomorrow.
4. And 49 years ago, an afterbirth was miraculously brought to life in a rural hospital in southern Oklahoma....the doctor utilizing the only tools of life he had on-hand....117 volts A.C. and jalapeno peppers. This ghastly and rudimental form of life came to be know as MOI!

This is a day that lives in blasphemy. So, GO WITH CAUTION TODAY GOLDBUGS!!! ( and my best wishes )

Both expecTED to be up 0.1% and the reality ( ? ) = CPI=UNCH & core rate up .1%----Retail sales down .1%......yawn...burp...

What are tax returns,huh?

A dollar will get you a gallon of gas, but only a quart of bottled water. What gives?

Did you say you are moving to Maine???? Inquire of those Mainers..."Say, Partner can you tell me what a tax return is and who is the IRS?" I am sure, a speedy and sufficient answer will be directed your way....g'day!

Looks like alotta 'good-suff' happened on yer B-Day,eh!!

Look here ( http://www.golden-eagle.com/university.html ) for futures and options self-help info. It was good some months back, but I don't know if the site has been altered. Sorry I can't paste live links as I'm using lynx.

For God's sake man, don't remind me.... ( I'm a' oiley ) ....P.S...regarding what gives? ans. ( my ass )

"In the history of capitalism's long expansionary cycles, it is finance capital that usually rules in the final stage, displacing the inventors and industrialists who launched the era, eclipsing the power of governments to manage the course of economic events." ---William Greider, from, One World Ready or Not; The Manic Logic of Global Capitalism, published by Simon and Schuster, 1997

http://cnnfn.com/markets/wires/9804/14/palladium_wg/

nothin ( file not found ) ---is there a hidden message here ( hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm )

Palladium posts 18-year high
Palladium rose to an 18-year high as lease rates rose due to supply difficulties. The precious metal fixed in London at $302.00 an ounce - having risen by $15.5 over the Easter weekend. Palladium, which is used in automotive catalysts and in electronics components, had already hit fresh 18-year highs in early European trade.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I think the Kaplan report everyone is commenting on is out-of-date.

Yesterday, LGB posted some Kaplan comments that seem to update the Kaplan report everyone was commenting on last night. The full Kaplan report said commercials were net short 30,000+ contracts..

However, the Kaplan comments posted by LGB yesterday indicated that the commercials were now net LONG with heavy buying this week ( AFTER APRIL 7 ) . I then posted ( 14:24, yesterday ) if anyone could verify the new COT figures.

Someone then posted the following link that verifies that the COT commercials are now net LONG as of APRIL 13:

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980413/ny preciou 1.html

Again, as I said yesterday, if this is accurate, this is bullish to make up that many shorts in one week and now be net long. The shorts were saying last weeks high volume was due to rollover from April to June contracts. If the new COT figures are correct, I think the rollover theory is wrong.

Again, can someone verify the COT figures because it seems like maybe people are commenting here on two different time frames. Thanks!

That is not a live link. It's an address that will have to be typed or pasted into your browser. I don't use a graphic browser here at Kitco. I use a UNIX command line browser called "lynx".

Happy birthday old timer. Did you go to Woodstock?

Sorry if the link I posted was incomplete. There is a blank after the "ny" and the "preciou". The embedded blanks must have caused my error. For the web techies out there, do I need to put the whole thing in quotes?
Thanks!

To: John Disney Re: Fri Apr 10 1998 01:27
Sorry for nor answering earlier, but Ive been off-screen since Thu for easter-purposes...

You asked: "... what is sales tax on coin situation in Europe ??"
In fact, it is inhomogenous throughout european countries. As for the EU-members: There is an EU-directive that makes value-added tax in case of gold and gold-coins mandatory. BUT: At least in Germany, Luxembourg and Austria, there is no VAT collected neither for bullion nor in case of coins. You just pay the spot-price plus a small premium ( mint ) . No sales-tax, no VAT, no vatever tax.

As I posted somewhen earlier this year, there has been an official urge by the european commission to those 3 countries to collect VAT on gold-coins. In case of Austria, who joined EU in 1995 even to those sold since 1995 ( !! ) . This was rejected even by the austrian minister of finance. ( Funny thing, as coins are sold totally anonymous in every bank ) . MoFs main argument: At least Phillies have a face-value in ATS and are by that legal tender - which is VAT-free by EU-law ( Hehe ) .

STUDIO.R: Happy Afterbirthday!;- ) )

Isn't it that same old problem of "en"
Kitco puts the en in,
take out the en on golden eagle - manually;
open with your browser.

HighRise

Up. A classic case of Western Industry getting fat by manipulating the Global Natural Resources.

Gold is considerably down since yesterday, I hope that the japanese buy it instead of trying to outsmart Wall Street through paper games

Here's the data that was published yesterday on www.futuresource.com

SILVER:

4/13/98 --FWN--As of Mar 31,1998

( CONTRACTS OF 5,000 TROY OUNCES )

-- --- --- LONG CHG SHORT CHG %OI

Non Commercial 44,566 +2,040 3,827 -502 19.0

spreading 19,253 -456 19,253 -456 15.1

Commercial 29,398 +232 83,904 +2,286 44.5

Tot lrg trader 93,217 +1,816 106,985 +1,327 78.6

Small traders 34,201 -122 20,433 +366 21.4

Total OI 127,417 +1,694

( c ) Copyright 1998 FWN

GOLD:

4/13/98 --FWN--As of Mar 31,1998

( CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES )

-- --- --- LONG CHG SHORT CHG %OI

Non Commercial 15,879 +7,143 31,114 -13,200 9.7

spreading 47,496 +747 47,496 +747 19.6

Commercial 129,728 -16,426 133,240 +10,329 54.2

Tot lrg trader 193,103 -8,536 211,850 -2,124 83.3

Small traders 49,759 -813 31,011 -7,225 16.7

Total OI 242,862 -9,349

( c ) Copyright 1998 FWN

Isure....honest to gosh, we set out for Woodstock on motorcycles....but we lost our way ( we were taking medicines without prescriptions ) ....but I was there in spirits ( wound up in New Orleans ) ...huh? easy riders..duh.

Roebear...I am testament ( living? ) ....to the adage..."never throw anything away"..er, on second thought ( my last for the day ) ...?

Thanks and now to the office ( I hope D. made me a german chocolate cake,,yes? )

Another Cabinet member leaves.

Time to Jump Ship?

HighRise
June Gold 311.20

A healthy little producer in good shape. Geomaque is supposed to be coming out with a preliminary resource estimate for their Vueltas del Rio Honduras property this week.

This was the one where they has some spectacular intersections of 38 oz per ton over 3 meters and 1 meter right at the surface. in fact the whole lens system is right at the surface so is heap leach deposit.

Together with their no debt, assured continued profitability, and a pre-bought $9.3 million financing just recently, this company although only a small producer, is in excellent shape.

And here is the April 7 data from www. futuresource.com, published yesterday ( also )

SILVER

4/13/98 --FWN--As of Apr 07,1998

( CONTRACTS OF 5,000 TROY OUNCES )

-- --- --- LONG CHG SHORT CHG %OI

Non Commercial 45,910 +1,344 2,938 -889 19.0

spreading 19,005 -249 19,005 -249 14.7

Commercial 29,936 +539 88,139 +4,234 45.8

Tot lrg trader 94,851 +1,634 110,082 +3,097 79.5

Small traders 34,008 -193 18,777 -1,656 20.5

Total OI 128,859 +1,442

( c ) Copyright 1998 FWN

GOLD

4/13/98 --FWN--As of Apr 07,1998

( CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES )

-- --- --- LONG CHG SHORT CHG %OI

Non Commercial 38,357 +22,477 24,265 -6,849 11.3

spreading 54,386 +6,890 54,386 +6,890 19.6

Commercial 123,873 -5,854 170,665 +37,425 53.0

Tot lrg trader 216,616 +23,513 249,316 +37,465 83.9

Small traders 61,166 +11,407 28,466 -2,545 16.1

Total OI 277,782 +34,920

( c ) Copyright 1998 FWN

For Brother Oris .. what is your end of April forecast for
Gold using best packo pickles and finest vodka??
Mine is radical and bearish and perhaps wrong.
I see two possibilities 1. is bad 2. is worse.
In One gold falls to 39000 yen and to 455 swiss
In Two it falls further to 37500 yen and 435 swiss.

Thus if $ stays where it is we get 39000/130 = 300
or if $ strenghthens we get 39000/135 = 288

In Worse case we get 37500/130 = 288
or with strong $ 37500/135 = 277

Swiss gives same kind of numbers

Happy Birthday from another GoldBug born on April 14. Live long and prosper!

You are correct, Sir! Take out the "en" in golden. Vronsky strikes again! That has also appeared as a live link. Double correction, good catch.

Lincoln, the father of the Income Tax; Lincoln, destroyer of cities; Lincoln, who replaced the Union with the Law of Nations; Lincoln, who destroyed honest money and gave us the greenback; Lincoln, beloved by the fools he enslaved.

When you love your disease, you will never be well.

Re GEO:TSE
During one day last week it traded over 3 million shares but
there wasn't any price movement. Most disappointing. Quite often
I see block trades of 100K-150K. I own it and will hang on since
the reward/risk ratio is so good.

While we are watching Palladium kick gold's behind, let us reflect on Saint LGB's penchant for mentioning certain, ah ... metals stocks, namely Stillwater Mining ( SWC ) and North American Palladium ( PDLCF - the Sunshine Mining of palladium ) .

Presuming the West's demand for industrial palladium continues, SWC and PDLCF as the only North American pure-plays should do well? This really HAS NOT been the case lately.

What happens to the demand for palladium if and when the bottom drops out of consumer demand for the fiftieth PC, the ninetieth VCR, the thousandth TV etc?????????

Anyone here have some better insight into this situation?

thanks,
Spud-o

Kaplan has it completely wrong. The specs have been the smart money in gold these past
few years, not the commercials. The commercials were net long and the specs net short
all the way down.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


One Msgr. Ginsberg who participated here that most recall,
and I gathered handled professional money in the commodities
arena was very keen on the COT report and inferences therefrom.
From his infrequent and circumspect posts he was stalking a
'very big move' made inevitable from the inordinately large
mismatch of long commercials to short specs, intimating that
the commercials are never wrong and specs always get burned.
Dinna hap'n cap'n. I don't doubt that odds were, from
backtesting, in that favor...but, odds being odds...

Lincoln - suspender of habeas corpus. Recently you asked whether or not BIS does development lending. I haven't been able to find any evidence that it does, but I should dig deeper to be sure. Are you refering to the type of lending that would be used for infrastructure?

Thanks very much for the COT numbers. This then confirms the large Commercial Net SHORT position as of APRIL 7.

However, I guess my confusion comes from the Yahoo link that was posted to me yesterday, which indicated that these Commercial figures have now changed significantly since April 7, and are now to the net LONG side. If someone gets access to the the next set of numbers that would be as of probably April 14?, then please post. This would verify if a huge change has occurred. Thanks again in advance.

Andaroundthebackstretchpalladinpullsoutinfrontandits...

Any PM historians-- when was the last time palladium
outshone gold and then what happened.

Greetings to all bulls, bears and pigs. ( There is a lot of greed out there in CNBC-land )

My Toronto Mining Issue McClellan Summation index continues to rise. The critical point for this major indicator will come in a few weeks. Once it is over +1000, it must get to +2000 to confirm a major bull market. We are currently just over +700 on this reading. If it fails between +1000 and +2000, look out below.

The new lows on Toronto mining issues have dried right up. This is a good sign.

I run a small partnership in Canada which specializes in turnaround situations, precious metals shares and undervalued Dow stocks. There are no undervalued Dow stock, the golds are doing well and I am selling the shares of the turnaround shares, not buying them. When I can't find anything good to buy, I just wait around for a few months. We are up over 30% this year so there is no pressure to buy anyway.

Mike Stewart ( Technical Update ) : What is URL of your PARTNERSHIP?

Unless, I'm mistaken ( entirely possible ) the COT numbers are only released every two weeks.

In cleaning out my desk the other day I ran across some Gold Market Trivia - which you might find interesting.

Based upon gold bull markets from 1970 through January 1996, there have been 15 short-term rallies in gold bullion - averaging about +29.5% gain. The average rally lasted only about 2.5 months. However, there were three distinct clusters:

1. An average gain of 17.9% within 2.4 months.

2. An average gain of 40.1% within 2.6 months.

3. An average gain of 32.8% within 2.7 months.


Assuming gold has indeed put in a bottom - and if history repeats exactly - which it usually never does - we are then looking for the following gold prices per the above clusters. For our initial point, we will use The Privateer's breakout price of US$295
In the first week of April. See chart at:
http://www.the-privateer.com/g-bottom/g-bottom.html#1997

Gold Targets based on historical rallies:

Per cluster #1 -- $348 by approximately June 20, 1998

Per cluster #2 -- $413 by approximately June 26, 1998

Per cluster #3 -- $392 by approximately July 1, 1998

HEY Who Knows..? In any case it would make for a nice summer ( :- )


P.S. - Historically, the XAU rises 3 to 5 TIMES more than gold in a legitimate precious metals bull market and the South African golds do EVEN BETTER!!!!

Due to confusion, yesterday I posted Kaplan's weekending comments from last Thursday. Here are the "Blowoff top" comments from yesterday. Hmmmm, I see Gold has crashed today, "Black Tuesday"... maybe after the "Blow-off top" it has now crashed to form a new bottom, after an extended bear market of several hours, from which it can rally to a new bull! Enough of this, here's Kaplan....

by Steven Jon Kaplan
Back Issue List
Updated @ 7:35 p.m. EDT, Monday, April 13, 1998.





BLOWOFF WARNING-The latest traders' commitments have been released for gold, and they indicate that
for the first time since October, commercials are net short, while speculators are net long. This important
fundamental deterioration is occurring precisely as the technical picture for gold, as measured by price and
volume indicators, as well as its behavior in relation to several key moving averages, has been improving
markedly. In addition, a daily price chart for spot gold seems to indicate a pennant formation of a bull
flag, which is consistent with a final upward move that will induce most of the remaining short speculator
positions to surrender and set the stage for a potentially rapid move to the low $320s or higher--maybe
much higher--as speculators go heavily net long while commercials lock in these higher prices through
forward hedging of futures contracts. The lack of significant resistance levels above the current spot price
accentuates the probability of a substantial final surge in the gold price. After this upward move has
occurred, the inevitably very bearish traders' commitments will set the stage for any bad news to trigger a
chain reaction of stop-loss orders, causing a sharp short-term correction in the gold price to below $300
per ounce for a brief period as the new, uncommitted longs liquidate in a panic and commercials
re-accumulate for possibly the final below-$300 spot price for many years to come. This would follow the
pattern of a "cup and a handle" bottom typical of the earliest stage of a long-term rally from a longer-term
base, such as has been traced by the XAU since the mid-1980s. Investors in gold mining shares should
prepare themselves for the development of a short-term sell signal should such a blowoff top occur. Each
time that gold rallies through minor resistance, while open interest increases, such a scenario moves closer
to fulfillment. Should open interest instead drop steadily while the gold price stabilizes, the likelihood of
such a blowoff proportionately decreases, though this latter sequence of events is probably a less plausible
one in light of the technical patterns currently being generated. Look for insider selling of gold mining
shares as a final confirmation before actually taking any profits, since the potential remaining upward move
in these shares could be quite high in percentage terms.

SWC is up over 27 this morning. The Russians will eventually bring Palladium to market at the highest possible price and cool the current fever. Car emissions control devices account for the highest percentage use of Pa and there exists now a growing overproduction of vehicles. Japanese sales are crashing at double digit rates. Demand for Palladium for industrial use should slow soon if it hasn't already. Speculators are involved heavily now. Having said all of that, SWC is working off their stupid hedges and mining more Platinum and Palladium. By year end they will be a blue chip company in my opinion.

Are the LBMA sales volumes reported in any of the financial papers?

My partnership is called the Sabre Equity Partnership. We don't have a web site. I work alone out of my house. I don't promote of sell any services, just trade for the partnership and myself. It began in 1989 as something for my friends and family. Since then it has spread out a bit, but we are still a small operation. ( by choice ) . My email is stew001@ibm.net. This is not an ad. It is a small, one time plug.

Lending in competition with World Bank Group was the thought I had.

Lincoln, the Father of Modern Demoncracy, the Author of Big Lies, the Prevaricating Lawyer.

Those who believe the mainstream media never gives warnings on the irsks in Equities, havn't read this weeks "Newsweek". The article by Allan Sloan, shows a nice big happy face balloon on one page, and shows it popped in shreds on the next. It goes on to describe, in very basic laymen's terms, and with a very cursory analysis, why the risks are quite high at today's lofty levels, and how folks should be paying a bit more attention to said risks, and lowering their expectations for future gains.

For the cynical among you, there were several contradictory statements in the article as well. Such as Sloan's admission that in spite of his worry re the risks, he just borrowed against his Whole Life Ins. 6% yield policy to buy more stocks!

I believe you are right about the 'every two week release'. So the next publish date will be April 21 ( ?? ) . I promise now, that I'll stop beating a dead horse, but I guess the bottom line is whether the Yahoo link is accurate or not, and whether Kaplan's article, like the COT report, is quoting numbers AS OF APRIL 7, and not taking into consideration what has happened since then. Thanks

REALISTIC was the one as I recall who proposed a "Call of the Week" award. ( Where ARE you Realistic? Your comments were some of the best here )

Anyway, this weeks award, this YEARS award, must so far, be awarded to RJ, who predicted this turn of events....Palladium pushing past Gold for the first time ever. It was also RJ, who pushed hard for the merits of Platinum short term over Gold...., which we can all clearly see, has far outperformed Gold this past few weeks.

RJ, the ANOTHER cult has dwindled off to a trickle of posts ...come back!!!! The forum needs your valuable commentary....

Results, history, accurate calls, trading savvy, market experience, and OBJECTIVITY....these are the characteristics we ought most respect in any comments re market direction folks. Reality over metaphysics and cults.

Re your 08:28..was that # 4 a true story?

I know some evil countries try to discourage the use and holding of gold coins by charging VAT on them.

But really raw materials should not be subject to VAT. If spot is $300 and a one ounce coin sells for $320 then VAT should roughly be applied to the difference ( the cost of transforming the raw material into coin ) . Thus Tax on the Value Added should be something like 15% on $20 which is 3 bucks. But it is a wolf in sheep's clothing. It really isn't a value added tax. It's a sales tax isn't it?

Also having a currency amount stated on it is intriguing. I suppose if you were dumb enough you could take a maple leaf with a stated value of $50 and fill up your car with petrol.

However, do you feel that immoral govts may demand redemptions of these coins for stated value?

US Global investor's advisory for week ending Apr 9 stated that the backing for the new Euro currency would be 70% backed by US$, the remaining 30% to be comprised of gold and Japan Yen. This infor supposedly came from LBMA.

The positive side of this information is the LBMA forcast no new sales of gold by CB's in the forseeable future. ( as a result of this info )

US Global has a free telephone info line. The number is l 800 US FUNDS. Listen to menu . Gold Advisory on main menu is # 4.

I am considering an investment in a Gold Mutual Fund. Can anyone suggest several.

I really believe there is more upside to SA Gold at this point and would like the name of a fund that specializes in SA.

Thanks in advance.

Althought not as detailed as the numbers provided by Silverbaron, Yahoo generally updates the numbers in their daily gold commentary report. If you want to keep your eye on it here is the URL: http://biz.yahoo.com/reports/commodities.html

**A Conspiracy to hide those years**
" I can't come up with any true explanation, but it is a fact that in the U.S. and other countries this same attitude prevails. It is almost as if to say, if we don't talk about the Great Depression, then there will never be another one.

Of course, its true, too, that people were ashamed, collectively, that there was such a thing as a Depression, that the whole system just broke down and nothing could be done to make it work.

But why have ten years of our contemporary history, ten years of the greatest trauma this continent has faced, and that includes all the wars, been virtually blotted out ?"

" Think about it. The Canadian nation. There was solid stuff there in the beginning, integrity, willingness to work and work very hard, faith, a defined goal and a good base of English, Scotch, Irish, French, German, Scandinavian, Polish, Russian, Ukrainian, Italian, all these providing a diverse but strong base to build upon."

" But in the schools and universities today, what is known? A few paragraphs. At most, one or two pages. But more often nothing !"

" A criminal record, as one who survived what we call "The Great Canadian Depression" that is a badge of honour."

" Judges seemed just as cooperative to those whom they deemed "The Powers" then as they do now. The judiciary and the "bankers' association" walked hand and hand, stopping occasionally to smile into each other's faces like lovers walking through a green park"

" Why? Because of what we call the Protestant Ethic, of course, which in essence says ''work your ass off all your life and do what the boss tells you and the big guy in the sky, when your time comes, he'll see you get your reward. The streets of Heaven are paved with gold, and hell is a fiery inferno.'' We believe all this, you know. Even today, You believe it. That gentleman and his wife over there, they believe it. We all know"

FWIW Take Care

uesday April 14, 6:32 am Eastern Time

Palladium at new 18-year high on tight supplies

LONDON, April 14 ( Reuters ) - Palladium fixed at a fresh 18-year high on Tuesday as
lease rates rose again amid supply tightness caused by the absence of 1998 exports from
the world's major supplier Russia, dealers said.

The precious metal fixed in London at $302.00 an ounce versus the previous fix last
Thursday of $286.50, having risen over the extended European holiday weekend.

Spot palladium had already hit fresh 18-year highs in early European trade and last traded
at $299.00/$302.00 an ounce versus Monday's New York close of $295.00/297.00.

The one-month lease rate was quoted at 65-70 percent overnight by U.S. dealers, against
nearly 60 percent last Thursday, with tightness reflecting uncertainty about Russian
supplies and the absence of traders willing to lend metal.

``We have exactly the same scenario as last year,'' a Swiss-based trader said. In 1997,
platinum group metal shipments from Russia were delayed until the second-half of the
year because of bureaucratic wrangling.

Palladium is used to make auto catalysts, which clean up car exhaust gases, in dentistry and
in electronics components.

Consumers of the metal faced little prospect of immediate relief given the uncertainties in
Russia, where President Boris Yeltsin began talks on Tuesday to try to avert a showdown
with the Russian lower parliament over its rejection of his candidate for prime minister.

Yeltsin was meeting Gennady Seleznyov, the lower house speaker, in an effort to win
backing for the 35-year-old Sergei Kiriyenko, Yeltsin's controversial choice for the post.

The assembly is due to vote on Kiriyenko's candidacy next Friday for the second time,
having already rejected him once, and will trigger its own dismissal and an early election
if it rejects him three times.

The confusions of Russian politics had less effect on palladium's sister metal platinum,
which was last well below its New York close at $423.00/$425.00 versus $426.50/$428.50,
after sales during Tokyo trade.

Gold fixed at $309.50 in the morning, up on Thursday afternoon's $307.65 but with spot
metal trading below Monday's New York close of $310.90/$311.40.

One factor holding gold down on Tuesday was a return to recent peaks in the Australian
dollar-denominated gold price, last at A$477.24/A$478.75, and the threat of producer
sales in the wake of it.

Buoyancy in locally priced gold came on the back of weakness in the underlying unit,
which fell on Tuesday almost a full cent versus the dollar to below $0.6500.

Kamal Naqvi, precious metals analyst at Macquarie Equities Ltd, said in a Tuesday report
that Australian producers had been reluctant so far to wade in with wide-scale sales
because of improved sentiment towards bullion.

``However, there are reports that there are several producers looking at large forward
sales at A$475/oz and $480/oz,'' he said.

``Such resistance implies strong resistance for the gold price around US$315/oz, at current
exchange rates, in the short to medium term,'' he said.

Silver was just down at $6.38/$6.41 versus its New York close of $6.39/$6.42.

Everytime I see these reports that the Euro will be primarily backed with U.S. dollars, I wonder how GoldBugs can conclude that this means the dollar will be weakened when the new "Euro" comes online in 99!

Happy Birthday.
Did you read my post last week about RPP and CTR?

LGB:

Thank you for your declaration to RJ that your purpose has now been accomplished and the "ANOTHER cult has dwindled to ..." which pretty much confirms what has been said here on the subject, in the process giving the lie to all your protestations to the contrary.

You have probably also noticed that interesting posts have been dwindling, too. But that's OK, your own are probably the only ones that you find interesting anyway. There's certainly no shortage of those; and if there were, there's always plenty more where they came from.

I guess the way is now open to establish the LGB cult. Happy days are here again! Have a nice day Poorboy, etc. Hey, here's an idea: Why don't you ask Bart to readmit Heavy Hitter. He'd probably be so grateful he'd join your cult right away. Maybe Bernatz will hang around more now, too.

Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern on the Dow shows a target of roughly 9350-9400. The End is Nigh.

Happy Birthday!

Over the last couple of years, Credit Cards have all rotated to "prime plus" for interest rate calculations.

New developments:
Citi Bank, Chase, etc.

Interest rates where prime + 10% = 30%+ @19980's prime;
they are now prime + 14.5% = 35%+ @ 1980's prime.

Plus amount of credit line being reduced.

I just opened my mail.

1973 Interest rates will rise @ next meeting.
Go Gold!!!!!

HighRise

I agree. It is also a revealing statement as to the continuing strength of US$ but shows quantum lack of thought by EMU in the eventual decline of US$.

IMO, if the EMU takes the easy way out with US$ backing , then it will only postpone the inevitable and will possibly give Japan an opportunity to come out with the universal currency.

This would be a shot in the arm for Japan & SEAsia.

That represents another dead canary in the mine. I thinks that 3 or 4 dead birds this week.

HighRise

These ECB 70% of external reserves in dollars ( something about US$ 38,5 B ) is a reserve for possible interventions against dollar - if needed.

I like your idea with putting more money into a SA specialized mining fund. I guess VRONSKY is the expert. ( Go to www.golden-eagle.com ) .

I don't know what to think about the LBMA originated opinion concerning the EURO backing. The LBMA is London based and U.K. doesn't participate in the EURO project.
If the political heads of the EMU would decide that the EURO should be backed 70% by USdollars, that could also turn out to become a dollar backing by the EURO: it would strengthen the USdollar on the expense of the EURO. Therefore this sounds a little bit like wishful thinking expressed by a voice which belongs to the dollar influenced area.

Don't forget that the pound is backed right now by $300 billion dollar. Much more than the Yen! While the German Bundesbank holds only $90 billion US$ in reserves and the French are traditionally even more reluctant towards the US$. Just think of DeGaulle's famous action to convert France's USdollar reserves into gold right before the gold standard for the dollar was abandonned.

I would be surprised if this LBMA dream comes true!

Alberich the Dwarf

Nazi Gold. Dirty Gold. The Drug Lord's Gold. The Cultists of Gold. The Gold Religion. The Myth of Gold. The Gold Fanatics. The Propaganda Campaign in the United States War on Gold is heating up. Gold is not patriotic.

PH, go peddle your garbage somewhere else. RJ specifically stated that "He would be gone for a time, yes?" in direct response to some of the absolute nonsense, re the ANOTHET cult, he was being made to suffer at the hands of the Neurologically challenged here. He is not someone inclined to "suffer fools gladly".


Posts from the likes of RJ may not be "interesting" to you...since he only has made the BEST MARKET CALLS ON THE FORUM to date... clearly stated in advance...and with CLEAR and concise rationale behind them....but I find his posts of great interest to anyone who'd rather invest profitably in the metals.....rather than speculate on the nuances of linguuistic meaning in someone's obtuse theory.

Pound sand PH. By the way, where have YOUR brilliant market analysis commentaries been lately? Hmmm, perhaps I can't recall a contribution from you.......

Gold - Still meandering in the middle of its recently defined upward-trending channel. On this chart it has clearly broken out of its down trend. I would like, and expect, gold to touch the top of this channel, between 315 and 320, before it tests the channel bottom again. But, who knows ....?

Silver - Still have no well defined channel, but I like this new one better than the one I showed last week. Its shows an upward slope roughly equal to that of gold. I'm surprised to see the apparent divergence today between silver and gold. Gold seems to be holding up, while silver is breaking below recent lows ( at least in the futures market ) . To me, it would seem logical that gold and silver would move together to the tops of their respective channels, but then, what does logic have to do with it? :- )

Platinum - As I expected, platinum has approached its channel top, with a London closing of 429. I have closed out my long position, and am now short. I hope this isn't the time when platinum decides to break out of the channel. So far so good.

Palladium - Since platinum and palladium tend to peak together, I also closed my palladium long today. I would love to go short, with the spot price even higher than the $310 that I expected, but with backwardation in excess of $30, it seems a bit risky. Think I'll wait a couple of days, and see what happens.

Spud, since you brought it up. Stillwater really has been performing well. Up almost 60% as of today in less than 3 months! Latest release from yesterday, new VP to help expand their operations, marketing position, hedging strategies, etc.

Stillwater Mining Names Vice President, Metals Marketing

DENVER, April 13 /PRNewswire/ -- STILLWATER MINING COMPANY ( Amex: SWC - news ) announced the appointment
of Robert C. Lapple, 39, as Vice President, Metals Marketing for the Company.

``We are creating a new position to increase the external focus of our Company,'' said William E. Nettles, Chairman and Chief
Executive Officer. ``The markets for our metals are growing, and supply is variable. An in-depth understanding of the short
and long term dynamics of the markets will enable us to maximize short term profitability and develop hedging and
investment strategies to support rapid expansion of the Company.'' Nettles went on, ``Bob Lapple brings fifteen years of
experience in the platinum group metals markets, a wealth of industry contacts and proven skills in metals trading and sales.''

Lapple was most recently with Gerald Metals Inc./PGP Industries Inc. as Director, Precious Metals. From 1989 to 1996, he
was with The Mocatta Group of Standard Chartered Bank and Engelhard Corporation [NYSE:EC - news] as a vice president
responsible for sales and marketing. He began his career in precious metals trading in 1983 with Gerald Metals. He graduated
from Davidson College, Davidson, North Carolina, with a B.A. in Economics.

The market is NOT ready for a crash ( a position I already expressed on this thread ) ... Many "crash triggering" factors are totally missing in the USA. But we are entering a period of high volatility AND possibly a euphoric market blow off ( rapid rise to 10000 ) ... while POG will solidify and gold stocks should make higher highs and higher lows... Then a significant market correction will occur... and if deflation shows up WITH unemployment rising AND with bank failures in the US,... then and only then we will have a true stock market crash...Great trading times...
Just IMHO.
Gaston

For Brother Oris
Another interesting possibility is that the gold -silver
ratio that has been firm in recent weeks will hold
gold as high as 300. For example, silver is now the weak
metal and seems headed for 6$. The gold silver ratio has
ranged from 46 to 50 . With silver at 6 we get gold
between 6 * 46 = 276 and 6 *50 = 300.
As I sell RSA golds, Ive been adding Northam plats
and Impala plats. The palladium move is impressive
and will simply force sustitution of platinum into
what were formally palladium uses. Platinum will benefit
in a big way.

AUH2O: Appreciate your post about how much gold backing the Euro will get. I believe your post said 30%, 70% backed by the dollar. I think these are the external reserves, only for the Euro currency. Internal reserves for the individual currencies -- Deutsche Mark, French Frank, etc -- will probably be unchanged for some time.

I think 30% is bullish for gold, but what we need is a clear statement about the total of internal and external reserves, now that we are told that the new Europoean central bank is to 'control' all gold purchases and sales.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether the Euro bankers can really tell a member CB to buy or sell their gold, and where the gold is to stay. The pro-gold stance of the BIS is a wild card in all of this. It will be interesting to see whether the new euro CB Chairman is a Belgian with Rothschild/BIS connections, or a German.

I see gold is moving today-in the opposite direction I expected. Oh well, at least if it goes down another $3-4 I can pick up more contracts for Dec. Patience my son,patience. Tom

John need plat diversification. What are the ADR symbols for Northern and Impala? Thanks.

Thanks for the Yahoo link. If you go to the latest update, the last sentence says that "the funds have now gone Net Long according to the CFTC report." My confusion could be cleared up if I knew what they meant by "the funds". Is this the Large Traders or Commercials? What category do the "the funds" fall into. Thanks!

Silver has been topping out since hitting $7.50 and is going to $5US/oz. Using the 48:1 ratio, gold could go to 240. The XAU is headed down below 60.

The market is NOT ready for a crash ( a position I already expressed on this thread ) ... Many "crash triggering" factors are totally missing in the USA. But we are entering a period of high volatility AND possibly a euphoric market blow off ( rapid rise to 10000 ) ... while POG will solidify and gold stocks should make higher highs and higher lows... Then a significant market correction will occur... and if deflation shows up WITH unemployment rising AND with bank failures in the US,... then and only then we will have a true stock market crash...Great trading times...
Just IMHO.
Gaston

LGB:

As usual, you find it impossible to understand the writings of anyone besides yourself, the mark of the truly self-obsessed. If your could, you would know that I said there were fewer interesting posts here lately, and that includes, if you recall, those of RJ.

Part of your own cultish behaviour ( towards yourself ) includes your constant worship of profitability in your investments. You just cannot comprehend that there are people who would ever seek anything else in life, such as understanding, for example. Another mark of self-obsesion.

Your "pound sand" remark, whatever it is supposed to mean, sounds like Heavy at his best. "Garbage" ? etc. More inspired vocabulary, just like a guy anyone would find "so nice it would be disgusting". Guess you're sure right there.

To my knowledge 30% = Gold + Yen

Glad to see your continuing to contribute so much valuable precious metals related information to the forum. It far eclispes my own contributions I'm sure, as proven by your each and every post. I will be gone for a time, yes?

I have the impression you missread the original message a little bit:
it says 70% US$, 15% gold, 15% Yen.

Alberich the Dwarf

LGB- Could you post that NewsWeek report of give a URL?

Thanks!

Tally Ho

JSE All Gold Index down 0.42% to 942.

If the Japanese representative at the upcoming meeting is even overheard talking about gold all short-term prognostications on gold will go to hell in a hand basket. The yellow will make a nice jump, straight up.

Don't beleive everything you read. See with your minds eye. If the European currency is to compete with the US dollar why would it be backed by the competion? The sole purpose of the Euro is to compete with the US, not to support the present dollar dominance. Any alternatives to backing with the US dollar? Gold,perhaps? Think of the alternatives and ramifications. Just my opinions but also remember with the introduction of the Euro they will value gold at current market value. Why? Time will tell if my thought are valid. Tom

You are a digit off. JGAI is down 4.2% ( Johannesburg gold index )

FWIW,get set for a counterrally,could last
for 6 hours,PDG closed the 13 1/2 gap.Happy trading

Lexington Strategic Investments ( STIVX ) places a major portion of the fund's portfolio in the republic of South Africa. All gold funds, such as LEXMX, EMGSX, SCGDX, & VGPMX will do very well for the next couple years.

whew! I thought it would never be 'gone for a time.....no'? It has been on kitco CONSTANTLY for the last few days. It gets OLD. Not that some of it's stuff isn't decent..... yadda-yadda-yadda...how long will it last ( be gone ) , YES? I will relish the vacation though. The air sems to be clearing already.......

away...from Narcissus



DJ - perhaps excellent timing.....I hope not. charts don't lie, eh? Good show mate.

Is the Asian crisis an example of inflation or deflation ? Or BOTH at the same time. Here, currency, equity & property values have fallen ( deflated ) while prices for many goods & services, particularly those which are imported have risen ( inflated ) . Any comments please ?

I use the same logic you use. And it's not
just financial side of the story...
More than that, it would be also politically
incorrect for EMU to rely on US$ too much.

Looking for gold funds? Eaglewing Research compares 33 of them.

http://www.eaglewing.com

Sorry I can't help you with the breakout of what is what, as I haven't followed the numbers reported there with any regularity. Maybe Silverbaron can help sort things out. If so...this source may give a clue which way things are headed prior to the 2 week reporting of the numbers Silverbaron follows. Then again, Silverbaron may tell us these numbers aren't as reliable.

Happy birthday! Here's one for ya -

http://www.columbia.edu/acis/bartleby/frost/60.html

Knew in advance you'd be waitin in the wings with such cleverness...so tiresomely predictable...away, burp...buzz, ech, for a...?* ( &%$#@ time...

Sorry, it's a hard copy, I don't have a URL.... Now...at last.. ( so "burp" ) EB %$# can uhm breath...teh air n' dip scotch to tongue...Puff, fer a Lonnng Loooonnngg , time , POoo Uh, imeanitmeanstosay 'poof'

LGB- thanks, I will pick up a copy at the airport, got to go
to the LEFT coast Saday.

Tally Ho

http://194.216.217.166//archive/7070nd2.htm

down another $3-4 I can pick up more contracts for Dec. Patience my son,patience. Tom

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

At Kitco that's maybe patients, constant patients. : )

I would dearly love to help, but I too, have not been following these COT numbers with dilligence.

My general sense is, that the small specs ( being trend followers ) are right except at market extremes. The question then, is, what is a market extreme - I sure hope that a $30 or 10% move in gold doesn't qualify. I have no idea what the Kaplan or Yahoo interim data source is, if it is not officially published by COMEX. Probably the 'Funds' indicated in the Yahoo piece are not in the commerciall or small spec categories. Maybe the Kitco people on the COMEX floor can help out here.

I'm much more interested in A. Goose's thesis of the elligible gold & silver stock reserves at COMEX as being important for the bullish nature of the markets. So long as the stockpiles continue dropping ( on a trend basis, not day-to day ) , and the markets remain orderly ( not radically overbought ) I'll keep my positions. However, if Kaplan's scenario of a blow-off occurs, I'll be watching the charts for an intermediate term top to sell into.

The following charts are part of a trading/forecasting site that someone posted a couple of weeks ago on the forum. These interest me now, after Kaplan's projection of a blow-off, because they are also forecasting a blow-off in the Toronto Precious Metal Index followed by a significant decline. Something to watch as a guide, at least.

long term chart:

http://home.istar.ca/~inpath/gold.gif

short term chart:

http://home.istar.ca/~inpath/gold-cl.gif

Alberich,Delphi: Thanks for the correction. 70%Dollar/15%gold/15%yen. Interesting combination.

I have been trying to access Antony C. Sutton for some time on the net, as I think he would be able to answer alot of questions about the BIS/gold/Euro question. Does anyone know if he is still alive?

He wrote 'The Federal Reserve Conspiracy' in 1995, and rewrote 'Trilaterals over America' in 1995 -- complements of our learned aurators post of the Flatlander web site.

Unfortunately, Antony Sutton has not rewritten his book, 'The Gold War', published around 1975. That book is the most relevant to us, as it describes in detail the relationship between the BIS/IMF and the US. Sutton knows about some kind of US indebtedness to the BIS, which the BIS was able to use to coerce the US into supporting gold at about the time of the Rambouillet meeting in France -- 1975.

Sutton's comments about Breton Woods are telling. The essential point of that meeting was the the European countries had to go on the 'dollar standard', and that only the dollar could be directly converted into gold. Since the european countries had just come out of WWII essentially penniless, they had to do whatever the US said, since only the US had any gold ( with the exception of Switzerland ) . Incidentally, does anyone know how the Rothschilds kept their gold away from Nazi hands?

The Rambouillet meeting reduced US dominance, and the US gold sales to enforce a totally unreallistic gold price gave the Europeans a chance to get their own gold, and an opportunity to stand up to the US.

I think all of this is especially relevant to us, as we are now ending yet another period of CB gold sales, in an attempt to 'trash' gold. Also, just as in the Rambouillet period, the BIS is regaining strength, and is likely to call in any chips still outstanding.

EB: Glad you were able to find a time to post during a quiet moment. The Kitcoite most outspoken about achieving balance actually is quite successful in achieiving the opposite. I think he likes to hear himself talk.

Huh?

I still love you lgb. You are the opposite side of the coin. It is good here. I like your investment style. Ya just always seem to rub some the wrong way. Beer to ya'! Keep on keepin on. ( no, really ) ...

away...to the grind

igPlat{;- ) ( $ ) !

"Reporters could not be economically independent because they had to rely on others for their salaries. Often, their work could be somewhat independent of a publisher's view, but not, as many historians note, at constant cross-purposes, or they would soon be unemployed."

"Reporting did differ from other professions in the early twentieth century, particularly as the reporter's ability to influence public opinion emerged as a powerful force. Individualism was an accepted occupational trait for reporters within commercial enterprises, but independence exhibited through confrontation with structures in and outside the newsroom was not tolerated."

" As Williams observed in 1925, the professions of Law, Medicine, and the Ministry had for generations had ''the prescriptive position and conventional respect '' that created ''their training, their traditions and their position in society'' The difference between these three professions and newspaper reporting was a critical one:::

''More serious still, the three callings cited are not only drawn, as to much of their membership from the advantaged; these professions are approved by the advantaged.... Journalism is not so approved...Its chief achievement in the past, and its chief task in the future, is to reduce the advantages of the advantaged.....For this it came into the world....It is the chief weapon created by many to this end ''

" Given the role of newspapers in forming public opinion, particularly as the word union signified worker confrontation of industry through organization of a work group. Because they represented a challenge to a business owner's total control over a labour force, unions were feared and despised."

" Ross observed in 1910, newspaper coverage of worker issues was such that ''during labour disputes the facts are usually distorted to the injury of labour''"

" The alacrity ( cheerful readiness ) with which many dailies serve as mouthpieces of financial powers came out very clearly during the recent "Industrial Depression." The owner of one leading newspaper called his reporters together and said in effect, ''boys, the first of you who turns in a story of a layoff or a shut-down gets the sack ''"

" Newspaper publishers could not afford the wrath of advertisers, industrialists, bankers, and politicians if their own commercial success was to continue. It was more profitable to present information on labour issues that supported managements side"

FWIW Take Care

Alberich, I never knew DeGaulle wanted to do this. I knew he had a grudge against the US-UK govt who wanted to put their own puppet in as French president after WWII. He pulled France out of Nato, nationalised most industies, but I did not know he wanted to exchange dollar reserves for gold. That is pretty daring. Someone who had that kind of thinking would almost definitely take a bullet. Was he still alive around that time ( end of US gold standard ) and was he still president? How did he die? Natural causes I suppose they say?

By DAVID THOMAS
Economics Reporter The Financial Post
Economic growth is slowing, but interest rates will head up in Canada and the U.S. if the
deceleration isn't fast enough, the International Monetary Fund says in its semi-annual World
Economic Outlook.
The IMF addressed other economic risks yesterday, including a possible downturn in the US$
and a correction in stock prices.
Once again, Canada was forecast to lead the major industrial economies, with a 3.2%
expansion in gross domestic product in 1998. Last week, the Organization for Economic
Co-operation & Development pegged the country's growth at 3.3% this year.
Growth is expected to slow to 2.8% in 1999, leaving Canada tied among Group of Seven
nations with Germany in second spot behind France at 3%, the IMF says. Canada tied the U.S.
for tops last year when both economies expanded by 3.8%.
Higher rates are not warranted today in Canada but if the economy performs better than
expected, a rate increase will be needed to keep inflation at bay, the IMF says.
The U.S. economy is expected to slow nearly one percentage point to 2.9% this year, but its
recent expansion has shown unusual resilience and may need to be cooled with higher rates.
"It is possible that if the U.S. economy doesn't slow down on its own, that some time later this
year or early next year, the Federal Reserve will need to make monetary conditions somewhat
firmer," says Michael Mussa, the IMF's director of research.
Inflation in the U.S. is largely dormant but is still a concern in the labor market, where wages
are rising faster than the price of goods. The market is tight with the jobless rate at just 4.7%,
near a 24-year low. A strong US$ has kept a lid on inflation but if the U.S. trade deficit balloons
as Asian nations try to export their way out of their slumps, the currency could take a hit, the
report says. The US$ would suffer if overseas investors were spooked by a huge trade deficit
and dumped US$-denominated securities for other currencies.
Mussa says most measures "indicate equity prices are at or near their peaks," but the U.S.
economy is strong enough to weather even a severe correction of 20% in stock prices.
"While I think there needs to be a concern about U.S. equity markets, I don't feel there is
reason to fear large, adverse consequences from a correction," he says. The effect of such a
correction would be "mild."
One factor that may support higher equity valuations is the sheer volume of retirement
savings flows, he says.
- with files from Reuters and Dow Jones

For Myrmidon
I have no idea what adr symbol for Implats.
I doubt if there is an adr for northam but I may
be mistaken.
For Robnoel ..
I am ex smoker who fights for rights of others
to smoke. I dislike the concept of a Government
approved death. The anti smoke lobby is very
Nazi like .. and the Nazis were the ultimate
social engineers. Hillary would have fitted
right in ..
For 2bro2b..
You are right .. find out what the commercials
are doing then do the opposite. They seem like
a bunch of clots.
To all ..
I dont BELIEVE that harmony .. I sold off
ANOTHER burnt offerring today.

.

By DAVID THOMAS
Economics Reporter The Financial Post
Economic growth is slowing, but interest rates will head up in Canada and the U.S. if the
deceleration isn't fast enough, the International Monetary Fund says in its semi-annual World
Economic Outlook.
The IMF addressed other economic risks yesterday, including a possible downturn in the US$
and a correction in stock prices.
Once again, Canada was forecast to lead the major industrial economies, with a 3.2%
expansion in gross domestic product in 1998. Last week, the Organization for Economic
Co-operation & Development pegged the country's growth at 3.3% this year.
Growth is expected to slow to 2.8% in 1999, leaving Canada tied among Group of Seven
nations with Germany in second spot behind France at 3%, the IMF says. Canada tied the U.S.
for tops last year when both economies expanded by 3.8%.
Higher rates are not warranted today in Canada but if the economy performs better than
expected, a rate increase will be needed to keep inflation at bay, the IMF says.
The U.S. economy is expected to slow nearly one percentage point to 2.9% this year, but its
recent expansion has shown unusual resilience and may need to be cooled with higher rates.
"It is possible that if the U.S. economy doesn't slow down on its own, that some time later this
year or early next year, the Federal Reserve will need to make monetary conditions somewhat
firmer," says Michael Mussa, the IMF's director of research.
Inflation in the U.S. is largely dormant but is still a concern in the labor market, where wages
are rising faster than the price of goods. The market is tight with the jobless rate at just 4.7%,
near a 24-year low. A strong US$ has kept a lid on inflation but if the U.S. trade deficit balloons
as Asian nations try to export their way out of their slumps, the currency could take a hit, the
report says. The US$ would suffer if overseas investors were spooked by a huge trade deficit
and dumped US$-denominated securities for other currencies.
Mussa says most measures "indicate equity prices are at or near their peaks," but the U.S.
economy is strong enough to weather even a severe correction of 20% in stock prices.
"While I think there needs to be a concern about U.S. equity markets, I don't feel there is
reason to fear large, adverse consequences from a correction," he says. The effect of such a
correction would be "mild."
One factor that may support higher equity valuations is the sheer volume of retirement
savings flows, he says.
- with files from Reuters and Dow Jones

I have been spreading the ( quite possible ) rumour for about 4 months now that Bill J Klinton will be playing golf at Ballybunion in Ireland in late April or early May.

Now this peace deal is brokered in Ireland and Klinton claims a lot of responsibility and he is Thinking???? of visiting the North for this accord, as if he never had the attention of coming to Ireland in the first place.

Are major world events being scheduled around BJ Klinton's golf schedule?

Pay close attention. I bet Klinton goes to visit the North, and he'll squeeze in a golf outing in Ballybunion at the same time. Or should I say he'll squeeze in a peace accord between rounds.

If you want to find out when he is golfing there, it will be the day ( s ) when you can't make a reservation at the golf club.

Last check--

dd -2.3%

rangy +2.7%

hgmcy -2%

jgai -.43%

FDPMX/FSAGX headed south -1%

Cabeza de Queso Oro/leary/tune in/turn on-- no American trades

Thanks for the greetings!
Servhard - Sorry I missed that post re. CTR and RPP. What day and time did you post? I searched Kitco looking for replies but, alas, the search engine is not the best.

Degaulle was president around this time and from my memory was president til mid seventies. The only reason the french and everyone else wanted to exchange their dollars ( from trade etc ) was the USG published price for gold was 34.00 per oz. The european community would export to US, be paid in US$ and then demand payment in gold. ( at that time our ( US currency stated that the dollar ( s ) were convertible into gold on demand ) The real price of gold was much higher than 34.00 per oz and as a result, the US Treasury was depleted by many million ounces of gold . It was a cant win situation for US and a cant lose situation for any foreign country with dollars. I believe Nixon was president during most of this time which would be early to mid l970.

Degaulle died from old age. He was approaching 80. I understand that he had a young mistress at the time of his death. mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Above is based on memory and is thought to be accurate.

IMF

For Gianni dioro
The US UK puppet was general Giraud ( sp?? ) .
I also heard de Gaulle regularly exchanged US
reserves for gold and accused the US of "exporting
inflation". Roosevelt nicknamed him Joan of Arc.
There were assassination attempts with bombs
but they were linked to him wanting to pull out
of Algeria. Then Edward Fox disguised as
the JACKEL tried to kill him in that great film
day of the JACKEL.

Call me A.Goose, but I see this as a buying opportunity. Gold dipped briefly in March and then started heading up. As they say around the DOW, buying the dips are your best opportunity. Well, NOW it works for the gold sector.

Just think how much money you would have made if you bought the last dip in Palladium.

IMO

Too bad they missed DeGaulle so many times. EH

To all
Some crazy guy said Harmony was DOWN but I make it up 1/8.
It must go up because I made an OFFERING TO THE GOLD GOD.
( the actual theory behind an "offering" is that you have
a LOT of a stock and you sell a little bit .. Then the BIG
GUY thinks you've sold OUT and he makes the stock go up ) . Dont
knock it.

Hmmm...

Need a quick, FREE translation...
http://babelfish.altavista.digital.com/cgi-bin/translate?
Aplogies for going off topic, but I figured this would be useful to some of you.

My friend, you seem very impressed that RJ forecast palladium would surpass gold in value this year.

Why are you so impressed?

Mr. RJ, gold short at large, also forecast that gold would completely trash this year ( In his last few posts, he predicted gold would make a beeline below 280...seems to have not foreseen this recent strength in gold ) Anyway, by extrapolation, of course, he would predict that Palladium would surpass gold in value. He is so negative on gold that I imagine he expects the cost of paper to surpass the value of gold this year.

You are truly a source of amusement to me.

Thanks.

F*

Thanks, I needed this . Love that Kitco eh!

I dug up my French History booklet from college. It says DeGaulle resigned in 1969. Georges Pompidou was elected president 15 june, 1969.

Also I guess it's pretty common to have mistresses. Mitterand's illegitimate daughter is gracing the covers of French magazines today.

I don't really care if BJK sleeps around, it's just his arrogance and his lying about it. Also, he doesn't have just a mistress, he runs around like a dog in heat.

Oh, I saw on French Television ( Les Guignols ) last week, a puppet of Clinton playing a video game called "Clinton F*cker". It was pretty funny, he was running around the whitehouse chasing women with a big erection. He ended up losing because he accidently f*cked his wife.

Is this what you seek? Impala Platinum Holdings AD ( symbol=impay )

Thanks! This program is a goodie! I have been wondering just how in the world I could get a translation of Stephane Ceaux-Dutheil's work at

http://home.worldnet.fr/scdut/default.htm

I just tried the program and it works pretty well - enough to get the sense of his meaning.

Sorry - that URL should be

http://home.worldnet.fr/scdut/default.shtml

Gen DeGaulle wasn't the only one wanting gold for dollars. Although the US budget was almost balanced in late 60's, the balance of payments was setting records, partially due to spending in Vietnam. With a rising Dow and mutual fund craze of the late 60's, the balance of trade was not considered important by US leaders until the Europeans led by de Gaulle, who had an excess of greenbacks in their possession, realized that the US was exporting inflation to the rest of the world. Does this sound familiar to today, or what?

De Gaulle began to take gold as he redeamed dollars and would have taken it all if Nixon had not closed the window.

The stock market slowed and the mutual fund mania of the 60's crashed, many mutual funds going out of business. Fort Knox lost some gold but then gold rapidly went from about $35 to 200 in short order.

I bought sure-thing Winnebago at $27 because the economy was booming with yuppies ( now boomers ) , and later sold at $5 when the oil crisis parked all of the RV's. Live and learn.

Since I'm on the subject of BJK and French media, in 1992-93 I had a French tabloid, "France Dimanche". They had a story titled, "Clinton, quelle chaud lapin!" ( Clinton what a horny B*stard! ) . The article was around the time of the Jennifer Flowers scandal. Along with Ms Flowers, 4 othere women were linked to him, including a former Playboy centerfold.

The part of the post for you was:
RPP has 742 455 987 million shares outst.
On Dec.16/97 the shares were down to Can$.10- the next day
78 211 650 shares traded.
Going in at that day and holding on, would have beaten the PM's.
Templeton Managemant and T.D. Bank hold over 25%.
CTR is tightly held with low float. Many Funds hold what they have.
A jump of $2.00 on low volume is nothing speciall.

S.

Whoops, correct. Rangy down, Harmony again up.

Lexdyslic 'fingers.'

Gotten through about half of Polarbear's 700k
reference materials and am more positive and
impressed about the changes occurring in the
SA mining sector and prospects for relative
outperformance, strong outperformance should
the price of gold ever cooperate.

http://home.worldnet.fr/scdut/default.shtml

RJ's been all over the board on Gold, depending on a number of factors at a given time. He's held Gold shorts as a hedge at times, as he has plainly stated. He is unwedded to a Gold short or long position as a philosophical point of view. He's a trader ( and one that has been making his clients a BUNDLE no doubt ) , and his views have been plainyl stated so many times here, that you're happily twisted rewrite of his views show your credibility as ZERO.

What he also plainly stated, MANY times...and you seem to have somehow missed, being the blind monolithic Gold fanatic that you are... is that Silver, Platinum, and Palladium will FAR outperform Gold in the near term.

RJ is the ONLY one who consistently hammered this message home here, and RJ is the ONLY one who has been 100 % ...yes ONE HUNDRED PERCENT accurate in that very astute call.

Now, I shan't presume to speak for RJ, lest I become cultic as the ANOTHER interpreters have been, however, even the most basic, cursory, and non interpretive readings of his posts, can't twist the record of his clearly stated position, as you so blithely seem able to do.

The record, history, and the facts speak for themselves. Whether it's RJ's posts, the metals historical charts, Gold's performance vs. the stock market past 2 decades, basic Equity bull philosophy and what it's grounded on, or any of the other issues you conviently twist to suit your singular point of view.

As the quote goes "The thing speaks for itself.."

Single minded one note Zealots like yourself, will never succeed in rewriting history Farfel, no matter how much enthusiasm you put into the task. Go back to your simple statements will you....

Write 500 times on the blackboard....

I don't care, I'm buying more Gold
I don't care, I'm buying more Gold
I don't care.......

...of goldbugs wondering about whether the EURO is good for gold... or bad for gold. The angst is especially keen in discussing whether the backing will be 5%...or 15%...or 30%.

Under the NEW GOLD PARADIGM, it does not matter whether the EURO manifests itself or not...in either scenario, the net result is a positive for gold. If the EURO fails, then the multi-currency European status quo prevails...gold will increase in value to reflect its demand as the pandemic European currency. Moreover, if the EURO succeeds, it is even better for gold in that a new global reserve currency will be ready to supplant dollar reserves.

Furthermore, a mere 5% gold reserve support behind the EURO is bullish for gold, given that the market has already discounted today's POG on the basis of the lowest forecast and such a low end reserve announcement will remove the uncertainty overhanging the market. Upon such an announcement, gold should rally to 350 at the low end this year.

A 10% gold reserve support is very bullish for gold, since it represents a 100% increase in market expectations of the EURO gold support. Upon such an announcement, gold should rally to 375-400 on the low end this year.

Anything above 10% gold reserve support is ultra bullish, given that it will represent a level far higher than any expectations of gold support by the most radical optimists. Upon such an announcement, gold should rally to well in excess of 400 this year.

In case you have problems remembering the preceding permutations, let me provide you the obligatory catch slogans:

IF IT'S JUST FIVE, GOLD'S GOING HIGH!
IF IT'S JUST TEN, GOLD'S YOUR FRIEND!
IF IT'S ANYTHING MORE, WATCH GOLD ROAR!

Thanks.

F*

If any gov't is going to use gold as an asset. They will probably talk gold up so that less of it would be required for any thing they had in mind.

Much appreciated.

Yo Ceaux-Dutheil~~~~~~~~~*Go French-GOLD*

It appears to me if the Euro had no gold backing whatsoever, then it would be a joke and everyone would abandon it for gold.

If it were strongly backed by gold, then why would people need to hold gold? Wouldn't a higher percentage of gold backing be negative for gold in the long run? Or would it be that a higher gold value would be necessary for gold backing.

And what is this gold backing anyway? We know that with the fractional reserve system money is created out of thin air. Can't a bank just write a blank check and buy up buildings or whatever as long as it keeps something like 10% of reserves?

So what I am asking is this, with the fractional reserve banking system, isn't gold backing of a currency dilluted???

With your permission, I posted your chart on the Yahoo RYO msg board, which is viewed by many gold bugs looking for alternative to RYO investments.

Am I the only one that can't get into Kitco.com for prices?
Sure would have figured Bart would be up and runnin by now.

Tally Ho

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980413/japan_doll_1.html
- c

...that even you can understand.

In my last discussion with Mr. RJ, he announced that gold was definitely headed South and it would see 280 before it ever saw 310 ( he was unmitigatedly wrong and that is why we no longer hear from him...it's called embarrassment ) ...

At the same time, he forecast that Palladium would surpass gold in value... ( he was right...but for the wrong reasons...not because of weakness in gold but simply because of unusual strength in palladium ) ....

Ergo, as per my previous post addressed to you, it is not particularly impressive that RJ made the call, declaring "Palladium will be worth more than gold this year."

After all, when someone is announcing that a particular metal ( Gold ) is headed for the toilet, then that same person could forecast that virtually any commodity is headed higher than gold ( and, ultimately, that person would be right, correct? ) .

Now, do you understand, my "gold-always-viewed-as-a-half-empty-glass" friend?

Thanks.

F*

duh

Teddo-- how many square feet you hammerin' up anyway.

Blossoming out and lily pads are up but still lotsa
cool, gotta go buy some heat..pellets, not wood. Got
tired of bugs, moss, splitting, stacking...

Farfel...god ole Farfel

There are two kinds of thinkers in this world.

1 ) Those who gather facts, and try and objectively interpret them in order to form an opinion that fits the facts.

2 ) Those who form an opinion, and then gather facts to try and force them to fit the opinion.

Some of us try to strive for #1. You are not one of them.

( PS the glass is half full....rigid, monolithic, dogmatics are a frightening breed, whether political, economic, metaphysical, social, or scientific. Nothing frightens me more than a world full of folks who could lok at the Moon and tell me it's made of Green cheese, no matter what the facts at hand may indicate..... )

Now look what you did clone-- blue, blue, the
world's gone blue.

...people who gather facts to support an opinion?

I assume you are speaking of your Wall Street Bull Brethren who collect all variety of fabrications to justify a stock market in a state of sheer verticality.

Of course, naturally, I agree that you belong in this category.

Still Love Ya,

Thanks.

F*

I'm outta here before it redlines...

http://home.worldnet.fr/scdut/default.shtml

Blue is better than red, yes?

On that note of agreement I'll end this thread. I do INDEED find mindless unthinking faith to pro DOW dogma, as equally frightening, as any other dogmatic point of view. That's why I'm a long term stock bull with no Equity funds in my portfolio at present, and a LARGE proportional position in metals.

test

being on the wrong side of the market all of the time

The XAU left a gap between 84 and 84.5 ( thereabouts ) on its way up. It's mucked about for days and looks to close today just above it. A gap down tomorrow leaves an island reversal. Next stop for XAU 80.00

send a shiver through the markets. Rubin flapping his pie hole, the Japanese getting FED up with the US shooting off its big arrogant mouth. The paper pyramid is fragile and the US honchos know it.

What does it mean when large blocks of shares are traded within the same brokerage? I see this quite often with GEO:TSE.
( PS. You absolutely know that the market is headed for a correction when the small fry like myself get into it. )

This is a test. My previous message of more than one line does not transmitt. TEST TEST.

kitcat
great site now I can really enjoy Stphane's site. My french is easily stretched.

Warms rabbits to you all!

Sorry for my late response Tom.

Tom, you posted:

Date: Mon Apr 13 1998 00:00
TYoung ( Pete-Another ) ID#317193:
If Another is for real he/she/they is not gone. No one purporting to share such "thoughts" for the higher purpose of truth and wisdom would ever bolt based on what one or even a few people posted. Who the heck would even care about what somebody you did not know posted. No, it's either total BS or will post again. Tom

Tom, I have to disagree, as much as I hate to, because I normally agree with you and your positive approach to all matters. I will try to give you my reasons as follows:

1 ) LGB, in his left handed apology to another implies that he never derided another and his thoughts; ( think about that long and hard ) . He then goes on to rationalize that it was the cultists, sheep, ad naseum that got his ire up.

2 ) I posted after his infamous post about "SAVING TIME", that he owed an apology also to others in this forum that believed the thoughts of another were worthy of thier consideration. That to call these posters and lurkers vile and demeaning adjectives was at the least uncalled for. Have you seen an apology to the many posters and lurkers that thought another's thoughts were worth discussing? Should we insult LGB and call him a cultist because he fawns on RJ?

3 ) LGB has often espoused that many called the bottom price for gold, and would say, "PUUUUULEEEEES, not again, this is no earth shaking revelation". Whereas, PH in LA said another gave a very realistic explanation why the price of gold would stabilize, namely BIS reserve values. Has anyone else given this explanation?

4 ) LGB has returned to his old ways. Consider his recent posts to PH in LA. As Mike Sheller says,"He's a ricidivist", and will never change.

Tom, think about the tactics used by the Cintonistas, a spin to besmirch and smear. The very tactics that many here hate with a passion. These tactics have made Ken Starr, Paula Jones, etal the scapegoats regardless of the evidence.

Have not these same tactics been used by LGB and his gang? They continuously smeared another and his thoughts and those that followed his thoughts to the point that many others began believing the big lie.

You tell me what thier motives were. I believe that Albriech and Haggis were closer to the truth regarding thier motives than anyone else. Have you ever seen ANOTHER other than a gentlman in his posting? Have you ever seen him demean, besmirch or smear anyone, even LGB? One has to admire his CLASS and BEARING whether or not you believe him, yes? Did he not wish those that insulted him good wishes and a long life with sincerity?

Tom, ANOTHER has feelings like most. His last post basically said, "why do I need this abuse? Why should I post to those that will not give me the courtesy of giving my thoughts openly and freely without insulting me at every turn"?

Everybody on this forum should follow ANOTHERS ethical, manly behaviour, including myself, for I am not guiltless either. No my friend, ANOTHER will not be back, and it is not because he is a fraud. ( IMO ) Who has lost and who has won? Who would you rather have back?

I would treat LGB respectfully if I thought he was truly sincere. Until that time, I can not. Please forgive me.

Best regards,
pete

I'm with you. I would gladly trade 10 LGB's for one ANOTHER.

Date: Tue Apr 14 1998 14:31
farfel ( @ALL...I continue to be amused by the agonized musings... ) ID#340302:
Thanks for your optimistic contribution. I like it. But..

The Italians have their huge gold reserves evaluated at around $360/ounce. The Germans have their 3,700 tons dollarized quite a bit lower ( I think under $200 ) . I don't know about the French.

What if the EMU meeting decides to go along with the highest evaluation, the Italian one? Wouldn't this be bullish until the world has accepted the new gold price ( i.e., $360 ) , but what then?
Wouldn't this "fix" the gold price at that level? It would give the EURO a fixed price relative to gold but not relative to other currencies. Now, if the gold price in USdollar terms would go up, that would mean automatically a devaluation of the US$ relative to the EURO and vice versa.

The question is: what does any xx%, let's say 30% mean? If it means that the Europeans will issue one trillion EUROS, they will need to have for 300 billion EUROS an equivalent of ounces of gold in their EURO-CB cellar.
How much?
That can only be answered if we assume a fixed EURO price for one ounce. Lets assume 300 EUROS = one ounce of gold. That would mean in this example they would need one billion ounces in the EURO-CB cellar. ( Did I calculate right? )

My point is: after establishing such a fixed relation between gold and EURO, the price for gold can only move with a simultaneous move in currency terms of the rest of the world. Doesn't this impose a gold standard automatically for the rest of the world?

I'm worried and troubled.

Alberich the Dwarf

How about 1 million to 1?

TO: Gianni Dioro, ALBERICH et al. Larryn_A is correct when he says the US was exporting its inflation to the rest of the world. DeGaulle recognized that and said take your dollars and give me the gold ( didn't put in quotation marks - my paraphrasing ) .

The following true story illustrates the effect of DeGaulle's action. In either 1967 or 1968, I was an exploration geologist with Callahan Mining. The major shareholder and Chairman was Joseph H. Hirshhorn. Mr. Hirshhorn was a collector of contemporary art ( or anything that caught his fancy ) and each year made a buying trip to Europe, especially France.

He generally spent several millions of dollars on each of those trips.

The company held an exploration meeting in Palm Desert, CA and one evening we were all invited to have dinner with Mr. & Mrs. Hirshhorn at an exclusive club in Palm Springs.

Remember now, at the time of this meeting DeGaulle had already stated he wanted gold for dollars. OK. The waiter showed Mr. Hirshhorn a bottle of

That's why they dance around the entire issue of gold
in the Euro arrangements with no firm language either in
the original pact nor any since or public statements concerning.
It must be left necessarily vague because any firm commitment
is some sort of FIX. Floating rate exchange mechanisms don't
like FIX by definition, they like vague. Like real vague.

I think we should not forget to take a subtle distingo into consideration.
GOLD backing is not convertibility.ERGO whatever the backing will be ( and it certainly will turn out positive for GOLD ) I certainly would not trade a long GOLD position for a long Euro position leveraged to the extent of 1/ % Gold backing

I reviewed my comments before posting, but didn't get the completed message. Can anyone tell me what I did wrong?

I have no explanation to provide, but I await the end of the story!

I remember Callahan Mng. very well ( CMN ) . Back in those days of my youth I taded about 4 times the stock with profitable results. Then I lost it from the newspapers. What happened to CMN? Delisted?, Bankrupt? Merged?

Starting with the last sentence of my abbreviated post at 16:01 --

Remember now, at the time of this meeting DeGaulle had already stated he wanted gold for dollars. OK. The waitor showed Mr. Hirshhorn a bottle of French wine for his approval and in a VERY LOUD voice he said "Take back that GD French wine and bring us a good California wine." Everyone in the club could hear the outburst by "old Joe".

One finally comment to Larry_A. By the time of the "Two-Tier" gold pricing and Nixons closing of the gold window, the US Treasury had lost nearly half of its holdings of gold accummulated by the end of WWII

Whatever credit french people can give to colonel DE GAULLE for his independant stance on $ convertibility , don't forget that

1 ) he took power in 1958 by a virtual coup d' etat

2 ) he succeded by promising the french people that he would keep ALGERIA within FRANCE ( an impossibility as there would be soon as many ARAB member of parliament in france as french deputies )

3 ) he won the war there and then signed the "accords d'EVIAN" leaving 150000 Harkis for slaughtering in algeria ( harkis fought the civil war with french troops and got their balls cut and stuffed in their mouth )

4 ) he was a megalomaniac fraud

5 ) he had a pact during WWII with communist resistant and had all rightwing resistant groups given up to GESTAPO

You told us:
"..... Remember now, at the time of this meeting DeGaulle had already stated he wanted gold for dollars. OK. The waiter showed Mr. Hirshhorn a bottle
of"

Now I'm very excited. I'd like to know what bottle???

or do we need to guess?

Thanks.

Alberich the Dwarf

Can't exactly recall the year, but Callahan was acquired by little old
Coeur d'Alene Mines ( CDE ) . I always felt that was a shamefull end to a good old company.

Based on your story one easily concludes that Hirshhorn of Callahan Mng. was an arrogant idiot, typical of men of his position.

What a wonderfull CEO of a precious metals company dissaproving on what rightly DeGaulle was asking!

Joe Hirshhorn was certainly no idiot and I am not aware that he was arrogant. DeGaulle was correct in his position; however, I think Joe was upset with him in view of spending money buying the work of young French artists. And maybe he feels as I do about France in general - the US has a lot to answer for, but twice this century we pulled their chestnuts out of the fire and they still try stick-it to the US.

Now y' all, get this:

My 14 year old nephew is fighting with my brother every day on a very important ( I think issue ) . He wants my brother to open for him a brokerage account and to give him $5,000 to invest in the stock market.

He says he knows that the market will make him rich, no need for grades.

Go figure that one out..

wood pellets ( geeeeeeze ) ....Aurator:G'Day mate~~~~~~~

From Money Meltdown; Restoring Order to the Global Currency System
Judy Shelton 1994 pg. 76:

France, though, was especially resentful of the preeminent role of the United States
in the global monetary system and aggressively pushed for a multilateral approach.
Charles de Gaulle was convinced that the United States held a privileged position
that effectively exempted it from the rules of international exchange to which other
countries were forced to submit. He felt the United States took advantage of its
unique position and abused it by printing its own currency to cover external debts
rather than having to pay for balance of payments deficits in foreign currencies or
gold. Going back to the gold standard would be better, according to de Gaulle,
than continuing to be victimized by U.S. monetary excesses. Asked how to reform
the current system so that it would be truly international and not bear the stamp
of any one country in particular, de Gaulle made the statement at a press conference
in February 1965:

"Actually, it is difficult to envision in this regard any other criterion, any other
standard than gold. Yes, gold, which does not change in nature, which can be
made into either bars, ingots, or coins, which has no nationality, which is considered,
in all places and times, the immutable and fiduciary value par excellence. Furthermore,
despite all that it was possible to imagine, say, write or do in the midst of major
events, it is a fact that even today no currency has any value except by direct
or indirect relation to gold, real or supposed. Doubtless, no one would think
of dictating to any country how to manage its domestic affairs. But the supreme,
the golden rule...is the duty to balance, from one monetary area to another, by
effective inflows and outflows of gold, the balance of payments resulting from
their exchanges." 21

21-- quoted from Money of the Mind; A History of Credit and Lending in America
from the Civil War to Michael Milken; James Grant; 1992

So, once again, despite surging metropolitan real estate markets...despite soaring food prices owing to the El Nino weather effect...despite soarin commodity prices ( look at palladium and platinum, for example ) ...once again, Clinton, Greenspan, Rubin, the Republican Congress, et al reveal to America a flat non-inflationary core CPI.

Is this not the most disingenuous, deceitful, immoral government that has ever sat upon the Washington throne? As previously active Democrat, I am embarrassed by the "Republican leaders masquerading as Democrats..." They have completely forsaken any Democratic ideals and a Democrat agenda. Instead, the entire country is run for the benefit of the corporate oligarchy, the stock market, and the major shareholders while the average American is downsized and/or granted a token minimum wage job at MacDonalds. What a country! What a farce!

Ooops...sorry...I went on a little tangent and forgot that this is "F*'s Evaluation of the Gold Market Report"

Anyway, once again, extremely low volumes and price weakness in the gold market augur for a tremendous upside explosion in the event of any new positive arriving at gold's door. The G-7 meeting is just around the corner and, while America's leaders bask in the adoration of Wall Street, conversely, Asia's leaders are the targets of their respective citizens' scorn and hatred. Watch for major fireworks...the Asians are pissed off...they're mad as hell...and they're not going to take it anymore* ( *my thanks to "Network" for the paraphrase ) . The Europeans are feeling stronger with each passing day as we approach the Dawn of the EURO...and that means they will most likely not appreciate America's usual dictatorial ways...and will be more inclined to express their rebellion.

Most encouraging to gold today: palladium raced past the yellow metal, a classic indicator of impending industrial over-expansion ( and ergo, inflation ) . Although many would claim that Palladium is experiencing unusual strength solely from an uncertain supply perspective, it is impossible to ignore the exploding demand side of the equation as well. If the Clinton regime refuses to reveal the Truth about inflationary/stagflationary conditions in the country, then I feel certain the bond market will soon render its own honest assessment. Bonds seem to be reacting less to now meaningless CPI and PPI reports and more to unexpected fundamental developments.

In any case, the metals usually stay within a fairly steady historical relativistic norm to each other. When the deviation from the norm gets way out of whack, then usually there must be a re-balance of the entire situation. Either palladium must fall very dramatically...or gold must rise very dramatically...unless of course, you believe in Wall Street's New Paradigm aka The New Snake Oil Scam...and if you do, then the Kitco Forum is definitely not for you! Anyway, I am more inclined to believe that gold is experiencing the current market distortion and, if so, it augurs well for an amazing little leap in the old Au.

Just as Wall Street has never appeared so euphoric, conversely, the Kitco Barometer has never looked more dismal. Pessimism reigns and there is a tremendous decline in posters again. No surprise here. The simple reality is that many goldbugs simply never truly believed in the trend shift to a gold bull. After a 20 year gold bear and most recently, a vertical equities market, they are a beaten down crowd...and that is why I continue to assert, that if for any aberrational reason gold were to find itself under 300 again, then I firmly believe that there would be enormous psychological damage manifesting itself in major ( and irreversible ) goldbug capitulation. Gold would then make a speedy, tumultuous dive well below 200...and that would spell the end of gold as a relevant precious metal...the Gold World Council might just as well fold...and gold market analysts ( either technical or fundamental ) might as well hang up their hats ( I know I would ) since investor interest would drop to slightly less than zero...essentially, it would mean the end of a gold market meriting any noteworthy populist attention. Certainly, it would support the contention by Wall Street that, in fact, we are in a New Paradigm and gold is consigned to the rubbish heap of history.

IMHO, of course.

Thanks.

F*

ANOTHER did not leave because of LGB. After all, who of us can control any other one of us? The world is going to do what the world is going to do--how we respond to the world is what we can control. ANOTHER knows that. Verbal abuse on this site ( or anywhere, for that matter ) can be readily dismissed; all you have to do is consider the source.

If ANOTHER is gone, I will miss him. As a modest investor relatively new to the world of gold, I have thought much over his THOUGHTS! and have changed the way I view the gold market, and my investments, for that matter. I am thankful to have been a party to his THOUGHTS and wish him the best. Now we get to see what happens next!

By the way, the S&P 500/Gold ratio is now 3.623, 3.9% below its all-time high of 3.769, recorded on March 20th.

Fergie

You are right about the chestnuts.
However was US intervention in Europe completely philantropic ?
I guess a lot of GIs who didn't give a flying F* about France ( their mothers either ) lost their lives on NORMANDY beaches but through the MARSHALL economic plan for Europe , the US gained complete domination of the western world economy and a way to secure a playground to counter the commie's growing power.

...I figure maybe I should give him five grand to invest...surely, he can't do any worse than the so-called experts in a vertical equities market.

Thanks.

F*

I have a friend that says he has a SILVER K-Rand I have never heard or seen of one are they rare? If so what would be value?

Most interesting! Your nephew is jumping on the "get rich quick" bandwagon, too? My friend was just telling me what a problem she's having convincing her precocious third grader that now isn't the time to buy a stock for which he's clamoring. Both of my boys have been paper-trading stocks in school, as part of their curriculum ( 7th and 12th grades ) .

Your posts of 5:50 and 5:56 this morning were troubling. It's amazing how fast this government has gotten out of control. Seems fast to me, anyway, because I wasn't looking for so long, while conditions deteriorated rapidly. One wonders if there's any way to get back to the real law of the land.

Decent, about 1440ft here total, two-story and that
after adding on/enclosing. Been to Acadia Nat'l Park once
decades ago, hope Swan Is. is civilized with materials
available and not barging and boating stuff. Been in
on those island or far end of the roadless lake projects,
usually log. Boating in the chainsaws, tools, generators
while dragging a whole separate skiff just for the beer,
steaks and ice sucks. Too much, triple the time not
to mention expense, fun another calculation.

...however, I am compelled to head out the door and deal with some worldly affairs.

I will respond later.

Thanks.

F*

Can't disagreed with your senario re the outcome of the Marshall Plan and the securing of a strong position in Europe. However, I don't think the US instituted the Marshall Plan with that objective in mind. You tell me what other country was in position to help get the world going again?

and liars, individuals that completely obviate anything resembling the truth. The first casualty is their oath of office.

Today I was reading about the possibility of Ted Turner running for President. This would make Jane Fonda the First Lady. Yeeech!

coins,funny thing not even a platinum coin

How about some serious discussion of gold investing, say, Napoleon's march into Russia. Now, when I jumped into PM stocks, I started losing money ( as opposed to troops ) and getting hot under the collar ( as opposed to freezing ) . I had a goal of 40% appreciation over time ( as opposed to "taking Moscow" ) , and I have continued toward that goal in spite of solid evidence to indicate that I should turn around. When and if I turn around, I will not have many "troops" ( ducats ) with whom to return to Paris.

The moral is, if you want to take Moscow, start in the spring or something.

If you want to invest in PM stocks, buy the dip. Well, I did buy the dip, but the dip became a ravine. Now, things have turned a little bit, but none of us knows the future. Personally, I believe that Y2K has got to cause serious dislocation. And, I believe that in general the dislocation will be favorable to gold, although not necessarily in the short term immediately following the appearance of Y2K troubles.

I feel like gold is about to go off the cliff - maybe all the way down to 200. But I hope that it is about to catch a puff - maybe all the way to 450. Now, I am going to retire in 20 years. So I really don't care what happens between now and then, other than to get really depressed over bad news. So what kind of fool puts his money in PM stocks expecting a better return over 20 years than conventional equities? When 40% of his troops are dead and he is still a long way from Moscow?

Le petit general, evil man that he was, and me, middle-aged ex-hippie, perhaps, in my own way, just as evil and misguided.

But, I sure enjoy this site.

Retired Soldier, I have a silver K-Rand too. It is not a one oz coin though. --AG

thanks as I said I haven't seen his coin yet.

Do you think it is possible an operator produced and unauthorized coin for friends/collectors?

NightWriter: http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-3908921

As usual, your prospective is refreshing to read. I noticed the decline in the number of postings and the "chat" off subject nature of what is being put up. I do think it is a key reverse indicator. With INTEL out with a better picture of itself - buy INTEL - looks like tomorrow will be another equity market.

Frankly, while I follow the thread that the metals are fundlementally set for a move, the move is just not occuring. I broke even today because of a position in SWC/palladium. These thrid graders would do better than I , I occasionally think, if they threw dart at a tradition equity board. Given the weak closes in metal stocks and in gold and silver the only positive was that volumns were light on a negative news day - what inflation is zero!!!!!!!! WHO NEEDs GOLD

a suggestion: recruit all the soldiers from this site ( including old and retired ones ) and have another assault to Moscow. Worth trying...

I am too old to fat and too sick to assualt anywhere sorry

John Disney__A ( Offering WORK ) : Why in 'e hell didn't you post that "offering to the Gods" business earlier?? If you had, I just know fer sure that I would not have cleared my entire position in SWC. ...... Now look what it's doing. Moving smartly away from those of us who were ( momentarily ) content with a decent - as opposed to an obscene - profit.

The larger question now is: Who or what must be sacrificed in order to reestablish a position?

Keep the troops well fed by commenting often on Kitco, Nightwriter. Enjoyed your analogy - me thinks there are many of us like you, hoping for a spectacular move in the metals to get us to Moscow.

Think we may have a little stormy weather tommorrow and maybe the next day, but
as Farel points out any news to hit these metal markets from the positive side will spark a strong rally. And a take out of the 90 area XAU will start bringing in the trend followers in mass.

Spring for the metals begins April 15th

I too am done with assaults and will cheerfully wave my flag as I watch on the TV young studs taking their turn.

I say there is nothing wrong with France that couldn't be solved by 100 years of German dominaton and may she get it next time around!

there was a lot counterfeiting going on a few years ago

Zero Inflation occurs when the price of an automobile doubles in 5 years, when a college education for your children triples in l2 years and when the price of a new home goes up l2 % per year.

These situations have occurred in the SE USA and my math still can not come up with ZERO inflation.

Maybe someone in the white house could explain it to me.

France was in terminal death throes when DeGaulle took over, by popular acclaim.

He was the only one that could save the nation considering the

conditions at that time. As a benevolent dictator he did a fine job and had no personal ambitions, he did not want the job but could not turn it down and see his beloved country torn to shreds. He was old and tired from running the Free French resistance and was loved by all the french both in France and Algeria ( I was there ) . When he saw the destruction of values by the US with its paper policies he asked for gold ( and rightly so ) . That forced Nixon to close the gold window.

PS. I am not french just an American eye witness, in the service of his country, doing his duty at the time.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHOOOOOWEEE!

Then sell me yours! Then sell me yours!

Gold is cheap. The Dow is high. The pendulum swings from sell to buy.

GOLD! GOLD! GOLD! GOLD!

I DON'T CARE...I'M BUYING MORE!

DOW! DOW! DOW! DOW!

I DON'T POKE THAT SLEAZY WHORE!

Right on the verge of a megalosaurian devouring of one pox-infested industrial age by one gleaming information epoch -- a time when nothin's gonna mean squat because it'll all be VIRTUAL . . . except wealth. Except money. Gold.

Going down the tubes you say, Mr. F*?!

You're wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong!

I DON'T CARE...I'M BUYING MORE!

I DON'T CARE...I'M BUYING MORE!

I DON'T CARE...I'M BUYING MORE!

Have a nice day.

Respectfully, jonesy

allen, a.goose, aph, bob m, bufford, butler, cc, d.a., da kine, dej, delphi, donald_a, edsel, golddkm, highrise, hughes, james, jims, lenaxe, lgb, midas, miro, myrmidon, nick, neophyte, oldgold, pete, preacher, realistic, ry, rjr, sharefin, selby, silverbaron, snowball, sojourn, spock, stewart, studio.r, trinovant, winston. . .

But here is a really nice link for an otherwise dull day. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=swc&d=t

Soul-mates, eh? Happy Birthday! Thank you for the kind wishes. GO GOLDBUGS!

If you are following the short gold and silver trades ( 4/10 17:22 ) you are currently short June gold at 311.5 or better and short May silver at 6.40. You would have had to have your order in Sunday's night session to get the 6.40 price; I wasn't, I'm short gold from 312. The metals are following the script; being taken down by a combination of cycles lows coming due and the recent weakness in the XAU. Spot Gold traced out a 3 wave counter trend rally on the weekly charts into long term upper channel resistance and is now failing. ( See chart 4/10 17:22 ) A number of gaps on the hourly, daily and weekly charts remain open down to the 295 - 290 area. This is the target area for a possible bottom. Silver looks weak and could drop though 6.00 down to 5.85. What ever the lows end up to be they should be in place by the end of April or early May.

It is my honor to receive your salutations....you take the top out of my "esteemometer" BOOM! Gosh, I feel good for my age. Muchas Garcias!

Mr Goldwater, I think that the basket of items that the government uses to index inflation is heavily weighted at present with the sort of goods and services that those of the Welfare and Consumer classes commonly purchase. IMHO this is due to the fact that our government indexes its givaway program payments to these and the desire now is to reassure the lambs before they are taken to the shearing shed.

You ARE on my list - and BTW, Solomon Smith Barney has a price target for this puppy ( SWC ) of $50. ohmy!

DOW is up - bullish for Gold
Gold is down - bullish for Gold
Nice weather today - bullish for Gold
A cat crossed the street - bullish for Gold
No, I cant make it like F*

Well I hope that you bought lots of it back when we were talking about it this winter! Maybe you can build a bigger castle or barony or whatever it is that barons live in nowadays. ;^ )

US Gov't Office reports 250% inflation in 10 years !!! Stick that in your CPI, and light it up. OHHH, but don't inhale, it'll go away !!
I was channel surfing the other night, and happened onto C-SPAN. A Woman, whom was the Director of Librarians in Washington DC, was giving a plea for donations and support. During her testimony, She cited raising cost of 250%, over the last ten-year period ending 6-30-97.

She asked; "How can we be expected to maintain our quality of resources when we are fighting for a budget increase of 8%/yr, and these materials have increased 250%/10yrs ?"

Now we know where to send the CPI indexing crew. Off to sleep-e-time land, with a good book...


Gold for the good guysGMJ

"Ya'll keep those cards and letters comin'"...You guys are nuts! Lini's still workin' on the puzzle...I gave up. GOLD BOOMERS!

Re: previous post wed apr 1 18:46.

Now waiting for 60 cent drop from recent London fix high 673 - 60 = 613.

Expect decent drop within next week.

Will increase holding close to 613.

Regards,

Scarface

APH: Thank you for letting us know. We have been getting incessantly bullish gold comments recently, and it is nice to hear from someone who is equally at home up or down. I trade ( invest ) longer term than you, but I am learning about the shorter term by observing.

By the way, I think the US markets are likely to avoid a crash up to y2k, partially because the markets have not blown off yet like 1929. Comments? My guess is that there still is alot of 'flight to safety' left from other parts of the world -- and that kind of mania is likely to ignore less than stellar earnings reports. Personally I would like to avoid a crash, if at all possible.

All: Believe it or not, not all my software is running yet on the upgrade to windows 95 and Netscape communicator 4.0x. I have lost my copy of my netsape version 2.01 e-mail messages -- file was several megabytes. Does anyone know the extension names of the 'in' and 'out' e-mail messages so that I can search my backup tapes?

Platinum and palladium are roaring. Global Platinum + Gold is a development stage company which has illustrated its ability to extract PGMs from the desert sands. To my knowledge it is the only company which has accomplished this other than Stillwater. It is fast approaching production status. The web site is www.gpgi.com.

SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH, APRIL 13, 1998

Mr. Richard Jensen CEO of Global Platinum + Gold Inc ( OTC:BB, GPGI ) announced today that the company has received notification from two refiners regarding the values of platinum, palladium, rhodium and gold which were refined from Globals shipments of anode sludge.

From AuRIC Metallurgical Laboratories , Salt Lake City,
Values from 35 pounds of sludge shipped in February:

Platinum: 5.98 troy ounces @ $411/oz = $2,458
Palladium: 7.92    $274/oz = $2,170
Rhodium: 5.54    $575/oz = $3,186
Gold: 4.29    $309/oz = $1326

These total $9,140 from 35 pounds of sludge = $261 per lb
------------
From a presently unnamed refiner in the United States
Values from 10 pounds of sludge shipped in March:

Platinum: 2.74 troy ounces @ $411/oz = $1,126
Palladium: 2.84    $274/oz = $ 778
Rhodium: 1.96    $575/oz = $1,128
Gold: 2.92    $309/oz = $ 903

Total total $3,935 from 10 pounds of anode sludge = $393 per lb

Total from both sources = $13,075

*= London metals prices fix Monday 4/6/98

Global management is please to report these results which add confirmation to Globals ability to extract precious metals from the desert sands. The values from both AuRIC and the unnamed refiner, while gratifying, were based on anode sludge of a preliminary nature. The company continues to work on the improvement of its product. as can be seen, an improvement of $132 per pound has been accomplished in the thirty day period between early February and early March.

Platinum and palladium are roaring. Global Platinum + Gold is a development stage company which has illustrated its ability to extract PGMs from the desert sands. To my knowledge it is the only company which has accomplished this other than Stillwater. It is fast approaching production status. The web site is www.gpgi.com.

SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH, APRIL 13, 1998

Mr. Richard Jensen CEO of Global Platinum + Gold Inc ( OTC:BB, GPGI ) announced today that the company has received notification from two refiners regarding the values of platinum, palladium, rhodium and gold which were refined from Globals shipments of anode sludge.

From AuRIC Metallurgical Laboratories , Salt Lake City,
Values from 35 pounds of sludge shipped in February:

Platinum: 5.98 troy ounces @ $411/oz = $2,458
Palladium: 7.92    $274/oz = $2,170
Rhodium: 5.54    $575/oz = $3,186
Gold: 4.29    $309/oz = $1326

These total $9,140 from 35 pounds of sludge = $261 per lb
------------
From a presently unnamed refiner in the United States
Values from 10 pounds of sludge shipped in March:

Platinum: 2.74 troy ounces @ $411/oz = $1,126
Palladium: 2.84    $274/oz = $ 778
Rhodium: 1.96    $575/oz = $1,128
Gold: 2.92    $309/oz = $ 903

Total total $3,935 from 10 pounds of anode sludge = $393 per lb

Total from both sources = $13,075

*= London metals prices fix Monday 4/6/98

Global management is please to report these results which add confirmation to Globals ability to extract precious metals from the desert sands. The values from both AuRIC and the unnamed refiner, while gratifying, were based on anode sludge of a preliminary nature. The company continues to work on the improvement of its product. as can be seen, an improvement of $132 per pound has been accomplished in the thirty day period between early February and early March.

Even though I made the mistake of gender in the quelle ( sic ) chaud lapin ( should read: quel chaud lapin ) an experienced translator such as myself would translate the phrase into What a Horny B*stard instead of Which Rabbit Warm, as did the computer program.

I guess though if you knew they were talking about Klinton, you could put 2 and 2 together and get the idea that "warm" is closer to "heat" as a rabbit in heat. Well anyway you get the picture.

Warm Rabbits to ye

It is doubtful that GPGI will ever produce ANYTHING but rah-rah press reports and minute amounts of PGM.

Everyone would be wise to steer one million miles clear of this ... "company"

Spuds

For one who allegedly supports freedom and liberty you continually defend slavery. Why is that? Is it only for us white guys? As far as I'm concerned, slaveowners deserve the same fate as communists, socialists, and fascists. Death. Perhaps you should reread the Constitution again. I believe there's something in there about all men being created equal. Oh, by the way, Sherman was far too lenient I believe. The path of destruction he burned was only 60 miles wide. Fortunately modern technology has improved on that capability. On a less caustic note, I do appreciate your posts about the current situation. Lincoln bashing is just a little too much to take on April 14th. I think Abe would be just as appalled as you are at the current Federal government growing exponentially year by year on the backs of the taxpayers. Also, the greenback did not continue interrupted up to this day. I don't know when we returned to a metal standard but I've got some 90% silver peace dollars and 90% Saints that prove it. The current mess is due to the Federal Reserve system and FDR, not Lincoln. On that note, FREEDOM!

In the previous post I used quote marks which came out as the number 3. For clarities sake here are the correct numbers.

From AuRIC Metallurgical Laboratories , Salt Lake City,

Values from 35 pounds of sludge shipped in February:

Platinum: 5.98 troy ounces @ $411/oz = $2,458

Palladium: 7.92 troy ounces @ $274/oz = $2,170

Rhodium: 5.54 troy ounces @ $575/oz = $3,186

Gold: 4.29 troy ounces @ $309/oz = $1326

These total $9,140 from 35 pounds of sludge = $261 per lb

------------

From a presently unnamed refiner in the United States

Values from 10 pounds of sludge shipped in March:

Platinum: 2.74 troy ounces @ $411/oz = $1,126

Palladium: 2.84 troy ounces @ $274/oz = $ 778

Rhodium: 1.96 troy ounces @ $575/oz = $1,128

Gold: 2.92 troy ounces @ $309/oz = $ 903

Total total $3,935 from 10 pounds of anode sludge = $393 per lb

Total from both sources = $13,075

*= London metals prices fix Monday 4/6/98

What happened to the golden bull? He is shriveling like a raisin in the sun. The XAU is dropping like a stone. I thought it was HERE! I thought it was NOW! I thought it was IN! Or something to that effect.
Crazy Bill

And I suggest you read the Declaration of Independance. You can replace "King and Great Britan" with "Federal Government".

signed,
Spud-o, tired of the typical liberal approach to anyone who questions "their divine right to caring, feeling" - call'em a racist!

ps - You New Englanders are going to have your hands full when your bloated, corrupt Welfare state cities go up in riot & flames. Sherman's march to the Sea! Ha! At least Sherman's troop had the decency not to rape and murder.

Doubtless you'll be happy for the Federal Troops to turn guns on them and shoot to save your sorry liberal hide.

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for April 14
-- TOTALS
Gold 634,304 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 88,988,482 + 879,790 troy ounces
Copper 112,401 - 279 short tons

GPGI has "been" discovering PGM for the last ten years...

GPGI has "been" on the verge of wondermous PGM production for ever...

GPGI has been ver'y ver'y good to a select handful of stock manipulators.

Avoid this dog like a week-old dead catfish.

You want to invest in PGMs, invest in a QUALITY, KNOWN PRODUCER like Stillwater.

Spuds

You might try the extention .snm for any e-mail messages which you saved within a folder.

FYI - The US Constitution does not mention anything about men being equal. I believe that you are referring to the Declaration of Independence ( see following or view my posts yesterday! ) Give these a good read - don't read it too much, you might get frustrated with things!

http://www.nara.gov/exhall/charters/constitution/constitution.html
http://www.nara.gov/exhall/charters/declaration/declaration.html

-c

http://www.kitco.com/comments/advertize/index.html

Dear Spud

If Global can produce the values I reported on small quantities of their ore why cant they gear up to huge quantities? Their reserves are for all practical purposes infinite. Read up on the company I suggest. Why Stillwater? Has it ever turned a profit? Not to my knowledge.

Best regards, Ed

223 said perfectly: please go flog this ... "company" on the Kitco advertisment board.

Spud, holding nose even tigher

To bad I did not get it earlier when I send greetings to kitcat.
2 on the same day?
Both of you get lost now and get going--celebrate!

S.

There is a problem these days with the schools teaching "social Studies" instead of "History" people tend to ge things mixed up. Go Gold

http://members.aol.com/Kevcornett/Documents/virgdclr.txt

Pete, I don't know you as a person. All I understand about you is based on your posts in cyberspace. Can I, therefore, judge you properly? I doubt it. Words on a screen are so often lacking in the ability to convey a persons true meaning. No voice inflection, no wry smile, no sharp tone, etc., etc. Unless one is a polished writer it is difficult to convey ones thoughts without seeming to be, at times, confrontational. I have done this here with vronsky. I e-mailed to him my sorrow for such action. Few realize the need for tactfulness in the written word except when it is directed towards them.
LGB is not tactful in his writing. Nor can his tone or facial expressions be discerned. He is, to say the least, blunt. I agree with some of his thoughts and disagree with some of them. I would say some of LGB's statements here to F* are no less antagonistic than those made to ANOTHER. I don't see farfel leaving in a huff. Why should ANOTHER?
Perhaps more to the point, who really cares what someone you don't know posts if, in fact, you have belief in your convictions? I know I don't. Why should someone such as ANOTHER, who professes to have "inside" information, Give a hoot? He should not.
All this said, you know I don't buy into the oil for gold theory. But who am I to think I can foretell the future? Time tells all. A year from now we all will know the validity of the THOUGHTS of ANOTHER. Patience, my son, patience-as my mother used to say.
ANOTHER will post again if he is not a prankster. Just as I would post again if confronted with statements such as those of LGB. You suggest ANOTHER has feelings that have been hurt. Comes now, is one hurt by written words of one you do not know? Not I. Nor anyone with any true sense of who they really are.
If ANOTHER posts no more it is because his words were false not because of anything said here. Could it be that gold will not reach the $320-$360 level and this was just a convenient escape for ANOTHER? You think long and hard on this! No offense intended. The point ,however, is made by the directness of this statement.
On another note, if gold goes down $3 more I will buy more contracts and more gold mining shares. It is amazing to me how a $3 drop in gold can be so devastating to so many people who profess to be goldbugs. If I lose, I lose. At least I play the game.
One last THOUGHT-Smile, enjoy life, give someone you love a hug and last of all be HAPPY. Nobody will give a damn 1000 years from now about my life, your life or that of anyone alive today..
Tom

For All: Be aware that when you sign your tax return you waive your right
to self incrimination guaranteed you by the CONSTITUTION! I wish people
would wake up before its too late and take this GOV. Back! Where do I
sign up?


not speaking for my employer...

TED and Socialists is good guys!

Just got up and had a look at the prices. Am going to get my palladium proof coins out and admire them!!

I confess I am ANOTHER. Gold will rise to 360 soon as the oil sheiks aint gonna put up with this dollar stuff much longer. The Japs also want their own currency backed by gold. Buck look out! Gone to have a brewski.

civilzation"

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980415/world/world1.html

Farfel, I apolgize to you. I just read your 16:42 message. I had no idea you so fully appreciated the gravity of the situation. If gold fails here it is is a straight line down to 140 and the dustheap of history. My father once told me that after the third generation become adults anything is possible because the collective memory of an event is erased. Very few people alive today can remember the great depression so therefore it can never happen again. No one alive today can remember the fact that armys were paid with gold shipments so therefore paper is the standard and gold is irrelevent. The farther we go in history away from the past the less important gold becomes. The stock market can never go down, gold can never go up and trees grow to the sky. Still, in our lifetime, I am afraid gold is an ancient relic that has no place in the modern day world. The day will come when all commerce in the world will be run by a computer, a man, and a dog. The computer will run the commerce, the dog will guard the computer to see that the man does not touch it and the man will be there only to feed the dog.
Crazy Bill

specifically excludes paupers, vagabonds and fugitives from justice from the citizenry. ( Lest someone mistake it for the Constitution of the Confederate States of America the Articles of Confederation were for the USA, not CSA! ) http://libertyonline.hypermall.com/ArtConfed.html

As always you are our most reliable predictor. Do you have any thoughts on if and when the Dow will stumble. I have followed Martin for years and although he does not forecast well short term he has been very good on the long term. His latest information indicates a major temporary corretion in the order of 20-40% by July 20th./98. I feel that if anyone has a handle on this it will be you. That is one ride I would like to be on. Looking forward to your input.THANKS!

man who has none"

man who has none"

Can anyone explain the drop in the price of PDLCF despite the huge surge in the price of Palladium? Is this a good buy?

Don't forget, they recently started adjusting CPI for new factors. For example a pair of Boxer shorts might cost $20 at bloomingdales, but most people don't buy their underwear at Bloomingdales, they buy them at Kmart at 3 for $7.99. So for this component they might lower this CPI component by 87%.

But wait, today Boxer shorts are improved. They are of a coton/polyester blend. They last longer and they don't get as wrinkled. So there might be a quality improvement of let's say 20%. This would lower the price of underpants a further 9%. Wow!!!!!!! Now I know where all this deflation is coming from.

I suppose those guys in Washington are smart though, that's why they get paid so much. You see if they said CPI came in at -96% and in turn Real GDP was up 100%, people might get suspicious. So maybe this month they'll adjust underpants, next month ice cream, next month something else. That way it will just be mild deflation, and everyone's happy.

Is PDG a good buy instead of SWC which has enjoyed such a tremendous rise in price?

I will greatly appreciate anyone's thoughts/comments.

Thank you.

Your analysis is almost certainly correct UNLESS we are in wave 4 of 1 of three off the January floor. That internal structure is still a logical possibility, as are the targets I posted last eve. But gold would need to explode up here and now to validate it. If not I agree we revisit $290-280.

farfel; Sounds like you are ready to throw in the towel if we go under $300 again. Come on boy! Even RJ projects no lower than $280 and APH $290. Your capitulation would be a truly classic contrarian buy signsl.

I still view this a correction prior to another big move up. As I posted a few days ago, a forecaster I respect called for the XAU to drop to the 80 area after peaking at 90. But then up, up, and away!

Don't own any ( but my lovely wife owns a couple hundred shares ) , bought in the $16-18 area. Not as good as beanie babies, but better'n a sharp stick in the eye! Go Pt ( gotta catch that Pd ) !! ... Back to the terlet repair ( ain't life grand? ) bbl ( ;^ ) )

What a beautiful post to Pete.
I agree with all but the last sentence!
We all would be lost indeed, if your last sentence could be,
correct. Here I am dealing of course with my convictions.

S.

Clone-Thanks, I feel kinda stupid about making that mistake! Dec. of Independence second only to "Common Sense" by Thomas Payne. It changed the way the colonists viewed themselves and the world.
Spudmaster- I'm tired of the same old "anyone who disagrees with me is a liberal" bs. Perhaps in your alternate universe the liberals are against communists, fascists, but here in reality they're generally for them. Sorry about that Ted and ROR, but socialism tends to toward totalitarianism just like communism and fascism, it's just slower and more subtle. Aiding the destitute is not the proper function of government because the "giving" is mandatory. Inevitably, the social problems get worse, not better, as more and more resources are consumed in fighting the problems. Then more people need help resulting in higher taxes, resulting in more people needing help, etc. etc. Churches and private charities provide a much better means to assist. You give as much as you see fit and are under no obligation to give anything at all. Competing for scarcer resources and even with each other, such organizations become vastly more efficient and generally avoid the waste and fraud that plague governmental programs. It's not wrong to help others voluntarily. It IS wrong to require by law that one helps.

Tom, I found your thoughts to be very logical and
reasonable. Both you and me think in the same direction.
By the way, do you prefer vodka to any other "hard" drink
and do you like to shoot politically incorrect guns?
If yes, we are brothers, period.

patience is going to be the name of the goldbug game for at least a while.we are at a new juncture here with several things converging at once.1]the euro 2]japan 3]equity mania[the stock market only goes up didn't you know,just ask someone in your office.]4]record gold demand and 5][this will be the catalyst for the explosion]Y2K. reason 5 is why it's going to take a while for POG to explode. awareness of the enormity of the y2k problem hasn't even begun to sink in to mainstream consciousness yet.the media don't bother because as of yet it won't sell papers.[people only want to read about bad things happening to other people.they dont want to hear about how it's going to affect themselves.]now,this is just my opinion but i believe that y2k will be the bull slayer.problems from y2k probably won't start showing up in earnest until early to mid 99. combine that with the euro competing for world reserve currency status,and things will get even more interesting.personally i under estimated the resilliance of the stock quite a bit but now i think it's going to keep on going until the flock realizes next year that they're like wile coyote who has run off a cliff anf just kept on going....and then he looks down.....and its to late!so be patient there is no historic precedent here.it's all coming together,be prepared,sit back and watch the insanity unfold

Anyone got a finger on why silver's sliding? Just fall out from the Buffett rumors? --AG

DeGaulle shortly after taking power in 1945 nationalised all major industries: Banks, electricity, telephone, automobiles.

Today, ever since 1945, a full 1% of the revenue of the huge state owned electric monopoly has been given to the Communist Party, a law created by de Gaulle to curry favor with his communist buddies in parliament.

Utility bills in France are horrendous, and to add insult to injury a 21% Value Added Tax is tagged on. Many people can't afford a telephone, though the telephone Co. makes Billions a year and owns all sorts of snazzy apartments and buildings. Nationalise the industries because they belong to the people, mon cul!

State owned Crdit Lyonnais has received something like FF130 Billion in state aid in the past few years to keep it from collapsing ( that's around 21 Billion USD.

To say that de Gaulle was put into power by adoring French is a little nave.

Open-Loop, clone, All

In my vague and shallow understanding, if a Person ( freeman ) , included the phrase "All rights reserved, without prejudice." in the miniscule area on the 1040 form directly above their signature, this would preclude automatically conferring jurisdiction to the IRS and preserve all rights without prejudice. However, one would need to sign all government documents in this fashion to avoid the "waiver" trap.
This reservation of rights endorsement has saved my butt several times in the commercial world. The most notable was "A close encounter of the third kind" with a car dealership. After the purchase of a used BMW ( knowingly problematic to the dealer ) , the Judge decided that my use of the UCC 1-207 styled endorsement "All rights reserved", superceded the boilerplate of the sales contract. I won the suit based on the endorsement.
This UCC tool needs to come out of the closet. All, IMVHO.

Gold for the good guysGMJ

Perhaps silver slid because the COMEX silver inventories have been rising, the technical factors ( chart/trend analysis ) indicate a possible drop in price, brother gold hasn't been rising, hedge fund movement, and some money is bound to be following the PGMs rapid increase. Buffet sale rumor is stale bread now so the rope-a-dope ain't gonna work... It looks like a good short-term buying opportunity to moi if it drops to 6.10, and I'm still holding a few thousand oz.

I would say that "the powers that be" saw all the metals rising last week, especially gold, and decided to dig into the rumour mill. Last week some guy ( analyst ) said he thought that Buffett may have sold off 30% of his Silver position. The good or bad thing about Buffett rumours is that we usually don't find out about them until the annual report comes out in March.

All is not lost! Just read OldGold's recent post. The RJ APH consensus is soemwhere between 280-290 as the abolute minimum. And -- we know that the European CB's have sworn off their temporary insanity and refuse to sell any more gold.

Prsonally, I hold the fundamentals in greater esteem than the technicals and await the next buying opportunity. The only wild card I see is a Japan implosion -- unlikely, but very bearish for gold. Uncertainty without an outright implosion would probably be bullish.

I repeat my plea for assistance from a mind of your brilliance! Do you know how to reach Antony C. Sutton, or more specifically how to find out what mysterious secret debt recall weapon the BIS has over the USA? If we figure out what Sutton was talking about in his book 'The Gold War', I think we will be much better able to predict the actions of the EMU/Euro situation, and the Gold/dollar situation.

Oris: Thanks for the advice the other day. I found a NIB Polictically Incorrect Bulgarian for $450.



Another: First there was Big Trader then you came along. I hope this isn't some form of evolution because I was starting to like you. Im afraid I might not be able to handle your successor because its just to much work for my simple mind. Share your THOUGHTS for us that will hear.



RJ: KITCO needs your input that only you can give. You work for the largest bullion dealer in North America ( Monex ) and you trade in REAL GOLD ( not paper ) daily. Only you can give us the insight into the real world of PMs trading. Please reconsider, you are missed by many.



ALL: I am a certified Kitcoholic and Goldbug. I stumbled onto this forum 8 months ago and it has profoundly changed my life forever. Thank you for keeping Kitco interesting and informative. YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE!

Since this is a public forum I will only respond in part as the other part goes without question. Vodka is no longer a part of my life for I found it to cause great joy and sorrow. You know in the morning when you look in the mirror and remember the events of the day past and CRINGE-I did so once to often. I am now only a beer drinker, with a tapper in the house, simply for the sake of my family and myself. I think that translates to I get real drunk real fast on vodka. Fun but hazadous. Tom

"But the supreme, the golden rule...is the duty to balance, from one monetary area to another, by effective inflows and outflows of gold, the balance of payments resulting from their exchanges." De Gaulle

The golden rule of like for like is the Law of Liberty. A large amount of hostility was expressed today toward DeGaulle for his asking for gold redemption of US dollars. As if De Gaulle had no right to ask for like for like. This is why there is a War on Gold. To deny a just right.

The modern, ideologically indoctrinated actor is persuaded that since he is acting on superior political beliefs for a superior political system, his actions are above ordinary moral judgement. His prototype is the abolitionist. His evolved form is the prohibitionist. Madeleine Albright, you might say.

I have not, and do not, defend slavery on principle. But, consider the consequences of abolitionism, if you will. The African, never free, but subject to a King in his homeland, was put into slavery in Africa. He was sold in Africa, transported to the United States, and sold again. Now, then, the federal government proclaims the slave emancipated and by force declares the slave out of bondage on this continent. Think about it. The slave has not been purchased and set free. The people who paid for the slave's cost, transport, shelter, food, clothing, and care have been forced into bankruptcy by the leniency of Sherman and his ilk. Nothing honest has been done. What has happened is no different than if, in Africa, the slave had been taken by force from his first or second captor by another raiding party. Whose property is the slave now ? The debt is still unpaid. He is still somebody's. In fact, he is the legal creature, the subject, of the Congress of the United States, his latest captor.

Now, the fifth Article of Amendment to the Constitution declared that no property shall be taken for public purpose without just compensation. Why did not Lincoln proclaim an Emancipation Compensation ? Well, it shall be said, it is wrong to have property rights in a man, regardless of legal agreement. Therefore, when these wrongful claims to property are cancelled, no compensation is due. And so, on this precedent, it is become with all property rights today. Any of them are subject to seizure by a prohibitionist in a legislature. Name one that is secure.

When your gold is seized or your cash is seized or your land is seized or your car is seized or your child is seized or your gun is seized, if you resist, expect Shermanesque leniency. You, at least as its advocate, deserve it.

I suppose if I object to the rape of women by Sherman's soldiers ( and it happened ) , I shall be accused of defending celibacy. I suppose if I object to the women's christian temperance union breaking bottles in saloons, I shall be accused of defending alcoholism. I suppose if I object to confiscation, I shall be accused of defending greed. I suppose if I object to murder, I shall be accused of defending selfish self-preservation. So, as I object to taking property without just compensation, I must be a defender of slavery.

Goldbugs are made for squashing. Who will grieve the extermination of an insect ? Show the goldbugs no mercy, no leniency. Proclaim gold emancipated from the greedy goldbug's rapacious grasp. He is no better than a slaveholder. Or a tobacconist. Or a saloonist. Or pornographist. Or any other dealer in prohibited property.

continues ... another 1% rise today.

But, can anyone tell me why? What was so newsworthy or spectacular to affect the DOW this much today? Merger news? Afraid that's already old news. Any other news I'm missing about today?

I believe the real reason = greed and current market blindness ( mania ) .

Hold on, fellow metal heads, this plane will continue to accelerate until terminal velocity is reached. ( the ground isn't far beyond that point )

More important question - Anyone have any thoughts on how AG is going to land this ( DOW ) plane prior to reaching said velocity? I'm doubting a belly landing in a pasture is possible at this point ( without spooking the herd ) .

BTW, because of such doubts, I am buying more. ISO

One of the most frustrating aspects of having PM's and PM stocks is that EVERY SINGLE TIME we get a rally and get hope, the shorts sock it to us again, and again, and again, and again, and ( ad naseum ) . What will it take for PM's to rise enough to give those stinking shorts a dose of what they have been giving us these long weary months? I'm normally not a vengeful person; but if some of the shorts get financially wiped out when the PM's finally skyrocket, it's about time for the tide to turn. As a former friend used to say, "The sun doesn't shine on the same dog forever; because either the dog moves, or the sun moves."

Excellent, thoughtful post. You're right about ANOTHER: If he was looking for a way out, LGB's comments made for as good a reason as any. My leaning is that he, ANOTHER, will be back -- that is, my hope is that he's for real. If he stays away, especially for such a trivial reason as a biting ear, then, well . . . sayonara, amigo. Have a guten tag. Meantime . . .

I DON'T CARE...I'M BUYING MORE!

Respectfully, the village gold idiot, jonesy

is not right out of the communist manifesto I don't know ....its a daily pile up of evidence...as Rupert Murdoc said the new face of socialism in America is the power to regulate...ownership with out the hassel.....yep you own it you run it but I take the profit....what a deal,tobacco today who's next ......besides Clinton and his commie buddys the lawyers will give him a big share of the pie....how much you say is it worth to Clinton try this one thousand million dollars....streching the truth I don't think so....lawyers take home if this deal goes through ninty thousand million dollars....want to see something scary ...the Nazi's did the same thing he's trying to do check out what they did...........on the left bar go to Hall of Shame scroll down a few storys......conspiracy, no just the facts http://www.junkscience.com

is not right out of the communist manifesto I don't know ....its a daily pile up of evidence...as Rupert Murdoc said the new face of socialism in America is the power to regulate...ownership with out the hassel.....yep you own it you run it but I take the profit....what a deal,tobacco today who's next ......besides Clinton and his commie buddys the lawyers will give him a big share of the pie....how much you say is it worth to Clinton try this one thousand million dollars....streching the truth I don't think so....lawyers take home if this deal goes through ninty thousand million dollars....want to see something scary ...the Nazi's did the same thing he's trying to do check out what they did...........on the left bar go to Hall of Shame scroll down a few storys......conspiracy, no just the facts http://www.junkscience.com

The last sentance was probably ill phrased. I meant to convey that future generations will not be concerned with our day to day foibles and concerns which seem to preoccupy our lives and prevent us from enjoying life and showing affection to those we love. Tom

.

The PEI homepage has an update dated 4/14 on silver and gold ( go to the homepage and click on "metals" ) . Its bearish on silver ( says the only commodity in short supply is the warehouses to hold the stuff ) and bullish on gold ( it took a lickin and kept on tickin ) . Bull market in gold should be underway by this summer. Armstrong thinks the gold/silver ration has seen its lows and will go higher from here.

drip...drip...drip...drip...drip

Two days of derisory volume and Gold ends up where it left off before Easter. One big difference though, it has turned right at the top of the post February 1996 downchannel.

It is truly amazing what this small downturn in Gold has done on Kitco. I have lost count of the posts I have seen with variations on the theme: "So much for the Gold bull"

They ain't saying that in OZ - Eh Nick? The $A Gold price has taken off on the P&F chart. As I said in my weekend Gold $A/$US comparison, Gold has now broken out of its bear market channels in every major currency except one, the $US itself. I have updated the $A/$US comparison page to take in today's action.

The $US 1 x 3 P&F chart looks perfectly OK to me on any spot future Gold close of $295 or higher, although it is quite true that any break from here back below the $US 300 level would scare a lot of Gold Bulls. What we now know for certain is that $US 310 on the spot future close is THE resistance point.

The other point to ponder is that it would be in NONE of the participants' interests for Gold to take off in the middle of their Washington deliberations over the future of the world's "Financial Architecture".

...and the wife's got dinner prepared already.

So, just a few encouraging words to ponder with regard to impending EURO announcements and the percentage of gold reserves supporting the new currency....

IF IT'S JUST FIVE, GOLD'S GOING HIGH!
IF IT'S JUST TEN, GOLD'S YOUR FRIEND!
IF IT'S ANYTHING MORE, WATCH GOLD ROAR!

Now, off I go to eat some beets.

Thanks.

F*

Thanks for another valuable bookmark! That article on Nazis and tobacco is stunning. Yet one more program by this administration picked up from the Nazis. Then there's that gun legislation, which was also a rip-off of the Nazi's earlier work. ( Sorry, I don't have the URL, do you? ) It's looking very much like our national socialism and theirs are blood brothers.

BTW, don't hear much outcry about the 100,000 teachers who will be funded by the Fed in Clinton's new proposal. If the Fed pays, will they be federal employees, answerable to the Fed? I lived in Germany long enough to hear a fair share of horror stories of how the schools changed after the Nazis placed their own into the schools. D.A.R.E. was the camel's head in the tent, eh?

IF IT'S JUST FIVE, GOLD'S GOING HIGH!
IF IT'S JUST TEN, GOLD'S YOUR FRIEND!
IF IT'S ANYTHING MORE, WATCH GOLD ROAR!

Thanks.

F*

Still not clear on when the ECU will make announcement about Gold backing. Are they even going to make an official statement?

I thought they were going to make an announcement in May, with their likely composition of reserves. Also it appears that CB's will be locked into their gold reserves and there should not be any more CB gold disposals from these Esperanto Currency members thus removing the overhang.

With High unemployment, high taxes and anaemic growth, the Euro should be weak. I expect them to say something like at the start of the Euro we will have X amt of gold, dollars, yen, GBP etc. I don't think they will tie gold to the amount of currency they will issue. BTW, I ate some chocolate Euro coins last week for Easter.

Rubin Says Some Circumstances
Call for Fixed-Exchange Systems
Dow Jones Newswires


WASHINGTON -- Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin stressed Tuesday that he prefers a flexible exchange-rate system, but acknowledged that in special circumstances fixed-exchange rate regimes might be appropriate.


 A Case-by-Case Question
Rubin says certain circumstances warrant fixed-rate exchange systems
 ***
 The Japan Connection
Treasury secretary reiterates support for yen exchange-rate intervention



Mr. Rubin, who was speaking at the Brookings Institution, was asked by economist C. Fred Bergsten whether it would be advisable for the global system to evolve to a more fixed regime.

The Treasury secretary said that in talks over revamping the global financial architecture, foreign exchange hasn't figured prominently.

"Flexible exchange rates on the whole, have served very well," Mr. Rubin added. "Having said that, I think there are circumstances in which a fixed exchange rate can be beneficial if a country is willing to support them with the kind of macro-economic discipline and other regimes necessary to make them work." He termed flexibile-exchange rates a "better idea," however.

At a press conference after his address, Mr. Rubin reviewed this week's meetings in Washington of finance ministers and central bankers from industrial and emerging economies. The Group of Seven ministers and central bankers will convene Wednesday as part of their regular spring consultations. The G-7 is comprised of the U.S., Japan, Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Canada.

See the full text of Mr. Rubin's remarks.

Mr. Rubin noted that he expects Japan's efforts to sustain an economic recovery will figure prominently in the G-7 discussions. He added that Japan's recovery is of "enormous importance" for not only Japan itself but for Asia and the global economy as well.

The Treasury secretary said that "as always" the G-7 will discuss foreign-exchange matters." He declined to comment, however, on the market impact of last week's Bank of Japan intervention against dollar. But just as he had done last Thursday when the first wave of Bank of Japan dollar sales were launched in U.S. trading, Mr. Rubin said he "welcomed" the intervention.


He also reiterated that the U.S. shares Japan's concerns over the weak yen but still reaffirmed Washington's strong-dollar policy. On the other hand, he cautioned reporters that his remarks aren't intended to give any ideas about levels or intended levels.

"As I have said, I think [a strong dollar] has contributed to lower inflation and I think it has contributed to lower interest rates," Mr. Rubin said. "I think it is very much in our interest and I think it will continue to be in our interest."

Mr. Rubin said that "it is premature to make a judgment on how markets have reacted" to Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's 16 trillion yen ( $123.49 billion ) stimulus package.

He noted that it appears that Tokyo's objective "is to re-establish strong domestic demand-led growth" and that if Japan does that then all else will follow accordingly.

Another issue, he added, is not only what will Japan do immediately, but what will it do in 1999 and 2000. Those are the kind of issues that will "hopefully be dealt with" when details of Mr. Hashimoto's plan are announced, the Treasury secretary said.

One questioner at the Brookings meeting noted that economists are speculating that if Mr. Rubin departs from his Treasury post, the U.S. economy might be affected negatively.

"I plan to be around for a while," the Treasury secretary responded, adding that he hadn't heard such talk. Mr. Rubin has made similar comments in the past when asked if he plans to leave his post soon.

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Copyright  1998 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Personal Path

Tom

Mozel: As usual, superior thought well presented. Your short post last nite on the reason for gold ( or a disciplinary equivalent ) was absolutely above reproach. So much so that it should be committed to memory by every goldbug. It is the only counter one needs in dealing with paper hangers.

On first reading, I was a little uncomfortable with some elements of your last post re abolition. The discomfort disappeared directly as I realized the importance of consistency in your argument. As I understood it: If abolition is to be national policy, then that policy should be accompanied by due compensation to those deprived of their lawful property. As it is in the assertion of The Right of Eminent Domain. WITHOUT regard for the sudden change in moral climate, so called. It is I think, a point that cannot be quarreled with.

The record would seem to indicate that Mr. Lincoln, far from being a rabid abolitionist, was more concerned with maintaining his vision of the union. If abolition was his primary objective, why wait until 1864 to issue the Emancipation Proclamation? If emancipation was fundamental to the reason for conflict, it seems to me it should have been issued on the first day.

LGB -

Thank you for your spirited support. Remember the 1000 Platinum Eagles I bought at $392? My client is well pleased.

I think you defined well what has been eluding me about the response to posts hereabouts. You have been accused of responding too quickly to posts; or not having read them fully before your response. Seems they are projecting their own limited comprehension and assimilation abilities on you. I've known traders who could glance at a market report and assimilate the entire page in seconds.

I do not, however, see you redefining what another poster has said. It is very frustrating to post words for all to see, and to then have the words completely twisted into some version that fits the responders prejudices more precisely. You may pick the battle, but you respond to what is there, not what you are predisposed to see.

I fond myself spending more time repeating what I have already said than dealing with what is going on today. How many times on this forum have I written that I trade both sides of the market and could care less where it goes? Maybe 20? Yet the screamers step in to yell that I am an "ideological gold short". This redefinition becomes tiresome and finally a colossal waste of time. Let the collected Kitco souls have their shouters, we, who are quietly making profits, will find other uses for our energies.

It gets tiresome, when speaking of current market strategy, to be assailed from all sides with $30,0000 gold buying ANOTHER's oil, while the world collapses around our feet. I try to tell folks what is making money today, but their sights are set, and inbred tunnel vision is the surest mark of a serious goldbug. These same folk impose this tunnel vision on all who trade equities, yet they do not see the inherent contradiction in holding this view.

Farfel decided he had to war with me - with his own particular brand of reality - after I posted the following etiquette busting and patently offensive statement in response to his pooh poohing of APH:

3/26

Farfel -

Enough with the, "I don't care, I'm buying more" shouting, OK?

It is now second only to 3-2-5 for maximum irritant factor. I'll even make a deal....... I make no more movie reviews, and not a peep else about limes ( maybe one ) , and you quit with the I don't care thingie. Whaddaya think?

I cautioned APH about the 6.30 shorts a couple days ago. The best thing to do with silver in this range, is to wait. I agree with many of your posts, and I am not spoiling for a row. I have been very impressed with APH's approach to the market, and he bears viewing as his calm competence is well evident. APH has called the volatility in silver better than any other on this site in recent weeks.

OK

The Far Out One choose to receive this as a battle cry, and the crimson, bulging veins have not left his face since.

As for his assertions that:

" In my last discussion with Mr. RJ, he announced that gold was definitely headed South and it would see 280 before it ever saw 310 ( he was wrong and that is why we no longer hear from him...it's called embarrassment ) ...

At the same time, he forecast that Palladium would surpass gold in value... ( he was right...but for the wrong reasons...not because of weakness in gold but simply because of unusual strength in palladium ) ....

Ergo, as per my previous post addressed to you, it is not particularly impressive that RJ made the call, declaring "Palladium will be worth more than gold this year."

After all, when someone is announcing that a particular metal ( Gold ) is headed for the toilet, then that same person could forecast that virtually any commodity is headed higher than gold ( and, ultimately, that person would be right, correct? )

Me again:

Lets look at what I actually posted, and at the "embarrassment" with which I repost:

I simply think gold will retest the lows. Everything, and I mean absolutely everything, points to 280. Maybe a little limp up to 310 - 315, but 280 - 285 will happen before June. The only people seeing bulls in the near term future for gold are those that wish them there.

And to GSC:

You also seem to think I will be hurt badly by further price rises in gold. I covered some of my shorts last week and all the rest is against long silver or platinum. Let gold go up, my long whites protect me. Actually a real strong rally in gold would be the best thing for me. I'm rooting for it. Go Gold.. That I put in short term sell trades seems to irk you all to hell. Why should it bother you that I put in a few shorts? You should be jumping with glee that I took some losses last week, albeit a very small percentage of the profits in silver and platinum.

Me once more:

Most importantly, I have detailed in many thousands of words EXACTLY why platinum and palladium will rise. I have warned everybody the Russian situation would cause palladium to fly, yet the Farfetched guttersnipe writes the above. Despite the fact that I originally called for .palladium to top gold last June when palladium was $160 and Gold was $340. Nobody here has gone into more detail about platinum and palladium, yet I called it for all the wrong reasons.

This guy lives in a separate reality. His contradictions, mistakes, and prejudices are here for all to see. He sucks the usefulness out of this forum and does all here a great disservice. I leave Kitco to the Farfels of the world, and their cheerleaders. They deserve it. This will of course reduce Kitco from a viable discussion forum to a glee club for gold. I can find zero usefulness in that.

As for the announcement from OLD GSC that stocks are indeedy a good investment, I had not the same enthusiasm as you for this belated admission.

I am reminded of an interrogation technique called, "Establish Your Identity". This is a very effective way to find out something about someone real fast. You simply accuse the prisoner of something so heinous, that he will bend over backward to confess his own lesser crimes and his true identity in an attempt to deny responsibility for the imagined crimes you accuse him of. This used to be quite popular in the pre Miranda days of law enforcement, and is still taught in Army Intelligence today. This approach is especially effective when orchestrated with the good guy/bad guy routine, and an extra dose of fear UP just to crank in the message, but I digress. The point is that OLD GSC finds it easier to admit that you were right and that the sky is blue, rather than admit the greater crime that he has been calling it yellow all along.

I will be reading the forum from time to time, there is still stuff to learn here. I dearly hope gold goes through the roof and all at Kitco are rewarded for their hope and fealty. As wacky as the worst of Kitco is, they are still kindred spirits, and as deserving of a good break as anyone I can think of. You Lurky, are one of the few voices left who adds common sense and reality to this site. Keep 'em honest. Thanks again for the kind words. Oh yeah, the Liberty handle is cool.

OK

PS

Thanks Nicky, Robby, EBy, Promy, Eldy, Mikey, Cheroky, and all the other y's who offered words of support. Good luck with all your trades.