Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:00 - ID#273227)
Not a fun feeling is it? I've been waiting for $10 silver is months, now I'm afraid it will get there without me.

Earl - its good to read your writings again. I like mozel's writing also. I see you have hooked up with Mozel already. Maybe its time to start reading Kitco daily again - scanning though the nights postings I see alot of old handles. Even the confused followers are still around. I guess they never go away.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:01 - ID#237149)
End of line - for gold
It's unbelievable! I've been away for awhile and when I come back for a brief moment to see how the good people from Kitco are doing, I still find F* annoying the s* out of this discussion group. The guy just not give up in being a pain in the butt! Sorry, it's just upsetting to see someone blindly spitting trash over and over again. Looks like some people need to use the computer as a toilet.
Hey, it's a great time to short gold folks! Looks like we'll see a drop coming soon. I wish I could short more, but I already have all I can in to it. It's amazing how the world changed, gold is no longer what it used to be. The interest in it is not there, and the supply is greater than ever. Europe will make that clear soon! Silver may be a good buy, specially if it hits $6.10. I wonder what APH's opinion on silver is, he seems to have a 'silver touch'. Platinum? It's going to blow off the ceiling and touch the sky. Get your hands on it!

Good luck, and happy trading.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:02 - ID#339212)
Prerequisites of a Gold BULL

Hedgehog posted this which I liked:
Date: Tue Apr 14 1998 02:51
Hedgehog ( Myrmidon. thats ok. ) ID#39828:


Anyhow. Bill Buckler says the bull is born in Australia. We got
big mothers of bulls. Wide open spaces, healthy diet, love and
nurturing. What more does a bull require. What better place for
the secular gold bull to be born especially when the AUS$ behaves
itself. Here is to the green pastures upon which this bull wik umm
will graze.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:03 - ID#227238)
Mozel: As recently as one month ago, I was once again a victim of crime. This was the worst in the series. To the tune of some $12-13 k. The bulk of which is not insured. Not including countermeasures of almost $5k. In the past 10 or so years my losses to crime are on the order of some $20k. With an additional $15k spent on prevention. ....... I do however take some comfort in knowing that a county sheriff at least appeared to view the aftermath. That is often a rarity here.

I may appear resigned but I am, most assuredly, not indifferent.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:06 - ID#339212)
@ Kelowna re: 23:41 "Stayed par today"

You lucky man. Give me your golds, I'll give you mine.

My dogs went down by $11,000 today. No wonder why
FARFEL calls me a defeated goldbug.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:07 - ID#210235)
@Minds, Markets and Money , or (are you buying stocks for the "long haul?")
Wonderful if somewhat rare book. In 1982, Shlomo Maital was the first to apply individual psychology to markets. An excerpt:


The fecund Myodes lemmus, Lapp cousin to the American meadow mouse, doubles its numbers, in good times, twice a year. In a decade, a single pair doubling itself twenty times becomes 1,048,576 lemmings - two raised to the twentieth power. . . . Then nature knocks. The incredible march begins. Plague and predators slash many zeros from their numbers on their way to the sea. The remaining zeros plunge into the frigid Barents Sea or the Atlantic Ocean. And the handful left behind, who didn't hear the call or ignored it, begin work again on the powers of 2.

. . . . While not quite as frequent as the quinquennial-to-decennial lemming parade, financial bubbles, panics, crises, and collapses are not rare. Pick at random one year in the period 1763 - 1930. ( my note: years are listed here ) . If the history of financial panics proves anyting, it is the following theorem, enunciated by J. M. Barker, which I believe should be engraved in large letters on a larger-than-life bronze statue of Myodes lemmus and placed in front of the six stately Greek columns of the New York Stock Exchange:

Whenever you have a group of people thinking the same thing at the same time, you have one of the hardest emotional causes in the world to control.

Unlike the lemmings, you can't always save yourself by sitting tight. "Nothing is more suicidal," Keynes admonished, "than a rational investment policy in an irrational world." Keynes spoke knowledgeably. A brilliant speculator, he succeeded in increasing King's College's capital by a factor of ten. Kipling was wrong, it does not always help to keep your head when everyone else is losing his. In their sprint to the sea, lemmings flood over Hardin's commons and chew them to the roots. An investor caught in a panic who, like the high-minded prisoner in PRISONER'S DILEMMA, sticks with his assets simply subsidizes those who rush to sell and thereby salvage at least something, even though they contribute to the downhill slide and aggravate it.

When you next tot up your life savings and ponder what to do with it, recall Barker, Keynes, and the small Scandinavian rodent."

(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:08 - ID#153102)
Yes, in the "real world", as you say, there is no law and no Constitution. "Inflamed passions" pretty much justify anything, I guess.
If the politicians are "inflamed", anything goes. You should be grateful they only took your gun. Today, they would take your car and your gun for an infraction like improper storage. But, hey, their passions are inflamed, aren't they ? And, like Earl says, it's all inevitable anyway.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:09 - ID#227238)
Kuston: Thanks. Sometimes it's difficult to come up with new ways to say: Gold is going up. ...... I've tried the cheerleading thing. It's an unfruitful enterprise. ...... So I lurk a lot. And now try to figure out how to get back into SWC. : )

(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:10 - ID#210235)
@cousin Oris
Good evening. Just wanted to mention your vodka-and-pickles seems to have a pretty good record of spotting market trends. Find that blond for Pope Bernatz XII yet?


(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:13 - ID#270265)
Buy low sell high
I wish I could get that straight. Too bad they don't have an anti greedy pill. Atleast I was smart to get out close to a high but want to get back in when there is a gold drop.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:16 - ID#344308)


kennedy was killed for attempting to abolish the federal reserve...
he tugged on super man's cape...
as have others.....

(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:21 - ID#153102)
Yeah, the cops have to come by and do an audit sometimes, so they know how much their partners, the crooks, actually took.

I think both the official and informal mafias have you, mentally, just where they want you. Finished your taxes yet ?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:23 - ID#22956)
Is that Platinum I see.......on a tear??? ohmy ( ! ) ...
go plat! Mark! ....
cherokee---the grain train is approaching......should you want to get on board...just a little?? corn?? beans?? use some put profies...uh huh. check fed-ex......I is gettin ant ( sy ) for coinage...

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:24 - ID#384350)
Cherokee, JFK
Yep that's the way I see it. By printing Treasury notes in stead of Fed notes, you eliminate the national debt and the IRS. The international bankers can't start wars so as to put countries in debt and then collect the interest with which to buy up industry, media, politicians. And shucks a trillion dollars ain't what it used to be. Think some of these money lenders might have to get real jobs.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:27 - ID#227238)
Mozel: Fer shame. You're, unfairly, generalizing on my specific and extrapolating it into areas and thoughts unintended. Occasional lack of fervor on my part, does not constitute a rejection of point of view on yours. Try to avoid using my words as a negative example to brow beat another. I'm on your team completely. It's just that if I'm expected to charge into the mouth of hell, I'd like a fair idea of what's on the other side. Beforehand.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:29 - ID#238422)
My cousin, thanks, I also noticed it worked...
Three weeks in a row proved that this is reliable
indicator. I was out of pickles at the end of this
week, so I skip forecast for this and next week.
Next week I'm gonna be in Europe to talk to major
pickle producer. If something happens while I'm
absent, please do not blame me.

Hope to meet blonde next week...

On behalf of all goldbugs, those who drink and those
who quit, will try to convince EMU brothers to stick
with 20% of gold for EURO. Hope for more, but it seems
they are out of pickles too...

(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:33 - ID#256250)
Nice post D.A.

Gold 17,000
Silver 16,000
H.G. Copper 12,000


0 0 33,795,629
879,790 0 55,192,853
879,790 0 88,988,482

warehouse stocks:
GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

475,158 0 0 0 0 475,158
159,146 0 0 0 0 159,146
634,304 0 0 0 0 634,304

(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:34 - ID#153102)
@Earl Yeah, me, too.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:34 - ID#384350)
Slavery and the Fed
"We have not abolished slavery; we have nationalised it."---Herbert Spencer

(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:35 - ID#401460)

I am glad to see more people have a MACs.


(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:40 - ID#227238)
Jeeez, yer feisty this evening.
Mozel: There may be some plausibility to the notion that official presence at the crime scene is as much an audit ( for proper distribution of proceeds ) as an investigation. However, my use of the words "taking some comfort" were used in the spirit of a rhetorical device, unintended for literal interpretation.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:46 - ID#227238)
mozel ( @Earl Yeah, me, too. ) : At my hand, Amigo? If so it would have been purely unintentional.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 00:54 - ID#267298)
What is one to do ?
A very good friend of mine jumped into some bank shares

His reasoning, Hell they've gone up 5% two days in a row,
just extropolate ( spelling ) that over the next few months.

Before he jumped in I said Yeah but what if just maybe the
Market corrects or something. I said I think we are witnessing
a bit of a Mania, maybe it would be better to wait for the next
down turn and buy when those shares are a bit lower.

I'm sitting here with a bunch of Gold shares ( All Down ) and I
say "you know the higher this Market goes, I think the riskier
it gets"

He says "Shit, you can't go wrong with bank stocks"

Now Here's the point.

In the past fourteen months or so, I've been wrong with
just about every investment decision I've made, while
my friend has been "ABSOLUTELY RIGHT" ( So Far ) in
every investment decision he has made.

So, the Question Remains, What is one to do ?

Please comment......

(Wed Apr 15 1998 01:03 - ID#153102)
@the golden rule
Fortunately, the world at large is not so resigned to being governed by a criminal enterprise as are the people on this continent.

Nations possessing significant gold reserves, in or out of the ground, are going to be forced to devalue an asset if the United States War on Gold continues to its goal. Then, what mechanism shall settle imbalances of trade ? There is only one apolitical currency, only one currency that is not the creature of a criminal enterprise.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 01:06 - ID#339212)
@ DBog

Near or at market tops rational disappears. I overheard a conversation today where a stock broker was trying to convince his client - a fellow at my office - to buy bank stocks. The conversation continued for 13 minutes resulting in the final commitment of the client to buy these shares. Now you know the rest of the story...what happens when Mr. public jumps in. Take a good look on bank stocks. Vertical market, eh?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 01:07 - ID#401460)


John Disney__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 01:12 - ID#24135)
African Advantages OR
Why I left the USA....

I want to be there when the Anti smoking
Nazi lobby tries to take away the Zulu's
cigarettes... Or his dagga for that matter..

(Wed Apr 15 1998 01:23 - ID#267298)
I think you and I would agree that this Market is now
truly a bubble and cannot last indefinetly, However, the
question remains, HOW MUCH WILL THE BUBBLE BE
INFLATED ? This could continue on for some time yet.

All the historical measures seem to not matter anymore
( Again, a Mania ) but, nevertheless, with Banks
P/E's being at about 11 to 16 to 1, Whereas many other
equities are at 30 to 1 and even much greater, then just
maybe Bank Shares are a bargain. Unless of course the
Markets Crashes. When this might happen nobody knows,
and, I am know thinking this may not be for some time to
come, perhaps this time next year or so...

Comments Please

(Wed Apr 15 1998 01:25 - ID#340302)
@ALL...let me begin by addressing the most important issue....
...of the night. Specifically, MY WIFE COOKS THE GREATEST BEETS IN THE ENTIRE WORLD! Yummy, yummy, yummy...

Oh...and now back to the esoteric world of GOLD...

It seems Mr. RJ condescended to post once again amongst the oddball Kitco goldbug crowd...and much to my surprise and glee, I was the focus of his ad hominem tirade. Again, I must express some bafflement concerning how such a super commodities trader, who purports to be a cool, non-emotional, detached PM analyst...the world's most dexterous "whore" ( his proud, verbatim, emotional slander on my part ) for the world's largest PM Trading House, etc., etc....I must wonder why this giant among enlightened men chooses to consider little old me for more than a moment. He demands respect...but pays me none...constantly playing word games with my handle. To Mr. RJ, I am the "Far Out One," the "Farfetched guttersnipe," etc. Yet, I will not sink so low...he will always be Mr. RJ to me.

Frankly, I am flattered by his emotional fixation on me. After all, I am no more than a mere private PM trader, educated in Economics at Yale, who found his vocation in the world of Hollywood. In the hallowed world of PM trading, I am but a mere layman. What gives then?

Although he is quick to dismiss me as someone divorced from reality, his emotional post suggests that maybe I am hitting some notable chords of Truth. Why else pay any significant attention to me?

You know, not so long ago, I was walking in Hollywood and I happened upon a well-dressed stranger who proceeded to tell me he wanted to screw my mother and pee all over my face. My reaction: complete indifference...I simply walked past him and quietly went about my business. I figured the man was a lunatic and his harsh words did not deserve a moment of my personal attention.

That is the normal reaction to lunatics and people one perceives as "divorced from reality." Sheer indifference. Yet, RJ is not indifferent to me, is he? Actually, he seems quite emotionally attached.

You see, when people make statements that you perceive will profoundly undermine your well-being, your respect, your entire perspective on life, then the normal reaction is confrontation...often heatedly at first...but over time, one learns to cast away the emotional handicap and rely entirely on pure, scintillating logical analysis.

I have never purported to be a professional trader. Although I have the ability to turn off my emotions completely and be as cool and unflappable as any Wall Street trading "whore," that is not the lifestyle I choose. I invest with conviction...for example, I never buy Oils because I do not like what they are doing to our oceans. Period. I view my investment in an Oil as a vote for the perpetuation of a societal status quo I abhor. Another example: I refuse to invest in military production companies. I do not wish to endorse directly the bombing or murder of another human simply for profit. Period. Another example: I try to invest in golds and silvers with proven track records of environmental sensitivity. Period. As cool and intellectual as my argumentative skills might be, I AM actually a very emotional fellow in my heart...ergo, I strive to make investment decisions that do not upset my heart. I know that it is nearly impossible to be a "virgin in a whorehouse." On occasion, I stray from my principles...but I believe it is important to make the effort to stay true to your heart.

As you know, I have firmly declared I play only one side of the PM market...the long side. I never short gold nor silver. I am a major gold/silver bug. Thus, I do not subscribe to the plethora of anti-gold/silver propagandization purveyed by Wall Street and its New Paradigm disciples. I find their arguments against these PM's to be specious, self-serving, and a notable threat to the world's most sensible hedge against financial catastrophe. Although I admit the existence of self-serving motives with respect to my PM investments, at the same time, I honestly believe that Wall Street's rant against PM's and its over-speculation in the paper markets is a significant threat to the welfare of this nation. Furthermore, I believe the New Paradigm rant is a stellar example of twisted intellectual castle-in-the-air disguising a perverse, mercenary ideology -- one designed by Wall Street and its corporate allies as a sophistry whose aim is tyranny over the average American worker.

I am afraid that if Wall Street succeeds and convinces this country to dump its gold reserves ( as Canada has essentially done ) , then this entire nation will be put in jeopardy. Do we want the great stagflation that is unfolding rapidly in Canada to visit this country? I think not. China accumulates gold...Russia accumulates gold...Japan accumulates gold...Germany accumulates gold...India accumulates silver...and the United States just accumulates more and more paper ( abstruse derivatives, junk bonds, and other paper detritus ) . In the event of a global systemic financial crisis, what will happen to America if its hard financial assets are in fact consigned to the dustbin of history? I fear for America...I do.

You may ask: where does RJ fit into this preceding little exposition of my personal values? And I would suggest the answer lies in the last two words of my question: "personal values."

After re-reading RJ's post, I had an epiphany. I think I did RJ a major injustice in labelling him as an "ideological gold short." It was a mistake and I do apologize for my erroneous interpretation. I realize now that, back then, at the particular moment we had our confrontation, he merely assumed the role of ideological gold short for the moment when, in reality, he is completely devoid of ideology...and apparently very proud of it.

It's been my experience that there is nothing more infuriating to certain individuals who operate on both sides of the fence in life than those individuals who stake a position on only one side of the fence. The former decry the latter as dupes...and a host of other though taking a stand on one side of the fence is such an awful crime. I will admit that, as a committed gold/silver long, I may not make as much money on the ups and downs as those who simply "play the action." However, I still do fairly well. It seems the worst crime a person can commit within the Wall Street New Paradigm is the crime of not maximizing profit. How sad.

In RJ's case, the pejoratives manifest themselves in his descriptions of
"goldbugs with inbred tunnel vision," "the Farfels of the world," the guys with "prejudices, " etc. In other words, the people who have taken a stand and hold firm beliefs. Yes, I admit I am one of "them."
Yet, I ask for no offers of sainthood...I simply do it because it makes my heart feel good.

RJ...ask yourself this one singular question...isn't it time you did yourself a favor in life and allowed your heart to feel good?



(Wed Apr 15 1998 01:28 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Shaaka Zulu ( is spelling correct? ) , cutting the head
of his enemy off, said: "Those, who do not drink
or smoke, will die being in a good health...".

Brother, I think Shaaka was the man.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 01:36 - ID#339212)
@ DBog

I am definetely looking to jump into the DOW bandwagon
and I will do so with some risk money. The plan is simple:

Someday, the time will be right to load with a bunch of
LEAPs puts and ride it all the way down. Selection criteria
are simple. Watch the 5 weakest DOW stocks and when you
identify a market downturn buy the puts. You will be
happy you did. Forget the long side. The boat is gone.

Steve in TO__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 01:38 - ID#287337)
Hey DBog
Take a look at Prometheus' earlier post about lemmings! Yer friend is doing OK now because he's part of the trend ( remember Marty Zweig says "the trend is your friend" : ) and he'll always be part of the trend. The trend is upward at the moment- but it's obvious from what you said that if someone were to ask him why the trend is upward he would be completely at a loss for words.

When the trend starts down he'll lose his money- and when you ask him why the downward trend happened he will only be able to repeat the vapid explanations published in the media.

The important fact to remember about lemmings is that they do things by instinct- and so do investors like your friend. As Andy Sarlos said- most investors are motivated by greed and fear. Those are emotions, instinctive reactions, not rational thoughts. You'll be vindicated for moving out of the way of the coming market chaos.

The main problem is, it has been very difficult to estimate when the music will stop and everyone will scramble to get a seat before all the others do. I think the wildcard that has resulted in the unprecedented market distortions we're seeing is US government intervention directly in the equity markets. As far as I'm concerned, the game is rigged, and people always get burned when they play in a rigged game. I think one should just stay out of such situations, just on principle.

It may seem like you go out of the mainstream equity market early, but as John Rockefeller once said that any man who tries to wring the last dollar out of an investment by hanging on to it until the peak he thinks he can predict- is a fool.


(Wed Apr 15 1998 01:38 - ID#215379)
Farfel, Well said.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 01:38 - ID#266105)

Not all so bad. California banned restaurant smoking
long ago, bars just recently. Pull into a college town
saloon couple days after taking effect, no ashtrays.
Head north, pull into tavern in little burg nestled
in the mountains of northern Cal, bartender puffing

"Thought that was against the law."

( puff )

"Mind if I smoke?"

( puff )

It has to do with earrings and the thickness of the phone book.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 01:43 - ID#239438)
I share your feelings of frustration, as of late many of my supposedly well-informed investments have produced less-than-stellar results, while the masses and their fund manager gurus continue to reap substantial profits. This equities bubble will eventually collapse, taking the mortgaged-to-the-hilt masses with it. The Fed, Ole Slick and the PPT will ultimately be powerless to prevent it. Global factors have created this situation ( and we all thought that it was the supreme intelligence, vast financial acumen and limitless confidence of the Boomers, particularly those who are active inside the Beltway ) and those same global factors will ultimately bring it down. I note with some interest the IMF comments on the US Equities market. On a more personal level, until recently I was doing quite a bit of day-trading. One day, the system locked up. I could not buy or sell, could not reach a broker by phone to execute a trade. It occurred to me with startling clarity that this was a very dangerous game to play, that I could lose my investment capital in a very short time and that there would be nothing I could do about it. Someday this exact thing will happen to a very large number of "investors" who cannot concieve of a bear market. I cannot afford to be one of them. Go Platinum.

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Wed Apr 15 1998 01:48 - ID#25867)
X ads
TO ED FISHBAINE: Please take note that your stock promotion message has been deleted. All that's left are a few negative comments about the company which you've provoked. In my opinion this hurts, not helps the stock. I hope that you will be able to conclude from this that our discussion group is not a great spot for running promos.

TO Whom it May Concern: Focus your critcisms on the comments, not the people making them. I'm repeating this sensible suggestion made earlier. It will greatly enhance the quality of the discussion.

Playing Commodoties Conservatively Dept: You might consider shorting far out of the money silver call options now. The premiums are generous. For example Dec 900 silver calls settled at 12 cents.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 01:49 - ID#257148)
babel fish --- Ha Ha, Hair Hare, Here Hear.
Gianni Dioro
Thanks for your reply. I didn't use a translation program, just non-argotic french from memory to get warm rabbits from chaud lapin. I was wondering whether anyone would notice. I thought it was an appropriate benediction amongst so much antagonism. LGB were you born with a hare up your arxe?

Happy Trading and Warm Rabbits to y'all

John Disney__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 01:52 - ID#24135)
Looking for trouble
For RJ and Farfelstilskin ( aka Andy "Smith" )

How do you guys work up the motivation for this war of
words?? Sometimes we're right sometimes we're wrong..
Are egos being wounded here ??? try band aids ..
Anyway RJ ... LGB LOVES you .. for what that's worth..
but only between periods of chest thumping which doesnt
leave much time.

For Brother Oris .. noticed your omission of forecast.
.... bets are off.. have a good trip.. Bernatz is now in
ROMA .. if you get a chance look him up.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:02 - ID#255304)
@ J Disney & Myrmidon
Good evening gents. I did decide on HGMCY but was rousted out of bed early yesterday and today. Hence I did not put in the order as I wanted to see what the london market was doing before buying. As it looks the Harmony monster is hanging tough in the face of adversity these last two days. If things look stable in the am I'm sending in the order. My portfolio will read HGMCY, TVX & CAU. It's going to be a fun one from here on in. I'll deal will the DROOY issue once POG gets around 340.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:02 - ID#267298)
Myrmidon; STEVE in TO_A
Thanks for the response, I shall turn in now and mull
things over.

Myrmidon, I am not as sophisticated as yourself as an investor,
I appreciate the advise but I don't understand Leaps,
Calls , Puts and many other options available to investors.
I simply buy a stock and hope it appreciates, if it does, I
sell it and make a profit. If it doesn't, I either sell it at a loss
or hold it waiting for it to come back and take my chances.

Not sophisticated, but, untill I got into Gold, very effective.

Thanks Again....

Steve in TO_A:

"The trend is upward at the moment".

That's my whole point, I don't disagree with anything
you say, but, if the TREND stays UPWARD for the
next few months or possibly years, we miss out on profits
that could be realized.

Thank you also, Off to bed...

John Disney__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:03 - ID#24135)
Zulus are SMOKING!
For 2bro2b
In the Natal countryside, Zulus frequently carry "traditional"
arms for cultural reasons .. these include cultural spears,
pangas, and knobkerries ( use to hit guys on the head in a
cultural manner ) .. Trying to prohibit these guys from smoking
could be dangerous to your health.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:12 - ID#267298)
I'm glad someone feels my frustration, and I can assure you,
I feel your's also. I think we may be in the same or similar
investment camps. Guess all we can do now is hope for
the best, Anyway, I've got to turn in ( Work Tommorrow ) ,
So, thanks for responding, I'll think about your post and
talk to ya later................


(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:15 - ID#339212)
@ AZTEC, read FARFEL's 16:42, the last paragraph..

it will make you feel like a million dollar man!

LORD DISNEY, I hpe the ZULUS don't smoke Camels,
.. the animals I mean...

DBog, Me a sophisticated investor? No way.
You must see my balance sheet of gold stocks!
I am so glad I do not have a color printer to
see the daily red ink.

Strad Master
(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:16 - ID#250297)
I like thoughtful posts.
FARFEL: A most eloquent post. I haven't been around to read or post but yours was the first one I read tonight and I must say that it was impressive. I won't comment on what RJ may have said to you since I haven't read that, yet. Nevertheless, it is refreshing to read a position statement that so clearly defines where you are in your investing and personal life. Bravo! We live nearby one another. E-mail me and perhaps we can meet someday.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:20 - ID#266105)

Hey Aurator here's one you might like,
booming, squeaking and 'barking' sands.
After two centuries of studies they
still can't figure it out. Kinda lengthy
but I found some interesting departure
points along the way.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:29 - ID#257148)
and is my afrikaans worse than my french?
Crusty, M the unspellable
are the zuluz smoking zl?

Crusty, have you noticed that both son of crusty and this salty one are forgotten in their prognostications of a spike down?

Time will tell arrows how to fly


(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:32 - ID#31868)
Hmmmmmmm, had dinner with Mike Sheller this evening...for me it was like
having the Belgian teach me to utilize a razor to shave. I like Sheller, a heart so much larger than the fabric upon which the stars hang that he charts.

There is hope for all of us within the context of his imagination, his caring and honesty.

My monkey cynicism was allowed this evening to drag my knuckles in a step up that weak salmon never think nor dream of.

I shall look at the next moon and believe that any of us can land there if only we dream a living reality.

John Disney__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:32 - ID#24135)
Take your time .. softly softly ..
For Aztec
I'm personally worried about the gold price.. Because its
come off in currency terms and is vulnerable to a rise in the
dollar .. Also the stochastics all say sell.
So Ive been selling stuff slowly whenever good bids are
available. Ive dumped all randfontein.. working off some rangold
.. Never held much Drooy save for options/preferred.
Selling little bits of Harmony
BUT very little Harmony stock seems on offer above 24 rand ( $4.75 ) .
Its a tough place to buy because a drop back to say 17 rand
would be very easy.
If a situation arises where offers are small and HIGH .. like
500 shares at 27 .. next offer kind of thing .. I may try
running the stock up myself.. I think its thin enough to do it.
I've tried this before with little or no success but it is
always fun. But if stock is on offer in quantity I will
continue burnt offering policy.. my profits are good and I
dont want to blow them though greed.
If things continue to look grim .. Ill just sell off
gold and add implats ( which has doubled earnings and is
undervalued I think ) .

Strad Master
(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:34 - ID#250297)
FARFEL: Besides, I've got a concert coming up in the LA environs that you might be interested in knowing about. BTW, anyone else in the LA area interested in that, please feel free to e-mail me as well.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:37 - ID#31868)
Mr. Mick

(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:43 - ID#22956)
Is anyone watching this move right now??
holy palladium, Batman!! @ 342/oz!! if gold could take notes...... watch Platinum catch up.
scores ( $ ) !!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:43 - ID#257148)
But did he show you his obsidian?

we must take a beach-side stroll at sunset one day, when the shadows are long and the ther is lit golden.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:44 - ID#286279)
Does this train carry gamblers Mr. Farfel? How about my friend Rambling Midnight?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:44 - ID#255304)
I really dont think the downside will occur. There are just too many people who like the way gold looks, they like the feel of owning a bar gold, they like gold jewelry etc.
Yea sure all the banks in the world could sell their reserves but then what. Simple supply an demand will bring and keep gold at 340 to 360. Companies who cant lean out their operations will fold and their mines will be purchased by the likes of ABX until sooner or later you'll have a few major producers and a lot of exploration companies.
The other reason I dont feel the gold market will crash and burn is there are too many individuals in the world who need and want a level financial playing field. Sooner or later some global medium of exchange must be established.
Again I say the big question is the move to 340.
If I were a portfolio manager I would have all my precious metals plays lined up just waiting to do the same thing to them that I had done to the rest of the stock market. For every winner there is a loser except when the fed keeps printing more money for the winners. Not withstanding that issue, when the market runs its course the money will have to go somewhere.
The metals stocks are such an easy play because they are tied to pog and pog can be manipulated through options. Its almost an anti trust thing if you think about it.
Anyway I will be part of the move at least until 2000 when the lights go out in NYC at 00:00. Y2K is the biggest virus ever.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:48 - ID#224149)
.80 to $50.00 -seems Farfel foget his head
Ted I says Good Night Made A fortune In Platinum But Palladium ---Gold What? ---Now we Know the waste of time ---Good Night All Let the banks eat Gold Forever and Ever .

(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:48 - ID#22956)
A frothy message floating your way...... ( glub-glub ) ...
Yeasties are beasties..... ( bubble, bubble ) . admire the GOLDen hue

(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:49 - ID#31868)
aurator - Namaste' - wandered and emptied a quart of Cuervo - Buenos Noches!
No...but he fondled my daughter Helvitia and said it was good.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:53 - ID#286279)
Off shoot to some pickles, gulp some bullets, study some vodka.

Good night...

(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:54 - ID#339212)
AZTEC, Year 2,000 will be very bad for flying...

Y2K can crash a few planes. I hope someone is looking into airborn computers.

Yep, gold is not going below $280. ANOTHER says so. I will sleep easy tonight.

Good night all.

John Disney__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:54 - ID#24135)
Zulus and Forecasts
For Salty
I try not to ask Zulus too many frivolous questions.. like
what's that you're smoking ole buddy .. or how does that
asagai thing work.
I take your doomster forecast very seriously .. especially
when coincident with son of crusty's.. they didnt burn him at
the stake in a past life for NOTHING

(Wed Apr 15 1998 02:57 - ID#240266)
I was sitting with my broker the summer the Dow was
moving below 800 and the feeling towards that market
was very similar to the feeling about the gold market now.
The Dow had traded in a band mostly between 800 and 1000,give or
take a bit,for sixteen years and the idea of the Dow ever
breaking 1100 had been laid to rest.The generally widely held
view was that we would see 550, and soon.
In the late stages of a bear the bull is definitely
behind the barn;nowhere to be seen.
GO GOLD!Happy Trading.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 03:02 - ID#255304)
@ J Disney
I appreciate your words of caution. My stake in the metals arena accounts for maybe 25% of my investments. It isnt the core but it is the most fun due to all the variables.
I belive gold will probably be around through at least my life just because people like it. Forget about all this $30,000 business. gold needs to be around 340-360 to keep a lot of the mines open so people can have their little gold things.
This is the simpleton theory. Like Einstein said, nothing is complicated, it is just a lot of simple things that when put together appear complex.
On the lighter side has the Zulu nation filed a class action suit againts the tobacco corps? Maybe wall street will start selling options on law suits?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 03:04 - ID#339212)
@ WindyLake - we are in the wrong bull, Palladium up $47+ !!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 03:10 - ID#22157)
Anti Smoking Lobby
Alkohol und Nikotin
Rafft die halbe Menschheit hin
Ohne Alkohol and Rauch
Stirbt die andere Haelfte auch!!

Translated that means:
Alcohol and Nicotin
Kills half of Mankind
Without booze and smoke
The other half dies too!!!

Believe me, I am totally fed up with those health fanatics and antismoking brigade, especially here in Australia. The saftey and health nuts are chipping every bit of personal freedom left away from us. Australia probably is one of the worst countries in this respect. They made us even wear bicycle helmets!!! Failing to wear a seatbelt for example cost you $AU 150.00 - ONEHUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS. That is for low income earners up to one half of their weekly income, and this all in the name of the Volksgesundheit. These fanatics live in perpetual worry that someone out there could enjoy themselves. Together with the anti-everything lifehaters they should be bound in golden chains with heavy jewellery and then thrown ( or slowly lowered ) into a deep lake!!!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 03:18 - ID#240266)
I've got gold,silver and platinum in stocks and physical ( insurance ) but
I don't got palladium.Notice how all the metals ,to one degree or
another are well of their lows with one at a high.Somebody said something
earlier about moving sunlight and dogs...GO GOLD!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 03:23 - ID#339212)

My friend you haven't seen the worst yet. Here ( USA )
in the country of the "FEE" there is a state called Arizona,
which has a city near Phoenix, called MESA. Now you will
learn the rest of the story.

In Mesa, Arizona, of the US of A, some idiots passed a law which
prohibited all smoking in the city INCLUDING smoking in the streets.
Noone could smoke outside or in his car in that city. Fines of $100
I believe.

Last year the results were felt. Business went to hell,
empty restaurants, empty bars, a real deadsville. The
lawmakers amended last year the city ordinance and you can
now smoke in the street. What a priviledge!

Remember, this is the land of the "free".

Anyone has any questions on gold confiscation and his rights
to continue to bear arms as a US citizen? Give me a break!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 03:32 - ID#339212)
@ WindyLake - here is the answer from FARFEL's post of 16:42

FARFEL: ( post of Apr. 14, time 16:42 )

In any case, the metals usually stay within a fairly steady historical
relativistic norm to each other. When the deviation from the norm gets
way out of whack, then usually there must be a re-balance of the entire
situation. Either palladium must fall very dramatically...or gold must
rise very dramatically...unless of course, you believe in Wall Street's
New Paradigm aka The New Snake Oil Scam...and if you do, then the Kitco
Forum is definitely not for you! Anyway, I am more inclined to believe
that gold is experiencing the current market distortion and, if so, it
augurs well for an amazing little leap in the old Au.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 03:39 - ID#375405)
Yesterday morning sold my only oil stock. Was missing it by afternoon, so bought it back at slightly lower price.

Today--good report out.

Oil stock up 76% in one day!!

That was close!!!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 03:42 - ID#375405)
New company in the process of being formed.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 04:00 - ID#284255)

(Wed Apr 15 1998 04:07 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
Please comment on what you think will happen to gold and gold stocks if/when the Fed raises short term interest rates. ( 4/7/98 )
J. S. - Pittsburgh, PA

That answer depends on what prompts the Fed to raise short-term rates. If done so to address the excess liquidity and to let some air out of Wall Street's bubble, then it will be viewed as a pre-emptive tightening and gold/gold stocks could be retesting recent lows. However, based on money supply growth, it may already be too late for a perceived "pre-emptive" move.
If the Fed waits to tighten until mandated by a weakening Dollar, soaring trade deficit, or underlying inflation pressures, then gold and gold stocks may continue rising even as the Fed tightens or the market falls... as was the case in several economic cycles of the 1970's. This is one reason why gold stocks have historically had a negative beta - an inverse relationship to the major indexes.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 04:15 - ID#20135)
Couldn't sleep for some reason. Logged on and WOW! Look at that palladium. YES!!!

Please remember the many that said the palladium was at the top of its range and was headed back to normal levels soon. Plese remember all the reports that said rumors said that Russia would soon ship Palladium and Platinum. Please remember the downturn that occurred from that little rumor. Palladium - the little train that COULD.

Well, that little down turn was a buying opportunity. And as I noted the other day, I think this little downturn in gold and silver are going to looked back on as buying opportunities also.

Look at the eligible stocks in comex. Still down year over year. Comex gold eligible is so low that ANY player could wipe them out without a second thought. Look at the world situation, Asia, Japan, Europe - the dollar is hated and loaved overseas - not a good sign. The Japanese have started unloading us bonds - any major sign that is going unnoticed by most and poo pooed by others. The Gold Franc is the standard for international trade and business - unknown to the majority.

pm's and pm stocks have the capability to skyrocket. The monies thrown at the DOW and general stocks will run to this area with UNBELIEVeable results. TOO MUCH MONEY chasing to few goods. IT will happen. Look at Palladium as an early example. Last year around April 9th palladium was a $158, when would you have sold???? Would you sell this morning???

I smell a sea chaange, it has been a long time coming and I have been WAY to early. Comex is a paper game whose time is running out, looks like Lbme is a paper game whose time is running out.

Let us all be prepared. Gold is off of a devasting low AND its is strong and it is moving up. Silver is off its low, it is strong and IT is moving up. Are you going to sell to early at the beinging of a major bull market. Remember palladium, look at fundamentals, don't get confused by the papaer market.

Told you I just woke up. So forgive this rambling message, but palladium... YES!!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 04:35 - ID#20135)
Maybe old news now that palladium is pulling back but thought you might like to read it.
have skyrocketed here this morning, with the market
"panicking" at the continued lack of metal and news out of
Russia, traders said.
Meanwhile, gold and silver futures are both lower.
June palladium has been as high as $286.80 and July
platinum has been as high as $432, both life-of-contract
"Everybody is panicking," said one trade source. "There
is no new news on the Russians. So it ( the market ) just
exploded today.
"Personally, I think London being down for their four-
day weekend may have had something to do with it. I think
they came in running.
"We are showing no signs of easing up at all."
Said another contact: "Platinum and palladium are still
dominated by the lack of Russian exports. That is a pretty
one-dimensional market right now."
This contact added that today's sharp moves have
occurred in somewhat light volume, however.
One source said the base price for palladium by
consumers who need it immediately, rather than on a futures
basis, has been around $335. There have been offers from
$334 to $340, he added.
One contact noted these palladium prices have moved
higher than gold for the first time ever. Gold was fixed in
London this afternoon at $309.50, while the London afternoon
palladium fix was $318.
"We've been hearing lease rates have been nearing 100%,
or in that neighborhood, for one-month palladium," one
source said.
"Platinum has firmed on the heels of this. But lease
rates haven't really changed much. Platinum lease rates,
we've been hearing, have been around 13% to 15% for one
"But for palladium, to say it's whacked right now is an

Now if the fed raises rates a quarter of a point would palladium fall- I think not. I don't think anyone but the diehards own pm's and pm stocks. The paper pushers will play their paper game and sell the pm market short - BUT if the diehards hold tough and look at the fundatmentals and not the market PR machine - then I think pm's and pm stocks will go through a market downturn without a hitch. Think about it GE, Microsoft, Intel, ... ( a endless list of market companies ) are worth more in paper than the GDP of most of the countries in the world.

Well, I better get back to bed ... You know the drill. I smell a sea change...

(Wed Apr 15 1998 05:09 - ID#330175)
@ Cape Breton................................June Gold down .20 @ 309.80

(Wed Apr 15 1998 05:25 - ID#330175)
Poorboys....................and Nick
Poorboys:All I can say ( like a broken disk ) is *go gold*.....Nick:can't ya do better than 76%,huh?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 05:30 - ID#330175)
YEN & .....G-7

(Wed Apr 15 1998 05:48 - ID#31868)
sharefin, Hmmmmmmmmmmmm, I think anything Federal should bend over,
as far as it can, turn on the flashlight, press firmly and look inside itself for the vermin before it looks elsewhere. Once Upon A Time In America, interesting movie. View it sometime.

The mob or whatever you want to call it is firmly entrenched in the US government. Anyone who tells you otherwise, well, you get the picture...

Like I have said before, we all make choices, some, many actually, choose poorly.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 06:03 - ID#257148)
and, I wonder, why do they not see the birds?
I got just past 22:00. been busy. Gold is being talked about more openly down here, not just the goldbugs and jewellers. I listen to the birds...

And gold, why, she stoops to conquer

standing on the corner
watching all the birds go by

an ordinary, orn'ry orny ornithologist as always

(Wed Apr 15 1998 06:18 - ID#392358)
DBog, What to do........
Hello DBog:
It is often that perception of performance is based on the past. This of course is not always the best way to judge, unless were talking character.
The past of course is what gives information and refference points for trying to understand the present and future before it comes.
As a contrarin, our perception is not so much a linear line of our experiences
but the viewing of markets as having cycles, ups and downs and positioning ourselves for them in advance, then waiting. Two years to early is far better than a minute to late. I noticed a comment tonight from a person who does some day trading, in which they discussed communication difficulties in trading. A minute to late.

While I am not fully sold on GOLD, it seems a good investment for a long term wait
for the down cycle of the DOWn. Constantly buying S+P puts would drive me baty.
Also the GOLD stocks are pre-shrunk because of Gold wars and getting Bre-Xed.
Buy Low, Sell High, For sure I bought low, waiting to sell high is now the game.
Unfortunately the DOWn is like a party with a bad hangover coming in the morning.

As for convincing others of your beliefs, especialy when they criticise your past market perception performance, Learn as much as you can, speek what you know
and let each person be responsible for their choices, and let God and the future
be responsible for the outcomes. Time issues to the present from the future, the present is the place to act, the past is frozen leaving only rememberence and illumination some of which gives light to the future.

I have bet that GOLD is a chair when the music stops. I find it to be a comfortable choice. Besides I like to do something the magicians can't do. Turn paper into Gold.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 06:24 - ID#330175) ...'birdman'
G'Day mate---just back from takin out the garbage....Can life get anymore exciting,huh?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 06:30 - ID#235378)

I believe that there is a high probability that we have just completed a series of Inverted 5 wave Impulses originating as far back as early 1980. We may now be entering wave 2 of an even larger Inverted 5 Wave Impulse originating also in early 1980 with a potential target range of 400 to 500+ over the next 12 months.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 06:44 - ID#411331)
@ALL: The DOW party bubble continues to expand, the music grows louder, and the rhetoric more insame
but the morning awaits. The DOW goes up, and POG slumps. The world turns once more at an equatorial 1000 miles per hour.
I have now dumped my last tech stock, and unloaded my mutuals and
yesterday I bought HARMONY to round out a portfolio that is now 100% gold and silver backed. TVX, FSR, GRE, PDG, PRU, BGO, and finally HGMCY represents an extreme commitment to pms. Now we wait until the DOW tanks, the $US corrects and the EURO backing is announced. I expect, we may have to wait till May.
The shorts had their way with gold yesterday, dropping the spot price by about 1%. Given the leverage of gold stocks to the POG, I expect the drop in the POG dropped the XAU by 3 to 5%. Do I detect a manipulative strategy here? If you short sell gold down 1%, even if it costs you, might these same people be picking up gold shares at 3% lower?
I would sacrifice 1% to gain 3% savings in equities. Wouldn't you? Is this a possible scenario?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 07:07 - ID#36965)
Joke of the Morn
Morning Ted and all you auricinsects who persist in this pursuit of gold whilst all about us people are drunken on paper and ink excesses. They are having their day. Soon, very soon, my psychic self ponders, "Hey Tort, the POG is going up soon, the price of paper is laughable; just enjoy the moment." And speaking of psychics I post the following:

Hillary Clinton goes to a psychic who tells her : "Prepare
yourself for widowhood...your husband is about to die a violent
death." Mrs. Clinton takes a deep breath and replies : "Will I
be acquitted?"

(Wed Apr 15 1998 07:10 - ID#377196)
Palladium hits 345... and check out the downtrend line on this

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Wed Apr 15 1998 07:11 - ID#347196)
PM's Tanking
Grab a look at the Kitco Spot charts -- All dropping-- Wha's hoppnin guys??
Mtn Bear

(Wed Apr 15 1998 07:11 - ID#252391)
Throw me into the all gold camp
Throw me into the all gold, silver Plat and PD group. Looks like PD has broken and is taking everything down with it. I certainly hope the 5 implusle of the 3 rd wave ( or what ever the count ) is in place and we turn after what looks like a bad opening. Beginning to feel somewhat the fool, however. High school students reporting far better results that i've been able to achieve. Fundlementally these mining shares may be a great idea but unfortunately too few of us recognize it. In fact tonight they are being compeltely rejected. I'm pretty tired of riding out these false rallies, especially when the same determnation to buy and hold mutual funds would have provided much superior returns.

Yes, the metals day will come but there is decreasing evidence that time in now. Good 40 -50% returns for those that bought at the bottom a few months and Warren Buffett rumors ago, but since it has been more discouraging days than positive closes. Our little band here at Kitco may infact be a chorus singing to only itself in our own isolated small place of worship.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 07:19 - ID#341189)
Mtn Bear, Russia to resume exports, Perhaps this answers your question

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 15 1998 07:29 - ID#347447)
my dinner with tolerant
Had a wonderful dinner with tolerant last nite. As marvelous as the internet and email and all this electronic communication stuff is, there is still nothing like two people sitting down to break bread ( or at least fish and chips ) together. A magnetic, vital and creative man, this tolerant. Like meeting someone for the first time whom you've known all your lives. And yes, Helvetia was delightful. IS delightful. Thanks for letting me take her home man! I'll take good care of her.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 15 1998 07:30 - ID#347447)
I don't show my obsidian to anyone but you.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 07:32 - ID#289357)
Platinum and Palladium take a dive - this is why....

Wednesday April 15, 5:30 am Eastern Time

Russia PGM exports can resume soon -state reserve

MOSCOW, April 15 ( Reuters ) - Russia's acting Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko has signed a government order setting out 1998 export quotas of platinum group metals ( PGMs ) , including platinum and palladium, an official at the State Precious Metals Reserve ( Gokhran ) said on Wednesday.

``Yes, he ( Kiriyenko ) signed the government order,'' said Gokhran department head Valery Goncharov. ``It was on Monday or Tuesday, and this is the last document needed before exports can begin. They could start soon -- tomorrow, the day after, or in a month -- whatever is needed.''

Goncharov said he did not know when talks on 1998 contracts between Russia and its clients would be held, adding that Almazjuvelirexport, Russia's sole PGM export agent, was responsible for setting up the negotiations.

Almazjuvelirexport was not immediately available for comment. Sergei Gorny, deputy director of Almazjuvelirexport, said on Tuesday the agency was still waiting for the government order, which was the final bureaucratic hurdle holding up exports.

Palladium fixed at a fresh 18-year high of $328.50 an ounce in London on Wednesday after touching $349.00 on the spot market in Asian trade earlier. The price rise was on concerns over extended delays in Russian supplies.

Russia supplies 60 percent of the world's palladium needs and one-fifth of its platinum demand. The rare white metals are used in applications ranging from dental equipment and jewellery to catalytic converters in cars.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 07:32 - ID#254201)
For the Quick and Nimble
Today Only - Buy May Silver 5.85 or better no stop, If June Gold opens below 308 look for 300.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 07:45 - ID#238295)
Watch the interplay between gold stocks and POG. Downturn was signalled when gold equities failed to follow POG higher on Moday. A reversal will be in the cards when they fail to follow POG lower.

I offered to bury the hatchet with RJ, but he still perists with his mixture of sense and nonsense. I will answer at an appropriate times.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 15 1998 07:45 - ID#347447)
APH, all
Concur on your gold view. Much below 307 on nearest futures will bring gold to support at 296 - 297. Anything below THAT and we're out of this "uptrend channel" on the downside. THAT would be sickening to gold bulls! Silveris forming a 2 1/2 month price "Rhino." The "horn" is in place at around 6.75. There could be more downside to silver for this formation to fully set up. But a move above 6.55 would signal a breakout from this pattern and would be very bullish. A short pullback from the horn tip such as it is now would be a good launcer for silver. Worst case pullback could go to 5.70 before a solid support line comes in.

A breakout beyond 6.55 would be particularly exciting if it came in the next couple of weeks. It would set up a lot of heat and light in Mid May when Jupiter conjuncts SSC Sun. This will be action for silver for sure. Question is will it be a low, or a spike up?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 07:59 - ID#45173)
@Rhody & jims
Rhody, you seem to have done serious research to arrive at your gold and silver stock selections. Are you familiar with a Canadian fund called BGR Precious Metals? I'd appreciate any insight you have on it...

jims, if you've been in precious metals for the past couple of years then, yes, you are not going to feel too wise. If the market had crashed during that time, then you'd not feel that way. But it didn't. I bet it wouldn't and stayed in until a couple of weeks ago, getting out then because I didn't have the stomach to ride it up to 10,000 or higher before the end of the year. Traders become more prone to over-reaction the higher the market goes, so the less likely I'll be able to get out with my shirt on. Getting into gold and silver once the DOW drop starts will be hard. It's a simple risk/reward decision. You get only marginal return at the top of a market but with ever greater risk. I am content to sit out the final 10% - 15% rise in the DOW and take my gold and silver profits when they peak, knowing this might take several years. There's little downside in gold now, but a lot of downside in the DOW. My advice to you is: patience, and don't beat yourself up because you missed what now looks to everyone like a great DOW investment opportunity that will soon enough look like a mass investment nightmare.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 08:15 - ID#377196)
Metals...hey guys, why do you all focus on the negatives, things are
gradually getting better. Why, just now my alarm went off on the CRB index, ( on the upside that is ) .

(Wed Apr 15 1998 08:30 - ID#243166)
I'm a new kid on the block and looking at BMG and/or SSC. Have some physical PMs, but want to get into mining stocks. Any opinions on these two? Should I be looking elsewhere? Judging from the bearishness here this AM, it is time to buy.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 15 1998 08:34 - ID#347447)
Dow 9500
Still think the top will be around 9500 - roughly the distance of the spike down last Fall above the breakout from the inverse head and shoulders of the last "correction." The NYSE balcony is getting awfully full these days. When it comes crashing down on the trading floor with all those smiling suits in it, the tulips will be ripe for picking. Anyone seen any mini-skirts lately?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 08:34 - ID#261118)
Niner (9'er?)
Was'nt it you who gave us instructions on changing our MTU string to "max" so as to speed up our internet speed? If so please post again for all to see. Itworks great but I can't show my friends how to do it!


Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 15 1998 08:42 - ID#347447)
Welcome Woody. You ain't seen nothin here. Wait til the Kitcoites start to devour each other like prehistoric reptiles in some antideluvian swamp ( or is it antipodean? ) . And that's on a day when nothing is happening in the markets.

I see SSC as a never expiring option on silver, but I guess most lowpriced silver shares will give you the same leverage. These years, SSC is the Blue Chip penny stock for silver. The big advantage here is that the CROWD knows SSC. All these wonderful little obscure silver companies kitcoites keep coming up with are simply wonderful, I'm sure. The analysis on this site is second to none. But when you just want to salt 'em away in expectation of higher prices ahead, SSC will come thru in a significant silver rally in its usual, plodding, effective way. It's liquid and popular. It WILL respond. Every few years you can literally double your stake with SSC if your timing is halfway decent. Just be patient. I am also lazy, and can do just so much analysis, etc, so I go for the no-brainers most of the time. Otherwise, keep reading here and you'll get lots of advice.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 09:02 - ID#284255)
Y2K links and why gold will go skyhigh
The Year 2000 Problem and the New Riddle of Induction

Year 2000 Conversion Services at John Deere

Date Compression and Year 2000 Challenges

Year 2000: Challenges, Solutions, and Implications for the Future

Working Smarter with Tools

Millennium Testing - A New Discipline Required

Put your foot down!

Prepare now for the year 2000

Government Warns Small Firms of Year 2000 Glitch

Not Preparing For Y2K? Your Company Will Pay The Price

Businesses should already have a recovery plan

Year 2000 Computer Crisis Offers HR Executives a Chance to Shine

Computer bug has global implications

Dr. Edward Yardeni Raises his Y2K Recession Prediction

Blair warns of economic chaos unless millennium bug is cured

Blair issues a call to arms
( requires free registration )

De Jager applauds Blair's millennium stance
( requires free registration )

Y2K: who will save developing world?

Bank boss fears global crash in 2000

Nuclear fears on millennium bug in Russia

Will the bug bite your wallet?

Engine flooded: GM's Y2K task may be too big

Y2K software failures here today

Firms already struck by millennium bug

Gov't Year 2000 Computer Failures Already Here - ITAA

Restaurants dish up solutions for year 2000 bug

Urban Planner Builds South Dakota Survival Colony: Escaping Year 2000 Crisis

Nowhere to hide from the year 2000

"We thought if it was Pentium, it would be OK"
3,000 State PCs get BIOS fix for date code error

Intel joins fight to limit Y2K-related suits

Go Looking For Trouble -- Year 2000 Problems Must Be Sought Out And
Addressed-And Not, As Some Lawyers Would Advise, Be Avoided At All Costs

The Ripple Effect

Y2K Ripple Effect

Europe's new currency to be a quagmire

Euro Conversion -- The Crisis Few People Are Talking About

Time to market a corporate condom
( requires free registration )

Business Insurance Articles on Risk and Y2K

Y2K: Turning the risks into a hard reality

A New Legal Target: The Millennium Bug

Year 2000 problems a lawyer's bonanza?

Macola Gets Slammed With Year 2000 Suit

Court cases boost Year 2000 credibility

Computer collapse may cause litigation quagmire

Microsoft knocked for Y2K efforts

Microsoft does the full monty on its Year 2000 Web site

One company yawns at Y2K bug,4,20780,00.html

Low-tech township gets a laugh at Year 2000 problem

Who's Driving The Bus? Y2K Accountability of Electric Utilities

Y2K: The Bug That Ate The Future

Al Gore's number could be up when computers balk at 2000

Years of living dangerously as fatwas fly for date guru
( requires free registration )

Who's who in the Year 2000 debate

2,000 Complications

De Jager Year 2000 divisor changed by splits

Dear CEO: Your Stock Options Will Soon Be Junk

Mutual fund firms warn investors of Y2K glitch

A Year 2000 Investment Strategy for the New Millennium

Investors abuzz over Millennium Bug,1575,ART-6132,00.html

Stock Exchange pressures firms for year 2000 update
( requires free registration )

Stockbrokers fret over testing times
( requires free registration )

2K or not 2K. That is the question.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 09:03 - ID#384350)
@DBog, When the Bubble Bursts
I feel that once the masses get an inkling that their digital, paper, checkbook, currency might not be safe in the banks for the year 2K, they will start to pull it out of the banks. The smart ones will try to buy gold/silver. The enlightened ones will have already done so.

Because of the fractional reserve system, a bank run will not be healthy. The Fed will have to loan massive amounts of money to these banks so that they can stay solvent. Their Reserve requirements are going to be so far below what is required by law, it ain't gonna be funny. The money supply ( at least in physical currency ) should explode. All this IMHO.

Spud Master
(Wed Apr 15 1998 09:07 - ID#273112)
@Intel reporting profits, BUT cutting 3,000 jobs???
Oh yea - ever'thing is jes fine, jes fine!

HOW MANY bloody PCs, VCRs, HDTVs, DVDs, Palm computer, cellular phones etc. can the public continue to buy over and over and over at $1,500, $3,000 a pop?

Everyone should take a long hard look at PC prices tending toward $500 for a complete system. The electronics industry is now "bottom feeding" on the lowest tier of consumers.

The days of easy money are over for the existing electronics industry paradigm of Intel-Microsoft-Motorolla.

Don't mind that ripping sound - it's just the fabric of the HMS dirigible DOW before it goes 'pop'.


(Wed Apr 15 1998 09:15 - ID#320376)
OK Sheller I'm a bigot
As a conservative fundamentalist, one of the things that really rankles me is when I find a homosexual, astrologer, or other abomination that happens to be an extremely nice person.

I enjoy your posts.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 09:16 - ID#334219)
RJ on BGR Precious
BGR Precious is an very well managed close edn gold utual funds. These are the Goodmans in Toronto. The fund is a proxy for investing in junior golds. It is currently trading near $C12. The 5 year low was in early 1993 at $5.25. The high was in 1996 just above $20. If you don't have the time to study the juniors and invest in your own selection, BGR Precious is your next best choice.

Spud Master
(Wed Apr 15 1998 09:16 - ID#273112)
@Easy solution to Year 2000 problem...
I, William "Blowjob" Clinton, by the authority I have taken, supported by by camp-followers/sycophants do declare that the United States shall reset our year to 1990 as of Dec 31, 1999.

This ten-year grace period is necessary to allow nation-wide Year 2000 software fixes to be incorporated and tested.

Furthermore, do to the extraordinary circumstances, I do hereby suspend the US Constitution for as long as shall be required to correct this threat to our Nation's security.

Pursuant to this, I hereby invoke the following existing Executive Orders:

E.O. 30236 Nationalization of Telecommunications
E.O. 30237 Nationalization of Banking, Savings & Loans and Credit Union
E.O. 30241 Suspension of Market trading
E.0. 30245 blah blah blah.....

Mike Stewart
(Wed Apr 15 1998 09:40 - ID#270253)
BGR Precious Metals
I have owned this one on and off since late 1992. It normally trades at a discount to Net Asset Value of about 20%. On rare occasions, when the PM's are very weak, you can get it at a 30% discount. During the last bull market, the discount went to zero as the market peaked. I bought a good sized chunk of this in January at a 30% discount.

BGR is something that the public buys. As a result, it lags the XAU. This gives you a little more time to get in.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 10:00 - ID#253246)
Mike Stewart SSRIF?
Any news on Silver Standard in Toronto

Mike Stewart
(Wed Apr 15 1998 10:05 - ID#270253)
Sorry, I know the stock, but have no news or insight into it.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 10:05 - ID#7568)

The largest engines of money creation in the world economy have been the US and the UK. Broad money growth supply in both these countries has been running around the 10% level. With nominal GDP growth coming in around the 6% level this leaves excess money creation somewhere around 4% per annum. Left unchecked, this is going to produce accelerating inflation in these economies.

The great counterforce to this surge in liquidity has been anemic money growth in the rest of Europe and Japan. This counterforce is now in the process of being removed and is probably beginning to act as another propellant to world growth.

During the year 1997, Japanese broad money supply grew at a pace right around the 3% level. With nominal GDP only slightly lower than this number, there was little if any, excess credit creation. In the first two months of 1998 there has been a surprising jump in broad money growth. Feb 98 has yoy M3 growing at around 4.8%. If the economy there is truely at or in recession, and inflation is falling to 0, then there is an awful lot of excess money getting created.

In France, broad money growth contracted for much of 1997. This too has changed radically over the past six months. As of the latest release, M3 in France is now growing around 4.5%. With EMU convergence causing a lowering of rates in the peripheral economies, there is more monetary stimulus in the pipeline.

The major drivers of the world economy are all producing credit growth ( money ) at rates far in excess of nominal GDP. This is the classic formula for inflation.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 10:08 - ID#25295)
seems to be holding on to highs? thoughts

(Wed Apr 15 1998 10:23 - ID#230376)
@ Mike Sheller....

No aruement from me about DOW 9500...but watch your S&P chart 'cause if they don't take out the high before expiration day...IT'S OVER ..IMNSHO. Would then look for 1055 for support.
Why do "they" call that a "correction?'' Does that mean that the Market was wrong to begin with ?
P.S. Really dig your writings! GO GOLD!!!!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 10:27 - ID#348129)
The growth in money supply with no inflation is astonishing.
How long can this continue?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 10:34 - ID#230376)
@ Mo.....
There you go again, believing the GOVT. With the money supply M1-2-3 growing at 7% in January alone, the REAL inflation # should be 6% annualized. Oh,If only the peopleO would realize what the truth really is ! No reflection on you my friend !

Mike Stewart
(Wed Apr 15 1998 10:38 - ID#270253)
Comparing 1Q93 to 1Q98
I was looking at my charts to see how we were sitting relative to the last bull market in Gold shares ( 1993 ) . This is not a scientific study, just casual observation. We had a "W" bottom in the XAU on Nov 22/92 and Jan 18/93. A similar pattern took place this year with the "W" bottom on Dec 9/97 and Jan 12/98. By looking at April 93, we had some hesitation after the XAU rose about 45%. It stopped for a couple of weeks, then rose by another 50% or so into May.

The XAU pattern for 1998 is very similar to 1993. If it holds, the XAU should hold around these levels and explode upward over the next month.
We shall see. The next month will be critical.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 10:38 - ID#20135)
Now this shows how the pen is mightier than reality...
``Yes, he ( Kiriyenko ) signed the government order,'' said Gokhran department head Valery Goncharov. ``It was on Monday or Tuesday, and this is the last document needed before exports can begin. They could start soon -- tomorrow, the day after, or in a month -- whatever is needed.''

Goncharov said he did not know when talks on 1998 contracts between Russia and its clients would be held, adding that Almazjuvelirexport, Russia's sole PGM export agent, was responsible for setting up the negotiations.

Almazjuvelirexport was not immediately available for comment. Sergei Gorny, deputy director of Almazjuvelirexport, said on Tuesday the agency was still waiting for the government order, which was the final bureaucratic hurdle holding up exports. "


ARe they sure???

It was on Monday or Tuesday...

They could start soon -- tomorrow, the day after, or in a month -- whatever is needed.

( Hay guys you don't realize that a $47 dollar rise in a few hours means folks need it NOW? )

Almazjuvelirexport was not immediately available for comment.

Goncharov said he did not know when talks on 1998 contracts between Russia and its clients would be held,...

Sergei Gorny, deputy director of Almazjuvelirexport, said on Tuesday the agency was still waiting for the government order...


And this solid story set the market right! Prey tell, shy don't they tell us why Russia has not exported enough palladium to keep prices at year ago levels if everything is so OK.

Is this a buying opportunity? Or should money stay in the more solid DOW? Look at the fundamentals not the PR.


Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 10:42 - ID#384350)
Smokers Give us a Break
I took the train on Monday. I went to the Restaurant car to get a beer. I passed through the smoking cars where I saw several kids of around 7 years old sitting with their parents in a smoke filled car.

What kind of liberty is there in imposing addiction, ill health effects, and poison to someone else. I don't care what you smoke at home or in your private clubs, but as long as you don't harm others.

How would you like it if someone used your front door as a urinal? How would you like it if someone put carcinogens in your food or water? How would you like it if someone put a nuclear plant 10 miles up the river from where you call home? What kind of liberty is that? Isn't it rather a form of tyranny?

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 10:44 - ID#384350)
Avid Trader web site predicts ultimate high on Dow at 9180
The End is Nigh!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 10:50 - ID#373403)
Gold coins
Are gold coins which have become scuffed and lost their premium available for purchase at spot? Does anyone have these?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 10:57 - ID#20135)
These markets are paper driven...

Gold 17,000
Silver 16,000
H.G. Copper 12,000


0 0 33,795,629
879,790 0 55,192,853
879,790 0 88,988,482

warehouse stocks:
GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

475,158 0 0 0 0 475,158
159,146 0 0 0 0 159,146
634,304 0 0 0 0 634,304

COMEX Gold Warehouse Stocks

warehouse stocks:
GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
321,832 0 0 0 321,832
156,258 89,484 0 89,484 0 245,742
478,090 89,484 0 89,484 0 567,574

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

321,832 0 0 0 0 321,832
245,742 0 0 0 0 245,742
567,574 0 0 0 0 567,574

warehouse stocks:
n GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
321,832 0 0 0 0 321,832
245,742 0 0 0 0 245,742
567,574 0 0 0 0 567,574

warehouse stocks:
GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

321,832 0 0 0 0 321,832
245,742 0 0 0 0 245,742
567,574 0 0 0 0 567,574


And this unchanged level in eligible stocks statyed until


warehouse stocks:
GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

321,832 0 0 0 0 321,832
245,742 0 0 0 0 245,742
567,574 0 0 0 0 567,574

warehouse stocks:
GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

321,832 0 104 -104 89,480 411,208
245,742 3,212 0 3,212 -89,480 159,474
567,574 3,212 104 3,108 0 570,682


Look at the eligible numbers yourself. Compare march 25th numbers with April 14th's. Now compare April 14th's with March 26th's.

159,146 for April 14th and 159,474 for March 26th.

Look at the fundementals NOT the PR.

Maybe the dip buying should be in the pm's.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 11:01 - ID#324266)
I think that any chart of the DJIA for the last 18 months expresses inflation very plainly. The monetary supply is no longer inflated with the printing press, but with the keyboard.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 11:01 - ID#153102)
How would you like it if someone imposed their irrationality on you by force. Tobacco is nuclear ? Tobacco is poison ? Tobacco is like urine ?
Imposing addiction ?
As far as I am concerned, you are as nutty as a Nazi.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 11:04 - ID#230376)
@Gianni and all...

chew on this site for a while.. It dispells the mushroom effect. Go Gold and a pox on the DOW !!!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 11:16 - ID#31868)
mozel - tobacco can be added to the list eh. Yeah, there is always some
individual that knows whats best. I think if you drive a foreign car, listen to Mozart and use Gleem toothpaste you should be shot.

Those are my rules of the day. On a different whim I shall choose fair skinned Nordic types that manufacture Volvos, ski and drink brandy, and on that day public dunking in unset jello will be the penalty.

Where will it end, under a mass collective, a series of thoughts that are determined to be best for the homogenized brain dead.

Give me free right to choose or a ticket to a truly free planet.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 11:16 - ID#22956)
Knee *Jerks*....
This reaction to news of the Russians FINALLY signing a paper to deliver metal and not actually delivering the metal is quite ammusing. That it spanked Plat this a.m. because of it is not. That they don't actually know when they will deliver is. They are a sneaky lot those Russhies. I will it benefit them to announce something like this driving DOWN prices.....why not just put the metal on the market and have the opp to sell at VERY high prices?? These Rooooskies are not yet done playing their 'tricks'. I wonder how this will play out. Hmmmmmm.....comments and/or speculations are *required* at Kitco TODAY. Ya' all here me??!? Now, get to it! And keep searching for the blonde chick....I think she has ALL the Platinum.....Find her-Find Plat! Moscow...


Farfel...that was a good post you made last night. Just ONE question, how do you get to Hollywood from Bel-Air? If you don't buy oil then do you have one of those electric cars? No disrespect intended F* sir. I just want to know if you drive a fossil fuel car...And how is your house lighted?? And how is your pool heated?? I hope I am not opening a LARGE can-o-worms here....I just get curious sometimes... ( uh huh ) . I Don't Care...I Bought ONE Mountie....IDCIBOM..... ;- )

(Wed Apr 15 1998 11:23 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Ahhhh! Good to be back again.
EB -- Watchin' the grains the last couple days? I do believe they ARE on their way, finally. Only a day or two later than when I thought they might bottom. ( Not that bottoming is a fact yet, of course. Only Cherokee knows that. ) I figure someone misplaced a bushel or two.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 11:29 - ID#213265)
@the scene
I wonder how many things we could put on the 'sin' tax list. Let's see: fuels, as polluting is a sin, like cigarettes.
Bullets, as they can cause more immediate damage.
Cars, as they have also been known to be an instrument of destruction.
Alcohol, for sure....
All forms of chemicals.

When you start, you just cannot stop!!!!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 11:29 - ID#230376)
@ F* ....
Did you know that the Earth in it's natural state spews more crude on a daily basis than the Exxon Valdez ? Love ya ,guy!
...And most of your posts...IDCIBM ...Go GOLD!!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 11:33 - ID#24864)
Looks like it has filled and bounced off the gap it left last week.
Now... higher or re test ? Happy trading

(Wed Apr 15 1998 11:34 - ID#251268)
Copper? whats the news,
up like pallaidium!! well almost,a very big move for the blue collar brother,anybody know why?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 11:41 - ID#251268)
sorry forr sp

(Wed Apr 15 1998 11:42 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Most people will go ahead and allow the government to impose very sever taxation on many many 'legal' products, for their 'own good'. HAR! They don't seem to realize that these same 'arguments' can be made against most every product they either use or consume on a daily basis. How about hamburgers and fries? Are they particularly 'good' for you? I think they can add to ones obesity, which may be at least as dangerous to ones health condition as smoking may be. I think a 'sin' tax needs to be imposed on them to keep the kids from becoming obese. See? These arguments can be imposed upon anything.
Notice how congress and the president have already spent the cigarette 'sin' tax money. Another HAR!!! That's what this is all about since they will certainly be hard pressed in continuing to raise income taxes, though don't be expecting anything else anyway. When they have spent all that, further attention WILL be put on other 'sin' tax impositions. Count on it!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 11:56 - ID#22956)
Eldo and stuff long SN8 and hitching to buy a wee bit go ( golden ) grains. ohmy ( ! ) . The seasonal looks to have come in late this year ( got in early ) ....yup.
IDCIBOM. the grind

I want to see copious discussion regarding the Moscow vs. Metals....and I want it TODAY ( ! ) ......right Bart? where's me mountie? ;- ) go plat.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 12:02 - ID#345176)
@ Gianni Dioro on smoking

News for you, the tobacco industry some years ago when it was accused for the 500 different carcinogens used in cigarettes, replied:

"All these carcinogens used in cigarettes are FDA approved and all are also used by the food industry"

Suggestion: Stop eating.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 12:04 - ID#324266)
JSE All Gold Index down 0.74% to 935.
The JSE is a distant relative of The Kimberley Stock Exchange, which was established in 1881 after the discovery of diamonds in Kimberley. In 1886 gold was discovered in the Witwatersrand basin, which has been mined for more than 100 years and is still the greatest known source of unmined gold on the planet. RSA is the planet's most expensive gold producer partly because of deep mines and exceptionally hard ore. Its gold is miles deep and the ore grades have deteriorated with the increased depths.

Charles Keeling
(Wed Apr 15 1998 12:04 - ID#344225)
@ THE SCENE RE: Platinum & Palladium

Just in case you haven't read this AM report

on Platinum & Palladium.........

Palladium Market


Price Exceeds


Price more than

doubles in a year


Palladium surged,

reaching an 18-year high

in the cash market and

rising above gold for the

first time since the

downfall of fixed

exchange rates, as a

delay in Russian exports

continued to keep

supplies tight.

The spot price for

palladium was at $328.05

a troy ounce late in New

York, up $34.05. Earlier

in the day, it reached


Spot gold was at $308.25

an ounce, below

palladium for the first

time since the collapse

of the Bretton Woods

accord in 1971, which

ended the pegging of

major currencies against

the U.S. dollar.

At the New York

Mercantile Exchange,

the June palladium

contract pushed higher

by $9 to $287.05 an


"We're still waiting to

hear from the Russians.

They said the first week

of April. The first week

is gone. We still don't

know anything," said

George Gero, senior

vice president of

investments at

Prudential Securities in

New York.

Palladium shipments

from Russia, which

supplied 56.6% of the

world's palladium in

1997, are being held up

by a delay to

government approval of

export contracts for

platinum group metals.

In 1997, Russia didn't

sign those contracts until

the second half of the


"There's no sign of an

abatement in the

Russian showdown and

supplies are getting

tight," said Adrian

Lismore, vice president

of metals, mining and

commodity derivatives

at Bankers Trust New

York. "When palladium

trades above gold, that's

certainly something to

be looked at."

Mr. Lismore said the

lapse in supplies has led

some consumers to look

at other metals.

"Consumers are

effectively turning to

other metals where they

possibly can," he said.

"You're basically down

to crunch time here and

people need the metal.

You're in a very limited

market of supply

concentrated in one

geographical sector."

Aran Murphy, senior

economist at the

Platinum Guild

International Inc., an

industry trade

organization in New

York, said consumers

could use nickel or

platinum instead of

palladium. Palladium is

used in electronics and

for catalytic converters.

"Consumers of

palladium are certainly

having a look at

alternative metals for

substitution. On the

lower end, they are

looking at

less-expensive metals

like nickel, and on the

higher end they are

looking at platinum,"

Mr. Murphy said.

However, he said such

substitutions won't affect

prices yet.

"Substitutions aren't

likely to occur at such a

rapid pace," Mr.

Murphy said. "The

substitution effects are

going to be longer term

as opposed to Russian

shipments which, in the

more near term, will

bring the prices down

more rapidly."

The Wall Street Journal,

April 15, 1998

(Wed Apr 15 1998 12:05 - ID#230376)
@ Myrmidon....

can we breathe , yet?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 12:13 - ID#210235)
@the war on tobacco
The way I see it, what with the cold war being over and all, people are likely to look at that big, expensive anachronism of a government and say "well what the heck are we paying all that money over there for?". Just sort of in our monthly budgeting process, we might say, well we don't need to pay for that big federal government anymore. Let's send Gil Amelio in there to slash and burn. We could get much better service for 10% of the cost. We are in the habit of seeking value for our money. The cold war is over. So the Fed finds a new war to keep us off balance and arguing and picking fights with one another. If they can convince us that we're all trying to kill one another, with second-hand smoke, guns, drugs, or bombs, then they can justify their continued expansion. Expansion = more money. Taxes. The force.

Just realizing that 90% of what they're doing is trying to make all of us scared of one another to allow them to control everything everybody does ( so the guy next door doesn't kill me! ) , can hopefully provide a filter, sunglasses if you will, through which you can view their many WARS.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 12:16 - ID#270247)

I guess it is only right for the discussion to turn to taxes today. I was wondering if anyone here had any idea how many separate taxes England was burdoning the colonies with in 1776 and how many Americans have to pay today? Just off the top of my head we've got Income Tax, Property Tax, Sales Tax ( except here in Oregon although they'll be trying another run at it again soon ) , Gas Tax, Cigarette Tax, Luxury Taxes, Several Telecommunications Taxes, Social Security Tax ( being 27 I never expect to actually see any of the SS I pay again money again ) , plus all the fee's and other charges we have to pay whenever we actually try and use a government service.

I'm sure there are many more. I just have to wonder when the American people are going to get fed up and start throwing tea into the bay again. It's because of these taxes that I have become interested in gold. I don't have to report any gain or how much of it I have to the IRS ( at least for now ) .


(Wed Apr 15 1998 12:26 - ID#238422)
EB/your 11:16
Dear EB ( every time I see your handle, I have fun, you know
why ) , Russikies are not worried about price drop because
most of their metals, which will be delivered in some time,
are ALREADY sold at the specified price to the certain parties.

I thought it should be clear to everybody. Those who should
worry are traders overseas, who SPECULATE. It is not Russkies
game, my friend, it's THEIR GAME. They use Russkies for cover.
I am astonished you guys can not understand such simple thing.

When Russkies dump metals from time to time on the spot market,
you will hear nothing, no statements, etc. You will just see
price plummeting a little. But they dump only extras, not
contract ( CONTRACT - means price is already specified ) metals.

Hope it helps to locate game players.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 12:27 - ID#345176)
@ KJR - you forgot some taxes..

Death tax,
excise tax,
inheritance tax,
airport landing tax,
import duty tax,
social security tax,
medicare tax,

I stop here before I get depressed.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 12:27 - ID#320376)
Cheesecake tax
Yes, indeed, if obesity is "bad" for you, it is certainly time to impose a cheesecake tax.

WARNING: The surgeon general has determined that consumption of this here cheesecake may cause obesity.

I think it is time for a tax credit for anyone who can document having eaten their weight in carrots during the tax year.

Relationship to gold? Well, the government decided the dollar is valuable, and enforces that, as opposed to letting the people decide what is valuable. When the government retreats from its artificially expanded roles, we may find it has an effect on PM prices.

Just don't touch my Social Security!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 12:36 - ID#57232)
Cryo bottoming, Europe on rebound? Computer stocks recovering?
All: Looks like the Cryo is about to head up. Was told the JCI is a better indicator than Cryo, and that was heading up too -- Kaplan?

Food for thought, since last post still in aether: European markets on rebound post budget balancing antics for EURO launch? Very likely. European money supplies will now loosen up to boost the European markets and economies -- bullish for gold and US markets too.

Everyone notice that Hewlett - Packard took off today after months of nothing? Seagate went up yesterday, too. My guess is that computer stocks have finally bottomed -- at least for the next few months.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 12:37 - ID#270247)
Sorry didn't meen to get you down.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 12:40 - ID#31868)
One more time, I am telling you people to
LOOK AT TAN RANGE EXPLORATION - TNX - in Canada, don't say I did not tell you. Buy it shake and stir for 60-90 days, take profits.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 12:44 - ID#20135)
On around January 12th this year the Dow wa below 7500 intraday. Today the Dow has reached 9145+ intraday.

Let's see, I think that is over 1645 points in roughly 3 months. 19.3 % in three months, 1 quarter.

DOW bulls are looking at 10,790 in July ( I guess ) ; 12,435 in October; and 14,080 in Jan 1999. WOW! Ain't life wonderful in the U.S.

NOW, what is wrong with this picture???


AS several people have been pointing out. The U.S., Britain, ...

are printing paper currency and creating electronic paper like there is no tomorrow. For the moment all these currecies are chasing paper stocks, BUT ... I smell a sea change.

Look at the fundamentals, don't listen to the PR.

Look at what items cost you at the grocery, ..., don't just let the government tell you milk is cheaper ( WOW! look at that that price compared to a couple of years ago. Look at the price of your paper compared to 4 years ago. )

BUY low sell high. BUYING at the nose bleed levels of the DOW is exciting but ... well we have been through this drill.


pm's looking good ( buy the dips take delivery )


(Wed Apr 15 1998 12:49 - ID#31868)
The electronic bank runs will make the paper bank runs look rosy by
comparrison. People not holding gold and silver will get trashed. READ the speech by Yardini - the word HOLIDAY was used and tells me where Y2K is headed in the minds of the political dirtbags.

First the holiday, then THEIR solution. Whoopee! You are broke. Whoopee!

First fear will set in, then the paper and electronic bank runs, add a pinch of Y2K...Whoopee! You are broke...

(Wed Apr 15 1998 12:51 - ID#316232)
Today should be one of joy and celebration for what your taxes have done for you:

Taxes pay for:

Military -- so you have a nation of freedom to buy gold

Teachers -- to make you smart enough to buy gold.

Police -- to protect your gold from bad guys

Local govt taxes -- so you have someone to keep order

Propery tax -- so there are schools so teachers can teach

Gas tax -- So there are roads so you can drive to the gold store.

Telephone sales tax -- so there is an internet so you can trade gold

Income tax -- so we can pay politicians' to make laws about gold.

Inheritance tax -- when you die someone else can take care of your gold.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 12:58 - ID#57232)
Thoughts about how to make a strong Eurocurrency
D.A. Thanks for your post. I have said before that I thought you were right about commodity prices going up, and the recent Euro market rally confirms one major source -- Europe.

Q: How does one make a strong Euro, now that European budget balancing antics are behind them, and credit can be loosened a bit? Inflationary effects will not filter back to the 'fiat' currencies for at least a year, I would guess -- though effects on commodities/gold are likely to occur sooner.

A: The best way to make the EURO strong with commodity prices and gold prices rising would be to announce that the EURO is backed by say 30% internal and external reserves, and the gold has already been purchased. Reevaluing gold reserves at current market prices would be fair game. The only problem is how to announce this in some low-key manner, so that any short-term market correcting effects are minimal.

The big SEASsia debt problem is probably a non-issue now, as I would guess that the solution will be to roll the debt over into some new debt issue, as it was done over twenty years ago the last time the SEAsian markets melted down. So the european markets have been saved, with the price being inflation a few years from now.

The only wild cards I see in the above scenario would be a world-wide crisis of some kind, which generally also would be bullish for gold, unless it were from a Japan implosion, with associated gold sales. Unlikely, but possible, given the stranglehold of the Yakuza.

Those of you who grumble about the US economy/government being riddled with corruption should think about Russia and Japan for comparison. We may have problems in the US, but others have it worse.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:00 - ID#28994)
I am glad I don't have to explain to a man from outer space why each day I set fire to dozens of little pieces of paper' and then put them in my mouth.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:02 - ID#31868)
all that glitter is not gold, go and check out
ITRO on NASDAQ - right now a teeny, tiny penny the future it will be a monster. When people finally figure out what these folks are up to in silver this stock will explode.

Tree huggers love them and so will silverbugs...

(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:09 - ID#410198)
Gianni-Dioro...sure hope you were kidding...a threat to your nose is threat to everyones FREEDOM..
pick one

(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:11 - ID#340459)
Reuters News Story - Japan swimming in liquidity - Somebody should advise them to invest in PM's
By Hans-Joerg Naumer, economist in foreign exchange and
fixed income research at Societe Generale in Frankfurt
FRANKFURT, April 15 ( Reuters ) - In the past week the Bank of
Japan has confirmed its intention to keep to its policy
of low interest rates.
The reason is the interesting part of this: the record low
level in key interest rates is intended to enable the economy to
find its way back to "self-sustaining growth."
In fact though Japan is absolutely swimming in money and is
caught in a "liquidity trap."
Neither investment nor consumption has been stimulated by
the low interest rates and even the economic packages that have
been put into effect produced only one-off effects. The causes
must lie elsewhere -- in the Pacific basin and in the financial
markets in the western hemisphere.
Since the BoJ introduced the turnaround in interest rates in
1990/91 and lowered its discount rate from a record high of six
percent to 0.5 percent by the end of 1995, money market interest
rate spreads compared with neighbouring countries moved further
and further apart.
At the same time the claims of foreign banks on countries
like Thailand, Indonesia, Korea, the Philippines and Singapore
increased significantly. The cheap money from Japan was
obviously being invested in Asia.
While Japan is caught in the liquidity trap, the glut in the
Japanese yen was close to a peak in the Pacific basin. According
to Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ) figures, Japan is
the most important financial provider in the region. The problem
is that the majority of the investments have maturities of one
year and less.
Japan's financial links do not stop in Asia. For example, it
is one of the largest investors in U.S. Treasuries. This
recycling helped to finance the growing current account
imbalance in the USA and thanks to the high capital supply kept
yields low.
Is it not possible that the "liquidity pump," Japan, is
partly responsible for the high liquidity in financial markets
world-wide? What if the money tap on the island state were
turned off too quickly?
Does this explain Alan Greenspan's apparent change of heart
when he talked of worries about "asset price inflation" in one
of his closely watched speeches, although his recent statements
seem to have had a more calming influence on the equities
The connection with past "irrational exuberance" only works
if one considers the consequences of a collapse in stock prices
in the U.S.
If it really should come to repatriations from Japan, yields
in the United States will rise and the liquidity shortage will
endanger stock prices.
( Unrealised ) profits in the equities market are, however,
decisive for strong private consumer confidence. Private
consumers feel rich with their paper profits and finance their
present consumption with future transactions as the
savings-income-ratio and consumer credit proves.
A liquidity drain back to Japan could quickly dry out
financial markets particularly in the U.S. and Europe and take
the drive out of U.S. growth, one of the most important economic
motors in the world.
This way of looking at the situation helps us to understand
the gap between Greenspan's sensational speech at the end of
1996 and the more moderate tones of recent months. He is now
hoping that the effects of the Asian crisis will cool down the
U.S. economy and the overheated financial markets.
Fundamentally nothing has changed since Greenspan's
"irrational exuberance" speech. Shares and bonds have reached
new record levels and price/earnings ratios have risen further
above the average of the last few years.
The PER for the whole US equities market is currently 26.4
( average since January 1990: 18.2 ) and for the German equities
market it is 23.4 ( 16.8 )
If we look at risk premiums, calculated from the difference
between stock and bond PERs in the individual markets, a
significant discrepancy between the German and the American
market becomes obvious.
The current risk premium in the U.S. market ( calculated
using market-wide indices ) is 8.3 percent points, significantly
higher than the historical average ( 3.5 percent ) , calculated
from the beginning of 1990 to the present.
In the German market the current premium of 2.8 percent is
only slightly above the average of 2.45 percent despite earnings
estimates with a more solid basis.
In both cases it must be taken into account that the present
low yields influence the evaluation.
Rising interest rates and/or a downward revision of earnings
forecasts make the U.S. equities market susceptible to a
What was it again that the Fed boss said last March: "If you
look at a normal pricing model for stocks, what you get is a not
unreasonable level of prices if the earnings forecasts...are
accurate." If this is not the case, it is a question of a bubble
which will quickly burst if the liquidity stream slows.
The total picture thus presents a "global soft landing," a
slow shift in the right direction, accompanying the real
economic recovery in Asia and trying to prevent greater
fluctuations in the financial markets. The Bank of Japan appears
to be fitting in with this scenario.
///The opinions expressed in this column represent the views
of the author alone, and should not be seen as representing the
views of Reuters. The translation from the German language was
carried out by Reuters.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:22 - ID#31868)
Well, at least someone remembers their oath of office...
Paraguayan executed in Virginia despite international pleas
Copyright  1998
Copyright  1998 The Associated Press

Paraguayan government silent, but citizens deplore U.S. execution
JARRATT, Va. ( April 15, 1998 12:25 p.m. EDT ) -- A Paraguayan man who stabbed a woman to death was executed Tuesday night despite requests by Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and the World Court that the sentence be blocked.

The 15-member United Nations Tribunal ruled last week that the execution should be blocked because Virginia authorities failed to notify Paraguay of Angel Francisco Breard's arrest as required by an international treaty, the Vienna Convention.

Breard, 32, was executed by injection shortly after Gov. Jim Gilmore refused to stop the sentence from being carried out.

Gilmore said delay of the execution "would have the practical effect of transferring responsibility from the courts of the commonwealth and the United States to the International Court."

(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:24 - ID#230216)
Brother Oris....(if I may use brother) ;-)
Thank you for the info. That logic cannot be penetrated sir. btw, no harm meant with the 'russkies' talk. I dig all peopleos, yes I do. Russkies or Rooskies just sounds so cool. OK. Now, brother Oris, where from here? Perhaps you and your brother John can help out. Much appreciated in advance.
away...from the grind

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:26 - ID#384350)
I think my points are valid and rational. I know there are carcinogens in the water. I know many people live close to nuclear power plants. I know people breathe in bad air from cigarettes or car exhausts or factories. So many people are subject to these things against their own free will, and all these examples are of someone exercising their own Liberty to the detriment of someone else. It is tyranny. Cigarette smoking is a vile addiction. Don't confuse me for a Nazi. I am a Libertarian.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:28 - ID#339274)
FWIW time to take profits

(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:28 - ID#269409)
@ RJ...I'm quite saddened....and will now lurk "for a time...YES?"
Re your 21:39 of last evening. It's disheartening to see the forum lose such valuable contributions, as yours. Just today someone posts the amazing crossing of Palladium over POG, something only YOU considered a possibility a few months ago. And we need only look back a few months to when POG was much higher, and Platinum much lower. Your calls came to pass on those.

When I read the posts of a certain "F" word, and how he even to this day is incapable of reading the "plain Enlish" message of your posts..... you, one of the few objective voices on the forum...and when I read all the outcries of those who would much prefer shadows to substance....well, then like you, I realize the time has come for me to become a "lurker" once again. After all, the "LGB" does have the "lurk" word as part of the moniker, YES?

I enjoyed the discourse here, when there were mutiple points of view, and some give and take. This is how any objective, rational, reasonable person sorts through various ideas, and analysis. The "Two sides of a ( GOLD ) coin" have now become blurred into mostly a single monotonous note, rather than a diverse symphony of beautiful sound.....

This being the case, and seeing that objective reasoned and SUCCESSFUL market trader voices like yours, Karlito's, Realistic's, Oldman's, and others who were quite valued here are disappearing.....The time has come for my voice to disappear as well, such that the forum can become more the "Gold is our IDOL" club, rather than analyst/investor forum it was for a time.

To those who would deride our decisions in this, I shan't presume to speak for you, but for me, this is not out of any personal offense taken by some of the more feenle minded comments's more of a philosophical understanding of knowing when it's time to move on to pastures where more challenging exchanges can take place. Who can grow in a place where most minds seek only teachers who will tickle their own ( non biting ) ears, with that which they want to hear?

Ahh yes, I'll lurk here now and then as well. Much valuable and informative information passes through the halls of Kitco. Those of us who seek after truth, will avail ourselves of every valuable resource. But editorial debate, has become an exercise in futility here. Just for fun, I thought that my final post ( for a time ) might include a sampling of bandwidth chewing retropective posts, a couple o' yours, a couple o mine, a couple at random, and a couple from a certain, much vaunted, credentialed, much published "guru" that came before ANOTHER.

Apologies to all for the length, these are a few progostications, from the past, just to set the record a bit straight...I will be gone for a LONG time, YES?? ( YES!! ) No hard feelings though Kitcoites, it's a fine day, I'm in a good mood ( though saddened by RJ's departure ) , and the metals are tempting me to "buy" on dips....YES??

Onward to retropsectives, not in any order, just a sampling......

Date: Fri Mar 13 1998 20:21
RJ ( ..... Deja Vu all over again ..... ) ID#411150:
Copyright  1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

I went back to some of my old posts. I remembered speculating that palladium could top gold soon. After
reading the post, it seemed strangely appropriate to the PGM situation today. Got no time to edit, got a date. The
post in its entirety from 6/5/97 ( this was only my third or fourth post to this group, I have mellowed some
since then, my proofreading is still sadly lacking ) .


For those of you turned off by my typos in the previous postings, What can I say? I was on a roll. Who has time
to proofread? Stream of consciousness posting. If you had trouble reading my gold ditty ( I did ) Ill repost a
coherent version. Enough looking back! Forward. Did you like my info? My clients did. Tens of thousands in
profits in four hours today. Spot Platinum $18, out at $440, missed a couple bucks at the top but look for a
pullback tomorrow. Time to do it again will be next week. Palladium bounced off $200 like a cement floor.
Where is the weakness there? My $204 looked pretty good at $227 in London overnight. Strong support in New
York today. Gap up tomorrow in palladium. Lease rates have reached 300%. The Russian government has
suspended all fuel shipments to Norilsk. How will long suffering miners dig ore, process ore, and smelt ore with
no fuel? Do you think this move was designed to drive palladium to new highs? Only the Russians have
consistently demonstrated the finesse required to simply talk a market up or down. Dare I say, palladium has an
outside chance of going higher than gold?? Those of us with the courage of our convictions are riding a
righteous crest unmindful of the remaining doubts of risk gnawing the bones of our more sensible selves. Not
since Tyson Foods teamed up with Hillary have industrial traders had such rotten luck.

They heard me in the silver pits and responded nicely with an 11 cent trading day. Did anyone cover your gold
at $339.50? Look for a bounce in sympathy with the PGMs and sell it into the basement anywhere above $346.
Dont fight the central banks. They are your friends. Do what they do. Its easy.

Date: Thu Nov 13 1997 16:53
Puetz (>> ) ID#170235:
Don't make too much out of the DJIA rally today. The Dow Transports were down -18 points, the Dow Utilities
down -.14. There were more declining issues than advancing issues on all 3 markets: on the NYSE 60 more
decliners, on the Amex 120 more decliners, on the OTC 360 more decliners.
The London market also broke into new lows today.

In other words, this was an extremely weak rally. Don't expect much follow-through tomorrow. It's nothing
more than a bear market rally. The stock market crash is still on course.

Date: Thu Jan 08 1998 19:42
Puetz ( ) ID#222167:
Crystal Ball: Monday is important, that's because it's a full-moon -- six weeks before a solar eclipse. The last
time we had a 6-week topping patten at the full-moon, stocks crashed in Asia. With the 6-week top now
complete on the S&P 500 index, the crash is ready to progress. A tremendous collapse to somewhere between
2000 and 5000 on the DJIA will probably take place during January.

The New Year rally has already failed. A break in Hong Kong to below 9000 will be another important
confirmation. Also, if Tokyo breaks below 14,000 that will be another nail in the coffin of the bull. I believe
they will all take place soon.

Date: Thu Jan 08 1998 18:16
Realistic ( COMEX DATA ) ID#410194:
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after trading today:

Gold: Fell 1621 troy ounces to 479,135

Silver: Fell 23,001 troy ounces to 110,581,971 Just above a 13 year low

Quite a day in the metals today and indications are quite strong that we are living the very last days of a huge
transition phase that will give them a new direction.

Date: Fri Jan 09 1998 22:14
Puetz ( ) ID#222167:
Crystal Ball: This week was nothing in US stocks. Wait until next week , and the week after. 2 or 3 days of the
DJIA down more than 1000 point is to be expected. The period between a full- moon and a new- moon is
historically negative for a bubble- market - - once it bursts.

The full- moon on monday will be the start of the greatest stock market crash of all time.

Date: Wed Jan 21 1998 17:45
RJ ( ..... Silver History ..... ) ID#411259:

All -

Since I trade both sides of the market, I am more concerned with volatility than direction. Up, down, all the
same to me. Don't like sideways much though. Since silver is inherently more volatile than the other metals,
most of my short term trading is done in silver.

Date: Fri Jan 23 1998 15:53
RJ ( ..... Go Gold ..... ) ID#411259:

The world is a funny place. You wake up one morning and everything has changed. As one of the most
vehement gold bears on this forum, I have had plenty of harsh words for gold.

No more.

I like it. I think the downside is just a retest of the lows around $280. I think it is much more likely that gold
will rally. I'm not calling for an explosion, but I would like to add my voice to those that say the bottom is in.

Date: Thu Nov 13 1997 21:22
 ( New Bottom Today...Holy Manipulation, Batman!! ) ID#2082:
So...Gold set a NEW bottom today...307.9...

Is the opinion NOW that THIS is a new bottom? Will gold now skyrocket from here? Can it go lower? Is NOW
the time to buy?

Date: Fri Jan 23 1998 16:05
LGB ( @ RJ...No mystery to Gold's big move ) ID#269409:
Come now RJ, there's nothing mysterious to Gold's big move. It obviously is a direct response to one "LGB"
shift from Gold Bear to Gold Bull for the first time in 17 years, after which Gold, and Gold shares have
performed spectacularly well!

Date: Mon Feb 09 1998 14:21
LGB ( @ Realistic ) ID#269409:
I agree with your post that for now, we've seen the best flurry of bullish activity in silver, that we'll see for
quite awhile. It's time for a slow base building correction process as the WB hype fades away.

If you believe the coin and bullion dealers, silver sellers were coming out of the woodwork last week to umload
their hoarded 1980 purcahses of "junk" coin and bullion bars. The weak hands who couldn't bear to sell at a
"loss" are now selling at a "loss" ( when you factor in inflation, their $8.00 to $10.0, 1980 silver would have to
rise to $16 to $20 for them to "break even" not even accounting for the fact that their investment dollars would
have made 1000% gains in equities in the interim )

now does this "little guy" divesting, influence the market or is it a mere drop in the bucket? Will we see
COMEX inventory rise as the smelters refine this influx, or will it be inconsequential?

IMHO, we'll see silver drop back into the $6.50 region, and behave much more tamely for the next few months
as it build a solid base well above it's previous multi year trading range of $4.00 to $5.00. Thus, those who
weren't savvy enough to buy in when many of us were screaming "fundamentals" will still have their shot at

Date: Tue Feb 17 1998 14:30
OLD GOLD ( silver ) ID#238295:
Fundamentalist: If you will recall RJ -- one of the best analysts on this site -- recently wanrned against plunging
into silver after the big runnup. Heed him next time.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:30 - ID#218382)
SouthernEra Resources - Down 27%
Any news on this company? Most Canadian mines dare doing ok but this one started going in the toilet yesterday.

What is your most useful link for gathering news articles on mining companies?

Is it significant when large block trades occurring between the same brokerage house on a small mining company?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:38 - ID#266105)
@the trend is your friend

April 15th showers bring Mayflowers.

As Tax Freedom Day, now somewhere in June, creeps
towards Independence Day, or said differently, towards
lunchtime or _all_ the income west of the Mississippi
sent to D.C. for distribution--

....founding to WWI, 10% of national income.

....WWI to WWII, 20% of national income.

....WWII to Kennedy Administration, 30%.

....then to present, 40%.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:38 - ID#320376)
Cassandra speaks
There have always been doomsday prophets walking the streets.

The volume and frequency of such has increased lately, IMHO.

Again, the following is not intended as investment advice:

(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:39 - ID#31868)
kitkat type in the symbol and hit enter and voila'

(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:43 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
re taxes: we must not forget business taxes, which constitute a whopping 25-30% of the price of everything we buy, including food and other supposedly tax free necessities.


Here's my real contribution this morning, a joke I hope hasn't appeared here before:

The Pope met with his cardinals to discuss a proposal from Benjamin
Netanyahu, the leader of Israel.

"Your Holiness" said one of the Cardinals, "Mr. Netanyahu wants to
challenge you to a game of golf to show the friendship and ecumenical
spirit shared by the Jewish and Catholic faiths."

The Pope thought is was a good idea, but he had never held a golfclub
in his hand. "Have we not," he asked "a cardinal who can representme
against the leader of Israel?"

"None that plays golf very well," a cardinal said. "But," he added,
"there is a man named Jack Nicklas, an American golfer who is adevout
Catholic. We can offer to make him a cardinal; then ask him to play
Benjamin Netanyahu as your personal representative. In addition to
showing our spirit of cooperation, we'll also win the match."

Everyone agreed it was a good idea.

The call was made. Of course, Nicklaus was honored and agreed to

The day after the match, Nicklaus reported to the Vatican to informthe
Pope of the result. "I have some good news and some bad news, Your
Holiness," said the world-class golfer.

"Tell me the good news first, Cardinal Nicklaus," said the Pope.

"Well, Your Holiness, I don't like to brag, but even though I've played
some pretty terrific rounds of golf in my life, this was the best I have
ever played, by far. I must have been inspired from above. My drives
were long and true, my irons were accurate and purposeful and my
putting was perfect. With all due respect, my play was truly

"There's bad news?" the Pope asked.

Nicklaus sighed. "I lost to Rabbi Woods by three strokes."

(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:43 - ID#410198)
Gianni-Dioro,,,no ones calling you a Nazi,however it was a fact,check out my post yesterday 21:12
The first amendment gives us the right to free speech, right...does that give me right to sit outside your house at 3 AM with a bull horn exercising my first amendments rights.The freedom we enjoy is based on respect and may not like my habit but you are free to object to it without calling on Big Brother to squash my freedom to choose how I kill myself,the bigger picture however tobacco today guns tomorrow maybe something you like next...where do you draw the line

(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:47 - ID#213265)
@the scene
2BRO2B -- The argument to your 'trend' is as socialists would claim; It's best for the 'common good'. Amazing how many people flocked to this country to escape that nazi type of jack-booted government.

Mike Stewart
(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:48 - ID#270253)
One of Southernera's big opportunities lies in a joint venture with Randgold on a diamond property called Marsfontein. Ownership is in dispute. DeBeers has signed a deal with the other side. Details at under press releases.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:55 - ID#269409)
ANOTHER final word.....
This was supposed to be attached to last way of explanation that there was never any intent to discourage ANOTHER's posts...nor those of his followers... Only a questioning sketpicism of the ideas. Pardon the self indulgence in setting the record straight. Maybe he may be co-erced into returning now......Off to render to Ceaser what is Ceaser's... ( and to render to Ceaser what is MINE! hehe )

Date: Tue Mar 24 1998 15:15
LGB ( @ JTF re ANOTHER / POG / Humility ) ID#269409:
Copyright  1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
JTF, Im somewhat puzzled by your 12:41 question as to how I explain Golds price blip. I already stated it
earlier. Yeltsins summary surprise firing of his cabinet, and the blip in oil price caused by weekend agreement
with Oil producers. RJ added a couple more good reasons, including short covering and currency market

There is no big mystery to this POG move. Weve seen similar moves dozens of times in the past, in direct
response to news events, market related, world economy related, dollar strength related, and world political
stability related. No mystery here at all. It certainly doesnt take a rocket scientist to make the connection.

As to ANOTHER, you and I agree that the true believers will try and ascribe the POG move to his prediction of
a big buyer, no matter what kind of tortured reasoning it takes to make such a connection. ( Including the long
term liquidation of 299 tons announced by Belgium, or changing the timing, or the meaning, or the window of
when the prediction really was supposed to begin, etc etc ad nauseum ) .

How this past 2 days Gold action constitutes a new, big time Buyer who will cause a New Gold market to
emerge, is beyond me. We certainly see no evidence of such yet.
Eventually we will see a new Gold market, I myself stated three months ago that the worm had turned and $280
was a bottom, but I was just one of a huge chorus of such voices . When the true bull market in Gold does
emerge, I suspect itll be tied to strength of the dollar, supply/demand fundamentals, CBs coming to the end of
their dishoarding mania, world economy developments, perhaps a drop in equities, and a healthy increase in the
inflation rate.

All this will have little or nothing to do with ANOTHER, or his Oil/Gold postulations. The ME oil magnates
have been trading their oil for Gold since the 60s. This Gold/Oil connection is no news at all, with 3 major
exceptions. Namely,

a ) the ME players are large buyers and thus affect the supply/demand equation, and
b ) Rising oil prices generally contribute to inflationary pressures and
c ) The health of the world economy and individual economies of certain third world nations such as Mexico and
Argentina, is somewhat tied to the value of their Oil exports.

To repeat once again for the Zillionth time. I dont begrudge ANOTHERs rightful place on the forum. He may
very well have valuable knowledge to impart. Personally, I find the straightforward metals markets experts
here, far more valuable. DA, RJ, APH, Realistic, et al.

My earlier comments were not directed as a slam at ANOTHER, merely the latest in a series of reality checks.
As to humility, who is the more humble? He who reads a straightforward message from ANOTHER, and
interprets the plain meaning thereof, or those who presume to read 15 different, complex levels of hidden
mystery meanings into his messages as, as if they were direct revelations of scripture from an imagined deity?
Requiring the brilliant analysis our local Kitcoite prophets to interpret the Golden ANNOTHER Tablets for the
rest of us ignormauses.

Anyway, I'm all for ANOTHER and his disciples to go on posting like mad...but do expect a little rational
critique from the skeptical on ocassion, YES?

Psssssst Kitcoites.....shhhhhhh..... Kosares and ANOTHER are one.......

(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:56 - ID#218382)
@tolerant1 & Mike
Many thanks to you both. I bookmarked the link. Now if one only had that info ahead of time.

Spud Master
(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:56 - ID#273112)
Game over, electronic industry: you've exhausted the market..
Compaq net income collapses 96%,4,21111,00.html?

now, expect to see the last recourse: MERGERS.

Let's see DEC merged with Compaq.

Apple merges with Microsloth.

Gateway merges with Dell.

IBM merges with Motorolla and Texas Instruments.

Golly. What fun. This is just like the dodo American defense industry mergers - all the sickmen lean together and the resulting monopoly squeezes consumer for their last penny.

Where's that bloody "Countdown Timer to End of American Republic" URL?

Spud, unabashed loather & despiser of Liberals, who have hurried us down the road to Hell.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:57 - ID#33024)
Technical analysis about gold

(Wed Apr 15 1998 13:59 - ID#251268)
Copper ? whats up?
dramatic move up? mine closure or strike? anybody know?

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 14:02 - ID#384350)
Amerika and the Witch Hunt
Sorry guys, I'm fortunate not to live in the evil empire of Amerika. I suppose that maybe where you live a ban on smoking may be a stepping stone to extreme, unconstitutional measures, like a ban on guns or gold. I never said cigarettes should be banned outright. I said I didn't care if you smoke amongst other smokers. Heck, I even smoke cigars from time to time. I'm not caught up in that hysteria.

At university some 7 years ago, the prof asked the class who thought the govt should raise taxes on cigarettes. My hand out of 20 was the only one to go up against higher taxes on cigarettes. I liken it to the tax on tea by the Brits.

However, a true libertarian does not want to do anything which harms or encroaches on another person's liberties.

If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. Think I'll go out to the pub and catch a soccer match while I smoke a couple Cuban cigars. F*ck Amerika!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 14:09 - ID#400214)
Gianni Dioro__A
Gianni Dioro__A = I think my points are valid and rational.

I don't! I consider them an example of the failure of the modern educational system ( 1945-1998 ) . Not your fault, you were never exposed to critical thinking techniques in use prior to W.W.II. If you want to be stunned by the difference read a Ph.D. dissertation prior to 1940 and then read a 1998 dissertation in the same field.

Those things you point out are "RISKS" in our environment. What you do NOT do, is use any kind of "Risk Management Techniques" to decide which ones to avoid because the risk is too high or which ones you can ignore safely. You, like most who talk about these "horrible" things, are not researching the topic, do not study the available materials and do not think deeply about the topic.

I suggest you go study risk management techniques. The next 3 years could be very dangerous. Understanding the tradeoffs in all RISK that you HAVE to take could keep you alive, healthy and wealthy through it all.

Take it from one who has been there, acting on your emotions or un-researched opinions when you are in a life threatening situation will get you killed sooner than later.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 14:10 - ID#218382)
@Spud Master
Compaque's earning drop 96% and their shares go UP?.....

"The company's stock gained nearly 8
percent in early trading, up from
yesterday's close of 24-1/4."

It's an Alice in Wonderland market!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 14:11 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Gianni_Dioro -- Ban them? Oh no. See, if they did that, they couldn't tax 'em. Besides, doing that would eventually mean that they would also have to ban hamburgers and french fries, automobiles, chemicals of all kinds, fuels, and all manner of items, for some 'good'. They don't want to ban all the stuff that they can essentially tax, tax, and tax again, for the 'common good'.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 14:14 - ID#20986)
Southern Era
Someone asked about Southern Era. Don't follow it, but here's today's press release.



- Marsfontein Mineral Rights

On April 3, 1998 SouthernEra Resources Limited and joint venture partner, Randgold & Exploration Company Limited ( the Applicants ) , applied to the High Court of South Africa to seek relief against NGS Minerals ( Pty ) Limited ( NGS ) and Jacobus Francoise Jordaan ( the Respondents ) to prevent them from alienating or encumbering certain mineral rights on the farm Marsfontein 91 KS in the Northern Province of South Africa. The request was for an interdict to apply and remain in full force and effect until the Applicants' request for expropriation in terms of Section 24 of the Minerals Act, 50 of 1991, had finally been determined. Despite the above, counsel for NGS informed the Applicants' counsel, immediately prior to the scheduled court hearing on April 14, 1998 that they had concluded a prospecting contract for Marsfontein on April 9, 1998, with De Beers Consolidated Mines Limited. NGS and De Beers have refused to divulge the terms of the contract. SouthernEra and partner Randgold will continue to seek expropriation under Section 24 of the Minerals Act, and will also seek to deny the intervention of NGS in the earlier Section 17 hearing which is still before the courts. It is anticipated that De Beers will now become a Respondent in both the expropriation and interdict applications as outlined above. SouthernEra and Randgold are of the opinion that their legal position in these actions remains unchanged.

TEL: ( 416 ) 359-9282 Christopher M.H. Jennings, President, A. Lee

Interesting Times
(Wed Apr 15 1998 14:17 - ID#423355)
I have now read several dozen of your posts describing, in painstaking detail and with great redundancy, your contempt for ANOTHER and anyone who is interested in his opinions. Evidently you are not content with hounding the man off this forum and trashing those who presumed to converse with him, but must now reiterate your arguments and attacks until the end of time...

Put a sock in it.


(Wed Apr 15 1998 14:28 - ID#345176)
June Palladium $277.75 ??? - CBS MARKET WATCH

(Wed Apr 15 1998 14:32 - ID#266105)
@uninteresting times

No room aside the foot.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 14:36 - ID#201238)
jman - copper was up on a fall in London metal stocks of copper of about 3 percent. Too bad gold doesn't respond as well when Comex stocks drop as little!

According to my information, consumption of copper, lead, zinc, gold and silver were at record highs last year while prices were close to recent lows ( except for silver ) . Can inflation and a rebound in all metal stocks be far behind? If metal prices return to their ten year average prices the Talking Heads will be screaming about inflation! I expect we will see this soon.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 14:40 - ID#340302)
Today, I get a particular kick out of watching the enormous tech stock rally. The trigger...Compaq's amazing ability to meet the radically lower expectations of Wall Street stock analysts. On a fairly hefty sales volume, Compaq eked out a negligible profit...a whole penny a share. WOW!! The Street shouts with joy and once again, the Nasdaq moves into sheer verticality mode.

Conversely, if a gold producer simply managed to eke out a neglible profit and no more than met analysts' profit projections, The Street would likely let out a huge yawn. Gold stocks most likely would put in yet another anemic performance. The entire gold sector ( XAU ) might move up an entire point at best.

Why does the pitiful performance of one economic sector light up the skies while an analogous performance leaves another economic sector mired in its stagnant state?

The answer, of course, is perception...a subject I relentlessly discuss on this forum. I am but one small guy...a mere speck in an enormous market...yet, if my insights can help spark a fire and others begin to "get it," then hopefully a raging gold rally will be the ultimate result.

What exactly is the perceptual strength in the Wall Street New Paradigm?
Answer: all negatives are transmuted into positives or else they are denied completely. Thus, for example, in Compaq's case, there is absolutely no focus upon the company's virtally non-existent profit margin. The focus is simply, "WOW! The company actually met its analysts' pathetic profit projections. Let's break out the champagne! And let's invite all the other tech corporations to join in the party!"

On the other hand, what exactly is the perceptual weakness in the existent gold market paradigm? Answer: all negatives are viewed exactly as negatives while all positives are disparaged, negated, and undermined in a hail of cynicism. So for example, if a gold producer significantly improves its performance, yet still incurs a slight loss, the so-called market experts negate the notable performance improvement and focus on the loss. "Those damn gold companies...they can never make a profit!" announce the Wall Street pundits, "and things can only get worse because, as everyone knows, gold only has mythical value in our modern world!" The net effect: the forementioned gold producer manages a 1/4 point gain and the entire XAU manages a single point rally at best.

Another example of the genius of the Wall Street New Paradigm is a corollary tactic derived from its prinicipal strategy of negative transformation/denial and it goes something like this: attack all antagonistic ideologies ( such as goldbugism ) and employ whatever logic or tactics are necessary to invalidate the positives in such ideologies. In the event that Wall Street New Paradigm logic or tactics are later invalidated, then simply utilize revisionism in order to either deny or transmute the now invalidated logic or tactics and thereby restore potency, force, and resonance to newly conceived ideological attacks.

So, for example, not long ago, Wall Street gleefully trumpeted the news that gold reserves would likely play a neglible role in the new EURO...5% backing at best. This widely disseminated propaganda helped push gold down by about $20 ( IMHO ) . However, recently, when it appeared that, in fact, gold might have as much as 30% gold reserve support, then Wall Street quickly employed its own special brand of revisionism: market analysts immediately and loudly declared that the gold market's relatively slight rally in percentage terms on the upbeat EURO news constituted full market realization of 30% gold reserve support behind the EURO. Ergo, if the EURO actually turned out to have anything less than 30% gold support, then naturally, the price of gold MUST move down in order to reflect the "disappointing" news. Another classic example of pure Wall Street New Paradgm revisionism at its best!!

So, you may ask, what is the solution to this perplexing quandary that the gold market finds itself in?

Once again, I repeat: it is imperative that the gold market utilize the same methodologies as the Wall Street New Paradigm...a case of fighting fire with fire. And it becomes ever more imperative as Wall Street fights for its life to maintain its essential verticality mode ad infinitum...while, at the same time, the gold market struggles to maintain its viability as a sensible investment alternative and/or flight to safety. In Wall Street's fight to maintain verticality, it is taking no prisoners...literally attempting to destroy all antagonists and/or heretics who refuse to accept the inherent logic of the New Paradigm. Goldbugs just happen to be the New Paradigm's primary antagonists.

Who will win this war?

It's up to you.



Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 14:42 - ID#384350)
USDA Plans Would Outlaw Genuine Organic Produce
True risk management is crucial, however it is becoming harder and harder to avoid risks that are imposed upon us.

Oprah Winfrey is an unlikely hero of the battle against big business. Yet the recent case she won, wherein she established her right to express an opinion about the merits of eating beefburgers, ranks with the McDonald's libel trial as one of the few serious setbacks suffered by the agro-industrial combines seeking to monopolise world food production.

She was sued by a syndicate of monster cattle ranchers under the surreal "food disparagement" laws, introduced in 14 American states to prevent people from questioning such practices as feeding bovine offal to cows.

These laws are a compelling demonstration of the lengths to which US legislators will go to defend the interests of corporations against the interests of citizens.

Now the USDA wants to allow the labelling of fruit and vegetables in the US as "organic" when they have been genetically engineered, irradiated, treated with additives and raised on contaminated sewage sludge. Under the new proposals, "organic" livestock can be housed in batteries, fed with the offal ( entrails ) of other animals and injected with antibiotics. True organic produce, in the brave new world of American oligopoly, will be virtually indistinguishable from conventionally toxic food. The new proposals prohibit the setting of standards higher than those established by the department.

The WTO will make sure that this so called "organic" food reaches foreign shores.

Freedom of Choice does not exist in the USA

(Wed Apr 15 1998 14:51 - ID#340302)
@STRADDLER...thanks for your thoughtful comments...
...I have noted your E-Mail address and hope to respond at some point in the not-too-distant future. Please bear with me.



(Wed Apr 15 1998 14:52 - ID#238295)
new paradigm
Farfel: An essential component of the new Wall Street paradigm is that nothing can keep a good corporation's stock down for long. If profits slump they can fire workers en masse or merge. Workers and consumers will take it on the chin, but never the corporation, at least not for long.

Remember that WJC -- despite the right's hatred for him on social issues and personal sexual conduct -- probably is the best friend big business ever had in the White House. And this Congress also is the most pro-business ever.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 14:53 - ID#252150)
MoReGold @You Asked:
MoReGoLd ( @D.A. ) ID#348129:
The growth in money supply with no inflation is astonishing. How long can this

As long as the string remains limp.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 14:54 - ID#26669)
Silverbaron, give my regards to the Baroness, whom I hope will soon be a Palladium Duchess as well.
The prospects for SWC are interesting ( both up and down ) to say the least considering the volatility of the palladium market this week. I've clung to my shares despite the temptation to sell early for a good profit but I see that it is appearing to react in kind to the mixed news about Russian sales, shortages, et cetera, down to $27 the last time I checked. IMHO

(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:02 - ID#252150)
Mike Stewart@BGR PREC MTLS Tax Dispute
I too have owned it several times over the years & am currently up 50% in th warrants since JAN. I notice that you refer to a 22% discount to NAV.
Are you aware that they have an unresolved tax dispute with Rev Canada that goes back several years? I talked to them a few months ago & it was my understanding that they have a contingency fund in place for an expected settlement. I was'nt able to determine how much of the discount this would erode. Since you are in TO maybe you could check on it.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:07 - ID#410198)
Gianni-Dioro...for reference are you a northern neighbour if so does MAI mean anything to you

(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:10 - ID#289357)
223 @ SWC

Actually - she caught the platinum trend idea a couple years ago, watching the jewelry market....SWC has an amazing resource - it still may be a year or 2 before they come to the forefront.

PDLCF is another question - I have some shares of that one, but their management ( until the recent management changes ) was having a little trouble with the logistics of their remote location. Hopefully they will do much better now with control of their costs, and if they are smart, will begin to lock in some of these high prices so that their share price begins to reflect the value there.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:14 - ID#384350)
@Rob Noel, MAI
No I'm not from the north, and I am terrified of MAI. This kind of treaty and organisation could be a major threat to the holding of gold by us little guys.

Maybe all these mega bank mergers have something to do with it.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:15 - ID#270247)

In response to your USDA post. You are absolutly right. The USDA is trying to label many foods as being organically produced when in reality they are not. I have been very interested in organic farming the last couple of years, and I happen to know that most real organic farmers oppose the USDA's current plan. My belief is that non-organic farmers are simply trying to cash in on many people's desire for food that has been grown in a safer and healthier fashion. The only thing we can do at this point is join the rest of the real organic growing community in opposing this kind of poorly written and thought out legislation and to continue offering people a truly organic alternative.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:17 - ID#26669)
Mike Stewart re Comparing 1Q93 to 1Q98
You make an interesting correlation there about the 93 vs 98 charts. Do you have similar charts for the South African mining index? It would be interesting to see if the same principle holds true. ( I've seen [I'm not a chartist, just watch prices] that SA stocks mostly appear more leveraged on both up and downswings of the market. ) IMHO

(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:23 - ID#252150)
Farfel@The resident xenophobe
I've noticed a couple of your recent uninformed, disparaging comments on Canada RE: stagflation & a weak currency.

1 ) You claim that Canada is experiencing stagflation because of low AU reserves. At the present time our inflation is lower than yours & the World Bank forecasted that we will have the highest GDP growth in the G7 this year. If we are experiencing stagflation, then what the hell are you experiencing?

2 ) As for our weak currency I don't feel that it has anything to do with the amount of AU in our reserves, but has everything to do with the rapacious, parasitic hedge funds led by the chief parasite G.S., who find
it quite easy to attack the currency of a relatively small economy such as Canada. Having said that, I still feel that AU reserves should comprise a reasonable %, but do not have any bearing on the recent attacks on our currency.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:24 - ID#270247)
tolerant and ITRO

Thanks for the tip on ITRO. Just checked out their wedsite. My wife is a photographer and developes most of her own photos, and there is definetly a place for them in the photographic world as well as the silver world. If they can get things going they will be a very strong company.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:24 - ID#330175)
Ive been 'out' for the day---did gold hit 3,000 t'day???

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:25 - ID#384350)
@KJR, Organic Farming
Personally, I think they want to stamp it out. Organic farming is capital intensive and is growing at 20-30% a year. It responds best to small-scale production, matched to the peculiarties of the land. Big Business simply can't operate or compete in this type of environment. What it can't control, it must destroy.

The US govt claims to be the champion of free trade, but in truth it is emphatically opposed to it. It seeks instead to exercise a coercive power of central control and legislative diktat--on a scale that makes the command economies of the old Soviet Union look like a village paper-round.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:25 - ID#31868)
Ted - Yeah
three different times, but it retraced.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:27 - ID#330175)

(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:27 - ID#410198)
Gianni-Dioro....MAI makes the smoking issue mute...could be a smoke screen .the
men in dark suits have bigger fish to

(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:28 - ID#31868)
KJR J. Taylor introduced me to ITRO I highly suggest his newsletter. He roots out all sorts of interesting stocks. Very decent, honest and straight forward individual.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:32 - ID#400214)
tolerant1 Re: ITRO

I could not find ITRO on Nasdaq. Could you post their ( ITRO's ) Web site?


(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:34 - ID#401237)

CNBC " M L says 'Intel may nose dive to 60'"

That must mean M L is going to buy Intel when it tanks.


(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:34 - ID#31868)

(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:35 - ID#210235)
@When is a discussion group not a discussion group?
LGB, RJ - Bye.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:36 - ID#230376)
@ Gianni & KJR...

excuse me... Isn't everything ORGANIC ??? Go Gold !

(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:37 - ID#340302)
Please do some more research into the definition of "stagflation."



(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:45 - ID#26669)
Silverbaron re PDLCF
You've got me entirely on that one. I tend to distrust stocks I don't follow for a long time and all I have on PDLCF is what I've been able to find on the Net. Recall what Mark Twain said about gold mines and double it for PGM stocks. IMHO

I bought SWC this winter after having followed it since prior to its symbol change. I won't bore you with fundimental details you can read in the quarterly reports. On the prejudice or intuition side I think that it meets my criteria for a 'generic' ( If not blue chip at least not a cattle chip? ) stock that by the time I get around to selling it will be what my barber, grocery sacker and neighbors will want, kind of the McDonalds of PGM's. IMHO

Unlike R.J. I dislike Pt and Pd and hold very little of their physical presence; what I have is only as a hedge against some massive breakthrough like real working cold fusion. IMHO

(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:50 - ID#340459)
It is interesting to see that with so much money in the market, The Boys in Wall Street are doing
"momentum investing". Everybody there moves into the same stocks in the same sectors and then move out at the same time out like herds of Buffalo, Drugs are 'out' for now and Financials are 'in'. This kind of short term investing is quite a dangerous trend developing and akin to Gambling in a Casino ( with other People's hard earned money ) . The GDP/GNP growth in USA/Canada/Europe is less than 4% annually while Stock market has moved up several times this quantified growth. I am quite convinced that some major indices are either fixed and monitored to reflect very select group of Global interests. The open and close POG is London/NY is definately fixed. The Price is being pushed down just before close of late, is quite apparent to the eye.

Another indicator that I find most suspect is S&P futures in the morning, it sets the trend for DOW/Amex and Nasdaq and then Bull / Bear is then blindly followed by almost all Markets in the rest of the World.

All you need is the lot's of paper and broker's facilities ( through select concerted action ) to move this S&P futures into Bull / Bear sentiment that they choose. Dow is also carefully steered by Curbs and ( free market ) manipulation.

Sanity is in short supply when Clinton's ratings rise with each scandal ( 87% now, will soon be 100% with few more scandals. Yahoo is 188 times earnings and still considered a safer investment than Gold by 20 yr olds who are controlling Hundred's of Millions of Dollars of other peoples money in investment funds and mutuals.

USA, The largest borrower is considered the richest and the safest, while
Japan, the largest creditor and Savings oriented Country is in deep doo doo according to Everybody everywhere.

Wall Street is full of charlatans who are taking us all globally for a ride and their power is increasing all day, every day and no one can anything about it. Asian Tigers to Asian paupers and Supreme Soviet Republic to land of Gangsters and prostitutes. When Japan crumbles financially, the only holdout that remains will be China before Single Global currency and Single Government will touted as the most "efficient" and neccessary for human survival on this Planet.

Go Gold Go.....................

(Wed Apr 15 1998 15:59 - ID#255284)
I enjoyed reading your post. Particular telling are your comments on the apparant differences in affluence between Japan, one of the world's great creditors and the US, the most indebted. Is Yahoo really selling at a P/E of 188?


(Wed Apr 15 1998 16:00 - ID#270247)
Gianni, Organic Farming

I agree with you that the big agriculture interests want to stomp out any kind of competition. However, I also feel that at this point in time the only thing they can do is try to assimilate it. The public is slowly ( very slowly ) starting to wake up to the fact that what they put into their bodies really does matter and that most chemicals do not "just wash off." No matter what people may think or beleive they all have one thing in common...they do not want to die. This fear of death or joy with life will keep them searching for ways to make it last as long as possible and truly organic products can help do that. Most everyone has a vise ( smoking, drinking, eating too much chocolate ) that might get them in the end, but at least they CHOOSE to do that. With current system of food production no one has a choice as to how their food is grown and what is put on to it. More and more want to have that choice and they will do what they have to in order to keep it. Just like many posters at Kitco have chosen to buy gold despite all the attempts to undermine and discredit the metal. There will always be a market for gold, and I beleive their will always be a market for good, pure food as long as people are able to grow it and offer it. If the government takes either of those rights away it probably will not be around much longer.

Mike Stewart
(Wed Apr 15 1998 16:01 - ID#270253)
James BGR
BGR has settled part of their dispute with Revenue Canada. The remainder is still outstanding,but if it goes in favour of RevCan, the Net Asset value will drop by about $2.00 per share. The initial settlement was for a relatively small amount of money. This issue has been out there for years.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 16:02 - ID#153102)
BIS is, so far as I know, the only organization which can move and deposit gold around the world with a guarantee of security from seizure and other interference by governments.

Stationary Gold is dead gold. IMF Articles keep gold penned in vaults. Dead. Gold backing is a nonsense phrase, signifying nothing meaningful to me. Gold Reserves for gold trading is a meaningful phrase, signifying gold is a reserve currency. Is the Euro Bank scheduled to join BIS ?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 16:13 - ID#320158)
Silverbaron, 223 & PDLCF
That's a good idea about PDLCF hedging and locking in some high palladium prices. Don't know if they've done that. I'll mention it and see what they say
You may or may not know, but Pat Sheridan of Toronto found that mine some years ago. It was called the Madeileine mine. He still owns a few million shares of the company.
I get info from him and he tells me the new management team is running the mill very well and "could produce 100,000 ounces of palladium this year."
That may be a little ambitious as Sheridan's numbers are 8,000 ounces per month, which only comes up to 96,000 ounces, if everything goes well.
Word is gradually leaking out about the turnaround up there.
I recommend it in my newsletter and many subscribers have bought it.
I think it's a great story at present and plan on making a good bit of money on it.

Dennis Wheeler

(Wed Apr 15 1998 16:16 - ID#240120)
More going bankrupt despite the boom

The USA has the same problem. Personal bankruptcies are soaring ! But it's difficult to obtain exact details.... I wonder why !

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 16:17 - ID#384350)
Robnoel, MAI Multilateral Agreement on Investment
Good link, NAFTA on Steroids, while striking is probably still an understatement. From what I have read, the awareness of this treaty by Labour groups and environmentalists has led to their throwing a monkey wrench into the agreement by their insistence on environmental issues, and labour demands put forth by trade unions who have consultative status within the OECD.

It doesn't surprise me that most politicians aren't aware of this deal.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 16:29 - ID#320158)
Teck, Western Copper
Did anyone notice the superb drill results released today by Teck Corp and Western Copper?
Hole 49 = 500 feet of .81% copper, 1.92% zinc, 1 ounce silver, .02 ounce gold.
Hole 50 = 112 feet of 2.42% copper
Hole 51 = 144 feet of 2.39% copper
Hole 53 = 193 feet 0f .72% copper, 5.86% zince, 2+ ounce silver, .045 ounce gold
Hole 54 = 20 feet of 2.07% copper, 14.3% zince, 6 ounce silver, .06 ounce gold WOW!
Hole 55 = 63 feet of .79% copper, 4.51% zinc, 2+ ounce silver, .02 ounce gold plus 91 feet of 2.83% copper plus
9 feet of 1% copper, 4.53% zinc, 8 ounce silver, .14 ounce gold
Hole 57 = 125 feet of 1.22% copper, 2.38% zinc, 1 ounce silver, .04 ounce gold.
Hole 58 = 16 feet of .49% copper, 3.83 zinc, 1.7 ounce silver, .04 ounce gold

This is a major deposit. The shares didn't react so well. But they will in time.

Dennis Wheeler

(Wed Apr 15 1998 16:32 - ID#252150)
My definition of stagflation is a stagnant economy with extremely low or no growth, but relatively high inflation. The exact opposite of what Canada is experiencing now. What's yours?

Off to the golf course.

Charles Keeling
(Wed Apr 15 1998 16:35 - ID#344225)
@ FARFEL RE: Your 14:40 POST
Good post. I agree with your thesis.

It looks like the talking heads that appear
on CNBC and other financial news shows have
picked up on the latest technique used by
our politicians: the art of "THE SPIN".

Clintons spinmeisters have mastered this
technique and are now able to take any FACT
that may be detrimental and "spin it" in the
opposite direction and SELL this newly
fabricated LIE to the American people over
( the media that hypnotizes the masses )

The sheep are moving in mass repeating the
words that they have learned from TV.

1. I invest for the long term
2. I buy on dips
3. I expect a 20 % return each year
4. I buy shares every month regardless
5. I have Mututal Funds. Why worry!
6. The Fed and the Government will
manage the markets in case of any
temporary downturn.
7. Inflation is no longer a factor so
the Fed will not raise rates.
8. 1929 can't happen again. We have
grown too sophisticated financially
to ever allow that to happen. Just
look at how the 87 turndown was
9. The debt is simply something that
we owe to ourselves. No big deal.
10. Excessive Government spending
stimulates the economy. It's good
for business.
11. Large trade deficits have been going
on for years with no detriment to our
12. The S E Asia turmoil? That was only
a small glitch in the overall economic
picture that really is not worthy of
our attention. The IMF handled it.
13. High PE ratios? The highest DOW/GOLD
ratio of modern times? SE Asia dumping
goods into our markets? NO...these
things do not worry me! If the equity
market starts a serious downward
trend, WJC will shore it up by moving
Social Security Funds into equities.
If additional help is needed, the US
CB will start selling gold.
14. Zippergate? Look, lets get it
straight. Im for DOW JONES, not
Paula Jones. Besides, I believe that
absolutely nothing was done that was
improper. Just more partisan politics.

Absolutely anything can be sold using the power
of the boob tube. When the masses start moving
in a specific direction perhaps it's best to
quickly jump out front and lead the parade, but
when the trend changes it can be like a tidal

FOR A TREND CHANGE.......................

(Wed Apr 15 1998 16:36 - ID#252150)
Mike Stewart@ BGR
Thanks for update. If the decision goes against them, their discount to NAV will pretty well disappear. That explains the lacklustre performance of the fund recently. Although, the warrants have done quite well.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 16:43 - ID#340302) the strictest layman's sense....
...economists define stagflation as follows:

Low growth accompanied by rising interest rates.

Hence, the central error in your definition is your impression that inflation must occur synchronously with lower growth...but it ain't necessarily so.


Because interest rates may rise, not to preclude inflation, but rather to protect the value of the currency, i.e., preclude huge capital outflows from the country.

Unfortunately, Canada ( I'll repeat: a country I adore! ) is in the unfortunate predicament whereby the only way it will be able to stem capital outflows and protect its plunging currency is via interest rate hikes.



(Wed Apr 15 1998 16:47 - ID#26669)
Farfel, let me tackle that one
Stagflation is when YOUR salary remains the same or is cut or downsized or YOUR job is sent overseas so that a guy who's chained to his machine in the People's Republic of Red China can make your widget for 1/10 the price. Or YOUR wife has to go back to work to bring in a second paycheck so they don't foreclose on YOUR house. But YOUR prices for all the things which count for YOU, such as land, a home, medicines, golf course green fees, children's schoolbooks ( or in a socialized system the taxes you pay for similar goods and services ) go up.

So its all a matter of perspective. And I don't know about Canada but many parts of the US of A are in stagflation even as we speak, some are in frank inflaton and some are depressed. ( I suspect Canadians won't notice it until all their extractive industries go into a cyclical downturn as Canada is more like US areas such as West Virginia, Montana etc that the big urban centers. )

John Disney__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 16:47 - ID#24135)
to Ceaser .. to Gewpiter... and beyond
Maybe if you renderred to Caesar what was his rather
than giving it to Ceaser ( whoever the hell he is )
Caesar would be a lot happier.
I continue to marvel at your endless explorations of
the outer limits of really bad taste.

John Disney__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 16:52 - ID#24135)
King Vronsky the First
To All
JSE board .. Highveld steel up 15 %. DeBeers up 10% ..
I think some serious re-rating is going on. Half the volumn
on the JSE was foreign buying. Does everybody read Vronsky ??

(Wed Apr 15 1998 16:54 - ID#410198)
John Disney: sitting here looking at my daughter,just in from Cape Town.....:)

(Wed Apr 15 1998 16:54 - ID#266105)

dd -5.7%

hgmcy -2.7%

rangy -2.1%

THIN trading. Lihry adrs haven't traded for two days.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 16:56 - ID#347235)
@ John Disney & Rob Noel
John, lighten up many of us are in fact literate and spell better than we type!!! There is no spell checker here for when we type faster than we think~.

Rob, Spoke with Russ Savage @ Jeffinc today he says if in fact SOME
unauthorized runs were made with silver blanks, thay may have considerable collectors interest,, EH?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:01 - ID#240120)
The fish are dying

No fish = No future. Come on Mother Nature we know you can do it... Now step to it before it's too late.


G o G o l d

(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:03 - ID#410198)
Retired Soldier: Never meet Russ,and wish he worked for me so I defer to his opinion

(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:12 - ID#410198)
Gianni-Dioro,....the frustration is most here and in US are completly ignorant of whats in store if
Clinton ever gets his way with "FAST TRACK"........we may defer on smoking but we are brothers on this one

(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:13 - ID#340302)
F*'s Evaluation of the GOLD market...
Today proved to be an extremely encouraging day for gold. In the face of both surging DOW and NASDAQ markets, gold remained steady while the XAU actually moved up slightly on generally increasing volumes at the close of the markets. This is EXTREMELY BULLISH!

The most encouraging aspect of this development is that, based on the past month's history, gold and gold stocks seem to have re-established their negative beta and/or contrarian directional moves relative to the broader equities markets. Thus, when gold is able to remain flat and/or move up while equities markets are racing ahead, then it suggests that gold/gold stocks are prepared to rise no matter what state the equities markets are in.

Again, the KITCO barometer is even more encouraging. A notable drop in the number of goldbug posters indicates overall pessimism and/or wariness toward the yellow metal. Thus, in the event of a left field positive event, there is tremendous potential for increased interest to lift the metal. And much more interesting...the announced departures of several
notable gold pessimists, angry that their "realistic" perspectives on the gold metal are being either ignored or invalidated by Kitco goldbugs, suggests an impending gold bear capitulation is in the works.

The precious metals Relativity Index is yet more encouraging. Despite notable, large drops in both Platinum and Palladium, gold again remained steady. As mentioned previously, I believe that gold will soon return to its historical, relativistic norm against the white metals. Since I believe there are genuine supply problems afflicting the white metals, then I would expect gold to jump much higher to re-establish its former relative position to the white metals, thereby returning the PM market to its historical equilibrium.

Again, with the G-7 conference just around the corner and the ( combatants ) posturing and preparing for the onset of global currency war, then I believe it has never looked so good for gold.

In conclusion, I believe we may shortly witness the first double digit, single day gold upspike in ages...its effects should be quite dramatic and a final confirmation of the gold bear's demise.



Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:21 - ID#384350)
robnoel, Fast track
Yep, I was glad Clinton didn't get that fast track consent from congress. But it's an evil that won't go away. Vigilence is needed. I suppose when the stock market and various Western currencies collapse. Legislation will be rushed through when the masses are dazed and confused.

What I was trying to say earlier was in reference to second hand smoke. I respect your liberty to smoke. I just don't like breathing smoke through my eyes and lungs, just because I want to drink a beer and socialize.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:25 - ID#266105)
@newspapers-- the first draft of history

Friday-- Japanese intervention = $1B on currency trader rumors.

Monday-- = a few $B maybe 4.

Tuesday-- $12B Japanese sale of Treasuries = scale of
Thursday, Friday intervention. Also equals
size of routine Treasury refunding auction.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:28 - ID#410198)
Gianni-Dioro: OK you opened yourself to this one,a few weeks back the London Telegraph
reported that a secret WHO ( World Health Org. ) report said that second hand smoke was a myth as a matter of fact they went so far as to say it may even be benificial....stick that in the old pipe and smoke it..: )

(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:29 - ID#411149)
AU mkt
farfel- I agree 100% with your evaluation of the gold and gold stock

Tally Ho

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:31 - ID#384350)
rob, up in smoke?
Mary Jane, maybe. Cigarettes, Nah!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:33 - ID#31868)
List of Organizations
Targeted by IRS


Under audit or have completed audit
Western Journalism Center
Citizens for a Sound Economy
Peoples Network Inc. ( Chuck Harder )
Manufacturing Policy Project ( Pat Choate )
American Life League
Christian Film and Television Commission
National Rifle Association
National Review
American Spectator
National Center for Public Policy Research
American Policy Center
Heritage Foundation
American Cause
Citizens Against Government Waste
Citizens for Honest Government
Freedom Alliance
Progress and Freedom Foundation
Council for National Policy
Concerned Women for America
Center for Bioethical Reform

The following have received warnings
or other indications that they are
under audit:
Free Congress Foundation
Fortress America

Groups whose applications for
tax-exempt status were or are delayed
Christian Coalition
Christian Coalition, California chapter
San Diego Chapter of Christian Coalition underwent a lengthy
investigation and audit, but resulted in their being told to apply for
their own exempt status.
Three chapters of American Family Association
Life Legal Defense Foundation

Churches: tax-exempt status revoked or
threatened with revocation
Pierce Creek Church ( Vestal, NY )
Second Baptist Church ( Lake Jackson, Texas )

Indivividuals: subjected to audit,
imprisonment, or other harassing tactics
Bruce Bates
Paula and Stephen Jones
Jeff Evans, TV talk show host in Guam. Noted as opposed to Clinton policies. Charged with "failure to file," he was imprisoned for month of October 1996
Margie Gray, retired businesswoman. Criticized the president in an e-mail
Billy Dale, former director of the White House travel office
Patricia and Glenn Mendoza -- citizens who shouted remark at the president
Kent Masterson Brown, attorney who represented the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons in 1994 to open up Hillary Clinton's secret health care task force.
Walter Gazecki, edited the documentary "Waco: The Rules of Engagement"
Shelly Davis, former IRS historian and whistleblower. Author of "Unbridled Power"

(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:35 - ID#347235)
@ Gianni
What I used to do in self defense when I was caught in staff meetings with a bunch of cigarette smokers was to buy the most rotten smelling cigar I could and light up, then they would open some windows and doors! Works every time, and I like cigars! Sorry Bart off of gold for a minute.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:37 - ID#410198)
Now now Gianni-Dioro that is politicaly incorrect....we not in San Francisco Dorothy

(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:41 - ID#31868)
buying gold won't stop this or protect you from it...
How we are losing our freedom

I often write about freedom, but have never defined it.

Freedom, in the classical liberal tradition, exists only within the context of three conditions: self-government, civil rights and the rule of law. Take away any one of these pre-requisites and you seriously erode a nation's claim to freedom.

You could argue that all three of these conditions are under attack in America's Clinton era.

When less than 50 percent of the eligible public chooses to participate in a presidential election and there is widespread disenchantment with both major political parties, the system of self-government is clearly in danger.

When new "special" rights are bestowed upon favored classes of people, because of their race, gender or behavior patterns, the universal rights that transcend government edict are cheapened and assaulted.

And, most of all, when the rule of law no longer applies to those in the most powerful positions of authority, the system is headed for a breakdown. It is the undermining of this last prerequisite of freedom in America today that threatens to knock the country off its enviable pedestal of liberty.

The first warning shot in this war on the rule of law was fired when the incoming Clinton administration chose an unprecedented course of action -- the firing of every single U.S. attorney in the country and installation of handpicked replacements.

At the time, even Clinton critics missed the point. Some postulated that this was an action designed to camouflage the derailing of investigations into financial scandals in Arkansas. While that was no doubt a consideration, in retrospect, we should be able to see with the benefit of hindsight that the new administration had much bigger plans in mind -- offensive plans rather than a defensive one.

This was a move designed to remove what Vice President Al Gore, later caught red-handed using his high office for overtly political purposes, would call "the controlling legal authority." It was the first of many programs designed to place the administration above the law. It was the beginning of an effort to remove any legal accountability of a future pattern of criminal activity. It was the end of accountability to anything but public opinion polls.

A second major development -- quite legal, but highly suspect -- was the unexpected, summary firing of FBI Director William Sessions in the administration's first year in power. Here was another independent law-enforcement figure who could prove inconvenient to a White House bent on breaking all the rules.

With just those two often overlooked but strategic political maneuvers, Clinton cleared the field for a broad pattern of abuse of power -- misusing the White House Travel Office, misusing the confidential FBI files of political adversaries, misusing the Internal Revenue Service to target enemies and stifle opposition, misusing other federal law enforcement agencies to cover up crimes, misusing federal employees to conduct purely political work and damage-control operations, misusing the office of the presidency to sell favors to private interests including hostile foreign powers, and, yes, even misusing White House interns and volunteers.

If only Nixon had been this clever -- if only he had planned ahead for the criminal activity in which he would participate -- he would have served out his two terms in office. Nixon, however, waited until he got into trouble before he started firing the controlling legal authorities. Clinton removed them in advance.

This is how the end could begin for 200-plus years of increasing freedom in America. The attack on liberty has come from the top, as it always does. Power is the enemy of freedom -- the polar opposite. And what we see developing in Washington today is a centralization and consolidation of raw, unprincipled, unaccountable political power.

I know, this may sound a bit dire, a trifle "conspiratorial," maybe even a little paranoid. But think about it. Facts are facts. The events we are witnessing today on the national scene are unparalleled in American history. The consequences could be grave. The president's power has paralyzed a Congress controlled by the opposition party. An "independent counsel," appointed by the administration, has been reduced to a national joke. The establishment press is baffled, bemused and hopelessly disengaged.

Who can stop this juggernaut of officially sanctioned organized crime? Could this be the end of the world's greatest experiment in freedom?
Joseph Farah is editor of the Internet newspaper and executive director of the Western Journalism Center, an independent group of investigative reporters.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:44 - ID#266105)
@fertilizing without a license

For that post, added to the IRS enemies list:


Mike Stewart
(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:49 - ID#270253)
James BGR
My experience with BGR is that is underperforms early in a Gold uptrend as the public is not yet in. This is true of BGR itself and the underlying junior issues that they hold. When the public is convinced that this is for real, they like juniors and BGR. Then you want to sell it.

I just found my BGR annual report from 1991. They refer to this tax dispute back then!!! although the amounts wre smaller.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:49 - ID#384350)
Soldier, thanks for the tip. Nothing I like better than smoking a big fat Cuban amongst cig smokers. Makes me look important.

Rob- I left the US for good. So I can be as politically incorrect as I want to be. We don't need no thought control.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:51 - ID#201238)
comex data
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for April 15
Gold 634,304 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 88,987,516 - 966 troy ounces
Copper 112,187 - 214 short tons

(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:54 - ID#254110)
M/D/H gold and Silver data
Isn't Kitco maintaining the Monthly/daily/hourly gold and silver data and chart information anymore? This data has not been updated since mid-march.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:55 - ID#288295)
223 @ your 16:47
I've been in the engineering services biz ( chemicals and synthetic polymers industries ) for over 30 years, and have found over time that this industry is one of the most economically sensitive, generally pre-staging wide economic downturns by 6 to 12 months. It is economically sensitive because companies cut back on capital spending when their margins are squeezed, and also as a fallout from M & A activity ( nobody buys a company then starts spending money on new capital assets ) . The bottom has just fallen out of this business, in all the companies I am in touch with. My company has had its first layoffs EVER in its 16 year history. Look out folks, the slowdown is comin.

silver plate
(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:57 - ID#234253)
Gold evaluation - WOW - I'm ready for it
Now, enough of this gold stuff, let's talk about beets. I love beets but I only know of two forms, one is pickled and the other is borscht.

so how does your wife prepare them so well for dinner to make you go yum yum?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 17:58 - ID#31868)
I have been looking at the layoff numbers and it proves what is coming will devastate the market here and America.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 18:07 - ID#410198) you southern neighbour?...only have 2 options left

Voyeur Professor
(Wed Apr 15 1998 18:10 - ID#231101)


Your optimism may, indeed, prove prescient. Kitco posters over the past few days surely seemed to be throwing in the towel, and irrationally so, I believe. We even heard disparaging voices suggest that gold would retest $300 and , if it failed to hold, would crash to $200. Your steady eye on golds "fundamentals" has served to keep me focused on the reason why gold has moved from its last bottom at $278. I would suggest we all keep in mind the altered circumstances in the gold bear that inexorably drove gold to historic lows: CB selling, short selling bolstered by a rising dollar, Asian gold selling, and a negative psychology rooted in the "gold is dead" mantra. Conversely, one can point to a shift in each of these past scenarios, even the renewed interest in gold by hedge funds and brokerages who have recently upgraded companies like Newmont and Barrick. While I expect considerable volatility in gold prices, I believe, as do many analysts who have become bullish on gold, we will see higher gold prices this year. Even as the Dow continues to show strength, gold has not plunged as it did during most of last year. Certainly the argument for golds new stability can be made.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 18:21 - ID#57232)
Debt in the USA - how much on an age-adjusted basis?
All: There are a number of bullish factors in the USA driving the markets -- the biggest is the baby boom, with spending expected to peak about 2010-2015, about the time Social Security goes belly up. About 1/2 of the GNP is private spending. The weak corporate earnings that we are experiencing now may rebound if the European economies come around - pre y2k, at least. 'Flight to safety', and blind baby boomer retirement account investing may push the US markets up, regardless of P/E ratios.

One key threat to continuation of the US bull stock market ( pre y2k ) is debt/bankruptcy nibbling away at the stability of the markets, making them vulnerable to shocks. Does anyone know relative bankruptcy rates on an age adjusted basis, or debt load based on age group? Any historical comparisons on a relative basis?

My point is that to truly guage the threat of private debt to the US economy, we need to know how much debt there really is for each age group, as a percentage of assets. For example, I would be really worried if all age groups were not saving. But -- what if the average 45 yo American was saving as much as the average Japanese at 45? Maybe the difference is only because there are proportionately many more younger Americans. I doubt this, but I would like to see actual confirmatory data.

I am less worried about the short term effect of federal debt, as the effect of this is delayed, based on Federal revenues. Our achilles heel is probably private debt, and runaway private bankruptcies deflating the markets. A failure here would trigger the federal problem a year later.

The only other variable that I can think of that might buypass the baby boomers and hit the US economy directly would be a run on the dollar, as that would drive up interest rates, increase federal debt expenses, and crash the markets. This is probably less likely while AG is at the helm.

Comments, web sites, anyone?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 18:21 - ID#176200)
This administration preaches to the rest of the world "HUMAN RIGHTS"
when they are slowly removing ours. This simply proves that the
american people have turned a deaf ear to it all. I call it the
"SANDBOX SYNDROME" meaning that all is ok in my box ( life )
The economy is great ( they say it every night on the news )
Inflation is low etc. Why sould I care what the politicians do?
Its just polotics!
Most of my circle of friends have this attitude and are all planning
a nice fat retirement in just a few years ( 5 yrs max ) I no longer
discuss gold with anyone except my wife, who is a believer.
It just cant happen here!

I happen to agree with you. Thanks for the posts! O.L.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 18:23 - ID#410198)
For those who want to know about the liberal view on gold,it's long and wrong,whats new

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 18:26 - ID#384350)
Dow/Gold ratio
Dow/Gold 29.84 I saw a chart on this, can't remember where. Anyone know?

Rob, I live in the Republic of Ireland, born on the plantation called Amerika. One day I hope to be truly free of them chains that bind. Last year I gave money to the NRA and Greenpeace. So I'm kind of a treehugger with a gun.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 18:30 - ID#317193)
Gold rocketing-still, further, moreover
I see that consistent with my call a week and one-half ago, that gold would rocket in the next few weeks, it is down one whole almighty dollar today. Should you need any calls on the future value of gold feel free to seek me out. Actually, from the time I made the call I don't think gold is down much. However, it sure as hell has not rocketed. Maybe my "gut" calls s**k. Time will tell. Hope this is not the second mistake made in my life-right! Down a couple more dollars and it's buy the dips, dip. Tom P.S. Thank you for your post Brother oris

(Wed Apr 15 1998 18:30 - ID#288295)
And it never ceases to amaze me, when a company like Intel comes out with really horrid quarterly earnings ( on top of previous bad earnings ) and a rotten forward-looking earnings forecast, and then the stock GOES UP because the lemmings are told that earnings were not quite as rotten as they had been forecast...go figure. This thing is gonna end up badly - the question is WHEN?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 18:37 - ID#288369)
Geeze, it seems all I do now is write futile notes to posters, whom I appreciate, to talk them out of leaving. LGB would you kindly reconsider? All I can say is truth has a way of revealing itself. In the musical arena we say this..."you will be found or you will be found out." This is fact.... and I firmly believe that good advice and solid investment analysis will, eventually, expose and overtake the horse crap.

Today I practiced and played with a group of top-flight jazzers at studio.7. I was, by far, the least accomplished musician seems an important part of my self-respect system dies when I walk away from a "exposure" like that. To put it in baseball terms...My bat did not catch a whiff of the ball. But in reality, I grew a bit.

For tomorrow....I will take my humble skinney butt back in there, pick up my bat and swing from my heart. This is all I know to do....LGB...Batter up!

fast lurker__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 18:41 - ID#339203)
Greatly miss comments from Another, I know it can be difficult for some to remain professional when dealing with opinions. ANOTHERS thoughts have been greatly appreciated by me and I would hope he could be gracious enough to post to the golden eagle site. Editorial opinions at golden eagle are not subject to critique but are widely read. Hope ANOTHER reads this and will post to golden eagle by e-mailing to Many thanks in advance. Hope this will be acceptable to Kitner and Vronsky.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 18:43 - ID#57232)
Chemical Industry downturn? Wouldn't know it from the markets
SilverBaron: Sorry to hear about the downturn in your neck of the woods. How widespread do you think it is, as we are now seeing a glimmer of recovery in the computer industry? Hard to be sure though, as these markets have a tendency to rally even without anything substantial behind them. Think the baby boom trend is bullish for your industrial group, or the chemical group?

My take is that with the Euro budget balancing shenanigans over, the Europeans will do everything in their power to invigorate the markets. That may be bullish for months or longer, and bullish for gold/gold stocks.

We might actually reach 2yk with a correction only, and no crash. Eventually all off that ( mostly ) European debt incurred by the SEASian crisis will come home to roost as inflation, however.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 18:48 - ID#384350)
Yes, earnings estimates are lowered without much fanfare, and the masses clap and roar when the lousy earnings come out which beat the new revised lower estimates.

A year ago, earnings expectations for 98 were $6.00, currently they stand at $3.42 and are likely to drop further.

Wall St, you won't fool us. We are wise to your game. The End is Nigh!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 18:52 - ID#410198)
Gianni-Dioro,treehugger with a gun is better than a Jerry with a bomb
used to live in that neck of the world spent a year in Dublin St.Stephans Green sure miss the beer,breakfasts ( blood pudding ) the people ( women ) bookies.....outside of that I know why its green

(Wed Apr 15 1998 18:52 - ID#31868)
It can/is happening. The brain-dead don't know it yet.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:04 - ID#288295)
Macro economics is generally too much for my ant brain ( to borrow a phrase from t1 ) - I don't know about the baby boomer effect on chemicals, but chemicals, paper, copper, etc. tend to be fairly economically sensitive commodities, and typically are good forecasters. The only thing I can add is that the last time this happened, it was in 1986. Enough said? P.S. I don't know anyone ( anymore ) who is a saver in the classical sense - all are speculating under the guise of investing. At least us metals bugs admit to the speculation.

Good ol' boy
(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:08 - ID#26362)
que passo
I have been away for some time. I was disgruntled over the gold price and did not have anything to add. Isn't it wonderful that the euro will be backed in part by U.S. dollars. Paper backing paper. What a wonderful concept. Is is for sure that the euro will be backed 30% by gold? That should help some. Hey Studio R, how's it going?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:11 - ID#26669)
Silverbaron re economic downturn
Thanks for the early warning. What it sounds like is that your industry segment may be losing ground to cheap foreign competition just like the steel, timber, electronics, clothing and other industries before it? I think the time of purely American industry cycles is past. IMHO

You can see my point that one industry segment or part of the country can have stagnation while others are still inflating away and for the persons involved there is stagflation. Luckily for me my own service industry segment is fairly steady in terms of customer demand, but as it is overregulated by Washington the production costs escalate. And as the customers can only pay what thay can pay the prices fall with the economy. IMHO

My worm's eye perspective is the general definition of stagflation should be broader than the economists' "low growth and high interest", to include such regional or industry wide examples as you give. There are other costs than interest alone. IMHO

I had the experiance though of selling out of a timber farm not too long ago due to health reasons. Luckily when I developed my cancer we were at a cyclical product high and approaching a land price high and not yet fully restricted by land management laws so I didn't lose as heavily as I could have if I'd had to sell five years before. Five years before the timber price would have been less than he would have been willing to pay for. But if I were to have to sell this year it would have been harder for they buyer to have negotiated the worsened government regulations, zoning and land management laws and turn a profit so would not have been able to offer as much for the timber even though his cost basis would have been inflated. So he would have had less incentive to make the deal.

Gold is simpler, at least until they shut down the mines to save the striped hairy tunnel crickets. IMHO See you later : )

(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:15 - ID#288369)
Hey, Pard!!! Long time no hear....still buyin' mines? New e.mail address: Hope all is swell...looks like euro @ 10-15% gold backing. Yes, indeedy!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:15 - ID#401460)
Gold, Cheese Cake, & The Mac

I just can't win, I sold the last of my Apple stock a few weeks ago when I thought the market was going to tank.

They just came out with fantastic earnings and AAPL is up +4 in after hours trading.

"The Mac is BACK" Bruce Francis CNBC, and this is the guy who pi**ed off Jobs, causing him to get up and walk out on an inter view last year.

Well I still have TVX, RYO, PRU, and other great stocks.

And Cheese cake is still in favor, Sarah Lee is still climbing.

Gold vs. Cheese Cake, the continuing debate


Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:15 - ID#384350)
US Trade Deficit is its Achille's Heel
According to OECD estimates, the US will have a trade deficit of $213 Billion, almost double from 3 years ago. Unless the Dollar can continue to attract capital inflows ( flight to "safety" ) , the dollar will plummet. A plummeting dollar should equate to a higher gold price.

The US trade deficit simply shows that Americans are consuming much more than what they produce. This situation is going from bad to worse.

Gold down a dollar. IDCIBM

(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:17 - ID#388434)
Dow 100,000?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:19 - ID#288369)
@G.O. Boy....... euro @ 10-15% gold backing ( maybe mas ) ....Yes, Indeedy! I hope all is swell.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:22 - ID#26669)
silverbaron, one last comment for the nite.
At least we have the consolation that 1986 wasn't that bad a year for gold.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:26 - ID#347447)
Another Another?
ANOTHER, come back. LGB is gone. The coast is clear.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:28 - ID#45173)
@Gianni Dioro: re Y2K impact on banks
The Gartner Group did a survey of folks in my biz, high tech, and found that 37% plan to withdraw funds before 2000. That's like watching your pilot bailing from your airplane, or at least the co-pilot.

So hard to sort out the truth from fiction, even as an insider. Programmers tend to be negative and alarmist. There will be more and more clues as we get closer. For example, up until this year, Amex used to issue cards with 3 yr expiration dates. Starting this year, two year expiration dates. That's because many authorization systems won't accept xx/2000 expiration date cards; they need xx/99 expiration dates. Amex has stated that next year you'll get 1 year cards that expire 12/99. In fact, that's what I have. So does my office mate. And my boss. And my wife. If you've gotten a new card recently, take a look and see what expiration date you have.

If you get a 12/99 expiration date card issued to you 6/99, that means it's a mere six months before the yr 2000 deadline and Amex doesn't have the authorization problems fixed. What are the chances they'll have them fixed in the last six months? Best case, Amex issues xx/2000 cards that won't work in places where xx/2000 authorization doesn't work. Amex is a technically sophisticated, well capitalized company. How will technically unsophisticated, poorly capitalized companies fare?


Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:31 - ID#347447)
Retired Soldier
Stand at ease. Reminds me of the time when I was smoking hand-rolled Nicaraguans and Costa Ricans. Was in a Mexican restaurant in New York, alongside the bar, and the booth behind me was filled with about six people, all lit up with ciggies and covered in a blue haze. So I lights this Churchill
( I always liked BIG cigars ) and those candy ass cigarette smokers they start pissin' an' moanin' about my stogie. So I turn around and blow smoke in their faces ( like it made a DENT in the billows around them ( ( I've seen smoke grenades couldn't, mortar attacks! ) ) They shut up real fast, but they were real indignant. The moral of the story is buy gold.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:35 - ID#288369)
@M. Sheller....
Why did that story of your's make perfect sense to me? Perfect conclusion.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:37 - ID#347235)
@ Mike Sheller
As I said works every time unless you have to open up a big can of wupass

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:38 - ID#347447)
Night Writer
Fundamentalist, ey? The more you study astrology ( and I mean REAL astrology, not that sh*t that LGB and other nicompoops think is astrology because they haven't studied it THEMSELVES ) the more you realize that the scriptures, upon which FUNDAMENTALISM is based, are based on astrology. The 12 tribes of Judah, the Twelve Apostles, yaddah yaddah, duhhh?

get real. get into astrology and you will have an even deeper appreciation of the magic of life, and the veracity of the scriptures.

And get real, get gold! And thanks for your compliment.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:42 - ID#401460)
Reality Check

Barbra Weighs In On News Anchor

Jennings asked to look at her thoughts on politics and the media. "[He] was very critical of it," says Streisand. "He was saying, 'Oh, Jesus, I wouldn't say this and I wouldn't say that.' He just made me feel really awful."

( because he said Jesus? Strange use of names, why not Oh, Moses,... )

Jennings' response ( per Streisand ) : "Oh, Barbra, forget it, what does it mean?"

Streisand also tells Mirabella that she thinks Clinton-basher Dan Quayle is "a jerk" and that "the public knows the difference between Whitewater and Watergate and all these other 'gates' they are trying to pin on the President." The mag, now edited by Roberta Myers, goes out next week.

Dont you just love her.


Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:45 - ID#347447)
Retired Soldier
My Dinner With Tolerant ( last night - soon to be released on video tape ) reinforced how important it is to make HUMAN contact with people with similiar interests, idosyncrasies, madness, etc. We had a great time. My throat is still hoarse. But tell me, if you please of course, what is your military history. I too am a past soldier, and I still feel a kinship to those who were once GI's. Your silence on this matter will be respected, however. A personal reply, if deemed proper, could be ditrected to As you were.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:45 - ID#153102)
@The Coming Gold Crash
Gold will precede the DOW down.
It must, if you think about it.
They have the means to make it happen.
Tell me one reason they will refrain from using those means.

The party on the other side of the Barrick forward sales has a delivery interval of up to 15 years. This means they will be allowed to account for their promise of gold from Barrick at 100% of value. This means the other side of those forward sales is a party with access to rule making. Bank rule making, not FASB rule making. They can drive down gold and not effect the balance sheet of the gold forward contract holder. Smoke and mirrors.

They will drive down gold's price to keep the equity people on Wall Street out of it, to prevent Gold Mutual Funds from being, and attracting investment attention as stellar performers, as the DOW dies back.

It is all about the Balance of Trade Deficit and it always has been. When the costs of the greenback system exceed its benefits in trade, the gold traders will call their notes. That day is nigh.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:47 - ID#228128)
A truly disgusting stoogie that will turn anyone green within a 20ft radius
Try an Italian Perogi. They even look like a dried dog turd. FYI in case you want to be politically incorrect.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:49 - ID#384350)
EJ, Year 2K
The threat of year 2k is enough for me. Why would I leave my money in the bank, earning pathetic yields when I know there is even a tiny chance of computer error? Why would I hold large amounts of paper stuffed under my matress, when I know what can happen to funny money in a crisis situation? Confidence is everything. Why should I wait until 1999 before I take steps to get my money out of the banking system?

Do you get my drift?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:49 - ID#401460)
The Fed was Shopping again!!

Wednesday April 15, 10:43 am Eastern Time

Fed adds reserves via overnight system RPs

NEW YORK, April 15 ( Reuters ) - The Federal Reserve added temporary reserves to the banking system on
Wednesday via overnight system repurchase agreements, the New York Fed confirmed.

Fed funds were trading at 5-11/16 percent, above the Fed's 5-1/2 percent target, at the time of the operation.


(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:50 - ID#233181)
selling paladium
I bought palladium at $184/oz on 12-22-97 plus a $30/oz premium on the 1 oz coins and bars. I talked to the dealer who sold them to me and she said that while the spot was $317 the june month price was $287 and she would have to discount me another $25.

Am I getting hosed?

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:50 - ID#347447)
THEY are very powerful.

THEY are out there

THEY conspire

THEY are to blame

THEY will do us all in

THEY will only survive

THEY will reap it all

THEY made me fail

THEY helped me win

THEY lit my sky

THEY burned my skin

THEY brought on night

THEY dawned the day

It all depends

on THEM called THEY

(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:53 - ID#401460)
Gianni Dioro__A

3 choices remaining mattress, the Dow, or Gold.


(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:55 - ID#153102)
They is the Zodiac.
For you.
For me, they is the Governor of the Fund ( International Monetary ) and the President of the Bank ( World ) . The greenback PPT.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:57 - ID#347196)
Great evaluation ( of gold market ) !! Re your 14:40 post, "...watching the enormous tech stock rally. The trigger...Compaq's amazing ability to meet the radically lower expectations of Wall Street stock analysts...."

Some may not realize that the companies provide continuous "GUIDANCE" to these analysts. After all, if the analysts were to "miss the number" by much on the downside, it could have a big negative impact on the stock!!!

Regards; Mtn Bear

(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:57 - ID#255151)
Mike Sheller

The conclusion to your 19:31 post logically follows. It was Churchill who said, "Never was so much, owed by so many...therefore, buy Gold!"

(Wed Apr 15 1998 19:59 - ID#347235)
@ Mike Sheller
Started out as a combat photogrpher in Viet Nam- Wound up Senior
Career Counselor to the Largest Independent Armored Brigade in Army.
Sent details to you e-mail.

PH in LA
(Wed Apr 15 1998 20:04 - ID#225408)
Intellectual diversity.
The silence concerning the departure of rocket scientists on this site is deafening. As one who has publically taken to task the scientist for his sloppy intellectual posturing on numerous occasions, it would probably be in very bad taste to suggest a celebration. I will only say this: The self-indulgent whining delivered today as a farewell is ironic. After a concerted and largely successful effort to trash this site's intellectual diversity, by repulsing the best minds here, the trashman withdraws. Amen.

It has been suggested with some validity that the reason for ANOTHER's departure was not merely because of the puny efforts of said trashman; that other larger factors were involved. In the same way, it is hard to countenence the assertions of RJ, namely that it was his disaggreement with certain jingoists that convinced him to withdraw.

For thoughtful observers, the difference of opinion between RJ and F* was nonexistent. The Yale graduate in Macroeconomics has obviously forgotten what he learned back east. RJ is a professional. His profession is PM trading. He does serve the markets. One day he is bullish, another bearish. This has no bearing on his philosophical and/or intellectual worth as an individual. None whatsoever. Without professionals such as he, there would be no market. Nowhere for gold and the dollar to come to terms. Nowhere for any of us to buy and/or sell. Any student of economics should understand this. RJ certainly does. So do many of the rest of us. To use words like "whore" or "prostitute" is absurd. What RJ is, is a terrific writer, a very fluent thinker and an asset to any discussion. Not because LGB can make a few more percentage points on his investments by following RJ's "calls". But because he is a truth-seeker, like many others here.

The unprounceable one's philosophical "stand" against the sellers of gold was an absurdity. As are his slogans and mantras, which in his heart he also knows. RJ suggested that it was time to give them a rest. It was. What followed was just another personal assault on the point of view of another. Something that should not have been tollerated by the rest of us. It was never sufficient cause for the withdrawal of an intellectual presence as large as RJ's. Only RJ knows the real reasons.

The present writer is sorely tempted to announce his departure like the rocket scientists and company. He doesn't because he knows that noone cares. Besides, that is not why any of us is here, ie. to disclose personal decisions to uninterested readers. We are here to enjoy the intellectual discourse that until now has flourished here. Many of the best minds have departed and/or no longer post, thanks mainly to the efforts of certain posters to make this site contribute to their investment portfolios. Intellectual diversity? How does that contribute to my bottom line? It doesen't? Then "peddle your garbage elsewhere"! Unfortunately, many already have, to the loss of all.

Now, with the voluntary withdrawal of this short-sighted and selfish mentality, let us hope that Kitco can return again to its former golden age of intellectual diversity.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 20:18 - ID#255151)
Reference Desk

In a noble and selfless effort to serve Kitco, here is a site with links to all kinds of information, including, but not limited to News, Weather, Encyclopaediae, Finance, and Windows tutorials. It even has a Homework Helper arranged for various educational levels, for the chil'run.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 20:19 - ID#266110)
@JTF your 18:21 --- DEBT, why to be concerned about the Fed kind.
There is just cause to be concerned about Fed debt. I remembered a quote from the Grace Commission regarding Fed Debt back in 1992 and finally found the reference.

As Dr Gerry Swanson, economist from the University of Arizona stated...
"I hear the argument periodically that the reason it [hyperinflation] won't happen to us is that our debt is only 5% of our GNP. The Brazilian and Argentinian debts are only 8% of their GNP.."

Now we all know the kind of hyperinflation that these countries exhibited and since 1992 when this was reflected, our debt has risen. Whether we are approaching the 8% rate that correlated with hyperinflation in Brazil and Argentina, I cannot say affirmatively. But I do know that we're closer to the 8% rate than the 5% rate because the debt keeps growing at a substantial rate. If Brazil and Argentina felt the crunch, then we too are susceptible to the same malady.


The US is clearly the world's largest debtor nation. That is a fact. You cannot have endless prosperity built on a foundation of debt, but this is what the talking heads are feeding the masses. One of these days the sin of excessive debt will come home to roost. Right now, it's circling overhead and waiting for the opportune time to land. When it does, look out because it will not be a pretty sight. ---Why? Because the masses in the US are not considering it and they have no idea how it will impact them. They are addicted to debt and the only way to get the message across is for the markeplace to give them a whack upside the head - and it ultimately will.

People are going deeper in debt and showing paper gains. This is sufficient proof to discount the warnings from people like me. But when you play with landmines, you get blownup by them. Debt is tricky and demands respect. But US citiznes treat it as a playtoy.

I invite you to read two of my past posts:
1. Apr 09, '98 @ 12:33
2. Apr 08, '98 @ 13:05

There was also a third that I can't find right away. It drew a correlation to the factors that support an 11% inflation as brought to our attention by another Kitcoite. The post was in the same time frame in the 18:00 range. Maybe I will find it.

SUMMARY -- DEBT is a wicked master. If you can make a lot of money by compound interest, then you can also lose a lot of wealth when the paper assets go up in smoke and you owe money at a compounding rate. It's like chinese water torture --- the endless drip, drip, drip.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 20:37 - ID#153102)
@Debt @What Clinton Knows
The accummulation of deficit spending is one kind of debt. Interest is paid on it and when the greenback has to defended with higher interest rates, this burden could triple overnight.
The accumulation of liabilities by smoke and mirrors budget management in Washington is another debt.
The accummulation of trade deficits is a third debt.

Clinton knows a crisis is likely to occur in his Presidency. He knows he can make the same claim Lincoln made for law of nations authority to suspend the writ of habeas corpus and govern by right of might. He has the international law-enforcement authority ( the Attorney General and deputies ) in his pocket. He is Commander in Chief.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 20:38 - ID#269245)
Lock&Lode & ALL
Hello. I also follow US Debt with growing concern. I agree that this will lead to inflation eventually. For the short term ( next two years ) I only see deflation though. My question to you ( and all ) is this: do you agree that it is natural and not unusual that the largest economy in the world should also have the largest debt? My thoughts are that debt needs to be compared to income and in that context, the US is better off than a great many countries. I do agree with you that the absurd individual, national, and global dependence on credit in this age will be a major contributer to stability - and that, by the way, means gold will prosper. - c

(Wed Apr 15 1998 20:39 - ID#266110)
@PHinLA you 20:04 --- Here! Here! Intellectual diversity is imperative
I'm sure for posters that have been "dissing" others, that many readers could find cause to "dis" them. I read many posts and sometimes agree while at other times, I disagree.

By pushing the likes of ANOTHER and RJ out of the forum, the group looses valuable perspective. ANOTHER took great risk to post some of his/her materials. I challenge anyone out there to come up with infallible projections. ANOTHER reflected some trends that he saw. To take them as literal is a dis-service to him as everyone else in this forum. Afterall, who hasn't predicted the outcome of the Superbowl or some other event and been wrong?

When disagreement occurs, then public discourse that presents rationale thought and arguement should be the "weapons" brough to bear. Statistics and trends to support these positions only enhances the discourse. Then, by persuasion, people can come to understand and appreciate the complexity of the marketplace. That is one of the reasons why many people come to visit this site. TO OBSERVE AND LEARN.

To cut others off only kills off the richness of the interaction that this site has to offer. It is tantamount to the kind of shouting down that poliicians do to "right wing extremists". Well, I hate to say that the founding fathers were "right wign extremists". -- enough

Let's open up the discourse and press forward with compelling correlations. We all benefit from such a forum.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 20:40 - ID#269245)
correction - debt will be a major contributer to instability (weakness)
- c

(Wed Apr 15 1998 20:44 - ID#340302)
@PH in do write well however...
...again, let me stress that, in using the term "whore," I was merely borrowing from RJ's own prideful self-description.

Furthermore, I fully understand the role of the professional trader in making markets. However, my friend PH, this Kitco Forum is not the marketplace, right? Rather, it appears to be primarily an arena of intellectual discussion concerning precious metals. If a poster does not stake a polemical position ( but rather swings to and fro with the everchanging winds of a variable trading position ) , then said poster becomes no more than a fitful, hit-and-run propagandist for whatever trading position he took the day of posting. In that case, the poster is not arguing from any sense of personal conviction but simply from expediency...the need to preach his outlook, convince others to join the bandwagon, then snatch his profit, and disappear until memories fade and the poster may reappear, possibly as a reborn poster now representing an entirely new antithetical perspective from his previous attitude.

The only problem with that approach is that it makes for uninteresting, vapid argumentation as the chameleon, transmutable poster I describe is simply NOT an intellectual...he becomes a mere tradesman solely interested in the fast buck. Once achieved, he changes his polemic to make another fast buck in theopposite market direction.

PH, who wants to argue any substantive issue with such a mercenary individual? Who cares what his position is on any topic since it is not a position of conviction?

Finally, PH, with respect to my various slogans and declare that I am fully aware that they are "an absurdity." Well, actually, I certainly acknowledge they are fun and fanciful...but once again, I will restate this emphatically...they are just as valid as ( and not one iota more absurd than ) the various catch phrases and catch slogans disseminated all over Wall Street today for the great benefit of the New Paradigm disciples.

Here are just a few to refresh your memory: THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND...DON'T WORRY, BE HAPPY...ASIA, THE PAUSE THAT REFRESHES, etc., etc.

Do you follow?



Date: Wed Apr 15 1998 20:04
PH in LA ( Intellectual diversity. ) ID#225408:
Copyright  1998 PH in LA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The silence concerning the departure of rocket scientists on this site is deafening. As one who has publically
taken to task the scientist for his sloppy intellectual posturing on numerous occasions, it would probably be in
very bad taste to suggest a celebration. I will only say this: The self-indulgent whining delivered today as a
farewell is ironic. After a concerted and largely successful effort to trash this site's intellectual diversity, by
repulsing the best minds here, the trashman withdraws. Amen.

It has been suggested with some validity that the reason for ANOTHER's departure was not merely because of
the puny efforts of said trashman; that other larger factors were involved. In the same way, it is hard to
countenence the assertions of RJ, namely that it was his disaggreement with certain jingoists that convinced him
to withdraw.

For thoughtful observers, the difference of opinion between RJ and F* was nonexistent. The Yale graduate in
Macroeconomics has obviously forgotten what he learned back east. RJ is a professional. His profession is PM
trading. He does serve the markets. One day he is bullish, another bearish. This has no bearing on his
philosophical and/or intellectual worth as an individual. None whatsoever. Without professionals such as he,
there would be no market. Nowhere for gold and the dollar to come to terms. Nowhere for any of us to buy
and/or sell. Any student of economics should understand this. RJ certainly does. So do many of the rest of us.
To use words like "whore" or "prostitute" is absurd. What RJ is, is a terrific writer, a very fluent thinker and an
asset to any discussion. Not because LGB can make a few more percentage points on his investments by
following RJ's "calls". But because he is a truth-seeker, like many others here.

The unprounceable one's philosophical "stand" against the sellers of gold was an absurdity. As are his slogans
and mantras, which in his heart he also knows. RJ suggested that it was time to give them a rest. It was. What
followed was just another personal assault on the point of view of another. Something that should not have been
tollerated by the rest of us. It was never sufficient cause for the withdrawal of an intellectual presence as large as
RJ's. Only RJ knows the real reasons.

The present writer is sorely tempted to announce his departure like the rocket scientists and company. He
doesn't because he knows that noone cares. Besides, that is not why any of us is here, ie. to disclose personal
decisions to uninterested readers. We are here to enjoy the intellectual discourse that until now has flourished
here. Many of the best minds have departed and/or no longer post, thanks mainly to the efforts of certain posters
to make this site contribute to their investment portfolios. Intellectual diversity? How does that contribute to my
bottom line? It doesen't? Then "peddle your garbage elsewhere"! Unfortunately, many already have, to the loss
of all.

Now, with the voluntary withdrawal of this short-sighted and selfish mentality, let us hope that Kitco can return
again to its former golden age of intellectual diversity.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 20:44 - ID#286199)
Thanks for the Ref desk URL.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 20:46 - ID#78136)
Couldn't agree more your last post

(Wed Apr 15 1998 20:49 - ID#255151)

For good summary of US Debt, check this site-- US Debt over 5 Trillion ( 5,000,000,000,000 ) I have US GDP at just over 8 Trillion. I don't know if this is historically a high level of GDP/Debt or not.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 20:49 - ID#45173)
@Gianni Dioro: agreed, gold is the best protection against the
failure of confidence in paper and banks. But gold at what price? Is there an opportunity to buy at significantly lower prices than today's? What is your opinion of mozel ( @The Coming Gold Crash ) Date: Wed Apr 15 1998 19:45? My guess is that while futures traders get to manipulate the price of gold, at some point widespread lack of confidence in paper and banks will get the masses of depositors and naive stock market investors interested in the metal to the point where the price is out of traders' control.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 20:50 - ID#78136)
Enough already. I agree with what you are saying, but surely
underestimate the intelligence of all the posters by continuing
to point out the obvious about the trader in question. We are
far more interested in your thoughtful analysis of our common

(Wed Apr 15 1998 20:51 - ID#255151)
Corrected Link for Debt

Try this--

(Wed Apr 15 1998 20:56 - ID#266110)
@clone ---- All debt is not created equal
There is a big difference between the kind of debt that is generated under a gold monetary system and a paper monetary system that is not backed by any gold. Gold acts as a restrainer while paper only fuels the fire. --- Why? Because it can be generated out of thin air, in large quantities, and at next to no cost.

The generators of paper are able to suck borrowers in and take them as prisoner. The lenders use the borrowers as hosts to gain their meal via interest paid. But the ultimate end game is that if the host cannot continue to pay the interest ( produce enough blood ) then the lender can bring this non-production to a hasty end... and take the life of the host. This means taking all of the possessions offered as collateral.

Wealth that is cantilevered on paper debt that is based on further paper debt and further paper debt -- will utlimately create a whipping action. We saw it in Asia when the sins of an inflated currency were flushed out and the day of reckoning came home to roost. And we haven't seen the end of the scenario yet.

When it comes to the US, then look out!

GOLD acts as a restraining device. It dampens out excesses in the markeplace and acts as a natural referee. No one can pull the same kind of games as we see with the issuance of debt in the form of US currency.

( At some time in the future I can provide a more compelling arguement, but I must depart from the forum for the day ) . Aufwiedersehn.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 20:59 - ID#340302)
@PH in final addendum to my previous post...
...I did not cause RJ to withdraw from this forum. I have no such power. Rather, RJ capitulated to a powerful pro-gold polemic which he simply could not defeat.

You understand the distinction?

Bottom line: his retreat is a positive sign as predominant gold bear logic and arguments fall apart in the face of a New Gold Paradigm.



(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:00 - ID#340459)
Gold will definately go up if General Public's in North America/Europe is perked.
Japan or Asia are not cognizant of the fact that the Soros/IMF nexus is milking them dry. Also, the people who are Gold Market Makers and set the Gold price every day are currently too powerful in comparison to a handful of goldbugs and their modest investments. General Public is still very confident of Stock Market's continued performance into the future.

Perhaps, Ken Starr's report that will be presented to Congress and would be freely available on Internet by Starr will change the Public Opinion that likely will shake the Presidency alongwith The Wall Street euphoria and their paper pyramids.

The Following might also push Gold up:
- Decline of US Dollar valuations
- 10 to 15% correction in Dow
- Japanese buying Gold with their excess liquidity from sale of T-Bills
- Euro gold backing above 20%
- Oil moving Up sharply

What do you think ?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:04 - ID#368244)
@ PH in LA
P H--I asked you on one other occasion if you are invested in the precious metals markets. I asked you this because I have a half million reasons to want and expect advice from those that are investors. You spend much time condescending the comments of others that I know to be professional investors. If you are an investor, or market analyst, then I would like to know your feelings on the direction of gold. Why, and for what reasons, you believe it will move in that direction.

If you are some type of mind analysis expert, might I suggest you try the pyschic hotlines. This forum is for real people, investing real money. Farfel, LGB, RJ, LB, to mention a few, have a vested real money interest in the price and the direction of gold. If you do also, then sir, I am all ears.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:06 - ID#153102)
@Bulldog @Debt @EJ
@Bulldog Double on. I like the trader's contributions.

@Debt Collateral for US Debt: Your Vehicles; Your Land and appurtenances. Read your titles. You are not absolute owner. Who is your partner in ownership ? Government.

@EJ I agree that eventually the Federal Reserve, IMF, and World Bank will be unable to depress the gold price.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:08 - ID#335190)
Stress @ FWIW
Ten Commandments for Managing Stress

The Table of Contents lists other services available from the University Counseling Center.

1.Thou Shalt Organize Thyself. Take better control of the way you're spending your time and energy so you can handle stress more effectively.

2.Thou Shalt Control Thy Environment by controlling who and what is surrounding you. In this way, you can either get rid of stress or get support for yourself.

3.Thou Shalt Love Thyself by giving yourself positive feedback.Remember, you are a unique individual who is doing the best you can.

4.Thou Shalt Reward Thyself by planning leisure activities into your life. It really helps to have something to look forward to.

5.Thou Shalt Exercise Thy Body since your health and productivity depend upon your body's ability to bring oxygen and food to its cells. Therefore, exercise your heart and lungs regularly, a minimum of three days per week for 15-30 minutes. This includes such activities as walking, jogging, cycling, swimming, aerobics, etc.

6.Thou Shalt Relax Thyself by taking your mind off your stress and concentrating on breathing and positive thoughts. Dreaming counts, along with meditation, progressive relaxation, exercise, listening to relaxing music, communicating with friends and loved ones, etc.

7.Thou Shalt Rest Thyself as regularly as possible. Sleep 7-8 hours a night. Take study breaks. There is only so much your mind can absorb at one time. It needs time to process and integrate information. A general rule of thumb: take a ten minute break every hour. Rest your eyes as well as your mind.

8.Thou Shalt be Aware of Thyself. Be aware of distress signals such as insomnia, headaches, anxiety, upset stomach, lack of concentration, colds/flu, excessive tiredness, etc. Remember, these can be signs of potentially more serious disorders ( i.e., ulcers, hypertension, heart disease ) .

9.Thou Shalt Feed Thyself / Thou Shalt Not Poison Thy Body. Eat a balanced diet. Avoid high calorie foods that are high in fats and sugar. Don't depend on drugs and/or alcohol. Caffeine will keep you awake, but it also makes it harder for some to concentrate. Remember, a twenty minute walk has been proven to be a better tranquilizer than some prescription drugs.

10.Enjoy Thyself.

It has been shown that happier people tend to live longer, have less physical problems, and are more productive. Look for the humor in life when things don't make sense. Remember, you are very special and deserve only the best treatment from yourself.

The Table of Contents lists other services available from the University Counseling Center.

Take Care

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:23 - ID#45173)
@All on tolerance of opinion diversity and tolerance of criticism
Have patience awhile; slanders are not long-lived. Truth is the child of time; ere long she shall appear to vindicate thee.
- Emmanuel Kant

It is one thing to show a man that he is in error, and another to put him in possession of the truth.
- John Locke

New opinions are always suspected, and usually opposed, without any reason but because they are not already common.
- John Locke

'Tis the business of little minds to shrink; but he whose heart is firm, and whose conscience approves his conduct, will pursue his principles unto death.
- Thomas Paine

He who wishes to teach us a truth should not tell it to us, but simply suggest it with a brief gesture, a gesture which starts an ideal trajectory in the air along which we glide until we find ourselves at the feet of the new.
- Jose Ortega y Gasset

I disapprove of what you say, but will defend to the death your right to say it.
- Voltaire

And finally my favorite:

Common Sense is not so common.
- Voltaire

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:24 - ID#210235)
How much did you get paid to single-handedly destroy this site and the validity of metals as an investment vehicle?

I hope it was more than 30 pieces of silver, with inflation and all.

I remain, yours truly outta here .. Promey

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:25 - ID#78136)
Great Post earlier about the debt and inflation. I read about
deflation/inflation and debt and look within my community. I
live in Calgary. Houses in my subdivision are up $75,000 in
the last 6 months. It would be my guess that a high proportion
of those earning under 100,000/year could not pay their bills
out of savings beyond 3 months. Our Federal Gov't just recently
will guarantee mortgages of 95% of the purchase of any home. In
Calgary, this has turned into buying mania. My neighbour who
built his home when I did just listed his house for $360,000.
He will make about $160,000 or an 80% non taxable capital gain.
I think I have my wife to the point where she is considering
parting with her dream home. What will I do? I'm buying the
retreat just to be safe with y2k. What I should do is buy a
smaller house for $200,000 have the gov't give me a guaranteed
mortgage for $190,000. This adds to your debt numbers, but in
this Province, when you get foreclosed, you simply walk from
your property if the fair market value is less than the amount
of your mortgage. There is no personal covenant to pay, the
Mortgagee only has the land as security.
That situation is an anomoly for this jurisdiction. Inflation
is here, debt loads are oppressive and we have a lot of "rich"
RRSP holders with it all riding in the overvalued equity market

Your boy BJ might come out of this smelling like a rose. There
is an Executive Order in place, you can read it on Gary North's
site, where he can essentially declare martial law. What event
could trigger this? He could wholeheartedly accept y2k, tell
the people the truth for once that this may be the thing Ed
Yourdan, Yardeni, North and more all the time are forecasting.
The Commander in Chief takes over unfettered, no Starr, no
problem. That is but one example, anthrax from Iraq, whatever.

This economy with companies showing lousy earnings, yet overvalued
stocks, cheaper goods from Asia, loose credit, mega bank mergers,
is in for a very harsh surprise. Clinton's martial law could
be the only thing that keeps this market from melting.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:25 - ID#368244)
correction to earlier post
My deepest apologies to you E B. My 'hunt and peck' style of writing, lends itself to many typos. And to you PH, I respect everyones opinion, as long as it's kept to the topic at hand. Let's talk precious metals or at least have something nice to say to each other. We will most likely be miles ahead at the end of the day, and $ too, might I add.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:26 - ID#255151)
Search Tool

This is a repeat, but here goes. Here is my favorite search engine-- Try typing in Gold, or Rothschild, or BIS... It usually comes up with some goodies.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:27 - ID#427357)

Isure ( @ PH in LA ) : MAny SUPPORT THIS VIEW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:33 - ID#288369)
Cope says "hello" and thank you very much! ( my sentiments also ) The OWB album cover is metallic SILVER and blue...that's why it reproduces so poorly. Cope faxed me your note.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:34 - ID#269245)
LGB, F* - In addition to the points that PHinLA and L&L have presented I would like to inform you that I have refrained from reading either of your posts of late. I recognise that both of you have insightful things to say, but I have grown weary of sifting through all the irrelevant BS that so often accompanies your posts. I am happy, F*, that your wife is a good cook, but I find it very hard to want to read anything else you have to say after that. You are both humorous and clever, but I really do not understand why you have to use so many words to get your point across. And then you both have some compelling need to defend yourselves and repeat your previous point and waste bandwidth and talk and talk and talk... If we want to attract the kind of individuals on this forum who have insightful things to say, I think we should at least attempt to sound intelligent. I understand that light hearted posts contribute to this forum by breaking up the monotony of "gold this... palladium that..." I too have sung the Golden Mantras - once. But these days I try to avoid posting unless I really have something to say - in this way, I think more people read my posts. ( Hint, Hint! )

- c

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:37 - ID#60137)
Kitco Exiles
I have been coming to this place of worship for two years now with several defections. There are a few familiar faces still: Selby, D.A., IDT, Ray, who seem to have weathered the storms. One feature which stands out in their psychological inventories is their innate rationality. Goldbuggery is a terrible burden to bear for most. It seems to require madness, and even amongst the nominally sane very strange notions about about the nature of the universe and man. The insane we have too, including Bart's favorite schizophrenic who is by himself responsible for the majority of the exiles. Some have been so excoriated by the goldbuggers that they never return, but most do from time to time come back like alumni if only to see whether gold might finally have become just another, if interesting, commodity or investment vehicle instead of a psychological profile. But the ivy is still on the walls, and old Goldbugger University lives! Hip! Hip! Hooray!

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:42 - ID#384350)
EJ, Price O' Gold
If you look back to last Oct 24, a Swiss think tank announced that Switzerland sould dump most of its gold. The POG dropped $16 and when the stock market tanked on the following Monday. The illusion was already in place, created to con the average Joe on Wall St that Gold is not an asset to be thought of as a flight to quality. In that light, they might try to manipulate it a bit lower again before the next crash in equity markets.

However, people like Prechter see Gold falling due to a lack in purchasing power most likely caused by a crash in financial markets.

Gold is at average production price. If it goes considerably lower, with Western stock markets intact, there would be enormous buying. It appears that there are a lot of people who are waiting on the sidelines waiting for that $250 gold or even sub $200 gold.

Gold may go lower to take out the suckers, and when it does make its final lows, there won't be much of a window of opportunity to buy.

I'm relatively new to the game. So I'm buying at these prices trying to build up a position. Once my position is in, I will likely add to it if gold goes lower and/or as we get closer to 2000.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:43 - ID#233181)
Midas & CB's
Midas, thought that I would toss in my view of a potentially important emerging shift in sentiment relating to CB reserves as mentioned in your post. April 15 21:00. If the public begins to perceive the CB threat to be exaggerated, the POG may realign its trend with fundamentals?

Subject: Re: casino update
Date: Sat, Apr 11, 1998 12:22 EDT
From: Capforte

It has been, I'll say suggested ( because nobody appears to know the exact details ) that much of the gold selling has been between CB's. This I would expect is a matter of record. The belief that much of the decline in gold prices is more the result of paper derivative transactions than actual CB gold flow to market, is gaining more acceptance. Belgium recently "sold" 299 tons lowering reserves to 15% ( as
reported to the public ) Germany, France and Italy however, hold substantially larger percentages as reserves and due to GDP, population and other criteria, will have more influence over the ECB. Some say banks can continue to sell up to the Jan 99' date, others suggest that once formal meetings begin early this May/June, sales by the larger nations ( to fall to 15% ) would destabilize the value of reserves held by those now at 15%. The prices at
which reserves are calculated differ widely as well. Based upon these ( variable ) qualities, 15% would appear to be a minimum...just a guess.
I'm confident that they will use there collective abilities to manifest a financially creative scheme. I believe that one of the most critical aspects of this issue is that the Bundesbank will exert substantial control over the process. Germans don't want to see the Deutsche mark maligned. Any changes in reserves by member nations after Jan 99' would be subject to what has been suggested as a "lengthy review".


(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:43 - ID#60137)
Oh, and I forgot
Professor Vronsky, philosophe, raconteur, and good judge of claret. Cheers Professor!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:44 - ID#153102)
BJ ain't my boy. I never took him to raise.
He doesn't need an executive order to do what Lincoln did. Congress knows that. But, like you say, he has one anyway.
He won't call it martial law. Doesn't have to. Hardly anybody in USA knows what habeas corpus means anyway.
Americans can't walk away from mortgages like you can in Calgary. Changing that rule would make Clinton popular. He can always change it back for the bankers after he is vindicated in office by popular acclaim. I wouldn't expect any of this to forestall the "market melt".

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:44 - ID#255151)

Old Goldbugs never die, we just post away!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:46 - ID#401460)
Bombay Buyers 100,000,000 +

Wednesday April 15, 7:37 pm Eastern Time

INTERVIEW-Rosy future seen for India gold demand-WGC
By Anshuman Daga

BOMBAY, April 15 ( Reuters ) - India's easing of rules in the gold market, rising personal disposable incomes and low prices have combined to create an upbeat future for gold demand in India, a top official of the World Gold Council ( WGC ) said on Wednesday.

``If you have the largest market in the world roaring at the fastest pace, that should underline that the fundamentals are extremely positive,'' Schneebeli told Reuters in an interview.


Go Monica .Com

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:47 - ID#78136)
search engine
Auric, many thanks for the inference search engine. Very nice.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:50 - ID#420116)
EB - 19:28 Y2K, credit cards. . .
Credit card validation will not be a major Y2K problem. The relatively few isolated cases will be the first Y2K problems to be identified and corrected. When a credit transaction fails due to the 00 or 01 date, no updating occurs, the bank is notified, the bug in the validation program is easily corrected.
Not to say that there will not be major problems.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:51 - ID#287305)
Mozel: The Coming Goldcrash
I found your earlier post about a crash in the price of gold very interesting. I haven't heard too many people express this view on this site without having some sort of anti-gold axe to grind.

As much as I hate to comtemplate this outcome, I would really appreciate it if you would elaborate on this further. What would you consider a crash? Do you think merely keeping the trading range very tight or slightly downtrending would accomplish the same affect?

What strong hands do you consider are shorting gold? Private investors? PPT? Wouldn't a "crash" in the POG generate forces and inertia that might have the same effect as a huge spike, causing the game to unravel?

Thanks in advance for your thoughts on this matter.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:54 - ID#234218)
(@EJ) Re: your 21:23
Some very good quotes and most applicable. I would, however, like to add a couple.

People's minds are changed through observation, not through argument.
Will Rogers

More words ain't good for anything in the world, except to bring on more argument.
Will Rogers

The one thing that made this forum great, was it's diversity. The one thing that is destroying it is the struggle for uniformity. Everyone is entitled to an opinion without personal attack. All have made good calls and all have made bad. It is the purpose of this forum to express and exchange "THOUGHTS", not to attack them.

There have been things said by many that were unneccesary. For all those who have left, I did not always care for some of the posts, but I truly miss the meaningful dialogs and opinions. I do not have to agree with what is said to appreciate the view, or the person. I hope that some point in time you will all return to a kinder gentler forum.

Respect cannot be learned, purchased or acquired-it can only be earned.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:56 - ID#384350)
Central Bank Selling, and Sylvester
I think I read somewhere that Euro central banks will have to finish their gold sales this month, in May they will be locked in when they will announce their reserve make-up for the Euro.

Also, about a year ago I read in The Sun tabloid that Sylvester Stallone bought 350,000 acres of land near Bariloche in Argentina. He paid $5 million for the lands comprising of lakes, mountains and trees. He was thought to have the intention of building a big house on the lands.

Bariloche is a ski resort in the Andes not far from the Chilean border. The jet set community likes to ski there especially from Santiago.

Didn't someone say that Soros was buying farmland in Argentina?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 21:58 - ID#288369)

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:03 - ID#255151)

My favorite late Twentieth Century philosopher, Yogi Berra, would have said about Kitco-- "Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded!"

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:03 - ID#30116)
Dow crash, Intel and other things...
Look, the definition of a bull market is a market that goes up on ANY news. If the news is 'good' then the market goes up. If the news is 'bad', it is thought of as a buying opportunity.

As an example, the much feared Asian debacle has now been re-spun as a 'good' thing because it will keep inflation at bay and prevent the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates. Crowd psychology at work.

The fly in the ointment, of course, becomes the trade balance and the cut-throat price competition as foreign competitors devalue their currency to gain market share. Now THAT will be THE problem down the road, but for now, blues skies with fair weather clouds. The only thing that could screw it all up would be a 'back door' cold front, otherwise know as a 'currency' debacle somewhere else ( Canada? ) . Of course, the ultimate debacle will be when the dollar hits the wall, that is when the stock market will take a big hit and gold will rise.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:05 - ID#240316)
Mike Sheller - What about Mars next Monday?
I noticed that Mars will be in conjunction with NYSE Venus next Monday. What do you think is the influence that signifies? I realize that Mars is a symbol of energy and the will to impose self upon the world in individual charts, but what does this mean for a metal? Also, Mars has a traditionally negative symbolism, which modern astrology seems to be attempting to "spin" into "only excess Mars is negative in that it can get you into conflicts." The spin seems to say that with a little self control you can make Mars work for you, not against you. I don't see how a metal, such as gold, can exercise "self control," so is Mars a negative symbolism for gold?

Any thoughts would be appreciated. I am an amateur at this as applied to people, and down right ignorant in application to "things." Any hints on how to approach application to markets would be manna to me.


Tantalus Rex
(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:07 - ID#295111)
Barrick Gold Short Position
Barrick Gold stock is shorted at 14 Million shares as of the end of March. That's way up from when gold was trading under $300. Some people got a lot of guts or are just plain stupid or both. The bubble is going to burst, that's for sure. The question is when. Placer Dome had a good meeting today. I'm thinking of swapping my Placer Dome and Newmont for more Barrick shares and physical gold? Any comments on this strategy is greatly appreciated..thx

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:08 - ID#288369)
I got to shake Yogi's ( and Whitey's ) hand today and got autographs on old ball cards. They're in town to dedicate our new ballpark and unveil a wonderful statue of MICKEY MANTLE that graces the front of our park.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:08 - ID#256326)
sic transit gloria money...;- ) ) ) )

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:09 - ID#426220)

Poor South Korean stock market continues to plummet - down almost
another 4% today.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:12 - ID#45173)
@Gianni Dioro, iAtolU, and mozel
Gianni Dioro, my sense is that $280ish was the bottom, that gold price holding up relatively well during the latest DOW rally and other equity bullish news portends higher gold prices should any of the events occur that you suggest, or some others we cannot forsee. I am ambivalent about my current gold position. I'd like more, but suspect CB pressure to below 300 ( just a gut ) in the next two months assuming no wierdness in the DOW, so I'm holding off on further purchase for the time being.

iAtolU, I use the credit card issue as a guidepost. The authorization issue is indeed minor. Another indication that will boost my confidence that Y2K will be resolved significantly: When I begin to see my ATM receipts formatted so it's possible to print a date such as 20000115. It can't be done today and the deadline's less than 18 months away. Take a look at your ATM receipt. How will they represent the date? And that's merely output. What about input from forms-based aps, card readers, barcode readers, etc. DB apps that store date data in fields that are incorrectly defined. And of course programmatic operations on that data ( date-time string conversions, memory allocation for arrays in excess of 6 bytes, etc. ) . I'm looking for some tangible evidence of progress. I saw a yr 2000 date on a car registration sticker the other day. At least that's something.

mozel, I think ya got the wrong guy. I'm not in Canada. Maybe mixing me up with EB?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:12 - ID#26669)
Aurophile re goldbuggery and other words
I had to come back from my self imposed exile ( actually just a nap ) to add another few words to your goldbuggery lexicon. You'll have to figure out the definitions yourself.

Kitcoitus, which can be meant in several ways, some dirty, some not.
Aurophilia, aurophobia... opposite meanings.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:14 - ID#413109)
Humor or what?
Date: Wed Apr 15 1998 21:34
clone ( LGB, F*, PH, L&L, ALL ) ID#269245:-
This is the very point I made a day or so ago.
You just took the time and trouble to knock a few posters, but otherwise
had nothing positive to add. The point "YOU" made, was that you wouldn't-
Now that's funny!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:15 - ID#22882)
The Shi_ flows unabated and my shovel broke. HELP!, HELP!

I personally believe that both Farfel and LGB/LIBERTY/ect.,ect and ect., had certain unfullfilled aspirations in life.
The asperations perhaps to become literary giants, but when subjected to the what is normal failure, they became somewhat frustrated.
Then one the incurable goldbug, the other an incurable braggert found KITCO a place where the desire to practice their hopeful endevour was granted.
Both should openly apologize to BART for the opportunity he has afforded them to make this site their own personal SOAPBOX and pay Kitco a fee for the use of bandwidth.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:15 - ID#153102)
"What would you consider a crash? Do you think merely keeping the trading range very tight or slightly downtrending would accomplish the same affect?"

I would consider a crash a drop in price sufficient to deter the technically driven from going long. Not being the most technically astute poster, I can't offer an exact figure. But, it would in my estimation be a number sufficiently lower that a technical talking head could come on CNBC and explain its "significance".

"What strong hands do you consider are shorting gold? Private investors?
PPT? Wouldn't a "crash" in the POG generate forces and inertia that
might have the same effect as a huge spike, causing the game to unravel?"

The United States Government via its monetary agencies is shorting gold. It is the policy of IMF and World Bank to reduce gold's significance in international trade. If you want people more easily to let go of something, make it worth less or more costly to hold. ( That's how they got fiveliter's gun, basically )

Somebody posted gold is priced at production. I think it is priced at less than production. Gold below $360 is less than the Italians are carrying it on their books ( At what price did the Euro authorities allow the Italians to value their gold to make the Euro hurdle ? )

It looks to me like the game is unravelling. That is no reason for the US Government not to continue its War on Gold policy to the bitter end.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:18 - ID#255151)

I saw Mantle, Berra, Maris, and Casey Stengle play in the early 60's on a trip to New York. As I was walking into Yankee Stadium, some guy who was walking out, handed me a ball he had caught from their batting practice. Still got it. That was a Golden era for baseball.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:20 - ID#368244)
@ Studio R
Your an autograph hound too!

Will Rodgers, could have been president! But would not have wanted such a lousy job.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:21 - ID#153102)
@EJ Mixed up your posts with Bulldog's

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:21 - ID#255151)

Saw Casey Stengle manage, not play.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:21 - ID#384350)
If your buying physical, what is 3% ( 307-298 ) I worry about the price getting away from me.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:24 - ID#373403)
Isn't it great that our government is dedicated to keeping the poor in their place? Investors are allowed to make infinite wealth in the equities markets. CEO's are allowed to make infinite money in corporate compensation. Those able to save are bailed out after the S&L's profit from bad loans. But let wages and employment rise just a little bit and the full force and fury of the government comes down on that in the name of inflation fighting.

No wonder the poor give up and are resigned to collect welfare.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:25 - ID#288369)
Yep! I'm a Yank fan since the 50's. Listen to this.......Geo. Steinbrenner would not allow stripes to be on Mantle's #7 uniform on the statue....he asserted that it was an infringement on his Yankee franchise property. I wish he would come visit Oklahoma...we have a special welcome planned for him.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:25 - ID#411163)
BGO golds new announcement that they are to aquire Arian Resoures
on a 3.3 shares of ARA for each share of BGO. BGO has recieved finance commiments from Barclay's bank-London for a non-recourse loan of $us $40,000,000 plus a US$ $20,000,000 BGO corp loan. The mine is will be built in the Russian Far East. Any comments? Looks to be a done deal pretty much. ARA close down @$C0.45/share today.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:26 - ID#255151)

Also, I have the 1957 "Yankee Power Hitters" baseball card, with Mickey Mantle and Yogi Berra.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:27 - ID#401460)
Interest Rates

Wednesday April 15, 9:49 pm Eastern Time

Nikko economist sees Fed rate hike hitting stocks
NEW YORK, April 15 ( Reuters ) - The stock market could take a hit later this year as the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates by 0.25 percent amid inflation heating up, the trade gap widening, consumers keeping up spending and wages rising, a Wall Street economist said Wednesday.

Brusca expected the consumer price index, a common inflation measure, to hit an annualized 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter, up from an annualized 2.3 percent in the 1997 fourth quarter. He cited recent jitters in the bond market, which have sent the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond up to 5.88 percent from a low of 5.70 percent in early January.

``The bonds are starting to get skeptical that inflation will remain low,'' Brusca said.


(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:33 - ID#255304)
@ J Disney
Things looked a little uneasy this am so I stayed out. Someone sold a little harmony today? I'll be watching pog closely for another dip. There was support for TVX however. The street seems to like that stock. How did the rand fare today?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:36 - ID#288369)
@Isure...... (and Auric...send me that card, ol' pal)............
Will Rogers..."I never met a man I didn't like" What would the Kitco response to this famous quote be? "Sorry Will, we just don't get it."

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:38 - ID#45173)
@Gianni Dioro: gold price getting away
I look at it this way. Gold is still close to an 18 year low, plus or minus a few percent as you say; the DOW at an all-time high. Certainly gold might go lower, and the DOW higher, but the downside risk to gold is far lower DOW downside risk. I'm betting the values of equities and gold are contradictory over the long term ( next 5 to 10 years ) , although some here feel that this may not be the case because history cannot guide us in these times.

Gold may not make me rich. I tend to doubt it will, except perhaps in relative terms should a real calamity befall us. But it is as likely a deliver a 100% to 400% value return ( adjusted for inflation ) over 5 to 10 years if we inflate our way out of the coming debt crisis, and at lower risk than any other investment I know of. I've tried to find the near bottom and near top of these markets, not their exact top or bottom. I've already missed the exact top of the DOW by getting out just below 9000. And I did not buy physical until it was up to 295. I may buy more if it finds it's way below 300. But I no longer obsess about the stock market now. I try to watch it with detached curiosity, like a man at a circus watching amatuer trapeze artists through the cracks in his fingers that are covering his face.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:38 - ID#153102)
It's a good point you made about the Percent. It seems you are not generally nutty in my revised estimation.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:40 - ID#348286)
@Rack - BGO
I don't know why BGO is paying the equivelent of 1.12 a share for .45 cent shares. This is a Dogs Breakfast environment for Gold companies,
and everything can be bought for 1/2 price.
Why the premium ?????
Is it that good?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:43 - ID#234218)
@ Studio R
Kitco response to Will Rogers' quote. "Your a pro-Clinton, gold shorter!"

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:44 - ID#401460)
Shanghai Composite
1322.019 -2.688 -0.20%

Hong Kong
Hang Seng
11265.43 -105.63 -0.93%

Nikkei 225
16233.57 -65.73

KLSE Composite
626.01 -18.61 -2.89%

PSE Composite
2182.66 -27.9

Sri Lanka
All Share
710.80 +0.10 +0.01%

South Korea
Seoul Composite
451.58 -16.29 -3.48%

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:46 - ID#26669)
themissinglink re welfare
Steve, let me tell you something you might not have known about our US welfare system. There is a type of disability income called SSI which is given to people who don't qualify for SSD. The ones on SSD are able to work a limited number of hours, go to school et cetera and develop plans to advance themselves over a number of months or years. ( Provided their individual case worker is at all sympathetic. But like IRS agents the social security workers in these positions have little accountability for client satisfaction and can destroy clients on a whim. ) The ones on SSI have nearly zero chance ever getting off the dole. The smallest amount of work such as one day a week sweeping floors will make them no longer eligible. FEAR is one of the biggest reasons they won't try to better themselves. IMHO

NEITHER one can accumulate significant assets to start a business. If they dare to start a bank account or hold any wealth at all in the hope of saving to get off welfare they are cut off and billed for back payments. This back billing and compounding interest is similar to the system the IRS has to torment taxpayers, just not as well publicised. IMHO

On a more upbeat note, I hope that you've progressed in your jewelry design project for the one ounce piece. The more I think about it the more I think that its the sort of thing I would buy if it was a style I like. But like I said before I think 22k would be more durable. IMHO

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:47 - ID#255151)

Will might have said, "Never saw a day go by at Kitco without a few worthwhile reads." It is easy to scan past topics and posters that you don't want to read.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:49 - ID#420116)
RE: EJ - Y2K
Yes, we will have to get used to looking at a two digit year date with 00 or 01 in it. Unless the old format had a four digit century/year. But that will be the least of our problems. The reason that the authorization issue will be quickly resolved is because it will be in the best interest of those involved.
But what about those who benefit from Y2K errors? Such as new found paper wealth on a bank statement.
Will they complain?

John B__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:50 - ID#77133)
Good Gold fundamentals in Pakistan
BOMBAY, April 15 ( Reuters ) - Pakistan's gold industry is in
a nascent stage but market indications are that the country's
demand for gold remains high, a top official of the World Gold
Council ( WGC ) said on Wednesday.

"Recent research indicates that demand in Pakistan is
anywhere between 100-150 tonnes annually," WGC's Regional Chief
Executive Rolf W. Schneebeli said. I have to say that we are just starting covering Pakistan and so our knowledge of it is extremely limited, Schneebeli told Reuters in an interview.

Pakistan had started earlier than India in liberalising its gold markets, he said. "The taxation system ( in Pakistan ) is extremely low. The import of gold bullion costs 2.5 percent -- ( consisting of ) 1 percent import duty, 1 percent corporate profits and about half-a-percent service charge."Everything after that is essentially tax free."

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:50 - ID#384350)
Mozel, thanks
You know, my grandfather once called Warren Buffett a punk kid, and said that he was "nuttier" than he thought. So I guess I'm in good company.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:50 - ID#288369)
@Auric Rogers......
I'll drink to that.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:52 - ID#335190)
America, Yes! Also Canada @ This guy has a large site,interesting material (food for thought)
"Money is the best messenger." Yiddish proverb


Capitalism is now entering the final stages of total collapse. The final stages of depressions  Bad companies drive good companies out. The chapter 11 domino theory  In debt to debt!  A crisis  Nations in chapter 11  Chapter 11 protected bankrupt companies are destroying viable companies. The managed depression 

......................A NATION LOST  LOGIC ON VACATION
 Lloyd Gillespie

...........Social Contract, Psychology, Education, and Welfare

What good is a democracy under a totalitarian economic structure?  Capitalism. Democracy lacks one thing  Democratic economies. Under or overfunded governments are always the undoing of nations. Yet, even if you reduced government spending to zero, the nation would still go bankrupt! $432,000,000,000 ( billion ) was the total government payroll for `92.

The government embezzlement of America began in America's shell government linked to the tax havens. The offshore problem started in her highest citadels of power. Institutions often cower nations' spirits to sub-world paradigms of false logic.

The reason you are probably unaware of the world governments' embezzlement of the entire planet is due to manipulated numbers. Actually, the numbers are all there as I have an accurate official copy of all world transactions directly off the U.S. Treasury's desk  compliments of Secretary Benson.

The problem lies in the manipulated interpretation of these same numbers. Corruption is only stupidity, and life and politics are no more than uncontested lies! All politics is international and always has been. We should encourage our elected representatives to scrutinize all secondary legislation verses primary?!

.............................Speculation and Inflation

THE BEAR SWALLOWS THE EAGLE  Speculation  The balance of all markets. No one is manipulating the system - per say - The system is manipulating itself!

The hyper-inflation bear positions of sinking nations, swallows the eagles' bull positions of floating nations  A historical fact. Computers multiply speculation  Extremely. Speculation is the center of democracy. Manipulated capitalism  Computer driven deflation  Short dollar  High dollar. The speculative economy  Skies of speculators 
The hyper-inflation bears. The monopoly of computerized exchange rate theft  Round tripping  Speculation looping. Speculation is the balance of all thoughts, beliefs, and theories. The known opportunities of floating exchange speculation create a de-facto leveraged buyout of the Federal Government. The monopoly of exchange rate theft 

The world's short exchange underdealing. Major nations' hyper-inflations turn eagle nations' bulls to bears. Capitalism can not survive in a deflationary state  Competition to the lowest common denominator  Busted  Capitalism busted.............!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:53 - ID#228128)
Rational Goldbug = Oxymoron. My only hope is that we are all crazy like a fox.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:55 - ID#401460)
Japan & G7

``We emphasised that it is important to avoid excessive ( currency ) depreciation where this could exacerbate large external imbalances,'' the G7 said in a communique issued after Wednesday's meeting. The comments echoed almost word-for-word a statement issued at their previous meeting in February.

But Wednesday's statement added a sentence urging Japan to implement quickly a strong programme of fiscal measures and structural reforms, which would also help correct the yen 's ``excessive depreciation.''

U.S. Treasury Secretary Rubin, however, said Japan had failed to provide vital details of its latest stimulus plans, and warned that the markets would be the final judge of the measures' effectiveness.


(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:57 - ID#30116)
@currency stuff... Drunken sailors anyone?
Canada doesn't like a weak currency.

Then there's Japan.

Then there's the 'G7's' concern over the share markets.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 22:59 - ID#30116)
@one more time!
Why does this happen!!!!!

Canada doesn't like a weak currency.

Then there's Japan.

Then there's the 'G7's' concern over the share markets.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:00 - ID#30116)
Time to call it a night.....
Good night.............

John B__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:01 - ID#77133)
Gold uptake in India still positive
INTERVIEW-Rosy future seen for India gold demand-WGC
Reuters, Wednesday, April 15, 1998 at 19:37

By Anshuman Daga
BOMBAY, April 15 ( Reuters ) - India's easing of rules in the gold market, rising personal disposable incomes and low prices have combined to create an upbeat future for gold demand in India, a top official of the World Gold Council ( WGC ) said on Wednesday. "We have a growing class of gold consumers in India. One of the effects of liberalisation in the gold sector is that gold is available easily at reasonable prices," WGC Regional Chief Executive Rolf W. Schneebeli said.

India's middle class, estimated at about 100 million people, has traditionally driven gold demand in the country. "If you have the largest market in the world roaring at the fastest pace, that should underline that the fundamentals are extremely positive," Schneebeli told Reuters in an interview.

India strengthened its position as the world's largest gold-consuming country with demand surging 45 percent to an all-time high of 737 tonnes in calendar 1997, WGC data shows. "A large part of the demand in India is driven by disposable incomes but I think lower prices are not the
explanation for every thing," Schneebeli said. "Our research shows that for the the first time, people have spare money. What they do with the money is to buy gold," he said. . .

India's main demand is for gold jewellery, given and used at an estimated 10 million weddings, absorbing nearly 300 tonnes of the metal annually, Bombay Bullion Association estimates show. "Assuming the economic development continues without much changes, I would see a return to a natural annual growth rate of about 10 percent as possible," Schneebeli said. Based in Dubai, Schneebeli oversees the industry-funded WGC's operations in the Middle East and India.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:05 - ID#288369) your inquiry of PH in LA......
You already know I'm not an analyst....but I am an investor in physical gold and silver. That's my deal. I have purchased gold coins and bullion coins in good-size lots at spot prices of $311, $306, $295, $287, $283, $295, and $300 ( my most recent, being Argentinos ) . I believe....and I will buy more...and I want DELIVERY!

I am now making up my plan to buy stocks....listening closely to J.Disney, T#1, G.Cheesehead, the Preacherman and the Vronskyman. I is the time. 50/50 NA/RSA

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:05 - ID#255151)
I know things about the Gold and other precious metals markets that only a handful know, as a result of RJ posting here. For that knowledge shared, a sincere thank you.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:07 - ID#347447)
ol' paint
For a self-confessed "amatuer" you have a nice understanding of some of the principles behind Mars' "personality." You have highlighted a very interesting conjunction. On Monday the 20th Mars will be on top of NYSE Venus, at 5+ degrees Tuarus, which I maintain is THE gold degree in the horoscope of the New York Stock Exchange ( I have lots of historical stats to demonstrate this ) . This bear market which is now finally abating was synchronous with a Uranus square to that degree which lasted for the past year. Astrologically, I called this bear, and its final Fall/Winter '97 bottom, in 1995. I think there will be a visible excitement in the gold market on Monday and Tuesday, but I am not prepared to judge which way prices will go. Mars brings short term blips, and only the quick can profit by its influences, I have found. I've used it in stock charts occasionally, but usually along with other planets in combination, rather than alone. My temperament requires more time to set up and anticipate a position unfolding ( though as an Aries, I am ruled by Mars ) . I like the slower planets. Best case scenario - Mars breaks the gold price to, or above, 319. Worst case, Mars kicks gold in the teeth for a few days and sets off renewed selling and despair for a time. Support at 296 is critical. Keep looking up.

MOZEL: If you got this far - re your 19:55 - Touche' - well put.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:14 - ID#373403)
The design is coming along. It is a sort of hieroglyphic, judaic, latvium pendant. The problem is getting any accuracy for the weight as a cast piece. I doubt there will be enough money in this project to justify stamping dies.

I agree about the 22K being magnitudes more durable than 24K but I think that the time I will be selling any volume of these will be a time when people are looking for a good VALUE to STORE their money around their necks.

Investment grade jewelry. I also have hundred of unique designs which would look good in 24K. As long as there is not much labor involved it should be mutually beneficial.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:16 - ID#45173)
@6pak: Lloyd Gillespie is interesting indeed...
...only wish he were more coherent. He offers a string of factoids without a thesis. Conspicuously absent is a time scale. Nations rise and fall in slow motion in human life terms. If the USA were to begin its fall into obscurity today, if you lived here you'd experience it as a torturous string of forward and backward steps on a downward slope dragging on for decades, perhaps the rest of your life. Such is the momentum of nations.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:17 - ID#335190)
American @ More material, Gold and Silver & other standards?

Is there any intelligent economic and political life out there...?{Vote}
This crazy old world forces me to remember times when people were a wiser lot... I been cruising this new internet looking for a little serious truthful economic and political insight. But, I can't find much! And, it isn't from not knowing where to look... I am deeply sadened by what I am finding.

"We need a fixed value monetary system. At the present time, we have none. Under floating exchanges, America is simply a powerful ship on an ocean, with no rudder.

Old gold, silver, and other known standards will no longer work. They will not work due to the massive increases in communication's speed, the varied endowments of nations' natural resources, and encrypted international speculative opportunities.

Therefore, we need a new system. INTERNAL EXCHANGE CLEARING is such a system. It is an entirely new fixed value enhancing - [production standard] - monetary system, to benefit all humankind."

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:18 - ID#384350)
The Real Thing
I love this. Bloomberg reports Coke's earnings up 8.6% whereas the Financial Times has them dropping 13%. The difference being a one off gain from a sale last year. Nonetheless, is Coke's PE justified?

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:19 - ID#255151)

A swig of Honey Brown "Extra Rich" Lager to ya as well. Have you checked into the 40% Kennedy Halves? Good, cheap way to accumulate physical Silver, mate.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:19 - ID#254201)
SnowBird - Here are my thoughts on the S&P. This is not a predication but more like a frame work of one possible route for the S&P over the next several months. Today may turn out to be a B wave high in a 3-wave correction. If so I would expect a C wave down to approx. 1090. From there another leg up going into the summer peaking around 1160 -1170, Dow 9500-9600. From the summer highs a steeper decline into the 48-month cycle lows due in the 4th quarter this year.

Gold and Silver no changeif June gold opens below 308 tomorrow it will head toward 300. If the xau falls with gold, 300 probably will not hold. Buy May silver on a spike down between 5.85- 5.70.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:23 - ID#227228)
Time to go up....maybe
XAU is setting up for a move up me thinks, although it is a little too "textbookish"

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:24 - ID#153102)
@Gianni @OldNews
From your conclusion, I presume Buffet is your grandfather's brother or some such.


Press Communiqu

"At its meeting on 9th September 1996, the Board of Directors decided to
invite the nine central banks or equivalent institutions listed below to
become members of the Bank for International Settlements by subscribing
for shares of the third tranche of the capital of the BIS. The
institutions in question, which have been increasingly involved in
central bank co-operation at the BIS in recent years and already make a
substantial contribution to the Bank's activities, are as follows:

Banco Central do Brasil
The People's Bank of China
Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Reserve Bank of India
The Bank of Korea
Banco de Mxico
Central Bank of Russian Federation
Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency
The Monetary Authority of Singapore

Formal accession to membership by these institutions will take place as
soon as the necessary formalities relating to the subscription of shares
of the third tranche of the Bank's capital have been completed."

Gee, I wonder how these new members will vote.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:25 - ID#288369)
@Auric....I have a few Kennedy halves, but....
I can just barely lift my Walking Liberty halves...gosh, they are BEAUTIFUL. Gots'ta' hit the sack...been a long day, friend. BBT

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:28 - ID#45173)
Sweet dreams, dreamers.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:28 - ID#255151)

G'day, mate. I may have just met my match in enthusiasm for Gold! I LOVE GOLD!!

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:30 - ID#347447)
Ahh Kitco
I have been here at Kitco for about a year or more now ( can I please log off and go home???!!! ) and in that time I have seen, on several occasions, Kitco go "down the tubes", spoiled for ever by some malcontent or other, or besotted by some kind of intellectual foodfight . I have been told by numerous posters, several every few months, as they leave, that "it ain't what it USED to be," and I have seen many "driven off" because they were too bullish, or too bearish, or too non-committal, on gold. I have been derided because I am an astrologer, spat upon because I am a gold company director, and reviled because I am an advertising man ( now there's 3 strikes against you if ever ) . But my head is high ( Sorry Ted, that's NOT what I meant ) . I come to Kitco because I want to learn more about the PM markets, because I want to find out who is conspiring today to take away my freedom and bollix up the world, I want to know what fellow investors and market observers are thinking, and because I want to get some tasty recipes. I like to make money too, but I also like to have a good time doing it, in the company of intelligent, witty, openminded, friendly people. I can take humor, and tweaking, and I enjoy it when its done well. There are many here who can do that. They are gems. I have no use for people, no matter how intelligent they are, who are gratuitously nasty, pompous, and narrow minded. That is not why I seek the company of other people. I don't mind ANY opinion, so long as it is expressed in a reasonably civil manner. I find that the gaping wound of every flareup and banishment or abandonment at Kitco closes up like a pebble hole in the surface of a pond, only to be followed later by another ( no pun ) . Perhaps some day I too will stalk off into cyber darkness after a clever parting speech ( speach ) and final barb. But until that moment, I find it hard to accept that someone would toss aside the by and large wonderful diversity and richness of wisdom and opinion at this forum for a few folks who can be easily ignored. Perhaps those who are driven to such reactions have not established enough of a meaningful contact with those they enjoy and admire, tragically, or worse yet, perhaps they have not FOUND anyone to enjoy and admire. That cannot be the fault of Kitco, but, then, we are all imperfect are we not. Let us think of the invisible ( and some very tangible ) friends we have here, before we home in only on the negatives. And if we HAVE no friends here, perhaps dear Horatio, the fault is not in the stars, but in thine own self. It is better for each and every one of us to do this, and it will be better for Kitco in the end. Workers of Gdansk...g'nite!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:33 - ID#190411)
You aren't leaving, say it isn't so. Or is it only for a few winks.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:38 - ID#210235)
I'm not giving up on this beautiful place, not a chance. Need to think a bit and hum a little hum. Kind of like Winnie the Pooh. Bye till I have something to say.

If anyone wants to have a copy of the article in Skeptical Inquirer about which I posted a few days back, send an address to I'll make up a few mailable copies.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:40 - ID#335190)
EJ @ 23:16
Yes, Gillespie is interesting. He has produced a lot of pages. I hope others will touch his site, and maybe someone here has knowledge, as to the status, and back ground of this guy.

He has an AFL/CIO banner on one of his pages. He also mentions the need for Unions to get educated. He could be funded by the AFL/CIO.

I do not have a problem with the rank and file, I do not trust the leadership of union's, I consider these leaders ( jerks ) , to be well paid POLICEMEN. ( Corporate security )

Take Care

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:44 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother, I caught a few seconds of TV programm on RSA
matters. Archbishop T was upset about Mr.B or Mr.B
was upset about archbishop T, something like that.Somebody
refused to comply with Shaaka Zulu's commission or was
it Shaaka Zulu himself who got upset with his commission?
Could you please briefly report on the subject of Mr.B
archbishop T and Shaaka Zulu's commission?

Your curious brother Oris.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:46 - ID#224149)
Greed And The net
VronskyThe Whole World should Come To Death But Gold and S.A stocks ---Get A Life You Fool Of Greed Or Fool Of Fools Or Poster of Idiots Away to see Ted Move the new Bathtub True Life

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:54 - ID#368244)
@ Studio and All

I am invested in the physical, as well as stocks. I don' t believe that gold is dead, that's why I try and take a long term view. I did not agree with Another, but I loved his comments. It is simply my view that you have to be an investor to make or receive recommendations.

I could not tell you {Studio} how to run the oil business, because it is not within my realm of understanding. What is more, you would probably not take kindly to my attempt. On the other hand, if I owned a 100 oil wells you might be prone to listen.

I don't beleive we have to have a world war, or a major catastrophe for gold to go up. Time will take care of that, and if it doesn't, it's only time.

Gold is about 20% of my portfolio. Diversification is the key, I hope!

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:58 - ID#238422)
Mike Sheller
Mike, your post 23:30 is so delicious, warm, kind, smart and
beautiful that I want to take it to my bed tonight...I'll eat
leftovers tommorow morning for breakfast.

(Wed Apr 15 1998 23:59 - ID#256250)
All I can say it is tracking just like last time they added eligible gold reserves...
So I assume they do this to drive down paper gold make their short term monies, then pay back the bullion they borrowed to scare the market and eligible stocks continue to fall. Added a bit at the end, on copper and el nino that you might like

-- -- -- -- TOTAL DELIVERY NOTICES -- -- --
SO FAR FOR April 4,689 48 4,062


Gold 30,000
Silver 16,000
H.G. Copper 25,000


0 0 33,795,629
-966 0 55,191,887
-966 0 88,987,516

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today
475,158 0 0 0 0 475,158
159,146 0 0 0 0 159,146
634,304 0 0 0 0 634,304

FWN: 140230 GMT

Closing N.Y. Copper: Up Sharply; Demand, Peru
Weather Cited

sharp gains today, with the May contract trading to its
highest level in 20 weeks.
Sources cited a steep drawdown in London Metal Exchange
( LME ) stocks of the metal, which came on the heels of a
series of other recent smaller declines. North American and
European demand remain firm, sources said.
All of this is occurring at a time when storms, said to
be related to El Nino, are causing serious damage to roads
in Peru and are disrupting some of that nation's copper
supply, added Richard Padron, director of research with
Concorde Trading Group.
"If you see any type of recovery in Asia whatsoever, it
could eventually lead to this ( market ) getting back to $1,"
said Padron. "That's really the only thing keeping a lid on
it right now."
May futures peaked today at 86.30 cents, its highest
price since 87.30 cents back on Nov. 26. For the day, the
May contract settled 385 points higher at 85.65 cents.
Warehouse stocks of copper have fallen another 8,525
metric tons ( MT ) to 315,050 ( MT ) , according to figures
released today. This, coming at a time when copper prices
had already been on an upswing, prompted some short covering
today, both New York and London dealers said.
"The first thing that stands out is obviously the
demand," particularly with falls in LME stocks, said Padron,
referring to factors pushing up copper.
"But apart from the strong demand here and in Europe,
one of the things I think that has been playing a role
little by this El Nino and the kind of weather
they're having in Peru," said Padron. "It is having a major
impact on the roads in the mining area, where they've had to
shut down some of the highways leading into the mines where
they take out the copper."
Some reports are emerging from Peru suggesting it could
be up to three months before metal can be moved out of the
central highland areas, said Padron. A couple of the mines
where problems are said to be occurring are Cia. Minera
Sayapullo and Cia. Minera Milpo.
Many of the Peruvian mines extract not only copper but
other metals as well, such as zinc and lead, said Padron. He
added some reports are suggesting as many as 40,000 to
50,000 tons of various minerals have been backed up.
Support for May copper lies around 78 cents, with
resistance around 88 cents, said Padron.