TO Whom it May Concern: Focus your critcisms on the comments, not the people making them. I'm repeating this sensible suggestion made earlier. It will greatly enhance the quality of the discussion.
Playing Commodoties Conservatively Dept: You might consider shorting far out of the money silver call options now. The premiums are generous. For example Dec 900 silver calls settled at 12 cents.
Wednesday April 15, 5:30 am Eastern Time
Russia PGM exports can resume soon -state reserve
MOSCOW, April 15 ( Reuters ) - Russia's acting Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko has signed a government order setting out 1998 export quotas of platinum group metals ( PGMs ) , including platinum and palladium, an official at the State Precious Metals Reserve ( Gokhran ) said on Wednesday.
``Yes, he ( Kiriyenko ) signed the government order,'' said Gokhran department head Valery Goncharov. ``It was on Monday or Tuesday, and this is the last document needed before exports can begin. They could start soon -- tomorrow, the day after, or in a month -- whatever is needed.''
Goncharov said he did not know when talks on 1998 contracts between Russia and its clients would be held, adding that Almazjuvelirexport, Russia's sole PGM export agent, was responsible for setting up the negotiations.
Almazjuvelirexport was not immediately available for comment. Sergei Gorny, deputy director of Almazjuvelirexport, said on Tuesday the agency was still waiting for the government order, which was the final bureaucratic hurdle holding up exports.
Palladium fixed at a fresh 18-year high of $328.50 an ounce in London on Wednesday after touching $349.00 on the spot market in Asian trade earlier. The price rise was on concerns over extended delays in Russian supplies.
Russia supplies 60 percent of the world's palladium needs and one-fifth of its platinum demand. The rare white metals are used in applications ranging from dental equipment and jewellery to catalytic converters in cars.
away...to Moscow...
londehunter
Farfel...that was a good post you made last night. Just ONE question, how do you get to Hollywood from Bel-Air? If you don't buy oil then do you have one of those electric cars? No disrespect intended F* sir. I just want to know if you drive a fossil fuel car...And how is your house lighted?? And how is your pool heated?? I hope I am not opening a LARGE can-o-worms here....I just get curious sometimes... ( uh huh ) . I Don't Care...I Bought ONE Mountie....IDCIBOM..... ;- )
Just in case you haven't read this AM report
on Platinum & Palladium.........
Palladium Market
Palladium's
Price Exceeds
Gold's
Price more than
doubles in a year
NEW YORK --
Palladium surged,
reaching an 18-year high
in the cash market and
rising above gold for the
first time since the
downfall of fixed
exchange rates, as a
delay in Russian exports
continued to keep
supplies tight.
The spot price for
palladium was at $328.05
a troy ounce late in New
York, up $34.05. Earlier
in the day, it reached
$329.05.
Spot gold was at $308.25
an ounce, below
palladium for the first
time since the collapse
of the Bretton Woods
accord in 1971, which
ended the pegging of
major currencies against
the U.S. dollar.
At the New York
Mercantile Exchange,
the June palladium
contract pushed higher
by $9 to $287.05 an
ounce.
"We're still waiting to
hear from the Russians.
They said the first week
of April. The first week
is gone. We still don't
know anything," said
George Gero, senior
vice president of
investments at
Prudential Securities in
New York.
Palladium shipments
from Russia, which
supplied 56.6% of the
world's palladium in
1997, are being held up
by a delay to
government approval of
export contracts for
platinum group metals.
In 1997, Russia didn't
sign those contracts until
the second half of the
year.
"There's no sign of an
abatement in the
Russian showdown and
supplies are getting
tight," said Adrian
Lismore, vice president
of metals, mining and
commodity derivatives
at Bankers Trust New
York. "When palladium
trades above gold, that's
certainly something to
be looked at."
Mr. Lismore said the
lapse in supplies has led
some consumers to look
at other metals.
"Consumers are
effectively turning to
other metals where they
possibly can," he said.
"You're basically down
to crunch time here and
people need the metal.
You're in a very limited
market of supply
concentrated in one
geographical sector."
Aran Murphy, senior
economist at the
Platinum Guild
International Inc., an
industry trade
organization in New
York, said consumers
could use nickel or
platinum instead of
palladium. Palladium is
used in electronics and
for catalytic converters.
"Consumers of
palladium are certainly
having a look at
alternative metals for
substitution. On the
lower end, they are
looking at
less-expensive metals
like nickel, and on the
higher end they are
looking at platinum,"
Mr. Murphy said.
However, he said such
substitutions won't affect
prices yet.
"Substitutions aren't
likely to occur at such a
rapid pace," Mr.
Murphy said. "The
substitution effects are
going to be longer term
as opposed to Russian
shipments which, in the
more near term, will
bring the prices down
more rapidly."
The Wall Street Journal,
April 15, 1998
I guess it is only right for the discussion to turn to taxes today. I was wondering if anyone here had any idea how many separate taxes England was burdoning the colonies with in 1776 and how many Americans have to pay today? Just off the top of my head we've got Income Tax, Property Tax, Sales Tax ( except here in Oregon although they'll be trying another run at it again soon ) , Gas Tax, Cigarette Tax, Luxury Taxes, Several Telecommunications Taxes, Social Security Tax ( being 27 I never expect to actually see any of the SS I pay again money again ) , plus all the fee's and other charges we have to pay whenever we actually try and use a government service.
I'm sure there are many more. I just have to wonder when the American people are going to get fed up and start throwing tea into the bay again. It's because of these taxes that I have become interested in gold. I don't have to report any gain or how much of it I have to the IRS ( at least for now ) .
Thanks
WARNING: The surgeon general has determined that consumption of this here cheesecake may cause obesity.
I think it is time for a tax credit for anyone who can document having eaten their weight in carrots during the tax year.
Relationship to gold? Well, the government decided the dollar is valuable, and enforces that, as opposed to letting the people decide what is valuable. When the government retreats from its artificially expanded roles, we may find it has an effect on PM prices.
Just don't touch my Social Security!
Food for thought, since last post still in aether: European markets on rebound post budget balancing antics for EURO launch? Very likely. European money supplies will now loosen up to boost the European markets and economies -- bullish for gold and US markets too.
Everyone notice that Hewlett - Packard took off today after months of nothing? Seagate went up yesterday, too. My guess is that computer stocks have finally bottomed -- at least for the next few months.
Taxes pay for:
Military -- so you have a nation of freedom to buy gold
Teachers -- to make you smart enough to buy gold.
Police -- to protect your gold from bad guys
Local govt taxes -- so you have someone to keep order
Propery tax -- so there are schools so teachers can teach
Gas tax -- So there are roads so you can drive to the gold store.
Telephone sales tax -- so there is an internet so you can trade gold
Income tax -- so we can pay politicians' to make laws about gold.
Inheritance tax -- when you die someone else can take care of your gold.
Q: How does one make a strong Euro, now that European budget balancing antics are behind them, and credit can be loosened a bit? Inflationary effects will not filter back to the 'fiat' currencies for at least a year, I would guess -- though effects on commodities/gold are likely to occur sooner.
A: The best way to make the EURO strong with commodity prices and gold prices rising would be to announce that the EURO is backed by say 30% internal and external reserves, and the gold has already been purchased. Reevaluing gold reserves at current market prices would be fair game. The only problem is how to announce this in some low-key manner, so that any short-term market correcting effects are minimal.
The big SEASsia debt problem is probably a non-issue now, as I would guess that the solution will be to roll the debt over into some new debt issue, as it was done over twenty years ago the last time the SEAsian markets melted down. So the european markets have been saved, with the price being inflation a few years from now.
The only wild cards I see in the above scenario would be a world-wide crisis of some kind, which generally also would be bullish for gold, unless it were from a Japan implosion, with associated gold sales. Unlikely, but possible, given the stranglehold of the Yakuza.
Those of you who grumble about the US economy/government being riddled with corruption should think about Russia and Japan for comparison. We may have problems in the US, but others have it worse.
The volume and frequency of such has increased lately, IMHO.
Again, the following is not intended as investment advice:
http://www.do-you-love-me.org/wsomers/bobrick.html
I agree with you that the big agriculture interests want to stomp out any kind of competition. However, I also feel that at this point in time the only thing they can do is try to assimilate it. The public is slowly ( very slowly ) starting to wake up to the fact that what they put into their bodies really does matter and that most chemicals do not "just wash off." No matter what people may think or beleive they all have one thing in common...they do not want to die. This fear of death or joy with life will keep them searching for ways to make it last as long as possible and truly organic products can help do that. Most everyone has a vise ( smoking, drinking, eating too much chocolate ) that might get them in the end, but at least they CHOOSE to do that. With current system of food production no one has a choice as to how their food is grown and what is put on to it. More and more want to have that choice and they will do what they have to in order to keep it. Just like many posters at Kitco have chosen to buy gold despite all the attempts to undermine and discredit the metal. There will always be a market for gold, and I beleive their will always be a market for good, pure food as long as people are able to grow it and offer it. If the government takes either of those rights away it probably will not be around much longer.
so how does your wife prepare them so well for dinner to make you go yum yum?
One key threat to continuation of the US bull stock market ( pre y2k ) is debt/bankruptcy nibbling away at the stability of the markets, making them vulnerable to shocks. Does anyone know relative bankruptcy rates on an age adjusted basis, or debt load based on age group? Any historical comparisons on a relative basis?
My point is that to truly guage the threat of private debt to the US economy, we need to know how much debt there really is for each age group, as a percentage of assets. For example, I would be really worried if all age groups were not saving. But -- what if the average 45 yo American was saving as much as the average Japanese at 45? Maybe the difference is only because there are proportionately many more younger Americans. I doubt this, but I would like to see actual confirmatory data.
I am less worried about the short term effect of federal debt, as the effect of this is delayed, based on Federal revenues. Our achilles heel is probably private debt, and runaway private bankruptcies deflating the markets. A failure here would trigger the federal problem a year later.
The only other variable that I can think of that might buypass the baby boomers and hit the US economy directly would be a run on the dollar, as that would drive up interest rates, increase federal debt expenses, and crash the markets. This is probably less likely while AG is at the helm.
Comments, web sites, anyone?
My take is that with the Euro budget balancing shenanigans over, the Europeans will do everything in their power to invigorate the markets. That may be bullish for months or longer, and bullish for gold/gold stocks.
We might actually reach 2yk with a correction only, and no crash. Eventually all off that ( mostly ) European debt incurred by the SEASian crisis will come home to roost as inflation, however.
get real. get into astrology and you will have an even deeper appreciation of the magic of life, and the veracity of the scriptures.
And get real, get gold! And thanks for your compliment.
- c
As an example, the much feared Asian debacle has now been re-spun as a 'good' thing because it will keep inflation at bay and prevent the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates. Crowd psychology at work.
The fly in the ointment, of course, becomes the trade balance and the cut-throat price competition as foreign competitors devalue their currency to gain market share. Now THAT will be THE problem down the road, but for now, blues skies with fair weather clouds. The only thing that could screw it all up would be a 'back door' cold front, otherwise know as a 'currency' debacle somewhere else ( Canada? ) . Of course, the ultimate debacle will be when the dollar hits the wall, that is when the stock market will take a big hit and gold will rise.
Will Rodgers, could have been president! But would not have wanted such a lousy job.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980415/canada_unh_1.html
Then there's Japan.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980415/g7_support_1.html
Then there's the 'G7's' concern over the share markets.
I am invested in the physical, as well as stocks. I don' t believe that gold is dead, that's why I try and take a long term view. I did not agree with Another, but I loved his comments. It is simply my view that you have to be an investor to make or receive recommendations.
I could not tell you {Studio} how to run the oil business, because it is not within my realm of understanding. What is more, you would probably not take kindly to my attempt. On the other hand, if I owned a 100 oil wells you might be prone to listen.
I don't beleive we have to have a world war, or a major catastrophe for gold to go up. Time will take care of that, and if it doesn't, it's only time.
Gold is about 20% of my portfolio. Diversification is the key, I hope!
Find out more about Kitco at info@kitco.com, or call 1-800-363-7053.
Copyright © 1996 Kitco Minerals & Metals Inc.
Earl - its good to read your writings again. I like mozel's writing also. I see you have hooked up with Mozel already. Maybe its time to start reading Kitco daily again - scanning though the nights postings I see alot of old handles. Even the confused followers are still around. I guess they never go away.