Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:01 - ID#347127)
@ Poorboys re: your 23:46

Post again when you are sober.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:04 - ID#344308)

attenuate the noise......speed reading is the key.

eloquent as usual mike. you wrote speeches in another life...

lgbito...the kudo you gave to realistic...the re-post of his post
showing comex stocks.........wooooooooooooooo.....see your point.har.esd

the peopleo come, and the peopleo go....they think they know....very few
really mozel and earl....they know. kitco nobel laureate's
both. lgbito is just as gumbified as another for allowing their messages to be sullied by others "words".......consider everything....and
take the high road...the truth will stand the tests of time. post away
and make my day---- another.....turn the filter to high.. lgbito...
quit sulking and post some-thing worth-while every now and then..

anyone with 'the truth' will not give-up the fight...if another is for
real, he will be back, as this forum is the place for his message, if it can stand the light of day...mozel has a laser beam....another purported to have one also...we'll see.

another....the bits have been around for years....where are the pieces?


(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:08 - ID#255151)
Myrmidon-- Re poorboys

At times Kitco can be like the Wild West. I've shot from the hip on occasion myself. Kitco is big enough to accomodate an occasional barroom brawl.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:10 - ID#224149)
Yes ---But Who Understands ? The Waiter
Mike Sheller ---Solar Maps, Jigsaw And everything is becoming Indian corn--- Luck I sure Hate this Mars thing now---- Get It Out Of My F----n Life Away for Paprika Hot No Piggy Power _away till things pass

(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:11 - ID#344210)
@never say never spud#223
Ifffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff after 20 years Global continues perservering in spite of a validated SEC ( Investigation ) , and the adhoms so easily squoked. Due diligence is a very difficult objective.

One measly dollar.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:14 - ID#210114)
Thank you robnoel-A !! (18:23)
To All: I have consistantly argued against the gold standard in this forum. robnoel_A has provided the arguments against it. Thanx!!

Keynes lives!!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:19 - ID#411163)
I haven't got a clue as to what BGO is up to. It is plain that ARA shareholder's got more than a double here today and I got what?
I assume that the deal was done to benefit the top people in each company. Otherwise the news would have been shown up in share prices
before this. If this is good or not, longer term rests with the POG.
I think we have seem the bottom but think a big move either up or down is now in the cards-which direction is anybodys guess. The next few days will tell. It will be fast I think either way it goes. BGO management has sure put it to us shareholders this year. Wish I knew
more . Sorry

(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:20 - ID#373403)
Besides my house, I am invested in precious metals, precious metal funds, and precious gems. I REALLY, REALLY, REALLY hope were right! Kinda bet the farm on it. Luckily I bought in at $292/oz and $298/oz.

I am up a nice tidy 18% on the mutual funds since December/January. Maybe I am just being greedy waiting for $30,000/oz. What you say?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:22 - ID#370218)
Egos and Balls
It is perhaps more of an education for me to read the posts as of late for it reminds me of my youth when certain kids would leave the game and try and take the "ball" with them. They understood not that the "ball" was not the "game". I have nothing of value to post regarding the short term movement of gold. At $304 more Dec. contracts. At $300 or less, more physical. Stops in place just in case. Do not and did not believe spot would hit $305. Shows what I know. Contingency plans in place. Smile, worse things can happen than gold @ $300 again. Good night all. Tom

(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:24 - ID#344308)


shoot from the hip...aim for their lip.

and take no prisoners..

gold will always fold quite neatly into my way of life...and it
is a way of fanatacism.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:29 - ID#42365)
missin link...
know when to fold... thats the best thing I learned out of going to the casinos in my youth... kept more money that way.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:32 - ID#238422)
themissinglink\your 00:20
No, you are not greedy, you are just very patient.
I wish I had this ability of yours.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:37 - ID#57232)
Some excellent posts about debt
Lock and Lode: Your 20:19. I think you misinterpreted my post earlier about US Federal debt. Including entitlements, it is over 20 trillion. Corporate and private debt is at least another 15 trillion last I checked.

My point was that a private debt crisis due to explosive growth in bankrupty proceedings is more likely to crash the US markets well before the rise in interest rates causes a federal debt default. There is at least a 6 month lag time between personal bankruptcy and a federal receipts crisis. Hence ( chaos ) stability theory would suggest that private debt was more critical in destabilizing the US markets. I was reasoning that a US currency crisis -- given the strong US markets at the moment -- is less likely than a private credit meltdown.

My long term premise is that the US markets will continue to rally due to the baby boomers pouring money into their 401b's, economic savings/benefits from the information revolution which is predominantly in the US, 'flight to safety' from other markets, and a possible economic recovery in europe. My guess is that we will not have any real crises for the next several months, and possibly not till 2yk. That would be good for gold stocks, especially if Europe opens the currency flood gates.

Mozel: I agree with you that 'the powers that be' are quite capable of dumping gold to protect the US markets, as I suspect they did in October. I lost about 10k in two days when gold/gold stocks went down with the markets. I again pose the question 'what about the BIS?' That I think is the wild card, because I suspect they will set a lower limit to how low they will let gold go. I think the BIS is getting more clout again, and probably has something it can use to cause the US to back down from its anti-gold stance. Another threat to our fledgling gold bull is the Japanese meltdown I have brought up several times before. Unlikely, but could create a world financial crisis.

Incidentally, I have lost 1/2 of my gold stock profits in the last several days. Probably should have sold them, and waited to buy them back. But I am too much of an optimistic gold bug, I guess.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:38 - ID#227238)
Mike Sheller @23:30: In a world of first and second order jerks, you remain a remarkable fellow. In a world of gentlemen, you would still be high on the "A" list. I admire you greatly.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:41 - ID#256250)
Date: Wed Apr 15 1998 22:15
mozel ( @schultz ) ID#153102:

"The United States Government via its monetary agencies is shorting gold. It is the policy of IMF and World Bank to reduce gold's significance in international trade. If you want people more easily to let go of something, make it worth less or more costly to hold. ( That's how they got fiveliter's gun, basically )

"Somebody posted gold is priced at production. I think it is priced at less than production. Gold below $360 is less than the Italians are carrying it on their books ( At what price did the Euro authorities allow the Italians to value their gold to make the Euro hurdle ? )

It looks to me like the game is unravelling. That is no reason for the US Government not to continue its War on Gold policy to the bitter end. "

mozel as usual you are probably right.

The good news is that many governments of the world are also tired of this USG/IMF dodge. Japan has less and less reason daily to support the U.S. ponzi scheme that has blugdoned then badly. The Swiss are quite sick of the USG games ....

But for some silly reason, I believe that a key to stopping the USG/IMF's games is revealing the comex ( and possibly LBME ) scam. Once eligible gold is depleted, the game is up. I do not think that the USG can add to comex stores ( either because of lack of internal stocks or fear of legal problems ( yes, I know they fear not the law ... ) . I am resonable sure that the USG is doing similiar scams with all commodities ( just a guess as to why spot prices stay comfortably low while store prices rise ) .

The scam has been revealed to us, and I think the word is spreading. A bit simplistic but when people build complicated scams, the sms sometimes unravel because simple truths are revealed.

paper gold is worthless. Physical gold is valuable.

Just look at today's action in palladium. paper palladium got chaper on pretend PR that maybe all is well with Russia. WOW! And they did the same thing last year and it worked ( palladium was at $160 in april it rose to $203 on June 16 ( when the Russia is shipping was announced ) and dropped to $162 on July 10 and then started rising until our most recent high of $347 ( when the Russia is going to ship announcement was made ) .

I agree the game is unraveling. And I believe that reality is the cause. The laws of supply and demand are taking their toll. USG is blind to the truth and can no longer defend itself - just like Romania did a few years back.

Those manufacturers that stock piled palladium last year are sitting pretty. Those manufacturers that insist on using just in time inventory methods are being hurt. I sense that JIT may have seen it day. As companies go back to having large stocks ...

(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:43 - ID#227238)
Cherokee: If yer still up and lurking; the grains appeared to have a decent rally today. Any thought to going long some corn here?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:44 - ID#255151)

Yep, I agree with the opinion that Gold is very undervalued. EJ,s April 15, 1998 22:28 post expresses my thoughts on Gold very closely. I also believe Silver will become very valuable within the next 12 to 18 months. ilg!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:48 - ID#318141)
Did LGB post today that he was leaving Kitco? I haven't seen him post in several hours and have seen a few allusions to him being gone.

Dennis Wheeler

(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:54 - ID#320376)
the Euro

(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:54 - ID#57232)
Short term future of US markets
SivlerBaron: Appreciate your 19:04. My opinion is that the US markets are going to go up for some time -- months or more. I have decided to hedge my bets and put some of my liquid assets into the regular equities markets ( heresy for a gold bug ) . I think my natural paranoia will bring me out well before a crash. The only thing that would cause me to bail out of all equities ( gold stocks included ) would be solid proof that the American debt game is beyond recuscitation. I do know individuals who are not mortgaged up to the hilt in the markets, but I really don't have numbers and was hoping someone had access to age-specific ones.

As the Oldman has said, it will take alot to bring this bull market down. Now -- if the Oldman was bearish, that would be a bad sign indeed! Oldman - comments? And RJ -- we miss your insight!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 00:58 - ID#255151)

Not sure if LGB said he was gone forever. People come and go here very quickly.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 01:00 - ID#256250)
When will Japan announce they are buying gold?
I think they will make this announcement when they have realized that they will not be helped by the USG and that they are losing face worldwide. With the announcement that they are selling treasuries and buying bullion, I believe that they will get the bounce they seem to want in the yen. They may follow this bold move with a rise in interest rates ( to cut the flow of monies from Japan to USG treasuries ) and possibly insitute a Asian trading currency. Their focus should be trading profits in the future - and the future is Asia.

The U.S. is a dieing market, a market build on unpayable debt, a unrealiable reserve currency, and a untrustworthy government. Japan and other countries can afford to walk away from a trading partner that can not pay in HARD Currency.

What does the U.S. manufacturer today other than finanical instruments and legal briefs? How will it replace the cheap, high quality Asia goods?

I smell a sea change.
Buy gold and take delivery.

Goodnight all

(Thu Apr 16 1998 01:05 - ID#153102)
@A_Goose @JTF
A_Goose As my broker told me, nobody ( hardly anybody ) takes delivery off Comex. The scams are there, I agree. But, London is the dog; Comex is the tail.

The funny thing is that there will always be a Switzerland because that's where all the politicians park their gold and other loot. Even the biggest thieves and robbers have to have one safe, honest bank.

@JTF The fact Japan has all this credit ( 40% of world savings ? ) and no credit ( weak yen ) is weird, isn't it ? The Japanese are not going to dis-hoard gold. I can see no scenario in which it would be necessary.

Congress asked Rubin a very good question, to wit: why can't IMF simply sell its gold to raise the funding it was asking from Congress ? In his answer is a clue to why BIS holds a trump card.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 01:06 - ID#57232)
US market vulnerabilities
A. Goose: You mentioned several items that I forgot.

Nearly immediate effect on market:

1 ) Private debt meltdown -- bankruptcy rise

2 ) Failure of just in time -- already a bottleneck with some railroads

repeat of UPS strike?

3 ) AG raises interest rates -- unlikely -- too close to election time? World markets still too weak?

4 ) Dollar crisis -- probably unlikely at current time

5 ) Energy or commodities crisis

Delayed effect on market:

1 ) Federal collections deficit -- takes time to affect interest rates

2 ) SEAsia losses -- 1 trillion -- probably deferred into new debt instruments like 20 years ago. Will resurface as inflation years from now

3 ) US trade deficits, additions to national debt.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 01:16 - ID#57232)
mozel: I agree that Japan is puzzling. The Japanese people are about the most conservative savers one can imagine. It is the Japanese government/bureacracy that is in trouble, and unable to repair all of the Yakuza-controlled debt black holes.

I suspect that the Japanese are shaking their heads, looking at all of our debt, and the strength of our economy. Then they look at all of their savings, and the weakness of their economy. Part of the problem is that most of the Japanese are at retirement age, whereas our population will not peak retirement-wise until 2010-2015. We spend and the Japanese people don't.

I still find it amazing that their bubble burst in 1990 -- nearly 10 years ago. If that had happened here, our crash would have been much more dramatic, due to our lack of savings, and our less monlithic society.

I think we are repeating the cycle of 1929 where the US markets were the strongest, and the last to go. I think we are at least one year away from the final blowoff. Probably Sep-Oct 1999.

Monkee Person
(Thu Apr 16 1998 01:16 - ID#288105)
A. Goose
Your 01:00 is right on the money!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 01:19 - ID#255151)

1. Who controls the Gold market? 2. What are their intentions? 3. What $ value for Gold in 12 months? My answers-- 1. The opportunists. That is, those Bankers/Miners/Traders who have no bias for or against Gold. They are out to make money. 2. To make as much on Gold moves as possible. These same players will be as ferociously bullish when Gold finally does go up. 3. April 16, 1999-- Gold $450

(Thu Apr 16 1998 01:20 - ID#153102)
@A_Goose @JTF
You both omitted the most important factor that could cause a DOW correction: PPT takes its hands off the levers.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 01:30 - ID#57232)
PPT does nothing -- Logging off for the night
mozel: I agree. AG does not want to raise rates. But -- he does want the markets to drop a bit, because he knows it will be much worse the longer this bull continues. No 1929 grade blowoff yet. And -- now the circuit breakers have been readjusted, so the 'powers that be' have the illusion that they will have control. My guess is that in a real collapse, the derivatives markets will still lock up regardless, and all of that equity insurance will become vaporware, just as it did in the 1987 crash. Gold equities will fare somewhat better because they are so low already.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 01:37 - ID#153102)
@JTF @auric
@JTF Americans save 15% roughly. This is roughly the sum of employer and employee contributions to Social Security. The Japanese have no Social Security. Americans' savings are being squandered.

@auric Gold is a currency. The monetary authorities intervene in all of the currency or FX exchanges, including the gold FX exchange at LBMA. The decision of LBMA to allow forward sales by mines on the exchange was very significant. One can, I think, reasonably assume that forward sales would not have been necessary if there was still enough mobilized above ground gold to meet the market. The monetary authorities "control" the gold market to the extent it is controlled.

Another posted that a dramatic revaluation of gold against the greenback would solve the United States national debt problem. I don't know if this is simplistic or not. But, higher than $450 would be necessary.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 01:44 - ID#220325)
APH **Thank You** SuggestionTo ALL Kitcoites particularly newcomers
APH does not post often but when he does he is worth following. His insights into the market are phenomenal. I could only wish to have his acumen and trend following abilities. Along with some others here I have been a slavish goldbug for 25 years waiting for my wish to come true--it still has not--. That does not mean I have lost the faith! IT ONLY MEANS THAT APH HAS A FAR, FAR BETTER APPROACH TO SUCCESS THAT I FOR ONE HOPE TO FOLLOW. If there are some among us who disagree with what I am saying and APH's methods PLEASE DO SO IN A CONSTRUCTIVE WAY. Too many people of his calibre have become discouraged with the criticism of a few who are only too willing to trash others in the hopes that they will be listened to. IF YOU HAVE A WORTHWHILE CONTRIBUTION IT WILL BE ACKNOWLEDGED.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 01:46 - ID#373403)
G-7 says no coordinated action to support yen
Japan will DUMP their treasuries with no mind to the damage it may cause to America and our bond market. The writing is finally on the wall that the west is a good time Charlie. They are on their own and they will dump.

Our interest rates must now rise to entice American to save an additional $400 billion and buy bonds. Higher i-rates will kill our debt saturated economy.

The sh-t is hitting the fan, DUCK!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 01:50 - ID#255151)

Do you think that a physical Gold shortage has led to a situation where Gold loans/sales/shorts became necessary? Or did the loans/sales/shorts lead to a physical shortage? My answer--The loans/sales/shorts was more responsible for creating the physical shortage than vice versa.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 01:53 - ID#340302)
This article is good for a laugh...classic example of...
...Clinton government double-speak. They are experts only surpassed by the Wall Street New Paradigm.

Thesis...RUBIN: "He welcomed Japan's intervention in the markets to
bolster the yen." ( Of course, as long as they never
sell their American treasuries! )

Antithesis...RUBIN: "I continue to support a strong dollar." ( Because
( on the day the U.S. dollar weakens significantly,
the stock and bond markets will dump along with it )

April 16, 1998

G7 Leaders Voice Concerns Over Yen


WASHINGTON -- Finance ministers and the heads of the central banks of the world's largest industrialized nations said Wednesday that the yen had fallen too far as Japan struggles to pull out of its worst financial straits in years.

But in a daylong meeting, the ministers offered little explicit help to Tokyo in bolstering the yen, and Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said the United States was not retreating from its view that a strong dollar is in America's best interest.

"I continue to support a strong dollar," he said, carefully stepping around the question of how the yen could rise in value without the dollar falling.

The dollar, which had been weakening against the yen before Rubin spoke, stabilized afterward. His comments appeared to have been interpreted on foreign exchange markets as a sign that while the yen may be allowed to rise modestly, the United States will not let the dollar decline much against the yen.

That was also the message last week, when Rubin said he "welcomed" Japan's intervention in the currency markets to bolster the yen but made clear that the United States did not spend a penny to do the same.

Once again Wednesday, the Group of Seven nations pressed Japan to do more to improve its economic prospects. In a discussion that went on longer than expected, participants in the meeting said they were unimpressed by the presentation made by Japan's new finance minister, Hikaru Matsunaga, about a $75 billion stimulus package that Japan announced last week.

"The world still hasn't seen the details," Rubin said Wednesday evening, doing little to hide his disappointment in Matsunaga's repetition in private of vague plans released last week. "The final proof will be whether it affects the economy."

A communique issued by the Group of Seven Wednesday night said, "the challenges facing Japan are serious and have intensified in recent months."

"What is crucial is to implement quickly a strong program of effective fiscal measures and structural reforms," the communique continued.

While that wording seems benign, in the arcane language of finance ministers it represents a public reprimand -- in this case that the Japanese government, having neglected serious economic problems for years, no longer has the luxury of time to stop a downward spiral of its economy, the world's second largest.

"Japan got itself into this problem," one senior American official said last week, "and it's going to have to get itself out."

The yen's value has become an embarrassing indicator of the country's weakness and its dim prospects for imminent recovery. While Japanese industry benefits from a weak yen -- because it makes the country's exports less expensive and thus more competitive abroad -- Japanese officials are clearly concerned that the slide has gone too far.

They also know that a weak currency is a political hazard. The weak yen has kept Japan from importing more goods from Southeast Asia, which is struggling to overcome its own crisis. That has created considerable tension with its neighbors. And the flood of Japanese imports coming into the United States, fueled by the weak yen, is greatly increasing the size of Japan's trade surplus with the United States. American officials have warned that the widening trade gap could reignite a political outcry on Capitol Hill, including renewed calls from protection from Japanese imports.

As soon as Wednesday's meeting was over, the participants were already putting their distinctive spin on its conclusions, hoping to influence the markets to their advantage.

For example, Japan's vice minister of finance, Eisuke Sakakibara, noted that considerable time was spent on the question of whether stock markets around the world, particularly in the United States, had gone too high. And he said at a news conference after the meeting that the G-7's statement Wednesday suggested that the seven countries -- Japan, the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Canada and Italy -- could decide to intervene in the currency markets simultaneously to drive up the value of the yen.

Sakakibara, regarded as one of Japan's most powerful financial officials, said that the communique "is indicating the possibility of coordinated intervention." He clearly hopes the possibility of such action will dissuade investors from betting on further yen weakness.

But at a news conference at the Treasury Wednesday evening, Rubin said coordinated intervention in the markets was not discussed.

The meeting came after weeks of unusual tension between Washington and Tokyo over Japan's economic strategy. The Japanese government has been reluctant to run up huge budget deficits to bolster the economy, because Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto came to office promising austerity and balanced budgets. But the pressure became too great last week and he announced a plan -- though it lacked critical details and seemed to include billions in spending on real estate and other transactions that have little chance of spurring economic activity. While Hashimoto announced tax cuts, they were relatively small and may be temporary.

Even top Japanese officials who attended Wednesday's meeting said in private that they were still uncertain what shape the final package would take.

But Rubin insisted that the meeting Wednesday did not include much heated criticism of Japan.

"Heated?" he said. "These are finance ministers and central bankers. Our idea of heated is somebody has an extra glass of water. I wouldn't call it heated."

(Thu Apr 16 1998 02:06 - ID#153102)
Low price preventing the profitable opening of new mines perpetuates a physical shortage. Your what came first question seems almost like the chicken/egg question to me. Nobody seems to believe any of the public figures on supply and demand, so who knows ?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 02:09 - ID#340302)
Stagflation in Canada must lead to...
...stagflation in the U.S. When Canadians raise their interest rates, America will be compelled to follow.

Thursday, April 16, 1998

Pressure mounts on C$

Economics Reporter The Financial Post
The C$ renewed its decline yesterday, losing almost a third of a cent amid speculation the Bank of Canada may once again be forced to raise interest rates. Analysts said the currency market is increasingly coming to the conclusion the C$ will only strengthen if interest rates
are raised to parity with U.S. rates. "There is the view that the Bank of Canada is going to come in and tighten [rates] to eliminate the spread," said Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Nesbitt Burns Inc.
Rate parity would attract more international investment to Canada and send the C$ higher, she said. It closed yesterday at US69.51, down US0.31. While the gap in rates might be a drag on the C$, the speed of the recent slide, which came on the heels of a half-cent tumble on Monday, had analysts baffled. "There is nothing I can see that has happened in the past few days that would have pushed it lower," said Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC Wood Gundy Securities Inc.
Bank governor Gordon Thiessen told the media in Washington yesterday the C$'s economic fundamentals remained strong. He would not comment on its recent tumble. The bank has raised its key overnight lending rate to 5% from 3.5% last fall, largely in response to C$ weakness related to plunging commodity prices after a near collapse in many Asian economies.
Another 50-basis-point rise in the bank rate to 5.5% would lift short-term interest rates to equal those in the U.S. The central bank raised the bank rate 50 basis points in late January after the C$ hit a record low of US69.10. The currency rebounded to pass US71 last month, aided by excitement that a Jean Charest-led Quebec Liberal party could
remove the separatist threat from the province. In the absence of new positive developments, Shenfeld said, traders may be testing technical levels of support. The currency fell into weaker territory when the US$ passed $1.4250 ( a C$ at US70.15 ) . Yesterday's midday low was US69.46, just above another technical point of support of US69.44 ( $1.44 ) .
Shenfeld said the bank may raise rates if the C$ falls below US68.97 ( a US$ above $1.45 ) .

(Thu Apr 16 1998 02:17 - ID#153102)
Somebody posted something about putting the UCC1-207 reservation of rights statement on your tax return. Bad idea. Modifying the jurat earns a penalty. Tax is not collected under UCC anyway.

On the other hand, the post that stated that signing the jurat on the 1040 is a waiver of fifth Amendment rights was spot on. Seek to find.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 02:18 - ID#255151)

This claiming of Executive Privilege for Presidential advisors, the Secret Service, and the First Lady, smacks of dictatorship. The Supreme Court needs to rule on this. The Executive Branch of the United States Government is a festering abscess that needs excising.

Monkee Person
(Thu Apr 16 1998 02:20 - ID#288105)
Nikkei down hard. Breaking below 16000.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 02:21 - ID#340302)
If the Bronfman's (via TRILON) cannot get control of ROYAL OAK...
...then look for them to consolidate their position soon in another major gold producer. Any such consolidation bodes well for the XAU.

Thursday, April 16, 1998

Royal Oak bondholders squabbling over offer

Vancouver Bureau The Financial Post
Bondholders of Royal Oak Mines Inc. are split over whether the cash-strapped gold producer should continue as a going concern or be forced into bankruptcy. Sources watching negotiations between Royal Oak and holders of the company's US$175 million in senior subordinated notes say it isn't clear which side will gain the upper hand. Observers say U.S. bondholders are squabbling over an offer from the Kirkland, Wash.-based company that would allow it to access a US$120-million financing arranged with Toronto-based Trilon Financial Corp. Royal Oak needs the cash to cover cost overruns at its Kemess gold-copper mine in British Columbia and to pay off its other creditors. However, U.S. bondholders are upset the Trilon loan carries a coupon rate of 12%, plus a US$14-million royalty on Kemess production and additional fees. Royal Oak can't close the Trilon deal without support from holders of 51% of the subordinated notes, which carry a flat coupon rate of 11% and would rank behind Trilon in the event the company is wound up. Yesterday, Royal Oak spokesman Nick Volk declined to comment on rumors the U.S. bondholders are split over whether to accept the company's offer of US$5 per US$1,000 of face value. Sources said one group consists of vulture funds that have picked up Royal Oak debt for as little as US60 on the dollar and think they can get more of the debt at lower prices if Royal Oak is forced into bankruptcy. A second, more passive group is willing to accept what Royal Oak is offering because it acquired the bonds at par value and is concerned about what would happen if the company is wound up. "This group isn't willing to call [Royal Oak chief executive Margaret] Witte's bluff,'' the source said. Under loan covenants with its bondholders, whatever the majority decides applies to the rest. "We are trying to negotiate a fee that is reasonable for all parties,'' said Volk, adding the company continues to be optimistic an agreement will be finalized in the next few days. "Negotiations have reached a sensitive stage,'' agreed Eric Johnson, a vice-president with Canseco Capital Management
of Indiana, which has described itself as one of the larger bondholders.
Volk declined to comment on rumors Trilon has provided Royal Oak with a cash advance aimed at tiding the company over until negotiations with bondholders are complete. Sources said the loan is secured by equipment on the Kemess property.
Yesterday, Royal Oak shares ( RYO/TSE ) closed down 5 at $1.45.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 02:24 - ID#255284)
mozel --Total Gold Supply? BIS holdings? "Gi'sa sov please, guv." in 1903
your: "Nobody seems to believe any of the public figures on supply and demand." triggered a question that has been bothering me of late. Is this figure I have read in a three-score or more places that the World Historic Total of Mined Gold is 125,000 tonnes correct? I was reminded of it when I asked the question, long since unanswered at kitco for confirmation that the BIS does in fact hold 1 billion oz of my precious, as has been asserted here. This, if true means that roughly one quarter of all gold ever mined is in the warm tentacular embrace of the BIS.

I doubt the BIS figure but what if the 125,000 was wrong. Can someone help me here?

ALso I am still struggling with the relative value in terms of hours worked to produce income and ease of expenditure of a,say, 1903 gold sovereign. Donald has gone some way down the road , I think after a translation into US terms, but looking at the cost of postage then and now may not be a good measure of expenditure. Can anyone suggest other fields upon which I might roam?

In plain English: Where might I find information concerning the purchasing power of a sovereign in 1903 and how long would it take to earn one?

Well, I'm not capitulating, but perhaps you should e-mail the address of the charity you would like me to send a one-half kiwi 9999 coin, just in case.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 02:29 - ID#284255)
ANOTHER big joke
-The Ponzi Pair - By Jim Rogers

The IMF and the World Bank keep issuing larger and larger loans to their borrowers--a practice that has all the earmarks of a classic financial swindle

(Thu Apr 16 1998 02:31 - ID#153102)
It's easier for people to stay in denial and venerate Lincoln than to face the truth.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 02:34 - ID#22956)
I will be here for a while....
away...for a while...very short while

go plat....sputter-sputter.....DJ, how good are your channels ( ohmy! ) ! Possibly one of my most important trading tools in these here metals markets. Thanks a bunch dudeski. I did peel off a small amount of my position in part due to you. I command you to give us bi-weekly 'channels' git to it!! ;- )

(Thu Apr 16 1998 02:35 - ID#22956)
Earl, lend me your 'ear'.....
straddle the corn......July. If you are unsure of direction. uh huh. Here is a little taste of what went on today in grains... ( duh ) .


Grains settled higher on the Chicago Board of Trade Wednesday.

The soy and grain futures markets were supported by forecasts for


weather in the U.S. and South America. Traders noted that


don't do well in extreme rain. ( WSJ Interactive )

--------------------------------- shuck & jive


(Thu Apr 16 1998 02:35 - ID#340302)
Final post of the night...
...I have enjoyed the many comments addressed my way this past day. It is flattering to be appreciated...and even more so when one is despised. If I am pleasing people or pissing them off, then at least, I am affecting them. That is all a writer can ever hope for...and evoking a reaction from people is a writer's best payoff!

Again, I thank you and hope my insights moved you into a realm of emotional turmoil...either good or bad.



(Thu Apr 16 1998 02:37 - ID#22956)
retired soldier
I am still cracking up over that can of ass-wuppin you almost had to open......yuk-yuk.
away... ( roflol )

(Thu Apr 16 1998 02:41 - ID#255151)

Been searching for a Virtuous Charity for your  oz Kiwi. Raffle it off for a Good Cause. Hell, I once raffled off 4 NFC playoff packages on a local radio station. I bought them and couldn't go. Paid about $3600 for them. Raised $2400!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 02:45 - ID#22956)
there goes the buck($)....
making a tear

watch out gold

staring down

the bear... ( maul ) .


'ello Orny Orni....from under....... ( from under what? ) ...well, from under your.......... ( whoops...ANOTHER joke....ANOTHER time/place )

away...for a while

 ( no ) ( ! ) .

(Thu Apr 16 1998 02:50 - ID#153102)
Every time BIS does another tranche of capital it gets more gold.

A query to the World Gold Council might cast some light on your question about how much BIS holds of world total.

On the 1903 sovereign question, you might look into the prices of race horses then and now. Anything produced with labor and capital ( like mail delivery ) is too much of a moving target, I think. The internal combustion engine did wonders for productivity. Horse racing, on the other hand, hasn't changed much.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 02:51 - ID#255151)
What was the latest Gold price recorded on Friday, April 10?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 02:56 - ID#206358)

(Thu Apr 16 1998 02:59 - ID#22956)
am sufficiently bummed.....
I asked for copious notes/investigation/post ( age ) /etc. regarding PGM's today and it never happened ( this is a PM discussion group ) . I do wish to thank brother Oris for his excellent comments. To which I pose a question to my rooskie friend....If price is already set then why did the news of officials signing an order to deliver ( at an UNSPECIFIED time ) cause the market to tumble? Shouldn't this news NOT be affecting the market? I think we ( kitcoites ) need to focus some energy here. EH! This price drop does NOT bode well for the near term. imo. eagerly await responses from our more seasoned plat traders and inside pooper-scoopers.....


(Thu Apr 16 1998 03:06 - ID#153102)
@all G'night. The East is still Red.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 03:07 - ID#255151)

What spot price do you have for Gold's close on April 10th?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 03:08 - ID#22956)
I do not know. There were conflicting stories. And I am not at all sure what we agreed on either. Was it not Kitco spot price? Or was it London fix? Did we agree....I think I left it open and I may have missed your response. Please let me know if I won or lost. ;- ) eschew obfuscation


last scheduled email from Bart:

April 09, 1998 - London Fix Prices

AM Gold 308.35

PM Gold 307.65


April 14, 1998 - London Fix Prices

AM Gold 309.50

PM Gold 309.50

PH in LA
(Thu Apr 16 1998 03:11 - ID#225408)

I do recall your question on another occasion and also recall how perplexed I felt at your asking it; at its intention. That is why I didn't answer it. Is there some kind of litmus test for investors that I don't know about here? Is this a club that one must sue for membership?

If it helps you evaluate my words: Yes, I have investments in both silver and gold.

So what?

According to my understanding, gold is not just a pretty bauble, not just a trinket to keep your wife ( or mistress ) happy; nor is it just a means to an investment goal, nor just a commodity whose price fluctuations can make your rich ( or poor ) . It is all of these things, and more.

Much, much more. It is nothing less than the foundation upon which our whole economic system rests, despite the barbarous relic cheaters who are trying to deceive us to the contrary. And it has been for all of human history. Do you know that archeologists have found underground evidence including carbon-dateable charcoals indicating that gold was mined in South Africa tens of thousands of years ago?

By its convertibility to currencies ( albeit currently via a floating exchange ) it is money. Witness the data being unearthed on a daily basis by SDRer; between nations, all commerce is conducted in gold. And whatever value paper money has is only dependent on its value in gold. That makes gold pretty important, doesn't it? In fact, economics/money/gold is the basis for civilization. It relates directly to politics, human endeavor, human thought, human can see where this is leading. It relates to everything. And everything relates to it. Yes, even mind analysis. What is psychology? How does it relate to gold/money? Rather ask, how doesn't it?

That's why there really isn't hardly anything that doesn't somehow relate to gold. Our gold/money/economic system is like a parallel universe that reflects human life itself, in one way or another. There is no such thing as an off-topic subject. Everything should come up for discussion here; and does. That is what makes this site so incredible. Of course, it goes without saying that the quality of the thoughts are what makes this happen. ( Posters who announce their THOUGHTS as the topic of their post and then say "Duh" are amusing, but hardly inspiring. )

Posts that explain how the markets work, that drew our attention to the LBMA, that draw our attention to the comex inventories, that make us question the concept of the "spot" price, that postulate other possible futures apart from those that conventional thinking takes for granted...these are what fascinates me here. When I see these ideals being denigrated, being cast aside for mere profit by narrow-minded, self-obsessed loud-mouths, I feel I must speak out.

I rarely pretend to have an original or professional analysis of the PM markets to offer here. That should not be an excuse to banish my voice. If I become convinced that I contribute nothing, I will be happy to remain silent. If it is important to you that I profess some comittment to a precious metal, well, I do have. But my real comittment and reason for being here is far broader than that.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 03:15 - ID#215379)
irrational behavior
I have never seen such irrational behavior of the markets. Common sense and fundementals do not correspond to the direction of stocks and commodities. Example: when basic metals prices go up that usually includes gold ???? Not anymore, fundementals are out the window, along with rational and common sense behavior. Time for a GOOD DEEP CLEANING.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 03:16 - ID#255151)

No big deal, mate. Hell, I owed that $50 donation on another bet anyway! Gave me an excuse to settle accounts. My point was--Gold closed above $310 on Friday afternoon according to sharefin.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 03:30 - ID#22956)
Auric....if this is the case....
then sharefin or someone ( a few here want some air let out of me ) will post such...and I will pay. My point was that we were going by Kitco prices. But I will not backout of ANY wager. No problem mate. I will donate to my local's to help chillins after school excercise their minds AND bodies. give to my community

(Thu Apr 16 1998 03:39 - ID#22956)
full skinny...or more likely a skinny amount of the truth....

(Thu Apr 16 1998 03:41 - ID#255151)

When you speak on Gold, I listen.

Strad Master
(Thu Apr 16 1998 04:04 - ID#250297)
Ambrosial gastronomy
MIKE SHELLER: In your sign-off for the night you mention Kitco being a place for good recipes. Reminded me... did you ever try that Chicken Papriks recipe I sent you? Talk about golden...

(Thu Apr 16 1998 04:05 - ID#255151)

The deserving poor will be $50 ahead in both our communities, eh?

Strad Master
(Thu Apr 16 1998 04:12 - ID#250297)
A joke
ALL: Where is Tort these days? I miss his daily joke. In humble obeissance to his superior comedic genius I post this for y'all's late-night edification:

Father Francis woke up one Sunday morning and, realizing it was an exceptionally beautiful and sunny early spring day, decided he just HAD to play golf. So... he told the assistant Pastor that he was feeling sick and convinced him to say Mass for him that day.

As soon as the Assistant Pastor left the room, Father Francis headed out
of town to a golf course about forty miles away. This way he knew he
wouldn't accidentally meet anyone he knew from his Parish. Setting up
on the first tee, he was alone. After all, it was Sunday morning and everyone else was in church!

At about this time, Saint Peter leaned over to God while looking down from the heavens and exclaimed, "You're not going to let him get away with this, are you?"

God sighed, and replied, "No, I guess not."

Shortly thereafter, Father Francis hit the ball and it shot straight towards the pin, dropping just short of it, rolled up and fell into the hole. IT WAS A 420 YARD HOLE IN ONE!

St. Peter was astonished. He looked at God and asked, "Why did you let him do that?"

God smiled wryly and replied, "Who's he going to tell?"

(Thu Apr 16 1998 04:35 - ID#284255)
EB - Auric
Here is what I posted.

To the winner goes the spoils.

Date: Sat Apr 11 1998 08:24
sharefin ( FLIPPING WINKS ) ID#284255:

Friday April 10, 11:17 am Eastern Time
London Gold Closing - Apr 10

310.25/311.25 dlrs

Race results


(Thu Apr 16 1998 04:44 - ID#240120)
European Stock Markets Heading South
FT100 6018.9 -55.2 -0.9%

DAX 5321.0 -67.5 -1.3%

CAC 40 3860.9 -23.7 -0.6%

SMI 7573.1 -43.2 -0.6%

(Thu Apr 16 1998 04:44 - ID#284255)
Asia in the red again?
Russian quotas knock palladium
Gold and silver slipped to the back seat in London trading yesterday morning as palladium prices plunged on news that Russia had approved a government order setting out this year's export quotas for platinum group metals, dealers said.
Oversupply provokes downward turn for oil prices
Shaky world oil markets took another downward turn on Tuesday, frightened by the size of the glut in global supplies.
Public information ratings cut hurts banks
The Singapore market fell yesterday as banking shares were hurt by concerns about mounting corporate failures in Malaysia, and by a cut in the public information ratings on four of the island state's biggest banks by Standard & Poor's.
Asian units recover from early losses
Asian currencies recouped some earlier losses yesterday as discouraging developments in Malaysia and Indonesia overwhelmed the positive impact of a stronger yen before the meeting of finance ministers from the Group of Seven leading industrialised nations.
Crisis fails to measure up for wholesale reform
Big ideas are the rage in Washington this week. In the aftermath of the Asian currency crisis, the "new financial architecture" crowd are positively busting with ways to make global markets work better.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 04:52 - ID#340302)
@A.GOOS...I have good news and bad news...
...the bad news is "you know who" woke me in my sleep...he disturbed my REM cycle, I've got a kille headache, and my wife's pissed...

...the good news is he delivered a crptic little mesage and I quote:
"Don't sell one single ounce of your gold! I'll fill you in later."

Souds good to me!



(Thu Apr 16 1998 05:02 - ID#284255)
O Foggy Londontown
MARKET UPDATE ( 4/15/98 ) AM---- Gold continued its downtrend this morning on this most dismal of days -- tax ( domes ) day 1998. Gold seems to be catching its breath after the strong run-up from $278 to levels not seen since late last year. The litany of good news for gold hasn't abated with more positive feedback on offtake and investor demand. The London Bullion Market Association published its figures yesterday and came in with volumes 1.5 million ounces higher than last month and 2.2 million ounces higher than March last year. The fact that these number are posted at a time when the metal was in an uptrend are encouraging. LBMA makes a point of the fact that the National Bank of Belgium's gold sale was bridged to five other central banks ( implying that this was a favorable development ) . It also cites large producer buy-backs, "bullish noises about the likely level of gold reserves in the European Central Bank, and news of a millenial coin "which if it happened would absorb a lot of gold, as reasons for gold's comeback. Despite the "good news" one reads a depressed tone throughout their report as if LBMA is unhappy over gold's recovery -- a strange attitude for a group that makes its living marketing the metal. One wonders what goes on behind closed doors there. We have never been able to understand their numbers. LBMA says that 14,000 tons or thereabouts clears the market every year. Gold Fields, the bible of annual gold clearing figures, puts the volume at roughly 4000 tons. What comprises the other 10,000 tons? real metal? paper trades? compounding as the metal moves off the books of one trader onto the books of another? With all due respect to an important institution to all gold investors, we would like to know and invite LBMA's response. Just click on the E-mail button on our home page. It appears that LBMA goes to this site since much of their good news reads like something out of this report, so we, with good intentions, invite your reply. The world of gold awaits your response, O Foggy Londontown. Remember that the very reason you published these numbers in the first place is to raise the level of transparency at LBMA. We ask that you not be offended if that transparency raises a question or two. We will publish your reply verbatim if you deem it worthwhile to respond. Gold investors and analysts from all over the globe visit this venue daily, as such it would be good place to publish your reply. In the meanwhile we will be watching this consolidation of the yellow and report back if it breaks out today. Have a good tax day, fellow goldmeisters, if that's possible on the 15th of April. All in all, it looks like it will be a quiet day in the metals markets.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 05:36 - ID#255151)

Got some things bugging me at work that I have decided to eliminate, starting this Sunday. 1. Rude and abusive on site consultants. 2. Rude and abusive phone consultants who intimidate and bully my representatives. 3. Getting on my ass for things outside my control. I will request a Representative from Administration to answer, in person, said complaints. 4. There are one or two other issues that burn my butt, but 1 through 3 should suffice for now. Will report results.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 05:41 - ID#230376)
@ Aurator.....

About 20 yrs. ago the missus & I bought an old building to renovate. In thc old basement/cellar we found a Chicago Tribune news paper dated November 7,1908 We had no way to preseve it and it disintergrated within a few months,but I still recall some prices in a few ads.

Ford Motorcar $495

Mens' 4 piece suit ( 2 pr. of pants-vest ) @ Sears Roebuck $49.95

Chicken .49 cents a pound ( very expensive @ the time )

Hope this helps. Goodnight from the chilly Midwest.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 05:47 - ID#230376)
@ Auric.....

Haven't you just eliminated 1/2 of the world's peopleOs ???

(Thu Apr 16 1998 05:56 - ID#255151)

Nah, I just think that the time is ripe to request certain conditions be present. Such conditions include a minimum level of comfort. It is now Policy this Sunday that such Rudeness shall be eliminated.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 06:02 - ID#230376)
@ Auric...
Great idea ! Maybe you will start a trend towards kindness !...and the Good Lord knows this world needs some.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 06:03 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
Today the XAU closed that opening gap of 4/3/98. The high of 4/2/98 was 83.41. Today's low was 83.26 and have now moved higher on the XAU. Am now expecting the XAU to move forward for at least the next 5 weeks. Ok xau, gap is closed; let's start moving.: ) ) )

The Vigil.

Joyce guides the patient readers sight
To Molly, lost in reverie
Of womans immemorial plight
Perils, deep needs and the mystery.

She pleads - patient and all wordless
A soothing for her deep unrest
To feel the loving warm hand prest
Upon the nubile gentle breast
To feel the gentle touch intrude
On the warm limbs, the waiting pubes
That loving touch that touching calms
And soothes the body's false alarms.

She yearns sweet tastings - gentle teasings
Softly touchings - sensuous pleasings
Her body's sweetness
Is her keen delight
To savour her deep need this night.

She Blooms with yearn,
And sleeps sweet aid
Is far from those dark eyes that plead.
She is this hour Ancestral Maid
In deep and elemental need
Her eyes deep pools of loves delight.

Here, sacrosanct, is woman
Magic and mystical
She is of Paradise this night.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 06:08 - ID#255151)
The Merciless

Ersel--Discourtesy doesn't stand a chance!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 06:16 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter
institutions quietly selling in hte pits yesterday according to my floor trader friend.

I have no problem believing that, check INTC's on -- three upgrades today after their earnings report Tuesday, and one downgrade -- take a look at today's graph and tell me which had the effect and when it came out, yow! LOL

what is the price on intc?
79 1/4 at 9:30, 77 at 3:45, 74 3/4 at hell of a day
an analyst came out at 3:45 and poormouthed it and SPLAT!

Australia calls their market the "All Ordinaries"...yecch what a boring name, how are they going to get people excited like they are here with a name like that..."Very Exciting Stocks Indeed", now that's a good alternative for the mortgage money

yep a bad day in Asia...yen & Nikkei "tumbled" on no specific brow-beating of Japan at the G-7 meeting

US will be in the same boat someday

well if the U.S. comes to it we won't see a few businessmen taking responsibility for poor decisions and hanging themselves ( we will *never* see businessmen taking responsibility for poor decisions ) , we will see civil war instead

ah ok...hey folks, we have the New Improved Trading Curbs in effect now, hoo boy! so much better than the old curbs...I think I will write to the highway department, tell 'em that I haven't hit any of the guard-rails since they put them up, so dammit take them down!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 06:17 - ID#230376)
The Witch of the North...

my bride ( mostly good witch ) was looking at some chicken bones ( and all the red on the Asian mkts. ) and declaired ALL markets will be in a funk for a few days. When specifically asked, she says ( the bones never lie ) Gold to 297.10...DOW 7854 and Cuervo @ $15.99 per 750 ml. She says those numbers are written in the bones and are irrifutable ! Buying should occur at that time.
Well,boys and girls, I learned 35 yrs. ago not to argue with the Witch of the North....

(Thu Apr 16 1998 06:23 - ID#230376)
@ Sharefin...

Remember the rule.. Buy dips..even when falling off a cliff !

Mr. Mick
(Thu Apr 16 1998 06:31 - ID#345321)
Nikkei down 400...........
Thursday April 16, 4:08 am Eastern Time

Nikkei ends below 16,000 on yen's fall after G7

TOKYO, April 16 ( Reuters ) - Tokyo's main stock average lost more than 400 points to end below

the 16,000 mark on Thursday, as a fall in the yen after a meeting of Group of Seven ( G7 )

industrialised nations in Washington accelerated selling.

The key Nikkei average ended down 415.53 points, or 2.55 percent, at 15,883.77, while June

Nikkei futures ended down 500 at 15,850.

There were no other fresh factors to invite selling on Thursday, but investors also lacked incentives

to buy actively amid worries over the future course of the Japanese economy, brokers said.

They said some details of Japan's latest economic stimulus package were expected to be unveiled

next week, but that the forthcoming announcement had so far failed to completely erase investors'

worries over the economy.

Large and persistent sell orders at the 16,400 level in the futures market further dampened market

sentiment, they said. The sell orders had emerged repeatedly over recent sessions.

Initially, the statement issued by the G7 in Washington was not a major factor moving Tokyo stocks,

although it even relieved some investors in early morning as it said G7 members welcomed steps

taken by Japan to stimulate its economy, which would help to correct the excessive weakness of the


But the dollar climbed to above 131 yen in afternoon trade and the stock market mood quickly

deteriorated, brokers said.

``After the dollar rose above 131 yen, selling intensified,'' Tokyo Securities general manager

Kunihiro Hatae said.

``Without a correction in the yen's value, an overall rise in share prices will be unlikely,'' he said.

``We now see a strong link between the yen's weakness and stock falls,'' a trader at a foreign

brokerage said.

Investors are increasingly nervous about foreign exchange movements, viewing yen falls as a signal

for possible sales of yen-denominated assets by foreign investors, who have recently been major

players in Tokyo's stock market.

Brokers said light turnover magnified the impact of selling on the cash market on Thursday. Some

investors retreated to the sidelines to await details of the economic package and the futures sell

orders further diminished investors' interest in trading.

Turnover on the exchange's first section was 418 million shares, against 301 million shares on


There was some buying in early morning trade by what was probably public funds, but such buying

weakened later due to persistent selling in the futures market, Daiwa Securities deputy general

manager Kenji Karikomi said.

Brokers said the futures sell orders were placed in connection with past buying. Some said they

were related to the use of public funds for massive shares buying at the end of March that was aimed

at lifting share prices, while others said the orders were placed by hedge funds.

The broad-based TOPIX index fell 24.11 points, or 1.94 percent, to 1,217.34. The Nikkei 300 fell

5.04 points, or 2.05 percent, to 240.69.

Declining issues outpaced advancing issues 939 to 207, with 110 issues unchanged. By sector,

losers were led by mining and oil. Shares of the air transport sector were bought.

Brokers expect the market to stay weak for some time.

``Selling by foreign investors may continue as they think Japan's upcoming economic package will

not be effective in boosting the economy,'' a trader at another foreign brokerage said.

``Institutional investors will be unwilling to move until the announcements of company earnings and

earnings outlooks as they want to invest in firms performing well,'' said Mamoru Otani, general

manager of Daiwa Securities.

Many Japanese companies plan to announce in May their earnings for the year that ended on March

31 as well as earnings forecasts for the current business year.

Some brokers forecast that Tokyo share prices would move nervously for some time in future,

affected by moves in the yen.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 06:37 - ID#255151)
Foreign Stock Markets

Japan took a 400+ hit. Germany down about 1% out of the gate. What are the $ and Gold doing?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 06:38 - ID#255151)
Foreign Stock Markets

Japan took a 400+ hit. Germany down about 1%
out of the gate.
What are the $ and Gold doing?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 06:40 - ID#31868)
Asia has been getting hammered for several months now and the way I look
at it is that Asia is a giant sea anchor tied to the stearn of the USS Fiat economy. It has almost filled completely with its deflationary water and will eventually create such a level of drag that it will take the wind totally out of the sails and bring things to a grinding halt.

Crystal Ball
(Thu Apr 16 1998 06:40 - ID#287367)
Somebody kicked the slats out from under silver- down 23 cents!
Gold only down about a buck. Dollar has a rocket up its a$$.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 06:45 - ID#240120)
JPY 11:46 131.43/53 ( UK Time )

(Thu Apr 16 1998 06:47 - ID#255151)

The reality for this morning is strength in the US $. Gold has been having a devil of a time dealing with the strong Dollar.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Apr 16 1998 06:48 - ID#347447)
Catchup Ketchup
ERSEL: I sold all my suits last year. Nice profit, though I think the top is still not in. But the Chickens still haven't moved.

CHEROKEE: I write speeches ( speaches ) in this life too. You'd be surprised who is going to hear one, and in what country, next week.

JTF: re JAPAN, in the late 1920's stock boom, US interest rates were kept down to aid the Bank of England in her fallout pain of profligacy. Kept her from losing gold. Today low US rates and sloshing liquidity is keeping Japan in the game, if floundering desperately. Same Same '25 - '29. But the boom cannot go on forever, and what brought the house of cards down then was a rise in rates by the Fed which realized the stock bubble had reached dangerous proportions. Nearly every bull market in US history has come to an end with rates rising. That is the signal. Until it begins, barring some exogenous shock, the market will continue to levitate. Even if the Utilities have topped, and I am waiting to see if they go on to new highs ( I had been looking for resistance at 280, but they may already be in a return move to test exceeding that level ) we have enough of a lag to allow for my target of Dow 9500. While I believe it is now building its new bull base, Gold will not rise significantly until rates start to go up. Stocks COULD continue rising as rates do, if the rate rise is gentle and is not seen as a portent of the coming Fed, or Financial mode. But somehow in this day of instant everything, I see lots of folks hitting the door at once when that first rate hike comes out of the blue.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 06:49 - ID#31868)
Hey Sheller! Silver is down 28 cents, it is foggy as hell outside
and I can't see my moon, how is it doing?!?!?!?

Crystal Ball
(Thu Apr 16 1998 06:50 - ID#287367)
@ All
Soembody has been naughty over at the Web Resource Links Page. Who might the culprit be?

Bully Beef
(Thu Apr 16 1998 06:52 - ID#259282)
One of the worlds most powerful economies is going down the tubes and...
So many derivative trades depend on its' currency and they collectively finance a large part of this earth and this isn't bullish for gold, but more likely to push up the Dow another hundred points. Go figure. A buddy of mine this spring has totally invested in the market ( mutual funds ) . He is single and miserly. I''ll bet he has over 200k in savings. This was the financial advise he got from the...FEED THE MARKET boys. FEED ME....FEED ME!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 06:54 - ID#31868)
Crystal Ball - a mime with a bad attitude
and nothing to say.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 06:59 - ID#255151)

Just checked Web Resources, and you're right. Kitco's favorite feline has left a calling card. Har! He doesn't quit, eh?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:03 - ID#230376)
@ ALL.....

See APH's post @23:19 ....He is Very Good ..short term..chicken bones.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:05 - ID#284255)
Dippie doo dah
Dips in gold or dips in those overpriced equities?

I know what I'd prefer.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:12 - ID#31868)
Mike Sheller
Just noticed, the toe-hold begins.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:14 - ID#230376)
@ Sharefin...Buy

our favorite on the dipsie do..NOT the sheep dip on the NYSE!!! It's in the bones, Mike. Auric.. fear not ..many will be humbled...soon Bones don't lie..Gotta go. Goodnight from the chilly Midwest.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:14 - ID#340459)
Asian Market Round up today

SYDNEY, April 16 Asia Pulse - Shares closed sharply lower
across most of Asia today, with investors concerned by the
G-7's failure to sanction support measures for the ailing yen.
The Korea composite stock price index plunged to the
450-point level over jitters resulting from Kia Motors' labour
strike and the prosecution's investigation into financial
institutions' offshore funds.
The leading index, which plummeted overall by more than 20
points, ended the day at 454.15, down 13.72 points or 2.9 per
In Tokyo, the market index fell steeply, with many
investors sidelined by a lack of positive leads from the G-7
meeting in Washington.
The Nikkei Stock Average ended at 15,883.77, down 2.5 per
cent or 415.53 points.
In Hong Kong, the market plunged sharply after the Nikkei
fell in Tokyo, with investors concerned by the G-7's failure
to provide support to the Japanese currency.
The Hang Seng fell 183.28 points or 1.6 per cent to close
at 11,187.78.
Concern about the yen weighed heavily on trade in Manila,
where regional uncertainty caused the main index to fall 1.2
per cent at the close.
The composite index closed down 26.02 points at 2,184.55.
In Singapore, the main index closed sharply lower, with
investors concerned by the downgrading of four domestic banks
by international rating agency Standard & Poors.
The Straits Times Industrials index plunged 28.79 points,
or 1.9 per cent, to 1515.15.
A new restructuring plan announced by Malaysia Airlines
sparked uncertainty on the market in Kuala Lumpur, causing the
benchmark index to fall 2.4 per cent.
The KLSE index closed down 15.28 points at 629.34.
In Jakarta, shares closed 0.7 per cent lower, with
investors concerned by rumours of a rise in Bank Indonesia
Certificate ( SBI ) rates.
The composite index fell 3.377 points to close at 510.068.
In Bangkok, the market returned from its lengthy break but
failed to climb into positive territory, with investors
sidelined by falls in other markets across the region.
The SET index fell 14.50 points to close at 431.63.
Australia provided the only positive news in the region
today when higher commodity prices boosted resource stocks and
led the sharemarket market to another record closing high.
The all ordinaries index improved 10.9 points, or 0.37 per
cent, to 2881.4 as the buying in resources offset
profit-taking in banks after their recent surge.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:18 - ID#255151)

panda posted last night about currencies. The links he provided, in light of a surging Dollar, are worth reading. and ( hope these are typed correctly )

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:20 - ID#252391)
Going Down
So much for the emerging bull, or shake out at hand. Yesterday I kicked out 40% of my long metal positoin the only error I made wasn't selling three times as much. What is it dollar strenght running this stuff down ?? I missed any news on Silver and Gold stocks - can't imagine the numbers were particularly positive. I'm beginning to think they may have been manipulated to look bullish.

What's this about Japan buying gold as a way to firm the yen. Baloney, I say, wishful thinking. Just how would that help the yen. So they buy a bunch of gold with what their dollar reserves, or with yen? How does that support the yen??? They couldn't buy enough gold under $500 to give the yen and all the japaneses debt 1% backing. Furthermore as leaky as the Japanese Finance Ministry obviously is don't you think the price of gold would have reflected that possabililty already or long before the act begins. If anything it looks like they are selling gold.

Oil is weakwhat power does OPEC have to demand gold backing/gold priced gold. The CRBN is about ready to fall into a new downleg out of a horrible looking formation. The Asian currencies are weak again their stock markets and property markets are weak again - we saw that wasn't bullish for gold in October -why will it be this time.???

Buffett may not have sold but maybe he sold opotions on his metal.

Where is the bullish arguement. The price tells all and THEY STINK as they SINK. The only bullish thing I can see out there is copper and how long do you think that will last given slowing economies.

No feloow Kitcos we ere duped by ourselves. The turn is not at hand. Just another rally over the 200 day moving average in the XAU that fails.
Hey don't get me wrong if any of the arguements for the metals ever begin to be expressed in price trend that's maintainable I'll jump back on board big time. And don't give me this stuff about the price of gold and its weak sister silver jumping out of site on night never to be caught. Again, the markets will begin to reflect any sea change before it happens and it ain't doing any reflecting in these eyes.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:22 - ID#255151)
Retype This might put a ring in the nose of the mighty stock bull!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:22 - ID#330175)
Stats(most of em bad,EH)...........Dollar-Yen=131.75 +1.97
June ( ugh ) gold down 1.60 @ 307.40 ( 3,000$$$ gold doesn't look possible t'day,huh ) .....But it is a beautiful day @ Cape Breton!!!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:23 - ID#330175)
Stats(most of em bad,EH)...........Dollar-Yen=131.75 +1.97
June ( ugh ) gold down 1.60 @ 307.40 ( 3,000$$$ gold doesn't look possible t'day,huh ) .....But it is a beautiful day @ Cape Breton!!!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:25 - ID#330175)
Stats(most of em bad,EH)...........Dollar-Yen=131.75 +1.97
June ( ugh ) gold down 1.60 @ 307.40 ( 3,000$$$ gold doesn't look possible t'day,huh ) .....But it is a beautiful day @ Cape Breton!!!--Yo Bart---I'm havin trouble postin---what's the problemO?????

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:27 - ID#330175)
'Loonie Tunes'.............................and soooo sorry fer the triple-post,eh

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:33 - ID#60253)

Together, we can talk of this new gold market. In a day, or two, we will have much to discuss. I look forward to this.

The Kitco Co., it offers more to the world than a business, "it provides a stage for minds to meet"! This service is of much value to all, yes?

Thank You

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:34 - ID#31868)
jims - Buffett is not sell, leasing, nada.
If anything he is buying more.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:35 - ID#255151)

Here is a Wiley Coyote page.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:39 - ID#255151)

Welcome back, ANOTHER! Ya like Wile E. Coyote?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:42 - ID#339320)

Good to see you.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:48 - ID#330175)
Auric----Thanks...................................* go gold*
another---no thanks,yes?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:48 - ID#31876)
Ric Ackerman's Article Dated April 13
A day at Kitco would not be complete without mention of this
one on the golden-eagle thread.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:52 - ID#288369)
It is a truly wonderful day, and it is wonderful to hear from you again. You have many good friends here, and they are pleased.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 07:59 - ID#36156)
Welcome back ANOTHER! You were missed...

(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:00 - ID#31868)
Studio_R - re: Steinbrenner party in OK,
I am interested in the festivities planned.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:02 - ID#288369)
@All....gotta get on that sheet music, argh! Somebody say.......
LOUIE, LOUIE!!! Now that's classic-al music. uh huh. E...a one, a two, a.... Everybody have a profitable day! GO GOLDBUGS! stuck my feengah....oops.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:03 - ID#217177)
2000 lots of July silver sold overnight ? Weak stomachs against Buffet, huh ?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:04 - ID#411149)
Ain't nobody mentioned the MELTDOWN in the EAST last nite.
Japan down 2.5% and s. Korea down 14%. Somebody don't like stocks,
is that good for gold?

Tally Ho

(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:05 - ID#339274)
April 20
FWIW April 20 will give us the bottom and the platform for
gold to hit 340,plat 470,and silver 7.50 the next two to three
weeks. Happy trading

(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:09 - ID#255151)

Yahoo has Japan and S. Korea down about 2.5% each. Hadn't heard 14% drop.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:12 - ID#288369)
City Fathers are planning it...don't know details yet....only that it involves a cattle prod. bzzzzzzzzz! This will hurt us more than it will him....yea, sure!.....GEORGE COME ON DOWN!!!!

Mike Sheller
(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:16 - ID#347447)
Tolerant 1, Another
TOLERANT: Look at your right arm and you'll see the Moon. I am doing toe exercises now.

ANOTHER: This is the TRUE gold, and the great beauty of Kitco - the meeting of minds in a grand sport and art - SPECULATION. To speculate is to think "what if?" Everything of wonder man has acheived has been founded upon that question which so boldly borders upon statement. We each bring our pieces of the puzzle to the table, and eventually the picture will become clear. Or, at the very least, clearer than it would have been had we speculated alone.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:17 - ID#240120)
Hold on to you hats !
We have seen a fairly sharp deterioration in asian and european stock markets so far today. IMHO this is the start of the second major down-wave in Asia and also marks the beginning of the end for European and US stock markets. A very serious collapse in global equity markets is only just around the corner. I believe that this may occur as early as Monday 20th April 1998. Hold on to your hats and don't look down !

G o G o l d

(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:24 - ID#288369)
@Auric, mo' thang......(off topic-must read)...........
Front page of Oklahoman this a.m........Moose Skowron, Hank Bauer, Enos Slaughter, Tommy Byrne ( Yogi and Whitey in background ) putting their handprints in cement at our ballpark. They all look great and happy! YES! BBL

(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:24 - ID#255151)
Executive Branch Intimidation?

Read what this person's opinion of the Executive Branch is--

(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:25 - ID#206358)
forecast.............GOLD DOWN HEAVILY!
Read one TAIWAN investment com predicted the gold will DOWN heavily!Let see,....just predict...NO HARM!
Good luck!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:25 - ID#401460)
Asia Markets
Nikkei 225
2:05AM 15883.77 -415.53 -2.55%

Asian Markets

``The fall is serious in a sense that it was not caused by specific, new factors. ( The Nikkei ) fell in sluggish sentiment as the yen weakened,'' said Manabu Tokuno, an analyst at Dai-Ichi Securities.

Yen @ 131+

Watch the US employment numbers due out shortly.


(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:30 - ID#401460)
The Numbers

Look out numbers are strong!
Fewer unemployment claims.
Housing starts still strong.

Watch the Bond now.

Increase in interest rates in the future?

S&P Futures - 4.60 now


Mike Sheller
(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:30 - ID#347447)
Rhino Alert
Classic short term price Rhino forming in the daily chart of SSC. Could be a nice clue to future of silver. Support on the downside at 1.00, upside breakout point currently at 1 3/8. Above 1 3/8, SSC meets next resistance at $2.25. If it breaks out it will get there quite fast, and indicate that silver will be making a move toward $8 at the least ( or is it lease? ) . Have a great day all.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:31 - ID#347447)
You have a wonderfully subtle sense of humor, Jin. Have a great night!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:31 - ID#349224)
Economic Message to All (interesting responses encouraged!)
1. I have been reading ( lurking on ) this forum for perhaps 2 months. I find it very interesting, and thought I'd put in my $.02 worth. I'd like to challenge the thinking of a few Kitcoites. Send me a note about what you think. You can reach me at>

I am a male 52 year old electrical engineer here on the East Coast of the USA and run a very small electronics company. I am at least temporarily a gold bug ( for maybe a few more years? ) ; I have to be, considering our situation here in the USA: high crime and illegal drug use, teenage pregnancies, deteriorating educational system, overvalued stock market etc.

2. As an engineer I rightly or wrongly look at some real-world phenomena as "feedback control systems". That is, there is a box with inputs and outputs. Each feedback control system has characteristics such as gain and bandwidth. Consider the similarities of driving your car to that of the global financial marketplace. When you drive your car down the road at 20 miles per hour ( low gain and bandwidth ) and you hit a pothole, you wrestle with the steering wheel for a few seconds and you continue down the road. On the other hand, when you drive down the road at 100 miles per hour ( high gain and bandwidth ) and you hit a pothole you go off the road. Right now on the DOW with a price/book nearly 6, PE's at nearly 23 and a dividend yield that just dropped below 1.6 for the first time in history, we are "driving" the DOW at maybe 150 miles per hour.

3. I really feel that I should be as fully invested as possible ( I'd like to have a nestegg before I get too old ) . Considering the worldwide financial situation I can't justify buying any blue chips ( or red chips either for that matter ) . Right now most of my investments ( no I'm not a millionaire, but it would be nice to be ) are in Swiss francs, Deutschmarks, Ursa Rydex, and gold shares. I just bought some Microsoft Jan 2000 put leaps recently as well ( how bout some AOL puts as well? ) . On paper I've taken a beating the last two years on most of my investments. Of course, it is not necessary for a bear to make his/her investments at the exact market top. I did take a loss on some S&P500 puts that expired, but I considered that insurance. You see, as long as the economy is ok, my business does ok; I don't need investment profits right away. When the market tanks, and business profits go down, then my investments will show strong profits. Yes, I am getting impatient with the market just as you are.

4. Let's take a look at my simplistic analysis of the market's timing and direction. Let's look at the events that could affect our situation. Of course, driving along in the marketplace at 150 miles per hour, even an Orange County or Barings Bank failure could run the economy off the road.

A. Clinton situation ( Zippergate, Whitewater etc. ) : This looks like a net minus for the economy if Ken Starr has some really damaging information to report. All of this depends upon what I call the "in your face" effect. Remember what happened to Gary Hart. When the photos on the Monkey Business ( Donna Rice ) were released "in your face" you could stick a fork in him; he was done. The Willey interview was almost enough to seriously damage Clinton; it was powerful, but the White House spin machine went into overdrive. Ken Starr is not stupid; he is probably not tilting at windmills. If the full Monica tapes become public that's probably it for Clinton.
B. Saddam Hussein: This looks like a net minus, because all the good news ( UN brokered settlement and first inspections ) is already done with. The next news will probably be bad.
C. Bosnia: This can't be good news, and if substantial fighting breaks out, it would be very bad. It looks as though the US government is determined to continue wasting money there.
D. Japan: Things there seem to continue to worsen, and the Japanese government doesn't seem to have a clue. Their biggest banks have "junk" status.
E. China, Hong Kong and other asian tigers: The latest good news ( partial recovery? ) is probably just a "dead tiger bounce".
F. USA budget surplus: IMHO there will not be a surplus. What a joke. Congress just announced a 1.7 trillion budget for next year.
G. Oil: How long can oil remain so low? What happens when the reins of government in Saudi Arabia pass from western-friendly King Fahd to his successor? I bet once we get beyond this next recession/depression some folks are going to make ENORMOUS PROFITS in energy and energy-related stocks. See "Oil Shock" below.
H. Russia: How much longer will Yeltsin be in charge? He's not so hot, but at least there has been some stability during his rule. How long can his health last? He says he won't run again.
I. Inflation or Deflation: Either way, both are considered economically dangerous. Both can drive precious metals skyward due to uncertainty about the economy. Soon, the stress on the USA economic system will be bad enough that it won't matter what AG does to interest rates.
J. Corporate profits: Don't you expect blue chip profits to slump seriously in 1998? Was it Jack Welch at GE that opined that there was manufacturing overcapacity worldwide in nearly every market? If the problems did not start in Asia, they could have just as easily started somewhere else. How can global overcapacity be good for the DOW or S&P500?
K. Y2K: If we manage to muddle through all of the above problems, the year 2000 problems will likely finish off the economy. Y2K is truly a BIG problem, if not in the USA, then elsewhere.

I recently saw a post on this forum that said that even though profits would soon drop, that the DOW would then just be flat for a while before resuming its climb. Consider a plot of the dividend yield on the stock market since 1875. It looks like a jagged sawtooth. That is, when the dividend yield gets to an extreme ( it was about 2.8% in 1929 ) and it starts to correct, it does so with a vengeance. Right now the DOW div yield is about 1.6% ( S&P 500 is about 1.4% I think ) . IMHO when it reverses it will do so as it has in the past, to the extreme.

It seems logical to get short now ( PM's, Ursa, Prubear, etc. ) to make money when the market tanks. Then in a few years pick up some nice stocks, real estate etc. at fire sale prices. Don't worry about the exact timing of the crash; you know it's a dangerous market. If you are employed, you probably don't need extra money now anyhow.

Yes, I know that the rules have changed. Up is down, down is up, good news is bad and bad news is good! No, this is all wrong. You and I can mug a stranger, rob a bank or whatever, so long as we are willing to pay the consequences, but we cannot break the laws of economics. Excuse me, but a MSFT PE of 60 is too high. An AOL PE of 600 ( or so ) is too high.

If you are still in denial ( you are still a bull ) , get a copy of "The 1997 New Paradigm Bubble" from InvesTech Research ( ) ; it's excellent. Or get a copy of Richard Maybury's Early Warning Report ( back issues $10 each, ) . Get a copy of "Oil Shock" from Michael Shafer ( c/o PMC, PO Box 84905, Phoenix AZ, USA, 85071, fax +1-602-943-2363 ) . I have no financial interest in these companies.

I'd love to hear your response to this posting!! Email at .

(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:32 - ID#31868)
Auric - the Coward Erect is a hog in pigs clothing.
As I have stated before, the hard right has not yet hit back. The abuse of the Executive Branch will destroy Clinton and any and all attached to him. Much is yet to be told to the broader audience.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:34 - ID#31868)
Mike Sheller - my left, your right,
you were sitting across a table, which side of the table do you sit at when gazing at the stars. ( yuk, yuk, should I reverse my investments )

I know I will pay for the above.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:36 - ID#22157)
Osho: No-thought for the Day
"The majority consists of fools, utter fools. Beware of the majority. If so many people are following something, that is enough proof that it is wrong.
Truth happens to individuals, not to crowds." Osho

The above needs no comments or explanation.

You can access Osho's site at Although this great master is no longer with us, his disciples maintain a webpage which features a "No-thought for the Day" for every day. There are a lot of other articles, excerpts from his books etc. He, like all great masters and men/women of great wisdom, never gives you recipes how to lead your life nor demand that you believe blindly whatever they teach, they rather make you think. Ok, see for yourself!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:40 - ID#401460)

June Gold $307.80
Yen 129.93
S&P -4.40


(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:46 - ID#255151)

Re your points 1. through 4.K -- Yes. Any one of those could be an iceberg that sinks the Dollar. Now, why is the Dollar kicking ass right now? I really don't know. My best guess is that we are in a humdinger of a blow-off now. Dow 10,000!? I'm buying more Gold. Stay tuned to Kitco.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:50 - ID#401460)
It's getting interesting again!

S&P -4.90
Gold $308.00


(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:53 - ID#22157)
More No-thought for the Day from Osho
"To me, disobedience is a great revolution.
It does not mean saying an absolute no in every situation. It simply means deciding whether to do it or not, whether it is beneficial to do it or not. It is taking the responsibility on yourself."

"Avoid those pretenders who decide for you; take the reins in your own hands.
You have to decide. In fact, in that very decisiveness, your soul is born.

When others decide for you, your soul remains asleep and dull.
When you start deciding on your own, a sharpness arises."

Can't help it, the above sums up what we have been discussing on this great site with regards to government intrusion in our daily life, anti smoking, anti gold etc. campaigners. I believe, and many of you have expressed similar opinions, that our duty her on this planet is to learn self respect and accept responsibility for our own actions, instead of always blaming someone else if things go wrong, such as governments etc. By blaming someone else we abdictate our own power and give our own life into the hand of some other persons or institution.

We must become our own masters.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 08:56 - ID#401460)

Thanks for the good post. The US$ is strong by default - what other currency would be used.

Gold eventually?

I may shop for some more Gold and mining shares soon. I will wait and see what the direction things take today and tomorrow.

S&P -4.20 thw dow will probably be up another 90 pts today on the good or bad news, they both work now.

I should have bought CheeseCake, instead of Gold, last fall.


(Thu Apr 16 1998 09:04 - ID#31868)
mybear - excellent post post
check out BEARX on nasdaq - it is run by David Tice. An excellent way to make money when the market heads south.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 09:06 - ID#401460)

4/16/98 -- 8:37 AM Economy,120
WASHINGTON ( AP ) - Housing construction slipped a bit in March from a 10-year high the
month before but builders remained exceptionally busy.

They started construction of new housing units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.59
million, down 2.8 percent from February, the Commerce Department said today.

It was the seventh consecutive month that starts exceeded 1.5 million, the longest such
string in nearly 11 years. And, despite the March decline, starts for the first three months of this year were 9.9 percent higher than the same period of last year.


(Thu Apr 16 1998 09:16 - ID#215208)
EB - Glad you are finding the channels charts useful. They are also one of my most useful tools. They called the platinum and palladium turn perfectly. If I hadn't been spooked by that $50 overnight spike in palladium, I would have made many more $$$ on this reversal. As to publishing them twice a week, the real value in the channels is that, if they are valid, they don't change very often.

Off ............. to stare at channels charts.

Interesting Times
(Thu Apr 16 1998 09:19 - ID#423355)
Good post. Yes, there are many heavy objects hovering in the air...

You might be interested in this site, if you haven't seen it:

Regards, I.T.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 09:26 - ID#218420)

(Thu Apr 16 1998 09:26 - ID#284255)
Talking back: Of crashes and credentials

(Thu Apr 16 1998 09:27 - ID#7568)

One of the large technically oriented funds appears to have gone short something on the order of 10 million ounces of silver overnight. Each time these guys have come in to trade the market, within three days we have had strong reversals of the then prevailing trend. They were buyers at between 720 and 780, sellers between 610 and 570, and now sellers again between 630 and 605. Often their selling is accomplished in two waves so it is not unlikely that another large short may appear. Since this information is widely known, a recovery from this level will probably be tentative. However, once it is established that no more sales will be coming from that quarter, we will likely get a sharp rebound. Depending on how short the market is in general, will determine the strength.

If my writing appears biased to the idea that a recovery will ensue, and that I don't seriously entertain thoughts about a severe decline, it is because this is what I believe. Every indication, from every quarter, and some from near the horses mouth, says that the serious longs are just that, serious. Their positions are macro-economic bets combined with the fundamentals of the silver market. The ideas supporting the outlook have not changed a bit, and if anything have strengthened.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 09:40 - ID#255151)
Breaking Napalm Disposal Fiasco Story An Indiana disposal company declined shipment. Now it's stalled in transit.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 09:47 - ID#339274)
Thanks for your latest post.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 09:49 - ID#238295)
Gold holding up pretty well considering Asia smash and meltdowns in the other PMs.

Leland: Rick Ackerman is way off base projecting a decline to Dow 700. He implicitly assumes the whole move from 1982 is a bubble. Nonsense! This was a healthy bull until a few years ago. I can see a 30-50% drop when the bubble bursts, but a 90% wipeout is ridiculous.

Cyclist: I am inclined to agree with your projections. Looking for XAU to approach 80 before blasting off again.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 09:59 - ID#66136)
All - Indication of SWC interview on CNBC tomorrow early AM

(Thu Apr 16 1998 10:01 - ID#284255)
The Y2K Files: Municipal Utilities Power Up to Deal With Millennium Bug
He added that it's essential for utilities to adequately test their systems to ensure proper operation, continued services, revenue collection, and "very importantly," no disruption in debt service payments to bondholders.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 10:03 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter - on Arch Crawford? - who knows more?
arch on gold - buy 'em - too good to miss ( caveat emp )

(Thu Apr 16 1998 10:09 - ID#224149)
Rainy Days
Eb You Asked Platinum Support 398 408 Gold you did not ask 301.20 Away bblt

(Thu Apr 16 1998 10:11 - ID#338228)
Cornucopia...not good news...

(Thu Apr 16 1998 10:22 - ID#7568)

With all the excitement in silver, I left out a very interesting development in the gold market. The same fund that went short silver is reputed to be a long gold holder. The sport in all these markets seems to be beat up on the technical trend followers. In this spirit, an attempt was made last night to run the stops on the downside of gold in order to flush out this fund. As can be seen from the price of gold, this has not been successful.

The biggest reason for this appears to be central bank buy stops below the market. Now before anyone gets all excited about central bank buying, in all likelihood, the buying is related to options writing. One of the favorite CB strategies is to write straddles and then maneuver the market toward the strike price with both buying and selling when necessary. In addition to the straddle plays, a shift in the hedging strategy of gold miners may also be at work. Some of the larger gold mining concerns have replaced their short forward positions with long put positions. This gives them exposure to the upside and protection from the downside. Interestingly enough it also makes allies out of the option writers. In order for the writers not to lose money, gold must be stable or rising. If in fact some of the central banks have taken the other side of the insurance policy, it will be in thier interest to support the price of gold. The current action may be an indication of this new hedge configuration.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 10:24 - ID#339274)
FWIW,we should get a bounce in the bottom of the second hour from
83 to 84.4 in the third after that we will be travelling down
again to the 80 target.Happy trading

(Thu Apr 16 1998 10:31 - ID#7568)

No doubt this is an ugly bit of news for those unfortunate enough to own stock in this company, but it should be regarded as good news for those that own gold. This is just another reminder of the toll that these prices are taking on the gold mining industry. Each mine that shuts down and each project that gets delayed just puts more pressure on the supply side of the equation.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 10:32 - ID#31868)
D.A. 10:31
Exactly right!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 10:34 - ID#57232)
Which way gold?
D.A.: You mentioned a CB interest in pushing the price of gold up. Any commments about possible gold sales in SEAsia? Just how bad do you think the situation is there? Did you see Jin's post? And APH's?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 10:34 - ID#344308)

ok...who has the url for the channel charts?

every picture tells a story don't it? mod rod stewart

the nikkei and other asian links....

earl---back to ya later on the grains.....gtsabdass$.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 10:34 - ID#251166)
Re. The Purpose of the Welfare State

-- following up on last night's thread ( tolerant1, Lock'n Load, 223, et al. )

In an employee-controlled government ( ie. a modern "democracy" ) , employees seldom have incentives to either reduce the costs of government or the price charged to their "customers" ( tax payers ) . Where conditions impose strong price resistance, in the form of opposition to higher taxes, governments controlled by employees are more likely to let their revenues fall below their outlays than to cut their outlays -- that is, their incentives incline toward chronic deficits.

The easiest way ( for government ) to get permission to "invest" funds in activities with little or no direct financial return is to ask for permission from someone other than the person whose money is coveted ( cf. the Dutch buying Manhattan for $23 in beads from Indians who did not own the property ) . Think about it: What if you went into a furniture store to buy a sofa and the salesperson took your money then proceeded to foist a cheap coffee table at you while consulting other salespersons about the rightness of such a transaction? Ridiculous, no?

No. However, since there are not enough employees put on the ( government ) payroll to create a working majority, increasing numbers of voters are *effectively* put on the payroll. Recipients of transfer payments and subsidies become pseudogovernment employees able to dispense with the bothersome formality of reporting to work each day.


Distilled from *The Sovereign Individual,* ch. 5, "The Life and Death of the Nation-State," by Davidson & Rees-Mogg; Simon & Schuster, 1997, US$25.

Spud Master
(Thu Apr 16 1998 10:42 - ID#273112)
Open Letter to the Japanese people
End your obsesiance and slavery to your American Federal Reserve thug-lords, and our shameless, dishonourable President and his lacky sycophants!

You have been deceived, manipulated and used long enough.

End it now.


(Thu Apr 16 1998 10:44 - ID#25171)
It is likely that the recent correction in Gold price is due to Australian producers hedging.With the A$ getting weaker the price of GOLD in A$ is sharply higher and it is possible that a lot of sell orders were executed around 475/478 A$ per ounce.
Gold mining being a pillar of the australian economy, it is always a wonder to see how these people can be so shortsighted.The industry was pissed by their CB sale of Gold and now they are acting as dumb caping the market with their sale.
I think the market won' t go below 302.
This technical retracement is a good buying opportunity before a test of 315 by the end of next week.
The fact that the sale was mostly absorbed by FUND buying is rather bullish in itself and show a change of psychology for the strong hands.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 10:45 - ID#338228)
Here's to the good...the bad...and the ugly. Just wish I could see a little more of the good lately because the ugly is really looking ugly.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 11:04 - ID#340459)
15 Billion Dollars wiped more in Cendant alone overnite. Go Gold Go....
Dont be afraid of Paper Tigers.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 11:04 - ID#338228)
mentioned yesterday...BGO to acq. Arian Resources...

(Thu Apr 16 1998 11:07 - ID#289357)
Frustrated (la guerre sur l'or)
Can I please borrow your handle for a while???? ANOTHER talks about much paper burning - I'm getting a little weary of it being MY paper - the physical is looking better and better, yes?

Oh, well........Think there will be ANY trees standing in this forest after the clear-cutting is finished?


(Thu Apr 16 1998 11:09 - ID#340459)
@SilverBaron, Hang in there my Brother, We are all in the same boat
Someday WE will be right...

(Thu Apr 16 1998 11:12 - ID#210235)
@Where's Donald?
He hasn't posted his XAU/spot, etc. since Monday the 13th.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 11:14 - ID#340459)
A $ 30 Billion Dollar (Cendant) cut in half today. Gold is the refuge of the scared
Please Note that 16 Million shares traded outside of NYSE open.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 11:16 - ID#266105)
@ 'get' camdessus

sharefin ( ANOTHER big joke ) ID#284255:
-The Ponzi Pair - By Jim Rogers


Good hatchet job, Jimmy. The chops are starting to
fall from every direction.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 11:17 - ID#31868)
jonesy - the welfare state will collapse under its own weight. The BADfare state
and the BAD state of affairs in America will be tied to the ankles of the current administration, and rightly so, like a pair of cinder blocks with bad intent near a large body of water. The US government is in for serious problems. The people on their payroll and the people who will watch their life savings get wiped out will turn on the government with a vengence. Clearly the numbers the government puts out are a scam. When this information comes out as things turn for the worse there will be hell to pay.

I have been rethinking my position on the possibility of Executive Orders on the part of the Coward Erect. The Executive Branch is being attacked daily now for the reckless and criminal acts it has and is performing.

In the midst of a severe economic downturn the government employee is going to take a harsh stance with the "boss" and the individuals that watch their life savings get wiped out will be livid to say the least.

It is my contention at this point that the life of the Coward Erect could be threatened by various factions as the facts rise to the surface and the facade of strength created by smoke and mirrors, lies and deceipt, are made known as it relates to the numbers released by the current administration.

The hard right in the US has yet to be heard from and it will roar when the above scenario plays out, if things go sour the way I see them coming together.

The general media will come under attack as well, as they have done nothing to investigate the tidal wave of bad information being foisted on the "public."

The US will undergo a period of extreme instability and violence. Then things will calm down, a new cycle will begin, life will go on. The welfare state will have to wait to rise from the ashes until enough of the population has died off that lived through the former stupidity and a new crop of dummies will be cultivated.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 11:23 - ID#298259)
Not until I'm finished with it and that looks to be sometime far off in the future...but I'm still young...I can wait.

BTW...Silver & Gold Report issued a buy on Pacific Amber Resources here is what they had to say:

* Pacific Amber ( PCR on the VSE ) : Finally, some good news: The
company just signed a joint venture with Pandora Industries on a new
property in Mexico. Just north of the property, a highly mineralized
gold vein has been sampled, turning up 3.45 grams per ton of ore. That's
enough to pique our interest and upgrade the shares to a "buy." Add,
paying up to C$0.50.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 11:28 - ID#289357)

The latest event noted by Frustrated has not much of a monetary effect on me ( I only owned 1000 shares of this, so if it goes to zip I'm only out a grand ) ......It's the pattern of events in some of these companies which has emerged that bothers me. If something doesn't happen pretty quick - there's gonna be a lot more dead wood out there - I suppose ultimately very bullish for the survivors, if you can pick 'em.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 11:31 - ID#324266)
Those psuedogovernment employees would also vote as a block for politicians like President for Life Clinton, and would gleefully give a hard time to the "commodity fetishists" who own and trade precious metals.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 11:33 - ID#31868)
Buy lots of TNX - Tan Range Exploration - you won't be frustrated.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 11:35 - ID#340459)
Go Gold Go...
The Strong Dollar is killing it and all other forms of currency in it's path.
US, The World's biggest borrower is considered strong while Japanese, the largest World Creditor is broke. This kind of logic is not for simple mind's.

The Project is not "Get Japan back on Track" for Japan as epoused but take them for a manipulated financial ride.

America is like a Super Market, we you can get all in one place. It requires constant Traffic like the Japanese moving through the aisles..

(Thu Apr 16 1998 11:36 - ID#289357)
I tried to send email to you, but it keeps being returned. I will try later to resend it. .

(Thu Apr 16 1998 11:44 - ID#7568)

The people that are in the process of dying off now ARE the welfare state. Now matter how you slice it, the biggest transfer of wealth being engineered by the US government is from the young to the old. It is happening in the form of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and all manner of government pension. This and only this is what is responsible for the tax burden. Having just written the IRS a rather generous allotment of my net worth, I am acutely aware of realities.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 11:47 - ID#340459)
Market Curbs can slow the fall, but law of gravity is God's.
Go Gold Go

(Thu Apr 16 1998 11:48 - ID#7568)

Here's a bit of good news. Brother Bart's cash price of gold is now up 10 cents.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 11:57 - ID#286230)
The Welfare State
Watched a TV program on taxation levels a couple of night ago. It/they said that the total US tax is about 29% --from all sources. This compares with about 50% in Canada and about 60% in Holland. So I think welfare taxation in the US could about double before it approaches that of prosperous cradle to grave welfare states. Of course other views might be held by some.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 11:58 - ID#31868)
Got it and replied, MSN was having trouble earlier with POP3. ANd don't forget, space is the place man!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 11:58 - ID#228100)
Buy PM's from the Public?
Has anyone had any experience buying silver and PMs from the general public? Im considering placing an ad in the local newspaper. Something like:

OLD COINS WANTED: Paying cash: 2.5x face value for 1964 and older dimes and quarters. Call xxx-xxx-xxxx.

I would list my cell phone number ( which isnt listed, no address for potential thieves ) , and meet sellers in very public places.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:03 - ID#31868)
Things will be much different in 24/36 months.One of which will be your ever having to write a check to the Ignominious Robbing Slugs ever again.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:04 - ID#20748)
D.A.: Could it be Armstrong again ?
Your 10:22. Martin Armstrong advocates long gold and short silver as the true play in metals today. Go here,, click on metals, then on market update of 4/14/98.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:06 - ID#7568)

I haven't got a clue about anyone out there selling gold. The currencies are relatively stabile for the moment, and that's all I'm really looking at down there.

One other clue as to the health of SE Asia is the base metal markets. Their strength as of late leads one to believe that the destocking is behind us, and that at least some metal is flowing back.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:07 - ID#340459)
Silverman, CEO, sold 300,000 shares at 41 on 6th March and the Company took a US$15 Billion Haircut
this morning. Go Gold Go..

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:07 - ID#339274)
FWIW xau wants to break out already in the third hour ahead
of the cycle low,very impressive.85 is the number.
PDG says it is making money 300 an ounce.Cash cost 178.
Load up on pdg : )

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:08 - ID#384350)
Tolerant1, the welfare state
I don't think it is the intent but I am convinced a result of the welfare state is just that, a cultivation of the next crop of dummies. Don't Feed the Pigeons!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:09 - ID#287338)
Hang in There! June Gold now $309.00
We knew it would not be easy getting this Gold Bull started. Do you really expect gold to go straight up in its beginning bull market as the DOW is now? The change in bear to bull and bull to bear markets is usually noted by swings up and down before the next bull or bear market begins. Hang in there! While I would hardly call a couple of dollar drop in Gold a swing down I would be on the lookout for more volatility. Expect contradicting news, rumors and attempts to manipulate the market by the shorts & the longs before this Gold Bull is fully on his way.

We all have our own opinions however some of us get a little depressed when gold drops a few bucks. Just do your evaluations and make up your mind. Decide what to do and stick with! I'm speaking long term of course.

Just remember the reasons why gold has risen over the past month. Gold is developing a new trend and what has happened in the past years after rallies will not happen again. The shorts will continue to get burned, this time, in the years ahead.

That's my story and I'm stickin to it!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:14 - ID#340459)
On the Bright side atleast Pol Pot is dead..
Go Gold Go...

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:14 - ID#20748)
Blewinsky ?
This just showed up on the Drudge Report. Possibly contributing to the price of POG.

Kenneth Starr has scheduled a news conference for 1 p.m. EDT at the U.S. Courthouse in Washington, where a federal grand jury has
been hearing evidence in the Monica Lewinsky case...

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:16 - ID#288295)

Exchange coins/money in THEIR bank ( and only pay with cash ) ...Don't go alone...Don't drive YOUR car to meet them...No personal experience here, just common sense.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:17 - ID#57232)
RJ where are you? Oldman, we miss you too! The Kitco calm has returned.
RJ: We have some excellent posters, such as D.A., Old Gold, APH, Cyclist to keep us informed, as well as our COMEX watchers.

But -- now that Kitco calm has returned, how about letting us know what the floor traders are doing with gold. My guess is that gold is heading down for a time -- as I think you said -- maybe 290, or 300. New lows are out of the question unless there is a total market meltdown, and AG et al throw in the kitchen sink. Unlikely.

I am still waiting for a sign that we are heading for that rise to 600/oz that Frank Veneroso predicted -- even 350 would be nice. But it is like watching paint dry.

Sharefin: Do you know what the Oldman is saying these days about gold and the markets?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:17 - ID#31868)
Gianni Dioro - I disagree, this crop is going to be harvested by the market
as they have been robbed by the lying dog politicians and bankers. The braindead have been harvested financially by the pols and ban, the political harvest will not again occur for a long, long time.

From the ashes a swing to the far right will occur, because when the blood is in the street there will be new faces in Washington and across the nation in the various seats of "power."

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:17 - ID#340459)
Yahoo p/e now 1226 and counting. Yahoooo.........
Go Gold Go..

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:18 - ID#7568)

Just a guess, but I think Mr. A. would not let fly with one of his little missives unless he already had a position.

Last nights selling was almost certainly one of the big trend following funds. Perhaps Mr. A. has figured out the system and was front running it. If so, my hat's off to him.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:20 - ID#251166)
"Is there anything to look for that will tell us when the problems have started? At first the US$ and gold will go up together against all other assets!"
-- ANOTHER 11/3/97, 07:31

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:21 - ID#324266)
JSE All Gold Index down 1.28% to 923.
JSE All Shares and Mining Finance indices continue to rise.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:22 - ID#24864)
XAU just popped from 84.50 to 85.50 in a few minutes.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:22 - ID#57232)
D.A: Appreciate your response. Jin is often reliable, and his posts tend to give us news before we find out through regular channels. But -- your news sources are bound to be better than ours at Kitco.

I'm tired of watching the paint dry on our gold bull. Silver is much livelier.

silver plate
(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:24 - ID#234253)
Strength: To all
Have you noticed the continuous buying and the resilence in NEWMONT mining? Big block buying between 32 and 321/2. Somebodys big money has faith in the future.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:24 - ID#215208)
cherokee - If this is the channels chart you are referring to, there is no URL. I maintain it and post it fairly regularly. Although some judgement is requred in drawing the channels, the real trick is to have faith in them once they are drawn. As usual, when a reversal occurs, most everyone is predicting that the upward or downward trend will continue. From what I can tell of your posts, you know this well.

Happy trading!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:24 - ID#288369)
@We know what the POG is going to do; however, .....
Can anyone here tell me which craze will collapse first...the Holy Dow or Beanie Babies? This is where I am concentrating my technical expertise...I am utilizing, primarily, complex Fideo-Mediano analysis methods. I am really straining my noodle over this one. Any help would be appreciated...a truly difficult pastalation, eh?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:26 - ID#20748)
D.A.: As Mike Sheller would say,
it is all in the Starrs. But, giving credit where credit is due, Martin Armstrong maintains that a rise in POG is related more to political turmoil than to anything else.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:33 - ID#432137)
1987 crash, gold mutual funds fell like a rock

In the 1987 stock market crash mutual family fund stocks fell like a rock,
I know, I lost about half my holdings. WILL THIS HAPPEN AGAIN IF WE SEE ANOTHER CRASH SOON?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:34 - ID#288369)
Good tidings headed your way....Thanx. I lasted 2 hours at the office...Kitco is my real job. uh huh studio.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:35 - ID#348129)
@AU & Canada
Wow Gold up .60 in the face of plunging white metals, and an Asian meltdown.
Canada "Gave" Tiawan $500. million on Wednesday - Brilliant move Paul Martin - Now can you get our F'ing Dollar any lower ??????
Get out of the way, 320. Gold coming to a Gold Store near you.....

Steve in TO__A
(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:40 - ID#209265)
Mybear- Clinton's future
Hey mybear-

Saw your post this AM. Just a provocative thought for you re:
your ideas conecrning the Clinton evidence.

People often talk about how the Nixon impeachment caused stocks to
drop and gold to rise. The reality is that it was a peripheral
event- in fact the cause and effect were the other way 'round.

It took until late in Nixon's 2nd term for the Democrats & the media
to force him out. He won a bigger reelection landslide than
Clinton did, even though the Watergate scandal was known and
was under investigation at the time, just like Clinton's Whitewater,
travelgate, filegate, etc. scandals were known.

Even with a viciously partisan mob of democrats and a very antagonistic
media after him, Nixon was invulnerable as long as the economy was
doing well. Americans vote their pocketbooks: it's cynical, unfortunate
truth that needs to be said, and the unthinking masses ascribe economic prosperity ( and misfortune ) to the president, just like they personify so many other things that are really bigger than any one person, and are beyond anyones control.

Remember Clinton coming from behind over Bush with the slogan "It's
the economy, stupid?" Several academics have shown that the only
thing that correlated directly with Nixon's fortunes was the economy,
and when the great bear market began in 1944, his fate was sealed,
that was when the tide began to turn against him.

The bear market was already on when Nixon was forced out, stocks would have gone down no matter who had been president. The only difference Nixon made was that the slide was probably acellerated somewhat by the uncertainty surrounding his removal. Nixon had also supervised the closing of the US gold window. Gold was going up because of decades of stupid US policies- and it would have gone up if any other president had done the same thing.

So here it is: Clinton's huge popularity ratings have to do with the
fact that the great mass of the American public believes he's somehow behind the wonderful prosperity everyone is experiencing right now- and nobody wants to rock the boat by forcing him out. After all, who knows what that might do to the economy. But once the economy starts to tank- look out, the public will turn on him like piranhas on a capybara.

BTW- Clinton knows this. His most frantic behind-the-scenes efforts have involved putting insiders in the various federal agencies that issue economic reports, and in the plunge protection efforts of Mr. Rubin at al.. You only read about that stuff in the boring financial press though- the herd wants sex scandal news. The people continue on, oblivious to the things that will really affect their lives. . . .


(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:40 - ID#20748)
JTF : Oldman is busy counting his money,
but he is a regular at the Avid Traders Chat, You have to register but it is well worth it. Oldman is a day trader, a consummate day trader, of SPOOs. So you have to lurk on the Avid channel to keep abreast of his thinking. As for gold, I think he will start trading it only after he spots a trend change.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:41 - ID#227238)
Selby: When looking at global tax comparisons it should be realized that many of those "looksee's" do not include state tax loads in the US total. Rather the comparison is made on a federal basis only. When state and local taxes are properly included I think the US will compare "favorably" with others. ....... No doubt we could do more however. ..... : )

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:41 - ID#339274)
FWIW.Xau survived the low of yesterday and is making a retrace
back to 84.8 ,don't rely on it.Look at the 30 mins XAUchart.
Commodities have bottomed out see ,the copper chart.
It is going to be a lively summer,happy trading
PS the juniors will now do extremely well

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:44 - ID#251166)
It's all red except Mexico
Dow, Nasdaq, etc. all down

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:53 - ID#340459)
They will try to keep DOW losses at not more than 1% today.
Go Gold Go..

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:53 - ID#246224)
Turning up again like a bad ..
penny! Hi, everyone! Has anyone timed these fandangos? Possibly a 28 or 56 day cycle? An interesting analysis may follow.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 12:54 - ID#288369)
@Come on Kenny Starr, we can take it..............
Oil up 75 cents in two days....Gold ready to move...all aboard!

Gold Fevor
(Thu Apr 16 1998 13:06 - ID#432137)
1987 crash, gold mutual funds fell like a rock

1987 stock market crash, GOLD mutual funds fell like a rock, I know, I lost half my holdings. Why, doesn't anybody talk about this history of facts? Are the big boys afraid that the little guys will pull out thier mutual fund gold stocks ( millions ) and cause gold to faLL, if this information is given? LETS BE HONEST HERE?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 13:10 - ID#345176)
@ Gold Fever on 1987 gold stock crash

Many times the 1987 crash has been discussed in this forum. Also what effect a similar crash will have onto gold stocks.

At that time gold stocks were overpriced and tanked with the market. This is not the case now.

Please read previous posts.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 13:11 - ID#317193)
Spot Gold not below $305-thank you God, I may not be crazy!
Patience my son, patience. Hope this trend holds. Tom

(Thu Apr 16 1998 13:14 - ID#340459)
I will watch POG closely after Ken Starr's press conf. Iraq is back on US radar
Go Gold Go, everything is right for your move..

(Thu Apr 16 1998 13:17 - ID#238295)
JIMS: You have a tendency to throw in the towel at the first hint of trouble. Your heart is in the right place, but you probably are reading too many bearish posts. This is not how wars are won.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Apr 16 1998 13:22 - ID#384350)
propogation of the lower classes
Tolerant1, yes I agree with you. My point was that in the past, wealthier classes didn't want to have additional children if it would lower their well-being/social status. Lower classes didn't want to have additional children if they could not provide for them. The welfare state mostly takes away this restriction for the lower classes and this is what I meant by the welfare state cultivating a new crop of dummies or creating poor. I agree with you that after all those you call "dummies" have been milked in a debt trap, the system will collapse.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 13:23 - ID#289357)

Holy DOW vs. Beanie Babies? My guess is the DOW collapses first, although I can't convince my dear but daffy wife to unload hers ( I have tried ) . She's up about 500% SINCE OCTOBER ( seriously ) on these silly things.

Manias never make any sense to the outsiders.


(Thu Apr 16 1998 13:24 - ID#251166)
Kitco access slowing down . . .
. . . with the rising POG.

Where's Donald? I'm sure there's some Kitco Internet Speed / Bullion Up Tick ( KIS/BUT ) ratio to be calculated here.

Back to lurking.

BTW F* -- I doubled my position in gold this morning. Yup, I bought another eagle. IDCIBAnother!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 13:25 - ID#24864)
Perhaps technical traders could comment: Although the XAU gap was filled yesterday, the index again came back to the exact level to refill the gap - at 83.41. Interesting, Yes ? Happy Trading

(Thu Apr 16 1998 13:32 - ID#247309)
Silver Futures
The move this morning to $6.10 on the May silver is the end of the correction of the leg which began on 3/19 @ $5.54 and ran to 3/24 @ $6.47. The high of $6.71 on april 3 was an irregular correction. Should see $7.00+ soon. Ah, this silver tricky its been. Buy all the way down to $6.165. Good luck. And GO GOLD!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 13:37 - ID#31868)
Gianni Dioro - whoooooooooooooooooooosh right over my head.
Gotcha, I should have understood that from your post. I agree.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 13:40 - ID#340459)
DOW down 109 and counting.
Go Gold Go..

(Thu Apr 16 1998 13:42 - ID#288369)
Same situation here...$200.+ on some...Time to sell. Cabbage Patch what?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 13:44 - ID#31868)
interesting reading

(Thu Apr 16 1998 13:45 - ID#31868)
dabnabit! read daily Quotes section.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 13:45 - ID#410198)
Gianni-Dioro.......hows the weather to-day...let me guess cloudy with a few moments of sunshine :)

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Apr 16 1998 13:52 - ID#384350)
robnoel, weather in Eire
Not far off at all, sun is shining blue skies above and rain clouds are over the mountains, 5 miles away.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 13:56 - ID#57232)
NJ: Thanks -- I knew Oldman was on avid, but every so often he still posts here. Might have missed it. He probably will return to Kitco when he thinks gold is livelier than it is now.

I feel like the sailor who is becalmed without a whiff of wind or a ripple on the water. Gets pretty boring.

My intuitive guess is that a tug of war should start between the gold shorts and longs fairly soon. Maybe the big guys are waiting for a signal from the IMF G7 meeting, or from Japan.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 13:58 - ID#341189)
Gold Fever
I too am concerned about the shares following the stock market down. It may be worth keeping in mind that in 87, the shares were near their peak prices ( peaked in mid September ) as well as the fact that gold was in the 400's. ( later peaked in Dec 87 ) We are now near the bottoms of both share and spot trading ranges over the last 15 years. This tempers my concern about the gold share action when the stock market sobers up. I do, however, think that between now and the time when the general market decline occurs, we may see the gold shares run up. In that case, they most certainly would be vulnerable along with the rest of the market. This is a good reason to watch Donald's Xau/Gold ratio.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:01 - ID#340459)
Fidelity and Putnam alone owned 100+ Million shares, The Stock has shed more than $ 15 alone.
Only 2 Funds lost more than 1.6 Billion overnite..

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:02 - ID#340459)
I meant to say Cendant shares in my post below.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:04 - ID#340459)
Cendant is DesCendant..

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:06 - ID#246224)
Paper is good as long as it is good, no?
Been 'away', yes? Got ahold of a bank promissary note from 1860. Absolutely worthless now, but pretty. Bank is gone. Had the chance to think about this for a few days. Will bore you with the thoughts ( nothing terribly original ) .

( EB, you can start sleeping now, zzzzzzzzzz .... )

Banks, back when, had to hold bullion or US treasury notes which were payable in bullion ( silver ) . They received these on deposit and held them. They made loans to merchants, farmers and industrialists. At first they handed out the deposits, but later printed their own 'promissary notes' to represent the deposits ( which were redeemable for the bullion or US Dollars ( silver backed ) on demand ) . Most people trusted the bank to be honest and so used the notes as money. All was right with the world.

Usually these loans were for a growing season or a year. There was repayment fairly quickly. Long duration loans were hardly done. The bank prospered as it reaped interest and again lent out. The only problem was that they could only grow as fast as the amount of outstanding promissary notes ( loans ) were acrewing interest. There was great temptation to issue MORE notes than could be covered by the deposits. On occation a bank would perpetuate the fraud, be found out, a bank run would occure. Some people would lose their money. But everyone would learn that a bank was only as good as its owners' morals. And there was always the alternative of 1 ) putting one's own money to work by investing in a project of one type or another, or 2 ) holding one's gains as bullion till a more suitable opportunity arose.

Banks offered the possiblity of some physical security ( for bullion holders ) as well as management of loan risk. The down side was you never knew whether the bank was being honest or not. The idea of a bank was known to have risk involved. Issuance of notes beyond deposits was universally considered fraud. The anchor was physical bullion which could not be 'printed' into existence. There was a standard by which a bank was measured.


Today we have a worldwide monetary system which embodies an anchorless, standardless, fraudulant system of 'promises'. There is no ultimate standard to which these banks are accountable in maintenance of the promises they issue. In fact, the promises themselves have become the only reality virtually everyone uses as money. There is NO REAL DIFFERENCE between the Brazillian Real and the US Dollar. Whereas the Real has depreciated from the late 1970's to today on the order of 2,000,000 to 1, the US$ has depreciated "only" 2or3 to 1. Both the Real and the US$ are baseless currencies and there is nothing which garrantees that the US$ will not one day be worth 10 or 100 or 1,000 or 10,000 to 1 from here on.

When I hold that beautiful, worthless bank note from 1860 in my hands next to a new US$ bill I see things which have no permanent value. When I hold a gold or silver bullion coin in my hand I see something that has always been and will always be understood, regardless of time or nation or politics or economy: China, Russia, Europe, America, India, Japan.

It is not that silver or gold can be traded for so many Yen or Roubles or Euros or US Dollars. It is that these coins are far more precious than any paper currency system .. because they can not be printed into existence. The world economy and all its real goods and services are exactly equal to the total of gold and silver bullion in existence. This relationship will never change. The wealth of any kingdom has been the sum of its bullion and its real goods. The scarcity of bullion only makes it of greater value in relationship to all other tangible assets within the sovereignty.

That one can now trade paper for gold or silver at far below its 'price' in relationship to other tangibles as a whole is one of the truly impressive opportunities in the world today. They are indeed priced low.

THE arguement

It will be argued that only an idiot can think this way. The arguement is that people use paper money and do not value gold or silver as money anymore. They will point out that there is significantly little investment demand for it. They will argue that the paper system has led to prosperity and advancement beyond anything ever attained under a bullion based monetary system. They will argue that governments and economies can not be shackled by an 'inflexible' system of account.

THE counterpoints

The system as we know it has only been in existence since 1971 when the US unilaterally decoupled from gold. We have less than 28 years experience with a completely rootless monetary system. The first 12 of those years was pure financial chaos. When we have seen, most recently, the destruction of a nation's or region's currency ( ies ) we have witnessed the use of the 'final reserve' - gold, the universal money - to right the 'system' ( pay off debts ) . When banks needed to pay debts to other banks they paid in gold.

There is no proof that fiat paper currencies have single handedly created our current economic reality. This is asserted, but never proved. It is demonstrable that paper currencies are valued or debased relative to the consensus of those who use them. When nations no longer can garrantee the security or confidence they do now, then paper currencies will lose their mystical powers to delight. People will again find that silver and gold need no interpretation or garrantee. They are their own vouchesafe.

For all the TRILLIONS of US$s in the world there are only 120,000 metric tons of gold. TRILLIONS more US$s can be created instantly at the touch of a few buttons, but gold will never be debased by overproduction. When the buttons no longer work, then 120,000 metric tonnes of gold will exactly equal the worth of the entire world. It has always been that way, whether we recognize it or not.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:10 - ID#410198)
Gianni-Dioro,that was not tough to do,,,,would kill for a pub lunch right now,even if it's smoke

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:10 - ID#289357)
Eggactamundo! Probably first full week in May is the best time to sell.

Oh, yeah - Go Gold ( Sorry Bart )

DOW big trouble on close below 8800.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:15 - ID#57232)
After the turning point -- riding the Gold bug Tsunami
All: Yes -- when the US markets finally head south in the debt implosion, all equities will get hit in the suction. However, the US markets are likely to rally for a number of reasons, for some time to come. Also commodities are bottoming, probably due in part to what appears to be a begining rally in Europe post Euro budget maneuvering. Both of these are bullish for gold. The threat of a Japan implosion is not -- as we apparently saw today.

So -- we should all be on the alert for the beginning of the gold bug Tsunami -- probably a small one to 350-400/oz in the next 12 months. This could corellate with a doubling of precious metals equities. Nimble gold bugs will not get squashed as long as they remember to get off before the market crashes. As Mike Sheller has reminded us this AM, one clue may be a sudden rise in interest rates. Those who like less risky things can buy gold or silver, and still make a profit.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:16 - ID#340459)
Spot Gold / Silver has not moved in last 40 minutes..

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:17 - ID#286230)
Earl: The tax figures may have been Federal only but I doubt it. As I recall the focus was on comparing how much "the average" person paid in taxes in various countries and that a "total'" tax including hidden cigarette and gasoline taxes were included for the purpose. And--I'm sure we will all do better.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:23 - ID#426220)
Gold Fevor (1987 crash, gold mutual funds fell like a rock)

Gold Fevor: You might avoid another 50% loss, and indeed gain
50% OR MORE, if your read the analysis of what gols shares did ( and WHY ) in the Stock market declines of 1929 9and aftermath ) , 1973-73
and 1987. The title is "I'M NOT SO SURE..." and may be found at:

It will be necessary to to DELETE the "en" in the word "golden." Then paste together and then post to the Internet finder.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:24 - ID#289357)
INPATHIQUE - May be on to something here
Since I've been watching this forecast/trading system on the Toronto Precious Metals Index ( a couple weeks ) , they have been right on track....their forecast uptrend lasts until last week in July. Keep an eye open.......updated daily.

Aragorn III
(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:25 - ID#212323)
robnoel...your post yesterday at 18:23
I could not be in more agreement...with your SUMMARY! Such claptrap. I'm glad you provided that link. It is very insightful to read opposing viewpoints, and that lengthy diatribe endorsing fiat money has further clarified my thinking toward support of gold-driven economies. It would seem that some people ( such as that author ) would prefer to surrender all freedoms and decisions unto the goverment. The most rediculous notion was that under a gold standard the government would have a tougher time staving-off deflationary times because they couldn't simply print more cash, they'd somehow have to change the value of amount of gold represented by each dollar, ...blah blah blah. I submit that the free and independant business man is the appropriate entity to react...he could change his prices as he sees fit. The net result of the "ever feared" deflation is that an ounce of gold would buy more.
But I'll waste no further space preaching to the choir...

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:25 - ID#384350)
Allen, 20 Millionen Mark
Mr Allen, I liked your post. I have in front of me now a 20 million Mark Reichsbanknote from 1923. I paid about $1.50 for it. I came to the same kind of thinking as you. I held the 20 million mark note in my left hand and a new 20 note in my right hand. And then I thought what that 20 note would be worth in 50 years. Probably not the paper it's printed on.

Robnoel- the clouds have moved in.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:32 - ID#384350)
Aragorn, robnoel (that fuzzy thinking link)
That idiot claims to be a socialist, but he doesn't realise that the proletariat blue collar worker has more than likely suffered much more than the white collar class to the lack of a gold standard.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:36 - ID#263379)
"ANOTHER" prediction to shoot for!
It's very quiet here, so I reviewed some text of the words of "ANOTHER" Dated March 7, 1998 @ 15:18, last paragraph -
Messege directed to Mr. Old Gold from ANOTHER.
"However, it is now my view that the CBs have lost control! I expect a break above $360 to create an allout run to infinity, BEFORE YEAR END. Physical gold should be purchased for a lifetime holding, not a trade".

Would you say this is a prediction? The above should rattle a few cages.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:36 - ID#246224)
Gianni Dioro
I have started a collection of the same. I would like to get a Reichsbank note. Any clue as to where one might find such a thing? Also would like to get a Turkish Lira note. I was there in 1978/9 when 100 TL = 1 US$. Now its 100,000 TL to 1 US$. Want a Real real bad, too. Possibly a Russian Rouble ( C ) 1989. I've got a 1923 Hungarian 20 Kronor ( sp? ) note. Will be making a little album with footnotes, etc.

Its a fool and be fooled world we are living in, but will not continue forever. Until then, TTFN.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:38 - ID#218383)
Would it not be more efficient for YOU to remove the "en" in the URL when you post the message? BTW Any idea where your nemesis Herr G. Cheesehead has gone to? I miss his unwarrented exuberance.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:41 - ID#345176)
@ Gianni Dioro - 3 will buy a beer and some chips!

In 1967 I was earning 3 per day in Cambridge, UK, working
for PYE TVT Ltd., ( now owned by Harris ) .

Today 3 will buy you a pint of beer in a nice pub.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:41 - ID#384350)
Bring Back King George!
You'll know the end is nigh when CNBC invites George Herbert Walker Bush on the television to tell everyone the truth, That everything in the economy is just fine.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:41 - ID#410198)
Aragorn/Gianni-Dioro..the sad thing is that a lot of folks think like that,most are brokers pushing

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:45 - ID#20135)
Date: Thu Apr 16 1998 14:38
kitkat ( @vronsky ) ID#218383:

Its a long story. Just try it yourself. Trust me the extra work is workth it.

I dearly miss your old time updates noting new articles as they were listed on your site vronsky. BUT alas, I love Bart's site and I guess these little strange details give kitco character.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:45 - ID#247309)
Fiat currency
Allen - your a.m. post - additional thoughts

Governments control the printing of paper money, but in a large portion of the world they do not control the mining of gold. I used to own gold mines, and always marveled that I could find "money" in the ground. Mining gold is like "printing" money.
Also, printing stock certificates is like printing money, because the certificates once printed can be exchanged for government "money." Of course, the sale of stock is controlled by governments to some extent.
Curious, but the US government has printed paper money certificates to pour into the equity markets in huge amounts. The paper for paper transactions go on and on. Soon they may be revalued.
What gold bugs need to do is take the government paper and trade it for gold in the ground or gound above ground while some people still think the paper itself has value. A good deal, NO?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:46 - ID#20135)
Bart could you kick them p's. They are stuck again.

thanks in advance.


( WHERE IS SDRer????????? )

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:50 - ID#384350)
Allen, Reichsbanknote
I got mine from
Jersey Coin Co. Ltd.
26 Halkett St.
St Helier, Jersey
tel +44 1534 25743
fax +44 1534 509094

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:54 - ID#340302)
F*'s Evaluation of the GOLD market...
This will be an earlier report than usual and somewhat abbreviated. I have been on the phone all morning and now I am rushing out to a meeting I am told will last the entire afternoon.

To some extent, I am going out on the limb since the final market action is yet to be seen. So, I am extrapolating. However, if this report proves to be invalid, then naturally I will repost a revision at a later point.

GOLD is looking EXTREMELY BULLISH. We are definitely in a NEW GOLD PARADIGM and that was confirmed finally today. Gold moved upward slightly in the face of a very strong dollar and weak mark and yen. The Japanese are buying gold...believe it! Despite notable weakness in the DOW & NASDAQ...despite strength in the bond market ( Wall Street's current darling "flight to quality" ) ...despite new rumors of another imminent gold company ( Royal Oak ) collapse... the XAU strengthened on increasing volumes, thereby confirming its negative beta and contrarian function as a flight to safety.

In the past, when the DOW would zip down over 100 points, it was common to see the XAU move in the same direction. This development tended to lend credence to the notion propagandized by the Wall Street New Paradigm that gold retains mere mythical value, ready to be consigned to the dustbin of history. Moreover, this same development led to heightened fears on the part of the average gold investor since gold did not seem to perform its historical, contrarian hedge role.

What does the Wall Street New Paradigm have to say now that gold is acting once again in its traditional role as a global flight to safety?

The Precious Metals Relativity Index is extremely encouraging. Again, in the face of notable weakness in the white metals, gold strengthened, thereby auguring its inevitable upward move to reestablish historical equilibrium in the PM markts.

I have had no chance to read any Kitco posters today so I am unable to provide a Kitco barometer. I will do so later.

In conclusion, I can unambiguously state that there are golden fireworks in the offing. MAJOR golden fireworks.



(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:56 - ID#243235)
durban deep
inspired by strength in my TVX and AEM shares ( including today's recent move higher ) , i decided to take a nibble at nice chunk of Durban Deep at 2-5/8. wanted to pick it up lower, but tired of missing moves while holding out for a 1/4 better. any comments on Durban?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 14:58 - ID#345176)
@ Kitkat on CHEESEHEAD

CHEESEHEAD last Friday was going to a CHEESEfactory to get some CHEESESPREAD to make a sandwich to eat along with his CHEESEBREAD.
Last reports say that he was lost in an one-way street.

Good ol' boy
(Thu Apr 16 1998 15:03 - ID#26362)
If your on, I am not getting through with Again please!

Good ol' boy
(Thu Apr 16 1998 15:07 - ID#26362)
or "

(Thu Apr 16 1998 15:07 - ID#426220)
wyzzard (durban deep)

POLARBEAR did an excellent analysis on Durban Deep which was part of a report entitled: RANDGOLD. It may be found at:

It will be necessary to to DELETE the "en" in the word "golden." Then paste together before to your Internet finder.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 15:13 - ID#243235)
one for your stock market mania file: tired of having chased internet stock Mindspring from 33 to 75 ( while waiting for a pullback to 25 ) and watching Amazon approach $100 - valued at about $1 bil and NO PROFITS to speak of, thought i'd just jump in on the craze and buy some Infoseek three days ago. $22 a share for an internet stock? come on! everybody knows an internet stock should be trading for $100. and they're ONLY losing 93 cents a share. unfortunately, the day i plan to buy, Merrill initiated coverage and the stock is up $5. the day after, up another $9, today up another $8 or so. trading at $43. doubling in three days? why? why not! it's the internet for chrissake. "GET ME A PIECE AT WHATEVER THE PRICE! I DON'T CARE!"

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Apr 16 1998 15:18 - ID#384350)
So a day's wages in 67 buys you a beer and chips today. And they say inflation is dead.

The way I see it is that the only way the govt can try to save the stock market from crashing is by inflating. Social Security, which is just a plain ol' tax not an investment fund, if used to buy shares would be akin to the govt printing money with which to buy shares.

Something doesn't make sense there. The govt could just print money and pay interest on it as well, then buy controlling stakes in the country's industry???????? Isn't that what they call Socialism/Communism?

All is fine in Amerika, George Bush said so.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 15:18 - ID#426220)
wyzzard(durban deep)

wyzzard: thought this would interest you on DURBAN DEEP:


Gold bullion prices are indeed cyclic. In absence of extraneous influences ( war, political unrest in a major area, and/or other international calamities ) , there is a seasonal trend in gold prices.

According to a study made by an internationally recognized financial research organization, "investors should be alert to the seasonality in gold prices." The study covered the 13-year period from 1982 through 19994 -- basically the major portion of the long bear market, which began in January 1980 when gold futures reached $850 per ounce.

The study results demonstrate bullion prices usually begin the year with first quarter weakness - which is worst in March. This is followed by increased strength in the price to August, when gold begins its second weakest month. Subsequently, the gold price trend strengthens to yearend.

The report asserts there may be identifiable reasons for the regularity of the gold cycle. March celebrates the end of the Chinese New Years festivities, the end of the Indian marriage season, and commencement of the Islamic holidays. August weakness is attributed to traditional summer vacation time in Europe. Similarly, the 11 weeks ( three months ) prior to Christmas account for 40% of jewelry sales, meaning good levels of fabrication demand are experienced in September and October, allowing prices to strengthen. And price strength at yearend is also typically "window dressing," since most producers and gold mutual funds use yearend prices for published statement purposes ( Annual Reports to the public ) - and therefore have a vested interest in higher prices, causing prices to be bid up.

Gentlemen, needless to mention the year's weakest month for GOLD just ended ( March ) - albeit bullion prices have ALREADY BEGUN TO RISE. Subsequently, based upon gold's 13-year seasonality study, we should be enjoying higher bullion prices for the next four months. OH, and an added gold price booster will be the announcement by the EMU in May as to amount of gold backing ear-marked for the new Euro. Expert consensus estimates the gold backing will be between 15% to 30% -- with most educated bets on the latter. For the Euro to see the light of day as a weak currency would ensure its STILLBIRTH. Frankly, I credit Europe's financial powers to be with more common-sense. Noteworthy to remember is the fact that Italy's currency is already 30% gold backed, France's currency is 50% gold supported, and if I'm not mistaken the ultra-conservative Swiss Franc 100%. All logic forces one to conclude the Euro will have a very strong gold backing.

CONSEQUENTY, gold mining stocks should indeed appreciate - perhaps even substantially.

History demonstrates that succeeding bull markets always take out its past highs. This one will be no exception. Consequently, when the looming gold bull market progresses to that stage, we will see each of the above three securities again reach their March 1997 highs. Following are the expected per cent appreciation of these securities. You may verify my figures by going to the websites listed below - just set default parameters for "3-years/weekly and Stochastics for an 8 period, and a Simple Moving Average of 40:

FSAGX will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: ....80%

DROOY will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: .270%

RANGY will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: ..480%

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Thu Apr 16 1998 15:22 - ID#347196)
Silverbaron Re your 14:24
Tried the URL, Got lots of color and a Clinton arrow pointing DOWN ( I can dig it!! ) but the other stuff di'nt make sense. Is it my browser ( IE4 ) ?? TIA Mtn Bear

(Thu Apr 16 1998 15:22 - ID#426220)
KITKAT, try to type golden-eagle

REF: "kitkat ( @vronsky ) : Would it not be more efficient for YOU to remove the "en" in the URL when you post the message?

Try it yourself kitkat, and see what happens.

Spud Master
(Thu Apr 16 1998 15:24 - ID#273112)
US Federal Deficit continues to skyrocket! $138 billion....
Present : 04/15/1998 $5,551,285,055,049.62
Start Fiscal '98: 09/30/1997 $5,413,146,011,397.34


check it out, and the next time Clinton & crew flap their diseased gums about the "Budget Surplus", shout LIARS!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 15:25 - ID#243235)
thanks much for the info. and thanks for the golden eagle site as well.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 15:32 - ID#340459)
Dow is in 4 digits and is in 3 digit loss now.
Go Yahoo Go...

(Thu Apr 16 1998 15:37 - ID#340459)
Curbs may slow the law of Gravity, but Gravity prevails
Inspite of full day of curbs, DOW now down 115 points.
By the Way, Goldman Sachs downgraded Cendant to "market perform"
Heh heh hey. This Baby lost 15 Billion dollars today. With Loss of $1.5 Billion to Fidelity and Putnam alone....

(Thu Apr 16 1998 15:40 - ID#345176)
@ Gianni Dioro - remembering the past...

In 1972 inflation in the US was below 4% ( gov. number ) but a geat concern for the government. Most if not all government economists were waving red flags that we should do something to combat this big 3.5% inflation.

Today, how things have changed!
A 3.5% inflation is not only normal,
... but also good for the economy !!!

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Apr 16 1998 15:48 - ID#384350)
@all, Frosty the Snowman
I know some people here linked the Wizard of Oz to the Gold Silver debates of 100 years ago, but what about Frosty the Snowman?

I remember Burl Ives singing something about Silver and Gold. Does anyone remember the words or what he was referring to? Was it some mythical place where people used Silver and Gold as currency? If so, where is it? I'd like to go there.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 15:50 - ID#217268)
Next FOMC Meeting
Does anyone know when the next FOMC is scheduled ?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 15:53 - ID#31868)
Frosty link

(Thu Apr 16 1998 15:55 - ID#289357)
The previous chart was just the short-term outlook.

Their home page is at

long term Toronto PM Index chart

short term Toronto PM Index chart

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Apr 16 1998 15:56 - ID#384350)
FOMC next fed meeting May 19

(Thu Apr 16 1998 15:56 - ID#340459)
If Yahoo, Infoseek and Xcite fail, there is nothing to recover. Atleast in Mining Stocks there is
always Mines and Land titles that can be sold off when they stop performing..Off to my Workout.

Best of Luck to all tomorrow and in future..

Aragorn III
(Thu Apr 16 1998 15:57 - ID#212323)
Allen(USA)...your post at 14:06
Enjoyed your post. Occasionally I also offer up food for thought for Kitco's many lurkers. This sort of effort is necessary to show gold in it's proper context. It is far to easy for this group to spin off on tangents of conspiracies, guns, communism, and others whether related to gold or not. The starting point is to show the typical investor/hard-worker how natural it is to restore sense in their monetary existence. Truth comes home to the mind so naturally, that upon hearing it for the first time it is as though recalling a distant memory. We need to stimulate those millions of "memories".

Several weeks ago I posted two lengthy "lectures" on the national debt, and fiat currency and interest vs. gold. They were posted on a friday afternoon about 18:00. Perhaps someone could find and repost the one on INTEREST. It would be a good corollary to this post of yours.

I do take exception to one of your comments, though..."When I hold that beautiful, worthless bank note from 1860 in my hands
next to a new US$ bill I see things which have no permanent value." I would say that the banknote remains superior, because it was at least a PROMISE to PAY something even though it was broken. The new US$ is not even a promise, except maybe a guarantee of diminishing value and ever-growing debt ( as explained in the post I referred to ) .

(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:00 - ID#31868)
Gianni Dioro - Try this one, the Kitcoettes will sing background. and a 1 anda 2
Silver And Gold

Johnny Marks

Silver and gold, silver and gold
Ev'ryone wishes for silver and gold
How do you measure it's worth?
Just by the pleasure it gives here on earth

Silver and gold, silver and gold
Mean so much more when I see
Silver and gold decorations
On ev'ry Christmas tree

(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:08 - ID#288369)
Hey! uh huh GO GOLDBUGS!

Aragorn III
(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:10 - ID#212323)
I have the power...
V r o n s k y , t o r o u t e p e o p l e t o g o l d - e a g l e , s e t u p a g o l d e n l i n k !

(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:14 - ID#266105)
@you know you're a...

You know the computer belongs to a Redneck if . . .

1. The mouse is referred to as a "critter."
2. The keyboard is camouflaged.
3. There is a Skoal can in the CD-ROM drive.
4. There is a gun rack mounted on the CPU.
5. The password is "bubba."
6. The numeric keypad only goes up to six.
7. Outgoing faxes have beer stains on them.
8. The printer goes really slow since Bubba don't read too fast.
9. The extra RAM slots have Dodge truck parts installed in them.
10. The menus all have Budweiser, Black Label, and Old Milwaukee
11. Jeff Foxworthy *.wavs.
12. The monitor is up on blocks.
13. Seven blue tick hounds under the desk.
14. Deer jerky in the desk drawer.
15. The screen saver consists of pictures of Ned Beatty with
dueling banjos playing in the background.
16. The six front keys have rotted out.
17. John Deer Pocket Protectors.


On the bright side, Lihry ADRS haven't lost value in the
sell-off this week. Then again, they haven't traded this week.

On the dim side, Cabeza de Queso.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:16 - ID#424345)
Net Tulips Link
Interesting link which essentially lays out a position justifying the mainia in the net stocks in particular and the Dow in general.

Yes Toto it really IS different this time!! ( trust me Al says so... )

(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:25 - ID#266105)

Drooy, hgmcy down slightly. Rangy down -4% ( again ) .

Fidelity gold funds up a touch.

The Hermit
(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:26 - ID#369247)
@ Allen(USA) - your 14:06
An excellent post. The system is indeed "anchorless, standardless, and fraudulant". Not much gold to cover all that debt, is there?

Thank you for your insight!

The Hermit

(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:27 - ID#288369)
good man. BBL

(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:28 - ID#36156)
All - Naval Intelligence for a slow Kitco day...
This is an ACTUAL radio conversation of a US naval ship with Canadian
authorities off the coast of Newfoundland in October, 1995.
Radio conversation released by the Chief of naval Operations 10-10-95.

Americans: Please divert your course 15 degrees the North to avoid a

Canadians: Recommend you divert YOUR course 15 degrees to the South to
avoid a collision.

Americans: This is the Captain of a US Navy ship. I say again, divert
YOUR course.

Canadians: No, I say again, you divert YOUR course.


Canadians: This is a lighthouse. Your call.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:30 - ID#31868)
Hilarious!!! gulp, a toast to ya!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:36 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.48

(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:37 - ID#31868)
Microsoft Details Software With Year 2000 Problems
REDMOND, WASHINGTON, 1998 APR 15 ( Newsbytes ) -- By Martyn Williams, Newsbytes. Microsoft Corporation [NASDAQ:MSFT] has announced details of Year 2000 compliance tests it has carried out on its own software. The company says there are some problems with some of its most popular products, including versions of Windows 95, MS-DOS, Office, Word, PowerPoint, Visual Basic and Internet Explorer.

The information was announced as the company launched its new Year 2000 Web site, at .

It said minor problems were found in: Fox Pro 2.6; Internet Explorer ( 32 bit ) 3.0, 3.01, 3.02, 4.0, 4.01; MS-DOS 6.22; Office 4.x Standard; Office 95 Professional and Standard; Outlook Express ( Mac ) 4.0; PowerPoint 4.0; SQL Server 6.5 Enterprise, Small Business Server; Visual Basic 5.0, 4.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0; Visual C++ Professional, Learning Edition 5.0; Visual Source Safe 5.0; Visual Studio Enterprise 5.0; Windows 95 4.00.950; Windows for Workgroups 3.11; Windows NT Server, Standard / Enterprise 4.0; Windows NT Workstation 4.0; Word 95 7.0; and Word 6.0.

In the case of Windows 95, the core operating system would not be affected but some "minor" functions, such as the file finder function would not be able to correctly sort files by date.

Microsoft said non-compliant software was Access 2.0 and Word for MS-DOS 5.0. Word will become useless after 2000 as it will not be able to save files.

In testing its software, Microsoft looked at five main criteria. To be certified as Year 2000 complaint, the software must be capable of storing and calculating dates in four-digit format, converting user-entered two digit dates correctly to four digits, calculating leap years correctly, not using special values for dates with its operational range, and functioning through until 2035.

Reported By Newsbytes News Network:

(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:38 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .278

(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:39 - ID#317193)
I concur-great laugh! Brewski to you. Tom

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:40 - ID#384350)
@tolerant1 Burl Ives
Great stuff and the words are just as true today. It seems people could sing about Silver and Gold without being materialistic then. Today people fight for the scraps that the money lenders have so kindly thrown our way. BTW, I found the song was from rudolph the rednosed reindeer. He was a lot like us goldbugs. Derided because we are different, but our nose knows the way.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:40 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 49.34

(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:43 - ID#218388)
Vronsky's link - a test

(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:46 - ID#218388)
Apologies Vronsky but why?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:52 - ID#320376)
Lengthy discourse
Yes, gold has been a bear since 1980, going down worst-case from its inflation-adjusted all-time high by a factor of five or six, perhaps, over nearly twenty years. Compare that, mes amis, to how fast paper can go down: by a factor of 20 in a year, easily. So, the downside to paper is much greater.

Once confidence in gold slips, the value of gold slips. Once confidence in paper slips, the value plummets. As has been noted here today, today's currencies are not even a promise. They are a token of nothing.

The coming trauma - Y2K, geological / meteoroligical / political - have the potential to unleash a wave of hyperinflation that could be terrifying. I'll tell you something - there will be essentially no winners. "When" is the question, "whether" really is not; history teaches us that.

I predict that a million dollars a year will not be a huge salary in 2020.

I am betting on inflation by taking out a fixed-rate loan at 6.5% payable over thirty years secured by a home ( sometimes called a mortgage ) .

(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:58 - ID#31868)
Gianni Dioro - Don't forget one of the world's favorites,
Silver Bells...I hope to hear them before next Decmeber.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 16:59 - ID#7568)

In addition to the 10 million ounces sold in wee hours, the same fund pitched perhaps another 10 million into the ring during the Comex session. The buyers were the usual suspects.

It is quite remarkable to note that one fund has now sold on the order of 70 or 80 million ounces of silver in the last 4 weeks, and the price is now higher that when they began. What is even more astounding is that it is not unlikely that they will sell yet another 20 million tonight and tomorrow.

Part of me hopes that they sell another 20 million and establish a nice large short position which when taken out on the upside will provide some serious fireworks. The other part of me is human, and doesn't like waking up early in the morning and finding my largest position getting pummeled.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 17:04 - ID#227238)
Henry D: Outstanding. ...... We'll teach those belligerent Canadians a thing or two about navigation. ..... Have to wonder if that captain is still performing the same job.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 17:07 - ID#252391)
DA Original Silver War Post??
DA when was your original Silver War post

(Thu Apr 16 1998 17:15 - ID#347235)
@ EB

(Thu Apr 16 1998 17:15 - ID#201238)
another exciting day at comex
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for April 16
Gold 634,304 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 88,115,786 - 871,730 troy ounces
Copper 111,464 - 723 short tons

(Thu Apr 16 1998 17:17 - ID#347235)
@ EB
Sorry about double post ol'timers disease strikes again! RE: Can o wupass, a mans gotta do, what a mans gotta do, wasn't really needed at te time only 4 Marines that time!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 17:17 - ID#194311)
Huge Jewish Gold Claim vs UBS....any comments Andy Smith?
American claims 500 billion dollars from Swiss Bank

GENEVA, April 15 ( AFP ) - Carey Portman, a US businessman, has
written to President Bill Clinton and his Swiss conterpart Flavio
Cotti alleging that a major Swiss bank, UBS, had illegally
confiscated 500 billion dollars of assets.
Portman, chairman of Commerce International Incorporated of
Illinois, made his claim in letters last month on behalf of four
persons, accusing Union de Banques Suisses ( UBS ) of having
confiscated assets.
The businessmen wrote to the two heads of state in support of
his claim. He has made similar charges against the British bank
Barclays for 200 billion dollars, and against another Swiss bank,
Credit Suisse.
The claim states that UBS allegedly failed to pay gold
certificates to its clients. But a UBS spokeswoman denied that UBS
had ever issued gold certificates, stating: "It is a story without
Portman has also asked Daniel Zuberbuehler, head of the Swiss
banks commission, to prevent a planned merger between UBS and
another Swiss bank, Societe de Banque Suisse ( SBS ) until his
complaints have been cleared up.
The merger requires clearance by several authorities before
going into effect.
In his letter, a copy of which was obtained by AFP, the
plaintiff says he has proofs that UBS confiscated assets deposited
by clients.
The bank spokeswoman said UBS did not have the text of the claim
lodged in the United States but she said she was astonished at the
tenor of the letter which, she said, contained major errors.
In his letter the plaintiff said Swiss banks had plotted to
acquire major assets of clients and victims of the Holocaust.
Switzerland's three biggest banks are being sued in US courts by
thousands of Holocaust survivors seeking billions of dollars in
compensation over Nazi-era assets lying dormant on their books.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 17:21 - ID#7568)

Either this morning, or about a year ago, depending on how the battle lines are drawn.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 17:27 - ID#57232)
Naval Intelligence -- Lighthouse
HenryD: I have a question for you. Just what was the heading of that lighthouse, and how fast was it going? I gather the collision was somehow averted without the lighthouse changing course, as I think we would have heard about a US Naval task force having a close encounter of the third kind with a lighthouse. Just how did they miss all that land behind the lighthouse?

I have a true Mainer ( Maine, USA ) story for you. Turns out that a large Japanese freighter ran aground during a winter storm near Searsport. I think it was called the Tojo Maru ( name may not be exactly correct ) . Saw a life prserver from the Ship in a Searsport restaurant. Seagoing tugs from Halifax were either too small to pull it off, or were unavailable . The only offer was for salvage, which the Japanese did not want. So -- the Japanese owners were desperately discussing their problems in a that same little restaurant in Searsport, and some of the ( underemployed ) local Mainers overheard them, and offered to refloat the ship for almost nothing. The Japanese were very surprised, but decided that considering the situation they had nothing to lose.

So the mainers got 4 huge bulldozers, moved them out in barges near the ship during low tide, attached hawsers, and refloated the ship into deep water, simply by pulling the hawsers, moving back, reattaching them and pulling again. They may have had to stop several times when the tide came back in. Incidentally this is not far from Ted and The Bay of Fundy, so tides considerably greater there than elswhere.

I wish I were there to see the ingenious, creative Mainers refloat that ship. I doubt they would ever have had a confrontational conversation with a lighthouse on the coast of Maine unless they were pie-eyed! Makes you think twice about what kinds of leaders we must have in the US Navy these days.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 17:33 - ID#252391)
Until I get the time to look up your orignial post I have a question .If the seling of millions of oz has been in the last four weeks a good part of that sale would be above today's prices. What is the source of your info

(Thu Apr 16 1998 17:36 - ID#194311)
Let's see...
that's 700 billion dollars payable in gold at $308 per ounce...makes

2.27 billion ounces of much does the piggy UBS bank have?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 17:37 - ID#23782)
Heney D 16:28
Stories like yours make it a worthwhile.

Bully Beef
(Thu Apr 16 1998 17:37 - ID#259261)
My gut feeling is ...
Gold will have a tremendous day tommorrow.

Gold Fevor
(Thu Apr 16 1998 17:50 - ID#432137)
VRONSKY-Your book "Im not so sure" not found

Thank-you for the information however, having trouble finding on the Internet

Gold Fevor
(Thu Apr 16 1998 17:55 - ID#432137)
CARL- Great post- thank you

Carl your close to right- on. Thanks.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 17:55 - ID#26793)
Bundesbank worried about excessive Japanese liquidity

(Thu Apr 16 1998 17:55 - ID#401460)
Date: Thu Apr 16 1998 16:43
kitkat ( Vronsky's link - a test ) ID#218388:


(Thu Apr 16 1998 18:00 - ID#7568)

About 4 weeks ago, we had two days where some 40 to 50 million ounces of silver changed hands. The transactions occured between 610 and 570. Last night and today, approximately 20 million ounces was sold between 630 and 605. We closed today 628 - 631 in the spot.

My info comes from people who are tied into the dealing network. When there is big selling or buying the players are identified generally because they do most of their business through the same brokers. Its a very small world and after the fact the word generally gets around.

I certainly don't claim to have the open position reports of all the major funds on my desk each morning. I do pay attention to people who are in the midst of it all. It is this info that I share.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 18:01 - ID#26793)
Coeur d'Alene news

(Thu Apr 16 1998 18:04 - ID#26793)
Bema Gold news

(Thu Apr 16 1998 18:10 - ID#26793)
Bribery of bank regulators may be responsible for Korean bank crisis

(Thu Apr 16 1998 18:13 - ID#284246)
Vrosky's link
Gold Fevor and others,

To find above, go to WWW.golden-eagle.COM. On the first page you'll see the title "I'm not so sure". Just click on it and away you go.

You might want to save the URL because this is another great site.

Happy hunting,


(Thu Apr 16 1998 18:14 - ID#284246)
test only

(Thu Apr 16 1998 18:16 - ID#284246)
test only


(Thu Apr 16 1998 18:17 - ID#57232)
100 million ounces of Silver sold in the last 4 weeks?
D.A.: Your silver wars story is amazing! Now wonder silver has been weak over the last few weeks or so. If I were Warren Buffett, I would be standing in the aisles, waiting for the right moment to buy 50 million ounces or so at a below $6.00 price. Hard to believe that the shorts are that determined, but perhaps they want to go long as soon as they get below $6.00. What I don't understand is that these guys are big guys. How can they quickly buy enough at the bottom to make a later profit when they go long? My guess is that the current shorts will lose on the deal, because they can't keep silver down long enough. Wish I had some more cash.

It is very clear from your stories that silver is going up for some time -- probably well over $10.00 before the dust settles. This will push up gold, too.

Any idea why there is an 'oil glut' but energy/energy services stocks just won't go down? I thought we would see the demise of an oil producer or two before the energy equities started back up again.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 18:19 - ID#284246)
vronsky's link

Re above:

This posting facility keeps putting "EN" on the end of G O L D.

Above link is W W W . G O L D - E A G L E . C O M without the spaces.

Happy hunting


(Thu Apr 16 1998 18:22 - ID#269409)
@ StudioR
Thank you Studio, but the 14:36 "Liberty_A" is not me. A sympathizer perhaps? My monikers are this one, and "Liberty" ( my home account ) . Interesting activity today.... ( shhhh, don't tell anyone I was here... )

(Thu Apr 16 1998 18:22 - ID#410114)
gold stocks v. gold funds
I think that a gold share investor would do better buying gold mutual funds than individual shares.

Heres why.

If you take a look at any gold fund prospectus you will see various stocks listed along with share purchase warrants for the these gold stocks. These warrants were received when the fund participated in private placements. These placements were done at much higher prices than exist today. The warrants are therefor under water and worthless.

If gold rises, the stocks in the fund will rise and a fund owner also has the possibility of the warrants value going from zero to ?. If the warrants get a value, the funds NAV will take a larger jump than if only shares had been owned.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 18:25 - ID#411149)
Some updated info on DD. New information as per earnings had raised
the projected share returns as follows acording to GNL- $100,000
invested @ $2.38 per share should yield $2.93million @ $500 gold,
that is up a million form last estimates. The new estimate
includes the now completed infrastructure to reduce costs to
$285/oz by 2000. BOE NatWest one of the most respected brokers in SA has issued a BUY for DD.

Also this article maybe of interest.

Tally Ho

AD /

THE '97

Business Day
Business Times
TML New Media

April 17, 1998


Price rise just in the nick of time

Watch unhedged and marginals

The shift in the gold price above US$300/oz, bringing it back
to about R50 000/kg, is a step in the right direction from
which SA's marginal mines will benefit the most. If the price
holds, the unhedged mines will also win out.

Even so, the mines are far from out of trouble. The March
quarter results due out over the next few weeks need to show
progress in the war on working costs.

The recovery in the gold price from $280/oz ( R46 000/kg )
came too late too have any impact on the March quarter, but
the benefits should come through in the current quarter - if the
price holds.

Analysts expect further improvements in the cost numbers for
the March quarter, leaving aside the effect of extraordinary
items such as retrenchment payouts.

They caution that revenue gains from a combination of lower
costs and higher revenues will be split between payouts to
shareholders and the need to catch up on essential capital
expenditure, which was shelved while the mines were in
survival mode.

While the new International Accounting Standards system
focuses particularly on the current operating cash cost of
production, reality is the mines have to spend extra on capital
expenditure to ensure their medium-term survival.

At current levels just under R50 000/kg the gold price
compares with an average spot level of R48 019/kg for the
December quarter and R48 181/kg for the September quarter.

The present gold price is still 9,5% down on the R55 267/kg
average for the September 1996 quarter, and approximates the
level of the March 1996 quarter ( R48 483/kg ) .

The former Gold Fields of South Africa ( GFSA ) mines, which
have never sold gold forward, should get the full benefit from
the gold price recovery. This quarter they will report for the
first time as part of Gold Fields Limited - the new entity
created by the merger of GFSA and Gengold.

Mines such as the Anglogold producers and Gengold's Beatrix,
which have sold gold forward heavily, are already earning
prices well above the going spot rates, meaning the recovery
so far is not that important to them.

The overall average cost reported by GFSA for the December
quarter of R43 869/kg was bad enough, but that glossed over
some horrendous individual performances.

Kloof's Libanon division reported a cost of R57 068/kg; R60
289/kg. Both were put on notice of possible closure during the
March quarter, barring sharp improvement, but it seems their
period of grace has been extended to the end of the June

Tom Dale, chief operating officer for Gold Fields Limited,
says that "previously a lot of unprofitable material was being
mined and our short-term approach is to reduce this by
implementing proper pay limits. We have already seen some
benefit from this in the March quarter.

"In the medium term we are looking to boost productivity
through flattening the management structure on the mines and
by investing heavily in the education and training of the

The mines that should benefit the most from the rising gold
price include marginals such as Durban Deep and Harmony
and new producers like Kalahari Goldridge ( Kalgold ) .

Kalgold has been fighting to remain cash positive on its
operations as it completes the construction of its
carbon-in-leach plant, which will secure its long-term future.

Kalgold just broke even at the operating level in the December
quarter with cash costs of R46 150/kg against revenue of R47

The mine does not hedge, meaning the extra R3 000/kg
revenue goes straight onto its bottom-line.

Durban Deep in the December quarter earned R255,1m
versus cash operating costs totalling R255,7m. That was
thanks to its dump retreatment and open cast operations - the
underground side of the business is losing money hand over
fist. Underground cash operating cost was R57 107/kg against
revenues of R50 216/kg achieved through forward sales.

Harmony should also benefit from the higher gold price,
following a restructuring that returned the company to
operating profitability during the December quarter. Its Free
State operations dropped working costs to R45 911 ( R52
375/kg ) .

Last week's announcement that Harmony is buying the Bisset
gold mine in Canada, as well as four shafts from Anglogold's
Freegold mine, underlined management's determination to

MD Bernard Swanepoel says Bisset will produce about 60
000 oz of gold annually, which is equivalent to another shaft
for Harmony. He says costs of production will be cheaper
than adding new capacity in SA.

Bisset's former owners had spent R300m on redeveloping the
mine before it went into receivership in December. Swanepoel
stresses Harmony's sole downside is the R50m purchase
price. Working capital of about R40m is being arranged
through debt that is secured on the Bisset assets and is
nonrecourse to Harmony.

The one worry voiced by analysts is whether Harmony can
manage this operation effectively from such a distance, given
that only two executives are moving across to Canada.
Management says it won't be a problem.

Swanepoel says that Harmony is still working out its reserve
and pay limit calculations on a gold price of R47 000/kg.

At the other end of the scale Anglogold sits safely on top of its
strategic hedge position, which generated average revenues for
the group of R57 677/kg ( R53 123/kg ) in the December
quarter, during which it also lowered its total costs to R43
704/kg ( R44 592/kg ) .

The combination of excellent operating performances and
attractive hedges in place have made Anglogold - formerly
Vaal Reefs - the pick for those investors looking for a quality
gold operation.

But, should the gold price really get moving, shares such as
Randfontein, Harmony, Durban Deep and Kalgold should
initially outperform Anglogold and Gold Fields simply because
of their higher gearing.

By: Brendan Ryan.

| Top of page |

(Thu Apr 16 1998 18:29 - ID#153102)
The Swiss today released $540 million in Swiss bank accounts belonging to the estate of Ferdinand Marcos to the Phillipine government.

The ruling concluded it was against Swiss interests "to serve as a safe haven" for flight capital or criminal proceeds.

Political refugees and the accused are on notice: deposits no longer secure, perhaps not even welcome. Recently it was revealed that Swiss crypto products had been doctored for decades by American and German intelligence, compromising Swiss neutrality. The Iranians figured it out.

This no safe haven ruling appears to be a major policy change. I was wrong about there will always be a Switzerland. Senator Alphonse DaMato prevails. I wonder if the account Vince Foster managed or the one Leo Wanta was tending will be returned to its owner. What would happen to the con if the Swiss started dumping secrets about secret accounts in the street ?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 18:30 - ID#7568)

The fund in question has sold around 70 million ounces. There is some confusion as to whether the first 50 million ounce disgorgement was entirely a long liquidation or whether it included some fresh shorts. Last nights and todays sales were most certainly shorts.

It is quite likely that Mr B., or someone of his ilk, did just as you have counciled. If the dealing community was left to absorb the kind of volume that was pitched, we would be looking at 5.30 not 6.30.

Tonight should be an interesting one. A major league game of cat and mouse. The market will probably remain under pressure until such time as the fund seller shows his hand or doesn't. If nothing happens by the early London session, look for the long crowd to stage a counterattack.

With the market quite short, the results could be inspiring.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 18:35 - ID#288369)
Moniker Infingement. Thanks for the clarification. I don't think Ken Starr would have resigned his deanship at Pepperdine if he feels he will be made the fool after the Grand Jury completes its investigation. Just a guess. But it's finally starting to heat up. Portends well for metals.
Lots of silver we go again ( up ) .

(Thu Apr 16 1998 18:42 - ID#25171)
As everyone here must know, for the swiss national bank to sell part of its GOLD requires approval by a referendum. ( SWIZERLAND is one of the last real direct democracy ) .
The news of possible SWISS sales to fund a humanitarian intervention fund sent GOLD plummeting last year.
What do you think will be the outcome of this referendum to be held in 1999 with all this banks being sued and some powerful groups trying to undermine SWISS sovereignty?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 18:45 - ID#330175)
Cape Breton weather today.....................................* go gold*
As 'The Scooter" would say---------"holy cow"~~~~~~

(Thu Apr 16 1998 18:45 - ID#256326)
Mike Sheller
Very nice post late last night. It would be much easier to keep up with the great posts if Bart would re-institute the search function of yore. If one is not tuned in here all the time it is pretty hard duty to run through a day to a week of chats to find the nuggets.

Otherwise.......... a case can still be made that GCM8 is in a bullish position having just completed wavelet 1 and possibly all or part of 2 of larger wave three whose corrresponding wave one began in January. Getting above and staying above the 200 day ma at ~314.50 would convince.

There was an important time segment tie from 6/21/82 to today which Aurator can illuminate with his Lucas possum hunting lights. Although one needs to allow a window/orb on these things, the fact that gold firmed a smidgen lends a little confidence to this being a low of some importance. The first hour Comex low did constitute a 36% retracment of the wavelet 1 run from March 18 to April 6, and that would be "adequate" for a wave 2 of larger wave three.

I posted some targets the other day, but one possible based on wavelet 1 would be to 388. Naturally this is a potential target only and I reserve the right to be wrong. If anything it just shows what gold must do to be thought bullish for the intermediate term. I am also well aware of good buddy APH's views and have learned to resepect them mightily.

Last thought/question. Someone asked about the NYSE chart gold significator the other night and some current or about to be aspect. If you posted it I couldn't find it. Let me know if you did or have any thoughts thereon.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 18:47 - ID#411149)
Rob- on the other hand, prior to 1993 I ordered a prospectus for
Lexington S. Investments. Their TOP holding was Western Areas,
I bought W. Areas and during the 1994 run up, I can't remenber
exactly but it was UP in the order of 6 to 10 times what I paid.
That year Lexington was the TOP fund UP 297%. For the risk of
the market, NOT JUST THE GOLD MARKET, but the market RISK
in general I prefer to make the MOST for my money.

Tally Ho

(Thu Apr 16 1998 18:53 - ID#410114)
RAY funds v. Stocks
I agree. But in a battle between the average gold stock v. the average gold fund I think the funds will win.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 19:02 - ID#34857)
JTF - Military Intelligence: Agree... Shoot, Aim, Ready! ...[sigh]...

(Thu Apr 16 1998 19:03 - ID#317193)
LGB-come on speak your thoughts
I enjoy your comments regarding PM's. Why not posts these thoughts and limit any posts that might be termed as "cat fights". A good mind is a terrible thing to waste-away from Kitco. Tom

John B__A
(Thu Apr 16 1998 19:15 - ID#211105)
Excellent Historical Insight
Vronsky's article on the behaviour of gold stocks during the 1919, 1973-74 and the October 87 bear markets is very valuable. the summary ( which makes sense ) is a probability that gold stocks will appreciate if the current market turns bearish.

The title is "I'M NOT SO SURE..." and may be found at:

It will be necessary to to DELETE the "en" in the word "golden." Then paste together and then post to the Internet finder.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 19:19 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Mozel -- Re: the Swiss mess; We ARE all ONE big happy family! No one is left out of the 'dealings'. However, they will only go after those not of their own 'ilk'.

D.A. -- I think the 6.29 number on the May silver might be the 'magic' number. 'course', considering how silver can behave so nasty against trend lines and such, use it as more as a base line vs. something that must simply be exceeded.

EB -- Looks like the grains just might have some 'gold' to them.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 19:20 - ID#256326)
Mike Sheller addendum
One striking thing about the Fibonacci structure of the pricing up from January basis the June contract is the fact that $388 is a potential target based both upon the wave one starting in Janaury AND from the smaller degree wave 1 starting on March 18! This comes partly from the fact that the two legs are of approximately equal length which could also be used as ammunition for an orderly ABC contra-trend rally and nothing more. But as I said, a rally above the 200 dma would convince of the bull case.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 19:21 - ID#31868)
The more I think about the more ridiculous (spelling for sam) it is.
I refer to the fact that everyone refers to the Judge in the Paula Jones vs the Coward Erect as impartial/independant. Ah ya, did they not have a working knowledge of each other, the Coward Erect and the Judge, long before the trial.

How could any thinking individual condone this from a purely legal stance.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 19:22 - ID#253246)
Rob & Ray Go for the stocks

In august of 1994 I bought 500 shares of barrick FOR $22 ( 11K ) . In
february of 1996 I purchased 10K worth o the BGEIX gold fund. I'm almost even with the abx. The BGEIX gold fund is still down 45%.
gold funds not for me

(Thu Apr 16 1998 19:28 - ID#210114)
Who is Nikkei Dow??

(Thu Apr 16 1998 19:30 - ID#210114)
Climbing that Wall of Worry
Re-assuring to see gold at $US 307.80 this morning ( Oz time ) . The Wall of Worry is still yet to be scaled.

Hoping for a better week next week.

Live Long and Prosper.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Apr 16 1998 19:34 - ID#347447)
re $388 - from your lips to God's ears!

Otherwise - it is no secret that my gold significator in the NYSE chart is 5+ Taurus, which is the placement of NYSE Venus. Look back in history - every major gold bottom reflects a stress aspect to NYSE Venus. Even going back to the War of the Roses in the 1400's.
( how's that for long term buy n' hold? )

(Thu Apr 16 1998 19:37 - ID#227238)
Ray: Thanks for the great read on the SA's. I'm currently up to my knees in SA's and fixin' to wade in, at least, to the goanies. In '93, I had some triples. Now, I hope to cast off these training wheels and join you in some 10 baggers. It's way past time for revenge. It's time to make some serious bread.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 19:42 - ID#340302)
F* IS BACK...and he is about to leave the building again...
Driving the wife to the airport...but first, the major addendum to my previous report:

...actual gold trading volume was quite light today with selected XAU stocks experiencing increasing volume on strength. Again, both bullish signs...with the XAU acting as the leading indicator it has become...and with the gold market itself showing strength in the face of every conceivable negative imaginable...look out!

Light volume in the gold market itself indicates the arrival of the "I CAN'T QUITE BELIEVE WHAT I'M SEEING PHASE SO I'M GOING TO SIT THIS ONE OUT." For example, take note of the Kitco Barometer...many Kitco posters from the previous night were 100% CERTAIN that, with a much stronger U.S. buck and a collapsing NIKKEI, gold would drop significantly today. Wrong! So, the light volume simply represents a temporary hiatus in the psychological trend shift from gold bear to gold bull. My own sense is that, with about 24 hours to meditate upon the issue, gold buyers will be back in force soon. Independent of any psychological reaction created by today's positive gold action, there will be several fundamental developments over the next week which should prove to be extremely stimulating.



(Thu Apr 16 1998 19:46 - ID#256326)
Mike Sheller
Thanx. I'm dashing over to the book shelf to thumb madly through the ephemeris.........bbl.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 19:50 - ID#347235)
Most of us Veet Nam Vets are more familiar with "Dinky DOW" which means
Whacko, appropriate HUH!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 19:53 - ID#288369)
@And what time is it?
It's time for RJ to come home. Platinum all over the map, silver fixin' to make its big drive north? What's a Kitcoite to do?...Who ya' goin' call? HUH? R...J....

(Thu Apr 16 1998 19:54 - ID#32078)
gold funds

It's a lot easier sleeping with gold funds and not worrying about one stock plunging to new lows all by itself. Since February 1996 was a lousy time to buy gold funds and most gold stocks, I think it was probably a lousy time to buy ABX also. BGEIX owned all of the major gold stocks then and obviously has not recovered yet. No gold fund has. I don't think any gold stock has either.

Gold Fevor
(Thu Apr 16 1998 19:55 - ID#432137)
GOLD, EVERYBODY, read http:WWW.golden-eagle

Thank you Scarface, we found the correted address, everybody should read and know this page "I'm not so sure" it is located down the left side of the page. This is a good reference to American stock market crashes.
In the future keep your eye balls open.
By the way I have to use GOLD FEVOR because somebody had used
Gold Fever mispelled works are eye catchers sometimes.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 19:56 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Farfel -- I'm still kinda' lookin' for a gap that resides down there a bit further in gold to get filled. Hell, at least tested. Not saying it absolutely will, of course, but it should at least be expected. Either way, I'll be findin' myself aboard on a LONG haul, whenever that might transpire. Generally, I'd rather be a day early than a day late, though it 'can' be played both ways during any given day.

Just heard that tornadoes touched down in downtown Nashville and did a 'bit' of 'ripin'.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:02 - ID#288369)
The funnel cloud briefly touched down for about a half of a block and killed 1430 guitar pickers.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:04 - ID#426220)
Nikkei DOWN 100 POINTS

FIRST CRACK outta da box tonight the Nikkei is DOWN 100 POINTS - that's after a 450+ point plunge yesterday.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:05 - ID#173274)
@the scene
RJ -- What's up DOC? Don't stay away from here just for the 'likes' of some of us. For some reason, it takes all kinds to make the world go 'round, whether we like it or not. Don't let them become your detractors. I know I stupidly gave you a hell of a lot harder time in the past than any recently have. And yet, we got way beyond that.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:05 - ID#347447)
Retired Soldier
Dien Cay Dao - Dinky Dow. YESSSSS. Also Bien Hoa ! The citry of Bien Hoa hosted an insane asylum which kinda replicated New York's Bellevue Hospital - the quintessential nut house. I remember driving by the Asylum in Bien Hoa and having a Viet compatriot circle his forefinger over his temple as we passed and saying "Bien Hoa - Dien Cay Dao" ( Dinky Dow ) . Nowadays we VN Vet goldbugs can look at the premier stockmarket average and proclaim: Dinky DOW!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:05 - ID#348286)
@Well lekey here, the untouchable Microsoft has Y2K Problems - - - - - -
"Y2K Bugs Plague Microsoft"

(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:06 - ID#348286)
OH, almost forgot, 320 coming to a Gold store near you .............I

(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:07 - ID#26669)
themissinglink re last night's 23:14 post
That sounds like a pretty big piece of gold, so it will be hard to do more thant guesstimate the weight before casting it. Having never cast in gold I wouldn't know how exact you can get, but it would seem you'll have a double or even triple sprue to contend with on such a big flat piece. I have done some bronze and silver casting including some 3/4 ounce silver pieces but my largest silver casting to date hasn't been done yet; an Irish deer, counting sprues it's 20 grams of wax in a 4 inch crucible ( roughly 200 grams of silver ) . If it works I have Auroch to try which will run 25 grams of wax.

The sort of wealth preservation casting you talk about might lend itself to statuettes, cast using dry or oil sand techniques. Imagine a 100 ounce bust of Bill Clinton. No second thought make that Monica instead I'd think she'd make a very fine model. ;^ )

(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:10 - ID#269245)
Allen & ALL
In contradiction to your post, I do not agree that all the gold in the world is worth the entire world. I do not even agree with that statement if silver was included, or if platinum was included, or if copper was included, or lead, or uranium, etc... I think that an important point to remember is that gold, in the monetary sense, is a medium of exchange. That is what makes it valuable. It can be produced, but not easily. When gold is mined, the gold supply is increased and its relative value goes down ( assuming flat demand ) . If another medium of exchange is used, then demand decreases quite considerably - gold's value goes down. The only reason that gold has any value presently is becaause of its other uses - jewelry, industry, etc. The reason why a return to public use of gold currency is so important is because it creates a financially independent market place and forces government to practice responsible fiscal policy. It puts the power of trade in the hands of individuals instead of regulators. Gold is one of the primary ingredients to a functional democracy and a truely capitalist society. Whatever entity controls money supply essentially controls buying power. Most people here would agree that this power should be in the hands of the consumer. So, you see, we agree on many things; but I do not agree that gold is worth the entire world. The only thing that is worth the entire world is the entire world. - c

(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:10 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Studio.R -- What a concept! And I always thought tornadoes did seek-and-destoy missions on only trailer parks!

Mike Sheller
(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:11 - ID#347447)
LIBERTY, LGB, and Whatever
This marks the THIRD time ( but who's counting ) that LGB has Di Di Maow'ed from Kitco ( Viet Vets will pick up on that, I'm sure ) . And now...HE's BAAAACK. Hey, LGB, are you coming back all contrite and repentant ( AGAIN ) or can we expect the usual bullsh*t? Are you a man of your word or WHAT? Get some spine, fella, and either Di Di Maow or stay...but cool the histrionics.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:18 - ID#284255)
I think Oldman is calling for a downturn in equities running into May and then a new upleg on the Dow spiking into the Fall. Then we have a mother of a crash.
ANOTHER revisited
Great site to keep up to date on Y2K

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Y2K and Agriculture: Potential Effects and Consequences

This article is worth reading and thinking about.
There is a lot to be read between the lines.
Global famine and huge mortalities.
Will have huge effects on currencies, production and home prices.
Plus anything else you could think of.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

The market still looks to me to be making a major top.
Note the divergence between the Dow new highs and the S&P
lower high.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:19 - ID#349224)
Regarding comments on my 0831 post today etc.
Further to comments on my post of 08:31 today etc.

1. Yes the reasons for Nixon's demise went farther than just his Watergate coverup. I believe indeed that the US electorate will turn strongly against Clinton when the recession finally arrives. I believe that a lot of money has come into the US stock and bond market due to the problems in Asia ( including Japan ) ; the Asians view this as a flight to safety. Of course, how can moving your money into our inflated stock market be considered safe?

2. Why wouldn't you expect the US dollar to be strong at least for a while. After all, Britain has a new socialist government ( Tony Blair ) , the French have elected a socialist ( they're reducing their work week to boost employment ) , and wages are extremely high in Germany ( as well as Japan ) . How much longer will they be able to economically manufacture autos in Germany? If the unsophisticated investor does not want to invest in Asia or Europe, he/she comes to the USA.

3. Regarding Y2K, reportedly this may not wait until 1/1/2000 to start creating problems. Evidently some COBOL programs have been set up to handle a year date of "99" as an error condition. Also, some state budgets for FY 99/00 start early next year, and some of their computer programs may begin malfunctioning at that time.

4. Now that Ken Starr has said that he isn't anywhere near done, some Democrat politicians will be concerned that this Zippergate/Whitewatergate fiasco will not be substantially over well before November elections. There was a rumor that there might be an indictment next week??

5. Of course, the "right wing" doesn't want to impeach Clinton. They just want him badly damaged. With impeachment you simply get Al Gore, and then he becomes the incumbent in the next presidential election.

6. Has anyone heard anything about that young lady that was murdered at the Starbucks caf in DC? I heard something to the effect that she was a Whitehouse intern. Is this correct?

7. Regarding the Monica tapes, suppose Ken Starr is in possession of a few answering machine recordings of Clinton talking "dirty" to Monica. Wouldn't this be too much "in your face" for those Democrats ( and Rockefeller Republicans ) still in denial about Clinton?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:26 - ID#317193)
Mike Sheller-LGB
Somewhat more blunt in your thoughts than me. Tactfulness is preferred but sometimes is to be abandoned. Tom

(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:28 - ID#190411)
Thanks for the BD post on SA golds. Kalgold sound interesting too. Who knows where to get info on Kalahari Goldridge. No hedge- maybe a ten bagger.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:28 - ID#347447)
No, you have that wrong. It's a downturn into May, but only the first week. Then a rally to new highs, a sideways move for 2 weeks, a slight dip, and then an attempt to recover to the previous top. Then a triangular pattern broken on the downside by a three day dip, a return move to resistance, and a decline of about 6%. A rally from there, a brief consolidation, and another leg down to retrace at least 9%. A brief recovery of a day or two,. and then a jolt of about 10% before stabilization. The dipsters will convene and claim a "buying opportunity, but by late June there will be a blast to the downside of 15%. A rally back of 200 points, and then a further decline. I think that's what "oldman" meant to say.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:29 - ID#347447)
Some peoplre deserve tact, others bluntness. Let the shoe fit, ey?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:31 - ID#269245)
Yes, I read an article about the murder of a different intern. The URL was posted here, but I don't remember who posted it. - c

(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:32 - ID#286279)
You get another ***GOLD*** star today.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:34 - ID#252352)
Geomaque increase in gold substantial
Geomaque GEO-tse in todays news release

Small producer, but no debt, profitable and adds 922,000 oz to resources.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:34 - ID#411163)
Thanks for posting Anothers posts in one list. Did you know he was
back this morning? He said we would have much to talk about in the next few days. I can hardly wait

(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:37 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Sharefin -- Re: oleman. Personally, I Do think that the markets, at least judging by the S&P, will be down for a bit. 1100 on the June needs to get broken though. Still, I thought the 1126 area would be resistance, and it so far has, even though it made it up to the 1128 area. Below 1100, there are a number of targets that could be more-or-less easily reached. What it does thereafter though remains to be seen. Who knows what might 'wash' ashore. But I WILL otherwise take to heart anything oleman has to say on the markets. The oleman may be 'dissed' only at ones own risk!

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:37 - ID#384350)
The Buck is giving back some change
The dollar is weaker overnight as well

Mike Sheller
(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:41 - ID#347447)
From"the Astrological Investor" at you-know-what-Eagle, posted December 31 1997 -

"CAMBODIA - Shades of Vietnam War days, Cambodia will receive a Saturn conjunction to its Mercury and Sun from mid April through mid May. Folks with ties to this country may want to be especially vigilant in this time window. Happening in
the 4th House, this may portend domestic leadership upheaval and hard circumstances. Book your
chopper ride now."

It was reported that Pol Pot, Khmer Rouge scourge of Cambodia, died today of heart failure. The news has been nothing if not focused on Cambodia, lo this Mid April. Many Cambodians, now living in other countries, voiced mixed and powerful feelings on public radio today regarding this news. I rest my case.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:43 - ID#284255)
I love stargazing
Did you see this in the stars?

I find his SAR is too quick.
I guess that is what you get, when you get that good.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:51 - ID#384350)
I remember hearing about a young woman of around 25 who had previously been an intern at the whitehouse getting her brains blown out in a Georgetown fast food ( or coffee shop ) . No money was taken.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:55 - ID#347447)
Somebody warn the President!!!!
I have been puzzling since the turn of the year over numerous astrological clues that point to something significant coming out of Central or South America in April/May. Today Clinton is in Chile, giving a speech ( speach ) , etc. So I look in my chart collection and I see that Clinton's Sun is at 25 Leo, and Chile's Mars is at the same degree, in the 8th House, the HOUSE OF DEATH!!!

I had to go on line with this observation. I wish no one ill, but this is very portentious. Let's keep an eye on Bill.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 20:59 - ID#31868)
Mike Sheller - Thursday April 16, 8:34 pm Eastern Time
Brazil Motta's health worsens a little in hospital
SAO PAULO, April 16 ( Reuters ) - Brazil's Communications Minister Sergio Motta's health worsened a little on Thursday as he developed a high fever and had trouble breathing early this morning, officials said.

Sao Paulo's Albert Einstein Hospital said in a statement Motta continued to be treated in its ``semi-intensive care unit,'' where he remained under sedation and receiving oxygen through a respirator.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 21:00 - ID#286230)
Kalahari Goldridge
Earle: Here you go--before your taxes reach the global average::::

Crystal Ball
(Thu Apr 16 1998 21:13 - ID#287377)
Just to keep the record straight
Somebody here said the P/E on AOL is 600. It is really "only" 300.25!! AOL chart is truly awesome- went from $1 in 1993 to a high of around 90 this year.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 21:17 - ID#240170)
I am sure that I am speaking for most posters ( and lurkers ) on this chat that we would like R.J., LBG and Another to continue to post. Everything you all write is so edifying as you impart knowledge and insight that many of us lack. Arguing on who is right and who is wrong is totally irrelevant as there is empirical proof as to who is right and who is wrong - POG and the price of PM stocks. But you all give us different guidelines and a spectrum of ways to look and analyse PMs and thus help us make our decision.

Please, please come back and post.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 21:31 - ID#255190)
"will trade paper for gold" should be our motto, eh??

(Thu Apr 16 1998 21:32 - ID#255190)
Gianni@14:50 - Thx for the address!


(Thu Apr 16 1998 21:34 - ID#255190)
Aragon III @15:57

Yes, I'm not terribly original, as disclaimed at the beginning of the post. Hope some can hear what we iterate from time to time. It helps keep us from getting sucked into the general psychosis. Just telling the story is liberating.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 21:36 - ID#344206)
I like the way tomorrow looks for gold. Would not be surprized to see a little jump in spot. Eastern money looking for saftey. Getting closer to May. Some funds starting to spread out a little bit. Does not take much money to cause some excitement. Just amazing how they keep such an orderly market in Gold. If the physical yellow was bought instead of all the if come mines, there would not be enough to go around. Makes you wonder.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 21:36 - ID#255190)

Thank you. No there isn't much gold or silver in relationship to real things. Some whould argue that this proves the impracticality of PM's as money. I think it truly shows their worth!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 21:38 - ID#255190)
D.A. all over the place

Great posts and thank you for sharing. You are our PM's war correspodant@thefront.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 21:39 - ID#190411)
Thanks for the help

(Thu Apr 16 1998 21:47 - ID#411149)
Rob- If you got enough money to buy 3 stocks you can have your
own FUND. The first $7000 I had to invest I bought 3 SA golds
and a few years later it was worth $997,---,---. Now I plan on doin
a better JOB seein I know what I am doin and last time I WASSA only
guessin! You see I was raised in the FUNERAL HOME and have been
in PRIVATE BUSINESS in the USA for 30 years, AIN'T SCARED OF
NOTHIN!! Reward is directly proportional to aceptance of RISK.
sorry I am a "C" student, like BUDWISER and hever had TIME to lernt
to spell. Recomend a GOOD READ "The Millionair Next Door" gave a copy to
both my KIDS.

Tally Ho

(Thu Apr 16 1998 21:48 - ID#426220)

As much paper as the Bank of Japan is swallowing to sustain the deluge of sell orders, the inexorbly relentless decline painfully continues -
the Nikkei falls further.... much further:

(Thu Apr 16 1998 21:52 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

(Thu Apr 16 1998 21:52 - ID#426220)

...and the night is still young

(Thu Apr 16 1998 21:57 - ID#426220)

Is this a preview of what we will allsee in the Western markets in the near future: Nikkei in free fall down 250 points, and gold UP
13Yen/gram near day's high?????!!!!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 21:57 - ID#190411)
I am not-Earl the Famous of Kitco.- I am ERLE. Another, Erle: Not the one you were thinking of in your reply. Nevertheless thank again.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 21:58 - ID#255190)
Clone@20:10 re: 'the whole world'
Possibly a bit of hyperbole on my part. Gold is not so easily produced ( 2% per year added to above ground inventory ) whereas paper is emminently unfettered by such a constraint. The electronic medium of credit creation is literally unbounded by even a printing press. I think I'd rather use the gold myself. I'm sure we agree there.

My point about PM's representing 'the wealth of the whole world' was intended to help throw a little perspective on the completely undervalued 'price' we have in gold or silver today. Since The world would need to continue running at present volumns we need to understand what this would require in terms of revaluing gold MUCH higher than it is. It is a matter of 'fitting' one asset to the others. Most people can't get past the idea that gold or silver could conceivable be worth anything more than what the paper market has been setting for a price. This presumes a continuation of the present market as it is.

The assumption is a dangerous one since it will get totally mangled by Y2K effects. When the buttons no longer work then gold and silver bullion will be treated with a bit more respect. IMHO anyway. We shall see.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 21:58 - ID#400214)
sharefin -- Y2K and Agriculture

That was a post the whole planet should read. Thanks for your efforts to spread the word.

Here are a few more comments on the possible effect of Y2K on everyones life.

Besides farming another thing to worry about is the dairy industry. If the electricity or the computerized milking system goes down for 5 to 7 days -- you will not get milk from those cows for one year. If not milked they will quit giving milk, and they have to have a calf before they can give milk again.

Since breast feeding is out of style, I think we could be talking about a lot of starving babies.

Another seldom mentioned fact is that companies who manufacture chemicals are the most susceptible to problems in their automated factories. Medicines are chemicals. It could be a year or more before some medications are available. We could be talking about a lot of people who are in poor health dying from lack of medication.

Think about it.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:05 - ID#255190)
Crystal Ball

So what ou are saying is that AOL is still ony worth about $1 per share? Wow. People are actually buying this? Wow. A thrilling testiment to 'blue skies'.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:05 - ID#227238)
Selby: Your URL did not compute. I think it was prematurely truncated by the system. BTW, did that survey include property taxes? On a percentage basis that would be pretty severe in some cases. Property taxes on my home are about $7k per year here in Oregon. ...... Probably not an issue in Canada where everything is subsidized. Eh? ... : (

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:08 - ID#400214)
A little humor to make up for my last post
One night, a police officer was stalking out a particularly
rowdy bar for possible violations of the driving-under-the-influence
laws. At closing time, he saw a fellow stumble out of the bar, trip
on the curb, and try his keys on five different cars before he found
his. Then, he sat in the front seat fumbling around with his keys
for several minutes.

Everyone else left the bar and drove off.

Finally, he started his engine and began to pull away.

The police officer was waiting for him. He stopped the driver,
read him his rights and administered the Breathalyzer test.

The results showed a reading of 0.0. The puzzled officer
demanded to know how that could be.

The driver replied, "Tonight, I'm the designated decoy."

Are the CBs the designated decoy, in this game of gold?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:09 - ID#344206)
Another thing
I really enjoy alot of your comments from many different styles and mind sets. There are also many forces that are acting upon the continual movements of Gold. I think it to be absolutely necessary to correlate these diverse readings from our many intellects represented here, If one is to be an adequate player in this game of Titans. Do not squander your greatest resource, these willing minds, by insult, sophmoric teasing and other types of odd behaviors. I must admit that often times it appears to be good humored, even fun. However, if the expense is that exceptionally knowledgable and gifted posters leave, than the price is far too great and we all lose much more than we know. Let us use this post for thoughtful reflection and even as a flag for truce. All of you who have in some way been wounded and angered by others, I ask you, after you heal, to come back and offer your thoughts. I miss them and am quite sure that others miss them as well. In the future I look forward to engaging you in discourse that may well only be understood by a limited few. I assure you, I will add as much as I take.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:09 - ID#426220)

Tokyo Gold surge again skyward in the last five minutes - it is now
UP 20Yen/gram at the day's high or 1305Yen/gram.

... of course Nikkei relentlessly falls as I speak

Inevitably the BOJ must jettison more US T-Bonds to survive.
The FEd will NOT be able to hold the line on stable interest for much longer - and when the "dike" finally cracks, it will be the death knell for stocks and Wall Street's illusory act of levitating.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:15 - ID#344308)

this has created a reaction...GTBSMMFG...

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:16 - ID#255190)
Yes, its a bad deal brewing, buddy. I think about all the places where embedded controllers are placed: expensive processes, dangerous, need fast response to tune systems, remote, complexity taming, etc. All the places and things you can't do manually if you begged to. All pretty much out of sight and mind because it was engineered well enough to survive and function for years. Many of these processes ( such as in pharmacutical production ) are engineered and the processes themselves are hardly known by the current operators. They baby sit the consoles, but don't really know the minutea of the manufacturing process or the parameters needed to do it manually if they could.

We are headed for a head on collision without helmets or air bags. Major trauma to our entire 'systems'. Hope we can make it to the emergency room in time ( and the power is on ) to save us. If not, well it'll be a long night coming.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:18 - ID#411149)
Tally DAMN Ho vronsky you told them so!!!!!
Better get your A__Es on board or you gona miss the train,
correction ROCKETTT.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:18 - ID#255190)
See ya tomorrow

Go gold and silver !!! Rah! Rah! Rah!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:25 - ID#210235)
@Yo, Donald, stellar forecaster
Found some evidence in this weeks ( April 11 - 17 ) Economist that the wave of deflation youve been watching in your telescope is finally hitting. I am examining the Producer Price Index here, the first to be affected by changes in the wind.

The 15 industrialized nations which they follow experienced fairly benign inflation as a group, when viewing their year-over-year reports. 12 had low inflation, none as high as 2%. Of the 3 experiencing deflation, none was as low as -2%. These years are Jan to Jan or Feb to Feb, excepting Austria, which has current data. Here were looking at a very narrow band of change of rate here, nearly a flat plane.

But look at the first quarter 1998 over the last quarter 1997: Ten countries had deflation in their PPI, compared to 5 experiencing inflation! Three had -3% or more ( USA, Denmark, and Belgium ) . Two more had over -2% deflation, Netherlands and Switzerland. Of the countries still experiencing inflation, Australia stood alone at over +2%.

Only two countries of the 15 saw their rate of inflation increase in the quarter compared to the past year, Australia and Austria. Germanys inflation ground to a near halt at 0.1% and Italys inflation rate remained unchanged.

What have we got here? Nine of the 15 countries saw either a significant lessening of inflation or a cross-over ( 7 countries ) into deflationary territory in the first quarter. . The PPI is, of course a leading indicator to CPI. In the CPI we had 2 countries crossing into deflationary territory in the first quarter ( Japan at -2.6% and Netherlands ) , with no country reporting inflation over 2.2 percent ( Canada ) . No countrys CPI is inflating at a higher rate than Japan is deflating! We see both PPI and CPI with the biggest numbers in negative territory! This is a major sea change in the world economy. Bet A. G. and friends are poring over these numbers, too.

Could be time for some new ratios.

Crystal Ball
(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:31 - ID#287377)
@ Allen (USA)
$9 a share ( P/E of 30 ) is more in the neighborhood of the rest of the crazily overvalued stockmarket, but this one really takes the cake! When AOL faces the music, it's gonna be a Godzilla of a come-down. Also, boys and girls, don't get too excited about this 80 cent bounce in GCM8 today. We've got plenty more downside on the agenda. ( $400 by December my @$$ )

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:32 - ID#254159)
I'am surprised nobody questioned Another's indication that something will be announced in the next two days.

Date: Thu Apr 16 1998 07:33

Together, we can talk of this new gold market. In a day, or two, we will have much to
discuss. I look forward to this.

The Kitco Co., it offers more to the world than a business, "it provides a stage for minds to
meet"! This service is of much value to all, yes?

Thank You

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:35 - ID#339320) perfect harmony

About fell out of my chair tonight.
Sat dish went on the fritz tonight....and had to watch local ( Venezuelan ) news.
Top report was a crash in the forex....down 2.5% in 3 hours.
ALL the newscasters on ALL channels sung in perfect harmony, roughly translated as:

"due to low oil prices, the annual budget is a little off xxx billions of bolivars which caused the dollar to rise.......BUT THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THERE WAS A DEVALUATION".

You have to love it.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:40 - ID#153102)
Keynes is rolling over in his grave ( I hope they buried him alive. )
I guess "black holes" are a new phenomena in the monetary universe.
What were the M3 figures for the deflating countries for the same period I wonder ? Is pouring liquidity into a stock market the same as pouring it into a black hole ?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:43 - ID#256326)
i've gotta yen........
If the Japanese economy is sliding into recession as todo el mundo say, I can concede the Nikkei a few thousand points. But as their imports cease to exist while their exports dry up more slowly ( wanna bet against it? ) , how does their currecny tank?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:44 - ID#288260)
Isn't Cendent the tip of the iceberg? Don't these things
start to come out in the open at tops? How many companies
have been jigging the books to keep the stock up? If the market
does fall won't it be companies like Cendent that light the fuse?
Cendent down 16.00 today. Bad book keeping? The value of anything
is only a perception of what it is worth at any point in time. The
problem for us is the mutuals act like a big shock absorber on values. Years ago the volatility must have been much higher during the same

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:47 - ID#253153)
Deflation is accelerating--- Gold getting ready to SOAR
The dividend on the Dow Jones index was 1.52% on April 15. Never in the history of this index has the dividend yield been that low. How much higher can the Dow advance ? Have we seen the peak on April 15 ?
We don't really know yet but a decline below the Jan low's on the Dow Jones and the Transportation index will confirm the bear market.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:50 - ID#284255)
More Y2K & WHOOPS - read between the lines -
Thanks mate.
I wonder how many more things we will discover as we go along.
The milking of cows aspect is truly awesome.

Last night on TV I watched a story on gold mining in the Tanami Desert.
This is in the centre of OZ.
They showed the trucks ( worth $1.3M - tyres worth $10k ) loading ore into a road train ( the longest road train in the world ) capable of carrying 200t and described how this gold mine was very rich and producing @ 6.5g/t.
It was a continuous mining operation and highly mechanised.
It amazed me that this road train which carried 200t held only 1.3kg of gold.
They must have highly mechanised processes ( computerised ) to extract these oz's.
How reliant would this company be on computers and Y2K problems.
It makes me wonder how many gold mining companies will be Y2K survivors.
They only need part of their highly mechanised systems or infrastructure to break down before they would not be able to run.

This would probably apply to most companies but then we are not here on Kitco to invest in other companies.

The Y2K Files: Municipal Utilities Power Up to Deal With Millennium Bug

"We would expect utilities to be exploring the issue now, so they have systems in place at least several months prior to Jan. 1, 2000," Bodek said. He added that it's essential for utilities to adequately test their systems to ensure proper operation, continued services, revenue collection, and "very importantly," no disruption in debt service payments to bondholders.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:53 - ID#201238)
an ill wind is blowing now
All of this week and in particular today I have felt that a cold wind is blowing through the financial markets now. Perhaps I feel it so much because my life is so attuned to gold and what affects gold thus could affect me. I feel a chill, a chill of change. Many things are happening right now that we are not aware of, any will not be so until much later. Perhaps Mike Sheller could enlighten us. Believe me friends, it has almost nothing to do with five million dollars of gold added to eligible gold stocks on Comex the other day, it has everything to do with what lies ahead. I am a scientist. A geologist. I should not think about such things. But then again, geology is part science and part art as no one ( should I say noone ) can see through rock. Something is going on and as a scientist I can not explain it, as a human being, change is upon us.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:54 - ID#344308)

mike sheller--

what you see in the stars could easily come to pass...remember
the photos of his reaction in africa recently? if he had any
sense, he'd be holed-up looking over his shoulder, and having
billary checked with a metal detector when-ever she got close..

he has served his purpose...his mission fulfilled...the absolute
fractionation of what was left of a way of life. morals matter not...
do as i say, not as i do.

the bell is tolling from afar...from those who pulled the trigger on
the kennedy's and the 90 day convenient to have the problem
resolved while in a 3'rd world country.....he has lived a life of deciet
and lies....his rise to power was a lie....a lie from afar will fell him.

'for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction' isaac newton

what brought the bounty....will consume the bounty...and those with-in..

gold calls, crude oil calls, bond puts, and grain calls....major drought this summer...grains
going to the moon...too early to go long imm...

cherokee!; ) ..sharpening-the-scythe-of-life.....clean-cuts-are-good-cuts..

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:54 - ID#153102)
It's all about confidence, isn't it ?
Confidence that Japanese Banks will not fold.
Confidence that Japanese companies will not default on bond payments.
Confidence that Japanese real estate values will not fall.
Confidence that the new loan will be made.
Confidence that the trader at the next computer sceen will not lose confidence.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 22:57 - ID#317193)
Your "thoughts" have been mine for several weeks. No facts, just a feel. Scary if correct. Tom

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:03 - ID#288399)
Lester Thurow/MIT/POG
Heard Lester Thurow say anyone who makes a financial bet that gold will go to $600/oz is a "foolish" person. He said it this morning on C-Span. Thurow also said that the stock market was only "slightly" overvalued. This from a big-shot MIT MBA-instructing economist. Some how, it seemed just another sign of a "top" in the equities market.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:06 - ID#26669)
All RE Vronsky's 15:18 post
The part of Vronsky's post about seasonality of gold prices is well worth rereading, IMHO. Thanks, Mr. Vronsky.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:06 - ID#26669)
All RE Vronsky's 15:18 post
The part of Vronsky's post about seasonality of gold prices is well worth rereading, IMHO. Thanks, Mr. Vronsky.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:13 - ID#201238)
TYoung - where to go
Tom - my feelings are so strong today about an ill wind I could direct you to two places. First is my PhD EE brother's site at for a scientific explanation, or to one of my spiritual brothers like Mike Sheller, Chad Meek, Ray DeMoss or Cherokee.....

For whatever path you travel, something is going on, BIG TIME.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:13 - ID#42365)
Your guess is as good as anyone elses...

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:17 - ID#340459)
South Asian Markets are going South, DOW will dive tomorrow.
Gold is already in Bull run in currencies other than USA's. The DOW was under curbs for most of the day. A $ 30 billion Dollar Paper pyramid was cut in half today. Fidelity and Putnam had more than 100+ million shares and lost $ 1.5 Billion in just 2 funds today as the stock went down $16 overnite.

I feel very positive about uptrend in POG henceforth..

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:18 - ID#269191)
Lester Thurow
In October 1929 the foremost economist of the day, Irving Fisher, said
that "stocks are on a permanently high plateau". We all know what
happened. Anybody who takes investment advice from an economist is
one step above a person who gets his investment advice from the
government. Both will die poor. Besides Lester Thurow isn't even
a good economist. In fact he's not even in the Economics Department
at MIT. I think he's in the Management School.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:19 - ID#408285)
The time to ask whether the dow is too high is when is 6000. At 9000 we are in a bubble. A bubble can last for a long time. The good news is that it has always ended the same.... with a panic.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:22 - ID#286230)
Earl: Taxes aren't subsidized. Mine were 3100 but I have a modest suburban home. Canadian beer that costs me $29 for 24 sells in Buffalo for about US11 I'm told. Gas in Toronto is about 50 cents a litre at he moment--down from about .55 recently --that's about $2.70 for a US gallon. You can't pay for brain surgery here but it isn't free. I'll go back and take a look for the URL.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:24 - ID#401237)
Hanoi Jane

ATLANTA ( AP ) - Jane Fonda apologized Thursday for telling a United Nations group that
parts of Georgia resemble a Third World country, with children ``starving to death'' and
people living in ``tar-paper shacks.''
and barefoot and pregnant young girls.

You just got to love the Gal don't you?


(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:25 - ID#304282)
Comex futures dropping fast as ASIA burns

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:28 - ID#344308)

and the band plays on...the temptations...and the nikkei.....

watch the destruction of paper, and the birth of the asian-gold-tiger...
we are kindred spirits....the smoke-signals are from places un-seen.....
the messages, they all scream.....the death knell of the paper-tiger.

the ink oozes from every crevice with-in our society...the in-ability
to support structures meant to last aeons, has created a legacy of doom
for the un-suspecting riders.....they did not know...the peopleo. they
were TOLD this could not happen. that paper would fall, and gold would
re-gain her stature amongst nations and men...yet it un-folds before
our very eyes...better listen to your eyes, they are screaming.

look at gold since it broke free of the $35 level....what has it been in?
yer damn up-trend! LOOK at it......

!; ) ...dotssmfatimmmf....asotbwitw.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:29 - ID#190411)
@Vronsky and Polarbear
What's the poop on RANGY? Their price is staying depressed.
Is it the Marsfontein Farm suit with Debeers?
I also see that Crown goes nowhere but down.
Is this your Phoenix, or just another mudpuppy?

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:30 - ID#340459)
Far East Markets now, I hope this is readable post
All Ordinaries
Shanghai Composite
Hong Kong
Hang Seng
BSE 30
Jakarta Composite
Nikkei 225
KLSE Composite
New Zealand
Karachi 100
Apr 15
PSE Composite
Straits Times
South Korea
Seoul Composite
Sri Lanka
All Share
Taiwan Weighted

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:30 - ID#22650)
Hardcase your 21.58: I work in agriculture, specifically biological fertility
program construction. This type of fertility is definitely in the minority in a chemistry dominated "industry". Since I sincerely believe that we are a reflection of the soil and that which springs from it, if what you think might come to pass with the collapse of big system agriculture because of computer failure, then I am all for it. I do not consider myself a luddite, but farming has become an industrialized activity and has lost its importance as providing energy for our minds and bodies. I am convinced that a large part of the degradation of our ( US ) society is directly related to the degradation of the natural fertility balance of our soil. We have seen a direct transfer of wealth from the soil to the banks, degenerative health care "industry", and now food "supplement" industry.! If you study soil samples and the declining quality of food,one can see the obvious connection. Most of us on this site ( excellent site ) wish to tie economic discipline to a gold standard.Gold is a commodity, like wheat, corn, milk, soybeans, cotton etc. Does it not make sense to peg the well being of our society to these things that sustain our well being? We note and complain about the bear market in gold and how this reflects on society and what will happen because of it. Well, what about the decades long bear market in the goods that provide energy for us? Do you suppose there is any connection between this depression and rape of the producer, declining quality of soil, air, water and food, and then to society? If in this wondrous information age all of these people are going to be displaced, why then don't we go back to the family farm, a system where a large percentage of the population can raise their families and have a vested interest in the long-term productivity of their land. Would this not benefit all of society? Would this not contribute mightily to the economy? The only losers would be the international paper-shufflers. Sorry to be so long winded. Thank you.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:36 - ID#286230)
Kalahari Goldridge
Earl: The URL worked for me --don't know what to say. Here is --dare I say it--Another site

and it worked too.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:37 - ID#426220)

AS ALL WELL KNOW THE Tokyo Exchange shuts down for lunch. When it did today it was already down 250 points. Not two minutes return from
whoofing down a bowl of soube-noodles and the Nikkei free-falls another
100 points - for more than 350 down... so far...

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:37 - ID#344308)


absolutely excellent connective analogy!

connectivity.....and an open mind...things jump at you.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:40 - ID#210235)
@Aragorn III
Just wanted to thank you for taking the time recently to put together a few thoughtful and informative posts designed to show the big picture, and giving a context to our ramblings.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:40 - ID#344308)

world gold council and their stats....

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:41 - ID#288260)
Used to be buy buy asia. Now it's bye bye asia, bye bye.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:41 - ID#201238)
I should have included JIN amoung my spiritual brothers ( I am sure I have left out many others in my haste to post ) . JIN has endured the extreme stress of what my befall us in the western world, yet he keeps his chin up and his sense of humor! What a guy!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:41 - ID#426220)

NIKKEI down 420 points in kamekazi dive.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:42 - ID#286230)
Vronsky: Myabe they read Kitco while eating their noodles.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:42 - ID#344308)

from the fin who shares...just the facts.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:43 - ID#190411)
URL fine - good site, thanks.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:45 - ID#344308)

and free

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:46 - ID#344308)

and globex showing red....

go get 'em.......zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:46 - ID#57232)
Gold up or down tomorrow?
All: I'm not so sure, paraphrasing Vronsky. If the world's financial system is threatened, gold will go down. If the US markets go down only, perhaps not, though gold did do down last October when the US markets dropped the most. Will the PPT step in, or won't it?

Gold will go down if the Japanese sell gold. But -- as several Kitcoites have said, the Japanese people probably will not sell. But -- what about the Japanese government? It all depends on how much paper they have to dump first -- US dollars to generate more yen to buy Japanese stocks?

The only thing we know for sure is that after after this crisis is over, gold will be more dear than ever.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:47 - ID#335190)
Pagoda @ 23:30
Outstanding point of view. The trustee ( farmer ) of our community food standards, is the individual farmer, and yes, they are protective of the ""long-term productivity of their land"" Money and power, has a higher rating over Food and Health. Gold, and productive Land, and quality of life. = VALUE

Thanks Take Care.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:48 - ID#344308)

the privateer....

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:48 - ID#210235)
When you know the relationship between a healthy soil and the culture upon it, doesn't it make you just want to get up and scream it to all who will listen? Most of us here feel the same way about honest currency, honest government, and values to live by. Can't seem to separate them. Good luck in your work. I've been having much better results, myself, since I use only compost to enrich the soil, after studying results from U. C. and elsewhere on how quickly chemical use creates chemical dependency, actually killing off the biological elements that created the genuine fertility. May the next century see the reversal of the last, with sustainable agriculture!

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:54 - ID#57232)
Cmax: Did you say that Venezuela has devalued? If so, we are not jsut talking about Japan, but South America as well. This is the logical outcome of an Oil glut, and dropping Venezuelan Oil income. I don't think we need to worry about their selling gold -- because I don't think they have any.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:54 - ID#153102)
I think farm work is great as long as somebody else is doing it.

I do believe that debt currency fosters a financial environment which is hostile to quality. It is not just in the food chain that quality has deteriorated. I don't think you can have a fraudulent unit of account, medium of exchange, and store of value without a contagious spread of the inherent moral hazard.

(Thu Apr 16 1998 23:54 - ID#227238)
Selby: I was kidding about the subsidy. ..... That is a pretty good whack for property taxes. Probably a bit higher - by a kilobuck - than they would be here for an average residence.