Yes -- I think you are right -- I think it was Venezueala that sold all of their gold reserves last year.
We need to be nimble now -- change is on the wind again. Tornado warnings all over central US tonight, too ( See Matt Drudge ) .
G'Nite all -- try to get some sleep because tomorrow may be busy.
"The derivatives holdings of U.S. commercial banks increased 26.5% over the first nine months of 1997, up 50% from 1996. Chase Manhattan's derivatives exposure is equal to U.S. GDP and the U.S. banking system as a whole has $62 in off-balance sheet derivatives for every dollar of equity capital and $5 for every dollar of assets on the banks' balance sheets. A loss of 1.6% on the banks' derivatives portfolio would be enough to wipe out the ENTIRE EQUITY CAPITAL OF THE U.S. BANKING SYSTEM. ( emphasis mine )
"The Bank for International Settlements reported in November that $82.6 trillion in derivatives were held by 79 selected financial institutions in major nations at the end of 1996. Chase Manhattan was tops on the list with $7.9 trillion or 31% of all U.S. bank derivatives. Chase had $364 of derivatives for every dollar of equity and $22 in derivatives for every dollar in assets. Next was J.P. Morgan with $6.2 trillion or $537 in derivatives for every dollar of equity. Seven top banks had $109 billion in equity and $1.7 trillion in assets compared to $24 trillion in derivatives, or $220 in derivatives for every dollar in equity and $14 in derivatives for every dollar in assets. They had 26% of all U.S. bank equity, 35% of U.S. bank assets and 95% of the derivatives. In the first nine months of 1997 about $190 billion of asset-backed securities were issued, up 23% from 1996. It should be noted that J.P. Morgan's final 1997 quarter reflected $54 million in derivative losses and they designated $587 million of assets as non-performing derivatives for a total possible loss of $659 million. Now, if this isn't enough to scare you, you have serious problems."
( As copied from The Reaper 4/9/98 p.10 )
Japan has its own internal problems, certainly. Yet, am I the only one to discern a grin about to break into a laugh when a BOJ official is asked to comment on some dire circumstances the U.S. is threatening.
FWIW: only holdings are Delta and Alta, plus the obligatory physical.
Why do I agree with the both of you about this? The answer lies in Antony C. Sutton's comment in his 1975 book titled 'The Gold War'where he says that in the early 70's the US and IMF were at odds with the BIS because the BIS wanted the US $ price of gold to be higher. According to Sutton, the BIS was able to coerce the US by threatening to call in some kind of debt instrument. Unfortunately I have been unable to contact Sutton. My reasoning is that there is only one kind of debt that the BIS deals in -- borrowed gold.
Mozel -- this goes along with one of your comments -- namely that the BIS does not need to worry about their gold in other banks, because for some reason it is safe. That says a mouthful.
This topic reminds me of what ANOTHER said about the gold game, and it bears repeating. He said that the name of the game is to get all the gold. Then he said the next part of the game was to loan it out again with strings attached, because it was worth 'alot more' when it was being 'used'.
What if the BIS/Rothschild's control much more of the world's economic system than meets the eye? Just how many corporations/banks do the Rothschild's really own -- certainly alot more than Debeers, Royal Dutch petroleun and a number of banks. So even the US might not risk defaulting on a debt to the BIS, because the BIS could probably -- through its connections, seriously jeopardise the ability of the US to float debt on the world markets. Most of this control is probably well hidden, and subtle, but effective.
Perhaps this explains why the Chinese gold buyers are causing so much commotion? Their gold was bought outright, and there are few attached strings that the BIS/Rothschilds can use to maintain control.
I want to share my first experance with discernment. I was going fishing with a couple of friends. On the way to the lake I told them my wife has been really mad at me. She says in the middle of the night I reach over and play with her butt in my sleep. I sayed no more about it. Five hours latter were at our room, three guys two beds. They thru there bags on one bed and sayed I could have the bed to myself. I discern gold up dow down.
Someone please correct me if I am wrong about this -- I think that Pat Robertson's public stand on this matter indicates that there is a growing mainstream awareness of the suspicious deaths of Ron Brown and Vince Foster, as well as that unfortunate woman who died inside the locked commerce building. You do not need to be a conspiracy buff to realize that all of these autopsy investigations were botched, at the very least. In the Ron Brown investigation, 4 AFIP autopsy Forensics experts have said it was botched/covered up -- the people that did or observed the autopsy.
Also, Kenneth Starr said today that his investigation will last well into Noveber, and that he is too busy to join Pepperdine Univ this year.
Lastly Paul Jones has decided to appeal her court reversal.
I think all of the XXXgate stuff is coming to a slow boil, and will come to a creshendo around no laster than election time yr 2000. BC's problems are not over, and he will be looking for a distraction with Saddam Hussein, especially if the markets start to wilt.
I have a comment that supports your long standing opinion that inflation is what we need to fear in the US, not deflation. It relates to the trends of the producer price index, the consumer price index, and the wholesale price index ( an older version of the producer price index ) . The WPI is available back to the 1700's in the US. Pre - fiat currency days, the cost of living index ( WPI ) would go up, and then it would go back down. Now, however, from about the time we went of the official gold standard, a different pattern has emerged. The PPI/CPI still goes up -- much more rapidly ( which we already know ) , but the periods of time when the cost of living index should go down, it tends to remain stagnant.
So -- what we have done with our 'fiat' currency in the US -- post going off the official gold standard -- is eliminate most of the deflationary parts of the business cycle. Unfortunately as we all know the price we are paying is increased inflation.
This scenario supports your comment that inflation is what we will face , not deflation, as the name of the game has been to eliminate deflations and smooth our the business cycle since the great depression.
The catch is that, just as those Yellowstone forresters found out the hard way, there is a need for a cyclal, controlled burn to remove the nonproductive underbrush. Just as what happened with Yellowstone, one day we will have the granddaddy of a forest fire, and then we will realize that the business cycle is there for a reason. So eventually we will have the granddaddy of a deflation too. I guess the point is, 'don't mess with Mother Nature', either with forrests or markets.
There is one other inflationary item you did not mention in your post. There is at least $1 trillion in bad debt from SEAsia. My guess it is being repackaged in the form of some kind of a new debt instrument to get the creditors off the hook. This will surface as new inflation years from now when that debt becomes due again. This contributed to the inflationary crisis in the 70's ( and 80's? ) , and we ( the world's financial gurus ) will undoubtedly make the same mistake again.
US is the largest debitor nation.
But Japan is supposedly going bankrupt.
Is this because Japans credits consist mostly of the US debts?
I speculate that an affinity for gold has more in common with Ada than them other computer tongues. Gold and Ada have been dropping for many years, but some of us believe both have more real value than is generally understood.
Perhaps when we as a society come to understand the importance of reliable, maintainable software and a sound baseline for economics, Ada and gold will shine once more.
We, on the other hand will not be that fortunate when it is our turn -- we do not have the savings reserves to fall back on. When the big deflationary collapse finally gets us, it will be a short and painful trip to the bottom. Maybe months -- certainly not 10 years. And maybe not till 2010-2015, or y2k.
Coming next week Wall Street says the same..........BUY GOLD AND LOTS OF IT
http://www.nandonet.com/newsroom/ntn/politics/041798/politics10_22103.html
There is no doubt I will be bombarded with Grammarians blasting the apparent redundancy of my title. Frankly, don't give a damn, because it is used for emphasis to continue to harp and carp the assertion that in gold's next bull market, the South African golds will far out glitter the North-American and Australian precious metals stocks -- as they so often have done in the past.
Following is yet more proof of my statement - the venerable source is the December 1994 issue of the Gold Newsletter, known internationally as procurer of reliable and timely information on gold stocks. The numbers speak loudly and clearly that South African golds have historically demonstrated more intrinsic value than their international brethren across the 'Big Pond.' Here are the data from the 1994Gold Newsletter.
R E G I O N..Market Cap/..Price/EarningsDividend
....................................Reserve Oz.RatioYield
North-America$241. 52X....0.6%
Australia....... $36743X..1.0%
South Africa...... $26.18X....42.0%
For a comparison of today's data see the report: "GLOBAL GOLD COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS" - pls notice it is necessary to close the space before the the word "-eagle" of the URL below - before posting the URL to the Internet:
http://www.gold -eagle.com/gold_digest_98/vronsky032798.html
As I recall, there are other rechargeable battery technologies that might substitute right now:
1 ) Nickel - iron battery commonly used in portable computers
2 ) Lead acid -- fewer recharges than nickel-iron
Other batteries include:
Silver-zinc ( I think ) very expensive but high capacity non rechargeable
Aluminum - air ( recyclable ) good potential for long range electric car.
Fuel cell ( technically not a battery ) - very expensive, but becoming practical for electric vehicles - reguires highly purified fuel. Hydrogen may be the best energy choice environmentally -- from water or natural gas.
Sodium/alumina -- High capacity expensive and very hot ( impractical for home/car use ) .
Lithium/X ( unknown ) -- expensive, high capacity, not rechargeable
I think the bottom line is that silver use in batteries is not likely to be a high demand item in the small battery or electric vehicle markets, unless there is a major cost breakthrough in the technology.
My guess is that nickel-iron or lead acid batteries will substitute for the nicads in the small home rechargeable market, and the hydrogen fuel cell technology will be the first practical large scale, low pollution automotive application. Just today there were reports of significant process cost reductions in the electrolyis of water to hydrogen and oxygen. Combustion to H2O + power is as low-pollution as one could ever imagine. No CO2 pollution, even.
Hydrogen is not that dangerous when compared to gasoline - now that there are low-pressure hydride fuel tanks available. Not that I would want to sit by one engulfed in flames ---- but there should not be a source of flames if there was an elcetronic safety shutoff at the tank.
Thanks in advance
I will continue to look for a strictly SA Gold fund. I agree with Lock&Lode that it is the very best place to be at this time.
Thanks again for your help and keep up the good work
My guess is that the serial deflationary events will continue, and the US markets will continue to rally for a time as one by one other markets drop. As the US market bubble rises, concerns about the future ( not necessarily inflationary ) will cause gold and gold stocks to rally along with the markets. As FV has said, the equilibrium price of gold is about $600/oz, even without any inflation. Some inflation might return to weaken the markets, and push the price of gold up even more. Finally, the US market bubble will collapse under its own weight, as the 'flight to safety' surge dries up.
I agree with Mike Sheller's assessment that the really big upward move in gold will probably not be until 2005-2010 or so when inflation will come back with a vengeance.
One advantage of 'fiat' money is that you do not have to worry about keeping anything as collateral. Can't get hanged if you do not need to produce collateral.
What amazes me is that the 'fiat' currency works as well as it does. The stock markets are kept up by their own bootstraps -- simply based on faith. The same for 'fiat' currency.
And the assets for our stock markets are kept in 'fiat' currency. Thus our stock markets are two levels removed from reality. Frightening thought.
How many people, if they thought about that, would want their life savings nearly 100% invested in the equity markets?
Imagine a house built on faith, not bricks and mortar.
Who would want to live in it?
I also enjoy the humor presented here for the breaks it provides and the back and forth between posters ( when it doesn't get too out of hand. )
As we look back on the week that was, and forward to the coming weeks full of new and positive bullish developments for PM's, I urge those of you who have "left" this forum, but are still lurking, to comeback and continue to post as many of us undoubtedly have still much to learn concerning PM's.
Again, THANK YOU. ISO
Yo quiero beber muchas cervezas esta noche......Si!... ( can't make those cool tildes and accents on my work 'puter....dammit! ) life is STILL good........now I must get home to slug down a cold one...uh huh. This grinding stuff can wait.................. ( gulp-gulp ) ...go gold.
Hey Bart! have you delivered my mountie ( singular ) yet?? Did you run out? Has StudioR bought them all?? I'm flying to Studio7 this weekend to steal me a few and knock around that geetar player.........and drink cuba libre's.....yum yum.
away...to the road
EB ;- )
away ( ! )
EB
I want to share my first experance with discernment. I was going fishing with a couple frinds. On the way to the lake I told them my wife has been really mad at me. She says in the middle of the night I reach over and play with her butt in my sleep. I sayed no more about it.
Five hours latter were at our room, three guys two beds. They thru there bags on one bed and said I could have the bed to myself. I discern Gold up Dow down.
In all too many nations, noncompliance with the legally constituted tax authorities is an ongoing problem. In Russia for example, the government is forced to go hat in hand to international lending agencies for the cash to cover day to day operations. A truly sorry spectacle and very low commentary on the state of relations between the Russian taxpayer and his government. Don't you agree?
Imagine how we all might feel in international company, knowing that our citizens care so little about their duty to their masters as to fail to, voluntarily, pay all taxes due them.
Don't you get a warm glow in your heart whenever you read such a report and realize that but for existence of our duly constituted, voluntary tax system, we would likely face the same embarrassment. I know that our masters do. And they retire each evening thanking Almighty God for such.
Fortunately we are not forced to suffer the same ignominy in the United States. A nation that has daily need to appear faultless as a shining example of democracy in an otherwise troubled and miscast world. And it's only possible because our masters have chosen a system that rewards voluntary behavior. It does so by allowing the VOLUNTEER to temporarily maintain remaining assets, at volunteer's expense, until such time as our masters find need of them. Of course it's only natural that in cases of dispute, the master's need's take precedence over the supplicant. That is only natural. Don't you agree? And so it is, as it should be, in a well ordered and voluntary world.
This system is the envy of other masters in other nations, all over the world. Predicated, as it is, on the notion of VOLUNTARY COMPLIANCE. A system that could not function, were it not for the BIG HEARTS and boundless magnanimity of the American people. A sense of civic pride and duty to the state that truly brings tears to the eye, if you ( can ) think about it.
So as another tax season comes to a fruitful and binding close, your masters would like you to know how much they appreciate the many, who voluntarily signed their tax forms and by so doing relinquished all rights to protection under the 5th Amendment. It is but a trifle and of no consequence when measured by the importance of maintaining the illusion of VOLUNTARY COMPLIANCE. Has a nice ring to it. Doesn't it? Just knowing that it's not just money you're giving but a constitutional right as well. How much more to prove love and devotion to the masters?
Feel free to now pursue those things that are not bounded by extra constitutional authority. Consumption is good. Hoarding is bad. Those misguided individuals who choose to hurt their fellows and their nation, by storing resources outside the banking and monetary system are strongly urged to reconsider doing so. It is only by keeping the product of our labor in continuous circulation that this great nation and its masters can continue to fluorish.
So fellow citizens, consume much. Prepare now, to volunteer again next year and for those whose health is somewhat suspect, please plan ahead for a speedy demise. There are many depending upon an already overburdened system. It would be an example of poor citizenship, to unduly stress the system, by wasting resources better left for the more deserving.
Find out more about Kitco at info@kitco.com, or call 1-800-363-7053.
Copyright © 1996 Kitco Minerals & Metals Inc.
Personally, I do not believe that Kitco's strong bias in favor of gold ( or silver ) is a a bad thing. Why? Because today, we live in a world in which gold is disparaged routinely in virtually all mainistream media...or it is ignored completely.
What is so wrong about the tendentious nature of this forum then? Why is it perfectly acceptable for a media outlet such as CNBC to blast its frequent, total, chauvinistic support of the supremacy of equities and bonds ( and the irrelevance of gold in a modern economy ) ...yet somehow various Kitcoites feel it is imperative for this forum to present a fair balance between goldbugs and their pro-equities/anti-gold poster antagonists...and the very same Kitcoites become oh-so indignant if they perceive the argumentation is balancing too far in favor of gold??
What is wrong with having another strong mouthpiece for gold ( such as the Kitco Forum ) in this "paper-pyramid-economy-is-OK-by-me" world? God only knows the World Gold Council is doing a miserable job of propagandizing gold's merits. So, what crime exists in allowing a preponderance of goldbug intellectuals to present their views over a non-mainstream internet site such as this and offer some token resistance to the mountain of anti-gold nonsense out there?
Balance...schmalance.
I welcome anti-gold exponents to post on this forum...I beg them to do so. However, be warned...there are those here ( myself included ) who will dispute your anti-gold logic until it crumbles into the nonsensical gibberish it really is. If that should happen and you run away, "crying to mama," then do not blame us!! Furthermore, let no other Kitcoites scold those of us who "take no prisoners" in such argumentation either.
The pro-gold/anti-gold schism is not a mere dialectic...it is nothing less than a cultural war. Despite the ostensible appearance of pandemic prosperity, this country is at war with itself. Anyone who would deny this is viewing the world through blinders.
There are many in this world and on this forum who have built their houses upon foundations of gold and silver...who clothe their families out of the fabrics of gold and silver...who feed their families from plates of gold and silver...so...
...when you come on this forum and declare that these metals are effectively worthless...or headed to the dustbin of history...then you might as well be a rapist who breaks into my home. I will shoot you...I will kill you...I will rip off your ears and gleefully watch you bleed to death on my floor.
Thanks.
F*