Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 00:09 - ID#170211)
I am a newby kitcoite
and wondering what you veterans of this venue think of some of the North American majors, especially the unhedged ( relatively ) such as HM and NEM/NGC. Their charts, esp. that of NEM, seem to have bottomed, begun an accumulation phase, and perhaps even a whiff of a breakout last week. Also, what could be the result to some of the highly hedged such as ABX if gold spurts as some of you think? Won't those with the big hedge positions not participate fully in the runup/funup?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 00:10 - ID#401237)
South Korea Tonight

South Korea
Seoul Composite


(Sat Apr 18 1998 00:12 - ID#22956)
....peace pipe'm dude'm.....

have you been to the grain train yet? It may be time to board the bean coach...for she may be leaving the ;- )

BART! I received notice that some Fed-Ex guy was at my door this a.m. with said package of goldage. Have made arrangements for delivery tomorrow..........what a great day!! The north-north-east-western-wing was finished yesterday. Not a day too ( ! ) . Yu Da Man ( . )

Anyone want to go water skiing tomorrow? Meet me at Lake Nacimiento- Heritage Ranch......6:00pm PST...dockside. Glass-Off! Let us touch elbows in the water.....uh huh. go glass...go GOLDen sunset. break out the stick


(Sat Apr 18 1998 00:14 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Charts
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts:
Five Year Chart
120 market days Chart
30 market days Chart
10 days Hourly Chart

The 10 day hourly chart is UGLY!
But the Long Term and 120 day Chart
show the trend is still UP!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 00:15 - ID#344308)

the best way to 'connect' is through reading the THOUGHTS
of ANOTHER....

(Sat Apr 18 1998 00:19 - ID#344308)

the history of the financial world.....who are the real task-masters?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 00:22 - ID#227238)
The tax season is over. A lovely weekend is at hand and your government would like to take this opportunity to thank all of you for your exemplary behavior during this trying period just past. As you all know, YOUR government works very hard to maintain the illusion that OUR tax system in the United States of America maintains itself by virtue of VOLUNTARY compliance. No other nation on the face of the earth can make that lofty claim.

In all too many nations, noncompliance with the legally constituted tax authorities is an ongoing problem. In Russia for example, the government is forced to go hat in hand to international lending agencies for the cash to cover day to day operations. A truly sorry spectacle and very low commentary on the state of relations between the Russian taxpayer and his government. Don't you agree?

Imagine how we all might feel in international company, knowing that our citizens care so little about their duty to their masters as to fail to, voluntarily, pay all taxes due them.

Don't you get a warm glow in your heart whenever you read such a report and realize that but for existence of our duly constituted, voluntary tax system, we would likely face the same embarrassment. I know that our masters do. And they retire each evening thanking Almighty God for such.

Fortunately we are not forced to suffer the same ignominy in the United States. A nation that has daily need to appear faultless as a shining example of democracy in an otherwise troubled and miscast world. And it's only possible because our masters have chosen a system that rewards voluntary behavior. It does so by allowing the VOLUNTEER to temporarily maintain remaining assets, at volunteer's expense, until such time as our masters find need of them. Of course it's only natural that in cases of dispute, the master's need's take precedence over the supplicant. That is only natural. Don't you agree? And so it is, as it should be, in a well ordered and voluntary world.

This system is the envy of other masters in other nations, all over the world. Predicated, as it is, on the notion of VOLUNTARY COMPLIANCE. A system that could not function, were it not for the BIG HEARTS and boundless magnanimity of the American people. A sense of civic pride and duty to the state that truly brings tears to the eye, if you ( can ) think about it.

So as another tax season comes to a fruitful and binding close, your masters would like you to know how much they appreciate the many, who voluntarily signed their tax forms and by so doing relinquished all rights to protection under the 5th Amendment. It is but a trifle and of no consequence when measured by the importance of maintaining the
illusion of VOLUNTARY COMPLIANCE. Has a nice ring to it. Doesn't it? Just knowing that it's not just money you're giving but a constitutional right as well. How much more to prove love and devotion to the masters?

Feel free to now pursue those things that are not bounded by extra constitutional authority. Consumption is good. Hoarding is bad. Those misguided individuals who choose to hurt their fellows and their nation, by storing resources outside the banking and monetary system are strongly urged to reconsider doing so. It is only by keeping the product of our labor in continuous circulation that this great nation and its masters can continue to fluorish.

So fellow citizens, consume much. Prepare now, to volunteer again next year and for those whose health is somewhat suspect, please plan ahead for a speedy demise. There are many depending upon an already overburdened system. It would be an example of poor citizenship, to unduly stress the system, by wasting resources better left for the more

(Sat Apr 18 1998 00:22 - ID#344308)

more thoughts....

history and the present....

(Sat Apr 18 1998 00:24 - ID#153102)
" ( How do the proceeds resulting from the sale of T-notes by the New York
FED Bank end up in the private hands of international bankers? )
Alberich the Dwarf"

The Congress of the United States makes an appropriation at the request of the Governor of the Fund, presently Robert Rubin.
Or the New York Federal Reserve Bank exchanges Treasury proceeds in FRN for Yen with the Bank of Japan or another party.
Or an international bank which is also a member of the Federal Reserve System assigns a security agreement to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, receives FRN of the face value of the security agreement, and purchases a Treasury Bill or Bond with them.

P.S. Regarding your fraudulent goldsmith's escaping justice by forming a cartel, in America they are guilty of conspiracy to defraud as well as fraud.

P.P.S. The Law is sleeping beneath the legal robbery of legal tender.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 00:24 - ID#401237)

NEM, ABX, HM, etc all moved in their own way when Gold showed strength. If I didn't have such a strong position already I would be buying more NEM. I may anyway shortly, can't resist the opportunity.

PGU was up 2% today = $0.01 Just think of the leverage some of the beaten up mines can give. ECO, I have traded over the years between 6 and 14 it is at 2+ now I think. Some real money to made for the patient one. I think.

Just wait till the rotation moves to the PMs, the numbers are awesome, just look at the last few years with the Dow.


(Sat Apr 18 1998 00:29 - ID#170211)
What about some SA stocks...
such as Vaal Reefs, formerly VAALY and now AGOLY? Does any kitcoite have views on it?
By the way, looking at NEM/NGC's annual report, this company seems to share the view of you more bullish members, especially the view from the chairman's letter to shareholders. Gold has bottomed; the upside is far greater than the downside, and the threat of CB sales is minimal now.
Finally, you will get little fluff from me. I'll obey the ruleso f discourse and won't gum this forum up with drivel, jokes or speculation or jokes about our pitiful president.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 00:35 - ID#344308)

and finally....

j adams....

al gore, the biggest mouth-piece espousing the people to give....
donated a paltry $340 to charity....the lineage of ones who eat
their spawn....

82 yester-day....54 today.....nel winino...fixing to dry the fruited
plain......drought from coast to coast this summer.....the limb, and
paper.....both will be exposed to ride this train...again.

!; ) ........master-of-the-lake-and-her-winds---no-luffs-allowed...

(Sat Apr 18 1998 00:37 - ID#215235)
HIGHRISE - PGU & Patience
Your comments re PGU are accurate. I bought a bunch of shares cheap and believe that over the next few years they will grow in value dramatically. If the stock dips below $.35, I'll accumulate more. PGU could finance my early retirement. If it goes belly up, I'll only lose a few pesos. The risk/reward ratio is too great an opportunity. Thanks for your comments. I can see you're a wise man. What do you think of ECO. I bought a bunch of shares just below $2.00?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 00:48 - ID#57232)
I don't know what to make of this - Monicagate
Apparently Kenneth Starr is asking to interview the Secret Service again, despite Janet Reno's earlier refusal to let them testify. Perhaps it is how the resquest is made, or he has new evidence.

If the Secret Service officers are allowed to testify, I think at least one will say they say BC with someone other than Hillary. There may be a showdown between K Starr and Janet Reno. I must admit I am rather dismayed that Janet Reno is not being more supportive of Starr.

Just how did CBS get access to a 'sealed motion' from K Starr?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 00:53 - ID#344308)


it is time to begin buying calls in all of the grains.

still believe there could be a collapse in beans to the
590 area before they blast-off for the moon. i'm waiting
on the side-line with a paper-pistol...waiting to way-lay
the grain train...i'll up-date the positions as they're acquired.

fixing to dally with some kilo gold futures....again. swore off
futures in gold...the options are lonely. the bow is drawn on this
one as well...

gold futures are traded in 100oz contracts, or in 'mini' contracts.
the mini contracts are kilos, and very affordable ( $280 ) . $1 = $32.50...
not much money to 'play' futures...same for the grains, there are mini
contracts---1/5 regular contract size...1kbsl-----now units.

life is good......swing the bat of life.....options for the wary...
physical for-ever..

you MUST step up to the plate, AND swing the bat of life in order to hit
a home run...


(Sat Apr 18 1998 00:57 - ID#344308)

there is only rule for successful investing.

buy low....sell high..


(Sat Apr 18 1998 00:58 - ID#288369)
@a.j. (mena)....
Muchas garcias por su translacion de los dos palabras. Sabo "ouzo" es greek....what the hell does that matter? huh? ouzo es bueno porque it blows your mind. stuttgart.r

(Sat Apr 18 1998 01:04 - ID#344308)

and the flip-side...

sell low.

how many will follow this credo?
as reported will take only
a drop in the bucket to burst the damn.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 01:06 - ID#20135)
Delivery notices so far in April 4,080 = 408,00 ounces and let's see...
oh, yes, there are ONLY 159,146 ounces eligible for delivery in ALL OF COMEX. Well, the shorts have NO fear as always ... BUT I smell a sea change. Have a good weekend everyone, thanks for all the help ( the posts are fantastic as usual ) . Goodnight.


Gold 12,000
Silver 8,000
H.G. Copper 13,000

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

475,158 0 0 0 0 475,158
159,146 0 0 0 0 159,146
634,304 0 0 0 0 634,304

-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

870,765 0 33,795,629
493,864 0 55,684,786
1,364,629 0 89,480,415

COMEX Delivery Notices for Today

-- -- -- -- TOTAL DELIVERY NOTICES -- -- --
SO FAR FOR April 4,773 61 4,080

(Sat Apr 18 1998 01:11 - ID#170211)
Did anyone see Moneyline tonite?
Jan Hopkins interviewed some gurus ( didn't get their names ) and asked them what is good to buy now. They both said inflation is cooking ( but still hard to discern just yet ) , 2d qtr results would start to show the effects of the SEAsia mess, and that GOLD is a buy as are GOLD stocks. One specifically mentioned Euro- and Franco-Nevada. If the elves are talking up our metal now, does that mean the 10% rise off the January bottom is all we'll get and the boomlet in gold is finis? Or is the "Herd," as James Dines calls them, finally catching on? Hope it's the latter. Nevertheless, for Moneyline to even use the word GOLD is a rarity indeed. And a good one, dontcha think?. Nitey nite.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 01:14 - ID#253418)
More bad news for silver bulls
Comex stocks for silver up 1.3+ million ozs. The only hope is that this silver is moving into place for May deliveries. Hope springs eternal, but it looks like lacking a "Sea Change" of some type we're headed lower accross the board in the metal stocks. Reasons: ( a ) XAU finished weakly and is set to take out a triple bottom at the 84 gap, ( b ) despite PE is the stratospher ( sp? ) stocks keep rolling along - traditional DOW type stocks that is, and ( c ) the dollar remains king.

Oh, I forgot there is hope, real hope - some cylce or another is due to bottom on the 20th of April. Suspect there will be a down day to go with the projection. I'm going to start keeping track of all these quasi technical calls. My rough current count has about 1 in 5 being anywhere near correct.

DA, as far as I can remeber was the only person suggesting a sell last weekend when it looked like we'd get back under way in this failing precious metal rally. He was suggesting a short at $6.40. The market was so weak he really couldn't have gotten it off in New York on Monday morning. Best move I made this week was to reduce my precious metal stock exposure - worst mistake was not to have sold it all.
My thought is that it's going to be down first before there's a new rally. 90 on the XAU was a real stopper.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 01:22 - ID#288369)
@EB...air guitar gold medalist......
studio.7 is blocked out indefinitely for your performance. Name your producer...your wish is my command. I need to visit with you regarding your publishing. skunkbaxter.r

(Sat Apr 18 1998 01:27 - ID#401237)

"The "Herd," as James Dines calls them, finally catching on."


(Sat Apr 18 1998 01:28 - ID#153102)
@Dwarf @Earl @T1
Dwarf, you are not reading or not understanding what I am writing. The problem in America is not the Banksters in Manhattan, it's the Gangsters in Congress and the White House. I don't know the problem in the Nederland ( if there even is one ) . Government in America has no charter to use force except to protect the rights of the good people as individuals. It is outside its charter to force people to accept printed paper in exchange for goods and services and is a criminal enterprise.

Earl, I think of the chances of slim and none, the odds of slim just improved by at least one man.

Tolerant1, I don't understand everything you write, but I synchronize with the feeling. Glad you appear to incline less of late to self-sacrifice and more to law making by the golden rule. BTW, don't count on them youngun's not shooting. Remember Waco.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 01:33 - ID#288369)
@EB....suggest same as Fagen/Becker.........done deal?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 01:50 - ID#153102)
@It Could Happen
Gold "crashing" to the neighborhood of $280 would put an end to Guru's touting gold and gold stocks on Nighly Business. Gold would be in a channel, technically, not a trend. Just because you want peace is no reason for USG to stop making war.

The IMF just warned against inflation danger in US. Here is cover for the Federal Reserve to raise rates at the May meeting. The PPT can correct the market and the talking heads can still think they understand what's going on.

After that, the mania overcomes its initial trepidation of interest rates and rebounds, the dollar rises, and gold rises. Financial Apocalypse in the Fall ? It could happen.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 01:56 - ID#347235)
@ Spock
64 Kennedy Halves Listed in coin world depending on condition between 3-7 dollars, no riches there.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 02:00 - ID#22882)
Talkin down the $12.1 billion February Trade Deficit and WHAT ABOUT TO BIG TO FAIL DOCTRINE?
Citicorp was selling for less than $8 in the last half of 1991 and look at its price now. Methinks that the manipulation of interest rates saved the buggers then at savers expense.
If one of the parties announce some bad news in the near to intermediate future; TO BIG TO FAIL will COST US DEARLY and even send the new Citigroup to a still higher price.
I just love these manipulations

(Sat Apr 18 1998 02:05 - ID#255151)
This Day in History

Albert Einstein died, Zimbabwe was born, and Paul Revere shouted his famous warning, "The British are coming! The British are coming!"

(Sat Apr 18 1998 02:24 - ID#153102)
I believe a member bank can assign a security agreement to the Federal Reserve and receive credits. If a problematic derivatives contract is qualified as a security agreement and is assigned, the Federal Reserve can bailout banks without the embarassment of a bank bailout and hearings in Congress. They have corrected the legalities to evade another S&L like public booboo. The government is not as stoopid as people in general think; it learns from its mistakes.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 02:28 - ID#153102)
@auric I believe it was "Redcoats" as the colonists themselves were British.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 02:50 - ID#22956)
the easterners......up late?
TeddO and MikeS...'ello mates...and to down under....tip-o-cap.
go gold. love and!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 02:51 - ID#255151)
The Midnight Ride of Paul Revere
"On the Eighteenth of April in '75..."

John Disney__A
(Sat Apr 18 1998 03:23 - ID#24135)
"Just So Stories" .... Bishop Tutu and the Big Crocodile
For Brother Oris
A day or so ago you asked about PW Botha and the Truth
and Reconciliation Commission. Ill try to fill you in.
I personally believe ( but can in no way prove nor
document ) that at the time of negotiations between the
National Party Government and the ANC it was agreed
that nothing of the nature of the TRC would be established.
However, in my own view, to give Bishop Tutu some way
to make money and to keep in the the spotlight ( a thing
he badly needs ) the TRC was sold to everyone to provide
a "healing" process whereby all could face the "horror
of apartheid" along with that of ANC terrorism
and Blacks Whites Coloreds Indians Moslems would then
forgive one another and immediately become brothers
and sisters.
It was a first class stupid idea but politicians come
up with this sort of cr@p all the time.
PW Botha was not IN the negotiations and he seems
to feel that if FW DeKlerc wants to go to the TRC and
look like an idiot while Tutu wears purple robes and
weeps on TV thats his business but PW isnt having any
thank you very much.
By telling the TRC to shove it he has succeeded in
making them look quite silly ( not that anyone seems to
care much other than a few old farmers and some paid
Black demonstrators ) .
From the legal standpoint, Botha has been ordered to go
to the TRC and has refused. He will next have a civil
trial for his refusal to obey a court order. This will
take maybe 6 months.
He will then appeal the decision if found guilty.
This may take another year. The TRC will have been
disbanded long before that mainly because no one shows
any interest in it whatsoever plus the Afrikaners being
asked to testify are started to use the occasion as a
platform to blast the ANC government.
The TRC even offerred to hear Botha's testimony in
camera with no one in attendence and no press. He said
shove it Ill see you in court. He is 84 I believe and
just remarried a feisty looking woman of about 35.
No furthur comment.

John Disney__A
(Sat Apr 18 1998 03:26 - ID#24135)
.... Good One ..
For Mozel

Re your 02:28 ... very little gets through your position.
Your exactitude is appreciated

(Sat Apr 18 1998 04:28 - ID#153102)
Your appreciation is esteemed.

I enjoy your reports and other posts very much. The platinum market may have failout from Boris Y's trip to Japan, I think. The Japanese are mainly interested in getting islands back. I think maybe the Russians figure the Japanese will pay an outrageous price for platinum if they get islands with.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 04:34 - ID#255151)
John Disney

Here is a photo series on the Cape.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 05:06 - ID#255151)
U.S. Economic Bubble

Article from latest Economist

(Sat Apr 18 1998 05:36 - ID#39971)

(Sat Apr 18 1998 07:52 - ID#330175)
@ Cape Breton

(Sat Apr 18 1998 07:59 - ID#288369)

(Sat Apr 18 1998 08:05 - ID#403335)
RJ Come Back
Would like you to continue posting!

They say "Hell hath no furry like a woman scorned". WRONG.

A gold bug that has been told that gold might go down, would

make her look like Mary Poppins.

The Oldman took some "heat" on his initial posts, until he proved

his abilities. Take heed, and do likewise.

A test of the lows at 280 is not beyond reasonable expectations!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 08:05 - ID#33180)
Barrons article optimistic on gold price
The Commodities Corner column in Barrons this morning is bullish on gold. Frank Veneroso is quoted saying that gold is basing. The factors that drove gold down in the last year are ending: central bank gold sales, patriotic gold sales to boost foreign exhange in Korea, and Asian jewelers who reduced inventories during the deepressed times will have to restock soon. Tried to copy and past, but the format seems to prevent that today. You will need a subscription password to get in online at or wait for the printed hardcopy at the newsstand.

Five years ago, in 1993, it was a bullish Barrons article interviewing Richard Pomboy that really got the gold stock rally cooking. We are, in the week of April 20, now hitting a special time favorable for a gold rally according to Dan Ascani's forecast last fall ( 5 year cycle ) , Cyclist's postings here, and Mike Sheller's astrological excitement time for gold this week. Nothing is certain, but we have at least a good wind behind us this week to lend smoother sailing toward a gold recovery.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 08:18 - ID#238295)
Elf: Thanks for the bullish Barron's article! They are wrong, of course. RJ has given us the final word on the subject. Everything, absolutely everything indicates we are going down to $280 by June.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 08:20 - ID#31876)
Microsoft Begins to Confess Y2K Glitches - Win 95 Problems Supposed to be Minor

Mr. Mick
(Sat Apr 18 1998 08:20 - ID#345321)
Tolerant - what's an "aldente chubby"? I laughed my *ss off on that post...
you should be a writer.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 08:21 - ID#26793)
5,000 Japanese riot police required to keep protesters from Yeltsin-Hashimoto meeting.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 08:25 - ID#26793)
Massive Korean unionist rally to protest job layoffs today

Mr. Mick
(Sat Apr 18 1998 08:28 - ID#345321)
Donald - how can Japan give any financial aid to Russia.......
or any other country when they are in such deep financial doo-doo??!!
The mindset of the masses is too unrealistic to describe. When are people going to wake up? Even NBC news said last week via Erving R. Levin that if the US didn't count Social Security as income - which they do, even though it is not - our national debt would be $111 TRILLION.
Do the masses have ears to hear with?????

(Sat Apr 18 1998 08:28 - ID#228128)
EJ are you there?
Yes, what did you hear?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 08:29 - ID#26793)
U.S. industrial sector in weakest performance since 1991

(Sat Apr 18 1998 08:33 - ID#26793)
@Mr. Mick
I watched PBS Lehrer show last night. Pollster Andy Kohut says Americans want government to do more for them. Government should be bigger, more benefits, etc. No comment on how to pay for it.

Mr. Mick
(Sat Apr 18 1998 08:40 - ID#345321)
Smither's UK forecaster has neat graphic - Let's see if I can post it.......
never tried this before. Smithers.gif

Mr. Mick
(Sat Apr 18 1998 08:42 - ID#345321)
Donald - Andy is a communist.............
communism doesn't work. No financial incentive for Ivan to get out of bed and go to work every morning when big government will do everything for him. End of story.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 08:47 - ID#26793)
Canadian internet provider under investigation for right wing ties

Mr. Mick
(Sat Apr 18 1998 08:50 - ID#345321)
I think I got it this time................

(Sat Apr 18 1998 08:52 - ID#266105)
@Saturday morning

Auric - nice pix of Capetown area, bookmarded for a later look.

HepMeMoney_Hmm -- Tsk, tsk.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 08:54 - ID#26793)
Citicorp-Travelers merger. Deja vu 1929?

Mr. Mick
(Sat Apr 18 1998 08:56 - ID#345321)
Donald - sorry about my comment on the pollster -
I get incensed about people who expect a free lunch. Anyway, he may be right about Americans and their mentality. My point earlier was that slowly the word is getting out that big debts are being carried by the large economies of the world.
By the way, thanks for posting the news items.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 08:57 - ID#324266)
Mr. Mick
The gif has been sniffed! Nice one, thank you. Postings like this, mozel's and Donald's 8:47 are keeping me awake at night.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 08:58 - ID#254201)
The next two weeks are due or die for the metals. We should see hard downs across the complex before a new leg up begins. The magic number next Friday is a close on spot gold above 312 to break the downtrend. The XAU should find support between 80-78 any lower then that will find the metals in deeper trouble. For traders sell June gold on Mondays opening stop above Fridays highs objective 295 - 290, sell May silver at the Monday opening stop above Friday high objective 5.85-5.65. I'm short gold from 312, short silver from 6.26.short SnP from 1128.

Mr. Mick
(Sat Apr 18 1998 09:02 - ID#345321)
Forklift - I used to stay awake at night, but not any longer.....
just cover your financial butt, so to speak. Gotta go for now.........

(Sat Apr 18 1998 09:02 - ID#266105)
@Mr. Mick

Whatever one wishes to call this type of system, I prefer
western industrialized social welfare is very
efficient at producing old people the 27-nation OECD world over
( Japan included ) along with unfunded obligations thereto
composed of amounts of money that do not exist in any real
or rational world of numbers.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 09:05 - ID#259400)
Preacher, what do you see for the XAU 1 week, 4 weeks and 12 weeks out. Your comments have been extremely accurate and insightful. Are you an Elliott Wavist?
Crazy Bill

(Sat Apr 18 1998 09:12 - ID#287114)
The American declaration of independance states that " all men are created equal. The Socialists say " all men are to be kept equal" .

(Sat Apr 18 1998 09:33 - ID#286199)
Barron's article
New E-bullion-ence? Gold's slump may be over

By Cheryl Strauss Einhorn

Despite the rise in the equities market and the U.S. dollar, gold prices have begun to move higher. In fact, while gold prices are up nearly 7% this year, they've gained 5% in just the past month.

Is the slump over? Yes, says Frank Veneroso, a gold consultant who runs a company by his own name in Summit, New Jersey. "We're basing now. I'd recommend buying the dips." He expects gold to trade between $290 and $315 this year. It currently commands $308 an ounce.

Even gold producers are turning less bearish. Whereas they had been active buyers of put options, that market has nearly dried up, meaning producers are no longer afraid of downside risk. Now traders say producers have been active sellers of calls, implying they believe the market is stabilizing here.

Too, in an unusual move, producers have been aggressively selling long-term -- say, two-, five- and 10-year -- volatility by writing calls, which produces premium income that helps offset production costs. Should gold surge, the downside pressure that typically results from producers seeking to lock in prices with forward sales may be limited if they have already hedged via this call writing. Why is sentiment changing? Because many of the pressures that plagued gold prices in 1997 have dissipated. Specifically, the gold market was hit last year by three adverse shocks: ongoing central-bank gold sales as European nations readied their economies to meet the entry requirements for economic and monetary union ( EMU ) ; forward sales by gold producers and short sales by speculators who anticipated continued central-bank gold sales; and the Asian financial crisis. The latter hurt gold in three ways: It depressed jewelry demand, caused commercial inventories to be liquidated and forced investors to sell to obtain liquidity.

Now, however, much of the official gold sales by central banks could be ending. In May, the new European Central Bank is expected to set the level of gold reserves when the composition of the euro is formally announced. In fact, two major European central bankers, one from Belgium and one from Italy, recently indicated that the ECB could hold 30% of its reserves in the yellow metal.

Moreover, while EMU will not formally start until next year, the French and Germans have indicated that a high level of reserves will be needed to maintain confidence in the euro. Comments from these two nations are particularly important to the gold market, in part because both the French and German central banks hold significant gold reserves but neither has been among the banks that have sold gold in the past.

Thus, once the reserve level is set in May, although European central-bank gold sales may continue by law, they may stop as these nations try to avoid disruptions to the market. This is an important point; gold sales after May could cause political problems by undermining confidence in the euro. Upshot? Sentiment should be less bearish and reduce producer and speculative short sales.

"There have been so many false starts in this market," says Jean-Marie Eveillard, manager of the SoGen Gold Fund. "But a month from now, central-bank selling could be over for the next few years and the fear associated with such sales will subside."

As for the Asian crisis, two of its three depressants on the market are ending. For instance, analysts estimate that Asian jewelry fabricators keep twice the amount of gold in inventory than they sell. This is done in part because of the way gold items are sold, namely by display. That is much higher than the average 0.6:1 inventory-to-sales ratio of all goods sold in the U.S.economy. Hence, as Asian sales fell, these commercial gold users cut their inventory to keep this 2:1 ratio constant, resulting in huge liquidations. This is largely over.

Further, as the Asian crisis worsened, there were large government-led campaigns encouraging patriotic gold sales by citizens to obtain needed foreign exchange. The Koreans, in particular, led such an effort. This ended in March.

The last leg of the Asian depressants-end-use demand for jewelry and coins -- remains grim. In 1996,Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand represented 10% of global demand. Now, however, it will take time for these important consumers to return to gold. In total,though,these three adverse shocks to the gold market are nearly over. With fewer European central-bank gold sales, producers and speculators will have less incentive to sell too. And if much of the Asian shock has indeed run its course, the market outlook is improving. Says Veneroso: "We expect the gold market to move sideways until this last tranche of EMU-related selling is over. After that the market should significantly rally."

(Sat Apr 18 1998 09:43 - ID#45173)
@IDT: Y2K news from the front lines
Spent some time on the road last week doing my thing, selling software that corporations use in project management, including Y2K projects. Visited with world's largest telecommunications company, the world's largest payroll processing company, the third largest brokerage company in the U.S., and flew home next to a VP at a risk management consulting firm based in NYC.

The net of it is that some of these companies started Y2K work over 5 years ago and have made a lot of progress. A set of file cabinets in the hallway across from my contact's office at one company is topped with over 80 5in. thick binders full of Y2K fix documentation, giving a sense of the scale of the effort. This particular group was responsible only for internal IT systems, not the larger and more complex systems that support their customers. As far along as they are, they cannot tell you with certainty that they will have enough work done in time to prevent significant interruptions of their operations.

Other companies I visited have done next to nothing, and are only now assembling teams to begin evaluation work soon -- thus my sales opportunity. A technical manager of one company confided that he was "scared to death" because while his company was well along and near completion of Y2K bug fixing, little had been done by several third party vendors to fix Y2K bugs and they rely more on third parties than on their own software for key operations systems. He said that his company was spending a lot on training executives on how to behave to protect the company from lawsuits. Executives are required to go to seminars sponsored by the HR deptartment where they are trained on how to limit liabilities and how to repond in the event ( eventuality? ) of a lawsuit. He said the seminar opened with the consultant telling them that hotel conference rooms across the nation were packed with lawyers listening to speakers explain how to conduct a lawsuit against companies like his. That's how we do it here in the U.S.A.

The risk managment VP said she felt that most Wall Street firms were well along and had taken the Y2K matter seriously and invested enough resources to get the job done. She was less optimistic about banks, however. They are more technologically backward and famous for resisting help from the outside.

That's all for now.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 09:47 - ID#286199)
M3 money supply continues to grow
As of April 6, the M3 ( seasonally adjusted ) number was 5572.9 ( billions ) compared to one year ago when the number was 5032.4. This is a change of more than 10%. The U.S. is growing it's money supply at double digit rates now. The short-term for gold may be bleak ( 280 by June ) , but it appears to me that inflation is inevitable and that is long-term bullish for all commodities.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 09:52 - ID#288369)

Spoonful and Witherspoon/Jay McShann albums are outrageous. Try 'em you'll like 'em. I'll now shut up re: musac..........way too much ambrosia last night.. GO GOLDBUGS ( watch out for that car!...whew!...that was CLOSE! )

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Sat Apr 18 1998 09:54 - ID#347196)
Speed (Barron's article)
Sounds good, but he ain't too bullish with that $315 stuff!! I prefer $335-$340 THIS YEAR at a minimum.. Lets hurry up and get that BIG bounce off'n XAU 79-80 and GIT THIS SHOW ON THE ROAD!!! See y'all Monday pm God willin' and the Creek don' rise; headed for God's country , mtns of Western NC fo' th' DURATION!

Regards; Mtn Bear

(Sat Apr 18 1998 10:04 - ID#288369)
@T#1.......Sorry.....I'll try it another way.............
Here are the Witherspoon albums that are nothing short of outrageous....if the url doesn't execute, follow the Jimmy Witherspoon ( artist ) thread to the "Spoonful" album. The "spoonful" and "witherspoon/jay mc shann" are guaranteed by studio ( only with fiat ) . Way too much last night ( ambrosia ) and this is it for awhile re: my music opinions. GO GOLDBUGS! ( Watch out for that car!....Whew!...That was CLOSE!...I'll Drive. ) Have a good one.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 10:18 - ID#427357)

We designed a special chart which depicts $100,000 investments in each security on January 1, 1998 to demonstrate that South African gold stocks have and will continue to OUT-PERFORM their North-American counter-parts. The chart will be updated at the close of every business-day. We owe our thx to CHEEZEHEAD, who motivated the creation of this chart. The securities are Durban Deep, Harmony Gold, Randgold & Exploration, Barrick Gold, Fidelity Select American Gold Fund, XAU Gold & Silver Index and Spot Gold.

The chart may be found at following location. To view, close space before the word " -eagle" in the URL before pasting it to your location finder.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 10:36 - ID#288369)
@brother vronsky.......
Cool new chart....are you doing a similar one for NA's? comparative. Or did I miss it? Your site looks GREAT!.....Fete' lives still in your heart? Si?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 10:38 - ID#427357)
GOLD TRIVIA 1970-1996

In cleaning out my desk the other day I ran across some Gold Market Trivia - which you might find interesting.

Based upon gold bull markets from 1970 through January 1996, there have been 15 short-term rallies in gold bullion - with average gains about +29.5%. The average rally lasted only about 2.5 months. However, there were three distinct clusters:

1. An average gain of 17.9% within 2.4 months.

2. An average gain of 40.1% within 2.6 months.

3. An average gain of 32.8% within 2.7 months.

Assuming gold has indeed put in a bottom - and if history repeats exactly - which it usually never does - we are then looking for the following gold prices per the above clusters. For our initial point, we will use The Privateer's breakout price of US$295 in the first week of April. See chart at:

Gold Targets based on historical rallies:

Per cluster #1 -- $348 by approximately June 20, 1998

Per cluster #2 -- $413 by approximately June 26, 1998

Per cluster #3 -- $392 by approximately July 1, 1998

HEY Who Knows..? In any case it would make for a nice summer ( :- )

P.S. - Historically, the XAU rises 3 to 5 TIMES more than gold in a legitimate precious metals bull market and the South African golds do EVEN BETTER!!!!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 10:40 - ID#35767)
Metals Next week
Looks like the fix is in to drive em down. The US 310 resitance has held and they will be in there next week. Silver had two days where it was way down then closed almost unchanged. If this happened in the stk mkt it would take off the next day. Not in silver on both following days it was under immediate pressure from the get go. Gold 295-300 and silver 5.70. Veneroso's article calling for a high of 315 this year can only generatwe short selling and hedging at these lervels. Get Short!!!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 10:41 - ID#240120)
Re: Barron's article
SPEED - thanks for your 09:33 posting of Barron's article.

The first section of the last paragraph of the Barron's article may however not be so accurate. Gold demand from Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand may bounce back much faster than Barron's seem to be suggesting. Indeed demand may even become stronger than pre Asian crisis levels. Afterall anyone in these countries who reads a newspaper will have noticed the price of Gold soar as their local paper-currencies ( ruppiah, won, ringgit, baht ) collapsed. And anyone in these countries who was fortunate ( wise ) enough to actually own some gold will be quietly thanking their lucky stars. What would you rather have, a fat wad of Indonesian ruppiah or a few ounces of Gold stashed under your mattress ?

G o G o l d

(Sat Apr 18 1998 10:45 - ID#35767)
A small correction then onward and upward to 10K then the bear takes over.

silver plate
(Sat Apr 18 1998 10:55 - ID#234253)
vronsky - great chart but
a little biased. try putting SGOLY in there and see how it looks

Gusto Oro
(Sat Apr 18 1998 10:58 - ID#377235)
Silver & Gold direction...
ROR: Bull Roar!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 11:01 - ID#31868)
STUDIO_R - I thank you and live in a world wherein it is understood that
Natalie Merchant wrote and sang "These are the Days you'll Remember" after pillowing with you under the stars in the ultimate OK Coral...

Some folks are jest born blessed and lucky!!!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 11:10 - ID#426220)

GOLD RESERVES play an important role in determining the long-term market appreciation of gold mining shares. Following is a brief comparison of SOUTH AFRICAN ( SA ) gold reserves versus those of their counterparts in NORTH-AMERCIA ( N/A ) and AUSTRALIA ( AUS ) .

In the study posted at G-o-l-d-E-a-g-l-e ( GLOBAL GOLD COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ) , we analyzed COMPARABLE cross-sections of the three gold producing areas: North-America, Australia and South-Africa. Following are the stated results regarding reserves.

 Annual Gold Production - Average per company

.N/A produces 1.210 million ounces - ( 12 major producers )

.Aus produces 0.462 million ounces - ( 10 major producers )

.SA produces 0.870 million ounces - ( 13 major producers )

 Gold Reserves - Average per company

.N/A has 19.7 million ounces - ( 12 major producers )

.Aus has 4.6 million ounces - ( 10 major producers )

.SA has 38.8 million ounces - ( 1 3 major producers )

 Annual Production as a Per Cent of Reserves

.N/A production is equivalent to 6.1% of its total reserves

.Aus production is equivalent to 10.0% of its total reserves

.SA production is equivalent to 2.2% of its total reserves

The numbers here simply mean that South African companies possess vastly more gold reserves as its competitors across the "Big-Pond." Moreover, a lower annual production rate is INDEED A VERY POSITIVE FACTOR FOR THE LONG-TERM INVESTOR. The rationale for this assertion is the following.

For the sake of argument let's assume all areas continue to produce at the same annual rates, and that NO NEW RESERVES ARE ADDED. It is then rather evident that the South African mines will continue to produce gold, long after its brethren have shut-down their mines for lack of reserves.

-..N/A at 6.1% annual production of total reserves will exhaust deposits in 16.4 years

-..Aus at 10.0% annual production of total reserves will exhaust deposits in 10.0 years

-..SA at 2.2% annual production of total reserves will exhaust deposits in 45.4 years

South African production will far outlast its counterparts who have CONSIDERABLY LESS RESERVES. For N/A mining companies to prolong their gold producing lives, they must necessarily acquire through acquisition and/or merger the SA mines, LITERALLY PREGNANT WITH GOLD RESERVES

Consequently, QUANTITY OF RESERVES is a cardinal facto in a comparative analysis of similar companies in each area -- and therefore of paramount concern to a prudent investor, especially institutional investors who are necessarily long-term oriented - and who are always seeking intrinsic value ( like a Warren Buffett ) .


(Sat Apr 18 1998 11:17 - ID#411112)
Bart sorry about this but its a cool forum as well have been lurking there for a while
it has nothing to do with gold,its politics from a conservative point of view,the funny thing sometimes on Kitco we get flamed for political posting,there they get flamed for talking about gold.....go figure

(Sat Apr 18 1998 11:17 - ID#31868)
Mr. Mick - Sir, first and foremost my best wishes to you and
yours. Candle lit, stick of cense wafting.


(Sat Apr 18 1998 11:18 - ID#31868)
sam - 11:01 to the Man from STUDIO_R
two Rs in corral, I am still jest getting ridiculous under control!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 11:23 - ID#288369)
@T#1...that was a beautiful thought.....Natalie
M. or Cole....ohmy. You...a writer?....indeed. Regarding blessings, I am eternally indebted to so many...and I am a lucky guy. GO GOLDBUGS.... ( I think I succeeded in getting the prez. of Oppenheim Co., investment banker, to buy a bunch of Harmony and physical for mucho accts. last night...we'll see ) .

(Sat Apr 18 1998 11:26 - ID#426220)
Return of the Echo from Johannesburg

There is no doubt I will be bombarded with Grammarians blasting the apparent

redundancy of my title. Frankly, don't give a damn, because it is used for emphasis

to continue to harp and carp the assertion that in gold's next bull market, the South

African golds will far out glitter the North-American and Australian precious metals

stocks -- as they so often have done in the past.

Following is yet more proof of my statement - the venerable source is the

December 1994 issue of the Gold Newsletter, known internationally as procurer of

reliable and timely information on gold stocks. The numbers speak loudly and

clearly that South African golds have historically demonstrated more intrinsic value

than their international brethren across the 'Big Pond.' Here are the data from the

1994Gold Newsletter.

R E G I O N..Market Cap/..Price/EarningsDividend

......................................Reserve Oz.RatioYield

North-America$241. 52X....0.6%

Australia....... $36743X..1.0%

South Africa...... $26.18X....42.0%

South African Golds Results vs the XAU in the 1993 Bull Market -

Data from Gold Newsletter:

XAU appreciated about 118%

In South Africa 28 of 43 gold stocks were up more than 200%

In South Africa 6 of 43 gold stocks were up more than 500%

In South Africa 3 of 43 gold stocks were up more than 1,000%

In South Africa Western Areas was up 3,417%

In South Africa Linden was up 6,482%

and in 1998?

R E G I O N..Market Cap/

...................................Reserve Oz


Australia........ $172

South Africa......... $12

ERGO Return of the Echo from Johannesburg

(Sat Apr 18 1998 11:32 - ID#230244)
The TSE is spending 27 million and now installing a new computer system.It will be up & running by the end od this year.Statistic Canada says that Canadian corp. are spending 12 billion $ to upgrade their systems to be Y2K compliant. Some examples Air Canada in 97/98 40 million
the Bank of Montreal 120m. I receive 1/2 a dozen annual report most are being pro active will update later. I still beleive that serious corp. will be compliant by 2000.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 11:36 - ID#227238)
Robnoel: Blessings on you my son, for posting that URL. "The enemy of my enemy is my friend." ..... Looks interesting.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 11:37 - ID#31868)
STUDIO_R - Hmmmmmmmmmmmm
Jelly-Roll-Morton/SONG - Dying for Beer, ahchachacha, Starts out Don't you leave me here...

(Sat Apr 18 1998 11:42 - ID#227238)
Running out in front???
Studio R: I get the impression that your range of acquaintances runs to the eclectic. Musicians to investment bankers. That's farting in some tight circles, Amigo. ..... Go Studio R and HGMCY.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 11:44 - ID#31868)
Deaf ears -
Statistics use innovative dexterity,
nimbly sashay side to side, skulk
near intersections, court
the limelight sporadically, flash
their deductions on a frail trapeze,
huddle with yesterdays dead
news too late, having flaunted
their educated conclusions too
soon. Collectively, they present
an elastic voice.
They pay
attention who thrive
on bewilderment, watch the elected
manipulate credulity, passive,
deserving what sticks
in their craws.
They fleer
against ostensible facts who do not
possess the tools of rational opinion
yet gullibly swallow advertisements,
believing they choose their purchases.

What lurks in an alley, hoping
to hide, lies like a mat on a dais.
Ill-informed braggarts trip over their own
feet when they verbalize.

Its not good enough to be against
everything thats spat at us
or spoonfed with honey, declaimed
from pulpit or rostrum.

Theres much to be said for brick
walls free of acoustical properties, well
pointed, separating both
sides of the fence, crumbling perhaps
in due course, division no longer needed
and differences forgotten by time.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 11:45 - ID#288369)
@T#1....Jelly Roll ("I invented jazz") Morton............

(Sat Apr 18 1998 11:53 - ID#288369)
@Earl.....I am a collector.......
And yet the only collection I care about is my "friends". They all cut me a bunch of slack...'cause I am soulman....not Danny Ackroyd. Man, you and mozel are cuttin' a wide swath. Bad to the bone, Earl.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 11:53 - ID#31868)
Namaste' May you live forever and the last voice you hear be that of a loved one. From Frankie S.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 12:00 - ID#288369)
@T#1....deaf ears......
Who wrote that? usted? I marvel.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 12:04 - ID#23941)
Could you please send me your email address so I can send you a spreadsheet on Aussie gold reserves.

My email is

(Sat Apr 18 1998 12:12 - ID#254112)
@mozel,cherokee,auric: The FED and my sense for the Greatness of the
American Spirit, which once upon a time was able to formulate laws which seem to have today only the propaganda purpose of giving the world the illusion of a free country...

Thank you very much for your response ( 00.24 & later ) . Please be patient with me. Yes, I do not always understand what you want to express. I am European. I was reading many books about the FED system during the past year and I understand how the FED creates money out of thin air ( based on debt, which economists call "demand based" ) . But I couldn't find an answer to my question:
How does the benefit of the created money get into the hands of the banksters?
Please tolerate that the answer to this question means so much to me even though you seem to think it is not worth to even ask such a question.

Now you are giving me three answers of which I think I start to understand two, the second and the third. But, PLEASE!, I must ask you to confirm my understanding which I try to express in my own words further down. I think you have incredible knowledge about the American financial and banking system and about the history of the laws which were made to shape it. You seem to have the answers I'm striving for so hard for such a long time and you seem not to have a feeling for how much I treasure your knowledge. So please don't tell me anymore that "it's a frigging waste of time" to try to understand the Fed, and any detailed aspect of it! In my view, it is worth pure gold! Please tolerate this! And please treasure your own incredible knowledge as I do!

I feel I have to convince you of how valuable your knowledge is to me!!!

So let me now tell you what I understand and what I don't, referring to your answer:
You said: "The Congress of the United States makes an appropriation at the Governor of the Fund, presently Robert Rubin."
( I don't understand this at all. What Fund? Why should the Congress have any intrest to get funds from the New York FED into the hands of private bankers? It sounds as if Rubin requests from the Congress to make an appropriation so that the New York FED can shovel FRNs into the jaws of private bankers. That sounds so wild to me that I cannot believe that this is what happens. I just cannot believe what I'm reading. So, my conclusion is that I do not understand what you are saying. Again, please be patient with me! )

Second, you wrote: "...Or the New York Federal Reserve Bank exchanges Treasury proceeds in FRN for Yen with the Bank of Japan or another party."
( I understand this, but isn't this like buying any kind of foreign currency? Can the New York Federal Reserve Bank also buy foreign currency or other kind of papers for the exchange of FRNs at any arbitrary price, for instance from the J.P. Morgan bank or from the Chevy Chase bank.
Why donsn't the NY-FRB just transfer funds to private banks? Could they do that? )
Third, you wrote: "..Or an international bank which is also a member of the Federal Reserve System assigns a security agreement to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, receives FRN of the face value of the security agreement, and purchases Treasury Bill or Bond with them."
( I think I understand this. WOW! Are the security agreements of any consequence in the future or is this just a kind of paper justification to transfer money for nothing? ) .

Please let me thank you in advance for taking the time and patience to educate me.

Cherokee: I wanted to thank you for pointing me to the web page about the New One World Order ( from Sat Apr 18 1998 00:15 ) .
I put the address into my Bookmarks.

Auric: I wanted to thank you for the poem: The Midnight Ride of Paul Revere. I was very moved reading it. It told me a lot about the great American spirit which has almost completely vanished.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sat Apr 18 1998 12:17 - ID#227238)
Alberich: Please continue asking those questions. We all benefit.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 12:17 - ID#31868)
STUDIO_R - that which is wretched, lovely and I am born of Mother...let it be stated that all the poems placed here are not hers however...she is brittle and meaner than a wolverine on acid, hanging in the Island that is Long, and she trains daily awaiting the New Foundland infestation.

I have sent an army of three year olds to cut the forests for the creation of TED'S transom, aye matey, Long Island is ours and let the Kitco Party begin.

Louie and Janet can kiss our collective ass, meant soley for the pigeons who mistake themselves for those in charge...

Yaughing, I am yaughing...........................

(Sat Apr 18 1998 12:26 - ID#320136)
ALL: PLEASE NOTE, following is part of 2nd paragraph of Einhorn's article in Barron's...

"We're basing now. I'd recommend buying the dips." He expects gold to trade between $290 and $315 this year. It currently commands $308 an ounce.

THIS DOESN'T MAKE SENSE!!! 290 - 315??? This year???? Please comment on this. Sounds like a GROSS error. Perhaps it should read 290 - 415??

Would appreciate all of your attention to this important and seemingly blatant distortion.

Thank you.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 12:26 - ID#227238)
For the record, my one and only granddaughter is one year old today. The party beckons. Failure to Repair, entails sanctions. ..... Mainly a missed opportunity to make her laugh.

Additional hysteria of the political kind will have await a less kind and gentle moment. .... Later duuuuuudes 'n dudess's.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 12:28 - ID#227238)
Lou Jan: It's known as equivocation or CYA.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 12:28 - ID#288369)
@my tension applied to the strings' tension....and then
the instrument which can translate the soul's electricity begins to bite my lips....'tis time to practice....BBL

(Sat Apr 18 1998 12:32 - ID#288369)
@Earl...come see the softer side of .....
earl....first things first, huh? have a big laugh.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 12:40 - ID#22956)
....before cutting up some bouys....
Copper - Yes. It is a metal. Is it precious? For those that go long. Yes. When, pray tell? Now. Yes. MikeS. We will have liftoff. Finally. Damn rhinos. Yes. Go copper. Uh Huh. Oh My. Away.


I will be gone for a time....Yes ( ! ) . kill me man. ;- ) Side splittin, killin-me, rof. Yes. off to fed-ex to get me mountie....thanx for a great site. Hope my 'contribution' helped.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 12:43 - ID#286230)
Vronsky: I don't know if your redundant but you have me convinced.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 12:44 - ID#320136)
Further to Barron's article
Earl, except for that very low-ball price prediction, the entire article is overall very bullish. It seems really out of whack. How could investors possibly be attracted to an investment vehicle such as gold, if mid-range predictions ( year end ) have a optimum price range of $315? Why would Veneroso aim to equivocate, when this article is attempting to reveal the very positives of gold from this point onward?

ps. CYA, no comprendo

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sat Apr 18 1998 12:58 - ID#384350)
Harry Schultz Letter

Echoes a lot of what has been posted here: Due to jitters, over both unproven Euro And Year 2K, will see some positioning in Gold.
EU CB deadline for gold selling pre-Euro currency start is May '98.
Western Mining closed out a large hedge position.
Possibility for short squeeze continues.
Says one should always have a modest core gold position, but not big Yet. Sees possible change in trend but awaits confirmation. "Heroes don't get paid. Wait til the hero stage is past. I'll be the first to trumpet it."

"Gold is the world's single currency."

(Sat Apr 18 1998 13:09 - ID#344308)

the peopleo have met the precipice...and they are the one.

compaq has lower than expected earnings...and their stock
rises...the frenzy is at hand...we are witness to, and a
part of......the greatest show on earth.

the players have changed from 69 years ago....


(Sat Apr 18 1998 13:37 - ID#231337)
Gold ...... Questions
I am new user of this site and have found it and the other Gold sites very valuable. They tend to confirm my believe in the fragility of the current monetary system, and to be especially wary of the American Dollar and the over inflated equity market. I must add that this has cost me huge amounts of not only lost opportunity, but in fact real losses. Hopefully the end justifies the journey. But at the same time as the argument for a gold based system ( or at least a partial gold based system ) goes on in at least this forum, the current system churns on and on with no real end other than a potential disaster as its conclusion. There does not appear to be a consistent and well articulated argument that would help steer a more rational course. I would appreciate responses to my questions that would help me to better understand whats happening in this strange environment. So here are but a few of my questions.

I live in Canada, a country with a weak currency and it has sold most of its gold reserve. Perhaps the thinking of those in power is that if Canada had to nationalize the gold industry, it could do so to get the gold needed to maintain a strong currency ( this is a socialist country if you look closely ) . But at the same time, my understanding is that Germany for example has a substantial Gold reserve, and the DM is weakening as we speak ( at least relative to the US$ ) ! If Gold is so necessary to maintain a strong currency, why the same outcome from two very different models?

Why has it taken so long for the Europeans, Mid East oil suppliers and the Asians to react to the abusive practices of the US$? Could it be that the lure of their goods flowing into the US too difficult to give up, which would happen if monetary equality were to be achieved? I sense that is the case in Canada. Constantly one hears the argument that our cheap $ allows us to sell goods at an advantage to American suppliers, and that the low dollar is actually an advantage that should be retained!

Greenspan in his early life was a strong proponent of a gold backed currency. What happened?

The Gold Industry seems to be short sighted and poorly organized as an industry. En example of this is the forward selling to meet the current need for stockholder returns. But for an industry that has gold at its heart and around which stability and long term thinking should be the hallmark, why such a poor, or at least ill defined long term strategy?

On this forum there is a large variance in what is believed to be the future of gold, in price and strategic value. Much of it is wishful thinking, much is positional based upon the comment coming from a short or long seller ( you can pick them out, and the biases are sometimes poorly disguised ) . But just within the last week, the predictions for the price of gold in the short term are as low as $295, and as high as $450 or more for this year. Last fall the commentaries were that Gold in 1998 would reach even $3000!! Very large discrepancies indeed.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 13:58 - ID#57232)
Frank Veneroso post
EJ: Thanks for your 9:43 about Frank Veneroso. His recommendation is buy the dips -- and that gold might go to $315 or so this year. This makes alot more sense than the 'buy gold with both hands' approach. I have been burned too many times in the last 1 1/2 years chasing vanishing gold rallies in a bear market to put all of my assets in gold at this point.

The gold markets are not going to reverse 'on a dime' coming out of a 2 year bear -- we will have our bottom for some time, with a gradual rise, until significant bullish news surfaces. So -- keep your powder dry! I think the slow 'buy on dips' approach is the best way -- for now. As I recall this is what Old Gold has been saying - am I right, Old Gold? I locked in 10% short term gold stock profits, and am awaiting the next dip with about 15% of liquid assets in gold/gold stocks.

One piece of good news is that our short/intermediate term gold/gold stock rally is about 4 months duration now. This is longer than any rally of this type for nearly two years. I will be very pleased if we do not dip below this point. Another piece of good news is the Silver 'clash of the Titans' reported by D.A. Given that silver sales of nearly 100 million ounces could not crush the silver price, I can't imagine our silver bear will last much longer. If silver rallies strongly, gold may be pulled along as well.

We must still be on the lookout for bearish news that might knock gold back down to its lows -- a Japanese, South American ( or Indian? ) market meltdown. Fortunately Venezuela can't do any damage -- I'm pretty sure they sold all of their gold. The Japanese government might sell gold if things got really bad and they had dumped all of their dollars already. The Japanese people won't sell unless they are coerced. By this point the average Japanese is probably as distrustful of their government as the average Kitcoite. Personally I doubt that the Japanese leaders would move that close to the brink of oblivion. But -- the problem with brinksmanship is that you don't know when you have gone out too far on that limb, and the limb falls off.

Old Gold: You said some time you were looking for the new Veneroso teleconference post -- did you find it?

By the way, I think commodity prices are bottoming. Will be interesting to see what the El Nino does to the food prices this year. The tornado season has started in the MidWest with a big bang this year. The last really bad Tornado season in the MidWest was in the early 80's, about the time of another big El Nino. Don't remember whether food prices took off, and how long it took after the ElNino took hold.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 14:14 - ID#123280)
Alta gold



(Sat Apr 18 1998 14:15 - ID#26669)
ORCA_A turn back before its too late! Save Yourself!!!
Jes' kiddin' I expect that if you've found this place on your own you're old enough to take your own lumps and determine your own course of action in life and if not you ought to be. But be warned you're starting to sound like you have a beginning case of Gold Buggery. Which can lead to becoming as nuts as the rest of us. IMHO :^ )

Now, my bandwagon today is the concern over people really thinking they can predict the price of gold. There are even some very wise people who post here who believe they can do so and some of them even believe there is a rational or logical reason for the price to change. And from time to time I will read a bag of deep fried chicken livers and make a short term prediction myself. ( Little known theory that chicken entrails are the only true way to predict prices. :^ ) ) But I'm one of the very small minority who believe that gold prices may ( but not always ) oscillate in a chaotic manner in the way that systems in nature change. IMHO

I think that charting the price of gold gives about as much insight as charting the population of squirrels in a city park or the number of fish in a lake or the number of people drinking decaffinated coffee so that one can get ranges and possibilities but not exactitude. IMHO

Which is why ( other than my own basic poor luck in guessing outcomes ) I'm a long term investor still on speaking terms with the traders and others ( except for one whom I will not name ) , but not prone to risk my money on trying to pick the market. IMHO

Also, why I weigh my own portfolio heavily with conservative stocks and bonds and buy gold related investments with money not needed for the rent. And who knows, if the men from Mars give us the recipe for the fountain of youth and it requires gold then I won't get as rich as some of the other bugs but I'll have more than the average Joe on the street. Hope this helped. IMHO

(Sat Apr 18 1998 14:39 - ID#201238)
hi orca, welcome back
Some of us have been on this site so long that we see old friends appearing as new ones!

Crystal Ball
(Sat Apr 18 1998 14:40 - ID#342376)
@ The FWIW Department
A short term bounce in XAU ( to 88 or thereabouts ) and ABX ( to 22.5 or so ) early next week will provide an excellent opportunity to re-establish shorts or hedge your long positions in PM mining stocks with puts. ;- )

(Sat Apr 18 1998 14:44 - ID#266105)

Like you said.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 14:53 - ID#341189)
Rubin resignation rumor in US News

(Sat Apr 18 1998 14:58 - ID#26669)
2BR02B? re Thanks.
I know, I read it and it seemed a litle extreme. What I get for getting up at 4am to go fishing today then trying to write when I get home.

Mr. Mick
(Sat Apr 18 1998 15:16 - ID#345321)
2BRO2B - just got your message from this morning regarding
financial numbers. You are correct, they are so huge and astronical that no one can comprehend them any longer. Like Avogardro's number ( 6.023 x 10 to the 23rd power, that is, 23 0's on the end of the 3. )
Anyway, did you see the post on the size of the M3 money supply? over 5,500 Trillion, with a capital T.
This is unbelievable.
Over and out.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 15:17 - ID#252127)
What goes around comes around

Some time ago Mr. Mooney pointed out that prices for various items, auto's, shares, real-estate and the related PM's, etc., have all gone up while gold has gone nowhere. Sure we can attribute the PM rises due to uncertainty relative to supplies, but gold is itself in short supply and CB sales have to have a buyer and usually another CB, in fact there must be some happy buyers at these low prices.
Then we have the question of paper gold and a number of occurances that should have put some strong interst in the real phsical stuff, but nothing happened.
Doesn't anyone find this strange?
While the sale of gold in the troubled ASEAN nations is given as a reason for the dollars continued strenght relative to gold, my thinking says that most of the gold that came out still moves around in those nations. As for the S. Korean collection story, I cannot believe in the tooth fairy.

Mr. Mick
(Sat Apr 18 1998 15:18 - ID#345321)
All - what comes after "trillions"? Quadrillions? Gazillions? .......
bananafanafofillions????!!!!:- ) )

(Sat Apr 18 1998 15:18 - ID#238295)
buy the dips
JTF: Yes. I do think the buy the dips approach is the way to go. Massive secular bear markets do not turn on a dime. Those projecting huge gains in the near future probably will be disappointed. But those projecting huge gains over the next few years probably will be right on the money.

RJ: I repeat my offer to end our polemics.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 15:20 - ID#238295)
Mr. Mick: A $5.5 trillion money supply is no stranger than a $13 trillion stock market.

Mr. Mick
(Sat Apr 18 1998 15:22 - ID#345321)
OLD GOLD - No doubt. But wasn't the number 5,000 trillion?
I can't keep track of the zeros.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 15:25 - ID#227238)
Lou Jan: CYA? Cover Yer Ass.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 15:25 - ID#238295)
JTF: The Japanese have very little gold to sell. They are much more likely to buy than sell in my judgement.

The Canarc Resources web site first promised to post the FV conference call by April 8. Then by April 15. But it still ain't there. Does not inspire much confidence in this company.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 15:29 - ID#286230)
Jack: Until the man in the street wants to buy gold there will be no dramatic change in the price. When the usual players see the common man wanting to buy the price will rise and the current owners will sell.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 15:35 - ID#238295)
gold reserves and currencies
Orca: Gold reserves are just one of a number of factors that determine a currency's value. The key factor probably is international capital flows.

I view gold reserves more as a factor giving countries a certain degree of financial independence from the almighty greenback in a time of crisis. If a nation sees its fate as inextricably tied to the US dollar as is the case for Canada, there is no need for them to hold significant gold reserves. But nations desiring a degree of financial independence better hold plenty of the yellow stuff.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 15:42 - ID#238295)
In his conference call a few weeks ago FV projected that POG would reach the $350-360 area by year-end. I think the article misquotes him. He probably said he expects gold to trade in a $290-$315 range for the first half.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 15:48 - ID#318172)
Veneroso and Barron's
My suspicions exactly, Old Gold. There is definitely a misquote, and your impression would seem quite apt. A 2% increase in the price of gold at year end hardly heralds a turning bull.

Earl, by the way DBAP.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 15:49 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother John,

Thank you very much for your info.
Helped a lot to figure out this
commission thing, reminded me a little
about history of the early years of
the Soviet Union.

Hopefully, I'll talk to you again in
a week or so, taking off for a trip.

Monkee Person
(Sat Apr 18 1998 15:49 - ID#288105)
just one more point on ALTA
I thought it showed some savvy on someone's part when, I believe it was about a year and a half ago, they decided to lease properties to Barrick.

Maybe it's just me, but I was particularly impressed w/ that move.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 15:50 - ID#266105)
@Mr. Mick

That's a lot of money in M3. I wonder how money supply figures
are today given the workings of the global financial system and its
innovations and also the control over same by our institutions designed
to do that in former time.

For example, government agency debt issuance, largely mortgage
( Ginnie, Fannie ) is up 25-30% year over year last quarter, up some
850% since 1990 and, last quarter, exceeded the issuance of U.S.
Treasury securities by the Federal government. Is agency debt
created money? And if so, is it captured in money supply figures?
I honestly don't know. It certainly put a lot of facts on the
landscape in the form of houses and created money-like figures
in accounting programs.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 16:01 - ID#238295)
Lou: The author also may have thought FV said three fifteen when he actually said three fifty. Easy to get confused if someone is talking rapidly over the phone.

ROR ( WW ) You market projections are inconsistent. A stock bear ( as opposed to another correction ) is out of the question if gold is weak.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 16:06 - ID#190411)
@orca and OLDGOLD
My wierd opinion on kitco is as follows. I considered the SP500 to be a bad risk so, I converted ALL of my IRA to gold stocks, whether I or my ignorant broker had the slightest knowledge of the fundamentals of any of the companies that I had bought. I bought ABX, ( Ted's dog, and mine also ) ,RYO retromingent dog, TVX, AU, KGC, later Newmont and Euro Nevada. Some of these doggies, that are the object of derision among the All- Knowing on Wall Street, have done quite well.
It helps to buy in, by blind luck, at the bottom.
I wonder whether gold is a true money anymore. With the currency competition that, lately, Japan has entered, all bets are off until the bubble mania subsides.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 16:16 - ID#220325)
APH re-8:58 post
In case no one else has said it, THANK YOU!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 16:22 - ID#190411)
One of the things that you were mentioning in your explication on makin' money was your reference to -bear hatein' gold hatein' Bob Brinker.
Farfel*, as intelligent as he is, is doing some sour-grapes.
If he had had faith as do Brinker followers, he would have had many-times mo'money to buy gold. When it goes to "the moon", he could have been to Neptune. I still think that he is right, but; What is the time frame?
"Waitin' for the train" ( Jerry Lee )

(Sat Apr 18 1998 16:28 - ID#318172)
Old Gold
Just for the record, my I submitted a query to Barron's re the actual numbers, and am awaiting a response.

It goes to show you how such a low projection could be misinterpreted as bearish ( i.e. ROR's reaction to continue shorting gold ) . Especially, the non-bugs who are reading this new info will be misled by the mistaken info and obviously not be tickled by this new "bullish" outlook ( 2% increment in the price of gold by year end... ) Barron's readership is vast and hence this article could have gone a lot further in promoting what FV really wanted to project. Undoubtedly, there will be a correction in the upcoming issue, but unfortunately the article as a whole will have already been digested and forgotten by most, I would imagine.

In any event, the news of percentage of gold backing for the Euro coming up soon, and further fears and tension pertaining to western market breakdowns can only usher in ever increasing and positive articles of gold's new glittering appeal! Our time is quickly approaching.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 16:31 - ID#153102)
@Alberich the Dwarf
Sir, you humble me. I am your willing servant with apologetic heart. If it matters, the reason that I stated studying the Federal Reserve System was a waste of time was to save you from exploring a maze inside a cul de sac. It is the creator of the Creature of Jekyl Island that is primary, not the created. That creator is the United States Government. Now, when something is created, the creator has purposes. If you stay focused on the purposes for which the USG created the Creature of Jekyl Island, you will gain true understanding.

Among those powers granted to Congress in the Constitution are these:
2 To borrow money on the credit of the United States;
3 To regulate commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes;
4 To establish an uniform rule of Naturalization, and uniform laws on the subject of bankruptcies throughout the United States;
5 To coin money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign coin, and fix the Standard of weights and measures;
6 To provide for the punishment of counterfeiting the securities and current coin of the United States;

The Constitution also provided that "No State shall ... coin money, emit bills of credit, make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debt".

The desire of men in government is for power and the Federal Reserve System was created to evade these Constitutional limitations and prohibitions and to evade the limits imposed by sources of credit external to and independent of the government. The Federal Reserve System is the USG's created source of credit. By law, it cannot refuse a request from the government for credit. A source of unlimited credit is what was created at Jekyl Island.

The Banks that joined the Federal Reserve System had all the advantages that accrue to a bank handling government funds and making loans to a government. After 1865, it became increasingly apparent that the federal government could not pay its gold debt and, on the contrary, was increasing it. The choice for the bankers who were owed was the Federal Reserve System or default. Even so, the banks did not agree to the Federal Reserve System until government guaranteed another source of revenue, the income tax. The Federal Reserve Act and Income Tax were enacted in the same year, 1913. In fact, it is realistic to view the Federal Reserve Act as being enacted pursuant to Congress's power "To establish ... uniform laws on the subject of bankruptcies." They enacted a law to manage their own bankruptcy with their own creature. In the 1920's Congress borrowed more gold from the Federal Reserve System than had ever been mined. In 1929 lots of brokerages, banks, and the government itself had more liabilities than assets. In 1933 FDR ordered banks and citizens to deposit their bullion, certificates for gold, and coin gold in the Federal Reserve System in return for credits. The government reorganized in bankruptcy. Ostensibly, this was at the demand of the FRS under its contract rights under the Federal Reserve Act. But, it was FDR that wanted the gold really because he then swapped the deposited gold for Treasury paper and made the gold the backing for the international or trade dollar. At this point the Congress and President had effectively stolen through a charade of legal bankruptcy proceedings with the Federal Reserve System and through loans of gold from the Federal Reserve System, which it by law could not refuse, all the gold ever loaned to it from 1865 on. The only gold that escaped was gold hidden domestically and gold that was outside the country when the Executive Order was issued. Certain insider bankers in New York did profit from foreknowledge of this Executive Order. They repatriated gold after the devaluation of the international greenback and received double the bank credits for deposit of it as those who turned in gold before the devaluation. At this point silver coin still circulated as did silver redeemable certificates issued by the Treasury. Side by side circulated Federal Reserve Notes which stated they were redeemable for gold. This was true internationally, but not domestically. Though the Notes did not say so, the law did. On the face of the note, it appeared that the gold deposited still backed up these notes. All that actually backed them was the legal force of government: they were declared "legal tender" on their face. Throughout the 1930's the States enacted laws and entered into agreements with the federal so they could use these Notes in place of gold and silver coin and circumvent the Constitution. As it had done in the 1920's, Congress borrowed and spent throughout the 30's, 40's, 50's, & 60's always adding to its debt. In the 1960's silver was taken out of coin and silver certificates were withdrawn. And in 1971, the United States declared it would not honor the promise made on overseas notes for redemption in gold. The government again reorganized in bankruptcy. Every foreign government which had, in effect, loaned gold to the United States by accepting one of those notes for goods was robbed. The United States government had for the second time taken gold by fraud and backed the fraud up with force, which amounts to armed robbery. In the wake of this robbery and as an appeasement to the robbed, the United States entered into the Articles of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The Governor of the Fund is the Secretary of the Treasury, Rubin.

"The Congress of the United States makes an appropriation at the
Governor of the Fund, presently Robert Rubin."
( I don't understand this at all. What Fund? Why should the Congress
have any intrest to get funds from the New York FED into the hands of
private bankers? It sounds as if Rubin requests from the Congress to
make an appropriation so that the New York FED can shovel FRNs into the
jaws of private bankers. That sounds so wild to me that I cannot believe
that this is what happens. I just cannot believe what I'm reading. So,
my conclusion is that I do not understand what you are saying. Again,
please be patient with me! )

Congress appropriates funds to the Fund and the Bank. If the funds are not on account, they are borrowed from the creature of unlimited credit on demand, the Federal Reserve System. The funds go from the Fund and the Bank as loans to international bankers who loan them in turn. They also go to countries.

Second, you wrote: "...Or the New York Federal Reserve Bank exchanges
Treasury proceeds in FRN for Yen with the Bank of Japan or another
( I understand this, but isn't this like buying any kind of foreign
currency? Can the New York Federal Reserve Bank also buy foreign
currency or other kind of papers for the exchange of FRNs at any
arbitrary price, for instance from the J.P. Morgan bank or from the
Chevy Chase bank.
Why donsn't the NY-FRB just transfer funds to private banks? Could they
do that? )

Yes, the Fed makes overnight loans to member banks. Fed funds are available basically on demand. In fact, a member bank can borrow at the fed funds rate, take the borrowed funds and buy Treasuries paying a higher rate, and have a free income on the rate difference. The Fed can instruct a member bank to enter the FX market for currencies and buy or sell and provide it the funds to do the operations. In this way the fed can intervene without showing that it is intervening.

"..Or an international bank which is also a member of the Federal
Reserve System assigns a security agreement to the Federal Reserve Bank
of New York, receives FRN of the face value of the security agreement,
and purchases Treasury Bill or Bond with them."
( I think I understand this. WOW! Are the security agreements of any
consequence in the future or is this just a kind of paper justification
to transfer money for nothing? ) .

Yes, the security agreements are of consequence. In fact, I posted a while back a little known fact about them. These agreements are all governed by the federal Uniform Commercial Code. If the bank does not have to get the ORIGINAL back from the fed when the loan is discharged ( but stamps a duplicate as discharged and gives that to the lender ) , then the security agreement continues to count on the books as collateral for the bank. The Uniform Commercial Code and the banking regulations are exceedingly complex and what is legal and what is not is hard to find. But, basically, it all originates in the fraud of issuing a Note for Nothing and the Code and regulations legalize fraud. The Freemen figured this out and with liens on the bonds of judges to uphold their oath of office for security and a comptroller warrant as the instrument, they were working on paying off the national debt. They could not prove fraud because the Freemen were only doing what bankers do everyday. I don't think it is any stretch at all to infer that the Fed can accept derivatives contracts as collateral. It's fiat land. Does the USG need credit ? It just says to the Federal Reserve System, "Let it be; and it is." The only limit is the Congressionally authorized debt ceiling.

Now, the Americans invented these fiat games with double entry bookkeeping. They authored the international banking standards that they are exporting via the IMF and World Bank and via international law conventions and treaties. It is all for the purpose of having a Note for Nothing issued by a well armed bankrupt accepted at face value. Since Lincoln, the USG has put its survival and its interests above any obligation to anybody. I hope this is helpful in understanding why there is a USG War on Gold and the role played by its creature, the Federal Reserve System, in it.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 16:34 - ID#238295)
Weekly projections for the Dow Jones assuming the 1929 script is about to rerun. Note the forecast for a peak of 9500 NEXT WEEK.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 16:46 - ID#238295)
How manias end
Must reading for those playing the stock bull to the bitter end; certain they will be able to get out in time.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 17:18 - ID#316193)
I'm Proud of US NEWS For Trying to Bring The Truth About Clinton

(Sat Apr 18 1998 17:18 - ID#26793)
India critical of World Bank loan to Korea (I am not sure what he means. Anyone?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 17:29 - ID#31868)
That which might injure my family will die. Anything, anywhere, touch my family and I will KILL YOU...

Love the talk and conversation...the bastards know this...

touch my family and I will burn your grand mothers village...and crush her skull.........

I live on Long Island, the whole world knows it...attack me and babies know the real...and they will protect themselves...

Uncle Kevan is worth saving..........................

(Sat Apr 18 1998 17:30 - ID#153102)
I think he was miffed because his application for one of those World Bank welfare loans was denied and Korea got the money instead. I see World Bank pulling IMF chesnuts out of the fire with this loan. Could IMF go broke ?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 17:32 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Mr. Mick: $5,500 trillion? . . . I'm trying to grasp it . . . ( 1 ) carpet an American football field with one-dollar bills ( that'll take $531,054.0216 dollar bills ) . . . ( 2 ) build up the carpet one layer at a time with one-dollar bills until it is 695 miles thick ( assuming that the bills are no more densely packed than this ream of 20lb printer paper I've got here ) . . . ( 3 ) now you've got $5,500 trillion. . .

Hmmm, I still can't grasp it . . .

. . . Abyssinia . . . I've always got time for trivia. :- )

(Sat Apr 18 1998 17:43 - ID#316193)
Old Gold, Bill Fleckenstein is Indeed Interesting. Here is an Interview on PBS -

(Sat Apr 18 1998 17:46 - ID#26793)
We need SDRer to answer that one. If the member countries are required to make contributions in U.S. dollars I guess the IMF could go broke. They can't print those. Only we can do that. Congress has been dragging its feet and attaching abortion and IMF reform conditions to any future U.S. funding. If that continues the IMF is left to gold sales to raise money but that requires member approval. Germany has been leading European nation members against that option as I recall. As the world economy deteriorates loans already made by the IMF become less likely to be repaid. Mexico is suffering declining income from lower oil prices and is in serious debt to the IMF as one example.

I'm sort of thinking as I type and it seems the answer is: Yes! The IMF can go broke or at least become impotent.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 17:59 - ID#288100)
Canada's Banks combining
Royal and Montreal....TD & CIBC. They say they want to get bigger to be powers on the world stage. Who will bail them out, if they fail on the world stage? We see enough problems off shore, i.e.Asia, do we really want to be bailing out banks that screw up somewhere else? Cause in the end the taxpayer will be covering the domestic savings. The bigger something is the harder it falls. However the politicains here have been bought and paid for so......

(Sat Apr 18 1998 18:00 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Charts
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors

(Sat Apr 18 1998 18:00 - ID#45173)
@Donald: re India negative on IMF loan to Korea
Back when the IMF was formed after WWII the idea was that rich countries put in to help out poor countries ostensibly to help keep the world peaceful as well as make them good future markets for products. This business of bailing out rich countries that screwed up so as to prevent the world economy from turning turtle is not really in the IMF charter, as far as I understand it. India might then be excused wondering why a country that needs money to get its people out of poverty is passed over for a wealthy country that got itself into trouble with corrupt fiscal policies. My $.02

(Sat Apr 18 1998 18:05 - ID#330175)
* Go Tequilla*~~~~~~~~~~

(Sat Apr 18 1998 18:08 - ID#45173)
@Ted: Pedron? I like Mescal, Monte Alban
In fact, think I'll have one with you if you don't mind. Yes, I eat the worm.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 18:10 - ID#253153)
Now is the time to buy Gold Stocks
We are on the verge of the biggest bull market in Gold the world has ever seen. The bull market has begun when gold bottomed at $278 back in Nov 1997. We are on the verge of a deflationary collapse that will
usher in another great depression. Since the people have been educated to believe in financial miracles plus the ability of the government to solve social problems, the present disorders foreshadow a prolonged depression during which we may hope liquidity will be restored as it was in the thirties. We may also hope the government will not invite another war to get us out of the coming mess.As the world economy continues to contract as the result of the shortage of capital, as more political barriers
are thrown up against restoring it,and further destruction comes through defaults, political turmoil will develop. By then all investment should be in Gold. I do expect the stock market to top in the very near future.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 18:18 - ID#26793)
Thank you for that Bill Fleckenstein interview. I have already e.mailed it to some of my non-Kitco friends without comment. It speaks for itself.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 18:22 - ID#31876)
You're welcome. All of us owe you thousands of favors. Maybe
we can repay you, but I doubt it.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 18:22 - ID#26793)
A very good point. Thank you. Sort of "Bail out the Greedy, not the Needy" as their motto.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 18:39 - ID#31876)
There is a Bill Fleckenstein associated with Pan American Silver.
Could this be the same person we've just been talking about?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 18:41 - ID#286279)
Fleer, yaughing, great words. You get another gold star!:- )

Bully Beef
(Sat Apr 18 1998 18:47 - ID#259282)
Got liquored ...Got liquored up! Thats' what we say...LIQUORED!
Don't put all your eggs in one basket. We say that too. Also... Don't loose your balance. Whatever... don't lose it.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 19:07 - ID#330175)
EJ......and toooooo bad ya ain't,eh......
as it's a beautiful sunset on the North Atlantic....Got a fire ( that's spruce ya smell Sheller ) burnin in the background and things are pretty 'mellow' here....

(Sat Apr 18 1998 19:09 - ID#330175)
Bully Beef.....................and balance
could be an issue 'later-on',eh???....

(Sat Apr 18 1998 19:14 - ID#39828)
Australia prepares to pull down the curtains.
After dumping all its gold and buying 30 year bonds last year,
Australia prapares to close all ports. US boycotting Aussie
produce. The world on the verge of isolating Australia. Oh dear
looks like its time to buy a ticket and get out of here pronto.
Smart boys down here, whadaya reckon.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 19:18 - ID#60253)
Mr. Sharfin, I thank you for saving my posts. Now I ask you?

Please read these words and consider:

" What Is The Real Price Of Gold IN The Central Bank World?"

If we look back thru the writings of Another, we find an old post that says something to this effect, "You think I am a fool because I trade gold for thousands US$ an ounce". It was a strange statement, but stranger still that no one asked about this. In the very beginning of these "THOUGHTS", the point was offered that gold had increased "dramatically in value these past few years"! This thinking was offered, even as it's currency price was falling to new many year lows. I ask about it today, especially in light of the post of :

"Date: Fri Apr 17 1998 17:11 Aragorn III ( Some thoughts for A.Goose in regard to COMEX and G*O*L*D ) ID#212323"

It is indeed, a paper game Mr. Aragorn, but it is a game of "some advantage", if one can see clearly. The one that posts using SDRer, has shown many times how "Gold Value" is used in international trade. What cannot be seen is the value of gold in the "INTERBANK" world. Here is the realm of "true valuations" in paper currency terms. It is a real shocker for lesser eyes.

In this modern world, the current value of every asset is formed by a relationship of gold/currencies/oil. This cross relationship is the "very basis of our modern world banking system"!

Through this basis, all currencies are given value as the local government treasuries hold US$ as reserves. The US$ is given backing as it's government is guaranteed, that all crude oil, worldwide, will be settled in dollars. An oil reserve backing, if you will. And, the "value" that the "future supply of "currency traded "oil" imparts to the world economy, is guaranteed by an "INTERBANK paper gold MARKET" that values "physical bullion" in the Thousands!

I'll let Another explain:

But, how can this be, you ask? It is done, "right before your eyes" and we see it not! I ask you, if you have one ounce of gold, and sell it on the market for $300, it is worth $300, yes? Now, what if CB hold one ounce of gold, and sell it twenty times, that one ounce is now worth $6,000, no? The difference between you and CB? The persons that hold "interbank" IOU for gold, value it at the multiple of leases/sales made against reserves. This leverage, it is held for performance on bank part. The BIS, it force performance, on any economy! You ask Korea about gold, yes?

This is why oil can take a small amount of physical gold out of world supply, at current "freely traded", "managed prices", and hold it at a many times valuation. That is what gives this "new world gold market" much value in trade at high levels. Look even at your "Comex", and divide the daily volume by the "eligible stocks for delivery". That number ( perhaps three million ounces divided by 150,000 stocks, deliverable, times the spot close gives close, real world price of physical, $6,000. It follows close to paper trade on LBMA.

You see, "physical gold is of much greater value than public traders can move it for"! In your world, this cannot be, but it is, and will show for all to see in your time.

Gold is now being managed back to the $320 - $360 range. But, this few dollars of value is of little use, as forces are at work that will break $360! The CBs are loosing control. I write again in hour or so. We talk then, please.

Thank you

(Sat Apr 18 1998 19:26 - ID#45173)
@Ted Trees are just starting to sprout some leaves here on
the Northeast coast of the USA. Got up into the 70's. Did some mountain biking with a bud and now having a few shots of mescal with him and the missus. Mellow here as well. Glad you're enjoying yourself. Cheers.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 19:31 - ID#431263)
Many thanks for your most excellent and long-awaited post! I am completely flabbergasted at its implications! If what you are saying is true, gold is already being valued ( behind the scenes ) and yet upfront for all to see @ $6,000/oz. In time, we shall all see it, but I assume, by then, it will be too late! Yes? Is oil now at $15/barrel PLUS gold at 20x? Please explain how oil is currently valued in terms of gold. Please keep us here at Kitco informed about this new gold market and its implications for us who believe! Thank-you again and know that there are many here at this site who admire your posts and want to believe that what you are saying about this new gold market is really true! All we need are verifiable facts! Wiedersehen, mein Freund!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 19:32 - ID#330175)
EJ....................and the 70's.......
hell,I think ( duh ) we peaked @ about 50 so far in '98' darkness settles over a chilly North Atlantic~~~~~~

(Sat Apr 18 1998 19:38 - ID#45173)
@ANOTHER: Please explain what event you feel will change the
way gold is now accounted for so that the $ value becomes much higher? In short, why will things not just keep on going as they have? Thx.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 19:42 - ID#431263)
As I re-read your post, I am struck by the implication ( as I read it ) that the day is soon coming when oil will no longer be settled in the INTERBANK system in terms of the US Dollar, but perhaps in terms of the EURO, or some other world currency, perhaps even gold itself. If this is true, would this be the shock that would cause gold to be re-priced in dollar terms one time only and cause gold's value in US dollar terms to soar to its true INTERBANK valuation of $6,000 PLUS? Thank-you again, mein Herr!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 19:44 - ID#42365)
I have a question. i have gotten the general idea to buy bullion and not numismatics, by lurking here. What is the reason? wouldnt numismatics be worth more than bullion if another is correct? or in a raging bull?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 19:46 - ID#42365)
SHHH!!! your gonna give some shorts a heart attack! : )

(Sat Apr 18 1998 19:47 - ID#288369)
You may have mail. Yes?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 19:49 - ID#227238)
Mozel: Your opus at 16:31 was nothing short of magnificent. I cannot thank you enough for making the effort.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 19:51 - ID#431263)
If I read you correctly, the US dollar is currently on the oil standard and is therefore an oil-reserve currency. Should the ME oil cartel remove oil from this US dollar relationship, then the true inflation of the US dollar over the last 20 years, since the last oil shock, would be clearly revealed to the world by the US dollar price of gold soaring overnight to $6,000 PLUS. Yes? Please reply.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:00 - ID#45173)
G-Nutz: the value of a gold bullion coin is the value of
the gold in the coin, where gold bullion content ranges from 24K for a Panda to 22K for a sovereign. A numismatic coin is valued at bullion plus rarity + condition + demand. A short term rise in the bullion value of a numismatic gold coin is additive, e.g., you buy a numismatic coin for $800 when gold is at $300, your coin will be worth $900 if the bullion value of the coin increases to $400. Your net gain relative to the same investment in bullion is more or less the same. However, really high quality numismatic coins ( gold or otherwise ) tend to appreciate over time better than most investments. If as some suggest here, gold increases so much that the bullion value rises to a multiple of the numismatic value of your numismatic coin, then you've lost money.

At least this is how a gold numismatic collector pal I know explains it.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:00 - ID#431263)
What are the 'forces at work" that will now drive the price of physical gold in our world, the world of comex and the US dollar, past $360/oz to perhaps the $6,000 price of gold in the world of the INTERBANK trading system? Please!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:01 - ID#359316)
ANOTHER {Marhaba!}
Banks that trade paper gold, i.e. fractional reserve gold, rely on trust for their operation. If all claimants present their "certificates" for redemption in physical gold, the bank will be unable to comply and will close. If this occurs on a grand scale, could this perhaps result in the almighty dollar being devalued until the number of dollars exchangeable for gold matches the "fractional reserve" valuation of say $6000/oz? This could occur over a period of time, as the fractional reserve gold system breaks down?
Incidentally, it seems that more understanding may be obtained from your text by reading certain quotations "..." as underlining ( which, of course, is not possible under the constraints of this forum ) .

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:05 - ID#288369)
@Back to my old (redundant) question......
Does anyone know what happens when forty people have claim to the same ounce of gold?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:11 - ID#45173)
STUDIO.R What is the nature of their claim? Are they bidding
for it or so they all have equal claim under the law?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:11 - ID#227238)
Studio R: Generally, a fight breaks out. ...... : )

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:11 - ID#39828)
There seems to be an element of urgency in your post. Do you feel
that the time is know upon us where gold could start to trade with
volatility like never before.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:17 - ID#330175)
yo dude~~~~~~

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:20 - ID#317193)
Don't know but if I can talk the Mrs. into it I'll let you know. FND is 5/29/98 and LTD is 6/26/98 on the June K. Tom

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:20 - ID#401183)
Bullion or Numismatic?
I'm starting to waver and take the stand for numismatic over bullion with confiscation possibilities becoming an important issue/concern/worry! Anybody with some insight to my dilemma please set me on the right path!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:22 - ID#288369)
EJ...."paper" gold "trading" contracts versus physical gold available for delivery.

Earl.....a fiat fight.

The Answer: Thirty-nine owners have to settle for payment in "distressed" fiat ( could be a very high number ) .

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:23 - ID#252391)
Re: Fleckenstein
It is the same Flekenstein that is associated with Pam American Silver, a compnay whose high hopes are pegged on the development of a Russian Silver mine - and if you have a couple of dollars I have these beeds, too.

Fleckesstein is a great read and makes those of us under invested in the stock market feel a little better eating our sour grapes. But really, I wish I had never read Mr. F. has his pursuasion kept me out of equities at the break out over 8000 and out all the way up to DOW 9100 today. At some point, even if for no more than a few weeks he'll be right and the market will have gone down and that will give further greedence to his statments about the big lurking bear.

Bottom line: my net worth would have been significantly higher ( to say nothing about my spirits ) if I had never heard of, read, or given a minutes time to the thoughts of my F. Sooner or later, yes maybe it will rain, but followers of Mr. F. have missed alot of sunshine and have looked pretty foolish carrying their umbrellas every day...

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:28 - ID#317193)
HOOSIER-it's a guess!
The pre 1933's are a hedge against confiscation. If you truely believe the Gov't will confiscate you buy all pre 1933's. If you believe in no confiscation you buy few, if any. Someone very close to me is about 20% to 25% in pre 1933's as far as physical gold holdings. Tom

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:30 - ID#335190)
Only in USofA ? @ Also in Canada. Liberal-Conservative-NDP. ALL "CORPORATE" REPRESENTATIVE'S.
Citizens' Campaign for Clean Government

BOTH The Republican and The Democratic Parties are Corrupt !

Money is the cancer of politics. It changes well intentioned young candidates into solicitors who become bound to the sources of their solicitations. And the Special Interests understand this. That is why they "contributed" over $ 2 billion during the 1996 elections. Developers are buying special deals from local governments. Agriculture interests are buying votes that benefit their interests. Big polluting manufacturers are buying votes to weaken environmental laws. Profitable corporations from all fields of endeavor are buying votes to reduce their taxes and shift them to the backs of the general public.

Even after our so called "representatives" leave office they continue to receive money from Special Interests. In 1994, 25 of 91 retired members registered as lobbyists for Special Interests ! Both Democrats and Republicans accepted these lucrative positions around our nation's capitol. Others become consultants, and others accept highly paid positions with corporations who previously "contributed" to their campaigns.

1916....H.W. Loucks, The Great Conspiracy of the House of Morgan.
Loucks denounced the Federal Reserve Act. "In the Federal Reserve Law, they have wrested from the people and secured for themselves the constitutional power to issue money and regulate the value thereof."

@ page 31 "The House of Morgan is now in supreme control of our industry, commerce and political affairs. They are in complete control of the policy making of the Democratic, Republican and Progressive parties. The present extraordinary propaganda for "preparedness" is planned more for home coercion than for defense against foreign aggression."

1960...President Eisenhower acts to curb a rising deficit in the nation's balance of payments and a drain on U.S. gold reserves. He orders a reduction of government spending abroad November 16.

President Eisenhower warns against the "military-industrial-complex" that works to maintain high levels of spending for the defense establishment, but President-elect Kennedy has campaigned on a promise to close a phantom "missile gap" and will push through measures that increase military spending.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:32 - ID#31868)
My nephew stands before me, talking of suicide, I say and dimwit, such is dumb...

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:34 - ID#330175)

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:35 - ID#330175)
Tolerant......................and this gulp is for--------------

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:38 - ID#411112)
HOOSIER,The choice between bullion and numismatics,is no tougher than buying stock

say IBM today is round a $100 ( I really have no idea how much it is ) Berkshire Hathaway ( Warren Buffet ) to day is $50,000.00 which will rise faster some folks would say IBM because it is cheaper however I bet BH kills it, it is the same thing with bullion vs. numismatics people buy bullion because it is cheap and they think it will rise faster...the facts are numismatics have out performed gold on a regular basis......I will tell you this MS61-64 are really getting hard to get,while bullion has remained flat lately Saints and Libertys have gone up $ and demand,I don't want to use confiscation as the reason to buy,it's not......the day they come for my gun or gold will be a cold day in hell

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:42 - ID#335190)
Hi Ted. I do hope all is well. Also, sorry to hear you are leaving Canada.
All the Best, Take Care.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:48 - ID#330175)
Yup,all is well and-----------------------
Swans Island ain't toooo far away from N.S~~~~~

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:50 - ID#288369)
Don't be one of the poor thirty-nine peopleo....demand delivery will watch the stampede from the crest of a hill mounted upon your golden stallion.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:52 - ID#317193)
Now this is a disagreement in philosophy I'd like to see more of at Kitco. To us non-coin traders the issue is confiscation. Ignorance may be bliss. Tom

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:52 - ID#60253)

The current "paper gold market" is not a physical gold trading arena, as many here have observed and discussed. Truly, in every sense, it is a "currency market" as contracts are settled in the prevailing "currency values" of gold. It is through this process, that gold is purchased "as a stated value in currency terms", not in physical terms. It is known, that a switch to trading of gold to "physical terms" of the same volume as today, would not only bring a huge revaluation in price, it would also destroy the market. The large dealers of today, could not raise the reserves needed to trade a physical market of many thousands an ounce! It is this "possible switch" to "physical trading" that would drastically devalue all currencies, including oil, that much worries the CBs.

The US$ is soon to become a " regular paper currency"! To this end, holders of US dollars and US$ assets, must make a decision that will impact all assets, worldwide! To this end, assets will move to "physical gold " and cash dollars" first, driving up the dollar against all currencies. Then the dollar will be sold as it is deployed into real things.

This change will occur before 2000, as it is beginning now, where no one can see!

As Another would say, "we watch this new gold market, together, yes", Yes!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:55 - ID#227238)
Yo Teddo: Spent the PM doing that veggie thing. Gettin' the good earth ready for plantin'. Put down 50 sacks of that rich stuff often confused with the Kitco Discussion Group. Could put in another 100 and it would disappear in a flash. ..... Need a trip to OKC and an invite to Studio R's feedlot. Bet that stuff is cheaper there. Hmmmm?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:55 - ID#234218)
@ Hoosier RE: confiscation
The safety factor of pre-1933 coins, is also assuming that the same rules will apply this go around. Should it come to that. My gut feel is that if confiscation becomes reality, no gold will be safe. As I said, just my gut instinct.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 20:57 - ID#330175)
Earl.................and Kelp
Whatta fertilizer~~~~beats sh!t!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:00 - ID#288369)
@Earl......the smell of pie...........
I am known as the Prince of Poop....Duke of Dung...Sheik of Sh-t......King of Krap....your free bags await your arrival........shooooowweeeeeeeeee.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:02 - ID#31868)
Darkness is for people that sleep on designer sheets.!!!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:03 - ID#34194)
I'm with Snowball in thinking that any future confiscation
would be ruthless.
Both my grandparents worked in banks during the
early stages of the Great Depression and they have told us
that the turning in of the gold was pretty civilized, with
generally sensible understanding and trust by all parties:
Treasury agents, bank officials and citizens.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:04 - ID#341189)
Questions: Do you have a belief about whether the euro will be attractive to oil producers as an oil currency? If the price of gold in dollars begins to rise and the dollar also strengthens against other currencies, as you suggest, will not this accerate the purchase of gold by holders of other currencies?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:12 - ID#401183)
Thank you for your invaluable insight, one and all!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:13 - ID#227238)
On the confiscation thingy.
Snowball: I too share your opinion on confiscation. If Another's scenario is even close to the mark, nothing of value to our masters will be left untouched. All pretense of protection of numismatic values will be cast aside as so much straw in the wind. Judge not by the past, for it is meaningless. Judge by political values apparent for all to see today. That should be the only measure.

Of greater importance is to be prepared for the event. Answer the first question first. Will you allow your family's resources to be taken from you? ....... Under any circumstances whatever.

If your answer is yes, then save yourself a ton of anguish. Put your resources into T bills and forget, forever, any question of precious metals.

In terms of debt and natural resources, there is a huge difference between the US of today and the US of the '30s. Recovery from a spill from the saddle, this time, will not be the same now as it was then. It will entail the attempted confiscation of many things besides PMs. Know it.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:14 - ID#339212)
@ VRONSKY on SA and NA gold stock comparisons, re: 10:18

Gentlemen, after a prolonged absence, CHEESEHEAD is back. Sorry for my previous posting fearing CHEESEHEAD lost in an one-way street.

Vronsky, include a chart on LIHIR, CHEESEHEAD is heavy into it.

Next week the discussion will shift to LIHIR vs. SA stocks, be prepared,
besides, I am into VENGF.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:14 - ID#34194)
Will Iran stand for Saudi Arabia? Would they stand against the
superpowers as equals in armaments? Would Kuwait be sensitive
to such an alignment?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:15 - ID#26793)
I spent 3 great days in Maine this week. Sunny and 60's Tuesday and Wednesday, fog and drizzle on Thursday. I wanted to check out the pretty girls before their mothers yank them off the streets pending your arrival.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:16 - ID#368244)
Massive Currency Devaluations
When we say gold at $6000 per ounce, aren't we actually talking massive devaluations of currency? Doesn't this simply mean that more dollars exist than items of value to back them?

Is this not the problem with gold? More paper gold than actual phsyical?

What is the difference between $1.00 per barrel oil, and $100 per barrel oil?

The difference can only be in the method of exchange. What we are really doing when we buy gold is stating that we believe it won't be devalued. Since its supplies are finite, it makes better sense as a stable method of exchange.

In dollar terms, we must add zeros because the huge amount of transactions can no longer be handled in millons, but must now be trillons.

I believe that we are entering the age of digital currencies. Zeros are no problem for a computer. Those who understand this change over will likely have many more digital units than those who do not. If gold is the physical unit backing this change over, then I have no problem in believing $6000 or $50,000 an ounce gold. But, the times they are a changing my friend. There are many traps and pit falls that await the small investor in the year 2000--and beyond. I would appreciate other thoughts on this subject.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:18 - ID#222231)
All, ANOTHER-Who is selling gold?
One has to think like the devil in order to understand him. The price of gold has befuddled me for some time. I therefor would like everyones opinions on the following:

Would anyone sell gold at these depressed prices unless they were covered? Who has the wherewithall to sell large quantities without being naked? Assume that CB's are forward selling to major producers such as ABX. ABX has hedge prices for thier forward sales way above current spot. Why would'nt major producers such as ABX, getting a premium price for thier product ( gold ) , not speculate and short gold with thier massive reserves? They continuously sqeeze longs and collect large amounts from thier sales that probably will not be excersised. How long can they continue to do so until they are sqeezed?

Are the CB's aiding and abetting these sellers? Does anyone know who the large sellers are? ( anyone else besides major gold producers ) When ML took the initiative to sue big buyers in silver as manipulating the market, why can not goldbugs ( buyers ) take the initiative by excersising a suit to the sue big sellers in gold as manipulators? ( I know there are a few legal beagals out there ) Is WB selling contracts in silver? why not? He is covered and could do so easily while collecting on sales that will probably not be consumated and if they were, he would still be selling at a profit.

If the above are occuring, is this not manipulation that should be considered illegal?

Please forgive me if anyone else has asked these questions or they sound stupid.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:18 - ID#227238)
Ding, ding, ding. Dung on demand.
Studio R: What a pal! Could use about 10 or 12 yards of the stuff. Keep any chickens? That's even better. ..... but much less pleasant. If such a term is possible with such dreadful stuff.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:21 - ID#170304)
Earl the Pearl (Yes, its me Paul)

How are you amigo? If they take my gold, my guns and my 1st child,
what else could they take....give me some ideas...Thanks

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:23 - ID#330175)
Donald.........where in Maine?
and what girls,huh...

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:26 - ID#330175)
my sheets are from Sears~~~~~~~

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:27 - ID#26793)
Stayed the whole time in Freeport.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:29 - ID#35767)
Donald tells me the real story of ya leavin the Cape is ya harass too many of da women up there so they sentenced you to an isolated island in Maine which is only inhabited by the wild life and the Goodrich Hermit type person. Fess up Boy!!!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:31 - ID#60253)

Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 19:51


"then the true inflation of the US dollar over the last 20 years, since the last oil shock, would be clearly revealed"?

Mr. GCH,

Today, digital currencies are not to hold value, but to use for trade only. I do wonder why many were so worried for price inflation, as it cannot destroy value of a currency that holds not worth as paper? The dollar of your youth is not the same item. This modern paper is but a "receipt in commerce"! If a person holds a "paper trade receipt" as a savings for life, how can wealth be gained? Look to many lesser countries with currencies of many zeros, this paper is still in use. Gold has gained much in these hands and the economy still continues.

Many look to the Dow Jones, and see large gains! But, I say, gains in terms of what? World paper currencies? These gains are not of real things, nor can they ever be totally traded for real things! And, these gains, they come with great risk, yes? For my children, I hold no risk with gold!

Look now, as the CB money makers do now change the rules of engagement! Many zeros will be added to the present "world reserve currency" in "big rush" as the great digital gains of these past few years become as "dreams on a desert night"!

Thank you

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:31 - ID#401183)
My concern over bullion vs. numismatic has intensified this week as two dealers who know I possess bullion have contacted me on swapping my bullion for numismatic under the pretense of GOLD CONFISCATION after the G-7 meeting, and getting a tax credit for the losses I incurr on the swap! But what do they do with it? If they liquidate it, where does it go and don't they assume the same risk of confiscation? This dumb goldbug from INDIANA needs help! Thanks for any and all response! HOOSIER.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:34 - ID#231337)
Another ...your post of Sat Apr 18 1998 20:52
Sounds pretty ominious! When you predict this will happen before the year 2000, I can only think of a couple of events that could trigger that huge shift as it is only 20 months away!! That right around the corner.

Potentially: The Euro and a new Asian currency split the currency play into three thus forcing the issues of a new medium of valuation, that being GOLD.

No one can predict a disaster, so I presume that whatever action you speak of is in the cards.. that is, the forces are now at work to make this happen. That probably implies political action and it seems to be able only to come from one of three areas... Asia, the Mid East, or Europe with the EURO just on the horizon.

The comment 'where no one can see' is pretty ominious. Hope it catches the attention of a few others.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:37 - ID#227238)
pmdhrh: Hola! ( must learn that Alt - key business ) Have no fear for loss of your 1st born. Except as fledglings in the New Democratic Socialist Party, they will be considered a burden. Phrenology will probably be readopted to separate the New Sheep from the unter mensch goats.

On confiscation? How about businesses critical for national survival? How about a revisitation of "bank holidays"? During which the masters will visit your safe deposit box. Seems farfetched in these warm and cozy times; doesn't it? We are too accustomed to reasonably tranquil transitions. The old order changeth and it has a high probablity of being intranquil. ...... If it isn't; what the hell have you lost?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:41 - ID#35767)
Please stop sayin' Go Gold and go to bed and give us intellectual gold people some time ta cogitate da future! Woids o wisdom from da Bronx / Brooklyn type arear.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:44 - ID#288295)
ANOTHER:In the past you have spoken of BIS gold purchases; can you tell us how much gold is owned by the BIS?Thank you.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:46 - ID#286199)
Dealers want to sell you numismatics because they get a much bigger premium than on bullion. It really is that simple. They are in business to make money and they can only make 4% to 5% on bullion but much more on numismatics. Numismatic coins are not as liquid as bullion or mining stocks. Call around town and try to sell the coins you are about to buy. That's an education in itself. The hefty premiums mean you won't break even unless the price of gold goes way up. The value assigned to coins is very subjective and depends on your knowledge of terms like "mint-state", "toning", "bag marks", and many more. Learn before you buy or you may pay a hefty tuition at the school of experience. Having said all of that, I own some old gold coins. They are pretty baubles. They are the second worst performing asset in my experience ( Cornucopia mining being the first worst ) . My kids will inherit them. Caveat Emptor!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:47 - ID#330175)
ROR...................and yer talkin funny again
toooo much brewski,eh~~~~

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:49 - ID#227238)
An idle thought. ... Is the present stock market being allowed free rein in anticipation of a major devaluation? In order that the ensuing loss of value will not seem to be so extreme.

I am mindful of a DOW chart from 1910 to the present - in constant dollars - ...... it has always returned to zero. In constant dollars.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:50 - ID#431263)
Sorry for my long absence, but just got back from a well deserved vacation dodging twisters in Tennessee and Alabama!: ) Gott im Himmel, what a mess! At any rate, now that I'm back, please check out what has been happening in the world of VENGOLD/LIHIR! On Friday, Vengold announced that Placer Dome had purchased 23.6 million Vengold shares for C $1.75 or C$41.3 million or 16.8% of all outstanding Vengold shares with an option to increase their percentage of ownership to 20% less one share! This on top of a company announcement on April 6 that a consortium of investment houses had purchased $46 million US of Vengold stock. All told this month Vengold will have raised enough cash to have on hand @ C$95 million with which to purchase more of the Lihir mine or any other sweet little deal that may come its way! Heilige! Who knows? They may even decide to purchase some of that cheap deep stuff in SA! : ) What this tells me is that Placer smells the increasing probability that Vengold is going to become a major long-term player in the acquisition of the Lihir mine and is staking out its claim to the same if and when it all happens. Placer now has a director on Vengold's board that will provide Vengold with everything it needs to be successful! This announcement virtually guarantees that Vengold will succeed in its stated goal to gain a controlling interest in Lihir, and as the merger wars begin to heat up in gold mining the way they have in financials, Placer is guaranteeing that she will be there when the suitors start calling! I can't tell you how happy this makes me and all Vengold shareholders! This stock is still trading at a serious discount to Lihir despite the fact that each share of Lihir ( Aussie shares ) are the virtual equivalent to each Vengold share. I will wager that these recent announcements will narrow this gap considerably if not eliminate it! Vengold may, in the future, even trade at a premium to Lihir as Vengold gets closer to a controlling interest in Lihir. As someone here has already pointed out, Lihir is up this year some 66%, as is Vengold! And unlike someone else I know, I DO NOT PLAN TO SELL A SINGLE SHARE BEFORE THE YEAR 2000 OR LONGER NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS TO THE PRICE OF HERR GOLD, OIL OR THE US DOLLAR! And no, I really don't give a flying fartling about the XAU or NA golds in general! My sole focus of attention at this moment is on VENGOLD/LIHIR AND HERR GOLD HIMSELF, which ANOTHER'S post this evening has convinced me that PHYSICAL
GOLD BUY AND HOLD IS THE ONLY WAY TO GO IN THE COMING MILLENNIUM! Wiedersehen to one and all! Still have to unpack and convince meinen Frau to do my dirty laundry! : )

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:51 - ID#285121)
Back from Nassau
If you get a chance to visit Nassau, do. It's changing,and for the better. Visit This is a reputable company well respected by the Banking industry there.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:52 - ID#285121)
Error I guess

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:54 - ID#31876)
This Evening's Revelations by Another--
Reminds of last year's words, "Something is amiss. Something is
causing this anomoly wrapped in an enigma. Some force external
to the market is controlling the price of the noble metal.
Something is forcing it to be range bound!"

The truth is getting closer.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 21:55 - ID#26793)
Lesser countries with currencies of many zeroes do not operate well. If there are no citizens who will save those currencies then there can be no capital to construct factories, plant crops or build housing for a comfortable life. They will remain beggars forever.

Worthless paper currencies are now used in every country of the world. There is no safe place to save. Thus there can be no capital and no capitalism. It is only a matter of time. What will there be available to use the trade receipts for? Who will need oil in such a world? Governments must return to gold or they will perish. It is only a matter of time.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:00 - ID#288369)
@The Gold Tax........
In order for an ounce of gold to be "legally" sold in the United States, the parcel of gold must be accompanied by an attached gold "stamp". Otherwise, the transaction is considered illegal and the non-legitimate gold is confiscated by the Fed. All newly-mined domestic gold must have the stamp attached...and exisiting jewelry must have a stamp porportionate to its gold content at the time of a sale. It is illegal to take gold in or out of the country without the gold stamp. Cost of gold stamp payable to the United States Dept. of the Treasury....$5000./oz.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:01 - ID#60253)

Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 21:04

Carl ( @Another ) ID#341189:

Questions: Do you have a belief about whether the euro will be attractive to oil producers as an oil currency? If the price of gold in dollars begins to rise and the dollar also strengthens against other currencies, as you suggest, will not this accurate the purchase of gold by holders of other currencies?

Mr. Carl,

The partial backing of the Euro with gold is a resent thing. It was to be only 5% with the understanding that most "European" oil buys would be settled in Euro. The oil alone would give the Euro "reserve status". Now the BIS has worked to bring a possible "80%" of all world buys settled in Euro if 15% to 30% gold is held. This will bring the end of US$ holdings to act as reserves! In this way, the dollar price of gold would go to "no end"! This would further allow the Euro to become "top gun" as the US would even be forced to buy Euros to buy oil!

Many other currencies would come off the dollar standard as gold rises in their terms.

Make no mistake, all this will bring much pressure to gold mine operators. Mr. Carl, if you hold mine stock, you will stand behind many others when time to sell!

In a dual, it is best to move two steps to right, before one does turn and fire, yes?

thank you

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:07 - ID#339212)

In your response to CHEESEHEAD you state:

"Many look to the Dow Jones, and see large gains! But, I say, gains in
terms of what? World paper currencies? These gains are not of real
things, nor can they ever be totally traded for real things! And, these
gains, they come with great risk, yes? For my children, I hold no risk
with gold!"

My question to you is this:
The large anticipated rise of gold will it not be relative to currencies? Even if gold is priced relative to oil, even the price of oil is equated to currencies

My comment to you also is this:
The DOW gains are very real, some smart people sold the DOW, took their gains, and have a lot more gold or silver than those who are still waiting.
An example is LGB - an unpopular name in this Forum for reasons beyond my understanding. Others of course turned their DOW profits into real estate, into farm land, and those who are still in the DOW Chevron and EXXON, will even further profit from any Oil increase.

Meanwhile those of us who hold physical / paper PMs sit and wait and let other "golden" opportunities pass us by.

One more point, the wealthy of this world hold a diversification of real assets attained from "paper assets" which guarantees them immunity
from the potential devastation in a financial crisis.
Yours truly,


(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:10 - ID#335190)
FWIW @ Warnings of the 1929 crash (curb speculation, protect traders)
There had been some warnings of the approaching crash in England, which American newspapers never saw. The London Statist on May 25 1929 said:
" The banking authorities in the United States apparently want a business panic to curb speculation."

The London Economist on May 11 1929 said:
"The events of the past year have seen the beginnings of a new technique, which, if maintained and developed, may succeed in "rationing the speculator without injuring the trader."

Governor Charles S. Hamlin quoted this statement at the Senate hearings in 1931 and said, in corroboration of it:
"That was the feeling of certain members of the Board, to remove Federal Reserve credit from the speculator without injuring the trader."

Governor Hamlin did not bother to point out that the "speculators" he was out to break were the school-teachers and small town merchants who had put their savings into the stock market, or that the "traders" he was trying to protect were the big Wall Street operators, Bernard Baruch and Paul Warburg.

When the Federal Reserve Bank of New York raised its rate to six percent on August 9, 1929, market conditions began which culminated in tremendous selling orders from October 24 into November, which wiped out a hundred and sixty billion dollars worth of security values.

That was a hundred and sixty billions which the American citizens had one month and did not have the next. Some idea of the calamity may be had if we remember that the U. S. enormous outlay of money and goods in the Second World War amounted to not much more than Two Hundred Billions of Dollars, and a great deal of that remained as **negotiable securities in the national debt**

Emmanuel Goldenweiser, director of research for the Federal Reserve System said in 1947:..." It is clear in retrospect that the Board should have ignored the speculative expansion and allowed it to collapse of its own weight."

The great thinkers and statesmen of business, finance and industry were well nigh unanimous in declaring that there was nothing to worry about. Not long before the crash President Hoover had declared, "We in America today are nearer to the final triumph over poverty than ever before in the history of any land. The poorhouse is vanishing from among us."

FWIW Take Care

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:14 - ID#60253)

Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 21:14
ForkLift__A ( Another ) ID#34194:
Will Iran stand for Saudi Arabia? Would they stand against the superpowers as equals in armaments? Would Kuwait be sensitive to such an alignment?

Mr. ForkLift,
I did not think we would ever see this. In the end, it may be seen that the "gold Dinar" may one day be a common currency for all the Gulf region. To this end, all will stand together! We must watch this possible change, as it could be a challenge to understand.

Thank You

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:15 - ID#288369)
@The Gold Tax..part 2....
The value of "stamped" gold in Fort Knox is $5309. per ounce we now have a gold-backed dollar?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:18 - ID#431263)
Perhaps I'm a little too tired to think clearly this evening, but could you please explain to this cheesehead why gold mining operaters who pay their miners in devalued local currencies and sell production in US dollars will be harmed when gold revalues currencies? Won't gold be king at that point? And won't real gold mines with real production in the ground be even more insanely profitable should gold be priced in dollar terms anywhere near $6,000/oz.? Or might you be referring to a coming CONFISCATION NOT ONLY OF PHYSICAL GOLD BUT GOLD MINES AS WELL? ( My main reason for not owning any US mines! ) Danke!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:18 - ID#26793)
Pegasus Gold year end report

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:20 - ID#368244)
@ Studio R

Where for you find out about this gold tax? Interesting!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:21 - ID#57232)
Gold Certificates vs Physical Gold -- which is being traded?
mozel: ANOTHER's words today ring true to me, and make me think we may still not have all the pieces of the puzzle, namely how is gold being traded as currency at the gold bullion houses or by the BIS, and is there enough physical gold in circulation to cover all of the trading commitments of the traders? I'm not just talking about COMEX , but also the LBMA and othoer 'physical' gold bullion exchanges.

How is gold more likely to be traded as currency? As physical gold, or a paper certificate claimed to be as good as gold? My guess is that even the Rothschilds use gold certificates for much of their trading. It seems the inevitable outcome of the relatively difficult transportability of gold. So have all the 'goldsmiths' been honest and only issue certificates when they have gold in their banks, or have they been doing some padding?

Frank Veneroso thinks that the gold spot price is only about 25% or so higher than the physical gold price, due to 'paper' derivatives market trading. But -- could he be wrong, and the available physical gold is really being represented by gold certificates of some kind, instead?

What if some group has 'cooked' the books, and even FV has been bamboozled into thinking there is much more gold than there really is available? I am concerned about this, partially because the COMEX physical gold situation seems far less liquid than it should be. It is as if the COMEX gold stores have little at all to do with physical gold trading. Are they just for show?

Again I post the question I posted many months ago. Do we know who inspects the LBMA, the gold bullion houses, and the central banks to make sure that every gold ounce certificate in circulation as gold is backed by a physical ounce of gold? If there is an international inspection team, when did they last check the claimed gold reserves of the CB's and bullion houses? Or -- anywhere else large quantities of gold are claimed to be stored.

The question I raised is a very important one to all of us. If the physical gold is there to meet all of the stated paper claims, then Frank Veneroso is right. But -- what if ANOTHER is correct -- and one of those 'goldsmiths' have made more gold 'certificates' than there is physical gold to go around? Then -- who knows what the US dollar is really worth?

This is very much like the question -- just how much gold really is in Fort Knox? There are two good reasons to guard Fort Knox very heavily -- either because there is alot of gold to be protected, or because there is none, and someone doesn't want anyone else to know.

One counterpoint to the above is the answer: It does not matter, because the gold is 'somewhere' and it will come out during a crisis. Unfortunately it does matter if there are enough unmatched gold certificates being falsely traded as physical gold. And, that is the holders of the gold might not be willing to 'bail out' those unfortunate 'goldsmiths' until the price of gold ( in dollars ) is much higher than it is right now. It is really simply a matter of who has the gold. It it where we are told it is?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:22 - ID#288369)
I just thought of it after having a bowl of butter pecan ice cream....

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:25 - ID#341189)
Thank you for your reply. It was as I had suspected from your previous writings alluding to the euro. I have questioned before your prediction that "gold in the ground" is a poor thing to hold. As you suspicion, I hold some. It is outside of my experience to imagine the expropriation of these mines on a world wide scale and I am reluctant to let go of them. I also do not wish to make myself a target by physically posessing bullion, nor do I wish to break the laws of my country in some future confiscation. How do you see a company like for example Barrick, which holds "gold in the ground" in several countries, being handled in the future which you are predicting? Will each country simply take their gold? And if they did, wouldn't they be compensated? One other question, if you would be so kind. If gold is to held for the public good in the future, how would oil be purchased by private companies?

And yes, I do think it would be wise to step out of the line of fire while dueling. ( :- ) )

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:30 - ID#60253)
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 21:1
Pete ( All, ANOTHER-Who is selling gold? ) ID#222231

Mr. Pete,
These money printers, they do much and fool noone. "Follow in the footsteps of giants", as they take in real gold. Do so and the future will show your wisdom from today!

thank you

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:30 - ID#368244)
One World Currency

Sounds to me like we are talking one world currency here. Governed by Whom?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:31 - ID#263379)
Gold mining stocks and their golden path!
Mr. Another, First, welcome back. I have read most of your posts dating back to last September and studied your proposition regarding world oil/gold/currencies/derivatives. To me, you are the master of the obvious.
Your words command attention due to the common sense and long range approach an oil producing country would and should follow protecting its assets and trade of their precious commodity "oil" against the world of nations and their circumstance of depreciating currancies.

As much as I would like to follow your specific recommendations of owning physical gold now, I cannot at this time for reasons stated below. Others that post here at KITCO are gold bugs of the western world belief ( as you labeled ) that are staged, and ready for that big gold move as you have postulated. Unfortunately, most with gold mining stocks in possession that maintain a present day formidable loss that at some point will be regained.
Now, I'm sure a large majority here can relate to this position and question.

My plan is one that switches from my gold mining stocks ( before they burn ) to the physical, for a hold of a lifetime, as you have gracefully stated.

I acknowledge a possible LOCK in the physical gold market at, or about $1,000.

1 ) Sell 1/2 position of the mining stocks @ $650 and buy physical gold. ( coins or bars )
2 ) Sell the remaining 1/2 position @ $750 and complete the physical gold purchase.

This would assure a possible great % stock profit and more purchasing power to buy the physical. How do you envision gold availability at this level?

Mr. Another, can you be specific. Is this plan a viable one, and what caviats to you envison? Please advise this writer and your audience.

Best regards, and thank you.....

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:35 - ID#368244)
Studio R

Sounds good, might make mayhaw ice cream later . UM GOOD!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:36 - ID#60253)
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 21:44
Silverbaron ( ANOTHER ) ID#288295:
ANOTHER:In the past you have spoken of BIS gold purchases; can you tell us how much gold is owned by the BIS? Thank you.

Mr. Silverbaron, I will address a full post to this question. In a day or so. It is very interesting, this "Bank of Banks", yes?

thank you

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:38 - ID#57232)
Only US gold mines confiscated?
ANOTHER: Are you implying that only US gold mines might be confiscated? I am not so sure, because as Donald just alluded to, if the dollar falls, most of the world's currencies would fall as well. Only those countries with large gold reserves would have their currencies survive.

Thus -- I would guess that if you are right about an imminent crisis where the dollar is revalued in thousands of US dollars -- many countries would confiscate gold.

By the way, do you have any knowledge of gold certificates traded as gold by the BIS? By other central banks? Who verifies that the gold is where the banks and gold bullion houses say it is? And, if gold certificates are traded as physical gold, who makes sure that each one ounce gold certificate is backed by one ounce of gold? These questions are very important, as they may answer the true value of the US dollar in ounces of gold.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:39 - ID#57232)
My apologies
ANOTHER: I should have said '... where gold is valued in thousands of US dollars...'

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:41 - ID#288369)
@Earl....your THOUGHTS via e.mail.....
Agree with your opinion of his paper gold/fractional reserve analysis....this makes sense and it's obviously correct.

Your tambourine lucky dog!

You're a fine man Earl.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:42 - ID#30116)
pathfinder__A -- I have some of that VAALY come AGOLY of late. The problem with these ADRs is trying to find current information on them. Then again, if the price of gold 'returns' to its' former level, then most of these S.A. stocks should double or triple from current prices. To satisfy the SEC, I shall invoke the Sgt. Schultz standard disclaimer, "I see nothing! I know nothing!"................

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:42 - ID#153102)
Glad I could do it.

ANOTHER posted about changing "rules of engagement". This I see. The Nazi Gold attack on the Swiss and BIS, the talk of Narco-Gold by US Treasury officers in public fora, the revelation of US compromise of Swiss neutrality by diddling its crypto products, the Swiss Supreme Court decision that it is not in Swiss interests to hold flight capital or criminal proceeds, the danger to banking from the derivatives trade which BIS has repeatedly made public statements about, the desperate measure of English lawyers purporting to write a currency swap contract that basically legalizes away the relative foreign exchange market values of the currencies ( Alice in Wonderland, these Humpty Dumpty lawyers are several devolutions below journalists ) including gold with a legal force... all these developments tell me a counterattack on the US$ in the War on Gold is coming. Vital interests are being threatened.

The question is where will the revaluation occur ? The INTERBANK scene described by ANOTHER looks like BIS allowing a CB to use the same ounce of gold to guarantee performance on multiple transactions at the same time. This is likely. BIS can relative weight any INTERBANK $ transaction by simply requiring more or less gold to be put up on deposit with it for performance. This is risk management just as the down payment was once used in consumer lending for risk management. But there is no public across the board currency revaluation in Interbank performance guarantees.

The only public place where such a revaluation can occur today is LBMA. ANOTHER says CB's are losing control of the price at LBMA. Rubin says the United States prefers the flexible foreign exchange mechanism. That mechanism is LBMA for the currency named gold.

As in Brazil, adding zeros would destroy all financial assets denominated in $US. Bondholders would get mills. Mortgage holders would be paid back in mills. The $US fraud would be at an end. The $US would be revealed for what it is: a fiat currency like that issued by decree just like the currency of any other bananna republic. The United States Government has been posing as a bastion of capitalism while promoting a world socialist banking and legal system. Changing the rules of engagement means no longer crediting the public act of the USG, no longer going along with the legal fictions and public lies.

Truth is the defense of the honest man. And of the honest bank as well.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:43 - ID#222231)
Thank you for your reply. Got to go to bed. Can't keep my open any longer.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:59 - ID#285121)
Let's talk PPT ! Do you believe ?
I was somewhat sceptical when I first heard mention of the PPT. However after the morning of Oct. 28th it would be difficult for anyone to not be very suspicious at least. I never hear this mentioned, but market manipulation is illegal no mater who does it. Government or central banks. If indeed the PPT did turn our market on the morning of the 28th this action resulted in another 1.5 TRILLION going into the bubble since then. But for now, no one complains what so ever. Comments please.
I still believe we'll see another CB sale of gold before gold gets to $320.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 22:59 - ID#398105)

The BIS:

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:00 - ID#60253)

Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 21:55

Donald__A ( @Another ) ID#26793:

Copyright  1998 Donald__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Lesser countries with currencies of many zeroes do not operate well. If there are no citizens who will save those currencies then there can be no capital to construct factories, plant crops or build housing for a comfortable life. They will remain beggars forever. Worthless paper currencies are now used in every country of the world. There is no safe place to save. Thus there can be no capital and no capitalism. It is only a matter of time. What will there be available to use the trade receipts for? Who will need oil in such a world? Governments must return to gold or they will perish. It is only a matter of time.

Mr. Donald_A,

I have seen your view often. In this present world, it is a correct thought! But, perceptions of "capital" and what represents "capital" do change. Today, you use paper as a real value, and this debt currency is used to denominate the "worth of your assets" for your future. It is to say, "my savings, they equal the debt of my currency"! On this foundation, your production of goods and services are built. I submit, that without change, this economy will bring "beggars" into your family! We will not find this fate, gold will become "new money" and this money will buy much, with confidence. Yes, It is a matter of time.

Thank You

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:00 - ID#24864)
Japan Gold Holdings

Furthur to Old Gold's 15:25 today, there is debate about whether Japan would be selling Gold or buying more at the present time.
Japan's published reserves this decade have stayed unchanged at 24.2 million ounces. At $308 , this is barely US$7.5 billion.
Note that over Easter , Japan reportedly liquidated $8 to $12 billion in US Treasury bills , probably to finance the recent
Yen currency support operation begun on Easter Thursday.

Now I make 2 points and invite comment:
1. There is probably no point in Japan SELLING its gold AT CURRENT PRICES because the volume of dollars that would be
available would only be a "bucket in a bathtub" , with the proceeds being so small as to be largely irrelevent.
As proof of that, $8 billion or more sent the Yen from 133 to 128 approxiametly. Four days later, its back at 131+ .
So I would imagine they would be BUYING , if they were in the gold market, which I suspect the're not.

2. This exercise proves how ridiculously SMALL are the gold portion of foreign exchange holdings of many major countries.
Most Central Banks money issuance is now backed by ANOTHER Central Bank's Debt and a tiny fraction or no Gold , and a
promise to give you only more promises to pay in the future. The point I think is that the scale of Central Bank Gold
reserves ( say 32,000 tonnes MAXIMUM @ $308 ) at US$317 billion , is barely a "bucket" compared to the monetary
liabilities most of them have issued ( usually published as M 0 I think ) .

So collectively, I think Central Banks have very little to gain by SELLING Gold. The first seller gains some dollars but becuse
the market is so fragile ,drives the price down 3% ( say ) and devalues the other 31,900 tonnes held by all other Central Banks.
So SELLING is irrational behaviour collectively. Maybe this is why we are starting to get whiffs of BIS "organizing" purchasers
when one of the Club has to do a portfolio rebalancing. And maybe CB's are realizing that by "loaning" 8,000 tonnes which has
been promptly shorted through the bullion banks , they are damaging their own balance sheets far worse than the recompense of a
1.5% p.a. lease fee.

But then again maybe I am just babbling on on this beautiful autumn morning down-under as Gold prepares to resume it's plunge
tomorrow April 20th. We shall see.

Different topic went to coin Auction in Sydney last week. Picked up 80 year old half-sovereigns for A$63 average ( A$55 of Gold )
Also 70 year old sovereigns for A$110 ( A$111 gold content ) . Anecdotal evidence NO.28- The man in the street is NOT interested
in Gold at the present time. Happy Trading to all.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:01 - ID#423159)
if cu demand increase-ag output will explode t or f ?

q for response? is 70 percent of silver produced a by product of copper production?? t or f

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:02 - ID#57232)
Interbank gold transactions
mozel: You are already responding to the topics I raised in my post, and you undoubtedly know more about this than I. In the past, the BIS acted as the buyer and seller of gold for the central banks, and ( I believe ) only for relatively short periods of time did other sites such as the LBMA replace the role of the BIS.

I find it hard to believe that only the LBMA is now capable of trading gold as currency, and so therefore is the key to our current problems. I think the more serious matter is the process, not the location. Has the process of trading gold as currency been corrupted where only 'gold certificates' are being traded -- and they are no longer being backed 100% by gold? If so the US dollar would carry the brunt of a gold liuidity panic.

Personally, I don't think the worst case scenario where the US dollar abruptly melts down would ever happen, even what we suspect is true is really true. Reading from the pages of history, I would expect a repeat of the US dollar action in the 70's when the price of gold rose signficicantly, or the early thirties when the world went off the 'Pound Sterling standard'. Regardless, even this would not be pleasant.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:03 - ID#57232)
G'Nite all! Heavy, disturbing topics tonight!
I need some sleep.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:03 - ID#342282)
Another re currency flood
Dear Mr Another, I can understand you thoughts to a point. However I would like to know what mechanism ( s ) are available besides using currencies,paid for large volumes of oil, to go to market and buy gold. It would appear that this execution would immediately raise the price of gold. I am speaking of transactions today and the recent past. Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Thank you, Charlie

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:04 - ID#153102)
Confiscation occurs by government in a completely lawless country or a completely socialist country.

The fifth Amendment guarantees that property cannot be taken for public use without just compensation. The only just compensation for gold is gold. If the people of the United States tolerate the use of legal force for confiscation of private property, they deserve to have no worth for worthless is what they are.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:09 - ID#288369)
No need to confiscate....$5000./oz. Gold Tax stamp. That's more profitable than paying for confiscated gold.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:10 - ID#339212)
DROOY leverage article

A day or so ago someone posted something about DROOY leverage.

This article ( although old ) verifies the poster's comments:

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:11 - ID#253153)
Gold stocks --The best investment during deflation
Ask yourself the following question-- During deflation how would you support your family and at the same time benefit from the rise in POG ?
1. You may lose your job or business.
2. As gold stocks appreciates ( especially the blue chips ) , dividends will
increase. In my opinion, at some point the major mining companies
will pay better than 75% of their profits in dividends. In the thirties
Homestake was paying 85% of its net income in dividends because
there was no business expansion and no place to invest their profits.
3. Also remember that mining companies will provide employment to
many people.
4. Long US treasuries will provide income if you bough them now.
5. I believe that by the year 2000 interest rates will substantially lower
then they today.
6. Cash will be KING and very scarce.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:13 - ID#153102)
I am getting nervous about ADR's. Any information you uncover about them would be welcome. I know there is a punitive fee to change ADR's to ordinary shares and that in itself makes me suspcious.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:17 - ID#60253)
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:07
Myrmidon ( @ ANOTHER on "REAL THINGS" ) ID#339212:
Copyright  1998 Myrmidon/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

"My question to you is this: The large anticipated rise of gold will it not be relative to currencies? Even if gold is priced relative to oil, even the price of oil is equated to currencies"?

Mr. Myrmidon,
The present digital money undervalues all real things in terms of "gold real money". This process hides the "current debt" that by default, encumbers all assets denominated in "digital currency"! It is to say " your wealth isn't as great as your currency says it is"!
For persons who "settle up" and convert to real things and gold, they have:

"taken two steps to the right, before the opponent has turned" In a Dual it is cheating, but in "life and death", it is a "good move", yes?

Thank you

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:17 - ID#373403)
They better confiscate quickly before the market value of gold makes us all a nice tidy profit at the expense of our fellow taxpayers.

Article V. of the Bill of Rights of the Constitution of the United States

...;nor shall private property be taken for public use without just compensation.

From Websters New Universal Unabridged Dictionary:

2 ) equitable; impartial; fair
3 ) exact; accurate; precise; neither too much nor too little; neither more nor less

a weighing together, a compensation, from compensare, to weigh together, compensate.
3 ) in law, a setoff; the settlement of debt by the debtor's establishing of a counterclaim against his creditor.

I know the government accepts my current market valuation of my gold because they allow me to pay taxes based on my reporting of my inventory levels. That ought to be legally binding to them if I pay unrealized capital gains taxes each year as the price of gold rises.

Another question. Would there be a market liquidity to gold held in spite of confiscation?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:18 - ID#227238)
Minor response in a jocular vein.
Mozel: "Confiscation occurs by government in a completely lawless country or a completely socialist country."

There is a discernible difference? : )

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:18 - ID#288369)
Gotta' go to a "loud" kids' showcase...ouch! BBT. ANOTHER...thanks for coming back and helping us. studio.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:27 - ID#60253)
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:18
Copyright  1998 GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"why gold mining operators who pay their miners in devalued local currencies and sell production in US dollars will be harmed when gold revalues currencies? Won't gold be king at that point?"

Mr. GCH,
I think the governments will change the rules, just before you decide to sell. It is the way of life, yes? Is it not the "human nature" to rob the bank with the most money?
Time will prove all things!

Thank You

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:27 - ID#431263)
What if the "powers that be" declare a national emergency and "suspend the Constitution in the national interest?" Something to consider these days. Yes?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:32 - ID#261269)
When would you expect these events to start moving the price of gold upwards ... as the story starts to come out into the open??

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:33 - ID#153102)
I don't understand the concept. You have to relate it to actual law for it to make sense to me. There is a basic problem of taxing the mere possession of money. They have no such taxing power. Such a power could not be dignified with the word tax. Even serfs never had to pay a tax for the possession of money. If you are saying they will tax the conversion of gold to fiat at that rate ( calling it income ) , who would be fool enough to convert first of all and second of all who would be fool enough to convert where the tax can be collected ? If I trade an oz with you for $6,000, are you supposed to be a reporting and withholding agent for $5,000 of it ? I do not believe they can demonize gold in the public mind as they have demonized drugs.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:39 - ID#261269)
I meant to say the US$ price of gold and say

thank you

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:39 - ID#227238)
JP: With all due respect; your's may well be a reflection of what has been. Just as generals prepare to fight future wars with previously successful tactics.

It may well be totally in error to continue to measure the value of gold in currency's terms. Any currency. For in a real sense, gold is money. The measure by which all other things are judged for value.

It comes so naturally to us to judge our relative net worth in currency's terms. After the next bull market in gold we will expect receive an appreciation in dollar terms. And that our net worth grow to $XX.

And yet it could turn out to be more valid to deduce our stored value, net worth, in oz's of gold. Or other undistortable medium of exchange.

If that should turn out to be the case; how will the paper strategies of the past protect you? ........ FWIW. Just another opinion.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:43 - ID#373403)
"suspend the Constitution in the national interest"

I think this is made unconstitutional by the fifth ammendment itself as it relates to confiscation of private property. The taking of private property for public use is by definition in the national interest. I think the constitution would have to be ammended for this to be above legal reproach.

silver plate
(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:43 - ID#234253)
Another: thank you for coming back
My simple minded understanding of Another's comments is something we all know but don't or won't face. The dollar is debt not wealth or any tangible asset: therefore it is worth very little and in terms of gold it's "worth" will be what ever circumstances permit.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:46 - ID#60253)
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:25
Carl ( @Another ) ID#341189:
Copyright  1998 Carl/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"How do you see a company like for example Barrick, which holds "gold in the ground" in several countries"? Will each country simply take their gold? If gold is to held for the public good in the future, how would oil be purchased by private companies?

Mr. Carl,
See my last reply for the GCH. I think Barrick is a large bank and will require many good robbers! These government treasuries, good minds they have, I have seen!
Gold for the public good will be in the form of "money in the hand". A Dinar and a Euro for oil? We will see?

Thank You

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:48 - ID#255190)
You are saying that the US Dollar is being cast off and a new deal being worked out with regard to oil purchases. In the past you have said the EURO may be used, but this is not necessary. It now seems that you are saying a deal was offered by an oil interest to the Europeans and they have accepted. This would be a 20 to 30% gol reserve for that currency.

Appearantly the percentage will be revealed in early May along with the naming of the president of the ECB. Do you expect that this will be when this begins to change?

You say that people will try to cash out their digital accounts and buy 'real things' thus causing price increases. I take it this will happen before the 'adding of zeros' to the US$. The second part is the dumping of Dollars to buy EUROs or the national currenies ( such as Yen ) .

I would like to know two things. What do you see as the sign or evidence that the first phase has commenced ( digital currency units being exchanged for real things ) ? Similarly what do you see as the sign or evidence that the second phase of dumping the US Dollar has commenced?

Specificly I wonder what avenue these people will take to secure physical property since most commodity contracts are really just more paper. How will these people/groups buy 'real things' like gold when the physical gold market is so very small? Many of us have found that getting a gold coin order filled is a 2 to 4 week process.

Do you see the 4080 delivery notices for gold at the COMEX as a sign of this type of effort to take delivery of physical metal? Since there is only enough gold to accomodate 1475 contracts what will happen to the rest???

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:52 - ID#373403)
The Other Side
Even if no trading profits are gained by holding gold due to it's being made illegal, if one were to forget about it, they would make it to the other side of the depression with real assets to buy a good mens suit.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:53 - ID#256250)

Allen mentioned on April 4th that it looked like Comex was running a system based on fractional reserves. I agree. At the moment COMEX only has 159,146 ounces of gold eligible for delivery. Mighty slim pickings considering that April delivery notices for April are 408,000 ounces. ( We won't even mention the million plus ounces of paper gold that trade daily. ) It seems to me that we are very close to having the gold paper game totally exposed and closed out. Just by this bb understanding, to many people know ( more are finding out daily ) . The easy money will fall to those that take delivery ( while they can still get it ) . It seems to me that the sea change is at hand.

Am I to nave, how long can this play out, now that it is in the light of day?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:54 - ID#253153)
Debt in Deflation---Earl
I believe that the ruaway deflation phase we have just entered into
will WIPE out better than 95% of all existing debt on the face of this beautiful earth over the next 4-8 years. This debt will be wiped via defaults, reneg , forgiveness and other means. What ever US dollars are left in circulation, their purchasing power will increase substantially in the US. The US dollar may be decreasing in value against foreign currencies ( who are backed by gold ) but in the US it will soar in value.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:55 - ID#253153)
Debt in Deflation---Earl
I believe that the ruaway deflation phase we have just entered into
will WIPE out better than 95% of all existing debt on the face of this beautiful earth over the next 4-8 years. This debt will be wiped via defaults, reneg , forgiveness and other means. What ever US dollars are left in circulation, their purchasing power will increase substantially in the US. The US dollar may be decreasing in value against foreign currencies ( who are backed by gold ) but in the US it will soar in value.

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:55 - ID#431263)
YOUR LAST POST TONIGHT TO JP WAS PURE GOLD, MEIN HERR! You've hit the proverbial nail on the head! GOLD will determine value in the years to come and all true savings will only have purchasing power in the real of world of things in relation to how they are valued by the precious yellow! BUY GOLD AND HOLD!! IT ALONE WILL MAINTAIN PURCHASING POWER RELATIVE TO FIAT ( DEBT-BASED ) CURRENCIES!

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:58 - ID#398105)
A little refresher....................

November 1997 seems such a long time ago !

A passing thought in relation to the SHORTS......

Can a self-made man pull himself to pieces ?

Can a self-made market pull itself to pieces ?

(Sat Apr 18 1998 23:58 - ID#330175)
Earl....... just back from 32nd Street South in Seattle----------------
via the telephone...told em ta say hi to you!!---you got it covered that building in remote ( ie.deep in the woods or let's say,an island ) areas can be a real pain-in-the-ass....but bein the 'patient-type' I am ( cough...cough ) I can handle 'it'...luckily been there done that ( several times ) I was 'island man' in upstate NY ( no one else wanted the jobs---cause of the 'hassle factor' I said,they'll hear my swearin...all over the island...local S.I granite fore the chimney-fireplace...