Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:04 - ID#255190)
All very interesting...
A.Goose that's 1591 contracts filled, 2489 vaporized. Not only that but I feel that they do not have as much bullion as they claim either. I believe they have been using gold certificates as bullion in hand. This is a claim on physical gold someplace else ( not in the repositories ) . So I wonder just how much gold will actually be delivered. Its quite possible that the gold certificate issuers have also fractionalized their physical holdings by issuing more that they actually have while hoping and praying that not to many actually want the gold itself.

This is basicly fraud. But it is also consistent with much of banking practice today and I can see how this could have been done with gold certificates as well. A mess of weasels they are indeed.

Will call it quits for tonight. See ya'll tomorrow.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:08 - ID#60253)
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:31
LIBERTY__A ( Gold mining stocks and their golden path! ) ID#263379:
Copyright  1998 LIBERTY__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mr. Another,
"How do you envision gold availability at this level?
"can you be specific. Is this plan a viable one, and what caveats to you envision?

Mr. Liberty_A,
Sir, the plan is good, the question is, "how good is your broker"? Noone can know how this world change will come about, in specifics. The gold market may lock at $400? Or $4,000! When the public perception does come to understand, many entities I know of will not be buying "at the market" as your broker will. These ones, they will be "above the market", "well above the market"! Will you bid $1,000 when your broker screen shows $475? I myself, as a country will be "there"! You sir, will stand well behind most in line.

I tell my children, as you may tell yours:

"when a thousand hungry lions fight for one scrap of food, small dogs should hide with what's in their belly"

Thank You

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:08 - ID#255304)
Does anyone know what the RC Mint's scheduled production for gold mounties is? Thnx

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:08 - ID#330175)
Haggis....& this 'night-cap' is DRUNK in yer honer,eh
Allen: Dow 10,000 ( dooooooooh ) ---why Ralph Acampora thinks ( I doubt it,eh ) that is no problemO....yes?'who' knows..huh??....

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:13 - ID#373403)
Gold is money?
From the Standard and Poors DRI website:
"The trade balance in goods and services deteriorated to $12.1 billion in February from Januarys downwardly-revised $11.6 billion, marking the worst monthly performance on the trade front since the government began reporting monthly trade in its current form ( in 1992 ) . Exports dropped by $0.6 billion, while imports slipped by $0.1 billion. Exports of nonmonetary gold were cut in half in February."

Nonmonetary gold? Monetary gold?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:13 - ID#330175)
even Another is makin sense t'nite.....glug....glug.....
Yeah,I'm startin ta see the 'big-picture',eh....

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:18 - ID#373403)
What am I missing here? Why would the hungry lions bid $1,000 when the little hungry dog's trading screen says $475?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:18 - ID#34857)
My dear Kitco friends;

An educational night to say the least! As a learner in these matters, I read ANOTHER's THOUGHTS! wanting to understand... but not... and too shy in the matters of this interest to ask a question -- lest I show my true ignorance. And then, out of the blue, time and again, here comes a post from a Kitcoite expressing my own curiosity and asking the very same question I want -- but didn't dare to ask and -- in a more cogent manner than I could have EVER expressed.

All I have to say is...

...thank you.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:18 - ID#60253)
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:38
JTF ( Only US gold mines confiscated? )

Mr. JTF,
Please see my Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:36

Thank You

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:19 - ID#255304)
@Farfel's stickers
I light of this evening's discussion I would like to suggest that Farfel authorize Bart to print several thousand bumper stickers with his mantra:
"I Don't Care I'm Buying More And Taking Delivery"
You would either get a honk from a Kitcoite or be followed the CIA or NSA, Dept of Treasury ............

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:20 - ID#153102)
"Now the BIS has worked to bring a possible "80%" of all world buys
settled in Euro if 15% to 30% gold is held"

This is the essence of ANOTHER's information. BIS has the gold of member banks shares. BIS also holds gold on deposit from Central Banks. Most importantly, BIS also acts as Trustee and Agent for international settlements. As Trustee and Agent it states on what terms it will perform. These terms translate into terms of performance for the parties. Gold is the pledge BIS demands for performance. BIS can require a smaller pledge for transactions in a currency which is itself redeemable in gold by BIS at a guranteed rate because the currency itself contains a pledge of gold.

The United States Government has proved itself untrustworthy. First to its own people and then in the 70's to its trading partners and since the 70's to the international community. The IMF has broken pledges, too, I conjecture, by accommodating the US$'s inflation without adjusting its weight in the SDR by truthfully weighting for its devaluation by Congress or in some other way related to a gold pledge. The word of Congress is not as good as gold, the word of the President is not as good as gold, the word of Rubin is not as good as gold, so gold will be required as pledge from the United States in place of its word.

A man who dueled as ANOTHER proposes would have had no honor. He would have been shot down like a dog by the seconds. Without trustworthy, honorable seconds to enforce the law of dueling, there is not a duel, just a fight and shooting on sight.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:20 - ID#227238)
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD: We have no way to know in advance. Do we? In the past, I viewed the gold market as simply a trading vehicle. That is, ride the stocks for their leverage and maybe sell some and convert to physical.

Over time and with the help of this forum, I am almost 100% of the opinion that the coming dislocation will be different from any in our modern experience. We are now, after all, a global market. "Yes?"

The paper experience has been carried to extreme levels. Aided, at least partially, by the cold war which allowed the US to feather it's nest at the expense of its trading partners. Whether the morally bankrupt US political system set out to do it or not, it now makes little difference, that era is over. The deck cools rapidly and new dealers are itching to take over the game.

I don't pretend to have any cool insight into the entire picture, I only know that this time will be totally different in how the debacle unfolds. And holding someone elses debt and pretending that it's a value will probably prove to be a shortsighted and miscast pairadime paradigm.

As time and the denouement progresses, I personally feel more comfortable placing more of my limited resources in physical as opposed to derivatives. Perhaps, it's nothing more complicated than: I don't trust anyone to do the right thing anymore. Governments or markets. They are one and the same and likely rigged to boot. ...... as we goldbugs know from firsthand experience.

I have gold purchased at 425 some years ago. I have not once had an itch to sell it in this downturn. The thought had never ocurred to me. Still doesn't. ........ Can't say the same for gold stocks.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:22 - ID#20135)
Goodnight Allen, may you and yours have many ounces of gold bullion to carry you safely through the treacherous seas ahead.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:30 - ID#330175)
Earl.........I agree-------
that gold stocks seem a much more risky proposal than 'the physical' @ this point in time....yup,I do...

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:32 - ID#344308)

and the band plays on......temptations.

'we just want to dance here, some-one stole the stage....
they call us ir-responsible, write us off the page....
mccauley plays the mamba, listen to the radio....
we built this city, we built this city on----......jefferson starship.

we built this city on the shoulders of giants.

'if i have seen farther than others, it is because i have stood on the
shoulders of giants' sir isaac newton

we are being afforded a unique window to observe unique minds upon unique
sujects...what an incredible dichotomy of carbo-earth-anouts.

we fly the valleys of the mind together......yes.

the ssm awaits those with ds..we fly above the peopleo looking for
lazarus long and gullye foyle.....dora my me.
earl and mozel have been re-assigned as chewers of the spice
their seats raised above all others...usul
and the worms are allied with the ents and bear our standard...

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:33 - ID#431263)
Cause there ain't enough of the stuff to go around, big money will outbid
little money ( strong hands will outbid weak hands ) . The result will be that strong hands will get filled at whatever price is sufficient while market orders below that price ( weak hands ) will be ignored. Also, who said that fascist governments in emergency mode need to worry about little technicalities such as you mention in your post? This is ultimately what the NWO is all about--CONFISCATION, COMPULSION and CONTROL!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:43 - ID#60253)
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 23:03
chas ( Another re currency flood ) ID#342282:

Mr. Chas, I do not understand your question?

Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 23:32
BillD ( @ANOTHER ) ID#261269:
When would you expect these events to start moving the price of gold

Mr. BillD,
When the Cbs lose control. $360? Perhaps?

Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 23:48
Allen ( USA ) ( ANOTHER ) ID#255190:
Copyright  1998 Allen ( USA ) /Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Appearantly the percentage will be revealed in early May along with the naming of the president of the ECB. Do you expect that this will be when this begins to change?

The EURO is not done yet, much political fighting yet. It may change again, after May!

What do you see as the sign or evidence that the first phase has commenced ( digital currency units being exchanged for real things ) ? Similarly what do you see as the sign or evidence that the second phase of dumping the US Dollar has commenced?

See my post to BillD.

"I wonder what avenue these people will take to secure physical property since most commodity contracts are really just more paper?

A problem for persons that do todays work, tomorrow!

Do you see the 4080 delivery notices for gold at the COMEX as a sign of this type of effort to take delivery of physical metal? Since there is only enough gold to accomodate 1475 contracts what will happen to the rest???

I think, good minds will find a way to work this problem out. We will watch!

Thank You, Mr. Allen

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:45 - ID#398105)
What happened to that "Old" Beetles song .... Money can't buy me ....

This would appear to be one of the most recent publications on GOLD by the BIS ...50 years or so after the event !

Maybe we will know in the year 2050 what actually is happening TODAY ???

Note on gold shipments and gold exchanges organised by the Bank for
International Settlements, 1st June 1938 - 31st May 1945


This note deals with the gold location exchanges - both physical gold
shipments and location swaps between depositories - organised by the
Bank for International Settlements between 1st June 1938 and 31st May
1945, whether for its own account or for the account of its customers
( central banks and international institutions ) . It gives a comprehensive
overview of all such shipments and location swaps between depositories -
organised by the Bank for International Settlements between 1st June
1938 and 31st May 1945, whether for its own account or for the account
of its customers ( central banks and international institutions ) . It
gives a comprehensive overview of all such transactions and describes in
somewhat greater detail.

......MONEY used to talk, now it goes without saying.

A BANK is an Institution where you can borrow money, provided you can show sufficient evidence that you don't need it.

There are many things money can't buy, including what it used to. From what ANOTHER appears to be saying, before long "money" won't be able to buy GOLD ???

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:49 - ID#227238)
Ted: I would draw a distinction on the gold stock idea. If I truly believed that orderly markets would prevail, I would be inclined to follow a conventional approach. I just don't happen to believe that will be the case.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:50 - ID#431263)

For me that one quote says it all! Or, to put another way, "GOOD MONEY WILL ALWAYS DRIVE OUT BAD MONEY!!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:52 - ID#227238)
Haggis: " before long "money" won't be able to buy GOLD ???"

Well put.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:54 - ID#411112)
Speed,it sounds like you either had a bad experiance,or know little of what you speak,

numismatics are as liquid as bullion if you have cert or raw coins I will be happy to take them off your hands,they are converted to cash faster than any other asset,prove it to yourself if you own stock,call your broker and see how long it takes to get a chq.walk into my office Monday morning at 9 leave at 9:15 with cash in hand....

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:55 - ID#153102)
If you can't buy any more gold, buy lead. A thief is a theif and a robber is a robber and a murderer is a murderer whether he carries a badge or wears a uniform or not.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:55 - ID#431263)
Governments can and will break the rules when it is to their advantage to do so! ( Paraphrasing ANOTHER )

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:58 - ID#398105)
Ted (Haggis....& this 'night-cap' is DRUNK in yer honer,eh

Aye Laddie,

As the wise man said...........

Wisdom consists of knowing when to avoid perfection.

As most of us at Kitco realize, most well trodden paths lead nowhere.

And, for the "shy" ones here today, better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt !!

Och aye the noooooooooooooooo.............

(Sun Apr 19 1998 00:58 - ID#255151)
Today in History

The Battle of Lexington and Concord in 1775, FDR takes U.S. off the Gold Standard, and Elliot Ness is born.

Quixotic 1
(Sun Apr 19 1998 01:08 - ID#48200)
ANOTHER just pulled the curtains open on Mr. Peter Munk !!
Peter Munk, ex ABX captain.
I think Mr. ANOTHER just pulled open the curtains on Mr. Skunk, and his switch out of Gold and into other hard assets ( real estate ) . If the end game for Gold, is to be confiscated and nationalized, what better time to get out now, rather than trying to time the top, or risk the intell becoming to widespread.

ANOTHER @ 20:52

The US$ is soon to become a " regular paper currency"! To this end, holders of US dollars and US$ assets, must make a decision that will impact all assets, worldwide! To this end, assets will move to "physical gold " and cash dollars" first, driving up the dollar against all currencies. Then the dollar will be sold as it is deployed into real things.

INFLATION of hard assets in a scramble to dump currencies.

Gold for the good guysGMJ

(Sun Apr 19 1998 01:11 - ID#398105)
See ya later............


In every work of genius we recognise our rejected thoughts ?!

I always reach a conclusion whenever I am tired of thinking.

You may wish to consider coming to Kalgoorlie in Western Australia for the "Diggers and Dealers" conference in July 1998 to give a presentation on your THOUGHTS ?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 01:16 - ID#411112)
Nite boys had fun jumping between discussion groups the other one you ask?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 01:17 - ID#330175)
You got 'that' right Haggis
G'nite all~~~~~~

Lurker 777
(Sun Apr 19 1998 01:19 - ID#317247)
Thank you for the courage you demonstrate by sharing your wisdom and insight with us. BE SAFE MY FRIEND!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 01:21 - ID#431263)
What, sir, did you mean by your statement in a post earlier to the effect that "I, as a country will be 'there'?" Are you speaking for yourself, or as a representative of a country, or both? If you consider this to be an improper question and none of my business, then I am sorry for asking. No
desire to offend you!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 01:21 - ID#153102)
makes ANOTHER keep mentioning $360 ? The Italians value their gold at $360. Is there any other known significance to this number ?

When ANOTHER says the CB are losing control of the price at LBMA, I wonder. Have all the CB been cooperating with the USG in London ?

When he says the gold market may LOCK at $400 or at $4,000, then what happens ? If gold is not traded for the issued currencies of countries, how would anyone know its value in an issued currency ? Currencies will either go to gold redeemability with BIS. including the Euro, or they will have ZERO international value. If the US tries to seal the border, there will be the same black market in gold and EURO currency here that existed in the Soviet Union for dollars.

The height of socialism is confiscation of gold mines. Are the people of the United States socialist ? Will we tolerate a Fidel Castro government ? I don't think so.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 01:35 - ID#153102)
makes ANOTHER keep mentioning $360 ? The Italians value their gold at $360. Is there any other known significance to this number ?

When ANOTHER says the CB are losing control of the price at LBMA, I wonder. Have all the CB been cooperating with the USG in London ?

I always thought Gresham's Law was that Bad Money drives out Good. The reason being only fools don's save and do spend the sounder money. So, as an example, as soon as fake quarters started circulating in the United States, silver quarters were hoarded.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 01:41 - ID#153102)
@CheeseHead Corrected
I always thought Gresham's Law was that Bad Money drives out Good. The reason being only fools don's save and do spend the sounder money. So, as an example, as soon as fake quarters started circulating in the United States, silver quarters were hoarded.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 01:41 - ID#31868)
truly i pity the anger that is me...

(Sun Apr 19 1998 01:42 - ID#342282)
Another, rephrase of question
Thanx for your patience. In reference to large volume oil producers' sales for currency ( paper ) , do they have to use this currency to buy the gold they prefer, or is there another method or methods to acquire the gold? The main question is, if there is another method, could you comment, please. I'll be much obliged. Charlie

(Sun Apr 19 1998 01:56 - ID#153102)
You're welcome. You be safe, too.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 02:03 - ID#431263)
In normal times you'd be correct, but given ANOTHER'S scenario, GOOD MONEY ( GOLD ) will drive out BAD CURRENCY ( Fiat/debt-based ) . Agreed?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 02:15 - ID#398105)
Food for thought................

Accounting for the Rothschild Wealth and Influence
Morton ( 1962 ) noted that the Rothschild wealth was estimated at over $6
billion US in 1850. Not a significant amount in today's dollars;
however, consider the potential future value compounded over 147 years!
Taking $6 billion ( and assuming no erosion of the wealth base ) and
compounding that figure at various returns on investment ( a conservative
range of 4% to 8% ) would suggest the following net worth of the
Rothschild family enterprise:

$1.9 trillion US ( @ 4% )
$7.8 trillion US ( @ 5% )
$31.5 trillion US ( @ 6% )
$125,189.1 trillion US ( @ 7% )
$491,409.0 trillion US ( @ 8% )

To give these figures some perspective consider these benchmarks:

A little of $300 billion US buys every ounce of gold in every central
bank in the world ( see John Kutyn's estimate ( ) .

U.S. M3 money supply August 1997 was $5.2 trillion U.S. debt is currently $5.4 trillion.

U.S. GDP ( 1997; 2nd Q. ) is $8.03 trillion. George Soros'
empire is worth an estimated $20 billion.

We shall never have a full accounting of their wealth. All we can go on
is Morton's ( 1962 ) comment that their wealth is "ineffable as always."
Even our conservative estimates suggest a family with staggering wealth
and thus influence. In a world awash in debt and unsustainable fiat
currencies subject to implosion, the power of gold and the preference of
the Rothschilds to gold cannot be easily ignored.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 02:35 - ID#153102)
No, Gresham's Law is called a law because it is invariable under any circumstances.

Fiat is not really currency at all. It is legal tender. What they have done is to make it legal to tender a Note, a dishonored Note, and if the tender is refused, the government will enforce the transaction against the refusing party as if the tender had been accepted. That is using the force of government to uphold dishonored IOU's. That can hardly be said to protect the rights of the good people as individuals. It is using the force of government to protect the dishonored IOU's of crooks and cheats.

Gold is used as a pledge in international trade to enforce performance of contracts by the Settlement Trustee and Agent of the parties to the contract. A Pledge for performance is just not the same as money in circulation which is what Gresham's Law applies to. It's like a hostage.

Fiat or legal currencies perish when people defy government and not until. Inflation is defiance of government. It is the people telling government that the Notes are not worth their face value anymore. Governments respond to the defiance of inflation with wage and price controls. The US government imposed them in the 70's. But gave up. Legal tender will only disappear when the statutes are taken off the books. If this dishonored Note devalues, they will replace it with a new issue. Unless the American people wise up.

Gold has not held its value against $ inflation because government has intervened in the gold market to depress the price. But, it will soon make up for lost time.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 02:39 - ID#153102)
@How To Pay With golden eagles
golden eagles are legal tender, too. See my earlier post on how to pay with them and the statutes that apply.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 02:40 - ID#252127)

Such numbers suggest to Rothschild that only the possession of gold and gold mining assets will allow him to recoup the compounding of 147 years.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 02:41 - ID#255304)
@Comex sqeeeeze
Aye Haggis, not too many folks up this late.
I was just going over the comex supply v demand problems.
The demand side seems to be about 4080 x 100 x 307= 125,256,000. The supply side is only 1475 x 100 x 307 = 45,282,500.
This deficit requires an additional 54,219 to be added to each contract equaling 84, 919 / 100 = pog @ 849.19.
The comex could settle all demands by giving each contract 32.122 ounces @ 849.19.
Now thats a new paradigm!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 03:01 - ID#284255)
Weird but likes gold and lots of it

Either its OZ or the US but haven't been able to log onto Kitco for over 24 hrs

(Sun Apr 19 1998 03:04 - ID#153102)
If the rules on a Comex contract allow for settlement of the contract in cash, there will never be a squeeze on inventory at Comex. People who want gold buy it from refiners at the Comex spot price.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 03:21 - ID#252127)
An Opinion

Their would have to be one hell of a panic for a futures trader to take delievery on his COMEX gold contracts.
If he did so during normal times he'd be burning down the casino.
This is not to suggest that he doesn't on occasion buy the physical elsewhere in quantities relative to his wealth.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 03:35 - ID#252127)
An Opinion

There would have to be one hell of a panic for a futures
trader to take delievery on his COMEX gold contracts.
If he did so during normal times he'd be burning down
the casino and the house would be disturbed.
This is not to suggest that he doesn't on occasion buy
the physical elsewhere in quantities relative to his
wealth, that is if in fact he believes in gold.
Some are there for just paper profits; and have no conviction about the value of gold.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 03:38 - ID#270447)
ANOTHER'S Thoughts
This is my first attempt at posting here so I'm not sure how or if this is going to turn out. I've been reading Another's posts with great interest and others who are thinking along the same lines as he is. However, I have a question to ANOTHER and others who agree with his scenario. This scenario appears to hinge on the confiscation of gold; gold represented by paper ( gold mining stocks, futures contracts, etc. ) and physical gold ( bars, coins, etc. ) on a massive worldwide scale that has never occurred in the history of the planet. I don't know about the political systems in other countries to speculate what may happen but I can offer a very likely scenario of what would happen here in the US should a confiscation of wealth on that scale be attempted. I can assure you that any politician who attempted such confiscation would find himself out of office pronto and probably run out of town on a rail. It will never happen via Congressional action. The only way that type of confiscation could occur would be via the President declaring a state of national emergency and invoking his executive authority in the interests of national security. It is inconceivable that any president would take that kind of action with gold at $360, or $1000 for that matter. It would take a catastrophic financial earthquake for any president to have enough public support to issue that kind of executive order and that is also what would have to happen to push gold to the multi-thousand dollar level envisioned under this scenario. If there are market driven forces; i.e., inflation, deflation, currency crises, etc. that drive gold prices to new highs ( over US$875 ) there is no way any president is going to risk his presidency by issuing that kind of order. It would constitute political suicide unless there is a bonafide national emergency that is recognized by the majority of American citizens and support for such a move to restore order in the financial markets would have to be very obvious. In todays poll-driven political climate, I see no other way any president or political party could get away with this and survive. The US voters simply would not stand for it. There would be a huge political price to be paid for such police state action unless there were massive public support for it. If there were such support, any investor with half a brain should be able to see that train coming while it is a long ways down the track.

Another question for ANOTHER. Since the Gulf War with its liberation of Kuwait the US has a fair amount of influence in several Middle East countries; i.e., Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc.; not because they love the US but because they need the US military protection. The reason Iraq is checkmated over there as we speak is because a big piece of the US Air Force is sitting in air bases in Saudi Arabia and nothing moves in that part of the world without a US AWACS plane seeing and photographing it. I doubt the US is going to readily agree to any gold for oil deals or any other financial system that will remove the US dollar as a major player in the world's financial system. So... without the US on board, how do you see the kind of financial re-alignment $30,000/oz gold envisions taking place. Realistically, I just don't see how it can happen in a short period of time. I'm not saying such a re-alignment or financial crises will never happen, it is quite possible these things may happen; however, I believe they would have to happen over a long period of time in order to be accepted wisdom by the world's population that has to live under this new world order.

I don't think presidents, kings, or czars have the power to order what you seem to be predicting will happen with the next 2 years. I think it was Tolstoy who said "History is determined by the passions of the people". Presidents and kings won't get it done.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 04:28 - ID#39828)
Biaggi finds it tougher, GO GOLD............
Sunday 19 April, 1998 ( 5:49pm AEST )

Australian Four-time world 500 cc motorcycle champion,
Mick Doohan, has won the the Malaysian Grand Prix in
Pasir Gudang.

Riding a Honda, Doohan initially trailed rival Max Biaggi
from Italy but took over the lead in the 21st of 30 laps.

Spain's Carlos Checa came in second while Biaggi took third

(Sun Apr 19 1998 04:49 - ID#266105)

Well said.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 05:12 - ID#316193)
Good Sunday Morning Newspaper Reading

(Sun Apr 19 1998 05:33 - ID#254201)
Be sure to use stops you're comfortable with, I'm dead wrong on these trades a fair amount of the time. Ultimately good money management is the key to long term trading/investment success. Good Luck

(Sun Apr 19 1998 06:26 - ID#293379)
75 mil $ net into goldfunds 1Q98

Here is an article from NY Times this AM:

The Eagle Hasn't Lost Its Wings


Gold fund managers are anxiously waiting on a handful of bankers in Europe.

The future of gold mutual funds has gone from weak -- they have lost at least a quarter of their value in 12 months -- to uncertain. The price of gold, $308.50 an ounce in London's spot markets on Friday, will be set in motion next month when the European Central Bank decides how much of it to keep in reserve to instill confidence in the Continent's new currency, the euro.

If the bank "does not back the euro with a 20 percent reserve, they would disappoint the market, and gold prices could move from here back to the $275 neighborhood," said Clay L. Hoes, portfolio manager of the Scudder Gold fund. "If they were to go to 30 percent," he said, "we could potentially see prices around the $325 range."

Faced with such uncertainty, managers of the five best-performing gold funds, ranked by three-year returns, are keeping their own gold bullion reserves low and investing in low-cost mining companies, palladium and some safe-bet exploration companies. But the managers remain optimistic.

"Three or four years from now, investors will look back and smack themselves on the head and say, 'I should have been buying gold back when the prices were at their lowest,' " said Michael Chapman, co-manager of the U.S. Global Investors World Gold fund.

Chapman raised holdings in Freeport McMoran Copper and Gold when the stock slipped below $14. "It has incredibly low-cost operations, robust growth, strong cash flow and will be around for some time," he said.

At Scudder Gold, Hoes is buying shares of Freeport, Newmont Mining and Barrick Gold. "Barrick is one of those companies you either love or you hate," Hoes said, because it sells contracts on production five years ahead, insulating it from slumps but forgoing profit if prices rise.

Gregory M. Orrell, portfolio manager of the Monterey OCM Gold fund, has a big position in Barrick but is also buying Homestake Mining, which takes the opposite tack. "Homestake's cash flow has suffered a lot more than Barrick's," he said, but added, "When you're coming off a low, an unhedged producer will provide better gains."

Skittish investors pulled a net $192 million out of precious-metals funds between October and December, but put in a net $75 million in the first quarter of 1998, according to Morningstar Inc. "I see a lot of hot money in the fund," said Richard H. Warden, senior portfolio manager of the IDS Precious Metals funds.

Warden is betting on Stillwater Mining, which mines palladium used in catalytic converters, and Francisco Gold, a Canadian exploration company with an important find in Mexico. "My cash moves around a lot," he said, "but I've stayed invested."

(Sun Apr 19 1998 06:46 - ID#253418)
The one good question
Having read through this weekend's compilation of conspiracy and confiscation theories as well as the ramblings of ANOITHER which I can not make head or tails of but which must be very wise becasue others seem impressed, I was amuse by the ONE good question asked:

"When will all of this start effecting the gold price??"
Quit, When ????

The other interesting situation seems to be with the deliveries at COMEX. Much is being made of the fact that there are three times as many delvery notices as ounces to deliver. I ask: is this the first time this has happened or the first time the writer has discovered that this is happening. Me thinks this is not to very unusual, for if it was

To the theorists: please note the price of gold was in the big picture of things pretty much unchanged last week. Seems danger is well masked and a very well kept secret.

Note for the week ahead: THE XAU is a breath away from going below its 200 day moving average, AGAIN, failing this attempt to rally and falsely breaking above its 200 day moving average for the forth time in, what three years...

When does this stuff you guys are talking about START TO EFFECT THE PRICE OF GOLD!!!!!!!!!!!1

(Sun Apr 19 1998 06:57 - ID#330175)
@ Cape Breton....................................*Go Gold*
Mornin...Beautiful day and we're already up to 47 degrees~~~

(Sun Apr 19 1998 07:03 - ID#26793)
Don't get used to the sun. We have a very dark sky and rain forecast for every day next week except next Saturday. 50F right now.

Took me an hour and 15 min. to read the posts from last night. Good stuff.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 07:08 - ID#26793)
IMF says: "many in the private sector have incurred substantial losses"

(Sun Apr 19 1998 07:12 - ID#26793)
Asians say: "greedy and imprudent western lenders must share the blame"

(Sun Apr 19 1998 07:14 - ID#266105)

Because of its fiscal management expertise and universal membership, the IMF is well placed to take
the lead in promoting greater fiscal transparency.


The above from the linked Yahoo article. I find that to
be one of the primary complaints concerning the IMF made
by its detractors, lack of fiscal transparency at the
IMF itself.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 07:22 - ID#26793)
"Insurance companies have seen their balance sheets ravaged by the crisis"

(Sun Apr 19 1998 07:25 - ID#26793)
Indeed. Our own Treasury Department also calls for transparency in others but not in itself. Its audits are a secret.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 07:29 - ID#26793)
U.K. export orders and sales slump to lowest level in 7 years. Recession seen.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 07:31 - ID#285121)
Which comes first Donald_A ?
Gold @ $290 or $320 ?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 07:33 - ID#26793)

(Sun Apr 19 1998 07:34 - ID#240120)
@jimms 06:46
Jimms, you asked the question: "When does this stuff you guys are talking about START TO EFFECT THE PRICE OF GOLD ?"

I ask you another question: "What was the price of Gold in November 1997 and what is the price of Gold NOW ?"

G o G o l d

(Sun Apr 19 1998 07:39 - ID#26793)
Israel 1st Qtr. shows 56% of businesses had sales decline averaging 11%

(Sun Apr 19 1998 07:45 - ID#26793)
Can't spur consumption in Japan by sending George Bush to by socks.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 07:50 - ID#26793)
"There is a prevailing reluctance to retain earnings in a bank"

(Sun Apr 19 1998 07:52 - ID#253418)
To your inquiriy about the price of gold in November, $285, I ask what was the price of gold 12 months ago. What is the trend? The stronger trend is still down. A minor uptrend has begun but could easily be aborted. Failure of the XAU to hold 83.70 will negate the best thing the bull arguement had - the crossing and closing above of the 200 day moving average - which incidently is still going down which means the XAU value was higher 200 days ago, to say nothing of 12 months ago.

Again when what all is being conjectured, feared and warned about start to effect the price of gold???

(Sun Apr 19 1998 07:55 - ID#26793)
On 19 November 1997, the price of gold was $304.45. Silver was $5.25. The Dow was 7724.74, the D/G Ratio was 25.37, the XAU was 74.51 and the XAU/Spot Ratio was .245

(Sun Apr 19 1998 08:08 - ID#351224)
Circling vultures
In my e-mail today;

Korea is the investors` paradise. From 24% to 45.60% of HIGH INTERESTS
are waiting for you. Why don't you read this letter carefully and join

Our firm, Seoulfund, is a private financial company dealing with bonds,
loans, real estate lease and personal asset management. As our business territory is expanding to the world, we are seeking AGENTS from the world.
As an Agent, You will be paid 3% commission based;
-on all the amount of investment of your sponsors
-on all the amount of returns of your sponsors
( HOW TO? )
If you are interested to be an agent,
-Only let us know that you are ready to be an agent

-More information about our membership will be delivered to you when you
become our agents and We will be very happy to discuss the agent position with

Agents will be work individually at home with their PC. No need of any
career or skill on our business. No Presentaions! No Meetings! It doesn't matter if
you have a job right now.

Our membership is very unique and possible only in Korea.
From 24% to 45.60% of high-yield is guaranteed. This isn't based on
the profit we make a year. This is a fixed income and you will see every month thatyour money is growing up. You can also earn $14,402 with only $100 due to our 3x7 matrix programe. INCREDIBLE!

More info at or

(Sun Apr 19 1998 08:24 - ID#284255)
When will it happen?

It's happening now.
Abeit a little slower than most would like.
But it's stopped going down and is now trending up.

We're basing out of a bear market.
At the beginnings of a bull market that will take years to mature.

Unless ANOTHER's vision comes true.
In which case it may happen at a faster rate.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 08:36 - ID#26793)
@Miles. Earn 17.9% on Korean 3 year bonds

(Sun Apr 19 1998 08:40 - ID#26793)
Worldwide computer glut has IBM issue earnings warning

(Sun Apr 19 1998 08:44 - ID#26793)
Compaq sued for trying to hide computer glut from shareholders.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 08:49 - ID#26793)
Over-capacity in the semiconductor and data storage industries

(Sun Apr 19 1998 08:53 - ID#35767)
Euro Gold
Interesting to see a comment from an investment person that anything under 20% Euro backing would be disappointing to the mkt. Further, the Veneroso quote that 315 would be the high for the year. Amazing the comments and ceilings which are developed when you get to that 1996-98 downtrend line. Cap em boys were at RR and AG's resistance. GET SHORT!!!
The net short cot has also never failed to result in a sharp selloff. If WE go north from here above 320 the BULL is definitely in place. Doesnt look like its going to happen.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Apr 19 1998 08:56 - ID#347447)
Another WOW for Another
and some THOUGHTS about SILVER in light of the THOUGHTS of Another.

First, I have just scrolled through the last evening to morning ( here in NY ) at Kitco. WOW. Let me express my appreciation, thanks, and joy at the marvelous mental and intellectual exercise offered by this forum, and especially the thoughts of one of its most welcome and stimulating participants - Another. The impact this friend has made upon Kitco cannot be over emphasized. And with style and drama too! I am in awe.
I would like to make an observation based upon the scenario that Brother Another lays out before us. If indeed he is accurately describing the structure and outline of things that are in place, happening, and to come, may we not circumvent to some extent the onerous difficulties that will be attendant to gold ownership by focusing, for the moment, upon SILVER? In a new-world revealed by locked markets and bullion and mine confiscation of gold assets, would we not see a spillover of investor concern, panic, greed, and lust for silver? Indeed, as the lunar orb in nature reflects the light of the Sun, would not the metal of the Moon acquire the brightness of the Solar star in this drama? My personal astrological work, as I have freely contributed here many times, indicates to me a monumentally significant impact upon silver around 2003 - 2006, with indications of further activity for gold and silver afterwards. But especially silver. Certain perplexing astrological subtleties I have noticed are now revealing their nature in light of Another's vision of the future. My readings are so clear for silver in the NYSE horoscope, yet so fuzzy for gold. Why?, I have been asking myself. Perhaps this is the reason why. Perhaps gold and gold shares will be unavailable to free markets, while silver will escape such a curse. Perhaps our eyes should be equally upon the white metal. My mining associate, and brilliant fellow astrologer Chad Meek has told me over and over again that in a day when gold is several thousand dollars an ounce, it will be out of the province of the ordinary investor, and on that day silver will be the common precious metal money at perhaps $150 or more. My question, for Another, and any others who would wish to help me speculate, is what will be the "legal" status and relative value of silver in such a scenario, and is this THE viable alternative for "the people." For it is always the children who suffer when the parents don't get along.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 08:56 - ID#26793)
U.S. Government takes steps to stop deflation in air fares

(Sun Apr 19 1998 09:03 - ID#398105)
A reflection of the GOLD market......

Wake up to insomnia !


(Sun Apr 19 1998 09:09 - ID#26793)
Computer glut and price slump hurting Intel

(Sun Apr 19 1998 09:19 - ID#26793)
Governments co-operating to stop internet sales tax leakage by targeting buyers, not sellers.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 09:23 - ID#31868)
Mike Sheller
If I kill a member of my family will it be considered a crime, or will it be looked upon as if I am doing society a favor? Please answer quickly as the aforementioned is turning green and it ain't from envy.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 09:24 - ID#284255)
when Mars and Saturn are in Aries.
I found this comment on the net, re Nostradamus.
Presumably it's a intrapolation

But was wondering the significance of
" when Mars and Saturn are in Aries... "

And when the time frame would be?

His Prediction For 1998
In 1998, when Mars and Saturn are in Aries... a great fire will fall from the sky.

In an instant a... flame will leap up... from the center of the earth... and to them...cause... slicing and cutting... and that which was once concealed will be revealed.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 09:26 - ID#286199)
Numismatics are not as liquid as stocks or bullion. Your post indicates that I must find you and get to you ( Houston to Colorado ) to make a transaction. That's not a liquid transaction. I can pick up a phone and with a single call, sell all of my stocks, write checks on the balance, or convert the cash to gold bullion and have it shipped to me. I can sell shares of a publicly traded company to any of several hundred brokers in Houston and get cash at a price that is determined by a huge market and can be known easily. There are far fewer coin dealers ( 10-20 in the phone book ) and they all have "opinions" on what any coin is worth. Even certified coins have a large price range based on the opinion of the buyer. I know in advance what commissions I will pay on any stock transaction. The premiums on coins change daily and every dealer wants to "see" the coins first. The fact that I must travel to get the best price makes numismatics less liquid than stocks which I can trade all day by computer. Finally, the market for rare coins is much smaller than the stock and bullion markets. The universe of people who understand and trade stocks ( even mining stocks ) is thousands of times larger than that of people who trade old coins. I believe the issues should be pounded, because people visit this site and are convinced that some portion of their assets should be invested in gold. They should know the caveats of each type of gold ownership. This is especially true in the current bear market for all types of gold ownership.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 09:27 - ID#31868)
All that means is that Mike picked up his fish, revealing his chips.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 09:29 - ID#410114)
Buckler's US $ gold chart
Buckler's $ gold chart looks bearish to me anyone agree?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 09:31 - ID#335184)
FOR ALL YOUR GREAT POSTS . I think your post re USG move to halt deflation is more a shot across the bow of a cash cow ie a shake down for campaign contributions in advance of the fall elections than anecdotal evidence of deflation, unless carma, Elliot & Sheller are all right & these things are controlled by the fate written in the stars. I believe human greed & avarice are more dependable than cyclical providence, don't you ? !



(Sun Apr 19 1998 09:41 - ID#255190)
Morning All
Just a quick note before going out.

Ted, you can't possibly be thinking straight if ANOTHER's thoughts are starting to make sense to you, eh? A bit overloaded last night??

Identity of ANOTHER:

He is probably a person about our age range, 35 to 60, who has some insider information. He's a patient cuss fer sure. Very possibly he's a computer guy who has been or is currently working on systems used by 'others'. This would give him access to insider information since he would need to know the details in order to do appropriate programming of applications. I really do not believe he is a shiek or prince or anything like that. Why? Because there is no reason for a person who is raised in that cultural environment to spill his guts to common folks.

However a technician who has insider information might feel the need to unburden himself in a constructive way to those who he finds to be like himself in the sense of social standing. Some here have likened KITCO to a bar where peple chat, etc. Well, maybe this one feels the need to tell some one what he knows just to get it off of his chest.
He could work in a central bank or gold trading operation or be in the employee of an oil interest. Any of these would give opportunity. What he has been sharing with us is the transition from one way of doing business to a different way. This means basic attitudes are changing. There is no "plan" as much as there is a developing concensus which will be played out in real actions.

I find that Oris is correct in his commentary that the 'accent' doesn't ring true to a person who is learning English as a second language. Particularly I find the use of definite ( the ) and indefinite ( a ) articles as well as singluars/plurals to be a fairly obvious sign that the person who is writing is an English speaker as a first language.

Pesonnally I do not care if the accent is a fake or the 'characters' are contrived. This is a story whose truth is made more palitable by the way the story is told. Sometimes you have to do that to get your point across. The author is telling us a story which is accelerating, so the 'translator' is brought forward to speed the explaination of the message. I find this means a sign of high intelligence and wisdom about how people operate.

At the very least his views have provoked some real rethinking about these markets and times we live in.

As for those who would critisize an 'indepth analysis' and 'literary deconstruction' I have only one thing to say:

"That which comes out of a man is what defiles him ... for out of the heart a man speaks."

We all are eventually revealed by what we say, so it is important that we listean to each other carefully. Thus the heart is revealed.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 09:43 - ID#284255)
Where goeth silver?
I wonder what Buffett's got under his piece of fish?

Imagine if Another's thoughts were to bear fruit and gold was confiscated.
And then you read Mike's latest post.

Gee wizz
All those ounces bought at $5 now worth $150.
He might be a smart man after all.
And he likes to buy cheap.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 09:43 - ID#31868)
newtron - re:deflation
Governments can do nothing to halt the impending disaster, nothing. It will run its course and it will let us know when it is over with.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 09:45 - ID#335184)
I have done some elementry research on ITRONICS & would like to speak with you on this topic. Plz Email me at TNEWTRON@AOL.COM & if you would be so kind as to supply your phone number, I would give you a call & counsel on how to expeditiously dispatch unwanted & overly stupid acquaintances & relatives.



(Sun Apr 19 1998 09:45 - ID#31868)

(Sun Apr 19 1998 09:47 - ID#31868)
Then we will have to kill the confiscators, the differing seasons exist to please the sun. One more, one less politician, no matter to me although I prefer the one less for comparative reasons.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Apr 19 1998 09:55 - ID#347447)
sharefin, tolerant
sharefin: Mars and Saturn were together in Aries this year only between March 4th and April 13th.
I TOLD Nostradamus he was off, but would he listen? No. Does any phenomenon we know of during this time window qualify?

tolerant: Don't kill ANYBODY until I look at your horoscope. Then let the ( fish and ) chips fall where they may. Spiritual release is good for what Ales you. If you can't ( er ) bury negative impulses, then express them with a heavy bag in your basement. An egg timer that rings makes a good time clock. I should take my own advice, the shape I'm in, and go back into "training." Yeah. That's it!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 09:59 - ID#31868)
and, so................

(Sun Apr 19 1998 10:01 - ID#31868)
Mike Sheller is God, if one suggests and or acts in the manner of God enough
times he becomes that God. I vanquished the being. We will start keeping records tommorrow.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 10:06 - ID#31868)
Hey Shell man, did you catch the economic
turmoil on the island at the hearings. One proud fella standing and delivering. Think I will for sure be at the next and my clown nose.

Leveling Wall Street for the soul - less bastards that they are...

Mike Sheller
(Sun Apr 19 1998 10:09 - ID#347447)
Actually, on this amazing earth we are ALL right. Fate IS written by our own greed and avarice. The events of our lives and their expression and timing have been set in motion by our own past thoughts and deeds. Nothing more or less, as in a dream. This is perfect be surrounded in physical matter by what we think, feel, wish, and do in the spirit. This is the Cosmic Law. The universe is thought made concrete. The stars, the planets, they are only cogs in the clockwork, numerals upon the face of time, that help arrange and exteriorize the particulars that were once THOUGHTS deep within. As a man thinketh he is. As ye sow, so shall ye reap. And whatsoever you ask your Father in Heaven, it is his good pleasure to give it to you. Just be sure that it is something you should want...and have.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 10:15 - ID#284255)
ANOTHER's transcripts updated

Dow/Gold ratio chart back to 1950

Lihir chart

Normandy chart

(Sun Apr 19 1998 10:16 - ID#288369)
I'll KNOW I'm rich when I see the money....and I'll KNOW I made a good investment in GOLD when I seel the profit ( there's that word again! my daily quota has been met, Clint ) ....until these happen, I GUESS. OKC bombing...April 19....a second of silence please.

I will be gone for some time, for I must get groceries. GO GOLDBUGS!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 10:16 - ID#153102)
@newtron @Donald
newtron, it has more to do with something than deflation. Maybe its a payoff for contribution from "favored smaller airlines". Corruption is not word enough.

Donald, until this news item appeared I felt some confidence that the US government could not confiscate gold mines in this country. This act of decree in the airline industry has seriously undermined my confidence on this question. The Executive Branch of this government is more and more issuing czarist decrees on its own power in administrative agencies. In a financial crisis involving gold, the private rights of mine shareholder could potentially be compromised or cancelled overnight. The Supreme Court, if they even had a mind to, could no more prevent it than they were able to prevent social security. Sadly, the same action might well include silver and platinum mining if for no other purpose than to disguise from the people that the crisis is about gold and to forestall demands for silver money. Buffet bought silver, not a silver mine, and he took his metal offshore. Any metal is anathema to fiat currency. Government knows this, but the people are in the dark and "economists" and talking heads will keep them there. When the US government gets its grip on the source of money, it will only let go when it is pried out of its cold, dead hands. You will get a plastic credit card and they will have all the money. You will be transparent and they will be behind closed doors. I hope I am wrong about the outcome, but I know that is what they will aim for.

There is no question that Canada and Australia would effectively nationalize gold mining in a financial crisis connected to gold. They are already socialist. The platinum situation shows Russia is socialist to the core. The only place where private investment in gold mines might continue would be South Africa in my view. And it's not certain there.

When precious metals mining is a government industry worldwide, how much exploration and new production do you think there will be ?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 10:17 - ID#31868)
Mike Sheller
being right Hmmmmmmmm, interesting concept

Mike Sheller
(Sun Apr 19 1998 10:18 - ID#347447)
Your THOUGHTS about the identity of Another were intelligent, and worldly wise. But may I suggest another motivation for his posts? I myself prefer to think he is indeed someone close to a strata of financial activity most of us can only speculate about. And that he shares what he knows, in measure, because he feels a kinship with the hearts and minds that tend to hold sway at Kitco. The motivation is to share important information with fellow citizens of the planet - those who may be the only ones who can receive this are Kitcoites, and such as they. What does it profit a man if he gains the world but loses his soul? The soul of Another is grand enough to include his brothers. And who is my brother? a great Master once asked? Him who does the will of my Father in Heaven. We are all in the same pew here. He has come unto his own. Heaven Forbid his own know him not. If it is supposed that my assessment of Another's motivation is naive and foolish, then I plead guilty. But if so, then we had best all throw away our gold and believe in nothing. For to be a goldbug is not to worship metal, or money. It is to worship ideals and integrity. And if that does not exist, then your gold will not help you in what is to come. I prefer to believe that it exists. And it is being expressed by Another. I accept his gift.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Apr 19 1998 10:26 - ID#347447)
A ruffle perhaps to go with the red nose, and big shoes on big feet. Everyone should have a red clown nose to pluck from the ether at just the right moment. A moment such as delights and will be treasured, when materialized by one who is decidedly no clown. I have studied with the master. Perhaps a NYCNE...New York Clown nose Exchange?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 10:40 - ID#222231)
Mike Sheller-your 10:18
Your message hit the nail on the head. Another is ( IMO ) , a kind, considerate gentleman that treats people with respect and compassion. I would put my trust and faith in such a person over those that know not respect. Mike, you are a true STAR among the few that shine with the truth.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 10:43 - ID#284255)
Living under the stars with a girl at my side
Thanks for the time frame.
I guess Nostradamus was a few seconds out.

Make love not war
Lets see how many daughters WB has.

Lihir chart - last one didn't work


(Sun Apr 19 1998 10:49 - ID#153102)
@about ANOTHER
I have considered what ANOTHER has said on this forum. My posts have shown how I see his information fits with public information and I think his information is genuine.

ANOTHER is not a prognosticator. He says no one can know the details of how this change in the reserve status of the US$ will come about. Take that to heart. That it will seem to appear out of nowhere when it happens is a necessary condition of its happening. That is why I believe that when it becomes evident that it is done, the reaction of markets will be sudden and dramatic.

A change in the reserve status of the US$ is an event so momentous and changing that it is difficult to imagine. But, I think more than well worth the effort. Because to be given a window view ahead of time into a change of this magnitude is a gift most people will never have. I agree with Earl that the only promise you can be sure of tomorrow is gold and silver coin which are in and of themselves their own guarantee.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 10:50 - ID#411112)
Speed,I could not disagree with you more,it is obvious,you have been dealing with scum bags,if thats

what they told you numismatics are listed
each day with buy and sell prices,If you buy
a MS 61 today for $510.00 and sell the next
day you will lose $20.00 thats less than a
round turn commission from any broker....and
please don't insult my intelligence by saying
stocks are liquid they are not try selling
them in a fast market,if you can through to
your broker,even if you have to mail your
coins to a HONEST coin dealer your turn
around time is days not weeks,in the case of
stocks.Just like you have meet scum bag coin
dealers,I can list for more scum bag
brokers,engage the brain before the mouth

John Disney__A
(Sun Apr 19 1998 10:55 - ID#24135)
Nationalizing Gold Mines
For Mozel.
I believe that if gold became "important"
enough, RSA would perhaps nationalize the
gold mines in line with other countries.
Another more likely possibility is that
they would simply milk the gold mining
industry via windfall taxes and the like
to prevent excessive profits going to the
shareholders. The US set the precedent for
this by imposing windfall taxes on the oil
industry in the late 1970's.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 10:55 - ID#254112)
@mozel: Thank you for your great post from yesterday 16:31
Dear Sir:
You answered my questions and gave me even more to think and to learn.
Please allow me to send you the reward of honor, a little piece of gold, together with my blessings.

Please contact me under

Very respectfully yours

Alberich the Dwarf

(Sun Apr 19 1998 11:03 - ID#410114)
New York Times Sunday Gold article a big one
In todays New York Times there is a article on gold and gold stocks.

here is the url

(Sun Apr 19 1998 11:07 - ID#153102)
@Alberich @JohnD
I accept the reward of honor and donate to the care of you and yours.

JohnD I am thinking the importance of mining as an industry in SA and the abundance of gold there might make it the exception on this matter. Even after taxation like you suggest, the reward might be well worth the risk.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 11:08 - ID#410114)
another one

(Sun Apr 19 1998 11:15 - ID#259400)
@All Re: Another
I have labored mightily through Mr. Anothers thoughts and the only thing I can come up with that makes any sense is this. If I understand the train of thought oil has been pegged to the US dollar since the oil embargo of the early 70's. If the oil producing nations were to drop the dollar thing and switch to some type of gold standard then they would in turn demand that all currencys be revalued to their "true" value to gold. In other words there would not be any explosive run up in the price of gold but a massive devaluation of the US dollar so that it would take $6000 US dollars to buy an ounce of gold as opposed to $300 US dollars. My question is who is going to be in charge of this revaluing of currencys? Any body with any thoughts please respond as the more I reas Mr Another the more confused I get.
Crazy Bill

(Sun Apr 19 1998 11:19 - ID#411112)
Rob,Heads up,you have to copy from NY Times,then post,its one of those darn sign in things


(Sun Apr 19 1998 11:27 - ID#335184)
John Disney_ A Please advise !
Who the heck is Brett Kebble & what is his connection to Rangy ?
Why is Rangy acting so mangey compared to it's rsa brothers DD & Harmoney ?



Mike Sheller
(Sun Apr 19 1998 11:42 - ID#347447)
Open your diccionarios Kitcoistsas confiscation - Con ( with ) fis ( abbreviation for "fist" ) cation ( going down ) . That's how it goes down...with a fist. A big one.
It has been done before, in a time when Americans were more cognizant and jealous of their individual liberties than they are now. In those days they at least argued BIG issues - Socialism vs Capitalism, Collectivism Vs Laissez Faire Freedom. Today socialization and government control in every facet of life is accepted like the spring rain. We instead debate ridiculous themes like "political correctness" and think we are making grand philosophic statements. We strain at gnats while we have swallowed a camel.
( I love preaching on Sunday, don't you? ) While most government confiscation happens over time, by degrees, excepting revolution, the EASIEST thing to confiscate in a hurry is the property of a minority. Imagine the illuminated wrath of an outraged citizenry if government called in all patio umbrellas or soup ladles tommorrow. WHO THE HELL DO THEY THINK THEY ARE!!! But if they take our Krands and MapleLeafs, most people would turn on those nasty goldbugs. Sound like something you'd want to squash anyhow. Goldbug. Ugh! And right now, in the financial world of millions upon millions of citizen investors, it is the goldbug who is the pitiful minority. Pitiful because he/she has no voice. Pitiful because he/she is the PERFECT TARGET of blame, the MADE TO ORDER SCAPEGOAT. Damn gold hoarders. THEY brought this on us.
There will be no pity for the pitiful. Pity the fools. The only saving grace, it is true ( and I DO have mining interests, yes, and I'll stick stubbornly to them, I will, until we go out of business or the shareholders kick the damn astrologer the hell out ) will be GOLD BULLION in hand, in your yard, under your hat, in your shoe, behind the old fence in the pasture, under the attic boards, and wherever else creativity secretes them. While it IS conceivable the "yellow market" may be dissolved, there will always be a black one.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 11:42 - ID#27499)
Dollar, Yen, Euro
I have been lurking around a few months, doing some postings, but not properly introduced myself so far. Im a dairy farmer, 51, speaking and writing mainly in finnish - a kind of apology for all the violence

I commit myself when writing in English.

I would like to thank all the contributors of this thread,which I have found most informative. Profound information and comments on relevant topics of multiple economical as well as sociological questions blended with good humour ( except the one joke about sturdy finns and ...never mind ; ) ) makes it quite unique.

My views about the world were very well reflected in the articles of The Economist quoted during this weekend. Japan, FE, Russia, Brazil, Argentina all have major problems, which, however, can be solved as long as the US keeps on ticking along with EU. The moment, when the credibility of and confidence on those economies vanishes, will IMHO be the beginning of worldwide deflationary spiral. There is really not much else to be done but trying to win more and more time and time and time for those other economies to recover before the Enevitable.

Not being familiar with monetary issues, I would very much appreciate comments on Prof. Krugmans statements in Fortune!


April 27, 1998

Who's Afraid of the Euro?

No Free Lunch

Paul Krugman

once attended a conference at which a senior Japanese official made an impassioned speech about the need to establish the yen as an international reserve currency. When my turn came, I explained that this was silly; even if the yen did become a reserve currency, it would make virtually no difference to Japan or to anyone else.

At the end of the session, the moderator thanked me for my contribution--which, he said, emphasized once again the crucial importance of the yen's role as a reserve currency. I never figured out whether this was a case of the translator having trouble with my accent, or whether it was a polite way of telling me I had said something unacceptable. But I do know that people almost always attach far more importance to the issue of reserve currencies--the role of the dollar and its rivals in international trade and finance--than the subject deserves.

And so it was inevitable that the coming of the euro --the common European currency that seems set to be introduced next year, and that may eventually challenge the dollar's dominance--would inspire irrational fear. Sure enough, a few weeks ago the intellectual fashion victims at one of those other business magazines ran an editorial entitled "The euro makes trade a new game." "Thanks to the dollar's role as reserve currency in world financial markets," they opined, "the U.S. has been able to do what no other country can--consistently import more goods than it exports.... The U.S. owes some $5 trillion to dollar holders abroad, thanks to three decades of trade deficits." Gosh, what happens if those people switch to euros?

Well, not to worry. It just isn't true that America's ability to import more than it exports is unique. Since 1980 the U.S. current-account deficit ( which includes services and investment income as well as goods ) has averaged 1.5% of GDP. That's about the same as Britain's average, less than Canada's 2.2%, and nothing like Australia's 4.2%. These countries paid for their excess imports the same way we did: by selling foreigners stocks, bonds, real estate, and so on. The only difference is that because their deficits were bigger, their debts are also bigger as a share of GDP. Ours, it turns out, aren't that large--at least on a net basis. While it's true we owe foreigners about $5 trillion, they owe us more than $4 trillion; the difference is about $800 billion, or 10% of GDP.

But doesn't the dollar's special role give us some advantage? Most of the international role of the dollar comes from its use as a "unit of account"--the measuring stick for international business. When a Japanese refiner buys Kuwaiti oil, say, the contracts are in dollars. This is a testament to U.S. economic influence, but flattery aside, it's hard to see what we get out of it.

What about our ability to borrow in dollars, to sell dollar-denominated bonds to foreigners? Hey, other countries do that too. But our debts are in our own currency! So? We still pay interest on them. True, we could inflate away our foreign debt. But we won't--and if investors thought we would, they would demand higher interest rates.

Well, then, you may say, surely the international role of the dollar forces people out there to hold dollars for transaction purposes. Yes, but not so you'd notice. When Daewoo repays a dollar loan from Sanwa, it writes a check on its account with some international bank. True, that bank itself surely maintains an account in New York, backed in part by non-interest-bearing reserves held at the Fed. So the U.S. does in effect get a zero-interest loan out of the dollar's international role--but it probably amounts to only a few billion dollars, small change for an $8 trillion economy.

Where the U.S. does get a significant free ride is from the willingness of foreigners to accept our currency--actual bills. Foreigners hold more than $200 billion of American money. Guess what kind of business requires payments of large sums in cash, by people unconstrained by official restrictions on possession of foreign exchange? That's right: the dollar is the world's premier medium of illicit exchange. Every year the U.S. ships foreigners $15 billion in cash ( about 0.2% of GDP ) , and gets real goods and services in return. Better not ask what kind.

So the threat to the U.S. from the rise of the euro is this: five years from now, when wise guys in Vladivostok make offers you can't refuse, the payoffs may be in 100-euro notes instead of $100 bills. The loss of such business might cost the U.S. economy as much as 0.1% of GDP. Somehow, I think we can live with that.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 11:50 - ID#370218)
Well, he posted again. I've read the posts from last night and this morning. Seems to me the "theme" has shifted from oil to BIS and the EURO. I have believed gold is in short supply for some time. Further, I have believed the EURO would be backed by more gold than most thought. ANOTHER has now said so many things I have already believed in I am going to have to re-think my thoughts on his words. Scary, eh. Tom

(Sun Apr 19 1998 11:56 - ID#227238)
Mike Sheller: Exactly. The process will definitely include isolation, political denigration, scapegoating and ultimately, easy confiscation. Easy from the public acceptance point of view, that is.

It's a process, our government, has honed to a keen edge, over the short course of our lifetime. Your's and mine. Given major upheaval it is as likely as the sun rising.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 11:56 - ID#411112)
Bill2j,I also have questions,no answers,if gold remains priced in dollars and the

US continues toward third world status,via
many bad trade agreements,I look at South
Africa as a clue,SA was a first world country
before Mandela,forget the politics,Cape Town
for instance is a city equal to any in
California,or Europe....a truely beautiful
city,and when I was there very
clean.....however the value of gold interms
of its currency has risen in the last 10
years from R500.00 to a high of R2000.00,its
is now a third world country all due respect
to John Disney,to understand where I'am coming from you also have to understand the Multilateral Agreement on Investments,coming soon to a country near you.

The Hermit
(Sun Apr 19 1998 12:06 - ID#369247)
@ mozel
Sir, I thank you for your many posts. Your wisdom shines a light into many areas of interest and it is greatly appreciated I assure you. Please do continue. May God be with you!

Very Respectfully,

The Hermit

(Sun Apr 19 1998 12:11 - ID#34857)
NY Times Article ...

April 19, 1998

Gold Industry Tries to Dig Itself Out

Related Articles
Bank Stocks: Have the Fireworks Ended?
The Eagle Hasn't Lost Its Wings
The New York Times: Your Money


ENVER -- The gilded dome of the Colorado state capitol makes a fitting crown for this city as the capital of the nation's gold mining industry. But the dome has a lot more luster than the industry these days: Gold prices are bumping along at levels too low for many of Denver's mining and exploration companies to make money, and there is no relief in sight.

Companies are closing mines, putting new projects on hold, laying off employees and cutting costs to try to ride out the hard times. Big losses are eroding cash reserves and share prices are in the doldrums.

And Denver's companies are not alone: The industry depression is worldwide, and companies in gold-mining countries like Australia and South Africa are in even worse shape because their costs are higher.

Many in Denver's gold industry were unprepared for a prolonged slump in gold prices. "What I think we all expected is that if gold prices went below $300, it would be for the short term," said Michele Stell, managing director of the Denver Gold Group, a trade association for the 60-odd mining companies that call Denver home.

But the spot price of gold in London, which spent most of the 1990's in the $375-to-$400 range, started declining steadily about two years ago; it has been near or less than $300 an ounce since November, and sank to an 18-year low, less than $280, in January. A modest recent rally left the spot price at $308.50 on Friday, enough for the most efficient companies, like Newmont Gold, to eke out a profit, but still dangerously low for many others.

The troubles of Echo Bay Mines Ltd., one of the largest gold companies based in the Denver area, are typical of the hard times in the United States industry.

So far this year, Echo Bay has suspended operations at one mine and scaled down at another, cut its exploration budget in half and slashed spending on new projects by 85 percent. It has laid off 800 of its 2,100 workers, cut home-office jobs to 35 from 112 and let go three-fourths of its exploration staff. It expects to produce only 500,000 ounces this year, down from 721,000 in 1997.

Those and other cost-cutting measures, combined with the company's policy of hedging gold prices by buying and selling gold futures, "have positioned us to weather a continued period of low gold prices," said Peter Cheesbrough, senior vice president and chief financial officer of Echo Bay. He said the company had already sold its entire 1998 production in the futures market for at least $340 an ounce, considerably more than recent spot prices. "Right now we're conserving cash," said Robbin Lee, manager of investor relations.

Including one-time charges for layoffs and other cost-cutting measures and a $362.7 million write-down of assets, Echo Bay lost $420.7 million in 1997.

Echo Bay's situation is grim, but better than that of some other American producers. Pegasus Gold Inc. of Spokane, Wash., had just expanded its Mount Todd mine in Australia when prices slipped too low for its output to be sold profitably, said John Pearson, vice president for investor relations at Pegasus. The company put the mine in mothballs last September and took a $353 million charge; the closing put Pegasus in default on a line of credit needed to finance a new mill.

Pegasus cut its payroll nearly in half, to 600 from 1,020, sold its jet and otherwise trimmed costs, but its stock sank anyway, from $8.50 in February 1997 to $1.60 at the end of the year. The company filed for Chapter 11 protection in January and the American Stock Exchange delisted Pegasus soon after.

Pegasus was soon joined by more casualties. The Dakota Mining Corporation was delisted from the American Stock Exchange in February, because its earnings sank below the exchange's criteria. Royal Oak Mines Inc. technically defaulted on $44 million in notes on March 17 and said it might have to suspend its nearly completed $470 million Kemess gold and copper project in British Columbia. Royal Oak got a reprieve later in March when it lined up $120 million in new financing.

"The market is in just a very ugly mood," said Dr. John Dobra, an economist and director of the Natural Resource Industry Institute at the University of Nevada in Reno. With prices so low, he said, about 60 percent of the world's production would be occurring at a loss, assuming 1996 production costs.

"The industry is in trouble if the gold price stays at $300, even $325," said Daniel McConvey, a gold-mining analyst at Goldman, Sachs. Mr. McConvey is predicting an average price this year of $310 an ounce; Ronald Londe of A.G. Edwards & Sons is more pessimistic, projecting $275 to $285 an ounce for the next 12 months and perhaps longer.

Gold's heyday seems long past. In December 1980, after years of monetary instability and high inflation, prices rose briefly to $850 an ounce, and gold was seen as a haven.

But today, with inflation fast asleep, major investors and the central banks of many countries no longer want to stockpile gold. In 1997, Australia and Argentina sold most of their gold reserves. Other causes of low prices, analysts say, are depressed demand in East Asian nations and uncertainty over European gold policy."As long as inflation stays under control," Mr. Londe said, "gold really has nowhere to go."

Many producers are responding as Pegasus and Echo Bay did, by cutting production. Mines that would have produced about 150 tons of gold in 1998 have been closed in recent months, according to David Christensen, a gold analyst with Merrill Lynch in San Francisco. "We're going to need about 400 tons of permanent mine closures before the price is stabilized," Mr. Christensen said.

Such contraction would be painful for the shakiest companies but would leave the lowest-cost producers, like Newmont, relatively unscathed. Newmont spent an average of just $250 to extract each ounce last year; nonproduction costs like exploration, interest payments and overhead add $50 or so an ounce, leaving Newmont a slender profit even at today's depressed prices.

Newmont Mining, which owns 94 percent of Newmont Gold, has tightened its belt, too, laying off 500 people. But "we're not in danger of closing any mines," said Doug Hock, a company spokesman.

Companies large and small, said Ms. Stell of the gold trade association, "are in a survival mode."

The Hermit
(Sun Apr 19 1998 12:15 - ID#369247)
Your posts, as usual, give much food for thought. Your "THOUGHTS" are appreciated, as are your style and demeanor. I thank you for sharing your "THOUGHTS" with us. Please continue!


The Hermit

(Sun Apr 19 1998 12:19 - ID#34857)
And here's the other one...
April 19, 1998

The Eagle Hasn't Lost Its Wings

Related Articles
Gold Industry Tries to Dig Itself Out
Bank Stocks: Have the Fireworks Ended?
The New York Times: Your Money


old fund managers are anxiously waiting on a handful of bankers in Europe.

The future of gold mutual funds has gone from weak -- they have lost at least a quarter of their value in 12 months -- to uncertain. The price of gold, $308.50 an ounce in London's spot markets on Friday, will be set in motion next month when the European Central Bank decides how much of it to keep in reserve to instill confidence in the Continent's new currency, the euro.

If the bank "does not back the euro with a 20 percent reserve, they would disappoint the market, and gold prices could move from here back to the $275 neighborhood," said Clay L. Hoes, portfolio manager of the Scudder Gold fund. "If they were to go to 30 percent," he said, "we could potentially see prices around the $325 range."

Faced with such uncertainty, managers of the five best-performing gold funds, ranked by three-year returns, are keeping their own gold bullion reserves low and investing in low-cost mining companies, palladium and some safe-bet exploration companies. But the managers remain optimistic.

"Three or four years from now, investors will look back and smack themselves on the head and say, 'I should have been buying gold back when the prices were at their lowest,' " said Michael Chapman, co-manager of the U.S. Global Investors World Gold fund.

Chapman raised holdings in Freeport McMoran Copper and Gold when the stock slipped below $14. "It has incredibly low-cost operations, robust growth, strong cash flow and will be around for some time," he said.

At Scudder Gold, Hoes is buying shares of Freeport, Newmont Mining and Barrick Gold. "Barrick is one of those companies you either love or you hate," Hoes said, because it sells contracts on production five years ahead, insulating it from slumps but forgoing profit if prices rise.

Gregory M. Orrell, portfolio manager of the Monterey OCM Gold fund, has a big position in Barrick but is also buying Homestake Mining, which takes the opposite tack. "Homestake's cash flow has suffered a lot more than Barrick's," he said, but added, "When you're coming off a low, an unhedged producer will provide better gains."

Skittish investors pulled a net $192 million out of precious-metals funds between October and December, but put in a net $75 million in the first quarter of 1998, according to Morningstar Inc. "I see a lot of hot money in the fund," said Richard H. Warden, senior portfolio manager of the IDS Precious Metals funds.

Warden is betting on Stillwater Mining, which mines palladium used in catalytic converters, and Francisco Gold, a Canadian exploration company with an important find in Mexico. "My cash moves around a lot," he said, "but I've stayed invested."

(Sun Apr 19 1998 12:27 - ID#285121)
Mike Sheller
Hat's off to your 11:42 post Mike. I like to keep my mapleleafs in their home land, as I am a US sheeple.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 12:37 - ID#402148)
Barrons quotes him as seeing gold in range of 290 to 315 USD in 1998. Has he lowered his targets or is this a misprint/misinterpretaion of his current views? Thanks. HB

(Sun Apr 19 1998 12:40 - ID#240120)
@ Mike Sheller Re: 10:18 post
Thanks a lot Mike, I too accept ANOTHERS gift, and it is some gift !

G o G o l d

(Sun Apr 19 1998 12:40 - ID#238295)
Another: Glad you are back.

My problem with your thesis is that it flies in the face of everything we are told about the gold market. The media informs us endlessly that the CBs want to reduce gold's role in the international monetary system. Gold accounts for a much smaller proportion of international reserves today than a decade ago.

My take is that gold's role in the international monetary system will take a great leap forward when the secular paper bull ends. But the size and timing of this great leap remain very uncertain.

An interesting quote from Marc Faber -- Dr. Doom -- supporting my argument

Marc Faber: A Brighter Future For Gold?
International Institutional Investor - March 5

Faber thinks "its probably best" to accumulate gold in 1998, and he explains that although the price of gold could come
down 10 or 20 percent, the Dow Jones industrial average could lose 60 percent. "I think that the world in the next
recession will move back to a system where you have a mechanism to regulate financial flows -- in other words, to a
fixed-exchange monetary system," he concludes. "I dont think there will be a return to a fixed gold standard, but I think
the worlds financial powers may very well go back to a system where gold has a role to play."

(Sun Apr 19 1998 12:49 - ID#222231)
Good day to you Tom. I'm glad I was wrong in my interpretation. Will not be the 1st time, right Tom?

Re: your last post to me about another, most have feelings unless one is a pyschopath. Just because someone writes on the web does not excuse rudness and bad manners. ( myself included for I have behaved in a this manner on occasion for which I truly regret. ) I think I know you well enough from your thoughts that you would not condone your children or anyone else behaving in such a way.

Once a bully starts taking your lunch money, he will continue to do so until you fight back. ( as a kid I had to learn street fighting not because I wanted to, but because I had to. ) I noticed last nite that Liberty_A asked a question of another that did not use invectives. I hope that LGB will post in the future in the same vein. If he would, I would welcome him with open arms whether in agreement or disagreement, yes!

ITMW, buy physical gold for now at affordable prices, and later silver because gold will be too expensive, no!

P.S. Last nite was really busy and interesting, and I could'nt stay to see or appreciate all of the action because I was tired from feeding chickens all day.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 12:57 - ID#238295)
If the WGC had any sense they should by now have idenified key EU policy makers who will decide the level of gold reseves and the rules governing future national CB sales. They should be digging up dirt on these people so they can be pressured to make the right decisions. On the carrot side of the ledger large sums of money should be available to reward those who help the industry and its shareholders.

This may sound crass, but we all know that blackmail and bribery are not infrequent when decisions like this are being made. The anti-gold forces probably are doing the same thing. Time for the industry to stop acting like lily livered pansies and play the game like serious GROWN UPS.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 13:08 - ID#31868)
Mike Sheller - just showed my Mother your post (hmmmm, that doesn't read
right!?!? ) she said she is a tad wrinkled but willing.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 13:20 - ID#427357)
...all looking for the NEXT B-U-B-B-L-E
Well over a year ago I posted this comment - it follows verbatim. The change since then is that the World's Financial Bubbles are yet larger, and bullion and gold shares are still lower. HOWEVER, the big potential for hard assets lusters even more. It's an explosion begging to happen.
... late 1996:

"THE MARKET CAPITALIZATION OF ALL GOLD STOCKS WORLDWIDE IS ABOUT $100 BILLION - Equivalent to Chicken Feed or Chump Change! To put this into some type of perspective I would like to SHARE the following data.
The latest report from the Bank of International Settlements ( BIS 1996 ) indicates that in April 1995, THE DAILY TURNOVER ASSOCIATED WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE CONTRACTS WAS $1.2 TRILLION. That's more than double the size of the Forex market just six years before, and more than 100 times the size in 1973. Whereas the foreign exchange business has experienced an explosive 23.2% compounded annual growth rate since 1973, the most recent six year grow is down to a "walk" of ONLY 12.2% per annum. So you understandably say, "BIG DEAL, SO WHAT?"
Since time immemorial gold has been considered money - universal foreign exchange if you will. Despite the fact that central bankers diligently strive to convince the public otherwise, their actions totally belie their true feeling about the "barbarous metal." Why else would the central banks of the world still hoard more than one-third of all the gold ever produced?! Gold is money, always has been, and always will be. "SO GET TO THE POINT VRONSKY!"
All of the gold ever mined and still existing comes in at approximately 120,000 metric tonnes. At a current spot price of $385 per ounce, the world's hoard of the yellow metal has a market value of about $1.5 Trillion. Now recall that not only is gold money, many years ago the noble metal was the only vehicle for the settlement of international payments. Consider the following - if for whatever reason ( economic, political, monetary, terrorist etc. ) AND FOR JUST ONE DAY Forex operations decided to redirect its activities to acquire real money with intrinsic value for the purpose of international settlement payments, it's plain to see there "AIN'T" enough gold to go around! UNLESS, THAT IS UNLESS the paper currency price of the shinny metal would sky-rocket. But where would the price of gold zoom if the international settlements demanded hard currency payments for more than one day? Two days? Three days etc.? Far-fetched you say?? Then consider this. If I buy something from you, and you know I am dead broke, will you still accept my paper check, simply because I still have a blank one in my checkbook? But it goes even further.
Each and every working day of the year ( about 220 per year, depending upon the work ethic of your country ) there are $1.2 Trillion in foreign currency transactions - if there were no more growth, $264 Trillion is transacted every 12 months. THAT'S 176 TIMES THE VALUE OF ALL EXISTING GOLD! Remember gold is just another currency. Now we go from the ridiculous to the sublime!
If just three percent ( 3% ) of the daily Forex transactions thought Barton Biggs ( Morgan Stanley ) might, just might be right - and direct the paper ( fiat ) money to purchase gold stocks - ONE DAY'S INCREASED DEMAND REPRESENTS $45 BILLION VERSUS THE CURRENT MARKET CAPITALIZATION OF PALTRY $100 BILLION. Do you really think it would stop after just one day?! No way Jos!
Gold is money - Gold is the only universal currency. Always has been - always will be. To think otherwise is be the gullible and naive victim of the illusions created by the politicians.
I would like to leave you with one concern, worry, uncertainty, apprehension, fear, anxiety, suspicion, wonder, doubt and mistrust that there might soon be a change in focus in the Daily $1.2 Trillion Foreign Exchange market. This comes from the horse's mouth - FRB of San Francisco Economic Letter, Nr. 96-15, May 3, 1996: "Global Payments in the 21st Century: A Central Banker's View." And I quote: "But we central bankers are concerned about whether everybody's paying proper attention to the accompanying risks. The risk I want to focus on is settlement risk - the risk that a transaction won't be completed because one of the counterparties fails to settle - which has the potential to trigger further defaults."
I rest my case...except to mention that I personally do not feel comfortable with just 3% of my portfolio in some form of gold investment as INSURANCE against the vagaries of financial and economic life. Forgive me, while I ask a personal and probably impertinent question: At various times throughout the year - every year - do you discontinue payments on your house/life/health/car insurance, because you feel lucky that nothing will happen while you are not covered. Foolhardy?? It is just a matter of time before the demand flood gates for gold shares open."

1998 UPDATE:

--- Then there is about $10 Trillion in US Stocks & Bonds

--- Then there is another $10 Trillion in Japanese Savings

...all looking for the NEXT B-U-B-B-L-E

(Sun Apr 19 1998 13:27 - ID#153102)
@Confiscation @Sorex
With all due respect to the power of propaganda, I think goldbugs are just too loveable and too hard to be squashed as easily as Earl and Sheller think. You could hurt your fist trying to squash a goldbug.

The connection between financial troubles and gold are not going to be apparent to the masses any more than the vital role played by gold in international trade is apparent to them now. The US Government is certainly not going to draw anyone's attention to the fact that gold is money. People might ask about the Constitutional prohibition that No State shall make... anything except gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debt for crying out loud. With its stable of economists who spread nothing but confusion and darkness about "economics" going on TV and writing about a thousand different explanations for financial distress and a thousand different policy prescriptions, there is going to be less understanding this time than there was even during the Depression. No, goldbugs aren't worth the risk and the hassle.

If you are really worried about it, take the saying that the best defense is offense to heart.

This article reads like propaganda to me. It's the same old crap that only bad people want cash. That was the official Soviet line, wasn't it ?

The fact is that Central Banks worldwide are holding US$ as reserves in massive amounts. The fact that oil transactions are denominated and settled in US$ is the reason the US$ is a reserve currency. Economists are making propaganda all the time with percents and ratios for the purpose of talking other people out of their own self-interest. Keynes is the prototype. But, people who want substance for substance can't be fooled by paper flimflam artists. Flimflam out of Oxford and Harvard and Princeton and the other government approved and subsidized academic propaganda factories doesn't work on the unindoctrinated. Their feet are still on the ground. Try feeding paper to your cows.

Gold is the pledge for performance in international trade and gold is the money wanted by a significant portion of the players in international trade. The US$ is not as good as gold and its value as a holding in foreign treasuries depends on its status as a reserve currency. When that status changes, those holdings will decrease also and that is called devaluation.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 13:33 - ID#342282)
Mozel re your 10:16
My sentiments exactly. I'm glad you expressed it so well. I couldn't have done as well. If I had the legs of Fred Astair, I might come out ahead, but you pays yo money and takes yo chances. Thanx, Charlie

(Sun Apr 19 1998 13:37 - ID#222231)
Glad you are back and writing excellant posts with a vengence. My God, I'm begining to agree with you. Now that's scary!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 13:49 - ID#342282)
Vronsky re next Bubble
You got that right. It sounds like marginal madness- who lights the fuse? -- Also re your email, I can't send, but can receive--I have no website; what do you charge? The idea is just a concept at this point. Email is Thanx again, Charlie

(Sun Apr 19 1998 13:52 - ID#31868)
when I grow up
Nah, silly thought...

(Sun Apr 19 1998 13:56 - ID#153102)
@Chas & Pete
Glad we are syncopating. Pete, I'm glad you spoke up about ANOTHER. I feel like his information plus the research of so many posters is finally making some sense, not of the gold market, but of the politics of the political metal.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 14:04 - ID#342282)
Swiss Gold Franc
I have posed this question before and have contacted BIS and a Swiss broker. No response yet. -- What is the current total issue of Swiss Gold Francs?--. Anybody know? If so, please advise. Thanx, Charlie

(Sun Apr 19 1998 14:06 - ID#238422)
Mike Sheller\your 10:18
Brother Mike, I respect you very much.
But you are wrong on the subject of Another's
motive to post here. I don't want to waste your
time explaining why I think Another's kindness
is not envolved in sharing his "thoughts".

In real world you do not have free lunch, yes?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 14:11 - ID#153102)
"FRB of San Francisco Economic Letter, Nr. 96-15, May 3, 1996: "Global
Payments in the 21st Century: A Central Banker's View." And I quote:
"But we central bankers are concerned about whether everybody's paying
proper attention to the accompanying risks. The risk I want to focus on
is settlement risk - the risk that a transaction won't be completed
because one of the counterparties fails to settle - which has the
potential to trigger further defaults.""

The settlement risk is also the risk that has the oil selling countries concerned. What I think this quote shows is that there is a divergence between the concerns of the Central Bankers, American included, and the ambitions of Rubin and the Administration. It is also a confirmation of the information from ANOTHER.

It would be very helpful in understanding the politics of gold if the origin of the idea of gold leasing were identified.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 14:14 - ID#60253)
ALL, I could not finish from last post. Have time and will continue now for a short time.

Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 01:42
chas ( Another, rephrase of question ) ID#342282:
In reference to large volume oil producers' sales for currency ( paper ) , do they have to use this currency to buy the gold they prefer, or is there another method or methods to acquire the gold? The main question is, if there is another method"?

Mr Chas,
Yes. Many say, ME producers have no extra money for gold. They are in debt and "just making it". I say, they have much money, just not "your perception of money"! Many producers do not pump at "all out rate", and worlds largest proven reserves are in ground. In "gold market world", oil is wealth, and oil is money! It is the "good trade" to use "oil in ground" as backing to buy much paper "commitment for gold"! Future "currency" price of oil in ground is much unsure, but gold has world CB backing to be of great value, always! CB say, "your oil at $15 to $25, this is good as long as flowing", and say also " your oil pumps shut off, what price gold to turn back on?"
You see, in real world, gold is money, oil is money. But paper currency, it is only a receipt for commerce.

Thank you

(Sun Apr 19 1998 14:18 - ID#238295)
All the discussion here about confiscation and punitive taxes on mines would be laughable if it wasn't so pathetic with POG still in the dumps. Such actions are inconceivable unless gold moves far higher than it is today -- probably $1,000 an ounce or more -- and the financial markets are smashed completely. There will be ample time for holders of gold bullion aand gold shares to sell their holdings for huge profits. Drifter was right on target here.

Let's worry about getting POG to $350 this year.We have a long way to go on the upside before confiscation and/or taxation becomes a realistic concern.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 14:23 - ID#153102)
Thanks for sharing your information and views.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 14:25 - ID#60253)
Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 00:20
mozel ( @JTF ) ID#153102:
A man who dueled as ANOTHER proposes would have had no honor. He would have been shot down like a dog by the seconds. Without trustworthy, honorable seconds to enforce the law of dueling, there is not a duel, just a fight and shooting on sight.

Mr. Mozel,
You do understand the world, as it is, not as you are told! You thoughts offer much.

In the Duel of Gold and Currencies, this time, no seconds will stand! I think, they Duel also. But, your perception of 'Honor" I agree with!

Thank You

(Sun Apr 19 1998 14:31 - ID#153102)
We agree. But between Gold and Currencies is a War, not a duel, I think.

Was Gold Leasing by CB's an accidental mistake or an intentional mistake do you think ?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 14:32 - ID#31868)
Delightful to chat with you this a.m. Please inform me if the files opened correctly, if not, I shall resend. Namaste'

(Sun Apr 19 1998 14:36 - ID#31868)
Mike Sheller and I have spoken and agree, if you are ever on the Long Island you are invited for pickels and beer, leave your wallet at home, you will not be allowed to spend any of your own money!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 14:41 - ID#153102)
Duty calls. Be back later.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 14:46 - ID#427357)

ref: mozel ( @Vronsky ) -- your COMMENT:

"It would be very helpful in understanding the politics of gold if the origin of the idea of gold leasing were identified."

mozel, you will find abundant insights on this subject as researched by the Internet's expert on GOLD LEASING, Ted Butler. A collection of his thoughts may be found at following website. But it will be necessary to close the space in front of the word "-eagle" BEFORE posting the URL
to the Internet Locator:
Once there, just click "Ted Butler"

(Sun Apr 19 1998 14:51 - ID#31868)
Those that are deceitful have already lost the good fightfor they knew nothing of the engagement, and they never will.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 14:58 - ID#256326)
Somehow or other your email address has become corrupted in my mailer. If youi saee this please send to me at Thanks.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 15:00 - ID#238422)
Thank you, brother Tolerant, although I prefer
beer with shrimp or smoked salmon. Hopefully,
you and Mike will buy me these combination,
otherwise I must drink vodka if only pickles
are available. Seems like free lunch on Long
Island is a possibility...

Mike Sheller
(Sun Apr 19 1998 15:05 - ID#347447)
oris, mozel, old gold, another, war...and peace
Brother Oris - the thought that there is no free lunch is the way of the world, as is war. The thought that there can be people who have enough so that they voluntarily make a free lunch available to their brothers is noble. I believe there is nobility in this world. It may be as miniscule, at times, as the amounts of gold in the average ton of brecchiated quartzite, but it is there. Its presence must be paid homage, lest this become a world in which NO man of reason would wish to live. I look forward to consuming pickles and vodka with you someday!
mozel, old gold, another: We can still have our ideals, and comport ourselves as individuals as closely to them as is humanly possible, while acknowledging that it is the way of the world to think nothing of doing things we consider to be outrageous or impossible, with frequent and impassive regularity.
Anyone who has watched "enlightened nations" throw their children into battle and allow them to be ground up like hamburger over their political agendas will understand. If they take your sons, and now your daughters, and feed them to Moloch, to be slain and mutilated for their power, how kindly will they look upon your "right" to own gold when it suits them to take it away? A disciplined second in a duel? In even a boxing match, a decent second will throw in the towel when his man is getting hurt. In war, they will just send in another man's son.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 15:06 - ID#31868)
while some choose to write in ice, such is not the case with good brother mike and me. Our words are golden and we write in stone.

Your conversation and company would be a privilege.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 15:09 - ID#60253)
Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 03:38
Drifter ( ANOTHER'S Thoughts ) ID#270447

Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 14:18
OLD GOLD ( ) ID#238295:
There will be ample time for holders of gold bullion and gold shares to sell their holdings for huge profits. Drifter was right on target here. Let's worry about getting POG to $350 this year. We have a long way to go on the upside before confiscation and/or taxation becomes a realistic concern.

Mr. Drifter and Mr. Old Gold,
If you search the "thoughts" posts provided by Mr. Sharfin, many of your conclusions are addressed. Many do feel that if "the gold mines were safe in the past", "they will be safe in the future". I submit this persons thinking for your consideration:
"The Western public has always thought of gold as money. Even after the 70s and 80s, most private investors held a small side thought, that gold was still, somehow dollar money. It was only during the late 80s and 90s that people started to completely lose the connection of paper spending money and gold. Clearly, all evidence shows that prior to the 90s and particularly prior to the 50s, the push was to change the publics thinking away from gold money, to paper currency as money. In this political climate, gold mine investments were the correct move, as the business of gold was encouraged over the usage of gold as money! That is why the metal was called in and the mines were untouched.
However, today, the change will be counter to the prevailing public opinion, that gold "is not money". The world debt system and currency exchange, as we have know it will implode and leave little room for political maneuvering. The governments will revalue gold and "demand" that the public carry it and use it! It will be the source of all gold, the mines, that will be controlled! That's Controlled, with a capitol "C", not confiscated!"

Mr. Old Gold,
Sir, I do read your writings and consider your thoughts!

Thank You

Mr. Mick
(Sun Apr 19 1998 15:16 - ID#345321)
tolerant1 - what do you think of this bullion vs. numismatic thing?
is the numi worth the extra bucks to "avoid" confiscation, if that is possible?
By the way, tried to contact you again last night. Will try again some other time. All goes well, thanks for your thoughts.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 15:17 - ID#256326)
Many,perhaps all, of the mines will end up being owned by the lenders who have also lent mine managements rope for their own hanging. Although it is a special case, the Pegasus story is instructive in this regard.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sun Apr 19 1998 15:22 - ID#384350)
A wayward deer with unusual talents is erring through the Artic circle when he has a vision.

He meets a talking snowman who sings to him the merits of "Silver and Gold". The reindeer realises what it was he started after, and returns home a wiser deer. His talents are soon discovered, and to his fulfillment he becomes a hero, a legend.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 15:24 - ID#256326)
Kitco friends
Later today ( approx. 1800 EDT ) , after subscribers have had their fill, I will post a free issue of GFL at:

This will be downloadable and is in Acrobat pdf file format. An Acrobat reader is also available at the site if you do not have one. Most of the issue has to do with the US stock market which may be the deciding issue
in the short term for gold.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 15:28 - ID#238295)
Another: Thanks for your reply!

You seems quite certain the mines will be nationalized or taxed heavily and you may be right. But I still say that gold and gold shares will soar into the stratosphere before that happens.

This could be similar to the excess profits taxed imposed on oil companies in the 1970s. The oil stocks had huge upward moves before these taxes became effective.

And after years of media "spin" disparaging gold's value, it will take a lenghthy propaganda campaign to convince the public that gold is now the only real money and the mines must be tightly controlled. Plenty of time for smart holders to bail out with huge profits.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 15:32 - ID#31868)
Mr. Mick - Happy to hear such!!!
Regarding the past evening, outside looking at the harbor with neighbors, sorry I missed you. Call ANYTIME...

Hmmmmmmmm, go for the bullion, rare coins are solid as an investment but that only holds true if things do not go to hell in a hand basket, then, the weight of the metal speaks and knows no age nor special privilege...

(Sun Apr 19 1998 15:38 - ID#31868)
Mr. Mick
Regarding confiscation, Tommy J's tree will get watered if they try that again.

The pen is mightier than the sword but no match for lead...

(Sun Apr 19 1998 15:39 - ID#304282)
You talk about the return to gold as a currency. When this current system of fiat currencies fall, what is stopping governments from joining to form a single, world-wide fiat currency? This is obviously the trend around the world. Look at the Euro. Sure gold makes more sense, but when have politicians done what makes sense? I do not see governments surrendering the power they have with a fiat system, to change to a gold backed one. I believe you see things as how they should be in a perfect world, but things are often much different in reality.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 15:45 - ID#317193)
Pete- thanks for the response
Enough said on the subject of common courtesy. On ANOTHER my conclusions on his THOUGHTS are reserved until I get a handle on his motives. I tend to side with brother oris on this. No free lunch. Oris seems to have a better or at least some idea on this-I'm at two extremes and don't like the conclusions I reach from self-serving motives. No offense intended-just my nature. Tom

(Sun Apr 19 1998 15:47 - ID#288369)
@ Aaron.....I am not here to duel, sir.....
I am here to gaze upon the beautiful belly dancer who wears no more than purple silk and gold coins....aaahhhh....

(Sun Apr 19 1998 15:47 - ID#235378)

(Sun Apr 19 1998 15:49 - ID#60253)
Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 14:31

mozel ( @ANOTHER ) ID#153102:

" Was Gold Leasing by CB's an accidental mistake or an intentional mistake do you think?"

Mr. Mozel,

This world of money, it is a fierce one! I ask all, does anyone know a money manager with money for loan at 2%? No? Does not even the bank of Canada sell gold outright and receive "high" interest on cash? Is a CB that sells/leases gold dumb? NEVER!

If they sell gold, a way is clear to "bring gold back" for the nation! Canada has local mines, Australia has local mines, Belgium has South African mines! If they lease gold, it is for a purpose to buy "something" for the new supply to the market! The interest on the loan is for public view, as a "free gold loan" is not acceptable!

It truly started with Barrick, in Canada in the 80s. It was a "thin market", but grew big in oil. I think "intentional mistake" that was, as is said, "trial balloon"?

Thank You

(Sun Apr 19 1998 15:49 - ID#31868)
Gianni Dioro
Silver Bells! eh!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 15:49 - ID#24864)
Sunrise Monday, Good Morning
Australian Financial Review weekly article on Gold for you to read along with the NY Times version below.
Ends with usual yada yada about "what to do with massive remaining gold stocks held by central banks in Europe"
Sharefin my mate in Cairns, thanks for the NDY chart. It's been a bit irrationally exuberent ( sp? ) lately, can't possibly get above $1.78 recent triple top. Nobody wants gold stocks yada yada. Morning Nick@C

(Sun Apr 19 1998 15:53 - ID#31868)
Studio_R -
ottmar Liebert & Luna negra- fabulous - track 9 - a piano player who dreams of being me...

Still alive and well and spanking every child who attended Juillard, yee hah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 15:56 - ID#31868)
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, and all the gold in the world,
what is the value of a soul.........Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...................

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:02 - ID#384350)
Tolerant1, rudolph
I tried to rent it today, they didn't have it. If I didn't know that deer better I could have sworn he was smoking peyote! Oh well, ANOTHER will be the snowman who talks to me about Silver and Gold.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:04 - ID#60253)
Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 15:17
aurophile ( ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS ) ) ID#256326:
Many, perhaps all, of the mines will end up being owned by the lenders who have also lent mine management's rope for their own hanging. Although it is a special case, the Pegasus story is instructive in this regard.

Mr. Aurophile,
I think, in the years to come, many lenders, as Bullion Banks, will find much rope in great supply, offered to them, not the mines! These banks, are in middle with no way to settle, as national governments buy mine production! It is today, treasuries only can print currency, so will it be tomorrow that only government buy and give citizens real money, gold!

I will be gone for a time! We talk again, yes?
Thank You

(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:08 - ID#75206)
OLD GOLD - Confiscation & Windfall Profits Taxes
I agree that gold will be many times higher than it is now before the US government even considers a 'windfall profits tax'. Also, there would have to be a compelling ( read politically expedient ) reason to invoke that disastrous policy again. Economists are in almost universal agreement the windfall profits tax on oil was a disaster. It acted to suppress supply and exacerbated the shortage. It is no coincidence that after Ronald Reagan eliminated price controls on oil and gas in 1981 prices on those commodities started to fall dramatically until we had oil at under $10/barrel in 1986 and natural gas at $.50/MCF compared to $4.00/MCF in the late 70s and early 80s. As for nationalization of gold mines; I can't imagine a financial scenario under which any politician would even consider that kind of action. It would constitute political suicide in the US. They would be smeared by their political opponents as communists and you would see pictures of whoever proposed such action being morphed into pictures of Lenin, Stalin, Mao, and Castro in political ads. It is just inconceivable to me... unless there were such a financial catastrophe affecting the average citizen that John & Mary Public supported such action. In any event, as you have said, there will be plenty of time to get out of gold stocks before those changes happen.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:08 - ID#347447)
Another, old gold
Yes, the world of money is "fierce." But why do we quibble about words like "confiscation" and "Control" when we are talking of practically the same thing, are we not? One takes away an object, another takes away a right. In such Control of the mines, will a miner find it suitable to set his own production and sell his gold to whom ever he wishes at the prevailing "gold-carrying" citizen price? If not, then we have both confiscation and control. Are we to witness a savage horror upon humanity once again by puppet masters? And in such a case, is it enough, Mr Old Gold, to as you say have "plenty of time for smart holders to bail out with huge profits"? Bail out into what KIND of a world? Mr Another 's moral compunctions are veiled, but apparent. Where are yours Mr. Old Gold? Are you a fierce tiger in this world of money? Or will your "huge profits" be simply fodder for the next form of confiscation...or "Control"?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:09 - ID#288369)
@T#1.......I grow weary of common dreams.....
coaxing me....can they be carefully blown? As worden sand gently moved by the easterly wind. Come now and sail the island that is long, past the point of the key into the warm milky waters of our gulf...and I shall meet you there with gift from our forefathers. Set the Sail, my trusted friend.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:09 - ID#27499)
Complex digestive systems
Mozel, thanks for your reply! Thats what I figured, but I would love to watch Krugmans statements torn down piece by piece. I dont get a good grip although I know its all about premises.
Warning! Be careful with the ruminants! We used to have a Nobel prize winner named A. I. Virtanen, who fed his cattle with pure, factory made cellulose, urea and minerals for decades and with satisfactory results!

John Disney__A
(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:11 - ID#24135)
If the Cape is the THIRD WORLD then the
FIRST WORLD must be a lot better than it was
when I left it.
For Robnoel -
While I appreciate your due respects... All I know
1. I have a live in maid for 100 US a month
2. A gardener for 8$/day
3. Ist class well maintained freeways into Capetown
4. Satellite TV
5. Televised Horseracing from all tracks
6. World wide sports televised.
7. Outstanding computer/internet support amd maintenance
8. Excellent mechanics for cars
7. A choice Shopping malls, supermarkets, or street
hawkers for food.
8. Good reds for 3$/bottle .. excellent ones for 6$.
9. Good dentists and doctors.
10. Excellent postal and telephone system

... Gee rob If this is the third world, I think you
have the numbering order upside down. My Only problem
is that I have to order Classical CDs from the UK.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:15 - ID#317193)
Brother oris a request-what are your thoughts on the motivation? On another subject, when you have the time, I have a friend who inquired about firearms for self-defense. I said I would pass on the query. Seems he has several hunting guns and a marlin "short" rifle that fires 9mm pistol ammo. He asks: Enough protection during civil unrest? Any comments appreciated. Tom

Mike Sheller
(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:16 - ID#347447)
wonder what his burgers tasted like

Mike Sheller
(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:17 - ID#347447)
John Disney
Tell me the fishing's good, and I'm comin' over

John Disney__A
(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:18 - ID#24135)
Truth Commision
For Brother Oris ..
You asked about PW crocodile Botha and the
TRC ... I posted you a write up .. did you see it
OK my brother??

(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:18 - ID#240120)
@ OLD GOLD Re: 15:28
You say "that gold and gold shares will soar into the stratosphere" and I think you are right.

But what would you rather have when that time arises, lots of bits of paper saying you are the holder of so many xyz shares or physical gold ?

We all know how fast gold can rise and as ANOTHER pointed out on Sun Dec 07 1997 18:45:

"All should make ready and be holding metal only, as the turn will move $100+ the first day and $200 the second day as Comex is closed! It will trade no more from the 3rd day on! The gold market of your youth will be no more! For those who were smart from experience not to buy at $400, will look at $600 as "the deal of a lifetime".

Why hold gold mining stocks when you can own THE REAL THING ? How can gold mining stocks out perform THE REAL THING.

When Gold soars into the stratosphere ALL the rules will change.

G o G o l d - Buy physical and hold.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:19 - ID#341189)
Question for anyone, please.
How many ounces of gold are thought to exist above ground in the world today?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:23 - ID#342282)
BILLD re tornado & Creek
I hope to God you all got thru ok. Saw touchdown near Clover. If you are still ok, here's trip. Go S out of Blacksburg on hway 5. Catch 97 on S. When you get to Smyrna, do 180 and go back up 97 N till you cross a reasonable size creek. S of cr and E of 97 is old Love property. Cr crosses rd and heads toward Broad R. Hope this helps. Couldn't find topos.

John Disney__A
(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:26 - ID#24135)
Horrors of the THIRD WORLD.
For Mike ..
the mountain streams are stocked
with trout. The lakes are loaded with
small mouth bass.
Skin divers take crays and abalone.
I dont follow the salt water fishing but
Whales calve within 100 km of where I
am .. at Hermanus and at Hout Bay.
Every sport abounds with the exception
of snow skiing.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:27 - ID#261269)
Thanks Chas...Tornado passed by..
Will try your directions to Wolf go gold ( TONIGHT )

(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:33 - ID#255284)
Gold converter

132,000 tonnes, that's 4,243,897,997 Troy Oz.

Quixotic 1
(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:34 - ID#48200)
ANOTHER, has just pulled open the curtains on WB and Mr. Munk !!
Peter Munk, ex ABX captain. I think Mr. ANOTHER just pulled open the curtains on Mr. Skunk, and his switch out of Gold and into other hard assets ( real estate ) . If the end game for Gold, is to be confiscated and nationalized, then what better time to get out then now, rather than trying to time the top, and risk the intell becoming to widespread.

ANOTHER @ 20:52

The US$ is soon to become a " regular paper currency"! To this end, holders of US dollars and US$ assets, must make a decision that will impact all assets, worldwide! To this end, assets will move to "physical gold " and cash dollars" first, driving up the dollar against all currencies. Then the dollar will be sold as it is deployed into real things.

INFLATION of hard assets, in a scramble to dump currencies.

Gold for the good guysGMJ

(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:35 - ID#252127)
Just another concept to think about

Concerning those gold loans that fund a gold producers plant and working capital and are provided by CB gold.

What if this gold never leaves the CB's vault and the CB merely provides currency to the lending banks who become trustees. Can't a CB do so?

In return the banks can perform their fractional magic on the amount of the loan so as to profit.

The banks as trustees see that the CB receives gold plus 2% interest in gold.

When the newly produced gold comes back the trustee banks they may suggest its sale to the CB, or further leading to support the the paper gold market, even use it along with gold sales to drive the price down.

The lended portion of this newly produced gold is still the property of the CB's and everybody is happy, that is except for the shareholders of the mining company because the gold their company is producing may be going at a low price into unknown hoards. Or possibly their company goes belly-up and the CB's trustee bank takes it over.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:40 - ID#342282)
Another re answer
Thank you for your pertinent comments. You have helped realign my thoughts toward a more productive result. Have a good trip, Charlie

(Sun Apr 19 1998 16:56 - ID#317193)
Confiscation-mines yours for $600 an oz. today
Please feel free to confiscate my gold today for $600 an oz. I'll even accept $6,000 an oz. if you are so disposed. Perhaps first things first. How about $320-360. Then we'll see if she rockets. Tom

(Sun Apr 19 1998 17:11 - ID#222231)
Tom, what if someone paid you today $600/oz and you wake up one fine AM six months from now to find it valued at $6,000/oz?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 17:11 - ID#238295)
Drifter: Welcome to KITCO! Hope you become a regular here. You sound like an economist -- no insult intended.

BTW, do you have an opinion on where POG is headed in the months ahead? Forecasts on this forum range from down to $280 by June, to as high as $550 by August.

Frankly gold mine nationalization or taxation are so far down my list of negatives and potential negatives as to be virtually off the radar screen. All gold and gold stock longs will be MUCH RICHER before this becomes a realistic concern.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 17:12 - ID#75206)
Bill2j - $6000 Gold
I have the same problem with this scenario as you. I just don't believe anyone can mandate a wholesale change in the world's financial system and its currencies. It just can't happen overnight.

I agree that if the oil producing nations in the ME ( for political reasons I don't see the UK, Mexico, or Venezuela participating ) announced they will only accept gold for oil, gold would suddenly be in much more demand then it is now and the price would be pushed up. Countries would buy gold with their currencies at whatever exchange rate the market set. If the ME countries then announced they considered gold to be the only true money, I doubt the rest of the world would immediately agree and start using gold as money. Gold would be purchased to buy oil just as dollars are now purchased to buy oil. Now, let's assume the oil producing countries in the ME did get together and announced that they will sell oil for 1 oz of gold per barrel. Obviously, there has just been a massive increase in the price of oil and many factors start to come into play. Among them:

1. Can such price increases be sustained? History has indicated that massive cheating on production levels would say no, it can't be sustained. Oil is a commodity; its used as it is purchased. Its a valuable commodity because it is literally the life blood of the industral world but it doens't have the intrinsic value that gold has as money. Oil isn't stockpiled for its intrinsic value as money as is gold. Its stockpiled so it can by used in case of supply disruptions.

2. The ME countries are not stupid and they have learned their economic lessons very well. They have learned that as the price of oil is increased, the world's oil companies crank up their exploration budgets and find more. As the price increases, proven reserves increase very quickly because it is now economical to extract it. That is precisely what happened in the mid-80s. $35-40/brl oil could not be sustainded because massive amounts of oil were being found and brought online. If you are Saudi Arabia and the only natural resource and source of wealth and foreign exchange your country has or ever will have is oil, and you've got a hundred year or more supply of it, you want as little competition as possible for that resource because you want the world to have to use it for hundreds of years. You don't want the price so high that every country in the world is drilling holes in the ground looking for oil and developing processes to extract it from oil shale rock in the Rocky Mountains or even developing synthetic oil, which of course we have today. The ME countries know they have to have a price that maximizes their wealth but not so high as to stimulate the mad scramble to find oil that the world experienced in the early 80s. A lot of oil was found and the price collapsed to under $10/brl in 1986. Its simple supply and demand and oil is subject to those laws the same as any other commodity.

3. Oil is not money; nor is gold. If either came to be perceived as money; i.e., to be used in worldwide commerce, you would see the supply of both increase exponentially, particlarly if the price of both in currency terms increased to $6000/oz of gold or per barrel of oil. It would precipitate a mad scramble for gold and oil as the world's economic system attempted to bring supply in line with demand. That is how free markets have worked since the beginning of time and that is how they will continue to work. It is only when governments intervene via force of law, with its implicit use of police or military force to enforce the law, that the free market is not allowed to work and economic dislocations, along with inefficient allocations of resources, can continue for long periods of time.

What ANOTHER envisions may come to pass some day but I see that scemario developing ( if it does ) over a long period of time. I just don't believe the oil producing counries have the economic clout to make it happen or that it is even in their best long-term interests to create another situation that existed from 1973 through the early 80s. The geo-political landscape has changed dramatically since then. The solidarity among ME countries is no longer there and you have countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and others who depend on the west for military protection and have no desire to become political pariahs by holding a knife at the world's throat in the form of oil at X number of ounces of gold while gold is several thousand dollars an ounce.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 17:14 - ID#286230)
Quixotic 1 (ANOTHER, has just pulled open the curtains on WB and Mr. Munk !!)
Quixotic 1: Why do refer to Peter Munk as the ex ABX captain?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 17:22 - ID#222231)
I mean't tomorrow AM in lieu of 6 months.
Sorry bout that.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 17:27 - ID#240120)
@TYoung Re: 16:56
If your stock of gold is a few million ounces you may well find an 'out of market' buyer for ALL OF IT at a price that is much higher than spot.

As ANOTHER said on Sat Nov 29 1997 15:53

"Something interesting happened just ago that will, in time impact the price of gold in US$. A proposal was offered to borrow in broken lots, 3.5 and 5.5 million ozs for resale. It was turned down. The owner offered to sell only, no lease. What turned heads was that someone else stepped in and took it all, at a premium! "

G o G o l d - Buy physical and hold.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 17:29 - ID#285121)
(USERX) 45% South African
A lot of interest lately in S.A. stocks. US Gold Shares is 45% shares.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 17:30 - ID#75206)
Thanks for the welcome. I've followed this forum for some time and find it intellectually stimulating and very infomrative on gold matters.

No, I'm not an economist. I've just done a lot of reading on economic matters over the years, especially regarding the Austrian school of econimic thought; i.e., Von Mises, Hayek, Friedman, etc.

I have no clue where gold will be tomorrow, next week or next month. I believe we've seen the bottom and we're headed higher, but how fast and how far remains to be seen. I buy gold and gold stocks based on broad risk/reward factors and analysis of the fundamental value of gold and gold stocks. I find the posts on this forum by the TA people and fundamental analysis very informative because if you've got the fundamentals and TA analysis on your side, you're chances of successful investing are very good. I hope we all make lots of money with gold but it won't be easy. It never is.

Bully Beef
(Sun Apr 19 1998 17:36 - ID#259282)
Give your head a shake!
Gold will... if we are lucky... be found attractive enough by investors to hit 340US by the end of June... if we are lucky. Any other consideration is verging on the ridiculous. Economic catastrophe? Don't wish for it! As an investment vehicle, PM'S and Resources have not done well in the last few years. Every dog has its' day. I hope the time is soon cause this dog is getting tired. We have hit the bottom and from down here everything looks up to me. Watch out what you wish for... you just may get it!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 17:45 - ID#341189)
Some oil/gold calculations = 4 to 6 thousand dollar gold
Given Another's assertion that oil/gold are to be money, then above ground gold must have some relative worth to below ground oil. There are 4,243,897,997 ounces of above-ground gold ( figure thanks to aurator ) . There are reported ( end of 1996 ) to be 1,036 billion barrels of oil reserves. This is a ratio of about 244 barrels of oil to an ounce of gold. If oil in dollars is priced at $20, then gold in dollars at the above gold/oil ratio would be $4880. As above-ground gold and below-ground reserves of oil changed, their ratio would change accordingly, thus affecting the dollar price of both oil and gold. But more importantly, Another's senario would give the world a real money in which all other goods would be priced.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 17:46 - ID#45173)
You make excellent arguments to support the idea that gold as currency is not in the interests of oil producers. An additional argument is that gold is not a practical instrument for transactions in a world where wealth is dependent on electronic commerce that is fast and accurate. The volume of commerce we have today is not possible if it becomes necessary to convert currencies to gold in the course of each transaction. However, currency backed by gold is plausible in the event that non-gold-backed currencies become inviable. In that event, the holding of gold by citizens creates perverse inequities between holders of paper assets and gold assets, creating the need for government confiscation.

Most Americans cannot imagine their government confiscating gold in return for fair market value. This suprises me because gold is a form of property and most citizens understand and accept the principle of eminent domain. If your house is one of few in the path of a new highway that will benefit millions of your fellow citizens, you must accept the government's demand that you sell your real estate propoerty for fair market value for the good of the majority. This principle applies for gold confiscation. As a holder of gold, you are in a minority. In the event that gold is needed to stablize the dollar, the government will require your compliance with its demand on your gold property for the good of the majority and the majority will support the goverment's demand that you comply. If you own gold and refuse to sell it back to the government at the prices set, you will have to find illegal buyers, and deal with all that this entails. If you cannot sell your gold or exchange it for goods, then it has no value.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 17:55 - ID#257136)
To Drifter, in relation to yours of 03:38.
I don't want to rain on your parade, but I suggest you try a simple device as a contrarian response to your theory that "the people of the U.S....won't stand for confiscation." or any other type of high-jinks.

Imagine that instead of a "different " kind of religious belief and/or ownership of supposed "automatic weapons" the Davidians had been accused of hoarding food and medicine or any other commodity which the elitists believe needs to be controlled. Or which they merely WANT.

Perhaps even GOLD or SILVER!

Now, please explain to the unenlightened "joe six pack" and his spouse and kids just why the folks deserve anything the gubmnt decides to do to them!
See how easily the populace has already accepted and no doubt will accept anything the elitist slave masters wish to put upon us!

Please set my addlepated self at ease by tellin' me "it ain't so" and it "cain't happen here!"
In the event I haven't read sufficiently far to see any other responses in the same of similar vein, I felt I must respond as I read the subject post, rather than wait 'til I have read everything posted up to the time seen on my post.
I just started reading about 15 minutes ago, so forgive me if I cover ground already covered by some others!
If you can see your way clear, please disabuse me of my belief! TIA!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 17:57 - ID#240120)
@Drifter Re: 17:12
A wholesale change in the world's financial system and its currencies has already started in the form of the Asian crisis............. and when the markets take fright the paper-currencies burn very fast, yes overnight. Indonesia is the fourth most populated country in the world and look how the Rupiah fell. It fell like a stone and very nearly disappeared into the abyss. Now the majority of large corporations in that country are technically insolvent, inflation is running at about 50% and there are riots in the streets. One minute all seemed well, the next minute financial chaos.

Which paper currency will be next ? I think the US dollar will be last.

G o G o l d - Buy physical and hold.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 18:02 - ID#233199)

No problem, ( well minimal problem, but I'd rateher take the chance than turn in my coins! Me and how many others?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 18:08 - ID#17796)
Jeremy-I wish . Pete-that's why I said TODAY!. My point is I can not predict the future, gold may go down in the short term. That's not the way I'm betting but I am prepared for this. I'm also prepared for confiscation. Don't have any idea what to do for stocks but pray. ANOTHER may be right but my investments are not based on his THOUGHTS. What can I say, I don't know him to trust him. Tom

Bully Beef
(Sun Apr 19 1998 18:10 - ID#259282)
In isolation you can imagine many things.
Thank God for Kitco! On the anniversary of Waco and the midwest tragedy don't ever let your thoughts go unopposed.Never belong to a site where everyone agrees with you. Out of adversity comes the truth. Gidday! Go Gold Tonight!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 18:20 - ID#365216)
preparedness strategy


All of these items have inherent value and will probably
appreciate in value even with a rosy economic scenario.
However, if Y2K, stock market crash, war, terrorist attacks,
hurricanes, tornados, snow storms, or any number of other
disasters strike, you will be thanking God that you had the
foresight to prepare for the worst ( while still hoping for the
best ) . Your family and friends may one day be counting on you
as one of the few who were proactive in their preparations.

I hope and pray that we will ultimately flourish as a country
but we must be prepared for hard times that may exist in the

May God bless all us Kitco-ites, our friends, and families.

That is all.

The General


(Sun Apr 19 1998 18:32 - ID#222231)
Sir, I salute you with all due respect!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 18:35 - ID#17796)
Generators are cheap when no one needs one. So is freeze dried food. Hope they bury me with this stuff, never used. Change is God's way of letting you know your still alive. The years of plenty have been many-cycles-always-cycles. Tom

Mike Sheller
(Sun Apr 19 1998 18:40 - ID#347447)
drifter, general
drifter: I beg to differ. Indeed, gold and oil ARE money. Paper is a NOTE against a real thing - like your labor, your smarts, your oil, your home, your gold, your soup ladle, your patio umbrella. Real things are real money. That is the point of all this. There is a real world, and there is an ersatz world. You have things backwards, as does the world. But cycles tend to align things properly. The fundamental things time goes by.

General: I salute you, sir.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Apr 19 1998 18:42 - ID#347447)
John Disney
Sounds great! I don't ski!!!!!!!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 18:52 - ID#411112)
John Disney, as a resident before you arrived explane the price of gold in SA


(Sun Apr 19 1998 18:57 - ID#266105)

Every sport abounds with the exception of snow skiing.


BeAUtiful pix of Capetown linked here the other day,
had no idea of the spectacular natural beauty.

BUT-- have had the morning's saltwater white lines
drying on the boots unlacing to strap on the afternoon's
downhill boots for schussing in the same day. HA!

In-law's in town, younger than their years, lotsa
crabs/clams, sun's well over the yardarm...

(Sun Apr 19 1998 19:00 - ID#285121)
Philadelphia Bank Index
( BKZ ) up 22% in the last 12 weeks.

Quixotic 1
(Sun Apr 19 1998 19:02 - ID#48200)
ANOTHER, let the light shine in !!
Someone who is in contempt of their position and "in pari delicto" with the Central Banks, is nothing more than a de-facto corporate officer. We have seen time and again, Mr. Munk take actions that are seemingly contrary to the best interest of ABX, and the gold industry. Just a few short months ago, we all criticized Mr. Munk for another flogging of the ABX share price pursuant to the sale of a large block ABX stock, in favor of his own real estate endeavors. When the run occurs, all will stand in the light of dawn, it shouldn't be long till Mr. Munk is "ex".
My read of the fuzzy area between the inks, is that GS, WB, Mr. Munk, et al, are inside the loop on this move. Also, the idea is becoming increasingly clear that silver and the PGMs may be the real winner down the road. I could stretch my imagination to see the future problems with gold ( confiscation, transfer tax, ect. ) , but I see great difficulties with the FED extending that reach to strategic industrial metals as well. What's next, conjecture about the confiscation of copper??

I would like to thank Mr. ANOTHER for a new "enlighten perceptual framework", for use in evaluating the actions of those that we entrust our money.

Gold for the good guysGMJ

(Sun Apr 19 1998 19:07 - ID#15843)
gold calls
Good evening all.
Would anyone care to forget about the notion of $3000 gold for now, and join me in speculating about a week or two ahead?
I see a short burst out for gold to between $340 - $360 inwithin the next two weeks. I've taken on a whole bunch of short dated, out-of-the money gold calls. Am I alone, or does anyone here share my sentiment?
Thank you.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 19:15 - ID#411112)
PS John Disney The standard of living I had in South Africa was far better than what you have a $100
pm for a maid my God man that is a 1000% increase from when I was there,deal with it,you are on the final Hooray brother.And it really pains me to say that,I have as much love if not more for the fair city of Cape Town

(Sun Apr 19 1998 19:24 - ID#340302)
@ALL...I'm back very afraid!
I've enjoyed perusing the interesting variety of posts over the weekend.
Same old, same old...

The usual confiscation baloney...confiscation, of course, is the main subject used to scare gold investors from buying non-numismatic, post 1933 well as keeping gold investors away from the North American mining stocks. And, of course, it's a vicious circle. If gold investors dump N.A. mining stocks, this action creates weakness in the XAU...then technical chartists step in and declare that, any weakness in the XAU must, of course, be followed by weakness in the Price of Gold. Around and round we go...the old self-fulfilling prophecy of "frightened- as-grannies" gold investors, dumping the XAU and gold, much to the gleeful delight of the gold shorts.

Let's examine confiscation: if the government were to step in and confiscate gold, what price level would the government be able to rationalize as a price in which "windfall" profits are generated?

Let's see: now if I were one of the unfortunates who bought gold back in the Early Eighties around $800 an ounce, then here in 1998, my total return on that metal would be negative 60% ( approx. ) at $308 an ounce. Given that I had given up a basic conservative return of 10% per annum for approximately 20 years...given that I would have missed out on the compounding effect of such a conservative return, then a price of gold that would make me whole on a conservative basis would be in the arena of
$3000 an ounce ( 20 years times 10% plus compounding ) . THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO WAY IN WHICH THE U.S. GOV'T COULD MAKE A REASONABLE CASE THAT ANY PRICE BELOW OR EQUAL TO THIS FIGURE CONSTITUTES OBSCENE, UNREASONABLE OR WINDFALL PROFITS. IN FACT, IT WOULD TAKE A GOLD PRICE IN THE AREA OF $6000 AN OUNCE FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO BEGIN TO HAVE REASONABLE CAUSE FOR ACCUSATIONS OF WINDFALL PROFITS AND/OR CONFISCATION. If the government were to take action at any price below $3000 an ounce, then every gold investor and gold mining exec in this country would have solid, irrefutable grounds for a major class action lawsuit against the government. I would be the first one to call up one of my favorite antitrust/public sector litigation buddies in New York and fire the first salvo. AND I KNOW ONE THING: I WOULD WIN!

Again, the whole windfall profits, confiscation theme that makes its rounds over and over again ad nauseam on this forum is a subject instigated constantly by gold shorts...another preposterous subject designed to cause capitulation on the part of gold investors. It is absolute and utter nonsense and hardly worth one scintilla of anybody's attention.

Remember one other thing: who would ever have imagined years and years ago that gold ( once valued at $35 an ounce ) would trade today for a figure representing a 1000% increase over that former price?? Yet, it happened...and the action significantly enriched many gold investors and mine owners. If we were to take today's price of gold and revalue it upward 1000%, then the price would be $3100 an ounce. The fact is, the price of gold is long overdue for a major, significant revaluation in order to reflect the exponential rise in paper assets based upon global goverments' original gold reserves. It will happen...sooner than later. You can count on it.



(Sun Apr 19 1998 19:32 - ID#217268)
Weekend Lurking
This weekend has been an absolute treasure for Kitco lurking. Perhaps the most ROBUST EXCHANGE of ideas in quite some time. Thanks to all.

For those trying to call the market top, I would suggest "following the money". I would define "following the money" into "sell side" and "buy side" pressures. One observation on the "buy side" is the expected slowing of mutual fund money inflows after the April 15th deadline to establish IRAs. Perhaps another 2 weeks for that inflow to pass though the mutual funds into stocks and bonds. That brings us to May 1. If tradition continues, "sell in May and go away ..." may see stagnant inflows on the "buy side".

A "sell side" observation might be consolidation at the DJIA = 10k level. People taking some money off-the-table at that psychological level.

I DO recognize there are BOTH positive and negative pressures on BOTH the buy and sell sides. Just food for thought.

If stock market exuberance is due to baby boomer investment behavior, one might look to what "popped" the yuppie baloon in the mid-1980's for a clue to what will precipitate a stock market correction and when. Cheers.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 19:45 - ID#251268)
Gold Calls,
I'm sure most of us here have near by calls close to the money but for the
extra cost I think it would be good to roll into aug, calls minimum,
now we might hit the lottery in the next few weeks but most of the
bullish news is slated for late May ( EU gold reserves ) in any case becuse
everyone has a false sence of security in the pog because of recent history of minipulation gold calls are cheap but the premium for time is even cheaper so IMO get a little more time for your money.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Apr 19 1998 19:49 - ID#347447)
farfel - so farinaceous!!!
The conception that the "gold confiscation scheme" is a theme promulgated by "gold shorts" is lacking. I am not a gold short, and I have been very concerned with this issue. Indeed, it is the gold "longs" who are most concerned and vociferous about this potential civilizational indignity. Don't you think? Wouldn't you say?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 19:50 - ID#365216)
to farfel regarding confiscation by gubment

Whether the government will actually confiscate our gold coins or not
is a smaller piece of a much larger issue: the slow eroding of our
personal liberties ( I'm talking U.S. now ) guaranteed in the US
COnstitution by a leftist ( read Clinton ) administration bent on
implementing its own agenda for the US and its citizens. This is most
readily apparent in the blatent "disarming of America" which the
Clinton Administration is bent on accomplishing. First, military style
rifles, sporters, handguns, ( next your real sporting guns ) all in
the name of lowering crime ( BS criminals hardly ever obtain their
guns legally anyway ) . When America is disarmed, a tyrannical government
will be free to impose their will on its citizenry.


(Sun Apr 19 1998 19:51 - ID#411112)
Bully Beef/ that great American... Kramer would say"GIDDYUP"


(Sun Apr 19 1998 19:51 - ID#340302)
@ALL...ANOTHER and the Middle East Theory of Gold Appreciation...
First, I must say that Mr. Another is a particularly interesting gentleman. His theories related to oil/gold are compelling and certainly worthy of consideration. Whether or not you like what he says, he has a marvelous way of putting things and a mature insight into the ways of the world that suggest he either is or has been a notable player at the establishment level. As someone who has been there, I am speaking from experience.

Personally, however, I believe his focus may be a little on the narrow side. The focus on the Middle East and its effects on the American Dollar diminishes the role played by other significant global regions, notably Europe and Asia. It is true that if the oil supply were to shut down, then most of the world would be in a terrible fix. On the other hand, if offshore manufacturing in Asia were to shut down, there would be a tremendous shortage of autos, TV's, computers, etc. throughout the world. If offshore manufacturing in Europe were to shut down, every conceivable luxury item in America would disappear, from perfumes to fashion clothing to furniture, etc., etc. These may not be regarded as necessities to the American middle class...but they are certainly necessities to America's Upper Class.

We live in a very interconnected my mind, there is no single region that can extort the other without severe adverse consequences. You can argue all variety of scenarios as to which global region suffers the most if a vital commodity or product is withheld from world supply...
ultimately, it ends up as nothing more than a chicken-and-egg debate.

In the interdependent reality of our world, therein lies the fundamental anomaly of American economic hegemony. A dollar-based economic system dominated by American interests ( America consuming over 60% of the world's resources, yet constituting a mere fraction of the world population ) is aberrational and non-sustainable given the current realities of the world. America is simply far too reliant on other regions of the world for all variety of necessities ( therein lies the chronic import/export imbalance ) . Ergo, it is now imperative that a new global economic system arises that distributes equity throughout the world to a much greater degree than the extant system.

And so, we have the impending currency wars...American economic hegemony must yield in this particular instance or else, I am afraid we will move from currency wars to actual war.

It seems almost a virtual certainty that the net effect of the impending currency wars will be a significant revaluation of gold's value in American dollar terms.



(Sun Apr 19 1998 19:53 - ID#270447)
I guess I have more faith in the intelligence of the American people. I don't consider them a bunch of dim-witted sheep who believe whatever the government tells them. In fact, cynicism and scepticism regarding what government can and cannot do is extrememly high. Like I said in an earlier post; presidents and kings won't get it done. The scandal plagued president sitting in the White House today certainly isn't going to convince anyone it is in the best interests of the country to confiscate or nationalize anything. He already tried that with health care and you saw the results. The Dems got their butts kicked in the 94 elections thanks to the attempts by BC to nationalize health care. Imagine the political ramifications of outright nationalization of an industry or confiscation of wealth. Forget it. It won't happen under this president.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 19:55 - ID#401349)
@ gold calls
Your 19:07. I think you have it right. I have been accumulating for the past couple of months. I occasionally scan this site. Good stuff. A few folks stay too close to the subject matter, and, therefore, lose a bit of perspective. Others are like kids on Sunday afternoon -- when they tire of their games they tease the cat or each other. But I now have a huge bet on gold. It looks good and feels good. We will see 330 before we see 295. Oh by the way, I have too Gen-X kids who only buy gold and land. Makes a man proud!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 19:55 - ID#284255)
Civil defence alert over 2000 bug
The spectre of a millennium bug meltdown has prompted civil defence authorities to prepare for a national emergency, while the business world ponders how to "work around" a breakdown in essential services.

"People have to realise this [the year 2000 problem] can actually stop things from happening,"
The Millenium Bug
Assessing the risk: sector by sector
Gold rallies to highest level since late 1996
$A gold rallied to its highest level since November 1996 last week due to the handy combination of a lower Australian dollar and a higher US dollar gold price. Even so, Australian gold producers were not rushing out to forward-sell gold.

But this is not surprising. The gold market has a more positive tone now than for at least two years. Why sell, think a number of producers, if the market can rally more? And anyway, Australian producers are well sold, with the next three years' gold production already hedged.

Gold producers are sidelining, awaiting another rally before adding to their forward gold sales position.

"There are reports that there are several producers looking at large forward sales at $A475/oz and $A480/oz," said Kamal Naqvi, precious metals analyst with the Macquarie Bank group.

One Australian producer, Camelot Resources NL announced on Friday that it had increased its forward gold sales position due to the rise in Australian dollar gold prices. This implies strong resistance for the gold price about $US315/oz, at present exchange rates, Mr Naqvi said.

Nevertheless, gold is starting to consolidate in a higher trading range between $US300/oz and $US315/oz, a distinctly impressive performance compared with the past two years.

It has been on a steady slide from $US415/oz in early 1996, to its lowest level in 18 years of $US278/oz at the start of this year. The main reasons for this slide have been a clear lack of investment demand for bullion as well as steady central bank selling of their massive gold reserves. And central banks still hold about 30,000 tonnes of gold -- a third of the gold ever mined.

Now, with the European Central Bank -- the new bank formed to back the euro -- about to announce the composition of its foreign exchange reserves next month, the gold market is not anticipating any gold sales by European central banks in the near term.

"Some of the rhetoric coming from European central banks is giving the market more confidence," said Mr Mark Freemantle, bullion dealer with Rothschild Australia.

This has allowed the market to stabilise. But gold is finding it tough breaking up through $US315/oz resistance at the moment.

And today's world of volatile currency movements has a lot to do with this. Certainly, the extraordinary strength of the US dollar is one factor holding back the gold price.

The US dollar has hit near seven-year highs in the past two weeks against the yen, and Asian currencies have been in freefall for almost a year. This makes gold in these currencies more expensive and will knock demand.

South-East Asia accounts for about 20 per cent of world gold demand and the collapse in the South-East Asian currencies has not meant just a slowing in demand, but worse, selling of private gold holdings due to the higher domestic gold price. South Korea has already exported more than 200 tonnes.

But the most important currency affecting demand for gold is the Indian rupee. Last year, India accounted for about 20 per cent of global gold consumption. A weaker rupee could slice into gold demand.

"Broadly speaking, a 10 per cent decrease in the local ( rupee ) price leads to a 10 per cent fall in Indian gold demand," said Mr Naqvi.

Earlier this year, the rupee hit all-time lows against the US dollar. It has since stabilised but at a considerably lower level and it remains under threat from the competitive devaluations throughout the rest of Asia.

At the same time, the rand recently fell to historic lows against the US dollar. This could affect gold supply with higher rand gold prices stimulating South African producers to accelerate forward-selling programs.

However, South African gold producers, like Australian producers, are not rushing to sell because the rand is likely to depreciate further as the year progresses, according to Mr Naqvi.

For gold, this is a tranquil time. But such calms often precede storms. And the next storm may come next month when the European Central Bank announces just how much gold it will hold. The market will then reconcentrate its efforts on what to do with the massive remaining gold stocks held by central banks in Europe.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 19:59 - ID#230244)
MR DISNEY 'white farmers'attacks on blacks mounting,group says'.
JOHANNESBURG-The killing of a black infant allegedly shot by a white farmer last weekend was the latest in a spate of attcks on innocent blacks, South Africa,s human rights watchdog said yesterday.
The independent Human Rights Commissio said a t least four attacks on blacks by white farmers were recorded in the past two months. Two children were killed and three others went missing. This statistic is indicative of an increasing trend which the HRC has been monitoring,"it said in a sttement.
In a separate incident, a black priest was shot and killed when he wandered onto a farmers property, the commission said.
On tuesday, South African President Nelson Mandela visited the scene of the latest killing,where a six month-old infant was allegedly shot dead last weekend by a farmer east of Johannesburg.The attacks have been perceived by some as a backlash by white farmers who beleive they are being targeted by blacks whom they accuse of trying to force them oo the lad.

Between 1994 and 1997, a total of 464 white frmers were kiled. Statistics show that since 1992 until last year, there were 2,730 attacks on farms, mostly owned by whites.=REUTERS.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:05 - ID#230244)
coorections second last paragraph.
"force them of their land.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:06 - ID#270447)
Mike Sheller
You are confusing wealth with money. The things you have listed in your post are real wealth but they are not money. Money is a medium of exchange. Goods and services are real wealth and it is these things that money, as a medium of exchange, can buy. Gold is, and always has been, real wealth. Once it was also money as well as real wealth. With the advent of fiat currencies; i.e., pieces of paper with ink on them, that were fully backed by gold, money was still real wealth. Not anymore. When money was severed from its gold and silver backing it ceased to be real wealth.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:06 - ID#347447)
Your quote: "America consuming over 60% of the world's resources, yet constituting a mere fraction of the world population ) is aberrational and non-sustainable given the current realities of the world"

And yet this is the reality. There are FIAT monopolies, such as the government fiat of "money" creation ( whereby no one else may create "money" except government ) . And there are EARNED monopolies such as MICROSOFT which are where they are because of what they exchanged as a value with free choosing consumers. America is where it is today because it has earned and created that situation.
De Facto. Perhaps it is time for the rest of the world to TRULY understand what that is all about.
And yes...nothing is perfect. America may have to soon relearn that SAME lesson. But reality is what it is for a reason. And the reality is that America IS the 600 pound gorilla, for now.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:06 - ID#284255)
IMF - Rubin - Y2k stories
IMF stops short of major reform

Summit of Americas sets pace on free trade path

Forget the Asian bust, Wall Street boom is the real worry

Biggest fish swamps rest - R. Rubin

Finance leaders fail to find blueprint

Embedded systems pose Y2K threat

Why Games won't begin - Sydney Olympic 2000 games

First Y2K, now the Euro effect

Mike Sheller
(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:11 - ID#347447)
what a blessed parent you are. I keep on my kids in China to buy gold ( of all people they should know better ) and they are too busy living the kid's life! ( Hey, that's how I lived when I was their age ...but not in China! ) .

(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:13 - ID#409349)
Mike Sheller-Mars/Saturn Aries

If one uses a Tropical zodiac, you are correct about Mars/Aries. However if one use a Sidereal zodiac, the period that both planets are in Aries runs from 4/24 to 5/14. As you know, some astrologers feel Sidereal is more accurate. So let's wait until the ides of May before discarding any Nostradamus predictions.

Aragorn III
(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:14 - ID#212323)
It is the law of Natural Selection...
Too many people choose to reject the THOUGHTS! of ANOTHER because they ( correctly ) conclude that no Government or organization has the power to force these "hypothetical THOUGHTS!" into reality.

I encourage you to think on this...Governments are staffed by the population through a process that requires a vote being cast in periodic elections. There is not much avenue here for the 'common man' to effect change in governmental policies. As a result, people come to accept their government as an independant entity with unalterable and unlimited power. The population thinks, therefore, that if the government doesn't want to do these things ( hypothetical THOUGHTS! ) then they cannot possible happen. BUT THEY CAN...

It is not so obvious if you are not looking for it, but there is another type of election that requires votes to be cast EVERY day! The election is called commerce, and each transaction is a vote of confidence for the currency used. Low prices reflect high confidence while rising prices reflects falling confidence. You and I vote every day in this election. The government does not participate in setting the price for a can of soup, a new bicycle, an hourly wage for yard work, tailoring, consulting, etc. The people of a country, independant of their government, have the means to bring these THOUGHTS! to reality. As naturally as selecting soup or salad, the world of currencies will change.

As I anticipate you objections, I offer this oversimplified example that can be expanded to any scale. Your house is in need of repair of such a degree that a typical repairman would charge several thousand dollars. You hire me to perform the needed service. As an astute mind in the true measure of value, I submit my bill to reflect my thoughts. Knowing full well that I will be forced to accept payment if it is tendered in US greenbacks, I instead give my customer a choice. My fee for services rendered shall by assessed as 10 ounces of gold, or US$3500 cash. My price structure reflects less confidence in the future of paper money. The customer would likely smile at the opportunity to save a few dollars and would convert $3080 into gold through a bullion dealer to effect payment. KNOW THIS...strong money will always underbid weak money. This process, repeated daily at all scales of commerce from fisherman to oil producer, will naturally devalue paper currencies beyond the power of any Government or organization to control. Gold is indeed a strong currency, and the law of Natural Selection is beyond the executive power of veto.

I rephrase in simple is not about forcing the price of gold to rise in terms of paper, it is about the method of payment ( and quantity ) required to execute a transaction. If no-one will accept any modest amount of paper money for a product or service, why would a person holding gold be inclined to exchange it for any modest amount of paper. Very small gold will purchace directly, with no fiat paper middleman.

Think once about fear, manias, and herd mentality. Do you think it improbrable for public confidence to abandon government paper? Do you think this would take years, or could it happen relatively speaking overnight? I say years in the making with the final act 'overnight'. I remind you all that this started in 1971 with the final abandonment of the gold standard. Now, twenty-seven years later, the curtain is raised for the final act. As Allen ( USA ) stated in an elloquent parable on week ago, it is time to start quietly moving toward the exits.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:15 - ID#347447)
You are "correct" but ultimately wrong. Paper notes were always just that - notes for a tangible object that was real and intrinsically of value. Gold. The charade of the present day can only last so long. We may die and never see the backlash, but it is a farce and a fantasy, and will come to no good end. Money, TRUE money, is a real thing. Do not be mislead. But I understand what you are saying.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:16 - ID#238422)
Mike Sheleer @ Tolerant1
Thank you very much, my brothers. I feel
some respect in your words, which makes me feel good.
I will certainly try to get a touch with you if
I'm in New York area. We'll do pickles and vodka and
after that we will certainly solve all gold-related
problems right on the spot. Will be honored to join
you, gentlemen, in art of drinking and conversation.

I will be absent for a week from tomorrow, time to
do some business overseas.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:20 - ID#347447)
I am a tropical geocentricist at heart, but as to your proposition, I respond with a hearty OK! I await those tongues of fire!

Mike Sheller
(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:22 - ID#347447)
may your overseas business be fruitfull and bring prosperity to all involved!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:23 - ID#287114)
I phoned Canada today and was told there is still a big hangover from the
Bre-x scandal. I was told it is affecting the gold mine stocks in a big way and in particular the price of gold. They said alot of fund managers are still smoking long after the fire has gone out. I would like to hear what you regulars on Kitco think about this.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:25 - ID#31868)
STUDIO_R - 11:09
And wealth was defined in the kind words spoken, forever more, true value was never mis-understood not by him at least sentiment, never to be found in a thing,...only of the heart from which sprang true that which has the ultimate meaning,, his horse fed in the meadow, Tom Horn was done wrong and I am the ghost to prove it

The infinity of my respect guards your house...

Tintin and Babar sleep well knowing that I am vigilante

(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:25 - ID#340302)
ANOTHER and why I believe his focus is misdirected...
Pursuant to my previous post, I also believe Mr. Another places too much emphasis on the Middle East and its effects on gold price at a time when there is no undue impetus to change the status quo emanating from that region.

Which global region has the greatest impetus to change the economic status quo right this moment??

Answer: Asia, of course. Asia...filled with some of the world's hardest working, most driven citizens. Asia...frustrated and infuriated by having the "carpet of prosperity" tugged out from beneath it.

I believe that, in terms of the global economic status quo, there will be an Asian-American confrontation long before any such equivalent Middle East/American confrontation.

Again, I expect to see it sooner than later.

What form might such an encounter take?

My own hunch is that the Asians soon will "make a strong point" to America. The Malaysians, Indonesians, and Japanese have laid much of the blame for the region's current ecnomic crisis at the door of currency speculators ( most notably G.SOROS ) . I would not be surprised to see a consortium of Asian speculators mount a retaliatory attack on American treasuries and effectively the U.S. dollar. Moreover, I would expect a hefty slice of repatriated American dollars will be parked in a "neutral" medium of exchange and I would expect that the neutral repository will be in the precious metals arena.

I believe that is why wealthy individuals like Buffett and wealthy families like the Bronfmans are taking strong positions in PM's. Certainly, they must have some sense of the impending currency confrontation and they wish to both protect themselves and benefit from it.

Ultimately, I believe the Asians ( like the Europeans ) desire economic equity...not hegemony. A full-fledged, long-lasting global currency war is ultimately a no-win situation for all concerned. Yet, I feel certain we will soon see the first tangible evidence of the dispute. As part of the evolution into the new Millennium, America will be compelled to change the nature of the global economic status quo and provide more equity to the major global economic regions. My own guess is that, by the time the dust settles, we will be left with as many as five major global currencies, each with equal reserve status.

The countdown to the fireworks begins....



(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:27 - ID#210114)
Thanx for your reply re: 1964 Kennedy Half-Dollars

(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:27 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother John, I read your report on
Truth Commission, and I believe I posted
a "thank you" message earlier. It was informative
and very useful for me.

Thank you again, hope to be in touch with you again
in a week. There is a 80% probability that POG will
close 7-9 dollars up next week, means 315-317. I'm
not certain this time, not enough pickles for a AU
trend analysis, but vodka tasted this time like it
could happen...

(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:29 - ID#210114)
You are bearish on POG predicting $US280. What are your reasons?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:32 - ID#31868)
Lucid as usual. A privilege to read your thoughts.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:33 - ID#253153)
Gold Confiscation--Farfel
You are right on the money. I don't see the US government confiscating
either gold or nationalizing the mines. As deflation acclerates the gold
mines will provide employment to thousands of people and generate income for many states and countries. In my opinion, by the stroke of a pen the US government will revalue the US dollar price of gold to a very high value to create liquidity and make our dollar convertible into gold. It may take a few years but it's coming. Some people are trying to get all the gold shares they can and will generate all kind of stories to get the gold bugs to sell their shares. The float on the gold shares is very small.
The mining shares will be flying soon.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:37 - ID#210114)
ANOTHER still taken seriously on this forum?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:39 - ID#231337)
Another & farfels posts of Sun Apr 19 1998
I am impressed with the posting from both of you. Thanks. Another has laid out a senario that is frightening, while farfel has added a touch of realism to that vision. However, the compelling message from both of you is that a sea change is near.. quickly or over a longer time frame. Lets hope for the latter. What will trigger it is unknown, at least to some.

Farfel, I agree with your comment re a new balance needing to be struck between the consuming world, namely the U.S. and the producing world. An Indonesian worker making sandals for Bata, can no longer afford to purchase a pair of those sandals for a days wages. This convenient game played since the 2nd WW, that of a US consumer turning over US $ for inexpensive foreign goods or labor, is coming to an end.

Oil is the potential spark, the massive discrepancy between the US consumer and the worlds working producer is another, and the new currency alignment, the Euro or a new Asian currency are all adding up to a massive assult on the current 'arrangements' as we know them.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:40 - ID#288369) and chocolate? why not? away olives!
I pray for your safe return.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:50 - ID#384350)
Spock, etiquette
Spock, if you want to critique Another's thoughts so do it, but your derision of the majority of the board who appreciate his wisdom is uncalled for.

Maybe you missed Bart's post on kitco etiquette, or maybe you just don't care.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:51 - ID#284255)
Y2K should send gold through the roof
Millennium bug threatens exchanges
In Singapore 'nearly one-half' of financial institutions have not begun to deal with the millennium bug, the report said.

Apocalypse - Yardeni vs Starr

The Ripple Effect

OMB Awareness Campaign?


Phone blitzed? Car on fritz? Must be 2000
``It will be somewhere between Armageddon and a yawn,''
Recent research, for example, indicates that almost one-third of U.S. companies haven't started tackling the problem,
``If they've waited too long or haven't even begun, I think the window of opportunity has closed or is closing,''

Year 2000: What? Me worry? - great article for the programers$defaultview/C8CC6ED9B3354A02852565B400517D46

For companies, 2000 is a computer odyssey

(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:52 - ID#340302)
Another source of amusement for me today is the article on gold in "the New York Times." Again, it is agit-prop generated by gold shorts and mainstream Wall Street New Paradigmists.

The central thesis: gold is moving up today in expectation of a EURO to be supported by 20% gold reserves. By extrapolation, if the EURO falls short of 20% gold support, then gold must fall from its current level.
So, in essence, that is the main purpose of this news begin the perception spin on the EURO as it relates to gold. Expect many more new articles of this ilk over the next month or so.

Yet, here is the realistic, truthful spin: gold's fall over the last two years occurred owing to incessant gold short agit-prop to the effect that ALL the central banks were in the process of dumping ALL their gold since it had evolved into a mere commodity ( with a mythical value premium ) . Ergo, gold's value today is based on the absorption of this worst case scenario prognosis.

Therefore, if the EURO is backed by a mere 5% gold reserves, this represents reserves in excess of the 0 gold reserves that gold shorts have forecast over the past two years. After all, they have stated repeatedly that gold would no longer form financial reserves for the central banks of the future. So, 5% is bullish for gold from today's price level...that is, it validates gold as financial reserve.

By extrapolation, if the EURO holds 10% gold reserves, then this is very bullish for gold, since it represents a gold reserve holding 100% higher than the previous example.

Finally, any gold reserve level above 10% is extremely bullish for gold as it represents substantive gold reserve holdings and invalidates the arguments of gold shorts and gold pessimists over the past two years.

There is your appropriate perception spin...use it! Use it frequently and counteract the negative spin of the gold shorts.



(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:54 - ID#432157)
Cdn Resource and Energy Conferance
Just returned from conferance and all the pundits DINES-John Keiser -etc etc all agreed that GOLD is going higher to about 350-360 U.S.


(Sun Apr 19 1998 20:54 - ID#238295)
June gold down 90 cents. A bad start for the new week. As usual the stocks lead bullion.and the stocks were weak Friday.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:00 - ID#317193)
Spock- how unkind
Use of such profanity and antagonistic language is certainly a breach of all THOUGHTS of decency. You must be an infadel. Do you not trust one you know not? Live long and prosper. Tom

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:01 - ID#238295)
Spock: I was poking a little fun at RJ. He has projected $280 by June. I remain cautious near term, but am looking for at least $320 by the end of June.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:03 - ID#286199)
S.A. gold news

JSE Gold graph ( must have java capable browser )

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:04 - ID#34761)
Numismatic Gold vs Buillion Coins
I'm being told by people ( who have a vested interest in selling me numismatic gold coins ) , that when gold makes a significant upside move, numismatic coins will out-perform buillion coins ( specifically Maple Leafs of Eagles ) .
That isn't what I remember in 1980, when silver and gold spiked up.
Does anyone have any guidance - which of the two is likely to be the best mover if gold say goes to $500 an ounce ?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:05 - ID#238422)
Thank you.
Prayer is good for soul.
Chocolate is good for brain.
Vodka is good for heart.

Why do we need anything else?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:06 - ID#35770)
Get Short Gold
The COT Commercials being short has never been wrong for a big gold decline since the Rubin mkt in gold began in 1996. The articles this weekend setting ceilings of 315 Veneroso and 325 Euro at 30% are well orchestrated and set the stage for a sharp drop in PM prices. The Bear Is back. When Gold goes there will be no warning as the boys want to keep it down and thru the paper mkts they have control. GSC and others make money for once and get short. How many repeats of the same sitcom do you need to see before you can guess the ending ie much lower PM prices. We are near another High so here is the chance to get short and make money in this ( as you know ) manipulated mkt!! Get Smart and Get Short!! WAke up and see reality!!

John B__A
(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:06 - ID#77133)
Latest Issue of The Economist Knocks the U.S. "Bubble" Economy
I've abstracted this very bearish article by this internationally respected publication ( full text can be obtained at ) :

FINANCE AND ECONOMICS - America bubbles over
The American economy is showing dangerous signs of excess. A wave of financial mergers is only the latest evidence. . .

Soaring share prices, merger mania and rising prices for property and works of art all suggest that America is developing a bubble economy.
Just as champagne tastes wonderful until the bubbles go to your head, so
financial bubbles tend to create nasty economic hangovers. These can take
two forms. Either they suddenly burst, with painful financial and economic consequences. Or rising asset prices feed through into the wider economy, pushing up the prices of goods and services until, eventually, they are burst by the deliberate efforts of the central bank. With American consumer prices rising by only 1.4% in the year to March, that may seem a remote problem.

But rapidly rising asset prices boost household wealth, encouraging a spending spree. As domestic demand becomes overheated, general price inflation rises. Either way, the bubble could put Americas expansion at risk. Evidence of speculative excesses is widespread. There are four main symptoms: overvalued share prices, merger mania, rising property prices and a rapid growth in money supply.

Americas stockmarket has risen by more than 30% over the past year. Share prices have continued to climb, exploding to new records again this week despite increasing signs that profits are likely to be squeezed over the next 12 months. The Standard & Poors 500-stock index has seen a cumulative real return of 825% since 1982, the start of this bull market, even larger than the 730% real gain during the bubble of the 1920s.

Some of the rise in share prices reflects improved performance. Inflation has fallen, the governments budget deficit is moving into surplus and new technologies have reshaped huge parts of the economy. Corporate earnings have set record after record. But even all this does not justify current prices.

The recent merger craze, including a wave of huge bank mergers, is a strong characteristic of a bubble economy. . .

The four previous big merger waves this centuryin the early 1900s, the 1920s, the 1960s and the 1980sall coincided with three things: strong economic growth, rapid credit expansion, and a stockmarket boom. The first three ended in the crashes of 1904, 1929 and 1969; the 1980s boom petered out as the economy slipped into recession in 1990.

Merger waves. . . tend to be encouraged by soaring stockmarkets, according to F.M. Scherer of Harvard University, because the inflated value of shares relative to earnings provides a cheap way to finance acquisitions. . . . That is when booms can turn to bust. Many of the mergers late in the cycle will be rushed and ill-conceived; their trumpeted benefits will often fail to live up to expectations. That, in turn, may dent investors rosy outlook and contribute to a crash. Mr Scherer detects such end-of-cycle hubris in the merger announced on April 6th between Citicorp, Americas second-biggest banking company, and Travelers, an equally big financial-services group: The law of gravity has not been repealed. Thats what they thought in the 1920s. They were sadly disabused of that notion.

The third symptom of a bubble economy is a frothy property market. In 1997 commercial rents rose by around 20% or more in San Francisco, Boston and Dallas. In New York, bidders recently offered the equivalent of $180 per buildable square foot, twice the price paid for a comparable site six months ago, for a pair of development sites near Times Square. House prices are rising rapidly in many cities, fuelled by lower mortgage rates.

For the last five years we have been in a new industrial era in this country. We are making progress industrially and economically not even by leaps and bounds, but on a perfectly heroic scale. So wrote Forbes magazine in June 1929, four months before Americas stockmarket crashed.

Last, but by no means least, the most damning evidence of a bubble is Americas rampant monetary growth. The broad measure of the money supply, M3, rose by almost 10% in the year to March, its fastest since 1985. . . Just as too much money chasing too few goods causes goods-price inflation in the real economy, too much money chasing too few assets causes asset-price inflation.

This is why central banks are wrong to focus solely on consumer-price inflation when setting policy. They also need to keep a keen eye on asset prices.

The fizziness of Americas bubble economy suggests, therefore, that the Federal Reserve needs to tighten the monetary screws. That, however, may be harder than it seems. The Feds ability to raise interest rates to dampen speculative excesses is constrained. It has a legal mandate only to curb consumer-price inflation, which has been falling, not rising. And pricking a financial bubble is a risky business, hard to do with delicacy. This is why it would have been better if the Fed had raised interest rates sooner to prevent a bubble in the first place. But
one thing is sure: the longer Americas party is allowed to continue, the worse the eventual hangover will be.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:09 - ID#288369)
@oris. simply put.......
I believe you.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:10 - ID#286199)
Harmony (HGMCY)
announces their quarterly earnings Monday.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:11 - ID#340302)
@OLD GOLD...why is a ninety cent drop in the gold price... the start of a trading session worth even so much as a mention?
Why do you feel this fact augurs negatively for gold? Why does it pose any relevance to gold's trading pattern this week? In the larger scheme of things, who cares?

Your negative observation is yet another classic example of the self-fulfilling prophecy effect of disillusioned, defeated goldbugs.

Once again, I will restate what I said in one of my posts some time ago: I am categorically convinced that goldbugs on this forum will not be the major beneficiaries of a significant upspike in the gold price.


Because the goldbugs today are a pre-determined and resigned lot. They are so accustomed to dismal price trading ranges...negligible and non-sustainable price increases...incessant, negative price forecasts from technical chartists who hold them in much so that when the first notable upspike occurs in gold ( owing to mainstream investors beginning their entry into PM'S ) , the goldbugs will be the first to jump off the train. They will be the last to recognize the actual trend shift when it occurs.

On the other hand, new investors to gold and silver will not harbor such fears. They will bring the same winning attitudes toward gold and silver that they they held with their Microsofts, Cokes, Disney's, etc. They will buy and hold and they will be the real beneficiaries of the 100% plus gains in the metal's price.



(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:13 - ID#250236)
Lihir Gold
My broker tells me this morning that there is a takeover in the wind for Lihir Gold from possibly BMG.Has anyone else heard of this?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:14 - ID#317193)

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:16 - ID#22157)
South Africa
South Africa is no doubt a beautiful country, visited it twice and would love to live there, if it was not for the massive problems. My wife is from there, she and her entire family fled the country in the early nineties due to the worsening humanitarian conditions, brought on by the hypocritical sanctions led the dogooder's countries all over the world. This of cource affected the black population first. If you want to live armed with guns, batons and knobkerries behind barbed wired walls laced with broken glass, well, go for it. It is sad but South Africa just represents one of the worst examples of colonial treatment of natives all over the world by the so called white master race. As we all can see, the past cannot be undone as most african countries which have been given back to their people sadly show. The goldprice of course would have risen dramatically in Rand terms due to the latter's depreciation over the last 10 to 15 years. As I humbly have to admit, I wouldn't have a clue how the problems could be fixed, but then again, the whole world is in quite a mess! Anyway, thinking of accumulating the only 2 hard currencies, gold and maybe swiss franks.

John B__A
(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:17 - ID#77133)
It is true that in 1980, mint-state brilliant uncirculated MS-65+ Morgan dollars outperformed commodity gold or silver coins such as the Maple-Leaf or common Franklin halves. However, I think this was as much a function of very high inflation expectations at that time, as opposed to simply the rising price of silver or gold bullion.

All quality collectibles during that period experienced dramatic price rises. For example, rare numismatic ancient coins, e.g., Roman and Greek hit price levels in 1980 ( and then crashed ) that have yet to be matched since.

Its probable that our current financial asset bubble ( see my previous post ) , will leak again into high quality collectibles of all types.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:21 - ID#270227)
farfel.....I think you got it right :-)
Try this one on for size :- )


John B__A
(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:26 - ID#77133)
(Old Gold, Farfel)
IMO, Old Gold is one of the most venerated and respected gold-bugs on this site. He may not always be correct, but his head is screwed on straight and his depth of experience shows.

However I must admit Mr. Farfel that your last post did hit a resonant chord within me. For the most part I agree that we gold-bugs are losers and will probably bail out of gold at just the wrong time.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:28 - ID#426220)

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:31 - ID#286199)
Brief Bio on AngloGold Chief Exec

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:31 - ID#288369)
@Bart......and all.
Would it be wise to display on the "discussion page" a simply-worded statement which indicates that all postings, regardless of the author or copyright owner, are, in fact, copyrighted and are expressly prohibited from any duplication or publishing without the copyright owners' written permission. I have a notion that the text being developed here, as time goes by, has and will have worth and that this will be a method by which you may recoup your investment in the PUBLISHING of our work.

I know I normally have to assign 50% of the royalties on songs to my song publishers and, in the case of these postings, you are their publisher. This is the standard deal in the publishing game. I know I have, for example, posted lyrics of my and others' songs whereby the publishing rights have been assigned prior to their posting on Kitco. In this case, the poster must be careful to select the proper category of copyright claimant.

I know I would be agreeable to assigning my publishing rights to you for my posts which are published here at Kitco, retaining , of course, my author's royalty rights and expressly excluding any material whereby the publishing rights have previously been assigned to another party.

Something for you and all to contemplate. I'd like to see you "come out" profitably on your publishing investment. studio.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:32 - ID#238422)
Brother Tom, we have a good specialist in firearms use
on our team, OLD SOLDIER. I always respect his opinion,
may be he would like to add something...

Unrest, combined with violence, is some kind of simplified
attack by a group of "non-organized infantry". So, I believe
that your friend must use the same means of defence as the
military would use - military style self-loading firearm.
You friend already got something, including Marlin Camp
Carbine in 9mm Luger. It's not a bad piece, but I never
played with one and do not know its reliablility. Hunting
rifles are very powerful but too slow to fight a group of
attackers. My first choice to deal with group attack would
be my belowed AK-47 or AK-74 ( 5.45mm AK ) . 30 rounds of pretty
potent 30 cal.cartridges, fired at the distance of 25-50 yards,
and appearance of AK-47, which everybody know is "a very
dangerous weapon - killing gun" will do the trick of scaring
away most of the bad guys. Sometimes you even do not need to
shoot, but to show that you got it...I would give preference
to this particular gun because of its extreme reliability -
I fired AK's many times and I swear I never had a single
jam, misfire or else. You can also use it as a "combat hammer",
if out of ammo. It's all steel consruction is very strong, and
once again, its appearance may just scare attackers away.

I would also pack a good .357 revolver as a back-up, like
Ruger GP-100. I would also drink a little bit of vodka
right before the use of these things to fight a big crowd of
bad guys, to establish right mindset ( serious joke ) . I would
use good cover and aim each shot very carefully even if I
had a whole bunch of ammo. But I would not like to find myself
in a situation when I need to do it...I would rather speculate
on gold mining shares.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:36 - ID#432298)
Gold Market Trend
Farfel, What is your opinion as to the trend in Gold both in the short and long term? What about the companies that mine them, any opinion on that? It is only my gut feeling only that gold is going to remain in its downward trend that it has only momentarily broke out of.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:36 - ID#340302)
@ROR...this is one of my favorite posts of the day...
...and I got a good laugh from it. Thanks.

Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 21:06
ROR ( Get Short Gold ) ID#35770:
Copyright  1998 ROR/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The COT Commercials being short has never been wrong for a big gold decline since the Rubin mkt in gold began in 1996. The articles this weekend setting ceilings of 315 Veneroso and 325 Euro at 30% are well
orchestrated and set the stage for a sharp drop in PM prices. The Bear Is back. When Gold goes there will be no warning as the boys want to keep it down and thru the paper mkts they have control. GSC and others make money for once and get short. How many repeats of the same sitcom do you need to see before you can guess the ending ie much lower PM prices. We are near another High so here is the chance to get short and make money in this ( as you know ) manipulated mkt!! Get Smart and Get Short!! WAke up and see reality!!

F*'s Comments...this post is yet another classic example of the pre-deterministic outlook that holds goldbugs in thrall. It is replete with constantly cites past gold history and declares that "history must repeat itself!" It denies the possibility that there might ever be a trend shift in the metal so long as Rubin is at the Treasury. It is a classic example of linear thinking that denies any possibility of existential and spontaneously unique moments in life. The entire article is one huge manifestation of Freudian superego...kind of like a stern parent who tells his kid, "Son, you've never been much of anything in the past and you can never amount to anything in the future...because I say so!" It warns goldbugs that "the boys" are holding the price of gold that sense, it plays into the goldbug's fears of a retributive, God-like opposing force. In that sense, the admonition is almost religious in nature and counts upon the cowering reaction of a flock.



(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:40 - ID#317193)
Brother oris
The AK-47 was my thought of politicaly incorrect self-preservation. I will convey these thoughts to my "friend" Thanks. Tom

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:45 - ID#251268)
even though I am a Gold bull all the way,and even though
you write well and compeling truths nothing is better than
I DON"T CARE I'M BUYING MORE~~~~~~~~~come on man back on track!!!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:48 - ID#317193)
Concur-all my unworthy posts and rights thereto assigned to Bart & Kitco. Tom

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:51 - ID#340302)
@OLD GOLD, wife calls again so I must leave...
RE: Old Gold: I am not disparaging this man. I certainly respect his thoughts on the metal...he speaks from experience and experience is a great teacher...however, the downside of experience is its tendency to create pre-deterministic attitudes. Unfortunately, Old Gold, to a certain degree, is a victim of "Gold Malaise Syndrome." thoughts on gold have been expressed in the past...we are moving into a major trend shift and it will be a very forceful one. Moreover, I am certain it will happen...with or without the participation of the gentlemen on this forum. One of the reasons I post my thoughts at this group is that I think it would be karmic justice if many of the Kitcoites here can benefit from the imminent, dramatic upturn in gold. I have done a slow boil over the last year, reading the many condescending epithets hurled at gold bull Kitcoites by posters such as Karlito, Bernatz, RJ, etc. They are beneficiaries of "THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND," aject mindlessness of the current American society.

Unfortunately, I am afraid that many of the gold bulls on this forum don't quite "get it" and may miss out on a spectacular, exciting, rewarding time awaiting them just around the corner.



(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:51 - ID#250236)
On my previous query re takeover of lihir,can anyone tell me if they have heard anything?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:53 - ID#288369)
You will retain your copyright royalties as the author, and you would elect to assign your publishing rights for your posts, which is an equal amount of royalty to your publisher ( Kitco ) . I, too, am saying that my posts here probably will not be worthy of value. But we both just do not know that at this point in time.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:54 - ID#250236)
On my previous query re takeover of lihir,can anyone tell me if they have heard anything?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 21:59 - ID#31868)
Dear Paul:
hearts to and with you.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:00 - ID#24864)
Lihir trading normally this morning on ASX. A few minutes ago it was at A$1.29 down 3c, 1.5 million traded. Happy Trading

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:04 - ID#384350)
Tolerant1, What about those cute little blue people?
Tolerant1, are you a Belge?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:04 - ID#28994)
Never once in my life did I ever consider that the LORD would bestow the intelligence of the common flea upon a human being.
But He has......

(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:04 - ID#431263)
Haven't heard that BMG ( with only an 8.3% stake in Lihir ) was planning a takeover, but VENGOLD ( VENGF, with a 10.3% stake in Lihir and C95 million in cash is certainly planning one! In fact, just last Friday, Placer Dome ( PDG ) agreed to purchase 23.1 million Vengold shares ( 16.6% of all shares outstanding ) and placed an executive director on Vengold's board! Now THAT kind of stuff just doesn't happen UNLESS SOMETHING BIG IS GOING DOWN! On April 6, VENGOLD got another $46 million dollar cash infusion from a consortium of Canadian fund houses led by Midland, with which to purchase more of the Lihir shares and increase Vengold's percentage of ownership! My take on all this is that VENGOLD is gonn'a win in its attempt to gain a 51% controlling interest in Lihir and PDG is gonna' be ridin' on Vennie's coattails! Who knows but that PDG won't make a bid for Vengold once Vengold achieves its goal of control! In any event, VENGOLD ( VENGF and VEN.T ) and LIHIR ( LIHRY, LHG ) are BOTH STRONG BUYS AT CURRENT LEVELS DESPITE THE FACT THEY ARE ALREADY UP 66% FROM JANUARY LEVELS!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:05 - ID#247273)
farfel, et al
The desire of all regions/nations is for equality, not hegemony, especially in a time when military force is neither possible nor politically desirable. That may change in the future, however, in the meanwhile, USA continues to live off its "peace dividend", continuing to consume even larger amounts of resources produced by an essentially subservient producing world ( enslaved? ) . This situation, I agree, cannot continue, unless we can pull these other regions up to our level. Which has been the dogma preached for years. Never mind the economic and practical realities of having all the world on equally high consumptive levels. So our "goal", to bring them all along to our level, is the feel good policy sustained. But how in the current deprivation levels vis a vis Asia, can that goal be attained? Economics tells us that it cannot, therefore, something must give in this entire world wealth distribution. Producers will NOT remain subservient to consumers forever. US hegemony aside, production must reward its source ultimately and decisively. Now the only question is how. ANOTHER is addressing these themes, and I do not see the middle eastern bias, only the logic. As goldbugs, we tend to see everything through "gold colored glasses", but the majority of the world still looks through highly filtered blinders, provided by their economic masters.
Balance must be restored, we just speculate on the who,how and WHEN.


(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:08 - ID#432298)
Gold's destiny
Gold may have a brief movement upward as it had for the past few weeks but its major trend is downward. Until gold breaks out above its 200 day moving average and remain there for a while ( perhaps a week at best ) , only then can you say that gold has finaly broken out to the upside. Until then, be cautious.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:09 - ID#431263)
Must be some mistake, I've got LIHIR tradin' at $2.29A NOT $1.29A! Low for the year was $1.40 A! Better check your screen again!: )

(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:10 - ID#286199)
Aussie, Lihir is mentioned in this article from Friday....

(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:23 - ID#252127)
Mr Golden Cheesehead

In BMG's 3rd Quarter Report ( news release ) BMG stated that they sold their 50.5% Niugani Mining interest ( Niugini owns about 17.5% of Lihir ) to Battle Mountain Canada ( BMC ) a BMG subsidiary for $145 million.
Could it be that BMG is splitting up and/or we are going to see a BMC/Noranda battle with RTZ/PDG/VEN for Lihir?
IMO BMG was helped greatly by the Hemlo Gold merger and Noranda was playing the White Knight.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:26 - ID#288369)
who is flea?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:26 - ID#257136)
DRIFTER RE: yours of 19:53.
I wish I could be as sanguine about the courage and capability of the "average" U.S. citizen as you seem to be.
I look at the fact the repub revolution died aborning and nearly 90% of the "new Breed" have managed to go alomg with ol' B.J. and his socialistic nonsense.
The "people" apparently are not aware that the contract with America was abrogated by the young repubs.
It's the same old story of go along to get along.
As a student of history, I know the commies were able to steal the revolution from the Mensheviks and they ( commies ) had somewhat less than 3% representation in the population.

All that aside, I don't remember any great outcry being made on Patriots Day Five years ago when the incineration of many helpless children as well as adults was accomplished by the very gubmnt you feel could or would not mount an attack agaimst any group.
All that needs to be done is for them to be styled as "enemies of the people", and the federales can have their way as in Waco and Ruby Ridge and earlier, in Imboden, Arkansas.
In all of these examples there was little said by the "average" citizen and absolutely NOTHING done by the politicians of either stripe.

This post is an opinion and I do not wish you to believe I am attacking you.

Only expressing my frustration with the herd mentality of folks who do not know or care why they have had it so good.

Having seen first hand some of the depradations of our esteemed "servants" in the federal agencies, I can only pray that in the final analysis, you are correct and I am all alone out in RIGHT field!

BTW, the fact today is Patriot's Day is what started me thinking along these lines.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:29 - ID#253418)
In agreements
Bearish warnings on gold I agree. But Farfel's suggestion that gold bugs today will probably be out when the action really heats up and t the move higher will be carried by the optomistic never sell young trades who have powered the DOW. Frankly, I'm intent on being around, too, but the inability of the market to move here can not be denied. Failure of the XAU having croosed its 200 average and gold having not made that mark suggests the conspirators and conviscationalist will have to wait before
their senerios get any play in the real world.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:37 - ID#24864)
S.A. Golds benefit from recent price rise.
Harmony and Durban Deeps mentioned.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:38 - ID#431263)
Thanks for the info on BMC/BMG/NORANDA! Hadn't heard that BMG sold its stake in Nuigini! Yes, interesting! My take is that RTZ ( now RTP ) will eventually sell out and go on to its next development. They're into base metals more so than gold mining. Lihir is operating at such high efficiencies that there really isn't anything for the operator of Lihir to do but keep the current turned on and the machines operating 24 hrs. a day anyway! I look for Vengold to raise enough cash and convince enough institutions to use it as the preferred vehicle for owning LIHIR that its only a matter of time before it gains a 51% stake! Placer's 16.8% stake in Vengold is probably just the beginning in what may eventually turn out to be a move by Placer or a joint-move with Vengold for ownership! Whatever, I like my chances with VENGOLD and plane to increase my 25,000 share stake as resources permit! Wiedersehen! And keep me posted as to further developments down under!

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:41 - ID#384350)
Tricky, yer 15:39 post to Another
Good question worthy of a response by Another or anyone. I am more or less convinced there a several factions at the top whose bickering over who is king has spared us from total slavery. A Rothschild assassinated in the 70's and a Rockefeller felled in the 90's ( or was it the other way around? )

Obviously ANOTHER has the point of view that Gold will win out and become a world currency again rather than us first seeing a global fiat currency. Your concerns are real, as those paper maggots won't throw in the towel so easily.

Precedent Klinton had a major setback in not getting his fast track authority to merge NAFTA with Mercosur and create a Western hemisphere nation with one currency like what is going on in Euroland, eventually merging into one big Paper Family Tree.

Robnoel has mentioned the MAI, and I don't think the proponents of this Treaty are looking for a gold standard.

Le Roi, c'est moi!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:41 - ID#24864)
Mr Golden CH
Excuse my fat finger. Lihir is $2.29/$2.30 Last $2.29 on 2.3 million shares. Thanks GCH for picking up my error. Apologies.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:45 - ID#286199)
Golden Cheesehead
You may be on to something there...Vengold is ranked number 1 of 58 at this site:

(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:52 - ID#256326)
double your amusement

(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:52 - ID#256326)
amusing amusing farfel
Some of the most amusing posts of the weekend were those in which farfell was amused. i do have to admit that i have a strange sense of humor.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:52 - ID#256326)
amusing amusing farfel
Some of the most amusing posts of the weekend were those in which farfell was amused. i do have to admit that i have a strange sense of humor.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:55 - ID#431263)
Thanks for the confirmation! Hadn't even bothered to look at those YAHOO GOLD MINING RANKINGS! But, you can bet I will from now on! Surprised really that any gold mining stocks other than the XAU variety are being followed, much less a Jr. miner like Vengold. But, don't forget, Barrick started out as a penny stock a few years back and NOW look at it! : )

(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:55 - ID#57232)
Gold thoughts after scrolling thru Sat and Sun
Many thanks to all for the interesting posts this weekend.

mozel, ANOTHER: I think you both have spotted what the BIS has over the US. My guess - reading between the lines - is that traditionally the role of the BIS has been to send gold ( or its equivalent ) to certain CB's where it is needed. The BIS commands respect because of the wealth it represents. And -- there are probably 'unwritten' rules about what CB's/countries are to do with the gold they get from the BIS.

When the US/IMF started the 'War on Gold' in the late ( ? ) 60's, their antagonist was the BIS, suggesting that they had broken or wished to break the gold banking rules, and failed to return something that was not theirs. The US eventually lost the war, and we had the inflationary crisis that culmonated ( sp? ) in 1980. This process is happening again, with slightly different rules, as now the War on Gold includes gold derivatives, and the US dollar is 'floating'. But again the US/IMF is at odds with the BIS. Again the fiat currency countries will eventually lose, and the BIS will win.

I agree with our new poster that this process cannot occur overnight. The US dollar is the world's currency, so even the BIS can't pull the plug suddenly and let the worlds economic system go up in flames, regardless of what rules the US government has broken. Just as in the past, however, the BIS will eventually win. My guess is that we should expect something like the turmoil when the world came off the British pound sterling standard. Everyone eventually knew the UK was bankrupt, and the world shifted to the US dollar. But that cannot happen until there is a strong alternative currency to move to. I don't think we even have a second choice right now. Switzerland is too small.

On confiscation, I agree with Old Gold that we will have plenty of time to get gold 'windfall profits' before the government steps in. Instead of nationalizing the US gold equities, a more likely scenario is that the government fixes the price of gold to be sold to the US government ( all of it ) , or adds windfall taxes, just as they did for oil not so long ago.

One last item -- I finally understand what ANOTHER means when he says 'oil is currency'. He means it in the sense that any oil producer has collateral for future loans -- oil in the ground. Hence it is a form of reserves, even if the oil is really not a currency kept in a central bank.

Again I thank ANOTHER for his thoughtful posts. As I have said numerous times, I believe nothing until I have learned about it from many sources. What we have ANOTHER to thank for presenting fresh concepts -- without his ideas, we might not discuss all of the right topics.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 22:58 - ID#256326)
Actually I was thinking more of the ultimate lenders, the Central Banks, and not the dealers, in my comments on lending rope to the miners with which to hang themselves. As the Australian CB let slip upon the reaction to their divestment last year, if they need gold they can simply take it from the ground. The middle men will of course be ruined, and the mines will be owned by the CB's ( and a few private banks ) .

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:00 - ID#384350)
Tricky, a few more comments
ANOTHER points to the Euro as possibly undermining US hegemony in stealing its place as the oil-backed currency. I do not deny that as a possibility.

However all trends do point to a one world nation envisioned by Kissenger, Bush, Klinton, and Halfbright.

I would suspect currency collapse is near, with a new SDR type currency in the wings. However, I see this new currency as being used with no ( or little ) actual gold coin in circulation.

CB's want their gold, and want to spend it too.

Qu'ils mangent brioches!

(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:01 - ID#401460)
Sunday April 19, 9:59 pm Eastern Time

Economy stagnant with strong downward pressure-BOJ
``As a backdrop to weak final demand, output is falling and the severity of the employment and income environments
is increasing,'' Hayami said.


(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:03 - ID#253153)
A new concept----The coming Dollar Shortage
As many of you know I have been advocating deflation in all my recent postings. Why ?
The major indicator of whether we are in inflation or deflation is the currency market, and the currency market is saying deflation.We find the dollar at new high against the japanese yen, the deutsche mark, the swiss frank and many other currencies. it's worth more against oil and other commodities. A strong dollar means deflation. The growing strength
of the dollar has hurt countries and companies who borrowed for projects
such as oil production or investment in plant and equipment. Now oil is weak and the dollar is strong. This puts a tremendous squeeze on them.
Other countries have done the same thing. Now the commodities their dollar investments are producing are worth less, and at the same time ,the
dollars the owe are worth more. They are beginning to have a dollar SHORTAGE. As the cycle progresses ( moving into pure deflation ) and dollar shortages worsen, it will become very destructive. Businesses won't
have the dollars to pay the bills. As a result a severe financial crisis will occur as credit is destroyed. There are 3 ways to protect yourself .
1. US treasuries and T bills ( for income ) .
2. Cash on hand ( cash will be scarce ) .
3. Gold investments.
Gold will become the only truley profitable industry in the world. When
the crisis hits, there will be a tremendous run into gold.
Thank you and good night.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:04 - ID#28994)
Your words are mostley fine words.
WE must keep on the purpose.
Gold.. Money..True Capitalism
I have been and seen the other side.
I don,t need no 2% gold piece to tell me
what kind of gun to kill.
The ones that have been there usullay
don,t say much. Brings back too many

(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:15 - ID#401460)
Rubin resignation rumor?

Worth a repost, is there any new information on this rumor?

Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 14:53
Carl ( Rubin resignation rumor in US News ) ID#341189:


(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:23 - ID#254274)
snail mail
By my reckoning, another 6 months of this stock market bull and I will be totally energy self-sufficient. The quantity of junk mail increases almost daily, a deluge of investment ads, purveyors of investment strategy, how to get rich in the stock market, etc. Makes great burn material. The surest sign of the TOP is the US Post Office actually made a profit recently. This can only be because of the junk mail volumes and the automated handling of same. Paper Economy INDEED! The next wave is an equivalent deluge of email and internet junk mail, which will in turn suffocate the internet, since there is theoretically no limit to the generation of this mail. That, in turn, will bring down the ability of markets and investors to get through on the internet. Sound crazy? Don't count it out. The fever pitch of investing newsletters, schemes, etc., reflects and also drives the market. It has now a life of its own, and will likely consume itself, if not contribute to its own demise...

Weigh your investment junk mail, and buy equivalent amounts of gold...

(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:23 - ID#31868)
Gianni Dioro
barely able to knock the salt from the keys, Hmmmmmm, not Belgian, spoke with a friend who had horrible surgery, she is okay, great actually, had to go out to the water's edge, cried my guts out and then some, I thanked the above for her wellness...

Her resolve is that which my strength emulates..

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:24 - ID#384350)
JP et al, $ shortage
In the history of banking there has been a scam that has recurred over and over again. It's called usury, or the loaning of money for interest.

Let's say I controlled the vast majority of gold in the world, and I decided to make a large loan to my neighbour. He could use the gold to pay his soldiers, rape, pillage, buy nice clothes, women etc. But I loan my gold for 10% interest, or 10 for 11.

As the years go by, my neighbour pays me back the gold I lent him little by little. In reality he is paying back Capital which appears to be interest. After awhile, 7 years to be exact, he has paid me back AS INTEREST, all the gold that I loaned him. The poor fool still owes me the principal. He offers me repayment in other forms of wealth but I refuse. For I am smart. I made him a loan that was impossible to be repaid. 10 for 11. How can he repay interest with something that doesn't exist? That is that 11th ounce of gold for the 10 lent.

I say to him, "Dear neighbour you owe me gold."

He says, "I can't pay you back because there is no more gold in the economy ( existence ) . You have all the gold. I will give you all the land, grains, women that you desire."

I say, "I'll take what I desire, for you are now my slave."

Either my neighbour accepts being my slave, or he declares war against me as his being his money lender.

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:26 - ID#25867)
Kitco Publishing Corporation of America Incorporated
To Studio_R: The page probably would look a little neater without the copyright headers, but they're attached to each post for a reason. A lot of the messages here get redistributed on other discussion groups, by email, and in print or by fax. That's fine and I would encourage anyone to continue sharing whatever knowledge is gained here in this manner. I just think it's important for whoever receives it to be aware that the information comes with a copyright.

As far as publishing and royalties go I will be glad to share both when and f the time comes. But I wouldn't hold your breath for a "The Best of Kitco" in print. Being in the precious metals business the need for a sideline would materialize only in direct response to a major decline in the price of the metals. I don't think you'd want to see Kitco going into publishing.

EB: I anxiously await the epilogue to your drama.

To All: Our netiquette guidelines ask to avoid making insulting remarks aimed at other participants. As our group grows in size it's become necessary to enforce this rule more swiftly than in the past. Criticism is encouraged when it's eloquently directed at the idea, not at the person stating it.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:28 - ID#153102)
@confiscation by Eminent Domain
Government gets its way with people in America in a lot of matters simply because the people are never taught and never learn their rights at law and how to assert them in a court of law, buying instead into the false notion, which attorneys will never disabuse them of, that they can hire somebody to do it for them. If you as an individual cannot go to court and have your rights protected by government, the government is not serving the purpose for which it was established. Yes, I know, the lawyers and judges together have broken government by converting the law to a profit making venture so that government no longer efficiently performs the primary tasks for which it was established. But, how much of that is your own ignorance responsible for ? if a bunch of farty old farmers in Montana can figure it out, what excuse do you have for not finding people to study with and counsel together with ?

There has been put in place in America a power of eminent domain, which fundamentally should not be as it is because it has become a power of feudal government done by judges and not by jury. But, even as it is, the power of eminent domain is for taking and paying for property for common and public use and benefit. Land for a road, land for a government building, as examples. The idea that government can take because there are "gross inequities" between paper asset holders and gold holders is communism, plain and simple. It is not an exercise of eminent domain at all.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:30 - ID#256326)
The deflation argument was first formulated as a commercial product by R Prechter in the early 1980's, and has always been the mainstay of his shop. So far in 18 years we have seen only a diminution of inflation. If we are linear thinkers we must have deflation for dessert.

Prechter has always maintained that gold will go to $103 before $600 and that cash will be king ( your dollar shortage ) . Largely Prechter's gold call was based upon an incorrect analysis of exactly when the top in gold occcured. Jack Frost correctly judged that the orthodox top was in September of 1980 at ~$720. This makes a major difference in Elliott wave terms as to where the preceding 4th wave bottom lies. But enough of that!

Marc Faber was wise enough 18 months ago to see that de-inflation would accelerate largely due to Asian overbuilding, but bonds have not risen dramatically as he had imagined. The reason for all these events is that demand has not contracted as everyone had thought. The Asian overbuilding has kept a lid

(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:30 - ID#252127)

The resignation rumours have been around for some time.
Long enough to be ignored. This tid bit from yahoo last friday didn't seem interesting enough to post, but

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:30 - ID#384350)
JP, the Asian Crash
JP as to my 23:24 post of the history of banking, Isn't this what happened to Asia?

Interesting Times
(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:31 - ID#423355)
AZAU (political theory)
The desire of all regions/nations is for equality, not hegemony,

** Demonstrably untrue **

especially in a time when military force is neither possible nor politically desirable.

** Demonstrably incoherent.

That may change in the future, however, in the meanwhile, USA continues to live off its "peace dividend", continuing to consume even larger amounts of resources produced by an essentially subservient producing world ( enslaved? ) .

** Well, let's see... the "peace dividend" is the reduction in US resources allocated to the military since the end of the Cold War. How does this relate to consuming the resources of other nations? Also, the US *produces*, as well as consumes, disproportionately.

This situation, I agree, cannot continue, unless we can pull these other regions up to our level.

** This 'situation' ( uneven allocation of stuff ) has been the condition of personkind since the caves. And before.

Which has been the dogma preached for years.

** Yes, by socialists and other redistributionists.

Never mind the economic and practical realities of having all the world on equally high consumptive levels.

** 'Never minding' practical realities generally fails to make them go away.

So our "goal", to bring them all along to our level, is the feel good policy sustained. But how in the current deprivation levels vis a vis Asia, can that goal be attained? Economics tells us that it cannot, therefore, something must give in this entire world wealth distribution. Producers will NOT remain subservient to consumers forever. US hegemony aside, production must reward its source ultimately and decisively. Now the only question is how.

** Gee, I thought consumers rewarded producers by paying them for what they produce...

ANOTHER is addressing these themes, and I do not see the middle eastern bias, only the logic.

** Really?

As goldbugs, we tend to see everything through "gold colored glasses", but the majority of the world still looks through highly filtered blinders, provided by their economic masters. Balance must be restored, we just speculate on the who,how and WHEN.

** As mentioned above, this *balance* has never existed, and cannot therefore be *restored*. And how do "economic masters" provide "highly filtered blinders" that must be... oh, never mind.


** Interesting Times

(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:33 - ID#256326)
lost(message) in space
to continue.............The Asian overbuilding has kept a lid on prices
but demand has kept them from collapsing. Many manufactured items ( apart from computer boxes and
coca cola ) are in quite short supply. Try ordering anything even from catalogues.
I suppose that if a major clearing bank or exchange were to fail we could have a crisis of confidence and a
run on financial institutions, but barring that it seems clear that demand will continue and will gain on supply
so that deflation remains a very faint possibility. Most raw materials prices bottomed in 1986 or 1992 with a
few in 1996-97. Interest rates at the short end bottomed in 1992 and we have a triple bottom in longer rates
since 1993.
To me this all suggests a transitional period from decreased inflation to increased inflation. Gold should
firm up and rise slowly ( annualized ) for some years until things get frothy once more, probably in the
2020's. Stocks should do well after an reinflation-driven bear market decline of 20-35% and be much higher
in ten years. Cash is always good of course.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:35 - ID#344308)

from a technical stand-point...
i'd be rather nervous to be on
the short side of this

bart swattin flies faster than they can oh..bzzzzzzz...
heard that somewhere...maybe ted knows.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:35 - ID#401460)
Gianni Dioro__A

Have you seen the Credit Card accounts? They have been revised to variable rate " Prime + 15%. I remember when prime hit 21% that would make the interest rates on current accounts 36% or $3,600.00 interest cost for one year if you borrow $10,000.00. Useury for sure.

And money supply is starting to tighten on those who are the least bit late on a payment; while the banks are searching for any live body with decent credit that they can loan more money to.


(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:38 - ID#402183)
Gold Quarry closing?
The rumor du jour around the little league soccer field in Elko, NV this weekend was the possible cessation of mining in May at Newmont's Gold Quarry Mine on the Carlin Trend. More layoffs, more ounces off the market.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:42 - ID#384350)
Highrise, usury
Yes, in the fiat based system, usury has taken on a new meaning.

As to banks seeking any live body with decent credit ( or at least no bad credit ) , I read that was a major reason for the US Civil War. Most white folk either had all the debt they could or would take.

A simple solution was to free all the blacks, and then you would have people to borrow and keep the bogus system going.

Does the US being overrun by poor immigrants have anything to do with this. Is it not unlike Rome being overrun by Barbarians or Saracens?

(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:43 - ID#344308)'re-gonna-die..

btw....technically speaking..
gold should re-trace
around the 340---360 area....
happens all the time.............50% re-tracements that is...
with nothing un-natural causing

(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:44 - ID#170211)
Let's assume for the sake of argument
that stock in gold mining companies is paper, just like paper currency. But a difference with the stock of an ABX, HM or NEM ( or even Lihir or BMG for risk-takers ) is that a gold stock acts like a call option on the price of gold -- and pays a dividend, albeit small. So...wouldn't one be better positioned to take the ride with the stocks, while holding the reasonable amounts of physical gold/silver for safety plus cash?
If you take a look at gold's 11% rise from its 278 bottom, you will see that stocks have moved 3X that-- some more.
OK -- fire away.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:46 - ID#254274)
interesting times
Thanks for the parry and riposte. Enjoy the spirit of your response. Appreciate the thoughts, and would add that the status quo can continue for a long time; No way to know the WHEN, only that it has all happened similarly in the past, and will repeat. Again, thanks.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:49 - ID#344308)

j orlin....and up-dates.

read on...

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:50 - ID#384350)
Rubin's nose
Rubin probably just got a nose job to hide the Pinocchio effect. What did Cinderella say when she sat on Rubin's face?

Please tell me another lie.

Interesting Times
(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:53 - ID#423355)
AZAU (thoughts)
And thanks to you for your courteous reply. I think we are in agreement that a time of rapid changes is approaching.

Regards, I.T.

(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:54 - ID#231337)
Bre-X Hangover - skinny's question
Question: Is there still a big hangover from the Bre-x scandal? You Bet there is!! The VSE ( Vancouver Stock Exchange ) Jr. Metals have not recovered from this major oopsie!, and in fact have plunged resulting from the fallout of Bre-X combined with the drop in the Gold price. Fund managers are not buying into the Jr.s. The fear factor for a reprisal from both their investment strategists and investors is still too great. At the same time, its probably safe to say that the jr. developers and their potential sr. partners have taken more precautions than ever, and yet they fail to win investor support.

There are longer term repercussions that come about as a result of this under investment. The low price of Gold itself will not encourage any new development. That will only ( as far a these Canadian Jr.s can affect ) hinder the securing and development of new Gold sources. That coupled with the Bre-X fear factor will in all likelihood result in a drop in the gold development activity, although I have not seen any numbers for 1997.

But at the same time, there are Jr.s that are securing and developing fine properties, and they probably have as much leverage and opportunity as any part of the gold sector given that they are at rock bottom.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:56 - ID#384350)
@Aurophile, Jack Frost
Did Jack Frost make a prediction to the depths of Gold's lows, or can you interpret what he would have thought based on the different top?

And what was the difference in thinking of the 2 tops, what do you mean by orthodox?

Interesting Times
(Sun Apr 19 1998 23:58 - ID#423355)
Gianni Dioro_A (Cinderella)
I think the punch line is "Tell the truth!" "Now, tell a lie!!"

Pedantically, I.T.

P.S. Ever hear about Cinderfella, her mugly other, and her three sad blisters?