Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

Early Riser
(Tue Apr 21 1998 00:06 - ID#228275)
North Amer Palladium
Saul: I had trouble getting a quote for PDLCF today also.
I did find the following, however.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 00:12 - ID#230216)
@ work....still....(ugh)...
Has anyone else noticed Sydney pounding the crap out of Plat ( just after open ) for the past three days ( or so ) ? Damn ALL Aussies...... ( right salty? ) . FINALLY tonight they seem to be giving it a break...break even that is. C'mon you criminals.......knock it off! ( must be that Haggis fellow ) ....... ( damn him ) ........ home for a soak

EBmadatsheepshaggers.... ;- )

oh nick....I'm just takin the harm no foul..EH ( ? )

buy your kitco. BYM...SK!

CB - OK? put it on floppy ;- )

(Tue Apr 21 1998 00:25 - ID#345268)
TO: Early Riser on PDLCF

PDLCF has been delisted from Nasdaq because of heavy losses.
Get quotes from PDL.TO ( Toronto ) but are in Canadian dollars and you have to convert if you live elsewhere.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 00:27 - ID#284255)
ANOTHER's transcripts updated

GCM8 @ 720 minutes

silver plate
(Tue Apr 21 1998 00:38 - ID#234253)
Open-loop sam quixotic 1 HAMS
Just another ham checking into the golden ham network. Been a general for many years. was licensed when 6 meters was 5 meters.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 00:41 - ID#266105)

Glassman -- a beaut, or BAU-- business as usual.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 00:42 - ID#255151)

There is an amazing amount of information on Gold, Silver, and other topics, available to Kitco folks. Whether you think Goldbugs are nuts or not, there is something about this place that keeps the hook in. Even those who leave, eventually return. Kitco is like Gold, once you have seen it, you are hooked.

John Disney__A
(Tue Apr 21 1998 00:51 - ID#24135)
Conspiracy !!!!!
To all
The UN and the world press have worked tirelessly to
crush Jonas Savimbi in Angola and to give power to
Dos obvious African style RED and a murderous
They also went after Buthelezi and Inkatha in RSA
with the same dedication while supporting the ANC
despite it being a terrorist group ( albeit an incompetent
one ) .
Ive always wondered who pushes their buttons.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 21 1998 00:51 - ID#347447)
Auric, All
Auric: Goldbugs ARE nuts.

ALL: re ANOTHER, sharefin's update contained this recent and graphic quote from perhaps our most fascinating and mysterious poster ( aside from Ted ) :

" Will you bid $1,000 when your broker screen shows $475? I myself, as
a country will be "there"! You sir, will stand well behind most in line.

I tell my children, as you may tell yours:

"when a thousand hungry lions fight for one scrap of food, small dogs should hide with what's in their belly"

Aside from the power of this description ( a lovely use of the english language if you ask me ) , the implication is that Another is an "official" of some kind within his own nation. "I myself as a country will be "there"' This was my original and continuing impression.

Anyhow - G'day/G'nite all - Golden Dreams! ( Day or Night )

(Tue Apr 21 1998 00:51 - ID#31868)
Please forgive me for not responding earlier, I have been sitting with dear friends looking out on the harbor and visiting far off images on easels they paint for me within their conversation. I shall miss them as they are moving...sigh

Regarding your comments, specifically the emotive kindness which you are trying to exhibit to others, I think that they are all too comfortably weaned on the umbilical of their beliefs. These are fragile systems, they realize not what they speak of, I applaud your laudatory actions and commend you, respect you, and say most emphatically, do not tire in your effortsthe good fight is never done

Gulp, a toast to you and yours

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 21 1998 00:55 - ID#347447)
tolerant 1
The umbilical of their beliefs...what turn of phrase...a caress of words as I head for the fetal position in the womb of my down-filled comforter, my head arest upon a large red clown nose, bulbous in the nite.


(Tue Apr 21 1998 00:55 - ID#256250)
Well folks in my short tenure as comex data gatherer...
FWN does not have the final reports for comex gold and silver stocks.

I can't post what I can't obtain. Have we struck a nerve or is there some strange data problem? Can't say. I will check again tomorrow.

I can give you volumes on contract trades:


Gold 15,000
Silver 15,000
H.G. Copper 6,500

Arden already posted the general breakdown on the stocks.

COMEX Delivery Notices for Today

-- -- -- -- TOTAL DELIVERY NOTICES -- -- --
SO FAR FOR April 4,821 61 4,080

Now let us hopw we will get the eligible stocks later.

By the way isn't the palladium action fun. Seems people are not worried about the paper palladium, but those poor unfortunate folks that need the real thing are hurting BIGTIME.

Just a glimse of things to come. Buy gold and TAKE delivery while you still can.

John Disney__A
(Tue Apr 21 1998 01:00 - ID#24135)
Even Andy is hooked ..
to all
...........on Kitco ... The "war of
northern aggression" got him big time.
Is he REALLY farfel ?? .. a deep cover operation ??
I grow more certain every day.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 01:08 - ID#255151)
Mike Sheller-True Story

Yep, Goldbugs are nuts. Imagine this-- Somehow, you get invited to an adult education class on stock market investing. Let's say you get called on to make a comment on investing. You stand up and start talking about Gold, the Central Banks, and the EMU. Pretty soon, people start looking at you like you're nuts. Then you sit down, deciding you have already said too much. Heh heh! I hadn't even gotten to the Rosthchilds and the BIS yet!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 01:08 - ID#266105)
@altered igors

jd-- well, ok, soze ur...well...HEPRAT!!?!!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 01:15 - ID#345268)
Monetary Mismanagement and the Role of Gold.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 01:17 - ID#340302)
F*'S Evaluation of the GOLD market (Late Post)...
A long, lengthy and highly rewarding early morning meeting...then with 90 degree, beautiful L.A. weather, my wife seduced me into hanging out with her poolside. Heaven...sheer heaven! Hence, the delay in old F*'s report.

Yesterday's action was extremely light as both gold longs and shorts are equally devoid of conviction about the current market direction.

The KITCO barometer remains fairly cynical with goldbugs generally inclined to believe that gold's fall will occur long before its rise.

The Precious Metals Relativity Index saw palladium make another enormous leap above gold. Historical relativistic positions of the precious metals are way out of whack, indicating excessively strong industrial demand for the white metals as befits an evolving inflationary environment.

Gold price remained flat as did the XAU...this in spite of a tremendous surge in the tech stocks. There is little doubt that an enormous slice of mutual fund liquidity is chasing tech stocks. Tech fundamentals seem to be almost completely irrelevant to this sectors' stock performance. All upside and seemingly no downside!! What does it mean?

As of today, I am upgrading GOLD from EXTREMELY BULLISH to HOLY SH_T, WATCH OUT ABOVE!


HINT: My friend A. GOOSE was unable to obtain COMEX inventory reports on GOLD today. Golly gosh... I wonder why?



Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Tue Apr 21 1998 01:18 - ID#25867)
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs)
To 223: The huge spread in the Pd market reflects the risk that traders must take when they quote a spread in a market that is both thin and volatile. Todays lease rates were 135%, indicating an unprecedented tightness of supply. Most dealers accept this and so I dont think that sellers would be embarrassed to publish a quote. The reason Kitco doesnt display a standing buy price for Pd is because it rarely comes to us in its pure form. There are no standard purities for palladium like you have in the other metals like "karat" or "sterling".

FWIW: Iridium, another of the platinum group metals, is trading at $575.00 an ounce, up from $60.00 about two years ago. It is being used by the Japanese auto makers as a replacement for palladium catalytic converters. Rhodium , when it was worth $5000.00 was replaced by $80.00 Pd eight years ago for the same reason. Ruthenium is $40.00 an ounce today, was $40.00 an ounce last year. I dont know if any studies have been conducted to see if this PGM could replace any of the others, but it would be pretty neat to know if it could .

(Tue Apr 21 1998 01:19 - ID#31868)
Mike Sheller
for me, truly, your friendship is above worth, nothing could ever be traded that might exceed your words of honor and the kindness housed within your heart

In the original house, when honor was pounded out on the anvil of TRUTHlong before Thor, as a child, was given a hammer

In that home, you Sir shall always be welcome

(Tue Apr 21 1998 01:20 - ID#340302)
@DISNEY...No, Mousester, I am NOT Andy Smith...
...thank the good Lord.

However, I do have several good friends with last names SMITH. They are all great people.



(Tue Apr 21 1998 01:27 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

FSAGX & FDPMX appear to be making a bottom,
but the XAU & HUI continue to decline???

(Tue Apr 21 1998 01:38 - ID#340302)
@AUROPHILE...thank you for your earlier compliments...
...concerning my passion and strong belief in gold. They are truly appreciated.

As you know, I am not a great fan of technical analysis and I know you are often wont to make "short term technical calls." I am sorry if previous posts denigrating the "charter's science" upset you. It was not intended as a personal attack. Next time, I shall try to be more delicate.

Thanks again.


(Tue Apr 21 1998 01:49 - ID#16255)
@silver plate. another ham goldbug. bring them outta the woodwork
Boy this is great, I mention hamradio and they come out in droves.
you are #3 now just today. today I turned 41 and is a nice present
to see other hams subscribe to this site. we should start our own
discussion group hihi. I'll be in here for another hour or so.


(Tue Apr 21 1998 01:50 - ID#340302)
@SELBY...a DOW move to 9900 is a "sure bet...??"
...because all investors are determined to push the DOW toward the round number, 10,000???

Hey, I'll take that much?

I have an insurance salesman buddy who posited the same theory to me. Again, he wanted to make a bet on the matter.

I call it "The Round Number Theory of Stock Market Appreciation."

I think the logic is quite amusing so I have come up with an even more compelling theory...

Mine is "The Millennium Theory of Stock Market Appreciation." It says that the stock market must reach 20,000 by the year 2000 so that Madison Avenue will be able to create a whole variety of mass advertisments based on the simile, thereby making hefty 21st Century profits which they can plough back into the surging stock market.

Selby, let me tell you something...IT'S A SURE BET!



(Tue Apr 21 1998 02:03 - ID#255151)
Dow 20,000, Gold 30,000

Now there's a thought. Look, I'll be satisfied with Gold solidly at $500 or better, and a measely 3,000 point Dow hair cut.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 02:07 - ID#257148)
didja get my mail re our leetle wager a spin or two ago?

Ya are not welching are ya?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 02:11 - ID#284255)
Avid Chatter
From a zdnet article -- Gates said his new multi-million dollar home has more than 40 Windows PCs that do things like turn lights on and off. "It works most of the time," he said, though he noted that "it brings a certain thrill to simple tasks."

Just saw a segment on TV where gates was demonstrating the windows '98 system and it crashed during the demonstration. He tried to joke about saying "I guess that's why we haven't starting shipping yet.." ... the guy on stage with him was giggling nervously and saying there are still a few bugs to work out LOL!!

I live pretty close to Gates house and a friend of mine who has been in it says, the house was build with LEAD Lined wall to prevent ease-dropping.

Gates, house is right on the water and a lot of boats sit in front of his house and take pictures. The house is 40,000 sq ft est.

In a Top 14 list on "signs that Microsoft is a monopoly," Scott McNealy CEO of Sun Micro cracked: "Your house is bigger than the White House," "Janet Reno has you on speed dial," and "The Department of Justice opened up a branch office in your headquarters."

WOW!! I just got my nightly email from CBOE and was shocked to see the lowest p/c ratio in quite some time... which lowers the MA #'s and suggests that many are getting bullish here. I don't find the p/c ratio nearly as significant for finding tops then identifying bottoms, but numbers are now suggesting that bears have either converted or given up. Interesting to see sentiment beginning to shift quite a bit here

I am just an old west Texas country boy, but it looks to me like Mr. Mkt has both sides by the gonads. hurts if you do and hurts if you don't. This puppy can certainly go up a few handles but the next 50 - 60 handle move will be down.IMHO.....they we will see if we go back up to new highs of down to wave 4 bottom an 6000+ or the super tank Prechter style. Such options either 12000 or 800...WHAT A CHOICE. What a horse race!!!!!

We've been making LOWER highs on the 52 week high list as we've been climbing steadily higher... we've exhausted the easiest money [early year retirement inflows]... my breadth system that was long from 969.02 spx just gave a sell to cash signal last week... and finally the put buyers have given up their buying panic and the put/call #'s are the most bearish they've been on this entire leg up AND today's # was .48 on a down day when we usually see the number INCREASE from the previous day.... We've got a rising head and shoulders still forming on the s&p 500 that measures to lose about 40 handles once and if the neckline breaks.... I'm not saying we can't go higher, but if there was anytime that I would say we're seeing warning signs... it's right now.

The Ministry of Finance reported that Japan's merchandise trade surplus rose to 1.253 trillion yen ( $9.51 billion ) in March, up 57% from a year earlier. Imports dropped 11% in yen terms, to 3.34 trillion yen, while exports increased only 1.1% to 4.59 trillion yen

While Japan's trade with Asia has hit the skids due to the region's economic crisis, exports to the U.S. and Europe have climbed enough to make up for slack Asian demand. Exports to Europe rose 21% to 819.5 billion yen, while shipments to the U.S. rose another 5.6% in March.

Japan's largest newspaper, widely seen as close to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, on Tuesday published an unprecedented front page ``prescription'' for reviving the country's flagging economy, which it compared to the doomed Titanic. The Yomiuri Shimbun, once a strong supporter of Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, criticised the Japanese leader for his handling of the economy, and called for an end to ``faceless'' prime ministers.

Postpone the target date for reducing fiscal deficits. -- Permanently cut income tax and corporate tax. -- Invest in social infrastructure, including information and telecommunications networks. -- Realise limits to the market economy. -- Make use of public funds to securitise real estate held as collateral. -- Bring an end to ``faceless'' prime ministers. -- Stop irresponsible verbal intervention by politicians.

it puts more pressure on the Yen.. Things are really coming to a head in Tokyo. When the Nikkei drops below 15000 and yen get near 135 things will start happening.

spoos are an all or nothing market, the objective is 114230 tomorrow or bust, period. If you don't think it'll break tomorrow you have to be a seller, whatever they show you at the open

if i were the market, i would say give the bear some food otherwise the revenge may be great....: )

oleman . .
topx:If today;s high breaks tomorrow, 42.30 breaks also. Fuel tanks too near empty for aerobatics now. gotta go for the ceiling now or glide to a landing.

topxprt . .
oleman: I don't think there is enough gas in the tank, sometime tommorrow they need to refuel. If they break 4230 with no attempt to refuel it's all fumes baby, and we may see a top sooner than we think

oleman . .
topx: time is quickly running out. gonna get a gap up reversal in the next 2 or 3 days ( maybe tomorrow ) . Gotta happen unless we get enought of a dip tomorrow to get the fokes all "putted up" again. Money been pouring into calls for 5 sessions. Bears virtually putless. Nothing but the attraction of 42.30 to hold it up here now. Gotta blow and go tomorrow, IMO, or I will be positioned short.

oleman . .
topx: gonna be interesting tomorrow. 1112 MUST hold. Whether 42.30 breaks this week or not, we wont see this weeks highs again for several weeks. But the top will be in the fall. Unless, of course, we pull back slightly here and run to your 1170 area right away. THAT would be a TOP. But I dont think so. Aint this fun!

oleman: what is the scenario you are seeing for a month out??on spx in general.

oleman . .
By the end of may, we should be thru with the coming correction and on our way to the stratosphere. Bed time ------nite all.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 02:14 - ID#255151)
aurator--That Sounds Like a Wager I Would Make

Refresh my memory. Was it $290 or lower on the spot before July?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 02:38 - ID#255151)

You scooped the Free Republic by 15 minutes on the "No Account Government" story. Read the story and some comments here--

(Tue Apr 21 1998 02:38 - ID#257148)
Here you go--


Date: Fri Feb 27 1998 02:14
aurator ( steak sounds nice... ) ID#255284:
Not quite. I am wagering that the gold low is not in and that there will be a new low spot before june 30 1998. That new low will be closer to 272
than to 280, but there will be a new low anyway.
In that post it was 1/2 oz Mape. Getting no replies I thought I'd "up" the steaks ( sic ) to 1/2 oz Gold Kiwi 9999 to your 1/2 oz Gold Maple.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 02:41 - ID#31868)
First, and foremost, ever been to Argentina? or one of the guays, I mean if you are going to talk steak I need to know if you are qualified...

(Tue Apr 21 1998 02:43 - ID#255151)

Try this-- ( the previous URL was inaccurate )

(Tue Apr 21 1998 02:59 - ID#257148)
little argent, leetle silver. a lot like Platina, also little silver.

Nope, ne'er been to Argentina, but I have gnawed on more than one mad cow, or at least on a stubborn steer or two.

You should try Nude~sea~land beef ( thanks again Fred@Vienna )

(Tue Apr 21 1998 03:13 - ID#255151)

I often read the Scrolls from the Kitco catacombs. When I get too much time on my hands, I will pick a date at random, and read from that particular date at Kitco. On any day, there are several posts that are well worth rereading. I can scan past posts/threads/arguments/ that are not of interest, and read the nuggets that get posted here daily.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 03:20 - ID#31868)
Had a great response, sorry, bleeding, think I broke my nose.........gosh darn it, I did...not happy now!!!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 03:25 - ID#39828)
Nude-sea-land beef....Hmmmmmmmm Aurator.
Are you referring to waterboys? You know, the ones that ride
on motors powered by AA batteries.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 03:29 - ID#284255)
Speed bumps on the CME

(Tue Apr 21 1998 03:30 - ID#255151)

BTW, been meaning to ask this. Is Peter Snell still around? He was one of the greatest runners in the '64 Olympics. To keep this on topic, he won a few Gold Medals, eh?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 03:32 - ID#31868)
fell over the ottoman, later, don't ask,

(Tue Apr 21 1998 03:40 - ID#257148)
Noone wants anymore Economist "jokes"?
Och Aye! There is much wisdom in the sagesdotpages@kitco. I always thought that history was being written here. Little did I know that already there are published several books and articles that refer to these most special pages. Thank you Bart.

You've done it again, it looks like English. Once more the bald eagle soars above my dim-witted head

Giving your blood for the cause of Truth. It is meat, right and beef to be so.

Economics is extremely useful as a form of employment for economists.
-- John Kenneth Galbraith

Recession is when your neighbor loses his job. Depression is when you
lose your job. These economic downturns are very difficult to predict,
but sophisticated econometric modeling houses like Data Resources and
Chase Econometrics have successfully predicted 14 of the last 3

"I am not an Economist. I am an honest man!"
-- Paul McCracken

Isn't it strange that the same people that laugh at gypsy fortune
tellers take economists seriously?

SOCIALISM: You have two cows. State takes one and give it to someone else.
COMMUNISM: You have two cows. State takes both of them and gives you milk.
FASCISM: You have two cows. State takes both of them and sell you milk.
NAZISM: You have two cows. State takes both of them and shoot you.
BUREAUCRACY: You have two cows. State takes both of them, kill one and spill the milk in system of sewage.
CAPITALISM: You have two cows. You sell one and buy a bull.

Q: What do you call a little girl in a brown dress who is running across a playground?
A: A brownian motion.

"Eighty percent of rules of thumb only apply 20 percent of the time"

Artists' Brains $9/lb
Philosophers' Brains $12/lb
Scientists' Brains $15/lb
Economists' Brains $19/lb

Upon reading the sign, the traveller noted, "My those economists' brains must be popular!" To which the butcher replied, "Are you kidding! Do you have any idea how many economists you have to kill to get a pound of brains?!"

HA! ... It's a *supply side* joke!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 03:42 - ID#22956)
Battle of the Aur's......ator & ic.....
This is most excellent. Well.....what will it be? to 272? wow. Is this from the wave dude or is it your own work? mail me in..... ( ya me regarding ) . btw, the bubblies are slowing and things are on looking good. Gearing up for next stage... uh huh. go golden. mmmmmm...

Auric...what will it be? By July? wow. That Tasmanian Devil sounds quite serious. Got the eggz ( ? ) ?

what will gold do?

Buy more mounties.......uh huh. BMM...UH.

away ( ting ) the final wager.

willholdthemoney ;- )

salty...can i get some of that action?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 03:49 - ID#255151)

I read your post on the Mounty that you received. Am now inspired to get off my a** and call Kitco about purchasing some Mounties. I've talked about getting the Mounty, but you have actually done it. Time for me to put up.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 03:51 - ID#284255)
Cow Jokes
A newspaper columnist was found guilty and fined for calling a countess a cow. When the trial ended and the man paid his fine, he asked the judge, since it was now clear he couldn't call a countess a cow, if he could call a cow a countess?

The judge said it was all right to do so. Whereupon the newspaperman turned to the countess in the courtroom, bowed elaborately, and said, "How do you do, Countess?"

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:06 - ID#20135)
I am on ( finally ) I think???? Where is everyone else???

Hello. Hello ...

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:06 - ID#304282)
Tell me this isn't a mania. This can't go on for much longer

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:08 - ID#348286)
@AU - Wow finally got in after trying all morning !
320 coming soon to a Gold store near you!
Is it today ?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:08 - ID#427357)

Unmistakably, we are in a new BULL MARKET, as the XAU balsts its 200 day moving average.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:09 - ID#348286)

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:10 - ID#348286)
Seems to have been down all morning..... Back now with the POG

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:11 - ID#39971)
Knok Knok Konk
Anyone hoooome!Hello Hello.....Is that Gold I see,looking down on me?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:11 - ID#372262)

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:11 - ID#433142)
Kitco discussion down?
Spot gold spikes $2.70 whilst Kitco discussion group is "off line." I'm getting paranoid. Go gold.


(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:11 - ID#243166)
The Dow and Mini -skirts
If the Dow is at or near a top where are all the mini-skirts anyway? None around northern Virginia.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:13 - ID#20135)
OK. So here is what happedned last night:

I logged to futuresource as I usually do, to pick up the reports on gold and silver warehouse stocks and ... well it was unbelieveable. Silver warehouse stocks part one was listed BUT silver warehouse part 2 ( which is where I get the eligible, registered and totals for silver from ) was not. Also gold warehouse stocks were not to be found either.

VERY unusal I thought ... BUT I didn't jump to conclusions last night.

Does ANYONE have access to the comex gold and silver final warehouse stocks for 4/20/98?? If you do please post them.

Farfel looks like you made a heck of a call last night. WOW!!

OH, buy gold and take delivery WHILE you still can.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:13 - ID#372262)


(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:14 - ID#251268)
I thought you guys had picked up shop and left without me,
whats up?besides GOLD!!!!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:14 - ID#66136)
All finally in - what other site if we go back down

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:14 - ID#372262)
NEM UP 2!!! @33!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:14 - ID#238295)
I feel their pain
Looks like the bears are in for a mauling today. I feel their pain and hope there is a lot more coming.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:16 - ID#243166)
Gold Surge
What's going on? Why the big move up?

Charles Keeling
(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:16 - ID#344225)

GO GOLD/SILVER. Gold to blow right by Palladium.

Time for Rotation.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:17 - ID#373403)
The spot gold chart looks stimulated
So am I!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:17 - ID#304282)

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:17 - ID#348286)
@YES +4.30 - Look at the chart ROCKET ! Does anyone have news WHY ???
320 coming........

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:18 - ID#372262)

NEM UP 2 1/8!!!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:19 - ID#304282)
xau chart Need to get through resistance at 90^xau&d=b

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:19 - ID#20135)
And I think I noticed that the US dollar was weak today!
Futures Contracts
Updated as of: Apr 21, 1998 @ 1:12 pm ET

Sym. Company Name Last Change %Chg High Low Vol.

GC M8 June Gold 3120 +24 +0.8 3123 3090 8.77K
SI K8 May Silver 6305 +90 +1.4 6315 6155 9.78K
HG K8 May High Grade Copper 8460 +140 +1.7 8520 8310 2.80K
PL N8 July Platinum 4138 -21 -0.5 4140 4110 684
PA M8 June Palladium 29400 +790 +2.8 29490 28710 290
HO K8 May Heating Oil 4440 +73 +1.7 4470 4350 8.48K
HU K8 May Gasoline Unleaded 5335 +93 +1.8 5370 5180 15.3K
NG K8 May Natural Gas 2549 +80 +3.2 2570 2485 17.1K
CR A0 Commodity Research Bureau Index 22689 +93 +0.4 22689 22596

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:19 - ID#372262)


(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:20 - ID#254201)
Couldn't get in earlier, went long july silver at 6.24 stop 6.15.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:20 - ID#347447)
woody, all
it's a Mars conjunction with NYSE Venus today. Enjoy it while it lasts.
Kitcoities will remember I've been watching for Mon/Tues this week for a couple of weeks now. It's a welcome boost, but it remains to be seen if there's a kickoff here. A few more days may tell.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:21 - ID#339274)
FWIW Rangy and Drooy are completing a 5 month long head and
shoulder formation.Their move up could be spectacular.
As said April 20 was the turning point .End of August is the next one
to the downside.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:21 - ID#372262)
HM UP 3/4 to 12 1/8! ASA UP 1 1/4! BRKA DOWN 1600! OIL OVER 16!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:23 - ID#373403)
Margin status
Hello Mr. Short, we would like to discuss your margin account with you...

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:25 - ID#238295)
Cyclist: Congratulations on a brilliant call!

Crystal Ball: You ought to change your handle. Your crystal ball is looking mighty cloudy.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:25 - ID#372262)


(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:25 - ID#427357)

Gold bullion prices are indeed cyclic. In absence of extraneous influences ( war, political unrest in a major area, and/or other international calamities ) , there is a seasonal trend in gold prices.

According to a study made by an internationally recognized financial research organization, "investors should be alert to the seasonality in gold prices." The study covered the 13-year period from 1982 through 19994 -- basically the major portion of the long bear market, which began in January 1980 when gold futures reached $850 per ounce.

The study results demonstrate bullion prices usually begin the year with first quarter weakness - which is worst in March. This is followed by increased strength in the price to August, when gold begins its second weakest month. Subsequently, the gold price trend strengthens to yearend.

The report asserts there may be identifiable reasons for the regularity of the gold cycle. March celebrates the end of the Chinese New Years festivities, the end of the Indian marriage season, and commencement of the Islamic holidays. August weakness is attributed to traditional summer vacation time in Europe. Similarly, the 11 weeks ( three months ) prior to Christmas account for 40% of jewelry sales, meaning good levels of fabrication demand are experienced in September and October, allowing prices to strengthen. And price strength at yearend is also typically "window dressing," since most producers and gold mutual funds use yearend prices for published statement purposes ( Annual Reports to the public ) - and therefore have a vested interest in higher prices, causing prices to be bid up.

Gentlemen, needless to mention the year's weakest month for GOLD just ended ( March ) - albeit bullion prices have ALREADY BEGUN TO RISE. Subsequently, based upon gold's 13-year seasonality study, we should be enjoying higher bullion prices for the next four months. OH, and an added gold price booster will be the announcement by the EMU in May as to amount of gold backing ear-marked for the new Euro. Expert consensus estimates the gold backing will be between 15% to 30% -- with most educated bets on the latter. For the Euro to see the light of day as a weak currency would ensure its STILLBIRTH. Frankly, I credit Europe's financial powers to be with more common-sense. Noteworthy to remember is the fact that Italy's currency is already 30% gold backed, France's currency is 50% gold supported, and if I'm not mistaken the ultra-conservative Swiss Franc 100%. All logic forces one to conclude the Euro will have a very strong gold backing.

CONSEQUENTY, gold mining stocks should indeed appreciate - perhaps even substantially.

History demonstrates that succeeding bull markets always take out its past highs. This one will be no exception. Consequently, when the looming gold bull market progresses to that stage, we will see each of the above three securities again reach their March 1997 highs. Following are the expected per cent appreciation of these securities. You may verify my figures by going to the websites listed below - just set default parameters for "3-years/weekly and Stochastics for an 8 period, and a Simple Moving Average of 40:

FSAGX will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: ....80%

DROOY will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: .270%

RANGY will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: ..480%

OH, by the way,... almost forgot, DROOY is already UP 11% TODAY.
TIME AND GOLD and gold shares wait for no one...

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:27 - ID#201238)
Kitco Krash Indicator
You know its a good day for gold bulls when you can't get into Kitco - lets just call it the Kitco Krash indicator - I have been trying to log on since five this morning PST.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:27 - ID#403234)
Must be addicted!!!
Spend more time worrying about lousy 10% invested in PM's than the other 90%. Everything looked good at other sites so why do I just have to get my fix from Kitco?? This going to start costing money right???

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:28 - ID#251268)
Eh Mike,
not trying to stop your style of posting but I'm a bible
believeing person and if every time I contributed to this forum
I tied it to the bible ( and I probably could ) it would detract
from whatever limited contribution I was trying to make,so word to the wise,I will take your posts more seriously if you lay off a bit on
your astrolgy angle a bit, GO GOLD !!!!!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:28 - ID#24864)
In trying to find out about Gold warehouse stocks. What has changed?
Why aren't the figures published. Please let us know if you find anything.
After Kitco 1 has been down 10 hours, it's nice to come back and see a little irrational exuberance in the PM markets. Spot around $311.50,
XAU at 89.11 as I post. Happy Trading All.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:30 - ID#324266)
JSE All Gold Index up 0.74% to 948. Massive packet loss on internet today.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:31 - ID#254269)
@ Donald; Dow/Gold Ratio Chart
Received your latest chart last night. Thanks. I am amazed at the "range of volatility" just over the last nine months.

@ All; still having some trouble with my email. Has a lot of trouble accessing Kitco this morning; tried several times during the last four hours.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:31 - ID#372262)

CDE UP 9/16! ABX UP 1 5/16! BMG up 9/16 to 7 9/16! June Gold @$312.70.NEM UP 2 1/4!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:31 - ID#36156)
From the looks of it, no one could get into Kitco this morning. I've been trying since 6:30 ( USA Central ) this morning. The only good news is that ( for once ) the spot price frame was working during the blackout and I could at least track POG.

Ole Bart must've had his hands full today, eh?

HenryD - Go Gold!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:32 - ID#201238)
comex data
I posted comex data at about 5 pm EDT the past few days.

No conspiracy there, sometimes the stories just aren't available for a long time.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:34 - ID#251166)
Thanks tricky -- Here's one possible explanation for rising POG
U.S. Senator Says NATO Expansion Poses Nuclear Risk

Tuesday, April 21, 1998 10:12AM

WASHINGTON ( April 20 ) XINHUA - U.S. Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan warned Monday that expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ( NATO ) could pose the greatest risk of nuclear war.

Speaking at the Associated Press's 150th anniversary, Moynihan, a New York Democrat, said the alliance's expansion seriously threatened the U.S.-Russia relations and Russia could perceive the move as a threat warranting use of its nuclear arsenal.

"This would come about not from Russian strength, but Russian weakness," Moynihan said.

"If we go ahead, we have to recognize that without having intended it, we may have raised the prospect of nuclear war to the most intense point it has ever reached since the beginning of the nuclear age," he said.

Last July, NATO leaders decided to accept Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic as its new members and signed accession protocols with the three in December last year.

The protocols need to be approved by the Senate. A vote of two-thirds is necessary for the approval.

A group led by Moynihan and Senator John Warner, a republican from Virginia, proposes that the measure be accompanied by a three-year freeze on additional membership beyond the three.

Last month, Senate Majority leader Trent Lott decided to postpone the vote just weeks after the Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted overwhelmingly to approve it.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:37 - ID#372262)


(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:37 - ID#347235)
Have we found the secret?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:39 - ID#347235)
Sorry hit enter too quick
Have we found the secret? Kitco 1 goes down for a few hours, POG goes up! Maybe some of us had time to go BUY some instead of talking about it Hmmm?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:40 - ID#57232)
What's up with gold/gold stocks? Rally out of the blue, it seems
All: Inflationary economic news? JCI, CRY0 commodity price index rise? Dollar selling by? Predious metals short covering? Pros heading for the precious metals exits, now that we are continuing with our equity bull market?

Oldman thinks equities will peak in a few days, correct and bottom in May, and then continue into the Stratosphere. I think now an equities rally means a gold rally, and equity turmoil means a gold rally.

If the equities market is about to twitch significantly, then gold/gold stocks may also. Looks like a major equities and precious metals rally coming up very soon -- possibly in May after a short term blowoff if Oldman is right.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:40 - ID#372262)

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:41 - ID#330175)
up 5.19

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:41 - ID#316256)
every dog has his day.
Even those dogs ECO and RYO are up today. ARF! ARF!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:42 - ID#372262)

XOI UP 4.08!!!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:42 - ID#20135)
Date: Tue Apr 21 1998 13:32
arden ( comex data ) ID#201238:

Arden they had silver part 1. Why didn't they post part 2 ??

Everyday for the last two months they have posted the details along with the summaries that you post. As you pointed out long ago they summary groups eligible with registered and sometimes there is quite a difference.

Do you have or know someone that has access to this data. JUST curious.

I have to run. BBML

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:45 - ID#20135)
This is the first part of the DAILY report I use. Part 2 never showed up. ???
FWN: 150248 GMT

COMEX Silver Warehouse Stocks, Part 1

silver warehouse stocks:
-- SILVER ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received
Total Withdrawn
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
3,614,836 0 0
2,425,625 50,367 0
6,040,461 50,367 0
4,586,354 0 448,854
12,649,695 0 0
17,236,049 0 448,854
20,850,709 469,026 0
12,070,443 1,198,292 0
32,921,152 1,667,318 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
4,743,730 0 597,965
28,539,023 0 0
33,282,753 0 597,965
33,795,629 469,026 1,046,819
55,684,786 1,248,659 0
89,480,415 1,717,685 1,046,819

End of Part 1

( c ) Copyright 1998 FWN

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:47 - ID#372262)

LIHRY UP 1 3/8 to 31 1/4!! DROOY UP 9/32!! SLB UP 2 1/2!! GO CYCLICALS!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:51 - ID#238295)
no news is good news
The best moves usually come on no news. My guess is that the EU has informally decided upon levels of gold reserves and rules governing national CB sales that are bullish for POG. And the insiders, as usual, found out about this long before the public announcement.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:53 - ID#57232)
Japan deflation as cause of gold rise?
THE GOLDEN PROPHET: Could you post a web site, or some more info on your Japan post? As I recall the Nikkei went up last night, not down. Perhaps the Japanese are selling US treasuries faster than we can buy them or roll them over into our Federal debt. Could the Japanese people be buying US equities? It is human nature to buy more of what is going up, and sell what is going down.

All: Anyone have an intraday site for the US dollar? I saw nothing unusual following the Swiss Frank or the Deutsche Mark.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:54 - ID#251268)
Sure hope there is a bigger move then this on that kin of newa?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:58 - ID#251268)
my hunch
is its call option sellers trying to get the holders of near the money calls ( 310~~~ ) to sell into a rally so they can then be free to be in on the real bull?hmmmm ,I probably be thinking something else by the end of the day.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 13:59 - ID#266105)

As in the followup to the '87 stock crash, in asking
investors why they sold to trying to figure out the reasons
for the steep decline. A major earnings disappointment?
News of political turmoil? Interest rate hike or disturbing
economic statistic? No, the overwhelming majority reported
their reason for bailing out was the news of the decline

Maybe gold rises/is rising because its rising.
Fine by me.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 14:01 - ID#57232)
Gold rally
2BRO2B: I will be happy with any cause of a gold rally. Should have guessed when Kitco was down. My problem is that gold tends to have one day twitches that go away the next day --

(Tue Apr 21 1998 14:02 - ID#342282)
The man is still not there yet. Will let you know. Hope you got yours. Last was 7/16 that I saw. Good luck. Charlie

(Tue Apr 21 1998 14:04 - ID#251166)
Partial Repost: ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!)
From ANOTHER's post, Sunday Oct. 19, 1997, 13:41

The Deal:

We ( an oil state ) now value gold in trade far higher than currencies. We are willing to use gold as a partial payment for the future use of all oil and value it at $1,000 US. ( only a small amount of oil is in this deal ) And take a very small amount of gold out of circulation each month using its present commodity price.

If the world price can be maintained in the $300s it would be a small price for the west to pay for cheap oil and monetary stability.

The battle is now between CBs trying to keep gold in the $300s and the others buying it up.

In effect the governments are selling gold in any form to KEEP IT being used as REAL MONEY in oil deals! Some people know this, that is why they arent trading it,, they are buying it. Not all oil producers can take advantage of this deal as it is done where noone can see. And, they know not what has happened for gold does not change in price! But I tell you, gold has been moved and its price has changed in terms of oil! For the monthly amount to be taken off the market has changed from $10 in gold ( valued at $1,000 ) /per barrel to the current $30 in gold /per barrel still valued at $1,000! Much of this gold was in the form of deals in London to launder its movement.

Because of some Asians, these deals are no longer being rolled over as paper!

What is happening now is far, far larger than the interest of a few traders or mining companies. They will be stepped on!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 14:06 - ID#24864)
JTF a Currency page for you
Re: your 13:53 JTF, this is updated every 15 minutes or so.
I find it quite useful.
Nice to see all this green!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 14:06 - ID#201238)
A Goose

-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 3,614,836
50,367 0 2,475,992
50,367 0 6,090,828
-448,854 0 4,137,500
0 0 12,649,695
-448,854 0 16,787,195
469,026 0 21,319,735
1,198,292 0 13,268,735
1,667,318 0 34,588,470
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
-597,965 0 4,145,765
0 0 28,539,023
-597,965 0 32,684,788
-577,793 0 33,217,836
1,248,659 0 56,933,445
670,866 0 90,151,281


(Tue Apr 21 1998 14:08 - ID#251166)
Previous post was from ANOTHER, Sat. Oct. 18, 1997, 21:04

(Tue Apr 21 1998 14:10 - ID#251268)
I know what you mean but looking at he charts and forgeting its gold is encourageing,rock solid support great bottom formation breaking resistance,it looks to me like they can only keep their fingers in the dike for so long the higher the water rises the more the presure!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 14:11 - ID#266105)

Every twitch gives these penny adrs a spasmodic facial tic.
Around $325 the drooling begins...

(Tue Apr 21 1998 14:14 - ID#286230)

Tuesday, April 21, 1998

Barrick Gold posts higher profit in first quarter

TORONTO ( Reuters ) - Barrick Gold Corp. Canada's largest gold mining company,
Tuesday posted higher first-quarter earnings, reflecting higher production and declining
costs, despite weak international bullion price.
Revenue from gold sales was static at $302 million, unchanged from the comparablequarter
of the previous year. But net income rose to $75 million, or $0.20 per share, from $55 million,
or $0.15 share in the first quarter a year earlier.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 14:20 - ID#266105)
@yippee-I-owe-kay, eh

These adrs are all over the map, quick draw artists
jumping in and out, at volume, quicker'n lickety-split...

(Tue Apr 21 1998 14:27 - ID#57232)
jonesy: Thanks for the repost. I did not notice months ago that ANOTHER said that only some oil producers wanted supplemental 'cheap' gold to maintain production. At the time, I thought his comments were unrealistic. Now I am not so sure, because something like this has happened before. That is like the two-tier gold pricing scheme that was set up in the 60's or early 70's during the 'Gold War' according to Sutton. Eventually the secret gold sales got found out, and the offical price of gold began to rise. We are just repeating this period where the CB's and a few other Oil producer insiders now consider that gold is now worth much more than the official $ price of gold.

We should be on the lookout for another event that occured according to Sutton. Back in the late 60's or early 70's, either France of Italy needed a loan with gold as collateral, but they priced their gold at more than 2x the 'offical' rate. Apparently news of the deal leaked out, with the inevitable consequences to the price of gold, and to the US dollar.

Incidentally, I do not agree with ANOTHER that gold might go into the Stratosphere overnight. I think the gold price behavior in response to the antics of the 'fiat' currency crowd in the 60's and 70's is more likely. They even used futures at that time to 'control' the gold price.

Anyone have access to daily gold prices before 1975?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 14:29 - ID#432157)
THANKYOU---BART --fixing site

You have no idea how good this site is and it is very much appreciated

When it does not work I smoke like a steam engine


(Tue Apr 21 1998 14:32 - ID#57232)
Twitches up much preferred
jman: I agree! Given the doldrums we have been in during the last for weeks of our intermediate - term gold rally, this behavior is exciting. However, we need to be on the lookout for a short-term blowoff and correction. I am just looking for the right time to buy more.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 14:32 - ID#426220)

THANK YOU Mr. Polarbear:

DROOY Up 11%

XAU Up 6%... all with Gold Up only a few bucks!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 14:35 - ID#316193)
US Dollar Down 1.1% Against Swiss Franc (12:03 ET)

(Tue Apr 21 1998 14:41 - ID#289357)
BART - can you please arrange to shut down the site EVERY MORNING?

We likes the reward for our silence.


(Tue Apr 21 1998 14:44 - ID#345176)
@ Tolerant1, read Sherafin's 03:51 post

...and you may want to add "ard" after "cow".

(Tue Apr 21 1998 14:47 - ID#345176)
Why all this excitment?

Gold stocks up, IBM 5.4% up..... So what ??????

(Tue Apr 21 1998 14:51 - ID#344210)
John Disney @ your fixerupper in Cuba sounds YK2 interesting and
was also looking for a pullback to add to dd/ran/harm. Just went ahead and layered in.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 15:02 - ID#373403)
Fort Knox
Was there some news today about gold being missing?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 15:03 - ID#251166)
Re. Oil/Gold/$ > Oil/Gold/Euro
Okay, let's say the U.S. went off the gold standard in the early 70s and went onto an oil standard. Gold and oil rose until 1980. Gold peaked. But look at the oil charts. It was around then that oil dropped from $30/barrel to $19/barrel. My guess is that's around the time the real price of oil went from $30/barrel to 19 + X gold/barrel. Now, according to ANOTHER, oil is now [whatever] + XXX gold. The POG was quickly managed down by paper. The CBs want to keep the paper price down ( part A of a parallel market ) , while the real price of gold ( part B of parallel market ) is held for its oil value by major players. What we saw in '79-'80 -- POG soaring to "ridiculous" heights -- was just a glimpse ( quickly arrested/contained before it REALLY got out of hand ) of what's to come. Something like a quick gust blowing up a woman's skirt: Before anyone realized what had happened it was already all over.

Now, from ANOTHER, Sat. Nov. 1, 1997, 21:35 -- "The US$ could be effectively lowered against most of the leading currencies by slowly taking it off the oil standard! This could be done by introducing a new concept to the world: create a mechanism whereby a form of CB paper gold could be traded for oil as a side premium. So, instead of them [them = oil, we presume] taking physical gold off the market at it's now MAINTAINED commodity price, let them take "gray paper CB gold" priced at it's true value in US$ for oil."

What is the euro? A "mechanism whereby a form of CB paper gold could be traded for oil as a side premium"? ( Keep in mind, however, oil will take not paper, but physical. ) That makes the question of the euro's percentage of gold "backing" a HUGE question. Because it will set, or be set ( at least for the interim ) , in accordance to the price of oil -- an all-in-one package, not the cumbersome and constantly fluxuating $US + XXX gold/barrel, but a set percentage of currency + gold to oil. Then we'll look for fluxuation in the new reserve, the euro, as gauged by or against oil . . .

L. Long
(Tue Apr 21 1998 15:03 - ID#245113)
Sudden Increase in POG
Could it be from the bobble in the dow about noon? People getting ready to flee to safety?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 15:07 - ID#246224)
Uh! ooooh, what happen ... ?
All I remember was the lights going dim and then a 'THUD' .. I kept thinking, 'hey, someone better call an ambulance', but no one would listen to me. Ouch my aching head.

I just hate it when these computer rack upgrades 'crash' on ya! ( sligh grin thingie ) .

Well, up smartly, even without any news. Hope we have some good follow through for the next few days.

I might add this is very close on the heels of Another's cryptic comments about a 'new gold market' recently. I know, no critic will be impressed. But it wasn't to long ago that his posts coincided with downward action to the point that some here groaned when he posted. For the past three posts it has been to the up side.

Alright all you hungry doggies, time to fill your belly's before the lions arrive!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 15:10 - ID#289357)
CBS Marketwatch Industry Group share prices

South African ADRs:

(Tue Apr 21 1998 15:14 - ID#246224)
This is the gold standard again, only *enforced* by oil and physical gold in the market. Any currency would then need to be disciplined in relation to these two 'commodities'.

Bill Buckler
(Tue Apr 21 1998 15:20 - ID#256381)
Spot Gold
CBS has spot Gold ( GCJ8 - April ) at $311.60. That's up $3.70, through the downtrend lines and above the 40-week ( 200-day ) MA. As long as it stays above $310, that's that.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 15:32 - ID#286230)
More Barrick
Barrick Reports 33 Percent Rise in First Quarter Earnings and Cash Flow -- Substantial Decline in

Operating Costs -- Company on Track to Meet Targets

All Amounts in United States Dollars

Toronto, April 21, 1998 . . . Barrick Gold Corporation reported a 33% increase in earnings and

cash flow for the first quarter, primarily due to a significant reduction in cash operating costs. The

Company is continuing to benefit from its operating plan, which focuses on low-cost production

growth from its quality mines.

Net income for the first quarter increased to US$75 million, US20 cents per share, from US$55

million, US15 cents per share, in the year earlier period, on revenues of US$305 million compared

to US$306 million. Operating cash flow for the quarter also increased to US$135 million, US36

cents per share, compared with US$101 million, US27 cents per share, for the first quarter 1997.

Cash operating costs declined by 21% to US$154 per ounce, compared with US$196, primarily due

to better than anticipated grades in the quarter.

"Production and cash operating costs were excellent in the first quarter at all our mines," said John

K. Carrington, Chief Operating Officer. "This is an outstanding start to the year. First quarter cash

flow was in fact the second highest in Barrick's history, despite the current gold price environment."

Gold production rose to 769,282 ounces in the first quarter, compared with 712,368 in the year

earlier period. Production increased 23% at the Goldstrike Property to 564,023 ounces, with Meikle

contributing 280,704 ounces at a cash operating cost of US$72 per ounce.

"Meikle's exceptional performance combined with an expected strong second half of the year from

Betze-Post should lead to the Goldstrike Property achieving new records in terms of production

and cash costs," added Mr. Carrington.

In the first quarter, Barrick's hedge program generated US$79 million in additional revenue

reflecting a premium of US$105 per ounce for its gold sales, as the Company realized an average

price of US$400 an ounce, compared with an average spot price of US$295. With 10.1 million

ounces hedged at an average price of US$400 per ounce through the year 2000, Barrick is well

positioned in this market to maximize revenue and minimize gold price risk.

Barrick's next low-cost mine, the Pierina Mine, is expected to produce 750,000 ounces of gold

annually at a cash operating cost of US$50 per ounce. The project is within budget and on

schedule to begin leach production by the end of this year.

The operating plan calls for reducing cash costs to US$170 per ounce in 1998 ( 1997 -- US$182 )

with a further decline to US$150 per ounce in 1999, when production is projected to rise to 3.5

million ounces.

The Company's balance sheet is unrivaled in the gold industry with cash of US$439 million,

shareholders' equity of over US$3.4 billion and a debt-to-total capitalization of 0.13 to 1, at March

31, 1998. Barrick is the only gold mining company with an "A" credit rating.

Barrick's shares are traded under the ticker symbol ABX on the Toronto, Montreal, New York,

London and Swiss Stock Exchanges and the Paris Bourse.

The statements set forth above relating to the operating plan and its planned effects on Barricks

future financial results are "forward looking statements" as defined in the United States Private

Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The plan is based on facts and assumptions currently

known to Barrick and is subject to future risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to

differ materially from estimated results. Such risks and uncertainties are described in periodic

filings made by Barrick with the Ontario Securities Commission and the U.S. Securities and

Exchange Commission.

Barrick Gold Corporation

Royal Bank Plaza

South Tower, Suite 2700

Toronto, Ontario

(Tue Apr 21 1998 15:33 - ID#266110)
No accounting standards for US Govt
"In summary, significant financial systems weaknesses, problems with fundamental recordkeeping, incomplete documentation, and weak internal controls, including computer controls, PREVENT the government from accurately reporting a large portion of its assets, liablities, and cost"

But if you make a mistake on your 1040.... Boy is there hell to pay.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 15:40 - ID#57232)
Dollar down?
Leland: I guess I missed that on scanning what I follow daily. The key now is finding out why the dollar went down. Is Japan flooding the markets with treasuries? Or, is it because a decision was made regarding gold backing of the Euro? How about Russia? These questions are important, I think, because a Japan implosion could finish off this old bull equities market, and pull gold down with it. Unlikely, but remotely possible. Lets hope what ever the news is, it is not a financial meltdown. Market turmoil is bullish for gold, but not a crash.

Donald, any insight on why the US dollar is apparently dropping?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 15:42 - ID#20748)
Winds of change. Ted Arnold,
in his daily commentary to the ML Horde says some people have suggested that some bullion houses and their fund clients may be planning to mount a bear raid in the coming few weeks, which may cause some upward pressure on the POG. In an article in the Forbes magazine Peter Brimelow argues that gold is cheap, as if we did'nt know. Yet, the chart accompanying the article is well worth a look. Finally Bloomberg TV interview with Steven Leeb was aired several times today. He recommends NEM.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 15:52 - ID#57232)
Bloomberg Site
John C.: Thanks for the intraday exchange rate site!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 15:52 - ID#426220)
GOLD TRIVIA 1970-1996

In cleaning out my desk the other day I ran across some Gold Market Trivia - which you might find interesting.

Based upon gold bull markets from 1970 through January 1996, there have been 15 short-term rallies in gold bullion gold - with average gains about +29.5%. The average rally lasted only about 2.5 months. However, there were three distinct clusters:

1. An average gain of 17.9% within 2.4 months.

2. An average gain of 40.1% within 2.6 months.

3. An average gain of 32.8% within 2.7 months.

Assuming gold has indeed put in a bottom - and if history repeats exactly - which it usually never does - we are then looking for the following gold prices per the above clusters. For our initial point, we will use The Privateer's breakout price of US$295
In the first week of April. See chart at:

Gold Targets based on historical rallies:

Per cluster #1 -- $348 by approximately June 20, 1998

Per cluster #2 -- $413 by approximately June 26, 1998

Per cluster #3 -- $392 by approximately July 1, 1998

HEY Who Knows..? In any case it would make for a nice summer ( :- )
And, BTW, there is some kind of confirmation TODAY of a new Gold
Bull Emerging.

P.S. - Historically, the XAU rises 3 to 5 TIMES more than gold in a legitimate precious metals bull market and the South African golds do EVEN BETTER!!!!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 15:55 - ID#410198)
All,just in case some are looking at Palladium 1/2oz Russian Ballerina
Bid $286.50 Ask $296.50 if you can get them

(Tue Apr 21 1998 15:59 - ID#212197)
@jonesy (Re. Oil/Gold/$ > Oil/Gold/Euro) ID#251166
Your Date/Time Stamp: Tue Apr 21 1998 15:03
I agree with you.
That's why I think we should be able to approach a "best guess" what will happen on May2nd/3rd.
One helpful thing to draw conclusions is algebra, the other thing in this case is Italy.
If we assume that the upcoming ECU meeting will need to result into a published percentage of gold backing for the EURO, algebraic logic requires that they put a price tag on gold, I think in form of a guaranteed minimum price. The algebraic explanation will follow.

The question is: what price, if they need to? I think Italy, if accepted, will drive this price. Italy is financially the weakest candidate, in terms of public debts, but has a lot of gold ( i.e., a little over 3,000 tons ) . And we know they have priced their gold with $360.00 per ounce.
Now, the ECU meeting will not be able to reject Italy ( lets take that as a given ) , but they also will not want to further bring Italy into trouble by forcing Italy to accept a book value for their gold which is lower than what Italy accounts it for.

Therefore I conclude, the ECU meeting will declare the equivalent for $360 in EURO units as the new ECU guaranteed gold price. Does that make sense? Can we put part of our money on this conclusion?

Here the algebra, why a guaranteed percentage of gold backing doesn't go without a guaranteed price tag on gold:
Parameters to be known:
- Volume of issued EUROs EURO-vol ( EUROS )
- Volume of gold GOLD-vol ( in ounces )
- Price of one ounce gold GOLD-price ( in EUROS )
- Percentage of goldbacking Backing-%

Backing% = ( GOLD-vol * GOLD-price * 100 ) / EURO-vol

To get the percentage of goldbacking, the volume of gold, the number of issued EUROs, and the price for one ounce in EUROs must be known, defined factors.

Please correct me if my conclusions are wrong.

Thank you.

Alberich the Dwarf

(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:04 - ID#353211)
NA Palladium
It pains me to think that I thought of myself as being smart by
investing in NA Palladium. I continue to watch Palladium climb
while the company stock remains in the toilet. Oh well, I thought
it was a good play at the time. I'm holding on though ( although
I will not make any more purchases ) . Just a thought; if you buy
platinum coins vice gold, there are no confiscation worries
( just theft ones ) right?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:05 - ID#316193)
JTF - Re. Dollar Down?
Yesterday's NEW YORK POST column by John Crudele, points to
Japan's only choice. Japan must repatriate billions of Yen to
stimulate their own economy through public projects, similiar to
what the U.S. did in the 1930's. If this is NOT what happened
today, I'll be surprised.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:05 - ID#339274)
FWIW Within the next two weeks the gold price should bounce
off the 340 ceiling .Rangy, Drooy are poised to hit 3 and 4 3/4.
With a wild possibility of 7.Drooy is my preferred one.Happy trading

Aragorn III
(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:14 - ID#212323)
ALBERICH...That is correct, otherwise you have just a snapshot in time.
However, rather than view the result as "setting a price for gold", think of it instead as "defining the worth of the paper as correlated to gold."

Further, this 1% to 30% "gold backing" may simply be a snapshot in time of the reserves held by the back. Gold and international currencies used as reserves may continue to float, yielding ever-changing proportions of reserves in terms of value. And with fractional reserve lending practices by the entire banking industry, you've simply got yourself another fiat-type currency, albeit with some gold sitting in the central bank's vault. The redeemability for gold still isn't really there. Unless, of course they lock in a worth-value for each paper dollar as we discussed up front.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:15 - ID#25171)
The US dollar is down simply because of an unsustainable current account deficit.In addition to that , European central banks sold us$ heavily today ( is it to reduce their level of reserves denominated in $ or for another obscure reason , that I don't know )

The important point is that JAPAN is in much better shape that anyone might think.

Sure their banking system is collapsing but they don't care.Banking losses and share losses won't affect their industrial might in the long run and the long run is all that matters to them.There is a social consensus in JAPAN around industrial conglomerats, allowing them to charge steep prices on the domestic market to enable them to gain market shares abroad.US hedge funds and other speculators are so long $vs yen that you will be told that JAPAN is near collapse. The japanese are happy about that story as they don't have to reduce their trade surplus agressively anymore.THEY STILL ARE THE BIGGEST CREDITOR NATION OF THE G7.

When the US stock market collapses it will be another story as the US is built on a pile of foreign debt and the biggest current account deficit in the world. ( 200 bln $ a year now ) .

(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:18 - ID#345176)
@ General and Preacher on NA Palladium

The stock weakness may be attributed to sell orders from US investors not wanting to hold a stock which upon its sale the amount received is not directly in US dollars and another conversion required from $CA to $US.

Furthermore, the delisting did not help the stock for another reason: Many perceive it as riskier now than before.

If we do not see some strength shortly, we might as well kiss it goodby.

Preacher, what are your views on PLD.TO?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:20 - ID#258427)
Cyclist...I think that I LOVE YOU
as I am a RANGY AND DROOY holder ( big time ) ...
drooy up 12% today!!

go gold..

(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:24 - ID#267344)
What recourse do we have to make our central government accountable ( besides guns ) ? - c

(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:25 - ID#252150)
SF gaining on the $U.S.=Not good news
The Swiss economy has been in a funk for several years now & the only engine of growth they have is exports. The last time the SF started to strenghthen against the $U.S., the Swiss responded with news of possible AU sales-with devastating effect.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:29 - ID#252150)
Cyclist@340 very unlikely near term
The Australian producers are poised to sell big time @ 315-320.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:37 - ID#238295)
Today's nice rally again shows that Kaplan is wrong in his interpretation of the COT. People like ROR who advocated going short on this data made a bad mistake. The specs ( hedge funds ) have the smart money in this gold market for several years. The fact that they have covered is highly bullish. Hope that Kaplan gets it right one of these days.

Crystal Ball
(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:37 - ID#287367)
@Old Gold
Date: Tue Apr 21 1998 13:25
OLD GOLD ( ) ID#238295:

Crystal Ball: You ought to change your handle. Your crystal ball is looking mighty cloudy.

Be nice, George...I don't give you a hard time. I did predict a bounce in ABX to ~ 22 1/2 and XAU to ~ 88. Sold ABX puts for small but useful profit yesterday. The AOL puts bought yesterday are doing fine. ( AOL down 1 1/8 today ) I still think gold finds resistance in this area; the 200 day moving average will eventually turn gold back. Still looking for $5.00 silver.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:37 - ID#176200)
@cyclist@BillD.don't know about LOVE, but HEAVY LIKE will do!!! tnx

(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:39 - ID#31868)
Hmmmmmmmmmm, this site sent from a friend far more intelligent than me...

(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:44 - ID#26793)
Do we have an accurate spot gold and spot silver close price?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:45 - ID#316193)
Here's the BRIDGE NEWS Explanation for Today's Rise in Gold

(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:46 - ID#252432)
Michael Schaefer Newsletter
I received a mailing from this guy, boasting a phenom track record with his "Outstanding Investments in the Natural Resource Sector" newsletter. Can anyone give me any feedback as to his reputation and expertise?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:49 - ID#267344)
Hmmmm... are they anticipating a war?
Scheduled for consideration 4/22/98:

Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States with respect to tax limitations.


February 26, 1998

Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States with respect to tax limitations.

Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled ( two-thirds of each House concurring therein ) , That the following article is proposed as an amendment to the Constitution of the United States, which shall be valid to all intents and purposes as part of the Constitution when ratified by the legislatures of three-fourths of the several States within seven years after the date of its submission for ratification:


`SECTION 1. A bill to increase the internal revenue shall require for final adoption in each House the concurrence of two-thirds of the whole number of that House, unless that bill is determined at the time of adoption, in a reasonable manner prescribed by law, not to increase the internal revenue by more than a de minimis amount.

`SECTION 2. The Congress may waive the requirements of this article when a declaration of war is in effect. The Congress may also waive this article when the United States is engaged in military conflict which causes an imminent and serious threat to national security and is so declared by a joint resolution, adopted by a majority of the whole number of each House, which becomes law. Any increase in the internal revenue enacted under such a waiver shall be effective for not longer than two years.

`SECTION 3. Congress shall enforce and implement this article by appropriate legislation.'.

- c

(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:49 - ID#20135)
Thanks ARden.

Can you now post the gold warehouse stocks. I can't access that one either.

What did I do wrong on getting part 2. ??? It is usually there right after part 1. Then there is the gold warehouse numbers, but not last night.

Any ideas??

Thanks again.

Aragorn III
(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:50 - ID#212323)
223 -- I enjoyed your (much) earlier market tale posted Tolkien-style!
Also very much enjoyed the Latvijas Republika Bank and commemorative coin link. I saved it to my favorites list and will study the country's financial health as time allows. Nice to see the bank holds some gold, although lumped in with other convertible assets God knows if they have an ounce. On a personal note, over 60% of my own silver holdings is pre-Soviet Latvian coins from the 1920's. Beautiful stuff!! Especially the 5 pieci lati...they don't make 'em any finer than that, boys. Nice knowing they used real money back then. And at least their paper stuff today is suitable for framing.

I sure wouldn't mind getting my hands on one of the .9999 gold 1/25th oz commemorative coins. Pretty little thing, and so tiny...

Aragorn III
(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:54 - ID#212323)
Jeeeeeeeeeeeeze Tol', now I know what's kept you tied up lately...
I just checked out that link. I will have a summary report on your desk by morning...

(Tue Apr 21 1998 16:59 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.56

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:00 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .288

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:00 - ID#258129)
ALBERICH__A , 15:59 - Equation for EURO / Gold backing - Italy
It is known, that ECB will book Gold at market price or based on some calculated value [that everybody supposed to agree], related to market price. Italy, of course, has large Gold reserve, but its not the point and not the most important "part of equation". Most of European CBs have their book value of Gold much lower current market price. What is important, IMHO, is a very simple thing: all of them are interested now to have higher Gold market price. Higher the market price - less Gold to be transferred from national CB reserve to ECB account to cover a share of particular CB. Thats really bullish.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:05 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 49.16

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:07 - ID#353211)
I got my letter from MONEX yesterday promising that they are
working on being Y2K compliant and plan to meet the deadline
without disruption to customers. We shall see. It is encouraging
that they have acknowledged the problem and are working to
resolve it. Go Monex, go gold, go silver, go platinum.

And don't forget your guns, ammo, water and food storage supplies
( just in case you know ) .

That is all.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:15 - ID#316193)
Now We Have The Fed Talking About Raising Interest Rates -- This Ought to do it

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:17 - ID#26793)
If you are there: I am tinkering with the XAU/Spot moving average and get a reading of .284. Do you agree?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:18 - ID#411259)
..... YK2 Compliant .....

General -

I'm pleased to hear you got your response from Monex. I know we have been working more than a year on this already so, in many ways, we are way ahead of the curve. YK2 will cause no planes to fall on our clients.


(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:22 - ID#251268)
after all the great posts you have brought to this great forum the least I can do is give you my version of divergence in spot price.In futures trading the front month is also refered to as spot month
gc j8 was over

GC J8 ~~~~~~trading futures front month is also refered to as spot,acording to cbs market watch only 300 something contracts still trading ,last trading day is 4-28-98,so even though it is refered to
as spot there is still a week left ( not sure about restrictions of traders,I would asume longs already have declared intent and shorts must prove that they can deliver ( $$ ) or what? ) ~~~~~~~~~~anyway thats what I asume is the reason for divergence in___spot_ price ,it is reaaly 2 differnt things with same name ( Barts quotes vs Comex ) I think?


(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:26 - ID#57232)
Investment Advisor track records
Average Joe: Some of those newsletters sound really impressive about how successful they are, but in reality when you take all of the buy and sell calls they made annually -- it may not be that great. Of course they won't necessarily tell you that. One way you can separate the wheat from the chaff is to see how he is rated by Hulbert's Digest newsletter -- all Hulbert does is rank other investment advisors. Hulbert also has a book summarizing the performance of various advisors over 5 years or more. It's an eyeopener, and worth a look.

I'm not positive the name is Hulbert, but it is close. Hope this helps. I like your 'name', by the way, but you are no 'Average Joe' if you post on this web site.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:30 - ID#26793)
Thanks. I was looking for the number to use to calculate the D/G Ratio and Kitco was coming up blank. Finally settled on the 310.70 to do the work. Hope it was right.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:35 - ID#340302)
F*'s Evaluation of the GOLD market...
Gold turned in a fairly encouraging performance today on increased volume. It's move, although not especially significant percentage-wise, proved to be steady and uniform throughout the day.

The XAU also showed some improved strength on mounting volumes. However, many of the junior issues and a handful of senior issues had very unimpressive volumes. Thus, the investor participation was selective. One individual on this forum described the action today at one point as a "PANIC BUY." Believe me, today's action in no, way, shape or form resembled a panic buy. The hallmark of such a phenonomenon will be a high double digit increase in the price of gold along with a high double digit increase in the XAU. Moreover, the investment participation will be entirely non-selective as money will be thrown at any stock with the name gold attached to it. Until such developments occur, everything else is wishful thinking on the part of beleaguered goldbugs.

The DOW itself proved to be especially unimpressive. One single stock -- IBM -- accounted for 80% of the rise in the DOW. This, in spite of IBM's anemic earnings and particularly negative short-term outlook.

Why then did IBM rally?

Mutual fund stock indexing...once again, the major mutual funds targeted their practically non-existent cash margin into IBM today, recognizing that IBM is regarded as a bellwether of the entire DOW. Thus, it is always imperative to index funds into this lethargic old beast in order to inspire further investments from the public into the general DOW itself. Naturally, now that the investment public has been duped once again, then the same index mutual funds can now proceed to extract investment monies from IBM in order to re-index the next set of DOW earnings disappointments.

In any case, I digress...take away the IBM effect, and the DOW was essentially flat today. This augurs well for the XAU since it re-establishes the negative beta of gold stocks relative to general equities, i.e., when general equities are flat or falling, gold stocks should rise inversely.

The KITCO barometer indicates some increased hope for gold's performance.
Unfortunately, most posters expressed significant bewilderment as to why gold is heating up. They just don't "get it" yet. This fact augurs well for increased upside performance on gold's part since many goldbugs remain on the sidelines, unconvinced there is any substantive rationale for gold's upspike. It is important to note one important new phenomenon in the new and unique emerging gold bull: this time around, goldbug euphoria will likely develop very late in the overall PM game. I expect non-goldbug investors to push the price of gold up significantly long before goldbugs themselves become euphoric. In fact, most of today's action was certainly inspired by non-goldbug investment funds. As I have stated previously, most goldbugs will NOT be the major beneficiaries of the new gold bull since they are harbor the most negative, impatient, preconceived notions about gold's sustainable rise. Their attitudes are understandable given the inordinate length of the past gold bear. Unfortunately, they will be the first to jump ship...and they will be the last ones to re-enter in the final throes of fervent gold mania.

The Precious Metals Relativity Index indicates continued significant undervaluation of gold relative to the white metals. Palladium's continued excessive strength points to unusually high industrial demand ( the undersupply factor playing less and less a role ) , and is a clear portent of severe inflation and/or stagflation.

Finally, the outlook for GOLD is downgraded to EXTREMELY BULLISH as we await a host of interesting fundamental developments over the next two weeks.



(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:35 - ID#20135)
Bart would you be so kind as to fix the pm's again. They are stuck.


Bully Beef
(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:37 - ID#259282)
Gosh ...I tried all morning to get on to say gold would go up today but alas;^)
It was in vain. oH WELL oNE WEEK 2 DAYS OFF IN MY PREDICTION.pshit APPENS.wHAT WAS THE CLOSING ? I hates cap lock. Gidday . This is a good pace.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:37 - ID#201238)
comex stocks
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for April 21
Gold 644,441 + 4,743 troy ounces
Silver 89,257,535 - 893,746 troy ounces
Copper 109,910 - 296 short tons

Eligible gold stocks up 10,000 oz

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:38 - ID#26793)
I will look for some learned opinion on why the dollar is dropping. My own feeling is that Japan is dumping dollars to repatriate yen in order to stimulate their economy without printing them. They are concerned that they have been doing too much of that. Washington is not defending the dollar because U.S. auto manufacturers in particular can't compete in a strong dollar environment. Do you remember that the day before the 1987 crash Treas. Sec. Baker bad-mouthed the dollar for the same reasons?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:40 - ID#57232)
Fed to raise rates?
Leland: Interesting post. Perhaps AG et al are getting nervous about the market bubble. Don't want to repeat 1929? My guess they will try to talk down the markets instead of raising rates for several reasons, the first being that Japan might consider this 'economic war'. Of course, if Japan will be selling all of their US treasuries in the next few weeks it might be a moot point. Secondly, an election year is coming up fairly soon, so if they are going to raise rates they most do it within the next few months or risk tanking the economy just around the time of the y2k elections. Thirdly, I would have expected that the Fed would wait for the dollar to fall before raising rates, as they would not want to precipitate the 'coup de gras' in SEAsia or South America if the dollar went up.

Usually there aren't this many reasons for why raising rates are a bad idea, despite the fact that some tightening of credit is needed. My intuitive guess is also that it will take a sigificant interest rate increase to discourage all of those overstimulated baby boomers. Interesting times, IMHO.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:42 - ID#266110)
@clone your 16:24 --- I feel your pain !!
The founding fathers knew the importance of a citizenry that kept a government in check by virtue of the 2nd Amendment - Right to Bear Arms - and was able to defend the nation from foreign and domestic enemies. In my Constitution it doesn't say that there's... "the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, except for 'assault weapons' with bayonet lugs, flash suppressors, or pistol grips..."

No! It simply says..."the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, SHALL NOT BE INFRINGED !!

I always wonder what part of the 2nd Amendment the likes of Dianne Feinstein and Chucky Schumer don't understand. ( And...when they have sworn to uphold and defend the Constitution as they have, then they should be in jail for what they have perperated upon the Republic ) . Isn't it interesting that when it comes to the 1st and 5th Amendments, that there's no "Liberal" interpretation of the Constitution regarding abridging or infringing rights. But when it comes to that nasty one - the 2nd Amendment - its like Dracula being hit with a high noon sun.

NOTE: The Republic ( not democracy ) of the US has thrived for over 200 years with "assault" weapons in houses and within easy reach. Not until the advent of the Welfare Society did we begin to see the birth of an unbridled misuse of firearms. This is due to the incentive trap brought forth and presented to people who had nothing to loose and everything to gain by misusing weapons - those on the government dole, taking our tax dollars to subsidize and then to victimize us with crime.

The founding fathers knew that a citizenry, who owned land and was tied to a community, stood to loose a lot more by misusing weapons. Under circumstances where a real citizen commited a crime, then that citizen could be facing prison time or some form of punishment for the crime. This would not only be abhorrent to a real citizen, because of their standing in the community and ability to conduct business. But their livelihood, property, and family would be in jeopardy. All of this would be a natural restraint for the misuse of firearms. But the Welfare State took that check and balance away. Instead, we have given birth to people who are "victims" at the hands of society, who have no responsibility for anything. And when responsibility is written-off by liberal courts we have a situation of "sewing the wind and reapin the whirlwind". No wonder we have the kind of crime in the US.

If anyone questions my logic, then see if you can walk away scott-free the next time you fail to plug a parking meter. The full weight of the law will be thrown against you. And if you fail to pay your fines, then the police will arrest you and potentially jail you until you pay your fines.

When was the last time that the full weight of the law was thrown against the likes of a multiple murder criminal? Never, because they're a victim too. Just look at the Mendendez brothers who went back outside to their car to reload and shot their mother again because "she was making a 'sneaky' move" after she was mortally wounded ( that is: as she was sleeping on the couch without a weapon, I might add ) .

THE DEATH PENALTY AS A DETERRENT --- Anyone who says that the death penalty is not a deterrent is not looking at logic. If a murderer is put to death, then society is assured ( without any reservation whatsoever ) that the murderer will never commit another murder. Now, if that's not deterrence, then I don't know what is.

Hooligans who are wards of the state stand to gain much more by the use of firearms today. But the crazy part is that the real citizens are loosing even more of their rights as the likes of Sarah Brady strip the true Rights under the Constitution away from every citizen. If the trend continues, there may be a time when we WILL BE the Soviet Union. Then Kruschev will have obtained his victory.

And as he would say, press on: Ye Comrades in DC.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:42 - ID#251166)
Re. Currency/Oil/Gold continued -- re. Parallel Market Players

I'm not inclined to think that the determination of the percentage of gold "backing" of the euro will require settlement upon a price for gold. In fact, further thinking is leading me to the opposite conclusion -- that rather a percentage of euro gold "backing" just may be announced which is "pleasing to all" -- that is, all but goldbugs -- pleasing to those who would prolong the parallel market in gold. What we may see -- that is, what is posited as "the important question," but what really just buys time -- is the public announcement of a gold/currency RATIO ( notice oil is not publically included in the ratio ) . However, at the same time, or within this realm of days, figure there is being enacted a real gold/OIL/currency ratio. Yes, ratio -- one "enforced" as Allen says, "by oil and physical gold in the market." Allen continues: "Any currency would then need to be disciplined in relation to these two 'commodities'." You see, if the POG itself can remain unsettled even as its percentage of "backing" of the euro is established, CBs may, for a little longer at least, continue their parallel markets.

It's kind of the reverse of the equation: Currency + Xgold = oil. By saying Currency = ( Xgold/paper ) + paper, and that currency ( [Xgold/paper] + paper ) = oil, there is not required the immediate need to settle upon a value for either gold or oil. Paper is the slider, the variable by which the music may continue playing.

As ANOTHER said ( Sun. Oct. 5, 1997, 21:29 ) : "Oil is the only commodity in the world that was [is] large enough for gold to hide in." A corollary: For the time being -- that is, until gold is revalued -- oil is also large enough for THE EURO to hide within.

The announcement of ANY percentage of "backing" for the euro may just that, an announcement -- and probably low; the lower the announced "backing," the lower goes the paper price of gold, and therefore the longer CBs may scramble before they're caught. On the other hand, the emergence of the euro just may be viewed as a most poignant indicator -- hiding right in front of our faces -- of the desperation of the parallel market games players.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:45 - ID#20135)
Sorry Bart the pm's aren't stuck, the green light was on.


I always grab your somex posts. Would you please post the data for gold 4/20/98. I just grabbed your 4/21/98.

If it is not to much trouble please post the full report. For my files. Thanks.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:46 - ID#201238)
comex gold stocks for today

warehouse stocks: -- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Depository Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 Total
0 0 0 0 0 0
81,469 0 5,348 -5,348 0 76,121
29,058 10,091 0 10,091 0 39,149 Total
110,527 10,091 5,348 4,743 0 115,270
166,328 0 0 0 0 166,328
17,682 0 0 0 0 17,682 Total
184,010 0 0 0 0 184,010
232,755 0 0 0 0 232,755
112,406 0 0 0 0 112,406 Total
345,161 0 0 0 0 345,161
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 Total
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 Total
0 0 0 0 0 0
480,552 0 5,348 -5,348 0 475,204
159,146 10,091 0 10,091 0 169,237
639,698 10,091 5,348 4,743 0 644,441

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:48 - ID#26793)
Prediction of Bundesbank rate hike frightens dollar holders

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:48 - ID#57232)
1987 Crash
Donald: I don't remember details about what anyone said about the dollar in 1987. In those more innocent days I knew nothing about the markets - just Physics. I certainly do not look forward to the rapidly rising rates of that ominous time, precipitiated ( I believe ) by Japan dumping dollars.

Do you have any idea how many US dollars/treasuries are tied up in Yen carry trades, or gold-carry trades? Japan's US treasury sales may be only the tip of the dollar iceberg if the Yen-carry and the gold-carry trades unravel. Perhaps that is what the FED is worried about.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:50 - ID#201238)
comex gold stocks for yesterday for A. Goose

warehouse stocks: -- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Depository Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 Total
0 0 0 0 0 0
81,469 0 0 0 0 81,469
29,058 0 0 0 0 29,058 Total
110,527 0 0 0 0 110,527
186,033 0 19,705 -19,705 0 166,328
17,682 0 0 0 0 17,682 Total
203,715 0 19,705 -19,705 0 184,010
207,656 25,099 0 25,099 0 232,755
112,406 0 0 0 0 112,406 Total
320,062 25,099 0 25,099 0 345,161
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 Total
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 Total
0 0 0 0 0 0
475,158 25,099 0 19,705 5,394 480,552
159,146 0 0 0 0 159,146
634,304 25,099 0 19,705 5,394 639,698

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:52 - ID#20135)
arden you are being extremely kind and helpful. Could you please post yesterdays comex gold stocks 4/20/98.

My assumption is that what you just posted is for today 4/21/98.

Thanks again.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:54 - ID#20135)
ooooppps. My mistake, to much wine with lunch. Thanks Arden for yesterdays data. My data now at ease.


(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:55 - ID#57232)
Heading home early today (I hope)
RJ: Any comments about the floor traders? If this is it, they should be buying precious metals with both hands! Is this a temporary blip up, and the best time to buy gold on the next downturn? Comments about the Yen-dollar carry, and the Gold-dollar carry? Just how much of a dollar flood should we expect?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:56 - ID#307360)
ABC's of Gold Stock Analysis

Question - How may grams are in an ounce? ( I was raised on the metric system! )
I am looking at a company with 1 million tonnes ( I assume metric ) of reserves at an average grade of 9.98 g/t. How many ounces of proven reserves would this be?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:57 - ID#26793)
Quote from Money Forecast Letter
"We are hearing from about America, Asia and Europe agreeing to restore gold at the center of World currencies with the price likely to be raised high enough so that miners in South Africa and Russia can not only be hired but paid. We believe the price of gold will be raised back to $400, perhaps before this year is out"

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 21 1998 17:58 - ID#347447)
Your earlier post caught my eye: to wit -
"not trying to stop your style of posting but I'm a bible believeing person and if every time I contributed to this forum
I tied it to the bible ( and I probably could ) it would detract from whatever limited contribution I was trying to make,so word to the wise,I
will take your posts more seriously if you lay off a bit on your astrolgy angle a bit, GO GOLD !!!!!"

I must humbly confess that all I really have to bring to this forum in the way of predicting price movement and activity is astrology and technical analysis. I couyld mutter the same thing over and over, or analyze the market the same way you do ( and very nicely I might add ) but that would be boring. Perhaps you are confusing astrology with religion, in which case you are way off the mark. Astrology IS technical analysis, perhaps man's oldest form of it. Apparently the accurate calls I have made with it have been obscured by your unreasoning prejudice. That's ok with me. I have no desire to have you "take my posts more seriously." I couldn't care less. As for a "word to the wise," I would suggest you devle a bit more deeply into the origin and underlying meaning of your scriptures. You might be surprised with the connection to astrology. But you would really have to THINK. Wisdom eludes a closed mind, my friend. Perhaps you might enjoy a parrot as a pet.
As for your closing sentiment, "Go Gold," I am in hearty agreement with you there.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:01 - ID#26793)
News of gold fraud scheme

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:03 - ID#26395)
Technical Problem
I hope everyone took advantage of our downtime today to catch up on things that are running behind. I'm hoping that there may not be another opportunity like it again for a while.

To jman: The difference between spot and future is exactly ( by definition ) equal to the forward rate which is conveniently located at

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:03 - ID#234218)
@Mike Sheller re: Mon./Tues call.

I'd just like to say "GOOD CALL" on this one. You singled out the 20th or 21st ( mon/tues ) for a while now. Looks like a pretty good hit to me. At least better'n a kick in the butt from the toe of granpa's boot.

If we could just straighten you out on this "Will Rogers" confusion, you'd be a keeper. Just remember, he warnt related to Ginger or Roy.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:05 - ID#26669)
Aragorn III re Latvian coin pics et cetera
Well, if you ever get the chance to scan some of your coins into .jpg or .gif format you should post them! I really think that one can see better detail in a picture, particularly when it is enlargable. I don't think that for one of the 1/25 ounce coins you'd see much in real life. My wife has a 1/20 ounce Manx coin and it is difficult to see without a loupe.

IMHO the Baltic coins have been some of the least well known and most beautiful in history all the way back to the time they started forging degenerate versions of Phillip II statars 2000 years ago for the Viking trade. The Latvian Republic coins are just the most recent century of thousands of years of artistic metalwork since the La_Tene era.

But don't let me get started on ancient coins or the impatient day traders will get upset. Go Gold!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:07 - ID#347235)
KitcoDown/POG up?
We may have found the secret, let kito go down in morning?Worked today!!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:13 - ID#316193)
Japan's Largest Newspaper Speaks Plain English About Their Economy

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:18 - ID#250353)
L and L
Lock and Lode: great post, yours of 17:42. I'm afraid there's
a great gulf between us and those with a liberal "interpretation"
of the Constitution.

My lib-Democrat ( notice I didn't say Democratic ) Congressman
John LaFalce recently referred to our Constitutional Republic
as a Democracy. I kindly called his office to correct his
error. Six months later, I'm still waiting.

Go Gold.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:19 - ID#250353)
L and L
...waiting for a reply, that is.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:23 - ID#284246)
The Dow etc.
For what it's worth - here are some opinions I'd like to share.

I've been trying to assimilate information coming out of the USA pertaining to the economy - trying to read between the lines and get an overall impression of what the powers that be are preparing us for.

Information coming out of the USA related to the stock market generally seems to be RATIONAL - the opposite of what I would expect in the case of a euphoric and overheated situation.

I've heard "notables" calling for a modest increase in interest rates. I've heard ( don't laugh ) the market described by the media as being over-heated ( or words to that effect ) . Words like "bubble" have been used by at least one respected journal.

Whether this information is coming from independent sources or has been fine tuned by the propaganda factory I'll never know, but it makes me think that we should be ( or are being ) prepared for a slow puncture - commencing very soon.

If this happens might we see a slide in the greenback? If so this would undoubtably be bullish for gold.

My cynical side tells me that the powers that be have decided that they wish to take the heat out of the market and that perhaps an induced correction soon is far better than a rout later.

Just an opinion. Any comments?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:24 - ID#26793)
Dow in pre 1934 dollars
The all time high for the Dow in pre 1934 dollars was 631.11 set on March 20, 1998. We closed today at 611.00, down 20.11 or 3.17% from that high.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:25 - ID#26669)
Mike Sheller re astrological forcasting
Er, um... I still think it is just a tool you use to focus your own intuitive power on the separation of trends versus background noise. You've got to admit that you have a few years of study involved here to recognize some of the patterns, even if on a nonverbal level. Kind of like an old fisherman who knowns when the fish are hungry. IMHO

Gusto Oro
(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:28 - ID#430260)
Retired Soldier; are you a demolitions man? Maybe we can take out a few cyber relay circuits tomorrow and force the POG + POS up even more! I'll supply the explosives--my Mac has plenty of bombs! Ha, ha! --AG

PS--wow! My resources stocks made me proud not to be in the S & P for once.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:29 - ID#347235)
Gold funds up yesterday---the day before a big rally?????
I would appreciate some feedback on why the gold funds rallied on Monday with spot gold only up .30 and the xau down .28. I know how they are suppose to calculate net asset value, but something else i s happening-- as for the last coule of months the gold funds have signaled a coming big move. Any insight would be appeciated

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:34 - ID#347235)
@ Gusto Oro
Sorry I dont mess with explosive other than Claymores and Hand Grenades, and none of them in Recent years. Maybe we can encourage Bart to Shut down when the markets open til about noon so we can go buy gold instead of talking about it and the price will go up anyway. Ciao

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:35 - ID#26793)
I thought that Greenspan was worried about the market bubble in December, 1996, when he gave his "irrational exuberance" speech. If his plan was to temper the market it did not work. Now we are several thousand points higher. He/they know that a drop will be big trouble and now they are afraid to pull the trigger. He/they are likely to let it ride so that no one can be the target of finger pointing. Greenspan is safely on record of saying "I told you so" and his place in history is safe. I suspect that this is going to play out to the absolute worst possible conclusion.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:37 - ID#401349)
@ Mike Sheller
Mike, a belated thanks for the compliment from a few days back. I scan this site periodically so didn't catch it earlier. I do enjoy reading your posts. You are a wise and reasoned gentleman -- someone I could sit and chat with over a good cigar and a fine brandy -- and occasionally look up in perfect silence at the stars.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:47 - ID#307271)
in New Agedness I Weary

My Father has a word or two to say about the fruits of stargazing:

The Lord of Hosts is His name, because He is Lord of all the gold and all of the silver and everything else...

Isaiah 1:47
13 You are wearied in the multitude of your counsels; Let now the astrologers, the stargazers, And the monthly prognosticators Stand up and save you From what shall come upon you.
14 Behold, they shall be as stubble, The fire shall burn them; They shall not deliver themselves From the power of the flame; It shall not be a coal to be warmed by, Nor a fire to sit before!

Daniel 2:
27 Daniel answered in the presence of the king, and said, "The secret which the king has demanded, the wise men, the astrologers, the magicians, and the soothsayers cannot declare to the king.
28 "But there is a God in heaven who reveals secrets...

Gusto Oro
(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:50 - ID#430260)
RS--well I've been doing my part on the silver side in physical and resource stocks the last couple of weeks. Maybe for once I wasn't way early. --AG

Gusto Oro
(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:50 - ID#430260)
RT--well I've been doing my part on the silver side in physical and resource stocks the last couple of weeks. Maybe for once I wasn't way early. --AG

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:52 - ID#316193)
USAgold Has Second Update For Today's Gold Price

Gusto Oro
(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:52 - ID#430260)
See? I'm doing twice as much!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:52 - ID#270235)
Market top?
Stock market on the cover of Newsweek. Sure sign of a top
to this speculative orgy!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:54 - ID#284246)
Thanks, Donald for you comments.

I'm afraid you could be right. As far as finger pointing goes, here's a story which you may find amusing:

Last week I went to buy a bathroom cabinet down here in LOW-INFLATION Oz. Apparently the price had recently gone up about 8% or so. I said "What's this? I though there was no inflation" the sales assistant said "It all to do with the ASIANECONOMICRISIS" ( no typo ) . So I laughed and said "Hey, that's a good one. I'm going in to my boss tomorrow and ask for a raise. If he argues I'll just tell him it's all to do with the ASIANECONOMICRISIS!"

This sentiment goes all the way to the top.

If the S-H-one-T hits the fan in the US it will undoubtably be blamed on the Asians or the Europeans ( or both ) .

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:56 - ID#401460)
The ROTAT I O N into Gold!!!!

Does anyone know what Gold did today?

Don't you just love days like today?

CNBC "Top Funds Gold Funds & Natural Res. Funds".

Hut__A ( Gold funds ) one word ROTATION


(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:57 - ID#251268)
Thanks Bart for the info.
I'm not to concerned with it myself,I think it was Bill Buckler's 15.20 post where he mentioned spot price higher than yours and quoted Gc J8 price,Donald was trying to figure out some ratio,and that was my point April is spot month not spot price,anyway looks good to me,
apreciate this forum much.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:58 - ID#432157)
Gold Surprise
I am shocked that KITCO boys and girls PLUS USAGOLD do not know what caused the burst to-day.I don't know eathier HELP !!!!!!!!!!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 18:59 - ID#401460)
Hut__A (Gold funds & Spot Gold)

I did notice that the XAU started to move up today before Spot Gold - Interesting.

Someone was in the know, don't you think?

What ever one thinks of Another, one has to admit Gold moves after he speaks.


(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:03 - ID#341189)
@Donald, re XAU moving av.
I'm using weekly closes. As of 4/17, the 10 wk. average was .261. I don't see how your .284 can be correct.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:07 - ID#392328)


(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:12 - ID#26793)
I am using the average of the 1100 entries in the database. That must be skewering the result. Back to the drawing board.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:14 - ID#401460)
Gold @ $307 and falling

On Kitco Gold Chart
Oh well, Easy come easy go!


(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:15 - ID#347235)
High Rise NAV???

If the NAV is supposed to be calculated by dividing the outstanding shares into the value of the fund's holdings---HOW did the funds all gain on Monday with a nothing day in the movement of gold and stock prices????

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:20 - ID#347447)
spare me the scriptures. I have studied them for over 25 years. I gainsay you have no idea where half of them come fro or what they mean. I do not put myself or anything else over God. Why are you here at a gold forum? do you put Gold over your Lord himself? You worshipper of Mammon. I do not castigate you for that. For what reason do you persecute me? Let him who is without swin cast the first Kruggerand.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:22 - ID#286199)
The NAV can be increased by incoming cash from investors. The funds bought stocks today with that cash. Similarly, a fund can show a marked decline even though the stocks held by the fund stay even or decline only a bit. This is caused by net redemptions ( more cash leaving than coming in ) . Hope this helps.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:24 - ID#401460)

Supply and demand - I would think.
The enormous amount of money in the market will create these radical movements in all Gold markets as they rotate out of the Dow, Bonds etc.

To few shares and ounces to go around.

Example: CNBC today was talking about K-Tel
there is only 5-7 million shares with Only 1 million tradable - 7 million shares traded yesterday, each share was owned by 7 different people durring the day. The K-Tel stock has gone from 4 to 45+ in just a few days. The shorts are getting killed.

High Rise

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:25 - ID#347447)
while there IS an intuitive element to astrology, there is a highly technical aspect as well. Therefore, when I said, weeks ago, that when Mars conjuncted NYSE Venus around April 21/22, there may very well be a kick to gold, I was going by a verifiable scientific actuality, interpreted by my own proprietary research results - namely that NYSE Venus ( 5 degrees Taurus ) is the Gold Degree in the NYSE horoscope. No other astrolger has ever made that statement, while I have proved it over and over. That's why I'm here at kitco. Who else would believe my report? I know you have always shown an open mind in these matters, and I am pleased at that for both of us. As for those who feel they don't need any other clues to future market action than their own opinions, verily they have their own reward.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:26 - ID#238295)
HighRise: DBC has June gold up a dime

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:27 - ID#347447)
sorry - meant to say "let him who is without SIN." You are a sinner, are you not?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:28 - ID#401460)

What a Spike, double dribble WOW!!

Go Gold!!!!!!!


Fun isn't it.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:29 - ID#347447)
had to give up those luscious hand-rolled Costa Ricans, Dominicans, and Nicaraguans a couple years ago. But the Brandy sounds fine! To the Stars!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:29 - ID#220325)
APH for the silver update ( can you share your upside objective and time duration ) ?
Vronsky for the 13:08 on the Xau and other posts,keep them coming.
RJ for coming back, we missed you!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:30 - ID#26793)
@High Rise
Orders will be issued to redeploy the carriers from the Persian Gulf to Sydney Harbour until they get this fixed.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:32 - ID#347235)
Thanks High Rise----Thanks Speed

(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:33 - ID#401460)
Old Gold

The June Price, after NY market is closed, does not move much or not at all.

Kitco Spot


(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:34 - ID#251166)
@ HighRise
Ya gotta love that spike down/up. FYI, check out the recent stillettos on the palladium chart. Look similar? And we all know what palladium's been doing lately, yes?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:34 - ID#401460)



(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:35 - ID#347235)
I second Mike Shellers opinion you know not of what you are speaking,
I am not much on astrology myself but I wont disrespect a man who studies in the pursuit of knowledge, you may read some Torah and Talmud as well to educate yourself. Gold is up nicely and Mike predicted it so FOAD.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:36 - ID#26793)
@High Rise
See. It worked.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:39 - ID#251166)
@ zeke
Brother, your Father is my Father. Your King and mine are the same. But we need to talk -- off this forum. Please respond.

Dean Jones

(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:39 - ID#401460)
What a Spike

Either, Some one got a great deal; or they tried to open Gold at an old price and it didn't hold.

Any thoughts/


(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:50 - ID#421269)
@ Highrise

How about Australian mines. TURKEYS!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:51 - ID#286279)
It's hot here, fine afternoon for a cool beet salad. Honey thunk it up. Pieces of boiled red beets & *GOLD* beets plus some cut-up sweet golden oranges plus some bits of candied ginger, that's all. Yum!

Your last has become a top flavorite in this house. Maybe late some slow evening you'll re-post the black bean recipe that goes with it? Thanks!

:- )

(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:52 - ID#238295)
Comex gold volume was a modest 35,000 contracts today as POG climbed $3.00, according to Kaplan. Great news because it suggests that POG cna post the double digit gain anticipated by Farfel if volume really takes off.

JTF: Oldman is indeed one terrific stock markrt forecaster.But his long run outlook differs greatly from yours. He is calling for a final run this summer to be followed by the mother of all bears.

Andy Smith; You hurtin baby? You will be in AGONY before this golden bull runs its course. We know you are lurking and possibly posting as well.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 19:57 - ID#26793)
Merrill Lynch downgrades Anglo

(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:01 - ID#26793)
Treasury official says Asia is still a problem.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:01 - ID#347447)
anyone who waxes poetic over beets NEEDS this black bean recipe real fast - enjoy!

Go to a Latin market and get small "sweet chilies." NOT HOT. They are little, roundish, green and red and yellow.
In a big tall soup pot saute about ten chopped up sweet chilies along with 1 big chopped onion, and a chopped green pepper in about 2-4 Tbs Olive Oil. Add 1/2 tsp ground cumin, and 1 tsp mild curry powder ( Jamaican is nice ) When onions are just about golden ( the gold part justifies this recipe on Kitco ) add about a cupful of roughly chopped fresh coriander ( "Chinese Parsley" )
Stir a few more minutes, then add about 2 quarts of water, and about a little less than a pound of dried black turtle reans. Add a couple Tbs salt, and a package of smoked pork neckbones ( get it in any supermarket ) ( ( should be 7 - 10 chunks ) ) .
Bring to a boil, cut back to a simmer and cover. Cook at medium covered simmer until beans are done, and liquid is at a thick consistency for ladling over rice ( keep an eye on the thickness, adding water when needed ) . ( probably 1 - 1/2 hours ) Add a nice bunch of fresh washed coriander in the last 10 minutes. Make a sh*tload of white rice to taste, and serve with plenty of cold beer and meat or fish of your choice. Ainemah!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:02 - ID#286230)
'29 Inflation
Anywone know what the inflation rate was before the 1929 crash?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:06 - ID#217338)
JT8D have not seen you around lately, you still on?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:10 - ID#401460)
Kitco Chart Revised

Spike has been removed. No one got a better deal.


(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:10 - ID#26793)
Unemployment was 3.1% in 1929. In January, 1929, wages were 5% above 1925. Commodity prices fell almost 5% from 1926 to 1929, rising 5% in farm products and falling almost 8% in other commodities. ( from: "The World in Depression" Charles Kindleberger

(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:12 - ID#256326)
I can't give exact US CPI numbers at this moment, but inflation momentum peaked in 1919-20, at the end of the war to end all wars ( ! ) , with a lower subsidiary peak in 1925. This was also true of most commodity prices and real estate overall, although the Florida land boom and upscale residential real estate peaked later.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:12 - ID#286279)
Thanks Mike!

We are lucky. Recently each Saturday a Thai farmer from N Calif delivers to restaurants along the way until he gets to our farmer's market with fresh lemon grass. :-D

(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:16 - ID#398105)
WHO is Andy Smith.............

When he was circumcised, did they throw away the wrong bit ?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:17 - ID#261269)
Where's TED...haven't heard from his all day , and...
he missed all the action in his dog ABX today...arf..arf..arf..

(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:18 - ID#256326)
Nice call on gold/Venus brother! Also beet recipe duly forwarded to kitchen. Wife's only interest in Kitco is your recipes. ) ( In all honesty it's one of my main interests here...;- ) ) ) )

Mr. Mick
(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:20 - ID#345321)
Morgan Stanley downgrades Reuters.........
Tuesday April 21, 7:49 pm Eastern Time

RESEARCH ALERT- Morgan Stanley cuts Reuters

LONDON, April 21 ( Reuters ) - Morgan Stanley said on Tuesday it had cut its rating on shares in
global news and information company Reuters Group Plc ( quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: RTR.L ) to
``neutral'' from ``outperform.''

The investment bank said Reuters stock had experienced a strong run since it last upgraded the
shares at 538p and suggested it now may be a good time to take profits.

The downgrade follows Reuters' first quarter revenue report on Monday, in which the company
reported a two percent rise in revenues to 715 million pounds, or $1.195 billion, in its first three
months of the year after the inmpact of sterling's strength.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:22 - ID#426220)

Already the Nikkei is down 130 points. The Domino Tsunami will eventually his North-Americqan shores. Prepare your GOLD LIFE-RAFTS before the deluge.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:22 - ID#26793)
Citibank sees no apocalypse for Japan; yen will firm to 120 per dollar

Mr. Mick
(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:23 - ID#345321)
Palladium news..................
Tuesday April 21, 6:30 pm Eastern Time

Palladium rallies to curb demand - German sources

HAMBURG, April 21 ( Reuters ) - Renewed peaks in the palladium price have accelerated the
search for substitutes among consumers unprepared to pay sky-high prices, German trade and
industry sources said on Tuesday.

Prices were unlikely to ease now that evidence was hardening that Russia, the world market's key
supplier, might not start exporting the metal before June, they said.

The metal reached a new 18-year high at the London fix on Tuesday at $334 per ounce, a repeat of
last week's rallies.

``Prices will not fall as long as there are no shipments out of Russia, because of physical tightness,''
said a senior trade source at Hanau-based processor the Heraeus group.

``I believe the price rallies are damaging for the raw material...the car industry for example has plans
to go back to traditional platinum/rhodium catalysts ( rather than palladium/rhodium or
palladium-only ) .''

He put one-month lease rates at 135 percent.

The trader said car industry consumers might have swallowed price increases believed to be
temporary in the past, but they could not afford the risk of shipment defaults.

Long-term research would therefore focus on alternative materials.

That was also the case in computer industry applications, which might in future absorb more nickel.

Russia's bureaucracy was blocking palladium shipments against a background of general political
uncertainty, traders in Germany said.

Even if nominated prime minister Sergei Kiriyenko was finally elected by the parliament, it could take
weeks if not months before trade partners resumed normal operational procedures for palladium

Unconfirmed reports that Russia's natural palladium resources were running out and that stockpiles
had been depleted for good were also frightening consumers.

``Russian shipments need to be seen to be believed,'' said Wolfgang Wrzesniok, metals analyst at
Dresdner Kleinwort Benson bank in Frankfurt.

``In the meantime, European consumers will follow the North American lead and start to explore
new price hedge opportunities as well as alternative materials.''

A typical car maker's raw material bills would rise by tens of millions of marks in a calculation based
on steady palladium consumption at the current price scenario of $335/ounce compared with the
$200 or less seen last year.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:26 - ID#316193)
Vronsky, Imagine Living in Japan and Reading Your Newspapers Like This One

(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:28 - ID#26793)
Must read if you ever wire money to Mexico

(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:31 - ID#284255)
@ JTF - Old Gold
Oldman is definately one of the sages of Avid and the S&P.
His words of wisdom are held in high esteem.
But he is one of a few of the sages.
Topxprt is another one with equal standing.
They both respect each other greatly.

This is why I posted both of their comments.

Oldman is calling for a top about now with a falling market into May then the mother of all rallies into the summer, followed by the real bear in the fall.

Topxprt on the other hand is calling for the final top to occur shortly followed by the real bear with no future rally's and no future new highs.

Two experts with two different opinions.
But both of them are calling for the final top in the S&P to occur within the next few months.

Is this is to come about then the next few months is all that's left of the 'window of opportunity' to accumulate gold in.

Will this become the last 'window of opportunity'???

(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:34 - ID#251166)
@ Mr. Mick
We ought to give credit to Reuters the news service for the temerity to report the bad news on Reuters the publicly traded stock. . . .

(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:36 - ID#340302)
The psychological rationale for a stock market debacle in Spring
Essentially, I continue to feel that, despite prognostications from notable, impressive minds like Oldman, the N. American stock market MUST tank in Spring ( probably May ) rather than Fall.

Aside from the various fundamental and technical reasons discussed ad nauseum on this forum, there is a tremendous psychological factor involved and I would imagine it is already under discussion in the Clinton administration. If it is not under discussion, then it should be!

If the bubble must be burst, then for the psychological well-being of the many millions of exposed small investors, it will be better if we are moving into a time period of renewal and rebirth ( Spring ) as opposed to a time period of decay and disintegration ( Fall ) .

Without meaning to sound morbid, I would theorize that there would be a tremendous differential between the number of Spring suicides and depression attacks versus Fall human tragedies..

When a person suffers a huge financial hit, then at least during Spring, you can walk outside and feel the warm invigorating sun. The sounds of children playing. The sweet chirping of birds everywhere. The world always seems a little brighter. It is much easier to appreciate the non-financial, human positives in life.

On the other hand, Fall is usually a depressing season by its very nature. All surrounding nature is either dead or dying. Financial losses suffered at this time of year would feel especially devastating.



(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:36 - ID#426220)

Ref: Citibank sees no apocalypse for Japan; yen will firm to 120 per dollar ) :

Citibank's economist, David Simon has his head too full of SOBA NOODLES & SAKE to know what the hell is going on in Japan. Either THAT, or he is standing on his head looking at the charts representing the Nippon economic conditions.

Six months from know he probably will be looking for good paying job... selling gold bullion or gold stocks somewhere - as Citibank will put the blame on him for such a bizaar prediction in light of all the facts!

HEY,SIMON, I suggest you start looking for a position NOW! I UNDERSTAND Fidelity's Precious Metals Fund is hiring at entry-levels.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:48 - ID#286230)
Donald__A; Aurophile
Published figures indicate that inflation is negligible at this point. Is this consistent with what was happening in 1929. Sorry to focus on this issue --just looking for similarities.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:52 - ID#26669)
farfel re psychological investment factors
The average American watches 1500 hours per year of T.V. They're brain dead, thus having no psychological factors to speak of, but will follow whoever buys the ads, kind of a like a frog's spinal cord response. IMHO :^ )

(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:55 - ID#26669)
Farfel, that is as in pithed frog in a biology lab
and not a defamatory word for the French. I don't know how much T.V. the French public watches. :^ ) Go Gold!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 20:58 - ID#347235)
@ Mike Sheller
Hope you dont mind I copied your bean recipe too, sounds good to me and my wife and I like beans too.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:03 - ID#333126)
even S'pore Biztimes agrees with the Economist "bubble" story

only for today folks. they change their stories every day.

hmmm....... where's that tequila? tolerant1: you got any spare?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:05 - ID#200235)
I cant wait until this time tomorrow when all the stock anal -ists take credit for predicting the return of the gold bull. I believe the fix is in and there will be a rush of Mutual fund buying into precious metals,and a virtual stampeed by short sellers of PM's, to cover their positions.

There should also be a run on supply of physical which should push POG well beyond 200 day moving average.

Special thanks to Vronsky . Bought small amt of RANGY at l.25 on Monday and that is lst money I have made in PM's in 4 years, all the time being l00% invested in gold stocks and funds.

Tomorrow should be best day for PM's in a long , long time.


(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:09 - ID#340459)
Interesting Article on Market Top ?
As markets continue to surge on positive earnings,
some are looking out for the top

Here's how to tell when the market's about to hit the

by Michael Brush

Call it a hat trick! All three of the major market
indexes set records Tuesday, as investors continue to
be cheered by positive earnings reports. The Dow,
Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indexes each closed at new

"Things look pretty positive," says Chuck Hill, who
analyzes earnings numbers for First Call. With about
half of the S&P 500 companies reporting so far this
quarter, firms are beating estimates by an average of
2.8% -- which is about normal. No sign yet, in other
words, of the downside risk from Asia. "It is business
as usual," says Hill. "We are getting the usual
positive bias to what were severely reduced numbers."

That kind of good news, along with plausible [reasons]
why current high valuations are not so scary, kept
investor enthusiasm high. It also had some seasoned
observers wondering whether we are finally reaching a
market top. Maybe not, as long as interest rates
continue to decline and the money keeps flowing in to
support this liquidity-driven market, many experts

But the ceiling is looming out there somewhere. We
polled some top Wall Street insiders and experts to
find the common signs that things are finally topping
out. Here's what to look for:

* Market psychology indicators. One popular indicator
in this group is a measure of bullishness among
investment newsletter writers, which is put together
by Investor's Intelligence, another newsletter. If the
newsletter writers are too bullish, that's a bad sign
because it suggests that their customers are fully
invested and there is little money left on the
sidelines to push stocks higher. Where do they stand
now? At the high end of the neutral zone with a 69%
bullish rating on a scale in which anything above 75%
is extreme optimism.

* Insider sentiment. Another indicator is insider
selling, which continues to nudge upwards. "There is
clearly no cry from insiders that the extraordinary
first quarter for stocks will be repeated," says
Richard Cuneo, at Vickers Weekly Insider. "Volatility
could very likely be part of the picture over the
short term."

* Investor overconfidence. John Manley, an equity
strategist at Salomon Smith Barney, says watch out for
an attitude shift taking people from a belief that the
market will go up, to one that says the market must go

* Excesses in spending. Manley recalls one thing that
tipped him off to a market top in the early 1970s was
the rapidly rising price of top-shelf wines. So keep
an eye on that wine list, even if you don't drink.
Also watch sales of things like expensive luxury cars
and homes, he says, "or anything else that shows signs
of hubris on Wall Street."

* Excesses in the real estate market. Overconfidence
at market tops often spills over into the real estate
market, especially the high end and commercial
sectors. "We potentially have a top at the high end of
the real estate market in the middle west," says James
Paulsen, the chief investment officer at Norwest
Investment Management. "But the commercial market has
been well controlled."

* Small company fervor. Piqued interest in small cap
stocks often signals the end of a bull run. Today,
interest in small cap stocks is picking up, but there
is still an overall bias towards large cap stocks.

* Booming investment industry. A common benchmark here
is the price of a seat on the New York Stock Exchange.
One sold on March 9 for $2 million, which was a
record. Another sold on April 3 for $1.6 million.
Also, watch things like the number of securities
analysts entering the field, the number of new
certified financial analysts, and the number of mutual
funds -- all of which are at record levels now,
according to Paulsen.

* Too much public interest in the stock markets. One
measure of this is the number of investment clubs,
also at an all time high, says Paulsen. Also, be
suspicious when you see a lot of cover stories on the
markets in non-business publications. And watch your
head when you start getting stock tips from cab
drivers or the person bagging your groceries.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:12 - ID#316193)
Can Anyone Supply The Math -- US Dollar to XAU?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:14 - ID#426220)


Citibank and "Economist" David Simon are full of SOBA NOODLES & SAKE ( :- ) )

(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:21 - ID#256326)
The real similarities in inflation peaks were 1920 and 1974. True some prices went higher later than at both those momentum peaks, but many did not. The trend was down from there, but the stock market crashes did not end until later, 1932 for the prior period and 1982 for the latter. Interest rates declined but did not reach bottom until 1942-46 for the former and 1992-98 for the latter. Currently both prices/inflation and stocks are at approximately the 1946 level. Hence we can expect a firming of prices ( gold, CPI, etc ) and a gentle rise for several decades until
we get irrational exuberance in "stuff" once more.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:24 - ID#401237)
Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX.TO - news)
I just saw this, I don't think CNBC or others mentioned it. Sorry if already posted, but it answers some earlier questions why the XAU moved before the PM - interesting that people went out and bought the PM on the news?

Tuesday April 21, 8:59 pm Eastern Time

Barrick shares climb on first-quarter profit

TORONTO, April 21 ( Reuters ) - Shares in Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX.TO - news ) rose C$1.05 to C$31.70, or almost four percent, in heavy trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Tuesday after the giant gold producer reported another surprising quarterly profit.

Barrick said it earned $75 million, or $0.20 a share, in the first quarter ended March 31, 1998, compared with a profit of $55 million, or $0.15 a share, in the same period last year.

The first-quarter profit materialized despite continued weak gold bullion prices.


(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:25 - ID#286199)
Golden Cheesehead
This may explain the poor showing by Vengold ( VENGF ) today:

Dow Jones Newswires -- April 21, 1998
Vengold Revises Share Issue Price To C$1.75 From C$1.83/Shr

VANCOUVER ( Dow Jones ) --Vengold Inc. ( VENGF ) said it filed a final short form prospectus for its proposed share offering, and has lowered the purchase price for the shares to C$1.75 each from C$1.83.

As reported, Vengold had originally entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters led by Midland Walwyn Capital Inc. to sell 22.5 million common shares at C$1.83 each, for proceeds of C$41.2 million.

The company also said the underwriters have agreed to reduce the commission to 4% from 4.5%. It said closing is expected on about April 23. At last report, Vengold had about 94.4 million shares outstanding.
Vengold's principal asset is a 10.3% interest in the Lihir gold mine.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:27 - ID#426220)

Gold is UP 14Yen/gram in the capital of the Land of the Setting Sun.
It will be necessary to delete the space before the word "-eagle"
before pasting the URL to your Internet locator.

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:30 - ID#209265)
Mike Sheller, Old Gold & report on conference
Mike- I'm interested in what you have to say. Astrology is almost scary- the way things that ought not to be able to interact with people, do! The lunar effect is kind of amazing, but there is a reasonable explanation for that- the 10 Hz EMF wave. I wonder what the HAARP project will do to that?!

Do you have any ideas concerning what explains your area of interest? Also, when I was a young whippersnapper I read a book explaining that there does seem to be biblical discriptions of the genuine influence of "stars" on human affairs, or some sort of correlation, but of course, idolatry based on this was forbidden. What do you know about that?

Also, do the Pleiades, which are mentioned in the Book of Job, and were very important to North American Indians, have any role, in your opinion?

If this is too detailed for posting in the group you can e-mail me at:

Old Gold- Re: your comments on Oldman's prediction of a summer spike before a crash. I was at the annual Energy & Resources Investment conference on the 19th & 20th. James Dines was speaking, and he said that it wouldn't surprise him to see a spike-shaped blowoff in the Dow, with a rapid ( a few days or weeks ) rise to over 10,000 with a sudden drop immediately after.

When he was asked what would be the event that is most likely to trigger a bear market in the Dow, he said that the most likely would be collapse of the Japanese banking system.

Ian McAvity said something similar- he said that a Nikkei reading of 14,000 will trigger a reduction in the reserves of most Japanese banks ( they're allowed to include stocks in their reserves over there ) that will put them below minimum requirements, and trigger a wave of asset selling to raise reserves that will trigger economic chaos in both Japan the US. He said if the Nikkei starts to brush 14,000, or if China announces a devaluation- sell all your equities and duck. Get into cash and precious metals.

Dines replied that he would be very surprised if China were to announce a devaluation. He said they know that a financial armageddon will result if they do that. In fact just today Strategic Forecasting reported that the Chinese appear to be trying to bluff their way out of their structural problems- they have announced plans to spend on infrastructure to maintain 8% expansion of the economy, and reiterated their stand against devaluation. This would of course cause local inflation and nuke their exporting ability- the two are just not compatible. They seem to be trying to build confidence in their ability to maintain the value of their currency.

Some great recommendations on stocks. Adrian Day was terrific- what a level-headed guy.

John B__A
(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:37 - ID#211105)
Simon did state that we would see the yen at 135-138 first. After that he may have a point - big bull markets start at hugh economic troughs.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:39 - ID#316200)
Palladium Chart
Bart, Time to rescale the chart, it's going off the graph.

Thanks for everything here.

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:39 - ID#209265)
Question re: price anomalies
A very strange thing. I have been looking into a company called Golden Knight Resources which is listed on NASDAQ ( GKRVF ) the TSE ( GKR ) the VSE ( GKR ) and the Montreal Exchange ( GKR ) .

It closed at US$1-5/32 on the NASDAQ, which is C$1.64, and that is what it closed at on the TSE ( $1.64 ) . On the MSE, however, it closed at C$1.55 and on the VSE it closed at C$2.40!

What's going on here? Would there really be an opportunity for arbitrage? Did it go higher in Vancouver because of news after the eatern exchanges closed?

Might be a chance to get in on something fast, depending on how many orders are in place for the opening of trading tomorrow.


John B__A
(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:39 - ID#211105)
Make that huge economic troughs. thanks,

(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:45 - ID#431263)
Thanks for the info! Knew today's loss of a whole 3/64ths had to have something to do with this most recent stock offering--now we know! Nothing major IMHO! Matter of fact--it only makes VENGOLD shares that much more attractive as LIHIR surged another 4% today! STILL BAH ( bullish as hell ) ! Big news IMHO was PDG's 41.3 INVESTMENT in Vengold shares last Friday! THAT speaks volumes about where Placer thinks Vengold/Lihir is going! And it ain't lower! The slowest corporate takeover in mining history continues full speed ahead! Noticed also that Kinross ( KGC ) is buying out Amax ( AU ) and will now rank as NA's 5th largest miner @ 1.2 million ozs./yr. MORE MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS ON THE WAY! ONLY THE STRONGEST WILL SURVIVE! LIHIR/VENGOLD WILL DEFINITELY BE ONE OF 'EM!

Interesting Times
(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:47 - ID#423355)
farfel (Fall / Spring stock collapse)
"If the bubble must be burst, then for the psychological well-being of the many millions of exposed small investors, it will be better if we are moving into a time period of renewal and rebirth ( Spring ) as opposed to a time period of decay and disintegration ( Fall ) ."

...make that "decay, disintegration and elections..."


(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:50 - ID#426220)

"nuff" said

(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:50 - ID#24864)
Thor@17:57 Gold Conversions
Dear Thor,
One troy ounce is slightly more than 31.1 grams.
One million tonnes at 9.98 grams/tonne is about 320,864 troy ounces or 9.98 tonnes and at US$310 is worth around US$100 million.
Kind Regards John_C@Sunny_Brisbane

(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:54 - ID#256326)
Beets and beans do have several letters in common. My wife IS a beet freak so I passed on the recipe saying "this beet's for you" and she gave this look. Said she, "one or the other of you has had one martini too many."

(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:55 - ID#267344)
As an amateur investor with a high percentage in gold and silver, I would like to say...
The whole idea of palladium being worth more than gold is a total disgrace. We should all be ashamed of ourselves. - c

(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:55 - ID#39828)
Make that 8.2% Up 19c on 1.03mil @12.00am. This baby just
blasted through the roof and is setting course for a slingshot
off Jupiter to hit a new galaxy soon.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:57 - ID#256326)
What about rhodium and cobalt?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:57 - ID#340302)
DOUBLE DIGIT INFLATION IS ALREADY HERE...'s just hidden in the form of asset inflation in both stocks and real estate.

Again, it is important for those who wish to make exact comparisons to either 1929 or the late Seventies or any other economically troubled time to realize that we are already well-ensconced in a grave economic scenario today. Moreover, it is equally important for economic comparison advocates to understand that an exact replication of historical conditions leading to economic difficulties is simply inconceivable. This time around, the problems may be very similar but the instigating triggers are certain to be different.

You may ask, why does tremendous asset inflation not manifest itself in the government's latest CPI or PPI figures?

The answer: there has not been a single compelling impetus to drive this tremendous asset appreciation into consumption-ready dollars.

Moreover, the government has a vested interest in continually understating these figures in order to, on the one hand, preclude financial asset debacles and on the other, to understate obligatory government payments indexed against the CPI.

What will trigger this inflationary and/or stagflationary effect?

Obviously, a market debacle is the most significant threat. However, any single commodity ( such as oil or clean, safe water, etc. ) which should suddenly experience overheated and sudden demand could cause a dramatic overnight change in the inflation scenario. Economic conditions can spin on a dime and in the precarious circumstances of an escalating financial bubble, these new conditions are bound to appear with little or no warning.



(Tue Apr 21 1998 21:58 - ID#186147)
Too high????
The stock market is overvalued, and has been for some time. But it has been more overvalued in the past, most recently just prior to the '87 "High speed readjustment": ) "Overvalued" is in the eyes of the beholder. What seems overvalued to me may be a bargain to you. It doesnt really matter what either of us thinks. What matters is what the boyz who have the power to affect the situation think. Since July '97, the Fed's valuation model has been public knowledge, but no one much talks about it. You can read it on Ed Yardeni's site.

The Grteenspan/Rubin/Klinton axis is now on the horns of a dilemma. At these levels, there can be no gradual readjustment. A real bear will cause a radical adjustment in the lives of some of the most powerful people who ever lived. Imfamy, prison, or worse awaits those who must ultimately take the blame for the total destruction of the financial well-being of the baby boomer generation. Ergo, the mania will continue. Just as long as they can keep it going. After the correction which looms immediately ahead, this market will reach levels most cannot even conceptualize. Look closely at the IBM quarterlies and then contemplate the 6% rise in that issue today. You'll get the idea.

Gold has bottomed. I am long. I have stated here repeatedly that gold and Dow would go up TOGETHER during the last leg of the stock bull. That time is here. Dont believe the faint-hearted ones who wasted their substance buying gold in '97, only to "tap out" and turn perma-bear just as the turn was happening. But most of all, dont let the chicken littles cause you to throw away your money shorting the US equity market here. If you're nimble, you can make some short term $$ during the next few weeks. But this bull will trample all in its path when it starts to really snort this summer. Be out of exposure to equities and fully positioned in the "real stuff" by the time the leaves turn brown on the Banks of the Ohio this year.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:00 - ID#434137)
neat neat stuff...

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:02 - ID#431263)
Gott im Himmel! Only a two-word post from VR! I can't believe it! BUT I DO AGREE WITH YOU 100%, which is what I expect ALL gold miners and indices to make this year MINIMUM--including those XAU dogs, ABX, NEM, and PDG! : )

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:03 - ID#256326)
I agree that asset inflation is masking "price" inflation, but that does not mean that previous cycles are beside the point. Indeed it shows they ARE the point. All these things move in cycles. They are NOT linear. All long cycles show that equities and "stuff" go up together until quite late in the cycle. There are more and more severe bear markets as time goes on to be sure, but the trend is up for both along with interest rates. We are very early innings here.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:06 - ID#230216)
VERY weak volume....for June gold.....VERY......hmmmmm...
Short covering? We still need some FRESH longs to get this thing moving. That June chart looks promising though. It jumped off of a nice triangle/pennant formation. We need follow through tomorrow or else..... ( ugh ) . Let us not get our knickers in a wad. It is bad form ( smile thing ) . You can bet that the bears will not roll over and play dead. They still hold the LARGE bankroll built up over the last two ( or so ) years, NO? I don't think the brokerage house is making the margin calls just yet ( someone posted that earlier ) .....tomorrow is always a different story though. ( wink/smile thing ) ........ ( go gold ) .
away...from work

there will be no mad scramble for the gold.....uh-uh.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:07 - ID#255190)

Thanks JohnC for replying to Thor's question re: grams to Troy ounces conversion. I'm pretty suprised no one else volunteered earlier.

Oldman - glad you're long the yellow and look forward to some of that 'rotation' from equities into gold. It may very well be as you say re: the final leg. Way to heady stuff for moi. Cashed my chips many moons ago. But you are a true market cowboy bronco buster.

Ridem and make us proud, dude!!

Go gold!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:09 - ID#431263)
Are you SERIOUS, mein Herr? UP 19cents ( 8.3% ) ? Gott im Himmel, man! We're gonna' get richer faster than even the Cheesehead had imagined! Thanks for the post! And keep me and Myr informed as to which planet we hit next!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:11 - ID#30116)
Nice to see you posting again! The gold market must have turned because everytime I think about taking some profits ( finally! ) , the PM stocks go higher. This new 'paradigm' will require me to adjust from previous two years 'training' in the PM market. :- ) )

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:13 - ID#401237)

Which Tree and where on the Ohio?
How about that Big Oak where Morgan crossed?


(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:13 - ID#307271)
@robnoel, general, clone, others--Re: PALLADIUM and other exotics
Excluding coin trades ( e.g., the Ballerina mentioned by Robnoel ) , does anyone besides the Russians make money on Palladium? What about the other exotic species such as rhodium, etc.?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:14 - ID#340302)
The Central Error in Oldman's Thesis... the notion that the huge liquidity bubble can be controlled by the "big boys" at this point in time.

At best, it can be managed to some degree but invested market monies have now become such a significant fraction of GDP and the leverage factor behind these invested monies has increased exponentially even since Fall, '97. It is truly a house of cards now.

If anything, all evidence points to record insider sales of stock occurring right at this time. The "big boys" as Oldman states, are well into the process of cashing out.

For example, today's various investment house upgrades on tired old laggard IBM were designed solely for the benefit of "big boys" to cash out now, well in advance of Fall. The transfrer from big hands to little hands has been underway for some time and is nearing completion.

Recently, I talked to a buddy in Toronto who has something in the neighborhood of $10,000 invested in stocks. He is a typical small investor and he informed me that his broker has assured him that the downturn will NOT occur until the Fall. I have heard this little "revelatory" tidbit from a variety of sources. It now constitutes an established consensus amongst mutual fund investors, namely "We are safe until the Fall."

It is that very consensus that assures and guarantees the downturn will occur well before the Fall.



(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:16 - ID#431263)
Might as well throw in my gratuitous, self-serving WILLKOMMEN auch! Keep postin' even if you are at times a traitor ( I mean trader ) of the precious old yeller! : )

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:16 - ID#347447)
Aurophile, Steve in TO, Oldman
Aurophile: Can beet that!

Steve in TO: To think that the human organism is something seperate and apart from the organism of the cosmos does not make any sense. By the same token, to think that the mind of man is seperate from the Cosmic Mind is equally devoid of logic. Man is a microcosm of his creator. All things are miraculously and intricately interwoven and interlinked. The physical universe is a clockwork that tolls the time, and the tides, in both nature and the destinies of men. It is helpful to study things in this wise. It brings a greater depth of understanding, and things are revealed. Awesome things. Seek and ye shall find.

Oldman: I have said here many times that the final stage of a stock bull is usually accompanied by rising PM's. There ARE exceptions, as there are to every general rule, but it should not be surprising if this were the case now. Generally, however, the rise in gold lasts minimally several months, sometimes over a year, before stocks turn down. This cycle may be shortened somewhat. I still feel that 9500 is possible, and a logical top, technically, from the inverse head and shoulders breakout of last fall. If the utilities are stalled now, then it is only a matter of two to five months before the stock top is in. The utes are a powerful key. If they turn down from here it is just a matter of time. If they continue rising, I might stand back. I do intuit, as you, there will be a decline and an attempt at another high, which will fail. Then the bear.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:17 - ID#286199)
Cornucopia (CNPGF) is in the news...bad news that is

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:19 - ID#284255)
Why do they want the Dow to fall quicker?
"The Greenspan/Rubin/Klinton axis is now on the horns of a dilemma."

If so, why then the expansion of the speed bumps?

Surely they would want the market to correct slowly?

Or is it that, for some psychological reason, they want to let the air out of the bubble quicker?

John B__A
(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:20 - ID#211105)
Stock Shorts Being Slaughtered
Abstract from TheStreet.Com 4/21/98 7:11 PM ET

The Brits, of course, must be loving it. Just a few days after The Economist penned a piece on an asset bubble in the U.S., second-tier Internet plays look like they're trying to provide a cogent example. Over the past few days:

+ K-tel ( KTEL:Nasdaq ) the top-40 hits company turned Internet play. From a 6 5/8 close on April 8, the company closed today at 43 7/8, up 2 1/16. A combination of Internet mania and a massive short squeeze.

+ Today, the standout is 7th Level ( SEVL:Nasdaq ) , which closed up 7 1/2, or 428.5%, at 9 1/4. The pain for the shorts goes beyond 7th Level, though. There were a slew of second-tier Internet companies going through the roof today. Among them:

Market Guide ( MARG:Nasdaq ) rose 15 3/8, or 192.1%, to an all-time high of 23 ( having touched 29 1/2 intraday )

HomeCom Communications ( HCOM:Nasdaq ) gained 5 17/32, or 85.5%, to 11 15/16 ( having touched an all-time high of 18 1/4 intraday ) . Just a few days ago Reuters reported that HomeCom, "whose stock is trading in the $1 range," had put an acquisition plan on hold because of its woeful stock price.

Sharper Image ( SHRP:Nasdaq ) , retailer of items few people need and many people want, shot up 3 3/8, or 79.4%, to a nearly four-year high of 8. The company has a Web site and sells some of its merchandise thereon.

Navarre ( NAVR:Nasdaq ) advanced 3 1/8, or 50%, to a two-year high of 9 e.

Red Brick Systems ( REDB:Nasdaq ) tacked on 2 7/16, or 47.3%, to 7 5/8
"It's the kind of action that has one noted short-seller saying that the end is nigh. "This is the biggest speculative bubble in the history of the planet, okay," says Bill Fleckenstein, portfolio manager at
Fleckenstein Capital. "It's really not debatable for anyone who has an IQ of over 30 that this is an asset bubble. These are crappy businesses. This is just 100% unadulterated speculation." "Who's buying this stuff? That's your next question: Who's the greater fool?"

IMHO there's a good possiblity that the gold stock action today is just joining in with the overall speculative action. Odds are that gold stocks will head up and down along with the rest of the market. Lets hope it lasts for a while - but I doubt it.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:21 - ID#340302)
AUROPHILE claims the following re: precursory economic triggers... an economic debacle: " All these things move in cycles. They are NOT linear."

The statement is oxymoronic...that is, a contradiction in terms. The absolute statment that "all things move in cycles" is a linear form of thinking. It is not existential and I submit we are living in existential times.

At least, IMHO.



(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:21 - ID#341312)
They're back!
Glad to see Another and RJ ( and a few others ) have resumed posting. Between RJ's "on the trading floor" insight and Another's long term macroeconomic viewpoint we've got a lot to think about ( not to mention the Fed, the IMF, the BIS, Y2k, etc. ) . One other thing I'd like to comment on is the democracy vs. republic issue. I've always understood democracy to mean "one person, one vote" while a republic is a form of government in which elected officials have the power to pass and enforce laws. America, then, would definitely be a republic but not just any type of republic. It's a democratic republic. One, that, I believe faces two serious problems. First, the two major parties rarely oppose each other in any substantial way. They call each other lots of names and haggle over minor points in the legislation they pass. Looks good but at the end of the day the same bad laws get passed. ( When's the last time they actually *repealed* something? ) Second, the American public seems unwilling or unable to critically examine issues in depth. They just vote for the caricature or sound byte they like the best. Or maybe I just have *way* too much time on my hands!
Bart-thanks for the site! If I buy silver Maple Leafs from you in quantity ( several hundred ) how much over spot do you charge? Also, what's the shipping fee to the central U.S.? Any customs difficulties?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:22 - ID#431263)
CNPGF but one more example of promising JR's about to go under and lookin' for anyone to come to the rescue! MORE MERGERS AHEAD!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:23 - ID#26669)
Bismuth information
This may come as an odd time, what with the improvement in the gold market over the last few days and all, but I've had an interest in checking on the bismuth industry every few months since the US government started making noises to "protect" us from lead fishing sinkers and shotgun pellets some years ago. IMHO

Well, this week I picked up a fishing sinker mold and attached was a coupon for, you guessed it, a bismuth ingot. So I've sent off for the ingot ( which admittedly won't be at all as toxic as lead ) . But then, I got interested in the idea and sure enough, one of the megadepartmentstore outlets in town has gone from selling lead to bismuth sinkers. Then I looked up this reference on the internet.

I have no business nor monitary interest in either the URL or bismuth itself, except for the couple of bottles of bismuth liquid I keep around the house to sooth my stomach and the $9.95 for the bismuth ingot and free bismuth hat ( no kidding ) . Now, I realize bismuth isn't gold, but at least it is easier to cast than that damned palladium. Plus gold fishing sinkers would be really traumatic to lose in the weeds. IMHO

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:26 - ID#347447)
the seed of this stock bull's destruction lies in interest rates. Expansion of credit and liquidity ( the Green-span ) have lowered the per unit cost of money ( supply ) as would be the case in any commodity. As long as this continues, there will be no threat of rising rates due to tightening. Such tightening, real or artificial, would bring this house of cards down pronto. However, there cannot be a 9% expansion of money supply indefinitely. Greenspan has the deflation end of the Kondratieff Wave going for him and he knows it. The normal drag of this part of the 56 year cycle absorbs currency like a sponge without "inflationary" manifestations. This is a calculated risk taken by the Chairman and viable only because this is the FIRST deflationary segment of the K Wave in history to occur with no economy or financial system on gold. No currency is tied to it. Greenspan has conned the law of supply and demand temporarily. But the result is inflation nevertheless. With no specie backing, ANY increase in ( paper ) money supply is inflation. It has expressed in paper assets, but will express further as they are liquidated much as happened after the bull run from 1949 to 1966.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:27 - ID#256326)
It's your money. Invest it as you will. But there is a time for gold and stocks and a time for one or the other. If you don't like the word "cycles" call it history or whatever you wish. Or just be wrong.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:29 - ID#342376)
To Put or not to Put, that is the question....
OLDMAN-thanks for the post. I've sworn off Index Puts after not having done so well these last few months, to say the least. I agree that after a correction there is one more leg up. THERE HAS TO BE. These investers are buying on the dips and they won't change their habits yet. An interesting tidbit on Kaplan's page was that index options are pessimistic, while individual equity options are optimistic. This says people think the market is going down in general but not THEIR stocks. Denial is the driving force of this last stage of the equity bull. My question is what will happen that will make people see the Emperor has no clothes?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:29 - ID#340302)
@SHELLER...very astute observations...
...from my favorite astrologist.



(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:33 - ID#186147)
Too high???
farfel: The central error in YOUR thesis, and the one that has cost legions of investors ( many of them loyal Kitcoites ) a fortune over the last several years, is your assertion that there is a "huge liquidity bubble". Stocks are overvalued by some 25% at present levels, using the most conservative ( Greenspan ) valuation models. More realistic models, like that of Tony Evans
show us at about 10% overvaluation. All during '95 and '96 when the chicken littles were calling for 1929 all over again, stocks were UNDER valaued, even using Greenspan's model. When he spoke of "irrational Exuberance in December '96, his model had just barely crossed the fair value level. If he were in charge, he would have pissed on the bonfire at that time. But he is NOT in charge. Rubin is. And Klinton is Rubin's boy. And they cannot survive a bear. Thus the dilemma.

I say this fall mostly for safety's sake. I would not be at all surprised to see this parabolic pig continue to fatten well into '99. In '87 we were more than twice as overvalued as we are now. And this one is bigger. Much bigger. Both bull and bear. HUGE.~ Gone for now ~.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:35 - ID#347447)
I won't speak for any other nation, but as an American I will say that American politicians have no point of view, philosophically, and that the American public does not think deeply upon any issue in that regard either. The two circumstances feed each other in a degenerative spiral that has divested America of culture and ideology. Soon it will lose its prosperity if it doesn't wake up.
There isn't even a decent bloody communist or "liberal" to rail at in this country any more ( which reminds me, whatever happened to WW? ) . And the "Republican Revolution" gave us an idea of how long a "conservative" mania could last without folks getting distracted by nonsense.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:40 - ID#256326)
As much as I like your astro and your recipes, I have to say that the Kondratieff wave trough is behind us as is the major stock market crash. ( That was 1966-82. )
It's up from here after a bear market in stocks and re-start of inflation. Oldman and I have been debating this for two years, and I know he still thinks we still have a mega-crash ahead somewhere. We could come down to 5000 and not have a "crash".
The time for gold is now and the time for stocks is after the coming bear market "caused" by gold's renascence.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:40 - ID#431263)
Anybody here know what happened to that BRE-X movie that was supposed to be coming soon to a theater near you? Seems that NOW would be a great time to bring out a movie on BRE-X and scare the livin' hell outa' everybody who even thinks about buy'in a little currency insurance for the future! Yes?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:41 - ID#186147)
Too high???
sharefin: To answer you quickly ( since I respect you greatly ) , easy money is the milk of bull markets and tight money kills that fat bovine. Bonds lead stocks and the Utes lead bonds. Keep an eye on the Utes and you'll never be devastated by a crash/bear. Follow the money!~poof~ gone.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:49 - ID#347447)
count me as semi-crazy. I am still mostly in my usual obscure individual stock situations, and gleefully anticipating more, while growing more and more bearish on the major averages. I don't think the top is in yet though, and agree with those others here who see a jolting pattern for a while before the true bear unfolds. In that interim, the little obscure companies I track astrologically and technically can bring in some very nice moves. There may very well be a stall and churning of the big caps at the end here, while laggards, small caps, and speculative shares enjoy the final fling as investors and traders rush off in search of fresh faces. One of those faces may be gold as well, but other things are conspiring to launch a gold bull, and investors as a class will only catch on once prices get beyond $400. This cycle will be very aberrated if it ends with oils having topped in '96/97, and copper unresponsive. But that may be the case.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:51 - ID#286199)
Mike Sheller
I agree with your last post completely.
WW reincarnated as ROR ( with some improvements! : )

Good to see Oldman back....BBML

(Tue Apr 21 1998 22:57 - ID#340302)
As much as I admire OLDMAN's analytical skills...
...I must once again differ with his conclusions.

Again, comparisons to '87 are completely invalid. It is '98 and world conditions are radically different. Back then, the markets were manipulated by the Milken cartel of junk bond takeover artists. General investor participation was significantly lower than today. Aggregate personal debt was a mere fraction of today's figure.

Today, the markets are controlled by a de facto mutual fund cartel. There are many more units belonging to this cartel so that consensus is much harder to reach.

To a large extent, the Milken cartel collapsed when he could no longer exercise control over the junk bond Ponzi scheme he had created. Analogously, the mutual fund cartel will collapse when the unanimity of purpose dissolves and the controlling entity ( which I shall not name ) can no longer hold the entire rotation/index scheme together any longer. Ultimately, I believe liquidity inflow levels will be the downfall of this cartel and I believe we are seeing the "end of the rope" today for such liquidity inflows. Each cartel unit has its favorite index targets and will fight over the diminishing liquidity inflows. This fight will result in the conflict of action and purpose amongst the major funds. Anyway, that's my own thesis.

Furthermore, in '87, the world was not experiencing full scale currency wars and regional economic upheaval. This phenomenon only surfaced at the end of '97 so now, "chicken littles," as you call them, have greater reason to suggest that the sky is indeed falling.

Finally, I would not want to place my long stock bets on the conviction that Mr. Rubin controls the current, precarious economic boat...or for that matter, if I were to concede such a fact, what guarantee do I have he still will be in the Treasury tomorrow? Finally, you state that Rubin "cannot survive a bear." As far as I know, he has no intention of participating in the next Washington regime so I cannot imagine it is his primary concern. I imagine he has taken care of those he must.

In any case, Oldman, it is always a pleasure and a hoot to engage in intellectual war games.



Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:02 - ID#347447)
As per usual, there is no discrepancy in our thinking ( decrepit, perhaps, but not discrepant ) . I am precisely saying that unceasing inflation has floated us out of the current K Wave trough without the customary classic deflation of other cycles. Those looking for it up ahead may be left quizzically disappointed. I agree that, barring a few sloshy moments here and there, it's up, up and away from here in ( though in slo mo for a few years ) . I DO see an asset inversion ahead though, and the coming chronic weakness in stox n' bonds by 2000 will be offset by strength in gold, and notably silver in the early to mid years of the next decade. Mid 2000 looks like the crisis point for the New York Stock Exchange, beyond a shadow of a doubt.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:03 - ID#341312)
Mike Sheller
America will not wake up until after it's prosperity has been damaged. Right now, that seems very remote since we are living in undoubtedly the best economic conditions in many decades. I don't believe that inflation in ordinary consumer goods is anywhere near as low as the reports say ( complex durable goods are a notable exception ) and the budget "surplus" has been accomplished by looting social security, but the economy itself is a marvel of productivity and high employment. However, bust always follows boom and this one will be big! When, and what triggers it are unknown ( Y2K a leading candidate, along with overcapacity in many industries ) but when it happens it won't be pretty. As noted economist Mr. T of the A-Team would say: "I pity da fool" who's in office when this happens. Even this will probably just result in scapegoating. For some reason I'm even more pessimistic than usual tonight!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:05 - ID#253153)
In a severe market decline there is no place to HIDE
Some of the posters have elluded to the utilities as a place to hide during a severe market declines. This theory has been kicking around for a long time and has been blown somewhat out of context. Between 1929-1932
the utility index was down 77%. When the market really goes down in a big way, EVERYTHING tend to go in a big way. Investors often sell their best stocks just to get the money. A lot of fortunes were lost in the thirties by people that moved into defensive issues. In normal times , yes , defensive issues like food stocks, companies dealing in non-postponable goods and services do indeed enjoy more favor then their more cyclical cousins. Unfortunately these are NOT NPRMAL times. The place to be now is in GOLD.

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:07 - ID#287337)
Oldman & Sheler- Interest rates
Just a followup on ute's, long bonds &tc.

At the conference where J. Dines opined that Japan would be the most likely pin to burst the Dow baloon, Ian McAvity said that he thought the most likely thing to bring the Dow down would be interest rates. He said if you see US long bond ( 30 yr treauries ) rates hit 7%, run for cover.


(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:08 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select Sectors
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

American Gold & Precious Metals Chart

Energy & Energy Service Chart

Computers, Electronics & Software Chart

(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:09 - ID#431263)
7%? Hell, I'm runnin' for cover NOW and we ain't even at 6% yet!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:09 - ID#410114)
What are UTE's?

(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:10 - ID#368244)

Up a modest 19% today.

Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug
(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:11 - ID#432214)
STEVE IN TO - Re Golden Knight (GKR)
He reason you see the higher quote on Vancouver is that the company probably delisted from Vancouver and the quote you see could be a quote from last year. This is common with other stocks as well. For example Prime Res ( PRU ) is still listed be listed in Vancouver however the majority of the trading occurs on Toronto.

Go Gold

(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:16 - ID#197328)

Plaintalker: Just catching up on posts again and saw yours
of a couple hours ago directed my way. Most times I log on and
'save' several hours worth of Kitco posts to read off-line later.
I don't post to often as my posts couldn't compare to the
wisdom and knowledge exhibited by others such as F*, A, Vsky,
etc. I'm about to log off now as it's time for bed. Tommorrow
starts another 4 day trip. I return late Saturday night and will
probably log on sometime Sunday. Cheers.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:17 - ID#401237)
The Fed & Rates

Tuesday April 21, 10:19 pm Eastern Time

CORRECTED - FOCUS-Fed to act unless Asia cuts growth-Ferguson

``Either Asia will slow the economy to something that is more sustainable or there will have to be some Fed action that will do that,'' Ferguson said.

``There is a group of people in the Fed that's worried, and if the economy doesn't slow down it's going to be a problem to them,'' said economist James Glassman of Chase Securities in New York.


(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:17 - ID#348295)
I have taken note in regard to two certain individuals in the
past two days loudly proclaiming gold to go down, and to short
it at the same time. Those who took their advice have as of this
close today, have lost a lot of their money due to this reckless
and irresponsible advice. There are litigation solutions for this
type of problem I can assure you, and should be taken.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:18 - ID#347447)
Steve in TO, fiveliter
Steve: No question, EVERY bull market dies when rates start rising. In a healthy cycle, stocks can and do continue to advance as rates begin to do so, but eventually a point is reached where investors bail out. I think with communications, technical and anecdotal wisdom so prevalent today, even a whiff of significantly higher rates to come will cap this party and send the guests out the doors and windows ( well, maybe WINDOWS was a little insensitive ) .

fiveliter: Hey, thanks for reminding me of Mr. T. Loved him! Also love it when a plan comes together.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:22 - ID#286230)
Aurophil: Thanks for the inflation information. It seems to me that those who think the inflation numbers are purposively incorrect are missing the forest while looking for rotting trees. I decided that once gold came close to the 1996 estimated/believed cost of production of $275 that the bottom was reachable if not there. "...a gentle rise for
several decades" is not as exciting as the hoped for spike of some but it means we can buy some beans and ease back on the cases of soup.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:24 - ID#347447)
Let us not have any talk about "legal liability" when people are voicing opinions about which way a generic asset like gold, a raw element of nature, will move in price. There are ONLY 3 ways it can go - up, down, or sideways ( which is nowhere ) ( ( the same place your "legal case" appears to be ) ) . You are judging motives here, and that is absolutely impossible for you to do. Plus the sound of your plaint is both chilling to free speech and disgustingly wimpy as well. I suggest you buy a mutual fund, and then stand in line to press your suit in about two years ( your suit looks a little rumpled to me, judging from your comment ) . That should make you very happy.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:24 - ID#344308)

looks like the us$ is fixing to tank...

paper tops....dow--dollar--bonds--

solid's....commodities in general

the wave is coming...the cycle that brings the mighty
to their knees, and up-lifts the lowly to the greatest heights...
it knocks upon your door....hello peopleo....time to harvest the fruits
from de-coupling currencies from gold and silver...they are poisonous
and sterile...our childrens heritage stolen---given?--by a paper ploy...
so subtle as to escape the eye, until the truncheon is applied to the cranium...then the peopleo will ask why? eb would say oh my!
time escapes us all......don't let it escape you and yours. the nwo-for-lunch-bunch- ( al-goofy-gore ) has big plans for all THEIR electorate.

paranoia is one thing.....prudence is another. consider all things.
consider the forgotten past. consider buy low,sell high.

cherokee!; ) ...setting-the-stage----to-build-another-post-crash-ssm...bbb

(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:25 - ID#288349)
I'm with you F*, Government cooks the CPI
Farfel is absolutely right when he says inflation is embedded in the US economy. About a year and half ago I heard a report on the radio that government had redefined the formula for determining CPI allegedly "because the current formula does not take certain items into account and presents a false picture of inflation".

One might ask why the CPI needs to be redefined if inflation is truly at the absurdly low levels claimed by our handlers.

The pity is that the general population has never had experience with PR and cannot tell the difference between hard facts and propaganda. As long as it is backed up with pictures or a 5 second sound bite it must be true.

It is rather astonishing that seemingly educated people will sing the no-inflation chorus and regurgitate information that can only charitably be referred to "PR".

We live in an era where the art of spin has been developed to such a high degree that there is actually very little hard news reported anymore. What passes for news usually contains one or perhaps 2 salient facts followed by several minutes of editorializing dressed up to look like news.

This news was not reported on any major networks and was announced on NPR in about 2 sentences.

The primary INDICATORS of inflation are what we are seeing manipulated on a daily basis. The government has simply redefined what inflation is and focuses everyones attention on CPI as if it was gospel. It ain't.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:26 - ID#348295)
Farfel, I had not scanned down tonight, before I posted.
The earlier post I made was not in any way directed toward
you in any respect. I always enjoy your posts, and hope you
keep them coming. The ones I refer to know who they are.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:35 - ID#344308)


your vision is clouded by the fur-ball in your belly...

short the us$...and the long bond.....make some $$$$...
go long cotton, sugar, and gold...immb.
go back to lurking, else risk a knot on the noggin from the


(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:35 - ID#401237)
Utilities - Looks like a top to me.

What do you think?^UTY&d=3m^UTY&d=1y^UTY&d=my


(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:36 - ID#348295)
Do not bring your thoughts to my attention ever again.
I do not appreciate them, and will take steps if you persist,
in your obvious efforts to demean my post publicly.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:43 - ID#401237)

I certainly hope you are not referring to my posts where I casually mentioned that I wish I had bought Cheese Cake. You didn't go out and short Cheese Cake did you?

Good Night All,
It has been a good day for all except those who shorted.....Heh Heh......


(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:43 - ID#233181)
I was going to for quotes until the format changed and have tried a suggested with no luck. Anyone have a recommendation for where $/Yen currency exchange rate quotes can be found in active Asian trade.

Thanks in advance-

(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:47 - ID#39828)
and dont forget to
Go long lolly-pops.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:47 - ID#228128)
You said that you would come back to the site and let us know when you went long on gold. Thanks!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:48 - ID#431263)
Hitler's birthday was yesterday! And we all know what happened to HIM! Quit givin' deutschers like me a black eye! This site has no room for threatmeisters such as youself! If you disagree with a post, state your reasons why and sign off. But save your threats of civil action for the day when you may really need them. Kitco-ites and Bart, the webmeister will not tolerate personal threats from people like you! I Kitco you not!

(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:49 - ID#344308)


"BURP" demean yourself with your lawyer-ish--councilor--
demeanor...lawyers, politicians, liberals.....birds of a feather.

who in the world would buy futures based only on the opinion of
a regular in a discussion group? does'nt everybody use the data
here to ADD TO their own research, before investing?

sounds like someone with a dirty diaper....we do not change diapers
on kitco! call your mommy!


John B__A
(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:52 - ID#211105)
Some Good Words From Blanchard

Reuters, Tuesday, April 21, 1998 at 16:34

"There are four factors that are beginning to turn the ( gold ) market around even now, and will lead to substantially higher gold prices by the end of 1998," James Blanchard, editor of Gold Newsletter said.

1 ) Money supply for the 26 member OECD countries is growing at a faster rate than at any time since 1972, helping to boost financial asset prices sharply,

2 ) while Asian gold demand is recovering,

3 ) European central bank gold sales have ceased this year, and

4 ) some interest in gold as a portfolio diversifier is being noted among mutual funds, Blanchard argued.

My comment: This final point is true - brokerages houses have started in the past couple of weeks to upgrade gold mining companies.

(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:54 - ID#401237)
Cheese Cake

I made another mistake, I should have shorted Cheese Cake - this has to be a final sign/indicator that the trend has changed, they are rotating out of CC and into Gold.

SLE -3/4 today

I am gone,

(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:59 - ID#287193)
To Bart and @223 and all
Bart: The Mounties arrived today! Thank you for the fast service.

To 223er: Thank you for the Bismuth link. I was looking for low temp.

casting alloys--used simular before.

I attended the Toronto conference too.

Techstock has a detailed report on what the diff.boys had to say ( from Jimsy )

I did not check to find out if this was posted earlier.


(Tue Apr 21 1998 23:59 - ID#373403)
Lawsuits for being given bad advice? Maybe we should all sue Kitco for setting up a discussion group on a metal which has lost much value in two years ( sarcasm, kidding )

Grow up and if you are investing based exclusively on others advice, you deserve to lose your shorts.