Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:04 - ID#22956)
murrrrsteiner the weener....
QUIT CRYING YA BIG WUSSY....these are just opinions here. If you want to take legal action.....BITE ME! GO.......

(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:05 - ID#342376)
Great day of posts! Up until recently....
I have never seen a threat made on this site. Tisk, Tisk

(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:07 - ID#255151)
Heh Heh

Some of the posters at Kitco say mean things. This has caused me great distress and insomnia. Therefore, I am forced to sue all of you.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:07 - ID#240316)
Legal Question
If, as I walk down the street, I see someone writing on the wall and upon reading it find it says "Go F#*%! Yourself," and I injure myself in the attempt - can I sue the guy who wrote it?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:11 - ID#287358)
Utes and more
Utes in the New Zealand classifieds are utility vehicles.

Utes on this site would be the short form of "utilities," or
"utility index."

Every post I write is MY OPINION. I do not require payment
for MY OPINION, and I often recommend my ideas to my friends.
"Remember to carry your 'brolly, as it is likely to rain."
Everyone worldwide is entitled to opinions. Every post on
this site ends with the words, "in my opinion," "IMO," or
"in my humble opinion." I see those disclaimers every time,
whether or not they appear in print. I am an adult, and I
do not blame anyone or anything else when any market or
Lady Luck goes against me. I lose at Solitaire too often, in
my humble opinion.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:11 - ID#253153)
Mr. Murrystein -----You owe us all an apology

Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug
(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:16 - ID#434179)
James Dines on CBC Business World
James Dines was on CBC Business World. He is predicting a 15,000 DOW. He stated that before it is all over the DOW could go up by 1000 points in a day. "This is the mother of all bull markets" he said. He was asked what other sectors he liked, He said he was the original gold bug and it was time to buy gold stocks, ABX, FN, were sited. He also gave a plug for SWC and PAA.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:20 - ID#347447)
whatcha gonna do? tell yer mommy?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:20 - ID#286230)
Mike Sheller: Don't know where I'm going to get the "little,roundish,green and red and yellow" chiles's up here but I'm growing my own coriander.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:23 - ID#347447)
the coriander is more important. don't worry if you can't get the chilies. If you can find a Latin Market or Grocery - Cuban, Puerto Rican, Dominican, Colombian, Central American of any kind, etc - you have a shot at the chilis.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:24 - ID#253153)
At 15000 on the DOW--- dividend will be 0.09 %-----Impossible

Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug
(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:24 - ID#434179)
Murrstein = Andy Smith???? - Go back to UBS
Is that you Andy?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:30 - ID#20135)
What a nice day. Paper gold traded 3.5 million ounces up from 1.5 million ounces yesterday.
Remember buy gold and take delivery. Goodnight all.

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

480,552 0 5,348 -5,348 0 475,204
159,146 10,091 0 10,091 0 169,237
639,698 10,091 5,348 4,743 0 644,441

-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )

-20,172 111,068 33,308,732
-873,574 -111,068 55,948,803
-893,746 0 89,257,535


Gold 35,000
Silver 21,000
H.G. Copper 13,000

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:32 - ID#347447)
a scant dividend like that is more than compensated by the 30% annual growth grate ( compounded ) in capital gains. ( ;- )
IMVVVHAMAHUO ( in my very very veryhumble and meek and honest unbiased opinion )

NOTE: The thoughts and analyses expressed in this post are speculation. The reader must choose how much of the material presented herein should be used to apply to his/her own personal market activities. Any comments, predictions, or speculations concerning companies, investments, or investment markets are for research and educational purposes and may be subject to error. Past patterns and occurences in financial markets, whether in relation to astrology or any other form of analysis or strategy, may not always be reliable indicators of future activity. Readers are advised of the potential risk of capital loss in any uninsured investment, including stocks, bonds, gold bullion, futures, and other investment vehicles. Even paper money issued by lawfully constituted governments, including the Treasury of the United States of America, carries no guarantee that its purchasing power and relative value will remain intact and not erode over time. Information contained in this post may have been gathered from many sources, believed to be reliable, but no guarantee can be made as to the accuracy of such information. The issuer of this post is not a dealer or broker in investments, neither stocks, bonds, gold, or other investments. The issuer of this post may have a position in the securities, commodities, or investments mentioned. The issuer of this post presents the material herein as proprietary opinion and research and is not acting in any investment advisory capacity. Readers are advised to consult with their own personal or corporate sources of financial or market counsel. All choices made by readers of this post based on the information contained herein are the responsibility of the reader. It is the right of every person in a free society to use the information presented herein as they best see fit.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:34 - ID#266105)
@Mike Sheller


(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:34 - ID#342376)
Looks like Buffet has it right. Silver to explode in the next year...
Anyone hear of Ballard Power Systems? A Canadian Company that developed a low cost fuel cell that converts gas to electricity without combustion! It uses Silver. I think I'm getting on the Silver Train, not to mention looking into that company. Production to start in a year or so.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:35 - ID#347447)
I think I can say with some assurance that in the coming weeks the price of gold! yes, fluctuate! IMVHO

NOTE: The thoughts and analyses expressed in this post are speculation. The reader must choose how much of the material presented herein should be used to apply to his/her own personal market activities. Any comments, predictions, or speculations concerning companies, investments, or investment markets are for research and educational purposes and may be subject to error. Past patterns and occurences in financial markets, whether in relation to astrology or any other form of analysis or strategy, may not always be reliable indicators of future activity. Readers are advised of the potential risk of capital loss in any uninsured investment, including stocks, bonds, gold bullion, futures, and other investment vehicles. Even paper money issued by lawfully constituted governments, including the Treasury of the United States of America, carries no guarantee that its purchasing power and relative value will remain intact and not erode over time. Information contained in this post may have been gathered from many sources, believed to be reliable, but no guarantee can be made as to the accuracy of such information. The issuer of this post is not a dealer or broker in investments, neither stocks, bonds, gold, or other investments. The issuer of this post may have a position in the securities, commodities, or investments mentioned. The issuer of this post presents the material herein as proprietary opinion and research and is not acting in any investment advisory capacity. Readers are advised to consult with their own personal or corporate sources of financial or market counsel. All choices made by readers of this post based on the information contained herein are the responsibility of the reader. It is the right of every person in a free society to use the information presented herein as they best see fit.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:37 - ID#228128)
Average Joe: the rest of the story
I got the same subsription offer from Schaffer that you mentioned earlier today. Note on his "track record" that he lists the buy price, the peak price, a % gain on the stock calculated on the basis of the buy and peak prices, and finally whether the stock is active or sold. Many of the stocks that he lists as active are now selling for pennies on the dollar of his purchase price. His gains of hundreds of percent mean nothing if he didn't sell at the peak. He is actually losing money on the stock. For those stocks he lists as sold we have no knowledge of what price he got for them but the same caveat applies. You can't say the advertisement is false but it appears deceptive to me. These gold newsletter guys must be starving by now. Schaffer seems otherwise well respected and I don't classify him as one of the scumbags who tell their readers to buy stock ABC about the time that their previously purchased private placement is available to trade. I've checked his private placements on the Vancouver Stock Exchange and if memory serves he is not one who participates in these offerings, at least not in his own name. I hope that this helps.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:37 - ID#270265)
Boy that guy sure was a bull 15,000!!!!!!! AND GOLD STILL GOING UP I wonder what he was on today? Can this be true

(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:38 - ID#286230)
crazytimes: If you are a member of SI you can get Ballard info here

(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:38 - ID#253153)
Dow 15000---Mike Sheller
I guess everything is possible, but I just can't see 15000 on the Dow .
I think the Dow could reach 9400-9500 soon before the final top is in.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:38 - ID#347447)
Getting sleepy...sleeeeepy
Good nite ( or g'day ) all! really need my beauty rest. Love you all ( except for two of you, and you know who you are ) .

NOTE: The thoughts and analyses expressed in this post are speculation. The reader must choose how much of the material presented herein should be used to apply to his/her own personal market activities. Any comments, predictions, or speculations concerning companies, investments, or investment markets are for research and educational purposes and may be subject to error. Past patterns and occurences in financial markets, whether in relation to astrology or any other form of analysis or strategy, may not always be reliable indicators of future activity. Readers are advised of the potential risk of capital loss in any uninsured investment, including stocks, bonds, gold bullion, futures, and other investment vehicles. Even paper money issued by lawfully constituted governments, including the Treasury of the United States of America, carries no guarantee that its purchasing power and relative value will remain intact and not erode over time. Information contained in this post may have been gathered from many sources, believed to be reliable, but no guarantee can be made as to the accuracy of such information. The issuer of this post is not a dealer or broker in investments, neither stocks, bonds, gold, or other investments. The issuer of this post may have a position in the securities, commodities, or investments mentioned. The issuer of this post presents the material herein as proprietary opinion and research and is not acting in any investment advisory capacity. Readers are advised to consult with their own personal or corporate sources of financial or market counsel. All choices made by readers of this post based on the information contained herein are the responsibility of the reader. It is the right of every person in a free society to use the information presented herein as they best see fit.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:38 - ID#57232)
Oldman -- thanks for the post!
I am less expert than you on the matters of the market, and certainly will be out of any non-precious metals equities within a few months.

I find it hard to believe that this bull market will crash in the fall, unless some major external events occur, such as a Japan crash, or oil crisis. I think you did say also that you expected considerable turmoil for a time, since the market bulls will not give up easily. Year 2000 seems to me a more likely convergence point of bearish factors, namely because a Clinton - Starr meltdown/Y2K/psychological confidence crisis might all come together.

I am curious about your opinion regarding being in precious metals stocks if the markets did crash -- in my opinion a market liquidity crisis with margin calls is likely to hit all equities, even gold stocks, though they probably won't have as far to fall. I will bail out of most of my gold equities if I see major turmoil ahead -- I am very mindful of the 1987 events with gold stocks.

It will be interesting if RJ is also long on gold. Incidentally when you say you are long gold, what percentage of your liquid assets are long? Currently I am about 15% long, and am awaiting the right time to add to my holdings.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:39 - ID#347447)
I was KIDDING, jp, only kidding. "nite.

NOTE: The thoughts and analyses expressed in this post are speculation. The reader must choose how much of the material presented herein should be used to apply to his/her own personal market activities. Any comments, predictions, or speculations concerning companies, investments, or investment markets are for research and educational purposes and may be subject to error. Past patterns and occurences in financial markets, whether in relation to astrology or any other form of analysis or strategy, may not always be reliable indicators of future activity. Readers are advised of the potential risk of capital loss in any uninsured investment, including stocks, bonds, gold bullion, futures, and other investment vehicles. Even paper money issued by lawfully constituted governments, including the Treasury of the United States of America, carries no guarantee that its purchasing power and relative value will remain intact and not erode over time. Information contained in this post may have been gathered from many sources, believed to be reliable, but no guarantee can be made as to the accuracy of such information. The issuer of this post is not a dealer or broker in investments, neither stocks, bonds, gold, or other investments. The issuer of this post may have a position in the securities, commodities, or investments mentioned. The issuer of this post presents the material herein as proprietary opinion and research and is not acting in any investment advisory capacity. Readers are advised to consult with their own personal or corporate sources of financial or market counsel. All choices made by readers of this post based on the information contained herein are the responsibility of the reader. It is the right of every person in a free society to use the information presented herein as they best see fit.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:40 - ID#340302)
When James Dines predicts 15,000 on the DOW...
...and movements of 1000 points a day, then I can only assume he is attempting to give bulls a nice dose of "irrational exuberance," thereby presenting them clear cut evidence that the top is here.

One thing about, Jim, he's always been one of my favorite comedians.

Thanks, Jim, I needed the laugh.


(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:43 - ID#342376)
@ Mike Sheller (NOTE)
Very funny! Your NOTE should of course be read by posters VERY quickly like those radio ads.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:48 - ID#431263)
Guten Tag, Mate! Hedgehog whet my appetite for Lihir with his post from evening last that LIHIR was up some 8.3% or 19 cents/share. Could you please post the high, low, close and volume figures for Lihir when you're fully awake? Danke! Und stechen Sie ein Bratwurst on die Barbie fur mich, wurden Sie? Schmecht gut! Ya?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 00:56 - ID#57232)
Fast-reading posts! G'Nite all!
crazytimes: Great idea! Mike Sheller please take note! We need someone good at Java or something similar to come up with an Internet version of the fine print/fast-talking disclaimer. How about fast-moving text? I love the adds I hear on the radio about buying oil or gold futures -- after using about 100 words in about 60 sec to describe that great investment deal, another 100 words are used in about 5 sec to describe the downside. You really have to concentrate to hear that part.

Steve in TO__A
(Wed Apr 22 1998 01:11 - ID#287337)
Mike, Herr Csekopf, G & S & P Bug: interest rates & ThanQ
Dear G.S.P. Bug- I think you're righgt about the Vancouver quote being old. After my post I called my broker & checked what info. they have. He said his Vancouver quote was showing $8! He speculated that the stock was not trading any more, just like you did. Shows how volatile these junior golds can be.

As far as interest rates go- I'm sure that's why the G7 finance ministers have been having conniptions about Japan- and have been meeting frantically and pressuring Japan for committments to stimulate. If the Japanese banking crisis postulated by many does occur, they'll start selling US debt- which will tank the US$. Greenspan & Clinton- the ones who are really watching this thing anxiously- will be checkmated if that happens. They can't defend the dollar from reserves- they don't have enough. If they try to defend the dollar by raising interest rates they will trigger a bear market as we've discussed, which will get Clinton impeached, and if they don't defend the US$, foreigners will be forced to sell their US equities, which will trigger a bear market, which will get clinton . . .

I've been hearing that the US gov't has been putting tremendous pressure on the Japanese not to sell their US Treasury Debt. They know that massive Japanese selling will trigger a financial meltdown. The Japanese are between a rock and a hard place because they are dependent on the US for defense. If anyone gets some details about the pressure on the Japanese, please post it or email me ( )


Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug
(Wed Apr 22 1998 01:21 - ID#432214)
Re James Dines
Farfel, Dines was not joking, he looked like a raging bull and was all worked up. He was talking about AOL and the net saying it was the greatest thing since the wheel. etc, He was talking about his mass pyschology book and saying it was the raving crowds ( mutual funds ) pushing the market higher... He said something about not selling until he flashes his sell signal..

The bug signing off.

Monkee Person
(Wed Apr 22 1998 01:32 - ID#288105)
I missed it! The Kitco group has acted most swiftly upon the Murrstein.
I believe you've more than dazed him! I know only too well. For it was I, the Monkee Person, under another moniker in a near all-out fracas that prompted Bart to post the warning ( "...harassing or defamatory...accept liability...." ) that you see on these pages.

Yes! Way back when.

jab,, post...hook, hook. Then, BOOM! Sheller delivers the "mommy" punch. :-0

( hmmmm-aaah ) Just like the old days. Back at 400. :- )

A sign of better things to come.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 01:42 - ID#340302)
The BRE-X case or Another Reason Wall Street Hates Gold Stocks...
...and, of course, Another Reason Goldbugs Hate Wall Street.

When you take a look at the primary defendants in the Bre-X case, it is little wonder that gold companies have left a bad taste in Wall Street's collective mouth. The more notable defendants include J.P. Morgan Securities Inc., Nesbitt Burns Inc., and Lehman Brothers Inc.

So, it is no surprise that, almost unanimously, the Wall Street Brotherhood of Investment Dealers has condemned the gold companies ever since the Bre-X scandal unfolded. They are trying to make up for those days in which they endorsed wholeheartedly the Bre-X scam. The new rule: condemn any company with the name "gold" attached to it.

In doing so, they have acted with maximum stupidity. Not only have they alienated the Bre-X investors who relied upon their bad advice, but their past few years of incessant denigration of gold stocks in general have made them enemies of most all gold-bugs. Moreover, they seem to forget that there are several extremely powerful gentleman in this country who maintain significant gold holdings and do not appreciate the treatment their primary investments received at Wall Street hands

If these Wall Street firms had been smarter, they would have talked up gold stocks to the roof after Bre-X since so many Bre-X investors sufferred double and triple whammies in losses incurred in all their other primary gold holdings owing to the dreaded "Bre-X Effect."

But Wall Street was dumb as a doorknob in that respect...and now they will have hell to pay. The Street is not disliked by is despised by them. I do not know of a single, genuine goldbug who is not hoping and praying that Mr. Yetter nails these slimy bastards to a cross and eviscerates and destroys their miserable companies. Five billion dollars in damages...IT'S NOT ENOUGH!!! IT'S NOT ENOUGH!!

Wall Street has a great deal of atonement to make in order to win over the hearts of goldbugs. They can begin the healing process today in rapid earnest by extolling gold stocks to the heavens...not through slight, half-hearted upgrades but rather through earnest, genuine BUY recommendations. Their continued failure to promote actively the major gold producers will ensure that goldbugs remain embittered toward them. It is one thing for goldbugs to have not benefited from this decade's avalanche of is beyond infuriating to think that they have as a collective group been significantly harmed by it. Remember: whenever a particular group is excluded from the benefits of general prosperity, then it is a virtual certainty that group will strike out in retaliation. I feel certain that a vicious punishment ( either direct or indirect ) awaits Wall Street investment firms at the hands of all harmed goldbugs.

As of the other day, I have requested class action status on behalf of all gold investors who suffered indirect pain from the Bre-X fraud over the last two years. The Bre-X stigma was certainly a much more significant factor causing harm to gold investments than any incestuous gold sales between central banks. Moreover, I am cynical enough to believe that Wall Street requested several of the central banks to make specious, disingenuous announcements about gold sales in order to divert attention away from the harmful "Bre-X Effect" and Wall Street's role in the entire debacle. In terms of damages, we are not talking a few billion dollars here. We are talking MANY billions of dollars in damages. My request is now under consideration by a New York litigation firm. I firmly believe this lawsuit can be broadened into a much larger class action group as well as a much larger group of Wall Street defendants.



(Wed Apr 22 1998 01:45 - ID#340302)
@GOLD/SILVER/PLAT BUG...Believe me, if you know James Dines... well as I do, then he was just joking!

15,000 DOW?? He is one of the funniest goldbugs on the circuit today.



(Wed Apr 22 1998 01:48 - ID#33164)
Oh Dear! Back to Abnormal.....?!
Morning to All my Favourite People!

Looks like Kitcoian exuberance out there to me?

Great call on NYSE Gold degree, Mike S!!

Aurator@StorytellerofNote - Do you remember that delightful story of the very little gold Imperial bull that you wrote the first day I came onto Kitco, blindly & bravely looking for the meaning of Fibonacci numbers?

Are you now also a Prauphet? ( :- ) )


(Wed Apr 22 1998 02:03 - ID#257148)
I remember the story or the two bulls well, I could repost, if requested, I think I could find it.

Here is my favourite disclaimer, from "Where are the Customer's Yachts" written in the 40's

The information presented herein, while not guaranteed by me, has
been obtained from sources which have not in the past proved
particularly reliable.

I think our leetle wager was responsible for Kitco crashing and gold soaring. Really! All over a half oz kiwi.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 02:07 - ID#307360)
John C - 21:50

Thank you for your help.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 02:23 - ID#34883)
@damn the torpedoes

(Wed Apr 22 1998 02:27 - ID#286279)
looks like you got some people worried...hee hee ha ha ho ho ho HAR HAR HAR HAR HO hooo hooo hoooeee ha ha heh heh heh...heh... ha ha ha hoa urp ech hmm hmm hmm

(Wed Apr 22 1998 02:27 - ID#340302)
Tonight's Final Post or Spinning the Proper Perception...
The imminent revelation of gold reserves supporting the EURO will be most interesting...not in terms of the announced support but rather the manner in which Wall Street will proceed to declare the level of support as being "a major disappointment."

Remember, no matter what level of support ( 5%, 10%, 20%, or 50% ) is announced, Wall Street is certain to disparage the fact. It is the methodology of The Street's New Paradigm...the constant disparagement of gold as an alternative financial asset, not to mention the constant espousal of a strong U.S. buck.

So, once again, with a few new revisions to facilitate poetic metre, I exhort all Kitcoites to recite a mantra of positive gold perception. It's catchy, it's fun, and it goes like this:


Yeah, I like more time ( with enthusiasm ) .




(Wed Apr 22 1998 02:33 - ID#33164)
Aurator-Your little bull story
Thanks Aurator-
I'd love to see it again- at that time I didn't know how to 'cut & paste' and it disappeared into cyberspace.

Had you, Sharefin, Nick@C, Donald, MikeS, EB & Schippi not been so charming to me that morning I would not have stayed with Kitco, [did I even KNOW I was on a 'economic type' & not an 'art' forum!!?] and I thank you ALL for that, as I've learnt much since then. You've all changed my whole way of seeing!

And subsequently found the wonderful essence of others here too.

If your story is appropriate for now, please do post it? otherwise you could e-mail it to me at It will be my Kitco momento. Thanks in advance & Kind regards

(Wed Apr 22 1998 02:39 - ID#286279)
get a life

(Wed Apr 22 1998 02:42 - ID#286279)
heh heh haw haw haw oh

(Wed Apr 22 1998 02:43 - ID#255151)

Over a half ounce, indeed. Who'd've thought it! Hey, check this story out. This is bizarre and chilling. Apparently some computer hackers got into some classified Defense data. The Dept. of Defense confirms a breech in computer security.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 02:52 - ID#284255)
Thank you, Oldman, but the speed bump question remains?
Herr Cheezehead
Lihir up 12c to $2.47


Thoughts that other think in the middle of the night.
You're not working on the Year 2000 problem because...It's not your problem.
You still believe in Santa Claus.You're using client/server applications.
Your company can't afford it ( but it can afford to go under ) .
The New Year's holiday is always over a long weekend-
that should give you enough time to fix the problem.
You're moving to a paper-based office.
How could two little digits cause so much trouble?
Your horoscope doesn't mention anything about it.
There are no programmers left; they're all working on the Y2K problem.
You have company standards that deal with this sort of thing.
You never work over the New Year's holiday.
Your standards and QA wouldn't allow anything bad to happen.
You deleted the Visual Basic code for your applications from your harddisk.
You'll have a support person go in over the weekend just in case.
You can't admit to having released software that doesn't work properly.
You believe that the world will come to an end in 1999.
Things are too busy at the moment.
Your applications will have been replaced by the year 2000.
You don't use third-party controls.Microsoft will fix the problem.
All your software is written by outside vendors, so the Y2K stuff won't be a problem.
Year 2000 problem-what Year 2000 problem?
You just can't be bothered.You hate this company anyway; let them suffer.
You get a buzz from all the doom and gloom.
The whiz kids are bound to come up with a silver bullet that will fix everything.
You're waiting until your competition starts working on the problem.
You're looking for a new job.Nobody has asked you to look into it yet.
All your resources are tied up writing new applications.
The Year 2000 crisis should help to strengthen your team awareness.
You can't bear the thought of all that work.It's all hype.
You've still got over two years left, so what's the rush?
You've always thought that your company relied too much on computers anyway.
It's a PC problem; the software won't be affected.
You're trying to get into a more relaxed lifestyle.
You'll get around to it any day now.
You don't use many dates in your applications.
You can't face telling your manager about the problem.You're playing it by ear.
You'll be retired before the year 2000.
All your applications are brand-new, so it won't be a problem.
You've never liked New Year's Eve parties anyway.
The Year 2000 sounds so far in the future.
You work only with fancy buzzwords; this problem isn't attractiveenough.
It's just a job.You haven't heard of this problem, so it can't be true.
You wrote your software and can't bear to admit it has a problem.
If anything goes wrong, you'll bring in a contractor to fix it.
You don't really need to invoice your customers for a few months.
You don't do maintenance.You're planning to look into this next year.
You believe the Y2K problem has been invented by consultants.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 03:06 - ID#255284)
repost-- a "tail of two bulls"
what the hay. Here it is, I've done a little editing only. It is as appropriate today as the day you peek in at kitco for the first time;

Have you ever heard a story of the Meninkabau of Central Sumatra? A proud people, the Meninkabau ruled by a beautiful queen named colleen ( just kidding ) Actually I have forgotten her name, so we'll call her colleen. The Imperial King Bart ( well that's not his name either ) from Java was always looking for war. He needed more land and more food for his people. His massed armies set sail from the West Coast of Java and amassed on the beaches of Sumatra. For miles they stretched across a large bay. The sun glinted off sword and helmet as two armies stood against each other ready for battle.

Queen Colleen saw that her warriors were brave, they were fearless, they were draped in gold, audacious warriors...

But Queen Colleen also knew that if she let King Bart attack her armies there would be much loss of life and the beaches would once again run red with needless gore. Once more there would be widows and orphans in the villages.

So Queen Collen had a plan, she knew, like all good men of these islands, King Bart measured himself by the prowess of his fighting bull. The great Brahma Bull. The greatest fighting bulls in the world belonged to King Bart. A horn span wider than a man is tall. The great Javanese fighting bull, with his spurs on his legs, and scimitars on his back ( so like a rhino MS ) was a fearful sight. As is known the world over, the man with the biggest bulls has the ...well...biggest......

And Queen Colleen, ( for that is what we are calling her ) challenged his Imperial majesty King Bart ( for that is what we are calling him ) to a duel of fighting bulls. She said:

Let us not spill the blood of our brothers and sister today! Let us not make our mothers weep! Let us rather have a duel of bulls. Your 'un, aginst my 'un.

And it was well known in the land that King Bart ( tho he is evil in this story, dear reader, he has a heart of gold ) had the meanest biggest fightingest danged bull in the whole of these ten thousand islands of our Indonesain home. Queen Collen has lost it, the people said one to another. She gone crazy.

"O.K." said the imperial majesty K B Lets have a duel.

So they did it, ya know, and there was a lot of music, really, a lot of music, some of it was like the theme from jaws and some wasn't...and then there was;;;;;;; the bull fight.....

First to arrive was King Bart's imperial Bull, gleaming gold in the sunlight, on his snout a huge sharp silver scimitar. On his head a golden mace.. He was foaming at the mouth ( anyone fancy a beer about now? ) and pawing at the ground. This bull had not been fed for twelve flaming years. This bull was not at peace with the world. this bull wanted to rip the s**t out of anything that moved. This was a mean bull. This bull was so mean --- ( your pick )

So when Queen Colleen's Bull ( I really mean no offence! ) was at last led before the expectant crowd of sages, thymes and lurkers from dotkitco, there was, well, a little disappointed gasp.

Queen Colleen's Bull was rather tiny. Well actually it was *very* tiny. This tiny little miniscule bull. ( some of the more belicose would call him a bullette ) strode carefully almost daintily,
into the arena.

He had a magnificent short kriss on his forhead, but unlike the other, wore hardly any armour plate at all.

The good Meninkabau people looked upon their queen, they looked back at the tiny bull. They looked at each other and they knew they would be enslaved by the fearsome Javanese muslims. Were gonna be slaves, they said amongst themselves.

Colleen, ( for that she has become ) merely smiled.

Evil King Bart ( now you know I gotta be kidding ) said "Let the battle commence."

The two bulls ran towards each other. Tons of heaving bullock on a crash course to glory. Two sharp spears gleaming in the sunlight. Charging. Thunder.

And the little bullock rips the big one open by simply running underneath it. The little bull killed the big bull. Queen Colleen succeeded, this time,. in repelling the Javanese Imperialists. There are lessons here.....


This little Gold Bull weve got here, can easily run under the Big gold Bull. If you think this is the Gold Bull, watch out, youre gonna be ripped in two.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 03:22 - ID#284255)
That's different from the story of two bulls that I know. ( g )
From Oldmans links:
"Greenspan/Yardeni Stock Valuation Model"
"Alan Greenspan, value investor"

Well worth the read but you need 'Acrobat Reader" to view the files.
You have to download them to your hard drive before viewing.

Barnes Stock Market Indicator...
The Barnes Risk Index at Friday's close was 5.92, making the S&P 500 appear overvalued by about 36%. Maximum recommended stock allocation for long term investors is now 64%. ( see equations below )
MB Analysis uses a method devised by Graham and Dodd, and rates the average DJIA stock as 39.5% overvalued ( 4/17/98 ) .
Alston Boyd uses equations by P. Martin and B. McCann to calculate an S&P 500 Value Index.
His chart shows that the stock market is seriously overvalued.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 03:26 - ID#347235)
@ Merrstein
If you want to make threats go to Kitco 2 Coins BArs and Stocks and try it with Swamp Boy, Pierre and Redneck they will open up a bigger can of Whupass than you can handle.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 03:38 - ID#33164)
Thank you Aurator- the Imperial Ball & the little Gold Bull
story raised yet another chuckle ....

'the warriors were brave, they were fearless, they were draped in GOLD, audacious, AURACIOUS warriors.....'

- Shades of Kitco, methinks.

And Bart really is a darling -may he go from strength to strength.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 04:02 - ID#403335)
Oldman-Long Gold On?
Oldman, was the move on 4/3 the catalyst for you to go long gold?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 04:06 - ID#253418)
Can we go up two days in a row??
Farfel's Kitco Confidence Indicator and antoher posters' April 20th cycle low called the $3 turn in gold and the shot back up to 90 in the XAU. Now, its a question if this thing can continue moving. Tonight looks pretty flat. Seems there is a waiting game going on regards the Euro and gold. Can't agree more that whatever the percentage backing ( I think 15% ) it will be presented by Wall Street and the media as bearish, whereas it has to represent a seachange. It will be very interesting to see how the market reacts at that point.

Count me in the bullish camp Farfel
I'm long gold, silver and palladium shares - go metals.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 04:14 - ID#372276)
crazytimes:Ballard fuel cell catalyst
The Ballard H fuel cell uses a Platinum catalytic. Unless they have re-enginered the catalyst for silver, for which I am not aware.

Nonetheless, Ag is the best numbers buy around. If I was a pagan you might say I worship the god...Argentinus.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 04:19 - ID#39828)
The fuse is lit!!!!!!!
Check your POG!!!!! Not here unfortunately. Moving fast. See ya
Sosorry Mr. CHEESEHEAD re exuberance re LHG.AX quote. I will
sharpen up.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 04:20 - ID#255284)
From the 14th Cent to today=======just a blink of the eye
welcome to this life, again. Gee, it's been a while since we've seen the like of you. My, how the centuries fly!

Do tell us the story to your handle, when you have time.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 04:22 - ID#255284)
where? where POG flying?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 04:25 - ID#39828)

(Wed Apr 22 1998 04:29 - ID#255284)
Big Bull's in Cowtown
Thanks. yeeehaaa

(Wed Apr 22 1998 04:43 - ID#255284)
Retired Soldier

Are you in Anchorage? That's not too far from Au_Producer, who is lurking still, methinks. He sent me a gold flake from his Alaskan mine. Awesome!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 04:56 - ID#39828)
Economic Stimulus Package. ACME BRAND. Solution No. 5739 Y

(Wed Apr 22 1998 05:39 - ID#185448)
Re: legal liability
Since we over here are no more allowed to clear disputes with the sabre after slapping the opponents face with a glove, it was necessary to find some other ways of settlement. We call it law. Loudly demanding justice" cannot compensate a lack of knowledge in legal matters. An investment decision based upon false or invalid information is a classical case of error as to the content of the declaration" ( hope the term is correct ) . Thus you have to ascribe it to your own sphere. Any kind of liability can ( here ) only be constructed, if the person, who caused the error, did this in violation of his duties ( ... ) . Now I dont see any kind of duty" in the relations between the posters here on Kitco 1 other than Barts guidelines.

In the light of the above mentioned and claiming my right of free speech I request from any poster/lurker/looney around to take responsibility for his own acting. And dont threat your local astrologer with a law-suit ( BTW - thou shalt also not threat a woodoo-master! ) .


John Disney__A
(Wed Apr 22 1998 05:46 - ID#24135)
Man ... get a grip

(Wed Apr 22 1998 05:51 - ID#411331)
@All: On Tuesday, I bought physical and I am taking delivery. I think the level of gold backing
for the EURO is out, and that caused the Tuesday spike in spot gold. A strong backing of the EURO with gold will put pressure on the US and Canadian dollars. This will cause these nations to raise interest rates.
That will prick the DOW asset bubble, and cause a rotation into gold.
This should happen in early May. Add to this scenario, repatriation of Japanese assets, and the continuing Asian financial meltdown, and May should be an interesting month for goldbugs. Even my financial analyst is buying gold equities, and he sells mutual funds for a living!
Thank you all, and Bart for a most interesting and informative discussion forum.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 05:54 - ID#330175)
@ feelin PARANOID........& Mike (gulp)Sheller
am I one of the two?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 06:07 - ID#255284)
Paranoid in Cape Breton
Paranoid in Paradise

(Wed Apr 22 1998 06:12 - ID#255284)
Nothing NPRMAL about this

"Unfortunately these are NOT NPRMAL times. The place to be now is in GOLD. "

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 22 1998 06:26 - ID#347447)
You are certainly not one of the two. Or even three of the four. Lovely Red sunrise here this morning. Can't wait til global warming brings the ocean shore to my front yard too.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 22 1998 06:28 - ID#347447)
you mean GPLD, don't you?

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 22 1998 06:33 - ID#347447)
My Ode to Kitco (to the tune of)
Biblical Scriptures with Jesus and Moses
Fishes and Chipses and bright red clown noses
Aurator's nonesense that makes English sing
these are a few of my favorite things

RJ and metals trading and clinking
oris and Disney grumbling and drinking
people who turn maple leafs into thumb rings
these are a few of my favorite things

making predictions brother to brother
unravelling wisdom from farfel and another
contemplating mozel till my brain starts to ping
these are a few of my favorite things

When LGB bites
When the hep-rat stings
when I'm feeling sad
I simply remember my favorite things
and then I don't feel so bad

Dad's lovely poems on Antipodean mornings
eyes glazing over, scrolling and yawning
one last quick post to answer the zings
these are a few of my favorite things

Guys who play fiddles and kayak in oceans
folks who make money or go through the motions
advice and opinion from beggars and kings
these are a few of my favorite things

musicians with oil wells and standers on shoulders
people getting rocks off crushing up boulders
a great golden forum where everyone brings
these are a few of my favorite things

when the pickles are gone
when the vodka's low
when I'm feeling sad
I simply remember my favorite things
and then I don't feel so bad

I could go on, but you all know what I mean

(Wed Apr 22 1998 06:33 - ID#240120)
Spot Bullion ($ per Troy Ounce) - Delayed 20 mins
Gold Bid 311.65 Ask 312.15

(Wed Apr 22 1998 06:35 - ID#341189)
IMF funding in big trouble in US congress.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 06:36 - ID#255284)
Gastrologer man
Do I?

Do ya think M# the unutterable is talkin about my massive short with 'ric as counter-party? BTW I can see your red eyes from here. Ooops. my mistake their mine

If ya got no mail, you need the Kitco commando team to sort out your ISP. Already blooded, the KCT is at your bidding.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 06:38 - ID#30116)
This mountain view is for you...

(Wed Apr 22 1998 06:38 - ID#185448)
Hi, aurator, my very best wishes escort you.

With bullish compliments
(Wed Apr 22 1998 06:40 - ID#434108)
Tanks for poem, Mike. What's going on with gold & xau? Is a new
bull chapter about to begin? ( goldfevr/David )

(Wed Apr 22 1998 06:42 - ID#255284)
Mike Sheller

Oh, you have excelled already today! Brabo!

Favourite things..

I wish all kitcoites safe passage through the day


(Wed Apr 22 1998 06:46 - ID#284255)
@ Mike
You deserve a standing ovation for that brilliant ditty.
Now if we all digged hard for Barts 'Mounty' Kitty,
And we all bought piles of gold, so, so very much,
I've a guess gold will fly up, but that's just a hunch.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 06:52 - ID#330175)
Paracious in NZ-------Panda------------Mike Sheller-----June Gold up a buck
G'nite matey~~~~~Panda:nice view & warm too,huh..~~~~Mike S.:I'm glad ta hear the ocean is movin to you

(Wed Apr 22 1998 06:54 - ID#413109)
A Poet Yet!?!
Mike you never cease to amaze- star gazing, chart following, writing
family, work and now poetry- WOW what a guy. Oh I forgot, art critic too.

Bully Beef
(Wed Apr 22 1998 06:57 - ID#259282)
I don't know about you but, " I Feel Good..."
Gold won't plummet again for a decade and has posted returns like one would expect on Wall Street for the last three months. I feel secure in this investment. This is a buy signal! ( Shellers note goes here. )

(Wed Apr 22 1998 07:00 - ID#238295)
Steve; Thanks for the info on he speakers at that conference! Many interesting theories on what will trigger the bull's demise.

Oldman: Glad to see you posting here again! Gold does indeed tend to move up together with stocks during the final phase of a bull run. But when the golden bull gets going, the stock bull isn't too far from the cliff.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 22 1998 07:04 - ID#347447)
panda, goldfevr
panda: thanks for the refreshing mountaintop view. I needed SOMETHING to clear my head. The only way I could get much higher would be to visit Ted.

goldfevr: Yes, I think the bottom in gold is in. My strategy for Astrological Investor readers, and actually since 1995 when I called for lows in '97 and a final low in gold in fall/winter of '97, was to dollar cost average bullion. I would still reccommend that mode. It was meant as a suggestion for people who were conservative and careful with their money ( as opposed to us here who throw it away ) , but deserved an investment that would prove itself over a long period. ( I am essentially a contrarian anyhow ) . I really think gold is the PEOPLE's investment right now, and I would love to see everyone have some at this critical juncture in economic history. BTW - the Astrological Investor is a free Journalism service, NOT a paid advisory, so I have no fiduciary responsibility other than to inform and entertain from my point of view.
Nevertheless, I was dead serious, and always am when I look at a stock or a horoscope, and I think everything I saw for this phase in gold has come to pass. As far as gold is concerned, I believe I have done right by my readers. Now it will be interesting to see the character of the coming bull. The early base on the price chart will probably disclose clues to some of our astute Kitco technicians. Keep dollar cost averaging bullion, at least up til' $350, maybe $400. I think an average price of $325 through the past 18 months is a comfortable long term position. Gold will be in the thousands of dollars per ounce in the next decade, and silver will be the monster star from 2003-2006. These will give coin and bullion holders SOME protection from what may be coming fundamentally, and that is what people, average people, really need.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 07:10 - ID#330175)
@ Mike S...............and gettin PARANOID again
what do YOU mean by that,huh?~~~~~~bbMl

(Wed Apr 22 1998 07:12 - ID#238295)
JSE gold index up 5% this morning.

I am agnostic is to whether we are near the final stock peak now or will get one more monster run this summer. If this upcoming correction is mild and the samll caps hold up well, then a final huge run would be very probable. Despite improved performance of late, we haven't yet had the kind of small cap blowoff that often occurs in the final stages of bull markets.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 07:23 - ID#57232)
Big gold bull and little gold bull
Mike S: Thanks for the Kitco poetic contribution -- The R and H music I added mentally. Forget who was the songster -- Rodgers? or was it Hammerstein?

aurator: Appreciate your big and little gold bull. The little one is more dangerous in real life, too, because it is the one before the market falls. And, the little one ( as Oldman is saying ) is likely to be strongest when the equities markets are at the end of their trend.

Beware the gold bug Tsunami -- in fact the higher it gets, the greater risk of a crash, when it hits the beach along with our old equities bull.

After the equities crash, whenever it comes - gold will shine even more. Then the big gold bull will reign.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 07:34 - ID#57232)
Equities market peak now or later?
Old Gold: Taking a few words from an individual we both respect, this 'old equities bull will not end without a fight'. So the odds are strongly against anything except a correction until the fall. Come leaf season, the odds increase, but are probably even higher in the fall of 1999.

The part I have most trouble with, is that the strongest mini-gold bull is most likely just before the big equities bull's demise. It will take alot of agility for the Kitco gold bug to ride the 'big one' toward the beach. I know I will try.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 07:35 - ID#36965)
Joke of the morn
Hey, Ted, Mike, Reify and all. I think we goldbugs will have our chance at smugness soon. I have take a lot of grief at work from my astute associates who have wallowed in paper until they are covered with ink residue. Speaking of wallowing and paying the price here's my joke of the day.

A missionary who had spent years showing a tribe of natives how
to farm and build things to be self-sufficient gets word that he
is to return home.

He realizes that the one thing he never taught the natives was
how to speak English, so he takes the chief and starts walking in
the forest. He points to a tree and says to the chief, "This is
a tree."

The chief looks at the tree and grunts, "Tree." The missionary
is pleased with the response.

They walk a little farther and the padre points to a rock and
says, "This is a rock."

Hearing this, the chief looks and grunts, "Rock."

The padre is really getting enthusiastic about the results when
he hears a rustling in the bushes. As he peeks over the top, he
sees a couple in the midst of heavy romantic activity. The padre
is really flustered and quickly responds, "Riding a bike."

The chief looks at the couple briefly, pulls out his blow gun and
kills them. The padre goes ballistic and yells at the chief that
he has spent years teaching the tribe how to be civilized and
kind to each other, so how could he just kill these people in
cold blood that way?

The chief replied, "My bike."

(Wed Apr 22 1998 07:41 - ID#57232)
Trouble in Russia ahead? Another leadership crisis.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 07:46 - ID#252391)
To: Mike Sheller "Monstor Star"
Like your optomism or the look of your charts which you say suggest silver will be the Monstor Star in 2005 - I can live with that - I presume we'll see silver over $6.50 sometime by then unless there is a killer deflation and silver isthe only thing to hold its value.

All kidding aside I sure hope you are right. Thanks for the upbeat way to end the day.

Go Silver Little Little Little Star how I wonder . . ..

(Wed Apr 22 1998 07:48 - ID#57232)
The Real Reason Bill Gates will win the Win 95 lawsuit
The Courta are too slow to keep up.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 07:49 - ID#286199)
The real reason for Gold's rally

(Wed Apr 22 1998 07:50 - ID#57232)
Sorry --
Courta should have been courts in last post. Hope things go well for everyone today!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 07:55 - ID#252391)
Farfel: Put me in the Monster Star category
Sign me up as a bull tonight in your Kitco confidence survey. The smarter side of this gent bought SSC at the low today and now the more astute among us has given me an upside time target of 2006. Silver the Monster Star of the new decade. Heck you have to believe something - where do we find Ted.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 07:56 - ID#57232)
Reason for gold rally
Speed: I think you have it. We must not forget that we have many factors that will push up gold, one of the most significant being the Euro launch. What better fanfare for the Euro launch than to make a big thing out of transferring tonnes of gold to the new European bank. It will be easy for Germany, since Germany is likely to call the shots anyway.

I wonder what the anti-gold spinmeisters will think of next in their counterattack.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 08:07 - ID#238295)
JTF: Gold and gold tocks will be A LOT higher before we have to worry about a serious decline.

Oldman: I think you will appreciate this. A novel way to fix Social Security.


A foundation dedicated to the study of monetary history, monetary theory and monetary
reform. Stephen Zarlenga director.

IMF Bailout? - NO, not again - IMF Buyout? MAYBE.

1997-8, and we are presented with still another example, of the banking and exchange
community's irresponsible behaviour in loaning and investing US generated credits into
unstable Asian markets. Considering the far reaching potential negative effects; and the
manner in which this was done; and its chronic repitition; perhaps it should also be
described as stupid, and even genocidal behavior in a frenzied search for un-earned

Operating under cover of free market theories, and made confident by their experience
of the gullible support or acquiescence of Ayn Rand's delinquent children ( a.k.a. the
"libertarians" ) , the financial malefactors are up to their old game:

"Force the American taxpayers to bail us out again, ( with profits of course ) or the new
mess we've created may bring down the world's financial systems, taking the lives of
hundreds of thousands in the process."

Greenspan and Rubin, that much over-rated duo, have had their way with the U.S.
financial system for years, and their policies have continued to concentrate government
generated wealth, into the hands of the super rich. ( Thats a fair way to describe a
retroactive capital gains tax cut in which about 28 out of $32 billion in cuts, goes to
persons with over $300,000 annual income )

It would be wishful thinking to expect a bailout plan promoted by these fellows to
advance a just solution of the problem. From what source or tradition would they draw
their ideas of justice? Concepts of Morality have been purposely removed from economic
training for decades in America; and for over 2 1/2 centuries in England. Some
economists are actually proud of the removal of what they consider "normative" values
from their "science."

At some desperate point, the right strategy in the quest for a decent monetary system
may include letting the financial community destroy itself in one of their recurring self
created crises.

Two effects would be:

First the general population of the world would suffer grievously, while the miscreant
bankers/brokers were relatively insulated by their years of accumulated loot.

Second, as after the great depression ( re-read Roosevelt's 1933 innauguration speech ) ,
their free market cover theories would be widely seen for what they in large part,
historically have been:

plausible sounding tools of sophistry, designed to maintain a diseased monetary order.
Conclusions derived theoretically from faulty premises, in which the nature of money is
always misdefined. A system of economic rules which somehow always manage to
continue concentrating money and power into the hands of the plutocracy, at the expense
of society in general.

It would take decades for their propaganda apparatus to rebuild the public image of their
primitive form of capitalism - "savage capitalism" - as Pope John Paul II, calls it. During
that hiatus, with the help of developing knowledge in this area, and the INTERNET tool,
their "errors" can be exposed and defeated.

At this time however, AMI is not ready to suggest allowing the world's economies to
slide into convulsion just because the bankers deserve it. However there is no reason to
save them harmless, and accept another bailout for the bankers, and other corporate

Perhaps something more along the lines of a buyout is in order; and we put forward
some ideas for discussion:

1 ) An accounting and general publication of which banking and corporate establishments
are involved; for how much; who in those organizations approved the bad
loans/investments; What has happened to them? Are their bosses influential in the IMF?

2 ) Rapid publication of which major speculative trading groups have contributed to the
crisis, by shorting the Asian currencies. Which correspondent firms and which US
clearing houses assisted their activities.

3 ) A consideration of ex post facto legislation to recover those billions of dollars in ill
gotten gains, in order to apply them to help resolve the crisis. Thanks to
computerization, this would not be difficult.

4 ) Benefits which US provided funds gives to banks or corporations ( via the IMF or
through the US Treasury ) shouldn't be a gift or loan, but a purchase of the company's
equity, at some adjusted price; perhaps the lowest price of the past 48 months. The
Government should end up owning at least whatever part of the bank or company's
equity, which the buyout funds represented; with full voting rights.

Put the shares into a special Government account from which the income goes toward
Social Security, medicare or to college scholarships.

Its time to stop giving the banks sweetheart deals which provide no incentive to avoid
such future problems.

The crisis sheds some light on Corporate America's international strategy. Many have
watched in wonder as American workers have been fired from well paid manufacturing
jobs, and pointed out that this was reducing the market among Americans for the goods
produced by the corporations. The crisis shows they preferred to develop their markets
outside the US, and also to invest in subsidiaries there. They thus purchased labor at the
cheap rates often available in foreign countries where labor has minimal rights.

This had ( they thought ) the political benefit of suppressing labor in the US, reducing US
wage levels, and reducing labor's political power. But playing with underdeveloped
markets, there was a greater risk of default on the moneys due to these organizations.
These groups are the loudest exponents of "Laissez faire"; free market views which
would dictate that they now suffer their losses.

But Laissez faire was not meant to be followed by them; but to be used as an argument
for harming labor and for constricting government - the main organization capable of
protecting the common good from the corporate predators.

Real world events would suggest a large upward adjustment in US wage rates, as
compensation for the stable political situation which labor in large part, provides here;
and for paying for the military machine which international corporate activity depends

The corporate attempt to be bailed out of their errors, in the same year that they have
agitated to cut welfare benefits to the truly needy, is despicable. Their attempt to have
the same American workers they are attacking, bail out their corporate greed and
stupidity shows the complete bankruptcy of their philosophy, as well as their management
methods, and the depravity of their soul-less existence. Lobbying furtively for assistance
from the government they continually denigrate as impotent, attests to the unfathomable
depth of their hypocrisy.

It should not be allowed.

Voyeur Professor
(Wed Apr 22 1998 08:12 - ID#231101)
June gold price

Despite Kitco's dispair, CBS shows June gold at $113.50!

It is interesting to see the mood swings by Kitco participants on gold. They change faster than a baby's bottom. Last weekend many here were predicting gold at $275. Too much despair; too much optimism. I'm looking for $350 gold by the end of the year, without a Dow crash or global apocalypse.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 08:18 - ID#66136)
Positive report out by Gold Fields and MLynch gives Harmony intermediate upgrade

(Wed Apr 22 1998 08:25 - ID#301318)
Gold @ $315.10

(Wed Apr 22 1998 08:30 - ID#31868)
ALRIGHT! That does it Sheller...
Picking on TED!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 08:31 - ID#210114)
Where is the Current Spot Price?
Kitco seems to have jammed up

(Wed Apr 22 1998 08:38 - ID#243166)
I think we're getting a blowoff now in the internet stocks. This is the sector of highest speculative activity and will therefore signal a top for the entire market. I doubt you'll see much above 9500 on the Dow, if that. Gold is heating up to much and making the boys a little uncomfortable.

As to why gold is goin up. Check out the lastest issue of Slime ( Time ) magazine. When Big Brother controls ALL our money; what is left? GOLD.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 08:43 - ID#36156)
This is no time for Preacher to be away...
I sure do miss his commentary.

HenryD - Go Go Go Gold!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 08:45 - ID#289357)
buff @ HMGCY

Nice move coming today on Harmony.

Pre-opening best bid at 5 3/16, up from 4 7/8 on

(Wed Apr 22 1998 08:46 - ID#286199)
Strong rally in S.A. Golds^JGAI&d=t

New 52-week high and climbing. GO GOLD!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 08:47 - ID#26669)
spock re prices

(Wed Apr 22 1998 08:47 - ID#340459)
@All, Gentlemen, Which are the good stocks to buy today under 10 Dollars, your advice will be
greatly appreciated.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 08:54 - ID#210114)
Thanx 223

(Wed Apr 22 1998 08:56 - ID#289357)
Midas at Gold stocks under $10

I assume you mean buy and hold for a while. Looks like DROOY is ready to emerge sharply from an inverse head-shoulders bottom pattern - the move up should be similar in slope to the big fall.

Others to look at are ALTA, GLG, MKAU, HGMCY. RANGY is not showing much yet, in spite of the potential there..

(Wed Apr 22 1998 08:58 - ID#410114)
if gold breaks $317, it will go to $333 in a blink

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:00 - ID#17796)
Current gold price-try It's the mirror site. Tom

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:00 - ID#333127)
to Midas
I've been looking at RYO and SSC as both being a turn around situation. You pays your money and takes your chances

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:01 - ID#258427)
BART at KITCO...can you do something
about getting the frames spot updating puleeeeaaaasssseeee.

Thanks... ( maybe I'll buy some more Mounties!! :: ) )

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:03 - ID#243166)
If you want a North American producer, BMG has one of the lowest production costs and a good looking chart.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:05 - ID#31868)
Midas_A -
ERHC TTRIF ITRO NASDAQ, dive in with both hands!!!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:08 - ID#258427)
Spot Pallidum up $30 BIG BUCKS
Wonder what SSC is going to do today?? :: ) )

Lan Man
(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:10 - ID#320108)
@Midas - my 2cents worth
Do you want to know what stox we are bidding for or that we already own : ) Besides DROOY, HGMCY, RANGY there is GSR & GRERF. Watch the later two move when the funds start to buy.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:13 - ID#258427)
Palladium...Palladium...see I do know how to spell it

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:13 - ID#36156)
Gold Spot at $312.80, up $1.60

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:13 - ID#320376)
Contrarian words of wisdom? From Robert Samuelson
1998 a lot like 1929


(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:15 - ID#340459)
@ALL, Thanks for the Tips..... May we all prosper together....

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:19 - ID#258427)
We should also note this morning that...
Gold is up srongly ( spot and futures ) AGAINST A STRONG DOLLAR!!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:22 - ID#307271)
These horses will run: CRRS ALTA DROOY MDG DAY TVX AU ASL ( Ooops! This jumped through 10 yesterday. ) Also one of my favorite holdings is FSCNY.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:31 - ID#344308)

the japans......leading the way for paper.

i've added another condensed nomer for this site.....idcisaft.

i don't care, i'm slapping a furrystein today!...and it was good.
idcisaft.................that, and pog is good.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:33 - ID#185448)
Not to forget my favourite aussie junior-explorers: SPX LEO LAF. Worth a watch em!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:35 - ID#316193)
Latest Tricks From Yen Land

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:38 - ID#344308)

intra-day indicies from vronsky's site......

ok.....who has is sending gold flakes to
selected kitcoites? iwmgft!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:38 - ID#342315)
aurator re your 04:43
Can you email me about the Alaskan mine? My new email is cdevoto@abtsnet. Many thanx Charlie

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:40 - ID#36156)
Gold at $312.10, up $.90

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:42 - ID#240120)
Alpha & Omega
Alpha: To every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.... right ?

Omega: Eh... yeh, right !

Alpha: What then is the opposite reaction to positive interest rates ?

Omega: Eh.... negative interest rates.

Alpha: But negative interest rates do not exist in this paper-money system..... right ?

Omega: Eh..... not quite. Negative interest rates have occurred but only for brief periods of time. ( e.g. Swiss franc short term rates in the late 1980's )

Alpha: Ok fine, so with virtually non-existant negative interest rates, how does the opposite of positive interest rates reveal itself ?

Omega: Eh..... good question......mmm....... I'm not exactly sure but maybe in the form of inflation and deflation and all those kinda things.

Alpha: But inflation and deflation are BAD for the system.... right ?

Omega: Eh.... yeh, I guess so, inflation and deflation are bad for the system.

Alpha: So surely a system without interest rates would be better... right ?

Omega: Eh..... yeh, maybe.

Alpha: I mean isn't this what all those intelligent gentlemen have been saying all along..... that a system based on usury and interest rates is ultimately doomed ?

Omega: Eh..... yeh, that's what they reckon.

Alpha: And more importantly what about the Bible ! The Bible also relays this same message.... right ?

Omega: Eh....... yes it does.

Alpha: I mean it would be pretty dumb to say that the Bible was wrong ... right ??

Omega: Eh..... yeh, pretty dumb.

Alpha: Well, I heard from somebody that gold was a form of money that had NO interest rates attached. Is this so ?

Omega: Eh... well not exactly. It seems that it is possible to lease gold at low interest rates.

Alpha: Oh yeh, you are right, I forgot. That someone also said that the central banks leased gold. He said they had created a paper gold market to keep the price down and to create the illusion that gold was a commodity. This way they could obtain very cheap, 'subsidised' oil from the middle-east in the 'oil for gold' deals because certain middle-eastern parties wanted gold as part-payment for their oil. The odd thing was that these parties were so generous that they allowed these deals to occur using a secretly agreed price of around US$1,000 per ounce. Did you know about this ?

Omega: Wow ! No, I hadn't heard. Sounds like you know more about this than I do. But why use a secret price that was way higher than the real market price ?

Alpha: Well I ask you, WHAT IS the real market price of gold ? Anyway according to this gentleman he said that as the oil market was vastly larger than the gold market, this deal would not only ensure that the gold price remained stable but would also enable the west to purchase 'gold-subsidised' cheap oil. A nice deal so to speak. Are you with me ?

Omega: Eh.... yeh, I'm with you pal.

Alpha: But, according to this gentleman, the problem is that the western parties, thinking that gold would always be readilly available, created a paper market that had now dangerously out-grown the physical market. He said it was only a matter of time before this problem would reveal itself. Do you understand ?

Omega: Eh... yeh, I gotcha. But surely gold IS readily available from all the mines around the world ?

Alpha: Yes true ! BUT don't forget what we started talking about here: "that a system based on usury and interest is ultimately doomed" Once the paper-money and the paper-gold problems start to unravel there will be a rush to buy physical gold at a fast and furious pace. Put simply, the supply of gold will be miniscule when compared to the DEMAND. Are you with me ?

Omega: Yeh, sure I'm with you. But what happens then ?

Alpha: Well, who knows............. maybe that'll be the dawning of a new golden era. I kinda hope so. I kinda think so.

Omega: Yeh buddy, I think so too.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:45 - ID#344308)

bart kitner---

is it not time to stop changing the url for vronsky's site
when we paste a link? this is absurd.......

his site should be afforded the same accessibility as all other
links posted. no other links are convoluted after kitco assumes
control of the post. we are not at war with golden-eagle.....
only furrystein's, lawyers, politicians, and edu-crats.


(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:47 - ID#31868)
Mike Sheller - No Sir, did not miss it...
I am reinvigorated, enlivened, each and every time I have the Honor of basking in your thoughts. Such a kindness should reign down on each and every one of us, shoulders that were manufactured to bare/bear the brunt will be made better for having weathered that which is the storm of your mind.

Respect, Honor, willingness to offer up the open hand, forevermore, truthfriend

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:48 - ID#31868)

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:48 - ID#24864)
XAU and AU Info please
All: Could someone kindly post the high the Xau got to on it's run up
about 2 weeks ago. And also post spot/jun gold if you have LIVE prices.
Much Appreciated. John C.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:52 - ID#36156)
Oops, sorry guys, I've been posting the "Ask" spot gold.
But, what the heck ... Bart's got the frames working now...

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:53 - ID#20135)
Excuse me, what happened about all that confidence about Russia delivering the Palladium?

The same press release ( in the guise of news release ) that they have used on gold they tried to use on Palladium. Look at the fundamentals.

Palladium 371.85 UP 32.85 9:52 ( Very Nice ) .

Remember, it can happen to GOLD!!!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:53 - ID#298259)
XAU on April 6 -- 88.89, also date when spot gold hit $314 in the London market.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:54 - ID#33024)

(Wed Apr 22 1998 09:56 - ID#317193)
Shorts-squeeze coming. Tom

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:02 - ID#24864)
Thanks for XAU. What I wanted to check was at what point we had a new
" higher high". It seems to have gone moderately ballistic in the last 20 minutes. I have it at 92.02 at 10:04. So I guess we have a higher high.
Spot/June Gold price anyone please? Thanks.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:05 - ID#252352)
GEO-tse biggest % up so far
Just announced an increase of reserves by 922,000 oz, see press release April15/98, strongly bid now, will likely push through $3.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:05 - ID#348286)
OK boys, 320 TODAY. It won't be a good day for shorts.... GO GOLD.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:07 - ID#427357)

Gold bullion prices are indeed cyclic. In absence of extraneous influences ( war, political unrest in a major area, and/or other international calamities ) , there is a seasonal trend in gold prices.

According to a study made by an internationally recognized financial research organization, "investors should be alert to the seasonality in gold prices." The study covered the 13-year period from 1982 through 19994 -- basically the major portion of the long bear market, which began in January 1980 when gold futures reached $850 per ounce.

The study results demonstrate bullion prices usually begin the year with first quarter weakness - which is worst in March. This is followed by increased strength in the price to August, when gold begins its second weakest month. Subsequently, the gold price trend strengthens to yearend.

The report asserts there may be identifiable reasons for the regularity of the gold cycle. March celebrates the end of the Chinese New Years festivities, the end of the Indian marriage season, and commencement of the Islamic holidays. August weakness is attributed to traditional summer vacation time in Europe. Similarly, the 11 weeks ( three months ) prior to Christmas account for 40% of jewelry sales, meaning good levels of fabrication demand are experienced in September and October, allowing prices to strengthen. And price strength at yearend is also typically "window dressing," since most producers and gold mutual funds use yearend prices for published statement purposes ( Annual Reports to the public ) - and therefore have a vested interest in higher prices, causing prices to be bid up.

Gentlemen, needless to mention the year's weakest month for GOLD just ended ( March ) - albeit bullion prices have ALREADY BEGUN TO RISE. Subsequently, based upon gold's 13-year seasonality study, we should be enjoying higher bullion prices for the next four months. OH, and an added gold price booster will be the announcement by the EMU in May as to amount of gold backing ear-marked for the new Euro. Expert consensus estimates the gold backing will be between 15% to 30% -- with most educated bets on the latter. For the Euro to see the light of day as a weak currency would ensure its STILLBIRTH. Frankly, I credit Europe's financial powers to be with more common-sense. Noteworthy to remember is the fact that Italy's currency is already 30% gold backed, France's currency is 50% gold supported, and if I'm not mistaken the ultra-conservative Swiss Franc 100%. All logic forces one to conclude the Euro will have a very strong gold backing.

CONSEQUENTY, gold mining stocks should indeed appreciate - perhaps even substantially.

History demonstrates that succeeding bull markets always take out its past highs. This one will be no exception. Consequently, when the looming gold bull market progresses to that stage, we will probably see each of the following three securities again reach their March 1997 highs. The expected per cent appreciation of these securities follow. You may verify my figures by going to the websites listed below - just set default parameters for "3-years/weekly and Stochastics for an 8 period, and a Simple Moving Average of 40:

XAU will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs:..Only 21%

FSAGX will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: ....80%

DROOY will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: .270%

RANGY will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: ..480%

Place your bets, Gentlemen

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:08 - ID#317193)
Spot $312.80---up$2.10 @10:04

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:10 - ID#267298)
Could you please tell me where you grt the spot price ?


(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:11 - ID#252352)
GEO-tse Geomaque just took out $3
Another to watch now for a big gain is Viceroy VOY-tse, in good finacnial shape, ready to respond to this market.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:13 - ID#298259)
Money just keeps poring in...NASDAQ share volume...

Strad Master
(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:16 - ID#250297)
Great stuff!!!
MIKE SHELLER: Hey, you're in fine form this morning!!! Full of beans, eh? ( One suggestion: the last line in the next to the last stanza of "My Favorite Things" doesn't work rythmically. But.. I nitpick. ) Loved it. Have to print it out and save it along with your investment disclaimer. Keep those clever posts coming.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:18 - ID#252352)
GEO-tse just took out $3.14, up 20% biggest gain so far of all golds on TSE

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:21 - ID#317193)
Kitco has a mirror site. Bart was kind enough to post the address some time ago See my 9:00 post this morning. Again, when the normal site is not functioning this site usually is operative. Tom

Crystal Ball
(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:21 - ID#287367)
Danger, Will Robinson!
Dear Kitco brothers and sisters: I urge caution here. I know you are all exhilarated with gold's latest foray into the $310 - $315 area and feeling optimistic; however, this is an area of strong resistance which I am afraid will turn gold back. Use this rally as an opportunity to hedge your long PM positions by buying XAU, ABX, or gold puts here. Think of it as insurance. I know I will be ridiculed by some, but I stand by my position. Respectfully, Your humble friend, CB

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:22 - ID#218419)
Hey jimsy. It's finally happening! Keep those posts coming.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:25 - ID#317193)
Crystal Ball-not a bad idea!

John Disney__A
(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:27 - ID#24135)
Harmony will fly now
To all
Got back into some of the Harmony I
sold. Expensive but was surprised by
weak $ move in gold.
Around noon today harmony was bid

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:29 - ID#267298)
EURO Gold Backing

I may be mistaken but my understanding is that in May the major
decision to be announced is that pertaining to which countries
will initially be members of the EMU.

As to the Gold Backing, I seem to remember reading sometime back
that the announcement isn't likely to come until sometime later, possibly July.

Any Comments or Clarification ?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:32 - ID#31868)
Strad Master - Hey! Yo!
Don't be nice to Sheller,he will get used to it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:34 - ID#267298)
Thanks Tom

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:38 - ID#317193)
The wordprocessor now in use at all times. Be nice to me now. Tom bbl

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:44 - ID#284255)
Url to peruse?
Interesting Y2K info @

Year 2000 Press Clippings
Sounds like Camadeus
No less a genius than the redoubtable G.B. Shaw once said:

'I am myself, according to certain ethical systems, labeled liar, coward, thief and so on,' and added, 'And so is everyone else.'
Then qualified the remark by adding, 'And it is my deliberate, cheerful and extremely self-respecting intention to continue to the end of my life deceiving people, avoiding danger, making demands on principles of supply and demand instead of abstract justice, and indulging my appetites whenever circumstances commend such actions to my judgement.'

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:44 - ID#22956)
usually reliable and accurate(relatively) delayed prices....
You must sign up but it is free. We have weather to chat to delayed prices to good charts, etc.

for spot use Barts page or Vronsky's, I don't seem to have problems with the chart page.

good stuff, EH? watch gold sputter and spit and kick and scratch and moan through MASSIVE resistence......bears will be out starting soooon... ( ? ) .


that furrysteen thing seems to have...... ( poof ) .....gone...perhaps he's on the 'blower' to Johny Cochran.....EH? Hide the bloody gloves ( ! ) ...and clean off your Bruno's.....uh huh.

all EB's posts are subject to the, now, infamous "MS disclaimer"...

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:45 - ID#289357)

MKAU + 5.3%
EC0 + 8.0%
RYO + 5.9%
HGMCY + 7.7%
SGOLY + 7.0%

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:47 - ID#317193)

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:53 - ID#31868)
Urwald, Schweitzer and I now deep in thought discussing Tsetes and Mosquitoes, AL, S. had now introduced trypansomes, spellcheck seems far off...

(Wed Apr 22 1998 10:59 - ID#31868)
Yeah, I can spell wright/right, aghhhhhhh, the Pondersoa aghhhhhhhhhh, Hop is singing and, and, and, and, aghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:02 - ID#284255)
Volume blowoff?
Nasdaq volume blow out.
Over 1/3 billion shares traded in 1.5 hours.
With 5 hours to go.
NYSE over 212 million traded.
Amex volume picked up significantly also. - sign of the top?

More people are buying and selling - churning.
Trading activity or anxiety?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:04 - ID#342315)
Vronsky re website
I had to get a new ISP. My new email I can't find your email. Send it and I can now email back. Thanx

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:05 - ID#427357)

Bullion's and Gold Stock Indices performance in recent days herald the NEW GOLD BULL. Nearly all have decisively broken their 200 Day Moving Averages - and on volume. Consequently, it is obvious to everyone, all forms of precious metals investments will OUT-PERFORM the 'paper' markets in 1998. What we need to decide is WHICH securities will provide the highest rate of return. To address this concern I offer the insightful and very timely report authored by the POLARBEAR and John Disney - indisputably one of the world's most knowledgeable experts on South African Gold Stocks, and the political stability of those environs.

Although the incisive report is called " RANDGOLD EXPLORATION," it contains abundant data on three of South Africa's best: Harmony Gold Mines ( HGMCY ) , Durban Deep ( DROOY ) and Randgold Exploration ( RANGY ) . All are traded in the US as ADRs - and are indeed enjoying a good day:

HGMCYUp 7.7%

DROOYUp 6.5%

RANGY.Up 4.4%

The entire report may be read at the following website. Pls notice it will be necessary to delete the space in the URL just in front of the word "-eagle" before pasting it to your Internet locator:

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:14 - ID#427357)

chas, your email address doesn't work. It bounced back to me.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:15 - ID#252352)
GEO-tse Geomaque still the biggest gainer of golds
Up 13.85%, bidding at $3

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:16 - ID#22956)
GO PLAT.....

( see MS 'NOTE' ) ........use above info at own risk...uh huh. watch in awe palladium's skyrocket.... ( wow ) .

efuddled ( nonalcoholic ) befuddlemant ( stupified ) ( huh ) ( ? )

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:20 - ID#22956)
can you say 'head and shoulders'? ( inverted ) ....
and look at it today......I know, it's NOT precious....but it is to me......YES. make a pretty penny

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:22 - ID#197289)
There are excellent articles on the world gold council's site.

EMU and gold - they go together has dates and members etc.

There is a phase in May 98 to Dec 98.

Hope that helps.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:23 - ID#342315)
Vronsky re address
I'll call ISP and let you know. Thanx

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:32 - ID#57232)
Markets, economy trends this month
sharefin: How about volatility index? Are the baby boomers just piling in when the pros are backing out? Sure is hard to tell the trend these days. By the way, did some thinking about Harry Dent's rather glowing portrayal of the DOW bull. There is no question that he is right about the bullish effect of the baby boomers that we have that the Japanese don't have. However, I think he is wrong about the savings bit, though I don't have solid proof since I do not have a good age-dependent savings rate analysis to look at. I think what is happening is that all of the baby boomers are aware subconciously of a slow and steady drop in income relative to expenses. They are getting second jobs or spouse is working to try to main a slipping standard of living, even if it means a reduced savings rate. The GINI index ( I think that is what it is called ) has been dropping steady since about 1965, indicating that the earning power of the backbone of the US economy -- the middle class -- is dropping steadily. The information revolution and the baby boom effect is helping to prop things up -- but without reduced taxation it is likely that we will not be able to avoid our inexorable slippage into debt oblivion.

Incidentally, the Worden Brothers think that technically, Japan is 'overbought'. I think it is really hard for us to determine whether the Japanese are in real trouble, and won't act until they are at the brink, or whether they are about to fall into the brink. They may surprise us. Just think what it would be like if the US ( or Australia ) was at the brink. Would we have the savings reserves to bail ourselves out? Almost certainly not!

I would be interested in what your swing index says now. We may have a correction, but the baby boomers are not likely to give up yet. A european market rally seems more likely now -- any idea how much cash that will suck away?

I guess we need to keep close tabs on the money flow into mutual funds.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:33 - ID#20135)
Futures Contracts
Updated as of: Apr 22, 1998 @ 11:28 am ET

Sym. Company Name Last Change %Chg High Low Vol.

GC M8 June Gold 3138 +12 +0.4 3155 3120 37.0K
SI K8 May Silver 6305 +12 +0.2 6340 6230 14.4K
HG K8 May High Grade Copper 8530 +115 +1.4 8670 8400 3.21K
PL N8 July Platinum 4198 +29 +0.7 4230 4171 1.28K
PA M8 June Palladium 30855 +1200 +4.0 30855 29600 469

Aragorn III
(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:33 - ID#212323)
Look at the 3-day 24 hour spot chart...
Begining at noon in New York, the price fluctuations on the 21st mimicked exactly the fluctuations on the 20th, BUT WERE GREATLY MAGNIFIED. Now, since the start of the day in New York, today's ( 22nd ) fluctuations in price have mimicked exactly those of the 21st, but GREATLY MAGNIFIED. Just allow yourself to envision this trend continuing for the remainder of the day. Smiles for ALL my men!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:34 - ID#339274)
FWIW Copper staging a dramatic recovery ,a flag for higher interest rates
BGO and AZS should perform .

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:39 - ID#24864)
Aragorn III was that an ABC
on the XAU just completed? and off to the races again. Back over 91 again.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:43 - ID#159156)
I also read a month ago that the Europeans had decided to postpone the question of deciding on the gold-backing rate for EMU by 3 months, to sometime in July. ( Some were suggesting 15%-30% backing. ) I, too, am looking for confirmation as a fair number of Kitco-ites are still quoting May as the date. Perhaps I missed an update or retraction...

Anybody know for sure?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:45 - ID#57232)
Short covering
Shouldn't we expect some gold short covering by now? RJ where are you?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:49 - ID#342315)
Vronsky re address
My fault, The correct is thanx

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:52 - ID#252352)
GEO-tse still leading the pack og golds at up 15%

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:52 - ID#194311) don't get it....
Paper will provide the bonfire,
but PM's will provide the FIREWORKS.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:55 - ID#348286)
RJ has been conspicuously absent. I suspect that he is taking a beating on Gold ( short ) .
This is not a time to be short AU, IMO.
320. is around the corner, and then I suspect it will trade on the next big news, how much % AU the ECB will hold. My prediction is 23% Gold in the ECB, but there will be much wrangling over this issue to come.
( The europeans are well known for this ) .
Still should be good news upcomming for AU...........

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:58 - ID#258427)
comex to "take-off" ( please )

(Wed Apr 22 1998 11:58 - ID#340302)
Palladium & Its Lesson for Goldbugs.
Goldbugs should pay particularly close attention to Palladium's recent explosion. It is a harbinger of things to come in the gold market.
Except, unlike Palladium, gold will explode upward at a much faster rate and with exceptionally greater intensity owing to the "financial reserve" premium afforded to it. Analogously, silver will move just as intensely once its notable demand/supply imbalance becomes evident to the world at large. The upcoming equity markets' crises, acting as a spur to gold, will also spur silver with equal intensity. In fact, initially, silver's rise should exceed gold's rise ( Mr. Buffett is certainly very aware of this fact ) owing to its greater populist affordability relative to gold. They are truly brother and sister metals. If you believe in the ultimate value of one, then you should never disparage the other.

Although detractors of gold continously ballyhoo an oversupply of the metal owing to huge excess gold reserves ( above and beyond current global consumption ) held in central banks, the argument will prove to be specious once it is clearly established that the strong central banks are NOT disposing of their reserves. Then gold will have to be evaluated solely in terms of its annual supply/demand imbalance as well as it's currency substitutional value.

For those cynics who state that either the government or COMEX or any other regulatory body will step in to preclude such exponential metal increases, I would suggest they are not so much paranoid as they are naive or, if nothing else, unaware of the Establishment's current financial evolution.

This time, we are not speaking of one family attempting to corner the entire global silver supply ( the Hunts ) . Nor are we speaking of a single nation or individual or family attempting to corral the entire global gold supply. Rather, we are speaking of a host of extremely wealthy individuals, families, and nations slowly but steadily moving into the Precious Metals markets in order to concretize their paper wealth in order to prepare and benefit from the impending First World equities markets' debacles. In other words, soon there will be a significant, substantive, collective, financial Establishment heavily invested in gold & silver rather than any single renegade, opportunistic family, nation, or individual who would threaten such a financial Establishment.

Whether you wish to acknowledge it or not, there truly is a New Gold Paradigm in the works.



(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:03 - ID#348286)

(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:06 - ID#342315)
Aurator re my prev post
I gave you the wrong email. It

(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:06 - ID#194311)
saddle up CowBoy....
ain't room for two of us in this town.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:07 - ID#31876)
On The Economic Side -- Asian Imports Jump 34% at Long Beach

(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:10 - ID#22956)
M.M. = Market Manipulators aka PPT = Plunge Protection Team...spuds?
This is why I love trading about throwin your weight around...


CURRENCIES: The dollar was bid against the mark at the New York

open after several Bundesbank officials quashed growing market

sentiment that German interest rates may rise sooner rather than

later, dealers said. Meanwhile, the dollar lost ground against the

yen as senior Ministry of Finance official Eisuke Sakakibara added

his voice to a growing chorus threatening possible central bank

intervention. Dollar/mark built upward momentum at the open and

started higher at 1.7940 marks, up from 1.7880 at Tuesday's close.

Dollar/yen was lower at 130.55 from 131.25. See Full Story at


can this be bullish for POG?......i will be gone for a time....YES.

go gold... work


(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:13 - ID#433142)
Can anyone tell me what the COMEX gold futures contact maintenance margin now is? I'd heard it had been increased from $1000 to $1350. Thanks.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:18 - ID#347235)
@ Aurator
I am in Fairbanks e-mail smithlm@junocom, get to Anchorage once or twice a yar to shop a Nordstroms, only Decent store for thousand miles
in any direction. FOAD is ols Army saying F**k Off And Die. Appropriate for the guy attacking Mike who I have corresponded with. Don't know about AU-Producer butif he wants to send some flakes sounds good to me!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:19 - ID#22956)
all this speculation regarding RJ....and his shorts........c'mon, the dude knows what to do here........he is knee deep in these markets...and where is gold going anyway... ( ? ) . It ain't tearing up the charts ( ? ) ... Everytime there is a couple 'o buck move for gold we get this gold is gonna sky rocket stuff. It will skyrocket someday....and maybe today....but I don't think its goin go buy Dell like I told ya to...

hM!......stock split short while ago and it's screaming.....I WANT TO GO OVER $100.00!!!!!!! Yahooooo!! really


(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:20 - ID#285121)
The Real gold shorts ?
Folks the ( REAL ) gold shorters have the power to influence CB sales. They can sell to each other and announce only the sale side and no the buy side. Look for another CB sale announcement in my opinion. This chariade will work until the equities tank. Then control will be lost.I believe there will become an ideal time, a few days, or weeks after the first panic to sell BEARX and buy gold shares or USERX, a gold fund that's 40% South African.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:23 - ID#266105)
@Dobie: Work! Maynard: (work??)

A Notable Exception

The exception noted earlier applies to
Federal Reserve notes that have migrated
overseas. Those do represent real seignorage
for the U.S. economy. The Fed estimates that
about two-thirds of the notes outstanding are
in foreign hands. At a cost of a few cents
each, those notes bought foreign goods and
other assets at face value. As long as the
notes remain overseas, those assets are
virtually cost-free. An interesting question
then is: who is the actual beneficiary of
that seignorage?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:25 - ID#373403)
Gold about to explode
Cannot access three day spot chart. This has been the most successful indicator to date of a rise in the POG.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:31 - ID#238295)
Come back RJ
My poking fun at RJ was not meant to drive him from this forum. Nor was it because he was bearish. But his arrogant "know it all" attitude had gotten my blood boiling.

He had indeed been on the money last year when I had been prematurely bullish. But he let his success go to his head and now he has stumbled badly. Hope he learns a little humilty from this as I did last year and comes back soon.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:37 - ID#342315)
Silverbaron, BILLD, SDRer, Allen, JTF et al
Had to change ISP. New email is Thanx

Crystal Ball
(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:40 - ID#287370)
@ Kiwi
Re-read my posts. I am not bearish metals long term. I believe in gold ( not paper ) and own a core position in PHYSICAL precious metals. However, after a significant run-up as we have experienced, it is prudent to HEDGE against a possible correction. When one has an outright long position and then buys PUTS as a hedge, the outright long position is converted to an artificial CALL position, which while still having upside potential as the underlying physical metal ( hopefully ) advances, ameliorates any loss if the price of the physical commmodity happens to recede.
Just ask Glenn- long physical + long put = long call.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:42 - ID#266105)

Can anyone tell me what the COMEX gold futures contact maintenance margin now is? I'd heard it had been increased from $1000 to $1350. Thanks.

Gold COMEX futures-- Initial 1350, maintenance 1000

(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:49 - ID#341261)
Noticed the XAU was making new highs so...
how can this be happening with Kitco still up?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:52 - ID#266105)
@leland/asian imports

Reports have it that the Asian goods are lowered in
price and steaming this way. Overflowing with inventory
before the collapse, doubly so afterwards, the stuff is
being auctioned and loaded aboard. Anecedotal evidence,
Asian steel arriving, stiffly undercutting domestically

Where stock prices ultimately hinge on earnings
and interest rates...

(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:53 - ID#348129)
@AU +2.70 !!!!!
Redapple - very good point, Kitco has to go down and the rally will be confirmed.....

(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:54 - ID#433142)
2BRO2B? Thanks for the margin info.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:58 - ID#348129)
@GC --- HeHeHeHe Like your handle .........
+3.10 .......... AU 320 coming today ???? This could be very explosive.....

(Wed Apr 22 1998 12:58 - ID#266105)
@farfel/one pill makes you larger, the other makes you small...

That dog ain't Hunt! It's a rabbit Warren!!

Aragorn III
(Wed Apr 22 1998 13:01 - ID#212323)
FALLING PRICE WARNING---First hand knowledge!
Price of gold breifly plummets to ZERO in thin I give seven ounces to my beloved parents. Reuters dismissed this as "an unexplained anomoly" which temporarily locked-up COMEX and the Kitco 24hr spot charts. Goldbugs were relieved to discover the markets shrug off this event as gold continued its relentless climb.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 13:03 - ID#288369)
@So I says.....
Kathy, damnit, make all of them "market" orders!....geeze, at least I'll get 'em filled now!!!! I'm a little anxious....vronsky...that's just me don't get too pumped....wait a few minutes gold!!!! WAIT GOLDBUGS!!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 13:04 - ID#246224)
Aragon III @ 7 precious ounces for the most precious of all ..
All is forgiven! Next time keep it out of the public's view, OK? TIA.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 13:04 - ID#31876)
2BRO2B? -- "Asian Imports Steaming This Way"

If you see any news on the COMPOUNDING of what's coming this
way PLUS what isn't being exported on our side, please share.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 13:07 - ID#246224)
We do have chart lock up on Kitco ..
but this move in POG will not be confirmed until the discussion group becomes inaccessible, possibly later today.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 13:09 - ID#238295)
Crystal Ball: You still not realize that the gold paradigm has changed fundamentally as farfel has pointed out again and again. During the bear it was indeed smart to sell all decent rallies quickly.

But times have changed. Enthusiasm in the gold market -- rational or irrational -- still is so far below that of the equities market as not to even be in the same ball park.

Your words of caution might make sense if gold were now pushing $350. But at $315 -- forget it.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 22 1998 13:13 - ID#347447)
crystal ball
I understand what you are saying perfectly. This bull is embryonic at present. There is no one ( noone ) more longterm bullish on gold than me ( and perhaps Vronsky, Arden, Chad Meek and Another ) . Nevertheless, I see resistance at around 319 ( a bit higher than you - the resistance I mean ) . It is conceivable that this rally will be turned back there, and then rising trendline support comes in at around 296 or so. That would have to hold if we are building a base that will launch gold any time soon. If we go thru 319, then 330 is a layup right quick, and the angle of rise and acceleration becomes steeper. More bullish. It would be nice to see a big kickoff, but we may have to build a slow staircase toward our future penthouse paradise for a while.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 13:14 - ID#31876)
Prettiest Site On The WWW

(Wed Apr 22 1998 13:15 - ID#266105)
@leland/asian import invasion

No encompassing data other than latest trade deficit figures.
Just anecdotal snippets from here and there. It takes time for
consequences to play out. There's alot of stuff laying around
over there looking for a new home.

For example, latest Korean auto rebates are out, bigger.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 13:18 - ID#36156)
Leland - Indeed! A sight to behold...

(Wed Apr 22 1998 13:22 - ID#26669)
Servhard re 23:59 post re bismuth and other stuff
You're quite welcome. Somehow in all the excitement today bismuth datagathering is low priority, but having had cancer ( possibly due in part to toxic exposure during my years of brass and bronze casting ) I've a deep appreciation for the potential of such a low toxicity heavy metal for use in lower temp castings. But I have no idea how bismuth related stocks will do. IMHO

All: Wow! Such an exciting day! I don't know what to do to help so will do nothing, trusting to the portfolio autopilot at this point.

All the black bean lovers: Would it work to substitute lamb or chicken for the neck bones?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 13:27 - ID#426220)

The Johannesburg All-GOLD Index has CONFIRMED the NEW GLOBAL GOLD BULL. The South African Gold Stocks Index just broke a THREE-YEAR LONG DOWNTREND - which began in May 1996.

Undoubtedly, this will POLARIZE the attention of Mutual Fund Portfolio Managers from Boston to Berlin to Bahrain to Beijing -- as they are to the man desperately seeking stocks that have yet not gone stratospheric. There really "ain't' much in any global market today demonstrating real value, but whose market price is not already discounting the HEREAFTER. Subsequently, institutional money will begin to flow into the Gold Shares market worldwide. And as we indicated not too long ago, the total market cap of ALL PUBLICLY TRADED GOLD STOCKS WORLDWIDE is a paltry $80 to $100 billion. Chump change!

As history is prologue, institutions will bid up prices 70-80%, before the sleeping public wakes up to the "newest" high-performance GOLD SECTOR. Consequently, gold share prices will begin to accelerate to upside for some time as John Q. Public chases the soaring prices.

It never ceases to amaze me WHY SOOOO MANY W-A-I-T S-O-O L-O-O-O-O-G to get into under-valued situations especially with history as a guide.

It bears repeating: The South African Gold Stocks Index just broke a THREE-YEAR LONG DOWNTREND - which began in May 1996.

Morning Trading Results:

HGMCYUp 10%
DROOYUp 10%
RANGY.Up 4%

DON'T just do something SIT THERE! ( :- ) )

(Wed Apr 22 1998 13:43 - ID#252150)
Crystal Ball@I believe you are right about 320 resistance
The producers, especially the Ausralians will be locking in over 315.
I sold some ABX & expect to buy it back @ a lower price in the not too distant future.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 13:46 - ID#240120)
G o G o l d
Hi Guys,

After a surprisingly sunny April day in England, it has started to rain and a beautiful RAINBOW has now appeared in the sky. You know what they say about what's at the end of the rainbow....................

(Wed Apr 22 1998 13:48 - ID#342376)
@ All
I'm not having trouble getting on to Kitco. I'm surprised by that. I hope the run up in POG is not too quick. We'd worry about Gold Mining Stocks collaspsing with everything else. If we may say that the Gold Bull got going in April, I believe that date is important to remember in terms of capital gains taxes. 18 months from now is September 99 ( 20% capital gains instead of 28% in USA ) Gold Equities may peak around that time even though POG may continue to rise. Add in Y2K and September-October 99 looks like good time to sell Gold Mining Stocks as ALL stocks may be sold as we get closer to 2000. Of course, all this is premature but I am very optimistic GO GOLD!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 13:48 - ID#324266)
JSE All Gold Index up 6.43% to 1009! I'm seeing instability with internet backbones this morning, with sporadic access problems.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 13:48 - ID#345176)
Preacher, General, and other NA Palladium stock owners, NEWS !!

The company is heading the right way. Good luck all.

Company symbol: PDL.TO ( North American Palladium Ltd. )

(Wed Apr 22 1998 13:52 - ID#246224)
Obligatory Y2K drum beat, then ............... awaaaaaaaaaay, till tonight
Do not believe the window dressing that companies are putting out to give the impression that they are on top of and in control of this. Most will publish saying they are 'on track' or 'aggressively' fixing the problem. These bland generalities are put offs. Unless a company has completed inventory, assessment and strategizing portions ( approx 7% of the total work required ) they can not properly budget or contract for sufficient services to remediate and test. The budget is the actual signature of real commitment and managerial awareness. Follow the *expenditure* numbers to get the real scoop on 'progress'.

Chase Manhattan Bank filed their required report on Y2K to SEC saying ".. the company has completed three phases for compliance work - inventory, assessment and strategy .." Chase has spent $45 Million and 2.5 years to get to the point of knowing the totality of their problem and having a plan. They have 200 million lines of code to remediate and test.

They must also test every vendor's systems they rely upon ( per FDIC requirement ) . They must complete recoding and begin testing by 31st March 1999 ( per FDIC regulation ) . They must have their most critical systems completely debugged and tested by 30th June 1999 ( FDIC ) .

Put this into perspective:

200 million lines in 12 months.

'Good' performance by code remediation warriors: 100,000 lines per year.

They must have a cadre of 2,000 programmers working non-stop on this project.

Projected budget of $300,000,000 for remediation and testing.

They must compete with all other finacial, banking and insurance interests to hire and retain these people through the project cycle.

Salaries are increasing at approx 5% per month. ( What does this tell you about retention? )

This bank is one of the most public about its efforts. What about the others? What about small to mid-sized banks. What about all other sectors that must compete with banks, insurance and finacial services companies ( those with alot of money ) ? What about the government? What about forgein banks?

There is only US$200 billion or less in cash money in this country. There is US$5.5 TRILLION ( M3 ) in accounts which could at any time can be attempted to convertion into cash. That's a 27+ to 1 ratio, folks.

Just who is going to leave their 'money' in a bank when the herd heads for the exits? I think we need to consider this well before we see lines forming.

Do you have your cash, silver and gold in hand now? If not, then why not? There will come a point when there will be no opportunity to wish you had done differently. This time will come much sooner than 31st Dec 1999. The panics will start in early 1999.

As they say ... 'avoid the rush'.

Cage Rattler
(Wed Apr 22 1998 13:55 - ID#33184)
Fed's Ferguson Warns U.S. Rates Could Rise

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to prevent the world's top economy from overheating unless Asia's crisis dampens the frenzied pace of growth soon, Fed Governor Roger Ferguson said.

In an interview with Reuters, Ferguson said Tuesday domestic demand and the labor market had been so strong over recent months that higher inflation, rather than a slowdown in the rate of growth, now posed the main danger to the buoyant U.S. economy.

"Either Asia will slow the economy to something that is more sustainable or there will have to be some Fed action that will do that," Ferguson said.

"We are clearly above anybody's expectation of what a reasonable growth trend is. We may be in a position where we have above-trend growth which is unsustainable," he added.

His remarks jolted financial markets. Investors said the comments indicated growing concern inside the Fed about the relentless pace of U.S. growth that could prompt the central bank to raise credit costs before too long.

The price of the inflation-sensitive 30-year Treasury bond fell 10/32 to 102-13/32 in late New York trading and its yield, which moves in opposite direction to price, rose to 5.95 percent from 5.92 percent Monday.

"There is a group of people in the Fed that's worried, and if the economy doesn't slow down, it's going to be a problem to them," James Glassman, senior economist at Chase Securities Inc. in New York, said.

The Fed has held interest rates steady for more than a year, and the key overnight federal funds rate stands at 5.5 percent. Its rate-setting council next meets on May 19.

Ferguson, who joined the Fed board last November after a 13-year career as a banking consultant, said policy-makers were eyeing data to be released over the second quarter of the year for "a clearer picture" of economic conditions. But he noted that at least so far, the impact of Asia's turmoil on the U.S. economy had been moderate.

Analysts on average expect the economy to have grown 3.3 percent in the first three months of the year, after it clocked a fiery 3.8 percent for all of 1997.

Characterizing such rates as "probably unsustainable by any reasonable measure," Ferguson warned: "The risk we face now is that Asia will slow us down less than we thought. The risks have moved from being balanced to perhaps being tilted toward the upside."

The Fed last December dropped a bias toward raising rates, adopting a neutral policy stance of keeping rates on hold. The move reflected a belief among most policy-makers at the time that the risks to the economy were balanced, requiring the Fed to keep all its options on the interest rate front open.

With consumer prices rising at a meager 1.4 percent from the same time a year ago, Ferguson said the U.S. economy may well be headed toward price stability. Stable prices and maximum employment together form the Fed's twin mandate.

But he warned it was crucial to "hold on to that victory," particularly since many factors helping to keep inflation low may not last forever.

"You don't have overheating showing up just yet because there are special factors holding down inflation," he said. He did not specify the factors, but policy-makers have previously cited the firm dollar and low commodity prices as contributing to low inflation and strong growth.

The central banker said recent labor market and industrial production data had indicated a somewhat slowing pace of growth but cautioned the numbers were influenced by one-time factors such as freak winter weather and traditionally unstable output data for aircraft.

"You've got to sort out the special factors," he said, adding that overall the first quarter of the year had been stronger than he expected.

Ferguson added it was important to keep in mind that the Fed needed to act in a "forward-looking" manner. Changes in interest rates are generally thought to take up to a year to affect activity in the real economy. The Fed consistently says it must act pre-emptively to fend off inflation dangers.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 13:56 - ID#342315)
Allen re Y2K jobs
I have a young friend who will grad from NC State in less than a year. He is in comp engineering and programming. Have you got any comments on where he can get a good one and possible starting salary? Thanx Charlie

(Wed Apr 22 1998 14:00 - ID#238295)
timing jiggles
There will indeed be reactions on the way up as this gold bull unfolds. There will be strong resistence at $320. It won't be a straight line. But at these price levels the risks of being out are much greater than the risks of being long gold and gold stocks. In other words upside potential is hugely greater than downside risk.

Most of those who try to time every POG and XAU jiggle will be poorer for it. Just like those who tried to time the Dow.

Cage Rattler
(Wed Apr 22 1998 14:02 - ID#33184)
Poor Year 2000 Showing For Largest Companies

By Bruce Caldwell, InformationWeek

A study of financial filings by the nation's 250 largest corporations scuttles any notion that large companies have their year 2000 projects well in hand.

Only 60 percent of companies disclosing year 2000 project information in their Securities and Exchange Commission filings have completed the assessment phase, the first step in preparing a company's systems to handle dates beyond 1999. The study, conducted by Triaxsys Research LLC of Missoula, Mont., also found the total year 2000 expenditure by the 250 companies is expected to be about $33 billion, but only 20 percent of that total has been spent so far, another indication most companies are moving too slowly to address the problem.

Among the companies that discussed risk factors in their year 2000 projects, 45 percent stated adverse material impacts could be suffered if third parties -- partners, suppliers, and government agencies -- fail to complete their year 2000 projects in a timely fashion, while 38 percent said adverse material impacts could result if they do not complete their own year 2000 projects.

What Triaxys found, however, may be only the tip of the iceberg. No information on year 2000 projects was provided by 15 percent of the 250 companies, and 32 percent used such vague language as to leave investors clueless about the status of their projects or the risks involved, noted Steve Hock, president of Triaxsys.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 14:03 - ID#258129)
Dbog, 10:29 - EURO
To my knowledge final decision about structure of external reserves and in particular - Gold share in it is a privilege ECB - after it will be established. There can be different intention statements, press releases, intermediary decisions, etc. but finally - to be announced by ECB. ECB will be a legal body only after all board members ( not only the President ) will be appointed and approved by European Parliament. In other words - final announcement can be done any time between June and December, 31 1998 and not in May.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 14:07 - ID#286230)
Quixotic1 Clairvoyant -- Munk Steps down at Barrick

Munk steps aside as Barrick's chief executive

TORONTO ( CP )  Barrick Gold Corp. has appointed a new president to replace Peter Munk as the company's chief executive.
Canada's biggest gold miner announced today that Paul Melnuk, a Munk associate for more than a decade, will take over as president and CEO immediately.
Munk, who founded the gold producer, will remain chairman and direct the company's overall strategy.
"Paul Melnuk will continue our prudent financial approach and aggressive operational drive," Munk said in a release today. "As chairman, I will remain very much involved in Barrick's
overall strategy and direction." Melnuk, 43, has held senior executive positions with Munk, including president of Horsham Corp., the financier's former holding company and the predecessor of TrizecHahn Corp., Munk's real estate development company.
Since 1992, the Winnipeg-born Melnuk has been president of Clark USA, an oil refiner and gasoline marketer once owned by Horsham.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Apr 22 1998 14:14 - ID#287367)
@ James, Mike Sheller, and Old Gold
Thank you for your comments. May we all be healthy and prosper.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 14:19 - ID#230376)
@ Mike...remember...

the chickenbones don't lie.Loved your poetry...damn, you're good!!!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 14:20 - ID#238295)
Here is why gold is rallying. That German financier who bought a stake a Homesake some months sure knew what he was doing.


Buba seen transferring gold to new Euro central bank

THE Bundesbank, which must provide about one-third of reserves of the new European Central Bank ( ECB ) ,
may decide to transfer most of its share in gold, providing a windfall for the German budget, analysts said.

Such a move would raise public confidence by backing the new currency with gold, and would support gold
prices by reassuring investors the Bundesbank won't sell excess reserves on the market, an analyst said.

In addition, the transfer would be recorded at market prices, whereas the gold is now valued at less than
one-third its market value. That would mean a multibillion-mark paper gain the government could book against

"It would be a neat move," said Alison Cottrell, economist at PaineWebber International in London. "There's
the psychology factor of the ECB holding gold, the government would benefit from a revaluation and it should,
at the very least, put a floor under the gold price."

The European Central Bank will go into operation on Jan 1, the same day the euro becomes the currency for an
expected 11 nations. Germany, because it's the European Union's largest economy and most populous country,
will have to provide about one-third of the 50 billion Ecus ( S$86.5 billion ) the new bank will need in its role to
set monetary policy.

The Bundesbank, Europe's largest holder of gold, has around 95 million ounces, valued on its books at 13.7
billion marks ( S$11.9 billion ) . The market value is about 55 billion marks.

A Bundesbank spokesman wouldn't comment on what the central bank's plans are, saying that won't happen
until the member states for monetary union are named and the members of the European Central Bank are
appointed. -- Bloomberg

(Wed Apr 22 1998 14:23 - ID#410198)
Cage Rattler,Thanks for that,just spoke with Steve Hock,nice guy the problem is real,and he will be
on my show to-morrow 8AM MST

Cage Rattler
(Wed Apr 22 1998 14:25 - ID#33184)
Interesting statistic on deflation

35% of the past 206 years in the U.S. have been accompanied by deflation--an actual decline in asset values, available credit and money supply, and producer and consumer prices.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 14:28 - ID#286279)
I like your song.

All: Just bought more.

IDCIBM soon.

Have a great day!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 14:28 - ID#251166)
Ah ha! HERE's why the POG is rising!

Major Technological Breakthrough In Information Retrieval!

Announcing the new Basic Open-standard Organized Knowledge device

called: BOOK. The BOOK is a revolutionary breakthrough in technology:

no wires, no electric circuits, no batteries, nothing to be connected

or switched on. It's so easy to use even a child can operate it. Just

lift its cover!

Compact and portable, it can be used anywhere - even sitting in an

armchair by the fire - yet it is powerful enough to hold as much

information as a CD-ROM disc. Here's how it works. Each BOOK is

constructed of sequentially numbered sheets of paper ( recyclable ) , each

capable of holding thousands of bits of information. These pages are

locked together with a custom-fit device called a binder which keeps

the sheets in their correct sequence. Opaque Paper Technology ( OPT )

allows manufacturers to use both sides of the sheet, doubling the

information density and cutting costs in half. Experts are divided on

the prospects for further increases in information density; for now

BOOKs with more information simply use more pages. This makes them

thicker and harder to carry, and has drawn some criticism from the

mobile computing crowd.

Each sheet is scanned optically, registering information directly into

your brain. A flick of the finger takes you to the next sheet. The BOOK

may be taken up at any time and used by merely opening it. The BOOK

never crashes and never needs re-booting, though like other display

devices it can become unusable if dropped overboard. The "browse"

feature allows you to move instantly to any sheet, and move forward or

backward as you wish. Many come with an "index" feature, which

pinpoints the exact location of any selected information for instant


An optional "BOOKmark" accessory allows you to open the BOOK to the

exact place you left it in a previous session - even if the BOOK has

been closed. BOOKmarks fit universal design standards; thus, a single

BOOKmark can be used in BOOKs by various manufacturers. Conversely,

numerous BOOKmarkers can be used in a single BOOK if the user wants to

store numerous views at once. The number is limited only by the number

of pages in the BOOK.

You can also make personal notes next to BOOK text entries with an

optional programming tool, the Portable Erasable Nib Cryptic

Intercommunications Language Stylus ( PENCILS ) . Portable, durable, and

affordable, the BOOK is being hailed as the entertainment wave of the

future. The BOOK's appeal seems so certain that thousands of content

creators have committed to the platform. Look for a flood of new titles


(Wed Apr 22 1998 14:30 - ID#230376)
@ EB and/or anyone...

Any speculation as to what happens if palladium roars past platinum? How 'bout it you metalurgists out there?? What's the poop?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 14:37 - ID#340302)
@OLD GOLD...yes, my friend....
...I wish you would have kept it under wraps a little while longer. However, you just discovered the first piece of fundamental good news for gold ( and you ain't seen nothing yet! ) . The broad market will hear about it in a major way by Friday.

Hmmm, I wonder what it means?

A EURO backed by....%?

Let's see:


You better believe it!



(Wed Apr 22 1998 14:38 - ID#289357)
Ersel @ Pt or Pd

For the big demand usage ( catalysts ) , Pt and Pd are mostly interchangeable, and manufacturers will switch to the least expensive material. Palladium also has some electronics applications, & I don't know whether a switch to Pt is possible there.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 14:39 - ID#410198)
Palladium update it has gone past plat 2x1/2 oz Ballerinas paying $610.00 selling $665.00
only problem .....not available

(Wed Apr 22 1998 14:47 - ID#230376)
@ Silverbaron..

thanks... it's gonna be fun!!! an here's some frosting for the cake

(Wed Apr 22 1998 14:52 - ID#288369)
I think it would be fair to say that studio just "flipped out" on the RSA's. Lord John Disney, be with me...amen! GO GOLDBUGS!

Good ol' boy
(Wed Apr 22 1998 14:53 - ID#26362)
A little humor
Howdy all, though that this might brighten everone's spirits along with the little rise in gold:

Actual help desk call:

This is a true story from the WordPerfect help line.
Needless to
say the help desk employee was fired; however, he/she is
suing the WordPerfect organization for "Termination without
Actual dialog of a former Word perfect Customer Support

"Ridge Hall computer assistant; may I help you?"

"Yes, well, I'm having trouble with WordPerfect."

"What sort of trouble?"

"Well, I was just typing along, and all of a sudden the
words went

"Went away?"

"They disappeared."

"Hmm. So what does your screen look like now?"



"It's blank; it won't accept anything when I type."

"Are you still in WordPerfect, or did you get out?"

"How do I tell?"

"Can you see the C: prompt on the screen?"

"What's a sea-prompt?"

"Never mind. Can you move the cursor around on the

"There isn't any cursor: I told you, it won't accept
anything I

"Does your monitor have a power indicator?"

"What's a monitor?"

"It's the thing with the screen on it that looks like a
TV. Does it
have a little light that tells you when it's on?"

"I don't know."

"Well, then look on the back of the monitor and find where
the power
cord goes into it. Can you see that?"

"Yes, I think so."

"Great. Follow the cord to the plug, and tell me if it's
into the wall."

".......Yes, it is."

"When you were behind the monitor, did you notice that
there were
two cables plugged into the back of it, not just one?"


"Well, there are. I need you to look back there again and
find the
other cable."

".......Okay, here it is."

"Follow it for me, and tell me if it's plugged securely
into the
back of your computer."

"I can't reach."

"Uh huh. Well, can you see if it is?"


"Even if you maybe put your knee on something and lean way

"Oh, it's not because I don't have the right angle - it's
it's dark."


"Yes - the office light is off, and the only light I have
is coming
in from the window."

"Well, turn on the office light then."

"I can't."

"No? Why not?"

"Because there's a power outage."

"A power... A power outage? Aha, Okay, we've got it licked
now. Do
you still have the boxes and manuals and packing stuff
computer came in?"

"Well, yes, I keep them in the closet."

"Good. Go get them, and unplug your system and pack it up
just like
it was when you got it. Then take it back to the store
you bought
it from."

"Really? Is it that bad?"

"Yes, I'm afraid it is."

"Well, all right then, I suppose. What do I tell them?"

"Tell them you are too stupid to own a computer."

(Wed Apr 22 1998 14:56 - ID#345176)

This dog got himself the last scraps of SSC today and has a full belly now.
I'll lay in the shade and watch the lions chase the hyennas away.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 14:59 - ID#288369)
@G.O. Boy.....Mike Sheller........
G.O.B.....I'm boxin' mine up now that I know what to do with it....Howdy, Pard! cool story....

Mike....luv' that song...have you signed away your publishing? GO NASDAQ GOLD!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 15:03 - ID#26669)
Silverbaron re Pd vs Pt
My 2 cents worth ( actually only worth 1.6 cents after inflation ) : Platinum, being more inert has usage as an electrode in some unique electrochemical processes. Good example is in some fuel cell technology. But there are various schemes afoot to plate or bond it over a baser metal, ceramic or even plastic substrate, thus reducing the amount needed. Palladium forms a metal hydride which is impossible to replace in some limited applications, absorbing hydrogen in really massive quantities. I've heard that if you could afford to fill up a welding tank with palladium sponge there are some circumstances where you could put more hydrogen in it than in an empty tank, kind of like absorbing ammonia into water. That is if you didn't blow yourself up first. IMHO

Interesting related link:

Disclaimer: Remember, I'm just an investor not a physicist. And if somebody decides to sue me over any of my opinions or discussion here both they and their lawyer can kiss donkey.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 15:09 - ID#320376)
Origins of German Bundesbank revaluation - this action was planned a year ago
This story is from a year ago, at which time the compromise was hammered out ( public knowledge at the time ) that denied the Bundesbank the revaluation in 1997 but specifically stated that the revaluation could/would take place in 1998:

(Wed Apr 22 1998 15:14 - ID#230376)
@ 223 ...

thanks for the info.Have you been threatened by the "Murr" too?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 15:21 - ID#252391)
Monster STar Silver unable to rally two day in a row
The next decades Monster Star - Silver that is - ( read it here on Kitco ) couldn't rally two days in a row - turned back by the rarified air above $6.31.

Move me back over to the caucious bull camp there Farfel. Please note I was filled at the low in SSC yesterday so we are bound to go down first before our rocket to the stars.

Twinkle Twinkle little star - Oh how I wonder why you are so lazy while all about your are frolicking higher. It's a long way to monster star status and failing at $6.31 is not very impressive.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 15:29 - ID#26669)
Ersal, no, that was just a low form of humor but I forgot the little smiley face
In my line of work I'm threatened so often with so many forms of violence and duress that I'm not afraid of a someone who's merely a scattering of electrons in cyberspace.

Here's another link about Pt. As usual merely opinion, etc. :^ )

(Wed Apr 22 1998 15:31 - ID#252150)
Old Gold@Timing the mkts. I don't try to time them perfectly, but I do think that it's prudent to
take a little something off the table from an investment that I'm up close to 50% in less than 4 months. The 315-320 resistance just allows me to rationalize my decision.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 15:36 - ID#230376)
@ 223...Great link!!! Thank you !

223 Wouldn't be your badge number on a silver or gold shield, would it ?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 15:49 - ID#266105)
@use the farce, Luke

Fanaticism-- the redoubling of effort when sight of objective is

lost. George Santanyana. See: Tim McVey

I wonder if that translates to losing sight of objectivity as one's stock portfolio doubled and redoubled.

( annualized ) 1 year 3 year 5 year 10 year

Ave. growth fund 43% 27% 19% 17%

Ave. gold fund -31% -11% -2% -2%

Source: Lipper as of first qtr. ( 3/31/98 )

(Wed Apr 22 1998 15:51 - ID#230376)
@ Mike Sheller....

Hmmmmmmmmmm DOW weak.....Gold strong ! Is the top in for the almighty DOW??? Maybe ? Yesssssss!!!!????

Aragorn III
(Wed Apr 22 1998 15:57 - ID#212323)
Say it isn't so! I was just about to get in again....well, probably not...
A fun article to read...

(Wed Apr 22 1998 15:57 - ID#26669)
Ersal, no. That's a long story and t'would rather change subjects.
As I said before, I'm just a behavioral scientist. I just have some very rough and violent customers, probably one of the reasons I prefer such placid hobbies as sculpture and reading stock reports, yawn.

{For other, more worried lurkers, no I'm not the government informant} :^ )

Here's a fun link for palladium. Remember Pons and Fleichman?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 16:02 - ID#246224)
No suggestions. He'll be vacuumed into a position in seconds. He just needs to be sure he's working for a good company which has decent management and alot of possibility for advancement ( or be a good stepping stone ) . How to find such a company? He should spend alot of time on the professional programming sites on the internet asking for help. This will give him a flavor of what's out there and some good war stories.

I'd suggest that he would be interested in remaining flexible in case Y2K collapses our infrastructure: cash in hand, dependable car, no loans or mortgages, etc. Unfortunately he may get 'drafted' by the government as I believe they may try to exert alot of control over 'resources' if things start disintegrating badly.

Other than all that he's got a bright future ahead of him %-0

(Wed Apr 22 1998 16:06 - ID#410198)
223, come on fess up...... I guess a BLACK HELICOPTER PILOT

(Wed Apr 22 1998 16:06 - ID#280215)
Is this a Farfel April fool joke or is Murrstein serious?
I was scanning old posts and couldn't believe the Murrstein posts. As others have already posted today and months ago, you take people's predictions/analysis for what it is. If you are not doing your own analysis, whether it be fundamental or technical, and are going to invest solely on someone else's advice, then you should be using risk money that you can afford to lose. Who in their right mind would bet the house on the call of a complete stranger. Sure, you may put a little flyer down to take a chance and see if there is any success. Then if the track record is good and the person explains their analysis and you feel comfortable with them, you will put more in. That's the client/broker relationship. Even then, you go in knowing that he/she could be wrong. It's yours and only your decision to invest based on someone else's advice, or your own analysis for that matter. To threathen legal action against someone else for being stupid yourself is ridiculous. Of course, that 's the way things are today with all of the frivolous law suits.

One final comment, I believe the person ( s ) who have given their take to short the market, also gave STOP indicators so that you don't lose the house if you are wrong. Even if there was some dumb law that allowed you to sue in this situation, the fact that STOP information was given is a strike against you. I can;t believe I even commented on this. This was just too ridiculous to ignore. Farfel, are you sure this wasn;t another one of your jokes like the entire COMEX Gold stocks being bought up?

Aragorn III
(Wed Apr 22 1998 16:07 - ID#212323)
Hey there, Allen(USA)
Such does one protect a computer from the dampness involved with NASDAQ trading over a billion shares today?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 16:08 - ID#339274)
FWIW I think we going to have a healthy pullback for a couple
of days to digest the gains before making a run to the 323
and 340.Silver might come along this time.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 16:18 - ID#320376)
Hope for gold foretold in 1974 ....
in this well-written article on international monetary policy:

a quote from that 1974 piece:

" ...the world's monetary affairs are likely to develop along one of the following lines: Upvaluation of gold by the major European countries as part of their efforts to establish an economic and monetary union...."

thoughts from NightWriter:

With the disproportionate share of influence that LDNs ( less-developed nations ) hold in international fora, and their relatively low gold holdings, a world move toward gold would normally be unlikely. It is fortunate, however, for goldbugs ( and possibly for humanity ) that the coalescing of local transnational economic interests is occurring amongst those nations ( the EU ) that have significant AU reserves.

Concurrently, the gold-rich nations of Russia and South Africa have undergone internal political transformations in the past decade that have made them more politically acceptable to the body of nations, thus perhaps rendering more palatable the thought of migration toward a greater role for gold in international monetary affairs. The other gold-rich nation, USofA, politically acceptable or not, is for at least the time being the alpha dog.

Interesting times. Perhaps the insanity of a baseless international monetary system will turn out to have been as fleeting as the morally relative morass of communism.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 16:38 - ID#266110)
@Nighwriter your 16:18 --- Gold fortold in 1974
Could you please repost again. I tried to bring your message up but was unable to do so -- something about being unable to open "".

(Wed Apr 22 1998 16:40 - ID#266110)
@ Nightwriter your 16:18 -- Tried again with failure message....
indicating "www.fame.o" It appears as though you didn't get all of the correct information for the URL listed.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 16:41 - ID#317193)
If you still are lurking about, I remember you posting in the A.M. on February 25 about exchanging bullion for bullion coin on an ask to ask basis, with no additional cost.

Should you have the inclination and the time, would you explain this to me ( and my broker ) . No rush, just looking ahead at possible tax consequences. Can I do this with my futures contracts in any way?

Thanks for the assistance. Tom

(Wed Apr 22 1998 16:48 - ID#287193)
@223 and whosoever...
It so happens that we have somethings in common: sculpture, casting and investing. You have an opinion on investing in comm. only after the front goes to premium? With my goldstock still in the hole, I am looking at the gold futures. ..have to rush away.


(Wed Apr 22 1998 16:48 - ID#228100)
Y2K Issues (and IS Jobs)
Each company has their own definition of completing a Year 2000 Assessment. To most companies, that means that theyve appointed a manager to investigate the issue. To another company, it means that theyve identified everything that will be tested and fixed.

An open question: DOES ANYONE KNOW ONE COMPANY that is ready for Year 2000? If this isnt going to be a huge disaster, why doesnt one company come forward and say that their systems are ready?

Chas: Dont let your young friend waste any time looking for a job. Have him post his resume and telephone on a number of the headhunter web sites. Be sure that his resume contains the buzz words that the recruiters scan for ( I would like to obtain experience with COBOL, UNIX, C++, mainframe, Windows NT, Oracle or whatever... ) , and that he includes his phone number. He will receive HUNDREDS of calls. Contact me if you would like a list:

Make certain that he keeps a list of those sites, along with any passwords. Since his phone will keep ringing, he will probably want to go back and delete his resume after he finds a job.

Allen ( USA ) Excellent prespective regarding the government stepping-in to ration IS resources for Y2K. I remember a story from the Vietnam war era. The army had plenty of physicians that specialized in trauma such as bullet and bomb wounds. They had so many soldiers injured in Vietnam by burns ( napalm? ) , that they DRAFTED a 50 year old physician from Massachusetts that specialized in trauma care for burn victims.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 16:58 - ID#57232)
German gold sales planned to Euro CB - Food for thought.
OldGold, Farfel: You should give the credit to Speed early this AM for spotting the good news about the Bundesbankpanning to sell their gold to the Euro. Good timing! Now another piece of good news is that the gold will be sold at the 'going rate' so that Germany can generate much needed liquidity without having to lower interest rates. They are actually talking about rasing them.

Question to you all -- just what will be the price that Germany asks for? The official rate of about 310/oz US, or will it be much higher? If you want something really bullish, how about finding that Germany got $400/oz or similar price! That did happen at the end of the last gold war in the 70's ( forgot exact date ) and it could happen again!

We should all be on the lookout for details concerning this sale, and calculate the value per ounce. My guess is that it will be before the official launching of the Euro on 1/1/99, but I really don't know.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 17:03 - ID#410198)
Year 2000,check out post by Cage Rattler 14.02 and my responce

(Wed Apr 22 1998 17:11 - ID#410198)
Talking about Y2K and Euro could this be the crisis needed for World Government

(Wed Apr 22 1998 17:27 - ID#344290)
German Gold To The ECU - - Maybe a small amount
A recent article's theme was that Germany was to hold their gold in case there's a giitch in ECU, I forgot the scource. Might pay to see official announcement on this one.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 17:28 - ID#240120)
Yet another CC
Apparently some banks out there are currently considering the introduction of a new credit card...... The Palladium Card

(Wed Apr 22 1998 17:47 - ID#316193)
Note Comment, "Gold has climbed on continued strong fund buying."

(Wed Apr 22 1998 17:48 - ID#287193)
@Crunch- go direct. ...I found nothing new....
The Germans keep their gold and U.S.$ in the USOA.


Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 22 1998 17:50 - ID#347447)
Jonesy, 223
Jonesy: BOOK...what a concept!

223: Your profession a marvelously fertile ground for astrological research. If you want to kick it around, e-me. Otherwise, don't let violent "clients" kick YOU around ( too much ) . ( ;- )

(Wed Apr 22 1998 17:52 - ID#368244)
One world Government

I guess Another was talking about a one World Government! Heaven help us all!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 17:53 - ID#316193)
Steven Kaplan Urges Caution -- Suggests Hedging

(Wed Apr 22 1998 17:54 - ID#288369)
@Lord John Disney.......
Considering current share prices, how would you rate the following in value? HGMCY, DROOY, RANGY and AGOLY? Why is Rangy asleep? Thank you very much and if Murrstein has got us bugged, please e.mail me a short ranking list, I do appreciate your work, sir.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 18:03 - ID#28994)
Why is there a time each evening, when the markets are open but there
is no action.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 18:04 - ID#255151)
New Word to the Kitco Lexicon

There was "Brabo!" and "speach". Now, if you ever get threatened with legal action, you've been "Murred". Mr. Murr may wish to check this out--

(Wed Apr 22 1998 18:07 - ID#255151)
Try again

Don't Murr me, but I entered the wrong URL. Here--

Bill Buckler
(Wed Apr 22 1998 18:11 - ID#256381)
$A - $US Gold Comparison
The "lead indicator" role played by the $A Gold price has been very useful indeed thus far in Gold's move back above $US 300.

Actually, the first "signal" I got on any of my charts that Gold might be nearing a bottom was given back on December 16, 1997 when the $A Gold price jumped after having hit a low which almost precisely duplicated its low back in July 1997, just after the RBA Gold sale announcement.

Since then, every move on the $US Gold price with the notable exception of the actual Jan 12, 1998 low has been signalled in advance by the $A Gold chart. The latest signal came two weeks ago when the $A Gold chart formed a big "breakaway gap".

Gold has now broken through its post 1996 downtrend on every major currency chart, INCLUDING the $US chart.

I have updated the $A-$US Gold comparison chart on my website.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 18:12 - ID#340302)
F*'s Evaluation of the GOLD & SILVER MARKET...
Once again, gold turned in an encouraging performance, rising somewhat on increasing volumes. With respect to volumes, in order to put things in perspective, then it should be noted that the % increase in gold stocks volume today was far outweighed by the % increase in NASDAQ volume. In other words, increased gold volume ( led primarily by non-traditional goldbugs ) was at best a mirror of overall increased market volume. This fact lends credence to the fact that there is in no, way, shape or form any undue exuberance in the gold market today. Furthermore, in keeping with the hit & run mentality of goldbugs, most XAU stocks retreated just before the close of trading as many goldbugs rushed in to cash out profits, fully disbelieving this rally has any legs. Lastly but not leastly, once again a handful of notable senior and junior golds did not experience any noteworthy volumes at all, thus proving that this gold rally is tentative and selective at best.

The Kitco Barometer remains optimistic yet subdued. Not a great abundance of new posters and easy traffic in and out. On the other hand, there are greater numbers of nervous gold shorts ( who shall remain nameless ) posting their increasingly frequent and dire warnings concerning gold's unsustainable rise. Of course, that is because a tremendous short squeeze is in the works. Urgent warnings of huge Australian sell forwards at gold price of 315-320 are the "same old, same old" and are more than unlikely ( Australia's currency has stabilized and the weaker gold producers have completed their urgent forward sales for the year ) .

The Precious Metals Relativity Index has gone way out of whack. Palladium's astronomical rise must inevitably pull both gold and silver up with it, despite any nominal short-term corrections in Palladium's price. Most importantly, Palladium's meteoric climb augurs heightened industrial inflation ( that MUST be announced rather than camouflaged at some near point ) and it is a substantive indicator of the mounting political instability in Russia. Yeltsin's departure from Russia's political scene will be a major impetus for a hefty upward spike in gold.

Once again, with respect to the stock market, gold stocks reconfirmed their negative beta to the DOW. This definitive contrarian relationship strongly indicates that when the DOW collapses, then this time around, gold stocks should remain flat at worst or rise stratospherically at best. There should be little if any downside to the aggregate XAU upon the next market debacle.

Speaking of market debacle, although most Kitcoites are aware I am a DOW/NASDAQ pessimist, I am now stepping forward today with my first explicit warning related to the general market: I expect a huge drop in equities ( notably the NASDAQ ) to take place within the next THREE trading days. I would hope that goldbugs with hefty industrial equities exposure take appropriate protective actions. We have reached volume levels that are not easily sustainable in the short term without extremely hefty levels of liquidity inflows. Remember that such amazing inflows have gone on now for almost four solid months. It is nothing less than astounding! Much increased rotational indexing amongst the mutual funds, although described as "healthy" by the Wall Street Bulls, indicates a tired, stresesed market in which mutual index funds, holding extremely narrow cash margins, must continually shift investment monies around in order to support stocks in advance of and after earnings reports. Finally, despite most major DOW/NASDAQ companies besting their earnings estimates ( some quite considerably ) ...despite a vast preponderance of Street upgrades of various key stocks...the DOW can be described as flat at best while the NASDAQ is a mere shadow of its former exuberant self. It is nothing less than Fatigue.

Thanks to OLD GOLD, we goldbugs have received early apprisal of the German decision regarding their gold reserves and the new EURO. Once this fact is disseminated widely into the general market, then I would expect some extremely heavy professional buying to come into the gold market. The German announcement seems to confirm suspicions on the part of notable American think-tank theorists that Switzerland and other European nations have been acting as proxy gold purchase agents for Germany over the past few years in advance of this ( and other ) scintillating announcements. In other words, it's the old strategy: scare down the price, reaccumulate, then release the good news.

Yet, this is just one fundamental item in a series of extremely positive fundamental developments that will unfold over the next month. So, just keep holding onto your hats. The ride will be very exciting.

I am maintaining my EXTREMELY BULLISH position on gold and am now formally declaring AN EXTREMLY BULLISH position on silver. On a micro level, I am most excited by the recently announced dramatic turnaround at the silver bellwether, Sunshine ( SSC ) , its tremendous future prospects, and the apparent million share volume consolidation that has occurred in it these past few days. On a macro-level, silver seems to have established its bottom, the COMEX silver inventories are holding nice steady levels, and gold's imminent hefty spike should pull up silver right along with it.

Finally, in response to an earlier query from a fellow Kitcoite, my favorite gold stock for short-term, % price appreciation is undoubtedly Pegasus ( psgqf ) ( Sorry, Haggis, but the "old dog" looks too good to be true ) . Again, Pegasus volume has consolidated very nicely these past few days and its bankruptcy workout seems to be going along without any notable bumps. At a gold price of 350, this 300,000 ounce producer should go through the roof. Any future equity dilution is not expected until Fall,'98 at the earliest.



(Wed Apr 22 1998 18:19 - ID#401183)

(Wed Apr 22 1998 18:28 - ID#201238)
exciting comex stocks
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for April 22
Gold 644,441 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 89,257,535 + 0 troy ounces
Copper 109,521 - 389 short tons

(Wed Apr 22 1998 18:30 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.30

(Wed Apr 22 1998 18:31 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .297

(Wed Apr 22 1998 18:31 - ID#255190)
Aragon III
Liquidity or stupidity? Seems like the brokerages are doing a landslide business. SOMEBODIES got to make money, ya know!

What ever happened to 'buy and hold'? Doesn't sound like alot of 'holding' going on out there. I do appreciate the recent article I read which tries to correct mistaken notions about 'the market'. To wit; there is no "money going into the market" since every buy is also a sell. The same money that is used to buy shares is given to someone who is selling them. There is no aggregation of wealth per se, only appearent wealth. Its only as good as the next person is willing to pay you for it. A fancy game of musical chairs.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 18:31 - ID#401183)
Per Mr. Jack Stone, of NUMISGROUP, INTERNATIONAL ( 1-800-892-1715 ) , of New York, New York, the law that in 1986 allowed ownership of gold and silver coinage by United States citizens and the coinage of gold and silver coins by the U.S. Mint unequiviocally states in small print that confiscation of these minted coins is NEVER and CAN NEVER be accomplished by this or any other government and any reference to the 1933?-1934? Gold Act Law on the books as possibility of GOLD CONFISCATION is pure BULL propagated by RARE COIN SALESMEN WANTING TO SELL GOLD AT A PREMIUM!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 18:33 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 49.79

(Wed Apr 22 1998 18:38 - ID#403274)
farfel - Your 18:12, in a word ... wow!
You are a master at the written word. Thank you, and by all means, please continue your nightly analyses. They are absolutely great!

HenryD - Go Gold!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 18:39 - ID#255190)
Bill Buckler
Do you think the Aussie buck is that tied to gold production and that Aussie gold production is so leveraged that currency conversions would prelude gold price increases? I suppose this may be so but would need to be a bit more confident of the relationships. It does appear an interesting corelation. Possibly even a precursor. Can you let us know, in brief, why you think this is a relaiable indicator? TIA

Bully Beef
(Wed Apr 22 1998 18:43 - ID#259282)
Should talk bearish on gold one more time . Drive the price down buy more ....
Then wait for the inevitable steam-rolling major big time gold rally!

Bully Beef
(Wed Apr 22 1998 18:44 - ID#259282)
Should talk bearish on gold one more time . Drive the price down buy more ....
Then wait for the inevitable steam-rolling major big time gold rally!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 18:47 - ID#348129)
I remember your calls in Dec/Jan, good work. Looking for a break to
320 very soon, with a little pause, and then all hell could break loose......
Many OTC shorts to cover in AU, that the Comex doesn't reflect, and may not be able to handle.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 18:51 - ID#410198)
HOOSIER,have we not been down this road before,!986 was the first year the US
Treasury issued official legal tender coins US Eagels Gold/Silver....these are bullion coins,they also issued Proof coins for collectors....the law on confiscation in 1933 refers to collector coins
issued prior to 1933,that law has not been amended to cover modern issue coins,I concur that a lot of coin dealers use confiscation as a tool,I find this a dumb reason to buy numismatics,...why...because if they are going to come after gold an exective order will take care of all this,I tell folks to buy these because of supply and demand,I'am one dealer that charges not much more than I charge for bullion,be carefull of dealers in NY NY : )

(Wed Apr 22 1998 19:00 - ID#39971)
Gold Forecast
Gold will be above 325 on May 4 1998.

Thank You.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 19:01 - ID#201238)
What? Me bullish?
Mike Sheller - me bullish on gold? I am a geologist, not an astrologer! If I were bullish on gold I would have started a gold mining company to acquire cheap gold properties and begin immediate production, tell everyone I knew that gold in the ground could be bought for a few dollars per ounce, develop technology to produce profitably at current prices. I would do this in a public vehicle to maximize the formation of capital. I would use every effort that I could to spread the word on the internet, sending emails to everyone who had a chance to listen in order to find like minded individuals to invest both money and time and their expertise with me. I would convince the writers of the best gold sites that I was real and that they should support me. Mike if I were really bullish on gold I would have done these things while the price was falling, while everyone was wringing their hands and pulling out their hair and acting like a starving T-rex on Kitco, eating each other. But, then again, been there, done that!

Mike, please don't stop this gold move like the Feb 97 move was stopped when Aurophile posted something to the effect that "no one was more bullish than Arden". Gold stopped immediately at 365 and tried to go to 265 just to see if I were still bullish! Lets don't do that one again, ok?

Mr. Mick
(Wed Apr 22 1998 19:03 - ID#345321)
robnoel - how much more do you charge for numis?
10%, 20%, 30%???

(Wed Apr 22 1998 19:06 - ID#255151)

In addition to Gold, you may want to acquire a needed skill in the post-Y2K world. Phrenology, the study of bumps on your head, may be just the ticket to success. Auric, ThD -Doctor of Thinkology

(Wed Apr 22 1998 19:06 - ID#255217)
robnoel, re: Confiscation and numismatics
I just want to concur. There are several good reasons to buy numismatic gold. Fear of confiscation is not one of them. If the gummint wants your gold, past precident will not hinder them. I used to be a dealer.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 19:10 - ID#288369)
an excellent market review at 18:12....between your work and Mike Kosares'....the "overview" of the market is in hand. Thank you.

Bill Buckler
(Wed Apr 22 1998 19:20 - ID#256381)
$A Gold as an indicator
Allen ( 18:39 ) Australia is perceived as a resource-driven economy ( which it is ) by the rest of the world. It is also the third largest Gold producer in the world - after SA and the US. On the local media, a fall in the $A/$US rate is routinely linked to a falling $US Gold price whenever a fall does indeed occur. Same thing for a rise.

I think that $A Gold moves are reliable lead indicators simply because they always have been - since December 1983 when the $A was floated. The $A Gold price is also a very good indicator for Gold stocks. $A Gold bottomed in December 1992 - so did Gold stocks. $A Gold bottomed in December 1997 - so did Gold stocks.

The relationship between $A and $US Gold, and the study of previous US Gold bottoms - taken in combination - has been excellent in getting very close to pinpointing major turns in the Gold price. That's at bottoms.

Tops are another thing, but I don't think we've quite reached a Gold "top" yet.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 19:33 - ID#176200)
@farfel.ditto_henryd.keep up the great posts!! THANKS!!

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 22 1998 19:35 - ID#347447)
How could I ever notice you were NOT bullish on gold, being a geologist, not an astrologer! If I were bullish on gold I too would have started a gold mining company to acquire cheap gold properties and begin immediate production, tell everyone I knew that gold in the ground could be bought for a few dollars per ounce, develop technology to produce profitably at current prices. I would
do this in a public vehicle to maximize the formation of capital. I would use every effort that Icould to spread the word on the internet, sending emails to everyone who had a chance to listen in order to find like minded individuals to invest both money and time and their expertise with me. I would convince the writers of the best gold sites that I was real and that
they should support me. Arden, if I were really bullish on gold I too would have done these things while the price was falling, while everyone was wringing their hands and pulling out their hair and acting like a starving T-rex on Kitco, eating each other. But, then again, been there, done that! I HAVE done this...WITH YOU! Viva Gold! Viva Clarity Resources!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 19:37 - ID#176200)
All: The bottom line here is they can't confiscate what they can't find!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 19:39 - ID#288369)
Was that a board meeting?

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 22 1998 19:42 - ID#347447)
confiscation, phrenology
confiscation is somewhat moot, as I would imagine that seasoned goldbugs have discounted this bugabear ( waited to use THAT one ) and yes, what they can't find they can't take away. There will always be a means to sell gold coins which have been protected from the grasp of criminal thugs, be they street variety or government bred. Those who look to loot will be diappointed this time around.

Auric: I bookmarkerd the phrenology site. Who Am I to make snide comments. I will get back to it some day...but not tonite, I have a headache. ( ;- )

Mike Sheller
(Wed Apr 22 1998 19:43 - ID#347447)
Studio R
Why? Are you bored?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 19:49 - ID#316256)
Auric: Phrenology, not a bad idea! All kinds of flim-flamery will probably re-emerge after 2K. These poor kids have no education, have learned nothing from the past. Besides this is somewhat compatible with new age thinking : )

(Wed Apr 22 1998 19:54 - ID#288369)
@M. Sheller.....ya'll are the mighty clarity resources are you not?
Your post to arden kinda' read like a new-age prospectus...a lot cooler than others I've read....

Bored? oh no, no, no.....Shocked....oh yes, yes, yes....the bank sent over people this afternoon to the house bearing documents absolving themselves of any involvement in my SA stock purchases today....I went nuts and I'm scared to move away from the screen for fear I'll miss something....ohmy....ohmy....what was I thinkin? Murrstein...need a client? Somebody ( other than me ) is responsible for my actions!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 19:55 - ID#403274)
My broker says...
... that the Kitco faxes he gets from me are better than any information source he has available. Loves Farfel and Preacher and today I introduced him to vronsky ( he's got SA stock, you know ) . He calls me at least three times a week to encourage me to send him more. A second-hand Kitco adict; go figure!

Hmmm, maybe I oughtta charge 'im, eh?

No, guess not... what's received freely from giving brethren should be given freely to those less fortunate.

Thanks, guys ... you are a wonder, indeed.


(Wed Apr 22 1998 19:56 - ID#75206)
Kitco Spot Metals Prices
Are Kitco's spot metals prices accurate? Right now it shows palladium up $33.80. That's different then Kaplan's site. What gives? Which one is right? Also, what is the significance of the different colored deltas next to Kitco's spot prices? Thanks for the help.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:00 - ID#230244)
THANK YOU for the excellent post,happy to see that there is life left in Pegasus.Still hope to recoup my convertible bonds.Down to $6 from a high $105.00 talk about a beating.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:01 - ID#401460)
Wednesday April 22, 7:24 pm Eastern Time

IMF funding facing difficulty in U.S. House-Rubin
``We've got to get that done in the House, but it's clearly a difficult situation.''
``It's critically important we get the full funding,'' Rubin said.


(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:02 - ID#401460)
That's R U B I N

Sorry Bob.


(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:03 - ID#288260)
Let's see the Canadian banks own brokerages. The banks hold loans on companies, while their brokerages sell stock ( of those same companies ) to their customers. Nope no possibility of conflict of interest there!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:03 - ID#344290)
@ Donald, All - Nice Gold Article in 4/4/98 Forbes
Charticle they call it - gives chart of the price of gold in 1998 dollars ( Am. ) from 1344 to date. Only 4 times in that time span has gold been as chaep as now. Good article!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:04 - ID#403274)
Drifter (Kitco Spot Metals Prices)
If by "deltas" you mean the colored buttons to the left of each metal:

Red = Markets closed.
Green = Markets open.
Yellow = Previous day ( or date color coded on the left of the spot frame ) .

(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:09 - ID#267344)
Thank you Mr. MURRSTEIN, Sir, for your enlightening contribution.
I intend to persue legal action against myself for offering innacurate investment advice to myself of late. You see, I thought there was an equity bubble so I invested in physical gold at an average price of $339. So I really suck and I blame myself for it. My hope is that others on this forum ( who can think of no better way to invest than on the backs of others ) will also sue me so that I really learn my lesson and so that I will never take the advice of a fool like myself again. From now on, I will only invest according to the advice of my hero, a true hitch-hiker I might add, MURRSTEIN! As this post is of absolutely no importance, I go now.

- c

(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:10 - ID#401460)
henryd__A Your broker & my ex-broker.

Sounds like a friend of mine, imagine a broker, not using the Internet and e-mail - snail mail or fax it. A real confidence builder. Definitely not a hightech expert - my friend my ex-broker.


(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:11 - ID#403274)
Drifter (Kitco Spot Metals Prices)
But if you're referring to the colored numbers to the RIGHT of the metals, those are the change from the previous NY close.

Green is good, purple is baaaaad!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:11 - ID#24864)
Lihir@ $2.59 on opening
for Herr Golden Cheesehead
Regards Happy Trading

(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:13 - ID#238295)
Kaplan downgraded gold stocks today. They have risen too far and too fast for his most conservative taste. He broods over the fact that hedge funds are long -- this is bearish in his view.

His website still is a must read for gold investors, but he has become a contrary indicator. Bullish most of the way down and turns cautious at the first decent rally.

Farfel: Another excellent market review! One caveat -- if the market breaks in the next few days as you expect, I agree that gold stocks will soar at best and fall slightly at worst. But if the XAU should surge to say 120 before the Dow tanks, we could see significant -- albeit temporary -- weakness.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:14 - ID#217268)
I just want to add my 2 cents on the subject of confiscation. I read on a Web site some time ago that if the value of the gold coins back in 1933 were 15% higher than the price of spot gold, they were exempt from confiscation. Presumably, by that definition, all bouillon was subject to confiscation. Ironically, bouillon then is nusmatic today!! Anyway, I will pass along that web site if I can find it again.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:16 - ID#403274)
HighRise (henryd__A Your broker & my ex-broker.)
So true, so true. But he was my friend before he was my broker ... and at least he admits he doesn't know. I think I'll keep him a wee bit longer ... if he's following the Kitco threads I fax him, he'll be so rich he can quit his day job. Soon, that is. : )


(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:17 - ID#288369)
That's a print.....hee...heee! :* )

Voyeur Professor
(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:24 - ID#231101)


I also want to add my accolade to the growing list of Kitco participants who believe you have been most prescient regarding this move up in gold. While I do not share your apocalyptic view of an entropic Dow, I do think we are very close to a top. You might find a comrade in the recent "Economist" ( ) who looks for a correction soon. Also Neil Williams, a global strategist at Goldman Sachs in London, expects a Fed hike in interest rates will end the bull market for a while with a 10% correction from here by the end of the year. This possibility, along with the Euro gold reserve announcement, could well prove a most fortuitous new market condition, giving gold a high-profile during a lagging market. And while Kaplan may be right in his concern for the bearish direction in which speculators are now long and commercials short, I think he overlooks the increasing change in the markets perception of "gold as dead." This growing alteration in investor and fund attitudes toward gold will soon bring greater liquidity to the gold paper market. I believe such a change will result in a significant transformation in the psychology of the gold market; maybe not as fanatical a psychology as the omnivorous equity optimism that has driven this bull, but a change nevertheless that will truly alter golds prospects this year. If Williams is correct in his prediction of at least a 10% correction, gold will surely reap some advantage as an investment when frustration sets in over the inability of portfolio managers to sustain their utopian yields. I have always believed that even the most anti-gold investors will turn to it when it makes a sustained move in price as I believe it will soon.

Gusto Oro
(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:26 - ID#377235)
Good Info
Farfel & Old Gold--great stuff as usual. One of my silver stocks was up .25+% today. Even my graphite mine in China is in the black. Go Commodities, please. --AG

(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:28 - ID#217268)
Gold Confiscation
Pursuant to my earlier note of the same subject, the enclosed web site may offer some additional perspective, agree or not.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:42 - ID#307271)
@Donald--Re: Spot Ratio + ALL: Chart Stuff

Either the Spot needs to move up briskly or the XAU must give, right?

What's your call?


My few dozen Humble PM charts show almost half are over their 200-day moving averages like the XAU, including:


Also, at the threshold of punching through are AU and GLG.

Worthy of note also is that old "Bowow" ECO which was up over 12% today.

In a near mirror image to the XAU, the dollar index ( DXY0 ) will plunge through its 200-day average tomorrow if it drops from 98.96 through 98.6.

Is there Life left in Silver? Gold Gold!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:45 - ID#401460)

It sounds as if in your case it is best to keep the good working relationship that has the added plus of friendship.

I have found that no matter who the broker is, one has to do his own home work. Most brokers are spread pretty thin these days.


(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:54 - ID#401460)

S&P 500 JUN98 1133.90 -250

(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:56 - ID#267344)
A question of investing ethics:
How does a conscientious investor justify investing in mining activities when there are known and detrimental risks to the environment? Answers such as, "everyone is doing it," or, "economics fixes all in the end," do not hold much water ( or gold ) in my opinion. Please offer me some thoughtful responses so that I can think about it this evening! - c

(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:57 - ID#34857)
HighRise (henryd__A

HighRise ( henryd__A ) ID#401460:

"I have found that no matter who the broker is, one has to do his own home work. Most brokers are spread pretty thin these days. "


HighRise - Agree completely. That's why I'm here.

And thank you Sir, you are obviously a gentleman who values friendships.


(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:57 - ID#267344)
A question of investing ethics:
How does a conscientious investor justify investing in mining activities when there are known and detrimental risks to the environment? Answers such as, "everyone is doing it," or, "economics fixes all in the end," do not hold much water ( or gold ) in my opinion. Please offer me some thoughtful responses so that I can think about it this evening! - c

(Wed Apr 22 1998 20:59 - ID#256326)
200 dma
On my charts we crossed the 200 day moving average today whose importance I have previously mentioned. More importantly, we have launched into Elliottt wave 3 of 3 territory.

It is a fact that "they" may wish to sell against a 200 dma puncture, but it is also true that some folks only BUY when this event transpires. If this holds, we could be looking at $350-380 for this present leg up.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:00 - ID#266105)

I think the bulldozers and frontend loaders should get up
to Mt St. Helens right pronto to restore the terrible geophysical devastation.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:02 - ID#256326)
It may be that you don't now your arse from a hole in the ground ( mine ) . may be unaware of mine safety and mine reclamation rules and procedures currently applicable. I can't decide.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:02 - ID#317193)
F*-a suggestion
Farfel, a request if you please. Your recent post was, of course, eloquent. However, calling for a drop in the NASDAQ within three trading days is unnecessary and counterproductive. I, too, see the liquidity crisis looming. Notwithstanding this, there is no need to go out on a limb on a call for this index to falter.

Some time ago ( not that long ) I asked if you and mozel were watching. I did this because I believed both of you were essential to the karma at Kitco. You may or may not understand my thoughts. Simply put, the goldbugs here needed to believe that gold would once again rise after so many setbacks and loses and that long-term profits should be the objective, not short-term gains.

Mozel has instilled us all with a much more true sense of the American constitution. Your postings make believers out of doubters. They instill confidence in those here at Kitco. Additionally, since I am sure this site is monitored by the anti-goldbugs, you have caused all such persons to fear the new attitude of the gold adherents.

The point of all of this rambling is to suggest that at no time should you make a statement that places your believability at risk. Your comments affect all here at Kitco and, I believe, effect the market since the attitude here is monitored very closely.

Change is coming soon-to a city near us all. Be happy in knowing this and perhaps not get to melodramatic in the calls for a market correction. By the way, I think your right. Looks and acts awfully topy to me. As always, no offense intended. UTHEMAN!


(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:06 - ID#267344)
Aurophile - Thank you for the thoughtful response.

Mr. Mick
(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:07 - ID#345321)
Robnoel - your non-answer was an answer........

(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:10 - ID#234218)
Any and all,
Attitudes and interests ARE changing, albeit a little at a time.

I would appreciate recommendations on gold mutual funds. There are a couple of ladies in my office who are looking to invest, but arent comfortable with either the dow ( smart ladies, no! ) or individual stocks. I talked to them for about an hour on gold and gold shares. They turned up their nose a little at first, but now I think theres a couple of new believers. Especially, when I told them F* said it was the right thing to do. ( no legal responsibility implied or intended ) **

If anyone has any recommendations to pass along to consider, Im sure they would appreciate them.

Thank you all

**Any claims, statements, recommendations, inferences, opinions, theories predictions, star interpretations, or tequila induced guesses are not just cause for liable. Any lost funds or misspent gains, are solely the responsibilities of the individual investor.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:11 - ID#28961)
Let's play Catch up

Gold stocks of the last two days are forcasting that the price of gold itself will take out the intra-day high of two weeks ago Monday, which was about 317 that morning.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:16 - ID#300202)
@ Farfel-Following In The Footsteps of Giants
Am a keen Kitco follower on an ongoing/daily basis & appreciate &
attempt to digest & rationalize both positives/negatives re my personal
investments of which I am down approx. 1/2 paper value. It is posts like
yours along with many of the other wisdomic/knowledgeable speakers that have resulted in my heel digging in an effort to persevere.Ur evangelistic style has assisted me in heel digging along with subsequent
gains in such a short time. I encourage u & the others to continue
hammering away at the positives in an effort to Preach The Word. I am
thinking so much more but would like to end it with a simple Thank You

(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:18 - ID#307271)
Most of the stocks mentioned on my previous post have not only broken through but have retested the 200-day moving average. Many of these are not in the XAU, and broke through earlier in April. This would appear to be a very strong BUY signal to most investors. To sell after a firm retest of this level I believe is contrary to any technical logic.

John B__A
(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:21 - ID#211105)
Shorts Still Increasing
If history is a guide, this equity market will not top out until the shorts surrender. Statistics released today ( below ) show they haven't as yet! This should be to our benefit ( as gold-stock bugs ) because gold stocks have been rising in sympathy with the rest of this surging market

Big Board Short Interest Rises 1.5% To 3.87 Billion Shares, a New High

NEW YORK -- Short interest on both the New York Stock Exchange and the American Stock Exchange hit records in the latest month.

Short interest on the Big Board increased 1.5% to 3,871,799,947 shares on
April 15 from 3,814,560,456 in mid-March.

On the Amex, the figure rose 0.06% to 176,691,804 shares from a revised
176,593,860 shares in mid-March.

The March figures on both exchanges had been records.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:21 - ID#298259)
Thank you greatly for your market updates... as for your prediction for a downturn in the general market I don't see this happening until one of the major players presents a negative earnings surprise, or the Fed raises interest rates. With Microsoft now at a PE of 65 I was hoping this would be the one...however they again have managed to beat analysts expectations...announced after the market close:

Microsoft: --Update-- software giant's CEO says sees Q4 EPS down slightly from Q3 and revenues roughly flat with Q3 level . Analysts had been expecting Q4 net of $0.46 a share, compared to the $0.50 a share the company reported for its Q3. Says expects FY99 Q1 and Q2 results to be similar FY Q4 numbers. Says Windows 98 on track for May 15 shipment to OEMs...

Microsoft Corp. ( MSFT ) 98 13/16 +3 15/16: software giant still manages to surprise by reporting a Q3 net of $0.50 a share, two cents above the already upwardly revised market consensus, vs year-ago profit of $0.40 a share; revenues rose 17% to $3.77 bln; sees slower growth through balance of calendar 1998 as it remains concerned about the Far East. However, says there is some evidence that Far Eastbusiness not getting weaker. On 3/24, the company said it expected to report Q3 net of of around $0.48 a share, about four cents above the prevailing estimate at the time ....

But... IDCIBM ... go gold!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:24 - ID#401460)
One More Fed Member "Must guard against inflation"

4/22/98 -- 5:54 PM

Fed needs to be on guard against inflation, Kansas City Fed

NEW YORK ( AP ) - The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City on Wednesday joined a growing chorus of policy-makers whose comments suggest the central bank is growing worried about the risks of a pickup in inflation.

Thomas Hoenig emphasized the need for the Fed to be ``pre-emptive' in guarding against rising prices. He also warned that the ``jury is still out'' on whether favorable factors that have been holding down inflation, such as higher productivity, will continue.


(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:24 - ID#298259)
where are you hiding...we are all anxiously awaiting your next "Market Comments".

(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:30 - ID#320158)
clone, mining and the environment
My short answer is that the environment is made for man, not man for the environment. Man is much more important than environment, although there is no inherent clash between them.
Man lives from the environment. The environment has shown it can even withstand nuclear war, recover and flourish.

Outside of this, I want to know what is it about mining that you see as bad for the environment?


(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:31 - ID#24864)
Some Aussie Gold figures
After 90 minutes trading:
Gold Index up 56 at 1410.3
Acacia up 10 at $2.48
Great Central Mines up 11 at $2.25
Lihir up 11 at $2.60
Newcrest up 15 at $2.91
Normandy up 5 at $1.80 Happy Trading all.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:35 - ID#26669)
Clone, food for thought (vegetarian, of course)
If you've a mind to study being 'liberal' or 'progressive' or even 'socialist' in your thoughts, try to think of mining, logging and other large scale operations as 'affirmative action' programmes for otherwise disadvantaged species. It provides habitat for critters which would otherwise be unable to compete in a balanced ecosphere.

Thus, in a world of global economy it is our duty to level the playing field and suppress those capitalistic and bourgoise species which otherwise would have unfair local advantage... %^\

Just teasing but it sounds good on the surface...maybe they should apply it to silver and palladium, too. Equal prices for all! I'd be a zillionaire with $380 silver!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:36 - ID#227290)
I've been in Toronto for a mining convention. Stayed an extra day to visit some companies.
Just got back a little while ago.
I scanned Kitco briefly each night. I didnt have a local internet connection and the phone rates were astonomical from the hotel, the Westin Bayshore Castle.
We had a fire alarm last night. Four huge fire trucks came to the hotel. The ass't manager told everyone to remain calm.
I did, but decided I would remain calm from a lower level and ran like crazy down 26 flights of stairs. Never saw a fire, but did get a good workout.

I plan on putting something out shortly, although I'll admit I'm surprised at the gold surge this week, coming so soon into the pullback.

The Preacher

(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:39 - ID#266105)

Today's action--

jgai 6.43%

hui 4.43%

xau 3.80%

(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:42 - ID#259400)
I agree. Along with Farfel * the unpronouncable I value your comments above all others. Your silence of late has been rather unnerving. I along with many others would appreciate greatly hearing you weigh in with your thoughts.
Respectfully and humbly
Crazy Bill

(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:43 - ID#411112)
OK All lets end this talk of CONFISCATION theres a lot of bad info out there

Mr.Mick,Argent,Open Loop,maybe Mike
Sheller,have got it right,in 1933 when
confiscation went into effect,90% of
Americans thought the government did the
right less than 30% think
that.......they know this,lets get real,what
are they going to do house to house
searches....yeah to Pyramid
another mith, no where is there a % of 15%
mentioned....and I refer to a previous
some dealers use this as an excuse to mark
up 15% and some dealers out there charge 35%
dealer that does not deliver....... the law
does say however that any coin issued prior
to 1933 that has a value higher than it's
intrensic vaule is a
for myself I charge a flat $25.00 over
wholesale on numismatics ie. MS 62 Saints I
will pay $500.00 sell for $525.00 ( no spots
very clean ) ship real fast....a shameless
plug,bullion runs 10 to 20 dollars over spot.
any questions.....: )

(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:45 - ID#307271)
The Precious Metal Bull Market of 1998 is independent of the Wall Street Kamikazi market. If nothing has been learned by anyone here at KITCO, all genuine PM-GOLD enthusiasts KNOW what time it's HIGH NOON for Gold-Bugs. While we might experience a pull-down when the "ZERO" hits the mother ship, we're outa here. Go Gold!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:47 - ID#338228)
Gosh...thanks for the quick response. Sorry I didn't mean to...but I did chuckle a little over your flight down the stairs...but I'm sure I would have been right behind you.

I'll be looking for your to get something to eat.

John B__A
(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:54 - ID#211105)
Clone - your 20:09 Post
My very best laugh of the day - I thank you.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:54 - ID#255151)

Got a chuckle out of that myself. I had a
vision of Dowists doing the same thing when fire breaks out in the House of Paper.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:55 - ID#287193)
@Preacher, did you go with Jay...
to visit Thermo Tech?
Have a look at the link at April 21/98 23:59 and see if you heard more?


(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:56 - ID#307271)
@The Preacher
Thanks for coming back so at all. You can't believe all the posts calling for your expertise. As previously posted, do you think the fact that many PM stocks broke through and retested their 200-day moving averages even before the XAU did so is significant to the days ahead? Can you imagine any sane investor selling these said issues?

Go Gold--and Orange and Blue !

(Wed Apr 22 1998 21:58 - ID#194311)
On-line traders?
anybody know an on-line trader providing efficient, reasonable-priced service for PM option/future trades?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:00 - ID#256326)
Thank you for the update. Steady as she goes.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:00 - ID#267344)
Lucky, 223
Mining is extremely disruptive to natural surroundings. The arsenal of chemicals used to extract minerals from the Earth are equally ( if not more ) harsh. These chemicals must be disposed of or recycled. I think I prefer the days when mines were man-made caves and not gigantic pits. That being said, I support progress and making a profit as long as that means that the overall quality of life is improved with minimal affects to the environment ( as long as it is done responsibly ) . Our rapidly expanding species will some day realize that conservation is just as important, if not more important, than exploitation. The mining industry is essential to our ongoing lifestyles of excess. I do not agree that the environment was made for man and I do not value the human species more than the rest of the world. I appreciate your responses - it is just something I wanted to throw out because I really do not know too much about the subject and, being an Oregonian, I know many who oppose the corporate mining industry. I too have been known to hug a tree or two. My current choice is this: do I invest in mining stocks for a big profit or do I invest in recycling stocks for a smaller ( if any ) profit. The ethical question is fundamental to my decision. Thx. - c

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:02 - ID#289433)
Bottom line, if it comes to that, which I doubt, it won't even resemble the past. The old rules still in effect can be changed in the blink of an eye, and they will. If they do it, ain't nothin' gonna be confiscation proof. Jest hide it and lie. Bullion or Numismatic it's just gonna be gold to them.

Lan Man
(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:03 - ID#320108)
@Look at that Volume










(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:03 - ID#431263)
Herr Snowball!
My favorite gold fund and the one I put my mother and son into is Benham World Gold Fund ( BGEIX ) now an American Century fund, which means you can switch in and out of all Benham Zero Coupon Bond Funds and American Century Funds like Vista, Ultra etc. Plus its NO-LOAD which means all your money goes to work immediately. One further benefit: if you want to switch into gold bullion its only a phone call away at 2% over spot in and out! Plus it can invest anywhere in the world and usually does!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:05 - ID#57232)
Germany definitely to sell Gold to Euro?
Farfel: I am a gold bug too, but what I have about Germany, on more careful review, is a statement from Alison Cottrell at PaineWebber International in London. BT times, April ? 1998. What A.C. said was that German gold sales to the Euro 'would be a neat move'. Nothing official was stated by the Bundesbank spokesman.

What I find especially significant is that this is probably what triggered our current gold rally of the last two days. Rumor -- not fact is all that is necessary. Not long ago, rumors of gold sales would make the gold price go down.

Do you have an actual news byte from the Bundesbank, or are you quoting speeds post from this AM?

By the way, right now, computer stocks are showing a stunning comeback, a bullish wave which I am riding for the next few weeks or so, before my natural gold buggish instincts get the better of me. I figure the current rally of these US market flagships merit waveriding -- good practice for the Gold bug Tsunami. Perhaps the computer bear is over for a time.

European equities are very bullish right now, as it appears that they are coming out of their recession. Looks like that 1 trillion of bad SEAsian debt is being rolled over as future inflation.

Personally, I think the craziness of the US equities market is not over, and I doubt a demise in the markets in 3 days. I would be very interested in seeing your reasoning for the demise of the US markets -- by next Tuesday, I believe. The markets will need an external shock of some kind to collapse -- we don't have that yet. Oldman predicts a ( mild? ) correction soon followed by a final blowoff with major bear market beginning this year. If Oldman is right, we goldbugs will have the times of our lives until this fall. But -- in the fall, we must be ready for a possible gold bug Tsunami crash, especially if we have had a good 2x+ gold equities rally.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:09 - ID#342376)
I always get a kick when........
everytime gold goes up a few bucks the discussion turns to confiscation. We goldbugs are a paranoid group, aren't we?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:11 - ID#256326)
I don't think I could add significantly to my previous post in a way which would engage your intelligence. May I suggest you contact Homestake Mining's environmental divison for some literature on modern mine development and reclamation law and technology. They are in the San Francisco phone book.

You may ( or may not ) be surprised to learn that the tree huggers are largely ignorant when they are not downright and purposefully misleading.

You may also want to reread Genesis for a corporate statement of purpose on human uses of natural resources.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:17 - ID#30116)
They have to worry about something! :- ) ) Personally, I'll worry about my profits first. Somehow, when gold was at $420/oz, 'it' managed to avoid being 'confiscated'....

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:21 - ID#30116)
Don't bother. You can't fight the 'religious' beliefs of another person. It's downright counterproductive. The real problem is that the 'tree huggers' don't know that they've 'embraced' an old religion. They actually think that they're doing something 'new' under the sun... go figure.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:22 - ID#227290)
Market Comments
To all:

I can't say I have a clear picture. I thought gold would go to between $317-$323. Then two weeks ago it peaked out short of that figure and I thought it would retrace 50% or so to $301 or so. It didn't make it that far and has now moved sharply higher, although not quite to a new high for the year.
Gold is holding above its 200-day MA, which I find amazing. Today, it broke above a downtrend line in force since Dec. 96. I'm torn between two views here. Some of the senior gold stocks look ready to explode: BMG, ABX for starters. But stochastics are pretty overbought.
So will we now see a quick, explosive rally to the $338 area? Or will we see a falure after a little more headway and then see the 50% retracement?
I wish I knew. The only thing I can say is that I am holding my core positions and not margining, even though margining in an uptrend really expands profits.
Sorry to be so vague, but I'm really confused here.

Why does BMG look so good? Last Oct, the daily chart left a gap from 6.75 to 7.00. Two weeks ago that gap got filled and then the price slumped. Today, the price powered over that price area which says now that 7.00 should become a floor, not a ceiling. If BMG is not going lower from here, then neither is gold nor the other seniors. A powerful rally could go on now.

The U.S. dollar index fell to and bounced off its 200-day MA today. This could be a bottom for the dollar, but I doubt it. The more I look at these charts the more the probability seems that there will be an eruption here, with the dollar falling sharply and gold rising sharply.
I wouldn't bet the house on it, though. I would like to see two weekly closes under the 200-day for the dollar index before I'm comfortable with a new bear market there.
A few months ago, I said I thought the dollar had peaked and it was not about to break down. Someone disagreed and showed a chart that indicated there would be one more rally for the dollar. He was right and we got the rally and a new high. Maybe this time the dollar will crack.

One interesting note to me: After putting in new all-time highs yesterday and today, IBM looks to have formed a "key reversal" on its daily chart. It has an imposing gap below it. A gap open to the downside tomorrow will make this an island reversal and would go a very long way toward heralding a new bear market in the Dow.
We can always hope.

ONE MORE: The gold enthusiasm has not spread to Vancouver at all. The VSE Index was up 3.2 points today to 635. It started the year at 629 and was as high as 1,200 last year. The higher gold price has only helped the exploration stocks in that if they hit something, the price moves better than it did three months ago.
No gold fever yet.

Happy trading, good to be back

The Preacher

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:23 - ID#284255)
Here's the swing chart updated.
Not sure but I feel that the upswing just began will be the last upswing before the coming downmove we are all waiting for.
The oscillators have been working down towards the zero line as they did in the previous rally. Distribution - rotation.
At the top of this next short term up-cycle will be the time to be short or out of the equities. When the blue line passes downwards through the red m/a.

VIX is cheap - no fear yet.
And as for some of the European indices, some make the Dow look tame.
I doubt that they have much more room to rally.

I am currently sitting with the perspectives of both Oldman and Tpxrpt.
Either the final top just ahead or the possiblity of one more rally.

After reading aurophile's ( 200 dma ) 20:59
I wish I'd bought more of those Dec400 GC calls

Go 'my precious'

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:26 - ID#256326)
You are correct, sir. ( 8^ )

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:26 - ID#373403)
They better confiscate quickly before the market value of gold makes us all a nice tidy profit at the expense of our fellow taxpayers.

Article V. of the Bill of Rights of the Constitution of the United States

...;nor shall private property be taken for public use without just compensation.

From Websters New Universal Unabridged Dictionary:

2 ) equitable; impartial; fair
3 ) exact; accurate; precise; neither too much nor too little; neither more nor less

a weighing together, a compensation, from compensare, to weigh together, compensate.
3 ) in law, a setoff; the settlement of debt by the debtor's establishing of a counterclaim against his creditor.

I know the government accepts my current market valuation of my gold because they allow me to pay taxes based on my reporting of my inventory levels. That ought to be legally binding to them.

Another question. Would there be a market liquidity to gold held in spite of confiscation?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:26 - ID#340302)
@TYOUNG AND KITCOITES...thanks for the compliments...
...although I do not deserve any of them. If this gold market should sustain itself upward to the levels I foresee, then YOU are the heroes, not I. You are the ones worthy of accolades. It represents a belief in yourselves, your common sense, your perceptions, and your convictions against the lengthy, severe adversity of a "maniacal" majority.

TYoung, I understand and empathize where you are coming from. Prognostications which suggest "negative" developments for mainstream investors and institutions do not enhance their love for goldbugs. I can see where that might lead to "negative karma." However, by the same token, if a person believes something strongly and wishes to ensure that a "favored group" is spared any dire consequences, then do you not think that person should speak up? Have I gone out on the limb? Yes, indeed, however, I have been hanging out on this limb along with most Kitcoites ever since '96 when Belgium began "The Great Gold Scare of the Nineties." I, like many of you, continued to hold my gold investments in the face of a spate of virtually universal derision? Whether we realize it or not, we have all been hanging out on this limb now for some time.

In any case, allow me to requote from my earlier posting:

"I expect a huge drop in equities ( notably the NASDAQ ) to take place within the next THREE trading days."

I must underscore that this post does NOT use the dreaded "C" word ( rhymes with flash ) , does it? In my little daily reports, I aim for euphemism wherever possible.

My expectations are born of empiricism and intuition based on what I have described previously in terms of the neologism, "fundamentech analysis."

However, naturally, as I have proven in the past, I am merely human
and do not possess one single ounce of omniscience. Beware of people who claim otherwise.

Ultimately, I like to believe I have a fairly good grasp of market psychology today ( don't we all? ) As such, I have never felt so uneasy about the current equities markets as I do today. So, I share my thoughts and analysis with you.

Naturally, you should ( and I expect will ) arrive at your own conclusions.



(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:26 - ID#267344)
I did not know Homestake had an environmental division. A good place to start, I will investigate - thx. I am mostly refering to the mining industry in general. I think you accurately depict the infamous "tree-huggers," but it is important to realize one do not have to be a tree hugger to hug a tree - it kinda feels good in an erotic sort of way! I have read Genesis and decided I liked the Darwin and Buddhist versions better. It all kind of clashes with my Ayn Rand influences though. But, who is John Galt? I have the distinct feeling that I am starting to waste bandwidth - I go!
- c

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:27 - ID#413109)
Cold out on that limb
Farfel F* All-
Have made some predictions lately based on my long term work.
a couple of weeks ago predicted golds up and markets down. Well
the first part proved to be ok, the second has fooled me again, and
Also predicted a few days ago that I for one, believe that the Nikkei
is a buy at these levels. I've watched and charted this baby since the
break from 1990, and expected one more leg to beteen 7-10,000, but when
it started making a similar pattern to the Dow in the '30s, I decided
I was wrong and with all the bad news, it looks bullish to me at these
levels. In any case it's a good buy with a stop just under the recent
Your prediction of NASDAQ topping, follows what I've said, but I've been
wrong for 2 weeks now, and feel a bit foolish. Hope you don't join me
out on this limb, as the limb cannot stand additional weight.

John B__A
(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:30 - ID#211105)
If any of your ladies are already Fidelity customers, they can buy STIVX without any load or transaction fee and Fidelity will hold it in their existing brokerage or mutual fund account.

STIVX Lexington Strategic Investments $1.45 NAV +0.06 today 04/22/98

If you believe gold bullion will do well, this is about the most aggressive and large fund. It invests almost exclusively in South African gold mining companies which will benefit mightily from an advance in gold bullion. the fund manager, Robert Radsch, is also an oldtime knowledgeable and experienced gold hand. For example, Its 4.3% rise today isn't shabby.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:31 - ID#227290)
servhard & zeke
I didn't go with Jay to see that company. I went to see Denison Mines, uyana Goldfields, and Miranda Resources.

zeke, ABX looks to be leading the pack. The other stocks moving over their 200-day is very important. If it can hold in here until both 100- and 200-day are turned upward and then the 100-day moves above the 200-day, then we've got a real, live bull market.
As to your last question, it's never insane to sell, at least some, at a profit and ride the other shares higher. Almost always, the market will come back to you.
Ray talks about checking your bait too often. I think I do that personally. But we havent had a good runup in gold for two years, so trading has been the way to go.
Things might be different on this move.

The Preacher

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:33 - ID#341288)
Okay now Lads, get ready for the showdown at the biggest game in town. Much more physical buying going on that is actually being stated and or reckoned with. Do your physical buying now. Do not put it off. There is very little risk here. Tremendous amounts of paper of all kinds that has been watching and will rush physical Gold. In some ways, It will be a surprise. A kind of a lag that is followed by a surge, followed by an even larger surge. The first surge caused by thousands of "suppliers" replenishing on the heavy side by the "feel" of the market. They will be stripped quickly when Gold moves through 320 - 325. When they try to go back for more, to supply the public, the ones who control the paper, will buy it all. All that is available. They will compete for the Gold, and we will watch. Watching will not be what we want to do. Our time is now. If Gold backs and fills a few dollars or whatever, do not be fooled and be caught watching. It is becoming a pipeline problem that cannot be bottled or skewed. When it is no longer containable, and that is here somewhere now, the bigger surge will steal your chance. The chance that you think you own at your leisure. The only time to buy physical Gold is now. I tell you this so that you will hurry.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:33 - ID#256326)
I am personally a Druid, and we are, as a group, rather touchy about marxists who claim to love trees. I trust you will understand. If not, you will doubtless be a candidate for primary equinoctial sacrifical victim ( PESV ) . Cheers!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:34 - ID#57232)
Intruder Alert! Computer Hackers have Defense Satellite control codes?
Only maintenance software downloaded, according to officals.

All: Let's not forget that 2yk is not the only computer-related problem we could have. Other possible problems include unexpected effects of unscrupulous computer hackers funneling our cybercash, or an unusually big solar flare knocking out power in large sections of the country.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:36 - ID#30116)
The next time that an earthquake, volcanic eruption, flood, or other natural disaster occurs, ask yourself what happens to the affected environment? Mt. St. Helens managed to affect the weather patterns in the U.S. for several years due to the ash and sulfur dioxides injected in to the atmosphere at high altitudes ( over 100,000 feet ) . I doubt if we ( mankind ) could do so much 'damage' in such a short time.

Remember one other thing, all of the 'stuff' in and on this planet, has always been here. Sure, we may have re-arranged a molecule or two, but I think that in the few billion years that the earth has been here, nature has already tried most of the combinations already... I don't presume to think that we are smart enough to know 'what's best' for the planet, seeing as how we are just a part of the grand experiment.

John B__A
(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:42 - ID#211105)
These are all top-flight funds and have beaten every fund in sight this year.

Last 6 Weeks

fn Fund 6wks 1998
14 Lexington Strat Invest 20.4 11.5
1 ASA Ltd . 17.1 18.5
29 USAA Gold . 16.6 19.7
22 Pioneer Gold A . 15.6 15.1
33 Vanguard Spec Gold . 15.4 17.5
9 Fidelity Sel Prec Mtls 14.8 19.3
2 Amer Cent Global Gold. 14.7 15.6
11 Gabelli Gold . 14.4 20.4
7 Evergreen Prec Mtls B. 13.7 18.6
19 Oppenheimer Gold A . 13.5 15.8


fn Fund 1998
11 Gabelli Gold . 20.4
29 USAA Gold . 19.7
9 Fidelity Sel Prec Mtls 19.3
7 Evergreen Prec Mtls B. 18.6
1 ASA Ltd . 18.5
33 Vanguard Spec Gold . 17.5
10 Franklin Gold I . 16.2
19 Oppenheimer Gold A . 15.8
2 Amer Cent Global Gold. 15.6
22 Pioneer Gold A . 15.1

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:44 - ID#307271)
@The Preacher
Thanks for the Retort:

As to BMG;

I have a very close relative who owns over 25k of BMG and is getting some chill bumps and hot flashes. My charts show resistance at about 10 with a possible 13 as a limit. While you're looking, do those trained orbs scan any nuances my relative should be aware of? Again, thanks for returning to the trenches. Those K rations were horrible!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:46 - ID#234218)
@Golden Cheesehead & John B_A
Gentlemen, I thank you both for your input. I will pass these along. I'm sure we will have two more in the gold cheering section.


(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:53 - ID#342376)
Cressy, your post reminds me of Another, only with more concrete language. Panda- I agree we are part of the grand experiment. We are part of this living organism we call Earth but I think we resemble cancerous tissue. We are growing too fast and using too much of the resources. Even cities, from satellite views, look like cancerous tissue. Conciousness is a part of this evolution, but to use a computer analogy, the hardware is fine but the software is corrupt. I suppose I shouldn't be buying Gold but I have gone down the evolutionary scale to a measly "Goldbug" : )

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:54 - ID#30116)
@Some news..
Palladium news at
Earlier Dow futures opening?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 22:58 - ID#30116)
Cancerous tissue? Don't you think that's a little bit harsh description of mankind? I don't see myself as something that malevolent. Then again, I don't watch much T.V. either, except for cartoons and the Simpsons... :- ) )

Good night all..................

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:00 - ID#256326)
I know the queasy feeling you describe, but I think we must have faith in the Earth, the species, and the indestructable products of the Earth, such as gold ( and other minerals ) , grains, fruits, veggies, trees, and our fellow beasts. We must also be aware of the formidable talent and energy employed by the elitists to deny us our enjoyment of same.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:00 - ID#267344)
misc. FYI's
Concerning the proposed Constitutional Ammendment I posted Tuesday:
More on those troublesome Hackers:
China seizes silver:
Puerto Rico wants Statehood:
- c
aurophile - I do understand, but would like to participate as a PSEV anyway. Can I send my clone?
Panda - Earthquakes, Volcanoes ( etc. ) happen. Does that give man the right to destroy as well?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:02 - ID#201238)
to clone (aurophile let me take this one)
Clone - it is my belief that true miners, farmers and loggers are the real environmentalists, for they must make their living from the environment in which they live. I have never in my thirty odd years in this business ever met a miner or farmer or logger who wanted to destroy the place that they were living in and raising their children in. The mining industry was the first casualty of the environmental war. In some cases with good reason, we had plants ( smelters ) operating in this country ( USA ) in the early 70's that were built in the early 1900's and had not changed since. These were forced to clean up or clear out with the first assault by the environmental troops. Simce then, many laws and psuedo-laws called 'regulations' ( difference is guilty until proven innocent as opposed to the other way around ) have been passed. Most have been tried in the real world and working solutions have been found to please all parties, both the tree huggers and the rapists of the land. This is where the real world of the mining environmental regulations is today. Everyone grumbles a bit on all sides, but they get along and co-exist.

My fear is that when gold prices have the attention of the press, that some person who lives in a city, breathing polluted air, throwing trash out his window, killing more animal and birds with his car, than miners ever did or will, while driving down highways whose course is straightened by huge highway cuts which scar the land far more than any miner ever did, drives into my front yard and tells me that I am polluting HIS environment and that HE is going to see to it that I change my ways with NEW laws! I pray that day doesn't come.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:07 - ID#57232)
Swing Chart! Logging off for the night.
sharefin: Thanks for the swing chart! I doubt that I can stay in the computer equities very long -- maybe a week or so -- I'm too much of a gold bug. Nice profit so far.

Part of the reason I don't expect a market crash earlier than this fall is because of the 'sunspot' effect. Another reason is the Oldman's comments that the market bull will not end without a real battle for a time. An interest rate hike would make me bail out of everything but gold equities in a hurry. One day regardless -- one of those swings on your swing chart will be the last one -- and the lock step indicator will be in synchrony for the last time.

By the way, did I mention that the Worden Brothers think that Japan is 'overbought' technically? Could be the final bottom for them. Depends on China, I think.

According to Gary North's most recent 'remnant review special report', the average Japanese has $50,000 in savings vs $4,500 for the average American. And -- the average American household has $70,000 debt ( the house, I guess ) . The next runner up is UK with $35,000 debt, Germany with $28,000, France with $28,000, Netherlands with $5,000, and Switzerland with about $2,000. Gary also said that US debt burdens of the $30,000 - $50,000/yr income household increased from 12% or so in 1983 to about 23% in 1995. Since this salary range is where about 43% of all US consumption occurs, this is especially ominous, given that interest rates have been dropping.

I do not know where Gary North gets his figures, but he has been generally reliable in the past, and they make alot more sense than the superficial debt figures of Harry Dent. His books would have been much more credible if he had honestly considered variables other than just the baby boomer consumption effect, and the 'S-curve'.

Good luck! Buy the way still have sp-500 puts that expire Dec 98, just in case.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:08 - ID#31868)
the grist of my tendons hangs upon the nails embedded in the tree of woe. There will be no confiscation, the children demand more of us, the FREEDOM BELL rings, and unto the good fight arrived the mightyhell became a zip-code for the evil, we cast them gleefully into it

the flesh fell from their bones and the light of day, the truth, polished the ivory, good men sat, having learned to listen, children played, their curiosity filled our hearts, we put down our weapons, but kept them close

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:12 - ID#342376)
@ aurophile and panda
I do have faith that things will work out but just as a correction is due in our markets from excess, so is a correction due in our way of life. EJ, where are you? Stuck on the highway with your Ox-drawn Chevy looking for whale blubber?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:14 - ID#267344)
Arden and all
Well said. I am going home with a few new ideas from all. Thank you. - c

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:16 - ID#57232)
Looking at the Swing chart pattern -- must stop posting!
sharefin -- whatever it is worth -- what I see is a weakeing of the rally, with a possible downturn like what happened several months before Oct 97. To me the pattern is not violent enough yet for a possible correction.

An alternative dx is more of the same for a while - since the Swing chart looks pretty tame. Any 'lockstep' patterns outside the computer stocks?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:16 - ID#373403)
Even a diehard goldbug/goldsmith such as myself is shocked and jealous over palladiums surge to the heavens.

I feel the need to diversify my 100% gold and gold mutual fund holdings. Since platinum and palladium seem to have made their moves, I think I will add some silver for diversification. Maybe Warren Buffet had a reason for choosing silver over gold.

What is the cheapest way to take delivery of bullion? What should I expect to pay the refinery over spot and what percentage for assay later when I sell.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:20 - ID#201238)
geologic environmental destruction
Panda - you are so right, but you have no idea of the scale! One of the beaties of my profession is to unravel the mysteries of the earth. Once done, if we apply what we see in the geological record to possibilities for today, the result is mid-boggling ! Imagine a tidal wave 3000 feet high! Imagine what would happen to world cultures as most are along coast lines. It has happened before and it will happen again. Our lifespan as a human is but the blink of an eye in geologic history. Imagine.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:28 - ID#22956)
PLat will
Palladium futures prices on Wednesday skyrocketed for a third
straight day on the New York Mercantile Exchange on continuing
uncertainty over the political situation in Russia.

"There appears to be a panic type of buying in the cash market,"
said David Rinehimer, director of futures research for Smith
Barney Inc. in New York.

Rinehimer said palladium buyers "are willing to pay up. There's a
limited supply out there, and people who are holding it are not
willing to let it go even at these price levels."

Investors are betting political instability in Russia will
continue to delay shipments of the metal to Japanese auto and
electronics makers. Russia, the world's largest producer of the
metal, has not shipped new supplies since late December.

Russian President Boris Yeltsin and acting Prime Minister Sergei
Kiriyenko have signed export decrees to continue shipments. But
the lower parliament, the Duma, has yet to approve Kiriyenko for
the permanent post. A third vote is scheduled on Friday, and if
Kiriyenko is turned down again, Yeltsin is threatening to dissolve
the Duma.

At the same time, export licenses are not expected to be issued
until May, and contract negotiations must be concluded after that,
raising the possibility that the metal won't reach manufacturers
until at least June. ( AP )
Export licenses to be issued in MAY!! that time POPall should be well skyrocketed......yum-yum. This bodes well for PGM's...if you are long....YES........OK. board the good ship

where is Ted??? and Monex Dude...gityersorrybuttbackhere!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:29 - ID#252127)

I'll bet that all the earth moved to build the highways is one thousand times greater than what all the miners produced since the begining of time and that the pollution caused by the autos using them give the smelters and other so called prime pollutors an equal fight. Then we demand transportation in vehicles made of things. Sad isn't it and I still try to recycle my wastes.
I know the mining industry is doing its best to right past oversights which have tended to hold first stage for the enviromentalists before other more gross oversights because it pays to find a whipping boy, even if that is not truly deserved.
Has anyone ever considered what highway construction has done to natural movement of surface and subsurface drainage and its effect on the environment?

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:33 - ID#210235)
rewriting Paradise Lost?

Good evening.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:33 - ID#255151)

The cheapest way I have found to own physical Silver is junk Silver coins. For example, one quote I just saw was $4430 for $1000 face value ( 715 oz. of Silver ) This works out to about $6.15/oz. The Kennedy halves are even better. The '65-'69 are 40% Silver. That is about 318 oz Silver. A quote I just saw was $1000 face value ( 2000 coins ) for $1944. This is about $6.11/oz Silver.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:35 - ID#307271)
Hx Dx Rx
Hx, Dx, Rx: My goodness! Aren't these familiar terms.

Hx: The XAU has punched the 200-day average without solid confirmation.

A contiguously surging DOW has cast a pall over this decisive move.

Many PM stocks have tested this 200-day average and are moving on.

Spot Gold has not kept the pace with XAU/Spot approaching .30.

Dx: Tentative long awaited Gold Bull.

Possible sympathetic Dow response in the PM market.

Rx: Buy More alla F*.

Wait for Pull Back, then Buy More.

Sell into Rally.

What's your call Doctor? Your patient's life may depend on it.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:35 - ID#31868)
an open invitation to Colleen, and family from SA...
when you arrive in NY, you and your family are most welcome, my home has no lockes or hobbes...

it would be a privilege to hear the laughter of your family

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:36 - ID#31868)
A hug the size of infinity to you!!!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:41 - ID#201238)
Jack, right idea!
But your scale for perspective is off, by a factor of at least a million!

The amount of earth moved in highway construction is millions of times more that that moved in mining.

The amount of poisons produced by automobiles is hundreds of millions more than mining.

More animals are killed in a few miles of highways than mining ever poisoned ( we all joke about roadkill, right? )

You see, the mining industry was just the big fat guy with his feet planted in the ground when the environmental war started. He was the easy target because everyone could see him and it obviously has nothing to do with themself!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:41 - ID#409160)
Auric @ Junk
Where did you see that quote for $1000 face. It's four hundred less than I was qouted today! Thanks

John B__A
(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:41 - ID#77133)
Equities Correction Tomorrow?
Both the S&P and NASDAQ 100 are trading about 3 points lower on the GLOBEX Futures. If there is indeed a follow-up correction tomorrow, it will be interesting to see how gold equities perform in comparison.

S & P 500:
GLOBEX Prices as of 04/22/98 10:30 PM Trade Date: 04/23/98

MTH/ --- SESSION --- PT EST ---- PRIOR DAY ----
JUN98 1135.80 1135.80 1132.80 1133.60 ---- -280 836 1136.40

JUN98 1303.00 1303.00 1295.25A1298.00A ---- -350 8 1301.50

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:43 - ID#210235)
And a big squeeze back to you, sir. A ( gold ) short sqeeze would suit me just fine, right about now.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:43 - ID#26669)
Clone, themissinglink and all, mixed post
Clone, IMHO Being a modified cladist myself ( if one must talk about theology of Darwinism ) I have a dim view of man's ability to harm anything for more than a split second of geologic time. Might like this link before making up your mind:

themissinglink: Silver is a lot of fun! One doesn't have to worry so much about every single grain of dust in the floor sweepings, they can afford to make bigger castings than gold ( like the anticipated 215 gram deer+sprue I'm trying to work up the courage to try ) and it allegedly keeps away vampires.

All: Golden dreams!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:45 - ID#31868)
A very dear friend has a web site, go look;

Richard is a splendid fellow...lifejackets in Papua..........NG.......

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:46 - ID#257136)
To Clone: Inb your 22:00 post you pose a question re: investing in mining stocks or recycling stocks
I suggest you invest only in recycling stocks.
As a purist, I can only advise another ( not THE another ) to do what feels best.
And of course when you lose your a!! due to the pitiful mismanagement of
environment by the current administraton, you can rest secure in the knowledge that you did the "right thing" according to your lights and your conscience.
And BTW, you can freeeze in the dark along with all the other good li'l treehuggers and other sycophants of the feel good regime!
Smoke and mirrors will not feed you for long, but enjoy it while you have it!

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:47 - ID#401237)
US Bonds have Competition

Wednesday April 22, 11:01 pm Eastern Time

Argentine mortagage bank places $220 mln Eurobond

BUENOS AIRES, April 22 ( Reuters ) - Argentina's state-run mortgage bank Banco Hipotecario Nacional ( BHN ) placed
Wednesday 200 million euros ( $220 million ) in Eurobonds in European markets, state-run agency Telam said.

The issue was placed at an eight percent interest rate in European Union's new single currency, equivalent to nine
percent in dollars, it added quoting a BHN communique.


(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:51 - ID#210235)
@dear a.j. and other friends
We are always so quick to jump on those who are looking at gold/silver as investments and haven't made a total conceptual leap from the environment in which they were raised. Don't be too quick to condemn, friend. We have lost so many who raised up their ideas for discussion but met only sarcasm and condemnation, when understanding and reason might have won the day.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:57 - ID#238295)
Does look like ANOTHER knew what he was talkimng about when he said gold would soon be trading in a $320-$360 range.

Geber Djafar
(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:58 - ID#377193)
Preacher - Why would you expect ABX to lead the pack in a gold rally? According to their earnings report yesterday they have sold forward about three years worth of production at an average price of $400.00 It would seem that they are locked into three years of being a high-priced stock ( p.e. of about 28 at 80 cents earnings per year and stock at $23.00 u.s. ) It would seem to me that unhedged stocks have greater potential.

One nice thing about these forward sales, they can only sell their production once, so those 10 million ounces are out of the way! I am looking forward to the day when ABX's sales at $400 come back to bite them in the butt.

(Wed Apr 22 1998 23:59 - ID#255151)
refer I have not bought from these guys, so I can't vouch for them. Also, the Web Resources and Classifieds at Kitco are sources. I have found that local coin shops here in Indy have widely varying prices, so it pays to ask around. Good luck!